USAGOLD Discussion - September 2003

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

CoBra(too)
(09/01/2003; 05:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 107965)
@ R. Powell -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/bloom083103.htmlWondering, if you've read the silver article by the OZ chartist Bloom. Interesting take, mmh! cb2
silvester
(09/01/2003; 07:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 107966)
Cavan Man (8/31/03; 20:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 107961)
#1 reason to own goldIt does appear that Greenspan is alone at the controls and we know he knows the final outcome. Maybe nobody else wants the job at this time? The wheels might have flew off 10 or 15 years ago had he not been around. Senile or not, is it possible his guidance is responsible for "keeping it going?" Is keeping it going best for most?
Cavan Man
(09/01/2003; 07:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 107967)
silvester
I certainly give the man credit and do respect him. This monetary behemoth guided by "intuition" is what worries me.
mas
(09/01/2003; 07:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 107968)
silvester
Dubya + GSpan = WW3. Sorry off topic but these are the facts.....
You should ask what else they can do to the world, (i.e. complete disregard for the common econonomical problems that they are creating and or the ones they have created which we are now paying for). Same thing? Print, print and then print some more and let every one else pay so the story goes. How long will the rest of the world put up with this?
Can we survive phase II or phase III? Phase II, dollar collapse? Phase III, devaluations of currencies which means less food per month. Phase IV, your guess, riots on the streets?
Got gold?

silvester
(09/01/2003; 08:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 107969)
Greenspan

Yes, follow your thoughts. All this modern technology, computer modeling and such, but here we are again, back to using intuition. On the same terms, in this day of modern hi-tech fianance of unbacked fiat currencies protected by derivatives on top of derivatives, and here we are again, back to using gold. Ha, old wise men and gold. Gotta respect em.

Mas, I don't see the rest of the world or America continuing to put up with the current team. They've taken more than many care to share if we consider the implications of a falling dollar. With a strong dollar we would continue to pilfer at home and abroad but that's changing now. What does the future hold? Disturbing, to say the least.
R Powell
(09/01/2003; 08:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 107970)
Cobra
Yes, thanks, I did see Bloom's article.
He likes those P+F charts that the wizard uses and sees a target of $10.40 for POS.
Why? He mentions the possibilities of inflation and/or a weakening dollar. I notice that he doesn't mention the most reason for a doubling of the POS, physical shortage. No one thinks of the forces of supply and demand when analysing silver. It's so simple!
We know the price of gold is heading higher off the $252 low. Is the silver upside finally upon us? The indicators appear positive.
Happy Holiday to all who observe it (to those who don't, find a reason to create one!)
Rich
Socrates964
(09/01/2003; 09:09:40 MDT - Msg ID: 107971)
The China that can say Yes!
(apologies to Ishihara)

Early morning thoughts - thinking about the Phillipine loan, I wonder if the Chinese haven't got a better use for all those dollars than simply posting them back to the US and watching it collapse under the weight of its own monetary contradictions.

Why not buy the Third World in the currency of its own choice?

To a large degree this is already happening but on a small scale. The Chinese are big buyers of Peruvian iron ore, etc. The Brazilians are eaten up with jealousy, as they don't have access to a deep water port on the Pacific. What if the Chinese were to build it for them in return for 20 years of guaranteed raw materials or whatever?

Have the financial markets factored in what would happen if the IMF turned down Argentina and the Chinese simply turned up with a large cheque book and took over its banking franchise?

I wonder, I wonder. I've also speculated in the past that if you're a Saudi billionaire, you may prefer to leave your money on deposit in Shanghai than Wall Street or Zurich.

My hunch is that all this would add up to a slow controlled devaluation of the US dollar - not too slow, because they would want to limit Uncle Sam's ability to run a tab, and not too fast to ensure that they still get bang for their buck in the tropics.

Evidently, events may overtake this scenario, since even $500bn of accumulated reserves may not be sufficient to put out a derivative conflagration, but I'm nevertheless intrigued by it. Any thoughts?
Paper Avalanche
(09/01/2003; 09:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 107972)
London keeping the lid on - for now
Just took a look at the chart for POG last night and it appears that Asia will buy all the gold that it can at this price. POG spiked almost to $380 only to be ceremoniously walked down to unchanged by the fine folks in London while the COMEX is closed for the holiday.

Putting off the inevitable is the hallmark of a fool.

PA
Melting Pot
(09/01/2003; 11:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 107973)
Last week saw the largest EVER net long position in COMEX GOLD!
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0%2C4057%2C7129030%255E462%2C00.html

Bulls go for gold
By Robin Bromby
September 1, 2003

GOLD seems poised to push even higher with speculators taking a record long position in New York futures trading.

Deutsche Bank has reported that the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange last week saw the largest ever net long position in the yellow metal, rising by 23,500 contracts to 90,000.

Gold on Wednesday pushed to a six-month high through the $US370 an ounce barrier, which, combined with a weaker Australian dollar, enhanced the prospects for producers here.

Gold closed on Friday at $US375.55. Gold bulls now hope that the critical $US400 cannot be far away, and some New York analysts see that as a short-term goal.

Geopolitical tensions are seen as the main trigger for renewed gold strength, followed by concern about waning US dollar denominated assets.

END SNIP

Houston we have conformation of lift off at TOCOM.....

Gold rising on volume and price:

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/01/2003; 11:27:05 MDT - Msg ID: 107974)
A complete gold investment education in 175 pages for only $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

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Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Waverider
(09/01/2003; 12:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 107975)
Gold extends rally as US holiday limits trade
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479464771&p=1012571727143"Unfazed by continuing growth in the number of speculative long positions overhanging the market, gold extended its recent gains on Monday, taking advantage of low volumes in the absence of activity in the US. Thin trading conditions have been a major factor in the week between last Monday's public holiday in the UK and this session's Labor Day break in the US, during which time gold prices have risen by nearly 4 per cent. "The week bounded by these two holidays is usually seen in the financial markets as the last week of summer, and volumes are expected to start to build up again this week," said Rhona O'Connell at the World Gold Council."
Humble Pie
(09/01/2003; 12:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 107976)
Tha ABC of Gold investing
These wonderfull books make perfect gifts to children/anyone who you care about and their future finacial freedom.I just ordered 3 to give to my kids ,I hope they study them very carefully.
21mabry
(09/01/2003; 12:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 107977)
(No Subject)
The U.S. seems to realize they have a big problem in Iraq and are now reversing their stance and inviting the U.N. into help.I have been reading some of Martin Armstrongs writings from the late 90s and many of his predictions were right on the mark.His predictions of the gold market are pretty close he seemed to really know the silver market.He predicted a commodity bull from 2002 till possibly 2012.He called for a gold bull ending in 2007 which would surpass the highs of 1980.Tptb have inflated stocks,bonds,and housing all in turn if you look at the markets left we see commodities which include the PMs.Why could they not now turn to those markets and inflate those into a bubble over the next few years.21
TownCrier
(09/01/2003; 12:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 107978)
Nice price chart of gold's latest wedge busting antics
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlsee url

(excerpts)

...trading patterns also clearly suggest that as well as investment activity driven by concern over external market forces, there is some sizeable technically-driven buying and very possibly defensive (or covering) orders being executed. ...Wednesday's strong close in New York, which was consolidated on Thursday, certainly helped matters on Friday, as did renewed weakness in the US dollar and further nervousness in the bond market.

Gold continues to defy those who caution against the size of the speculative overhang, preferring to take its cue from external concerns -- and also the fact that speculative interest is palpable almost across the board in the commodity sector and gold, while also a currency, is reaping the benefit of the generally metal-friendly environment in the financial markets. The news that the Central Bank of Greece had recently sold 20 tonnes of gold was taken in the market's stride. Although there was an initial cautious reaction, the realisation that the metal had been easily absorbed served to reinforce confidence.

...The US equity markets are generally buoyant, although market views are torn between whether rising interest rates are threatening to undermine stock valuations, and whether the weight of money that has recently gone out of bonds will yet find its way into equities or back into other sectors. ... The bond market remains nervous, with a benchmark ten-year Treasury note yielding 4.47% at the close on Friday, and treasury futures are pricing in another 25 basis point cut in fed funds during the first quarter of next year. The dollar is still under pressure, especially following the announcement from the Japanese Ministry of Finance that it had not intervened in the currency markets last month.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow is in Asia this week, starting in Tokyo, and it is thought that he will call on the Japanese authorities to curb their intervention against the yen, despite the MoF report that there was none in August. The Japanese spent approximately nine trillion yen in foreign exchange intervention between January and July.


The latest Commitment of Traders Report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (week to 26th August) shows that large-scale speculators added over 40 tonnes to their gross long positions, while there was also some short covering as some traders took a view on the price (which at that point was $360/ounce). In the smaller scale sector there were additions to both long and short side positions. The combined net position among COMEX speculators now stands at 426 tonnes long, equivalent to five weeks' fabrication demand (basis 2002 offtake figures from GFMS).

The Chief Executive of the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange in India (NCDEX) has said that the exchange will be operational by October 7th. The exchange is in the process of enrolling an initial 200 commodity traders and trading will take place in 40 centres across India. Meanwhile the Managing Director of the National Multi- Commodity Exchange of India (NMCE) has said that the Indian Forward Markets Commission is currently considering the Exchange's proposal for gold and silver futures contracts. The plans are to launch three-month contracts in 100g of gold and 30kg of silver with price quotes for 10g and one kg respectively.

The Business Standard newspaper of India is reporting that Benchmark Mutual Fund in India is looking to launch an open-ended fund to be listed on the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd, and quite possibly on others. The fund has yet to be approved by the regulators. Each unit will have a face value of Rp 100 (currently equivalent to $2.18, which would buy 0.2g of gold) or the equivalent of one gramme of gold (currently approx Rp 500), and will be issued at a premium equivalent to the difference between the allotment price and the face value.

-------(see url)------

Is that a promise you're holding, or solid gold?

Only gold is "good as gold".

R.
TownCrier
(09/01/2003; 13:08:13 MDT - Msg ID: 107979)
Hats off to everyone laboring on Labor Day
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

see url
21mabry
(09/01/2003; 13:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 107980)
Hang in There
Sometimes when I feel life has got the better of me I like to think of historical figures who failed in life but kept trying and made it.One such person is U.S. Grant.He was an average student at west point fought with courage in the Mexican war although he thought the war against Mexico was criminal.He was forced to resign from the army because of drunkness that plagued him all his life.He went bankrupt several times was thought badly of by his in laws and his own family,but he hung in there and percivered and the hand of fate lifted him up to great heights.So when you feel life has got the best of you keep on keeping on.You never know what tomorrow may bring.21
Cavan Man
(09/01/2003; 14:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 107981)
21mabry
If you're going through hell; keep on going.

Winston Churchill

(Saved a nation. Thrown out of office.)
Great Albino Bat
(09/01/2003; 14:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 107982)
Winnie....he thought very highly of his merits...

Winston S. Churchill; saved "the City", not necessarily the nation. Was thrown out of office for his pains, when no longer useful. Like Bush, Sr.

This $375 number that has given us so much grief: it will be the level which will be all the harder to pierce from above, when we are up over $400, now within striking distance.

Please Sir Gandalf: where do I find a P&F chart for spot silver? Do we have to go to the "EOD continuous contract", isn't there a SPOT silver p&F chart?

TIA!

The GAB
R Powell
(09/01/2003; 14:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 107983)
The correct numbers
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm Melting Pot was kind enough to link an article from finance news.com from which is copied.....

"Deutsche Bank has reported that the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange last week saw the largest ever net long position in the yellow metal, rising by 23,500 contracts to 90,000."

If Deutsche Bank thought 90,000 net longs contracts were worth mentioning, what do you suppose they'd think of the 137,088 net long position held by the speculative class of investors as of 9/26/03! These are futures only contracts and do not include options. I'm somewhat amazed that both Deutsche Bank and financial news.com published the wrong numbers. Either that or my math skills are deteriorating faster than I'd like to admit.
Both of the speculative class of investors holds a net long position so the commercials must now be net short 137,088 contracts! Wow!
Rich

Agingfast
(09/01/2003; 17:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 107984)
GAB: Silver P&F question
How about the chart in the article linked to cb2's message 107965? Good article except for the nonsense about the "Rapture Index."
The Invisible Hand
(09/01/2003; 18:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 107985)
PART II of an attempt at plagiarism and summarising by yours truly

DERIVATIVES

The flourishing on the stock markets at the end of last century of options and other derivatives was a symptom of the fact that in this society, which would be our society, most individuals think that from the moment you have a claim to a tangible thing, you possess that thing, even though there is no way in which that debt could by settled by the debtor through a physical transfer of that thing. Translated into gold terms, this means that so-called gold bugs are not interested in the possession of gold as a hedge in case of monetary disorder, but only in concluding wagers over the gold price in order to pocket the monetary surplus value. In that way, the bullion banks, who had learnt their mischievous behaviour from the central banks, came up with a fourth way to lower the price of gold. Knowing that more than 90% of the counter parties would be satisfied with a settlement of the contract in paper money, or the conversion of the obligation of the hedge fund into an obligation in paper money which involves only money and does therefore not influence the demand for physical gold, the bullion banks just needed to have enough gold available to fulfill the demand of the next real gold buyer. Only to be repeated again and again as the paper system produced another lower value for each new buyer/ owner. Eventually bringing gold to its plateau price today.

This gold market is a completely free market in the sense that the supply of those contracts is almost unlimited and is only limited by on the one hand nine times the gold which can be mined and by on the other hand the costs of mining under which the price of paper gold cannot (be allowed to) fall. The contracts have therefore been offered to anyone who was prepared to conclude such wagers concerning gold price movements and it was not difficult to sell three wagers that gold would decline for every wager that gold would rise.

As long as more than nine tenth of the counter parties were prepared to settle the contracts with paper money, no gold is being displaced on the physical gold market. The only influence it exercises is upon the increased supply of (paper-)gold so that the price of (paper-)gold drops.

Until the day that more counter parties rise who insist upon the gold being actually delivered to them and who are not satisfied with receiving (or paying - if a real lunatic gold bug wants to knuckle down the paper gold market, he can insist upon the gold being delivered to him at the contractual price even though he could theoretically obtain that gold at a lower price on the spot market) paper money. At that moment the paper gold market collapses as the physical gold is not available. The reader will remember the problems caused to the bullion banks in September 1998 when the US central bank had to bail out hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The reason why LTCM was in trouble was due partly to its gold hedges.


WASHINGTON AGREEMENT

Even the politicians realised that paper gold contracts are limited due to the fact that gold cannot be mined at a price below the mining costs. This explains why on Sunday September 26, 1999, 15 European Central Banks concluded the Washington Agreement on the sidelines of an IMF-World Bank meeting. By this Agreement, the politicians wanted to set limits to gold lending. The agreement recognised that gold will remain an important part of global monetary reserves and that the involved central banks will, apart from the sales which have already be decided, not sell gold in the next five years.
Following this Agreement the gold price skyrocketed from $268.4 on September 24, 1999 to $336,5 just before the New York opening on October 04, 1999, thereby bankrupting the gold mines Ashanti Gold of Ghana en Cambior of Canada whose contracts with the bullion banks failed to take a quick and substantial rise in the gold price into account. In one way or another those two mines managed to survive (the former as part AngloGold) and many of their hedges are still in existence, although Reuters reported on August 22, 2003 that the number of gold hedges worldwide was cut by 5.2 million ounces in the second quarter of 2003. Although hedging was cut on a worldwide basis, some Australian producers like Newcrest have increased their hedges at the behest of various bullion dealers, various selling requirements being part of the agreements between these producers and the bullion dealers. In other words, as their hedge books go more underwater and more toxic, the bullion dealers require them to sell more gold as the price rises. What a beauty and potential LTCM-like derivatives nightmare that could be down the road!
The ECB reserves consisted in 1999 for 15 percent of gold and were then, and is still being, marked to market on a quarterly basis. The Agreement expires in 2004, but will probably be renewed on stricter terms between more than the 15 original parties at the IMF-World Bank meeting in Dubai on September 23-24, 2003.

Since the trade balance euroland is, in contradistinction to the American trade balance, positive, it was expected that a rising gold price would support the value of the reserves of the euro and thus the euro itself. And what have the markets taught us? Whereas gold closed in New York on Friday September 24 1999 at $268.4, it closed on Monday, September 27, 1999 at $281.9 and on August 29, 2003 at $375.3 One euro was worth on those dates $1.04658 , 1.04299 en 1.09897, the dollar thus euro 0.956201 , 0.958785 and 0.909947. The gold price has thus increased from euro 256.64 over 270.28 to 341.50

Since the Washington Agreement entire gold operations at international financial institutions have been shut down with more rumored in the works. This reduction of hedging positions has helped lift gold prices. With the present low interest rates, it is indeed senseless for the central banks to continue to lend gold. Those low interest rates will lead within 24 months to inflation for the reserve currency, the dollar. Only this inflation can indeed lower the present debt mountain. This inflation will lead to a further increase in the price of gold which will make the refunding of the borrowed gold by the bullion banks to the central banks impossible. This will force the Federal Reserve Bank of the US of A to declare an official delivery moratorium for the bullion banks in the US of A. This political declaration in the US of A becomes then a market fact, and not a political fact, for the European bullion banks. This market fact enables them to reimburse the gold loans with paper money. The paper money which they have are euros, not dollars. The European central banks who have then lent out gold receive then euros instead of that gold, euros which they then keep in their reserves. At that moment, they know what to do with their superfluous dollar reserves. They buy gold with their dollars at high prices. By throwing dollars at gold, the value of the dollar drops. At that moment the dollar is broke and the euro the sole survivor and this survivor is the new world standard which takes the role of the failed (dollar) reserve currency. In the meantime the oil producing shorts will have been able to obtain all the gold necessary to refund it to the central banks, but the central banks will at that moment be satisfied with receiving euros to the effect that the oil producers will sell their oil for euro.

In Russia, the Middle-East and India, there is an increasing aversion against the dollar and is a search for a replacement under way.

The recent over-subscription in multiples of the IPO of a Chinese gold retailing company going public demonstrates that the gold fever is alive in China. Since early 2003 individuals in China should again allowed to possess gold, although at present, only licensed Chinese companies, mainly producers and banks, are allowed to trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange which opened in January 2003. In the summer of 2003 the Bush government then started complaining about China's exports and pressuring China about "revaluing" its currency its currency. Those afflicted with this gold fever, are investors who understand that in order to be an economic world power by 2012, China could very well accede to this world standard, Freegold. At that moment only physical gold will be traded as the vehicle gold was meant to be used for since the beginning, i.e. the natural vehicle for holding one's wealth. By the same token the value of paper gold will be reduced to nothing, and the value of the euro will increase quarterly upon the marking to market of its gold reserves.

The ECB will not define the euro like the old gold standard as a certain quantity of gold. Instead, it will use gold as a free trading financial reserve so that each increase in the price of gold will bring about an increase in the value of the euro's reserves and thus an increase in the value of the euro itself. This currency concept is closer to the tenets of libertarianism than a gold standard because of the exchange restrictions which inevitably follow a gold standard.

September 01, 2003
The Invisible Hand
(09/01/2003; 18:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 107986)
PART I of an attempt at plagiarism and summarising by yours truly

With Chinese Freegold from a reserve currency to a world standard

At the end of August 2003, the euro, although still above parity, was declining against the US dollar. The press was arguing that economic revival was arriving in the US of A. Europe would however still be slipping further into recession. Nowhere did the press however refer to the fact that 1.17 figure at which the euro started trading on January 01, 1999 against the dollar was nothing but a "nano-second" spurt, more similar to an IPO (initial public offering), relative to almost no actual goods trading. Another reason why this euro decline is no reason to worry for the European Central Bank (ECB) is that the euro wants to take over the role of the US dollar in international trade and wants to transform this role from a reserve currency to a world standard. What should a libertarian think of this? I repeat the question which this short paper tries to answer is: "What should a libertarian think of the euro?" The question is not: "How should I invest my savings?"

Until the birth of the euro, international trade was completely dominated by the US dollar. Since the end of the 19th century, the dollar was freely convertible to gold. Man had however since ages the craving to forge gold and to disconnect money from real gold. President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first to accommodate this craving in 1933 and he retained this convertibility only for foreigners. Americans were ordered to hand in all their gold. President Nixon knew even better in 1971 and he put also an end to this convertibility, then $35 an ounce, for foreigners.

The oil producers from the Middle-East could therefore obtain less gold than before with the dollars received for their oil. Out of love for gold, they were thus forced to increase their prices which caused the first oil crisis. The price of gold rose to over $800 up till 1980. Since then gold has fallen back to $230 and on August 28, 2003 it was sold for $370 at the closing in New York.

Why has the price of gold retreated like that? Is there not enough demand for gold, or, to view it from another standpoint, is there too much supply of gold? No, there is huge demand for gold. If this demand would be allowed have its effects on the price of gold, that price would rise dramatically and this would demonstrate the bad consequences of the policies pursued by the central banks. The central banks started therefore to look for a way to increase the gold supply so that the price of gold would decrease.


FOUR WAYS

The first way in which the central banks tried to influence the price of gold downwards was the outright sale of their reserves. But the central banks realised already before 1980 that gold sales didn't influence the gold price downwards. Their next idea was to convince from 1980 onwards the gold mines to sell their not yet mined gold. The argument given by the central banks to the mines was that they could in that way secure their future income stream. Those sale contracts have been concluded between the gold mines and the bullion banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. The contracts concluded by the former bank had in 2001 as their object every ounce of gold which would be mined in the coming two and a half years (many of those contracts are still in existence.) The bullion banks were prepared to conclude those contracts because the central banks guaranteed the obligations of the mines. This guarantee took the form of granting the bullion banks, who had concluded the forward contract
( = a contract for delivery of gold in the future at a price determined in the present,
a contract under which you agree to either take delivery (if you go long) or make delivery (if you go short) of the agreed amount of the commodity in a stated month in the future)
with the mines, a marketable claim to the gold in the central bank vaults for immediate delivery. The hedge against the obligation of the bullion banks to buy the gold of the mines on the futures market was thus a granting to the bullion banks of a property right to gold on the spot market (in the central vaults) entailing the bullion banks� right to sell that gold on the spot market

By doing this, the bullion banks were able to protect themselves against the risk of loss inherent in this futures gold market position by taking an equal but opposite position in the spot market. This is what hedging, which is a risk-management technique used to protect against loss, is about. Since the spot price of gold is determined by buying and selling on the margin, even a small change in aggregate physical demand could ignite a spike in gold, causing the price to go orbital and disembowel the gold shorts.

For the mines it became necessary to hedge against steep increases of the gold price because in that case, they, in theory at least, deliver gold, at the contractually agreed price which is much lower than the market price.

At that point, gold speculators entered the gold market as participants who, except if they are oil producers, have absolutely no interest in owning or selling gold, but have the money to take on risk -- buying and selling futures contracts in hopes of making a profit. These participants are on the one hand the hedge funds with whom the mines conclude contracts to hedge their obligations and on the other hand the oil producers and others with whom to bullion banks conclude contracts to hedge their obligations.

A third, and last for the central banks, way to hide the bad consequences of their policies, was for the central banks to provide their gold to the bullion banks at the ridiculous (but with the present low interest rates, which signify therefore the death knell of this carry trade, no longer ridiculous) interest rate of 1% pro annum. By selling this gold immediately in the open market and using the cash to finance equity investments, the bullion bank was assured to gain upon refunding the gold, which it had to buy back by selling the equity investments for a price higher than the gold to be purchased, to the central bank. The bullion banks therefore also had an interest in keeping the price of gold low and like the hedge funds, they started indoctrinating the public by saying that gold is no longer an investment vehicle.
R Powell
(09/01/2003; 18:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 107987)
Gains
+$2.50 and +$0.05 !
Oh ya, the +$2.50 is the POG, the nickle is silver
Gandalf the White
(09/01/2003; 18:48:48 MDT - Msg ID: 107988)
GAB's Question !! <;-)
Sorry, GAB, I really have no knowledge of a SPOT Silver P&F Chart easily available ! SOMEONE most likely does keep such, BUT, because as I and all the Hobbits are Goldhearts, far more than Silver lovers, we do most our chart reading in GOLD! We do not eat with GOLDwear, but the silverware is polished once a week by the Hobbit that draws the lucky straw.
<;-)
Cytek
(09/01/2003; 19:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 107989)
The gold cartel - noplace to go , no place to hide
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.aspIn the past, we've covered the technical means of determining where to take some profits during periods of appreciation.

The aggressive investor attempts to sell a portion of his position into strength for either of two purposes: first to profit and thereby mark down the original cost of the remaining two thirds of his portfolio to zero dollars; secondly to reinvest the entire amount in a constant up grade of his position, ending up with a more refined and larger portfolio at the end of the day.

In order to accomplish these objectives I will be constantly informing you of what I see in both the share and bullion markets.

Who Needs to Sell? Actually, only those that are using margin borrowings. All others sell for the above two reasons. This is important to remember so that you do not propel yourself into a mindset that invites sloppy trading tactics.

We in the Community have a view that says we are in a long term bull market in gold and its shares. This is the time to review that conclusion. If you do not agree, then you also need to sell. If you do agree, consider the following:

The Gold Community beat the cartel in gold trading and it can easily beat the cartel in gold share trading as well. We ran the commercial gold short sellers into covering Friday and today in non-US markets. This proves the fallacy of COT and reveals the fundamental weakness of the cartel.

We can put a stop to the cartel's professional market makers who have been trashing gold shares every 8 weeks. Here's a strategy to achieve that objective:

1/ Sell 1/3 of your share portfolio professionally and at optimum prices during periods of appreciation.

2/ Do not use market orders in buying and selling shares because you are now disciplined enough in your order execution. Never place more than 100 shares on a stop order. Use your stop orders only as an alarm clock for notification that a certain level has been hit.

3/ If you feel like buying or selling and are willing to pay up or sell lower, you simply limit your order at the best premium or discount that you will accept. Your broker has an obligation to do the best possible execution. Hold him to that obligation.

4/ And now for the cartel killer: "If you do not get the optimum sales on the 1/3 rule, simply do nothing."

The Gold Community can frustrate the cartel's professional market makers in the exact manner it recently killed the cartel on its short position. Last Thursday, the cartel tried to run Comex futures bulls by hitting the level where stops were expected to be. Each time nothing happened so all the cartel did was increase its short position. The end result was a panic run for cover on Friday and today in non US markets.

Now if you made optimum sales - or in a reaction simply stopped looking at the quotes - you would be amazed how the price structure of gold shares would remain strong.Because people practiced this in 1979-1980, the price of gold shares were higher when gold recovered from $450 to $725 than at $887.50. Think about that and you will see how such a strategy executed individually by Community members would end the cartel manipulation of share prices.

We beat the gold traders last week. We have beaten the ratio trade. Do as I suggest and we will end the manipulation of gold shares and the 8-week cycle dead in its tracks. COT is a fraud that became a self-fulfilling prophecy. You just proved that the biggest boobs in the gold trading business are the commercials unless they are able to bamboozle you.

Now you can get this bull market into gear without interruption by burying the professional market makers. I used to be a professional market maker myself and believe me I know what I am talking about.

Post this article on every chat board and every gold site that will accept it. Tell your friends how to finally defang the cartel and ask them to tell their friends. The Gold Community flexed its muscles last week and took the commercials out. Now flex your muscles in the shares and watch what happens. It is simple! Curtail margin, get optimum sales or do not sell at all.

Any margin trader with brains uses margin in establishing his original position but sells into strength to reduce all margin and finally the entire position. Anyone who holds full margin during share price appreciation is that pig I told you about that will always lose. If you must use margin, then be professional in how you handle it. Any other approach is the action of a maniac who is destined to go bust.

So my dear comrades in arms, here is my suggestion! Sell into strength and if you believe in gold as I do sell nothing into weakness. I always sell into strength in a gold share market. I always buy weakness in gold shares because I am a believer in the long-term bull market in gold based on both fundamental and technical evidence.

Do as I do and even in a declining market gold shares will exhibit an excellent price structure. When gold rises, the shares will move much higher each time than they would do otherwise.
What I'm asking from you today is to join with me and send the cartel straight to where they belong, a place where gold will only run in its liquid form.

With gold heading towards its maximum price potential, I want you to pledge the following:

1/ Sell whatever you chose of your position into strength along the over bought side of the power up trend line in the PUT up trending channel.
2/ If you don't obtain the optimum price that you deserve and that is technically correct, don't sell at all.
3/ Do not chase declining prices when selling a gold share.
4/ Never buy a gold share except during periods of weakness and when technically justified.

For the margin trader the following rules apply:

1/ Use maximum leverage when establishing a position and reduce the margin by one half if the price does not begin to climb within one week of assuming the position.
2/ Reduce your margin by sales along the over bought side of the up trending channel not waiting for a power up trend to take the share higher at an appreciating rate.
3/ Eliminate all margin by sales along the over bought side of the power up trending channel that takes the price out of the original up trending channel.

We have demonstrated already that we can beat the Gold Cartel of Common Interest in gold futures. We have ended the ratio trade. Do as I suggest, and we end the manipulation of gold share prices and the 8-week cycle.

This Gold Community is stronger than the cartel whose past successes have been based on bluffing rather than any particular skill. We will control the cartel if each Community member acts professionally.

When you own them, you are in the long term bull market in gold. You deserve to win. It is your birthright to win and you will win NOW!
MnDan
(09/01/2003; 19:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 107990)
Stalwarts
It appears that the lid is finally going to be pryed off this thing. Bittersweet.
Black Blade
(09/01/2003; 20:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 107991)
A Nice Start
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
Gold is starting the month off with a nice gain so far. Spot jumped above $378.00 an ounce at the start of trade in Hong Kong. I would be fun to see gold hold at these higher levels as the shorts scramble about to cover. However, the Comex and Tocom have been known to change the rules of the game in mid-stroke when it pleases them as they have no concept of such thing as honor. Still, it would be nice to see the market run unhindered with a massive short squeeze.

As some analysts have been quite dismayed that gold has kept running higher with an extraordinary huge spec long position only to see their predictions of a massive sell off met with more buying. Several investment firms and portfolio managers have recently been recommending clients add a position of precious metals to their holdings. If a massive wave of short covering so develop it could get quite "interesting".

- Black Blade
Waverider
(09/01/2003; 20:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 107992)
GAB
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GHere's some Silver guano.....Go to Stockcharts.com and use the search box for continuous Silver. When the continuous silver charts appear, scroll down to P&F. Click P&F and then you can play with the charts. This is the one titled percentage. Cheers,
Waverider
Zhisheng
(09/01/2003; 22:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 107993)
$380 on the December Fututes Contract.
We could easily see $380 cash before London opens.

If the commercials fail, it will indeed be "interesting". Ordinarily one would think that gold would need to go up at least another hundred bucks or so before Comex changed the rules too drasticly. But if the commerials have to run for cover, it will be anything but ordinary.

There are a lot more people involved than just the Hunts this time though, and it likely would require more brass--"fascinating" is what it is.

mikal
(09/01/2003; 23:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 107994)
Spot gold
I'm seeing my source showing spot gold @ $378.80. (+ $3.50)
INO table above, hasn't changed for a couple hours or so. It shows a forward month's price incorrectly.
mikal
(09/01/2003; 23:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 107995)
INO Chart
INO table above just corrected. Now shows $379.00 for the forward month (active contract or month?).
Gandalf the White
(09/01/2003; 23:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 107996)
Sir Mikal
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=f&a=2That INO chart quote is LIVE "ask" price on this LINK !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/01/2003; 23:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 107997)
OOPS --- LIVE SPOT last price !!!
Not a forward Contract Month !
Last was same as the "ask" Price !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/01/2003; 23:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 107998)
INO SPOT chart atop Forum, agrees quite closely with the GB SPOT chart too !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1KEEP JUMPING, SPOT !
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)
Waverider
(09/01/2003; 23:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 107999)
Spot 'n Spike
Gandalf - just make sure that those pups have their helmets on when they hit their head on $380.00 at the NY open!

Black Blade - thanks for giving us a DMR today on a holiday. Safe and happy trails to you and I hope you don't miss too much FUN and ACTION here this week! Cheers!

Waverider
Gandalf the White
(09/01/2003; 23:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108000)
CONGRATULATIONS Sir BB -- Scratch one from the Unemployed Pile !
for today's DAILY "The Afternoon Gold Report" by
-Jon H. Warner-
Note: This will be my last Daily Market Report at least for the next several days as I will be in the field working on a project for a client. Until then - Gold, get ya some!
===
Back to WORK !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/02/2003; 00:29:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108001)
SPOT & SPIKE are all prepared, Lady Waverider ! <;-)
The Rumble in NY will start in about seven hours !
Get ready to ROCK AND ROLL !
Dec COMEX is HOLDING over Sir Z's $380. level at $380.4 at 01:55 NY time !
<;-)
Maverick1
(09/02/2003; 05:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108002)
G the W
My how quickly things change. I knew everyone was too bullish.
misetich
(09/02/2003; 06:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108003)
After Adjustment for Political Reality, Deficit Projections Get Scary
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12314-2003Sep1.htmlSnip:

You may remember something about a projected $1.4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years and dismissive remarks from the White House about how the numbers are unreliable. And there were reassurances from various gurus that these deficits aren't very big relative to the size of our economy.
............

But I've been back at work for more than a week now. So I read the whole report instead of just the summary........................Which I did. First, I counted the $2.4 trillion Social Security surplus, which the Treasury uses to offset its cash shortfall. Then I figured that the last three years of tax cuts will become permanent and that Congress will pass a Medicare prescription-drug package and stop the dreaded alternative minimum tax from hitting 30 million taxpayers. These changes add $3.6 trillion to the deficit. So by the time you're done, the total projected deficit is more than five times the aforementioned $1.4 trillion. Call it $7.4 trillion. And I'm being generous, assuming we spend nothing in Iraq starting Oct. 1, 2005.
................
For fiscal 2004, which starts in about four weeks, the budget office projects a $644 billion deficit. This would be 5.8 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product, which approaches the 6 percent record set by Ronald Reagan's 1983 budget deficit
*********
Misetich

The article writer (Sloan is Newsweek's Wall Street editor. ) does not address the "phoney" numbers of GDP boosted through the use of statistical mirages thus the REAL PERCENTAGE is MUCH MUCH HIGHER than the forecasted 5.8%

... further IF the US economy rebound does not materialize in creating jobs - and all indications are in will not - tax revenues shortfall can be further anticipated and ACTUAL expenditures to MUCH MUCH HIGHER than forecast ( always are)

...and lets not forget ANOTHER deficit (trade)....

all in all it does not bode well for the overvalued US $

If you are a holder of US $ investments how are you going to protect yourself?

...hint..hint (BUY PHYSICAL GOLD, BUY PHISICAL GOLD)

All On Board The Gold Bull Express


Waverider
(09/02/2003; 07:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108004)
China defiant on currency rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm"China's central bank has ruled out a revaluation of its currency just hours ahead of a visit of US treasury secretary John Snow. Mr Snow is touring Asia and has made no secret of the fact that one of his main concerns is the level of the yuan, which is pegged to the dollar at a rate that boosts China's competitiveness in world markets."

Waverider: No suprises here in this climate of competitive currency devaluation.
Melting Pot
(09/02/2003; 07:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108005)
Render unto the Pope...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2003-08-30&id=3450SNIPPET:

Under the constitution for Europe, the EU will have a "Catholic Caesar" presiding over the Protestant monarch. The former Belgian prime minister Paul-Henri Spaak once made a plea for �a man of sufficient stature to hold the allegiance of all people� and added, �Be he God or the Devil we will receive him.� The allegiance of the Queen's subjects is usurped by the demand for allegiance to the suzerain power; a spiritually unifying allegiance which is primary, for without the unity of the demos, the European vision will die. Accession to the constitution for Europe would finally confirm that the United Kingdom yields to the suzerain European Ecumenical Community � an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God. Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.

END SNIP:

�Be he God or the Devil we will receive him.�--Paul-Henri Spaak, former Belgian prime minister

And how will ye protect thyself from the ecumenical Caesar in an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God? Got GOLD?
mikal
(09/02/2003; 08:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108006)
Gold rising
Similar pattern to so many days.
One article today in the China Daily and another on the BBC speak of "firm" Chinese statements on the dollar and yuan.
What else is new? The Chinese are known for their hard-bargaining and will not concede until after negotiations are fully exploited to their best advantage. The most delicate terms, negotiated in closed session, await Bush, who will follow Snow into Asia to "ink the deals". The dollar index will continue to be volatile while rumors and speculation circulate.
admin
(09/02/2003; 08:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108007)
MK's Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

New Stein.

Links to 'Updated Weekly, Monthly Gold Charts.'

MK's Forum Posts 'All in One Place'.

"Over the past 12 months, gold is up a little over 20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average about 11.5%
Gandalf the White
(09/02/2003; 09:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108008)
Thanks Sir Maverick1 !! I needed that ! <;-)
Maverick1 (9/2/03; 05:35:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 108002)
A flagon of COLD WATER in the face quickly brings one back to reality !
One step back, and now the SLOW charge to $390.
<;-)
MK
(09/02/2003; 09:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108009)
Who Remembers This?? From the Gilded Opinion, Appears Prophetic Today
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Connolly.htmlDark Vision for the World Economy

by Bernard Connolly, Chief Global Strategist, AIG

In Bernard Connolly's
Dark Vision for the World Economy,
the new Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse are the
Financial Collapse of the G3,
Political Instability and Unrest,
Debt Repudiation and Default,
and Worldwide Inflation.


Gold may be the best defense.


Editor's Note: Every once in awhile an article comes along by a commentator/analyst who has found the key to a clearer understanding of the forces at work in the world economy. This article by AIG's chief global strategist, Bernard Connolly, offers that degree of insight. The picture he paints is an interesting one. Far from a world moving toward global world government and co-operation precisely orchestrated by the G-3 (Japan, Europe and the United States), Connolly describes a world perilously at odds with itself, fracturing along old pre-World War II fault lines, and heading toward a catastrophic inflation in all three nations -- a circumstance brought by their own inability to reconcile long-standing differences among themselves and the failure of each to come to grips with their own internal problems. In a world of three structurally weak currencies, gold, he says, will be the primary beneficiary because it is the one asset which stands apart from this governmental and central bank currency destruction. We would like to thank theminingweb.com and Mr. Connolly for permission to reprint this important contribution to the current analysis and we highly recommend that USAGOLDers take the time to thoroughly digest it. This article will be a source of discussion and support documentation for some time to come. Beyond that, Mr. Connolly provides some very convincing reasons for gold ownership on the part of citizens in all of the three G-3 nations. MK

--------

Includes links to this Forum's "Dark Vision" posting contest in June, 2002
Waverider
(09/02/2003; 09:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108010)
Global: Do Imbalances Matter?
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030902-tue.html#anchor0"In all my years in this business, I've never come across such a worrisome and potentially lethal confluence of imbalances. For starters, they are global in scope. A lopsided world economy has never been so dependent on one growth engine � the United States. Over the seven-year 1995 to 2002 interval, revised figures now indicate that the US accounted for fully 96% of the cumulative increase in world GDP (at market exchange rates); that's nearly three times America's 33% share in the global economy.

This poses what could well be the crucial question for the macro outlook: Can the global economy continue to derive the bulk of its sustenance from the US? The answer leads to two key issues � America's own imbalances and the potential for the world to uncover a new engine of growth. Insofar as the US is concerned, I remain convinced that it still pays to look at America through the lens of a post-bubble economy. Most disagree, arguing that three-and-a-half years of post-bubble purgatory has been long enough. But time is not the point. Since early 2000, the US has gone through a mild recession and the most anemic recovery on record. Over that same period, America's net national saving rate has plunged to a record low, the household sector debt ratio has risen to an all-time high, and the US current account has gone deeper into deficit than ever. All this smacks of a US economy that is living far beyond its means, as those means are delineated by domestic income generation. Far from purging the excesses of the late 1990s, the United States has upped the ante on structural imbalances as never before. In my view, these imbalances are the real cost of America's so-called macro resilience. They also highlight a persistence of post-bubble headwinds that draws America's future role as an engine of global growth into serious question."

Waverider: An excellent read from Roach today - right on the mark!
CoBra(too)
(09/02/2003; 09:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108011)
"ABC of Gold Investing"
Have come across a post elsewhere stating that Amazon has ABC on its list as being around # 38.000 most bought books, though, when it moves towards the 100 it'll be a gold bull in full swing.

MK, thanks for distributing this great read freely to us USAGold followers.

According to your remarks today, Pierre Lassonde seems to start filling the footsteps of real giants. Mmh, from 450 to 6.500$/oz in a few weeks is a remarkable, if giant step, mentally. Still a wee bit short of A/FOA's 30.000, though getting there - and at that pace, who knows? ;>)

Regards cb2
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/02/2003; 10:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108012)
BULLION to build your base -- available at 1% over our cost, FREE shipping on 25 oz.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Buyers Group Special
Paper Avalanche
(09/02/2003; 10:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108013)
The new "line in the sand"
It appears that TPTB have declared $375 POG to be defended at all costs.

Anyone find the announcment for the futures trading in India suspicious? Another vehicle by which to apply paper price "containment" for out of control physical gold demand?

Hmmmm.....

PA
Cometose
(09/02/2003; 11:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108014)
SILVER MINERS
Interesting to note today , that on a day when silver futures are being wagged and whipsawed that the MINERS are moving up.....Hecla up 9 cents Coere D'Aleine up 2 cents.(11Am mst)...I have to add that it has been in my thinking to regularly remind myself of a recent detail of the last Metals ROUT 79-80 that the there were more days during the upswing in the metals market that were down than there were days when it was up.....Tumultous volatility is being served up here in the futures markets( it would appear) to shake the weak fruit from the weak hands into the hands of strength....
Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 11:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108015)
Paper Avalanche: paper gold trading in India...

Yes indeed, Avalanche, the GAB pointed out this danger a couple of weeks ago. Since TPTB see that India is the world's major gold purchaser, as Indians have a deep respect for gold as a divine symbol, and their culture holds the accumulation of gold as a central value, it is more than suspicious that the RBI - Reserve Bank of India - evidently part of the world "fraternity" of Central Bankers - now consents to the introduction of paper gold trading, for "hedging" etc., for which read: "To wean the people of India off of physical gold, and seduce them via the attraction of GREED, into paper trading of gold, where they will wind up with - papers.

By derailing physical gold purchases into paper trades, there will be more gold available on the market for purposes of holding the price down. Another factor of demand is cancelled, in other words. That is surely the objective. (It may take quite a while for paper to make inroads upon the culture based on physical gold, which is thousands of years old)

The War on Gold is, let's face it, thoroughly evil and anti-human, and is being waged by elements who, whether they know it or not, are enemies of the human race.

Nevertheless, the big paper lie of our times, is doomed to collapse. Reality, and gold, will prevail in due course. Of that, there can be no doubt.

The GAB
Paper Avalanche
(09/02/2003; 12:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108016)
Thanks GAB!
I lifted the following from the news story regarding the furutres exchange in India:

"Gold futures trade may start again after 40 yrs
SURESH SHAH

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 02, 2003 02:03:19 AM ]
MUMBAI: India may resume futures trading in gold after a gap of over 40 years by the end of the current month. Such trading was discontinued after the Indo-Chinese war of 1962 when the Gold Control Act came into effect.

This has become possible with the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) granting the permission for the first time to the Ahmedabad-based National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) for conducting futures trading in gold, silver, wheat and rice.

"We propose to commence futures trading in gold by the end of the current month in the beginning of Navratri festival,"

PA - what I find interesting is the sense of urgency that it must be up and running BY THE END OF THIS MONTH! Combo that with the news last week that the gold bullion security to trade on the London stock exchnage (similar to the one that is trading in Australia) may be approved within a matter of weeks as well and it leads me to the following conclusion:

Both India and the US are prior British colonies, both with long standing ties still to the British banking fraternity. What if the Britsih PTB know of some impending cataclysmic event (read default) on the exchange that has served well in the old colonies? Would they not a) put in place a vehicle by which their citizens could benefit from a meteoric rise in POG (the bullion security) and b) have a ready replacement for the collapsed exchange in their other prior colony?

The always neurotic PA.
Socrates964
(09/02/2003; 12:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108017)
Waverider
Groan! I do disagree with you about Roach being right on the mark.

He is still peddling this argument about the US being the sole source of growth based on $-denominated growth. This confuses fluctuations in exchange rates with real growth in output, and is the sort of thing one expects to find in an anti-European rant on the Heritage Foundation website rather than the considerations of a supposedly serious economist. (well actually, I've never lost money by assuming that anything coming out of Wall Street was intellectually suspect).

Note that this wonderful growth is for the period 1995-2002 - i.e. before the Euro started its ascent.

By the same token therefore, we have nothing to worry about, since the new engines of economic growth will be France, Germany and of course...Iraq, whose currency has appreciated stunningly against the greenback. So there you have it, all it takes to generate a new cyclical recovery is for Bernanke et al. to print greenbacks and turn Europe into an instant economic powerhouse by pushing up the Euro.

And as soon as China revalues, we'll be firing on yet another cylinder. Economic management is dead easy, isn't it?


Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 12:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108018)
Paper Avalanche - India and paper gold

The sense of urgency does come through.

Why now? Why so soon? Why attempts to introduce a Stock Exchange traded gold security issued by a gold fund, in the U.S.? I have also read that such a security is soon going to trade in London.

"Where there's smoke, there's fire."

Something is indeed brewing. Time will disclose the nature of the "gift".

The GAB
Paper Avalanche
(09/02/2003; 13:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108019)
GAB
Agreed, based on the feverish activity by the financial community to get all of the pieces to the global gold puzzle in place by the end of the month, we are in the precipice of something big in the next 30-60 days IMO.

PA

White Rose
(09/02/2003; 13:09:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108020)
The stuff is hitting the fan
I have been thinking that a big event is coming. I have been looking at something else. The silver stocks are very high today compared with the drop of 12 cents of the paper price.

The separation of paper and physical (here I am using silver stock prices as a proxy for silver since there is so little silver to buy) has been taken as a sign that a significant event is close at hand. Of course, I recommend gold as the perfect investment; especially physical gold purchased over a year ago.

I have also noted reports that Bush is having lunch with Greenspan, and the drop in prices for bonds.

What other signs are people seeing that something is up?
Federal_Reserves
(09/02/2003; 13:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108021)
Rates vs Stocks
Re-linked.

Further upward moves in stocks will accompanied by rates.

Stocks surged as rates fell, then paused while rates caught up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TNX&d=c&k=c1&c=^spx&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l

Looks like they linked back up now.

Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 13:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108022)
Socrates964: another "intellectually suspect" concept....

is "GROWTH".

Why on earth must we all focus on "growth"? Seems like this is the modern-day equivalent of going to Heaven. "Growth" is a neurotic fixation among "economists". Growth, as an end, always ends up in excess, in deformations and excrescences. Fiat money enables it.

I think it's an utterly false social objective, a word used for social control. The pseudo-capitalistic version of "Five Year Plans", a substitute for talking about affairs of real importance to humans.

What about objectives such as: being debt-free; earning your way in life; paying your bills.

Happiness is stability, not growth.

Whenever the GAB hears about "growth", he tunes out and turns off.

The GAB




Socrates964
(09/02/2003; 13:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108023)
GAB
Would tend to agree with you - unfortunately most human beings tend to be insatiably greedy and don't realise the error of their ways until all their true wealth has been destroyed.

Anyway, to more mundane matters, S&Ps are banging against the 61.8% retracement at 1022.

Talking to friends in London, the impression I get is that all the hedge funds have had their arms twisted into going long of equities, as they can't take the heat from their clients, who are complaining that long-only funds are outperforming. When this baby turns....

Jacob Marley
(09/02/2003; 13:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108024)
GAB - you ask (partly re: India): Why now? Why so soon?
http://www.bis.org/review/r020326c.pdfNow? Apparently, this is a good time.
So soon? Is it?

The link will take you to a speech by Dr. Reddy, Deputy Gov of the Reserve Bank of India, at a WGC conference nearly 18 months ago. While the whole thing is rather insightful, of particular interest may be the back part of the article.

To paraphrase the paraphraser the other day - "nothing in politics is by accident or chance" - these things are thought about for a long time, and all the time.

Good day, good Sir.
DryWasher
(09/02/2003; 13:55:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108025)
SPRINGBOARD FOR DISCUSSION
OUTLINE FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD MONETARY SYSTEM:

1. ONLY GOLD IS MONEY. By International agreement GOLD would be recognized as the only form of money and all governments, corporations, and individuals worldwide would be subject to this rule. The monetary unit of measure would be the Gold Gram being equal to one gram of fine gold.

2. All governments, and even private corporations, would be permitted to freely mint coins provided they meet strict international quality requirements. All such coins would be marked with the weight, in grams, of the contained fine gold.

3. National governments would be responsible for the quality of coins minted, and in circulation, under their jurisdiction and would be held accountable to the international community for maintaining that quality.

DISCUSSION:

As I see it the above proposed simple system would be almost totally self regulating and would put an end to our current problems of inflation, currency wars, trade balances, etc as well as limiting development and government spending to reasonable and sustainable levels.

Also, as I see it, putting the gold back into the hands of the people of the world, rather than in the vaults of governments, would go a long way toward putting the people back in charge of their lives and of their governments.

I fully understand that no chance at all of anything like the above happening at present exists, but if the entire system crashes, as many people believe it might, then perhaps something along the above lines just might then become a real possibility.

What I hope to accomplish with this post is to start a discussion about the implications, problems, advantages, disadvantages, etc. of the world returning to a true PHYSICAL gold standard as suggested above.

All comments, flames, etc welcomed.
Agingfast
(09/02/2003; 14:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108026)
Typical homeowner better money manager than U. S. Treasury?
The typical homeowner refinanced his/her mortgage when interest rates hit bottom but the Treasury said, "No thanks, we don't need any cheap 30-year money." You gotta love it.
Cometose
(09/02/2003; 15:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108027)
India Gold Futures Exchange / Gold Revolution
There's a book about much of the shenanigans that produced the Federal Reserve Bank and What it's result has been , connections to the IMF / WOrld Bank...and the wonders that they've done around the world....The CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND /EDWARD GRIFFIN

THE People of the Orient are far more spiritual than those from the OCCIDENT and their view of the West may very well derive from a belief that the fruit a tree Produces determines the type of tree that it is .
Now if you look at the WEST ; it is rooted in a BIBLE TRADITION steeped in Judaism and Christianity.....has prospered and industrialized and succumbed to GREED and AVARICE .......and now it looks like its teetering on finanicial oblivion....In a balanced society the Spiritual underpinning in the foundation of the SOCIAL AND MORAL FABRIC should permeate all
Facets of SOCIETY and dominate the fruit produced thereby....Spiritually , the western tree has grafted into roots of GREED AND POWER.....

THE rest of the spiritual world (particularly Hindu's BUddhists and MOSLEMS) views the western world as corrupted and the whole is an evil tree....it's producing rotten fruit......especiall in the venues of politics and banking

TO a large degree, we have born this image in the eyes of the EASTERN CULTURES as a result of the acts of the FEDERAL RESERVE and IMF : Around the world the IMF is well known...
for its' acts that have been instigated "For the GOOD OF MANKIND"....

and now we have another blockbuster nation of over a billion people opening a gold futures exachange right on the heels of the GOLD EXCHANGE opening in CHINA>....

(who knew?)
IT IS A GOLD REVOL(t)UTION......and perhaps a spiritual revolution against sinister stinking situation running out of control.

I also suspect and have heard talk in the last year of a huge COUTERFIETING COMSPIRACY which is going to come to light.....perhaps in a most compelling proof....
Counterfieting : the unauthorized printing of dollars....
behind which there is no backing or value...

should be very intersting to follow the unfolding of this GOLD REVOLUTION as it is being called.....and see the dominoes fall....

I sense more being revealed to us in the near future that has perhaps been sheilded from our view......Looks like a concept war in banking is on the way .....
perhaps many "have not" institutions being swallowed up by the HAVE institutions......

and now in this game of musical chairs I WONDER......

WHO HAS THE GOLD>>>>> and in what banks do they ( the gold bars) live....
Paper Avalanche
(09/02/2003; 15:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108028)
@cometose
"I also suspect and have heard talk in the last year of a huge COUTERFIETING COMSPIRACY which is going to come to light.....perhaps in a most compelling proof....
Counterfieting : the unauthorized printing of dollars....
behind which there is no backing or value..."

Your mention that there is a rumor of a counterfeiting conspiracy about to come to light struck a cord with me this afternoon. I was watching the Travel channel last night and they had a show on at 9:00 pm CST about the Federal Reserve Bank. At the very end of the show they had a two minute piece on the discovery of the "super note" (which is a counterfiet $100 bill) that was being introduced into circulation internationally by some unknown government. They took great pains to point out that the presses used to make the super note were the exact same as those used by the Fed and that only another government would have the where withall to pull off something of this magnitude. Are they possibly hinting at, oh, I don't know, Iran? That would be a terrific justification for a) starting the war with Iran that W needs to get re-elected and b) having something to blame the devaluation of the dollar on.

Food for thought.

PA

Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 15:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108029)
Jacob Marley: thanks for the link!

It confirms my worst impressions.

The deputy governor of the RBI's speech at the WGC is spoken in the best financial-speak. What the speech is all about, is how to gently and oh-so-cleverly, take the Indians gold from them, for the greater efficienty of the financial system and for the benefit of "a capital starved country like India which cannot afford to utilize foreign exchange on a commodity like gold." (Note: gold is a "commodity" according to this guru)

The important entities in the speech are the financial sector and "the country", which means "WE who rule don't appreciate the activity of little unimportant individuals who sabotage our efforts constantly by looking out for their best interests, even to the extent of engaging in smuggling and thus evading OUR rules."

This RBI type was evidently trained in financial-speak at Oxford, Cambridge or University of London. Intellectually VERY suspect.

A rational individual with some knowledge of true economics, i.e. Austrian economics, has to "translate" what this guy is saying, into plain English from financial-speak.

Our Deputy Governor of the RBI has evidently made a brilliant career for himself by means of catering to world finance and its LIES.

The best hope of Indians, lies in the fact that this era is just about over, and their gold - low carat though it may be (all it means is that they bought gold at a higher price!) - is still IN THEIR POSSESSION, much preferable to the "liquid RISK-FREE government securities" which they have the nerve not to accept. Securities issued by a Government which quite recently was on the brink of nuclear war with neighboring Pakistan. How is that for "risk-free"?

Reading this tripe makes this GAB feel sick.

The GAB
steady
(09/02/2003; 15:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108030)
stuff
im no graet thinker, but i do know one thing that all investment vehicles denominated in fiat script are at risk. pretty simple.
even simpler solution use only what small portion of the current system you have to. the rest to physical stuff gold/silver. see the way i see it everyone is a negative unit of account for themselvs but for the banking system they are positive revenu streams. it wont be till individuals become positive( ie no debt ((no revenue stream to the financial institutions))) that an effect will be felt by the bankers. being postive means taking assets minus liabilities and liabilities are anything denominated in paper assets - gold assets. to get to know the true size 'shape ,and weight of your wealth,everything else is just an illusion to get you to feel comfortable in your revenue generating level for the banks.
if u own a house you still have to subtract your monthly/yearly luxury tax ( property tax ) untill we become positve units of account we will remain the bankers bitch 'subject to there whims and fancies'shackled to there corrupt ,use our script under threats of jail time ,while we crank the presses up at full speed where one tiny spark may set the entire house on fire, system ,where keyboard missles are launched daily to corral currency and even gold exchanges(and you thought computer speed was increasing for your pleasure . NOT it he who executes the trades fastewst wins. be aware of keyboard missles being fired daily inthe paper pushing gold slacker pits , still not at regular hours two years latter the comics cause they are a fing joke,paper covers paper but fire refines gold to its illustrious roll and black velvet status that it recieves.
while im at it it wil be what country that gets its citizens to won gold will win as the weight of the many(masses) will out weigh the few(central banks) so what govet will protect its revenue generating streams.its people by getting them to purchase gold,first will win as he who gets gld first has to give up less latter when t comes time to use it.
I think someone once said its better to be a year early than a day late, ie have patience if not for you then for your kids, if not for your kids then for your family clan. this is how wealth was passed down generation to generation, this is how names/families became respected.
signing off while waiting patiently for what has happend to occur.
someone once asked me why i only follow gold/silver and i replyed everything else revolves around it. know gold and you know the financial world even though they try to obstificate the truth.
one day they will start to talk about the dirham .
one day they will start to talk about the historical ratio between gold and silver.when the ratio is back to historical norms 25-10 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold
then we will know ts distribution time. untill silver is in 30 to 1 range it is a screaming long term buy>
gold and silver
HONEST MONEY
for HONEST PEOPLE!


Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 15:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108031)
Dry Washer: your proposals....

May not elicit much discussion, because most (if not absolutely all) of those who post and lurk at this Forum, are in total agreement with what you offer.

Cometose: as you can see from my previous post, I consider that the Futures Exchange in India is a very negative development. Another COMEX, to bash gold in the most pro-gold country in the world. That's about it.

Paper Avalanche: if we are being told about counterfeiting (by which is meant, producing garbage money by someone other than the Fed) it is for a purpose. To blame Iran, or perhaps N. Korea, sounds like a possible explanation. Or if you really want to get neurotic, why not blame it on ...Germany? "They never really stopped being Nazis" etc.

In Ingsoc ("doublespeak"): "Sanity is neurosis", added to Orwell's "1984".

The GAB
Simply Me
(09/02/2003; 16:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108032)
re: counterfeit dollar news
Found this in Google News search, but the link no longer works.
Risky business leading N. Korea to ruin
Daily Yomiuri, Japan - Aug 21, 2003
... In 1997, he was accused of attempting to use counterfeit US notes when he tried
to exchange dollar bills he had been sent from Pyongyang to purchase some ...

a clue?
Simply
Ag Mountain
(09/02/2003; 16:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108033)
Whenever the GAB hears about "growth", he tunes out and turns off.

That's a bad turn. Without "growth" the finely interacting parts of our modern civilization would soon cease to function. Specialization is our species' most miraculous calling card, especially if/when each participant has the freedom to pick and pursue his area of interest. "Growth" is like the spring rains for the, well, growing season of our society. It provides a margin of safety when the water table is too low for new roots. Without it, many critical interactions may fail and the whole crop is lost.

Unless we're prepared to go back to a more primitive tribal existence with a greatly reduced global population and reduced average standard of living, "growth" is worthy of attention. I'd rather be a very skilled baker than a jack-of-all-trades. I wouldn't know where to begin if I had to shoe a horse and grow my own wheat.
Buena Fe
(09/02/2003; 17:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108034)
DryWasher (9/2/03; 13:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 108025)
IMO you are descibing in part the post civilized period dubbed by certain folk; "the millenium", during which a certain "Anointed One" is in charge.

This is after He has beaten the @&%$%#^%$ out of certain hellish hordes.

May you all prosper
CoBra(too)
(09/02/2003; 17:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108035)
Snow's Visit to China
Not succumbing to the joint attack on the Yuan (Renmimbi)to revaluate by John Snow (Sec.Treas.) and Horst Koehler (IMF)
China stood its ground.

"There won't be any change in the exchange rate just because someone is visiting China," a spokesman for the People's Bank of China, the central bank, told Reuters.

We have an expression in Austria: "Da k�nnt ja jeder kommen"! ... almost not translatable, though I'll try in the sense of - "who the hell does he think he is"?

... and what in hell does he hope to achieve? ... except trying to keep up the pretense of confetti having value, if only for a li'l while longer ... Oh, well, that's why it's called a Snow Job! cb2

Paper Avalanche
(09/02/2003; 18:18:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108036)
@GAB - 108031
I believe that the importance of the counterfiet story is to allow the gubmint to blame the coming hyperinflation on a straw man, a "THEM" that we must hate and continue to fight in the never ending war on terrorism. This would be a far better route to take than to admit that the impending hyperinflation was knowingly and intentionally perpetrated by those entursted to oversee the nation's money supply, Le Fed. If they are able to pin it on a certain country, all the better if they can get some expansion of the war so as to a) increase the odds of re-election or b) stimulate the economy during a period of stagflation.

It just makes too much sense.

PA
mikal
(09/02/2003; 18:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108037)
INO table
I see the INO table reset again, asit does every six hours. Thus, the 10yr bond is shown as -8/32 when in fact it was down almost 2 by the close of trading. The 10 yr rate moved up .147 to 4.601% today.
Also, I notice gold and the dollar are moving up in overseas action.
mikal
(09/02/2003; 18:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108038)
@PAvalanche
While your scenario is interesting and possible, I feel a more likely tactic would be to undermine the dollar standard using all available means. This clears the way for a new global monetary system by providing many intractable weaknesses as justification for a total revision. Yahoo had a headline tonight, for example, stating that Iraq could cost the US $26 or $29 billion/yr. Obviously that stretches the system even more. When there are enough stories to stretch the dollar standard credibility from enough corners, it will be torn and returned to the BIS or elsewhere for a new one.
Cor Tauri
(09/02/2003; 18:49:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108039)
GAB re: India DryWasher re: springboards
GAB, I also was disappointed by the scam to securitize the Indian peoples gold. But I think perhaps this will not amount to much. Most of that gold is 22k and around the necks ankles and fingers of the women. Now I know little about India. My wife and I are americans. Cultural perceptions and attitudes can be enormous, but I think we can set all of that aside and consider instead the differences between women and men. I have recently started to make jewelry. Fine and Sterling silver so far. But I want to work in gold. My wife has several 22k bangles that were made in India and she desires more. She expects that I will produce these for here. We have, for our income level, a considerable stash of gold and silver. I have encountered no resistance to taking some of the silver rounds and melting them to form wire and sheet, to form into various things. I have several times suggested that I might melt a Krugerrand and pour it into a rod so as to run it through my roller mill and make perhaps bangles. Upon her face appears instantly a look of alarm, and it becomes apparent to me that I will not be melting any of our gold to make jewelry. I explain how for the time taken to make an item, a gold piece brings a far far higher return. The male concept of return on our investment. She mentions that I have said the dollar will fall, and dosn't see the need to "mobilize" our gold. I suggest we might buy more gold with the proceeds and she points out that a sale is not assured. I have not dreamed to ask if I can melt one of her bangles. It would be most unwise. The male mind seems to want to do something with gold, make it more liquid or sell it at a profit. I wonder if perhaps a womans mind tends to want to make gold less liquid, gold coins are good, rings and pendants are better, you melting it and selling it is simply out of the question. In our household, I am the goldbug, at least I was at first. I suspect that once you give gold to a woman, you will be allowed to see it frequently, but you will never get it back. Call it "deep storage" or "black gold", call it not yours anymore.
I don't think the women of India are going to be in mad rush to crush their exqusite gold jewelry and exchange it for an interest bearing note, or a speculative contract of any sort. Oh, and I suspect that the men of India don't really count when it comes to gold, they buy it, lots of it, but it quickly becomes "not theirs anymore".

