USAGOLD Discussion - September 2003

The Invisible Hand

(09/01/2003; 18:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 107985)

PART II of an attempt at plagiarism and summarising by yours truly

DERIVATIVES

The flourishing on the stock markets at the end of last century of options and other derivatives was a symptom of the fact that in this society, which would be our society, most individuals think that from the moment you have a claim to a tangible thing, you possess that thing, even though there is no way in which that debt could by settled by the debtor through a physical transfer of that thing. Translated into gold terms, this means that so-called gold bugs are not interested in the possession of gold as a hedge in case of monetary disorder, but only in concluding wagers over the gold price in order to pocket the monetary surplus value. In that way, the bullion banks, who had learnt their mischievous behaviour from the central banks, came up with a fourth way to lower the price of gold. Knowing that more than 90% of the counter parties would be satisfied with a settlement of the contract in paper money, or the conversion of the obligation of the hedge fund into an obligation in paper money which involves only money and does therefore not influence the demand for physical gold, the bullion banks just needed to have enough gold available to fulfill the demand of the next real gold buyer. Only to be repeated again and again as the paper system produced another lower value for each new buyer/ owner. Eventually bringing gold to its plateau price today.

This gold market is a completely free market in the sense that the supply of those contracts is almost unlimited and is only limited by on the one hand nine times the gold which can be mined and by on the other hand the costs of mining under which the price of paper gold cannot (be allowed to) fall. The contracts have therefore been offered to anyone who was prepared to conclude such wagers concerning gold price movements and it was not difficult to sell three wagers that gold would decline for every wager that gold would rise.

As long as more than nine tenth of the counter parties were prepared to settle the contracts with paper money, no gold is being displaced on the physical gold market. The only influence it exercises is upon the increased supply of (paper-)gold so that the price of (paper-)gold drops.

Until the day that more counter parties rise who insist upon the gold being actually delivered to them and who are not satisfied with receiving (or paying - if a real lunatic gold bug wants to knuckle down the paper gold market, he can insist upon the gold being delivered to him at the contractual price even though he could theoretically obtain that gold at a lower price on the spot market) paper money. At that moment the paper gold market collapses as the physical gold is not available. The reader will remember the problems caused to the bullion banks in September 1998 when the US central bank had to bail out hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The reason why LTCM was in trouble was due partly to its gold hedges.

WASHINGTON AGREEMENT

Even the politicians realised that paper gold contracts are limited due to the fact that gold cannot be mined at a price below the mining costs. This explains why on Sunday September 26, 1999, 15 European Central Banks concluded the Washington Agreement on the sidelines of an IMF-World Bank meeting. By this Agreement, the politicians wanted to set limits to gold lending. The agreement recognised that gold will remain an important part of global monetary reserves and that the involved central banks will, apart from the sales which have already be decided, not sell gold in the next five years.
Following this Agreement the gold price skyrocketed from $268.4 on September 24, 1999 to $336,5 just before the New York opening on October 04, 1999, thereby bankrupting the gold mines Ashanti Gold of Ghana en Cambior of Canada whose contracts with the bullion banks failed to take a quick and substantial rise in the gold price into account. In one way or another those two mines managed to survive (the former as part AngloGold) and many of their hedges are still in existence, although Reuters reported on August 22, 2003 that the number of gold hedges worldwide was cut by 5.2 million ounces in the second quarter of 2003. Although hedging was cut on a worldwide basis, some Australian producers like Newcrest have increased their hedges at the behest of various bullion dealers, various selling requirements being part of the agreements between these producers and the bullion dealers. In other words, as their hedge books go more underwater and more toxic, the bullion dealers require them to sell more gold as the price rises. What a beauty and potential LTCM-like derivatives nightmare that could be down the road!
The ECB reserves consisted in 1999 for 15 percent of gold and were then, and is still being, marked to market on a quarterly basis. The Agreement expires in 2004, but will probably be renewed on stricter terms between more than the 15 original parties at the IMF-World Bank meeting in Dubai on September 23-24, 2003.

Since the trade balance euroland is, in contradistinction to the American trade balance, positive, it was expected that a rising gold price would support the value of the reserves of the euro and thus the euro itself. And what have the markets taught us? Whereas gold closed in New York on Friday September 24 1999 at $268.4, it closed on Monday, September 27, 1999 at $281.9 and on August 29, 2003 at $375.3 One euro was worth on those dates $1.04658 , 1.04299 en 1.09897, the dollar thus euro 0.956201 , 0.958785 and 0.909947. The gold price has thus increased from euro 256.64 over 270.28 to 341.50

Since the Washington Agreement entire gold operations at international financial institutions have been shut down with more rumored in the works. This reduction of hedging positions has helped lift gold prices. With the present low interest rates, it is indeed senseless for the central banks to continue to lend gold. Those low interest rates will lead within 24 months to inflation for the reserve currency, the dollar. Only this inflation can indeed lower the present debt mountain. This inflation will lead to a further increase in the price of gold which will make the refunding of the borrowed gold by the bullion banks to the central banks impossible. This will force the Federal Reserve Bank of the US of A to declare an official delivery moratorium for the bullion banks in the US of A. This political declaration in the US of A becomes then a market fact, and not a political fact, for the European bullion banks. This market fact enables them to reimburse the gold loans with paper money. The paper money which they have are euros, not dollars. The European central banks who have then lent out gold receive then euros instead of that gold, euros which they then keep in their reserves. At that moment, they know what to do with their superfluous dollar reserves. They buy gold with their dollars at high prices. By throwing dollars at gold, the value of the dollar drops. At that moment the dollar is broke and the euro the sole survivor and this survivor is the new world standard which takes the role of the failed (dollar) reserve currency. In the meantime the oil producing shorts will have been able to obtain all the gold necessary to refund it to the central banks, but the central banks will at that moment be satisfied with receiving euros to the effect that the oil producers will sell their oil for euro.

In Russia, the Middle-East and India, there is an increasing aversion against the dollar and is a search for a replacement under way.

The recent over-subscription in multiples of the IPO of a Chinese gold retailing company going public demonstrates that the gold fever is alive in China. Since early 2003 individuals in China should again allowed to possess gold, although at present, only licensed Chinese companies, mainly producers and banks, are allowed to trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange which opened in January 2003. In the summer of 2003 the Bush government then started complaining about China's exports and pressuring China about "revaluing" its currency its currency. Those afflicted with this gold fever, are investors who understand that in order to be an economic world power by 2012, China could very well accede to this world standard, Freegold. At that moment only physical gold will be traded as the vehicle gold was meant to be used for since the beginning, i.e. the natural vehicle for holding one's wealth. By the same token the value of paper gold will be reduced to nothing, and the value of the euro will increase quarterly upon the marking to market of its gold reserves.

The ECB will not define the euro like the old gold standard as a certain quantity of gold. Instead, it will use gold as a free trading financial reserve so that each increase in the price of gold will bring about an increase in the value of the euro's reserves and thus an increase in the value of the euro itself. This currency concept is closer to the tenets of libertarianism than a gold standard because of the exchange restrictions which inevitably follow a gold standard.

September 01, 2003

The Invisible Hand

(09/01/2003; 18:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 107986)

PART I of an attempt at plagiarism and summarising by yours truly

With Chinese Freegold from a reserve currency to a world standard

At the end of August 2003, the euro, although still above parity, was declining against the US dollar. The press was arguing that economic revival was arriving in the US of A. Europe would however still be slipping further into recession. Nowhere did the press however refer to the fact that 1.17 figure at which the euro started trading on January 01, 1999 against the dollar was nothing but a "nano-second" spurt, more similar to an IPO (initial public offering), relative to almost no actual goods trading. Another reason why this euro decline is no reason to worry for the European Central Bank (ECB) is that the euro wants to take over the role of the US dollar in international trade and wants to transform this role from a reserve currency to a world standard. What should a libertarian think of this? I repeat the question which this short paper tries to answer is: "What should a libertarian think of the euro?" The question is not: "How should I invest my savings?"

Until the birth of the euro, international trade was completely dominated by the US dollar. Since the end of the 19th century, the dollar was freely convertible to gold. Man had however since ages the craving to forge gold and to disconnect money from real gold. President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first to accommodate this craving in 1933 and he retained this convertibility only for foreigners. Americans were ordered to hand in all their gold. President Nixon knew even better in 1971 and he put also an end to this convertibility, then $35 an ounce, for foreigners.

The oil producers from the Middle-East could therefore obtain less gold than before with the dollars received for their oil. Out of love for gold, they were thus forced to increase their prices which caused the first oil crisis. The price of gold rose to over $800 up till 1980. Since then gold has fallen back to $230 and on August 28, 2003 it was sold for $370 at the closing in New York.

Why has the price of gold retreated like that? Is there not enough demand for gold, or, to view it from another standpoint, is there too much supply of gold? No, there is huge demand for gold. If this demand would be allowed have its effects on the price of gold, that price would rise dramatically and this would demonstrate the bad consequences of the policies pursued by the central banks. The central banks started therefore to look for a way to increase the gold supply so that the price of gold would decrease.

FOUR WAYS

The first way in which the central banks tried to influence the price of gold downwards was the outright sale of their reserves. But the central banks realised already before 1980 that gold sales didn't influence the gold price downwards. Their next idea was to convince from 1980 onwards the gold mines to sell their not yet mined gold. The argument given by the central banks to the mines was that they could in that way secure their future income stream. Those sale contracts have been concluded between the gold mines and the bullion banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. The contracts concluded by the former bank had in 2001 as their object every ounce of gold which would be mined in the coming two and a half years (many of those contracts are still in existence.) The bullion banks were prepared to conclude those contracts because the central banks guaranteed the obligations of the mines. This guarantee took the form of granting the bullion banks, who had concluded the forward contract
( = a contract for delivery of gold in the future at a price determined in the present,
a contract under which you agree to either take delivery (if you go long) or make delivery (if you go short) of the agreed amount of the commodity in a stated month in the future)
with the mines, a marketable claim to the gold in the central bank vaults for immediate delivery. The hedge against the obligation of the bullion banks to buy the gold of the mines on the futures market was thus a granting to the bullion banks of a property right to gold on the spot market (in the central vaults) entailing the bullion banks� right to sell that gold on the spot market

By doing this, the bullion banks were able to protect themselves against the risk of loss inherent in this futures gold market position by taking an equal but opposite position in the spot market. This is what hedging, which is a risk-management technique used to protect against loss, is about. Since the spot price of gold is determined by buying and selling on the margin, even a small change in aggregate physical demand could ignite a spike in gold, causing the price to go orbital and disembowel the gold shorts.

For the mines it became necessary to hedge against steep increases of the gold price because in that case, they, in theory at least, deliver gold, at the contractually agreed price which is much lower than the market price.

At that point, gold speculators entered the gold market as participants who, except if they are oil producers, have absolutely no interest in owning or selling gold, but have the money to take on risk -- buying and selling futures contracts in hopes of making a profit. These participants are on the one hand the hedge funds with whom the mines conclude contracts to hedge their obligations and on the other hand the oil producers and others with whom to bullion banks conclude contracts to hedge their obligations.

A third, and last for the central banks, way to hide the bad consequences of their policies, was for the central banks to provide their gold to the bullion banks at the ridiculous (but with the present low interest rates, which signify therefore the death knell of this carry trade, no longer ridiculous) interest rate of 1% pro annum. By selling this gold immediately in the open market and using the cash to finance equity investments, the bullion bank was assured to gain upon refunding the gold, which it had to buy back by selling the equity investments for a price higher than the gold to be purchased, to the central bank. The bullion banks therefore also had an interest in keeping the price of gold low and like the hedge funds, they started indoctrinating the public by saying that gold is no longer an investment vehicle.

R Powell

(09/01/2003; 18:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 107987)

Gains

+$2.50 and +$0.05 !
Oh ya, the +$2.50 is the POG, the nickle is silver

Gandalf the White

(09/01/2003; 18:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 107988)

GAB's Question !! <;-)

Sorry, GAB, I really have no knowledge of a SPOT Silver P&F Chart easily available ! SOMEONE most likely does keep such, BUT, because as I and all the Hobbits are Goldhearts, far more than Silver lovers, we do most our chart reading in GOLD! We do not eat with GOLDwear, but the silverware is polished once a week by the Hobbit that draws the lucky straw.
<;-)

Cytek

(09/01/2003; 19:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 107989)

The gold cartel - noplace to go , no place to hide

http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.aspIn the past, we've covered the technical means of determining where to take some profits during periods of appreciation.

The aggressive investor attempts to sell a portion of his position into strength for either of two purposes: first to profit and thereby mark down the original cost of the remaining two thirds of his portfolio to zero dollars; secondly to reinvest the entire amount in a constant up grade of his position, ending up with a more refined and larger portfolio at the end of the day.

In order to accomplish these objectives I will be constantly informing you of what I see in both the share and bullion markets.

Who Needs to Sell? Actually, only those that are using margin borrowings. All others sell for the above two reasons. This is important to remember so that you do not propel yourself into a mindset that invites sloppy trading tactics.

We in the Community have a view that says we are in a long term bull market in gold and its shares. This is the time to review that conclusion. If you do not agree, then you also need to sell. If you do agree, consider the following:

The Gold Community beat the cartel in gold trading and it can easily beat the cartel in gold share trading as well. We ran the commercial gold short sellers into covering Friday and today in non-US markets. This proves the fallacy of COT and reveals the fundamental weakness of the cartel.

We can put a stop to the cartel's professional market makers who have been trashing gold shares every 8 weeks. Here's a strategy to achieve that objective:

1/ Sell 1/3 of your share portfolio professionally and at optimum prices during periods of appreciation.

2/ Do not use market orders in buying and selling shares because you are now disciplined enough in your order execution. Never place more than 100 shares on a stop order. Use your stop orders only as an alarm clock for notification that a certain level has been hit.

3/ If you feel like buying or selling and are willing to pay up or sell lower, you simply limit your order at the best premium or discount that you will accept. Your broker has an obligation to do the best possible execution. Hold him to that obligation.

4/ And now for the cartel killer: "If you do not get the optimum sales on the 1/3 rule, simply do nothing."

The Gold Community can frustrate the cartel's professional market makers in the exact manner it recently killed the cartel on its short position. Last Thursday, the cartel tried to run Comex futures bulls by hitting the level where stops were expected to be. Each time nothing happened so all the cartel did was increase its short position. The end result was a panic run for cover on Friday and today in non US markets.

Now if you made optimum sales - or in a reaction simply stopped looking at the quotes - you would be amazed how the price structure of gold shares would remain strong.Because people practiced this in 1979-1980, the price of gold shares were higher when gold recovered from $450 to $725 than at $887.50. Think about that and you will see how such a strategy executed individually by Community members would end the cartel manipulation of share prices.

We beat the gold traders last week. We have beaten the ratio trade. Do as I suggest and we will end the manipulation of gold shares and the 8-week cycle dead in its tracks. COT is a fraud that became a self-fulfilling prophecy. You just proved that the biggest boobs in the gold trading business are the commercials unless they are able to bamboozle you.

Now you can get this bull market into gear without interruption by burying the professional market makers. I used to be a professional market maker myself and believe me I know what I am talking about.

Post this article on every chat board and every gold site that will accept it. Tell your friends how to finally defang the cartel and ask them to tell their friends. The Gold Community flexed its muscles last week and took the commercials out. Now flex your muscles in the shares and watch what happens. It is simple! Curtail margin, get optimum sales or do not sell at all.

Any margin trader with brains uses margin in establishing his original position but sells into strength to reduce all margin and finally the entire position. Anyone who holds full margin during share price appreciation is that pig I told you about that will always lose. If you must use margin, then be professional in how you handle it. Any other approach is the action of a maniac who is destined to go bust.

So my dear comrades in arms, here is my suggestion! Sell into strength and if you believe in gold as I do sell nothing into weakness. I always sell into strength in a gold share market. I always buy weakness in gold shares because I am a believer in the long-term bull market in gold based on both fundamental and technical evidence.

Do as I do and even in a declining market gold shares will exhibit an excellent price structure. When gold rises, the shares will move much higher each time than they would do otherwise.
What I'm asking from you today is to join with me and send the cartel straight to where they belong, a place where gold will only run in its liquid form.

With gold heading towards its maximum price potential, I want you to pledge the following:

1/ Sell whatever you chose of your position into strength along the over bought side of the power up trend line in the PUT up trending channel.
2/ If you don't obtain the optimum price that you deserve and that is technically correct, don't sell at all.
3/ Do not chase declining prices when selling a gold share.
4/ Never buy a gold share except during periods of weakness and when technically justified.

For the margin trader the following rules apply:

1/ Use maximum leverage when establishing a position and reduce the margin by one half if the price does not begin to climb within one week of assuming the position.
2/ Reduce your margin by sales along the over bought side of the up trending channel not waiting for a power up trend to take the share higher at an appreciating rate.
3/ Eliminate all margin by sales along the over bought side of the power up trending channel that takes the price out of the original up trending channel.

We have demonstrated already that we can beat the Gold Cartel of Common Interest in gold futures. We have ended the ratio trade. Do as I suggest, and we end the manipulation of gold share prices and the 8-week cycle.

This Gold Community is stronger than the cartel whose past successes have been based on bluffing rather than any particular skill. We will control the cartel if each Community member acts professionally.

When you own them, you are in the long term bull market in gold. You deserve to win. It is your birthright to win and you will win NOW!

MnDan

(09/01/2003; 19:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 107990)

Stalwarts

It appears that the lid is finally going to be pryed off this thing. Bittersweet.

Black Blade

(09/01/2003; 20:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 107991)

A Nice Start

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold is starting the month off with a nice gain so far. Spot jumped above $378.00 an ounce at the start of trade in Hong Kong. I would be fun to see gold hold at these higher levels as the shorts scramble about to cover. However, the Comex and Tocom have been known to change the rules of the game in mid-stroke when it pleases them as they have no concept of such thing as honor. Still, it would be nice to see the market run unhindered with a massive short squeeze.

As some analysts have been quite dismayed that gold has kept running higher with an extraordinary huge spec long position only to see their predictions of a massive sell off met with more buying. Several investment firms and portfolio managers have recently been recommending clients add a position of precious metals to their holdings. If a massive wave of short covering so develop it could get quite "interesting".

- Black Blade

Waverider

(09/01/2003; 20:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 107992)

GAB

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GHere's some Silver guano.....Go to Stockcharts.com and use the search box for continuous Silver. When the continuous silver charts appear, scroll down to P&F. Click P&F and then you can play with the charts. This is the one titled percentage. Cheers,
Waverider

Zhisheng

(09/01/2003; 22:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 107993)

$380 on the December Fututes Contract.

We could easily see $380 cash before London opens.

If the commercials fail, it will indeed be "interesting". Ordinarily one would think that gold would need to go up at least another hundred bucks or so before Comex changed the rules too drasticly. But if the commerials have to run for cover, it will be anything but ordinary.

There are a lot more people involved than just the Hunts this time though, and it likely would require more brass--"fascinating" is what it is.

mikal

(09/01/2003; 23:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 107994)

Spot gold

I'm seeing my source showing spot gold @ $378.80. (+ $3.50)
INO table above, hasn't changed for a couple hours or so. It shows a forward month's price incorrectly.

mikal

(09/01/2003; 23:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 107995)

INO Chart

INO table above just corrected. Now shows $379.00 for the forward month (active contract or month?).

Gandalf the White

(09/01/2003; 23:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 107996)

Sir Mikal

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=f&a=2That INO chart quote is LIVE "ask" price on this LINK !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/01/2003; 23:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 107997)

OOPS --- LIVE SPOT last price !!!

Not a forward Contract Month !
Last was same as the "ask" Price !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/01/2003; 23:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 107998)

INO SPOT chart atop Forum, agrees quite closely with the GB SPOT chart too !

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1KEEP JUMPING, SPOT !
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

Waverider

(09/01/2003; 23:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 107999)

Spot 'n Spike

Gandalf - just make sure that those pups have their helmets on when they hit their head on $380.00 at the NY open!

Black Blade - thanks for giving us a DMR today on a holiday. Safe and happy trails to you and I hope you don't miss too much FUN and ACTION here this week! Cheers!

Waverider

Gandalf the White

(09/01/2003; 23:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108000)

CONGRATULATIONS Sir BB -- Scratch one from the Unemployed Pile !

for today's DAILY "The Afternoon Gold Report" by
-Jon H. Warner-
Note: This will be my last Daily Market Report at least for the next several days as I will be in the field working on a project for a client. Until then - Gold, get ya some!
===
Back to WORK !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/02/2003; 00:29:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108001)

SPOT & SPIKE are all prepared, Lady Waverider ! <;-)

The Rumble in NY will start in about seven hours !
Get ready to ROCK AND ROLL !
Dec COMEX is HOLDING over Sir Z's $380. level at $380.4 at 01:55 NY time !
<;-)

Maverick1

(09/02/2003; 05:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108002)

G the W

My how quickly things change. I knew everyone was too bullish.

misetich

(09/02/2003; 06:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108003)

After Adjustment for Political Reality, Deficit Projections Get Scary

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12314-2003Sep1.htmlSnip:

You may remember something about a projected $1.4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years and dismissive remarks from the White House about how the numbers are unreliable. And there were reassurances from various gurus that these deficits aren't very big relative to the size of our economy.
............

But I've been back at work for more than a week now. So I read the whole report instead of just the summary........................Which I did. First, I counted the $2.4 trillion Social Security surplus, which the Treasury uses to offset its cash shortfall. Then I figured that the last three years of tax cuts will become permanent and that Congress will pass a Medicare prescription-drug package and stop the dreaded alternative minimum tax from hitting 30 million taxpayers. These changes add $3.6 trillion to the deficit. So by the time you're done, the total projected deficit is more than five times the aforementioned $1.4 trillion. Call it $7.4 trillion. And I'm being generous, assuming we spend nothing in Iraq starting Oct. 1, 2005.
................
For fiscal 2004, which starts in about four weeks, the budget office projects a $644 billion deficit. This would be 5.8 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product, which approaches the 6 percent record set by Ronald Reagan's 1983 budget deficit
*********
Misetich

The article writer (Sloan is Newsweek's Wall Street editor. ) does not address the "phoney" numbers of GDP boosted through the use of statistical mirages thus the REAL PERCENTAGE is MUCH MUCH HIGHER than the forecasted 5.8%

... further IF the US economy rebound does not materialize in creating jobs - and all indications are in will not - tax revenues shortfall can be further anticipated and ACTUAL expenditures to MUCH MUCH HIGHER than forecast ( always are)

...and lets not forget ANOTHER deficit (trade)....

all in all it does not bode well for the overvalued US $

If you are a holder of US $ investments how are you going to protect yourself?

...hint..hint (BUY PHYSICAL GOLD, BUY PHISICAL GOLD)

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Waverider

(09/02/2003; 07:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108004)

China defiant on currency rate

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm"China's central bank has ruled out a revaluation of its currency just hours ahead of a visit of US treasury secretary John Snow. Mr Snow is touring Asia and has made no secret of the fact that one of his main concerns is the level of the yuan, which is pegged to the dollar at a rate that boosts China's competitiveness in world markets."

Waverider: No suprises here in this climate of competitive currency devaluation.

Melting Pot

(09/02/2003; 07:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108005)

Render unto the Pope...

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2003-08-30&id=3450SNIPPET:

Under the constitution for Europe, the EU will have a "Catholic Caesar" presiding over the Protestant monarch. The former Belgian prime minister Paul-Henri Spaak once made a plea for �a man of sufficient stature to hold the allegiance of all people� and added, �Be he God or the Devil we will receive him.� The allegiance of the Queen's subjects is usurped by the demand for allegiance to the suzerain power; a spiritually unifying allegiance which is primary, for without the unity of the demos, the European vision will die. Accession to the constitution for Europe would finally confirm that the United Kingdom yields to the suzerain European Ecumenical Community � an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God. Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.

END SNIP:

�Be he God or the Devil we will receive him.�--Paul-Henri Spaak, former Belgian prime minister

And how will ye protect thyself from the ecumenical Caesar in an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God? Got GOLD?

mikal

(09/02/2003; 08:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108006)

Gold rising

Similar pattern to so many days.
One article today in the China Daily and another on the BBC speak of "firm" Chinese statements on the dollar and yuan.
What else is new? The Chinese are known for their hard-bargaining and will not concede until after negotiations are fully exploited to their best advantage. The most delicate terms, negotiated in closed session, await Bush, who will follow Snow into Asia to "ink the deals". The dollar index will continue to be volatile while rumors and speculation circulate.

admin

(09/02/2003; 08:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108007)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

New Stein.

Links to 'Updated Weekly, Monthly Gold Charts.'

MK's Forum Posts 'All in One Place'.

"Over the past 12 months, gold is up a little over 20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 11.5%

Gandalf the White

(09/02/2003; 09:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108008)

Thanks Sir Maverick1 !! I needed that ! <;-)

Maverick1 (9/2/03; 05:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 108002)
A flagon of COLD WATER in the face quickly brings one back to reality !
One step back, and now the SLOW charge to $390.
<;-)

(09/02/2003; 09:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108009)

Who Remembers This?? From the Gilded Opinion, Appears Prophetic Today

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Connolly.htmlDark Vision for the World Economy

by Bernard Connolly, Chief Global Strategist, AIG

In Bernard Connolly's
Dark Vision for the World Economy,
the new Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse are the
Financial Collapse of the G3,
Political Instability and Unrest,
Debt Repudiation and Default,
and Worldwide Inflation.

Gold may be the best defense.

Editor's Note: Every once in awhile an article comes along by a commentator/analyst who has found the key to a clearer understanding of the forces at work in the world economy. This article by AIG's chief global strategist, Bernard Connolly, offers that degree of insight. The picture he paints is an interesting one. Far from a world moving toward global world government and co-operation precisely orchestrated by the G-3 (Japan, Europe and the United States), Connolly describes a world perilously at odds with itself, fracturing along old pre-World War II fault lines, and heading toward a catastrophic inflation in all three nations -- a circumstance brought by their own inability to reconcile long-standing differences among themselves and the failure of each to come to grips with their own internal problems. In a world of three structurally weak currencies, gold, he says, will be the primary beneficiary because it is the one asset which stands apart from this governmental and central bank currency destruction. We would like to thank theminingweb.com and Mr. Connolly for permission to reprint this important contribution to the current analysis and we highly recommend that USAGOLDers take the time to thoroughly digest it. This article will be a source of discussion and support documentation for some time to come. Beyond that, Mr. Connolly provides some very convincing reasons for gold ownership on the part of citizens in all of the three G-3 nations. MK

--------

Includes links to this Forum's "Dark Vision" posting contest in June, 2002

Waverider

(09/02/2003; 09:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108010)

Global: Do Imbalances Matter?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030902-tue.html#anchor0"In all my years in this business, I've never come across such a worrisome and potentially lethal confluence of imbalances. For starters, they are global in scope. A lopsided world economy has never been so dependent on one growth engine � the United States. Over the seven-year 1995 to 2002 interval, revised figures now indicate that the US accounted for fully 96% of the cumulative increase in world GDP (at market exchange rates); that's nearly three times America's 33% share in the global economy.

This poses what could well be the crucial question for the macro outlook: Can the global economy continue to derive the bulk of its sustenance from the US? The answer leads to two key issues � America's own imbalances and the potential for the world to uncover a new engine of growth. Insofar as the US is concerned, I remain convinced that it still pays to look at America through the lens of a post-bubble economy. Most disagree, arguing that three-and-a-half years of post-bubble purgatory has been long enough. But time is not the point. Since early 2000, the US has gone through a mild recession and the most anemic recovery on record. Over that same period, America's net national saving rate has plunged to a record low, the household sector debt ratio has risen to an all-time high, and the US current account has gone deeper into deficit than ever. All this smacks of a US economy that is living far beyond its means, as those means are delineated by domestic income generation. Far from purging the excesses of the late 1990s, the United States has upped the ante on structural imbalances as never before. In my view, these imbalances are the real cost of America's so-called macro resilience. They also highlight a persistence of post-bubble headwinds that draws America's future role as an engine of global growth into serious question."

Waverider: An excellent read from Roach today - right on the mark!

CoBra(too)

(09/02/2003; 09:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108011)

"ABC of Gold Investing"

Have come across a post elsewhere stating that Amazon has ABC on its list as being around # 38.000 most bought books, though, when it moves towards the 100 it'll be a gold bull in full swing.

MK, thanks for distributing this great read freely to us USAGold followers.

According to your remarks today, Pierre Lassonde seems to start filling the footsteps of real giants. Mmh, from 450 to 6.500$/oz in a few weeks is a remarkable, if giant step, mentally. Still a wee bit short of A/FOA's 30.000, though getting there - and at that pace, who knows? ;>)

Regards cb2

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/02/2003; 10:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108012)

BULLION to build your base -- available at 1% over our cost, FREE shipping on 25 oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Paper Avalanche

(09/02/2003; 10:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108013)

The new "line in the sand"

It appears that TPTB have declared $375 POG to be defended at all costs.

Anyone find the announcment for the futures trading in India suspicious? Another vehicle by which to apply paper price "containment" for out of control physical gold demand?

Hmmmm.....

PA

Cometose

(09/02/2003; 11:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108014)

SILVER MINERS

Interesting to note today , that on a day when silver futures are being wagged and whipsawed that the MINERS are moving up.....Hecla up 9 cents Coere D'Aleine up 2 cents.(11Am mst)...I have to add that it has been in my thinking to regularly remind myself of a recent detail of the last Metals ROUT 79-80 that the there were more days during the upswing in the metals market that were down than there were days when it was up.....Tumultous volatility is being served up here in the futures markets( it would appear) to shake the weak fruit from the weak hands into the hands of strength....

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 11:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108015)

Paper Avalanche: paper gold trading in India...

Yes indeed, Avalanche, the GAB pointed out this danger a couple of weeks ago. Since TPTB see that India is the world's major gold purchaser, as Indians have a deep respect for gold as a divine symbol, and their culture holds the accumulation of gold as a central value, it is more than suspicious that the RBI - Reserve Bank of India - evidently part of the world "fraternity" of Central Bankers - now consents to the introduction of paper gold trading, for "hedging" etc., for which read: "To wean the people of India off of physical gold, and seduce them via the attraction of GREED, into paper trading of gold, where they will wind up with - papers.

By derailing physical gold purchases into paper trades, there will be more gold available on the market for purposes of holding the price down. Another factor of demand is cancelled, in other words. That is surely the objective. (It may take quite a while for paper to make inroads upon the culture based on physical gold, which is thousands of years old)

The War on Gold is, let's face it, thoroughly evil and anti-human, and is being waged by elements who, whether they know it or not, are enemies of the human race.

Nevertheless, the big paper lie of our times, is doomed to collapse. Reality, and gold, will prevail in due course. Of that, there can be no doubt.

The GAB

Paper Avalanche

(09/02/2003; 12:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108016)

Thanks GAB!

I lifted the following from the news story regarding the furutres exchange in India:

"Gold futures trade may start again after 40 yrs
SURESH SHAH

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 02, 2003 02:03:19 AM ]
MUMBAI: India may resume futures trading in gold after a gap of over 40 years by the end of the current month. Such trading was discontinued after the Indo-Chinese war of 1962 when the Gold Control Act came into effect.

This has become possible with the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) granting the permission for the first time to the Ahmedabad-based National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) for conducting futures trading in gold, silver, wheat and rice.

"We propose to commence futures trading in gold by the end of the current month in the beginning of Navratri festival,"

PA - what I find interesting is the sense of urgency that it must be up and running BY THE END OF THIS MONTH! Combo that with the news last week that the gold bullion security to trade on the London stock exchnage (similar to the one that is trading in Australia) may be approved within a matter of weeks as well and it leads me to the following conclusion:

Both India and the US are prior British colonies, both with long standing ties still to the British banking fraternity. What if the Britsih PTB know of some impending cataclysmic event (read default) on the exchange that has served well in the old colonies? Would they not a) put in place a vehicle by which their citizens could benefit from a meteoric rise in POG (the bullion security) and b) have a ready replacement for the collapsed exchange in their other prior colony?

The always neurotic PA.

Socrates964

(09/02/2003; 12:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108017)

Waverider

Groan! I do disagree with you about Roach being right on the mark.

He is still peddling this argument about the US being the sole source of growth based on $-denominated growth. This confuses fluctuations in exchange rates with real growth in output, and is the sort of thing one expects to find in an anti-European rant on the Heritage Foundation website rather than the considerations of a supposedly serious economist. (well actually, I've never lost money by assuming that anything coming out of Wall Street was intellectually suspect).

Note that this wonderful growth is for the period 1995-2002 - i.e. before the Euro started its ascent.

By the same token therefore, we have nothing to worry about, since the new engines of economic growth will be France, Germany and of course...Iraq, whose currency has appreciated stunningly against the greenback. So there you have it, all it takes to generate a new cyclical recovery is for Bernanke et al. to print greenbacks and turn Europe into an instant economic powerhouse by pushing up the Euro.

And as soon as China revalues, we'll be firing on yet another cylinder. Economic management is dead easy, isn't it?

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 12:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108018)

Paper Avalanche - India and paper gold

The sense of urgency does come through.

Why now? Why so soon? Why attempts to introduce a Stock Exchange traded gold security issued by a gold fund, in the U.S.? I have also read that such a security is soon going to trade in London.

"Where there's smoke, there's fire."

Something is indeed brewing. Time will disclose the nature of the "gift".

The GAB

Paper Avalanche

(09/02/2003; 13:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108019)

GAB

Agreed, based on the feverish activity by the financial community to get all of the pieces to the global gold puzzle in place by the end of the month, we are in the precipice of something big in the next 30-60 days IMO.

PA

White Rose

(09/02/2003; 13:09:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108020)

The stuff is hitting the fan

I have been thinking that a big event is coming. I have been looking at something else. The silver stocks are very high today compared with the drop of 12 cents of the paper price.

The separation of paper and physical (here I am using silver stock prices as a proxy for silver since there is so little silver to buy) has been taken as a sign that a significant event is close at hand. Of course, I recommend gold as the perfect investment; especially physical gold purchased over a year ago.

I have also noted reports that Bush is having lunch with Greenspan, and the drop in prices for bonds.

What other signs are people seeing that something is up?

Federal_Reserves

(09/02/2003; 13:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108021)

Rates vs Stocks

Re-linked.

Further upward moves in stocks will accompanied by rates.

Stocks surged as rates fell, then paused while rates caught up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TNX&d=c&k=c1&c=^spx&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l

Looks like they linked back up now.

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 13:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108022)

Socrates964: another "intellectually suspect" concept....

is "GROWTH".

Why on earth must we all focus on "growth"? Seems like this is the modern-day equivalent of going to Heaven. "Growth" is a neurotic fixation among "economists". Growth, as an end, always ends up in excess, in deformations and excrescences. Fiat money enables it.

I think it's an utterly false social objective, a word used for social control. The pseudo-capitalistic version of "Five Year Plans", a substitute for talking about affairs of real importance to humans.

What about objectives such as: being debt-free; earning your way in life; paying your bills.

Happiness is stability, not growth.

Whenever the GAB hears about "growth", he tunes out and turns off.

The GAB

Socrates964

(09/02/2003; 13:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108023)

GAB

Would tend to agree with you - unfortunately most human beings tend to be insatiably greedy and don't realise the error of their ways until all their true wealth has been destroyed.

Anyway, to more mundane matters, S&Ps are banging against the 61.8% retracement at 1022.

Talking to friends in London, the impression I get is that all the hedge funds have had their arms twisted into going long of equities, as they can't take the heat from their clients, who are complaining that long-only funds are outperforming. When this baby turns....

Jacob Marley

(09/02/2003; 13:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108024)

GAB - you ask (partly re: India): Why now? Why so soon?

http://www.bis.org/review/r020326c.pdfNow? Apparently, this is a good time.
So soon? Is it?

The link will take you to a speech by Dr. Reddy, Deputy Gov of the Reserve Bank of India, at a WGC conference nearly 18 months ago. While the whole thing is rather insightful, of particular interest may be the back part of the article.

To paraphrase the paraphraser the other day - "nothing in politics is by accident or chance" - these things are thought about for a long time, and all the time.

Good day, good Sir.

DryWasher

(09/02/2003; 13:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108025)

SPRINGBOARD FOR DISCUSSION

OUTLINE FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD MONETARY SYSTEM:

1. ONLY GOLD IS MONEY. By International agreement GOLD would be recognized as the only form of money and all governments, corporations, and individuals worldwide would be subject to this rule. The monetary unit of measure would be the Gold Gram being equal to one gram of fine gold.

2. All governments, and even private corporations, would be permitted to freely mint coins provided they meet strict international quality requirements. All such coins would be marked with the weight, in grams, of the contained fine gold.

3. National governments would be responsible for the quality of coins minted, and in circulation, under their jurisdiction and would be held accountable to the international community for maintaining that quality.

DISCUSSION:

As I see it the above proposed simple system would be almost totally self regulating and would put an end to our current problems of inflation, currency wars, trade balances, etc as well as limiting development and government spending to reasonable and sustainable levels.

Also, as I see it, putting the gold back into the hands of the people of the world, rather than in the vaults of governments, would go a long way toward putting the people back in charge of their lives and of their governments.

I fully understand that no chance at all of anything like the above happening at present exists, but if the entire system crashes, as many people believe it might, then perhaps something along the above lines just might then become a real possibility.

What I hope to accomplish with this post is to start a discussion about the implications, problems, advantages, disadvantages, etc. of the world returning to a true PHYSICAL gold standard as suggested above.

All comments, flames, etc welcomed.

Agingfast

(09/02/2003; 14:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108026)

Typical homeowner better money manager than U. S. Treasury?

The typical homeowner refinanced his/her mortgage when interest rates hit bottom but the Treasury said, "No thanks, we don't need any cheap 30-year money." You gotta love it.

Cometose

(09/02/2003; 15:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108027)

India Gold Futures Exchange / Gold Revolution

There's a book about much of the shenanigans that produced the Federal Reserve Bank and What it's result has been , connections to the IMF / WOrld Bank...and the wonders that they've done around the world....The CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND /EDWARD GRIFFIN

THE People of the Orient are far more spiritual than those from the OCCIDENT and their view of the West may very well derive from a belief that the fruit a tree Produces determines the type of tree that it is .
Now if you look at the WEST ; it is rooted in a BIBLE TRADITION steeped in Judaism and Christianity.....has prospered and industrialized and succumbed to GREED and AVARICE .......and now it looks like its teetering on finanicial oblivion....In a balanced society the Spiritual underpinning in the foundation of the SOCIAL AND MORAL FABRIC should permeate all
Facets of SOCIETY and dominate the fruit produced thereby....Spiritually , the western tree has grafted into roots of GREED AND POWER.....

THE rest of the spiritual world (particularly Hindu's BUddhists and MOSLEMS) views the western world as corrupted and the whole is an evil tree....it's producing rotten fruit......especiall in the venues of politics and banking

TO a large degree, we have born this image in the eyes of the EASTERN CULTURES as a result of the acts of the FEDERAL RESERVE and IMF : Around the world the IMF is well known...
for its' acts that have been instigated "For the GOOD OF MANKIND"....

and now we have another blockbuster nation of over a billion people opening a gold futures exachange right on the heels of the GOLD EXCHANGE opening in CHINA>....

(who knew?)
IT IS A GOLD REVOL(t)UTION......and perhaps a spiritual revolution against sinister stinking situation running out of control.

I also suspect and have heard talk in the last year of a huge COUTERFIETING COMSPIRACY which is going to come to light.....perhaps in a most compelling proof....
Counterfieting : the unauthorized printing of dollars....
behind which there is no backing or value...

should be very intersting to follow the unfolding of this GOLD REVOLUTION as it is being called.....and see the dominoes fall....

I sense more being revealed to us in the near future that has perhaps been sheilded from our view......Looks like a concept war in banking is on the way .....
perhaps many "have not" institutions being swallowed up by the HAVE institutions......

and now in this game of musical chairs I WONDER......

WHO HAS THE GOLD>>>>> and in what banks do they ( the gold bars) live....

Paper Avalanche

(09/02/2003; 15:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108028)

@cometose

"I also suspect and have heard talk in the last year of a huge COUTERFIETING COMSPIRACY which is going to come to light.....perhaps in a most compelling proof....
Counterfieting : the unauthorized printing of dollars....
behind which there is no backing or value..."

Your mention that there is a rumor of a counterfeiting conspiracy about to come to light struck a cord with me this afternoon. I was watching the Travel channel last night and they had a show on at 9:00 pm CST about the Federal Reserve Bank. At the very end of the show they had a two minute piece on the discovery of the "super note" (which is a counterfiet $100 bill) that was being introduced into circulation internationally by some unknown government. They took great pains to point out that the presses used to make the super note were the exact same as those used by the Fed and that only another government would have the where withall to pull off something of this magnitude. Are they possibly hinting at, oh, I don't know, Iran? That would be a terrific justification for a) starting the war with Iran that W needs to get re-elected and b) having something to blame the devaluation of the dollar on.

Food for thought.

PA

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 15:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108029)

Jacob Marley: thanks for the link!

It confirms my worst impressions.

The deputy governor of the RBI's speech at the WGC is spoken in the best financial-speak. What the speech is all about, is how to gently and oh-so-cleverly, take the Indians gold from them, for the greater efficienty of the financial system and for the benefit of "a capital starved country like India which cannot afford to utilize foreign exchange on a commodity like gold." (Note: gold is a "commodity" according to this guru)

The important entities in the speech are the financial sector and "the country", which means "WE who rule don't appreciate the activity of little unimportant individuals who sabotage our efforts constantly by looking out for their best interests, even to the extent of engaging in smuggling and thus evading OUR rules."

This RBI type was evidently trained in financial-speak at Oxford, Cambridge or University of London. Intellectually VERY suspect.

A rational individual with some knowledge of true economics, i.e. Austrian economics, has to "translate" what this guy is saying, into plain English from financial-speak.

Our Deputy Governor of the RBI has evidently made a brilliant career for himself by means of catering to world finance and its LIES.

The best hope of Indians, lies in the fact that this era is just about over, and their gold - low carat though it may be (all it means is that they bought gold at a higher price!) - is still IN THEIR POSSESSION, much preferable to the "liquid RISK-FREE government securities" which they have the nerve not to accept. Securities issued by a Government which quite recently was on the brink of nuclear war with neighboring Pakistan. How is that for "risk-free"?

Reading this tripe makes this GAB feel sick.

The GAB

steady

(09/02/2003; 15:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108030)

stuff

im no graet thinker, but i do know one thing that all investment vehicles denominated in fiat script are at risk. pretty simple.
even simpler solution use only what small portion of the current system you have to. the rest to physical stuff gold/silver. see the way i see it everyone is a negative unit of account for themselvs but for the banking system they are positive revenu streams. it wont be till individuals become positive( ie no debt ((no revenue stream to the financial institutions))) that an effect will be felt by the bankers. being postive means taking assets minus liabilities and liabilities are anything denominated in paper assets - gold assets. to get to know the true size 'shape ,and weight of your wealth,everything else is just an illusion to get you to feel comfortable in your revenue generating level for the banks.
if u own a house you still have to subtract your monthly/yearly luxury tax ( property tax ) untill we become positve units of account we will remain the bankers bitch 'subject to there whims and fancies'shackled to there corrupt ,use our script under threats of jail time ,while we crank the presses up at full speed where one tiny spark may set the entire house on fire, system ,where keyboard missles are launched daily to corral currency and even gold exchanges(and you thought computer speed was increasing for your pleasure . NOT it he who executes the trades fastewst wins. be aware of keyboard missles being fired daily inthe paper pushing gold slacker pits , still not at regular hours two years latter the comics cause they are a fing joke,paper covers paper but fire refines gold to its illustrious roll and black velvet status that it recieves.
while im at it it wil be what country that gets its citizens to won gold will win as the weight of the many(masses) will out weigh the few(central banks) so what govet will protect its revenue generating streams.its people by getting them to purchase gold,first will win as he who gets gld first has to give up less latter when t comes time to use it.
I think someone once said its better to be a year early than a day late, ie have patience if not for you then for your kids, if not for your kids then for your family clan. this is how wealth was passed down generation to generation, this is how names/families became respected.
signing off while waiting patiently for what has happend to occur.
someone once asked me why i only follow gold/silver and i replyed everything else revolves around it. know gold and you know the financial world even though they try to obstificate the truth.
one day they will start to talk about the dirham .
one day they will start to talk about the historical ratio between gold and silver.when the ratio is back to historical norms 25-10 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold
then we will know ts distribution time. untill silver is in 30 to 1 range it is a screaming long term buy>
gold and silver
HONEST MONEY
for HONEST PEOPLE!

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 15:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108031)

Dry Washer: your proposals....

May not elicit much discussion, because most (if not absolutely all) of those who post and lurk at this Forum, are in total agreement with what you offer.

Cometose: as you can see from my previous post, I consider that the Futures Exchange in India is a very negative development. Another COMEX, to bash gold in the most pro-gold country in the world. That's about it.

Paper Avalanche: if we are being told about counterfeiting (by which is meant, producing garbage money by someone other than the Fed) it is for a purpose. To blame Iran, or perhaps N. Korea, sounds like a possible explanation. Or if you really want to get neurotic, why not blame it on ...Germany? "They never really stopped being Nazis" etc.

In Ingsoc ("doublespeak"): "Sanity is neurosis", added to Orwell's "1984".

The GAB

Simply Me

(09/02/2003; 16:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108032)

re: counterfeit dollar news

Found this in Google News search, but the link no longer works.
Risky business leading N. Korea to ruin
Daily Yomiuri, Japan - Aug 21, 2003
... In 1997, he was accused of attempting to use counterfeit US notes when he tried
to exchange dollar bills he had been sent from Pyongyang to purchase some ...

a clue?
Simply

Ag Mountain

(09/02/2003; 16:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108033)

Whenever the GAB hears about "growth", he tunes out and turns off.

That's a bad turn. Without "growth" the finely interacting parts of our modern civilization would soon cease to function. Specialization is our species' most miraculous calling card, especially if/when each participant has the freedom to pick and pursue his area of interest. "Growth" is like the spring rains for the, well, growing season of our society. It provides a margin of safety when the water table is too low for new roots. Without it, many critical interactions may fail and the whole crop is lost.

Unless we're prepared to go back to a more primitive tribal existence with a greatly reduced global population and reduced average standard of living, "growth" is worthy of attention. I'd rather be a very skilled baker than a jack-of-all-trades. I wouldn't know where to begin if I had to shoe a horse and grow my own wheat.

Buena Fe

(09/02/2003; 17:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108034)

DryWasher (9/2/03; 13:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 108025)

IMO you are descibing in part the post civilized period dubbed by certain folk; "the millenium", during which a certain "Anointed One" is in charge.

This is after He has beaten the @&%$%#^%$ out of certain hellish hordes.

May you all prosper

CoBra(too)

(09/02/2003; 17:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108035)

Snow's Visit to China

Not succumbing to the joint attack on the Yuan (Renmimbi)to revaluate by John Snow (Sec.Treas.) and Horst Koehler (IMF)
China stood its ground.

"There won't be any change in the exchange rate just because someone is visiting China," a spokesman for the People's Bank of China, the central bank, told Reuters.

We have an expression in Austria: "Da k�nnt ja jeder kommen"! ... almost not translatable, though I'll try in the sense of - "who the hell does he think he is"?

... and what in hell does he hope to achieve? ... except trying to keep up the pretense of confetti having value, if only for a li'l while longer ... Oh, well, that's why it's called a Snow Job! cb2

Paper Avalanche

(09/02/2003; 18:18:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108036)

@GAB - 108031

I believe that the importance of the counterfiet story is to allow the gubmint to blame the coming hyperinflation on a straw man, a "THEM" that we must hate and continue to fight in the never ending war on terrorism. This would be a far better route to take than to admit that the impending hyperinflation was knowingly and intentionally perpetrated by those entursted to oversee the nation's money supply, Le Fed. If they are able to pin it on a certain country, all the better if they can get some expansion of the war so as to a) increase the odds of re-election or b) stimulate the economy during a period of stagflation.

It just makes too much sense.

PA

mikal

(09/02/2003; 18:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108037)

INO table

I see the INO table reset again, asit does every six hours. Thus, the 10yr bond is shown as -8/32 when in fact it was down almost 2 by the close of trading. The 10 yr rate moved up .147 to 4.601% today.
Also, I notice gold and the dollar are moving up in overseas action.

mikal

(09/02/2003; 18:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108038)

@PAvalanche

While your scenario is interesting and possible, I feel a more likely tactic would be to undermine the dollar standard using all available means. This clears the way for a new global monetary system by providing many intractable weaknesses as justification for a total revision. Yahoo had a headline tonight, for example, stating that Iraq could cost the US $26 or $29 billion/yr. Obviously that stretches the system even more. When there are enough stories to stretch the dollar standard credibility from enough corners, it will be torn and returned to the BIS or elsewhere for a new one.

Cor Tauri

(09/02/2003; 18:49:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108039)

GAB re: India DryWasher re: springboards

GAB, I also was disappointed by the scam to securitize the Indian peoples gold. But I think perhaps this will not amount to much. Most of that gold is 22k and around the necks ankles and fingers of the women. Now I know little about India. My wife and I are americans. Cultural perceptions and attitudes can be enormous, but I think we can set all of that aside and consider instead the differences between women and men. I have recently started to make jewelry. Fine and Sterling silver so far. But I want to work in gold. My wife has several 22k bangles that were made in India and she desires more. She expects that I will produce these for here. We have, for our income level, a considerable stash of gold and silver. I have encountered no resistance to taking some of the silver rounds and melting them to form wire and sheet, to form into various things. I have several times suggested that I might melt a Krugerrand and pour it into a rod so as to run it through my roller mill and make perhaps bangles. Upon her face appears instantly a look of alarm, and it becomes apparent to me that I will not be melting any of our gold to make jewelry. I explain how for the time taken to make an item, a gold piece brings a far far higher return. The male concept of return on our investment. She mentions that I have said the dollar will fall, and dosn't see the need to "mobilize" our gold. I suggest we might buy more gold with the proceeds and she points out that a sale is not assured. I have not dreamed to ask if I can melt one of her bangles. It would be most unwise. The male mind seems to want to do something with gold, make it more liquid or sell it at a profit. I wonder if perhaps a womans mind tends to want to make gold less liquid, gold coins are good, rings and pendants are better, you melting it and selling it is simply out of the question. In our household, I am the goldbug, at least I was at first. I suspect that once you give gold to a woman, you will be allowed to see it frequently, but you will never get it back. Call it "deep storage" or "black gold", call it not yours anymore.
I don't think the women of India are going to be in mad rush to crush their exqusite gold jewelry and exchange it for an interest bearing note, or a speculative contract of any sort. Oh, and I suspect that the men of India don't really count when it comes to gold, they buy it, lots of it, but it quickly becomes "not theirs anymore".

DryWasher, I wish you had seen the discussion a year maybe two years ago. It was exactly the discussion you propose.
It was on the "Ideal" monetary system. It ran on and on, and termpers got very short. The primary concept that emerged that made an impact on me is: I want to build a factory, I can't pay for it outright. May I borrow some gold to build this factory. If I can borrow gold, do we not now have fractional reserve banking." It became apparent to me at least that the main problem is not a lack of a gold standard. We could use sea shells, cow chips, or pretty paper notes. The problem seems to end up being the idea of fractional reserve banking. I have 100 sea shells in my account and the bank lends 90 of them to you. I think I have 100, you think you have 90 and the bank thinks its got 2 suckers. If there is one concept that is most destructive, it is perhaps the greed of the bankers. It might be in the archives, it would be very good for you to read it. You will learn alot about yourself and what you believe. Two very powerfull minds took opposite sides of that discussion and cut through all of the fluff to the real issues involved. Both utimatly left the forum. Gold binds us all in common here, but there are some profound differences in mindset regarding the proper role of a monetary system in human affairs.

Best Regards

LeSin

(09/02/2003; 18:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108040)

Saudi Arabia & Russia - "Draft Agreement on Cooperation" - Alliance Changes & New Face of OPEC?

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20030902120738.shtml
Gov't approves cooperation with Saudi Arabia

RBC, 02.09.2003, Moscow 12:07:38.The Russian government has approved the draft of the agreement on cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia in the oil and gas sector. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has signed a corresponding decree, the Government Information Department reported.

The document envisages the simplification of procedures of creating joint ventures to implement projects in the oil and gas sector, the search for facilities for joint investments and the exchange of new technologies. The governments of the two countries will create a task force for cooperation in the oil and gas sector.

The agreement will be signed in Moscow today during a three-day working visit of Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Ibrahim Naimi, sources in the press service of the Russian Energy Ministry told RBC.

Cavan Man

(09/02/2003; 19:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108041)

NATO who?

Large, slow wheels keep on turning.Belgium stands firm over EU military HQ plans

Belgium insisted Tuesday it is going ahead with plans to open a new autonomous European military command headquarters near Brussels next year, despite opposition from key EU states including Britain.

Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg -- the EU states most fiercely opposed to the Iraq war -- proposed the idea shortly after the conflict, following a mini-summit in Brussels at the end of April.

The plan for a new headquarters at Tervuren, just outside the Belgian capital, was immediately lambasted by leaders from more US-friendly EU states who said it would double-up with NATO.

Diplomats from countries opposed to the move have said they hoped the idea would be quietly forgotten.

But Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt said Tuesday it is still firmly on the agenda.

"The most controversial point... remains that of Europe's capacity to plan and execute European operations autonomously. That is the European military command headquarters," he told a meeting of Belgian ambassadors.

"It is for me an absolute necessity given the existence of autonomous European operations" such as that deployed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the last few months, he said.

"The European Union must be up to planning and deploying such operations. Such an ability will be put in place next year in Tervuren. There cannot be the slightest doubt on this matter," he added.

steady

(09/02/2003; 19:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108042)

GOLD

uh um uh im almost speachless ( two posts in one day) as the french angel, our host unbelivabley gave up for some worhtless paper and even delivered right to my door, is much larger than i imagined, and tre letters on the side of the coin are interesting. the smaller philharmonics are cool to. thanks for being there ( here ) usa gold when i needed you .
gold get u sum so it will be there when/if you need it!

GAB i thought u where a nector bat . one that polinates aguave. for without bats no tequilla.

Cometose

(09/02/2003; 19:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108043)

Campaign to Reelect

I believe that Mr Bush is 50/50 right now.....
The Iraqui business is very ugly in multiple ways and it's getting worse by the day .......it's making him look terribly culpable as a hypocrite and a rogue......THere are not doubt some new suprises coming that will probably be more unsettling to his campaign bid for reelection, but if he goes looking for more trouble in IRAN , I'd wager his ratings will fffffffffffffffaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll precipitously....

The same instability that causes GOLD to go up and Market indexes to go down ....and causes administrations to print money and stimulate economies by going to war......cause inflation .....lets go back and take a look at 76....Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter.....I remember Jimmy Carter was running on the BORN AGAIN ticket not unlike our current ?Christian? president...things went from bad to worse inflation and economy wise.Then Jimmy got in troulble in the Middle East Hostage crisis ...perhaps a little too weak...on the side of assertiveness and diplomacy skills and now we've got GEORGE who is a little overcooked on the agressive side methadrenalin wise ready for WWIII ....this porridge is a little too hot for the American people....
and we have got the economy ready to go into inflation mode in two years on the next president....who probably also won't survive their first term in office...looking better all the time....

Clink!

(09/02/2003; 20:01:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108044)

Growth

I, too, am somewhat perplexed by the almost Grail-like quest towards growth. I think I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that I could understand the necessity for it in a country like the US which has an expanding population, but is maybe less critical in Europe which has countries with stable or even declining populations. If this were the case, does someone know the rate of population increase in the US ?

But there are two other factors which occur to me (and I must admit to being on shakier ground here - I never took Economics 101). The first is that the economy works on borrowing money which is then paid back from the profits of the business which is created - plus interest. So in order for there to be enough money to pay the principal plus the interest, there needs to be more money, and therefore a bigger economy (assuming that the velocity of money stays more-or-less constant).

The other is that unless you have an expanding economy, how the heck do you expect the PTB to enjoy the beneficial (from their point of view) effects of inflation without it being masked by a growing economy. Screw around with the 'inflation correctors' and other hedonic nonsense and you can make even zero real growth look like we're all going somewhere.

Ag Mountain, I hear what you say and agree with the sentiment, but I don't think that improvements to standards of living necessitate an increase in GDP. As an example, my first PC (back in '86) cost about $2000, which would get me something infinitely better today for the same nominal value. The natural tendancy in manufacturing is to reduce cost or increase functionality (no-one would introduce a new process that didn't have a beneficial effect on one or both of these). So who needs growth ?

C!

PS. Nearly forgot. It was mentioned earlier today that 96% of the world's growth 1996-2002 was in the US. But I didn't see mentioned how the additional debt to finance that growth was distributed.

PPS. Still on growth (sort of). I think that JM Keynes gets a bad rap for suggesting deficit government spending (as in 'We're all Keynesians now'). As far as I have seen, he suggested this only until such time as the country was out of its crisis and could be run on a balanced budget. It's later economists (and politicians) who have re-interpreted this to mean that PERMANENT deficit spending is OK.

Druid

(09/02/2003; 20:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108045)

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

A blast from the past...
"I ask you now: " Is it hard to believe or hard to understand"? When it comes to money it's usually both.

Know this: "gold transcends human valuations thru time and life". . Take your time on this one!

Gold is now caught in a crossfire of world thought. The traders are viewing it as a commodity and trying to make money on it's moves using various paper trading vehicles. Their opinion of the market is flawed because the "real value buyers" would never deal with these people or let anyone in that circle know they are buying gold as "money"! The major buying and selling is between CBs, nations, merchant banks, "the super rich" and the hordes of small buyers in forgotten places. That is one of the small many reasons wall street hates gold, they are not part of the real action. Comex is a side show!"

Druid:...for those who trade paper. I'm a gambling kind of person but man is this environment to uncertain for yours truly. I'll just watch from the sidelines and reach in and grab a sheckel every chance I get while the getting is good. If there is a reset in world thought, there just won't be enough time(unless of course you are in the inner sanctum) to point and click your way to safety.

Physical Gold, make it easy on yourself.

turkey hunter

(09/02/2003; 20:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108046)

Russia buys $'s to buy gold??

http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2003/09/02/49735.htmlsnip......

Commercial bank dealers believe that the main reason for the increase in the dollar rate is that the Central Bank has not hindered the ruble's weakening. Some experts even say that they do not rule out the possibility that the Central Bank has bought dollars today to increase its gold and currency reserves after they dropped considerably last week. ...unsnip....

......
If they did buy $'s to buy gold we could see a spike in gold this week...

steady

(09/02/2003; 20:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108047)

counterfits

re counterfiting,
rember new money is due out this year(supposedly) hints are starting to be dropped,as to why its coming.

contrarian

(09/02/2003; 20:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108048)

snow job

Amazing how the Snowman goes to China, begging for a currency devaluation, and all he gets is a smile and a slap in the face. Very prophetic, I think. I think it's obvious that it would come to that.

And illustrative of the steadily changing state of affairs--a country recklessly spending and printing its way into poverty, and unable to help itself, all the while losing its power.

And the Chinese will smile as they extend us the rope to hang ourselves with. Which we gladly accept.

The idiocy of our leaders is unbelievable. But it seems it's fated to be.

Dollar Bill

(09/02/2003; 21:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108049)

Hail Ruratanaia, while it lasts.

"...We leave the final word to the Financial Times":
---"The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in Asia is unsustainable. The appetite of foreigners to fund US consumption can last quite a while but not forever. At some point the well of finance will begin to run dry, putting downward pressure on the dollar, raising long term interest rates in the US and damping growth."---

"China and Japan effectively constitute the "fuel" that has allowed the US motor to continue to run. But if either of these countries decides to slow down the supply of economic gasoline through their tolerance of ever expanding deficits, the game is over."

Dollar Bill

(09/02/2003; 21:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108050)

*>*............+

Dry Washer, our esteemed poster is right, Oro and Another did cover this at length and it is worthy of discussion now.
My 2 cents might be, a strict gold system has at least one drawback, there are so many billions of us now, and we do need to be able to print up money to aid the neediest around the world.
Rush limbaugh is flabberghasted that republican big boys are all for our present upside down new improved infinite debt economic model. He is way out of touch, he thinks we stand a chance of returning to past "sensible" financial behaviour.
What could be more sensible than getting the rest of the world to make things for us on thier credit card? For as long as it lasts, American homes will continue to be filled with more and more things produced by the rest of the world.
What are they going to do? Come here and claim our houses?
When you know there is no tomorrow, why not spend like there is no tomorrow? Pressing ones advantage is only too human. The war against terror gets all the attention, but the war against the euro, gold, the yen(late eighties),
all the other non reserve currency countries ensnared in debt, against the almighty dollar is the most interesting war to watch. Every poster here is more informed than rush on finance.

Great Albino Bat

(09/02/2003; 21:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108051)

STEADY: thanks for the fascinating info on bats!

One never knows just what is going to show up on this great Forum. So, bats pollinate agave? I am so proud! Tequila is marvellous hooch, best thing for the flu, and just about anything else that ails you. And we bats are indispensable in its production. Well, well! "Negra Modelo" ain't bad, either.

As to "growth" the "Holy Grail" as someone below has called it; let us not confuse real growth with what is said to be growth and is only a by-product of credit expansion, a.k.a. inflation.

Real growth is a product of savings, and in turn produces prosperity. It comes slowly and with great difficulty.

I have stated before at this Forum, that the world is really going backwards, through malinvestment, and that our world is living like a spendthrift that is going headlong into debt to maintain his lavish expenditure. Evidence of this is surfacing in the increasing problems the Welfare States of the world are facing with promised pensions to retirees. The alternative is, either keep 'em working to 82, or inflate. Ask Schroeder.

Cor Tauri: keen psychological insights regarding women's attitude toward gold! Amusing, too. If women ran this world, I'm pretty sure we would not find ourselves in such a horrible mess. I am all for queens, they make great rulers. 90% of the job of building a family falls on the woman. Women can very well run empires too, if they stay away from Harvard and other places of intellectual decay.

Be sure and "buy the dips" on gold!

The GAB

Black Blade

(09/02/2003; 22:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108052)

JOBS: LIARS, DAMN LIARS & STATISTICS

http://www.nypost.com/business/4672.htm

Snippit:

* The experts expect Washington to report on Friday that 10,000 new jobs were created in August and that the unemployment rate held steady at 6.2 percent. Those would be the first new jobs created since last January. But the statistical margin of error for the new jobs survey is plus or minus 156,000, and plus or minus 0.2 percent of the unemployment rate. In other words, 10,000 jobs are meaningless from a statistical point of view.

* The way the unemployment rate is calculated was changed back in January, when it suddenly fell to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent in December. That decline didn't reflect any improvement in the job market, just a change in the way the government takes its count.

* The government says it gets its new job count by surveying 300,000 businesses. But the participants are not selected randomly or scientifically. And there is no way of knowing how many of these companies reply truthfully to the government's request.

* The average length of unemployment is now 19.8 weeks. It was 12.8 weeks in February 2001. The current level is the highest since it reached 20.4 weeks in January 1984.

� The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks is 1,959,000. Back in January the number hit 2,036,000 - the worst since 1993. As comparison: Back in February 2000 the number of people unemployed for 27 or more weeks was just 708,000.

Black Blade: There are several more but these are among the more interesting. Unemployment is rising but ya just gotta love how the data can be massaged creating the illusion that the economy is somehow improving (at least on government paper).

Black Blade

(09/02/2003; 23:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108053)

China defiant on currency rate

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm
Snippit:

China's central bank has ruled out a revaluation of its currency despite a visit from the US Treasury Secretary John Snow. Following his meeting with officials from the central bank and finance ministry on Tuesday, Mr Snow said it was "critical" that China moved to a "flexible currency". Kong Quan Foreign ministry spokesman "There won't be any change in the exchange rate just because someone is visiting China," a spokesman for the People's Bank of China told Reuters news agency. But Mr Snow said he told officials that it was in China's own interest to have a more flexible exchange rate. "It's critical that they move to a flexible currency because one sure way to build in adjustment problems in an economy... is to have open capital flows and a rigid exchange rate," Reuters reported Mr Snow as saying. "We expressed our view that it is in China's interest to have a more flexible currency system and it's in their interest to continue the process of opening up capital flows, in and out, reducing their controls on capital." The Japanese support Mr Snow's plea to China. In Tokyo on Monday, Mr Snow and Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said they agreed to encourage, but not pressure, China to let its currency appreciate. "I agreed with Secretary Snow that China should let the yuan float," Mr Shiokawa said, following their meeting.

Black Blade: Snow got snowed as expected. One has to wonder why he wasted his time or maybe it was just a taxpayer sponsored holiday to the Far East for Mr. Snow. Everyone knew the Japanese and Chinese were going to dictate terms to Snow as they hold all the cards and Snow holds nothing at all. Still he probably got to travel and see the Great Wall as well as other sights at US taxpayer expense. Now it's up to the Fed to print dollars like there's no tomorrow to combat this dual menace in the Far East. Bill Clinton's and Robert Rubin's "Strong Dollar Policy" has come home to roost.

TownCrier

(09/02/2003; 23:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108054)

Here it is -- A Special Monetary Discussion

http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
DryWasher (9/2/03; 13:55 - usagold.com msg#: 108025)
"What I hope to accomplish with this post is to start a discussion about the implications, problems, advantages, disadvantages, etc. of the world returning to a true PHYSICAL gold standard as suggested above."

Cor Tauri (09/02/03; 18:49 - usagold.com msg#: 108039)
"DryWasher, I wish you had seen the discussion a year maybe two years ago. It was exactly the discussion you propose. It was on the 'Ideal' monetary system. It ran on and on, and termpers got very short. The primary concept that emerged that made an impact on me is: I want to build a factory, I can't pay for it outright. May I borrow some gold to build this factory. If I can borrow gold, do we not now have fractional reserve banking? ... It might be in the archives, it would be very good for you to read it. You will learn alot about yourself and what you believe."

----------------

Expecting the topic and unfolding discussion would prove timeless, I fortunately decided at the time to capture the many inputs, which you may now find conveniently assembled in a thread of discussion at the URL given here.

As stated in the introduction, "This discussion took place beginning February of 2000. It was joined by many fine-thinking individuals who touched upon several important and unique aspects of the interrelation of gold and the monetary system. We hope you gain new perspectives from this convenient collection of this most remarkable discussion."

Enjoy.

R.

Black Blade

(09/02/2003; 23:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108055)

After Adjustment for Political Reality, Deficit Projections Get Scary

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12314-2003Sep1.html
Snippit:

Let's look at the figures that emanated from the Congressional Budget Office last week but seemingly vanished into the haze of late August. You may remember something about a projected $1.4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years and dismissive remarks from the White House about how the numbers are unreliable. And there were reassurances from various gurus that these deficits aren't very big relative to the size of our economy. A fiscal food fight that seems strictly Yawn City. Pass the suntan lotion, dear, let's roll over and bake our other side.

But I've been back at work for more than a week now. So I read the whole report instead of just the summary. By law, the budget office has to assume that existing laws expire as planned, and that no new programs are added or subtracted. This report, however, includes numbers that you can use to adjust for political reality. Which I did. First, I counted the $2.4 trillion Social Security surplus, which the Treasury uses to offset its cash shortfall. Then I figured that the last three years of tax cuts will become permanent and that Congress will pass a Medicare prescription-drug package and stop the dreaded alternative minimum tax from hitting 30 million taxpayers. These changes add $3.6 trillion to the deficit. So by the time you're done, the total projected deficit is more than five times the aforementioned $1.4 trillion. Call it $7.4 trillion. And I'm being generous, assuming we spend nothing in Iraq starting Oct. 1, 2005.

Black Blade: This is similar to a couple of other reports projecting humongous deficits. I think these guys are just a little over optimistic on their projections. The pressure is definitely building. The US dollar is looking very weak now with soaring current account, trade and budget deficits as far as the eye can see. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary John Snow is found on his knees desperately the Japanese and Chinese communists not to "eat our lunch" with currency market intervention and currency pegs. Unfortunately for him he has absolutely no leverage and is operating from a position of weakness. Yet the "competitive currency devaluation" scheme is getting a bit long in the tooth and soon it should be obvious that all currencies are fundamentally weak � period! That pretty much leaves Gold and Silver as the only viable currency.

otish mountain

(09/02/2003; 23:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108056)

Counterfiet Discussion

The counterfiet story may just be a fabrication to introduce to the masses the acceptance of the new currency.
With open arms.
At the same time raise no suspicions of ulterior motives by the government.
Blame and finger pointing at anyone of many nations on a list somewhere, even the war on drugs.
Once accepted by the public through our fine media and introduction is proceeding, move up the redemption time table.
Presto! 6% GROWTH in the 4th Quarter

(shy) otish

slingshot

(09/03/2003; 00:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108057)

Midas Crusade

The audience still showed signs of concern but remained calm as Sir M.K. requested. Gandalf stepped out upon the stage. All was forgotten and every eye was on the Good Wizard. Moving to the center, he did look about the castle walls. Anticipation instead of fear filled the air and Gandalf would not dissapoint them. Raising his right arm toward one of the towers, a loud boom was heard and Golden Smoke Rings floated into the air. As perfect as the ones when he smoked his pipe. The rings passed through each other as they rose into the air. Pointing to the second tower Silvery Arrows burst forth and they too passed through the center of the ring as they drifted directly above the crowd. Then all forms of fireworks filled the air and the dark heavens were illuminated as never before. You could see Gandalf's face glow with enthusiasm as the people
let out ooh's and aahhs at each presentation of light. This fabulous display continue for some time ,but that small as compared as to what he was to show all.
When the last of the fireworks diminished and still standing center stage, Gandalf reached out as to take hold of some object. There was space between his hands. Whispering, he spoke some words and in the heavens above a cascade of falling stars began. So many stars fell that the light was a bright as the display of fireworks. Then a light appeared between his hands and began to glow. The light grew brighter and Gandalf stepped back. This orb of light grew and then began shooting beams of light into the air. High above the castle walls these lights turn into floating objects. Some having even smaller ones that revolved around them. In the center was a yellow ball of flame. Each object took its place and rotated around the yellow ball. Blue,Green,Red, large and small found their proper place. Some had rings around them while others move fast and slow in their path. Then these spheres became smaller and smaller and stars started to fill the night sky.
Swirling and swirling and the people almost became hypnotised at its beauty. In an instant, a flash and Golden Stars rained down on all to disappear above their heads. The people cheered and the August Festival would continue till morning.
Cougar removed his hand axe from the body of the assasin and wiped the blade of his axe on his clothes. Returning it to his waistbelt. Sir Black Blade ordered the body be taken below to the dungeon. Those that came to help did so,leaving the two alone.
How did you know, Cougar? asked Sir Black Blade.
He knew the castle, said Cougar.
The two grasped hands in friendship.
Gandalf exited the stage and was met by a small boy of the age of 10 or 11.
Gandalf, Gandalf, the boy cried. Gandalf looked down.
What was that? What did that all mean? he said. Gandalf smiled and answered. The Universe my good lad and what is your name? asked Gandalf. Galleo, the boy answered.
The merryment lasted throughout the night.
The morning would bring other concerns for a Flag Of Green comes to their door.

Slingshot-----------<>

Storytellers Note: Thank you Gandalf The White, for your help in writing the GREAT DISPLAY OF LIGHT.

slingshot

(09/03/2003; 01:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108058)

I am not afraid!

I purchased both gold and silver today!

I pound my sword against my sheild.

FREE GOLD! FREE SILVER!

I will not be denied!

Slingshot--------------<>

slingshot

(09/03/2003; 02:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108059)

Times Getting Tight

Tell me about your coin dealers. Looks like I'm in a time zone here. Well, fellow Goldbugs.
Let me tell you of my travels today. How about silver ounces at $5.60 and $6.35 an ounce. Gold ounces at $24.00 over spot? Feeling the Squeeze? You bet! Gone are the days of $5.00 silver and below $300.00 gold. Did the dealers budge? No Way! Easy days are over. Its the smart guys buying now and Joe Sixpack has not come on line.

Disclaimer: I have acquired my core of PM's due to the information given freely at USAGOLD!

One dealer made a point, Wait till the Bigshots find out they do not have what they think is in their 401k.

Slingshot-------------<>

slingshot

(09/03/2003; 03:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108060)

Come on Goldbugs

Dollar at 99.14 and Gold at $372.30.

If they abandon the strong Dollar and any hopes of recovery is for the Dollar to go to 72-75. What would be the price of Gold?

Slingshot-----------<>

silvercollector

(09/03/2003; 03:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108061)

Since there were several posts linking China's firm currency position AND in the sake of keeping the playing field somewhat level......

http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3376804snip:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China and the United States agreed on Wednesday that the yuan should eventually float freely, but Beijing resisted calls by the U.S. treasury secretary to speed up the process, fearing it will worsen unemployment.

China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, in comments that struck a conciliatory note but broke little new ground, said the yuan's value would eventually be determined by market forces.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, under pressure at home to push Beijing into a revaluation to save U.S. jobs, said he was heartened China was working toward a free-floating currency.

"On the currency issue in particular, I was encouraged to hear a reaffirmation of China's long-standing goal to move toward greater flexibility," Snow told reporters in Beijing.

Socrates964

(09/03/2003; 05:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108062)

Slingshot

Hard to give you a straight answer, as is a moving target based on inflation.

Evidently, if this gold market has any force, then it will retrace the big move down from $850 to $250. On this basis, we have to think about .618 and .786 targets, which are around $620 and $720 (these are rough figures).

My feeling is that central banks will manage the decline of the dollar. A decline in the index - which is basically the Euro, to 72, is a 38% appreciation of other currencies (Although note historic support around 78-80). Since gold is unlikely to be subject to such trade competitiveness pressures (once it clears $400 to $450, I can't see why the cabal would want to control the price, as the shorts/hedgers will be history), I expect it to appreciate by a multiplier of this, probably more than 1 and probably less than 2, based on past behaviour. If we take 60% as a round number, then you have a figure of around $590.

This evidently assumes that the rest of the world colludes with the US in keeping the plates spinning in the air. If they don't, then we'll see hyperinflation and gold prices in the '000s.

Having lived under hyperinflationary regimes, I can tell you that you probably have more purchasing power with gold at $600 and moderate increases in the price level than you do with gold at $5,000 and galloping inflation. If the latter occurs, then you could have gold at $1m/oz, although a Big Mac would cost you $1,000.

People who haven't experienced hyperinflation tend to have the bad mental habit of thinking that paper money has some absolute value. It doesn't. Everyone on this site should start thinking about their net worth in gold bars. If you think metrically, it's nice and easy, as a kilo bar is worth $12,000.

E.g.

WRONG: He has a net worth of $1.2 million
RIGHT: He's worth 100 kilos of gold.
(ALSO ACCEPTABLE: He's worth 40,000 barrels of oil)

Socrates964

(09/03/2003; 05:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108063)

China

The more I think about it, the less sense it makes for the Chinese to devalue the Yuan until after the dollar has collapsed or ceased to be legal tender for commodities. It doesn't matter that it can't spend the money in the US - as long as it can source raw materials from the developing world and pay in dollars (which will be much more gratefully accepted than yuan, since the exporters probably need them to service their own dollar-denominated debts)
it makes sense to accumulate as many dollars as possible.

Given that they also subscribe to the 'idle hands make mischief' doctrine and have enormous amounts of cheap labor, it makes much more sense to run a 'operate at full capacity and adjust the price to clear the inventory' strategy rather than a 'raise prices and increase revenues per sale' strategy.

Note that in the 1970s, the Arabs were in a position to buy the world. In the 1980s, the Japanese were. Because of cultural barriers, neither managed to exploit the opportunity very effectively. I would bet that the Chinese, who are excellent traders and businessmen, will do a much better job.

Tate

(09/03/2003; 06:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108064)

China will keep Yuan pegged to USD

Let's not be naive. China never been friendly with USA. Every political conflict they stood on opposite side of USA. China has global ambitions to become superpower. This is her best time. At best they will negotiate about Yuan forever or until dollar will be no more. Take your pick. China been in politics long before US existed. As long as China goods are purchased for USD around the world and it can be exchanged for raw materials they will keep Yuan pegged to USD. Where was free trade invented in the first place?

Clink!

(09/03/2003; 06:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108065)

On their knees ....

As BB said "Meanwhile Treasury Secretary John Snow is found on his knees " in China. We are likely to see similar a little closer to home with another Secretary as Powell goes to the UN. Frankly, I'm surprised that they even dare to talk about that at this juncture. After all, the support wasn't exactly in massive evidence before the invasion, why should it be there now ? I suspect the rest of the world thinks things would be much safer if the US bankrupts itself.
I read a scary statistic the other day - half of the total military spending in the entire world is American. And I don't think that number included loan guarantees aand direct aid to other countries to buy US arms.

21mabry

(09/03/2003; 07:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108066)

China

I belive I read somewhere that chinas U.S. D holdings are enough to pay off their foriegn debt.My classes at school started last week,I have a foriegn language requirment I took chinese and had my first class this week.It seems a strange language in which one word can meen several diffrent things depending on voice pitch and tone,but also it seems once you know the language it is much simpler than english.When one goes into our school library one can always find the chinese students studying many american students I know never go to the library.The chinese seem willing to do what it takes to get ahead.My language Prof. who is chinese said any american who wants to can go over to china and get a job teaching english.He said people in china will stop americans on the street and ask them to come to there home and read an american newspaper to them and they will pay and feed the american for this.21

21mabry

(09/03/2003; 07:17:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108067)

(No Subject)

Please pardon the spelling mistakes of my last post.I think I am getting the flu..21

Robert

(09/03/2003; 09:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108068)

He's worth 40,000 barrels of oil

or 100 Kg of gold. This is a good comparison. However, if given the choice, I would prefer to own 40,000 barrels of oil instead of 100 Kg of gold. Oil is a non-renewable asset which we deplete at a exponential rate as if the end of the world is near. The supply of gold on the other hand is increasing at a steady rate of roughly 2000 tons per year. Moreover, gold mined many thousands years ago is still around which means that we do not have any real use for gold. In 50 years there will be much more gold in storage than today, but it is unlikely that there will be any significant amount of oil avaiable on the market. Today 1 ounce of gold buys roughly 10 barrels of oil. Once the oil is gone, no amount of gold will buy a barrel of oil. We can not eat gold, but we do need oil (or other fossil fuels) in order to produce and distribute food.

Paper Avalanche

(09/03/2003; 09:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108069)

Out of the wood work they come when gold starts going up

eom

PA

(09/03/2003; 09:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108070)

Saudi Crown Prince Makes Historic Visit to Russia, Focuses on Energy

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=9/3/03&Cat=2Νm=018.

Zhisheng

(09/03/2003; 10:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108071)

China

@21mabryTaking up Chinese: good for you! You have imagination and guts. For the average American speaking only English, it takes about three times as long to reach proficiency in Chinese as in, say, French or Spanish. For this reason it is hard on Chinese teachers---not a large fraction of the students in their beginning classes persist in the program.

But the language is so rich: not just the tones and the characters, but the mental requirements. A Chinese acquaintance of mine said they have found that, while speaking European languages requires use primarily of the left side of the brain, speaking Chinese requires use of both sides of the brain. This is one explanation for the fact that it is more different for an occidental to learn Chinese than for a Chinese to learn English.
....................
It is interesting that Chinese looked (look) at gold as the archetype of all metals. Nearly all characters representing something involving metal have the gold character as a constituent part.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/03/2003; 10:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108072)

BULLION at one percent over our cost! Why pay more elsewhere?

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Shipping costs waived on 25 ounces.

Gandalf the White

(09/03/2003; 10:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108073)

Interesting COMEX data ! <;-)

Dec 03 GOLD Contract (GC3Z) PROGRESS of Wednesday 9/3/03 at HIGH NOON NY
Open $371.9 HIGH $375.8 low $370.9 LAST $375.2 CHANGE +$0.9 Volume 44045 --- AND
YESTERDAY's Prior Settlement was $374.3 WITH OpenInterest of 194,050 <====== NOTE !
<;-)

Ag Mountain

(09/03/2003; 10:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108074)

A friendly wager for Paper Avalanche, the sharp-eyed carpenter

I'll bet 100 kg of gold AND 40,000 barrels of oil that this Robert's surname is NOT Mundell. But as a lightbulb or a bell is the symbol of inspiration, he'll at least be a dark horse for the No Bell prize.

Zhisheng

(09/03/2003; 11:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108075)

Up into the Close!

Nearly a buck higher than yesterday.

The big shorts must be a bit disgusted. Not much bang for their bucks today. THESE long specs do not appear to be pushovers.

Renny

(09/03/2003; 11:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108076)

gold holdings

the man says:

"I now suggest that subscribers put at least one-third of
their liquid assets (not counting their home, their
business, etc, just the liquid assets) into gold coins and
gold shares."
Richard Russell 8/31/03

Now does this mean 1/3 of liquid assets left AFTER previous
purchases of gold or 1/3 of liquid assets INCLUDING your
previous purchases of gold at whatever different $ amounts
you may have paid??

Renny

21mabry

(09/03/2003; 11:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108077)

(No Subject)

Zisheng you are correct ,on average only 40 percent of first year chinese language students return for the second year.They are thinking of dropping chinese to save money.I just hope I can get the second year class in before they do this.In fact there is a movment on campus to drop all foreign language requirments.A mistake in my opinion.I suggested to the proffessor fertile recruiting grounds may lay in the buisness school.Can you imagine the options a buisness school grad who knows chinese would have.21

TownCrier

(09/03/2003; 12:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108078)

Another timely suggestion from a friend by email

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlA few weeks ago a friend highlighted a particularly relevant passage from the Gold Trail, and has done so again. He called this one to my attention yesterday. It certainly resonates with much that has transpired in the past two years and with much that people are now coming to think and say.

I hope you enjoy reviewing this blast from the past as much as I did. (More available at url above)

R.
---------------------------------------

FOA (10/9/01; 10:05:48MT - usagold.com msg#117)
PIZZA,,,, Bronco's,,,,,, Tonne of Yellow Metal,,,, and USAGOLD: Ha Ha,,, a gold advocates dream come true (ssssmile)

Background for everyone

All through out this period bullish gold traders have lost their shirts trying to bet on the price of gold. It wasn't until around 1995? or 1996? that these same traders even began suspecting that the price of gold was manipulated. As years turned into decades, hard money traders plunged their savings into our gold markets as up and down cycles drained their leveraged gold wealth. All the while thinking that the highs and lows, that were killing them, were just the ebb and flow of paper prices representing the fundamental demand and supply of physical gold. With Mises-like faith they knew, someday, the currency inflation that has driven our financial markets and economies upward, would meet its end; finally taking their leveraged gold position to the top. It didn't happen then and it won't happen now; not as they are playing it! Period.

Remember, this writing is coming from one of the longest running (now ex.) "Hard Money Socialist" anyone has ever seen!

Without mentioning any names, I can remember when some of today's most avid supporters of the manipulation cause were shouting down, not only Another's voice of reason to buy physical, but anyone else that suggested manipulation or a "political thrust" was controlling the paper price.

Today, countless gold people around the world point out that gold is a manipulated item. While being on the right track, they are still using the wrong perception to grasp the dynamics of these markets. This lack of perception is what keeps them from positioning themselves and other gold people correctly: positioned to gain wealth when a stake is finally driven in the heart of this paper monster.

The efforts by most are focused in one direction; to once again make our paper gold markets reflect the real rarity and actual fundamental value of physical gold bullion. While my heart, support and courage goes out to all gold bulls that strive for this end, it's chances of happening are the same as having government moneys return to being backed with gold: zero chance!

This grip on physical prices, that paper trading has, is only going to be changed because dollar gold derivatives no longer work. Not because some form of private lawsuit, world disaster or private coin buying is going to redirect investment flows. Only an official government change away from supporting their currency with paper pricing will do it,,,,, and don't expect the USA to be at the forefront of this move.

---------------

Lost in all the confusion is the distinction between investing in the price of gold and investing in gold itself. Perhaps 90% of all the investing in today's worldwide, dollar settled, gold market is done in this first way mentioned. Yes, the market is structured, contractually, to settle in gold. However, in practice, in norm, and in past legal precedent, it is accepted that paper gold trading is meant to only capture the price movements in gold while ceding, what could be, controlling physical trades and their price setting function to other market areas.

Obviously, this is the way it all started, years ago, with the physical trading and its fundamentals dominating the lesser paper trading. But the market evolved with the paper contractual trading becoming 100 or more times the size of the physical side. But everyone already knows all this, right?

What doesn't seem to be obvious is the "why for" the paper market grew so large. It grew to dominate because world wide dollar expansion reached its "non hedged" peak. In other words, the dollar's timeline was ending as its ability to produce non price inflationary economic gains came into
sight

In order to push dollar holdings further, international players needed and purchased "paper financial hedges" to balance their risk. Within their total mix of derivative hedges were found "paper gold price hedges"; modern gold derivatives. The important thing to remember is that these positions are not and never will be used to demand physical gold. They are held to buffer financial and currency risk associated with holding any form of dollar based asset. To work these items don't need to really perform "dollar price movements" in the holders favor as much as they are present in the portfolio to act as insurance stickers.

In that truth, these paper gold positions act like FDIC insurance at our banks. It can and will manage only a small determined portion of bank runs,,,,, not a full scale failure of the banking system. In a real full banking failure we would all get, perhaps, 80% of our covered $100,000 and 10% of the rest.

The same is true for these gold position's performance; real gold delivery along with true price performance, matching real bullion trading, would be only for the very few. For that matter, an actual functioning paper gold marketplace would be for the very few, too! But, in the same way a bank account owner understands the credibility of FDIC insurance when times are good; the international dollar asset owner will not grasp that modern paper gold hedges cannot be allowed to work until after a real serious price inflationary run begins.

For the first time in this portion of the dollar's timeline and our lifetimes, such an inflation is about to show its face!

==================

While so many of our gold bulls salivate at the prospects of some player calling for delivery and driving the gold derivatives market to the moon; it ain't gona happen! Our world of dollar based gold derivatives has grown so large and become so integrated into supporting (hedging) international dollar assets, the central banks will band together to crush any delivery drive.

This is in the ECBs intrest as I will explain in a moment.

If some big player said he was going to take 100 million ozs out of the paper gold market, the Central Bank systems would just order him to trade out for liquidation only and go to the cash market to buy his gold. Don't think I'm confusing Comex positions and their rules as being different from the rest of the world gold market. What works on comex works everywhere when the system is at risk. The controlling governments, who's domain Bullion Banks reside in, would, could and will force those holders of bank busting positions to simply cash out for the good of their system.

By the way; not only does a liquidation market send baby gold bulls running to sell, also, the BBs would be selling enough additional paper to temporally send gold down $100 bucks so our boy would trade out with a little less cash (smile). Then he would find an opposite "premium" spike in the cash markets, waiting for his order.

I hope my little dose of reality drives some sense into our gold community. This is the reason Another says only fools try to buy their gold all at once on the paper markets. "NOONE" is going to exercise their "corner" until the dollar based gold system is changed.

-------------

OK, thanks for waiting, MK, I'm getting to your point. (smile)

Mike, while I'm writing this, I see gold selling off (silver more so). Once again, we see where the paper based trading has plenty of selling power and completely dominates the physical fundamental markets. How may postulated, even just a few years ago, that with the fed expanding the money supply by a year to date "one trillion"; that paper gold could not reflect this inflation? This only further confirms that this form of market "hedge" is failing to function for its owners. Changing are coming, my friend, changes are coming! Back to the story:

==================

Paper gold derivatives became a major force in allowing this last, end time, demand for dollars and subsequent surge in it's value. This is why Another said it would run way up, even while being inflated, before the end would come.

Only now are we coming to a point where theory meets practice as Alan Greenspan now is and must hit the presses. This forced printing inflation, currently happening, is the very precursor to a lower dollar exchange rate, rising real price inflation and the very first destructive test of paper gold derivative hedges. As price inflation rises the US will protect its own banks and the short paper gold portion of these positions they created. They will sell all the paper gold they can in order to stop these hedging positions from functioning and breaking their writers.

On the physical side, the US wants and needs a higher price as they ship real gold commitments to help balance our sinking ship. So, the dollar supporting paper gold position we have sold for years will now block our ability to gain some ground with high US gold reserve prices.

In turn, Euro factions will also sell into the paper gold dollar system to help further discredit its hedging function in the face of dollar price inflation. Now to the good part:

----------------

If you are a major international dollar asset holder, watching this evolving transition, how would you act? Remember, not only is paper gold not rising to reflect real dollar price inflation, even physical gold cannot react because the dollar based market, as it currently functions, keeps physical subject to paper discovered prices.

With the world dollar gold markets completely locked from rising and performing their portion of a hedge function for your portfolio,,,,,,, because, if they rose trillions would be lost by the writers,,,,,,, what asset based currency would you escape into.

How about a currency that wants you to redirect your fiat hedging to using outright physical gold instead of paper gold leverage? A currency, with a stated free gold pricing policy, that will allow your physical hedge to function in place of that locked dollar gold market; and function in a currency supporting way.

They say: We understand that there will be an inflationary transition form this dollar world because we, ourselves, must absorb a certain portion of all the past created dollar inflation. A portion of pain we and the world must all bear in order to economically get pass this period. But, at least, we offer a position in the wealth of ages to reflect this financial loss as it is manifest in price inflation.

We will allow and support any physical gold Euro price rise to balance this action.

--------------------------

Mike,
the leverage today will be in a physical gold position, not any other form of gold ownership. By accumulating physical gold today, we are truly walking in the footsteps of giants; advancing with them as they work thru this singular, long term political move. Truly, the oil producers also fully understand and appreciate this position.

Yes, I think it is theoretically possible to see physical Euro gold priced very high while traditional American paper gold markets become cheap, non functioning, cash settlement shadows of world spot gold values. In the near future, there will be no form of arbitrage between physical gold and this failed , crushed dollar gold market because it will only allow cash settlement. While a US physical gold free market will be locally encouraged, it will most likely simply be a shadow function of Euro Gold prices.

Besides, politically, unless we once again stop all gold ownership and or implement exchange controls,,,,,, all gold buying money would head to europe. Besides again, politically, a Euro based free market will end all fictions of gold's true value anyway. (This is my private understanding or scoop, if you will) I also expect a European gold coin to become real usable legal tender (not a collector item) and be named the "EuroLand"". Again, a barter asset that is taxed when used. Just as we have sales taxes and excise taxes; gold coins used outside an investment realm would be taxed. (again, this is but the shadow of an evolving down the road position as I can best grasp it)

I also fully well expect that most world gold mine production will be forced to ship gold into the leftovers of the dollar cash settlement paper market until the Bullion Banking system is made whole on their physical side. In adjunct to this, the ECB and BIS will play a major roll in cashing out failed paper gold positions for certain clients. Cashing out in Euros, that is.

A US workout to cover its failed paper gold position will most likely be using gold industry profits. It could be done via "windfall tax legislation", plain tax or part of any variety of emergency financial arrangement. All built in order to allow our current gold reserves to be repriced at higher world levels and help our dollar stay somewhere in the next currency system. Considering the size of the failure, real gold will outperform any and all investments once this all gets started. However, we should not be naive and not expect some serious taxes of our own on bullion sales. Still, only just enough so as to keep currency tender protected from being supplanted with illegal gold use. Illegal in that too high a rate and everyone would use gold in barter and stopped paying their capital gains taxes all together.
Dollar hyperinflation and super high gold prices are closer than many think.

MK, while I think you have always understood our thrust, if this post is sinking into the readers understanding,,,,, the words should be jumping off the page at them. Let's hope so.

Now, I think I will do some gardening and also have a pizza later. Sounded too good to pass up! (smile).

thanks

TrailGuide

21mabry

(09/03/2003; 12:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108079)

Stock Market

One man who I have listned to when able is Bob Brinker.For the last several years this man has predicted the direction of the markets with a record few can match.He was in stocks from 1991 until early 2000.At that time he told his readers and listners get out of stocks and into cash.Mr. Brinker gave his readers the signal to go back into stocks in march of this year.What will happen I do not know,but he has a very good track record.Mr. Brinker never seemed to think much of gold and less of silver I dont know his reaction to the gold bull of the last couple years as he is not on local radio anymore.21

Gandalf the White

(09/03/2003; 12:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108080)

The P&F chart ! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PYES, Sir Zhisheng ! The CABAL is now seeing less impact on the old tricks ! SOON they will start to fear the fate of the charge of the GOLDHEARTS !
Look at the BEAUTIFUL "green #9 (representing the month of Sept.) on the P&F Chart at the $380. level !
The chant is now 390 390 390 !
<;-)

slingshot

(09/03/2003; 13:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108081)

Socrates964

$1000.00 Big Mac! Must have some really special sauce.

The prices at the supermarket are going up and soon we will start shopping around for the best deals.Get your meat and fish at one store and canned goods at another.
Then comes hyperinflation?

Ladies and Gentlemen, Grab Your Shopping Carts! ;0)
Off to work.
Thanks,
Slingshot-------------------<>

canamami

(09/03/2003; 13:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108082)

Yuan/Dollar Link

If the US were serious, it would just tell China that tariffs will be imposed on Chinese produced goods unless yuan floats freely. The purpose of the peg is to ensure continued exports to the US. (The flipside: During the late 90's currency crisis, the US pleaded with China to keep the peg, so maybe the US protests too much.)

The peg is good for Chinese gold demand and currency policy. Chinese savings can be parked in gold without disrupting the relationship between national currencies.

Ag Mountain

(09/03/2003; 14:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108083)

Chinese currency float

If North Dakota or Alabama is not being pressured to float its currency relative to New York or California, then why should China be under pressure or feel any obligation to do so?

Think long and hard about it.

tyro

(09/03/2003; 14:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108084)

World Bank Forecasts $300 Gold

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030903/economy_metals_worldbank_1.htmlSnippitt: "Wednesday September 3, 1:02 pm ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The World Bank forecast on Wednesday the gold price, trading around $370 an ounce, should fall below $300 an ounce as new, low-cost mines are started and producers slow the rate they've been buying gold back to unwind price protection contracts.
Gold stormed from around $250 an ounce lows last year, reaching a 6-1/2 year high at $388.50 in February as the U.S. dollar fell and threats of war against Iraq grew.
But the bank said gold's rise should weaken over the medium-term.
"Over the medium-term prices are expected to fall below $300 an ounce as supplies from all sources exceed demand," the World Bank said in a Global Economic Prospects report.
"Even below $300/oz, mine production is expected to continue to increase moderately as new low-cost operations come on stream," it said.
The World Bank also said key for the gold price was whether central bankers renegotiate a 1999 European Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement to limit their gold sales."

tyro: What a bargain price! But, from what I've read here, it's not going to happen.

Paper Avalanche

(09/03/2003; 15:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108085)

Who own's the World Bank?

Seriously, I would be curious to know the answer to this question if some one knows off the top of their head.

Thanks!
PA

Paper Avalanche

(09/03/2003; 15:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108086)

I found this link about the World Bank

http://www.worldbank.org/Interesting stuff.

Federal_Reserves

(09/03/2003; 15:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108087)

How the market goes down.

One stock a time. During year 2000, with stocks selling at nose bleed levels, stocks crashed. We have the same condition today. Overvaluation, a runup on loose money. The FED has expanded the money supply almost 20% in the last few months. Believe it or not this is a real negative for stocks right now. Money growth eventually must be brought back in line with reality, and once it does stocks weaken, even crash. That happened in 2000 as the FED unwound the big 98/99 y2k money pump. If you recall, stocks started getting 30-40% haircuts, it was stock specific. The only way to cut the nuts off of stock bulls is to not short the market, but to short specific stocks. Look for weak stocks, that aren't going up on the days the market rallies, like today. Short them. Make sure you have the odds on your side, if there are more calls open than puts in the front month that is a good contrary sign. The pro-shorters will attack a loose cow, break it out of the hear, and bring it down, rather than concentrate on the herd. Once a few specific stocks start getting killed, with big 20-30% declines in a day, and one COW after another gets slaughtered, I think then you'll see the fear index rise and the owners of the herd will run to safety and sell out before they to become victims.

Keep a close eye on the daily looser list, you should see more and more big whopper declines in stocks. A lot of crappy stocks have big runups, watch the slaughter on this channel. They'll take the index apart when they are good and ready. The prized cows with big weights in the index usually make poor shorts at the start of a decline, because folks will sell the crappy stocks and run into them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mnpl?e=o

Anyways, good luck.

Paper Avalanche

(09/03/2003; 15:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108088)

THIS JUST IN!!!!!!

Abbey Joseph Cohen says gold to hit $227 / ounce in 2004.

Just thought I'd jump in with my own headline since using the main stream news outlets for economic propoganda has become sport.

BTW - While it is certainly likely that such tripe would be spewed by AJC, the above is not an actual headline.

PA

DummyANI

(09/03/2003; 15:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108089)

Re:Dollar Bill (8/31/03; 20:55:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 107962)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chen083103.htmlMost fraud accounting system in the world is the accounting system about Central Banks.
According to the above theory of Dr. Chih Kwan Chen, Bank of Japan is the best Bank of the world.
But in the financial world, the worst loser of the 2003 fiscal year will be BOJ.
Who is the top holder of Japanese Government Bonds ?

This is BOJ, the total value is nearly one trillion dollars, nearly 16 percent of total six trillion dollars which is 150 percent of GDP.
The market of Japanese Government Bonds has been collapsed at last August after thirteen years bull rally.
Typical Head and Shoulder pattern was observed. Its head was 145.09 at June 10, 2003, the left shoulder was 143.47 at March 10,2003, and the right shoulder was 142.41 at August 5,2003.

At September 3,2003, the indicator of Japanese Government Bonds was 136 level, and its yield has been jumped over 300 percent. Could BOJ manage to hedge the Bond market ? Not at all, BOJ holds too many bonds. If BOJ sells her holding bonds, everyone can easily know her action at once. BOJ holds her buying-bonds at the maturity time.

Who is the top holder of USA Government Bonds ?

This is also BOJ, the total value is nearly 0.44 trillion dollars.
The market of USA Government Bonds has also been collapsed at last June. Could BOJ manage to hedge the USA-Bond market ? Not at all, BOJ holds too many bonds. If BOJ sells her holding bonds, everyone can easily know her action at once.

BOJ holds about 1.44 trillion dollar of Government Bonds in Japan and USA. BOJ has no hedge positions at each bond-market. BOJ is a sinking Titanic at the financial market.

I cannot image that Japan's national account balance will be 2.7 + 9.0 = 11.7 trillion dollars at 2023. Before this happens, Japan retraces Ennron destiny.

Great Albino Bat

(09/03/2003; 15:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108090)

Paper Avalanche: the World Bank...

An excellent example of parasitism in humanity.

I guess parasitism is a legitimate form which life can exhibit, in its diverse manifestations. We condemn parasitism but perhaps this is unjust; just because we are the ones who nurture the parasites, doesn't mean that parasites don't have their place in the great Scheme of Things. To condemn parasites is not objective, it is subjective. For parasites, parasitism is the only way to live. I am sure parasites greatly enjoy their life, and feel contempt for those of us inferior beings who cannot share their enjoyment.

Think of Wolfensohn, that magnificent parasite, President of the World Bank. He flies around the world at will, in his G-5, and has trouble deciding in which villa to spend the next few days: is it on an island in Sweden, at a villa overlooking lake Como in Italy, on a wine estate in Chile? etc.

The problem with being a parasite is you mostly, have to be born into the style. The lucky few.

Being a really good parasite requires certain mental conditioning. A necessary starting point for excelling in parasitism, requires a fundamental view that regards humanity as, in general, inferior and created for the benefit of the parasite. Starting from that initial point of view, well ingrained in youth, the potential parasite is freed from any qualms whatsoever, about enjoying sucking the blood from humanity at large. Few of us start out with that advantage in education.

This has been a great age for human parasites; they enjoy the full consent of their "hosts", as those who provide the blood are known in biology. What happier condition could the parasites hope for? Their dreams come true!

Human parasites both love and hate gold. They love it for themselves, and want all of it, because they hate it in the hands of their "hosts". The human parasite has trouble sucking blood from a human who owns gold. So, the parasites cooperate to find ways of parting humans (the inferior kind) from their gold. They have to convince the "host" that gold produces no return, is volatile, is outmoded, is going down in price.

Therefore, the World Bank, one of the high citadels of parasitism, announces gravely that gold will be below $300 shortly.

Sorry, all you human lice at World Bank, the GAB is not buying your story!

The GAB.

DummyANI

(09/03/2003; 15:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108091)

Japanese car exports stop for a few months.

Shin Nippon Steel, the top steel company in the world, melt down in Nagoya-works at September 4..
Shin Nippon Steel at Nagoya is the primary provider of Auto-makers in Japan, ex. Toyota and Honda.
Toyota and Honda cannot make any cars for a few months. This is a trigger of the trade deficits of Japan.
The monkey economy of Toyota-system will be melt down by the simple accident of a steel maker.
Buy a gold, sell a yen.

Cometose

(09/03/2003; 16:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108092)

Abby Jo Cohen : Prognosticator

So they trotted the old Girl back out today to have a word ,eh? and what did MRS ED have to say???????

If you check her track record , you will find that she's on a hot streak ......of LYING going back several years...

LIAR LIAR, Panties on fire , YOUR NOSE IS LONGER THAN A TELEPHONE WIRE? ah HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAAAAAHAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAHHHHHHHHHHAHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA

Agingfast

(09/03/2003; 16:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108093)

Gold and poetry

According to his biography on the IMDb site, actor Brian Donlevy's favorite hobbies were mining for gold and writing poetry.

misetich

(09/03/2003; 16:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108094)

Executive Summary Report - Fed Reserve Beige Book - Sept 3

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2003/20030903/default.htmExecutive Summary prepared by Misetich

Labor markets remain slack across the nation
.........

Although districts note price increases for natural gas, gasoline, insurance, tuition, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, most product prices are reported to be stable or lower
..........

In most districts, retail sales improved at least modestly in July and August
.........

Manufacturing activity is reported to be improving slightly to moderately
...........
Various districts report solid or strengthening demand for autos and auto parts, high tech equipment, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and building materials...............On the other hand, markets for paper, chemicals, textiles, and furniture were reportedly soft or softer than in the recent past, and overall steel demand remains muted
............

Manufacturers are reportedly facing rising costs for energy and insurance, but materials costs mostly remain contained.............However, competitive pressures or weak demand continue to cause other selling prices to hold steady or fall.
.............
Manufacturers generally expect that their production volumes will increase somewhat
...........
Although commercial real estate markets remained lackluster in most districts in July and early August, scattered signs of improvement were reported.
...........
Unfavorable weather--too much rain in the East and too little in the Midwest and Southwest--is delaying harvests and damaging crops and pastures in parts of many districts
*************
Misetich

Little job creation, pricing pressure/margins being squeezed by higher energy costs, insurance costs

The stock market are racing higher again based on false illusions

The big bad bear is licking its chops. Is the SM top near?

The gold bull is ready to stampede for the next leg up.

Stay tuned

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/03/2003; 16:45:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108096)

World Bank: Global Economic Recovery Fragile But Under Way Sep 3 / 14:12 EDT

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1062612720000&sn=3&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The global economic recovery is still
fragile but is underway, although industrialized countries will only see
"anemic growth" of 1.5% in 2003, the World Bank said in its report on
Global Economic Prospects released Wednesday.
.............

The report sees U.S. growth of 2.2%, 3.4% and 2.8%, compared to
Japan's 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.3%, and the euro area's 0.7%, 1.7% and 2.1% in
2003, 2004 and 2005
..........
The report cited as structural risks the historically high U.S.
current account deficit, and weak performance of Japanese and European
banks, but also noted other risks such as the return of SARS and
troubles in the Middle East.
.............
And, pointing to the U.S. current account deficit, the report cited
the risk of "a sudden reversal" of short-term capital flows, that could
"undercut U.S. and world growth."
Hans Timmer, head of the World Bank's global trends team, said in a
statement that, "The persistent structural problem in rich countries --
such as the twin deficits in the U.S. and weaker performance of Japanese
and European banks -- risk precipitating a disruptive fall in the U.S.
dollar or other unexpected confidence shock that cuts off the investment
recovery.
"If these risks materialize, all bets are off," Timmer said.
The report also said, "the spread of deflation has become a real
risk," and cited figures indicating "the world's major economies could
be balanced on the edge of deflation."
****************
Misetich

"If these risks materialize, all bets are off," Timmer said.

It makes you wonder on how the World Bank makes predictions of gold at $300, anemic world growth, citing global deflation risks, dysfunctional imbalances and financial risks, affecting all continents

Who are these bozos?

What is the alternative to the US $? The Euro? The Yen?

or

GOLD? PHYSICAL GOLD

You decide

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

DryWasher

(09/03/2003; 16:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108097)

SPRINGBOARD FOR DISCUSSION

http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html

@TownCrier (usagold.com msg#: 108054)
Thank you sir for the above link, and WOW, what a discussion on gold and the monetary system. I have spent most of the day reading it and have bookmarked it for future reference. Excellent.

@Cor Tauri (usagold.com msg#: 108039)
Thank you also for pointing me to the above discussion as well. I am sad to hear that anger caused two great minds to leave this round table over disagreement on this issue back then. We must all take extreme care not to allow anger to ever enter in to our discussions, and to remember to show respect for views we may not agree with.

@Dollar Bill (usagold.com msg#: 108050)
If the entire existing world monetary system crashes either world trade must just stop, which would be a disaster, or some new system would have to be put into place to replace it. In the wake of such a crash I just cannot see those who have lost in the crash being willing to accept a new system that has all of the problems of the old system. It is in that context that I think a system along the lines that I outlined might emerge and the United States would be forced to correct the balance of payments with the rest of the world, or using your terminology, our credit card would be cancelled. Thanks for the comments.

@Buena Fe (usagold.com msg#: 108034)
You said "IMO you are descibing in part the post civilized period dubbed by certain folk; "the millenium", during which a certain "Anointed One" is in charge."
This wasn't exactly what I had in mind, but if the system does really crash one living through it might well think you were right. (Smile).

@Great Albino Bat (usagold.com msg#: 108031)
Thanks for the reply. It seems that you and I think pretty much the same on this subject. Also I agree with your views on growth. Bigger is not always better by any means.

Gandalf the White

(09/03/2003; 16:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108098)

GOODBYE Dan !

BTW -- you should add one more six to that email address !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/03/2003; 17:05:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108099)

Even looks BETTER today !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PThey have changed the "nine" from green to red as it is a day old now ! AND, on the green background, it looks even better.
390 390 390
<;-)

DummyANI

(09/03/2003; 17:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108100)

No car exports result in No Japanese trade surplus.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htm15 injured in gas tank explosion

Japanese car exports stop for a few months.
Shin Nippon Steel, the top steel company in the world, melt down in Nagoya-works at September 3.
Shin Nippon Steel at Nagoya is the primary provider of Auto-makers in Japan, ex. Toyota and Honda.
Toyota and Honda cannot make any cars for a few months. They suffer from no steel of cars. This is a trigger of the trade deficits of Japan. No car exports result in No Japanese trade surplus
The monkey economy of Toyota-system will be melt down by the simple accident of a steel maker.
D-ANY: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Remarx

(09/03/2003; 18:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108101)

Re: World Bank Forecast

Is anyone aware if there is a documented history of World Bank forecasts on the POG? I would love to be able to track them against actual occurrences.

R Powell

(09/03/2003; 18:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108102)

Silver

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=246u1110§ion=Markets&page=Commodities&channel=Precious%20Metals%20News&objectid=C9D5E773-8F38-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7C If the Chinese keep up this pace, we may have enough silver for those superconductive cables after all.
Naw, couldn't happen.

specie-man

(09/03/2003; 19:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108103)

RE: Silver

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=246u1110§ion=Markets&page=Commodities&channel=Precious%20Metals%20News&objectid=C9D5E773-8F38-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7CWhy do journalists always have such little regard for numbers, and making sure the numbers in their stories are correct ?

I'd like to know what China's exact silver export numbers are, but that article is suspicious.

At the top it says the 2002 export total was 2219 tons. Later on it says the 2002 export total was 2214 tons (a small discrepancy, I know).

But there is a bigger discrepancy. China's silver exports, according to the article were:

2000, 191.0 tons
2001, 1225.0 tons, up 540.0% from 2000
2002, 2214.0 tons, up 80.7% from 2001
2003, 104.4 tons, up 18.0% from 2002

The 2003 number is for the first five months of the year, and the "18%" gain is compared to the first five months of 2002. The "104.4" figure looks suspect. Maybe it is really "1044" - that would be close to 18% higher than five twelfths of the 2002 number.

I shouldn't have to do the math. They should report it correctly the first time.

steady

(09/03/2003; 19:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108104)

GANDALF RE THE CHART

if u take a double look at that chart you will see spot at full attention pointing to the finger which is pointing the dircetion whcich we arre headed.
notice spots feet cb and 4
notice number hanging from spots collar 6 which is a multiple or deriviate of 3 a good luck sign. notice how strong his tail is

notice the finger #9 is the index #8 is the second finger
#7 is the third the row of 0000 is the rest of your hand.
that is one beautifully painted chart. are you sure you didnt draw that yourself, or guide the markets into drawing it for us.
good boy spot didnt now he was a pointer to! :+)

canamami

(09/03/2003; 20:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108105)

Reply to Ag Mountain

Ag Mountain,

But you're referring to subnational entities which form part of the same country. All those States are part of the US and use the same currency. China is a separate country.

China's growth is to a great extent based on exports to the US, and China maintains its comparative advantage artificially by pegging the yuan to the dollar at a favourable rate. Other things being equal, the yuan should rise relative to the dollar with the trade imbalance, to redress the trade imbalance by discouraging Chinese exports to the US. (I note that China also does not respect US rights in terms of intellectual property, etc.).

I recognize that the US broke (and is breaking) the "rules" in terms of repudiating the peg to gold and in suppressing the POG. However, it is wrong to hold the US to a higher moral standard. The other actors also fight dirty to advance their own interests, and China is a particularly dirty fighter.

Cometose

(09/03/2003; 20:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108106)

CHINA AND SILVER

COULD IT BE , Could it be, COuld it be, COULD IT BE >>>>>>>>>>>>
THAT THE CHNESE ARE joining WARREN and BILL , and GEORGE et AL in a game of

manipultating the price of silver.....or would that be reverse manipulation or would it be reverse hedging...
what a novel idea.....

If silver starts running , you know the GOLD BUGS are not going to let anyone show them up ....it will just light a fire under GOLD........LOOK at all their (Chinese) holdings of US paper.......got to have an ACE IN THE HOLE of DIVERSIFICATION and in this case....it just might be a sure thing....hmmmmm perhaps that's two aces....

Now all we need is the encouraging words from the leaders of the two most populous nations in the world who may step up to the Microphone and encourage their people to buy silver and gold to weather the coming finanicial storm.....

GOD is answering my prayer and sending great vision and practical fianancial guidance into the depths of human beings across the world.....

Perhaps this time ......the plans of The Sinister backfire in their faces and the masses are protected and rewarded for following the light that has been given them.....
GOTTA LOVE THAT INTERNET.....and THAT LIGHT

Now I have another prayer.....
and forgive me for praying outloud....,I think it's healthy to pray out loud sometimes....I'm thinking about taking it up in restaurants....I know how to pray and I don't pray boring prayers even when I'm blessing my food....
One of my heroes is from Kansas; His name is Donny Fugit...
He used to pray long prayers over lunch in the WAY and pray in the name of Davy Crockett just to make sure that everyone was awake...

Pardon my aside....

God , thank you for your universe and all creation and especially for all your precious People(s) all over the globe..May what you are doing and what you are going to do be a great testament ( in addition to the other testaments that you already gave) to the great love you have for all mankind......including men women and children of all colors , nations , and faiths....

I know , GOD , that You are able.....and that you hear me ..
and that no request / petition is too great or too small...

If evil is purposed against the peoples of the world GOd , I thank You that as our Buckler and our Rearreward that YOU Protect....by causing solar flares of a magnitude as to knock out the Satelite systems that carry the coordinates of missile destinations and that you short circuit every device of evil in the arsenal of evil to bring their plans to nought.... and to the consternation of the media and the leaders of the organizations that purpose to war and to control and self empower and engender strife ...that you fill the hearts of the peoples of the world with the will to LOVE EACH other in spite of the COUNTER INTELLIGENCE designed to defeat THAT END that is purposefully spread about through the use of ugly acts , ugly mouths and the media... in the name of JESUS CHRIST , I beseech you Lord Almighty...

Also thank you for this awesome country that was established to be OF THE PEOPLE, FOR THE PEOPLE, AND BY THE PEOPLE and when some come along and try to hijack that ,that the citizens who love the LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE......send those bozo's on their way ....all of them repeatedly as long as it takes to fulfill our purpose here

Ag Mountain

(09/03/2003; 20:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108107)

canamami thanks for giving it thought

YOU: "China maintains its comparative advantage artificially by pegging the yuan to the dollar at a favourable rate."

That's a fancy (almost accusatory) way of saying 'The Chinese worker is willing to do the job for less real pay.'

If they're willing, why is that not their prerogative? One world currency or many, it all boils down the same.

I'll leave the morality thing to higher powers to sort out somewhere in the end.

Cavan Man

(09/03/2003; 20:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108108)

canamami USAG108082

Dear Sir: The US can't affor to be serious. Here in the US, we depend upon imports from China. Almost everything I purchase has Chinese components or is 100% sourced in China.I have been told by US west coast box buyers that China is now exporting linerboard (stuff corrugated boxes are made of) to the west coast. We ship them the fibre; they add the value and we give the boxes away. I understand box shipments were at one time reported in Barron's (too bad to see such a good venue lost to irrational exuberance). US box shipments:

2001: minus 5.8%
2002: plus .4%
Thru 7-31-03: minus 1.6%

Whither the recovery? PS: I still love NS! Hopefully, we will return soon! Best...CM

Remarx

(09/03/2003; 20:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108109)

Keynes on Gold, Recovery and Aggression

This forum has stimulated me to read various primary sources, including Adam Smith, Karl Marx and most recently Murray Rothbard's "What Has Government Done to Our Money" (from the Ludwig Von Mises Institute). I may be wrong, but his classical economics perspective seems to represent the thoughts of a lot of people who collect physical gold and discuss it in this forum.

But I am also just now reading Keynes and thought I might include a snippet with statements that fly in the face of much of the analysis here in re the current US account deficit and its fiat currency. I am still honestly trying to determine how much financial trouble the US is really in. It is reassuring, in some degree, to know that there exists theoretical support for the positions the US has taken historically (viz, debt and being off the gold standard). They do not all appear to be solely the result of spineless politicians as many claim. And they may not be the source of our imperial aggression any more than had we adhered to classical economics policies, as Keynes indicates.

I think there may be others out there who are interested in gold for the same reason I am: although it has no intrinsic value, it may be a lifesaver in troubled times because so many people seem to value it and turn to it when in doubt. I personally cannot give credence to Rothbard's claim that gold has intrinsic monetary value; to me it has no more allure than gold painted metal. But I do realize it is valued by others around the world!

If this kind of back-to-basics questioning is not viewed as helpful or interesting, please let me know and I will not post any more messages of this sort.

----
SNIP FROM Keynes' General Theory:
...to the confused thinking of contemporary advocates of
an international fixed gold standard and laissez-faire in
international lending, who believe that it is precisely these policies which will best promote peace.

For in an economy subject to money contracts and customs more or less fixed over an appreciable period of time, where the quantity of the domestic circulation and the domestic rate of interest are primarily determined by the balance of payments, as they were in Great Britain before the war, there is no orthodox means open to the authorities for countering unemployment at home except by struggling for an export surplus and an import of the monetary metal at the expense of their neighbours. Never in history was there a method devised of such efficacy for setting each country's advantage at variance with its neighbours' as the international gold (or, formerly, silver) standard. For it made domestic prosperity directly dependent on a competitive pursuit of markets and a competitive appetite for the precious metals. When by happy accident the new supplies of gold and silver were comparatively abundant, the struggle might be somewhat abated. But with the growth of wealth and the diminishing marginal propensity to consume, it has tended to become increasingly internecine. The part played by orthodox economists, whose common sense has been insufficient to check their faulty logic, has been disastrous to the latest act. For when in their blind struggle for an escape, some countries have thrown off the obligations which had previously rendered impossible an autonomous rate of interest, these economists have taught that a restoration of the former shackles is a necessary
first step to a general recovery.

In truth the opposite holds good. It is the policy of an autonomous rate of interest, unimpeded by international preoccupations, and of a national investment programme directed to an optimum level of domestic employment which is twice blessed in the sense that it helps ourselves and our neighbours at the same time. And it is the simultaneous pursuit of these policies by all countries together which is capable of restoring economic health and strength internationally, whether we measure it by the level of domestic employment or by the volume of international trade.

canamami

(09/03/2003; 20:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108110)

Further reply to Ag Mountain

Thx for your reply.

Let's recast the fact situation. Let's say the US tomorrow said "We're pegging the dollar to the yuan" but at a rate favourable to US trade goals, which ultimately impact on real, living human beings.

Well, the scenario for a outright trade war, perhaps leading to a shooting war, is set. China says Peg A, the US says Peg B, and both sides engage in all out manipulation to achieve their ends.

When China pegs to the $US, that means it is willing to manipulate the $US as well as its own currency. Now, when smaller countries like Argentina and Ecuador peg to the $US, the impact on the US may not be great, but if China does it, the impact is harmful.

This was one benefit of the gold standard or a peg to gold: The currency peg to gold was not a hostile act directed at a "pegee" country, so to speak. If gold is not in the picture, then floating currencies are preferable, as a peg to another country's currency is potentially a cause of major conflict, perhaps war.

Remarx

(09/03/2003; 21:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108111)

@PaperAvalanche: World Bank aslo on Gold Wrong for 2002 and 2003

I followed PA's link to the World Bank and also looked at the 2002 and 2003 forecasts. They both predicted stagnant gold prices -- and the price went up dramatically and consistently after their predictions were made!

canamami

(09/03/2003; 21:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108112)

Reply to Cavan Man

CM,

I'm glad you liked my home province. It's a wonderful place in which to live, as long as one has a job (which seems to be the bane of all the beautiful places in which to live).

You hit on an important point. The US may now be so deindustrialized that it may have lost its resiliency, the ability to adapt if it did get serious with China. However, I think the US is still the most adaptive and resilient country in the world. Even if the FOA/Another paradigm shift comes to pass to the degree they predicted, the US will recover after a painful disruption.

I used to be a free trader. (I still think free trade is good among countries at essentially similar stages of economic and social development). However, I am becoming a Perot/Buchanan follower in terms of trade between countries at wildly different stages of development, which leads to what Jane Jacobs described as "transactions of decline".

(09/03/2003; 21:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108113)

CHINESE EXPORTS ARE ALSO HIGH TECH

REF

Cavan Man (09/03/03; 20:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108108)
canamami USAG108082
Dear Sir: The US can't affor to be serious. Here in the US, we depend upon imports from China. Almost everything I purchase has Chinese components or is 100% sourced in China.I have been told by US west coast box buyers that China is now exporting linerboard (stuff corrugated boxes are made of) to the west coast...

AXComment:

I recently purchased an IBM Think Pad high end lap top from IBM and was surprised to see that THE LAP TOP AND MOST ALL add on components were all MADE IN CHINA.

CONCLUSION: I THINK IT IS DANGEROUS FOR ANY COUNTRY MOST PARTICULARLY THE U.S. TO BECOME OVERLY DEPENDENT ON HIGH TECH IMPORTS FROM A FOREIGN COUNTRY.

Max Rabbitz

(09/03/2003; 21:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108114)

ReMarx on Marx

"In truth the opposite holds good. It is the policy of an autonomous rate of interest, unimpeded by international
preoccupations, and of a national investment programme directed to an optimum level of domestic employment
which is twice blessed in the sense that it helps ourselves and our neighbours at the same time."

In truth does anyone really understand what Marx was talking about? No one has been able to explain his thoughts to me in terms I can understand. What you have posted from Marx seems to describe the fiat system!

"Never in history was there a method devised of such efficacy for setting each country's advantage at variance with its neighbours' as the international gold (or, formerly, silver) standard."

This statement seems to me to describe the current beggar thy neighbor currency system employed in the current fiat system.

ReMarx, Contrary opinions are always welcome. I've always valued the stimulation. Gold has been and is the test of honesty and truth. You can't fake it.

Melting Pot

(09/03/2003; 21:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108115)

@Remarx

"When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket, and then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter. Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch Money. Money is a barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion--when you see that in order to produce you need permission from men who produce nothing--when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors---when you see men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you--when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice--you may know that our society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that it does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot. Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize GOLD and leave to its owner's a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that doesn't exist, backed by a gun pointed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account Overdrawn."--Ayn Rand: "Atlas Shrugged"

John Maynard Keynes was a madman that taught the intellectual elites how to fleece the world by destroying all objective standards and objective value. Todays society reflects todays values, money wise, intellectual, social and moral! Money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence, destroy money, destroy man! Thats exactly what fiat currency has done......

bugs

(09/03/2003; 21:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108116)

Enhancement request

I humbly submit my request before the table, even though I have no right.

It would be a great enhancement to be able to search the Forum Archives based on:

1) Body/message full text search (with boolean operators).

2) Sender search ("show me all the posts from XXXX").

3) Date range search in combination with #1 and #2.

I know our purchases of gold nourish these pages. I have purchased my physical from here. Thank you greatly for the excellent service, and thanks for the Forum for everything.

If I am being dumb and there is a form to perform these queries I have not located, please smack me over the head with a blunt object..

MarkeTalk

(09/03/2003; 22:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108117)

New Scandal on Wall Street in Thursday's WSJ

For those of us who have access to the Wall Street Journal online, it is wonderful to read tomorrow's headlines this evening or night before. Tomorrow's headlines will grab your attention, as the online articles grabbed mine tonight. Eliot Spitzer, the scrappy New York Attorney General, has scooped the story and beaten the SEC (lap dog that it is) to the punch. Mr. Spitzer has uncovered massive fraud amongst the hedge funds in collusion with the mutual fund industry. Surprise, surprise. The more things change on Wall Street, the more they stay the same. Same old corruption, second verse.

The culprit in all of this is a scion to one of America's biggest fortunes, the Stern family. Not being a household word, the Stern family is better known to American families as the Hartz Mountain pet food conglomerate, i.e. bird seed, flea and tick collars, etc. Anyway, what grandpa and his son so painstakingly put together over the past 50 years, the grandson, Edward, has placed some of it--not all--at risk. This is more of the silver-spoon-in-mouth disease which has spawned many tragedies. Furthermore, it is just one more expose of the excesses which have plagued Wall Street.

My prediction: This latest revelation is coming precisely at a cyclical top in stocks, which are due their seasonal and customary "crash" in September and October. The market is just aching for an excuse to sell off violently and to punish all of the newly returned stock investors who have foolishly heeded CNBC's advice. As stocks sink beneath the waves, gold will rise like the morning sun until it is high in the sky for all to see. Also relevant to this point, market analysts Arch Crawford (Crawford Perspectives) and Eric Hadik (Insiide Track) are both calling for an imminent and precipitous decline in stocks.

As far as price goes, I have been telling my clients that anything under $400/oz. will seem a bargain in years to come. Once the $400/oz. level is taken out convincingly, the gold will bolt ahead like a horse out of a barn. So to all of my clients who are reading this, check your gold holdings and if you need to add to them, please call me before everyone else does. In a panic run, I cannot guarantee that you will be able to reach me. I am on extension 102.

GC

mikal

(09/03/2003; 23:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108118)

Re: $300 gold "call"- Gold gets great free PR!

World Bank becoming more irrelevant by the day? Did the BIS order this irresistable $300 press release to put WBank out to pasture before the BIS tenants give their offices a facelift?
Lots of gold and orange and brown halloween candy making an early appearance in stores here in upstate NY and some gold, silver, red and green Christmas decorations and gifts here and there. And few will observe that gold is signalling an early holiday.
But perhaps there will be great collateral damage from the collapse of the economic system. Gold will mitigate the wounds of only a few.
And the Sobig "super" virus may return again on Sept. 11th, two weeks after the last internet attack, and two years after the WTC collapse, as a new, beefed-up Sobig variant can be activated after the current Sobig variant expires on Sept. 10th.
World equities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are trading unexpectedly higher, as if distribution was a top priority. Insider selling is at an all time record and volume is approaching old bubble exuberance. Mortgage and bond rates, along with money market and CD rates, are rising. While struggling, the dollar has not reversed its bear trend, and is weaker fundamentally. World financial derivatives nearing $200 trillion have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.
The UN's financial appendage, the World Bank, may have signalled a seminal change, a concession to gold that could end their reckless brinkmanship forever.

Ag Mountain

(09/03/2003; 23:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108119)

canamami peg wars

I wish I had your grasp of foreign exchange, then I could understand where the shooting part would factor in economically.

Gandalf the White

(09/03/2003; 23:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108120)

That is "interesting", Sir George !

MarkeTalk (09/03/03; 22:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108117)===
Thanks Sir George, (or is that Saint George the Dragon Slayer?), for the WSJ "headsup" !
Perhaps you can substitute for BB's Daily Report for a couple days ?
<;-)

DoubleEagle

(09/04/2003; 00:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108121)

Re: Melting Pot Msg #108115

It's been seven years or so since I read Atlas Shrugged. I think I'll pick it up again when my reading pile gets down to a managable level. While The Fountainhead was probably her most pure work, as far as her philosphy goes, I remember Atlas Shrugged being the better read, plot wise.

That being said, reading your post made me think of how things change, academically. When I first read The Fountainhead in Jr. High, my mother commented that both she and my father had to read it during college, and that it was actively taught by a number of professors. My parents were in school from '67-'71. When I went to college from '94-'99, any mention of Ayn Rand by my professors was a scathing denouncement. To even bring her up was to invite ridicule.

As a further aside, the book that seemed most popular to teach during my high school and college tenure was "The Awakening" by Kate Chopin. Once in high school and twice in college I had to read it. The basic plot is that a woman, realizing that she's being oppressed by men and her children (small expressions of her husband's ego), drowns herself because she just can't go on with that little revalation spinning in her head. It was claptrap the first time I read it, and was no better the third time. Now which author had more to say?

On the gold front, I'm happy to say that my personal reserves are right where I want them to be. Now to start shoveling as much fiat at my student loans as I can spare. I think I'll have just enough time to be rid of them before TSHTF.

-DoubleEagle

slingshot

(09/04/2003; 00:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108122)

I'm Having Fun Now, I'm Having Fun Now.

DJIA 9568.40 Volume 1,637,709,000 shares for the day.

We're they not howling that the stock market was going to take off if it broke 9553 on the Dow?

Sir George, drops the bomb about Hartz Mountain (another one bites the dust) and the market is looking for an excuse to punish the newly returned stock investor. Is this Pump and Dump?

A.Cohen comes out and says gold to $227 in 2004.

How about this gold glut? The mines and all that news.
We swallowed 20 tons from Greece. Are they saying that that twenty tons plus more is going to be dumped on the market sending gold to the pits? Has to be one hell of a recovery to send it down $150.00. Not to mention a very stable world.
As Sir George states gold will be a bargain at $400.

As the POG climbs I predict that the smaller denominations ,even with their higher cost, will disappear quicker than the One Ounce Coins. Some is better than none.

There is a thought for you USAGOLD. While everyone else is loading up on the the best buy, one ounce. Why not stock up on those smaller coins in anticpation of the small buyer in need.

I await the garbage spewed from the mouths of the Talking Heads. CNBC, Welcome to the Greatest Show on Earth.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Jacob Marley

(09/04/2003; 01:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108123)

ReMarx - 108109

Nope, go right ahead and ask your questions, and give us your thoughts. I will give you a few of mine. We all try to find out what this truth stuff is all about, don't we??

Where you say: [gold] has no intrinsic value -- yessirree, you are absolutely right. It is a rock just like the rest, except there's a little bit less of it. It has some unique "utilitarian" values (you've heard it all: durability, malleability, etc., and so forth), but nothing that should command the belief in its value to be multiple digit multiples of what it is today.

But! as you rightly note, it "is valued by others around the world!" First classs understatement sir, and right on the mark. For whatever reason - those who write the rules have had enough influence on the planet over the ages that gold is considered in the sub-conscious cultus of men to be the primo asset. No use trying to argue it philosophically as far as your money is concerned. Just roll with the flow, and we can talk philosophy and economics here at the round table.

At the risk of being simplistic, Keynes' mistake (and it led him to not just one paradox of contradiction) was not in denigrating gold as a monetary asset (which is absolutely correct), but was in not perceiving that it held real value in the eyes of mankind. Thus, by not recognizing its value as a traditional wealth store, as well as an escape hatch and a natural hedge against irresponsible monetary policy, and thereby not promoting forthrightly its freedom to float freely in the markets (he just seemed to want to ignore it after having seen to its demonetization), he tacitly gave in to denying the populace a means to repudiate the monetary authorities. Instead, while calling the monetary policy of a "gold standard" a barbaric relic, he tried to formulate an alternative inside a world that couldn't kick the habit.

One of his contradictions lay in a struggle between interest rates and full employment - to which you allude with a quote of his. His beef here is that domestic money supply is under the oppressive limitation of available specie, which case only improves by finding some more specie, or by acquiring it through a trade surplus. Correcto. But so you remove this constraint, now what's going to happen when you untether the currency? Whether by rule or banker discretion, you must influence the adjustment of interest rates to keep/put enough money in the system to satisfy demand, so as to keep the economy purring at some 'appropriate' level, but not so much as to create the impression that it's not really 'scarce'. What's the right level, and how do you figure it out? And how (according to Keynes' big pet peeve) do you generate and sustain full employment?

JMK rightfully figures out an axiom of human nature - people want money plain and simple. You can't really do anything about the 'want' part of this. As far as meeting the want, 2 things: you can't just make more of it without some rationale that convinces its holders to keep holding it; and you can't just re-channel this 'want' either. In other words, even if money goes up in price, substitutes don't suddenly fill in the gap. Instead money becomes more expensive, and hence harder to come by. So - goods demand diminishes, and with it the general price level, and with it unemployment goes up. But the paradox lies in that as the price level declines, real money supply increases, even though the nominal amount may not. This exerts the counterweight that 'should' help bring it all back into equilibrium again. (Once in equilibrium - which implies full employment, the devil on this side was that full employment implied wage increase pressure, leading to price inflation, whose remedy could and did involve more politically driven efforts to manage demand, supply and supply factors, including employment, than they did macroeconomic motivators.)

But while JMK recognized the political problems, he did not have a solution economically for the dilemma. In reality his penchant to remove the world from the shackles of the monetary gold standard, was never practiced, and still is not - as the world today still lives under a sort of gold standard by a contract influenced gold market. Our economic reality is largely driven by economic/political forces that favor or are inextricably bound in a world where the currency their wealth is based upon is in competition with gold - vestigially, traditionally, or core-philosophically. So, as they must keep up appearances in this currency, they must place it in a permanent entente with gold. Like the old days. No longer 'officially' backed, it still keeps a certain stability to the metal. (The rise from $35 to today's $370 follows like someone told to let off some steam, and after the first couple of blunders, figures out how to regulate the valve setting until its under ever more perfect control.)

So with that, JMK's full employment problem remains with us. Contractions don't evolve naturally into the increases in money supply brought on by lower interest rates that should jumpstart economies, and expansions don't have a natural brake that raises interest rates to choke off excess expansion - always nipping deviations in the bud before getting out of whack. Why? The short answer is that, without an unencumbered means of escape, all money policy is under the control of human (political) authority. Under pressure they will always do what is expedient, and there is no check outside of them to make them do otherwise. With gold as this 'for-whatever-reason' asset that is (physically held) no other's liability, it would in a freer world provide the veto to out-of-control controllers, but the current framework has gold controlled to perfection by having convinced enough of the world that holding promises related to its price fluctuation amounts to the same thing as holding the metal. These promises are unlimited in their creation, and meet (and satisfy) enough demand to contain the price, and so create the impression that the competing currency is as good as the gold.

So not for any theoretical reason, but thru the pragmatic reality of real-world politics, there is no escape from the system. And frankly the last thing big speculative money cares about is whether you have a job or not. Not really because they are so selfish and cold, but because the system as it is laid out is NOT really contingent on your being employed. This is one of the biggest errors of the many monetary thinkers. They think that monetary workings are based upon business fundamentals, and then blame market stupids or cabals when monetary workings don't line up with business fundamentals.

The problem is that it is the other way around - people are primarily influenced by money, and money contracts drive (in the macro sense) the real economic workings. Not the other way around. It worked that way in the gold standard. And it works that way now. In the gold standard trade balances drove economic policy, because the be all and end all was to get into surplus to acquire more monetary assets. This often meant raising domestic rates to entice foreign flows, even though it was uncalled for domestically, and crippled domestic business.

Today we see the same in exchange rates where come hell or high water we must have a strong dollar policy to encourage foreign capital flows to offset our hopelessly deficit current account - even though it puts domestic industry on the chopping block. For all of Snow's half-hearted overtures in China, he knows this is a lost cause, and is only for political show (election year looming). The US will permanently drive the dollar as strong as possible to maintain a "capital competitive advantage," all the while kind-of, maybe hoping a weaker (but not too weak) dollar will throw a bone to local industry. Too little too late, and a weaker dollar only means dearer oil that just serves to further hamper recovery. Rock and hard place. They need both ends of the spectrum, but can tolerate neither. But the lesser of evils is the strong dollar policy in their minds, as it at least buys a little more time. But in the process of keeping a brave face, the US will keep rates low and lower, and pull all kinds of wonders out of their hat, and in the process hyper-dyper inflate into delirium. All this to show big international money that the casino-US is still the best gaming table around.

Keynes is foiled again. He couldn't get it right in era US 1930s, and he would've shrugged his shoulders at 90s Japan on the deflationary side - and he can't explain the inflationary phenomenon of the US either. Not because he didn't have some good points, but because he wasn't thorough enough. Forest for the trees stuff.

The hope of some countries today is that knowing the result of a monetary policy that holds a world-recognized, genuinely scarce, held in great esteem for-whatever-reason asset like gold hostage, and leaves people no escape, they have worked to develop a currency that will not compete with gold, or any asset on a monetary basis. This euro concept recognizes monetary currency for what it is - an intrinsically worthless tool that for-whatever-reason (tender law, protocol, custom - whatever) becomes accepted and used as a means of payment, without being tied back to some commodity or property. Knowing that people want and need such a tool, they will combine both the promotion of a better administration of the tool, AND allow it be repudiated by the free market purchase of gold (without artificially-influencing contracts that have no realistic coupling to the underlier). This will be the first time in a very, very long time that this has happened.

Won't a precipitous rise in gold be just a cyclical phenomenon, offset by a preference for producing non-gold holdings in better times? Yes, after making up some significant pent up ground from decades of official gold value suppression in the gold standard days. Then cycles will run their usual course but at a permanently higher status quo.

Some people worry that new supply will adequately compensate demand at higher prices as it then pays to extract it from even the sea water (or get it from Mars??? - the next great Gold Rush???), eventually overwhelming demand and driving the price down in a firesale, until it returns to oblivion once more. Not to worry here again. Market theory will yield to political reality, and production will become a controlled enterprise. Remember the banks promoting this freely priced physical gold stuff only do so because they have a lot of it. They will not risk diluting their holdings.

So what to say about "free markets always win in the end of the day" ?? 1st, maybe they don't want lots of extra gold in the market, too? If my gold is valued very nicely, and I dispose of it as I will for things I want at a very favorable exchange, why do I want someone going out and procuring twice as much again more of it from earth, sea or outer space? I think the markets will welcome production curtailment at that time.

Even with that said, days can be pretty long, and while in the long run the market pressures typically undo artificial constraints, in the long run we're all dead anyway.

silvercollector

(09/04/2003; 04:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108124)

Tate

108064Excellent post. Pretty much ends the speculative discussion of the future of the yuan/dollar peg.

MnDan

(09/04/2003; 04:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108125)

(No Subject)

I've just lost my last thought... anyhow..to the keepers of the flame.. carry on. Dan

Dollar Bill

(09/04/2003; 05:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108126)

*>*............+

Consumers snapped up cars at one of the fastest paces ever. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Selling Rate (SAAR) for August auto sales was 19.0 million, which was third highest level ever. Additionally, July's rate was revised upward to 18.7 million from 17.3 million.

A recent study conducted by the Transportation Department revealed that the average household has 1.9 vehicles, but only 1.75 drivers.
An auto bubble?
Surely record breaking car sales must come to an end soon.

Remarx

(09/04/2003; 05:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108127)

Re: Keynes

@Jacob Marley #108123: Thank you! Much to think about there, and I will re-read your post carefully. I fully appreciate your pragmatic view of things; that kind of approach speaks much more to me than dogmatically viewing JMK as a 'madman who has ruined the world'.

@Max Rabbitz #108114: The snippet was from Keyenes, not Marx. That was why it seemed odd to you!

turkey hunter

(09/04/2003; 05:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108128)

why gold is glittering

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/03/markets/gold/Good article on CNN Money site.

Goldbug 1

(09/04/2003; 06:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108129)

Closed for lack of interest?

Can anyone tell me why the gold market appears to be closed today?

Goldbug 1

(09/04/2003; 06:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108130)

Disregard my silly question........

I see NY has opened, must have been a holiday in Asia and/or Australia earlier.

Paper Avalanche

(09/04/2003; 07:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108131)

@slingshot

My posting yetserday that Abbey Joseph Cohen had predicted gold to hit $227 in 2004 was joke. I was attempting to illustrate absurdity with absurdity. I just want to make sure that you didn't read the first part of my posting only and thought that it was true. I aopologize for any confusion.

Thanks!
PA

Melting Pot

(09/04/2003; 07:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108132)

Recognizing Sovereign Default and Banking Risks.....

http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/358/10823_deposit.htmlSoviet People's Bank Deposits Gone for Good

The state will never be able to pay the debt to depositors

SNIP:

Governmental officials say, Russia should pay the foreign debt on time. For some reason, they scarcely mention something about the domestic debt. The government pays billions to foreign banks, cutting Russian people's social guarantees. In 1993 the Russian Constitutional Court pointed out, the government should not delay compensations for population's deposits. A lot of prime ministers have been changed during the decade, but no one of them was responsible for violating the law.

One may surely understand the government - it is very hard to obtain such huge sum of money. Academician Nikolay Petrakov said, the debt is about eight or nine trillion rubles worth. In other words, the debt is three times the country's annual budget. Economists calculated, if the government decided to return the debt to the people, it would be necessary to spend one-third of the national GDP during 40 years. Russian people's deposits are gone for good as a result of Yegor Gaidar's economic reforms. His close companion Yevgeny Yasin does not conceal it from reporters: "The state will never be able to return those savings. This problem cannot be solved." However, Sberbank builds fashionable offices nationwide - those offices are built on depositors' money.

END

Think about the Gokhale and Smetters Report: US $43.5 trillion in debt and growing over a trillion a year. And just like Russia, the US state will never be able to pay the debt to depositors........

Gold to $300, $227, $150 bla, bla, bla.....the WBO and A Cohen have been wrong for 3 years running, not to mention the structural sovereign, corporate and fractional reserve debts and derivatives pyramid that can never ever ever be paid because of compound interest.

The antigold war has begun in earnest, the fuse is lit and the Debt / IR time bomb is about to explode as envisioned by ANOTHER and BIG TRADER. Don't believe it? Try to withdraw $10K cash out of your bank.

From Russia with love.........

PS: Do you take the red pill, or the blue pill?

Gold never defaults! Caveat Emptor

Dollar Bill

(09/04/2003; 07:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108133)

*>*

Sir Socrates964, you said
"Note that in the 1970s, the Arabs were in a position to buy the world. In the 1980s, the Japanese were. Because of cultural barriers, neither managed to exploit the opportunity very effectively. I would bet that the Chinese will do a much better job."

Socrates964

(09/04/2003; 07:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108134)

J Marley

1. You make some excellent points in your post - most notably about the Euro being designed to accommodate gold, whose price should settle into a trading range at much higher levels. I may seem to go on a bit about my hyperinflationary experiences in Brazil, but I see a number of posters making conceptual errors regarding the dollar because they fail to distinguish between currencies as means of exchange and stores of value. The former function alone is likely to guarantee a long life for the dollar - although the exchange rate to the Yuan could theoretically go into the millions, and no-one would then want to keep their savings in it.

On this point, I admit to an error in yesterday's post. When I said that gold could go to $1m/oz, but that a Big Mac would cost $1,000, this should have been $10,000. Why?
Because my experience with hyperinflation taught me that relative prices under hyperinflation tend to be very stable, although they oscillate around equilibrium prices over time. Hence if a Big Mac costs $3.50 (i.e. 1% of an oz of gold) it is likely to continue costing 1% of an oz, barring some major change in availability of cattle/consumption patterns.

2. I nevertheless take issue with this:

"Instead money becomes more expensive, and hence harder to come by. So - goods demand diminishes, and with it the general price level, and with it unemployment goes up. But the paradox lies in that as the price level declines, real money supply increases, even though the nominal amount may not. This exerts the counterweight that 'should' help bring it all back into equilibrium again."

I'll have to dig out my copy of the General Theory, but as I recall, one of Keynes' main points was that under such conditions, industry would seek to hold up the price level and maximize profits by cutting back output. Rather than expanding the real money supply, therefore, the economy had an inherent tendency to reach an equilibrium well below that required to guarantee full employment. Hence government had a moral obligation to override the inherently selfish behavior of entrepreneurs and come to the aid of the workers.

As I've noted in the past, even Keynes couldn't resist the allure of the 'barbarous relic'. The final irony is that Keynes was 'out-fiated' by the Americans: the international currency he proposed, Bancor, was gold-backed, but Harry Dexter White managed to weaken the link to gold by inserting the dollar between it and all the other major currencies.

Skydog

(09/04/2003; 07:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108135)

@Melting Pot, your #108132

YOu said, "The antigold war has begun in earnest, the fuse is lit and the Debt / IR time bomb is about to explode as envisioned by ANOTHER and BIG TRADER. Don't believe it? Try to withdraw $10K cash out of your bank."

Last month, a colleague of mine in Orlando, Florida deposited a rather sizable check to his banking account. When he tried to withdraw $5000 in cash the bank manager asked him what he intended to do with it. His reply was, "I don't think that is any of your business!" The bank manager replied, "You're correct, however, we reserve the right to close your account anyway"...which they promptly did.

He is in the process of filing a commercial lien against them for violating his right to contract.

canamami

(09/04/2003; 07:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108136)

Reply to Socrates964

You make interesting points, particularly respecting the distinction between a means of exchange and a store of value.

My question: Can the two be completely divorced from one another? For example, has there ever been a means of exchange (i.e., "currency") which egregiously hyperinflated (akin to early Weimar Germany) which was not in the end replaced BOTH as a unit of exchange and a store of value? Once hyperinflation sets in, the currency must replaced in toto.

In brief, once a currency ceases to serve any meaningful (not ideal or perfect, merely meaningful) function as a store of value, then it also eventually must be replaced as a means of exchange.

a nation of one

(09/04/2003; 08:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108137)

...

It seems the question is whether the DOW can go above 10,000. Obviously it can, even if based only on widely publicized statements that stock values need not be related to returns but merely to potential growth. Another word for this is optimism. "Creating confidence" is a valid way to think of it. Confidence games are noted for their alacrity in building up assurances, then extracting money from the assured. Also, to me, the time scale seems blatant. Early September, following a three month season that saw very strong pog, and an upward DOW based on small volume with no real business advance, a lull in the war, people coming back to work after being on vacations, a month to go before reason sets in. Surely the stock buying power of those who are awake must exceed that of those perpetually sleep. These have been selling stocks and buying gold. Some people use the airwaves to promote their own purposes. Few tell the news.

Socrates964

(09/04/2003; 08:41:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108138)

canamami

"My question: Can the two be completely divorced from one another? For example, has there ever been a means of exchange (i.e., "currency") which egregiously hyperinflated (akin to early Weimar Germany) which was not in the end replaced BOTH as a unit of exchange and a store of value? Once hyperinflation sets in, the currency must replaced in toto."

In theory, you're right, all currencies are eventually replaced -although they may be replaced by something equally rotten that just has a few less noughts on the end or a new name.

In practice, it all depends on monetary policy. In order to end hyperinflation, you have to administer nasty medicine by confiscating savings/repudiating debts or, as Brazil did in 1994 introducing a new currency at a massively inflated conversion rate which allowed producers/retailers enormous profits upfront that made a stable price commitment more palatable.

In some cases (e.g. Turkey), there is no political will to tackle underlying economic problems, so that hyperinflation becomes institutionalized through the wholesale adoption of indexation mechanisms. Evidently, at some point, the Turks will elect a strongman who will tackle the issue, but what you must appreciate is that there is a world of difference between Weimar Germany, where there were no portections against inflation, and Brazil in the 80s and 90s/contemporary Turkey, where you were screwed slowly and comfortably over several decades.

My own gut feeling is that the US public lack the sang-froid/fatalism of the Brazilians/Turks and are much more likely to freak out and demand an instant political solution to a slumping dollar, simply because of cultural factors (nor will there be any shortage of unscrupulous politicians to provide one).

The most important thing to appreciate, however, is that long before this process reaches its conclusion, a distrust of the dollar will gradually develop. You can see early signs, in that Russians apparently prefer to stuff their matresses with euros.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/04/2003; 10:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108139)

Bullion priced right to help you build your financial base.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Buy here at LOW PREMIUM (only 1% over our cost) and enjoy free shipping on 25 ounces. Why pay more elsewhere?

admin

(09/04/2003; 10:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108141)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Updated.
New Quick Notes.
Comment on the [flawed] World Bank gold analysis:

Speaking of the World Bank, in a second report issued yesterday, it predicted that the gold price would fall below the $300 mark in the months to come due to new mine production coming on line and a slowdown to the dehedging process. I wouldn't quarrel with the comment on dehedging (i.e., it is likely to slow down, though even that is open to debate). I would add though that hedging has been a major drag to the gold price since the early 1990s and with that strategy now relegated for the interim to the dust bin of gold market history, prospects for the yellow metal are significantly brighter as a result. It is the absence of hedging which will help the price of gold in the long run with the recent buy-backs amounting to some short-term icing on the cake.............. The comment about "increased production" from the mines is in direct conflict with statements made by members of the industry themselves who admit that depleted exploration budgets have most of the majors in a static to declining production mode for a long time to come...........Trying to make some sense out of what appears to be an insensible report, I wonder how much of this attitude toward gold at the World Bank has to do with all the third world gold lending and sales that institution has quietly sanctioned, or least looked the other way on over the years, and how much has to do with honest market research and analysis. In the case of gold sales, the price increases over the past two years raise the question why the reserves were given up for paper promises in the first place. Beyond the poor portfolio performance already logged, some of these same institutions when they put on their gold lender hat have run the risk of never seeing their gold again in the wake of massive gold carry trade defaults up and down the line. Is it any wonder that we see a report like this published as the forces of a gold bull market gather strength??....... Perhaps in the end, that is what's behind this report which suspiciously goes against the bullish grain in the current gold market. The World Bank -- a Keynesian institution from the beginning and, in the final outcome, a Keynesian institution still, and all-the-while anti-gold as they come."

_____

Also a comment on the Great Wall of Indifference TreasSec encounters in Asia........

Great Albino Bat

(09/04/2003; 11:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108142)

A bank owner and Pres. of same, sells choice assets off....

In Spain, the president and part owner of Eurobank has been relieved of his post by the Banco de Espa--a, the Spanish Central Bank, due to irregularities at his bank, Eurobank.

Among other things, the president of Eurobank, which is in liquidation, SOLD OFF ASSETS AT BELOW APPRAISED VALUE.

This may explain the funny and seemingly irrational actions of Central Banks around the world, who have LENT or SOLD OFF their gold, with no likelihood of ever seeing it again.

What's going on? It might well be, that the actual owners of those Central Banks - not the legal owners, but those shady characters who order things done, from behind the scenes - may well have seen years ago, what is clearly apparent today: that debt is totally out of control and a great deal of it will be uncollectable; which means that the CBs are done for, their goose is cooked; their usefulness at one time, is gone, and these banks are History as we write.

What to do? Sell off the CB assets at the lowest possible prices, so the shady characters can pick up lots and lots of gold, with which they will be the Masters (once again) when this present "Financial Architecture" is dust.

Seen this way, that silly selling and leasing of irrecoverable gold, makes a lot of sense.

Guano from the GAB

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 11:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108143)

U.S. dollar gets propped up as Japan steps in, BOJ buys

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030903/markets_forex_intervention_1.htmlTOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan was seen intervening in the foreign exchange market intermittently above 116 yen on Thursday, selling yen for dollars, traders said.

-----------

Thanks, BoJ. I will spend them, weak or strong, but am always happiest to spend them strong -- receiving more gold and other tangibles for each dollar. So while I work to enjoy a better lifestyle through my various purchases (food on the table, gold savings, and a truck with a full tank of fuel) I hope you never grow weary of your growing stash of U.S. bonds instead.

In simple terms, that is where the rubber meets the road.

R.

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 11:38:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108144)

Fed funds market trading in line with FOMC target, Fed adds $13 billion

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_fed_openmarket_2.htmlToday $9 billion was added to the reserves of the banking system through overnight repos, and $4 billion was added longer term via 28-day RPs, thus easily negating today's maturity effects of $12.25 billion previously added.

There is no meaningful limit to the Fed's power to add money to the lendable reserves of the nation's banking system. That is not to say there is no meaningful consequences to same. Protect your purchasing power with hard asset diversification.

R.

(09/04/2003; 11:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108145)

CyclePro Elliott Wave Prespective on gold

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htmOne way of enjoying summer time while sitting on physical gold is to figure out Elliott counts. It is not particularly useful but it better then watching the TV. Anyway, Cyclepro tries to improve on the Elliott count of Alf Field (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field082603.html )

He says:
Alf Field wrote a nice artice at 321 Gold website: "Elliott Wave and the Gold Price". Mr. Field displays his wave outlook and projection for the completion of the first major wave up. CyclePro agrees with his assessment of the minor wave 1 up to $382 in February, 2003, but for the subsequent wave 2 we have a difference of opinion. From my earlier forecast commentary, I said that I thought a 2 month correction (for minor wave 2) was too short for wave 1 which was 23 months. I had categorized this shorter wave 2 as my alternate count. For my preferred count, I was expecting a more complicated wave 2 structure where the move down from $382 to $320 was wave "A" followed by an anticipated complicated "B" rally, then later followed by another sell-off for "C" that took the price down to the low $300's. What I think we are seeing in the chart now is my "B" wave being played out in a 5 wave structure (labeled a-b-c-d-e) to complete "B". Until gold prices move substantially above the previous wave 1 high this scenario remains viable. In this scenario, my subsequent outlook for wave "C" is good support at $318-320 area with $305 area as the most likely maximum pullback.

Ag Mountain

(09/04/2003; 12:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108146)

canamami, Socrates; exchange vs. store of value

Good thoughts. We shouldn't miss the subtle fact that around the world the means of exchange (I'll call it currency) generally all fail as a store of value, some moreso than others.

That's why banks have to pay various interest on savings accounts, and that's why bonds exist with yields. The more the currency fails as a store of value, the more we see the market demanding higher interest for compensation.

Lots of contract and derivative arrangements can be used to keep a deadbeat currency on its feet (hedging against losses in purchasing power over time), so I'm not as quick as canamami to say once a currency ceases to serve a meaningful function as a store of value that it must be replaced as a means of exchange.

It might be better to say that once the hedging tricks and derivatives fail to bridge the gap, THEN we wake up to something completely different!

Gandalf the White

(09/04/2003; 12:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108147)

Who was it that said that $375. was being DEFENDED tooth and nail ?

Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) 9/4/03
Open $371.5 HIGH $376.0 low $370.7 Settle $374.0
Change from yesterday = -$1.0
Volume = 40389 Open Interest as of yesterday = 194,602
===
Looks as if the battle line is drawn !
Precious metal stocks are looking good today --
PERHAPS the GOLDEN day is near ?
<;-)

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 14:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108148)

That

was
a
fine
post,
Jake.

R.

Waverider

(09/04/2003; 15:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108149)

Oh Tears......

Another day without the DMR as Black Blade is working in the field....BUT....we DO get MKs Gold Commentary and Review...thank you!

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 15:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108150)

Reuters says... [I say...]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold was lifted off early lows by a weaker dollar Thursday, but closed in negative territory as commodity funds metabolized the piles of gold swelling their books after weeks of binge buying.

[Metabolizing the worthiness of these contracts to truly hedge anything in a paper storm.]

"Funds seem to be a little bit quieter today -- the market generally," said Bernard Hunter, a vice president at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "Some light physical demand is just enough to keep the market supported. It's getting some help from the dollar as well."

[Please note that merely "light" physical buying could not "keep the market supported" -- unless it were also true that the amount of physical metal being offered for sale were similarly "light". And that shred is true!]

...The firmer euro enhanced the bullion purchasing power of European investors.

[For many months running we continue to note how the media NEVER suggest similarly during periods of stronger dollars that it enhances the gold buying power of Americans.]

"People are a little disappointed by the fact that the market didn't have any follow through last night from yesterday's action. We were all looking for higher numbers," said a gold broker.

[Yes, looking for higher NUMBERS merely. That is the problem. They would get higher prices if they tried looking instead for a greater QUANTITY of metal.]

That's probably enough of that...

[R.]

Melting Pot

(09/04/2003; 15:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108151)

What of the LBMA mess? (ANOTHER) / Prospective German Sales of Gold.

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlWhat of the LBMA mess?

Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry ( same people buying ) there is none left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.

One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html

Prospective German Sales of Gold.

Speculation surrounding the future sales of gold by the leading Central Bank holders of Gold, received clarity today.

Within the auspices of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, the gold market has been speculating on the review and renewal of the "Washington Agreement". The market felt that the leading holders of gold want to sell their gold holding, but it became clear that the bulk of these sales would have to come from the leading Central Bank signatories to the Washington Agreement, Germany, France and Italy. The most talked about vocal of these three has been Germany, leading the market to believe they would be significant sellers.

Today, Thursday 4th September, Finance Minister Hans Eichel clarified Germany's position regarding sales of its own gold. He said that he would envisage the sale of only small quantities of gold by the Bundesbank if a new international agreement on gold sales is reached.

"The gold market is sensitive and if the Bundesbank takes part in a new gold agreement, they can only enter the market in small amounts," he said.

This is good news for the gold market whilst tacitly indicating that the other two, with a greater propensity to holding gold in their reserves, will not be significant sellers, if at all, of their own gold holdings.

With only minor Central Banks still indicating they would be sellers of gold, the market will have to get used to the idea of greatly diminished gold supplies emanating from the "Official" sources.

Additionally, his statements have encouraged the market to believe there will be a renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

Posted on behalf of

Gold-AuthenticMoney
Julian D. W. Phillips, Editor

A person thinking of purchasing physical gold should see the Bundesbank statement as fact. They openly admit to lending in the past and no chance of selling real gold in the future. This is a clear indication that a solid decision was made at the BIS meeting ( see my post ) ! All CBs will now slowly stop all leasing operations and allow the market to size itself. The important players, the oil states, will have their paper covered without question! But, for all others, the great scramble is about to begin!

Oil now must rise if the US$ and the currency system is to survive. Japan has reached the end. They must do their best to help the dollar rise against the yen. To this end they will maintain all US bonds and use all new capital to buy gold and oil!

U.S. dollar gets propped up as Japan steps in, BOJ buys

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030903/mark...rvention_1.html

TOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan was seen intervening in the foreign exchange market intermittently above 116 yen on Thursday, selling yen for dollars, traders said.

Any country without gold will be found in a disadvantaged state!

If you had oil in the ground, that over time could be worth over one trillion US$, would you buy gold for all to see? No. If you had this much wealth, would you want others to see you as getting "rich" from oil sales? No. How could you hold and build your massive wealth over many years, but still have everyone view this people as "in debt and just making it"?

The answer comes from the distant past. Take in gold as the CBs force it to fall against all other forms of value.

But, how can 100million + ozs of gold be equal to all the oil in Arabia? It all depends on how it's valued, simple yes?

If a CB says gold is $300oz, we say he is nuts! But, if $300 or $250 gold buy $19 oil, perhaps the CB is smart! It is far better if $19/oil buys $300 gold than $100/oil buy $5,000 gold!

What if the oil states offered to buy gold with oil, OUTRIGHT? No currencies involved. " We will produce flat out, all the oil you want. And, we offer this oil as payment, per barrel, to buy ( say? ) 25US dollars or gold priced by us, at ( say? ) $10,000oz.!"

The answer is very simple, the world would sell them gold for oil. I tell you now, this almost happened!

You think long and hard on this as the outcome would have been far different from what all think.

Instead, the BIS set up a plan where gold would be slowly brought down to production price. To do this required some oil states to take the long side of much leased/forward gold deals even as they "bid for physical under a falling market". Using a small amount of in ground oil as backing they could hold huge positions without being visible. For a long time they were the only ones holding much of this paper. Then, the Asians began to compete on the physical side.

How will this all end? As the CBs never sold much of their gold, they are still locked to the deals thru the BIS. In the real world it was stocks of gold outside the governments that got traded. And that trading multiplied many times. Today, more gold is traded than exists! This paper today, has become the "gold pricing standard" without backing. There is no way out! As we have now reached production cost, we have reached, "THE END"! Without real physical to supply the oil states, they WILL bid for gold with oil! The BIS will do the only thing they can, halt all trading and declare gold a "world oil currency"! To that end, all forms of paper gold will burn. How long till this starts? I understand that the CBs are slowly winding down lending, then sales. This will, no doubt start a paper panic at some time. It could take weeks or a year, I do not know.

As for the old agreement of oil/gold ratio, it went out the window after the gulf war.

Many wait for the next great bull market in gold to begin before they buy. Why buy now and lose interest or stock market gains? They will miss the greatest investment ever to come in ones lifetime! The powers of this world have already begun this motion. People of simple thought have but to buy physical gold and make low as the financial wars begin! You see, gold was cornered this year. It is done. No Central Bank will sell it's 50, 100, 200 million ozs gold when 600 million is needed! I ask you, how can currency price gold? Indeed, no price will work! You think any form of "paper gold" will stand this fire? Can we do battle with lions? When oil will not take currency without gold the havenots will not sit still!

"When a thousand hungry lions fight over one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with whats in their belly".

A world waits for something to happen that is done.

CoBra(too)

(09/04/2003; 16:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108152)

Snow in China

Wondering why Snow is trying to persuade the Chinese to loosen up on their currency controls, instead of implementing stiff import tariffs?
I guess, all of you do too, wondering I mean!

... and meantime France and Germany blasted and simultaneously rejected Powell's new UN resolution too - cb2

Operative

(09/04/2003; 16:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108153)

@ Melting Pot - Great Post!

Thank you for the summary/update from parts of the Trail.
Watching ANOTHER'S prophecy meld into the daily news headlines is both exciting and scary at the same moment. I cannot help but speculate on what the New World Order will look like. Not very good I am afraid. Bidding you a good evening sir, and thanks again.

Operative

(09/04/2003; 16:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108154)

@ Waverider

Passing the box of Kleenex to you.
Agreed, while MK offers up great reading material,(bowing towards MK) I do sorely miss that ole scraggly Blade and his "down home" writing style. We pray for his safe return soon, yes?

Operative

(09/04/2003; 17:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108155)

Mail For Gandalf

I have ordered a box of doggy treats from Pets R Us for you to hand out judiciously as you deem fit. A box of 'bones' for the boys, each marked with increasing numbers starting at 390 and thereafter in increments of ten. While not questioning the magical abilities of our beloved Wizard, I thought the boys would appreciate something they could sink thier teeth into from time to time as well. PS) enjoyed the light show earlier in the week, impressive!

Cavan Man

(09/04/2003; 17:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108156)

Hi Melting Pot

Can you provide the link to the German CB referenced comment/quote? Certianly is interesting on the eve of an IMF meeting in DUBAI. Wouldn't want to SPECulate too much there would we now?

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 18:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108157)

Cavan Man, you can find a hint of the quote within the latest article I posted

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) -

[...scroll down 12 paragraphs...]

...There was little reaction to statements from German Finance Minister Hans Eichel that he would envisage the sale of only a small amount of Bundesbank gold if a new international agreement on gold sales is reached.

The gold market has been helped in recent weeks by speculation that the 1999 Washington Agreement limiting European central bank gold sales could be renewed at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Dubai later this month.

The original pact expires at the end of 2004 and provided predictability on government gold disposals.

--------(see url, repeated above)-----

R.

Federal_Reserves

(09/04/2003; 19:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108158)

NASDAQ Dog of the DAY? CERS

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cers31% drop in a single day. No earnings, and a clinical trial goes bad. Imagine if you held a bagload of
this one. I'd want to take someone to trial. But then you would have to be clinically insane to buy it in the first place.

Why do people waste time investing in a piece of paper with no profit and no chance of ever making one?

OUCH!

steady

(09/04/2003; 19:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108159)

revaluing currency question

if china lets there currency revalue wont that mean that in terms of gold it will devalue gold for them even stimulating there appetite more? check mate on level two of threee dimensional chess!

silvester

(09/04/2003; 19:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108160)

usagold.com msg#: 108148

Who's Jake?

Paper Avalanche

(09/04/2003; 19:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108161)

@Melting Pot - RE: (9/4/03; 15:32:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 108151)

Brilliant.

I am honored to be in your company.

PA

Remarx

(09/04/2003; 20:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108162)

Doin' my ABC's

Just received my copy of the "ABC's of Gold Investing" and have read a great deal of it already this evening. The first chapter helped me to understand intellectually where my instincts have been leading me over the past few months. Thank you Marie, and, of course, Mr. Kosares!

TownCrier

(09/04/2003; 20:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108163)

Hi Silvester

With 'Jake' I was using a familiar form of Jacob, in reference to the post offered by Jacob Marley today.

R.

Operative

(09/04/2003; 20:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108164)

UN: Foreign Investments Falling

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAFZKNK7KD.htmlUS and UK big losers with investers says the UN. Exception near bottom of article says mining was one area continuing to see dollar flows into.

Gandalf the White

(09/04/2003; 20:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108165)

Sir Silvester's Question --- <;-)

silvester (9/4/03; 19:38:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108160)
(Re: TC's message --)usagold.com msg#: 108148
Who's Jake?
==
Sir Silvester, I am guessing that "Jake" was the author of message # 108140 -- and did not desire to maintain his Forum posting status by following the easy rules of this Forum.
<;-)

Operative

(09/04/2003; 20:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108166)

Innovative Way To Avoid The "Bone Pile"

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA83GXI7KD.htmlCanada giving millions to US company to keep plant in Canada instead of moving to Mexico. An idea whose time is now upon us? Wonder how many extra printing presses our government would need to keep what is left of our manufacturing here in the US from "offshoring"?

Gandalf the White

(09/04/2003; 20:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108167)

OOPS --- Thanks for the REAL Answer Town Crier !

You had me faked out also !
<;-(

Operative

(09/04/2003; 20:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108168)

On The Other Hand.....ANOTHER Take On The Spin By The World Bank

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030904/15/3dy0r.htmlLooks like the Gold/PM Funds are sure to repeat last year's outstanding performance. Gold going higher.

Operative

(09/04/2003; 20:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108169)

Why Gold Is Glittering

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/03/markets/gold/Article explains (what you will NOT hear/see on CNBC) some of the reasons our favorite metal is moving upward. Will give this writer some credit for acknowledging some of gold's more valid points.

misetich

(09/04/2003; 20:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108170)

"What, WE Worry?"

http://www.pimco.com/IO/Sep03/index.htmSnip:

My book's thesis rests on the growing reality that the U.S. is overextended, not just militarily but economically. We are trying to do too much, borrow too much, spend too much and sooner, perhaps later, we will have to suffer the consequences. We are a country in the beginning stages of what can be aptly described as hegemonic decay.
............
Empires take decades if not centuries to wither and the perspective is more easily viewed from a rear view mirror as opposed to a windshield.
.............
Chart III shows the potential for Chinese water torture in two different forms. First since its monthly trade surplus of $10 billion+ with the United States implies a $120 billion annual addition to its dollar reserves, there will come a time when their hundreds of billions if not a half trillion or so in holdings of U.S. notes and bonds look a tad too risky. In turn the hundreds of billions that the Japanese and other Asian countries have been buying in order to keep their currencies competitive with the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) and the U.S. dollar will be subject to a sanity check as well. The currency/bonds/stocks of a reflating economy engaged in guns and butter, Hummer and Hummvee spending of near historical proportions are bad investments. Sooner, perhaps later, our Asian creditors will wake up and smell the coffee. Perhaps their java will take the form of dollar or Treasury Note sales. Perhaps the aroma will resemble a revaluation of the Yuan and then the Yen. Either way we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living. Mark these words well for what they're worth (not much some will say): China holds the keys to our kingdom, and our Hummers. Their willingness to buy our bonds, their philosophy of fixing their currency to the U.S. dollar will one day be tested. And should their patience be found wanting, all of their neighboring Asian China wannabes will move in near unison. Reflation's second round will have begun, U.S. interest rates will rise, our goods in the malls and the showrooms will be less affordable, and the process of national belt tightening and increased savings will have begun. Are the Newman's worrying yet? Not if they bought stocks six months ago. Not if they refinanced their home in early June or bought that Hummer with 0% financing. But they will. The Newman's represent your future, your country, and your money and to think otherwise would clearly be MAD.

*************
Misetich

Gross on a roll. Is he accumulating Gold?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Operative

(09/04/2003; 21:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108171)

Central Bank Paying Double For Gold

http://allafrica.com/stories/200309040472.htmlA most interesting development. Near end of article I believe a typo occured. Should read tons not ounces is my guess.

(09/04/2003; 21:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108172)

All....

It occurred to me today that we are nearing our fifth anniversary on September 20th. We will have a major contest.....and generally celebrate this extraordinary discussion group. We have come a long way from that hectic first day when I basically was trying to handle the whole load myself (didn't last long). We had a lot of posting code requests but only a handful who actually posted.

That was a day interesting firsts.

Our first poster was 'bmacd' who inadvertently helped create the Round Table concept by summoning the nerve to make that first post. For doing so I remarked that she should be called 'the Lion-Hearted'. The concept developed from there and lingers to this day.

Our first double post....by FOA!

Our first prediction (by FOA): " I think myself and Another will have much participation with this new discussion group! It will, no doubt, be followed by many Gold investors." He was right on that one, too.

Since that first day, the discussion has been continuous without a single day passing where somebody somewhere didn't have something to say about gold and the economy.

Looks like Ph in LA and Goldfly, and of course FOA (assuming he returns some day) are our longest continuous posters...

It's been a great ride, my fellow goldmeisters. In humble appreciation........MK

Gandalf the White

(09/04/2003; 21:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108173)

Thanks SIR MK ! <;-)

MK (9/4/03; 21:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 108172)
>SNIP>
All.... It occurred to me today that we are nearing our fifth anniversary on September 20th. We will have a major contest.....
===
WOWSERS -- Fifth Anniversary CONTEST !!
I knew you had something up your sleeve.
<;-)

mikal

(09/04/2003; 22:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108174)

Asian countries' U.S. holdings maxxed?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/willettalway090503.htmlThe Hashimoto Factor
Brady Willett & Todd Alway
Excerpts: "Asian countries are estimated to be in control of more than 70% of global currency reserves, or more than $1.2 Trillion in U.S. dollars.� Accordingly, any significant attempt at disinvestment by a major holder of U.S. debt � China, Japan � or concerted sell-off by a collection of lesser players � Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore (which hold more in U.S. Treasuries combined than Mainland China) � would invariably produce a precipitous decline in the greenback. Under such a scenario the U.S. economy would threaten a complete collapse regardless of any attempted stimulus measures from the Fed or government.....
In short, since other countries continue to mirror Japan's penchant for U.S. debt, since foreign ownership of U.S. assets has reached unprecedented (from available data) levels, and since burgeoning U.S. dollar reserves are stocked inside Asian central banks, the dynamics of the U.S. backed neo-liberal order have, seemingly suddenly, been altered. This doesn't foretell of fire and brimstone raining down on the U.S. economy at any moment � ratios such as debt/GDP, and current account deficit/GDP are hardly absolutes in predicting near term capital movements, and economists like Krugman have been arguing that "the dollar is vulnerable" and "foreigners are reluctant to make long-term financial commitments to the U.S. economy" since 1991 (or before the real explosion in foreign investment arrived) but it does show a crack in the foundations of the American empire. Quite frankly, should current trends continue the consent of foreign governments will be the main force holding the U.S. world order together � reversing the hostage situation the U.S. previously and currently imposes on many economies. In the future, the U.S. rather than its former dependants may be the one subject to the "austerity" measures demanded by bondholders."

mikal

(09/04/2003; 22:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108175)

Does the hard sell end at next month's auction?

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr090403.shtmlFOLLY & FRAUD
WHAT IT'S REALLY COSTING US
By: Ed Henry -Excerpt:
"The national debt has increased $561.8 billion so far this year with one month to go before we reach the close of the government's fiscal year on September thirtieth. This represents the real deficit, not what the Beltway Bandits and their loyal or ignorant propaganda spinsters tell you.
Here is the sad fact, direct from the U.S. Treasury's
Bureau of Public Debt to the penny:
The column titled "Investors" is what the government calls "Debt Held by the Public" and is meant to lull you into believing that's all you must repay plus annual interest.
The column titled "Entitlements & Perks" is what the government assigns the dubious title of "Intragovernmental Holdings" to make you believe that the government owes itself, that one governmental department owes another, or that it can be paid off without taxpayer money. It's a complete scam and requires explanation.
Ninety-three percent of the "Entitlements & Perks" category is composed of 19 entitlement trust funds that are not real trusts; i.e., they have no viable assets�only debt markers. The other seven percent is composed of more than 120 trust funds that represent "perks" for federal employees, politicians, judges, and "gift accounts" for various departments. There are also a few philanthropic accounts where the cash was spent long ago. (see "Trust Fund List")
Essentially, surplus money generated by entitlements like Social Security are ripped off by the government in a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, and other private sector crooks look like children at play. The result is double taxation through the pretense of being able to both spend and save the same money.
What's important to notice today is twofold.
First, during the month of August the government was not able to borrow as much money under legitimate contract with investors as they would have liked. Call it a decline in confidence on the part of investors or what others have called "the perfect storm" affecting the bond market.
After borrowing $86 billion in July, the government was only capable of selling $45 billion worth of treasuries in August when they put much more on the block."

MarkeTalk

(09/04/2003; 23:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108176)

Bear rally in US Dollar over?

The action of the foreign currencies over the last two days has convinced me that the nine-week bear market rally in the US Dollar is over. There appears to be stiff overhead resistance at 99.50, where the US Dollar Index has bumped its head three times. With today's big jump in the Euro and similar rally in gold from its daily lows, the US Dollar Index sold off sharply at the end of the trading session. In tonight's overseas markets, the Euro and Swiss are extending their gains, thus breaking out of their basing chart patterns.

From a seasonal and cyclical perspective, the fall months are usually good for gold and the currencies while bad for equities. I have no reason to believe otherwise this time around. And with the approach of the second anniversary of September 11th (on a full moon nonetheless), tensions will be heightened even more. The telephone was ringing this afternoon at Centennial, which is a barometer of people's anxiety in general. For those clients of mine who missed my post yesterday, I encourage you to review your gold and/or silver holdings. If you need to add to them, please call me before the market begins to run away to the upside. I am on extension 102.

GC

slingshot

(09/04/2003; 23:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108177)

Paper Avalanche

I took the bait. Hook,Line and Sinker. AJC has a very low credibility with me. Guess I am tired of all the negative press on Gold. With all the egg on my face, I will just have to make an omelette ;0)

Slingshot---------------------<>

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 00:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108179)

A reminder for Druid -- ex msg#: 108178

As is requested in the forum guidelines, and specifically stated at the bottom of the posting page:

"Please do not ... promote competitors ... [etc etc]..."

Thanks for your kind attention and understanding of this important business detail.

R.

Druid

(09/05/2003; 00:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108180)

TownCrier (9/5/03; 00:45:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 108179)

My apologies, as soon as I hit the submit button, I realized my mistake. Thanks for the reminder.

Druid

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 01:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108181)

Another timely excerpt in light of recent discussion topics

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/assignats.htmlFrom the Gilded Opinion this time, for the consideration especially of Mssrs AgMountain, canamami, and Socrates on currency and store-of-value.

excerpts from: " "

...Mingled with the financial argument was a strong political plea. The National Assembly had determined to confiscate the vast real property of the French Church,--the pious accumulations of fifteen hundred years. There were princely estates in the country, bishops' palaces and conventual buildings in the towns; these formed between one-fourth and one-third of the entire real property of France, and amounted in value to at least two thousand million livres. By a few sweeping strokes all this became the property of the nation. Never, apparently, did a government secure a more solid basis for a great financial future.

There were two special reasons why French statesmen desired speedily to sell these lands. First, a financial reason,--to obtain money to relieve the government. Secondly, a political reason,--to get this land distributed among the thrifty middle-classes, and so commit them to the Revolution and to the government which gave their title.

It was urged, then, that the issue of four hundred millions of paper, (not in the shape of interest-bearing bonds, as had at first been proposed, but in notes small as well as large), would give the treasury something to pay out immediately, and relieve the national necessities; that, having been put into circulation, this paper money would stimulate business; that it would give to all capitalists, large or small, the means for buying from the nation the ecclesiastical real estate, and that from the proceeds of this real estate the nation would pay its debts and also obtain new funds for new necessities: never was theory more seductive both to financiers and statesmen.

It would be a great mistake to suppose that the statesmen of France, or the French people, were ignorant of the dangers in issuing irredeemable paper money. No matter how skillfully the bright side of such a currency was exhibited, all thoughtful men in France remembered its dark side.

They knew too well, from that ruinous experience, seventy years before, in John Law's time, the difficulties and dangers of a currency not well based and controlled.

They had then learned how easy it is to issue it; how difficult it is to check its overissue; how seductively it leads to the absorption of the means of the workingmen and men of small fortunes; how heavily it falls on all those living on fixed incomes, salaries or wages; how securely it creates on the ruins of the prosperity of all men of meagre means a class of debauched speculators, the most injurious class that a nation can harbor,--more injurious, indeed, than professional criminals whom the law recognizes and can throttle; how it stimulates overproduction at first and leaves every industry flaccid afterward; how it breaks down thrift and develops political and social immorality.

All this France had been thoroughly taught by experience. Many then living had felt the result of such an experiment--the issues of paper money under John Law, a man who to this day is acknowledged one of the most ingenious financiers the world has ever known; and there were then sitting in the National Assembly of France many who owed the poverty of their families to those issues of paper. Hardly a man in the country who had not heard those who issued it cursed as the authors of the most frightful catastrophe France had then experienced.

And it would also be a mistake to suppose that the National Assembly, which discussed this matter, was composed of mere wild revolutionists; no inference could be more wide of the fact. Whatever may have been the character of the men who legislated for France afterward, no thoughtful student of history can deny, despite all the arguments and sneers of reactionary statesmen and historians, that few more keen-sighted legislative bodies have ever met than this first French Constitutional Assembly. In it were such men as Siey�s, Bailly, Necker, Mirabeau, Talleyrand, DuPont de Nemours and a multitude of others who, in various sciences and in the political world, had already shown and were destined afterward to show themselves among the strongest and shrewdest men that Europe has yet seen.

But the current toward paper money had become irresistible. It was constantly urged, and with a great show of force, that if any nation could safely issue it, France was now that nation; that she was fully warned by her severe experience under John Law; that she was now a constitutional government, controlled by an enlightened, patriotic people,--not, as in the days of the former issues of paper money, an absolute monarchy controlled by politicians and adventurers; that she was able to secure every livre of her paper money by a virtual mortgage on a landed domain vastly greater in value than the entire issue; that, with men like Bailly, Mirabeau and Necker at her head, she could not commit the financial mistakes and crimes from which France had suffered under John Law, the Regent Duke of Orleans and Cardinal Dubois.

Oratory prevailed over science and experience. In April, 1790, came the final decree to issue four hundred millions of livres in paper money, based upon confiscated property of the Church for its security. The deliberations on this first decree and on the bill carrying it into effect were most interesting; prominent in the debate being Necker, Du Pont de Nemours, Maury, Cazal�s, Petion, Bailly and many others hardly inferior. The discussions were certainly very able; no person can read them at length in the "Moniteur," nor even in the summaries of the parliamentary history, without feeling that various modern historians have done wretched injustice to those men who were then endeavoring to stand between France and ruin.

This sum--four hundred millions, so vast in those days, was issued in assignats, which were notes secured by a pledge of productive real estate and bearing interest to the holder at three per cent. No irredeemable currency has ever claimed a more scientific and practical guarantee for its goodness and for its proper action on public finances. On the one hand, it had what the world recognized as a most practical security,--a mortgage an productive real estate of vastly greater value than the issue. On the other hand, as the notes bore interest, there seemed cogent reason for their being withdrawn from circulation whenever they became redundant.

...the National Assembly, to explain the advantages of this new currency, issued an address to the French people. In this address it spoke of the nation as "delivered by this grand means from all uncertainty and from all ruinous results of the credit system." It foretold that this issue "would bring back into the public treasury, into commerce and into all branches of industry strength, abundance and prosperity."

Some of the arguments in this address are worth recalling, and, among them, the following:--"Paper money is without inherent value unless it represents some special property. Without representing some special property it is inadmissible in trade to compete with a metallic currency, which has a value real and independent of the public action; therefore it is that the paper money which has only the public authority as its basis has always caused ruin where it has been established; that is the reason why the bank notes of 1720, issued by John Law, after having caused terrible evils, have left only frightful memories. Therefore it is that the National Assembly has not wished to expose you to this danger, but has given this new paper money not only a value derived from the national authority but a value real and immutable, a value which permits it to sustain advantageously a competition with the precious metals themselves."

But the final declaration was, perhaps, the most interesting. It was as follows:--

"These assignats, bearing interest as they do, will soon be considered better than the coin now hoarded, and will bring it out again into circulation."

The king was also induced to issue a proclamation recommending that his people receive this new money without objection.

All this caused great joy....

...There were, indeed, some gainsayers. These especially appeared among the clergy, who, naturally, abhorred the confiscation of Church property. Various ecclesiastics made speeches, some of them full of pithy and weighty arguments, against the proposed issue of paper, and there is preserved a sermon from one priest threatening all persons handling the new money with eternal damnation. But the great majority of the French people, who had suffered ecclesiastical oppression so long, regarded these utterances as the wriggling of a fish on the hook, and enjoyed the sport all the better.

The first result of this issue was apparently all that the most sanguine could desire: the treasury was at once greatly relieved; a portion of the public debt was paid; creditors were encouraged; credit revived; ordinary expenses were met, and, a considerable part of this paper money having thus been passed from the government into the hands of the people, trade increased and all difficulties seemed to vanish.

But soon there came another result: times grew less easy; by the end of September, within five months after the issue of the four hundred millions in assignats, the government had spent them and was again in distress.

The old remedy immediately and naturally recurred to the minds of men. Throughout the country began a cry for another issue of paper; thoughtful men then began to recall what their fathers had told them about the seductive path of paper-money issues in John Law's time, and to remember the prophecies that they themselves had heard in the debate on the first issue of assignats less than six months before.

At that time the opponents of paper had prophesied that, once on the downward path of inflation, the nation could not be restrained and that more issues would follow...

-----(see the url to continue your quest for info)------

In the aftermath of the aftermath, the Frenchmen learned a thing or two, and people would be wise to follow their hearts embracing physical gold as secure savings, wealth par excellence.

R.

Cavan Man

(09/05/2003; 05:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108182)

Vietnam and Waterloo

Social, political and economic JUSTICE are far cheaper!Hill Braces For Iraq Request
Lawmakers Want Details From Bush
By Mike Allen and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 5, 2003; Page A01

Lawmakers in both parties expressed surprise yesterday at the newly disclosed White House estimates for spending in postwar Iraq and said they will demand many details President Bush has withheld so far, including an exit strategy and a multiyear forecast, as the price of their support.

The White House has told congressional leaders to expect a budget request of $60 billion to $70 billion for occupying and rebuilding Iraq next year. White House officials said yesterday that the request is still in flux, and could be closer to $50 billion.

The plan could be submitted within the next two weeks, Capitol Hill sources said. The unexpectedly high amounts reflect a White House conclusion that Iraqi oil revenue and allies' contributions will be less than estimated before the war, the sources said.

LeSin

(09/05/2003; 06:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108183)

Update: Saudi Arabia & Russia Oil & Nat.Gas Co-op

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/29.html?mode=9&title_style=exclus&others=2&id_issue=5657020
Snip from the whole article:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia are major oil countries. Oil is among the primary sources of income for both countries. At the same time, oil is an important and efficient element in the world economy on the whole. This obliges us to cooperate and coordinate our activity on the world markets instead of competing," he said.
"This is essential for maintaining balance on the world oil market," he said.

Asked whether Russia could possibly join OPEC in the future and what role Russia could play in this organization, the prince said, "Russia is playing a positive role in supporting OPEC's initiatives aimed at setting oil prices and maintaining stability and balance on the world oil market. This is a very important role conforming to Russia's authority as a leading oil producer and exporter."

"As for Russia's accession to OPEC, this is exclusively Russia's decision, which can be made in light of Russia's interests," he said.

LeSin

(09/05/2003; 07:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108184)

Interesting Times - Alliance Shifts - Political Willing & Not Willing

Interesting is it not:

USA did not reveal facts to Saudis re 9/11, yet implicated and shamed the Saudis on the world stage. USA sent the Saudi Prince home shamed by the 9/11 report. Bush displayed NO diplomacy skills towards the Saudis with his arrogant stance against the Saudi request for information. Where were they to they go? Yes, Europe & Russia with very quiet talks with China.

Today Schroeder (Germany) & Chirac (France) dig their heels in re UN resolution for getting USA off the hook in Iraq. Basically - they are saying or not saying - it is your party Bush, Rummie and ilk

USA Democrats now on war path against Bush & Club. Where were they when they could have mattered? Most of those weasels voted to send the boys over there. Save a couple of prominent senior democrats that were howled down and mocked.

China refuses to devalue its' currency.

Saudi Arabia & Russia talking about predictable market control in oil and gas.

Time for ANOTHER strong surge of the Euro and major move up for Gold, while the US$ will slip as they print like mad.

When we smell smoke it is not just paper burning - it is the dollar printing press on warp print speed 24/7.

As our friends say at this table often say - "Gold, real Gold, the heavy carry kind of Gold, Cheap for the weight of it, Get you some quickly"
Cheers "S"

a nation of one

(09/05/2003; 07:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108185)

To TownCrier (09/05/03; 01:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 108181)

One particular paragraph in your post stands out:

"They had then learned how easy it is to issue it; how difficult it is to check its overissue; how seductively it leads to the absorption of the means of the workingmen and men of small fortunes; how heavily it falls on all those living on fixed incomes, salaries or wages; how securely it creates on the ruins of the prosperity of all men of meagre means a class of debauched speculators, the most injurious class that a nation can harbor,--more injurious, indeed, than professional criminals whom the law recognizes and can throttle; how it stimulates overproduction at first and leaves every industry flaccid afterward; how it breaks down thrift and develops political and social immorality."

* These things happen because we let them. It is our fault. If we want to prevent them, we have to take action. The consequences told of in the above quote do not occur on account of error, coincidence, or mistakes of understanding, but are the result of deliberate intentions on the part of those who create them.

---

When gold calms down to gain its strength, bears come out and raise their arms and growl. When it gets stronger, they go back in again. It is good to remember that to buy low and sell high, one must purchase when it doesn't seem worth buying, and sell when it looks like it will always go higher. Bears are lower animals. But bulls, at least, are somewhat domesticated.

Henri

(09/05/2003; 07:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108186)

Melting Pot 108151

Great reminder of how we got here. Call me simple minded but our first mistake was to offer gold in the first place and not water which is something we have in abundance and they do not. Simple logic. Water necessary for life, oil is not. Therefore water should command a higher price than oil or at least an equal price. perhaps with all that water the hanging gardens of babylon could reappear and all those nifty baths or even real gardens that grow...food! What a novel concept...grow your own food. Perhaps this will be the real end game to extract the gold back out of ME hands...when the oil runs out.

Jing Zu

(09/05/2003; 07:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108187)

Down.....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20030905/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dcLooks like more bad news for the economy. Many things seem to be happening.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are seen dropping at Friday's open after a report showed that U.S. employers unexpectedly slashed jobs in August, eroding investor hopes that the struggling labor market was on the mend.

Jing Zu

(09/05/2003; 07:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108188)

Looks like GOLD will be going back up. Huh?

That is what is supposed to happen.

Call USAGold and buy now!

If you want to have more security in the FUTURE.

That would be the proper way.

Remarx

(09/05/2003; 07:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108189)

Re: Store of Money

@TownCrier: #108181. Thank you for that reference. This intermittent store-of-value discussion is complementing what I am reading elsewhere. (I think I may have triggered it initially with a quote from Keynes a couple of days ago.)

a nation of one

(09/05/2003; 07:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108190)

trends

Looks like commodities are positioning to go higher:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=i&w=15&t=c&a=12

The dollar falleth:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Stocks fly up on wings of lead:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200

Across 380 anyone?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d6&w=1&t=f&a=200

Socrates964

(09/05/2003; 07:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108191)

Jobs report

US authorities nothing if not predictable with their spinning.

Seemed rather clear that you couldn't square the circle and have stocks going up to discount an economic recovery and bond markets staying buoyant enough to soak up lots more paper (particularly now that currency markets have turned round).

Since the latter market is 10 times larger than the former, it was pretty obvious which side the government would come down on.

Hence the bucket of cold water on the equity market. And surprise, surprise, we have Ben Bernanke making noises about the possible need for another rate cut.

May be wishful thinking on my part, but I think that an orchestrated slide in stocks is beginning. Now shake, shake, shake the tree and lots of capital gains tax revenue will fall out between now and November.

And gold? Well, as the Moroccan proverb says, 'the clouds are not troubled by the barking of dogs'. It should do nicely, if only in terms of the greenback.

Gandalf the White

(09/05/2003; 09:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108192)

WOWSERS --- They may be PUMPING the 30-Yr. Bond TODAY, BUT ---

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[df][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GLOOK at the VOLUME of yesterday's DOWN DAY !
(That is shown by the TALL gray colored bar rising from the base of the chart !)
SOMEONE is cashing in and most likely exchanging the US$ for something else. Perhaps, it is YELLOW ?
BTW, I soon will have a GOLD story to tell !
Right now, it is only causing HEADACHES !
<;-)

Zhisheng

(09/05/2003; 09:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108193)

Tooth and Nail.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1As Gandalf posted yesterday, $375 seems to be the battle line. Today the battle is sharp. Could be a nice jump if it gives way.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/05/2003; 09:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108194)

The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Save your "strength" -- call us today!

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 10:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108195)

WGC bits and pieces -- Canada sells 1/3 of gold reserve

http://www.gold.org/...in India, where the monsoon season has roughly three weeks left to run of its four-month duration, rainfall to date has been 3% higher than the norm, and a number of areas that had previously been suffering from drought conditions are reporting fertile land. The jewellery industry remains upbeat about prospects for demand, provided prices remain stable.

In India, the Corporation Bank has launched a loan scheme for salaried women to buy gold. The Bank's chairman and Managing Director, Mr. K Cheriyan Varghese, has outlined the "Corp Mahila Gold" scheme, under which employed women can take loans of up to Rp 250,000 (approximately $5,400) at 12.5% interest, to buy gold from the bank itself or in fabricated form from jewellers. The prevailing yield on a three-month Treasury Bill in India is 4.65%.

The German Finance Minister Hans Eichel told the press in a televised interview yesterday that if under a new Central Bank Gold Agreement next year Germany had a larger share of potential sales than it had under this current agreement, any disposals would only be in "small steps''.

The Canadian Government sold 135,720 ounces of gold in August (4.2 tonnes), leaving holdings at approximately 200,000 ounces (6.2t).

------------

Thanks, Canada, I got mine! (Well, it had to come from SOMEwhere). Every little bit helps. Now, who will fill the shoes when it's gone and when rising prices reveal gold to be the paramount financial holding of our time?

R.

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 10:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108196)

HEADLINE: COMEX gold's pop on weak jobs ignites precious group

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030905/markets_precious_comex_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) -

...Gold has seemed to defy gravity and the most extreme long position ever held by noncommercials. New participants have come out of the woodwork and every dip has been bought since December gold hit a 7-month high at $380.40 Tuesday.

More and more investors now see gold as a portfolio diversifier amid lingering skepticism about the recovery, especially with the recent spike in bond yields, and potentially destabilizing violence in the Middle East.

Traders were expected to turn their attention to the Commitments of Traders report due from the CFTC after the close Friday, to see if fund buying would bring another record net speculative long, topping last week's 100,227 contracts.

------(from url)-------

Have you effectively diversified your portfolio, or, like these speculators, have you merely added paper on top of paper? Only gold -- when in the form of metal -- is "good as gold".

R.

Operative

(09/05/2003; 11:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108197)

North London Hit By Blackout

http://www.thisislondon.com/news/articles/6552548?source=Evening%20StandardOne week after the major London power outage it is hit yet again. On a Thrusday Evening. Do I see a pattern developing?

Zhisheng

(09/05/2003; 11:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108198)

Up into the Close!

Except for painting the tape a little. Auspicious ending for the week.

$378.80 December Futures--$377.30 cash.

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 11:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108199)

The more you know...

http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030904.htmFrom yesterday's press conference on the decision of the ECB's Governing Council on monetary policy (rates were left unchanged).

Q&A insight to the ECB position on the nature of public versus privately driven economic stimulus...

Question:
The Italian finance minister, Mr. Tremonti, presented a couple of months ago his plan for public expenditure in Brussels and he also explained it to the ECB. And today Handelsblatt, the German newspaper, wrote that Mr. Schr�der and Mr. Chirac are also going to present such a European plan for public expenditure in order to boost economic growth. I would like to ask you if these plans first of all are consistent with the philosophy of the Stability and Growth Pact and what is your opinion about them?

ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos:
Well, in principle, the strengthening of infrastructure in the Union is, I would say, a generally desirable objective. And if done appropriately and financed appropriately, it could help to boost economic growth. However, the final assessment depends very much on how it is financed and on this I do not have, at present, detailed information in order to be able to give you a precise judgement. But it is crucial, of course, that the implementation of such plans does not impinge on and does not adversely affect the public finances of countries that are already facing serious fiscal constraints. So the short answer is: it depends.

Question:
Just a follow-up to the question of my Italian colleague. So you mean that a plan for infrastructure can boost growth, but it is better if it is mostly privately financed?

Papademos:
I think you could infer this from what I said. I said, more precisely, that the outcome will depend on the modalities of the financing and whether it will impinge on public finances in countries that are at present facing fiscal problems. And if it does, it will obviously increase the pressures and the problems associated with the excessive deficits that have been recorded in these countries and will make it more difficult to implement budgetary policies and so to bring the fiscal position in these countries closer to balance over the medium term, which � as we stressed in the Statement and as I stressed separately earlier � we believe is going to contribute to rather than adversely affect economic growth.
-----

Dollar... euro... dollar... euro... (she loves me... she loves me not...)

The euro remains poised to give the dollar a serious run for the money in international appeal and usage. Diversify with gold and don't sweat the outcome of the race.

R.

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 12:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108200)

ECB President Duisenberg chimes in from Calgary

http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030905_1.htmexcerpts:

I would like to say a few general words about the roles and, may I add, limitations of monetary and fiscal policy in reviving global demand...

By being strictly geared towards maintaining price stability in a credible and lasting manner, monetary policy makes an important contribution to achieving a high level of output and employment, and to sustaining growth. Confidence in lasting price stability removes the inflation risk premium on interest rates, ensuring low real interest rates, which in turn foster investment, growth and employment.

Theoretical and empirical evidence clearly confirm that there is no long-term trade off between price stability and economic growth. Trying to use monetary policy to fine-tune economic activity or to gear it above a sustainable level will, in the long run, simply lead to rising inflation � not to faster economic growth.

Fiscal policy also plays a key role in contributing to macroeconomic stability. Stable, sustainable and efficient fiscal policies exert a favourable effect on long-term growth performance. They stimulate savings, capital formation, employment and innovation. And they facilitate the task of the monetary policy-maker in maintaining price stability. Sound public finances should rely on automatic stabilisers, rather than discretionary fine-tuning, to dampen the cyclical fluctuations of aggregate demand.

Structural reforms in the labour and goods markets are a key element of any long-term strategy to improve investment, growth and employment prospects.
First, more flexible markets increase the speed with which countries can adapt to economic shocks, thereby speeding up economic recovery.
Second, increased competition in labour and product markets is conducive to a high level of innovation and the rapid spread of technological progress. This in turn supports long-term growth, without contributing to inflationary tendencies.
Third, structural reform may facilitate the transmission of monetary policy. In more rigid economies, interest rate changes are transmitted to prices after a longer delay, and structural barriers can prevent the economic efficiency gains of the primary objective of monetary policy � price stability � from being fully realised.

...the US experience shows that no country can consider structural reforms as "completed". In its latest Article IV report on the United States, the IMF identified a number of areas where further efforts would be desirable, including the budgetary framework, the social security system and the energy sector. Also, the series of corporate failures in 2001-02 revealed weaknesses in corporate governance practices, including accounting and audit rules, which are currently being addressed by the US authorities.

...as I have sketched out in my remarks to you today, while the need for structural reforms is pressing in the euro area, in all other regions of the world � albeit to different extents and to address somewhat different problems � there are benefits of structural reform to be won.

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 12:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108201)

Dollar gets small prop by Japanese again?

http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1062782961nN05164756&tit=Dollar%20rises%20vs%20yen,%20as%20traders%20cite%20Japan%20buying&type=internazionali&ling=ENNEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded above the 117.0 yen mark against the Japanese currency on Friday even as the greenback slumped against many other rivals, leading some New York-based traders to suspect the Bank of Japan or proxies had been actively engaged in yen-weakening intervention.

The dollar came under acute pressure against the euro and the Swiss franc, falling more than 1 percent against both as traders digested a weaker than expected U.S. August employment report...

Yet around midday in New York, the greenback went in the opposite direction against the yen ... for a gain of roughly 0.3 percent on the day.

At about the same time, the push of the euro higher against the yen ... was driven by Japanese accounts selling yen against the single European currency...

"People are just selling yen across the board because they believe that the BoJ will step in the dollar/yen (to buy dollars for yen) at 115.50 yen. We also heard that there were some big buyers of euros from Saudi Arabia," Walsh said.

------(see url)------

When oceans of currency are tossed about in a tempest of official management ever trending competitively toward weak and weaker, diversification through gold ownership is your safe haven.

R.

Gandalf the White

(09/05/2003; 12:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108202)

a BIG thanks to Sir Operative !

Operative (9/4/03; 17:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 108155)
Mail For Gandalf
I have ordered a box of doggy treats from Pets R Us for you to hand out judiciously as you deem fit. ----
===
Per your instructions, I tried a 'few' of these treats today !!
You can see that they are very effective.
What do you think that combining them with a little "Roo" meat will do ?
I shall be trying that NEXT WEEK !
390 390 390
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/05/2003; 12:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108203)

TGIF COMEX data ------ <;-)

Dec 03 Gold Contract (gc3z) Friday 9/5/03
Open $373.3 HIGH $380.9 low $371.9 Last $378.2 13:39
Settlement $378.7 Change +$4.7 Volume 32,084
Prior Close $374.0 Yesterday's Open Interest = 194,280
NICE job SPIKE and SPOT !
Note the $9.0 RANGE in today's COMEX action !
AND the open interest is getting close to the 200K level.
<;-)

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 12:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108204)

Positions

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4738684∾tion=articleSAN FRANCISCO (AFX) --
...December gold reached an intraday high of $380.90 an ounce -- its highest intraday level since early February with traders betting on long-term, strong demand for the metal.

-----(from url)-----

Betting on the race is not the same as owning the horse. Participating in a futures contract is but a day at Pimlico, whereas buying gold is having Seabiscuit living immortal in your stables.

R.

CoBra(too)

(09/05/2003; 14:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108205)

5 Year Anniversary of USAGOLD - coming up soon ...

and so is the POG 400 to tackle 500 and more.

At this juncture I would like to personally congratulate our host MK and his staff - the occasional, never the less brilliant articles of Marke Talk, alias George don't go unnoticed either. Also the perseverance and great input of our young, though wise beyond his years, TC, also known as Randy is to be lauded.

I just want to state that this site, including all past and present posters has immensely aided my confidence in gold investments. More so, it also opened new perspectives on the ever more globalized, though shrinking world of people still thinking reality and not accepting main stream and political correct (dis-)information.

I do consider myself lucky to have stumbled across this site early in my also early internet experiences.

Thanks again for the efforts of creating venue and Kudos to all participants - your eternal gold bug - cb2

PS: Just maybe we bugs could hold a celebration at one time and take over the Brown Palace to meet up in person for a day or two ...?

Cavan Man

(09/05/2003; 14:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108206)

Inflation Update

Duisenberg is right!Wife just back from grocery store. RAMEN (a college staple) is now 2 for .70 cents; down from 10 for a buck :>(. May we all eat french pastry, drink german beer and listen to Viennese waltzes at the "brown palace".Amen (bro's)

CoBra(too)

(09/05/2003; 15:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108207)

@CM - Duisenberg seems last years model -

We're cavin' out new shelters - let's call 'em Trichet's Trenches.

These guys are big enough to blast any treaty to smithereens - as soon as themselves. Good bye � conversion treatise and hello JMK socialism.

What's left is cravin' for gold before the cave'(i)n of da dollah system - Man of the Cavan - cb2

DryWasher

(09/05/2003; 17:25:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108208)

Future of Money Summit October 27-29 in Denver.

http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/index.phpTake a look at this guys! The above link is to a site that I just stumbled on and I just had to share it with you all. Following are a few excerpts taken from it:

"Your money is in jeopardy. The money world itself is in crisis, and the forces at play are not always evident. The money systems interwoven throughout our societies will undergo significant transformation as we better understand the global information age. Our confidence in money ebbs and flows with the strength of the market and forces are now pushing for global currency. Even the physical form of money continues to change. Where's it headed?"

"The mission of the Summit is to explore the evolving forms of money and the complex and broad-ranging effect it will have on technology, business, society, and public policy."

"On October 29, 2003 plans for the unveiling of the Terra, the world's first global trade reference currency, will be announced at the Future of Money Summit in Denver, Colorado."

DryWasher: Judging by the list of speakers and advisors some very important people are getting worried. GOLD, get you lots.

Federal_Reserves

(09/05/2003; 17:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108209)

Nasdaq Dog of the Day - VATA

Nasdaq Dog of the Day - VATAHow dare these tech idiots call us gold investors fanatics and idiots!

A minor drop of around 24%, a company of 119 employees, public? Selling "business logic"??, JAVA software at a loss?
What the hell is that? Come on! Who would invest in a clap trap like this? Booking a loss of over a buck a share to
boot?

Hell a single McDonald's store has that many employees, but sure enough the NASDAQ has this trash listed.
NASDAQ is a vast wasteland of money losing, dot.bomb flyotech stocks like this all under$5, mixed in with
the overvalued supertechs like CSCO, INTC, DELL, ORCL....the speculation in the trash is obsence only made legit by the pro-forma profits
of a few super overvalued supertechs. When they go public big $ for insiders, when the bottoms drop out the public takes the beating.

Its a giant scam game.

Who is buying this trash? In my day, it was hard for a piece of trash like this to get on the pink sheets much
less a major exchange, and nobody but idiot would have paid more than 10-15x earnings for a stock!

If the correction on the NASDAQ continues, trash like this is going to get carried out fast!

Cometose

(09/05/2003; 17:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108210)

@Federal Reserves

Go ahead , quit holding back , but this time , I want to know how you really feel....about Nasdaq and thanks for sharing the latest statistic....of nonsense

Paper Avalanche

(09/05/2003; 19:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108211)

The last shoe is about to drop....

I cannot believe that this has not been posted yet (I get to bring the good news to the mighty oaken table!). IMNSHO, one of the final acts in this monetary play will be when the US and Great Britain recognize that they are no longer able to resist the market forces being perpetuated by the other 5.6 billion people in the world and, upon such recognition, put in place financial vehicles by which their investors and financial institutions are able to readily divert paper investments to a traded security that will also rise with the price of gold. Is it a scam? Of course. All paper gold contracts are fraudulent by their very nature. That is not the importance of this event. The importance, rather, is the inidication that US/GB PTB have, in principal, conceded the gold fight and recognize that it is not a battle that is able to be won. Now it is time to lower the life boats. The ETF is a financial life boat that will quickly be hoisted aside the sinking dollar ship in the coming weeks as the end of the twenty plus year manipulation draws to a close before our very eyes. Ladies and genetlemen, I give you the story that I have been waiting to read for quite some time now:

WGC gold fund clears legal hurdle

By: Tim Wood

Posted: 2003/09/05 Fri 13:00 EDT | � Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW YORK -- Senior gold industry sources tell Mineweb that the Bank of New York has agreed to waive its claim against the World Gold Council's stalled exchange traded gold fund, Equity Gold. The settlement clears the way for the imminent launch of Equity Gold which is backed to absorb tonnes of gold as the WGC works to improve demand for the metal.
BONY's claim stems from an assertion that it has sole intellectual property rights to a particular form of ETF that encompasses the WGC fund's proposed basket structure.

It is understood that the WGC will grant BONY trusteeship of Equity Gold as the quid pro quo. That displaces HSBC, but the bank will retain its role as custodian and advisor. Mineweb has also been told that there are no custodial problems overhanging the fund's bullion foundation.

An agreement is currently in the process of being drafted and should allow Equity Gold's registration statement to finally clear the SEC. The delays have been expensive in view of gold's sustained strength after evaporating the Iraq war premium.

The fund is a radical departure for the WGC which has historically focused most of its demand management on jewellery offtake; not always with good results for the money spent if the Glow With Gold campaign is a bellwether.

The industry was also rocked by an open challenge to the WGC when some producers called in McKinsey & Co. to provide an alternative demand strategy. That appeared in October 2001 as the Gold Marketing Initiative and suggested that a co-ordinated effort could add 340-500 tonnes per annum in gold jewellery demand by 2006, drive prices up between $30-40/oz and generating a net present value of $9-12 billion for producers.

That GMI received a lukewarm response and was eventually folded into WGC arrangements.

Pent up demand

WGC sponsors are confident Equity Gold will unlock pent up institutional demand for bullion.

Former Calpers boss, James Burton, was hired expressly to talk gold into the portfolios of institutions that have traditionally shunned the metal or have little knowledge of it. Burton's record at Calpers shows that he never directed any serious investment into gold, but it is thought he will preach a useful conversion message to the general industry.

An industry executive says American institutions have been driven off gold investments for several reasons that Equity Gold will address.

However, institutions have long been able to invest in gold proxies like the Central Fund (CEF) which is listed on the American Stock Exchange and which has maintained horse-hair shirt like discipline to avoid diluting its net asset value. If there is pent up demand, it is going to be unlocked by glad handing.

Clearly, there is huge demand for products that eliminate the hassle of retail investors dealing in physical gold and facing higher costs. It is precisely for this reason that CEF often trades at a premium to net asset value when you take into account its lower transaction and holding costs relative to coins and bars.

Equity Gold's challenge will be to manage excessive money flows � heavy inflows at the tops and crushing outflows in the troughs. Not only could it destablize the market, but it would drive up transaction costs that would dilute the value of Equity Gold paper since the fund must sell gold to pay its way.

It is more apparent that the original idea of Equity Gold being a single global security has been shelved in favour of more nationally oriented vehicles that are less likely to run into regulatory hurdles in the era of government paranoia.

--------

IMNSHO, you have but a few precious weeks remaining to purchase gold from our fine host below $500/ounce.

Take care.

PAPER AVALANCHE!

PCV1

(09/05/2003; 19:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108212)

ECB President Duisenberg chimes in from Calgary

Another report from today's proceedings to follow up TownCrier's post of earlier in the day.

Listening to the the local news on CBC here in Calgary, we heard 30 seconds of Paul Volcker, no less. His message was grave concern at the financial policies of the encumbent US administration indicating that the system has not been in such a state for many years (read pre-Volcker).

Strong words, hopefully they will be reported in full!

Paper Avalanche

(09/05/2003; 19:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108213)

This is the kind of guy that believes the World Bank POG prediction

http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_816233.html?menu=news.latestheadlinesSomething to liven up the evening.

PA

PCV1

(09/05/2003; 20:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108214)

Corporate scandals caused by entrenched problems: ex-Fed head Volcker

http://www.canada.com/search/story.aspx?id=94402bfa-9c6b-4bfb-814c-3dab9bd84139This is what I was looking for! Volcker :

"frankly rather depressed and certainly concerned about the state of corporate governance in the United States,"

Also :

Duisenberg also expressed concern over rapidly deepening federal deficits in the United States - currently estimated at $480 billion US next year - and several other of the world's largest economies.

"I must say that the developments in the U.S., where all sense of fiscal discipline seems to have disappeared, and the developments in particular in the major European countries are, of course, of grave concern to the monetary authorities."

seeker

(09/05/2003; 20:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108215)

Paper Av.

You seem so excited about this new development. Can you shed some more light on exactly how this will cause more demand for physical?
Whenever I here of a bank (bank of NY), and the SEC agreeing on something, I am very wary on their intentions. Is this a way for more people to aquire more gold, or is this another ploy to divert money from gold into paper gold?
I have heard of 'gold exchanges' opening up in various places in a great hurry around the world, in my view to divert pressure from gold, and now this.
I am very suspicious.

DryWasher

(09/05/2003; 20:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108216)

More from the summit in Denver October 27-29, 2003.

http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/stages-of-globalism.phpRef. (usagold.com msg#: 108208)

The following excerpts are from one of the papers to be presented at the summit and it can be found at the above link.

The following are 4 of the 12 Stages of Globalism proposed by the paper:

3.) 2005�2015 - Global Currency � The first global money will not be in the form of cash that you can stick in your pocket. Rather, the first global currency will be established as a digital reference point, a global standard, to which all other currencies will convert to and from. Acceptance of the new global currency will develop as large financial houses and credit card companies begin to understand the efficiencies they can derive from it.

4.) 2005�2015 - Global Intellectual Property System � Protecting intellectual property rights has gotten very messy. With many competing governmental rules undermining individual and corporate rights to patents, trademarks, and copyright protection, a coalition of worldwide intellectual property agencies will begin to establish the first global intellectual property system.

5.) 2010-2020 - Whole Earth Ownership Project � Most wars begin as land disputes. Creating a global authority to establish and record property ownership will go a long ways towards resolving disputes between claims of ownership. The Whole Earth Ownership Project will be centered around a comprehensive database of land ownership records linked directly to countries around the world.

6.) 2015�2025 - Global Tax Code � Wealthy people are demonstrating a growing desire to resist the confines of country boundaries. Having multiple residences around the world is already common. With national tax codes creating complex impediments to the free flow of commerce, a new simplified global standard tax code will emerge to better manage the difficulties of monitoring a fluid population engaged in borderless economies.

DryWasher: Beam me, and my Gold, up Scotty.

Great Albino Bat

(09/05/2003; 20:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108217)

Seeker: quite right to be "very suspicious"!

This new "Equity Fund" launched by WGC, which will be Exchange traded in the US, is not favorable to gold.

Think about it: the Equity Fund will absorb enormous amounts of dollars from people who WANT TO MAKE DOLLARS, not who want to own gold. Some of those putting their money into the fund will think that they are gold owners, but they will be sadly mistaken. They will not have a good ride with Equity Fund, they will exit sick and tired of gold and never want to hear another word about "gold".

When Equity Fund, at their sole discretion, thinks (or SAY they think) that gold is going down, they will have immense funds with which to short gold, all "in the best interests of the owners of Equity shares". Yeah, sure!

The price of gold will be controlled - with the money of those who hope to make dollars by owning shares in the Fund!

They will do the exact opposite of what the Mutual Funds do with stocks: these pump up the values no matter what junk is in their portfolios. With gold, count on it, they will act together with TPTB to slam gold at every opportunity, all in the name of the shareholders.

Now, if I am mistaken - and perhaps I am - will someone please explain why I am mistaken? Maybe the Fund expressly is forbidden to short gold? Is it forbidden to take action which it might construe as protecting the shareholders from "imminent and excessive downturns in gold"? Might not this very "protective action" pre-empting a "fall" in the price of gold, actually provoke the fall?

Be very suspicious. This Equity Fund is built for suckers.

Gold is not for fools and weaklings. They are soon parted from their gold with any cock-and-bull story. The WGC is not gold's friend. It is Rothschild's friend and creation.

However much damage Equity Fund may do to gold's price and reputation, facts are facts and nothing can be done to prevent the world financial explosion and the return to PHYSICAL gold as a refuge for savings. All that the enemies of gold for the people can do, is to delay the event a short time.

If anyone can show me that my suspicions are utterly without any basis, I will take back all I have written.

The GAB

TownCrier

(09/05/2003; 20:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108218)

Good observations, Batman.

You said, "...they will have immense funds with which to short gold, all "in the best interests of the owners of Equity shares". The price of gold will be controlled - with the money of those who hope to make dollars by owning shares in the Fund! They will do the exact opposite of what the Mutual Funds do with stocks: these pump up the values no matter what junk is in their portfolios. With gold, count on it, they will act together with TPTB to slam gold at every opportunity, all in the name of the shareholders."

We certainly get a strong hint of that element in this following paragraph from the article:

--------Equity Gold's challenge will be to manage excessive money flows � heavy inflows at the tops and crushing outflows in the troughs. Not only could it destablize the market, but it would drive up transaction costs that would dilute the value of Equity Gold paper since the fund must sell gold to pay its way.---------

Now, getting back to your words, "Gold is not for fools and weaklings. They are soon parted from their gold with any cock-and-bull story."

Amen.

R.

seeker

(09/05/2003; 21:18:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108219)

Great Albino Bat

Well spoken, well said,
however, do you believe that Rothschild is an enemy to gold?
I think that if paper wins he wins bigger, if gold wins he wins big.
What think ye sir?

21mabry

(09/05/2003; 21:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108220)

Gold Equities

Those who hold gold and silver equities have seen some very nice gains over the past month.If one has a position in physicals and paper gold is it time to sell the paper and invest in the physical even more so?Have these metal stocks reached a temporary high?Are they do for a pullback?The great trader Jesse Livermore said do not close out a position unless you see a better place to put your money.The only place I see better is physical metal.It is my belief as has been said by so many on this board establish your physical position first.That has been done.The leverage and movment of the gold equities are impresive though.In all honesty I would like to ride this paper gold bull higher and then put even more in the physical metal.The equties market and gold can not move higher together is a common belief,there relationship is an inverse one or it has been in the past.The last several years we have seen such strange happenings in financial markets why cant they move higher together.With the masses buying stocks and those in the know buying gold.This economy is flooded with easy money there is enough to pump both higher.Do we think more highly of gold and silver stocks on this board or are they as bad as other equties.21

Liberty Head

(09/05/2003; 21:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108221)

Physical and Miners

When POG went to $390/OZ earlier this year, it left the unhedged miners funds, like Toqueville, behind.
This time the miners are going along for the ride.
While the POG will bounce around a bit, I don't think we will see anymore $50/OZ declines until after the roof blows off the POG.
Hang on tight, the gold bull in this rodeo is likely to give us the ride of a lifetime.
If you do get thrown off, there sure are plenty of clowns around to distract the bull. :-)

Cheers

mikal

(09/05/2003; 22:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108222)

@Paper Avalanche, Seeker

@PA- Re: Msg # 108211 Thanks for the link. Great comments. It's not easy staying bullish, but you're on top of things and holding tight in the sea of distractions, deceptions and apathy. May you forever stay anchored, focused and jubilant!
@Seeker- Re: Msg # 108219- Good post! Keep on keeping on!

Goldendome

(09/05/2003; 22:10:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108223)

If only you could be --KING OF THE WORLD !!

Good evening to all. Lately, I've taken to being a quiet observing, reading, lurker; not knowing what to say. I, as many of you, have been watching-- astonished at the markets behaviors, investors behaviors, nations behaviors; the goings on with interest rates, mortgage rates, stock price levels, physical gold's brutal battles. I have been watching at times wide eyed-babbling-talking to myself, at the Blow-up in the world of markets, money, and nations that seems to be progressing in slow-time around us.

A couple of days ago Sir MK suggested there might be a contest time approaching. I don't mean to be presumptuous, but were I to choose the question- I think that I would like to know this:

"What would YOU do to change the Worlds' economic and political course. To get back to long run financial stability and sustainability. How would you implement your programs, and finally, how would you deal with the problems (winners and loosers) that your programs would create?

I really would like to know! I'd like some ideas. Because right now, the leaders appear to be hoping to accomplish what John Mauldin has referred to as "Muddle through economics." And it ain't workin' to well. Frankly, I'd like to find out if we have some Presidential timber in this forum. Maybe to lead a new "Solid Dollar Party".

Thanks for reading: Gdome

Paper Avalanche

(09/05/2003; 22:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108224)

@Great Albino Bat (09/05/03; 20:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108217)

Greetings!

I have a few beers in me so please bear with me if something should appear disjointed. While your point is certainly a very good one, I believe and humbly submit that the one flaw that you make is to assume that the US dollar is the perpetual monetary standard going forward. If it is not, as I believe, then the scenarios that you present whereby gold is once again controlled vis-a-vis a dollar denominated paper market become moot as a result of the rest of the world electing an alternative to the reserve currency of the past sixty years.

Take care.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(09/05/2003; 22:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108225)

@mikal

Thank you kind sir. It is a privilege to be among those that call this forum home. If that which Another/FOA/TG have anticipated should come to pass I believe that this forum will be remembered by future monetary historians the way the Common Sense pamphlets were attributed to the American revolution.

Have a terrific weekend!

PA

21mabry

(09/05/2003; 23:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108226)

Tim Woods

I have seen Mr. Woods articles alot latley.He rights for his own website and others.I have also heard him on Jim Puplavas show.I assumed he thought gold was in a bull market.He seems to have written a few columns latley where he seems not so bullish. Gdome if I was king of the world I would give you the tigers and take the mariners.Gdnite to all 21

slingshot

(09/05/2003; 23:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108227)

Gandalf the White

HEY SPOT! You have done a great job. Now to give you some incentive.

I know you like those Doggy Treats and the Roo meat from down under, but lets throw those tastebuds into overdrive.

How about a 16 0z Porterhouse Steak. One inch thick!

Think you can pop Gold over $400 next week?

No Kidding. Gandalf and I will work out the details.

So Spot, $390 or $400. Doggy treats and Roo meat or Steak. Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Slingshot----------------------<>

Waverider

(09/05/2003; 23:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108228)

Slingshot....okay.......

If Spot 'n Spike get porterhouse and roo meat...then I think the rest of us should indulge in Italian Goldschlager - Italian cinnamon schnapps liqueur with Gold flakes (really)...it's far too SMOOTH to not share with fellow Goldmeisters! CB2....is that a PARTY suggestion I hear to celebrate a 5 year Anniversary and POG $400.00?

slingshot

(09/05/2003; 23:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108229)

Lady Waverider

Hear! Hear! Goldschlager! Have not tasted that wonderful mixture of fermented Spirits in years. Yes, It does have GOLD FLAKES IN IT. Goldschlager it is when Gold goes over $400.
Slingshot-------------------<>

slingshot

(09/06/2003; 00:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108230)

(No Subject)

Good for a Fifth Year Anniversity Too.

Slingshot--------------<>

spotlight

(09/06/2003; 00:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108231)

Gold fund

Great Albino Bat
My understanding is that the fund will buy gold with the client's funds and issue him a share in the fund equal to his purchase less a commission which is much less the is now available. I can't see a lot of funds after expenses to do much speculative shorting of gold. If anything it may be much more profitable to go long, thereby increasing the price of gold much as the cartell has done to decrease it.
If you believe, as I do, that there is a shortage of gold which is being filed by the central banks, then, with the potential for world currencies to flow into these funds due to the ease of the investment in gold, you should also look for the possibility of one of these funds to run into a problem where a customer's order cannot be filled, and there becomes a back up problem that could break the back of any cartel and send the price of gold into uncharted territory. This I base on the assumtion that the mechanics of buying shares in the fund would require an instant purchase of gold,in order to ascertain the share price. There are potential buyers of gold out there with trillions of dollars worth of purchasing power. The US has less than $100 billion in gold in the treasury. The amount of money flowing to gold at present is a tiny sum, compared to what it could be once the ball really gets rolling.

(09/06/2003; 03:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108232)

@ spotlight (9/6/03; 00:33:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108231)

http://www.usagold.com/hall/hallfame5.html#anchor295925The above link of Aristotle is very interesting: Now, the possibilities are endless. I haven't thought of these until I read the above article. I offer the following:
---------------

Let the gold price be 380. Comex contract size is 100oz. Notional value of one contract is $38,000. Margin requirement is $2025. The intention is to take 5 positions at Comex, 2 long, 3 short. If 2 long/2 short pair qualifies for a spread, the margin would be much lower. Let us assume that total margin is 5*2,025=10,125. For every $86,125 (=38000+38000+10125), we 2 buy contracts and sell 3 contracts. With the remaining 76,000 buy 200 oz physical gold for your personal account.

Make the legal arrangements such that customer money and 2 long contracts are linked. Comex fails then customer money fails.

There is some sort of fractional reserve banking here. However, reserve ratio is high (76000/86125= %88). Moreover, the customers are unlikely to demand physical. If they were, they would not be buying the fund in the first place.

Our net Comex short position is 100z while we hold 200oz physical. No way to corner us.

We have a spread position at the Comex. How we manage it may affect the Comex price (Short at near months & long at far months may make it fall).

Sundeck

(09/06/2003; 04:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108233)

Spot's food intake

Hey you guys...stop fooling with Spot's diet!

16 oz porterhouse indeed! You'll make him so fat and lazy he'll sleep for a week. Next thing you'll be wanting to fill him full of gold flakes. You know how heavy that stuff is?

Leave Spot's food to Gandalf...he is doing just fine, thank you very much.

Respectfully

;-)

Sundeck

misetich

(09/06/2003; 06:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108234)

European bemoans soaring U.S. deficits

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_session_id_=93652fbee0eea59a&pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1062799810790&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851Snip:
Duisenberg singled out expanding federal deficits in the United States � currently estimated at $480 billion (U.S.) next year.

"I must say that the developments in the U.S., where all sense of fiscal discipline seems to have disappeared, and the developments in particular in the major European countries are, of course, of grave concern to the monetary authorities," Duisenberg said.
...............
"When public debt is allowed to mount unabated, the trust of investors and citizens can vanish very quickly � not only the trust in their governments, but their trust in each other," Canada's top banker told the business crowd.
...............
On another issue, Paul Volcker, .............told the Calgary conference that he is "frankly rather depressed and certainly concerned about the state of corporate governance in the United States," and about the standard of behaviour in the world's financial markets.

Volcker said prosecutions in corporate scandals such as Enron and WorldCom will not resolve systemic problems in a business world based on greed.

"The list is long enough that the theory that this is a case of a few rotten apples in the barrel, I do not think can be sustained," he said.

"Obviously there are particularly rotten and corrupt apples which are not characteristic of American or international business generally, but I think we have to conclude that the problems are pervasive enough that there are some more general causes and problems."
************
Misetich

The perfect financial storm
The unsustainability of the US twin deficit and the ongoing corruption which Volcker flatly thinks cannot be sustained...AND the unsustainable pace of Asia purchases of US $, unfunded pension plans, mutual funds dependent on a rising stock market, housing bubble market dependent on low interest rates for years to come
Add a little mix of geopolitical issues such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, North Korea, Taiwan

Scary stuff

How can investors protect their portfolio?

hint...hint

BUY PHYSICAL GOLD, BUY PHYSICAL GOLD

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

turkey hunter

(09/06/2003; 07:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108235)

Ron Paul's latest

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul124.htmlsnip......

In recent years, there has been a coordinated effort by the world central bankers to keep the gold price in check by dumping part of their large horde of gold into the market. This has worked to a degree, but just as it could not be sustained in the 1960s, until Nixon declared the Bretton Woods agreement dead in 1971, this effort will fail as well.

The market price of gold is important because it reflects the ultimate confidence in the dollar. An artificially low price for gold contributes to false confidence and when this is lost, more chaos ensues as the market adjusts for the delay.....

snip..... Alan Greenspan, although once a strong advocate for the gold standard, now believes he knows what the outcome of this battle will be. Is it just wishful thinking on his part? In an answer to a question I asked before the Financial Services Committee in February 2003, Chairman Greenspan made an effort to convince me that paper money now works as well as gold: "I have been quite surprised, and I must say pleased, by the fact that central banks have been able to effectively simulate many of the characteristics of the gold standard by constraining the degree of finance in a manner which effectively brought down the general price levels."

misetich

(09/06/2003; 07:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108236)

US Budget: Hill Set to Receive $80 Billion Iraq Spending Bill> Sep 5 / 12:51 EDT

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1062780660000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Lawmakers returned to Washington this week
from their August recess to learn the White House is preparing to seek
up to $80 billion for military and reconstruction programs for Iraq in
the 2004 fiscal year.

The formal White House request is expected as early as next week.
...............
Despite congressional grumbling, the request is almost certain to
be approved by lawmakers
***********
Misetich

Incredible - how the Iraq issue remains unchallenged by the vast majority of Americans - how so many can entrust their future and their children's in the hands of so few - blindly having faith that these few are acting in Americas best interest

Are they really? Who is benefitting from this Iraq invasion?

How can so many be so brainwashed - and yet have their pockets picked on a daily basis?

Somehow the exhilirating feeling of the 1994-2000 of the US economic growth, stockmarket bubble is very much entrenched in the minds of US investors and citizens and blindfolded they're waiting for the glorious leaders, be it Greenspan, Bush, etc to lead them back to the recent past

They're in for a Rude Awakening

As gold investors it is our duty to prepare and make room for the many passengers that will be coming onboard the Gold Bull Express as each and every passing day the passengers on the US, Japan Financial Titanic discover the ill effects of years of fiscal mismangement and corruption

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Mr Gresham

(09/06/2003; 08:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108237)

Persisting Juvenility

So many good posts lately -- GAB, Mr Marley, Socrates -- quick responses cannot do them justice. But, I've had my coffee (jazzed fingers sliding badly on the mousepad) so here goes a thought.

Misetich, below: "How can so many be so brainwashed - and yet have their pockets picked on a daily basis?"

My thought: I'm on a "stages of life" realization course lately, with recent events involving care of my father.

Most of us are programmed throughout life with parent/child issues. We do not start to climb out of our juvenile state of mind until we become parents ourselves. And at that, it is a slow, laborious climb. In fact, as we became young parents, part of us sought out a compensating elder authority with new inquisitiveness.

We take further steps toward growing up with the passing or disability of parents -- those who we once looked up to as wiser, stronger, powerful -- as we become the "next in line" older generation.

At that time in life, we are less disposed to take crap from those who impose their ideas, legislation, or costs upon us in the guise of a parental authority. We've paid some dues, and we recognize a game when it's being played. We've got no extra time to wait out another round of societal foolishness -- time to go our own way in life.

However, we now see the majority younger population still falling for those games. Even authority-rejecting young anarchists (possibly reacting in youthful clarity to a sudden realization of this society-wide vulnerability -- because SEEING something, and having the SEASONING to do it differently are two different items) are still caught up in the game. It is part of life, and it goes back to the times of ancient monarchs and priesthoods. It is not easily overthrown, possibly not at all.

Paternalistic government takes advantage of those authority-seeking impulses in all of us, What a great game for those who seek to make their living more easily on the backs of others!

Why, if I didn't have a CONSCIENCE, I might try it for myself. Whew!

I'll hit POST now before my sweating fingers wipe out these thoughts.

GOLD -- the GROWN-UP metal. For grown-ups only.

Mr Gresham

(09/06/2003; 08:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108238)

War

And, could WAR be the worst example of parental abuse possible?

Harnessing the energies, strength, and idealism of young men -- for your own profit.

I'm trying to be a good parent -- and a good son. I think it is because (like Hitler's statement about the BIG LIES being easily believed because people are TOO DECENT to imagine themselves telling such a whopper) most good parents could not imagine doing such an abusive thing to their own children, that they believe -- by extension -- that Government could not be doing such an evil thing.

They NEED government to be a caring, protective, beneficial "FATHER" and so they invest it with these qualities -- their OWN qualities, really -- which IT DOES NOT HAVE! Because they are not quite ready to accept the supremacy and sufficiency of the type of difficult job they are already doing as parents. Somebody promises a slicker, "foolproof" "system" (such as Social Security), and they fall for it.

It always looks so tidy at the beginning, War. "Mr. Lincoln asks for 90-day volunteers."

Yes, war. Satan smiles. Evil is done. Quite a gap here, and not just the $80 billion one.

Cavan Man

(09/06/2003; 08:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108239)

@misetich

RE: Weapons of Mass DisappearingThe "great unwashed" will be "washing up" upon your shores soon.

Mr Gresham

(09/06/2003; 08:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108240)

Emasculation

I won't even start on the subject -- of how in the present time, technology, big financial institutions, government institutions, and our own educations have conspired to remove most of what we biologically inherited about being MEN.

Besides the "stages of life" age approach I described below, we have to get past all these obstacles and distractions in order to have a healthy, balanced, fulfilling channel for our energies as men and stop pretending we are not who we are. What can we do without it?

I really think this is one of the eternal appeals of the "Founding Fathers". They really did stand up and act like Men. (It was the courage part -- not just the war part -- that really marked that.)

They acted like good Fathers -- to a nation. Imagine doing that today!

It's pretty obvious the White House has not held one of those for many a decade. I could mention a couple close calls, but even if it was all PR, or even if George Washington was really a jerk, so what? We ALL hold that model in our minds to the extent of our OWN experiences, and we can hold it as we go about our business, and not fall in with any scheme which further emasculates us.

Belgian

(09/06/2003; 09:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108241)

Thanks, for the great postings of the past week...

Would like to add a few things on Melting Pot (#108151) and Jacob Marley's (#108123) brillant posts :
France is firmly decided to bill a huge price (to the USUK) for probable, substantial aid in Iraq (and M.E. as a whole) through U.N. And France is not alone, but takes the lead !

I've been interpreting the general position(s) as follows :
We (France-Germany-Belux-Russia-China-India) will wellcome all help and co-operation, in ME-affairs, from the USUK... and NOT the other way around, as it is (hesitantly) proposed by the US, at present !? This may seem as a very conceited positioning, against the US powerhouse. But is that so ?
That's what we will soon find out when the US election year is fastly approaching and the geo-political embroglio evolves.

ME (Middle East)=(equals) the globe's oil-reserves =(equals) the US$-reserve in competition with Gold and euro : That's why this ongoing ME-saga is so decisevely important in our considerations (direct and indirect) about Gold. Sorry for repeating this so many times.

The total destruction of Iraq (2 wars + 12 yrs of embargo) have put an enormous "convenient" mortgage on Iraq's, world's, second biggest oil reserves (114 Billion barrils) . The entire wealth of 26 million Iraqis has been mortgaged by external powers ! France's (& Co) first demand is that the entire Iraqi oil wealth goes *entirely* back into full Iraqi ownership (de facto and de jure). They want to negociate only with the *natural* owners of the ME oil instead of having to deal with the dollar printers who intend to *control* those same oil-reserves ! This (and not Saddam & Co) is what causes the real rift between the Anglo-American dollar block and the EU euro block !

We all agree on the subjects of democracy, terror and dictatorship...but we have a *fundamental* difference in opinion on the world's reserve currency concept and its management.

It is up to Iraq and the whole M.E. oil reserves to decide for what value ( "currency" and price) they want to sell their black gold ! Note, the growing affinity between ME-oil and Russian oil (OPEC re-inforcement)!!! The world's remaining oil-reserves are looking for the most appropiate valuation, into the nearby future. That's what all this ME-affair (Israel included-!!!) is all about. If this shouldn't be the case, nobody would care about the ME and there wouldn't be a drama as it has escalated during the past 3 decades.

The trans-Atlantic rift widened decisevely with the recent Iraqi invasion/occupation. That is NOT a co-incidence and France wasn't-isn't playing games just for the fun of it or out of frustrated ambitions of not being within the club of world powers. No, there is much more behind all this, imveryho, of course !

France, is the willing front, that must take all the (anti-dollar)blaim, whilst silently being supported (to different degrees) by other powers, converging to the plural euro concepts.

Let me remind you that New York protester's pamflet that summurized the hart of the matter in one single phrase : " How did "our" (USUK) oil get under "your" (ME) sand ? " !!!

Wouldn't it have been much simplier, for all of us, that the USUK and EU would have agreed on full co-operation in Iraq and simply shared the oil-loot, control the oil-reserves all together and get on with out global economy !? No,...because there is that nasty euro ! And the consequences of the Iraqi invasion was that single step too far, for the euro and its supporters.

The reason why I do emphasize again on this euro-thing is the convincing "firmness" of the French (and German) stance (leadership) towards that old Trans Atlantic alliance.
Nobody in the EU even subtly suggests that the whole ME-affair is euro-dollar-oil connected !!! This is purely out of precaution as the right attitude for an adolescent and maturing, new currency-concept. It remains a mystery "WHY", A/FOA, as an American, has been introducing this deep cross current event, exclusively via CPM, to the www !?

Old fox, Rummy, was right...that "old" europ (France-Germany) is causing some new pain in the globe's humhum.

For those who understand french, I do recommand daily lecture of "Le Figaro" as to convince themselves about France's visions (and actions) on the geo-political fronts.

Recent opinion polls in Germany show an increasing dis-connection with the past evidency of Anglo-American world leadership ! The average for the EU now stands at 50%.

The Iraqi adventure could become disastrous for the dollar-coalition. As it stands now, the euro couldn't have asked for anything better than the rapidly growing dollar-antipathy.

One last reflexion on Hans Eichel (German finance minister) and German Goldreserves : One might consider selling of some goldreserves when fully convinced that the remaining amount of those goldreserves will surely be priced to their *REAL* value at the appropiate time. The sold minima of goldreserves will then have been used for what they were ment for...a valuable last minute "RESERVE" to overcome very difficult transition period ! One of the main definitions and purposes of a "reserve". In other words...the more EU gold is nakedly (physically) sold from the 12,000 tonnes plus...the more valuable the remaining reserves must...WILL...need to be priced as to balance the total !!!
We must *DE-DRAMATIZE* the past, present and future EU (!!!) CB goldsales !!! Stronger even...LESS GOLD IN THE VAULTS MEANS MUCH HIGHER VALUE !!! Not a contradictio in terminis or otherwise, tell me (us) who is buying the CB Gold ! NOT ONE SINGLE ANSWER HAS BEEN SUGGESTED UP UNTIL NOW! And remain confident that this question will "never" be answered ! Gold, remains an important reserve of the CBs !!!

PUBLIC Oil Wars and SECRETIVE Gold Wars are taking place !
Both wars happen because of the confetti-bergs !

(09/06/2003; 10:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108242)

CB2.....

Thanks to CB2 for the kind words directed toward the staff at USAGold-Centennial Precious Metals, and, yes, if The ABCs cracks the top 100 at Amazon.com, we'll use the proceeds to buy a castle in the Vienna Woods and sponsor an annual conference on the same weekend Dr. Mundell entertains at his castle in Italy. We'll call it the Shadow Gold Council of the Table Round.

Couple of questions, CB....

Is there a runway available nearby so that the knights and ladies can land their steeds (of the Leer jet variety)??

Also, we'll need a very large oaken table, preferrably round, and an oak cask of fine French wine, preferrably a well-chosen Bugundy. To match the table of course. We'll rely of course on your well-known good judgement.

Druid

(09/06/2003; 11:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108243)

misetich (9/6/03; 06:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108234)

"Volcker said prosecutions in corporate scandals such as Enron and WorldCom will not resolve systemic problems in a business world based on greed."

Druid: My dos centavos is that the debt manufacturers("systemic problems") are the problem(causative agent) and the idiots pillaging and plundering are the symptoms(effect) but get the idiot box(tv) treatment for the serfs to consume. In fact, those that are pillaging and plundering the both debt and equity holders are behaving in a very rational(self interest)way because they KNOW and SEE what is playing out before their very eyes. They're just taking their cut of the loot(under the friends and family plan)and taking off in the life boat so they can spend more time with their families.

Liberty Head

(09/06/2003; 11:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108244)

Re: Ron Paul's latest

Thank you turkey hunter for the link to Ron Paul's latest.

While, I am in complete agreement with every word, I have zero confidence that the public at large will ever see the truth. Given the choice between sound money and limited government spending, or tyranny, tyranny is clearly the popular choice. Wisdom is out, drama is in. The USA is in an irreversable decline. This decline will bring us many great dramas. The future belongs to China and India. Make no mistake, tyrants will want to take your gold. It is their nature to do so. It is prudent to stash it beyond their grasp.

We may be out numbered and surrounded, but we are not alone.
The fact that someone like Ron Paul is in Congress, is the proof.
When Ron Paul starts learning to speak chinese, make a run for the border.

Best Wishes

Cavan Man

(09/06/2003; 11:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108245)

Mr. Gresham

"WAR"; "What is it good for?" "ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!"

Why are governments, "constituted among men"? Only with social, economic and political JUSTICE will freedom truly ring and peace reign.

Shalom dear brother...CM

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/06/2003; 11:58:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108246)

Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Skydog

(09/06/2003; 12:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108247)

@Misetich, your #108236

You wrote:

"Incredible - how the Iraq issue remains unchallenged by the vast majority of Americans - how so many can entrust their future and their children's in the hands of so few - blindly having faith that these few are acting in Americas best interest"

Here is a quote from a Roman general 2000 years ago that knew the answer even then...

"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind.

And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all their rights unto the leader and gladly so.

How do I know? For this is what I have done...and I am Caesar."

Simply Me

(09/06/2003; 14:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108248)

Ceasar quote is fake

http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl-caesar-quote.htmSee link for explanation.
Simply

Melting Pot

(09/06/2003; 14:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108249)

Thoughts from the Gold Trail on Iraq conflict

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.htmlMany think the only way gold can rise in dollar terms is if USA prints to many! Truly, they have printed to many already. Gold will rise in dollar terms, many thousands even if treasury inflates currency no more.This rise in price will cost London much! You have seen the Bank of England report of gold that does not come home?

We are close to "much change". The oil reserves of the middle east show a history of value delivered for currencies of "broken promises"! The supply of oil was never the problem, only the "market of oil" in "what kind of money" that caused much distrust. Today, many try to understand oil thru a currency that cannot offer a final payment of true value. I tell you, supply and demand mean nothing in this realm. The "fight", is to bring oil down in US$ terms, then convert to an "open" partial gold payment. With gold priced correctly, oil would be very cheap for western, non producers. But, the owners of "local reserves" as Mexico, would suffer as gold would not be allowed for payment to them. The Euro, it could be the result of this war.

If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?

"The USA/IMF and its�currency could not withstand cheap oil prices."

Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight" a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency" that it would bring!

Bring this thought into focus and you will inderstand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. You think long and hard on this!

This battle of wealth began long before our eyes were open. It was born as a conflict of the human spirit. Many teach the way of "honest dealings" and "earn your own way", then force their neighbor to accept a currency debt receipt, as payment for "real commerce goods". The world reserve currency is held by "default" not choice. Today. every digital money is a product of the US$ by nature of "it being the book keeping reserve". To this extent, the US$ is the only world currency! To this end, noone can see the true size of the "mismatch" in gold as money in US$. No country, Japan included, can sell dollar reserves without destroying their own currency! The BIS does not recognize other currencies as reserves, as they are, in themselves, a dollar product!

This "new gold war", it will be as "none before". The BIS will bring gold into the $320 to $360 range for the Euro. The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$. At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. In this light, one can see why many large buyers have been taking in gold, as it is held in terms of value of "after the war". Not the traded price of today.--ANOTHER

And why was Iraq invaded? To prevent Iraqi oil production from ever making it to market! Do you now understand why Iraqi pipeline is continuously vandalized and civil war is "openly endorsed" by US? If this is not truth, then why has US & UK not provided larger military presence?

The warships are an attempt to keep oil prices from "falling" and world reserve fiat dollar use in demand!IOW Iraq oil cannot be allowed to come to market and lower general oil prices.......

Rumsfeld rules out more US troops for Iraq
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...05%2Fwirq05.xml

We Were Warned About This Chaos
http://www.counterpunch.org/fisk09052003.html

Britain and US overstretched by occupation
http://http://www.telegraph.co..._requestid=4205

Belgian

(09/06/2003; 15:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108250)

Some more Euroland thoughts....

The dis-unity (unanimity rule) and many divergences within the EU-12? going to 25? is often seen and quoted (rather ridiculed) as profound its weakness and therefore meaningless on the geo-political stage. I have my own little theory as to why this "percepted" disunity has to remain as such : To reach a consensus with a majority, produces a much weaker official standpoint than when things are decided and done "discretely" by the major ruling force (forces) within the squabbling EU bureaucracies, producing sufficient background noise when things are actually moving...moved, by the core of the political power carriers.

The simple modus operandi of the sudden fait accompli with the political soldiers producing some more noise.

*Sudden* changes, always appear to come out of the deep blue. This will be no different on many of the gold-matters.

The same will probably apply on a 180� turn in USUK policies in the ME. Maybe the resignation of Abu Mazen is such a precursor event on the attitude versus Israel and its 50 years old "function" within the ME process.

Under the disguise of "westernization" (democratization) of the ME (read oilreserves), the western traditional partners (US/EU) have one huge common problem with the status of Israel. This is dividing the dollar and euro block in many ways as to organize the orderly oil-flow for our economies in particular and for the rest of the world where oil-consumption is rising fast.

Note, how the EU is NOT included in the handling of the N.Korea threath ! A big difference with what happened 50 years ago when Eurolanders lost their lives overthere.
These (big) changes do point to different hidden agendas (and new alliances) for both US and EU.

The politicians on the telescreens, for public infotainment, are not the ones who discretely have the power to make changes happen.

Trying to make the point that the *oil for euro* is still leading the different "real" political actions, absolutely silently though. The Hans Eichel statement on German goldreserves was another of these needed public statements as to cap the goldprice from running away too early and at the in-appropiate moment. The "right" thing also needs the "right" timing ! Put the Equity Gold Fund under the same denominator.

Belgian

(09/06/2003; 16:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108251)

Had a keybord problem...

Most, if not all, public politicians (non strategists)aren't connecting the dollar > euro > oil, dots... IN PUBLIC. This is not for public consumption and we are the only happy fools that do discuss this, daily, on the CPM forum.
Euroland has no "Ron Paul" as a public mouthpiece. We can only try to decode Duisenberg and soon Trichet as the representative of the real decision makers on the real problems. These people are much ahead on the ordinary politicians that are continiously interviewed.

France is the only exception on the above rule and makes it much clearer (more public) what its global political intentions are. But this can't be done on the monetary (EMU) (euro-gold) front because of the unanimity rule and the delicate character of the matter.

Currency Exchange rates aren't managed democraticaly in the real sense of the word. So aren't interest rates and the value (pricing) of the goldreserves.

The politicians decide on the ME geopolitical strategies and indirectly influence the pricing policies of the ME oilreserves. This oilpricing has an impact on the different economies and theiur respective currencies and land herewith on the central bankers' platform. This moves the POG much more fundamentally than the commercial offer/demand equations. How many common politicians are even aware that there exists a goldreserve management ???

Russia AND China are still waiting on more Euroland taking more lead ! They do this through France ! ME Oilreserves and the euro plus dollar excesses, are playing a big role in this growing alliances. This can only be distilled from the French media in French of course. These analyses don't reach the international community on the same scale as does the dominating global Anglo-American (R.Murdoch) reporting.

For this reason, much of the Euroland actions go beyond the public stage. All comments on POG moves have are of A.A. origin as if Gold is "still" an exclusive dollar matter !

I suspect that with Trichet heading the core euro decision aparatus...we might expect some firework ? More probably when and if the USUK isn't making much bigger approaches (openings) to the EU and Co in ME (oilreserve) matters.
POG and the euro-dollar exchange rate might come into the persuasion toolbox under the French influence, far away from the general (divided)EU politicians' eyes. The globe's growing stashes of dollarreserves and the euro-gold-concept might finaly be used as a non violent weapon. Much to the displeasure of the pro-Atlantic factions within the present (old) and future (new) EU.

Will see !?

otish mountain

(09/06/2003; 18:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108252)

Melting Pot your #108249

I have thought long and hard on this particular section of Anothers Thoughts and for the life of me i am having great difficulty understanding this section.
Why did Iraq and Iran go to war so long?
Is the public being deceived that we would have cheap oil after gulf war 2 when in fact the government wants a high priced oil?

Sometimes I think I grasp the concept, then when I reread to confirm my understanding I loose my bearings.

If you or anyone else care to walk me through this I would be very greatful.

Shy Otish

Simply Me

(09/06/2003; 21:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108253)

also confused

"At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. "

This part also does not seem to apply to current situation.
Japan and China are piling up more dollars than ever to keep their currencies weak and prop up exports.

WHEN they DO start shipping dollars back to U.S., THEN it will be hyperinflation time.

But the avalanche has not yet begun. I wonder which stick of dynamite will blow the avalanche and begin this once-in-a-lifetime revaluation of all things physical?
Simply

Cavan Man

(09/06/2003; 21:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108254)

US must be in need of more coastal real estate ('ya think?)

LBI is too pricey!Bush on warpath over UN's shock report on Iran A-bomb
By Con Coughlin
(Filed: 07/09/2003)

America will tomorrow demand that the United Nations takes urgent action to prevent Iran acquiring the atom bomb as fears mount that Teheran is on course to develop a nuclear weapons capability within two years.

United States officials will make the demand at a special meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna that has been arranged to consider a 10-page report by Mohammed al-Baradei, the agency's director-general, into the state of Iran's nuclear programme.

turkey hunter

(09/06/2003; 22:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108255)

interesting thoughts

Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:32
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

One new day gold will begin a rise that will end it's use as a trading medium. This reevaluation will end a tradition in London. No gold house will make a market that has no sellers, official world gold trade will end for many years! And with it will go the last true value to trade for oil. Oil will skyrocket in all currencies. Those who have metal will learn it's value in oil. All things in life change, the world will not be the same.

Date: Mon Nov 24 1997 21:08
Allen ( USA ) ( @Another ( Thoughts! ) and all RE: Mercantilism ) ID#255190:

.....With gold discounted to it's production cost and below, those that have it can trade it for it's monetary value. Make no mistake, the BIS knows gold in the many thousands. The future "reset value" of gold is the key. "support the dollar with oil and the currency system works" "fail the currencies and the dollar will come off the oil standard and the BIS will reset gold to $10,000+ with many conditions"

That is why they continue to accept the dollar as a reserve. If Japan or any other COUNTRY sells US treasury debt it's all over!.......

Turkey Hunter...... buy the gold now and don't worry about the up's and down's (charts).. gold will be revalued overnight.

Another (Thoughts) Sat. Nov. 22 1997 "A world waits for something to happen that is done"

Melting Pot

(09/06/2003; 22:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108256)

CONTROLLING THE WORLD'S MONETARY SYSTEM THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS

http://www.newswithviews.com/Veon/joan2.htmHow is dollar valued? Dollar is valued on FOREX by demand and use fundamentals. The higher the demand there is for dollar or any fiat currency, the higher the value, vis-a-vis, a lower demand places lower value on dollar.

What uses is dollar employed.

1) All international oil trade is settled in dollars

2) All international gold trade is settled in dollars

3) US Federal income taxes are settled in dollars

4) Dollar is recognized as global medium of exchange

Now if your an Arab country accepting dollars in trade for oil settlements with the intention of converting a portion of dollars into gold, you would seek a highly valued dollar as gold would be priced much lower in dollar terms, yes? The strong dollar (policy) would drive POG lower and lower allowing the purchase of more gold per bbl oil. So if you are oil producer you would demand a strong currency to trade your oil with.

The dollar for all intents and purpose is backed by oil and oil is then priced in gold via dollar standard. The dollar earns much seignorage for this privledge. Hence the dollar producers (US) must protect dollar value on FOREX by retaining high demand for dollar or dollar will lose privledge as oil currency for oil trade settlement.

The recent US/UK invasion of Iraq prevented excess oil production capabilities from the second largest known oil reserve from coming to market. If Iraqi oil comes to market the POO across the globe would decline. This is bad for dollar value, as there would be to many dollar credits floating in system causing demand for dollars to decline.

So how does dollar standard support and protect dollar monetary unit. They must REGULATE the amount of oil coming into market to retain demand for dollar as world reserve currency. Is it any wonder that Venezuela was target of coup and is it any wonder US troops are in Columbia? Both are major oil producers, yes? They are not there to protect oil, but to regulate oil supplies coming on open market.

Treasury Bonds, US stock market, etc. act as giant vacuum sucking up excess floating dollars taking said dollars out of market for a fee (interest). This allows dollar producers to produce even more dollar credits for the great recycle machine.

The US deficits really do not matter. Hear again "The US deficits really do not matter," at least for now. Every time US requires new funding, they can simply manipulate POO higher in dollar terms creating new seignorage profits, aka a new oil tax on the world.

How much does oil really cost a oil producer? Nothing other than cost of extraction. The more they produce the more they earn from their reserves. Increased production is name of game. This is where the disparity begins between the oil producers and monetary authorities. The oil producers want steady production and global economic growth for themselves and world but they are tied to dollar standard, dollar and BIS policy makers. Think of it this way, oil produces are slaves to monetary authorities. It really did not matter as long as oil producers receive "X" amount of gold at settlement and new production remained steady and growing. However POO in dollar "tax" terms has become excessive on world economic growth as dollars "real" value steadily declines due to debt/inflation pyramid. The dollar is done and finished as WRC and is only surviving because the replacement alternative is just now becoming operative. Know this, the US will default, no country can survive $43.5 trillion in debt and twin annual deficits of $1.2 trillion annually. Any thinking person can realize this will never be paid, never, ever, ever due to compound interest.

I ask you, if your a oil producer would you trade asset for evidence of debt? How absurd, trading value for liability! Would you continue to support and accept a bankrupt currency? The answer is axiomatic.

The world reserve FIAT currency has failed as a store of value, wealth and medium of "fair" exchange to all parties due to manipulations and interventions of dollar producers employing financial hegemony and global taxation to their benefit without consideration of backers of dollar standard (Oil Producers). One should never besmirch the hand that feeds them by creating currency bubble.

Hello Euro! Why isn't the Euro just another fiat currency? YES! But the Euro is backed by a small percentage of gold that represents "fair" trade and the discipline required of a currency that should bestowed and honored as "world reserve currency." Greshams law will terminate dollar standard through dynamic process, "Good money drives out bad if they exchange for the same price."

The currency and gold wars have begun. We watch as the trading blocks line up and ally themselves....

PS: Get ready for new currency when dollar bubble collapses and old currency dies Weimar style!

The (new) color of money

Unveiling the new $20 -- an effort to thwart counterfeiters -- is set for March 27.

The Nightmare German Inflation

http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.html

http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/05/news/money/

The Inflation Tsunami

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/HamTsunami.html

REF:

China's Top Legislator Calls for Establishment of New World Order

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200309/01/eng20030901_123505.shtml

Russia Strikes 'Historic' Saudi Deal

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/03/001.html

S'pore, Thailand to push for faster creation of single Asean market

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,208537,00.html?

FOLLY & FRAUD
WHAT IT'S REALLY COSTING US

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr090403.shtml

Testimony by Kent Smetters for the Subcommittee on the Constitution of The United States House of Representatives. Submitted on March 3, 2003, for hearing on March 6.

"Let me describe the current $43.5 trillion shortfall another way. Instead of raising payroll taxes, suppose we eliminate half of the rest of the federal government in 2004 except for Social Security and Medicare. In particular, we eliminate half of the federal government's spending on the military, homeland security, roads, education, veteran's affairs, agriculture, labor affairs, NASA, commerce, law enforcement, Medicaid, etc. � everything expect for Social Security and Medicare. And we do this not just in 2004 but forever. Also suppose that we don't change federal taxes so that people continue to pay taxes as projected. Now, for example, the $150 billion deficit projected for 2004 would turn to a $600 billion surplus! That sounds like a lot of money. But we would still accumulate surpluses too slowly over time. In particular, we would still be left with a fiscal imbalance of about $3.2 trillion. In other words, shutting down half of the rest of government forever is not enough to put the U.S. fiscal policy on a sustainable course."

http://www.house.gov/judiciary/smetters030603.htm

turkey hunter

(09/06/2003; 22:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108257)

Melting Pot # 108256

Thanks for that post #108256 it made things more understandable.

mikal

(09/06/2003; 23:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108258)

Bush to give speech tonight. Says: "We will spend what it takes"

CBS news is reporting that Bush will give a speech tonight(Sunday), the first in the White House since the start of the Iraq war. (His last speech was given at the "end" of the Iraq war aboard an aircraft carrier.)
And Colin Powell and Condolezza Rice are traveling to elicit support for tens of billions more Iraq funding and UN assistance.
The "ME peace process" is in danger approaching the 2nd anniversary of the 9-11 disaster on Thursday. I am constantly prepared for another possible power outage, telephone or internet disruption, gas lines, and more, given the incompetence and complacency of computer programmers and utility providers such as power plants and internet servers. But especially that of the "professional" profiteers in corporate management, banking and finance and the appointed officials and "elected" bureaucrats that dread words like "productivity" or "representation".

Liberty Head

(09/07/2003; 01:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108259)

Re: Melting Pot , msg #108256

Thanks for the great post Melting Pot.

Controlling the world's monetary systems is indeed a huge amount of power to wield. Gold and oil are very important in the scheme of things, however there are other important commodities as well. Above those important things is more important stuff like friends and family.
When discussing topics such as world domination, one must also consider the role of arms.
Thugs and goons will try to take the oil, the gold and our thought process as well. Global power shifts will not be bloodless. We may face many flight or fight decisions before POG goes ballistic.
Our future is unknowable, so by all means, make today a good one.

Best Wishes

Belgian

(09/07/2003; 02:40:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108260)

Reflexions on S.M. and O.M. questions.....

The world's debt-paper, named US$, tries to pull intrinsic worth from its forced association with "oil". That's why the dollar (US) has been dominating the ME, through its "intrigant" actions. Let those oil-rich states, artificially created by the former Britisch empire, fight between each other and make sure you (the dollar) have a reliable watchdog (Israel) on the spot.

That old...very old rule of divide, rule and conquer !
It happens everywhere and is practisized by all those with ambitions/lust for power.

The exhaustive 9 yrs Iran/Iraq war was another fine mess organized with the influence of outside powers who installed the different leading actors (dictators) at their (oil-dollar) convenience.

There will be no peace in the ME for as long as there remains the world's oil-reserves under their sand. Before we used oil, the same was happening with water-reserves.
Oil (and water) is (economic) life or death. Wealth or poverty.

It was the dollar's responsibility to organize the reliable oil-flow to the entire world. The whole world agreed on this and therefore supported the dollar in its "reserve" status. Things are (have been) changing with the creation of the euro.

It is impossible and totally out of the question that even only a fraction of the massively created, floating dollar-mass can, shall, be repatriated to sender/printer (US).
We have to accept this dollar-drama for as long as there is no alternative (euro) that is ready to take over the past dollar-function and use.

In the mean time, an increasing amount of dollars must be created as to make the dollar survive, function and being used up until the alternative can take over. The more ambitious and succesfull the euro-alternative evolves, the more dollars will be added to counter this dollar-competitor. That's why France takes the lead in not willing to co-finance the ME mess !

This makes the dollar (globe's reserve currency) a measure for "DEBT" (indebtness) and NOT a store of wealth as it was originally percepted under the gold standard.

*Flood* the globe with ever more dollar-confetti as to force everyone to accept this debt-paper, unconditionaly !
Undermine/weaken or make friends with all those who are able to question the dollar's authority. The EMU...the owners of the world's oil reserves...the Eastern producers of real goods and services !

One is "with" the dollar or "against" the dollar (reserve).
A very, VERY difficult choice for all non dollar printers who see their growing dollar-stashes become more and more "dependant" on the one and only dollar-manager, the US !

Price Hyperinflation (due to decades of relentless dollar hyperinflation) will start to manifest itself once the dollar supremacy "CAN" be questionned. For how long can the neocon doctrine (PNAC)hold ? And are we heading for another nuclear confrontation (cfr. Japan - Horoshima) as the finale in the dollar supremacy ? Or will the dollar-challengers back off and continue to accept, for some more time, the degradating but ruling dollar-reserve ??? That's what we are watching, daily. Not only us, gold-shrimps, but all those dollar-confetti-fortunes, with us.

*IF* the global economy cannot be re-launched...it will be blamed on the dollar-management and the dollar-challengers will press and gather around the euro as dollar-alternative and speed up its deepening process. This is going to be the most critical moment for all of us. A progressive, smooth $ > �, transition or a very turbulent one !? Watch POG's ($-� exch. rate-IRs-POO) behavior for the online (ex tempore)answer(s).

If the US-economy is more and more percepted as the economy of last resort...we have landed in a very precarious situation of a hyper-concentration of ultimate (US) power with a decreasing sense for global responsibility. The perfect coctail for having a "drama". The des-integration (failure) of the political economy and monetary/finacial collapse. Who wants to be blamed for this to happen ? That's what is confusing (immobilizing) many politicians in executing the painful but necessary structural reforms.

(read N. Hultberg at the neighbours)

silvercollector

(09/07/2003; 05:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108261)

Confusing posts in the last 24 hours...........

I don't get this 'US wants oil priced higher' business. Flatten the economy for the sake of....?

It was once discussed that US supplied arms to Iran & Iraq and political meddling so that the 2 would fight long and hard to keep each other weak. Does the US want a strong, solid, unified ME? No, the more internal squabbling the better. In addition more oil sales are required to repair the carnage after the fighting.

Quote from Cavan Man , "America will tomorrow demand that the United Nations takes urgent action ...." (w/ respect to Iran A-bomb)

At this late stage of the game why would the UN even listen to the U.S.? The US has insulted the UN every step of the way (Iraq II) to the point of calling them "irrelevant". The fact that USUK 'bypassed' the UN proves the obvious point that the US will do what it wants to do when it wants to. The UN, in the eyes of USUK is already "irrelevant".

Now that Iraw II is in disarray the USUK 'will allow' UN presence under the direction (the sole direction') of the US. The US will still 'lead' this retarded affair. France, Germany, Russia & China will agree to UN assistance provided UN had 'lead' role.

DID WE NOT JUST GO THROUGH THE SAME STUPITY PRE-IRAQ II?????????

As Belgium said, the trans-Atlantic rift grows larger. As long as the US continues to insult the common man the trans-Atlantic rift will grow until the US stands alone. It will be then that the world will decide to 'take the hit' and dump dollars en masse. The American people will soon have to recognize that the American government is out of control.

The American government does not and will not listen to anyone, therefore it need not ask.

Belgian

(09/07/2003; 07:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108262)

@silvercollector

I don't see the reason for your confusion. For as long as the dollar-system keeps on working...all parties will politically muddle along for as long as it POSSIBLY takes.
This is the classic consequence of a system that has already expired. After the "fait accompli" of the Iraqi business, the dollar hopes that renewed assistance might be lured in, AGAIN !

Don't try to "time" (even guess) the date of the final reckoning. In order to get re-elected, politicians are prepared to do anything. Always expect the unexpected. Even a withdrawel of USUK troops or sudden assistance from the EU. The status quo of the present situation is the worst of all choices for the Bush/Blair administration and is causing the worst possible *additional* damage to the US$'s reputation.

If Euroland can be lured into Iraq...it will have happened with enormous concessions from the dollar-side. Whatever these concessions might be.
Main point is that the euro doesn't want to lose the credit (oil for a euro) it has in the ME by taking the wrong decision and join the USUK without enough guarantees of succeeding in an orderly/peaceful rebuilding of Iraq AND a definitive solution for the Israeli/Palestinian question. Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be ?

Why else do you think that the French demand a Free Iraq of and for all Iraqi people ? This is the best opening point for the chance of having Iraqi(Iran and Saudi) oil for euro.
Turkey will join EMU in one way or another, sooner or later, and make the euro bridge towards the ME. The reason why Germany is ready to take a leading role in Afghanistan has much to do with the oil/gas developments on the Russian side of the globe. Putin & Co are germanophiles. Geopolitics are a gigantic domino play where one gets often confused because of the many irrationalities that come and go with this particular game.

And it is on this field that I can understand you are confused as I am still often. With the physical in possession ...we have no reason to be confused or anxious anymore. Let it all happen and add quality to your personal life without getting depressed about those ugly things happening out there. Gold also brings peace of mind when acquired with the correct motivations. Nice weekend to you.
Back to some more september gardening.

mikal

(09/07/2003; 08:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108263)

New threatening audio tape

http://www.msnbc.com/news/963020.asp?pne=msntvNew al-Qaida attacks threatened
Tape allegedly from terror network aired on Al Arabiya TV
DUBAI, Sept 7 �Snippit:
"A purported audio tape by a member of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network on Sunday promised more attacks against Americans everywhere and denied any links to the killing of a Shiite Muslim cleric in Iraq.
� "WE ANNOUNCE there will be new attacks inside and outside which would make America forget September 11," an al-Qaida spokesman said in the tape broadcast by the Arabic television channel Al Arabiya. It identified him as Abdel-Rahman al-Najdi."

misetich

(09/07/2003; 08:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108264)

Debt Trouble Could Be Piling Up Overseas

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/business/yourmoney/07VIEW.htmlSnip:

The total public debt of Asian governments has risen to nearly 70 percent of their gross domestic product, from less than 60 percent at the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. In Latin America, the debt ratio has climbed to 60 percent from about 40 percent.

By contrast, the debt ratio of industrialized countries is about 40 percent.
..........
Though the I.M.F.'s economists bent over backward to avoid inflammatory rhetoric, ...........a "sustainable" government debt would be about one-third its current level, the report said.
..............
Of course, poor countries are not the only ones that need to watch their debt. The United States government is by far the world's biggest government borrower, expected to run up nearly $1 trillion in new debt over this year and next.

If poorer countries need any lecturing about reining in their debts, American officials would be well advised to stay in the background.
*********
Misetich

Debt bubbles everywhere.
Almost every article stresses the "unsustainability" of debt levels, twin deficits (US)

Which currency will maintain its value in the future?

GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD

GOLD IS MONEY

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/07/2003; 09:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108265)

The Ultimate Relay Race? Consumer Spending slowing

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

The Changing Of The Guard?...Although one or two data points do not make a trend, we are witnessing current anecdotes that suggest to us that cracks are appearing in the ability of households to continue supporting the economy looking ahead, at least in the fashion they have over the past three years or so. The recent consumer credit report revealed an actual contraction in month over month consumer credit outstanding. That might not sound like a big deal, but do you know how many times this has occurred on a month over month basis during the last ten years? Three, including last month. Looking back across many decades, contractions in consumer credit outstanding have only really occurred at significant recessionary troughs. As you can see in the following chart that chronicles year over year changes in total consumer credit outstanding, very much unlike prior post recessionary experience, the rate of change in annual consumer growth is currently in decline. It's clear that in historical post recessionary periods it has spiked higher as the forces of pent up consumer demand were unleashed upon a more broadly recovering economy. As for this cycle, there largely is no pent up demand to be expressed as we move forward. At least not of a magnitude characterizing prior post recessionary experience.

**********
Misetich

Consumer spending has been unusaully resilient during the mild recession in the US - aided by mortgage refinancing - however housing and auto have been the primary drivers in economic growth in boosting economic recovery post recessionary periods

Since auto and housing have/are peaking there will be little impetus from this two sources in fostering sustainable economic growth

Jobs are scarce - stock markets have priced in significant growth numbers and earning expectations

Energy prices are constantly rising. Grids and infrastrure are being poorly maintained

Cities and States are fiscally struggling

Not a pretty picture....

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 09:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108266)

Europe's faith in US 'crumbles'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3081254.stmIn the mean time, an increasing amount of dollars must be created as to make the dollar survive, function and being used up until the alternative can take over. The more ambitious and succesfull the euro-alternative evolves, the more dollars will be added to counter this dollar-competitor. That's why France takes the lead in not willing to co-finance the ME mess ! --Thoughts of Belgian msg#: 108260

Is this not signs of crumbling dollar standard as predicted by "Thoughts of Another?" IS US not dominated by UK financial district/LBMA? It all comes down to gold, always has always will. Keynes was a madman! "The law of supply and demand is not to be conned."--Alan Greenspan essay "Gold and Economic Freedom"

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure! They do reach for real things! Derivatives offer not a solid hold. It is well known that the modern gold market is fat with contracts derived from "intentions to supply". It is also known that the US$ continues on the "oil standard" because of this paper. No doubt, oil will continue to flow, but what currency will take this supply as we "walk down the mountain"?

In that day, "good money" will become "bad money" and "derivatives" will be paid to the holders of "derivatives"! In that day, a gold mine will also be paid in "derivatives", for it�s gold will be for the benefit of all.--Thoughts of Another

How does dollar standard defend against Euro, gold or oil currency? Many dollars are created and placed in foreign hands as a defense (burgeoning trade deficits). This defense relies upon human greed, namely that dollar holders will not except the losses incurred by swapping dollar for Euro or gold. This requires dollar value support and backing by POO as last ditch defense. How does one keep players out of gold? Easily, in the end allow the price of gold to rise until gold stops trading! Who will buy revalued gold at $5,000, $10,000 or even $30,000 USD or Euro? Noone except oil producers in settlement.

How will world destroy the 30+ yr. build up of debt that is preventing world economies from flourishing? It must be inflated away or defaulted upon before new "fair" system can be installed.

The game is really over now, all but crying, it's just a matter of time, to wit:

Europe's faith in US 'crumbles'
Thursday, 4 September, 2003

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3081254.stm

FORMER BRITISH DEFENSE SECRETARY WARNS AMERICA ABOUT A UNITED EUROPE (As summarized)

(May 27, 1998) In a speech yesterday at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, former British Secretary of State for Defense, Michael Portillo, warned that European monteary union and a unifed European foreign policy will erode the Amerian alliance with Europe. He said that a united Europe will benefit neither global security nor free trade saying that its future foreign policy could lead to the emergence of a bloc in opposition to the U.S. He said, "What I really want is for a debate to emerge in the U.S. about what the European movement is really about. Americans essentially are comitted to global free trade, while many in Europe are not. And I think they need to be careful about whether a common foreign policy in Europe might lead to a silencing of the British view, the emergence of a consensus to do nothing, and the emergence of a distinct view that there was a third way, a new and positively anti-American way."

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.html

Russia Strikes 'Historic' Saudi Deal
Wednesday, Sep. 3, 2003.

SNIPS:

Global hydrocarbon giants Saudi Arabia and Russia on Tuesday agreed to work together to stabilize world crude markets and cooperate in each other's oil and gas industries.

"This day will go down in history as it opens a new era in Saudi-Russian relations," Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud told President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials during his three-day visit to Moscow, the first by a Saudi leader in more than 70 years.

The world's top TWO oil exporters "intend to strengthen bilateral cooperation aimed at the stabilization of world energy markets," according to the text of Tuesday's five-year intergovernmental agreement posted on the government's web site.

The two countries also plan to work on "improving dialog between countries that produce carbon resources and countries that consume carbon resources," the agreement said. The goal is "the stabilization of world markets and the flourishing of the world economy."

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/03/001.html

NOTE: The world's top "TWO" oil exporters "intend to strengthen bilateral cooperation aimed at the stabilization of world energy markets, "The two countries also plan to work on "improving dialog between countries that PRODUCE carbon resources and countries that CONSUME carbon resources," "The goal is "the stabilization of world markets and the flourishing of the world economy." No mention of US involvment, a sign of times maybe?

COMMENT: Can goal of "stabilization of world energy markets" be accomplished with unstable fiat currency? I sayeth not. The goal if it is to be truly accomplished then requires a steady and reliable "international currency" for settlement of VALUE yes? A "disciplined" currency void of covert political agendas, outside manipulation and intervention. Can world economy flourish with violent swings in currency valuations? NO! How does one agree to contract for production of X amount of widgets at X amount of currency only to be "handed his head" due to floating FOREX exchange rates at time of settlement? Floating exchange rates are a failure in toto.

A world now preparing for sweeping economic change:

China's Top Legislator Calls for Establishment of New World Order
Monday, September 01, 2003

SNIPS:

China's top legislator Wu Bangguo said Monday in Manila that to achieve universal and lasting peace and development in Asia is a historic mission of all Asian parliaments and governments.

To such end, he made following proposals:

-- Promote the establishment of a "NEW" international political and economic order that is "FAIR and EQUITABLE." CHANGES in international "SITUATION" and progress of human civilization call for an international order that reflects the common interests of the majority of countries and peoples. It is incumbent to gradually adjust and reform what is unfair and unjust in the "EXISTING ORDER" and push for democracy in international relations. Under the new order we pursue, all countries will respect and consult one another politically and complement one another and seek common development economically.(emphasis added)

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200309/01/eng20030901_123505.shtml

S'pore, Thailand to push for faster creation of single Asean market
Sept 6, 8.50 pm (Singapore time)

SNIPS:

SINGAPORE - Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra will push for an earlier "END" date for the establishment of an Asean Economic Community (AEC) during an summit in Bali next month, the two leaders said on Saturday.

The original target of 2020 is too far, they said, especially with Asian giants China and India moving to complete a web of trade arrangements with their neighbours within a decade.

'Why is it too long? Because China and India and "THE OTHERS" are moving too quickly. So we want to see whether we can advance the end date,' he said. (NOTE: fraudien slip? "THE OTHERS")

The vision also includes a "EUROPEAN" Union-style "integrated" Asean market to be able to compete with China and India, which are now drawing the bulk of global investment flow into Asia. (emphasis added)

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,208537,00.html?

"They brought the Chinese onto their side by neutralizing the rest of the Asian competition. China hates Japan and would like nothing better than to watch them die as they stick with the US and the dollar. China also picked up huge gold holdings these last few years with the help of the BIS. They will easily fit into the Euro world and enjoy a massive trading block with Europe!"--Thoughts of Another

What is end game in Euro V. Dollar? The bottom line...It's an effort to re-establish olde Europe again. Olde Europe cannot be re-estabilished with WRC dollar controlled by NY & London. To wit:

"I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed. Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid, enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that comes to maturity today.

New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal!"--Thoughts of Another

Interview with Tatyana Koryagina, Russian Economist, Duma Commission on Economic Politics

Pravda: All the participants at the hearings stated that America is a huge financial pyramid which will crash soon. Still, it is hard to understand how this could happen in the first and richest country of the world � without a war, without missile or bomb strikes?

Koryagina: Besides bombs and missiles, there are other kinds of weaponry, much more destructive ones. ...

Pravda: Just these forces intend to smash America on August 19?

Koryagina: There are international "super-state" and "super-government" groups. In accordance with tradition, the mystical and religious components play extremely important roles in human history. One must take into account the shadow economy, shadow politics and the "RELIGIOUS COMPONENT," while predicting the development of the present financial situation.

I find this a most interesting article (infra) when put in proper perspective when reviewing Koryagina statements on international "super-state" and "super-government" groups. Namely in accordance with tradition, the mystical and "religious components" play extremely important roles in human history. To wit:

Render unto the Pope...
30 August 2003

SNIP:

There is much debate about whether the EU is a democracy, a theocracy, an oligarchy or a collective dictatorship, but at root it is none of these. It is an amphictyony - a confederation of states established around a religious centre. A Catholic EU will inevitably result in the subjugation of Britain's Protestant ethos to Roman Catholic social, political and religious teachings. The Queen's coronation oath 'to govern the peoples of the United Kingdom according to their laws and customs' and 'to maintain the Protestant Reformed religion established by law' is negated by the process of deeper European integration.

"Accession to the constitution for Europe" would finally confirm that the United Kingdom "yields" to the suzerain European Ecumenical Community - an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God. Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2003-08-30&id=3450

("Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.")

Is the picture becoming clearer with every sentence? "History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure!" .......and....."Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal."

Defending the dollar standard with bogus terrorism:

"This war on terrorism is bogus"

The 9/11 attacks gave the US an ideal pretext to use force to secure its global domination

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/iraq/comment/0,12956,1036687,00.html

India spins on its own axis (but only after gold market bombing)

NEW DELHI - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is due in India next week to cement a new India-Israel-United States axis for fighting Muslim fundamentalist terrorism. He will be closeted with Indian leaders trying to firm up a core alliance against terrorism on the second anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US.

"Indian officials have told the media that stronger India-US relations and India-Israel relations have a natural logic as the three countries are prime targets of terrorism and have "a common enemy". So the need of the hour is a "joint action", they added."

http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EI06Df02.html

Syrian Gov't Media: Israel Bombed Baghdad's U.N. Headquarters, Jordanian Embassy, Abu Gharib Prison and Water Main

"In whose interest was the creation of anarchy and destruction in Iraq? In whose interest was [bringing] the loss of security and stability to Iraq and the entire Arab region? Who, through such crimes, works for prolonging the hell for which Arabs are paying with their lives, with their future, and with their children's future?� Why is there talk of the reasons for hatred and animosity [for America] at a time when Israel's largest budget allocations are for besieging the occupied cities, destroying homes, arresting youths, and killing children?�

"De Mello devoted himself to helping the Iraqi people� [but] was killed by a hand with a supreme interest in prolonging this anarchy and destruction. De Mello's murder shows that terror does not discriminate between color, religion, ethnic origin, or nationality. It is, rather, a force of absolute evil, acting against the forces of good, security, and peace. The forces of good and peace in the world must unite today to put an end to this insane and useless killing, so that de Mello and others, who believed in and worked for humanitarianism, will not have died in vain."

http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD56503

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**

Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar! Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market economy".

*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **

Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead Japan.

**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **

Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!

***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. ***

The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.

**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**

Perhaps, "who control them"?

**The Swiss?

Yes.

**The eurocentral banks?

Yes.

**Who does BIS really represent?

"old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without war".

**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS?

answered.

**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe?

Yes. ---"Thoughts of Another"

"The corporate grip on opinion in the United States is one of the wonders of the Western world. No First World country has ever managed to eliminate so entirely from its media all objectivity � much less dissent.

"Of course, it is possible for any citizen with time to spare, and a canny eye, to work out what is actually going on, but for the many there is not time, and the network news is the only news even though it may not be news at all but only a series of flashing fictions..." � Gore Vidal
The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Confusing issues yes? But it is possible for any citizen with time to spare, and a canny eye, to work out what is actually going on. We cannot ever say we "really" know or possess the correct knowledge of what is actually going on, but we can connect certain dots in the Matrix.

Comments Welcome! Caveat Emptor

MP

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 10:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108267)

Boogie man now appearing: Economic collapse at hand???

New al-Qaida attacks threatenedDebt Trouble Could Be Piling Up Overseas
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/business/yourmoney/07VIEW.html

The Ultimate Relay Race? Consumer Spending slowing
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Underfunded Pensions Double in U.S.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=0TE54AEIUN4D4CRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=3388331

Pension Problems and Insider Sales
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=2163219&CFTOKEN=26251456&category=Market%20Commentary≠wsletterid=1020&menugroup=Home&aol=1

Paper Money and Tyranny
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2003/cr090503.htm

China defiant on currency rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm

Cuba starts to ease out the dollar
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3084711.stm

Saudi curbs on oil output drive up cost
Forecasts of easing prices hurt by sabotage in Iraq
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2003/08/29/saudi_curbs_on_oil_output_drive_up_cost/

"gold and oil can never flow in the same direction"--Another

How convienient for TPTB that the boogie man Usama (ex Cia operative under former Vice Pres. & Pres. GW Bush)and minions to arrive on scene with new threats of terrorism.

(Hey Dad can I borrow Bin for a few years!)

In the words of Gen. Douglas MacArthur.....

"Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear � kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor � with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it..." � General Douglas MacArthur 1957

The Five Keys to a Long-Term Bull Market in Gold Now In Place

1. The US Current Account must be in a Deficit position and growing. Yes, this is a present condition and shows no fundamental signs of reversing for a significant time. This is the account that measures the amount of US dollars in the hands of non-US entities. It is usually invested primarily in US Federal Debt instruments.

2. An intact negative trend in the US Dollar overall must exist. It should have the characteristics of a bear market. This is in fact true for the US Dollar today. We have a classic long-term top called a Head & Shoulders formation, which was subsequently confirmed by price and volume action. Even the dollar bulls now are looking only for the dollar to stabilize at lower levels. This criterion is in place for a long-term bull market in gold.

3. The general commodity market is showing in many ways, both fundamentally and technically, that it is in a base formation from which one can expect higher prices. We shall discuss the technical characteristics further to sustain that this ingredient has begun to support gold over the long term.

4. Trust in paper assets must be waning for gold to assume an investment role internationally. We see the recent decision against Andersen, the comments on GE & IBM accounting practices and Enron as examples of causative items, which have turned investors away from the absolute belief, in existence from 1980 until now, that paper assets were storehouses of value. We believe this ingredient is in favor of gold's long-term bull market.

5. The momentum in the appreciation of the bond market must be decelerating. We see this ingredient as positive now to a long-term bull market in gold.

The drama continues!

Caradoc

(09/07/2003; 11:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108268)

Melting Pot: Great list!!

You've done a great job of listing the things now in place that indicate POG will be going up. Let me be bold enough to add to the list:

* Prospect that Volker and others meeting in Siena on the 26th will be as blunt as Volker himself was in recent statement. Result: IMF tells US to shape up, either by formal devaluation or by explaining how we plan to cover our debt; i.e., Mission Impossible given the implications of compound interest.

* Tonight, President Bush tells the world that we're going to do (spend) whatever is necessary in Iraq.

Adding to your terrorism point, it's worth noting that the possibility of a "dirty bomb" (conventional explosives used to broadcast radioactive material) has been much discussed in US media, but always assuming that terrorists would pick a city or two to broadcast what is thought of as readily available radioactive waste like medical barium, radioactive iodine, etc., with result that a couple hundred thousand die, the market tanks, and it takes a couple of years to clean up the mess. This approach by the media may have been a conscious attempt by the media -- or whoever feeds examples to them -- to downplay the danger of a dirty bomb. The truth is that reactor by-products like strontium 90 and cobalt 60 are nasty enough that a coffee can-sized load could be launched 200 feet up by rocket propelled grenade and the resulting radiation would kill millions and make the city uninhabitable for centuries.

A grim thought, and I'd rather see gold double or quadruple in value based on the things you posted than have to figure out the multiple that would result from a few such strikes against US cities.

Caradoc

Druid

(09/07/2003; 11:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108269)

Belgian (9/7/03; 07:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108262)

"Back to some more september gardening."

Speaking about something that remotely resembles gardening, I would like to share a wonderful opportunity in learning that I experienced yesterday. My mother-in-law has needed her yard mowed for sometime now and I could see the that there was no rush by the other siblings to get it done, so consequently, yours truly took upon himself to get the job done for her. My own good will policy inititiave if you will. Upon completing this task in the wonderful heat and humidity of a Texas afternoon, I noticed that all was not well and that Druid must have missed some, from what my perspective appeared to be, "weeds" near this beautiful rose bush. I went ahead and for the good of all pulled these weeds. Initially there was a lot of happiness emanating from my mother-in-law over the fact that her yard had been mowed(she really is particular about this). Well, some 15 hours later and after tending too her rose bushes my mother-in-law got a hold of my wife and told her that some miscreant had destroyed her "mums" next to her rose bush. In a full 24 hours I went from hero to miscreant and I couldn't take her to the local nursery fast enough to replace that which I mistakenly destroyed under the act of trying to help. Well, things are back to normal and I can eat mom's home cooking without having some else taste it first. Well, this another one of those magical events that gets chalked up into Druid's "Lesson's Learned" playbook for future reference.

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 11:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108270)

@Caradoc: How Changes in the Dollar`s Value Affect the U.S. Economy.

http://www.polyconomics.com/showarticle.asp?articleid=1731If there really are "real" foreign terrorists, what have the elites done to anger them/someone so badly? Maybe defaulting on gold loans or something along financial lines?

Remember Nixon defaulted gold peg on August 15, 1971, a thirty year "gold bond loan" would become due August 15, 2001.

Is it just a coincidence Russian Economist Dr. Tatyana Koragina predicted a collapse of dollar on August 19, 2001???

"Russian Economist Tatyana Koryagina Uncovers New Players
in the New World Order Drama."

SNIP:

Dr. Koragina is a trusted advisor to Russia's President, Vladamir Putin. She gained prominence by accurately predicting the collapse of the Russian economy in 1998.

Then on July 12th 2001, she predicted the collapse of the American economy after an attack on the US. This is pretty scary as she predicted this to happen on August 19th�which�ironically was only a few weeks before the attack on the World Trade Center.

http://www.propagandamatrix.com/true_world_order_koryagnia.html

Hmmmm.......

Usama is nothing new to the American experience, just refined and presented a little differently.......

"The minority, the ruling class at present, has the schools and press, usually the Church as well, under its thumb. This enables it to organize and sway the emotions of the masses, and make its tool of them." � Albert Einstein
letter to Sigmund Freud July 30, 1932

"The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda accomplishments of the dominant political mythology." � Michael Parenti Political scientist and author of Inventing Reality: The Politics of News Media

"The U.S. Government spends more than $400,000,000 per year to employ more than 8000 workers to create propaganda favourable to the United States. The result: 90 films per year, twelve magazines in 22 languages, and 800 hours of Voice of America programming in 37 languages with an estimated audience of 75 million listeners � all describing the �virtues� of the American way." � Pratkanis and Aronson
Age of Propaganda: the everyday use and abuse of persuasion
1992

"The CIA is not now nor has it ever been a central intelligence agency. It is the covert action arm of the President's foreign policy advisers. In that capacity it overthrows or supports foreign governments while reporting �intelligence� justifying those activities. It shapes its intelligence, even in such critical areas as Soviet nuclear weapons capability, to support presidential policy.

"Disinformation is a large part of its covert action responsibility, and the American people are the primary target of its lies." � Ralph McGehee former CIA intelligence analyst Deadly Deceits: My 25 Years in the CIA

"To make sense of [American] political discourse, it's necessary to give a running translation into English, decoding the doublespeak of the media, academic social scientists and the secular priesthood generally.

"...the effect [of doublespeak] is to make it impossible to find words to talk about matters of human significance in a coherent way. We can then be sure that little will be understood about how our society works and what is happening in the world..." � Noam Chomsky What Uncle Sam Really Wants

"Next the statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting the blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception." � Mark Twain The Mysterious Stranger 1916

"One of the intentions of corporate-controlled media is to instill in people a sense of disempowerment, of immobilization and paralysis. Its outcome is to turn you into good consumers. It is to keep people isolated, to feel that there is no possibility for social change." � David Barsamian journalist and publisher

"I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America." � Alexis de Tocqueville French political thinker, traveller author of Democracy in America 1805-1859

"Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger." � Herman Goering Nazi Air Force (Luftwaffe) commander at the Nuremberg Trials

Nothing new here, please move along! (LOL)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/07/2003; 14:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108271)

Retails in bookstores for $14.95. Buy it here for only $5.95.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

turkey hunter

(09/07/2003; 14:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108272)

India: Gold's Share Dips Below 5.5% On Rising Forex Reserves

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=41621snip......

"There is a four-point agenda for the RBI and its new governor. The first one is to increase the overall quantity of gold in the Forex kitty. In addition, it is important that India is able to develop an efficient spot and forwards market for gold. Also, India needs to have sufficient liquidity, regular, safe and cheap gold supply system with good delivery standards which are also pre-requisites for the smooth functioning of a bullion exchange.

A significant percentage of household savings in India are canalised into gold. While this is very positive, most of this is executed through the (informal) jeweller sector. In order to provide the consumer with more choice and with the RBI's support, there is a need to channelise a part of this Rs 5,000 crore annual investment flow through the organised banking system by actively promoting Gold Savings Accounts and Gold Accumulation Accounts.

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 15:07:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108273)

Money is a symbol system for exchanging real things by proxy.

Levi PhilosMoney does not stand alone.

Society is a mutual support organization.

The dead do not support the living.

Money, as a symbol system by which real stuff can be traded in proxy, must of necessity symbolically represent real stuff in believable ways.

When we gold bugs (and the anti-gold bugs) cry "Collapse is near!", then we ask ourselves what remedies are proposed?

Are we to obtain piles of gold and silver coins and stop doing meaningfull work?

Are we to sit around and admire the little piles of metal like boy scouts around a campfire? Has real money been reduced to such a conceptual notional ideation?

Money is a symbol system for exchanging real goods and services by proxy, and as an institution of human design will work better when it symbolically displays the entropy, shelf life, storage cost, and so forth of real stuff.

Money does not stand alone.

Essentially, money is an extension of speech.

When farmer A leans over the fence and says to farmer B that he will trade some chickens for vegetables, the words are the money, and a handshake the contract and bond. This is mutual credit in action.

Here is Marshall McLuhan on money as a branch of language:

Marshall McLuhan in Understanding Media - The Extension of Man (1963-64) on page 142:

"In a word, money is not a closed system, and does not have meaning alone. As a translator and amplifier, money has the exceptional powers of substituting one kind of thing for another..... Money, which had been for centuries the principle transmitter and exchanger of information, is now having its function increasingly transferred to science and automation."

Marshall McLuhan Again:

"Like works and language, money is a storehouse of communally achieved work, skill, and experience.... Even today money is a language for translating the work of the farmer into the work of the barber, doctor, engineer, or plumber. As a vast social metaphor, bridge, or translator, money - like writing - speeds up exchange and tightens the bonds of interdependence in any community. It gives great spatial extension and control to political organization, just as writing does or the calendar. It is action at a distance, both in space and in time. In a highly literate....society, �time is money� and money is the store of other people�s time and effort." (page 136)

Here is Dr Blain of the University of Southern Illinois:

http://www.siue.edu/SOCIOLOGY/journal/blain.htm

Begin quote from Blain�s writing:

"The symbols variable includes four types; speech, writing, numbers, and money. In that order, they carry decreasing amounts of information, increasing distances. The invention of writing reduced entropy because people could write their messages in a more durable form than the sound waves of spoken language. Simon Dinitz, a colleague at Ohio State, suggested that Marshall McLuhan�s, Understanding Media: Extensions of Man (1964) might be helpful to me. McLuhan suggested that money was a form of communication like speech and writing. Parsons also had suggested that money was a medium of communication, especially important in the transactions that occur between households and business firms. After reading a small paperback by a retired dentist, Dr. Edward Popp, Money: Bona Fide and Non-Bona Fide, (1970) I understood money as a medium of communication that conveyed less information than ordinary writing but longer information chain distances. This relation of money to speech and writing was reinforced by how easily the economic concepts of inflation and money velocity fit the paradigm. Inflation is loss of value, that is, loss of information, with money. Money velocity is the number of times money changes hands in a given time period, that is, information chain length.

Seeing money as a medium of communication immediately raised the question, When money talks, what does it say?

Quickly, I realized that money does not say what people want. People must say what they want with a spoken or written statement, or perhaps with a gesture. Perhaps money says how much people want something, but that would not explain why someone would give it to them.

Here is more on Marshall McLuhan on money as an act of communication:

http://www.cyberclass.net/marshall.htm

Here, you can find the two Dr Popp books:

http://www.appropriate-economics.org/materials.html

Ok, by what process does value get inducted into money?

http://www.moneymaker.com/italy/lire-1e.htm

What is the ultimate value against which other values are compared?

It is said that a man is a gene�s way of begetting another gene.

The ultimate value choice against which all other values are measured is that action which will keep the person alive into tomorrow - or if life itself is threatened - pass the person�s genes forward into the future.

Gold, as a value standard, really is about stopping the lying. We have a serious problem today with liars. When you create algorithms for constant value (Irving Fishers indexing) where a gold dollar is the number being indexed, then the result is a degree of stability resulting from the inability of liars to ply their trade.

The usual question raised about "value" is actually a misplaced anxiety masking the true question. The true question is "How do I know this money symbol will trade for something else of value?" or, in other words, "Who is the guarantor of specific performance?"

What did Nobel prize winner Soddy say about money?

http://www3.sympatico.ca/truegrowth/kutyn.htm

Bastiat said value was a comparison of one service against another service. Bastiat, in defining value, quotes Condillac that in any exchange their must be "two gains"; otherwise an exchange would not take place. Bastiat seeks to go behind this statement, but does so by arguing that value arises from the exchange of "services" for other "services" (cf. Essays, pp. 160-161). (Extracted definition from Mises site:)

http://www.mises.org/bastiat200.asp

For much more on Bastiat on the topic of value:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basHar0.html

Or go to the table of contents. Chapter five is titled "On Value" but chapter eleven is equally instructive on this topic.

Dr Popp explained why the "imaginary value" of coinage needs to exceed the commodity value of the metals contained within the coinage or the coin would be removed from circulation. ($50.00 face value Gold Eagle)

Riegel very nearly invented a LETS system in the forties. You can find two Riegel documents here: (catch the Dr Popp files also)

http://www.appropriate-economics.org/materials.html

and more Riegel data here:

http://www.newapproachtofreedom.info and

http://www.reinventingmoney.com/

The "Dove" is correct in that we need debt forgiveness, and XXXX is certain that debt forgiveness will happen because it is mathematically necessary, but beyond that, your understanding of what money actually is will be furthered by thinking of any act of giving or receiving money as an act of communication.

However, the rules for money as communication necessarily include a high need for truth and accuracy. Gold, silver, or deposits of other commodities of commonly accepted
"value" are really acting as performance bonds.

Silvio Gesell�s concepts apply to warehouse receipt money that is 100% backed by product, but not really to credit money.

For instance I�ve got this 1970 Rolls Royce Silver Shadow

(http://bizseen.com/rolls/index.htm)

and since you have an empty garage, I would like to store it in your garage. This is a valuable automobile in short supply, and I want you to provide a secure building and a guard to prevent theft plus an insurance policy against storms and fire. I don�t want you loaning it out to anybody because when I come to take it for a ride, I expect you to hand me the keys without question. I will carry the title to the vehicle as my claim to this auto. And I want you to provide all this for free!

Sound silly?

Sure, but many people expect that from a bank. One thousand depositors of gold could easily deposit the value of several Rolls Royce autos.

A gold certificate therefore is a title claim to a gold deposit held in storage at a bank.

Just as the garage owner would be correct to charge a substantial monthly fee on the storage of one Rolls Royce, a banker would be justified to charge a "carry fee" on a gold certificate title claim to a gold deposit. Fair is fair!

That is the difference between what Japanese banks and the Dallas fed are talking about on a "carry charge" on credit money and what Gesell was describing. The Gesellian concepts only apply to warehouse receipts that are redeemable in actual goods.

The event most people read about at Worgl Austria was not exactly true to the concept. The major held Austrian money in an account (the Austrian money was the shilling which in turn may have been redeemable) and local money was issued against the deposit. It did prove quite successful and circulated at a rate that was at least 12 times the normal rate. Hans Eisenkolb has more details on his website.

However, the previous run of the Wara note was in Germany. The Wara started sort of like some local community currency startup backed by the good will of the users. It faltered along with very limited success until something very significant happened. The owner of a coal mine decided trying the Wara was better than nothing and backed the Wara note with coal. At this time in history coal was the main provider of heat and power so it had a nearly universal market in Germany. Now, the Wara note said "This is a title claim on coal. Pay a monthly storage cost on the coal, or pick up the product by presenting the title at the mine shaft."

Using algorithms for constant value (search for the Borsodi algorithm) thus limiting the original issue to a half dozen cereal grains, this concept would absolutely stabilize the value of money and solve a number of social issues at the same time. When new money came into existence in direct proportion to cereal grains harvested and ready for market, food distribution and food shortages would end up to the point where the earth could deliver no more. Bankers who were now dependent upon demurrage charges on circulating currency would have no incentive to hold money symbols in shortage.

In turn, the bankers (creators of the warehouse receipt that is hypothecated into general circulation medium of exchange) need to be held responsible for delivery of actual product. Specific performance of contract or go to prison. 100% backing.

Two faces of debt is a 390Kb download.

http://www.globaldebtsolution.com/pdf/TwoFacesOfDebt-ChicagoFeds.pdf

Modern Money Mechanics is about 360 kb html file.

http://landru.myhome.net/monques/mmm2.html#MODERN

Mark Twain said there are three kinds of liars. Liars, damned liars and statistics. After looking through MMM several years back, I realized that the charts showing debt growth and the predictions derived from the charts could be inverted and predictions made about what would happen should debt reach its final destination - exponential dead end.

The Turmel Group is an open archive and that piece is found here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel/message/1225 of the Turmel list.

This next URL will open the subject lines of 100 messages on the Turmel list:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel/messages/1164?viscount=100

The first message, #1164 is titled "The Stone Donut Money of Yapp."

If you look through the Monques page, down at the bottom is a series titled GILBERT�S LETTERS. It is relatively short and of some humor.

Robert Carroll has been writing on the money system for over 20 years.

Perhaps a critical question has not been directly addressed. That question is, "Who is the owner of the credit?"

The fifth plank of the communist manifesto clearly puts the ownership of credit in the hands of the state with banks empowered to hypothecate the credit into terms of a common currency.

Proudhon said that the only proper credit was mutual credit, that is to say that people could extend credit to each other. LETS systems is a formalized system of mutual credit.

Riegel said credit is something that producers could extend to consumers of their products. The state in this model is a consumer and could be extended credit, but any associated credit creation interest charges should be paid to the producer.

The present United States dollar is created by this process: A promissory note is written to the federal reserve banking system and evidenced by a deposit of bonds. The backing for this promissory note is the taxation power of government. A corresponding credit to the treasury of the US is entered in the double entry bookkeeping system and the credit spent into circulation. The bonds held by the fed are also a marketable financial instrument.

The flaw here is that neither the government nor the banking system are producers of anything. The second flaw is that the money to pay the interest charges on the bonds is not concurrently created. The process degenerated into an enslaving process where the people are finally looked at as the property of government and all capital becomes owned by the banking system.

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present
civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

A philosophical shift to where credit is the property of individuals and any hypothecation process would reflect that fact is needed. Major Clifford Douglas whose work I am NOT familiar with may have shed some light on the needed philosophical shift.

Toward a deeper understanding,,,,,,,,

I suspect there is an entirely different way of looking at financing public utilities. (Public utilities in this message refers to more than electrical generation or irrigation storage dams. Public utilities can be airports, highways, or possibly even the school system.)

When a group of people in a region recognize a publicly shared need and a solution is agreed upon; the present system creates bonds (government bonds are promissory notes drawn against the government�s ability to collect taxes) and these bonds are sold to persons who have "savings."

However, consider that all the ideas and all the work and all the materials are supplied by the people. All the financier has done is supply pieces of paper enabling the work to proceed. Try thinking of these pieces of paper as permission slips. The people had the idea, the plan, the labor, and the materials, but they needed to wait for the financial system to give them permission to proceed. The hypothecated debt instrument becomes a debt to the people and a credit to the financier.

Thomas Edison noted......

"It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30,000,000 in bonds and not $30,000,000 in currency. Both are promises to pay; but one promise fattens the usurer, and the other helps the people. If the currency issued by the Government were no good, then the bonds issued would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious values of gold."
.
"Look at it another way. If the Government issues bonds, the brokers will sell them. The bonds will be negotiable; they will be considered as gilt edged paper. Why? Because the government is behind them, but who is behind the Government? The people. Therefore it is the people who constitute the basis of Government credit. Why then cannot the people have the benefit of their own gilt-edged credit by receiving non-interest bearing currency on Muscle Shoals, instead of the bankers receiving the benefit of the people's credit in interest-bearing bonds?"--Thomas Edison

Shouldn�t the completed public utility become owned as a credit to the people?"

Now, consider an answer supplied by using demurrage to retire the circulation over time, rather than taxation. In this model, the new money is printed and used to pay for the construction of the public utility. Over time, the utility ages as entropy sets in.

Over time, the created "permission slips" are retired as entropy is expressed in the symbol system we call money.

Somehow seems simpler to administer than the present system of taxation. Just use point of payment technology already used to run sales taxes to extract a demurrage charge on the circulating currency.

[The message above was posted to the IJCCR list; links below]

Community email addresses:

Post message: ijccr@yahoogroups.com
Subscribe: ijccr-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Unsubscribe: ijccr-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
List owner: ijccr-owner@yahoogroups.com

IJCCR website: http://www.geog.le.ac.uk/ijccr

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

http://www.freedomdomain.com/bankquot.html

Plenty of great links in this thread! The entire money issue can be solved by returning to the bi-metallic standard of honest and fair money concepts! Caveat Emptor

R Powell

(09/07/2003; 15:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108274)

COT report

I'm late this weekend completing my homework which always includes inspecting the COT reports of many items. Gold is always on the radar screen. Being a seasoned veteran of COT reports, I thought I had developed a business like callousness to protect me from startling reports but...well, how can I explain this...I was shocked! Rich, how can you be unnerved over paper contract numbers? Yes, I understand, I guess it's a paper trading thing, excuse me.

Anyway, the cause of my astonishment is with the gold market numbers as of 9/2/03. The large speculative players added a net 22,620 long and the small specs added 4,138 more for a total of 26,758 new longs. Okay so far, and these speculative boys also added shorts (probably spread trading) but the selling (reduced longs and new shorts totaling 26,620) came from the commercials. In one weeks time the commercials sold a boatload of gold and the specs grabbed them all and then some! Open interest increased by 31,972 to 274,981.

There was no short covering at all! All three groups added short contracts while the speculators not only bought more longs but also greatly increased their percentage of the longs.

For those who like to envision this trading as a war between the nasty cartel of paper gold sellers and the forces of good buying gold, this was an epoch battle. The buyers withstood an onslaught of selling (25,228), absorbed it all and even forced the cartel to use some of their reserves (1,530 of their scarce long contracts). I would love to know if this battle was initiated by the sellers or the buyers? It was won decivively by the buyers. How "weak" are these so-called weak new longs? Analysts say that a real, good ripsnortin bull market must- must- have more than just short covering. There must be new demand. Gentlemen and ladies, I submit that with absolutely NO shortcovering shown in this report and O.I. soaring, we have demand. As was answered in "Dune" to the inquiry if there was wormsign; we have wormsign, the likes of which this COT inspector has never seen! How strong is this demand and how strong and solid are the (evil?) sellers? We shall see!
Happy weekend to all
Rich

Gonlyold

(09/07/2003; 15:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108275)

Documenting Gold Transactions

http://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll?f=templates&fn=main-h.htm&cp=PORCSome time ago I mentioned that Ohio has mandated laws on the sale of gold and other precious metals. At the time I didn't post the cites in the Ohio Revised Code (ORC). For your information it's listed above and here are some excerpts.

According to the ORC, each precious metal purchase from a seller to the dealer must be documented by Ohio Precious Metals Dealers,.

"� 4728.06 Books and forms to be used and kept

Every person licensed under this chapter shall keep and use books and forms approved by the superintendent of financial institutions, which shall disclose, at the time of each purchase, a full and accurate description including identifying letters or marks thereon of the articles purchased, with the name, age, place of residence, driver's or commercial driver's license number or other personal identification, and a short physical description of the person of the seller. The licensee also shall write in the book the name of the maker. The licensee shall keep the books in numerical order at all times at the licensed location, open to the inspection of the superintendent or chief of or head of the local police department, a police officer deputed by the chief or head of police, or the chief executive officer of the political subdivision thereof. Upon demand of any of these officials, the licensee shall produce and show an article thus listed and described which is in the licensee's possession.

� 4728.07 Daily report to police department.

Each person licensed under Chapter 4728. of the Revised Code, shall, every business day, make available to the chief or the head of the local police department, on forms furnished by the police department, a description of all articles received by the licensee on the business day immediately preceding, together with the number of the receipt issued."

Then the code lists some exemptions as follows:

"� 4728.11 Exemptions

This chapter does not apply to any of the following:

(A)Any purchase of an article that is made of or contains gold, silver, platinum, or other precious metals or jewels of any description if both the buyer and seller, or the respective agents, brokers, or other intermediaries of both the buyer and seller, deal in such articles or otherwise by their respective occupations, or by their respective avocations as collectors, speculators, or investors, hold themselves out as having knowledge or skill peculiar to such articles or the practices involved in their purchase or sale;

(E)(Deals with silveware dealers. exemtion "F" is the noteworthy one.))

(F)Any purchase of coins, hallmark bars, registered ingots, and other items as numismatic objects, and not for their content of precious metals."

Apparently, transactions between dealers are exempt but not between individuals. And certainly a case could be made with reference to the "skill" level. Hm-m-m-m!

And it appears that numismatic transactions are exempted. But wait! They then close these loop holes by citing what the exempt person must do.

"� 4728.12 Duties of person exempt from licensing

A person exempt from licensing under division (E) or (F) of section 4728.11 of the Revised Code, and who in the ordinary course of the person's business obtains ownership by purchase of articles made of or containing gold, silver, platinum, or other precious metals or jewels of any description from the public, shall maintain at each business location for at least the twelve months immediately succeeding any such transaction a record that shall include the following:

(1) The date and time of the transaction;

(2) The name and residential address of the seller and the means of identification used to establish the seller's identity;

(3) A physical description of the seller;

(4) A complete and accurate description of the article, including any brand names, initials, serial numbers, or other identifying marks, monograms, or symbols on the article;

(5) The price paid for each article and the means of payment.

(C) Within sixty days after opening a new business location, any person exempt from licensing under division (E) or (F) of section 4728.11 of the Revised Code shall notify in writing the chief or head of the police department having local jurisdiction in the place where the business is located of the location of the records the person maintains pursuant to division (A) of this section. These records shall be available during normal business hours for inspection by the superintendent of financial institutions or the superintendent's designee, or by the chief or head of the local police department or the chief's or head's designee."

Some key verbage are the words "from the public". A case could be made for private transactions which, I believe, would be exempt. But that could probably end up in court.

All this appears to be done under the cloak of protecting the buyer from stolen property. However, to me, this is nothing more than a ploy by Big Brother to document who has the metal. Anyone want to buy precious metals from Ohio? Then again, I wonder what your state has on the law books.

Also, it's interesting that there is no requirement to allow the Sheriff, as in a Constitutional entity, access to the records. Hm-m-m-m again. Does this say that they, the statutes, recognize that the Constitution protects "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects..."

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 15:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108276)

Ezra Pound was right !

http://65.40.245.240/italy/lire-1e.htm4) Credit value and monetary value: distinguishing characteristics

It is now time to clear up the misunderstanding caused by, erroneously, equating monetary value with credit value. In order to understand the great difference between money and credit, it is sufficient to consider the following points:
a) Credit is extinguished by a payment; money continues to circulate, after every transaction, because it is an item of continuous utility, like every unit of measure.

b) Credit value is exposed to the risk of non-fulfilment; the monetary value is real, and certain, because, due to legal induction, money is a real good and, moreover, an item of continuous utility.
c) In the case of credit, the normative precept is required first and is followed by its manifestation. In the case of money, the formal manifestation of monetary symbols is first created and these symbols are, then, given value, during the act of issue. The one, who gives money its value, is not the one who issues it, but the one who accepts it. In the case of physical induction, electric energy is generated by the rotation of the dynamo's components. Similarily, in the case of legal induction, monetary value is created during the act of issue, that is to say at the dynamic moment, when it enters circulation among the members of the community, who give it conventional value, by accepting it. The issue of symbols in the form of legal tender is an act of "heteronomy"; the acceptance of money, which conventionally determines the value, is an act of "autonomy". To say that the value of money is not created, by the one who accepts it, but by the one, who issues the symbols, is like saying that electrical energy is created, not by the person, who causes the dynamo to rotate, but by the person who manufactures it.

The usurocratic hegemony of the banking system is based on this misunderstanding.

d) Credit value is caused by the promise of the debtor, as in the case of a bill of exchange, where the issuer is the debtor. Monetary value is caused by the acceptance, of the first person to accept it. Nowadays, money is issued as if it were a spurious bill of exchange, because the governor of the central bank, signing, as if he was the debtor, makes the people believe, incorrectly, that he is the one who creates monetary value.

e) The theories, which claim to explain money as an instrument of credit, representing the available goods on the market, are also incorrect in their attempts to give money a unilateral purchasing power (in this connection, we recall Nixon's statement at Camp David on 15 August 1971 which abolished the dollar's convertibility in gold and revoked the Bretton Woods agreement). Like every other unit of measure, money has only got utility, if there are objects to measure. If there were no objects to measure in length, a metre would be as useless, as money would be, if there were no objects whose value could be measured. But this does not mean that a unit of measure represents the measured objects.

The definitive proof of the insufficiency of this thesis is that, while the bearer of a certificate of credit can ask for the object of credit, by presenting the document, the bearer of money can only propose the purchase of goods, to the owner (or accept the owner's proposal), offering money as a real good and object of exchange. Futhermore, as we have shown above a "title of credit" is extinguished by the payment, whereas money continues to circulate, after every transaction, because like every unit of measure, it is an item of continuous utility.

f) We may conclude that induced value differs from credit value because of the different legal circumstances. Credit arises from the relationship (whether negotiable or not) between creditor and debtor, whereas induced value is caused, exclusively, by the convention which binds the national community, in acceptance of their money. This, also, explains, why monetary units are characterized by nationality.

This should answer the dollar/oil/gold connection!

Gonlyold

(09/07/2003; 15:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108277)

OPPS!

I mentioned that the Sheriff s a Constitutional entity. This can be debated. However, he is an elected entity while the police are not. Without getting into that debate, perhaps I should have just pointed out that the U.S. Constitution protects the people rights.

Belgian

(09/07/2003; 16:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108278)

Re:

Druid : Know what you were talking about... I lost my 6 lavendel plants when dad was taking over when on holidays.

Melting Pot : Keep on posting Sir ! Much appreciated.
Have no comments to add.
Watched another long interview, tonight, with Kohnstamm (Netherlands), the spiritual son of an Euroland founding father, Monnet (France). Main topic was the EU/USUK rift and how this might evolve. The nearby future depends on the neocon-thing in the US and the EU's capability to unite politically . Kohnstamm fears a possible WW-III if the US continues on the Hobbes philosophical line ! The Privatization of power is in sharp contrast with the philosophy of postwar Euroland. It always was the idea of the state's souverainity that caused wars. This is something that the US still has to find out.

Old Europ has the advantage of having so much to look backwards at and master this enormous amount of experiences into something much better and attractive, worldwide. This applies, not the least, to the european single currency (euro), much more advanced (modern) in concept than the old and unworkable dollar-standard !

Under the present Anglo-American supremacy, terror will almost certainly increase as it is the poor/weak man's tool for war in a world that is technically interconnected but politically, rapidly and widely diverging.

More Britisch troops heading to Iraq...for the protection of the oil pipelines !!! Thanks Tony.
Nobody bothers what ordinary Iraqis in Iraq do think about this.

All this events are of a nature that are "isolating" the USUK, increasingly. Such a process of isolation is frightening in a global village context AND ADDING TO THE EXHAUSTION OF THE DOLLAR.

Latest opinion polls in UK resulted in 40% of the Brits wanting Tony to pack and go, now . Wonder if this score will come down after today's London terror-attack excercises ?

Good night from Euroland.

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 16:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108279)

Gonlyold: Constitutional Limitations on GOVERNMENT

http://www.archives.gov/exhibit_hall/charters_of_freedom/declaration/declaration_transcription.htmlWith all due respect, the constitution[s] are limits on the powers of government and government administrators, not limits upon the states or the people. This is self evident as the "sovereign" Citizen does not swear oath to defend and OBEY constitution and it's limitations.

Who are "We the People"

Preamble

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, provide for the common defense, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. --The Constitution of the United States of America

We the People are the elected and those sworn to uphold the constitution[s], We the people is not the common Citizen.

Can the common Citizen:

1) form a more perfect union
2) establish justice
3) insure domestic tranquility
4) provide for the common defense
5) provide for the common defense
6) secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity

The answer is NO. These functions are reserved for the body politic and governing.

Does or did the Common Citizen ordain and/or establish the Constitution by sworn oath? No,,,,not usually unless he enters military or government service.

Again the constitution does not limit the written and unwritten rights of the Citizen, it limits the powers and authority of rulership over the sovereigns.

The government wants you to believe your rights are derived from constitution aka government authority, when in fact they are not, you rights are derived from the creator not government. You are the sovereign and government is SUPPOSED to serve the people, not the people serving government!

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that "AMONG" these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their "JUST" powers from the "CONSENT" of the governed."--IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776, The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, The Declaration of Independence: A Transcription (emphasis added)

To bad the governed have lost this concept and submitted to the usurpations of the unconstitutional governing!

The Truth About The Confederacy
Parents - Teach Your Kids The Truth
By Charley Reese
9-7-3

SNIPS:

Many people today seem to think that the federal government created the states when it was the reverse. The states created the federal government as a stronger form of confederation by delegating certain of their powers to it. Thus, the purpose of the Constitution of 1787, like the Articles of Confederation, was to create a voluntary union to accomplish specific purposes, mainly to ensure a domestic free market, to provide for the common defense of the states and to deal with foreign countries with one voice.

But what is relevant for us today is that the people in the American Republic (1787-1860) understand that the powers of the federal government were strictly limited to those spelled out in the Constitution and that the Constitution would be interpreted literally and narrowly. And, most important, that the states themselves would be the final judge of the federal government's actions.

Comment
Steve Mungie
A native American Indian
9-7-3

When, if ever, can we convince our brethern of color, the truth about what the Confederacy was reallyabout? It was not about color ... it was not about racism ... is was not about slavery. In fact, if you can find older existing history books, you will discover that slavery was being phased out of existance years before the Civil War ever began! And worse, slavery in the North existed long after the Civil War ended.

The whole fight was simply and totally over States' rights, as is clearly laid out in the 9th and the 10th Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

http://www.rense.com/general41/truthab.htm

Below is Article I Section 9 Paragraph 1 and 2 of the the Constitution of the Confederate States of America:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/csa/csa.htm

Sec. 9. (I) The importation of negroes of the African race from any foreign country other than the slaveholding States or Territories of the United States of America, is hereby forbidden; and Congress is required to pass such laws as shall effectually prevent the same.

(2) Congress shall also have power to prohibit the introduction of slaves from any State not a member of, or Territory not belonging to, this Confederacy.

This meant that slavery could not continue through the existing generation. Remember, at that time slaves were private property and the Confederacy would not seize property without due process.

How so very different from the government we have today!

Cometose

(09/07/2003; 16:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108280)

SEPT 5 article from Metropole Cafe

There is an interesting article from METROPOLE CAFE / there was mention somewhere also that Morgan Stanley advised to get out of the Stock Market(below) and went long GOLD Friday .....hmmmmmm!!!!!

FIrst time I've successfully pasted something ...never knew I could/ forgive me if this has already been posted

Snippit:
"Great article from LeMetropole Cafe
Quite a day and one which made a number of things clear. Gold was once again bashed in London and was due to come in $2 lower in New York. It came in firmer than that and then ran when this news hit:

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 93,000 jobs in August, the most since March, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent as more discouraged workers dropped out of the labor force, government figures showed.
Payrolls fell after a revised 49,000 drop in July, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate fell from 6.2 percent in July and 6.4 percent in June, the highest since 1994. �END-

The jobs picture in the US is worsening, not improving, even after all the 13 Fed interest rate cuts, tax cuts and government stimulus. Simultaneously, the Iraq quagmire is accelerating as US expenses mount.

When job numbers were announced, the dollar swooned and S&P futures sold off mildly. Gold reacted very swiftly and went up a few dollars on the day. Comments then surfaced from THREE different quarters that central/bullion banks were capping the rally. It is nauseating how Groundhog Day won't go away. The movie was funny. This is an outrage.

Gold calmed down and got very quiet, holding $2+ gains. When the stock market began to weaken late in the Comex session, gold burst $5 higher out of nowhere, taking out stops, and rallied up to $379.50. Once again, cabal forces regrouped and instituted their $6 rule. How many times has MIDAS brought the $6 rule to your attention over the years? I have lost count.

Even as the desperate Gold Cartel gradually loses their war, they continue to fight one losing battle after another. This is exactly why I have ranted for so long that the gold price would never soar to where it should be until these low-life bums are carried out on a stretcher. Yes, the GATA stretcher-bearers are standing by.

It is GATA griping these days. When the stock market really falls apart and US investors lose a good deal of their money again, there will be outcries asking how it could have all happened. One need only go to Wall Street, various banks, the US political leaders and the US financial press. Together, they have facilitated a monstrosity.

Back to the gold action. One of the Gold Cartel rats may be leaving the ship. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley (as a firm) advised all their branch offices to get out of the stock market. Today, when the stock market made new lows, it was Morgan Stanley's enormous buying which took gold up through the day's highs. My take is MS sees the handwriting on the wall. The financial market managing by the Fed, ESF, bullion dealers in the cabal, and various other Wall Street houses is about to blow up. Morgan Stanley is running for the hills while they can. They know what can happen to the price of gold because they have been part of the rigging process for so long.

Another Ground Hogger: once again we see gold moving higher first, which leads to a dollar move lower. That said, we can see how frightened The Gold Cartel is of gold taking out the $370+ area. The dollar fell 1.14 to 97.13 and the euro rose 1.75 to 110.97, yet gold was only allowed to rally $4.70. Over a two-day period the dollar has dropped 1 � points with gold only allowed to rise $3.80. Obviously, the crooked ones are hoping they catch a break early next week to do what they can to take gold down again.

John Brimelow tells me the volume on Comex was 19,000 contracts the last half-hour, or 1/3 of what it was for the entire session. That will give you some idea what kind of Gold Cartel firepower it took to keep gold from taking out the $378/$380 area. What a bunch of desperados!

The dollar completely broke down technically:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/93

Gold closed in new high ground, flying out of a small flag formation:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

The gold open interest fell a miniscule 7 contracts. There was no shakeout on the setback.

Yesterday, I mentioned how gold sells-off the day after The Gold Cartel knocks gold down purposely and noticeably on the close. It always comes in lower the next day and stays lower. However, the day after that, gold has continually risen and usually quite strongly, mostly after another lower opening. Happened again today. This is important to keep track of because it shows a pattern of strong hand buyers laying in wait for the predictable Gold Cartel. This powerful buying group knows exactly what they are doing.

The gold trading action over the last many weeks suggests the info I received about a $4.6 billion buy order is right on the money. These big buyers are toying with the cabal, buying as much gold as they can on breaks and keeping the futures market from liquidating. When they are ready, they will pull the plug and jerk the futures market through the roof. It will cause our long awaited Commercial Signal Failure and cause some major shorts to cover out of necessity.

Perhaps we will get our long awaited breakaway gap opening on Monday. It's long overdue.

Silver bolted sharply higher and then was held in check the rest of the session. When the price managers lose control of silver, it is going to blow sky high. I am still looking for a $1 move up in one Comex trading session alone.

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

One of my reflections last night was on the Bernanke comments reported yesterday:

"The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep interest rates low even during a robust recovery because deflation remains the main risk to the economy, Federal Reserve Gov. Ben Bernanke said Thursday."

What could be more gold friendly and dollar bearish than a Fed announcing it is going to keep our short rates low regardless of how our economy is pumping along? To me it shouts, "BUY GOLD!"

"

Cavan Man

(09/07/2003; 17:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108281)

Cometose

That's Murphy

Gonlyold

(09/07/2003; 17:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108282)

Ref: Documenting Gold Transactions; Melting Pot

Melting Pot, with reference to your statement that the Constitution places, "limits on the powers of government and government administrators, not limits upon the states or the people.", you are absolutely correct. I stand corrected on this detail. And to be more specific, some people draw a distinction between the Constitution and the Bill of Rights: the Constitution being a business plan for our form of government while the Bill of Rights does the actual limiting of the power of government.

It would be noteworthy for those supporting the Euro and EU that to realize that the EU does NOT have such government limiting Bills of Rights. In the EU, the leaders are kings and you shall do the bidding of those kings. So when you see the dollar falling, just think of what is being said. If the world is dumping dollars and buying euros and looking at the US as "going down", then so too are the last vestages of the world's freedom. I think Belgian once asked for a reason to support the dollar. This may be THE reason as far as the US is concerned.

Melting Pot

(09/07/2003; 17:45:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108283)

No Hope for Mankind until Honest Money System and Freedom Reigns

http://65.40.245.240/italy/lire-1e.htm5) The great usury

After proving that money is, simultaneously, a measure of value, and the value of the measure, it is, unquestionably, true that the monetary mass constitutes a mirror-like duplicate of the value of real goods, measured, or measurable, in terms of their value. This duplicate value can have the positive sign of an asset (and in this case, it doubles the people's wealth), or the negative sign of a debt (in which case it creates a desperate and agonising situation because of inevitable insolvency).

When money was made from gold, the bearer was, also, the owner. Since the advent of "nominal money", he has, without realising it, become a debtor. All "nominal money" is issued by the banks, in the form of loans. Thus, all money in circulation is burdened, with debt, to the central banks. Therefore, if someone wants to pay off a debt of money, with money, it would be the same as paying a debt, with another debt. IT CANNOT BE DONE. In the long run, he is forced to pay with his own capital and with the produce of his labour.

With the discovery of induced value as a legal value, it is not only proven that money must be considered, as the property of the national community, but, also, that, currently, the central bank, by loaning out, what is in fact due, imposes a cost of 200% on money, at the act of issue: the initial 100%, because it expropriates the community of the induced value (only an owner can lend money), and a further 100% by forcing the national community into debt, to the same extent.

Furthermore, it is also evident that banks, and other credit institutions, "create" money, in a surreptitious way. Applying the principle of so-called credit multiplication, they lend money in an increased proportion, to the sums, which have been deposited with them. For example, they lend 100% with a 20% monetary liquidity reserve. All this can be done, because a great part of the lent money is deposited in a bank, again, so that a reserve of 20% is, usually, sufficient to satisfy a request for money. Hence, it is evident that a bank can lend money, which it does not have, to an amount of 80% of the loan. Consequently, this difference of 80% is, in fact, induced value (not credit value), which should be represented by legal-tender, paper money, not by instruments of credit. Properly considered, its ownership should be attributed to the community (not to the banks), who could then deposit it in a bank, as creditors and not as debtors.

This principle of credit multiplication expropriates the people, and causes debts, to the extent of the induced value as explained above, thus, it results in "debt multiplication", which was a consequence, and a corollary, of the scheme developed by Paterson, in 1694, for the Bank of England, founded with the aim of making loans, using the "notes of the bank" (i.e. bills of exchange) in place of money (gold). These bank-notes were "nominal money" and, also, "debt-money".

As a result of these practices, the people of the world have been dispossessed of their own money, forced into debt, without receiving anything in return.

Only in the light of the preceding considerations does it become possible to formulate a correct interpretation of the modern age.

6) Organic society and instrumental subjectivities

The advent of the constitutional state was not merely a simple, political choice, but also an historical one. The proliferation of "legal phantoms" (so-called "instrumental subjectivities") has taken the place of the old, catholic monarchies of the Old Europe, the last descendants of the Holy Roman Empire. Thus, the possibility to plan and change ethical parameters has also been created.

The concept of society was considered, as a concept without a human content, i.e. an "instrument", so that making use of it, and not "serving it", was the only possibility. We can only make use of an instrument: it is ridiculous to serve an instrument. In this way, a concept of ethics, driven by economic considerations, developed. The principle, "that which is right (just) is advantageous", was replaced by the new principle, "that which is advantageous is right".

The concept of a society, which exploits the instrumental subjectivities, has taken the place of a society, based on natural law, i.e. people united by an organic relationship. In this way, national communities have become the "exploited society" and humanity has entered an age of decadence.

"Debt-money" is the instrument, which the "exploiters" have used, in order to become the real puppet-masters of history.

With this new monetary system, the central bank can, at any time, lay claim to as much money, as it requires in "repayment", because all money has been issued by the bank, in the form of of loans. Since the bank exercises control over the political authority, or at least the Treasury and ,hence, budgetary and fiscal matters, it can, at any time, retire all the money it desires from the market, by means of fiscal levies (taxation) or interest rates.

The people have really and truly become cows to be milked. This was the aim of the French Revolution, which was, strategically, planned by the Bank of England. By substituing debt-money (the bank-note), for asset-money (money as property, i.e. gold), the system of the central banks has taken possession of, almost, double the circulating money of all the world, because it has disposessed and indebted the people, without giving anything in return.

By manipulating the conditioned reflex, of habitually giving an equivalent to get money, the central banks have forced all the people, of the world, to accept, at the moment of issue, monetary symbols of negligible cost, as the equivalent of a debt. But this is an unfair exchange, because the debt is not proportionate to the cost of the symbols (as it should have been), but rather to the induced value of the money (which is not produced by the bank of issue, but by social convention).

It is as if someone lending empty fish-baskets to fishermen, thereby, forced them into debt, not only for fish-baskets, but also for fish.

Cavan Man

(09/07/2003; 18:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108284)

Bond market losses continuing tomorrow.......

But hey, we're talking ideology (NOT JUSTICE)washingtonpost.com
Bush Vows to Spend What Is Necessary to Win War

Reuters
Sunday, September 7, 2003; 6:17 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will say in a speech to the nation on Sunday night that crushing a guerrilla campaign in Iraq will take time and require sacrifices, and he will vow to spend whatever is necessary for victory.

According to speech excerpts released by the White House, Bush also will say members of the United Nations "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility, to assume a broader role in assuring that Iraq becomes a free and democratic nation."

CM comment: There's a teriffic book by Barbara Tuchman; "The March of Folly". Here in the US, we are writing Another chapter. As a minor note of interest, I might add that this part of the world has NO history of democracy; especially the variety imposed by occupation. Sorry to state the obvious.

I suppose the underlying agenda is to absolutely and unconditiopnally FLOOD THE WORLD with USD. Talk about a global currency; we are!

THIS IS ALL VERY POSITIVE (UNFORTUNATELY) FOR GOLD AND HER SHARES.

misetich

(09/07/2003; 18:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108285)

Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085Snip:

Economists fear that Asian investors, who are the largest foreign owners of US Treasuries, may cut their holdings of US government debt, withdrawing a key source of financing for America's large current account deficit.

The worries have been fuelled by recent sharp falls in the price of US government debt.
............
He said there had already been a "noticeable shift" downwards in the amount of debt issued by mortgage financiers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae being bought by foreign investors.
...........
*********
Misetich

When it rains it pours! and lets not forget the edict issued by EU to its members to dump GSE's debt -

The argument put forth by the "who me worry" its your problem and not Americas is going to be testd sooner than many expect, as the risks are rising for all US $ investment holders as the effects of a stock market bubble bust are still ongoing

...forcing US Treasury and CB in taking unprecendent and unchared steps with little success todate. As a matter of fact all actions taken thus far has only post-poned the inevitable

Easy Al money creation machine has kept the game going through the refinancing scam, which in turn fuelled a housing and bond bubble

..with GSE's needing debt market, US Treasury needing debt market to fund its ever growing deficit

" Who Me Worry" ? - should think again!

Yes you should worry and add some insurance to your soon to be US $ investment vanishing portfolio

BUY PHYSICAL GOLD ! and who better to service your needs than the good our gracious host USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

silvercollector

(09/07/2003; 18:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108286)

Belgium

My confusion was only the statement, "...US wants oil priced higher...". How does higher priced oil keep "the dollar-system working"?

From your next thought, "..orderly/peaceful rebuilding of Iraq AND a definitive solution for the Israeli/Palestinian question." Regarding your next question, "Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be ?" Exactly the theme of my rant. IMHO the complete (and final) breakdown of negotiations in January and Febuary (pre-war) is the last straw, the end of the road. The US and France will never agree to anything ever again, NEVER. The US boycotted french wine and renamed 'french fries' to 'freedom fries'. Do you believe that? I wonder what stunt the French pulled??

"Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be?" Did you catch Mr. Bush tonight? Here is a beauty, (the United Nations) "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility, to assume a broader role in assuring that Iraq becomes a free and democratic nation."

Mr. Bush blew up and burnt a country and after 6 months we (the world) still await his reasoning. Apparently, the UN "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility.." to clean up his world size path of destruction.

Let's back up one square. The US said last week that they needed help but WOULD REMAIN AS THE LEAD PLAYER. F,G,R & C have said in the last couple days that the UN would help if THE UN WOULD BE THE LEAD PLAYER. It's the NO WAR, YES WAR augument again. This will end bad.

Note that FGRC (France, Germany, Russia & China)have said the UN would ................. FGRC is the UN!!!!! The US in not the UN. This thing is growing into the UN (the world) aginst the US.

Bush doesn't get it.

a nation of one

(09/07/2003; 19:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108287)

Re: Mr. Ron Paul's piece

He says: "If honest money and freedom are inseparable, as Mr. Greenspan argued, and paper money leads to tyranny, one must wonder why it's so popular with economists, the business community, bankers, and our government officials. The simplest explanation is that it's a human trait to always seek the comforts of wealth with the least amount of effort. This desire is quite positive when it inspires hard work and innovation in a capitalist society. Productivity is improved and the standard of living goes up for everyone. This process has permitted the poorest in today's capitalist countries to enjoy luxuries never available to the royalty of old."

He is wrong about this. It is not a human trait. It may be a widespread preference among many people, but not all. Therefore, it is not a human trait, merely a widespread preference. Others place means before ends, and, to them, what is important is not the ease with which the comfort of wealth may be acquired, but other criteria, such as -but not limited to this- the type of effort made, or, with some, the degree of legality or morality complied with, or, the quality of compassion to others that the activity provides to humanity generally, or, numerous other value systems, as subjectively perceived by the human individuals involved. I think the real answer to the first sentence in the above paragraph of his comments is that there is more wealth to be made in the destruction of a civilization than in the building up of one, and that Mr. Greenspan realizes this on some level, and so do others, and that that is the underlying intention. There are other reasons too. But this is the central one, as I see it.

Cavan Man

(09/07/2003; 19:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108288)

You know what's always in the details

Bye, bye USTWashingtonpost.com
Bush Will Seek $87 Billion for Iraq

Reuters
Sunday, September 7, 2003; 7:48 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will announce on Sunday night that he plans to ask Congress for $87 billion to fund the U.S. military deployment in Iraq and pay for reconstruction, a Republican source said.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the money would fund U.S. military operations in Iraq and reconstruction over the coming budget year.

Ten Bears

(09/07/2003; 20:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108289)

Melting Pot

I enjoyed your week-end posts. Thanks.

I seem to recall reading that Ezra Pound's father worked for Alexander Del Mar (when Del Mar was the U.S. Chief Statistician). Del Mar's books appear to be the philosophical basis for Pounds� economic views. Pound sponsored the later research of Eustace Mullins on the Federal Reserve. Later works, including "Secrets of the Federal Reserve" by William Greider, appear to have used Mullins� work without giving him credit (probably due to the extreme unpopularity of Mullins in certain circles). I appreciate your reference to Steve Mungie. Those of us who are descendents of the original Americans and European settlers often have a multi-faceted view of American history and economics.

Gonlyold

(09/07/2003; 20:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108290)

Shift in World Power To Those Who Have The Gold - Not Going To Happen

This is my opinion. I've always meant to research this but never did. So I'll just put it out there and let you correct me and advise me on my areas of deficiency.

The existing world powers, US, England, France, Russia, China, The Middle East (as a whole) are presently in that position due to many reasons EXCEPT that of being a predominant gold producing nation. (This comment will most likely receive a lot critism, but I will let it stand for now.) Other countries such as Peru, Columbia, Venezeula, and the northern part of Brazil are presently lower on the list of world power and appear to be renown for their drug trade and a little oil.

However, I have always thought that these northern South American countries have vast unexplored and un-advertised gold deposits. Afterall, where did those Inca's get all that gold? I am convinced that there is more in those jungles besides trees. And I am also convinced that if anyone already knows about this, they haven't published it. I believe there are gold deposits of such magnitude (and oil beyond belief), that should they be explored and mined, they would surpass the gold production of the present world powers. Vast enough that should gold ever increase in price, to the extent that exploration in these jungles becomes lucrative, that the heretofore hidden gold "reserves" would cause these South American countries to become the dominate power countries.

I don't think the present powers that be would be too receptive of that shift in powers. They presently control through fiat money (and oil) and I believe will endeavor to maintain that control. And, as a safeguard, they must not let gold become the world's store of value.

Anyway, just my thoughts.

a nation of one

(09/07/2003; 20:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108291)

To Melting Pot

"Money is a symbol system for exchanging real things by proxy."

It is that, but that's not all it is. For it can also be used for exchanging unreal things. Also, it can be used for exchanging itself, which, technically, is not a proxy transaction.

Great Albino Bat

(09/07/2003; 20:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108292)

Ten bears: about Alexander Del Mar

I am glad you mentioned Alexander Del Mar, who was publishing his books just about 100 years ago.

His books are quite interesting; he started out as a mining engineer, then became interested in the history of gold and silver mining. From there, he went on to a study of the history of money. In studying the history of money, he came across some inexplicable anomalies in the dates of coins, which did not agree with official historical dates for certain events.

From this, he went on to conclude that Augustus Caesar ordered his officials to manipulate the data of Roman History, bringing forward some 83 years (as I recall) the date of foundation of Rome. To do this, the officials changed the history of the Olympic Games, saying that they had been celebrated every four years, instead of very five, as was the fact.

Augustus' interest in modifying Roman dates, was in order to deify himself, for which purpose, it was necessary to be born on the auspicious date, as established by traditions going back to India. All very interesting and complicated.

Then, also, some centuries after the birth of Christ, some priests in Constantinople also fiddled with the calendar, and shaved off (or was it added?) 15 years, thus bringing the difference between our dates and the real date of the foundation of Rome, to 68 years. The reason the priests did this, was to separate the date of Augustus' Apotheosis, from the birth of Christ. The two dates coincided, apparently, and this was not desireable.

Anyway, I often reflect on Del Mar as a very poor economist, because he was extremely anti-gold and anti-silver. He claimed a paper system, run by the government, had to be the best system. I often think that were he able to see where paper leads, he would turn over in his grave. Big, big error on his part!

He was a conceited man, no amount of reasoning would have brought him around. There are people like that.

The GAB

Ulysses

(09/07/2003; 21:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108293)

Gold and currencies

If gold is so necessary to a currencies worth, how can Canada's be worth anything when they have no gold in their CB's vault?

Cometose

(09/07/2003; 21:34:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108294)

Gonlyold Re: Power behind GOLD

I believe that what you are referring to .....was aptly addressed by BELGIAN yesterday.....

He commented that the U S DOllar's strength was now derived by its attachment to something of value OIL.......the dollar's the reserve currency of the world and must be utilized to purchase OIL by every country on the GLOBE....

Funny how there's a sea of oil under the surface of two countries named in the axis of evil......IRAQ and IRAN ...
and Iraq has been labeled TERRORIST ....and perhaps she is .. HOWEVER the manner and method by which the Banking establishement connected to the Federal Reserve has and is controlling much of the WORLDS Global economy may be weakening with the percieved weakness of the Dollar....
if this does not reverse itself....THE STATUS QUO may be threatened enough to do something stupid....to maintain thier base of operations........WORLD WAR THREE anyone?...
THings have changed so fast in the past two years , it's scary ; so fast in fact that the dumb sheeple who just believe what the talking heads say at face value on current affairs ..just don't have a chance to keep up and check the congress on following blindly whatever policy the administration wants to push .......if you don't think that there are more suprises right around the corner , I'm afraid you may be in for a shock....

Black Blade

(09/07/2003; 21:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108295)

Confusion Over Rising Precious Metals Prices and the Comex

I have been rather busy lately and am trying to catch up on all the interesting discussion here on the forum while I have a bit of free time. What I have found most interesting is how so many gold analysts have got the whole reasoning behind the rising gold price all-wrong. Most seem to think that because of the huge open interest that the price of gold must pull back. Some suggest that the price will collapse dramatically as Funds and speculators bail out en masse to take profits. Yet they simply ignore the fact that the "competitive currency devaluation" aka "Currency War" has diminished the value of all major currencies. Where gold and silver are not easily manipulated in the sense that some government can magically "print gold".

The US dollar is in a state of collapse as the Fed attempts to reinflate at a furious pace without any success. The problem of course is that every other country is essentially doing the same. Quite strange that everyone wants a weak currency. Compare that to gold and silver. How in the world do you make weak gold and silver? In this environment it is easy to see how precious metals are holding up so well against a world flooded with paper (or digital) currency. Precious metals are produced with blood, sweat, and even risk of life and limb.

For the US dollar there is no way it can gain in value anymore. We have passed the point of no return. The national debt has soared beyond $44 trillion (official and "off the books"). The US budget deficit reaches new records second by second. Note that there never was a budget surplus even as the Clinton-Rubin admirers touted the lie of a "budget surplus" in recent years. Actually the last time there was a budget surplus was during the Eisenhower administration. The current account and trade imbalances are so great that there is simply no possible way to recover out of this mess. The only door left open to the Fed is to inflate like there's no tomorrow in an effort to stimulate the economy. At some point inflation (even bogus "official" inflation as defined by the morons working for the BLS) will become all too evident. In the end all that will result will be high inflation in a no or slow growth economy � that is "stagflation" or worse.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary John Snow crawled on his hands and knees before the Japanese and Chinese this last week begging for some relief. They simply told him to "beat his feet" back home. Nothing was accomplished by his groveling of course as they hold all the cards. In short his pathetic performance was nothing short of an embarrassment for the United States. Mr. Snow's mission was an utter failure. The world is watching and what they see is what the Asians call a very desperate maneuver by a "Paper Tiger".

Open interest is not all that important anymore. With gold priced in US dollars it is no wonder that the "smart money" has turned away from currency and toward hard assets like precious metals that have intrinsic value. It should come as no surprise that high net worth individuals including George Soros, Warren Buffett, and Bill Gates are investing in precious metals. When the dollar becomes less desirable gold becomes more valuable even when it is priced higher in dollar terms. So when these alleged gold analysts focus on the size of the Comex contracts the miss the big picture entirely. That's not to say that the Comex managers (and the Tocom as well) will once again change the rules to cheat investors as they have in the past. These are men without honor and will do what they can to cheat the investor. In the end any pull back in the price of gold and silver (and we can include platinum as well) should be considered a gift � a bargain subsidized to our benefit as buyers.

- Black Blade

Ten Bears

(09/07/2003; 21:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108296)

GAB

GAB, I enjoy reading your posts and thanks for the Del Mar Information.

I had not the opportunity to know Del Mar, therefore I cannot comment on his stubbornness or personal qualities. However the Del Mar which I have read provides a very thoroughly reviewed history of monetary systems. Recall one chapter in an 1896 publication with a chapter on "The Sacred Character of Gold". My memory of Del Mar is his opposition to the privately owned central banks and their control over governments. Perhaps best summed up by a quote from "The Science of Money" (1896). "Two centuries ago the money lending class was comparatively poor and humble� today, though numerically a limited class, they probably own more than half the garnered wealth of the civilized world; they drag the entire community by the heels, and their retainers fill every department of government, every avenue of profit, and every source of influence". I think, perhaps we have derived different messages from Del Mars� writing

mikal

(09/07/2003; 21:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108297)

@Usul

Re: "How can Canada's (currency) be worth anything when they hav no gold left in their vault." Maybe they're counting on deep storage type gold- in their case, below ground or the taxes to be imposed on it's withdrawal: capital gains taxes, windfall profits taxes and mining rights and permit fees?
I believe that as time passes, their currency will continue to appreciate against the dollar as it is doing now, or be revalued at par or at least well above it's current undervaluation, in a single stroke.
Canada's natural assets including unmined metals & minerals, water, lumber, farm commodities and natural resources can be developed, confiscated, traded, or used as collateral.
They have a good sovereign debt rating, a considered high standard of living and highly motivated workforce.
Among others, large populations of English, Italian, French, Scottish, Chinese, and Irish heritage help facilitate tourism, trade, cultural exchange and investment.

steady

(09/07/2003; 22:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108298)

honest money!

our mission cant be plainer our goal may take the toll on denail and delusion but your son will thank us. for what good is a man is his word isnt? honor , dignity, respect simple as that. a new fom of chivalry has awoke, the old form will be broke . the one it morphed into where up was down wrong was right,rule by might supperceed commonsense now alot of people are behind a fence.
here we make a stand one post at a time one thought one trasmission of an idea not an ideal but reality. digitally electonically u see one for you one for me this reality one in which markets will truely be free not just an illusion cooked up in a back room and brought forth for the masses to see. like perfomers at a circus. no there is more dignity here for us than that show, no cant u see the fans are alleady refusing to go. they peer dumbfounded,awestruck by the magnitude of the unknown complicity of the entire nation beyond belife astounded by the pounding there portfolio did take. so here we come united as one in common goal to share information to be analysed, synthasized, comprehended, and redesinimated for all to understand.come give us a hand, come avoid the economic geopolicital military toll help us reach our goal!

silver and gold
honest money for
honest people!

oh yea the consumer products keep endorsing gold.
today i saw a new toothpoaste aqua silver
a new golden cream, braun has a new golden coffe filter and a gold battery was at the checkout stand as well as a new golden cereal. that was alot of new golden items in the store today.

mikal

(09/07/2003; 22:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108299)

@Ulysses, Usul

My apologies! Last post was for Ulysses.

a nation of one

(09/07/2003; 22:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108300)

To Black Blade

Welcome back, Black Blade. You have been sorely missed.

steady

(09/07/2003; 22:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108301)

stuff

first of all for those of you who deal in cash you shold start to notice newer bills circulating as the fed dumps money into the system. these new dollars which are just begining to circulate will be noticed by those who deal in cash. pay attention and you will notice the ratio of new bills u recieve in change is increasing. watch it take place, we notice the trend on paper and theoretically but whatch it happen personally.

can we agree that there are hamonics and that another word for harmonics is harmony. the earth has its own harmonics as do people.
ever feel uneasy while driving in a city?missing this traffic light (red light stop) wondering fretting are we/am i going to make this light? maybe its not the surrondings. maybe , rather unbeknowst to you and many others its the trafficlights. see these artifical stopages of man in his travels upsets alot of peoples time and space. ( recall how u use time and space to view a chart as it goes thru well time and space) now we can also agree that people in all aspet of life get into a grooove a harmonic wave osscilating perfectly in relation to there own speed and time relative to the earth. but now here comes them dam pesky traffic lights delaying your time
of being at one place by 30 seconds (short light) to two min (long light) multiplied by how many lights u make or miss{rember to chill at lights and get back into the groove u need to be sometimes u have to force the groove to stay with you rather than u staying with the groove two entirly different ways of concentrating but both yielding the same affect upon your being!!!!this artifical disruption causes the subconscious uneasyness, whic manifests itself into consciusness in a variety of ways most exspressed unilateraly by the driver for now the flow has been lost, the groove ungrooved, one becomes like a stock price movement at the flux, no mans land. so this pentup digitalized (traffic lights controlled by automatic trip system) artifical intervention into the free flowing of individuals thru time and space in our get this ( personal digitized,trakable, traceable mobile unit of deficit our automobile,) and yes i understand john lock and mans social contract but it doesnt say that yileding to that social contract --agreeing to follow societys custom of stoping at red and going on green---- wont have an effect upon ones affect or your well being, disposition, and at times fate . as the effect is uneasyness for not being abel to find your groove , maybe thats one reason to explain all the crazy behavior so called normal individuals exhibit when they get behind the wheele
so how does one maintain an equilbrium when ones own inner self is constatly being put in a new time and space its hard to build the right type of personal graph to many gaps, peaks , vally, head fakes bullish/bearish penants and the likes. for the graph to build upon itself before it tumbles like a deck of cards with no sound base. and your id, ego, and super ego all take a hit as well. Forcing u to rethink your purpose, yor goals, your committments, your hopes, desirs, and dreams.
So some how i hope you can manage all the distractors and ignore the noise to keep your perfect three part harmony, in perfect time and pace with the real worlds golden .harmonics

this is almost an anology a simili for the gold market the digital intervention by certain groups has caused diseqelibrium in the finacial markets and peoples behavior is erratic due to it as no one is able to sort the chaff from the wheat as the military, conglomerate corporated dominated media pull out no stops to assit in this complicit act. and people look for direction, but the direction givers speak with forked tounge, so on and so forth ... i thinku get the drift

Waverider

(09/07/2003; 22:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108302)

Black Blade

Yahooo...welcome back! Hope all is going well for you in the field and maaaayyybeee....hopefully....we'll get the DMR this week? I echo ANOO - you've been sorely missed! All the best,
Waverider

Great Albino Bat

(09/07/2003; 23:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108303)

Ten bears: thanks for the Del Mar quote!

Thanks for mentioning Del Mar's "Science of Money". That's one of his books I have not read.

If I said he was a poor economist, it was because I got that clear impression from his words in another of his works, where he bad-mouthed gold and stated his opinion that money should rather be, what the State declares is money. Which is of course, what the world has today. "Fiat".

I'll examine the books I have and confirm this, in a future post. Or admit my mistake.

By the way, Del Mar aspired to be Secretary of the Treasury but was passed over.

The GAB

Caradoc

(09/08/2003; 01:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108304)

Merrill Lynch: "Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit"

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085Snippet:
Weakness in the US Treasury market could make Asian investors "less willing" buyers of debt securities, said Marcel Kasumovich, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy at Merrill Lynch.

Seems I heard about this here a long time before anybody heard it from Merrill Lynch...

Caradoc

PS: here's link again in case it's truncated above:
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085

DummyANI

(09/08/2003; 01:54:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108305)

Steelworks explosion may affect automakers

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htmsnip:
Steelworks explosion may affect automakers
Yomiuri Shimbun
The suspension of all operations at Nippon Steel Corp.'s Nagoya steelworks in Tokai, Aichi Prefecture, following a gas tank explosion Wednesday, could be a big blow to the motor industry, which depends on high-quality steel plates produced at the facility.
The steelworks produced about 5.58 million tons of crude steel last fiscal year, most of which went to car companies such as Toyota Motor Corp.
JFE Steel Corp. may soon temporarily take over from Nippon Steel in supplying these companies with steel plates. However, if the foundry ceases production for a week or more, analysts fear production at all domestic car companies will stagnate, which would affect the entire national economy.
The tank that exploded stored coke gas, which is created when coke is made from coal. If this tank cannot be used, it will be difficult to produce steel in furnaces.
To reduce costs, the steelworks had kept its inventory of steel plates as small as possible. Therefore, its current store of plates can supply Nippon Steel's clients for between a few days and a week.
Analysts said the situation has put car manufacturers in a serious dilemma, and they are indicating they may emulate Toyota's just-in-time system, in which the company only manufactures enough parts to meet its immediate needs.
Among car manufacturers that receive steel plates from the steelworks, Honda Motor Co.'s Suzuka plant in Mie Prefecture said it has enough supplies to last for nine more days, while officials at Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. plants said they only had enough inventory for a few more days of production.
Therefore, if operations at the steelworks remain suspended for a week or more, manufacturers' inventories may bottom out.
Car manufacturers are looking into measures they can take to prevent this from happening. Mitsubishi Motors said it is considering increasing its orders of steel plates from JFE Steel and Kobe Steel Ltd. Toyota said it has formed a task force to look into ways to procure steel plates from other sources.
JFE Steel indicated it was ready to provide emergency steel plates to the automakers. One JFE official said, "If we receive a request from Nippon Steel to do this, we'd like to do our best to supply the need."
However, as the demand for domestic steel has been increasing in China and among domestic appliance manufacturers, the nation's steel manufacturers are producing at full capacity, making it difficult for them to take on any new orders. Therefore, analysts said, it is hard to tell whether car manufacturers will be able to procure a large supply of steel plates from companies other than Nippon Steel.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry in July asked the Japan Iron and Steel Federation to thoroughly supervise the safety of their plants after 15 work-related deaths occurred at steelworks nationwide since the beginning of this year.
Analysts said that if officials were to use the Nagoya steelworks explosion to argue that safety measures at steelworks were dubious, it may take a long time for the facility to resume operations.
D-ANI: Japanese works have been melting down underwater.

TownCrier

(09/08/2003; 02:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108306)

Is there no more at stake than investors padding their purses in the event?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000173&sid=auecMAlQPiAg&refer=market_insightHEADLINE: Swedish Bond Investors May Miss Out on Euro Adoption Rally

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Many Swedish investors may miss out on a bond and krona rally next Monday should a late surge in support for the euro put Sweden a step further down the road to becoming the 13th member of Europe's currency union.

``The polls are tightening up and maybe it's happening a little too late for most investors,'' said Olof Carlsson, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $630 million in bonds at Danske Capital in Stockholm, a unit of Danske Bank A/S, Scandinavia's second-largest lender.

Six separate polls last week suggest a surge in support for the common currency, with the opponents' lead narrowing to as low as 5 percentage points from an average of 13 percentage points the week before.

``This is one these one-time events that are very hard to take a position on,'' said Erik Feldt, head of bonds at Nordea Investment Management in Stockholm, who manages the equivalent of $11 billion. ``You almost have to wait for the result.''

-------(article at url)------

If so, you wouldn't know it from Bloomberg.

R.

contrarian

(09/08/2003; 02:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108307)

Confusion Over Rising Precious Metals Prices and the Comex

Black Blade, thank you for your excellent post about whats really going on today with the the price of gold--it absolutely makes clear what the situation is.

It's always refreshing to read your intelligent, insightful posts--that present something of value to the reader--in contrast to some of the rambling, lengthy, incoherent postings I've noticed appearing on this forum recently that don't offer anything of value other than a sense of self-satisfaction to the writer.

The writers of these postings are fooling themselves if they think that visitors to the forum are reading these postings. For example, I read one sentence of these messages, and I move on to another message, because these postings are not worth my valuable time to read. All these messages do is clog up the page and make me hit the Scroll Down button more often.

This forum is a valuable and excellent resource, and you're a great contributor. As you would agree, we all need to maintain the quality of this excellent forum. There's plenty of other places to go to for confusion and ignorance in these trying times.

Operative

(09/08/2003; 03:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108308)

India Looks At Gold Reserves

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=41621Snip:

"
Mumbai, Sept 7: Even as the country's foreign exchange (forex) reserves are swelling, the share of gold in this basket has slipped below five per cent in 2003, from around 40 per cent in 1992. It was 5.5 per cent in 2002 down from 9.3 per cent in 1999, and 10.8 per cent in 1998.
The country's gold reserves, in terms of quantity, have remained static at around 360 tonne. At current rates, it is valued at $3,628 million.
As per latest available figures, the country's Forex reserves have swelled to $86.225 billion � a huge improvement from 1990-91 when the country's reserves were precariously low at around Rs 2,600.
It may be recalled that in July 1991 the country had to sell some 22 tonne of gold in addition to pledging some 46 tonne of gold outside India to salvage India's precarious position as a prospective defaulter in the international markets. Over the years, the Forex reserves have been rising, more so, over the past couple of years, but the share of gold in this has slipped down to 5.5 per cent even when the quantum of gold has remained static.
Sanjeev Agarwal, managing director-Indian subcontinent, World Gold Council (WGC), "Given the recent volatility in some major currencies and concerns over a possible further depreciation of the US dollar, an increase in the gold holdings will lend greater stability to our foreign exchange reserves."

spotlight

(09/08/2003; 03:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108309)

Contrarian post

You said:

Some of the rambling, lengthy, incoherent postings I've noticed appearing on this forum recently don't offer anything of value other than a sense of self-satisfaction to the writer.

The writers of these postings are fooling themselves if they think that visitors to the forum are reading these postings. For example, I read one sentence of these messages, and I move on to another message, because these postings are not worth my valuable time to read. All these messages do is clog up the page and make me hit the Scroll Down button more often.

I wish to be the first to stand with you on this. And I invite all other posters that agree, to second the motion to please ask posters to stay on topic and quit using this site as a bulletin board.

Operative

(09/08/2003; 03:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108310)

The Growing Case For Gold

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1427185-6094-0,00.htmlSnip:
"THE spot gold price neared highs not seen since February last week and analysts are predicting that the bullion price will hold on to most of the ground gained in the past few weeks as attitudes towards gold as an investment change.
Historically the gold price and the value of the dollar have worked against each other. When the dollar rises gold falls and vice versa.
But Ross Norman of thebullion.com, a web-based research company specialising in precious metals, said that in the past month the gold price had been bucking this trend.
"Gold has been ignoring the strengthening of the dollar and when it weakens (the dollar), it grasps it and runs up. There is still a lot of pent-up interest," said Norman. "It has been an anomalous month with the gold and dollar price running in the same direction".
He maintains that the gold market is showing a new discipline linked to the consolidation that has taken place in the industry over the past few years .
"Markets tend to move on expectation and there is an expectation that there will be greater supply side discipline in the more consolidated gold market," said Norman.
He said that in the past, goldprice rallies had often been killed by companies selling forward into the market, locking in at higher gold prices.
This development is positive for the gold market in the longer term and Norman says new investors are coming into the market, with gold adding diversity to their asset portfolios. "

Operative

(09/08/2003; 04:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108311)

Ponderings Over That First Cup of Coffee

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAPX7R8CKD.htmlThe headline to linked article reads: "Israel's Sharon Heads to India to Drum Up Trade and Bolster Defense Ties"

Pakistan and India have been at loggerheads with each other for some time. Some in the intelligence community suspect Bin Laden has been given refuge in Pakistan by the rather large radical muslims in that area. Now it appears Israel and India are cooperating on at least some weapons platforms that will furthur the rift between Pakistan and India. As tensions rise in the region, demand for gold should do well in that part of the world.

Operative

(09/08/2003; 04:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108312)

A Web Page For "Interesting Times"

http://www.cbsnews.com/digitaldan/disaster/disasters.shtmlA link that might prove useful for future events.

Belgian

(09/08/2003; 06:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108313)

@silvercollector

Your question on :...US wants POO higher...How does higher priced oil keeps the dollar system working...?

There is a floating "optimum" price for oil that suits the broadiest of oil-interests for producers, consumers AND the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Repeat : "optimum" floating price !

Dollar-reserves continiously increase due to the dollar-system. Those dollar-reserves must represent something tangible of fundamental value. One can buy oil and gold with it. The dollar's optimum value is then related to the optimum dollarprice of oil and gold. Very cheap oil AND gold qualify the dollar as very strong in purchasing power.

Then comes the question of "who" is setting the price of oil and gold and consequently putting a value on the dollar (reserve)?

Is the US still able to dominate the POO or does the printer of the dollar (controller of the dollar-system) gives priority to the exchange rate of the dollar ?
Yep, this is a complex thing.

At times when so much dollars need to be brought into the globe's dollar-system, a high/higher POO might be seen as a benevolent event to canalise all those dollars that are stashed up, everywhere. Since it is not the US' 20 million barrils of oil-imports that are the main reason for the twin deficits...a high/higher POO is not that very impacting, for the time being.

Add to the facts that the Iraqi occupation implicites that the world's second largest oil-reserves are coming under your (US) control...a sustained high POO adds to the collateral value. But note the following funny co-incidence : In 1971 POG=41$ and POO=3$ >>> both prices quote a x10 at today's prices (approx.) !?

As long as POG and POO remain within optimum ranges, the dollar-system keeps operating. Once we see one or both of these prices getting out of wack, we know that the dollar-system is defaulting.

Extreme low prices for Gold and/or Oil is provoking drastic measures. WAG or OPEC oil-flow cuts...There is/are floating optimum prices needed to support the existing dollar-system.

The Stranger

(09/08/2003; 06:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108314)

From the Current Issue of BARRON'S

http://www.barrons.com/Race to the Bottom

He Loves Gold � Gobs and Gobs of It
EDITED BY ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL

NEVER MIND THAT GOLD has risen nearly 20%, to $371 an ounce, in the past year.

As Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and President Bush no doubt discussed the economy over lunch last Tuesday, subscribers to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters were digesting his recent call to increase their asset allocation for gold and gold shares from 5%-10% to "at least one-third" of their liquid assets.

Although the publisher and editor of the market newsletter has been singing the praises of the yellow metal since the beginning of the year, his late August recommendation was noteworthy, in light of gold's already comfortable rise, and for the size of the allocation he suggested.

Investors should "sell whatever they have to" to buy gold and gold stocks, says Russell, although he didn't specify which stocks he liked in a recent interview. The analyst and onetime writer of technical articles for Barron's, who called the bottom of the '74 bear market, explains that "the U.S. is inflating its head off and depreciating the dollar's head off."

Meanwhile, "almost every Asian country wants a lower currency," and has been buying dollars to keep their currencies down and make their products more competitive. "Most of the world is now inflating," Russell says.

The U.S. is the world's biggest debtor, and we "can't afford all these military actions all over the world." Russell notes that the U.S. has a current-account balance of half a trillion dollars, and a budget deficit that's pushing half a trillion. "Here's a nation that's moving toward technical bankruptcy, issuing a currency that will be increasingly in question," Russell says. "If we were a corporation, we'd be bankrupt."

All of those factors, he says, argue for the price of gold to strengthen. And cutting spending significantly is the only way to try to mitigate the excesses the Fed is building into the economy with its easy-money policy, he adds. But that can't be done now "without great pain."

So, how high is gold going? "The question is, how far down is the dollar going?" Russell says.

Melting Pot

(09/08/2003; 07:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108315)

What's the Deal with Oil Prices?

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1322SNIPS:

According to Reuters, US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has ordered the energy department to "investigate" the spike in gas prices. "The nature of this (price) fluctuation struck me as being unusually large as well and in need of greater explanation," Abraham told a Congressional committee.

"It is imperative that this investigation determine both the underlying causes for these price increases, and whether or not industry participants are gouging consumers," Lieberman said in a letter to Abraham.

These reasons certainly do not ring with politicians in the way that words like "greed" and "gouging do," nor are U.S. politicians willing to admit that for the last four decades, they have openly made oil companies Public Enemy Number One�and that such attacks have their deleterious effects.

No, all they can do is to repeat the same tired arguments of the past�and the same lies. These reasons certainly do not ring with politicians in the way that words like "greed" and "gouging do," nor are U.S. politicians willing to admit that for the last four decades, they have openly made oil companies Public Enemy Number One�and that such attacks have their deleterious effects.

No, all they can do is to repeat the same tired arguments of the past�and the same lies. Politicians and bureaucrats created the oil crises of the 1970s, and it looks as though these folks in the Class of 2003 are trying to outdo their forbears of 30 years ago. Of course, successes of the political classes are gained only at the expense of everyone else. Would be that oil company executives were permitted to investigate Congress and the Energy Department. They would find more than a few smoking guns.

EOS

It never fails to amaze me how the politicians & bureaucrats keep the people looking in the wrong direction. Investigate the "oil companies for price gouging," it's the Federal Reserve and Congress engaged in price gouging to maintain dollar WRC status and seignorage privledge! If the sheople only understood the dollar/oil/gold linkage there would be serious changes in District of Criminals!

@Belgian

Looks like a LT H&S chart formation is forming in crude oil. If this really is H&S forming, and I believe it is, crude should rise minimum of $80 usd bbl with projection to $120+ usd high.

$120 bbl X 10 = $1200 gold price. Food for thought!

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/CotCLlt.gif

$120 bbl will get the sheople stirring and demanding real answers. Oh Lucy, the day of reckoning is approaching!

(09/08/2003; 09:49:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108316)

Istanbul Gold Exchange Deputy urges Turkish CB to sell 100 tons of gold before prices fall

Before flying to Dubai to attend IMF-World Bank meeting where renewal of Washington Agreement will be discussed, the deputy talked to a Turkish daily. He predicted that gold price would fall to $300, citing the World Bank Report. Germany is selling gold to improve the budget, Turkey should do the same he urged before the prices fell. He cautioned that Turkish gold imports have surged in the current year and a sudden drop of prices would decrease the value of existing inventories.
link in Turkish: http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2003/09/08/ekonomi/aeko.html

The Hoople

(09/08/2003; 10:00:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108317)

Bush wants Treasury to take control of Fannie, Freddie, why now?

OK, two of the largest derivative players on the planet seem to be running amuck and Bush immediately offers giving the Treasury control over Fannie and Freddie instead of HUD. Could it be the need for the ubiquitous ESF intervention? Now that will be a marriage made in hell, a derivative shop of horrors and a surreptitious fund that has the full backing of the printing press and Fed. Need yet another reason why a rising pog is a terrifying thought to some people? Need another reason why not owning gold is a terrifying thought to me?

admin

(09/08/2003; 10:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108318)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New QuickNotes.

New Stein.

"There's an implicit
warning somehow lost amidst the U.S.
press reports on Mr. Snow 's Asian
tour but surfaced almost casually by
FT in that same front page story: If
those Asian countries were forced to revalue their currencies, they would have no need to buy US
Treasuries......And then there's one other small problem, more than $1 trillion of the U.S. stock
market capitalization, according to FT, depends upon cheap Chinese imports alone.............. The
U.S., in other words, is stuck between a rock and a hard spot...................By the way that
increase in debt held by those countries (from $512 billion to $696 billion) amounts to a 36%
increase annualized."

Cavan Man

(09/08/2003; 10:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108319)

Istanbul (Constantinople) AU Exchg.

Lackeys and sychophants

Henri

(09/08/2003; 10:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108320)

Towncrier msg 108025 ref Elwood 24910 of 2/10/00

I am humbled and honored at having been included in the bundled "Special Monetary Discussion" which you linked in your msg 108025. Although my input is small and as near as I can determine yet unresolved among the likes of Aristotle, ORO and host of others.

Elwood had responded to my supposition that in the appropriation/purchase/acquisition of mortgage backed securities local banks are off the hook and able to initiate new loans up to their fractional reserve limit. In the process of creation/bundling into a security that is sold to fannie/freddie, are the banks off the hook? Are they then free to generate more loans using deposits as collateral for fractional reserve lending thereby creating more debt/money??

Elwood says :
"...The government sponsored enterprises you reference are not engaging in money-creation at all. They are merely borrowing and lending that which is created by the banking system. I think there's a guy named Noland who writes on the Prudent Bear site that propounds this idea that the GSE's create money. I think he's wrong. ..."

Well which is it? Inquiring minds want to know if it is indeed a moral hazard to allow govt acquisition of bank bundled MBS's for sale on the international debt market allowing the govt to indirectly subsidize the expansion of credit/mortgage debt; or, is it merely a borrowing and lending of bank created debt that the local bank is still on the hook to make good on.

Is a bank who bundled and transferred the securities to govt still therefore restrained in the amount of new debt they can now create having bundled out the good mixed with bad and eliminating their risk altogether, or are they free to cavort again and find more victims willing to indenture themselves/their property (except gold)to the govt?

Yes, yes, I'm certain their are all kinds of underwritten complications in all of this business all designed to eliminate time from the equation. To obfuscate who IS on the hook and more importantly WHEN.

Wouldn't this be a rather poor band aid approach to the problem of the inevitable inflationary expansion of a fiat regime...to just make time conveniently disappear for all intents and purposes? Keeping the band-aid on to avoid terminal hemmorage would then be the task at hand. I'm certain that judiciously applied torniquets would also be employed while changing the dressing to prevent infection/gangreen and losing whole limbs from the system.

What could this torniquet be...what manifest form is it. Money supply 1,2 or 3? Repo's? How many different types? interest rate settings (ludicrous since is is ultimately the market that decides interest rates in that it is the price paid plus risk premium/discount to be the gauge)?

Perhaps we can tell how close we are to the end by just monitoring and noting the number and speed with which the tourniquets are applied.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/08/2003; 10:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108321)

Bullion to you at one percent (<$4) over our cost, free shipping on 25 ounces

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Belgian

(09/08/2003; 10:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108322)

@ Melting Pot > POO

The 30 yrs $-price-chart of oil is a complete anomaly and TA/TI on this is unreliable ! Oil (and Gold) are "political" stuff, remember ! But, nevertheless the long term chart-pattern is strongly suggesting the oilprices will go higher, indeed. Not surprising, since there is a general consensus that the dollar will be "managed" down to a level of 1,25 � around Q1-'04 (???).

That would bring POO around the 35$ zone. And that is indeed a very, VERY critical area. Low Average POG to POO = 13
35$ (POO) x 13 = 455$ (POG)

It seems as if the whole financial machine is maneuvering as to turn the valuation-clock 10 years back ? As to erase the manias of this last decade. The only thing that keeps growing, not linear but exponentialy, is DEBT !

Renewed efforts will be made to bring IRs down again or at least freeze them at the absolute freezing point (-276�C)

Needless to repeat that we live in a "politicaly" steered economy AND finance for as long as we (all dollar reserve holders) "have" or "want" to agree on supporting the dollar-reserve.

The financial brotherhood has now the enormous task of adjusting POG to the lower dollar "WITHOUT" provoking massive and disturbing Gold Accumulation by dollar-infidels !!!
Could this be another reason for all the "official" negative Gold-Talk (Eichel-World Bank-IMF-more to come...)?

So what ! Whilst the dollar gets exhausted steadily, Gold Holders relax, watch and smile.

If we see a controlled decline of the dollar exchange rate, together with IRs remaining low...we have clear evidence again of the power of the political finance. A wonderful pr�lude for the ultimate collapse.

TownCrier

(09/08/2003; 10:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108323)

Physical demand -- that time of year

WGC today reports the following on gold demand:

"The professional market continues to focus on political uncertainties, but "grass roots" buying is also picking up in India as the monsoon draws to a close and the Festival season approaches. Rural buying in India has improved noticeably over the past week, while urban interest is also developing."

Camel

(09/08/2003; 11:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108324)

Geo - political manipulation of oil prices

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=7669.topic
Snip:

This much is clear and undisputable. Less clear is what was done with the information. Soon after assuming office in 1981, the Reagan Administration abandoned the established policy of pursuing d�tente with the Soviet Union and instead instituted a massive arms buildup; it also fomented proxy wars in areas of Soviet influence, while denying the Soviets desperately needed oil equipment and technology. Then, in the mid-1980s, Washington persuaded Saudi Arabia to flood the world market with cheap oil. Throughout the last decade of its existence, the USSR pumped and sold its oil at the maximum possible rate in order to earn foreign exchange income with which to keep up in the arms race and prosecute its war in Afghanistan. Yet with markets awash with cheap Saudi oil, the Soviets were earning less even as they pumped more. Two years after their oil production peaked, the economy of the USSR crumbled and its government

Melting Pot

(09/08/2003; 11:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108325)

The biggest story of the year in England, and a huge story everywhere else in the world except the USA.

http://www.takebackthemedia.com/meacher.htmlAmazing stuff here folks. TREASON is exactly what it appears Blair's former Minister accuses Bush of. READ this article - "The Chelshire Story" first, THEN read the commentary in The Guardian about the Meacher story, THEN read the article written by Meacher, THEN read the BBCNEWS report.