DryWasher, I wish you had seen the discussion a year maybe two years ago. It was exactly the discussion you propose.
It was on the "Ideal" monetary system. It ran on and on, and termpers got very short. The primary concept that emerged that made an impact on me is: I want to build a factory, I can't pay for it outright. May I borrow some gold to build this factory. If I can borrow gold, do we not now have fractional reserve banking." It became apparent to me at least that the main problem is not a lack of a gold standard. We could use sea shells, cow chips, or pretty paper notes. The problem seems to end up being the idea of fractional reserve banking. I have 100 sea shells in my account and the bank lends 90 of them to you. I think I have 100, you think you have 90 and the bank thinks its got 2 suckers. If there is one concept that is most destructive, it is perhaps the greed of the bankers. It might be in the archives, it would be very good for you to read it. You will learn alot about yourself and what you believe. Two very powerfull minds took opposite sides of that discussion and cut through all of the fluff to the real issues involved. Both utimatly left the forum. Gold binds us all in common here, but there are some profound differences in mindset regarding the proper role of a monetary system in human affairs.

Best Regards
LeSin
(09/02/2003; 18:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108040)
Saudi Arabia & Russia - "Draft Agreement on Cooperation" - Alliance Changes & New Face of OPEC?
http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20030902120738.shtml
Gov't approves cooperation with Saudi Arabia



RBC, 02.09.2003, Moscow 12:07:38.The Russian government has approved the draft of the agreement on cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia in the oil and gas sector. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has signed a corresponding decree, the Government Information Department reported.

The document envisages the simplification of procedures of creating joint ventures to implement projects in the oil and gas sector, the search for facilities for joint investments and the exchange of new technologies. The governments of the two countries will create a task force for cooperation in the oil and gas sector.

The agreement will be signed in Moscow today during a three-day working visit of Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Resources Ali Ibrahim Naimi, sources in the press service of the Russian Energy Ministry told RBC.
Cavan Man
(09/02/2003; 19:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108041)
NATO who?
Large, slow wheels keep on turning.Belgium stands firm over EU military HQ plans


Belgium insisted Tuesday it is going ahead with plans to open a new autonomous European military command headquarters near Brussels next year, despite opposition from key EU states including Britain.

Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg -- the EU states most fiercely opposed to the Iraq war -- proposed the idea shortly after the conflict, following a mini-summit in Brussels at the end of April.

The plan for a new headquarters at Tervuren, just outside the Belgian capital, was immediately lambasted by leaders from more US-friendly EU states who said it would double-up with NATO.

Diplomats from countries opposed to the move have said they hoped the idea would be quietly forgotten.

But Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt said Tuesday it is still firmly on the agenda.

"The most controversial point... remains that of Europe's capacity to plan and execute European operations autonomously. That is the European military command headquarters," he told a meeting of Belgian ambassadors.

"It is for me an absolute necessity given the existence of autonomous European operations" such as that deployed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the last few months, he said.

"The European Union must be up to planning and deploying such operations. Such an ability will be put in place next year in Tervuren. There cannot be the slightest doubt on this matter," he added.

steady
(09/02/2003; 19:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108042)
GOLD
uh um uh im almost speachless ( two posts in one day) as the french angel, our host unbelivabley gave up for some worhtless paper and even delivered right to my door, is much larger than i imagined, and tre letters on the side of the coin are interesting. the smaller philharmonics are cool to. thanks for being there ( here ) usa gold when i needed you .
gold get u sum so it will be there when/if you need it!

GAB i thought u where a nector bat . one that polinates aguave. for without bats no tequilla.
Cometose
(09/02/2003; 19:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108043)
Campaign to Reelect
I believe that Mr Bush is 50/50 right now.....
The Iraqui business is very ugly in multiple ways and it's getting worse by the day .......it's making him look terribly culpable as a hypocrite and a rogue......THere are not doubt some new suprises coming that will probably be more unsettling to his campaign bid for reelection, but if he goes looking for more trouble in IRAN , I'd wager his ratings will fffffffffffffffaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll precipitously....

The same instability that causes GOLD to go up and Market indexes to go down ....and causes administrations to print money and stimulate economies by going to war......cause inflation .....lets go back and take a look at 76....Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter.....I remember Jimmy Carter was running on the BORN AGAIN ticket not unlike our current ?Christian? president...things went from bad to worse inflation and economy wise.Then Jimmy got in troulble in the Middle East Hostage crisis ...perhaps a little too weak...on the side of assertiveness and diplomacy skills and now we've got GEORGE who is a little overcooked on the agressive side methadrenalin wise ready for WWIII ....this porridge is a little too hot for the American people....
and we have got the economy ready to go into inflation mode in two years on the next president....who probably also won't survive their first term in office...looking better all the time....
Clink!
(09/02/2003; 20:01:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108044)
Growth
I, too, am somewhat perplexed by the almost Grail-like quest towards growth. I think I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago that I could understand the necessity for it in a country like the US which has an expanding population, but is maybe less critical in Europe which has countries with stable or even declining populations. If this were the case, does someone know the rate of population increase in the US ?

But there are two other factors which occur to me (and I must admit to being on shakier ground here - I never took Economics 101). The first is that the economy works on borrowing money which is then paid back from the profits of the business which is created - plus interest. So in order for there to be enough money to pay the principal plus the interest, there needs to be more money, and therefore a bigger economy (assuming that the velocity of money stays more-or-less constant).

The other is that unless you have an expanding economy, how the heck do you expect the PTB to enjoy the beneficial (from their point of view) effects of inflation without it being masked by a growing economy. Screw around with the 'inflation correctors' and other hedonic nonsense and you can make even zero real growth look like we're all going somewhere.

Ag Mountain, I hear what you say and agree with the sentiment, but I don't think that improvements to standards of living necessitate an increase in GDP. As an example, my first PC (back in '86) cost about $2000, which would get me something infinitely better today for the same nominal value. The natural tendancy in manufacturing is to reduce cost or increase functionality (no-one would introduce a new process that didn't have a beneficial effect on one or both of these). So who needs growth ?

C!

PS. Nearly forgot. It was mentioned earlier today that 96% of the world's growth 1996-2002 was in the US. But I didn't see mentioned how the additional debt to finance that growth was distributed.

PPS. Still on growth (sort of). I think that JM Keynes gets a bad rap for suggesting deficit government spending (as in 'We're all Keynesians now'). As far as I have seen, he suggested this only until such time as the country was out of its crisis and could be run on a balanced budget. It's later economists (and politicians) who have re-interpreted this to mean that PERMANENT deficit spending is OK.
Druid
(09/02/2003; 20:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108045)
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
A blast from the past...
"I ask you now: " Is it hard to believe or hard to understand"? When it comes to money it's usually both.

Know this: "gold transcends human valuations thru time and life". . Take your time on this one!

Gold is now caught in a crossfire of world thought. The traders are viewing it as a commodity and trying to make money on it's moves using various paper trading vehicles. Their opinion of the market is flawed because the "real value buyers" would never deal with these people or let anyone in that circle know they are buying gold as "money"! The major buying and selling is between CBs, nations, merchant banks, "the super rich" and the hordes of small buyers in forgotten places. That is one of the small many reasons wall street hates gold, they are not part of the real action. Comex is a side show!"

Druid:...for those who trade paper. I'm a gambling kind of person but man is this environment to uncertain for yours truly. I'll just watch from the sidelines and reach in and grab a sheckel every chance I get while the getting is good. If there is a reset in world thought, there just won't be enough time(unless of course you are in the inner sanctum) to point and click your way to safety.

Physical Gold, make it easy on yourself.



turkey hunter
(09/02/2003; 20:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108046)
Russia buys $'s to buy gold??
http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2003/09/02/49735.htmlsnip......

Commercial bank dealers believe that the main reason for the increase in the dollar rate is that the Central Bank has not hindered the ruble's weakening. Some experts even say that they do not rule out the possibility that the Central Bank has bought dollars today to increase its gold and currency reserves after they dropped considerably last week. ...unsnip....

......
If they did buy $'s to buy gold we could see a spike in gold this week...


steady
(09/02/2003; 20:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108047)
counterfits
re counterfiting,
rember new money is due out this year(supposedly) hints are starting to be dropped,as to why its coming.
contrarian
(09/02/2003; 20:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108048)
snow job
Amazing how the Snowman goes to China, begging for a currency devaluation, and all he gets is a smile and a slap in the face. Very prophetic, I think. I think it's obvious that it would come to that.

And illustrative of the steadily changing state of affairs--a country recklessly spending and printing its way into poverty, and unable to help itself, all the while losing its power.

And the Chinese will smile as they extend us the rope to hang ourselves with. Which we gladly accept.

The idiocy of our leaders is unbelievable. But it seems it's fated to be.
Dollar Bill
(09/02/2003; 21:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108049)
Hail Ruratanaia, while it lasts.
"...We leave the final word to the Financial Times":
---"The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in Asia is unsustainable. The appetite of foreigners to fund US consumption can last quite a while but not forever. At some point the well of finance will begin to run dry, putting downward pressure on the dollar, raising long term interest rates in the US and damping growth."---

"China and Japan effectively constitute the "fuel" that has allowed the US motor to continue to run. But if either of these countries decides to slow down the supply of economic gasoline through their tolerance of ever expanding deficits, the game is over."
Dollar Bill
(09/02/2003; 21:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108050)
*>*............+
Dry Washer, our esteemed poster is right, Oro and Another did cover this at length and it is worthy of discussion now.
My 2 cents might be, a strict gold system has at least one drawback, there are so many billions of us now, and we do need to be able to print up money to aid the neediest around the world.
Rush limbaugh is flabberghasted that republican big boys are all for our present upside down new improved infinite debt economic model. He is way out of touch, he thinks we stand a chance of returning to past "sensible" financial behaviour.
What could be more sensible than getting the rest of the world to make things for us on thier credit card? For as long as it lasts, American homes will continue to be filled with more and more things produced by the rest of the world.
What are they going to do? Come here and claim our houses?
When you know there is no tomorrow, why not spend like there is no tomorrow? Pressing ones advantage is only too human. The war against terror gets all the attention, but the war against the euro, gold, the yen(late eighties),
all the other non reserve currency countries ensnared in debt, against the almighty dollar is the most interesting war to watch. Every poster here is more informed than rush on finance.
Great Albino Bat
(09/02/2003; 21:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108051)
STEADY: thanks for the fascinating info on bats!

One never knows just what is going to show up on this great Forum. So, bats pollinate agave? I am so proud! Tequila is marvellous hooch, best thing for the flu, and just about anything else that ails you. And we bats are indispensable in its production. Well, well! "Negra Modelo" ain't bad, either.

As to "growth" the "Holy Grail" as someone below has called it; let us not confuse real growth with what is said to be growth and is only a by-product of credit expansion, a.k.a. inflation.

Real growth is a product of savings, and in turn produces prosperity. It comes slowly and with great difficulty.

I have stated before at this Forum, that the world is really going backwards, through malinvestment, and that our world is living like a spendthrift that is going headlong into debt to maintain his lavish expenditure. Evidence of this is surfacing in the increasing problems the Welfare States of the world are facing with promised pensions to retirees. The alternative is, either keep 'em working to 82, or inflate. Ask Schroeder.

Cor Tauri: keen psychological insights regarding women's attitude toward gold! Amusing, too. If women ran this world, I'm pretty sure we would not find ourselves in such a horrible mess. I am all for queens, they make great rulers. 90% of the job of building a family falls on the woman. Women can very well run empires too, if they stay away from Harvard and other places of intellectual decay.

Be sure and "buy the dips" on gold!

The GAB



Black Blade
(09/02/2003; 22:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108052)
JOBS: LIARS, DAMN LIARS & STATISTICS
http://www.nypost.com/business/4672.htm

Snippit:

* The experts expect Washington to report on Friday that 10,000 new jobs were created in August and that the unemployment rate held steady at 6.2 percent. Those would be the first new jobs created since last January. But the statistical margin of error for the new jobs survey is plus or minus 156,000, and plus or minus 0.2 percent of the unemployment rate. In other words, 10,000 jobs are meaningless from a statistical point of view.

* The way the unemployment rate is calculated was changed back in January, when it suddenly fell to 5.7 percent from 6.0 percent in December. That decline didn't reflect any improvement in the job market, just a change in the way the government takes its count.

* The government says it gets its new job count by surveying 300,000 businesses. But the participants are not selected randomly or scientifically. And there is no way of knowing how many of these companies reply truthfully to the government's request.

* The average length of unemployment is now 19.8 weeks. It was 12.8 weeks in February 2001. The current level is the highest since it reached 20.4 weeks in January 1984.

� The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks is 1,959,000. Back in January the number hit 2,036,000 - the worst since 1993. As comparison: Back in February 2000 the number of people unemployed for 27 or more weeks was just 708,000.


Black Blade: There are several more but these are among the more interesting. Unemployment is rising but ya just gotta love how the data can be massaged creating the illusion that the economy is somehow improving (at least on government paper).

Black Blade
(09/02/2003; 23:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108053)
China defiant on currency rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm
Snippit:

China's central bank has ruled out a revaluation of its currency despite a visit from the US Treasury Secretary John Snow. Following his meeting with officials from the central bank and finance ministry on Tuesday, Mr Snow said it was "critical" that China moved to a "flexible currency". Kong Quan Foreign ministry spokesman "There won't be any change in the exchange rate just because someone is visiting China," a spokesman for the People's Bank of China told Reuters news agency. But Mr Snow said he told officials that it was in China's own interest to have a more flexible exchange rate. "It's critical that they move to a flexible currency because one sure way to build in adjustment problems in an economy... is to have open capital flows and a rigid exchange rate," Reuters reported Mr Snow as saying. "We expressed our view that it is in China's interest to have a more flexible currency system and it's in their interest to continue the process of opening up capital flows, in and out, reducing their controls on capital." The Japanese support Mr Snow's plea to China. In Tokyo on Monday, Mr Snow and Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said they agreed to encourage, but not pressure, China to let its currency appreciate. "I agreed with Secretary Snow that China should let the yuan float," Mr Shiokawa said, following their meeting.


Black Blade: Snow got snowed as expected. One has to wonder why he wasted his time or maybe it was just a taxpayer sponsored holiday to the Far East for Mr. Snow. Everyone knew the Japanese and Chinese were going to dictate terms to Snow as they hold all the cards and Snow holds nothing at all. Still he probably got to travel and see the Great Wall as well as other sights at US taxpayer expense. Now it's up to the Fed to print dollars like there's no tomorrow to combat this dual menace in the Far East. Bill Clinton's and Robert Rubin's "Strong Dollar Policy" has come home to roost.

TownCrier
(09/02/2003; 23:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108054)
Here it is -- A Special Monetary Discussion
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
DryWasher (9/2/03; 13:55 - usagold.com msg#: 108025)
"What I hope to accomplish with this post is to start a discussion about the implications, problems, advantages, disadvantages, etc. of the world returning to a true PHYSICAL gold standard as suggested above."

Cor Tauri (09/02/03; 18:49 - usagold.com msg#: 108039)
"DryWasher, I wish you had seen the discussion a year maybe two years ago. It was exactly the discussion you propose. It was on the 'Ideal' monetary system. It ran on and on, and termpers got very short. The primary concept that emerged that made an impact on me is: I want to build a factory, I can't pay for it outright. May I borrow some gold to build this factory. If I can borrow gold, do we not now have fractional reserve banking? ... It might be in the archives, it would be very good for you to read it. You will learn alot about yourself and what you believe."

----------------

Expecting the topic and unfolding discussion would prove timeless, I fortunately decided at the time to capture the many inputs, which you may now find conveniently assembled in a thread of discussion at the URL given here.

As stated in the introduction, "This discussion took place beginning February of 2000. It was joined by many fine-thinking individuals who touched upon several important and unique aspects of the interrelation of gold and the monetary system. We hope you gain new perspectives from this convenient collection of this most remarkable discussion."

Enjoy.

R.
Black Blade
(09/02/2003; 23:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108055)
After Adjustment for Political Reality, Deficit Projections Get Scary
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12314-2003Sep1.html
Snippit:

Let's look at the figures that emanated from the Congressional Budget Office last week but seemingly vanished into the haze of late August. You may remember something about a projected $1.4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years and dismissive remarks from the White House about how the numbers are unreliable. And there were reassurances from various gurus that these deficits aren't very big relative to the size of our economy. A fiscal food fight that seems strictly Yawn City. Pass the suntan lotion, dear, let's roll over and bake our other side.

But I've been back at work for more than a week now. So I read the whole report instead of just the summary. By law, the budget office has to assume that existing laws expire as planned, and that no new programs are added or subtracted. This report, however, includes numbers that you can use to adjust for political reality. Which I did. First, I counted the $2.4 trillion Social Security surplus, which the Treasury uses to offset its cash shortfall. Then I figured that the last three years of tax cuts will become permanent and that Congress will pass a Medicare prescription-drug package and stop the dreaded alternative minimum tax from hitting 30 million taxpayers. These changes add $3.6 trillion to the deficit. So by the time you're done, the total projected deficit is more than five times the aforementioned $1.4 trillion. Call it $7.4 trillion. And I'm being generous, assuming we spend nothing in Iraq starting Oct. 1, 2005.


Black Blade: This is similar to a couple of other reports projecting humongous deficits. I think these guys are just a little over optimistic on their projections. The pressure is definitely building. The US dollar is looking very weak now with soaring current account, trade and budget deficits as far as the eye can see. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary John Snow is found on his knees desperately the Japanese and Chinese communists not to "eat our lunch" with currency market intervention and currency pegs. Unfortunately for him he has absolutely no leverage and is operating from a position of weakness. Yet the "competitive currency devaluation" scheme is getting a bit long in the tooth and soon it should be obvious that all currencies are fundamentally weak � period! That pretty much leaves Gold and Silver as the only viable currency.

otish mountain
(09/02/2003; 23:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108056)
Counterfiet Discussion
The counterfiet story may just be a fabrication to introduce to the masses the acceptance of the new currency.
With open arms.
At the same time raise no suspicions of ulterior motives by the government.
Blame and finger pointing at anyone of many nations on a list somewhere, even the war on drugs.
Once accepted by the public through our fine media and introduction is proceeding, move up the redemption time table.
Presto! 6% GROWTH in the 4th Quarter

(shy) otish
slingshot
(09/03/2003; 00:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108057)
Midas Crusade
The audience still showed signs of concern but remained calm as Sir M.K. requested. Gandalf stepped out upon the stage. All was forgotten and every eye was on the Good Wizard. Moving to the center, he did look about the castle walls. Anticipation instead of fear filled the air and Gandalf would not dissapoint them. Raising his right arm toward one of the towers, a loud boom was heard and Golden Smoke Rings floated into the air. As perfect as the ones when he smoked his pipe. The rings passed through each other as they rose into the air. Pointing to the second tower Silvery Arrows burst forth and they too passed through the center of the ring as they drifted directly above the crowd. Then all forms of fireworks filled the air and the dark heavens were illuminated as never before. You could see Gandalf's face glow with enthusiasm as the people
let out ooh's and aahhs at each presentation of light. This fabulous display continue for some time ,but that small as compared as to what he was to show all.
When the last of the fireworks diminished and still standing center stage, Gandalf reached out as to take hold of some object. There was space between his hands. Whispering, he spoke some words and in the heavens above a cascade of falling stars began. So many stars fell that the light was a bright as the display of fireworks. Then a light appeared between his hands and began to glow. The light grew brighter and Gandalf stepped back. This orb of light grew and then began shooting beams of light into the air. High above the castle walls these lights turn into floating objects. Some having even smaller ones that revolved around them. In the center was a yellow ball of flame. Each object took its place and rotated around the yellow ball. Blue,Green,Red, large and small found their proper place. Some had rings around them while others move fast and slow in their path. Then these spheres became smaller and smaller and stars started to fill the night sky.
Swirling and swirling and the people almost became hypnotised at its beauty. In an instant, a flash and Golden Stars rained down on all to disappear above their heads. The people cheered and the August Festival would continue till morning.
Cougar removed his hand axe from the body of the assasin and wiped the blade of his axe on his clothes. Returning it to his waistbelt. Sir Black Blade ordered the body be taken below to the dungeon. Those that came to help did so,leaving the two alone.
How did you know, Cougar? asked Sir Black Blade.
He knew the castle, said Cougar.
The two grasped hands in friendship.
Gandalf exited the stage and was met by a small boy of the age of 10 or 11.
Gandalf, Gandalf, the boy cried. Gandalf looked down.
What was that? What did that all mean? he said. Gandalf smiled and answered. The Universe my good lad and what is your name? asked Gandalf. Galleo, the boy answered.
The merryment lasted throughout the night.
The morning would bring other concerns for a Flag Of Green comes to their door.

Slingshot-----------<>

Storytellers Note: Thank you Gandalf The White, for your help in writing the GREAT DISPLAY OF LIGHT.
slingshot
(09/03/2003; 01:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108058)
I am not afraid!
I purchased both gold and silver today!


I pound my sword against my sheild.

FREE GOLD! FREE SILVER!

I will not be denied!

Slingshot--------------<>
slingshot
(09/03/2003; 02:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108059)
Times Getting Tight
Tell me about your coin dealers. Looks like I'm in a time zone here. Well, fellow Goldbugs.
Let me tell you of my travels today. How about silver ounces at $5.60 and $6.35 an ounce. Gold ounces at $24.00 over spot? Feeling the Squeeze? You bet! Gone are the days of $5.00 silver and below $300.00 gold. Did the dealers budge? No Way! Easy days are over. Its the smart guys buying now and Joe Sixpack has not come on line.

Disclaimer: I have acquired my core of PM's due to the information given freely at USAGOLD!

One dealer made a point, Wait till the Bigshots find out they do not have what they think is in their 401k.


Slingshot-------------<>
slingshot
(09/03/2003; 03:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108060)
Come on Goldbugs
Dollar at 99.14 and Gold at $372.30.

If they abandon the strong Dollar and any hopes of recovery is for the Dollar to go to 72-75. What would be the price of Gold?

Slingshot-----------<>
silvercollector
(09/03/2003; 03:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108061)
Since there were several posts linking China's firm currency position AND in the sake of keeping the playing field somewhat level......
http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3376804snip:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China and the United States agreed on Wednesday that the yuan should eventually float freely, but Beijing resisted calls by the U.S. treasury secretary to speed up the process, fearing it will worsen unemployment.

China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, in comments that struck a conciliatory note but broke little new ground, said the yuan's value would eventually be determined by market forces.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, under pressure at home to push Beijing into a revaluation to save U.S. jobs, said he was heartened China was working toward a free-floating currency.

"On the currency issue in particular, I was encouraged to hear a reaffirmation of China's long-standing goal to move toward greater flexibility," Snow told reporters in Beijing.

Socrates964
(09/03/2003; 05:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108062)
Slingshot
Hard to give you a straight answer, as is a moving target based on inflation.

Evidently, if this gold market has any force, then it will retrace the big move down from $850 to $250. On this basis, we have to think about .618 and .786 targets, which are around $620 and $720 (these are rough figures).

My feeling is that central banks will manage the decline of the dollar. A decline in the index - which is basically the Euro, to 72, is a 38% appreciation of other currencies (Although note historic support around 78-80). Since gold is unlikely to be subject to such trade competitiveness pressures (once it clears $400 to $450, I can't see why the cabal would want to control the price, as the shorts/hedgers will be history), I expect it to appreciate by a multiplier of this, probably more than 1 and probably less than 2, based on past behaviour. If we take 60% as a round number, then you have a figure of around $590.

This evidently assumes that the rest of the world colludes with the US in keeping the plates spinning in the air. If they don't, then we'll see hyperinflation and gold prices in the '000s.

Having lived under hyperinflationary regimes, I can tell you that you probably have more purchasing power with gold at $600 and moderate increases in the price level than you do with gold at $5,000 and galloping inflation. If the latter occurs, then you could have gold at $1m/oz, although a Big Mac would cost you $1,000.

People who haven't experienced hyperinflation tend to have the bad mental habit of thinking that paper money has some absolute value. It doesn't. Everyone on this site should start thinking about their net worth in gold bars. If you think metrically, it's nice and easy, as a kilo bar is worth $12,000.

E.g.

WRONG: He has a net worth of $1.2 million
RIGHT: He's worth 100 kilos of gold.
(ALSO ACCEPTABLE: He's worth 40,000 barrels of oil)
Socrates964
(09/03/2003; 05:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108063)
China
The more I think about it, the less sense it makes for the Chinese to devalue the Yuan until after the dollar has collapsed or ceased to be legal tender for commodities. It doesn't matter that it can't spend the money in the US - as long as it can source raw materials from the developing world and pay in dollars (which will be much more gratefully accepted than yuan, since the exporters probably need them to service their own dollar-denominated debts)
it makes sense to accumulate as many dollars as possible.

Given that they also subscribe to the 'idle hands make mischief' doctrine and have enormous amounts of cheap labor, it makes much more sense to run a 'operate at full capacity and adjust the price to clear the inventory' strategy rather than a 'raise prices and increase revenues per sale' strategy.

Note that in the 1970s, the Arabs were in a position to buy the world. In the 1980s, the Japanese were. Because of cultural barriers, neither managed to exploit the opportunity very effectively. I would bet that the Chinese, who are excellent traders and businessmen, will do a much better job.
Tate
(09/03/2003; 06:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108064)
China will keep Yuan pegged to USD
Let's not be naive. China never been friendly with USA. Every political conflict they stood on opposite side of USA. China has global ambitions to become superpower. This is her best time. At best they will negotiate about Yuan forever or until dollar will be no more. Take your pick. China been in politics long before US existed. As long as China goods are purchased for USD around the world and it can be exchanged for raw materials they will keep Yuan pegged to USD. Where was free trade invented in the first place?
Clink!
(09/03/2003; 06:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108065)
On their knees ....
As BB said "Meanwhile Treasury Secretary John Snow is found on his knees " in China. We are likely to see similar a little closer to home with another Secretary as Powell goes to the UN. Frankly, I'm surprised that they even dare to talk about that at this juncture. After all, the support wasn't exactly in massive evidence before the invasion, why should it be there now ? I suspect the rest of the world thinks things would be much safer if the US bankrupts itself.
I read a scary statistic the other day - half of the total military spending in the entire world is American. And I don't think that number included loan guarantees aand direct aid to other countries to buy US arms.
21mabry
(09/03/2003; 07:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108066)
China
I belive I read somewhere that chinas U.S. D holdings are enough to pay off their foriegn debt.My classes at school started last week,I have a foriegn language requirment I took chinese and had my first class this week.It seems a strange language in which one word can meen several diffrent things depending on voice pitch and tone,but also it seems once you know the language it is much simpler than english.When one goes into our school library one can always find the chinese students studying many american students I know never go to the library.The chinese seem willing to do what it takes to get ahead.My language Prof. who is chinese said any american who wants to can go over to china and get a job teaching english.He said people in china will stop americans on the street and ask them to come to there home and read an american newspaper to them and they will pay and feed the american for this.21
21mabry
(09/03/2003; 07:17:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108067)
(No Subject)
Please pardon the spelling mistakes of my last post.I think I am getting the flu..21
Robert
(09/03/2003; 09:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108068)
He's worth 40,000 barrels of oil
or 100 Kg of gold. This is a good comparison. However, if given the choice, I would prefer to own 40,000 barrels of oil instead of 100 Kg of gold. Oil is a non-renewable asset which we deplete at a exponential rate as if the end of the world is near. The supply of gold on the other hand is increasing at a steady rate of roughly 2000 tons per year. Moreover, gold mined many thousands years ago is still around which means that we do not have any real use for gold. In 50 years there will be much more gold in storage than today, but it is unlikely that there will be any significant amount of oil avaiable on the market. Today 1 ounce of gold buys roughly 10 barrels of oil. Once the oil is gone, no amount of gold will buy a barrel of oil. We can not eat gold, but we do need oil (or other fossil fuels) in order to produce and distribute food.
Paper Avalanche
(09/03/2003; 09:35:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108069)
Out of the wood work they come when gold starts going up
eom

PA
ge
(09/03/2003; 09:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108070)
Saudi Crown Prince Makes Historic Visit to Russia, Focuses on Energy
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=9/3/03&Cat=2Νm=018.
Zhisheng
(09/03/2003; 10:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108071)
China
@21mabryTaking up Chinese: good for you! You have imagination and guts. For the average American speaking only English, it takes about three times as long to reach proficiency in Chinese as in, say, French or Spanish. For this reason it is hard on Chinese teachers---not a large fraction of the students in their beginning classes persist in the program.

But the language is so rich: not just the tones and the characters, but the mental requirements. A Chinese acquaintance of mine said they have found that, while speaking European languages requires use primarily of the left side of the brain, speaking Chinese requires use of both sides of the brain. This is one explanation for the fact that it is more different for an occidental to learn Chinese than for a Chinese to learn English.
....................
It is interesting that Chinese looked (look) at gold as the archetype of all metals. Nearly all characters representing something involving metal have the gold character as a constituent part.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/03/2003; 10:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108072)
BULLION at one percent over our cost! Why pay more elsewhere?
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Shipping costs waived on 25 ounces.


Gold Buyers Group Special
Gandalf the White
(09/03/2003; 10:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108073)
Interesting COMEX data ! <;-)
Dec 03 GOLD Contract (GC3Z) PROGRESS of Wednesday 9/3/03 at HIGH NOON NY
Open $371.9 HIGH $375.8 low $370.9 LAST $375.2 CHANGE +$0.9 Volume 44045 --- AND
YESTERDAY's Prior Settlement was $374.3 WITH OpenInterest of 194,050 <====== NOTE !
<;-)
Ag Mountain
(09/03/2003; 10:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108074)
A friendly wager for Paper Avalanche, the sharp-eyed carpenter
I'll bet 100 kg of gold AND 40,000 barrels of oil that this Robert's surname is NOT Mundell. But as a lightbulb or a bell is the symbol of inspiration, he'll at least be a dark horse for the No Bell prize.
Zhisheng
(09/03/2003; 11:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108075)
Up into the Close!
Nearly a buck higher than yesterday.

The big shorts must be a bit disgusted. Not much bang for their bucks today. THESE long specs do not appear to be pushovers.
Renny
(09/03/2003; 11:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108076)
gold holdings
the man says:

"I now suggest that subscribers put at least one-third of
their liquid assets (not counting their home, their
business, etc, just the liquid assets) into gold coins and
gold shares."
Richard Russell 8/31/03

Now does this mean 1/3 of liquid assets left AFTER previous
purchases of gold or 1/3 of liquid assets INCLUDING your
previous purchases of gold at whatever different $ amounts
you may have paid??

Renny
21mabry
(09/03/2003; 11:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108077)
(No Subject)
Zisheng you are correct ,on average only 40 percent of first year chinese language students return for the second year.They are thinking of dropping chinese to save money.I just hope I can get the second year class in before they do this.In fact there is a movment on campus to drop all foreign language requirments.A mistake in my opinion.I suggested to the proffessor fertile recruiting grounds may lay in the buisness school.Can you imagine the options a buisness school grad who knows chinese would have.21
TownCrier
(09/03/2003; 12:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108078)
Another timely suggestion from a friend by email
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlA few weeks ago a friend highlighted a particularly relevant passage from the Gold Trail, and has done so again. He called this one to my attention yesterday. It certainly resonates with much that has transpired in the past two years and with much that people are now coming to think and say.

I hope you enjoy reviewing this blast from the past as much as I did. (More available at url above)

R.
---------------------------------------

FOA (10/9/01; 10:05:48MT - usagold.com msg#117)
PIZZA,,,, Bronco's,,,,,, Tonne of Yellow Metal,,,, and USAGOLD: Ha Ha,,, a gold advocates dream come true (ssssmile)

Background for everyone

All through out this period bullish gold traders have lost their shirts trying to bet on the price of gold. It wasn't until around 1995? or 1996? that these same traders even began suspecting that the price of gold was manipulated. As years turned into decades, hard money traders plunged their savings into our gold markets as up and down cycles drained their leveraged gold wealth. All the while thinking that the highs and lows, that were killing them, were just the ebb and flow of paper prices representing the fundamental demand and supply of physical gold. With Mises-like faith they knew, someday, the currency inflation that has driven our financial markets and economies upward, would meet its end; finally taking their leveraged gold position to the top. It didn't happen then and it won't happen now; not as they are playing it! Period.

Remember, this writing is coming from one of the longest running (now ex.) "Hard Money Socialist" anyone has ever seen!

Without mentioning any names, I can remember when some of today's most avid supporters of the manipulation cause were shouting down, not only Another's voice of reason to buy physical, but anyone else that suggested manipulation or a "political thrust" was controlling the paper price.

Today, countless gold people around the world point out that gold is a manipulated item. While being on the right track, they are still using the wrong perception to grasp the dynamics of these markets. This lack of perception is what keeps them from positioning themselves and other gold people correctly: positioned to gain wealth when a stake is finally driven in the heart of this paper monster.

The efforts by most are focused in one direction; to once again make our paper gold markets reflect the real rarity and actual fundamental value of physical gold bullion. While my heart, support and courage goes out to all gold bulls that strive for this end, it's chances of happening are the same as having government moneys return to being backed with gold: zero chance!

This grip on physical prices, that paper trading has, is only going to be changed because dollar gold derivatives no longer work. Not because some form of private lawsuit, world disaster or private coin buying is going to redirect investment flows. Only an official government change away from supporting their currency with paper pricing will do it,,,,, and don't expect the USA to be at the forefront of this move.

---------------

Lost in all the confusion is the distinction between investing in the price of gold and investing in gold itself. Perhaps 90% of all the investing in today's worldwide, dollar settled, gold market is done in this first way mentioned. Yes, the market is structured, contractually, to settle in gold. However, in practice, in norm, and in past legal precedent, it is accepted that paper gold trading is meant to only capture the price movements in gold while ceding, what could be, controlling physical trades and their price setting function to other market areas.

Obviously, this is the way it all started, years ago, with the physical trading and its fundamentals dominating the lesser paper trading. But the market evolved with the paper contractual trading becoming 100 or more times the size of the physical side. But everyone already knows all this, right?

What doesn't seem to be obvious is the "why for" the paper market grew so large. It grew to dominate because world wide dollar expansion reached its "non hedged" peak. In other words, the dollar's timeline was ending as its ability to produce non price inflationary economic gains came into
sight

In order to push dollar holdings further, international players needed and purchased "paper financial hedges" to balance their risk. Within their total mix of derivative hedges were found "paper gold price hedges"; modern gold derivatives. The important thing to remember is that these positions are not and never will be used to demand physical gold. They are held to buffer financial and currency risk associated with holding any form of dollar based asset. To work these items don't need to really perform "dollar price movements" in the holders favor as much as they are present in the portfolio to act as insurance stickers.

In that truth, these paper gold positions act like FDIC insurance at our banks. It can and will manage only a small determined portion of bank runs,,,,, not a full scale failure of the banking system. In a real full banking failure we would all get, perhaps, 80% of our covered $100,000 and 10% of the rest.

The same is true for these gold position's performance; real gold delivery along with true price performance, matching real bullion trading, would be only for the very few. For that matter, an actual functioning paper gold marketplace would be for the very few, too! But, in the same way a bank account owner understands the credibility of FDIC insurance when times are good; the international dollar asset owner will not grasp that modern paper gold hedges cannot be allowed to work until after a real serious price inflationary run begins.

For the first time in this portion of the dollar's timeline and our lifetimes, such an inflation is about to show its face!

==================

While so many of our gold bulls salivate at the prospects of some player calling for delivery and driving the gold derivatives market to the moon; it ain't gona happen! Our world of dollar based gold derivatives has grown so large and become so integrated into supporting (hedging) international dollar assets, the central banks will band together to crush any delivery drive.

This is in the ECBs intrest as I will explain in a moment.

If some big player said he was going to take 100 million ozs out of the paper gold market, the Central Bank systems would just order him to trade out for liquidation only and go to the cash market to buy his gold. Don't think I'm confusing Comex positions and their rules as being different from the rest of the world gold market. What works on comex works everywhere when the system is at risk. The controlling governments, who's domain Bullion Banks reside in, would, could and will force those holders of bank busting positions to simply cash out for the good of their system.

By the way; not only does a liquidation market send baby gold bulls running to sell, also, the BBs would be selling enough additional paper to temporally send gold down $100 bucks so our boy would trade out with a little less cash (smile). Then he would find an opposite "premium" spike in the cash markets, waiting for his order.

I hope my little dose of reality drives some sense into our gold community. This is the reason Another says only fools try to buy their gold all at once on the paper markets. "NOONE" is going to exercise their "corner" until the dollar based gold system is changed.

-------------

OK, thanks for waiting, MK, I'm getting to your point. (smile)

Mike, while I'm writing this, I see gold selling off (silver more so). Once again, we see where the paper based trading has plenty of selling power and completely dominates the physical fundamental markets. How may postulated, even just a few years ago, that with the fed expanding the money supply by a year to date "one trillion"; that paper gold could not reflect this inflation? This only further confirms that this form of market "hedge" is failing to function for its owners. Changing are coming, my friend, changes are coming! Back to the story:

==================

Paper gold derivatives became a major force in allowing this last, end time, demand for dollars and subsequent surge in it's value. This is why Another said it would run way up, even while being inflated, before the end would come.

Only now are we coming to a point where theory meets practice as Alan Greenspan now is and must hit the presses. This forced printing inflation, currently happening, is the very precursor to a lower dollar exchange rate, rising real price inflation and the very first destructive test of paper gold derivative hedges. As price inflation rises the US will protect its own banks and the short paper gold portion of these positions they created. They will sell all the paper gold they can in order to stop these hedging positions from functioning and breaking their writers.

On the physical side, the US wants and needs a higher price as they ship real gold commitments to help balance our sinking ship. So, the dollar supporting paper gold position we have sold for years will now block our ability to gain some ground with high US gold reserve prices.

In turn, Euro factions will also sell into the paper gold dollar system to help further discredit its hedging function in the face of dollar price inflation. Now to the good part:

----------------

If you are a major international dollar asset holder, watching this evolving transition, how would you act? Remember, not only is paper gold not rising to reflect real dollar price inflation, even physical gold cannot react because the dollar based market, as it currently functions, keeps physical subject to paper discovered prices.

With the world dollar gold markets completely locked from rising and performing their portion of a hedge function for your portfolio,,,,,,, because, if they rose trillions would be lost by the writers,,,,,,, what asset based currency would you escape into.

How about a currency that wants you to redirect your fiat hedging to using outright physical gold instead of paper gold leverage? A currency, with a stated free gold pricing policy, that will allow your physical hedge to function in place of that locked dollar gold market; and function in a currency supporting way.

They say: We understand that there will be an inflationary transition form this dollar world because we, ourselves, must absorb a certain portion of all the past created dollar inflation. A portion of pain we and the world must all bear in order to economically get pass this period. But, at least, we offer a position in the wealth of ages to reflect this financial loss as it is manifest in price inflation.

We will allow and support any physical gold Euro price rise to balance this action.

--------------------------

Mike,
the leverage today will be in a physical gold position, not any other form of gold ownership. By accumulating physical gold today, we are truly walking in the footsteps of giants; advancing with them as they work thru this singular, long term political move. Truly, the oil producers also fully understand and appreciate this position.

Yes, I think it is theoretically possible to see physical Euro gold priced very high while traditional American paper gold markets become cheap, non functioning, cash settlement shadows of world spot gold values. In the near future, there will be no form of arbitrage between physical gold and this failed , crushed dollar gold market because it will only allow cash settlement. While a US physical gold free market will be locally encouraged, it will most likely simply be a shadow function of Euro Gold prices.

Besides, politically, unless we once again stop all gold ownership and or implement exchange controls,,,,,, all gold buying money would head to europe. Besides again, politically, a Euro based free market will end all fictions of gold's true value anyway. (This is my private understanding or scoop, if you will) I also expect a European gold coin to become real usable legal tender (not a collector item) and be named the "EuroLand"". Again, a barter asset that is taxed when used. Just as we have sales taxes and excise taxes; gold coins used outside an investment realm would be taxed. (again, this is but the shadow of an evolving down the road position as I can best grasp it)

I also fully well expect that most world gold mine production will be forced to ship gold into the leftovers of the dollar cash settlement paper market until the Bullion Banking system is made whole on their physical side. In adjunct to this, the ECB and BIS will play a major roll in cashing out failed paper gold positions for certain clients. Cashing out in Euros, that is.

A US workout to cover its failed paper gold position will most likely be using gold industry profits. It could be done via "windfall tax legislation", plain tax or part of any variety of emergency financial arrangement. All built in order to allow our current gold reserves to be repriced at higher world levels and help our dollar stay somewhere in the next currency system. Considering the size of the failure, real gold will outperform any and all investments once this all gets started. However, we should not be naive and not expect some serious taxes of our own on bullion sales. Still, only just enough so as to keep currency tender protected from being supplanted with illegal gold use. Illegal in that too high a rate and everyone would use gold in barter and stopped paying their capital gains taxes all together.
Dollar hyperinflation and super high gold prices are closer than many think.

MK, while I think you have always understood our thrust, if this post is sinking into the readers understanding,,,,, the words should be jumping off the page at them. Let's hope so.

Now, I think I will do some gardening and also have a pizza later. Sounded too good to pass up! (smile).

thanks

TrailGuide
21mabry
(09/03/2003; 12:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108079)
Stock Market
One man who I have listned to when able is Bob Brinker.For the last several years this man has predicted the direction of the markets with a record few can match.He was in stocks from 1991 until early 2000.At that time he told his readers and listners get out of stocks and into cash.Mr. Brinker gave his readers the signal to go back into stocks in march of this year.What will happen I do not know,but he has a very good track record.Mr. Brinker never seemed to think much of gold and less of silver I dont know his reaction to the gold bull of the last couple years as he is not on local radio anymore.21
Gandalf the White
(09/03/2003; 12:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108080)
The P&F chart ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PYES, Sir Zhisheng ! The CABAL is now seeing less impact on the old tricks ! SOON they will start to fear the fate of the charge of the GOLDHEARTS !
Look at the BEAUTIFUL "green #9 (representing the month of Sept.) on the P&F Chart at the $380. level !
The chant is now 390 390 390 !
<;-)
slingshot
(09/03/2003; 13:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108081)
Socrates964
$1000.00 Big Mac! Must have some really special sauce.

The prices at the supermarket are going up and soon we will start shopping around for the best deals.Get your meat and fish at one store and canned goods at another.
Then comes hyperinflation?

Ladies and Gentlemen, Grab Your Shopping Carts! ;0)
Off to work.
Thanks,
Slingshot-------------------<>
canamami
(09/03/2003; 13:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108082)
Yuan/Dollar Link
If the US were serious, it would just tell China that tariffs will be imposed on Chinese produced goods unless yuan floats freely. The purpose of the peg is to ensure continued exports to the US. (The flipside: During the late 90's currency crisis, the US pleaded with China to keep the peg, so maybe the US protests too much.)

The peg is good for Chinese gold demand and currency policy. Chinese savings can be parked in gold without disrupting the relationship between national currencies.

Ag Mountain
(09/03/2003; 14:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108083)
Chinese currency float
If North Dakota or Alabama is not being pressured to float its currency relative to New York or California, then why should China be under pressure or feel any obligation to do so?

Think long and hard about it.
tyro
(09/03/2003; 14:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108084)
World Bank Forecasts $300 Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030903/economy_metals_worldbank_1.htmlSnippitt: "Wednesday September 3, 1:02 pm ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The World Bank forecast on Wednesday the gold price, trading around $370 an ounce, should fall below $300 an ounce as new, low-cost mines are started and producers slow the rate they've been buying gold back to unwind price protection contracts.
Gold stormed from around $250 an ounce lows last year, reaching a 6-1/2 year high at $388.50 in February as the U.S. dollar fell and threats of war against Iraq grew.
But the bank said gold's rise should weaken over the medium-term.
"Over the medium-term prices are expected to fall below $300 an ounce as supplies from all sources exceed demand," the World Bank said in a Global Economic Prospects report.
"Even below $300/oz, mine production is expected to continue to increase moderately as new low-cost operations come on stream," it said.
The World Bank also said key for the gold price was whether central bankers renegotiate a 1999 European Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement to limit their gold sales."

tyro: What a bargain price! But, from what I've read here, it's not going to happen.

Paper Avalanche
(09/03/2003; 15:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108085)
Who own's the World Bank?
Seriously, I would be curious to know the answer to this question if some one knows off the top of their head.

Thanks!
PA
Paper Avalanche
(09/03/2003; 15:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108086)
I found this link about the World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org/Interesting stuff.
Federal_Reserves
(09/03/2003; 15:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108087)
How the market goes down.
One stock a time. During year 2000, with stocks selling at nose bleed levels, stocks crashed. We have the same condition today. Overvaluation, a runup on loose money. The FED has expanded the money supply almost 20% in the last few months. Believe it or not this is a real negative for stocks right now. Money growth eventually must be brought back in line with reality, and once it does stocks weaken, even crash. That happened in 2000 as the FED unwound the big 98/99 y2k money pump. If you recall, stocks started getting 30-40% haircuts, it was stock specific. The only way to cut the nuts off of stock bulls is to not short the market, but to short specific stocks. Look for weak stocks, that aren't going up on the days the market rallies, like today. Short them. Make sure you have the odds on your side, if there are more calls open than puts in the front month that is a good contrary sign. The pro-shorters will attack a loose cow, break it out of the hear, and bring it down, rather than concentrate on the herd. Once a few specific stocks start getting killed, with big 20-30% declines in a day, and one COW after another gets slaughtered, I think then you'll see the fear index rise and the owners of the herd will run to safety and sell out before they to become victims.

Keep a close eye on the daily looser list, you should see more and more big whopper declines in stocks. A lot of crappy stocks have big runups, watch the slaughter on this channel. They'll take the index apart when they are good and ready. The prized cows with big weights in the index usually make poor shorts at the start of a decline, because folks will sell the crappy stocks and run into them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mnpl?e=o

Anyways, good luck.
Paper Avalanche
(09/03/2003; 15:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108088)
THIS JUST IN!!!!!!
Abbey Joseph Cohen says gold to hit $227 / ounce in 2004.

Just thought I'd jump in with my own headline since using the main stream news outlets for economic propoganda has become sport.

BTW - While it is certainly likely that such tripe would be spewed by AJC, the above is not an actual headline.

PA
DummyANI
(09/03/2003; 15:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108089)
Re:Dollar Bill (8/31/03; 20:55:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 107962)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chen083103.htmlMost fraud accounting system in the world is the accounting system about Central Banks.
According to the above theory of Dr. Chih Kwan Chen, Bank of Japan is the best Bank of the world.
But in the financial world, the worst loser of the 2003 fiscal year will be BOJ.
Who is the top holder of Japanese Government Bonds ?

This is BOJ, the total value is nearly one trillion dollars, nearly 16 percent of total six trillion dollars which is 150 percent of GDP.
The market of Japanese Government Bonds has been collapsed at last August after thirteen years bull rally.
Typical Head and Shoulder pattern was observed. Its head was 145.09 at June 10, 2003, the left shoulder was 143.47 at March 10,2003, and the right shoulder was 142.41 at August 5,2003.

At September 3,2003, the indicator of Japanese Government Bonds was 136 level, and its yield has been jumped over 300 percent. Could BOJ manage to hedge the Bond market ? Not at all, BOJ holds too many bonds. If BOJ sells her holding bonds, everyone can easily know her action at once. BOJ holds her buying-bonds at the maturity time.

Who is the top holder of USA Government Bonds ?

This is also BOJ, the total value is nearly 0.44 trillion dollars.
The market of USA Government Bonds has also been collapsed at last June. Could BOJ manage to hedge the USA-Bond market ? Not at all, BOJ holds too many bonds. If BOJ sells her holding bonds, everyone can easily know her action at once.

BOJ holds about 1.44 trillion dollar of Government Bonds in Japan and USA. BOJ has no hedge positions at each bond-market. BOJ is a sinking Titanic at the financial market.

I cannot image that Japan's national account balance will be 2.7 + 9.0 = 11.7 trillion dollars at 2023. Before this happens, Japan retraces Ennron destiny.
Great Albino Bat
(09/03/2003; 15:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108090)
Paper Avalanche: the World Bank...

An excellent example of parasitism in humanity.

I guess parasitism is a legitimate form which life can exhibit, in its diverse manifestations. We condemn parasitism but perhaps this is unjust; just because we are the ones who nurture the parasites, doesn't mean that parasites don't have their place in the great Scheme of Things. To condemn parasites is not objective, it is subjective. For parasites, parasitism is the only way to live. I am sure parasites greatly enjoy their life, and feel contempt for those of us inferior beings who cannot share their enjoyment.

Think of Wolfensohn, that magnificent parasite, President of the World Bank. He flies around the world at will, in his G-5, and has trouble deciding in which villa to spend the next few days: is it on an island in Sweden, at a villa overlooking lake Como in Italy, on a wine estate in Chile? etc.

The problem with being a parasite is you mostly, have to be born into the style. The lucky few.

Being a really good parasite requires certain mental conditioning. A necessary starting point for excelling in parasitism, requires a fundamental view that regards humanity as, in general, inferior and created for the benefit of the parasite. Starting from that initial point of view, well ingrained in youth, the potential parasite is freed from any qualms whatsoever, about enjoying sucking the blood from humanity at large. Few of us start out with that advantage in education.

This has been a great age for human parasites; they enjoy the full consent of their "hosts", as those who provide the blood are known in biology. What happier condition could the parasites hope for? Their dreams come true!

Human parasites both love and hate gold. They love it for themselves, and want all of it, because they hate it in the hands of their "hosts". The human parasite has trouble sucking blood from a human who owns gold. So, the parasites cooperate to find ways of parting humans (the inferior kind) from their gold. They have to convince the "host" that gold produces no return, is volatile, is outmoded, is going down in price.

Therefore, the World Bank, one of the high citadels of parasitism, announces gravely that gold will be below $300 shortly.

Sorry, all you human lice at World Bank, the GAB is not buying your story!

The GAB.


DummyANI
(09/03/2003; 15:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108091)
Japanese car exports stop for a few months.
Shin Nippon Steel, the top steel company in the world, melt down in Nagoya-works at September 4..
Shin Nippon Steel at Nagoya is the primary provider of Auto-makers in Japan, ex. Toyota and Honda.
Toyota and Honda cannot make any cars for a few months. This is a trigger of the trade deficits of Japan.
The monkey economy of Toyota-system will be melt down by the simple accident of a steel maker.
Buy a gold, sell a yen.
Cometose
(09/03/2003; 16:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108092)
Abby Jo Cohen : Prognosticator
So they trotted the old Girl back out today to have a word ,eh? and what did MRS ED have to say???????

If you check her track record , you will find that she's on a hot streak ......of LYING going back several years...

LIAR LIAR, Panties on fire , YOUR NOSE IS LONGER THAN A TELEPHONE WIRE? ah HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAAAAAHAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHAHHHHHHHHHHAHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA
Agingfast
(09/03/2003; 16:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108093)
Gold and poetry
According to his biography on the IMDb site, actor Brian Donlevy's favorite hobbies were mining for gold and writing poetry.
misetich
(09/03/2003; 16:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108094)
Executive Summary Report - Fed Reserve Beige Book - Sept 3
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2003/20030903/default.htmExecutive Summary prepared by Misetich

Labor markets remain slack across the nation
.........

Although districts note price increases for natural gas, gasoline, insurance, tuition, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, most product prices are reported to be stable or lower
..........

In most districts, retail sales improved at least modestly in July and August
.........

Manufacturing activity is reported to be improving slightly to moderately
...........
Various districts report solid or strengthening demand for autos and auto parts, high tech equipment, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and building materials...............On the other hand, markets for paper, chemicals, textiles, and furniture were reportedly soft or softer than in the recent past, and overall steel demand remains muted
............

Manufacturers are reportedly facing rising costs for energy and insurance, but materials costs mostly remain contained.............However, competitive pressures or weak demand continue to cause other selling prices to hold steady or fall.
.............
Manufacturers generally expect that their production volumes will increase somewhat
...........
Although commercial real estate markets remained lackluster in most districts in July and early August, scattered signs of improvement were reported.
...........
Unfavorable weather--too much rain in the East and too little in the Midwest and Southwest--is delaying harvests and damaging crops and pastures in parts of many districts
*************
Misetich

Little job creation, pricing pressure/margins being squeezed by higher energy costs, insurance costs

The stock market are racing higher again based on false illusions

The big bad bear is licking its chops. Is the SM top near?

The gold bull is ready to stampede for the next leg up.

Stay tuned

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich
(09/03/2003; 16:45:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108096)
World Bank: Global Economic Recovery Fragile But Under Way Sep 3 / 14:12 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1062612720000&sn=3&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The global economic recovery is still
fragile but is underway, although industrialized countries will only see
"anemic growth" of 1.5% in 2003, the World Bank said in its report on
Global Economic Prospects released Wednesday.
.............

The report sees U.S. growth of 2.2%, 3.4% and 2.8%, compared to
Japan's 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.3%, and the euro area's 0.7%, 1.7% and 2.1% in
2003, 2004 and 2005
..........
The report cited as structural risks the historically high U.S.
current account deficit, and weak performance of Japanese and European
banks, but also noted other risks such as the return of SARS and
troubles in the Middle East.
.............
And, pointing to the U.S. current account deficit, the report cited
the risk of "a sudden reversal" of short-term capital flows, that could
"undercut U.S. and world growth."
Hans Timmer, head of the World Bank's global trends team, said in a
statement that, "The persistent structural problem in rich countries --
such as the twin deficits in the U.S. and weaker performance of Japanese
and European banks -- risk precipitating a disruptive fall in the U.S.
dollar or other unexpected confidence shock that cuts off the investment
recovery.
"If these risks materialize, all bets are off," Timmer said.
The report also said, "the spread of deflation has become a real
risk," and cited figures indicating "the world's major economies could
be balanced on the edge of deflation."
****************
Misetich

"If these risks materialize, all bets are off," Timmer said.

It makes you wonder on how the World Bank makes predictions of gold at $300, anemic world growth, citing global deflation risks, dysfunctional imbalances and financial risks, affecting all continents

Who are these bozos?

What is the alternative to the US $? The Euro? The Yen?

or

GOLD? PHYSICAL GOLD

You decide

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

DryWasher
(09/03/2003; 16:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108097)
SPRINGBOARD FOR DISCUSSION
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html

@TownCrier (usagold.com msg#: 108054)
Thank you sir for the above link, and WOW, what a discussion on gold and the monetary system. I have spent most of the day reading it and have bookmarked it for future reference. Excellent.

@Cor Tauri (usagold.com msg#: 108039)
Thank you also for pointing me to the above discussion as well. I am sad to hear that anger caused two great minds to leave this round table over disagreement on this issue back then. We must all take extreme care not to allow anger to ever enter in to our discussions, and to remember to show respect for views we may not agree with.

@Dollar Bill (usagold.com msg#: 108050)
If the entire existing world monetary system crashes either world trade must just stop, which would be a disaster, or some new system would have to be put into place to replace it. In the wake of such a crash I just cannot see those who have lost in the crash being willing to accept a new system that has all of the problems of the old system. It is in that context that I think a system along the lines that I outlined might emerge and the United States would be forced to correct the balance of payments with the rest of the world, or using your terminology, our credit card would be cancelled. Thanks for the comments.


@Buena Fe (usagold.com msg#: 108034)
You said "IMO you are descibing in part the post civilized period dubbed by certain folk; "the millenium", during which a certain "Anointed One" is in charge."
This wasn't exactly what I had in mind, but if the system does really crash one living through it might well think you were right. (Smile).


@Great Albino Bat (usagold.com msg#: 108031)
Thanks for the reply. It seems that you and I think pretty much the same on this subject. Also I agree with your views on growth. Bigger is not always better by any means.
Gandalf the White
(09/03/2003; 16:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108098)
GOODBYE Dan !
BTW -- you should add one more six to that email address !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/03/2003; 17:05:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108099)
Even looks BETTER today !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PThey have changed the "nine" from green to red as it is a day old now ! AND, on the green background, it looks even better.
390 390 390
<;-)
DummyANI
(09/03/2003; 17:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108100)
No car exports result in No Japanese trade surplus.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htm15 injured in gas tank explosion

Japanese car exports stop for a few months.
Shin Nippon Steel, the top steel company in the world, melt down in Nagoya-works at September 3.
Shin Nippon Steel at Nagoya is the primary provider of Auto-makers in Japan, ex. Toyota and Honda.
Toyota and Honda cannot make any cars for a few months. They suffer from no steel of cars. This is a trigger of the trade deficits of Japan. No car exports result in No Japanese trade surplus
The monkey economy of Toyota-system will be melt down by the simple accident of a steel maker.
D-ANY: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
Remarx
(09/03/2003; 18:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108101)
Re: World Bank Forecast
Is anyone aware if there is a documented history of World Bank forecasts on the POG? I would love to be able to track them against actual occurrences.
R Powell
(09/03/2003; 18:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108102)
Silver
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=246u1110§ion=Markets&page=Commodities&channel=Precious%20Metals%20News&objectid=C9D5E773-8F38-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7C If the Chinese keep up this pace, we may have enough silver for those superconductive cables after all.
Naw, couldn't happen.
specie-man
(09/03/2003; 19:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108103)
RE: Silver
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=246u1110§ion=Markets&page=Commodities&channel=Precious%20Metals%20News&objectid=C9D5E773-8F38-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7CWhy do journalists always have such little regard for numbers, and making sure the numbers in their stories are correct ?

I'd like to know what China's exact silver export numbers are, but that article is suspicious.

At the top it says the 2002 export total was 2219 tons. Later on it says the 2002 export total was 2214 tons (a small discrepancy, I know).

But there is a bigger discrepancy. China's silver exports, according to the article were:

2000, 191.0 tons
2001, 1225.0 tons, up 540.0% from 2000
2002, 2214.0 tons, up 80.7% from 2001
2003, 104.4 tons, up 18.0% from 2002

The 2003 number is for the first five months of the year, and the "18%" gain is compared to the first five months of 2002. The "104.4" figure looks suspect. Maybe it is really "1044" - that would be close to 18% higher than five twelfths of the 2002 number.

I shouldn't have to do the math. They should report it correctly the first time.

steady
(09/03/2003; 19:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108104)
GANDALF RE THE CHART
if u take a double look at that chart you will see spot at full attention pointing to the finger which is pointing the dircetion whcich we arre headed.
notice spots feet cb and 4
notice number hanging from spots collar 6 which is a multiple or deriviate of 3 a good luck sign. notice how strong his tail is

notice the finger #9 is the index #8 is the second finger
#7 is the third the row of 0000 is the rest of your hand.
that is one beautifully painted chart. are you sure you didnt draw that yourself, or guide the markets into drawing it for us.
good boy spot didnt now he was a pointer to! :+)
canamami
(09/03/2003; 20:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108105)
Reply to Ag Mountain
Ag Mountain,

But you're referring to subnational entities which form part of the same country. All those States are part of the US and use the same currency. China is a separate country.

China's growth is to a great extent based on exports to the US, and China maintains its comparative advantage artificially by pegging the yuan to the dollar at a favourable rate. Other things being equal, the yuan should rise relative to the dollar with the trade imbalance, to redress the trade imbalance by discouraging Chinese exports to the US. (I note that China also does not respect US rights in terms of intellectual property, etc.).

I recognize that the US broke (and is breaking) the "rules" in terms of repudiating the peg to gold and in suppressing the POG. However, it is wrong to hold the US to a higher moral standard. The other actors also fight dirty to advance their own interests, and China is a particularly dirty fighter.
Cometose
(09/03/2003; 20:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108106)
CHINA AND SILVER
COULD IT BE , Could it be, COuld it be, COULD IT BE >>>>>>>>>>>>
THAT THE CHNESE ARE joining WARREN and BILL , and GEORGE et AL in a game of

manipultating the price of silver.....or would that be reverse manipulation or would it be reverse hedging...
what a novel idea.....

If silver starts running , you know the GOLD BUGS are not going to let anyone show them up ....it will just light a fire under GOLD........LOOK at all their (Chinese) holdings of US paper.......got to have an ACE IN THE HOLE of DIVERSIFICATION and in this case....it just might be a sure thing....hmmmmm perhaps that's two aces....

Now all we need is the encouraging words from the leaders of the two most populous nations in the world who may step up to the Microphone and encourage their people to buy silver and gold to weather the coming finanicial storm.....

GOD is answering my prayer and sending great vision and practical fianancial guidance into the depths of human beings across the world.....

Perhaps this time ......the plans of The Sinister backfire in their faces and the masses are protected and rewarded for following the light that has been given them.....
GOTTA LOVE THAT INTERNET.....and THAT LIGHT

Now I have another prayer.....
and forgive me for praying outloud....,I think it's healthy to pray out loud sometimes....I'm thinking about taking it up in restaurants....I know how to pray and I don't pray boring prayers even when I'm blessing my food....
One of my heroes is from Kansas; His name is Donny Fugit...
He used to pray long prayers over lunch in the WAY and pray in the name of Davy Crockett just to make sure that everyone was awake...

Pardon my aside....

God , thank you for your universe and all creation and especially for all your precious People(s) all over the globe..May what you are doing and what you are going to do be a great testament ( in addition to the other testaments that you already gave) to the great love you have for all mankind......including men women and children of all colors , nations , and faiths....

I know , GOD , that You are able.....and that you hear me ..
and that no request / petition is too great or too small...

If evil is purposed against the peoples of the world GOd , I thank You that as our Buckler and our Rearreward that YOU Protect....by causing solar flares of a magnitude as to knock out the Satelite systems that carry the coordinates of missile destinations and that you short circuit every device of evil in the arsenal of evil to bring their plans to nought.... and to the consternation of the media and the leaders of the organizations that purpose to war and to control and self empower and engender strife ...that you fill the hearts of the peoples of the world with the will to LOVE EACH other in spite of the COUNTER INTELLIGENCE designed to defeat THAT END that is purposefully spread about through the use of ugly acts , ugly mouths and the media... in the name of JESUS CHRIST , I beseech you Lord Almighty...