The Cheshire Story
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com/Politics/cheshire.htm

"Meacher sparks fury over claims on September 11 and Iraq war"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1036588,00.html

"This war on terrorism is bogus"

The 9/11 attacks gave the US an ideal pretext to use force to secure its global domination

Michael Meacher
Saturday September 6, 2003
The Guardian

We now know that a blueprint for the creation of a global Pax Americana was drawn up for Dick Cheney (now vice-president), Donald Rumsfeld (defence secretary), Paul Wolfowitz (Rumsfeld's deputy), Jeb Bush (George Bush's younger brother) and Lewis Libby (Cheney's chief of staff). The document, entitled Rebuilding America's Defences, was written in September 2000 by the neoconservative think tank, Project for the New American Century (PNAC).

The plan shows Bush's cabinet intended to take military control of the Gulf region whether or not Saddam Hussein was in power. It says "while the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1036685,00.html

"Ex-minister attacks US over war"

'Political myth'

"The global war on terrorism has all the hallmarks of a political myth propagated to pave the way for a wholly different agenda - the US goal of world hegemony, built around securing by force command over the oil supplies required to drive the whole project."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3085656.stm

"Former British minister: Iraq war due to US bid to control oil"

Meacher also claimed in an article published in Saturday's edition of the Guardian that the US war on terrorism is a smokescreen and that the US knew in advance about the September 11 attack on New York but, for strategic reasons, chose not to act on the warnings.

http://www.muslimwakeup.com/archives/000198.php

Ex-UK minister says
"US may have let Sept 11 attacks to happen"

"Was this inaction simply the result of key people disregarding, or being ignorant of, the evidence?" he wrote, referring to intelligence clues he said were ignored before the attacks. "Or could US air security operations have been deliberately stood down on September 11? If so, why, and on whose authority?" Meacher, who served as environment minister for six years before being dismissed when Blair reorganised his ministers in June, later told British Broadcasting Corp radio that he didn't believe the US government had planned the attacks.

http://www.thedailystar.net/2003/09/07/d30907130365.htm

Like a leaky faucet, the truth slowy drips out??? How will you protect yourself financially from these allegations? Such inflamatory political statements whether they be truth or merely machinations could ultimately affect the US economy, currency and global politics.

Protect yourself with gold, it's noones liability or obligation and can withstand the fires that burn in the geopolitical economic arena. JMO NIA

TownCrier

(09/08/2003; 11:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108326)

Sentiment, and product...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030908/markets_precious_comex_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - COMEX gold eased from 7-month highs early Monday in reaction to a report showing speculators committed 2.2 million additional ounces last week to an already giant gamble that the bullion bull market had further to run.

"They just keep strapping it on," said a trader.

...More and more investors now see gold as a portfolio diversifier amid lingering skepticism about economic recovery....

The market is starting to wonder when the new buying will dry up. The CFTC said late Friday in its Commitments of Traders report that the net noncommercial long position on the COMEX ballooned 22,620 (100 ounce) contracts to 122,847 contracts, the most lopsided bullish bet recorded, in the week to Sept 2.

--------(from url)-------

Someone sold me a rainbow once, back in my youth. I bought it. It was nice... while the sun briefly shone just exactly so.

Know what you are buying, and GET what you pay for. USAGOLD-Centennial will deliver the goods.

R.

specie-man

(09/08/2003; 12:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108327)

Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005

I started reading gold-related articles on the internet a few years ago. More recently, I joined this forum and have read the posts here with interest. I repeatedly read references here to "FOA". I finally decided that I had to figure out who/what "FOA" is/was. I stumbled across the "Gold Trail" link here and found the answer I was looking for. I read (or skimmed) most of the posts. Although I was tired and it was a lot to digest, I think I got the jist of it.

I've read many unfulfilled predictions about a future price explosion of gold.

So I've decided to write my own prediction/essay. It is not so much of a "price" prediction, but more of a "when" prediction.

Here it is. Comments, of course, are welcome.

Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the major buyers� intentions are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This predicted gold price increase would be enormous and would change the world. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly (on the paper market) in the last four years, but the rise has been gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, I believe that certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as I see it towards an explosion in the price of gold (as measured in US dollars):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

3.
Inflation starts taking hold in Japan and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. When the citizens of those countries start to complain how expensive everything is becomming (in their own currencies), then those governments will end their strong dollar practices. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

2.
The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself.

1.
Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, some oil-producing nations switch their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have a need to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.

Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant price inflation. When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear. A few months ago, the Nikkei stock average was around 9,200 - about the same as the Dow Jones average. Now the Nikkei is over 10,600 with the Dow falling behind at 9,500. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now exploding. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, I think it will end in a stalemate. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming within a year or two, I think.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected. I think we all know in the back of our minds WHAT the market is supposed to do.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. Lacking any unexpected triggers, I predict the countdown to finish no later than the Fall of 2005.

Gandalf the White

(09/08/2003; 13:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108328)

The PAPER gold story for today ! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3Z) --UPDATE for Monday 9/8/03
Open $378.7 HIGH $378.8 low $374.7 Last $376.4
Settlement $376.2 Change -$2.5 VOLUME = (only)5,856
YESTERDAY's Settlement price $378.7 and OPEN INTEREST 201,504
NOTE that the OI is now OVER 200K !
INTERESTING
GW

Cavan Man

(09/08/2003; 14:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108329)

specie-man

Excellent post sir and welcome!

industrialGold

(09/08/2003; 15:27:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108330)

specie man - great summary

Thanks for the concise summary.

Waverider

(09/08/2003; 15:46:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108331)

Oh Dear...more Tears.....

Another box of kleenix Operative....no DRM today...Black Blade must still be working in the field! ;o)

Chris Powell

(09/08/2003; 16:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108332)

Victory! Blanchard can proceed to trial against Barrick and Morgan

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1653Latest GATA dispatch.

DryWasher

(09/08/2003; 17:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108333)

The Tyranny of Paper Money

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst090803.htmFrom Ron Paul's current weekly column, linked above, and right on target as usual:

SNIP

In an article entitled "Gold and Economic Freedom," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that "The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market- triggering a fantastic speculative boom�The speculative imbalances had become overwhelming and unmanageable by the Fed� In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation." The irony is that Mr. Greenspan's words, written in 1966 to describe the era leading up to the Great Depression, could easily have been written in 2003 to describe the consequences of his own Fed policies during the 1990s.

END SNIP

Black Blade

(09/08/2003; 17:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108334)

Gold Defying Expectations!

I am happy to report that my project in the field is about finished (and extremely successful I might add!) and in a day or two I should be free to visit the forum a bit more often and even make some headway with the DMR.

Gold continues to defy the expectations of gold bears and has stumped so called experts. While they absolutely miss the big picture it is truly a case of "ignoring the elephant in the living room while stomping on ants".

The absolute failure of Treasury Secretary Snow's groveling in Asia before Japanese and Chinese monetary authorities has not even raised an eyebrow with these "experts". This is a defining event! America has lost a lot of prestige and is seen as a giant pinata to be beaten to a pulp by every industrialized nation on the planet. As a result the US dollar is pushed about in the continuing "competitive cureency devaluation" (aka "Currency War").

The smart money is "going for the gold" while history repeats itself once again. Open Interest? HA!!!

- Black Blade

Operative

(09/08/2003; 17:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108335)

@ Chris Powell

Thank You for the update on the continuing battle that is being waged on gold's behalf. If the judge's ruling indeed sticks (is not appealed) this opens the doors for what I hope will be a time of great interest to all gold fans as the secret books and testimoney under oath are laid out for the public to view. I am sure the defendants will try everything path available to delay the setting of a trial date and would not be surprised if they offer Barrick a blank check to settle out of court. I hope Barrick presses forward and brings to light seriousness of the charges laid against the defendents. It is time to crack open the door to that dimly lit room where a few powerfull men carry on thier secret attacks on the rest of humanity. Bravehearts on the offense now, lead the way!

21mabry

(09/08/2003; 18:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108336)

Ricardo

In 1816 David Ricardo wrote a report on the high price of bullion.In it he states that high price does not prove scarcity.He states that he could get any amount of bullion he wanted if he had funds to pay for it.In the report Ricardo states the high price of bullion is the result of an excessive quanity of circulating medium.The high price of gold in 1816 was the result of monetary inflation.There is nothing new under the sun it seems.21

Cavan Man

(09/08/2003; 19:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108337)

"We have governing responsibility."--WOW!

Behold the march of folly.Europe balks at Iraq bailout

The US-backed UN resolution seeking more troops faces a wall of resistance from Europe.

By Peter Ford | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

PARIS � As France and the United States dig in on opposite sides of the central question hanging over Iraq's future - who should control the country - Washington stands almost no chance of winning broad European support for its new UN Security Council resolution, analysts and officials here say.
America's suggestion that UN members should send troops to Iraq and that the world body could do more there, clearly offers outsiders only a supporting role. "The lead role has to be played by the United States," US Secretary of State Colin Powell insisted on NBC Sunday. "We have governing responsibility."

CM comment: Or, put Another way: "Since we've created this Frankenstein, this creature of American foreign policy over many years at great taxpayer expense and'since we were here first, we're grabbing all the low hanging fruit." (SADLY,IT'S ALL GOOD FOR GOLD.)

Dollar Bill

(09/08/2003; 19:25:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108338)

*>*............+

Two guys comment, I wonder how far off they are.
"... If the Asians do not buy Treasuries, the Fed can print all the money necessary to buy them. This would weaken the Dollar and make Asian goods less competitive. If the Dollar continued to weaken, factories would actually have to move from Asia back to the U.S.
The dilemma for Asia is that unless they are willing to support our Dollar, they will have to create internal demand for their own goods.
There is no dilemma for the U.S. We can either get lots of cheap goods from Asia in exchange for paper, or we can build back our manufacturing capacity and put people back to work. We win either way, basically. Of course, if we have to go back to manufacturing, or standard of living will decline, but that is the price you pay for making things instead of printing paper."

"...China needs us MUCH more than we need them. IF we slammed the door in their face tomorrow, the trade surplus would just shift to somewhere else: Mexico, Korea, etc. Those with the newfound suplus would be the new buyers of all of uncle sam's paper. God forbid, we might even make more stuff ourselves.
China on the other hand, would be screwed to the wall, with lots of manufacturing capacity and no markets. The resulting unemployment, default, and depression would seriously threaten their political stability."

Dollar Bill

(09/08/2003; 19:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108339)

*>*............+

Sir Cavan Man, greetings old buddy, dont you figger that germany and france are making a fuss because they are still trying to make the euro more viable by somehow getting oil traded in euros?

a nation of one

(09/08/2003; 19:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108340)

to DryWasher

"In an article entitled "Gold and Economic Freedom," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that "The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market- triggering a fantastic speculative boom�The speculative imbalances had become overwhelming and unmanageable by the Fed� In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation." The irony is that Mr. Greenspan's words, written in 1966 to describe the era leading up to the Great Depression, could easily have been written in 2003 to describe the consequences of his own Fed policies during the 1990s."

* These actions and their effects are intentional.

a nation of one

(09/08/2003; 20:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108342)

[!]

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Houston, we have a gap...

Gandalf the White

(09/08/2003; 20:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108343)

YES indeed, Sir ANOO !!!! A nice LITTLE GAP !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=f&a=12The one minute chart shows SPIKE in action !
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

Chris Powell

(09/08/2003; 20:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108344)

Read the judge's decision against Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase in Blanchard case

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1654The federal court decision in Blanchard lawsuit
against Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase is posted
at the GATA Internet site. Please help us spread
the word that justice is coming.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail
to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Druid

(09/08/2003; 21:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108345)

Henri (9/8/03; 10:18:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108320)

"Elwood says :
"...The government sponsored enterprises you reference are not engaging in money-creation at all. They are merely borrowing and lending that which is created by the banking system. I think there's a guy named Noland who writes on the Prudent Bear site that propounds this idea that the GSE's create money. I think he's wrong. ...""

Druid: Henri, from my perspective, you have asked an extremely difficult question that future careers will be made of in trying to decipher and explain. I would totally disagree with Elwood because of the sheer complexity of this activity. I'm a Nolan groupie and totally agree that a parallel market in credit exists and has gotten totally away from the banking system, FED and the Treasury(all these players now have to work in tandem to control Frankenstein). There came a certain point where the leverage in credit lending based on future cashflows from various sources flat just expanded beyond rational lending. We now have this credit freak of nature that has to be continually fed or game over. This might be one answer as to why you have the securitization of many financial instruments ranging from the extremely conservative to the absolute bazaar. If you haven't had the chance, read Nolan's works over at www.prudentbear.com chronicling this insanity. Also, for a particular discussion on mortgage bonds and the pleomorphism that has taken place just with these instruments, I highly recommend pages 102-106, Frank Partnoy's latest, "infectious greed", How Deceit and Risk Corrupted the Financial Markets. I hope this helps.

Old Yeller

(09/08/2003; 21:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108346)

A nation of one,Greenspan's essay

Gold and Economic Freedom,why that's just bizarro behavior
on his part,isn't it?

Final act of the saga,coming soon.

It's my job,he'd say,I do it for pay.

Old Yeller

(09/08/2003; 21:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108347)

Druid

ANOTHER suggestion,"Creative Accounting and Destructive Risk" by Henry CK Liu.

Gandalf the White

(09/08/2003; 21:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108348)

HERE we are at $378.0 SPOT again ! <;-)

Slow down SPIKE --- wait for SPOT to catch up !
390 390 390
<;-)

Simply Me

(09/08/2003; 21:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108349)

RE: Dollar Bill (09/08/03; 19:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108338)

From your post:
The dilemma for Asia is that unless they are willing to support our Dollar, they will have to create internal demand for their own goods.

My response:
Where's the delemna? With a population of over 1.2 billion, and such a large percentage of people still living by farming/herding, it looks to me like China has a huge untapped internal market waiting for just a little capatalist reform and a shot of liquidity. Why ship all that stuff across the ocean, when every Chin, Chan and Wong would like to have a vacuum cleaner, a dishwasher and a stereo.

From your post:
"...China needs us MUCH more than we need them. IF we slammed the door in their face tomorrow, the trade surplus would just shift to somewhere else: Mexico, Korea, etc. Those with the newfound suplus would be the new buyers of all of uncle sam's paper.

My response:
Why does any other country need a trade surplus of American debt that Uncle Sam can just inflate away. To invest in busted-out bonds?...the bubbled-up mortgage market?....or maybe the chopping sideways stock market that's about to take a dive when they find out there is no second-half recovery AGAIN?

Sovereign gold...the only true wealth because it owes allegiance to no one.
Simply

Druid

(09/08/2003; 21:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108350)

Old Yeller (09/08/03; 21:36:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 108347)

Old Yeller

"ANOTHER suggestion,"Creative Accounting and Destructive Risk" by Henry CK Liu"

Druid: Old Yeller, I've got it on the list thanks.

Black Blade

(09/08/2003; 22:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108351)

Market wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
The Oil Patch

Snippits:

This year is the third year of the new century and already we have had two energy crises. The first crisis began in California where mismanagement of deregulation left the state with large deficits and consumers with high utility bills. We in California are still living with the aftershocks of that crisis with lingering deficits and high utility bills. This past month the mid-west and the east coast were beset with an energy blackout reminiscent of the late 60's and early 70's. Plain and simple, the U.S. has neglected its energy infrastructure for far too long and it is beginning to show. The recent blackouts of last month and high energy prices are a portent of things to come. The problem will not be solved quickly nor will it go away. Unfortunately it is going to take further crises before the politicians wake up to the fact that energy is a vital input to economic growth and national security.

The U.S. must now import close to 60% of its energy needs and Americans consume over 25% of the world's daily output of oil. That import number is going to get larger by the end of this decade. The U.S. is more dependent on oil imports than it was 20 years ago. If nothing is done about it, the country's energy needs will rest solely on the whims of five Middle Eastern nations. This leaves the economy and national security of the nation at risk. Yet, most Americans, and especially most American politicians, worry very little about oil supplies or natural gas imports.

In 1993 there were over 5,000 active oil rigs; today we have fewer than 1,000. The only time energy gets on the front burner and captures people's attention is when a crisis erupts. Otherwise cheap and abundant energy has become an American entitlement. When crises do erupt, consumers cry foul and politicians blame the energy companies who become the scapegoat for our political and energy complacency. It is not just the fact that America is running out of energy and has become more dependent on Middle-Eastern producers to meet its energy needs; it is also our whole energy infrastructure. We haven't built a new refinery since 1976. Our energy grid system is woefully inadequate from the transmission lines needed to transport energy to the pipelines that are necessary to transport gasoline or natural gas to power plants. All we have done over the last two decades is live off the past, so today we find ourselves cannibalizing productive equipment as that very equipment deteriorates. Our refineries are operating at full capacity and every time there is a downtime for repair it almost becomes a crisis. There is no slack in the system so when something happens today it immediately turns into a crisis. Those crises will become a much more prominent feature of our national economic landscape in the years ahead.

The energy crisis cannot be solved in a day, a week, a month or a few years. There are no switches that the nation can turn on to create more energy. Sources of energy from coal, natural gas, and oil must be explored for, developed, and then transported. This process takes years. Refineries take 5-7 years to build. Add in environmental red tape and that time frame can extend beyond a decade. The private sector provides our last best hope of solving America's present and future energy crisis. Government, instead of hindering private capital through regulation and taxation, should stand out of the way and allow the marketplace to solve the problem. It is time for politicians to stop demonizing energy companies or make them the scapegoat for their own neglect, complacency and indecision. Stop vilifying companies every time prices rise in a crisis.

Black Blade: A good one from Puplava on energy. Much of what I have been hammering on for some time. Oil is a problem but the real problem is NatGas supply as it's a domestic production and delivery problem. What is really a bizarre situation for the US is that there is a lot of NatGas reserves and resources in the lower 48. In fact there is enough to meet our needs for a couple of decades. But here is the problem � energy companies are restricted to work over mature basins that are in decline. High potential target areas are simply off limits or are inaccessible due to lack of infrastructure and bureaucratic infighting between government agencies as well as activists federal appeals courts (in particular the ninth circuit court of appeals that legislates from the bench rather than interprets the law). The Rocky Mountain Front alone has potentially 138 tcf of NatGas supply (much of it is shallow low cost wells from nonconventional sources such as coalbed methane), yet companies are not allowed to drill, produce, and transport this natural resource. Don't get me wrong, this is not drilling in the Rocky Mountains or in national forests, but in the plains east of the Rocky Mountains. Meanwhile energy costs will remain high and are not expected to decline for at least the next decade. A new floor price of $4.50 Mmbtu is here to stay and that cost will wear on US industry and consumer pocketbooks. In short, forget about a real economic recovery because it ain't gonna happen.

BTW, Spot is getting quite frisky now ain't he? I can just imagine the turmoil among gold analysts trying to figure out the Spec long position on the Comex and the rising POG. They just need to take a step back and look at the big picture rather than dwell on such a narrow focus of this market. Precious metals are the only currencies not subject to the "competitive currency devaluation" that is beating up national scrip.

Gandalf the White

(09/08/2003; 22:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108352)

SE SPIKE --- you hit your head on that $379.0

Darn dog, did not listen to me again !
Must be those treats and "Roo" meat !!
SLOW down and wait for SPOT to catch up !
SLOW and STEADY !
<;-)

Zhisheng

(09/08/2003; 22:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108353)

Was gibt?

Glad to have you back Black Blade---good stuff as usual!

Hey Gandalf....what is with the hounds tonight? Usually they dig a hole in which to pass the night.

Gandalf the White

(09/08/2003; 22:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108354)

Sir Z's question -- <;-)

Must be Sir Sundeck's "Roo" meat, as they are sure JUMPY !
<;-)

steady

(09/08/2003; 22:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108355)

ratio

did u see silver hit its head on the 74 to one ratio. now back down to 70.

Black Blade

(09/08/2003; 22:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108356)

Treasuries Slide on New Debt Fears

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=3&u=/nm/20030908/bs_nm/markets_bonds_dc
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries slipped on Monday as relief at a smaller-than-expected debt auction was overtaken by an awareness that the government's ever-widening budget deficit would sooner or later take a toll on bonds. Traders were happy early in the session to discover the government's debt sale later this week would feature less new debt than previously anticipated and bid prices of government debt higher. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it would sell $16 billion in five-year notes and $13 billion in the reopened 10-year notes, below market expectations for $18 billion and $15 billion, respectively. But by the afternoon, the fleeting relief was burdened by a recognition that the sheer amount of debt being issued these days places a tough-to-break ceiling on the price of government debt. President Bush raised the financial stakes on Sunday when he used a national address to ask Congress for another $87 billion for the U.S. military and reconstruction in Iraq. The figures were daunting even for traders accustomed to dealing with lots of zeros. "We're talking a, what, $500 billion deficit this year, and that's a lot of money in anyone's language," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer, noting it was roughly equal to the entire Gross Domestic Product of Australia. Consumers appeared to be taking Washington's lead on debt, with personal debt outstanding rising to $6 billion in July to total $1.774 trillion, the Federal Reserve said on Monday.

Black Blade: Thankfully we have the printing press and it's rather easy to add a few zeros by adjusting the type set. How lovely it will be when rates jump a bit higher and kill the remnants of the refi market. Looks like that $500 billion "official" deficit will rise a bit more now that the Iraqi oil isn't coming to market and the prez sez he wants a few dollars more. I wonder just how much longer the Japanese and Chinese are willing to buy all this flood of US debt at auction, especially at it is devaluing at a nice clip. The notes are a nice design so it should make for some attractive wall paper. Still, I can't believe anyone was really surprised by these developments.

slingshot

(09/08/2003; 23:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108357)

Midas Crusade

The assasins body was taken below to the dungeon and Sir Black Blade searched the body. Finding only a few gold and silver coins and a dagger of fine metal engraved with the highest quality. Soon Gandalf entered the cell and looked upon the dead man. He looked like any other traveler and if it was not for the keen eye of Cougar, the festival would have ended in tragedy. Gandalf moved closer to the assasin and knelt down pulling open his shirt. On the mans chest was a tattoo of the image in the crystal ball. Sir M.K. entered the room. Gandalf rose and turned to the two Knights. They will try again, he said. Abruptly he excused himself and went to his chambers.
The following days would find more who seeked refuge in the land of the free. Avondale,Highlands,Metuchen and others would find the fire of the night. In the council chambers the fears of Sir M.K. would be voted on. An unamious decision to take the fight to the Dark Forces.
Preparations became easier as each story unfolded and helpful hands extended to the unfortunate.
Then one morning, at the break of dawn. Horsemen began to assemble at the gate of the castle. Their banner the same as the one of those on the northern plain. Green with a cresent moon and crossed swords.One hundred. Two Hundred. The sentries sounded the alarm. Five hundred and there seem no end. They stood motionless in ranks. And not until mid morning was there any movement. A flag of truce came forward with three riders and they stopped at the entrance to the castle. The castle gate was wide open.

Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(09/09/2003; 00:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108358)

Gandalf the White

Looks like Spike got alittle jealous.

Porterhose, Spike. ummmmmmmm!
Slingshot---------------<>

slingshot

(09/09/2003; 00:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108359)

Spike

Porterhouse, Porterhouse, Porterhouse that is.

Slingshot--------------;0)

DummyANI

(09/09/2003; 03:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108360)

Jim Sinclair is knocking out Mitsui-Precious Metal on TOCOM at Sep. 9, 2003 in Tokyo

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.htmlToday, a total trading volume of gold-future market in TOCOM is 181,160 contracts(181 tonnes paper gold). The price of gold is spike at 379 dollars per ounce. This was caused by Mitsui short cover.
Mitsui sold 90,147 contracts, and bought 91,765 contracts at Sep. 09, 2003. Nearly half of TOCOM gold-volume were traded only by Mitsui. Last February (Feb. 05, 2003), Mitsui positioned net 83,295 short.
At present, Mitsui positioned net 23,099 short. Mitsui is changing his positions from the short-side to the long-side. I am very interesting in todays NewYork market.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Zhisheng

(09/09/2003; 04:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108361)

Gold Today

Very interesting information DummyANI. I share your interest in the Comex trading today. Way it looks now, the cash price may pierce $380 before then.

Henri

(09/09/2003; 04:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108362)

Druid and Old Yeller

Thank you for the references..I'll check them out.

mikal

(09/09/2003; 05:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108363)

More mutual fund stains

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2003-09-07-outrage_x.htmScandal has investors fighting mad
By John Waggoner and Thomas A. Fogarty, USA TODAY -09-08-03
-Excerpt: "The mutual fund trading scandal that began unfolding last week has left individual investors feeling betrayed and outraged. Even worse, it leaves some questioning whether the fund industry will be able to repair the damage."

Black Blade

(09/09/2003; 05:47:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108364)

The Lord of the Castle (Mike Kosares) Quoted By Dow Jones � Congrats Mike!

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030909/15/3e138.html
Iraqi Quagmire Could Push Gold Over $400/Oz In Near-Term

Snippit:

Michael Kosares, the president of Denver-based bullion brokerage Centennial Precious Metals, has seen investors hedging their portfolios against potential losses in stocks and bonds, as well as against a further deterioration in the U.S. economy. "Gold investor concerns these days are more centered around some of the negative fallout from the war on terrorism such as rising deficits, bond market problems and deteriorating relations with key trading partners," said Kosares. Kosares agrees that gold stands to benefit from a further slide in the value of the greenback, especially if the dollar printing presses keep rolling to finance the war on terror, which now carries a $87 billion price tag. Kosares said most portfolio planners are adopting long-term strategies that account for any fallout from the efforts to rebuild Iraq, as well as the possibility of further terrorist acts at any time.

John H. Mesrobian, president of Virginia-based Constantinople Advisors, sees a few different price movement scenarios developing on the gold market. "A close above $380 will point to a quick move to $400-plus. Or gold will consolidate first before moving higher. In both cases $400 is going to be breached - and soon," he said. Mesrobian, whose firm advises investors on currencies, bonds and commodities, said gold is being driven by improving fundamentals and moves on the currency markets, particularly the slumping U.S. dollar. "The dollar is toast," he said, predicting a further slide in 2004.

Black Blade: Congrats Mike! What a nice surprise to see this as I head out the door to take care of business today. Even CNBC's Sqwakbox is making note of gold over $380 an ounce this morning. Yes indeed - the US dollar is "toast".

Black Blade

(09/09/2003; 06:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108365)

As Gold toys with the $380 level mid-morning London, a broad consensus appears to be forming among market professionals for a move well beyond recent trading highs.

Snippit:

A source of constant nagging concern among Gold market pundits, the record speculative long position in New York gold futures appears to have been grudgingly accepted as sustainable in the short to medium term by many observers overnight. Fresh money has continued to flow into the precious metal as investors sought to diversify their portfolios, forcing a rethink of the markets' long held reference points for judging the scale of the speculative position. UBS Warburg in a report this morning added; "An all time high in spec longs does not necessarily point to an immediate sell-off in gold"

Regional reports also pointed to continued healthy demand: "We're seeing buying from the Japanese, but also locally," said a Hong Kong based trader who believes gold will break overhead resistance at $379 that has thus far held firm. "With all the safe haven interest lately, I'm targeting $380, maybe $385, by the end of the week," the trader said prophetically

Similarly, ABN AMRO said in a client note that; "We will probably see more support ahead of Sept. 11 this week, and a break of $379 will see gold heading toward $390 reasonably smartly".

Black Blade: I don't have a direct link to this but this short article by TheBullionDesk's Dominic Hall says pretty much what I and few others have been saying � forget about the large Spec long position � look at the big picture! "Competitive Currency Devaluation" leaves few other options open to investors as Dubya pleads for a "few" billion more to add to a soaring budget deficit that has no end in sight and poor John Snow's pathetic groveling on his hands and knees while in Asia did not help matters much for dollar bulls and hopes for economic recovery. As an American I personally am embarrassed by the recent performance of the Treasury Secretary but as one who has insured himself with the currency of kings I feel much safer knowing my portfolio insurance is there to defend against the ravages that are about to beset the dollar and put tremendous pressure on the economy.

Gotta run now but these certainly are "Interesting Times"!

Cavan Man

(09/09/2003; 06:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108366)

Congratulations to USAGOLD!

(on your anniversary)"Time wins more converts than reason.:

Thomas Paine

(though the BEST REASONING is right HERE)

Chris Powell

(09/09/2003; 06:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108367)

Link to article just excerpted by Black Blade

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/Generators/ReportItem.asp?Code=dh001Can anyone say: "commercial signal failure"?

Caradoc

(09/09/2003; 07:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108368)

Ain't no rush like a gold rush

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B1C46EB4B%2DA8DF%2D422E%2D9DE6%2DDFD41097F7B8%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&I thought Mitsui taking its losses on the short side and going long for more than 9000 contracts might not be enough to make this the day we'll remember when we're old, but the news that GATA's case will proceed enhances the odds that today is the day.

Snippit:
"The Blanchard case now promises embarrassing disclosures about secret collusion between Barrick, Wall Street, and central banks to control the price of gold. GATA congratulates and is deeply grateful to Blanchard & Co." Murphy continued: "For five years GATA has painstakingly developed the evidence of the surreptitious suppression of the gold price. We've done a good job but we haven't had the power to compel the perpetrators to disclose their records and answer questions under oath. Now Blanchard & Co. will have that power in pursuit of the truth about the gold market. The results may be explosive - and liberating not only to mining companies and gold investors but also to the developing countries that have been devastated for so long by the gold price suppression scheme. Justice is coming."

Caradoc

Waverider

(09/09/2003; 07:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108369)

3.....2......1...BLASTOFF / \

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Spot @ $381.00+ and Silver...$5.25 this morning!

Operative

(09/09/2003; 07:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108370)

NEW Peach Color Dollar Set To Debut Oct 9

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=2&u=/dowjones/20030909/bs_dowjones/200309090110000059First Thing that comes to mind is how many of these "peaches" will it take to purchase one ounce of the heavy gold stuff. ??? 400/500/600 by the date of the new dollar debut?

Melting Pot

(09/09/2003; 07:35:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108371)

New Peach-Colored $20 Bills to Make Debut Oct. 9

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=2&u=/dowjones/20030909/bs_dowjones/200309090110000059WASHINGTON -- The new peach-hued U.S. $20 bill will be introduced at U.S. banks and businesses Oct. 9, officials plan to announce today, Tuesday's Wall Street Journal reported.

"The idea is to get consumers, businesses and money handlers accustomed to the pretty new note."

EOS

Is a hard core revaluation at hand??? Appears so!

Remarx

(09/09/2003; 08:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108373)

To Buy or Not to Buy Today?

Help! My retirement funds transfer to a precious metals IRA finally went through, of course on a day like today. Should I buy now, or wait a couple of days for a small dip? Any opinions?

Boilermaker

(09/09/2003; 08:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108374)

Gold Contracts

I'm assuming that we'll see a change in the gold contract margin requirements soon. Will such a change be only for newly placed contracts, ie., will existing contracts be grandfathered? Also, will it affect speculators and commercials equally and longs and shorts equally?

Hopefully one of experts here can give us some answers along with the probable market reaction.

Thanks,
Boilermaker

steady

(09/09/2003; 09:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108375)

the real reason.

Black blade , you know the real reason that was put out there,( usagold.com msg#: 108364) besides praising our host.
its a beacon guiding those who think to this site. they just cant come out and say it so they point the direction lets hope some more tired and distraught fiat defectors stumble on over here where there minds, souls,and beliefes in man can be nutured and restored.
honest money! an idea whose time has returned!

a nation of one

(09/09/2003; 09:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108376)

(No Subject)

"How long this mood of optimism [about gold] will last all depends on the continuing influx of new money. In an interview with Mineweb, John Hathaway, manager of the $500 million Tocqueville Gold Fund said of the current rally, "It's very early days yet". He drew particular attention to the new class of Gold securities, ...: "They're going to draw money, ...into the gold market in a way that nobody can imagine."

* In my role as fervent amateur, I interpret this to mean that we will see a very great deal more U.S. dollars being used to purchase our yellow stuff. Since I read yesterday something about the increasing price of a thing being related to increasing money available to buy it, to me this means that -over time- pog is going much, much higher. I have been working for about ten years to get my dear mother -I call her my 'dear mother' both because she is dear, and because if I didn't she might clobber me- to buy gold. She was extremely reluctant at first. I worked on her for a long time. Then, after she bought some at around 350 and it went to 250, she got very polite and I got very silent for a while, though I still knew it was a great purchase at the time. She would say, "Phoo! Gold is not going anywhere," or words to that effect. This was in the 1990s. Later when pog went above 300 I was able to get her more interested, and she bought more. Now she sees the light. This morning, I told her, "Mom, gold is at 382." She said, "Oh boy!" And when I talk to her now, she says, "should I put everything into it?" "No," I tell her, "But keep your powder dry." She will be 94 this Christmas. Last week when I visited her she asked how much I thought gold would get to be worth in the long term. I confided that although I thought 400 seems pretty probable, 500 doesn't seem all that unrealistic, and I disclosed that I wouldn't have bought if I hadn't thought it was going to a thousand in the next few years, and I had to put in there also the fact that reason is not slow to justify a potential of 3,000 per ounce, and that some people think it could go to 6,000, and that if the dollar bites the dust 12,000 was not impossible, and of course there was that guy not long ago who said that 32,000 was the price he thought was most realistic, and that other people have begun repeating that, and I did not omit telling her the well-known saying that "Every bull market always goes higher than anyone expects." She listened to all this with sincere interest and didn't say a word. Then, after awhile, she asked, "Do you really think it could go that high?" I replied, "I think a thousand dollars is likely," and I held my breath, not daring to tell her my real estimation. "Dinner will be ready soon," she said, and she didn't even blink an eye, or laugh derisively, or scold, or chide, or try to hit me, or pull my shirttail, or anything. At dinner I could tell that she was counting her money in her mind, and she looked at me out of the corner of her eye, and later we talked about buying more gold. (Her potroast still tastes as good as it did when she was forty.)

Clink!

(09/09/2003; 09:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108377)

@remarx

As none of us here are investment advisors, I don't think anyone can help you too much - it's your decision. However, here are a few points to ponder :-

1/ Why do you have to buy it all at once ?

2/ Looking at the medium-term trend (ie breakout from bullish pennant), where do you think the price will be in a year's time ? +/-$10 would you care when you retire ?

3/ If you are standing on the crater's edge of an active volcano which could blow any second trying to take a photo, how long would you stand there before taking your 'snapshot' and getting the heck out of danger ?

And lastly, just be grateful that you are in a position to have to make this decision ! Good Luck !
C!

a nation of one

(09/09/2003; 09:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108378)

to remarx

I'm no expert, but if I were in your shoes, this is how I would think of it.

If I was going to hold on to it for five or ten years, I would just go ahead and buy it. Then, in five or ten years, if the price goes up a lot, I would just go ahead and sell it. Trying to squeeze every cent out of a situation by timing purchases and sales is a shore on which many ships are wrecked.

Of course the decision is yours, like Clink! says, not mine. I am just sharing my ridiculous thoughts.

Gandalf the White

(09/09/2003; 09:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108379)

Progress report on PAPER gold at the COMEX ! <;-)

Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) at NY time of 11:00
Open $382.4; HIGH $384.8; low $376.0; Last $382.3 Change +$6.1
VOLUME = 30,612
YESTERDAY's Settlement Price $376.2 and OpenInterest 201,504
DON'T wait any longer to get the REAL STUFF !
390 390 390
<;-)

Jing Zu

(09/09/2003; 09:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108380)

@Clink!

That sounds like Great advice...Excellent information for Remarx.

Happy Birthday Michael and Jonathan Kosares!

May Future bring you Fortune....

steady

(09/09/2003; 09:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108381)

ratio

i think a .50 rise in gold causes a .01 rise in silver to keep the ratio equitable! check it out. i calculate teh ratio every few min. its a good indicator as to where silver is headed under 70 silver goes down 74 -73 silver goes up. interesting way to watch silver trade! w

Clink!

(09/09/2003; 09:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108382)

@anoo

Congratulations on your success. Mine is twenty years younger, but still has everything in shares (blue chips which she has probably held for 40+ years so the capital gains scares her) and cash/CDs. I broached the subject with her for the first time last Sunday, and, while she did not laugh, I put the phone down thinking how far I still have to go to persuade her. It's nice to know that patience and perseverance work !
C!
PS. Come to think of it, that's exactly the method that most mothers use on their children .....

Jing Zu

(09/09/2003; 09:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108383)

@a nation of one

More wonderful advice!Nice day...

steady

(09/09/2003; 10:00:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108384)

ABACUS?

http://www.ee.ryerson.ca:8080/~elf/abacus/what math tool would be usefull in finding htre ratio between to floating values,? the abacus.
wonder if it is possible that is what the big asian intrests are using? in the ratio spread game.

a nation of one

(09/09/2003; 10:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108385)

our mothers

The government put laws into effect -regarding capital gains, and also with regard to investment vehicles like IRAs and 401s- partly because the government wants to control what people do with their own money. It's hard to avoid this manipulation. Usually, I just pay the tax, and form my decision as if there was no tax. It costs me, but at least this way the government doesn't manipulate me. That's what my priorities are. Most people wouldn't do that, and they are free not to. But neither should they get themselves into a situation, like your mother and mine, where if they do what they want, they have to pay the government a substantial fine, or a sizable penalty, which is what capital gains amounts to in their kind of circumstance. I am not poor, but I keep my income very small. My home is paid for, and I'm not interested in the kinds of things most people are, so I don't have to have a lot of income. And I can even increase it considerably without having to go over the line such that the law would require that I have to pay taxes. This is how I will legally handle part of my capital gains without having to pay taxes on them. I intend to end up holding a lot of gold, and to convert enough of it to cash year by year, and keep my income under the line. Of course sooner or later, as the price goes up parabollically, then I will have to unload, and then I will have to pay taxes on that. But it will be less in taxes than if done the other way. Most people never realize what the government makes them do with their own money. They just nod their heads and say yes. That is not for me.

The Hoople

(09/09/2003; 10:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108386)

Boilermaker

The Comex is a glorified bucket shop. My experience is they are a bunch of weasels and jackals who arbitrarily change rules on a whim. I think Bunker Hunt could attest to that statement. I have had hedge status there for 5 years until gold made its recent run. They without notification simultaneously raised margins and voided my hedge status. My margin per contract went from $800 to $2,350 overnight. Fortunately they didn't flush me out. Don't count on fair play, and don't believe for a minute they won't protect their cabal buddies.

a nation of one

(09/09/2003; 10:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108387)

to Clink!

I had to talk to my mother for five or six years, about gold, before she took me seriously. It didn't hurt that I advised her in September of 2000 to get out of stocks, which, the following February, she did. Now I am glad I expended the effort, because the result is turning out to be good. Her situation is improved, and so is mine. Now we talk about these things routinely.

steady

(09/09/2003; 10:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108388)

brother can u spare 2 dimes (inflation)

2 dimes get u one gram of silver. time to go panhandle, brother can u spare two dimes a i need a gram of that good stuff!

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 11:08:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108389)

@ The Hoople

When did COMEX put these margin changes into effect? I am curious in that recent changes in the rules of the game are a reliable indicator as to the depseration of the cabal. It appears that pro-gold events are coming to pass almost daily. I can taste the panic.

Thanks!
PA

donnemuir

(09/09/2003; 11:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108390)

New $20 FRN

Is it simply irony or is there a message behind the color gold "20" on the new bill?

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 11:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108391)

@ donnemuir - RE: the new $20 bill

It has been said that nothing happens in politics (banking being a logical extension of) by chance. Is it coincidental that the NYSE and LSE have fast-tracked the approval of a EFT (security to represent one tenth of an ounce of gold and be traded like a stock) to occur by the end of September AND then the UST announcing the release of the new peach (gold) colored $20 at the start of October? I do not think that this is coincidence. I believe that we are at the door step of a monetary transition that has long been predicted at this forum. The next 30-60 days will be anything but boring. Buckle up.

I may be wrong.

PA

donnemuir

(09/09/2003; 11:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108392)

@Paper Avalanche

Thanks, I've been following the background noise on the new currency but could not put it together with such clear and concise understanding. Still that peach colored number 20 sure looks gold to me...oh well "some call it a spear...the Fed calls it...."

Ten Bears

(09/09/2003; 12:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108393)

good read today from Lewis @chaos

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmIn vain may heroes fight and patriots rave,
If secret Gold sap on from knave to knave.

Once, we confess, beneath the patriot's cloak,

From the crack'd bag the dropping guinea spoke,

And jingling down the back stairs, told the crew

'Old Cato is as great a rogue as you.'
Blest paper credit ! best and last supply !

That lends Corruption lighter wings to fly !

Gold imp's by thee can compass hardest things,

can pocket states, can fetch or carry kings

The Hoople

(09/09/2003; 12:03:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108394)

Paper Avalanche,

The COMEX margin/hedge status switch happened back in the spring when gold made that brief run at $390.As you might recall it almost immediately drifted back to $320- $340. Funny how crude oil almost quadrupled from $10 to $38 and the NYMEX never raised a margin yet gold had a 30% run and they apparently hit the panic button. Don't forget also the 1999 "market orders only" edict on gold options when option holders that were $4,000 in the money were forced to accept $800 or whatever. Sir Marketalk can attest to that one I believe. You are on the right track when you say the next squirrelly COMEX rule change might be the last gasp of desperation.

Liberty Head

(09/09/2003; 13:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108396)

Fashionable Fiat - The New $20 Bill

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/030909/170/57s2x.html
The new more colorful notes now have the added bonus value of going with a wider variety of decors, should one decide to use them as wallpaper in the near future.
No doubt, the next edition will be quilted and come in double rolls. :-)

Best Wishes

Clink!

(09/09/2003; 13:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108397)

Designer Money

Ah ! I always wondered what handle Martha Stewart used at this forum ... LOL
C!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/09/2003; 14:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108398)

Special Offer:

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Dutch Gold Guilders

Dutch 10 Guilder Queen Whilhelmina
.1947 oz Gold, Uncirculated Condition

Discounted to compete with bullion.

We have secured a good deal on these coins and want to pass the benefits on to you, giving you the opportunity to own uncirculated pre-1933 gold coins for less than the cost of similarly-sized bullion coins. That's right, it would cost you MORE per ounce to buy 1/4 US Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs or Austrian Philharmonics.

This special will run through Friday, September 12 at 12:00 P.M. MST, or only while our supply lasts. Purchase a roll of 50 or more and receive free shipping for additional savings.

This special is very similar to the one we ran a couple of weeks ago on German 20 Marks, and is an excellent opportunity to add the necessary protection to your portfolio that only gold can provide.

If you would like further details on this golden opportunity to add pre-1933 coins to your porfolio at a low premium to spot gold, give USAGold-CPM, Inc. a call and go into the weekend with gold... and a smile that your friends will wonder about.

1-800-869-5115

segel_flieger

(09/09/2003; 14:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108399)

COMEX margin requirements

>> Also, will it affect speculators and commercials equally and longs and shorts equally?

The exchange margins for those with hedger status (meaning they buy/sell the commodity as part of their business) are usually lower than for speculators. This is true of most any commodity for which futures contracts exist, not just Gold and Silver. Requirements are always the same for long vs. short positions.

The current numbers for COMEX are available at;

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/ewd_margins.jsp

The CBOT mini contracts have slightly lower requirements (for gold, multiply by 3 to correct for the difference in contract size, for silver multiply by 5);

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/report/0,2531,13+49+90+D,00.html

Can't say I personally see an increase quite yet, I think prices and volatility will need to go up more. (Perhaps something north of $400/oz for gold?).

The effect on the marketplace more or less depends on the size of the change in margins *relative* to the change in underlying prices. It's when margins are increased more (in a relative sense) than the price of the commidity that weak specs are "knocked out" because they are over-committed.

Solomon Weaver

(09/09/2003; 15:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108400)

mini mini gold spot contracts

Paper Avalanche (9/9/03; 11:20:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108391)
@ donnemuir - RE: the new $20 bill
It has been said that nothing happens in politics (banking being a logical extension of) by chance. Is it coincidental that the NYSE and LSE have fast-tracked the approval of a EFT (security to represent one tenth of an ounce of gold and be traded like a stock) to occur by the end of September. ....

Paper A. Such a security must be redeemable in real gold!! Otherwise it is gold fiat. My suggestion, if the security is created, would be that gold mining companies should simply stop mining gold, buy up a bunch of these coupons, and deliver (sell) them to the folks in India, who can give them in envelopes at weddings.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(09/09/2003; 15:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108401)

interactive look at the new $20 bill

http://www.moneyfactory.com/newmoney/main.cfm/currency/interactivebillSome might find this interesting.

Carl H

(09/09/2003; 15:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108402)

Odd Charts

Did anyone else notice that the Silver and Gold charts over at K did a backward step in time at about 15:15 NY time. I have never seen this before. It strikes me as odd that it would just happen to occur on such a nice day for gold and silver.

Got Physical Gold?

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 15:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108403)

@ Solomon Weaver

Agreed. However, I am inclined to think that the ruse awaiting those who fall for the new paper gold security will be similar in design to our current fractional reserve banking system. The notion that there must be a comparable amount of gold standing ready for delivery relative to the number of shares outstanding assumes a "run" by the masses to redeem the paper gold security en masse. As long as every holder of said paper gold security should not redeem simultaneously, there can exist (and likely will exist) a number of paper gold security shares backed by a fraction of the total physical gold represented by the outsanding shares. Same scam. Different vehicle. This go around, IMO, it is simply a means by which US and GB investors are able to ride the upcoming gold rocket. This thing is ready to take off and what better way to help voters alleviate their massive debts than to give them a means by which they will be able to get more fiat thorugh their 401(k) or brokerage accounts for simply betting on the POG (and I think that you will begin to see VERY pro-gold propoganda in the financial media once the EFT is released so as to get the herd moving in the right direction as quickly as possible - i.e. the Barron's article this weekend)

PAPER AVALANCHE - not just a posting handle, but a mathematical certainty

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 15:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108404)

@ Solomon Weaver - another thought

There will likely be a very high requirment for physical redemption (i.e. a 10 or 100 ounce minimum) to facilitate the ability to have a large number of EFT shares supported by a relatively small amount of physical gold. If you have just a few shares you will not be able to redeem for physical. Kinda like the margin requirements on the COMEX. You must be this tall to ride the ride and the amusement park reserves the right to lower the bar in the middle of the ride.

That's how I would do it if I wanted to replicate the current futures contract scam.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 15:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108405)

@ Solomon Weaver - another thought - part two

Anticipating a tidal wave of fiat dollars seeking gold, might the EFT be a sponge of sorts strategically placed by TPTB to ensure that the transition from the dollar to gold as the new reserve asset is as orderly as possible? I believe that the EFT is a control valve to relieve the pressure on the physical markets while those who constituted the cabal of the past two decades unwind their positions over the next sixty months. Soon there will be a clamoring among the great unwashed to want to get in on the gold action. They will call their brokers for advice. The broker will dissuade said potential gold investor from taking his money out of the market using the same tried and true scare tactics (costs too much to store, can be stolen, etc.) and will have a very convenient alternative for the insistent investor that will allow him to benefit dollar for dollar with the price of gold. This will at least buy some time until the price of physical begins to separate from the paper price.

I may be way off base here. Just thinking out loud.

PA

Gondolin

(09/09/2003; 16:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108406)

Paper Avalanche 108405

You stated you may be way off target with your last comments on the EFT. Somehow I think you've more likely hit the target in the middle and split the arrow in two.

The proposed EFT, the new paperisation proposals for the physical Indian market are all surely means being introduced by TBTB, the PPT and Friends to manage and control the rise of gold and so allow the unwinding of the untenable position they are in.

The golden horse has bolted but they've still got a few ropes they're throwing out to try and get that saddle on so they don't get dragged through the dust and ultimately left behind.

Will be interesting to see the change in the media angle over the next months as POG pushes and breaks the $400 mark.
Bloomberg comments tonight from some unknown analyst were laughable at best, but pathetic in their obvious insincerity, indicated by her nervous twitching and refusal to focus the eyes on any one point through the course of the interview as she dismissed the latest surge as unsustainable.

donnemuir

(09/09/2003; 16:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108407)

Paper Avalanche

Maybe the FED will issue a whole new category of colored paper specifically for EFT redemption and create another tier of paper gold.

Boilermaker

(09/09/2003; 17:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108408)

segel_flieger & The Hoople

Thanks for the gold contract margin info for my msg 108374.

The gold war on the paper front is truly heating up. The good guys, spec longs, seem to be moving forward and gaining strength. It's like WW1 trench warfare. One trench at a time at the expense of much ammunition and many lives. When does the enemy bring out the WMD's, ie., mustard gas?

Maybe I'm paranoid after suffering through years of the "morning after the gold rally blues" scenario. At what point does the enemy capitulate? In any case the winners will be rewarded with a paper trophy, suitable for mounting but not redeemable for real things.

neer-do-well

(09/09/2003; 18:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108409)

carl h

Yes, I noticed the the back step on kitco. No explanation tho.

Can anyone direct me to a source that sells physical rhodium?

Gandalf the White

(09/09/2003; 18:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108410)

Calling Sir Rich !!! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GHello Sir Rich !!!
Have you finished smoothing the mud yet ?
Here is ANOTHER little "green X" for you on your chart.
Do you know what a "Bullish Catapult Breakout ALERT" is ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/09/2003; 18:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108411)

AND here is the P&F Goldhearts Chart !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThat is a NEW "X" above the red "Nine", BUT they used all the green ink on the SILVER chart today and made the "X" black ! (Tough to get good TA helpers nowdays !)
390 390 390
<;-)

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 18:59:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108412)

Acronym apologies

The Exchnage Traded Fund is the ETF. I mentioned in my earlier posts that the EFT is the paper gold security. That is my mistake. EFT is an acronym that I regularly use in my line of business (Electronic Funds Transfer).

Sorry for the confusion.

Thanks!
PA

R Powell

(09/09/2003; 19:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108413)

"Bullish Catapult Breakout ALERT"

Gandalf: thanks for the chart link and yes, that green X does look good there. Why aren't there more green ones?

I would be hard pressed to define exactly what a bullish catapult breakout alert is but I haven't been able to find a negative indicator other than Cudlow, Krammer and Cohen for some time now. AUX and HUI !!

Has gold reached the point where many wish they were there and are itching for a small retraction so they can jump in? Maybe. It certainly appears to have buying support on any downturn. I like to think of the Path of least resistence and then I think up- for sure. Silver is still priced lower than those levels that Buffet bought in 1997!

Hey, I'll bet that alert has something to do with that green X doesn't it, and its sitting above all the other ones, yes?

M.K. Congratulations! If gold and silver really get going you may have to get used to interviews. Remember now, we try to win one game at a time, it's a team effort and we couldn't have done it without the fans' support.
Are we having fun now?
Rich

Goldbug 1

(09/09/2003; 19:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108414)

PM Liquidation

On the advice of my cat Fur Face I today liquidated all my PM & PM Share positions when gold hit US$382.
OK Spot & Spike, its canine knowledge against feline intuition. May the best animal win!

Dollar Bill

(09/09/2003; 19:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108415)

*>*............+

I agree with Sir R.Powell, Congradulation MK on getting some more notice. Thanks Simply Me, methinks you are right.

Melting Pot

(09/09/2003; 19:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108416)

Senators seek tariffs against China

Beltway Bandits in a Panic???Senators seek tariffs against China
Bush administration backs China criticism, but not tariffs By Corbett B. Daly, CBS Marketwatch
Last Update: 7:34 PM ET Sept. 9, 2003

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Ratcheting up the political pressure, a group of U.S. senators introduced legislation Tuesday to impose tariffs on all imports from China to prod the Chinese government to drop its nearly decade-old currency peg to the U.S. dollar.

"This legislation is a tough-love effort to get the Chinese to stop playing games with their currency in order to level the playing field for American companies trying to compete with goods and service coming from China," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., who is leading the effort to pressure the Bush administration to spur China to change its currency policy.

The administration is backing a companion measure that criticizes China but stops short of imposing tariffs.

"The Treasury Department helped draft the legislation so they are supportive" of the companion measure that stops short of imposing tariffs, said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Asked about the comments from Graham, a Treasury Department official made it clear that Treasury aides helped only with the resolution calling on China to let its currency float but did not assist with the bill that would impose 27.5 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports.

"We offered technical advice for the (companion) resolution, but had no involvement in the Dole-Schumer legislation," the Treasury official said, referring to Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., another of the bill's sponsors.

Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.; Jim Bunning, R-Ky.; and Richard Durbin, D-Ill., also are sponsoring the measure.

American manufacturers complain that the fixed Chinese exchange rate provides an unfair cost advantage to China's exports and is therefore costing thousands of U.S. jobs. The U.S. manufacturing sector has shed 2.7 million jobs over the last three years.

Manufacturers and lawmakers convinced Treasury Secretary John Snow to raise the issue with the Chinese government in a trip to Beijing last week. There, Snow unsuccessfully urged Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to drop the country's peg to the U.S. greenback.

China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994, and Wen told Snow that it is in both Chinese and U.S. interests to maintain the stability of the yuan, according to state media reports.

The National Association of Manufacturers, the top lobbying group for U.S. factories, praised Snow for his rhetoric in Beijing last week, but said that China's response was inadequate.

"China needs to take this issue seriously and move quickly to end the undervaluation of the yuan and allow markets to determine the currency's value, rather than government intervention," said Jerry Jasinowski, president of NAM.

The U.S. business community is not unanimous in its support for making Chinese goods more expensive to Americans.

The senators and manufacturers want "to increase the cost of T-shirts to American consumers to punish the Chinese. The logic there escapes me," said Willard Workman, senior vice president of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

"I understand their frustrations ... (but) it escapes me what economics course they took," Workman said, "if you want be the Grinch that stole Christmas, then raise tariffs on imports from China."

Schumer and Graham acknowledged that the legislation is a political move that may never become law.

"My hope is that we'll never get to the bill, because this hopefully will be addressed," said Graham.

Schumer said the bill is designed "to get everybody's attention."

The issue could become fodder in the 2004 presidential race, as both parties are increasing the rhetoric against China.

"The political forces behind this bill are unusual, probably will never be duplicated again, but that shows you how deep the problem is," said Graham.

Snow is not the only one reluctant to back the tariff measure after increasingly tough rhetoric against the Chinese government.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., who is running for the Democratic nomination for president in the 2004 race for the White House, last month joined Schumer and Dole in urging the Treasury chief to talk tough with officials in Beijing but did not co-sponsor the tariff legislation.

"He has not had a chance to decide whether he will support the bill, but he may," said Casey Aden-Wansbury, spokeswoman for Lieberman, former Vice President Al Gore's running mate in 2000.

Corbett B. Daly covers the White House and the Treasury Department for CBS MarketWatch in Washington.

Socrates964

(09/09/2003; 19:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108417)

Au/Ag

Sir Gandalf, have just been perusing your P&Fs.

Gold objective remains $424 as previously stated.

Silver = $6.02 (4.82 + (8*3*0.05)).

Thought for the day:

One of my trading teachers has frequently noted that the sure way to tell that a rally is ending is to publicly advocate an aggressive short and observe whether the volume of abusive E-mails/phone calls goes up. (Bill Murphy does something similar with hits on his site).

If this rule is correct, the broad equity indices are close to rolling over.

Liberty Head

(09/09/2003; 20:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108418)

Funny Ha Ha Money

Sometimes all you can do is laugh about it.

Why are we getting redesigned fiat notes?
To protect us from counterfeit notes, of course.
This is the reason offered by the same folks who have "this thing called a printing press" and have suggested they would "drop money from a helicopter" if needed. Now they would have us believe counterfeit bills are a threat.

Someone call 911. Ah Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

I think we all know who the real counterfeiters are. ;-)

Best Wishes

Flaccus

(09/09/2003; 20:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108419)

From Bill Muphy's report today......

http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.comPossible tie-in to my info there is a 4.6 billion dollar gold buyer out there:

post at Newmont board at Yahoo

... no testing its veracity.

I just spoke to a very good and long time friend of mine who is a trader at the COMEX. He's been a trader there for many years. Told me tonight that for the past week or so, there's been chatter on the floor about a absolutely massive buyer working the pits as quietly as possible, probing the market to see if there is any size offered and at what levels. His instinct is that the buyer behind this is possibly the largest the floor has seen in years. He spoke with several floor traders representing commercials today and the word is going around that the commercials are getting quite nervous because they sense that the dynamics of the market have changed due to the persistent massive buyer. He said the tension is extremely high on the floor and he can't remember when things have been this "interesting" in many years. He said that he and some other smart traders he knows are playing things close to the vest at this level and taking advantage of dips to buy common stocks in the $HUI especially the smaller cap names, as well as buying long contracts on the metal on short-induced dips.

Thought the board would find this interesting.

Paper Avalanche

(09/09/2003; 20:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108420)

@ Goldbug 1

Thanks for the extremely informative post. Good luck. I guess that you will take those valuable FRN's and invest them in a savings / brokerage account. If you get the rate of interest in a savings account you will yield a whopping 1%. However, people typically save for retirement. If you are gainfully employed, you will notice your employee-paid cost of health insurance increasing 15-20% annually. Stay with me here (in case you are math deficient), you will actually lose spending power by keeping your dollars, the product of your labor, in dollars in a "savings" account with a bank. In order to keep up with the 15-20% rate of increase in the cost of that which will be most important to you in 10, 20 or 30 years from now you need to store the product of your labor in something other than a dollar denominated savings account.

Best of luck to you. Please tell your boss that similar posts only provide active posters on this forum to educate new members rather than allow similiar postings to sow seeds of doubt among those seeking the truth.

Take care.

PA

Pizz

(09/09/2003; 20:31:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108421)

Paper Tigers (pun intended)

Sometimes you wonder whether the collected brain power of all elected and appointed officials would cover the head of a pin (Ron Paul excluded and maybe a few others).

Who's brilliant idea was it to try to strong arm China. Let's hope they have a bit of a sense of humor. Last time I checked we had a small problem trying to fill the seats at the last treasury auction, and we threaten one of the larger buyers with tariffs??? Kind of like being past due to you're bookie and threatening to miss a payment unless they lower the vigorish. . . .oh well, I guess we just keep throwing paper at them and they're bound to get hurt, except for the fact that they just might have a bit more physical than we think, or at least enough to soften the blow. . .

---------------------------

Been reading some about all the parallels between now and 1987 with regards to the bond and stock market situation. The bull camp keeps saying that there are too many puts open on stocks to have any correction and that because of all the puts, there is a floor under the market. Well if the put writers are the ones buying stocks to support their derivatives position, they better hope they're right. Cause if they aren't, not only will they have to unload the stock they are buying in support, but they will have to go short to hedge their written puts -- kind of like a double whammy, and that is what crashes are made of. . . and they're in this position trying to bust the neckline of the largest head and shoulders SM formation in history, a few days away from 911 anniversary, and the government trying to borrow more money in the shortest time frame in the history of the world. Knee deep in gasoline and reaching for a smoke - say friend have you got a light???

----------------------------

Side note on selling residental real estate into a soft market - not fun.

-------------------

Pizz

Liberty Head

(09/09/2003; 20:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108422)

Father Forgive Me, I Have Lusted For Gold

More funny stuff:
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. markets headed in all directions on Tuesday, with stocks and the dollar taking a beating, while bonds got a boost from an impending treasury auction and the lust for gold continued.

----

So, it's a lust thing. :-)

Oh my cheeks hurt from all the laughter today.

mikal

(09/09/2003; 22:00:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108423)

@Liberty Head

"Father forgive me, I have lusted after gold." Didn't you know, there is no penance for that minor sin? The church priests will hear your confession thogh, if it makes you feel better.
These days more writers are actually projecting their own feelings for Au, perhaps subconsciously, while openly engaging the reading audience with their newfound and newly applauded obsession, instead of flogging a dead horse- laying on the sanctimonious "barbarous relic" or "hoarder" guilt-trip tagging.

Druid

(09/09/2003; 22:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108424)

Paper Avalanche (9/9/03; 15:58:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 108405)

Druid: PA, I think you and many others at this fine forum are so on target that USAGOLD101 should be offered at every major institution of higher learning. My best guess is that the sheep will be herded toward the paper via the tried and true formula of the NASDOG(where old metrics of rational valuation are discarded for a new paradigm) and will then be sheered by the WORLD PLAYERS(old & smart money) as delusion transitions to reality. Strap in ladies and gents, this could be a rough ride.

steady

(09/09/2003; 23:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108425)

rhodium

go to ask jeves type in how do i purchase rhodium and bingo up pops a great place to buy it from. id post teh link but they sell precious metals so no advertising for them . sometimes u have to do your own work! all 35 seconds of it ! whew!

bugs

(09/09/2003; 23:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108426)

optimism..

I'm all for optimism, but it seems a bit much lately.

It's getting time to clean up a bit, imho. Probably I am wrong, but who cares.

bugs

(09/09/2003; 23:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108427)

"Gold" bugs

Apologies for not doing the 15 minute google search, but I was wondering.. why are gold advocates are referred to as "Gold Bugs"?

Is that term a derogatory slant, or is it badge of honor, or both?

Of course, there is the old coinage of the term bug (no pun intended).. from Harvard or somewhere -- the moth that got caught up in the transistors in an early PDP machine or something.

I was just curious why gold people are called "bugs".

Does the term 'bug' represent defects in the financial mechanisms of the reality generator?

slingshot

(09/10/2003; 00:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108428)

Bugs Msg#108427

bug A fan or afficiando of a perticular interest. That interest being in favor or not in the popular trend.

Yo Ho,Yo Ho, A Goldbugs life for me.
Slingshot----------;0)

Aragorn III

(09/10/2003; 01:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108429)

Mr. bugs:

In history "goldbug" is a derision. Accepting proud ownership of this dusty title does not clear the air.

Follow the goldheart: choose instead the ownership of gold because there is found the true understanding of wealth and security as Substance, NOT as Concept.

got gold?

The Invisible Hand

(09/10/2003; 01:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108430)

King Aragorn III is back

Welcome back, Majesty.
Hope FOA follows His Majesty's example.

Great Albino Bat

(09/10/2003; 03:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108431)

Just a thought for this morning...

This is a confused and confusing world. "Things are not what they seem" is to be kept in mind by anyone who would aspire to understand events, even minimally.

In today's world, events CAN be produced at will, to guide opinion and thus make way for political strategies.

The series of blasts about a month ago, in India, which killed so many people, was blamed on Islamic terrorist elements. But WERE Islamists actually the ones setting off bombs? Might be, and then it might not be so.

Now we read that Ariel Sharon, the Israeli leader has been in India forging an alliance between Israel and India, against Islam.

This old bat speculates that such an alliance might have been furthered and brought within reach, by the drastic Islamic terrorist acts against India's population which I have mentioned. However, WAS IT actually Islamics who set off those explosions? Or was it......?

ON "GOLDBUGS"

Yes, the term "goldbug" is a term of derision.

Gold is not for weaklings and fools. It is for men, Herren, as the Germans would say. Let the fools babble and jeer. One day they will be saying, "Buddy, can you spare a dime?"

Edgar Allan Poe, that strange genius of American literature, wrote a short story ("The Goldbug" if I am not mistaken) back in the mid-19th Cent., about the finding of a treasure. The story included a coded message which contained, for effect, the requirement that a gold-colored beetle, the "goldbug", be lowered on a string through the eye of a skull on a branch. The spot on the ground touched by the gold-bug, would be the spot to dig for the treasure.

This is where the term "goldbug" originated.

Today, no need to dig for buried treasure. Plenty of it, here at USAgold, and - still so cheap! Gold for paper - what a bargain!

Guano from the GAB on Bald Mountain.

Boilermaker

(09/10/2003; 03:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108432)

China's Trade Balance

Here's a news item that I found surprising:

China Jan-Aug exports jump 32.5 pct yr/yr
Tuesday September 9, 11:03 pm ET

BEIJING, Sept 10 (Reuters) - China's exports in August were $37.4 billion, up 27.2 percent over a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday.
August imports rose 27.3 percent over a year earlier to $34.6 billion, creating a monthly surplus of $2.8 billion, the ministry said on its Web site at www.mofcom.gov.cn.

In the January-to-August period, exports rose 32.5 percent over a year earlier to $265.8 billion while imports were up 40.6 percent at $256.9 billion.

The surplus in the first eight months was $8.86 billion, down 50.4 percent from a year earlier.

comment;
If these numbers are accurate it's no wonder that Snow got the bums rush in Bejing. China's reported monthly and cumulative 2003 trade surplus is miniscule according to these numbers and a revaluation would put them in the red. But, I'm thinking that they probably cook the export/import books to justify their trade position or maybe they count t notes as imports or they're importing a ton-a-day Swiss gold. Any other thoughts here?

misetich

(09/10/2003; 06:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108433)

The Prince and Putin - Will Saudi's investments flow to Russia?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/10/006.htmlSnip:

The arrival of Saudi Arabia's de facto leader in Moscow has therefore been seen as evidence of the beginning of a Saudi realignment.

Such speculation is probably justified, but it remains to be seen how far this realignment will go. After all, the Saudis have been putting all their eggs in one basket, so to speak, for some time. Saudi investments and bank deposits in the United States are estimated at $400 billion to $600 billion, and this situation will not change overnight.
................
On Aug. 15, 600 relatives of those who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington filed a series of lawsuits in U.S. courts against three Saudi princes, eight Muslim charities and a number of Saudi companies, accusing them of financing al-Qaida. Total damages sought in the lawsuits amount to tens of billions of dollars, and it is possible that Saudi assets in the United States could be frozen if the courts rule in favor of the victims' families. According to reports in the Western press, Saudi oligarchs have already begun to pull their money out of the United States, though officially the Saudis deny this, dismissing the lawsuits as groundless.

Optimists in Russia believe that if things go well Saudi Arabia could redirect some $200 billion into the Russian economy in the near future. While such investment would be welcome, these are still early days. During Prince Abdullah's visit, the two countries agreed to work together to stabilize world crude markets. They also agreed to simplify the process of creating joint venture companies in the oil and gas sector.
...................
*************
Misetich

Where there's smoke there's fire - The pieces are being moved around the chessboard - It is interesting on how pivotal Putin role has been in cultivating Saudis disinchatement with US chessoboard moves into IRAQ - and disruptive forces in Venezuela to topple Chavez -
Ultimately OPEC could be the objective...

Lets stay tuned on this one - It is a certainty that Arabs money is nervous out there -

How much of it is being diverted into gold - PHYSICAL GOLD?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

mikal

(09/10/2003; 06:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108434)

Freddie and Fannie folly

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3416985http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3416985Fannie, Freddie Oversight for Treasury?
Wed September 10, 2003 12:39 AM ET
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Snippitts:
"The Bush administration is widely expected to recommend to Congress on Wednesday that the U.S. Treasury assume regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reassure markets the mortgage finance companies do not pose a risk to the financial system."

"Freddie Mac acknowledges ignoring accounting standards while under-reporting earnings by $1.5 billion to $4.5 billion over 2000 to 2002 to push earnings into the future and sustain a reputation for steady earnings growth. The company replaced two chief executives in less than three months because of their ties to the irregularities, which are under investigation by regulators and law enforcement officials. Analysts say they expect lawmakers to hold off on imposing new capital requirements on the companies for five years. Critics say the companies should be required to hold more capital to buffer themselves better against risk."

"The administration will tread lightly with recommendations to change government oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The companies play a central role in U.S. housing markets where soaring home values have been one of the few economic consolations for Americans in the past three years as the rest of the economy has struggled. With the presidential election just over a year away and the economy a key concern for voters, the administration will be loath to say anything that could make mortgages more costly."

mikal

(09/10/2003; 07:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108435)

@misetich

Interesting stats on the Saudis.
Surely they're the highest profile Arab investors, so Turkey, Pakistan, Yemen, etc., do not evoke much discussion. Similarly to Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burma, Nepal, even India, etc. as if the globe could do without them.
Yet many Asians, particularly the Communists, are notoriously reticent with statistics, public or private, if they differentiate these sectors! All this, while U.S. universities maintain disproportionately large foreign enrollments. But for how long? How long can trade imbalances with western nations grow like a cancer?

Paper Avalanche

(09/10/2003; 08:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108436)

It's Official - The Last Shoes Will Drop in The Next 60 Days

This is from Mineweb:

"10 Sep 10:00
WGC gold fund set for October debut in London - Hale
MINEWEB - Economist David Hale stunned Gold Show participants herewith news that the World Gold Council's new exchange traded gold fund, Equity Gold, will launch in London at beginning of October, followed by New York at the end of the same month, Paris in early November and Hong Kong after that..."

The paper gold sponge is being put into place to soak up the onslaught of dollars seeking the ultimate store of value. The ETF will be trading in the NYSE by Halloween. The window of opportunity to buy gold at these ridiculously low prices is rapidly closing.

Take care all. It has been fun participating in the exchnage of ideas over the past couple of days.

PA

Ten Bears

(09/10/2003; 09:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108437)

Gold Funds

"Cranks are cranks until they are proven right" Mark Twain

"As a younger man, I thought of elderly sound money advocates as old cranks, however with the passage of time and considerable study, I have had the good fortune to join their ranks." Comment from a member of a tribal geezers association.

Some of the financial corporations that have grown up around the central bank and some trade associations are now tripping over each other to offer "gold based investment opportunities" to retail investors. I am not convinced that tack is to benefit true gold advocates. It is more likely that the investment vehicles will be used to steer potential gold buyers away from the real thing and into the same old market rig we have seen since the Greenspan era began. A lot of people taking losses on gold related investments cannot be good for real gold advocates long term. There should be plenty of opportunity for intermediate term profit.

Great Albino Bat

(09/10/2003; 09:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108438)

Paper Avalanche: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

We can't verify Fort Knox - who is going to supervise Equity Trust Fund investment in gold?

The ETF could get along perfectly well, with not more than 5% of its shareholders' money actually invested in gold.

If anyone wants to redeem his shares for gold, the process- you can be sure - will be involved and cumbersome. You would have to travel to NY, London, Paris or Hong Kong to redeem. (USAgold is straightforward; the reason: ETF has an agenda. USAGOLD has not.) You have to have at least $10,000 invested in ETF to qualify for redemption of your paper shares into physical.

5% gold in hand should be more than sufficient to satisfy possible redeemers.

The rest - 95% - can be "invested" in, for instance: "gold receivables" that are not collectible, and maybe some banks would like to have them off their books? After all, the IMF says "gold receivables" are as good as gold, so should the ETF take an unreasonable position, differing from that of the IMF? And you, miserable worm that you are as a private investor, who are you to object to the dictates of their sovereign majesties, the IMF? What is good enough for the IMF, is not good enough for YOU?

Or the ETF can go long on diverse exchanges, on futures, and then hedge them by going short, "just in case", which "protective" strategy, "looking after the welfare of the investors", would be similar to that of the miners hedging future production - "get a better future price, now" and that drags down future prices.

I am thinking that this ploy is subtle and we better understand clearly the implications. This ETF can act as a kind of barrier, rather similar to a barrier to a forest fire, where you cut down or even burn a swath of forest to prevent the fire from spreading further. "Fight gold, with gold".

Mark my words, the ETF will not be pro gold. It's a pabulum for the masses. If it works the way I fear it may work, then - look for another 25 years of controlled gold prices.

Will someone wiser than this GAB, please explain why these worries are unsubstantiated? The ETF is THE POWERS THAT BE, make no mistake. This is not the "free market" at work! The whole aim of this worldwide thrust is to preserve the status quo, which is, PAPER. If my views are mistaken, I will be most happy to recognize my mistakes.

The GAB

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/10/2003; 09:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108439)

Special Offer:

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Dutch Gold Guilders

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 10:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108440)

Sir Rich --- The Bullish Catapult Breakout description is defined as ----

http://stockcharts.com/support/pnfAlerts.htmlAT THE ABOVE LINK ----> Bullish Catapult Breakout

---------------------------X <-- bullish catapult breakout
triple top breakout -->--X X
---------------------X X XOX
--------------------OXOXOXOX
--------------------OXOXOXO
--------------------OXOXO

A triple top breakout followed by a double top breakout is recognized as a bullish catapult breakout. The implication is that there was supply at the triple top level that was keeping prices from going up, but the triple top breakout took some of that supply away. Prices then retraced, allowing more buyers to create demand which continued to power the up move in prices.
===
See Sir Rich --- there some "fundamentals" included in the TA results of charting !
LOTS more to learn in P&F charting !
<;-)

TownCrier

(09/10/2003; 10:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108441)

WGC's Rhona O'Connell on today's gold market

http://www.gold.org/"Gold fixed at a new high for the year yesterday afternoon in London, although the intraday high (towards $389/ounce, February 5th) was not breached. The market has developed independent momentum of its own, reflecting continued uncertainty over the dollar, the sustainability of the US recovery and by implication the level of the equity markets, the vicissitudes of the bond market and geo-political considerations in the Middle and Far East.

"All of these are conspiring to draw fresh funds into gold despite the record net long position on COMEX and some dealers are iterating the view that the new interest appears to be more from risk-averse longer-term holders than those who trade between sectors on a short term basis.

"That said, there is selling appearing at these levels and the market actively traded a narrow range between $380 and 384/ounce in New York before a quiet session in Asia. It is testament to the change in market sentiment that a year ago, an intra-day range of $4/ounce would have been described as "wide".

"Dealers are commenting that last night's close $381.50 bid is bang on important resistance; today's trading is therefore potentially significant."

admin

(09/10/2003; 10:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108442)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

New Stein.

The London Bullion Market Association's "A Summary of Gold Market Opinions on the Central Bank Gold Agreement" pdf file

___________

"Argentina defaulted on its IMF loans yesterday saying that it would not jeopardize its reserves in order to pay its debt. Now, it is being reported, Argentina and the IMF are close to an agreement. Argentina devalued its currency last year, froze its citizens' savings and defied western banking interests by defaulting on billions in debts. Thereafter, the peso lost another 67 percent of its value and there seems to be no relief in sight. That, my fellow goldmeisters, is as good an argument as I can make in behalf of private gold ownership."

Melting Pot

(09/10/2003; 10:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108443)

Alan Greenspan, Come Home

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/greenspan_home.htmSNIPS:

I came across an old article of yours, Mr. Greenspan, and wondered what you would say about it today. It's called "Gold and Economic Freedom." [1] I found it fascinating and would like to review a few of its main points with you.*****

Recall also how former IRS commissioners have spoken out against the income tax. Though most suggest replacing it, at least one identified it for what it was: a page out of Karl Marx. "The income tax] is written into the Communist Manifesto," said IRS Commissioner T. Coleman Andrews. "Maybe we ought to see that every person who gets a tax return receives a copy of the Communist Manifesto with it so he can see what's happening to him." [2]

You might recall, the fifth plank of the Manifesto pushes for a central bank such as the Federal Reserve. G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve, believes the Fed is so devious the government could operate without collecting any taxes whatsoever. One of the reasons it does collect taxes is to keep taxpayers from looking too closely at the Fed. [3]

But you could get them to look if you said the right words. Stand by your article, Mr. Greenspan, and stand up for gold.

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/greenspan_home.htm

Gold and Economic Freedom
by Alan Greenspan

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

Two great reads!

Big battles taking place in gold pits today! Tic, Tic, Tic...

Paper Avalanche

(09/10/2003; 10:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108444)

@ GAB

Greetings Sir GAB! I too have wondered what the intent is of TPTB by the release of the ETF. I believe that there are two possibilities (that I have been able to discern so far):

1. The ETF is a vehicle by which the POG wil be controlled in a similar fashion as futures contracts have been used to control POG for the past two decades.

2. The ETF is a vehicle by which TPTB intend to revalue physical (that they hold 99% of) such that all of the dollars that have since flowed into the stock and bond markets are able to participate in the impending stratospheric POG rise. This second theory assumes that TPTB want POG to rise to the moon and want a way to have their citizens participate as well as possibly provide another vehicle by which central / bullion banks can offset their position.

I lean toward the second theory (and it is only my guess) in that to assume that thoery #1 is correct is to also assume that the rest of the world wants to retain the dollar standard as the world reserve currency for the next two decades. The introduction of the Euro contradicts that assumption. I simply think that the US/British banks recognize the inevitable and are putting the tools in place to go along with the other 5.7 billion people of the world who are rediscovering gold as the ultimate wealth asset. Additionally, to subcribe to theory #1 is to ignore the rampant printing of dollars by the UST and the consequential inflation that must / will follow. I just do not see the rest of the world continuing to subsidize an unsustainable debt load that the US has taken on since we walked away from the Bretton Woods accord in 1971 (if my memory serves me, the Euro was conceived that same year as an alternative to what the French referred to as the US's "exhorbitant privilege" of being able to print the reserve currency at will and consume all of the rest of the world's productivity / commodities).

I think that the die is cast and that the ETF is simply a vehicle by which the dollar faction will be allowed to unwind it's short position in gold.

Do you envision any alternative theories to the two above?

PA

Paper Avalanche

(09/10/2003; 10:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108445)

Isn't Sweden a major oil producer? Article on Sweden / Euro

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A53976-2003Sep10?language=printerBelgian, I would be curious to get your take on this.

PA

Clink!

(09/10/2003; 10:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108446)

@ PA

You're thinking of Norway.
C!

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/10/2003; 10:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108447)

Sweden as a oil producer

No - we do not produce a drop. just consuming.

NEMO

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/10/2003; 11:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108448)

Oil in Sweden

To be precise - we did produce oil during WW2.
That is - oil from oil shale. I think the gov. run a couple of cars on that production. Today we have a couple of cars
running on rape-oil.
Does probably not qualify us to join the OPEC.

NEMO

(09/10/2003; 11:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108449)

@GAB

Private Chinese/Asian demand can drive this bull market single-handedly as Mr. Kosares has pointed out. I think postponing the bull is out of question. Banks dumping their "bad gold paper" into this fund is a real possibility as you say. Alternatively they may buy physical for their own account using other people's money, leaving their customers to confront a dysfunctional Comex when the pandemonium breaks. No doubt there are many possibilities...Just thinking aloud.

Melting Pot

(09/10/2003; 11:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108450)

Let's hear it for the White House speech writers!

http://tvnewslies.org/html/terror_trap.htmlIn the fifteen minutes of shame enjoyed by George W. Bush last night, the terror trap for the American psyche was expertly oiled and sprung. In that short time, speech writers had given the president an opportunity to utter the word "terror," in some form, TWENTY SEVEN times! Do the math: that's 1.8 times every single minute. Then throw in "Al Qaeda," � uttered three times, and another three references to the 9/11 attacks, - and the deed was done. Steadily, repetitiously and unashamedly, - the line between the war on Iraq and the war on terror was eradicated. Karl Rove's non sequitur strategy went off without a hitch: the invasion of Iraq was justified, the pundits applauded, and the people trembled.

Terror sells! Hit �em hard!

http://tvnewslies.org/html/terror_trap.html

Every time the US markets are in trouble and gold begins to rise the terrorist threat is unleashed upon the sheeple. Its not working a-n-y-m-o-r-e.......

See also
www.archives.gov/federal_register/executive_orders/2003.html

for executive order #13303, in which Bush exempts himself, Cheney, and their minionsfrom any legal action, regardless of what they choose to do with Iraq�s oil.

You ever notice that every time Dubya talks, the markets tank and gold rises? Maybe I'll build a chart for future investing based upon Presidential appearances. LOL

makcumka

(09/10/2003; 11:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108451)

The pimps and the trolls

Caught a glimpse of CNBC today during lunch... They had some senator as a guest, discussing the Chinese Yuan. The senator had suggested that the Yuan is the reason for all manufacturing job losses in the US because the Chinese government had been involved in manipulating the price of the Dollar on the world markets by keeping Yuan pegged artificially low to the Dollar.

Now thinking outloud...

That must be the reason for the commodities price increase. After all, if the Yuan was valued at par with the Dollar, oil would be around $4 per barrell and gold would be around $50 per ounce. (8 times cheaper). This will certainly answer all energy crisis problems and end world hunger, since the price of wheat will be so cheap, it's not even funny.

So, if the Chinese kept Yuan low, did it allow the terrorists to buy weapons to fight against the US with overvalued dollars? Is there an Al Queda - China link? Or have the Chinese exploited their population by undervaluing their labor, thus driving them into poverty? Can we ask the UN to take military action to free the Chinese people so they can fully enjoy the fruits of their labor, as the Yuan is valued at par with the Dollar?

What I would give right now to have a nice pile of FRNs to exchange for the shiny yellow stuff...

Great Albino Bat

(09/10/2003; 11:54:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108452)

Paper Avalanche: Interesting views...can you elaborate?

You wrote, regarding ETF, that one purpose might be to

"provide another vehicle by which central / bullion banks can offset their position" Could you, perhaps, be a little more specific. This is not criticism, it is a sincere desire to understand what you are saying.

Then again:

"the ETF is simply a vehicle by which the dollar faction will be allowed to unwind it's short position in gold."

How would that be accomplished?

I really do wish that the ETF were good news. So many years of witnessing only wickedness and deception, have made me very skeptical of any supposedly good news, such as capitulation of the US/UK financial block to gold. They are resolutely opposed to "going quietly", in my opinion.

I hope I am wrong!

The GAB

steady

(09/10/2003; 11:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108453)

folly? the original folly!

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1509erasmus-folly.htmlive been seeing lots of folly lately./a good read!

ORATION: An Oration of Feigned Matter, spoken by Folly in her own Person

AT WHAT RATE soever the world talks of me (for I am not ignorant what ill report Folly has got, even among the most foolish), yet that I am that she, that only she, whose deity recreates both gods and men, even this is a sufficient argument, that I no sooner stepped up to speak to this full assembly than all your faces put on a kind of new and unwonted pleasantness. So suddenly have you cleared your brows, and with so frolic and hearty a laughter given me your applause, that in truth as many of you as I behold on every side of me seem to me no less than Homer's gods drunk with nectar and nepenthe; whereas before, you sat as lumpish and pensive as if you had come from consulting an oracle. And as it usually happens when the sun begins to show his beams, or when after a sharp winter the spring breathes afresh on the earth, all things immediately get a new face, new color, and recover as it were a certain kind of youth again: in like manner, by but beholding me you have in an instant gotten another kind of countenance; and so what the otherwise great rhetoricians with their tedious and long-studied orations can hardly effect, to wit, to remove the trouble of the mind, I have done it at once with my single look.

But if you ask me why I appear before you in this strange dress, be pleased to lend me your ears, and I'll tell you; not those ears, I mean, you carry to church, but abroad with you, such as you are wont to prick up to jugglers, fools, and buffoons, and such as our friend Midas once gave to Pan. For I am disposed awhile to play the sophist with you; not of their sort who nowadays boozle young men's heads with certain empty notions and curious trifles, yet teach them nothing but a more than womanish obstinacy of scolding: but I'll imitate those ancients who, that they might the better avoid that infamous appellation of sophi or wise, chose rather to be called sophists.

more of the original folly stuff at the link

Cytek

(09/10/2003; 12:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108454)

SNOW'S name is appropriate for what he does

U.S. job growth to return as economy rebounds-Snow
Wed September 10, 2003 12:52 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday job growth would resume when the U.S. economy recovers.
"Jobs are a lagging indicator," he said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

Meanwhile .....

3Com Exits Manufacturing, Cuts 1,000 Jobs

By Ben Klayman
CHICAGO (Reuters) - 3Com Corp. said on Wednesday it planned to cut about 1,000 jobs, or almost a third of its work force, and close its only remaining manufacturing plant as it works to counter weak technology spending.

International Paper to Cut 3,000 Jobs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - International Paper Co. said on Wednesday it will cut about 3,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its global work force, over the next year as part of its previously announced $1.5 billion profit improvement plan.

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 14:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108457)

Today's COMEX action on PAPER Gold !

Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) Wednesday 9/10/03
Open $383.0 HIGH $384.2 low $379.6 Last $381.2
Settlement $381.1 Change -$1.7 Volume 47,530
Tuesday's Settle $382.8 OPEN INTEREST = 200,396
===
Looks like a lull in the storm to me.
Watch out for tomorrows action, as SPIKE and SPOT are well rested and Sir Sundeck sent me some fresh "Roo" meat!
<;-)

segel_flieger

(09/10/2003; 14:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108458)

Ramblings on Gold short positions

I see several posts here that postulate various mechanisms that Gold shorts might use to cover their positions. It's worth pointing out that Frank Veneroso is of the opinion that most of the outstanding Gold shorts associated with the hedging of Gold loans by the Central Banks have been transfered to the books of the Central Banks themselves.

If he is correct, the forces driving this Gold bull are a little different than how some see the situation;

1) There will be no Gold short covering panic as many have been anticipating.

2) The gold loaned by CBs is now effectively sold and the only way they can recover it is to buy it on the open market. (They have Gold loans and short derivative positions on their books. The Gold loans would mean they will receive Gold at some future date, while the short derivative positions mean they would have to deliver Gold at some future date. The two positions offset each other.) So technically, they haven't sold their Gold, but they have a position that is equivalent to having sold it.

3) This means the CBs have much less "ammunition" available to cap rising Gold prices that is commonly held. It will be a lack of pyhsical supply that will be responsible for rising Gold prices, not a buying panic triggered by short covering.

I personally hope Frank is right because it would mean that the coming Gold bull is much more likely to be an orderly one rather than a cataclysmic event. My feeling is that this would increase the chances that Gold will reclaim some sort of role in our current Monetary system.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/10/2003; 14:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108459)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(09/10/2003; 14:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108460)

Cytek � Snow Job

It should be no surprise that John Snow is a known liar as well as a one time mediocre CEO of a railroad company and someone of questionable integrity. His touting of the "strong dollar policy" was laughable at best because there is no way in heaven or hell that there can be a "strong dollar policy" in an environment of "competitive currency devaluation" when unemployment is rising and manufacturing jobs are fleeing offshore. His recent pathetic groveling before the Japanese and Chinese was another embarrassment for what was considered the world's last remaining superpower.

Now his stupidity comes through once again as he gives us the Wall Street line that unemployment is unimportant because it's a "lagging indicator". This "lagging indicator" has been "lagging" for three years now! Besides the unemployment data is also an indictor of past, present, and future economic activity. Sure the data shows new claims for the prior week. It also shows the number of Americans currently unemployed and those collecting benefits. It also shows the economic activity and projections for the coming quarter. One must take the time to read the weekly report completely and not just focus on the prior week's new unemployment claims. Anyway, what can one expect from a politician and bureaucrat of limited intelligence? Paul O�Neill was no great Treasury Secretary either, but in my estimation John Snow has been a great disappointment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken as the Fed will create a flood of dollars to counter the devaluation of foreign currencies. After all, how much longer can Japan continue to buy the $billions of devaluing Treasury notes being offered at auction? China with 1.3 billion people can well afford to keep the Yuan currency pegged to the dollar at a ridiculously low rate as cheap labor abounds and US manufacturing seeks out lower costs. For the life of me I cannot understand the purpose of Mr. Snow's vacation to the Far East as there was nothing to be gained except to demonstrate the weak position of the United States. I can only think that the Japanese and Chinese monetary authorities were at most amused. The dollar is toast and will continue to weaken as it must as the Fed create a flood of dollars.

- Black Blade

Solomon Weaver

(09/10/2003; 15:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108461)

Someone needs to read the fine print.

http://www.exchangetradedfunds.com/From the brief description here.....it sounds like NEW fractional reserve gold to me.

Now, when one buys a stock share...the share is simply a representation of what one owns.

When one buys an index fund, are not these funds required to go to the market and actually purchase the underlying shares?

If DEMAND for REAL gold is increasing, why would the WGC not let that demand be satified by the movement of REAL gold?

I suggest that a disclaimer must be printed boldly on the bottom of any statement listing ownership of such equities.

NOTE: THE XYZ SHARES IN YOUR FUND ARE VALUED AT THE PRICE OF GOLD, BUT AS THESE SHARES MAY NOT BE REDEEMED FOR GOLD, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF THEIR ACTUAL VALUE.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(09/10/2003; 15:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108462)

Could this work??? The Gold-Gold carry trade.

Two Exchange Traded Funds

First Fund holds 10% REAL Gold

Second Fund holds 100% REAL GOLD

Short sellers borrow shares of First Fund, sell First Fund short and invest proceeds in Second Fund...since both funds trade closely with gold...they will not diverge much...the more First Fund issues new shares, the more are borrowed by short sellers who swap for Second Fund shares.

First Fund expands their shares (new money created) but short sellers of First Fund carrying the trade to Second Fund cause Second Fund to actually purchase REAL gold in the REAL market (with the proceeds the short sellers are depositing), as this is the Mandate of Second Fund.

The purchases of REAL gold by Second Fund cause the price of gold to rise, both funds increase in value (creating margin calls). Margin calls are satified posting actual capital (the first time the short sellers own money comes into play).....

Over time a large long position is built in the 100% backed fund and an equal short position is built in the 10% backed fund.

As more fiat monies move into the trade, First Fund will be able to more agressively expand its trading liquidity...eventually in a world where some spectrum of hundreds of such funds exist (the large liquid ones structured along the lines of First Fund, and smaller tighly held ones...speak Central Banks and private hedge funds) as gold demand runs higher, there comes a time when a minority of the funds actually hold the gold, and the other funds hold the paper....then the short sellers campaign at large to show the holders of all paper how the value of the funds should not be pegged to gold....but pegged to the amount of gold in the fund.....the First Fund types (where Joe Sixpack's Broker bought him shares) collapses, and the Second Fund types buy back their shorts.

Federal_Reserves

(09/10/2003; 16:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108463)

Glad Snow went to China

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^ssec&d=cHe had to give them fair warning to float their currency before we chop them off at the nuts, and slap a tariff on them, and then hand over the business to Mexico and South America, even take some heat off of JAPAN. Never made sense to give them the business anyway until the communist dictatorship running China country collapses like the USSR. You can see the US power elite that favored China policies visibly losing their grip as US/Mexico factories shutter and our unemployment lines grow. IMHO China could implode, their stock market has been in a downtrend for quite some time and their banks full of corruption and non-performing loans. ITs a bubble.

misetich

(09/10/2003; 16:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108464)

Health Insurance Premiums Up 13.9%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51558-2003Sep9.htmlSnip:

Health insurance premiums for employees rose 13.9 percent in the past year, the biggest annual increase since 1990, according to a survey of employers released yesterday.
...............

Employers across the country attributed the higher premiums to increases in the cost of prescription drugs, hospital stays and physician services, and to efforts by health insurers to boost profits.
**********
Misetich

The costs of essential services (made at home) are rising - health, energy, food, housing

The double whammy rests with "deflation" vis a vis imported cheap goods from China, SE Asia, Japan

and asset deflation - re stocks

Of course ANOTHER headline in today's Washington Post Reads

"House Passes 4.1% Raise For Federal Employees "

Guess Price Deflators, CPI etc do not apply when you're voting for your own raise - it only applies to Seniors on minimum pension

(No deflation in sight at the ballooning DEFICIT)though on second thought maybe that is the whole game plan - A DEFLATING CURRENCY (US $) solves a lot of debt problems -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

(09/10/2003; 16:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108465)

A CALL TO CONTEST! A CALL TO CONTEST!! A CALL TO CONTEST!!!

Gandalf.....Ohhhh Gaaaaaaaaaadallf. Wizard of wizards. Bringer of the Profound. Contest Master of the Table Round. Here we are assembled in our Cause in Full Realization............Can we do something about those trumpets?? And now you've added cymbals and tambourines!! Someone! Someone, please tell them to hold it down. I know we get excited about these Contests here at this Mighty Oaken Table, but must we always have these infernal trumpets?? Who approved the rest of the noise makers?? You know my ears to be fragile, o wizardrous one......... What's that? The trumpets are "essential" you say? The Hobbits love the Trumpets?? But they'll negotiate the cymbals and tambourines?

All right, all right, we'll talk about it later, but can we put a cork in it for five minutes or so until I get this announcement out? Thank you, Gandalf. Thank you, Hobbits. Now...Where was I? The contest.....

Ahem....

Now about this Contest for our Fifth Anniversary.

The Question to Be Answered is This:

Since gold hit its low of $252 in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to the present price (in the $380 range).

Question: Is this significant rise enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?" Yes or No. If "Yes!" why so? If "No" why not?

Please enter headline in the subject box as follows:

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.******** or ********The New Bull Market in Gold? No.*******

The winner of this essay contest will receive a one ounce US Eagle. There will two runners-up who will receive a Wilhelm II German 20 Mark each.

First time posters will receive a U.S. Silver Eagle for making their first post a contest entry. Once you make your post, please notify Marie (marie@usagold.com) of your first-time post entry. We will check names, so don't try to fool us on this one!!

The entry must consist of at least 25 words. All entries must be posted to the board by the Table Round's birthdate, September 20, 2003 at 12 noon Mountain Time.

ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract on Monday September 22nd. All entries must be posted by Sunday, September 21st at high noon Mountain Time. In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain 25 words on why you consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource.

Please surround your price guess with $$$$$$ dollar signs. The winner -- who will be the closest guess to the actual closing price -- will receive a one half ounce U.S. Eagle. There will be two runners-up prizes -- one British sovereign each.

Gandalf the White will serve as Contest (Wizard) Master......

Let the contest begin!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY O MIGHTY OAKEN TABLE OF YORE!!

What's all that noise in the corner of the Great Hall, my wizardrous friend. The Hobbits are dancing, you say? They're Happy?? They want the trumpets.....Please, hold off......let us make our exit post haste..........What's that you say, Marie? I have to pay the Royal Tambourine Maker for all the Hobbits' tambourines? I didn't know we had a Royal Tambourine Maker? What do you mean I've been in a oppressive mood all day........HA! I don't understand why we need a Royal.....

Voices fade down the corridor.

From deep in the bowels of the Castle comes the voice of the wizard.......

Good luck to ALLLLLLLL........

Cometose

(09/10/2003; 16:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108466)

JOBS?????????

Watched Gangs of NY last night with my 16 year old, Christopher ....(sad commentary on how things can get when an Economy starts to suck, watch out ) Christopher reminds me of the hero in TOP GUN....after his buddy died in the accident , Tom Cruise would go up on exercises but he would not engage....( no commitment, no hope , no why /reason)Christopher loves music and wants to write and play guitar songs. Christopher's little brother Josh who is 14 likes to play as well ; he is very good as well, but Christopher is impulive and right brained and Josh is linear and fits very well into the left brained school system. I recently had to split them up so Josh could have a better shot a growing up in a normal way .....sent Josh to have time out in Arkansas ( he follows Christopher too much; I told him that they were like matches and gasoline together) for a while.
Last week Christopher went to a party and introduced himself to a young lady who was married....and her husband and Christopher had an altercation..wherein the other young man broke a beer bottle on the side of Christopher's face and they got into it a little until Christopher realized he needed a hospital....He's fine now and everything's back to normal .....Guess his grandparents on my ex side heard about it and decided to send a GREETING CARD to console him... The following was the postscript....
"We love you very much ! Hope like your new school . Miss You ! Finish school only 2 or 3 years so you get education or you'll never get good job." They are retired....If they only knew......that in 2 or 3 years , there may not be any jobs......and if Christopher happens to do a Woody Guthrie with his guitar for the next ten years , he might be just fine ......did I tell you that Christopher isn't a worrier..

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 16:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108467)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !! The FIFTH Anniversary CONTESTS !!

YES, SIR MK, we know that the Essay Contest FIRST PRIZE is an one ounce USA GOLD Eagle !
(That is why the Hobbits are dancing !)
<;-)

steady

(09/10/2003; 17:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108468)

noisemakers,

MK. just wait till the hobbits start with there chant as gold rises! ZU BA ZOOM! ZU BA ZOOM! ZU BA ZOOM zubazoom! you wont be able to hear!

Belgian

(09/10/2003; 17:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108469)

Re:

@ PA: No oil in Sweden (NEMO)
Sweden (Denmark and UK) will change their mind on EU (EMU) if and when their respective currencies are/could be detoriating and they can't profit from EMU (euro) cover !

@ MP : I do remain very suspicious about the EGF (equity gold fund). Gold shouldn't be *paperized* !
If...IFFFF the gold-"statistics" (WGC-etc...) are correct and there is effectively a yearly shortage of 1,000 tonnes in the offer/demand equation...why must more physical gold for investment, be taken out of the market, with a new (?) paper-instrument ??? Why is the WGC organizing such a supposedly, promessing, gold-uptake when their funding goldmines still have more than 2,000 tonnes in forward sales (hedges) ???

etc...etc...

Paper Avalanche

(09/10/2003; 17:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108470)

@ GAB

After your last posting I spent quite some time trying to think how the ETF would allow the gold shorts (read "JPM") to cover their position. I came up with a number of possible scenarios / theories but none of them stood up to logic or reason. To that end, I humbly submit that, barring an explanation by another poster here on how such ETF vehicles may provide an "out" for the cabal, that I may have come to a hasty conclusion regarding the possible intent and use of the ETF by TPTB.

I am open to any thoughts, ideas or theories on why the ETF is now being rolled out to US, UK, France and Hong KOng over the next 60 days.

Being a recreational student of history, I cannot help but notice the similarity between:

a) the universal adoption of the ETF in said markets above and

b) when the industrialized nations of the world, within 12 to 24 months of each other all collectively decided on or around 1913 that it was time for each to institute a central bank. Thus the paper money concept was born without any alternative that might short circuit the plan.

Are we witnessing a comparable (and as significant) transition that we simply do not completely understand at this point.

With great respect to you,

PA

Goldbug 1

(09/10/2003; 19:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108471)

Commercials Short Positions.

Can anyone with a better brain that mine put a positive spin on the following fact.
Net Commercials position is at its greatest Net Short position in the last 20 years.

Liberty Head

(09/10/2003; 20:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108472)

RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts

I won't claim to have a better brain than you or anyone else, none the less I'm willing to take a shot at your question.

Short positions are more speculative by nature.
Occassional pull backs in the POG are inevitable and frequently follow on the heals of a run up.

Secondly, shorts are children of debt and margin.
They seek the Land of the Lotus.
Leverage is the song of the Sirens here.
Many ships wreck in these waters.

Hold physical, go long and enjoy the show.

Best Wishes

erayboy

(09/10/2003; 20:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108473)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/dowgold1900log.gifSince April, 2001, GOLD has been in a NEW BULL MARKET. While there are many quantifiable measures to verify that fact, I offer the chart of the DOW/GOLD RATIO:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/dowgold1900log.gif

This clearly illustrates that the price of GOLD hit its low point at the same time the US stock market (as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials) was peaking. In this case, the ratio was equal to about 44; in other words, it required 44 ounces of GOLD to "buy" the DOW. Previous high ratio points occurred in 1929 (ratio equaled about 19) and 1966 (ratio equaled 29). Each time this ratio peaked and then turned down, it continued down until hitting a bottom wherein the price of the DOW was less than 2 ounces of GOLD.

This historical perspective is evidence that as previously, the mania in paper stocks and the revulsion of the barbaric relic, GOLD, peaks at the START of a GOLD BULL MARKET, and hits a low at the END. We have past the starting point and are now embarked on the next/current GOLD BULL.

QED.

a nation of one

(09/10/2003; 20:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108474)

the candle flame and POG

Naturally, as the Dark Knight of this gracious round table, I know some strange tales. One night recently a witch knocked on my castle's massive door. "You're a dark knight," she said, "so you are my friend." "Not really," I replied. "For me darkness is only a metaphor. I am not devoted to it like you are. And I never consort with witches." Nonetheless, she persisted. And since she was pretty, I let her in. I put her in the guest room that hangs out over the mote. She would be safe there and harmless. Before nightfall, as my guests sometimes do, she offered to display her knowledge of the Dark Powers. She took one of the dinner candles, and, placing it on the table in front of her, she stared at its flame intently and moved the palms of her beautifully-fingered hands, circling the flame with them pseudo-magically and chanting an incantation. "Watch the flame," she said, trying to sound mysterious, "I will lengthen it and shorten it just by thinking about it, with the power of my mind." And as she worked, the flame grew longer. It came back to its normal shape quickly, and then it got shorter. She glanced at me strongly, her left eyebrow lifting. "Ah!" She said. "Do you see? My powers over the darkness are very great." I said nothing, continuing to calmly drink my tea, which my cook, Herb, served after dinner. Having studied the greatest of all the Dark Arts -Science!- I understood perfectly what was happening. There was no draft in the place. Yet the flame shortened and lengthened in turns, seemingly without any reason. But of course there was a reason, and it wasn't witchcraft. The skill of this �witch� consisted solely of tricks she had learned in The Lonely Cad's School of Elegant Dark Magic, taught by that old, gray-haired rogue, the Wizard, Bam Boozle. The flame of any candle will flicker, if people are near, because there is breathing, and that moves the air, and it will also lengthen and shorten, given enough patience, especially if you hold your hands right, to form a chimney around it, which will enable an updraft, which will make the flame lengthen. Move your hands differently, and the flame will shorten. Get an intense expression on your face and appear to concentrate, while closing your hands around it, and the flame may get very long indeed, and your audience will be mesmerized. No magic was involved. Yet all my other dinner guests were enthralled. Betting commenced, on how long she could make the flame become, and how short, and how soon, and so on. Before the night was done, she had gathered some nice winnings. And before the dawn, so had I. �Now, here's the moral. When POG goes way up, then falls back, a number of things are possible. One of these possible things is a steadily decreasing oscillation, usually falling a bit lower from the previous high at each top, and recovering a bit higher at each subsequent bottom, forming what chartists call "a triangle." There is nothing mysterious about this. And there is nothing necessarily dark about the chartists. A triangle is merely one of the possible patterns of chart movement which humans can perceive -and which really can occur- particularly after a significant price movement. There are forces that cause it, and the main one of these is the behavior of people. Another factor is that stability in POG is not presently an aspect of its character, though there have been times when it has been, but this too is a function of human behavior. Whether POG has any behavior of its own, the answer must be no, it cannot. It is all caused by humans, one way or another. So now, as the triangle forms, and the trading pattern of POG narrows, what is likely to happen? Is the direction likely to change? Or is the direction likely to stay the same as before? It must be that the probability is greater that it will resume its movement in the same direction it was going before, and that a reversal, typically, is less probable. Because of this, it is naturally to be expected in most cases that POG, once having begun to form a triangle, will ultimately resume its movement in the same direction it was already going, and before the triangle is complete --that is, before the trading narrows to nothing, since it can't keep on narrowing forever and ever, because, if it did, it would form a horizontal line, and it doesn't do that, although, if you lived forever, sooner or later it probably would-- a point is always going to be reached where trading will cause it to extend out of the triangle in one direction or the other. There are a lot of people each of whom knows this. Many are eager. Right now sentiment is strong. Therefore the movement will probably also be strong. Given these conditions, the most likely result is that the price won't just extend out of the triangle, it will �pop� out. Then it may continue, or it may form another pattern, possibly a triangle. A triangle can be sort of like a breather, as commitments gather their forces. It can be like a breather, when traders are questioning. And it can be like a breather, when external events interrupt POG's movement, as has happened recently. POG is trading in at least two triangles right now. One goes back to the high of February, and the other goes back only to the early hours of this morning (Wednesday, September 10, 2003.) The former will have to extend out -and it will probably �pop� out- one way or the other before the end of the year, but it could move out sooner, perhaps even this week or next week. It can do this in several ways. And it could happen any time between now and then. That's why predicting it is iffy. The other triangle, today's, will have to end some time tomorrow, on Thursday. What it will do after that is uncertain, but it will probably go up to some extent (this is a guess based on what I've talked about here), and it could start another triangle, which would be good, because that would mean it is probably strengthening some more. That's what it did at the beginning of this year, on its way to around 390. The comparison of chart triangles to a candle flame is merely to show that even when things transpire in ways that are entirely natural, they are sometimes thought to be beyond the realm of human understanding, which -especially when within the boundaries of human activity- they are not. Anyway, the witch's name is Pollysandra, and she has decided to stay until the middle of next week. This morning she offered to clean the moat, which I think is a good sign. She has said nothing about the fact that all of my other dinner guests were historical figures which I had conjured to life entirely by means of my own imagination, and then injected them into her conscious awareness using my telepathy, solely for the purpose of my and her entertainment, for which I did not use any smoke or mirrors. Now that, in my estimation, is real magic.

DummyANI

(09/10/2003; 20:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108475)

Japanese commercial Banking default is likely becoming to appear

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/SNIP:
FSA To Beef Up Budget For Potential Bank Recapitalizations
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Financial Services Agency is ready to increase the budget for potential injections of public funds into undercapitalized banks by 2 trillion yen as part of a wider move to reinforce its ability to respond to a financial crisis

Comment:
.

Seeing Japan from outside, one cannot understand why Japanese Government is devaluating a Yen, for Japan has a large trade surplus. This is caused by the absolute size of a national economy.

Japan experienced land-bubble, stock-bubble, and bond-bubble at this sequence.
According to the land-bubble, 10 trillion dollars were disappeared. This is nearly 250 percent of GDP.
According to the stock-bubble, 8 trillion dollars were disappeared. This is nearly 200 percent of GDP.
Current size of Japanese stock market is only 3 trillion dollars.
According to the bond-bubble, 20 billion dollars are disappeared from June 2003 to September 2003.
Stock-adjustments about Bank-books have been finished between 1995 to 2003.
Japanese commercial Banks are selling their stocks, and they hold the minimum stock-shares at present
Foolish Japanese commercial Bankers bought Government Bonds to the 0.46 percent-yield, and at present they hold nearly 0.6 trillion dollars of JGB.
The size of JGB-market is nearly 6 trillion dollars. This is nearly 150 percent of GDP.
On the other side, Japanese trade surplus is between 2 percent and 3 percent of GDP. This is very small problem from a national financial view.
Japanese land-bubble has not been adjusted at all by the Government, and the net loss of commercial banks is predicted at nearly 1 trillion dollars in book-keeping.

Very dark Yen perspective. Buy a gold, sell a Yen. D-ANI.

Husky

(09/10/2003; 20:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108476)

Goldbug 1 - Commercials Short Positions

Sure. The Commercials are also dead wrong once every 20 years or so. Your clue that this is the case right now is that their position is so unusually large. Things are not normal - so why should we ignore that fact and conclude that they are normal?

turkey hunter

(09/10/2003; 20:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108477)

Market can take tad rise in bank sales

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/11Sep2003_biz76.htmlA small rise in bullion sales under any successor to the current European Central Bank Gold Agreement could be absorbed by the gold market, a survey of market participants has found..........

erayboy

(09/10/2003; 20:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108478)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CPI-Gold.htm

An objective assessment of the PRICE OF GOLD is required to determine if we are, indeed, in a NEW BULL MARKET. In order for GOLD to be in a BULL MARKET CYCLE, it must achieve a LOW PRICE and then rise for about a decade. The determination of the LOW PRICE POINT is required to determine if the BULL MARKET has begun.

The PRICE OF GOLD has varied greatly in the past. In order to smooth some of the fluctuations, let's employ a chart of the "CPI ADJUSTED GOLD PRICE" (bottom of the page):
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CPI-Gold.htm

It indicates that while the PRICE OF GOLD was relatively stable from about 1810 to 1910, it varied greatly during several cycles in the 20th century. The low of 1923-29 to the high of 1935-40 was the first BULL MARKET CYCLE. The low of 1970 to the high of 1980 was the second BULL MARKET CYCLE. I will show that the low of 2001 marked the beginning of the third/current BULL MARKET CYCLE IN GOLD.

Using rough approximations, the decade prior to the BULL MARKET CYCLES was characterized by a drop in the PRICE OF GOLD. In the first cycle, it dropped from about ~$600+ to ~$200, a ratio of ~3. In the second cycle, it dropped from ~$500 to ~$200, a ratio of ~2.5. In the third cycle, it dropped from ~$800 (excluding the spike) to ~$250, a ratio of ~3.

As can be seen from the first two cycles, a ratio of previous HIGH to the starting point LOW must be on the order of 2.5 to 3. The LOW achieved in 2001 meets that criteria with a ratio of ~3.

Please note that once achieving the LOW POINT in the cycle, the price has historically risen to the final price through a series of steps. However, having risen 50% from the LOW POINT, it has never revisited that LOW POINT. We have already risen 50% above the low of 2001. Therefore, it can be concluded that since we have achieved an acceptable LOW PRICE POINT and risen sufficiently above that point, that we have, indeed, entered a new/current BULL MARKET CYCLE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD. Furthermore, we can expect the price to continue to rise through the end of this decade.

QED.

mikal

(09/10/2003; 21:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108479)

@ANOO

Do you think you could enlist Pollysandra to clean the moat around the FED bldg? Maybe she could get someone to come clean on how much gold has left Fort Knox.
With your telepathy, have you sensed that she has the Midas Touch or any relation to Dame Fortune or Lady Luck?

a nation of one

(09/10/2003; 21:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108480)

to mikal

No way! She ain't leavin' here till she's done.

a nation of one

(09/10/2003; 21:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108481)

to mikal

As for Lady Luck, she may be. There has been a shift in the winds of fortune around here lately.

DummyANI

(09/10/2003; 21:39:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108482)

RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts msg#: 108471

http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.htmlAnother aspect of Commercial Shorts

GDP of USA is nearly double of Japan.

Open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, that of COMEX is 380 tonnes at present.

A national economy is growing over past twenty years. If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 886 tonnes.

D-ANI.

DummyANI

(09/10/2003; 21:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108483)

RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts msg#: 108471 -2

http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.htmlAnother aspect of Commercial Shorts (I am sorry COMEX data is updated)

GDP of USA is nearly double of Japan.

Open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, that of COMEX is 850 (this data right) tonnes at present.

A national economy is growing over past twenty years. If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 886 tonnes.

Last Feb., open interest of TOCOM soared 495 tonnes, the trading volume was 525 tonnes per day.(Feb. 05,2003)

If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 990 tonnes, its trading volume will be 1050 tonnes per day at a peak.

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 22:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108484)

Official FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS rules ! <;-)

TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---
TWO Contests for our celebration of the Fifth Anniversary of the USAGOLD Forum !!
TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!
TWO separate groups of GOLDEN Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY answering statement of at least twenty-five words.
Based on the history of: Since gold hit its low of $252. in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to the present price (in the $380 range) ---

Question: Is this significant rise enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?" "Yes or No?" If "Yes!" why so? If "No" why not?

The best, "ANSWER to either "YES", or "NO" ESSAY wins an one ounce U.S. GOLD Eagle, while two "Runners-up" will both receive an old Wilhelm II German 20 Mark Goldpiece.

IN ADDITION --- All Essay Contest Entries from "First time Forum posters" will receive an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle for making their first post a contest entry. Once you make your post, please notify Marie via email at (marie@usagold.com) of your first-time post entry, and supply Real Name and shipping address for the Silver Eagle. We will check the list of names, and the memory of the Ol�e Wizard, so don't try to fool us on this one!!

Remember the entry must consist of at least 25 words. All entries must be posted to the board by the Table Round's Birthdate, September 20, 2003, at 12 noon Mountain Time, AND only one entry will be accepted per poster.

ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract on Monday September 22nd, TOGETHER WITH a short statement of, "Why you consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource."

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-half ounce U.S. GOLD Eagle. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an old GOLDEN British Sovereign.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of Monday, the 22nd of September, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $390.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$390.0$$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON (12:00) on Sunday, September 21st, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ---- as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain 25 words on "Why you consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource!!! <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS begin !
<;-)

mikal

(09/10/2003; 22:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108485)

@DummyANI

I doubt U.S. GDP is double Japan's GDP. The U.S. exaggerates GDP by using an exclusive(not international) accounting standard similar to pro forma corporate accounting. Some GDP tricks: including government expenditures and inflating capital expenditures up to 4X using the "deflators" argument.

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 22:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108486)

I KNEW IT !!!!! ------ ANOO is ALSO a Wizard !!!

a nation of one (9/10/03; 20:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 108474)
the candle flame and POG
===
and a Great Storyteller also.
Thanks
<;-)

mikal

(09/10/2003; 22:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108487)

Surplus of fraud for the fat cats

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr091103.shtmlSURPLUS OF LIES AND TAX CUTS
By: Ed Henry -Excerpts:
"When they had them, Republicans and Democrats alike were anxious to tell you what great things they had accomplished, but no one told you where the surpluses came from. That was a big secret."

"Surpluses have not "disappeared" as so many of the spin doctor propagandists want you to believe. Since 1983, when payroll taxes were excessively increased, American workers have been paying substantially more than either Social Security or Medicare need annually.
The same is true of many other entitlements, except that some, like Unemployment, are drawing heavily on their bogus bonds in their bogus trust funds and the public is again paying a tax that was paid previously by employers but stolen. We are being double billed right now, today.
Social Security alone, your payroll taxes, produced a $98.7 billion surplus in fiscal 2001 and an $89 billion surplus in fiscal 2002 despite high unemployment; i.e., fewer workers contributing. All stolen by the Beltway Bandits.
The same CBO "testimony" of January, 2001, predicted a $3.7 trillion surplus from entitlements over the next decade. George W. Bush has done nothing to reduce these taxes.
While most economists agree that consumer spending is one of the keys to economic recovery, George W. Bush has done little to put money in the average man's pocket. All he ever had to do was cut payroll taxes and it would have put more than a hundred billion per year back into the economy. Do you think $105 billion in the hands of workers in fiscal 2002 would have stimulated the economy?
He could also have cut other entitlement overcharges that, combined with Social Security and Medicare, amount to about $150 billion to $200 billion a year ripped off and spent by the government.
Instead, the federal government continues with its game of pretending to "borrow" this money in a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, Tyco and other private sector crooks look like children at play. The fraud and deceit involved here totals $2.8 trillion, 42 percent of the national debt. The entire "Intragovernmental Holdings" portion of the debt is fraudulent and composed of nothing more than double taxation markers with interest added.
This is the major problem, but the Bush administration has produced even more economic instability.
Fiscal Irresponsibility
After cutting taxes and knowing the nation was in recession because the stock market investment bubble had burst, fully aware that tax receipts for the coming years would be less, the Bush administration went right ahead a planned for even larger budgets.
In fiscal 2002, when Bush's own Office of Management and Budget (OMB) predicted that receipts would be $1.85 trillion, the administration went right ahead and planned a budget of $2.01 trillion.
In fiscal 2003, the OMB predicted receipts of only $1.84 trillion, even less than the preceding year, but the Bush administration went ahead with a $2.14 trillion budget, $130 billion more than last year.
Any other organization faced with the same shortfalls would be cutting expenses, employees, and discretionary spending, but not the federal government. They pretend to have no waste and simply plan to borrow whatever additional money they want. And they call it "running a deficit" and treat it as though it was no problem.
Originally, when the budget was approved, the Bush administration was planning to run a $304 billion deficit, but that changed when receipts were even less than expected due to increasing unemployment and a sluggish economy.
Just a few weeks ago, we were told that the deficit for fiscal 2003 would be around $455 billion, but that also changed due to another unforeseen circumstance.
The bond market is having troubles. The government finds itself unable to legitimately borrow as much money as the borrowholics would like. Investors are less willing to loan the government money under what has been described as "the perfect storm" in the bond market. Now, the deficit is predicted to be closer to $400 billion and most of the back room researchers are putting next year's anticipated deficit of $475-to-$500 billion on the monitors for millionaire news readers like Wolf Blitzer to mouth for you.
Hey, no one should have expected the bond market and the government's unique ability to borrow honestly from investors to last forever. Eventually, these investors realize that it's the taxpayers who must pay them back and the people are about tapped out. When they no longer feel that treasuries are "the safest investment in the world" they will invest elsewhere. Other than offshore investment, this could be the reason Wall Street seems to be doing better today.
Are we on the road to federal bankruptcy? As of Friday, September 5th, the national debt has gone up $584 billion. That's the real deficit because it includes the money stolen from entitlements (above) and we've still got more than three weeks to go in the fiscal year. Greenspeak is strangely silent on all of this."

"George W. Bush is being very miserly with the billions he's borrowed and now wants $87 billion more to carry on the war on terrorism. And Congress is about to vote themselves a pay increase.
It would be funny if it wasn't so nauseating. And most local governments still don't blame Bush and his henchmen for their predicament. It's a classic case of the emperor's clothes."

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 22:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108488)

$$$$$$390.0 $$$$$$$

"Why do I consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource?
---
I consider this TABLEROUND to be far more than a resource !! Afterall, as Sir Slingshot has told you all, I LIVE in a small corner of the upper level of this Castle, and the TABLEROUND is my opportunity to meet and hear many wise and talented Knights and Ladies (from all around this small little orb) express their THOUGHTS, stories, ideas, plans and fears. Many travelers have passed through the Castle and stopped by the TABLEROUND for a time. Only a relative small number of those visitors have stepped forth to express their feelings on the subject of discussion, GOLD. BUT, those that have, are remembered. A fair number, have made personal contact and become what I consider friends. You know who you are! GOLDHEARTS all, I am pleased to be among their numbers. I look forward to more of the Forum LURKERS to take that first step and join in the comradship !
The TABLEROUND is my HOME(PAGE) and SIR MK, my friend !
Thank you USAGOLD, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you, Forum !
<;-)

DummyANI

(09/10/2003; 23:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108489)

@mikal (9/10/03; 22:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 108485)

http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.html
I estimate that USA-GDP is nearly 10 trillion dollars, and Japanese nominal GDP is nearly 4 trillion dollars.

COMEX max volume was 120909 contracts ( at May 20,2003) within a last year, this was nearly 376 tonnes of paper-gold. Yesterday, COMEX open interest was 283325 contracts. This is nearly 881 tonnes.

Yesterday, open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, this is nearly half size of COMEX.

Last Feb., open interest of TOCOM soared 495 tonnes, the trading volume was 525 tonnes per day.(Feb. 05,2003). This was a 390 dollar per ounce day.

If Japanese gold-futures Market-size is applied to COMEX,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 990 tonnes, its trading volume will be 1050 tonnes per day at a peak-trading. This is a smart selling day.

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 23:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108490)

ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTo be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
---
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or Prognostication.
Come on in!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/10/2003; 23:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108491)

A chart of where the GIANTS play ! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GSOMETHING is about to POP from this "chop" range !
BUT, LOOK at the VOLUME today. WOW.
<;-)

Zhisheng

(09/10/2003; 23:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108492)

$$$420.0$$$

With apologies to Walt Kelly of yore.As The White One affirms, this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� is far more than a resource. It is a mighty oracle: 'Mighty Oaken Table'==>'Might and Main', and, 'as Maine goes, so goes the Nation!'

ski

(09/11/2003; 00:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108493)

Worth noting...

Just a couple of things worth noting IMHO

1. Silver lease rates are on the rise.

2. Gold and gold mining stocks made a nice move yesterday. However, silver and silver mining stocks had larger PERCENTAGE moves.

3. Yesterdays silver move was quite UNUSUAL. At the NY open, silver went straight up by about fifteen cents and just held that level for the entire session. This unusual move suggests that someone was in complete control of this market at that time. ??

slingshot

(09/11/2003; 00:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108494)

$$$$$$ 393.3$$$$$$

One only has to read the posts of those who sit at this
"Mighty Oaken Table of Yore" to realise it is a valuable and important resource. It provides direction and explanations to trouble minds in this time of financial and investment tension. A Table where you do not sit alone but are surrounded by Men Of Wisdom,who see the world as it truly is. When others begin their search, they will find this "Mighty Oaken Table of Yore". Solid as the wood from which it was made.

Slingshot---------------<>

Druid

(09/11/2003; 00:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108495)

segel_flieger (9/10/03; 14:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 108458)

"I personally hope Frank is right because it would mean that the coming Gold bull is much more likely to be an orderly one rather than a cataclysmic event. My feeling is that this would increase the chances that Gold will reclaim some sort of role in our current Monetary system."

Druid: If in fact an orderly transition were to take place, then any concept of a "free market" has always been a pipe dream fostered by many a great minds and institutions. What is becoming ever more visible is that there is no honor among thieves which could lead to its own set of problems. Several great minds at this forum have analyzed and continue to analyze the political, financial and economic aspects that make up this story at this point in history. Based on these insights and my own research, I've concluded, that we are in for one hell of an interesting future. Just the sheer daily volume of physical gold being traded put out by LBMA some years ago would suggest a MAJOR change is coming. Trade blocks are forming and realigning which has its own cause and effect outcome for all parties involved. I personally would like to just see a "free market" price in gold excluding any monetary involvement as this would once again soil the concept of what gold ownership is all about. Remember, "the Deal" involved trading real finite physical items with a paper component as a means to an end and now we are approaching that end. I don't think new additional paper alchemy will solve the problem, it might slow it down some but not solve it. I hope some of these ramblings add to the cauldron.

Operative

(09/11/2003; 01:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108496)

The 27.5 Percent Factor

Stupid is as Stupid Believes.
Congress is going to punish those bad Chinese by sticking it to "them" with a 27.5 percent tax. The crowds cry for justice! How unfair to use cheap labor! Americans are losing jobs, factories are closing, or worse yet, moving to China. This must stop. Congress rides to the rescue, or not.

It would seem to this country boy that what Congress is really doing is quite something else. (Like anyone with a brain cell left would think that Congress would do anything that did not line thier pockets) By passing the proposed 27.5 tariff Congress has found a way to add a whole lot of money to the stressed out US Budget. Will Americans stop buying stuff made in China? Hardly. The made in China goods can easily add 30 percent to thier cost at your local China-Mart Store and still sell for less than comparable American made products. However, this tax will bring billions into the government coffers and guess who will pay this new tax?
(hint: it wont be the folks from China)

Operative

(09/11/2003; 01:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108497)

Advisory To Those Who Sail On Golden Pond

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3420613There appears to be a change in the weather but no warning is to be issued as those tuned in are of the salty type of sailor. Article states there is a differant attitude with the latest price advance of gold.

My comment: It's About Time!!

Operative

(09/11/2003; 01:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108498)

Special Delivery For R Powell & Ski

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$silver,plua[pa][da][f!3!0.03!]&pnf=yA graphic representation of "Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining"

Enjoy

Operative

(09/11/2003; 02:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108499)

The Cries of the Carnival Barkers Begins

http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3424210≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsStep Right Up! Gaze with wonder at one of the best investments ever presented to all mankind! Once only the Rich & Famous owned it, some say the gods of yesterage fought over it, NOW is your chance of a lifetime...get your gold PAPER here! Step Right Up. You sir, You in the back of the crowd! Yes YOU! I hear the clinking of gold coins in your pockets. Would you like to trade those heavy coins for light as air paper gold?

Operative

(09/11/2003; 02:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108500)

With Job Losses, More Homeowners Late on Their Mortgage Payments

http://info.mgnetwork.com/printthispage.cgi?url=http%3A//ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA4HLZDGKD.html&oaspagename=www.tbo.com/ap/story.htmℑ=tbologo80x60.jpgOne would have thought with all those home refinancing loans people could better afford to make those lower house payments. Ok, if not lower payments then certainly with all the cash equity they pulled from thier homes they made a couple extra payments right? Afraid not.

Snip:

With Job Losses, More Homeowners Late on Their Mortgage Payments
By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - More homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments in the last quarter as job losses put a strain on some households' budgets.
The seasonally adjusted percentage of mortgage payments 30 or more days past due for all home loans rose to 4.62 percent in the April to June quarter, up sharply from 4.52 percent in the first three months of this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported Wednesday in its quarterly survey. The survey covers roughly 34 million mortgage loans.
The second quarter's delinquency rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2002, when the delinquency rate was 4.66 percent. The delinquency rate does not include loans that are in the process of foreclosure.
"The delinquency uptick we've seen here is related to unemployment," said Doug Duncan, the association's chief economist. The economy lost 181,000 jobs during the April to June quarter.

Belgian

(09/11/2003; 03:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108501)

Sweden....

A "political" murder for the choice of a "currency" !!!
This is something relevant to ponder about.

Knallgold

(09/11/2003; 04:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108502)

Nothing has changed,ETF

Operative (9/11/03; 02:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 108499)

Who said the ETF is bullish for Gold?I'm with bat on that.See the link from Operative.As soon as possible, the "new" gold is derivatized again by the shorts.Damned,I'm sick of it.Maybe we will never get a free Gold market-did we really get an official promise from the euro faction for FREEGOLD?.We still lack credibility with our theories.

The Invisible Hand

(09/11/2003; 04:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108503)

Sweden

http://www.ticon.net/~lt/latin.htmlWe have at least one Swedish co-poster on this site. His/her handle is nemo me lacessit impune.

Here's from the link:
This latin term, often associated with mourning bands and Police Memorial Day, means literally; "No one injures (attacks) me with impunity". The motto of the Order of the Thistle. It was first used on the coins of James VI. of Scotland (James I. of England). How it became associated with the badge mourning band is unclear, however, those of Scottish and Irish descent, who held positions in the ranks of police departments over the years, may well have been the influence.

Renny

(09/11/2003; 04:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108504)

asset valuation

I know that over time an object's 'value' may change but
putting that aside for the moment, how would one value
one's assets in terms of gold? Especially given that the $
price of gold fluctuates all the time what with inflation
and all. I've heard that a good suit is 1 ounce. But how
about everything else? From a loaf of bread to a tank of
gas to your tv/stereo to a book collection to a vehicle to
a house, etc. Can one more or less value these things in
gold?

I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?

Renny

misetich

(09/11/2003; 05:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108505)

GM calls on US to lobby over yen

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479724682&p=1012571727108Snip:

General Motors, the world's largest carmaker, has called on the US government to focus attention on Japan over its intervention to depress the yen rather than the Chinese renminbi, currently subject of high-profile lobbying by Washington.
...............
"The country [Washington] should be focused on is Japan," he told the Financial Times. "We have shared with all members of the administration our view that they really need to focus their efforts on the Japanese."
..............
However, Mr Wagoner said the US automotive industry, one of the country's biggest employers, was suffering from imports from Japan because of the artificially weak yen. "If the yen moves 20 per cent it is a massive delta [change] in profit margin [for the Japanese]," he said. "It is a huge deal."
************
Misetich

Tears everywhere as US corporations fail to match rival competitors

US officials have claimed both China and Japan have/are "manipulating" their currencies YET it was Greenspan, Robert Rubin (Houdini would be proud of Mr. Rubin disappearing act from the limelight) trumpting up the STRONG US $ POLICY

The reckoning of ill policies that led to unsastainable imbalances is just around the corner

Protectionism tacticts will backfire as the global economic landscape has changed - as countries and their economies are interlinked globally

Rest assured that the strong lobby power will succeed and the US $ will continue its descend

Can you imagine the NERVOUS FEELING of those investors whose investments are in US $ - pity those global CB's who have billions and billions of a deflating currency - US $

Wonder what alterarnative exist? ...hint...hint..

PHYSICAL GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/11/2003; 05:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108506)

SWEDEN

Regarding the resent tragic event in Sweden - some input.
It is said in todays news that a couple of witnesses saw the killer, during approx. 15 min. before the assassination, walking around in the shopping aria - wawering with a knife.
And before stabbing - tried to grabb Lindh�s purse.
If one is to speculate about the motive, one would come to the conclution of a lunatic.

NEMO

misetich

(09/11/2003; 05:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108507)

The Neatest Thing about That $87 Billion -Bush and congressional leaders plan to treat the Iraq spending as if it were off-budget, pretending they're not creating red ink

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2003/nf20030910_2527_db045.htmSnip:

Time to follow Alice for another quick trip down Washington's rabbit hole. Just take a look at what's about to happen with President Bush's request for $87 billion to continue U.S. military operations and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bush will get the money from Congress, all right. But that's where things will begin to get strange. The President and congressional leaders are going to try to make $87 billion in federal spending disappear. How? By treating it as if it were off-budget spending.
................
This is an accounting gimmick that would shame even Enron. "We will hold down spending," Bush and GOP leaders on Capitol Hill will say. But next to that boast will be a little imaginary asterisk that says, "For everything, that is, but Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, a fistful of trust funds, and the war in Iraq." In truth, the government will spend more than $1.3 trillion next year -- close to twice the discretionay-spending target -- on stuff that doesn't count in Washington's debates over fiscal responsibility.
............
REAL DEBT. Watch for Bush to claim by the end the year that he held discretionary outlays to a 4% hike, even though spending will go up by close to 15%. The White House and Congress will just pretend it didn't happen.

And how will Uncle Sam pay for all these extra burdens? With real money that Treasury will have to borrow, creating real debt that your kids will be paying off for the rest of their lives.
*************
Misetich

Off budget - discretionary spending - mumble jumble . The REAL DEFICIT - REAL DEBT - must be astronomical. The pressure is intensifying and the lid ready to explode as economic performance falters below levels to sustain the debt bubble created

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/11/2003; 05:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108508)

The Risks of Getting Tough with China

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2003/pi20030911_6388_pi032.htmSnip:

THE DOWNSIDE. Of course, any move by China to strengthen the yuan could have effects beyond the export arena. China has been a major purchaser (along with other Asian central banks) of U.S. Treasury and agency debt to help keep its currency at its desired level against the dollar. As such, it plays a key role in funding the ever-swelling U.S. trade and current account deficits.

Any decision by Beijing and other Asian economic powers to cut back on their U.S. government debt purchases leaves the Treasury market at potential risk. With a stronger currency peg vs. the dollar, China would purchase fewer bonds, as would Asian central banks if they were to cut back on currency market intervention (buying up U.S. debt to help prop up their own currencies).

And further weakness in the Treasury market, with a resulting bump higher in interest rates, could weigh on the long-gestating U.S. recovery. In that regard, U.S. lawmakers should be very careful what they wish for.
************
Misetich

Scary stuff - and each and every day Asia is adding billions of US $ to their reserves. How long can this continue? What are the effects, implications on the "world reserve currency"?

What are effects to consumers, housing when IR rise?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

DummyANI

(09/11/2003; 07:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108509)

@misetich (9/11/03; 05:13:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108505)

http://www.bellwetherinteractive.com/mdi/ Mr Wagoner is not a president of GM, he is a lobbyist. He cannot foresee a car-market of the world.

If I am a president of GM, I develop a no-pollution car which was invented by Guy Negre.
This technology are disclosed in USP
6,334,435 Method for operating pollution-free engine expansion chamber and expansion chamber therefor
6,311,486 Method for operating a pollution-reducing engine
6,305,171 Method and device for additional thermal heating for motor vehicle equipped with pollution-free engine with additional compressed air injection
6,094,915 Method and devices for eliminating the pollution of cyclic internal combustion engines with an independent combustion chamber

And I present no-pollution laws at Congress. No-pollution laws will be shut-out very elegantly Japanese cars from American home-lands.

The Hoople

(09/11/2003; 07:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108510)

Operative, re mortgage delinquency

"The seasonally adjusted percentage of mortgage payments 30 days or more past due...". Another smokescreen to conceal the real rate of delinquency. Next thing you know they will seasonally adjust the weather futures. The re-fi's have concealed much delinquency, they roll a past due mortgage into a current one. I also doubt highly that the banks are being totally forthright about the percentages of delinquency when informally surveyed. Nothing like sending a shocking message to the shareholders. I saw a while back in WSJ I believe a story about Conseco sitting on 20,000 trailers they repo'd. They still weren't showing up as defaulted loans, yet couldn't get rid of them for even a fraction of the loan value. Maybe a glimpse of the broader housing future?

makcumka

(09/11/2003; 08:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108511)

@ Renny - Valuations

IMHO, you must think back to the times of war. My parents, who lived through WWII and German invasion told me several stories about those times. The cars were as good as the gas in them. The TVs and stereos - even less value. Clothing was valued a bit higher. Food and shelter was very important. Jewelry and antiques were valued only to the extent of their PM content - a lot of valuable pieces had been melted down and lost forever. Gold and silver coinage or items (plates, spoons, etc) were valuable, although they carried no "artistic" or "aestetic" value - just weight.

Of course, that scenario applies only at the darkest hour. At the absence of these extreme circumstances - the only means of identifying value of something that you have is the currency you deal in or item's sentimental value to you. Again, IMHO.

Druid

(09/11/2003; 09:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108512)

Operative (9/11/03; 02:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 108499)

"Step Right Up! Gaze with wonder at one of the best investments ever presented to all mankind! Once only the Rich & Famous owned it, some say the gods of yesterage fought over it, NOW is your chance of a lifetime...get your gold PAPER here! Step Right Up. You sir, You in the back of the crowd! Yes YOU! I hear the clinking of gold coins in your pockets. Would you like to trade those heavy coins for light as air paper gold?"

Druid: Yep, directing inflation where it needs to go, call it something different thereby creating the perception that it has value and will make you wealthier. Inflation, hidden in plain sight.

Druid

(09/11/2003; 09:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108513)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0909.htm

"Consequently, many nations outside the U.S. have faced far worse battles against rapidly advancing prices. The 20th century has recorded numerous examples of runaway inflation. If the 5,000% Civil War inflation rate was shocking, prepare to be further jolted by the forthcoming hyperinflation statistics:

1. Germany 1920-1923 3.25 million percent
2. Russia 1921-1924 213 percent
3. Austria 1921-1922 134 percent
4. Poland 1922-1924 275 percent
5. Hungary 1922-1924 98 percent World War II
6. Greece 1943-1944 8.5 billion percent
7. Hungary 1945-1946 4.19 quintillion percent

At a peak of 4.19 quintillion percent, Hungary's 1946 hyper-inflation rate is startling when compared to any of the statistics in the above list (2) Just how large a number is 4.19 quintillion percent? To shed some light on that figure, image a 10 with 18 zeros: 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 (in Europe, 10 to the 30th). Now further imagine such a large number representing the purchasing power of one small loaf of bread. For a truly enlightening, yet chilling perspective into the damaging affects of inflation, please read the free text: Fiat Money Inflation and France.(3) The book can be viewed at the Internet site listed in the footnotes of this article."

Druid: Man! when a currency implodes, I hope your stocks denominated in that currency appreciate at a higher rate. Try figuring out a starting point to run your maxima and minima's so that you can point and click your way out of that trade at just the right moment. Talk about trying to bound uncertainty, good luck all.

Gandalf the White

(09/11/2003; 09:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108514)

WOWSERS --- GREAT rebound there SPIKE and SPOT !

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1After the CABAL threw enough PAPER Gold to drive the price down $4. --- SPIKE and SPOT took no more of that -- and JUMPED back up to the YELLOW line !
GO GET'EM DOGS !
Jump SPOT, JUMP
<;-)

Renny

(09/11/2003; 09:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108515)

makcumka

I knew it had to be somewhat arbitrary but I wasn't sure if there was some basic comparison mechanism I didn't know about or just use whatever the POG was for that day.

Thanks.
Renny

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/11/2003; 09:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108516)

Special Offer:

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Dutch Gold Guilders

Operative

(09/11/2003; 10:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108517)

@Slingshot

As the gold war wages with heavy hand to hand in the trenches, alas, an old alley of gold has arrived on the seen via airpower on Silver Wings. Silver forces, once thought to be insignificant in the gold warrior camp, indeed almost looked down upon by thier gold brothers in arms have initiated a second front along the battle lines.

Can't wait for the next saga Slingshot, get that pen and paper!

And�ril

(09/11/2003; 10:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108518)

Renny's question of value

"how would one value one's assets in terms of gold?"
"I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?"

Using the gold measuring stick, the short truth is that a man is 'worth' exactly as much gold as he HAS. The speculation of equivalent value of houses, automobiles, crops and factories do not add to the sum measure. The 'worth' as gold accrues to him only after the exchange transaction is truly made, the gold received.

In a lifetime of trials, a man worth nothing shall often struggle with wrong keys that open wrong doors, while the man worth gold will surely go forward swiftly upon paved passageways.

Operative

(09/11/2003; 10:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108519)

@ Druid

Indeed sir! Inflation and a whole host of evils, often disguised by smiles and smooth talk are coming this way. The watchcode for these times is "Be Wary". Here is my guess at the percentage of those who will be willing to trade thier gold coins for the New & Improved version of the latest paper fade game. .000000000000001, and I have errored on the high side to be safe.

(Oops, see a spelling gaff, fade/fad, but leaving as is since fade also appplies dont you think?)

Operative

(09/11/2003; 10:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108520)

@ Hoople, Thank You

Thanks for pointing out "seasonally adjusted" in the article and for expanding on the more truthfull version of the story.

Feeling somewhat sheepish on how I missed those two key words I checked the security levels and found that the BS Indicator had been set to low. I have since reprogrammed that device to High.

steady

(09/11/2003; 11:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108521)

gold/silver ratio

they r using the inverse of the gold silver ratio today instead of gold up .50 silver up .01 its the opposite,

Zhisheng

(09/11/2003; 11:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108522)

Up into the Close!

Excellent comeback today. The commercials to be outfoxing themselves.

Belgian

(09/11/2003; 11:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108523)

@Knallgold... @NEMO

For the time being, you have to take the ECB's "marking to market" of her goldreserves as the clearest signal on gold's future, that is for public consumption !
Politicians (central bankers) that leave the valuation of their goldreserves to *THE MARKET* !!! One day they will conquer that (goldpaper)market...and change it completely into a freegold market! If politicians can't beat a market, they take and make a market of their own !

NEMO : Do you see the same invisible hand (hands) murdering Olaf Palme (unsolved crime-17 yrs ago), that struck A. Lindh (and the euro), today ? TIA.

Gandalf the White

(09/11/2003; 11:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108524)

PERFECT Answer, Sir Anduril !

And�ril (9/11/03; 10:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 108518)
Renny's question of value
"how would one value one's assets in terms of gold?"
"I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?"
--
Using the gold measuring stick, the short truth is that a man is 'worth' exactly as much gold as he HAS.
===
ABSOLUTELY PERFECT !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/11/2003; 12:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108525)

UPDATE on today's COMEX "PAPER" Gold action!

Dec 03 COMEX December Contract (GC3Z) 9/11/03
Open $380.5 HIGH $382.7 low $375.7 Last $380.9
Settlement = $380.8 Change today = -$0.3 Volume 36,384
Yesterday's Settlement price $381.1 and Open Interest 204,059
===
LOTS of action today in the PITS !
BUT, after the CRASH of falling $4, the RISE was just as fast, back to the starting level. On the day, the GOLDHEARTS are "holding the LINE" !
BEND, but do not BREAK !
390 390 390
<;-)

The Hoople

(09/11/2003; 12:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108526)

The Hoople Report

On the 2nd anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy and with fresh terrorist warnings issued gold settled virtually unchanged. This marks the 287th consecutive time gold failed to rally on either bullish news or scary world events. The odds of 287 consecutive failures are estimated to be
10,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1. Andy Smith of Mitsui Metals was quick to dismiss such long odds as significant. "Those are no longer odds than winning the powerball 4 times in one year, so I see no significance here." When asked if he personally knew anyone that even won the powerball once he replied, "well, I did know a guy that hit a $500 scratch-off once". Leonard Kaplan was sanguine about it all. "I'd be a seller at $382.40, looking to cover at $381.80." JP Morgan issued a new bullish forecast for gold, calling for $348 in 2003, $350 in 04, $352 in 05, $354 in 06, $356 in 07 and $358 in 08. Those were revised upwards by $2 respectively. They also re-issued a "strong buy" on Enron at 3 cents, looking for a target price of $87.

-Amusing (hopefully) thoughts on an utterly predictable cabal day)

TownCrier

(09/11/2003; 12:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108527)

Signs of IMF 'coming around'???

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030911/economy_reserves_imf_1.htmlHEADLINE: IMF says Asian forex reserve build-up excessive

WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - A massive build-up in foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies has gone too far especially given the gaping imbalance in global current accounts, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Many Asian economies, stung by the late 1990s financial crisis, built reserves as insurance against something similar.

"It is one thing to save for a rainy day, but $1 trillion in reserves accumulation looks more like building Noah's ark," Ken Rogoff, the IMF's chief economist, told a conference call.

[An ark built of paper and water-soluble paste, that is...]

Most of these reserves are held in the form of very low interest-bearing loans to the governments of industrialized countries.

...Asian countries should begin to share the burden of the adjustment through more flexible exchange rates, the IMF said. The fund said it would be helpful for countries with managed-float currencies to intervene less in the market... [i.e., e.g., buying less of this U.S. paper]

Another concern of Asia's growing reserves, the fund said, is what would happen if central banks suddenly diversified more out of dollars when they realize their massive unproductive reserve assets.

If diversification takes place too quickly, there is a danger that Asian central bank funds, built up partly to insure against hot money private capital flows, will themselves become the hot money of the future.

-------(see url for this nice piece of reporting)-----

Is this a sign of IMF accepting inevitable change in the world's financial orientation? Quote:

"These multilateral risks have to be weighed of course against domestic consideration but it is our job to voice them," Rogoff said.

Bottom line: Were these various nations to opt for gold instead of another national currency/debt as the means to provide their savings safety net against future crisis (that is, to the extent that that is truly the motive rather than trade balance), they would not thereby impart such a politically nettlesome situation onto the scene of international trade.

'Tis yet a long row to hoe.

R.

steady

(09/11/2003; 12:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108528)

comex (comics)

2 years latter and the part time paper pushing gold slackers over at comics(as that what there operations are starting to resemble) still have not normalized there hours. Do not forget that!

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/11/2003; 13:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108529)

Page Update!

glennh10

(09/11/2003; 13:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108530)

Re: asset valuation - some thoughts

The price of gold does fluctuate all the time. But, so does the dollar. An importer/exporter has to consider these fluctuations in his budget, changing on a daily basis. When the dollar drops on the currency market, either the prices paid for imported goods go up, or the seller agrees to accept less profit. The problem with today's dollar is that it has been manipulated to the point where its relative value in the world is way out of whack. Such an artificial condition imposed through manipulation is always temporary. Further manipulation only delays an eventual, exaggerated correction, an event we and our children will face. Gold keeps people honest. It's only when, driven by greed, we try to get clever by issuing more "redeemable" paper than gold that exists, or by converting legitimate markets into casinos, that we end up where we're at today.

Everybody's familiar with pricing in terms of dollars and cents (fractions of dollars). Originally, those dollars and cents were units that measured quantities of silver and gold. Certainly, things could also be valued (priced) in terms of grams of gold, and fractions thereof. But either way, whether measured in dollars or grams, I believe gold will soon resume its rightful duty in the marketplace, out of necessity, if nothing else.

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 13:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108531)

From The Mailbag

The following is courtesy of the Daily Reckoning (by John Mauldin):

This competitive currency devaluation cannot go on forever. As Bill Gross of Pimco points out quite succinctly:

"... The hundreds of billions that the Japanese and other Asian countries have been buying in order to keep their currencies competitive with the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) and the U.S. dollar will be subject to a sanity check... The currency/bonds/stocks of a reflating [U.S.] economy engaged in guns and butter, Hummer and Hummvee spending of near historical proportions are bad investments. Sooner, perhaps later, our Asian creditors will wake up and smell the coffee.

"Perhaps their java will take the form of dollar or Treasury Note sales. Perhaps the aroma will resemble a revaluation of the Yuan and then the Yen. Either way we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living.

"Mark these words well for what they're worth (not much some will say): China holds the keys to our kingdom, and our Hummers. Their willingness to buy our bonds, their philosophy of fixing their currency to the U.S. dollar will one day be tested. And should their patience be found wanting, all of their neighboring Asian China wannabes will move in near unison. Reflation's second round will have begun, U.S. interest rates will rise, our goods in the malls and the showrooms will be less affordable, and the process of national belt tightening and increased savings will have begun."

The Fed is between the devil and the deep blue sea. If the trade imbalance keeps to current levels, then foreign holding of U.S. bonds will rise dramatically. At low interest rates, this is not a huge drag on the economy. But what if rates rise and we start having to send $100 billion or $200 billion to foreign bondholders, which would only add to our trade deficit? Can the Fed really allow rates to rise prior to a drop in the trade deficit?

Black Blade: And today the trade deficit jumped higher yet again with China leading the way. My suggestion for your future job prospects � learn Cantonese and Mandarin!

misetich

(09/11/2003; 14:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108532)

Snow-U.S. will talk exchange rate flexibility at G7

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=Y4DQV0U20XTWECRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3429334Snip:

Snow-U.S. will talk exchange rate flexibility at G7
Thu September 11, 2003 03:11 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Thursday he will stress the importance of flexible exchange rates at group and bilateral meetings at the Group of Seven finance chiefs' gathering in Dubai on Sept. 20.
"The subject of flexible exchange rates will certainly be something that we put on the agenda ... with our colleagues in the G8," Snow told reporters at a briefing on a Middle Eastern trip he is set to embark on next week.
...........

The ministers meet in Dubai Sept. 20.
*******
Misetich

Snow and US singing a different tune (retreating and accepting defeat) than the now ancient and forgotten US Strong $ policy -
The in word is "flexible" which translates in a lower US $ vis a vis other currencies and real money Euro, Yen and Gold

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

e-mailer

(09/11/2003; 15:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108533)

gold price

Regarding the pending transfer of financial oversight of
Freddie (fre) and Fannie (fnm), from the Department of Housing and Urban Developement (HUD) to the U.S. Treasury Department, the following thoughts come to mind. Several posters on various gold forums have observed (correctly in my opinion) that the purpose is to bail out fre and fnm by using, post transfer, the approximately 30 billion dollars in the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). I suggest, however, that the story does not end there. If one believes, as I do, that over some long period of time, the Treasury department has employed the principle of Gibson's Paradox to control interest rates by the device of controlling the gold price by transferring ESF money to bullion banks at various intervals with instructions to sell (short) futures and options, this news re fre and fnm comes as good news for gold investors. Although downward movement in fre and fnm stock price would imply a correspondingly higher gold price, even more important, in my opinion, is the implied fact that the ESF money will not be available, post transfer, for the gold price suppression purpose above described. One can speculate that the recent and continuing gold price rise is due to the elimination of the ESF factor, rather than other factors also affecting the gold price.

CoBra(too)

(09/11/2003; 15:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108534)

@ Nemo, Belgian et al

The tragic assassination of the Swedish foreign minister, Anna Lindh, who was very outspoken pro EU and � could have a positive effect on the upcoming �-referendum. Premier Persson already stated to go ahead, as democracy can't and won't be subdued by terror. It may bring more voters to the polls than formerly expected and it may still become a close outcome.
Ericson Tel. has warned to move major parts of its business abroad in case the � is not adopted by the Swedish populace.

At yesterdays hearings for the new ECB president, Claude Trichet, he warned against watering down the Maastricht criteria. He reprimanded in particular France and Germany for not meeting the 3% budget deficit limit - well, what else could he do?

Some tidbits, only for now. Been very busy lately, though happy about it - cb2

Dollar Bill

(09/11/2003; 15:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108535)

.,.

"...A lower dollar, however, will not stop Chinese imports or suddenly make U.S. companies competitive. Even if the dollar fell to half its current value against the yuan, it would only increase the real wage rate in China from, say, $5 a day to $10.
Elsewhere in the news we read that this year, American workers are getting the smallest pay increases in 27 years. Is it any wonder?"

misetich

(09/11/2003; 16:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108536)

Barrick sees 10% production fall in 2004

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030911.wbbarrick0911/BNStory/Business/Snip:

Barrick Gold Corp. said Thursday it expects production to fall by 10 per cent next year while costs run about the same amount, although it still expects to meet its own performance targets.
.............
Next year, he said, production will likely be down about 10 per cent, while costs will climb by about 10 per cent.
*********
Misetich

The megahedger is disappointing shareholders once again - Several lawsuits have already been launched against Barrick by dischanted investors who allege to have been mislead by Barricks Executives
and Blanchard who are suing Barrick for gold price manipulation

Shareholder's revolt next?

thanks to cjk (Barrick sees 10% production fall in 2004) ID#277212: for the link

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

TownCrier

(09/11/2003; 18:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108537)

RE: msg#: 108527, a meatier comment by IMF's Ken Rogoff

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2003/tr030911.htmThe exact quote is considerably meatier than the paraphrased form used in the cited Reuters article. Here it is in whole, from the original source (link above):

"...someday Asian central banks may wake up to their massive, relatively unproductive reserve assets and begin to diversify more, out of dollars and possibly ****out of cash altogether.**** The larger these reserves grow, the greater the impact of this eventual diversification is going to have."

Somewhat related to this matter, another good perspective-building quote occurs later in the Q&A session:

"...certainly defaults on international debt is something we've been seeing for hundreds of years, and it's not something unique to emerging markets. The industrialized countries earlier in their past have done this. If you go into the 1800s, Spain defaulted on debt seven times, Germany and Austria five times, et cetera. There have been many, many incidents over the past, and one of the factors that we try to weigh in doing the chapter is what the likelihood is of having these problems come in the future, given what we've seen in the past."

Further:

QUESTION: "...Is it at all conceivable that the extreme volatility during the Asian financial crisis actually justifies a higher level of reserves...?"

ROGOFF: "Yes, certainly it's notable that the countries which have had the sharpest reserve buildups are largely ones that experienced crises. ... That said, the reserve accumulation has been growing at a very rapid clip the past 18 months, and while there's no magic formula to suggest what the right size is ... there's no magic number, but this is an attempt to try to say something more concrete. But it certainly leaves open the question that more insurance funds could be welcome.

"But there is a big cost to this. These are loans being made to industrialized countries at very low interest rates. And as I mentioned earlier, from a multilateral perspective there's a concern that as these get larger and larger and the yields are low, someday the Asian central banks and other central banks that have built up large reserves may feel compelled to diversify. And if this happens too rapidly, the results could be somewhat chaotic."

Beat the potentially chaotic rush and pricing liftoff -- diversify with physical gold now, while it is still undervalued in the shadow of vast derivative market confidence.

R.

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 18:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108538)

Re: Misetich - Falling Gold Production

Falling gold production is a growing concern for the industry after years of neglecting exploration efforts and the increased regulatory hurdles of bringing new mines online. Even with the best exploration efforts very few result in viable mining operations. I just read than South African production is off sharply and will experience continued declines while some smaller producing regions such as Peru have had some success in increasing production. There is some slight increase in Chinese and Russian production as well but overall the trend is for falling production and this trend will last for several years - 5 to 7 years minimum.

Add the falling production levels of precious metals production and rising costs along with fast rising demand and the outlook from the physical side of the market has improved considerably. We are now just entering a time of the year when jewelers are replenishing supplies for the upcoming Festival Season in Central Asia and the holiday seasons in the western indistrial societies. Though the economic outlook for the global economic revival is questionable at best we will see marked improvement for investment demand. It is difficult to separate jewelry and investment demand as in many regions these are one and the same, especially in the Third World. In the west the mark up for "fabrication" of what is actually junk metal jewelry of low quality and Karat composition is grossly over priced. Nevertheless we should still see substantial physical demand.

The new WGC sponsored gold backed securities could have a lot of offtake as large institutional funds that traditionally don't invest in precious metals. Of course I still await the gory details but personally I rather have my own immediate access to physical precious metals for obvious reasons. As the Chinese population gains more access to the liberalized gold market we shall see more physical demand there as well. I suspect that they may eventually rival Indian physical demand in coming years. Meanwhile Middle East demand remains very strong and the most recent report shows Turkish demand rising sharply as well. There really does appear to be a worldwide "paradigm shift" in the gold market and very positive one at that.

Anyway, Off to the gym!

- Black Blade

Arcticfox

(09/11/2003; 18:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108539)

Great snip from Bull Murphy's site..

From The Caf�'s man in the gold options pit:

Very simply, the order flow is bullish.....what is still amazing is that the way upside calls are still cheap.....seems like the whole world thinks we are going up 50 bucks and that's it....god forbid something happens and Gold has a multistandard deviation move to $500 in short order, we will have a derivatives nightmare....that I will guarantee....

There is some talk about vol trading lower upstairs than it is on the floor...perhaps the big banks need some options premium and aren't willing to big it back for their normal small vig.....

As far as today's action in the futures goes (and I know nothing about technical analysis), anyone who is outright short this market is out of their minds....With all of the supposed weak longs out there, the market bounced nicely off the lows.....

-END-

Arcticfox

(09/11/2003; 18:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108540)

Sorry, that should read Bill Murphy's site

though I think it's safe to say that he is bullish on gold...

Dollar Bill

(09/11/2003; 19:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108541)

"/ "

"...Mogambo mentioned China's plan to sell dollar denominated debt so as to beat the US at its own game. Take in strong dollars now (8.3 yuan to a buck), and pay off in worthless dollars later (8.3 bux to a yuan)."

Is this potentially big news? I dont get it yet.

Cytek

(09/11/2003; 19:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108542)

lemetropolecafe on silver... Somone wants delivery

Silver was steady all day, even as gold was trampled. Then, it took off to close in new high ground. It would appear those two little "ditties" brought to your attention yesterday could be very important clues, ones telling us silver is about ready to ROAR! Today, the DEC/DEC spread collapsed again, trading at a one cent difference at times. It settled at two cents. However, the DEC is trading at par with March. Formal backwardization may be only days away.

Got another "ditty" for you. The SEP silver open interest went up 126 contracts yesterday from 800 to 926. Rarely does that every happen two weeks into a delivery period. It says someone wants to take delivery of the silver and they are going to the Comex to get it.

This noticeable tightening of the silver spreads and sudden rise in open interest in the deliverable month suggests silver FIREWORKS are close at hand!

The silver open interest rose 1603 contracts to 111,101.

steady

(09/11/2003; 20:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108543)

valueing

gold is also valued in grains and grams.

is gold 'silver and platinum traded in grams on the china exchanges?

slingshot

(09/11/2003; 22:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108544)

Southeast USA

Hurricane Isabel 11P.M.ASTWinds at 160 mph. Moving West at 9mph. 924 M.B.

If ever the words of Sir Black Blade are to be heeded is NOW. Monitors at work are telling workers to start thinking of hurricane preparation. Florida may have thousands of people on the interstates fleeing this strong storm. Monday or Tuesday will tell which way the storm is moving,whether it hits the southeast or moves out to sea. The media is quiet and Hurricane Andrew is in the back of many minds. I may be in its path. Get ready if you may be.

I heard the Devil Scream once before when I was young.

You don't have to tell me twice.

Slingshot------------------------<>

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 22:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108545)

The Government Shell Game

http://www.nypost.com/business/5265.htm
Snippit:

As Wall Street continues to re-inflate the bubble, this one troubling question lingers for the those who are blowing air into stocks: Why aren't any jobs being created if the economy is improving as much as it is? You already know what I think about the government's employment figures - they aren't trustworthy. Let me put it more bluntly: They stink. But when you have a seventh straight month of job losses - including the 93,000 positions eliminated in August - you have to figure that, at the very least, the trend is accurate. Washington says the economy is growing at better than 3 percent a quarter, as measured by the gross domestic product. Expectations are that the figure will improve during the period that ends Sept. 30. Growth like that should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 new jobs each and every month. So, not only are we not adding to payrolls but we are still declining.

Black Blade: Not news to those of us living in the real world but in the fantasyland of government, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve � truth is what you want to make it by manipulating data and screwing the people. It's just as simple as that. Lying comes easy to those who make careers from lies (politicians, government bureaucrats, Wall Street economists, and Federal Reserve officials).

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 23:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108546)

The coming first world debt crisis

http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-3-77-1463.jsp
Snippit:

Jubilee Research at the New Economics Foundation (NEF), the team that spearheaded global awareness of a third world debt crisis released provocative new research in September 2003 which argues that the "first world" is approaching a major debt crisis. These findings appear in the first of NEF's annual reports on the global economy, Real World Economic Outlook � which shadows the IMF's annual World Economic Outlook.

The report predicts that a giant credit bubble, created by central bankers and finance ministers (the engineers of decades of "easy money") has now reached a "tipping point". This point � at which the "bubble" of financial assets exceeds GDP by nine times � has triggered financial crisis elsewhere. Another "tipping point" would be a rise in interest rates � not unlikely for economies like the US and UK which have massive foreign deficits.

The financial system: unbalanced, unfair, unsustainable

On a global level, there is $100 trillion of debt outstanding, but only $33 trillion of income with which to repay those debts. Even the drastic recent stock market falls have barely dented the credit superstructure. When this credit bubble bursts in the United States and Britain, it will be middle-class consumers that will first bear the brunt of the financial crash.

That will be unjust and unfair, because American and British consumers have been actively encouraged in their borrowing by the financial deregulation policies of both central bankers and governments. Moreover, politicians and bankers have watched as dutiful and compliant consumers have propped up these two big economies � helping to keep the global economy afloat. They will be rewarded for their heroic efforts by bankruptcy, losses, liabilities, and personal anguish � which will extend some time into the future.

Black Blade: Too bad that it's inevitable anyway and already here. The US is already bankrupt and there's no way out.

Gandalf the White

(09/11/2003; 23:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108547)

The 30 Year Bond looks a LITTLE TOP HEAVY ! See the LINK

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lk14]⪯f=GCan you YELL ? --- LOOK OUT BELOW !
OR, don't bother and just GET MORE YELLOW !
The Hobbits got their package from USAGOLD today.
CLINK CLINK CLINK CLINK CLINK
Thanks, Marie
<;-)

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 23:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108548)

Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3416753
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina defaulted on a $3 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, the biggest single missed payment in the IMF's history and likely to further isolate the precarious economy. The default, which comes nearly two years after Argentina racked up the biggest sovereign debt default ever in the throes of economic collapse, means Latin America's No.3 economy joins the ignominious ranks of IMF defaulters like Liberia, Sudan and Zimbabwe. "To avoid compromising 25 percent of (Central Bank) reserves, the government has decided to suspend the payment that was due today," the Cabinet Chief's office said in a statement.

Black Blade: And so it goes. Another one bites the dust � just another domino falling. .

Black Blade

(09/11/2003; 23:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108549)

Low oil stocks pose risk to world economy

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2003-daily/11-09-2003/business/b15.htm
Snippit:

PARIS: Oil stocks in industrialised countries are dangerously low, putting the world economy at high risk by pressuring prices and making markets volatile, the International Energy Agency warned in a monthly report on Wednesday.

"In a period of increased import dependency and geopolitical uncertainty, reduced inventory levels expose the global economy to elevated risks associated with factors such as weather and even small supply disruptions," the Paris-based agency said.

Industry oil stocks in the 30 members of the Organisation for Economic development and Cooperation were bumping along at the bottom of the range seen over the last five years as northern hemisphere heads into the winter season, when oil consumption tends to rise for heating purposes, the IEA said.

The situation was made wose by the current low level of spare production capacity estimated at one million barrels per day (bpd).

Black Blade: Word is that OPEC will leave quotas unchanged. It is also reported that Saudi production has topped out at 9.3 million bbl/day and that the estimates of 12 million bbl/day capacity have been wildly exaggerated. Also, Omani production continues to experience steep decline rates. Meanwhile Iraqi production is not anywhere near recovering to prewar production this year and even is doubtful for next year as well, not to mention an Iraqi oil pipeline blast per week and failing infrastructure.

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/12/2003; 00:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108550)

Q to Belgian

You wrote:Do you see the same invisible hand (hands) murdering Olaf Palme (unsolved crime-17 yrs ago), that struck A. Lindh (and the euro), today ? TIA.

Could You please expand on " ....(and the euro,")

Nemo

Belgian

(09/12/2003; 00:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108551)

Towncrier + Black Blade : IMF + NEF !!!

Very important facts !!!
Banks and Insurances * MUST * increase their reserve-levels (Basel II) by at least 50% !!!
Sorry for not having enough time to elaborate on this. Thanks TC and BB.

Belgian

(09/12/2003; 00:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108552)

@NEMO

O.Palme was murdered for his anti-American attitude. That's why the atrocity was never resolved.
Is the murder of A.Lindh another "political" murder, because of her pro-euro passion !? Than it is most probably, evident to conclude that the same invisible (but known) hand was at work, again (cfr. the Kelly-affair)!?

Suicides...accidents, state security and lone crazy killers are easy and classic diversions from political motivated killings. This looks a premiere in a, hopefully NOT, series of euro-murders. And since we investigate the euro as possible gold-defender, overhere, it is a subject that is gold-related, imo. Must go now.

Dollar Bill

(09/12/2003; 03:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108553)

*>*............+

Sir Slingshot,
Good to see you are afraid of hurricanes. I am just back from Sanibel Island, (fla) and a discussion of how vulnerable Florida is to a catagory 5 storm revealed that under a cat5 storm the water is raised up many feet due to the decreased air pressure. If that storm came ashore, it would bring the ocean with it. Florida is at most 9 feet above sea level. If you are near the track, leave at least 4 days ahead to avoid being trapped in traffic. If you need our help, ask.

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/12/2003; 03:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108554)

Belgian

Can�t see the logic.
The logical effect of an assassination of one of the prominent "yes sayer" would probably give one of following outcomes of the ref.:
* Postponed some weeks.
Yes have been catching in lately, so this would be
grate for the "yes".

* Postponed one year.
No one can tell what will happen, but with
"yes-sides" growing both in Norway and Denmark lately
this would probably benefit the "euro-yes".

* Killing Lindh gives strength to the yes side. There is
probably a huge psychological plus-effect for the
"yes-side". Or at least no plus-effect at all for
the "nay-side" rather a large risk.

Besides this - due to the behaviour of the killer he must be the worst hitman ever becoming a "contract".

It does not fit!

MK Sorry for the out of focus posting.

Nemo

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/12/2003; 04:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108555)

Special Offer until noon MDT today (2:00 Eastern, 11:00 Pacific):

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Dutch Gold Guilders

Dutch 10 Guilder Queen Whilhelmina
.1947 oz Gold, Uncirculated Condition

Discounted to compete with bullion.

We have secured a good deal on these coins and want to pass the benefits on to you, giving you the opportunity to own uncirculated pre-1933 gold coins for less than the cost of similarly-sized bullion coins. That's right, it would cost you MORE per ounce to buy 1/4 US Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs or Austrian Philharmonics.

This special will run through noon (MDT) today. Purchase a roll of 50 or more and receive free shipping for additional savings.

This offer is an excellent opportunity to add the necessary protection to your portfolio that only gold can provide. If you would like further details on this golden opportunity to add pre-1933 coins to your porfolio at a low premium to spot gold, give USAGold-CPM, Inc. a call today and go into the weekend with gold... and a smile that your friends will wonder about.

1-800-869-5115

Cavan Man

(09/12/2003; 05:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108556)

RE:

2 U.S. Troops Killed, 7 Hurt in Iraq Raid
Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and seven wounded early Friday in a shootout that broke out during a raid in Ramadi, the military reported.

The U.S. Army gave no other information on the incident, which took place during one of the bloodiest nights of fighting since the end of major conflict on May 1.

An unknown number of Iraqi police were killed or injured also early Friday near Fallujah, which is between Ramadi and Baghdad. The shooting in Fallujah, 30 miles west of Baghdad, was believed to have involved American forces, Fallujah police and guards at the Jordanian Hospital at the scene of the firefight.

In the confusion after the shooting, 12 policemen were taken inside the nearby U.S. base. Whether they were killed or injured

Brett Woods

(09/12/2003; 07:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108557)

The gist of the case against Barrick?

By Dominic P. Slyfield, September 11, 2003

After the nearly catastrophic devaluation of the USD following departure from the gold standard and the resulting 1978-80 gold and silver price spike, the newly elected governments of the mid 1980's formed the G7; a group of finance ministers who met to agree upon a world wide money management policy. This "cabal" as it has been called, purportedly met and agreed upon a common course of action with regard to strengthening the exchange value of the U.S. Dollar (to reduce inflation and to ensure its status as the Central Bank reserve), and further, to develop a plan that would allow interest rates to be reduced to low levels in order to stimulate borrowing, spending and investment in industrial production.

The strategy of reducing the value of gold in order to increase the value of USD would clearly have an influence over gold production, sale, and valuation. Potential problems with such efforts may arise with regard to the relationship of government with private gold producers and the role that these public companies might play in the process of creating value for USD reserves and reducing value for gold reserves.

Barrick Gold was founded in 1983 with Saudi Arabian capital partners and very quickly, a dream team of managing directors. These included: George Bush Sr. (Head of CIA, President U.S.A), Brian Mulroney (Prime Minister Canada, chief proponent of NAFTA), Fred Doucet (Senior advisor and Chief of Staff to Brian Mulroney when Mulroney was leader of the Opposition in Canada), Karl Otto P�hl (President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the German Central bank), G. Allen Andreas (Attorney for the United States Treasury Department from 1969 - 1973 and one of the architects of the departure from the gold standard in 1971), and Thomas Hicks (Chairman of Hicks, Muse Tate and Furst Inc., a private investment firm formed in 1989 specializing in leveraged aquisitions). The firms principal accountant was a fresh out of school CPA named Randall Oliphant who, eight years after graduation, became Chief Financial Officer at Barrick.

The allegations of wrong doing arise from the implication that these individuals may have used their knowledge of private G7 and Central Bank policy decisions to enrich their company and themselves personally, and further that they may have used Barrick Gold, in conjunction with J.P Morgan Chase Bank as a tool for Western economic policy implementation to their mutual benefit. One fact is that Barrick Gold, a company with a one small gold mine in 1983 grew via mergers and acquisitions to become the world's largest gold producer within 20 years of its inception.

By fixing contracts to sell most of Barrick's gold production at the going rate, and being by far the leader of world producers in this practice, Barrick gained a reported USD $1.7-2.0 Billion revenue advantage over its competitors. Barrick's competitors, who where unaware of the World Central Banks' relentless commitment to contract for short sale all world gold reserves, found that the price of their product dropped unforeseeably below the range of mining profitability with result that Barrick was able to acquire their assets at low valuations.

****

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 07:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108558)

J.P.Morgan and Gold

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/PGOA-5RAD64Snippet.

PERTH � The gold price is tipped to crash through US$400 an ounce and make a run for US$450/oz, according to Deutsche Bank, which has launched two call warrants over Gold Bullion Securities [ASX:GOLD].

Gold-favourable factors such as the blowouts in US trade and fiscal deficits, weakness in the US dollar, terrorism fears, Middle East instability, producer dehedging and reduced central bank selling are feeding the rapidly growing investment appetite for gold as an alternative asset class. "The price of gold has broken through an important technical resistance level of $US374/oz, which Deutsche analysts see as the potential start of another rising cycle," said David Sarkis, head of the bank's global equity derivatives structured products and trading division. "This, combined with increased investor demand for gold, US dollar instability, decreased hedging by producers and reduced mine supply could set the stage for a further rise in the gold price beyond $US400/oz and as high as $US450/oz over the coming 12-18 months."

Guess J.P.Morgan sees the world through different "rose-coloured glasses".

Druid

(09/12/2003; 07:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108559)

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm

"Seignorage may also be a motive behind the recent stabbing and now death of Swedish FM, Anna Lindh, an avid proponent of a shift to the Euro. It recalls a discussion I had with a mentor of mine after asking about the possibility of the government totally fudging statistics. "You see David" he intoned in his British-Indian accent, "when the statistics suggest a positive outlook which is not true, the people will groan, eventually rebelling in some form or another." This is not to condone, in any way, the stabbing, or any other of the myriad violent ways in which people are expressing their current dissatisfaction around the world, but rather to suggest that the rise in political assassinations, suicides, and the rising turmoil in the world belies the rosy scenario bandied about."

Druid: This is from yesterday's "Morning Thoughts." This kind of incident does not lead one to believe that a smooth and/or orderly transition is taking place. Now too try and piece together the "real" reasons.

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 08:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108560)

JFK and the FED

Snippet

On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. The Christian Law Fellowship has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superceded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid.

When President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - the author of Profiles in Courage -signed this Order, it returned to the federal government, specifically the Treasury Department, the Constitutional power to create and issue currency -money - without going through the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank. President Kennedy's Executive Order 11110 [the full text is displayed further below] gave the Treasury Department the explicit authority: "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This means that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation based on the silver bullion physically held there. As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assassinated. It appears obvious that President Kennedy knew the Federal Reserve Notes being used as the purported legal currency were contrary to the Constitution of the united States of America.

United States Notes" were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury. We compared a "Federal Reserve Note" issued from the private central bank of the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank a/k/a Federal Reserve System), with a "United States Note" from the U.S. Treasury issued by President Kennedy's Executive Order. They almost look alike, except one says "Federal Reserve Note" on the top while the other says "United States Note". Also, the Federal Reserve Note has a green seal and serial number while the United States Note has a red seal and serial number.

President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation. Federal Reserve Notes continued to serve as the legal currency of the nation. According to the United States Secret Service, 99% of all U.S. paper "currency" circulating in 1999 are Federal Reserve Notes.

Kennedy knew that if the silver-backed United States Notes were widely circulated, they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve Notes. This is a very simple matter of economics. The USN was backed by silver and the FRN was not backed by anything of intrinsic value. Executive Order 11110 should have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level (virtually all of the nearly $9 trillion in federal debt has been created since 1963) if LBJ or any subsequent President were to enforce it. It would have almost immediately given the U.S. Government the ability to repay its debt without going to the private Federal Reserve Banks and being charged interest to create new "money". Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S.A. the ability to, once again, create its own money backed by silver and realm value worth something.

Again, according to our own research, just five months after Kennedy was assassinated, no more of the Series 1958 "Silver Certificates" were issued either, and they were subsequently removed from circulation. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to all future presidents not to interfere with the private Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. It seems very apparent that President Kennedy challenged the "powers that exist behind U.S. and world finance". With true patriotic courage, JFK boldly faced the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt:

1) war (Viet Nam); and,

2) the creation of money by a privately owned central bank. His efforts to have all U.S. troops out of Vietnam by 1965 combined with Executive Order 11110 would have destroyed the profits and control of the private Federal Reserve Bank.

Snippet

Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Jefferson saw it coming 150 years ago. The question is, "Can you now see what is in store for us if we allow the FED to continue controlling our country?"

Unfortunately, the link I have for this info. will not open for me. I have copied the whole report and can post it if anyone is interested. It is lengthy (13 pages) but it contains some very interesting references.

Question. Does anyone remember these notes and are any still in circulation and/or private collections?

tyro

(09/12/2003; 09:10:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108561)

Gold vs Dow

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=41574869&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&�"How high could gold go? My old friend and mentor Don Hoppe, who retired from writing a regular newsletter several years ago, thinks the price of gold could go a lot higher.
Says Hoppe: "When gold is overvalued, it takes only about 1 or 11/2 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow Jones industrial average. Just think back to 1980 when the Dow was about 850 and gold briefly traded around $850 an ounce, a one-to-one ratio.
"But when gold is undervalued, it takes anywhere from 24 to 42 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. In 2000 it took 42 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. Today it still takes 25 ounces of gold at about $375 to buy one unit of the Dow at 9,500.
So gold is still way undervalued."
tyro: I like this measure more than the price of a suit�gold $9,500 an ounce! Welcome back, Black Blade! I've missed your postings. Have any "field" stories to share?

Socrates964

(09/12/2003; 09:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108562)

Gold bulls taking the day off

Despite the weakness in POG, note that the selling of gold shares seems to have dried up, with the latter diverging positively - harbinger of greater things to come?

Druid

(09/12/2003; 09:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108563)

cockerel1 (9/12/03; 08:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 108560)

Druid: Cockrell, its worth a try, right click on the URL and then click on your Edit option and see if it will then allow you to copy.

admin

(09/12/2003; 10:04:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108564)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

"Gold is up roughly 20% over the past 12 months and stocks are up about 7%...............In a 1% world that 20% on gold -- still the most undervalued primary asset available -- looks very good."

Boilermaker

(09/12/2003; 10:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108565)

cockerell's JFK and the FED

http://www.bridgeoflove.com/bookstore/icke/magazine/vol14/research/kennedy-fed-res.htmlThis link is one of several turned up in a search of "executive order 11110".

I remember the silver certificates and the red seal that identified them. As I recall, the redemption feature was eliminated when the price of silver drove silver coins out of circulation.

This is something that Ron Paul should be encouraged to pursue.

Boilermaker.

Gandalf the White

(09/12/2003; 10:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108566)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!
There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get your thinking hats out and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Runner

(09/12/2003; 10:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108567)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes********

Listed below are 10 reasons why gold should rise over the next decade and well into the 21st century. First and over printing of the US dollar. The increasing acceptance of the Euro as a reserve currency. Weak earning of most major corpations. Reduction in gold exploration and mining activity. The reduction in miners forward sales. Increase in Asian gold consuption. Increased popularity and acceptance of egold and further development of the internet. Low interest rates. Centeral banks restricting gold sales. Finally,Countries all over the world competing to devalue their currency.

These factors by themselves are powerfull but, add them together and gold has only one direction to move in. UP!!!!!!

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Runner.

Runner

(09/12/2003; 10:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108568)

Price of Gold

$$$$388.5$$$$

Casey

(09/12/2003; 11:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108569)

$$$$ 383.2 $$$$

[fingers crossed]

Gandalf the White

(09/12/2003; 12:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108570)

OOPS ---- two INVALID pog contest entries in a row !

Casey (9/12/03; 11:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 108569)
$$$$ 383.2 $$$$
[fingers crossed]

Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568)
Price of Gold
$$$$388.5$$$$
===
Do you see anything MISSING in the above entries ?
PLEASE TRY again Sirs Casey and Runner!!
BTW Sir Runner -- was that your FIRST Post on the Essay contest ?
<;-)

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 12:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108571)

JFK and FED cont.

http://www.roc-grp.org/jfk.html On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. The Christian Law Fellowship has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superceded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid.

When President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - the author of Profiles in Courage -signed this Order, it returned to the federal government, specifically the Treasury Department, the Constitutional power to create and issue currency -money - without going through the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank. President Kennedy's Executive Order 11110 [the full text is displayed further below] gave the Treasury Department the explicit authority: "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This means that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation based on the silver bullion physically held there. As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assassinated. It appears obvious that President Kennedy knew the Federal Reserve Notes being used as the purported legal currency were contrary to the Constitution of the united States of America.

United States Notes" were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury. We compared a "Federal Reserve Note" issued from the private central bank of the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank a/k/a Federal Reserve System), with a "United States Note" from the U.S. Treasury issued by President Kennedy's Executive Order. They almost look alike, except one says "Federal Reserve Note" on the top while the other says "United States Note". Also, the Federal Reserve Note has a green seal and serial number while the United States Note has a red seal and serial number.

President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation. Federal Reserve Notes continued to serve as the legal currency of the nation. According to the United States Secret Service, 99% of all U.S. paper "currency" circulating in 1999 are Federal Reserve Notes.

Kennedy knew that if the silver-backed United States Notes were widely circulated, they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve Notes. This is a very simple matter of economics. The USN was backed by silver and the FRN was not backed by anything of intrinsic value. Executive Order 11110 should have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level (virtually all of the nearly $9 trillion in federal debt has been created since 1963) if LBJ or any subsequent President were to enforce it. It would have almost immediately given the U.S. Government the ability to repay its debt without going to the private Federal Reserve Banks and being charged interest to create new "money". Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S.A. the ability to, once again, create its own money backed by silver and realm value worth something.

Again, according to our own research, just five months after Kennedy was assassinated, no more of the Series 1958 "Silver Certificates" were issued either, and they were subsequently removed from circulation. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to all future presidents not to interfere with the private Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. It seems very apparent that President Kennedy challenged the "powers that exist behind U.S. and world finance". With true patriotic courage, JFK boldly faced the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt:

1) war (Viet Nam); and,

2) the creation of money by a privately owned central bank. His efforts to have all U.S. troops out of Vietnam by 1965 combined with Executive Order 11110 would have destroyed the profits and control of the private Federal Reserve Bank.

xoxox

Executive Order 11110

AMENDMENT OF EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 10289 AS AMENDED, RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OF CERTAIN FUNCTIONS AFFECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY. By virtue of the authority vested in me by section 301 of title 3 of the United States Code, it is ordered as follows:

SECTION 1. Executive Order No. 10289 of September 19, 1951, as amended, is hereby further amended - (a) By adding at the end of paragraph 1 thereof the following subparagraph (j): "(j) The authority vested in the President by paragraph (b) of section 43 of the Act of May 12, 1933, as amended (31 U.S.C. 821 (b)), to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of any outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denominations of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption," and (b) By revoking subparagraphs (b) and (c) of paragraph 2 thereof. SECTION 2. The amendment made by this Order shall not affect any act done, or any right accruing or accrued or any suit or proceeding had or commenced in any civil or criminal cause prior to the date of this Order but all such liabilities shall continue and may be enforced as if said amendments had not been made.

JOHN F. KENNEDY THE WHITE HOUSE, June 4, 1963

xoxox

Once again, Executive Order 11110 is still valid. According to Title 3, United States Code, Section 301 dated January 26, 1998:

Executive Order (EO) 10289 dated Sept. 17, 1951, 16 F.R. 9499, was as amended by:

EO 10583, dated December 18, 1954, 19 F.R. 8725;

EO 10882 dated July 18, 1960, 25 F.R. 6869;

EO 11110 dated June 4, 1963, 28 F.R. 5605;

EO 11825 dated December 31, 1974, 40 F.R. 1003;

EO 12608 dated September 9, 1987, 52 F.R. 34617

The 1974 and 1987 amendments, added after Kennedy's 1963 amendment, did not change or alter any part of Kennedy's EO 11110. A search of Clinton's 1998 and 1999 EO's and Presidential Directives has also shown no reference to any alterations, suspensions, or changes to EO 11110.

The Federal Reserve Bank, a.k.a Federal Reserve System, is a Private Corporation. Black's Law Dictionary defines the "Federal Reserve System" as: "Network of twelve central banks to which most national banks belong and to which state chartered banks may belong. Membership rules require investment of stock and minimum reserves." Privately-owned banks own the stock of the FED. This was explained in more detail in the case of Lewis v. United States, Federal Reporter, 2nd Series, Vol. 680, Pages 1239, 1241 (1982), where the court said: "Each Federal Reserve Bank is a separate corporation owned by commercial banks in its region. The stock-holding commercial banks elect two thirds of each Bank's nine member board of directors".

The Federal Reserve Banks are locally controlled by their member banks. Once again, according to Black's Law Dictionary, we find that these privately owned banks actually issue money:

"Federal Reserve Act. Law which created Federal Reserve banks which act as agents in maintaining money reserves, issuing money in the form of bank notes, lending money to banks, and supervising banks. Administered by Federal Reserve Board (q.v.)".

The privately owned Federal Reserve (FED) banks actually issue (create) the "money" we use. In 1964, the House Committee on Banking and Currency, Subcommittee on Domestic Finance, at the second session of the 88th Congress, put out a study entitled Money Facts which contains a good description of what the FED is: "The Federal Reserve is a total money-making machine. It can issue money or checks. And it never has a problem of making its checks good because it can obtain the $5 and $10 bills necessary to cover its check simply by asking the Treasury Department's Bureau of Engraving to print them".

Any one person or any closely knit group who has a lot of money has a lot of power. Now imagine a group of people who have the power to create money. Imagine the power these people would have. This is exactly what the privately owned FED is!

No man did more to expose the power of the FED than Louis T. McFadden, who was the Chairman of the House Banking Committee back in the 1930s. In describing the FED, he remarked in the Congressional Record, House pages 1295 and 1296 on June 10, 1932:

"Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a Government Board, has cheated the Government of the United States and he people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our Government. It has done this through the maladministration of that law by which the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it".

Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are not Government institutions, departments, or agencies. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers. Those 12 private credit monopolies were deceitfully placed upon this country by bankers who came here from Europe and who repaid us for our hospitality by undermining our American institutions.

The FED basically works like this: The government granted its power to create money to the FED banks. They create money, then loan it back to the government charging interest. The government levies income taxes to pay the interest on the debt. On this point, it's interesting to note that the Federal Reserve Act and the sixteenth amendment, which gave congress the power to collect income taxes, were both passed in 1913. The incredible power of the FED over the economy is universally admitted. Some people, especially in the banking and academic communities, even support it. On the other hand, there are those, such as President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, that have spoken out against it. His efforts were spoken about in Jim Marrs' 1990 book Crossfire:"

Another overlooked aspect of Kennedy's attempt to reform American society involves money. Kennedy apparently reasoned that by returning to the constitution, which states that only Congress shall coin and regulate money, the soaring national debt could be reduced by not paying interest to the bankers of the Federal Reserve System, who print paper money then loan it to the government at interest. He moved in this area on June 4, 1963, by signing Executive Order 11110 which called for the issuance of $4,292,893,815 in United States Notes through the U.S. Treasury rather than the traditional Federal Reserve System. That same day, Kennedy signed a bill changing the backing of one and two dollar bills from silver to gold, adding strength to the weakened U.S. currency.