Also thank you for this awesome country that was established to be OF THE PEOPLE, FOR THE PEOPLE, AND BY THE PEOPLE and when some come along and try to hijack that ,that the citizens who love the LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE......send those bozo's on their way ....all of them repeatedly as long as it takes to fulfill our purpose here
Ag Mountain
(09/03/2003; 20:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108107)
canamami thanks for giving it thought
YOU: "China maintains its comparative advantage artificially by pegging the yuan to the dollar at a favourable rate."

That's a fancy (almost accusatory) way of saying 'The Chinese worker is willing to do the job for less real pay.'

If they're willing, why is that not their prerogative? One world currency or many, it all boils down the same.

I'll leave the morality thing to higher powers to sort out somewhere in the end.
Cavan Man
(09/03/2003; 20:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108108)
canamami USAG108082
Dear Sir: The US can't affor to be serious. Here in the US, we depend upon imports from China. Almost everything I purchase has Chinese components or is 100% sourced in China.I have been told by US west coast box buyers that China is now exporting linerboard (stuff corrugated boxes are made of) to the west coast. We ship them the fibre; they add the value and we give the boxes away. I understand box shipments were at one time reported in Barron's (too bad to see such a good venue lost to irrational exuberance). US box shipments:

2001: minus 5.8%
2002: plus .4%
Thru 7-31-03: minus 1.6%

Whither the recovery? PS: I still love NS! Hopefully, we will return soon! Best...CM
Remarx
(09/03/2003; 20:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108109)
Keynes on Gold, Recovery and Aggression
This forum has stimulated me to read various primary sources, including Adam Smith, Karl Marx and most recently Murray Rothbard's "What Has Government Done to Our Money" (from the Ludwig Von Mises Institute). I may be wrong, but his classical economics perspective seems to represent the thoughts of a lot of people who collect physical gold and discuss it in this forum.

But I am also just now reading Keynes and thought I might include a snippet with statements that fly in the face of much of the analysis here in re the current US account deficit and its fiat currency. I am still honestly trying to determine how much financial trouble the US is really in. It is reassuring, in some degree, to know that there exists theoretical support for the positions the US has taken historically (viz, debt and being off the gold standard). They do not all appear to be solely the result of spineless politicians as many claim. And they may not be the source of our imperial aggression any more than had we adhered to classical economics policies, as Keynes indicates.

I think there may be others out there who are interested in gold for the same reason I am: although it has no intrinsic value, it may be a lifesaver in troubled times because so many people seem to value it and turn to it when in doubt. I personally cannot give credence to Rothbard's claim that gold has intrinsic monetary value; to me it has no more allure than gold painted metal. But I do realize it is valued by others around the world!

If this kind of back-to-basics questioning is not viewed as helpful or interesting, please let me know and I will not post any more messages of this sort.

----
SNIP FROM Keynes' General Theory:
...to the confused thinking of contemporary advocates of
an international fixed gold standard and laissez-faire in
international lending, who believe that it is precisely these policies which will best promote peace.

For in an economy subject to money contracts and customs more or less fixed over an appreciable period of time, where the quantity of the domestic circulation and the domestic rate of interest are primarily determined by the balance of payments, as they were in Great Britain before the war, there is no orthodox means open to the authorities for countering unemployment at home except by struggling for an export surplus and an import of the monetary metal at the expense of their neighbours. Never in history was there a method devised of such efficacy for setting each country's advantage at variance with its neighbours' as the international gold (or, formerly, silver) standard. For it made domestic prosperity directly dependent on a competitive pursuit of markets and a competitive appetite for the precious metals. When by happy accident the new supplies of gold and silver were comparatively abundant, the struggle might be somewhat abated. But with the growth of wealth and the diminishing marginal propensity to consume, it has tended to become increasingly internecine. The part played by orthodox economists, whose common sense has been insufficient to check their faulty logic, has been disastrous to the latest act. For when in their blind struggle for an escape, some countries have thrown off the obligations which had previously rendered impossible an autonomous rate of interest, these economists have taught that a restoration of the former shackles is a necessary
first step to a general recovery.

In truth the opposite holds good. It is the policy of an autonomous rate of interest, unimpeded by international preoccupations, and of a national investment programme directed to an optimum level of domestic employment which is twice blessed in the sense that it helps ourselves and our neighbours at the same time. And it is the simultaneous pursuit of these policies by all countries together which is capable of restoring economic health and strength internationally, whether we measure it by the level of domestic employment or by the volume of international trade.
canamami
(09/03/2003; 20:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108110)
Further reply to Ag Mountain
Thx for your reply.

Let's recast the fact situation. Let's say the US tomorrow said "We're pegging the dollar to the yuan" but at a rate favourable to US trade goals, which ultimately impact on real, living human beings.

Well, the scenario for a outright trade war, perhaps leading to a shooting war, is set. China says Peg A, the US says Peg B, and both sides engage in all out manipulation to achieve their ends.

When China pegs to the $US, that means it is willing to manipulate the $US as well as its own currency. Now, when smaller countries like Argentina and Ecuador peg to the $US, the impact on the US may not be great, but if China does it, the impact is harmful.

This was one benefit of the gold standard or a peg to gold: The currency peg to gold was not a hostile act directed at a "pegee" country, so to speak. If gold is not in the picture, then floating currencies are preferable, as a peg to another country's currency is potentially a cause of major conflict, perhaps war.
Remarx
(09/03/2003; 21:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108111)
@PaperAvalanche: World Bank aslo on Gold Wrong for 2002 and 2003
I followed PA's link to the World Bank and also looked at the 2002 and 2003 forecasts. They both predicted stagnant gold prices -- and the price went up dramatically and consistently after their predictions were made!
canamami
(09/03/2003; 21:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108112)
Reply to Cavan Man
CM,

I'm glad you liked my home province. It's a wonderful place in which to live, as long as one has a job (which seems to be the bane of all the beautiful places in which to live).

You hit on an important point. The US may now be so deindustrialized that it may have lost its resiliency, the ability to adapt if it did get serious with China. However, I think the US is still the most adaptive and resilient country in the world. Even if the FOA/Another paradigm shift comes to pass to the degree they predicted, the US will recover after a painful disruption.

I used to be a free trader. (I still think free trade is good among countries at essentially similar stages of economic and social development). However, I am becoming a Perot/Buchanan follower in terms of trade between countries at wildly different stages of development, which leads to what Jane Jacobs described as "transactions of decline".
ax
(09/03/2003; 21:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108113)
CHINESE EXPORTS ARE ALSO HIGH TECH
REF

Cavan Man (09/03/03; 20:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 108108)
canamami USAG108082
Dear Sir: The US can't affor to be serious. Here in the US, we depend upon imports from China. Almost everything I purchase has Chinese components or is 100% sourced in China.I have been told by US west coast box buyers that China is now exporting linerboard (stuff corrugated boxes are made of) to the west coast...

AXComment:

I recently purchased an IBM Think Pad high end lap top from IBM and was surprised to see that THE LAP TOP AND MOST ALL add on components were all MADE IN CHINA.

CONCLUSION: I THINK IT IS DANGEROUS FOR ANY COUNTRY MOST PARTICULARLY THE U.S. TO BECOME OVERLY DEPENDENT ON HIGH TECH IMPORTS FROM A FOREIGN COUNTRY.

Max Rabbitz
(09/03/2003; 21:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108114)
ReMarx on Marx
"In truth the opposite holds good. It is the policy of an autonomous rate of interest, unimpeded by international
preoccupations, and of a national investment programme directed to an optimum level of domestic employment
which is twice blessed in the sense that it helps ourselves and our neighbours at the same time."

In truth does anyone really understand what Marx was talking about? No one has been able to explain his thoughts to me in terms I can understand. What you have posted from Marx seems to describe the fiat system!

"Never in history was there a method devised of such efficacy for setting each country's advantage at variance with its neighbours' as the international gold (or, formerly, silver) standard."

This statement seems to me to describe the current beggar thy neighbor currency system employed in the current fiat system.

ReMarx, Contrary opinions are always welcome. I've always valued the stimulation. Gold has been and is the test of honesty and truth. You can't fake it.





Melting Pot
(09/03/2003; 21:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108115)
@Remarx
"When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket, and then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter. Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch Money. Money is a barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion--when you see that in order to produce you need permission from men who produce nothing--when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors---when you see men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you--when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice--you may know that our society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that it does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot. Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize GOLD and leave to its owner's a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that doesn't exist, backed by a gun pointed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account Overdrawn."--Ayn Rand: "Atlas Shrugged"

John Maynard Keynes was a madman that taught the intellectual elites how to fleece the world by destroying all objective standards and objective value. Todays society reflects todays values, money wise, intellectual, social and moral! Money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence, destroy money, destroy man! Thats exactly what fiat currency has done......
bugs
(09/03/2003; 21:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108116)
Enhancement request
I humbly submit my request before the table, even though I have no right.

It would be a great enhancement to be able to search the Forum Archives based on:

1) Body/message full text search (with boolean operators).

2) Sender search ("show me all the posts from XXXX").

3) Date range search in combination with #1 and #2.

I know our purchases of gold nourish these pages. I have purchased my physical from here. Thank you greatly for the excellent service, and thanks for the Forum for everything.

If I am being dumb and there is a form to perform these queries I have not located, please smack me over the head with a blunt object..
MarkeTalk
(09/03/2003; 22:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108117)
New Scandal on Wall Street in Thursday's WSJ
For those of us who have access to the Wall Street Journal online, it is wonderful to read tomorrow's headlines this evening or night before. Tomorrow's headlines will grab your attention, as the online articles grabbed mine tonight. Eliot Spitzer, the scrappy New York Attorney General, has scooped the story and beaten the SEC (lap dog that it is) to the punch. Mr. Spitzer has uncovered massive fraud amongst the hedge funds in collusion with the mutual fund industry. Surprise, surprise. The more things change on Wall Street, the more they stay the same. Same old corruption, second verse.

The culprit in all of this is a scion to one of America's biggest fortunes, the Stern family. Not being a household word, the Stern family is better known to American families as the Hartz Mountain pet food conglomerate, i.e. bird seed, flea and tick collars, etc. Anyway, what grandpa and his son so painstakingly put together over the past 50 years, the grandson, Edward, has placed some of it--not all--at risk. This is more of the silver-spoon-in-mouth disease which has spawned many tragedies. Furthermore, it is just one more expose of the excesses which have plagued Wall Street.

My prediction: This latest revelation is coming precisely at a cyclical top in stocks, which are due their seasonal and customary "crash" in September and October. The market is just aching for an excuse to sell off violently and to punish all of the newly returned stock investors who have foolishly heeded CNBC's advice. As stocks sink beneath the waves, gold will rise like the morning sun until it is high in the sky for all to see. Also relevant to this point, market analysts Arch Crawford (Crawford Perspectives) and Eric Hadik (Insiide Track) are both calling for an imminent and precipitous decline in stocks.

As far as price goes, I have been telling my clients that anything under $400/oz. will seem a bargain in years to come. Once the $400/oz. level is taken out convincingly, the gold will bolt ahead like a horse out of a barn. So to all of my clients who are reading this, check your gold holdings and if you need to add to them, please call me before everyone else does. In a panic run, I cannot guarantee that you will be able to reach me. I am on extension 102.

GC
mikal
(09/03/2003; 23:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108118)
Re: $300 gold "call"- Gold gets great free PR!
World Bank becoming more irrelevant by the day? Did the BIS order this irresistable $300 press release to put WBank out to pasture before the BIS tenants give their offices a facelift?
Lots of gold and orange and brown halloween candy making an early appearance in stores here in upstate NY and some gold, silver, red and green Christmas decorations and gifts here and there. And few will observe that gold is signalling an early holiday.
But perhaps there will be great collateral damage from the collapse of the economic system. Gold will mitigate the wounds of only a few.
And the Sobig "super" virus may return again on Sept. 11th, two weeks after the last internet attack, and two years after the WTC collapse, as a new, beefed-up Sobig variant can be activated after the current Sobig variant expires on Sept. 10th.
World equities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are trading unexpectedly higher, as if distribution was a top priority. Insider selling is at an all time record and volume is approaching old bubble exuberance. Mortgage and bond rates, along with money market and CD rates, are rising. While struggling, the dollar has not reversed its bear trend, and is weaker fundamentally. World financial derivatives nearing $200 trillion have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.
The UN's financial appendage, the World Bank, may have signalled a seminal change, a concession to gold that could end their reckless brinkmanship forever.
Ag Mountain
(09/03/2003; 23:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108119)
canamami peg wars
I wish I had your grasp of foreign exchange, then I could understand where the shooting part would factor in economically.
Gandalf the White
(09/03/2003; 23:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108120)
That is "interesting", Sir George !
MarkeTalk (09/03/03; 22:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108117)===
Thanks Sir George, (or is that Saint George the Dragon Slayer?), for the WSJ "headsup" !
Perhaps you can substitute for BB's Daily Report for a couple days ?
<;-)
DoubleEagle
(09/04/2003; 00:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108121)
Re: Melting Pot Msg #108115
It's been seven years or so since I read Atlas Shrugged. I think I'll pick it up again when my reading pile gets down to a managable level. While The Fountainhead was probably her most pure work, as far as her philosphy goes, I remember Atlas Shrugged being the better read, plot wise.

That being said, reading your post made me think of how things change, academically. When I first read The Fountainhead in Jr. High, my mother commented that both she and my father had to read it during college, and that it was actively taught by a number of professors. My parents were in school from '67-'71. When I went to college from '94-'99, any mention of Ayn Rand by my professors was a scathing denouncement. To even bring her up was to invite ridicule.

As a further aside, the book that seemed most popular to teach during my high school and college tenure was "The Awakening" by Kate Chopin. Once in high school and twice in college I had to read it. The basic plot is that a woman, realizing that she's being oppressed by men and her children (small expressions of her husband's ego), drowns herself because she just can't go on with that little revalation spinning in her head. It was claptrap the first time I read it, and was no better the third time. Now which author had more to say?

On the gold front, I'm happy to say that my personal reserves are right where I want them to be. Now to start shoveling as much fiat at my student loans as I can spare. I think I'll have just enough time to be rid of them before TSHTF.

-DoubleEagle
slingshot
(09/04/2003; 00:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108122)
I'm Having Fun Now, I'm Having Fun Now.
DJIA 9568.40 Volume 1,637,709,000 shares for the day.

We're they not howling that the stock market was going to take off if it broke 9553 on the Dow?

Sir George, drops the bomb about Hartz Mountain (another one bites the dust) and the market is looking for an excuse to punish the newly returned stock investor. Is this Pump and Dump?

A.Cohen comes out and says gold to $227 in 2004.

How about this gold glut? The mines and all that news.
We swallowed 20 tons from Greece. Are they saying that that twenty tons plus more is going to be dumped on the market sending gold to the pits? Has to be one hell of a recovery to send it down $150.00. Not to mention a very stable world.
As Sir George states gold will be a bargain at $400.

As the POG climbs I predict that the smaller denominations ,even with their higher cost, will disappear quicker than the One Ounce Coins. Some is better than none.

There is a thought for you USAGOLD. While everyone else is loading up on the the best buy, one ounce. Why not stock up on those smaller coins in anticpation of the small buyer in need.

I await the garbage spewed from the mouths of the Talking Heads. CNBC, Welcome to the Greatest Show on Earth.
Slingshot-----------------<>
Jacob Marley
(09/04/2003; 01:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108123)
ReMarx - 108109

Nope, go right ahead and ask your questions, and give us your thoughts. I will give you a few of mine. We all try to find out what this truth stuff is all about, don't we??

Where you say: [gold] has no intrinsic value -- yessirree, you are absolutely right. It is a rock just like the rest, except there's a little bit less of it. It has some unique "utilitarian" values (you've heard it all: durability, malleability, etc., and so forth), but nothing that should command the belief in its value to be multiple digit multiples of what it is today.

But! as you rightly note, it "is valued by others around the world!" First classs understatement sir, and right on the mark. For whatever reason - those who write the rules have had enough influence on the planet over the ages that gold is considered in the sub-conscious cultus of men to be the primo asset. No use trying to argue it philosophically as far as your money is concerned. Just roll with the flow, and we can talk philosophy and economics here at the round table.

At the risk of being simplistic, Keynes' mistake (and it led him to not just one paradox of contradiction) was not in denigrating gold as a monetary asset (which is absolutely correct), but was in not perceiving that it held real value in the eyes of mankind. Thus, by not recognizing its value as a traditional wealth store, as well as an escape hatch and a natural hedge against irresponsible monetary policy, and thereby not promoting forthrightly its freedom to float freely in the markets (he just seemed to want to ignore it after having seen to its demonetization), he tacitly gave in to denying the populace a means to repudiate the monetary authorities. Instead, while calling the monetary policy of a "gold standard" a barbaric relic, he tried to formulate an alternative inside a world that couldn't kick the habit.

One of his contradictions lay in a struggle between interest rates and full employment - to which you allude with a quote of his. His beef here is that domestic money supply is under the oppressive limitation of available specie, which case only improves by finding some more specie, or by acquiring it through a trade surplus. Correcto. But so you remove this constraint, now what's going to happen when you untether the currency? Whether by rule or banker discretion, you must influence the adjustment of interest rates to keep/put enough money in the system to satisfy demand, so as to keep the economy purring at some 'appropriate' level, but not so much as to create the impression that it's not really 'scarce'. What's the right level, and how do you figure it out? And how (according to Keynes' big pet peeve) do you generate and sustain full employment?

JMK rightfully figures out an axiom of human nature - people want money plain and simple. You can't really do anything about the 'want' part of this. As far as meeting the want, 2 things: you can't just make more of it without some rationale that convinces its holders to keep holding it; and you can't just re-channel this 'want' either. In other words, even if money goes up in price, substitutes don't suddenly fill in the gap. Instead money becomes more expensive, and hence harder to come by. So - goods demand diminishes, and with it the general price level, and with it unemployment goes up. But the paradox lies in that as the price level declines, real money supply increases, even though the nominal amount may not. This exerts the counterweight that 'should' help bring it all back into equilibrium again. (Once in equilibrium - which implies full employment, the devil on this side was that full employment implied wage increase pressure, leading to price inflation, whose remedy could and did involve more politically driven efforts to manage demand, supply and supply factors, including employment, than they did macroeconomic motivators.)

But while JMK recognized the political problems, he did not have a solution economically for the dilemma. In reality his penchant to remove the world from the shackles of the monetary gold standard, was never practiced, and still is not - as the world today still lives under a sort of gold standard by a contract influenced gold market. Our economic reality is largely driven by economic/political forces that favor or are inextricably bound in a world where the currency their wealth is based upon is in competition with gold - vestigially, traditionally, or core-philosophically. So, as they must keep up appearances in this currency, they must place it in a permanent entente with gold. Like the old days. No longer 'officially' backed, it still keeps a certain stability to the metal. (The rise from $35 to today's $370 follows like someone told to let off some steam, and after the first couple of blunders, figures out how to regulate the valve setting until its under ever more perfect control.)

So with that, JMK's full employment problem remains with us. Contractions don't evolve naturally into the increases in money supply brought on by lower interest rates that should jumpstart economies, and expansions don't have a natural brake that raises interest rates to choke off excess expansion - always nipping deviations in the bud before getting out of whack. Why? The short answer is that, without an unencumbered means of escape, all money policy is under the control of human (political) authority. Under pressure they will always do what is expedient, and there is no check outside of them to make them do otherwise. With gold as this 'for-whatever-reason' asset that is (physically held) no other's liability, it would in a freer world provide the veto to out-of-control controllers, but the current framework has gold controlled to perfection by having convinced enough of the world that holding promises related to its price fluctuation amounts to the same thing as holding the metal. These promises are unlimited in their creation, and meet (and satisfy) enough demand to contain the price, and so create the impression that the competing currency is as good as the gold.

So not for any theoretical reason, but thru the pragmatic reality of real-world politics, there is no escape from the system. And frankly the last thing big speculative money cares about is whether you have a job or not. Not really because they are so selfish and cold, but because the system as it is laid out is NOT really contingent on your being employed. This is one of the biggest errors of the many monetary thinkers. They think that monetary workings are based upon business fundamentals, and then blame market stupids or cabals when monetary workings don't line up with business fundamentals.

The problem is that it is the other way around - people are primarily influenced by money, and money contracts drive (in the macro sense) the real economic workings. Not the other way around. It worked that way in the gold standard. And it works that way now. In the gold standard trade balances drove economic policy, because the be all and end all was to get into surplus to acquire more monetary assets. This often meant raising domestic rates to entice foreign flows, even though it was uncalled for domestically, and crippled domestic business.

Today we see the same in exchange rates where come hell or high water we must have a strong dollar policy to encourage foreign capital flows to offset our hopelessly deficit current account - even though it puts domestic industry on the chopping block. For all of Snow's half-hearted overtures in China, he knows this is a lost cause, and is only for political show (election year looming). The US will permanently drive the dollar as strong as possible to maintain a "capital competitive advantage," all the while kind-of, maybe hoping a weaker (but not too weak) dollar will throw a bone to local industry. Too little too late, and a weaker dollar only means dearer oil that just serves to further hamper recovery. Rock and hard place. They need both ends of the spectrum, but can tolerate neither. But the lesser of evils is the strong dollar policy in their minds, as it at least buys a little more time. But in the process of keeping a brave face, the US will keep rates low and lower, and pull all kinds of wonders out of their hat, and in the process hyper-dyper inflate into delirium. All this to show big international money that the casino-US is still the best gaming table around.

Keynes is foiled again. He couldn't get it right in era US 1930s, and he would've shrugged his shoulders at 90s Japan on the deflationary side - and he can't explain the inflationary phenomenon of the US either. Not because he didn't have some good points, but because he wasn't thorough enough. Forest for the trees stuff.

The hope of some countries today is that knowing the result of a monetary policy that holds a world-recognized, genuinely scarce, held in great esteem for-whatever-reason asset like gold hostage, and leaves people no escape, they have worked to develop a currency that will not compete with gold, or any asset on a monetary basis. This euro concept recognizes monetary currency for what it is - an intrinsically worthless tool that for-whatever-reason (tender law, protocol, custom - whatever) becomes accepted and used as a means of payment, without being tied back to some commodity or property. Knowing that people want and need such a tool, they will combine both the promotion of a better administration of the tool, AND allow it be repudiated by the free market purchase of gold (without artificially-influencing contracts that have no realistic coupling to the underlier). This will be the first time in a very, very long time that this has happened.

Won't a precipitous rise in gold be just a cyclical phenomenon, offset by a preference for producing non-gold holdings in better times? Yes, after making up some significant pent up ground from decades of official gold value suppression in the gold standard days. Then cycles will run their usual course but at a permanently higher status quo.

Some people worry that new supply will adequately compensate demand at higher prices as it then pays to extract it from even the sea water (or get it from Mars??? - the next great Gold Rush???), eventually overwhelming demand and driving the price down in a firesale, until it returns to oblivion once more. Not to worry here again. Market theory will yield to political reality, and production will become a controlled enterprise. Remember the banks promoting this freely priced physical gold stuff only do so because they have a lot of it. They will not risk diluting their holdings.

So what to say about "free markets always win in the end of the day" ?? 1st, maybe they don't want lots of extra gold in the market, too? If my gold is valued very nicely, and I dispose of it as I will for things I want at a very favorable exchange, why do I want someone going out and procuring twice as much again more of it from earth, sea or outer space? I think the markets will welcome production curtailment at that time.

Even with that said, days can be pretty long, and while in the long run the market pressures typically undo artificial constraints, in the long run we're all dead anyway.

silvercollector
(09/04/2003; 04:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108124)
Tate
108064Excellent post. Pretty much ends the speculative discussion of the future of the yuan/dollar peg.
MnDan
(09/04/2003; 04:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108125)
(No Subject)
I've just lost my last thought... anyhow..to the keepers of the flame.. carry on. Dan
Dollar Bill
(09/04/2003; 05:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108126)
*>*............+
Consumers snapped up cars at one of the fastest paces ever. The Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Selling Rate (SAAR) for August auto sales was 19.0 million, which was third highest level ever. Additionally, July's rate was revised upward to 18.7 million from 17.3 million.

A recent study conducted by the Transportation Department revealed that the average household has 1.9 vehicles, but only 1.75 drivers.
An auto bubble?
Surely record breaking car sales must come to an end soon.
Remarx
(09/04/2003; 05:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108127)
Re: Keynes
@Jacob Marley #108123: Thank you! Much to think about there, and I will re-read your post carefully. I fully appreciate your pragmatic view of things; that kind of approach speaks much more to me than dogmatically viewing JMK as a 'madman who has ruined the world'.

@Max Rabbitz #108114: The snippet was from Keyenes, not Marx. That was why it seemed odd to you!
turkey hunter
(09/04/2003; 05:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108128)
why gold is glittering
http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/03/markets/gold/Good article on CNN Money site.
Goldbug 1
(09/04/2003; 06:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108129)
Closed for lack of interest?
Can anyone tell me why the gold market appears to be closed today?
Goldbug 1
(09/04/2003; 06:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108130)
Disregard my silly question........
I see NY has opened, must have been a holiday in Asia and/or Australia earlier.
Paper Avalanche
(09/04/2003; 07:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108131)
@slingshot
My posting yetserday that Abbey Joseph Cohen had predicted gold to hit $227 in 2004 was joke. I was attempting to illustrate absurdity with absurdity. I just want to make sure that you didn't read the first part of my posting only and thought that it was true. I aopologize for any confusion.

Thanks!
PA
Melting Pot
(09/04/2003; 07:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108132)
Recognizing Sovereign Default and Banking Risks.....
http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/358/10823_deposit.htmlSoviet People's Bank Deposits Gone for Good

The state will never be able to pay the debt to depositors

SNIP:

Governmental officials say, Russia should pay the foreign debt on time. For some reason, they scarcely mention something about the domestic debt. The government pays billions to foreign banks, cutting Russian people's social guarantees. In 1993 the Russian Constitutional Court pointed out, the government should not delay compensations for population's deposits. A lot of prime ministers have been changed during the decade, but no one of them was responsible for violating the law.

One may surely understand the government - it is very hard to obtain such huge sum of money. Academician Nikolay Petrakov said, the debt is about eight or nine trillion rubles worth. In other words, the debt is three times the country's annual budget. Economists calculated, if the government decided to return the debt to the people, it would be necessary to spend one-third of the national GDP during 40 years. Russian people's deposits are gone for good as a result of Yegor Gaidar's economic reforms. His close companion Yevgeny Yasin does not conceal it from reporters: "The state will never be able to return those savings. This problem cannot be solved." However, Sberbank builds fashionable offices nationwide - those offices are built on depositors' money.

END

Think about the Gokhale and Smetters Report: US $43.5 trillion in debt and growing over a trillion a year. And just like Russia, the US state will never be able to pay the debt to depositors........

Gold to $300, $227, $150 bla, bla, bla.....the WBO and A Cohen have been wrong for 3 years running, not to mention the structural sovereign, corporate and fractional reserve debts and derivatives pyramid that can never ever ever be paid because of compound interest.

The antigold war has begun in earnest, the fuse is lit and the Debt / IR time bomb is about to explode as envisioned by ANOTHER and BIG TRADER. Don't believe it? Try to withdraw $10K cash out of your bank.

From Russia with love.........

PS: Do you take the red pill, or the blue pill?

Gold never defaults! Caveat Emptor

Dollar Bill
(09/04/2003; 07:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108133)
*>*
Sir Socrates964, you said
"Note that in the 1970s, the Arabs were in a position to buy the world. In the 1980s, the Japanese were. Because of cultural barriers, neither managed to exploit the opportunity very effectively. I would bet that the Chinese will do a much better job."
Socrates964
(09/04/2003; 07:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108134)
J Marley
1. You make some excellent points in your post - most notably about the Euro being designed to accommodate gold, whose price should settle into a trading range at much higher levels. I may seem to go on a bit about my hyperinflationary experiences in Brazil, but I see a number of posters making conceptual errors regarding the dollar because they fail to distinguish between currencies as means of exchange and stores of value. The former function alone is likely to guarantee a long life for the dollar - although the exchange rate to the Yuan could theoretically go into the millions, and no-one would then want to keep their savings in it.

On this point, I admit to an error in yesterday's post. When I said that gold could go to $1m/oz, but that a Big Mac would cost $1,000, this should have been $10,000. Why?
Because my experience with hyperinflation taught me that relative prices under hyperinflation tend to be very stable, although they oscillate around equilibrium prices over time. Hence if a Big Mac costs $3.50 (i.e. 1% of an oz of gold) it is likely to continue costing 1% of an oz, barring some major change in availability of cattle/consumption patterns.

2. I nevertheless take issue with this:

"Instead money becomes more expensive, and hence harder to come by. So - goods demand diminishes, and with it the general price level, and with it unemployment goes up. But the paradox lies in that as the price level declines, real money supply increases, even though the nominal amount may not. This exerts the counterweight that 'should' help bring it all back into equilibrium again."

I'll have to dig out my copy of the General Theory, but as I recall, one of Keynes' main points was that under such conditions, industry would seek to hold up the price level and maximize profits by cutting back output. Rather than expanding the real money supply, therefore, the economy had an inherent tendency to reach an equilibrium well below that required to guarantee full employment. Hence government had a moral obligation to override the inherently selfish behavior of entrepreneurs and come to the aid of the workers.

As I've noted in the past, even Keynes couldn't resist the allure of the 'barbarous relic'. The final irony is that Keynes was 'out-fiated' by the Americans: the international currency he proposed, Bancor, was gold-backed, but Harry Dexter White managed to weaken the link to gold by inserting the dollar between it and all the other major currencies.
Skydog
(09/04/2003; 07:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108135)
@Melting Pot, your #108132
YOu said, "The antigold war has begun in earnest, the fuse is lit and the Debt / IR time bomb is about to explode as envisioned by ANOTHER and BIG TRADER. Don't believe it? Try to withdraw $10K cash out of your bank."

Last month, a colleague of mine in Orlando, Florida deposited a rather sizable check to his banking account. When he tried to withdraw $5000 in cash the bank manager asked him what he intended to do with it. His reply was, "I don't think that is any of your business!" The bank manager replied, "You're correct, however, we reserve the right to close your account anyway"...which they promptly did.

He is in the process of filing a commercial lien against them for violating his right to contract.
canamami
(09/04/2003; 07:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108136)
Reply to Socrates964
You make interesting points, particularly respecting the distinction between a means of exchange and a store of value.

My question: Can the two be completely divorced from one another? For example, has there ever been a means of exchange (i.e., "currency") which egregiously hyperinflated (akin to early Weimar Germany) which was not in the end replaced BOTH as a unit of exchange and a store of value? Once hyperinflation sets in, the currency must replaced in toto.

In brief, once a currency ceases to serve any meaningful (not ideal or perfect, merely meaningful) function as a store of value, then it also eventually must be replaced as a means of exchange.







a nation of one
(09/04/2003; 08:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108137)
...

It seems the question is whether the DOW can go above 10,000. Obviously it can, even if based only on widely publicized statements that stock values need not be related to returns but merely to potential growth. Another word for this is optimism. "Creating confidence" is a valid way to think of it. Confidence games are noted for their alacrity in building up assurances, then extracting money from the assured. Also, to me, the time scale seems blatant. Early September, following a three month season that saw very strong pog, and an upward DOW based on small volume with no real business advance, a lull in the war, people coming back to work after being on vacations, a month to go before reason sets in. Surely the stock buying power of those who are awake must exceed that of those perpetually sleep. These have been selling stocks and buying gold. Some people use the airwaves to promote their own purposes. Few tell the news.
Socrates964
(09/04/2003; 08:41:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108138)
canamami
"My question: Can the two be completely divorced from one another? For example, has there ever been a means of exchange (i.e., "currency") which egregiously hyperinflated (akin to early Weimar Germany) which was not in the end replaced BOTH as a unit of exchange and a store of value? Once hyperinflation sets in, the currency must replaced in toto."

In theory, you're right, all currencies are eventually replaced -although they may be replaced by something equally rotten that just has a few less noughts on the end or a new name.

In practice, it all depends on monetary policy. In order to end hyperinflation, you have to administer nasty medicine by confiscating savings/repudiating debts or, as Brazil did in 1994 introducing a new currency at a massively inflated conversion rate which allowed producers/retailers enormous profits upfront that made a stable price commitment more palatable.

In some cases (e.g. Turkey), there is no political will to tackle underlying economic problems, so that hyperinflation becomes institutionalized through the wholesale adoption of indexation mechanisms. Evidently, at some point, the Turks will elect a strongman who will tackle the issue, but what you must appreciate is that there is a world of difference between Weimar Germany, where there were no portections against inflation, and Brazil in the 80s and 90s/contemporary Turkey, where you were screwed slowly and comfortably over several decades.

My own gut feeling is that the US public lack the sang-froid/fatalism of the Brazilians/Turks and are much more likely to freak out and demand an instant political solution to a slumping dollar, simply because of cultural factors (nor will there be any shortage of unscrupulous politicians to provide one).

The most important thing to appreciate, however, is that long before this process reaches its conclusion, a distrust of the dollar will gradually develop. You can see early signs, in that Russians apparently prefer to stuff their matresses with euros.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/04/2003; 10:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108139)
Bullion priced right to help you build your financial base.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Buy here at LOW PREMIUM (only 1% over our cost) and enjoy free shipping on 25 ounces. Why pay more elsewhere?

Gold Buyers Group Special
admin
(09/04/2003; 10:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108141)
MK's Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Updated.
New Quick Notes.
Comment on the [flawed] World Bank gold analysis:

Speaking of the World Bank, in a second report issued yesterday, it predicted that the gold price would fall below the $300 mark in the months to come due to new mine production coming on line and a slowdown to the dehedging process. I wouldn't quarrel with the comment on dehedging (i.e., it is likely to slow down, though even that is open to debate). I would add though that hedging has been a major drag to the gold price since the early 1990s and with that strategy now relegated for the interim to the dust bin of gold market history, prospects for the yellow metal are significantly brighter as a result. It is the absence of hedging which will help the price of gold in the long run with the recent buy-backs amounting to some short-term icing on the cake.............. The comment about "increased production" from the mines is in direct conflict with statements made by members of the industry themselves who admit that depleted exploration budgets have most of the majors in a static to declining production mode for a long time to come...........Trying to make some sense out of what appears to be an insensible report, I wonder how much of this attitude toward gold at the World Bank has to do with all the third world gold lending and sales that institution has quietly sanctioned, or least looked the other way on over the years, and how much has to do with honest market research and analysis. In the case of gold sales, the price increases over the past two years raise the question why the reserves were given up for paper promises in the first place. Beyond the poor portfolio performance already logged, some of these same institutions when they put on their gold lender hat have run the risk of never seeing their gold again in the wake of massive gold carry trade defaults up and down the line. Is it any wonder that we see a report like this published as the forces of a gold bull market gather strength??....... Perhaps in the end, that is what's behind this report which suspiciously goes against the bullish grain in the current gold market. The World Bank -- a Keynesian institution from the beginning and, in the final outcome, a Keynesian institution still, and all-the-while anti-gold as they come."

_____


Also a comment on the Great Wall of Indifference TreasSec encounters in Asia........
Great Albino Bat
(09/04/2003; 11:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108142)
A bank owner and Pres. of same, sells choice assets off....

In Spain, the president and part owner of Eurobank has been relieved of his post by the Banco de Espa--a, the Spanish Central Bank, due to irregularities at his bank, Eurobank.

Among other things, the president of Eurobank, which is in liquidation, SOLD OFF ASSETS AT BELOW APPRAISED VALUE.

This may explain the funny and seemingly irrational actions of Central Banks around the world, who have LENT or SOLD OFF their gold, with no likelihood of ever seeing it again.

What's going on? It might well be, that the actual owners of those Central Banks - not the legal owners, but those shady characters who order things done, from behind the scenes - may well have seen years ago, what is clearly apparent today: that debt is totally out of control and a great deal of it will be uncollectable; which means that the CBs are done for, their goose is cooked; their usefulness at one time, is gone, and these banks are History as we write.

What to do? Sell off the CB assets at the lowest possible prices, so the shady characters can pick up lots and lots of gold, with which they will be the Masters (once again) when this present "Financial Architecture" is dust.

Seen this way, that silly selling and leasing of irrecoverable gold, makes a lot of sense.

Guano from the GAB













TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 11:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108143)
U.S. dollar gets propped up as Japan steps in, BOJ buys
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030903/markets_forex_intervention_1.htmlTOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan was seen intervening in the foreign exchange market intermittently above 116 yen on Thursday, selling yen for dollars, traders said.

-----------

Thanks, BoJ. I will spend them, weak or strong, but am always happiest to spend them strong -- receiving more gold and other tangibles for each dollar. So while I work to enjoy a better lifestyle through my various purchases (food on the table, gold savings, and a truck with a full tank of fuel) I hope you never grow weary of your growing stash of U.S. bonds instead.

In simple terms, that is where the rubber meets the road.

R.
TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 11:38:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108144)
Fed funds market trading in line with FOMC target, Fed adds $13 billion
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_fed_openmarket_2.htmlToday $9 billion was added to the reserves of the banking system through overnight repos, and $4 billion was added longer term via 28-day RPs, thus easily negating today's maturity effects of $12.25 billion previously added.

There is no meaningful limit to the Fed's power to add money to the lendable reserves of the nation's banking system. That is not to say there is no meaningful consequences to same. Protect your purchasing power with hard asset diversification.

R.
ge
(09/04/2003; 11:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108145)
CyclePro Elliott Wave Prespective on gold
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htmOne way of enjoying summer time while sitting on physical gold is to figure out Elliott counts. It is not particularly useful but it better then watching the TV. Anyway, Cyclepro tries to improve on the Elliott count of Alf Field (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field082603.html )

He says:
Alf Field wrote a nice artice at 321 Gold website: "Elliott Wave and the Gold Price". Mr. Field displays his wave outlook and projection for the completion of the first major wave up. CyclePro agrees with his assessment of the minor wave 1 up to $382 in February, 2003, but for the subsequent wave 2 we have a difference of opinion. From my earlier forecast commentary, I said that I thought a 2 month correction (for minor wave 2) was too short for wave 1 which was 23 months. I had categorized this shorter wave 2 as my alternate count. For my preferred count, I was expecting a more complicated wave 2 structure where the move down from $382 to $320 was wave "A" followed by an anticipated complicated "B" rally, then later followed by another sell-off for "C" that took the price down to the low $300's. What I think we are seeing in the chart now is my "B" wave being played out in a 5 wave structure (labeled a-b-c-d-e) to complete "B". Until gold prices move substantially above the previous wave 1 high this scenario remains viable. In this scenario, my subsequent outlook for wave "C" is good support at $318-320 area with $305 area as the most likely maximum pullback.
Ag Mountain
(09/04/2003; 12:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108146)
canamami, Socrates; exchange vs. store of value
Good thoughts. We shouldn't miss the subtle fact that around the world the means of exchange (I'll call it currency) generally all fail as a store of value, some moreso than others.

That's why banks have to pay various interest on savings accounts, and that's why bonds exist with yields. The more the currency fails as a store of value, the more we see the market demanding higher interest for compensation.

Lots of contract and derivative arrangements can be used to keep a deadbeat currency on its feet (hedging against losses in purchasing power over time), so I'm not as quick as canamami to say once a currency ceases to serve a meaningful function as a store of value that it must be replaced as a means of exchange.

It might be better to say that once the hedging tricks and derivatives fail to bridge the gap, THEN we wake up to something completely different!
Gandalf the White
(09/04/2003; 12:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108147)
Who was it that said that $375. was being DEFENDED tooth and nail ?
Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) 9/4/03
Open $371.5 HIGH $376.0 low $370.7 Settle $374.0
Change from yesterday = -$1.0
Volume = 40389 Open Interest as of yesterday = 194,602
===
Looks as if the battle line is drawn !
Precious metal stocks are looking good today --
PERHAPS the GOLDEN day is near ?
<;-)
TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 14:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108148)
That
was
a
fine
post,
Jake.

R.
Waverider
(09/04/2003; 15:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108149)
Oh Tears......
Another day without the DMR as Black Blade is working in the field....BUT....we DO get MKs Gold Commentary and Review...thank you!
TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 15:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108150)
Reuters says... [I say...]
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold was lifted off early lows by a weaker dollar Thursday, but closed in negative territory as commodity funds metabolized the piles of gold swelling their books after weeks of binge buying.

[Metabolizing the worthiness of these contracts to truly hedge anything in a paper storm.]

"Funds seem to be a little bit quieter today -- the market generally," said Bernard Hunter, a vice president at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "Some light physical demand is just enough to keep the market supported. It's getting some help from the dollar as well."

[Please note that merely "light" physical buying could not "keep the market supported" -- unless it were also true that the amount of physical metal being offered for sale were similarly "light". And that shred is true!]

...The firmer euro enhanced the bullion purchasing power of European investors.

[For many months running we continue to note how the media NEVER suggest similarly during periods of stronger dollars that it enhances the gold buying power of Americans.]

"People are a little disappointed by the fact that the market didn't have any follow through last night from yesterday's action. We were all looking for higher numbers," said a gold broker.

[Yes, looking for higher NUMBERS merely. That is the problem. They would get higher prices if they tried looking instead for a greater QUANTITY of metal.]

That's probably enough of that...

[R.]
Melting Pot
(09/04/2003; 15:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108151)
What of the LBMA mess? (ANOTHER) / Prospective German Sales of Gold.
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlWhat of the LBMA mess?

Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry ( same people buying ) there is none left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.

One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html

Prospective German Sales of Gold.

Speculation surrounding the future sales of gold by the leading Central Bank holders of Gold, received clarity today.

Within the auspices of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, the gold market has been speculating on the review and renewal of the "Washington Agreement". The market felt that the leading holders of gold want to sell their gold holding, but it became clear that the bulk of these sales would have to come from the leading Central Bank signatories to the Washington Agreement, Germany, France and Italy. The most talked about vocal of these three has been Germany, leading the market to believe they would be significant sellers.

Today, Thursday 4th September, Finance Minister Hans Eichel clarified Germany's position regarding sales of its own gold. He said that he would envisage the sale of only small quantities of gold by the Bundesbank if a new international agreement on gold sales is reached.

"The gold market is sensitive and if the Bundesbank takes part in a new gold agreement, they can only enter the market in small amounts," he said.

This is good news for the gold market whilst tacitly indicating that the other two, with a greater propensity to holding gold in their reserves, will not be significant sellers, if at all, of their own gold holdings.

With only minor Central Banks still indicating they would be sellers of gold, the market will have to get used to the idea of greatly diminished gold supplies emanating from the "Official" sources.

Additionally, his statements have encouraged the market to believe there will be a renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

Posted on behalf of

Gold-AuthenticMoney
Julian D. W. Phillips, Editor

A person thinking of purchasing physical gold should see the Bundesbank statement as fact. They openly admit to lending in the past and no chance of selling real gold in the future. This is a clear indication that a solid decision was made at the BIS meeting ( see my post ) ! All CBs will now slowly stop all leasing operations and allow the market to size itself. The important players, the oil states, will have their paper covered without question! But, for all others, the great scramble is about to begin!

Oil now must rise if the US$ and the currency system is to survive. Japan has reached the end. They must do their best to help the dollar rise against the yen. To this end they will maintain all US bonds and use all new capital to buy gold and oil!

U.S. dollar gets propped up as Japan steps in, BOJ buys

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030903/mark...rvention_1.html

TOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan was seen intervening in the foreign exchange market intermittently above 116 yen on Thursday, selling yen for dollars, traders said.


Any country without gold will be found in a disadvantaged state!


If you had oil in the ground, that over time could be worth over one trillion US$, would you buy gold for all to see? No. If you had this much wealth, would you want others to see you as getting "rich" from oil sales? No. How could you hold and build your massive wealth over many years, but still have everyone view this people as "in debt and just making it"?

The answer comes from the distant past. Take in gold as the CBs force it to fall against all other forms of value.

But, how can 100million + ozs of gold be equal to all the oil in Arabia? It all depends on how it's valued, simple yes?

If a CB says gold is $300oz, we say he is nuts! But, if $300 or $250 gold buy $19 oil, perhaps the CB is smart! It is far better if $19/oil buys $300 gold than $100/oil buy $5,000 gold!

What if the oil states offered to buy gold with oil, OUTRIGHT? No currencies involved. " We will produce flat out, all the oil you want. And, we offer this oil as payment, per barrel, to buy ( say? ) 25US dollars or gold priced by us, at ( say? ) $10,000oz.!"

The answer is very simple, the world would sell them gold for oil. I tell you now, this almost happened!

You think long and hard on this as the outcome would have been far different from what all think.

Instead, the BIS set up a plan where gold would be slowly brought down to production price. To do this required some oil states to take the long side of much leased/forward gold deals even as they "bid for physical under a falling market". Using a small amount of in ground oil as backing they could hold huge positions without being visible. For a long time they were the only ones holding much of this paper. Then, the Asians began to compete on the physical side.

How will this all end? As the CBs never sold much of their gold, they are still locked to the deals thru the BIS. In the real world it was stocks of gold outside the governments that got traded. And that trading multiplied many times. Today, more gold is traded than exists! This paper today, has become the "gold pricing standard" without backing. There is no way out! As we have now reached production cost, we have reached, "THE END"! Without real physical to supply the oil states, they WILL bid for gold with oil! The BIS will do the only thing they can, halt all trading and declare gold a "world oil currency"! To that end, all forms of paper gold will burn. How long till this starts? I understand that the CBs are slowly winding down lending, then sales. This will, no doubt start a paper panic at some time. It could take weeks or a year, I do not know.

As for the old agreement of oil/gold ratio, it went out the window after the gulf war.

Many wait for the next great bull market in gold to begin before they buy. Why buy now and lose interest or stock market gains? They will miss the greatest investment ever to come in ones lifetime! The powers of this world have already begun this motion. People of simple thought have but to buy physical gold and make low as the financial wars begin! You see, gold was cornered this year. It is done. No Central Bank will sell it's 50, 100, 200 million ozs gold when 600 million is needed! I ask you, how can currency price gold? Indeed, no price will work! You think any form of "paper gold" will stand this fire? Can we do battle with lions? When oil will not take currency without gold the havenots will not sit still!

"When a thousand hungry lions fight over one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with whats in their belly".

A world waits for something to happen that is done.

CoBra(too)
(09/04/2003; 16:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108152)
Snow in China
Wondering why Snow is trying to persuade the Chinese to loosen up on their currency controls, instead of implementing stiff import tariffs?
I guess, all of you do too, wondering I mean!

... and meantime France and Germany blasted and simultaneously rejected Powell's new UN resolution too - cb2
Operative
(09/04/2003; 16:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108153)
@ Melting Pot - Great Post!
Thank you for the summary/update from parts of the Trail.
Watching ANOTHER'S prophecy meld into the daily news headlines is both exciting and scary at the same moment. I cannot help but speculate on what the New World Order will look like. Not very good I am afraid. Bidding you a good evening sir, and thanks again.
Operative
(09/04/2003; 16:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108154)
@ Waverider
Passing the box of Kleenex to you.
Agreed, while MK offers up great reading material,(bowing towards MK) I do sorely miss that ole scraggly Blade and his "down home" writing style. We pray for his safe return soon, yes?
Operative
(09/04/2003; 17:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108155)
Mail For Gandalf
I have ordered a box of doggy treats from Pets R Us for you to hand out judiciously as you deem fit. A box of 'bones' for the boys, each marked with increasing numbers starting at 390 and thereafter in increments of ten. While not questioning the magical abilities of our beloved Wizard, I thought the boys would appreciate something they could sink thier teeth into from time to time as well. PS) enjoyed the light show earlier in the week, impressive!
Cavan Man
(09/04/2003; 17:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108156)
Hi Melting Pot
Can you provide the link to the German CB referenced comment/quote? Certianly is interesting on the eve of an IMF meeting in DUBAI. Wouldn't want to SPECulate too much there would we now?
TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 18:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108157)
Cavan Man, you can find a hint of the quote within the latest article I posted
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030904/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) -

[...scroll down 12 paragraphs...]

...There was little reaction to statements from German Finance Minister Hans Eichel that he would envisage the sale of only a small amount of Bundesbank gold if a new international agreement on gold sales is reached.

The gold market has been helped in recent weeks by speculation that the 1999 Washington Agreement limiting European central bank gold sales could be renewed at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Dubai later this month.

The original pact expires at the end of 2004 and provided predictability on government gold disposals.

--------(see url, repeated above)-----

R.
Federal_Reserves
(09/04/2003; 19:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108158)
NASDAQ Dog of the DAY? CERS
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cers31% drop in a single day. No earnings, and a clinical trial goes bad. Imagine if you held a bagload of
this one. I'd want to take someone to trial. But then you would have to be clinically insane to buy it in the first place.

Why do people waste time investing in a piece of paper with no profit and no chance of ever making one?

OUCH!



steady
(09/04/2003; 19:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108159)
revaluing currency question
if china lets there currency revalue wont that mean that in terms of gold it will devalue gold for them even stimulating there appetite more? check mate on level two of threee dimensional chess!
silvester
(09/04/2003; 19:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108160)
usagold.com msg#: 108148

Who's Jake?
Paper Avalanche
(09/04/2003; 19:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108161)
@Melting Pot - RE: (9/4/03; 15:32:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 108151)
Brilliant.

I am honored to be in your company.

PA
Remarx
(09/04/2003; 20:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108162)
Doin' my ABC's
Just received my copy of the "ABC's of Gold Investing" and have read a great deal of it already this evening. The first chapter helped me to understand intellectually where my instincts have been leading me over the past few months. Thank you Marie, and, of course, Mr. Kosares!
TownCrier
(09/04/2003; 20:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108163)
Hi Silvester
With 'Jake' I was using a familiar form of Jacob, in reference to the post offered by Jacob Marley today.

R.
Operative
(09/04/2003; 20:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108164)
UN: Foreign Investments Falling
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAFZKNK7KD.htmlUS and UK big losers with investers says the UN. Exception near bottom of article says mining was one area continuing to see dollar flows into.
Gandalf the White
(09/04/2003; 20:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108165)
Sir Silvester's Question --- <;-)
silvester (9/4/03; 19:38:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 108160)
(Re: TC's message --)usagold.com msg#: 108148
Who's Jake?
==
Sir Silvester, I am guessing that "Jake" was the author of message # 108140 -- and did not desire to maintain his Forum posting status by following the easy rules of this Forum.
<;-)
Operative
(09/04/2003; 20:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108166)
Innovative Way To Avoid The "Bone Pile"
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA83GXI7KD.htmlCanada giving millions to US company to keep plant in Canada instead of moving to Mexico. An idea whose time is now upon us? Wonder how many extra printing presses our government would need to keep what is left of our manufacturing here in the US from "offshoring"?
Gandalf the White
(09/04/2003; 20:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108167)
OOPS --- Thanks for the REAL Answer Town Crier !
You had me faked out also !
<;-(
Operative
(09/04/2003; 20:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108168)
On The Other Hand.....ANOTHER Take On The Spin By The World Bank
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030904/15/3dy0r.htmlLooks like the Gold/PM Funds are sure to repeat last year's outstanding performance. Gold going higher.
Operative
(09/04/2003; 20:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108169)
Why Gold Is Glittering
http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/03/markets/gold/Article explains (what you will NOT hear/see on CNBC) some of the reasons our favorite metal is moving upward. Will give this writer some credit for acknowledging some of gold's more valid points.
misetich
(09/04/2003; 20:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108170)
"What, WE Worry?"
http://www.pimco.com/IO/Sep03/index.htmSnip:

My book's thesis rests on the growing reality that the U.S. is overextended, not just militarily but economically. We are trying to do too much, borrow too much, spend too much and sooner, perhaps later, we will have to suffer the consequences. We are a country in the beginning stages of what can be aptly described as hegemonic decay.
............
Empires take decades if not centuries to wither and the perspective is more easily viewed from a rear view mirror as opposed to a windshield.
.............
Chart III shows the potential for Chinese water torture in two different forms. First since its monthly trade surplus of $10 billion+ with the United States implies a $120 billion annual addition to its dollar reserves, there will come a time when their hundreds of billions if not a half trillion or so in holdings of U.S. notes and bonds look a tad too risky. In turn the hundreds of billions that the Japanese and other Asian countries have been buying in order to keep their currencies competitive with the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) and the U.S. dollar will be subject to a sanity check as well. The currency/bonds/stocks of a reflating economy engaged in guns and butter, Hummer and Hummvee spending of near historical proportions are bad investments. Sooner, perhaps later, our Asian creditors will wake up and smell the coffee. Perhaps their java will take the form of dollar or Treasury Note sales. Perhaps the aroma will resemble a revaluation of the Yuan and then the Yen. Either way we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living. Mark these words well for what they're worth (not much some will say): China holds the keys to our kingdom, and our Hummers. Their willingness to buy our bonds, their philosophy of fixing their currency to the U.S. dollar will one day be tested. And should their patience be found wanting, all of their neighboring Asian China wannabes will move in near unison. Reflation's second round will have begun, U.S. interest rates will rise, our goods in the malls and the showrooms will be less affordable, and the process of national belt tightening and increased savings will have begun. Are the Newman's worrying yet? Not if they bought stocks six months ago. Not if they refinanced their home in early June or bought that Hummer with 0% financing. But they will. The Newman's represent your future, your country, and your money and to think otherwise would clearly be MAD.

*************
Misetich

Gross on a roll. Is he accumulating Gold?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express
Operative
(09/04/2003; 21:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108171)
Central Bank Paying Double For Gold
http://allafrica.com/stories/200309040472.htmlA most interesting development. Near end of article I believe a typo occured. Should read tons not ounces is my guess.
MK
(09/04/2003; 21:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108172)
All....
It occurred to me today that we are nearing our fifth anniversary on September 20th. We will have a major contest.....and generally celebrate this extraordinary discussion group. We have come a long way from that hectic first day when I basically was trying to handle the whole load myself (didn't last long). We had a lot of posting code requests but only a handful who actually posted.

That was a day interesting firsts.

Our first poster was 'bmacd' who inadvertently helped create the Round Table concept by summoning the nerve to make that first post. For doing so I remarked that she should be called 'the Lion-Hearted'. The concept developed from there and lingers to this day.

Our first double post....by FOA!

Our first prediction (by FOA): " I think myself and Another will have much participation with this new discussion group! It will, no doubt, be followed by many Gold investors." He was right on that one, too.

Since that first day, the discussion has been continuous without a single day passing where somebody somewhere didn't have something to say about gold and the economy.

Looks like Ph in LA and Goldfly, and of course FOA (assuming he returns some day) are our longest continuous posters...

It's been a great ride, my fellow goldmeisters. In humble appreciation........MK

Gandalf the White
(09/04/2003; 21:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108173)
Thanks SIR MK ! <;-)
MK (9/4/03; 21:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 108172)
>SNIP>
All.... It occurred to me today that we are nearing our fifth anniversary on September 20th. We will have a major contest.....
===
WOWSERS -- Fifth Anniversary CONTEST !!
I knew you had something up your sleeve.
<;-)
mikal
(09/04/2003; 22:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108174)
Asian countries' U.S. holdings maxxed?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/willettalway090503.htmlThe Hashimoto Factor
Brady Willett & Todd Alway
Excerpts: "Asian countries are estimated to be in control of more than 70% of global currency reserves, or more than $1.2 Trillion in U.S. dollars.� Accordingly, any significant attempt at disinvestment by a major holder of U.S. debt � China, Japan � or concerted sell-off by a collection of lesser players � Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore (which hold more in U.S. Treasuries combined than Mainland China) � would invariably produce a precipitous decline in the greenback. Under such a scenario the U.S. economy would threaten a complete collapse regardless of any attempted stimulus measures from the Fed or government.....
In short, since other countries continue to mirror Japan's penchant for U.S. debt, since foreign ownership of U.S. assets has reached unprecedented (from available data) levels, and since burgeoning U.S. dollar reserves are stocked inside Asian central banks, the dynamics of the U.S. backed neo-liberal order have, seemingly suddenly, been altered. This doesn't foretell of fire and brimstone raining down on the U.S. economy at any moment � ratios such as debt/GDP, and current account deficit/GDP are hardly absolutes in predicting near term capital movements, and economists like Krugman have been arguing that "the dollar is vulnerable" and "foreigners are reluctant to make long-term financial commitments to the U.S. economy" since 1991 (or before the real explosion in foreign investment arrived) but it does show a crack in the foundations of the American empire. Quite frankly, should current trends continue the consent of foreign governments will be the main force holding the U.S. world order together � reversing the hostage situation the U.S. previously and currently imposes on many economies. In the future, the U.S. rather than its former dependants may be the one subject to the "austerity" measures demanded by bondholders."
mikal
(09/04/2003; 22:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108175)
Does the hard sell end at next month's auction?
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr090403.shtmlFOLLY & FRAUD
WHAT IT'S REALLY COSTING US
By: Ed Henry -Excerpt:
"The national debt has increased $561.8 billion so far this year with one month to go before we reach the close of the government's fiscal year on September thirtieth. This represents the real deficit, not what the Beltway Bandits and their loyal or ignorant propaganda spinsters tell you.
Here is the sad fact, direct from the U.S. Treasury's
Bureau of Public Debt to the penny:
The column titled "Investors" is what the government calls "Debt Held by the Public" and is meant to lull you into believing that's all you must repay plus annual interest.
The column titled "Entitlements & Perks" is what the government assigns the dubious title of "Intragovernmental Holdings" to make you believe that the government owes itself, that one governmental department owes another, or that it can be paid off without taxpayer money. It's a complete scam and requires explanation.
Ninety-three percent of the "Entitlements & Perks" category is composed of 19 entitlement trust funds that are not real trusts; i.e., they have no viable assets�only debt markers. The other seven percent is composed of more than 120 trust funds that represent "perks" for federal employees, politicians, judges, and "gift accounts" for various departments. There are also a few philanthropic accounts where the cash was spent long ago. (see "Trust Fund List")
Essentially, surplus money generated by entitlements like Social Security are ripped off by the government in a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, and other private sector crooks look like children at play. The result is double taxation through the pretense of being able to both spend and save the same money.
What's important to notice today is twofold.
First, during the month of August the government was not able to borrow as much money under legitimate contract with investors as they would have liked. Call it a decline in confidence on the part of investors or what others have called "the perfect storm" affecting the bond market.
After borrowing $86 billion in July, the government was only capable of selling $45 billion worth of treasuries in August when they put much more on the block."
MarkeTalk
(09/04/2003; 23:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108176)
Bear rally in US Dollar over?
The action of the foreign currencies over the last two days has convinced me that the nine-week bear market rally in the US Dollar is over. There appears to be stiff overhead resistance at 99.50, where the US Dollar Index has bumped its head three times. With today's big jump in the Euro and similar rally in gold from its daily lows, the US Dollar Index sold off sharply at the end of the trading session. In tonight's overseas markets, the Euro and Swiss are extending their gains, thus breaking out of their basing chart patterns.

From a seasonal and cyclical perspective, the fall months are usually good for gold and the currencies while bad for equities. I have no reason to believe otherwise this time around. And with the approach of the second anniversary of September 11th (on a full moon nonetheless), tensions will be heightened even more. The telephone was ringing this afternoon at Centennial, which is a barometer of people's anxiety in general. For those clients of mine who missed my post yesterday, I encourage you to review your gold and/or silver holdings. If you need to add to them, please call me before the market begins to run away to the upside. I am on extension 102.

GC
slingshot
(09/04/2003; 23:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108177)
Paper Avalanche
I took the bait. Hook,Line and Sinker. AJC has a very low credibility with me. Guess I am tired of all the negative press on Gold. With all the egg on my face, I will just have to make an omelette ;0)

Slingshot---------------------<>
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 00:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108179)
A reminder for Druid -- ex msg#: 108178
As is requested in the forum guidelines, and specifically stated at the bottom of the posting page:

"Please do not ... promote competitors ... [etc etc]..."

Thanks for your kind attention and understanding of this important business detail.

R.
Druid
(09/05/2003; 00:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108180)
TownCrier (9/5/03; 00:45:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 108179)
My apologies, as soon as I hit the submit button, I realized my mistake. Thanks for the reminder.

Druid
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 01:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108181)
Another timely excerpt in light of recent discussion topics
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/assignats.htmlFrom the Gilded Opinion this time, for the consideration especially of Mssrs AgMountain, canamami, and Socrates on currency and store-of-value.

excerpts from: " "

...Mingled with the financial argument was a strong political plea. The National Assembly had determined to confiscate the vast real property of the French Church,--the pious accumulations of fifteen hundred years. There were princely estates in the country, bishops' palaces and conventual buildings in the towns; these formed between one-fourth and one-third of the entire real property of France, and amounted in value to at least two thousand million livres. By a few sweeping strokes all this became the property of the nation. Never, apparently, did a government secure a more solid basis for a great financial future.

There were two special reasons why French statesmen desired speedily to sell these lands. First, a financial reason,--to obtain money to relieve the government. Secondly, a political reason,--to get this land distributed among the thrifty middle-classes, and so commit them to the Revolution and to the government which gave their title.

It was urged, then, that the issue of four hundred millions of paper, (not in the shape of interest-bearing bonds, as had at first been proposed, but in notes small as well as large), would give the treasury something to pay out immediately, and relieve the national necessities; that, having been put into circulation, this paper money would stimulate business; that it would give to all capitalists, large or small, the means for buying from the nation the ecclesiastical real estate, and that from the proceeds of this real estate the nation would pay its debts and also obtain new funds for new necessities: never was theory more seductive both to financiers and statesmen.

It would be a great mistake to suppose that the statesmen of France, or the French people, were ignorant of the dangers in issuing irredeemable paper money. No matter how skillfully the bright side of such a currency was exhibited, all thoughtful men in France remembered its dark side.

They knew too well, from that ruinous experience, seventy years before, in John Law's time, the difficulties and dangers of a currency not well based and controlled.