Kennedy's comptroller of the currency, James J. Saxon, had been at odds with the powerful Federal Reserve Board for some time, encouraging broader investment and lending powers for banks that were not part of the Federal Reserve system. Saxon also had decided that non-Reserve banks could underwrite state and local general obligation bonds, again weakening the dominant Federal Reserve banks".

In a comment made to a Columbia University class on Nov. 12, 1963,

Ten days before his assassination, President John Fitzgerald Kennedy allegedly said:

"The high office of the President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the American's freedom and before I leave office, I must inform the citizen of this plight."

In this matter, John Fitzgerald Kennedy appears to be the subject of his own book... a true Profile of Courage.

This research report was compiled for Lawgiver. Org. by Anthony Wayne

xoxox

What is the Federal Reserve Bank?

What is the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) and why do we have it?

by Greg Hobbs November 1, 1999

The FED is a central bank. Central banks are supposed to implement a country's fiscal policies. They monitor commercial banks to ensure that they maintain sufficient assets, like cash, so as to remain solvent and stable. Central banks also do business, such as currency exchanges and gold transactions, with other central banks. In theory, a central bank should be good for a country, and they might be if it wasn't for the fact that they are not owned or controlled by the government of the country they are serving. Private central banks, including our FED, operate not in the interest of the public good but for profit.

There have been three central banks in our nation's history. The first two, while deceptive and fraudulent, pale in comparison to the scope and size of the fraud being perpetrated by our current FED. What they all have in common is an insidious practice known as "fractional banking."

Fractional banking or fractional lending is the ability to create money from nothing, lend it to the government or someone else and charge interest to boot. The practice evolved before banks existed. Goldsmiths rented out space in their vaults to individuals and merchants for storage of their gold or silver. The goldsmiths gave these "depositors" a certificate that showed the amount of gold stored. These certificates were then used to conduct business.

In time the goldsmiths noticed that the gold in their vaults was rarely withdrawn. Small amounts would move in and out but the large majority never moved. Sensing a profit opportunity, the goldsmiths issued double receipts for the gold, in effect creating money (certificates) from nothing and then lending those certificates (creating debt) to depositors and charging them interest as well.

Since the certificates represented more gold than actually existed, the certificates were "fractionally" backed by gold. Eventually some of these vault operations were transformed into banks and the practice of fractional banking continued.

Keep that fractional banking concept in mind as we examine our first central bank, the First Bank of the United States (BUS). It was created, after bitter dissent in the Congress, in 1791 and chartered for 20 years. A scam not unlike the current FED, the BUS used its control of the currency to defraud the public and establish a legal form of usury.

This bank practiced fractional lending at a 10:1 rate, ten dollars of loans for each dollar they had on deposit. This misuse and abuse of their public charter continued for the entire 20 years of their existence. Public outrage over these abuses was such that the charter was not renewed and the bank ceased to exist in 1811.

The war of 1812 left the country in economic chaos, seen by bankers as another opportunity for easy profits. They influenced Congress to charter the second central bank, the Second Bank of the United States (SBUS), in 1816.

The SBUS was more expansive than the BUS. The SBUS sold franchises and literally doubled the number of banks in a short period of time. The country began to boom and move westward, which required money. Using fractional lending at the 10:1 rate, the central bank and their franchisees created the debt/money for the expansion.

Things boomed for a while, then the banks decided to shut off the debt/money, citing the need to control inflation. This action on the part of the SBUS caused bankruptcies and foreclosures. The banks then took control of the assets that were used as security against the loans.

Closely examine how the SBUS engineered this cycle of prosperity and depression. The central bank caused inflation by creating debt/money for loans and credit and making these funds readily available. The economy boomed. Then they used the inflation which they created as an excuse to shut off the loans/credit/money.

The resulting shortage of cash caused the economy to falter or slow dramatically and large numbers of business and personal bankruptcies resulted. The central bank then seized the assets used as security for the loans. The wealth created by the borrowers during the boom was then transferred to the central bank during the bust. And you always wondered how the big guys ended up with all the marbles.

Now, who do you think is responsible for all of the ups and downs in our economy over the last 85 years? Think about the depression of the late '20s and all through the '30s. The FED could have pumped lots of debt/money into the market to stimulate the economy and get the country back on track, but did they? No; in fact, they restricted the money supply quite severely. We all know the results that occurred from that action, don't we?

Why would the FED do this? During that period asset values and stocks were at rock bottom prices. Who do you think was buying everything at 10 cents on the dollar? I believe that it is referred to as consolidating the wealth. How many times have they already done this in the last 85 years?

Do you think they will do it again?

Just as an aside at this point, look at today's economy. Markets are declining. Why? Because the FED has been very liberal with its debt/credit/money. The market was hyper inflated. Who creates inflation? The FED. How does the FED deal with inflation? They restrict the debt/credit/money. What happens when they do that? The market collapses.

Several months back, after certain central banks said they would be selling large quantities of gold, the price of gold fell to a 25-year low of about $260 per ounce. The central banks then bought gold. After buying at the bottom, a group of 15 central banks announced that they would be restricting the amount of gold released into the market for the next five years. The price of gold went up $75.00 per ounce in just a few days. How many hundreds of billions of dollars did the central banks make with those two press releases?

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against more severe economic conditions. Do you think that the private banking families that own the FED are buying or selling equities at this time? (Remember: buy low, sell high.) How much money do you think these FED owners have made since they restricted the money supply at the top of this last current cycle?

Alan Greenspan has said publicly on several occasions that he thinks the market is overvalued, or words to that effect. Just a hint that he will raise interest rates (restrict the money supply), and equity markets have a negative reaction. Governments and politicians do not rule central banks, central banks rule governments and politicians. President Andrew Jackson won the presidency in 1828 with the promise to end the national debt and eliminate the SBUS. During his second term President Jackson withdrew all government funds from the bank and on January 8, 1835, paid off the national debt. He is the only president in history to have this distinction. The charter of the SBUS expired in 1836.

Without a central bank to manipulate the supply of money, the United States experienced unprecedented growth for 60 or 70 years, and the resulting wealth was too much for bankers to endure. They had to get back into the game. So, in 1910 Senator Nelson Aldrich, then Chairman of the National Monetary Commission, in collusion with representatives of the European central banks, devised a plan to pressure and deceive Congress into enacting legislation that would covertly establish a private central bank.

This bank would assume control over the American economy by controlling the issuance of its money. After a huge public relations campaign, engineered by the foreign central banks, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was slipped through Congress during the Christmas recess, with many members of the Congress absent. President Woodrow Wilson, pressured by his political and financial backers, signed it on December 23, 1913.

The act created the Federal Reserve System, a name carefully selected and designed to deceive. "Federal" would lead one to believe that this is a government organization. "Reserve" would lead one to believe that the currency is being backed by gold and silver. "System" was used in lieu of the word "bank" so that one would not conclude that a new central bank had been created.

In reality, the act created a private, for profit, central banking corporation owned by a cartel of private banks. Who owns the FED? The Rothschilds of London and Berlin; Lazard Brothers of Paris; Israel Moses Seif of Italy; Kuhn, Loeb and Warburg of Germany; and the Lehman Brothers, Goldman, Sachs and the Rockefeller families of New York.

Did you know that the FED is the only for-profit corporation in America that is exempt from both federal and state taxes? The FED takes in about one trillion dollars per year tax free! The banking families listed above get all that money.

Almost everyone thinks that the money they pay in taxes goes to the US Treasury to pay for the expenses of the government. Do you want to know where your tax dollars really go? If you look at the back of any check made payable to the IRS you will see that it has been endorsed as "Pay Any F.R.B. Branch or Gen. Depository for Credit U.S. Treas. This is in Payment of U.S. Oblig." Yes, that's right, every dime you pay in income taxes is given to those private banking families, commonly known as the FED, tax free.

Like many of you, I had some difficulty with the concept of creating money from nothing. You may have heard the term "monetizing the debt," which is kind of the same thing. As an example, if the US Government wants to borrow $1 million -- the government does borrow every dollar it spends -- they go to the FED to borrow the money. The FED calls the Treasury

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 12:12:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108572)

JFK and FED

Guess USA gold system will not accept whole article.

Please advise if o.k. to post remainder.

Thank you.

Gandalf the White

(09/12/2003; 12:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108573)

Sir Cockerel1's post on JFK and FED

cockerel1 (9/12/03; 12:12:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 108572)
JFK and FED
Guess USA gold system will not accept whole article.
====
YES Sir Cockerel1
It is SOOOOO long that you must SPLIT it into two parts !
Please post the CONTINUATION as the second part --- and use a third part if necessary !
Tks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/12/2003; 12:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108574)

UPDATE on the PAPER Gold COMEX action for Friday 9/12/03

Dec 03 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3Z) 9/12/03
Open $381.0 HIGH $383.0 low $376.2 Last $376.9
SETTLEMENT $376.9 Change on this Day -$3.9 VOLUME 44,750 Yesterday's Settlement $380.8 and OPEN INTEREST 205,726
===
BTW -- can you guess who is STILL "King of the Hill" ?
<;-)

Melting Pot

(09/12/2003; 12:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108575)

Nice little pull back today...buy the dips.....

Refuel our golden rocketship over weekend for relaunch on Monday or Tuesday.:) IMHO this is a gift before moving higher. Today it required the resources of Gold Cartel, ESF and BOJ intervention to recover dollar, SM and shorts. Someone very very big needed a close below $378 for some reason (wink, wink).

NIA & good trading to ya!

Melting Pot

(09/12/2003; 13:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108576)

The coiled spring syndrome.....

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Hehe....everytime the manipulators let up pressure on gold it jumps up trying to grab some more of the upper trend. I think I'm going to start calling old yellar "Spike" from here on,,,,,

Here "Spike" here, come on boy, you can do it.....

Good trading to ya!

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/12/2003; 14:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108577)

Page Update!

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 14:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108578)

JFK and FED part 2

Beginning of last paragraph of part 1 is reposted. If additional parts required, will post right away.

Like many of you, I had some difficulty with the concept of creating money from nothing. You may have heard the term "monetizing the debt," which is kind of the same thing. As an example, if the US Government wants to borrow $1 million -- the government does borrow every dollar it spends -- they go to the FED to borrow the money. The FED calls the Treasury and says print 10,000 Federal Reserve Notes (FRN) in units of one hundred dollars.

The Treasury charges the FED 2.3 cents for each note, for a total of $230 for the 10,000 FRNs. The FED then lends the $1 million to the government at face value plus interest. To add insult to injury, the government has to create a bond for $1 million as security for the loan. And the rich get richer. The above was just an example, because in reality the FED does not even print the money; it's just a computer entry in their accounting system. To put this on a more personal level, let's use another example.

Today's banks are members of the Federal Reserve Banking System. This membership makes it legal for them to create money from nothing and lend it to you. Today's banks, like the goldsmiths of old, realize that only a small fraction of the money deposited in their banks is ever actually withdrawn in the form of cash. Only about 4 percent of all the money that exists is in the form of currency. The rest of it is simply a computer entry.

Let's say you're approved to borrow $10,000 to do some home improvements. You know that the bank didn't actually take $10,000 from its pile of cash and put it into your pile? They simply went to their computer and input an entry of $10,000 into your account. They created, from thin air, a debt which you have to secure with an asset and repay with interest. The bank is allowed to create and lend as much debt as they want as long as they do not exceed the 10:1 ratio imposed by the FED.

It sort of puts a new slant on how you view your friendly bank, doesn't it? How about those loan committees that scrutinize you with a microscope before approving the loan they created from thin air. What a hoot! They make it complex for a reason. They don't want you to understand what they are doing. People fear what they do not understand. You are easier to delude and control when you are ignorant and afraid.

Now to put the frosting on this cake. When was the income tax created? If you guessed 1913, the same year that the FED was created, you get a gold star. Coincidence? What are the odds? If you are going to use the FED to create debt, who is going to repay that debt? The income tax was created to complete the illusion that real money had been lent and therefore real money had to be repaid. And you thought Houdini was good.

So, what can be done? My father taught me that you should always stand up for what is right, even if you have to stand up alone.

If "We the People" don't take some action now, there may come a time when "We the People" are no more. You should write a letter or send an email to each of your elected representatives. Many of our elected representatives do not understand the FED. Once informed they will not be able to plead ignorance and remain silent.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution specifically says that Congress is the only body that can "coin money and regulate the value thereof." The US Constitution has never been amended to allow anyone other than Congress to coin and regulate currency.

Ask your representative, in light of that information, how it is possible for the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, and the Federal Reserve Bank that it created, to be constitutional. Ask them why this private banking cartel is allowed to reap trillions of dollars in profits without paying taxes. Insist on an answer.

Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Jefferson saw it coming 150 years ago. The question is, "Can you now see what is in store for us if we allow the FED to continue controlling our country?"

"The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he breaks, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime, and the punishment of his guilt."

John P. Curran, 1790

Source: http://www.roc-grp.org/jfk.html

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 14:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108579)

JFK and FED

Posting now complete.

Casey

(09/12/2003; 14:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108580)

$$$$ 383.2 $$$$

Oops. Didn't catch that.

I consider the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource primarily because I learn more about the true nature of the economy and matters affecting the economy(ies) and real wealth (ie. commodities of real value) around the world at the Table. I value the contributors for their insights and dedication to free markets. Also, I simply don't read "news"papers or watch "news" programs (with the exception of the weather) so I must gather my information from trustworthy sites and forums.

The only shame is that I don't have more government paper at my disposal to exchange for solid gold wealth right now.

TownCrier

(09/12/2003; 14:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108581)

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Asset managers are more paranoid about their holdings than ever.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktwMost of the folks who handle paper investments on behalf of their clients are agog at the 40 percent gains in America's smallest companies these past six months. ... Market Semiotics' Woody Dorsey told The Calandra Report in an interview this week that will come to define both the looming meltdown in paper assets and the building momentum of the commodities rally, "Most portfolio managers have no faith in what they own, except for the commodities crowd."

...when I was at breakfast with a $1 billion asset manager, a $300 million asset manager ... both managers said they were desperate to lighten up on the small-cap technology stocks they owned and wanted a foot into the world of hard assets, be they copper, gold, platinum, nickel, zinc or iron ore.

...a large portion of the investing public -- i.e., ordinary folks -- have no idea how well commodities have performed since the U.S. terrorist attacks of two years ago.

Back in the world of asset managers, Frank Holmes of mutual fund operator U.S. Global says he is confident that gold, copper, platinum (near a 23-year high), nickel (near a three-year high) and other prices will rise sharply in coming weeks and months.

------(see url for article)-------

R.

Boilermaker

(09/12/2003; 15:52:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108582)

G-7 and USAGOLD Acronyms

It occurred to me that we need an acronym for the G-7 countries that manage our world finances. My entry is "DOPEC", Dollar Oriented Poverty Exporting Countries.

The USAGOLD Forum of course should be "GOPEC", Gold Owners Protecting Every Coin.

Have a good weekend all you goldbugs.

Boilermaker

Great Albino Bat

(09/12/2003; 16:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108583)

Today's close and next Monday's reaction to it...

We'll have to wait and see, but...

Today's hammering of the gold price (to which we have become quite accustomed, and indeed can regard as an opportunity to get in on a dip) may:

1. Either stampede the longs in the enormous open interest, and cause them to bail out "en masse" and thus bring gold (paper gold) down again (momentarily I'd suppose) to say, $360, or

2. The dip may incite others who would like to go "long", (and it appears from a post here, there are plenty of those potential longs) and that rush of buying may just sweep away the shorts like the MIssissip' bursting the levee.

It's going to be an interesting and educational Monday.

The GAB

Ag Mountain

(09/12/2003; 16:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108584)

TJ quote

Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Focus: "...first by inflation and then by deflation..."

HYPER-focus: "...first by inflation and THEN by deflation..."

Exactly. Too bad more people don't understand this better. If they did, they'd see how we ended up with a central bank to eliminate this danger. With a central bank at the helm of a monetary system as we all have it today there's no real threat of deflation. What we've got is a one-way street (with a few bumps and pot holes) of INFLATION, so Mr. Jefferson may eternally rest in peace on that old account.

That's why thinking people use gold beyond the banking system for their savings.

cockerel1

(09/12/2003; 16:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108585)

Acronym? How about a G7 motto?

How about a G7 motto?

Justifying (Japan)
Fiat (France)
And (America)
Undermining (United Kingdom)
Gold (Germany)
Is (Italy)
Criminal (Canada)

Federal_Reserves

(09/12/2003; 18:55:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108586)

The recovery

I'm looking for hard evidence of the business recovery in the United States.

I don't find any in employment, production and capital spending.

Therefore, I conclude we are still in the grasp of recession.

Like a drowning man we have come up for air bouyed by the tax cuts.

Today retail sales didn't even make 1/2 of expectations, and last months were revised down.

Liberty Head

(09/12/2003; 21:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108587)

Foreigners May Not Have Liked the War, but They Financed It

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/12/business/12NORR.html
Snippit:

All told, foreigners bought almost 80 percent of the net increase in Treasury and agency debt during the quarter. They now own 38 percent of outstanding Treasuries, more than double the figure of a decade ago.

-------------
Another interesting tidbit for the tid biters.

It's like playing "Old Maid" where everyone gets old maid cards but the dealer.

These games always end in massive bloodshed. After much bloodshed, there will be rekindled interest in honest money like gold.

Best Wishes

Wky_Woodsman

(09/12/2003; 22:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108588)

JFK and FED

Cockerel1 #108560 and follow-ups
Enjoyed your posts on the Federal Reserve. Thanks. It's been a few years since I've been through the JFK use of debt free money with silver of US Gov't coffers.
Agree that JFK had set in motion good policies by issuing debt free money and plans to reduce US presence in Vietnam. Unfortunately, LBJ turned those policies on their respective heads.
My recollection of the debt free money policy is as follows:
JFK on June 1963 authorized silver backed dollars to be issued by the Treasury. LBJ rescinded this in Sept of 1967.
Please note that my recollection is that E.O. 12608 was by LBJ and not in 1987 as the research that you cite. Details:
EO 10289 of Sept 17, 1951 was issued Providing for the Performance of Certain Functions of the President by the Secretary of Treasury.
This EO was amended by:
EO 10583
EO 10882
EO 11110 by JFK, June 4. 1963 which added to EO 10289 a new sec 1, para j = issue silver certificatees against silver.
EO 11825
EO 12608 by LBJ, Sept 9, 1967 which revokes from EO 10289 sec 1, para j.
I found the title of LBJ's EO amusing: Elimination of Unnecessary E.O.'s and Technical Amendments to Others.

So JFK added in sec 1, para j and LBJ takes it away.

I have a little more which I will continue in another post.

Wky

Gandalf the White

(09/12/2003; 22:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108589)

Thanks Sir, Casey for the VALID POG Contest entry !

Hello there Sir Runner --- Did you notice that he added a 25+ word comment on why he considered consider this 'Mighty Oaken Table of Yore' an important resource.
If you do that too, your POG Contest entry will be VALID !

YES, I know that I am making an example of the two of you --
BUT, think about all the HUNDREDS of others that will not make the SAME ERROR !
Tks
<;-)

Wky_Woodsman

(09/12/2003; 22:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108590)

JFK and FED II

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htmCockerel1 108560 and follow ups

Additionally in 1965 Congress passed the "Coinage Act of 1965" completely debasing the Constitutional gold and silver coin. At the signing of the Act on July 23, 1965, LBJ stated in a press release: "When I have signed this bill before me, we will have made the first fundamental change in our coinage in 173 years. The Coinage Act of of 1965 supercedes the Act of 1792 and that Act had the Title: An Act Establishing a Mint and Regulating the Coinage of the
U.S. Now I will sign this bill to make the first change in our coinage system since the 18th Century. To those members of Congress who are here on this historic occasion, I want to assure you that in making this change from the 18th Century 'we have no idea of returning to it'".

Please note that no constitutional amendment was ever obtained to fundamentally change or abolish the Contitutional Mandate (i.e. silver and gold coinage).

Cockerel1: If you are interested in the FED, download the URL and study some more!

Thanks for bringing it up.

Liberty Head

(09/12/2003; 23:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108591)

$$$$$$380.0$$$$$$

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an important resource because it is well managed without being over managed.
(applause, salute, applause)

It attracts a large pool of diverse, knowledgeable contributors.
(applause, salute, applause)

Black Blade
(applause, salute, applause)

And it gives away real gold.
(applause, salute, applause)

Who could ask for more?
And what better way to say thank you than to send an order to CPM. They say what they do, and do what they say.
(applause, salute, applause)

Gandalf the White

(09/13/2003; 00:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108592)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

Sundeck

(09/13/2003; 01:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108593)

Great Albino Bat : #108583 - Friday's Price Action

Without looking too deeply into it....but with the dollar dropping sharply around one percent, Friday's gold price action has the earmarks of traders selling into strength.

I suspect the current upward leg in the POG has some way to run yet...but it is impossible to tell.

FWIW and DYODD

:-)

cockerel1

(09/13/2003; 07:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108594)

Wky_Woodsman - msg#: 108590

Thank you Sir Wky_Woodsman.

I will read "The Secrets of The Federal Reserve" with interest. Hopefully I will then be able to voice my opinions from a clearer understanding.

However, your last posting on Friday, together with the information I gathered from the article I posted, raises a new question for my inquiring mind. As a student, albeit strictly a past-time, in the assassination of JFK, it now opens a new avenue to get to that thought-provoking question "Who killed JFK and why?"

Liberty Head

(09/13/2003; 11:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108597)

Unintentional Miscommunication?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030913/bs_nm/economy_fed_dc_1
Snippit:
"Evidently there has been some miscommunication. It was unintentional ... Communicating accurately with the bond market is an important part of Fed policy and we will make every effort to make sure communication is effective in the future," Bernanke said.

Snippit:
Indeed, so complete has been the misunderstanding and so damaging its impact on market interest rates that some, including one Fed president, are saying it may be better for the central bank to say less.
----------

Isn't it telling?
Bernanke isn't so interested in accurate communication as he is in "effective" communication.
In fairness, I must say this preference for "effectiveness" over accuracy is an extremely popular notion.
One could also see it as a preference for the "subjective" over the "objective".
I suspect those of us who own gold and frequent this site are more bullish towards an "objective" view.

Best Wishes

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/13/2003; 13:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108598)

In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Cavan Man

(09/13/2003; 14:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108599)

From the NY Times

Let the reader UNDERSTAND.Dizzying Dive to Red Ink Poses Stark Choices for Washington
By DAVID FIRESTONE

ASHINGTON, Sept. 13 � When President Bush informed the nation last Sunday night that remaining in Iraq next year will cost another $87 billion, many of those who will actually pay that bill were unable to watch. They had already been put to bed by their parents.

Administration officials acknowledged the next day that every dollar of that cost will be borrowed, a loan that economists say will be repaid by the next generation of taxpayers and the generation after that. The $166 billion cost of the work so far in Iraq and Afghanistan, which has stunned many in Washington, will be added to what was already the largest budget deficit the nation has ever known.

White Rose

(09/13/2003; 14:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108600)

JFK assassination and my path to Gold

When I hit college in 1970, I got sucked into the study of the Kennedy assassination. I now have a collection of about 150 books directly on the Kenndy assassination and hundreds more on "related" topics. What I learned was a series of useful lessons for an engineering student. I learned how the official disinformation machine worked. I learned that the more I applied myself, the less I know. It was a tar pit of messy data.

With this background, I easily saw through the official lies about gold. Every hour spent studying Dallas 1963 has paid me back hugely (plus the raw metal and the information found at this site and this establishment).

Finally, there is a political element. My analysis is that JFK had independant money. He was not interconnected to all the Wall Street and establishment boards of directors. This allowed JFK to move in independant directions. This was the reason he had to die (silver money, Vietnam, CIA, Cuba, etc.: you pick the menu of reasons).

So when I look at the gold scandal, I keep thinking "those were the bast*rds who killed Kennedy". To me this is an intensely personal battle with the forces of evil. I figure that if I go out and demonstrate at the School of the Americas (where we teach South American goons to torture progressive elements) I would be doing something positive. I also feel that when I buy gold and when I buy gold stocks and ask that the certificates be sent to me to keep them out of the hands of the gold goons, I am doing something even more powerful to say "No. This has to stop. Not in my name, and not with my money".

And besides, it ends up making quite a college fund for my kids.

Mr Gresham

(09/13/2003; 15:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108601)

White Rose

You continue to live up to the noble handle you've adopted.

The great mystery of our generation (who doesn't remember where he was when the news came?) which gives the lie to nearly all the politics we've lived through since.

And now, the public is almost at the point, after an dumbing-down era of corporate "infotainment", where the revelation of that truth would be almost met with indifference. By a younger generation uninterested in history or a solid national politics, and by a boomer generation confirmed in its cynicism learned on a day 40 years ago, and now too exhausted to know what to do with the truth.

Leigh

(09/13/2003; 15:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108602)

White Rose, Mr. Gresham

The little I know about Kennedy leads to me admire things about him very much. I think he would be appalled at what passes for the Democratic Party nowadays.

Here's what always troubles me, though: What happened (politically) to his daughter Caroline? Even though she has largely stayed out of politics, she still emerges from time to time to support the slime. About 11 years ago she presented a Profiles in Courage Award to the governor of Connecticut for having the "courage" to insist upon a state income tax. Why has she not stood publicly against the very kinds of people who were probably responsible for her father's death?

I think JFK Jr. actually was trying to make a stand in his own way. I don't think he died a political death (it was a VERY foggy night when he died -- could have happened to anyone). But he really was trying to stand for something, though I'm not sure exactly what it was.

glennh10

(09/13/2003; 15:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108603)

White Rose - JFK/Gold

I also dug in and studied the evidence surrounding the JFK assassination. And, I apply the same critique when analyzing the official lines where TPTB tend to discredit gold, support the central banking establishment, extol the virtues of deficits and indebtedness, etc. It's an absolute necessity to not just accept every explanation at face value.

Mr Gresham

(09/13/2003; 16:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108604)

It's so easy to kill people...

http://www.msnbc.com/news/870749.asp?vts=091320031445(except from a 4th-floor window with a bolt-action rifle)

No, the Iraq story linked just shows what happens when you turn KIDS loose with guns, away from home.

I'll never forget seeing Mike Wallace in 1969 interviewing PFC Paul _____ (Meadlo?), back from Vietnam, sitting in his living room with wife and mother watching, small children playing on the floor, about his involvement in the My Lai massacre:

"How can you, the father of two small children, shoot women and children?"

"Waaallll, we didn't have the little girl at the time."

BOIN-N-N-N-NG! went my brain.

A great cosmic "Sheesh!" from the Universe, watching a species likely to exterminate itself -- or at least great numbers of its innocent members -- one way or another.

Leigh -- I think Glenn is closer to my thoughts. I don't know who is right or wrong, good or bad, in all this. I pull back and try to ignore most of what I hear about celebs. (We saw all the Clintonology that went on, too, didn't we?) Just learned to be skeptical, without becoming terminally cynical -- and that's a TALL order! A sad one, too.

silvercollector

(09/13/2003; 18:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108605)

Cavan Man

Thanks for forwarding the opinions and stories regarding Iraq. I had been doing that for a while but stopped because I thought American readers would not appreciate the negative slant towards their leaders.

I have since realized that true gold advocates can sift through the intent of posting an Iraq story for example, versus the message of the story (don't shoot the messanger!)

It is my opinion, without any national or political slant that the troops in Iraq are no longer required. That is to say that based on their original objective of getting rid of Hussein and liberating Iraq then the job is done. Why doesn't Bush cut his country a break and pull up stakes.

From an military perspective, it's over.

Clink!

(09/13/2003; 18:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108606)

@ cockerel

I have been inspired by another type of gold (this one from Milwaukee) to try :-

Just Forget About Gold If U Can.

or (bullion banks, disbelieving....)

Jeeze, Can It Go Up Any Further ?!

Yeah, I know Gandalf, I should have been think creatively about the contest instead. But you've got to let your hair down (what's left of it) occasionally.

C!

silvercollector

(09/13/2003; 18:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108607)

Question to one and all

With the election approximately a year away does Mr. Bush want the dollar stronger to bring the good times back or does he want the dollar to fall rejuvenating a 'more' sustainable economic growth.

Secondly, does he have a choice, will he or the 'free markets' dictate the above outcome.

TIA

Paper Avalanche

(09/13/2003; 19:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108608)

Sweden may say yes to Euro despite assasination

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=574&u=/nm/20030913/wl_nm/sweden_euro_dc_4≺inter=1Interesting development. I don't think that this was the intent of those who found it expedient to have this guy take the old dirt nap.

PA

Druid

(09/13/2003; 20:37:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108609)

Credit Manufacturers are Ramping Up

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp"Milton Friedman interviewed this week on CNBC: "I don't believe there is any New Economy at all in that sense (unique surge in productivity). There was the same talk in the 1920's. The 1920s were a period very much like the 1990s in which we had a tremendous surge of productivity in the United States during that ten year period. This time the big difference is in the way in which the Federal Reserve handled the monetary reaction. And as a result, you had a very mild recession and there was nothing to cut productivity down drastically."

It is certainly no coincidence that so-called productivity "miracles" were trumpeted during respective 1920s and 1990s Credit Bubbles. Simplistically, Credit and speculative excess, along with resulting asset inflation, stoked abnormal spending (business and consumer) and "output" (including "upscale" and luxury goods and services). And, especially after examining recent Credit data, it is not the least bit surprising that talk of the Productivity miracle has gone "parabolic." This is, after all, consistent with the blow-off stage of the Great Credit Bubble. Everything seems to lose its bearings.

Dr. Friedman's calamitous error (which is perfectly consistent with his flawed analysis of the causes of the Great Depression) is to believe that the Fed has "handled" the situation adeptly and successfully. Dr. Freidman, along with so many others, is analyzing the situation incorrectly. The reality of the situation is that the Fed has not "handled" anything other than prolonging an increasingly dangerous Bubble.

Any serious analyst - operating from a sound analytical framework - delving into the Fed's "flow of funds" data can come to some important conclusions. First, there is no mystery surrounding the economic pickup; it's conspicuously induced by unprecedented Credit excess. The "mystery" is why the economy is not much stronger. Second, with Credit expanding dramatically in excess of investment or even economic (distorted as it is) "output," rising asset prices (stocks and real estate, in particular) also do not constitute an enigma. There is today unprecedented liquidity fueling destabilizing asset inflation. Third, Credit and speculative excesses have reached unprecedented extremes. Total Credit Market Borrowings (in excess of $32 Trillion, or three times GDP) are now expanding at a rate close to 10%, with Non-financial debt growing at low double-digits. Textbook Blow-off.

What is admittedly not clear is the duration of this fateful blow-off phase. There are clearly powerful forces at work sustaining this historic Bubble. But uncertainty does not mean this "Cassandra" will back down. For too many years we've witnessed the unstable U.S. and global financial systems nurture repeated "miracle" booms and subsequent devastating busts. We watched repeated blow-offs, and their manic existence was measured in quarters and not years. Today, we're just witnessing The Big One. And there is simply no way around the very harsh reality that current extraordinary Credit and speculative excesses are setting the stage for financial and economic instability unlike anything experienced in a very long time. Rampant asset inflation and lurching economies are seductively un-enduring inflationary manifestations."

Druid: Man! They have got the credit spigot wide open. Won't work, nope, it's the same voodoo from times past. The additional credit is chasing yield in the form of other short term investments domestically and any major serious investment is moved offshore. Good luck all.

mikal

(09/13/2003; 20:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108610)

Creditworthiness not to be taken for granted

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr091203.shtml$87 BILLION
WHY THE COMMOTION?
By: Ed Henry
Ever since President Bush's Sunday night speech where he said: "I will ask Congress for $87 billion to carry out the war on terrorism" the media and news people have been abuzz with questions. Suddenly, there is all sorts of concern over where the money will go, how much is needed for this and that, why it's so much, what will Congress do, will more be needed, and how are we going to pay for all of this?
It's wonderful that the so-called watchdogs are finally taking an interest in government accounts, but why now? The national debt has already gone up $584 billion as of September 5th and there's more than three weeks left in the fiscal year. No one seems too concerned about that, and it's the real deficit because it includes what the government has borrowed/stolen from entitlements like Social Security.

In the last eleven months, did President Bush ask Congress for permission to borrow $426 billion from investors? Why would it suddenly be necessary to do so now?
Is Congress sitting on a batch of money? Is Bush asking for $87 billion of this stash? If so, then why are we running deficits? A deficit is when the government spends more money than it has in tax receipts, its only source of revenue besides borrowing.
The news has it that Congress will approve the $87 billion anyway, but what difference does their approval make? Congress has already proven itself irrelevant on most major issues like war and foreign policy.
Something is very screwy here. All I can do is hypothesize about why there is this sudden interest in $89 billion more to fight terrorism. Has anyone bothered to put together what the war on terrorism has already cost us?
Maybe, after it's so obvious that Bush and his henchmen lied to us about "weapons of mass destruction" day after day for months on end that people simply don't trust him any more. With his approval rating plummeting like an elevator with its wires cut, maybe people are starting to question everything he says. It could be that simplistic.
Perhaps the hubbub about $87 billion more is a deliberate prelude to giving in to the democrats and rescinding the Bush income tax cuts. Failing to get financial help from nations that were opposed to our invasion in the first place, left with our "go it alone" arrogance and having opened up a guerilla battlefield for everyone that hates us, and needing to restore the infrastructure we so thoroughly destroyed in Iraq would certainly make taking back the benefits of a tax cut seem reasonable, would it not? After all, you don't want them coming over here "on our streets" now do you?
If the income tax cuts and restructuring brackets were a "stimulus to the economy," what happens to our hard pressed nation when they are taken away?
No doubt, Bush would like to put the $87 billion on the backs of future generations by borrowing more money, but there are problems there too. The bond market is in trouble that has been described as a "perfect storm" with investors starting to reject treasuries as the safest place for their money and the big mortgage houses like Fannie Mae being overextended in derivatives. The Bush administration is finding it more and more difficult to borrow as much money as they would like.
Just the other day, Wednesday, September 10th, the Treasury put $33 billion worth of 5-year notes on the auction block and only $11.8 billion were sold to investors.
Hey, how long did the borrowholics think this constitutionally provided "emergency" credit card would be unrestricted?
Maybe Bush is asking Congress to include the $87 billion in the 2004 budget where he is already planning a $485 billion deficit. Would this then go in as an increase to the Defense budget, jumping it to almost $500 billion? He would definitely need the approval of Congress to do that.
Worse yet, he could be asking Congress to take this $87 billion out of discretionary spending that has already been decimated this year. Next year, it would mean putting even more of a burden on States and local governments that are already strapped by shortfalls due to his refusal to deliver on social programs like education, health care, housing, and so forth, not to mention what it does to the public.
There are much more heinous possibilities.
Every time the Bush administration and the New World Order find themselves in trouble we are hit with a calamity from left field. And the Bush administration is definitely in trouble today.
The first time it happened was September 11, 2001, and that disaster could hardly have come at a better time for the U.S. government. After years of ripping-off American worker's retirement and health care money, the Social Security "Pay-It-Again Sam" scam was coming unraveled.
You might want to review the archives of some of the news from July, August, and the first ten days of September immediately preceding that attack. And it wasn't the trillions of dollars involved that threatened the Beltways Bandits� it was the potential loss of power.
If the New World Order loses its pawns in elected office, it cannot carry out its plans for an American empire.
The second calamity came in the form of private sector corporations found distorting their profit picture in order to entice investors into buying their stock. Hiding debt in dummy subsidiaries, double bookkeeping, and other accounting tricks were uncovered as the reason millions of investors losing millions of dollars.
When a few economists and commentators began drawing comparisons between Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, Tyco, and other private sector cheaters and the federal government's own accounting tricks, trust funds, and fraud�we were suddenly faced with the need to "Attack Iraq." Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Saddam Hussein replaced the search for Osama bin Laden whom we falsely accused of working together.
What's next?
Now that we've squandered the world sympathy we had after 9/11 by conducting an invasion that was absolutely unnecessary and illegal, now that we've alienated "old Europe" the United Nations and the Security Council, now that we are caught in a quagmire of our own making, and now that we are committed to rebuilding the Iraqi and the Afghan infrastructures we so systematically destroyed, what can you expect next?
Add in the "Roadmap to Peace" between Israel and Palestine that has floundered on potholes, barricades, road blocks, and detours, plus our stand against North Korea while we ourselves plan to resume nuclear testing, put nukes in space, and the development of "field nukes" and you've got an American foreign policy that can fairly be described as an arrogant disaster that's driving us into bankruptcy.
It's not pleasant, in fact it's nauseating to imply that our own representative government may have had a hand in 9/11, but before writing the idea off as nonsense you might want to review commentaries like "September 11th And The Bush Administration, compelling evidence for complicity" and Dr. Olmstead's "Autopsy: No Arabs on Flight 77" for starters.
You might also want to review the "Not In Our Name" declaration by people who, before the invasion of Iraq, predicted almost exactly what's happening today.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

cockerel1

(09/13/2003; 21:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108611)

$$$$368.50$$$$

The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore,and the Mighty Learned Men and Women who command a presence around it, openly welcome all and give unselfishly of their time and bountiful knowledge to assist the likes of the writer and his "ilk" to better understand the "golden aura" that emanates from understanding the lure and importance of "true money."

May you forever prosper.

mikal

(09/13/2003; 22:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108612)

Watching gold perform inimitably as cycles and circumstances converge

http://www.gold-eagle.com/bonner091503.htmlThe Daily Reckoning PRESENTS:
Investors are up and running...but whither do they go?
Bill Bonner weighs in with his judgment, below.
FLIGHT TO IMBECILITY -Bill Bonner
Snippit: "And there is the spectacle of people mortgaging their houses for more than they are worth; what do we make of that? Who is the greater fool...the borrower, or the lender? It is hard to say; both seem to be headed towards a disaster. Theoretically, the lender is the expert; the borrower is the rube. But, in their flight to mediocrity, mortgage lenders have reached further and further for yield - going after more and more marginal credit risks. Haven't they created a situation in which both sides could be losers?
The lender stands to lose from a boost in inflation rates. Inflation would collapse the value of a fixed-rate mortgage.
But inflation is no sure thing. The homeowner stands to lose, too. Jobs are disappearing. Pay levels are stagnating. Deflation would make it harder for him to make his mortgage payments. And if his house fell in value, maybe he wouldn't want to.
An adjustable rate mechanism would protect the lender from inflation...but then again, not if the borrower can't pay.
In a real crisis, over-stretched homeowners couldn't continue servicing their mortgages. Already going bankrupt at the highest rates in recent history, millions more could go down if a genuine recession were to begin. Most likely, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other mortgage lenders would soon be insolvent, too."
God, gold, grub(food), and gobs of good luck- Get you some!

mikal

(09/13/2003; 22:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108613)

Correct link

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/bonner091503.htmlLink

Liberty Head

(09/13/2003; 22:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108614)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

We've been floating on the fiat seas for so long, many have lost touch with the underling reality.
Just as all the world's oceans float on top of terra firma, our liquid economy requires an underling terra firma for relativities sake.
Otherwise, we are endlessly trying to make everything real compared to what.
There is nothing better than some stormy weather to get folks looking for terra firma. Our war in Iraq will bring us Cape Horn style stormy weather soon. Gold is terra firma par excellence.

Har maties and shiver me timbers, Tierra Del Fuego Ho.

Gandalf the White

(09/14/2003; 00:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108615)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

(09/14/2003; 01:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108616)

Orlin Grabbe on Olaf Palme

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/cr_drugs2.htmA rumour at the net.

Belgian

(09/14/2003; 02:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108617)

@ silvercollector...."THE" dollar-question.... #msg108607

500 pages A/FOA archives (and more).....only at CPM -USAGOLD!Indeed Sir, your "open" dollar-question is *THE* one and only that should be answered again and AGAIN !
But you made one BIG mistake in your question...! The US$ is NOT only the currency of the US...BUT THE WOLRD'S RESERVE CURRENCY ! Not President Bush or the FED are the sole managers of the dollar-reserve...But the whole world is definitely dollar-involved and this to an ever and fast, increasing extend !!!

IF and WHEN, non US dollar-holders, stop supporting-using the dollar-reserve...we will witness some very dramatic changes in global balances !

That's why I would like to rephrase your question : How much room has the dollar left to manage its own fate, short and long term ??? Or, to what extend does the world's economy (economies) needs the dollar as to continue to prosper ?

Indeed, silvercollector...How much *choice* is left for the dollar's US-home-managers ? Ignore the influences of what you call "free-markets". There is not such a thing as a dollar-free-market in the real sense of "free" !
The dollar-reserve (not the US-currency) is "the" most political (floating) currency around wich, all other currencies have to float.

All our discussions are in fact an evolving assesment of the dollar-reserve's room for maneuvering. The Swedisch (euro) assasination,...the real 9/11,...Iraq and the ME,...the euro, oil and gold,...etc, are impacting the dollar's management and intrinsic significance.

There is an increasingly growing amount of many different reasons why the dollar should be "questioned" !!! But this questioning happens extremely and unpublicly, silent, for obvious reasons. Your (our) dollar-question will always remain, an open (unanswered) one. One can talk (wish) the dollar UP whilst it goes DOWN (against its main competitor) for more convenient reasons ! The "floating" of a currency, means that a currency should be managable, politicaly, according to circumstances !

Local US policies versus geopolitical consensusses. Bush (the FED) versus the world.

A declining dollar exchange rate will not rejuvenate, substantionly, the US or global economy, imo. In order to keep the global economy growing (moving), the dollar-system was concepted to have a *strong* dollar. Can the dollar afford some "controlled" weakness and keep the world's economy (US internal economy included) remain in balance ? I doubt it.

A/FOA...The increasing "mis-management" of the dollar by the dollar-printers, undermines the dollar, further and further, in its reserve-status !

Any central bank (FED) that issues bonds and buys back bonds to the present (future) extend, is making a mockery of its currency management. During the past and present decades, we not only saw/see dollar-expansion but "DOLLAR_FLOODINGS" . That's why the dollar exchange rate and later on the dollar purchasing power cannot remain within reasonable-workable limits. We are only at a loss in a possible "timing" of such a final break down.

Back to your question and an answer about a possible dollar-outlook for '04 (election-year) : The dollar "IS" already weakening ! Better,...is allowed by non US$-holders to weaken and as long as this weakening is happening in an orderly manner...we have evidence that the dollar remains supported (used) by the world's dollar-reserve holders.
Consensus goes that a 25% cheaper dollar against the euro is OK, for the time being.

We will see if (and when) this is going to resort any positive effect on global (and in particular the US) economy and employment !!!-??? Will it help the present Bush administration increasing its re-election chances ? I doubt it very strongly.

I suspect that the further demand for 9/11 investigations might come in the forefront !? Some nasty-worrisome rumors, on this subject, are circulating in Germany. If the escalating situation (grave impasse) in the ME remains what it is...funny things could happen and have serious consequences on the "general" dollar-management.

sophmore

(09/14/2003; 06:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108618)

The New Bull Market in Gold? YES!

$$$$ 381.00 $$$$

First time poster, Lurker 4 years.

The billions and trillions of debt in the U.S. is being noticed by a few more people every day. There is a creeping awareness of PM's which will in time rise to a staccato.

In the book, "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations", by David S. Landes, one chapter deals with Spain about 500 years ago. An erie similarity between Spain and the U.S. becomes obvious. Spain had too much money (gold from America). It produced almost nothing but imported almost everything. Education was poor at best. All nations were considered inferior to Spain. The nation became poor because it had too much money. They ran out of gold and went bankrupt. The U.S. prints too much money and one day they will run out of it (no one will accept it). PM's will be the only monies.

With this basic understanding, this mighty Oaken Table of Yore is indeed helpful in the comprehension of where we are roughly at the present time. This forum posts from an intellectual point of view and not from an emotional. Most contributors make a point, give a reason and proof - wonderful!

Hope I win!

KB

Toolie

(09/14/2003; 07:02:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108619)

silvercollector

Think about where the 2.7 million job losses have occurred, then consider this. Bush won the following states by slim margins, AR=50K (margin) -3 electoral votes,
FL=500-25 electoral votes, IN=350K-12 electoral votes, MO=78K-11 electoral votes, OH=265K-21 electoral votes, TN=80K-11 electoral votes, VA=220K-13 electoral votes.

Al Gore won these "rust belt" states in 2000. IL-22 electoral votes, IA-7 electoral votes, MI-18 electoral votes, MN-10 electoral votes, PA-23 electoral votes and WI-11 electoral votes. MI & WI were considered "toss up" states to the last. Bush can forget about them, as these states need a weak dollar.

The South East states are Republican territory but Bush will find unexpected opposition resulting from the fall of tariffs on textiles. He will find himself fighting for NC and SC.

Bush will likely try to hold the strong dollar until the election is passed. He will offer to spend more money on tax breaks for manufacturers. Retraining for the newly unemployed, and give his "solemn promise" to rebuild the manufacturing base. Expand the number of countries that are willing to hold large dollar reserves, i.e.... more free trade agreements. A weak dollar now would cause a great deal of anxiety in non-import sensitive states and have little time to improve the "rust belt/textile" economies. To the extent that he has a choice, a slowly weakening dollar is his best hope.

When the dollar does fall, make sure you have a golden shelter. A single Oz. of gold can be pounded to cover 300 square feet. How big is your shelter going to be?

Usul

(09/14/2003; 08:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108620)

Corporate pride

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1041430,00.htmlAn exhaustive internet trawl shows the biggest braggarts are often the biggest losers, says stock market historian David Schwartz [Link]

Usul

(09/14/2003; 08:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108621)

Batten down the hatches...

http://www.thisismoney.com/20030912/ht67707.html'We already have record levels of debt in this country, with around 75 people going bankrupt every day. It is only going to get worse if people believe it is easy to wipe the slate clean after the event'

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/14/2003; 08:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108622)

A solid gold education in 175 pages for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

jenika

(09/14/2003; 08:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108623)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

An advertisment for a buyer wanting 3,000 metric ton of gold seems like a good indicator for me.
http://www.goldbullionbuyers.com/procedures.htm

Paper Avalanche

(09/14/2003; 08:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108624)

No Inflaion?

Aside from the fact that the whores on CNBC religiously spout the govenrment lies regarding inflation, I believe that the moment of "general awarenes" (specifically, when Joe Six Pack is even to discren inflation on a daily basis) is either upon us or just months away. I say this because, while Joe may not have noticed healthcare rising 20+%, education 30+% and other services going through the roof, there is one thing that Joe knows well. That is what it costs to eat at McDonalds. I went to Mickey D's yesterday and my jaw dropped when I saw the cost of everything. I had noticed a few months back that prices were creeping up. Now they are racing up. A large milkshake is $3.50 (plus tax that's almost $4.00 here). $3.50 for a large milkshake. A large drink is almost $2.00. Super size fries are $2.50. A 20 piece McNugget is $5.00.

I believe that perception is reality. Until now Joe may have had a feeling that things might be going up but was never really able to have a concrete metric by which to measure such a thought. Now he does. Compound the rising cost of stuff with the 10+% unemployment (using real statistics, not what is used by politicians) and you have a textbook example of stagflation. Joe and his friends will likely not vote for the incumbent next year because they want someone who can deliver a better economic situation for the country........unless there is a war.

Iran has until Halloween to "comply" with UN demands for nuclear inspections.

The stage is being set IMO.

PA

Toolie

(09/14/2003; 09:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108625)

Oil stockpiles logical move for Asia ....or.... Top off your gas cans now!

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/27733.htmlSnip:
That Asia is a huge net importer of oil is not a revelation. Japan, for instance, relies on imports for 100% of its oil requirements. China is
not as badly positioned � it only needs to import around 40% of its domestic needs. India and Korea also rely heavily on oil imports.

Data on the Asia-Pacific Region's share of oil markets reinforces the vulnerability of the region. While the APR accounts for around 28%
of the world's oil consumption, and this is likely to grow significantly over time (International Energy Agency data suggests that Asia accounted for over 50% of world growth in the demand for oil since 1998), the region only accounts for around 11% of production and around 4% of oil reserves.

......................
Governments have learnt a significant lesson from the recent sustained run-up in oil prices. They would, therefore, be wise to look for opportunities to build strategic oil reserves in the future. As the region becomes wealthier, such an insurance policy becomes more likely.

Indeed, China has already identified four sites for such stockpiles to be held, with the storage tanks to be completed by the end of 2005. Of course, one could suggest that this would be a good alternative for FX intervention as it would reduce trade and current account surpluses and reduce upward pressure on regional currencies, both physically and via international pressure.

Druid

(09/14/2003; 10:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108626)

Paper Avalanche (9/14/03; 08:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108624)

Reference Inflation?Druid: Are large delivery pizzas shrinking while prices are either staying constant or going up? Are certain sub sandwiches getting smaller yet charging a higher price? My 10 year old son brought it to me and my wife's attention that the beans in our Pork N Beans dish were a lot smaller. Since we eat them so infrequently, I really couldn't tell from a comparison standpoint but they were pretty damn small. Interest has to be paid and margins have to be met. So while the cartel of wall street and government steal from the productive sector, the stealing is just passed on down to each of us. Good luck all.

Cometose

(09/14/2003; 10:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108627)

Denver Real Estate Market

Have a friend who is an appraiser; been in Denver market last 20 years......I speak to him pretty regularly...
Last week we spoke and he told me that in the last three weeks , he had had one request for an appraisal.....In the heyday a couple of years ago , he was doing 15 in a week....that's a lot.....average I'd guess was eight.....

This commentary brought to you by REALITY STATISTICS from people in the REAL WORLD...far from the IVORY TOWERS of Washington and Wall STREET....where the BLS and other agencies paint fairytales with their majic wands .....

I've got good news and bad news.....first the bad news...the lies are going to keep coming to cover up all the bad poopicah that is seeping up from the gutters all around us......THe good news is that when the BAD BOYS IN WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET want to put in a MAGICAL FIX they're going to call on a SPECIAL FIX IT PERSON ( who you should beware and know is a counterfiet; trust yourself and prepare yourself for your own future) and you will be able to identify this person really easily because ......HE IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE , ACT LIKE , and BE LIKE HARRY POTTER....At that point in time when this occurs, we will all have to fight to take back our country from unknown movers and shakers.......

DID I hear a rumor on this sight that we now know the motive for the assasination of JFK......Is it all becoming very clear that the people that run the FEDERAL RESERVE BANKING SYSTEM are the enemies of fourth branch of our republican form of government : the voters....

Is there a secret plan that those behind the Scenes , who are pullilng the strings of the Marionettes have for us all that we are not privy to......?????

Is it true that many of the peoples of the rest of the world are aware of these machinations and are fed up and as one prong in a strategy to defeat the unseen enemy and unknown puppetmasters have decided that honest money (SILVER AND GOLD) is critical step to undermine the diabolical attempts of the ELITIST Bankers and their Buddies to control the WORLD and enslave it's peoples....

SHOULD the CASE of "WHO KILLED JFK? " be reopened starting with billboards accross the country with this question on them linked to a website that sights strong evidence...

WILL THIS PRECIPITATE a RUSH TO THE METALS when the masses discover that they have been played as pawns and decieved by massive coverups .......ARE THERE OTHER DECEPTIONS THAT SHOULD BE UNCOVERED......?

IS there a WIZARDA(S) behind a curtain here who needs to be found out and dethroned......

We are living in mighty interesting times....folks.....
STAY TUNED as the WORLD'S CITIXENS UNITE IN SOLIDARITY against .....the SHADOW OF DARKNESS

glennh10

(09/14/2003; 11:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108629)

Prices at Mickey D's - 1969

For all the retirement hopefuls:

Hamburger 20�
Cheeseburger 25�
Double burger 39�
Double cheeseburger 49�
Big Mac 49�
Filet of Fish 35�
Fries 20�
Small coke 10�
Large coke 15�
Milk shake 30�
Coffee 12�
Milk 15�

Plus 4% to 5% sales tax (CA)

So much for successful dollar management.

Robert

(09/14/2003; 11:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108631)

The US Dollar, Sir Belgian,

is not being held by foreign central banks because these countries intend to buy future US exports (cars, computers, financial services etc). These countries desperately need US Dollars in order to pay for essential commodities like oil, natural gas, other minerals (including metals), basic agricultural products etc. The USA does not export these things, to the contrary, the US is forced to import these basic commodities itself at an increasing rate. The value of the US is therefore not based on the ability of the US economy to produce and deliver real goods to the world markets. I think every central banker understands that. The value of the US Dollar is based on the ability of the US to FORCE other countries to accept US Dollars as payment for their exports. In case of oil exporting countries this is being done via military power (latest example Iraq - Iran next). In case of first world countries, this is being done by dominating international institutions (Nato, IMF, world bank etc). Even wealthy European countries like Switzerland submit to financial demands (gold backing of the Swiss currency, Swiss banks reporting to the US tax authorities) by the US Treasury and the IMF. As long as the US defence budget rivals the combined defence efforts of the rest of the world, there is little risk that the value of the US Dollar will decline severely. It may decline against the Euro 10% to 20% (as id did in the late 1980's against the German Mark) but this is a normal market fluctuation and has nothing to do with a collapse. The US Dollar will continue to be the main reserve currency of the world for the forseeable future (at least another 10 years if not longer). The accumulation of US Dollar assets is akin to holding an insurance policy that you will always be able to buy essential goods on the world markets at affordable prices. The value of a currency is not based alone on fundamental economic considerations like trade deficits, government debt, total debt etc. Such textbook considerations apply only to countries of secondary importance (like the European Union and Japan) but not to THE superpower of the world.

Gandalf the White

(09/14/2003; 11:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108633)

WELCOME former LURKER -- Sir Sophmore !!!

sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618)
---
WELCOME Sir Sophmore !
Looks link you are ready for Post Grad Degrees now !
<;-)

Paper Avalanche

(09/14/2003; 11:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108634)

@ Druid

Ditto. I bought a bag of cashews last week. The price was the same, but they reduced the contents from 2.0 ounces to 1.5 ounces. Also, check out how much you get (or better yet, don't get) next time you buy some potato chips from a vending machine. Pretty soon all you wil get is one chip at this rate.

Pretty soon people are going to have to spend more time a) working or b) learning why this is occuring instead of watching ESPN and listening to sports talk radio all day.

Knowledge is what separates the masters from the slaves.

PA

(09/14/2003; 11:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108635)

The Debt Quagmire

A Washington Post-ABC News poll published this morning suggests that 60% of Americans do not approve of the $87 billion request by President Bush for the on-going mililary effort and reconstruction in Iraq.To what degree this disapproval reflects on the fiscal/budgetary habits of the United States government was not addressed. The poll results implied that the public is more concerned about the lack of success in the takeover of Iraq than it is the effects on the national finances. For example, the poll also found that Americans think that if Congress approves the additional money for Iraq, it should simultaneously roll-back the Bush tax cuts -- a twist in the results that tellingly reveals the bias of the poll. As I mentioned in my QuickNotes column earlier in the week, the only concern Democrats have about the spending habits of the current administration and Congress is that they are not the one's governing the spending. They wouldn't have a problem with $500 billion deficits if the debt was dedicated to government social welfare programs.

Much of the apathy with the budget deficits can be traced to the public's general glazing over when confronted with any column of statistics, but there's another, more subtle (some would say more 'sinister') reason for the lack of understanding. This was illustrated in another (New York Times) article published in most of America's newspapers this morning under the headline: "Budget Shortfall to Require Trade-offs". The public doesn't understand because the press and politicians both have done little to promote just how deep and dangerous the over-spending has become. The true nature of the debt, in this way, has been "disinfected" -- cleaned-up for public consumption.

The NYTimes article is a case in point:

It starts off well pointing out that that "many of those who will actually pay that [$87 billion] bill were unable to watch." (A reference to our posterity) This of course is the same and famous imprecation first uttered by Thomas Jefferson roughly 200 years ago in his condemnation of government deb -- an indictment against those who would put future generations into debt to make their own lives more comfortable.* The article breaks down from there, and mostly because it glosses over the dangerous degree to which the United States is going into debt and utilizing the same formula the government does -- the one that comes to a final figure by first subtracting borrowings from the social security fund. In doing so the press, just like the government, misleads the American people by making them believe that this borrowing is somehow not really debt contracted by the government, but some magical source of revenue to which there is no attached liability.

In that article, for example, it is stated "there was a suplus of $281 billion in the budget that year [fiscal year 1991]" In reality the government added roughly $123 billion to the national debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 1991. That amounts to a $404 billion dollar swing. More eggregious than the piling-on of the debt is creating the illusion that the nation did not have a spending problem. All it proves is that that particular group of policiticians and bureacrats was more adept at hiding the serious nature of the problem than the current crop. At the time, the Bush administration confidently proclaimed that the nation would be running a $5.6 billion surplus by 2011 and that "all" the national debt would be paid off.

Even now, the Congressional Budget Office says the budget deficit will be $401 billion. In reality, the United States federal government has already added $582 billion to the national debt and we still have 20 days to go in the fiscal year. At the current rate -- adding about $2 billion per day -- the US will end the fiscal year adding almost $625 billion to the national debt, a far cry from what CBO is telling the American people.

The real solution to the budget/debt mess is to reduce the size of the federal government spending operations by at least one-third -- something the career politicians in either political party are loathe to do. At the same time,the press is equally loathe to tell it like it is since it makes its living covering the politicians. Their relationship is symbiotic. If the government is reduced, the number of people covering it will be reduced. (Smaller government?? Fewer journalists?? Less News?? Less meaningless discussion that dances around the facts?? How could anyone be opposed to that??) But what is needed and what will be done, as we all know by now, are two different things in this most political and media-washed eras of history. That is why gold makes more sense than ever, as the nation moves progessively deeper into the realm of denial. The words 'quagmire', 'impasse' and related descriptions are seen with increasing prominence in the national rhetoric. What many, now among the innocent, will come to realize in the months to come is that these terms do not apply to the war in Iraq alone, but in the national finances as well.

___

*"The misfortune [with deficits] is, that in the meantime we shall plunge ourselves in unextinguishable debt, and entail our posterity and inheritance of eternal taxes, which will bring our government and people into the condition of those of England, a nation of pikes and grudgeons, that latter bred merely as food for the former." Letter to James Monroe, January 1, 1815

Gandalf the White

(09/14/2003; 11:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108636)

WOWSERS Sir Sophmore !!! You have made me see the GOLDEN LIGHT !

sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618)Thanks for the DOUBLE CONTESTS Essay Post!
Really it was a TRIPLE, in that you made your FIRST Forum posting as the Essay Contest Essay, instantly won an one ounce U.S Silver Eagle (please notify Marie via email at marie@usagold.com),TOGETHER with including the required statement of the consideration of the OAKEN TABLE, and then entered the Price Of Gold prognostication CONTEST !
You therefore have made the Wiz create a new RULE !
--
IF a poster enters the Essay Contest and also answers the POG Contest requirements in the Essay statement -- the poster may also enter the Price prognostication along with the Essay !
AND, Therefore the former POG contest enty by Sir Runner is now accepted ! (eventhough it was in two postings.)
--
Thanks, Sir Sophmore!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/14/2003; 12:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108637)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get out your "Thinking Hat" and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Usul

(09/14/2003; 12:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108638)

The real reasons

You know, when I hear speculations concerning the real reasons behind events such as (for example) the death of JFK, or the renaming of "deep storage gold", or the death of a Swedish politician, I think of the few occasions when I have been on the inside of an event (albeit something trivial and personal) and have been able to hear the discussions of persons on the outside who were speculating as to the course of events. Usually in such circumstances, their analyses were way wide of the mark. And, by monitoring such discussions, those on the inside can take advantage by directing their future actions to exploit the information gap.

Liberty Head

(09/14/2003; 12:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108639)

Why Not? The last $87B was too easy

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030914/ap_on_go_pr_wh/cheney_5It's been one week and already $87B isn't enough.

After our military killed the Iraqi police it trained to take over, the timeline for withdrawl from Iraq became infinite.
So now the budget must also be infinite.

The third wave for the gold bull market will be a tsunami.

Whoop! There it is.

Best Wishes

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/14/2003; 14:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108640)

EURO VOTEING IN SWEDEN

RESULT:
NO : 56%
YES: 42%

Diviation: + - 0.3%

NEMO

Belgian

(09/14/2003; 14:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108641)

@ Robert (msg# 108631)

Every sunday, we get our regular dose of political tele-debates. When a bunch of old politicians gathers around the table and discuss geo-politics...I do listen without any zapping. Today, AGAIN, I hear, those old wise men-women, talk freely about how *mighty* the US is. All discussions-argumentations have that US-Superpower dogma in the background.

And right you are Robert,...the US is percepted by everyone as a Superpower and so is, mutatis mutantis, its dollar-currency and reserve fiat. As a rebel contrarian, I'm convinced we have been living with this "myth" for much too long now. I think that I'm not alone with this thought, although I have almost that same age of those experienced, retired politicians, with trainloads of experience. But they all still live in the past and think with a post WWII mentality.

And yes Sir, today, many (if not all) EMU politicians remain very insecure/doubtfull about the EU's (and euro) future !!! These honorable men are paralysed by the US-Superpower axioma as the main and only argument to accept, support and use the dollar as reserve-currency.

But that "super" only relates to * RELATIVE * military might
and the consequent capacity of being able to flood the globe with dollars, CONTINIOUSLY AND WITH INCREASING VIGOR !

Things are changing and people's memories about WWII and the Anglo-American interventions are rapidly fading, whilst the younger generations see the US from a complete different angle. Not only Eurolanders, the old one's that is, but also those 2 Billion (with B) people in the East and Far East. The US Superpower is NOT percepted as a liberator (WWII) or as a model (western capitalism-democracy).

Allow me ta make a few brief remarks on the content of your argumentation in msg#108613 :

- We don't "desperately" need more dollars ! We already have more than enough of these to such an extent that we can't spend them anymore on real goods and services.

- Every central banker knows that in a global contracting economy, dollars are fastly becoming worthless paper as is every currency on a dollar-system (dollar-derivative).

- If the US, unilaterally, attacks Iran, the Superpower will be regarded as much less "super" by an increasing amount of opponents.

- I am not so sure that the IMF and BIS will continue to co-exist in complete harmony, for much longer (your 10 yrs).

- US' "rising" defence budget will exhaust the dollar more rapidly (the perception of the dollar as reserve) to the euro's advance.

- The US$ declined 45% against the DM from its 1985 ATH to the ATL in 1995 !!! Is this a "normal" market fluctuation ???

- I am paying my stuff "worlwide" with euro as the currency of secondary importance...smile Robert :-)

Let me end with a final question: What makes you so confident that the dollar-reserve still has another decade to add to its lifetime, thanks to the expansion of the already enormous US defense budget ? 10 years is quite a long time to remain on a foot of war with an increasing number of "unknown" enemies ! Isn't it ?

Old Yeller

(09/14/2003; 15:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108642)

Belgian

Stay the course,a thousand points of light,the second half recovery.

Nation of Storytellers,the script is getting a bit stale though,isn't it?

steady

(09/14/2003; 15:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108643)

finally ..........dirham mentioned in same breath with dinar!

http://www.brudirect.com/DailyInfo/News/Archive/Sept03/130903/bb08.htmSeminar on gold dinar

The Centre for Islamic Banking, Finance and Management , Universiti Brunei Darussalam, will be holding a public seminar on "The Islamic Gold Dinar" at 8 am on Sept. 16 at the Chancellor's Hall, UBD.

The seminar aims to create awareness on the rile of the gold dinar as a means of trade settlement among nations, Muslims and non-Muslims, and to highlight initiatives to implement it.

The seminar also seeks to know if time has come for the Dinar and Dirham to replace the paper currency.

Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

R Powell

(09/14/2003; 16:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108644)

M.K. post 108635

I just read your "Debt Quaqmire" but I noticed you forgot to include a POG guess.
Happy weekend!

cockerel1

(09/14/2003; 17:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108645)

Tried and True!

When faced with such situations as:

Why is Fiat money in trouble and how will the situation be resolved? or who feared JFK the most, the most obvious questions to ask are:

Who stands (stood) to lose the most if the status quo remains(ed)?

and

How can the situation be fixed and who stands(stood) to gain the most from the solution(s)?

The most obvious answer is usually the solution to the situation(s).

All other information is "Red Herrings", IMHO.

Druid

(09/14/2003; 17:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108646)

Paper Avalanche (9/14/03; 11:41:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108634)

"Pretty soon people are going to have to spend more time a) working or b) learning why this is occuring instead of watching ESPN and listening to sports talk radio all day."

Druid: I know a lot of people working 60 to 80 hours a week just to stay in place. This second problem is almost impossible to penetrate because of its powerful perception and imagery construct. A HUGE part of our society live their lives vicariously through this voo-doo box and forget and/or do not understand that most of what is piped through that wire is entertainment and misdirection. I very rarely watch tv, but when I do, I am very particular as to who I select to have lie to me. Once this set of folks get priced out of what they deem to be important, then a revival of sorts may be at hand, but until then it could be a wait.

silvercollector

(09/14/2003; 17:30:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108647)

Hope everyone has had a great week-end.....

.....I get back from the 'cottage' and here's the 3 prominent 'Headlines'.

1) WTO talks collapse in failure..........

2) Israel prepared to kill Arafat.......

3) Sister of Venus & Serena Williams murdered........

What the hell is that?

The planet is euchred.

silvercollector

(09/14/2003; 17:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108648)

Cometose

You are indeed being melodramatic dear Sir!

silvercollector

(09/14/2003; 17:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108649)

Toolie

Glad you caught my question; you're #1 of 1!.

From your great message:

"Bush will likely try to hold the strong dollar until the election is passed........ To the extent that he has a choice, a slowly weakening dollar is his best hope.

When the dollar does fall, make sure you have a golden shelter........."

Sounds like what you are saying is Bush is 'skating' or maybe 'doomed' if you take a negative stance. It also sounds like a person might not want to take too firm a position until Nov. 2004 is behind us.

Is that what you are implying?

The Invisible Hand

(09/14/2003; 18:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108650)

Swedish (euro) confusion

http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art380SNIPS (from Saturday):
During just the last months there have been several acts of violence from mentally sick persons ...

Much of this is the result of the governments new policy regarding psychiatric treatment. They have reduced the number of patients in mental institutions from around 35 000 to around 6 000, claming it is better for the sick to get treatment when they are out in society rather than being held in institutions. The result of this new policy it that we now have a lot of homeless persons with mental problems walking around in society.
...
There has also been some other examples of government incompetence in connection with the murder.
...
Total confusion seems to bee the trademark of the Swedish system. And it is THIS we are paying some of the highest taxes in the world to get!

Druid

(09/14/2003; 18:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108651)

A Week with Richeb�cher in Cannes

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie091503.html"In the final week of August, I had the rare privilege of meeting Kurt Richeb�cher on invitation. He had read my "Ass-Backward Economics" series of articles. In a trans-Atlantic telephone call, he stated his appreciation for my grasp of the gravity of the situation. We each believe a breakdown in the US Economy is a certainty, our government statistics are replete with deceptive fraud, current imbalances are beyond remedy, and the world investment community is being drawn into a trap. He extends his view, expecting a catastrophic outcome for the world economy and its financial markets. All this time, in the back of my mind, I harbored a little voice telling me that I am a kook. In my recent article series, I had referred to Herr Richeb�cher as a "savvy former German banker, longstanding banking critic, and consistent maverick." I was flattered when he confirmed the legitimacy of my thought process and analysis. Now that little voice speaks in hushed tones. We are both mavericks, it seems. In the next few months, we will work on a new pursuit."

"My friends make up an army of soldiers, but no executives. I explained a lulu of an avenue recently brought to my disposal. I have been invited to indirectly pose questions to Alan Greenspan himself. A college roommate of mine used to work under House Rep Bernie Sanders in Vermont. He has urged me to write a white paper for Sanders, accompanied by 3-4 pointed questions. The time has come to put maximum pressure on our Fed Chairman. We mavericks must stick together. The topics Kurt and I arrived at for grilling Greenspan during the next Humphrey-Hawkins testimony would be:

1. hedonic pricing of computer system spending to distort and elevate GDP growth
2. money supply growth rising over 6 times faster than GDP, evidence of futility
3. dominance of financial sector debt growth, which yield no real economy benefits
4. concept of economic recovery with 5% trade gap is utterly ridiculous"

Druid: This is great read. We have a sneak peak at some questions that will be asked of Sir Maximus at the next Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.

Toolie

(09/14/2003; 19:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108652)

silvercollector

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/category/industryarticle.asp?feed=RTR&Date=20030912&ID=2862556Bush will have great difficulty winning any of the rust belt states, If he doesn't, we'll have a new president (congress too?). Speculation in local media is the new UAW contract will allow for plant closings that total 30-50,000 lost jobs(I have yet to find this in print). Consider this quote, link above; At this rate, "in five and a half years we will have zero manufacturing jobs in America," said Richard Dauch, incoming chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Then you asked, "It also sounds like a person might not want to take too firm a position until Nov. 2004 is behind us. Is that what you are implying?" I don't expect the big THUD in the dollar until after the election. Between now and then, the dollar will slowly fall, and I'll accumulate ALL the metal that I can.

Finally, My cottage is on a different planet too.

TownCrier

(09/14/2003; 20:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108653)

Danes for change as Swedes sway familiar

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030914/denmark_euro_1.htmlHEADLINE: Danish euro support widens as Swedes vote "No"

COPENHAGEN, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Almost fifty-seven percent of Danes want their country to join the European single currency, a poll showed on Sunday ... the "No" camp 33.6 percent ...

...80 percent of the interviewed Danes said a Swedish "No" would not have an effect on their attitude...

--------(from url)------

A majority of Danes now polled would like a referendum next year, having previously snubbed joining the single currency in a 53-47 vote just a short three years ago.

R.

mikal

(09/14/2003; 23:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108654)

Personal bankrupcies and household debt is up while retirement savings is down

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2003-09-14-middle-cover_x.htm"Middle Class Barely Treads Water"

Bull Moose

(09/14/2003; 23:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108655)

A New Bull Market

The new bull market is obvious when you look at all of the indicators available. Starting in 1976 we have been in a 24 year bear market that has been distinguished by an 8 year cycle of 3 years up, then 5 years down. This cycle has repeated 3 times until early 2001. In following the Elliott wave 5 count to the same concluding point in 2001, we see the expected up turn at that juncture. Furthermore, of the 4 major cycles that were in play at the time of the 1980, $800 spike, 2 of the primary ones are coming back into play in January 2004 (27 and 9 year) as well as the 40 week cycle and others of lesser influence. These cycles will project the price of gold well above the present levels in the year 2004. Of course there will first be a fall in the price near the end of the year. Finally, the debasement of the US dollar over the past 30 years along with the loss of the productive elementary business base leaves the eventual total destruction of the US economy inevitable. As the fiat dollar is destroyed the only place left for the prudent investor is the precious metals which assures a continued bull market in precious metals for the forseable future

Gandalf the White

(09/15/2003; 00:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108656)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(09/15/2003; 02:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108657)

$$$$$$ 8,752.00$$$$$$

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

2003.09.15: I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource because it enables me to know that a better world is possible. A world in which Aristotle's words, as amplified by Ayn Rand, that A = A are not constantly laughed at, at one's expense. A world in which there's also a yardstick to determine not only what a thing is, but also what its value is. Is value subjective? Yes that's why the seller and the buyer can agree on a price. What about a world in which there's no paper money and thus no welfare state? And thus no state whose populace may reject sound money out of fear of loss of the welfare state? If in such world, a politician who's known in advance to be on the losing side is killed by somebody who's not to be found after three or four days, it is known for sure that the killer was a professional, not a mentally disabled person. But why kill such a politician if not in order to increase the number of votes cast for his or her side? Or would a killing in such a world have nothing to do with party politics? Or is that only in this world?

steady

(09/15/2003; 05:53:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108658)

how to buy 1 ounce of gold for 103.80

http://www.islamicmint.com/buy 20 ounces of silver and wait!
when the ratio gets to the historic norm then trade the siver for gold. pretty simple. got time? got patience? you will have gold lots of it ,and will have acquired it at near rock bottom proces in fact cheaper than the bottom of gold.

According to Islamic Law...

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.

The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

Cavan Man

(09/15/2003; 07:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108659)

Weapons of Mass Disappearing

The official verdict is: NONEReport: Iraq weapons search update late

LONDON, Sept. 14 (UPI) -- A scheduled update on any Iraqi weapons of mass destruction is being delayed and the entire report may not be published, The Sunday Times of London reported.

There was no immediate response from U.S. officials, but the report that originated with British officials said the Anglo-American team of 1,400 scientists, military and intelligence experts has very little to report.

Their progress report on any biological, chemical and nuclear devices expected Monday will be delayed, the newspaper said, and the final report to be given the Central Intelligence Agency may not be made public.

The subject of Iraq's weapons capability has become very sensitive in London and Washington as critics have charged Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Bush exaggerated the capabilities to help justify the war.

CM Question: What's going on over there and how does this affect the physical gold market?

Waverider

(09/15/2003; 08:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108660)

Look beneath the golden gleam

Waverider: This is from FT registration....

Look beneath the golden gleam
By Tim Lee
Published: September 14 2003 20:51 | Last Updated: September 14 2003 20:51

"Optimism is stirring in financial markets and the US economy. Recent indicators have suggested that enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus is having an impact.

Stock markets have held on to substantial gains and bond yields have risen as forecasts for growth have been revised upwards. Supply-side arguments revolving round strong productivity trends are back in vogue, as is a tendency among analysts and market participants to ignore the implications of persisting global imbalances.

However, there is at least one warning sign that all is not well and that problems lie ahead for financial markets and the global economy.

This is the underlying strength of the gold markets, both bullion itself and gold mining shares. The gold price has risen from lows of close to $250 an ounce early in 2001 to almost $380 now. The increase has been prolonged enough to suggest the end of the previous long downward trend.

The increase in the price of gold has certainly not gone unnoticed but it has not been satisfactorily analysed.

Some commentators have seen it as a symptom of the risks posed to the financial system by the supposed threat of deflation, while others ascribe it purely to dollar weakness. Very few observers have taken the traditional view that the upturn in gold is a sign of nascent inflation pressures.

Most market participants seem to view gold's strength as having no longer-term significance, being merely the result of diversification by investors and accompanying speculative activity by hedge funds.

The conventional wisdom is likely to prove mistaken. The gold market may be relatively small but gold retains its significance as a longer-term monetary indicator. Contrary to a popular view, this importance does not depend on the whims of a few central bank governors and finance ministers but, rather, on the characteristics that have historically made gold a money, and that lie behind its long history as a monetary asset.

Looking back, the medium- and longer-term movements in the real gold price have contained information about the forces shaping the economy and financial markets. The difficulty, as always in economics, has been in understanding and correctly analysing those influences as they are occurring, rather than after the event.

For more than 100 years gold has experienced very long cycles in its real value (that is, its price relative to goods and services), but these long cycles have occurred around a constant level. That is, in a long-term sense the real gold price has tended to remain stable. (This was not true longer ago in history, when large gold discoveries had an impact). Around this stable real value there have been three extended periods of depressed real gold prices: the first from 1920 to 1933; the second in 1952-70; and the third the period that began in the mid-1990s.

The first of these coincides roughly with the monetary regime of the gold exchange standard and the second with the era of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. In both these periods, the price of gold was fixed by central banks and governments.

The difference between the two was that under the gold exchange, standard price levels in the economy were forced into alignment with the low fixed price for gold - meaning deflation - while under Bretton Woods, ultimately they were not. Central banks pursued expansionary monetary policies in the 1960s and early 1970s that were incompatible with the low price fixed for gold, until the system inevitably broke down, with inflationary consequences.

The third period of low real gold prices, which continues today, can also be attributed to the actions of central banks and governments; but the forces at work are more complex. Beginning in the mid-1990s, central banks and governments not only sold gold heavily from reserves and lent gold to short-sellers but their wider activities also encouraged excessive speculation in financial assets that further discouraged investment in gold. In the bubble environment of the 1990s, this helped create many of the "feedback loops" that sustained the financial bubble. For instance, low gold prices played a role in helping to suppress inflation expectations, which further encouraged the financial markets.

Arguably, the downward trend in the price of gold also helped to cement the dominance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and store of value. The strength of the dollar, in turn, was a further force keeping US inflation low even as the Federal Reserve implemented an increasingly loose policy. The weakness of gold until the end of the 1990s was therefore integral to the financial bubble environment, both as a cause and an effect of the inflation of financial asset prices.

This perspective leads to two main conclusions. First, the new upward trend in the gold price may well point to the fact that the post-bubble adjustment process still has some way to go. Second, particularly if it continues, it will be an indicator that Fed policy has indeed been too lax and ultimately inflationary. This implies that the Fed's latitude for policy action is becoming much narrower.

When these conclusions are added together, they suggest an outlook for the global economy, and both bond and stock markets, that is much less benign than the optimists would have us believe. Investors would do well to look more closely at gold's steady rise."

Cometose

(09/15/2003; 08:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108661)

SILVER

someone mentioned it last week and I want to reiterate it this morning

This is not based on closing prices but observations on random basis

Silver appears to be in backwardation this morning as the nearby price is higher that the December futures contract

and as my esteemed colleague indicated , it appears as though someone needs silver for september rather urgenltly ,
maybe Barrick

Lothar of the Hill People

(09/15/2003; 09:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108662)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

The fact of rise in POG since April 2000 alone does not necessarily trump the beginning of a Bull market.

However technical examination of the form of that rise coupled with:
-the unabated decline in the US and world economy,
-the continued decline in the $ and
-the modern impact to the world economy by the 4000 year
history of middle-east unrest
DO signal that we are indeed in a Bull Market in Gold!

Lothar suggests that this Bull market actually started in about Feb 2001--prior to that the market direction was unclear.

Beginning in Feb. 2001, the Gold 200 day MA formed a nearly straight linear incline at a constant rate which continues to this day. Since then, POG has had only a few short, minor digressions below it.

Also, the 100 day MA formed a recurring cycle of fairly constant periods of uninterrupted growth followed by periods of plateau, followed by another period of increase, and so on.

These observations, however, merely confirm the truth that was been revealed to Lothar and the Hill People in the entrails of the great albino bats which hide in the dark recesses of our secret ancestrial cave: the bull has begun!

Fare ye well, Lords and Ladies, for I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

Slowman

(09/15/2003; 09:12:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108663)

Why buy stocks

I bought some Conceo because I believed it would come out of bankruptcy. WELL, it did. But the judge ruled all previous stock is worthless and if you wanted to own it you had to purchase new stock not yet issued. Just shows how the bond holders Bought OFF the judge as their bonds aren't worthless but of less value.

This is another exapmle of why one should own physical gold and silver, buy it without paper work and sell it the same way. Don't think they will ever go to "O'.

Just another example of our corupt govt in action. Bet thos that are responsible for the companies failure get off scot free too!!!!!

mikal

(09/15/2003; 09:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108664)

POG "compromise"?

You could almost say that $375 has become one of those "resting places" for gold. Sort of like a good compromise between $350 and $400 that satisfies the bulls and the bears.
That is, it seems to keep the bulls from getting too much of a good thing and any ammunition that would overtax the bears, emotionally and physically. And $375 prevents the bears from making a solid case for lower POG, so everyone is in a standoff and TPTB can momentarily relax. Like they have at other key junctures such as $275, $300, etc.? To borrow one of their pet phrases: "It's different this time."

a nation of one

(09/15/2003; 10:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108665)

factors

That insiders have been selling stocks is significant.
That insiders are buying gold is also significant. These
two facts alone speak strongly, if not loudly, about what
insiders think of the US economy. I would rather place my
stake on the basis of these facts alone, than on all the
media puff, all the government pap, and all the public's
understanding.

admin

(09/15/2003; 10:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108666)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlNew QuickNotes

"..In the second opinion piece, John Dizard displays a curious "hold your nose and write about it" attitude toward the gold market, but does drop a bomb of sorts: There may be announcement by Barrick at the upcoming Denver Gold Group meeting that it has launched a "big de-hedging program.".... Inescapably, it appears, the article ends on a grudging positive note for gold ("....gold will probably rise again."...........One can audibly hear the sigh........."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/15/2003; 10:36:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108667)

Build your financial base. BULLION at one percent over our cost, FREE shipping on 25 ounces.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

mikal

(09/15/2003; 10:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108668)

@Waverider

Re: FT article. Nice catch!
The subject gets simplified a bit as anyone can see, but they're moving in the direction of Bloomberg, Business Week, Reuters and other mainstream news centers. It covers ground we've discussed here, that they need to state on record and for a certain public acknowledgement. It's a precedent that resembles the Fed's own Bernanke and Greenspan, when in recent statements expressed reservations about policy- the "unknown", management "limits", unforeseens and other previously taboo topics.
Resembles too the IMF's stated concerns with U.S. deficits, world economic stability and sustainability of numerous dollar reserve trends. Various BIS, EU and ECB spokesmen chime in from time to time. This and evidence such as your news story, reveal a consensus has formed long ago, and is unfolding in this period of our lives.
But notice the "G" word gets used more and more, and your article is one of a growing number that takes gold seriously as a money topic for today and tomorrow. I see the mainstream outlets gradually use less understatement, but though still scattered, get closer and closer to the mark!

DryWasher

(09/15/2003; 11:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108669)

$$$$$$ 377.0 $$$$$$

I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource because of the wealth of information and views on, or related to, economic issues which are presented here each day that helps me to further my understanding of these troubled times in which we now live, and it is that understanding, in turn, which reinforces my belief in the importance of PHYSICAL GOLD ownership.

TownCrier

(09/15/2003; 12:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108670)

Business as usual after the vote

http://www.ecb.int/press/03/pr030914en.htmECB Press release, 14 Sept 2003

Statement by President Duisenberg:

"I have taken note of the decision by the Swedish electorate in today's referendum. I acknowledge that a majority of the Swedish people is of the opinion that the euro should not be adopted as the currency of Sweden. This outcome of the referendum will neither have an impact on the European Central Bank's policies and operation nor on the euro's position. Furthermore, it will not affect the ongoing co-operation between Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank within the European System of Central Banks."

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/15/2003; 12:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108671)

Page Update!

TownCrier

(09/15/2003; 12:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108672)

Candid Duisenberg as EU finmins and ECB met with China, Japan; preamble to Dubai meeting of G7 and IMF

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030915/economy_euro_stresa_1.htmlOn exchange rates, ECB's Duisenberg said:

"The problem is much broader than China alone. That is why I deliberately did not mention that country. Unfortunately, virtually all if not all the East Asian countries which are the growth pole in the world have pegged their currencies to the dollar.

"As regards the euro area, I notice the euro has come back to levels in line with historical averages and the current account of the euro zone is broadly balanced so there is nothing to complain about."

Further, as regards the Dollar...

"At the Dubai meeting, there will no doubt be on the agenda the major imbalances that exist in the world. I am thinking of the tremendous U.S. current account deficit. An adjustment will have to take place. That will happen in the quantity or the price or both. By price I mean the exchange rate."

French FinMin Mer said:

"The problem for us in Europe is that we do not want to be the only ones to bear the burden of dollar adjustments, upwards or downwards. Many Asian currencies -- China's and indirectly Japan's -- are tagged to the dollar. When the dollar fluctuates it doesn't overly concern them and the scale of the fluctuation is essentially felt in Europe, which is undesirable."

German FinMin Deputy Koch-Weser said:

"... these are complex issues. I would strongly warn against easy solutions, particularly in the case of China.

"This is much more complex as we have learned in the IMF: the interaction between capital account liberalisation, domestic banking stability and exchange rates. Proper sequences will have to be observed. So I warn against facile solutions here and it should be discussed also in discreet ways and not publicly because you could even have counterproductive effects. But we are open to such a thoughtful dialogue with all our partners including Japan, China and east Asia. ...... I am only saying this has to be handled with great care because these are all interconnected -- financial systems, exchange rates and capital accounts."

Dutch FinMin Zalm said:

""I think it would be wise if the Chinese would switch to another kind of regime, for instance taking a basket into account ...... Especially since the European economy is not running very fast at the moment...upward pressure on the euro, from the point of timing, is a bit of a problem."

[Regarding the "basket" concept here, choosing mark-to-market gold as the reserve regime would act to insulate Europe from direct adverse effects of undue upward pressure upon the euro currency replacing the dollar's reserve status.]

"And of course, the problem is also that they have a very low inflation rate and they are a bit afraid of deflation, so an appreciation of the Chinese currency could lead to some more deflationary pressures."

[Hence, rising free-market gold to the rescue.]

(An overly earnest?) Italian FinMin Tremonti said:

"On forex we have decided to start an action but the content of the action has not yet been defined."

Toward which a Luxembourg's PM Juncker later said: "I dont know what Mr Tremonti said in his press briefing yesterday. I prefer to say nothing because I think it would have been preferable that he say nothing."

------(see url for article)------

Truly a fascinating study to treat us through this momentous phase in our long and seemingly uneventful international monetary evolution.

R.

DryWasher

(09/15/2003; 12:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108673)

War and Red Ink

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst091503.htmFrom Ron Paul's current weekly column, linked above, and right on target again. Well worth reading.

SNIP

"Even the White House concedes this spending will swell the single-year budget deficit to a record $525 billion. This is money the Treasury simply does not have, which means it must be borrowed, printed, or raised through taxes. None of these options are good for the American economy. It is especially sobering to consider just how much we eventually might spend in Iraq given our open-ended mission to rebuild it. A decade in Iraq easily could cost American taxpayers one trillion dollars and cause endless budget deficits."

Mr Gresham

(09/15/2003; 13:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108674)

Death of Social Security

(Thoughts upon conversation with elderly Walmart employees this A.M.)

Make no mistake about it: What the President announced last week was the end of any feasible Federal commitment to maintain the Social Security program (let alone Medicare, or other Federal retirement programs.) The demise of S.S. is certain. There will be no money.

In that, they are doing what Republican ideologues have promoted in crippling the Federal gov and its constituencies as any tool of future Democrat admistrations. Karl Rove would see this as appealing to the next generation as a Republican constituency, which expects to get little or nothing from SS anyway, and to finesse the inter-generational warfare that will arise from this collapse. (The sooner the better, they are probably thinking. Get it over with.)

Their only recent interest in SS was in privatizing it, and with that sinking into the deep, they'd just as soon scuttle it.

It will be cast as "personal responsibility": "What! You haven't built up your OWN retirement accounts to 500k?!? Your bad." And it will be masked with patriotic "wartime" slogans about "sacrifice", meaning "Shut up, you selfish Boomers! Go live in a trailer somewhere."

My forecast would be for a dollar-freezing of benefits -- end of COLAs -- as they inflate away the real value of those checks.

With a lapdog press, concerned only about maintaining "access" (and their own careers) there will be little complaint, beyond the "human interest" stories of elderly consumption of cat food and freezing in cold apartments. And it will be up to compassionate people, of all ages, challenged in their own hard times, to keep the level of suffering down.

But the pilfering of savings, of any sort, is irresistable to the Willie Sutton (a 1930s bank robber) types who know how to go "where the money is."

Mr Gresham

(09/15/2003; 13:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108675)

http://www.fingleton.net/Need I add, what this will do for the enthusiasm for gold, when it is realized just how completely under assault all the other forms of savings are?

It might seem a sad consolation, to have others driven to your point of view (and mode of saving) by such larcenous currents, but consider the alternative -- for you -- had you not adopted that early skepticism, and had you stayed with the herd prior to its stampeding.

Sadness aside, there will be a new, export-driven economy to build up (Bushites would see to it that it includes the final pillages of forests and fields alike), and your capital will jostle elbow to elbow in it with the takings of the dumb, the lucky, and the larcenous, and their descendents. No quaint morality will keep wolves and sheep apart, and just over the horizon will be the Chinese with their iron rule of austerity on everyone's standard of living.

May you leave room for individual acts of kindness in all this, having provided wisely for your own survival.

TownCrier

(09/15/2003; 15:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108676)

Tomorrow kicks off intensive week for monetary officials

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve meets Tuesday to assess the latest leanings in U.S. monetary policy. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank is scheduled to meet similarly on Thursday, September 18th.

On September 20 the world's bureaucratic monetary elite will begin meeting in Dubai, with a get-together of the G-7 Financial Ministers and Central Bank chiefs, a G-24 Minister gathering on Saturday and the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee coming together on Sunday. Monday offers additional opportunities for formal and informal meetings prior to the two-day IMF/WB Annual Meetings next Tuesday-Wednesday.

The big question on many gold market watcher's lips is "Is there anything to this rumor mill? Will a new "Dubai Agreement" preempt or supercede by one year the 4-year-old "Washington Agreement" on gold?"

We will know more as the days advance.

R.

Cavan Man

(09/15/2003; 16:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108678)

Town Crier

As an astute observer of the gold marketplace, do you find it "curious" the meeting is being held in Dubai (of all places)? Do you attach any significance to the venue?

Gandalf the White

(09/15/2003; 16:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108679)

KEEP the Faith == TOMORROW will be a GREAT day for the YELLOW ! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GLook at this chart on the US$ !
See that little black "spinning top" Candlestick and the large RED volume stick ?
KISS the Dollar goodbye !
<;-)

TownCrier

(09/15/2003; 16:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108680)

Cavan Man, Dubai UAE

My initial thought is to say no moreso than the Istanbul (1955), New Delhi (1958) and Nairobi (1973), in which the Annual Meetings previously came closest to the Middle-east as a setting. But now,here we are in the heart of it, and it is likely as meaningful as any other gesture might be in saying, "We came, we saw... we learned perhaps a thing or two while under your roof and we hope to return home with your good will".

But then, not being the one pulling the strings it is not my attachment of any (in)significance that matters. I would venture to say, however, that a "Dubai Agreement on Gold" has a more auspicious ring to it than any subsequent "Washington Agreement" again next autumn when we return to D.C..

Sorry I can't be of any more insight.

R.

ski

(09/15/2003; 17:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108681)

COMEX silver positions...

Sorry, link cannot be provided per forum rules
We are all aware of the huge futures postions that have recently been taken in gold, but what about silver?

Conclusion:

gold futures ...... interesting
silver futures .... UNBELIEVABLE!!

From Ted Butler article dated 9-16-03 (don't ask me?)

"The gross short position in COMEX (silver) futures and call options is truly epic ... Just over 900 million ounces. That's more an 50% greater than world annual mine production and SIX TIMES GREATER THAN ALL VISIBLE WORLD BULLION INVENTORY. Never has such a mismatch existed in any other commodity. Never."

Great Albino Bat

(09/15/2003; 18:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108682)

ON this and that...

The august E.U. finance ministers quoted at the recent meeting: they sound like Viennese Operetta ministers from Ruritania and neighboring kingdoms in a kind of "Merry Widow" farce. Now that they have concluded their weighty deliberations, they all adjourn to Maxim's for some bubbly, caviar, pat� with chilled Sauterne, etc. not to mention some pretty coccotes for entertainment. All paid for by taxpayers, of course.

The US Federal Deficit is to reach some $525 billion this year (excluding, incidental expenses for the Irak tarpit.)
This brings to mind that in 1980, the TOTAL "National" debt was....$900 billion. Yes, ONLY $900 billion.

This world of ours is held together with pins and needles, nothing more substantial. Got to get some more gold and silver, this thing is going to blow mucho hard.

Guano from the GAB. (Entrails off limits)

Robert

(09/15/2003; 18:41:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108683)

Belgian msg 108641

You asked "What makes you so confident that the dollar-reserve still has another decade to add to its lifetime, thanks to the expansion of the already enormous US defense budget ? 10 years is quite a long time to remain on a foot of war with an increasing number of "unknown" enemies ! Isn't it ?"

First, of all, thanks for responding to my post. To answer your question, nobody knows the future (and I am not a exception to that rule), however, looking at a long term chart of the Dollar Euro exchange rate one must admit that despite all the dramatic up and downs during the past 25 years, the Dollar buys today as many Euros as it did in 1978. Secondly, the talk about an imminent Dollar collapse is not new. I read about it already in the early 1980's. So although I share to a large extent all your concerns regarding the Dollar "reserve", I am realistic enough to admit that nothing dramatic will happen during the next 10 years.

Let's take a more specific look and consider the Dollar reserve held by the German central bank. I do not know the precise figure, but let's assume that the Bundesbank holds 500 billion in US$ paper (it can not be significantly more). As large as that figure looks, it translates into something like $6000 per German citizen. This is really not a substantial figure when measured against the average savings of the german people (in excess of 100,000 Euro per family). I think that the situation is quite similar in Belgium, Japan and other countries holding large Dollar "reserves". If you compare the national debt levels of Germany and the US, they are roughly the same (if compared as a percentage of the gross national product). The superpower status of the US today is not an accident in history. It is the result of at least 100 years of active US policies. The decline of the US power will therefore be also a long term process not something which happens in a few months. If I am not mistaken, the decline of the Roman empire took almost a century. Why should the history of the US be any different?

I have a question for you: During my recent vacation in Europe I noticed that contrary to other precious metals, the purchase of Gold coins is exempt from the VAT (value added tax). This was not always the case. I remember that 15 years ago, I had to pay sales taxes in Europe when buying a gold coin. Do you know anything about the political process which led to this tax free status of gold? I think this is an interesting hint for hidden Euro policies.

Subcomandante Tomas

(09/15/2003; 19:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108684)

Mutual Funds

Part of my portfolio is already in an IRA. I'm looking for mutual funds that most closely track the price of gold. Any suggestions?

steady

(09/15/2003; 20:13:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108685)

Gandalf can u hear it?

z u b a z o o m z u b a z o o m...

Druid

(09/15/2003; 20:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108686)

Global Bond Markets� Weakest Links And Monthly Default Rates

http://www.riskcenter.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=4945"The decline in the speculative-grade default rate has been accompanied by an easing of lending conditions, as reported in surveys conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In July/August, many fewer firms in theU.S. and in Europe reported tighter borrowing conditions compared with three months earlier. The declining default rates are still at odds with the current trends in the industrial sector, a testimony to the fact that the manufacturing sector remains a laggard in this current gradual recovery cycle."

Druid: Wow, I wonder if there is some sort of correlation between easy credit and fewer defaults?

turkey hunter

(09/15/2003; 20:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108687)

Now here is a wild gold story.

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/vancouversun/story.asp?id=50AB4B35-9959-4AC6-9C66-3C650DFE406E.......At the time, Chiang's Kuomintang movement faced a twin threat from the invading Japanese and Mao's communist rebels.

Chiang's wealthy KMT supporters, so the story goes, sent 125,000 tonnes of Chinese gold to the U.S. for safekeeping and were to be given the bonds in return.

But the plane carrying the bonds crashed shortly after stopping to refuel at the U.S. Clark air base in the Philippines.........

...............

See link for full story about this trial..

Druid

(09/15/2003; 21:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108688)

Robert (09/15/03; 18:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 108683)

Historical AnalysisDruid: Robert, I just want to interject because you bring up some very good points. The major problem I have with looking backward to get an idea where we might possibly be going in the future is the rate of speed today. Rome and all past empires weren't wired and interdependent like our playground is today. Thus you can pretty much compress the schedule to a few point and clicks. This probably is the major reasons for the circuit breakers used in aiding the home team. These circuit breakers allow for phone calls to to made and names to be taken(what b.... excuse do these guys give? something about "cooler heads to prevail"). Technology is so far ahead of pretty much every discipline(other then banking, they can enter digits to approach infinity at an alarming rate, should they choose to do so) that you have to come up with elaborate reasons to keep it harnessed. If it takes another 10 years for the "dollar" to decline, this has more to do with planning and politics then free markets and economics. The reason the 87 crash scared everybody had more to do the speed and depth of the problem then anything else. It was after this event that more technology was introduced to the NYSE and various committees and groups were formed to study and "assess" the problem. Rate of change and/or speed is a fairly important concept and for the life of me I can't find anything in history, as it pertains to markets, that remotely comes close to what has been constructed today via technology. There are a lot of similar if not identical games and strategies but not technologies.

mikal

(09/15/2003; 21:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108689)

Foreign adventures into the Twilight Zone

http://reese.king-online.com/Reese_20030917/index.phpFor Wednesday, September 17, 2003
Bush's Big Blunder
On Sept. 11, 2001, the United States was attacked by a single organization, al-Qaida, headed by Osama bin Laden.
We had not been attacked by North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Colombian guerrillas, Philippine guerrillas, the Taliban, Indonesian guerrillas, Muslims in general or anybody else. Just that one organization, al-Qaida, hit us.
Once that was ascertained, President George Bush should have told the American people that we were going to track down the members of that organization and kill them. I believe that was his original intention.
But a cabal of neoconservatives who had long had a plan to make the world safe for Israel and to turn America into an empire hijacked the president's mind, and instead of going after al-Qaida, the president declared war on all of the above. This was the president's big blunder.
In the first place, terrorism is a tactic, not an entity, and you really can't declare war on a tactic. Only a sovereign state can declare war or be the object of a declared war. Al-Qaida is a criminal gang of fanatics representing no one but themselves. They should be treated like a criminal gang.
By declaring war on terrorism in general, President Bush made enemies of people who were not our enemies. There was no world convention of terrorists that passed a resolution that stated "let's all go get the United States." Al-Qaida was our enemy. It was members of al-Qaida who had pulled off the first bombing of the World Trade Center, blown up our embassies in Africa and attacked the USS Cole.
Whether you want to call the others guerrillas or terrorists, they had their own agendas that had nothing to do with us. Hezbollah had driven the Israelis out of most of southern Lebanon; Hamas and Islamic Jihad are fighting against Israeli occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza; guerrillas in the Philippines, Colombia and Indonesia are like the Chechens, trying to overthrow existing governments. None of them was concerned with or about us. None of them had attacked us. None of them had threatened to attack us. (Hezbollah had attacked us when President Reagan put troops in Lebanon, but once we quit messing about in Lebanon, it left us alone.)
Al-Qaida, by the way, did not attack us because we are rich or free or democratic. Bin Laden spelled out the reasons explicitly in one of his videos (Al Sharpton has said that Osama has put out more videos than most rock stars). He listed three reasons: American military presence in Saudi Arabia, American mistreatment of the Iraqi people, and American support of Israel's mistreatment of the Palestinians.
Going to war with Iraq was part of the neoconservative grand strategy, but it has nothing to do with fighting terrorism. To say that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism is to tell another big, fat fib. Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the attack on the twin towers, hated Osama bin Laden and was hated by Osama. He supported the Palestinians, but there is no evidence linking him with any terrorist organization. The people killing and wounding our soldiers are Iraqis resisting occupation. The Geneva Convention states that anyone in an occupied country has a right to resist, and attacks against soldiers are not acts of terrorism.
At any rate, because of the cabal of neoconservatives and President Bush's big blunder, we are now in a literally endless war; we have attacked two sovereign nations, Afghanistan and Iraq; we have obligated ourselves to spend billions of dollars rebuilding those countries; we have not found bin Laden or Saddam Hussein; we have passed legislation that is a threat to American civil liberties; we have alienated key European allies; we have created a serious credibility problem by lying about weapons of mass destruction; and we have aggravated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by giving Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a green light to assassinate, reoccupy and brutalize the Palestinians under the guise of "fighting terrorism."
And worst of all, the president seems to have divorced himself from reality and is oblivious to what is really happening in the world.

ha_tey_o

(09/15/2003; 21:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108690)

$$$$$$ 395.10 $$$$$$

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore has been a source of valuable information and insight in not only the factors that influence the fiat price of gold, but also the political and economic regimes that influence our lives. USAGOLD has provided a wonderful service in hosting this board. Even though I rarely post, I read this site religiously and wish to say thanks for the existence of this site and all of the folks who post.

neer-do-well

(09/15/2003; 21:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108691)

Mikal

I agree with all the points you made except the last, the "worst " thing is about 50% of the american people still support him. Watch out for the next election....if there is one.

Beats me how people can belive anything he says, but then we've got the federal rerserve, irs etc....

ha_tey_o

(09/15/2003; 21:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108692)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.*******

Without a doubt, gold is well established in a new bull market in terms of the US dollar fiat system. From the $260's in early 2001, gold has made steady gains to its current level in the $370's. The bear market rallies of the 90's were marked by skyrocketing price gains followed by the slow grinding lower in price. For the past two years, the opposite has occurred with the price gains being comparatively slow and grinding but with the descent being a rapid cascade. All hallmarks of a young bull market. But these are just the technical characteristics of the gold bull market. This gold bull is but a calf still. The exponentially rising US national deficit compounded by the cost of war in Iraq and Afghanistan point to the inevitable fall in the value of the US dollar against other currencies. Yet, other countries are devaluing their currency to maintain parity with the dollar for trade export. This can only focus the attention of the astute in looking to gold as a safe haven to protect their savings. We will know that this bull has reached maturity when the "shoeshine boy" and "cabdriver" are extolling their "investments" in gold. This appears to be still far away in the future.

Druid

(09/15/2003; 21:54:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108693)

Capco Briefing - Money Has To Go Somewhere, Where Better Than The Euro?

http://www.riskcenter.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=4945Few people can actually justify the current appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar or the Sterling. And of course, similar to all other bubbles, there are commentators who can identify, albeit ex-post, the one indicator that can support their decision to invest. Today, it seems that the reason Euro is popular is that everyone has recognized that the economies it represents are in no worse shape than others. For example, www.bbc.co.uk/news stated on May the 9th, "..there seems to be a growing perception both that Europe is not that much worse-off than some other regions, and that policy-makers would like to see the euro gain in strength."

The fact is the Euro-based economies are much worse off than most other developed economies. The latest GDP growth rate for the Eurozone is 1.3%, (source: The Economist, May 2003), as compared to 2.1% for the U.S. and 2.3% for the U.K. Even Japan 's GDP growth rate is higher at 2.8%. Unemployment rates in the Eurozone countries are also much higher than the other major markets.

Druid: It's a little dated, but still, an interesting perspective from Lonon.

Druid

(09/15/2003; 22:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108694)

Middle class barely treads water

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=677&e=8&u=/usatoday/11851503
A generation ago, a typical American middle-class family lived on the income of a single breadwinner. In recent years it has taken two working spouses to live the modern middle-class dream. Now, it seems even that is not enough to survive the skyrocketing cost of housing, health care and college while saving for retirement and shouldering growing debt loads. (More background: Excerpt from The Two-Income Trap)

Bill and Terry Will of Chesapeake, Va., together earn about $70,000 a year, and yet it's a struggle to provide for their family and pay off their credit card debt. Terry, 44, is a nurse and Bill, 50, manages a warehouse that ships food and supplies to other countries.

The Wills have five children at home, ages 2 to 17. They budget every penny and have no savings, no college fund, no retirement nest egg.

Like many middle-class families often broadly defined as those earning $25,000 to $99,999 the Wills have little room to maneuver if something unexpected comes up. They barely survived when Bill's job as an oil company sales manager was eliminated in 1999. They came close to losing their home and nearly ended up in bankruptcy before they went to a non-profit credit counseling agency for help.

What happened to the Wills is being repeated in legions of middle-class homes across the USA. With personal bankruptcy at an all-time high, it's mostly the middle class that gets trapped: 92% of the record 1.6 million filers in the year ended June 30 were middle class, according to a Harvard University study.

The Wills acknowledge that they didn't know much about managing money before they went into debt counseling, but they didn't live beyond their means.

"We didn't have cable TV before, and we still don't," Terry says. "We used credit cards to pay for diapers, food and school stuff."

It may be hard to believe, but the average family of four spends 21% less on clothes and 22% less on food both at home and in restaurants than a similar family did a generation ago, according to a new book, The Two-Income Trap. And though families may spend more today on things like Internet services, DVDs and airline travel, those increases are offset by declines in other expenditures.

Instead of splurging on gourmet meals and designer clothing, families are spending more on essentials such as day care, housing and health insurance.

"Costs are rising quickly, and benefits that used to be provided by employers now must be provided by workers themselves, including health insurance and retirement," says Christian Weller, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

The average employee contribution toward health insurance premiums is $2,412 for family coverage this year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. That's a 13% increase over 2002.

Housing also is eating up more of the average family's budget. About 80% of low- and moderate-income homeowners spent more than half of their income on housing in 2001, according to the Center for Housing Policy. Many experts say no more than 36% of gross monthly income should go toward credit card bills, car payments and mortgages combined.

Druid: There is no inflation, we have to worry about DEFLATION.

slingshot

(09/15/2003; 22:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108695)

Midas Crusade

Almost a thousand riders assembled in front of the castle. Atop the castle walls the Goldbugs could see their flags flowing in the gentle breeze. One in particular remembered how fierce they were in battle, as they cut down with simple grace, a considerable force separated from the main army on the northern plain.
Although an alarm was sounded, the gate was to remain open. They did not show aggression. No swords were drawn. Instead they assembled in plain veiw,with a flag of truce.
The Castle gate was open to all who came in peace.
Sir M.K. and Sir Black Blade walked out and stood at the end of the bridge spanning the moat. The center rider dismounted and walked up to them.
I am Omar Khayyam. Leader of these warriors. I come here to band our forces together to fight the Dark Forces that have ravished our land, and soon to do the same to yours.
I come in peace.
Sir M.K. extended his hand and when Omar Khayyam took it he said, You are welcome here and may it be an everlasting friendship. A slight bow from Omar Khayyam in gratitude.
Come inside and enjoy my hospitality. Omar replied, I must attend to my men first. Agreed said Sir M.K. Turning to Sir Black Blade he said, Insure their needs are forfilled.

My Captain will work with your Knight and I will accept your offer when all is settled in my camp. I look forward to talking with one I have heard so much of, said Omar Khayyam.

Omar Khayyam mounted his horse and the three riders rode back into the lines. Orders were given and the lines broke in an orderly file and soon an encampment came to life.

Gandalf stood at the gate and when Sir M.K. came close to him he asked. What are your thoughts my friend.
They are Men of Honor, he replied.

The Goldbugs helped these new found friends in setting up camp. Each asking questions about their weapons of war. Horses, swords, bows and axes and demomstations in their use, abounded.
The Council Chamber would await their guest of Honor.
Slingshot---------------<>

slingshot

(09/15/2003; 23:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108696)

Thank You

@ Dollar Bill Msg# 108553. Thank you for you offer. Been very busy in preparation. Waiting for storm to pass 30 degrees latitude. The sooner the better.
@ Operative. Msg# 108517. Pen and paper always at hand.
Slingshot----------<>

ski

(09/15/2003; 23:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108697)

More on Comex Silver...

http://ww.financialsense.com/market/daily/monday.htm
Jim Puplava at financialsense.com did a good piece today on the Comex silver situation. See his daily wrap-up for Monday. Hope the link works.

ski

(09/16/2003; 00:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108698)

Silver link ...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/monday.htmSorry folks, I always seem to have a problem getting these web addresses done correctly.

Hopefully you can use the above link to access Jim Puplava's Comex silver article.

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 00:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108699)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
The above link is Puplava's Market Wrap Up. Pretty good one tonight and reflects much of what we have discussed and what's been in the DMR. Just this afternoon while at the gym I was thinking on this issue as well. Also, the last Great Depression the US dollar retained value because it was backed by gold and silver. This time the US dollar is backed by empty nondescript promises of something called "faith and credit" (whatever the hell that means). Precious metals are a screaming bargain even now competitive currency devaluation rages on among the major trading blocks.

While Lemmings are buying into the "jobless recovery" joke, corporate insiders are bailing out en masse in record insider sales. That does not give me much encouragement to say the least. When corporate executives are selling shares as fast as they can while Wall Street investment houses are propping up the market indices by buying and leveraging market futures options that should scare the bejesus outta ya. With PE ratios ranging from 30 to 50 times trailing earnings depending on what measure you follow (or believe), and the dubious predictions of recovery based on growth to GARP standards, then we should have to expect profit growth at anywhere from 100% to about 160% by year-end. Sorry, I just don't buy it and neither do the insiders.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(09/16/2003; 00:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108700)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe USAGOLD Forum "FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 00:55:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108701)

Is the Hardest-Hit Sector Rebounding??

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20030915/bs_nm/economy_dc
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. industrial output eked out only a tiny gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Monday, casting some doubt on recent signs the economy's hardest-hit sector was rebounding. Financial markets registered some disappointment with that data and other reports released on Monday on business inventories and the U.S. current account deficit, the widest measure of trade with other countries.

But some analysts worry the nation's outsized trade deficit will exert a drag. The Commerce Department's report on the current account deficit showed it virtually unchanged in the second quarter, near the record set in the first three months of the year. The gap in the current account narrowed marginally last quarter to $138.67 billion from an upwardly revised $138.71 billion in the first quarter.

Black Blade: Yep, and we are on track for an all time record current account deficit this year. Next quarter's current account is likely to be upwardly revised as well. The dollar is in crisis mode. These Wall Street euphemisms just crack me up � "jobless recovery" indeed! Get your portfolio insurance while you can � gold and silver.

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 01:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108702)

Bloated U.S. deficit could hurt economy

http://www.freep.com/money/business/tompor15_20030915.htm
Snippit:

An extra $87 billion in war spending in the next year could push up an already fat federal deficit and drag down economic growth in years ahead, if cuts aren't made elsewhere in the budget, some economists say. Large, lingering federal deficits would mean even higher interest rates in years ahead. More borrowing by the federal government could drive up rates for everyone. And it could make it more expensive to borrow for homeowners, small businesses and others. Some economists also worry that the spending on Iraq and fighting terrorism could go higher than the latest $87 billion and drive up the deficit further. The "$87 billion could simply be a down payment," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. And it could turn into the old "guns and butter" battle of the Vietnam War era. Too much government spending and too much debt would lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates and cut into economic prosperity. "A lot of us are concerned that this isn't the last of the special requests to preserve the peace in Iraq," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Standard Federal Bank of Troy.

Black Blade: I definitely see a hell of a lot more spending ahead and a soaring budget deficit that will never ever be paid down. The only possible outcome here is runaway inflation.

Operative

(09/16/2003; 01:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108703)

Istanbul Gold Exchange Opens

http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=13241Snip:

"Istanbul Gold Exchange
Anadolu Agency: 9/15/2003
-A TOTAL OF 1,330 KG OF GOLD SOLD IN FIRST SESSION
ISTANBUL - A total of 1,330 kg of gold was sold in the first session at the Istanbul Gold Exchange (IAB) on Monday.
The trading volume in the first session was 17 trillion 186 billion 208 million Turkish liras (TL) on TL-basis in 3 transactions, 609 thousand 707 U.S. dollars on U.S. dollar basis in 3 transactions and 2.69 million Euros in Euro basis in 10 transactions. "

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 01:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108704)

Middle class barely treads water

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2003-09-14-middle-cover_x.htm
Snippit:

Millions of middle-class families can no longer afford to live on two incomes. A generation ago, a typical American middle-class family lived on the income of a single breadwinner. In recent years it has taken two working spouses to live the modern middle-class dream. Now, it seems even that is not enough to survive the skyrocketing cost of housing, health care and college while saving for retirement and shouldering growing debt loads.

Black Blade: Not to worry, there is almost no inflation when you strip out necessary items (core rate). Why the BLS and the carnival barkers on Wall Street tell us everything is just peachy.

Operative

(09/16/2003; 01:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108705)

Islamic Gold Dinar Seminar

http://www.brunei-online.com/bb/mon/sep15h6.htmSnip:
"Islamic gold dinar seminar tomorrow
By Zan Hosni
A public seminar on "The Islamic Gold Dinar" is scheduled to take place on September 16 at the Chancellor's Hall of Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD).
The Islamic Gold Dinar seminar hopes to widen the scope of knowledge on the prospective role of the Gold Dinar as a means of trade settlement among nations, Muslims and non-Muslims.
Among the many objectives of the seminar will be to determine whether the time has come for the Dinar and Dirham to replace the paper currency."

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 01:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108706)

Data Show Job Jitters Are Closing Wallets

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/rebeccabyrne/10113222.html
Snippit:

Persistent weakness in the labor market is finally starting to weigh on the consumer. Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in early September and retail sales rose at a slower pace than expected in August, as continued job losses forced consumers to tighten their purse strings despite huge tax cuts. "If jobs fail, so does the economy," said Donald Straszheim of Straszheim Global Advisors. "The U.S. cannot have a solid, sustained economic recovery with continuing job losses." Total jobs are now down 2.1% since February 2001, the worst post-recession performance since Herbert Hoover was in office.

Black Blade: Now there's a comforting thought. As the consumer is two thirds of the economy it doesn't look too promising.

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 01:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108707)

THE NATION'S HOUSING: Appraisers pressed to overvalue, study finds

http://www.freep.com/realestate/renews/harney14_20030914.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- Do loan officers, mortgage brokers and realty agents pressure appraisers to raise their value estimates on properties in order to "hit the number" needed for the sale or refinance transaction to go through? Preliminary results from the first independent national study of the appraisal industry suggests the answer is a resounding -- and disquieting -- yes. The preliminary results are based on the first 250 completed interviews in 31 states, but Joe Casa, founder of October Research, says he doesn't expect the final, 50-state results to differ significantly from the preliminary. "The reality is that pressure on appraisers is a serious problem," said Casa. "Everybody knew that it existed, but nobody thought it was this bad." Forty-eight percent of the appraisers who reported pressure said the overvaluations demanded were 1 percent to 10 percent above the true market values of the properties. Forty-three percent said the overvaluation demands were 11 percent to 30 percent above market value.

What's the potential significance of overvaluations for consumers? Do inflated appraisals really matter that much? You could argue that a little fluff does little harm in an economy where houses are appreciating 5 percent to 7 percent every year. But what happens if prices go soft, as they do when regional employment markets stagnate and people lose jobs? Then consumers who bought houses with small down payments and inflated appraisals could be stuck in a very serious jam: They could be "upside-down," in real estate parlance -- owning houses worth less than the balance they owe their lender.

Black Blade: With the real estate bubble in danger of bursting this could get rather "interesting". I suspect it's going to get mighty ugly.

slingshot

(09/16/2003; 01:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108708)

****** New Bull Market In Gold******

YesEach and every day the indicators bear witness to a rising price of Gold. The barriers that inhibit the rise are those that The Powers That Be put in place to forestall the final outcome. They juggle the spheres of economics and at each turn another ball enters the orbit. Unemployment,National Debt, Consumer Confidence,Foreign Investment,Trade Inbalance,Geographical Instalbillity, Terrorism, Stock Market/Pro Forma and a Military Excursion that may cost Trillions to accomplish if ever. Medicare and Social Security combined with pension plans are a mess and the cost may be staggering to employers sending the economy in a spin.
The demographic is not too assuring as Baby Boomers come of age. What do they depend On? FIAT to see them through.
Foreign investment has 43% of the treasury bonds. China has a workforce to work for less than any AMERICAN would accept.
A fundamental certainty to undercut the economic engine of the U.S.A. Bring into account inflation and the rise of interest rates and deflation shall raise its ugly head. Real Estate will be devastated. When all is said and done, and the economic engine of the US falters, the other economies will fail and the rush to gold and other PMs will be astounding. The USA is the last of the GREAT CONSUMERS!
Slingshot----------------<>

Belgian

(09/16/2003; 01:58:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108709)

@ Robert

No VAT or any other taxes on 99,99 bullion is a decision that was taken by politicians, suggested by central bankers.

This is the purest, official, " Gold-Invitation " that one can imagine !!! Emphasis on invitation...not coercion.
An open gate,...Another choice possibility,...a gigantic hint,...

Those who wish to consolidate and transfer their real wealth...can do so at zero cost ! This is in sharp contrast with the dollar-policies that are associated with gold-confiscation and gold-containment. The euro-policies on gold are "FREEGOLD" policies !!! Add the latest principle of *mark to market* for the state's goldreserves (ECB) and your, mine, our private goldholdings ! The Euro-Freegold principle-concept has been extended and expanded with this mark to market principle.

Yes, euro-Freegold will come as soon as it is time for the old dollar-system to collapse.

The main problem for the general gold-public is to recognize that there is such a thing as the "euro" AND that dollar and euro carry a totally different concept. We are all (conveniently) blinded by the evidency of the super-dollar and the US super-power. Many, even still think that the German Deutshemark still exists. And the "mysterious" goldsales (?) of the EMU add to the general confusion.
All commentators/observers even lost their last grain of common sense when reporting/investigating gold-affairs.
The gigantic Gold-Fog must, conveniently, remain in place for very obvious reasons. For the general public and a wide range of politicians and alike, that is.

Read again very attentively what Mr. Javad Yarjani had to say on april 14,2002 in Oviedo, Spain : http://opec.org/Newsinfo/Speeches/sp2002AraqueSpainApr14.htm
A very short document to be printed and reviewed regulary.
These are the kind of people who have a "view" on what is to come and are in the know of the alternatives that are being *constructed* for when (not if) the worst (dollar-collapse) is, inevitably, to come.

�*FREEGOLD*� is not another gimmick but a building *solution* for the coagulating/clotting dollar-system. Ignore it at your peril/disadvantage.

Some time ago, a Belgian politician, publicly stated, that he simply couldn't understand why Gold wasn't taxed anymore since the taxing attempt (1% VAT) in the eighties was abruptly aborted ! An accompagning eminence grise was clearly embarresed and changed the subject immediately !
And this (no gold-taxing) when governments relentlessly keep searching for new and higher taxes on everything...EVERYTHING ! Significant, isn't it !?

The * � -euro-gold- � * link is there and is the main reason why so many ordinarry questions "must" remain unanswered.

The Swedish pro-euro activist, A. Lindh was murdered ...Y. Arafat should be removed (killed) with general public conscent,...The UK must stay out of EMU, now more than ever before,...France must remain demonized,...etc...etc...
What does this all mean, Sir Robert !? What is the core reason for all these fights and atrocities, now that our common enemy, communism, is no more ?

Cancun : Those parts of the globe on the way to development are "uniting" !!! Woww, what a substantial change ! Uniting against "what" and "why" ?

It all boils down to the basics of the "dollar-system". Exactly the one and only "fundamental" that remains under the thick carpet. This does NOT mean that nothing is being done about this dollar-system and its rival/competitor, the euro-system. We unite here (and only here) on "one" aspect in all this, GOLD... via many confusing detours !

The dollar-block didn't succeed in aborting the euro's birth (cfr. the E. Heath-Thatcher period)! Now the euro-child is growing up and must be terrorized by father-dollar.
Implicitely AND explicitely. That's what makes it all so confusing and foggy. Not in the least when it comes to the different links between dollar AND euro to GOLD, our Gold !

Regards, B.

misetich

(09/16/2003; 05:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108710)

U.S. Firms to Boost Hiring in 4th Quarter - Offset by more layoffs

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3449240Snip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - More U.S. companies plan to hire staff in the fourth quarter than in the previous three months, marking the first quarter-to-quarter increase this year, a survey released on Tuesday said.

But the widely watched quarterly survey by staffing company Manpower Inc. MAN.N also found the number of companies expecting to cut payroll is up as well, and fourth-quarter hiring this year will not keep pace with the prior year.

On the whole, most companies expect to leave staffing levels as they are, and even sectors that traditionally add workers during the holiday season, such as retail, are showing less inclination to take on payroll than a year ago.
******************
Misetich

Mucha adoo about nothing - the jobless recovery continues -
as it has for the last few years. The "phantom recovery" is wishful thinking. The stark reality is tax revenues federally, state level, and municipalities are dwindling however costs are rising.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/16/2003; 06:44:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108711)

The War and the Economy

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15918-2003Sep15.htmlSnip:

War spending has already become a driver of the economy,............ Defense expenditures surged in the April-to-June quarter of 2003 by 45.9 percent over the first quarter, to an annualized rate of $519 billion, ...........The economy expanded at a surprisingly brisk 3.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, of which 1.75 percentage points were attributed to defense spending.
.....................
Although employers shed 93,000 jobs in August, it may well have been worse but for the war. The military's mobilization currently has called into active duty 174,403 National Guardsmen and reservists, 20,000 of them in Iraq and Kuwait. Those troops are guaranteed their jobs when they return, but while they are on duty, someone else may be filling their post who otherwise would be jobless.
..................
"We almost always overheat," said Laurence H. Meyer, a former Federal Reserve Board governor ..........."It's one of the charms of the U.S. economy."
.....................
Others are not so sure. Meyer warned that the economy would soon adjust to the level of war spending and lower tax cuts, which will then lose their stimulative effect. "Looking out into next year, we're going to see a stunning decline in fiscal stimulus that the economy is going to have to deal with," he said.

If the economy hasn't kicked into gear on its own, a major hangover is inevitable, he said.
............................
Goldman Sachs warned clients on Friday, "The deficit issue is now on the radar screen of bond investors. They will be looking to see whether the policy of 'guns and butter' will persist or whether the Bush administration is now prepared to make some tough choices."
.............
"The government is going to be in a position where it's borrowing $400 billion and $500 billion a year," McKelvey said. "It's first in line for borrowing. The notion that that guy can get first in line without shoving out the guy in the back of the line just doesn't pass the smell test. You don't have to be an economist to understand that."
..................
**************
Misetich

Military spending is propelling the elusive economic recovery - that in part explains the "non-job creation" -

Government spending is spiralling out of control - homeland security, has/is/will be a huge burden to carry out...

Most are waiting for the "real economy" to kick in - (they've been waiting several years now) and make everything rosy again. The band will resume playing, and dancing will resume on the deck of the World Financial Titanic....

Trillions of derivatives, trillions of debt, unfunded pension plans, soaring deficits, asset deflation, soaring inflation will disappate, interest rates will remain benign, housing prices will keep on rising, oil prices will tumble down, ....

Gosh, gee, sales of rosy colored glasses must be booming.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Humble Pie

(09/16/2003; 06:51:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108712)

Post # 108709

I can't get that speech you refered to in the post i.e.Araque Spain Arr14 2002 .Can you give another source. thanks

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(09/16/2003; 07:14:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108713)

@Humble Pie - Yarjani

http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htmTruely incredible speech. So open, so clear.

LeSin

(09/16/2003; 07:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108714)

Mr. Javad Yarjani on - Euro - Oil - US$

http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htmBelgian - thank you for mentioning and reminding us about this speech and others similar.
As you well understand that the wheels of change continue turning - some events/slopes make that wheel turn quickly and roads when once at the summit must head downward - away we go!

Snips from the speech:

"Moreover, since oil is such an important commodity in global trade, in terms of value, if the pricing of oil were to shift to the euro, it could provide a boost to the global acceptability of the single currency. There are also very strong trade links between OPEC Member Countries (MCs) and the Euro-zone, with more than 45 per cent of total merchandise imports of OPEC MCs coming from the countries of the Euro-zone, while OPEC MCs are main suppliers of oil and crude oil products to Europe"

"So what is the OPEC position on this critical questions? Can the Organization consider switching its crude oil pricing from dollars to euros? Or will a basket of currencies be used?"

"In the long-term, perhaps one question that comes to mind is could a dual system operate simultaneously? Could one pricing system apply to the Western Hemisphere in dollars and for the rest of the world in euros? This will remain the test for the euro, should the currency gain ground in the market of oil transactions."

"An increased level of international trade, if undertaken in euros, will help determine the value of the currency. Essentially, increased trade in euros, associated with a rise in the value of the currency, would also encourage people to view it as a safe bet in terms of savings, or as a store of value. For the euro to emerge as a serious competitor to the US dollar, it would need to replace or parallel the dollar as the currency of choice for hard currency reserves. "
End snips:
Cheers "S"

Belgian

(09/16/2003; 07:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108715)

@ Humble Pie

Without attaching too much importance to it,...I suspected that the given link would not work anymore. That's why I do print these important things, immediately on paper !
Maybe a smart internaut might find the document somewhere else. (OPEC archives )
It was about the choice of currency for the denomination of the oil bill and the International role of the euro.

Mr. Javad Yarjani, Head Petroleum Market Analysis Dept. wished the euro every succes at the end of his speech...but so wished A. Lindh, also...

Tony (Blair) let us know that he is not excluding an euro-referendum, after what happened in Sweden. This chap knows how to play the political violins for his personal gain. Bravo Tony (sic)!

Rumor goes that the Chinese are ready to upvalue their currency with 5% against the US$, without de-coupling. This to stimulate their "internal" economy and not as an accomodatif approach to the $.
I don't see any fundamental change in the global economic situation and the position of the dollar when agreeing on some minor waves (5 %) in the sea of floating currencies, $-yuan-yen-euro. It will change nothing, mid-long-term. Don't even see short-term advantages for the dollar's devaluation
in exchange rate. If the result is a minor price-inflation in the US...so what ? Any other ideas on this, anyone ? TIA.

Belgian

(09/16/2003; 08:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108716)

WAC and sin

Thanks for helping ! Yep, I'm lazy .
What is so important on this document is its profound view into a very possible future by a representative of the most political global resource, (ME-OPEC) crude oil !
It is very strange (or not) that there are (not in my knowledge) any other follow-up (public) documents on the same subject. The great silent, today, is Saudi Arabia (BIS-member).

Note that the recent LBMA-activity was up 5% and that the WGC explicitely states, each time the statistics are released, that these figures are only a """ fraction """ of the total trade !!! This to relativate all/many comments/speculations made on these "visible" short/long positions.
How can we (others) possibly come to some reliable conclusions on the paper-gold-trade if only a fraction of it is visible ? Do we know the "real" goldmarket ???

The same goes for the currency market/markets : What are the real reasons why currencies move this or that way ?
Economical or political (smile Robert). Remember that the euro versus the dollar moved from 85 to 120 : that's a 50% for the euro run in no time !!! POG went from 253$ to 375$...also 50%...! Where is the distinction between a weak dollar and/or a strong euro !? What is exactly meant by weak or strong ?

The Javad Yarjani speech gives us some "intentional" (A/FOA) clues !

a nation of one

(09/16/2003; 09:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108717)

some off the wall observations on the speech about the Euro and oil

It is not a coincidence that the current battle between the dollar and the euro pit the US and Europe against one another. If you can effectively divide your enemy, you may conquer him. Europe is the source of a primary component of the US population. These two should be natural, though perhaps to a degree uncomfortable, allies in the present circumstance. But by having them fight each other, the strength of both will be made to erode over time, and the central banks --which are not formally instituted by the governments of the various nations, or by their native peoples-- stand to win the long war of manipulative financial exploitation that is being waged over the populations involved. The owners of the central banks will profit. The citizens of these nations will pay. Gold is a tool in this sort of craftsmanship. While it gives the wise something to hold onto if the rest of the world goes down the drain pipe, it nonetheless is subject to the workings of the game. In our favor we have other people like ourselves, who accumulate gold to possess it, and that may ultimately drive its price upward. Against us is the age-old pressure of these powerful private interests, whose influence in our government is stronger than our own, and who forever work diligently to line their pockets with the wealth created by the people of our land. What will come of all this, the same old thing? I doubt it. People's understanding is increasing. The light that brings day also reveals what in the night was hidden. Our best course is the improvement of our own knowledge, which, as our good luck would have it, is happening right here on this forum all the time. The worst problem, as I see it, is that so many people accept on faith that the role of the central banks is benign. In my reading of the speech about the Euro and Oil, it seems to me what is being talked about is not whether there ought to be a hanging, but how to make the noose. And the general public, instead of gathering before the gallows to watch, are being herded into standing on the trap door.

cockerel1

(09/16/2003; 09:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108718)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

At this time, the bull market in gold is very orderly, albeit still being manipulated. Smart money? realizes that an upward-spiralling, out-of-control, POG will hurt the "status quo" and that is just unacceptable. Everything is being done, at this time, to "reach safety" before the "Perfect Storm" gets out of control. Casualties will be many, but like the story goes, "He who builds his house upon a safe foundation, will prosper."

As more riskier endeavours are abandoned, as more sacrificial lambs are led to the slaughter, as more "easy money" is siphoned from the system, only then will the self-proclaimed-by-divine-right "chosen few" join the smart-set within the safe haven of gold and silver, and the leash will finally be off the POG and POS.

Basilides

(09/16/2003; 09:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108719)

Sornette's prediction?

I am curious if any goldbugs out there have been following Sornette's prediction [www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction] that the S&P500 has been signalling a major downturn this fall that will continue deep into next year? He claims the theory would have predicted all the major and minor downturns since records have been kept, and he has been predicting the next one for over a year.

a nation of one

(09/16/2003; 10:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108720)

To basilides

The theory that Didier Sornette has posted on his web site is interesting and makes a lot of sense, I think. It must be true that certain aspects of human behavior tend to prevail among the actions of the human population as a whole and that this manifests in human activities such as markets. That realization is not new, however, but has been arrived at by observers of human behavior for quite some time. The details are perceived variously, but the substance is there. The way he states his view, I believe, however, is an improvement over what I have seen previously, with maybe one exception. What does seem new, and important, is the way he has combined this understanding scientifically to devise a codified method of representing it graphically, as a way to generate quantitative predictions, whose statistical accuracy, as far as I can tell, so far appear to be real.

Agingfast

(09/16/2003; 10:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108721)

Re: Sornette's Prediction

Back-testing of systems is fraught with peril.

a nation of one

(09/16/2003; 10:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108722)

Agingfast

Yes, but there may be a difference between back-testing, and employing known variables to reach tentative conclusions about future events.

a nation of one

(09/16/2003; 10:36:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108723)

Agingfast

There are a couple of other things too of course. Human beings are not rocks. If you tell them the market is going to crash, they could react in ways which cause it not to. Also there are behaviors such as government market 'management' whose patterns are determined in supposedly unchartable ways. But this is still human behavior and subject to the same principles as all the other human behavior. Due to this fact, a theory like Sornette's may therefore nonetheless apply.

Federal_Reserves

(09/16/2003; 10:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108724)

SM collapse coming

If we continue to follow the Japanese Model of the 1990's, right after options expire this month, we should start to see a declining market with a small drop in Sept, a bigger one in Oct, and then a total collapse in Nov. In Nov, the Oct/02 bottom feed buyers will be motivated to sell to capture lower capital gains.

The March/03 lows should hold however.

Humble Pie

(09/16/2003; 10:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108725)

(No Subject)

Thanks to all for the reference to OPEC speech

Paper Avalanche

(09/16/2003; 11:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108726)

POG Chart for Today - Text Book Cabal

How many times have you seen a graph like today's POG chart action?

I wonder if these guys ever get bored at work.

PA

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/16/2003; 11:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108727)

Do the math -- bullion priced right!! Only ONE PERCENT over our cost.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html

TownCrier

(09/16/2003; 12:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108728)

FOMC Statement on Monetary Policy -- Sept 16th, 2003

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20030916/default.htmThe Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming, although the labor market has been weakening. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr.

Usul

(09/16/2003; 13:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108729)

@Basilides

I found the Sornette function fitting very interesting, however, I have followed various market predictions since 1997 where a crash/breakdown/collapse event was predicted. The chart was broken every time, and I believe every effort is made by the powers that be to discredit such predictions. With unlimited leverage at their disposal (futures, derivatives, slush funds, propaganda), they can easily shift the markets enough to change the prediction of a technical analysis model. Take a look at the big H and S on the Wiltshire, and see the unnatural take-off on the right-hand side. We live in interesting times. Things are not as before.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/16/2003; 13:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108730)

Page Update!

Operative

(09/16/2003; 15:58:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108731)

WOW, Government Sees No Inflation. (Gov = 3 Blind Mice)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A19953-2003Sep16?language=printerSnip:

"Underlying U.S. Inflation Slows to 37-Year Low
Reuters
Tuesday, September 16, 2003; 4:10 PM
By Eric Burroughs
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. consumer prices rose at the slowest annual rate in 37 years in August, the government said on Tuesday in a report that highlighted the Federal Reserve's worries about "undesirably low" inflation.

The main Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in August, below economists' forecasts of a 0.4 percent gain despite a surge in energy costs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
The core CPI, which strips out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1 percent on the month. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI, which is viewed as a better gauge of inflation trends, slowed to a 1.3 percent rate in August from 1.5 percent in July. "

Comment: Reserving the right to comment at this time.
( Black Blade will rip this article to shreds in a much better written form than I could ever do. LOL )

TownCrier

(09/16/2003; 16:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108732)

Delay your gold purchase at your own peril -- higher price of acquisition

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030916/group_japan_1.htmlAs the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meet this weekend in Dubai in advance of the WB/IMF (semi-) annual meetings, currencies are this time unavoidably on the public agenda.

Do you think this forebodes a general strengthening of your national money? Think again. Then act. After all, only YOU can take the steps to build and preserve your financial base.

R.

----(following excerpts from url listed above)----

TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Japan will be happy to see its Group of Seven partners echoing its call for China to adopt a flexible currency regime at a meeting this week but will refuse to budge on its own policy of beating down the buoyant yen.

High on the agenda will be the yuan's de facto peg to the dollar, which critics say gives China an unfair trade advantage by keeping its currency undervalued, but similar charges could be levelled at Japan, which has been intervening in the market in record amounts this year to rein in the yen.

"The communique is unlikely to point out Japan's policy specifically, but markets expect that the general tone at the meeting will be some kind of pressure on Japan's intervention policy," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo.

Tokyo spent around nine trillion yen ($77 billion) in intervention in the first eight months of the year and was thought to be in the market this month to prevent the dollar tumbling towards 115 yen, seen as a key line of defence.

mikal

(09/16/2003; 16:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108733)

Nasdaq "trends", equities and the lazy, crazy days of summer

I am loathe to use the word "trend" in the officially, command economy, leverage of the galloping Grassoed and lassoed share marketplace of my home state- NY. 1,802,345,000: This is today's share volume traded on the Nasdaq composite index.
Throughout the supposedly slower summer season, volumes have been very high on all the major equity indices. Occurring virtually every day, like the climax years of the late 90's before the large sell off. During the large bear market before the Great Depression, the bear market rallies were also steep and sustained.
As Black Blade has noted, the indices today benefitted from official news on CPI and interest rate policy. These influences are becoming less effective but this week many players will await other economic announcements, including the results of the upcoming IMF meeting in Dubai, UAE, thus helping to support the market. And the end of the week is triple-witching options expiration, a good reason to dress-up stock portfolios.

Melting Pot

(09/16/2003; 17:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108734)

No inflation

Take a good look at the trend lines of dollar, oil, & CRB. They have all violated the trend to downside indicating disinflation. The CRB has declined to 237 and change. Is Greenspan losing the war against deflation? OR is another recession just around the corner? OR do govt bonds require a whiff of deflation to create demand for the new issues?

See for yourself........

Mr Gresham

(09/16/2003; 17:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108735)

Meacher on PNAC and Sept. 11

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/090803_meecher.htmlNot very subtle, are these new world dominators, are they? And I thought a conspiracy was supposed to be more secret than this. "Hiding in plain sight."

Only explanation: No one cares enough to object, as they expected. We all drive cars.

Hey -- most Germans didn't do anything very evil, either, at least personally. And they probably wondered why the bombs rained down on them -- very personally -- in their cities and factories and railways.

heavy mettle

(09/16/2003; 17:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108736)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes (and) No******

May we all rise in health, wealth and happiness in contemplation of a future fraught with somber uncertainty. Join in.

"America Snoring"

I hear America snoring
. . .
Did ya see it on TV
Or in your own backyard
. . .
And they called the National Guard
The tanks came rolling down
Sunset Blvd.
And I hear America snoring
. . .
They want ta�legislate the moon
They want ta�legislate the womb
They wanna legislate
The things they hate
They want to legislate this tune
. . .
Plug my ears but I hear
America snoring
See the shoemaker and his shoes
Silver needle, thread and glue
He's closing up the shop
Move it all to Timbuktu
Where the labor force is cheap
And the rivers there run deep
I hear America snoring

(Grant Lee Buffalo)

It has been asked ladies and gentleman, knights and fair maidens, is this bull wearing golden horns or is this bear, by nature, still doing its business in the woods. In return I ask, "a gold bull market in relation to . . . what?" The dollar, euro, oil, goods and services?

From a relative perspective, certainly and by all means this young bull will rage against what is today considered value found in the ether zones and in the minds of the common man. The wake up call is prowling with a heavy hand, and the alarm bells have started ringing as evidenced from these fine pages where song and wisdom are found. Sooner rather than later we will know where value really resides; not where it is said to live. A newer, more golden and truthful day is dawning.

Yes, indeed, this new bull market will launch more from TRUTH rather than one commodity or form of money. One cannot legislate and fool mother nature, no more than a lunatic can fool the mirror of reality for any length of time no matter how intelligent and self-righteous the foolish pretend to be. The sooner everyone, forced by economic reality, comes around to this simple fact, this bull market in TRUTH will get further underway while gaining more momentum and steam.

As a rising tide lifts all boats, TRUTH's wealth held in the highest form possible, gold money, is for contemplation of a time not too far off.

Again, let's all rise to sing �Money� and then afterwards �Time� by the venerable Pink Floyd.

May gold bless you all with the TRUTH of ages.

heavy mettle

(09/16/2003; 17:41:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108737)

$$$378.6$$$

GOLD DISCUSSION FORUM's Fifth Anniversary (Happy Fifth)
Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource?

Certainly man cannot prosper without money, nor run a business without oil or participate in a �new economy� without indebtedness. How would anyone tie these related but dissimilar ideas together into a whole without visiting the varied trails that wellspring from these fine pages? Very much an impossible mission which most unfortunately disavow.

Great minds think on a similar plane, the rest watch TV.

Runner

(09/16/2003; 17:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108738)

$$$$388.5$$$$

I have been a luker for the past 3 years and is only my third post. The Mighty Oaken Table, IMHO, has some of the most knowlegable and informed people that participate on a regular basis on the web. I have learned a lot from this Mighty Oaken Table over the past 3 years. I graduated with a business degree over several years ago. Since finding this site I have found that I have had to rethink many of the thing I was taught. Thanks!!

Smeagol

(09/16/2003; 18:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108739)

We guesses It will be $$$$$ 378.80 $$$$$, we does

asdfghj7 d
.....
1 @#234 56/;;xxxx $SmeaS goll !d S
xh , >.
......
So thIs is how masTERs window works . ?
This isnnt so hard , after all. We likes it, we do .We lurk and learn while Master is away. Hmm.. . In - ter- net?... O my!

...... what's this here, eh? a Riddle? Ssss... O yes, we can guess the price of It, yes, we can. As good as anyone, even tricksy hobbits!! And nothing to lose this time!

$$$$$ 377.70...$$$$$

And maybe-

-Ach!!!! Ssss... That, that... Wizard is here, and Aragorn too!!

...but this is not so bad, these days they are on our side (or we are on their side, eh?). Yes, on the side of Gold!!! They will not take It from us, and we are better off for having Trailed them to this place. Now let us sneak a look around...

...carefully, now... Ah! Here we are, at that great Table we heard about. Big People come here every day with fresh news. This is the source of the Archives (what's an Archive, eh, Precious? Is it crunchable? Is it tasty?)(No, Archives are not for eating, they are to look into from time to time, find out who is right and who is wrong, as things change. Learn much here, but always be careful and sift news as carefully as we sift river sand for It). Yes, we musst listen very carefully, keep eyes bright, mind tight and sstudy, sstudy, always to learn more, to mine for truth... to know when-

-eh? what's this door behind the Table? 'Hall of Fame'? O yes Precious, look, there are great writings here, lots to read and think long about. Here are answers to many questions. Everyone should read them, we will tell our friends to come and read them too. Ssss... so much to read before Master returns... > 'save file as-'?<

Smeagol watches many things now, thanks very much to Another and FOA and MK and many others. And he is always eager to learn. Will even work for It, he will. Now we come to the last chance, when all Peoples musst save It, and NEVER NEVER give It up, and send Big Paper and Law people back to eat nassty tricksy paper once and for all!

Sss... musst leave the magic window now, Master returns!

S.

........

I see Gollum figured out how to work the computer. He always surprises me. I hope he doesn't give you kind people too much trouble!

F. Baggins

a nation of one

(09/16/2003; 18:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108740)

...

Welcome aboard, Smeagol. But stay away from the ring case.

Smeagol

(09/16/2003; 18:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108741)

We guesses It will be $$$$$ 378.80 $$$$$, we does

AAgh! No, no, not that one, the HIGHer one, the one in bold type like above, THAT's the one we guesses yes, Precious.

S.

Smeagol

(09/16/2003; 18:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108742)

We thanks you, a nation of one

...but nowadays we don't like Rings at all, after what they did to us, you'll see. These Precious is round, heavy and Gold, but it is not a ring, no, no, and it is good!!!

S.

VanRip

(09/16/2003; 18:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108743)

********The New Bull Market in Gold? No.*******

IMO, gold is not in a bullmarket. And it has not been in a bear market.

The Bear?

IMO, if legitimate supply had overwhelmed legitimate demand and the price had fallen over all this time, then to me gold would have been in a bear market. But from what I've read, gold has been manipulated down, forced down, beaten down, stepped on and kept down. This to me is not a bear but a stranglehold, a death grip, a gun to its head market. To me a manipulated market down should not be called a bear anymore than a manipulated market up should be called a bull. They both should be called reasons for jail time.

The Coming Bull

IMO, gold forces appear to be loosening this stranglehold and gold is now adjusting upward to its rightful price, struggling to find it real value, it's true balance based on supply and demand. When the manipulation ends, and when gold reaches that balance, somewhere around the $600.'s according to some, including Murphy and I think Veneroso, then we have to wait to see at that time whether legitimate supply or demand will take over the driver's seat. At that time a bull or bear will begin. My guess, big bull. In the meantime it's all just an adjustment, getting back to where we should have been in the first place.

Did I say IMO?

Paper Avalanche

(09/16/2003; 18:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108744)

Inflation hits 37 year low - my a$$

The bigger the lie, the more people who believe it. For starters, let us please recognize that inflation is NOT the increase in the prices of things, but rather, is the increase in the supply of money. Things increase in price because of inflation, their increase in price is not inflation itself. Joe Sixpack does not discern between the two. That is how the poobahs like it. Just for fun I would be interested if anyone can cite where any of the following has increased only at 1.5% over the last twelve months:

Education
Healthcare
Food
Cable TV
Gasoline
Electricity
General services

Who needs any of the above anyway? That lower computer price offsets the above increases through the magic of hedonic defaltors.

I am not trying to be confrontational with anoyone on this board. Sometimes I get so wound up after reading such blatant lies that I need to have an outlet to vent my contempt.

Thanks for putting up with me.

PAPER AVALANCHE!

(09/16/2003; 19:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108745)

Smeagol, Runner, Heavy Mettle

I opened the page to see your posts happily. This is why we have these contests -- for important contributions like the ones you just made. So thank you.......

Few know that we have issued literally thousands of posting codes. I often wonder what happens between the time that posting code is requested and the moment that first post is made. Too often, the post is scrapped and the potential contributor goes back to lurking. Too few take the big step toward actually making themselves heard. We all learn a great deal from this discussion, and before you dismiss the importance of your own contribution, please keep in mind that at one point some of our most honored posters wondered in their mind if their thinking would be accepted or found valuable by the group as a whole. They did not realize that its not whether or not the posts are accepted; it gets down to whether or not the contribution is actually made. Most here, are not only supportive, they are eager to hear new ideas and new approaches. All posts, within the rules of course, are valued! It has always been that way here.

I have talked with people of all ages and from all walks of life about the forum over the years -- some brilliant people. Always, the tone is that they are awed by what is happening here, but too often I also hear the cop-out: "I don't post because I don't really think I have much to contribute." The fact of the matter is that no one knows the impact of a post until it hits the board. And to take it a step further, you never know when that one combination of sentences, experience and ideas is going to maximize your contribution to the body of knowledge we all hold dear. No post is unimportant. Every post is read -- by someone!! We learn from each other, and that explains the success of this forum and why so many, myself included, return here day after day and have been doing so for so many years. In the same way, once you begin posting you might find it addicting......

Recently, one gold buyer told me that he has learned a great deal here about the world economy, so much so, that at times he springs things on his wife which she finds to be brilliant insights. He said that the forum had improved his marriage. I simply said "Well, if we can help at that level, then we've really accomplished something...." He laughed. I laughed. It made my day.

I want to add too that until you make the big move, and actually "post", we cannot say that we have made a contribution to this cyber-university of the mind, but once you do, you have done something very important -- made your ideas -- your Thoughts known! You have made a substantial contribution to the life of this forum. And life is a word chosen deliberately, as each post -- small, large or in-between -- contributes to its sustenance. If you wish it -- this Table -- to prosper, the most important element to achieving that is YOUR PARTICIPATION!!

So Thank you (now) Sirs Smeagol, Runner and Heavy Mettle,

Let me ask one thing (and I extend this invitation to all first time posters): Now that you've broken the ice, please don't retreat into the murky halls of lurkerdom. Continue. Who knows.....you might contribute to the shaping of (or comfort to) a fellow seeker of knowledge and wisdom..........

May the contest warm to a glow..........To all those thinking about posting a contest entry.......See the posts of these new members of an elite club -- this Table Round.........We look forward to your contribution as well........MK

To all our long-time posters, if you agree with this sentiment......please post it.......All those lurkers out there might take it as an invitation to help this forum grow.....

My thoughts on this our Fifth Anniversary......

Sundeck

(09/16/2003; 19:26:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108746)

PA #108744 - Inflation? What inflation?

Hear, hear Sir PA...but you forgot HOUSES!! Noone needs to live in them anymore...they just build paper castles. (Waiting for the Big Bad Wolf...or is it the Housing Bear?)

Note that the "Value" of houses has probably not changed one little bit in the last few years BUT their "Price" certainly has.

;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/16/2003; 19:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108747)

WELCOMING Sirs Smeagol, Runner, & Heavy Mettle

MK (09/16/03; 19:18:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 108745)
===
Thanks, SIR MK for welcoming "THREE FORMER LURKERS" as the latest new posters and CONTEST ENTRANTS ! I too, WELCOME the THREE, especially our "two" friends in one, Sir Smeagol ! IN fact, I was watching the story of Sir Smeagol in the "Two Towers", again last night, and can't wait until Christmas time this year, to see the final chapter.
The writing of your entry was "Very well done !", Sir Smeagol. (In true character!)

Now that you three know how easy it is -- DON'T be a STRANGER to the TABLEROUND !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/16/2003; 20:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108748)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Smeagol

(09/16/2003; 21:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108749)

Glad, and not so glad

Is MK or Gandalf the graciousest of hosts to put up with the likes of us, eh? Heh, heh.
Yes, we find friends here. And learn with, what do you call it, a little 'fun' too, eh?

The memory of the Story still hurts us Gandalf, and we won't speak it here. It will be revealed soon enough (shiver) - we don't need to see it!! Ssss... no happy Christmas tales for Smeagol. We barely made it out of the Black Land alive, but we weren't about to ride Eagles into the terrible sky, not for anything, not even for It!! No, Precious, no!

Character ??

No, other things worry Smeagol now. Sitting at this great Table talking about It warms our heart, but out in the World it is cold and dangerous. Will big people fulfill Free-gold Promise this time? Or meet the new boss, same as the old boss? Even big Euro countries now try like slippery fish to change their financial Promises. And it seems to poor Smeagol the big US country, in a pinch, will just take It like before, and oil too, rather than let It shine! See, they built in Ku-wait, they build in Iraq (hmm... where is Iraq Gold now?), and their Eye now turns to... Iran? "He who has It AND oil makes the rules", eh? Ssss... of course we might be wrong... what think all of you, eh?

S.
.......

You were right about sparing Gollum, Gandalf. And now you have to live with him too! (laughter)

F. Baggins

R Powell

(09/16/2003; 21:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108750)

Some silver thoughts

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan/091603.htm It ain't heavy, it's my silver!

Black Blade

(09/16/2003; 21:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108751)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmForeign Holdings of Treasuries at a Record

Snippit:

Parts of the economy that benefit from excess Fed created liquidity such as housing and the stock market are expected to do well. The Fed will do all it can to keep the mortgage, housing, consumption, stock and bond market bubbles alive through plenty of cheap money. Can they keep the bubble alive until next year's elections are over? Here again that depends on what foreigners do with our greenbacks. The fate of the dollar, the bond market, interest rates and ultimately the U.S. economy now rests in the hands of foreign investors. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries now exceed 46%. The U.S. is mortgaging its future and the primary mortgage holder has become Asian central banks.

According to recent Fed reports, foreign investors poured $101 billion into U.S. Treasury bonds during the second quarter. Without that influx of money, interest rates would be much higher and the dollar much lower then where they ended up at the close of the quarter. China, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong now own $696 billion in U.S. Treasuries as of the end of June. The Fed may determine short-term rate in the U.S., but the fate of the bond market rests lies entirely on the whims of these four foreign states. Without their direct support of the dollar and our bond market, interest rates would be a lot higher then where they now stand. It is a very precarious state to be in as a superpower.

And of course this nice tidbit:

Nothing is out of the realm as the Fed will get more desperate in the months ahead when present policy measures run out of steam. The Fed is hell-bent on reflation, which means that the prices of goods and services you need are going to go higher. It also means you're going to be seeing higher gold and silver prices over the next year. We will know over the next year whether present monetary polices will lead towards a depressionary crash or hyperinflation. Maybe we will see both. We truly are living in historic times. Not since the days of John Law in 17th century France have we ever seen this degree of monetary madness.

Black Blade: Guess what the United States biggest export is? Really, take a guess! Got it yet? It's the US Dollar! That's right - the biggest US export is the dollar. And the Federal Reserve is creating a lot more of them for export too. We might not make much of anything in the US anymore but we do make lots of dollars and there are a lot of foreigners buying them and taking them in trade for goods made abroad.

Since it's been brought up tonight I will expound slightly on it. The US equities markets have been on a roll again as "irrational exuberance" has returned. The problem of course is that corporate insiders are bailing out at a faster and faster pace! The Lemmings are blindly stumbling along leaning on every word of the financial media carnival barkers singing the tune Wall Street and Washington DC (aka Fantasyland) is feeding them. But just think a little further on this. Market volume has steadily fallen as would be expected in the summer months. However, here's the punch line - sell offs are coming on higher volume than the following bounces and the rallies are coming on lighter volume (mostly from market index futures buying from funds and investment houses). That's a clear signal of selling into strength while buying time. That suggests a strong - very strong downward bias for the market in the next couple of months. Look out below!

The carnival barkers also continue to tell us that 65% of companies have beat estimates in the second quarter! Yessirreee - but what they don't tell you is that at the beginning of the year while touting the "second half recovery" (now four years running without success), is that year-over-year estimates were calling for 10.9% growth. OOPS! Guess what? Those estimates wound down more and more until it was 5% at the beginning of the second quarter's reporting season (aka confession season). Yep, you can always beat estimates if you keep lowering the bar. Meanwhile the Lemmings are swallowing it hook, line, and sinker, and the insiders are jumping ship left and right.

OK, now inflation! Yes - inflation is a measly 1.4% - that is when you strip away the "unimportant stuff" like energy, food, health care, housing, etc. Then the scamsters at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the US government's paid liars and con men) "smooth" economic data with various filters like hedonic deflators, seasonality, imputed income, etc. In short, if you lie about inflation you can give a good picture from the "Fantasyland" point of view and cheat elderly retirees out of their COLA increases. Well at least they might feel better as they buy a can of cat food for dinner. It also helps soften the blow of the soaring all time record budget deficits. I guess that they can't do much else as the country is bankrupt and Asian nations own a large chunk of the mortgage. No wonder the Japanese and Chinese monetary authorities thoroughly humiliated US Treasury Secretary John Snow last week as he groveled before them on his hands and knees.

There is really only one outcome left and that's a massive flood of dollars to be created and the resulting inflationary deluge will get very ugly in the coming New Great Depression. Get that portfolio insurance (gold, platinum, and silver) in order while you can at bargain basement prices. Cause it ain't gonna be pretty.

melda laure

(09/16/2003; 22:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108752)

CEF, strange attractors

Did anybody notice the bizzzzaaaare action in CEF yesterday near the close? Fortunately, real metals dont bounce around by themselves like this unless pushed. Did somebody slip a few mexican jumping beans in the vault?

melda laure

(09/16/2003; 23:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108753)

greetings smeagol

Yess. Many lurkers here, hobbittses and wizards too, and elves with bright eyes.

Comatose made some comments about fairy tales yesterday; I think he meant the bureau of lies of sauron (um, er statistics whatever).

Mr Gresham

(09/16/2003; 23:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108754)

MK's Welcome #108745 below

I echo our host's well-aimed words at those who have thoughts (and the posting codes to share them) and retreat at the moment their hand is about to hit the "Submit Message" button.

You never know what chain of thoughts you will send reverberating through the mind of an individual, and the halls of the Forum. We can judge for ourselves if it is useful, and overlook it if not. It is more of an additive process, and I find that little can detract from that process, for me.

"The highway is for gamblers, better use your sense. Take what you have gotten from coincidence." -- Dylan

Much of what we do here is in a light-hearted mood, and it sets the stage for the drama that may and must pass through at other times.

Your contribution is something that makes us aware of a living person on the other end of these modem lines, and makes this world of gold-hearts a little less lonely.

At times, we've really had the wires singing, and you never know who "has the orb" -- whose turn it is to speak out -- until each listens in his own heart for that call.

slingshot

(09/16/2003; 23:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108755)

Smeagol, Runner and Heavy Mettle

Welcome Sir Knights to the USAGOLD Castle. The trumpets sound as you pass through the gate and are greeted by fellow Goldbugs waiting to hear the stories of your travels. Your thoughts are equal to any others and who knows, that one you consider insignificant, can be the piece that fits the puzzle we try so hard to construct. There are many ways to contribute. What you see and have heard about in your daily life. There are those who are smarter than you, and some that are not as smart. Here its does not matter. Everyone helps everyone. If it was not for the Gracious Knights at this table, I may have been long gone. I assure you, you may be called to support your views.
I encourage you to post, for you will find a helpful hand always extended.
Slingshot----------------------<>

Aragorn III

(09/16/2003; 23:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108756)

MK: "To all our long-time posters, if you agree with this sentiment......please post it"

Yes, truly.

In the spirit of the evening, this Sm�agol, however, is surely an open can of worms.

As discussed among the Council, long he was hunted, through many deadly perils, after Gandalf despaired of ever finding him.

'There is little need to tell of them. If a man must needs walk in sight of the Black Gate, or tread the deadly flowers of Morgul Vale, then perils he will have. I, too, despaired at last, and I began my homward journey. And then, by fortune, I came suddenly on what I sought: the marks of soft feet beside a muddy pool. But now the trail was fresh and swift, and it led not to Mordor but away. Along the skirts of the Dead Marshes I followed it, and then I had him. Lurking by a stagnant mere, peering into the water as the dark eve fell, I caught him, Gollum. He was covered with green slime. He will never love me, I fear; for he bit me, and I was not gentle. Nothing more did I ever get from his mouth than the marks of his teeth. I deemed it the worst part of all my journey, the road back, watching him day and night, making him walk before me with a halter on his neck, gagged, until he was tamed by lack of drink and food, driving him ever towards Mirkwood. I brought him there at last and gave him to the Elves, for we had agreed that this should be done; and I was glad to be rid of his company, for he stank. For my part I hope never to look upon him again...'

'Alas! alas' cried Legolas, and in his fair elvish face there was great distress. 'The tidings that I was sent to bring must now be told. They are not good, but only here have I learned how evil they may seem to this company. Sm�agol, who is now called Gollum, has escaped. We guarded this creature day and night, much though we wearied of the task. But Gandalf bade us hope still for his cure, and we had not the heart to keep him ever in dungeons under the earth, where he would fall back into his old black thoughts.

'In the days of fair weather we led Gollum through the woods; and there was a high tree standing alone far from the others which he liked to climb. Often we let him mount up to the highest branches, until he felt the free wind; but we set a guard at the tree's foot. One day he refused to come down, and the guards had no mind to climb after him: he had learned the trick of clinging to boughs with his feet as well as with his hands; so they sat by the tree far into the night.

'It was that very night of summer, yet moonless and starless, that Orcs came on us at unawares. We drove them off after some time; they were many and fierce, but they came from over the mountains, and were unused to the woods. When the battle was over, we found that Gollum was gone, and his guards were slain or taken. It then seemed plain to us that the attack had been made for his rescue, and that he knew of it beforehand. How that was contrived we cannot guess; but Gollum is cunning, and the spies of the Enemy are many. We have failed to recapture him...'

And lo!

It seems that the lure of gold has driven him unbidden and unexpected right back into our strategies! Have a care for your pockets (and your fingers) gentlemen! Now that he is among us he must do what he will. But he may play a part yet that neither he nor Sauron have forseen. Therefore, we must heed his actions and his words, yes, even the duplicitous words of this most wearisome Sm�agol!

got gold?

Belgian

(09/17/2003; 00:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108757)

@VanRip #msg108743

Indeed Sir,...Gold is NOT (yet) in a Bull-Market but slowly adjusting to what has been done to/with it !!!
I do agree fully with this accurate observation/conclusion of yours.

It is exactly for this reason that we will, highly probably, not see the POG sub 300$ anymore...never ! (say never...)

This means that the dollar-system (dollar as reserve) is in its unwinding process (becoming unworkable).

To all lurkers and hesitant first time posters...: Please, PLEASE, do join this forum . A question,...a simple observation or remark/critique never falls in deaf ears. On the contrary, it provokes more thoughts and insights to those (me for instance) who wish to study about our common (financial-monetary) future. One single sentence can make a big difference in how regular posters keep seeing things !
Always remember that there's nothing wrong with being wrong. We all keep "adjusting" just as POG is doing, at present. Thanks in advance for taking "the" helping step.

Latest news from Bolton on Syria : Here we go again on the dollar-integration/control efforts of the Middle East (domino).
The great, global dollar-quest. My personal translation of the *systemic* approach (by the dollar) to the whole region.
The rest of the world can only watch and acknoledge the faits accomplis and always react one step too late.

In this context,...against this background, it is easier to understand why and how it is possible to have so much *over-valuations* in stocks, bonds and dollar-currency ! The super-power, US, cares about everything, for everybody, now. Beware of such all embrasing enterprises !

And as VanRip justly states that Gold (POG) is not (yet) in a bull market because it only adjusted by 50% from its obscene low of 253$...the financial brotherhood doesn't say that the euro is in a bull market because it adjusted to the dollar with 50% ! Two different classifications for the same adjustment ??? Or in other words...if Gold is in a bull market,...how do the fall/weakening of the dollar has to be called ? Nobody says that the dollar is in a bear market ! Another perfect example as to how things are "talked" up or down. The general public and many funds (confetti pools) do dance to these tunes. Thanks VanRip.

specie-man

(09/17/2003; 00:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108758)

Inflation

On the news today they said that inflation is at a 35 year low or something to that effect. Right after that they had a story about how Excel Energy (which serves Colorado) is looking to increase energy prices by 75%.

slingshot

(09/17/2003; 00:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108759)

Aragorn III

Hear Hear! I find poor Smeagol at terrible odds with himself to trust Mr. Frodo or to submit to the power of the ring. One who has been under such a power (FIAT) does not change overnight. Smeagol listens to the kindness of Frodo and wants to believe, and Frodo understands the misfortunes of this creature. Yet unfortunate occurances beset Gollum and blind him from the truth. It is soon that the Smeagols of the world will have to understand the power of Sauron, or perish in the fires of Mt Doom.

Slingshot-----------<>

specie-man

(09/17/2003; 00:48:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108760)

portfolio diversification - the other white metal

Most financial advisors stress the importance of portfolio diversification. As far as I'm concerned that means investing in different kinds of metals ! Gold and silver are frequently mentioned here, along with platinum once in a while. But don't forget the other white metal - palladium. It has had a good little run up lately, but still seems relatively cheap. Like silver, it could play an important role in future energy technologies. And it is quite a bit rarer than silver and gold.

Gonlyold

(09/17/2003; 01:01:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108761)

(No Subject)

*******New bull Market in Gold? NO!********This increase in the POG is just a jitter. TPTB cannot let gold become a source of value or currency. In order to have control, they must keep fiat money and digital money as the currency of choice in the world. Of course fiat money and digital money lend themselves to be loaned to countries and facilitates keeping countries burdened with loans and in debt. Gold, on the other hand, would increase the chances of countries like Peru, Columbia, etc. into ending up in a strong financial position, due to the heavey gold deposits they have. And countries in a strong financial position would not be induced into becoming debt ridden and therefore would not be as easily controled by TPTB. TPTB cannot allow freedom from control.

Gonlyold

(09/17/2003; 01:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108762)

$$$$$$383.3$$$$$$

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an excellant resource because of the quality of the posters. I feel that the information presented herein is of a sincere nature with an intent to tell it like it is. Although no one knows everything and no one has all the answers, the people here really try to set the record straight. Kudos to all.

DummyANI

(09/17/2003; 01:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108763)

@Mr Gresham (09/15/03; 13:28:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 108675)

http://www.nier.co.jp/e-kijikanri/news/news-00078-e.shtmlby Tadashi Nakamae:
SNIP:-----

�iNikkei Shimbun Jujiro 2003/3/13�jThe acceleration in NPL disposal is facilitating the inefficient use of resources. Banks may now be enjoying fat profits, but the windfall is being invested and stashed in government bonds, where they cannot be used efficiently.The biggest harm caused by the zero-interest-rate policy is that it has transformed the household sector into a net payer of interest. National Income and Product Account (NIPA) shows that in 2001 the household sector received Y8 trillion in interest income while paying out Y15 trillion. This was in spite of households holding net interest-bearing financial assets of Y518 trillion (Y855 trillion of interest-bearing financial assets and Y337 trillion of interest-bearing financial liabilities).Conversely, the interest margins for financial institutions totaled Y34 trillion, more than 4 times the interest income earned by households. NIPA revealed that the operating surplus at financial institutions continued to set records, reaching Y18 trillion in 2000. This exceeded the surpluses for wholesale and retailing (Y17 trillion) and manufacturing (Y12 trillion). So banks are running losses only because the cost of writing-off NPLs is so high.Put another way, if there were no NPLs, the Y18 trillion in profits earned by financial institutions would have brought in Y7 trillion worth of corporate tax revenue. Meanwhile, the resulting net income would have raised banks�f capital by Y11 trillion, enabling them to generate credit creation of more than Y100 trillion. The problem is that cash flow remains on banks�f balance sheets despite the NPL write-off, and they have used this cash flow only to buy risk-free JGBs because of the BIS regulation on capital ratios.

comment: Do you believe that according to zero-interest-rate policy a fixed 1-year deposit earns only 0.03 percent gain ?
�@That is, if you deposit 1 million yen in a commercial bank as a fixed 1-year deposit, you will gain only 300 yen after 1-year.

The above data is at 2001-year, and at 2003 households in Japan are drawing over Y20 trillion from their fixed deposit. Japanese households are not so good as Fingleton assumes.

Topaz

(09/17/2003; 04:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108764)

The new Bull Market in Gold? ...Yes.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&symbols=DX1!As the dollar seems set to resume it's upward move, the implications for Gold look bearish however...the only control dampener on the Dollar now is Gold and we'd expect it to rise in tandem. 100DX and $400 Gold look a good near-term yardstick imo.

Topaz

(09/17/2003; 04:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108765)

Price Guess $$$$364.7$$$$

The Mighty Oaken Table is......a great resource for Amateurs such as I to rub shoulders with the Pros an in so doing add to the collective wisdom.

Operative

(09/17/2003; 05:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108766)

"Introduction of gold dinar timely

http://www.brunei-online.com/bb/wed/sep17h9.htmSnip:

"Introduction of gold dinar timely
By Laila Rahman

Dr. Hj Ismail (3rd R) at the seminar
The introduction of gold dinar as a medium of payment in the international trade is timely as an alternative solution to the economy instability phenomenon as the dominance of US dollar in the world economy can be advantageous for some countries but it may not be so for many.
The gold dinar is possibly a better way of reducing economic uncertainty when there is no speculation as the dinar has an intrinsic value and is truly backed by gold, not a paper the so called fiat money."

Comment: I wonder this morning if my "American Thinking" has caused me to error. You see, I have been looking/waiting for the "trigger event" that would send PM's shooting skyward. Of course, most of my attention has been focused on an event here in the USA or Europe. Silly me, perhaps the trigger event will be from a few men meeting in some out of the way land that changes the money system forever. (One can hope)

Knallgold

(09/17/2003; 06:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108767)

Gold sales not on official IMF agenda-ESCB officials

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030917/economy_gold_1.html"FRANKFURT, Sept 17 (Reuters) - European System of Central Banks officials said on Wednesday that renewing the gold agreement might be discussed among policymakers at the Dubai meetings this weekend, but it was not on the official agenda.
An ECB spokesman said he cannot exclude that the topic would be raised on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (News - Websites) and World Bank (News - Websites) annual meetings this weekend in Dubai.

But officials are downplaying any expectations of a deal that commodity market traders have speculated central bankers might hash out in Dubai to replace the expiring 1999 pact that limited sales by European central banks for a four-year period.

Bundesbank spokesman Wolfgang Moerke said it was "nonsense" to say that ECB Governing Council Member Ernst Welteke is urging a deal in Dubai.

Rather, Welteke has said in a Bloomberg Television interview that has not yet aired: "It is not an official topic at the IMF meeting. We might discuss it on the sidelines of the meetings," according to Moerke.

European central banks holding about 14,000 tonnes of gold in their reserves, or about half the gold owned by the world's central banks, agreed in September 1999 to limit their gold sales to no more than 400 tonnes annually. Levels for sales are then specified for each bank.

The pact helped stabilise the price of gold on world markets at a time when central banks are diversifying their reserve holdings into a wider range of assets.

Bundesbank's Welteke has said that he would be interested in selling gold in "homeopathic doses." Austria and the United Kingdom have completed their sales, while Switzerland and the Netherlands have also sold some of the precious metal.

Other signatories to the accord are Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the European Central Bank. "

What do the CB-language trained minds here read into this?At least it is discussed,first it was rumours,now on the sidelines,carefully chosen/cut pieces of salami.

Clink!

(09/17/2003; 06:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108768)

Perspective

One of the interesting things about reading economic history texts is that you can gain insights to the relative size and importance of today's events by comparison to similar events of yesteryear.

The item which caught my attention last night was that the funding of the Marshall Plan - the US package of grants and soft loans which helped rebuild both a shattered Europe and Japan - was worth around $120 billion in today's money (as we have some newcomers here, I should explain that today's money is FIAT or Fed's Insane Accounting Trick) over a period of five years.

Hey, I'll make it easy. 120/5 = $24billion per year. So why is it necessary to spend $87 billion in one year on Iraq ? This sounds like galloping inflation - even when you take inflation into account !!

C!

Operative

(09/17/2003; 07:19:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108769)

@ Clink! (re: Perspective)

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2003/0702.htmThanks Sir Make a Lot of Noise. That one word heading of yours reminded me to dig through one of the many piles on the desk looking for an article. I had saved it several months ago with the intentions of reviewing it after some time had passed to see how the author had called some shots.
Anyway, lends some "Perspective" on where we have been and the direction we are headed.

Good Day!

second wind

(09/17/2003; 07:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108770)

********The New Bull Market in Gold? No.*******

The contrarion in me loves an opportunity to go against the tide, so here goes:

As I understand the term, "bull market" implies a long-term uptrend in price. At this point, it seems more likely that instead we will witness a dramatic increase over a relatively short period, as the market awakens from its long slumber and recognizes gold in its role as monetary instrument. Following this, governments world-wide will almost certainly respond with measures to stabilize the situation, intervening as they have (and still do) by both visible and subversive means. If they are unsuccessful, then in the ensuing chaos the term "bull market" would be inapplicable to any commodity.
No, I foresee sudden and irreversible recrystallization, as when a seed crystal is added to a supersaturated salt solution, rather than a slowly heating pot. The situation is near critical, the potential seeds are many.

I've been lurking here for some time, greatly enjoying and appreciating the ongoing discussions. As this is my first post, I would like to say that in all sincerity, I feel very fortunate that I stumbled upon this forum in my search for information on converting my savings to gold and silver. My ignorance was profound, and like the many, gold and the underlying economic situation was "off my radar."
Thank you all.

Well, darn, now that I've said all that, it remains to guess the price of gold. Of course the best strategy is to wait until the last moment, when maximum information is available (this is my one issue with the forum - these contests should be for the price at least a month in advance of the closing date, so that waiting is less of an advantage!)

*** $392.50 ***

Operative

(09/17/2003; 07:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108771)

It's Just Not The Economy They Are Tinkering With

http://www.seedsofdeception.com/NOTE: This is off topic, but willing to chance the post since if there is no food to eat, niether fiat nor gold will do us much good.

"Normally you wouldn't expect a fish to mate with a tomato," said Jeffrey M. Smith (seedsofdeception), a researcher who was the sounding the alarm about genetically modified (GM) foods"

The above qoute gives one a glimpse of the matter. My first hand experience leads me into thinking this may be a problem of biblical proportions waiting around the bend. With my small farm I have found that finding/purchasing seeds for my crops that have NOT been genetically engineered is growing more difficult each year. Along with "side effects" that these modified crops may have on our health, the fact that they only produce one crop means we are one crop away from food system failure. You dont hear much about this subject in the USA/Monsanto Land, but the folks in Europe have some vital concerns over what we are doing to the food chain, and I think very little has to do with protecting markets from a 'trading' point of view.

Just another area to keep our eyes on.

cockerel1

(09/17/2003; 08:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108772)

J. P. Morgan and Newcrest

http://data.iguana2.com/stockhouse/news-item?Exchange=ASX&Code=NCM&Liveness=DELAYEDΝmber=208950-ANewcrest Mining, one of the largest Gold Mines in Australia has just announced a substantial holding has been secured by J.P. Morgan.

Guess the life jackets are being thrown out, and they recognize the ship is in distress.

Liberty Head

(09/17/2003; 09:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108773)

Medical workers face military draft

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=33754
Snippit:
The Pentagon will draft experienced medical personnel, including medics, nurses and physicians, in the event of a national emergency.

The plan calls for the president to issue a proclamation ordering 13.5 million health-care professionals to register for a draft within 13 days. Following the proclamation, Congress would quickly pass legislation authorizing the draft of health-care workers aged 20-44, and for the first time in U.S. history, the draft would include women.
----------------

Some popular gold sites on the web urge their viewers to consider keeping some gold off shore. Perhaps we should also consider the wisdom of keeping our famillies off shore as well.

New Zealand and Australia look more attractive to me each day.

Gooday Mates

cockerel1

(09/17/2003; 09:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108774)

Things that make you go Hummm!

Wonder why J.P. Morgan did not issue a News Release to its shareholders on this transaction?

Maybe they don't think it is very important!

The Hoople

(09/17/2003; 09:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108775)

Operative

I have always felt the "terminator" gene encoded into seeds was one of the most vile and dastardly capitalist inventions ever. That it has become near monopolistic,i.e. ADM and Monsanto, means a few people could control the fate of hundreds of millions of lives. This is a fascist paradise. Gold is indeed worthless if you starve to death. Off topic maybe, but scary.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/17/2003; 09:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108776)

The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time!
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Ag Mountain

(09/17/2003; 09:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108777)

Cockerell, you should read your news again more carefully

It will become more apparent to you that JPMorgan is barely involved as an administrative conduit to facilitate Barclay's financial doings on behalf of its clients. Sorry; no smoke, no fire.

cockerel1

(09/17/2003; 10:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108778)

Sir Ag Mountain and the rest of the knights and ladies.

Sincere apologies to all.

Methinks I need more coffee!

admin

(09/17/2003; 10:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108779)

MK's Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New QuickNotes

Gondolin

(09/17/2003; 10:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108780)

Of Hobbits...

*****$379.0*****

The tale is older by far than memory goes back for most...but, so it was told once:

And the Valar grew two trees of light, one of gold and one of silver, which cast their unearthly, beauteous light across the Seas and all were drawn to the beauty of their light. And for an Age all acknowledged the power of the Valar and the basked in the Light of the Two Trees.

Yet Morgoth craved all the light for himself and with the help of the foul, bloated body of Ungoliant whose vile hunger and craving could never be slaked, he threw down the trees, devouring the light and all the world was plunged into darkness.

Still hope there was, for Feanor, mightiest and greatest artisan of the Elf Lords of Anor still bore the light of the trees, captured within the Silmarils he had wrought.

Yet these too were borne away by Morgoth and on their return the Noldor found the vaults sacked, looted and empty and the Silmarils taken.

However the Light of the Trees was the Light of the Valar, and could not be cast down by Morgoth alone, and their light was restored as the Sun and the Moon in the heavens, as a symbol of hope, beautiful to behold but beyond the reach of all.

Across the Seas the Noldor returned to Beleriand as Middle Earth was then known in pursuit of Morgoth, and their coming was as a ringing of horns and a cry of thousands of voices, and they declared war upon Morgoth for the luster of the Silmarils. And for a time he trembled deep upon his throne beneath the Mountains of Thangorodrim.

Yet his caverns were deep as the Mountains roots, and dark servants aplenty he had at his call, and he issued forth in battle to the challenge of the Noldor, with Balrogs and Dragons and uncountable hosts of Orcs foul.

For an age Elves and Men strove futiley against the might of Morgoth, for his might could not be cast down. And ever he created new and fouler servants to perform his evil. And he took and twisted all that was noble and fair until it was unrecognisable from that which it once was.

And Man and Elf, Dwarf and Dragon fought each other for an Age. Ever the Silmarils were held deep in the caverns of the Fortress of Thangorodrim, upon the brow of Morgoth. And great deeds were performed, Deeds of which songs are still sung, of Beren and Luthien, of Fingolfin and Turin Turambar- the Black Blade of Nargothrond. Yet many fell to the shadow, and many whose stars shone brightly were lost to the Shadow. And one by one through greed, lust and betrayal the Kingdoms of the Elflords fell, Nargothrond, Beleriand, Doriath and even hidden Gondolin with its Seven Gates wrought of Wood, Iron, Steel, Silver, Gold, Adamantium and Mithril.

For Morgoth did not play by the rules of others, and ever he sought to twist and deceive, to lie and to cheat. And ever he sought to enslave that which was free. And too often were his lies believed.

For the light of the Silmarils was cursed, and all who possessed that light were doomed to fall in fire and madness. To burn. For the Light of the Silmarils was not the true light of the Two Trees. It was a substitute.

Yet it was the Light of a Silmaril, upon the brow or Earendil the Mariner which brought him across the Seas to the Valar, and they unleashed their wrath upon Morgoth and cast threw him down. He was cast beyond time, never to return, and a new Age descended. The Age of Man.

Alas, Man is Weak. And the Lust of Power and the Curse of the Silmarils again betrayed him. For the Kings of Numenor likened themselves to the Valar and in their Madness they sought to raise themselves amongst the Gods. But their Path was one of Madness and doomed to failure. They were betrayed. Sauron, Lieutenant of Morgoth had deceived them, and again all was cast down in Ruin.

And in a later Age the tales of the Two Trees of Light, and the Silmarils, and the Wars of Power were forgotten. And simple people enjoyed things like food and ale, and pipeweed (we can only but wonder at what sort of weed the Hobbits and Gandalf are so enamoured of). And there were times of plenty.

Yet a Shadow stirred again. And Sauron, long forgotten, but just another manifestation of his Master Morgoth rose again, determined to take away not only the light, but the freedom of all.

Yet there is hope. For Hobbits are sturdy folk, well read and surprisingly learned, and resistant to evil and deceit far more than Men. Men have been deceived again by Dark Forces, and they Rally again to Saurons cause. The time of the Hobbits is upon us, and a new Age may well come. For even the smallest of us is capable of performing great deeds. And allies there will be aplenty on the Trail that must be followed. The Black Blade of Nargothrond, Gandalf the White, Aragorn and bright eyed Laure Melda. Indeed even tricksy Smeagol may yet have a great role to play.

The Road leads ever on�.

The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore reveals the relevance of Historical Events and Contemporary actions upon the events unfolding today. The smoke and mirrors tricks are undertaken by the same people for the same reasons and hidden from the majority by an ever changing propaganda machine of monstrous proportions. The battle will not be easily won, and I fear the messengers of Sauron are merely hiding his true intent behind glib and honeyed words.

Yet the Table will cast aside the illusions and cast scorn upon the lies.

For the history of thousands of years is indeed remembered at this Table. Galadriel was there when Morgoth cast down the Trees, both she and Elrond were there when Sauron deceived the Men of Numenor. And Gandalf the White is a Wielder of the Secret Fire of Anor, and the Dark Fire shall avail not the Darkness.

And the true beauty and meaning of the Silver and Gold light of the Two Trees and the freedom they represent is remembered here still.

Basilides

(09/17/2003; 10:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108781)

Sornette's prediction

To Usul

The upcoming prediction should be interesting from the very viewpoint that you brought up - the possibility of large market players changing the dynamics that would have otherwise been in effect. Many worldwide investment bankers and other market makers have recently downloaded information from Sornette's website, and a significant amount of discussion has gone on in widely read financial publications, making an intervention feasible. It seems to me the result of such an intervention would differ according to whether it's a bubble (with the critical time point approaching, and more affectable) or an anti-bubble (as is now predicted) with the critical time point long in the past, and possibly less affectable.

Ag Mountain

(09/17/2003; 10:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108782)

That's a good article Knallgold

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030917/economy_gold_2.htmlI wonder if many people will find the deep significance in this interview comment.

*****European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ernst Welteke said on Wednesday that renewing a gold sale agreement might be discussed among policymakers meeting in Dubai, but it was not on the official agenda. "I think it is a subject that will possibly be discussed in Dubai, but we regularly meet each other in other places, so it doesn't have to be Dubai," Welteke said in a Bloomberg television interview aired on Wednesday.*****

It shows us that we are really naive if we have let ourselves assume they haven't actually given regular strategic thought and discussion to the fate of their most precious dear-bought institutionally irreplaceable class of asset. This is very encouraging to see. Officially Europe alone is more boldly stepping forward in letting their gold savvy show through in gleams after decades of being heavily cloaked everywhere in the world that officials gathered. You can bet it has everything to do with the euro agenda to shrug off the crusty old dollar machinations. They know the dollar can't compete under broad daylight for a fair share of use.

Knallgold

(09/17/2003; 10:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108783)

BubaGold

"..Bundesbank's Welteke has said that he would be interested in selling gold in "homeopathic doses."

I particularly like this "homeopathic doses"-if your a science guy,the point in homeopathie is that,materially,it is basically nothing (in the sense of the amount of molecules involved.They say its a kind of memory effect).But I don't wanna start here a discussion about that.

Somehow though I see parallels with paper Gold-treating something with nothing through way of deceit...

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 10:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108784)

WOWSERS, Sir Gondolin !!!

Gondolin (09/17/03; 10:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 108780)
Of Hobbits...
===
THAT is a "KEEPER" !
Thanks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 11:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108785)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe USAGOLD Forum "FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

Looks as if the Entries are now starting to "ROLL IN" ! <;-)

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entries.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 11:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108786)

WELCOME Sir Second Wind !!!

second wind (9/17/03; 07:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108770)
===
Perfect timing ! I needed to catch my "second wind".
GO GOLD !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 11:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108787)

I am hoping to hear from Sir Dr, Z -------

What say you Sir Z ?
<;-)

specie-man

(09/17/2003; 11:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108788)

********The New Bull Market in Gold? No.*******

No, this is not a "new" bull market in gold. The current long-term bull market in gold started in 1913 with the founding of the US Federal Reserve corporation. From that moment on, the fate of the dollar and the fate of gold was sealed - the dollar would forever decline and gold would forever increase (with a few bumps along the way).

specie-man

(09/17/2003; 11:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108789)

$$$$$$ 373.20 $$$$$$

This MOTY (Mighty Oaken Table of Yore) is an important resource for me. Every time I think about selling some of our holdings, I come here, read a little, and decide not to.

Belgian

(09/17/2003; 12:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108790)

Knallgold >>> Dubai meeting :

The Welteke word, "homeopathic", is adding more to the thick, already existing fog, that covers the CB's gold-policies. What help are the sales of a few tonnes goldreserves going to bring ? None imo. Or is there more gold needed to contain the POG...? Why should the EMU (euro) want to contain (lower) the POG ?