They had then learned how easy it is to issue it; how difficult it is to check its overissue; how seductively it leads to the absorption of the means of the workingmen and men of small fortunes; how heavily it falls on all those living on fixed incomes, salaries or wages; how securely it creates on the ruins of the prosperity of all men of meagre means a class of debauched speculators, the most injurious class that a nation can harbor,--more injurious, indeed, than professional criminals whom the law recognizes and can throttle; how it stimulates overproduction at first and leaves every industry flaccid afterward; how it breaks down thrift and develops political and social immorality.

All this France had been thoroughly taught by experience. Many then living had felt the result of such an experiment--the issues of paper money under John Law, a man who to this day is acknowledged one of the most ingenious financiers the world has ever known; and there were then sitting in the National Assembly of France many who owed the poverty of their families to those issues of paper. Hardly a man in the country who had not heard those who issued it cursed as the authors of the most frightful catastrophe France had then experienced.

And it would also be a mistake to suppose that the National Assembly, which discussed this matter, was composed of mere wild revolutionists; no inference could be more wide of the fact. Whatever may have been the character of the men who legislated for France afterward, no thoughtful student of history can deny, despite all the arguments and sneers of reactionary statesmen and historians, that few more keen-sighted legislative bodies have ever met than this first French Constitutional Assembly. In it were such men as Siey�s, Bailly, Necker, Mirabeau, Talleyrand, DuPont de Nemours and a multitude of others who, in various sciences and in the political world, had already shown and were destined afterward to show themselves among the strongest and shrewdest men that Europe has yet seen.

But the current toward paper money had become irresistible. It was constantly urged, and with a great show of force, that if any nation could safely issue it, France was now that nation; that she was fully warned by her severe experience under John Law; that she was now a constitutional government, controlled by an enlightened, patriotic people,--not, as in the days of the former issues of paper money, an absolute monarchy controlled by politicians and adventurers; that she was able to secure every livre of her paper money by a virtual mortgage on a landed domain vastly greater in value than the entire issue; that, with men like Bailly, Mirabeau and Necker at her head, she could not commit the financial mistakes and crimes from which France had suffered under John Law, the Regent Duke of Orleans and Cardinal Dubois.

Oratory prevailed over science and experience. In April, 1790, came the final decree to issue four hundred millions of livres in paper money, based upon confiscated property of the Church for its security. The deliberations on this first decree and on the bill carrying it into effect were most interesting; prominent in the debate being Necker, Du Pont de Nemours, Maury, Cazal�s, Petion, Bailly and many others hardly inferior. The discussions were certainly very able; no person can read them at length in the "Moniteur," nor even in the summaries of the parliamentary history, without feeling that various modern historians have done wretched injustice to those men who were then endeavoring to stand between France and ruin.

This sum--four hundred millions, so vast in those days, was issued in assignats, which were notes secured by a pledge of productive real estate and bearing interest to the holder at three per cent. No irredeemable currency has ever claimed a more scientific and practical guarantee for its goodness and for its proper action on public finances. On the one hand, it had what the world recognized as a most practical security,--a mortgage an productive real estate of vastly greater value than the issue. On the other hand, as the notes bore interest, there seemed cogent reason for their being withdrawn from circulation whenever they became redundant.

...the National Assembly, to explain the advantages of this new currency, issued an address to the French people. In this address it spoke of the nation as "delivered by this grand means from all uncertainty and from all ruinous results of the credit system." It foretold that this issue "would bring back into the public treasury, into commerce and into all branches of industry strength, abundance and prosperity."

Some of the arguments in this address are worth recalling, and, among them, the following:--"Paper money is without inherent value unless it represents some special property. Without representing some special property it is inadmissible in trade to compete with a metallic currency, which has a value real and independent of the public action; therefore it is that the paper money which has only the public authority as its basis has always caused ruin where it has been established; that is the reason why the bank notes of 1720, issued by John Law, after having caused terrible evils, have left only frightful memories. Therefore it is that the National Assembly has not wished to expose you to this danger, but has given this new paper money not only a value derived from the national authority but a value real and immutable, a value which permits it to sustain advantageously a competition with the precious metals themselves."

But the final declaration was, perhaps, the most interesting. It was as follows:--

"These assignats, bearing interest as they do, will soon be considered better than the coin now hoarded, and will bring it out again into circulation."

The king was also induced to issue a proclamation recommending that his people receive this new money without objection.

All this caused great joy....

...There were, indeed, some gainsayers. These especially appeared among the clergy, who, naturally, abhorred the confiscation of Church property. Various ecclesiastics made speeches, some of them full of pithy and weighty arguments, against the proposed issue of paper, and there is preserved a sermon from one priest threatening all persons handling the new money with eternal damnation. But the great majority of the French people, who had suffered ecclesiastical oppression so long, regarded these utterances as the wriggling of a fish on the hook, and enjoyed the sport all the better.

The first result of this issue was apparently all that the most sanguine could desire: the treasury was at once greatly relieved; a portion of the public debt was paid; creditors were encouraged; credit revived; ordinary expenses were met, and, a considerable part of this paper money having thus been passed from the government into the hands of the people, trade increased and all difficulties seemed to vanish.

But soon there came another result: times grew less easy; by the end of September, within five months after the issue of the four hundred millions in assignats, the government had spent them and was again in distress.

The old remedy immediately and naturally recurred to the minds of men. Throughout the country began a cry for another issue of paper; thoughtful men then began to recall what their fathers had told them about the seductive path of paper-money issues in John Law's time, and to remember the prophecies that they themselves had heard in the debate on the first issue of assignats less than six months before.

At that time the opponents of paper had prophesied that, once on the downward path of inflation, the nation could not be restrained and that more issues would follow...

-----(see the url to continue your quest for info)------

In the aftermath of the aftermath, the Frenchmen learned a thing or two, and people would be wise to follow their hearts embracing physical gold as secure savings, wealth par excellence.

R.
Cavan Man
(09/05/2003; 05:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108182)
Vietnam and Waterloo
Social, political and economic JUSTICE are far cheaper!Hill Braces For Iraq Request
Lawmakers Want Details From Bush
By Mike Allen and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 5, 2003; Page A01


Lawmakers in both parties expressed surprise yesterday at the newly disclosed White House estimates for spending in postwar Iraq and said they will demand many details President Bush has withheld so far, including an exit strategy and a multiyear forecast, as the price of their support.

The White House has told congressional leaders to expect a budget request of $60 billion to $70 billion for occupying and rebuilding Iraq next year. White House officials said yesterday that the request is still in flux, and could be closer to $50 billion.

The plan could be submitted within the next two weeks, Capitol Hill sources said. The unexpectedly high amounts reflect a White House conclusion that Iraqi oil revenue and allies' contributions will be less than estimated before the war, the sources said.

LeSin
(09/05/2003; 06:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108183)
Update: Saudi Arabia & Russia Oil & Nat.Gas Co-op
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/29.html?mode=9&title_style=exclus&others=2&id_issue=5657020
Snip from the whole article:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia are major oil countries. Oil is among the primary sources of income for both countries. At the same time, oil is an important and efficient element in the world economy on the whole. This obliges us to cooperate and coordinate our activity on the world markets instead of competing," he said.
"This is essential for maintaining balance on the world oil market," he said.

Asked whether Russia could possibly join OPEC in the future and what role Russia could play in this organization, the prince said, "Russia is playing a positive role in supporting OPEC's initiatives aimed at setting oil prices and maintaining stability and balance on the world oil market. This is a very important role conforming to Russia's authority as a leading oil producer and exporter."

"As for Russia's accession to OPEC, this is exclusively Russia's decision, which can be made in light of Russia's interests," he said.

LeSin
(09/05/2003; 07:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108184)
Interesting Times - Alliance Shifts - Political Willing & Not Willing

Interesting is it not:

USA did not reveal facts to Saudis re 9/11, yet implicated and shamed the Saudis on the world stage. USA sent the Saudi Prince home shamed by the 9/11 report. Bush displayed NO diplomacy skills towards the Saudis with his arrogant stance against the Saudi request for information. Where were they to they go? Yes, Europe & Russia with very quiet talks with China.

Today Schroeder (Germany) & Chirac (France) dig their heels in re UN resolution for getting USA off the hook in Iraq. Basically - they are saying or not saying - it is your party Bush, Rummie and ilk

USA Democrats now on war path against Bush & Club. Where were they when they could have mattered? Most of those weasels voted to send the boys over there. Save a couple of prominent senior democrats that were howled down and mocked.

China refuses to devalue its' currency.

Saudi Arabia & Russia talking about predictable market control in oil and gas.

Time for ANOTHER strong surge of the Euro and major move up for Gold, while the US$ will slip as they print like mad.

When we smell smoke it is not just paper burning - it is the dollar printing press on warp print speed 24/7.

As our friends say at this table often say - "Gold, real Gold, the heavy carry kind of Gold, Cheap for the weight of it, Get you some quickly"
Cheers "S"
a nation of one
(09/05/2003; 07:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108185)
To TownCrier (09/05/03; 01:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 108181)

One particular paragraph in your post stands out:

"They had then learned how easy it is to issue it; how difficult it is to check its overissue; how seductively it leads to the absorption of the means of the workingmen and men of small fortunes; how heavily it falls on all those living on fixed incomes, salaries or wages; how securely it creates on the ruins of the prosperity of all men of meagre means a class of debauched speculators, the most injurious class that a nation can harbor,--more injurious, indeed, than professional criminals whom the law recognizes and can throttle; how it stimulates overproduction at first and leaves every industry flaccid afterward; how it breaks down thrift and develops political and social immorality."

* These things happen because we let them. It is our fault. If we want to prevent them, we have to take action. The consequences told of in the above quote do not occur on account of error, coincidence, or mistakes of understanding, but are the result of deliberate intentions on the part of those who create them.

---

When gold calms down to gain its strength, bears come out and raise their arms and growl. When it gets stronger, they go back in again. It is good to remember that to buy low and sell high, one must purchase when it doesn't seem worth buying, and sell when it looks like it will always go higher. Bears are lower animals. But bulls, at least, are somewhat domesticated.
Henri
(09/05/2003; 07:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108186)
Melting Pot 108151
Great reminder of how we got here. Call me simple minded but our first mistake was to offer gold in the first place and not water which is something we have in abundance and they do not. Simple logic. Water necessary for life, oil is not. Therefore water should command a higher price than oil or at least an equal price. perhaps with all that water the hanging gardens of babylon could reappear and all those nifty baths or even real gardens that grow...food! What a novel concept...grow your own food. Perhaps this will be the real end game to extract the gold back out of ME hands...when the oil runs out.
Jing Zu
(09/05/2003; 07:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108187)
Down.....
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20030905/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dcLooks like more bad news for the economy. Many things seem to be happening.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are seen dropping at Friday's open after a report showed that U.S. employers unexpectedly slashed jobs in August, eroding investor hopes that the struggling labor market was on the mend.

Jing Zu
(09/05/2003; 07:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108188)
Looks like GOLD will be going back up. Huh?
That is what is supposed to happen.

Call USAGold and buy now!


If you want to have more security in the FUTURE.

That would be the proper way.
Remarx
(09/05/2003; 07:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108189)
Re: Store of Money
@TownCrier: #108181. Thank you for that reference. This intermittent store-of-value discussion is complementing what I am reading elsewhere. (I think I may have triggered it initially with a quote from Keynes a couple of days ago.)
a nation of one
(09/05/2003; 07:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108190)
trends

Looks like commodities are positioning to go higher:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=i&w=15&t=c&a=12

The dollar falleth:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Stocks fly up on wings of lead:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200

Across 380 anyone?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d6&w=1&t=f&a=200

Socrates964
(09/05/2003; 07:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108191)
Jobs report
US authorities nothing if not predictable with their spinning.

Seemed rather clear that you couldn't square the circle and have stocks going up to discount an economic recovery and bond markets staying buoyant enough to soak up lots more paper (particularly now that currency markets have turned round).

Since the latter market is 10 times larger than the former, it was pretty obvious which side the government would come down on.

Hence the bucket of cold water on the equity market. And surprise, surprise, we have Ben Bernanke making noises about the possible need for another rate cut.

May be wishful thinking on my part, but I think that an orchestrated slide in stocks is beginning. Now shake, shake, shake the tree and lots of capital gains tax revenue will fall out between now and November.

And gold? Well, as the Moroccan proverb says, 'the clouds are not troubled by the barking of dogs'. It should do nicely, if only in terms of the greenback.
Gandalf the White
(09/05/2003; 09:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108192)
WOWSERS --- They may be PUMPING the 30-Yr. Bond TODAY, BUT ---
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[df][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GLOOK at the VOLUME of yesterday's DOWN DAY !
(That is shown by the TALL gray colored bar rising from the base of the chart !)
SOMEONE is cashing in and most likely exchanging the US$ for something else. Perhaps, it is YELLOW ?
BTW, I soon will have a GOLD story to tell !
Right now, it is only causing HEADACHES !
<;-)
Zhisheng
(09/05/2003; 09:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108193)
Tooth and Nail.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1As Gandalf posted yesterday, $375 seems to be the battle line. Today the battle is sharp. Could be a nice jump if it gives way.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/05/2003; 09:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108194)
The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Save your "strength" -- call us today!


Bulliion Special
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 10:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108195)
WGC bits and pieces -- Canada sells 1/3 of gold reserve
http://www.gold.org/...in India, where the monsoon season has roughly three weeks left to run of its four-month duration, rainfall to date has been 3% higher than the norm, and a number of areas that had previously been suffering from drought conditions are reporting fertile land. The jewellery industry remains upbeat about prospects for demand, provided prices remain stable.

In India, the Corporation Bank has launched a loan scheme for salaried women to buy gold. The Bank's chairman and Managing Director, Mr. K Cheriyan Varghese, has outlined the "Corp Mahila Gold" scheme, under which employed women can take loans of up to Rp 250,000 (approximately $5,400) at 12.5% interest, to buy gold from the bank itself or in fabricated form from jewellers. The prevailing yield on a three-month Treasury Bill in India is 4.65%.

The German Finance Minister Hans Eichel told the press in a televised interview yesterday that if under a new Central Bank Gold Agreement next year Germany had a larger share of potential sales than it had under this current agreement, any disposals would only be in "small steps''.

The Canadian Government sold 135,720 ounces of gold in August (4.2 tonnes), leaving holdings at approximately 200,000 ounces (6.2t).

------------

Thanks, Canada, I got mine! (Well, it had to come from SOMEwhere). Every little bit helps. Now, who will fill the shoes when it's gone and when rising prices reveal gold to be the paramount financial holding of our time?

R.
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 10:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108196)
HEADLINE: COMEX gold's pop on weak jobs ignites precious group
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030905/markets_precious_comex_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) -

...Gold has seemed to defy gravity and the most extreme long position ever held by noncommercials. New participants have come out of the woodwork and every dip has been bought since December gold hit a 7-month high at $380.40 Tuesday.

More and more investors now see gold as a portfolio diversifier amid lingering skepticism about the recovery, especially with the recent spike in bond yields, and potentially destabilizing violence in the Middle East.

Traders were expected to turn their attention to the Commitments of Traders report due from the CFTC after the close Friday, to see if fund buying would bring another record net speculative long, topping last week's 100,227 contracts.

------(from url)-------

Have you effectively diversified your portfolio, or, like these speculators, have you merely added paper on top of paper? Only gold -- when in the form of metal -- is "good as gold".

R.
Operative
(09/05/2003; 11:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108197)
North London Hit By Blackout
http://www.thisislondon.com/news/articles/6552548?source=Evening%20StandardOne week after the major London power outage it is hit yet again. On a Thrusday Evening. Do I see a pattern developing?
Zhisheng
(09/05/2003; 11:31:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108198)
Up into the Close!
Except for painting the tape a little. Auspicious ending for the week.

$378.80 December Futures--$377.30 cash.
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 11:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108199)
The more you know...
http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030904.htmFrom yesterday's press conference on the decision of the ECB's Governing Council on monetary policy (rates were left unchanged).

Q&A insight to the ECB position on the nature of public versus privately driven economic stimulus...

Question:
The Italian finance minister, Mr. Tremonti, presented a couple of months ago his plan for public expenditure in Brussels and he also explained it to the ECB. And today Handelsblatt, the German newspaper, wrote that Mr. Schr�der and Mr. Chirac are also going to present such a European plan for public expenditure in order to boost economic growth. I would like to ask you if these plans first of all are consistent with the philosophy of the Stability and Growth Pact and what is your opinion about them?

ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos:
Well, in principle, the strengthening of infrastructure in the Union is, I would say, a generally desirable objective. And if done appropriately and financed appropriately, it could help to boost economic growth. However, the final assessment depends very much on how it is financed and on this I do not have, at present, detailed information in order to be able to give you a precise judgement. But it is crucial, of course, that the implementation of such plans does not impinge on and does not adversely affect the public finances of countries that are already facing serious fiscal constraints. So the short answer is: it depends.

Question:
Just a follow-up to the question of my Italian colleague. So you mean that a plan for infrastructure can boost growth, but it is better if it is mostly privately financed?

Papademos:
I think you could infer this from what I said. I said, more precisely, that the outcome will depend on the modalities of the financing and whether it will impinge on public finances in countries that are at present facing fiscal problems. And if it does, it will obviously increase the pressures and the problems associated with the excessive deficits that have been recorded in these countries and will make it more difficult to implement budgetary policies and so to bring the fiscal position in these countries closer to balance over the medium term, which � as we stressed in the Statement and as I stressed separately earlier � we believe is going to contribute to rather than adversely affect economic growth.
-----

Dollar... euro... dollar... euro... (she loves me... she loves me not...)

The euro remains poised to give the dollar a serious run for the money in international appeal and usage. Diversify with gold and don't sweat the outcome of the race.

R.
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 12:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108200)
ECB President Duisenberg chimes in from Calgary
http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030905_1.htmexcerpts:

I would like to say a few general words about the roles and, may I add, limitations of monetary and fiscal policy in reviving global demand...

By being strictly geared towards maintaining price stability in a credible and lasting manner, monetary policy makes an important contribution to achieving a high level of output and employment, and to sustaining growth. Confidence in lasting price stability removes the inflation risk premium on interest rates, ensuring low real interest rates, which in turn foster investment, growth and employment.

Theoretical and empirical evidence clearly confirm that there is no long-term trade off between price stability and economic growth. Trying to use monetary policy to fine-tune economic activity or to gear it above a sustainable level will, in the long run, simply lead to rising inflation � not to faster economic growth.

Fiscal policy also plays a key role in contributing to macroeconomic stability. Stable, sustainable and efficient fiscal policies exert a favourable effect on long-term growth performance. They stimulate savings, capital formation, employment and innovation. And they facilitate the task of the monetary policy-maker in maintaining price stability. Sound public finances should rely on automatic stabilisers, rather than discretionary fine-tuning, to dampen the cyclical fluctuations of aggregate demand.

Structural reforms in the labour and goods markets are a key element of any long-term strategy to improve investment, growth and employment prospects.
First, more flexible markets increase the speed with which countries can adapt to economic shocks, thereby speeding up economic recovery.
Second, increased competition in labour and product markets is conducive to a high level of innovation and the rapid spread of technological progress. This in turn supports long-term growth, without contributing to inflationary tendencies.
Third, structural reform may facilitate the transmission of monetary policy. In more rigid economies, interest rate changes are transmitted to prices after a longer delay, and structural barriers can prevent the economic efficiency gains of the primary objective of monetary policy � price stability � from being fully realised.

...the US experience shows that no country can consider structural reforms as "completed". In its latest Article IV report on the United States, the IMF identified a number of areas where further efforts would be desirable, including the budgetary framework, the social security system and the energy sector. Also, the series of corporate failures in 2001-02 revealed weaknesses in corporate governance practices, including accounting and audit rules, which are currently being addressed by the US authorities.

...as I have sketched out in my remarks to you today, while the need for structural reforms is pressing in the euro area, in all other regions of the world � albeit to different extents and to address somewhat different problems � there are benefits of structural reform to be won.
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 12:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108201)
Dollar gets small prop by Japanese again?
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1062782961nN05164756&tit=Dollar%20rises%20vs%20yen,%20as%20traders%20cite%20Japan%20buying&type=internazionali&ling=ENNEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded above the 117.0 yen mark against the Japanese currency on Friday even as the greenback slumped against many other rivals, leading some New York-based traders to suspect the Bank of Japan or proxies had been actively engaged in yen-weakening intervention.

The dollar came under acute pressure against the euro and the Swiss franc, falling more than 1 percent against both as traders digested a weaker than expected U.S. August employment report...

Yet around midday in New York, the greenback went in the opposite direction against the yen ... for a gain of roughly 0.3 percent on the day.

At about the same time, the push of the euro higher against the yen ... was driven by Japanese accounts selling yen against the single European currency...

"People are just selling yen across the board because they believe that the BoJ will step in the dollar/yen (to buy dollars for yen) at 115.50 yen. We also heard that there were some big buyers of euros from Saudi Arabia," Walsh said.

------(see url)------

When oceans of currency are tossed about in a tempest of official management ever trending competitively toward weak and weaker, diversification through gold ownership is your safe haven.

R.
Gandalf the White
(09/05/2003; 12:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108202)
a BIG thanks to Sir Operative !
Operative (9/4/03; 17:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 108155)
Mail For Gandalf
I have ordered a box of doggy treats from Pets R Us for you to hand out judiciously as you deem fit. ----
===
Per your instructions, I tried a 'few' of these treats today !!
You can see that they are very effective.
What do you think that combining them with a little "Roo" meat will do ?
I shall be trying that NEXT WEEK !
390 390 390
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/05/2003; 12:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108203)
TGIF COMEX data ------ <;-)
Dec 03 Gold Contract (gc3z) Friday 9/5/03
Open $373.3 HIGH $380.9 low $371.9 Last $378.2 13:39
Settlement $378.7 Change +$4.7 Volume 32,084
Prior Close $374.0 Yesterday's Open Interest = 194,280
NICE job SPIKE and SPOT !
Note the $9.0 RANGE in today's COMEX action !
AND the open interest is getting close to the 200K level.
<;-)
TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 12:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108204)
Positions
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4738684∾tion=articleSAN FRANCISCO (AFX) --
...December gold reached an intraday high of $380.90 an ounce -- its highest intraday level since early February with traders betting on long-term, strong demand for the metal.

-----(from url)-----

Betting on the race is not the same as owning the horse. Participating in a futures contract is but a day at Pimlico, whereas buying gold is having Seabiscuit living immortal in your stables.

R.
CoBra(too)
(09/05/2003; 14:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108205)
5 Year Anniversary of USAGOLD - coming up soon ...
and so is the POG 400 to tackle 500 and more.

At this juncture I would like to personally congratulate our host MK and his staff - the occasional, never the less brilliant articles of Marke Talk, alias George don't go unnoticed either. Also the perseverance and great input of our young, though wise beyond his years, TC, also known as Randy is to be lauded.

I just want to state that this site, including all past and present posters has immensely aided my confidence in gold investments. More so, it also opened new perspectives on the ever more globalized, though shrinking world of people still thinking reality and not accepting main stream and political correct (dis-)information.

I do consider myself lucky to have stumbled across this site early in my also early internet experiences.

Thanks again for the efforts of creating venue and Kudos to all participants - your eternal gold bug - cb2

PS: Just maybe we bugs could hold a celebration at one time and take over the Brown Palace to meet up in person for a day or two ...?
Cavan Man
(09/05/2003; 14:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108206)
Inflation Update
Duisenberg is right!Wife just back from grocery store. RAMEN (a college staple) is now 2 for .70 cents; down from 10 for a buck :>(. May we all eat french pastry, drink german beer and listen to Viennese waltzes at the "brown palace".Amen (bro's)
CoBra(too)
(09/05/2003; 15:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108207)
@CM - Duisenberg seems last years model -
We're cavin' out new shelters - let's call 'em Trichet's Trenches.

These guys are big enough to blast any treaty to smithereens - as soon as themselves. Good bye � conversion treatise and hello JMK socialism.

What's left is cravin' for gold before the cave'(i)n of da dollah system - Man of the Cavan - cb2
DryWasher
(09/05/2003; 17:25:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108208)
Future of Money Summit October 27-29 in Denver.
http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/index.phpTake a look at this guys! The above link is to a site that I just stumbled on and I just had to share it with you all. Following are a few excerpts taken from it:

"Your money is in jeopardy. The money world itself is in crisis, and the forces at play are not always evident. The money systems interwoven throughout our societies will undergo significant transformation as we better understand the global information age. Our confidence in money ebbs and flows with the strength of the market and forces are now pushing for global currency. Even the physical form of money continues to change. Where's it headed?"

"The mission of the Summit is to explore the evolving forms of money and the complex and broad-ranging effect it will have on technology, business, society, and public policy."

"On October 29, 2003 plans for the unveiling of the Terra, the world's first global trade reference currency, will be announced at the Future of Money Summit in Denver, Colorado."

DryWasher: Judging by the list of speakers and advisors some very important people are getting worried. GOLD, get you lots.
Federal_Reserves
(09/05/2003; 17:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108209)
Nasdaq Dog of the Day - VATA
Nasdaq Dog of the Day - VATAHow dare these tech idiots call us gold investors fanatics and idiots!

A minor drop of around 24%, a company of 119 employees, public? Selling "business logic"??, JAVA software at a loss?
What the hell is that? Come on! Who would invest in a clap trap like this? Booking a loss of over a buck a share to
boot?

Hell a single McDonald's store has that many employees, but sure enough the NASDAQ has this trash listed.
NASDAQ is a vast wasteland of money losing, dot.bomb flyotech stocks like this all under$5, mixed in with
the overvalued supertechs like CSCO, INTC, DELL, ORCL....the speculation in the trash is obsence only made legit by the pro-forma profits
of a few super overvalued supertechs. When they go public big $ for insiders, when the bottoms drop out the public takes the beating.

Its a giant scam game.

Who is buying this trash? In my day, it was hard for a piece of trash like this to get on the pink sheets much
less a major exchange, and nobody but idiot would have paid more than 10-15x earnings for a stock!

If the correction on the NASDAQ continues, trash like this is going to get carried out fast!


Cometose
(09/05/2003; 17:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108210)
@Federal Reserves
Go ahead , quit holding back , but this time , I want to know how you really feel....about Nasdaq and thanks for sharing the latest statistic....of nonsense
Paper Avalanche
(09/05/2003; 19:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108211)
The last shoe is about to drop....
I cannot believe that this has not been posted yet (I get to bring the good news to the mighty oaken table!). IMNSHO, one of the final acts in this monetary play will be when the US and Great Britain recognize that they are no longer able to resist the market forces being perpetuated by the other 5.6 billion people in the world and, upon such recognition, put in place financial vehicles by which their investors and financial institutions are able to readily divert paper investments to a traded security that will also rise with the price of gold. Is it a scam? Of course. All paper gold contracts are fraudulent by their very nature. That is not the importance of this event. The importance, rather, is the inidication that US/GB PTB have, in principal, conceded the gold fight and recognize that it is not a battle that is able to be won. Now it is time to lower the life boats. The ETF is a financial life boat that will quickly be hoisted aside the sinking dollar ship in the coming weeks as the end of the twenty plus year manipulation draws to a close before our very eyes. Ladies and genetlemen, I give you the story that I have been waiting to read for quite some time now:

WGC gold fund clears legal hurdle

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2003/09/05 Fri 13:00 EDT | � Mineweb 1997-2003


NEW YORK -- Senior gold industry sources tell Mineweb that the Bank of New York has agreed to waive its claim against the World Gold Council's stalled exchange traded gold fund, Equity Gold. The settlement clears the way for the imminent launch of Equity Gold which is backed to absorb tonnes of gold as the WGC works to improve demand for the metal.
BONY's claim stems from an assertion that it has sole intellectual property rights to a particular form of ETF that encompasses the WGC fund's proposed basket structure.

It is understood that the WGC will grant BONY trusteeship of Equity Gold as the quid pro quo. That displaces HSBC, but the bank will retain its role as custodian and advisor. Mineweb has also been told that there are no custodial problems overhanging the fund's bullion foundation.

An agreement is currently in the process of being drafted and should allow Equity Gold's registration statement to finally clear the SEC. The delays have been expensive in view of gold's sustained strength after evaporating the Iraq war premium.

The fund is a radical departure for the WGC which has historically focused most of its demand management on jewellery offtake; not always with good results for the money spent if the Glow With Gold campaign is a bellwether.

The industry was also rocked by an open challenge to the WGC when some producers called in McKinsey & Co. to provide an alternative demand strategy. That appeared in October 2001 as the Gold Marketing Initiative and suggested that a co-ordinated effort could add 340-500 tonnes per annum in gold jewellery demand by 2006, drive prices up between $30-40/oz and generating a net present value of $9-12 billion for producers.

That GMI received a lukewarm response and was eventually folded into WGC arrangements.

Pent up demand

WGC sponsors are confident Equity Gold will unlock pent up institutional demand for bullion.

Former Calpers boss, James Burton, was hired expressly to talk gold into the portfolios of institutions that have traditionally shunned the metal or have little knowledge of it. Burton's record at Calpers shows that he never directed any serious investment into gold, but it is thought he will preach a useful conversion message to the general industry.

An industry executive says American institutions have been driven off gold investments for several reasons that Equity Gold will address.

However, institutions have long been able to invest in gold proxies like the Central Fund (CEF) which is listed on the American Stock Exchange and which has maintained horse-hair shirt like discipline to avoid diluting its net asset value. If there is pent up demand, it is going to be unlocked by glad handing.

Clearly, there is huge demand for products that eliminate the hassle of retail investors dealing in physical gold and facing higher costs. It is precisely for this reason that CEF often trades at a premium to net asset value when you take into account its lower transaction and holding costs relative to coins and bars.

Equity Gold's challenge will be to manage excessive money flows � heavy inflows at the tops and crushing outflows in the troughs. Not only could it destablize the market, but it would drive up transaction costs that would dilute the value of Equity Gold paper since the fund must sell gold to pay its way.

It is more apparent that the original idea of Equity Gold being a single global security has been shelved in favour of more nationally oriented vehicles that are less likely to run into regulatory hurdles in the era of government paranoia.

--------

IMNSHO, you have but a few precious weeks remaining to purchase gold from our fine host below $500/ounce.

Take care.

PAPER AVALANCHE!
PCV1
(09/05/2003; 19:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108212)
ECB President Duisenberg chimes in from Calgary
Another report from today's proceedings to follow up TownCrier's post of earlier in the day.

Listening to the the local news on CBC here in Calgary, we heard 30 seconds of Paul Volcker, no less. His message was grave concern at the financial policies of the encumbent US administration indicating that the system has not been in such a state for many years (read pre-Volcker).

Strong words, hopefully they will be reported in full!
Paper Avalanche
(09/05/2003; 19:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108213)
This is the kind of guy that believes the World Bank POG prediction
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_816233.html?menu=news.latestheadlinesSomething to liven up the evening.

PA
PCV1
(09/05/2003; 20:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108214)
Corporate scandals caused by entrenched problems: ex-Fed head Volcker
http://www.canada.com/search/story.aspx?id=94402bfa-9c6b-4bfb-814c-3dab9bd84139This is what I was looking for! Volcker :

"frankly rather depressed and certainly concerned about the state of corporate governance in the United States,"

Also :

Duisenberg also expressed concern over rapidly deepening federal deficits in the United States - currently estimated at $480 billion US next year - and several other of the world's largest economies.

"I must say that the developments in the U.S., where all sense of fiscal discipline seems to have disappeared, and the developments in particular in the major European countries are, of course, of grave concern to the monetary authorities."

seeker
(09/05/2003; 20:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108215)
Paper Av.
You seem so excited about this new development. Can you shed some more light on exactly how this will cause more demand for physical?
Whenever I here of a bank (bank of NY), and the SEC agreeing on something, I am very wary on their intentions. Is this a way for more people to aquire more gold, or is this another ploy to divert money from gold into paper gold?
I have heard of 'gold exchanges' opening up in various places in a great hurry around the world, in my view to divert pressure from gold, and now this.
I am very suspicious.
DryWasher
(09/05/2003; 20:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108216)
More from the summit in Denver October 27-29, 2003.
http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/stages-of-globalism.phpRef. (usagold.com msg#: 108208)

The following excerpts are from one of the papers to be presented at the summit and it can be found at the above link.

The following are 4 of the 12 Stages of Globalism proposed by the paper:

3.) 2005�2015 - Global Currency � The first global money will not be in the form of cash that you can stick in your pocket. Rather, the first global currency will be established as a digital reference point, a global standard, to which all other currencies will convert to and from. Acceptance of the new global currency will develop as large financial houses and credit card companies begin to understand the efficiencies they can derive from it.

4.) 2005�2015 - Global Intellectual Property System � Protecting intellectual property rights has gotten very messy. With many competing governmental rules undermining individual and corporate rights to patents, trademarks, and copyright protection, a coalition of worldwide intellectual property agencies will begin to establish the first global intellectual property system.

5.) 2010-2020 - Whole Earth Ownership Project � Most wars begin as land disputes. Creating a global authority to establish and record property ownership will go a long ways towards resolving disputes between claims of ownership. The Whole Earth Ownership Project will be centered around a comprehensive database of land ownership records linked directly to countries around the world.

6.) 2015�2025 - Global Tax Code � Wealthy people are demonstrating a growing desire to resist the confines of country boundaries. Having multiple residences around the world is already common. With national tax codes creating complex impediments to the free flow of commerce, a new simplified global standard tax code will emerge to better manage the difficulties of monitoring a fluid population engaged in borderless economies.

DryWasher: Beam me, and my Gold, up Scotty.
Great Albino Bat
(09/05/2003; 20:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108217)
Seeker: quite right to be "very suspicious"!

This new "Equity Fund" launched by WGC, which will be Exchange traded in the US, is not favorable to gold.

Think about it: the Equity Fund will absorb enormous amounts of dollars from people who WANT TO MAKE DOLLARS, not who want to own gold. Some of those putting their money into the fund will think that they are gold owners, but they will be sadly mistaken. They will not have a good ride with Equity Fund, they will exit sick and tired of gold and never want to hear another word about "gold".

When Equity Fund, at their sole discretion, thinks (or SAY they think) that gold is going down, they will have immense funds with which to short gold, all "in the best interests of the owners of Equity shares". Yeah, sure!

The price of gold will be controlled - with the money of those who hope to make dollars by owning shares in the Fund!

They will do the exact opposite of what the Mutual Funds do with stocks: these pump up the values no matter what junk is in their portfolios. With gold, count on it, they will act together with TPTB to slam gold at every opportunity, all in the name of the shareholders.

Now, if I am mistaken - and perhaps I am - will someone please explain why I am mistaken? Maybe the Fund expressly is forbidden to short gold? Is it forbidden to take action which it might construe as protecting the shareholders from "imminent and excessive downturns in gold"? Might not this very "protective action" pre-empting a "fall" in the price of gold, actually provoke the fall?

Be very suspicious. This Equity Fund is built for suckers.

Gold is not for fools and weaklings. They are soon parted from their gold with any cock-and-bull story. The WGC is not gold's friend. It is Rothschild's friend and creation.

However much damage Equity Fund may do to gold's price and reputation, facts are facts and nothing can be done to prevent the world financial explosion and the return to PHYSICAL gold as a refuge for savings. All that the enemies of gold for the people can do, is to delay the event a short time.

If anyone can show me that my suspicions are utterly without any basis, I will take back all I have written.

The GAB


TownCrier
(09/05/2003; 20:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108218)
Good observations, Batman.
You said, "...they will have immense funds with which to short gold, all "in the best interests of the owners of Equity shares". The price of gold will be controlled - with the money of those who hope to make dollars by owning shares in the Fund! They will do the exact opposite of what the Mutual Funds do with stocks: these pump up the values no matter what junk is in their portfolios. With gold, count on it, they will act together with TPTB to slam gold at every opportunity, all in the name of the shareholders."

We certainly get a strong hint of that element in this following paragraph from the article:

--------Equity Gold's challenge will be to manage excessive money flows � heavy inflows at the tops and crushing outflows in the troughs. Not only could it destablize the market, but it would drive up transaction costs that would dilute the value of Equity Gold paper since the fund must sell gold to pay its way.---------

Now, getting back to your words, "Gold is not for fools and weaklings. They are soon parted from their gold with any cock-and-bull story."

Amen.

R.
seeker
(09/05/2003; 21:18:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108219)
Great Albino Bat
Well spoken, well said,
however, do you believe that Rothschild is an enemy to gold?
I think that if paper wins he wins bigger, if gold wins he wins big.
What think ye sir?
21mabry
(09/05/2003; 21:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108220)
Gold Equities
Those who hold gold and silver equities have seen some very nice gains over the past month.If one has a position in physicals and paper gold is it time to sell the paper and invest in the physical even more so?Have these metal stocks reached a temporary high?Are they do for a pullback?The great trader Jesse Livermore said do not close out a position unless you see a better place to put your money.The only place I see better is physical metal.It is my belief as has been said by so many on this board establish your physical position first.That has been done.The leverage and movment of the gold equities are impresive though.In all honesty I would like to ride this paper gold bull higher and then put even more in the physical metal.The equties market and gold can not move higher together is a common belief,there relationship is an inverse one or it has been in the past.The last several years we have seen such strange happenings in financial markets why cant they move higher together.With the masses buying stocks and those in the know buying gold.This economy is flooded with easy money there is enough to pump both higher.Do we think more highly of gold and silver stocks on this board or are they as bad as other equties.21
Liberty Head
(09/05/2003; 21:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108221)
Physical and Miners

When POG went to $390/OZ earlier this year, it left the unhedged miners funds, like Toqueville, behind.
This time the miners are going along for the ride.
While the POG will bounce around a bit, I don't think we will see anymore $50/OZ declines until after the roof blows off the POG.
Hang on tight, the gold bull in this rodeo is likely to give us the ride of a lifetime.
If you do get thrown off, there sure are plenty of clowns around to distract the bull. :-)

Cheers

mikal
(09/05/2003; 22:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108222)
@Paper Avalanche, Seeker
@PA- Re: Msg # 108211 Thanks for the link. Great comments. It's not easy staying bullish, but you're on top of things and holding tight in the sea of distractions, deceptions and apathy. May you forever stay anchored, focused and jubilant!
@Seeker- Re: Msg # 108219- Good post! Keep on keeping on!
Goldendome
(09/05/2003; 22:10:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108223)
If only you could be --KING OF THE WORLD !!

Good evening to all. Lately, I've taken to being a quiet observing, reading, lurker; not knowing what to say. I, as many of you, have been watching-- astonished at the markets behaviors, investors behaviors, nations behaviors; the goings on with interest rates, mortgage rates, stock price levels, physical gold's brutal battles. I have been watching at times wide eyed-babbling-talking to myself, at the Blow-up in the world of markets, money, and nations that seems to be progressing in slow-time around us.

A couple of days ago Sir MK suggested there might be a contest time approaching. I don't mean to be presumptuous, but were I to choose the question- I think that I would like to know this:

"What would YOU do to change the Worlds' economic and political course. To get back to long run financial stability and sustainability. How would you implement your programs, and finally, how would you deal with the problems (winners and loosers) that your programs would create?

I really would like to know! I'd like some ideas. Because right now, the leaders appear to be hoping to accomplish what John Mauldin has referred to as "Muddle through economics." And it ain't workin' to well. Frankly, I'd like to find out if we have some Presidential timber in this forum. Maybe to lead a new "Solid Dollar Party".

Thanks for reading: Gdome
Paper Avalanche
(09/05/2003; 22:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108224)
@Great Albino Bat (09/05/03; 20:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 108217)
Greetings!

I have a few beers in me so please bear with me if something should appear disjointed. While your point is certainly a very good one, I believe and humbly submit that the one flaw that you make is to assume that the US dollar is the perpetual monetary standard going forward. If it is not, as I believe, then the scenarios that you present whereby gold is once again controlled vis-a-vis a dollar denominated paper market become moot as a result of the rest of the world electing an alternative to the reserve currency of the past sixty years.

Take care.

PA
Paper Avalanche
(09/05/2003; 22:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108225)
@mikal
Thank you kind sir. It is a privilege to be among those that call this forum home. If that which Another/FOA/TG have anticipated should come to pass I believe that this forum will be remembered by future monetary historians the way the Common Sense pamphlets were attributed to the American revolution.

Have a terrific weekend!

PA
21mabry
(09/05/2003; 23:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108226)
Tim Woods
I have seen Mr. Woods articles alot latley.He rights for his own website and others.I have also heard him on Jim Puplavas show.I assumed he thought gold was in a bull market.He seems to have written a few columns latley where he seems not so bullish. Gdome if I was king of the world I would give you the tigers and take the mariners.Gdnite to all 21
slingshot
(09/05/2003; 23:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108227)
Gandalf the White
HEY SPOT! You have done a great job. Now to give you some incentive.

I know you like those Doggy Treats and the Roo meat from down under, but lets throw those tastebuds into overdrive.

How about a 16 0z Porterhouse Steak. One inch thick!

Think you can pop Gold over $400 next week?

No Kidding. Gandalf and I will work out the details.

So Spot, $390 or $400. Doggy treats and Roo meat or Steak. Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Slingshot----------------------<>
Waverider
(09/05/2003; 23:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108228)
Slingshot....okay.......
If Spot 'n Spike get porterhouse and roo meat...then I think the rest of us should indulge in Italian Goldschlager - Italian cinnamon schnapps liqueur with Gold flakes (really)...it's far too SMOOTH to not share with fellow Goldmeisters! CB2....is that a PARTY suggestion I hear to celebrate a 5 year Anniversary and POG $400.00?
slingshot
(09/05/2003; 23:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108229)
Lady Waverider
Hear! Hear! Goldschlager! Have not tasted that wonderful mixture of fermented Spirits in years. Yes, It does have GOLD FLAKES IN IT. Goldschlager it is when Gold goes over $400.
Slingshot-------------------<>
slingshot
(09/06/2003; 00:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108230)
(No Subject)
Good for a Fifth Year Anniversity Too.

Slingshot--------------<>
spotlight
(09/06/2003; 00:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108231)
Gold fund
Great Albino Bat
My understanding is that the fund will buy gold with the client's funds and issue him a share in the fund equal to his purchase less a commission which is much less the is now available. I can't see a lot of funds after expenses to do much speculative shorting of gold. If anything it may be much more profitable to go long, thereby increasing the price of gold much as the cartell has done to decrease it.
If you believe, as I do, that there is a shortage of gold which is being filed by the central banks, then, with the potential for world currencies to flow into these funds due to the ease of the investment in gold, you should also look for the possibility of one of these funds to run into a problem where a customer's order cannot be filled, and there becomes a back up problem that could break the back of any cartel and send the price of gold into uncharted territory. This I base on the assumtion that the mechanics of buying shares in the fund would require an instant purchase of gold,in order to ascertain the share price. There are potential buyers of gold out there with trillions of dollars worth of purchasing power. The US has less than $100 billion in gold in the treasury. The amount of money flowing to gold at present is a tiny sum, compared to what it could be once the ball really gets rolling.
ge
(09/06/2003; 03:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108232)
@ spotlight (9/6/03; 00:33:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 108231)
http://www.usagold.com/hall/hallfame5.html#anchor295925The above link of Aristotle is very interesting: Now, the possibilities are endless. I haven't thought of these until I read the above article. I offer the following:
---------------

Let the gold price be 380. Comex contract size is 100oz. Notional value of one contract is $38,000. Margin requirement is $2025. The intention is to take 5 positions at Comex, 2 long, 3 short. If 2 long/2 short pair qualifies for a spread, the margin would be much lower. Let us assume that total margin is 5*2,025=10,125. For every $86,125 (=38000+38000+10125), we 2 buy contracts and sell 3 contracts. With the remaining 76,000 buy 200 oz physical gold for your personal account.

Make the legal arrangements such that customer money and 2 long contracts are linked. Comex fails then customer money fails.

There is some sort of fractional reserve banking here. However, reserve ratio is high (76000/86125= %88). Moreover, the customers are unlikely to demand physical. If they were, they would not be buying the fund in the first place.

Our net Comex short position is 100z while we hold 200oz physical. No way to corner us.

We have a spread position at the Comex. How we manage it may affect the Comex price (Short at near months & long at far months may make it fall).
Sundeck
(09/06/2003; 04:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108233)
Spot's food intake
Hey you guys...stop fooling with Spot's diet!

16 oz porterhouse indeed! You'll make him so fat and lazy he'll sleep for a week. Next thing you'll be wanting to fill him full of gold flakes. You know how heavy that stuff is?

Leave Spot's food to Gandalf...he is doing just fine, thank you very much.

Respectfully

;-)

Sundeck

misetich
(09/06/2003; 06:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108234)
European bemoans soaring U.S. deficits
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_session_id_=93652fbee0eea59a&pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1062799810790&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851Snip:
Duisenberg singled out expanding federal deficits in the United States � currently estimated at $480 billion (U.S.) next year.

"I must say that the developments in the U.S., where all sense of fiscal discipline seems to have disappeared, and the developments in particular in the major European countries are, of course, of grave concern to the monetary authorities," Duisenberg said.
...............
"When public debt is allowed to mount unabated, the trust of investors and citizens can vanish very quickly � not only the trust in their governments, but their trust in each other," Canada's top banker told the business crowd.
...............
On another issue, Paul Volcker, .............told the Calgary conference that he is "frankly rather depressed and certainly concerned about the state of corporate governance in the United States," and about the standard of behaviour in the world's financial markets.

Volcker said prosecutions in corporate scandals such as Enron and WorldCom will not resolve systemic problems in a business world based on greed.

"The list is long enough that the theory that this is a case of a few rotten apples in the barrel, I do not think can be sustained," he said.

"Obviously there are particularly rotten and corrupt apples which are not characteristic of American or international business generally, but I think we have to conclude that the problems are pervasive enough that there are some more general causes and problems."
************
Misetich

The perfect financial storm
The unsustainability of the US twin deficit and the ongoing corruption which Volcker flatly thinks cannot be sustained...AND the unsustainable pace of Asia purchases of US $, unfunded pension plans, mutual funds dependent on a rising stock market, housing bubble market dependent on low interest rates for years to come
Add a little mix of geopolitical issues such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, North Korea, Taiwan

Scary stuff

How can investors protect their portfolio?

hint...hint

BUY PHYSICAL GOLD, BUY PHYSICAL GOLD

All On Board The Gold Bull Express


turkey hunter
(09/06/2003; 07:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108235)
Ron Paul's latest
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul124.htmlsnip......

In recent years, there has been a coordinated effort by the world central bankers to keep the gold price in check by dumping part of their large horde of gold into the market. This has worked to a degree, but just as it could not be sustained in the 1960s, until Nixon declared the Bretton Woods agreement dead in 1971, this effort will fail as well.

The market price of gold is important because it reflects the ultimate confidence in the dollar. An artificially low price for gold contributes to false confidence and when this is lost, more chaos ensues as the market adjusts for the delay.....

snip..... Alan Greenspan, although once a strong advocate for the gold standard, now believes he knows what the outcome of this battle will be. Is it just wishful thinking on his part? In an answer to a question I asked before the Financial Services Committee in February 2003, Chairman Greenspan made an effort to convince me that paper money now works as well as gold: "I have been quite surprised, and I must say pleased, by the fact that central banks have been able to effectively simulate many of the characteristics of the gold standard by constraining the degree of finance in a manner which effectively brought down the general price levels."

misetich
(09/06/2003; 07:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108236)
US Budget: Hill Set to Receive $80 Billion Iraq Spending Bill> Sep 5 / 12:51 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1062780660000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Lawmakers returned to Washington this week
from their August recess to learn the White House is preparing to seek
up to $80 billion for military and reconstruction programs for Iraq in
the 2004 fiscal year.

The formal White House request is expected as early as next week.
...............
Despite congressional grumbling, the request is almost certain to
be approved by lawmakers
***********
Misetich

Incredible - how the Iraq issue remains unchallenged by the vast majority of Americans - how so many can entrust their future and their children's in the hands of so few - blindly having faith that these few are acting in Americas best interest

Are they really? Who is benefitting from this Iraq invasion?

How can so many be so brainwashed - and yet have their pockets picked on a daily basis?

Somehow the exhilirating feeling of the 1994-2000 of the US economic growth, stockmarket bubble is very much entrenched in the minds of US investors and citizens and blindfolded they're waiting for the glorious leaders, be it Greenspan, Bush, etc to lead them back to the recent past

They're in for a Rude Awakening

As gold investors it is our duty to prepare and make room for the many passengers that will be coming onboard the Gold Bull Express as each and every passing day the passengers on the US, Japan Financial Titanic discover the ill effects of years of fiscal mismangement and corruption

All On Board The Gold Bull Express






Mr Gresham
(09/06/2003; 08:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108237)
Persisting Juvenility
So many good posts lately -- GAB, Mr Marley, Socrates -- quick responses cannot do them justice. But, I've had my coffee (jazzed fingers sliding badly on the mousepad) so here goes a thought.

Misetich, below: "How can so many be so brainwashed - and yet have their pockets picked on a daily basis?"

My thought: I'm on a "stages of life" realization course lately, with recent events involving care of my father.

Most of us are programmed throughout life with parent/child issues. We do not start to climb out of our juvenile state of mind until we become parents ourselves. And at that, it is a slow, laborious climb. In fact, as we became young parents, part of us sought out a compensating elder authority with new inquisitiveness.

We take further steps toward growing up with the passing or disability of parents -- those who we once looked up to as wiser, stronger, powerful -- as we become the "next in line" older generation.

At that time in life, we are less disposed to take crap from those who impose their ideas, legislation, or costs upon us in the guise of a parental authority. We've paid some dues, and we recognize a game when it's being played. We've got no extra time to wait out another round of societal foolishness -- time to go our own way in life.

However, we now see the majority younger population still falling for those games. Even authority-rejecting young anarchists (possibly reacting in youthful clarity to a sudden realization of this society-wide vulnerability -- because SEEING something, and having the SEASONING to do it differently are two different items) are still caught up in the game. It is part of life, and it goes back to the times of ancient monarchs and priesthoods. It is not easily overthrown, possibly not at all.

Paternalistic government takes advantage of those authority-seeking impulses in all of us, What a great game for those who seek to make their living more easily on the backs of others!

Why, if I didn't have a CONSCIENCE, I might try it for myself. Whew!

I'll hit POST now before my sweating fingers wipe out these thoughts.

GOLD -- the GROWN-UP metal. For grown-ups only.
Mr Gresham
(09/06/2003; 08:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108238)
War
And, could WAR be the worst example of parental abuse possible?

Harnessing the energies, strength, and idealism of young men -- for your own profit.

I'm trying to be a good parent -- and a good son. I think it is because (like Hitler's statement about the BIG LIES being easily believed because people are TOO DECENT to imagine themselves telling such a whopper) most good parents could not imagine doing such an abusive thing to their own children, that they believe -- by extension -- that Government could not be doing such an evil thing.

They NEED government to be a caring, protective, beneficial "FATHER" and so they invest it with these qualities -- their OWN qualities, really -- which IT DOES NOT HAVE! Because they are not quite ready to accept the supremacy and sufficiency of the type of difficult job they are already doing as parents. Somebody promises a slicker, "foolproof" "system" (such as Social Security), and they fall for it.

It always looks so tidy at the beginning, War. "Mr. Lincoln asks for 90-day volunteers."

Yes, war. Satan smiles. Evil is done. Quite a gap here, and not just the $80 billion one.
Cavan Man
(09/06/2003; 08:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108239)
@misetich
RE: Weapons of Mass DisappearingThe "great unwashed" will be "washing up" upon your shores soon.
Mr Gresham
(09/06/2003; 08:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108240)
Emasculation
I won't even start on the subject -- of how in the present time, technology, big financial institutions, government institutions, and our own educations have conspired to remove most of what we biologically inherited about being MEN.

Besides the "stages of life" age approach I described below, we have to get past all these obstacles and distractions in order to have a healthy, balanced, fulfilling channel for our energies as men and stop pretending we are not who we are. What can we do without it?

I really think this is one of the eternal appeals of the "Founding Fathers". They really did stand up and act like Men. (It was the courage part -- not just the war part -- that really marked that.)

They acted like good Fathers -- to a nation. Imagine doing that today!

It's pretty obvious the White House has not held one of those for many a decade. I could mention a couple close calls, but even if it was all PR, or even if George Washington was really a jerk, so what? We ALL hold that model in our minds to the extent of our OWN experiences, and we can hold it as we go about our business, and not fall in with any scheme which further emasculates us.
Belgian
(09/06/2003; 09:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108241)
Thanks, for the great postings of the past week...
Would like to add a few things on Melting Pot (#108151) and Jacob Marley's (#108123) brillant posts :
France is firmly decided to bill a huge price (to the USUK) for probable, substantial aid in Iraq (and M.E. as a whole) through U.N. And France is not alone, but takes the lead !

I've been interpreting the general position(s) as follows :
We (France-Germany-Belux-Russia-China-India) will wellcome all help and co-operation, in ME-affairs, from the USUK... and NOT the other way around, as it is (hesitantly) proposed by the US, at present !? This may seem as a very conceited positioning, against the US powerhouse. But is that so ?
That's what we will soon find out when the US election year is fastly approaching and the geo-political embroglio evolves.

ME (Middle East)=(equals) the globe's oil-reserves =(equals) the US$-reserve in competition with Gold and euro : That's why this ongoing ME-saga is so decisevely important in our considerations (direct and indirect) about Gold. Sorry for repeating this so many times.

The total destruction of Iraq (2 wars + 12 yrs of embargo) have put an enormous "convenient" mortgage on Iraq's, world's, second biggest oil reserves (114 Billion barrils) . The entire wealth of 26 million Iraqis has been mortgaged by external powers ! France's (& Co) first demand is that the entire Iraqi oil wealth goes *entirely* back into full Iraqi ownership (de facto and de jure). They want to negociate only with the *natural* owners of the ME oil instead of having to deal with the dollar printers who intend to *control* those same oil-reserves ! This (and not Saddam & Co) is what causes the real rift between the Anglo-American dollar block and the EU euro block !

We all agree on the subjects of democracy, terror and dictatorship...but we have a *fundamental* difference in opinion on the world's reserve currency concept and its management.

It is up to Iraq and the whole M.E. oil reserves to decide for what value ( "currency" and price) they want to sell their black gold ! Note, the growing affinity between ME-oil and Russian oil (OPEC re-inforcement)!!! The world's remaining oil-reserves are looking for the most appropiate valuation, into the nearby future. That's what all this ME-affair (Israel included-!!!) is all about. If this shouldn't be the case, nobody would care about the ME and there wouldn't be a drama as it has escalated during the past 3 decades.

The trans-Atlantic rift widened decisevely with the recent Iraqi invasion/occupation. That is NOT a co-incidence and France wasn't-isn't playing games just for the fun of it or out of frustrated ambitions of not being within the club of world powers. No, there is much more behind all this, imveryho, of course !

France, is the willing front, that must take all the (anti-dollar)blaim, whilst silently being supported (to different degrees) by other powers, converging to the plural euro concepts.

Let me remind you that New York protester's pamflet that summurized the hart of the matter in one single phrase : " How did "our" (USUK) oil get under "your" (ME) sand ? " !!!

Wouldn't it have been much simplier, for all of us, that the USUK and EU would have agreed on full co-operation in Iraq and simply shared the oil-loot, control the oil-reserves all together and get on with out global economy !? No,...because there is that nasty euro ! And the consequences of the Iraqi invasion was that single step too far, for the euro and its supporters.

The reason why I do emphasize again on this euro-thing is the convincing "firmness" of the French (and German) stance (leadership) towards that old Trans Atlantic alliance.
Nobody in the EU even subtly suggests that the whole ME-affair is euro-dollar-oil connected !!! This is purely out of precaution as the right attitude for an adolescent and maturing, new currency-concept. It remains a mystery "WHY", A/FOA, as an American, has been introducing this deep cross current event, exclusively via CPM, to the www !?

Old fox, Rummy, was right...that "old" europ (France-Germany) is causing some new pain in the globe's humhum.

For those who understand french, I do recommand daily lecture of "Le Figaro" as to convince themselves about France's visions (and actions) on the geo-political fronts.

Recent opinion polls in Germany show an increasing dis-connection with the past evidency of Anglo-American world leadership ! The average for the EU now stands at 50%.

The Iraqi adventure could become disastrous for the dollar-coalition. As it stands now, the euro couldn't have asked for anything better than the rapidly growing dollar-antipathy.

One last reflexion on Hans Eichel (German finance minister) and German Goldreserves : One might consider selling of some goldreserves when fully convinced that the remaining amount of those goldreserves will surely be priced to their *REAL* value at the appropiate time. The sold minima of goldreserves will then have been used for what they were ment for...a valuable last minute "RESERVE" to overcome very difficult transition period ! One of the main definitions and purposes of a "reserve". In other words...the more EU gold is nakedly (physically) sold from the 12,000 tonnes plus...the more valuable the remaining reserves must...WILL...need to be priced as to balance the total !!!
We must *DE-DRAMATIZE* the past, present and future EU (!!!) CB goldsales !!! Stronger even...LESS GOLD IN THE VAULTS MEANS MUCH HIGHER VALUE !!! Not a contradictio in terminis or otherwise, tell me (us) who is buying the CB Gold ! NOT ONE SINGLE ANSWER HAS BEEN SUGGESTED UP UNTIL NOW! And remain confident that this question will "never" be answered ! Gold, remains an important reserve of the CBs !!!

PUBLIC Oil Wars and SECRETIVE Gold Wars are taking place !
Both wars happen because of the confetti-bergs !
MK
(09/06/2003; 10:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108242)
CB2.....
Thanks to CB2 for the kind words directed toward the staff at USAGold-Centennial Precious Metals, and, yes, if The ABCs cracks the top 100 at Amazon.com, we'll use the proceeds to buy a castle in the Vienna Woods and sponsor an annual conference on the same weekend Dr. Mundell entertains at his castle in Italy. We'll call it the Shadow Gold Council of the Table Round.

Couple of questions, CB....

Is there a runway available nearby so that the knights and ladies can land their steeds (of the Leer jet variety)??

Also, we'll need a very large oaken table, preferrably round, and an oak cask of fine French wine, preferrably a well-chosen Bugundy. To match the table of course. We'll rely of course on your well-known good judgement.

Druid
(09/06/2003; 11:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108243)
misetich (9/6/03; 06:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108234)


"Volcker said prosecutions in corporate scandals such as Enron and WorldCom will not resolve systemic problems in a business world based on greed."

Druid: My dos centavos is that the debt manufacturers("systemic problems") are the problem(causative agent) and the idiots pillaging and plundering are the symptoms(effect) but get the idiot box(tv) treatment for the serfs to consume. In fact, those that are pillaging and plundering the both debt and equity holders are behaving in a very rational(self interest)way because they KNOW and SEE what is playing out before their very eyes. They're just taking their cut of the loot(under the friends and family plan)and taking off in the life boat so they can spend more time with their families.
Liberty Head
(09/06/2003; 11:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108244)
Re: Ron Paul's latest

Thank you turkey hunter for the link to Ron Paul's latest.

While, I am in complete agreement with every word, I have zero confidence that the public at large will ever see the truth. Given the choice between sound money and limited government spending, or tyranny, tyranny is clearly the popular choice. Wisdom is out, drama is in. The USA is in an irreversable decline. This decline will bring us many great dramas. The future belongs to China and India. Make no mistake, tyrants will want to take your gold. It is their nature to do so. It is prudent to stash it beyond their grasp.

We may be out numbered and surrounded, but we are not alone.
The fact that someone like Ron Paul is in Congress, is the proof.
When Ron Paul starts learning to speak chinese, make a run for the border.

Best Wishes
Cavan Man
(09/06/2003; 11:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108245)
Mr. Gresham
"WAR"; "What is it good for?" "ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!"

Why are governments, "constituted among men"? Only with social, economic and political JUSTICE will freedom truly ring and peace reign.

Shalom dear brother...CM
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/06/2003; 11:58:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108246)
Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Skydog
(09/06/2003; 12:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108247)
@Misetich, your #108236
You wrote:

"Incredible - how the Iraq issue remains unchallenged by the vast majority of Americans - how so many can entrust their future and their children's in the hands of so few - blindly having faith that these few are acting in Americas best interest"

Here is a quote from a Roman general 2000 years ago that knew the answer even then...

"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind.

And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all their rights unto the leader and gladly so.

How do I know? For this is what I have done...and I am Caesar."

Simply Me
(09/06/2003; 14:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108248)
Ceasar quote is fake
http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl-caesar-quote.htmSee link for explanation.
Simply
Melting Pot
(09/06/2003; 14:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108249)
Thoughts from the Gold Trail on Iraq conflict
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.htmlMany think the only way gold can rise in dollar terms is if USA prints to many! Truly, they have printed to many already. Gold will rise in dollar terms, many thousands even if treasury inflates currency no more.This rise in price will cost London much! You have seen the Bank of England report of gold that does not come home?

We are close to "much change". The oil reserves of the middle east show a history of value delivered for currencies of "broken promises"! The supply of oil was never the problem, only the "market of oil" in "what kind of money" that caused much distrust. Today, many try to understand oil thru a currency that cannot offer a final payment of true value. I tell you, supply and demand mean nothing in this realm. The "fight", is to bring oil down in US$ terms, then convert to an "open" partial gold payment. With gold priced correctly, oil would be very cheap for western, non producers. But, the owners of "local reserves" as Mexico, would suffer as gold would not be allowed for payment to them. The Euro, it could be the result of this war.

If the Euro wins, the Gold Wars will begin at $360, and crude in US$ could be in the hundreds?

"The USA/IMF and its�currency could not withstand cheap oil prices."

Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight" a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency" that it would bring!

Bring this thought into focus and you will inderstand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. You think long and hard on this!

This battle of wealth began long before our eyes were open. It was born as a conflict of the human spirit. Many teach the way of "honest dealings" and "earn your own way", then force their neighbor to accept a currency debt receipt, as payment for "real commerce goods". The world reserve currency is held by "default" not choice. Today. every digital money is a product of the US$ by nature of "it being the book keeping reserve". To this extent, the US$ is the only world currency! To this end, noone can see the true size of the "mismatch" in gold as money in US$. No country, Japan included, can sell dollar reserves without destroying their own currency! The BIS does not recognize other currencies as reserves, as they are, in themselves, a dollar product!

This "new gold war", it will be as "none before". The BIS will bring gold into the $320 to $360 range for the Euro. The US will attack the Euro for what it has become, "a new world oil currency" offered to remove the oil backing from the US$. At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. In this light, one can see why many large buyers have been taking in gold, as it is held in terms of value of "after the war". Not the traded price of today.--ANOTHER

And why was Iraq invaded? To prevent Iraqi oil production from ever making it to market! Do you now understand why Iraqi pipeline is continuously vandalized and civil war is "openly endorsed" by US? If this is not truth, then why has US & UK not provided larger military presence?

The warships are an attempt to keep oil prices from "falling" and world reserve fiat dollar use in demand!IOW Iraq oil cannot be allowed to come to market and lower general oil prices.......

Rumsfeld rules out more US troops for Iraq
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...05%2Fwirq05.xml

We Were Warned About This Chaos
http://www.counterpunch.org/fisk09052003.html

Britain and US overstretched by occupation
http://http://www.telegraph.co..._requestid=4205
Belgian
(09/06/2003; 15:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108250)
Some more Euroland thoughts....
The dis-unity (unanimity rule) and many divergences within the EU-12? going to 25? is often seen and quoted (rather ridiculed) as profound its weakness and therefore meaningless on the geo-political stage. I have my own little theory as to why this "percepted" disunity has to remain as such : To reach a consensus with a majority, produces a much weaker official standpoint than when things are decided and done "discretely" by the major ruling force (forces) within the squabbling EU bureaucracies, producing sufficient background noise when things are actually moving...moved, by the core of the political power carriers.

The simple modus operandi of the sudden fait accompli with the political soldiers producing some more noise.

*Sudden* changes, always appear to come out of the deep blue. This will be no different on many of the gold-matters.

The same will probably apply on a 180� turn in USUK policies in the ME. Maybe the resignation of Abu Mazen is such a precursor event on the attitude versus Israel and its 50 years old "function" within the ME process.

Under the disguise of "westernization" (democratization) of the ME (read oilreserves), the western traditional partners (US/EU) have one huge common problem with the status of Israel. This is dividing the dollar and euro block in many ways as to organize the orderly oil-flow for our economies in particular and for the rest of the world where oil-consumption is rising fast.

Note, how the EU is NOT included in the handling of the N.Korea threath ! A big difference with what happened 50 years ago when Eurolanders lost their lives overthere.
These (big) changes do point to different hidden agendas (and new alliances) for both US and EU.

The politicians on the telescreens, for public infotainment, are not the ones who discretely have the power to make changes happen.

Trying to make the point that the *oil for euro* is still leading the different "real" political actions, absolutely silently though. The Hans Eichel statement on German goldreserves was another of these needed public statements as to cap the goldprice from running away too early and at the in-appropiate moment. The "right" thing also needs the "right" timing ! Put the Equity Gold Fund under the same denominator.
Belgian
(09/06/2003; 16:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108251)
Had a keybord problem...
Most, if not all, public politicians (non strategists)aren't connecting the dollar > euro > oil, dots... IN PUBLIC. This is not for public consumption and we are the only happy fools that do discuss this, daily, on the CPM forum.
Euroland has no "Ron Paul" as a public mouthpiece. We can only try to decode Duisenberg and soon Trichet as the representative of the real decision makers on the real problems. These people are much ahead on the ordinary politicians that are continiously interviewed.

France is the only exception on the above rule and makes it much clearer (more public) what its global political intentions are. But this can't be done on the monetary (EMU) (euro-gold) front because of the unanimity rule and the delicate character of the matter.

Currency Exchange rates aren't managed democraticaly in the real sense of the word. So aren't interest rates and the value (pricing) of the goldreserves.

The politicians decide on the ME geopolitical strategies and indirectly influence the pricing policies of the ME oilreserves. This oilpricing has an impact on the different economies and theiur respective currencies and land herewith on the central bankers' platform. This moves the POG much more fundamentally than the commercial offer/demand equations. How many common politicians are even aware that there exists a goldreserve management ???

Russia AND China are still waiting on more Euroland taking more lead ! They do this through France ! ME Oilreserves and the euro plus dollar excesses, are playing a big role in this growing alliances. This can only be distilled from the French media in French of course. These analyses don't reach the international community on the same scale as does the dominating global Anglo-American (R.Murdoch) reporting.

For this reason, much of the Euroland actions go beyond the public stage. All comments on POG moves have are of A.A. origin as if Gold is "still" an exclusive dollar matter !

I suspect that with Trichet heading the core euro decision aparatus...we might expect some firework ? More probably when and if the USUK isn't making much bigger approaches (openings) to the EU and Co in ME (oilreserve) matters.
POG and the euro-dollar exchange rate might come into the persuasion toolbox under the French influence, far away from the general (divided)EU politicians' eyes. The globe's growing stashes of dollarreserves and the euro-gold-concept might finaly be used as a non violent weapon. Much to the displeasure of the pro-Atlantic factions within the present (old) and future (new) EU.

Will see !?






otish mountain
(09/06/2003; 18:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108252)
Melting Pot your #108249
I have thought long and hard on this particular section of Anothers Thoughts and for the life of me i am having great difficulty understanding this section.
Why did Iraq and Iran go to war so long?
Is the public being deceived that we would have cheap oil after gulf war 2 when in fact the government wants a high priced oil?

Sometimes I think I grasp the concept, then when I reread to confirm my understanding I loose my bearings.

If you or anyone else care to walk me through this I would be very greatful.

Shy Otish
Simply Me
(09/06/2003; 21:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108253)
also confused

"At first, the dollar will be partially sold by many Cbs, especially the ones with little local oil, Japan, Yes? As unneeded dollars are set free, the true value of real things will be seen in dollar terms, gold, cars, oil, etc.. "


This part also does not seem to apply to current situation.
Japan and China are piling up more dollars than ever to keep their currencies weak and prop up exports.

WHEN they DO start shipping dollars back to U.S., THEN it will be hyperinflation time.

But the avalanche has not yet begun. I wonder which stick of dynamite will blow the avalanche and begin this once-in-a-lifetime revaluation of all things physical?
Simply
Cavan Man
(09/06/2003; 21:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108254)
US must be in need of more coastal real estate ('ya think?)
LBI is too pricey!Bush on warpath over UN's shock report on Iran A-bomb
By Con Coughlin
(Filed: 07/09/2003)


America will tomorrow demand that the United Nations takes urgent action to prevent Iran acquiring the atom bomb as fears mount that Teheran is on course to develop a nuclear weapons capability within two years.

United States officials will make the demand at a special meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna that has been arranged to consider a 10-page report by Mohammed al-Baradei, the agency's director-general, into the state of Iran's nuclear programme.

turkey hunter
(09/06/2003; 22:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108255)
interesting thoughts
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:32
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

One new day gold will begin a rise that will end it's use as a trading medium. This reevaluation will end a tradition in London. No gold house will make a market that has no sellers, official world gold trade will end for many years! And with it will go the last true value to trade for oil. Oil will skyrocket in all currencies. Those who have metal will learn it's value in oil. All things in life change, the world will not be the same.

Date: Mon Nov 24 1997 21:08
Allen ( USA ) ( @Another ( Thoughts! ) and all RE: Mercantilism ) ID#255190:

.....With gold discounted to it's production cost and below, those that have it can trade it for it's monetary value. Make no mistake, the BIS knows gold in the many thousands. The future "reset value" of gold is the key. "support the dollar with oil and the currency system works" "fail the currencies and the dollar will come off the oil standard and the BIS will reset gold to $10,000+ with many conditions"

That is why they continue to accept the dollar as a reserve. If Japan or any other COUNTRY sells US treasury debt it's all over!.......

Turkey Hunter...... buy the gold now and don't worry about the up's and down's (charts).. gold will be revalued overnight.

Another (Thoughts) Sat. Nov. 22 1997 "A world waits for something to happen that is done"


Melting Pot
(09/06/2003; 22:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108256)
CONTROLLING THE WORLD'S MONETARY SYSTEM THE BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS
http://www.newswithviews.com/Veon/joan2.htmHow is dollar valued? Dollar is valued on FOREX by demand and use fundamentals. The higher the demand there is for dollar or any fiat currency, the higher the value, vis-a-vis, a lower demand places lower value on dollar.

What uses is dollar employed.

1) All international oil trade is settled in dollars

2) All international gold trade is settled in dollars

3) US Federal income taxes are settled in dollars

4) Dollar is recognized as global medium of exchange

Now if your an Arab country accepting dollars in trade for oil settlements with the intention of converting a portion of dollars into gold, you would seek a highly valued dollar as gold would be priced much lower in dollar terms, yes? The strong dollar (policy) would drive POG lower and lower allowing the purchase of more gold per bbl oil. So if you are oil producer you would demand a strong currency to trade your oil with.

The dollar for all intents and purpose is backed by oil and oil is then priced in gold via dollar standard. The dollar earns much seignorage for this privledge. Hence the dollar producers (US) must protect dollar value on FOREX by retaining high demand for dollar or dollar will lose privledge as oil currency for oil trade settlement.

The recent US/UK invasion of Iraq prevented excess oil production capabilities from the second largest known oil reserve from coming to market. If Iraqi oil comes to market the POO across the globe would decline. This is bad for dollar value, as there would be to many dollar credits floating in system causing demand for dollars to decline.

So how does dollar standard support and protect dollar monetary unit. They must REGULATE the amount of oil coming into market to retain demand for dollar as world reserve currency. Is it any wonder that Venezuela was target of coup and is it any wonder US troops are in Columbia? Both are major oil producers, yes? They are not there to protect oil, but to regulate oil supplies coming on open market.

Treasury Bonds, US stock market, etc. act as giant vacuum sucking up excess floating dollars taking said dollars out of market for a fee (interest). This allows dollar producers to produce even more dollar credits for the great recycle machine.

The US deficits really do not matter. Hear again "The US deficits really do not matter," at least for now. Every time US requires new funding, they can simply manipulate POO higher in dollar terms creating new seignorage profits, aka a new oil tax on the world.

How much does oil really cost a oil producer? Nothing other than cost of extraction. The more they produce the more they earn from their reserves. Increased production is name of game. This is where the disparity begins between the oil producers and monetary authorities. The oil producers want steady production and global economic growth for themselves and world but they are tied to dollar standard, dollar and BIS policy makers. Think of it this way, oil produces are slaves to monetary authorities. It really did not matter as long as oil producers receive "X" amount of gold at settlement and new production remained steady and growing. However POO in dollar "tax" terms has become excessive on world economic growth as dollars "real" value steadily declines due to debt/inflation pyramid. The dollar is done and finished as WRC and is only surviving because the replacement alternative is just now becoming operative. Know this, the US will default, no country can survive $43.5 trillion in debt and twin annual deficits of $1.2 trillion annually. Any thinking person can realize this will never be paid, never, ever, ever due to compound interest.

I ask you, if your a oil producer would you trade asset for evidence of debt? How absurd, trading value for liability! Would you continue to support and accept a bankrupt currency? The answer is axiomatic.

The world reserve FIAT currency has failed as a store of value, wealth and medium of "fair" exchange to all parties due to manipulations and interventions of dollar producers employing financial hegemony and global taxation to their benefit without consideration of backers of dollar standard (Oil Producers). One should never besmirch the hand that feeds them by creating currency bubble.

Hello Euro! Why isn't the Euro just another fiat currency? YES! But the Euro is backed by a small percentage of gold that represents "fair" trade and the discipline required of a currency that should bestowed and honored as "world reserve currency." Greshams law will terminate dollar standard through dynamic process, "Good money drives out bad if they exchange for the same price."

The currency and gold wars have begun. We watch as the trading blocks line up and ally themselves....

PS: Get ready for new currency when dollar bubble collapses and old currency dies Weimar style!

The (new) color of money

Unveiling the new $20 -- an effort to thwart counterfeiters -- is set for March 27.

The Nightmare German Inflation

http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.html

http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/05/news/money/

The Inflation Tsunami

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/HamTsunami.html

REF:

China's Top Legislator Calls for Establishment of New World Order

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200309/01/eng20030901_123505.shtml

Russia Strikes 'Historic' Saudi Deal

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/03/001.html

S'pore, Thailand to push for faster creation of single Asean market

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,208537,00.html?

FOLLY & FRAUD
WHAT IT'S REALLY COSTING US

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr090403.shtml

Testimony by Kent Smetters for the Subcommittee on the Constitution of The United States House of Representatives. Submitted on March 3, 2003, for hearing on March 6.

"Let me describe the current $43.5 trillion shortfall another way. Instead of raising payroll taxes, suppose we eliminate half of the rest of the federal government in 2004 except for Social Security and Medicare. In particular, we eliminate half of the federal government's spending on the military, homeland security, roads, education, veteran's affairs, agriculture, labor affairs, NASA, commerce, law enforcement, Medicaid, etc. � everything expect for Social Security and Medicare. And we do this not just in 2004 but forever. Also suppose that we don't change federal taxes so that people continue to pay taxes as projected. Now, for example, the $150 billion deficit projected for 2004 would turn to a $600 billion surplus! That sounds like a lot of money. But we would still accumulate surpluses too slowly over time. In particular, we would still be left with a fiscal imbalance of about $3.2 trillion. In other words, shutting down half of the rest of government forever is not enough to put the U.S. fiscal policy on a sustainable course."

http://www.house.gov/judiciary/smetters030603.htm
turkey hunter
(09/06/2003; 22:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108257)
Melting Pot # 108256
Thanks for that post #108256 it made things more understandable.
mikal
(09/06/2003; 23:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108258)
Bush to give speech tonight. Says: "We will spend what it takes"
CBS news is reporting that Bush will give a speech tonight(Sunday), the first in the White House since the start of the Iraq war. (His last speech was given at the "end" of the Iraq war aboard an aircraft carrier.)
And Colin Powell and Condolezza Rice are traveling to elicit support for tens of billions more Iraq funding and UN assistance.
The "ME peace process" is in danger approaching the 2nd anniversary of the 9-11 disaster on Thursday. I am constantly prepared for another possible power outage, telephone or internet disruption, gas lines, and more, given the incompetence and complacency of computer programmers and utility providers such as power plants and internet servers. But especially that of the "professional" profiteers in corporate management, banking and finance and the appointed officials and "elected" bureaucrats that dread words like "productivity" or "representation".
Liberty Head
(09/07/2003; 01:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108259)
Re: Melting Pot , msg #108256
Thanks for the great post Melting Pot.

Controlling the world's monetary systems is indeed a huge amount of power to wield. Gold and oil are very important in the scheme of things, however there are other important commodities as well. Above those important things is more important stuff like friends and family.
When discussing topics such as world domination, one must also consider the role of arms.
Thugs and goons will try to take the oil, the gold and our thought process as well. Global power shifts will not be bloodless. We may face many flight or fight decisions before POG goes ballistic.
Our future is unknowable, so by all means, make today a good one.

Best Wishes
Belgian
(09/07/2003; 02:40:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108260)
Reflexions on S.M. and O.M. questions.....
The world's debt-paper, named US$, tries to pull intrinsic worth from its forced association with "oil". That's why the dollar (US) has been dominating the ME, through its "intrigant" actions. Let those oil-rich states, artificially created by the former Britisch empire, fight between each other and make sure you (the dollar) have a reliable watchdog (Israel) on the spot.

That old...very old rule of divide, rule and conquer !
It happens everywhere and is practisized by all those with ambitions/lust for power.

The exhaustive 9 yrs Iran/Iraq war was another fine mess organized with the influence of outside powers who installed the different leading actors (dictators) at their (oil-dollar) convenience.

There will be no peace in the ME for as long as there remains the world's oil-reserves under their sand. Before we used oil, the same was happening with water-reserves.
Oil (and water) is (economic) life or death. Wealth or poverty.

It was the dollar's responsibility to organize the reliable oil-flow to the entire world. The whole world agreed on this and therefore supported the dollar in its "reserve" status. Things are (have been) changing with the creation of the euro.

It is impossible and totally out of the question that even only a fraction of the massively created, floating dollar-mass can, shall, be repatriated to sender/printer (US).
We have to accept this dollar-drama for as long as there is no alternative (euro) that is ready to take over the past dollar-function and use.

In the mean time, an increasing amount of dollars must be created as to make the dollar survive, function and being used up until the alternative can take over. The more ambitious and succesfull the euro-alternative evolves, the more dollars will be added to counter this dollar-competitor. That's why France takes the lead in not willing to co-finance the ME mess !

This makes the dollar (globe's reserve currency) a measure for "DEBT" (indebtness) and NOT a store of wealth as it was originally percepted under the gold standard.

*Flood* the globe with ever more dollar-confetti as to force everyone to accept this debt-paper, unconditionaly !
Undermine/weaken or make friends with all those who are able to question the dollar's authority. The EMU...the owners of the world's oil reserves...the Eastern producers of real goods and services !

One is "with" the dollar or "against" the dollar (reserve).
A very, VERY difficult choice for all non dollar printers who see their growing dollar-stashes become more and more "dependant" on the one and only dollar-manager, the US !

Price Hyperinflation (due to decades of relentless dollar hyperinflation) will start to manifest itself once the dollar supremacy "CAN" be questionned. For how long can the neocon doctrine (PNAC)hold ? And are we heading for another nuclear confrontation (cfr. Japan - Horoshima) as the finale in the dollar supremacy ? Or will the dollar-challengers back off and continue to accept, for some more time, the degradating but ruling dollar-reserve ??? That's what we are watching, daily. Not only us, gold-shrimps, but all those dollar-confetti-fortunes, with us.

*IF* the global economy cannot be re-launched...it will be blamed on the dollar-management and the dollar-challengers will press and gather around the euro as dollar-alternative and speed up its deepening process. This is going to be the most critical moment for all of us. A progressive, smooth $ > �, transition or a very turbulent one !? Watch POG's ($-� exch. rate-IRs-POO) behavior for the online (ex tempore)answer(s).

If the US-economy is more and more percepted as the economy of last resort...we have landed in a very precarious situation of a hyper-concentration of ultimate (US) power with a decreasing sense for global responsibility. The perfect coctail for having a "drama". The des-integration (failure) of the political economy and monetary/finacial collapse. Who wants to be blamed for this to happen ? That's what is confusing (immobilizing) many politicians in executing the painful but necessary structural reforms.

(read N. Hultberg at the neighbours)
silvercollector
(09/07/2003; 05:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108261)
Confusing posts in the last 24 hours...........
I don't get this 'US wants oil priced higher' business. Flatten the economy for the sake of....?

It was once discussed that US supplied arms to Iran & Iraq and political meddling so that the 2 would fight long and hard to keep each other weak. Does the US want a strong, solid, unified ME? No, the more internal squabbling the better. In addition more oil sales are required to repair the carnage after the fighting.

Quote from Cavan Man , "America will tomorrow demand that the United Nations takes urgent action ...." (w/ respect to Iran A-bomb)

At this late stage of the game why would the UN even listen to the U.S.? The US has insulted the UN every step of the way (Iraq II) to the point of calling them "irrelevant". The fact that USUK 'bypassed' the UN proves the obvious point that the US will do what it wants to do when it wants to. The UN, in the eyes of USUK is already "irrelevant".

Now that Iraw II is in disarray the USUK 'will allow' UN presence under the direction (the sole direction') of the US. The US will still 'lead' this retarded affair. France, Germany, Russia & China will agree to UN assistance provided UN had 'lead' role.

DID WE NOT JUST GO THROUGH THE SAME STUPITY PRE-IRAQ II?????????

As Belgium said, the trans-Atlantic rift grows larger. As long as the US continues to insult the common man the trans-Atlantic rift will grow until the US stands alone. It will be then that the world will decide to 'take the hit' and dump dollars en masse. The American people will soon have to recognize that the American government is out of control.

The American government does not and will not listen to anyone, therefore it need not ask.
Belgian
(09/07/2003; 07:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108262)
@silvercollector
I don't see the reason for your confusion. For as long as the dollar-system keeps on working...all parties will politically muddle along for as long as it POSSIBLY takes.
This is the classic consequence of a system that has already expired. After the "fait accompli" of the Iraqi business, the dollar hopes that renewed assistance might be lured in, AGAIN !

Don't try to "time" (even guess) the date of the final reckoning. In order to get re-elected, politicians are prepared to do anything. Always expect the unexpected. Even a withdrawel of USUK troops or sudden assistance from the EU. The status quo of the present situation is the worst of all choices for the Bush/Blair administration and is causing the worst possible *additional* damage to the US$'s reputation.

If Euroland can be lured into Iraq...it will have happened with enormous concessions from the dollar-side. Whatever these concessions might be.
Main point is that the euro doesn't want to lose the credit (oil for a euro) it has in the ME by taking the wrong decision and join the USUK without enough guarantees of succeeding in an orderly/peaceful rebuilding of Iraq AND a definitive solution for the Israeli/Palestinian question. Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be ?

Why else do you think that the French demand a Free Iraq of and for all Iraqi people ? This is the best opening point for the chance of having Iraqi(Iran and Saudi) oil for euro.
Turkey will join EMU in one way or another, sooner or later, and make the euro bridge towards the ME. The reason why Germany is ready to take a leading role in Afghanistan has much to do with the oil/gas developments on the Russian side of the globe. Putin & Co are germanophiles. Geopolitics are a gigantic domino play where one gets often confused because of the many irrationalities that come and go with this particular game.

And it is on this field that I can understand you are confused as I am still often. With the physical in possession ...we have no reason to be confused or anxious anymore. Let it all happen and add quality to your personal life without getting depressed about those ugly things happening out there. Gold also brings peace of mind when acquired with the correct motivations. Nice weekend to you.
Back to some more september gardening.

mikal
(09/07/2003; 08:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108263)
New threatening audio tape
http://www.msnbc.com/news/963020.asp?pne=msntvNew al-Qaida attacks threatened
Tape allegedly from terror network aired on Al Arabiya TV
DUBAI, Sept 7 �Snippit:
"A purported audio tape by a member of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network on Sunday promised more attacks against Americans everywhere and denied any links to the killing of a Shiite Muslim cleric in Iraq.
� "WE ANNOUNCE there will be new attacks inside and outside which would make America forget September 11," an al-Qaida spokesman said in the tape broadcast by the Arabic television channel Al Arabiya. It identified him as Abdel-Rahman al-Najdi."
misetich
(09/07/2003; 08:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108264)
Debt Trouble Could Be Piling Up Overseas
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/business/yourmoney/07VIEW.htmlSnip:

The total public debt of Asian governments has risen to nearly 70 percent of their gross domestic product, from less than 60 percent at the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. In Latin America, the debt ratio has climbed to 60 percent from about 40 percent.

By contrast, the debt ratio of industrialized countries is about 40 percent.
..........
Though the I.M.F.'s economists bent over backward to avoid inflammatory rhetoric, ...........a "sustainable" government debt would be about one-third its current level, the report said.
..............
Of course, poor countries are not the only ones that need to watch their debt. The United States government is by far the world's biggest government borrower, expected to run up nearly $1 trillion in new debt over this year and next.

If poorer countries need any lecturing about reining in their debts, American officials would be well advised to stay in the background.
*********
Misetich

Debt bubbles everywhere.
Almost every article stresses the "unsustainability" of debt levels, twin deficits (US)

Which currency will maintain its value in the future?

GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD

GOLD IS MONEY

All On Board The Gold Bull Express




misetich
(09/07/2003; 09:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108265)
The Ultimate Relay Race? Consumer Spending slowing
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

The Changing Of The Guard?...Although one or two data points do not make a trend, we are witnessing current anecdotes that suggest to us that cracks are appearing in the ability of households to continue supporting the economy looking ahead, at least in the fashion they have over the past three years or so. The recent consumer credit report revealed an actual contraction in month over month consumer credit outstanding. That might not sound like a big deal, but do you know how many times this has occurred on a month over month basis during the last ten years? Three, including last month. Looking back across many decades, contractions in consumer credit outstanding have only really occurred at significant recessionary troughs. As you can see in the following chart that chronicles year over year changes in total consumer credit outstanding, very much unlike prior post recessionary experience, the rate of change in annual consumer growth is currently in decline. It's clear that in historical post recessionary periods it has spiked higher as the forces of pent up consumer demand were unleashed upon a more broadly recovering economy. As for this cycle, there largely is no pent up demand to be expressed as we move forward. At least not of a magnitude characterizing prior post recessionary experience.

**********
Misetich

Consumer spending has been unusaully resilient during the mild recession in the US - aided by mortgage refinancing - however housing and auto have been the primary drivers in economic growth in boosting economic recovery post recessionary periods

Since auto and housing have/are peaking there will be little impetus from this two sources in fostering sustainable economic growth

Jobs are scarce - stock markets have priced in significant growth numbers and earning expectations

Energy prices are constantly rising. Grids and infrastrure are being poorly maintained

Cities and States are fiscally struggling

Not a pretty picture....

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 09:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108266)
Europe's faith in US 'crumbles'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3081254.stmIn the mean time, an increasing amount of dollars must be created as to make the dollar survive, function and being used up until the alternative can take over. The more ambitious and succesfull the euro-alternative evolves, the more dollars will be added to counter this dollar-competitor. That's why France takes the lead in not willing to co-finance the ME mess ! --Thoughts of Belgian msg#: 108260

Is this not signs of crumbling dollar standard as predicted by "Thoughts of Another?" IS US not dominated by UK financial district/LBMA? It all comes down to gold, always has always will. Keynes was a madman! "The law of supply and demand is not to be conned."--Alan Greenspan essay "Gold and Economic Freedom"

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure! They do reach for real things! Derivatives offer not a solid hold. It is well known that the modern gold market is fat with contracts derived from "intentions to supply". It is also known that the US$ continues on the "oil standard" because of this paper. No doubt, oil will continue to flow, but what currency will take this supply as we "walk down the mountain"?

In that day, "good money" will become "bad money" and "derivatives" will be paid to the holders of "derivatives"! In that day, a gold mine will also be paid in "derivatives", for it�s gold will be for the benefit of all.--Thoughts of Another

How does dollar standard defend against Euro, gold or oil currency? Many dollars are created and placed in foreign hands as a defense (burgeoning trade deficits). This defense relies upon human greed, namely that dollar holders will not except the losses incurred by swapping dollar for Euro or gold. This requires dollar value support and backing by POO as last ditch defense. How does one keep players out of gold? Easily, in the end allow the price of gold to rise until gold stops trading! Who will buy revalued gold at $5,000, $10,000 or even $30,000 USD or Euro? Noone except oil producers in settlement.

How will world destroy the 30+ yr. build up of debt that is preventing world economies from flourishing? It must be inflated away or defaulted upon before new "fair" system can be installed.

The game is really over now, all but crying, it's just a matter of time, to wit:

Europe's faith in US 'crumbles'
Thursday, 4 September, 2003

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3081254.stm

FORMER BRITISH DEFENSE SECRETARY WARNS AMERICA ABOUT A UNITED EUROPE (As summarized)

(May 27, 1998) In a speech yesterday at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, former British Secretary of State for Defense, Michael Portillo, warned that European monteary union and a unifed European foreign policy will erode the Amerian alliance with Europe. He said that a united Europe will benefit neither global security nor free trade saying that its future foreign policy could lead to the emergence of a bloc in opposition to the U.S. He said, "What I really want is for a debate to emerge in the U.S. about what the European movement is really about. Americans essentially are comitted to global free trade, while many in Europe are not. And I think they need to be careful about whether a common foreign policy in Europe might lead to a silencing of the British view, the emergence of a consensus to do nothing, and the emergence of a distinct view that there was a third way, a new and positively anti-American way."

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.html

Russia Strikes 'Historic' Saudi Deal
Wednesday, Sep. 3, 2003.

SNIPS:

Global hydrocarbon giants Saudi Arabia and Russia on Tuesday agreed to work together to stabilize world crude markets and cooperate in each other's oil and gas industries.

"This day will go down in history as it opens a new era in Saudi-Russian relations," Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud told President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials during his three-day visit to Moscow, the first by a Saudi leader in more than 70 years.

The world's top TWO oil exporters "intend to strengthen bilateral cooperation aimed at the stabilization of world energy markets," according to the text of Tuesday's five-year intergovernmental agreement posted on the government's web site.

The two countries also plan to work on "improving dialog between countries that produce carbon resources and countries that consume carbon resources," the agreement said. The goal is "the stabilization of world markets and the flourishing of the world economy."

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/03/001.html

NOTE: The world's top "TWO" oil exporters "intend to strengthen bilateral cooperation aimed at the stabilization of world energy markets, "The two countries also plan to work on "improving dialog between countries that PRODUCE carbon resources and countries that CONSUME carbon resources," "The goal is "the stabilization of world markets and the flourishing of the world economy." No mention of US involvment, a sign of times maybe?

COMMENT: Can goal of "stabilization of world energy markets" be accomplished with unstable fiat currency? I sayeth not. The goal if it is to be truly accomplished then requires a steady and reliable "international currency" for settlement of VALUE yes? A "disciplined" currency void of covert political agendas, outside manipulation and intervention. Can world economy flourish with violent swings in currency valuations? NO! How does one agree to contract for production of X amount of widgets at X amount of currency only to be "handed his head" due to floating FOREX exchange rates at time of settlement? Floating exchange rates are a failure in toto.

A world now preparing for sweeping economic change:

China's Top Legislator Calls for Establishment of New World Order
Monday, September 01, 2003

SNIPS:

China's top legislator Wu Bangguo said Monday in Manila that to achieve universal and lasting peace and development in Asia is a historic mission of all Asian parliaments and governments.

To such end, he made following proposals:

-- Promote the establishment of a "NEW" international political and economic order that is "FAIR and EQUITABLE." CHANGES in international "SITUATION" and progress of human civilization call for an international order that reflects the common interests of the majority of countries and peoples. It is incumbent to gradually adjust and reform what is unfair and unjust in the "EXISTING ORDER" and push for democracy in international relations. Under the new order we pursue, all countries will respect and consult one another politically and complement one another and seek common development economically.(emphasis added)

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200309/01/eng20030901_123505.shtml

S'pore, Thailand to push for faster creation of single Asean market
Sept 6, 8.50 pm (Singapore time)

SNIPS:

SINGAPORE - Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra will push for an earlier "END" date for the establishment of an Asean Economic Community (AEC) during an summit in Bali next month, the two leaders said on Saturday.

The original target of 2020 is too far, they said, especially with Asian giants China and India moving to complete a web of trade arrangements with their neighbours within a decade.

'Why is it too long? Because China and India and "THE OTHERS" are moving too quickly. So we want to see whether we can advance the end date,' he said. (NOTE: fraudien slip? "THE OTHERS")

The vision also includes a "EUROPEAN" Union-style "integrated" Asean market to be able to compete with China and India, which are now drawing the bulk of global investment flow into Asia. (emphasis added)

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,208537,00.html?

"They brought the Chinese onto their side by neutralizing the rest of the Asian competition. China hates Japan and would like nothing better than to watch them die as they stick with the US and the dollar. China also picked up huge gold holdings these last few years with the help of the BIS. They will easily fit into the Euro world and enjoy a massive trading block with Europe!"--Thoughts of Another

What is end game in Euro V. Dollar? The bottom line...It's an effort to re-establish olde Europe again. Olde Europe cannot be re-estabilished with WRC dollar controlled by NY & London. To wit:

"I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed. Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid, enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that comes to maturity today.

New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal!"--Thoughts of Another

Interview with Tatyana Koryagina, Russian Economist, Duma Commission on Economic Politics

Pravda: All the participants at the hearings stated that America is a huge financial pyramid which will crash soon. Still, it is hard to understand how this could happen in the first and richest country of the world � without a war, without missile or bomb strikes?

Koryagina: Besides bombs and missiles, there are other kinds of weaponry, much more destructive ones. ...

Pravda: Just these forces intend to smash America on August 19?

Koryagina: There are international "super-state" and "super-government" groups. In accordance with tradition, the mystical and religious components play extremely important roles in human history. One must take into account the shadow economy, shadow politics and the "RELIGIOUS COMPONENT," while predicting the development of the present financial situation.

I find this a most interesting article (infra) when put in proper perspective when reviewing Koryagina statements on international "super-state" and "super-government" groups. Namely in accordance with tradition, the mystical and "religious components" play extremely important roles in human history. To wit:

Render unto the Pope...
30 August 2003

SNIP:

There is much debate about whether the EU is a democracy, a theocracy, an oligarchy or a collective dictatorship, but at root it is none of these. It is an amphictyony - a confederation of states established around a religious centre. A Catholic EU will inevitably result in the subjugation of Britain's Protestant ethos to Roman Catholic social, political and religious teachings. The Queen's coronation oath 'to govern the peoples of the United Kingdom according to their laws and customs' and 'to maintain the Protestant Reformed religion established by law' is negated by the process of deeper European integration.

"Accession to the constitution for Europe" would finally confirm that the United Kingdom "yields" to the suzerain European Ecumenical Community - an empire in which everything belongs to Caesar, and where Caesar is God. Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=old§ion=current&issue=2003-08-30&id=3450

("Rendering the euro unto him would be all that remains for this vassal state to perform.")

Is the picture becoming clearer with every sentence? "History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure!" .......and....."Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal."

Defending the dollar standard with bogus terrorism:

"This war on terrorism is bogus"

The 9/11 attacks gave the US an ideal pretext to use force to secure its global domination

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/iraq/comment/0,12956,1036687,00.html

India spins on its own axis (but only after gold market bombing)

NEW DELHI - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is due in India next week to cement a new India-Israel-United States axis for fighting Muslim fundamentalist terrorism. He will be closeted with Indian leaders trying to firm up a core alliance against terrorism on the second anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the US.

"Indian officials have told the media that stronger India-US relations and India-Israel relations have a natural logic as the three countries are prime targets of terrorism and have "a common enemy". So the need of the hour is a "joint action", they added."

http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EI06Df02.html

Syrian Gov't Media: Israel Bombed Baghdad's U.N. Headquarters, Jordanian Embassy, Abu Gharib Prison and Water Main

"In whose interest was the creation of anarchy and destruction in Iraq? In whose interest was [bringing] the loss of security and stability to Iraq and the entire Arab region? Who, through such crimes, works for prolonging the hell for which Arabs are paying with their lives, with their future, and with their children's future?� Why is there talk of the reasons for hatred and animosity [for America] at a time when Israel's largest budget allocations are for besieging the occupied cities, destroying homes, arresting youths, and killing children?�

"De Mello devoted himself to helping the Iraqi people� [but] was killed by a hand with a supreme interest in prolonging this anarchy and destruction. De Mello's murder shows that terror does not discriminate between color, religion, ethnic origin, or nationality. It is, rather, a force of absolute evil, acting against the forces of good, security, and peace. The forces of good and peace in the world must unite today to put an end to this insane and useless killing, so that de Mello and others, who believed in and worked for humanitarianism, will not have died in vain."

http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD56503

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**

Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar! Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market economy".

*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **

Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead Japan.

**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **

Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!

***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. ***

The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.

**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**

Perhaps, "who control them"?

**The Swiss?

Yes.

**The eurocentral banks?

Yes.

**Who does BIS really represent?

"old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without war".

**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS?

answered.

**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe?

Yes. ---"Thoughts of Another"

"The corporate grip on opinion in the United States is one of the wonders of the Western world. No First World country has ever managed to eliminate so entirely from its media all objectivity � much less dissent.

"Of course, it is possible for any citizen with time to spare, and a canny eye, to work out what is actually going on, but for the many there is not time, and the network news is the only news even though it may not be news at all but only a series of flashing fictions..." � Gore Vidal
The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Confusing issues yes? But it is possible for any citizen with time to spare, and a canny eye, to work out what is actually going on. We cannot ever say we "really" know or possess the correct knowledge of what is actually going on, but we can connect certain dots in the Matrix.

Comments Welcome! Caveat Emptor

MP
Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 10:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108267)
Boogie man now appearing: Economic collapse at hand???
New al-Qaida attacks threatenedDebt Trouble Could Be Piling Up Overseas
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/07/business/yourmoney/07VIEW.html

The Ultimate Relay Race? Consumer Spending slowing
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Underfunded Pensions Double in U.S.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=0TE54AEIUN4D4CRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=3388331

Pension Problems and Insider Sales
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=2163219&CFTOKEN=26251456&category=Market%20Commentary≠wsletterid=1020&menugroup=Home&aol=1

Paper Money and Tyranny
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2003/cr090503.htm

China defiant on currency rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3200107.stm

Cuba starts to ease out the dollar
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3084711.stm

Saudi curbs on oil output drive up cost
Forecasts of easing prices hurt by sabotage in Iraq
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2003/08/29/saudi_curbs_on_oil_output_drive_up_cost/

"gold and oil can never flow in the same direction"--Another

How convienient for TPTB that the boogie man Usama (ex Cia operative under former Vice Pres. & Pres. GW Bush)and minions to arrive on scene with new threats of terrorism.

(Hey Dad can I borrow Bin for a few years!)

In the words of Gen. Douglas MacArthur.....

"Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear � kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor � with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it..." � General Douglas MacArthur 1957

The Five Keys to a Long-Term Bull Market in Gold Now In Place

1. The US Current Account must be in a Deficit position and growing. Yes, this is a present condition and shows no fundamental signs of reversing for a significant time. This is the account that measures the amount of US dollars in the hands of non-US entities. It is usually invested primarily in US Federal Debt instruments.

2. An intact negative trend in the US Dollar overall must exist. It should have the characteristics of a bear market. This is in fact true for the US Dollar today. We have a classic long-term top called a Head & Shoulders formation, which was subsequently confirmed by price and volume action. Even the dollar bulls now are looking only for the dollar to stabilize at lower levels. This criterion is in place for a long-term bull market in gold.

3. The general commodity market is showing in many ways, both fundamentally and technically, that it is in a base formation from which one can expect higher prices. We shall discuss the technical characteristics further to sustain that this ingredient has begun to support gold over the long term.

4. Trust in paper assets must be waning for gold to assume an investment role internationally. We see the recent decision against Andersen, the comments on GE & IBM accounting practices and Enron as examples of causative items, which have turned investors away from the absolute belief, in existence from 1980 until now, that paper assets were storehouses of value. We believe this ingredient is in favor of gold's long-term bull market.

5. The momentum in the appreciation of the bond market must be decelerating. We see this ingredient as positive now to a long-term bull market in gold.

The drama continues!

Caradoc
(09/07/2003; 11:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108268)
Melting Pot: Great list!!
You've done a great job of listing the things now in place that indicate POG will be going up. Let me be bold enough to add to the list:

* Prospect that Volker and others meeting in Siena on the 26th will be as blunt as Volker himself was in recent statement. Result: IMF tells US to shape up, either by formal devaluation or by explaining how we plan to cover our debt; i.e., Mission Impossible given the implications of compound interest.

* Tonight, President Bush tells the world that we're going to do (spend) whatever is necessary in Iraq.

Adding to your terrorism point, it's worth noting that the possibility of a "dirty bomb" (conventional explosives used to broadcast radioactive material) has been much discussed in US media, but always assuming that terrorists would pick a city or two to broadcast what is thought of as readily available radioactive waste like medical barium, radioactive iodine, etc., with result that a couple hundred thousand die, the market tanks, and it takes a couple of years to clean up the mess. This approach by the media may have been a conscious attempt by the media -- or whoever feeds examples to them -- to downplay the danger of a dirty bomb. The truth is that reactor by-products like strontium 90 and cobalt 60 are nasty enough that a coffee can-sized load could be launched 200 feet up by rocket propelled grenade and the resulting radiation would kill millions and make the city uninhabitable for centuries.

A grim thought, and I'd rather see gold double or quadruple in value based on the things you posted than have to figure out the multiple that would result from a few such strikes against US cities.

Caradoc
Druid
(09/07/2003; 11:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108269)
Belgian (9/7/03; 07:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108262)

"Back to some more september gardening."

Speaking about something that remotely resembles gardening, I would like to share a wonderful opportunity in learning that I experienced yesterday. My mother-in-law has needed her yard mowed for sometime now and I could see the that there was no rush by the other siblings to get it done, so consequently, yours truly took upon himself to get the job done for her. My own good will policy inititiave if you will. Upon completing this task in the wonderful heat and humidity of a Texas afternoon, I noticed that all was not well and that Druid must have missed some, from what my perspective appeared to be, "weeds" near this beautiful rose bush. I went ahead and for the good of all pulled these weeds. Initially there was a lot of happiness emanating from my mother-in-law over the fact that her yard had been mowed(she really is particular about this). Well, some 15 hours later and after tending too her rose bushes my mother-in-law got a hold of my wife and told her that some miscreant had destroyed her "mums" next to her rose bush. In a full 24 hours I went from hero to miscreant and I couldn't take her to the local nursery fast enough to replace that which I mistakenly destroyed under the act of trying to help. Well, things are back to normal and I can eat mom's home cooking without having some else taste it first. Well, this another one of those magical events that gets chalked up into Druid's "Lesson's Learned" playbook for future reference.
Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 11:34:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108270)
@Caradoc: How Changes in the Dollar`s Value Affect the U.S. Economy.
http://www.polyconomics.com/showarticle.asp?articleid=1731If there really are "real" foreign terrorists, what have the elites done to anger them/someone so badly? Maybe defaulting on gold loans or something along financial lines?

Remember Nixon defaulted gold peg on August 15, 1971, a thirty year "gold bond loan" would become due August 15, 2001.

Is it just a coincidence Russian Economist Dr. Tatyana Koragina predicted a collapse of dollar on August 19, 2001???

"Russian Economist Tatyana Koryagina Uncovers New Players
in the New World Order Drama."

SNIP:

Dr. Koragina is a trusted advisor to Russia's President, Vladamir Putin. She gained prominence by accurately predicting the collapse of the Russian economy in 1998.

Then on July 12th 2001, she predicted the collapse of the American economy after an attack on the US. This is pretty scary as she predicted this to happen on August 19th�which�ironically was only a few weeks before the attack on the World Trade Center.

http://www.propagandamatrix.com/true_world_order_koryagnia.html

Hmmmm.......

Usama is nothing new to the American experience, just refined and presented a little differently.......

"The minority, the ruling class at present, has the schools and press, usually the Church as well, under its thumb. This enables it to organize and sway the emotions of the masses, and make its tool of them." � Albert Einstein
letter to Sigmund Freud July 30, 1932

"The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda accomplishments of the dominant political mythology." � Michael Parenti Political scientist and author of Inventing Reality: The Politics of News Media

"The U.S. Government spends more than $400,000,000 per year to employ more than 8000 workers to create propaganda favourable to the United States. The result: 90 films per year, twelve magazines in 22 languages, and 800 hours of Voice of America programming in 37 languages with an estimated audience of 75 million listeners � all describing the �virtues� of the American way." � Pratkanis and Aronson
Age of Propaganda: the everyday use and abuse of persuasion
1992

"The CIA is not now nor has it ever been a central intelligence agency. It is the covert action arm of the President's foreign policy advisers. In that capacity it overthrows or supports foreign governments while reporting �intelligence� justifying those activities. It shapes its intelligence, even in such critical areas as Soviet nuclear weapons capability, to support presidential policy.

"Disinformation is a large part of its covert action responsibility, and the American people are the primary target of its lies." � Ralph McGehee former CIA intelligence analyst Deadly Deceits: My 25 Years in the CIA

"To make sense of [American] political discourse, it's necessary to give a running translation into English, decoding the doublespeak of the media, academic social scientists and the secular priesthood generally.

"...the effect [of doublespeak] is to make it impossible to find words to talk about matters of human significance in a coherent way. We can then be sure that little will be understood about how our society works and what is happening in the world..." � Noam Chomsky What Uncle Sam Really Wants

"Next the statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting the blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception." � Mark Twain The Mysterious Stranger 1916

"One of the intentions of corporate-controlled media is to instill in people a sense of disempowerment, of immobilization and paralysis. Its outcome is to turn you into good consumers. It is to keep people isolated, to feel that there is no possibility for social change." � David Barsamian journalist and publisher

"I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America." � Alexis de Tocqueville French political thinker, traveller author of Democracy in America 1805-1859

"Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger." � Herman Goering Nazi Air Force (Luftwaffe) commander at the Nuremberg Trials

Nothing new here, please move along! (LOL)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/07/2003; 14:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108271)
Retails in bookstores for $14.95. Buy it here for only $5.95.
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

turkey hunter
(09/07/2003; 14:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108272)
India: Gold's Share Dips Below 5.5% On Rising Forex Reserves
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=41621snip......

"There is a four-point agenda for the RBI and its new governor. The first one is to increase the overall quantity of gold in the Forex kitty. In addition, it is important that India is able to develop an efficient spot and forwards market for gold. Also, India needs to have sufficient liquidity, regular, safe and cheap gold supply system with good delivery standards which are also pre-requisites for the smooth functioning of a bullion exchange.

A significant percentage of household savings in India are canalised into gold. While this is very positive, most of this is executed through the (informal) jeweller sector. In order to provide the consumer with more choice and with the RBI's support, there is a need to channelise a part of this Rs 5,000 crore annual investment flow through the organised banking system by actively promoting Gold Savings Accounts and Gold Accumulation Accounts.



Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 15:07:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108273)
Money is a symbol system for exchanging real things by proxy.
Levi PhilosMoney does not stand alone.

Society is a mutual support organization.

The dead do not support the living.

Money, as a symbol system by which real stuff can be traded in proxy, must of necessity symbolically represent real stuff in believable ways.

When we gold bugs (and the anti-gold bugs) cry "Collapse is near!", then we ask ourselves what remedies are proposed?

Are we to obtain piles of gold and silver coins and stop doing meaningfull work?

Are we to sit around and admire the little piles of metal like boy scouts around a campfire? Has real money been reduced to such a conceptual notional ideation?

Money is a symbol system for exchanging real goods and services by proxy, and as an institution of human design will work better when it symbolically displays the entropy, shelf life, storage cost, and so forth of real stuff.

Money does not stand alone.

Essentially, money is an extension of speech.

When farmer A leans over the fence and says to farmer B that he will trade some chickens for vegetables, the words are the money, and a handshake the contract and bond. This is mutual credit in action.

Here is Marshall McLuhan on money as a branch of language:

Marshall McLuhan in Understanding Media - The Extension of Man (1963-64) on page 142:

"In a word, money is not a closed system, and does not have meaning alone. As a translator and amplifier, money has the exceptional powers of substituting one kind of thing for another..... Money, which had been for centuries the principle transmitter and exchanger of information, is now having its function increasingly transferred to science and automation."

Marshall McLuhan Again:

"Like works and language, money is a storehouse of communally achieved work, skill, and experience.... Even today money is a language for translating the work of the farmer into the work of the barber, doctor, engineer, or plumber. As a vast social metaphor, bridge, or translator, money - like writing - speeds up exchange and tightens the bonds of interdependence in any community. It gives great spatial extension and control to political organization, just as writing does or the calendar. It is action at a distance, both in space and in time. In a highly literate....society, �time is money� and money is the store of other people�s time and effort." (page 136)

Here is Dr Blain of the University of Southern Illinois:

http://www.siue.edu/SOCIOLOGY/journal/blain.htm

Begin quote from Blain�s writing:

"The symbols variable includes four types; speech, writing, numbers, and money. In that order, they carry decreasing amounts of information, increasing distances. The invention of writing reduced entropy because people could write their messages in a more durable form than the sound waves of spoken language. Simon Dinitz, a colleague at Ohio State, suggested that Marshall McLuhan�s, Understanding Media: Extensions of Man (1964) might be helpful to me. McLuhan suggested that money was a form of communication like speech and writing. Parsons also had suggested that money was a medium of communication, especially important in the transactions that occur between households and business firms. After reading a small paperback by a retired dentist, Dr. Edward Popp, Money: Bona Fide and Non-Bona Fide, (1970) I understood money as a medium of communication that conveyed less information than ordinary writing but longer information chain distances. This relation of money to speech and writing was reinforced by how easily the economic concepts of inflation and money velocity fit the paradigm. Inflation is loss of value, that is, loss of information, with money. Money velocity is the number of times money changes hands in a given time period, that is, information chain length.

Seeing money as a medium of communication immediately raised the question, When money talks, what does it say?

Quickly, I realized that money does not say what people want. People must say what they want with a spoken or written statement, or perhaps with a gesture. Perhaps money says how much people want something, but that would not explain why someone would give it to them.

Here is more on Marshall McLuhan on money as an act of communication:

http://www.cyberclass.net/marshall.htm

Here, you can find the two Dr Popp books:

http://www.appropriate-economics.org/materials.html

Ok, by what process does value get inducted into money?

http://www.moneymaker.com/italy/lire-1e.htm

What is the ultimate value against which other values are compared?

It is said that a man is a gene�s way of begetting another gene.

The ultimate value choice against which all other values are measured is that action which will keep the person alive into tomorrow - or if life itself is threatened - pass the person�s genes forward into the future.

Gold, as a value standard, really is about stopping the lying. We have a serious problem today with liars. When you create algorithms for constant value (Irving Fishers indexing) where a gold dollar is the number being indexed, then the result is a degree of stability resulting from the inability of liars to ply their trade.

The usual question raised about "value" is actually a misplaced anxiety masking the true question. The true question is "How do I know this money symbol will trade for something else of value?" or, in other words, "Who is the guarantor of specific performance?"

What did Nobel prize winner Soddy say about money?

http://www3.sympatico.ca/truegrowth/kutyn.htm

Bastiat said value was a comparison of one service against another service. Bastiat, in defining value, quotes Condillac that in any exchange their must be "two gains"; otherwise an exchange would not take place. Bastiat seeks to go behind this statement, but does so by arguing that value arises from the exchange of "services" for other "services" (cf. Essays, pp. 160-161). (Extracted definition from Mises site:)

http://www.mises.org/bastiat200.asp

For much more on Bastiat on the topic of value:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basHar0.html

Or go to the table of contents. Chapter five is titled "On Value" but chapter eleven is equally instructive on this topic.

Dr Popp explained why the "imaginary value" of coinage needs to exceed the commodity value of the metals contained within the coinage or the coin would be removed from circulation. ($50.00 face value Gold Eagle)

Riegel very nearly invented a LETS system in the forties. You can find two Riegel documents here: (catch the Dr Popp files also)

http://www.appropriate-economics.org/materials.html

and more Riegel data here:

http://www.newapproachtofreedom.info and

http://www.reinventingmoney.com/

The "Dove" is correct in that we need debt forgiveness, and XXXX is certain that debt forgiveness will happen because it is mathematically necessary, but beyond that, your understanding of what money actually is will be furthered by thinking of any act of giving or receiving money as an act of communication.

However, the rules for money as communication necessarily include a high need for truth and accuracy. Gold, silver, or deposits of other commodities of commonly accepted
"value" are really acting as performance bonds.

Silvio Gesell�s concepts apply to warehouse receipt money that is 100% backed by product, but not really to credit money.

For instance I�ve got this 1970 Rolls Royce Silver Shadow

(http://bizseen.com/rolls/index.htm)

and since you have an empty garage, I would like to store it in your garage. This is a valuable automobile in short supply, and I want you to provide a secure building and a guard to prevent theft plus an insurance policy against storms and fire. I don�t want you loaning it out to anybody because when I come to take it for a ride, I expect you to hand me the keys without question. I will carry the title to the vehicle as my claim to this auto. And I want you to provide all this for free!

Sound silly?

Sure, but many people expect that from a bank. One thousand depositors of gold could easily deposit the value of several Rolls Royce autos.

A gold certificate therefore is a title claim to a gold deposit held in storage at a bank.

Just as the garage owner would be correct to charge a substantial monthly fee on the storage of one Rolls Royce, a banker would be justified to charge a "carry fee" on a gold certificate title claim to a gold deposit. Fair is fair!

That is the difference between what Japanese banks and the Dallas fed are talking about on a "carry charge" on credit money and what Gesell was describing. The Gesellian concepts only apply to warehouse receipts that are redeemable in actual goods.

The event most people read about at Worgl Austria was not exactly true to the concept. The major held Austrian money in an account (the Austrian money was the shilling which in turn may have been redeemable) and local money was issued against the deposit. It did prove quite successful and circulated at a rate that was at least 12 times the normal rate. Hans Eisenkolb has more details on his website.

However, the previous run of the Wara note was in Germany. The Wara started sort of like some local community currency startup backed by the good will of the users. It faltered along with very limited success until something very significant happened. The owner of a coal mine decided trying the Wara was better than nothing and backed the Wara note with coal. At this time in history coal was the main provider of heat and power so it had a nearly universal market in Germany. Now, the Wara note said "This is a title claim on coal. Pay a monthly storage cost on the coal, or pick up the product by presenting the title at the mine shaft."

Using algorithms for constant value (search for the Borsodi algorithm) thus limiting the original issue to a half dozen cereal grains, this concept would absolutely stabilize the value of money and solve a number of social issues at the same time. When new money came into existence in direct proportion to cereal grains harvested and ready for market, food distribution and food shortages would end up to the point where the earth could deliver no more. Bankers who were now dependent upon demurrage charges on circulating currency would have no incentive to hold money symbols in shortage.

In turn, the bankers (creators of the warehouse receipt that is hypothecated into general circulation medium of exchange) need to be held responsible for delivery of actual product. Specific performance of contract or go to prison. 100% backing.

Two faces of debt is a 390Kb download.

http://www.globaldebtsolution.com/pdf/TwoFacesOfDebt-ChicagoFeds.pdf

Modern Money Mechanics is about 360 kb html file.

http://landru.myhome.net/monques/mmm2.html#MODERN

Mark Twain said there are three kinds of liars. Liars, damned liars and statistics. After looking through MMM several years back, I realized that the charts showing debt growth and the predictions derived from the charts could be inverted and predictions made about what would happen should debt reach its final destination - exponential dead end.

The Turmel Group is an open archive and that piece is found here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel/message/1225 of the Turmel list.

This next URL will open the subject lines of 100 messages on the Turmel list:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel/messages/1164?viscount=100

The first message, #1164 is titled "The Stone Donut Money of Yapp."

If you look through the Monques page, down at the bottom is a series titled GILBERT�S LETTERS. It is relatively short and of some humor.

Robert Carroll has been writing on the money system for over 20 years.

Perhaps a critical question has not been directly addressed. That question is, "Who is the owner of the credit?"

The fifth plank of the communist manifesto clearly puts the ownership of credit in the hands of the state with banks empowered to hypothecate the credit into terms of a common currency.

Proudhon said that the only proper credit was mutual credit, that is to say that people could extend credit to each other. LETS systems is a formalized system of mutual credit.

Riegel said credit is something that producers could extend to consumers of their products. The state in this model is a consumer and could be extended credit, but any associated credit creation interest charges should be paid to the producer.

The present United States dollar is created by this process: A promissory note is written to the federal reserve banking system and evidenced by a deposit of bonds. The backing for this promissory note is the taxation power of government. A corresponding credit to the treasury of the US is entered in the double entry bookkeeping system and the credit spent into circulation. The bonds held by the fed are also a marketable financial instrument.

The flaw here is that neither the government nor the banking system are producers of anything. The second flaw is that the money to pay the interest charges on the bonds is not concurrently created. The process degenerated into an enslaving process where the people are finally looked at as the property of government and all capital becomes owned by the banking system.

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present
civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

A philosophical shift to where credit is the property of individuals and any hypothecation process would reflect that fact is needed. Major Clifford Douglas whose work I am NOT familiar with may have shed some light on the needed philosophical shift.

Toward a deeper understanding,,,,,,,,

I suspect there is an entirely different way of looking at financing public utilities. (Public utilities in this message refers to more than electrical generation or irrigation storage dams. Public utilities can be airports, highways, or possibly even the school system.)

When a group of people in a region recognize a publicly shared need and a solution is agreed upon; the present system creates bonds (government bonds are promissory notes drawn against the government�s ability to collect taxes) and these bonds are sold to persons who have "savings."

However, consider that all the ideas and all the work and all the materials are supplied by the people. All the financier has done is supply pieces of paper enabling the work to proceed. Try thinking of these pieces of paper as permission slips. The people had the idea, the plan, the labor, and the materials, but they needed to wait for the financial system to give them permission to proceed. The hypothecated debt instrument becomes a debt to the people and a credit to the financier.

Thomas Edison noted......

"It is absurd to say that our country can issue $30,000,000 in bonds and not $30,000,000 in currency. Both are promises to pay; but one promise fattens the usurer, and the other helps the people. If the currency issued by the Government were no good, then the bonds issued would be no good either. It is a terrible situation when the Government, to increase the national wealth, must go into debt and submit to ruinous interest charges at the hands of men who control the fictitious values of gold."
.
"Look at it another way. If the Government issues bonds, the brokers will sell them. The bonds will be negotiable; they will be considered as gilt edged paper. Why? Because the government is behind them, but who is behind the Government? The people. Therefore it is the people who constitute the basis of Government credit. Why then cannot the people have the benefit of their own gilt-edged credit by receiving non-interest bearing currency on Muscle Shoals, instead of the bankers receiving the benefit of the people's credit in interest-bearing bonds?"--Thomas Edison

Shouldn�t the completed public utility become owned as a credit to the people?"

Now, consider an answer supplied by using demurrage to retire the circulation over time, rather than taxation. In this model, the new money is printed and used to pay for the construction of the public utility. Over time, the utility ages as entropy sets in.

Over time, the created "permission slips" are retired as entropy is expressed in the symbol system we call money.

Somehow seems simpler to administer than the present system of taxation. Just use point of payment technology already used to run sales taxes to extract a demurrage charge on the circulating currency.

[The message above was posted to the IJCCR list; links below]

Community email addresses:

Post message: ijccr@yahoogroups.com
Subscribe: ijccr-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
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IJCCR website: http://www.geog.le.ac.uk/ijccr

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

http://www.freedomdomain.com/bankquot.html

Plenty of great links in this thread! The entire money issue can be solved by returning to the bi-metallic standard of honest and fair money concepts! Caveat Emptor

R Powell
(09/07/2003; 15:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108274)
COT report
I'm late this weekend completing my homework which always includes inspecting the COT reports of many items. Gold is always on the radar screen. Being a seasoned veteran of COT reports, I thought I had developed a business like callousness to protect me from startling reports but...well, how can I explain this...I was shocked! Rich, how can you be unnerved over paper contract numbers? Yes, I understand, I guess it's a paper trading thing, excuse me.

Anyway, the cause of my astonishment is with the gold market numbers as of 9/2/03. The large speculative players added a net 22,620 long and the small specs added 4,138 more for a total of 26,758 new longs. Okay so far, and these speculative boys also added shorts (probably spread trading) but the selling (reduced longs and new shorts totaling 26,620) came from the commercials. In one weeks time the commercials sold a boatload of gold and the specs grabbed them all and then some! Open interest increased by 31,972 to 274,981.

There was no short covering at all! All three groups added short contracts while the speculators not only bought more longs but also greatly increased their percentage of the longs.

For those who like to envision this trading as a war between the nasty cartel of paper gold sellers and the forces of good buying gold, this was an epoch battle. The buyers withstood an onslaught of selling (25,228), absorbed it all and even forced the cartel to use some of their reserves (1,530 of their scarce long contracts). I would love to know if this battle was initiated by the sellers or the buyers? It was won decivively by the buyers. How "weak" are these so-called weak new longs? Analysts say that a real, good ripsnortin bull market must- must- have more than just short covering. There must be new demand. Gentlemen and ladies, I submit that with absolutely NO shortcovering shown in this report and O.I. soaring, we have demand. As was answered in "Dune" to the inquiry if there was wormsign; we have wormsign, the likes of which this COT inspector has never seen! How strong is this demand and how strong and solid are the (evil?) sellers? We shall see!
Happy weekend to all
Rich

Gonlyold
(09/07/2003; 15:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108275)
Documenting Gold Transactions
http://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll?f=templates&fn=main-h.htm&cp=PORCSome time ago I mentioned that Ohio has mandated laws on the sale of gold and other precious metals. At the time I didn't post the cites in the Ohio Revised Code (ORC). For your information it's listed above and here are some excerpts.

According to the ORC, each precious metal purchase from a seller to the dealer must be documented by Ohio Precious Metals Dealers,.

"� 4728.06 Books and forms to be used and kept

Every person licensed under this chapter shall keep and use books and forms approved by the superintendent of financial institutions, which shall disclose, at the time of each purchase, a full and accurate description including identifying letters or marks thereon of the articles purchased, with the name, age, place of residence, driver's or commercial driver's license number or other personal identification, and a short physical description of the person of the seller. The licensee also shall write in the book the name of the maker. The licensee shall keep the books in numerical order at all times at the licensed location, open to the inspection of the superintendent or chief of or head of the local police department, a police officer deputed by the chief or head of police, or the chief executive officer of the political subdivision thereof. Upon demand of any of these officials, the licensee shall produce and show an article thus listed and described which is in the licensee's possession.


� 4728.07 Daily report to police department.

Each person licensed under Chapter 4728. of the Revised Code, shall, every business day, make available to the chief or the head of the local police department, on forms furnished by the police department, a description of all articles received by the licensee on the business day immediately preceding, together with the number of the receipt issued."

Then the code lists some exemptions as follows:


"� 4728.11 Exemptions

This chapter does not apply to any of the following:

(A)Any purchase of an article that is made of or contains gold, silver, platinum, or other precious metals or jewels of any description if both the buyer and seller, or the respective agents, brokers, or other intermediaries of both the buyer and seller, deal in such articles or otherwise by their respective occupations, or by their respective avocations as collectors, speculators, or investors, hold themselves out as having knowledge or skill peculiar to such articles or the practices involved in their purchase or sale;

(E)(Deals with silveware dealers. exemtion "F" is the noteworthy one.))

(F)Any purchase of coins, hallmark bars, registered ingots, and other items as numismatic objects, and not for their content of precious metals."

Apparently, transactions between dealers are exempt but not between individuals. And certainly a case could be made with reference to the "skill" level. Hm-m-m-m!

And it appears that numismatic transactions are exempted. But wait! They then close these loop holes by citing what the exempt person must do.

"� 4728.12 Duties of person exempt from licensing

A person exempt from licensing under division (E) or (F) of section 4728.11 of the Revised Code, and who in the ordinary course of the person's business obtains ownership by purchase of articles made of or containing gold, silver, platinum, or other precious metals or jewels of any description from the public, shall maintain at each business location for at least the twelve months immediately succeeding any such transaction a record that shall include the following:

(1) The date and time of the transaction;

(2) The name and residential address of the seller and the means of identification used to establish the seller's identity;

(3) A physical description of the seller;

(4) A complete and accurate description of the article, including any brand names, initials, serial numbers, or other identifying marks, monograms, or symbols on the article;

(5) The price paid for each article and the means of payment.