Those CB's messages/statements/rumors for public consumption are "incoherent", because of a missing (unknown) fundamental .

The "homeopathic" might indicate that the present goldprice is OK for some (most) of the official EMU goldreserves ?
But the WAG already signaled that a low POG will not be tolerated.

Of course, there will be gold-talk in Dubai. But they don't want to come up with a public statement, most probably because of internal dis-agreement on goldreserve policies (price) ?

Could it be that the EMU national banks (and their national goldreserves) have no clue either why they are not allowed to sell their gold for national purposes and don't understand the ECB's gold directives ? And that this leads to the confusing statements. Welteke speaks for Germany and not for the EMU (ECB).

The only conclusion I can make on this whole CB hullaballoo is that there is a missing-unknown fundamental waiting to pop up at the appropiate moment through an ECB statement.

R Powell

(09/17/2003; 12:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108792)

BIS news

In the quote below currencies, deposits, treasury bills and securities are mentioned. And, at the end of the list someone added gold. Now, that's enough to make one think that gold is being classified as a form of exchange or as a store of value, isn't it? Don't they know that the Fed. would like gold listed with copper, corn, cocoa, coffee and soybean oil? They seem to have misplaced gold under the category of "currency fund".

1 new document(s) found since 08.09.2003:

1. Publication (29.04.2003 09:50)
Payment systems in Singapore Singapore CPSS - Red Book - 2003 317 Table of contents List of abbreviations............................................................................................................................. 319 Introduction .......
http://www.bis.org/cpss/paysys/SingaporeComp.pdf (PDF, 128340 bytes)

..of a currency fund consisting of foreign currencies, demand and time deposits, treasury bills and securities, and gold. Singapore 322 CPSS - Red Book - 2003 With the increasing trend towards electronic transactions, digital...

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 12:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108793)

TAAA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

I, wish to advise you all, that on Wednesday 9/17/03, the "KING of the HILL" is --
Sir Dry Washer! (FOR the THIRD day in a row !)
BUT, can it last much longer ?
NAW ! <;-)

Great Albino Bat

(09/17/2003; 12:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108794)

"Homeopathic" gold sales.....hmmmm

Maybe Herr Welteke should not try to be so clever with words; he is trying to downplay the volume of gold he wants the Bundesbank to sell, and trying to make it sound like "no big deal".

A. It must be a considerably BIG deal, for him to have been persistently voicing the wish to sell more gold, for many months now. When did he begin his plaintive expressions, perhaps more than a year ago?

B. The word selected, might be a giveaway. "Homeopathic doses"? Sounds like someone - a Bank - is SICK and needs gold, in "homeopathic doses". Who could that be? How about some big, big German bank that has borrowed Bundesbank gold, and needs ever more urgently to return it. Since the private German bank cannot return the gold, the "sale" of Bundesbank gold will simply legalize a matter of fact: the Bundesbank lent the gold, and cannot recover the loan from the borrower, so it simply holds an "auction" and voila! the awkward situation is terminated.

Guano from the GAB

Great Albino Bat

(09/17/2003; 12:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108795)

Forest, welcome to usagold.com. Perhaps you are unaware.....

That advertising is quite forbidden on this Forum. Doubtless you will hear about this, from CPM itself.

The GAB

Operative

(09/17/2003; 13:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108796)

@ Liberty Head, Your Post Explains It.

Have printed out the article on possible drafting of medical personel. During the last 6-8 months my wife has recieved, unsolicited from our end, large fancy packages from both the Navy and (2) from the Air Force filled with brochures/offers to join thier ranks. (wife is medical doctor) We have enjoyed looking through the offers, mostly laughing. I remember a few times making the comment "what in the world do they want with a 42 year old?". We both agreed that it must be some computer mistake on some unknown mailing list. She is not ex military, spoke with a recruiter some 20 years ago while at med school. No furthur contact. Your link is going to provide some interesting after dinner conversation this evening. Events are getting a little too wierd these days. After filing (trash) the last package we both jokingly said that if they tried to draft her she would apply for a staff medical position at a US Embassy in Belize. (Speaks French & Spanish). Maybe she should start work on a resume.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/17/2003; 13:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108797)

Page Update!

Aurion

(09/17/2003; 14:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108798)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

An ominuos calm will soon develop on Wall Street...on the very eve of the storm.

Bush has opened the floodgates of military spending and a sharp and continuing rise in the US budget deficit is a reality. As it comes on top of a huge current account deficit, it will inevitably ratchet inflation expectations higher. When that happens, long term interest rates will finally shoot up and the dollar drop. This will set off an an unstable process of lower US bond prices, severly undermining also confidence in the US stock market.

However, there is a place of refuge. Gold and its shares have been in a trend rise over the past two years. This makes them a convincing alternative to other assets - it is a case of success breeding success. As a result, unusual amounts of money will soon begin to pour into the gold and silver markets, pressing their prices much higher. Sure, there may be desperate efforts by bullion banks and assorted central banks to contain the rise, but all in vain.

This will be the second coming of gold. We saw the first bull market in the late 1970s, peaking in 1980. Now again, the conditions are finally favouring a meaningful rise in the gold price. Gold will enter a bona fide bull market.

The price of gold could easily rise above $1,000, far outstripping what we�ve become accustomed to during the past twenty odd years. Aside from the modest Washington Agreement rally, the mediocre rises in recent years have mostly been attributable to international arbitrage in the gold market related to changes in the value of the dollar. Not this time.

What is more, further negative news on the economy, financial system or political system will only serve to exacerbate this development.

Ahead is the bull market we�ve all been waiting for. The time is now.

Aurion

(09/17/2003; 14:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108799)

$$$$$$ 402.40 $$$$$$

The next few days will be decisive in heralding the next leg up in the gold bull. When the price of gold breaks through $400, it will be the last we see of dirt cheap gold.

Belgian

(09/17/2003; 14:57:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108800)

@ GAB

Welteke - Deutsche Bank - Bundesbank - Goldreserves :
If...IF, there should be a problem about lost physical gold...how about an EMU internal reshuffle of goldreserves from for instance Portugal (or Switzerland) to the Bundesbank at a friendly price and delivered in physical !? Since there is (supposedly) 400 tonnes of CB-gold on the move per year...that German gold-derivative and loss of physical could be easely (discretely) arranged/neutralized !? What do you reckon ?

Pr� 1971, American gold had to be physically delivered to Europ in order to keep the dollar expanding. Why should the present EMU sell goldreserves when the ECB is marking its goldreserves to market ???
If your house is booked as a reserve-asset, quarterly valued at the market's price...are you going to encourage house-sales and get those houseprices (housing market) suppressed/disturbed ?

If Welteke has the intention of saving the Deutsche Bank from a possible collapse and the Bundesbank from losing some goldreserves...he should have kept absolutely quiet and organize the rescue in absolute discretion !

There must be another enigmatic reason ! And I impossibly can't find a plausible one. Think we are all looking into the wrong direction with the Welteke saga. And this will continue for as long as we have no clue as to where that CB's gold is moving. And I keep on excluding that this gold is absorbed into the jewelry industry !!! Otherwise the EMU CBs would have maneuvered the POG much higher, despite the resulting dollar-pressure such a maneuver would cause.

The only reason why the EMU could agree on keeping the POG, "temporary" contained might be that it is dis-couraging the National Central banks from the temptation to sell more of it, because of the high/higher price and use the income for delaying structural reforms !?

All thoughts are wellcome, as usual.

White Rose

(09/17/2003; 15:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108801)

How is this whole thing rigged?

After JFK was assassinated, Johnson wanted a blue-ribbon committee to white-wash the whole thing. Everybody suggested Earl Warren as the ideal person to front for this enterprise. The story goes that twice Earl was offered the job by Johnson, and twice Earl said no. Finally, Johnson said that unless this matter was handled right, there might be a nuclear war and 40 million Americans would end up dead. On hearing this, Earl Warren said "yes", and then formed the famous "Warren Commission" which has been the model for white-washed commissions ever since.

My question is: how many people are out there that are part of the effort to rig the markets who really understand all the levers of power? These individuals must know gold, silver, interest rates, forex, Japan mess, Iraq, oil, natural gas, peak oil, mutual funds, GSE's, housing bubble, etc. etc. It is a mine field to rig these markets without blowing something else up.

Who is doing the rigging? How weere they recruited? Who is suppervising them? Who is making sure that no one is buying gold on the side or front running this whole mess?

From this elite group, there are masses of knowledgable people in the financial field that know that something is up. That this is a good time to keep your mouth shut and an extra close eye on the markets. I have an image of 100,000 laptops in financial officies around the world. Each of these laptops is pre-programmed to sell everything the firm or client has to get out of the markets/bonds/forex. Each is arranged so that a single keystroke starts the process.

Once things start to break down, they will break down in a real hurry. When the whistle blows, you want your wealth in a place where it is untouched by the effects of those 100,000 laptops. I can think of no better place that that offered by our hosts.

Aragorn III

(09/17/2003; 15:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108803)

To know the flavor of the pie...

One may study the trajectory and know nothing. Or if by chance you take it in the face, you will immediately know more than those who simply stand laughing nearby.

Kindest regards to Belgian for this well-aimed throw.

"The only reason why the EMU could agree on keeping the POG, "temporary" contained might be that it is dis-couraging the National Central banks from the temptation to sell more of it, because of the high/higher price and use the income for delaying structural reforms."

Peachy.

got gold?

melda laure

(09/17/2003; 16:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108804)

Mr Grasso,

I wanted to say, before events took over, the question isn't Mr Grasso's pay, but the fact that he's cashing out while he still can- even if it means leaving ANOTHER 48 on the table. The timing is probably a more important fact than the size; and after all, 35 years is almost a lifetime as men count it.

melda laure

(09/17/2003; 17:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108805)

white rose.

Indil fanea irima

How many know? Well a lot more than might otherwise thanks to the likes of you! (smile) Sometimes it seems we tilt at windmills- when in fact it's probably more like sticking a rod into a hornets nest. The excellent post by Gondolin got me thinking: there's a few things I've learned over the years. First, never gamble in Morgoth's Casino. Sure you'll win a dozen rounds, but as soon as he's bored with you, he'll whistle for the balrog guards and away you go. Second, never gamble in Sauron's casino; makes you wonder If I learned the first lesson or not - like YOU'd remember the first lesson after an age! The smart money left numenor early, before the land sank beneath the waves... um well, more like a giant tectonic subduction sucking sound - and like Dick Grasso, they probably left nice government jobs and/or contracts for a tough life in the wilderness. Third, the lies of Sauron are cunning and subtle: MK likes to talk about the persistent and continuous trash talk AU receives in the press, but what I hear is mostly silence, and a lot of dollar/Nasdaq cheering. And when the subject does come up it NEVER comes up in the context discussed here.

That bears repeating: The gold discussion here is unlike that found ANYWHERE else- unless it's some Gold-Dinar conference.

We might remember, Feanor got whupped, then burned, Gilgalad died trying, Elrond found only grief of long years. You can not change the mind of the valar until they are ready- and then they will clean up the mess on their terms, and your ship had better be a tight one or it wont ride those waves. We are not heroes, we aren't looking for big riches (well, some of us are, but we wont confuse investing with saving our behinds.) Stunts like Fingolfin's may be memorable but nobody will sing of them - you do not score "points" against the likes of, dag nabbit I cant bring my self to say it, I'm getting so choked up.... ahh me....

... you do a smash and grab while your ladyfriend distracts the... proprietor (appropriator) or sweet talk em like Bilbo. Gold is cheap, there's need neither for lawsuits nor gunslinging when TPTB are willing to part with it for a few US green stamps.

Two trees there were, a silver and a gold. Antal Feteke has suggested why this must be so. Two trees also are mentioned in the bible; regardless, if the annunaki think gold so desireable they're willing to waste years on digging it up, you can bet there's no nuclear process to sythesize it at this point in time or anywhere in the last couple of million years. Paper, (or electronic bits) are another matter. Let me give you an example 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 you can have that in euros dinars dollars or anything else you'd like to type into your terminal. Dick Grasso cant convert his 140 million into 13 tons, he'll need lots of favors to clear that sort of deal. We of much less means have no such problems- our stashes may be homeopathic but they'll pack a punch nonetheless.

sorry for the rant. Gondolin, loved your post: auta fiat! Laure entuluva.

CoBra(too)

(09/17/2003; 18:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108806)

Excellent Comments ...

by Belgian and Aragorn III.

I just wonder if Welteke's gold musings stem from DB's (Deutsche Bank)takeover of Bankers Trust - an oxymoron in itself - as there is no banker you can trust. Trust me, I've been one.

... And when DB offered to take over JPM, Chase was quickly sent to rescue the US, or rather FED, Flagship, or better executive arm of the latter to avoid this damocletian sword.

No one really knows what deep storage means, though it happens to seem somehow connected to the Deutsche BuBa (Bundes Bank)missing (receivable?)1.700 tons of their gold. That's half of the BuBa gold - in deep storage at West Point?

The (West) point is - who in hell got away with half of BuBa's gold? And how can I s(t)ell it to my constituents?

Well, Welteke is trying hard and will, ostensibly, fail.

So for the moment forget about structural economic reforms, which are undeliverable in a socialistic government anyway, and think about the future ... hmm...

Got too many dollars? You're probably not the only one - sic SEA - Got Gold?

Marked to (reality) market - forget COMEX, LBMA and any other paper substitute - get real and get the metal - cb2

(09/17/2003; 19:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108807)

CB2....

Excellent point. What happens when two international banks from two different continents merge, the gold book transfers from one fiat money central bank system to another, and the new central bank in its lender of last resort function must now tap gold reserves to keep the bank afloat? It is the duty of the German Bundestag (if that's what they still call themselves -- the German legislative/parliamentary body) to look into this and understand the extent to which Welteke's action affects the German people. From there they need determine how much of the burden should be shouldered by the German people and how much should be borne by the stockholders of the private banks involved. Welteke is doing his best impression of Gordon Brown. Watch for this gold to be channelled through the private banks involved for reasons both you and I fully understand. As I say, excellent point, CB and I'm glad you brought it up for those who haven't examined the nuances of these gold sales to understand their more subtle sources.

Smeagol

(09/17/2003; 19:16:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108808)

Sstirred the pot, we did

Sss... (grumble)... we sees that our past still causes some concern, but thiss was expected. So, Smeagol says 'Hear Ye', then says, we hates Fiat, and the Power it
has, and we uses it with one hand only, while the other gathers It, round and yellow. Is this shifty? Is this sneaky? (maybe, to the Men out of the Big Countries
with machines that print the nassty stinking paper).

Keep your rings! We are DONE with rings! Any rings, made of anything! (shudder). No one thought we would ever return. They thought we perished in the Fire. And it
hurtss us that we may yet be misstrusted, missunderstood. But Smeagol is free now and has a heart of gold, even if some can't see. We tries to tell others, but they
think us insane. Just blame everything on poor Smeagol when Paper crashes. Been through far worse, he has.

Smeagol

(09/17/2003; 19:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108809)

***** The New Bull Market in Gold - THERE IS NONE *****

Bear Market? Bull Market? What are these but lies planted in our minds by our Enemy, like Fiat, like Hedge Fund, designed to draw one into deception, like a wizard (no, NOT Gandalf!) does to make People look h e r e when he doesn't want them to look t h e r e. Gold jusst IS, and It is constant! Don't look at markets. Always keep eyes on where It IS, not where it APPEARS to be. The resst will follow, and betray the trick. Round Table People do that. It's why we came here, sso we could learn how to do thiss, too. Thanks you all kind People (bow).

steady

(09/17/2003; 19:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108810)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

WE are in a bull market for gold.
well lets see why u ask. first the number of products using gold as an endorsment has risen dramatically over the past two years. someone somewhere wants to be involved with a winner, someone somewhere else needs to sublimanally get the message out.
rember the gold tostitos bowl game.
rember the halftime show sting in gold madona in silver!
we are in a gold bull market because the second minting of the dinar all spoken for.
we are in a bull market cause th average investor like me is being shut out of the dinar for the moment and when im allowed to buy i have to buy over 500 dinar coins at one time.( i called the mint and asked them about it. you two can call there #is easily found via ther net)
we are in a bull market cause the value of the federal reserve note is returning to its norm (par value) O and we all know about the inverse relationship the two have.
Most important we are in a gold bull market due to the efforts of 1)chris powell who has taken the big boys on for trying to screw the average investor.
2) the efforts of the GATA team the tirsome nights spamming the financial boards with info that only 24-29 months ago seemed outlandish that people asked us if we where from another planet, now we can tell them yes we are from uranus where honesty means something along with integrity something sevely lacking from so called leaders ie now known as liars on this planet earth.
The number of people gata has effected and will continue to effect is growing daily, the dont desreve al the credit but some for the bull market in gold we are experiencing. we are in a gold bull market cause as you know gold is currency specific and it has been trending up in all currencies.
lastly ,not arrogantly but gold is in a bull market becuase that is what my perception and intellect are telling me and thats is all that realy mattersto me. to have otheres confirm my thoughts brings me sanity for my perceptions are becomoing truth as others realize there folly in beliving in fiat paper money.
we are in a gold bull market because gold is HONEST MONEY.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

steady

(09/17/2003; 19:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108811)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$387.90$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource. cause well it explains everything. see everything is relate dto gold. Gold u cant bank with it you cant bank with out it. chris powell said that, or something like that.
so belive it or not everything revlove around gold an dhere i can get that info regardless if its bond news , its here , currency news its here. central bank news uh let me think...uh yea its here to. is there anythig not here realted to gold? not that i can think of a one stop supper gold shop of ideas ,compadrees, comeradey , jovality, occasionaly sopirited debate and often time deep intelectual ramblings causing hte brain to reverbartet othe golden harmonics of the earth so much so tha t well you pick the phone up and call the hostest with the mostes centenial precious metals for there excelent service of getting you as much gold silver as your understanding allows for.
this table is a great resouce cause it has withstood the test of time its legs still balnced and built upon a roick solid foundation i can come sit down rest a bit and explre thoughts and ideas oce almost forgotten byu the average schmuck . thats why i come here and thats why its the best resource on the net!

pilgrims_gold

(09/17/2003; 19:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108812)

$$$$$$375.70$$$$$$$

Gold bull entry to follow

pilgrims_gold

(09/17/2003; 19:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108813)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

The Dow/Gold ratio
1 in 1897
18 in 1929
2 in 1932
28 in 1966
1 in 1980
45 in 2000 (end of bull market)
Currently the Dow/Gold ratio is 9545.65/375.7 =
25.4 in Sept/2003
soon to be 1!!!!!!
3000/$3000
4000/$4000
5000/$5000
?
These all look great!!!!!

Dollar Bill

(09/17/2003; 20:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108814)

*>*............+

New forum posters, Like MK, I hope you will post.
My little secret? I read all the posts. Granted, I can speed read somewhat, so that helps. Sometimes it is someones offhand comment that catches me. Or personal stories of a changing economy.

steady

(09/17/2003; 20:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108815)

mistake.

i posted that the dollar is returning to its par value 0
that is wrong as that would mean the dollar actually appreciated to 0 from its creation as - (negative) so any move to zero means appreciation. sorry bout that confusion i mean to say the dollar returnig to its par value -0

goldenpeace

(09/17/2003; 20:46:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108816)

$$$$$$$379.20$$$$$$$$$

Honored to be standing next to Gondolin.
The $ is starting to spin out of control as U.S. efforts in Iraq flounder at great cost, The Federal deficit spins out of control , and all the subsequent "pushing on a string" simply flows into a too high trade deficit.....our former friends are getting nervous about all those $ reserves.
Gold anyone?...it's no one's liability...except unwise derivative hedgers, who'll soon get their just desserts.
Bowing
goldenpeace

goldenpeace

(09/17/2003; 20:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108817)

Addendum....

Only at this Mighty Oaken Table can the facts be found to keep one on the right path....it has long been so...thanks MK
Bowing
goldenpeace
sorry Gandalf for 2 pieces...they do clink together!

Gandalf the White

(09/17/2003; 21:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108818)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Black Blade

(09/17/2003; 21:51:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108819)

(Precious Metals) Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The activity in gold and silver also portend financial storms in the Foreign Exchange Market. Currencies are being inflated around the globe and investors are already turning to gold and silver as a safe haven to preserve their wealth. The U.S. Dollar bear market will continue as long as the Feds continue their relentless campaign for growth at any expense.

Black Blade: Indeed! In fact I am toying with an idea along these lines to add to the DMR, perhaps tomorrow. Some very "interesting" events are taking place in the "Currency War". You will just have to stay tuned for that one.

Snippit:

The continued loose money policy of the Fed is nothing less than extremely gold friendly! Gold has been in a very quiet bull market since the bottom was reached at $253 just prior to the Washington Agreement in September 1999 when European Central Banks agreed to limit their sales of gold bullion. Gold made a double bottom in April of 2001 at $255 per ounce and has never looked back since then.

Black Blade: More food for thought here for those of you entering the current "essay contest". Heck, maybe Mike Hartman should enter the contest himself and at least get that "first time poster" ounce of silver!

Snippit:

The price of gold considers both increasing commodity prices and declining currency values. Gold would have to be considered "Boss Dog" of all tangible items. The only item I would substitute for gold is silver, since there is MUCH LESS physical silver available than there is gold. Silver has been consumed; while gold remains political.

Black Blade: Hey silverbugs! You too Rich! This should give you some tingles. Personally I think that all the precious metals (gold, silver, and PGMs) are just in the very beginning stages of a rocket ride but I will leave at that for now. BTW, more on silver and some interesting rumors about a lot of brokers scrounging for a large supply are in today's DMR in case anyone missed it.

Snippit:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is said to be the benchmark for American business and serves well as a proxy for paper assets, while gold represents all things tangible. It is fascinating to view this relationship as a ratio over time. The ratio topped out in August 1999 just prior to the Washington Agreement when it took almost 45 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. Today you can buy the Dow with roughly 25 ounces of gold. By the time the primary trends exhaust themselves, I expect the Dow / Gold ratio to bottom out between 1 (one) and 5 (five). You did read it correctly. The ratio should bottom when the Dow can be bought with one to five ounces of gold.

Black Blade: Damn straight! I think that almost anything can happen now. Last night I mentioned that the equities indices look "toppy" with insiders bailing out at a ever increasing pace while Lemmings blindly mull about in a state of complacency. Actually I look for gold to be fairly valued in a range closer to $650 an ounce based on pre-strong dollar prices and adjusted for "real" inflation (as defined by layman's terms of inflation), with a strong upward bias for greater gains. Sound absurd like a goldbug's wildest fantasies? Stay tuned. Actually I keep finding myself amazed at how much Puplava, Hartman, and myself are thinking so much along the same lines considering they are more attuned to TA while I am more an advocate of FA. Anyway, take the time to read the article by Hartman tonight as he gives a good concise rundown and his take on the DOW/Gold Ratio (see link above) and today's DMR (especially for you silverbugs and some comments by gold producer insiders). Well worth reading Hartman's take tonight!

BTW, this week's "quadruple witching" could be "amusing" if not at least "interesting".

Black Blade

(09/17/2003; 22:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108820)

Business leaders question economic forecasts

http://www.freep.com/money/business/tompor17_20030917.htm
Snippit:

It's not that nobody wants to believe the rosy forecasts for a robust economic rebound this year. Who wouldn't want to believe the blahs are behind us? And sure, we see a couple of hopeful signs. But so far many on the front lines must scratch their heads, twice, when they hear talk of economists predicting the best six months since late 1999.

Black Blade: The carnival barkers and the cheerleaders in Fantasyland are spinning a good tale but Real World corporate leaders aren't buying it. Instead insiders are bailing out and selling shares. Red Flag? You betchya! "Jobless Recovery" - now isn't that an oxymoron? Hmmm...

Black Blade

(09/17/2003; 22:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108821)

Visa says card volume rises 12.5 pct from 1st qtr

NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Visa International, the credit and debit card company, said on Tuesday second-quarter card sales volume rose 12.5 percent from the first quarter, helped by low interest rates and rising debit card usage. The Foster City, California-based company said volume totaled $710 billion, up from $631 billion in the first quarter. Volume rose despite "a very challenging consumer spending environment," Chief Executive Malcolm Williamson said in a statement. For the year ended June 30, sales volume also rose 12.5 percent, to $2.7 trillion, Visa said. Separately, Visa said second-quarter debit card volume totaled $353 billion, up 15 percent from a year earlier.

Black Blade: More Americans living on debt adding more debt by living on plastic. OMG, a disaster just waiting to happen for many. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance (especially now), and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. At worst you will get by in case of natural disaster, job loss, medical calamity, etc., and at best you will sleep well at night knowing you're prepared should things go wrong. The best insurance for all life's little surprises is "preparation".

Look, I am not some "survivalist" sitting in a bunker atop a chest of gold and silver surrounded by MREs, guns and ammo. I like most just want to be secure for me and mine and not to have to put my "trust" in those who can't be trusted. Preparation is also good for peace of mind and simply a prudent course of action.

Remarx

(09/17/2003; 22:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108822)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

One may favor a capital based Keynesian, neo-classical or Austrian school economic model, or even a labor based socialist model, as the best way to organize commerce. One may lean politically toward a neo-liberal or neo-conservative perspective, lean much further to the left, prefer to remain outside the fray, or even feel that all politics is without hope. One may be a citizen of any nation on the planet.

Yet all must recognize the role of gold as a stable measure and store of wealth throughout the course of human history since its first monetary use thousands of years ago. It cannot be denied that the presence and distribution of gold has often been used as a foundation for restoring health to sickly economic systems whenever circumstances or human nature have allowed the value of currency to drift far enough from a meaningful base.

There is no doubt that we find ourselves in a global economy that is in such an unhealthy state today. Significantly different from difficult times in the past, however, the level of interrelatedness between nations and the number of people affected by failures in the system add up to an illness of epidemic proportions.

The 20th (American) century was a tumultuous period of global class and nation state warfare, and rapid growth of capital-intensive industrialization. Extremes in poverty, genocide, heroism and ingenuity were matched by the turbulence of the market and the peaks and valleys in the economy. In hindsight, the number of repeated attempts to loosen gold ties to currencies is remarkable during such a short period of time -- a frequency unmatched in history.

It is now the 21st (quite possibly not another American) century, and here we are again. The symptoms of our worldwide economic malady include:

- a massive trade imbalance; for the US, a staggering record current account deficit; for its trading partners, economies based on massive exports with no way to spend the wealth but to reinvest US dollars in US bonds and equities

- artificially, improperly valued currencies, particularly the undervalued yuan and the overvalued US Federal Reserve Note (FRN)

- a massive US government deficit and snowballing debt that may rival Third World nations within the decade

- a decrease in real value of the USD to less than a quarter since the final severance of all ties with gold only thirty odd years ago

- record increases in the money supply

- high unemployment in the US and Europe, weakening their roles as economic engines

This state of affairs is sufficient to drive the price of gold higher until collapse and/or remonitization occurs. But this tallies only a few of the weights on the balance in favor of gold. The supply of and demand for gold are significant factors that will have a force multiplier effect on the rise in price:

- reduced returns from mine production as the finite resource is extracted will ensure that the supply of gold is constantly diminishing with respect to growing populations.

- increased demand from acquisition of monetary gold by everyday citizens in China and the Muslim world (through the Islamic Gold Dinar)

- "overbooking" of physical gold through hedging and derivatives

The most intangible, but perhaps most important factor favoring the coming bull market is the increasing lack of faith in the capabilities and integrity of our leaders:

- US political responses to problems seem to be diversionary tactics such as spurious warmaking and unstimulating tax breaks; no real attempts at restoring manufacturing and trade balance are being made

- few tools remain to the Fed, and the control of interest rates is showing little positive effect

- a covert and unverifiable factor restraining the price of gold may be the intervention by the international banking system, perhaps in concert with attempts at hiding the true price of the rapidly diminishing crude oil stock that lubricates the world economic engine.

Although the US is displaying the most severe symptoms at present, no currency is safely isolated from its contagion. People around the world will increasingly turn to the only universal haven for their hard-earned savings as symptoms spread. Your current dollars may be nearly worthless in future years in comparison with the highly inflated future currency, but the value of your gold will remain relatively constant -- that is the straightforward, honest promise of gold.

Robert

(09/17/2003; 22:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108823)

MK: Bundesbank gold and the German people

According to MK, "It is the duty of the German Bundestag (if that's what they still call themselves -- the German legislative/parliamentary body) to look into this and understand the extent to which Welteke's action affects the German people. From there they need determine how much of the burden should be shouldered by the German people and how much should be borne by the stockholders of the private banks involved."

I assume the issue is the (alleged) loss of 1,700 tons of Bundesbank gold in "deep storage". Valued at $400/oz, this loss translates into a nominal loss of less than 22 billion US$ or $272 per German citizen. That sum although large, is
not large enough in order to raise a public outcry. It is
just 1/4 of what president Bush requested from congress in order to fight terrorism in Iraq. There wasn't much talk about this in congress, and for the same reason there will be little response in the German Bundestag in case the loss of gold is ever confirmed by the Bundesbank. The Germans are crazy enough to spend thousands of Dollars per capita every year on their vacations abroad. It is very unlikely that they will worry much about a loss of $270 per capita. The gold holding of the Bundesbank is only a small part of their total reserves. The largest position may well be their position in UST bonds. That position is valued at hundreds of billions of Dollars, roughly ten times the value of their gold position. If these bonds have to be ever written down, the loss to the German people would be many thousands Dollars per person. Now that loss could (and should) cause an outcry in the Bundestag.

Gonlyold

(09/17/2003; 23:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108824)

********New Bull Market In Gold? No********

I noticed that I didn't place the title in the title block. Don't know if that would disqualify my entry but I'll repost it anyway.

This increase in the POG is just a jitter. TPTB cannot let gold become a source of value or currency. In order to have control, they must keep fiat money and digital money as the currency of choice in the world. Of course fiat money and digital money lend themselves to be loaned to countries and facilitates keeping countries burdened with loans and in debt. Gold, on the other hand, would increase the chances of countries like Peru, Columbia, etc. into ending up in a strong financial position, due to the heavey gold deposits they have. And countries in a strong financial position would not be induced into becoming debt ridden and therefore would not be as easily controled by TPTB. TPTB cannot allow freedom from control.

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 00:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108825)

No Problemo, Sir Gonlyold ! <;-)

Gonlyold (09/17/03; 23:48:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 108824)
********New Bull Market In Gold? No********
I noticed that I didn't place the title in the title block. Don't know if that would disqualify my entry but I'll repost it anyway.
===
NAW ! I got you !
Me is the "easy going Wiz" !)
Right, Smeagol ?
<;-)

mikal

(09/18/2003; 00:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108826)

********A New Bull Market in gold? Yes********

It must be Magic with the help of Lady Luck bringing Hurricane Its-a-bull(Isabell) to close the District of Criminals. For at least one dog day of summer, the politicians get run out of office!
But imagine a house lofted far above a twister, spun off the great storm. It can be tricky avoiding the High-Tension wires on the way down, but the gold-hearted Dorothy and her loyal dog Toto didn't come from the Kansan Heartland to look for a broker.
No, from their vantage point various witches can do a vanishing act- the "Wicked Witch of the West" can do a wet melting act if she gets all wet and her sister the "Wicked Witch of the North" would rather not face any "down to earth" music, under Dorothy and Toto's spinning house!
They must "follow the yellow brick road" to find the Wizard of Oz and the precious slipper that leads to Kansas and help for her friends Scarecrow, the Lion and Tinman. Will they slip through to pull away the Wizard's curtain in the land of Ounce(Oz)?
Certainly the Hand is quicker than the eye. And there is so much dust blowing in eyes these days.
Yes there IS a pot of gold "somewhere over the rainbow" in every heart of gold and in the hands of those that give their all for the sake of humankind, honesty and honest money. And treasures have been known to be washed ashore after the highest tides.
May we be grateful for rainy day savings. And may our weather-beaten hands impart it a Midas touch like white magic from the Good Witch of the East!
Home is where the heart is. Say it to us again Dorothy: "There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home..."

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 00:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108827)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlkThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !! (at 00:20 Thursday 9/18/03)

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

PS: I caught your Essay entry too, Sir Mikal !

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 01:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108828)

Central Bank Gold.....

What are those goldreserves doing in all those CBs' vaults ? Do these goldreserves, "TODAY", have the same function/utility as they did pr� 1971 (yesterday) ???
What *exactly* did Duisenberg mean when he stated that CB-goldreserves are still an important monetairy asset ? Has the ECB "re-defined" Gold's function(s) ?

I'm not expecting any central banker popping up on CPM's forum to give us any answer...

Let us try to answer it ourselves : The greatest CB-goldreserves ever holded by the US treasury shrinked from 28,000 tonnes to presumably 8,125 tonnes for no other reason than having the globe accepted to go on the dollar-standard.

Are EMU CBs selling their goldreserves for the same reason of accepting the existing dollar-standard plus their own euro-standard and consequently replacing goldreserves (and dollars-?) with euroreserves ??? This "double" standard seems very unlikely to me. A double "paper" standard (reserve), $ and � compensating/balancing each other in their ever depreciating traject !?

What if the ECB's euro-gold-concept is being blocked by the fact that the overwhelming majority of Euro-Gold is "physically" stored in the US (dollarland) ??? Deeply stored in the West ? Same story for the goldreserves, physically stored in London !

In other words,...you Eurolanders can have a great idea about a freegold market in parallel with your euro,...but don't forget that most of your yellow stuff has been stored for safekeeping in US_UK vaults !!! You trusted us, the US AND the dollarreserve for so many decades and now suddenly you changed your mind,...and want to repatriate your yellow ?

Is this an idiotic thought ? TIA.

LeSin

(09/18/2003; 01:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108829)

Gold Storage in UK & USA in Trust for other Countries/Nations

Belgian - NO NOT AN IDIOTIC THOUGHT

We have all heard: "He who holds the gold makes the rules"

Other questions re gold not returned to rightful owners because of claims by the trustee/holder arise.

UK held huge quantities of Tzarist Russia gold- Did they ever return it?

US & UK held Nazi Germany gold. Did they ever return it?

After Nixon-USA 1971 refusal & default on gold ownership
and exchange?

History and experience would say that you may well be correct.

IMVHO - do not believe that the recent/past UK Gold Auctions were actually UK Gold Reserves, I suggest that they were offering "Confiscated" Russia or Nazi Germany Gold. 'Repatriated at a price' or 'rent' for 'deep storage'
To off-set other debts etc etc.

Cheers "S"

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 02:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108830)

IMF _ Dubai.....

There will be a lot of Gold-Talks for the following two main reasons on wich there is an outspoken general consensus, breaking into the open :

- 1/ The US$ is "hugely" over-valued !
- 2/ The devaluation of the US$ "must" happen * orderly * !

This must be the decodation of Welteke's "homeopathic".

Don't delay the acquisition of your personal goldreserve any longer !

Note that Schroder and Chirac are having a chat in Berlin !
Trans-Atlantic relationships (of all kinds) are on the table, again !

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(09/18/2003; 02:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108831)

@LeSin - foreign held gold

Afgahnistan (who would have thought!!!) as (90 tonnes??) in New York. Can you see that been returned to Kabul, to help those poor, unliberated Afghans?

What about all the IMF gold swap stuff, that's still recorded on foreign CB books, but as physically moved to London/New York.

Caradoc

(09/18/2003; 02:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108832)

AP press release on debt....

Just heard on radio: AP says that during the first four months of this year the US went into debt by 400 billion dollars which is twice the rate of last year.

Implications:
* US and its dollar will look that much worse for 26 September meeting in Dubai.
* Ditto for oil states considering whether to sell for Euro or dinar rather than dollar.
* With oil lessening demand for dollar (and with sound of printing press creating more of them!!) Asian decision-makers already pondering how much to shift away from dollar as reserve currency may speed up the extent to which they've alreadt stepped away from their role as buyer of last resort for federal securities. Next treasury auction should prove "interesting."

Since markets anticipate, today could well be the 10-dollar day that many have been looking for. So.....
* If you're stashing physical, your greenies will buy more if you call our host in the AM than the PM.
* If you're trading stock, stock options, or Comex contracts, you'll see an attempt to "paint the tape" during last 20 minutes. You'll be able to lessen this nonsense if you sell a fraction 30 minutes before the bell and immediately place a limit order to re-buy just a bit lower. If you wait until the last 10 or 15 minutes to place that order, they'll paint the tape and tell you that things were kind of hectic and they just didn't get around to processing your order.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

PS: Once again, this forum has the news before Drudge.

LeSin

(09/18/2003; 03:50:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108833)

Confiscated (Loot) Gold - Held in Deep Storage

On The Trail - Golden That Is
WAC

Exactly my point- that's the 'Trail' of Golden 'Thoughts, Auctions, and refusal of return/payment otherwise known as defaults in the National interest, for sure.

Cheers "S"

The Invisible Hand

(09/18/2003; 04:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108834)

There starts Dubai

http://money.inq7.net/breakingnews/view_breakingnews.php?yyyy=2003&mon=09ⅆ=18&file=18SNIPS

DUBAI -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday urged China and other Asian countries to allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar in order to spare the global economy "a serious problem" in the medium term.
...
Some day the US current account deficit, which now runs over five percent of GDP ... has to unwind and when it does there will be a sharp drop in the dollar."
"Now when the dollar falls the question is where is the surge of adjustment going to be."
"But clearly if the euro has to bear the lion's share of the adjustment of the dollar, that's going to create a lot more difficulties than if it's more evenly distributed, and the Asian currencies, not just China, allow themselves to appreciate significantly against the dollar."
"Bad enough that the global economy has been flying on one engine, but it's going to be a lot worse if it has to land on one wheel."
...

misetich

(09/18/2003; 04:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108835)

Saudis consider nuclear bomb

http://www.guardian.co.uk/saudi/story/0,11599,1044402,00.htmlSnip:

Saudi Arabia, in response to the current upheaval in the Middle East, has embarked on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons, the Guardian has learned.
..........................
A strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Riyadh sets out three options:

� To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent;

� To maintain or enter into an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would offer protection;

� To try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East.
..........................

They pointed to the Saudi worries about an Iranian prog-ramme and to the absence of any international pressure on Israel, which has an estimated 200 nuclear devices.
..................

Oman's ambassador to the IAEA, Salim al-Riyami, speaking on behalf of the Arab League, which represents Arab states, said it was time to get tough with Israel. "I think it's time to deal with this issue more substantively than before," he said.
****************
Misetich

Interesting "leak".

The Middle East has/will be "the hot spot". Whilst the "leaked article" must be taken with a grain of salt, as to the timing, validity etc... it does bring in to focus the estranged relationships between Saudis (Arabs) and the US.

The Saudis had been very vocifereous in the past, publicly (prior to 9/11) relating to the Palestinian issue. They had boldly taken the leadership in dealing with Washington, and proposed various "peace plans".

Since 9/11 there has been "very little" press coverage as to the stand on the Palestine issue.

Fact remains both Saudis and Venezuela the largest oil suppliers to the US have been tagged as "unfriendly to the US" in recent times, and it may explain the US invasion of Iraq who possesses the world 2nd largest oil reserves next to the Saudis.

It is also a know fact the Saudis and Russia are working on improving their relationships.

The geopolitical tensions stemming from this region, and the ongoing attempt to oust Chavez out of Venezuela, Taiwan/China issue will keep the pot hot boiling for the foreeable future, add the "strained" US vs "Old Europe", the discotentment of Muslim coutries, provides a background of fear and worries for major investors worlwide.

Major investors are the key to the valuation of gold as "they" effectively control it. CB's have a responsibility either granted or unilaterally extended by them, to "manage" their paper currencies. Gold is the arch enemy of "fiat" thus the ongoing CB's attack on gold. Interestingly enough the CB's have been losing their battle when a longer view is taken rather than the last "twenty years" of fiat bull, fuelled by an ever increasing level of debt.

Are debt levels accumulated in the last 20 years of "fiat bull market" sustainable?

Are the misalignments of surpluses/deficits sustainable?

Is US-Anglo axis able to maintain control of world finances?

Gold investment demand is increasing daily. There are many nervous investors worlwide, specially in the Middle East who need "protection" from a US $ devaluation, confiscation

"Interesting times" as per BB

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/18/2003; 04:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108836)

German, French Leaders Hold Talks on Iraq - German, French Leaders Hold Talks on Postwar Iraq at Berlin Summit Before Meeting With British

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030918_232.htmlSnip:

The leaders of France and Germany met Thursday for talks on postwar Iraq and ways to boost Europe's economy, ahead of a weekend meeting with their British counterpart.

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and President Jacques Chirac gathered at the Berlin chancellery for a regular German-French summit, accompanied by their foreign ministers and other key Cabinet members.
....................
On Thursday's agenda was a German-French initiative to boost growth and create jobs across the EU that they plan to present later this month to the 13 other members.

Included in the plan are major infrastructure projects such as the plans for the Galileo satellite, Europe's answer to the American global positioning system, or GPS, and expanding high-speed rail networks across national boundaries.
***************
Misetich

The "chess game" continues and it appears unlikely that relatinships with US going to ameliorate soon. The power struggle is on full press.

Germany, France, Italy are reportdely major holders of gold collectively surpassing gold allegedly held by the US.

Whilst the Italians through Berlusconi were "coerced" into providing support to the Anglos in Iraq it is highly unlikely they would "cave in" in making their gold available for sale/lease in a major way at least publicly. Thus the Washington Gold Agreement has an excellent chance of being extended with "minimum" gold being made available for yearly CB giftgiving.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Caradoc

(09/18/2003; 04:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108837)

Something strange

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA4LKBKQKD.htmlJust as with the story of a few months ago (California bank being closed by the feds), what was newsworthy at 1:30 in the morning was dropped from the 2:00 and 2:30 newscasts.

But it's even stranger than that: since the story of US having dropped a record 400 billion into debt during first four months of the year was introduced by "This just in from Associated Press...", It didn't bother me that it wasn't yet on the AP website whether under national or business or whatever. I just figured they send out electronic press releases and would be updating the website shortly.

No such luck. Anybody know whether AP has a history of quietly deleting things? Or, does anyone have a different source to confirm or contradict the story? Could be that some analyst forgot that the 87 billion (and however many other billions for Iraq) are being treated to Enron-like accounting so that they are "off-line" and don't count when figuring deficits.

Only thing I can find that comes close (see link above) is story with headline reading "IMF Forecasts Pickup in U.S. Economic Growth, but Budget Deficit Fed by War Costs a Concern." The dateline is Dubai, and it says total 2003 deficit is expected to be 455 billion for 2003 and 525 billion for 2004. Neither of those numbers corresponds to 400 billion worth during first four months of 2003.

Here are three snips which bode well for POG and may provide hints of what will be discudded in Dubai on the 26th.\:
* "Right now the United States is just charging ahead," said the IMF's chief economist, Kenneth Rogoff. "It has the best recovery money can buy. ... But this comes at a cost of mortgaging growth further down the road."
* Other risks to the U.S. economy stem from concerns about a "future housing bust" and volatility in the dollar's exchange rate, it said.
* Rogoff said the dollar will have to drop sharply when the U.S. current account deficit - the broadest measure of the trade deficit, one that includes goods, services and interest payments - starts to unwind later in the decade.

My take on all the above is that if our unborn or elementary-school-age descendants are to be tapped for 2003 and 2004 expenses plus interest, it would be smart to arrange for them to inherit some hard assets.

Our host's phome number is 800-869-5115.

Caradoc

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 05:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108838)

Global catch *22*

The IMF halves (!!!) the eurozone growth target, citing "strong" euro !
Schroeder and Chirac have the dollar-euro relation also on the agenda.

For how long can currencies float and adjust against each other without a universal standard to be measured against ?

What a crazy global situation it is, as where currencies, that have every reason to be strong, seek to devalue against the way over-valued dollar !!! Solely because *the* dollar IS *the* globe's currency.

How can one suggest that Chinese and Japanese economies must cool down by revalueing their currencies for the benefit of slowing economies of the countries that have an overvalued currency ? What a contradiction. Hard work is rewarded with a declining currency and less hard work is benefitting.

This was/is only possible without a gold-standard ! And in this ever globalizing world,...we are definitely running into big problems, without having another form of goldstandard (Freegold) as the ultimate arbiter on who is producing what kind of real values.

Freegold means that each nation (currency) can show its strength or weakness against the universal standard, Gold !
Much gold is a lot of wealth and less gold is weakness.

Chirac and Schroeder are worried about more and more manufacturing leaving the EU and heading East ! The main (old) structural problem for the dollar and euro as well !
That's why these currency battles (engineering) can't go on for any length of time.

China has only 400,000 people out of 1,2 Billion that are active in the coastal industrial process. Much more room for maneuvering overthere and less room for the $ and � to pick up.

This "globalizing" world must make a 180� turn from the present artificial competitive devaluations and compete to appreciate the most productive ones with a more valuable currency against Gold in a Freegold global society !

I think that this currency-races are the main reason why the POG has/must be/remain contained as to NOT show that so many currencies (mostly the dollar) are emperors without clothes !

More nations should have the possibility of determining the POG in their currency than the present goldpowers. This matches the principle of Freegold.

Gold should take the lead instead of the currency-blocks. Who is going to take the initiative ? Answer : possibly everyone, except the dollar-block, that will lose its supremacy, at once !

Further currency-management is simply muddling along up until the global economy is over-polarized and the inevitability of Freegold presents itself.

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 05:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108839)

@ Misetech

Great postings Sir !
Slowly but surely we come to the fundamental reason for the occupation and control of ME oilfields : Why has the globe's last, massive, cheap ME-oilreserves, NOT the right to participate in the global nuclear balance !!! Voila, that's it !
This Guardian article is an answer on the indignation (UN-Arab Lique) about Y. Arafat's sealed fate.

I would, of course, prefer the harmless gold-weapon instead of renewed nuclear threaths , 60 years after Hiroshima AND Nagasaki !

Do you remember I mentioned D. De Villepin (France) rushing to Saudi Arabia...!?

Something is going to move, folks ! US trade-deficit expected to rise to 6% > 7% in '04 ! US Elections 13 months away.

Q : Why must it so urgently be stated that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11 ??? What is so important about this, postfactum ?

All the above is putting more, additional strain on the dollar's further global acceptance and use. Reason the more to call the CPM people...NOW !

DummyANI

(09/18/2003; 05:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108840)

�l��"�"�� near-term gold-position

Final rally starts ?Recent book-keeping of Mitsui Gold-trade in TOCOM:
Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754 plus0 512 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810 plus 0056 380.8
Sep. 15 nil nil 376.9
Sep. 16 28,672 plus0862 375.6
Sep. 17 32,011 plus3339 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405 minus5606 377.3

Mitsui knows something(minus5606). Todays COMEX-gold is very interesting.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Cometose

(09/18/2003; 06:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108842)

Canadian DOllar

Looks like a launch pad this morning ....I wonder why ?????

Clink!

(09/18/2003; 07:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108843)

re usagold.com msg#: 108841

Nice to see norton's virus so effectively blocked !!
Keep up the good work.
C!

Druid

(09/18/2003; 08:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108844)

Belgian (9/18/03; 05:06:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 108838)

"I think that this currency-races are the main reason why the POG has/must be/remain contained as to NOT show that so many currencies (mostly the dollar) are emperors without clothes !"

Druid: Man! does this get to the heart of the GATA contention. Whithout effectively capping or bounding the price of gold, you have no room for all of the other financial engineering(alchemy) that must take place in lieu of a discontinuity in many if not all markets.

Spartacus

(09/18/2003; 08:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108845)

Duisenberg aims to turn FX focus from China to US

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030917/3/3e8ul.htmlFRANKFURT, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Worried about a possible dollar crisis that would snuff out euro zone economic recovery, the European Central Bank wants rich nations to put the brakes on pressuring China to loosen its currency peg.

At stake for ECB President Wim Duisenberg as he heads to meetings with world financial leaders in Dubai this weekend is keeping Europe out of recession -- and with it his legacy as first monetary leader of the $8 trillion euro zone economy. -

tyro

(09/18/2003; 08:45:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108846)

Belgian - Iraq

I also have been wondering why the sudden impetuous for the Bushies to clarify there is no link between Iraq and 9-ll.

heavy mettle

(09/18/2003; 09:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108847)

Thank you very much for the warm welcome MK et al.

Will try to post when time permits but working for paper to buy value takes up that time, which also unfortunately hinders the time spent thoroughly reading messages from valued posters. Hopefully events in the future will ease this situation.

Thanks again.

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 09:28:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108848)

Fears....

If on top of the detoriating global economy comes a "dis-orderly" dollar-devaluation...we risk to land in complete chaos. That's why it is suggested (through the media) to help the dollar stabilizing for another 6 to 9 months. But, by that time we might have to face a much higher ($)twin-deficit and the same slow global economy that couldn't be talked up, through further artificial US stockmarket (Grasso) support !

It is going to become a tuff time for the eurozone as to show that it can escape from the looming dollar-disaster and give evidence that the EMU and its euro diserve the confidence (stability) that it claims. That's what France and Germany try to achieve in Berlin, together with protection from the effects of a devaluating dollar.

Tony joins them on saturday and will try to divert the idea of the establishment of an old-europ army, necessary to give more credibility to the euro.

The Bush statement on Iraq not being involved with 9/11 was probably necessary to shift that blaim to Saudi Arabia at the appropiate time . If and when the euro would be promoted as an oil-currency (gold-associated) and escape from the effects of the dollar devaluation ?

In other words,...The ME must come under full dollar control before it (ME) has nuclear capability as to become more independant in its currency ($-�) choice (cfr. Guardian article) !? Or Israel should abandon his existing nuclear capacity, wich seems very unrealistic (impossible)imo.

Can we say that the globe is on a general currency (power)struggle, whilst the global economy detoriates further ?

Rimh

(09/18/2003; 10:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108849)

******The New Bull Market in Gold. Yes!!******

Or perhaps more correctly, a proper re-valuation of gold in the face of "The New Bear Market in Global Currency Valuations". It seems a great many people have forgotten the meaning of the word "precious", preferring to look to other vehicles of exchange for savings/wealth accumulation. This is exactly what the fiat masters desired in order to control the masses and amass their own fortunes, primarily on the backs of the productive sector.

But a new day is dawning, and in fact has dawned on those few who understand what's precious, what holds value, what frees us. It has been our good fortune to be able to acquire precious metals at reduced fiat valuation as we watch the slow-motion destruction of currencies around the globe. Argentina gave us a glimpse of a rapid currency re-valuation, and the havoc that caused for it's citizens. Perhaps we shall be lucky enough to avoid their fate, perhaps not. Presumably by the time this "New Bull Market in Gold" has run its course there will be more who understand that gold and silver are precious, and will hold on to it regardless of its fiat valuation.

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/18/2003; 10:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108850)

Whatever crop you've sown, we can help you reap gold!!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Nicely priced -- for a bin-bursting take-home harvest!

J-Bullion

(09/18/2003; 10:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108851)

$$$$$371.00$$$$$

The usagold message board is very important place for people to gain knowledge of the coming economic times. The more people who can be saved from catastrophe means that there will be more people around to help others. The site is also important to help in my sanity. It's nice to know that there are other people out there who see the world the way I do and not through the lies and deceit of the govt. Plus, I can proudly know that I am not the most bearish person around...Black Blade beats me hands down.

Clink!

(09/18/2003; 10:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108852)

Hedonic Magic

http://www.marketwise.com/MW_WiseG/BBF_Archive/20030917.htmSnip :-

"Not too many investors are familiar with the concept of hedonic pricing, as it's an obscure term," writes Nichols. "But government statisticians sure know all about it. Essentially, hedonic pricing is the government's way to conjure up completely fictitious growth numbers, as needed. Last quarter actual spending on fixed investments in computers grew by $6.3 billion -- that's the actual dollar amount of growth. Yet the government statisticians imputed this $6.3 billion number -- through what's called �hedonic pricing� or �hedonic indexing� -- to mean that US fixed investments in computer equipment actually rose $38.4 billion during the quarter. So this bigger number is the one they put into the GDP mix, and it just so happened to account for about 40% of reported overall GDP growth.

Arthur Anderson Techniques

"These statisticians figured -- in their own Enron/Arthur Andersen kind of way -- that an increase of $6 billion in computer spending actually produced a net growth effect of $38 billion on the economy, because of increases in computer speed, better software, enhanced productivity, etc. But only $6.3 billion of the $38.4 billion in growth that ended up in the report is real. The rest is just a fantasy."

Clink : Hedonics have been discussed here before, but I thought this was an especially good example as it includes both the real and imputed numbers. I had previously thought that the hedonics accounted for a fraction of the final number - I didn't realize it multiplied them by 6 ! I had a thought - the current account deficit is around the 5% mark at the moment. But 5% of what ? And what is the betting that, as most of the computer equipment is imported, the figure of $6.3B is used for these imports rather than $38.4B ?

Mr Gresham

(09/18/2003; 10:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108853)

Deficits

(I try not to post w/o thoroughly reading first, but, sometimes just off top of head is all I can manage)

We went into anti-terror/Iraq situation speculating on control of oil fields and pipelines. That is a longterm peakoil question yet to prove its payback.

But the explosion of National Debt for the fighting of -- as yet -- a TINY, TINY guerilla conflict. So out of all logical proportion. You have to assume either idiocy, or deliberate bankrupting of USG and its financial obligations.

Does somebody have a major short on T-bonds, with the proceeds safely parked in our favorite metal? Wouldn't surprise...

TownCrier

(09/18/2003; 10:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108854)

Reuters on gold paints this view today for the masses to dwell on

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030918/markets_precious_comex_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - COMEX gold was challenging the $380 level early Thursday, rising toward last week's 7-month high...

"It's back on the march again. We're seeing fund buying, seeing good physical buying and it's still a bull market," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank.

"The stars have already lined up for the gold market," he continued. "It is a dollar diversification that we're seeing. Gold has replaced the U.S. dollar as the safe haven."

-------(from article at url)-------

""Gold has replaced the U.S. dollar as the safe haven.""

Have you?

R.

(09/18/2003; 11:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108855)

Belgian msg#: 108828 "What if the ECB's euro-gold-concept is being blocked by the fact that

the overwhelming majority of Euro-Gold is "physically" stored in the US (dollarland) ??? Deeply stored in the West ? Same story for the goldreserves, physically stored in London !" you ask�

Mamma mia!! Overwhelming majority of gold you say? Mamma mia!!!

What about the Saudis and the Chinese? Where do they hold their gold? It looks as though it would take a lot of time to sort out this mess??

TownCrier

(09/18/2003; 11:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108856)

Despite Japanese efforts to contrary, dollar falls to 2-1/2 year lows against yen

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030918/markets_forex_dollar_yen_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to 2-1/2-year lows below the key level of 115.00 yen Thursday as traders continued to test the willingness of the Bank of Japan to undertake yen-weakening interventions [which have been done] ... in order to protect the competitiveness of Japanese exporters.

-----(from url)-------

Seek gold. Mother nature needs not play it down due to any international balance of trade issues. The perfect universal savings asset.

R.

Rimh

(09/18/2003; 11:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108857)

$$$$$$ 385.5 $$$$$$

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an important resource because it is the best place that one can find significant pieces of news and info from around trhe globe, with appropriate commentary, on global economics, politics, etc. and how it is really affecting us. As a first time poster, I must confess I have been lurking since around the Washington agreement, having been directed here by an associate to read the "gold for oil" files. I have since come to appreciate the high caliber of knights and ladies who post here, and of course the focus on gold, with which I have been enamoured with for many years.

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 11:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108858)

WELCOME 1st Time Poster, Sir Rimh !!

Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857)
===
Happy to see you at the TABLEROUND
<;-)

RobotGuy

(09/18/2003; 11:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108859)

Hey Kids!!

Been awhile for me, I've been up and down in and out with my life, and haven't had internet access for awhile. Good to see the old FORUM is still kickin' strong.
Can you believe they're ('they' being the government controlled media) still trying to convince us that finally the economy is ready to rock and roll? Can you count on twenty nine hands the number of times you've heard that in the past three years?
No,.. but really, this time we mean it, no,.. honest!

Phyeah Hwright!

Cheers!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy

alkahulik

(09/18/2003; 11:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108860)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

A good definition of a market bottom is when nobody wants it and the price is extremely undervalued. $252 was that price. The fact that gold is now at $380, and we have broken above the major 21 year downtrend, and yet the average person is still not interested in purchasing makes a compelling argument for a new bull market in gold. On the other hand, there are many numerous fundamentals supporting gold including a weak dollar, lots of debt and fraud, and mainly it appears that a world wide "wealth shift" is occurring from west to east. I think this last factor will dampen central bank selling.

The top in this gold bull will not occur until the "greed factor" kicks in. When my associates start buying gold coins and stocks I will be selling. This hasn't started happening!!

alkahulik

(09/18/2003; 11:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108861)

$$$$$$ 382.00 $$$$$$

$$$$$$ 382.00 $$$$$$
If the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
Were not to be here no more
The story of gold
Could never be told
And life would be just a bore

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 11:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108862)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !! (at 11:45 Thursday 9/18/03)

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !
TICK TOCK !!!

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 11:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108863)

Not to Worry !

alkahulik (9/18/03; 11:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108861)
$$$$$$ 382.00 $$$$$$
===
I caught that one that sneaked in while I was typing Sir Alkahulik !!
(I type VERY SLOWLY !)
<;-)

RobotGuy

(09/18/2003; 11:53:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108864)

$$$$$382.20$$$$$

Mighty Oaken Table Of Yore
I will tell you exactly why this mighty table is profoundly precious. Sure, it is a great place to learn many things related to precious metals. And most definitely it is a fabulous forum to see a variety of viewpoints. It might also be considered for its ability to suggest methods or directions for financial gain. There is however, one very key property that has kept me returning to this forum for years, and that is the great sense of family that resides herein. We will always have sibling rivalry, and small dysfunctional quirks like any family, but when the rest of the world laughs at you for loving gold, you can always turn to your family for comfort.

Cheers Brothers and Sisters of the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

Operative

(09/18/2003; 12:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108865)

What Snow in Beijing means for gold

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EI19Ad01.htmlSnip:

What Snow in Beijing means for gold

US Treasury Secretary John Snow visited Beijing recently to raise the yuan-revaluation issue with China's senior leadership. While the media focus was on currency values and unfair trade advantages, what is sometimes overlooked is the potential implications it has for gold.

China already enjoys, at 40 percent, one of the highest savings rates in the world. The closer we get to revaluation, the more US dollar savings will be converted into gold.

In order to pave the way, the PBC last year relinquished its monopoly on imports and exports of gold, the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established, and many Chinese commercial banks are planning to launch personal-gold-investment businesses.

The way forward for China's central bank and savers in the coming years is, surely, to diversify out of their huge dollar holdings and move to back its currency by gold as it heads slowly but surely toward convertibility on the capital account.

End

Comment: The shot fired, but not heard, around the world.
1 Billion "savers" in China buying/investing/saving in gold.
A Gold Bull Market? I think gold will soon redefine what a "bull market" truly is.

Operative

(09/18/2003; 13:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108866)

Barrick asks court to reconsider gold trial ruling

http://reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=usFundsNews&storyID=3469193

Barrick asks court to reconsider gold trial ruling
Reuters, 09.18.03, 1:12 PM ET
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. has asked a U.S. court to reconsider its ruling to allow a case accusing it of manipulating the gold price to go to trial and instead to dismiss the action.

In documents obtained on Thursday, Toronto-based Barrick asked a Louisiana district court judge to rethink her ruling on Sept. 3 giving the go-ahead to an antitrust case against the world's No. 3 gold producer.

At the time of her ruling, Judge Helen Berrigan of the Eastern District Court of Louisiana gave Barrick 10 days to appeal her decision. Barrick's "motion for reconsideration" will be heard on Oct. 15.

End

Comment: While Barrick (named as defendant with JP Morgan) calls the lawsuit, "utterly ridiculous", it would appear they need to coordinate comments to the interantional news media with JP. Also in the news today is an article by JP Morgan calling for lower gold prices if Central Banks begin selling. Snip:

Big rise in bank sales would hurt gold price-JP Morgan
Thu September 18, 2003 03:30 AM ET
By James Regan
European central banks hold about 14,000 tonnes of gold in their reserves, or about half the gold owned by the world's central banks.
The pact helped stabilise the price of gold on world markets

Full article at: http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3465160≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets

It would appear if Blanchard's legal eagles can even loosely tie JP Morgan and or Barrick to Central banking, the guilt is now admitted. Course, I am just a farm boy and not an attorney.

Gondolin

(09/18/2003; 13:03:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108867)

Of Hobbits...

Goldenpeace, laure melda

Glad u enjoyed, was writing from memory long ago, have not read those works for many a year. The correlations of what Tolkien envisaged and we are seeing today are quite scary. Contemporaries all believed Tolkiens writing was an image of the conflict in Europe pre and during WW2 when only Britain still stood against the Axis. Maybe he saw the bigger picture.

laure melda, you indeed filled a few of the gaps in my story that I omitted to avoid writing a whole book (and breach of copyright by Unwin & Co).

Waiting most (im)patiently for Return of the King. -Could December be the time the King (GOLD!) returns???? just to coincide nicely with the movie release...

alkahulik

(09/18/2003; 13:23:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108868)

*** Sept 18th, 2003 - News that might happen***

Official sources indicate that as a sign of the times, the US Treasury has decided, with the effect of alleviating ballooning printing expenses, that it should outsource printing of smaller currency denoninations include $1, $5, $10 and $20 to an undisclosed foreign nation. A Treasury offical was quoted yesterday stating "The outsourcing of denominational printing will alliviate expenses in the excess of $150 million dollars by eliminating over a 1000 jobs. It's wonderful, in fact the new foreign personnel printing the currency might be allowed to take a small percentage home at the end of the week rather than receiving a paycheck". It is believed that Americans in general will sanction the plan. Who needs printing jobs, Americans should only be involved with high tech, special projects. Dissidents of the plan stated "With all the currency that needs to be printed in the coming years, think of all the additional jobs that might be lost, what a shame".

Operative

(09/18/2003; 13:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108869)

China Not Buying the "Snow job"

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAHG4G5RKD.htmlChina's Top Central Banker Indicates Currency Controls Will Stay - for Now

HONG KONG (AP) - China's top central banker on Thursday indicated that the country's currency controls will stay for now, in keeping with the communist government's gradual approach to capitalist reforms.
"There is no strong reason to have sudden changes" in the exchange rate policy, said Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China.
The top central banker said China's position on currency controls was consistent with the step-by-step liberalization of its centrally planned economy.
He said the economies of the former Soviet Union and eastern bloc had suffered by introducing market reforms too quickly.

Comment: Somehow I get the impression that China is licking it's lips at the thought of more Central Bank gold sales.

silver star

(09/18/2003; 13:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108870)

*************NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD? MAYBE... **************

Until gold rises above $450 and silver above $8 it's a game of pure speculation. The technical aspect of the past several years' rally is looking strong, but I'm still waiting for an upside confirmation.

The fundamentals pushing a longterm PM bull market are shaping into a potential event of historical proportions. A worldwide currency crisis may be in the making which could cause a mass exodus from cash and equities into the safety of precious metals. Hang on to your hat if this happens, and you thought the internet craze was something?

Speculation without accumulation is a gamble that few of us goldbugs and silverfish that share this forum are willing to let pass. Staying out of the physical until after the metals start smoking could cost a bundle. Paper that's not needed now and converted to metal at existing prices is a safe longterm bet either way the coin tips. I'll wait till it stops spinning before calling a new bull market, but my pockets clink while I wait!

Gandalf the White

(09/18/2003; 14:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108871)

POG CONTEST --- "King of the Hill"

I, wish to advise you all, that on Thursday 9/18/03, with the COMEX GC3Z Settlement of $377.7 --- the "KING of the HILL" is -- Sir Dry Washer, AGAIN ! (FOR the Fourth day in a row !)

WOWSERS !!
<;-)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/18/2003; 14:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108872)

Page Update!

CoBra(too)

(09/18/2003; 14:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108873)

Wowsers -

Gandy - let's leave the 377' behind and look across the crests ... OK, I'll settle for a 5th. wave - including dry washing and pressing - shirts, skirts until it hurts ... and buy some ... gold ... cb2

(09/18/2003; 14:30:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108874)

Operative: The Coming Monetary Crisis and What It Means to Those Looking to Acquire Gold

A quick thought on JP Morgan's concern that a "big rise in bank sales would hurt gold":

Let me put JP's mind at rest on that issue. They need not be so concerned in that the whole reason for the agreement on gold in the first place was to limit sales and leases so as not to injure the price. The agreement would not exist except for that as a presupposition, so I wouldn't be overly concerned with a "big increase." That's why Mr. Welteke uses gentle, fluffy words like 'homeopathic' when describing Bundesbank's interest, and that's why he has a limited horizon on this.

As a friend just pointed out to me as well, we are still a year away from the conclusion of the current agreement, so anything done now will not have an effect for some time to come. A lot of water will go under the bridge between now and the next agreement's start date. I believe it would be more fruitful for all of us to focus more on the dollar concerns. With words like "dollar crisis" being thrown around casually by the likes of Wim Duisenberg I wouldn't spend much time worrying about the text of the next Washington Agreement. Any gold allocated in that respect will disappear into the growing black hole of demand with not so much as whisper of protest from the market.

In fact, let me take one step further. In my view, we are on the doorstep of a major worldwide monetary crisis involving all the major currencies with the dollar at the epicenter, and that is precisely what is being discussed in Dubai as you read these words. If that monetary crisis does develop, gold will become a target asset for people all over the world. We are advising our clients not to wait for price inflection points and trend breaks as incentives to buy gold. Buy instead when the capital is available on the understanding that all is not well in the world monetary system and it's beginning to appear that there's not much that world leaders can or will do to turn it around -- the March of Folly as someone pointed out here recently.

Black Blade

(09/18/2003; 14:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108875)

From The Mailbag

Snippit courtesy of the Daily Reckoning.

We caught up with Lord Rees-Mogg, former editor of the Times of London and now a contributing editor to the Daily Reckoning, at the Garrick Club. "Unsustainable," was his conclusion. Speaking of the twin deficits - the U.S. current account and federal, each about $500 billion - his lordship had this to say: "They just can't continue running deficits of that magnitude. The whole thing has to blow up someday. We don't know exactly how or exactly when. But we do know how to protect ourselves - with gold."

Black Blade: About says it all. Today's IMF report on the dollar was especially bearish while extremely bullish on gold. Yet the equities markets surged inflating another bubble on light volume even as insiders are bailing out. The Lemmings are just stumbling about blindly. Meanwhile, today's DMR could have been several pages but hopefully the point got across without much confusion. The precious metals look especially god as a "perfect storm" brews.

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 14:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108876)

@ge

Indeed, mama mia ! Do you remember Iran repatriating its Gold from London !?
The gold-trucks (?) confiscated in Iraq. And the mysterious reason why the Swiss did not want to continue to sell their one tonne a day through BIS and later on, the Swiss parlementary question on the safety of Swiss gold in fort Knox.
The Chinese will certainly NOT put their golden eggs on AngloAmerican soil. Saudi Arabia (and othe ME-states) must certainly (without any doubt) have goldreserves in the US AND UK ! But London will have to re-connect with Euroland sooner or later, with or without Tony !

If or when it would one day turn out that there would exist threaths (rumors) of confiscation of state goldreserves,...that would cause a major confidence shock.
I'm not excluding that this could happen if for instance the euro would declare war on the dollar. Who knows if the Saudi Goldreserves stored in the US aren't already used as a mean of coercion to co-operate further with the dollar-system. Oil for dollars (and not for euro) or you don't see your gold back ???

Find out what happened during WWII with the many gold-shipments during that period. And what if the gold sold (?) by EMU is the one that is physically stored in the US ? I find it very strange that Welteke's gold-statements often go through Bloomberg !?

This could escalate if the trans Atlantic confidence crisis
rises/persists.

MarkeTalk

(09/18/2003; 15:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108877)

Financial Times article on Gold

I don't think anyone here on th forum has mentioned the gold article which appears in today's edition of The Financial Times on about page 16. Even the front page masthead had a reference to the article, making sure that gold bugs and financial types would not miss it. The gist of the article is that the time has come for all tangible commodities, which should see considerable price increases. Of course, bearish views on gold and commodities in general were also considered.

I have to always ask myself why such an article as this appears at this time. Is it because gold is truly breaking out that it is politically correct to recommend it now? Is it because the inflation monster is on the loose that even an establishment newspaper, such as Financial Times, does not want to miss alerting its readers to a great investment? Whatever the reason, this article is very timely.

Shanti

(09/18/2003; 15:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108878)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

G OLD, Ther's too little for too many,
O IL dollars and fiat (reserve) currency will seek other altenatives,
L urking on this forum with wise brains is heading in one direction,
D eflation is the talk, INFLATION is the reality.

As the above are facts, the factor TIME is the only question left.
We will see on the popping leaves when the spring is near.
Be prepared.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti.

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 15:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108879)

@LeSin

I think that a lot of the former Russian goldstocks found their way to the US through the assasinated Sasafras in Monaco and his bank. The Kuwaiti 80 tonnes were almost certainly stored in London, ready to be of helpful use for the dollar-defense. The Kuwaitis must certainly have substantial private goldstashes on American soil and probably already sold for delivered American services.
Forgot to mention that imo, most probably, a lot of Saudi gold is attached to private ownership and not so much state ownership.

And as A/FOA already mentioned : How much private gold (physical holdings) has already been lured into the gold manipulation sheme by the dollar, and lost for ever for these wealthy individuals, wanting to serve the dollar-master ?

If the POG keeps on rising (what I suspect, very strongly) these once wealthy private goldholders will become very disappointed with their lost physical and stashes of devaluating dollars.

If gold is in its process of being increasingly re-percepted as the dollar's antithesis, AGAIN...we have lift off for the long awaited massive revaluation of Gold and flying much higher than the justified devaluation of the dollar. In other words, the final decoupling of Gold and dollar. The (stubborn) Chinese must know that their policies must inevitably lead to such a denouement. That's why they liberalized Gold even before their whole continent has been fully liberalized !!!

Once one has enough physical at hand,...the dollar devaluation matters little !

Belgian

(09/18/2003; 16:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108880)

@Market Talk

I think it is political correct to state that the dollar is weakening and that therefor all dollar-denominated tangibles will rise-adjust in dollarprice. That seems a very neutral observation/communication to me. But,...how political correct is it-would it be, to state that the dollar is in the midst of a very serious crisis and that the dollar-system risks to become questioned !?

The tone on CNBC-Europ is much more "alarming" (certainly today) than what the Anglo-American financial media are communicating for their specific Anglophile public.
Gold is much less a taboo in Euroland than it is in the US.

I do repeat that there is a general consensus on the dollar weakening further to 1,25 > 1,40 dollar on the euro. Evidence of the acceptance of this evolvement and the political correctness. But you will NOT read in the FT that the dollar (reserve) reached/is heading to, the end of its lifetime. POG projection of 420-450$/oz are common already for some time. Simply a matter of pr�-emptive de-dramatization of the constructed/expected dollar-decline.
Dollar-devaluation already sounds more dramatic !

Most important about all these exchange rate adjustments in the pipeline will be the effects of "price-inflation", globally !!! And will the decline in dollar exchange rate be of any help to turn the US' twin deficits ??? And can the outstanding POG derivatives cope with a rising POG target of 420+$ ?

A POO higher than 34$ is surpassing the painlevel (for the dollarblock) as tested a year ago.
How will dollar-holders react with a declining dollar against the euro ? With the building of more euro-reserves and inducing a vicious cycle of further dollar-decline getting out of control ?

All media are followers and not fore-runners ! Media mostly report on what's already history. POG already rose 50% (250$ > 380$) !!!
Why mention Gold for its next little run of 380$ > 420$ (10%) ?

The financial media do serve/promote the financial businesses and are not explicitely concerned about one's individual financial well being/safety !!!

I have given up on the FT as the financial bible, already a long time ago !

misetich

(09/18/2003; 16:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108881)

Eichel urges U.S. to cut twin deficits-paper

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=WAZJFDFYCTR0CCRBAELCFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3469478Snip:

BERLIN, Sept 18 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Hans Eichel echoed the International Monetary Fund on Thursday, urging the U.S. to cut its record current account and budget deficits which he said posed a long-term threat to world growth.
"American budgetary policy represents an enormous economic boost that has a positive effect on the world economy," he said in an interview with the Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung.

"But in the longer term, deficits of this scale would weigh on the global economy. So in the medium term, there should be budget consolidation," he said.

The IMF earlier warned that the twin U.S. deficits posed a lurking threat to signs of a nascent global economic recovery.
*********************
Misetich

During the "stock bull market of 95-2000" Europe and Japan kept on getting lectured by Rubin & Co - The hangover effect of 'this irrational exhuberance period' has shown up several years later. And its only the beginning.

Bush and his neo-cons advisors have accelarated the budget deficit multifold with their obsession of totalitarianism, being masked as the "war against terror".

It appears more with each passing day, the measures taken by the Anglo axis met with stiff resistance by the majority of the world - is a desperation move to salvage and maintain their global US $ hemogeny.
Many empires have fallen as they have attempted to reach too far.

Is Iraq Bush's Waterloo?

Eichel, Duisenberg, IMF are vocalizing publicly and lecturing the US on fiscal responsibilities. To no avail as most are still in denial and not willing to accept the inevitable.

US $ is in for a hard landing.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

DryWasher

(09/18/2003; 16:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108882)

WOWSERS!

@ Gandalf the White (usagold.com msg#: 108871).
You wrote "---COMEX GC3Z Settlement of $377.7 --- the "KING of the HILL" is -- Sir Dry Washer, AGAIN ! (FOR the Fourth day in a row !) WOWSERS !!".

DryWasher: It was just a seat of the pants wild guess, and let me assure you that their is absolutely no wizardry at all involved. HONESTLY! REALLY!

@ CoBra(too) (usagold.com msg#: 108873).
You Wrote "---let's leave the 377' behind and look across the crests ...---".

DryWasher: You bet, starting next Tuesday morning bright and early. (BIG GRIN).

@ ALL:
Speaking of "WOWSERS" todays DMR and MK's warning (msg#: 108874) sure fit that description, and are right on target in my opinion. Great posts from all around this great table today.

Paper Avalanche

(09/18/2003; 16:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108883)

Gold doesn't need the services of a PR firm....

http://www.adage.com/news.cms?newsId=38718It is quite a task these days to "sell" paper money it seems.

PA

(09/18/2003; 16:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108884)

Black Blade / JW

From today's DMR:

"The BLS has repeatedly been faking the CPI and PPI numbers for political reasons and this has led to some confusion for Wall Street economists and Washington DC politicians. To the man and woman on Main Street America, prices are going through the roof for the 'unimportant things' like health care, energy, food, housing, etc. while wages are stagnating and job losses rise and that is killing the U.S. economy."

MK: I read the other day that the consumer price numbers were even better once food and energy were excluded. A thought occurred to me and I am surprised that the BLS hasn't thought of this: Why not exclude everything from the CPI numbers? The inflation rate would then be zero -- erased from the economy forever with a single, efficient stroke of the bureaucratic pen. The nation would be in the best shape it has ever been from an inflation point of view, and erosion in the purchasing power of the dollar -- now 21� in 1970 dollars -- would be stopped in its tracks. This is an idea whose time has come. The nation's television reporters could come on the screen and say something like "The consumer price report was issued by the Labor Department today and for the 43rd month in a row inflation registered zero."

P.S. We wouldn't have to worry about those bothersome cola payments either.

Druid

(09/18/2003; 16:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108885)

http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20030804-022903-7609r.htm

Its turning up everywhereDruid: Gold anyone?

Druid

(09/18/2003; 17:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108886)

Doh!

http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20030804-022903-7609r.htmSaddam's gold discovered in truck

By Pamela Hess
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

HILLAH, Iraq, Aug. 4 (UPI) -- A routine Iraqi traffic stop has turned up what may be $90 million in gold bars in this town just over 50 miles south of Baghdad.

Druid: Let me try this again.

mikal

(09/18/2003; 17:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108887)

Preview of IMF gathering, Gold, Currencies, Economy all appreciated!

Thanks all! After all the posted comments and links here and at other gold forums, I am actually looking forward to an IMF meeting!
Good to hear from Market Talk and MK as always.
Where is the third arm of the USAGOLD triumvirate, Town Crier? Well he deserves a break after all he posted yesterday.
As for the IMF meetings, so many others have been anticipating this for so long, that I see the press has dutifully taken advantage of this interest, well in advance of the actual event! So much for intrigue!
Though decidedly "too little too late", dollar adjustments are welcome and necessary. And IMO inadequate to prevent default on official debt, a derivatives debacle or major structural readjustment at some point- largely because of what Black Blade has described as unserviceable(unpayable) U.S. government debt and implying a loss of reserve status and a degree of sovereignty and financial independence. (Were it not for the sometimes tangled interdependence of nations and the proliferation of weapons and multinational corporations, perhaps the U.S. would be subject to reparations payments to other nations.)
While declaring final victory would be premature, vindication of gold is progressing one small step at a time.

Toolie

(09/18/2003; 17:05:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108888)

#108883

Paper Avalanche said- Gold doesn't need the services of a PR firm....

The last two changes in the $20 bill didn't either. Hmmm.

Operative

(09/18/2003; 17:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108889)

@ MK, Thank You

Thank you for elaborating on my earlier post in regards to the JP Morgan press release. My slash/dash/paste style of posting here at the castle often does not convey the whole story. I also read the JP Morgan story probably much differant than JP wants me to. It is my belief that JP issues these stories every time gold prices begin to build a base or make a short run to the upside. Does JP Morgan really, really, care about us gold investors, or is this yet another one of thier propoganda releases attempting to possibly dissuade folks from purchasing gold. (price might go down....) Thier timing of these stories has been highly suspect and often include the normal disinformation that goes with it, ie; ususally stories of 'lost' gold being found, sunken ships with gold cargo being discovered/raised, and the compliment of talking heads/experts on CNBC who dutifully dismiss any climbing action of gold price to speculation/short lived gains. In short, these types of stories that once sent a chill down my back as a commodity/stock trader now only serve to tell me the price is going higher, and that collars are being loosened in certain places as the heat of higher gold prices causes them to sweat. After all, is JP Morgan and thier likes really, truly, concerned about my fiscal status, or (more likely) are they having problems with the trillions in derivitives/headges that they carry on the books? Personally, I would like to see the central banks pile up all thier gold (assuming they actually have possession of such) and hold one large open market garage sale. Sell it all!. The price of gold might, repeat, might, go down 10 per cent for about a day. Then what? With no more 'threats' of bank gold sales to hang over the public/investors heads where would the price go??
With no wizard,(not to be confused with our own True Wizard)behind the screen to manipulate prices what would happen?
My guess would be a much more realistic price for each golden ounce, say around 3,000 for starters. Take out the paper gold and 30,000 would be more likely.

Since my readings and therefore education obtained here at the castle I have learned enough to 'follow in the footprints' of giants. I have learned to accumlate physical holdings vs paper promises. Oh, I still keep some play fiat in futures and a little in some gold stocks for fun and it helps me pay attention. (I really dont like all this work of trying to keep up with markets, but by having a "stake" it forces me to try and keep current). But I have also learned how to sleep well at night no matter what news the day may bring because of having physical near at hand. This achievment is in part largely due to the knowledge gained at USAGOLD.

Good night, and thanks.

Druid

(09/18/2003; 17:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108890)

IMF warns of house price collapse

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=375046§ion=financeDUBAI (Reuters) - Soaring house prices are in danger of collapse in countries like the UK and U.S. once interest rates rise on better growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Druid: "...once interest rates rise on better growth prospects,..." This just drives me totally freaking nuts whenever I read it in print or hear it on the parrot box. We would need another generation of productivity growth to exceed any paper growth before this type of supposed inflation would justify any rising of interest rates. IMF drones, what are we going to grow that we haven't grown in abundant supply already? The only major growth sector here at home and abroad far exceeding every other sector is that of the money supply. However, there is one HUGE growth area here at home that we could migrate too and that would be toward an economic model of Capitalism and free markets. This would actually be bigger then indoor plumbing. Where do they find these people?

Toolie

(09/18/2003; 18:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108891)

$$$$$376.0$$$$$

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource because of the hope it offers.

I came to this table 1 year ago, seeking to resolve these contradictions in my mind. How can a country prosper by producing little and consuming much? How is it in my country's interest to dislocate producers into the service economy? It has taken a good deal of time to digest the information at that allows me to come to the simple conclusion that was always there, but never spelled out in a way that I understood. Global free trade enables global dollar dependency.

The U.S. government/federal reserve wants the same power over the globe as it has over its "citizens". It wants the power that Thomas Jefferson warned us to never give it when he said "If the American people ever allow the banking system to control their money, first by inflation, then by deflation; their children will one day wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." When our economy inflates we take the product of foreign labor, then through deflation, we take away the value of the dollars they earned. Through this process we tax the world. Give the U.S. any trouble and you will lose all that you have earned. It is absolute power! Asia is doing exactly as desired; by holding our dollars, we hold their "wealth" hostage. We are being made a nation of thieves.

Understanding that much of our economic woes result from the game of "chicken" being played between the Fed and other central banks. The U.S./Fed offering underdeveloped nations an opportunity to prosper, while risking only our ability to manufacture. The underdeveloped nations offering "taxable", cheap labor while risking their sovereignty. Seeing world events within this context. I derive hope from: A stubborn Euro, that offers a more stable, less taxing wealth reserve. A Group of South American nations that recognize the nature of this game and organize a trading block to the "bargain for a better deal". A Middle East and Asia that begin to seek a fair arbiter for trade, one that is not inherently a liability. Knowing that the game will have an end when the "U.S. dollar holding tax" becomes too great a burden. I see currency crumble before gold and know what it means.

Dollar Bill

(09/18/2003; 18:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108892)

*>*.............-l-

August 29th 2003, Greenspan said:

"Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape... Our problem is not the complexity of our models but the far greater complexity of a world economy whose underlying linkages appear to be in a continual state of flux."

Socrates964

(09/18/2003; 19:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108893)

ESSAY COMPETITION

NO!

Readers of this forum will know that I am a great fan of high-probability patterns based on Fibonacci ratios, simply because they either leap out of a chart or they don��t.

The method as taught to me also gives a clear and precise criterion for determining when a retracement from a low shifts into a primary bull market: when it exceeds 78.6% (actually 1/�"��, where �� is (1 + �"5)/2) of the previous downtrend.

On this basis, we are not even close to retracing the primary trend down from the 1980 high of $850, and would have to breach the $725 level for this criterion to hold. We are thus arguing about whether we are reversing the more recent move down from the 1996 high to $415 to the 1999/2001 lows around $255. This second question requires much more delicate judgement, since the 78.6% number comes in around $380.60 (using London PM spot fix) which is very close to recent prices. While we have exceeded this level twice this year (in February and more recently, in early September), my usual rule as a trader is to insist on a close 2% above the target, and this has not yet occurred. In my view, therefore, we need to see a close above $388 before we can conclude that gold is indeed in a new bull phase. It also explains why POG is still hesitant around $380. The insiders know what a big number it is, hence the battle is right here.

Why do I think that $380 will give way?

You��ve probably heard the usual reasons (e.g. insufficient gold production, US imperial overstretch, unsustainable twin deficits, credit bubble, general dissatisfaction with fiat money, the GATA argument, etc., etc.). IMHO, these are necessary but not sufficient conditions. In financial markets, necessary conditions can be ignored for years, while the insiders unwind trades that are the wrong way round.

IMHO, there is only one sufficient condition �C the virtual disappearance of the spread between gold leasing rates and LIBOR means that there's no more money to be made on the short side of the gold market, and hence...bucket loads to be made on the long side.

My own feeling is that the military-financial complex that is currently running the show doesn't really care whether it's long or short, as long as it's on the right side of the trend. Over the last year or so, it has left a number of clues to its movements:

- the mysterious shrinkage of J.P. Morgan��s gold derivative position.

- the launch of the equity gold funds by an ostensibly gold-neutral or even hostile WGC. These will probably be rip-roaring successes in Round 1, and suck in huge volumes of capital - all the better to eat the small investor��s lunch in Round 2.

- the rock solid performance of gold shares in the face of a brutal sell-off in the metal. Someone wants lots of leverage when POG finally blows, and no longer cares if it can't scare the longs out of their positions.

-the abandonment of the Bush regime. Note that the head of the Carlyle group now goes in front of his unsettled investors and tells them that the President of the U.S.A. is a waste of space:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3994.htm

Note that when 3rd world currencies like the Argie Peso or the Brazilian real fall out of bed, it is the loyal local institutions that make a killing. Why should the US be any different? Looks like Dubya is being set up as the fall guy.

PS Gold prediction $390.10

Black Blade

(09/18/2003; 21:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108894)

MK - DMR and BLS

I just returned from the gym and another good sweaty workout and now I am catching up on today's postings and some interesting essays. That is a good suggestion for the BLS and their dubious statistical analyses and CPI/PPI calculations. The BLS could just do as US corporations do now during their quarterly reporting sessions and say "on a pro forma basis" the rate of inflation is zero. ;-)

Cheers!

Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/18/2003; 21:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108895)

Market Wrap Up � Goldberg

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

If I was the CEO of a company with a manic shareholder base in this market environment, my management style may include carefully managing earnings expectations and guidance, reporting pro-forma and C.R.A.P. earnings, issuing mid-quarter updates, making frequent celebrity appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and always trying to "beat-by-a-penny" with sales and profits that are "better-than-expected". I would dismiss any negative business irregularity as a "one time event", and take full credit for the positive ones. The obvious fact is that the long-term prospects for many of these companies may be robust but their long-term growth would not even come close to justifying their irrational valuations. With a shareholder base drunk with speculation, why state the obvious?

Black Blade: "Interesting" as that is what appears to have been and is now the case with these stock infomercial channels on TV. I am amazed at how Lemmings have reemerged for another run toward the cliff with what is yet another obvious speculative bubble in equities. They do provide me (and perhaps a few other "sadistic") viewers with some amusement in what I consider "reality based" television entertainment. I liken it to the "reality" show � "Survivor". In that show the majority were "voted off" and left dejected and angry and in the end only one was left to collect his/her winnings. The losses in the last speculative bubble were about $10.5 trillion from "peak to trough". Here we are again but these are not "reruns". Another speculative bubble appears to be building and yet again we will watch like onlookers at a blood splattered tragic traffic accident to see who are the "survivors" while carnival barkers and stock pitchmen acting as traffic cops tell us "move along people, nothing to see here".

DummyANI

(09/18/2003; 23:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108896)

Japanese stock market was driven by politicians.

Wall Street money was poured into Japanese stock market nearly 60 billion dollars.

Because the general election of Japanese congress will be scheduled in October 2003.

So a present Japanese Government members may be re-elected, but Japanese bank-problems only may be re-scheduled, and a temporal strong yen and Nikkei225 will be re-declined after the general election.

DummyANI

(09/18/2003; 23:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108897)

Strong Yen is prepared for Wall Street return-money.

After Japanese general election, the sitting administration�fs reelection of USA will be very important.

In order to assist the sitting administration of USA, Wall Street will be sold Japanese overvalued stocks at the top level, and will exchange their profits from Yen to dollar at the top FOREX rate.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a YEN.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 00:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108898)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !! (at 00:20 Friday 9/19/03)

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !
ONLY less than THIRTY-SIX hours to go in the ESSAY contest for an Entry ! TICK TOCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

ski

(09/19/2003; 01:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108899)

Silver lease rates

Was I the only one that saw silver lease rates NEARLY DOULBLE yesterday?

While we don't know when silver will finally pop, chances are it will occur in an environment of rising lease rates IMHO.

DummyANI

(09/19/2003; 01:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108900)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:
Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0 512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus 0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c ...376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c. 375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971.. plus3566�c...377.7

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

DummyANI

(09/19/2003; 02:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108901)

Mizuho, Other Banks Cut Profit Forecasts in New Plan (Update1)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a.ssEX.mUU7c&refer=japanSNIP:
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's largest lender by assets, and other banks cut their earnings forecasts for the business year, after regulators asked them to submit new business plans because of a second annual loss.

Mizuho cut its forecast by 9 percent to 200.1 billion yen ($1.74 billion) for the 12 months ending March 31. That compares with the bank's May forecast for net income of 220 billion yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. expects profit of 100 billion yen this year, compared with its May forecast of 150 billion yen.

Minister for Financial Services Heizo Takenaka wants bank executives to stop blaming slumping stocks and three recessions in a decade for their failure to deliver on promises made in exchange for 10.4 trillion yen in public funds between 1998 and 2002.

``The cuts come at a time when banks are making money on their stock holdings on back of the market rally so the nuance of the cuts are a bit different from what it used to be before,'' said Shigemi Nonaka, chairman of Polestar Investment Management Co., which manages the equivalent of $35 million. ``Still, given the current stock prices any sort of revisions makes them less attractive'' as investment targets.

D-ANI: A new plan is always re-scheduled in Japan.

Do you want to buy Yen ?

Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Cuda

(09/19/2003; 03:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108902)

+++++++The New Bull Market In GOLD? YES++++++++

I base my answer solely on faith.

-I have lost faith in my government.
"I" being a tiny percentage of "we the people" am tired of the lies, dishonesty, finger pointing, and cover ups that have flooded into my home over the many years.

One might ask themselves if this is how all elected officials have been since the founding of this nation, and/or is it just since our modern age that the technology of our media has been able to inform the masses of the past with playbacks of quotes and promises. Such as who said what, and who did what to whom.

-I have lost faith in corporate american greed.
How long until the tides change and instead of great people of the world wanting to come to america by whatever means for opportunity, cant find jobs, so they stop coming. Instead the simple american on the ground he was raised on cant find a job, or survive from the cost of living and flee's to other nations by whatever means to work at the job they use to have in america. All this at the cost of the top CEO's greed.

-I have lost faith in the banking system.
Loans with or without interest have been passed out in the past like dealing a deck of cards to anyone who sits at the table. What is the dealer(Banks) going to do when the people cant pay there bets. Foreclosures, bankruptcies in masses, and home values may drop. Its all about supply and demand, and if average people cant afford a house then there is no demand.

-Is the government going to support all these people on welfare in masses?

-Yet the printing goes on an on. Will the dollar continue to have appeal to other countries with whats going on right now?

+FAITH is what will lead all people of this world to another means...GOLD.

Cuda

(09/19/2003; 03:29:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108903)

$$$$ 377.9 $$$$

Mighty oaken table of yore! I am Cuda from the silent blue yonder! I have been listening to the great wisdom of these halls for 2 years to fill my daily cup of knowledge. I thank all thee for a seat and appreciate every word that has echoed this room. I hold my golded cup high and wish you HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!

Cuda

Toolie

(09/19/2003; 03:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108904)

Will the last person in Detroit please turn out the lights?

http://www.detnews.com/2003/autosinsider/0309/19/a10-275700.htm
Snip: GM's Baltimore plant to close; N.J. spared
1,100 Maryland workers affected; Linden crew elated
DETROIT -- General Motors Corp. will close its 68-year old Baltimore assembly plant after 2005....................
----------------------------------------------------------

http://www.detnews.com/2003/autosinsider/0309/19/a01-274891.htm

Snip: Union officials said they learned Wednesday at the meeting that Chrysler may also close or sell two additional Detroit operations.

They are the automaker's Mt. Elliott Tool and Die operation, which employs 290 hourly workers, and DaimlerChrysler Transport, where another 549 UAW members work transporting parts and materials between Chrysler plants.

Seven other Chrysler factories face a possible sale or closure, or have been placed on notice that they must become more profitable. Together, the plants employ more than 5,000 workers........................
______________________________________________________

http://www.detnews.com/2003/autosinsider/0309/19/a06-274953.htm

Snip: Ford negotiates closure of van plant

Shuttering of Lorain assembly part of proposal with UAW........................
________________________________________________________

http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/gm19_20030919.htm

Snip: PLANTS: 10 in U.S. to be sold or closed

The deal also allows all of the automakers to close or sell plants as they grapple with having far more plants than what the market demands. At least 10 plants between the automakers -- affecting about 12,000 UAW workers -- will be sold or closed under this contract. Others -- like the 2,400 workers at Ford Motor Co.'s St. Louis assembly plant -- don't yet know their fate...................
_________________________________________________________

Toolie: I look for similar announcements in the days to come, as the details of the new UAW contract public. Pre-contract estimates put the number of lost jobs between 30,000 and 50,000. A widely accepted rule of thumb is that every "direct auto plant job" creates 3 more, in plant support and services. Greenspan had better keep those rate cuts coming.

The Invisible Hand

(09/19/2003; 03:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108905)

FLUX � deja vu

Dollar Bill (9/18/03; 18:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 108892)
*>*.............-l-
August 29th 2003, Greenspan said:
"Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape... Our problem is not the complexity of our models but the far greater complexity of a world economy whose underlying linkages appear to be in a continual state of flux."

This Greenspan guy knows something. He must have read Karl Popper's "The Open Society and its Enemies" (Princeton University Press, 1966. 5th rev. ed.)
Popper indicates on p.11 that the motto of the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus was "Everything is in flux and nothing at rest"
And further on pp 17-19 that Plato lived in a period of wars and of political strife which was ... even more unsettled than that which had troubled Heraclitus which gave rise to the feeling that society and indeed �everything� was in flux

Toolie now wants Greenspan to keep those rate cuts coming (in an inflationary environment).

Who said again that this was a doom and gloom site?
And who was that Roman philosopher who said �omnia cadunt et morituri moriuntur" (everything will collapse and the mortals will die)?

DummyANI

(09/19/2003; 05:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108906)

Another aspect of Japanese trade surplus

In April 28,2003, Nikkei225 was bottomed at 7607 point.

Who bought Japanese stock-shares, and who sold Japanese stock-shares ?

New York money bought Japanese shares, and Japanese commercial banks sold them.

Nearly 60 billion us dollars were transferred from USA to Japan.

A general election of Japanese congress will be scheduled in October or November of 2003.

If in a near futures Nikkei225 may be topped at 11607 level, 52.6 percent profit will be gained by Wall Street money, that is nearly 31.5 billion dollars at minimum.

I hear nearly equivalent profit/loss was resulted in Japanese Government Bond-Market crash in June to September 2003.

Total 63 billion dollars is nearly equal to the Japanese trade-surplus gained from Jan. 2003 to June 2003.

If Japan has not her trade-surplus, Japan imploded long ago because the worst foolish Japanese bankers are losing at every money-wars from the past to the futures.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Remarx

(09/19/2003; 07:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108907)

$$$$$$ 381.4 $$$$$$

The CPM gold discussion forum provides an excellent, real education on all aspects of gold and its relation to the economy. The variety of informed perspectives presented is remarkable.

Paper Avalanche

(09/19/2003; 08:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108908)

Looks as if someone is anticiapting a "Dubai Agreement"

this weekend. POG is frisky this morning. Looks like it could be a +$10 day.

PA

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/19/2003; 08:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108909)

comex just now

Was there ever a fight �round "-80"
�round "380" I mean.
Two armies - both equal in migthy
has entered the golden scene.

Jing Zu

(09/19/2003; 08:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108910)

Looks like GOLD will be going back up. Huh?

Moving up, up, up! Who will meddle with it today?

Galearis

(09/19/2003; 09:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108911)

@ ski re: lease rates

Forgive me if you know some of what I say.

Lease rates not only went up dramatically yesterday, but continue to spike in healthy fashion today. In this post carry trade era IMO these spikes serve only to service a control of spot silver prices during rally's. ALL leasing now serves this one end and should probably be considered part of the manipulation that has entered end phase. With ever declining limits on physical delivery out of COMEX, currently I believe at 7.5 m.o. per month on delivery months, we are perhaps seeing COMEX initiating proscribed defaults of a kind that being bureaucratic in origin are hoped by that institution to be interpreted as non-defaults. IMO this is not working and has not worked since July.

Look at it another way. What will the world perceive to be reality if physical delivery is limited in the near future to one million ounces a month? Perhaps those with a taste for silver will limit their orders to the paper market so that a rally will bring LEASED physical silver on to the market. The leased silver being the goal of spiking the paper market. Perhaps down the road, this will be the only supply.

An interesting muse, yes?

I think Ted Butler is being read by some entities with deep pockets now.

Best regards,

G.

Tate

(09/19/2003; 10:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108912)

$$$$381.2$$$$

Significant AU price rise <$100> enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?"
"Yes!"
Did anybody found paper dollars, rubles, drachmas, reichmarks or any other fiat variation of a promissory note in nobleman's coffin? No. What is found are artifacts dear to this person and precious metals in all forms including moneys of that time period.
Many Empires came and gone either by defeat or their own demise. The last few Soviet and USD (US dollar). Empires can be built only one way: by enslaving others. The only difference between last two is how it was done. Soviets where exporting 19th century Marxist ideology wrapped and packaged to suit local puppet rulers. Americans do same via US dollar (USD). We all know how quick soviet disintegration was.
Revolt against later empire is in full progress and in opinion of many, the fate of USD is in the hands of unfriendly nations. So the fate of this USD empire is sealed.
American fathers of constitution warned about dangers in letting money printing affairs to end up in bankers hands. Unfortunately in early 19th century money changing charlatans placed United States of America in a bankruptcy situation and later purchased the dollar printing rights in exchange for loans. This is the background of famous FED (Federal Reserve). Very proud history indeed. Money changers had many things in mind. Given lack of information and secret ways they orated it was easy to govern and rule then USA. Since Money Changers (Banker's) honesty can be measured only by gold price in respective currency(of that nation) gold was nailed to the wall internationally and local US subjects where robed and forbidden to poses it.
Open markets, computer systems and internet brought knowledge to everybody. Smart people started asking questions, writing assays, forming web groups who oppose clandestine and illegal activities of elite. This cast the day light at count Dracula. No wonder when US treasury secretary is asked about gold manipulation we se startled and unfriendly person.
As long as money changers can not print gold, they will never defeat it. Your personal investment in precious metal is not only protection against guaranteed devaluation of all paper, it is also vote for honesty and justice for all and not few.
Since American voters repeatedly failed to elect honest people as their top representatives, this vote will eventually be cast by foreigners. The law of nature prevails.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 10:16:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108913)

Nice DUAL CONTESTS entry, Sir Tate !!

Thanks!
ONLY a little over a DAY to enter the ESSAY contest !
SOOO, IF you are going to do so and win the BIG GOLD coin, you better get putting the fingers on the keyboard and letting the THOUGHTS flow !
You KNOW whom I am speaking too!!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 10:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108914)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !! (at 10:30 Friday 9/19/03)

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Less than TWENTY-SIX hours to go in the ESSAY contest for an Entry ! TICK TOCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)

Toolie

(09/19/2003; 10:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108915)

Sir Gandalf, Beggin' the Wizards pardon

Toolie (9/18/03; 18:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108891)
$$$$$376.0$$$$$

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/19/2003; 11:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108916)

Ask about bullion at ONE PERCENT above our cost, free shipping on 25 ounces...

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

contrarian

(09/19/2003; 11:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108917)

$$$$$$380.5$$$$$$*****The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes*********

Greater and greater trade deficits
Even larger budget deficits
Time for commodities to do well

Gradually dropping in price are bonds
On their way down are stocks
Lower and lower the US Dollar she goes
Damn if I shouldn't get gold!

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 11:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108918)

I've got you, Sir Toolie

Toolie (9/19/03; 10:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 108915)
Sir Gandalf, Beggin' the Wizards pardon ---
==
????
(BUT, we may never see that price AGAIN !) <;-)
<;-)

goldenboy

(09/19/2003; 11:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108919)

Galearis: Nice to hear from you.......

I suspect we are neighbours.....enjoying the storm? Anyway, what could a Warren Buffet earn from leasing his silver on a yearly basis? It might be the best of both worlds for some one in his tax bracket provided he could get his silver back.

TownCrier

(09/19/2003; 11:43:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108920)

Have you diversified your holdings for protection against a dollar decline?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030919/group_usa_2.htmlDUBAI, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading economies will decide the contents of the group's communique at their meeting on Saturday, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Friday.

Several G7 countries, particularly the United States, have been pressing China to make its exchange rate more flexible to allow it to appreciate.

...manufacturers say the yuan is kept artificially weak, hurting U.S. exports and contributing to the widening U.S. current account deficit.

------(from url)-----

Vis-�-vis the dollar, to say the yuan is "artificially weak" is to admit the dollar is correspondingly artificially strong.

Therefore, you must ask yourself how much longer are you willing to risk holding your life savings in a political instrument that is regarded in most accounts (including by officials at the U.S. Treasury Department) as something that is of artificial strength?

Seek durability. Seek the power of gold to bolster your savings while the dollar-gold exchange rate remains thus artificially favorable for the conversion.

R.

Jing Zu

(09/19/2003; 12:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108921)

$$$$$$ 384.1 $$$$$$

I am Jing Zu .
The mighty oaken table of yore, an important resource?
Well, of course it is!
Why, where else is one able to gain knowledge of this magnitude? I can think of only one other source of wisdom and knowledge that is superior to this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore, but God wrote that source of wisdom and knowledge. I, Jing Zu have great respect for the people of this gold discussion forum. Thank you all.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 12:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108922)

NEW "KING of the HILL" is crowned !! <;-) SIR CASEY !!!

Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) 9/19/03
Open $379.8 HIGH $384.5 low $376.2 Last $382.2
at 13:36 Friday SETTLEMENT $382.9 Change +$5.2
Today's Volume 40,212
Yesterday's Settlement $377.7 and Open Interest 198,856
"WHAT a difference a day MAKES !"
NOW, everyone -- Make your entries before Sunday HIGH NOON !
The Settlement price at the Close on Monday is the number for which you are looking !!!! TICK TOCK !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 12:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108923)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

http://www.usagold.com/contest.html5th USAGOLD Forum Anniversary POG CONTEST Status Report
UPDATED as of about 12:20 on FRIDAY 9/19/03

NOTE ==> Please check the ENTRIES at the LINK above -- then check all the entries AFTER THAT "UPDATE time" to see if someone has taken your desired PROGNOSTICATION !
Thanks <;-)

VALID Entries (prognostications) are listed in order of decreasing values.
----

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (9/15/03; 02:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108657)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/10/03; 23:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108492)

$$$$ $402.4 $$$$ Aurion (09/17/03; 14:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 108799)

$$$$ $395.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/15/03; 21:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108690)

$$$$ $393.3 $$$$ slingshot (9/11/03; 00:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108494)

$$$$ $392.5 $$$$ second wind (9/17/03; 07:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108770)

$$$$ $390.1 $$$$ Socrates964 (9/18/03; 19:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 108893)
$$$$ $390.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (9/10/03; 22:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108488)

$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568)

$$$$ $387.9 $$$$ steady (09/17/03; 19:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108811)

$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857)

$$$$ $384.1 $$$$ Jing Zu (9/19/03; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108921)

$$$$ $383.3 $$$$ Gonlyold (09/17/03; 01:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 108762)
$$$$ $383.2 $$$$ Casey (09/12/03; 14:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 108580)

$$$$ $382.2 $$$$ RobotGuy (9/18/03; 11:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108864)

$$$$ $382.0 $$$$ alkahulik (9/18/03; 11:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108861)

$$$$ $381.4 $$$$ Remarx (9/19/03; 07:39:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108907)

$$$$ $381.2 $$$$ Tate (9/19/03; 10:00:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108912)

$$$$ $381.0 $$$$ sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618)

$$$$ $380.5 $$$$ contrarian (9/19/03; 11:18:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108917)

$$$$ $380.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (09/12/03; 23:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108591)

$$$$ $379.2 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/17/03; 20:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108816)

$$$$ $379.0 $$$$ Gondolin (09/17/03; 10:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 108780)

$$$$ $378.8 $$$$ Smeagol (09/16/03; 18:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108739)

$$$$ $378.6 $$$$ heavy mettle (09/16/03; 17:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108737)

$$$$ $377.9 $$$$ Cuda (9/19/03; 03:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108903)

$$$$ $377.0 $$$$ DryWasher (9/15/03; 11:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 108669)

$$$$ $376.0 $$$$ Toolie (9/18/03; 18:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108891)

$$$$ $375.7 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (09/17/03; 19:51:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108812)

$$$$ $373.2 $$$$ specie-man (09/17/03; 11:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108789)

$$$$ $371.0 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/18/03; 10:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108851)

$$$$ $368.5 $$$$ cockerel1 (9/13/03; 21:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108611)

$$$$ $364.7 $$$$ Topaz (09/17/03; 04:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 108765)

===
<;-)

VanRip

(09/19/2003; 12:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108924)

*****386.70*****

Most of what I've learned that mattered most to me over the years came not from books but from hanging around people smarter than I was. That's why I come here. Lots of smart folks to learn from. Do miss the thoughts from some of the old timers who used to post many months ago, including A, FOA and ORO.

Jing Zu

(09/19/2003; 12:30:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108925)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

This is an obvious YES answer, that is to me�.

With respect to a "new" bull market, this means that there was a bear market prior. I believe that as long as the US Federal Exchange Note is being printed, the bull market that we are in will continue. It seems obvious to me from reading many forum messages, that the gold market itself is constantly being manipulated. Even though this manipulation is continually taking place, it cannot last long. It is very difficult if not impossible to cheat and lie forever. I believe that this is coming to an end and the rush to acquire the metal of choice will be coming in monstrous proportions in the very near future. An even LARGER bull market is ahead!

Waverider

(09/19/2003; 12:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108926)

CoBra(too)

I hope and pray for you that your most diligent search since the last price guessing competition has been a success....that you have discovered and unveiled your Yin...if not, as the Great Wizard said...you have only a few hours left to do so....;o)
Waverider

TownCrier

(09/19/2003; 12:49:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108927)

Time this weekend?

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlTake a special walk through this archive and exercise your brain muscle.

"...can you not follow in the footsteps of giants?"

(09/19/2003; 12:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108928)

NY Gold Vault - Found the following at document prepared for school children :)

http://ecedweb.unomaha.edu/ve/library/KEGV.PDF"Resting on the bedrock of Manhattan Island, eighty feet below street level, is the world's largest known accumulation of gold. The gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York attracts more than 22,000 visitors a year. The Bank does not own the gold; it serves as its custodian. Almost all of the gold bars or bullion belongs to foreign central banks and international monetary organizations."

"The gold is secured in a most unusual vault, an impressive chamber nearly half the length of a football field. It contained approximately 315 million troy ounces of gold early in 1991.."
�..
"Foreign-owned gold officially valued at $26 million was on deposit with the Bank when the present main vault was opened in September 1924. Holdings rose to about $458 million by the end of 1931, then fell sharply in the early years of the Great Depression. The economic problems of the United States, a slump in world trade, the lack of confidence in the international monetary system and a desire to provide a psychological boost to their troubled economies prompted many nations to recall their gold. By 1935, foreign gold deposits had fallen to about $9 million."

"The trend of withdrawals was reversed by the threat of war in Europe. It brought a virtual flood of gold to the Bank for safekeeping. More than $1 billion poured in between
1936 and 1939, when Germany invaded Poland. By the end of the war in 1945, foreign gold reserves stored at the Federal Reserve Bank had risen to a total of over $4 billion."

($4billion/35=114 million oz=3550 tons)

Magister Aurelius

(09/19/2003; 13:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108929)

*****The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.*****

Is there a new bull market in Gold? The answer is yes, but don't expect any fireworks. It has been fairly clear that the price of gold has been steadily manipulated over the last 20 or so years. With the second and third closing prices of gold reaching $380.00+ during the last two weeks, it is clear that gold is breaking out of an established range. The Powers That Be, however, will continue to prevent a massive or sudden spike in gold by direct manipulation, gentlemen's agreements and flat out media minimalization of gold in order to keep the current global economy stable enough for gradual reorganization. So in the meantime, gold will rise, but at a steady pace. After gold reaches $600, the true bull market is on, and gold breaks the speed governor.

a nation of one

(09/19/2003; 13:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108930)

$$$$$ 382.5 $$$$$

My 25 word explantion will be posted later. I have to think about it some more.

Magister Aurelius

(09/19/2003; 13:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108931)

$$$$ $380.7 $$$$

Upon reading this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore,
one does much except react with a snore;
And the golden nuggets from here,
give one cause to cheer;
And shows Greenspan to be but a media whore.

Sorry, but it's Friday and only a mildly bawdy limerick would do.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/19/2003; 13:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108932)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

NEWS FLASH!!! NEWS FLASH!!! NEWS FLASH!!!

The Washington Accord will be extended another 5 years - see the DMR for details. This just in from officials in Dubai!

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 13:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108933)

Washington Accord To Be Extended 5 More Years!

Yes, after the gold pits closed it has just come out that the G7 will discuss an extension of the WA tomorrow and the word is it will be for another 5 years. If this had come out during trading you know that gold would have rocketed over $400 an ounce today. See the DMR for details. I had more news to add but this is even bigger news and had to get out.

A glorious day for goldbugs, traders, speculators, and those who believe in hard cold cash (real money). Read and enjoy!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 13:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108934)

Central bankers to discuss new gold sales agreement

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030919/group_gold_2.html
Snippit:

DUBAI, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Central bankers at a Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting in Dubai will initiate talks on a new gold deal on Saturday under which sales could rise in stages from 400 tonnes a year, a G7 official said on Friday.

Black Blade: After repeated denials it is going to actually happen. Of course they could not release this info during trading hours � especially on "quadruple witching" day. The POG would have soared well above $400 an ounce. Let's see how the markets react on Monday now that the news is out and they have time to digest the news.

Clink!

(09/19/2003; 13:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108935)

@ Magister Aurelius

Ooh ! I do like a limerick ! But that phrase "Mighty Oaken Table of Yore" is a real bummer to get to scan ! I've been trying for about three days myself.
C!

Lothar of the Hill People

(09/19/2003; 13:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108936)

$$$$ 384.1 $$$$

Indeed, this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is a key resource for the Hill People. Lothar's market knowledge lies only in the single asset of the Hill People--the abundant guano of the sacred Great Albino Bats which dwell in the deep recesses of the ancient cavern home of the Hill People.

What little I have come to understand about gold, I have primarily learned from sitting at the feet of the Lords and Ladies who grace this great hall.

My thanks and the gratitude of my People to you all.

Fare Ye well in the contest,

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.

Operative

(09/19/2003; 13:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108937)

@ Black Blade - Congrats on THE Scoop of the Week!!

Job Well Done Sir Black Blade. Great Daily Report, as usual of course. Great scoop on the New Agreement for gold sales.
(You know, the one they said would not be a topic of disuccsion.LOLOLOLOL)

I think I will get a 6 pack and sit in front of CNBC, you know that wonderful stock/news channel, and drink slowly until they mention the story of the new gold sales agreement. Wait. In furthur thinking, I better bring up a couple cases from the cooler and plan on spending at least the weekend waiting the CNBC to mention it. What a joke they are!

Happy weekend to all! But dont forget to check in at USAGOLD to get the latest in BREAKING News!!

Lothar of the Hill People

(09/19/2003; 13:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108938)

$$$$ 384.6 $$$$ revised

Lothar sees that he was too slow on the uptake.

Lothar humbly submits a new bid.

Pardon,

I am Lothar of the Hill People

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 13:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108939)

The Bank of Russia issues precious coins with the Archer

External and Public Relations Department of the Bank of Russia informs that on September 26, 2003, the Bank of Russia issues silver and golden coins of the "Signs of zodiac" series with the Archer: the silver coins are at the face value of 3 roubles and the golden coins are at the face value of 50 roubles. The number of coins issued is up to 30 thou pcs of both kinds. These are the legal payment method in the Russian Federation.

Black Blade: The EU is also planning a new series of gold coin. Should get interesting as gold and silver are about to experience a new surge of interest on today's news.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 13:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108940)

ROFL -- That;s a GREAT one Sir ANOO !!! <;-)

a nation of one (9/19/03; 13:11:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 108930)
My 25 word explantion will be posted later. I have to think about it some more.
===
WHAT is it that I have been saying for over a WEEK !
THINK THINK THINK !
I shall also think about your number !
<;-)

ginsenghi

(09/19/2003; 13:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108941)

Contest

the new bull market in gold.Yes
the goverment can't hind the worthless dollar we carry around any longer. the only constant isn't just change but the worth of gold through the decades.

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 13:55:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108942)

OMG - Look At The Stock Tickers!!!

Gold shares are flying off the printing presses. NEM is even pushing against $41 a share and others are punching higher to with stronger than normal volume. Everyone is trying to "front run" Monday's gold market maybe. This is wild but not a peep from the carnival barkers on CNBC or Bloomberg yet. I notice that some of the silver shares are dropping so maybe there is a shift from one to the other. Looks like some quick wild trades in the final minutes of trade. Could even get fun in some "after hours" trade. We should see how this news plays out when Asia opens Sunday night. Most gold analysts were were caught with their pants down around their ankles on this one. After repeated denials that the IMF would even consider discussing the WA they do a 180 turn around after the gold pits closed. The only question is whether it will be 400 tons a year or slightly more. Word is that some officials are pushing for it to remain at the current 400 tons per year.

- Black Blade

ginsenghi

(09/19/2003; 13:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108943)

$$$$$$$

$378.5 gold

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 13:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108944)

Sir Ginsenghi ----- ATTENTION -- I need a 25 word STATEMENT !!!

ginsenghi (9/19/03; 13:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108943)

TownCrier

(09/19/2003; 13:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108945)

An early look at the September 22 'Central Bank Insider'

http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlThanks again to our friends at Central Banking Publications Ltd. for the latest bits of CB-related insights and gentle irreverence.

Excerpts:

AFGHAN TREASURE HUNT

Anwar-ul-Haq Ahady, the central bank governor in Afghanistan, has been on a treasure hunt - and was not disappointed. Together with the country's president, finance minister and justice minister, he descended into the subterranean expanse that lies beneath President Karzai's palace in Kabul, and succeeded in penetrating a vault that has remained walled up since 1989 during communist times.

Happily, the Taliban were unable to lay their hands on the priceless antiquities of gold, silver and other treasures that it contained, despite their best attempts to gain access, by fair means or foul. "I think the Taliban tried to open it, but bank officials somehow managed to prevent them, Ahady told reporters. "There were numerous rumours during the last 15 years that most of the gold had been taken from the vaults." According to the finance minister, its guardians were "beaten almost senseless", but never actually allowed them to get in. According to one version, officials deliberately broke the keys to bar access.

Only now has the government found a way into its own vault. It had hoped the company that crafted the lock might have been of some help in getting in, but rather infuriatingly it no longer exists. Still, aided by some resourceful local locksmiths, they have now managed to confirm that their treasure, which could be worth some $90 million, is intact. No small sum, when one considers that total Afghan foreign exchange reserves are around $600 million.

------(visit url for more)-----

In Iraq:
...new CB governor says, "You cannot support the currency, you cannot intervene in the markets without actually having reserves."

At the ECB:
... Trichet ready for "the big confrontation ... between monetary and fiscal policy"

In the U.S.:
..."the end of the greenback is nigh!"

In England:
... inflation scrutiny to ascertain "what the hell's going on."

No regrets on the continent:
... "I would undoubtedly prefer a safe Duisenberg to a Greenspan"

Greenspan advises S.African CB governor:
... "try to look 'older and wiser'."

At the Russian central bank:
... an office desk is not the place to die.

R.

Clink!

(09/19/2003; 14:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108946)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

I listed 'Perspective' as the subject of a post earlier this week. Sometimes it's good to stop and reflect on what is buzzing in the news and commentaries now compared to, say, a year ago, or six months ago or even a month ago. Today there are a number of gold articles on a regular basis in major newspapers, but when did this trend, oh ever so gradual, start to impinge on our conciousness ? I can't say for sure, but they weren't there, apart from the occasional half (or more !) mocking piece, before the summer. You can say the same thing for a number of other things - When did President Bush start to really get some heat on Iraq ? How long will it be before there are stories every day about the job exodus from the US/Europe to China/India ? Some things are charted, such as the POG or USDX, so it's easy to look back and put a date on a particular turn or market move. But bull and bear markets are more nebulous than that.

Our problem here is that we tend to anticipate what is going to happen so that its impact when it finally comes around is lessened. But the golden tectonic plate is definitely moving, and it is definitely bumping against the fiat one. The pressure is building, and there will, sooner or later, be an eruption. Its timing and magnitude remain to be seen, but it will happen. Some think that there will be a sharp, but 'reasonable' rise to, say, $900, others that gold will rise to $30,000 (or rather that the dollar will fall so far that you will need that many per measly ounce). There are other scenarios, involving armed conflict, which portray a bankrupt empire with a lot of weapons and nothing to lose. And gold has already been confiscated in several countries before now. I see the start of a gold bull market now, but my glass, perhaps luckily, goes dark when I look to where its end lies.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 14:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108947)

OH, yes ! ALSO, Sir Ginsenghi --- WELCOME !!

Essay Contest -- (9/19/03; 13:51:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 108941)
===
AND, Please collect your one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle --
FORMER LURKER !
Thanks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 14:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108948)

POG Contest listings UPDATED !!!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPlease check your numbers against those made AFTER the update time --- and remember to add the 25 words that are needed !
The number of entries still in "THINKING" mode is massive !
Tick Tock !
<;-)

Aquarian

(09/19/2003; 14:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108949)

(No Subject)

I'm an idiot--especially when it comes to economics. but if someone could answer my question(s), i would greatly appreciate it:

what would happen first--in a collapse--a fall in stock prices or a fall in the value of the dollar? would it be possible for the dollar to be greatly devalued before a market crash? if the dollar suddenly dropped would that necessarily facilitate a market drop? What would facilitate a sharp, significant rise in physical gold the most--a dollar devaluation or a market crash?

please post a response--even if you just want to rip on how much of an idiot i am. thanks a lot from a mind much feebler than most of you in this forum.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 14:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108950)

NOW HEAR THIS !!!

Ok, now you former LURKERS !
Many of you are owed a one Ounce U.S. Silver Eagle for your first post in the ESSAY Contest !
AND USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. would LOVE to send it to you ----- BUT -- (let us think about this)
----
WHAT Info do you think that is needed to be able to check the fact that it was really you that are due the PRECIOUS ?
--
Your posting "Handle" ? -- YES !!
The Post #, or EVEN better a copy the post.
Your Real NAME ? -- YES !!
AND --Your mailing address ? -- YES !!
--
THEN after the Double checking is done -- The PRECIOUS will be posted !
---
We knew that numerous LURKERS would be interested in the prize and emails from AROUND the WORLD are arriving !
BUT, ---
The Wiz's "ASSISTANT", Lady Marie, is starting to SCREAM, as the incoming info is inadequate for her to complete her duties and get the PRECIOUS in the snailmail to you ALL that are truly due the award !
PLEASE, assist us !
Thanks
<;-)

Rimh

(09/19/2003; 14:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108951)

POG move today

I had a feeling it may make a move today. I haven't spent too much time analyzing the daily/weekly movements lately, but it seemed the time was right. Now with the announcement out of Dubai (Thanks, BB!) I wonder if its not set for a strong move on Monday? We will see! If I'm wrong on the price guessing contest, I would love to be wrong on the low side!!

A good weekend to all!

Rimh

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 14:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108952)

Sir Aquarian --- THAT is not a question from an "Idiot" !

Aquarian (9/19/03; 14:30:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 108949)
==
THAT is a DEEP THINKER that is asking THAT Question !
Thanks
I too will be looking forward to the answers !
<;-)

Joanne

(09/19/2003; 14:50:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108953)

$$$$386.2$$$$

My cooking, alas, is a bore
And comparative brain power....poor
So I'll lap up the rinds
That fall from the minds
At the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore.

I didn't read the directions. It's supposed to be a limerick....right?

Clink!

(09/19/2003; 14:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108954)

$$$$ 387.1 $$$$$

A few years ago, maybe more,
I thought money was just a great bore,
But excitement I've found,
I'm even spellbound,
At the Mighty Oak Table of Yore.

There's a wizzard, a bat and ANOO,
Some ladies, some Greeks, a snake too,
A joy to behold,
The stories they've told,
At the Mighty Oak Table of Yore.

And across in the Great Hall of Fame
Write Another, and friend of the same,
It's a mighty big read,
But you'll find what you need
At the Mighty Oak Table of Yore.

And NOW, Lords and Ladies, A TOAST !
To the lord of the castle, our host,
Five years may be gone,
But the Bull's just begun
At the Mighty Oak Table of Yore.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 14:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108955)

ROFL --- That is GREAT Lady Joanne !!!

Joanne (9/19/03; 14:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108953)
I didn't read the directions. It's supposed to be a limerick....right?
==
ABSOLUTELY ! -- A Limerick !!
Did everyone see this ?
<;-)
ROFL -- LOVE IT !

Clink!

(09/19/2003; 14:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108956)

Way to go, Joanne !

Nope, the limerick isn't necessary, but I'm sure we could start a trend. That's four of us so far, if I've counted right.
C!

contrarian

(09/19/2003; 14:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108957)

Aquarian--dollar drop or stock crash? why would impact gold more?

My take on it is...since the price of gold is denominated in dollars, the drop in the dollar would have the strongest, most immediate impact on the price of gold.

Gold and dollar are in inverse ratio since gold is denominated in dollars worldwide. So the mathematical relationship dictates that gold will go up if dollar goes down.

Notice, the reason people are hopeful gold will go up is that in the last few weeks, it has been going up even while the US Dollar index has been going up. So this indicates some hidden strength in the gold market...someone is buying big.

Stocks and gold don't necessary relate as much. Sometimes if stocks drop, you could say that gold will go up, but the relationship is much murkier here.

Which will drop first? The dollar or the stock market?

I think, due to Exchange Stabilization Fund manipulation, we have a manipulated stock market through buying/selling of index futures (in early morning or around 3pm). I suspect they're going to keep that sucker up for a while.

But their efforts to keep dollar propped up may be less effective. It's the other countries in the world too, who impact this, and don't forget the terrible trade deficit.

So the dollar could drop, and then the stock market could follow, as foreigners sell their stocks to cut their losses (since their stocks are demoninated in dollars).

I've been anticipating a stock drop for over a year now, but haven't seen it. Wish I hadn't bought that short selling stock fund (a mutual fund that makes money if stocks go down), because at the time I didn't realize the dollar connection. I'm stuck waiting for stocks to drop, but that might not happen until the dollar drops first, so by the time stocks drop--and I can sell--the short selling stock fund is worth less due to the felled dollar!

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 15:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108958)

WOWSERS !!!! EVEN Better Sir Clink!

Clink! (9/19/03; 14:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108954)
We should have had prizes for the POG words too !
<;-)

Aquarian

(09/19/2003; 15:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108959)

Sir Gandalf

well thanks for not calling me an idiot (though perhaps you're being a little sarcastic).

(certainly), i'm not looking for any concrete, certain answers since certainty is an illusion. however, should anyone--especially yourself sir gandalf--have any speculation, i would love to hear it.

for your convenience here is my original posting:

what would happen first--in a collapse--a fall in stock prices or a fall in the value of the dollar? would it be possible for the dollar to be greatly devalued before a market crash? if the dollar suddenly dropped would that necessarily facilitate a market drop? What would facilitate a sharp, significant rise in physical gold the most--a dollar devaluation or a market crash?

Aquarian

(09/19/2003; 15:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108960)

(No Subject)

thanks much, contrarian. and thanks also for not ripping on me being an idiot. man, everyone in this forum is so pleasant and respectful. i guess i knew that.

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 15:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108961)

Sir Aquarian

Aquarian (09/19/03; 15:04:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 108959)

for your convenience here is my original posting:

what would happen first--in a collapse--a fall in stock prices or a fall in the value of the dollar? would it be possible for the dollar to be greatly devalued before a market crash? if the dollar suddenly dropped would that necessarily facilitate a market drop? What would facilitate a sharp, significant rise in physical gold the most--a dollar devaluation or a market crash?
===
Well -- Let us look back at Brazil and what happened there when the Real fell.
The POG, as it was valued in US$, GREATLY increased in the number of Reals that were available for a trade of an ounce of GOLD !
THE Brazilian Stock Market WENT BONKERS !! STRAIGHT UP !!
(as the peoples WITH Reals traded them for something HARD of value (in their thinking) which was the companies that were operating in Brazil.
SOOOO, How do you evaluate these actions to the U.S.A. ?
That is a question that I must THINK about for a far longer time !
PERHAPS, the GREAT MINDS of this Forum can tell me too.
<;-)

Rimh

(09/19/2003; 15:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108962)

Actually quite good questions, Aquarian...

I am not an economist either, and I not sure they could provide you with an easy answer anyway. As I see it, the foreigners hold most of the keys for whichever scenario they wish to enact. If its a slow motion deterioration they want, they will play their cards to "make it so". If they are waiting for an unknown "opportune moment" to drop the financial bomb, they could do that too. Either way, we know that they have alot of control.

Other issues may be the rising price of gold and/or rising interest rates affecting derivatives here at home and causing some kind of implosion. TPTB would attempt to hide or cover any damage this may cause, but it must be getting increasingly difficult. Right now there seems to be an organized effort to keep all calm on the surface, but as you may know, "there is no honor among thieves". If one major institution saw the writing on the wall and decided to run for the exit, the others would quickly follow and that would bring the stock market down. But I think they all have too much at stake to risk that.

More likely, I see the dollar beginning the fall as foreigners more aggressively sell it due to the unsustainability of the debt/deficit; this would first affect the bond market and finally the stock market. Right now they all seem to be in a delicate dance, or perhaps, like musical chairs, they are all waiting for someone else to turn off the music, so they can concentrate on which chair they will grab when it does stop. That chair probably involves a healthy portion of gold...

Just my humble thoughts. If I am off base, so be it. I look forward to the thoughts of others..

Rimh

Toolie

(09/19/2003; 15:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108963)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

The "Total Official Omnichronicle Listing for Indication of Economies" defines a "Bull Market in Gold". It must satisfy ALL of the following conditions.

1) Does the Sight of the color gold bring an irresistible, content grin across your face?

2) Does the Sound of the change in your pocket remind you of a loose exhaust system that is about to fall off a car?

3) Do you Feel enveloping anticipation as the USAGOLD page loads?

4) Do you begin to wonder if you ever really preferred the Taste of dark beers?

5) Can you Smell the fear of the "carnival barkers" through you TV?

Happy Birthday CPM :-)

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 15:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108964)

More for Sir Aquarian !!

http://blacktusk.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/fxplotUse the above LINK to plot the vaule of one ounce GOLD in Brazilian Reals for the EXACT dates of Jan. 1996 to present and see what I mean.
This UBC data service is a GREAT resource !
Try it for other evaluations also.
(Just like the USAGOLD Forum.)
<;-)

fever1

(09/19/2003; 15:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108965)

The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes

http://www.mises.orgI do not profess to be knowledgeable about economic matters pre se. (My background is technical. For my primary occupation has been in the semiconductor industry, which has been devastated in the past three years do to the credit expansionist and inflationary policies of our wonderful central bank for the past 13 years. This has lead to malinvestment and overcapacity in the industry.) But I am learning especially through the Austrian School about true economics. Not something you'll be taught in American universities!!! Now I believe that gold is going to continue upward for the foreseeable future. 1st. With the debased almost worthless dollar, which has lost 95% of it's value since 1913 I believe, it's becoming more imperative to own precious metals i.e. bullion in one's portfolio. And as more people become cognizant of this fact, this demand factor should continue to push the price of gold upward. 2nd. I think we are heading to a situation that we had in the 1930's of economic nationalism, currency bloc warfare, and protectionism. (Note: I've seen protective tariffs first had in the chip business i.e. in the Dram market.) The old dollar imperialism that replaced the sterling-pound imperialism is slowing degrading away. What's going to replace it nobody now for sure, but it's better to own gold or silver which cannot be manipulated and depreciated in an ever downward spiral like any fiat currency. 3rd. I believe the Pax Americana like the Pax Britannica and Romana is coming to an end. Which will mean a shift in currency domination by the USA to another currency, or in currency bloc warfare, which is neither good for business, individuals, or nations in general. The Europeans are trying to do this with the euro and the Chinese aren't budging with their currnecy. These are some of my reasons and still more. Let me finish by saying about gold and the gold coin standard, and write verbatim an excerpt from Ludwig Von Mises seminal work: Human Action. (completed 1949). This is the greatest economic treatise ever written and the last one to be written in Western society to the present time.

The Gold Standard
Men have chosen the precious metals gold and silver for the money service on account of their mineralogical, physical, and chemical features. The use of money in a market economy is a praxeologically necessary fact. That gold---and not something else---is used as money is merely a historical fact and as such cannot be conceived by catallactics. (Note: praxeology is the study of human action and catallactics means the science of exchanges). In monetary history too, as in all other branches of history, one must resort to historical understanding. If one takes pleasure in calling the gold standard a "barbarous relic" (note: doesn't everyone love those Keynesian quotes: delivered before the House of Lords, May 23, 1944) one cannot object to the application of the same term to every historically determined institution. Then the fact that the British speak English�and not Danish, German, or French�is a barbarous relic too, and every Briton who opposes the substitution of Esperanto for English is no less dogmatic and orthodox than those who do not wax rapturous about the plans for a managed currency. The demonetization of silver and the establishment of gold monometallism was the outcome of deliberate government interference with monetary matters. It is pointless to raise the question concerning what would have happened in the absence of these policies. But it must not be forgotten that it was not the intention of the governments to establish the gold standard. What the governments aimed at was the double standard. They wanted to substitute a rigid, government-decreed exchange ratio between gold and silver for the fluctuating market ratios between the independently coexistent gold and silver coins. The monetary doctrines underlying these endeavors misconstrued the market phenomena in that complete way in which only bureaucrats can misconstrue them. The attempts to create a double standard of both metals, gold and silver, failed lamentably. It was this failure which generated the gold standard. The emergence of the gold standard was the manifestation of a crushing defeat of the governments and their cherished doctrines. In the seventeenth century the rates at which the English government tariffed the coins overvalued the guinea with regard to silver and thus made the silver coins disappear. (note: sounds like Gresham's law to me.) Only those silver coins which were much worn by usage or in any other way defaced or reduced in weight remained in current use; it did not pay to export and to sell them on the bullion market. Thus England got the gold standard against the intention of its government. Only much later the laws made the de facto gold standard a de jure standard. The government abandoned further fruitless attempts to pump silver standard coins into the market and minted silver only as subsidiary coins with a limited legal tender power. These subsidiary coins were not money, but money-substitutes. Their exchange value depended not on their silver content, but on the fact that they could be exchanged at every instant, without delay and without cost, at their full faced value against gold. They were de facto silver printed notes, claims against a definite amount of gold. Later in the course of the nineteenth century the double standard resulted in a similar way in France and in other countries of the Latin Monetary Union in the emergence of de facto gold monometallism. When the drop in the price of silver in the later �seventies would automatically have effected the replacement of the de facto gold standard by the de facto silver standard, these governments suspended the coinage of silver in order to preserve the gold standard. In the United States the price structure on the bullion market had already, before the outbreak of the Civil War, transformed the legal bimetallism into de facto gold monometallism. After the greenback period there ensured a struggle between the friends of the gold standard on the one hand and those of silver on the other hand. The result was a victory for the gold standard. Once the economically most advanced nations had adopted the gold standard, all other nations followed suit. After the great inflationary adventures of the first World War most countries hastened to return to the gold standard or the gold exchange standard. The gold standard was the world standard of the age of capitalism, increasing welfare, liberty, and democracy, both political and economic. In the eyes of the free traders its main eminence was precisely the fact that it was an international standard as required by international trade and the transactions of the international money and capital market. It was the medium of exchange by means of which Western industrialism and Western capital had borne Western civilization into the remotest parts of the earth's surface, everywhere destroying the fetters of age-old prejudices and superstitions, sowing the seeds of new life and new well-being, freeing minds and souls, and creating riches unheard of before. It accompanied the triumphal unprecedented progress of Western liberalism ready to unite all nations into a community of free nations peacefully cooperating with one another. It is easy to understand why people viewed the gold standard as the symbol of this greatest and most beneficial of all historical changes. All those intent upon sabotaging the evolution toward welfare, peace, freedom, and democracy loathed the gold standard, and not only on account of its economic significance. In their eyes the gold standard was the labarum, the symbol, of all those doctrines and policies they wanted to destroy. In the struggle against the gold standard much more was at stake than commodity prices and exchange rates. The nationalists were fighting the gold standard because they wanted to sever their countries from the world market and to establish national autarky as far as possible. Interventionist governments and pressure groups are fighting the gold standard because they consider it the most serious obstacle to their endeavors to manipulate prices and wage rates. But the most fanatical attacks against gold are made by those intent upon credit expansion. With them credit expansion is the panacea for all economic ills. It could lower or even entirely abolish interest rates, raise wages and prices for the benefit of all expect the parasitic capitalists and the exploiting employers, free the state from the necessity of balancing its budget�in short, make all decent people prosperous and happy. Only the gold standard, that devilish contrivance of the wicked and stupid "orthodox" economists, prevents mankind from attaining everlasting prosperity. The gold standard is certainly not a perfect or ideal standard. There is no such thing as perfection in human things. But nobody is in a position to tell us how something more satisfactory could be put in place of the gold standard. The purchasing power of gold is not stable. But the very notions of stability and unchangeability of purchasing power are absurd. In a living and changing world there cannot be any such thing as stability of purchasing power. In the imaginary construction of an evenly rotating economy there is no room left for a medium of exchanged. It is an essential feature of money that its purchasing power is changing. In fact, the adversaries of the gold standard do not want to make money's purchasing power stable. They want rather to give to the governments the power to manipulate purchasing power without being hindered by an "external" factor, namely, the money relation of the gold standard. The main objection raised against the gold standard is that it makes operative in the determination of prices a factor which no government can control�the vicissitudes of gold production. Thus an "external" or "automatic" force restrains a national government's power to make its subjects as prosperous as it would like to make them. The international capitalists dictate and the nation's sovereignty becomes a sham. However, the futility of interventionist policies has nothing at all to do with monetary matters. It will be shown later why all isolated measures of government interference with market phenomena must fail to attain the ends sought. If the interventionist government wants to remedy the shortcomings of its first interferences by going further and further, it finally converts its country's economic system into socialism of the German pattern i.e. especially in the 30's. Then it abolishes the domestic market altogether, and with it money and all monetary problems, even though it may retain some of the terms and labels of the market economy. In both cases it is not the gold standard that frustrates the good intentions of the benevolent authority. The significance of the fact that the gold standard makes the increase in the supply of gold depend upon the profitability of producing gold is, of course, that it limits the government's power to resort to inflation. The gold standard makes the determination of money's purchasing power independent of the changing ambitions and doctrines of political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard; it is its main excellence. Every method of manipulating purchasing power is by necessity arbitrary. All methods recommended for the discovery of an allegedly objective and "scientific" yardstick for monetary manipulation are based on the illusion that changes in purchasing power can be "measured." The gold standard removes the determination of cash-induced changes in purchasing power from the political arena. Its general acceptance requires the acknowledgment of the truth that one cannot make all people richer by printing money. The abhorrence of the gold standard is inspired by the superstition that omnipotent governments can create wealth out of little scraps of paper. It has been asserted that the gold standard too is a manipulated standard. The governments may influence the height of gold's purchasing power either by credit expansion, even if it is kept within the limits drawn by considerations of preserving the redeemability of the money-substitutes, or indirectly by furthering measures which induce people to restrict the size of their cash holdings. This is true. It cannot be denied that the rise in commodity prices which occurred between 1896 and 1914 was to a great extent provoke by such government policies. But the main thing is that the gold standard keeps all such endeavors toward lowering money's purchasing power within narrow limits. The inflationists are fighting the gold standard precisely because they consider these limits a serious obstacle to the realization of their plans. What the expansionists call the defects of the gold standard are indeed its very eminence and usefulness. It checks large-scale inflationary ventures on the part of governments. The gold standard did not fail. The governments were eager to destroy it, because they were committed to the fallacies that credit expansion is an appropriate means of lowering the rate of interest and of "improving" the balance of trade. No government is, however, powerful enough to abolish the gold standard. Gold is the money of international trade and of the super-national economic community of mankind. It cannot be affected by measures of governments whose sovereignty is limited to definite countries. As long as a country is not economically self-sufficient in the strict sense of the term, as long as there are still some loopholes left in the walls by which nationalistic governments try to isolate their countries from the rest of the world, gold is still used as money. It does not matter that governments confiscate the gold coins and bullion they can seize and punish those holding gold as felons. The language of bilateral clearing agreements by means of which governments are intent upon eliminating gold from international trade, avoids any reference to gold. But the turnovers performed on the ground of those agreements are calculated on gold prices. He who buys or sells on a foreign market calculates the advantages and disadvantages of such transactions in gold. In spite of the fact that a country has severed its local currency from any link with gold, its domestic structure of prices remains closely connected with gold and the gold prices of the world market. If a government wants to sever its domestic price structure from that of the world market, It must resort to other measures, such as prohibitive import and export duties and embargoes. Nationalization of foreign trade, whether effected openly or directly by foreign exchange control, does not eliminate gold. The governments qua traders are trading by the use of gold as a medium of exchange. The struggle against gold which is one of the main concerns of all contemporary governments must not be looked upon as an isolated phenomenon. It is but one item in the gigantic process of destruction which is the mark of our time. People fight the gold standard because they want to substitute national autarky for free trade, war for peace, totalitarian government omnipotence for liberty. It may happen one day that technology will discover a method of enlarging the supply of gold at such a low cost that gold will become useless for the monetary service. Then people will have to replace the gold standard by another standard. It is futile to bother today about the way in which this problem will be solved. We do not know anything about the conditions under which the decision will have to be made.

Feedback greatly welcomed

Aquarian

(09/19/2003; 15:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108966)

(No Subject)

thanks everyone---i'm outta here for today.

Paper Avalanche

(09/19/2003; 15:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108967)

@ Black Blade

Sir Black Blade, you mentioned:

"The only question is whether it will be 400 tons a year or slightly more."

Please bear in mind that the same people (CB's IMF, et al)that intentionally tried to set our expectations that there would not be a discussion of gold this weekend are similarly setting the expectation that it will at least 400 tons / year.

I have a feeling that the agreed upon limit on gold sales will be lower than 400 tons and THAT will be the real story when trading resumes on Monday.

Just a hunch. I'm probably wrong.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 16:11:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108968)

PA - New WA Accord

You may be right as a couple of bankers are rumored to have stated they expect it to be closer to 350 tons/year. We may find out sometime over the weekend.

- Black Blade

Operative

(09/19/2003; 16:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108969)

***390.10 ***

Gold bull no, or yes?
Listen to the Fed's printing press,
Therein lies a golden clue,
Dollar's demise will sing the blues.

A note to hobbits lurking near,
the mighty oak will bring good cheer.
But forever a lurker do not be,
For with your post so grows this tree.

Minds are welcome, both great and small,
With each discussion we avert a great fall.
Our choice is made, the pathway clear,
It is gold, not paper, that is most dear.

Should one trust in any dollar?
It's only paper, even changes color.
A little gold, a little bread,
With these we shall keep our family fed.

Some may chose to chase paper dreams,
perhaps follow Wall St schemes.
At the fork emerged two trails,
Easy is the one with golden rail.

Five years young, but wisdom of the ages,
Around this oak, sits magi and sages.
A salute to all at USAGOLD,
Blessings to all as gold's story unfolds.

Operative

(09/19/2003; 16:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108970)

*** 389.10 ***

Gandalf, please forgive, Sir Socrates has already taken the 390.10, if you would be kind enough to allow me to revise my entry to 389.10 instead. sorry.

Operative

(09/19/2003; 16:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108971)

A Golden Celebration

Leaving for the weekend to attend the 50th wedding anniversay of my wifes parents. Another 'good as gold' story but will have to save for another time. A happy golden weekend to all.

Paper Avalanche

(09/19/2003; 16:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108972)

@ BB

Anything below 400 tons / year will have gold limit up on Monday IMO. Also, please note the startling "coincidence" of the new agreement's timimg with the release of the gold ETF in a few weeks on the LSE and NYSE. What better way to spark demand amongst the herd to move their paper dollars into the ETF than a nice spike next week to get the real bull market in gold underway.

Just some thoughts.

Take care.

PA

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 17:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108973)

After Hours

Well now, there were some very hefty block trades in the after hours in the gold shares. I don't know how it will play out next week but should be interesting anyway. Maybe the "gold rush" in shares will carry over into the physical trading session when it opens on Sunday night and into the New York trading action. We will likely get some word on the WA extension by then so who knows. But the gold shares just went bonkers in late trade.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

R Powell

(09/19/2003; 17:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108974)

********* The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes *********

Determining bull and/or bear markets is not rocket science, it requires examining any simple price chart over whatever time period one deems sufficient for analysis. However, the time issue judgment, perforce, requires a subjective decision. If a rising price over a time period long enough to be measured not only in months but in years constitutes enough time, then, indeed, we are witnessing a bull market. A quick review of price charts will confirm this. Now, the question of LONG-TERM or not brings us back to that subjective decision involving time.

My opinion is that a steadily rising price showing higher highs and higher lows over any reasonable period of time, certainly any time measured in days, months and years, constitutes a bull market.

Many and varied are the underlying causes of this baby bull. Some of these bullish influences, such as currency depreciation or monetary inflation, have been building for years and are well entrenched in our economic system. Others, such as the end of the gold carry trade due to changing interest rates, are relatively recent developments. Some POG influencing factors seem more prominent at times, such as the inverse relationship between the dollar's strength and the POG, than at others. Some, such as the XAU and the HUI indexes may be both price moving influences and indicators which now begs the question of whether indicators merely measure price trends or also influence the same. Market analysis (predictions) whether technical or fundamental in nature, must also be added to the puzzle. Some of these price influencing causes are readily apparent, others may be less so. Perhaps all these have one underlying common trait which may lead us to the answer of whether or not our gold bull has staying power - that is LONG-TERM bullish trending power.

What then is the common trait? It is exactly that which determines the price! It is investor sentiment. The basic essence of any bull market is merely more buying interest than selling- regardless, but not in spite of, all other factors. The path of least resistence for the POG now appears upward. This change of investor sentiment over these last few years is directly or indirectly the result of a variety of economic issues which are not likely to be altered quickly. Thus, it is the opinion of this observer that not only is gold well entrenched as a bull (uptrending) market but also one that will evolve over a good length of time.

Federal_Reserves

(09/19/2003; 17:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108975)

1 Trillion in government and trade deficits

The twin towers of debt and default vaulted over an unstable base of world trade which itself is swamped in currency manipulations.

What's left to to trust in these uncertain times? Paper?

I think not.

Smeagol

(09/19/2003; 17:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108976)

***** A Silver Precious? YES! *****

!! We gets a Silver Precious for our guess? !! Even if our guess is wrong? !!! O happy day!! We asks, who could resist a Silver Precious for aught but a guess, good or bad. The Kings of these Oaken Table Halls is so very generous! Come, all you lurkers and sneakers, GUESS FOR A PRECIOUS, YESS!!!

-------

I wondered why Gollum so pleased with himself today, and now I know why! You know, he probably never saw past the 'guess the price of "It"' part. You have made his day!

F. Baggins

Goldbug 1

(09/19/2003; 17:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108977)

$$$$379.30$$$$

Dining at this Mighty Table of Yore,
I was trying to fathom the score,
That Greenspan won't win,
When he puts on a spin,
and ends ass up on the floor!

And�ril

(09/19/2003; 17:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108978)

Paper Avalanche question

Can you stand behind your expressed thoughts?

The Limit Up you anticipate for Monday is a market phenomenon which applies uniquely to the PAPER side of the gold market.

A premature revisitation of the Gold Agreement, if any is presented, would be for a SOLE purpose of sending a new clearer message. A message with a PURPOSE.

Are you imagining a message and a purpose which would precipitate cause for Limit Up celebrations of PAPER gold?

Clink!

(09/19/2003; 18:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108979)

@Goldbug 1

Five !

And�ril

(09/19/2003; 18:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108980)

fever1 feedback

_Misplacing Modern Monetary Mayhem_

The Mises crooning today of schism
betwixt capital- and social-ism
is an argument blunted
by a lifespan too stunted
to make fine points with anachronism

Caradoc

(09/19/2003; 18:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108981)

$$$412$$$

I continue to maintain that gold is going to $3,640. $412 is just a mile-marker on that road.

Caradoc

Mr. Bill

(09/19/2003; 18:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108982)

@Paper Avalanche (09/19/03; 15:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 108967)

I have a hunch that your are probably wrong about being probably wrong about your hunch.

Boilermaker

(09/19/2003; 18:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108983)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

The 20th century saw gold gradually relegated to a barbarous relic in the Western World's approach to money and banking. Gold, the tried and proven material that has formed the foundation of successful cultures and economies for 5000 years, has been cast aside by the power structures that refused to abide by its unwavering demand for obedience. The Western World over the past century has strayed perilously far from the gold trail and finds itself on a course into the economic shoals of no return. This fact is evidenced by the ever-increasing need for central bank interventions to keep the system from collapsing into chaos.

The leader of this group of wayward mariners is the USA, who, since WW2, has turned its rightful leadership role into ever expanding dollar hegemony. Free markets in financial instruments are a thing of the past. Now we see "preemptive war" as an extension of this policy.

What is most troubling is that no one in a position of power in the US is sounding the alarm even though it is likely that some of them must be aware of the dangers of the current course. The ship "US$" is losing power, taking on water, heading into a storm and yet the captain "stays the course" while the passengers party in the casino. The current "recovery" is so fragile that no one in power can even suggest that we must head for port because the passengers might panic and make a rush to the lifeboats. So we cruise merrily along ever more slowly and gradually sinking in an ocean of debt.

The builders of the ship "Euro" recognized the troubled waters and rocky shoals that lie ahead for the US$ and have set their ship on a different course. The Euro is sailing towards an old destination; a place where gold remains the ultimate store of value. It is sailing back to the past to a time where the financial ledgers of nations were transacted in gold and not with the hollow promises of paper. A place where gold will again become the lifeblood of international commerce. The Euro looks to be a clumsy vessel but it likely will become the flagship of the West.

A new bull market for gold? Absolutely, if the measuring stick is the stuff called the US$. An ocean of dollars will be chasing a pot-full of gold. As the pot empties the
remainder will become ever more sought. Gold will be the time-tested financial lifeboat for all that wish to survive the sinking of the US$. Today, even those of modest means can afford a very seaworthy lifeboat of gold. However, when the US$ is slipping beneath the waves be assured that the price of lifeboats will be beyond the means of most.

The 21st century must see a reversal of the course of Western money and banking. The long enjoyed cruise of the US$ is steaming towards a storm-tossed rocky shore. In this year of 2003 only a few are aware of the terminal condition of the US$, perhaps one out of ten thousand. No one in power will warn us. The media will not warn us. Think what will happen to the gold market when 1% and then 10% and then 50% of the population see the reality that we know is coming. Demand for gold will increase at least a thousand times. The supply will be increasing at its historical rate of about 2% per year. The rate of growth in the supply of gold is what makes it the stabilizer in a world otherwise doomed by the fiat excesses of our political leaders. No contest, we're in a golden bull market.

Good weekend to all,
Boilermaker

Toolie

(09/19/2003; 19:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108984)

fever1-feedback

I had not seen that excerpt from Mises before. I will share it. Thank you.
It leaves me more secure in the thought that; once a manufacturing economy is again able to provide opportunity me, I'll not have to take advantage of it.

silvercollector

(09/19/2003; 20:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108985)

Red Alert !

@ BB

Yes, something is afoot. Most of the shares made a sheer vertical up in the last couple minutes today. Problem is several made a sheer vertical down.

Something is going down, perhaps this weekend.

Sheer up: Kinross, Glamis, Wheaton River

Sheer down: Goldcorp, Barrick, Meridian

This is important, there was definitely late day news. What is happening???????????????

silvercollector

(09/19/2003; 20:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108986)

Red Alert!

Please read G-E post at 22:14.

Looks like 'country controls' are afoot!

silvercollector

(09/19/2003; 21:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108987)

BB, please confirm

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlsnip:

""The Swiss and the UK have used up their interests (gold) but if you get a lot of new entrants, like the Eastern Europeans, the rise could be bigger," said the official, who had first-hand knowledge of the central bankers' market survey ahead of Saturday's talks on a renewed five-year pact. "The United States may not choose to sign (a new deal) because they don't want to sell," the official added"

Swiss & England are done, we await Germany?
Was the US a signatory on the first agreement? I believe no so why would the statement "..The United States may not choose to sign (a new deal) because they don't want to sell..." have much significance? That is to say, is the US a player in any "WA" agreement, past, present or future?

Thanks

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 21:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108988)

@Silvercollector

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030919/group_gold_2.html
Please excuse the hurried post here as it's off the top of my head and from memory (don't fret - I don't have Alzheimers quite yet). I just got in from the gym and am still going over lotsa info that has filled my "in box" from several contacts and friends on the market action today. So if I don't come across clear and concise or don't completely address your question please excuse my response.

First of all, the US has stated that they would not sell any gold period. In fact Congress had voted on the issue a few years ago preventing the sale of US gold during a movement that proposed that the US sell some of it's holdings as part of an IMF plan to help bail out some countries in crisis (Mexico was one at the time I believe). Anyway, what happened in the end was that these countries were allowed to have their gold holdings valued at the market value and received increased IMF loans instead. In short the US is not a party to or has any need to be a party to the WA plain and simple. The US simply will not sell any gold holdings (except through the US Mint's Gold Eagle program apparently). BTW, the quote you cited is from Reuters (see link above).

As far as something being "afoot" � yes indeed. Today was "Quadruple Witching" day. It used to be "Triple Witching" but now many stocks have options tied to them plus we are near "end of quarter" so there is a lot of "window dressing" with several hedge funds, mutual funds, and large specs locking in profits and reallocating funds. Notice that CDE went down hard today but had impressive gains in the last few sessions. As a matter of disclosure I do own only three gold stocks now as I took profits on a few for a number of reasons (political risk, valuation, Forex, cost of production, reserve analysis, etc.). The three that I still own are GG, GLG, and MDG. That said, I still have my physical "portfolio insurance" position intact and will not sell unless absolutely necessary which might be never (as Warren Buffett says about the reason for holding an asset, in this case for me it's pure financial insurance).

During the last minutes of trade during the open session for gold trading the news had not been released. After the gold pits had already closed the WA announcement was made and that led to a scramble for gold stocks since only the big institutional boyz can play the NY Access market that is thinly traded and essentially meaningless for us small fry. Anyway, the after market had strong gains for the golds (even the ones you said were "sheer down". I will give you some to look at after this post � hold on.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 21:51:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108989)

@silvercollector

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=e&s=GG,+MDG,+ABX
See the link for the afterhours results of the three stocks you have questioned. I give you this site you can "bookmark" for future reference as the others can be a little more confusing and this one is simpler and to the point. The others like Island and Knight you can find volume and outstanding bids, etc. But this one should fit your needs I would think. Notice that those shares "sheer down" recovered nicely - even ABX which did very well in spite of my dislike of their hedge policy (don't get me wrong I have a lot of friends who work for the mega-hedgers and they are good to work for, I just take exception to their hedging policies as being destructive).

Indeed, something is "afoot" but I doubt it is anything nefarious but a hell of a lot of reallocation and repositioning to make the books "look" more impressive than they really are. Much was simply selling one gold company stock for another to "impress" clients. In other words there was a lot of "window dressing" going on today, but precious metals are still firmly entrenched in a long term Bull Market with much more to come as the G7 tussle over the "competitive currency devaluation" issues (aka "Currency War").

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 22:09:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108990)

Gold Futures Jump to a Seven-Year Closing High on Declines for the Dollar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html
Snippit:

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to their highest closing price in almost seven years as the dollar fell against the euro and yen, making the dollar-priced metal cheaper for buyers in Europe and Japan. Gold prices have jumped 12 percent since mid-July, boosted partly by declines in the U.S. currency. The dollar fell to its lowest in more than two years against the yen today and dropped for a second time this week against the euro. ``The gold market is settling into a bit of a dollar- watching phase,'' said Bernard Hunter, director of precious- metals marketing for the Bank of Nova Scotia's ScotiaMocatta unit. The ``dramatic'' decline against the yen helped buoy the metal today, he said. The dollar fell against the yen after a Group of Seven official said the organization will call on other countries to let the market set foreign-exchange rates. The Bank of Japan sold a record 9.03 trillion yen this year through July to boost exports.

Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its 2003 gold price forecast by 2.9 percent to $360 an ounce, analyst Michael Jalonen said in a note today, citing declines in the dollar, expectations of accelerating inflation and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate at a 45-year low. ``More positive drivers, including declining mine supply, stable central bank sales'' contributed to the increased forecast, Jalonen said. Merrill raised its 2004 gold forecast 3.5 percent to $388 an ounce and increased the 2005 outlook by 1.4 percent to $365, he said.

European central bankers attending the International Monetary Fund meeting this weekend in Dubai may discuss renewing a five-year agreement to limit sales of bullion from their reserves. Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said on Tuesday he probably would urge fellow bankers to consider renewing the agreement in discussions at the meeting. ``The market is looking for some kind of direction that will suggest that the agreement will be extended,'' Hunter said. ``The expectation is that there'll be more participants. That will almost by necessity require an increase'' in the annual sales limit.

Black Blade: This week the IMF said that the US dollar will fall sharply because of the outrageous size of the current account and budget deficits, and that economic recovery really is more questionable than many are letting on. The Federal Reserve this week left rates unchanged with a bias toward "deflation" � translation: The Fed will fire up the printing presses like there's no tomorrow to spur on inflation. The trade deficit last month is on pace for an all time record based on the latest data released this week. GFMS even became bullish on gold even with a few jabs but still over all quite bullish. There's more of course but the news has been entirely positive for precious metals and absolutely bearish for the dollar. In short � the stage is set so obviously set in favor for a major long term gold and silver Bull Market rally only an absolute moron would miss out on this once in a life time opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

Paper Avalanche

(09/19/2003; 22:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108991)

@ Andruil - Addressing questions

Greetings sir Andruil! You ask some intriguing questions that have caused me to think about my previous assertions in greater detail. Here are my replies to each question:

"Can you stand behind your expressed thoughts?

The Limit Up you anticipate for Monday is a market phenomenon which applies uniquely to the PAPER side of the gold market.

A premature revisitation of the Gold Agreement, if any is presented, would be for a SOLE purpose of sending a new clearer message. A message with a PURPOSE.

Are you imagining a message and a purpose which would precipitate cause for Limit Up celebrations of PAPER gold?"

PA - Agreed. The "limit up" is a function of the paper market that was put in place to serve as one of many market control (manipulation) measures. Margin requirements are a similar control. However, while gold will eventually be valued relative to the total number of ounces that you HAVE (not the paper value of said ounces - once the new "wealth asset" role for gold becomes the new monetary paradigm), the metric (by which our progress to that point will be measured) is dollars. To that end I find the dollar "price" of gold a convenient barometer of how close we are to the inevitable outcome of the battle between paper and physical gold.

Regarding your position that the statement from the IMF / CB's in Dubai must communicate a specific purpose, I would respectfully disagree that this is either a requirement (self imposed or otherwise) or an intended goal of those who will be issuing said statement this weekend. I would suggest that just the opposite is the intent of those gathering in Dubai as we speak. I have yet to read where a central bank has sought to communicate it's future intentions by stating an end goal (purpose) and the means by which it intends to reach said goal or purpose. Rather, it is my experience that central banks or other monetary authorities try to do the exact opposite by being cryptic and ambiguous. If I remember correctly in 1999 (I was just starting to explore the opportunity in gold at that time and may not be accurate in my recollection) it took a number of weeks or months and continual debate between economists, gold bugs and others to accurately discern the meaning and impact of the Washington Agreement.

My assertion that the paper markets would limit up on Monday if the agreed upon amount of CB gold sales should be less than the original WA is based on the following:

1. The expectation has been set by TPTB this week that any new agreement will definitely be 400+ tons/yr. Given that most "financial professionals" mindlessly follow the propoganda spewed by Wall Street, if the actual provisions of the new agreement should not meet set expectations it may cause a severe shift of positions by traders trying to immediately adjust their long or short positions relative to the anticipated supply / demand impact of an agreement that specified less than 400 tons/yr.

2. Logic would suggest (to me anyway) that if the original WA resulted in the spike in POG that immediately followed in 1999, that any similar announcement that specifies a lesser amount of tonnage / yr would have a correspondingly similar impact (i.e. 350 tons/yr = $425 by Halloween, 200 tons/yr = $500 by Halloween, no future CB sales = $1,000 by Halloween).

As always, I may be wrong.

Have an enjoyable weekend!

With a Friday night's worth of beer in me, PA

Black Blade

(09/19/2003; 23:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108992)

Real Rates and Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/hamilton092003.html
Snippit:

The longer that real rates remain negative, and the deeper that they plunge into negative territory, the longer and more powerful our gold bull today is going to grow. Great Bulls in gold voraciously feed off of negative real interest rates, and the pickings today for our gold bull to feast upon and grow mighty are abundant thanks to the government and the Fed. Zooming into a more tactical scale of only a few years or so, the powerful relationship between the gold bull and the negative real-rate environment is even more apparent. This gold bull began when real rates merely threatened to plunge negative, and every day that they remain negative our gold bull is growing in strength and power.

Black Blade: Interesting read. I have tackled this issue a number of times in the past and is yet another reason to get into gold or at the very least have a sufficient "portfolio insurance" position as the financial storm rages on. I still continue to watch the CNBC carnival barkers and the buffoonish Kudlow and Cramer for entertainment purposes, but for a more realistic view I watch Webfn.com (on the internet) for a more realistic market view � they even treat gold seriously with serious analysts and market watchers. Still nominal rates are almost zero and "real rates" are firmly negative as "real" inflation is marching higher. This is exceptionally bullish for gold and silver. I had considered revisiting this issue over the last couple of days in the DMR but there has been so much breaking news that I had put it aside. But for a good refresher you can brush up with a read of Hamilton's piece tonight.

Yukon

(09/19/2003; 23:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108993)

******* The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes. *******

******* The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes. *******

Since gold hit its low of $252 in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to the present price ($375-380 range). This significant rise absolutely qualifies as a bull market and IMO, as I hope the facts will demonstrate, portends a LONG-TERM move in gold that will ultimately progress to a four digit price in USD, and perhaps even higher.

To start off with, for clarity, I believe that when looking at any market, both the fundamental picture as well as the technical one become paramount in assessing the true nature of what lies on the horizon while at the same time, illuminating the terrain within which we presently traverse allowing for a deeper penetrating view. In this day and age of information transcending virtually limitless boundaries, markets become more prone to the effects of this ever growing phenomenon. As such, 24 hour a day trading in most markets has become the norm. While we are sleeping here in New York for example, we might be shocked when we wake up to find some event inherent to fundamental analysis has taken place while the Hong Kong and Sydney markets were open (e.g. a major consortium of Asian or Islamic banks have stated that they are increasing there central bank holdings of gold by an appreciable tonnage effective immediately; thereby vastly increasing the demand placed on that side of the equation).

Just as important, however, is the possibility that during that same nap, an event occurs that greatly impacts the technical analysis of a market. While often we make investments based on objective fundamental market data, there is IMO an increasing number of market participants making wagers and taking positions based on price chart formations which can greatly impact and/or exaggerate the underlying price action of any particular stock, commodity or currency. Those of us who may or may not own shares in RGLD can attest to the fact that when a trend-line is broken, as recently occurred, the results can sometimes be ugly even though the fundamental picture for the company and its product was and is as solid as ever.

Looking then at gold from both perspectives, the potential for the recent up-move to be just the beginning of a long-term trend is quite positive. Let us then explore the landscape and see if objectively we can make a case to affirm the bull is loose from both technical and fundamental views.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
(Supply vs. demand)

Supply:

1. Mine supply is not meeting current demand, nor has been for many years. With the 20 year bear-market ending, mining companies are only recently seriously looking at increasing production through new mining ventures. With falling gold prices the financial initiative to undertake new exploration was diminished. However, undertaking new projects today has become much more difficult due to increased vigilance on environmental impacts. This coupled with overall increases in the time to bring a mine up to production speed and be profitable are serious deterrents to new supply. Of late, the trend I am seeing appears to be one more about consolidation through mergers and acquisitions than of outright mining exploration, though there are many quality projects in the pipeline from both junior mining companies as well as the majors. How soon they come online and with how much gold is the big unknown.

2. The difference between what is mined and what the market demands is made up primarily by four key components:

1. Central bank official sales,
2. Mining companies selling forward future production,
3. Scrap sales, and
4. Leasing by central banks.

With respect to official sales, the big question on many minds is will the Washington Agreement be renewed. I think that it will. My belief here is that the signatories to the Accord are mostly in the European Union and as such, with there mark-to-market policy on gold reserves, and there desire to expand the Euro currency base in part as a percentage of gold reserves, then clearly a higher gold price would allow for meeting currency objectives. In reading Another/FOA here at USA Gold, I will assume all have digested the political and monetary ramifications of Euro introduction and probable/possible corresponding gold market reactions, some of which have already come to light.

Clearly, as gold moves higher in price, one of the nice hitches to its function is that mining companies are decreasing forward sales of production and as such, are decreasing hedges to lower prices. While this activity in the past has been a source of supply to the market, it has recently become a source of demand as companies are buying back gold to close positions in the futures markets. This speaks volumes to me. If you know nothing about the gold markets this fact should stimulate some serious thought. Mining company executives are making the decision to position there companies for full participation in higher gold prices! If mining company executives don't have an idea of where their product's future price is heading then nobody does.

The fourth component of supply, leasing, is a much disputed item. Many prominent gold market analysts state that the amount leased out is actually much greater than official claims. Also, the IMF's own reporting guidelines allow for gold leased out to bullion banks to actually remain on the books of member nations as an asset even though the gold is in reality gone. As if that were not enough, the potential here for a firestorm in the market becomes increasingly uncomfortable (or satisfyingly tasty, depending on your diet (position)) as many unregulated derivative contracts are tied to gold and carry with them inherent risks above and beyond those stated above. And with the dollar amount involved in derivatives (reported to be in the Trillions of USD), if this house of paper comes apart, rest assured the world will instantly become a very different place.

Demand:

Overview

As previously stated, decreasing forward sales by mining companies is a new source of demand. More important, however, are the world events going on around us and the clear reactions to them. Not only are actions occurring within our own boundaries, but clearly, across the globe situations are aligning themselves that will greatly impact the demand for gold- and by extension- the continued advance of gold prices. And as we all know; for every action there is a reaction. As the law of conservation of energy states: energy is never created nor destroyed but can be converted (!) from one form to another.

Before looking at the principal events that will shape future demand on gold in all its forms (physical and paper), a word on the historical role gold has played is in order. For over 5000 years gold has been sought after for its ability to satisfy the key elements of acting as money (portable, divisible, malleable, virtually indestructible and maintaining a steady value- not to say anything about its natural allure of beauty). As the demand rose for a guaranteed fineness and purity along with a uniform design of using gold as money, States and governments entered into the process of providing coinage for commerce. As governments and banking evolved, they began the issuing of paper currencies backed with specie on deposit and receivable on demand. With that, the realization arose that with a little adjustment; less gold could be used to provide the same backing for a stated amount of currency by merely devaluing the paper against gold. This was in fact the same type of abuse of power that earlier governments had established through the debasement process of their coins, (i.e. diluting the gold with more alloys while maintaining the stated amount of value on the coin; or by outright clipping). This process continued all the way up to the Great Depression when gold backing, gold certificates and specie were outlawed and all world governments essentially went off the gold standard- which effectively robbed all citizens of their gold.

Throughout the development and civilization of mankind gold always provided a kind of insurance due to the fact that physical gold is the only asset that is not simultaneously someone else's liability (i.e. no one else needs to do or perform anything to give your gold its value). Further, it is one of only a few assets that are negatively correlated to paper assets. This means as the stock, bond and USD currency markets go down; gold (and other precious metals and tangibles) tend to rise up. Thus, having physical gold holdings in your portfolio of investments provides a level of diversification and protection that, IMO, no one should be without. These facts were not lost on U.S. citizens and finally in the mid 1970's, gold once again became available for purchase. Since that time, many prudent investment advisors and portfolio analysts have recommended a portion of between 5 and 20% of ones funds available for investment be allocated to precious metals (primarily gold).

Moving onto the chief elements affecting gold demand, I will list those measures that lend the most credence for supporting the belief of a long-term bull market in gold. In no particular order they are:

1. Demand for USD (U.S. dollars, a.k.a. Federal Reserve Notes (FRN)). Since gold is priced in dollars, U.S. monetary policy has an indirect effect on the price of gold. While monetary policy is in part steered by internal (to the United States) and external stimuli, the execution of stated goals by the Treasury and President (e.g. strong dollar policy) is accomplished through the manipulation of interest rates by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in response to the different measurements of growth for the economy, and also through the use of the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund under direction of the President. (The harsh reality on monetary policy, however, is that since 1913 the Federal Reserve has had complete control and responsibility of setting monetary policy; not the Congress, as stipulated in the Constitution. The Fed performs its functions of influencing the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote its stated goals of moderate growth within an environment of steady prices and employment through the functions of open market operations, the discount rate and reserve requirements.) In addition, since by the Fed's own admission 2/3 of USD exist outside of the continental U.S. in both the form of U.S. Treasuries and Federal Reserve Notes, and since the IMF and World Bank have promoted the use of USD as an international reserve currency for central banks abroad- taking into account the events of 9/11/01 and the new war on terrorism- the task of successfully managing a nations currency against so many pitfalls becomes nothing short of progressive. As such, gold takes a portion of its cue from how well the USD is being supervised.

Certainly, vital statistics on a national level (personal, corporate and governmental) play a big part in determining the willingness of not only U.S. citizens, but perhaps more importantly, foreign governments and entities to hold their wealth in USD. When large, abnormal and unprecedented trends develop that all reflect negatively on the growth of the economy, the management of the currency, and in fact the soundness of the system of money creation (debt based vs. commodity based), smart investors look for alternatives. Along these lines, and in an unprecedented move, the IMF has stated that it will be speaking against the further accumulation of U.S. debt instruments by Asian banks (and if reading between the lines, all banks). Since the IMF must know that the U.S. is the wheel in the global economy, and that how things go in the U.S., so goes the rest of the world, this fact becomes very confusing and contradictory to their history of support to the dollar standard. Taking into account the fractional reserve banking system's well hidden secret of only creating money to pay principal, never any necessary additional funds created for the payment of interest, and you have the recipe for the slow but eventual takeover of a nation through bankruptcies, default and their corresponding perils. Is this the true nature of the IMF stance? Is there another global depression in the cards? Or is there another candidate that has been selected to overtake the U.S. as the hub of world commerce? Perhaps a nation with the largest population, standing military and cheap work force would fit the bill? Fortunately, there is the unencumbered beauty of gold.

History shows us that the deflationary environment of the 30's and the inflationary environment of the 70's and early 80's had beneficial effects on the valuation of gold as holders of USD liquidated some of their holdings in favor of gold. Presently, we have both Fed governors, as well as the Fed chairman, stating that they remain watchful of deflation and that they have a "printing press" and are not afraid to use it. So, no matter what the end result of the misguided U.S. monetary policy via the Fed gives us, gold will serve its purpose well as a money of stable (albeit increasing) value.

Further in the category of USD and its relationship to gold demand we have the continuation of relative stock market performance to take into consideration. When it stops performing (which may be any day now), history shows that people are increasingly more apt to take money out of the market and move into gold. Usually, the greater the drop in equities and/or bonds, the greater the number of market participants likely to convert some of their monies to gold. The jury is still out on how this will affect demand, but if the ESF starts losing its ability to prop the major indexes up, gold should be in a position of major accumulation. Already, as a product of how business is conducted within the markets and because much of the daily movements are a result of hedge fund, mutual fund, retirement fund and individual and corporate speculation, clearly, gold is benefiting as all these entities attempt to protect capital, lock in gains from other sectors, and gain exposure to what appears to be the beginning of a long-term bull market in gold.

Along the same lines with equities is the huge run up in the price of long-term U.S Treasury obligations (10yr note and 30yr bond) and their subsequent move off of the highs. It has been stated that a bull market in both bonds and gold cannot happen simultaneously as it would be a contradiction. Thinking about that, one can see the logic inherent within. Indeed, in our present environment of:
A. low interest rates on savings (which is actually negative when taking into account rises in the CPI),
B. rising long term rates (hampering consumers ability to refinance debts at lower rates and possibly remove cash to spend while simultaneously impairing future business spending on new equipment and infrastructure),
C. a stock market that is facing enormous overvaluation in the face of limited and decreasing profits,
D. the realization of accounting tricks and gimmicks promoted and utilized by the U.S. government and multiple U.S. corporations,
E. a bond market that seems to have topped out in price as more and more supply of bonds and notes of all maturities come to market to finance the record high deficit in the Federal government budget,
F. a USD that by all measures is overvalued and in excessive supply acting as a harbinger to the dollar based system of credit and commerce faltering under mal-investment, unsustainable consumption, an excess of bad debt on all levels, weakening financial institutions (ala Japan, China et al.), and a stagnant economy,
G. not to mention the enormous potential of home overvaluation and the attendant risks these all contain and how they can and are combining to influence consumer confidence;
it is easy to see that gold and its ability to provide safety is coming into fashion once again.

2. The demand placed on gold supply by the citizens of most all developed (and probably some underdeveloped) nations should at least remain constant. India's use of gold is well known. With the recent bombing there, reports have surfaced that gold purchases have been on the rise. Last year, Japan became a significant force with housewives reportedly buying significant amounts of gold upon hearing the news that the Japanese government was no longer going to guarantee bank deposits. The Japanese, noted for their high savings rates, could easily help usher in a new wave of price increases in gold with the next government decree on the questionable taxing of savings through negative interest rates or with the next round of defaults in investments for Japanese banks. However, there is great evidence to suggest that a much greater impact will be felt on current supplies than in the past when looking at the international scene. China has become a big factor in the gold equation primarily because of the sheer number of Chinese investors (1.2 billion citizens) who have the potential to drive prices vastly higher. With this comes the fact that many of China's banks have made bad loans that have ended in default. And with an estimated 1 trillion in their nation's banks, diversification becomes the easy intelligent move. Since China has opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange in October of 2002 and allowed its citizens private ownership in gold, the prospects (pun intended) for gold look excellent.

Not only has China's citizens been offered the opportunity to shift into gold, but the Chinese government has recently been reported to have doubled their holding to 500 tons. With China now having such a major impact on other nations, would it be unreasonable to assume they may try to further increase their holdings? IMO, not at all. In fact, since China's gold reserves currently sit at approximately 2% of their currency reserves, an increase would certainly be beneficial if China expects to become the dominant economic power in Asia. As such, with their holdings of gold at approximately one-twenty-fifth that of the U.S., France and Italy, the assumption that more conversions of currency holdings to gold could (and probably will) happen, clearly, are not out of the question.

3. The re-introduction of gold and silver currency in Islamic nations is just starting to take off. The gold Dinar and Silver Durham are precious metal specie coins of various quantities of metal. There are two silver versions and to date, two gold, with at least three more gold denominations scheduled. The gold Dinar has no currency value stamped on it and is intended to be used for trade settlement of accounts between the 57 Islamic nations and is to be valued at free-market prices. With Iran taking a prominent role in trying to convince other Islam nations to convert to its use, the potential here is enormous for demand placed on existing supplies.

While the war in Iraq is over, problems continue to plague U.S. forces. It has been reported that numerous terrorists have flocked to the area to combat U.S. led rebuilding efforts. Obviously, many Muslim nations, supporting the U.S. on the international scene with words, are certainly not happy with the U.S. ousting of the Hussein Regime, especially in light of the fact that it was done virtually alone and against U.N. support.
Since outright attacks on U.S. interests would be suicidal, perhaps the consensus of Islam is to strike at the USD. This would certainly go a long way towards hurting the U.S. were it really hurts, while at the same time, placating the citizens of the Muslim countries crying out for justice against the U.S./British led unprovoked attacks on Iraq. It is no secret that U.S. dominance is starting to spread its way throughout the Middle East and with it its ideals and way of life. Likewise, the resistance to this movement is possibly the beginnings of another war front for which the U.S. is ill prepared.

The increase in demand on an already strained supply of gold if the Islamic Dinar is utilized will be amazing. It is reported that the world's 57 Islamic countries spend about 40 billion dollars per year trading with each other. If the gold Dinar were used in trade settlement only within this sphere of nations, the implication would be up to 5000 tons of new demand per year. With gold supply from mining at approximately 2500 tons per year from the entire world, the bullishness of this very real possibility becomes nothing short of astonishing.

As none of the above situational factors in the USD will be remedied in a timely fashion, and the implications of China and Islam (along with India, Japan and whomever else) will only become greater potentials for huge increases in demand; coupled with the fact that supplies are limited and reportedly peaking out leading to less production; the future long-term trend of gold should continue to shine brightly-increasing in magnificence- while building on the present dawn!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

The scope of this essay is to argue objectively for the long-term appreciation in the gold price. As such, I will not bog the reader down with lengthy definitions of the many different indicators nor divulge into technical trading fundamentals. However, a brief mention of some identifying price patterns that frequently develop and repeat across all markets is in order because it is these types of patterns that traders big and small, hedge funds, and commercial traders use to help ascertain market direction. A picture is worth a thousand words, but in lieu of that, the following are solid definitions that should help get the points of each across.
1. Head and Shoulders: a classically bearish top formation typically traded by selling when prices drop below the "neck line"
2. Inverted Head and Shoulders: classically a bullish bottom formation traded by buying when prices rise above the "neckline". Both types are rarely formed symmetrically.
3. Narrow Sideways Channel: a period of market congestion where prices seem to be "trapped" in a trading range; traded by going long if prices rise out of the channel, or going short if prices drop out down through the channel.
4. The Pennant: sideways congestion that converges to a point; traded by going long if prices break up and out of the pennant, or by going short if prices break down and out of the pennant.
5. Descending Triangle: sideways pricing congestion that shows increasing selling pressure over time as market highs become successively lower. Generally, this formation is more bearish than bullish and typically results in lower prices breaking down and out of the triangle.
6. Ascending Triangle: sideways pricing congestion that shows increasing buying pressure over time as market lows become successively higher. This formation generally is more bullish than bearish, typically resulting in higher prices, with a break up and out of the triangle.
7. Bull Flags/ Bear Flags: mini sideways channels that are tilted down in the case of a bull flag, and up in the case of a bear flag. Flags usually develop during a pause in a trend and frequently lead to a continuation of the trend.
8. Inclining Wedge: pattern points up at an angle instead of converging to a point on the horizontal axis as in the case of the Ascending Triangle. This formation is generally considered to be quite bearish, and is usually traded by going short when prices break down and out of the wedge6F 5"��5�?�3��5��@5"�`3�<��3��05"��0"3��3� 5""�5,x$3��L5�f�5�f�3�u(5�j�3""��3��5"��BHe|�3� 5"�@3� 5�f�):3�u$3�u(5�j�5"""5""05"�5"�5"��u�;3|F`n`)�BD@$5"�@�3�--"TEXT3"��46�5�j�5""p3�'��

Yukon

(09/19/2003; 23:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108994)

******* The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes. *******.....Continued....

8. Inclining Wedge: pattern points up at an angle instead of converging to a point on the horizontal axis as in the case of the Ascending Triangle. This formation is generally considered to be quite bearish, and is usually traded by going short when prices break down and out of the wedge.
9. Declining Wedge: pattern points down at an angle instead of converging to a point on the horizontal axis as in the case of a Descending Triangle. Generally considered to be bullish and is usually traded by going long when prices break up and out of the wedge.
10. Tea Cup: pattern reveals Sideways Channel followed by a Declining Wedge with prices breaking out to previous Sideways Channel followed by new highs extending above previous sideways channel to a new high measured by adding the distance from the length from the first sideways channel to the bottom of the declining wedge, and adding that distance to the level of the first sideways channel as a probable goal. Typically bullish often with Inverted Head & Shoulders found within "base of tea cup".

With these simple patterns noted, one can then look at price charts of a desired market. Price charts cover different periods of time and there are also different types of charts (bar vs. candlestick). Each has its advantage while helping to confirm the data found in the others. The most common time frames used for price charts are daily movements, weekly movements and monthly movements each with their respective open, high, low and closing prices. There are, however, other time frames that range from the minute to the yearly.

Bullish Formation #1:
Since we are focused primarily on the long-term trend in this study, the monthly or yearly charts will be most helpful and will be the focus here. Looking at a monthly chart of Comex gold futures, one can easily see that the overall price pattern from the early seventies right straight through to today presents a formation resembling a giant declining wedge. The vertical portion of the triangle is formed by the price action leading up to the all-time high in late 1979. Striking a straight line across the tops of the proceeding successive highs creates the top side of the declining wedge while at the same time providing a visual guide of active areas of resistance. The bottom side of the wedge is found by striking a line connecting the all time lows with each other. This would be done by drawing a straight a line from recent low of mid 1999 backwards to the previous low in late 1984; which also nicely gives us a visual guide of where active areas of support lie. Any movement of price action breaking out and above the line drawn along the highs (resistance) is significant for higher prices. Likewise, a move below the line drawn along the lows (support) would signal lower prices.

As the above definition of a descending wedge states; this formation is generally considered to be reasonably bullish, and us is usually traded by going long when prices break up and out of the wedge. This is exactly what has happened recently with the move in gold prices back in Feb. �02. Since this trend line of resistance has been broken, gold has moved in an aggressive fashion up from a low in Feb of $283.20 to our present close today (September 19, 2003) of $382.90! This move of nearly $100/ounce in 19 months proves to be sustainable and credible in light of the evidence. There is also a way to measure for the potential goal of the present move. By measuring the distance from the bottom of the wedge ($252.50) to the top tip of the wedge ($875) and adding the difference between the two numbers (875 - 252.50 = 622.50) and adding this sum ($622.50) to the breakout point of the declining wedge (~$287) gives us the potential goal of (622.50 + 287 = 909.50) $909.50!

Bullish Formation #2:
The next shape that appears to me when looking at the long term chart is the formation of a tea cup. This can be seen by the narrow sideways channel displayed from late 1993 to late 1995. In early �96 the beginning of the "mini" declining wedge becomes visible as it makes a double bottom in 1999 and 2001. We are currently forming the upside to the "cup" and as we approach the $400 level, by the general definition above, we can expect a measured move to approximately the $525-550 level before market forces pull back and assess for future market direction.

Conclusion:

As of the close today in gold, with the continued events of our Iraq occupation not going well, with the dollar taking a hit vs. yen and Euro, and with the sideways channel movement in the stock market, the resumption of decline in the bond market and the persistent chatter of China (and behind the scenes, Islamic nations as well), the future really could not be brighter for a long-term up trend in gold. Our dollar denominated world of assets should have died back in the 70's when Nixon closed the gold redemption window. Since its resurrection at the time as a new world reserve currency, it has gained new legs to stand on. However, 30 years later, we now see the results of this "idea" and its obvious negative implications. Since it is my belief that the USD has in a very real sense replaced gold as a reserve asset, this situation is now making its effects known as the system of debt continues to multiply and spin out of control.

Gold supplies are so small today relative to the available paper to bid for it that as markets continue attempting to adjust to a state of equilibrium (that is tending to move in the directions they would under normal "un-stabilized" and "un-manipulated" conditions) the abnormal forces at work will serve to only exaggerate what would have been a normal correction. When the realization hits the major populations of the world that the dollar has seen better days, gold demand could be such that my highest technical analysis potential goal of $909.50 could well turn out to be the low of the year. Truly, as the forces acting on the management of the dollar appear to be in uncharted waters, the only solution is to protect yourself with what nature's God has provided. With this, we then become able to secure the blessings of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness to ourselves and our posterity.

May the dawning of the long-term bull market in gold help you navigate the storms on the sea of dollars.

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

Yukon

(09/19/2003; 23:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108995)

RE: contest entry

Please read message #108994 as a continuation of message #108993. Thanks and sorry. Apparently, I had too much text for the server to handle on one submission. Cheers and good weekend to all.

Yukemiester

Gandalf the White

(09/19/2003; 23:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108996)

WOWSERS, Sir Yukon !!!

I had no idea you were a man of so many words !
You must have had lots of time to think during those long winters that you could not dig in the GREAT WHITE NORTH !
I will now try to re-read that Entry !
Thanks
<;-)

slingshot

(09/20/2003; 00:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108998)

Midas Crusade

Fifth Anniversary Episode Sir Slingshot stood atop the castle wall and watched as the riders of the Green Flag with Cresant Moon and Swords, erected their encampment. He then went to his chamber.Retrieved his sword, sharpening stone and a chair and returned to the place from where he looked down. Sitting down in the chair,he began to sharpen his sword. The sun was warm and a gentle breeze blew across him. Sir Slingshot marveled as he slid the stone across the swords edge and the sunlight reflected off the polished metal.
For so much activity on the ground, it was quiet where he sat except for the chirping of small sparrows that found refuge in the castle heights. He laid the stone down and place his sword on his lap. He smiled as the small creatures hopped about searching for food. Soon the serenity overtook him and he fell asleep. In his slumber he began to dream. The images became life like. Five long years
of battles and strifes appeared in his mind. Visions of Knights came and went as the army of Goldbugs advanced along a road which seem to have no end. Finally, he was beset in a foreign place. Before him the army of the Dark Force. Both armies spread out to show themselves to each other and when the Goldbugs stretched out in lines, the Yell of "Free Gold" filled the air. It was then that the army of the Green Flag came forward and position themselves in the front ranks. From them came a sound not heard before
and in unison drew swords. A slight pause,and then these horsemen charged headlong into opposing foe.
I was awakened at that time by Sir M. K. Being startled I gabbed my sword and Sir M. K.and Gandalf,who was with him stepped back.
You sleep well, Sir Slingshot, said Sir M.K. Not well enough. Do you believe that dreams reveal the future? asking them both.
If it will ease your mind, tell us of your dream,Sir Slingshot.

Happy Fifth Anniversary, USAGOLD!

Druid

(09/20/2003; 00:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108999)

*******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes*******

Today has been an incredible day of posting here at this wonderous virtual castle. I certainly do not know first hand how exciting it must have been when ANOTHER & FOA were residing here at this magical place but man, I can tell you this, I have read every word posted today by the new bugs and the old bugs and I can feel the electricity running through the old bod. I have been studying this gold market going on four years now and have read and continue to read a tremendous amount of technical, fundamental and political commentary and data that I don't think that I could add much more to what has already been posted and discussed. So, with that being said, I KNOW we are in a bull market because these people at http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/my need to have a summit about the "future of money." They could save a lot of "money" by pointing and clicking there way over to www.USAGOLD.com and sitting in on a session. MK could rent, oh we don't need to be too fancy here, a barn, gather the masters around the old oak table and commence with the UNDERSTANDING of what "MONEY" is and is not! Bugs and buggettes(I think), for these people to have a summit about "money" tells me that we are in the midst of change of "BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS." Dig in because the uncertainity is off the charts. We have been firing off dollars in a linear fashion(rifle) for quite some time now and the rest of the world might send those dollars back anytime now in a geometric fashion(machine gun)which could make hiding inflation a little more difficult. My prediction for the illusionary price is $$$396.25$$$ Good luck all.

Goldendome

(09/20/2003; 00:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109000)

***New Bull Market in Gold ---Yes!****

The accelerating level of fiat paper inflation worldwide is assuring it! Continual building of higher future entitlements assures an eventual crackup in the system, as deficits will be forced to soar into the trillions per year perhaps to cover them (SSI, Medicare, Pensions). Preceding this at any time now, we could see the rug pulled out from under the dollar, as we presure other nations to revalue currencies higher, that would cause an immediate writedown of their dollar holdings. If they sell even 5% of dollar holdings for any reason at all, the remainder will be worth 30% less immediately; gold will soar. By taking a long term view- technicals are irrelevent; fundamentals will drive the market.

GratefulForGold

(09/20/2003; 01:37:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109001)

As an avid reader/lurker and infrequent poster, I am compelled to say something that will probably upset most of you here.

I have been away and am now catching up on several days' posts. I have also been doing the same on a sister forum. Something has struck me that I find uncomfortable and relatively "urgent" in my mind.

The other forum has had a relatively new poster (whose name starts with "B") that has gone out of his way to educate the newcomers. Everything he posts is probably geared to a newcomer and educating the public who doesn't know about the precious metals market. He has been a great energy boost to that forum, IMO. Unfortunately, most of that forum relates to stocks, not physical ownership.

After "catching up" on that forum, I came here to do the same. This is the premiere site for pro-physical ownership and since I primarily believe in ownership of physical gold and silver, rather that paper representations, I avidly return to this site.

How do I say this? Well, guys...if I were one of the probably hundreds if not thousands of "lurkers" seeking to figure out what the hell to do with my resources (and fairly, if not totally, ignorant about precious metals), I don't think I would find out much useable information on this site. To me, this is a great pity and lost opportunity to influence this great changing tide in public opinion!

From reading here daily, I hope I know the dedication and commitment that each of you feels and exhibits. I guess I am asking you to consider that this forum is read by MANY who know nothing about PMs and physical ownership. A little time spent going over the basics and helping those who don't know all that you do would probably be a great gift! Surely, MK and those who help sponsor this site would appreciate some more basic, educational posts regarding the immense value and necessity of owning physical gold (and silver).

Please don't misunderstand me. Black Blade is an excellent example of keeping it simple and understandable. While I appreciate the arcane (to read, I can't contribute), I don't think that a total diet of it will help the great numbers of people who are RIGHT NOW reading this forum looking for guidance and direction! Please, go back in your memories and find what helped you get on the Trail! (and don't just tell someone to go read the A/FOA archives). It's really very simple and needs to be repeated (in various ways) often, if we are going to do a public service.

I think the "feeling" of this forum is like a private club. That's well and good, and offers much to those who belong. Brothers and sisters who come together and understand each other. I am merely suggesting that you are read by MANY and are not some obscure little group...and the "many" might benefit from your basic knowledge that you have tucked away and forgotten. Just haul it out and dust it off.

You'll be doing a world of good to your fellow men/women!

Sorry if this is rambling and poorly written. I'm not going to ry to edit, just speak my heart. I hope you take it with the intent it's written.

slingshot

(09/20/2003; 02:17:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109002)

Grateful for Gold

I concur. No your post is not a negative but one of concern. I have beaten around the bush, encouraging lurkers to post as I am not the greatest writer. I am not the greatest thinker. But I am Here. I read and may not fully understand. I read more. This is not a private club and I am not intimadated by those whose knowledge is greater. You can not learn from a dummy. So I travel and try to understand and learn from those more versed. If one wants
stability or security, he must strive for it.
Slingshot-------------<>

Shanti

(09/20/2003; 03:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109003)

$$$$$$$388.8$$$$$$$

Congratulations to the wide minded motivaters at the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore.

As the journey passes day by day, hills are getting higher and gaining altitude. Still in the distance seeing the mountains approaching. The attributes to climb the high mountains doesn't seem of great importance now, but they will definitly. Be sure having the right attributes to finish the journey. Be prepared.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

Belgian

(09/20/2003; 04:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109004)

@ Aquarian : late answer

The US$ * IS * declining and will keep declining. Declining in exchange rate, that is. The dollar buys less foreign currency AND GOLD ! But for the time being your Big Mac remains at the same price and indicates that the dollar is NOT YET declining in purchasing power. Note the BIG difference between "exchange rate" and " purchasing power".

A dollar-collapse, means that the decline in dollar-exchange-rate is such that it leads to a substantial/alarming decline in dollar-purchasing-power, wich has very different consequences !

The above process goes through different stages and the stockmarket(s) will react differently on each stage in the process of dollar-decline-collapse. Those who are holding the detoriating dollar will search for alternatives to compensate for dollar-loss or ultimately flight from the dollar and run to any reasonable exit.

Higher stockprices do initially compensate for a dollar decline. But the (US) stockmarket is already highly over-valued and therefor a not so safe exit.
Once it becomes clear the the decline in dollar-exchange-rate (against ALL currencies) is going much furrther than anticipated AND dollar-price-inflation will certainly go "HYPER",...stocks, bonds will collapse and decline in price.

Now it is up to you to decide to what degree the US$ will simply decline, and-or, if the dollar will collapse and cause worldwide hyper-price-inflation.

A gentle, orderly dollar decline, might be compensated by a relative stable stockmarket, if there are prospects for a turnaround in the global economy. This scenario is presented by the financial media, at present.

If the global economy does NOT give evidence of standing up and walk...the US (all) stockmarkets will crash, together with the dollar and GOLD goes ballistic !

One of the main problems today, is the *mis-leading* force of the financial media ! They succeeded in setting up a virtual financial gambling world. That's why I call them "the brotherhood". How can any simple soul judge/assess the intrinsic real value of ALL things with such a massive power of deceptive-information ?

We concentrate, here, on the planet's reserve currency, the US$, and try to find out where this ever expanding currency stands in its evolution. Because we strongly suspect that this global currency is at the end of its lifetime. Debtpaper (bonds), stocks, tangibles and GOLD will evolve against this main background.

The purchasing power (Big Mac's price) of the dollar has been declining steadily for the past 70 years and started declining faster 30 years ago and at present it "should" already have collapsed and replaced ! But this is "theory" and not confirmed in practice, YET !
The dollar's exchange rate can fluctuate (float), causing relative little damage for a very long time. I think w've come to a point, in this globalizing world, that the "floating" of the dollar is becoming much more damaging/disturbing/unbalancing and that the room for maneuvering is shrinking. The US$ grew too big !

I'll leave it there...and BTW, your question was far from being idiotic, but on the contrary being "the" most important/urgent question that one can possibly think off.

PS : I'm afraid that all stockmarkets (Las Vegas) will remain a very dangerous place for genuine "investors" for at least another decade !? The smart gamblers will have to operate in a growing cosmos of DEBT asteroids, for some considerable time ! I strongly doubt that they will be "net" winners at the end of the race ? Waste of precious time-efforts and profits. Accumulate what is "undervalued" in your own assessment and leave all talk to ...talkers.

Many thanks, Aquarian, for joining the goldpack.

silvercollector

(09/20/2003; 04:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109005)

Thanks buddy.

Have a golden week-end.

silvercollector

(09/20/2003; 05:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109006)

Since it's the weekend I hope I can drift slightly off topic........

Here's an email from a buddy yesterday.....

Accounts Receivable Tax

Building Permit Tax

Capital Gains Tax

CDL license Tax

Cigarette Tax

Corporate Income Tax

Court Fines (indirect taxes)

Dog License Tax

Federal Income Tax

Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)

Fishing License Tax

Food License Tax

Fuel permit tax
Gasoline Tax (42 cents per gallon)

Hunting License Tax Inheritance Tax

Interest expense (tax on the money)

Inventory tax

IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)

IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)

Liquor Tax

Local Income Tax

Luxury Taxes

Marriage License Tax

Medicare Tax Property Tax

Real Estate Tax

Septic Permit Tax

Service Charge Taxes

Social Security Tax

Road Usage Taxes (Truckers)

Sales Taxes

Recreational Vehicle Tax

Road Toll Booth Taxes

School Tax State Income Tax

State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)

Telephone federal excise tax

Telephone federal universal service fee tax

Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes

Telephone minimum usage surcharge tax

Telephone recurring and non-recurring charges tax

Telephone state and local tax

Telephone usage charge tax

Toll Bridge Taxes

Toll Tunnel Taxes

Traffic Fines (indirect taxation)

Trailer registration tax

Utility Taxes Vehicle License Registration Tax

Vehicle Sales Tax

Watercraft registration Tax

Well Permit Tax

Workers Compensation Tax

COMMENT: Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago and our nation was the
most prosperous in the world, had absolutely no national debt, had the
largest middle class in the world and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What the hell happened?

Dollar Bill

(09/20/2003; 06:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109007)

*>*............+

Greetings Duke M.Kosares, Wizard Gandolf the White,
Knights and Ladies. At this Great Oaken Table of Yore, many a feast has been eaten using our golden utensils. But if the forks were missing, the food would still be eaten.
In traveling the countryside, I came upon ancient folk who lived through the last collapse of the coinage of the realm.
They told of tales of meat pies and soup. Canned meat and vegatables provided free by the govt. and how some fair and not so fair maidens were known for the excellence of thier meat pies.
Knights, what am I talking about this for?
Underneath the vast economy among nations, is the daily hunger of the people. Most nations cannot feed thier people.
During the fabled Irish famine, all commerce fell while people starved. Whole villages starved to death, a couple million perhaps. The prospect of worldwide starvation looms as perhaps the core inspiration of why the central bankers do what they do at this time.
The Knights of the Euro recently tried to take over global reserve currency status and allied with the mad tyrant Hussein. He was defeated in the Battle at Sands. Fear of recent poverty drives the yellow hordes to embrace the present Dollar system. America has vast food production, and has no doubt quietly promised to help its allies in a collapse. Men who wear thier sheets on thier heads as hats and live in the sand cannot feed themselves, France wants them to ally with the French allies, but France can barely raise enough snails to feed itself, and has no military to protect its freinds in need. America can protect the sheet hat men from thier neighbors and even thier own citizens. And in a collapse, America can send food.
This is why when some say "eek ! America has a 5% deficeit,
that is unsustainable!" The yellow horde does not run.
The world will not run from the advantage of American money. Because it is not in thier advantage to break the present system. Kingdoms will wait for generations till thier adversary weakens enough to defeat. And till the time when the collapse of thier adversary or enemy will not also cause thier own collapse. If thier wise men are wise.
Minister Mc Teer has decreed the price of gold to be held in a range of 250 plus.
The other countries are falling in line, I believe the system will hold for the next 5 years till this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore holds it next major celebration.
A toast, a toast to our golden hosts.

*****a new gold market in gold? no****************

Slowman

(09/20/2003; 06:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109008)

GrateFullForGold

I liked your last post and pretty much feel the same way. Knowing that PM stocks lead the market in the metals I follow the other forum a lot closer. I also like the articles that a lot of the professionals put on there written to educate like Jim Sinclair,Mahandra, Mises, North, Saville and others. Just maybe some of the new people comming to this post do not know about Goldeagles EDITORIAL PAGE WHICH IS FAR BETTER THAN both chat rooms .Personally, I have bet the farm on the metals thanks to lots of insight from posters on both forums.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/20/2003; 06:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109009)

An 'A' thru 'Z' Gold Education (in 175 pages) for $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

DummyANI

(09/20/2003; 07:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109010)

@GratefulForGold (09/20/03; 01:37:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109001)

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspDo you know Jim Sinclair ? He is the best Guru of Gold community.

You can get all the knowledge you want to

Belgian

(09/20/2003; 07:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109011)

*REAL* Interest Rates - (RIR) - (Hamilton-BB)

RIR = Savers nominal IR minus Rate of (price)Inflation (ROIF) : >>> GOLD

As long as the ROIF stays higher than the IR available to savers, we keep on having negative RIR, regardless of how high those nominal IRs for the saver do rise !
I think we have landed in such a high probability !? Why ?:

High nominal IRs, available for savers, cannot outrun the rate of price-inflation, because of the total dollar-debts, growing much faster than the economy under the dollar-system. Five (growing to six) dollars of debt needed to add one dollar to the planet's dollar-GDP !
This means that a larger and larger amount of dollars must be brought, artificially, into the global economic system, as to keep this growing-expanding and service that ever growing debt-berg.

Normally, under such circumstances, nominal IRs should have been much, MUCH higher, as to commpensate for the increasing dollar-floods against the existing real economy.
Savers simply accept (are not aware), that their dollar-confetti holdings, become invisibly more worthless by the day. Because there is a relatively low price-inflation not signaling what is really happening (confetti-proliferation).

This extra-ordinary phenomenon of relative, very low price-inflation is due to the artificial decline in nominal IRs since the highs of 1980 !!!

WE ARE AT 45 YEARS IR LOWS !!! IR ARE STILL IN A 23 YEARS DECLINING TREND !!! This is happening together with unimaginable dollar-confetti-debt creation !!! An incredible contradiction !!! This was (is) ONLY possible through the artificial removal of Gold's role in all this !!!

Since there is more DEBT than SAVINGS out there,...the debtors-majority is not going to complain about low IRs !
It is the savers and holders of dollar-surplusses that are being robbed to the debtors advantages !
This is the cleariest of invitation to make more debt and forget completely about repayment or even servicing that debt ! This while savers keep on losing in the stockmarket, bond(debt)market, dollar-currency exchange rate, and soon in housing and related tangibles.

THE DEBTBERG GETS VIP TREATMENT WHILE SAVINGS ARE PLUNDERED FROM EVERY CORNER ! That's why Gold has started doing what it is supposed to do...SAVE ONE'S WEALTH !!!

With all those simple "extremes" in front of our noses,...one doesn't need to be an expert economist !!!
Just simple common sense is already more than enough to defend oneselve with the simpliest of tools : GOLD !!!

Soon, rather very soon, it will clearly turn out that this catch 22 situation is irreversable. That's why we see this *new* evolvement in artificial dollar exchange rate decline versus all currencies (and gold). How can one possibly say that the US and the dollar makes the world turn around when we see the dollar exchange rate (1,13 > 1,20 > 1,40) detoriating, dangerously !???

I am somewhat *disappointed* that the WAG might (must) be renewed in 2004 ! I would have liked it more, if no WAG was needed anymore. We will see in sept. '04, coinciding with US election period !?

Another bizar phenomenon is the decline of the POO together with the decline in dollar exchange rate ? Is this temporary or systemic ? Thoughts anyone (Socrates-?)?

Boilermaker

(09/20/2003; 07:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109012)

Bundesbank gold sales

http://www.gata.org/cnn042301.htmlErnst Welteke of the BuBa seems to be very anxious to peddle some gold from the German Central Bank. Could it be that the gold he wants to sell has already been sold and probably delivered? If so, the books still show it as an asset and an official sale may be needed to cover the discrepency.

Two years ago the following article appeared from GATA

snip;
James Turk, who also will speak at the Durban conference, revealed the following in a recent commentary, "Behind Closed Doors," which also can be read at http://www.gata.org/lawsuit.html.:

"The Treasury Department has changed the designation of nearly 1,700 tonnes of inventoried gold at the U.S. Mint's facility in West Point, N.Y., which is approximately 21 percent of the total U.S. gold reserve, from 'Gold Bullion Reserve' to 'Custodial Gold.'

"The August 2000 Status Report on U.S. Treasury-Owned gold stored at West Point has a designation of 'Gold Bullion Reserve.' But the September 2000 and subsequent status reports inexplicably designate this same gold that is stored at the U.S. Mint at West Point as 'Custodial Gold.'

"This change in the descriptive label for nearly 1,700 tonnes of gold at West Point from 'Gold Bullion Reserve' to 'Custodial Gold' was purposeful. It happened for a reason. This conclusion is all the more plausible because the Treasury did not change the classification from 'Gold Bullion Reserve' to 'Custodial Gold' to describe the gold stored in Fort Knox or at the U.S. Mint at Denver."

Turk goes on to establish "that the ESF has 'gold swaps' with the Bundesbank. According to Turk, "It therefore does not require much conjecture to add one supposition to the equation by concluding that the gold at West Point has been swapped with gold owned by the Bundesbank, thereby necessitating its reclassification from 'Gold Bullion Reserve' to 'Custodial Gold.' The Treasury Department wanted to make gold available to some bullion banks."

"We now know what has happened. The Bundesbank has loaned 1,700 tonnes, half its 3,400 tonnes reserve; the other 1,700 tonnes were swapped for gold in the U.S. reserves, requiring the change in the West Point vault from 'Gold Bullion Reserve' to 'Custodial Gold.'

"In other words, the Bundesbank's vault is empty because half its gold is stored at West Point, not Europe, and the other half has been loaned out."

Further evidence of the validity of the GATA/Turk claims come from the Bundesbank itself at http://www.bundesbank.de/ezb/de/publications/pdf/statintreserves.pdf "

comment
Has there been any follow up on this to prove or disprove the theory?

Boilermaker

Usul

(09/20/2003; 08:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109013)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

Since gold hit its low of $252 in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to date. This is indeed an integral part of a new long-term bull market in gold.

There are fundamental reasons why gold is today rising in a long-term bull market, and these fundamentals are not ones that may be expected to reverse in short order.

Confidence is falling in the strength of the dollar
as debts and expenditures rise at an alarming rate.

The US dollar is falling against other currencies. It will be a long-term bear market. Yet as other countries attempt to keep their currencies low, its real value will be determined against gold.

The US Current Account is in a deficit, which is growing. The expenses and commitments are numerous and the income is no longer propped up by the stock market bubble. The election approaches, and voters must be won over. The property bubble shoe is yet to fall, and this will sustain the long-term gold bull market for some time.

Gordon Brown in the UK is wondering how to fix the Treasury shortfall. Raise taxes? Cut public spending? After a local election showing plummeting support for the government of the day? He too is between a rock and a hard place.

Faith in stocks and business integrity has been damaged by Andersen, pro-forma accounting, expensing of stock options, Enron, front-running brokers and chief executives who take huge benefits even as their companies lose money and their employees forgo pay rises.

Things of real tangible value are rising in price for many reasons. There is a bull market in global commodities.

Plot the POG going back to 1970. You can draw a technical-analysis "falling wedge" pattern (very bullish) on this whose upper boundary lies now somewhere between 350 and 400, I would put it closer to 350 than 400. A breakout from this boundary is bullish, and a movement to $400 and above appears to be approaching. A yearly close at $400 will be excellent for the bull-market case, and looks highly likely. Buying volume for gold is strong on rallies and selling volume is weak on declines- this also supports the bullish case. Incidentally, as buying volume increases, efforts to suppress the POG by jawboning and orchestrating gold sales will become decreasingly effective.

Three rate cuts did not produce a new bull market in paper as expected by paperonians. Thirteen US rate cuts later, and the Fed still sees no reason to raise rates from a a 45-year low. This does not mean the economy is in fine health,
rather it means the economy is hanging by a thread and anything that would raise debt repayment costs or provide disincentives to growth generated by borrowing would be disastrous, especially as heavy taxation limits people's ability to direct money to the free wealth-generating economy.

Gold futures rose to a 7 year high on Friday. As the dollar falls to two-year lows against the yen, gold looks more attractive to buyers in Japan, and as the dollar
drops against the euro, gold looks more attractive to buyers in Europe.

One factor that lies behind increasing attractiveness of gold to investment money is the phenomenon of negative real interest rates, which imply that holding dollar denominated paper is not profitable.

The real interest rate can be estimated by taking the yield of 1-Year US Treasury Bills and subtracting the annual inflation rate determined from the CPI:

One Year Treasuries yielded 1.2 percent on Sep 12. The US consumer price index for "all items" rose for the third consecutive month in August to 2.2 percent over a year.

So, the real rate of return for "safe" paper is negative 1 percent (even though many believe the CPI to be understating real inflation)!

Meanwhile, gold funds are up 35% and the price of gold is up 18% in the last 12 months. Remember, gold is traditionally the ultimate safe haven. This speaks volumes to the direction in which investment money should flow to seek returns.

Since Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971, the world's currencies, and the dollar in particular, have had no backing in real money (gold) and the world's governments
and central banks have been free to generate as much paper money supply as they liked. The US national debt since 1971 shows an incredible ramp-up compared to previous years.

Countries' fiat currencies have become hopes blowing in the wind!

From 1975 to 1995 (the start of the stocks bubble) the Dow/Gold ratio average was 5.4- even lower at the 1980 bottom. Today it is over 25. If each corrects in the same proportion, we could see gold at $825 and the Dow at 4500. This is my conservative estimate.

Fellow travellers and guests of the table round, this is but the beginning!

cockerel1

(09/20/2003; 08:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109014)

silvercollector re: msg#: 109006

The Canadian Federal Government decided in the early 1990's to hold a national referendum on recognizing Quebec as a "Distinct Society" (Known as "The Charlottown Accord", a move to try and stop them from voting to become a separate country.

The Government and the "Elites", including the academics were all on the "yes" side of the vote, and spent over a hundred million dollars of tax-payers money in advertising that fact.

The "no" side, included the "Reform" party, and spent less than ten percent, pesuading the voters that Quebec was no different than the rest.

The "no" vote was successful and since then, no government of any "stripe" has dared to hold a referendum on any controversial issue.

Recently, in Sweden, the Government and the "Elites" spent over $100 million advocating the benefits of adopting the Euro as their official currency.

The "naysayers" spent less than 10% of the "yes" budget and, as in Canada, the true voice of the people voted to retain the status-quo.

My conclusion: There seems to be a total "lack of trust" by average "Joe-six-pack" when it comes to how Western Civilization is being managed by the "Herders (my name for the Powers-that-be, and the Powers-that-wanna-be").

These are the same "Powers-that-be" that are constantly trying to be seen "Re-distributing the Wealth" at the expense of "Middle-of-the-road, Joe-six-pack" while distancing themselves both financially and socially from the very people that fund their existance from the never-ending taxes being imposed on our society, all in the name of "Fairness."

St. George

(09/20/2003; 08:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109015)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? No******

Although my heart would like to say yes, my eyes say no. Admittedly for all the reasons stated by the "yes" camp there has been an accelerating increase in the price of gold over the past two years, we are not in a bull market yet. The gold price is moving upward barely adjusting and keeping up with the real rate of inflation, dollar inflation/devaluation, and concerns for financial security, not uncontrollably surgeing forward as in a true bull market. The powers that be have been successfully containing this price rise to date. There is no shortage of gold coins/bullion for the retail buyer, one can reasonably purchase all the gold one has funds to spend. Two years ago MK sold Prussian Marks at a premium over comparitive bullion coins , yet last month he was able to graciously sell the same coins at a price equivalent to or less than similiar weight modern gold coins.What happened to the nusimatic pre 1933 premium? He could not have done this in a bull market and still stay in business. There is no bull market if one tries to sell a Kruggerand and is offered less than spot. Look around. How many of your friends and neighbors are buying gold, or contemplating such? Gold is clearly not on the radar screen of Joe 6 Pack or John Q Investor,but will be when Crammer, Kudlow, Maria and their cohorts start touting XYZ Mining Co, or how to purchase physical for less than spot. When will this occur ? This has been the Big Question. Noone knows, but when it does (and will) happen there will be no debate everyone will know and say, WOW! LOOK AT GOLD!

Druid

(09/20/2003; 08:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109016)

$$$$$396.25$$$$$

Druid: Here is my shot at it.

Tevye

(09/20/2003; 09:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109017)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? almost ********

New Bull Market - almost

There is always a pause at each new price level, while we all become accepting of that price level. The bull-bear tention is one in time, between those who take profits or are short, and those who acclimate to buy but at this new higher level. So, on the one hand, since there are higher levels, we are not in a bear market.

Then on the other hand, we should be in a Bull market. But it often seems that rallies lose their oomph and just can't follow through. Its as if some outside force has cut off its motivation. So on the other hand it seems to not be a bull market, but rather a steer market. (refer to your textbooks if you don't know what piece of motivation is removed from a bull to make it a steer.)

Lest you think I don't know the difference, here is a true story from my youth. Once upon a time, I bid on the last animal at the beef auctions, stated to be a feeder steer by the auctioneer. (I had hoped to graze it for the summer and then feed it to my 5 children.) The "steer" turned its backside to us all, only to reveal that it was really a bull. Bidding stopped with a gasp and I was stuck. So I named him "Mis-Steak" and sold him to my neighbor. "Mis-Steak broke out of his barn, tore through the fences and when finally caught was immediately sent to Lazar Wolf, the butcher. As true a story as can be, so help me Gold.

Gold! Its Tradition!
Tevye

Tevye

(09/20/2003; 09:07:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109018)

$$$$ $383.0 $$$$

Its been said before. Its worth saying again. Discussions around this venerable oaken table are an education from and for those who seek permanent truth, and a permanent store of value. Gently presented opinions and facts; arguments and reproofs, are our readily accepted digital currency.

Gold! Its Tradition!
Tevye

Robert

(09/20/2003; 09:12:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109019)

Negative real interest rates on Gold

Gold is perfect money. Since it is perfect money, no interest can be earned by holding or depositing gold.

Inflation is defined as an increase in the quantity of money. Some people define it as an increase of prices, but this is a common error. Prices of goods can (and should) fluctuate independently of the quantity of money in circulation.

The total amount of gold in the world held by central banks or private parties is roughly 120 thousand tons.
Each year new gold is mined and added to the existing hoard of 120 thousand tons. As a result, the total amount of gold in the world is increasing presently at the rate of 2% (roughly 2500 tons).

It follows that gold inflates at the rate of 2% per year.
Since gold does not earn any interest, it follows that
the real interest rate on gold (defined as the nominal interest rate - inflation rate) is NEGATIVE to the tune
of -2%. (If your gold stash is measured in hundreds of tons of gold, then you might be able to earn a lease rate on gold, presently less than 1%. So even if you lease out your gold at positive rates, you will not escape the negative real interest rates on your gold).

In comparison, the US$ inflates presently at the
rate of roughly 7%. The interest rate on US$ deposits
is roughly 3% (1% on short term deposits). Hence, the
real interest rate on US$ holdings is presently -4%.

The conclusion is that there is presently no money in the world (fiat or gold) which does not suffer from negative real interest rates. Having said this, one must also admit that real interest rates fluctuate. In the past 20 years, the real interest rate on fiat was overwhelmingly positive. It did not make sense to hold gold during the past 20 years (1981-2001). It may well be that these "golden" years of fiat money may never return in the future. But then again, we should not underestimate the intelligence and creativity of central bankers.

Boilermaker

(09/20/2003; 09:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109020)

G7 at Dubai

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030920/group_ecb_highlights_1.htmlDUBAI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Following are highlights from the post-G7 news conference with European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Pedro Solbes and Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, who chaired the meeting:
DUISENBERG

"Central banks are able and willing to do anything required to make markets calm

"They are able to use all the instruments they have." "We discussed many countries but no country was singled out."

"We emphasised the need to adhere to the prescriptions of the Stability and Growth Pact."

comment,
Haven't seen any statements on gold. This suggests maybe no agreement could be reached. Duisenberg's statement above also suggests that he expects serious storms in the markets. All hands on deck at the CB's. Is the absence of gold statements from Dubai good news for goldbugs?
West attacking East for refusal to allow currency revaluation. Not a good move for the West when living in a glass house.

Boilermaker

otish mountain

(09/20/2003; 09:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109021)

$$$$$389.60$$$$$

The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore

An Important resource indeed. A meeting of minds gather here and share their research and opinions on probably the most important factors that are effecting the world events and the future. Currencies-Oil-Gold.

More importantly is the ability of this table to disseminate information that is spewed out from official sources. A form of forensics to obtain the truth.

Thank You

Ananse

(09/20/2003; 09:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109022)

A New Gold Bull - YES -

Until it becomes a permanency. The logic of gold (freegold) will become clear to all as the world moves further into the transition from the industrial age to the information age. As nations and the industries within transition to groups of networked entities not tied to national boundaries, a "network state," it will become increasingly obvious that national currencies will no longer work; that there must be a single, acceptable standard that can be understood and accepted by all peoples and cultures - gold. Within this context, the concept of Freegold becomes blindingly obvious. This is not to say that the process will be simple or easy, but the end is clear.

Now to part 2: Price guess and the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore.

$$$$$391.0$$$$$

Arriving here in mid-1999 in search of information about gold and silver, I was soon fascinated by the posts and posters and enjoying the camaraderie immensely. The ideas expressed "felt right" so I settled in and began reading A/FOA/TG. At the same time, I began reading Manuel Castell's The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture Volume III - End of Millennium in which he describes global social change brought about by interaction between networks and identity. (The term Network State is his) This was not an easy book to read! It is rather like some of the Forum posters - dense with information!

I became a habitu� of the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore stopping by nearly every day. Then a few weeks ago, I felt a strong urge to re-read bits of Castell's work. Suddenly the light went on, the penny dropped and I glimpsed the outlines of what may become. I put in another call to CPM.
Without the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore, the book would have been interesting but issued no call for action. So thank you to all - past and present- who post at the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore and to CPM for hosting. Good luck in the contest.

Robert

(09/20/2003; 09:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109023)

Dollar Bill: money and the importance of food

I liked your post a lot, Dollar Bill. Indeed, in all discussions on money and gold, we tend to forget that money and gold are not wealth. It is food and other means of survival (like cheap energy and minerals, affordable health services, quality education etc) which all humans on earth are struggling for. Wealth can be only stored in goods of consumption. Gold can not be consumed and is therefore not wealth. My mother told me that during the starvation times immediately following WWII in Europe, people traded their gold jewelery for a piece of meat or
a couple of eggs. In the past 50 years, we have not suffered starvation times in the western world. To the contrary, we have lived through incredibly affluent times. If and when food scarcity hits the world again (it happened in the past and it will happen in the future again), gold will rapidly lose its purchasing power. People will give away their gold coins for a meal before they starve to death.

You are absolutely right. The wealth of the US is not its industrial might or the service sector of the economy. It is the incredibly productive agriculture of this country which makes it a wealthy country. Japan will never be able to rival the US simply because they can not grow enough food in order to feed themselves.

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 09:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109024)

Thank you, Sir Druid --- BUT ---

Druid (09/20/03; 00:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 108999)
===
To make your POG Prognostication VALID -- I lost the nickel!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 10:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109025)

Sir GratefulForGold -----

GratefulForGold (09/20/03; 01:37:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109001)
??
As an avid reader/lurker and infrequent poster, I am compelled to say something that will probably upset most of you here.
===
I am not upset by your observation, and think your statement is important !

MAY I ASK that you, BEGIN by EXAMPLE, and post the first.

I am sure, upon seeing what exactly you are thinking, others will join and expand your thread !
Thanks for sharing your observation and thoughts.
<;-)

Waverider

(09/20/2003; 10:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109026)

Test only...

on a Golden Saturday morning.

Druid

(09/20/2003; 10:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109027)

Gandalf the White (9/20/03; 09:59:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109024)

Thanks Wizard, it's one of my better losses to date. Now off to work on my hovel for the next 12 hours. It is so difficult to wean yourself off of the cartel's dependency but it makes for wonderful contemplation time. Gold does earn an interest it's just not a stated rate, it is the complement rate of the particular fiat currency that is imploding, thus the one time repricing of gold relative that individual currency. Run a discipline monetary policy and you can corral gold, go nuts with your policy and you will feel gold's wrath. Off to see the Wizard.

a nation of one

(09/20/2003; 10:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109028)

essay for contest - with apologies

I apologize for my answer being so long. I am not just spouting to hear myself talk. I have been working on this, and these are the thoughts that have been occurring to me, as a process in the formation of my answer. It is only by means of these considerations that I feel comfortable giving an answer. Please bear with me. Am I crazy? Perhaps. But when you get to the end maybe you won't think so.

I find the question ambiguous and confusing. This is my fault, no one else�s. I tend to analyze things completely. Other people don't. They are right. I do what I do nonetheless however. And I am unwilling to give my answer employing the conventional wisdom, because, in my perhaps arrogant opinion, that is not adequate. I might be wrong about this. But I don't think so.

The Question: "Is this significant rise enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?"

Which significant rise?

1.) The significant rise that has been occurring since July of 2001? Or,
2.) The significant rise that has been happening in the past several weeks? Or,
3.) The significant rise that has happened since April of this year, after POG's fall from
around 383? Or,
4.) The significant rise that has occurred since 343 in July?

Each of these is a significant rise that we are experiencing now.

The answer could reasonably be thought to depend on which one the question is referring to. As follows.

1.) Probably "Yes," but not with 100% accuracy. Certainly not necessarily.
2.) "Yes," almost definitely, but only when considered in relation to 1, 3, and 4.
3.) Probably "Yes," but, again, not with certainty. Stronger than 1 by itself however.
4.) Very strong confirmation of bullish character. When combined with 2, could warrant an outright "Yes" answer, though not correct literally.

I have to write the following two paragraphs, to get to the answer I want to give.

In one more sense the answer to the question can only be "Yes" and nothing else. Because the question doesn't ask whether the current bull market "is" in its beginnings, it asks whether the significant rise is "enough to label" it so. Labels can be applied at any stage, in the development of a thing, without any reason whatsoever, and they often are. Therefore, strictly speaking, "�this significant rise" is "enough to label" it as such.

Assuming, however, that this is not a trick question and that the reader is meant to answer by saying whether such labeling would be correct, based on the rise alone, the answer can only be "No." For the following reason.

Whether this gold market is presently in its beginnings --and whether it is long term-- can only be definitively determined by what POG does in the months and years to come. It is not possible by any means to correctly predict, with 100% accuracy, any market at any time. The probable accuracy of any prediction --and therefore of any labeling, since a prediction is implied in any labeling such as this one-- is reduced when the only criteria are price and the recent behavior of price. To know whether the movements have been strong, or gathering in force, one must refer to information other than merely price and its behavior, as shown only by its rise or its decline. Volume is not included in this. Neither is history. Nor are news, market breadth, trader sentiment or numerous other relevant considerations, including traditional charting practices and other respected theories.

If the question assumes a knowledge of charting, and that is to be assumed by the reader, then the answer must be "No," not at this moment. Because a gold bull market of any kind will not be confirmed unless and until POG goes above, and verifies, a rise above the high which occurred in February of this year. It is entirely possible that the high in February will not be crossed, and that gold will never go above it again. (Even though, personally, I expect that it will be crossed.)

Now, if what the question is really asking is whether there is any good reason to believe that we are in the early stages of a long term bull market in gold, the answer must be, "Hell yes of course we are!" 99% of all the information available supports this extremely conservative point of view. Only a very few facts are negative on gold, probably less than 1 % in their influence.

But you need reasons to support this. So here are some.

The growing weakness of the dollar; the slated introduction of gold-based currencies; the strengthening Euro; the opening of new gold markets; the likelihood that present mining operations will not meet demand; the amount of time it takes to discover and develop new mines; the fact that some mines have difficulty making enough profit at the current gold price; the fact that gold has been moving away from weak hands and into strong hands for two years now, and that there is no sign that this will stop any time soon; the excessively high valuation of stocks; the erosion of the worth which bonds have historically had as a store of value; substantial and increasing federal debt; our nation's increasing trade deficit; historically massive private debt; the ultimately inflationary consequences of the FED's irresponsible printing of unbacked paper money; the possibility of a fall or collapse in real estate prices in at least some areas of the country; foreboding uncertainties related to the possible course of national and international events; and, in addition to this, the increasing likelihood of nuclear war specifically; the apparently probable decline in the availability of oil over coming years and decades; the high cost of keeping an army in a foreign country; the ongoing closings of many industrial plants in the US; the prospect of additional long term American foreign military wars and occupations and their associated costs; increasing real unemployment and the loss of private income and taxes associated with these lost jobs; the limited effectiveness that military spending in this country is having on improving the US economy generally; an increasing awareness of these realities by the public, together with the probable actions which they will most likely take, including an increase in the overall public perception of the intrinsic merit which gold possesses as a means of preserving whatever wealth one has, and the fact that the gold market is a relatively small market whose behavior is greatly affected by any substantial public interest in it, along with the fact that to get all these trend going fully underway will require, at least, several years, this bull market is going to have to be long term. A lot of time is required for large and powerful events to transpire, and these events are indeed very large and very powerful.
To me, all these facts strongly suggest that the past two years represent only a fraction of POG's potential and ultimate upward movement, and, from this, I believe it is realistic to conclude that these are most likely still only the early stages of a long term bullish movement.

I believe that a proper answer to the question would need to include the understanding that there are good arguments for both sides, and that none of these is ultimately provable or incontrovertible, depending on whether the question is to be taken as it is written or as it is intended, at the present time, and that therefore the question is moot, and that in part because of these excessively convoluted expositions and overly analytical reasonings of mine, I couldn't possibly win.

So why have I bothered to answer?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Liberty Head

(09/20/2003; 11:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109029)

Re: Silvercollector msg #109006 Taxes

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/taxcut.html
The list of taxes does not include AMT, alternative minimum tax. AMT is the cruelest tax ever devised. AMT is not adjusted for inflation, so it will only get much worse. It allows the government to collect a tax on what your stocks used to be worth, even though you didn't sell them at that price. If your stocks go to zero before you sell them, too bad for you. You still owe the tax. In effect, you are taxed on money you never had, and then required to pay after you have gone broke. This dynamic is not an oversight. It is intentional.
Where is Luke Skywalker when you need him?

You can avoid AMT by holding physical gold instead of stocks.

Best Wishes

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 11:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109030)

Sir ANOO

a nation of one (9/20/03; 10:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 109028)
essay for contest - with apologies --
===
Thanks Sir ANOO !
I accept your apologies.
ROFL - You "made my day".
<;-)

Dollar Bill

(09/20/2003; 11:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109031)

*>*............+

Sir Nation of One, Your post might have seemed lengthy when typing, but posted on the forum, it is quite moderate sized.
Good thoughts, reasons and worthy of posting certainly.
As one of your regular readers, know that you are read with respect.

a nation of one

(09/20/2003; 11:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109032)

...

Thanks, you guys. That makes it all worthwhile.

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 11:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109033)

TA TA TA ---- ESSAY CONTEST DEADLINE !!!!

ONLY about half-an-hour to go before the DEADLINE of HIGH NOON Denver time on 9/20/03 !!!
POST IT NOW !!!
You know to whom I am speaking !
<;-)

phil288

(09/20/2003; 11:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109034)

****** The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes *******

The significant rise in the gold price we are now experiencing is certainly enough to be the beginning of a short-term bull market in gold, but in the end it doesn't matter. Gold had value 4500 years ago; gold has value today and likely always will in the future. What other portable asset can retain any value over so long and tumultuous a period of human existence, nothing, not land, not food, not even a political society?
In the last forty years of my adult life and especially since the advent of pure fiat curriencies, the dollar's purchasing power has decreased by 90%. Think what a college education at an ivy league school or a stationwagon cost in 1963 (hint 10% of today's SUV). Will this trend continue or magically turn around? The trend is in place and accelerating. Gold is the benchmark and all currencies will continue to decline in value relative to this ages old benchmark until they reach their intrinsic value -0-.
Those of us who wish to retain purchasing power into the future for us and for those friends and family to follow, can either compete for growth in fiat assets or anchor some of our accomplishments to the shore of gold. As more and more people internationally grasp the truth that currency values are approaching zero, they will seek the shore of gold to secure their future and this demand will drive the relative price.
Those with optimistic outlooks will push the value of fiat currencies lower and lower relative to the gold benchmark, until gold itself is reinstated in law as well as fact as a savings component. You can get yours now from our host and optimistically secure your future from the storms of fiat. Gold "Serving humanity since 2500 BC.", INDEED. Think about it!

phil288

(09/20/2003; 11:41:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109035)

$$$$$$ 378.1 $$$$$$

This golden site and its proprietor MK have been a source of good intelligent information in this age of obfuscation and deceit. My hat is off to all the active posters who have assisted in educating me to the ways of gold. This site will generally give one a heads up on any news you can use, especially with financial implications. Too many great posters to name, but I visit multiple times a day, and don't bother with the main stream media at all. What a relief, honest news about honest money. Thanks everyone, when I have something important to say, I'll post more often. Phil

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 11:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109036)

TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

CONTEST page has been UPDATED !!
Essay Contest DEADLINE is VERY NEAR !!!!
Tick tock
Where are you CB2 ?
<;-)

Boilermaker

(09/20/2003; 11:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109037)

401K Scam/Rant

A friend recently moved to a new job at a NYSE listed company in the area. I have been helping her decide on her 401K investment program. They offer a menu of ten investment options which range from the typical money market trust to bond funds, balanced funds and various stock funds along with the company's stock. There's not even a wiff of any commodities or precious metals, precious metal stocks or currencies in any of these options.

My initial reaction is that all this stuff is garbage that will stink by the time she's ready to retire. But the incentive to put money into 401K's is very compelling. She's in the 28% IRS tax bracket and the company matches the first 3% of her earnings at 60 cents on the dollar and the 4-6% of her earnings at 30 cents on the dollar. Beyond 6% she gets the IRS tax break up to the maximum $14,000 of her own contributions but no matching company contributions.

After telling her that the US$, stocks and bonds are toast, I told her to deduct no more than 6% and go with the money market which she will do.

This personal anecdote is offered to show that the average hard working American employee is basically locked into the fiat financial system. The incentive to play the standard investment game is so great that most do not consider other alternatives such as gold or even gold stocks. When the main-stream financial assets start to go into the toilet again and the dollar starts tanking and inflation goes ballistic there's going to be a whole bunch of pissed-off 401K "investors" ready to shred the folks that run their IRA's. Many of them have been through a world of hurt already and the next round will bring out the kind of anger that moves even the dumbest politicians to act.

The whole idea of locking up one's money in US paper assets at this point in history is absurd. I suspect 401K money is the only thing propping up these markets to the advantage of insiders who are selling.

Boilermaker

timbervision

(09/20/2003; 11:58:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109038)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

*****$388.90******Having missed the last contest I didn't want to miss this one. It seems with working to pay my taxes, helping a friend with a monstrous move, and reading the non-propaganda news on the net each night, I have left no time to formulate my own thoughts as to why I believe we are in a new bull market for gold.

I can't see how this couldn't be a new bull market in gold. I think of the fiat money world like an upsidedown pyramid, the base, which you see from the top, is expanding. Each increment of the expansion involves a greater and greater amount of digital and paper money. The Fed, i.e. the criminal manipulators and their servants, the "Congressional Corporation of the United States of America", and the mainstream media, are using powerful computer, social, and political devices to try to balance this precarious load. But it can not be sustained. Small wobbles are felt from time to time. But what their models can't predict or prevent is the fact that eventually the point of the pyramid will simply collapse, or the structure will break apart as a result of its astronomical weight. When that occurs the people of the world will have to take a crash course on non-currency forms of wealth. All of us at the Forum know how hard it is to make people open their eyes to the evolving financial storm. Perhaps that contrarian indicator is as good a sign as any, to point out that we are in the early stages of a gold bull market. The fact that "nobody" pays attention to our Casandra like warnings, suggests that we are in the early stages of not just a bull market in gold, but at the early stages of the biggest bull market in anything ever!!!!

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 12:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109039)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

The Fifth Forum Birthday ESSAY CONTEST is NOW CLOSED !
Thanks all of you that entered. I am sending out for additional R/W disks so that I may send all the entries to the "Panel of Judges".

NOTICE --- The judging of these entries WILL TAKE A WHILE !

SOOOOO, enter the POG Contest that ends tomorrow (if you have not done so), and then just sit back and await your GOLDEN prizes !
<;-)

(09/20/2003; 12:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109040)

Inverse Head & Shoulders Breakout in Japanese Yen

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XJY,uu[l,a]wallyyay[df][pc65][vc60][i]⪯f=GSign of Asian "revaluation"?

ageka

(09/20/2003; 12:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109041)

Gold Contest

***380.3***
Sir Gandalf the white of the mighty oaken table :
I am totally statistical and technical analysis inclined;
I need your broad view to survive longterm .

timbervision

(09/20/2003; 12:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109042)

****$388.90****

This is my guess for the price guessing part of the contest. It is the same as the one I put in my gold bull entry.

Why I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource? That is easy. This is the only site (that I have found) on the net that clearly distinguishes between paper gold and gold. It could be a terrible tragedy for people who have understood that we live in dangerous financial times and who have taken steps to protect themselves in gold, but to do it only in paper gold. Their hoped for leveraged paper gains from gold may not materialize on the day(s) of reckoning.

Old Yeller

(09/20/2003; 12:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109043)

Yen carry trade

In 2001,ORO placed much of the blame for the root cause of the credit/asset bubbles of the 90's on "hot money" flowing from Japan.

The yen carry trade,in other words.He tossed out a figure of 1 Trillion USD in yen loans,leveraged up 20 to 30 times in US debt assets.A very crowded trade,as ORO would say.

That was two years ago,how much has been covered?.How big is this number now?

It seems the BOJ had a put in place at the 87 level.Has the put been rescinded,or just put on hold for this weekend's bankers' shrimpfest?

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 12:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109044)

LISTING of the POG Contest Entries

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlTHE Contest Page has been UPDATED -- BUT, here are the entries in the POG CONTEST ! Lots of room for entries, and remember the 25 word statement (READ the Rules)!
The time to go before the DEADLINE is getting SHORTER !
Tick tock ! Tick tock ! Tick Tock !! Tick Tock !!!
===
LESS THAN 24 HOURS to go before Entry Deadline of HIGH NOON Denver time Sunday !

VALID Entries (prognostications) are listed in order of decreasing values.
===

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (9/15/03; 02:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108657

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/10/03; 23:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108492

$$$$ $412.0 $$$$ Caradoc (09/19/03; 18:29:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108981

$$$$ $402.4 $$$$ Aurion (09/17/03; 14:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 108799

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Druid (09/20/03; 00:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 108999)

$$$$ $395.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/15/03; 21:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108690

$$$$ $393.3 $$$$ slingshot (9/11/03; 00:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108494

$$$$ $392.5 $$$$ second wind (9/17/03; 07:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108770

$$$$ $391.0 $$$$ Ananse (9/20/03; 09:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 109022)

$$$$ $390.1 $$$$ Socrates964 (9/18/03; 19:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 108893
$$$$ $390.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (9/10/03; 22:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108488

$$$$ $389.6 $$$$ otish mountain (9/20/03; 09:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 109021)

$$$$ $389.1 $$$$ Operative (09/19/03; 16:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 108970

$$$$ $388.9 $$$$ timbervision (9/20/03; 12:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109042
$$$$ $388.8 $$$$ Shanti (09/20/03; 03:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109003)

$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568

$$$$ $387.9 $$$$ steady (09/17/03; 19:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108811

$$$$ $387.1 $$$$ Clink! (9/19/03; 14:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108954

$$$$ $386.7 $$$$ VanRip (9/19/03; 12:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108924

$$$$ $386.2 $$$$ Joanne (9/19/03; 14:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108953

$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857

$$$$ $384.1 $$$$ Jing Zu (9/19/03; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108921

$$$$ $383.3 $$$$ Gonlyold (09/17/03; 01:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 108762
$$$$ $383.2 $$$$ Casey (09/12/03; 14:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 108580

$$$$ $383.0 $$$$ Tevye (9/20/03; 09:07:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109018)

$$$$ $382.5 $$$$ a nation of one (9/19/03; 13:11:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 108930

$$$$ $382.2 $$$$ RobotGuy (9/18/03; 11:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108864

$$$$ $382.0 $$$$ alkahulik (9/18/03; 11:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108861

$$$$ $381.4 $$$$ Remarx (9/19/03; 07:39:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108907

$$$$ $381.2 $$$$ Tate (9/19/03; 10:00:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108912

$$$$ $381.0 $$$$ sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618

$$$$ $380.7 $$$$ Magister Aurelius (9/19/03; 13:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108931

$$$$ $380.5 $$$$ contrarian (9/19/03; 11:18:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108917

$$$$ $380.3 $$$$ ageka (9/20/03; 12:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109041

$$$$ $380.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (09/12/03; 23:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108591

$$$$ $379.3 $$$$ Goldbug 1 (09/19/03; 17:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108977
$$$$ $379.2 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/17/03; 20:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108816

$$$$ $379.0 $$$$ Gondolin (09/17/03; 10:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 108780

$$$$ $378.8 $$$$ Smeagol (09/16/03; 18:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108739

$$$$ $378.6 $$$$ heavy mettle (09/16/03; 17:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108737
$$$$ $378.5 $$$$ ginsenghi (9/19/03; 13:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108943

$$$$ $378.1 $$$$ phil288 (9/20/03; 11:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109035)

$$$$ $377.9 $$$$ Cuda (9/19/03; 03:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108903

$$$$ $377.0 $$$$ DryWasher (9/15/03; 11:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 108669

$$$$ $376.0 $$$$ Toolie (9/18/03; 18:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108891

$$$$ $375.7 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (09/17/03; 19:51:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108812

$$$$ $373.2 $$$$ specie-man (09/17/03; 11:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108789

$$$$ $371.0 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/18/03; 10:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108851

$$$$ $368.5 $$$$ cockerel1 (9/13/03; 21:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108611

$$$$ $364.7 $$$$ Topaz (09/17/03; 04:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 108765
===

GratefulForGold

(09/20/2003; 12:43:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109045)

Sir Gandalf the White - Msg. #109025

Dear Gandalf,

Thank you for the invite! Put me on the spot, you did! What I am about to write ISN�T what I had in mind, but I feel like writing it anyway. Basically, I'm remembering what it was like being a "newcomer" to gold and silver and what I wanted/needed to know.

When I was new to the study of Precious Metals, it sprang from being in Argentina in 2001/02 when their crash occurred. Although I was with a wealthy American (from Argentina who still had a beautiful home there), I was deeply affected by the misery and abject fear the middle class was experiencing (which was just beginning to surface). It made an indelible impression on this naive mind.

I returned to the US and the nagging thought "It COULD happen here!" wouldn't leave me. I got on the Internet and began my research on how to best preserve my friend's assets here in the US (the Argentine banks had frozen his substantial bank account there...he later recovered 1/3 of its value, but only by filing a lawsuit).

Of course, I almost immediately discerned that PRECIOUS METALS was just coming out of a 22 year bear market (said bear caused by Central Bank/governmental manipulation, primarily). I read the history of gold and how valuable gold and silver have always been in countries when they were in turmoil, both in political upheaval and when their governments have debased their currencies. I read how the POG in Argentina skyrocketed after its crash. I then became familiar with the incredibly dismal global economic outlook and the gigantic US trade and budget deficits. I learned the history and what the effects on the entire world are with the US Dollar having become the world's Reserve Currency. I became aware of how horrifically the US government is debasing its currency with its M3 money supply growth/flood. Through the study of Precious Metals I have been made much more aware of the incredible manipulation of the Stock Market and the unknowable ramifications of derivatives (Warren Buffet's "Weapons of Mass Destruction"). And on and on.

All of this information, and more, awakened me from my theretofore complacency and belief that the world/the US would continue lumbering along without any major upheavals in MY life! It no longer was enough to simply work, collect a paycheck and spend most of it on frivolous and basically unnecessary things.

Preparing for the unknown is difficult. Just THINKING about it hurts! But, I have become a "survivalist" (by my own definition). Beginning with a portfolio of gold and silver coins and bars was my first big step. Added a few PM stocks along the way. Food. Water. Medicines. The necessities. I know we face the potential of a VERY severe energy shortage, both with natural gas (thanks, Black Blade) and oil. But since I am not knowledgeable in those areas I haven't invested anything in the energy market. So, my rationale went something like "Well, I could buy a barrel of oil and strap it on my back...or I could buy a gold coin and put it in my pocket." Which resource would be better if, all of a sudden, I decided I needed to "git outta Dodge?" A no brainer!

No, gold and silver won't protect me from a food or water shortage, or any possible terrorist or war scenario in my backyard. But, it would certainly help me get the hell away from my backyard, if need be! And, when the US government successfully debases its fiat dollar to the point where nobody wants it, they certainly will want my gold and silver because these Precious Metals have withstood the test of time.

Since my study of Precious Metals began, I have heard mainstream media advisors go from totally panning gold, to suggesting it be 5% of your portfolio, to some now suggesting it be 30% (mine is a much greater percentage). I have become aware that the Middle East, Asia and India have always been and have become to a MUCH greater extent (China opened its gold market this year to its citizens) AVID purchasers of physical gold! IMO, they have been the major strength combating the Central Banks� gold price suppression. The ENTIRE world is protecting itself from the governments by buying physical gold and silver. Every citizen needs to have some safely in his possession and not trust his welfare to his government.

Phew! Sorry for this long post. I have just learned so much from this Forum (and our sister forum) that I have become "Chicken Little" to those around me. I have been fortunate the last couple of years because I have had the TIME to read the forums every day/night. Most people do not have the time that I was allowed to "get up to speed" on what is happening in the world. They have jobs (as I do now, too), families, yard work, TV (ha!). Some don't relate to the computer or Internet and don't have a chance to get unbiased (or biased in a different direction) news. Many are simply lazy. I am extremely grateful that I was given the opportunity to learn, grow and hopefully protect myself and my loved ones. I simply try to spread the word whenever I can, even though I'm usually thought the fool.

Again, sorry this post isn't what I had in mind when I suggested posts more directed to newcomers! When I have time again, I'll attempt to do that!

Thank you, friends (Sir slingshot, Sir Slowman and Sir DummyANI) for your feedback and all of you posters for your continued giving of life-saving information!

Lady GratefulForGold

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 12:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109046)

Thanks, Lady GratefulForGold !!!!

That was a GREAT STORY, Lady GratefulForGold.
I await your next posting of the "example", AND I think that I see a woman's view, one that most men may miss in their thinking.
Thanks again!
<;-)

Liberty Head

(09/20/2003; 13:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109047)

Re: Boilermaker, 401K Scam msg #109037

I work at a large bio-tech pharmaceutical corp. Our 401k is similar. I sent the V.P. of our benefits dept. a request to add a commodities option to our plan. I made a strong case, none-the-less, I received no response to my suggestion. I reminded him of his posted promise to respond, still no response. Not surprising from a company that refers to it's employees as "resource units"
The kicker for most 401k plans is, you may not withdraw your funds, for any reason, as long as you are an employee. Though the government allows hardship withdrawls, you must first quit your employment then pay the taxes and penalties.
However, I can borrow up to 50% and invest those funds as I chose,(GOLD). Though risky, at least I have more control of my earnings. Win or lose, I find solace in knowing that "They" were deprived of my money. :-)

Best Wishes

Goldendome

(09/20/2003; 13:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109048)

When share indexes break down, will Gold stocks break down?

I am curious for other member opinions on how precious metal company stock values will fare when the major stock indexes (NASDAQ, Dow, S&P) face another major downturn? My opinion is that precious metal stock prices will fall significantly also. In the past, we have seen everything liquidated to raise cash. I suppose that the context or cause of the decline will have a determination, i.e. (a dollar or credit crisis vs. just good old earning disappointments. )

Depending upon the cause of the stock liquidation, I can see situations where the price of physical gold might increase while P.M. share prices fall. Surely, there are others here with both physical and PM share holdings. How are some of you looking at the Juxtra-rise in the mainstream stock indexes and the PM share indexes? Do you look to liquidate at least a portion of PM share holdings on a signal of reversal in this Bear market stock rally? ----Gdome

steady

(09/20/2003; 13:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109049)

pint of beer/silver ratio

last night i saw many individuals fork over almost enough fiat money to buy an ounce of silver for a pint of beer. is a pint of beer worth an ounce of silver?

Goldendome

(09/20/2003; 14:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109050)

401-K "Blues"

Boilermaker and Liberty Head: I agree, that the investment companies are seemingly in cahoots to push higher the paper market financial assets using employer and employee 401-K money. I think that was one major driving force in the late "90's market surge. (Collectively now-- We all push the same things the same way and all will turn out well-and higher, for our 401-k contributors.)

My wife's fund family has about fifty different investment options--"All made of ticky-tacky and they all look just the same." I e-mailed this button-down outfit back there in Washington D.C. "Hey! you out there--how about one fund in amongst all this paper, where a person can at least invest in the paper of a company with a commodity like gold and silver in the ground?"

The response back was polite, snooty, and all-knowing. It went something along these lines: "We at [blah-blah] have been investing for our members since, [whenever]. We have developed investment programs over the years with the input of employers and members that will best suit any investment environment and member need. We at [blah-blah] have a fiduciary responsibility to care for the investment monies of both employers and individuals in such a manner as to assure long term growth and stability. We do not feel that the investment vehicle that you suggest would meet this fiduciary criteria... Thank you for your interest, [blah, blah]"

Well, guess they knew they were dealing with a real crackpot out here, and that gentle, yet firm handling was demanded.

We cashed out of all stock funds, all bond funds, put everything into a short maturity cash reserves fund. All I could tell my wife was this: "I don't know how else to handle it. You won't make anything now in the cash reserves, but hopefully your principal and past earnings will still be there down the road."------What else to do? ---Gdome

DryWasher

(09/20/2003; 14:53:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109051)

Robert (msg#: 109023)

Please forgive me Robert for jumping into your conversation with Dollar Bill, but I just had to correct a misconception created by your message. You wrote the following:

"I liked your post a lot, Dollar Bill. Indeed, in all discussions on money and gold, we tend to forget that money and gold are not wealth. It is food and other means of survival (like cheap energy and minerals, affordable health services, quality education etc) which all humans on earth are struggling for. Wealth can be only stored in goods of consumption. Gold can not be consumed
and is therefore not wealth. My mother told me that during the starvation times immediately following WWII in Europe, people traded their gold jewelery for a piece of meat or a couple of eggs. In the past 50 years, we have not suffered starvation times in the western world. To the contrary, we have lived through incredibly affluent times. If and when food scarcity hits the world again (it happened in the past and it will happen in the future again), gold will rapidly lose its purchasing power. People will give away their gold coins for a meal before they starve to death. In the past 50 years, we have not suffered starvation times in the western world. To the contrary, we have lived through incredibly affluent times. If and when food scarcity hits the world again (it happened in the past and it will happen in the future again), gold will rapidly lose its purchasing power. People will give away their gold coins for a meal before they starve to death."

The misconception in the above message which is bugging me is the following part:

"Wealth can be only stored in goods of consumption. Gold can not be consumed and is therefore not wealth."

In fact gold is a very GOOD store of wealth, and consumables are in general a rather POOR means of storing ones wealth. In the example that you give during the hard times after the war when people were starving and those who had gold jewelry would trade it for food, the stored wealth that the gold represented was traded for the consumable meat and eggs.

Please note that the gold jewelry, which had probably been in the owners possession for many years, still had value enough that someone who was in possession of the very scarce consumable food was willing to trade it for the gold jewelry If one had purchased meat and eggs many years earlier, rather than gold jewelry, the meat and eggs would have long since spoiled and would be worthless as a store of value over that same period of time.

Finally let me end by saying that I agree completely with the broader point of your post, which is about what is really most important in life and, god forbid, should such hard times come upon us again may you and yours be prepared with a store of gold and the necessities of life to see you through them. Indeed a selection of seeds for a garden might well prove to be worth their weight in gold.

Any and all comments on the above are, as always, welcome.

R Powell

(09/20/2003; 15:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109052)

steady

Pint of beer or ounce of silver ? Please excuse me for saying so but your thoughts struck my funny bone. I imagined a bar full of patrons talking and watching television while slowly turning whatever brainpower they possess into numbness. I have worked on both sides of the bar and know them well.

Of the millions involved in this daily ritual, how many would ever think to equate the price of beer with an ounce of silver? Thanks steady, now I don't feel so alone.

As my old mom used to quote...

Everyone in this world is crazy...
Except, of course, for thee and me...
But lately I've been worried about thee...

Those of us who unconsciously equate monetary bills or pay into ounces of silver are rare indeed. How many are we?
Michael, does the forum gatekeeper count the number of visitors?
"Is gold now in a bull market?" I would guess the gatekeeper's count would be as good (if not better) an indicator as any BLS (government) altered sign along the way. Is the castle receiving more visitors? I hope so and also that your business is thriving.
Happy weekend

Clink!

(09/20/2003; 15:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109053)

Articles for the newcomer

I, too, have been looking for summary articles - not too simplified - which could form a framework of understanding for both the day-to-day posts or the Hall of Fame. There was a post the other which struck me as being a good candidate for a 'Gold 101' Hall :-

specie-man (9/8/03; 12:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 108327)
Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005

What do other people think ?

C!

Boilermaker

(09/20/2003; 15:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109054)

Goldendome #109048

PM stocks will rally with the POG in spite of a broad market decline. Money out of the stock market will tend to go into cash, bonds, commodities and PM's (stocks and physical). The danger of holding PM stocks will come when the government of the host country (where the PM mines are located) decide that they need a much larger cut of the revenue. You will see all kinds of royalties, windfall profits, environmental "fees" and other taxes applied to gold miners if not outright confiscation of their properties. Another possibility is that miners will be forced to sell their gold to a Central Bank at a fixed price set at rates like a publiic utility, ie., a fixed return on investment regardless of the free market price.

Be assured that gold stocks will be ripe pickings for governments in need of revenue. When this process begins the gold stocks will tank as investors see the "future".

Boilermaker

cockerel1

(09/20/2003; 15:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109055)

Gold and Guns!

There is an eerie calm and at the same time, an uneasy feeling that all is not well, even amongst the younger generation. They see signs, but do not understand what is happening.

Tuition is rising, education is a mess, health care is in trouble and essential (to them) services and goods are eating up more and more of their precious reserves.

Here in Canada (and, I think, in the U.S.) there is a push by government to register (read confiscate) all firearms (Canada has spend almost a billion, yes one billion dollars, with false advertising by the government, that it is strictly a crime-prevention program.

My question:

Could this possibly be a way to disarm the population, before the "S*** hits the proverbial Fan"?

seagull

(09/20/2003; 16:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109056)

$$$$383.7$$$$

As a daily visitor to this might oaken table since it's very first appearance, it is quite a difficult task to express adequately the impact that this resource has had for me. I came to it as part of a search in understanding why I lost a great deal when a market move went against me when the picture I was seeing suggested I was correct in my fundamental analyis. Thus began my education in market manipulation, and while I am still in Economics 101, it is here that one can garner the most objective picture of much is what is happening from a diverse and immensely knowledgeable body of posters. Thank you Michael for hosting this wonderful resource, and many thanks for the provision of a great body of economic work in progress. HAPPY BIRTHDAY, USAgold

Cougar

(09/20/2003; 16:13:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109057)

******************** $380.20 ********************

There is no doubt that this is absolutely the BEST place on the internet....actually ANYWHERE (thanks Black Blade and All)....to obtain information about Gold and the markets!!

TownCrier

(09/20/2003; 16:19:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109058)

I saw the several expressions of interest for a sort of 'Gold 101' for newcomers

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
It's already a done deal. (see url above) The title says it all:

"The ABCs of Gold Investing -- Protecting Your Wealth Through Private Gold Ownership"

It covers everything the new investor needs to know to bring him or her up to speed, presented in a conveniently packaged 175-page portable format (i.e., it's a book!) suitable for planes, trains, automobiles, hotels, waiting rooms, living rooms...

It retails at fine bookstores everywhere for $14.95, but you can buy it directly from the author (our very own MK) here for $5.95.

R.

The Invisible Hand

(09/20/2003; 17:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109059)

Sorry, if this has been posted before

http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3479124≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsCentral bankers briefly discuss new gold sales deal
Sat September 20, 2003 02:36 PM ET
DUBAI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Central bankers meeting in Dubai briefly discussed a new gold sales deal on Saturday to replace an existing one that expires next September, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said.
"It was very brief and that was all," Dodge said, in response to a question on whether there had been any kind of talk among central bankers about gold sales.
Central bankers agreed in Washington in 1999 that 15 European central banks would not sell gold on the market, with the exception of already planned gold sales.
But central bankers did not discuss ramping up levels of gold sales in any potential new agreement or whether the number of institutions involved would be expanded, Dodge added.
Bank of France's Jean-Claude Trichet and Treasury Director Jean-Pierre Jouyet both said there had been strictly no discussion on gold at Saturday's G7 meeting and declined to comment further at a briefing held at the same time as the Canadian press conference.
One G7 source on Friday said central bankers would initiate talks on a new gold deal where sales could rise in stages from 400 tonnes a year -- the existing top annual threshold -- and that the magnitude of the incremental increase would depend on the number of new signatories to the potential new deal.
December COMEX gold futures in New York surged $5.20 to $382.90, bolstered by hopes that central banks would decide to maintain the level of transparency on their gold market activities attained in the original 1999 agreement.

TownCrier

(09/20/2003; 17:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109060)

20Sept2003 Communique of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

excerpts:

We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely and co-operate as appropriate. In this context we emphasis that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas to promote smooth and widespread adjustments in the international financial system, based on market mechanisms.

[Randy's note: Is it noteworthy that the description called for "smooth and widespread" adjustments but did NOT mandate that they necessarily be "gradual" as well?]

...We remain committed to transparency and effective exchange of information between countries as vital weapons in the fight against money laundering and tax evasion. We strongly urge those OECD countries that have not taken necessary steps - in particular in allowing access to bank information - to do so as soon as possible.

...We reaffirm our commitment to fight global poverty and to help developing countries achieve the international development goals of the Millennium Declaration. In this respect, we discussed financing issues and and results based measurement. ...

...We reaffirm our strong commitment to complete the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. We urge all bilateral creditors to join with us in cancelling out the 100 percent of their eligible claims.

...Since September 11, 2001, we have made significant progress in the fight against terrorist financing, although much remains to be done. We look forward to the Fund and Bank making terrorist financing/money laundering assessments a permanent part of their work.

[R's note: IMF evolving into a new institutional niche (as it ever has) as past functions become obsolete?]

...We call upon the Paris Club to make its best effort to complete the restructuring of Iraq's debt before the end of 2004. We urge all non-Paris Club creditors to cooperate.

[R's note: Iraq's Paris Club debt stands near $21 billion. Heck, the PC might as well forgive it now and earn good karma points rather than let it be inflated away with depreciating dollars to effectively the same (albeit karma-free) resolution.]

R.

TownCrier

(09/20/2003; 17:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109061)

url to the G7 communique cited in previous msg

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030920/group_text_1.htmlR.

Waverider

(09/20/2003; 17:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109062)

$$$$$ 388.20 $$$$$

***** Happy Birthday O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore *****
Aka: Why I love this Place (A repeat post updated..)

One special evening a few years ago,
I discovered O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
Which dwells in the CPM Castle of Gold,
And whose essence and secrets *must* be extolled�

I was welcomed here with both Kindness and Grace
Peoples' words I would read, ne�er seeing their face,
Words of education, knowledge, and wisdom so dear
Truly a Tapestry of Gold, it soon became clear.

A Table where the King, Sir Michael K
Is the Bestest Host in every way,
His Knowledge, Commitment, and Graciousness too
Provides the foundation for all that we Goldbugs do.

A Table where guidance on the Trail each day,
Comes from those experienced who've traveled this way,
From the archives of FOA and Another are words
Of prescient thoughts still rarely heard.

A Table where quietly behind the scene
TownCrier works hard and is often seen
Addressing the headlines and announcing the news,
Inviting our thoughts, our debates, and our views.

A Table where Black Blade seems never to rest,
Generously sharing his knowledge and giving his Best
He faithfully informs us with the DMR,
Reaching Goldbugs and bugettes, both near and far.

A Table where Gold rightly Reigns Supreme
As the dollar collapses and splits at the seams,
Where media lies are analyzed and exposed,
As Truth is unveiled and clearly disclosed.

A Table where intensive Gold study is done,
Economics and geopolitics for everyone,
The only Institution with the unique degree -
A Doctorate in International Gold Studies.

A Table where integrity and nobiliy abound
In Knights and Ladies who frequent the Round,
All nurture my thoughts on this Trail of Gold
And Gratefullness for All in my heart I do hold.

A Table where contests are both fun and fair,
Where Gandalf the White always is there,
To sound the "TATA" and announce the event
For prizes so Precious they'll never be spent.

A Table where writing is creative and bold�
Midas Crusade by Slingshot is a sight to behold,
Poetry and writings of numerous kinds
Weave a mosaic fabric from the many great minds.

A fabric so beautiful you get caught in the thread
Very curious to see where it next will be led,
For we find at the O�Mighty Oaken Table of Yore
The birth of ideas not read elsewhere before.

The FINAL reason for loving this TABLE of YORE,
Is I (still) WAIT for A GOLDBUG PARTY like NEVER BEFORE�
To HONOR our HOST and to MEET ONE ANOTHER
For it's HERE we've become GOLD SISTERS and BROTHERS!

Lady Waverider

Clink!

(09/20/2003; 17:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109063)

@ Lady Waverider

Chapeau, Madame ! (As the French would say). But, um, er, aren't your verses missing a line ? LOL !
C!

Clink!

(09/20/2003; 17:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109064)

@ TC

Thank you for reminding me that that opus should have been on my bookshelf a long time ago. I've just placed the order.
C!

7nomads

(09/20/2003; 18:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109065)

$$$375.5$$$

The offical word is that the Dubai meeting was a non-gold event. We shall see. With committments on Dec gold near 200,000 look for a strong move by some to wash out some of the weak-hearted speculators.

Although some buy gold for speculation, those that know it as wealth hold it all the more tighter. They know that it wouldn't always be available. Lock in with a purchase from USAGOLD.

davefinger

(09/20/2003; 19:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109066)

DryWash

Agree with the thrust of what you are saying. The topic of 'hard-times' is what brought out the statement from my gold(en) mentor, "The only thing I like better than gold is land." Asked why, he replied that land is productive - you can grow/raise food, timber or livestock on it, possibly mine it, and otherwise rent/lease/barter usage of it to those who can do any of the above.

Goldendome

(09/20/2003; 19:21:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109067)

$$$$$$$$$$ 384.80 $$$$$$$$$$

The mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an important one-stop resource for financial news, information, and analysis, that often is not easily obained elsewhere. Aside from the links and educational material posted, the many Knights and Ladies of the Oaken Table provide the encouragement and fortify my strength that our faith in Gold is correct and right, even when my own resolve may have weakened! -------Gdome

Melting Pot

(09/20/2003; 20:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109068)

Marwan Al Kabalan: Saudi-Russian detente driven by need to control oil

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/Opinion.asp?ArticleID=97924Keep your eyes on $27 bbl oil. If oil gaps down in a big way next week or week after the dollar will collapse in toto.

Now we know why Snow was in Asia last week and Bush41 was in Russia this week!

IMF warns trade gap could bring down dollar

SNIP:

The International Monetary Fund yesterday warned that the colossal United States trade deficit was a noose around the neck of the economy, emphasising that the once mighty "dollar could collapse at any moment."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1045369,00.html

America has lost political and financial control of oil markets, dollar will collapse if further control is lost!

Declining POO and volume will drive dollar to shamefull lows.

NIA and be very careful!

R Powell

(09/20/2003; 20:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109069)

$$$$$$ 385.2 $$$$$$$$

Over the years the USAGold forum has attracted some extraordinary thoughts pertaining to precious metals and the general state of the world economy. Some of this has been the simple posting of world news headlines, some has been one-of-a-kind, not-to-be-found anywhere else analysis and discussion. I am proud and feel privileged to have been a small part of this, often offering the not always popular pragmatic market view, but always intent on furthering my economic (and market) knowledge. This I strive to do to better myself and to try to add outrageous amounts of fiat to my trading account. (;> ))

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 20:32:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109070)

TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlPOG CONTEST page has been UPDATED as of 29:30 Saturday !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/20/2003; 20:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109071)

ROFL <;-)

MAKE that "as of 20:30 Saturday"
BUT, I do need those extra hours to re-read all those Essay Contest Entries !
<;-)

Toolie

(09/20/2003; 21:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109072)

cockerel1 (9/20/03; 15:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109055)

You asked: Could this possibly be a way to disarm the population, before the "S*** hits the proverbial Fan"?

Could be. It is also the nature of government to expand its power at the expense of it citizens. Particularly targeting minorities one at a time.

It may be worth noting that here in the USA, Many political observers attribute the gain of the Republican party's control of Congress to the Pro gun control policies that the Dems were advancing. Those policies are off the table for the moment. They will be back shortly after the unemployed masses get government paid healthcare.

Unfortunately for me, I lost most of my firearms when my canoe rolled over and my gold as well, should that become a target of confiscation.

Yukon

(09/20/2003; 21:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109073)

$$$$$$384.60$$$$$$

The USA Gold/ Centennial Precious Metals website (aka The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore) is without question a one-stop-shop for all your financial information and precious metal needs. As the premier resource for gold, not only do we get a daily market update that often transcends into the equity, currency and bond markets along with our precious metals fill (a thousand thanks Black Blade); but we are graced with a host whom not only knows intimately about the mechanics of gold, but runs a top notch company that caters to the beginner just taking his first steps into the brilliantly lit world of precious metals (a million thanks to you Mr. Kosares- without you all of this would not be possible). The Mighty Table of Yore has fostered some outstanding posts that are from individuals kind enough to share their wisdom. Many of these can be found in the Gilded Opinion, Hall of Fame and Gold Trail sections of the website. In addition, if you have not read the writings/postings of "Another", you are doing yourself a great disservice. To see the truth that enables people of all walks and means to be able to "walk in the footsteps of giants," is, indeed, powerful and enlightening. But be skeptical and get all your questions answered before taking the word of strangers. Knowledge is the key to understanding and this table as a plenty of it! Explore this site and you will be amazed at the depth of offerings.

Thank you to everyone from whom I continue to gain and grow. I feel indebted to you all and hope that with my infrequent postings I can return the favor when I am able.

Peace and Blessings to All.
Viva Liberty!

Yukon

P.S. to Toolie: I am in the same "boat" as you. Only my dog ate my firearms. He had some bad "discharge" for a few days but is A-okay now! Curiously, he has been eyeing my stash of metals lately. Should confiscation become an issue, I am certain he may just become ravenous and insatiable. We shall see what develops.

DummyANI

(09/20/2003; 21:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109074)

@Melting Pot (9/20/03; 20:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 109068)

Why S&P or Moody downgrade the government-bonds of USA ?SNIP:
IMF warns trade gap could bring down dollar
Charlotte Denny and Larry Elliott
Friday September 19, 2003
The Guardian

The International Monetary Fund yesterday warned that the colossal United States trade deficit was a noose around the neck of the economy, emphasising that the once mighty dollar could collapse at any moment.
Arguing that the world's big economies were already too dependent on the willingness of American consumers to live beyond their means, the IMF said the US could not continue to run a current account deficit of 5% of GDP.
D-ANI-comment: Very ridiculous arguments are manipulated by IMF and CBs.

If the US could not continue to run a current account deficit of 5% of GDP, and the once mighty dollar could collapse at any moment, why S&P or Moodys downgrade the government-bonds of USA ?

Japanese government-bonds were downgraded by them under African countries, but IMF and G-7 request rising Yen, something is wrong, and there is a hidden problem.
If a current account deficit of 5% of GDP is a problem, a current account deficit of 10% of GDP is a more serious problem.
Japan has a current account deficit of 10% of GDP, but IMF and G-7 request rising Yen, something is wrong, and there is another hidden problem.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen. ---- D-ANI:

DummyANI

(09/20/2003; 21:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109075)

Why S&P or Moody does not downgrade the government-bonds of USA ?

Im sorry D-ANI-comment: Very ridiculous arguments are manipulated by IMF and CBs.

If the US could not continue to run a current account deficit of 5% of GDP, and the once mighty dollar could collapse at any moment, why S&P or Moodys does not downgrade the government-bonds of USA ?

Japanese government-bonds were downgraded by them under African countries, but IMF and G-7 request rising Yen, something is wrong, and there is a hidden problem.
If a current account deficit of 5% of GDP is a problem, a current account deficit of 10% of GDP is a more serious problem.
Japan has a current account deficit of 10% of GDP, but IMF and G-7 request rising Yen, something is wrong, and there is another hidden problem.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen. ---- D-ANI:

GratefulForGold

(09/20/2003; 21:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109076)

A feeble attempt at speaking to newcomers (for Gandalf)

As an example, I will attempt to (very imperfectly) paraphrase some of the subject matter of Belgian's post #109011. By no means is this meant as an affront to Belgian! I am merely using its subject matter as an example of the simplicity (I hope) that might reach newcomers (who may not have the time/ability/patience to read a lengthy and complex post). BTW, I DO read all of Belgian's posts and find them very informative. [Unfortunately, I may find out that I can't communicate very simply!! In that case, I retract my initial post regarding posting for newcomers and will happily go back to my lurking! (Also, "interest rates" is not one of my "strong suits" in understanding).]

Example:

Thanks to deceitful media reporting, the general public is not aware that the interest rates are being even more severely eroded than they are told. When cloaked inflation (and dollar debasement) diminishes the real interest rates, we are left with NEGATIVE real interest rates! This is what has been happening. Inflation is robbing savings to an alarming degree! If the interest rates weren't at an artificially 45-year low, they would already have risen greatly! But, thanks to a still low price inflation (the dollar buying power) of China-made-Wal-Mart products and the bordering-on-deflation competition of fast food businesses � the devaluing of the US dollar (by the inordinate increase in money supply (dollar printing out of thin air)) is still kept under covers. So, why is this such a big deal? Well, all of this conspires to favor the Debtors, while PUNISHING Savers. Quite a foundation upon which to rebuild an economy!

So, what do you do with any wealth/resources you may currently have and want to protect? Money market account? Bonds/T-bills? The low interest rates so favorable to Debtors actually ROB you of your principal!

In addition, these options are yet further extensions of the fiat, over-abundant paper dollar! The very one they're hell bent on debasing/devaluing by over-issuing to an unbelievable degree! Do you want to build a grass hut as protection in the midst of the dry season? Do you want to try to protect your wealth from being stolen from you by storing it in the medium in which the thieves trade?

IMO, forget the addiction to "fast, easy bucks" by way of the stock market (or be VERY aware and know when to get out...and into physical assets (like gold)...and even at that you can get flogged). Forget the supposedly "safe" places such as money markets, bonds/T-Bills, or even large cash accounts in banks. Forget, at today's prices, the housing market � they have already ruined it (thanks to cheap credit/refinancing). Make sure you are at least "hedged" by owning an ample amount of PHYSICAL gold and silver. In today's times, they are truly one of the few bonafide safe havens available to the average investor.

Take responsibility for your assets/wealth. Follow the really smart money rather than the media-hype. NOBODY will care more about your survival and well-being than you! Trust yourself and follow the ring of truth that gold resonates.

Robert

(09/20/2003; 21:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109077)

DryWasher: Why gold is not wealth

The widely held opinion that gold is wealth is an illusion based on the tacit assumption that there will always be a productive economy eager to produce and exchange the real goods for money. Gold is the best money there is, but like all monies, it is not wealth. You can not be wealthy if you do not have the means of surivival - food being the most important one. Now you say if I have gold I will always be able to buy food. Well, that was true during most times and at most places in history. However, it is not always true. Imagine a situation of a severe food scarcity, for instance due to land contamination (after a nuclear attack) or a severe draught. If the scarcity is sufficiently strong, people will chose not to trade their food for money. Can you imagine a "wealthy" individual holding tons of gold while starving to death? Well, not according to my definition of wealth. In order to survive, we need to consume. If you do not own any consumable goods (or means to produce them like land), then you are not wealthy. You depend on the ability and willingness of others to produce and trade consumable goods (real wealth) against your money.

Thanks for your comments on my previous posting.

Robert

(09/20/2003; 22:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109078)

DummyAni: rating of government bonds US vs Japan

You made an excellent point, DummyAni: The government bonds of the greatest debtor nation on earth (USA) enjoy the highest possible credit rating (AAA), while at the same time, the government bonds of the greatest creditor nation on earth (Japan) are ranked in creditworthness equal to (or below) some unimportant 3rd world countries. What a joke! That type of arrogance of the debtor nation towards the creditors can not continue for very long!

Druid

(09/20/2003; 22:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109079)

Boilermaker (9/20/03; 11:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109037)

Druid: Boilermaker, it's a built in annuity with no real choice. Just what the fat cats ordered.

Bound Spirit

(09/20/2003; 22:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109080)

$$$$$$379.5$$$$$$$$

Why do I you consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource? Simple - the people around this table are, for the most part, objective. Sure they're subjective about gold, that's to be expected. But objectivity in economic matters, as opposed to the perpetual palather coming from our cheerleading politicians, media and CB's, is a valuable resource. Gold can't help but promote truth and this forum can't help but cut through the propaganda. Economics is a great education once reality verifies your professors lessons. Thank you USA Gold!

mdgc

(09/20/2003; 23:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109081)

$$$$$ 390.50 $$$$$

The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an important resource because of the Strength of Its Sturdy Oaken Legs needed to support the weight of coins and bars of the yellow metal with a specific gravity seventy percent denser than lead.

DummyANI

(09/20/2003; 23:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109082)

@Robert (9/20/03; 22:21:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 109078)

Why S&P or Moodys does not downgrade the government-bonds of USA ? --- Part2Theoretically, there are two following cases.
case1: S&P and Moodys are right, and IMF and CBs are wrong.

case2: S&P and Moodys are wrong, and IMF and CBs are right.

I think case1 is right, and case2 is wrong. Because CBs are fraud criminal organizations, and they tell lies plainly. If S&P and Moodys are wrong, they must be bankrupted long ago.

If case1 is right, there are some interested parties who want to exchange from Yen to USD at a best profitable rate. I remember LTCM-crisis in 1998, when Yen was suddenly risen at 30 percent.
Yen is a very easy currency to manipulate and gain a profit for CBs. Jim Sinclair is pointing that some derivative companies are sinking into very serious troubles.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Robert

(09/21/2003; 00:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109084)

DummyANI: case 1 and case 2

In addition to

"case1: S&P and Moodys are right, and IMF and CBs are wrong.

case2: S&P and Moodys are wrong, and IMF and CBs are right."

we need also to consider

case3: S&P and Moodys are wrong, and IMF and CBs are wrong.

In my opinion, case 3 is most likely to be true.

When trying to understand the Japanese monetary policies, please do not forget that Japan does not have many choices. They must do what they are being told to do. Japan is (unfortunately) not a sovereign nation.

otish mountain

(09/21/2003; 01:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109085)

Melting Pot post109068

You state in your post:
Keep your eyes on $27 bbl oil. If oil gaps down in a big way next week or week after the dollar will collapse in toto.

Can you expand on this. Last week we talked of certain quotes from Another on this similar subject and thank you for answering my quiries.

Waverider

(09/21/2003; 01:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109086)

Clink!

Merci...the missing line is the "unspoken thread" in each and every verse! (You ARE cheeky!) ;o)
Waverider

DummyANI

(09/21/2003; 03:22:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109087)

@Robert (9/21/03; 00:44:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 109084)

True reason why JGB cannot gain high rate.Between USA and Japan, transactions are exchanged with goods & services, equities, and bonds & notes.

According to Department of the Treasury,
T1: transactions between USA and Jp with goods & services are nearly average 33 billion USD per month. This difference is called trade surplus for Japan.

T2: transactions between USA and Jp with equities are less than 33 billion USD per month. This difference is never reported by the sitting administrations.

T3: transactions between USA and Jp with JGB bonds & notes are nearly average 250 billion USD per month. This difference is never reported by the sitting administrations.

T4: transactions between USA and Jp with US bonds & notes are nearly average 1000 billion USD per month. This difference is never reported by the sitting administrations.

A terribly foolish Japanese bankers are always losers at the money-wars(T3 and T4). Background of the Japanese tiny trade surplus, ten or thousand profits gained by bond-wars & equity-wars are transferred from Japan to USA.
I believe that �gcase1: S&P and Moodys are right, and IMF and CBs are wrong.�h is right. And these games cannot continue to play for a long time as like Gold-depression by CBs. A warning light which indicates Bank-Moratorium will be declared is blinking at a few years ago.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

silvercollector

(09/21/2003; 04:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109088)

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

Gold is now on a slow grinding uptrend that will last many years, perhaps forever! Over time the uptrend will accelerate and we will see 4 digit gold.

The quick answer for this startling prediction is simply that the US dollar will begin to lose value when measured across a basket of currencies which includes gold. The world's premier currency, gold, will be revalued to reflect ownership of an asset of real value. A gold coin in hand represents wealth and value. Paper currency has a hidden agenda, there is a line up of claims and expectations. Gold is free of this emcumberance. It stands alone, free of lien, free of fear and when, not if paper begins to burn in our lifetime gold will shine.

The US dollar has been on a pedestal for many years and has also served as the world's reserve currency. The dollar is on life support now and has been for a few years now. The world prepares for the inevitable, the demise of the US dollar.

"The candle that burns twice as bright unfortunately burns half as long....and son...you have been so very bright. Now it's time to die."

silvercollector

(09/21/2003; 04:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109089)

$$$$$$$$430.00$$$$$$$$$$

Why do I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource?

For 3 very important reasons:

a)the speed of the info. If there's an important newsbreak it's usually here first.

b) the accurancy is very high, much more so than say Maria & The Thieves ;)

c) the cross-section of info. With the vast spectrum of posters on the forum one can follow several 'threads' simultaneously.

Thanks to MK and your staff Sir!

Dollar Bill

(09/21/2003; 05:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109090)

*******378.2******

.,.

Gondolin

(09/21/2003; 05:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109091)

Pint of Beer v Silver

Steady.

Ouch!!

As a consumer of vast amounts of the amber nectar, not to mention fine wines, I am now hanging my head in despondency. That really did as Rich Powell said 'hit my funnybone.' Last night alone some 15 ounces of silver were passed by!!

I have my position in physical and PM stocks, and despite the feeling I should be accumulating more, I still have to live and enjoy life. But that really did strike a chord when I look at all those I have tried to enlighten who tend to look at me as chicken little, smile and generally dismiss forget what I have shared with them. Of course we all enjoyed the amber nectar!!

But hey, we only live once.

Grateful for Gold: As a daily reader of this forum I have accumulated an education second to none from the great minds who share the Table. I also read other sites but the wealth of information here is the cream. Posts here have links to articles and other websites, and these other sites are invaluable. However it is here that the discussion of events is broken down,nay, even vociferously debated.

As listing the other sites here is frowned upon for the obvious reason, the first source for any reference should perhaps be GATA, where all golden sites are listed. Perhaps our gracious hosts who do refer all comers to GATA on a regular basis, might place a larger reference to GATA within the site to assist newcomers to the Trail. The editorials of Sinclair, Hamilton, Russell, Taylor and Bonner and co on the other side are essential reading.

As a Historian I consider time spent at the Table could be considered as going to the source,or doing extra tutorials, where one can discuss,digest and pull together all relevant information, and indeed discard some as not relevant.

Indeed I now even regularly read the press and on occasion tune in to Bloomberg and CNBC so I can judge how the mainstream sentiment is flowing. Unfortuneately, not everyone can be rich, not everyone can benefit from the coming PM explosion.

Respectfully,I agree with your sentiments but suggest the old saying is relevant here: 'You can lead a horse to water but you can't force him to drink.'

Sundeck

(09/21/2003; 05:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109093)

$$$$$400.0$$$$$

What? No-one hit the magic 400 number yet? OK it's mine!

A valuable resource? Why yes!

Each day I purchase the Australian Financial Review (Australia's premier financial paper) and browse it from cover to cover...reading much, but seldom does it beat USA Gold - CPM to the major stories. OK, sure...there is Oz-specific stuff in the AFR, but the global stuff nearly always appears on USA Gold first (along with free and full comment) before it finds its way into the AFR.

Now, the AFR costs Aust$2.50 per copy and it is a valuable resource... but I can log onto USA Gold as often as I like for nought! Conclusion? An inexpensive and very valuable resource (and greatly appreciated - thanks Sir MK et al.)!

:-)

Sundeck

Dollar Bill

(09/21/2003; 05:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109094)

*>*............+

I would hate to be typing this from Japan as a citizen.
.All the oil has to be imported.
.Land is scarce and expensive.
.Food has to be imported or starvation will commence.
.Vast fishing trawler fleet is encountering dimished fish stocks from overfishing.
.If the dollar tanks, they are in dire straits.
.There is a mafia like subculture that infests the business world in a massive way and is responsible in a large way for Japans not closing bad banks and businesses. Previous ministers assigned the task of cutting off losing enterprises from bank funding were killed. That is well know in Japan.
.As retail supercenters expand throughout Japan, their pervious retail structure, much more mom and pop and on every block, is being crushed. The same layoff problems we have here with a changing economy are happening there.
.No military, but then, who would want to move in and take over? ect.

Sundeck

(09/21/2003; 06:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109095)

*******The new bull market in gold? Yes.*********

What is a "Bull" market?

The "bull" signifies vigour, daring and forward, upward thrust!

Do we see this in the gold market at the moment? In modest proportions perhaps ... a demi-bull, little-bull or "poddy"-bull perhaps...but the big, bad "irrationally exuberant" bull is yet to arrive...he is pawing the dust of the future.

The gold market, at the moment, is characterised by tentative consolidation with growing confidence. The solid factors underpinning the gold market are yet to be embraced by the many. Galileo has proclaimed that "the Earth goes around the Sun", but the truth is still too confronting for the many. Gold buffs are still being persecuted. Reason is still being stretched upon the rack of Incredulity.

But there is little doubt that the answer is "Yes...we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold."

Golden bull rises.
Paws the dust, bellows loudly.
Fools doze. Wise men wake.

:-)

Sundeck

Speedy

(09/21/2003; 07:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109096)

contest

$$$$384.30 Yes we are in a major BULL MARKET that I believe started many years ago before people really understood the important of GOLD! The BULL is going to ride very high this time, bucking many people off, including many loyal physical holders trying to make a quick $$, but those of us who hold on will be rewarded beyond belief!! This Mighty Oaken Table of Yores is the most reliable source of info on the planet, with the best posters anywhere in the world!! I find any info about gold and silver right here and I have shared that info with others who need this eye opening info to push them over the top and get some gold!! I thank everyone here who shares hour after hour of info and insight with those of us who depend on this sight to make the right decision about physical!! Thanks USA GOLD Staff and please send me info on how to buy physical thru your company!!!!!!!! To The MOON

Shermag

(09/21/2003; 08:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109097)

$$$$387.5$$$$

Why I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource.

I come here to be informed. This is where I first find information on important events on the realm of world finance, corporate developments, energy markets, national finance, and of course gold.

I also come here to understand. This is where I learned most of what I know about gold, its history as money and a store of wealth, and its continued importance in world finances.

This site is my first read on a daily basis if time permits. I try to read it all.

Congratulations to MK for its success. Thank you to our host, those who keep it a clean and tidy place, and all who post to make it my important source. Here's to many more years.

Boilermaker

(09/21/2003; 08:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109098)

$$$$$$ 385.9 $$$$$$

The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore has given me a lifetime's worth of knowledge of economics, finance, banking, currencies, world commerce, politics, markets and market manipulation, truth vs. spin, and a wealth of opinions that help me form my own. God bless us all and may we prevail over the dark forces of evil that have been dominant for too long.

Happy Birthday to the forum and thanks to MK and crew for being such gracious and generous hosts.

Boilermaker

Dollar Bill

(09/21/2003; 08:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109099)

*>*.........+

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2003/0929/058.html"...The new Electronic Data System office in Mumbai (formerly Bombay) is half a world away from company headquarters in Plano, Tex. Getting to this Indian office requires a bumpy two-hour drive from downtown Mumbai. At every stoplight women dressed in rags and holding emaciated, dull-eyed infants tap car windows to beg. In the slums lining the roads, thousands of people live crammed into dirt-floored rooms, sheltered from monsoon rains by plastic sheets.

At the end of the drive is a heavily guarded, new office tower that rises above the slums. This is where Amit, 24, works. "This is Andy. How may I help you?" he says politely, hour after hour, to the Midwesterners who have forgotten their e-mail passwords or need the phone number of a colleague. EDS (nyse: EDS - news - people ) hired Amit and 500 of his colleagues--young men and women dressed in khakis or saris--to answer phone calls and e-mails on behalf of American companies that have outsourced tech work or customer service calls to EDS.

Amit and colleagues are paid $1.25 an hour. His counterpart in the U.S. would get $10. On that difference rests whether or not EDS can wiggle itself out of deep trouble. Victimized by cheap outsourcing by competitors, EDS is playing the low-cost-labor game itself now. It is rushing to hire thousands of mostly Asian college graduates like Amit, who are desperate for the kinds of jobs found in the U.S. Frantic to cut costs, EDSplans to hire 13,800 workers by the end of next year--a tenth of its current global work force of 137,000--in low-wage countries like India, Malaysia, Hungary and Mexico, places where starting pay is as low as $2,400 a year. Meanwhile, EDS plans to lay off at least 2,750 higher-paid workers, mostly in the U.S. and Europe.

Companies as varied as General Electric (nyse: GE - news - people ) and Morgan Stanley (nyse: MWD - news - people ) are making the same calculation. White-collar jobs--in engineering, programming and accounting--are leaving America's shores for low-cost locales at a pace of nearly 4,000 a week, according to Forrester Research. The U.S., Europe and Japan combined are losing 600,000 a year, says McKinsey & Co."

Elwood

(09/21/2003; 09:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109100)

$$$$ $379.8 $$$$

;

Alberta Rose

(09/21/2003; 09:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109101)

*****$376.30*****

This Oaken Table is indeed a valuable resource. It was here that I first learned of the inflation that results when governments not under the disciple of a gold standard inflate the currency. It was here that I first learned of the conspiracy to devalue gold to facilitate a strong US dollar policy. I learned how to protect myself from the confiscation in buying power from that inflation. I am trying to spread the word, but it is hard going; people are used to thinking in dollar terms and have a difficult time grasping the fact that gold is a store of value and not a commodity. I come here to find the reasoned arguments that will convince my friends and family of the danger of fiat currency and the importance of gold and silver in protected assets that they have spent a life-time building. And here I find up-to-date information on how the gold war is progressing. This is the premier site for understanding the philosophy that helps me to understand how gold functions in the economy and how lack of gold cripples the whole financial system. Many thanks!

canamami

(09/21/2003; 09:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109102)

$$$$$$$381.70$$$$$$$

I believe the Table is a valuable resource because it exposes readers, especially North Americans, to a different take on currencies and world trade, and particularly on the desire of the rest of the world to find an alternative to the US dollar for the purposes of denominating world trade, and as a means of savings.

In short, the Table provides an opportunity to read "outside the box" thinking on gold, world trade, and the "currency war". The Table also has me assessing world events to ascertain whether the great paradigm shift predicted by FOA is at hand. (If I had had the time to craft a quality essay, the theme of my essay would have been: Can a paradigm shift in reserve currencies be adequately described by the terms "bull market" or "bear market"?

Gold Graber

(09/21/2003; 09:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109103)

****The New Bull Market In Gold? Yes****

I am new to the gold market, but I believe it is easy to see that gold is in for good times to come. With the over-inflated state of the stock market, the sad shape of the U.S. dollar and a government print more like mad, I just can see a reason not to be in gold.

$$$$376.5$$$$

I find the wisdom in this forum to be a great asset, which I believe will increase as the economy continues to erode. As more and more people look to protect there assets, I believe there will be an increase in the amount of followers at this site as well as an increase in the need for good information for the beginners. This site has been a good education for me so far, and for that I thank you!

21mabry

(09/21/2003; 09:57:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109104)

Compartive Advantage

Dollar Bill, your last post just about says it all.David Ricardo wrote about comparative advantages many years ago.Someone who is true free market believer would support the white collar jobs moving offshore as these countries can do the job cheaper.I just can not bring myself to be a true freemarketer coming from a working class background I have seen first hand the pain it causes.In the long run is it overall good for the world economy most probably yes.I always think of the early automobile and the pain it caused for blacksmiths and coach and wagon makers,was the auto good for the economyin the long run yes,but it caused short term pain also.Can the same standards be applied to services as well as goods? I do not know the answer to that.21

Skydog

(09/21/2003; 10:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109105)

$$$$386.5$$$$

Three years ago after following the postings of FOA/Another, ORO et al, I made the decision to dump a high-tech flyer called Extreme Networks (it was up almost 400% at the time) and buy my first gold at $261.25.

Do I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource? With the closing price of gold on Friday @$381.10.�go figure!

CoBra(too)

(09/21/2003; 10:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109106)

$$$$ 396.20 $$$$

First of all I'd want to express my gratitude and as well my congratulations to MK and all, who've been involved in making this superb site to what it has become today.

Even, as we all miss some excellent posters from the past we rest assured in the knowledge that some predictions, particularily from giants like A/FOA, Ari, Aragorn and some of equal calibre are playing out in full view.

As some of the oldtimers may remember, that I have frequently taken detours from the main trail, by investing in some well researched gold in the ground, in order to complement my position of reality - I have to admit - it worked. At least up 'till recently. And from here on I wouldn't advise any initiates to follow my experience. It's become pretty late in the day of the US $ hegemony and it's time is growing short.

Just listened to Jim Puplava's broadcast and interview with Nasser Saber, the author of "Speculative Capital" - The Invisible Hand of Global Finance. Extra-ordinary insights into today's manipulative financial markets and the "idiotic mathematical" nonsense of Black-Sholes derivative risk management theories.

cb2

PS: @ Gandy the Wizard - sorry for missing the contest - have been at a family jamboree from all over the globe the last few days ... and just came back this afternoon. A wonderful experience to re-meet 5 generations of your own roots, now scattered around the globe under Babylonian circumstances. A very big bonus was a cousin of my wife, Christoph, who is now Cardinal Arch-Bishop of Vienna and graced the crowd with his presence and a beautiful Friday eveneing mass at the 'Sonntagberg' Basilika, built in the early 1700' by Jacob Prandtauer...

physicalman

(09/21/2003; 10:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109107)

*******THE NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD- YES!!!*******

After reading the pint of beer and oz. of silver posts this morning, i now truly feel that we are in a bull market for gold( and also silver) but still in the very early stages. I will try to show this using some historical wage and price comparisons from 1900 (pre federal reserve ) to 2003. Please bear with me as i try to show why anyone who is skeptical or is underfunded in the precious metals area should accumulate physical holdings as quickly as possible.
1) Wages: The average wage for a male worker in 1900 was about $1.00 in 1900 (which was in gold or silver coin or banknotes redeemable for an equal amount ) I believe that the average per capital wage in the US is around $37,000 orabout $100.00 per day now bt payable in paper(fiat) dollars backed by nothing but promises of future taxation and the assets of the US (private and public, private by taxation).
So now lets convert our fiat for real money and see where we stand. Say silver through our fine host here is around $6.00 per oz. including shipping. Take 50% of our fiat away for taxation and we are left with 50 bucks ( almost no taxes were levied against the common worker in 1900) Hmmm? We are now getting paid 8 oz. of .999 silver every day instead of one 90% silver dollar a day. Now lets take gold at say 400 an oz. with shipping at 50 bucks a day and you are earning a oz. of gold .999 every 8 days compared to 1 dollar in 1900 taking 20.69 days to earn an oz. of .9167 gold. Take away taxes and we are now earning an oz. of AU every four days or 16 oz. of silver (on average)
2) price comparisions: Lets take a loaf of bread as an indicator( beer is liquid bread hehe!) In 1900 loaf of bread was 3 to 5 cents, so will use 5 cents . An oz. of gold at 20.69 whould buy 513 loaves of bread, silver would buy 20 loaves. In 2003 with bread at an average of about 2.00 a loaf an oz. of AU will get 200 loaves and oz. of AG will only buy 3. Now lets look at homes. Average price of a regular house (to build or buy) in 1900 was 500-700 dollars. That come out to 25 to 35 oz. of AU or 500 to 700 oz. of AG. Lets take a medium home price now of 140,000 in fiat dollars and convert it to precious metals. It now takes 350 oz. of AU or 23,500 oz. of AG to buy a home.
I could give thousands of more examples but i think food and shelter serve as the best examples. Are gold and silver underpriced and food and shelter overpriced? Both are! Both are in the early stages of readjustment and to either benefit (profit) or just protect your wealth you nedd to be in as early as possible.
I have written this as an example for many newcomers, lurkers and fence-sitters. It is also interesting in a point that if i can see this that those in power have also and are using, have used this simple comparison to switch from fiat to real money. Join the big guys and gals and the little ones to as myself and start a accumulation program as BB would say Precious metals,emergency cash, basic nessecities and self-defense. PROTECT YOURSELF!!!

Elwood

(09/21/2003; 10:32:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109108)

$$$$ $379.8 $$$$

oopsThis board is an important resouce because there is an army of gold bugs out there who will post important happenings in the gold market here. MK, Black Blade, Gandalf and all the rest; you know who you are. My hat's off to you.

Elwood

physicalman

(09/21/2003; 10:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109109)

*******414.7*******

This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is a tremendous resource for myself as i have been able to find here truth when surrounded by censorship and deception and constructive critiscism when awry.

Profit Next Quarter

(09/21/2003; 10:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109111)

************ $397 ***************

Yes gold will be in a bull market for years to come. Economic, political, geopolitical and social chickens will be coming to roost sooner than later. When the dust clears all will look to gold for stability and liquidity.

Cavan Man

(09/21/2003; 11:04:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109112)

@CB2

Dear friend, you never cease to amaze me! Are you throwing in the towel? Late bloomers (I am) always are worth waiting for yes?

Profit Next Quarter

(09/21/2003; 11:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109113)

Why the forum is beneficial and a resource to me

At the forum a get a diverse mix of opinions, facts, and news without the blatant censorship of the traditional media. Without having to sift through tons of worthless data I can get to what's important to me as an investor and consumer of world and US economic and sometimes political and social news/commentary. It is also highly valuable to hear from average people sounding of on matters of importance without a severe moderator dulling the message. For these reasons I continue to lurk and learn.

Druid

(09/21/2003; 11:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109114)

21mabry (9/21/03; 09:57:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109104)

"Amit and colleagues are paid $1.25 an hour. His counterpart in the U.S. would get $10. On that difference rests whether or not EDS can wiggle itself out of deep trouble. Victimized by cheap outsourcing by competitors, EDS is playing the low-cost-labor game itself now. It is rushing to hire thousands of mostly Asian college graduates like Amit, who are desperate for the kinds of jobs found in the U.S. Frantic to cut costs, EDSplans to hire 13,800 workers by the end of next year--a tenth of its current global work force of 137,000--in low-wage countries like India, Malaysia, Hungary and Mexico, places where starting pay is as low as $2,400 a year. Meanwhile, EDS plans to lay off at least 2,750 higher-paid workers, mostly in the U.S. and Europe."

Druid: 21Mabry, this has more to do with banking and financial manipulation then genius, skill and productivity advantages. This is a printing press policy issue not a productive one of "Comparative Advantage." We're cannabalizing ourselves in order to keep ourselves healthy and competitive. Here's an interesting excersize, take $1.25 and grow it(compound it) at 3% annually for 30 years(a working generation) and see what the resultant figure is. When you arrive at the future figure compare it to the $10 wage rate(being held constant for this problem)for the same amount of time. Now somehow, the differential in these figures is, in theory, supposed to be ironed out in the FOREX market in order to smooth things out along the way and convince everybody that life is just peachy as piped through the parrot box(CNBC). Now, we have had a good 30 years worth of experimentation to "test" this theory and it appears that it is not working according to PLAN!(the distribution of wealth is a little skewed). By a shekel and retire a banker.

401

(09/21/2003; 11:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109115)

$$$$$388.10$$$$$$$$ The New Bull Market In Gold? YES

The rise from 252/oz to 380/oz is a signifcant confirmation of a long term bull market. Even though many financial radar screens have not yet pick up on this move, or choose not to,the best is yet to come.A investment opportunity of a lifetime is at hand. Just remember,You have to be in to win!

Wky_Woodsman

(09/21/2003; 11:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109116)

$$$$394$$$$

The reason I come to the old oaken tableround is to hear words of truth regarding the economy and its monetary lifeblood. Only one in a thousand understands that GOLDistruth. Walking the woods, there is little likelihood of coming upon the one in a thousand who understands. So my cyber fellow knights nourish me. Thank you all, fine Sirs. And a hearty
congrats on the anniversary of the Forum.
Wky

Gandalf the White

(09/21/2003; 11:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109118)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

POG Contest is NOW OFFICALLY CLOSED !!!5th Forum Birthday Anniversary POG CONTEST
OFFICAL Final listing of Entries !
We now await the Monday 9/22/03 COMEX (GC3Z) Settlement price to determine the WINNERS !

$$$ $8,752.0 $$$ The Invisible Hand (9/15/03; 02:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108657

$$$$ $430.0 $$$$ silvercollector (9/21/03; 04:28:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109089

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Zhisheng (9/10/03; 23:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108492

$$$$ $414.7 $$$$ physicalman (9/21/03; 10:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 109109

$$$$ $412.0 $$$$ Caradoc (09/19/03; 18:29:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108981

$$$$ $402.4 $$$$ Aurion (09/17/03; 14:40:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 108799

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ Sundeck (9/21/03; 05:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 109093

$$$$ $397.0 $$$$ Profit Next Quarter (9/21/03; 10:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 109111

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Druid (09/20/03; 00:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 108999

$$$$ $396.1 $$$$ CoBra(too) (9/21/03; 10:16:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109106)--

$$$$ $395.1 $$$$ ha_tey_o (09/15/03; 21:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108690

$$$$ $394.0 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (9/21/03; 11:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 109116)

$$$$ $393.3 $$$$ slingshot (9/11/03; 00:06:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108494

$$$$ $392.5 $$$$ second wind (9/17/03; 07:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108770

$$$$ $391.0 $$$$ Ananse (9/20/03; 09:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 109022

$$$$ $390.5 $$$$ mdgc (9/20/03; 23:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109081

$$$$ $390.1 $$$$ Socrates964 (9/18/03; 19:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 108893
$$$$ $390.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (9/10/03; 22:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108488

$$$$ $389.6 $$$$ otish mountain (9/20/03; 09:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 109021

$$$$ $389.1 $$$$ Operative (09/19/03; 16:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 108970

$$$$ $388.9 $$$$ timbervision (9/20/03; 12:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109042
$$$$ $388.8 $$$$ Shanti (09/20/03; 03:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109003

$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568

$$$$ $388.2 $$$$ Waverider (9/20/03; 17:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109062
$$$$ $388.1 $$$$ 401 (9/21/03; 11:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109115)-

$$$$ $387.9 $$$$ steady (09/17/03; 19:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108811

$$$$ $387.5 $$$$ Shermag (9/21/03; 08:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109097)

$$$$ $387.1 $$$$ Clink! (9/19/03; 14:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108954

$$$$ $386.7 $$$$ VanRip (9/19/03; 12:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108924

$$$$ $386.5 $$$$ Skydog (9/21/03; 10:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109105)

$$$$ $386.2 $$$$ Joanne (9/19/03; 14:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108953

$$$$ $385.9 $$$$ Boilermaker (9/21/03; 08:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 109098

$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857

$$$$ $385.2 $$$$ R Powell (9/20/03; 20:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 109069

$$$$ $384.8 $$$$ Goldendome (9/20/03; 19:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109067

$$$$ $384.6 $$$$ Yukon (9/20/03; 21:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109073

$$$$ $384.3 $$$$ Speedy (9/21/03; 07:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 109096

$$$$ $384.1 $$$$ Jing Zu (9/19/03; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108921

$$$$ $383.7 $$$$ seagull (9/20/03; 16:04:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109056

$$$$ $383.3 $$$$ Gonlyold (09/17/03; 01:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 108762
$$$$ $383.2 $$$$ Casey (09/12/03; 14:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 108580

$$$$ $383.0 $$$$ Tevye (9/20/03; 09:07:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109018

$$$$ $382.5 $$$$ a nation of one (9/19/03; 13:11:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 108930

$$$$ $382.2 $$$$ RobotGuy (9/18/03; 11:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108864

$$$$ $382.0 $$$$ alkahulik (9/18/03; 11:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108861

$$$$ $381.7 $$$$ canamami (9/21/03; 09:47:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109102)

$$$$ $381.4 $$$$ Remarx (9/19/03; 07:39:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108907

$$$$ $381.2 $$$$ Tate (9/19/03; 10:00:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108912

$$$$ $381.0 $$$$ sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618

$$$$ $380.7 $$$$ Magister Aurelius (9/19/03; 13:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108931

$$$$ $380.5 $$$$ contrarian (9/19/03; 11:18:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108917

$$$$ $380.3 $$$$ ageka (9/20/03; 12:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 109041
$$$$ $380.2 $$$$ Cougar (9/20/03; 16:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109057

$$$$ $380.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (09/12/03; 23:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108591

$$$$ $379.8 $$$$ Elwood (9/21/03; 09:05:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 109100)

$$$$ $379.5 $$$$ Bound Spirit (9/20/03; 22:54:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109080

$$$$ $379.3 $$$$ Goldbug 1 (09/19/03; 17:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108977
$$$$ $379.2 $$$$ goldenpeace (09/17/03; 20:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108816

$$$$ $379.0 $$$$ Gondolin (09/17/03; 10:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 108780

$$$$ $378.8 $$$$ Smeagol (09/16/03; 18:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 108739

$$$$ $378.6 $$$$ heavy mettle (09/16/03; 17:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108737
$$$$ $378.5 $$$$ ginsenghi (9/19/03; 13:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 108943

$$$$ $378.2 $$$$ Dollar Bill (9/21/03; 05:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109090)-
$$$$ $378.1 $$$$ phil288 (9/20/03; 11:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109035

$$$$ $377.9 $$$$ Cuda (9/19/03; 03:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108903

$$$$ $377.0 $$$$ DryWasher (9/15/03; 11:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 108669

$$$$ $376.5 $$$$ Gold Graber (9/21/03; 09:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109103

$$$$ $376.3 $$$$ Alberta Rose (9/21/03; 09:41:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 109101

$$$$ $376.0 $$$$ Toolie (9/18/03; 18:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108891

$$$$ $375.7 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (09/17/03; 19:51:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108812

$$$$ $375.5 $$$$ 7nomads (9/20/03; 18:26:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109065

$$$$ $373.2 $$$$ specie-man (09/17/03; 11:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108789

$$$$ $371.0 $$$$ J-Bullion (9/18/03; 10:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108851

$$$$ $368.5 $$$$ cockerel1 (9/13/03; 21:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108611

$$$$ $364.7 $$$$ Topaz (09/17/03; 04:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 108765

===
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/21/2003; 12:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109119)

oops --- ONE MORE MINUTE to go before DEADLINE in POG Contest !

<;-)

TownCrier

(09/21/2003; 12:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109120)

Russian CB speaks -- of gold AND oil

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030921/group_russia_gold_1.htmlDUBAI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Russia would like to increase the percentage of foreign exchange reserves it holds in gold but it is not in a position to do any buying at the moment, first deputy governor of the central bank said on Sunday.

Oleg Vyugin also said the central bank cannot move to a more flexible currency regime until an oil stabilisation fund has been set up by the government.

"Our gold reserves... are around seven to eight percent of our total international reserves and actually we think that we have to get at least 10 percent of international reserves," Vyugin told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Dubai.

"We are not in a position to buy at the moment but generally we would like to increase (the gold)... At this moment we are limited because we also have to manage monetary policy."

"Of course our target is a floating exchange rate finally but still we're not in a position to cancel the managed approach because we are waiting for the (oil) stabilisation fund to be effective," he said.

"It will be some sort of guarantee that the correlation between the oil price and the foreign exchange rate will be easier."

The proposed fund would allow Russia, an oil exporter, to save income from oil revenues when crude prices are high to be used when oil revenues fall.

-----(see url for full article)------

Meanwhile, Dutch Central Bank Governor Nout Wellink confirmed that coordination of future central bank gold reallocations (� la the "Washington Agreement") was briefly discussed, "but would only be tackled properly early next year," according to this Reuters report.

Continue to expect bold developments on the gold front. It is only a matter of time before the elite, with an eye on economic stability and welfare, finally tap into the benefits offered by a "wealth effect" of physical gold rising to a more proper (real and rational) market valuation. As an engine of growth, picture a billion Indians and their gold-rich global neighbors suddenly aware that they hold a purchasing power capable to bring their lifestyle into the 21st Century and as the industrialized world ramps up to earn back these precious quantities of gold that can't be supplied by mining.

R.

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 12:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109121)

It's a beautiful day and I'm off to play! After apologizing....

Dear esteemed forum members,

I awoke this morning to a feeling of chagrin regarding my last post (msg. # 109076). What has struck me, as an avid lurker and (thankfully) infrequent poster, is how difficult it is to communicate! I comprehend what I read while I'm reading it...but have not often re-formulated that understanding into new words/expressions (except in casual verbal discussions). Maybe reading/lurking for so long created some pent-up need. However, the lack of experience in forming and communicating cohesive written thoughts is a great deterrent to intelligent communication! So, in essence, my apologies to this wonderful forum for any criticism I may have proffered. I now recognize the enormous thought, time and energy you frequent posters give to your offerings and I highly respect your efforts. Thank you all for your contributions!

Gondolin @ (msg. # 109092): Thank you for your thoughts! Quite true. As to the horse � The horse that has been led to the water could be quite thirsty! A clean, simple trough would allow him to quench his thirst more readily than one overgrown with beautiful yet dense plants. However, I readily concede that that trough need not exist everywhere!

My best to everyone...and thank you again!

GFG

TownCrier

(09/21/2003; 12:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109122)

Making headway?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030921/group_iraq_5.htmlHEADLINE: Iraq to allow full foreign ownership outside oil

DUBAI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S.-controlled Iraq on Sunday unveiled sweeping reforms allowing foreign investors into all sectors except oil, ending 30 years of state economic control.

Iraqi Finance Minister Kamel al-Keylani said on Sunday the reforms would "significantly advance efforts to build a free and open market economy in Iraq", spur economic growth and speed Iraq's re-entry into the international community.

The list of reforms for liberalising foreign investment, the banking sector and taxes and tariffs read like a recipe devised by Washington for a capitalist Iraq.

"Iraq needs jobs, it needs to have growth," a senior U.S. official involved in Iraq's reconstruction said.

...The surprisingly broad measures, which end an era of economic domination under Saddam Hussein and the socialist Baath Party, were aimed at improving global opinion before a donors' conference in Madrid next month.

...the reforms include 100 percent foreign ownership in all sectors except natural resources, excluding current outside participation in Iraq's coveted oil reserves.

"The fact that they ban investment in oil resources is good because it sends the message that America was not only after Iraq's oil," an Arab finance minister who declined to be identified said of the steps. [Randy's note: That is, unless the U.S. maintains hands on a puppet government -- effectively the 51st state of the Union.]

...reforms also include a free transfer of foreign exchange earnings for investors, full central bank independence and relatively free entry for foreign banks into Iraq.

New bank rules were signed in Iraq on Saturday, the U.S. official said. Six foreign banks will get "fast-track" entry into Iraq and full ownership of local banks within five years.

"We are going to have a separate and early ... process to select two of those banks. And we are going to ask those banks to do substantial lending early," he said.

-------(see url for article)------

Touching on an old thread of discussion, you wouldn't REALLY want the substantial lending mentioned here to be gold loans, would you? If you answer yes, then we are in the conflicted domain where the "gold-is-money" banker folks ride roughshod all over the property rights of savers who hold gold as tangible (non-derivatized non-paperized non-inflated non-artificial non-contract-dependent) true wealth.

Give it all some thought if you happily find yourself in a position to enjoy a restful Sunday afternoon.

R.

Dollar Bill

(09/21/2003; 13:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109123)

*>*.........+

Sir 21 Marbry, I thunk about what you and Druid said, and I am stumped in some areas of the big picture, but as I look at my neighborhood, I cant see the future of my freinds who have lost jobs this last year.

We are in a job deflation and any uptick in jobs appears to be caused by companies taking full time jobs away and replaceing them with multiple part time jobs with less pay and benefits. At least that is what I am seeing here.

CoBra(too)

(09/21/2003; 15:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109124)

Post G7 in Dubai

Early indications after the Dubai Meeting has the US dollar tanking hard against the � and Yen.

Let's just wait for GOLD commence trading in the far east ...

... looks like the dyke is penetrated ...

Got Gold? cb2

CoBra(too)

(09/21/2003; 16:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109125)

ESF = OSF

Exchange Stabilization Fund - turning into Oil Stabilization Fund ... Is that were most of the West's Gold has gone? ... You bet! ... and see latest G7 + one - id est Russia ... cb2

Dollar Bill

(09/21/2003; 17:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109126)

^'^

Sir Grateful for Gold, You know, the best thing for lurkers and the rest of us is for us to know that we are not heavily judged here by the regulars. Someone did come a few weeks back and made some disparaging commments, but heck, he admitted to just being an occasional reader.
.I can vividly recall some posts here, and they include some guys just talking about thier own local world.
.I thought your comments about newbies had merit and I'll bet others did too.
.Dont hesitate to hit the post button, no one hits em all.
Look at the baseball guys. One of the proofs that there is a god is that no one is allowed to be smart enough to be perfect. Some distress over that, maybe we all do in turn, but it is actually a really good thing. Otherwise, the occasional perfect person would lord it over the rest of us to "get with it". So, in reading your posts, I only see the value, hell, your post had value.

R Powell

(09/21/2003; 17:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109127)

POG and silver off to a good start !

As usual there are different numbers at different places but Kitco has a $385.1 listing that looks like a decent start to the week.
This early light trading doesn't hold a lot of weight but...

The COT report for last week was postponed to Monday (tomorrow) or Tuesday due to the disruption of Isabel. This may leave many technical traders feeling "blind" going into this week. Maybe we'll see some fireworks?
It is such great fun !

There's an old myth that soybeans and silver trend together. I certainly hope so as I believe soybeans have just started what may be a huge move up. Beans in the teens? Maybe. Early yield reports are horrid. I haven't seen any yield reports for this year's gold or silver crop. I'll report it if I see one.

DummyANI

(09/21/2003; 18:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109128)

Strong Yen is a buried mine damaging paper assets, and assisting GOLD-value.

Manipulated currencies are very tricky, at one time they are strong, and next they are weak.

If investors have a plenty of wealth, they may buy a trush assets.

For Japanese investors, if they want to survive manipulated currency-wars in the front-line of Strong Yen, a paper asset provides no attractiveness. For reasonable investors, the survival strategy is to sell a US-Stocks, sell a US-bonds, sell a paper asset, and buy a GOLD at a cheap price.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 18:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109129)

Clink 9/20/03 (msg. #109053)

Thank you for re-posting specie-man's 9/8/03 post (msg. # 108327). I read it with much appreciation!

As a primer 101 for new gold investors, it certainly covers many aspects. While it doesn't speak directly to those who are still wondering "why buy gold?" it does cover much. I guess one thing that hangs up my mind in terms of new investors is: yes, we can address the "gold price explosion" (but unfortunately, it hasn't exploded as greatly as the current stock market boom). IMO too many readers equate the rise in the price of gold to, say, a rise in the NASDAQ. Or a rise in their housing prices the past few years. So, unless directly addressed (and not just implied), these people STILL don't get the REAL reason to hold PHYSICAL gold and silver. They're still just looking at percentage gains and profits in fiat dollars, IMO.

So, the paper gold market crumbles and the Middle East holds a huge portion of the physical gold. I'm still searching for a REASON (explained to them) for the average American to care!

In my mind, this has been probably the greatest failing of the World Gold Council (WGC). I've never particularly cared for them (cabal plants?). But, to have TOTALLY missed the opportunity to educate the public is inexcusable! They went from the "gold as jewelry" stance straight to "gold as an exchange traded fund" stance! They TOTALLY (conveniently) ignored educating any of the public on the value of and how to buy PHYSICAL gold (the "gold as an investment" stance)! Totally bypassed the ONE THING that would add much safety and security to every investor's portfolio/life!!

So, GATA et al., Blanchard v. Barrick, etc. may go on. But, the average American still has absolutely NO CLUE as to WHY gold is so important. They simply don't receive the basics often enough, spoken in as many ways as possible to reach everyone. Isn't that a premise of education? Say the same thing in so many different ways that it will eventually get through to most everyone?

So, at this point, IMO the public doesn't and won't care about gold price suppression because they don't fundamentally understand what fractional reserve banking (and the Federal Reserve Bank and the fiat dollar printing) is and has done in order to gain its foothold in the U.S. Quoting old patriots about the evils of central banks won't reach them. Showing more corporate malfeasance won't penetrate through all the other corporate theft that has made them dumb down and turn a deaf ear. Not until they are willing to give up the misguided hope of "easy money" profits through the stock market, or the illusive hoped-for profit (or just breaking-even) of the bond market, or are told of how that little paper dollar in their hand is disintegrating before their eyes...not until SOMETHING gut level reaches them will they give up old ideas and ways. I just hate to think that society will have to go so very low before so many decent people (sheeple, yes, but many have the ability to be more) have a fighting chance to save themselves!

Again, the WGC COULD have done a great service to gold... but it didn't!

Lady GFG

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 18:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109130)

When the BOJ zips its purse strings...

MY, my! Is the dollar's steep decline (currently 94.08) and gold's steep incline (currently up 5.50 at 386.60) simply a result of Japan not selling yen and buying US$? I can't really tell a big appreciation of other currencies over the US$...only gold. We need more of those G-7 meetings! Any more enlightened input?

Interesting night. Too bad I'm going to need my sleep!!

DummyANI

(09/21/2003; 19:07:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109131)

God bless Japanese reasonable investors to buy GOLD

God bless Japanese reasonable investors to buy GOLD.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Paper Avalanche

(09/21/2003; 19:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109132)

Is a LACK of renewal of the WA MORE impactful?

With POG going vertical tonight one cannot help but wonder if an "agreement" may have been reached at Dubai that COULD NOT be communicated to the financial markets. If it was decided that the CB's would sell far less than 400 tons/year, which would be less disruptive to the financial markets? To announce said agreement or to keep it hush hush. I would imagine the latter would provide relatively more orderly gold and currency markets. This is how I interpret the results of the meeting this weekend. People being what they are, I further expect the action tonight is a result of a ripple action by those in the "know" (those having ties to those who may actually have been in Dubai) front running the herd which is soon to clammor for the ETF's and other gold investments in the very near future.

One other watershed event regarding gold happened this weekend. My parents are in town visiting us for the weekend. I have been doing everything in my power to get them into gold for the past three plus years. My previous efforts have been met with silence and disregard until tonight. However, tonight my dad asked that I email him the link to usagold so that he could contact our gracious host to obtain physical gold. I have always said that the day my parents "get it" that it would be the true start of the secular bull market in gold. IMO, the combination of the Dubai meeting and the events at my house this weekend herald the beginning of next stage in the gold bull market.

We have enjoyed 20% gains / year for the last three years. I beleive that we will enjoy 50%-100% gains for the next five to ten years until we go parabolic.

Take care all. This is too fun!

BTW, happy fifth anniversary Michael! This site has been one of the most impactful things that I have ever discovered in my journey of self-education. I truly believe that this site is the modern day equivilant of Thomas Paine's "Common Sense" pamphlets. Thank you very much for hosting such a tremendous forum and educational resource for us all.

PAPER AVALANCHE

(09/21/2003; 19:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109133)

________ At the Castle, somewhere near the Great Hall...

Gandalf, summon the Court of Judges, bring it all to the Grand Reference Room and Libary where we'll sort things out. Marie, have you seen my reading glasses?................What's that, you say I misplaced them last week and been at a loss ever since.......Drat! What a time for that......Well, they're around this Castle somewhere. The Judges are already there awaiting us and anxious to begin?? ....... Gandalf, let's be on our way, my wizardrous friend....We have work to do!! What's that, you say, O Great Wizard of The Table Round? You have looked into your cystal ball and you already know who won?? Both contests?? Well, well, my friend. So why do we even bother with judging this contest or waiting for tomorrow's close?? HA! Got you on that one, didn't I? Out with it, Gandalf....Please tell all.... Good gosh, you say you can't tell me? Breaks the Ancient Code of Wizards???? We must discuss that over those tankards of ale I see Black Blade drawing yonder........ Yes, yes, Marie, I do agree this contest should be enshrined as a whole in that dusty, venerable Hall of Fame you and so many of the Hobbits like so much. I especially appreciated all the heady things the posters said about this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore. Inspirational, I tell you..... Absolutely inspirational ........For certes, what a Contest, what a week!..............What's gold doing this evening anyway? It's up $4? Towncrier, did you just say it's up OVER $4?? Oh my. Let's try to get a hold of FOA. Find out what's going on......Currencies? You say this has to do with currencies, TC?? Dubai, you say?? Where's Dubai?........ (Voices fade, blend in ancient stone walls.)........
______

I'd like to voice my thanks for the great participation in the essay and price guessing contests. This appears to me to be the strongest participation we have ever seen for a contest at this esteemed Table. This truly has become an important gathering place for gold advocates and owners -- a true university of expression and learning. Now if the Court of Judges can only find the wisdom to pick a winner in the essay contest amidst so many compelling entries.

If any of you saw a particularly good entry in the essay contest you would like to speak for, please give our judge's your input. It could tip the scales. This is going to be a tough one.......

By the way with much pressure from those at the Castle and certain wizards (and Hobbits) who will go un-named, I hereby nominate the entire contest to the Hall of Fame.

Are there any seconds??

(09/21/2003; 19:41:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109134)

Gratis

We all owe a debt of gratitude to the good wizard for doing a fine job again moderating the contest. Also, thanks to Randy for the yeoman job behind the scenes getting all the new posters registered and codes issued. I know how hectic these contests are. Thanks, fellas.

Gandalf the White

(09/21/2003; 19:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109135)

I hereby SECOND your proposal for the ESSAY CONTEST ENTRIES to the "Hall of FAME"

BUT, Sir MK, You will need to EXCAVATE a MUCH LARGER ROOM !
Sooooo many GREAT Essays !
<;-)

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 20:08:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109136)

Gold v. Starvation -- DryWasher, Robert et al.

Your earlier posts/discussions mentioning gold as it relates to starvation prompted me to go off on a tangent...

I don't remember if it was here or elsewhere where I saw a post relating to genetically engineered SEEDS that were programmed to TERMINATE after one year of planting (i.e., one germination and plant and, poof! no seed left to re-plant for future crops) (Monsanto's genius at work). A simple google search provides some alarming and enlightening links!

So, conspiracy theories and tin-hat in hand, my mind has now included Monsanto et al. in the "globalisation-NWO" scheme that now includes programmed starvation (Africa, and India if they haven't completely rejected Monsanto's "help," for starters). What is doubly alarming about Monsanto is its patents. If what I read is true, their patented genetically modified (GM) plants/seeds have no containment abilities. So, thanks to winds, insects and life in general, this GM plant can cross-pollinate with other, natural, plants and "take over." Then, Monsanto goes out and has, as argued in Court, through its patents taken over the "rights" to ALL plants that contain ANY of their genetically engineered cells. If I am a farmer who does NOT use Monsanto but Monsanto plants (thanks to neighboring farmers) have spread to my field...Monsanto OWNS my plants, harvest and, ultimately, farm! So, in other words, Monsanto and co-horts, by coercion, extortion and threats are taking over almost ALL of the farming in North America! Soybeans, canola, cotton, maize...

So, back to starvation. Sell a poor country some seeds. They plant and harvest. Then, the very next year they HAVE to buy more patented seeds from you...they can't grow their own! Even if they had saved natural seeds of their own, those would eventually become contaminated by the GM plants and rendered useless. Ultimately, the entire world has to buy THE MEANS OF THEIR FOOD PRODUCTION from you (Monsanto). You hold the "patents" to the global production of all food, thanks to your genetically engineered seeds. And there is NO protection from contamination.

I guess this is one way to deal with over-population. AIDS doesn't seem to have accomplished enough. Africa (yes, the cross-pollination would spread South) does have a few resources worth taking once all those pesky people are gone.

Nevertheless, I WILL hold each and every ounce of gold I own! Even if it ONLY buys me a meal...that would be a meal I would probably not be able to buy with much else. Unless Monsanto finds a way to make fiat dollars vitamin-enriched.

Jeez, I dread my dreams tonight....

Sweet dreams, y'all!

Lady GFG

Clink!

(09/21/2003; 20:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109137)

@mk

Well, of coursse, we ssaw a number of posstss that had uss in sstitchess, yess.....

21mabry

(09/21/2003; 21:09:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109138)

60 minutes

Tonight 60 minutes exposed the absolute travesty going on in the world.It ran a story on key goverment officials and there relationship to large corporations.In particular Vice President Chennys relationship with haliburton.The monetary numbers are staggering,3 star generals given jobs as ceo's in defense contractors companies.Why did 60 minutes run this story I do not know,I think it was allowed to be shown because the powers that be said lets tell the american public what were doin.Then they said don't worry the vast majority only care about the NFL and beer.What a travesty this story was,the founding fathers are turning over in their graves.21

Ananse

(09/21/2003; 21:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109139)

Sources of heirloom seeds and animals

www.seedsavors.orgTo Grateful for Gold and others who have mentioned Monsanto and GM crops:

What is being done to agriculture is very similar to what is being done to PMs. It is appalling. The link above and the one following are to two non-profits who work to save and manintain the genetic pool upon which agriculture needs. For animals: www.albc-usa.org

DummyANI

(09/21/2003; 22:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109140)

Nikkei225 down 410 point at JST:13.00. Sell a paper asset.

Nikkei225 down 410 point at JST:13.00. Sell a paper asset.Nikkei225 down 410 point at JST:13.00. Sell a paper asset.

CRB index will be ignited by a weak dollar. This instructs investors to sell a paper asset.

Volcano Mt. Comex-Gold will be erupted by an overflowed trush currencies.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Carl H

(09/21/2003; 22:51:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109141)

Treasury's Fisher a possibility to lead NYSE-NYT

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030920/financial_nyse_fisher_1.html?--- Begin Snip ---

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Directors of the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) identified Peter Fisher, the Treasury Department's under secretary for domestic finance, as a possible candidate to lead the exchange, the New York Times said on Saturday.

--- End Snip ---
--- Suppress Gag ---

Fisher belongs in jail for his involvement in rigging the Gold, Silver and Stock markets. He should not be running the NYSE.

Got Physical Gold?

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 23:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109142)

Dollar Bill @ msg. #109126

Thank you for your kind words (even when you thought I was a "sir" and not a "lady"). For better or worse, for now, I seem to be willing to hit the "Submit Message" button with impunity! I suspect that it is my unconscious way of expressing some sense of urgency and a feeling of "it's different this time" with gold and silver RIGHT NOW.

Your acceptance did help me feel more at home posting here, in my own way with my own feelings. I appreciate that very much. My mind does loop around in various circles and what I may post wlll probably not always be on topic or intelligent. However, as far as I can tell, there is not much in life that lies outside of the need for survival. And, color me a silly fool, but I'm in the camp (the very same one as those global power mongers/manipulators) that believes PHYSICAL gold and silver will at least give me a tad more bargaining power.

Nope, I can't eat gold (or silver). But I betcha that someone who may have more than they can eat would surely trade me some of it for some of my gold or silver. Now, that's a far cry from the home that I'm planning on spending some of my gold on (in the future). But, it is a sterling example of the versatility and power of gold. If things deteriorate so much that buying my dream home with my gold goes by the wayside...that very gold will buy me some food (and much more). Pity, that the paper US$ will get lost in the shuffle...or the "avalanche" of paper that one of our knight's name predicts.

My best,

Lady GFG

Waverider

(09/21/2003; 23:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109143)

Nikkei sinks four percent on Takenaka report

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030922/markets_japan_stocks_1.htmlSnip:
"TOKYO, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average was down four percent in early Monday afternoon trade as bank shares reversed morning gains after a report that Heizo Takenaka would be replaced as financial services minister in charge of banking."

Waverider: Is this the result of pressure from the G7?

GratefulForGold

(09/21/2003; 23:35:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109144)

Misc. before I go to bed...

Ananse @ msg. #109139: Thank you for your input. I haven't had time to explore their site yet but look forward to it. BTW, the link is www.seedsavers.org. Your link posted had "savors" which led nowhere. I just mention this in case anyone else tries to go there and gives up.

It is indeed alarming when we get down to food supply. I shudder to think about what horrors I will discover when I start researching what they are doing with our water supplies. Procrastination sometimes preserves sanity.

mabry21 @109138 -- 60 Minutes. Hmmm. Why am I so cynical that I have to wonder "why" they show anything relevant on TV? I guess my off-the-top conclusion is that it is some of the "appearance" of differences that they are trying to convey regarding Democrats/Republicans. There is a theory that they (the global powers, whoever they are) will let Bush jr. go by the wayside, the same as poppa. If that is their game plan, the 60 Minutes show would be a good foundation upon which to build his demise. But, you're right, most Americans are too busy watching NFL or their "reality" garbage to cognize reality...even when it bites them in inappropriate places.

Goodnight (really)!

Lady GFG

Gandalf the White

(09/21/2003; 23:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109145)

Anybody notice that DOWN GAP in the good ol'e US$ ?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d1Not a pretty Chart !
<;-(

Waverider

(09/22/2003; 00:00:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109146)

Gandy

Yes....the US$ has fallen below the 50Day MA...we're witnessing free-fall - yes?! Spot is frisky tonight - up over $6.00 at the moment in Sydney - London opens in about one hour - thoughts on how Spot will react in London? Yes Sir Gandalf...you and Sir MK *know* how Spot 'n Spike just *love* these CONTESTS!!!

Liberty Head

(09/22/2003; 00:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109147)

Thought Trail On Values

Fully conscious or otherwise, we each have our own collection of values.
Fully conscious or otherwise, our values influence our behavior.
The material forms we manifest are a reflection of our values.
The systems we use to conduct commerce also reflect the underlying values.
Those who place high value on integrity, individuality, reason and logic, will likely prefer gold and commodity based free-market systems, over fiat currencies and manipulated market systems.
Sometimes our values place us in an uncomfortable, minority position. Though the tides may be rising against us, we stay the course dictated by our values.
A great graphic of this minority position is found in the symbol of Yin-Yang.
There are two opposing hemispheres, each containing the seed of it's opposite.
The seed is a minority position within its hemisphere, however it's relevance is not minor.
This forum is a great place for us "seeds of the opposite" to congregate and nurture our fellow "seeds". The other hemisphere waits! J

Best Wishes

NoEyeSee(+_+)

(09/22/2003; 00:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109148)

$440 as a reasonable target!

Since Gold close over $280 on Friday for the very first time! A break of this resistance (from $319 low) points to a target of $440. Don't miss the boat!

Sept. is a month for windows dressing, Oct is traditionally a "risky" month for stock (as well as gold funds). Therefore, within the coming 2 weeks, there will be OK!^_^ Forever goldbug!

Gandalf the White

(09/22/2003; 00:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109149)

Hold onto your SURFBOARD, Lady Waverider !!

SURF's UP !
SPARKS are showing in the Crystal Ball and many will be on the winning POG Contest number for at least a moment or two.
As Sir Black Blade says --- "Interesting" !!
<;-)

DummyANI

(09/22/2003; 00:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109150)

Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.

Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.Nikkei225 ended down 463 point at JST:15.00. Sell a paper asset.

Volcano Mt. Comex-Gold will be erupted by oversupplied trush currencies.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Elwood

(09/22/2003; 00:33:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109151)

TownCrier (9/21/03; 12:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109120)

The previous Washington Agreement dealt with central bank selling. Perhaps the next one may have some buying in it?

The Russian statements are the first that I can recall that deal with central bank *buying*. Why would a modern day central banker spend good money on what has been widely said to be a stale asset? Who may be next? China?

DummyANI

(09/22/2003; 02:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109152)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c...376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c. 375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c�c377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

silvercollector

(09/22/2003; 03:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109153)

Wow, are we close!

Just peeking at spot on Feb. 5, 2003 (pre-war), looks like $388.80 or thereabouts is the number to beat.

Looks like spot almost touched 388 a few hours ago, looks like 389/390 are stiff resistance.

silvercollector

(09/22/2003; 04:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109154)

Oxymoron

From Headline News:

(first headline)

3 US soldiers killed in central Iraq attacks....

(followed by...)

Interim government declares Iraq open to investors....

(..sounds like Iraq would be a 'solid' investment )

:(

The Invisible Hand

(09/22/2003; 04:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109155)

WA to be extended early next year

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/09/22/cnimf22.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2003/09/22/ixcity.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=99287SNIP from the London Telegraph
Speculation mounted at the end of last week that an agreement would be brokered between central bankers on gold sales.
But Nout Wellink, governor of the Dutch Central Bank, said yesterday there had been a brief and informal discussion, and the subject would be dealt with more fully early next year.

The IHT runs gold article today
http://www.iht.com/articles/110678.html
No mention of WA or Dubai neither of derivatives
SNIP
But gold is a small market, compared with the trillions of dollars invested worldwide in stocks and bonds. That means even a relatively small shift can have a significant effect.

P.S. I'm confident I will win the price guessing contest today.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(09/22/2003; 04:51:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109156)

@Silvercollector - sounds like Iraq would be a 'solid' investment

LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Black Blade

(09/22/2003; 05:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109157)

Ugly Day For Equities

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian and Euroland markets plummet in downward spiral. US equities futures look ugly too. I suspect US investment houses will be looking to prop up the futures prior to the open but so far it looks very "grim".

Meanwhile gold charging ahead by $6 and silver up 10 cents. The official word is that the WA was discussed briefly but word from some "unofficial" sources say that there will be little change and maybe some "very minor" incremental revisions. Whatever else was said is unknown. But the dollar is diving as the most G7 members are ganging up on Japan and their currency market intervention with threats that some members may themselves respond in kind to counter Japan.

Whatever happens nothing much can stop the precious metals now. There may be some pullbacks here and there biut the trend is still positive and sooner or later the shorts (commercials) will be throwing in the towell or will convince the dishonorable Comex and Tocom mangers to screw the small fry like before. Still this is a runaway train and te physical market looks to overwhelm the paper flood.

- Black Blade

Boilermaker

(09/22/2003; 05:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109158)

ESF all hands on deck

As BB reported, looks like a wild day for the markets. ESF boys will be busy plying their "stabilization" schemes. I never cease to be amazed that this is unknown to 99.99% of the population. The day of reckoning gets closer.

Boilermaker

Gondolin

(09/22/2003; 06:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109159)

Grateful for Gold 109121

Your sentiments following your post that caused you 'chagrin' are I am sure understood by all. But see how a debate which raised questions and thoughts followed on. That is the beauty of this site is that all can comment on anothers thoughts and look at each post from a different angle, and generally someone with a better understanding will provide the answer or insight that, as in my case, I am not normally able to fathom with my own limited understanding.

Gondolin

(09/22/2003; 06:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109160)

Rich Powell 109127

Rich, off topic but your reference to Soya Beans was interesting. Many are touting this as the position to be in as China opens up and consumes more poultry, Soya being the staple diet for chickens. Chicken consumption in China is expected to skyrocket as wealth enters the country over the next 5 years. I'm not sure of the exact figures but currently the stats are something like 1 chicken per year consumed by each person, and this is expected to rise eventually to 1 per week then 2 per week which is similar to levels in the West. Is that the next goldmine and an exit strategy for investment once POG escalates and everyone wants to jump on board?

DoubleEagle

(09/22/2003; 07:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109161)

Today's trade

Well, I had a nasty feeling that they were going to drive this down to within a buck of the Friday close. Perhaps I was being pessimistic.

Knallgold

(09/22/2003; 09:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109162)

WA2

We heard out of Dubai that a a WA2 will be officially sometimes next year,probably with more Gold put on sale than the previous 400t/year.Maybe,this gives us a window for the big run?

Then,after Gold trades in the thousands,a Goldsale program not only would look smarter but could back a whole lot more debt!And I mean a real sale,not the WA1 style reshuffling within the CB system.Didn't FOA say after 5 years we will sell some of our Gold??

Gandalf the White

(09/22/2003; 10:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109163)

Progress REPORT !! <;-)

SO FAR TODAY --- The following NINETEEN (19) entrants have been (for at least a moment) the "KING of the HILL" ---

===
$$$$ $389.1 $$$$ Operative (09/19/03; 16:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 108970

$$$$ $388.9 $$$$ timbervision (9/20/03; 12:22:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109042
$$$$ $388.8 $$$$ Shanti (09/20/03; 03:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109003

$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568

$$$$ $388.2 $$$$ Waverider (9/20/03; 17:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109062
$$$$ $388.1 $$$$ 401 (9/21/03; 11:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109115)-

$$$$ $387.9 $$$$ steady (09/17/03; 19:40:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108811

$$$$ $387.5 $$$$ Shermag (9/21/03; 08:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109097)

$$$$ $387.1 $$$$ Clink! (9/19/03; 14:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108954

$$$$ $386.7 $$$$ VanRip (9/19/03; 12:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108924

$$$$ $386.5 $$$$ Skydog (9/21/03; 10:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109105)

$$$$ $386.2 $$$$ Joanne (9/19/03; 14:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 108953

$$$$ $385.9 $$$$ Boilermaker (9/21/03; 08:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 109098

$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Rimh (9/18/03; 11:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 108857

$$$$ $385.2 $$$$ R Powell (9/20/03; 20:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 109069

$$$$ $384.8 $$$$ Goldendome (9/20/03; 19:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109067

$$$$ $384.6 $$$$ Yukon (9/20/03; 21:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109073

$$$$ $384.3 $$$$ Speedy (9/21/03; 07:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 109096

$$$$ $384.1 $$$$ Jing Zu (9/19/03; 12:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 108921
===
Where the SETTLEMENT will end is the QUESTION !
<;-)

steady

(09/22/2003; 10:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109164)

approaching that magical 74 ceiling in the ratio trade!

Rimh

(09/22/2003; 10:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109165)

Nail Biter

This will be a tight race all the way to the close! I can see that my entry, although an optimistic guess for last Thursday, is slowly being left in the dust.

Just want to echo the thoughts of others in thanking our gracious host for the contest, but more so for the ongoing support of this superior forum for which I am much wiser and better educated. The posters here really are the best! Thank you MK, Randy, Gandalf and Black Blade for all your efforts and marvelous insights!

DryWasher

(09/22/2003; 11:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109166)

Lady GratefulForGold (109136 & 109142) Gold v. Starvation.

You have a real talent for being able to express yourself and your views in a clear way that is understandable to all, and I always look forward to reading your posts. I find that in rereading both Roberts posts(109023 & 109077) and my own(109051) on the subject that we seemed to be talking past each other and not really understanding what the other was saying because we each had a different definition of the term "wealth". I was using the dictionary definition "A great quantity of money or valuable possessions." while Robert's definition excludes gold, money, and other non consumables from the definition of the term "wealth". When I reread his posts using his definition of wealth I have no disagreement with his statements. You express the point I failed to get across to Robert very well in your post 109142 to Dollar Bill when you wrote:

"Nope, I can't eat gold (or silver). But I betcha that someone who may have more than they can eat would surely trade me some of it for some of my gold or silver. Now, that's a far cry from the home that I'm planning on spending some of my gold on (in the future). But, it is a sterling example of the versatility and power of gold. If things deteriorate so much that buying my dream home with my gold goes by the wayside...that very gold will buy me some food (and much more). Pity, that the paper US$ will get lost in the shuffle...or the "avalanche" of paper that one of our knight's name predicts."

By the way, your very passionate rant on the subject of genetically engineered seeds certainly gives one food (genetically engineered?) for thought. (Smile, or maybe Groan)

Please let me add my name to the list of those encouraging you to post because you really do have a lot of value to add to this great forum.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/22/2003; 11:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109167)

Your source for bullion at just one percent over dealer cost; free shipping on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!

R Powell

(09/22/2003; 11:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109168)

Soybeans, currencies and a house for sale

Gondolin: my reference yesterday to soybeans was meant as a crude attempt at humor althought I do believe that soybeans along with almost all commodities will rise in dollar value as the relative strength of the dollar falls. This will make our beans more affordable to the Chinese and the rest of the world. Weather has hurt the yield on our bean crop and the Chinese have expanded their soybean crushing capacity (built plants). As the Wal-mart to the world, imho the Chinese will also be buying our cotton, even though the USDA is expecting only a 1% increase in cotton exports for 2003-2004. This is of course, NOT investment advice.

As for relating this to the POG, it comes under the category of currency exchange which will effect the price of all exports/imports. POG reacted immediately last night with the currencies! Treasury secretary Snow felt the need to reiterate today that the official policy is still a strong dollar policy. Do politicians ever tell less than the truth?

Art Cashin (analyst for CNBC) stated today that 46% of treasuries are (held) bought by foreign investors. He implied that if US debt becomes less desireable to these foreign buyers, then bond prices will fall. This sounds plausible, no? Is this the beginning of public awareness (at least to the bond market) that the USA can NOT indefinitely export its monetary inflation to sustain its consumption? Will we no longer be able to buy the world's goods for paper? If the world is full of exported dollars that are no longer happy to be exchanged for longer term debt, then what will become of them? Tangible assets, you say? Bigfloat also comes to mind.
To any foreign holders of large amounts of American currency, my house is for sale for enough of that depreciating paper !! Right now, one million will buy it! Don't delay, it may take two or more million soon!
Payment in gold and silver is also acceptable if that pile of paper FRNs is too much to transport. (:>

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 12:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109169)

WGC's London view of gold

http://www.gold.org/excerpts today:

Gold built up a head of steam on Friday in New York. The market had been quiet but solid in London in the morning, and New York opened on a positive note, with the market continuing to talk about the possibility of a weekend statement from the IMF meeting over the outlook for the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. Early in the session the price was subject to the vagaries of the currency markets which meant that there was a short-lived move downwards not long after the opening, but this was well met, with fund-led buying activity increasing over the course of the day and driving prices to a high of almost $384/ounce before some selling emerged to take the froth off the market.

Comments did come from the IMF meeting that confirmed that central banks will get together to discuss renewing the Central Bank Gold Agreement, but was not an actual renewal announcement. The governor of the Dutch central bank, Nout Wellink, said that "we had a brief discussion on gold� We will come back to this issue at the beginning of next year� Don't expect a fundamental change in the approach of the central banks� We will be transparent again, there will be no fundamental break in our approach".

Market opinion had been divided on the approach to the meeting about whether there would be a fully-fledged statement and a number of observers had suggested that this September was too soon for a firm deal to be reached, given that the current Agreement does not expire until next September. The comments that were made, therefore, were taken positively and were then compounded by a statement from the G-7 financial summit that made a strong call for more flexible exchange rates and this put pressure on the dollar. Gold ran up towards $388/ounce in Asian hours as the dollar slumped, before opening in London at just above $385/ounce.

...The G-7 communiqu� did not mention any specific currencies, but market observers are suggesting that the aim is to weaken the dollar...

...The equity markets have reacted badly to the week-end's developments, with the Nikkei shedding 4.2% ....... Gold remains well bid in London, fixing this morning at $386.20/ounce.

...The Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch launched its "World Gold Expertise Fund" on August 7th and has said that the fund has already attracted over US$150M. The fund invests in four different managers who all focus on gold equities. The bank also recommends that investors, who should be seeking diversification in their portfolios, should be putting at least 5% of their investment into gold as a long-term hedge against risk.

-----------

A repeat for emphasis:

"...investors, who SHOULD BE seeking diversification in their portfolios, should be putting AT LEAST 5% of their investment into gold as a long-term hedge against risk."

R.

Gandalf the White

(09/22/2003; 12:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109170)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

WOWSERS --- We have WINNERS !!! That was last minute VOLATILITY !!!

Lady Waverider wins the GOLD 1/2 ounce US Eagle
and
Sir's Runner and 401 each get a Gold British Sovereign !!!

==

$$$$ $388.5 $$$$ Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568

$$$$ $388.2 $$$$ Waverider (9/20/03; 17:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109062

$$$$ $388.1 $$$$ 401 (9/21/03; 11:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109115)-
====
Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) 9/22/03
Open $387.0 HIGH $389.1 low $384.0 Last $388.5
SETTLEMENT $388.3 Change +$5.4 Volume 49,167
Yesterday's Open Interest = 205,590
===
Will each of the three GOLDEN WINNERS provide Lady Marie (email at marie@usagold.com) their real NAMES and mailing address for shipment of the PRECIOUS !
<;-)

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 12:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109171)

Don't miss yesterday's Russian news on gold AND oil

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2120039/default.htmlclick url for yesterday's archive and scroll down to read this posted article:

TownCrier (9/21/03; 12:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 109120)
Russian CB speaks -- of gold AND oil

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 12:38:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109172)

Congratulations to the winners

Looks like "free gold" is finally making inroads...
;-)

What other company goes so far to treat you so well on good faith? Please show your support by choosing to do business with Centennial Precious Metals for all your metal investment needs. They are friendly and are here to help you!

toll free (800) 869-5115

Ananse

(09/22/2003; 12:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109173)

Ooops- Corrections

www.seedsavers.orgThanks, Grateful for Gold, for catching the typo. The correct link is reposted above. Also, "upon" should have been deleted from the body of the post.

Congratulations to Waverider! An exciting day.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/22/2003; 13:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109174)

Page Update!

Waverider

(09/22/2003; 13:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109175)

USAGOLD

Thank you All for the GREAT price guessing contest...what a ride on the WILD side today!! My, my Sir Gandalf...you REALLY know how to give a Goldbugette a heart attack!! I had to catch my breathe when you posted the winners! I'm not usually at a loss for words, but oh my....thank you Sir MK for the opportunity to join in the fun and thanks Sir Gandalf for making it so much fun!! I think that I shall have to refrain from these competitions for awhile and give my coronaries a rest! :))
Waverider

Boilermaker

(09/22/2003; 13:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109176)

Waverider Congrats

What a great gold day and there could not have been a more deserving winner. Congratulations!!!
Boilermaker

Federal_Reserves

(09/22/2003; 13:37:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109177)

The last bagholders

are the rich, holding overvalued debt backed US stocks, they piled in like greedy pigs at the trough after the tax, visions of tax free dividends and low capital gains taxes dancing in their heads; but the stocks are in the hands of less than 10% of the people, its highly margined (new record) and the mutual funds have less than 5% cash on hand to buy more, once they realize they have no sheeple left to unload upon, its gonna collapse in a international bonfire of vanity.

R Powell

(09/22/2003; 14:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109178)

Only 5% ?

Randy (post 109169), only 5%? Others may advise only 5% but that's not enough now, is it. All that hard to understand economic esoteric "stuff" (description of us from other forums) that has been hashed over these past years seems to be REALLY happening. Remember when $2 was a big day for POG and we wondered if we'd ever see POG struggle through the $300. level? Hells-bells man, how about 25% physical anyway and perhaps also some in some of those gold derivative paper assets just for the paper gains?

Paper, Rich!!!! Okay, didn't mean to upset you, make it 50% physical then, okay? This isn't your fathers gold market, it's not just wealth preservation anymore, it's an investment homerun.

To all Contest winners....CONGRATS !!!!

Paper Avalanche

(09/22/2003; 14:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109179)

A thought on this afternoon's gold market report....

The following was mentioned in the report with respect to the impending rally in gold:

"With the uptrend accelerating, the risk is the rally happens sooner rather than later, i.e. before the end of the year," he said. "The statistics are stunning," wrote Matt Schwab, Barclays' head of precious metal trading. "... However, the narrow base on which gold's strong recent price performance has been built suggest that the market will struggle to move much higher unless gold's appeal as an alternative investment can be BROADENED (my emphasis)."

In 30 days the ETF will be trading on the LSE and NYSE. This will "broaden" the appeal of gold by allowing the average stock market investor to get into the game.

Food for thought.

PA

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 14:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109180)

Two headlines and the losing of official credibility

HEADLINE - No change to U.S. strong-dollar policy, Snow says
12:58 pm - Reuters

HEADLINE - Strong dollar policy laid to rest by G7 language shift
2:05 pm - Reuters

From the first article:

DUBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Monday brushed off questions about sharp currency swings after a weekend Group of Seven meeting and insisted no change had been made in U.S. dollar policy.

The dollar weakened to near three-year lows against Japan's yen on Monday ... the U.S. currency also weakened against the euro, Swiss franc and pound sterling.

Some currency dealers interpreted Saturday's G7 statement as the final abandonment of a previous Washington position that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest.

Asked about that view, Snow replied: "There's no change in the strong-dollar policy."
---------

Randy's note: Now, in all fairness to the SecTreas on the mincing of words, he did elaborate as such:

------------------"What you want to be strong is (that) you want people to have confidence in your currency, you want them to see a currency as a good medium of exchange. You want the currency to be a good store of value. You want it to be something people are willing to hold. You want it to be hard to counterfeit....those are the qualities," Snow said then. The dollar's value, he said, "represents the fundamentals of the demand and supply for currencies".-----------------

However, on the face of it, the "strong dollar" soundbites undermine whatever credibility the office might have claim to.

The second article has this to say:

NEW YORK/CHICAGO, Sept 22 (Reuters) - If currency traders were in any doubt that the "strong dollar policy" might still be showing some signs of life, the Group of Seven's ground-breaking communique on currencies has finally laid it to rest, U.S.-based traders said on Monday.

"For a long time, the United States has been moving away from a strong dollar policy. This (the G7 statement) is definitely another nail in the coffin," said Lara Rhame, senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

...dealers are highly skeptical by this stage, especially in light of the extent of dollar weakness since the G7 statement over the weekend. On Monday, the dollar shed nearly 2 percent against the yen and 1 percent against the Swiss franc.

"Obviously most people are reading between the lines. That's something he has to say," said one New York-based currency trader. Snow is paying lip service to the dollar in defense of the U.S. bond market, which would suffer if Washington formally abandoned the strong dollar policy...

-----------

Call Centennial and discuss a gold diversification strategy that's right for your individual portfolio needs.

R.

misetich

(09/22/2003; 14:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109181)

Treasury Snow Auditioning for Dave Letteman

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1064251320000Snip:

"There is no change in the strong dollar policy," Snow told a small
group of reporters at the annual meetings of the International Monetary
Fund and World Bank
**************
Misetich

Couldn't resist it - (Snow's audience was indicated as being "small") His clown ratings are soon to skyrocket as the US $ continues its descend and loses 20-30% vs Euro, Yen, Gold

Is Snow impersonating Iraq's Information Minister "Mohammed Saeed Al-Sahaf"?

Snow's resume reads almost equal to Al-Sahaf

"Supply official information to newsmedia in a way that accentuates the positive. Demonstrate ability to completely ignore the facts while spewing inaccuracies in a way that particularly appeals to his country's citizens"

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Cytek

(09/22/2003; 14:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109182)

Time to pay up Commercials - Sinclair

I told you this morning that the longs had a gold trading strategy and you witnessed it unfold. The primary seller after some covering was Morgan which sold a considerable amount of gold into a bag held out by what was interpreted as non-US buying.

The shorts are trying to cover under the cover of a willingness to sell. Actually a neat strategy, if I say so myself, but totally transparent to a 44 year veteran trader like myself.

Nice try by the short of gold men/women who are attempting to make cover. I would say that $418 is closer than Barclay's thinks. I love the Reuters article regarding Barclay's research statement that pointed out the long COT but somehow forgot to mention the short COT of over 20,000,000 ounces of gold.

With gold up $5.50, now the bill to COT commercial gold traders at the close of the Comex was over $100,000,000.00 real green US dollars which must be paid before the opening of Comex tomorrow.

That $100,000,000.00 in real dollar bills will be credited to the accounts of the non-professional gold traders, the long position holders who are supposed to be stupid. Now who is stupid, the payer or the paid?

Gold is looking like it wants to vault to $400 this week at least. The shorts are covering so look for their activity in the Asian and European markets in the a.m. tomorrow I will not be sleeping tonight my dear short of gold men/women and will greet you on the font lines.

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 14:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109183)

Gold dutifully powering higher

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlsee url for latest year-long price graph

R.

Waverider

(09/22/2003; 15:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109184)

TownCrier

Randy - that graph is one BEAUTIFUL site to behold!! It is a near perfect symmetrical triangle - VERY BULLISH for Spot! If one takes the following points for the top line of the triangle - Jan -Feb $388.00, May-June $375.00 and July-August $368.00, and the following points for the lower line of the triangle - March-April $320.00 and July-August $340.00, the Breakout point for Spot occured around $365.00. The price target is determined by measuring the base of the triangle and adding it to the breakout point. I calculate the base to be around $80.00...add this to the breakout of $365.00 for a price target of $445.00. Whooeee....let's see if TA REALLY works! Cheers,
Waverider

glennh10

(09/22/2003; 16:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109185)

Coeur d'Alene sees silver at $5.75 per ounce this year

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3488606≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsAnd, according to the article, gold expected to reach $400 (by year's end). The article mentions silver's increased industrial uses as a factor, adding the world financial uncertainty as a factor for gold. They might also add the ridiculous short and leasing positions for both metals.

Paper Avalanche

(09/22/2003; 16:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109186)

@ glennh10

I beleive that you will begin to see more and more pro-gold / pro-silver articles in the MAINSTREAM media in the next few months.

What if someone threw an ETF party and nobody showed up?

PA

Great Albino Bat

(09/22/2003; 16:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109187)

Paper Avalanche: more PAPER GOLD IS ALL I SEE.....

in the new ETF to be launched under the auspices of World Gold Council, a "Council" which has never been part of the solution, and always part of the problem of gold's repression by TPTB.

You state: "In 30 days the ETF will be trading on the LSE and NYSE. This will "broaden" the appeal of gold by allowing the average stock market investor to get into the game."

Apparently you think the WGC has had a change of heart, has seen the light, and is now all-out pro-gold. I'll believe it when I see it.

For now, as far as I'm concerned all this "broadening of appeal" is not for GOLD, but for substitutes for gold. The same-old, same-old. The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper. Will we never learn? No, never.

Sceptical guano from the GAB.

Great Albino Bat

(09/22/2003; 16:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109188)

Allow me to repeat once again:

The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper.

GAB

Great Albino Bat

(09/22/2003; 16:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109189)

Allow me to repeat once again:

The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper.

GAB

Smeagol

(09/22/2003; 16:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109190)

Wishes USAGOLD a Happy Fifth

birthday, yess, we does, and from the looks of things it is a exciting one, eh? We wishes Congratulations to the Contesst winners! (clap clap clap).
...
Hmmm. Smeagol iss curious, always. Doess anyone know how much of It is above ground, the total amount of It accounted for? And pardon Smeagol, we doesn't mean to ssound sstupid, but how many Ounces of It are there in a 'Tonne'? There's different kinds of tons (not that we could affords that much, ha ha!)

S.

TownCrier

(09/22/2003; 17:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109191)

Gold specs for Smeagol

World above-ground gold is in the ballpark of 140,000 tonnes.

There are one million (1,000,000) grams in each of these tonnes.

There are 31.103 grams in each troy ounce.

From that you can arrive just about anywhere you need to go.

Hence, 32,151 troy ounces per tonnes.

Hence, theoretically, less than one ounce of gold could be gathered up for every living man, woman, and child on earth today.

It leads us to wonder how many people here have ensured themselves to be wealthier than the average in such a reckoning where wealth is measured in tangibles rather than paper? Some may be the next Warren Buffet and not even realize it yet.

R.

misetich

(09/22/2003; 17:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109192)

Global: Breakthrough - S. Roach

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030922-mon.html#anchor0Snip:

An unbalanced global economy has finally come to its senses. At the just-concluded G-7 meetings in Dubai, the world's major industrial economies have endorsed the basic premise of global rebalancing -- a long overdue adjustment in the dollar.
........................
History tells us that the US dollar has only just begun its downward descent. On a broad trade-weighted basis, the dollar (in real terms) has fallen about 8% from its early 2001 highs. In a full-blown current account adjustment, a drop of around three times that magnitude can be expected -- not all that different than the 30% real deprecation of the dollar that occurred in the late 1980s when the current-account disequilibrium was far less acute. In the end, a lopsided world has no choice other than to accede to a weaker dollar.
*********************
Misetich

Central Bankers have been meddling (sp. Japan)and not allowing the US $ to find its resting place.
At last the noose has been tightened a little more ...

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Smeagol

(09/22/2003; 17:27:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109193)

If It wass divided up...

Thanks, O graciouss Crier (bow), for your swift answer and many facts. The reason Smeagol asks, he wonders if all of It (about 4,500,000,000 Ounces) wass divided up among the (about 6,300,000,000) peoples of the Earth, jusst how much each would have. It comess to 0.715 Ounces per persson. This issn't very much!!! If anyone reading this has jusst ONE ounce of It, then we thinks even 'they of ssmall worth' are ahead of the game, yes.

Smeagol

(09/22/2003; 18:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109194)

...and one 'Tonne' of It

iss 37.267 centi-meters on a sside, or 14.67 inches, and at 400 dollars/Ounce iss worth 12,860,400 dollars. A concentrated wealth, indeed, worthy of Dragons. Let uss see tricksy Baggins put THAT in its pocketses!!

S.

Druid

(09/22/2003; 18:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109195)

Great Albino Bat (09/22/03; 16:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109187)

Druid: Bat, pardon me for interjecting, I agree with your assessment regarding the paper play, however, here is where things could get very interesting if we are to follow in the footsteps of giants. The initial play will be for paper then, the "lions" will start bidding for bullion thereby separating the price for both items like a space shuttle aircraft leaving its boosters. If in fact the BIS and various other "giants" have been directing bullion where needed, then the infrastructure for the next paradigm shift is pretty much in place and all that one would seem to need to get the party started is, proper justification.

glennh10

(09/22/2003; 18:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109196)

The Royal Canadian Mint no longer lists prices in U.S. dollars

This is from Coin World magazine, 9/29/03. It looks like Treasury Sec'y Snow's "strong dollar" is no longer so reliable.
Interestingly, the RCM made this pricing change before the latest bombshell from the recent G7 meeting about floating the "currencies", and discouraging artificial propping up of the dollar. That's the way news items relating to the money come about: after the fact. By the time it's in the mainstream press, it already happened. The "almighty" dollar's looking for another resting place, one that's a bit less "almighty". The times they are a'changin.

Druid

(09/22/2003; 18:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109197)

Gold is the Cure for the Job-Drain

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2003/0922.htmlDe-Industrialization of America

The true story of the de-industrialization of America has never been told. It started with the U.S. Treasury defaulting on its gold obligation to foreigners in 1971, thereby foisting a regime of irredeemable currency upon the world. An unanticipated side-effect was the setting of the rate of interest adrift. It then started its wild roller-coaster ride, first up well into double digits by 1981, then down to zero, a move that twenty years later is still in progress. Greenspan takes credit for the low rates as a measure of his success in "licking inflation". The claim is an empty one. The credit belongs to bond speculators, the big money-center banks among them, that have got away with obscene profits on their bond holdings and long positions in the derivatives markets. It is too early to say that the plunge of interest rates is over. There is more dough still where these profits have come from.

At whose expense are those obscene profits made? Why, at the expense of the producers and laborers, naturally. Economists have missed the curious coincidence that pari passu with the unprecedented swings in interest rates America is being de-industrialized. Of course, they noticed the migration of industrial jobs from America to Asia. But they blamed it on the sweatshops in China and India. However, Asian wage rates had been lower for the entire period of modern age, causing no migration of jobs as long as industrialized countries adhered to the gold standard. The difference in wage rates in itself does not establish a cause for the job-drain.

Druid: Hard hitting analysis and commentary.

Carl H

(09/22/2003; 18:51:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109198)

SEC Quizzing NYSE Specialists

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=5&u=/nm/20030922/bs_nm/financial_nyse_sec_dc--- Begin Snip ---

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal regulators have begun interviewing individual specialists on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites) about an investigation of possible illegal trading, amid a leadership vacuum at the Big Board.

--- End Snip ---

And this is supposed to surprise me? It is beyond me why the NYSE specialized even exist.

Got physical gold?

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 18:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109199)

GAB @ msg. #109187 -- World Gold Council

Amen, soul-bro!

The WGC has bothered me ever since I began my relatively short (compared to most of you here) "career" in studying the Precious Metals! I think I "ranted" about the WGC here a couple of days ago....

A big red flag went up when they chose the former CALPERS guy to be their new honcho. Yes, I can see a pension fund paper pusher being a true gold advocate, yes sir!

What I don't understand is WHY the gold mining companies give ANY support to this cabal-infested organization! Are they (the mining companies) truly so beaten down that they are grateful for any bones thrown their way -- even toxic ones? Or are they so shortsighted that they will just go along with the US-induced view of quick money?

I just don't get it. (Well, I do...but I just DON'T LIKE IT!!).

Lady GFG

Dollar Bill

(09/22/2003; 19:06:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109200)

">"

The tippity top?
"..The Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase application index jumped to the sixth highest level on record. The Purchase index has now increased 15% in the past three weeks to 21% above the year ago level. By dollar volume, Purchase applications were up 32.6% from a year earlier. The average Purchase loan amount was $199,800. On the other hand, Refi applications were down 60% from the elevated level of one year ago.
September 19 � Los Angeles Times: "A slew of fence sitters jumped into Southern California's housing market last month, boosting home sales and price increases to their highest levels in more than 14 years. The August median price for homes sold in the six-county region, from Ventura to San Diego, rose 22% from a year earlier to $338,000, according to DataQuick� The year-over-year gain was the strongest since May 1989, when the median price of new and existing houses and condominiums was $176,000. San Bernardino County, the Southland's most affordable area, saw the largest price increase last month, jumping 29% to $207,000. The median price of all homes sold in Los Angeles County in August was $338,000 � up 27% from a year earlier. Sales overall for the Southland also hit their highest monthly count since the late 1980s, with 34,437 properties changing hands in August, 12% more than a year earlier... the number of homes sold in Orange County last month � 5,511 � was the highest of any month since July 1988� The effect of higher interest rates was apparent last month in expensive Orange County, where nearly half of all buyers used ARMs to purchase their homes. That compares with 38% in July and 29% a year ago."

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 19:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109201)

Druid @ msg. #109195 -- Again, World Gold Council

I just saw your post and I am not sure I comprehended your point. So, the WGC is aligned with the big, global players? Surprise, surprise. What did I miss? I guess I need more specific infrastructure alignment.

Going back to my rant of a couple of days ago...maybe I have totally misunderstood the WGC's "purpose." If their "purpose" is to promote gold, then they've sorrily (is that a word? I love to coin new words) missed the boat! That, amongst other things, was a pretty big clue to me about who is buttering their bread. The saavy WGC jumps from its old marketing ploy of "gold as jewelry" to the new, improved (but...wait... there's more!!) ploy of the ETF. Huh?

Seems that somewhere along the line, some marketing whiz kid at the WGC could have come up with something like, "Hey, guys...why don't we tell them that GOLD IS AN INVESTMENT? Like, you know, they could buy GOLD COINS and BULLION to protect their wealth!" But, if he/she did, it probably deteriorated to "I dunno, guys...wha'daya think? No? Jeez, this gold stuff is crap...we'd better get it linked to some paper trades if we're ever gonna make it work!"

Ah, Mr. CALPERS arrived in the nick of time....

JMJO (just my jaded opinion)

Lady GFG

R Powell

(09/22/2003; 19:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109202)

ETFs for gold

Great Albino Bat, in the interest of balance I'll respectfully disagree with your assessment of ETFs for precious metals. Any window of opportunity for gold investment is better than none whatsoever for those who are locked into stocks only retirement funds.

The majority of those invested in stocks, bonds or other vehicles - indeed the huge, vast majority- do not manage their own investments and have no say in where those monies are invested. Most have no more choice other than to check high risk, medium risk or low risk which merely places them in growth funds, blue chips or bonds.

I will agree that most are not knowledgeable, interested or willing to do the work necessary to manage their own retirement funds. Most are blissfully ignorant. If they lose, it may be their own fault? Maybe, but that's not the issue. The issue is gold related funds that trade like stocks and ARE therefore an available vehicle for fund managers who, because they limited to stocks (most further limited to the long side of stocks, which to me, seems like playing basketball with one arm against guys with two) have had, until now, NO means of gold investment!

Yes, yes, yes, yes...I know all about the benefits of physical ownership. I have no quarrel here, I agree entirely, BUT, how many people and how much retirement money CAN NOT invest in physical and can only NOW through ETFs invest in precious metals at all???

Is/will this be a good development for gold. Imho, it will be excellent. It will provide exposure to a vast number who otherwise have had absolutely no interest whatsoever before. Is it a paper investment? What organizational retirement fund isn't? Would this investment money be better in land, tangibles, physical gold, and controled directly by each investor? Again, the reality of the situation prohibits this for many. Most of these many do not want to be bothered (and could not) manage it even if they were given the opportunity. ETFs are not perfect but better than the absolute nothing that existed before.

Actually, my own position is physical and highly leveraged derivatives but I do not recommend these as most investors in this market go broke real fast, even faster than the government can devalue your retirement funds!
Thoughts?

R Powell

(09/22/2003; 19:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109203)

Gold indicators // Gandalf

If I counted correctly, Gandalf, there were 23 price guesses higher than the winner and 51 lower than the Lady's correct guess.
This is unusual isn't it? Aren't we usually overly optimistic? What, O great sage, does this mean? Is this an omen?

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 19:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109204)

MK, Towncrier et al.

I am grateful for your providing this site!

I just went to your home page to see if you provided charts (sorry to say, I come directly to this Forum and don't usually go to your home page). But, I just went there to see if you provided gold and silver charts (because I was fascinated in the "war" over silver that went on before the NY markets opened today). It's been a long time since I've seen silver be so volatile! Usually, it's flatlined.

Anyway, to the point -- After my ragging the WGC so much, I noticed that on your home page "The Week in Gold" from, ahem, the World Gold Council is the FIRST of your listed "Team USAGOLD" Regular Contributors!

Is this a contractual obligation? If not, may I respectfully request that their "contributions" be moved lower (off the page works for me....). Well, at least AFTER The Gold Trail?

If this request is ridiculous or impossible, I understand.

TIA!

Lady GFG

Paper Avalanche

(09/22/2003; 19:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109205)

@ GAB

Greetings! I enjoy our continual debate over this issue. You mentioned the following...

"The ETF is not pro-gold, it intends to derail or sidetrack interest in gold, now dangerously building, into a controlled environment of paper, paper and more paper."

I do agree entirely that the ETF is a means by which to divert paper dollars from ever truly being converted into physical gold. On that issue I believe we both agree (please correct me if I am mistaken).

Where I believe differently from you is with respect to the ability of the ETF to effectively control the "price" of gold given the new monetary paradigm of gold assuming the roll of ultimate international currency after the dollar had its five decades in the sun. To that end, I would respectfully submit that your assumption of a continuation of the paper suppression mechanism that we all grew up with over the last few decades will be perpetuated by the ETF. Here is where I break from your argument. I believe that in order for paper to effectively manage the price of gold, the the world reserve currency must obviously be pure fiat. In order for there to be a true fiat reserve currency within the international banking system the majority of the world governments must agree to allow a single country the privilege of producing said reserve currency. When the political will is gone (as predicted by those on the trail) to tolerate the inevitable abuses that the populus of the reserve currency country will bring upon themslves (i.e. spending themselves into perpetual debt since the rest of the world accepts that which they are able to create out of thin air in exchnage for goods and services) those various countries who should oppose such a concentration of power to continue will intentionally create other price discovery mechanisms (i.e. Dubai and Shanghai exchanges) so as to reveal the true value of the currency being issued by said reserve currency country. Given that said reserve currency country has, heretofore, also controlled the price discovery mechanisms to date (i.e. Comex) there was never any fear of allowing the true ratio of specie to paper promises to be compared. Once said reserve currency country realized that it's paper money would be revalued within world markets without the prior controls that it had at its disposal to suppress to monetary realignments, it became apparent to the politicos running the country that a vehicle would need to be provided to allow their constituents to particpate in the impending devaluation of the previous reserve currency.

The ETF, in my opinion, is an impossible instrument to control the dethroning of the dollar as the reserve curency in international banking. It is my opinion that the ETF will not be able to offset the physical demand that China, among other significant physical markets, will create by having liberalized its physical gold markets. While I certainly agree that paper has and continues suppress the true value of gold, I further believe that in order for paper to do so going forward that there has to be both the political will and and the continued hegemony for the reserve currency within international banking. Both, IMO, have evaporated in the last 24 months.

I may be wrong.

PA

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 20:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109206)

R Powell @ msg. #109202

I hope you don't mind my intruding in your conversations with GAB regarding ETFs.

You said "The majority of those invested in stocks, bonds or other vehicles - indeed the huge, vast majority- do not manage their own investments and have no say in where those monies are invested. Most have no more choice other than to check high risk, medium risk or low risk which merely places them in growth funds, blue chips or bonds."

Good point. My question is:

Do we know what Funds will buy these "gold" ETFs? Since MOST Funds (401(k)) don't offer the opportunity to buy ANY PM stocks, is there some change that has happened that they are going to jump on the "gold" ETF bandwagon and be able to buy? If so, then I guess I agree that it's better than nothing!

You said "I will agree that most are not knowledgeable, interested or willing to do the work necessary to manage their own retirement funds. Most are blissfully ignorant. If they lose, it may be their own fault? Maybe, but that's not the issue."

My second question is more a comment.

WHEN will PERSONAL responsibility ever become "an issue??" The longer the American public is allowed to remain in this impersonal bliss of government (or 401(k)s in this instance) being the great benefactor and the investor/dumbo worker only being responsible for automatically putting his percentage in every week with absolutely NO understanding of what he is doing -- the longer this continues the greater the peril! So, since I consider PHYSICAL gold ownership to be one of the ultimate expressions of personal responsibility and salute every step individuals take in this direction...I cannot help but see ETFs as a derailment of that goal. Yes, it will garner some of the stock market action...but it will not lead citizens to responsibility, awareness or protection, IMO!

My advice to the 401(k)ers who are stuck with that investment vehicle...STOP contributing to your 401(k) and use that money to buy PHYSICAL gold and silver! (OK, not investment advice, just my opinion....).

Lady GFG

Dollar Bill

(09/22/2003; 20:09:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109207)

*>*............+

I must admit to drumming my fingers waiting for
the Duke, M.Kosares, Gold commentary after the Dubai event.
I have a guess what he might say....not trying to pressure you !

Yukon

(09/22/2003; 20:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109208)

Gold on CNBC

Thanks for the great posts on the gold ETF to lady GFG, PA and GAB. Lady GFG, I could not help but agree with all your points except one (which I am currently seriously thinking about changing). That is, stop participating in the retirement plan of the company you work for and invest that money in physical PM's. At present I like the idea of that money growing tax free until retirement (so off the bat you you are making a nice return on the money), coupled with the fact that my company provides MATCHING CONTRIBUTIONS up to a certain percentage of dollars contributed. This is FREE MONEY and is unavailable to those who do not participate and contribute a minimum (2% at my company) into the retirement program! So, what I do to gain the best of both worlds is to contribute the minimum and then make purchases with extra take home pay monthly.

It will be interesting to see how this gold ETF unfolds and how it performs relative to the world market prices of bullion. Keep up the great ideas and thoughts!

For anyone interested, tomorrow at 5pm EST, CNBC's Business Center programe will be featuring a segment on gold (happen to catch it while watching commodity prices ticker). Should be interesting to see if the gold ETF is mentioned, plus what forms of gold they recommend for exposure to this market. (My guess is mining shares with comex futures and options second and ? ETF. No mention of physical guaranteed! So buyers of paper, BEWARE!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

Yukon

(09/22/2003; 20:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109209)

WGC postings on USAGold

Sir MK;
I respectfully 2nd Lady GFG's request to move the WGC posting below the Gold Trail. (Unless of course they help "nourish these pages" in one form or another). For the "average" investor (and I know that would be virtually impossible to quantify), the Gold Trail, IMO, would be much more applicable and proper toward gaining understanding of the world and markets by providing reason and logic for the lessons contained therein. Thanks for your consideration.

Yukon

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 21:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109210)

Paper Avalanche @ msg. #109205

Here I am, an uninvited intruder again :>)

Phew! My brain is tired and I struggled to understand what you were saying. You were clear, I think. My brain fuzzed.

So, a global shifting of the world reserve currency is underway. But, rest assured that in several decades, the world will deal with the next reserve currency manufacturer who abuses that privilege by introducing "new" gold markets to re-price the value of gold when that world reserve currency gets waaaaay too out of line? Sorry, think I'll be dead by then. Or is it that the ETFs will help "soften" the landing of the plunging US$ for certain participants...yet, all the while, China is smart and will be accumulating all the PHYSICAL gold it can manage? I guess I didn't comprehend, after all.