(C) Within sixty days after opening a new business location, any person exempt from licensing under division (E) or (F) of section 4728.11 of the Revised Code shall notify in writing the chief or head of the police department having local jurisdiction in the place where the business is located of the location of the records the person maintains pursuant to division (A) of this section. These records shall be available during normal business hours for inspection by the superintendent of financial institutions or the superintendent's designee, or by the chief or head of the local police department or the chief's or head's designee."

Some key verbage are the words "from the public". A case could be made for private transactions which, I believe, would be exempt. But that could probably end up in court.

All this appears to be done under the cloak of protecting the buyer from stolen property. However, to me, this is nothing more than a ploy by Big Brother to document who has the metal. Anyone want to buy precious metals from Ohio? Then again, I wonder what your state has on the law books.

Also, it's interesting that there is no requirement to allow the Sheriff, as in a Constitutional entity, access to the records. Hm-m-m-m again. Does this say that they, the statutes, recognize that the Constitution protects "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects..."


Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 15:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108276)
Ezra Pound was right !
http://65.40.245.240/italy/lire-1e.htm4) Credit value and monetary value: distinguishing characteristics

It is now time to clear up the misunderstanding caused by, erroneously, equating monetary value with credit value. In order to understand the great difference between money and credit, it is sufficient to consider the following points:
a) Credit is extinguished by a payment; money continues to circulate, after every transaction, because it is an item of continuous utility, like every unit of measure.

b) Credit value is exposed to the risk of non-fulfilment; the monetary value is real, and certain, because, due to legal induction, money is a real good and, moreover, an item of continuous utility.
c) In the case of credit, the normative precept is required first and is followed by its manifestation. In the case of money, the formal manifestation of monetary symbols is first created and these symbols are, then, given value, during the act of issue. The one, who gives money its value, is not the one who issues it, but the one who accepts it. In the case of physical induction, electric energy is generated by the rotation of the dynamo's components. Similarily, in the case of legal induction, monetary value is created during the act of issue, that is to say at the dynamic moment, when it enters circulation among the members of the community, who give it conventional value, by accepting it. The issue of symbols in the form of legal tender is an act of "heteronomy"; the acceptance of money, which conventionally determines the value, is an act of "autonomy". To say that the value of money is not created, by the one who accepts it, but by the one, who issues the symbols, is like saying that electrical energy is created, not by the person, who causes the dynamo to rotate, but by the person who manufactures it.

The usurocratic hegemony of the banking system is based on this misunderstanding.

d) Credit value is caused by the promise of the debtor, as in the case of a bill of exchange, where the issuer is the debtor. Monetary value is caused by the acceptance, of the first person to accept it. Nowadays, money is issued as if it were a spurious bill of exchange, because the governor of the central bank, signing, as if he was the debtor, makes the people believe, incorrectly, that he is the one who creates monetary value.

e) The theories, which claim to explain money as an instrument of credit, representing the available goods on the market, are also incorrect in their attempts to give money a unilateral purchasing power (in this connection, we recall Nixon's statement at Camp David on 15 August 1971 which abolished the dollar's convertibility in gold and revoked the Bretton Woods agreement). Like every other unit of measure, money has only got utility, if there are objects to measure. If there were no objects to measure in length, a metre would be as useless, as money would be, if there were no objects whose value could be measured. But this does not mean that a unit of measure represents the measured objects.

The definitive proof of the insufficiency of this thesis is that, while the bearer of a certificate of credit can ask for the object of credit, by presenting the document, the bearer of money can only propose the purchase of goods, to the owner (or accept the owner's proposal), offering money as a real good and object of exchange. Futhermore, as we have shown above a "title of credit" is extinguished by the payment, whereas money continues to circulate, after every transaction, because like every unit of measure, it is an item of continuous utility.

f) We may conclude that induced value differs from credit value because of the different legal circumstances. Credit arises from the relationship (whether negotiable or not) between creditor and debtor, whereas induced value is caused, exclusively, by the convention which binds the national community, in acceptance of their money. This, also, explains, why monetary units are characterized by nationality.

This should answer the dollar/oil/gold connection!
Gonlyold
(09/07/2003; 15:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108277)
OPPS!
I mentioned that the Sheriff s a Constitutional entity. This can be debated. However, he is an elected entity while the police are not. Without getting into that debate, perhaps I should have just pointed out that the U.S. Constitution protects the people rights.
Belgian
(09/07/2003; 16:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108278)
Re:
Druid : Know what you were talking about... I lost my 6 lavendel plants when dad was taking over when on holidays.

Melting Pot : Keep on posting Sir ! Much appreciated.
Have no comments to add.
Watched another long interview, tonight, with Kohnstamm (Netherlands), the spiritual son of an Euroland founding father, Monnet (France). Main topic was the EU/USUK rift and how this might evolve. The nearby future depends on the neocon-thing in the US and the EU's capability to unite politically . Kohnstamm fears a possible WW-III if the US continues on the Hobbes philosophical line ! The Privatization of power is in sharp contrast with the philosophy of postwar Euroland. It always was the idea of the state's souverainity that caused wars. This is something that the US still has to find out.

Old Europ has the advantage of having so much to look backwards at and master this enormous amount of experiences into something much better and attractive, worldwide. This applies, not the least, to the european single currency (euro), much more advanced (modern) in concept than the old and unworkable dollar-standard !

Under the present Anglo-American supremacy, terror will almost certainly increase as it is the poor/weak man's tool for war in a world that is technically interconnected but politically, rapidly and widely diverging.

More Britisch troops heading to Iraq...for the protection of the oil pipelines !!! Thanks Tony.
Nobody bothers what ordinary Iraqis in Iraq do think about this.

All this events are of a nature that are "isolating" the USUK, increasingly. Such a process of isolation is frightening in a global village context AND ADDING TO THE EXHAUSTION OF THE DOLLAR.

Latest opinion polls in UK resulted in 40% of the Brits wanting Tony to pack and go, now . Wonder if this score will come down after today's London terror-attack excercises ?

Good night from Euroland.
Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 16:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108279)
Gonlyold: Constitutional Limitations on GOVERNMENT
http://www.archives.gov/exhibit_hall/charters_of_freedom/declaration/declaration_transcription.htmlWith all due respect, the constitution[s] are limits on the powers of government and government administrators, not limits upon the states or the people. This is self evident as the "sovereign" Citizen does not swear oath to defend and OBEY constitution and it's limitations.

Who are "We the People"

Preamble

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, provide for the common defense, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. --The Constitution of the United States of America

We the People are the elected and those sworn to uphold the constitution[s], We the people is not the common Citizen.

Can the common Citizen:

1) form a more perfect union
2) establish justice
3) insure domestic tranquility
4) provide for the common defense
5) provide for the common defense
6) secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity

The answer is NO. These functions are reserved for the body politic and governing.

Does or did the Common Citizen ordain and/or establish the Constitution by sworn oath? No,,,,not usually unless he enters military or government service.

Again the constitution does not limit the written and unwritten rights of the Citizen, it limits the powers and authority of rulership over the sovereigns.

The government wants you to believe your rights are derived from constitution aka government authority, when in fact they are not, you rights are derived from the creator not government. You are the sovereign and government is SUPPOSED to serve the people, not the people serving government!

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that "AMONG" these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their "JUST" powers from the "CONSENT" of the governed."--IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776, The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, The Declaration of Independence: A Transcription (emphasis added)

To bad the governed have lost this concept and submitted to the usurpations of the unconstitutional governing!

The Truth About The Confederacy
Parents - Teach Your Kids The Truth
By Charley Reese
9-7-3

SNIPS:

Many people today seem to think that the federal government created the states when it was the reverse. The states created the federal government as a stronger form of confederation by delegating certain of their powers to it. Thus, the purpose of the Constitution of 1787, like the Articles of Confederation, was to create a voluntary union to accomplish specific purposes, mainly to ensure a domestic free market, to provide for the common defense of the states and to deal with foreign countries with one voice.

But what is relevant for us today is that the people in the American Republic (1787-1860) understand that the powers of the federal government were strictly limited to those spelled out in the Constitution and that the Constitution would be interpreted literally and narrowly. And, most important, that the states themselves would be the final judge of the federal government's actions.

Comment
Steve Mungie
A native American Indian
9-7-3

When, if ever, can we convince our brethern of color, the truth about what the Confederacy was reallyabout? It was not about color ... it was not about racism ... is was not about slavery. In fact, if you can find older existing history books, you will discover that slavery was being phased out of existance years before the Civil War ever began! And worse, slavery in the North existed long after the Civil War ended.

The whole fight was simply and totally over States' rights, as is clearly laid out in the 9th and the 10th Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

http://www.rense.com/general41/truthab.htm

Below is Article I Section 9 Paragraph 1 and 2 of the the Constitution of the Confederate States of America:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/csa/csa.htm

Sec. 9. (I) The importation of negroes of the African race from any foreign country other than the slaveholding States or Territories of the United States of America, is hereby forbidden; and Congress is required to pass such laws as shall effectually prevent the same.

(2) Congress shall also have power to prohibit the introduction of slaves from any State not a member of, or Territory not belonging to, this Confederacy.

This meant that slavery could not continue through the existing generation. Remember, at that time slaves were private property and the Confederacy would not seize property without due process.

How so very different from the government we have today!
Cometose
(09/07/2003; 16:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108280)
SEPT 5 article from Metropole Cafe
There is an interesting article from METROPOLE CAFE / there was mention somewhere also that Morgan Stanley advised to get out of the Stock Market(below) and went long GOLD Friday .....hmmmmmm!!!!!

FIrst time I've successfully pasted something ...never knew I could/ forgive me if this has already been posted

Snippit:
"Great article from LeMetropole Cafe
Quite a day and one which made a number of things clear. Gold was once again bashed in London and was due to come in $2 lower in New York. It came in firmer than that and then ran when this news hit:

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 93,000 jobs in August, the most since March, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent as more discouraged workers dropped out of the labor force, government figures showed.
Payrolls fell after a revised 49,000 drop in July, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate fell from 6.2 percent in July and 6.4 percent in June, the highest since 1994. �END-

The jobs picture in the US is worsening, not improving, even after all the 13 Fed interest rate cuts, tax cuts and government stimulus. Simultaneously, the Iraq quagmire is accelerating as US expenses mount.

When job numbers were announced, the dollar swooned and S&P futures sold off mildly. Gold reacted very swiftly and went up a few dollars on the day. Comments then surfaced from THREE different quarters that central/bullion banks were capping the rally. It is nauseating how Groundhog Day won't go away. The movie was funny. This is an outrage.

Gold calmed down and got very quiet, holding $2+ gains. When the stock market began to weaken late in the Comex session, gold burst $5 higher out of nowhere, taking out stops, and rallied up to $379.50. Once again, cabal forces regrouped and instituted their $6 rule. How many times has MIDAS brought the $6 rule to your attention over the years? I have lost count.

Even as the desperate Gold Cartel gradually loses their war, they continue to fight one losing battle after another. This is exactly why I have ranted for so long that the gold price would never soar to where it should be until these low-life bums are carried out on a stretcher. Yes, the GATA stretcher-bearers are standing by.

It is GATA griping these days. When the stock market really falls apart and US investors lose a good deal of their money again, there will be outcries asking how it could have all happened. One need only go to Wall Street, various banks, the US political leaders and the US financial press. Together, they have facilitated a monstrosity.

Back to the gold action. One of the Gold Cartel rats may be leaving the ship. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley (as a firm) advised all their branch offices to get out of the stock market. Today, when the stock market made new lows, it was Morgan Stanley's enormous buying which took gold up through the day's highs. My take is MS sees the handwriting on the wall. The financial market managing by the Fed, ESF, bullion dealers in the cabal, and various other Wall Street houses is about to blow up. Morgan Stanley is running for the hills while they can. They know what can happen to the price of gold because they have been part of the rigging process for so long.

Another Ground Hogger: once again we see gold moving higher first, which leads to a dollar move lower. That said, we can see how frightened The Gold Cartel is of gold taking out the $370+ area. The dollar fell 1.14 to 97.13 and the euro rose 1.75 to 110.97, yet gold was only allowed to rally $4.70. Over a two-day period the dollar has dropped 1 � points with gold only allowed to rise $3.80. Obviously, the crooked ones are hoping they catch a break early next week to do what they can to take gold down again.

John Brimelow tells me the volume on Comex was 19,000 contracts the last half-hour, or 1/3 of what it was for the entire session. That will give you some idea what kind of Gold Cartel firepower it took to keep gold from taking out the $378/$380 area. What a bunch of desperados!

The dollar completely broke down technically:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/93

Gold closed in new high ground, flying out of a small flag formation:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

The gold open interest fell a miniscule 7 contracts. There was no shakeout on the setback.

Yesterday, I mentioned how gold sells-off the day after The Gold Cartel knocks gold down purposely and noticeably on the close. It always comes in lower the next day and stays lower. However, the day after that, gold has continually risen and usually quite strongly, mostly after another lower opening. Happened again today. This is important to keep track of because it shows a pattern of strong hand buyers laying in wait for the predictable Gold Cartel. This powerful buying group knows exactly what they are doing.

The gold trading action over the last many weeks suggests the info I received about a $4.6 billion buy order is right on the money. These big buyers are toying with the cabal, buying as much gold as they can on breaks and keeping the futures market from liquidating. When they are ready, they will pull the plug and jerk the futures market through the roof. It will cause our long awaited Commercial Signal Failure and cause some major shorts to cover out of necessity.

Perhaps we will get our long awaited breakaway gap opening on Monday. It's long overdue.

Silver bolted sharply higher and then was held in check the rest of the session. When the price managers lose control of silver, it is going to blow sky high. I am still looking for a $1 move up in one Comex trading session alone.

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

One of my reflections last night was on the Bernanke comments reported yesterday:

"The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep interest rates low even during a robust recovery because deflation remains the main risk to the economy, Federal Reserve Gov. Ben Bernanke said Thursday."

What could be more gold friendly and dollar bearish than a Fed announcing it is going to keep our short rates low regardless of how our economy is pumping along? To me it shouts, "BUY GOLD!"

"



Cavan Man
(09/07/2003; 17:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108281)
Cometose
That's Murphy
Gonlyold
(09/07/2003; 17:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108282)
Ref: Documenting Gold Transactions; Melting Pot
Melting Pot, with reference to your statement that the Constitution places, "limits on the powers of government and government administrators, not limits upon the states or the people.", you are absolutely correct. I stand corrected on this detail. And to be more specific, some people draw a distinction between the Constitution and the Bill of Rights: the Constitution being a business plan for our form of government while the Bill of Rights does the actual limiting of the power of government.

It would be noteworthy for those supporting the Euro and EU that to realize that the EU does NOT have such government limiting Bills of Rights. In the EU, the leaders are kings and you shall do the bidding of those kings. So when you see the dollar falling, just think of what is being said. If the world is dumping dollars and buying euros and looking at the US as "going down", then so too are the last vestages of the world's freedom. I think Belgian once asked for a reason to support the dollar. This may be THE reason as far as the US is concerned.
Melting Pot
(09/07/2003; 17:45:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108283)
No Hope for Mankind until Honest Money System and Freedom Reigns
http://65.40.245.240/italy/lire-1e.htm5) The great usury

After proving that money is, simultaneously, a measure of value, and the value of the measure, it is, unquestionably, true that the monetary mass constitutes a mirror-like duplicate of the value of real goods, measured, or measurable, in terms of their value. This duplicate value can have the positive sign of an asset (and in this case, it doubles the people's wealth), or the negative sign of a debt (in which case it creates a desperate and agonising situation because of inevitable insolvency).

When money was made from gold, the bearer was, also, the owner. Since the advent of "nominal money", he has, without realising it, become a debtor. All "nominal money" is issued by the banks, in the form of loans. Thus, all money in circulation is burdened, with debt, to the central banks. Therefore, if someone wants to pay off a debt of money, with money, it would be the same as paying a debt, with another debt. IT CANNOT BE DONE. In the long run, he is forced to pay with his own capital and with the produce of his labour.

With the discovery of induced value as a legal value, it is not only proven that money must be considered, as the property of the national community, but, also, that, currently, the central bank, by loaning out, what is in fact due, imposes a cost of 200% on money, at the act of issue: the initial 100%, because it expropriates the community of the induced value (only an owner can lend money), and a further 100% by forcing the national community into debt, to the same extent.

Furthermore, it is also evident that banks, and other credit institutions, "create" money, in a surreptitious way. Applying the principle of so-called credit multiplication, they lend money in an increased proportion, to the sums, which have been deposited with them. For example, they lend 100% with a 20% monetary liquidity reserve. All this can be done, because a great part of the lent money is deposited in a bank, again, so that a reserve of 20% is, usually, sufficient to satisfy a request for money. Hence, it is evident that a bank can lend money, which it does not have, to an amount of 80% of the loan. Consequently, this difference of 80% is, in fact, induced value (not credit value), which should be represented by legal-tender, paper money, not by instruments of credit. Properly considered, its ownership should be attributed to the community (not to the banks), who could then deposit it in a bank, as creditors and not as debtors.

This principle of credit multiplication expropriates the people, and causes debts, to the extent of the induced value as explained above, thus, it results in "debt multiplication", which was a consequence, and a corollary, of the scheme developed by Paterson, in 1694, for the Bank of England, founded with the aim of making loans, using the "notes of the bank" (i.e. bills of exchange) in place of money (gold). These bank-notes were "nominal money" and, also, "debt-money".

As a result of these practices, the people of the world have been dispossessed of their own money, forced into debt, without receiving anything in return.

Only in the light of the preceding considerations does it become possible to formulate a correct interpretation of the modern age.

6) Organic society and instrumental subjectivities

The advent of the constitutional state was not merely a simple, political choice, but also an historical one. The proliferation of "legal phantoms" (so-called "instrumental subjectivities") has taken the place of the old, catholic monarchies of the Old Europe, the last descendants of the Holy Roman Empire. Thus, the possibility to plan and change ethical parameters has also been created.

The concept of society was considered, as a concept without a human content, i.e. an "instrument", so that making use of it, and not "serving it", was the only possibility. We can only make use of an instrument: it is ridiculous to serve an instrument. In this way, a concept of ethics, driven by economic considerations, developed. The principle, "that which is right (just) is advantageous", was replaced by the new principle, "that which is advantageous is right".

The concept of a society, which exploits the instrumental subjectivities, has taken the place of a society, based on natural law, i.e. people united by an organic relationship. In this way, national communities have become the "exploited society" and humanity has entered an age of decadence.

"Debt-money" is the instrument, which the "exploiters" have used, in order to become the real puppet-masters of history.

With this new monetary system, the central bank can, at any time, lay claim to as much money, as it requires in "repayment", because all money has been issued by the bank, in the form of of loans. Since the bank exercises control over the political authority, or at least the Treasury and ,hence, budgetary and fiscal matters, it can, at any time, retire all the money it desires from the market, by means of fiscal levies (taxation) or interest rates.

The people have really and truly become cows to be milked. This was the aim of the French Revolution, which was, strategically, planned by the Bank of England. By substituing debt-money (the bank-note), for asset-money (money as property, i.e. gold), the system of the central banks has taken possession of, almost, double the circulating money of all the world, because it has disposessed and indebted the people, without giving anything in return.

By manipulating the conditioned reflex, of habitually giving an equivalent to get money, the central banks have forced all the people, of the world, to accept, at the moment of issue, monetary symbols of negligible cost, as the equivalent of a debt. But this is an unfair exchange, because the debt is not proportionate to the cost of the symbols (as it should have been), but rather to the induced value of the money (which is not produced by the bank of issue, but by social convention).

It is as if someone lending empty fish-baskets to fishermen, thereby, forced them into debt, not only for fish-baskets, but also for fish.
Cavan Man
(09/07/2003; 18:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108284)
Bond market losses continuing tomorrow.......
But hey, we're talking ideology (NOT JUSTICE)washingtonpost.com
Bush Vows to Spend What Is Necessary to Win War

Reuters
Sunday, September 7, 2003; 6:17 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will say in a speech to the nation on Sunday night that crushing a guerrilla campaign in Iraq will take time and require sacrifices, and he will vow to spend whatever is necessary for victory.

According to speech excerpts released by the White House, Bush also will say members of the United Nations "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility, to assume a broader role in assuring that Iraq becomes a free and democratic nation."


CM comment: There's a teriffic book by Barbara Tuchman; "The March of Folly". Here in the US, we are writing Another chapter. As a minor note of interest, I might add that this part of the world has NO history of democracy; especially the variety imposed by occupation. Sorry to state the obvious.

I suppose the underlying agenda is to absolutely and unconditiopnally FLOOD THE WORLD with USD. Talk about a global currency; we are!

THIS IS ALL VERY POSITIVE (UNFORTUNATELY) FOR GOLD AND HER SHARES.
misetich
(09/07/2003; 18:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108285)
Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085Snip:

Economists fear that Asian investors, who are the largest foreign owners of US Treasuries, may cut their holdings of US government debt, withdrawing a key source of financing for America's large current account deficit.


The worries have been fuelled by recent sharp falls in the price of US government debt.
............
He said there had already been a "noticeable shift" downwards in the amount of debt issued by mortgage financiers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae being bought by foreign investors.
...........
*********
Misetich

When it rains it pours! and lets not forget the edict issued by EU to its members to dump GSE's debt -

The argument put forth by the "who me worry" its your problem and not Americas is going to be testd sooner than many expect, as the risks are rising for all US $ investment holders as the effects of a stock market bubble bust are still ongoing

...forcing US Treasury and CB in taking unprecendent and unchared steps with little success todate. As a matter of fact all actions taken thus far has only post-poned the inevitable

Easy Al money creation machine has kept the game going through the refinancing scam, which in turn fuelled a housing and bond bubble

..with GSE's needing debt market, US Treasury needing debt market to fund its ever growing deficit

" Who Me Worry" ? - should think again!

Yes you should worry and add some insurance to your soon to be US $ investment vanishing portfolio

BUY PHYSICAL GOLD ! and who better to service your needs than the good our gracious host USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc

All On Board The Gold Bull Express













silvercollector
(09/07/2003; 18:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108286)
Belgium
My confusion was only the statement, "...US wants oil priced higher...". How does higher priced oil keep "the dollar-system working"?

From your next thought, "..orderly/peaceful rebuilding of Iraq AND a definitive solution for the Israeli/Palestinian question." Regarding your next question, "Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be ?" Exactly the theme of my rant. IMHO the complete (and final) breakdown of negotiations in January and Febuary (pre-war) is the last straw, the end of the road. The US and France will never agree to anything ever again, NEVER. The US boycotted french wine and renamed 'french fries' to 'freedom fries'. Do you believe that? I wonder what stunt the French pulled??

"Can you imagine how difficult these negociations (if any) must be?" Did you catch Mr. Bush tonight? Here is a beauty, (the United Nations) "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility, to assume a broader role in assuring that Iraq becomes a free and democratic nation."

Mr. Bush blew up and burnt a country and after 6 months we (the world) still await his reasoning. Apparently, the UN "now have an opportunity, and the responsibility.." to clean up his world size path of destruction.

Let's back up one square. The US said last week that they needed help but WOULD REMAIN AS THE LEAD PLAYER. F,G,R & C have said in the last couple days that the UN would help if THE UN WOULD BE THE LEAD PLAYER. It's the NO WAR, YES WAR augument again. This will end bad.

Note that FGRC (France, Germany, Russia & China)have said the UN would ................. FGRC is the UN!!!!! The US in not the UN. This thing is growing into the UN (the world) aginst the US.

Bush doesn't get it.
a nation of one
(09/07/2003; 19:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108287)
Re: Mr. Ron Paul's piece

He says: "If honest money and freedom are inseparable, as Mr. Greenspan argued, and paper money leads to tyranny, one must wonder why it's so popular with economists, the business community, bankers, and our government officials. The simplest explanation is that it's a human trait to always seek the comforts of wealth with the least amount of effort. This desire is quite positive when it inspires hard work and innovation in a capitalist society. Productivity is improved and the standard of living goes up for everyone. This process has permitted the poorest in today's capitalist countries to enjoy luxuries never available to the royalty of old."

He is wrong about this. It is not a human trait. It may be a widespread preference among many people, but not all. Therefore, it is not a human trait, merely a widespread preference. Others place means before ends, and, to them, what is important is not the ease with which the comfort of wealth may be acquired, but other criteria, such as -but not limited to this- the type of effort made, or, with some, the degree of legality or morality complied with, or, the quality of compassion to others that the activity provides to humanity generally, or, numerous other value systems, as subjectively perceived by the human individuals involved. I think the real answer to the first sentence in the above paragraph of his comments is that there is more wealth to be made in the destruction of a civilization than in the building up of one, and that Mr. Greenspan realizes this on some level, and so do others, and that that is the underlying intention. There are other reasons too. But this is the central one, as I see it.
Cavan Man
(09/07/2003; 19:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108288)
You know what's always in the details
Bye, bye USTWashingtonpost.com
Bush Will Seek $87 Billion for Iraq

Reuters
Sunday, September 7, 2003; 7:48 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will announce on Sunday night that he plans to ask Congress for $87 billion to fund the U.S. military deployment in Iraq and pay for reconstruction, a Republican source said.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the money would fund U.S. military operations in Iraq and reconstruction over the coming budget year.

Ten Bears
(09/07/2003; 20:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108289)
Melting Pot


I enjoyed your week-end posts. Thanks.

I seem to recall reading that Ezra Pound's father worked for Alexander Del Mar (when Del Mar was the U.S. Chief Statistician). Del Mar's books appear to be the philosophical basis for Pounds� economic views. Pound sponsored the later research of Eustace Mullins on the Federal Reserve. Later works, including "Secrets of the Federal Reserve" by William Greider, appear to have used Mullins� work without giving him credit (probably due to the extreme unpopularity of Mullins in certain circles). I appreciate your reference to Steve Mungie. Those of us who are descendents of the original Americans and European settlers often have a multi-faceted view of American history and economics.

Gonlyold
(09/07/2003; 20:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108290)
Shift in World Power To Those Who Have The Gold - Not Going To Happen
This is my opinion. I've always meant to research this but never did. So I'll just put it out there and let you correct me and advise me on my areas of deficiency.

The existing world powers, US, England, France, Russia, China, The Middle East (as a whole) are presently in that position due to many reasons EXCEPT that of being a predominant gold producing nation. (This comment will most likely receive a lot critism, but I will let it stand for now.) Other countries such as Peru, Columbia, Venezeula, and the northern part of Brazil are presently lower on the list of world power and appear to be renown for their drug trade and a little oil.

However, I have always thought that these northern South American countries have vast unexplored and un-advertised gold deposits. Afterall, where did those Inca's get all that gold? I am convinced that there is more in those jungles besides trees. And I am also convinced that if anyone already knows about this, they haven't published it. I believe there are gold deposits of such magnitude (and oil beyond belief), that should they be explored and mined, they would surpass the gold production of the present world powers. Vast enough that should gold ever increase in price, to the extent that exploration in these jungles becomes lucrative, that the heretofore hidden gold "reserves" would cause these South American countries to become the dominate power countries.

I don't think the present powers that be would be too receptive of that shift in powers. They presently control through fiat money (and oil) and I believe will endeavor to maintain that control. And, as a safeguard, they must not let gold become the world's store of value.

Anyway, just my thoughts.
a nation of one
(09/07/2003; 20:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108291)
To Melting Pot
"Money is a symbol system for exchanging real things by proxy."

It is that, but that's not all it is. For it can also be used for exchanging unreal things. Also, it can be used for exchanging itself, which, technically, is not a proxy transaction.

Great Albino Bat
(09/07/2003; 20:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108292)
Ten bears: about Alexander Del Mar

I am glad you mentioned Alexander Del Mar, who was publishing his books just about 100 years ago.

His books are quite interesting; he started out as a mining engineer, then became interested in the history of gold and silver mining. From there, he went on to a study of the history of money. In studying the history of money, he came across some inexplicable anomalies in the dates of coins, which did not agree with official historical dates for certain events.

From this, he went on to conclude that Augustus Caesar ordered his officials to manipulate the data of Roman History, bringing forward some 83 years (as I recall) the date of foundation of Rome. To do this, the officials changed the history of the Olympic Games, saying that they had been celebrated every four years, instead of very five, as was the fact.

Augustus' interest in modifying Roman dates, was in order to deify himself, for which purpose, it was necessary to be born on the auspicious date, as established by traditions going back to India. All very interesting and complicated.

Then, also, some centuries after the birth of Christ, some priests in Constantinople also fiddled with the calendar, and shaved off (or was it added?) 15 years, thus bringing the difference between our dates and the real date of the foundation of Rome, to 68 years. The reason the priests did this, was to separate the date of Augustus' Apotheosis, from the birth of Christ. The two dates coincided, apparently, and this was not desireable.

Anyway, I often reflect on Del Mar as a very poor economist, because he was extremely anti-gold and anti-silver. He claimed a paper system, run by the government, had to be the best system. I often think that were he able to see where paper leads, he would turn over in his grave. Big, big error on his part!

He was a conceited man, no amount of reasoning would have brought him around. There are people like that.

The GAB

Ulysses
(09/07/2003; 21:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108293)
Gold and currencies
If gold is so necessary to a currencies worth, how can Canada's be worth anything when they have no gold in their CB's vault?
Cometose
(09/07/2003; 21:34:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108294)
Gonlyold Re: Power behind GOLD
I believe that what you are referring to .....was aptly addressed by BELGIAN yesterday.....

He commented that the U S DOllar's strength was now derived by its attachment to something of value OIL.......the dollar's the reserve currency of the world and must be utilized to purchase OIL by every country on the GLOBE....

Funny how there's a sea of oil under the surface of two countries named in the axis of evil......IRAQ and IRAN ...
and Iraq has been labeled TERRORIST ....and perhaps she is .. HOWEVER the manner and method by which the Banking establishement connected to the Federal Reserve has and is controlling much of the WORLDS Global economy may be weakening with the percieved weakness of the Dollar....
if this does not reverse itself....THE STATUS QUO may be threatened enough to do something stupid....to maintain thier base of operations........WORLD WAR THREE anyone?...
THings have changed so fast in the past two years , it's scary ; so fast in fact that the dumb sheeple who just believe what the talking heads say at face value on current affairs ..just don't have a chance to keep up and check the congress on following blindly whatever policy the administration wants to push .......if you don't think that there are more suprises right around the corner , I'm afraid you may be in for a shock....
Black Blade
(09/07/2003; 21:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108295)
Confusion Over Rising Precious Metals Prices and the Comex


I have been rather busy lately and am trying to catch up on all the interesting discussion here on the forum while I have a bit of free time. What I have found most interesting is how so many gold analysts have got the whole reasoning behind the rising gold price all-wrong. Most seem to think that because of the huge open interest that the price of gold must pull back. Some suggest that the price will collapse dramatically as Funds and speculators bail out en masse to take profits. Yet they simply ignore the fact that the "competitive currency devaluation" aka "Currency War" has diminished the value of all major currencies. Where gold and silver are not easily manipulated in the sense that some government can magically "print gold".

The US dollar is in a state of collapse as the Fed attempts to reinflate at a furious pace without any success. The problem of course is that every other country is essentially doing the same. Quite strange that everyone wants a weak currency. Compare that to gold and silver. How in the world do you make weak gold and silver? In this environment it is easy to see how precious metals are holding up so well against a world flooded with paper (or digital) currency. Precious metals are produced with blood, sweat, and even risk of life and limb.

For the US dollar there is no way it can gain in value anymore. We have passed the point of no return. The national debt has soared beyond $44 trillion (official and "off the books"). The US budget deficit reaches new records second by second. Note that there never was a budget surplus even as the Clinton-Rubin admirers touted the lie of a "budget surplus" in recent years. Actually the last time there was a budget surplus was during the Eisenhower administration. The current account and trade imbalances are so great that there is simply no possible way to recover out of this mess. The only door left open to the Fed is to inflate like there's no tomorrow in an effort to stimulate the economy. At some point inflation (even bogus "official" inflation as defined by the morons working for the BLS) will become all too evident. In the end all that will result will be high inflation in a no or slow growth economy � that is "stagflation" or worse.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary John Snow crawled on his hands and knees before the Japanese and Chinese this last week begging for some relief. They simply told him to "beat his feet" back home. Nothing was accomplished by his groveling of course as they hold all the cards. In short his pathetic performance was nothing short of an embarrassment for the United States. Mr. Snow's mission was an utter failure. The world is watching and what they see is what the Asians call a very desperate maneuver by a "Paper Tiger".

Open interest is not all that important anymore. With gold priced in US dollars it is no wonder that the "smart money" has turned away from currency and toward hard assets like precious metals that have intrinsic value. It should come as no surprise that high net worth individuals including George Soros, Warren Buffett, and Bill Gates are investing in precious metals. When the dollar becomes less desirable gold becomes more valuable even when it is priced higher in dollar terms. So when these alleged gold analysts focus on the size of the Comex contracts the miss the big picture entirely. That's not to say that the Comex managers (and the Tocom as well) will once again change the rules to cheat investors as they have in the past. These are men without honor and will do what they can to cheat the investor. In the end any pull back in the price of gold and silver (and we can include platinum as well) should be considered a gift � a bargain subsidized to our benefit as buyers.

- Black Blade
Ten Bears
(09/07/2003; 21:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108296)
GAB
GAB, I enjoy reading your posts and thanks for the Del Mar Information.

I had not the opportunity to know Del Mar, therefore I cannot comment on his stubbornness or personal qualities. However the Del Mar which I have read provides a very thoroughly reviewed history of monetary systems. Recall one chapter in an 1896 publication with a chapter on "The Sacred Character of Gold". My memory of Del Mar is his opposition to the privately owned central banks and their control over governments. Perhaps best summed up by a quote from "The Science of Money" (1896). "Two centuries ago the money lending class was comparatively poor and humble� today, though numerically a limited class, they probably own more than half the garnered wealth of the civilized world; they drag the entire community by the heels, and their retainers fill every department of government, every avenue of profit, and every source of influence". I think, perhaps we have derived different messages from Del Mars� writing
mikal
(09/07/2003; 21:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108297)
@Usul
Re: "How can Canada's (currency) be worth anything when they hav no gold left in their vault." Maybe they're counting on deep storage type gold- in their case, below ground or the taxes to be imposed on it's withdrawal: capital gains taxes, windfall profits taxes and mining rights and permit fees?
I believe that as time passes, their currency will continue to appreciate against the dollar as it is doing now, or be revalued at par or at least well above it's current undervaluation, in a single stroke.
Canada's natural assets including unmined metals & minerals, water, lumber, farm commodities and natural resources can be developed, confiscated, traded, or used as collateral.
They have a good sovereign debt rating, a considered high standard of living and highly motivated workforce.
Among others, large populations of English, Italian, French, Scottish, Chinese, and Irish heritage help facilitate tourism, trade, cultural exchange and investment.
steady
(09/07/2003; 22:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108298)
honest money!
our mission cant be plainer our goal may take the toll on denail and delusion but your son will thank us. for what good is a man is his word isnt? honor , dignity, respect simple as that. a new fom of chivalry has awoke, the old form will be broke . the one it morphed into where up was down wrong was right,rule by might supperceed commonsense now alot of people are behind a fence.
here we make a stand one post at a time one thought one trasmission of an idea not an ideal but reality. digitally electonically u see one for you one for me this reality one in which markets will truely be free not just an illusion cooked up in a back room and brought forth for the masses to see. like perfomers at a circus. no there is more dignity here for us than that show, no cant u see the fans are alleady refusing to go. they peer dumbfounded,awestruck by the magnitude of the unknown complicity of the entire nation beyond belife astounded by the pounding there portfolio did take. so here we come united as one in common goal to share information to be analysed, synthasized, comprehended, and redesinimated for all to understand.come give us a hand, come avoid the economic geopolicital military toll help us reach our goal!

silver and gold
honest money for
honest people!

oh yea the consumer products keep endorsing gold.
today i saw a new toothpoaste aqua silver
a new golden cream, braun has a new golden coffe filter and a gold battery was at the checkout stand as well as a new golden cereal. that was alot of new golden items in the store today.
mikal
(09/07/2003; 22:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108299)
@Ulysses, Usul
My apologies! Last post was for Ulysses.
a nation of one
(09/07/2003; 22:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108300)
To Black Blade

Welcome back, Black Blade. You have been sorely missed.
steady
(09/07/2003; 22:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108301)
stuff
first of all for those of you who deal in cash you shold start to notice newer bills circulating as the fed dumps money into the system. these new dollars which are just begining to circulate will be noticed by those who deal in cash. pay attention and you will notice the ratio of new bills u recieve in change is increasing. watch it take place, we notice the trend on paper and theoretically but whatch it happen personally.


can we agree that there are hamonics and that another word for harmonics is harmony. the earth has its own harmonics as do people.
ever feel uneasy while driving in a city?missing this traffic light (red light stop) wondering fretting are we/am i going to make this light? maybe its not the surrondings. maybe , rather unbeknowst to you and many others its the trafficlights. see these artifical stopages of man in his travels upsets alot of peoples time and space. ( recall how u use time and space to view a chart as it goes thru well time and space) now we can also agree that people in all aspet of life get into a grooove a harmonic wave osscilating perfectly in relation to there own speed and time relative to the earth. but now here comes them dam pesky traffic lights delaying your time
of being at one place by 30 seconds (short light) to two min (long light) multiplied by how many lights u make or miss{rember to chill at lights and get back into the groove u need to be sometimes u have to force the groove to stay with you rather than u staying with the groove two entirly different ways of concentrating but both yielding the same affect upon your being!!!!this artifical disruption causes the subconscious uneasyness, whic manifests itself into consciusness in a variety of ways most exspressed unilateraly by the driver for now the flow has been lost, the groove ungrooved, one becomes like a stock price movement at the flux, no mans land. so this pentup digitalized (traffic lights controlled by automatic trip system) artifical intervention into the free flowing of individuals thru time and space in our get this ( personal digitized,trakable, traceable mobile unit of deficit our automobile,) and yes i understand john lock and mans social contract but it doesnt say that yileding to that social contract --agreeing to follow societys custom of stoping at red and going on green---- wont have an effect upon ones affect or your well being, disposition, and at times fate . as the effect is uneasyness for not being abel to find your groove , maybe thats one reason to explain all the crazy behavior so called normal individuals exhibit when they get behind the wheele
so how does one maintain an equilbrium when ones own inner self is constatly being put in a new time and space its hard to build the right type of personal graph to many gaps, peaks , vally, head fakes bullish/bearish penants and the likes. for the graph to build upon itself before it tumbles like a deck of cards with no sound base. and your id, ego, and super ego all take a hit as well. Forcing u to rethink your purpose, yor goals, your committments, your hopes, desirs, and dreams.
So some how i hope you can manage all the distractors and ignore the noise to keep your perfect three part harmony, in perfect time and pace with the real worlds golden .harmonics


this is almost an anology a simili for the gold market the digital intervention by certain groups has caused diseqelibrium in the finacial markets and peoples behavior is erratic due to it as no one is able to sort the chaff from the wheat as the military, conglomerate corporated dominated media pull out no stops to assit in this complicit act. and people look for direction, but the direction givers speak with forked tounge, so on and so forth ... i thinku get the drift
Waverider
(09/07/2003; 22:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108302)
Black Blade
Yahooo...welcome back! Hope all is going well for you in the field and maaaayyybeee....hopefully....we'll get the DMR this week? I echo ANOO - you've been sorely missed! All the best,
Waverider
Great Albino Bat
(09/07/2003; 23:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108303)
Ten bears: thanks for the Del Mar quote!

Thanks for mentioning Del Mar's "Science of Money". That's one of his books I have not read.

If I said he was a poor economist, it was because I got that clear impression from his words in another of his works, where he bad-mouthed gold and stated his opinion that money should rather be, what the State declares is money. Which is of course, what the world has today. "Fiat".

I'll examine the books I have and confirm this, in a future post. Or admit my mistake.

By the way, Del Mar aspired to be Secretary of the Treasury but was passed over.

The GAB
Caradoc
(09/08/2003; 01:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108304)
Merrill Lynch: "Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit"
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085Snippet:
Weakness in the US Treasury market could make Asian investors "less willing" buyers of debt securities, said Marcel Kasumovich, head of G10 foreign exchange strategy at Merrill Lynch.

Seems I heard about this here a long time before anybody heard it from Merrill Lynch...

Caradoc

PS: here's link again in case it's truncated above:
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479617509&p=1012571727085
DummyANI
(09/08/2003; 01:54:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108305)
Steelworks explosion may affect automakers
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htmsnip:
Steelworks explosion may affect automakers
Yomiuri Shimbun
The suspension of all operations at Nippon Steel Corp.'s Nagoya steelworks in Tokai, Aichi Prefecture, following a gas tank explosion Wednesday, could be a big blow to the motor industry, which depends on high-quality steel plates produced at the facility.
The steelworks produced about 5.58 million tons of crude steel last fiscal year, most of which went to car companies such as Toyota Motor Corp.
JFE Steel Corp. may soon temporarily take over from Nippon Steel in supplying these companies with steel plates. However, if the foundry ceases production for a week or more, analysts fear production at all domestic car companies will stagnate, which would affect the entire national economy.
The tank that exploded stored coke gas, which is created when coke is made from coal. If this tank cannot be used, it will be difficult to produce steel in furnaces.
To reduce costs, the steelworks had kept its inventory of steel plates as small as possible. Therefore, its current store of plates can supply Nippon Steel's clients for between a few days and a week.
Analysts said the situation has put car manufacturers in a serious dilemma, and they are indicating they may emulate Toyota's just-in-time system, in which the company only manufactures enough parts to meet its immediate needs.
Among car manufacturers that receive steel plates from the steelworks, Honda Motor Co.'s Suzuka plant in Mie Prefecture said it has enough supplies to last for nine more days, while officials at Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. plants said they only had enough inventory for a few more days of production.
Therefore, if operations at the steelworks remain suspended for a week or more, manufacturers' inventories may bottom out.
Car manufacturers are looking into measures they can take to prevent this from happening. Mitsubishi Motors said it is considering increasing its orders of steel plates from JFE Steel and Kobe Steel Ltd. Toyota said it has formed a task force to look into ways to procure steel plates from other sources.
JFE Steel indicated it was ready to provide emergency steel plates to the automakers. One JFE official said, "If we receive a request from Nippon Steel to do this, we'd like to do our best to supply the need."
However, as the demand for domestic steel has been increasing in China and among domestic appliance manufacturers, the nation's steel manufacturers are producing at full capacity, making it difficult for them to take on any new orders. Therefore, analysts said, it is hard to tell whether car manufacturers will be able to procure a large supply of steel plates from companies other than Nippon Steel.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry in July asked the Japan Iron and Steel Federation to thoroughly supervise the safety of their plants after 15 work-related deaths occurred at steelworks nationwide since the beginning of this year.
Analysts said that if officials were to use the Nagoya steelworks explosion to argue that safety measures at steelworks were dubious, it may take a long time for the facility to resume operations.
D-ANI: Japanese works have been melting down underwater.
TownCrier
(09/08/2003; 02:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108306)
Is there no more at stake than investors padding their purses in the event?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000173&sid=auecMAlQPiAg&refer=market_insightHEADLINE: Swedish Bond Investors May Miss Out on Euro Adoption Rally

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Many Swedish investors may miss out on a bond and krona rally next Monday should a late surge in support for the euro put Sweden a step further down the road to becoming the 13th member of Europe's currency union.

``The polls are tightening up and maybe it's happening a little too late for most investors,'' said Olof Carlsson, who helps oversee the equivalent of about $630 million in bonds at Danske Capital in Stockholm, a unit of Danske Bank A/S, Scandinavia's second-largest lender.

Six separate polls last week suggest a surge in support for the common currency, with the opponents' lead narrowing to as low as 5 percentage points from an average of 13 percentage points the week before.

``This is one these one-time events that are very hard to take a position on,'' said Erik Feldt, head of bonds at Nordea Investment Management in Stockholm, who manages the equivalent of $11 billion. ``You almost have to wait for the result.''

-------(article at url)------

If so, you wouldn't know it from Bloomberg.

R.
contrarian
(09/08/2003; 02:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108307)
Confusion Over Rising Precious Metals Prices and the Comex
Black Blade, thank you for your excellent post about whats really going on today with the the price of gold--it absolutely makes clear what the situation is.

It's always refreshing to read your intelligent, insightful posts--that present something of value to the reader--in contrast to some of the rambling, lengthy, incoherent postings I've noticed appearing on this forum recently that don't offer anything of value other than a sense of self-satisfaction to the writer.

The writers of these postings are fooling themselves if they think that visitors to the forum are reading these postings. For example, I read one sentence of these messages, and I move on to another message, because these postings are not worth my valuable time to read. All these messages do is clog up the page and make me hit the Scroll Down button more often.

This forum is a valuable and excellent resource, and you're a great contributor. As you would agree, we all need to maintain the quality of this excellent forum. There's plenty of other places to go to for confusion and ignorance in these trying times.
Operative
(09/08/2003; 03:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108308)
India Looks At Gold Reserves
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=41621Snip:

"
Mumbai, Sept 7: Even as the country's foreign exchange (forex) reserves are swelling, the share of gold in this basket has slipped below five per cent in 2003, from around 40 per cent in 1992. It was 5.5 per cent in 2002 down from 9.3 per cent in 1999, and 10.8 per cent in 1998.
The country's gold reserves, in terms of quantity, have remained static at around 360 tonne. At current rates, it is valued at $3,628 million.
As per latest available figures, the country's Forex reserves have swelled to $86.225 billion � a huge improvement from 1990-91 when the country's reserves were precariously low at around Rs 2,600.
It may be recalled that in July 1991 the country had to sell some 22 tonne of gold in addition to pledging some 46 tonne of gold outside India to salvage India's precarious position as a prospective defaulter in the international markets. Over the years, the Forex reserves have been rising, more so, over the past couple of years, but the share of gold in this has slipped down to 5.5 per cent even when the quantum of gold has remained static.
Sanjeev Agarwal, managing director-Indian subcontinent, World Gold Council (WGC), "Given the recent volatility in some major currencies and concerns over a possible further depreciation of the US dollar, an increase in the gold holdings will lend greater stability to our foreign exchange reserves."

spotlight
(09/08/2003; 03:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108309)
Contrarian post
You said:

Some of the rambling, lengthy, incoherent postings I've noticed appearing on this forum recently don't offer anything of value other than a sense of self-satisfaction to the writer.

The writers of these postings are fooling themselves if they think that visitors to the forum are reading these postings. For example, I read one sentence of these messages, and I move on to another message, because these postings are not worth my valuable time to read. All these messages do is clog up the page and make me hit the Scroll Down button more often.

I wish to be the first to stand with you on this. And I invite all other posters that agree, to second the motion to please ask posters to stay on topic and quit using this site as a bulletin board.
Operative
(09/08/2003; 03:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108310)
The Growing Case For Gold
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1427185-6094-0,00.htmlSnip:
"THE spot gold price neared highs not seen since February last week and analysts are predicting that the bullion price will hold on to most of the ground gained in the past few weeks as attitudes towards gold as an investment change.
Historically the gold price and the value of the dollar have worked against each other. When the dollar rises gold falls and vice versa.
But Ross Norman of thebullion.com, a web-based research company specialising in precious metals, said that in the past month the gold price had been bucking this trend.
"Gold has been ignoring the strengthening of the dollar and when it weakens (the dollar), it grasps it and runs up. There is still a lot of pent-up interest," said Norman. "It has been an anomalous month with the gold and dollar price running in the same direction".
He maintains that the gold market is showing a new discipline linked to the consolidation that has taken place in the industry over the past few years .
"Markets tend to move on expectation and there is an expectation that there will be greater supply side discipline in the more consolidated gold market," said Norman.
He said that in the past, goldprice rallies had often been killed by companies selling forward into the market, locking in at higher gold prices.
This development is positive for the gold market in the longer term and Norman says new investors are coming into the market, with gold adding diversity to their asset portfolios. "
Operative
(09/08/2003; 04:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108311)
Ponderings Over That First Cup of Coffee
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAPX7R8CKD.htmlThe headline to linked article reads: "Israel's Sharon Heads to India to Drum Up Trade and Bolster Defense Ties"

Pakistan and India have been at loggerheads with each other for some time. Some in the intelligence community suspect Bin Laden has been given refuge in Pakistan by the rather large radical muslims in that area. Now it appears Israel and India are cooperating on at least some weapons platforms that will furthur the rift between Pakistan and India. As tensions rise in the region, demand for gold should do well in that part of the world.
Operative
(09/08/2003; 04:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108312)
A Web Page For "Interesting Times"
http://www.cbsnews.com/digitaldan/disaster/disasters.shtmlA link that might prove useful for future events.
Belgian
(09/08/2003; 06:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108313)
@silvercollector
Your question on :...US wants POO higher...How does higher priced oil keeps the dollar system working...?

There is a floating "optimum" price for oil that suits the broadiest of oil-interests for producers, consumers AND the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Repeat : "optimum" floating price !

Dollar-reserves continiously increase due to the dollar-system. Those dollar-reserves must represent something tangible of fundamental value. One can buy oil and gold with it. The dollar's optimum value is then related to the optimum dollarprice of oil and gold. Very cheap oil AND gold qualify the dollar as very strong in purchasing power.

Then comes the question of "who" is setting the price of oil and gold and consequently putting a value on the dollar (reserve)?

Is the US still able to dominate the POO or does the printer of the dollar (controller of the dollar-system) gives priority to the exchange rate of the dollar ?
Yep, this is a complex thing.

At times when so much dollars need to be brought into the globe's dollar-system, a high/higher POO might be seen as a benevolent event to canalise all those dollars that are stashed up, everywhere. Since it is not the US' 20 million barrils of oil-imports that are the main reason for the twin deficits...a high/higher POO is not that very impacting, for the time being.

Add to the facts that the Iraqi occupation implicites that the world's second largest oil-reserves are coming under your (US) control...a sustained high POO adds to the collateral value. But note the following funny co-incidence : In 1971 POG=41$ and POO=3$ >>> both prices quote a x10 at today's prices (approx.) !?

As long as POG and POO remain within optimum ranges, the dollar-system keeps operating. Once we see one or both of these prices getting out of wack, we know that the dollar-system is defaulting.

Extreme low prices for Gold and/or Oil is provoking drastic measures. WAG or OPEC oil-flow cuts...There is/are floating optimum prices needed to support the existing dollar-system.
The Stranger
(09/08/2003; 06:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108314)
From the Current Issue of BARRON'S
http://www.barrons.com/Race to the Bottom

He Loves Gold � Gobs and Gobs of It
EDITED BY ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL




NEVER MIND THAT GOLD has risen nearly 20%, to $371 an ounce, in the past year.

As Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and President Bush no doubt discussed the economy over lunch last Tuesday, subscribers to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters were digesting his recent call to increase their asset allocation for gold and gold shares from 5%-10% to "at least one-third" of their liquid assets.

Although the publisher and editor of the market newsletter has been singing the praises of the yellow metal since the beginning of the year, his late August recommendation was noteworthy, in light of gold's already comfortable rise, and for the size of the allocation he suggested.

Investors should "sell whatever they have to" to buy gold and gold stocks, says Russell, although he didn't specify which stocks he liked in a recent interview. The analyst and onetime writer of technical articles for Barron's, who called the bottom of the '74 bear market, explains that "the U.S. is inflating its head off and depreciating the dollar's head off."

Meanwhile, "almost every Asian country wants a lower currency," and has been buying dollars to keep their currencies down and make their products more competitive. "Most of the world is now inflating," Russell says.

The U.S. is the world's biggest debtor, and we "can't afford all these military actions all over the world." Russell notes that the U.S. has a current-account balance of half a trillion dollars, and a budget deficit that's pushing half a trillion. "Here's a nation that's moving toward technical bankruptcy, issuing a currency that will be increasingly in question," Russell says. "If we were a corporation, we'd be bankrupt."

All of those factors, he says, argue for the price of gold to strengthen. And cutting spending significantly is the only way to try to mitigate the excesses the Fed is building into the economy with its easy-money policy, he adds. But that can't be done now "without great pain."

So, how high is gold going? "The question is, how far down is the dollar going?" Russell says.

Melting Pot
(09/08/2003; 07:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108315)
What's the Deal with Oil Prices?
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1322SNIPS:

According to Reuters, US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has ordered the energy department to "investigate" the spike in gas prices. "The nature of this (price) fluctuation struck me as being unusually large as well and in need of greater explanation," Abraham told a Congressional committee.

"It is imperative that this investigation determine both the underlying causes for these price increases, and whether or not industry participants are gouging consumers," Lieberman said in a letter to Abraham.

These reasons certainly do not ring with politicians in the way that words like "greed" and "gouging do," nor are U.S. politicians willing to admit that for the last four decades, they have openly made oil companies Public Enemy Number One�and that such attacks have their deleterious effects.

No, all they can do is to repeat the same tired arguments of the past�and the same lies. These reasons certainly do not ring with politicians in the way that words like "greed" and "gouging do," nor are U.S. politicians willing to admit that for the last four decades, they have openly made oil companies Public Enemy Number One�and that such attacks have their deleterious effects.

No, all they can do is to repeat the same tired arguments of the past�and the same lies. Politicians and bureaucrats created the oil crises of the 1970s, and it looks as though these folks in the Class of 2003 are trying to outdo their forbears of 30 years ago. Of course, successes of the political classes are gained only at the expense of everyone else. Would be that oil company executives were permitted to investigate Congress and the Energy Department. They would find more than a few smoking guns.

EOS

It never fails to amaze me how the politicians & bureaucrats keep the people looking in the wrong direction. Investigate the "oil companies for price gouging," it's the Federal Reserve and Congress engaged in price gouging to maintain dollar WRC status and seignorage privledge! If the sheople only understood the dollar/oil/gold linkage there would be serious changes in District of Criminals!

@Belgian

Looks like a LT H&S chart formation is forming in crude oil. If this really is H&S forming, and I believe it is, crude should rise minimum of $80 usd bbl with projection to $120+ usd high.

$120 bbl X 10 = $1200 gold price. Food for thought!

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/CotCLlt.gif

$120 bbl will get the sheople stirring and demanding real answers. Oh Lucy, the day of reckoning is approaching!
ge
(09/08/2003; 09:49:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108316)
Istanbul Gold Exchange Deputy urges Turkish CB to sell 100 tons of gold before prices fall
Before flying to Dubai to attend IMF-World Bank meeting where renewal of Washington Agreement will be discussed, the deputy talked to a Turkish daily. He predicted that gold price would fall to $300, citing the World Bank Report. Germany is selling gold to improve the budget, Turkey should do the same he urged before the prices fell. He cautioned that Turkish gold imports have surged in the current year and a sudden drop of prices would decrease the value of existing inventories.
link in Turkish: http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2003/09/08/ekonomi/aeko.html
The Hoople
(09/08/2003; 10:00:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108317)
Bush wants Treasury to take control of Fannie, Freddie, why now?
OK, two of the largest derivative players on the planet seem to be running amuck and Bush immediately offers giving the Treasury control over Fannie and Freddie instead of HUD. Could it be the need for the ubiquitous ESF intervention? Now that will be a marriage made in hell, a derivative shop of horrors and a surreptitious fund that has the full backing of the printing press and Fed. Need yet another reason why a rising pog is a terrifying thought to some people? Need another reason why not owning gold is a terrifying thought to me?
admin
(09/08/2003; 10:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108318)
MK's Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New QuickNotes.

New Stein.

"There's an implicit
warning somehow lost amidst the U.S.
press reports on Mr. Snow 's Asian
tour but surfaced almost casually by
FT in that same front page story: If
those Asian countries were forced to revalue their currencies, they would have no need to buy US
Treasuries......And then there's one other small problem, more than $1 trillion of the U.S. stock
market capitalization, according to FT, depends upon cheap Chinese imports alone.............. The
U.S., in other words, is stuck between a rock and a hard spot...................By the way that
increase in debt held by those countries (from $512 billion to $696 billion) amounts to a 36%
increase annualized."
Cavan Man
(09/08/2003; 10:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108319)
Istanbul (Constantinople) AU Exchg.
Lackeys and sychophants
Henri
(09/08/2003; 10:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108320)
Towncrier msg 108025 ref Elwood 24910 of 2/10/00
I am humbled and honored at having been included in the bundled "Special Monetary Discussion" which you linked in your msg 108025. Although my input is small and as near as I can determine yet unresolved among the likes of Aristotle, ORO and host of others.

Elwood had responded to my supposition that in the appropriation/purchase/acquisition of mortgage backed securities local banks are off the hook and able to initiate new loans up to their fractional reserve limit. In the process of creation/bundling into a security that is sold to fannie/freddie, are the banks off the hook? Are they then free to generate more loans using deposits as collateral for fractional reserve lending thereby creating more debt/money??

Elwood says :
"...The government sponsored enterprises you reference are not engaging in money-creation at all. They are merely borrowing and lending that which is created by the banking system. I think there's a guy named Noland who writes on the Prudent Bear site that propounds this idea that the GSE's create money. I think he's wrong. ..."

Well which is it? Inquiring minds want to know if it is indeed a moral hazard to allow govt acquisition of bank bundled MBS's for sale on the international debt market allowing the govt to indirectly subsidize the expansion of credit/mortgage debt; or, is it merely a borrowing and lending of bank created debt that the local bank is still on the hook to make good on.

Is a bank who bundled and transferred the securities to govt still therefore restrained in the amount of new debt they can now create having bundled out the good mixed with bad and eliminating their risk altogether, or are they free to cavort again and find more victims willing to indenture themselves/their property (except gold)to the govt?

Yes, yes, I'm certain their are all kinds of underwritten complications in all of this business all designed to eliminate time from the equation. To obfuscate who IS on the hook and more importantly WHEN.

Wouldn't this be a rather poor band aid approach to the problem of the inevitable inflationary expansion of a fiat regime...to just make time conveniently disappear for all intents and purposes? Keeping the band-aid on to avoid terminal hemmorage would then be the task at hand. I'm certain that judiciously applied torniquets would also be employed while changing the dressing to prevent infection/gangreen and losing whole limbs from the system.

What could this torniquet be...what manifest form is it. Money supply 1,2 or 3? Repo's? How many different types? interest rate settings (ludicrous since is is ultimately the market that decides interest rates in that it is the price paid plus risk premium/discount to be the gauge)?

Perhaps we can tell how close we are to the end by just monitoring and noting the number and speed with which the tourniquets are applied.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/08/2003; 10:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108321)
Bullion to you at one percent (<$4) over our cost, free shipping on 25 ounces
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Gold Buyers Group Special
Belgian
(09/08/2003; 10:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108322)
@ Melting Pot > POO
The 30 yrs $-price-chart of oil is a complete anomaly and TA/TI on this is unreliable ! Oil (and Gold) are "political" stuff, remember ! But, nevertheless the long term chart-pattern is strongly suggesting the oilprices will go higher, indeed. Not surprising, since there is a general consensus that the dollar will be "managed" down to a level of 1,25 � around Q1-'04 (???).

That would bring POO around the 35$ zone. And that is indeed a very, VERY critical area. Low Average POG to POO = 13
35$ (POO) x 13 = 455$ (POG)

It seems as if the whole financial machine is maneuvering as to turn the valuation-clock 10 years back ? As to erase the manias of this last decade. The only thing that keeps growing, not linear but exponentialy, is DEBT !

Renewed efforts will be made to bring IRs down again or at least freeze them at the absolute freezing point (-276�C)

Needless to repeat that we live in a "politicaly" steered economy AND finance for as long as we (all dollar reserve holders) "have" or "want" to agree on supporting the dollar-reserve.

The financial brotherhood has now the enormous task of adjusting POG to the lower dollar "WITHOUT" provoking massive and disturbing Gold Accumulation by dollar-infidels !!!
Could this be another reason for all the "official" negative Gold-Talk (Eichel-World Bank-IMF-more to come...)?

So what ! Whilst the dollar gets exhausted steadily, Gold Holders relax, watch and smile.

If we see a controlled decline of the dollar exchange rate, together with IRs remaining low...we have clear evidence again of the power of the political finance. A wonderful pr�lude for the ultimate collapse.

TownCrier
(09/08/2003; 10:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108323)
Physical demand -- that time of year
WGC today reports the following on gold demand:

"The professional market continues to focus on political uncertainties, but "grass roots" buying is also picking up in India as the monsoon draws to a close and the Festival season approaches. Rural buying in India has improved noticeably over the past week, while urban interest is also developing."
Camel
(09/08/2003; 11:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108324)
Geo - political manipulation of oil prices
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=7669.topic
Snip:

This much is clear and undisputable. Less clear is what was done with the information. Soon after assuming office in 1981, the Reagan Administration abandoned the established policy of pursuing d�tente with the Soviet Union and instead instituted a massive arms buildup; it also fomented proxy wars in areas of Soviet influence, while denying the Soviets desperately needed oil equipment and technology. Then, in the mid-1980s, Washington persuaded Saudi Arabia to flood the world market with cheap oil. Throughout the last decade of its existence, the USSR pumped and sold its oil at the maximum possible rate in order to earn foreign exchange income with which to keep up in the arms race and prosecute its war in Afghanistan. Yet with markets awash with cheap Saudi oil, the Soviets were earning less even as they pumped more. Two years after their oil production peaked, the economy of the USSR crumbled and its government
Melting Pot
(09/08/2003; 11:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108325)
The biggest story of the year in England, and a huge story everywhere else in the world except the USA.
http://www.takebackthemedia.com/meacher.htmlAmazing stuff here folks. TREASON is exactly what it appears Blair's former Minister accuses Bush of. READ this article - "The Chelshire Story" first, THEN read the commentary in The Guardian about the Meacher story, THEN read the article written by Meacher, THEN read the BBCNEWS report.

The Cheshire Story
http://www.zeppscommentaries.com/Politics/cheshire.htm

"Meacher sparks fury over claims on September 11 and Iraq war"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1036588,00.html

"This war on terrorism is bogus"

The 9/11 attacks gave the US an ideal pretext to use force to secure its global domination

Michael Meacher
Saturday September 6, 2003
The Guardian

We now know that a blueprint for the creation of a global Pax Americana was drawn up for Dick Cheney (now vice-president), Donald Rumsfeld (defence secretary), Paul Wolfowitz (Rumsfeld's deputy), Jeb Bush (George Bush's younger brother) and Lewis Libby (Cheney's chief of staff). The document, entitled Rebuilding America's Defences, was written in September 2000 by the neoconservative think tank, Project for the New American Century (PNAC).