Maybe I'm selfish. I care about my life and my loved ones. I care about sounding the alarm to any American or world citizen who has ears to hear that our world governments are in a huge struggle of currency manipulation/devaluation/ debasement and GOLD (and silver) is probably the only viable option. To me, it's that damn simple.

Is it merely a matter of paper dictating/not dictating the PRICE of physical gold...or maybe more a matter of the prudence of holding physical rather than paper? Yes, maybe if I were absolutely trapped in paper (currency/stock market 401(k)s/bonds, etc.) I would have an interest in ETFs. Maybe if I were a banker/broker I would have an enormous interest in ETFs. But, thankfully, I am just a simple person who has chosen to take a stance. I no longer trust our world leaders. I no longer trust my resources locked away in some banker or broker's computer. I trust myself. For better or worse, I put my meager resources on the line in line with my beliefs. No debt, no margins.

Am I saying that everyone should do the same? Well, that's a nice fantasy for me. But I would be content to think that every thinking person has garnered some personal safety and security for themselves and their loved ones by quietly accumulating some PHYSICAL protection!

Thank you for letting me barge in on your conversation. I'll head to bed now.

Lady GFG

steady

(09/22/2003; 21:24:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109211)

my math and how i got oh so close on my guess!

387.9 first nuber is 3, the second two numbers 87 or 8+7=15 which is the 3rd multiple of 5 so now we have two threes. the last number 9 is the 3rd multiple of 3 so 3 3s (3 is good luck in asia) add them together and u get 9 pure> thats how i came to my guess of the pog price!

cyberbat

(09/22/2003; 21:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109212)

all gold mined

All of the gold that has ever been mined in the whole world will only stand 3 feet high on a football field. Ever wonder why everyone wants a little? Because there is very little.

Great Albino Bat

(09/22/2003; 22:17:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109213)

Lady Grateful for Gold is very perceptive

Gentlemen and Lady GratefulforGold, thanks for your opinions on the ETF. It is encouraging to see that no one of us is claiming that he and only he, is absolutely right in his predictions. We are all only making what seem to us, the most logical deductions from our experience.

My experience is to doubt that good things can ever begin to come from persons or institutions that have manifested destructive behavior. People and the institutions they run, do not change, as a rule. Therefore, as Lady GratefulforGold has said, let us seriously doubt that a pusher of paper for a state employees' retirement fund, the famous CALPERS, is going to have the tiniest conception of the importance of gold.

Such a person, now heads the WGC, right?

Paper Avalanche: you may be saying something important, but I'd like to figure out what it is you are saying. Basically,it appears you feel that the dollar is going down and out pretty soon, and that the paper manipulation of the price of gold cannot be continued. But what you say, just does not convince me entirely. I wish it did!

This fund, with proper pushing from all the media, all of a sudden, is going to get millions upon millions of individuals to send money to the ETF, for "investment in gold". But is that investment really going to take place? With all that money, the ETF managers, those nice people from the WGC who have done such magnificent work for gold as an investment by promoting jewelry trinkets, are going to have a lot of ammunition to use AGAINST GOLD.

But they would not do that, now would they? No-o-o-o-o! Of course NOT! That would be such a nasty, illegal thing to do, they could not possibly do such a thing, ever, ever, ever!

This ETF is a "judo move": use the momentum of your oponent to overthrow him, not your own strength.

Gold is becoming dangerously attractive. Time to launch a vehicle which will pick up large, very large amounts of cash, and use the same cash to FRUSTRATE the expectations of the public that sent in the money.

The ETF will have as its primary objective, that gold will not perform. Then, the cry will go up again, "Gold is dead! Gold does nothing! The ETF shares are stagnant! Dump gold!"

Allright, everyone here knows what I think. I MAY BE WRONG.

There is nothing to do but observe carefully.

And let all of us gather in more solid gold while it can be obtained for paper.

Good to hear from you, GratefulforGold, you are one smart lady!

Guano from the GAB

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 22:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109214)

Yukon @ msgs. #109208 and 109209

Hey, Yukon, I couldn't go to bed without acknowleding your posts. I enjoyed them. Thanks for the 2nd on the WGC vote! (I suspect it's futile, but I was taught "It never hurts to ask.")

You surely don't need any input from me about your 401(k). But, true to form, I will speak my mind whether wanted or not!

I did the same as you (contributing up to the employer's match) back when I still worked in that environ. If I were still there today...hmmm.

First, I don't believe I'll ever collect any of the Social Security that I've been forcibly contributing to. That will probably go poof! whenever the government has to actually live up to it (or we'll be so hyper-inflated that all those years of "contributing" will buy me a Big Mac or a can of cat food (for human consumption). So, do I trust 401(k)/pension plans any more than Social Security? Probably not. Sadly, I have become SO mistrustful of anyone but me managing my economic affairs! They just don't think like I do, you know?

It's all a gamble. I just happen to trust the reliability of gold (now that it's in a bull market). I would not have been a good gold bug through all those bear years -- but I got in during the early bull months and am enormously grateful! So, you do your own calculations and decide whether all that 401(k) has the ability to be there for you when you retire. Do a cross-check with what your estimate would be if you had invested those funds in physical Precious Metals (taxes be damned!).

Obviously, if your 401(k) offers you the ability to invest in any PM stocks, funds like Tocqueville or Gabelli, or (ech) the ETF, then I would probably invest in them with the same mentality I use with the few gold/silver stocks I own. But, I would really have to think hard if my 401(k) gave me none of these options. Energy stocks? I know nothing about them. Other commodities? There probably are options, but I just don't know them!

Whatever you do, I suspect you're "hedging" your 401(k) with physical gold and silver! That's very wise, IMO.

Good luck (and goodnight) to you, Yukon.

Lady GFG

Black Blade

(09/22/2003; 22:45:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109215)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:

The Real Bull Market

Coffee prices are up this year and so is the price of wheat, sugar, lead, copper, oil, natural gas, platinum, gold and silver. Since hitting a bottom in the summer of 2001, commodity prices in general have done nothing but head north.

If the public is hungry for stocks again, what is the smart money buying? Judging from the movement in commodity prices over the last few years, they are moving into hard assets in a big way. Gold and silver top the list, but their buying does not stop there. Commodity prices in general are on the move from metals to soft goods, grains and energy. Just about everything is up this year, but very few investors have noticed. That is how bull markets begin. They begin quietly when nobody is paying attention. The smart money moves in first and accumulates its position. Eventually the trend catches on at the institutional level. Once institutions catch on, the next leg of the bull market is set to begin. It is when the public catches on that a bull market enters into its final stages. The cable channels are telling John Q. to buy stocks, especially technology shares where there is record insider selling, so he is buying with billions going into mutual funds each week. As far as investing in commodities, it isn't even on John Q.'s radar screen. The cable channels very seldom talk about investing in commodities and only then to disparage them. It hasn't even dawned on them that a new bull market has begun. It is amusing to hear chatter coming from the financial press that gold and silver equity shares are in a bubble; while they ignore the real bubble in paper assets.

It is one of the driving factors behind the migration out of paper assets. The smart money is bailing out of paper because it knows that the value of paper is eroding with every new dollar that the Fed creates. Right now the Fed is big on printing money and expanding credit. When the Fed does this, it creates inflation. Inflation has and will always be a monetary phenomenon and its source will always be governments or their central banks.

Today the markets got a reality check regarding the strong dollar policy of the U.S. It is becoming more apparent with the U.S. trade deficit expanding that a strong dollar policy, given America's debt position, is no longer a reality. America's trade deficits and budget deficits resemble and look more like a third world nation than it does a superpower. We are only a superpower when it comes to our military. Economically we have gone into decline. One of the foremost trademarks of an empire in decline is a debasement of its currency. That is what has been happening to the dollar since 2001. The next round of dollar depreciation has just begun as a result of this last weekend. This weekend's agreement between the G7 countries to let the dollar fall is one more quiver in the argument for a new bull market in commodities.

What is important to understand is that the investment game is about to change. The G7 who have been unable to reach an accord or broad consensus on anything recently are finally in agreement. The agreement is to let the dollar fall. Traders believe that this latest agreement means that the Japanese (who have been big buyers of U.S. Treasury debt) will be scaling back their Treasury bond purchases. That will mean a lower dollar and higher interest rates. Without Asian central bank support, interest rates will be heading up unless the Fed starts monetizing the government's deficits. Now currency debasement will be attempted in the hopes that a cheaper dollar will make imports more expensive and American goods more competitive.

The next leg of the dollar's decline could send gold and silver prices to levels that have not been seen in over a decade. As the dollar falls and as other central banks weaken their currencies, we could find ourselves repeating the 1930s "beggar thy neighbor" policies as each country tries to outdo its neighbors in depreciating its currency. The debasement of currencies and especially the dollar is one of the main crosscurrents behind transition from paper to hard assets.

Precious metals: silver first gold second

Energy: natural gas first oil second

Water

Food

Today's Market

Black Blade: An interesting article tonight from Puplava. The largest US export is the US dollar. Jobs are also high on the list. US companies are cutting costs faster and deeper than ever before. We are exporting over 4,000 jobs a week and rising. There are many careers that are going the way of the dinosaur in the US. One would have to be rather foolish to seek a career in technology now. An Indian with an upper level degree in technology (you name the position) can do the same job as an American for one tenth of the cost. If you are seeking a career in technology then learn Cantonese as well. Engineering is another career path on the way out for Americans. Again, foreign nationals are cheaper for most engineering jobs as manufacturers and researcher and development departments move offshore. Banker, brokers, Wall Street professionals are dinosaurs on the path to extinction as well. Who needs the NYSE trading floor? It will be largely computerized by the end of the decade like the NASDAQ making these jobs obsolete. Blue collar labor is a toss up depending of the type of job involved. Assembly line works is likely to be phased out in favor of cheaper non-union work offshore. If you can get into a real career that is dependent on domestic production and services. Of course, prepare by getting "portfolio insurance" into your investment portfolios. Domestic miners and petroleum workers (those who were derided by the techies as "earth rapers") will have among the best viable jobs before long as they will be producing actual assets from the earth. Of course medical professionals will be in demand as the Baby Boomers age but will be buying their cheaper prescription drugs from offshore pharmaceutical companies and served by cheap doctors imported by cost conscious HMOs. Kind of interesting how things have turned around so quickly as the "New Economy" industries and "Old Economies" industry have suddenly become unviable in the US.

GratefulForGold

(09/22/2003; 22:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109216)

Oops! DryWasher @ msg. #109166 and Gondolin @ msg. #109159

I was at work when you posted your messages and I almost forgot to thank you!

Your words were very encouraging in giving me the willingness to put forth the effort to post here. Thank you for making me feel welcome!

I just hope some don't rue the day they were supportive! I may be off-the-wall sometimes, but my heart is in the right place (so says I).

Thanks again!

Lady GFG

Druid

(09/22/2003; 23:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109217)

GratefulForGold (09/22/03; 19:15:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109201)

http://www.bis.org/index.htm"I just saw your post and I am not sure I comprehended your point. So, the WGC is aligned with the big, global players? Surprise, surprise. What did I miss? I guess I need more specific infrastructure alignment."

Druid: GFG, I'm not so sure I understand myself sometimes, but hey, that is what makes life oh so very interesting. I'm not so sure I fully understand who the players are, how they align and what their "real" agendas are but it appears that the world Central Bankers as represented by the IMF and BIS are in a heated competition for the services, and financial instruments they have to offer. My guess is that the WGC is aligned with the dollar faction which is represented by the IMF so I don't believe anything the WGC has to offer is in our(PGA's) best interest. There is a huge disproportionate amount of dollars circulating the globe(hot money)that is referred to as "speculative capital." This is outright inflation looking for a place to delude. The same insanity that happened in the tech sector that destroyed any and all metrics of rational valuations would do double the delusion in the gold and silver sectors because of how small these sectors are. I'm sorry, basic logic says you can't have it both ways. I can already see the P/E ratios. Thus, introducing more paper instruments to sop this inflation up isn't the answer, but, wall street is about marketing and myth making. Correct me if I'm wrong but was it you the other night that stated something about "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink?" If so, you brought back some wonderful memories for me that are more prevalent today then when I took the coursework some 12 years ago. I had a crazy economics professor(man was this guy a mess, he's the reason I majored in it) who used to literally yell out these euphemisms when trying to make a point. This one concerning a horse and another concerning a string were always his favorites he used when discussing banking and monetary policy. He would always say that if you wanted to predict a certain outcome within a short time frame so as to provide linkage between cause and effect, feed the horse salt tablets all day and/or starch the string enough and you could direct a behavior. While back then, I didn't quite understand what he was getting at, today it is crystal clear. This is why I've pretty much thrown away all the textbook garbage I've learned along the way in lieu of a more conservative approach to "investing." GFG, it is wonderful to have you here at MK's House of learning.

Black Blade

(09/22/2003; 23:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109218)

U.S. Natural Gas May Reach Record High This Winter

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=aFfNQ96mS8m8
Snippit:

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- North American natural-gas may climb to a record for a second straight winter as cold weather stokes demand and production declines, say buyers such as David Hawk, who purchases fuel for french-fry maker J.R. Simplot Co. in Boise, Idaho. Competition for shrinking supplies may push prices past the all-time high of $11.899 per million British thermal units set on Feb. 25. Gas for October delivery was little changed today at $4.475 per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ``The gas market will go crazy as soon as it gets cold,'' said Hawk, who buys gas for 17 french-fry and fertilizer factories in North America. ``Storage is getting filled but not everyone will have enough to fill out their winter requirements.'' Hawk and other gas buyers expect prices to rise because there is too little gas stored in underground caverns to provide a cushion during cold snaps. Simplot has been buying gas all summer and paying to have it stored, Hawk said.

The Energy Department predicts gas inventories will reach about 3 trillion cubic feet by November, typical for the start of the November-to-March heating season. Gas prices have fallen 22 percent the past three months as gas in storage has climbed nearer that level. Still, a near-record 3.127 trillion cubic feet in storage last year didn't prevent a run-up. ``We are in the same configuration as we were going into last winter,'' said Jim Duncan, head of research at ConocoPhillips in Houston, the fifth-largest U.S. gas producer. ``I am extremely concerned about short-term supply in the natural- gas market.'' Duncan said ``short term'' refers to the next three to four years.

Natural gas futures already suggest that the fuel will be expensive all winter. The average for the heating season is $5.067 per million Btu, based on futures prices for November through March. That's 19 percent higher than a year ago, and 148 percent above the average price of $2.04 through the 1990s.

The analysts and gas buyers who do expect higher prices point to rising U.S. demand and declining production. Demand for natural gas from U.S. factories, power plants, homeowners and commercial establishments last winter rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier, to 10.6 trillion cubic feet, according to the Energy Department. Increasing consumption in winter means that stored gas, stowed into underground caverns, covers a smaller portion of total needs. Last winter, 30 percent of U.S. demand was met with stored gas, down from 33 percent two years ago. If reserves start the season at 3 trillion cubic feet and demand is unchanged, coverage will decline to 29 percent this winter.

U.S. production dropped 3.2 percent in 2002 from a 27-year high. In Canada, source of a fifth of U.S. gas, production stagnated and exports to the U.S. dropped 0.9 percent to 10.5 billion cubic feet a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Canadian exports have continued to decline this year, Canada's National Energy Board said. Domestic gas output is forecast to drop another 1.9 percent by the end of this year, because new wells aren't producing enough gas to offset lost production from older, exhausted sites, according to JP Morgan Chase & Co. analysts.

U.S. gas producers need to replace 14 billion cubic feet of daily output as old wells dry up, said Steve Becker, vice president of gas development at TransCanada Corp., Canada's biggest pipeline company by revenue. ``That's a tremendous amount of new supply to find,'' Becker said at Interchange Energy's LDC Forum in Oakbrook, Illinois, two weeks ago. Even with futures prices up 19 percent in the past year, the volatility of those prices is discouraging exploration and drilling for new deposits, he said. ``Regardless of what the drilling rate is, there's no new gas,'' Duncan said. ``There's no new finds. We're sticking new holes into the same bag of gas.''

The higher prices have already forced some chemical, plastics and fertilizer makers that use gas as a feedstock or fuel to switch to cheaper oil-based alternative fuels or curtail production. Utilities that provide gas to homeowners for heat will pay any price to secure supplies, said Fred Hunzeker, president of Tenaska Marketing Ventures.

Black Blade: With 300 million mcf additional demand per year demand over the last three years suggests that even with 3 tcf in storage it may still be a tight supply situation again. Especially so if NOAA and NWS projections of a colder winter play out (even the Farmers Almanac says a colder winter but I don't put any stock in that myself). Some regions will be tighter than others thanks to bottlenecks and lack of sufficient pipeline capacity to deliver NatGas supply to markets where demand is higher and supply is short. I look for more price spikes just like last year when we had record storage levels. Canada and Mexico will be of no help this year either. Canada has it's own shortage with declining production and Mexico is now a net importer of US NatGas. I was at a conference this last Saturday and was able to pin down a couple of old corporate exec friends as well as talked to another today by phone. The same old story is that production is falling and injection into storage is coming from high cost production pre-sold to marketers. Another point to a man is the lack of permitting for public land access and siting of new pipelines and wires. Next year it is said to get very ugly without any increasing domestic production regardless of holw many drill rigs are turning. This should definitely get interesting.

Socrates964

(09/23/2003; 06:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109219)

GAB/PA - ETF

If, gentlemen, you will allow me to add my 2 cents - my thoughts are as follows:

Think of an analogy with Russia:

Were Russian securities rammed down the throat of US/European investors in the mid-90s? -Yes (most notably Soviet-era debt - I remember a senior banker friend telling me that Yeltsin just had to service the previous regime's debt and that he had put a large proportion of his net worth into this one-way bet - the rest is history).

Was Russia systematically asset stripped by the same banks? - Yes.

Don't we have a contradiction here? - surely the Wall Street crowd can't pump up an investment bubble based on the huge untapped potential of Russia and at the same time pillage exactly the asset base that will make this new dawn possible?

Evidently not! When you are going to do a very big trade, you can't just go to the market and place your order - you have to build a new market place that seduces investors like a Disneyland that seduces 5-year old kids. You have to promote your message, and then you need a stock of assets to sell them at an inflated price (which you evidently bought for a song). Rather like selling bowler hats to the Bolivian Indians - first you persuade them that they need a bowler hat even though they managed to live through the previous 15,000 years without them> You then have your supply of bowler hats which you bought wholesale and sell retail, and that's the game - selling bowler hats. There may well be a 5-year plan with bowler hat density targets. There may even be some kind of spiritual message that gets pushed with the bowler hats, but the real game is very simple - shift those hats.

We can thus get bogged down in discussions about the overall direction of monetary policy, where the IMF stands, what the hidden agenda of the BIS is, etc., etc., but this is to introduce an element into our conceptual model that confuses the issue - the confusion being that somehow there is a 'national interest or grand design' that the financial �lite has to balance with its desire to make money.

All that is really happening is that the �lite is setting up its stalls and preparing the next scam - i.e. business as usual. It doesn't have to be a scam that leaves them as masters of the universe (in this case, the gold market). The aim is merely to make lots of money by selling dear what they bought cheap and doing it again and again and again.

Now, what is the time horizon for a boom in a single asset class. Having lived through the booms in Japanese warrants, Southern European infrastructure, cold fusion stocks, Korean convertible bonds, luxury franchise stretching, junk bonds, Perestroika plays, LatAm markets, Chinese stocks, Russian stocks, tech, utility restructuring (this must be most of the hot markets since the mid-80s), the back of the envelope answer is 3-5 years.

Now, does say, the Chinese communist party or the House of Saud have a 3-5 year strategy for maintaining economic power or a 30-50 year strategy? Probably the latter (maybe even a 300-500 year strategy, who knows?) So pumping gold to $600 and dropping it to $400 over the course of a year is neither here nor there for such parties since they have different time frames.

In this way, the shenanigans with ETFs will come and go without affecting the long-term picture for gold. All you really have to think about is one number - the real interest rate in the US - when this spikes positive then the gold game is over for the time being for anyone who has to do their sums in a fiat currency.

In the meantime, the ETF a very clear signal that gold will be allowed to rise in the short term - merely as part of the strategy for getting the public interested in commodities. In order to sell a get rich scheme, a few people have to be seen to get rich first. Gold is perfect because it is a 'fear' investment that can offer the returns associated with a 'greed' investment.

Boilermaker

(09/23/2003; 07:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109220)

WGC ETF Debate

My comments after reading excellent posts on this subject.

The devil is in the details. Has anyone seen the financial structure of this ETF beast being designed by the WGC? What about the type of assets that will be held. Physical only or paper gold? Here's a snip from Tim Wood from a month ago;
Posted: 2003/08/18 Mon 16:00 EDT | � Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW YORK -- Speculation about the World Gold Council's proposed globally tradable gold security, Equity Gold, is increasing proportionate to the time it is taking to clear regulatory hurdles.
WGC officials cannot comment because the fund remains under starter's orders from the US Securities & Exchange Commission. The proposed fund's registration statement was filed in mid May this year and has been under intensive development for the better part of a year.
Apparently the intellectual property dispute with Bank of New York over an earlier iteration of the fund remains unresolved, but that is a relatively minor hitch against market talk that insufficient custodial guarantees may be the only nail needed to seal Equity Gold's coffin.

end snip

Tim seems to think that "insufficient custodial guarantees" may derail this product. No one has seen the asset structure so it's premature to make definite conclusions. I totally agree that the fund will probably be designed to hold less than 100% physical gold. If it is, then our fears are justified and this ETF will be just another scheme to deflect investor's money away from real gold.

I also wonder how the SEC views this thing. It's been a long time in incubation. Clearly it's gotten someone's attention at the SEC. Perhaps the SEC sees it as a hedge fund which is what it would be if it held derivatives. I know very little about these distinctions and how they affect the approval process. Any comments here would be apprciated

I can envision that a lot of hucksters will jump on the gold bandwagon to get a piece of the action as gold gets the attention of the great uninformed. I'm curious if our gracious host Sir MK has considered launching a product that would satisfy the most conservative goldbug while appealing to the broader market to come?

Boilermaker

DummyANI

(09/23/2003; 08:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109221)

Commercial-shorts want to lose more than 883 million dollar

Magma Volume of Volcano Commercial-short-Gold at Mt.COMEXThis is my trial to calculate commercial-short losses according to their short-cover behaviors.

Recent CFTC reports are as follows.

In 2003 Non-commerc-long chg Commerc-short change.from08.05 Close-gold
Aug. 05, 075,623 chg�17,688 c.shrt 145,598 chg-21,856 000000 cls0351.2
Aug. 12, 084,578 chg+08,955 c.shrt 151,016 chg+05,418 005,418 cls0360.0
Aug. 19, 104,223 chg+19,645 c.shrt 174,211 chg+23,195 028,613 cls0363.0
Aug. 26, 117,340 chg+13,117 c.shrt 184,612 chg+10,401 039,014 cls0366.8
Sept 02, 146,230 chg+28,890 c.shrt 209,840 chg+25,228 064,242 cls0373.2
Sept 09, 151,530 chg+05,300 c.shrt 204,805 chg-05,035 062,701 cls0382.8
Sept 16, 144,818 chg�06,712 c.shrt 200,273 chg-04,532 061,313 cls0374.6
If- Sept23, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 195,489 chg-04,784 059,848 cls0380
If- Sept30, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 185,489 chg-10,000 056,786 cls0410
If- Oct.07, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 175,489 chg-10,000 053,724 cls0410
If- Oct.14, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 155,489 chg-20,000 047,600 cls0440
If- Oct.21, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 135,489 chg-20,000 041,476 cls0440
If- Oct.28, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 095,489 chg-40,000 029,229 cls0470

These data indicate that if COMEX-gold went up 30 dollars, then they begins to cover their short positions at a rate of 4784 average-close.

fix-Sept09: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 05,035 short-side loss 15.1 M$
fix-Sept16: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 04,532 short-side loss 13.6 M$
These positions were already settled.

Following is my predictions.
if--Sept23: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 04,784 short-side loss 14.3 M$
if--Sept30: Gold+60$ 410$/ounce short-cover 10,000 short-side loss 60.0 M$
if-Oct.07: Gold+60$ 410$/ounce short-cover 10,000 short-side loss 60.0 M$
i-Oct.14: Gold+90$ 440$/ounce short-cover 20,000 short-side loss 180.0 M$
if-Oct.21: Gold+90$ 440$/ounce short-cover 20,000 short-side loss 180.0 M$
if-Oct.28: Gold+120$ 470$/ounce short-cover 40,000 short-side loss 360.0 M$

Commercial-shorts want to lose more than 883 million dollar

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Socrates964

(09/23/2003; 08:41:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109222)

Boilermaker

Seems naively pessimistic to me to assume that the fund will immediately be stuffed with paper derivatives and allowed to sink - its backers know that they have to work within the constraints of the global economy, and until the US sets its house in order, the demand for gold won't go away.

It seems to me, therefore, that the purpose of the fund is much more to accentuate and control trading swings in a market that would otherwise be too narrow to handle the weight of money that is likely to be thrown at it. The key point here being that large players can exchange their holdings for bullion. We can hence imagine the following:

1. They take out a leveraged short bet on the shares.
2. They withdraw their bullion and dump it on the market.
3. POG goes down, they buy back the shares and their cash goes back into the fund, which then buys back the bullion. 4. At the same time, they take a leveraged long bet on the shares.

This, at least, is how I understand it operating, the key point being that when a market becomes hot, the trading volume expands. The problem with gold is that the physical supply of the metal constrains the volume, so you have to invent an instrument that can 'take the strain'. The other important point is that there are far more investors/funds that feel comfortable holding a share certificate than a gold bar - indeed, many funds will only be able to own gold through this kind of equity vehicle. The ETF thus puts a weight of money behind the manipulators that probably doesn't want to take delivery of the physical - the next best thing to a blank check.

My hunch here is that the longer-term accumulators in Asia will work out what the game is and will have the good sense to trade in the same direction as the fund.

Wall Street will also have invented another pyramid scheme that will be every bit as glittery as the Yahoos and Junipers that would oscillate by 10-20% in a trading day and then close unchanged on the day.

Knallgold

(09/23/2003; 09:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109223)

ETF

Is the ETF the "shadow of the new european Gold paradigm" as FOA predicted?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/23/2003; 10:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109224)

Build your financial base

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Paper Avalanche

(09/23/2003; 12:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109225)

@ GFG and GAB

Good afternoon! I believe that I understand your position regarding the ETF. I was rambling a bit last night. To summarize my position in a more succinct way, I believe that:

1. The ETF will not be a means by which the price of gold can be controlled. Only a means by which paper dollar holders can participate in the rise in the dollar price of physical gold.

2. The price of gold can be controlled by paper only in a closed system. The US dollar was this closed system for the past five decades in that it both performed as the medium by which gold could be purchased (gold denominated in dollars for international trade) AND the dollar faction effectively had the only price discovery mechanism in the western financial markets, the Comex. The events of the last 36 months have provided market alternatives to this closed system.

3. To further illustrate the ETF's use as a vehicle of participation and not control, I sumbit the fact that after the LSE and NYSE begin trading the ETF next month, the CAC (Paris) is scheduled to begin trading the ETF in early November. I believe that it is inconcievable for the French, who have been instrumental in the creation of the Euro, will knowingly embrace yet another means by which the US dollar will be able to indefinitely set the price of gold.

I would respectfully put this question to anyone who can expand my hypothesis concerning the ETF - just how would the ETF control the price of gold?

IMO, the ETF is not a hammer but a mirror.

Take care all.

PA

(09/23/2003; 12:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109226)

@ Paper Avalanche msg#: 109225 ETF

Does the ETF have to buy physical gold with 100 % of the deposits I wonder? The clients obviously do not like to own physical� Therefore, demands for physical delivery would be low. Let us make some magic, ETF could say, initiating a fractional reserve gold banking. Logical?

Great Albino Bat

(09/23/2003; 13:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109227)

Paper Avalanche and ge posts....

ge: I tend to concur with you, in your skepticism regarding ETF. When the door is open to abuses, there will be abuses.

Paper Avalanche: Well, I do hope you are right and I am wrong.

In any case, it appears to me that the US economy is beyond repair; or if there is a repair, it will be many years in the making - beyond my time horizon.

The days of dollar supremacy and hegemony are over. A new world order is forming and will establish itself; let us hope that a horrendous world war is not a consequence of US decline.

On another note: the P&F chart for gold looks very promising.

Get some shiny while you can!

The GAB

White Rose

(09/23/2003; 13:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109228)

Electronic Gold as the investment lightning rod

Perhaps I will make everybody's eyes roll because I will state something that has already been said many times. Bear with me.

It I was to create a fund whose value rose and fell with the value of gold, the temptations to "cheat" would be substantial.

Lets say I use the cash 20% for real gold, 20% for cash, 20% for gold stocks, and 40% for various derivatives designed to move up faster than the price of gold, but with varying degrees of liquidity (i.e. some positions I could sell quickly, some I would have to hold to maturity).

As the architect of this scheme, I would have to "crash test" it for a varity of circumstances. What if some event caused gold to drop as a popular instrument, and 3/4 of my customers wanted their money back. What if I had to redeem all that money after gold rose substantially?

What if the price of gold rose considerably because of a very public default in the gold market (i.e. someone failed to deliver physical)? What if there were rumours that my fund was not solvent? What if a good pile of the gold stocks or derivatives went belly up? What if I owned enough gold that the government insisted that I hand over my gold to prevent the meltdown of the financial system?

Notice that so far I am not assuming that there is anything deceptive about this enterprise.

I am not as familiar as other here on the various instruments I could use to hedge one or all of these risks. What I am suggesting is that it would be very difficult to pay people off once there were a lot of redemptions and gold had gone up (as we all hope) even when one has the best of intentions.

I personally would hope that the publicity about this enterprise would cause many to consider gold, and then consider the risks of not holding onto the physical. The logical conclusion is to place an order at this and similar establishments.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/23/2003; 13:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109229)

Page Update!

Gandalf the White

(09/23/2003; 15:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109230)

YES, INDEED, Sir GAB --- A BEAUTIFUL P&F chart it is ! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PThe next little green "X" will be the start of the "TO THE MOON" trip !
<;-)

mikal

(09/23/2003; 15:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109231)

Strong Talk for a Weaker Dollar

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2003/nf20030923_1195.htm"The G7 nations implicit criticism of China and Japan spells out the case for a devalued greenback. If history is any guide, it's certain to happen."

mikal

(09/23/2003; 15:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109232)

Wrangling Over Exchange Rates

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2083288Excerpts:
"The G-7 says that markets should set exchange rates. But one of the seven- Japan- thinks they need a little help.....

The Bank[of Japan] hopes the yen will trade at 110 or more to the dollar in the future. That line might soon be swept away as well."

Gandalf the White

(09/23/2003; 15:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109233)

AND here Sir GAB is a VERY UGLY chart !! <;-)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d1It did not fill the DOWN GAP of yesterday either !
DIVE DIVE DIVE US$
<;-(

Waverider

(09/23/2003; 16:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109234)

Test

Test - computer problems.

TownCrier

(09/23/2003; 16:51:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109235)

Waverider problems

Your side, or ours?

R.

Waverider

(09/23/2003; 16:56:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109236)

TownCrier

My apologies Randy - yes, my side - I have a new Firewall that is not allowing me some internet functions - posting here is okay though. Thank you. Again, my apologies.
Waverider

Tate

(09/23/2003; 17:31:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109237)

TEST !!!!

How about little test.

Place 10 Oz shiny gold bar on a table with equivalent amount any fiat currency beside.
What would average person from various respective countries choose?

Any suggestions.

R Powell

(09/23/2003; 17:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109238)

Silver news

http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr12sep03.html Government moves at a snail's pace but at least this idea is still alive and arsenic will, after year's end, no longer be used for a wood preservative.

As with the idea of improving our power transmittion lines with silver coated super conductive cable, this silver based wood preservative presupposes that silver is plentiful. The silver production industry would provide much more, I believe, if the market price were higher. Commercial use of silver in either or both of these programs would help. There is only a short term surplus of $5.00/ounce silver left. Double the price and there is still only a short term surplus in storage but if the price were to double then mining operations would once more be profitable. Black Blade has mentioned many times that some time is needed between planning a mining venture and bring the physical to market. Imho there will be enough delay here for silver prices to appreciate quite a bit.
Silver- still well under $100 per pound!

R Powell

(09/23/2003; 17:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109239)

Hey Tate

How about a three way contest? Fiat, gold and silver. I'll choose, let me see here.... oh yes, make mine silver please!

Aragorn III

(09/23/2003; 17:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109240)

The way it must be

When central bankers gather for many reasons they may discuss far ranging topics. When protocol demands attendence at a function (IMF/G7/Dubai) and currencies alone provide a ready topic to meet the press, why then do they publically offer comments on gold, comments which are altogether hollow?

As preparation! For you, the market, to gradually acclimate to the sound of "gold" in association with these speakers.

After the shockwaves of 1999 the steady hands at the helm discovered that pronouncements of gold (yes, even those most positive) should not be dropped like a hedge-buster bombshell out of blue sky. Let there be hints. Let the plane be seen on approach. Let the sirens wail. Let it circle overhead. Let it be loosed in a graceful descent with a trailing plume of white smoke. Let the market below prepare; not be caught unaware, napping under hedges.

You have seen in your countries, wherever they be on earth, the central banks always endeavor to move slowly and speak carefully not to rock the boat when delivering changes in MONETARY policy.

Practically, you have NOT had similar first-hand experience seeing a delivery of (new) GOLD policy.

Until now.

As a few curious eyes look up, in the distance, there is seen a plane approaching...

got gold?

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 17:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109241)

Thank you, kind sirs! -- ETFs

It would take this entire post to mention all your names, so I will simply say thank you ALL for your views and discussion! I have learned much and have, thanks to your discussions, considered many points of view. Only time (if that) will give us the answers we seek.

In the meantime, purchase of physical gold and silver is still possible at bargain prices! I just can't help myself, paper doesn't give me the same comfort and security, nor does it inspire confidence. So, I'll keep on keeping it simple. Obviously, of the two, it seems "fear" is motivating me more than "greed." The desire not to experience erosion, pillaging and covert theft of my assets has set my course. I simply try to take big GIANT steps to follow in the footsteps of our wise Friends.

Lady GFG

Cavan Man

(09/23/2003; 18:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109242)

Sounds like the delegation from Argentina.

demographics aside, you've got to be joking??DUBAI, United Arab Emirates Sept. 23 �
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told global bankers and economists worried about the tide of red ink in Washington that the massive U.S. budget deficit would be halved by the end of 2008.

Snow made the pledge Tuesday at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, both of which have cited the growing U.S. trade and budget deficits as dark clouds looming over the fragile global recovery.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 18:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109243)

Tate @msg. #109237 - TEST!!!!

Which would the average person from some respective countries choose? Curious and curiouser....

I'd LOVE to come up with some clever possibilites but at the end of my day, the creative juices are coagulating! (Also, I'm not astute enough in all the different currencies and the attitudes that coexist therewith. Some of our very saavy knights could create some very interesting choices!)

I, simply, would choose the one that wouldn't blow away.

Americans might choose the one moved by hot air.
Japanese may choose the one that added heat to the American's hot air.
Europeans would ... ?

Since R Powell has already claimed silver, I guess I'm stuck (sigh) with gold. Ah, the inequities of life!

Interesting "TEST," Tate!

Lady GFG

Smeagol

(09/23/2003; 19:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109244)

You didn't say

... we has to choose jusst one, so Smeagol would take It, silver, AND fiat, and then trade Fiat for more of It! Okay, okay, Smeagol can joke, yes? Alright, we sees we are digging a hole. How's about Smeagol tries some hai-ku (sss... sounds Orcish to us) to make amends?

bright Sun, Yellow Face
softer the Moon, the White Face
they shines in our hands

or,

Guard your Precious well
keep It safe, keep It secret
Evil Men wants It

All right, sstop groaning, we knows when to quits!

S.

Tate

(09/23/2003; 19:28:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109245)

When mixing Ag and Au with fiat, which one burns?

Thank You for responding.

WE also know what response from Indian national, or Argentinean, Chinese or many other people from "underdeveloped" parts of world would be.
American would say: who needs that copper.

According to Gresham's law silver does not displace gold and vise versa. Two metals are not competitors to each other in trade and in nature, rather live closely together. Gold in a free form always has some content of silver when mined and only about 80% pure before refining. So they are friends. If you attempt melting fiat paper with any of this metals which one burns? Smile.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 19:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109246)

R Powell @ msg. #109238 -- Re Silver

I have always LOVED silver! In fact, my name on another forum was silver-based. I think I have loved silver for decades because I always, intuitively, loved REAL METALS! I have a lot of copper jewelry, too. But growing up, not poor but no excess discretionary funds -- I always chose sterling or 925 silver jewelry. For many years, I only wore silver because I refused to wear "fake" metal (and 10k gold is fake, in my book...14k is slightly better. Besides, for many years, I couldn't even afford 10k gold! The choice was easy -- buy real silver jewelry instead of gold-plated junk.). So, being a garage sale and thrift store devotee, I collected several pounds of this silver jewelry.

I, too, think silver is enormously undervalued. All of Ted Butler's statistics aside, my (simple) logic is that silver offers an incredible opportuntiy on TWO fronts: its industrial usages (I'm also a colloidal silver buff, as well as owning a British water filter that uses silver in its anti-bacterial action). Added to that usage, the history of silver coinage is imbedded in mankind's archives (memory) as a medium of exchange. A double hit! Silver, IMO, is not just "poor man's gold" but it is simply what it was pre-1964...effectively, smaller denominations of gold. So, my 1 oz. gold coins can stay intact and I don't have to buy bunches of 1/10 oz. gold, etc. I have SILVER for that purpose (smaller purchases).

It was thrilling to me when I was able to purchase REAL gold! There is nothing like it. My criteria for jewelry is now at least 18k. You have to look hard to find that in middle America! But no gold jewelry gives me the pleasure that a beautiful 1 oz. coin does! No, I can't wear my coins (and my favorite is the beautiful Credit Suisse "Pampa" or "Fortuna" .. I forget what it's called but it's the lady with the cornucopia. A work of art!!). So, I am absolutely thrilled to be so blessed so as to be able to actually own some physical gold! But, truly, my heart has belonged to silver for a very long time! I am just quite grateful they are mutually supportive!

Lady GFG

Paper Avalanche

(09/23/2003; 19:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109247)

A challange for the gang

While I have recently mused about the hypothetical impact of the ETF on the dollar price of gold, I am not certain that my hypothesis is correct. To that end, I would be delighted to have any and all input / feeback on the following question so that I can ponder on aspects of my hypothesis that I am simply not able to recognize without the input of others on this fine forum:

If the dollar is no longer the reserve currency for international trade, how will ETF's serve as a paper control of the price of gold?

Take care all.

PA

Leigh

(09/23/2003; 19:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109248)

Aragorn III

It's great to see you posting again! Quick question: What happened to "thunder in the night?" Has it been replaced by "incrementalism?"

R Powell

(09/23/2003; 19:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109249)

Lady GFG

Thanks for expressing your fondness for the metal of the moon. I've been a silver fan myself for some time now after doing my best to disprove Bulter's ravings. I do not agree with his arguments against Comex but I can find no fault with his supply/demand fiqures and his analysis of those numbers.
It may all boil down to the market having to use or consume the combined accumulation of 5,000 years (which the last 50 years have almost done), to precipitate a physical shortage before the silver market awakens to the basic fundamental situation (supply and demand) that it has been disregarding for as long as most silver traders have been alive. Simple no? Ya, I know, this is grossly oversimplified.
I'm glad you like silver.
Rich

Dollar Bill

(09/23/2003; 19:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109250)

*>*.........+

Am I too conspritorial? I think Snow's message to china to devalue and the G-7 talk about Japan and China adjusting is
the USA doing a double dealing.
I think the US wants China and Japan to continue what they are doing, but I am guessing France and Germany are making it a condition before they support any Iraq measure in the UN. As was mentioned in a post today, Snow told them that the deficeit will be HALF what it is now in 2008.
Pretty bold talk.
Before this talk of China letting it's currency rise, The guy from Morgan Stanley had on his commentary his recent trip to China and what he told them about thier currency.
He went into detail telling all the reasons he told the Chinese on why they should continue the present situation of fixing thier currency to the dollar.
Once back, Greenspan starts taking a public stance supporting the chinese currency to rise. Then the Morgan Stanley commentary vanished the next day. The political realities say they should squawk about it because of the job loss situation, but in reality, the jobs are going in many directions, China is just one destination.
The chinese support of the dollar is primary, so I think the rest is a public bluff to placate the euro guys that we
sypathize with thier pain, and support thier aims, but in fact the dollar comes first, so that is the real policy aim.
As was posted here, Greenspan dismissed the job and manufactureing loss, claiming it was not so important as
some say. (Includeing my unemployed neighbors!)

By the way, I could never have guessed how much lying would go on in my life to get me to think about politics and economics the way others want me to mispercieve it.
Also, I no longer consider myself in any way a democrat.
I know they both lie and spin, but really, the democrats are just disgusting. Any present democrats dont get upset with me, I see what I see.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 19:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109251)

Paper Avalanche @109247 -- Mas ETFs

Off-the-cuff: Sorry, I can't really address your question! I don't necessarily view the ETFs as a ploy to "control" the price of gold. What I do view ETFs as is an attempt to subvert the deep human instinct of turning to gold in times of turmoil. Yes, "gold" will become a household name ... for good reason, IMO. My only (current?) real argument with ETFs is that too many people will be influenced by the media-magic and spin...and thus turn to ETFs rather than PHYSICAL in their possession and control.

Maybe ETFs will work when the "greed" factor is still powerful and in play. Physical ownership will come into focus when the "fear" factor sets in ... but according to our Friends, that will be too late for most to be able to find/buy PHYSICAL!

We pays our money and makes our choices!

Even though I couldn't address your question, I look forward to reading others' answers!

Lady GFG

Druid

(09/23/2003; 20:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109252)

(No Subject)

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmSept. 22: In view of the above risks, I believe that the major industrial countries�the United States, the EU, and Japan, in particular�should assume major responsibility for the global recovery and restructuring by introducing structural reforms, raising savings rates, boosting domestic demand, reforming labor markets, adjusting trade policies, giving developing countries greater market access, and gradually addressing the problem of fiscal imbalances. - Mr. ZHOU Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China

I first encountered the phrase, "non-statement statement" in Tom Wolfe's expose on Ken Kesey and his Merry Pranksters. If I wished to wax solipsistic, I might argue that Wolfe "invented" the phrase, but I try to avoid conflating my views and the world at large. Solipsism is a mistake many traders, including myself, make, or in my case made, more than once, when their awareness of causal economic relationships moves from the lips and into the heart. Once one accepts that, for example, overvaluations are indeed eventually rectified, continued overvaluation offends one's sensibilities. How can this happen?, the newly awakened wonder, when the answer to the question lies in their own experience. Looking backwards at a solution makes the transition seem so easy, when it rarely is.

Druid: Looking past the obvious.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 20:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109253)

R Powell @ msg. #190249 -- Silver

Silver HAS to live up to its potential. Between us, we've encompassed both the "right brain" and "left brain" of the matter. How wholistic.

P.S. I'm glad you like silver, too.

Lady GFG

melda laure

(09/23/2003; 20:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109254)

ETF "fund"

Paper Avalanche, Lady GFGAnd just where are the "funds"? I seem to remember something about HSBC-Taiwan... I'm not trying to bad mouth the planned fund- anyone who's been watching this gestation process knows it's a real can of worms, the jurisdiction of the place of storage is merely the least. I'm more interested in the possiblity that you could short this baby like any other stock. I seem to recall that all the major participating banks are expected to act as market makers to make sure the price of the paper tracks the gold price (and I just wonder if buying and selling 400 oz bars will be the mirror image of that activity as it ought to be - though I rather suspect the trading of comex paper on the backside, at least in the short term- resulting in the fanny-equivalent of a duration gap, only this will be a physical/contract gap). Part of me wonders if this means a lot less trading transparency than comex, nymex and the like.

In the short term, look at the total issued volume of the aussie-flavored ETF. It's still quite small in ounces; by comparison the Mrs Watanabe Brigade (ie. Japanese) ate up several times that in a couple months.

As you ask regarding the fate of the american ETF, I suppose the day we see the thing plastered accross CNBC as the price goes to the moon you'll know that "containment herding mode" is in full gear.

Goldfly

(09/23/2003; 21:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109255)

Leigh - incrementalism

I think A3's post was about a nuke strike.

???

Dollar Bill

(09/23/2003; 21:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109256)

*>*............+

Sir Socrates 964, Your "2 cents" , I am looking for adjectives, excellent.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 21:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109257)

melda laure @ msg. #109254 -- ETF (what, again?)

Drats! Just when I was actively trying to convince myself to be open minded to their (ETFs') whole deal you have to go and sound smartly sceptical (to me)! Or should I say, you triggered my natural bias against ETFs.

Being such a simple person, my logic gets stuck there. I just don't comprehend how we can criticize the stock markets, derivative markets, central banks, ad nauseum and yet, as the gold community, embrace (without even knowing their paper-manipulation details (what few we'll ever be privvy to)) yet ANOTHER scheme that says it's 'AS GOOD AS GOLD.' Yes, color me stupid ... but a rose is a rose is a rose. Paper is paper is paper. Gold is gold is gold.

Hrrmph!

Lady GFG

Black Blade

(09/23/2003; 21:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109258)

@Waverider

I can sympathize with what problems you may be having. A few months ago I downloaded a free program that stops popups dead in their tracks (webwasher.com). But I had a couple of unintended problems like posting for example because I failed to setup the program properly and it took me a few minutes to figure it out (a small easy to identify problem though). Now it works like a charm and haven't had any popups since giving me headaches.

Actually it's free software downloadable for individuals that I found out about in Readers Digest of all places. It also occasionally updates to stop the scammers from getting ways around the popup blocker. It also sped up my loading pages like USAGOLD as well. Now if only I could figure out how to stop getting all kinds of email spam offering me all manner of sexual enhancements, porn, get-rich-guick schemes, credit cards, mortgages, etc. Heck, I even almost missed an email from Gandy the Wizard once because his email got mis-directed to the "junk folder" at one time. Somehow his email was "determined" to be spam by the way I set up the spam blocker program. Hmmm...

Sorry O' Grand Wizard! Anyway, hope all is going well with your firewall installation waverider. BTW, congrats on the POG guess.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/23/2003; 21:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109259)

World Gold Council sponsored ETF (Securitized gold shares?)

Good or bad? It depends on what you expect from it I guess. Personally I rather have physical gold in my possession because to me physical gold (and silver) is insurance. We have seen how the markets can just close up shop for several days at a pop. Remember what happened on September 11, 2001? No one had access to their investment portfolios as the markets closed for several days. Yet even though my stocks were locked up and inaccessible I could grab a fist full of my gold and silver. I think most here view physical precious metals as portfolio insurance and having it in their possession is better than not having it in an emergency. The "lock up" in the markets was a wake up call much like during the Great Depression people lost their savings when banks closed up or were inaccessible due to a "Bank Holiday".

Now the flip side of the coin so to speak. Many large Funds are restricted from owning anything but stocks and bonds. Therefore they are not allowed to hold precious metals as a form of insurance even if they wanted to. Besides, it is almost impossible to buy such large quantities of physical gold on a timely basis as demonstrated by Goldcorp's attempt to make a large (actually a moderate) size purchase of physical gold even after being assured that a quantity ten times the size that they bought could be readily acquired. Actually it took a couple of weeks if I remember correctly. The story is located in the "Gilded Opinion" here at USAGOLD I believe. The point I am making is if the ETF is actually shares based on actual physical gold located in a vault then this would be a way for large funds to put gold in the mix of their securities. I understand that the price will be based on the spot price of gold and shares will be issued only on the amount of physical gold in the vault and new shares can only be issued as more gold is acquired and placed in the vault. The gold supposedly can't be loaned nor can any derivative structures be made using the gold as collateral. So in this regard it may be good as it will create another source of demand. I am not sure if the Aussie fund will be combined with the UK fund and the proposed US fund either.

But for the individual investor looking for portfolio insurance and I mean true physical gold as insurance come what may that can't be isolated away from him/her then I would stick with the "real deal". If I want to speculate then I will buy gold mining shares of gold producers based on the qualities that I determine to fit my needs and what I look for in a speculative instrument like stocks. OK, for disclosure purposes, I do own shares in three debt free unhedged gold producers. But that is not "portfolio insurance", that is a speculative and hopefully profitable investment. The physical "real deal" is insurance in my possession where I can get to it no matter what world event takes place and no matter what may occur in the financial markets. So is the WGC securitized gold shares good or bad? It is a matter of perspective but they are two different things entirely and it's comparing apples and oranges from my point of view.

- Black Blade

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 21:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109260)

Druid @ msg. #109252 (No Subject)

Perhaps it's the hour, but your post seemed "deep" to me (most of the few brain cells are retiring). I loved the Chinese bank governor's quote...it had me going right up to the point where I read WHO was saying it! Very veiled. But accurate?

I did wonder how a country is supposed to increase its savings while at the same time boosting its domestic demand. Hey -- an idea -- GOLD! You increase your savings while boosting the demand for...GOLD! I guess that means, for me, I can only buy Gold Eagles? Or only gold mined from American mines? Yea, I'm "patriotic" after all!!

As for the rest of your wonderful post -- although I'm from the Wolfe/Kesey era, "non-statement statement" (or for that matter, "solipism") never entered my awareness or vocabulary. Much to learn.

Could you expand on what you mean by the Chinese governor's statement being a "non-statement statement?" (If that is, indeed, what you were saying?).

I feel like I'm being too verbose here (on the Forum) so I'll say "goodnight!" Thanks!

Lady GFG

DummyANI

(09/23/2003; 22:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109261)

Commercial-shorts want to lose more than 1307 million dollar �Part2

Magma Volume of Volcano Commercial-short-Gold at Mt.COMEXThis is my trial to calculate commercial-short losses according to their short-cover behaviors.

Recent CFTC reports are as follows.

In 2003 Non-commerc-long chg Commerc-short change.from08.05 Close-gold
Aug. 05, 075,623 chg�17,688 c.shrt 145,598 chg-21,856 000000 cls0351.2
Aug. 12, 084,578 chg+08,955 c.shrt 151,016 chg+05,418 005,418 cls0360.0
Aug. 19, 104,223 chg+19,645 c.shrt 174,211 chg+23,195 028,613 cls0363.0
Aug. 26, 117,340 chg+13,117 c.shrt 184,612 chg+10,401 039,014 cls0366.8
Sept 02, 146,230 chg+28,890 c.shrt 209,840 chg+25,228 064,242 cls0373.2
Sept 09, 151,530 chg+05,300 c.shrt 204,805 chg-05,035 062,701 cls0382.8
Sept 16, 144,818 chg�06,712 c.shrt 200,273 chg-04,532 061,313 cls0374.6
If- Sept23, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 195,489 chg-04,784 059,848 cls0380
If- Sept30, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 185,489 chg-10,000 056,786 cls0410
If- Oct.07, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 175,489 chg-10,000 053,724 cls0410
If- Oct.14, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 155,489 chg-20,000 047,600 cls0440
If- Oct.21, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 135,489 chg-20,000 041,476 cls0440
If- Oct.28, xxxx chgxxxxxxx c.shrt 095,489 chg-40,000 029,229 cls0470

These data indicate that if COMEX-gold went up 30 dollars, then they begins to cover their short positions at a rate of 5000(4784 average in the recent two weeks)-close.

At Aug.05, they had already 145,598 short-positions. Its mean cost is (260+350)/2=305$ which is a nearly average sell-cost of 145,598 short-positions. So I revise commercial-short-loss as follows.
3493 x (380-305)x100 = 26.2 M$
1541 x (380-365)x100 = 02.3 M$
rv1-Sept09: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 05,035 short-side loss 28.5 M$

3144 x (380-305)x100 = 23.6 M$
1388 x (380-365)x100 = 02.1 M$

rv1-Sept16: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 04,532 short-side loss 25.7 M$
These positions were already settled, and the commercial-short loss was 54.2 million dollars at Sep. 16 2003..

Following is my predictions.
rv1-Sept23: Gold+30$ 380$/ounce short-cover 04,784 short-loss 27.1 M$
rv1-Sept30: Gold+60$ 410$/ounce short-cover 10,000 short-loss 86.6 M$
rv1-Oct.07: Gold+60$ 410$/ounce short-cover 10,000 short-loss 86.6 M$
rv1-Oct.14: Gold+90$ 440$/ounce short-cover 20,000 short-loss 233.2M$
rv1-Oct.21: Gold+90$ 440$/ounce short-cover 20,000 short-loss 233.2M$
rv1-Oct.28: Gold+120$ 470$/ounce short-cover 40,000 short-loss 586.5M$

Commercial-shorts want to lose more than 1253.2 million dollars further from this week.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Black Blade

(09/23/2003; 22:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109262)

Will debt buildup sabotage the recovery?

http://www.iht.com/articles/110808.html
Snippit:

LONDON George W. Bush, the French prime minister and the average British home buyer may not agree on many things, but on one issue of crucial importance to the global economy they seem to see eye to eye. All are borrowing freely, as governments and private households around the world load up with ever greater debt. Bush and Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin see a fiscal stimulus as one way to lift their countries back to the prosperity of the 1990's, while consumers, especially in Britain and America but elsewhere too, often behave as if those good times never went away.

The nagging worry now is that the recovery is a mirage, that consumers, companies and governments are simply living on borrowed money - and time. In that case, as soon as the benefits of U.S. and European tax breaks run out, economies could slip back toward recession, or just sputter along for months or years. "If you can't get sustainable growth with all the money we've thrown at it, then we're in real trouble," said Brian Hilliard, an economist at SG Securities in London. The buildup of debt is impressive. Joachim Fels, an economist at Morgan Stanley, has calculated that total private-sector debt - that is, debt from companies and individuals - rose to 134 percent of gross domestic product last year in the euro area, from 106 percent in 1995. In the United States, that ratio has risen to 152 percent. In Britain, where consumers have cashed in on rising home prices and where companies have borrowed heavily, private-sector debt has surged by 54 percentage points since 1995, to 190 percent of gross domestic product last year. Mortgage equity withdrawals in the first quarter rose to 7.3 percent of after-tax income, according to the Bank of England. That was the highest rate since 1988 - only months before home prices started to plunge in Britain, sending the economy into a tailspin.

One way to square things would be to bring back inflation, which looked dead and buried when central bankers raised the specter of its opposite, deflation, earlier this year. Indeed, by keeping interest rates at the lowest levels in decades in most parts of the industrialized world, policymakers have actually signaled that they would welcome a bit more inflation as a defense against falling prices. If salaries rise along with prices, inflation can be a debtor's best friend. "With central banks turned deflation fighters and reluctant to prick asset bubbles, and with rising private-sector debt making inflation more desirable to the private sector, it may be only a matter of time before inflation rears its ugly head again," wrote Fels in a note to clients.

Black Blade: Looks like real inflation is already here to me. But the Fed is working hard to flood the world with dollars while some foreign nations are willing to buy all the US debt they can. How much longer can the Japanese for example keep selling Yen and buying dollars before the system breaks down. With over 9 trillion Yen spent so far it doesn't look good for the Japanese. However, some currency market players in Japan have figured out the game and have profited wildly at the expense of the Japanese government and people. Some are proposing a "tit for tat" retaliation against Japan and US Congressional members gave proposed a 27% tariff on Chinese goods for their refusal to let the Yuan float on the currency market. It could get interesting soon enough.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 22:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109263)

Black Blade @ msg. #10925-- WGC/ETF

Thank you, BB! You always come across as the voice of reason.

Question: I realize mainstream (non-PM Funds) Funds can't invest in physical gold. Can those same mainstream Funds invest in gold mining companies or do they need to change their charter (or whatever)? When I read about "Funds" buying the mining shares, are they all those mainstream Funds or just PM Funds? Logically, I would think that mainsream Funds would first move to buying gold mining shares, then maybe ETFs. If not, I would have to ask why the "market" has bypassed what would seem to be the next logical progressive step of Funds buying mining shares and then to maybe buying ETFs?

I know the PM market is very small and there's not a whole lot of room for "new" money to flow into it (without the POG going sky high). Hey, what am I saying...that's a BAD thing, right? We wouldn't want gold to reach its true value without the brokers being able to milk the cow.

Anyway, I'm glad you weighed in with your comments. You are always so rational, I'm amazed. I'm starting to think of you as my poster child for mental health. Thank you!

Lady GFG

slingshot

(09/23/2003; 22:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109264)

Coin Shop Report

Todays venture points to both gold and silver is on the buy.
Both dealers said that the majority of sales were in gold bullion. Silver had slowed with some selling,but had more purchases. One ounce eagles,Gone, just smaller denominations with varieties of Krugs,Pandas and Maples.
Silver 100 oz, Gone, with 10 0z in stock and 1 0z rounds (combined both stores) less than 200 pieces.
Silver Eagles were plentiful. One store has had a run on Gold $5 and $10 coins.

Question, I have a 10 0z bar that states it was minted from the U.S. Strategic Stockpile Silver. Formerly stored at th U.S. Assay office. San Francisco. 1981.
Would it be worth it to set aside from core being there is no more Silver Strategic Stockpile.

Slingshot---------------<>

slingshot

(09/23/2003; 22:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109265)

To the Winners

Congrats to the winners of the price guessing contest. Enjoyed all the entries.

Slingshot------------------<>

Druid

(09/23/2003; 23:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109266)

GratefulForGold (9/23/03; 21:55:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109260)

"Could you expand on what you mean by the Chinese governor's statement being a "non-statement statement?" (If that is, indeed, what you were saying?)."

Druid: GFG, I posted a portion of Mr. Lewis "Morning Thoughts" of what his interpretation of a "non-statement statement" is. My own interpretation is reading between the lines or listen for what is not being said. This would suggest that you the listener hold a wealth of knowledge from which to compare too so as to not easily be mislead. When you think of a "non-statement statement" a red flag should immediately go up and the first thing that should come to mind is politician. I hope this helps.

I highly recommend "ZMM", enjoy the following post, also by Mr. Lewis.

"Sept. 19: and what that means is that the law of gravity exists nowhere except in people's heads! It's a ghost! We are all of us very arrogant and conceited about running down other people's ghosts but just as ignorant and barbaric and superstitious about our own ghosts. - Robert Pirsig

Reading Zen, for me, is, in a sense, like putting on a comfortable pair of old shoes which were worn in by someone else. We both climbed the mountain presented to us as truth only to find contradictions, the resolutions of which required entertainment of new ideas and the exorcism of others. Fortunately, for me, I wasn't nearly as driven or as gifted as Mr. Pirsig which allowed my personality more time to develop. Moreover, the mountain of faith I was climbing, economics, was not, at the time, nearly as high as that which he was ascending, physical science. However we both climbed the mountain assuming that the answer we sought could be found only to find that the search for truth sometimes takes you places you never expected.

A search for truth, in the abstract, should not, I believe, be conflated with the search for a truth. To seek to prove the truth of a statement or any collection thereof is, in my view, to stop searching for truth, per se. In similar fashion to the way in which the policy of linking money to gold created equilibrating forces in the general quantification of value, so too does faith in the truth of any statement create equilibrating mental forces which aim to order the world in relation to the "known" truths. Whether the foundational truth is true is not subject to debate for if it was, the equilibrating forces would no longer operate.

Sometimes, however, we discover that faith in one truth leads to unpleasant and consequently for some, unacceptable conclusions, setting up, in turn a need for resolution. Consider how you might react to two alternate results of a biopsy. In general, people who find that analysis of a biopsy leads doctors to conclude that they are dying seek another opinion, while those to whom doctors give a less dire prognosis rarely seek further. In the former instance, most people's thirst for life, or fear of death outweighs their faith either in that doctor's application of theory or in more radical individuals in the science of medicine itself. That is, the test subject's analysis of the medical opinion is more a function of the relation of the conclusion to his desire rather than a dispassionate critique of the accuracy by which the doctors applied theory to data.

Those of us raised in cultures which revere medical science, and who are directly, at least in their minds, unaffected by its conclusions will, upon hearing of the dissident's unacceptance of the dogma, think that the dissident has allowed their personal desires to cloud their ability to reason. Neither position, in my view, is correct, in the sense that that ultimate test of any view is experience. If the dissident in question does succumb to the diagnosed illness, a somewhat dubious proposition in itself, then and only then is the view validated.

"Where are you going with this, Dave?" you might be wondering. Economics, in a sense, is like medicine, only in the case of macro-economics, the body in question is the collective, society. Leaving aside the utility of this perspective, which evokes thoughts of the problems of "national health", macro-economics suffers from the same problems as medicine in that sometimes the patient doesn't want to believe the diagnosis.

For example, but a few short decades ago one central aspect of economic dogma was that unanchored monetary systems always collapsed in financial chaos. It was faith in this tenet which, as noted, created the equilibrating forces which kept the general prices level stable over the long term, albeit with credit cycle induced fluctuations around the mean. Whether due to over-selling of the benefits of such links, or simply the rejection, due to their undesirability, of forecasts based on that truth, faith in the benefits of such a link wavered, setting up an eventual test of the truth of the tenet, which I believe is coming soon.

Expanding on our medical metaphor, sometimes, particularly when a theory is mature but not old, it is seen as more closed and definitive than it eventually proves to be. Sometimes a doctor's application of theory leads to a definitive prognosis, "you have 6 months to live," not the less definitive but more accurate view that "in general, people we have studied who presented with your symptoms all died within six months, which leads me to believe that you too will fall within that category." The closed end prognosis sets up a possible problem in that, in the event that you haven't died in six months, you might disregard the view altogether. The symptoms which once seemed a harbinger of death now fade into the background of your awareness.

It seems to me that just such a mental error may have occurred in economics. Those who argued against any relaxation of hard money standards often conjured up visions of imminent collapse, only to discover that the forecasts were wrong, either in terms of scale or in terms of time. The late 60s strike me as the time when the hard money die hards, acting as the definitive doctor in our metaphor, gave the patient six months to live, only to find that, while the patient was ill, he didn't die. Moreover, after suffering through a near fatal episode in the late 70s, the patient seemed to recover its old vigor.

Then the walls of the honest money edifice started tumbling, slowly at first, but then faster and faster as the patient kept on breathing. Sure there were scary moments when some felt the tug of the ancient religion, but the mainstream preferred to think that eternal life, or in the jargon of the times, permanent prosperity, was now possible. This sense of infallibility eventually coalesced into the late 90s stock boom, which, according to the IMF, was the largest in modern history.

Its collapse, in the main confined to the Tech/Telecom sectors, has restored a degree of faith in the old nostrums, but, having tasted, ever so briefly, the fruit of faith in permanent prosperity, some are loathe to either wake up from the dream, or more perniciously, wake others up from the dream. Faith in the new dogma of flexible exchange rates and subjective monetary policy has been embedded in our laws so now we await a test of their truthfullness. Like a man who outlived his six month "death sentence" only to come up with a that old horrible cough two years later, we dread to think that perhaps the old prognosis was correct after all. The conventional wisdom, in my view, is locked in denial.

Whether the current system survives the coming test remains to be seen. This is perhaps an unsatisfying view given my expressions of faith in the hard money dogma, but I share Pirsig's view above, experiments are where the rubber of ideas hits the road of reality. Just because you believe in a ghost, doesn't mean it exists, which seems true both individually and collectively. None of which is to argue that I haven't wagered on an outcome consistent with the old faith, I have. However, to the extent you find my musings more or less in alignment with your own, please don't think I am sure, I'm not. I await each day with as much child-like wonder as I can muster, happy to live in a creation not of my own making.

In the interests of full disclosure, my September DJX put options have expired worthless."

otish mountain

(09/23/2003; 23:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109267)

Robert Pirsig

Druid
Thank You for the link. Zen and the Art of Motorcyle Maintenance. An important book given to me by dear friend many years ago. I have given away many copies since.

Highly recommended

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 23:23:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109268)

MK, Towncrier/Randy -- or whomever is responsible!

I won't go so far as to say you stole my heart ... but ...

Your homepage now has the "The World in Gold" (WGC) listed AFTER "The Gold Trail."

Demurely, she smiled an innermost smile and spoke from her heart when saying "Thank You."

(Yukon, it must have been your insider influence).

Thank you for your simple honesty, MK and Team.

Lady GFG

otish mountain

(09/23/2003; 23:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109269)

Aragorn III #109240

Your words paint the canvas of my mind.

GratefulForGold

(09/23/2003; 23:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109270)

otish mountain - I concur

Aragorn III, your words are poetry. Thank you.

GratefulForGold

(09/24/2003; 00:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109271)

Druid @ msg. #109266

Ask a simple question of a Druid and what do you get?

More than I can read (although I have read/stared at it) at this late hour (for me).

THANK YOU! My brain DID feel like I was tracking what you were saying. It's just too late for me to really think about what you've said and see if I understand. Must go to work tomorrow and it tries to tax my abiliies. So, until I can next re-visit this castle...goodnight and god (or diety) bless you!

Lady GFG

Waverider

(09/24/2003; 00:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109272)

Black Blade

Thanks for the encouragement. I installed a security system which I paid for but whoaa...it's a little TOO secure! I can't access a couple of internet sites which I subscribe to, so I shall continue working on the problem - it's time consuming though and my computer was down a good part of last week. Anyhow, thanks for the kudos (and thanks Boilermaker and others) - a little intuition with a sprinkling of luck appears to work well...no TA - just a "feel" for Spot - but it darn near gave me a heart attack yesterday! Cheers,
Waverider

BTW - it's GREAT to see a permanent link now to the DMR!

Liberty Head

(09/24/2003; 00:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109273)

Start Your Day With A Prayer

(loud with vigor)
(Short skirt and poms poms optional)

GIVE ME A JEEE.
G
GIVE ME AN OOOH.
O
GIVE ME AN ELL.
L
GIVE ME A DEEE.
D
What's that spell?
GOLD
WHAT"S THAT SPELL?
GOLD
WHAT"S THAT SPELL?
GOLD

goooOOOOLD GO!

When you hear the above on Fox TV, you will know that it is time to sell.

Best Wishes

DummyANI

(09/24/2003; 02:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109274)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Mitsui assumes a strong-bull trend continues to jump up at a new-high level against a strong Yen-trendDate: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...382.9

Comment: TOCOM gold was down 10 yen today, but Mitsui is diminishing their short-positions very rapidly. In the case of Feb. 2003, Mitsui increased his short-positions from 55,000 to 83,000 according to a gold-price-rise 380$ and over. In the recent gold-trend, Mitsui-strategy is that the higher the gold-price rises, the lesser his short-positions against Yen-rise.

This indicates that Mitsui assumes a strong-bull trend continues to jump up at a new-high level against a strong Yen-trend. This is very promising to a dollar-gold price.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

DummyANI

(09/24/2003; 02:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109275)

Im sorry

Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0

is right.

Operative

(09/24/2003; 06:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109276)

Rosh Hashanna

A couple of important dates are coming up for our Jewish friends and Israel. This weekend, beginning September 27 is Rosh Hashanna, the Jewish New Year. Ten days later on Ocotber 7 is Yom Kippur or "Day of Atonement" considered by most as thier most sacred day of the year. Both of these dates as well as the 10 days inbetween are important religious holidays, let us hope they may celebrate them in peace.

Operative

(09/24/2003; 06:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109277)

Hong Kong defends U.S. dollar peg

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/23/financial0105EDT0007.DTLSnip:

"Hong Kong defends U.S. dollar peg as speculators drive local currency to 6-year high

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said Wednesday it sold Hong Kong dollars worth $60 million to defend the local currency's peg to the U.S. dollar after speculators pushed its value to a six-year high.
The authority, which functions as the territory's de facto central bank, made the trade Tuesday morning to protect the link of HK$7.80 to the U.S. dollar, said spokeswoman Jasmin Fung.
The close ties between mainland China and the territory prompted foreign investors to snap up Hong Kong dollars, which unlike yuan are fully convertible
The buying pressure on Asian currencies came after the Group of Seven industrial nations over the weekend called for more flexible currency rates. Several regional currencies, including the Japanese yen, have since appreciated, sparking a plunge in the U.S. dollar. "

Operative

(09/24/2003; 06:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109278)

Global Markets: Dollar Weakens

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=3498279

Global Markets: Dollar Weakens
snip:
LONDON (Reuters) - Calls by leading industrial nations for flexibility in exchange rate policies continued to echo across financial markets on Wednesday, but with some signs that the fury of the past few days was running out of steam.
The dollar weakened against both the euro and Japanese yen, but was above its recent lows. European debt yields dropped after a two-day rally.
Following the comment, the dollar plunged against major currencies, Japanese shares sank on worries over exports and European bond prices leapt as many Asian investors moved out of U.S. assets."

Operative

(09/24/2003; 06:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109279)

Oil Surges After Surprise OPEC Cut

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3499402Oil Surges After Surprise OPEC Cut
Snip:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices surged on Wednesday after OPEC agreed a surprise cut in oil output, removing 900,000 barrels per day from world supplies ahead of peak winter demand.
U.S. light crude CLc1 was trading 88 cents firmer at $28.01 a barrel, while London benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 gained 98 cents to $26.50 after an initial jump of more than a dollar.

Mr Gresham

(09/24/2003; 09:26:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109280)

Thought for the Day

http://www.quotablequotes.net/search.asp?type=Author&searchdb=Wilde,%20Oscar"America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between." -- Oscar Wilde

Went looking for the source of a longtime phrase recurring to me in many situations: "Nothing succeeds like excess." And, yes, it was Oscar.

And we have seen more excess, at least in the economic stats department, than ever. Let's see for whom success rings its bell. Some few are aiming to cash in bigtime -- we'll see what their prize shall be. At the price of great loss for the slumbering many. And a few "small dogs" clinging to a golden lifeline.

"Then time will tell just who has fell, and who's been left behind, when you go your way and I go mine" -- Dylan

Mr Gresham

(09/24/2003; 09:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109281)

Richard Russell

"So my feeling is that subscribers waste a lot of time trying to time their purchases. The important thesis is that it's a bull market and your job is to "get with the program." If it's truly a primary bull market, whether you pay 375 for your gold coins or 395 is not going to be the critical factor. The critical factor is whether you buy any gold coins or gold stocks at all, and if you do, how many or how much do you buy?"

(09/24/2003; 10:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109282)

The March of Folly: To be Continued at an Economy Near You

Dollar Bill and All....

Dubai did not produce an accord. It did not even produce an accomodation. It ended as little more than a affirmation of the status quo. So much so, that the UK and Japan basically said that nothing happened; China dug in its heels, and the United States claimed that G7 had achieved some sort of understanding on flexible exchange rates. The forex markets initially signalled the U.S. would get its way, but the jury's still out on this one. The dollar cratered yesterday and gold made another solid move to the upside.

Yesterday, John Snow -- after everything that happened before, after and during Dubai...after the United States pushed hard for China and Japan to realease their currencies -- reiterated that the Bush administration sees 'no change in the strong dollar policy.' He said this the same day that he proclaimed that Dubai had produced 'a milestone change' in worldwide currency policies (which inferred flexible interest designed to drive the dollar lower). The Wall Street Journal yesterday printed this headline on its front page: U.S. Push for Weaker Dollar Rattles Markets Around Globe." In that same article, Japan's finance minister stated that there would be "no change in fundamental policy." That policy is not very complicated. It calls for Japan to intervene in the currency markets to drive down the yen for the upteenth time over the past year. With this amount of confusion among the 'players' -- all attending the same conference and signing off on the same 'statement' -- is it any wonder that the markets are asking questions about what really happened in Dubai.

Let me be among the first to state what appears from the outside to have happened at Dubai:

Nothing.

The March of Folly (Thanks C-Man) will continue at an economy near you.

In Japan, you will continue to export to the United States and add to your $500 billion in dollar reserves.

In China, you will continue to export without restriction to the United States, use your dollar reserves to cleverly buy influence the world over (note the Chinese financing of the EU GPI system -- opposed by the United States), and all the while continue to position yourself as the primary power in Asia.

In Europe you will continue to accomodate U.S. currency policy while pushing your own agenda toward a free and prosperous Europe -- free of the United States and prosperous enough to keep the euro in circulation.

In the United States, you will continue to import without restriction, build debts and deficits in a one-way march to a potential economic disaster.

We will do these things because there is not other course to be taken, nothing else that can be done. The cross-currents run in all sorts of indefinable directions, but one thing is clear: When we go down this time, we are all going down, and the inability of the top economies to come to a real understanding in the face of these multiple threats will prove to be our collective undoing.

In the end, we will get a new monetary agreement with the majesty of Bretton Woods, but it won't come until this system fails -- utterly and completely. The players for their own reasons will not let it happen any other way.

That's why I own gold. That's why you should own gold. It doesn't matter in which currency you denominate your savings and investments.

The March of Folly is here for the interim.

Final Note: Gold is a winner in either scenario -- the status quo or bumping China and Japan off their high horse. In the former situation, currency printing and debt in all the participating nations will create strong gold demand in all those economies as more and more of the citizenry grasp what's really happening. If we go the other way -- if the dollar begins a rapid decline -- gold will benefit from the old dollar - gold competition (as it did yesterday.) Timing and intervention will be an issue for short term paper players. Physical owners will come to fully understand this statement by Richard Duncan, "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences and Cures":

"The economic house of cards built with paper dollars has begun to wobble. Its fall will once again teach the world why gold -- not paper -- has been the preferred store of value for thousands of years."

(09/24/2003; 11:15:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109283)

@ MK (9/24/03; 10:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109282)

Sir,
Hear, hear!
Very well said!

Knallgold

(09/24/2003; 11:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109284)

ETF

If funds want to buy 1000t of Gold,and the ETF is allegedly backed 100% by Gold, it would zoom the price as if they would buy the physical outright.So why not allow funds to buy Gold in the firstplace? (Probably too easy)

And I never bought the argument of "people don't know how to buy Goldcoins so we have to create an instrument to facilitate it".There might be ignorance in the herd,but it would take an hour to get informed (and find this site for example)!Its like buying a TV.And,why should it be easier to buy an "Goldinstrument(ETF)"???

Zhisheng

(09/24/2003; 11:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109285)

Up into the close!

And closed near the top of the day: Dec futures at $388.40.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/24/2003; 12:04:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109286)

Hard assets, easy access!!!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 13:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109287)

ETFs and hall of fame nomination

Because I know we have just discussed ETFs based on gold possession and because I know we had discussed the same in the past and because I'm willing to bet that the subject will arise again....and because I too, was impressed with the clarity, simplicity and expertise with which Black Blade explained and evaluated these ETFs in Post 109259, I would like to nominate that post for the Hall.

There, how's that for a run-on sentence! Seventy words long!
Anyway, I thought it might be worth saving so if any agree with me and second the vote, I'll let Randy know.
Thanks and thanks too to Mr. Blade for distinguishing between apples and oranges.
Rich

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 14:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109288)

Today's markets

The stock market indexes are now closing at or near their lows for the day. The VIX is near it's daily high.
The dollar index is near it's low and gold closed up just $0.10 off it's high. Even silver was up a little.
Energy in all it's various forms was up big (thanks to OPEC). Now, if only cotton, coffee, corn and a few others could get untracted...oops, wrong forum... but a rising CRB may be an indicator of higher metal prices to come. Or a rising CRB may be an indirect force helping to raise those metals' prices or it may be both.

I often wish we had more imput from international posters and would like to encourage any and all non-American or expatriots to speak up. Gold and silver are global metals and CPMetals does provide (I believe) an international means of metals possession. What say you, world?
Rich

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/24/2003; 14:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109289)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 14:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109290)

Gold Spiking Higher in After Hours

Many analysts have been saying that should spot hit $388 an ounce then this would punch right on through resistance and the next level being anywhere from $400 to $418 an ounce. Well in after hours (currently) gold is rising and sits at $388.50 an ounce. Now we await to see if these analysts projections play out for the $400 or higher mark. OPEC has been our friend today and they essentially called everyones bluff on falling oil (make that energy) prices.

- Black Blade

Operative

(09/24/2003; 14:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109291)

@ R Powell, Second the Hall of Fame Request.

http://www.usda.gov/nass/aggraphs/cropmap.htmAnd link is for you. Thought you might enjoy taking a look at where all those crops are grown.

Really surprised that "they" are letting the markets tank so close to month/qtr end. Signs of impending fall for Dow/SP in October?? And proud of the gold/silver longs, hang'in tough they are!

Dollar looking like it needs a serious rest, perhaps some of the techie guys can update thier tea leaves, er...charts and give us a reading on what is next for the tired greenback.

Lets see how TOCOM handles the increased PM prices this evening. Could be a lot of fun.

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 14:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109292)

From The Mailbag

Snippit courtesy of the Daily Reckoning:

Pulling down the recovery's pants, we discover the disgusting truth. It is right there in the unemployment numbers. Not one of the 7 or 8 postwar recoveries failed to produce jobs, Dr. Kurt Richeb�cher tells us. But in the 20 months following the official end of the most recent recession, about 1 million jobs have been lost. In the 2nd quarter, 260,000 is the number given for jobs lost. Even this is a bit of a lie. It doesn't measure the number of people who've given up looking for work - a number said to be twice as large.

Plus, with his trousers down, we find an even bigger disappointment in Mr. Recovery. "The government adds every month some 30,000 - 50,000 imaginary workers to the job total," Richeb�cher tells us. "It is based on the assumption that in an economic recovery, people start their own businesses... Once a year, the statisticians reconcile their assumption with reality by a revision. When they did this in May of this year, 400,000 new jobs that have been reported earlier simply vanished. Such revisions, of course, take place outside the monthly reported job losses. Together, we presume, these statistical casuistries have reduced the reported job losses in the past two years by well over 100,000 per month."

Black Blade: Yesterday (or the day before?) I posted a report that the unemployment rate is actually over 9%. Well, if all worker stats are taken into account the actual U.S. unemployment is over 12.2% but then why quibble over a mere 3% when the BLS is simply lies about the data (their very own data no less). "Jobless Recovery" doesn't even come close to what is happening. Job losses are rising and there is a lot of concern among U.S. manufacturers. There are about 4,000 jobs leaving for foreign "outsourcing" every month. Yesterday Daimler-Chrysler announced that they were closing up to five auto manufacturing plants. That should have Detroit in a tizzy. Meanwhile if you have an IT or tech related education then go back to school and get another degree because you wasted a lot of time and money. Tech jobs (at least in the US) are going the way of the dinosaur. Several companies are firing their tech workers and sending the work to India and China (and a smattering of SE Asian countries). EDS will fire about 10% more of its workforce and instead of paying some US techies $70,000/year they will pay an Indian worker with an equivalent education about $6,500/year. Gee, wasn't EDS a Ross Perot company and he used to warn of a great "sucking sound" as jobs left for Mexico a few years ago when running for the US presidency? Hmmm�

Paper Avalanche

(09/24/2003; 15:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109293)

Thanks to the gang!

I vey much appreciate everyone's feedback and insight into the ETF question that I posed last night.

I resoundingly second the nomination of Black Blade's post regarding the ETF's.

PA

Great Albino Bat

(09/24/2003; 15:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109294)

R Powell asks: "what say you, world?"

Maybe the rest of the world is playing its cards close to the chest.

Never can tell who is reading here, you know. There may be interesting news further on.

The GAB

CoBra(too)

(09/24/2003; 15:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109295)

The Eagle has Stranded

Er, landed, by Ken Follet describing Ross Perot's noble rescue operation in the aftermath of the Ayatollah revolution.
... and where do we go from here, Phoenix?

- Aye, Arizona to retire the rest of US ... You too? - You bet ... cb2

PS: Not the gold eagle - though ...mhh

CoBra(too)

(09/24/2003; 16:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109296)

Guano, a fertilizer of Substance!

My favorite, BTW, even if it stinks.
A natural product of great colonies of bats ... never heard of albino bats, though they may be the equivalent of albino rats, infesting the halls of the White House and its white-washington sorroundings, also called George to"W"n in white cotton pickin' virgin(ian) country.

Guess, US ha(ve)s to come back to da steenkin' guano of the da great white bat to unnerstan' da message of the clean, though totally black an' white spinning machine!

... and even if my plants love guano - I love gold!

Gold - god's human(oid) fertilizer of civil(ization)ty?

What do I know? Do you - cb2?

Boilermaker

(09/24/2003; 16:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109297)

OPEC Cartel

OPEC is often crticized for "controlling" the supply and price of oil. Thank God someone's doing it. If not, we (the US) would have virtually no oil to produce. It's been my rant for several years that we need $50/bbl oil and $10/mcf gas prices to stimulate domestic production, curtail consumption and provide incentive for alternative sources. Cheap oil has pushed our country into the ME quagmire to keep it flowing.

No one wants to pay more for the stuff that has become an absolute necessity for everyday life but we have to realize that each incremental barrel costs more to find and produce. OPEC and the the ME is what amounts to the "Central Bank" of oil. OPEC is their Washington Agreement. Oil and gold, gold and oil. Two very difficult commodities to find and extract. One is not consumed, one is not. OPEC needs to replace their oil wealth with another form of wealth. Wisely, some of them have chosen gold.

Another and FOA saw the linkage and explained it to us. Now that gold is in a new bull market don't be surprised if oil follows it. Quid pro quo.

In the interest of full disclosure I produce 250 bbls/yr from my 53 year-old well and have an interest in three others. If asked to join OPEC I would do so in a heartbeat, even host a meeting here at the farm.

Boilermaker

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 16:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109298)

POG never sleeps

POG now up $2.20 from the Comex close with both the assess and Sydney open for business.

It has been fun watching the fight from 330 to 390. If we close above the pyschological 400 number, will the next 100 dollar climb from 400 to 500 be any easier than 300 to 400 was? I don't know but sense that the 400 level will be noticed, thought about and talked about (even by those who haven't a clue but will be expected to know) and then, with a little speculative encouragement or some serious short covering, that 400 to 500 climb may not take nearly as much time as 300 to 400 did.

I'm still of the opinion that there won't be any spectacular derivatives meltdown (as was predicted at the 354 level or at the $20.00/share price of JPM). However, if there are any unhedged shorts and there probably are some, there comes a time when thoughts of profit turn into drastic measures of financial survival. They will have to stop the bleeding. Massive short covering, if it happens, will be a sight to behold. I had thought the extraordinary long speculative positions would have been broken by now. After that first rapid runup from 330 to about 390, POG retracted almost back to 320. Did that flush out ALL the weak players? Has this last climb been hard enough and gradual enough so that the longs are now strong hands? I don't know but I am certainly enjoying the game. I hope we all are!
This isn't your father's gold market, anymore.

Goldendome

(09/24/2003; 17:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109299)

From the Seattle Times Newspaper

Snippet:

The Bay Area remains a drag on California due to the loss of high-tech jobs and incomes during the past three years. The Bay Area's three principal metro areas � San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose � have lost 346,000 jobs from the peak in December 2000 to last month.

....My question is this: Who in blazes is buying all the expensive housing? And with what?

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 17:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109300)

Operative

Thanks for the site and thanks for the second to my nomination for Hall of Fame consideration. Thanks also to Paper Avalanche. I follow the weekly and monthly usda reports very closely. May I give you a link in return, fgtcoop.com. Those of us who follow these other commodity markets know what a true enigma gold and silver can be, yes?

From a suspect memory I believe nomination takes three seconds. We now have two.

I sense that the POG can not rise much more without doing so with some extraordinary spikes from preordered buy orders and short covering. And then, maybe, some wild ups and downs. Just a feeling, probably a reaction to the COT numbers that we've been watching. What great fun!
Rich

Federal_Reserves

(09/24/2003; 18:15:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109301)

Credit/Mortgage Bubble

People talk about asset bubbles, but they have it all wrong. We don't have asset bubbles, we have credit bubbles. Credit is the key. Its the underlying framework to the skyscapper valuations.

Once credit expansion starts to fall, you can see the economy start to snap, crackle, and pop. Business loans have been falling for months, now home loans are starting in now.

Decline in credit expansion pushes the money supply growth lower & lower and can bring on contraction.

We are the verge of collapse. The Fed must be sh*tting bricks today, they came out today in force to talk about how good things were going and the stock market fell like a brick!

Arcticfox

(09/24/2003; 18:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109302)

This is interesting...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmrumour....
I'll now take you down one of the side streets in the oil arena. It has been said that Saddam Hussein lied about having weapons of mass destruction to appear more powerful than he really was and also lied about his oil reserves to appear wealthier than he really was. There are rumors that Iraq does not have the oil reserves that they claimed and the Bush administration is scrambling to secure long term oil contracts to make up for what we will not get out of Iraq.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 18:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109303)

Federal Reserves

I'll agree with what you just said and add that even the timing is exquisite.
A question, please. Other than the obvious direct links like copper demand and the building industry, what do you see for commodities (CRB) in relation to falling stock prices? Can the stocks tank while the CRB soars?
Also, are falling stock prices likely to further the dollar's decline? I believe a falling dollar hurts equity prices (even though it helps exports) but is the reverse of falling equity prices = lower dollar also true?

A fellow named Flannagan has been trying to sell a raging commodity bull based on long term (30, 60 year) cycles. I'm finding many fundamental reason that could explain large long term higher prices in many commodities. There are even now rumors of an orange tree disease- "citrus sudden death"- in South America. I thought nothing could help OJ prices with umpteen million tons of the stuff in storage but... Anyway, this guy is also calling (and has been for well over a year) for fortune making moves in gold and silver.
Any thoughts over any time period, thanks
Rich

Dollar Bill

(09/24/2003; 18:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109304)

*>*............+

Sir R. Powell, I support your motion.
To be honest, I am still in the learning mode on the subject and dont have your insight on it. But I trust your judgement.

Dollar Bill

(09/24/2003; 19:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109305)

*>*.........+

Duke M. Kosares, So much for my idea that I might foresee part of your commentary in advance ! Not a chance.
That post of yours is such a terrific high level view.
You warrent the Duke title. At this table you are a standout.

Is there a post about the euro GPI? Explaining it?
It is a must know subject I see.

TownCrier

(09/24/2003; 19:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109306)

Done.

Who will find it first?

R.

R Powell

(09/24/2003; 19:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109307)

Hall of Fame nomination

Calling for TownCrier....

In post 109287 I nominated Black Blade's excellent summary of gold ETFs for the Hall of Fame. Since then we've seen seconds from Operative (109291), Paper Avalanche (109293) and now Dollar Bill (109304). Thanks
Have we properly met the requirements for admission for Mr. Blade?

Under the last new moon I had thought to sacrifice a plump Rhode Island Red for gold price foretelling but, on the way to the sacraficial site, the chicken told me that all fundamental and technical analysis aside, the recent POG has been all directly due to Black Blade's daily reports and nothing else. I thanked the Red and returned him to his roost. Now, in light of this revelation I certainly hope that we can honor BB in the hall for this fine post and all his ongoing efforts.
Rich

Liberty Head

(09/24/2003; 19:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109308)

The Gold Cheer - Rah

I don't know if cheering qualifies as "discussion", but I must be chaneling the spirit of a dead cheerleader today.
Besides, today's performance is worthy of a cheer or two,
don't you think?

GO
GO GO
GO
GO Precious Metals

GO
GO GO
GO
GO Precious Metals
--------------

Oh well! It doesn't seem to do any harm and it's more fun than TA.
I appologize if my exhuberance is irrational. :-)

Best Wishes

Mr. Bill

(09/24/2003; 20:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109309)

@CoBra(too) (9/24/03; 16:08:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 109296)

Sounds like you are running on the byproducts of fermentation. Was it a very good year?

Cavan Man

(09/24/2003; 20:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109310)

Dollar Bill

MK's reference is to Chinese investment in a global positioning system sponsored by the Euro zone. This system is a direct competitor to a comparable US initiative. The report was found in the FT (last week's issues). Coincidentally, I read the article while in Coloroado and thought of stopping by MK's favorite bookstore while there.

MK has described the global situation perfectly in his "March of Folly" post.

Druid

(09/24/2003; 20:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109311)

IS THE DOLLAR "TOAST"?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallenwein092403pv.html"Yes.

The only remaining question is: how dark would you like it?

The Europeans would like it to be a light, golden crisp. The more fanatical of our Arab and Muslim friends probably want it to be incinerated. The Chinese would likely prefer it pretty dark, but with visible, charred remains, so they can still show it off - like a trophy.

At the recent G 7 conference in Dubai, some pretty amazing statements were made by our world leaders. Statements that, to those unfamiliar with :'euro vs dollar' logic, most likely sound rather innocuous. But to those who understand this new paradigm of international monetary politics, these statements confirm how far the world has already progressed toward a final transition from the current (past?) dollar reserve system to something entirely new."

Druid: Pretty interesting perspective.

Druid

(09/24/2003; 20:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109312)

Sweden Votes No: One More Chance For The Euro-Enthusiasts To Get It Right?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp
Earlier this month, Sweden voted a decisive 56-42 per cent "No" in the referendum on whether to embrace the euro. Already the conventional wisdom making the rounds is that the rejection of the single currency by the Swedes has dissipated hopes of creating momentum for the European Union's remaining non-euro members � the UK and Denmark � to join. Yet the same day of this alleged vote of no-confidence in the European project, Estonia voted overwhelmingly in favour of joining the European Union.

How, then, to reconcile these events? Indeed, how far should one regard an embrace of the single currency project in its current incarnation as synonymous with the EU? More significantly from the point of view of the euro's future viability, will Sweden's rejection finally force renewed focus on reforms and budget rules to which all member states can adhere (and thereby ensure that the European Monetary Union becomes both more attractive and viable in the future)?

Druid: Man, I'm certainly glad that I'm not in the prediction business, just way to much uncertainty for this bug.

Druid

(09/24/2003; 20:40:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109313)

"Let it Rip"

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSeptember 17 � Bloomberg: Paul McCulley, managing director of Pacific Investment Management Co.: �The Fed is supposed to go for maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates. The glaring goal that needs to be met is maximum employment. And there's no reason that the Fed can't go for it in the context of those moderate long-term rates, and the downside risk to inflation from a starting point of price stability. �Until you get job creation, not a jobless recovery, then the Fed has a mandate to keep the foot on the accelerator, keep money growth strong and short-term interest rates low. So I think it's an absolutely delightful template for the Fed to let it rip for a bit.�"

Inflationism is such a slippery, slimy slope. After all, it was not all too many weeks ago that The Inflationists were invoking The Evil of Deflation as grounds for the Fed and global central bankers to venture only further into the uncharted muddy waters of ultra-easy international money and Credit. With the case for global deflation today decidedly more difficult to contrive, we are now subject to the seductive nonsense that inflation is, as well, the magic elixir for a bout of stubborn U.S. unemployment.

Yet, overwhelmingly, today's persistent American joblessness is a structural issue related to a grossly imbalanced economy (and Credit system) and the hollowing of our nation's manufacturing base. And these separate but related deep structural distortions are categorically the consequences of years of Credit and speculative excess. There is simply no way for today's deranged Credit system to evenly spread liquidity throughout the economy. Until the next cycle, it remains a safe bet to assume that liquidity will love playing inflating assets markets, while having minimal attraction to goods-producing profits. These dynamics have become so deeply ingrained. Financial institutions, instruments, mechanisms and market psychology have evolved that perpetuate asset Bubbles at the expense of the real economy.

Yes, we can nowadays witness Credit inflation boosting the income of real estate agents, attorneys, insurance salesmen, financial operators, building contractors, defense contractors, and medical professionals. But there are fewer jobs every month for the factory worker. And with the cost of doing business in the U.S. inflating by the month, our manufactures become only less competitive globally. How, again, is greater Fed-induced Credit excess to become the solution to our deepening economic and financial ills?

Pondering Mr. McCulley's "it's an absolutely delightful template for the Fed to Let It Rip," I am reminded of Dr. Richebacher's prescient warning years ago that an environment of placid consumer prices has the potential to nurture the most conducive conditions for runaway financial Bubbles. Well, we continue to watch in utter amazement as this dynamic plays out in historic dimensions.

Druid: McCulley, a goldbugs best friend.

TownCrier

(09/24/2003; 21:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109314)

R Powell...

RE: your msg# 109307

Please see my 109306.

Like something out of 'Fistful of Dollars'.

Yep. That fast.

R.

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 21:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109315)

POG Action � From The Front Lines?

Looks like the action in gold is getting quite heated tonight. Having just arrived back from another night of masochism (at the gym ya know), I checked my email and a friend who has some uncanny insight on trading action tells me that the big rumor is that Morgan Stanley and another major player (JP Morgan is a primary suspect) are having a tough time trying to turn back the tide in the after hours gold market without much success. No one knows for sure but another rumor is that a major player (a foreign player) has taken the opposing field and is looking high and low for a large amount of � get this � physical gold. Something is afoot and it appears to be a major move is in the works.

Now this is just a rumor and I am trying to find some collaborating sources to confirm this but the movement in gold in the last few days suggests more is at work than meets the eye or what some gold analysts have been saying. One explanation is that it could be one well-heeled Asian investor or a consortium of Asian investors, and another is that it could be another banker or investment house taking a huge position. This could be the first quarter of the "Super Bowl" in the fight over the price of gold. I haven't had much luck tracking down any real confirmation (yet) but will keep my eyes wide open and an ear to the ground on this one. As a side thought here, if JP Morgan truly is in a fight to push gold prices back down, it may be due to some large derivative positions that they are rumored to still be locked into.

Anyway it is shaping up to be an ugly fight with the POG bouncing around a lot in the last several minutes � two powerful teams are going "head to head". I wouldn't be surprised if some Middle Eastern players were jumping in as well since today's OPEC decision to slash oil production has really stirred things up in the equities markets and a lot of ME money is tied up in western markets and many of these players are none too happy with the US and Euroland right now. Just look at the Nikkei dropping hard again tonight, this could be a precursor of things to come in Euroland and NY in the next trading session (equities). No wonder George Soros said he was "going for the gold" so to speak. Safety is the name of the game now and that means a new "gold rush" could be under way.

- Black Blade

BTW, thanks for the HOF nomination guys. The ETF question is a burning issue of late and is the talk of the Denver Gold Conference this week too. Cheers and "Golden Dreams".

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 22:25:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109316)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
What is Money?

Snippit:

We have transitioned from exporting capital to exporting all of our jobs; first the manufacturing jobs went offshore and now we are very actively sending our service sector jobs overseas. According to Mr. Kurt Richebacher, "The idea of an economic recovery with such a huge trade imbalance is utterly ridiculous." He goes on to say, "There is no foundation for recovery, which is made impossible by a huge trade deficit, balance sheet destruction, over-emphasis of the financial speculation, poor capital equipment investment, and monstrous imbalances." The dollar must go lower!

One of the big political problems is that we owe foreigners a ton of U.S. Treasury debt. We are now telling them that we will pay our debts, but with dollars that are not worth as much. The world is openly protesting the U.S. dollar as reserve currency for the entire globe. The euro was created as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, and its time is quickly approaching.

I started this section with the question, "What is money?" Now I ask you, what is the best kind of money? Is it Mexican Pesos, Swiss Francs, U.S. Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Gold, Euros, Yen, Yuan�or WHAT? Since I'm out of time and I just happen to be looking at the 24-hour Kitco Gold Chart, I will say that my favorite money is good old gold. It's tough to print more into creation. Gold closed today at $387.00, but look at the happenings as gold opens in Australia. As I write, gold is trading at $389.20 and will open in Hong Kong in a few hours. Let's see if the Asian Tigers can push it over $400.

Black Blade: Definite agreement here. As I have been pounding the table for some time like an insane maniac � the current account, trade, and budget deficits are clearly unsustainable. The only way out and I mean the only way � is to "fire up the printing press" until it's smoking hard pumping out dollars like never before and to devalue the dollar faster than foreign governments can step in and intervene in the continuing "competitive currency devaluation" scheme (aka "Currency War"). BTW, Dr. Kurt Richebacher had a great piece on the phoney unemployment data in today's Daily Reckoning (maybe listed as yesterday's now), but wish I could find it and get permission to reprint it here. It spells out exactly the what the liars at the Dept. of Labor and BLS have been doing and puts egg on the faces of the long string of morons paraded before financial media talking about how unemployment is just a "lagging indicator" That is a bald faced lie of course because a full reading of the unemployment reports with data (weekly and monthly) show an entirely different picture that is touted by the CNBC carnival barkers.

Gandalf the White

(09/24/2003; 22:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109317)

WHOA !!! Stop jumping UP & down in the SAME PLACE, SPOT !

The COMEX Dec Cotract has broken the $390. level, BUT, there seems to be a LID for SPOT, right about there and the charts are GOING WILD !
Rest awhile SPOT and then BITE 'em !
<;-)

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 22:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109318)

Forecast: Recovery Hopes Are Too Rosy

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20030924/bs_nm/economy_usa_forecast_dc
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces at least another year of tepid growth despite a growing number of predictions that a stronger recovery is around the corner, according to a forecast released on Wednesday. The widely watched survey issued by the Anderson School at the University of California, Los Angeles said neither consumers nor businesses have the buying or investment power to drive the solid growth seen in typical economic recoveries. "There is nothing to make you think we will have this spurt of growth," said the report's author, UCLA economist Ed Leamer. "I just don't see it." Leamer said even though business investment is creeping back, consumers -- who have taken advantage of low interest rates to keep spending -- do not have much room left now to help spark stronger growth. Increased debt and higher debt servicing because of rising long-term interest rates are also likely to further drag down consumer spending, the report said. And tight budgets will keep a lid on spending at the state and local level and be a drag on the economy, Leamer said. "State and local is going to contribute negatively where normally it contributes about 0.4 percent to GDP growth," Leamer said. "This labor market is much worse than it has ever been in terms of post-recession outcome," Leamer said. "The job market is extremely unhealthy."

Black Blade: This guy is much too optimistic IMO. Still, the overall report is correct as I see it though his take on the unemployment data and inflation are just parroting the government spin. Note that higher energy costs will remain a major drag on the economy. I haven't revisited this issue in some time, however, it is a fact that every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. Though not discussed much these days, there is still an energy crisis with today's OPEC decision, very low oil inventories, and declining NatGas production, we will have no real economic recovery this year or next. In fact the demand side for NatGas has risen over 300 million mcf/year year on year even with falling industrial demand nearly every new home is heated with NatGas. Rising NG storage has come from high cost production already bought (mostly by domestic utilities) at high prices so don't expect much help from rising storage levels because lower spot prices will not be passed along to the consumer this winter. As a side note � Congress has proposed an additional 6 cents a gallon Federal tax on gasoline (just for your info). As if the consumer needed another tax now.

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 23:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109319)

Risky buying on margin surges again

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/2003-09-24-margin_x.htm
Snippit:

Some investors are so confident that stocks will continue to rally, they are literally betting their portfolios and buying stocks on margin. Margin is using borrowed money to buy stocks and using other stock as collateral on the loan. Currently, investors are on a margin binge that is making some analysts worry we're seeing a return of late '90s-like speculation. Margin buying is:

� At record levels. Investors at firms regulated by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), the watchdog of the Nasdaq stock market and 5,300 brokers, borrowed $26 billion against their stock holdings in July, the latest available data. That tops the old record in March 2000.

� Growing rapidly. Margin borrowing at NASD-regulated firms is up 412% this year and 32% in July.

�Widespread. Total margin borrowing, which includes numbers reported by the New York Stock Exchange, hit $174.4 billion in July, a 25% increase from the end of 2002. That total is the highest in two years.

This is a big warning to some that greed is back. "Those people from 1999 to 2001 are creeping back into the sunlight again," says Michelle Clayman, managing partner of New Amsterdam Partners. "There are people thinking: 'Gee, maybe I can make back what I lost.' " Even the NASD has put out a warning to investors to be careful of margin borrowing. There's so much concern because historically, when margin balances soar, it's bad news for the market. The last time margin balances at NASD brokers topped $20 billion was March 2000 � just as the market was about to head into a brutal three-year slide.

Black Blade: Here we are again. Corporate insiders and professionals are bailing out as fast as they can and the Lemmings are taking a full force run right toward the cliff! So much for retirement, kiddies education, hopes and dreams. They just never learn do they? Over the last week I have been saying that the equities markets are looking "toppy" with valuations either in the stratosphere or simply nonexistent. I fear that this will become a very ugly issue in the next few weeks and certainly a campaign issue this year when it all blows up (again). As always, get prepared � get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses (or maybe better yet in very liquid PMs), accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start at storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Just think if all those unemployed took these simple precautions they could at least have some breathing room and still feed their families without going deeper into debt paying necessary expenses. I just shiver from what's coming next for these poor folk.

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 23:06:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109320)

Back to the bubble

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/24/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htm
Bearish sorts worry that investors didn't learn a thing from the crash.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - With the big-time rally stocks have seen this year pushing valuations back into the stratosphere, you have to wonder whether we learned anything at all from the busting of the late 90s bubble. You would think that seeing such a massive amount of wealth wiped off their books would have made investors cautious about the market -- deeply mistrustful, even -- but that hardly seems to have been the case. Flows into the mutual funds are steady, online trading has picked up and casual conversation is turning back to what stock did what. Even more distressingly, the stocks that have been doing the best are the sorts of highfliers that got investors into so much trouble last time around. Tech is leading the way, and for the tech stocks that are doing best, generating earnings is a future hope, not a present fact.

Black Blade: Yet another warning! If you invest be very picky � there will be big winners and a lot more big losers. Study, study, study! But first anchor your portfolios with hard assets like precious metals and have that "golden lifeboat" at the ready.

Black Blade

(09/24/2003; 23:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109321)

Survey: Most plan to work into 70s

http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/23/pf/saving/aarp.reut/index.htm
AARP finds many Americans to stay on the job longer due to financial considerations.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The image of American retirees lounging by the pool or playing golf may disappear as nearly three-quarters of older workers say they plan to work past the traditional retirement age, a study issued Tuesday said. A survey by AARP, formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons, shows 7 in 10 Americans plan to work past the once-typical retirement age of 65 and nearly half expect to work well into their 70s and even 80s.

Black Blade: What choice do they have? Quite a dire report worth reading. My parents worked in Yellowstone NP after retirement because they wanted too and they made many friends there over the years as it was one of several choices made by "Snowbirds" (a nickname for retirees traveling north in the summer and south in the winter). Now for most retirees it looks like many will work after retirement not because they want to or for socializing with others of their generation, but out of necessity for the sake of survival. Remember the dreams of the "Nuclear Family" with the bread winner going to work and mom staying at home to care for the home and be there for the children? Then the "Two Income Family" became the norm because one income no longer covered the costs of hearth and home. Now it's working past the traditional retirement age even to the point of having one foot in the grave just to get by. I suspect it will worsen much more by the time the last of the Baby Boomers hit retirement age. You can't afford to rely on Government promises and expectations of company pensions any longer. The only one you can trust and depend on is yourself. A small precious metals position will help balance out the ebb and flow of investment balance sheets. A larger position may mean the difference between being worked to death or actually having a day in the sun sipping pi--a coladas sitting on a beach watching the sunset (or goggling young beauties in thong bikinis if your as depraved as me - sorry about that). ;-)

Operative

(09/24/2003; 23:46:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109322)

Denim Maker Cone Mills Files for Bankruptcy

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAHLV7B0LD.html

Denim Maker Cone Mills Files for Bankruptcy
snip:
GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) - Cone Mills Corp., the world's largest maker of denim fabric, late Wednesday filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on the eve of its annual shareholders meeting.
The 112-year-old company makes the fabric for Levi's jeans, among others. It employs more than 3,000 people in five factories in North Carolina and South Carolina along with a joint venture in Mexic
Chief executive John L. Bakane has blamed a flood of Asian textile imports for the company's struggles.
"Unfortunately, the size and scope of this challenge shows no sign of diminishing, since appeals to Washington from textile industry leaders seem to have fallen on deaf ears, with U.S. trade policies continuing to unfairly favor these overseas competitors," Bakane said. "
end

Comment: More "bones" for the pile. Recovery around the corner? Dont bet on it.

Operative

(09/24/2003; 23:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109323)

Enron Sues Investment Banks

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA33COA0LD.html
Enron Sues Investment Banks

Snip:
"HOUSTON (AP) - Enron Corp. is suing some of its investment banks, accusing them of colluding with company executives in shady deals that made millions for both the insiders and the banks before Enron's collapse.
Defendants in the lawsuit filed late Wednesday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York include banking titans J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., two of Enron's largest creditors.
Neal Batson, the court-appointed bankruptcy examiner investigating Enron's collapse, said in his most recent report issued in July, citing numerous internal documents and e-mails, that the six parent banks named in Enron's lawsuit knew some of the financing deals they did with the company were intended to pump up profits.

Comment: Seems like on every turn you see JP Morgan being named in litigation. Strange how the same names keep appearing over and over isnt it?

DummyANI

(09/25/2003; 01:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109324)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Mitsui is different with COMEX commercial-shortsDate: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 25,972. minus1898�c...388.4

Comment: Mitsui is diminishing their short-positions very rapidly. In the case of Feb. 2003, Mitsui increased his net short-positions from 55,000 to 83,000 aggressively according to a gold-price-rise 380$ and over. In the recent gold-trend, Mitsui-strategy is that the higher the gold-price rises, the lesser his short-positions against Yen-rise. This is very different with COMEX commercial-shorts. Mitsui is a true professional-trader.

I think that Mitsui assumes a strong-bull trend continues to jump up to a novel-high level against a strong Yen-trend in a very near futures. This is very promising to a dollar-gold price.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

DummyANI

(09/25/2003; 02:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109325)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:- corrected

Im sorry, I used Yesterday data Im sorry, I used Yesterday data at DummyANI (9/25/03; 01:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109324) Message.

A right data is as follows.

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971. �c plus4164�c...388.4

Comment: Todays Mitsui is up his short-position. In the case of Feb. 2003, Mitsui increased his net short-positions from 55,000 to 83,000 aggressively according to a gold-price-rise 380$ and over. Sep. 17 is also up 30,000 contracts. In the case of Feb. 2003, Mitsui increased his net short-positions over 30,000 at a gold-price 333$ Dec.13,2002 and held its positions over Feb. 04. If the bull trend of this spring is again played, at least gold will be to jump up 55 dollars, that is 443 $/ounce.

I think that Mitsui assumes a strong-bull trend continues to jump up at a new-high level against a strong Yen-trend in a very near futures. This is very promising to a dollar-gold price.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 02:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109326)

GLOBAL MARKETS - OPEC output cut sinks shares, gold soars

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030924/markets_global_3.htmlSINGAPORE, Sept 25 (Reuters) - OPEC's decision to cut oil production sapped the dollar and Asian share markets, which were already reeling from the yen's strength, and sent gold to a fresh seven-year high on Thursday.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) removal of 900,000 barrels a day from supply limits for 10 members from November sparked concerns that higher energy costs would stifle an economic rebound in the U.S.

Japan's Nikkei average fell more than two percent to four-week lows...

Exporters have suffered since a G7 communique this weekend appeared to encourage Asia's top exporters to stop intervening to weaken their currencies to make their exports cheaper.

...Oil futures surged more than four percent in New York. Analysts expressed surprise over OPEC's decision to tighten the taps together instead of letting the world's top producer, Saudi Arabia, quietly trim production.

November crude jumped $1.11 in New York ... to $28.28 -- well above a four-month low of $26.65 set just last Friday.

Spot gold was at $388.75 an ounce after surging to $389.25, the highest since September 1996.

"Falling stocks are having a negative effect on the dollar," said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist with Investors Bank & Trust in Boston.
-------(see url for article)------

As a global asset gold is rare, immutable; while money is prolific, rotting from the head down.

How are YOU saving for the future? Choose wealth that can stand the test of time -- choose gold.

R.

Caradoc

(09/25/2003; 03:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109327)

$392?????

Looks like another "interesting" day coming up. Good fortune to all!

Caradoc

PS: Been spreading the word. Sister's first Eagles and MS64 St. Gaudens were locked in yesterday afternoon. Boss and best friend are afraid of physical but have been in my favorite mining stock for a whole week now ($13.57 to $14.82 in five market days. Less progress with brother: he'll be buying gold as soon as he can unload General Motors stock without losing anything. (You can't win them all.) Me? Just a few more MS64s and options on my favorite mining stock. Wouldn't normally have anything to do with options, but haven't yet received cash from unloading half my overpriced California real estate. Tell you one thing: if all option buyers were like me, no one on the other side of the counter would need to calculate the "minimum pain" point where the greatest number of options expire as worthless, because those options are going to be exercised.

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 03:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109328)

Who Are The Mystery Buyers?

I have looked all over and nothing yet except a rumor of a "very interested" buyer on the prowl for gold. Funds are diving in again as well.

The Response:

Japanese authorities threaten intervention but no sign of it yet.

Huge US Market index futures buying suggesting either a play on a rebound of yesterday's lows or some very frightened investment banks.

Data releases today:

Durable goods orders, used and new housing, and first time unemployment caims.

Meanwhile the US dollar is weaker and some expect that foreign investors are skittish enough to bail out of US bonds and stocks on any rally. So far spot Gold has punched above $391. It should get quite interesting to see how this plays out.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(09/25/2003; 03:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109329)

Caradoc PPS

"A L L P A P E R W I L L B U R N "

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 04:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109330)

ODJ Gold Driven By Dissatisfaction With Other Assets - Analyst

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4392831285901918272
Snippit:

WHO ARE THE COMMERCIAL SHORTS IN THE MARKET, AND CAN THEY DELIVER?

So who are the commercials with the "mammoth short positions who can sit with painful paper losses and deliver if they have to?" Friedberg's asked.

"We speculate that many of the so-called commercials, designated by the exchange as such, may be commercials, but are not natural selling hedgers, and cannot deliver the gold that they have contracted to sell."

With a rising market, "the pressure is on the shorts, and analysis of open interest readings must be revamped for this particular situation," it said.

"The 'commercial shorts' may very well be speculators who will need to cover one day and who do not have the advantage of being able to sit through substantial price movements against them," Friedberg's predicted.

"We've tightened up our stop to $370 per ounce, because if our theory is wrong, a liquidation would be powerful given the overwhelming size of the open interest," it said. "In the meantime, the market is poised to take out the highs and sprint past the $400-per-ounce level."

Black Blade: Now if the shorts are forced to make good it's going to be very "interesting".

seeker

(09/25/2003; 04:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109331)

CHINA NEWS IS VERY BULLISH

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htmChina's gold rush

The introduction of individual traders in the gold market will, according to gold experts and officials:

-- invigorate flagging consumption;

-- slash the foreign trade surplus;

-- trim conspicuous foreign exchange reserves;

-- ease international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October.

Prices of gold jewellery in Shanghai and other major Chinese cities increased by 2 to 3 yuan (24-36 US cents) per gram this month.

The implications are staggering --- seeker

silvercollector

(09/25/2003; 04:34:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109332)

Red Alert !!

The Feb. 5 pre-Iraq war high (spot) of $388 (& change) has been broken.

Spot at this moment is $391.90.

Cavan Man

(09/25/2003; 05:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109333)

A clear thinker should as WHY?

From the BBC TODAYNo WMD in Iraq, source claims
No weapons of mass destruction have been found in Iraq by the group looking for them, according to a Bush administration source who has spoken to the BBC.
This will be the conclusion of the Iraq Survey Group's interim report, the source told the presenter of BBC television's Daily Politics show, Andrew Neil.

Downing Street branded the story "speculation about an unfinished draft of an interim report".

Mr Neil said the draft report - which the source said is due to be published next month - concludes that it is highly unlikely that weapons of mass destruction were shipped out of the country to places like Syria before the US-led war on Iraq.

The bottom line is that the team has found no weapons of mass destruction
Andrew Neil

It will also say that Saddam Hussein mounted a huge programme to deceive and hinder the work of United Nations weapons inspectors, he said.

Mr Neil said that according to the source, the report will say its inspectors have not even unearthed "minute amounts of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons material".

They have also not uncovered any laboratories involved in deploying weapons of mass destruction and no delivery systems for the weapons.
CM comment: THE SCARY PART IS THE FREE PASS THE US ADMINISTRATION HAS ENJOYED.

Sundeck

(09/25/2003; 05:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109334)

Gold Shorts

Dummy ANI et al.

Who in their right mind would be increasing short positions at the present time?

Perhaps agents for those who want an "orderly" rise in the POG and who stand to lose none of their own i.e. those who are indemnified by public money, tacitly promised, covertly.

The large Japanese shorts have puzzled me for a long time...

Don't understand???

:-(

Clink!

(09/25/2003; 06:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109335)

Putting two and two together

Let's see. On the one hand we have a significant rise in the POG with rumors of a massive 'stealth' buyer - Bill Murphy is citing a player wanting $4.6B of physical. On the other hand, we have the ETF which seems to be being launched (finally) with almost indecent haste. I seem to remember last year the WGC said that that the ETF would suck up 500 tonnes a year.
Could there be a connection ? Are they topping up the vault prior to opening the fund ?

C!

cockerel1

(09/25/2003; 07:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109336)

Investing in Gold and Silver!

As yet, there are no provisions for holding "Real Money" within Registered Plans.
The total monies in these plans must be staggering and the equivalent "applicable taxes" could represent a huge sudden windfall to the government.

Stupid Question:Could this be one answer to tackling the enormous debt that is being incurred, or am I off base? (I have always thought that these huge supply of funds would eventually "burn a hole" in government pockets)

DummyANI

(09/25/2003; 07:45:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109337)

@Sundeck (9/25/03; 05:42:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 109334

Mitsui knows somethingI imagine that Mutsui can get a correct insider information from the notorious Gold Cartel, and if Mutsui wants to gain more profit from his gold-trade, he must first sell gold, because in a normal trade a big player is a small number, and a small traders is a very huge numbers. So that the big-players can easily cartel a short-group, and sell, sell, more sell strategy can defeat a long-group.

In a normal case, a big player can win, and a small will lose. Because a total amount of funds determines a money-war.

I trace on Mitsui-trading on everyday. From Jan. 27 to Feb. 7, 2003, I gained very interesting data.
Mitsui net-short positions on TOCOM
Jan.27 55,373
Jan.28 52975
Jan.29 54160
Jan.30 56583
Jan.31 59851
Feb.03 69850
Feb.04 83295
Feb.05 77511 This year top 1489yen/gram
Feb.06 71615
Feb.07 66554

What happened ? Was this an accidental positions, that is net 83,295 contracts at Feb.04 ?
No, I imagine that Mitsui correctly knew that COMEX gold exactly go down at Feb. 05, so Mitsui aggressively piled-up his short-positions very precisely.

At present, it is evident that a new very big player is coming into this gold-war as a long-side player. Perhaps, Mitsui knows who he is, so Mitsui is very cautious to participate into a short-side.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

erayboy

(09/25/2003; 07:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109338)

Essay Contest Question

When will the winners be posted?

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 08:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109339)

Morning thoughts

DummyANI: Thanks for the Mitsui reports, gold price discovery is a global affair so foreign exchanges must be monitored closely. Is Mitsui and agent for a great number of clients? Often, the news will report large buying or selling for someone- say Refco- and people will wonder about Refco's motives or opinion. In reality, while Refco does trade some managed accounts, the vast majority of their buying and selling is strictly the filling of customer orders. In these cases Refco couldn't care less about the price movements of the underlying commodities. Refco's motive is simply to collect commissions. Is Mitsui such an agent as Sundeck has suggested?

Sundeck: You mentioned that large short Japanese positions in gold have you puzzled. I would suggest that for every long position there has to be a short. You can not buy if no one will sell and vice-versa. This is the basis of my disagreement with Butler's complaint that there is more silver currently sold on Comex than exists in Comex. Would Butler have the exchange prohibit any new buying? "Sorry, Rich, no one can buy any silver because there isn't enough." The market's function is to balance the forces of buying and selling through price discovery. Simply put, more buying pressure should result in a higher price until the two forces are again balanced. Any increase in delivery calls will tighten the already low available supply and drive prices higher. Supply and demand. However, the total amount sold must/does always equal the total amount bought. Obviously, the sellers think the commodity is overvalued. Although hard to believe, not everyone thinks of gold and silver as precious!

Clink: ETFs buying to load up the warehouses in preparation for upcoming stock offerings? This sounds perfectly plausible to me, and they'll have to buy more as they sell more shares, yes? If there are restriction against leasing or otherwise encumbering with liens, then, I would think, this will really take physical off the market. Maybe not as secure as in the hands of private citizens, but still gold removed from the available pile. Wonderful! Thanks guys.
Rich

DummyANI

(09/25/2003; 08:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109340)

@R Powell (9/25/03; 08:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 109339)

I�fm sorry, I don�ft know whether Mitsui is such an agent or not.

I�fm an independent small investor

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 08:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109341)

TownCrier

Just read your 109314. Wow! Before I even tallied the seconds, that was fast.

Jing Zu

(09/25/2003; 08:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109342)

COMEX Gold Opens Above 7-Year High

http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20030925/hle_bus-n25228383.htmlNEW YORK (Reuters) - COMEX benchmark December gold futures surged $4.10 at the open Thursday to $392.50 an ounce, surpassing a seven-year high.

The previous high at $391.00 on a continuing contract basis was exceeded overnight, when December gold scaled a peak of $393.70. At 0833 EDT, gold was $4.00 higher at $392.40.

Gold rallied on a surprise output cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, effective Nov 1.

Analysts said higher oil prices could curtail the global economic recovery. Traders said gold investors were buying gold as an inflation hedge as well as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions.

Jing Zu> Looks like they have their reasons that they believe, or at least want you to believe. I am happy that I purchased more of the yellow substance yesterday morning..

Thank you CPM! Thank you for being here!

Jing Zu

(09/25/2003; 08:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109343)

Here we go again.....

Up Up Up! Where it stops only some people know....

What a nice beautiful day here in South Carolina....

Cool, Crisp, Clean air.. Sun Shining and Gold Shining....

Jing Zu

(09/25/2003; 08:49:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109344)

Levi Strauss to Close N. American Plants

http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20030925/hle_bus-wen07497.htmlThursday September 25, 10:35 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jeans maker Levi Strauss & Co. said on Thursday it would close its remaining North America manufacturing and finishing plants, leaving nearly 2,000 employees out of work.

The job cuts and plant closures comes as the 150-year-old San-Francisco-based company battles growing competition in a crowded jeanswear and apparel market.

Jing Zu> More and More of the work force in this country are loosing......Interesting times wouldn't you say?

DummyANI

(09/25/2003; 09:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109345)

@R Powell (9/25/03; 08:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 109339)

I�fm sorry, I don�ft know whether Mitsui is such an agent or not.

But I think that Mitsui mainly can trade in his own account for himself.

Because today�fs total trading volume is 111,667 contracts, and Mitsui short was 52,583, and Mitsui long was 48,419. This indicates that nearly half positions are transacted only by Mitsui for everyday.

If Mitsui�fs trade is done mainly by commission�fs fee, a trading price is very volatile, and Mitsui�fs order will be running from limit-up to limit-down at everyday

1340cc

(09/25/2003; 09:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109346)

Calgery Conference

Got back from Ireland and didn't see hid nor hair of those little guys dressed in green and their pots of Gold! Darn....

Just wondering who from this forum will be in Calgery for the metlas Conference next week and would like to ask you to put your forum handle on your name tag. I would like to put a face to the wonderfyl informatino you all share with us rookies here. And thank you in person.

Socrates964

(09/25/2003; 09:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109347)

Gold Essay

If the forum will indulge me, the key test that I stipulated in my essay: a 2% close over the .786 Fib level has now been met. Hence, my NO conclusion is now a YES

We are now in a primary gold bull market! Official!

on a short-term technical view, gold looks like it may top around $405 and come back to support around $380. At the same time, we are now in a bull market and a number of TA analysts whose judgement I respect have pointed out that gold could have a very fast move from $400ish to $500ish.

From a trading perspective, this is a tough call - although a combination of inertia and patience is likely to be richly rewarded.

cockerel1

(09/25/2003; 09:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109348)

Democracy!

Stumbled across this interesting quote:

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess of the public treasury. From that time on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the results that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage.

--Sir Alex Fraser Tytler (1742-1813) Scottish jurist and historian

My humble interpretation and observation of the parts of the cycle I personnally have lived through.

Here in the "Great White North" of Canada, we seem to be in the transition from apathy to dependency.
Dependency has been imposed on the populace by Government policy, induced, IMO, by the continuous "want" created by the selfish "baby-boomers" (I am one). Government provided, by initiating huge Social programs that created complacency among the people, and deprived them of the ability to think and fend for themselves. Apathy, of course, was the next logical step. Government, upon seeing this, spent money (read: created debt), to ensure the people"s dependency on their policies. The "millstone" of the huge debts,together with the diminishing personal wealth IMO, is the "bondage" that we must endure.

Well, if the profound statement holds true to form, the next one hundred and fourty years will be very interesting indeed!

Rimh

(09/25/2003; 10:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109349)

Calgary - 1340cc

See you there!

Lothar of the Hill People

(09/25/2003; 10:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109350)

News of the unexpected

Lothar is bemused.

A great albino carrier bat arrived this day with from the Hill People's investment adviser & broker--the Hill people deal with him because his firm is one of very few that deal in guano, and allow guano as well as PMs in one's self-directed 401K.

A few months past Lothar, with much argument and outright pleadings, prevailed upon this guano focused grey beard to add modest quantities of gold to Lothar's 401K.

The marvel is that in this latest communique, he now recommends that more great albino bat guano be exchanged for gold upon future POG pullbacks! And he, who had never considered PMs in the past, has added gold to his personal portfolio!

Such an omen as this must signify that we truly have entered a gold bull market.

I am Lothar of the Hill People

Fare ye well

CoBra(too)

(09/25/2003; 10:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109351)

Wow, Look at 'em Bugs run fer Cover ... Pathetic!

Seems to me the PTB are trying to pull "Another" reversal, a.k.a. February 2003, pre Iraq war stunt on POG.
Well, fine and good luck - though this time they may run into a brick wall of willing buyers. Maybe even the "Stalker", who was just now seen sharpening his scalpel for the final incision.

Well, can't have all those shorts coughing up bullion they don't have for tomorrow's execution of the Oct. parade. Too bad as the game is drawing to an end...

Got Gold? Uh, fer sure and will be buying da dips ... cb2

Clink!

(09/25/2003; 10:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109352)

@cb2

You might be right, but today is options expiry, so it may be shorter term. We shall see.
C!

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 10:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109353)

From Jing Zu's link // Kodak news

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jeans maker Levi Strauss & Co. said on Thursday it would close its remaining North America manufacturing and finishing plants, leaving nearly 2,000 employees out of work."

Another company relegated to the bone pile while I suspect Levi's will still be here but manufactured outside of the USA. I noticed this one as I'm from that generation that had to wear "dress" clothing from grade one through high school. I did attend college and was amazed to see most people in dungarees, Levis. I have been wearing them along with cheap sneakers ever since. I have one suit only for weddings and funerals. Dungaree's are fine for concrete work and everywhere else I go. Good bye American made Levis, we wore you well.

The peoples' stock picking television channel has been talking of a gold discussion segment upcoming but, as of yet, nothing but adds and stock news. Kodak cut dividends and announced it plans to move into digital as it believes the era of film cameras is drawing to a close. The POS was above 530 but has understandably dropped. Buying opportunity?

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 10:53:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109356)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- We have WINNERS !!!!!

We have numerous Fifth Birthday Anniversary ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS !

First, "Thank you all" for the fabulous response to the CONTEST ! BUT, let me advise you that the WHOLE Judging Committee has been sequestered for over FOUR DAYS in the entry review procedure !!! They have worked 24/7 on the ranking of all these great entries, and NOW having completed their task, are demanding a two-week paid vacation to the quiet backwoods of the GREAT Pacific Northwest ! I know that Sir MK will be issuing a statement as soon as he reads this annoouncement.

NOW -- the Winners listing ----
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!

The one ounce US GOLD EAGLE (with value NOW in excess of $390. !!! ) <;-) is: Sir Remarx

Two very close RUNNERS-UP" winners each winners of a Wilhelm II German 20 Mark GOLDPIECE are: Sir Usul and Sir phil288

Three also close Essay entries receive "Special Awards" of an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.
These three are: Sir Aurion; Sir R Powell; and Sir Smeagol

Two Honorable Mention commendations are also given to:
Sir Yukon; and Sir a nation of one
==
Will all of the prize WINNERS provide Lady Marie (via email at marie@usagold.com)their Real NAME, POSTING HANDLE, and mailing address in order to receive the PRECIOUS ! Thanks!!

Attached below is a copy of the Top Prize Winning Essay by Sir Remarx --- (and all the Contest Essays may be shortly found in the USAGOLD Forum "Hall of Fame")
===

Remarx (09/17/03; 22:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 108822)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

One may favor a capital based Keynesian, neo-classical or Austrian school economic model, or even a labor based socialist model, as the best way to organize commerce. One may lean politically toward a neo-liberal or neo-conservative perspective, lean much further to the left, prefer to remain outside the fray, or even feel that all politics is without hope. One may be a citizen of any nation on the planet.

Yet all must recognize the role of gold as a stable measure and store of wealth throughout the course of human history since its first monetary use thousands of years ago. It cannot be denied that the presence and distribution of gold has often been used as a foundation for restoring health to sickly economic systems whenever circumstances or human nature have allowed the value of currency to drift far enough from a meaningful base.

There is no doubt that we find ourselves in a global economy that is in such an unhealthy state today. Significantly different from difficult times in the past, however, the level of interrelatedness between nations and the number of people affected by failures in the system add up to an illness of epidemic proportions.

The 20th (American) century was a tumultuous period of global class and nation state warfare, and rapid growth of capital-intensive industrialization. Extremes in poverty, genocide, heroism and ingenuity were matched by the turbulence of the market and the peaks and valleys in the economy. In hindsight, the number of repeated attempts to loosen gold ties to currencies is remarkable during such a short period of time -- a frequency unmatched in history.

It is now the 21st (quite possibly not another American) century, and here we are again. The symptoms of our worldwide economic malady include:

- a massive trade imbalance; for the US, a staggering record current account deficit; for its trading partners, economies based on massive exports with no way to spend the wealth but to reinvest US dollars in US bonds and equities

- artificially, improperly valued currencies, particularly the undervalued yuan and the overvalued US Federal Reserve Note (FRN)

- a massive US government deficit and snowballing debt that may rival Third World nations within the decade

- a decrease in real value of the USD to less than a quarter since the final severance of all ties with gold only thirty odd years ago

- record increases in the money supply

- high unemployment in the US and Europe, weakening their roles as economic engines

This state of affairs is sufficient to drive the price of gold higher until collapse and/or remonitization occurs. But this tallies only a few of the weights on the balance in favor of gold. The supply of and demand for gold are significant factors that will have a force multiplier effect on the rise in price:

- reduced returns from mine production as the finite resource is extracted will ensure that the supply of gold is constantly diminishing with respect to growing populations.

- increased demand from acquisition of monetary gold by everyday citizens in China and the Muslim world (through the Islamic Gold Dinar)

- "overbooking" of physical gold through hedging and derivatives

The most intangible, but perhaps most important factor favoring the coming bull market is the increasing lack of faith in the capabilities and integrity of our leaders:

- US political responses to problems seem to be diversionary tactics such as spurious warmaking and unstimulating tax breaks; no real attempts at restoring manufacturing and trade balance are being made

- few tools remain to the Fed, and the control of interest rates is showing little positive effect

- a covert and unverifiable factor restraining the price of gold may be the intervention by the international banking system, perhaps in concert with attempts at hiding the true price of the rapidly diminishing crude oil stock that lubricates the world economic engine.

Although the US is displaying the most severe symptoms at present, no currency is safely isolated from its contagion. People around the world will increasingly turn to the only universal haven for their hard-earned savings as symptoms spread. Your current dollars may be nearly worthless in future years in comparison with the highly inflated future currency, but the value of your gold will remain relatively constant -- that is the straightforward, honest promise of gold.
====
PS: to Sir Erayboy, I have recommended that you be included on the next essay contest judging committee.
<;-)

Leigh

(09/25/2003; 10:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109357)

QUICK!!! Go to the Drudge Report!

You guys -- the Drudge Report has a GOLDEN-COLORED headline about the rise in the gold price!!

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 11:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109358)

Lady 1340cc -- a Question --

1340cc (9/25/03; 09:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 109346)
===
Did you also "KISS" a certain stone, while there ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 11:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109359)

Question for Sir Socrates964 !!

Socrates964 (9/25/03; 09:42:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 109347)
Gold Essay
===
Did that have to be a CLOSE above the Fib ?
Did we slip a little too much at the end ?
Can we wait until tomorrow ?
Thanks for the TA lessons !!
ALSO -- Please advise us of the NEXT HIGHER resistance level. $430. ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 11:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109360)

WOWSERS --- Look at the $10 paper avalance !!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1The PTB did it on light volume too.
Looks as if the are fighting for their lives !
Where are Sir Slingshot's armies when you need them ?
<;-)

Socrates964

(09/25/2003; 11:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109361)

Sir Gandalf

Everyone has their own way of doing TA. I take the London PM fix as it is a real market (where metal is traded) and the PM close occurs within the NY action.

The key event in establishing the transition from retracement to primary bull market is the break through the 78.6% level. The theory being that it then becomes very likely that the price goes to the next major Fib level at 127.2% of the major down move. It may move beyond this, to the 161.8% level, but a breach of the 78.6% level signals that the dyke has been breached.

Evidently, you need a secondary criterion to determine what constitutes a definitive breach of the 78.6% level. In general, we look for a close 1.5 to 2% above it - this is a purely arbitrary figure that we have arrived at by trial and error.

Since the 78.6% level comes in around 380.6, a PM fix above 388.2 confirms the successful breach of the 78.6% level - we got that this morning.

We can now say that there is an 80-90% chance that gold is in a primry bull market that will go to at least $460.

Paper Avalanche

(09/25/2003; 12:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109362)

POG Chart for Today - Text Book Cabal Again

As if we expected anything different, the old play book is still being used by the cabal. However, one must wonder how effective this startegy can continue to be when you realize that the spikes in the POG occured in Asia and London before the open of the Comex (if I remember the graphs and exchange hours correctly). This has not been the typical pattern over the past year or two. As best I remember the average trading day consisted of a steady price in Asia, then taken down a bit in London and finally slammed after lunch time if there was a buying surge in NY during normal Comex trading hours. Looks as if Asia is buying on the dips and will be more than happy to have the POG taken lower on the Comex by TPTB. Could be a whole new ball game.

I have a feeling that POG will be back above $390 within twelve hours.

I may be worng. I often am.

Paper Avalanche

Socrates964

(09/25/2003; 12:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109363)

Seems like POG was bombarded to limit losses on Comex shorts. In retrospect, therefore, the gold stocks behaved impeccably as lead indicators.

Seems to me that the Cabal is now in tactical retreat mode, rather like the end of WWI when the trench warfare system broke down.

Gold will do all kind of things in the very short term, but when all's said and done, there seems to be a gentlemen's agreement that POG will rise by $10-15 every 2-3 weeks. Assuming that this is the case, we should be in the $430-60 range by Xmas.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/25/2003; 12:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109364)

Your source for BULLION to build your financial base...

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Cavan Man

(09/25/2003; 12:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109365)

Here it is Lady Leigh

washingtonpost.com
Gold Hits 7-Year High, Looks to $400

Reuters
Thursday, September 25, 2003; 11:42 AM

By Veronica Brown

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold rose to its highest level in more than seven years on Thursday as fund buyers piled into the metal, inspired by a surprise decision from OPEC on Wednesday to cut oil output and a weaker dollar, which raised bullion's safe-haven appeal.

"The bulls have got the bit between their teeth and any news is good news -- it doesn't matter what it might be, it's good news," Societe Generale economist Stephen Briggs told Reuters.

By 1515GMT, spot gold closed at $390.40/391.10 per troy ounce after spiking to a high of $393.30 -- not seen since mid May 1996. That compared with $387.00/387.80 at the New York close on Wednesday.

Analysts signaled even more gains, after a period of consolidation, with prices over the psychologically significant $400 barrier looking increasingly likely.

"The technical chart looks very strong still -- so from that point of view we could see further speculative buying into gold. The next target is $401.00," said Ingrid Sternby of Barclays Capital.

Share prices dropped on concerns that higher oil prices could jeopardize an economic rebound in the United States, leading to a wave of gold short covering in Asian and European trading.

Further fuel was added to gold with the release of disappointing U.S. economic data. A surprise 0.9 percent drop in U.S. durable goods orders in August pressured industrial metal prices, traders said. Wall Street had expected orders to rise 0.6 percent.

MAGIC $400?

In other precious metals, silver was again fired up by gold, with the spot reference price fixed at a fresh 3-1/2 year peak at 531.75 cents an ounce.

The spot price was last quoted at $5.22/5.24, after touching a high of $5.35 earlier and compared with $5.26/5.28 late in New York on Wednesday.

Platinum moved up to $711.00/716.00 from $705.25/709.75, while palladium edged up to $216.00/220.00 from $215.00/220.00 previously.

Bullion has risen some 14 percent since July as the dollar has weakened making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while doubts over a recovery in the U.S. economy has lit up the precious metal on the radar screens of less traditional investors.

Traders said the oil supply news was supportive for gold in its use as a hedge against inflation.

Rising oil prices are generally seen as an early indicator of the inflation scourge, which lessens the value of traditional assets such a stocks and bonds.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided on Wednesday to remove 900,000 barrels a day from supply limits from November.

Briggs said however that the oil news was just an excuse for the market to go higher in its current bullish mode, with fundamental issues like weak physical and fabrication demand remaining in the background.

"How long this run will last, nobody can say. We're going to see a dramatic slide in physical demand for gold but in the short term it simply doesn't matter," he said.

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 12:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109366)

WGC on today's notable London fix

"The heightened interest in the gold market was illustrated by this morning's fix, which took almost half an hour, and in which the "trying price" moved down to $391.10/ounce, before working up to $391.90/ounce and finally settling at $391.85/ounce."

Further,

"With COMEX options due to expire today, and OTC options expiring tomorrow, the market has maintained its pace and the $390/ounce level was cleared in the early hours in Europe. Meanwhile the physical markets in the regional purchasing centres have retreated once more to the sidelines, a common occurrence when prices are high and volatile.

"Dealers are reporting that borrowing is appearing in the longer dates (two-years and further), with rates rising by 10-15 basis points."

Cavan Man

(09/25/2003; 13:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109368)

Shades of Another......

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein092503.htmlBuy physical gold. "Let the game come to you."

Cavan Man

(09/25/2003; 13:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109369)

Dear FOA

If in good health; Sir: you promised a return @$360.

Liberty Head

(09/25/2003; 13:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109372)

Re: cockerel1 msg #109348 Democracy

Thanks for posting the quote by Sir Alex Fraser Tytler.
Another quote about democracy that I favor, but can't remember the source is: "Democracy is when two wolves and a sheep vote on what to have for lunch".
There is not much recognition of the rights of an individual in a democracy.

Don't be too hard on the baby boomers. Socialism was well in place before we were born.
The baby boomers post date "The New Deal" and were not responsible for the removal of silver and gold backing of our currency.
We may not have created our current mess, however we do have the responsibilty to fix it.

Best Wishes

Clink!

(09/25/2003; 13:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109373)

@ alkahulik

With all due respect, I think you want the Yahoo! bulletin board for NEM for that sort of posting. If you have something more on topic, we would all like to read it.
C!

Clink!

(09/25/2003; 13:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109374)

The Grim Sweeper

of irrelevant posts has struck again - Thank You !!
C!

White Hills

(09/25/2003; 13:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109375)

any doubt?

It is pretty obvious that the POG is being manipulated at the Comex.I think there might be just a little panic behind the scenes the word is slowly getting out to the general public. I have begun to hear from people now asking me how to buy gold. O f course I tell them about USA Gold have steered 52 Oz their way in past month now people calling from Florida want to know about Gold. I have shot my mouth off for 5 years and finally somebody is listening. White Hills

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/25/2003; 13:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109377)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold tumbles on profit taking today but the trend remains intact. Newmont Mining CEO Wayne Murdy (an insider) on CNBC today states that he remains very optimistic on the price of gold. More physical demand is likely to emerge on the lower price as weak hands get shaken out. And Indian "Wedding Season" and "Festival Season" about to get underway.

a nation of one

(09/25/2003; 13:42:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109378)

my civic duty

I feel it is my civic duty to express the following. It is not hard to admit that mine was perhaps not the best entry. It is also easy to admit that Remarx's entry was of a very good quality. But I don't think that anyone who tried to answer the contest question --as you asked it-- can fail to appreciate that Remarx's entry did not answer the question that you asked. I wouldn't mind losing to someone who answered your question. But to lose to someone who didn't, that makes it difficult for me to take your contests seriously.

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 13:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109379)

Contest

Gandalf, Michael and all,
Thanks for the contest, the real winners were all who entered, it was fun (and educational) as usual.
Although gold is more precious, I may be the least disappointed of the silver winners. (;>)

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 13:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109380)

Gold Drops From 7 Year High - So What

Gold drops sharply today on profit taking as options expire but does that even matter now? Of course not - the US dollar is in "blow off" mode. The current account and budget deficits have the Fed pumping out a flood of dollars because Japan and China won't play ball. The pressure is now on the Fed after Treasury Sec. John Snow's humiliating grovelling in Asia and the inability to get his point across at the G7 conference. The "competitive currency devaluation" scheme continues as all currencies head for the dumpster. Meanwhile equities markets have suddenly started to tank again shearing the sheep once again. I suspect now that we will get through expiry this week we will be back to rally mode in short order.

BTW, Bob Pisani of CNBC is really pushing the planned World Gold Council ETF. He has been doing this for some time. Now what's up with that considering he used to disparage gold at any given opportunity in the prior two years? "Interesting Times" indeed!

- Black Blade

tyro

(09/25/2003; 14:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109381)

$200 Billion for Mortgages

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1204&e=8&u=/ap/20030923/ap_on_bi_ge/citigroup_mortgages&sid=95616121snip: Citigroup Launches Lower-Income Program
NEW YORK - Citigroup, the nation's largest financial institution, is launching a $200 billion program to help low- and moderate-income families buy homes.
The program, to be run by Citigroup's mortgage lending unit CitiMortgage, will include low down payment mortgages, reduced closing costs and help for people with bad credit histories, Citigroup said Monday.

tyro: With all the unemployment, wonder how low and moderate income families, including those with bad credit histories are going to make the payments�

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 14:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109382)

Trading ranges

Today's Dec. gold high as listed at our link to MRCI's quotes was $394.8 and the low was $385.5.
Trading range was $9.30

In silver, $5.395 and $5.21.
Tradin range was $0.185

This is not your father's metals market, anymore.

erayboy

(09/25/2003; 14:29:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109383)

To Black Blade - Re: Pisani on GOLD ETF

The fact of the matter is that the ETF is "paper" GOLD. No matter how well it is backed, it is still paper. Tberefore, by shifting the sheeple off onto paper GOLD, it lessens the possibility of their buying actuals, which would drive up the price by creating a shortage. The price, value, and demand for "paper" GOLD can be more easily manipulated than that of the actual bullion. This ETF becomes another mechanism to take money from the masses.

Furthermore, I believe this action will postpone the GOLD bull.

R Powell

(09/25/2003; 14:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109384)

Black Blade

In regards to Bob Pisani pushing gold ETFs, I wonder if there has ever been a planned stock IPO that he has not liked? Bob loves equities of all kinds, happy economic news and higher stock prices regardless of any and all other considerations. It's probably only a distasteful sense of duty that ever forces him to report any stock unfriendly news. Stocks backed by gold or moon rocks or someone's as yet undisclosed planned future profitmaking scheme,... hey, don't sweat the small details, smile and order some up! The television commercial sponsors make money from active commission-generating markets. He's a lot like the Friday night Guru Lou of Rukeyser, only his grin is not quite as large. I wonder what his bartender hears from him when the cameras are not around?
Rich

Federal_Reserves

(09/25/2003; 14:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109385)

Stock Market Correction Engaged

Last week I mentioned that it looked ready to start a nice corrective phase after options expired. May not get much of a rally for this month end.

The SnP just broke some key support.

The 10,20 day moving averages and other support including the 1010-1015 area on the charts. Could fall down to the 200DMA down around 960 in a flash.

If GOLD consolidates around this 400 level while this goes on it would be a very good sign for continued appreciation.

phil288

(09/25/2003; 14:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109386)

Essay contest

As a new poster, I am surprised and greatly honored to be awarded a runner-up prize in the recent essay contest; more importantly the "Sir" monacher is certainly interesting if a bit premature. Thank you to the wizzard and all his assistants, and especially thank you to MK and the castle posters who have been a great source of education to this three year lurker. I have apparently learned enough to now be authorized to preach what we all practice. The price behavior today was certainly interesting. Nobody said these markets were not manipulatable.

mikal

(09/25/2003; 14:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109387)

@a nation of one

I appreciate your insightful posts and I'm sure I'm not alone. Keep up the good work.

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 15:09:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109388)

7.8 earthquake rocks northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

Fire breaks out at oil refinery.

Will natural disasters press physical gold harder into service?

R.

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 15:14:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109389)

That is to say...

Will gold be pressed harder into service as meaningful savings as it becomes clearer that socialized national money is pressed harder into service as a balm for the localized wounds that Mother Nature delivers?

R.

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 15:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109390)

USAGS says quake was 8.0

Hurricanes here, quakes there... and in response the governments try to offer paper social security for everyone.

Choose gold if and when you see the writing on the wall.

R.

Operative

(09/25/2003; 15:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109391)

Watching the Loins

As the story goes there once was a ship's captain whose aid rushed up and informed the captain that there were 5 British ships approaching. The captain ordered his men to prepare for battle and told the aid to bring him his red colored jacket. Having won that engagement a few days later the aid rushes in again to inform the capatin that there are 10 enemy ships approaching. The captain once again orders his men to prepare for battle, and tells the aid to bring him his red jacket. The aid inquires why did the captian put on the red jacket before going into battle?
The captain replied,"in case I am wounded, I do not want the crew to panic, hence the red jacket." A few days later the aid informs the captain that 20 ships are approaching. The captain tells the crew to prepare for battle, and tells the aid to bring his brown colored britches.

A similar story is related in the bible. The prophet Daniel is called before the king to reveal the mysterious handwriting on the wall. Daniel proceeds to tell the king that he has been wieghed and found wanting and describes the terrible things that will soon happen to the king and his kingdom. It says that the king's knees began to shake and his 'loins were loosend".

I think when gold topped over 390.00 in the early morning hours last night that loins where loosened and brown pants where ordered. They beat gold down today, but gold will return to its bullish pattern soon enough. As for me, I have enjoyed the show, especially when taken in context with the above two stories. It is good to see them in panic mode. And I thank those powers that wish to control gold prices for the opportunity to load up on an even better price today.

Operative

(09/25/2003; 15:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109392)

@ TownCrier, Thanks for the "heads up"

http://gldss7.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.htmlAbove link is one of those daily "check it" chores.

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 15:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109393)

As yesteday's O/N $9 billion ran off, Fed adds $16 billion in today's open market ops

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030925/markets_fed_openmarket_1.htmlWhile the fed funds market was trading in line with the FOMC target, the NY desk on behalf of the System never the less saw fit to inject new money into reserves of the nation's banking system.

Of this $16 billion, $4 was through 14-day repurchase agreements, $6 through seven-day repos, and the remaining $6 through RPs of overnight duration.

All done as easily as a keystroke.

Choose gold.

R.

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 15:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109394)

Breaking News - Earthquake Smacks Japan

An 8.0 quake hit the northern island of Hokkaido causing a lot of damage and tsunami warnings are issued. Some fires reported too. This could shake up the markets tonight (no pun intended).

I noticed a lot of gold shares being sold in after hours and then suddenly dried up. Maybe on this news. It could be an "interesting" market tonight. We shall see.

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(09/25/2003; 15:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109395)

(oops)

"USAGS" was a typo, probably from long habit of typing
"USAGold"

Simply "USGS" was the acronym I was shooting for.

R.

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 15:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109396)

Comments from the Contest Moderator !

I, Gandalf the White, moderator of contests, having heard numerous cheers together with a moan of civic duty, have investigated the video tapes of the Essay Contest judging procedures, and, what I feel to be the most important video, that of SIR M.K.'s announcement of the contest.

I may be releasing confidential information on the procedure of the contest judging methods, so everyone that reads this posting shall forget all about it before the next contest. <;-)

This Essay contest had the greatest response of any to date.
Forty-eight entries ranged from light hearted to extremely complex. They consisted of poems, data stacks, TA, and many other methods of writing. EACH entry was evaluated by different judges and given a ranking. (Each judge is an independent thinking person or Hobbit.) These ranking lists were then combined and the top ten determined. Then this top ten list and the complete list of 48 were re-reviewed by the Lead Judge. The Lead Judge did requested that two entries be reevaluated to see if they could make the top ten. The List was expanded to be the Top Twelve !

Each of the twelve entries were "defended" by a proponent as to why it should be the WINNER. Other judges then debated the advantages and disadvantages of each entry.

The list was reduced to eight entries. As there were only three prizes to be awarded, the discussions and debates were becoming heated. (At this late date point, the video tape contains only a view of a hand raising the lens of the video tape machine so that the focus was only showing above the meeting table, and loud music is heard to be playing adjacent to the microphone.)

However, by watching the video picture closely, it may be noticed that gold coins were infrequently seen flipping in the air above the meeting table.

After a while the FINAL RESULTS, were presented to me, the MODERATOR.

ALSO, concerning the video of SIR M.K.'s announcement of the contest -- IF you could have seen it, he is seen smiling and actually winked as he posed the Question !

SOOO, you may be totally correct Sir ANOO, when you say, "that makes it difficult for me to take your contests seriously".

<;-)

Operative

(09/25/2003; 15:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109397)

Tsunami Warning Issued

http://wcatwc.gov/wwareas.gifThe US West Coast is looking ok for now, Alaska is in the red zone. Something to keep an eye on this evening.

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 15:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109398)

Pisani and ETFs

The reason I thought Pisani's exuberance rather odd was because he has displayed a dislike for gold and even gold mining shares. It was an all around dislike for precious metals. Lately he has mellowed considerably on PMs and is pushing the ETF and suggesting the the same thing could result for other "commodities" like oil.

BTW, I see Townie got onto the Quake news pretty quick. I noticed it as a ticker "crawl" while watching the Democrat candidate debate. My take - 10 blind people describing an elephant.

- Black Blade

misetich

(09/25/2003; 16:24:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109399)

Foreign cen banks keep buying U.S. debt - Fed

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=ZO3BZ3YLT1AJECRBAEOCFEY?type=bondsNews&storyID=3510012Snip:

NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were big buyers of U.S. Treauries and agencies in the latest week, despite recent worries that a potential long-term deterioration in the dollar could prompt Asian central banks to pare their massive holdings.
The Federal Reserve said on Thursday its holdings of Treasuries and agencies for foreign central banks rose a hefty $8.8 billion to a record of $968.1 billion as of Wednesday Sept. 24 compared to the prior Wednesday. The Fed also releases figures that average the daily flucations in custody holdings.
........................
Foreign central banks mostly bought agencies rather than Treasuries, a departure from the past few months when foreign central banks appeared to shy away from agency debt after the management shake-up at Freddie Mac FRE.N in early June.
****************
Misetich

Foreign CB's are "courageous" to be buying GSE's debt - Obviously it is not the EU banks as they have "For Sale" sign on GSE's debt
No wonder Japan economy has been going nowhere for the last 13 years but down - With this type of leadership, Japan will sink bringing the whole house of cards with them

How many more billions and billions can the Japanese (Chinese) print to buy decelarting US $?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

specie-man

(09/25/2003; 16:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109400)

Earthquake

Just wait till the "big one" hits California. I've often opinioned that a major California earthquake could be the "shock" that sinks the whole US economy. How ? California is the focal point of the current housing bubble. A big quake would hit California housing values HARD. The real estate bubble would burst. And with the extremely poor state of California's fiscal condition, the US goverment would have to step in and bail them out (by "printing" massive quantities of new US dollars to pay for it, of course).

misetich

(09/25/2003; 17:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109401)

US Reality Check: Home Durables Execs: 2H Orders Up, Pxs Low> Sep 24 / 9:55 EDT

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=62&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK, Sept. 24 (MktNews) - Shipments of home appliances and
consumer electronics have surged in the second half of 2003, possibly in
response to unusually steep price declines at wholesale and retail, say
industry officials.

Low, low prices are making for happy times for consumers but
creating headaches for manufacturers and merchants, who find they have
to work ever harder to make the same amount of money.
....................
"That is a record number by a lot, and frankly it makes no sense
whatever," he said. Shipments have been totally out of proportion to
consumer demand, which will likely mean "immense carryover" going into
next year. "There will either be a lot of stock sitting in retail
warehouses or the manufacturer will have to buy some of that back."
................
"Air
conditioning pricing continues to fall. Price pressures continue on the
manufacturer," Deming said. "There's a lot of pressure every year on
manufacturers to bring the price of the product down."
***************

Misetich

Doesn't sound the long awaited US economic recovery is materializing
More layoffs are to be expected as inventory glut require to be unloaded

The pressure cooker is heating up as the market manipulators, the egocentric central bankers bite the dust and the public awakes to a nighmare scenario - HIGH DEBTS LEVELS - NO JOBS

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

steady

(09/25/2003; 17:26:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109402)

(No Subject)

ok the link above conifms that gold is valued in grams in china exhchange.
sio ill just assume that silver is to.
now if one gram is 1.0 then the tenths and 100ths place value in grams is where the physical off take will occur as traders can shave on transactions. and over time each .04 gain or .07 gain will accumulate in trades accounts drip drip rip rip paer fire balls perculating thru fiat currencies taking on each compnay one at a time arbitrating, judging and executing if need be its financial balnce sheet
rember the talk of wall street bringingh back 1/16th 1/8th 1/4 so on and so forth as it was a money maker for them .
im sure the same thing goes on in the china exchange, now to figure out that game and get involved in the trading as gold valued in fgrams is easier to invest in fiat wise than the comex.
more at the link about chinas time frame to open up trading on its exchange beyond the 108 limited members now

steady

(09/25/2003; 17:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109403)

opps

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htmlink

misetich

(09/25/2003; 17:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109404)

Talk From The Trenches

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=63&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics says Japan's economy
cannot tolerate a stronger yen because its "bankrupt financial system"
owns $2.5 trillion in overseas assets.

"We doubt Japan's institutions can afford to mark that portfolio
down by the yen equivalent of $200 billion (the rough equivalent of the
currency effect from the dollars from Y120 to Y111), without breaking,"
Weinberg says.

Japan needs a weaker yen by the close of business next Tuesday,
which is the end of its fiscal half-year, he says.
..................
Former Ministry of Finance official Sakakibara, once affectionately
known as "Mr. Yen", reportedly said that Japan can continue with
yen-selling intervention despite the recent G-7 statement, but it is
unlikely to succeed due to the yen's underlying strength.
..................
**************
Misetich

As MK appropriately commented nothing has changed since Dubai - Japan will continue its policy of a preferred weaker Yen -

Since the US is "desperately" playing its last ace card, US devaluation as the other two IR & taxation have failed to propel the economy forward ( never mind the nonsense of statistical GDP growth fuelled by hedonics) China and Japan will continue their chosen path

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Sundeck

(09/25/2003; 18:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109405)

Dummy ANI and Rich Powell - Gold Shorts

Thank you for your comments and helping to clear the fog in my brain

:-)

Tate

(09/25/2003; 18:56:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109406)

On US dollar

What if US treasury simply devalues USD by 30% to gold. How this will effect Japan and China?

I guess they can not do that due to US Money Changers having control , and they are massively short gold.

No way out. One exit is guarded by Asians the other by their own US boys - Money Changers.

Remarx

(09/25/2003; 19:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109407)

Wow!!! Many Thanks

I am stunned, honored and grateful to MK and everyone at CPM. I have never won any kind of contest in my life. I did try my best to answer it as asked, but I know I focused pretty heavily on the "LONG-TERM" aspect of the question.

Perhaps the best part is that I now feel better about purchasing for my precious metals IRA the other day on a peak! I warned George Cooper that I have that effect on markets -- the spot dropped by $12 within hours of my purchase. ;^)

I must say I still feel like a squire in this world of gold. I hope to continue learning from others around this excellent round table as I lurk nearby and listen.

Thanks again,
Squire Remarx

Gandalf the White

(09/25/2003; 19:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109408)

One more little Green "X" and LOTS of COMEX Fireworks today !!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PWell that is the one that the Wiz has been awaiting !
BUT, looks as if the Cabal is not going to roll over easily.
A $10 PAPER AVALANCH to end the day in NY !!
That's OK, would we want it any other way ?
Winning over a good opponent is a much better feeling!!
Get ready to "ROCK & ROLL" !!
Let's see 390 AGAIN !
<;-)

Cavan Man

(09/25/2003; 20:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109409)

China Gold Market Potential

Focus: China's gold rush
( 2003-09-25 11:10) (China Daily HK Edition)

Prominent gold experts and officials are urrging the government to lift the ban on individual trading in the precious metal as soon as possible, as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.

A woman shows a bar of gold in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. Enthusiasm for individual investment in gold has always been high in China. [newsphoto.com.cn]

The introduction of individual traders, they say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

It is "safe and feasible" for China to spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on gold imports, as well as place such purchases on the domestic market and open the market to individual players at the earliest possible opportunity, said Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert.

About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold.

Outstanding individual bank savings in China hit 10.61 trillion yuan (US$1.28 trillion) at the end of July. After trying in vain for years to encourage a high growth rate in private spending, China has had to rely on proactive fiscal policies, marked by heavy government investment since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, to maintain fast gross domestic product growth.

Based on the survey results, Xi estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market.

The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. It would then only be natural for the country to expand imports as China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush.

In the initial stages, individual investors would create a market demand for 300 to 500 tons, according to analysts, and further growth would be gradual.

Spending on such a scale for gold imports would not have a significant impact on China's foreign exchange reserves, they said. Even if the anticipated 300 billion yuan worth of private investment was made right away, the country's US$356.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of July could cater for the demand with ease.

Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan".

Xi's suggestions were echoed by Xu Shouxin, vice-director general of the China Gold Association.

Xu said the association has long proposed promoting individual ownership of gold, adding that the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date.

He also stressed the need to spend part of the country's foreign exchange reserves on gold imports once the domestic market is opened to individual investors.

The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets.

Rising prices

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October, initiating free trade in gold for the first time in the history of the People's Republic of China. But its members are limited to 108 institutions, including producers, processors and traders of gold and gold products, plus commercial banks.

Staff at the Shanghai Gold Exchange follow closely the international gold prices. [newsphoto.com.cn]

The price of Au99.95, the type of gold used in the manufacturing of ornamental items, which was 83.5 yuan (US$10.10) a gram last October, climbed to a record high on September 22, closing at 102.21 yuan (US$12.31). Meanwhile, the price of Au99.99, gold reserved for investment-oriented speculation, which was 84 yuan (US$10.16) a gram last October, closed at 102.45 yuan (US$12.34) on September 22.

Analysts note that trade at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, dominated by Au99.95 in the beginning, is now marked by heavy transactions in Au99.99.

Meanwhile, prices of gold jewellery in Shanghai and other major Chinese cities also increased by 2 to 3 yuan (24-36 US cents) per gram this month.

Some SGE members have been increasing their stocks in anticipation of heightened demand once the market is open to individual investors, said an industry insider who declined to be identified. "These investors have been very active, taking every possible chance to buy in."

A gold analyst with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said the domestic gold market is following the appreciation trend of gold against the US dollar, predicting that prices will further rise following an influx of new capital at the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

International gold prices recently hit a six-year high of US$390 per ounce, exceeding the previous record of US$388 set in February when the US invasion of Iraq was imminent. Prices dipped to US$318.75 an ounce on April 7 in anticipation of a quick end to the war but started to bounce back as it dragged on, and the rising trend has gained strength since the beginning of this month.

Local analysts say the complicated situation in the Middle East, the world's oil barrel, and a sluggish international economy are the two main forces driving the increase in gold prices.

The slow restoration of peace and order in Iraq, escalating tensions between Israel and Palestine and the weaker-than-expected economic recovery in the United States, Europe and Japan have blunted consumer confidence and diverted a large amount of capital into the gold market, said Li Xisheng, an analyst with Qilu Securities.

Sluggish stock markets worldwide have also driven investors to the gold trade, Li said.

Xi noted that Japanese investors have been buying in substantial amounts of gold since the beginning of this month, while the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar has produced more opportunities for European investors in the gold market.

Other analysts even predict that international gold prices may surpass US$400 an ounce before the end of the year.

Short supply

As the world's third largest gold consumer and fourth largest gold producer, China is suffering from a long-term shortage of gold, said Li Xisheng.

The country's annual consumption is about 200 tons, while its production equals roughly 180 tons a year.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange, initiating free trade in gold last year for the first time since 1949, so far serves only institutional traders, rather than individuals. [newsphoto.com.cn]

According to the China Gold Association, national gold output hit 88.12 tons in the first half of the year, an annualized increase of 13.21 per cent. The industry created a profit of 974 million yuan (US$117.35 million), up almost 60 per cent from the same period last year due to rising gold prices and soaring demand.

However, analysts say, it is difficult for China to maintain major long-term growth in gold production because of limited natural resources and production capability.

In China, some 800 producers, each equipped to handle a daily capacity of more than 50 tons of ore, employ a workforce of 400,000. Their combined annual gold production capacity is 150 tons.

However, Li said, 80 per cent of these producers have a daily ore processing capacity of less than 200 tons each.

Small-scale production, a lack of the latest technology and management techniques, and low production efficiency keep most Chinese gold producers from being competitive enough, as do high production costs, he said.

Meanwhile, strong growth is expected in domestic gold demand over the long term, Li said, as individual incomes continue to increase.

-- First, per capita annual gold consumption in China is only 0.2 grams, far below that in Western and other Asian countries. The figure for India is one gram, while the United Arab Emirates averages the highest at 30 grams.

China is the largest potential jewellery market in the world, said Chu Xiangyin, an official with the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. Consumption of ornamental objects topped 80 billion yuan (US$9.65 billion) in 2002 and has been growing by 15 per cent annually.

The market value should grow 10 times in 10 years, Chu said.

China is also on course to become a major manufacturer of gold jewellery in 2010 as a result of increased private spending power and lowered import tariffs, said Kang Xingzhou, vice-chairman of the China Gold Association.

Kang predicted that China's annual gold jewellery sales volume would reach 189 billion yuan (US$22.78 billion) by 2010, accounting for more than 10 per cent of the world's total.

-- Second, the demand for gold for industrial use will also increase rapidly as China becomes the world's manufacturing centre.

Currently, 90 per cent of the gold consumed in China is used to make jewellery.

-- Third, the potential for individual investment in gold as an option to currencies to maintain private wealth is almost unlimited.

Uncertainties about worldwide political stability and economic growth have strengthened this function of gold, Li said.

For instance, global investment in gold rose by 8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2001 following the September 11 terrorist attacks, while growth for the previous three quarters was only 4 per cent.

Closer to home, gold prices in China surged amid plunging stock markets during the SARS outbreak earlier this year.

Such uncertainties may also bring about adjustments to China's foreign exchange reserves.

When China's foreign exchange reserves grow to US$400 billion and the ratio of gold in the reserves is brought to 5 per cent, according to Merrill Lynch, a new demand for 122 tons of gold will result. Gold comprised just 2.6 per cent of the US$286 billion worth of reserves at the end of last year.

For thousands of years, the Chinese have traditionally saved gold and worn gold ornaments, analysts reason. If the government does decide to allow individual investors into the sector, the landscape of the entire gold industry worldwide could change completely.

China's gold rush

The introduction of individual traders in the gold market will, according to gold experts and officials:

-- invigorate flagging consumption;

-- slash the foreign trade surplus;

-- trim conspicuous foreign exchange reserves;

-- ease international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October.

Prices of gold jewellery in Shanghai and other major Chinese cities increased by 2 to 3 yuan (24-36 US cents) per gram this month.

CM comment: Game. Set. Match.

Great Albino Bat

(09/25/2003; 20:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109410)

Black Blade: don't forget the important things in LIfe....

like having your Negra Modelo once in a while. I've switched to N.M. and it's truly superior.

GAB

Waverider

(09/25/2003; 20:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109411)

Congratulations Sir Remarx and other winners....

Congratulations to you All. I know that alot of time and thought goes into entering the essay competitions here and in fact, everyone who entered is to be commended. I enjoyed reading all of the entries - thank you! And again - a thank you to Sir MK for his graciousness in hosting the essay competitions. Cheers,
Waverider

Goldendome

(09/25/2003; 20:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109412)

@ tyro: Citi bank creating $200 million fund for low income home buyers.

Tyro: Your profound question below makes its own Point!

"With all the unemployment, wonder how low and moderate income families, including those with bad credit histories are going to make the payments?"

Goldendome: One of the big problems that will come back to haunt the holders of Mortgage Backed Securities is the fact that many people that probably shouldn't be buying homes now are able to buy them with easy credit screenings, in many cases home builders or realtors actually lending or giving downpayments to buyers, and in fraudulent cases, even making phony bank deposits for prospective buyers to make them appear more credit worthy. Check your newspaper, the legal listings for forclosures are becoming more lengthy the furthur we move into this real estate bubble.

My guess is that down the road many of these now- soon to be- "happy" new low income homeowners will be in default, have their credit ruined for a lifetime, and the homes will be scooped up by someone in the business.

Unless-- Citicorp, or someone is prepared to make the actual mortgage payments for many of these unsuspecting, first time buyers. Myself, being in retailing, I have seen over the years, many people who were on foodstamps and welfare three months before--who were now in the process of buying a home. Huh? How do you go immediately from a position of total dependence to an assumed knowledge and responsibility of what is involved with the monthly payments and upkeep of a home, month after month for years? Answer: It often doesn't happen very well. In another year the people are out of their job for one reason or another, and they're back to square one, minus one home, and their credit rating. -----Gdome

Waverider

(09/25/2003; 20:58:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109413)

It's coming on.....a Haku....

Negro Modelo
Quench Golden Warrior's thirst
Savor thine Nector.

Dollar Bill

(09/25/2003; 21:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109414)

(:->)

Great work guys ! Congradulations
I am going to go enjoy rereading your winning words.
A toast! to the knights of honor at this 5 year celebration at this great Oaken Table of Yore.
Frame your work with the award so your families will know
of the respect you are held at this Great Table.

US GOLD EAGLE Winner, Sir Remarx
RUNNERS-UP Sir Usul and Sir phil288
Special Awards
Sir Aurion; Sir R Powell; and Sir Smeagol
Two Honorable Mention
Sir Yukon; and Sir a nation of one

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 21:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109415)

GAB and Waverider

Thanks for reminding me! Ooooohhhh beeeeerr (in my best Homer Simpson imitation). Yeah, Bud may be "the king of beers" but Negra Modelo is the "nectar of the Gods".

I once had a boss while working deep in the field who had said "if you want to find Jon just follow the trail of empty Negra Modelo bottles". I learned to be a bit more discrete with my disposal methods after that. ;-)

- Black Blade

Smeagol

(09/25/2003; 21:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109416)

Applauses we give, yess, for all the Contest Winners!

(clapclapclap... clap... urrr, why is the Wizard staring at us so, Precious?...)
(whisper)
?Eh.. we.. WON? A Precious? ANOTHER Precious?! O happy day!! (capering)

We was very happy, we were, to have won a Silver Precious for our firsst Posst, (though we messed it up, we did... ach!). And now the Mighty Ones of the Great Table award us a 'Special Award' Precious too? O, they are jusst TOO kind to poor Smeagol! Even if mayhaps by the flip of a Golden Precious (grin), Smeagol is honored to have troubled their wise counsels to ssuch an impasse!

We thanks all of you so very much!

S.

---------

Once again, Gollum missed an important little detail due to his excitement. When I pointed out that his 'essay' was to be placed in the Hall of Fame along with the others, his eyes widened, his jaw dropped, and he just stood there blank-faced. Then his 'Precious' (which he was holding at the time) fell ringing on the stone floor. He looked at the screen,
then he turned to me and said, 'Smeagol... is... we... is FAMOUS? You should have seen his face. I couldn't help myself, I burst out laughing.

F. Baggins

Smeagol

(09/25/2003; 21:58:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109417)

Oi! O MY!!!

http://cgi.liveauctions.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=28292⁢eAch! O! O! Looks at this, Precious! Someone bid for gold bars on E-bay and they musst be laughing all the way to the vaults, yes! Ssuch a deal, ssuch a ssteal. We wishes we could be so lucky! Of the four lissted, thiss ingot has sstamped on it:

"Kellogg & Humbert Assayers"
"164.8 oz."
"945 fine"
"$3205.28"

We calculates Its Gold value (at $395 an ounce) at $61246.96. It sold for $13,500! Sssss!

Some more were auctioned by ssomeone else (and they gots 'proper' prices!), and a hisstory lesson:
http://cgi.liveauctions.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=28292⁢em=2188785885

>ssnip<

..."Kellogg & Humbert Gold Bar No. 482 152.96 oz. 886 Fine gold. Value at time of issue: $2801.49. This monumental gold baris from the 1857 shipwreck of the S.S. Central America. Its fineness of 886 pure gold is higher than usual for native California gold. The lower right corner has been chipped off for assay purposes, as has the upper right corner on the back of the bar. The control number of the bar, No. 482, is stamped on the back of the bar.

Between 1852 and 1857, the S.S. Central America was responsible for transporting approximately one third of the gold found during the California Gold Rush, amounting to an estimated $150 million. This bar was part of the ship's three-ton gold cargo that left Panama, en route for New York, on September 3, 1857, and was lost on September 11, 1857, when the ship sank du ring a hurricane off Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

With the loss of the gold cargo, New York banks began to fail and businesses closed, causing a financial crisis, not only in the United States, but also in Europe.

It was called "The Panic of 1857.

Kellogg & Humbert were government-supervised assayers in San Francisco, but until the recovery of the wreck of the S.S. Central America in the 1980s, no bars by these important California Gold Rush participants were known."...

how do you say here, iss it 'WOWsers'?

S.

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 22:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109418)

Market Wrap Up � Goldberg

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

As I tried to explain to my dentist, we're early in the precious metals bull run. Its eventual end will likely be marked by long high parabolic charts, and lots of smiling bullish analysts finally suggesting precious metals as a "strong buy". In addition to the fundamental and technical reasons why precious metals have a potentially spectacular future, there are simpler reasons that are not explained by the technical charts or fundamental analysis. There is still a lot of "hot" speculative money that is only chasing performance. Even as the stock market dropped from March of 2000 to October 2002, there was always some hot sector for the speculative money to pile into. If it wasn't donuts, it was defense stocks, crafts retailers, or generic drugs. At some point the hot money that currently is highly involved in technology, biotechnology, and retail stocks is going to discover the momentum of precious metals. This will happen when the momentum in the current hot sectors is soon lost. When they pile in, it's going to be very good for early buyers of the precious metals stocks. The relatively low floats and low market capitalization of these stocks will boost their stock performance well in excess of underlying fundamentals.

Black Blade: First I am not pushing precious metals stocks, but the context of this snip and the article describes very how the Lemmings think. They are so easily led. The drones, carnival barkers, Wall Street morons and an assortment of alleged "experts" paraded before the TV cameras continue to cast out "hot tips" and lure in the suckers. "Hot Money" is an amusing way of putting it too. Just like Lemmings running to and fro with the latest fad in the market, precious metals are being overlooked while they throw their savings into "the sector of the day" hoping to regain their losses from the last "blow off" in equities. My discussions with those I work out with at the gym, are much like Goldberg's discussion with his dentist. It also reminds me of FOX's "Cashin In" while Jonathan Hoenig "The Capitalist Pig" debates the merits of gold with the other panelists who have been so anti-gold for the last two years. He smiles ear to ear while they try as they might about how gold is a "terrible investment" in spite of the metal's relentless rise. Some people will never learn.

Ten Bears

(09/25/2003; 22:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109419)

A view on the nature of money.

http://www.stanford.edu/class/history34q/readings/Rotman/Rotman_Origins.html" There are two basic possibilities. A major default can occur, for example a 100 billion dollar debt of some sovereign state goes bad. To avert a crisis the banks who own this debt are forced to appeal to their own central banks to act as lenders of last resort. They would do so by 'rescheduling' the loan into the future, thereby deepening the debt still further with their own reserves, and so increasing the likelihood of the next default occurring. Or, the process will be slower and less explicit: debt servicing activity will gradually enlarge until it depresses 'real' commercial activity into recession. And, since world currency - the dollar in which these debts are denominated - has no intrinsic value, the irresistible response to this recession would be to print money. The Federal Reserve would manufacture the required number of dollars. This would lead to a worldwide increase in inflation and so deepen the recession into a commercial and monetary collapse

Either way the scenario is dire. The Incredible Eurodollar offers only one, fundamentalist, solution: eliminate 'false' money, dissolve the whole institution of xenomoney, terminate the unregulated conversion of trade surplus into debt, return to bilaterally balanced trade, re- establish fixed rates of foreign exchange, and beyond all else re- introduce a monetary order based on a convertible world currency.".....Good read from Brian Rotman "The Semiotics of Zero".

Black Blade

(09/25/2003; 22:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109420)

Is The Dollar Toast?

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2003/0925.html
Snippit:

The truth is, the days of unanimous anti-gold policies of the world's central banks are over. The fact alone that there is indeed a broad consensus to continue the Washington Accord is proof enough that the world's attitude toward gold has changed, and changed for good. This Accord was not just a one-shot deal. It was an announcement, from the highest levels of international finance, that the world's central banks will no longer support the US� blatant anti-gold bias - just in order to support the dollar reserve system.

In a world where the dollar was the world's only trade and reserve currency, such support was inevitable. The dollar was the only vehicle by which world trade could be expanded in the way it has been. But this is no longer so. As stated so many times before, an alternative now exists, and the world is reaching for it with both hands. This alternative is the euro, and it happens to be gold-friendly, in that the euro member banks value their gold stocks at market prices.

Snippit:

Gold is a natural store of value that requires no trickery, deceit, or economic or political arm-twisting to be recognized as such. In contrast, the dollar's masters, who had the unenviable job of convincing the world that a totally unbacked dollar severed from any gold-convertibility was "as good as gold," were forced by necessity to engage in all kinds of political, economic, and monetary shenanigans to support that illusion.

Hence, the advent of gold and other derivative instruments, which were designed as hedges against all kinds of financial risks inherent in such a deceptive, often abusive, and economic resources-draining system. Hence, also, what has become know as the "gold-banking derivative crisis" with its over-extended gold bankers, overly hedged producers, unreported gold loans - and the producers� current world-wide drive to "de-hedge" as they hear the golden bells tolling.

Snippits:

Gold will not be this cheap in fiat currency terms for decades to come. If the entire world (even minus the consistently weakening US) stands behind a higher gold price, who or what will stop Gold?

The US has not been able to stand in gold's way alone, even during its economic heyday. Witness the Australian bombshell in 1997, the British gold auctions, the Swiss sales, the bullfrog-like posturing by Mr. Welteke during the nineties (without any real follow-through, of course), etc. A lot of foreign support was necessary to accomplish that.

When the time is ripe, gold will be allowed to find its absolute, politically undisturbed equilibrium. And that equilibrium is likely to be higher than anyone today imagines.

Looking for a time-table? A "road-map"? Who cares! Gold is going higher, and there is a presently announced, international shared resolve not to stop it. Only to ensure that "adjustment" is ultimately successful. Once it is successful, there is no more stopping for gold - because by then, all countries (minus the US?) will benefit from rising gold.

Black Blade: No comment necessary - just read the article. I would only add that the US dollar is toast because the current account and budget deficits are rising to epic proportions and the dollar simply can't be supported even amid the current "competitive currency devaluation" schemes. Another important line from his report - "it's every American for him or herself."

1340cc

(09/25/2003; 22:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109421)

What I kissed in Ireland

Gandlaf # 109358
The only thing I kissed in Ireland was a 6pk or two or three of Guinness! It ranks right up there with B.B.'s Negra Modelo. Which I have been known to empty a few bottles of. ;-)

Rimh # 109349
Ditto. Last year was my first conference and was the first time I met Bill Murphy, Bob Chapman and several gold mine CEO's.
I guess Bob has dropped off the radar so I dought that he'll be there.

Say is USA Gold going to have a booth there?

Kilo

(09/25/2003; 23:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109422)

Ummm, 'scuse me Smeagol

But that Kellogg & Humbert Assayers gold bar may have only bid to $13,500 on eBay...... It actually sold for $88,000 (to a floor bidder I believe). Oh, but wouldn't it have been nice.......... :)

Waverider

(09/25/2003; 23:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109423)

Japan's promise - and problems

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EI26Dh01.html"There is very little but euphoria today over the performance of Japan's benchmark Nikkei index of 225 stocks, which rocketed upward by 45 percent over the past four months, making it one of the world's best-performing equity markets. That the market has fallen back over the past week on yen fears hardly tempers the excitement...But the fact is that Japan's financial system is a chamber of horrors and its long-term fiscal outlook, though growing slightly better, is staggeringly bad and appears to be based in large part on exports to recovering Western markets. If the US were to stumble, Japan faces yet another setback, Koizumi or no. There is plenty that can go wrong before Japan regains its turbo economy."[to find out...go due north to URL...]

Rimh

(09/26/2003; 00:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109424)

1340cc

Nah, why pay for booth space when you have the best forum on the web? Most people at these conferences are not looking to buy gold, they just come to hear the speakers prognosticate on how high gold going to go, or why you should own this mining stock over everybody else's. It's mostly just preaching to the converted.

On another note, congratulations to the essay contest winners! A very thorough entry by Sir Remarx and I agree with the judges decision, but from the sounds of it, there was tough competition on all sides!

Rimh

Usul

(09/26/2003; 01:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109425)

A comment on gold news, and on the Contest result

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1440150-6079-0,00.htmlLink:
Gold hovers near $400 in march to 7-year high

Comment:
People are starting to understand gold is a valid "alternative investment", although one might consider what really is a true investment? Something that has value, or something that is gambling on a future business success?

Gold relates to the dollar, oil, and the global economy- principals amongst other factors. Never has the global economy been so interlinked. Never has the world had such a large human population consuming energy and resources at high levels.

The gold bull market, which now has considerable merit on the charts, is seen to be climbing the "wall of worry" when we read comments such as "the price may be "getting a little ahead of itself" ". Of course, nothing goes straight up.

I must thank all the staff of USAGOLD for the opportunity to have participated in this recent contest for nothing more than the privilege of attempting to nourish these pages with a few considerations and link citations related to the position of gold and how it relates to this time that we live in.

I see that Sir Remarx has done a good job of taking the "helicopter view" - without getting too bogged down in detail, bringing together the concepts and understandings that allow us to understand gold in our time.

The "Helicopter View", (possibly attributable to the management guru Peter Drucker), is when you rise up from the ground clutter above the treetops and rooftops, and then perceive the "lie of the land", to become able to look beyond the current status, see the larger picture, and how diverse systems are interconnected.

Just as a landscape, its inhabitants, climate, threats natural and man-made are not static but evolve and change over time, this gold market changes even as I sit here. Participating in this forum helps us to understand all aspects from the day to day details to the long-term.

DummyANI

(09/26/2003; 02:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109426)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971 �c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212 �c plus2241�c...385.9

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(09/26/2003; 03:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109427)

@Goldendome - people on foodstamps buying houses

Thank you for this very important observation, as we continue along the trail.

Our esteemed Trail Guide/FAO did make a reference to this quite some time. Specifically, he said that "people on welfare will buy houses". Perhaps someone who is better skilled can search through the archives to pull out this brilliant piece of forecasting.

Gold Standard

(09/26/2003; 04:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109428)

Strange comments from someone who should know better...

No, I'm not going to link the URL in deference to our fine hosts.

However, those who have followed Stott's writings will easily ascertain the location and veracity of his most recent musings:

SNIP:

"This is the way it should be, in a sane world. Today, America exports a half trillion dollars more in goods, than it imports."

GS: Huh? Maybe a typo-transpositional error. In context, it cannot be anything but.

GS: However, a few lines further down:

SNIP:

""Weak" dollars also makes foreign travel less expensive for Americans, and more expensive for those foreigners wanting to travel to the US. This, of course, harms the tourism industry here, and helps that industry in nations with "strong" currencies�compared to others, but not in actual value."

GS: Huh? What is this guy smoking? I want some!

GS: This current toing-and-froing with Au, Oil, and US$ is maybe the "break-point" of the entire system, and is even affecting commentators (disregarding the CNN talking heads who do not deserve to be called commentators or even less "experts").

GS: If any Gold pundit wants to be published on the Web or elsewhere, they should VERY carefully check their sources and prose. The public record is going to stand for generations to come, and no doubt be the subject of many post-grad theses WRITTEN BY OUR CHILDREN.

Just a thought! Cheers.

misetich

(09/26/2003; 05:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109429)

134,000 Lost Jobs in August 'Mass Layoffs'

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A2082-2003Sep25?language=printerSnip:

More U.S. workers lost their jobs in large layoffs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday, another sign that employers are continuing to trim payrolls even as the economy strengthens.
................
About 134,000 workers lost their jobs in 1,258 mass layoffs nationwide last month, up from the 128,103 employees who were fired in 1,248 such actions in August 2002, the bureau said.
..................

California, New York, Illinois, North Carolina and Texas had the most mass layoffs, the report said.
..............
***************
Misetich

Unemployment picture is getting worse rather than better in the US. The spinmasters are trumpeting GDP growth (primarily due to hedonics and military spending) yet at the real front - jobs and profits - the picture continues being bleak

Perfect financial storm continues....

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 07:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109430)

Same Procedure as in February?

Like once bitten, twice shy. As the cartel, cabal or PTB -pick your preferred term - try the same ploy as at the last high in February. By now they must be bleeding physical pretty heavily - great opportunity to stash up again. Wonder, when the big buyers feel it's time to load up?

May be one of the last opportunities to get your precious at the cheap - FWIW cb2

DummyANI

(09/26/2003; 08:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109431)

True Aim of G-7 Dubai-Meeting

http://www.snb.ch/e/aktuelles/pressemit/pre_030926.htmlSNIP:
Next tranche of gold sales

Since May 2000, the Swiss National Bank has put a total of 886 tonnes of gold on the market within the framework of its programme for the sale of 1,300 tonnes of gold. Until the end of September 2004, the National Bank will sell another 284 tonnes of gold. Thus, 1,170 tonnes will have been sold by the SNB under the agreement concluded between 15 European central banks on 26 September 1999, which limits to 2,000 tonnes their overall sales until September 2004. The SNB will sell the residual amount of 130 tonnes in the year following the expiry of the present agreement.
END-SNIP

D-ANI comment: 284 tonnes is only half of COMEX commercial-short. That is equivalent to 91,320 contracts.

If gold squeeze is done, another 284 tonnes are required for the commercial-shorts.

alkahulik

(09/26/2003; 08:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109432)

Gold is Patriotic

Think about it. Gold is a store of wealth. The more gold that a countries' citizens own, the more real wealth that country has!

$381 is looking cheap!! Soon $400 will be support.

tyro

(09/26/2003; 08:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109433)

Waverider and Operative

First, my congratulations to all the winners!
Waverider, I really enjoyed your poem. It's so good to have someone with such a macro view as well as the creativity to describe it with poetry!
Operative, I appreciate the wide ranging articles you bring to this round golden oak table. Just think, this is probably one of the very few forums with it's own intel!

tyro

Ten Bears

(09/26/2003; 08:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109434)

XENOMONEY

http://www.stanford.edu/class/history34q/readings/Rotman/Rotman_Origins.htmlThe math professors appear to have projected the future of fiat currency before, or in spite of, the economists. Interesting read from an 80's book.

tyro

(09/26/2003; 09:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109436)

Economy

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={829FDBA2-79F5-4A14-99B8-1C54829A4782}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnbsnip: 8:30 am 09/26/03 U.S. Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.3% By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, slightly faster than the previous 3.1 percent estimate, the Commerce Department said Friday. The revisions were small, reflecting greater inventory accumulation and higher spending on home building. Offsetting those increases, imports were revised higher and spending on business structures was revised lower. Corporate profits were slightly weaker than first estimated. Inflation was revised slightly higher. Growth was spurred by consumer spending and the largest increase in defense spending since the Korean War. Business investment strengthened, imports grew, and spending by state and local governments shrank.

tyro: Doesn't look good!

Druid

(09/26/2003; 09:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109437)

Ten Bears (9/26/03; 08:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109434)

Druid: Ten Bears, thanks for the link.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/26/2003; 10:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109438)

Ask about BULLION at 1% over our cost, FREE shipping on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Knallgold

(09/26/2003; 10:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109439)

Swiss Gold

This probably means nothing,but those 130t of Gold the SNB wants to sell after sept04 WA expiration are exactly 10% of the original weight put on sale.It would have the same mileage (SwissFr�nkli) if Gold would run to 3000 in the meantime (would you rule it out?).Belgian (where is he btw?) keeps on insisting that the valuation matters more than the tonnage.And the 130t sounds again a bit like homeopathy.

The SNB was the first CB to announce its plans for the time after WA1.In fact,the amount was already covered in WA1!So,basically,NO GOLD from Switzerland after sept2004.This is as nothing as nothing in a homeopathic medicine.

I think we have to get used to the fact that CB's will be done with any relevant sales after fall 2004.They might get some needed cash with miniscule amounts of Gold,but those amounts won't influence the Goldmarket at all.Close to Freegold.

Rimh

(09/26/2003; 10:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109441)

Ah, Norton.....

This is not an advertising service. Please see the forum guidelines. Those of us who come here regularly would like to see this forum continue, but if it is abused, we could hardly blame our host for discontinuing it...

Rimh

Operative

(09/26/2003; 10:59:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109442)

Census Reports Poverty Rate Up, Median Income Down for Second Straight Year

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAVALMD2LD.htmlCensus Reports Poverty Rate Up, Median Income Down for Second Straight Year

WASHINGTON (AP) - Poverty rose and income levels declined in 2002 for the second straight year as the nation's economy continued struggling after the first recession in a decade, the Census Bureau reported Friday.
The poverty rate was 12.1 percent last year, up from 11.7 percent in 2001. Nearly 34.6 million people lived in poverty, about 1.7 million more than the previous year.
Median household income declined 1.1 percent between 2001 and 2002 to $42,409, after accounting for inflation. That means half of all households earned more than that amount, and half earned less.
The poverty rate rose again after having fallen for nearly a decade to 11.3 percent in 2000, its lowest level in more than 25 years. Income levels increased through most of the 1990s, then were flat in 2000 and fell the last two years.
Experts had predicted rising unemployment last year and the still shaky economy would increase poverty and lower income for most people, even though the recession officially ended in November 2001.
Even before the data was made public, House Democrats charged the Bush administration was trying to hide bad economic news by releasing the numbers on a Friday when people are paying more attention to the upcoming weekend. In previous years, the estimates were released on a Tuesday or Thursday.
"Sounds like they're trying to bury the numbers where people won't find them," said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. "This is another clear example of political manipulation of data by the Bush administration to avoid the glare of public scrutiny about the country's worsening economy."
Census Bureau spokesman Larry Neal said the time change wasn't politically motivated. It was originally scheduled to be released this past Tuesday, he said, but was moved to Friday because statisticians asked for more time to process the numbers.
"These are the official estimates of income and poverty in America and every debate on income and poverty for the next year will rehash them," Neal said. "The notion that we should, could or would suppress these numbers doesn't pass the laugh test."
End of snip

Comment: Census Bureau attempts to pooh-pooh thier data and date of release. Anyone in the public relations dept of any company will tell you that you always release bad news on fridays. Always, if anyway possible. Studies have shown that most people have forgotten the bad news by monday.

@ Tyro, thanks, just trying to do my part here.

Operative

(09/26/2003; 11:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109443)

Swiss Gold Sales.

http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3512668≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsZURICH, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank will put another 284 tonnes of gold from excess reserves on the market by the end of September 2004 and sell 130 tonnes in the year after that, the central bank said on Friday.
It said it had sold 886 tonnes since May 2000 under a 1999 accord that limits sales by major European central banks to a combined 2,000 tonnes by September 2004 when the accord expires.
The SNB has routinely sold excess gold. It aims to dispose of 1,300 tonnes -- around half its original stockpile -- that it no longer needs to hold as reserves.
The 284 tonnes to be sold over the next year will take the total to 1,170 tonnes, leaving 130 tonnes to be sold before the programme wraps up.
"The SNB will sell the residual amount of 130 tonnes in the year following the expiry of the present agreement" among central banks, the SNB statement said.
The bank said it would "follow its proven strategy of conducting the sales in regular transactions with prime institutions with which it already maintains business relations".
Gold prices eased on the SNB's detailed sales plans.

Comment: The boys with brown pants are putting on the full court press to get gold back under 'control'. How much of a panic mode are they in? Noticed yesterday, but did not post a link, to a story about plants producing gold from the soil. Desperate is as Desperate does eh? Fully expect a story over the weekend that the reason for the moons highly relflective surface is because it is really made of silver.

Operative

(09/26/2003; 11:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109444)

EU chief plays down missing millions

http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/09260000aaa014c5.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20NewsEU chief plays down missing millions
LUXEMBOURG, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- The European Commission president is in damage control mode in the midst of a scandal involving millions of missing euros, a report said Friday.
The London Telegraph said Romano Prodi brushed off the findings of a damning scandal report Thursday, declaring none of his top team would resign over the disappearance of millions of euros in slush funds and fictitious contracts.
Prodi told Euro-MPs that "things went off the rails" at the European Union's data office, Eurostat in Luxembourg, but said he stood behind the three commissioners in the firing line, Spain's Pedro Solbes, Britain's Neil Kinnock and Germany's Michaele Schreyer.
"I began my term with the slogan 'Zero tolerance for fraud.' I stand by that pledge. But zero tolerance does not mean summary justice. It does not mean condemning people without a proper inquiry," Prodi said.
Investigators have tracked the disappearance of 5 million euros (USD5.7 million) of taxpayers' money into black accounts, but fear worse as they continue to comb through suspect contracts.

Question: How much gold would this buy?? Black accounts\slush funds\unreportable budgets...sounds like the USA.

Operative

(09/26/2003; 11:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109445)

10 year bond yield at 4.02

Simply Amazing. I think October will bring some really big surprises in the markets. The gold bull will return with vengence.

Socrates964

(09/26/2003; 11:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109446)

Swiss gold sales

This is the phrase in the press release that intrigues me:

"It will continue to follow its proven strategy of conducting the sales in regular transactions with prime institutions with which it already maintains business relations."

I.e. the sale of the 284t is a done deal.

Many people are scratching their heads as to why the Swiss authorities seem in such a hurry to abandon their reputation for financial good sense and probity. Is their hand being forced by a large financial institution that is in such poor health that it needs to be drip-fed gold?

UBS was in the spotlight 12 months ago for securities fraud/sacking a salesman who told his clients to bail out of Enron/hiring a former head of Arthur Andersen to chair its audit committee/hiring the trading team of Enron with extreme haste. Since then, there appears to have been a news blackout. Anyone heard anything since?

J-Bullion

(09/26/2003; 11:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109447)

China gold demand

I just had a nice conversation at lunch about the coming Chinese gold market being open for the Chinese citizens. And get this, the people at lunch believe that demand will actually DROP! because as countries get more developed they move away from metal currencies to paper ones. I had 3 people laughing at me and not that idiotic statement. The ignorance in this country truly amazes me.

Ten Bears

(09/26/2003; 11:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109448)

Druid

You are welcome.

Operative

(09/26/2003; 12:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109449)

Analysis: Russia holds cards at Camp David

http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/09260000aaa057ba.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20NewsAnalysis: Russia holds cards at Camp David

WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- A curious shift in tone pervades this weekend's meeting of two presidents, George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin, at Camp David. For the first time, arguably, in the 12 years since the collapse of communism -- or even back to the start of Mikhail Gorbachev's reform program in January 1986 -- America is coming cap in hand to Russia and not the other way around.

Bush may even seek Putin's cooperation on keeping Russian oil exports flowing to offset the latest unexpected and unwelcome OPEC move to limit production. Over the past five years, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has repeatedly confounded the enthusiastic predictions of its demise by free market mavens to successfully keep oil prices at muscular levels.
Ironically, the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein strengthened OPEC's hand by causing Iraqi oil production to collapse. It is still running at only around 55 percent of pre-war levels back in February and March. And this helps Russia, too, as one of the greatest oil exporters on earth.
On joint policy against terrorism, Putin is in the stronger bargaining position too. He certainly wants Bush to support Russia's ongoing grim struggle against the Muslim separatists in Chechnya. But for all the talk of al-Qaida sympathizers training in the gorges of the Caucasus, it is the United States, "the Great Satan," that remains the prime target for al-Qaida and its myriad fellow jihad movements rapidly organizing around the world. Accordingly, right now the U.S. government needs Russian intelligence on the terror groups a lot more urgently than Russia need's America's.
Today, and almost unremarked by the American media, Putin even has far closer relations with Saudi Arabia than the United States does. The two countries are, after all, dominant oil producers with mutual economic interests.
Comment: Japan is not the only place experiencing tremors these days. One can almost feel the shaking as world power shifts and oil/dollar is one of those tetonic plates that is on the move. Cant wait to hear Belgian's take on this article, wherever he is at the moment.

Operative

(09/26/2003; 12:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109450)

Reforms on target: Japan's PM says ahead of expected national poll

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030926/1/3ehwr.html

Friday September 26, 8:00 PM
Reforms on target: Japan's PM says ahead of expected national poll

Snips:
Japan's economy has yet to bottom out and needs extra stimulus, the minister of economy, trade and industry, Shoichi Nakagawa, has stressed in apparent defiance of Koizumi's hope to curb public works spending and rein in national debt.
In his speech, Koizumi pointed to a decline in the country's jobless rate from an all-time high, an improvement in private capital spending and the growth of the domestic economy in recent quarters as proof his policies were working.
"Structural reform is beginning to produce results," he said, adding: "The problem of huge bad loans at Japanese banks will be ended in the fiscal year 2004."
Comment: I believe it! Really, I do! RECOVERY is around the corner and all bad loans will be squared from the books

Federal_Reserves

(09/26/2003; 12:51:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109451)

Trickle Down

> The bottom & middle of the economic income pyramid is melting in fire of outsourcing and cheap imports along with job cuts.
> The rich bankers and fat cats have designed a system that is only good for the investment class, they have forgotten about
> the health of the lower and middle class. > Its killing the economy. The top of the berg is still frozen for now, and doing well. But the fire is coming up fast. The recent > > tax cuts for the rich appear to be on the table for discussion given the sorry state of revenue collection. Who else has
> the money to pay for the largesse of the Washington crowd who are spending money like drunken sailors... Folks
> are starting to take note of the outrageous salaries of the big boy CEO's and stock exchange manipulators, while
> being asked to take pay cuts because WMT workers are willing to take $10/hour and food stamps and now to compete
> the big boy CEO's demand concessions of them while increasing their pay take and selling out inside in droves!

> The whole SM looks to implode.

Mr Gresham

(09/26/2003; 13:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109452)

Primo Mogambo

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3446&tp=cMy kinda rant -- hilarious LOL in several spots -- but I'll give the most sombre passage here:

"But these days my thoughts turn to less lustrous avenues, and I consider the social and societal ramifications, and I cringe to ponder them. Remember Pandora's Box and how all manner of afflictions escaped? Well, the collapse of a monetary system is sorta like that, only worse. Just as "everything is always about the money," in the future the lack of money will be all about everything, which is a nice juxtaposition of a phrase, and seems like it could mean almost anything, but you get my drift. There won't be any money. And lots of people will need lots of money just to stay alive, and they won't have it, and have no way of getting any, and they are going to get testy."

G: It echoed my thoughts as I drove along the water, and saw several very old people out for a walk, one with a cane. "Good for them!, staying active," went my thought. "Pensions, bless 'em," went my next thought. You can guess well my question following that thought.

Who will provide the overloaded hospice care that will allow the future elderly, poor and shorn of medical care, to depart with some shred of dignity?

alkahulik

(09/26/2003; 13:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109453)

$380

Looking like $380 is the magic number!!

silvercollector

(09/26/2003; 13:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109454)

Hope EVERYONE has read this....explains the golden Chinese link

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 14:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109455)

@ Operative - re SNB

Seems to me the PTB are chewing the same old bone - all the 284 tons and 130 tons are all part and parcel, as well as accounted for in the 1.300 tons "agreed", or as I'd rather put it blackmailed, to sell.
Meantime, there still is a hassle as to whatever to do with the proceeds. When the Swiss finally will wake up to the fact that half of their national patrimony has been whisked away under a false and phony pretext all hell will be loose - though maybe too late to keep up the last (fiat)currency to a semblance of "as good as gold"!

We can't have that, can we? Even as small as the SFR may be be ... pathetic, I say and you - cb2

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/26/2003; 14:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109456)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Funny how people get so excited on profit taking at "end of quarter" as Funds and Banks "Sex Up" portfolios with some "window dressing". Nothing new but not entirely unexpected either. The upward trend is firmly intact as the fundamentals have not changed.

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 14:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109457)

@BB

Re SNB Gold Sales As usual you've set it in clear text - a lot better than I can ever do - Thank you - cb2

a nation of one

(09/26/2003; 14:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109458)

. . .

I forgot to thank you for the honorable mention. When a dark knight, such as myself, sees his name mentioned, his first thought is that it's probably not honorable, and rightly so. Selfish as always, my primary reason for writing the essay had been to help gold go up. I posted Saturday morning, and sure enough, when the market opened in Sydney the following night, pog jumped six points at the open. Then yesterday you announced your winner, and I wasn't in the money, and pog plummeted almost immediately. I had done what I could however. And now having insulted all the real winners, my status as a dark knight is not in danger. (This doesn't mean that I withdraw my previous comments.) But last night after the dragon had been fed and the candles were out, and I was lying quietly in bed, I felt an uncomfortable feeling. At first I wasn't sure what it was, since I had not experienced it very often. On waking I decided it was probably humility. Nevertheless thanks again for the honorable mention. I needed it, believe me.

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 14:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109459)

I Don't Care - I buy the Dips ... of GOLD

Sometimes I really do get moody - not that I don't know a bull market is climbing a wall of worry - the gold market is climbing despite the bulls! ... and who needs bulls throwing in the towel at all and every stalling of the advance? I guess the bull needs the unsure, getting shaken out at every and all stalls. Good luck to them and good luck to the happy go lucky TA experts, calling every short term turn.
Can I care less? I sleep very well in the knowledge to have a major part of my personal wealth in real ancient acknowledged values and won't ever be swayed by today's tide to buy or sell - as I still accumulate on dips vis a vis fiat paper (hedonic) pricing.

Still holding on to some primary and even future promises to produce reality - which may not be to everybody's pleasure, as a lot of DD goes into such endeavours - and then the outcome is questionable.

There is one thing, which will prove to be undebated - the US dollar is in for a big fall - not withstanding against what, why and when ... against GOLD for sure and soon - cb2

R Powell

(09/26/2003; 15:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109460)

Happy Friday to All

Mr. Gresham: Thanks for reminding us what fun it is to read Mogambo's words. It prints out at 11 pages.
As for that retirement pension, I still have my copy of "The Whole Earth Catalogue". Maybe too many people judge how well they're doing by how much money they're making as opposed to how little they need. There are ways to substantially cut the latter when there is a shortfall in the former.

BB: If as you implied in your daily report, weak hands sold on new reports of Swiss gold sales- all of which fall within the WA guidelines- then can we surmise that these were Johnny-come-lately investors who have little knowledge of the situation? There are always retractions in any bull market, usually called profit taking, and usually the result of selling by the weaker players. The bull does not like the trend followers and tries to shake them off. Now we need to look to the technicians like Socrates, Gandalf and Hamilton (among many others) to "divine" where the next bottom might be. Over the course of the last few years the 200 day moving average has been good support but, in the bigger arena of ever changing financial sentiment in which gold trades, will POG retract that far? Some are calling the 380 level support. Who knows? I certainly don't.
Happy weekend !!
Rich

Gandalf the White

(09/26/2003; 15:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109461)

Thanks, Sir CB2

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,POK, OK, Sir CB2, There are now THREE RED "O's", (a slight hesitation) just for you !!!
This pullback is to allow you to "BUY THE DIP", but you better hurry, as the ride "TO THE MOON" will start soon.
<;-)

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 15:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109462)

"O" !

@ the Wizard ...

Three red "O's", wow!

Seems like the power build up of a rocket - to da moon - mon?!

Ya suah...so'm I - Hey, hi ... cb2

R Powell

(09/26/2003; 15:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109463)

ANOO

Self-inflicted humble pie? Okay, also the dragon's toenails need to be clipped. You know no one else wants to do it so volunteering would definitely endear yourself to everyone. I've found it's best to ask the wizard to put the beast to sleep before starting on the nails.

As for needing the prize coins, are you still long Comex contracts with a no-trading but rather a buy and hold strategy? If so, we might be asking you to pony up some coins for the next contest.

The state of Massachusetts (RED SOX!) has a lottery. Your mention of humility reminded me of a bumper sticker that reads...."Lord, please let me win the lottery, so that I can prove to you that I could remain humble."
Happy weekend...

Black Blade

(09/26/2003; 15:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109464)

R. Powell � Swiss National Bank Gold Sales

I probably didn't go into enough detail. I am not sure that these investors were "late comers" or not, or some combination. When the press release first came out it did not specify that the sales were part of the WA package. That caused some immediate attention but anyone who could do some quick mental calculation would've realized that these were not new gold sales at all. However, the gold price immediately dropped over $2 on the news before rebounding as more rational thinkers caught on. The selling through the rest of the day into today's NY session was simply "window dressing" as it's "end of quarter". Much of the same occurred in the equities market this week as well. Some Hedge Funds also sold precious metals positions in a spurt of "profit taking" to meet other obligations that came due or will come due by Tuesday (end of quarter). Some weak hands got a bit shaken (mostly novice specs in my opinion or some who just wanted to take profits hoping to get back in on a lower price despite tax consequences maybe). Anyway, we tend to see this activity at the end of quarter for most any sector that has had a good run and if the fundamentals justify it, they return and keep the Bull Market intact. But this is mostly just to make the "funds" look good to sell their product to new potential investors � it's sort of like "hey, look how good a manager I am � I made lotsa money for my clients so won't you give me yours to manage too". I suspect next week we will be back to business as usual and with "earnings season" upon us there could be a lot of disappointed equities investors looking outside the traditional investments. The Swiss Gold Sales announcement was really much a do about nothing though and perhaps some investors had a "senior moment" and simply forgot that this was already a known and planned event consistent within the WA.

- Black Blade

erayboy

(09/26/2003; 15:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109465)

Thank You for the Invitation, But ...

To the Judges of the Essay Contest:

Thank you for mentioning me and inviting me to assist in the judging process. However, I must decline. I'm really not very perceptive as you may have noted by my essay.

My interpretation of the essay description IMPLIED that you wanted an evidence-filled PROOF that the GOLD BULL had begun based on pricing, percent advanced, and prior history. That was not quite the case. In reality, the apparent goal was to see who could enumerate the most complete list of fundamental reasons why GOLD is likely to go up. Sorry, I totally missed that point ... I'll try harder next time.

I'd also like to thank you for making this forum freely available, thereby promoting the free interchange of ideas pertaining to the GOLD/SILVER markets, and for having these contest events which we all find surprisingly exciting.

R Powell

(09/26/2003; 15:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109466)

CoBra(too)

I've often had to sit at a table further away than others (and Anothers) from the warmth of the fire since it's known that, along with physical silver, I trade paper.

Now that you've confessed....

"Still holding on to some primary and even future promises to produce reality - which may not be to everybody's pleasure, as a lot of DD goes into such endeavours - and then the outcome is questionable."

.....let me offer you a chair if need be. Actually, I believe there may be more closet paper players among us than are suspected. I have never seen any convincing argument that physical possession excludes well researched (DD) investment ventures. Indeed, it is probably the investments that become transfered into the permanent safety of bullion and coins. Would I, if I had it? You bet, I'd not store it in fiat!
As for POG, I believe the momentum yet builds. How many have been waiting with money in hand to buy the next dip? If so and quickly, then the Wizard's prediction and then some may be upon us in a heartbeat.
Rich

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 16:33:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109467)

Here's Another Exaggeration...

As Bill Murphy says ...

"The Gold Cartel and Working Group On Financial Markets are truly pathetic and in my opinion ruining the financial system in the United States".

The truth is these fiends are ruining the entire global system, which after all is based on the "only" reserve currency the world has known for too long, and is permitted by the IMF and WB to use only fiat, based on the US dollar reserve standard ... Isn't it great?

A fraud, unfortunately, as it's turning out - like every fiat paper currency before ... and as I just pulled a reserve 100 $ note from my wallet, the avers says "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private" ... that's probably why it states: "In God we trust".

... and so do I.

In money matters I only trust gold - and yes Rich P., some very well researched producers a/o future producers of the same, though I'm very reluctant to advise anyone without the kind of experience I've been through over years.

... and that may be that I've advised newbies to go safe than be sorry - as I've had my share of the latter - so all you guys get physical before playing the markets ...cb2

PS- Also like AG ... a 20% VAT problem in the EU ... until you know how to play along ...

Cometose

(09/26/2003; 16:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109468)

real estate bubble

News right off MAIN STREET for your digestion.......

I have been informed by someone who knows the area and who is in the business.....that last july (2002) 40 houses went to closing in RIFLE .......THIS year the number was 6.

COntractors (one from the area in particular) inventory is rising.....he has had to rent three of his houses and the fourth one he isn't going to build...

Mean while over in Grand JUNCTION the foreclosure rate is going astronomical.....

R Powell

(09/26/2003; 17:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109469)

CoBra(too)

Let me whole heartedly second your sage advice. Transfering fiat into physical is (imho) sound policy. The paper games have a habit of continually amazing, sometimes happily- sometimes disappointingly, those who venture in. How did Jessie Livermore say it, the unknown and the unknowable! All those analysts who continually ask for money in return for investment advice wouldn't need any of our money if their advice were as valuable as they would have us believe.
The final analysis rests upon each of us.

However true I believe this to be, I'll always be a player and have also paid my dues to diligence (studying researching and often learning the hard way). I can proudly say that I'm still in the game but, alas, rich in name only.

Although physical possession has been a wealth security vehicle in the past as opposed to an interest bearing investment, I no longer believe it is not such. The gold carry trade is no longer. That is, imho, precious metals (along with many other more mundane commodities) will not only protect purchasing power but also may return the type of "growth" returns that high risk mutual funds managers dream of. This isn't your father's gold market, anymore!
Happy weekend!
Rich

seeker

(09/26/2003; 18:36:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109470)

Central Bank official of China talking openly about manipulating the yuan via gold.

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256DAD0073688C?OpenDocument

Snippit:

At a Denver Gold Forum luncheon devoted to gold investment issues, Pierre Lessoned, president of Newmont, said Chinese gold demand could only grow with deregulation. "Current consumption is 0.2 grams per person per year. In India it is over 0.7 grams and grew from a level similar to the Chinese 11 years ago. Indian gold market deregulation grew demand from 200 to 900 tonnes, although it has slipped to 600 tonnes now," he said. "Imagine if China grows from 0.2 to 0.7 grams of gold per person? It will be the largest gold market in the world. It will happen, I can see it."

The implications are staggering --- seeker

Belgian

(09/26/2003; 18:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109471)

Swiss Gold - Russian Oil

Nobody ever asks " WHY " the neutral Swiss (non EU-US) are selling 1/2 of their goldreserves ! WHY _ WHY _ WHY !!!-???

Ask yourself a few very simple and basic questions and start elaborating on them : Is Switzerland a poor, isolated, banana enclave...? How many times can one sell its goldreserves...? *WHAT* (comparable value) DOES ONE GET IN RETURN FOR ONE'S GOLD...? Do some specific central banks have a dis-proportionate great amount of goldreserves...?
etc...etc...

I have some posting-fatique and leave the thoughts to other forumers...

@ KnallGold : The co-incidence of the reiteration of the Swiss goldsales AND 2x6$ knock off from the POG is, indirect evidence, that the Swiss goldsales contain one specific (by-side) element : The Swiss goldsales want to *please* (again) some very specific (US) International banker(s) (cfr. M. Rich & Co)! Switzerland *is* and remains an *International* Banker. Note that this NOT the main reason !

@ Operative : The US (> dollar) is "explicitely" asking (demanding) a "co-operative" POO !!! Not only from mother Russia !!!
Today, at CNBC-Europ, this demand (begging) for a co-operative POO was mentioned in unfortunate combination with a hedgefund-manager making some crude-raw remarks on the dollar's status !!!

What if,...IF,...the US$ devalues more against Gold than it loses in exchange rate against the euro !?

Goodnight.

CoBra(too)

(09/26/2003; 19:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109472)

Swiss Gold - Russian & et al 's Oil

Hi Belgian,

Even if you guys host the EU Parliament, please don't discount the miniature members. That may be a bit premature for an equally miniature Republique Belgique...

Da'ccor, it's beside the point as you've got no OIL and sold most of your GOLD, you've decided to play a major role in administrating the EU. Even if other people's guys are playing the major roll's, you'll host 'em. And all of them just love to be in Bruxelles, so much that they wanna sign on for-ever ... to be sure - for da pay not for da outdated Atomium, the only other attraction, except the thought of "ANOTHER" Eurostat (un-)solicited pay-check! - may be in other confetti - namely � ...

Sorry, Sir, didn't mean to be "that" mean, though that's the way you're great politicians felt to treat some of the minor members of the Union - forgetting your own (in-)equal status.

Tell's a lot about the EU - what say you -cb2

Smeagol

(09/26/2003; 19:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109473)

to Kilo (9/25/03; 23:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 109422)

Iss simple Smeagol's face red! We figured if it closed on e-bay at that price, then that was what It ssold for, because there were other ones that showed final prices in the $80,000s, yes. We thanks you for the correction and apologizes for any ruckuss!

S.

Smeagol

(09/26/2003; 19:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109474)

to Cobra and Gandalf - 3 red 'O's

Methinks it is a delay between sstages before another one lights. How far will the next one take It? Careful, Gandalf, thiss might even one-up YOUR fireworks (grin)!

S.

Goldendome

(09/26/2003; 20:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109475)

What determines the Gold Price?

You know, sometimes I get confused and want to know--WHAT DOES determine the price of Gold--physical or paper?

You recall the kids game (Rock, Paper, Scissors)? Played with the hands? Where paper covers rock to win, but scissors cut paper to win, but then rock can break scissors to win. You never know what will be thrown out there against you. The Gold market, sometimes, seems like a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors.

At first glance, I would say physical gold (let's call it, Rock) should control the markets, because there is a limited supply that can ultimately be used to quench demand. But more often it seems, it is the futures market (let's call it, Paper, shall we)that seems to cover the Rock, as it can be sold in unlimited quantities to over-power and drive down the Rock price, as has happened the past couple of days. What are the Scissors? I'll call them (Debt). Debt will eventually cut through the paper to win. But physical gold-- the Rock--will win out over Debt(Scissors) as it can not be defaulted on.

This is just a little game I was playing in my head as I was writing this and pondering my own question. I think it shows me at least, that on any day any aspect of the Gold market, and it's price influences, may be in control and having the major effect on prices.

I would certainly welcome any comments (not so much on my little game, unless you want to) but whether paper price determines physical price, or vise versa.

-------Gdome

Gandalf the White

(09/26/2003; 21:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109476)

Attention ALL Contest Prize Winners & First Essay Posters !!

It has been drawn to my attention that there are a number of prizes that are unable to be mailed out because of INCOMPLETE INFORMATION provided to Lady Marie.

AND, NO !!! rich and famous Sir Smeagol, you can not have all the unclaimed PRECIOUS prizes ! These are being held until the correct data is received !

IF you did not provide Lady Marie via email at (marie@usagold.com) the following data:

Your posting "Handle";
The msg # of your post (not needed if POG entry);
Your REAL name; AND
Your snailmail address.

please do so asap.

It may be that a few of the WINNERS were "Newbies" that read the USAGOLD Forum infrequently, and they may not yet have seen that they WON !! SOOOO, I am listing the contest prize winners below.

REMEMBER too, if your FIRST POST was as an ESSAY CONTEST entry -- you automatically won an one ounce SILVER U.S. Eagle !! <;-)

5th Birthday Anniversary Contest Prizes !!

PRICE GUESSING CONTEST
Lady Waverider (1/2 ounce Gold Eagle)
Sir Runner (British Sovereign)
Sir 401 (British Sovereign)

ESSAY CONTEST
Sir Remarx (One ounce Gold Eagle)
-
Sir Usul (Gold Wilhelm II 20 Mark)
Sir phil288 (Gold Wilhelm II 20 Mark)
-
Sir Aurion (Silver Eagle)
Sir Rich Powell (Silver Eagle)
Sir Smeagol (Silver Eagle)
===
<;-)

Druid

(09/26/2003; 21:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109477)

Goldendome

http://www.stanford.edu/class/history34q/readings/Rotman/Rotman_Origins.html"Whether a form of insurance or speculation (the difference is unreal and for the present purposes irrelevant), options/futures trading has grown at a near vertical rate since the early 1970s, since, in fact, money became inconvertible and exchange rates floated against each other. Trade in them is now an essential and uneliminable component of the world money market (see Illustration 22)."

Druid: Go to link for the cited Illustration, its an impressive graph.

"What, then, is this multi- billion dollar a day market doing? What purposes is it serving? The conventional view of money, as the medium of exchange for goods, would have to answer that the billions flow in the service of world trade, that they finance transactions in goods and services. But few commentators would maintain this, and some version of the following seems generally accepted: 'Less than five per cent' perhaps only one or two per cent, of the tens of billions traded on the currency markets each day mirror an equivalent transaction in goods or services' (Stephens, 1985a). The rest of these tens of billions - the bulk - must therefore make up the secondary money market; a market devoted to the buying and selling of money and of futures/options on money. The significance of this is that the conventional vector of cause and necessity which points from trade to finance, from things to money, has been reversed: it is the financial tail that wags the dog of economy and trade:"

"The divorce between foreign exchange transactions and the trade flows which used to be their raison d'etre has resulted in an underlying volatility which ensures a steady turnover in expansion. The markets are now driven by capital rather than trade flows, and currencies have become commodities whose value depends more on the buyer's expectation of its resale value than on underlying economic developments."

Druid: Gdome, Ten Bears posted this link earlier and its a phenomenal read(my brain is still hurting). I hope this helps.

Black Blade

(09/26/2003; 22:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109478)

Silvercollector � Chinese Gold

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm
Silvercollector � Chinese Gold

Thanks for the link. I saw references to this or a similar article and was eager to read it. The rumors persist that the Peoples Bank of China is quietly buying gold to add to its reserves. One question would be how much are they really buying vs. what they are reporting. We know that they have bought gold directly from South African miners but perhaps they have bought more from others as well. It is also a persistent rumor that they have been buyers of western CB gold in the past and were a major buyer of BoE gold when Mr. Brown essentially "gave away" the Brit peoples gold at a pittance for now vastly devalued foreign currencies/debt. One now must ask if they are buyers of the long standing Swiss gold sales program too. China has a huge position in U.S. debt that they are using to build infrastructure and rapidly industrialize. It would not be much of a surprise at all if they have used a portion of their top-heavy position in U.S. debt to purchase precious metals to diversify reserves.

On a side note it is quite amusing that some analysts here and abroad have been talking of slowing physical gold sales as the price has risen an yet we hear from various sources that Japanese among others continue to see robust physical buying. There does appear to be a shift of precious metals (especially gold and platinum) to the Far East. That these markets are not "transparent" may be by design as to accumulate without drawing too much attention. After all, when this region holds over $2.5 trillion in U.S. paper it would appear to be more than enough to have in reserves as a portion of a "basket" of foreign currency reserves.

Some interesting snippits form the article:

It is "safe and feasible" for China to spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on gold imports, as well as place such purchases on the domestic market and open the market to individual players at the earliest possible opportunity, said Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert. About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold. Based on the survey results, Xi estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market. The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. It would then only be natural for the country to expand imports as China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush. In the initial stages, individual investors would create a market demand for 300 to 500 tons, according to analysts, and further growth would be gradual. Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan". Xi's suggestions were echoed by Xu Shouxin, vice-director general of the China Gold Association. Xu said the association has long proposed promoting individual ownership of gold, adding that the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date. He also stressed the need to spend part of the country's foreign exchange reserves on gold imports once the domestic market is opened to individual investors. The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets.

Xi noted that Japanese investors have been buying in substantial amounts of gold since the beginning of this month, while the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar has produced more opportunities for European investors in the gold market. For thousands of years, the Chinese have traditionally saved gold and worn gold ornaments, analysts reason. If the government does decide to allow individual investors into the sector, the landscape of the entire gold industry worldwide could change completely.

Black Blade: That Chinese officials speak to openly and directly like this is not very common. Chinese demand in a fully liberalized gold market would rock the precious metals markets into a whole new ball game. Earlier this week there was a rumor that a major Asian investor (or group of Asian investors) were on the prowl for a large amount of physical gold. That seems to be quite possible given the possibility of a fully liberalized Chinese gold market.

Yukon

(09/26/2003; 22:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109479)

Thanks for the Honorable Mention in the Essay Contest!

Just wanted to say thank you to Gandalph, Sir MK and the other hard working judges for deeming my entry worthy of "honorable mention". In light of all the entries, you surely had your work cut out for you. As a member of this table round for a little over five years, I believe I have finally engrained enough of the mechanics of how "our" market works and what effects it to move to be able to write out some thoughts and offer my views on where we are and where we are most probably going.

Thanks again for the contests and for this great forum. The education I have gained along the way has been (in my mind) unbelievable. I have all the great people of this table to thank for that.

R. Powell and all: Just wanted to let you know that our friend, James Grant (of Grant's Interest Rate Observer), was interviewed on CNBC today and was found to be bullish on not only gold but, yup you guessed it, silver! He liked PHYSICAL holdings as a play for the individual investor and defined his rationale for such as, "a hedge", which he made the point, is different than a speculation. He apparently also holds a position in Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), but this only came to light after the interviewer pried it out of him and made him comment. His reply was that Pan American is a good play as a low cost silver producer. He concluded with the fact again that the world's fiat monies are all competing to devalue against each other (thereby improving exports)and as such, metals stand ready to appreciate.

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

slingshot

(09/26/2003; 23:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109480)

Winners of the Essay Contest

Congratulations to the winners of the contest. My apologies
for not posting sooner, but had a matter of great concern to handle.
A Thank You to our host for holding these contest and to the moderator,Gandalf the White.
To the judges, A Job Well Done.
May I add, we are all Winners here at this forum. Although I detected a small discourse, that was a point well taken,
it only substanciates the Golden Proverb. He who has the Gold ,Makes the rules. I will continue to enter for the Gold or Silver. The price is right for just a few thoughts put to print.
Slingshot---------------<>

(09/27/2003; 02:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109481)

Syria and Europe take a big step forward

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/Opinion.asp?ArticleID=98638"After six years of hesitation and 10 rounds of difficult negotiations, Syria is at last about to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union, EU. The signature is expected to take place before the end of the year. This is a major development which will have very considerable economic and political consequences."

Belgian

(09/27/2003; 03:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109482)

@COBRA(too)

Dearest Sir, my posting-fatique is the result of all the "emotions" that arise here (and in many other places), when dollar and euro "face" each other. This is unfortunately blurring a lot of the good Gold-thinking that could be produced, otherwise.

I am of the (ANOTHER's) opinion that the euro(confetti)currency has (growing) "oil-currency" ambitions and that the geopolitical (financial + monetary) evolutions must be seen with this competition for oil-currency, in the background. By constantly repeating and investigating on the "WHY" question(s).

Note, that EU-politics are subordinated to EMU-politics !
Political scandals (plunderings) are of all times and all places, but do not overschadow the deep, dominating and stealth evolutions in monetary affairs. And indeed, good Sir, THE EURO IS NOT YET AS GOOD AS GOLD OR OIL !!! But is the euro as bad as the dollar ???

"WHAT" is going to make Gold's revaluation happen ? And what will be "associated" with that Gold-Revaluation ? And WHY is the world's N� I-challenger-China, orderly accumulating, that Gold, on its way to revaluation ? Look closely at the new geo-political alliances that are being build, over many...MANY (political) differences !

It is "real money" that always bought/buys/will buy the butter...! And when it boils down to what is real money and who has it...a lot of emotions do surface above the political nonesense...and the atomium of miniature Belgium.

WHY and HOW does the dollar and euro-blocks agree on the ongoing orderly (Plaza-like) dollar-decline (exch. rate) FOR THE TIME BEING !? It is here that the "real" answers for Gold's behavior (behaviors) must be found and related to. Not the speculators-gamblers are having "the grip" on Gold and its price (worth) but the Gold-Fathers (real wealth managers) who have money-Giants in their wake.

*** WHY *** isn't A/FOA showing up and guide us further ???
Is it because the Gold-Revaluation is on track...delayed or aborted ??? What's your guess COBRA ?

Regards, B.

Caradoc

(09/27/2003; 07:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109483)

"Ramadan Kareem"

Islam's holy month of Ramadan started today, 27 September, with the day's beginning defined as the moment there's enough daylight to be able to distinguish between a black goat hair and a white one. Since it's a lunar month of 28 days, it will end on 25 October. Why mention this on a gold board? Well, despite the fact that the majority of Muslims take Ramadan as a time of restraint of the physical body (no food, water, or other physical gratification from sunrise to sunset) while focusing on their relationship with God, there's no point in pretending that there isn't a geographically diverse subset of Islam who are intent on destroying the financial structure of the western world and who see Ramadan as a special time for implementing the will of Allah as they've been taught to understand it. Good for gold? Yeah, but my personal hope is that US efforts like this one

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,98451,00.html

will minimize the results of any planned attacks.

October will be good for gold for about a dozen reasons even without what the world will learn from the GATA-Barrick/Morgan trial beginning on October 16th. We don't need any nastiness between 27 September and 25 October. Still, in case not all the bad guys get stopped, this might not be a bad time to make sure your hurricane/earthquake/blackout kit has fresh water, batteries, etc.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

Caradoc

(09/27/2003; 08:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109484)

My mistake

Major goof on my part: Ramadan is 27 October through 25 November.

My apologies to the table,

Caradoc

Druid

(09/27/2003; 09:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109485)

Belgian (09/27/03; 03:01:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 109482)

"*** WHY *** isn't A/FOA showing up and guide us further ???
Is it because the Gold-Revaluation is on track...delayed or aborted ???"

Druid: Belgian, my apologies for interrupting. I agree with your assessment and the upcoming move into paper gold is on plan. We can all argue about the timing apsect but certainly not the path and/or direction. I personally think that the new paper gold intstruments are more a relief valve for the HUGE short players so they can minimize any losses on their existing positions and then maximize their gains in the upcoming circus. I would personally lose 100% to gain a 1000% anyday especially if my new play became the start of a new trend in the winning direction. Now here is where I'm really smoking crack, it would be during this time that the separation between the paper and physical price would take place with a WHOLE lot of POLITICAL WILL thrown in btween. I will be back in about 14 hours.

Smeagol

(09/27/2003; 11:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109486)

to Gandalf the White (09/26/03; 21:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109476)

(grin) Smeagol is content, dearesst Wizard, we doesn't want the other Winner's Preciouses! They deserve them well, yess they do (bowing to the Winners) and their essays are much better anyways in our opinion. But ssince we didn't win a gold One (we didn't really thinks we even had a ghosst of a chance for even a sspecial mention! Indeed, if Smeagol can win, anyone can!), we guesses we'll jusst have to call 'ssomebody' ssoon to order One! (grin).

S.

phil288

(09/27/2003; 11:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109487)

Puplava predicts $10.00 silver within 12 months.

Jim Puplava has an excellent discussion of silver issues on his Financial Sense News hour, (hour 1) on internet radio accessable at his site. Well worth a listen when you have time.

Goldendome

(09/27/2003; 11:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109488)

Chop Suey!

First: Druid thanks for your response yesterday to my question with the link re-post. It will take awhile longer to get through it.
-----------------
Now,
Recently the Asians (China& Japan) are being told to stop buying US dollars and allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar. As I see it, this would seem to immediately depreciate, in the value of their currencies, all the dollars(assets)that they have purchased up to now.

They used Yen or Yuan to purchase dollar assets. Now their currencies appreciate, say 25%. When they revalue those dollar assets in terms of the new Yen or Yuan value-- aren't they out 25% if they wished to convert those dollars back into their currencies? Would the 25% loss in dollar asset value be made up by the increase purchasing power of the yuan or yen? I don't know. I tend to doubt that the Asians wouldn't lose somewhere on this. --Gdome.

Goldendome

(09/27/2003; 11:58:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109489)

Puplava's 2nd hour

Second hour of the Puplava internet radio interview is also very good today. He has on a Gent. from the Von Mises institute at Auburn University. You can guess the gist of their collective outlook for the US economy with all the Keynsian claptrap thats going on. A good listen if you have the capability. Gdome.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/27/2003; 12:18:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109490)

A complete gold investment education in 175 pages for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm." (order info)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Gandalf the White

(09/27/2003; 12:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109491)

Sir Smeagol

Smeagol (9/27/03; 11:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109486)
===
Thank you !; rich, famous and HONORABLE Sir Smeagol.
"Lead on" down the Trail, until FOA the Trail Guide returns.
<;-)

Operative

(09/27/2003; 13:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109492)

@ ge :Syria/EU

This story is possibly one of the bigest events to come out of the mideast in a decade. Forget all the 'stans in that part of the world it is Syria that holds the dominant interest and answer to any long lasting peace in that region of our planet. For at least the past two decades the Syrians have produced by far the largest number of terrorists and drugs from the Bekka Valley. When the US invaded Iraq it was mentioned several times that much of the chem/bio weapons we were looking for had been shipped to the Bekka Valley months before our invasion. True? Who can say, but this would not surprise me in the least. If terrorism has a home base that is highly protected it is the Bekka Valley. Syria has also controlled Lebanon since the mid eighties after invading the country. My opinion has been that everything else has been somewhat of a side show and the major battle to be fought in the 'war on terrorism' will be Syria. As the article points out Syria has not laid the financial back drop to joining the EU, and there is little benefit that I can see from an economic point for Syria. However, Syria knows they are being watched ever more closely and that before this war on terrorism is over that they will take a major hit. Is this agreement a ploy on Syria's part to stave off the eventual outcome? What drives the EU to do business with the devil? We have discussed here at the forum the Euro/Dollar tango, but I have to wonder if other areas of skirmish are being planned and drawn up as well. Another area to keep our eye on.

(09/27/2003; 14:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109493)

@ Operative

http://www.google.com.tr/search?q=cache:zTi5DGr-nvUJ:www.sumeria.net/politics/maresca.html+maresca+new+silk+road&hl=tr&ie=UTF-8The above analysis (a new silk road) is dated (1998) but good. The analyst is the UNOCAL Vice President. A trade route is developing and the fight is going to decide, "who shall collect the tributes".

The old silk road can be seen at,
http://www.silk-road.com/maps/images/srmap1.jpg
Syria is a western port.

As an aside, it is said that, when Persians and Byzantines started to war, the silk road shifted to south, to Arabian peninsula. Trade made the Arabs rich. Some people claim that the birth of Islam can be linked to that shift of the trade route. May be? I don't know. The moral: Make trade not war; otherwise, the merchants may go to the south (may be to the north :))

Dollar Bill

(09/27/2003; 15:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109494)

*>*............+

Greetings Sir Operative, I know you are aware of the propaganda we are constantly surrounded by in all subject that involve money or power.
I would caution that the view of the mideast that we have might be able to stand a review. If your neighbor excludes you, you will resent that. If your neighbor oppresses you, you will want some justice. If you cannot get justice, you will find the situation intolerable and will start to hate.

Due to the hindu religion and thier 4 castes, in a recent edition of National Geographic they said that during thier study of India, they read about at least one "untouchable" young man who had acid thrown in his face because he objected to this oppression. Like an "uppity nigger" was was hung in america during my fathers lifetime.
If a young man feel oppressed and has no recourse to justice, he will go to war.
We like to call that natural manly response "unacceptable"
when Palestinian young men throw stones and go to war.
Never recognising that the source is the exclusion of neighbors because a "better" group, more chosen by god, doesnt want them around.

That festering exclusion led to many reactions. One of them was 911.

Dollar Bill

(09/27/2003; 15:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109495)

*>*............+

The sentence should say "The national Geographic reporters, during thier stay, read about in the papers of at least one "untouchable" A DAY getting acid thrown in his face as punishment for objecting to the discrimination and oppression."

Cavan Man

(09/27/2003; 16:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109496)

Dollar Bill

Wisdom (Sophia)

Clink!

(09/27/2003; 17:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109497)

A repeat of February ?

http://www.jsmineset.com/dispimg.asp?imgsrc=%2E%2Fimages%2Fchart%2Dsept272003%2D1%2EjpgSinclair doesn't think so :-

Please keep these points in mind for the coming week:

� We penetrated over the line connecting the two tops of the 4.5 year Tea Cup.
� We broke out of a major triangle of February through August 2003.
� We have very significant support at $372- $376 which also approximates the Fibonacci 38% retrenchments Support Line.
� The dollar chart looks terrible with the only bull case I see being another Right Shoulder.
� The stock market rally is decidedly tired.
� There is an entire new presence in the gold bullion market which in terms of liquid capital eclipses everything in here already except for Dr. No and Huang.

I am convinced as a technician, as one who understands gold's fundamentals better than most, and as a person who has made his fortune in that metal, that we are in a wildly bullish period from all perspectives.

Gold did not turn decidedly bearish last week. This is nothing more than marketplace drama in the midst of a great bull market. Don't make more of this than there really is.

R Powell

(09/27/2003; 18:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109498)

Phil 288 // Puplava's silver opinion

My computer does not speak. I wish it could and many others that I have to listen to couldn't, but it does not. Could you give us the highlights of what Jim Puplava had to say that led him to predict $10.00 silver within a year? Was he talking with other analysts? Of all the markets that I'm aware of, silver has the fewest followers with anything to say, probably because silver is such a small, obscure and overlooked market with very little in the category of new developments.
A broker once answered that the so-called small speculative trading class (in silver) is 40 year olders and older who have bought and hold silver but rarely trade it. By trading it, he was refering not only to selling on upmoves and rebuying on retractions, but also holding the longs and selling covered options and other such stuff. These small speculators, as usual, still have their large long position and have not varied it much at all for a long, long time.
I read here every day so please don't neglect a Puplava report even if you can't get to it for a while. Anyone else hear what was said??
Thanks
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(09/27/2003; 19:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109499)

G7 persuaded to gamble with weapon of mass devaluation

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1051017,00.htmlSNIP:
Extraordinary attempts to rebalance world economics with a new version of the Plaza accord (the 1985 agreement that lowered the dollar's value) ventured into uncharted territory when the G7 backed the desirability of 'more flexibility in exchange rates - for major countries or economic areas'.
==
Maybe brighter minds than mine can see the consequences of this.
My mind only equals devaluation with inflation.
Perhaps I should have snipped other parts of the article also.

Cavan Man

(09/27/2003; 20:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109500)

Very Good List

When John Embry speaks, all should pay attention.15 Fundamental Reasons to Own Gold
By John Embry

1. Global Currency Debasement:

The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.

2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:

When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.

3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:

In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.

4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US dollar):

To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the US, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:

US authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the US's footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.

6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand:

Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional demand (jewellery, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.

7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years:

Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.

8. Large Short Positions:

To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, central bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all central bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the central banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.

9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging:

Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to hedge, and gold producers are not only not hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.

10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial Speculation on the Short Side:

When gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access central bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per annum), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.

11. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point when they will be Reluctant to Provide more Gold to the Market:

The central banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern central banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of US dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the US dollar.

12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity:

Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach 500 tonnes in the next few years.

13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence:

Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold Dinar), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing.

14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions:

The deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, the US occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing conflict between the US and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the US dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold.

15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage:

All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1 trillion US dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.

The CoinGuy

(09/27/2003; 22:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109501)

R. Powell

Rich,

Jim takes the time to put all of his shows in mp3 format, so you can download, and burn them on a CD and listen to them at your leisure. I'm on the road quite often, makes for a good time to catch up. If you don't have a CD burner, perhaps a friend does?

Good weekend to all,

The (physical) CoinGuy

Waverider

(09/27/2003; 23:51:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109502)

Massive power cut hits Italy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/3146136.stm"A series of massive power cuts has left almost all of Italy in darkness. The BBC's David Willey in Rome says that most of the country - from Turin in the north to the southern island of Sicily - is without electricity, after the power went off about 0330 (0130GMT). The grid failure appears to be similar to the problems that caused blackouts in the north-eastern United States and London last month. A meeting of the national civil protection authorities is scheduled for early on Sunday morning to discuss what our correspondent says is an unprecedented situation in the country."

Waverider: Mighty strange...massive blackouts have been rare events in the past 20 years or so, now this is the third within the past 2 months.

The Invisible Hand

(09/28/2003; 04:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109503)

California with honest money? Next month already?

http://clementsforgovernor.com/issues.html
Specific Examples of How Clements Will Fix California
SNIP
ECONOMY: I will cut taxes and regulations across the board with the goal of completely eliminating as many taxes and regulations as possible. I also want to stop the government from interfering in markets and industries which only leads to disaster. These changes will allow struggling companies to hire more people and grow their business. It will make it easier for people to start their own business and make a profit.

http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art400
SNIP
I have decided to run as a candidate for Governor on a pure Objectivist platform. I advocate the complete transformation of our state from a centrally controlled welfare state to a minimalist government. If Poland and Russia can escape socialism why can't California?
...
I will draw on the support of millions of fans of philosopher Ayn Rand nationwide to help my campaign make history.

==
Was it not in Ayn Rand's The Objectivist newsletter that Alan Greenspan published his gold rhetoric?

silvercollector

(09/28/2003; 06:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109504)

Thanks Cavan Man for John Embry's 15 fundamentals....that is awesome.

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htmAbove is THE article (once again) on the potential of the Chinese market and what the heck, here's 15 references to it. Hang onto your seats:

1).....as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.

2)The introduction of individual traders, they say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

3)About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold.

4)....as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market.

The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. (...did he say 3,000!!!!)

5).....China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush.

6)....the country's US$356.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of July could cater for the demand with ease.

7)Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan".

8)....the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date.

9)The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets.

10)Analysts note that trade at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, dominated by Au99.95 in the beginning, is now marked by heavy transactions in Au99.99. (note "heavy")

11)As the world's third largest gold consumer and fourth largest gold producer, China is suffering from a long-term shortage of gold, said Li Xisheng.

The country's annual consumption is about 200 tons, while its production equals roughly 180 tons a year.

(...initially demand would be 300-500!!)

12)The market value should grow 10 times in 10 years, Chu said.

13).....the demand for gold for industrial use will also increase rapidly as China becomes the world's manufacturing centre

14)....the potential for individual investment in gold as an option to currencies to maintain private wealth is almost unlimited. (..unlimited!!!!)

15)The introduction of individual traders in the gold market will, according to gold experts and officials:

-- invigorate flagging consumption;

-- slash the foreign trade surplus;

-- trim conspicuous foreign exchange reserves;

-- ease international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.

...........................................................

Hate to say it but if one has been following the fundamentals (ie: Embry's remarks) and has a glance at the potential of China (and other countries) one would be near 'brain-dead' not to own gold.

When (soon), not if, the dollar swoons (free-falls) and adjusts to the level that it deserves (emphasis on deserves) gold will hit 4 digits, IMVHO. The high hit a generation ago will be beaten up, taken back to the woodshed and shot!

The price of gold, in the next decade could (should) get seriously bizarre. Hold on the the ride of a lifetime.

Have a golden day!

contrarian

(09/28/2003; 06:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109505)

Inherent Volatility of Gold--Get Used to It!!!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=3246&SearchParam=i've%20been%20noticingThis is a valuable snippet I found on www.lemetropolecafe. Sorry if link doesn't work, but here's crux of the article. Basically says, in a gold bull market, you can expect that at least 2 days out of 5, the price will go down!

Here it is:
Lessons from Past Markets

(or How a Full-Grown Bull Sneaks Up on You)

By Derek K. Van Artsdalen

vanartsdalen@hotmail.com

I've been noticing on many of the message boards for the mining companies I follow that folks tend to get nervous when the price of gold pulls back. They begin wondering if they should sell their mining stocks and take their profits. They ask questions like, "Is the bull run over for gold?" and other such nonsense.

Just out of curiosity, I went back to the data from the greatest bull market in gold in modern history (the Big One from mid-1977 to January 1980) and did a study of the day-to-day change in the London PM fix price for gold. Here's what I found:

Out of a total of about 655 trading days from the low in mid-'77 to the peak in January '80, there were 370 trading days in which the London PM fix was higher than the previous day's fix and there were 285 trading days in which the fix price was lower than the previous day's fix. In other words, even during the greatest modern-day bull market gold has ever experienced, nearly 44% of the time, it was trading lower from the previous day's fix price. That's about two trading days every week that traders witnessed a lowering of the price of an ounce of gold from the previous day's action.

Additionally, there were five months during that 31-month run-up in which the average price of gold was actually lower than the previous month's average. No doubt people were wondering at that time, "Is the bull market over?". Even as late as August 23, 1979 the price of gold was only $310.05. But only about 20 weeks later, the price of gold had skyrocketed to its peak of about $875 per ounce -- a 180% increase in fewer than 5 months.

Think how tempting it would have been to sell out when gold hit, say, $400 (keep in mind that at the beginning of that bull run, the price was a measly $137.50), only to watch with regret and frustration as it continued exploding upward past $500, past $600, past $700, and, finally, past $800 per ounce!!!

The lesson is this: it is in the latter stages of bull markets where most of the money is made, and we're only in the early stages of this one.

I found it interesting that on May 15th, 1979 the price of gold was set at about $256 per ounce. The price had risen about 86% from its mid-'77 low. Not bad, of course, but not exactly the stuff of goldbugs' dreams, right? However, by the end of the year, a mere 7 and 1/2 months later, the price of gold had doubled to $512. Then, within about three weeks of that, the price shot up an additional 70% to its peak of about $875.

The point is, even in the best of bull markets, nearly half the trading days will be "down" days.

In addition to folks who follow the gold market complaining about the number of days gold is "down," I also hear many naysayers on the message boards proclaiming, essentially, that "gold hasn't been able to break into new highs." Or, "the last high is now creating impenetrable 'resistance' " -- that sort of thing.

Being the skeptical type, I went back once again and examined the data from the greatest modern-day bull market gold has experienced and I counted the number of days when gold was not only up but also made a new high. This time, just to give the whiners and pessimists a fighting chance, I went back to the very beginning of the Big One (which culminated at $875 in January 1980). That bull actually had its earliest roots after the low of $103.50 on August 25, 1976. I started there figuring that, after the extreme bottom of the cycle, there certainly would have been a larger percentage of days when gold set new highs.

Counting forward from August 26, 1976 (the day after the lowest low) to the very top of the cycle nearly 3 and 1/2 years later on January 21, 1980, there were about 744 trading days. Care to guess how many trading days out of each 100 gold was able to set a new high? You may be surprised at the answer: a mere 20.

That's right: in the most power-packed bull run ever witnessed in the gold market, gold managed new highs only 20 days out of each 100. And that was, as far as we know, without having to contend with the Cabalistic antics we "moderns" have suffered.

This fact shocked me. To illustrate with one quick example from those days: gold set a new high for the move on November 15, 1976 at $138.85 per ounce (all prices using the London PM fix). From that day, gold traded lower the remainder of the year and for more than three months total, failing to reach a new high until it hit $139.15 on February 23, 1977.

This brings to mind a favorite saying of one of the world-class traders of all-time, Jesse Livermore, who used to confidently proclaim: "It was never my thinking that made me money, but my sitting tight� Be right; sit tight!"

In the investment game, as in most other walks of life, patience prospers...

Copyright 1999, 2002 Le Metropole Cafe. All rights reserved.

Mr Gresham

(09/28/2003; 09:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109506)

Help with unit of valuation?

I was thinking yesterday about adopting a new 7-year financial goal, something like growing my net worth by a certain percentage per year. (30% was what was coming up for some sort of reasonable retirement. Yikes! But, nevermind...)

But today I find myself wondering what unit of measurement to denominate my progress (if any) in. If I adopt dollars, why that could be too easy, if the Fed inflates the h--- out of 'em.

And, gold. That could be too hard, if the yellow precious goes to 3000 or so. Probably wouldn't be earning enough to buy many more of 'em at that price.

So, now I'm driving off for the morning thinking about: Cans of tuna fish. (And I don't mean actual _physical_ cans of tuna, either. Haha, sorry FOA.)

Anyone with me on this?

misetich

(09/28/2003; 10:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109507)

Guess who's coming to dinner? - US and Japan joint on the hips

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059480107026&p=1012571727088Snip:

One was Vernon Jordan, .............. Another was David Fite, an American banker ....... The third was Tim Collins, the Kentucky-born financier and founder of Ripplewood, a Wall Street buy-out group. "I guess the new invaders have arrived," one of the Japanese bankers thought to himself.
..................

Can Japan do it again? If the Americans who "invaded" the LTCB canteen back in the spring of 2000 are to be believed, this is precisely what is going on in the bank's gleaming glass and steel Tokyo headquarters. For when this Wall Street consortium acquired the bank, they set in motion not just an intriguing commercial gamble but also a deliberate experiment in cross-cultural rejuvenation. Specifically, the Wall Street bankers have been setting out to import "foreign" ideas into a financial citadel of Japan hitherto discreetly protected from the outside world.
.................
But against the odds, Ripplewood won the day, aided by a combination of deft political lobbying and a star-studded team of American and Japanese advisers and investors. These included Jordan and Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve. The finance came from blue chip investors, including GE Capital, Citigroup, AIG and Mellon, together with Europeans such as Deutsche Bank, UBS Paine Webber and Jacob Rothschild. The final price tag for the bank was $1.2bn. By Japanese standards, that made it a record buy-out deal. But given that the bank had about $100bn in assets, to many Japanese it seemed a snip.
...............
"If Japan doesn't change," Yashiro warns, "if we just keep muddling through, we will keep declining as a nation. We will end up being just an eastern province of China in 15 years."
*********************
Misetich

Japan is fearful of China's growth - easy prey for US to exploit those fears
No wonder Japan has been buying those US T-bills - but so has China

Where has China invested those reported $341 billions of US $? -
With rising trade ongoing surpluses China will amass further US $

China enjoys tremendous financial leverage on the US and it wouldn't surprise if they're able to extort "favors" from obliging US interests

Japan is fighting a losing war - as China is making tremendous economic strides - though still 10-15 years to really rival the US in both military and financial might

Will China continue to accumulate depreciating US $?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the White

(09/28/2003; 10:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109508)

Questions on a slow Sunday morning ! <;-)

I have been contacted by my former mining exploration partner, (far younger that the Ol'e Wiz) with some information that I could not believe. I replied to him and ask if he possibly could be "smoking something" ?
He was irate that I would not believe him and proceeded to send me a great volume of data as proof. SOOOO, more questions I am asking of the Forum !!

I all my years, I understood that two things have been considered the best stores of wealth. DIAMONDS and GOLD !!
(I understood that this was based on "rarity" and desirability !) Ask ANY woman which of the two she would like and I think she would most likely take the diamond FIRST !

DeBeers has done a FANTASTIC marketing and RESTRICTED RELEASE of gemstone diamonds for years. BUT, what if SYNTHETIC diamonds were to be PERFECTED and that it was almost impossible to differentiate between the two types ? AND, the cost of MAKING, say up to a three carat colored or clear diamond, is only a very small fraction of the market price. Would that cause some people that presently have diamonds as "wealth insurance", to start to move that insurance to Physical GOLD ?

Well, the retail market price of one carat and larger diamonds appears to have been falling in the last twenty years. Is that because of more market release by DeBeers, or some other cause ? Will Synthetic Diamonds break DeBeers ? Is DeBeers worried ? Should we worry about our next diamond purchase being a synthetic ? Should my former exploration partner stop looking for diamonds and concentrate on GOLD ?

OK, all you readers, let me hear the ANSWERS !

PS: all Ladies need not reply as I already know your answers.
<;-)

cockerel1

(09/28/2003; 10:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109509)

Mr Gresham - msg#: 109506

I was sitting here musing almost the same thing. Planning for my future and taking stock, as it were.

A nagging item keeps rearing its ugly head and I was hoping for some guidance.

Where better to turn than this Mighty Oaken Table.

My problem: Why am I depending on my Registered Fund as a safe haven for my later years? If we are all so sure that the present financial system cannot survive, and that gold and silver will be the only safe havens, the fiat value (less applicable taxes) could be used to purchase the metals, thus providing that required security.Or are we all still hoping for the present system will be manipulated to provide that security?

Help!

Gandalf the White

(09/28/2003; 10:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109510)

Mr, G's request for "Help with unit of valuation?"

Mr Gresham (9/28/03; 09:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109506)
===
Synthetic diamonds ?
NAW -- Go for the YELLOW !
<;-)

misetich

(09/28/2003; 10:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109511)

Fisher Takes Long - Term Economic View (Fisher oka as the "alleged fixer"

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy-treasury-fisher.htmlSnip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Peter Fisher, the U.S. Treasury Department's fiscal guru, is unapologetic about finding a way to finance what is expected to be the biggest annual flood of government red ink in history. In fact, he's proud.

``Why would I take offense? We've managed the biggest swing in borrowing in the history of the Republic and done a pretty good job of it. That's one of my proudest accomplishments,''
..................
In October, the Bush administration is set to announce a record-breaking number for the annual shortfall between what the government took in in taxes and fees and what it spent.

That number will likely be close to $400 billion, well above the previous record of $290 billion in 1992 and a sharp turnaround from a surplus of $236 billion in 2000. The Bush administration says, as a proportion to the size of the economy, the deficits are not as alarming as they look.

Asked to explain the shortfall to a typical ``man on the street,'' Fisher said, ``If you look at it in the short run, 34, 35 percent marketable debt-to-(gross domestic product) is a middle-of-the-road number for an industrial country. I admit the man on the street may not be very interested in that..''
.................
``Investment is about relative confidence in the future. It's always about that,'' he said
**************
Misetich

Middle of the road? Statistically maybe if one accepts the over inflated GDP being reported (over inflated via hedonics)

Interesting take, from Fisher, Grasso who compliment themeselves on the handling of 9/11 - as if it was over

An event such as 9/11 is only the beginning - chain reaction - from quick fixes to hiding the real truth to having to implement "homeland security" programs, Iraq invasion etc have not post-poned the ultimate shock effect caused by 9/11

As events continually unfold, the crisis only deepens as none of the pre 9/11 financial misalignments have been rectified - to the contrary - it has worsened as the risk factor going forward have increased exponentially as more debt, derivative use has/is being added on

Alleged fixers such as Fisher, Rubin timely chose their exits - Egomaniacs such as Greenspan choses to "gamble" and stay on

Time will tell Mr. Fisher - whether the management of "biggest swing in borrowing in the history of the Republic" is over

Is it over yet? or has just started to accelerate.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the White

(09/28/2003; 10:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109512)

Sir Cockerel1's Question ---

cockerel1 (9/28/03; 10:40:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109509)
===
I have been speaking to others in the GREAT WHITE NORTH that have had the same thoughts !!! THAT is a BIG DECISION !!!
Thankful that I do not have to make that decision as I do not know the ANSWER ! Perhaps BOTH ?

Gandalf the White

(09/28/2003; 11:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109513)

Attention CB2 and Rich !! LOOK at the magical REVISION !!!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PGONE are the Three RED "O"'s !!!! Data was revised to a low of $380.1 and therefore the reverse did not happen on Friday ! IS NOT MAGIC wonderful ?
SOOOO, we must await Monday to see if the low breaks the $380. level on the downside to have the RED "O"'s reappear!
<;-)

R Powell

(09/28/2003; 12:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109514)

Gandalf

One of the many intangible factors, other than supply and demand, that can change the value (usually dollar denominated) of any commodity is the potential substitution of a cheaper or more plentiful item that will meet the qualities necessary for whatever use is intended. Thus, if fish are plentiful, and soybeans are expensive, the fish will serve the need for protein in animal feed. Sometimes the price of soybeans depends partly upon the sea surface temperature in the Pacific which, in turn, affects the fishing. (El Nino or La Nina)

Sometimes technology can change the value of a commodity, another form of substitution. I believe you are right for thinking that, if there are no appreciable differences between real and manufactured diamonds, and, given that artificial production is a whole lot cheaper, then yes, the value of diamonds will fall.

Now, knowing the Wizard as I do, and his love of gold, I'll agree that gold can not be artificially produced although many have tried throughout the ages. A fancy word for use that can not be substituted with another item is inelastic use. There is only one metal that is gold and there is only so much of it on this planet.

I often think of the uses for another metal and the possibility of substituting something else for it. However the unique properties of silver have, as yet, not been found in any other metal, either naturally occuring or somehow manufactured by man.

If I had to choose between diamonds and gold, I'd choose the gold. If I had to choose between gold and silver, I'd choose both. Because gold is already expensive for my budget, my physical metal collection is silver.

Thanks for keeping an eye on those Xs and Os for us.
Rich

R Powell

(09/28/2003; 12:33:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109515)

Repeated request

The following is from yesterday. I'm reposting in the hopes that someone will see it who can relay some information. TIA

Phil 288 // Puplava's silver opinion
My computer does not speak. I wish it could and many others that I have to listen to couldn't, but it does not. Could you give us the highlights of what Jim Puplava had to say that led him to predict $10.00 silver within a year? Was he talking with other analysts? Of all the markets that I'm aware of, silver has the fewest followers with anything to say, probably because silver is such a small, obscure and overlooked market with very little in the category of new developments

CoinGuy, thanks for the suggestion but my computer does not burn CDs.
Mr. Gresham, if physical metal accumulation is what you've decided on for a retirement fund and, if gold becomes too expensive to accumulate, then..... I guess we're both looking at the same problem. Perhaps another metal has the same 30%/year value increase that we're looking for?
Happy Sunday
Rich

And�ril

(09/28/2003; 13:05:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109516)

People buying silver instead because gold is "too expensive"?

Is this the logic of people who rather carry the 30 kilo bag of feathers because the 30 kilo pot of tar is too heavy?

Their $30 of silver is more affordable than $30 of gold???

Wealth is meaningful on the atomic level. More ounces means less if the substance is wrong.

Kilo

(09/28/2003; 13:06:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109517)

Gandalf - RE: Diamonds

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.09/diamond.htmlYou wrote: >>>>what if SYNTHETIC diamonds were to be PERFECTED and that it was almost impossible to differentiate between the two types ?"<<<<<

It is my understanding that both gem yellow and clear synthetic diamonds are already in production, in sizes up to 2 or 3 carats each. At least two Florida based concerns are producing, cutting, and marketing synthetic diamonds via two different processes, one of which is said to actually "grow" the stones in such a manner that they are indistinguishable from natural stones, except for their relative perfection compared to natural crystals. These are actual carbon-based diamonds, not the lesser synthetics such as Moissonite, cubic zirconia, Yag, etc., although dollar for dollar and by side to side comparisons, even the Moissonite stones are superior in brilliance to most natural diamonds and have a higher refractive index.

It seems that as more and more substitutes are introduced into the market, the demand for natural diamond decreases accordingly. As most involved to any extent in the jewelry market will tell you, the "diamond market" has been controlled, fixed, manipulated, and misrepresented for many years due mostly to the DeBeers cartel.

See the link above for information on "The New Diamond Age", and be sure to read it in it's entirety (6 pages). Excellent information and links to synthetic diamond manufacturing.

Kilo

GratefulForGold

(09/28/2003; 13:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109518)

Diamonds or Gold??? Sir Gandalf @ msg. #109508

My dear Gandalf,

I've oft wondered if DeBeers bribed the songwriter to pen "Diamonds are a girl's best friend."

While admitting that I enjoy a diamond (I own only one, my grandmother's), I have never appreciated what the "fuss" was all about!

However, it took me a mere instant to recognize and deeply appreciate the beauty of gold, especially the weight and wonder of a magnificient gold coin!

Since I am not "all" ladies -- and perhaps one of the more strange, er, unique varieties -- I chance to cast my vote!

Her voice rang loud and clearly resonant -- "Let it be GOLD!" (And his wondrous sister, SILVER)!!

Lady GFG

Max Rabbitz

(09/28/2003; 13:40:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109519)

Hello Rich

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htmI just got my power back from Isabelle a day ago and have been trying to catch up. Dang....missed my chance at the gold contest by waiting too long and lost my connection.

Jim Puplava, as is often the case, made a case for silver. He made me want to buy some more. At the end he commented that he had doubts much Indian Jewelry would come onto the market at $10 to $15 per ounce. "But first to $10, within 12-18 months."

He started by saying the large gold mining companies are not finding the large deposits to replace reserves. Currently there are in the discovey/feasibiliy stage only 10 deposits with 5 million ounces of reserves (gold) and only 4 with 10 million ounces. The big companies are replacing reserves by buying smaller companies. A train wreck is coming in supply and demand. According to a Silver company executive, the situation is even worse with silver. Silver is consumed and not easy to recycle. Not enough in a computer to bother with. There are no large supplies of silver left. Comex has only about 40 million ounces. Indian jewelry not likely to be brought to market.....and $10 not likely to do much.

A few of his other points:

1) Photography - Most of the recycled silver (190M oz) comes from photography use (250M oz) and this will drop if photography use drops.

2) Permanent records for medical x-rays can not be altered as digital can be. Printed digital does not last.

3) If you want to buy silver, buy it now. Take delivery.

P.S. Isabelle was a great chance to test Black Blade's advise regarding survival. It worked! I was comfortable, safe and able to help others when the water supply went down and the stores closed. A generator would have been nice, but 30 were reported stolen from the Richmond area. I guess this is where shotguns come in handy.

contrarian

(09/28/2003; 13:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109520)

gandalf the white--diamonds as store of value?

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/82feb/8202diamond1.htmhave you ever tried to sell a diamond?

Certainly, due to public relation machinations of Debeers for the last 60 or 70 years, we all think diamonds are "valuable".

Diamonds are in fact, quite common in the earth's crust...unlike gold.

Only a cartel could restrict their availability and consequently artificially pump up prices.

Please read above link for excellent picture of the reality of the situation.

Maybe if you're a diamond dealer, you can hope to make money in diamonds, but I can't imagine diamonds as a store of value for the ordinary person...it's just the Hollywood and DeBeers publicity machine.

Max Rabbitz

(09/28/2003; 13:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109521)

Diamonds are Forever?

Diamonds are like paper....they burn in a fire because they are only made of carbon.

Try to resell your diamonds and see if they bring even half the price you paid for them. DeBeers marketing slogan was intended to keep diamond owners from reselling and glutting the market. The ad campaign was/is brilliant but it works better with gold.

"Gold is Forever"

phil288

(09/28/2003; 14:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109522)

R. Powell / Puplava Info.

Sorry for the delay in responding. I will attempt to outline the discussion. Actually there were several silver discussions. First was with David Morgan, editor of the Silver Investor, which included an overall review of the current state of the precious metals market. Discussed recent net increase in open interest for the shorts but an expected decline of same next week due to the price break and covering. The key reversal in metals on Thursday was "Nothing to get excited about". "XAU should test 85". Morgan sees China good for supply for possibly 2 years more, but fundamental shift may be developing in their thinking and this long term seller may well soon turn into a buyer, and sees no supply at all coming from India.

400 million ounces reported in overall inventories are actually only about 40 million, 10 in London and 30 or so in Zurich. Buffets supply in London is still there, but unavailable until he sells which could be a long time and at much higher prices. Puplava basicaly buys the GATA message and its implications for the shorts, both in gold and silver.

In addressing the EK announcement from this past week, both commentators feel the whole digital camera issue is grossly overblown. For various reasons, true net take from silver supplies is about 60 million ounces per year for conventional film, not even up to the current deficit. New uses coming include "biocides", "super conductors" and "monetary uses" are going to be way more important that this paltry amount. Shorts are working overtime trying to knock down the price. Any increase in physical demand from any source will lead to price rises which could be dramatic. Short positions in silver stocks rose a lot in the past month, up 95% for CDE and 64% for PAAS. Sooner or later silver price to go up. Puplava's group is considering a fund to buy silver bullion and or silver stocks.

He compared the present situation in silver to the DOW situation in 1982. "The moment in time for silver is now". "There is a train wreck coming in both metals." There is no where near enough supply to replace production to say nothing of the shorts.

In the final few minutes of the first hour, Jim related a several hour meeting he recently had with a Chief Officer, unnamed, of a major silver producer. They discussed the fact that "Everyone is looking for acquisitions". Can't recycle enough silver to equal demand at current prices, no large deposits left. Prediction: "Silver will rise to $10.00 in 12 to 18 months. Supply demand train wreck coming. "If you want silver, buy it now, and take delivery." Phil's comment "Our host is as good a place as any to do this and much better than most".

R Powell

(09/28/2003; 14:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109523)

Max

Thanks for the response. I'm happy to hear you survived the storm with only inconvience. This last price guessing contest was the first I can recall where the majority of the guesses were below the winning one. Maybe this is a good omen.
Rich

R Powell

(09/28/2003; 14:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109524)

Phil288 // Puplava's silver thoughts

Thanks for the summary.
It's reassuring to hear what I think stated by others with more resourses, contacts and time to investigate.

The question of China's selling silver is a big one (imho). The Chinese economy is growing at a tremendous rate. If this growth is reflected in a better standard of living for the general population then copper demand for building (housing) and electric transmittion purposes will explode. This is reportedly happening now. They are reportedly gearing up copper production which will increase their by-product production of silver. The question becomes whether their industrial demand for silver will consume all of this new production and when. When will their needs exceed their production. More disposable income for the Chinese will also increase silver use for domestic products as well as exports.

Many analysts still adhere to the theory that digital cameras will kill silver demand. Phil Gotthelf and William Frejilich have been continually calling (for years) for sub $4.00/ounce prices solely because they believe digital will completely remove all demand for silver based film. Perhaps a time will come when most everyone possesses a film camera and, if so, at that point in time then those changing to digital will decrease the demand for film. Right now, there are probably more new potential users of film cameras (worldwide) than there are converts switching from film to digital. Time will tell. If recycling cuts actual silver demand to only 60 million ounces/year, then maybe the film question will eventually prove to be not all that important after all. Any thoughts?
Thanks again,
Rich

Rimh

(09/28/2003; 15:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109525)

Thanks for volatility article, contrarian!

While most here are getting used to these pullbacks, it's good to have some stats to back up what our gut is telling us....that this time it really is different and the trend is still up!

Also, to Gandalf, I'm glad to see the P&F chart is still intact. What does P&F stand for??

On diamonds, I believe the marketing job is what keeps their value up, but if we are entering a gold bull market anyway, many people will want to acquire gold in jewelry form, so diamonds will still benefit. Are they still as valuable as gold or retain their value like gold? That all depends on the market (you know, that supply and demand thing). If the masses have to start selling jewelry to eat and there is suddenly a glut of them for sale on the used market and little demand for new ones, what would happen to the price? It's not likely that the Central Banks will start buying up and holding diamond as a store of wealth.

Gold is still the best store of real wealth.

Rimh

Druid

(09/28/2003; 18:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109526)

Focus: China's gold rush

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htmSnippet

Prominent gold experts and officials are urrging the government to lift the ban on individual trading in the precious metal as soon as possible, as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.

Druid: Pretty good read.

Dollar Bill

(09/28/2003; 19:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109527)

*>*.........+

Sir Misetich, Thanks for that link today.
A small part quoted here.
"Perhaps no bank epitomises this rise and fall so well as LTCB. On March 2 2000, an incident took place in that very building that some Japanese might consider a humiliating symbol of their weakness. Three tall Americans walked into the staff canteen on the eighth floor and tried to order lunch.

The Japanese staff could barely believe what they were seeing. Japanese companies have traditionally been homogenous places, and a strict separation is maintained between "insiders" and "outsiders". Visitors are shepherded away from the "private" eating space to special "guest" rooms. Not only were there now foreigners in their midst, but they looked utterly alien. One was Vernon Jordan, who is black and at 6ft 5in tall towered over the Japanese around him. Another was David Fite, an American banker who was equally tall. The third was Tim Collins, the Kentucky-born financier and founder of Ripplewood, a Wall Street buy-out group. "I guess the new invaders have arrived," one of the Japanese bankers thought to himself.

The Americans felt almost as disconcerted. They were there as representatives of a consortium that had just bought the bank. The deal was controversial - nothing like this had been done before in Japan. However, the three men hoped that by popping into the staff canteen they might be able to greet some of the bank's staff. "We wanted to say 'hi' - show we haven't got horns," Collins said later.

As they looked around they saw that in Japan bankers sit in neat, quiet rows, in a clear pattern. At some of the tables there were just women, wearing matching uniforms; at others there were only men in dark blue suits. This was not segregation by sex but by status: the women, so-called "office ladies", all held the lowliest clerical jobs, so they tended to sit together.

"I have seen segregation before," Jordan, a political activist and close friend of former US president Bill Clinton, later recalled. "I'm from the American South - I grew up with segregation. But when I looked at that canteen, it was like a whole new type of divide... it was like nothing I'd seen before."

Jordan looked for somewhere to sit down. He could tell that some form of hierarchy was at work in the room, but it ran against his instincts. He had spent his whole life fighting segregation. "I am a free man! I am a man of the people!" he liked to declare. So he chose the first seat that grabbed his egalitarian fancy - right in the middle of the youngest and most junior office ladies - and with a big grin tried to strike up a conversation with the tiny women around him, using his best American "meet and greet" skills.

The women froze in shock: they would have been scarcely less startled had Godzilla arrived for lunch. Eventually the Americans gave up. But as they quietly ate their lunch, watched by a sea of silent eyes, they discreetly peeped around them and tried to guess what the Japanese were thinking. The most bizarre experiment involving Wall Street and Japan had just got under way."

Waverider

(09/28/2003; 20:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109528)

Test

New computer.

Max Rabbitz

(09/28/2003; 20:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109529)

Our Dishonest Monetary System

http://www.fame.org/There is a good audio (1hr) found in the first sentence of the above web site. It is a November 1992 interview by Jim Puplava. One of his best. If you think you have been lied to by the establishment this might explain why.

Max Rabbitz

(09/28/2003; 20:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109530)

Lary Parks on our Monetary Crisis

http://www.fame.org/HTM/Parks%20interview%20Puplava%2011-4-02%20Financial%20Sense.htmThe previous interview I spoke of is from November 6th 2002,not 1992, and a transcript is also available for those without audio.

Time for bed.

Waverider

(09/28/2003; 20:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109531)

Is The Dollar Toast?

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2003/0925.html"Yes. The only remaining question is: how dark would you like it? The Europeans would like it to be a light, golden crisp. The more fanatical of our Arab and Muslim friends probably want it to be incinerated. The Chinese would likely prefer it pretty dark, but with visible, charred remains, so they can still show it off - like a trophy..."

21mabry

(09/28/2003; 20:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109532)

maple leafs

IMHO, silver maple leafs offer the best protection in silver.In theory silver eagles could drop to 1 U.S.D.Junk U.S silver bags could fall to 1000 U.S.D.The silver maple can not drop below 5 dollars Canadian.You have the inflationary protection of silver plus the deflationary protection of 5 dollars Canadian.Any thoughts 21

Remarx

(09/28/2003; 21:20:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109533)

@21mabry: Me Too!

I am also interested in what folks think of 21mabry's question. It does seem to make more sense to buy the Maple Leafs.

Black Blade

(09/28/2003; 21:30:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109534)

Synthetic vs. Natural Diamonds

I ha thought of bringing up this issue is the past but had never got around to it. The new synthetic diamonds (one manufactured through General Electric and there are two other producers now) are indistinguishable from natural diamonds other than the synthetics are or can be flawless. They are also about half the price of natural diamonds even for large karat gem quality stones. This led to another nail in the coffin for DeBeers.

A recent article in Forbes describes a former DeBeers "sight buyer" who left DeBeers to go it alone. He made inroads in the Russian political establishments over the years and was able to sell off the Russian hoard of diamonds for in the 1990's. He also contracted mining operations inside and outside of Russia (particularly in Angola and the Congo). It short he busted the cartel. This came at a time when Australia's Argyle diamond mine left the DeBeers cartel to sell their "pink diamonds" outside of the DeBeers fold. The article can be found in on of the recent Forbes magazines within the last two or three months.

Actually the beginning of the end of the DeBeers strangle hold came with the diamond rush in Canada when outsiders (including Kennacot � now RTZ) began to mine diamonds. Now DeBeers has begun to sell "branded" diamonds that have been lasered with a serial number and there are plans to sell diamonds in specialty retail outlets. The competitors are planning or are by now doing the same thing. The point is the price of diamonds (even gem quality) are falling fast. The endgame is near for DeBeers as synthetics, though still costly are likely to put an end to the grossly overpriced diamond trade.

If you are considering by gem diamonds then save your money and get the new synthetics instead. They are essentially flawless and nearly indistinguishable from natural stones. Get twice the rock for the same price. In fact colored some semi-precious stones may soon surpass the price of diamonds. Gemstones are not an investment as are precious metals.

- Black Blade

Alberta Rose

(09/28/2003; 21:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109535)

RE: Gold Maple Leafs

Our Canadian dollar seems to be climbing relative to the US dollar. I can see a day in the not-to-distant future when they will be at par. I do not understand this trend as our government seems to give away (sell) more of our gold reserves every couple of months.

However, if the US and the Canadian dollar are at par and the US Silver Eagle has a face value of $1 and the Canadian Silver Maple has a face value of $5, does this mean that American Silver Eagles will be spent in Canada as they will have more buying power here? Lucky us, if all that silver flows north!

Kilo

(09/28/2003; 21:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109536)

21mabry msg#: 109532 = Silver Maple Leafs

When you consider the premiums involved on the silver Maples vs. 40% silver bags, and if you don't mind the added bulk, then 40% Kennedy halves probably offer the greatest "ground floor" protection, i.e. you can only lose a maximum of about 1/3 of your investment at current rates if silver fell to the point of making the halves worth their face value. You would also be dealing with U.S. currency rather than that of a different country (a preferable situation if a U.S. citizen). As with the other coins, you are also holding a decent silver play of approx. 295 troy ounces of silver per $1000 face value bag. But it's important to remember that, contrary to some of the sales pitches, it is an "either / or" proposition, and you cannot simultaneously take advantage of both silver content AND face value.....

Goldendome

(09/28/2003; 23:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109537)

Chinese indicate interest to buy BIG in the Gold market.

Gdome: Perhaps others have posted some news about the possible off-take by the Chinese of physical gold, but if they have any off-take like they indicate in some sample surveys, it could be quite significant. Read below.

Posted: 2003/09/26 Fri 17:00 EDT | � Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW YORK -- The Hong Kong edition of Friday's China Daily will be celebrated in gold bug circles after the Bank of China's bullion guru said local consumers could pour $36 billion into the metal, equivalent to around 2,950 tonnes, or more than one year of supply, at current prices.
Xi Jianhua, the Bank of China's gold business expert, is also quoted saying that it would be "safe and feasible" for China swap to some foreign exchange reserves for gold. The country has a little over 600 tonnes of gold in reserve now ($7.3-bn), and $360 billion in foreign exchange.

Xi also wants rapid deregulation of the retail gold market, the cornerstone of which is the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China currently consumes about 200 tonnes of gold a year, much of it met from local production.

Apparently, a recent national survey show that one fifth of respondents claimed to be willing to divert 10 to 30 per cent of their savings to gold. Consequently, Xi believes that private funds amounting to 300 billion yuan could be buying gold, in addition to what the Chinese Central Bank would buy.

The Central Bank purchase suggestion is especially bullish as uncertainty grows about the intentions of Washington Agreement banks regarding the renewal of their controlled gold sales.

Initial private demand in China is expected to be more modest at between 300-500 tonnes, but that would be a large fillip on top of expected demand for the World Gold Council's globally traded gold funds. Gold producers that have recently conducted investor road shows in North America report that hedge funds are especially interested in the imminent ETFs.

Xi said the purpose of purchasing gold would be equivalent to the Fed's market window, allowing China's central bank to take yuan out of circulation, reduce the surplus on the current account and diversify foreign exchange holdings, all with an eye on reducing calls for the yuan to appreciate.

At a Denver Gold Forum luncheon devoted to gold investment issues, Pierre Lassonde, president of Newmont, said Chinese gold demand could only grow with deregulation. "Current consumption is 0.2 grams per person per year. In India it is over 0.7 grams and grew from a level similar to the Chinese 11 years ago. Indian gold market deregulation grew demand from 200 to 900 tonnes, although it has slipped to 600 tonnes now," he said. "Imagine if China grows from 0.2 to 0.7 grams of gold per person? It will be the largest gold market in the world. It will happen, I can see it."

Andy Smith, Mitsui's precious metals analyst, worries that Chinese gold demand will not live up to high expectations, and that investors are likely to make money selling more mundane items to a burgeoning middle class that aspires to the accoutrements of progress.

That said a Central Bank official talking openly about manipulating the yuan via gold is a significant milestone that bears watching. If China does swap a meaningful amount of dollars into gold in the next few months, investors can take Xi rather more seriously than they might right now given the Bank's cultivated inscrutability.

Gandalf the White

(09/28/2003; 23:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109538)

HELLO Alberta Rose -- Questions !

(9/28/03; 21:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109535)
you say:
"However, if the US and the Canadian dollar are at par and the US Silver Eagle has a face value of $1 and the Canadian Silver Maple has a face value of $5, does this mean that American Silver Eagles will be spent in Canada as they will have more buying power here? Lucky us, if all that silver flows north!"
===
Please correct me if I am incorrect ---- BUT, I do not think it is possible to "SPEND" an American Silver Eagle in Canada, other than at a coin shop !
Does coinage now have spending power ?
IT did not used to be possible !
<;-)

Black Blade

(09/29/2003; 00:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109539)

Silver Maple

A few years ago when silver threatened to fall below the $5 Canadian level I recall the mint said they would only honor the value of the silver and not the face value.

- Black Blade

DummyANI

(09/29/2003; 01:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109540)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8

D-ANI:TOCOM is the most cheap gold-market of the world.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Operative

(09/29/2003; 04:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109541)

Clark Parlayed Military Background Into Budding Business Career Before Bid for President

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAAWRE36LD.htmlClark Parlayed Military Background Into Budding Business Career Before Bid for President

snips

Clark's relationship with WaveCrest is just one example of how he has parlayed his 35 years of military experience into a budding business career in the three years since retiring from the Army as a four-star general.
He serves on the boards of at least four other companies, worked as a military consultant for Cable News Network and started his own consulting firm in his hometown of Little Rock, Ark.
Clark's entry into the business world was facilitated by the Stephens Group, the parent company of a privately held family financial giant in Little Rock that operates one of the largest investment banks off Wall Street.
The influential company has been on the periphery of several Washington political scandals in the past three decades, from the resignation of former President Jimmy Carter's budget director in 1977 to the campaign fund-raising investigations of the mid-1990s.
Clark joined the Stephens Group as a managing director for merchant banking in mid-2001. That December, Acxiom Inc., a Little Rock data analysis company, signed a $300,000 contract with Stephens to obtain Clark's help in lobbying the government for homeland security business.
Clark joined Acxiom's board at the same time, and after leaving Stephens earlier this year, he signed another $150,000 consulting agreement with the company. That contract was terminated when he announced for president, according to Acxiom, but he remains a paid board member.
en d

Comment: Stick a fork in it, America is done. This article points out that the people behind the power in this country will only serve up more of the same when it comes to choices for our leaders. "they" whoever they are control the govt, and Wall st. Most Americans are 1. too stupid 2. dont care enough to know. 3. dont have the guts, or all the above to change what has to be done. Gold/Silver will only cure a small part of what ails this country and its citizens, but at least we still have the chance to buy/hold the last vestige of freedom. For how long? I say, not long.

DummyANI

(09/29/2003; 06:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109542)

@misetich (9/28/03; 10:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109507)

Sir Misetich, Sir Dollar Bill ,Thanks for your comment.

A financially serious part quoted here.
�gFor eight years, the bank's management - like every other financial institution in Japan - kept playing for time by concealing its problems, hoping that the economy would recover and make the problems go away. But the recovery never came, and in 1998 LTCB became the world's biggest bank failure. It had at least $50bn of bad loans on its books - shocking by any measure, but only a small part of the $1,000bn-plus of bad loans recently seen in the Japanese banking system.�h
D-ANI---comment: The $1,000bn-plus of bad loans recently seen in the Japanese banking system have not been diminished substantially at all since 1998, they are buried land-mines, and they are recently combined with bond-market crash.
Nevertheless, G-7 Dubai meeting declared a rising-Yen policy, in which I am very glad at a strong Yen as Japanese, in the case of Japanese banking crash a foreigner having Yen will be damaged seriously like as Argentine.
An axiom of economics is very simple, and an ordeal of GOLD is very severe.
Any banks which have not a gold are bad banks. These banks conceals something. Bank of Japan has only 1.66 percent of gold-reserves for her foreign currency reserves.
If Japanese commercial banks can buy a gold instead of Government bonds, they can survive current money-wars.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

cockerel1

(09/29/2003; 07:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109543)

Gandalf the White - msg#: 109538

Sir Gandalf, being from Alberta, I think I can say with all honesty that if American Eagles were presented for payment, any "goldwise" business or individual would gladly "deal".

As far as "Legal Tender", the only institutions that do NOT recognize U.S. coinage are banks and government institutions. U.S. coinage, at par, is plentiful in the money system throughout Western Canada. As tourism is a large part of our economy in both B.C. and Alberta, we do not impose restrictions on too many things. We even import American Beef!

P.S. and the coinage is worth 36% more than the Canadian equivalent.

DummyANI

(09/29/2003; 07:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109544)

@Mr Gresham (9/28/03; 09:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109506)

Sir Mr Gresham and Sir cockerel1, the following is my opinion.
Japanese answers:
Japan experienced a stock-bubble, a land-bubble, and a bond-bubble at this sequence.
An investment for a land is the most expensive, and an investment for a stock and a bond is not so expensive.
During a bull-trend of the stock market(its top was Dec. 1989), there is no reverse investment trust of stocks in Japan. But since 1995-year, many reverse open investment trusts of stocks are generated in Japan.
At the last June, 2003, I think a bull-trend of Japanese government bonds-market was ended after the 13-years top (0.43 percent).
Current top ten of investment trusts are all contained reverse government bonds.
But no pension funds include investment trusts of reverse government bonds.
Consequently, I conclude that some money must be invested in the investment trusts of government bonds, according to the bull-trends or the reverse-trends under self-control. Government bond-market is generally more mild than Gold-market.

Calidor

(09/29/2003; 08:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109545)

Diamonds as a Store of Wealth ???

http://edwardjayepstein.com/index.htmThere was some discussion on CPM about diamonds a while back. I cannot recall the particulars but as a result, I found Ed Epstein's "The Diamond Invention" to be very enlightening � about the control, marketing, and the intrinsic value myth of diamonds perpetuated by the industry (De Beers). After I read reading "all about it", it's highly unlikely my wife will see another chunk of crystallized carbon. You will find some diamond resale surprises in chapters 21 annd 22.

A couple of "Off Topic" items:

I went to my 25-year class reunion this past weekend � Virginia Military Institute. Very nice time. However, I told one of my classmates someone that I had gotten out of investments and into gold. He didn't chastise me but did give me the look that I SHOULD BE INSTITUTIONALIZED. Unfortunately for him, he is on Black Blade's bone pile, previously had worked for an investment firm in NY City.

Last month there was a lot of discussion here on the GDP, government budgets, and Information Technology spending. The Army organization I work in had already purchased 80 plus new PCs, 20 new laptops, 3 VTC gizmos, and some server do-dads. Last week my division chief started scrambling. He just received 300k to spend on IT goodies before 30 September. I don't know if it's printing press or "keystroke" money but hey, we're just doing our part to keep the economy chuggin� along.

MK � thanks for the timely delivery of gold. Those extra ounces kept us weighted down during Isabel. Fortunately we were not hit hard but the storm made Black Blade's admonitions even more relevant.

THE DIAMOND INVENTION
Snippet:
The diamond invention was an ingenious scheme for sustaining the value of diamonds in an uncertain world. To begin with, it involved gaining control over the production of all the important diamond mines in the world. Next, a system was devised for allocating this controlled supply of gems to a select number of diamond cutters who all agreed to abide by certain rules intended to assure that the quantity of finished diamonds available at any given time never exceeded the public's demand for them. Finally, a set of subtle, but effective, incentives were devised for regulating the behavior of all the people who served and ultimately profited from the system....

The invention is far more than merely a monopoly for fixing diamond prices; it is a mechanism for converting tiny crystals of carbon into universally recognized tokens of power and romance. For it to ultimately succeed, it must endow these stones with the sort of sentiment that would inhibit the public from ever reselling them onto the market. The illusion thus had to be inculcated into the mass mind that diamonds were forever-- "forever" in the sense that they could never be resold.

The invention itself was a relatively recent development in the history of the diamond trade. Up until the late nineteenth century, diamonds were a genuinely rare stone (and) the entire world production of gem diamonds amounted to only a few pounds a year.

In 1870, however, there was a radical change in this situation. Huge diamond "pipes" were discovered near the Orange River in South Africa.

These were the first diamond mines ever discovered. Now, rather than finding by chance an occasional diamond in a river, diamonds could now be scooped out of these mines by huge steam shovels. Suddenly, the market was deluged a growing flood of diamonds. The British financiers who had organized the South African mines quickly came to realize that their investment was endangered: diamonds had little intrinsic value .......

Zhisheng

(09/29/2003; 09:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109546)

Euro Pop.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/money/cur/index.htmlThe Euro is acting like someone lit a fire cracker under it.

Boilermaker

(09/29/2003; 09:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109547)

Italian Blackout

Here's a little more on the Italian electric blackout first posted by Waverider.

Italy's Energy Authority has launched an investigation into Sunday's massive power blackout, the authority said Monday.

Italy's grid manager GRTN that Italy was cut off from the European network in four seconds at 3.25am CET Sunday because of line problems in the French and Swiss network. The power system was unable to contain Sunday's failure to a specific area because the drop in power was so "huge and unexpected" and Enel spokesman said Monday.

When the outage occurred Italy's power demand was 24GWW. Within seconds, 6GW of imports disappeared and Italy's plants weren't geared up to step in and meet the shortfall because operators were only programmed to produce about 18GW at that time.

"It's not an Enel problem, it's a system problem," he said. The sudden shortfall "was such an unexpected and freakish event that there was no way they could get it together and respond." Enel "had no way of meeting that shortfall. The plants automatically shut off for safety reasons, otherwise there would be physical damage to them."

comment; Sunday is not a day when electric grids are at peak loads so this event was probably due to human error, ie., a dispatcher threw the wrong switch or a transmission equipment failure. This again points out the vulnerability of large interconnected systems that can cascade into darkness.
Boilermaker

Waverider

(09/29/2003; 09:04:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109548)

Zhisheng

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1So is Spot 'n Spike....

Clink!

(09/29/2003; 09:12:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109549)

Right too soon ? Gary North

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north211.htmlFor all those who might worry about being right too soon !

Gandalf the White

(09/29/2003; 09:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109550)

WOWSERS --- LOOK at the early VOLUME !!!! <;-)

Dec 03 COMEX Contract 9/29/03 PROGRESS REPORT as of 10:44 NY time !
Open $381.3 HIGH $384.0 low $380.2 LAST $383.8
Change +$2 VOLUME = 57,420
Friday's Settlement = $381.8 and Open Interest = 204,664
PS: note that the low was ABOVE $380.0 !!
NO RED "O"'s today !
<;-)

admin

(09/29/2003; 09:24:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109551)

Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New QuickNotes

New Important Links

New Stein

_________

What this might mean to future gold demand is illustrated in the following quote from the article: "As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold. A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.".....Annual world gold demand now stands at roughly 4000 tonnes with roughly 65% of the supply coming from new mine production. A surge of 3000 tonnes -- a near doubling in demand -- would jolt the market into demand driven chaos......

CoBra(too)

(09/29/2003; 09:28:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109552)

Just to say Hello!

In Particular to the Wiz, Gandalf, Rich and Belgian ... and thanks for your remarks.

I'll be working some more (hopefully)on meaningful responses towards the end of the week, as I'm travelling intermittantly.

Nice to see the "bop" was very short lived-at least for now and may have been the fear to let too much of physical go at the futures expiry last week. Looks like the cartel is running out of "friendly" usurpers. After all, they've had to drag out again the SNB to sell, what they've already agreed?, or better embezzled to sell anyway.

What a pathetic strategy these guys are presenting to the world at large. It seems like the US and its dollar reserve currency has put itself into a box - and from here on there seems to be no escape - as the US and its dollar is now at the mercy of their lenders.

Ok, no-one wants a meltdown of the international dollar system right away, though the US is pushing it too far already. The breaking point is out there, for all to see, and it won't last for much longer at the pace the FED (US) is pushing their paper down our throats.

I also suggest that Belgian is correct about the "confetti" � paper currency, though it's not as inundated in debt, vis a vis the US dollar, YET! Though, don't laugh at Mahatir's Gold Dinar and/or China's answer to Snow-man to liberate gold as money...

Buy the golden dips ... cb2

Great Albino Bat

(09/29/2003; 10:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109553)

Blackouts: fishy business?

The GAB is showing signs of paranoia. What is his latest persecution mania centered on? - The Blackouts.

The first one, August 14th. Then came London and Southeast England. Now, on Saturday, Italy was entirely blacked out (except for Sardinia).

One more blackout, and the GAB will have no remaining doubt that these events are provoked. Three in 45 days is the limit.

****

By far the most important news these past days, has been the reported advice from Xi Jianhua, the Bank of China's gold business expert, in favor of allowing individuals to trade gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

If the GAB reads this correctly, China is throwing down the glove in a challenge to the international monetary system. The USA's bluff is called. This is "checkmate" for paper. This is what Mr. Snow got for his efforts!

Next three months should see impressive fireworks.

Guano from the GAB.

Gandalf the White

(09/29/2003; 10:27:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109554)

WOWSERS !!! The US$ just FELL off a CLIFF !!! STRAIGHT DOWN !!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Look at the chart a the above LINK !
<;-(

tyro

(09/29/2003; 10:27:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109555)

Vietnamese Bankers Worried

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030929/16/3ejji.htmlsnip: Monday September 29, 1:04 PM
Vietnamese Bankers Worried About Fallout From Gold Price Rise
HANOI, Sept 29 Asia Pulse - The relentless rise in gold prices is keeping experts on tenterhooks about the possible fallout on interest rates and inflation.
The State Bank of Viet Nam's Banking Development Strategy Department chief, Le Xuan Nghia, pointed out that the price rise would cause an increase in gold savings, a popular haven in the country, accounting for 40 per cent of all savings.
This, in turn, will put pressure on commercial banks to raise interest rates to attract deposits, opening a Pandora's box which was only recently closed.
With savings chasing after gold, experts are also worried about possible inflation. Both the real estate and stock markets are strongly influenced by gold prices fluctuations.
The former has ground to a halt with transactions put on hold after gold prices began climbing two weeks ago. As for the stock market, investors could pull out and make a beeline for the yellow metal.
Nghia also warned that the dong may come under pressure since the local economy is greatly influenced by psychological factors.
He said, however, that the State Bank has so far not decided to intervene since there are no efficient measures considering local prices follow international trends.
But there is cause for optimism as world gold prices have shown the first signs of declining, reaching US$385 per ounce (US$463.9 per tael) against US$388 (US$467.5 per tael) on Tuesday.

tyro: If some bank is actually talking about it out loud, I wonder what's being said behind closed doors.

e-mailer

(09/29/2003; 11:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109556)

up and down

As a person who was margin invested (long) in gold during the famous stock market selloff in October, 1987 (I believe the Dow was down more than 20% in one day), and got "hammered" the following day when gold was hugely sold off to meet Dow type margin calls, I ask forum posters to address the following question.

Should the broad market sell off sharply in the future, similar to 1987 (I believe it will), will the U.S. dollar be sold by foreign holders of U.S. stocks such that the benefit to the gold price and/or gold stocks will offset any downward pressure due to physical gold, gold stock, and "paper gold" sales to meet Dow type margin calls?

I consider this issue to be extremely important and hope others will as well.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/29/2003; 11:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109557)

Construct your financial foundation with building materials priced right, free shipping on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Paper Avalanche

(09/29/2003; 11:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109558)

ETF News from Calandra

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktwInformative article

steady

(09/29/2003; 11:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109559)

gab/ blackouts

relax its just the ptb letting hte world know large elecrtical grids will be/are becoming obsolete. look for distributive power.
thats the keybuzzword. its coming thanks to nimbys and large power plants not being able to be located where tehy need to be.

TownCrier

(09/29/2003; 11:50:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109560)

Will you be the paper tiger's lunch?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktwHEADLINE: Gold fund on track, new filing shows -- 'Paper gold' security seen hitting NYSE within months

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Sept. 29, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - A controversial proposal for an exchange-traded gold fund is back on track, according to a fresh filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission.

The World Gold Council's chairman, Chris Thompson, told me Monday morning he and the trade group declined any and all comment on the proposed issue.

"The trust holds gold and will from time to time issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distribute gold in connection with redemptions of baskets," the S-1 filing says. "The investment objective of the Trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses. For many investors, the shares will represent�a cost effective investment in gold."

...At present, there is no exchange-traded fund representing a commodity that changes hands in the United States.

Yet the gold council's efforts, spearheaded by its chairman, Thompson, the former chief executive of South African miner Gold Fields Ltd., and by new council CEO Jim Burton, hit a brick wall this past summer. Equity Gold Trust got caught in a hornet's nest of regulatory issues, including concerns about the custody of stored gold, as well as the fund's tax status and a head-butting turf battle with the Bank of New York, which hopes to lead the way in the field of securitized commodities.

Now, with Bank of New York named as the trustee, gold council members and fund managers tell me the proposed fund is on track to generate enough demand for several hundred metric tons of the metal, and perhaps more. The fund's backers are still shrouding their marketing plans in secrecy, crossing their fingers that the new registration statement with American regulators sparks no more new questions.

"All the World Gold Council types were pretty tight-lipped in Denver," Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway told me. The council had hoped to tell members at the Denver Gold Show last week that the new fund would begin trading on the NYSE imminently. "They are taking no chances on any leaks."

The World Gold Council's Equity Gold Trust would mark the second commodity-linked security to grace the floors of a stock exchange. The first, Gold Bullion Ltd.'s Australia-traded security, is already meeting brisk demand for so-called "paper gold."

The prospect of paper gold has gold believers titillated. But the administration of such a product required coordination among bank vaults, electronic data centers, custodians, trustees, buyers, sellers and regulators.

At the heart of the day-to-day running of a gold exchange-traded fund would be Bank of New York, the trustee. The bank, according to the prospectus, would have to "monitor the trust's on-going expenses and sell the trust's gold as needed to pay the trust's expenses (gold sales are expected to occur approximately monthly in the ordinary course), calculate�the net asset value of the trust and receive and processing orders from authorized participants to create and�redeem baskets and coordinating the processing of such orders with the custodian and the Depository�Trust Co."

-------(see url for (what seems to be) the latest fad in a long line of watered-down assets and property rights)------

R.

Zhisheng

(09/29/2003; 12:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109561)

Dollar Drop

@Gandi der WeiseGandalf, I've been curious to learn what caused this. About all I've found is "on speculation U.S. officials may seek a weaker currency to boost corporate profits and extend an economic recovery" in a Bloomberg article, and this is hardly news.

I reckon the shorts had to spend a bundle to keep gold from rising more than it did today.

Great Albino Bat

(09/29/2003; 12:22:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109562)

Further comments on "China's Gold Rush"

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm

"The introduction of individual traders, ["prominent gold experts and officials"] say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency."

Let's start with the last point, "easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency."

What this probably refers to, is Treasury Secretary Snow's unfortunate recent attempt to influence Chinese monetary policy during his visit to China.

"So you want to influence our policy, Mr. Snow? � How's this for size?"

The Chinese people are great savers. ["Outstanding individual bank savings in China hit � US $1.28 Trillion at the end of July"] The Chinese government has tried "in vain to encourage a high growth rate in private spending".

So now, the Chinese government is going to allow the Chinese to "spend" - on gold! The Chinese dearly love gold, and now that it will be OK for them to "spend" on gold for investment, the result will surely be overwhelming. This is the answer to US pressure to stimulate internal consumption in the economy of China, rather than emphasizing exports. Blow No. 1!

Of course, if the Chinese are going to "spend" on gold, they have to get it from the rest of the world, either from accumulated stocks of gold, or from gold miners all over the world. Note that the Chinese traditionally, were never great importers. In old times they used to say: "What do you offer, that we do not have?" They wanted silver and gold for their exports, not manufactures; the British discovered something else the Chinese desired � opium, banned by the Emperors - and so were born many British and American fortunes: the opium trade was the foundation of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) and also, for instance, of the Delano family fortune, a family which bore Franklin Delano Roosevelt. So now, the Chinese return to their ancient ways: "China does not need your manufactures. However, we will quite happily take your ridiculously undervalued gold. You can export your gold to us, and thus, we will reduce our trade surplus, about which you complain so bitterly." Blow No.2!

"By spending on buying your cheap gold, we shall reduce our overload of foreign exchange reserves, which you and I both know are worthless papers."
Blow No. 3!

Three strikes and the International Monetary System is on the ropes, if not totally kayoed at this moment.

This message coming out of China is totally bullish for gold.

The GAB

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/29/2003; 13:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109563)

Page Update!

Henri

(09/29/2003; 14:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109564)

Former BIS private shareholders get BONUS!

http://www.bis.org/press/p030922.htmProbably still won't make up for the difference in value those shares would have represented after the BIS engineered revaluation of gold. Former shareholders disenfranchised? youbettcha! Yet another example of how a global organization can just change the rules on a whim if it looks as if some individuals might actually have capitalized on a farsighted investment risk.

Gandalf the White

(09/29/2003; 14:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109565)

Sir Dr. Zhisheng -- I wish I could tell you -- BUT, I know not why !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Zhisheng (9/29/03; 12:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109561)
Dollar Drop
Gandalf, I've been curious to learn what caused this.
--
I reckon the shorts had to spend a bundle to keep gold from rising more than it did today. ****TRUE TRUE !!
---
"Gandi der Weise", ****I only wish !
<;-)

Clink!

(09/29/2003; 14:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109566)

The devil in the detail....

I have been following the discussion about the ETF, and while I can understand the points of view, I thought that we needed some hard information about it before coming to any firm conclusions. Well, now we have some more details in the form of the S-1. Maybe I'm paranoid, but does this phrase make anyone else VERY nervous ? "The investment objective of the Trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses." Not "reflect the value of gold bullion" but the price (in fiat) performance. You don't need bullion to reflect a paper price.
OK, I'll plough through the S-1 and see if it is just an unfortunate turn of phrase.
C!

Liberty Head

(09/29/2003; 15:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109567)

On The Money Trail, Formula 1 Style

I just got back home from Indy :-)
Formula 1 auto racing is one of the best examples of a truly international sport. It is a big money sport as well.

Like any other business, Formula 1 promoters must go where the money is. They are quick to leave places where the money isn't. Perhaps that's why they can live in Monaco and why Michael Schumacher is the world's highest paid athlete.

So, if we wish to walk in the footsteps of giants, all one need do is look at the annual Formula 1 race calendar. Here, at a glance, we can see where the international money trail goes.

Next year Sakkir, Bahrain and Shanghai, China have been added to the calendar. Canada is out next year and the U.S. will likely be off the calendar by 2005. Silverstone in England is on thin ice as well.

The Formula 1 race calendar also moves toward free-markets and away from controlled markets. Countries like Belgium, Canada and the U.S., that ban certain types of advertising fall off the calendar quickly.

None of this should come as a surprise to any of us who have followed this wonderful forum provided by our kind hosts. I heard it first right here. The Formula 1 calendar independently confirms much of what I've read here.

Best Wishes

glennh10

(09/29/2003; 15:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109568)

Re: Maple Leafs and Dollars

Some thoughts.
My focus here at this forum concerns gold and silver, as opposed to legal tender. I really don't care what dollar value is stamped on a gold or silver coin. This is based on what I understand of the Constitution and the original coinage act, the Coinage Act of 1792. The dollar value of the (silver/gold) coin is to be based entirely on its weight. A coin of full weight retains its full dollar value. A coin of lesser weight (worn, holed) has a dollar value based on its remaining weight. In fact, in the days of circulating gold, commercial banks used scales for weighing worn coins. And, private mints and assay offices produced bars with their weight, fineness, and often, dollar value indicated.

My interest and investment in gold and silver is separate from legal tender. The fact that the U.S. stamps $1 on the silver eagle, has no greater relevance than the fact that they stamp $50 on the one ounce gold eagle. The gov't doesn't relate gold or silver to its concept of "legal tender", only (its version of) dollars. So, if they were to issue an edict declaring only (their) "dollars" to be (a) legal tender, would that mean that your "$50" one ounce gold eagle would only be legally good in the world marketplace for $50? Ha! On the other hand, if you try to declare to the IRS your one-ounce gold eagle at a value of $50, that won't fly either (unless gold drops/dollar gains to $50/ounce) Ha!

I would forget the dollar values that are stamped on the bullion coins. After all, the coins are bought for their gold/silver.

And besides, "legal tender" laws are always subject to revision. You'll never beat them at it (recall the gold-clause cases). We're all going to win, but it will be with our gold and silver itself, not due to legal tender edicts.

Cheers.

Mr Gresham

(09/29/2003; 15:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109569)

Fleck making the gold case

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P59638.aspHeadliner on MSN's Money site, most of the basics you already know, but here's the public being given the bait.

DummyANI -- I forgot how you chose that name, but you're the smartest dummy I've ever heard, and our voice from Japan. Thanks for being here.

Boilermaker

(09/29/2003; 15:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109570)

Great Albino Bat (9/29/03; 10:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109553)

I do not have the privilege of hosting a "Great Albino Bat" in my home but I do host a colony of lesser bats, I think Brown Bats. They do keep my farm relitively free from mosquitos and for that I am thankful. I am not so pleased with the guano but such is life.

Do not fear the blackouts my goldbug and bat friend, it is your milieu.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

NEMO me impune lacessit

(09/29/2003; 16:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109571)

Great Albino Bat

You already got four blackouts.
Southern Sweden and capital of Denmark had a total
blackout last week (ca: 5 millions were affected).
Blackout lasted for 6-8 hours.
"They" had a hard time to find out what happened.
Said it was some sort of grid problem.
Nemo

Cavan Man

(09/29/2003; 17:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109572)

Gold and China in Another perspective

But let's look at the big scheme of things. While 400 to 500 tons of gold sounds like a whole lot, it comes to only about $6 billion to $6.5 billion. If the Chinese wanted to kill two birds with one stone, they could tell the G7, "You're done," buy the 500 tons, and give the central banks dollars. In so doing, the Chinese would have valuable gold and a lightened load of dollars, without having pressured the yuan/dollar exchange rate.

Bill Fleckenstein

21mabry

(09/29/2003; 17:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109573)

Silver in dollars

Glenn10 I agree with your post I was just thinking outloud.I cant rember who posted on the 40 % halfs.Do you have to pay a premium to smelt those because of lower silver content? 21

Black Blade

(09/29/2003; 17:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109574)

How Bad Is Unemployment?

Well I just saw a report on record enlistment in the armed forces because the jobs are disappearing. They profiled one young guy with a wife and two kids who enlisted because the factory he worked for closed up shop. Not an encouraging picture on the employment picture but then it is a "Jobless Recovery". Hmmm...

- Black Blade

glennh10

(09/29/2003; 18:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109575)

Re: 21Mabry, Silver in Dollars

I am not sure, but, it could be. For circulated coin, I prefer the 90% over the 40% because you've got more silver per overall bulk and weight. Either way, refining costs might enter in at sell time however, especially if the silver shortages that have been predicted by the silver bugs come to pass, causing the need for melting and refining. I believe that today, the bags of silver coin are trading as is. BTW, have you read "The Big Silver Melt", by Henry Merton (1983)? A good (true) story!

Goldendome

(09/29/2003; 18:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109576)

Black Blade your 109574 on unemployment.

Yes-War is a terrible, but effective way to drive down unemployment. Heck, in WW2 it was driven down so much, that the country even had to put women to work--in the factories...

It's just too bad this country doesn't round up some of the drug addicted, criminal deadbeats, from off of the street corners and send them over to those God forsaken hellholes, instead of always sending the best of our youth.

----Gdome

21mabry

(09/29/2003; 18:49:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109577)

silver melt

Glenn10, I tried to order it at a bookstore but they said its out of print.They can not get it.I have been thinking of buying it of the big web retailer used but really do not know how the used book section works on their site or if its trustworthy.One thing I have read is during the big melt people were not getting the spot price because of smelter back logs.For example when spot was $50 people were only getting $37.A few years ago when Buffet spiked silver our local bullion was paying no premium on silver eagles people brought in.I know there are reasons for these things but sometimes these circumstances are confusing.21

Gandalf the White

(09/29/2003; 18:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109578)

Oh OH !! Those RED "O"'s are BAAAAAAACCCCCCCKKKKKKKKK !!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PI DO NOT BELIEVE IT !
Those THREE RED "O"'x are BACK !
I did not see the drop below $380., but they saw it did !
Perhaps another error !
<;-)

---
Please forgive my POOR memory ! <;-( BUT, I have forgotten whom ask what P&F charts were !
BUT, here is the definition on Stockcharts.com
===
"Prices of entities rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices. Point and figure (P&F) charts are a method of charting prices that tries to identify the prices levels at which these relationships change or have the potential to change. The alerts on our Classic P&F charts are meant to alert you to these changes in the supply/demand relationships."
===
I hope that this helps ! One other thing that is easily see on a P&F chart is that while TIME is one of the two chart axes, it is not scaled !! Time is shown in months in the field of the chart by the months numbered 1 => 9 and the letters A, B & C for the months of Oct. Nov. and Dec. and shown in YEARS on the x-axis.
<;-)

glennh10

(09/29/2003; 19:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109579)

Re: Big Silver Melt

I found the book at the L.A. library.

Great Albino Bat

(09/29/2003; 19:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109580)

Blackouts - not just "accidents"

That does it, NEMO! Thanks for the info on Sweden and Denmark blackouts. (Today I found another site - address not available at the moment - where POLAND was named as probable next victim.)

The blackouts cannot be a series of accidents, ladies and gentlemen. This is deliberate work of sabotage, I no longer have any doubt. It will take some time for most people to come to accept this.

Notwithstanding the fact that the GAB lives in the recesses of a cave and gets around in darkness, there is a generator installed in his home. He is ready for the blackouts.

When the fact that the blackouts originate in Islamic reprisals finds its way into the consciousness of the populations of the USA and other "coallition" countries, fear will strike their hearts.

The GAB is not pleased that millions will be fearful, but this is what these coallition countries have brought upon themselves, by being accessories to US/Israel actions in the M.E.

Fear=flight into gold=higher prices. Beat the crowd - buy now!

the GAB

Sundeck

(09/29/2003; 19:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109581)

Gandalf's Three Red "O"s - Oh No!

Oh no...oh no...oh no!
Not three red "O"s.
...but then no-one knows
if three red "O"s
Are really on the nose,
Or just the way things goes...

Take heart, Sir Gandalf!

Look what happened after the last occurrence of three red "O"s...gold rose and rose from $352 to $392...

Perhaps it is an "O"men?

Ouch!

P.S. The next consignment of roo meat is from big red kangaroos (yes, like on Qantas' tail)...you should see those guys leap! (Don't tell Customs.)

;-)

Sundeck

misetich

(09/29/2003; 20:45:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109582)

Groups sound warning on large U.S. budget deficits

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TC1SEL0TTY5GCCRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3527569Snip:

"The coming decade is likely to rank as the most fiscally irresponsible in our nation's history," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the non-partisan Concord Coalition.

The coalition, along with the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the business-backed Committee for Economic Development, said that official budget projections mask the extent to which the fiscal outlook has deteriorated.

While the Congressional Budget Office forecasts deficits totaling $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years, the groups projected a $5 trillion toll. They said their projection better reflected likely policies, such as the possibility recent tax cuts would be made permanent.

.......................
"We're not talking about something that's going to go away when the economy recovers," Bixby said. "Hard choices are going to have to be made on tax and spending policies."
....................
********************
Misetich

Incredible variance between estimates - and comparatively to the "trillions" of surplus projected only a couple of years ago

To boot they're counting "...when the economy recovers" as ifthe current problems, which have prevented (or preventing)the sought economic recovery... would miraculously disappear, vanish, poof...and the "good old days" of the bull market of 1995-2000 return, resolving all problems

Failure (denial) to understand that the SM bull of the last 20 years or so was fuelled by the building of debt at all levels, consumer, corporate, government

The starting point of debt is not "1980's " any longer but current staggering levels -

The buzz work nowdays is UNSASTAINABILITY of previous/current patterns such as twin deficits, govenrment debt,

Music Maestro please...

Debt To The Penny is currently being reported as being $6.5 + trillions, lets add the projected $5 trillions as noted in the posted article... add some annual interest cost, a little GSE's debt, a touch of State and Municipal Debt, a little dose of Consumer debt, topped by a sprinkling of Corporate Debt and you're assured of a potent debt cocktail that surpasses any other, ready to be served to all those still "dancing" in the Financial Titanic

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

steady

(09/29/2003; 20:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109583)

nice timing

21 marby welcome back almost missed ya.
lets keep our eye on the golden ball!

misetich

(09/29/2003; 20:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109584)

UPDATE 1-U.S. Treasury blasts rumors on dollar policy

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TC1SEL0TTY5GCCRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3527086Snip:

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury spokesman said on Monday that U.S. dollar policy was unchanged, and blasted market rumors cited by traders as a key influence in foreign exchange movements earlier in the day.

The dollar sank in value against other major currencies, touching a three-year low against the Japanese yen.

Traders in New York said one reason behind the dollar's drop was an unpublished report by advisory group Medley Global Advisors that would supposedly criticize U.S. dollar policy cited at a Group of Seven meeting in Dubai last week.

Treasury officials reacted angrily.

"We are not going to respond to every goofy market rumor on currencies," Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said in response to questions. "Of course, there is no change in policy."
***************
Misetich

"Of course, there is no change in policy." -

Treasure department should be reminded, that in English usage, policies are "made" and "implemented" in the same way that decisions are made and implemented. Yet it is possible to have policies that are not or cannot be implemented,

The strong US $ policy can no longer be implemented even if so desired- it is the end of a short lived era. It is only "conceptually alive" in the minds of the Walter Mitty's

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(09/29/2003; 21:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109585)

Central Bank: China Foreign Reserves Rise

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-China-Foreign-Reserves.htmlSnip:

BEIJING (AP) -- China's foreign exchange reserves have risen by nearly 20 percent this year to $364.7 billion, the country's central bank said Monday.
..................

The latest figure was for the central bank's reserves at the end of August, which it said had risen $8.2 billion from the end of July. It represented a 19.8 percent increase from the start of the year
**************
Misetich

Asia's "foreign" reserves of US $ is bloating - The global misalignments continue unabated -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Cytek

(09/29/2003; 21:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109586)

The SUN won't be shinning tomorrow

Sun to Post Deeper First Quarter Loss
Monday September 29, 10:01 pm ET
By Duncan Martell

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Sun Microsystems Inc.(NasdaqNM:SUNW - News) on Monday warned of a larger loss in the current fiscal first quarter than Wall Street had expected, leading it to record a $1 billion tax charge and revise its previously reported fourth-quarter results to show a loss.

Analysts said they were more concerned with signs of weak sales and tough competition in the current quarter than with the noncash charge to fourth-quarter results. Sun's revenue has declined for nine consecutive quarters.

"The tax issue is interesting, but it's more interesting that here's another quarter where they're going to miss revenue and earnings per share," said Dan Niles, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. "The slow bleed continues."

Cytek

Analysts are finally concerned with signs of weak sales, go figure. All i can say is Dan Niles has got it right " The slow bleed continues"..........

neer-do-well

(09/29/2003; 22:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109587)

Bl;ackouts

Could be HARP...could be intentional...could be..could be..maybe?

21mabry

(09/29/2003; 22:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109588)

steady

Steady thnx for the welcome back.I had been letting my school work slip was spending to much time on this sight and the others.I let my studies slip and my first exam showed it.The sad thing is I learn so much more at sights like this than I do at school.Its a shame that all this world wants to see is that diploma.They do not care about what you have learned.21

Gandalf the White

(09/29/2003; 22:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109589)

THANKS, Sir Sundeck !!

Sundeck (09/29/03; 19:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109581)Sundeck (09/29/03; 19:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109581)
===
I told SPOT and SPIKE about the new shipment's projected arrival -- they are salivating !
GREAT observation about the Three Red "O"'s !!
It does look like the exhause flames of a ROCKET !
All we need is the ROCKET !
AND, if your chart reading is correct -- the top of the next run will be +$40. from the $380. --- OR at least $420.
I can accept that !
<;-)

21mabry

(09/29/2003; 22:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109590)

(No Subject)

The minds here at this forum offer a far better education than the university.Its ashame MK can"t offer a degree in PM studies.Im sure with the posters we have here he could get together a faculty.21

Black Blade

(09/29/2003; 23:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109591)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The Silver and Gold Train Wreck

There is not a day or week that goes by that precious metals investing isn't grabbing a headline. Investing in precious metals is going main stream as an asset class. There is growing recognition from the investment community that precious metals and commodities are an attractive asset class that balances out investments in stocks and bonds in a portfolio. Recent studies have shown that investments in commodities can add diversification and help to increase portfolio returns. As an asset class, commodities can run contra-cyclical to asset groups such as stocks and bonds. Over the years commodities generally have a negative correlation with the stock market.

In flooding the markets with money and credit, the Fed has been setting the foundation for the next bull market in commodities, especially precious metals. Gold bullion prices and gold and silver equities have risen for the last three consecutive years. The primary drivers of this new bull market in commodities are monetary debasement and supply and demand fundamentals.

Unlike the last bull market in precious metals during the 1970s, this bull market will be driven higher by supply constraints. During the 1970s, central banks held on to their gold reserves. The U.S. government had a large reserve of silver. That is not the case today. The U.S. stockpile of silver is gone. Central banks have sold off or leased half of their gold reserves if not more. There are no large stockpiles of gold and silver lying around. Central bank vaults are now half empty.

For more than a decade both gold and silver have been running supply deficits. These deficits have been made up by above-ground stockpiles. Central banks have sold off or leased out large quantities of gold from their vaults. In the case of silver, there hasn't been one year in the last 25 years where mine production has been able to satisfy demand. The silver markets are heavily dependent on secondary supply which comes primarily from recycled film or photography. In the case of gold supply, deficits have been made up primarily by central bank sales. Without that supply, gold prices would have risen a long time ago.

Black Blade: Good coverage on precious metals tonight in Puplava's market Wrap Up. I have covered the exploration and development of new mine supply in the past but definitely worth a read again. Note that much of CB gold supply is gone � simply not there anymore. Any CB sales are simply to "clear the books" of nonexistent gold. If it's been loaned out and it can't be returned they must do something about it and that is to call it a sale. Simple enough.

Aristotle

(09/29/2003; 23:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109592)

Clink! -- my dearest ploughman!

As you bust sod on that abominable Equity Gold Trust Form S-1, amendments and exhibits, I'd like to put a special favor to you.

Keep your eyes peeled especially for occurrances of text that distinguish between Allocated and Unallocated holdings. Please report back to us what you see using this patented device which I like to call the "Aristotle Junk Filter."

Thanks in advance, buddy!

To Belgian:

If there's anything I can do to lift your spirits out of the dim depths of "posting fatigue," just say the word and I'll enlist whatever help necessary to procure a ladder and a light or whatever it takes. I think I know the feeling only too well myself so I'm all the more keen to see you through it. I can probably speak for a couple of your friends here that the sooner we can boost you over this parapet the sooner you can in turn give us a hand up for a better look around and prepare for the next stage of the journey.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(09/29/2003; 23:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109593)

134,000 Lost Jobs in August 'Mass Layoffs'

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2082-2003Sep25.html
Snippit:

More U.S. workers lost their jobs in large layoffs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday, another sign that employers are continuing to trim payrolls even as the economy strengthens. The BLS tracks what it calls "mass layoffs," or firings of more than 50 workers in a single month by a single employer, by compiling reports on initial claims for unemployment benefits filed with state agencies. The numbers include temporary and permanent firings. About 134,000 workers lost their jobs in 1,258 mass layoffs nationwide last month, up from the 128,103 employees who were fired in 1,248 such actions in August 2002, the bureau said.

The mass-layoff report is a snapshot of monthly employment changes across the country. Manufacturing took the hardest hit of any sector in August, accounting for nearly a third of all mass layoffs and more than a third of the number of workers who lost jobs, the report said. Job losses were also reported in transportation equipment, textile mills, machinery and food manufacturing.

Lewis Siegal, a BLS senior economist, said the overall numbers are not as bleak as they appear, because in many cases they do not represent "long-term layoffs." He said that 7 percent of the claims, for example, occurred in temporary-help services, and those jobs are, by definition, short-lived. And employment in some industries, such as movies and recording, fluctuates according to production schedules. But some economists say many manufacturing jobs, such as those formerly held by textile-mill workers in North Carolina, are probably gone for good.

Black Blade: Interesting how the BLS dodges the questions and tend to brush off unemployment data that is ALWAYS upwardly revised.

otish mountain

(09/29/2003; 23:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109594)

Sounding the Alarm/Gary North;

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north211.htmlThanks Clink

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 00:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109595)

Midas Crusade

Sir Slingshot began to tell them of his dream. His descriptions could have been of any other Knights Dream who had faced war. After he had finished,Sir M.K. and Gandalf glanced at each other. Then Sir M.K. said, It is time to greet our guest. Sir Slingshot, will you go to the Council Chamber and tell Sir Black Blade we will be there in a short time. Sir Slingshot nodded and proceded to the staircase.
What do you make of that Gandalf? He was too far to hear the words of Omar Khayyam at the gate'said Sir M.K.
Gandalf thought for a moment,reaching inside his pocket to find his pipe. We will see what his dream and the future holds for us all'said Gandalf.
The two men desended the staircase and proceeded to the Council Chamber. They entered the room and were greeted by those already seated at the Oaken Table. There was the feeling of change in the air.
It was then the Ladies of the Court entered,dressed for battle. One by one they entered. Waverider,Leigh,Grateful for Gold,Siochaina,Raven, White Rose,Nahunta,Kasaan and Taryn. They seated themselves at the far end of the table.
Sir Black Blade raised an eyebrow to this display and wondered what was behind it all.

A Knight entered the Room and announced Omar Khayyam.
He too entered being dressed for battle with an honor guard.

Sir M.K. Stood up. Welcome,Omar Khayyam. Please join us at our table and make yourself comfortable.
Omar replied, I accept your hospitality and may this be the first of many that I sit at your table.
Omar, looked about the table and noticed the ladies at the far end. He smiled. He then with his guard sat down at the table.
As I stated before, I come to join forces with you against the Dark Forces'said Omar. He continued. They wish to destroy Gold and make slaves of all who oppose their decrees. Many of our people have been taken with their lies and we are the last to stand against them. They are strong but not unbeatable. We saw you fight on the Northern Plain. Omar turned to the Ladies of the court and turned back to Sir M.K. You have warriors that have heart,and if it was not so, I would not be before you. You believe in Gold and its value to build a better world as do I. We were joined long before this meeting. This is just a formality and if we join forces,conformation of our beliefs.
I come before you at this Table of council to form an alliance against a common foe. What say you? asked Omar Khayyam.
Sir M.K. rose from his seat. All eyes were upon him. He extended his hand across the table and Omar grasped him.
Sir M.K. spoke. I know of your culture and the hardships of your people. If we can put away our differences
and concentrate on our common foe, then we will unite. Can we agree to this.
Omar, holding his hand and looking into the eyes of Sir M.K. said, Then we are Brothers.
Suddenly a cheer that was so loud, filled the castle.
The tension was broken. In an unusal display of confidence, Omar Khayyam move around the table to Sir M.K.'s side.

Do your women always dress like this? said Omar, pointing to the Ladies at the table. Lady Waverider casting a stern look back at Omar's condensending finger.
They can be most ladylike,but I assure you they are warriors and have felt the sting of battle and I have no fear if they would be at my side.
Yes I have seen them'said Omar.
Slingshot-------------<>

DummyANI

(09/30/2003; 02:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109596)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 02:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109597)

DummyANI

Good Morning,
0445 EST. Nice to have you in the in between zone.
Slingshot--------<>

Belgian

(09/30/2003; 03:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109598)

Hoi Ari

Posting fatique,...september blues,...fabricating a garden pond,...whilst a lot of Gold-(related)-Things do happen :

How burning actual are A. Greenspan's "GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM" (gildedopinion) and Tlaga's "EURO AND GOLDPRICE MANIPULATION - I and II" (gold-eagle editorials), Today !!!

- *Serious" Public Gold-Talk (considerations) in Euroland is significantly increasing.
- A lot of attention goes to those, so badly needed, "STRUCTURAL REFORMS", not only for Euroland but globaly !
- The loudspeakers from Hong Kong signal Gold-Accumulation (physical of course) as to offload dollar-paper (Treasuries-?)
- If Spain is the next in the electricity-sabotage,...we can make some serious conclusions ?
- Demographics, unemployment, economic stagnation + debts, consequences of the liberal globalization,...etc, are discussed with an increasing "alarming" tone, again.

Simply : This planet is getting stuck, AGAIN !

Yesterday's wild (intraday) gyrations of the euro (versus dollar) was fascinating . This was happening in a matter of minutes. I look at these floating confetti things, as follows :

How much of your, mine, their confetti is needed to exchange that paper for one ounce of bullion ? One needs more dollar-confetti (380 x1$) for one ounce and less euro-confetti (330 x 1�) for that same ounce of precious ! This is the "REAL",... one and only... "exchange rate" that should be taken into any account. The dollarreserve is devalueing against GOLD ! Other currencies buy much more gold (for less confetti).

The ongoing adjustments-engineering of the dollarreserve's exchange rate (weaker dollar) is NOT going to be of any help to the local/global multitude of needed structural reforms to rebalance/revigourate global economic activity.
The old tricks of weak/strong currency (currencies) and its trade-advantages/disadvantages, will NOT work again as they did before. That's WHY the present Gold-Talk will remain and gain in importance. The ongoing competition for the weakiest currency will turn around in a race for the strongiest currency !!! That's WHY Gold is accumulated in the first place. Wich confetti comes the closiest to... as good as Gold ?

The tired old West (we) has to compete with the rising, vigorous, young East !!! Millions of complacent Western (dividing)workers against Billions of Eastern young eager, ambitious (uniting)wolves.
Not a pretty picture !

Before we (Westerners) lose this race, "drastic" structural changes "must" happen ! Many,...MANY, structural changes !
Monetary reform, Fundamental reform, is certainly one of these structural changes. And here we land (again) on the A/FOA tarmac.
Not in the least when we consider the recent evolvements on oil and the POO ! Russia(India-China)- OPEC-(nuclear)Iran-etc...
Is the global economy in a recession or already heading into a "depression" ? Are the general, engineered, over-valuations (of everything except Gold and oil) a thick smoke screen to hide the real "situation" ? I'm convinced it is as gloomy as I think it is ! This general over-valuation is nothing else but the result of the intrinsic "worthlessness" of the global confetti stashes !!!

Monetary collapses happen when and if the economical animal is degradating. Today, we have a huge globalized economic dragon and not a bunch of little local dragons. That's what so different, today, vis � vis the thirties.
Once the general public catches the Gold-Accumulation-messages from the East,...w're ready for the panicking.

POG's recent "behavior" 392$ > 380$ (2 x 6$) was AGAIN a perfect example (evidence) of how extremely "artificial" the Paper-Gold-Engineers have to compete with the Physical Advocates. Long before the recent Hong Kong Gold messages, A/FOA already knew what was happening overthere ! The first Belgian goldsales (re-distribution) also had a chinese connection (old rumor confirmed)!

The US$-exch.rate, in the process of declining a further 20%-30%, is "playing" a dangerous, * provocative *, game !!! More on this, later...

Thanks, many thanks Ari :-) and kindest regards from a fascinated Gold-student!

silvercollector

(09/30/2003; 03:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109599)

Dollar index getting very close to mid-July lows of approximately 91.9.....

....take that out and we've got our $400 gold!!!

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 04:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109600)

Belgian

Good Morning,
I read your posts day in and day out and many others, only to be frustrated at the intricate twist and turns that
impede or enhance the gold market. In all my analysis I have found, that the stats of unemployment/debt/GNP/Trade deficet/consumer confidence/Pro Forma/and any other factor that one can think of to insert into the equation have no effect.All that that matters is greed. When I say greed, it is those who have money, and move such monies into spheres that produce wealth. For example is it China who sits and waits to gobble up gold placed on the open market. Under this assumption it is the banks outside the Washington Agreement that have control. To a lesser degree, small time investors and major investors that turn their eye to gold as the POG increases.

It may be unobtainable to bring this equation to the lowest common denominator. If I ever can achieve it,I will have achieved my Goal.

Slingshot----------------<>

Caradoc

(09/30/2003; 04:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109601)

Signs of the times

Most every financial advisor has reverted to the traditional wisdom of telling people to have 5% of portfolio in gold. On a more personal front, we goldbugs are now getting delayed responses from those we've talked to over the years. On older stock board forums like Silicon Investor and whatever Raging Bull is now called, there has been an upsurge of chatter about gold and gold stocks. On one newer stock forum called I-Hub, the three newest boards are about gold stocks. Here's snippet from one of these:

***
Why Gold?: Let's start with the supply side of supply/demand. All the gold ever produced would fit into an 82-foot cube cube weighing 10 billion ounces: about 1/3 the volume of the Washington Monument. Further, the 50 million ounces being produced each year would fit into the average living room. http://money.howstuffworks.com/question213.htm Allow for sunken treasure, lost coins & forgotten stashes, a small amount of industrial losses and some percentage of dental gold over the years and you arrive at our present supply of 6 billion ounces: maybe 1/5 the volume of the Washington Monument and less than one ounce per person while world population rises [faster] than the number of ounces.
With less than one ounce per person, post #6 below cites fifteen ongoing fundamental reasons why your 7/8 of an ounce will continue to increase in value whether you choose to lay hands on it or not.
***

The post referred to is this:
***
FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD
BY: JOHN EMBRY, PRESIDENT & PORTFOLIO MANAGER* OF THE SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND. SEPTEMBER 20, 2003

[Originally at the Sprott website, this text was lifted from Sinclair's site under "News Archives" for 24 September 2003]

1.Global Currency Debasement:
The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement which will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise significantly in price.

2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an alternative to paper currencies and financial assets and this will create an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.

3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has been transformed into a yawning deficit, which will persist as far as the eye can see. At the same time, the current account deficit has reached levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other instance in history.

4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US Dollar):
To combat the deteriorating financial conditions in the US, interest rates have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger gold prices.

5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:
US authorities are terrified about the prospects for deflation given the unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing press and will use it to combat deflation if necessary. Other nations are following in the US's footsteps and global money supply is accelerating. This is very gold friendly.

6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand:
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional demand (jewellery, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been filled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary source of above-ground supply.

7. Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years:
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide economic weakness, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past five years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.

8. Large Short Positions:
To fill the gap between mine supply and demand, Central Bank gold has been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which facilitated producer hedging and financial speculation. Strong evidence suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all Central Bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the Central Banks by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.

9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging:
Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufficient contango to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to hedge and gold producers are not only not hedging, they are reducing their existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.

10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial Speculation on the Short Side:
When gold prices were continuously falling and financial speculators could access Central Bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per annum), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Everyone did it and now there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.

11. The Central Banks are Nearing an Inflection Point when they will be Reluctant to Provide more Gold to the Market:
The Central Banks have supplied too much already via the leasing mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern Central Banks who are accumulating enormous quantities of US Dollars are rumored to be buyers of gold to diversify away from the US Dollar.

12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity:
Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise sharply and could reach 500 tonnes in the next few years.

13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold Dinar), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a gold backed peso as an antidote for the financial catastrophe which his country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible currency with gold backing.

14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, the US occupation of Iraq, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing conflict between the US and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to appreciate against the US dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate towards gold.

15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous Leverage:
All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1 trillion US Dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong flow of capital towards gold and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could propel both to unfathomably high levels.
***

Regards to the table,

Caradoc

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 04:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109602)

Caradoc Msg #109601

7/8 of an ounce per person in the world. Last I heard it was 1 oz per person in the world. What happens when its 3/4 or even a half ounce per person. I am not talking about what has been mined, but what is available to be purchased on the market. Come on, Throw some rocks at me.
Slingshot------------<>

misetich

(09/30/2003; 05:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109603)

Census Finds Many More Lack Health Insurance

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19511-2003Sep29_2.htmlSnip:

"Employment-based coverage is getting really expensive," said Kate Sullivan, director of health care policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Either the company doesn't make it available or individuals are turning down coverage at work because they can't afford it. That's very alarming."

The average cost of a family health plan rose from $8,000 in 2002 to more than $9,000 this year and is expected to exceed $10,000 in 2004, said Helen Darling, president of the Washington Business Group on Health, which represents 180 major corporations.
...........................
"All across the country states are experiencing fiscal crisis and a good number are considering cutting their Medicaid programs," said Ron Pollack, executive director of the liberal consumers group Families USA
******************
Misetich

Sign of changes, as corporations "unloadoading" burden is passed on directly to their employees

Trend is alarming - reflecting a deteriorating economy. The falsehood of the famed US economic recovery is showing everywhere - from health to government deficits, to unemployment

The CONfidence game is going to burst, as reality takes a firmer hold of events

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 05:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109604)

Caradoc

Have you come across the most common denomiator? Is there a squeeze between the amount of gold per person that has been mined and the amount that may be available for purchase by the average person? Will that be less than 7/8 ounce?

Come on USAGOLD your monthly purchase has a point in this!

Example What do Central Banks hold.
What is place on the market to be sold.
What is purchased as compared to the sale of gold back in to the market. Percentage wise.Profit taking.

Explanation. If the amount of Gold purchased at the small investor level exceeds the amount available to the market. Then the amount per person decreases. Am I wrong?

Slingshot-----------<>

Black Blade

(09/30/2003; 05:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109605)

mietech - Health Insurance

I did not read the article as I am just quickly checking out some trading info in Asia and early Euroland before catching some Zzzz - BTW, notice the quick $4 spike early in Euro trade? Back to health insurance, the rate of uninsured was about 6% last year and is now nearly 15%. Partly this is due to companies giving up health care plans and the double digit growth in health insurance costs, but the rest is that more simply cannot afford it and are taking the risk that they will get by.

Also, more Americans are out of work and unemployed (roughly 9.2% - actually closer to 12.5%+ counting and adjusting for under employed - Hey, I was a statistician once too and a hell of a lot better than nay at the BLS because I am not fudging the numbers) - The unemployment data will get damn close to Great Depression levels before long. It will get worse in spite of the "Jobless Recovery" (God I love those Wall Street euphemisms for "the market's going to hell in a hand basket" - how creative). Makes me feel a whole lot better (yeah right). Not to worry as it is not counted in the CPI core data much like energy, food, housing, clothing, etc. - you know, the "unimportant stuff" disregarded by Wall Street according to the BLS and Labor Department.

I still keep my health insurance current just as I do Auto, life, etc. and yes, even my "portfolio insurance". It's going bto get very ugly before long. Don't be surprised if the Chicago Manufacturing data is phoneyed up this morning - remember, the Midwest is in a real severe decline as it is heavy in manufacturing and job losses are more severe in this region of the country. Don't discount Daimler-Chrysler's plans to close 5 US auto-manufacturing plants this year and next.

Ah well. back to "golden dreams" for now.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/30/2003; 05:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109606)

slingshot

Black Blade

(09/30/2003; 06:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109607)

slingshot

For those who can't make large gold and silver purchases - think starting a small consistent time ordered accumulation program - "dollar cost averaging". In other words - check out the "small order desk" here at the castle.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(09/30/2003; 06:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109608)

Rumor - Japanese Intervention (Again)

The word is that the MoF through the BoJ sold $2 billion of Yen for dollars this morning but the effects were short lived as currency traders had anticipated the move and took advantage of the MoF generosity at Japanese taxpayer expense once again. Lovely when the Japanese government squanders the peoples hard sweat for a gain for a few wealthy Japanese vultures. The Yen continued to crumble to new lows. Meanwhile smart Japanese are playing along by scooping up gold from retailers as they have been doing since the beginning of the year. The physical marklet is very strong at the retail levels from a couple of sources and hasn't lightened up yet. Beware the spin by the institutional boiler rooms in Tokyo. They have already proven that they are dishonest - they have come a long way since the days of when it would have been a disgrace worthy of ritual suicide. They are becoming more like American Gaijin all the time aren't they?

- Black Blade

slingshot

(09/30/2003; 06:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109609)

Black Blade

Thank you for your response.

My point is the availability of Gold as per ounce per person. Yes there may be 1 oz per person in the world but the availability to purchase may be less than 1 oz. The central banks withhold so much gold, that would not be placed on the open market and so the small investor can not purchase it. So you see all the gold mined may be 1 oz for every person. But not every person my be able to purchase an ounce of gold. The amount may be less.
Slingshot------------------<>

Clink!

(09/30/2003; 06:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109610)

@ Gandalf - A scientific breakthrough !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,POne of my favorites in the world of science is Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. In a nutshell, it states that the act of observing an event affects its outcome. I have seen this in operation many times over the years in the electronics world (eg put a probe in the wrong place and your amplifier turns into an oscillator) but this is the first time I have seen it in clear operation in the financial world. You say that you keep on seeing three 'O's on the P&F chart and give a link. I followed the link last Friday (I think ?) and saw no 'O's ! You said the same yesterday, yet this morning there are no 'O's !! So now we have to consider - which one of us is screwing up the chart, just by looking at it ?!
C!

Clink!

(09/30/2003; 06:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109611)

@ Ari

I made the rash statement before realizing that the main text is 127 pages long ! Ah, well, at least I can try the text search.....
C!

VanRip

(09/30/2003; 06:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109612)

Prudential Regards Underpinnings of Gold Market as Weak

http://finance.yahoo.com/mp#nem(The first part of the paragraph is devoted to downgrading a couple of well known gold stocks and rates a couple of others as neutral.)

However, the........" Firm regards the underpinnings of the gold mkt as weak or unstable as hedge funds or other investors sell and as mining co hedge covering winds down as they close out."

Where do they come up with this stuff? Head scratching doesn't help.

Waverider

(09/30/2003; 07:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109613)

Spot 'n Spike

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1...Gaaandooolf...what did you feed these boys for breakfast...roo meat sprinkled with US fiat?

alkahulik

(09/30/2003; 07:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109614)

Gold

Which way is gold going. Up, of course!! Could it be that $380 was the bottom? I can say that the gold bears are out in force on all the chat rooms (except for this one). I think that the thing to watch out for is "missing the upside!!"

Zhisheng

(09/30/2003; 08:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109615)

@Lady Waverider and Gandalf

Hope all that US Fiat doesn't give Spot and Spike indigestion. Somehow I think they have a long climb ahead of them.

Cometose

(09/30/2003; 08:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109616)

Silver

It looks as though the silver market is having its own word today regarding ....the impact of Digital Photography on the Silver demand worldwide.....

and it's on the rise again inspite of the spanking given to Silver Miners last week....

Looks like a lot of Drama and illusion happened last week in the markets due to KODAK comments and for their benefit...

DID they get what they wanted.....if they were buying CouerD"Aliene or Hecla ......YES!!!

The WEEKLY Charts on these metals look very strong.....

Tim WOOD the DOW THEORIST from Louisiana..... stated over the weekend that last weeks break below 9381 on the DOW did substantial technical damage on the Charts and that this looks like confirmation that we are headed into a Seasonal Cycle low....What is yet to be seen is whether we will break the October Low of 2002.....Considering what is happening in the GOLD MARKETS and in the currency markets re the Dollar on the heels of last weeks meeting in Dubai...
we could have lots of hot air coming out of bubbles soon...

alkahulik

(09/30/2003; 08:08:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109617)

(No Subject)

Too many gold bulls. I hear this a lot lately. Well how about if there were too, too many gold bulls. In fact, so many gold bulls, that there were no gold bears. What if everyone wanted gold. Well, there ain't enough to go around. Got some??

Zhisheng

(09/30/2003; 08:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109618)

Euro Pace

The rise of the Euro over the Dollar these past two days is remarkable. For example, the difference of this morning's high and yesterday morning's low is now more than 3.25 cents (December contract).

This translates into $12.50 increase in the price of gold just to keep the the Euro price of gold constant.

The pressure in the cooker intensifies.

steady

(09/30/2003; 08:29:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109619)

(No Subject)

Z U B A Z O O M Z U B A Z O O M!

Belgian

(09/30/2003; 08:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109620)

The ongoing dollar-decline....

Minute after minute, financial commentators fire their visions (?) about "who" is going to profit (?) from the dollar-decline and who will have to carry the (net) burden.

They see this floating currency circus as an arena with gladiators, where the last man standing is the winner !
The global monetary system is NOT managed (never was) for the benefits of the broadiest number of global participants !!! This creates increasing hostile and destructive, unfair competition. Certainly so when it is always the dollar-gladiator that is the winner and takes it all. Will it be so, again, this time ? I don't think so !

In the old days, people moved to where the jobs could be found. Today, jobs move where the people are and this happens on a global scale now! In the mean time, capital, huge piles of capital, moves and makes artificial waves on wich carry trades of all kinds can surf. THIS IS NOT AN *ECONOMY* ...but a "financial" tower of Babel !!! Or a pathetic/desperate search for profit (any kind of) on debauching capital flows, highly concentrated in the hands of what is percepted as the PTB (economic rulers) .

A further declining dollar plus (forced)zero interest rates, are NOT going to bring the lost jobs back and are NOT going to create new "real" (genuine) jobs in the West (EU-US) !
The job and profit- *quality* are on a constant decline in parallel with the detoriation of the dollar-system and its derivatives (other currencies). The Eastern fortune-makers do know how temporary their windfall might be. Westerners remain complacent about their old power.

The dollar-decline is a too nice word/description for the further ongoing dollar-devaluation (since 1933 > 1971 >...) as to serve the hyper-concentrating expansion of the liberal globalization (oeffff).

Soon the Antwerp (Belgium)dockers (N� 3 port on the world's ranglist) will be unemployed when the ships are allowed to bring their own dockers with them, at 1/10 (and less) of the present handling costs !!! How does one cure, "structually", such an economic (un)reality ??? All our Eastern competitors are NOT going to price themselves out of the global(ized) market(s) ! No way !!! Competitive currency devaluations and job exportations, definitely have their limits. How will or can Japan (second biggest world economy) survive a further appreciation of its currency whilst China (next door) grows at 8%/yr ? What if China swallows Japan !? The East and Far East have much,...MUCH more room for (almost limitless) flexibility than we have, regardless of our currency-maneuvers !!!

Watch the forex-circus at the open now, and see how mega-moves happen and are neutralized (?) within a matter of minutes ! THERE IS SOMETHING ROTTEN IN THE STATE OF DENMARK... W.Shakespeare !

Repeat : Gold will NOT stay out of this in the nearby future !

Waverider

(09/30/2003; 09:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109621)

Noted strategist sees gold bull market

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={6FEFCC80-A7C1-4102-8B07-B962F76BC15A}&siteid=mktwBy Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com

"Noted global strategist Frank Veneroso, in his first published interview since 1999, says the world will see significantly higher gold prices, but with volatility to match. Here are excerpts from my interview this week with Veneroso..."

Gandalf the White

(09/30/2003; 10:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109622)

Sir Clink! --- YOU HAVE MADE MY DAY !!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PClink! (9/30/03; 06:35:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 109610)
@ Gandalf - A scientific breakthrough !
===
THANKS, Sir Clink!
I was hoping the they would realize that they had made ANOTHER error ! FOUR days in a row !! RED "O"'s -- then NO RED "O"'s -- then RED "O"'s again --- and now NO RED "O"'s !!!! They REVISED the low price each day !!
<;-)
---
VERY HARD TO GET GOOD SERVICE nowdays ! THAT is why I deal with the USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals,Inc. people !
THEY have the BEST SERVICE and do not make ERRORS !
BUT, I am the all time LEADER in ERRORS !
I even hold the Major League Record ! (look it up !)
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/30/2003; 10:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109623)

Lady Waverider and Sir Dr. Zhisheng

OOPS, looks as if I got a little bit TOO MUCH VOLATILITY mixed in the food for SPOT and SPIKE today !
---
BTW Sir Dr. Zhisheng -- Did you know that Lady Waverider is working on her PhD also ? Soon, I can call her Lady Dr. Waverider also.
This PROVES that there are LOTS of very smart Goldhearts at the TABLEROUND !
<;-)

Zhisheng

(09/30/2003; 10:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109624)

Touche, uncle, and roll over on my back with paws in the air!

@Gandalf the WhiteMy compliments to Lady Waverider: takes grit.

But Gandalf, if you lay off the "Dr.", I promise, in the name of the Holy Pink-toed Prophet, to never EVER take liberties with your title again.

BTW I hear that eating too much of that still wet newly printed green stuff causes the BLOAT, in canines as well as bovines and homo sapiens.

Gandalf the White

(09/30/2003; 10:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109625)

Sir Zhisheng

I too "Promise" !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(09/30/2003; 11:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109626)

<;-)

JUMP SPOT, JUMP !
near the close -- looking golden !

Belgian

(09/30/2003; 13:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109627)

Misecellany....

...The conventional wisdom of 5% Physical Gold in your Wealth-Bag...
I remember having posted about 100% in Gold...at a much lower dollar-price...
Haven't been lowering that percentage...

What a nice idea to bring a nice stash of Physical Gold " in one particular place" under the ETF paper umbrella. A sitting duck for any kind of confiscary-like measure. The shareholders can keep their paper-gold-share of course ! How smart !?

A. Greenspan (1967) : Under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth !
*** ECONOMIC STABILITY AND BALANCED GROWTH !!! ***
That's what Gold's future is all about. We have landed in an exponentially progressing situation of UN-stability AND UN-balanced growth !!!

...The realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending...(confiscation of wealth)
We have an increasing * CHRONIC DEFICIT SPENDING !!! * And UN-limited expansion of credit...NOWWWWWWWW !

CONFISCATION OF WEALTH...while Westerners (!) are absolutely convinced that they own wealth in/with their paper !!! The Chinese are NOT going to let their "wealth" been taken away under any circumstances or means.

Note how the POO is smartly adjusting to the dollar's weakness and has very, VERY little to do with offer/demand !
Same for the POG.
The dollar's weakness has also nothing to do with its offer or demand. We simply live in a dollar cosmos and there is no such thing as more or less cosmos.
The dollar-expansion (flooding) has already gone beyond directional control.

Japan's interventions (billions) : Selling yen and buying dollar. Under what form are these currencies sold or bought ? Notes...? Treasuries...? Digits...? Who are the japanese counterparties in these interventions ? The markets...? Who, specifically, in the markets...?
What is the "meaning" of a one Trillion $ daily (250 Trillion/year), forex-market, against a world GDP of only 40 Trillion $ ??? And this in a near zero IR environment, here to stay for probably some more time ! I still don't get it and see it nowhere, understandably, explained. The same question goes for the 140 Trillion (notional) on derivatives. Or is it the 44 Trillion dollar liabilities against global GDP of 40 Trillion $ ?

Would it be possible to falsify everything without the derivative instruments (yesterday and today's roller coasters) ? Is that the reason why derivatives are NOT regulated as they should ??? How unconstitutional is the monetization of debt (Treasury buy backs with printed confetti) ???

The POG remains (conveniently) contained, but the POO seems to have more pricing power. This is strange, given the ME situation (dollargrip on oil) as we percept it to be. Has Russia (second to OPEC) become the re-inforcer of OPEC (through Iran and others) ??? Will the Chinese (Far East) become the re-inforcers of Gold ??? Or are they already in the business ?

Federal_Reserves

(09/30/2003; 13:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109628)

Faith in the FED

is going to tank. Too many job losses even as they claim the economy is recovering, the people see the the truth.

The Minstrel's of Greenspan, are starting to sound like the Iraqi Defense Minister. Nothing seriously wrong
with rose colored glasses I guess, but when you have blinders on, at risk is your credibility, which strikes at
the heart of trust we place in the Federal Reserve.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030930/economy_fed_guynn_1.html

The PMI out of Chicago was way off expectations today. Way off. Last week durable goods failed to spark.
Industrial production is slowing along with housing starts. There are no jobs, unless you want to work part-time
at Wal-Mart selling cheap goods from China made by slaves in prison camps. The trade and government deficit
approach banana republic levels at 1 trillion almost 10% of GDP.

A host of weaker than weaker than expected numbers are popping up, like weeds, in the facade of recovery.

Where's the leadership? Where's the plan?

I'm holding gold until I find better.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(09/30/2003; 13:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109629)

Gold priced right to help you build your financial foundation

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(09/30/2003; 14:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109630)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The Bull is back! Even two currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance through the Bank of Japan today could not constrain the Bull on a day of horrid US economic data.

TownCrier

(09/30/2003; 14:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109631)

Another archive prompting from a friend...

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlSome coalescence of thoughts on an important topic.

Today Belgian politely reminded us of the following monkey on our back:

(Belgian msg#: 109620) -- "The global monetary system is NOT managed (never was) for the benefits of the broadiest number of global participants !!! This creates increasing hostile and destructive, unfair competition. Certainly so when it is always the dollar-gladiator that is the winner and takes it all. Will it be so, again, this time ? I don't think so!"

Coincidentally and happily relevent to this same topic I discovered in my email this afternoon a welcome prompting by one of my astute friends to have a look at a two-year old post from FOA'a Gold Trail. Here is the tie-in with today's discussion:

(FOA 10/25/01 msg#125) -- "This whole IMF dollar system has always been based on an expanding fiat theory that swells GDP over time. Investors that bet on deflation coming along, after each of our bouts of inflation, were badly burned as deflation was overcome. Economic function returned, essentially because price inflation could not rout the overall market for long credit.
+
"The flaw in all of this was in the reserve structure of our Dollar IMF money system. The fact that the world had to walk, lock step, with our money policy meant that their goods production would almost always be cheaper than ours; keeping local US price inflation under control. In other words; local US based price inflation could not get out of hand as long as the rest of the world was willing to use their economic production to control it by selling into our expanding fiat system. In this, the dollar could be inflated without end while our credit markets functioned in a non inflationary environment. But there is an end."
---

And with that bridge now built, here following is the post in its entirety. See url given above for access to more.

Bottom line: The more you understand the monetary system as it truly is (rather than as it has been spoon-fed to you by either fringe zealots or mainstream analysts), the more you realize the importance of personal holdings of physical gold to form a significant component of your portfolio.

R.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(FOA 10/25/01 msg#125)
More Thoughts and Comments from the Trail House
Somewhere in the 1970s era I was exposed to the thinking of several different deflationist. It seemed that all of their conclusions came to the same end: that dollar deflation would rule the day, no matter what. Mind you now,,,,,, most of them were split on the finer points of the issue, but for all of them; inflation would have its day even if prices would rise somewhat. Deflation was always the final outcome.

One of the central themes, in these thoughts, was concerning how this coming deflation would impact plain old residential real estate. You see, most of these guys advocates selling excess residential property because it was, sooner or later, going down for the count. Mostly because the mortgage markets would be destroyed in the deflation and nobody could buy.

-- Note: The reader has to understand that these discussions were directed towards people and investors that had plenty of net worth. And I do mean Plenty! The argument wasn't about how to survive; rather how to balance a truly conservative estate portfolio. --

As time has passed we can see several major flaws in their thinking. Flaws that cost them a bunch of credibility, if not personal money. One point, that I have touched on here several times, was in understanding just how much ourselves and our economic structure would and did evolve into accepting fiat money use. Even though it was, "god forbid", separated from gold.

In one area alone, the bond markets, investors reacted far different than deflationist thought they would. Twenty ++ years ago, it was expected that just gross increases in money printing alone would be enough to crash the bond markets. Not talking about price inflation here, but money inflation and that should have started a deflationary fall in our credit markets. It almost happened, several times, but never followed thru. It seemed that the market function had evolved to accept fiat inflation as a prerequisite to modern economic function. In a like comparison to today's thinking; investors assumed that as long as we had an expanding economic stance, sourced by inflating fiat supply, price inflation would not impact long bond credibility. We saw confirmation of this over many years. We saw that our credit markets, especially long bonds, were used in spite of the price inflation threat. Indeed, there was a ready market demand for bond purchases.

In hind sight, long term holders of bonds did do very well if their position was part of a balanced holding and they didn't need to sell at bad times. Even now, dollar bonds have gained as rates are pushed lower.

Back to the thought:

This whole IMF dollar system has always been based on an expanding fiat theory that swells GDP over time. Investors that bet on deflation coming along, after each of our bouts of inflation, were badly burned as deflation was overcome. Economic function returned, essentially because price inflation could not rout the overall market for long credit.

The flaw in all of this was in the reserve structure of our Dollar IMF money system. The fact that the world had to walk, lock step, with our money policy meant that their goods production would almost always be cheaper than ours; keeping local US price inflation under control. In other words; local US based price inflation could not get out of hand as long as the rest of the world was willing to use their economic production to control it by selling into our expanding fiat system.

In this, the dollar could be inflated without end while our credit markets functioned in a non inflationary environment.

But there is an end.

A money system like this has a definite timeline and that point is reached when the world can move away from keeping price inflation low in the US. That point is reached when Another money system comes along to challenge the dollar and, in the process, offer these other goods producing countries a chance to buy some "lifestyle" for themselves.

At first, the show is dull as investors keep right on buying into the dollar argument above: that an expanding fiat base builds non inflationary growth. This is one reason traders still buy US long credit, not to mention chasing rising dollar exchange rates; they expect more of the last several decades of economic theory to keep right on going. It won't.

The dollar faction saw its match early in the 90s as the Euro was taking shape. To counter this threat, as I have outlined here in several ways, they promoted derivative hedges as a way of insuring dollar dominance. These hedges, including gold derivatives, only served to leverage the entire dollar / IMF system beyond its ability to serve as a real fiat money system, today.

I mean; that our whole dollar landscape has now become just a trading asset arena: its now evolving away from any meaningful currency use to trade for real goods. It can head in no other direction because our local economic structure, the USA economic base, cannot possible service even a tiny fraction of the buying power currently held in dollars worldwide.

So what does this have to do with Real estate?

Take a look at any broad section of the US; Northeast, SouthWest, etc.. If any of the deflationist were correct, their reasoning back in the late 70s and early 80s should have produced at least an average fall in Residential real estate. Can any of you find an "average" of property today, that is lower than early 80s prices?

Of course I'm not talking about the spikes in Hawaii, New York , Denver or San Francisco; those are just blips on an ever rising inflation scale. Even if they fall some from here, it isn't part of a deflationary act playing out. Average home prices will rise all across this country no matter what the future economic holds. A super inflationary stance by the Fed means that even unemployed workers can buy a house and pay for it! Watch how this all comes about. The dow will not be much different when seen ten years from now; a drop to 5,000 then off again, is a real possibility! The same is true for anything perceived as something real: "even silver" (grin).

The difference is in the drastic ups and downs derivatives will place on all asset markets. Silver may hit my .50 before taking off and so will many other real assets. My point is that we are on an "end time run" in fiat dollar production that will soon produce a spike in real price inflation that crushes hedge vehicles. One item alone, physical gold, because it is the main wealth asset behing the next currency system, will outrun everything by a wide margin. No matter the derivative's hold on it!

As the Euro builds a base, it will drive an inflationary recognition into our credit markets, then freezing up our derivative markets. That perception will fuel a complete failure of our bond markets and force the fed to buy up any and all credit; paying in full. If needed, Bush and congress will see to it that enough money is printed so we are paid in cash for everything! Don't laugh, this is where we are headed. In the mean time, whether or not our economy is growing, stalling or failing, will have little or no impact on price inflation.

You see, living with real serious price inflation goes something like this:

---- "Honey, I talked to Fred again, he can't sell his house! Poor guy, he has had it up for two years now and has to raise his asking price again. No takers, yet. The last couple was just about to close but took a month too long; they almost got the cash together, too. He backed out to raise the asking price, again. Oh well, that's not so bad, we had to jump ours up three times before selling."
----------
Inflation runs crazy when a money system is forced to "print out". We will "print out" our dollar, too. Getting there just takes time and an alternative system to cause it.

In the mean time look for the premiums on cash bullion and cash coins to begin rising well above contract and futures prices. I have been watching for this confirmation for some time. This one signal is all we need to confirm that a breakdown and total failure of dollar based bullion markets is near. I expect we will hear and excuse like this:

-- The settlement price on future contracts is really a wholesale price. Besides, because we are moving into full cash settlement of gold, without physical delivery, you can take this wholesale price and add whatever premium is necessary to buy your physical gold. No matter that our wholesale settlement cannot match a payment for bullion cost plus premium; just use more leverage to buy more contracts than you need for outright physical. See,,,,, it all plays out! (BIG BROKER SMILE with little horns sticking out of his head) ----------

------------

People, take a hard look at Randy's post on the main forum. His ----# 64186 Monetary choices -- ECB holds rates solid, dumps dollars------- goes a long way to showing the mindset of the Euro system. (thanks for sharing, Randy) This stance is very appealing to a whole host of nations outside our dollar faction world. We have but to look no further than Britain to see that this is true.

------Blair says 2002 EU summit key for euro, economy -----
Thursday October 25, 2:41 PM EDT --

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair said on Thursday the success of the euro and the wider European economy hinged on the EU's ability to push through
long-discussed economic reforms next year.

Blair, launching a Belgo-British conference in London, earmarked the European Union's Barcelona summit next year as a key staging post and said the success of the launch of euro notes and coins was crucial not just for the 12 euro zone members but for Britain too.

"We have an interest in this," he said, stating his policy that in principle his government wanted to join a successful single currency.

"Barcelona will be critical in how the world views the development of the European economy," Blair said.

If the summit is a success, it will help make the euro a success, he said.-----------------

------------

Another thing we can count on and I mentioned this before:

The moment England is seen as even a "virtual" member of the Euro club; the world will jump on every physical ounce of gold available at whatever dollar amounts anyone will part with it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, and sell every paper gold play into the dirt in the process!!

I say, know your dealer, buy your bullion early and watch for this act to begin. It's closer than you think!
------------

Thanks for hearing my thoughts
TrailGuide

TownCrier

(09/30/2003; 14:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109632)

Propping the dollar. How long can the musicians stand to play this tune?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030930/markets_yen_2.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Japan's Ministry of Finance sold yen for dollars on the foreign exchange markets on Tuesday, a ministry official said, acting through the U.S. Federal Reserve in a move that jolted the dollar sharply higher.

"Today we have conducted intervention through the New York Federal Reserve Bank. It is dollar buying and yen selling," the ministry official said.

The decision of the ministry to declare it had undertaken intervention on the same day as it occurred breaks with the approach the Japanese government had adopted for several months of declining to comment.

"It reminds us that the BoJ is still going to be a presence in the market and that they are willing to shift tactics to remind people of that," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist with UBS in Stamford, Connecticut. The BoJ "felt they had to so something a bit more dramatic."

"This makes a mockery of the G7 statement," said Neal Kimberley, senior foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

"What this (Japan's action) also implies is that the U.S. Treasury will not allow the dollar to collapse," said [Fortis Bank's Philip] Capone.

-------(see url)------

At least, not all at once and not without a humiliating struggle.

Physical gold is the logical choice to serve as your principal wealth holding.

R.

Ten Bears

(09/30/2003; 14:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109633)

Belgian 109627

Belgian, thanks for your post 109627. I appreciate your work and have gained considerably by reading your posts. A brief summary of my take on the derivative growth is outlined below.

"Nothing happens in politics by accident". And economics is a subset of politics.

The Exponential growth of derivatives since the early 1970's has been a frequent topic at this site. This post reviews some of the points previously made and hopefully adds a new comment or two.

It is no more an accident that the number and types of derivatives greatly expanded simultaneously with Nixon's decoupling gold from the U.S. dollar than it is an accident that the income tax was initiated simultaneously with the establishment of the latest incarnation of an American central bank in 1913.

The income tax is necessary in a debt money system to pay interest on the created debt and to remove purchasing power from workers in order to keep them subservient. Derivatives are necessary with a purely fiat currency scheme to control commodities (including currencies) pricing and regulate the rate of currency (purchasing power) depreciation. Fiat/debt currency, (loaned into existence), requires perpetual growth in order to survive. Perpetual growth in derivative amounts is necessary in order to continue control of commodity prices.

Imbalances, including surplus purchasing power, have been rotated into various sectors, most recently equity markets in order to absorb surpluses. An example: the multiple billions removed from the baby boomers 401k accounts will keep them working, and paying taxes for a while longer (if they can keep jobs). Many gold advocates expect that excesses are soon to flow to gold and other non-paper investments.

Any system or systems in a finite environment requiring perpetual growth for continued existence, at some point, encounters limits. One may visualize the current debt- money derivative regulated system as an inverted pyramid balanced at the point on the edge of a razor and growing exponentially at the base. Any sustained imbalance will cause it to fall off, one side or the other, and the leverage is continually increasing as derivative amounts are added.

Black Blade

(09/30/2003; 14:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109634)

The Gold Bull Is Back and He Is Ready To Rampage Through Wall Street!

Due to time constraints and soooo much info on the markets and what will push gold and silver into a rampaging Bull was not entirely covered in today's DMR. Probably just as well. But this is not a typical Precious Metals story. Yes, the economic data today was exceptionally grim and with not one - but two interventions in the currency market by the Bank of Japan at the behest of the Ministry of Finance (one in the Asian time zone and again in the New York time zone). In an unusual admission by Japanese monetary authorities, the Japanese "stealth" intervention was applied twice to the tune of over $2 billion dollars helping a slight rally in US Treasuries.

However, this morning I was awakened by a phone call from a friend in the Energy Patch. The injection rates for natural gas have been very strong and should continue to be strong in this "shoulder season". That is due to mild weather ahead of the winter withdrawal season (in another 6-7 weeks), we could have nearly 3 tcf of NatGas in storage. However, this natural gas was bought by utilities at higher prices and the savings will not likely be passed along to consumers should the spot price decline. Now remember we had all time record storage before last winter (over 3.2 tcf) and ended the heating season with all time record lows, and this during an economic recession. Here's where it gets interesting � we will not get anywhere close to last years record storage level and Canada that has helped us out with 15% of our supply over the last few years will not be much help this year as they have their own storage shortfall. Also, Mexico has become a larger net importer of US NatGas. Lat winter was fairly mild to normal as well. Almost every forecasting agency is calling for a colder winter this year and the requirements for storage have grown considerably. We could be looking at another corporate profit killer in the form of higher energy prices.

That said, it has also been revealed that Saudi does not have the 13 million bbl/day production capacity as had been expected. We now find out that they now can only hit 9.2 million bbl/day and that Oman (even with the expertise of BP) are in serious sharp decline in production and they are pulling out all the stops. Now we learn that Iraqi reserves may have been grossly overblown as well, much less than the reported 125 billion bbl of oil. Not only is Iraqi oil infrastructure in disarray and terrorism a growing problem along with attacks on oil pipelines, but the Kirkuk Field oil has to be sent to Ceyhan, Turkey settling tanks due to contaminated oil before shipment. The OPEC quota production cuts may have much to do with declining production and the inability to ramp up production. China has also been on the prowl for oil imports lately along with the Japanese cutting deals with Iran for oil. Keep your eyes on this growing problem in coming months. Meanwhile watch for a fight on Capital Hill over the proposed "Energy Plan" as Republicans push to find a way to delay the inevitable and Democrats fight to delay any possible solutions for political gain in an election year. Should get "interesting".

Even though the US Bureau of Labor Statistics discounts oil (read energy) as being unimportant. The reality is, it is a critical problem that will create some very serious problems for any questionable tall tales about an economic recovery in the US � even a "jobless recovery" that's becoming more jobless all the time. If this winter is normal or worse then it should prove to be very ugly. Now's the time to prepare if you haven't already and protect your investment portfolios with "insurance" � precious metals.

- Black Blade

misetich

(09/30/2003; 15:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109635)

Martin Wolf: A very dangerous game

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059480235461&p=1012571727088Snip:

Asia, in particular, is providing the US with goods and services in return for overpriced pieces of paper. The stock market is expensive, by historical standards, while US long-term interest rates provide little protection against a sizeable devaluation. It is hardly surprising that foreign governments have had to provide substantial funds: between December 1999 and June of this year, world foreign currency reserves rose by $870bn, of which $665bn was in Asia alone.

These transactions allow the world's richest country and sole superpower to spend far beyond its means
..................
This year, according to the IMF, the US national savings rate will be an astonishingly low 13.6 per cent of GDP. The US gross investment rate, though much higher, at 18.3 per cent of GDP, will be below the rate in the eurozone, Japan and newly industrialised Asia, let alone Asian developing countries
................
When gullible foreigners can no longer be persuaded to finance the US, the dollar will decline. Since US liabilities are dollar-denominated, the bigger the decline, the smaller net US liabilities to the rest of the world will then turn out to be. In this way, the last stage of the "conspiracy" will be partial default through dollar depreciation.
..................
Both the providers and the users of the funds have, hitherto, been happy with the world of exploding US foreign liabilities. But the game has to stop.
****************
Misetich

Gullible foreigners will get stuck holding the bag, sort of speak - yet are we to assume that they're really that gullible, unaware, merrily going along the US designed path?

or could it be possible that some of the "gullible foreigners" are ready to pull the rug from underneath the Anglo Axis Superpower?

Lets stay tuned.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

TownCrier

(09/30/2003; 15:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109636)

ECB foreign exchange reserves tell a tale worth hearing

The weekly consolidated financial statement of the eurosystem remains a good study in contrast. Especially, I anticipate, next Wednesday's release which will reveal sizable dollar value losses on one hand with sizable gold value gains on the other. This being the result of the quarterly mark-to-market revaluation operation that takes place today. But we will cover that ground next week.

In the meantime, the statement available today for the week ended September 26th reveals the following.

The net position in foreign currency has been allowed to dwindle in value by another 400 million euro to 195 billion in the natural course of business during the past week. At the same time, there was a 57 euro reduction in the value of reserves in the form of gold and gold receivables due to a 5.3 tonne reallocation "consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 26 September 1999". Yellow(ish) reserves now stand at 119.722 billion euro in value.

Again, today's revaluation, when the extent is revealed next week, will dwarf these figures as insignificant when the dollar's quarterly losses (of two cents; partially offset by yen gains of 7) are set beside gold gains of over 25 euro per ounce.

You too can follow this easy example -- walk "in the footsteps of giants".

R.

Belgian

(09/30/2003; 15:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109637)

American Wealth ?

95 Million Americans (35%) have 6 1/2 TRILLION dollars invested in Mutual Funds ! If 15% of these 6 1/2 Trillion $ should go for Gold...they could buy 5,000 years of Goldproduction (150,000 tonnes), stashed aboveground and valued at 385$/Oz. If it was only 0,15%, they would have accumulated, theoretically, 1,500 tonnes in for instance a panic rally/flush ! Imagine that a majority of these American investors would follow the general advise/wisdom of having 3% to 5% (30,000 tonnes to 50,000 tonnes) of their confetti in Gold-Wealth ?
This very simple math ,illustrates WHY ordinarry folks/savers *MUST* stay away from Gold ! The ETF is a handy *canalization* for an absolute minority that smells a rat and does remember something about the safety of Goldrefuge ! The liberalization of the goldmarket in China is NOT organized with papergold (ETFs) but with the distribution of Physical Gold amongst Wealth savers !!!
And the sun nevers sets on the China continent and no problems are made about the distribution or the holding of Physical in one's fist(s). Are these Chinese (Easterners)dummies ? Idem dito for India and many other regions.

Gold belongs Physically in one's hand and no other form has equal value. Empower yourself with it !

TownCrier

(09/30/2003; 15:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109638)

Eurosystem reserves -- a clarification

Drat. I omitted the word million with respect to the weekly change in gold reserves.

To be clear, while the foreign currecy was down 400 million euro on liquidation, the gold reserves were down 57 _million_ euro on the five tonne sale last week.

R.

Belgian

(09/30/2003; 16:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109639)

Towncrier / Ten Bears

Randy : Fortis (Belgian-Dutch) bank is pulling out of the US ($). They encountered a lot of shareholder's criticism on the motivation/explanation of selling a profitable (!) US enterprise ! How can this Fortis' person state that the US$ will not decline dramatically against the euro, whilst running away from the dollar-block and repatriating for EU internal expansionary investment, where the market for their products has already matured !!!??? Fortis knows much better (iii) than that and has good reasons to pull out of the states and bring the eggs back to Euroland.

Did you heard Tony's (survival) speech, today ? He re-iterated, rather strongly, that the UK should join the EU (EMU) and take a leading role in the EU. I keep on taking Tony with a big block of salt,...but nevertheless liked his (pretended) passion (rationale) towards the EU. This, as a follow up of the actuality on your A/FOA posting.

Isn't it strange, very strange, that the Japanese do make their massive interventions so dramatically public, at present !?
The name Hashimoto ('97 Gold-threath) flashes through my memory. What has Japan done wrong for having to carry a big chunk of the dollar-decline burden ? Is Japan condemned to serve the US($) for ever, due to the unstoppable Chinese force ?

Ten Bears # msg. 109633 : Fully agree with your analyses in the perfect wording.

Dollar/Yen exchange rate might go to as low as 95 (minus 10%-15%) (111 today). But let us remain cautious when there is seemingly a *consensus* on projected targets. How are japanese exports going to compete with the chinese, with the disadvantage of 15% ? Japan cannot use the Gold weapon to lower its yen against the dollar ! Adding to their goldreserves for compensating dollarreserve loses wouldn't work. The Nikkei lost 800 points in the yen rise. Japanese banks face the Nikkei danger zone (sub 10,000), again !

Federal_Reserves

(09/30/2003; 17:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109640)

SM Collapse Path

The Dow could hold 9000 going into OCT 10th, next full moon.

Then the crash.

Trade deficit reported on Oct 10th.

Most crashes come a few days around the full moon.

specie-man

(09/30/2003; 18:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109641)

RE: Hoi Ari

Belgian wrote:
Posting fatique,...september blues,...fabricating a garden pond,...whilst a lot of Gold-(related)-Things do happen :

Interesting - I've been working on a garden pond as well. Moved about 3000 pounds of rock UPHILL today. I can see now how hard it would be to mine for gold using hand tools (without cheap petroleum energy and related equipment).

specie-man

(09/30/2003; 19:14:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109642)

Kodak and silver

Regarding Kodak's recent announcement to go digital -
Could it be that the higher-ups at Kodak know that a sharply higher silver price is imminent, and so that is why they are now "bailing out" ?

Cometose

(09/30/2003; 19:41:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109643)

Specie Man

THamk YOu !

HOW CLEAR it is ..... hiding in plain site.....
I would have never got it if you hadn't SPOKEN it out LOUDLy and CLEARLY....

What you said makes resounding sense logically and plainly.

Smeagol

(09/30/2003; 21:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109644)

A Quesstion, and a trifle

Ssnip from Archives - USAGOLD (05/06/01; 09:48:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 53135):

"In the end, he who owns the gold, makes the rules. And it is the personal ownership of it that will carry the day on a practical level while governments will do, well ...... governments will do what governments do."

The firsst part is verry noble and desirable, yes, but we has a Quesstion - when It becomes Freegold at lasst, will the Law Peoples 'allow' us to own It? At thiss venerable
Table everyone knows It's proper place, but out in the Wilds are Law People that has their own agendas, and FreeGold in peoples' handses represents a loss of control that we expect Them to tolerate? Smeagol sees Law People ssimply 'declaring' It a 'controlled ssubstance', and 'regulating' it 'accordingly' Orc-talk, and not to our benefits, O no! Smeagol has been sstudying the Archives again and notices there is precious little devoted to thiss point. We musst not lose our heads in Its glimmer.

When darker times come and the Fiat Law People change their mind yet again and say ''By our Law, give us your Gold' with steel at our necks, then what will It be
worth? Maybe a lot to big Gold people, yes, but useless as rocks to poor Smeagol, if he can't keep It, or sell It, or trade It, or leave with It for fairer lands, what with the Eyes watching all, to take It, and throw us out into the cold? Looking at recent history it is hard for us to be optimistic. Sss... maybe we are wrong... we certainly hopes so.

...and now for ssomething completely different...

Paper is not alone as Fiat. We counts out fifty US copper-plated zinc tokens and weighs them - 125 gramss (about 4 ounces), sso forty thousands of these tokens weighs 100 kilo-gramss (about 221 pounds). If the copper iss 5% of the total, the value of the metal (we iss generous - 100 cents a pound for copper and 50 cents for zinc) in this pile of tokens is $116.00. Leaving $284.00 of "Full Faith and Credit". Thiss is a choice? (cackle) No, 'tis a GIVEN that we trades this token pile for a single ounce of It in these times!!

S.

Smeagol

(09/30/2003; 21:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109645)

to Cometose and Specie-man

Digital replacing Silver

Yess, we agree in part, but the writing on the wall has been there for ssome time. The ressolution of the newer camera-machines approaches that of Silver-bearing film, at leasst for the likes of us, and will ssurpass it ssoon if hasn't already.

S.

Great Albino Bat

(09/30/2003; 22:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109646)

Doubts about the future growth of digital photography

The GAB suspects that the future of digital, which at present appears so bright, may turn out to be clouded by deteriorating capacity of the market to lay out the cash or credit necessary for the purchase of the related equipment: cameras, computers and expensive color printers.

Film cameras are cheap and development and printing facilites are everywhere, and their services are cheap, and will likely remain so, even if the price of silver were to rise considerably, as the cost of silver in film and prints is a very minor element in the final price of such film and prints to the consumer.

So, the GAB is not entirely convinced that digital will prove to be a substitute that will significantly displace film, going forward.

The GAB

Smeagol

(09/30/2003; 23:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109647)

AAAUUGH! BAAAT!

Wait, Precious, look, it's the Great Albino Bat. Whew! Well met, Great Bat.

Yess, Silver film will sstill be with us for awhile, that'ss why we agreed only in Part to the prior possts. (we sstill uses a camera that lets us do what we wants to the poor film, versuss the new ones that won't do things (ssuch as let one take long exposures of things like Gandalf's rocketss))

S.

Smeagol

(09/30/2003; 23:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109648)

A Riddle (as disstinguished from a Contesst)

We can't make Contessts or mighty blasts on horns like Gandalf, but figures we might ask a ssmall Riddle of the Four Nines Fine People of this Forum, if those Great Ones don't mind, to ssatisfy curiousness. Nobody is obligated to answer! For Riddle purposes, the price of It is set at 385.00 per ounce, Silver at 5.10, and we asks,

Which do you think will double in price firsst, and why?

S.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.