The plan shows Bush's cabinet intended to take military control of the Gulf region whether or not Saddam Hussein was in power. It says "while the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/september11/story/0,11209,1036685,00.html

"Ex-minister attacks US over war"

'Political myth'

"The global war on terrorism has all the hallmarks of a political myth propagated to pave the way for a wholly different agenda - the US goal of world hegemony, built around securing by force command over the oil supplies required to drive the whole project."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3085656.stm

"Former British minister: Iraq war due to US bid to control oil"

Meacher also claimed in an article published in Saturday's edition of the Guardian that the US war on terrorism is a smokescreen and that the US knew in advance about the September 11 attack on New York but, for strategic reasons, chose not to act on the warnings.


http://www.muslimwakeup.com/archives/000198.php

Ex-UK minister says
"US may have let Sept 11 attacks to happen"

"Was this inaction simply the result of key people disregarding, or being ignorant of, the evidence?" he wrote, referring to intelligence clues he said were ignored before the attacks. "Or could US air security operations have been deliberately stood down on September 11? If so, why, and on whose authority?" Meacher, who served as environment minister for six years before being dismissed when Blair reorganised his ministers in June, later told British Broadcasting Corp radio that he didn't believe the US government had planned the attacks.

http://www.thedailystar.net/2003/09/07/d30907130365.htm

Like a leaky faucet, the truth slowy drips out??? How will you protect yourself financially from these allegations? Such inflamatory political statements whether they be truth or merely machinations could ultimately affect the US economy, currency and global politics.

Protect yourself with gold, it's noones liability or obligation and can withstand the fires that burn in the geopolitical economic arena. JMO NIA
TownCrier
(09/08/2003; 11:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108326)
Sentiment, and product...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030908/markets_precious_comex_1.htmlNEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - COMEX gold eased from 7-month highs early Monday in reaction to a report showing speculators committed 2.2 million additional ounces last week to an already giant gamble that the bullion bull market had further to run.

"They just keep strapping it on," said a trader.

...More and more investors now see gold as a portfolio diversifier amid lingering skepticism about economic recovery....

The market is starting to wonder when the new buying will dry up. The CFTC said late Friday in its Commitments of Traders report that the net noncommercial long position on the COMEX ballooned 22,620 (100 ounce) contracts to 122,847 contracts, the most lopsided bullish bet recorded, in the week to Sept 2.

--------(from url)-------

Someone sold me a rainbow once, back in my youth. I bought it. It was nice... while the sun briefly shone just exactly so.

Know what you are buying, and GET what you pay for. USAGOLD-Centennial will deliver the goods.

R.
specie-man
(09/08/2003; 12:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108327)
Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005
I started reading gold-related articles on the internet a few years ago. More recently, I joined this forum and have read the posts here with interest. I repeatedly read references here to "FOA". I finally decided that I had to figure out who/what "FOA" is/was. I stumbled across the "Gold Trail" link here and found the answer I was looking for. I read (or skimmed) most of the posts. Although I was tired and it was a lot to digest, I think I got the jist of it.

I've read many unfulfilled predictions about a future price explosion of gold.

So I've decided to write my own prediction/essay. It is not so much of a "price" prediction, but more of a "when" prediction.

Here it is. Comments, of course, are welcome.


Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the major buyers� intentions are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This predicted gold price increase would be enormous and would change the world. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly (on the paper market) in the last four years, but the rise has been gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, I believe that certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as I see it towards an explosion in the price of gold (as measured in US dollars):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

3.
Inflation starts taking hold in Japan and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. When the citizens of those countries start to complain how expensive everything is becomming (in their own currencies), then those governments will end their strong dollar practices. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

2.
The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself.

1.
Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, some oil-producing nations switch their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have a need to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.


Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant price inflation. When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear. A few months ago, the Nikkei stock average was around 9,200 - about the same as the Dow Jones average. Now the Nikkei is over 10,600 with the Dow falling behind at 9,500. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now exploding. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, I think it will end in a stalemate. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming within a year or two, I think.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected. I think we all know in the back of our minds WHAT the market is supposed to do.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. Lacking any unexpected triggers, I predict the countdown to finish no later than the Fall of 2005.


Gandalf the White
(09/08/2003; 13:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108328)
The PAPER gold story for today ! <;-)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3Z) --UPDATE for Monday 9/8/03
Open $378.7 HIGH $378.8 low $374.7 Last $376.4
Settlement $376.2 Change -$2.5 VOLUME = (only)5,856
YESTERDAY's Settlement price $378.7 and OPEN INTEREST 201,504
NOTE that the OI is now OVER 200K !
INTERESTING
GW
Cavan Man
(09/08/2003; 14:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108329)
specie-man
Excellent post sir and welcome!
industrialGold
(09/08/2003; 15:27:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108330)
specie man - great summary
Thanks for the concise summary.
Waverider
(09/08/2003; 15:46:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108331)
Oh Dear...more Tears.....
Another box of kleenix Operative....no DRM today...Black Blade must still be working in the field! ;o)
Chris Powell
(09/08/2003; 16:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108332)
Victory! Blanchard can proceed to trial against Barrick and Morgan
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1653Latest GATA dispatch.
DryWasher
(09/08/2003; 17:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108333)
The Tyranny of Paper Money
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst090803.htmFrom Ron Paul's current weekly column, linked above, and right on target as usual:

SNIP

In an article entitled "Gold and Economic Freedom," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that "The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market- triggering a fantastic speculative boom�The speculative imbalances had become overwhelming and unmanageable by the Fed� In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation." The irony is that Mr. Greenspan's words, written in 1966 to describe the era leading up to the Great Depression, could easily have been written in 2003 to describe the consequences of his own Fed policies during the 1990s.

END SNIP
Black Blade
(09/08/2003; 17:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108334)
Gold Defying Expectations!

I am happy to report that my project in the field is about finished (and extremely successful I might add!) and in a day or two I should be free to visit the forum a bit more often and even make some headway with the DMR.

Gold continues to defy the expectations of gold bears and has stumped so called experts. While they absolutely miss the big picture it is truly a case of "ignoring the elephant in the living room while stomping on ants".

The absolute failure of Treasury Secretary Snow's groveling in Asia before Japanese and Chinese monetary authorities has not even raised an eyebrow with these "experts". This is a defining event! America has lost a lot of prestige and is seen as a giant pinata to be beaten to a pulp by every industrialized nation on the planet. As a result the US dollar is pushed about in the continuing "competitive cureency devaluation" (aka "Currency War").

The smart money is "going for the gold" while history repeats itself once again. Open Interest? HA!!!

- Black Blade
Operative
(09/08/2003; 17:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108335)
@ Chris Powell
Thank You for the update on the continuing battle that is being waged on gold's behalf. If the judge's ruling indeed sticks (is not appealed) this opens the doors for what I hope will be a time of great interest to all gold fans as the secret books and testimoney under oath are laid out for the public to view. I am sure the defendants will try everything path available to delay the setting of a trial date and would not be surprised if they offer Barrick a blank check to settle out of court. I hope Barrick presses forward and brings to light seriousness of the charges laid against the defendents. It is time to crack open the door to that dimly lit room where a few powerfull men carry on thier secret attacks on the rest of humanity. Bravehearts on the offense now, lead the way!
21mabry
(09/08/2003; 18:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108336)
Ricardo
In 1816 David Ricardo wrote a report on the high price of bullion.In it he states that high price does not prove scarcity.He states that he could get any amount of bullion he wanted if he had funds to pay for it.In the report Ricardo states the high price of bullion is the result of an excessive quanity of circulating medium.The high price of gold in 1816 was the result of monetary inflation.There is nothing new under the sun it seems.21
Cavan Man
(09/08/2003; 19:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108337)
"We have governing responsibility."--WOW!
Behold the march of folly.Europe balks at Iraq bailout

The US-backed UN resolution seeking more troops faces a wall of resistance from Europe.

By Peter Ford | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

PARIS � As France and the United States dig in on opposite sides of the central question hanging over Iraq's future - who should control the country - Washington stands almost no chance of winning broad European support for its new UN Security Council resolution, analysts and officials here say.
America's suggestion that UN members should send troops to Iraq and that the world body could do more there, clearly offers outsiders only a supporting role. "The lead role has to be played by the United States," US Secretary of State Colin Powell insisted on NBC Sunday. "We have governing responsibility."

CM comment: Or, put Another way: "Since we've created this Frankenstein, this creature of American foreign policy over many years at great taxpayer expense and'since we were here first, we're grabbing all the low hanging fruit." (SADLY,IT'S ALL GOOD FOR GOLD.)

Dollar Bill
(09/08/2003; 19:25:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108338)
*>*............+
Two guys comment, I wonder how far off they are.
"... If the Asians do not buy Treasuries, the Fed can print all the money necessary to buy them. This would weaken the Dollar and make Asian goods less competitive. If the Dollar continued to weaken, factories would actually have to move from Asia back to the U.S.
The dilemma for Asia is that unless they are willing to support our Dollar, they will have to create internal demand for their own goods.
There is no dilemma for the U.S. We can either get lots of cheap goods from Asia in exchange for paper, or we can build back our manufacturing capacity and put people back to work. We win either way, basically. Of course, if we have to go back to manufacturing, or standard of living will decline, but that is the price you pay for making things instead of printing paper."

"...China needs us MUCH more than we need them. IF we slammed the door in their face tomorrow, the trade surplus would just shift to somewhere else: Mexico, Korea, etc. Those with the newfound suplus would be the new buyers of all of uncle sam's paper. God forbid, we might even make more stuff ourselves.
China on the other hand, would be screwed to the wall, with lots of manufacturing capacity and no markets. The resulting unemployment, default, and depression would seriously threaten their political stability."
Dollar Bill
(09/08/2003; 19:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108339)
*>*............+
Sir Cavan Man, greetings old buddy, dont you figger that germany and france are making a fuss because they are still trying to make the euro more viable by somehow getting oil traded in euros?
a nation of one
(09/08/2003; 19:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108340)
to DryWasher
"In an article entitled "Gold and Economic Freedom," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that "The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market- triggering a fantastic speculative boom�The speculative imbalances had become overwhelming and unmanageable by the Fed� In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation." The irony is that Mr. Greenspan's words, written in 1966 to describe the era leading up to the Great Depression, could easily have been written in 2003 to describe the consequences of his own Fed policies during the 1990s."

* These actions and their effects are intentional.
a nation of one
(09/08/2003; 20:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108342)
[!]
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
Houston, we have a gap...
Gandalf the White
(09/08/2003; 20:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108343)
YES indeed, Sir ANOO !!!! A nice LITTLE GAP !
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=f&a=12The one minute chart shows SPIKE in action !
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)
Chris Powell
(09/08/2003; 20:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108344)
Read the judge's decision against Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase in Blanchard case
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1654The federal court decision in Blanchard lawsuit
against Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase is posted
at the GATA Internet site. Please help us spread
the word that justice is coming.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail
to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Druid
(09/08/2003; 21:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108345)
Henri (9/8/03; 10:18:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108320)
"Elwood says :
"...The government sponsored enterprises you reference are not engaging in money-creation at all. They are merely borrowing and lending that which is created by the banking system. I think there's a guy named Noland who writes on the Prudent Bear site that propounds this idea that the GSE's create money. I think he's wrong. ...""

Druid: Henri, from my perspective, you have asked an extremely difficult question that future careers will be made of in trying to decipher and explain. I would totally disagree with Elwood because of the sheer complexity of this activity. I'm a Nolan groupie and totally agree that a parallel market in credit exists and has gotten totally away from the banking system, FED and the Treasury(all these players now have to work in tandem to control Frankenstein). There came a certain point where the leverage in credit lending based on future cashflows from various sources flat just expanded beyond rational lending. We now have this credit freak of nature that has to be continually fed or game over. This might be one answer as to why you have the securitization of many financial instruments ranging from the extremely conservative to the absolute bazaar. If you haven't had the chance, read Nolan's works over at www.prudentbear.com chronicling this insanity. Also, for a particular discussion on mortgage bonds and the pleomorphism that has taken place just with these instruments, I highly recommend pages 102-106, Frank Partnoy's latest, "infectious greed", How Deceit and Risk Corrupted the Financial Markets. I hope this helps.
Old Yeller
(09/08/2003; 21:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108346)
A nation of one,Greenspan's essay

Gold and Economic Freedom,why that's just bizarro behavior
on his part,isn't it?

Final act of the saga,coming soon.

It's my job,he'd say,I do it for pay.
Old Yeller
(09/08/2003; 21:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108347)
Druid

ANOTHER suggestion,"Creative Accounting and Destructive Risk" by Henry CK Liu.
Gandalf the White
(09/08/2003; 21:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108348)
HERE we are at $378.0 SPOT again ! <;-)
Slow down SPIKE --- wait for SPOT to catch up !
390 390 390
<;-)
Simply Me
(09/08/2003; 21:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108349)
RE: Dollar Bill (09/08/03; 19:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 108338)
From your post:
The dilemma for Asia is that unless they are willing to support our Dollar, they will have to create internal demand for their own goods.

My response:
Where's the delemna? With a population of over 1.2 billion, and such a large percentage of people still living by farming/herding, it looks to me like China has a huge untapped internal market waiting for just a little capatalist reform and a shot of liquidity. Why ship all that stuff across the ocean, when every Chin, Chan and Wong would like to have a vacuum cleaner, a dishwasher and a stereo.

From your post:
"...China needs us MUCH more than we need them. IF we slammed the door in their face tomorrow, the trade surplus would just shift to somewhere else: Mexico, Korea, etc. Those with the newfound suplus would be the new buyers of all of uncle sam's paper.

My response:
Why does any other country need a trade surplus of American debt that Uncle Sam can just inflate away. To invest in busted-out bonds?...the bubbled-up mortgage market?....or maybe the chopping sideways stock market that's about to take a dive when they find out there is no second-half recovery AGAIN?

Sovereign gold...the only true wealth because it owes allegiance to no one.
Simply
Druid
(09/08/2003; 21:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108350)
Old Yeller (09/08/03; 21:36:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 108347)
Old Yeller

"ANOTHER suggestion,"Creative Accounting and Destructive Risk" by Henry CK Liu"

Druid: Old Yeller, I've got it on the list thanks.
Black Blade
(09/08/2003; 22:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108351)
Market wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
The Oil Patch

Snippits:

This year is the third year of the new century and already we have had two energy crises. The first crisis began in California where mismanagement of deregulation left the state with large deficits and consumers with high utility bills. We in California are still living with the aftershocks of that crisis with lingering deficits and high utility bills. This past month the mid-west and the east coast were beset with an energy blackout reminiscent of the late 60's and early 70's. Plain and simple, the U.S. has neglected its energy infrastructure for far too long and it is beginning to show. The recent blackouts of last month and high energy prices are a portent of things to come. The problem will not be solved quickly nor will it go away. Unfortunately it is going to take further crises before the politicians wake up to the fact that energy is a vital input to economic growth and national security.

The U.S. must now import close to 60% of its energy needs and Americans consume over 25% of the world's daily output of oil. That import number is going to get larger by the end of this decade. The U.S. is more dependent on oil imports than it was 20 years ago. If nothing is done about it, the country's energy needs will rest solely on the whims of five Middle Eastern nations. This leaves the economy and national security of the nation at risk. Yet, most Americans, and especially most American politicians, worry very little about oil supplies or natural gas imports.

In 1993 there were over 5,000 active oil rigs; today we have fewer than 1,000. The only time energy gets on the front burner and captures people's attention is when a crisis erupts. Otherwise cheap and abundant energy has become an American entitlement. When crises do erupt, consumers cry foul and politicians blame the energy companies who become the scapegoat for our political and energy complacency. It is not just the fact that America is running out of energy and has become more dependent on Middle-Eastern producers to meet its energy needs; it is also our whole energy infrastructure. We haven't built a new refinery since 1976. Our energy grid system is woefully inadequate from the transmission lines needed to transport energy to the pipelines that are necessary to transport gasoline or natural gas to power plants. All we have done over the last two decades is live off the past, so today we find ourselves cannibalizing productive equipment as that very equipment deteriorates. Our refineries are operating at full capacity and every time there is a downtime for repair it almost becomes a crisis. There is no slack in the system so when something happens today it immediately turns into a crisis. Those crises will become a much more prominent feature of our national economic landscape in the years ahead.

The energy crisis cannot be solved in a day, a week, a month or a few years. There are no switches that the nation can turn on to create more energy. Sources of energy from coal, natural gas, and oil must be explored for, developed, and then transported. This process takes years. Refineries take 5-7 years to build. Add in environmental red tape and that time frame can extend beyond a decade. The private sector provides our last best hope of solving America's present and future energy crisis. Government, instead of hindering private capital through regulation and taxation, should stand out of the way and allow the marketplace to solve the problem. It is time for politicians to stop demonizing energy companies or make them the scapegoat for their own neglect, complacency and indecision. Stop vilifying companies every time prices rise in a crisis.


Black Blade: A good one from Puplava on energy. Much of what I have been hammering on for some time. Oil is a problem but the real problem is NatGas supply as it's a domestic production and delivery problem. What is really a bizarre situation for the US is that there is a lot of NatGas reserves and resources in the lower 48. In fact there is enough to meet our needs for a couple of decades. But here is the problem � energy companies are restricted to work over mature basins that are in decline. High potential target areas are simply off limits or are inaccessible due to lack of infrastructure and bureaucratic infighting between government agencies as well as activists federal appeals courts (in particular the ninth circuit court of appeals that legislates from the bench rather than interprets the law). The Rocky Mountain Front alone has potentially 138 tcf of NatGas supply (much of it is shallow low cost wells from nonconventional sources such as coalbed methane), yet companies are not allowed to drill, produce, and transport this natural resource. Don't get me wrong, this is not drilling in the Rocky Mountains or in national forests, but in the plains east of the Rocky Mountains. Meanwhile energy costs will remain high and are not expected to decline for at least the next decade. A new floor price of $4.50 Mmbtu is here to stay and that cost will wear on US industry and consumer pocketbooks. In short, forget about a real economic recovery because it ain't gonna happen.

BTW, Spot is getting quite frisky now ain't he? I can just imagine the turmoil among gold analysts trying to figure out the Spec long position on the Comex and the rising POG. They just need to take a step back and look at the big picture rather than dwell on such a narrow focus of this market. Precious metals are the only currencies not subject to the "competitive currency devaluation" that is beating up national scrip.
Gandalf the White
(09/08/2003; 22:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108352)
SE SPIKE --- you hit your head on that $379.0
Darn dog, did not listen to me again !
Must be those treats and "Roo" meat !!
SLOW down and wait for SPOT to catch up !
SLOW and STEADY !
<;-)
Zhisheng
(09/08/2003; 22:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108353)
Was gibt?
Glad to have you back Black Blade---good stuff as usual!

Hey Gandalf....what is with the hounds tonight? Usually they dig a hole in which to pass the night.
Gandalf the White
(09/08/2003; 22:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108354)
Sir Z's question -- <;-)
Must be Sir Sundeck's "Roo" meat, as they are sure JUMPY !
<;-)
steady
(09/08/2003; 22:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108355)
ratio
did u see silver hit its head on the 74 to one ratio. now back down to 70.
Black Blade
(09/08/2003; 22:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108356)
Treasuries Slide on New Debt Fears
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=3&u=/nm/20030908/bs_nm/markets_bonds_dc
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries slipped on Monday as relief at a smaller-than-expected debt auction was overtaken by an awareness that the government's ever-widening budget deficit would sooner or later take a toll on bonds. Traders were happy early in the session to discover the government's debt sale later this week would feature less new debt than previously anticipated and bid prices of government debt higher. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it would sell $16 billion in five-year notes and $13 billion in the reopened 10-year notes, below market expectations for $18 billion and $15 billion, respectively. But by the afternoon, the fleeting relief was burdened by a recognition that the sheer amount of debt being issued these days places a tough-to-break ceiling on the price of government debt. President Bush raised the financial stakes on Sunday when he used a national address to ask Congress for another $87 billion for the U.S. military and reconstruction in Iraq. The figures were daunting even for traders accustomed to dealing with lots of zeros. "We're talking a, what, $500 billion deficit this year, and that's a lot of money in anyone's language," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer, noting it was roughly equal to the entire Gross Domestic Product of Australia. Consumers appeared to be taking Washington's lead on debt, with personal debt outstanding rising to $6 billion in July to total $1.774 trillion, the Federal Reserve said on Monday.

Black Blade: Thankfully we have the printing press and it's rather easy to add a few zeros by adjusting the type set. How lovely it will be when rates jump a bit higher and kill the remnants of the refi market. Looks like that $500 billion "official" deficit will rise a bit more now that the Iraqi oil isn't coming to market and the prez sez he wants a few dollars more. I wonder just how much longer the Japanese and Chinese are willing to buy all this flood of US debt at auction, especially at it is devaluing at a nice clip. The notes are a nice design so it should make for some attractive wall paper. Still, I can't believe anyone was really surprised by these developments.

slingshot
(09/08/2003; 23:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108357)
Midas Crusade
The assasins body was taken below to the dungeon and Sir Black Blade searched the body. Finding only a few gold and silver coins and a dagger of fine metal engraved with the highest quality. Soon Gandalf entered the cell and looked upon the dead man. He looked like any other traveler and if it was not for the keen eye of Cougar, the festival would have ended in tragedy. Gandalf moved closer to the assasin and knelt down pulling open his shirt. On the mans chest was a tattoo of the image in the crystal ball. Sir M.K. entered the room. Gandalf rose and turned to the two Knights. They will try again, he said. Abruptly he excused himself and went to his chambers.
The following days would find more who seeked refuge in the land of the free. Avondale,Highlands,Metuchen and others would find the fire of the night. In the council chambers the fears of Sir M.K. would be voted on. An unamious decision to take the fight to the Dark Forces.
Preparations became easier as each story unfolded and helpful hands extended to the unfortunate.
Then one morning, at the break of dawn. Horsemen began to assemble at the gate of the castle. Their banner the same as the one of those on the northern plain. Green with a cresent moon and crossed swords.One hundred. Two Hundred. The sentries sounded the alarm. Five hundred and there seem no end. They stood motionless in ranks. And not until mid morning was there any movement. A flag of truce came forward with three riders and they stopped at the entrance to the castle. The castle gate was wide open.

Slingshot-----------------<>
slingshot
(09/09/2003; 00:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108358)
Gandalf the White
Looks like Spike got alittle jealous.

Porterhose, Spike. ummmmmmmm!
Slingshot---------------<>
slingshot
(09/09/2003; 00:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108359)
Spike
Porterhouse, Porterhouse, Porterhouse that is.

Slingshot--------------;0)
DummyANI
(09/09/2003; 03:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108360)
Jim Sinclair is knocking out Mitsui-Precious Metal on TOCOM at Sep. 9, 2003 in Tokyo
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.htmlToday, a total trading volume of gold-future market in TOCOM is 181,160 contracts(181 tonnes paper gold). The price of gold is spike at 379 dollars per ounce. This was caused by Mitsui short cover.
Mitsui sold 90,147 contracts, and bought 91,765 contracts at Sep. 09, 2003. Nearly half of TOCOM gold-volume were traded only by Mitsui. Last February (Feb. 05, 2003), Mitsui positioned net 83,295 short.
At present, Mitsui positioned net 23,099 short. Mitsui is changing his positions from the short-side to the long-side. I am very interesting in todays NewYork market.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
Zhisheng
(09/09/2003; 04:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108361)
Gold Today
Very interesting information DummyANI. I share your interest in the Comex trading today. Way it looks now, the cash price may pierce $380 before then.
Henri
(09/09/2003; 04:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108362)
Druid and Old Yeller
Thank you for the references..I'll check them out.
mikal
(09/09/2003; 05:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108363)
More mutual fund stains
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2003-09-07-outrage_x.htmScandal has investors fighting mad
By John Waggoner and Thomas A. Fogarty, USA TODAY -09-08-03
-Excerpt: "The mutual fund trading scandal that began unfolding last week has left individual investors feeling betrayed and outraged. Even worse, it leaves some questioning whether the fund industry will be able to repair the damage."
Black Blade
(09/09/2003; 05:47:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108364)
The Lord of the Castle (Mike Kosares) Quoted By Dow Jones � Congrats Mike!
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030909/15/3e138.html
Iraqi Quagmire Could Push Gold Over $400/Oz In Near-Term

Snippit:


Michael Kosares, the president of Denver-based bullion brokerage Centennial Precious Metals, has seen investors hedging their portfolios against potential losses in stocks and bonds, as well as against a further deterioration in the U.S. economy. "Gold investor concerns these days are more centered around some of the negative fallout from the war on terrorism such as rising deficits, bond market problems and deteriorating relations with key trading partners," said Kosares. Kosares agrees that gold stands to benefit from a further slide in the value of the greenback, especially if the dollar printing presses keep rolling to finance the war on terror, which now carries a $87 billion price tag. Kosares said most portfolio planners are adopting long-term strategies that account for any fallout from the efforts to rebuild Iraq, as well as the possibility of further terrorist acts at any time.

John H. Mesrobian, president of Virginia-based Constantinople Advisors, sees a few different price movement scenarios developing on the gold market. "A close above $380 will point to a quick move to $400-plus. Or gold will consolidate first before moving higher. In both cases $400 is going to be breached - and soon," he said. Mesrobian, whose firm advises investors on currencies, bonds and commodities, said gold is being driven by improving fundamentals and moves on the currency markets, particularly the slumping U.S. dollar. "The dollar is toast," he said, predicting a further slide in 2004.


Black Blade: Congrats Mike! What a nice surprise to see this as I head out the door to take care of business today. Even CNBC's Sqwakbox is making note of gold over $380 an ounce this morning. Yes indeed - the US dollar is "toast".

Black Blade
(09/09/2003; 06:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108365)
As Gold toys with the $380 level mid-morning London, a broad consensus appears to be forming among market professionals for a move well beyond recent trading highs.

Snippit:

A source of constant nagging concern among Gold market pundits, the record speculative long position in New York gold futures appears to have been grudgingly accepted as sustainable in the short to medium term by many observers overnight. Fresh money has continued to flow into the precious metal as investors sought to diversify their portfolios, forcing a rethink of the markets' long held reference points for judging the scale of the speculative position. UBS Warburg in a report this morning added; "An all time high in spec longs does not necessarily point to an immediate sell-off in gold"

Regional reports also pointed to continued healthy demand: "We're seeing buying from the Japanese, but also locally," said a Hong Kong based trader who believes gold will break overhead resistance at $379 that has thus far held firm. "With all the safe haven interest lately, I'm targeting $380, maybe $385, by the end of the week," the trader said prophetically

Similarly, ABN AMRO said in a client note that; "We will probably see more support ahead of Sept. 11 this week, and a break of $379 will see gold heading toward $390 reasonably smartly".


Black Blade: I don't have a direct link to this but this short article by TheBullionDesk's Dominic Hall says pretty much what I and few others have been saying � forget about the large Spec long position � look at the big picture! "Competitive Currency Devaluation" leaves few other options open to investors as Dubya pleads for a "few" billion more to add to a soaring budget deficit that has no end in sight and poor John Snow's pathetic groveling on his hands and knees while in Asia did not help matters much for dollar bulls and hopes for economic recovery. As an American I personally am embarrassed by the recent performance of the Treasury Secretary but as one who has insured himself with the currency of kings I feel much safer knowing my portfolio insurance is there to defend against the ravages that are about to beset the dollar and put tremendous pressure on the economy.

Gotta run now but these certainly are "Interesting Times"!
Cavan Man
(09/09/2003; 06:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108366)
Congratulations to USAGOLD!
(on your anniversary)"Time wins more converts than reason.:

Thomas Paine

(though the BEST REASONING is right HERE)
Chris Powell
(09/09/2003; 06:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108367)
Link to article just excerpted by Black Blade
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/Generators/ReportItem.asp?Code=dh001Can anyone say: "commercial signal failure"?
Caradoc
(09/09/2003; 07:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108368)
Ain't no rush like a gold rush
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B1C46EB4B%2DA8DF%2D422E%2D9DE6%2DDFD41097F7B8%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&I thought Mitsui taking its losses on the short side and going long for more than 9000 contracts might not be enough to make this the day we'll remember when we're old, but the news that GATA's case will proceed enhances the odds that today is the day.

Snippit:
"The Blanchard case now promises embarrassing disclosures about secret collusion between Barrick, Wall Street, and central banks to control the price of gold. GATA congratulates and is deeply grateful to Blanchard & Co." Murphy continued: "For five years GATA has painstakingly developed the evidence of the surreptitious suppression of the gold price. We've done a good job but we haven't had the power to compel the perpetrators to disclose their records and answer questions under oath. Now Blanchard & Co. will have that power in pursuit of the truth about the gold market. The results may be explosive - and liberating not only to mining companies and gold investors but also to the developing countries that have been devastated for so long by the gold price suppression scheme. Justice is coming."

Caradoc
Waverider
(09/09/2003; 07:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108369)
3.....2......1...BLASTOFF / \
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1&sRange=3Spot @ $381.00+ and Silver...$5.25 this morning!
Operative
(09/09/2003; 07:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 108370)
NEW Peach Color Dollar Set To Debut Oct 9
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=2&u=/dowjones/20030909/bs_dowjones/200309090110000059First Thing that comes to mind is how many of these "peaches" will it take to purchase one ounce of the heavy gold stuff. ??? 400/500/600 by the date of the new dollar debut?
Melting Pot
(09/09/2003; 07:35:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108371)
New Peach-Colored $20 Bills to Make Debut Oct. 9
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=2&u=/dowjones/20030909/bs_dowjones/200309090110000059WASHINGTON -- The new peach-hued U.S. $20 bill will be introduced at U.S. banks and businesses Oct. 9, officials plan to announce today, Tuesday's Wall Street Journal reported.

"The idea is to get consumers, businesses and money handlers accustomed to the pretty new note."

EOS

Is a hard core revaluation at hand??? Appears so!
Remarx
(09/09/2003; 08:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108373)
To Buy or Not to Buy Today?
Help! My retirement funds transfer to a precious metals IRA finally went through, of course on a day like today. Should I buy now, or wait a couple of days for a small dip? Any opinions?
Boilermaker
(09/09/2003; 08:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108374)
Gold Contracts
I'm assuming that we'll see a change in the gold contract margin requirements soon. Will such a change be only for newly placed contracts, ie., will existing contracts be grandfathered? Also, will it affect speculators and commercials equally and longs and shorts equally?

Hopefully one of experts here can give us some answers along with the probable market reaction.

Thanks,
Boilermaker
steady
(09/09/2003; 09:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108375)
the real reason.
Black blade , you know the real reason that was put out there,( usagold.com msg#: 108364) besides praising our host.
its a beacon guiding those who think to this site. they just cant come out and say it so they point the direction lets hope some more tired and distraught fiat defectors stumble on over here where there minds, souls,and beliefes in man can be nutured and restored.
honest money! an idea whose time has returned!

a nation of one
(09/09/2003; 09:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108376)
(No Subject)
"How long this mood of optimism [about gold] will last all depends on the continuing influx of new money. In an interview with Mineweb, John Hathaway, manager of the $500 million Tocqueville Gold Fund said of the current rally, "It's very early days yet". He drew particular attention to the new class of Gold securities, ...: "They're going to draw money, ...into the gold market in a way that nobody can imagine."

* In my role as fervent amateur, I interpret this to mean that we will see a very great deal more U.S. dollars being used to purchase our yellow stuff. Since I read yesterday something about the increasing price of a thing being related to increasing money available to buy it, to me this means that -over time- pog is going much, much higher. I have been working for about ten years to get my dear mother -I call her my 'dear mother' both because she is dear, and because if I didn't she might clobber me- to buy gold. She was extremely reluctant at first. I worked on her for a long time. Then, after she bought some at around 350 and it went to 250, she got very polite and I got very silent for a while, though I still knew it was a great purchase at the time. She would say, "Phoo! Gold is not going anywhere," or words to that effect. This was in the 1990s. Later when pog went above 300 I was able to get her more interested, and she bought more. Now she sees the light. This morning, I told her, "Mom, gold is at 382." She said, "Oh boy!" And when I talk to her now, she says, "should I put everything into it?" "No," I tell her, "But keep your powder dry." She will be 94 this Christmas. Last week when I visited her she asked how much I thought gold would get to be worth in the long term. I confided that although I thought 400 seems pretty probable, 500 doesn't seem all that unrealistic, and I disclosed that I wouldn't have bought if I hadn't thought it was going to a thousand in the next few years, and I had to put in there also the fact that reason is not slow to justify a potential of 3,000 per ounce, and that some people think it could go to 6,000, and that if the dollar bites the dust 12,000 was not impossible, and of course there was that guy not long ago who said that 32,000 was the price he thought was most realistic, and that other people have begun repeating that, and I did not omit telling her the well-known saying that "Every bull market always goes higher than anyone expects." She listened to all this with sincere interest and didn't say a word. Then, after awhile, she asked, "Do you really think it could go that high?" I replied, "I think a thousand dollars is likely," and I held my breath, not daring to tell her my real estimation. "Dinner will be ready soon," she said, and she didn't even blink an eye, or laugh derisively, or scold, or chide, or try to hit me, or pull my shirttail, or anything. At dinner I could tell that she was counting her money in her mind, and she looked at me out of the corner of her eye, and later we talked about buying more gold. (Her potroast still tastes as good as it did when she was forty.)
Clink!
(09/09/2003; 09:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108377)
@remarx
As none of us here are investment advisors, I don't think anyone can help you too much - it's your decision. However, here are a few points to ponder :-

1/ Why do you have to buy it all at once ?

2/ Looking at the medium-term trend (ie breakout from bullish pennant), where do you think the price will be in a year's time ? +/-$10 would you care when you retire ?

3/ If you are standing on the crater's edge of an active volcano which could blow any second trying to take a photo, how long would you stand there before taking your 'snapshot' and getting the heck out of danger ?

And lastly, just be grateful that you are in a position to have to make this decision ! Good Luck !
C!
a nation of one
(09/09/2003; 09:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108378)
to remarx

I'm no expert, but if I were in your shoes, this is how I would think of it.

If I was going to hold on to it for five or ten years, I would just go ahead and buy it. Then, in five or ten years, if the price goes up a lot, I would just go ahead and sell it. Trying to squeeze every cent out of a situation by timing purchases and sales is a shore on which many ships are wrecked.

Of course the decision is yours, like Clink! says, not mine. I am just sharing my ridiculous thoughts.
Gandalf the White
(09/09/2003; 09:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108379)
Progress report on PAPER gold at the COMEX ! <;-)
Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) at NY time of 11:00
Open $382.4; HIGH $384.8; low $376.0; Last $382.3 Change +$6.1
VOLUME = 30,612
YESTERDAY's Settlement Price $376.2 and OpenInterest 201,504
DON'T wait any longer to get the REAL STUFF !
390 390 390
<;-)
Jing Zu
(09/09/2003; 09:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108380)
@Clink!
That sounds like Great advice...Excellent information for Remarx.

Happy Birthday Michael and Jonathan Kosares!

May Future bring you Fortune....
steady
(09/09/2003; 09:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108381)
ratio
i think a .50 rise in gold causes a .01 rise in silver to keep the ratio equitable! check it out. i calculate teh ratio every few min. its a good indicator as to where silver is headed under 70 silver goes down 74 -73 silver goes up. interesting way to watch silver trade! w
Clink!
(09/09/2003; 09:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108382)
@anoo
Congratulations on your success. Mine is twenty years younger, but still has everything in shares (blue chips which she has probably held for 40+ years so the capital gains scares her) and cash/CDs. I broached the subject with her for the first time last Sunday, and, while she did not laugh, I put the phone down thinking how far I still have to go to persuade her. It's nice to know that patience and perseverance work !
C!
PS. Come to think of it, that's exactly the method that most mothers use on their children .....
Jing Zu
(09/09/2003; 09:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108383)
@a nation of one
More wonderful advice!Nice day...
steady
(09/09/2003; 10:00:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108384)
ABACUS?
http://www.ee.ryerson.ca:8080/~elf/abacus/what math tool would be usefull in finding htre ratio between to floating values,? the abacus.
wonder if it is possible that is what the big asian intrests are using? in the ratio spread game.
a nation of one
(09/09/2003; 10:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108385)
our mothers

The government put laws into effect -regarding capital gains, and also with regard to investment vehicles like IRAs and 401s- partly because the government wants to control what people do with their own money. It's hard to avoid this manipulation. Usually, I just pay the tax, and form my decision as if there was no tax. It costs me, but at least this way the government doesn't manipulate me. That's what my priorities are. Most people wouldn't do that, and they are free not to. But neither should they get themselves into a situation, like your mother and mine, where if they do what they want, they have to pay the government a substantial fine, or a sizable penalty, which is what capital gains amounts to in their kind of circumstance. I am not poor, but I keep my income very small. My home is paid for, and I'm not interested in the kinds of things most people are, so I don't have to have a lot of income. And I can even increase it considerably without having to go over the line such that the law would require that I have to pay taxes. This is how I will legally handle part of my capital gains without having to pay taxes on them. I intend to end up holding a lot of gold, and to convert enough of it to cash year by year, and keep my income under the line. Of course sooner or later, as the price goes up parabollically, then I will have to unload, and then I will have to pay taxes on that. But it will be less in taxes than if done the other way. Most people never realize what the government makes them do with their own money. They just nod their heads and say yes. That is not for me.
The Hoople
(09/09/2003; 10:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108386)
Boilermaker
The Comex is a glorified bucket shop. My experience is they are a bunch of weasels and jackals who arbitrarily change rules on a whim. I think Bunker Hunt could attest to that statement. I have had hedge status there for 5 years until gold made its recent run. They without notification simultaneously raised margins and voided my hedge status. My margin per contract went from $800 to $2,350 overnight. Fortunately they didn't flush me out. Don't count on fair play, and don't believe for a minute they won't protect their cabal buddies.
a nation of one
(09/09/2003; 10:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108387)
to Clink!

I had to talk to my mother for five or six years, about gold, before she took me seriously. It didn't hurt that I advised her in September of 2000 to get out of stocks, which, the following February, she did. Now I am glad I expended the effort, because the result is turning out to be good. Her situation is improved, and so is mine. Now we talk about these things routinely.
steady
(09/09/2003; 10:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108388)
brother can u spare 2 dimes (inflation)
2 dimes get u one gram of silver. time to go panhandle, brother can u spare two dimes a i need a gram of that good stuff!
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 11:08:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108389)
@ The Hoople
When did COMEX put these margin changes into effect? I am curious in that recent changes in the rules of the game are a reliable indicator as to the depseration of the cabal. It appears that pro-gold events are coming to pass almost daily. I can taste the panic.

Thanks!
PA
donnemuir
(09/09/2003; 11:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108390)
New $20 FRN
Is it simply irony or is there a message behind the color gold "20" on the new bill?
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 11:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108391)
@ donnemuir - RE: the new $20 bill
It has been said that nothing happens in politics (banking being a logical extension of) by chance. Is it coincidental that the NYSE and LSE have fast-tracked the approval of a EFT (security to represent one tenth of an ounce of gold and be traded like a stock) to occur by the end of September AND then the UST announcing the release of the new peach (gold) colored $20 at the start of October? I do not think that this is coincidence. I believe that we are at the door step of a monetary transition that has long been predicted at this forum. The next 30-60 days will be anything but boring. Buckle up.

I may be wrong.

PA
donnemuir
(09/09/2003; 11:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108392)
@Paper Avalanche
Thanks, I've been following the background noise on the new currency but could not put it together with such clear and concise understanding. Still that peach colored number 20 sure looks gold to me...oh well "some call it a spear...the Fed calls it...."
Ten Bears
(09/09/2003; 12:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108393)
good read today from Lewis @chaos
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmIn vain may heroes fight and patriots rave,
If secret Gold sap on from knave to knave.

Once, we confess, beneath the patriot's cloak,

From the crack'd bag the dropping guinea spoke,

And jingling down the back stairs, told the crew

'Old Cato is as great a rogue as you.'
Blest paper credit ! best and last supply !

That lends Corruption lighter wings to fly !

Gold imp's by thee can compass hardest things,

can pocket states, can fetch or carry kings
The Hoople
(09/09/2003; 12:03:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108394)
Paper Avalanche,
The COMEX margin/hedge status switch happened back in the spring when gold made that brief run at $390.As you might recall it almost immediately drifted back to $320- $340. Funny how crude oil almost quadrupled from $10 to $38 and the NYMEX never raised a margin yet gold had a 30% run and they apparently hit the panic button. Don't forget also the 1999 "market orders only" edict on gold options when option holders that were $4,000 in the money were forced to accept $800 or whatever. Sir Marketalk can attest to that one I believe. You are on the right track when you say the next squirrelly COMEX rule change might be the last gasp of desperation.
Liberty Head
(09/09/2003; 13:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108396)
Fashionable Fiat - The New $20 Bill
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/030909/170/57s2x.html
The new more colorful notes now have the added bonus value of going with a wider variety of decors, should one decide to use them as wallpaper in the near future.
No doubt, the next edition will be quilted and come in double rolls. :-)

Best Wishes
Clink!
(09/09/2003; 13:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108397)
Designer Money
Ah ! I always wondered what handle Martha Stewart used at this forum ... LOL
C!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/09/2003; 14:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108398)
Special Offer:
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segel_flieger
(09/09/2003; 14:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108399)
COMEX margin requirements
>> Also, will it affect speculators and commercials equally and longs and shorts equally?

The exchange margins for those with hedger status (meaning they buy/sell the commodity as part of their business) are usually lower than for speculators. This is true of most any commodity for which futures contracts exist, not just Gold and Silver. Requirements are always the same for long vs. short positions.

The current numbers for COMEX are available at;

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/ewd_margins.jsp

The CBOT mini contracts have slightly lower requirements (for gold, multiply by 3 to correct for the difference in contract size, for silver multiply by 5);

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/report/0,2531,13+49+90+D,00.html

Can't say I personally see an increase quite yet, I think prices and volatility will need to go up more. (Perhaps something north of $400/oz for gold?).

The effect on the marketplace more or less depends on the size of the change in margins *relative* to the change in underlying prices. It's when margins are increased more (in a relative sense) than the price of the commidity that weak specs are "knocked out" because they are over-committed.
Solomon Weaver
(09/09/2003; 15:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108400)
mini mini gold spot contracts
Paper Avalanche (9/9/03; 11:20:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108391)
@ donnemuir - RE: the new $20 bill
It has been said that nothing happens in politics (banking being a logical extension of) by chance. Is it coincidental that the NYSE and LSE have fast-tracked the approval of a EFT (security to represent one tenth of an ounce of gold and be traded like a stock) to occur by the end of September. ....

Paper A. Such a security must be redeemable in real gold!! Otherwise it is gold fiat. My suggestion, if the security is created, would be that gold mining companies should simply stop mining gold, buy up a bunch of these coupons, and deliver (sell) them to the folks in India, who can give them in envelopes at weddings.

Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver
(09/09/2003; 15:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108401)
interactive look at the new $20 bill
http://www.moneyfactory.com/newmoney/main.cfm/currency/interactivebillSome might find this interesting.
Carl H
(09/09/2003; 15:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108402)
Odd Charts
Did anyone else notice that the Silver and Gold charts over at K did a backward step in time at about 15:15 NY time. I have never seen this before. It strikes me as odd that it would just happen to occur on such a nice day for gold and silver.

Got Physical Gold?
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 15:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108403)
@ Solomon Weaver
Agreed. However, I am inclined to think that the ruse awaiting those who fall for the new paper gold security will be similar in design to our current fractional reserve banking system. The notion that there must be a comparable amount of gold standing ready for delivery relative to the number of shares outstanding assumes a "run" by the masses to redeem the paper gold security en masse. As long as every holder of said paper gold security should not redeem simultaneously, there can exist (and likely will exist) a number of paper gold security shares backed by a fraction of the total physical gold represented by the outsanding shares. Same scam. Different vehicle. This go around, IMO, it is simply a means by which US and GB investors are able to ride the upcoming gold rocket. This thing is ready to take off and what better way to help voters alleviate their massive debts than to give them a means by which they will be able to get more fiat thorugh their 401(k) or brokerage accounts for simply betting on the POG (and I think that you will begin to see VERY pro-gold propoganda in the financial media once the EFT is released so as to get the herd moving in the right direction as quickly as possible - i.e. the Barron's article this weekend)

PAPER AVALANCHE - not just a posting handle, but a mathematical certainty
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 15:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108404)
@ Solomon Weaver - another thought
There will likely be a very high requirment for physical redemption (i.e. a 10 or 100 ounce minimum) to facilitate the ability to have a large number of EFT shares supported by a relatively small amount of physical gold. If you have just a few shares you will not be able to redeem for physical. Kinda like the margin requirements on the COMEX. You must be this tall to ride the ride and the amusement park reserves the right to lower the bar in the middle of the ride.

That's how I would do it if I wanted to replicate the current futures contract scam.

PA
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 15:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108405)
@ Solomon Weaver - another thought - part two
Anticipating a tidal wave of fiat dollars seeking gold, might the EFT be a sponge of sorts strategically placed by TPTB to ensure that the transition from the dollar to gold as the new reserve asset is as orderly as possible? I believe that the EFT is a control valve to relieve the pressure on the physical markets while those who constituted the cabal of the past two decades unwind their positions over the next sixty months. Soon there will be a clamoring among the great unwashed to want to get in on the gold action. They will call their brokers for advice. The broker will dissuade said potential gold investor from taking his money out of the market using the same tried and true scare tactics (costs too much to store, can be stolen, etc.) and will have a very convenient alternative for the insistent investor that will allow him to benefit dollar for dollar with the price of gold. This will at least buy some time until the price of physical begins to separate from the paper price.

I may be way off base here. Just thinking out loud.

PA
Gondolin
(09/09/2003; 16:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108406)
Paper Avalanche 108405
You stated you may be way off target with your last comments on the EFT. Somehow I think you've more likely hit the target in the middle and split the arrow in two.

The proposed EFT, the new paperisation proposals for the physical Indian market are all surely means being introduced by TBTB, the PPT and Friends to manage and control the rise of gold and so allow the unwinding of the untenable position they are in.

The golden horse has bolted but they've still got a few ropes they're throwing out to try and get that saddle on so they don't get dragged through the dust and ultimately left behind.

Will be interesting to see the change in the media angle over the next months as POG pushes and breaks the $400 mark.
Bloomberg comments tonight from some unknown analyst were laughable at best, but pathetic in their obvious insincerity, indicated by her nervous twitching and refusal to focus the eyes on any one point through the course of the interview as she dismissed the latest surge as unsustainable.
donnemuir
(09/09/2003; 16:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108407)
Paper Avalanche
Maybe the FED will issue a whole new category of colored paper specifically for EFT redemption and create another tier of paper gold.
Boilermaker
(09/09/2003; 17:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108408)
segel_flieger & The Hoople
Thanks for the gold contract margin info for my msg 108374.

The gold war on the paper front is truly heating up. The good guys, spec longs, seem to be moving forward and gaining strength. It's like WW1 trench warfare. One trench at a time at the expense of much ammunition and many lives. When does the enemy bring out the WMD's, ie., mustard gas?

Maybe I'm paranoid after suffering through years of the "morning after the gold rally blues" scenario. At what point does the enemy capitulate? In any case the winners will be rewarded with a paper trophy, suitable for mounting but not redeemable for real things.
neer-do-well
(09/09/2003; 18:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108409)
carl h
Yes, I noticed the the back step on kitco. No explanation tho.

Can anyone direct me to a source that sells physical rhodium?
Gandalf the White
(09/09/2003; 18:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108410)
Calling Sir Rich !!! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GHello Sir Rich !!!
Have you finished smoothing the mud yet ?
Here is ANOTHER little "green X" for you on your chart.
Do you know what a "Bullish Catapult Breakout ALERT" is ?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/09/2003; 18:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108411)
AND here is the P&F Goldhearts Chart !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThat is a NEW "X" above the red "Nine", BUT they used all the green ink on the SILVER chart today and made the "X" black ! (Tough to get good TA helpers nowdays !)
390 390 390
<;-)
Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 18:59:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108412)
Acronym apologies
The Exchnage Traded Fund is the ETF. I mentioned in my earlier posts that the EFT is the paper gold security. That is my mistake. EFT is an acronym that I regularly use in my line of business (Electronic Funds Transfer).

Sorry for the confusion.

Thanks!
PA
R Powell
(09/09/2003; 19:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108413)
"Bullish Catapult Breakout ALERT"
Gandalf: thanks for the chart link and yes, that green X does look good there. Why aren't there more green ones?

I would be hard pressed to define exactly what a bullish catapult breakout alert is but I haven't been able to find a negative indicator other than Cudlow, Krammer and Cohen for some time now. AUX and HUI !!

Has gold reached the point where many wish they were there and are itching for a small retraction so they can jump in? Maybe. It certainly appears to have buying support on any downturn. I like to think of the Path of least resistence and then I think up- for sure. Silver is still priced lower than those levels that Buffet bought in 1997!

Hey, I'll bet that alert has something to do with that green X doesn't it, and its sitting above all the other ones, yes?

M.K. Congratulations! If gold and silver really get going you may have to get used to interviews. Remember now, we try to win one game at a time, it's a team effort and we couldn't have done it without the fans' support.
Are we having fun now?
Rich
Goldbug 1
(09/09/2003; 19:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108414)
PM Liquidation
On the advice of my cat Fur Face I today liquidated all my PM & PM Share positions when gold hit US$382.
OK Spot & Spike, its canine knowledge against feline intuition. May the best animal win!
Dollar Bill
(09/09/2003; 19:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108415)
*>*............+
I agree with Sir R.Powell, Congradulation MK on getting some more notice. Thanks Simply Me, methinks you are right.
Melting Pot
(09/09/2003; 19:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108416)
Senators seek tariffs against China
Beltway Bandits in a Panic???Senators seek tariffs against China
Bush administration backs China criticism, but not tariffs By Corbett B. Daly, CBS Marketwatch
Last Update: 7:34 PM ET Sept. 9, 2003


WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Ratcheting up the political pressure, a group of U.S. senators introduced legislation Tuesday to impose tariffs on all imports from China to prod the Chinese government to drop its nearly decade-old currency peg to the U.S. dollar.

"This legislation is a tough-love effort to get the Chinese to stop playing games with their currency in order to level the playing field for American companies trying to compete with goods and service coming from China," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., who is leading the effort to pressure the Bush administration to spur China to change its currency policy.

The administration is backing a companion measure that criticizes China but stops short of imposing tariffs.

"The Treasury Department helped draft the legislation so they are supportive" of the companion measure that stops short of imposing tariffs, said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Asked about the comments from Graham, a Treasury Department official made it clear that Treasury aides helped only with the resolution calling on China to let its currency float but did not assist with the bill that would impose 27.5 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports.

"We offered technical advice for the (companion) resolution, but had no involvement in the Dole-Schumer legislation," the Treasury official said, referring to Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., another of the bill's sponsors.

Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.; Jim Bunning, R-Ky.; and Richard Durbin, D-Ill., also are sponsoring the measure.

American manufacturers complain that the fixed Chinese exchange rate provides an unfair cost advantage to China's exports and is therefore costing thousands of U.S. jobs. The U.S. manufacturing sector has shed 2.7 million jobs over the last three years.

Manufacturers and lawmakers convinced Treasury Secretary John Snow to raise the issue with the Chinese government in a trip to Beijing last week. There, Snow unsuccessfully urged Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to drop the country's peg to the U.S. greenback.

China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994, and Wen told Snow that it is in both Chinese and U.S. interests to maintain the stability of the yuan, according to state media reports.

The National Association of Manufacturers, the top lobbying group for U.S. factories, praised Snow for his rhetoric in Beijing last week, but said that China's response was inadequate.

"China needs to take this issue seriously and move quickly to end the undervaluation of the yuan and allow markets to determine the currency's value, rather than government intervention," said Jerry Jasinowski, president of NAM.

The U.S. business community is not unanimous in its support for making Chinese goods more expensive to Americans.

The senators and manufacturers want "to increase the cost of T-shirts to American consumers to punish the Chinese. The logic there escapes me," said Willard Workman, senior vice president of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

"I understand their frustrations ... (but) it escapes me what economics course they took," Workman said, "if you want be the Grinch that stole Christmas, then raise tariffs on imports from China."

Schumer and Graham acknowledged that the legislation is a political move that may never become law.

"My hope is that we'll never get to the bill, because this hopefully will be addressed," said Graham.

Schumer said the bill is designed "to get everybody's attention."

The issue could become fodder in the 2004 presidential race, as both parties are increasing the rhetoric against China.

"The political forces behind this bill are unusual, probably will never be duplicated again, but that shows you how deep the problem is," said Graham.

Snow is not the only one reluctant to back the tariff measure after increasingly tough rhetoric against the Chinese government.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., who is running for the Democratic nomination for president in the 2004 race for the White House, last month joined Schumer and Dole in urging the Treasury chief to talk tough with officials in Beijing but did not co-sponsor the tariff legislation.

"He has not had a chance to decide whether he will support the bill, but he may," said Casey Aden-Wansbury, spokeswoman for Lieberman, former Vice President Al Gore's running mate in 2000.

Corbett B. Daly covers the White House and the Treasury Department for CBS MarketWatch in Washington.

Socrates964
(09/09/2003; 19:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108417)
Au/Ag
Sir Gandalf, have just been perusing your P&Fs.

Gold objective remains $424 as previously stated.

Silver = $6.02 (4.82 + (8*3*0.05)).

Thought for the day:

One of my trading teachers has frequently noted that the sure way to tell that a rally is ending is to publicly advocate an aggressive short and observe whether the volume of abusive E-mails/phone calls goes up. (Bill Murphy does something similar with hits on his site).

If this rule is correct, the broad equity indices are close to rolling over.

Liberty Head
(09/09/2003; 20:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108418)
Funny Ha Ha Money

Sometimes all you can do is laugh about it.

Why are we getting redesigned fiat notes?
To protect us from counterfeit notes, of course.
This is the reason offered by the same folks who have "this thing called a printing press" and have suggested they would "drop money from a helicopter" if needed. Now they would have us believe counterfeit bills are a threat.

Someone call 911. Ah Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

I think we all know who the real counterfeiters are. ;-)

Best Wishes
Flaccus
(09/09/2003; 20:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108419)
From Bill Muphy's report today......
http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.comPossible tie-in to my info there is a 4.6 billion dollar gold buyer out there:

post at Newmont board at Yahoo

... no testing its veracity.

I just spoke to a very good and long time friend of mine who is a trader at the COMEX. He's been a trader there for many years. Told me tonight that for the past week or so, there's been chatter on the floor about a absolutely massive buyer working the pits as quietly as possible, probing the market to see if there is any size offered and at what levels. His instinct is that the buyer behind this is possibly the largest the floor has seen in years. He spoke with several floor traders representing commercials today and the word is going around that the commercials are getting quite nervous because they sense that the dynamics of the market have changed due to the persistent massive buyer. He said the tension is extremely high on the floor and he can't remember when things have been this "interesting" in many years. He said that he and some other smart traders he knows are playing things close to the vest at this level and taking advantage of dips to buy common stocks in the $HUI especially the smaller cap names, as well as buying long contracts on the metal on short-induced dips.

Thought the board would find this interesting.

Paper Avalanche
(09/09/2003; 20:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108420)
@ Goldbug 1
Thanks for the extremely informative post. Good luck. I guess that you will take those valuable FRN's and invest them in a savings / brokerage account. If you get the rate of interest in a savings account you will yield a whopping 1%. However, people typically save for retirement. If you are gainfully employed, you will notice your employee-paid cost of health insurance increasing 15-20% annually. Stay with me here (in case you are math deficient), you will actually lose spending power by keeping your dollars, the product of your labor, in dollars in a "savings" account with a bank. In order to keep up with the 15-20% rate of increase in the cost of that which will be most important to you in 10, 20 or 30 years from now you need to store the product of your labor in something other than a dollar denominated savings account.

Best of luck to you. Please tell your boss that similar posts only provide active posters on this forum to educate new members rather than allow similiar postings to sow seeds of doubt among those seeking the truth.

Take care.

PA
Pizz
(09/09/2003; 20:31:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108421)
Paper Tigers (pun intended)
Sometimes you wonder whether the collected brain power of all elected and appointed officials would cover the head of a pin (Ron Paul excluded and maybe a few others).

Who's brilliant idea was it to try to strong arm China. Let's hope they have a bit of a sense of humor. Last time I checked we had a small problem trying to fill the seats at the last treasury auction, and we threaten one of the larger buyers with tariffs??? Kind of like being past due to you're bookie and threatening to miss a payment unless they lower the vigorish. . . .oh well, I guess we just keep throwing paper at them and they're bound to get hurt, except for the fact that they just might have a bit more physical than we think, or at least enough to soften the blow. . .

---------------------------

Been reading some about all the parallels between now and 1987 with regards to the bond and stock market situation. The bull camp keeps saying that there are too many puts open on stocks to have any correction and that because of all the puts, there is a floor under the market. Well if the put writers are the ones buying stocks to support their derivatives position, they better hope they're right. Cause if they aren't, not only will they have to unload the stock they are buying in support, but they will have to go short to hedge their written puts -- kind of like a double whammy, and that is what crashes are made of. . . and they're in this position trying to bust the neckline of the largest head and shoulders SM formation in history, a few days away from 911 anniversary, and the government trying to borrow more money in the shortest time frame in the history of the world. Knee deep in gasoline and reaching for a smoke - say friend have you got a light???

----------------------------

Side note on selling residental real estate into a soft market - not fun.

-------------------

Pizz

Liberty Head
(09/09/2003; 20:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108422)
Father Forgive Me, I Have Lusted For Gold

More funny stuff:
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. markets headed in all directions on Tuesday, with stocks and the dollar taking a beating, while bonds got a boost from an impending treasury auction and the lust for gold continued.

----

So, it's a lust thing. :-)

Oh my cheeks hurt from all the laughter today.


mikal
(09/09/2003; 22:00:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108423)
@Liberty Head
"Father forgive me, I have lusted after gold." Didn't you know, there is no penance for that minor sin? The church priests will hear your confession thogh, if it makes you feel better.
These days more writers are actually projecting their own feelings for Au, perhaps subconsciously, while openly engaging the reading audience with their newfound and newly applauded obsession, instead of flogging a dead horse- laying on the sanctimonious "barbarous relic" or "hoarder" guilt-trip tagging.
Druid
(09/09/2003; 22:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108424)
Paper Avalanche (9/9/03; 15:58:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 108405)
Druid: PA, I think you and many others at this fine forum are so on target that USAGOLD101 should be offered at every major institution of higher learning. My best guess is that the sheep will be herded toward the paper via the tried and true formula of the NASDOG(where old metrics of rational valuation are discarded for a new paradigm) and will then be sheered by the WORLD PLAYERS(old & smart money) as delusion transitions to reality. Strap in ladies and gents, this could be a rough ride.
steady
(09/09/2003; 23:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108425)
rhodium
go to ask jeves type in how do i purchase rhodium and bingo up pops a great place to buy it from. id post teh link but they sell precious metals so no advertising for them . sometimes u have to do your own work! all 35 seconds of it ! whew!
bugs
(09/09/2003; 23:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108426)
optimism..
I'm all for optimism, but it seems a bit much lately.

It's getting time to clean up a bit, imho. Probably I am wrong, but who cares.

bugs
(09/09/2003; 23:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 108427)
"Gold" bugs
Apologies for not doing the 15 minute google search, but I was wondering.. why are gold advocates are referred to as "Gold Bugs"?

Is that term a derogatory slant, or is it badge of honor, or both?

Of course, there is the old coinage of the term bug (no pun intended).. from Harvard or somewhere -- the moth that got caught up in the transistors in an early PDP machine or something.

I was just curious why gold people are called "bugs".

Does the term 'bug' represent defects in the financial mechanisms of the reality generator?
slingshot
(09/10/2003; 00:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108428)
Bugs Msg#108427
bug A fan or afficiando of a perticular interest. That interest being in favor or not in the popular trend.

Yo Ho,Yo Ho, A Goldbugs life for me.
Slingshot----------;0)
Aragorn III
(09/10/2003; 01:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108429)
Mr. bugs:
In history "goldbug" is a derision. Accepting proud ownership of this dusty title does not clear the air.

Follow the goldheart: choose instead the ownership of gold because there is found the true understanding of wealth and security as Substance, NOT as Concept.

got gold?
The Invisible Hand
(09/10/2003; 01:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108430)
King Aragorn III is back
Welcome back, Majesty.
Hope FOA follows His Majesty's example.
Great Albino Bat
(09/10/2003; 03:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108431)
Just a thought for this morning...

This is a confused and confusing world. "Things are not what they seem" is to be kept in mind by anyone who would aspire to understand events, even minimally.

In today's world, events CAN be produced at will, to guide opinion and thus make way for political strategies.

The series of blasts about a month ago, in India, which killed so many people, was blamed on Islamic terrorist elements. But WERE Islamists actually the ones setting off bombs? Might be, and then it might not be so.

Now we read that Ariel Sharon, the Israeli leader has been in India forging an alliance between Israel and India, against Islam.

This old bat speculates that such an alliance might have been furthered and brought within reach, by the drastic Islamic terrorist acts against India's population which I have mentioned. However, WAS IT actually Islamics who set off those explosions? Or was it......?

ON "GOLDBUGS"

Yes, the term "goldbug" is a term of derision.

Gold is not for weaklings and fools. It is for men, Herren, as the Germans would say. Let the fools babble and jeer. One day they will be saying, "Buddy, can you spare a dime?"

Edgar Allan Poe, that strange genius of American literature, wrote a short story ("The Goldbug" if I am not mistaken) back in the mid-19th Cent., about the finding of a treasure. The story included a coded message which contained, for effect, the requirement that a gold-colored beetle, the "goldbug", be lowered on a string through the eye of a skull on a branch. The spot on the ground touched by the gold-bug, would be the spot to dig for the treasure.

This is where the term "goldbug" originated.

Today, no need to dig for buried treasure. Plenty of it, here at USAgold, and - still so cheap! Gold for paper - what a bargain!

Guano from the GAB on Bald Mountain.



Boilermaker
(09/10/2003; 03:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108432)
China's Trade Balance
Here's a news item that I found surprising:

China Jan-Aug exports jump 32.5 pct yr/yr
Tuesday September 9, 11:03 pm ET

BEIJING, Sept 10 (Reuters) - China's exports in August were $37.4 billion, up 27.2 percent over a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday.
August imports rose 27.3 percent over a year earlier to $34.6 billion, creating a monthly surplus of $2.8 billion, the ministry said on its Web site at www.mofcom.gov.cn.

In the January-to-August period, exports rose 32.5 percent over a year earlier to $265.8 billion while imports were up 40.6 percent at $256.9 billion.

The surplus in the first eight months was $8.86 billion, down 50.4 percent from a year earlier.


comment;
If these numbers are accurate it's no wonder that Snow got the bums rush in Bejing. China's reported monthly and cumulative 2003 trade surplus is miniscule according to these numbers and a revaluation would put them in the red. But, I'm thinking that they probably cook the export/import books to justify their trade position or maybe they count t notes as imports or they're importing a ton-a-day Swiss gold. Any other thoughts here?
misetich
(09/10/2003; 06:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108433)
The Prince and Putin - Will Saudi's investments flow to Russia?
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/09/10/006.htmlSnip:

The arrival of Saudi Arabia's de facto leader in Moscow has therefore been seen as evidence of the beginning of a Saudi realignment.

Such speculation is probably justified, but it remains to be seen how far this realignment will go. After all, the Saudis have been putting all their eggs in one basket, so to speak, for some time. Saudi investments and bank deposits in the United States are estimated at $400 billion to $600 billion, and this situation will not change overnight.
................
On Aug. 15, 600 relatives of those who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington filed a series of lawsuits in U.S. courts against three Saudi princes, eight Muslim charities and a number of Saudi companies, accusing them of financing al-Qaida. Total damages sought in the lawsuits amount to tens of billions of dollars, and it is possible that Saudi assets in the United States could be frozen if the courts rule in favor of the victims' families. According to reports in the Western press, Saudi oligarchs have already begun to pull their money out of the United States, though officially the Saudis deny this, dismissing the lawsuits as groundless.

Optimists in Russia believe that if things go well Saudi Arabia could redirect some $200 billion into the Russian economy in the near future. While such investment would be welcome, these are still early days. During Prince Abdullah's visit, the two countries agreed to work together to stabilize world crude markets. They also agreed to simplify the process of creating joint venture companies in the oil and gas sector.
...................
*************
Misetich

Where there's smoke there's fire - The pieces are being moved around the chessboard - It is interesting on how pivotal Putin role has been in cultivating Saudis disinchatement with US chessoboard moves into IRAQ - and disruptive forces in Venezuela to topple Chavez -
Ultimately OPEC could be the objective...

Lets stay tuned on this one - It is a certainty that Arabs money is nervous out there -

How much of it is being diverted into gold - PHYSICAL GOLD?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express




mikal
(09/10/2003; 06:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108434)
Freddie and Fannie folly
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3416985http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3416985Fannie, Freddie Oversight for Treasury?
Wed September 10, 2003 12:39 AM ET
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Snippitts:
"The Bush administration is widely expected to recommend to Congress on Wednesday that the U.S. Treasury assume regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reassure markets the mortgage finance companies do not pose a risk to the financial system."

"Freddie Mac acknowledges ignoring accounting standards while under-reporting earnings by $1.5 billion to $4.5 billion over 2000 to 2002 to push earnings into the future and sustain a reputation for steady earnings growth. The company replaced two chief executives in less than three months because of their ties to the irregularities, which are under investigation by regulators and law enforcement officials. Analysts say they expect lawmakers to hold off on imposing new capital requirements on the companies for five years. Critics say the companies should be required to hold more capital to buffer themselves better against risk."

"The administration will tread lightly with recommendations to change government oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The companies play a central role in U.S. housing markets where soaring home values have been one of the few economic consolations for Americans in the past three years as the rest of the economy has struggled. With the presidential election just over a year away and the economy a key concern for voters, the administration will be loath to say anything that could make mortgages more costly."
mikal
(09/10/2003; 07:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108435)
@misetich
Interesting stats on the Saudis.
Surely they're the highest profile Arab investors, so Turkey, Pakistan, Yemen, etc., do not evoke much discussion. Similarly to Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burma, Nepal, even India, etc. as if the globe could do without them.
Yet many Asians, particularly the Communists, are notoriously reticent with statistics, public or private, if they differentiate these sectors! All this, while U.S. universities maintain disproportionately large foreign enrollments. But for how long? How long can trade imbalances with western nations grow like a cancer?
Paper Avalanche
(09/10/2003; 08:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108436)
It's Official - The Last Shoes Will Drop in The Next 60 Days
This is from Mineweb:

"10 Sep 10:00
WGC gold fund set for October debut in London - Hale
MINEWEB - Economist David Hale stunned Gold Show participants herewith news that the World Gold Council's new exchange traded gold fund, Equity Gold, will launch in London at beginning of October, followed by New York at the end of the same month, Paris in early November and Hong Kong after that..."

The paper gold sponge is being put into place to soak up the onslaught of dollars seeking the ultimate store of value. The ETF will be trading in the NYSE by Halloween. The window of opportunity to buy gold at these ridiculously low prices is rapidly closing.

Take care all. It has been fun participating in the exchnage of ideas over the past couple of days.

PA
Ten Bears
(09/10/2003; 09:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108437)
Gold Funds
"Cranks are cranks until they are proven right" Mark Twain


"As a younger man, I thought of elderly sound money advocates as old cranks, however with the passage of time and considerable study, I have had the good fortune to join their ranks." Comment from a member of a tribal geezers association.

Some of the financial corporations that have grown up around the central bank and some trade associations are now tripping over each other to offer "gold based investment opportunities" to retail investors. I am not convinced that tack is to benefit true gold advocates. It is more likely that the investment vehicles will be used to steer potential gold buyers away from the real thing and into the same old market rig we have seen since the Greenspan era began. A lot of people taking losses on gold related investments cannot be good for real gold advocates long term. There should be plenty of opportunity for intermediate term profit.
Great Albino Bat
(09/10/2003; 09:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108438)
Paper Avalanche: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

We can't verify Fort Knox - who is going to supervise Equity Trust Fund investment in gold?

The ETF could get along perfectly well, with not more than 5% of its shareholders' money actually invested in gold.

If anyone wants to redeem his shares for gold, the process- you can be sure - will be involved and cumbersome. You would have to travel to NY, London, Paris or Hong Kong to redeem. (USAgold is straightforward; the reason: ETF has an agenda. USAGOLD has not.) You have to have at least $10,000 invested in ETF to qualify for redemption of your paper shares into physical.

5% gold in hand should be more than sufficient to satisfy possible redeemers.

The rest - 95% - can be "invested" in, for instance: "gold receivables" that are not collectible, and maybe some banks would like to have them off their books? After all, the IMF says "gold receivables" are as good as gold, so should the ETF take an unreasonable position, differing from that of the IMF? And you, miserable worm that you are as a private investor, who are you to object to the dictates of their sovereign majesties, the IMF? What is good enough for the IMF, is not good enough for YOU?

Or the ETF can go long on diverse exchanges, on futures, and then hedge them by going short, "just in case", which "protective" strategy, "looking after the welfare of the investors", would be similar to that of the miners hedging future production - "get a better future price, now" and that drags down future prices.

I am thinking that this ploy is subtle and we better understand clearly the implications. This ETF can act as a kind of barrier, rather similar to a barrier to a forest fire, where you cut down or even burn a swath of forest to prevent the fire from spreading further. "Fight gold, with gold".

Mark my words, the ETF will not be pro gold. It's a pabulum for the masses. If it works the way I fear it may work, then - look for another 25 years of controlled gold prices.

Will someone wiser than this GAB, please explain why these worries are unsubstantiated? The ETF is THE POWERS THAT BE, make no mistake. This is not the "free market" at work! The whole aim of this worldwide thrust is to preserve the status quo, which is, PAPER. If my views are mistaken, I will be most happy to recognize my mistakes.

The GAB
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/10/2003; 09:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108439)
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Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 10:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108440)
Sir Rich --- The Bullish Catapult Breakout description is defined as ----
http://stockcharts.com/support/pnfAlerts.htmlAT THE ABOVE LINK ----> Bullish Catapult Breakout

---------------------------X <-- bullish catapult breakout
triple top breakout -->--X X
---------------------X X XOX
--------------------OXOXOXOX
--------------------OXOXOXO
--------------------OXOXO

A triple top breakout followed by a double top breakout is recognized as a bullish catapult breakout. The implication is that there was supply at the triple top level that was keeping prices from going up, but the triple top breakout took some of that supply away. Prices then retraced, allowing more buyers to create demand which continued to power the up move in prices.
===
See Sir Rich --- there some "fundamentals" included in the TA results of charting !
LOTS more to learn in P&F charting !
<;-)
TownCrier
(09/10/2003; 10:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108441)
WGC's Rhona O'Connell on today's gold market
http://www.gold.org/"Gold fixed at a new high for the year yesterday afternoon in London, although the intraday high (towards $389/ounce, February 5th) was not breached. The market has developed independent momentum of its own, reflecting continued uncertainty over the dollar, the sustainability of the US recovery and by implication the level of the equity markets, the vicissitudes of the bond market and geo-political considerations in the Middle and Far East.

"All of these are conspiring to draw fresh funds into gold despite the record net long position on COMEX and some dealers are iterating the view that the new interest appears to be more from risk-averse longer-term holders than those who trade between sectors on a short term basis.

"That said, there is selling appearing at these levels and the market actively traded a narrow range between $380 and 384/ounce in New York before a quiet session in Asia. It is testament to the change in market sentiment that a year ago, an intra-day range of $4/ounce would have been described as "wide".

"Dealers are commenting that last night's close $381.50 bid is bang on important resistance; today's trading is therefore potentially significant."
admin
(09/10/2003; 10:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108442)
MK's Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

New Stein.

The London Bullion Market Association's "A Summary of Gold Market Opinions on the Central Bank Gold Agreement" pdf file

___________

"Argentina defaulted on its IMF loans yesterday saying that it would not jeopardize its reserves in order to pay its debt. Now, it is being reported, Argentina and the IMF are close to an agreement. Argentina devalued its currency last year, froze its citizens' savings and defied western banking interests by defaulting on billions in debts. Thereafter, the peso lost another 67 percent of its value and there seems to be no relief in sight. That, my fellow goldmeisters, is as good an argument as I can make in behalf of private gold ownership."
Melting Pot
(09/10/2003; 10:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108443)
Alan Greenspan, Come Home
http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/greenspan_home.htmSNIPS:

I came across an old article of yours, Mr. Greenspan, and wondered what you would say about it today. It's called "Gold and Economic Freedom." [1] I found it fascinating and would like to review a few of its main points with you.*****

Recall also how former IRS commissioners have spoken out against the income tax. Though most suggest replacing it, at least one identified it for what it was: a page out of Karl Marx. "The income tax] is written into the Communist Manifesto," said IRS Commissioner T. Coleman Andrews. "Maybe we ought to see that every person who gets a tax return receives a copy of the Communist Manifesto with it so he can see what's happening to him." [2]

You might recall, the fifth plank of the Manifesto pushes for a central bank such as the Federal Reserve. G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve, believes the Fed is so devious the government could operate without collecting any taxes whatsoever. One of the reasons it does collect taxes is to keep taxpayers from looking too closely at the Fed. [3]

But you could get them to look if you said the right words. Stand by your article, Mr. Greenspan, and stand up for gold.

http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/greenspan_home.htm

Gold and Economic Freedom
by Alan Greenspan

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

Two great reads!

Big battles taking place in gold pits today! Tic, Tic, Tic...

Paper Avalanche
(09/10/2003; 10:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108444)
@ GAB
Greetings Sir GAB! I too have wondered what the intent is of TPTB by the release of the ETF. I believe that there are two possibilities (that I have been able to discern so far):

1. The ETF is a vehicle by which the POG wil be controlled in a similar fashion as futures contracts have been used to control POG for the past two decades.

2. The ETF is a vehicle by which TPTB intend to revalue physical (that they hold 99% of) such that all of the dollars that have since flowed into the stock and bond markets are able to participate in the impending stratospheric POG rise. This second theory assumes that TPTB want POG to rise to the moon and want a way to have their citizens participate as well as possibly provide another vehicle by which central / bullion banks can offset their position.

I lean toward the second theory (and it is only my guess) in that to assume that thoery #1 is correct is to also assume that the rest of the world wants to retain the dollar standard as the world reserve currency for the next two decades. The introduction of the Euro contradicts that assumption. I simply think that the US/British banks recognize the inevitable and are putting the tools in place to go along with the other 5.7 billion people of the world who are rediscovering gold as the ultimate wealth asset. Additionally, to subcribe to theory #1 is to ignore the rampant printing of dollars by the UST and the consequential inflation that must / will follow. I just do not see the rest of the world continuing to subsidize an unsustainable debt load that the US has taken on since we walked away from the Bretton Woods accord in 1971 (if my memory serves me, the Euro was conceived that same year as an alternative to what the French referred to as the US's "exhorbitant privilege" of being able to print the reserve currency at will and consume all of the rest of the world's productivity / commodities).

I think that the die is cast and that the ETF is simply a vehicle by which the dollar faction will be allowed to unwind it's short position in gold.

Do you envision any alternative theories to the two above?

PA
Paper Avalanche
(09/10/2003; 10:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108445)
Isn't Sweden a major oil producer? Article on Sweden / Euro
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A53976-2003Sep10?language=printerBelgian, I would be curious to get your take on this.

PA
Clink!
(09/10/2003; 10:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108446)
@ PA
You're thinking of Norway.
C!
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/10/2003; 10:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108447)
Sweden as a oil producer
No - we do not produce a drop. just consuming.

NEMO
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/10/2003; 11:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108448)
Oil in Sweden
To be precise - we did produce oil during WW2.
That is - oil from oil shale. I think the gov. run a couple of cars on that production. Today we have a couple of cars
running on rape-oil.
Does probably not qualify us to join the OPEC.

NEMO
ge
(09/10/2003; 11:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108449)
@GAB
Private Chinese/Asian demand can drive this bull market single-handedly as Mr. Kosares has pointed out. I think postponing the bull is out of question. Banks dumping their "bad gold paper" into this fund is a real possibility as you say. Alternatively they may buy physical for their own account using other people's money, leaving their customers to confront a dysfunctional Comex when the pandemonium breaks. No doubt there are many possibilities...Just thinking aloud.
Melting Pot
(09/10/2003; 11:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108450)
Let's hear it for the White House speech writers!
http://tvnewslies.org/html/terror_trap.htmlIn the fifteen minutes of shame enjoyed by George W. Bush last night, the terror trap for the American psyche was expertly oiled and sprung. In that short time, speech writers had given the president an opportunity to utter the word "terror," in some form, TWENTY SEVEN times! Do the math: that's 1.8 times every single minute. Then throw in "Al Qaeda," � uttered three times, and another three references to the 9/11 attacks, - and the deed was done. Steadily, repetitiously and unashamedly, - the line between the war on Iraq and the war on terror was eradicated. Karl Rove's non sequitur strategy went off without a hitch: the invasion of Iraq was justified, the pundits applauded, and the people trembled.

Terror sells! Hit �em hard!

http://tvnewslies.org/html/terror_trap.html

Every time the US markets are in trouble and gold begins to rise the terrorist threat is unleashed upon the sheeple. Its not working a-n-y-m-o-r-e.......

See also
www.archives.gov/federal_register/executive_orders/2003.html

for executive order #13303, in which Bush exempts himself, Cheney, and their minionsfrom any legal action, regardless of what they choose to do with Iraq�s oil.

You ever notice that every time Dubya talks, the markets tank and gold rises? Maybe I'll build a chart for future investing based upon Presidential appearances. LOL
makcumka
(09/10/2003; 11:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108451)
The pimps and the trolls
Caught a glimpse of CNBC today during lunch... They had some senator as a guest, discussing the Chinese Yuan. The senator had suggested that the Yuan is the reason for all manufacturing job losses in the US because the Chinese government had been involved in manipulating the price of the Dollar on the world markets by keeping Yuan pegged artificially low to the Dollar.

Now thinking outloud...

That must be the reason for the commodities price increase. After all, if the Yuan was valued at par with the Dollar, oil would be around $4 per barrell and gold would be around $50 per ounce. (8 times cheaper). This will certainly answer all energy crisis problems and end world hunger, since the price of wheat will be so cheap, it's not even funny.

So, if the Chinese kept Yuan low, did it allow the terrorists to buy weapons to fight against the US with overvalued dollars? Is there an Al Queda - China link? Or have the Chinese exploited their population by undervaluing their labor, thus driving them into poverty? Can we ask the UN to take military action to free the Chinese people so they can fully enjoy the fruits of their labor, as the Yuan is valued at par with the Dollar?

What I would give right now to have a nice pile of FRNs to exchange for the shiny yellow stuff...
Great Albino Bat
(09/10/2003; 11:54:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108452)
Paper Avalanche: Interesting views...can you elaborate?
You wrote, regarding ETF, that one purpose might be to

"provide another vehicle by which central / bullion banks can offset their position" Could you, perhaps, be a little more specific. This is not criticism, it is a sincere desire to understand what you are saying.

Then again:

"the ETF is simply a vehicle by which the dollar faction will be allowed to unwind it's short position in gold."

How would that be accomplished?

I really do wish that the ETF were good news. So many years of witnessing only wickedness and deception, have made me very skeptical of any supposedly good news, such as capitulation of the US/UK financial block to gold. They are resolutely opposed to "going quietly", in my opinion.

I hope I am wrong!

The GAB
steady
(09/10/2003; 11:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108453)
folly? the original folly!
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1509erasmus-folly.htmlive been seeing lots of folly lately./a good read!

ORATION: An Oration of Feigned Matter, spoken by Folly in her own Person

AT WHAT RATE soever the world talks of me (for I am not ignorant what ill report Folly has got, even among the most foolish), yet that I am that she, that only she, whose deity recreates both gods and men, even this is a sufficient argument, that I no sooner stepped up to speak to this full assembly than all your faces put on a kind of new and unwonted pleasantness. So suddenly have you cleared your brows, and with so frolic and hearty a laughter given me your applause, that in truth as many of you as I behold on every side of me seem to me no less than Homer's gods drunk with nectar and nepenthe; whereas before, you sat as lumpish and pensive as if you had come from consulting an oracle. And as it usually happens when the sun begins to show his beams, or when after a sharp winter the spring breathes afresh on the earth, all things immediately get a new face, new color, and recover as it were a certain kind of youth again: in like manner, by but beholding me you have in an instant gotten another kind of countenance; and so what the otherwise great rhetoricians with their tedious and long-studied orations can hardly effect, to wit, to remove the trouble of the mind, I have done it at once with my single look.

But if you ask me why I appear before you in this strange dress, be pleased to lend me your ears, and I'll tell you; not those ears, I mean, you carry to church, but abroad with you, such as you are wont to prick up to jugglers, fools, and buffoons, and such as our friend Midas once gave to Pan. For I am disposed awhile to play the sophist with you; not of their sort who nowadays boozle young men's heads with certain empty notions and curious trifles, yet teach them nothing but a more than womanish obstinacy of scolding: but I'll imitate those ancients who, that they might the better avoid that infamous appellation of sophi or wise, chose rather to be called sophists.

more of the original folly stuff at the link
Cytek
(09/10/2003; 12:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108454)
SNOW'S name is appropriate for what he does
U.S. job growth to return as economy rebounds-Snow
Wed September 10, 2003 12:52 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday job growth would resume when the U.S. economy recovers.
"Jobs are a lagging indicator," he said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

Meanwhile .....


3Com Exits Manufacturing, Cuts 1,000 Jobs

By Ben Klayman
CHICAGO (Reuters) - 3Com Corp. said on Wednesday it planned to cut about 1,000 jobs, or almost a third of its work force, and close its only remaining manufacturing plant as it works to counter weak technology spending.


International Paper to Cut 3,000 Jobs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - International Paper Co. said on Wednesday it will cut about 3,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its global work force, over the next year as part of its previously announced $1.5 billion profit improvement plan.
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 14:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108457)
Today's COMEX action on PAPER Gold !
Dec 03 COMEX Contract (GC3Z) Wednesday 9/10/03
Open $383.0 HIGH $384.2 low $379.6 Last $381.2
Settlement $381.1 Change -$1.7 Volume 47,530
Tuesday's Settle $382.8 OPEN INTEREST = 200,396
===
Looks like a lull in the storm to me.
Watch out for tomorrows action, as SPIKE and SPOT are well rested and Sir Sundeck sent me some fresh "Roo" meat!
<;-)
segel_flieger
(09/10/2003; 14:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108458)
Ramblings on Gold short positions
I see several posts here that postulate various mechanisms that Gold shorts might use to cover their positions. It's worth pointing out that Frank Veneroso is of the opinion that most of the outstanding Gold shorts associated with the hedging of Gold loans by the Central Banks have been transfered to the books of the Central Banks themselves.

If he is correct, the forces driving this Gold bull are a little different than how some see the situation;

1) There will be no Gold short covering panic as many have been anticipating.

2) The gold loaned by CBs is now effectively sold and the only way they can recover it is to buy it on the open market. (They have Gold loans and short derivative positions on their books. The Gold loans would mean they will receive Gold at some future date, while the short derivative positions mean they would have to deliver Gold at some future date. The two positions offset each other.) So technically, they haven't sold their Gold, but they have a position that is equivalent to having sold it.

3) This means the CBs have much less "ammunition" available to cap rising Gold prices that is commonly held. It will be a lack of pyhsical supply that will be responsible for rising Gold prices, not a buying panic triggered by short covering.

I personally hope Frank is right because it would mean that the coming Gold bull is much more likely to be an orderly one rather than a cataclysmic event. My feeling is that this would increase the chances that Gold will reclaim some sort of role in our current Monetary system.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/10/2003; 14:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108459)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
Black Blade
(09/10/2003; 14:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108460)
Cytek � Snow Job

It should be no surprise that John Snow is a known liar as well as a one time mediocre CEO of a railroad company and someone of questionable integrity. His touting of the "strong dollar policy" was laughable at best because there is no way in heaven or hell that there can be a "strong dollar policy" in an environment of "competitive currency devaluation" when unemployment is rising and manufacturing jobs are fleeing offshore. His recent pathetic groveling before the Japanese and Chinese was another embarrassment for what was considered the world's last remaining superpower.

Now his stupidity comes through once again as he gives us the Wall Street line that unemployment is unimportant because it's a "lagging indicator". This "lagging indicator" has been "lagging" for three years now! Besides the unemployment data is also an indictor of past, present, and future economic activity. Sure the data shows new claims for the prior week. It also shows the number of Americans currently unemployed and those collecting benefits. It also shows the economic activity and projections for the coming quarter. One must take the time to read the weekly report completely and not just focus on the prior week's new unemployment claims. Anyway, what can one expect from a politician and bureaucrat of limited intelligence? Paul O�Neill was no great Treasury Secretary either, but in my estimation John Snow has been a great disappointment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken as the Fed will create a flood of dollars to counter the devaluation of foreign currencies. After all, how much longer can Japan continue to buy the $billions of devaluing Treasury notes being offered at auction? China with 1.3 billion people can well afford to keep the Yuan currency pegged to the dollar at a ridiculously low rate as cheap labor abounds and US manufacturing seeks out lower costs. For the life of me I cannot understand the purpose of Mr. Snow's vacation to the Far East as there was nothing to be gained except to demonstrate the weak position of the United States. I can only think that the Japanese and Chinese monetary authorities were at most amused. The dollar is toast and will continue to weaken as it must as the Fed create a flood of dollars.

- Black Blade
Solomon Weaver
(09/10/2003; 15:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108461)
Someone needs to read the fine print.
http://www.exchangetradedfunds.com/From the brief description here.....it sounds like NEW fractional reserve gold to me.

Now, when one buys a stock share...the share is simply a representation of what one owns.

When one buys an index fund, are not these funds required to go to the market and actually purchase the underlying shares?

If DEMAND for REAL gold is increasing, why would the WGC not let that demand be satified by the movement of REAL gold?

I suggest that a disclaimer must be printed boldly on the bottom of any statement listing ownership of such equities.

NOTE: THE XYZ SHARES IN YOUR FUND ARE VALUED AT THE PRICE OF GOLD, BUT AS THESE SHARES MAY NOT BE REDEEMED FOR GOLD, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF THEIR ACTUAL VALUE.

Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver
(09/10/2003; 15:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108462)
Could this work??? The Gold-Gold carry trade.
Two Exchange Traded Funds

First Fund holds 10% REAL Gold

Second Fund holds 100% REAL GOLD

Short sellers borrow shares of First Fund, sell First Fund short and invest proceeds in Second Fund...since both funds trade closely with gold...they will not diverge much...the more First Fund issues new shares, the more are borrowed by short sellers who swap for Second Fund shares.

First Fund expands their shares (new money created) but short sellers of First Fund carrying the trade to Second Fund cause Second Fund to actually purchase REAL gold in the REAL market (with the proceeds the short sellers are depositing), as this is the Mandate of Second Fund.

The purchases of REAL gold by Second Fund cause the price of gold to rise, both funds increase in value (creating margin calls). Margin calls are satified posting actual capital (the first time the short sellers own money comes into play).....

Over time a large long position is built in the 100% backed fund and an equal short position is built in the 10% backed fund.

As more fiat monies move into the trade, First Fund will be able to more agressively expand its trading liquidity...eventually in a world where some spectrum of hundreds of such funds exist (the large liquid ones structured along the lines of First Fund, and smaller tighly held ones...speak Central Banks and private hedge funds) as gold demand runs higher, there comes a time when a minority of the funds actually hold the gold, and the other funds hold the paper....then the short sellers campaign at large to show the holders of all paper how the value of the funds should not be pegged to gold....but pegged to the amount of gold in the fund.....the First Fund types (where Joe Sixpack's Broker bought him shares) collapses, and the Second Fund types buy back their shorts.
Federal_Reserves
(09/10/2003; 16:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108463)
Glad Snow went to China
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^ssec&d=cHe had to give them fair warning to float their currency before we chop them off at the nuts, and slap a tariff on them, and then hand over the business to Mexico and South America, even take some heat off of JAPAN. Never made sense to give them the business anyway until the communist dictatorship running China country collapses like the USSR. You can see the US power elite that favored China policies visibly losing their grip as US/Mexico factories shutter and our unemployment lines grow. IMHO China could implode, their stock market has been in a downtrend for quite some time and their banks full of corruption and non-performing loans. ITs a bubble.









misetich
(09/10/2003; 16:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108464)
Health Insurance Premiums Up 13.9%
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51558-2003Sep9.htmlSnip:

Health insurance premiums for employees rose 13.9 percent in the past year, the biggest annual increase since 1990, according to a survey of employers released yesterday.
...............

Employers across the country attributed the higher premiums to increases in the cost of prescription drugs, hospital stays and physician services, and to efforts by health insurers to boost profits.
**********
Misetich

The costs of essential services (made at home) are rising - health, energy, food, housing

The double whammy rests with "deflation" vis a vis imported cheap goods from China, SE Asia, Japan

and asset deflation - re stocks

Of course ANOTHER headline in today's Washington Post Reads

"House Passes 4.1% Raise For Federal Employees "

Guess Price Deflators, CPI etc do not apply when you're voting for your own raise - it only applies to Seniors on minimum pension

(No deflation in sight at the ballooning DEFICIT)though on second thought maybe that is the whole game plan - A DEFLATING CURRENCY (US $) solves a lot of debt problems -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express


MK
(09/10/2003; 16:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108465)
A CALL TO CONTEST! A CALL TO CONTEST!! A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
Gandalf.....Ohhhh Gaaaaaaaaaadallf. Wizard of wizards. Bringer of the Profound. Contest Master of the Table Round. Here we are assembled in our Cause in Full Realization............Can we do something about those trumpets?? And now you've added cymbals and tambourines!! Someone! Someone, please tell them to hold it down. I know we get excited about these Contests here at this Mighty Oaken Table, but must we always have these infernal trumpets?? Who approved the rest of the noise makers?? You know my ears to be fragile, o wizardrous one......... What's that? The trumpets are "essential" you say? The Hobbits love the Trumpets?? But they'll negotiate the cymbals and tambourines?

All right, all right, we'll talk about it later, but can we put a cork in it for five minutes or so until I get this announcement out? Thank you, Gandalf. Thank you, Hobbits. Now...Where was I? The contest.....

Ahem....

Now about this Contest for our Fifth Anniversary.

The Question to Be Answered is This:

Since gold hit its low of $252 in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to the present price (in the $380 range).

Question: Is this significant rise enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?" Yes or No. If "Yes!" why so? If "No" why not?

Please enter headline in the subject box as follows:

******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.******** or ********The New Bull Market in Gold? No.*******

The winner of this essay contest will receive a one ounce US Eagle. There will two runners-up who will receive a Wilhelm II German 20 Mark each.

First time posters will receive a U.S. Silver Eagle for making their first post a contest entry. Once you make your post, please notify Marie (marie@usagold.com) of your first-time post entry. We will check names, so don't try to fool us on this one!!

The entry must consist of at least 25 words. All entries must be posted to the board by the Table Round's birthdate, September 20, 2003 at 12 noon Mountain Time.

ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract on Monday September 22nd. All entries must be posted by Sunday, September 21st at high noon Mountain Time. In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain 25 words on why you consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource.

Please surround your price guess with $$$$$$ dollar signs. The winner -- who will be the closest guess to the actual closing price -- will receive a one half ounce U.S. Eagle. There will be two runners-up prizes -- one British sovereign each.

Gandalf the White will serve as Contest (Wizard) Master......

Let the contest begin!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY O MIGHTY OAKEN TABLE OF YORE!!

What's all that noise in the corner of the Great Hall, my wizardrous friend. The Hobbits are dancing, you say? They're Happy?? They want the trumpets.....Please, hold off......let us make our exit post haste..........What's that you say, Marie? I have to pay the Royal Tambourine Maker for all the Hobbits' tambourines? I didn't know we had a Royal Tambourine Maker? What do you mean I've been in a oppressive mood all day........HA! I don't understand why we need a Royal.....

Voices fade down the corridor.

From deep in the bowels of the Castle comes the voice of the wizard.......

Good luck to ALLLLLLLL........











Cometose
(09/10/2003; 16:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108466)
JOBS?????????
Watched Gangs of NY last night with my 16 year old, Christopher ....(sad commentary on how things can get when an Economy starts to suck, watch out ) Christopher reminds me of the hero in TOP GUN....after his buddy died in the accident , Tom Cruise would go up on exercises but he would not engage....( no commitment, no hope , no why /reason)Christopher loves music and wants to write and play guitar songs. Christopher's little brother Josh who is 14 likes to play as well ; he is very good as well, but Christopher is impulive and right brained and Josh is linear and fits very well into the left brained school system. I recently had to split them up so Josh could have a better shot a growing up in a normal way .....sent Josh to have time out in Arkansas ( he follows Christopher too much; I told him that they were like matches and gasoline together) for a while.
Last week Christopher went to a party and introduced himself to a young lady who was married....and her husband and Christopher had an altercation..wherein the other young man broke a beer bottle on the side of Christopher's face and they got into it a little until Christopher realized he needed a hospital....He's fine now and everything's back to normal .....Guess his grandparents on my ex side heard about it and decided to send a GREETING CARD to console him... The following was the postscript....
"We love you very much ! Hope like your new school . Miss You ! Finish school only 2 or 3 years so you get education or you'll never get good job." They are retired....If they only knew......that in 2 or 3 years , there may not be any jobs......and if Christopher happens to do a Woody Guthrie with his guitar for the next ten years , he might be just fine ......did I tell you that Christopher isn't a worrier..
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 16:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108467)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !! The FIFTH Anniversary CONTESTS !!
YES, SIR MK, we know that the Essay Contest FIRST PRIZE is an one ounce USA GOLD Eagle !
(That is why the Hobbits are dancing !)
<;-)
steady
(09/10/2003; 17:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108468)
noisemakers,
MK. just wait till the hobbits start with there chant as gold rises! ZU BA ZOOM! ZU BA ZOOM! ZU BA ZOOM zubazoom! you wont be able to hear!
Belgian
(09/10/2003; 17:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108469)
Re:
@ PA: No oil in Sweden (NEMO)
Sweden (Denmark and UK) will change their mind on EU (EMU) if and when their respective currencies are/could be detoriating and they can't profit from EMU (euro) cover !

@ MP : I do remain very suspicious about the EGF (equity gold fund). Gold shouldn't be *paperized* !
If...IFFFF the gold-"statistics" (WGC-etc...) are correct and there is effectively a yearly shortage of 1,000 tonnes in the offer/demand equation...why must more physical gold for investment, be taken out of the market, with a new (?) paper-instrument ??? Why is the WGC organizing such a supposedly, promessing, gold-uptake when their funding goldmines still have more than 2,000 tonnes in forward sales (hedges) ???

etc...etc...
Paper Avalanche
(09/10/2003; 17:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108470)
@ GAB
After your last posting I spent quite some time trying to think how the ETF would allow the gold shorts (read "JPM") to cover their position. I came up with a number of possible scenarios / theories but none of them stood up to logic or reason. To that end, I humbly submit that, barring an explanation by another poster here on how such ETF vehicles may provide an "out" for the cabal, that I may have come to a hasty conclusion regarding the possible intent and use of the ETF by TPTB.

I am open to any thoughts, ideas or theories on why the ETF is now being rolled out to US, UK, France and Hong KOng over the next 60 days.

Being a recreational student of history, I cannot help but notice the similarity between:

a) the universal adoption of the ETF in said markets above and

b) when the industrialized nations of the world, within 12 to 24 months of each other all collectively decided on or around 1913 that it was time for each to institute a central bank. Thus the paper money concept was born without any alternative that might short circuit the plan.

Are we witnessing a comparable (and as significant) transition that we simply do not completely understand at this point.

With great respect to you,

PA
Goldbug 1
(09/10/2003; 19:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 108471)
Commercials Short Positions.
Can anyone with a better brain that mine put a positive spin on the following fact.
Net Commercials position is at its greatest Net Short position in the last 20 years.
Liberty Head
(09/10/2003; 20:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108472)
RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts
I won't claim to have a better brain than you or anyone else, none the less I'm willing to take a shot at your question.

Short positions are more speculative by nature.
Occassional pull backs in the POG are inevitable and frequently follow on the heals of a run up.

Secondly, shorts are children of debt and margin.
They seek the Land of the Lotus.
Leverage is the song of the Sirens here.
Many ships wreck in these waters.


Hold physical, go long and enjoy the show.


Best Wishes
erayboy
(09/10/2003; 20:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108473)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/dowgold1900log.gifSince April, 2001, GOLD has been in a NEW BULL MARKET. While there are many quantifiable measures to verify that fact, I offer the chart of the DOW/GOLD RATIO:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/dowgold1900log.gif

This clearly illustrates that the price of GOLD hit its low point at the same time the US stock market (as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials) was peaking. In this case, the ratio was equal to about 44; in other words, it required 44 ounces of GOLD to "buy" the DOW. Previous high ratio points occurred in 1929 (ratio equaled about 19) and 1966 (ratio equaled 29). Each time this ratio peaked and then turned down, it continued down until hitting a bottom wherein the price of the DOW was less than 2 ounces of GOLD.

This historical perspective is evidence that as previously, the mania in paper stocks and the revulsion of the barbaric relic, GOLD, peaks at the START of a GOLD BULL MARKET, and hits a low at the END. We have past the starting point and are now embarked on the next/current GOLD BULL.

QED.
a nation of one
(09/10/2003; 20:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108474)
the candle flame and POG
Naturally, as the Dark Knight of this gracious round table, I know some strange tales. One night recently a witch knocked on my castle's massive door. "You're a dark knight," she said, "so you are my friend." "Not really," I replied. "For me darkness is only a metaphor. I am not devoted to it like you are. And I never consort with witches." Nonetheless, she persisted. And since she was pretty, I let her in. I put her in the guest room that hangs out over the mote. She would be safe there and harmless. Before nightfall, as my guests sometimes do, she offered to display her knowledge of the Dark Powers. She took one of the dinner candles, and, placing it on the table in front of her, she stared at its flame intently and moved the palms of her beautifully-fingered hands, circling the flame with them pseudo-magically and chanting an incantation. "Watch the flame," she said, trying to sound mysterious, "I will lengthen it and shorten it just by thinking about it, with the power of my mind." And as she worked, the flame grew longer. It came back to its normal shape quickly, and then it got shorter. She glanced at me strongly, her left eyebrow lifting. "Ah!" She said. "Do you see? My powers over the darkness are very great." I said nothing, continuing to calmly drink my tea, which my cook, Herb, served after dinner. Having studied the greatest of all the Dark Arts -Science!- I understood perfectly what was happening. There was no draft in the place. Yet the flame shortened and lengthened in turns, seemingly without any reason. But of course there was a reason, and it wasn't witchcraft. The skill of this �witch� consisted solely of tricks she had learned in The Lonely Cad's School of Elegant Dark Magic, taught by that old, gray-haired rogue, the Wizard, Bam Boozle. The flame of any candle will flicker, if people are near, because there is breathing, and that moves the air, and it will also lengthen and shorten, given enough patience, especially if you hold your hands right, to form a chimney around it, which will enable an updraft, which will make the flame lengthen. Move your hands differently, and the flame will shorten. Get an intense expression on your face and appear to concentrate, while closing your hands around it, and the flame may get very long indeed, and your audience will be mesmerized. No magic was involved. Yet all my other dinner guests were enthralled. Betting commenced, on how long she could make the flame become, and how short, and how soon, and so on. Before the night was done, she had gathered some nice winnings. And before the dawn, so had I. �Now, here's the moral. When POG goes way up, then falls back, a number of things are possible. One of these possible things is a steadily decreasing oscillation, usually falling a bit lower from the previous high at each top, and recovering a bit higher at each subsequent bottom, forming what chartists call "a triangle." There is nothing mysterious about this. And there is nothing necessarily dark about the chartists. A triangle is merely one of the possible patterns of chart movement which humans can perceive -and which really can occur- particularly after a significant price movement. There are forces that cause it, and the main one of these is the behavior of people. Another factor is that stability in POG is not presently an aspect of its character, though there have been times when it has been, but this too is a function of human behavior. Whether POG has any behavior of its own, the answer must be no, it cannot. It is all caused by humans, one way or another. So now, as the triangle forms, and the trading pattern of POG narrows, what is likely to happen? Is the direction likely to change? Or is the direction likely to stay the same as before? It must be that the probability is greater that it will resume its movement in the same direction it was going before, and that a reversal, typically, is less probable. Because of this, it is naturally to be expected in most cases that POG, once having begun to form a triangle, will ultimately resume its movement in the same direction it was already going, and before the triangle is complete --that is, before the trading narrows to nothing, since it can't keep on narrowing forever and ever, because, if it did, it would form a horizontal line, and it doesn't do that, although, if you lived forever, sooner or later it probably would-- a point is always going to be reached where trading will cause it to extend out of the triangle in one direction or the other. There are a lot of people each of whom knows this. Many are eager. Right now sentiment is strong. Therefore the movement will probably also be strong. Given these conditions, the most likely result is that the price won't just extend out of the triangle, it will �pop� out. Then it may continue, or it may form another pattern, possibly a triangle. A triangle can be sort of like a breather, as commitments gather their forces. It can be like a breather, when traders are questioning. And it can be like a breather, when external events interrupt POG's movement, as has happened recently. POG is trading in at least two triangles right now. One goes back to the high of February, and the other goes back only to the early hours of this morning (Wednesday, September 10, 2003.) The former will have to extend out -and it will probably �pop� out- one way or the other before the end of the year, but it could move out sooner, perhaps even this week or next week. It can do this in several ways. And it could happen any time between now and then. That's why predicting it is iffy. The other triangle, today's, will have to end some time tomorrow, on Thursday. What it will do after that is uncertain, but it will probably go up to some extent (this is a guess based on what I've talked about here), and it could start another triangle, which would be good, because that would mean it is probably strengthening some more. That's what it did at the beginning of this year, on its way to around 390. The comparison of chart triangles to a candle flame is merely to show that even when things transpire in ways that are entirely natural, they are sometimes thought to be beyond the realm of human understanding, which -especially when within the boundaries of human activity- they are not. Anyway, the witch's name is Pollysandra, and she has decided to stay until the middle of next week. This morning she offered to clean the moat, which I think is a good sign. She has said nothing about the fact that all of my other dinner guests were historical figures which I had conjured to life entirely by means of my own imagination, and then injected them into her conscious awareness using my telepathy, solely for the purpose of my and her entertainment, for which I did not use any smoke or mirrors. Now that, in my estimation, is real magic.
DummyANI
(09/10/2003; 20:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108475)
Japanese commercial Banking default is likely becoming to appear
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/SNIP:
FSA To Beef Up Budget For Potential Bank Recapitalizations
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Financial Services Agency is ready to increase the budget for potential injections of public funds into undercapitalized banks by 2 trillion yen as part of a wider move to reinforce its ability to respond to a financial crisis

Comment:
.

Seeing Japan from outside, one cannot understand why Japanese Government is devaluating a Yen, for Japan has a large trade surplus. This is caused by the absolute size of a national economy.

Japan experienced land-bubble, stock-bubble, and bond-bubble at this sequence.
According to the land-bubble, 10 trillion dollars were disappeared. This is nearly 250 percent of GDP.
According to the stock-bubble, 8 trillion dollars were disappeared. This is nearly 200 percent of GDP.
Current size of Japanese stock market is only 3 trillion dollars.
According to the bond-bubble, 20 billion dollars are disappeared from June 2003 to September 2003.
Stock-adjustments about Bank-books have been finished between 1995 to 2003.
Japanese commercial Banks are selling their stocks, and they hold the minimum stock-shares at present
Foolish Japanese commercial Bankers bought Government Bonds to the 0.46 percent-yield, and at present they hold nearly 0.6 trillion dollars of JGB.
The size of JGB-market is nearly 6 trillion dollars. This is nearly 150 percent of GDP.
On the other side, Japanese trade surplus is between 2 percent and 3 percent of GDP. This is very small problem from a national financial view.
Japanese land-bubble has not been adjusted at all by the Government, and the net loss of commercial banks is predicted at nearly 1 trillion dollars in book-keeping.

Very dark Yen perspective. Buy a gold, sell a Yen. D-ANI.
Husky
(09/10/2003; 20:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108476)
Goldbug 1 - Commercials Short Positions
Sure. The Commercials are also dead wrong once every 20 years or so. Your clue that this is the case right now is that their position is so unusually large. Things are not normal - so why should we ignore that fact and conclude that they are normal?
turkey hunter
(09/10/2003; 20:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 108477)
Market can take tad rise in bank sales
http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/11Sep2003_biz76.htmlA small rise in bullion sales under any successor to the current European Central Bank Gold Agreement could be absorbed by the gold market, a survey of market participants has found..........

erayboy
(09/10/2003; 20:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108478)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CPI-Gold.htm

An objective assessment of the PRICE OF GOLD is required to determine if we are, indeed, in a NEW BULL MARKET. In order for GOLD to be in a BULL MARKET CYCLE, it must achieve a LOW PRICE and then rise for about a decade. The determination of the LOW PRICE POINT is required to determine if the BULL MARKET has begun.

The PRICE OF GOLD has varied greatly in the past. In order to smooth some of the fluctuations, let's employ a chart of the "CPI ADJUSTED GOLD PRICE" (bottom of the page):
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CPI-Gold.htm

It indicates that while the PRICE OF GOLD was relatively stable from about 1810 to 1910, it varied greatly during several cycles in the 20th century. The low of 1923-29 to the high of 1935-40 was the first BULL MARKET CYCLE. The low of 1970 to the high of 1980 was the second BULL MARKET CYCLE. I will show that the low of 2001 marked the beginning of the third/current BULL MARKET CYCLE IN GOLD.

Using rough approximations, the decade prior to the BULL MARKET CYCLES was characterized by a drop in the PRICE OF GOLD. In the first cycle, it dropped from about ~$600+ to ~$200, a ratio of ~3. In the second cycle, it dropped from ~$500 to ~$200, a ratio of ~2.5. In the third cycle, it dropped from ~$800 (excluding the spike) to ~$250, a ratio of ~3.

As can be seen from the first two cycles, a ratio of previous HIGH to the starting point LOW must be on the order of 2.5 to 3. The LOW achieved in 2001 meets that criteria with a ratio of ~3.

Please note that once achieving the LOW POINT in the cycle, the price has historically risen to the final price through a series of steps. However, having risen 50% from the LOW POINT, it has never revisited that LOW POINT. We have already risen 50% above the low of 2001. Therefore, it can be concluded that since we have achieved an acceptable LOW PRICE POINT and risen sufficiently above that point, that we have, indeed, entered a new/current BULL MARKET CYCLE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD. Furthermore, we can expect the price to continue to rise through the end of this decade.

QED.






mikal
(09/10/2003; 21:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108479)
@ANOO
Do you think you could enlist Pollysandra to clean the moat around the FED bldg? Maybe she could get someone to come clean on how much gold has left Fort Knox.
With your telepathy, have you sensed that she has the Midas Touch or any relation to Dame Fortune or Lady Luck?

a nation of one
(09/10/2003; 21:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108480)
to mikal

No way! She ain't leavin' here till she's done.
a nation of one
(09/10/2003; 21:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108481)
to mikal

As for Lady Luck, she may be. There has been a shift in the winds of fortune around here lately.
DummyANI
(09/10/2003; 21:39:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108482)
RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts msg#: 108471
http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.htmlAnother aspect of Commercial Shorts

GDP of USA is nearly double of Japan.

Open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, that of COMEX is 380 tonnes at present.

A national economy is growing over past twenty years. If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 886 tonnes.

D-ANI.
DummyANI
(09/10/2003; 21:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108483)
RE: Goldbug 1 Commercial Shorts msg#: 108471 -2
http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.htmlAnother aspect of Commercial Shorts (I am sorry COMEX data is updated)

GDP of USA is nearly double of Japan.

Open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, that of COMEX is 850 (this data right) tonnes at present.

A national economy is growing over past twenty years. If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 886 tonnes.

Last Feb., open interest of TOCOM soared 495 tonnes, the trading volume was 525 tonnes per day.(Feb. 05,2003)

If Japanese gold-futures ratio to GDP is applied,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 990 tonnes, its trading volume will be 1050 tonnes per day at a peak.
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 22:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108484)
Official FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS rules ! <;-)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. has issued a "CALL to CONTEST" ---
TWO Contests for our celebration of the Fifth Anniversary of the USAGOLD Forum !!
TWO separate Contests ---- An Essay writing Contest, and a POG Guessing Contest !!
TWO separate groups of GOLDEN Winning Prizes to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!

The ESSAY CONTEST is a short ESSAY answering statement of at least twenty-five words.
Based on the history of: Since gold hit its low of $252. in April of 2001, it has risen nearly 50% in value to the present price (in the $380 range) ---

Question: Is this significant rise enough to label what we are experiencing NOW the beginnings of a LONG-TERM bull market in gold?" "Yes or No?" If "Yes!" why so? If "No" why not?

The best, "ANSWER to either "YES", or "NO" ESSAY wins an one ounce U.S. GOLD Eagle, while two "Runners-up" will both receive an old Wilhelm II German 20 Mark Goldpiece.

IN ADDITION --- All Essay Contest Entries from "First time Forum posters" will receive an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle for making their first post a contest entry. Once you make your post, please notify Marie via email at (marie@usagold.com) of your first-time post entry, and supply Real Name and shipping address for the Silver Eagle. We will check the list of names, and the memory of the Ol�e Wizard, so don't try to fool us on this one!!

Remember the entry must consist of at least 25 words. All entries must be posted to the board by the Table Round's Birthdate, September 20, 2003, at 12 noon Mountain Time, AND only one entry will be accepted per poster.

ALSO A PRICE GUESSING CONTEST!!

In addition we will have a price guessing contest on the closing price of gold for the December Comex contract on Monday September 22nd, TOGETHER WITH a short statement of, "Why you consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource."

The POG Contest winner -- who will have the closest price guess to the actual closing price -- will receive an
one-half ounce U.S. GOLD Eagle. There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an old GOLDEN British Sovereign.

====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) Decembr 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of Monday, the 22nd of September, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $390.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$$390.0$$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON (12:00) on Sunday, September 21st, 2003.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, ---- as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- In order for your entry to be valid, it must contain 25 words on "Why you consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource!!! <===== NOTE !!!
---
LET the CONTESTS begin !
<;-)
mikal
(09/10/2003; 22:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108485)
@DummyANI
I doubt U.S. GDP is double Japan's GDP. The U.S. exaggerates GDP by using an exclusive(not international) accounting standard similar to pro forma corporate accounting. Some GDP tricks: including government expenditures and inflating capital expenditures up to 4X using the "deflators" argument.
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 22:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108486)
I KNEW IT !!!!! ------ ANOO is ALSO a Wizard !!!
a nation of one (9/10/03; 20:16:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 108474)
the candle flame and POG
===
and a Great Storyteller also.
Thanks
<;-)
mikal
(09/10/2003; 22:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108487)
Surplus of fraud for the fat cats
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr091103.shtmlSURPLUS OF LIES AND TAX CUTS
By: Ed Henry -Excerpts:
"When they had them, Republicans and Democrats alike were anxious to tell you what great things they had accomplished, but no one told you where the surpluses came from. That was a big secret."

"Surpluses have not "disappeared" as so many of the spin doctor propagandists want you to believe. Since 1983, when payroll taxes were excessively increased, American workers have been paying substantially more than either Social Security or Medicare need annually.
The same is true of many other entitlements, except that some, like Unemployment, are drawing heavily on their bogus bonds in their bogus trust funds and the public is again paying a tax that was paid previously by employers but stolen. We are being double billed right now, today.
Social Security alone, your payroll taxes, produced a $98.7 billion surplus in fiscal 2001 and an $89 billion surplus in fiscal 2002 despite high unemployment; i.e., fewer workers contributing. All stolen by the Beltway Bandits.
The same CBO "testimony" of January, 2001, predicted a $3.7 trillion surplus from entitlements over the next decade. George W. Bush has done nothing to reduce these taxes.
While most economists agree that consumer spending is one of the keys to economic recovery, George W. Bush has done little to put money in the average man's pocket. All he ever had to do was cut payroll taxes and it would have put more than a hundred billion per year back into the economy. Do you think $105 billion in the hands of workers in fiscal 2002 would have stimulated the economy?
He could also have cut other entitlement overcharges that, combined with Social Security and Medicare, amount to about $150 billion to $200 billion a year ripped off and spent by the government.
Instead, the federal government continues with its game of pretending to "borrow" this money in a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, Tyco and other private sector crooks look like children at play. The fraud and deceit involved here totals $2.8 trillion, 42 percent of the national debt. The entire "Intragovernmental Holdings" portion of the debt is fraudulent and composed of nothing more than double taxation markers with interest added.
This is the major problem, but the Bush administration has produced even more economic instability.
Fiscal Irresponsibility
After cutting taxes and knowing the nation was in recession because the stock market investment bubble had burst, fully aware that tax receipts for the coming years would be less, the Bush administration went right ahead a planned for even larger budgets.
In fiscal 2002, when Bush's own Office of Management and Budget (OMB) predicted that receipts would be $1.85 trillion, the administration went right ahead and planned a budget of $2.01 trillion.
In fiscal 2003, the OMB predicted receipts of only $1.84 trillion, even less than the preceding year, but the Bush administration went ahead with a $2.14 trillion budget, $130 billion more than last year.
Any other organization faced with the same shortfalls would be cutting expenses, employees, and discretionary spending, but not the federal government. They pretend to have no waste and simply plan to borrow whatever additional money they want. And they call it "running a deficit" and treat it as though it was no problem.
Originally, when the budget was approved, the Bush administration was planning to run a $304 billion deficit, but that changed when receipts were even less than expected due to increasing unemployment and a sluggish economy.
Just a few weeks ago, we were told that the deficit for fiscal 2003 would be around $455 billion, but that also changed due to another unforeseen circumstance.
The bond market is having troubles. The government finds itself unable to legitimately borrow as much money as the borrowholics would like. Investors are less willing to loan the government money under what has been described as "the perfect storm" in the bond market. Now, the deficit is predicted to be closer to $400 billion and most of the back room researchers are putting next year's anticipated deficit of $475-to-$500 billion on the monitors for millionaire news readers like Wolf Blitzer to mouth for you.
Hey, no one should have expected the bond market and the government's unique ability to borrow honestly from investors to last forever. Eventually, these investors realize that it's the taxpayers who must pay them back and the people are about tapped out. When they no longer feel that treasuries are "the safest investment in the world" they will invest elsewhere. Other than offshore investment, this could be the reason Wall Street seems to be doing better today.
Are we on the road to federal bankruptcy? As of Friday, September 5th, the national debt has gone up $584 billion. That's the real deficit because it includes the money stolen from entitlements (above) and we've still got more than three weeks to go in the fiscal year. Greenspeak is strangely silent on all of this."

"George W. Bush is being very miserly with the billions he's borrowed and now wants $87 billion more to carry on the war on terrorism. And Congress is about to vote themselves a pay increase.
It would be funny if it wasn't so nauseating. And most local governments still don't blame Bush and his henchmen for their predicament. It's a classic case of the emperor's clothes."
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 22:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108488)
$$$$$$390.0 $$$$$$$
"Why do I consider this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� an important resource?
---
I consider this TABLEROUND to be far more than a resource !! Afterall, as Sir Slingshot has told you all, I LIVE in a small corner of the upper level of this Castle, and the TABLEROUND is my opportunity to meet and hear many wise and talented Knights and Ladies (from all around this small little orb) express their THOUGHTS, stories, ideas, plans and fears. Many travelers have passed through the Castle and stopped by the TABLEROUND for a time. Only a relative small number of those visitors have stepped forth to express their feelings on the subject of discussion, GOLD. BUT, those that have, are remembered. A fair number, have made personal contact and become what I consider friends. You know who you are! GOLDHEARTS all, I am pleased to be among their numbers. I look forward to more of the Forum LURKERS to take that first step and join in the comradship !
The TABLEROUND is my HOME(PAGE) and SIR MK, my friend !
Thank you USAGOLD, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you, Forum !
<;-)
DummyANI
(09/10/2003; 23:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108489)
@mikal (9/10/03; 22:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 108485)
http://www.tocom.or.jp/baibai/baibai_au_e.html
I estimate that USA-GDP is nearly 10 trillion dollars, and Japanese nominal GDP is nearly 4 trillion dollars.

COMEX max volume was 120909 contracts ( at May 20,2003) within a last year, this was nearly 376 tonnes of paper-gold. Yesterday, COMEX open interest was 283325 contracts. This is nearly 881 tonnes.

Yesterday, open interest of TOCOM gold is 443 tonnes, this is nearly half size of COMEX.

Last Feb., open interest of TOCOM soared 495 tonnes, the trading volume was 525 tonnes per day.(Feb. 05,2003). This was a 390 dollar per ounce day.

If Japanese gold-futures Market-size is applied to COMEX,
open interest of COMEX-gold will be growing to 990 tonnes, its trading volume will be 1050 tonnes per day at a peak-trading. This is a smart selling day.

Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 23:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108490)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlTo be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS you only need a FREE POSTING PASSWORD !
---
IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or Prognostication.
Come on in!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/10/2003; 23:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108491)
A chart of where the GIANTS play ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GSOMETHING is about to POP from this "chop" range !
BUT, LOOK at the VOLUME today. WOW.
<;-)
Zhisheng
(09/10/2003; 23:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108492)
$$$420.0$$$
With apologies to Walt Kelly of yore.As The White One affirms, this �Mighty Oaken Table of Yore� is far more than a resource. It is a mighty oracle: 'Mighty Oaken Table'==>'Might and Main', and, 'as Maine goes, so goes the Nation!'
ski
(09/11/2003; 00:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108493)
Worth noting...


Just a couple of things worth noting IMHO

1. Silver lease rates are on the rise.

2. Gold and gold mining stocks made a nice move yesterday. However, silver and silver mining stocks had larger PERCENTAGE moves.

3. Yesterdays silver move was quite UNUSUAL. At the NY open, silver went straight up by about fifteen cents and just held that level for the entire session. This unusual move suggests that someone was in complete control of this market at that time. ??
slingshot
(09/11/2003; 00:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108494)
$$$$$$ 393.3$$$$$$
One only has to read the posts of those who sit at this
"Mighty Oaken Table of Yore" to realise it is a valuable and important resource. It provides direction and explanations to trouble minds in this time of financial and investment tension. A Table where you do not sit alone but are surrounded by Men Of Wisdom,who see the world as it truly is. When others begin their search, they will find this "Mighty Oaken Table of Yore". Solid as the wood from which it was made.

Slingshot---------------<>
Druid
(09/11/2003; 00:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108495)
segel_flieger (9/10/03; 14:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 108458)
"I personally hope Frank is right because it would mean that the coming Gold bull is much more likely to be an orderly one rather than a cataclysmic event. My feeling is that this would increase the chances that Gold will reclaim some sort of role in our current Monetary system."

Druid: If in fact an orderly transition were to take place, then any concept of a "free market" has always been a pipe dream fostered by many a great minds and institutions. What is becoming ever more visible is that there is no honor among thieves which could lead to its own set of problems. Several great minds at this forum have analyzed and continue to analyze the political, financial and economic aspects that make up this story at this point in history. Based on these insights and my own research, I've concluded, that we are in for one hell of an interesting future. Just the sheer daily volume of physical gold being traded put out by LBMA some years ago would suggest a MAJOR change is coming. Trade blocks are forming and realigning which has its own cause and effect outcome for all parties involved. I personally would like to just see a "free market" price in gold excluding any monetary involvement as this would once again soil the concept of what gold ownership is all about. Remember, "the Deal" involved trading real finite physical items with a paper component as a means to an end and now we are approaching that end. I don't think new additional paper alchemy will solve the problem, it might slow it down some but not solve it. I hope some of these ramblings add to the cauldron.
Operative
(09/11/2003; 01:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108496)
The 27.5 Percent Factor
Stupid is as Stupid Believes.
Congress is going to punish those bad Chinese by sticking it to "them" with a 27.5 percent tax. The crowds cry for justice! How unfair to use cheap labor! Americans are losing jobs, factories are closing, or worse yet, moving to China. This must stop. Congress rides to the rescue, or not.

It would seem to this country boy that what Congress is really doing is quite something else. (Like anyone with a brain cell left would think that Congress would do anything that did not line thier pockets) By passing the proposed 27.5 tariff Congress has found a way to add a whole lot of money to the stressed out US Budget. Will Americans stop buying stuff made in China? Hardly. The made in China goods can easily add 30 percent to thier cost at your local China-Mart Store and still sell for less than comparable American made products. However, this tax will bring billions into the government coffers and guess who will pay this new tax?
(hint: it wont be the folks from China)
Operative
(09/11/2003; 01:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108497)
Advisory To Those Who Sail On Golden Pond
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3420613There appears to be a change in the weather but no warning is to be issued as those tuned in are of the salty type of sailor. Article states there is a differant attitude with the latest price advance of gold.

My comment: It's About Time!!
Operative
(09/11/2003; 01:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108498)
Special Delivery For R Powell & Ski
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$silver,plua[pa][da][f!3!0.03!]&pnf=yA graphic representation of "Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining"

Enjoy
Operative
(09/11/2003; 02:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108499)
The Cries of the Carnival Barkers Begins
http://reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3424210≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketsStep Right Up! Gaze with wonder at one of the best investments ever presented to all mankind! Once only the Rich & Famous owned it, some say the gods of yesterage fought over it, NOW is your chance of a lifetime...get your gold PAPER here! Step Right Up. You sir, You in the back of the crowd! Yes YOU! I hear the clinking of gold coins in your pockets. Would you like to trade those heavy coins for light as air paper gold?
Operative
(09/11/2003; 02:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108500)
With Job Losses, More Homeowners Late on Their Mortgage Payments
http://info.mgnetwork.com/printthispage.cgi?url=http%3A//ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA4HLZDGKD.html&oaspagename=www.tbo.com/ap/story.htmℑ=tbologo80x60.jpgOne would have thought with all those home refinancing loans people could better afford to make those lower house payments. Ok, if not lower payments then certainly with all the cash equity they pulled from thier homes they made a couple extra payments right? Afraid not.

Snip:

With Job Losses, More Homeowners Late on Their Mortgage Payments
By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - More homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments in the last quarter as job losses put a strain on some households' budgets.
The seasonally adjusted percentage of mortgage payments 30 or more days past due for all home loans rose to 4.62 percent in the April to June quarter, up sharply from 4.52 percent in the first three months of this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported Wednesday in its quarterly survey. The survey covers roughly 34 million mortgage loans.
The second quarter's delinquency rate was the highest since the third quarter of 2002, when the delinquency rate was 4.66 percent. The delinquency rate does not include loans that are in the process of foreclosure.
"The delinquency uptick we've seen here is related to unemployment," said Doug Duncan, the association's chief economist. The economy lost 181,000 jobs during the April to June quarter.
Belgian
(09/11/2003; 03:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 108501)
Sweden....
A "political" murder for the choice of a "currency" !!!
This is something relevant to ponder about.
Knallgold
(09/11/2003; 04:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108502)
Nothing has changed,ETF
Operative (9/11/03; 02:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 108499)

Who said the ETF is bullish for Gold?I'm with bat on that.See the link from Operative.As soon as possible, the "new" gold is derivatized again by the shorts.Damned,I'm sick of it.Maybe we will never get a free Gold market-did we really get an official promise from the euro faction for FREEGOLD?.We still lack credibility with our theories.

The Invisible Hand
(09/11/2003; 04:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108503)
Sweden
http://www.ticon.net/~lt/latin.htmlWe have at least one Swedish co-poster on this site. His/her handle is nemo me lacessit impune.

Here's from the link:
This latin term, often associated with mourning bands and Police Memorial Day, means literally; "No one injures (attacks) me with impunity". The motto of the Order of the Thistle. It was first used on the coins of James VI. of Scotland (James I. of England). How it became associated with the badge mourning band is unclear, however, those of Scottish and Irish descent, who held positions in the ranks of police departments over the years, may well have been the influence.
Renny
(09/11/2003; 04:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108504)
asset valuation
I know that over time an object's 'value' may change but
putting that aside for the moment, how would one value
one's assets in terms of gold? Especially given that the $
price of gold fluctuates all the time what with inflation
and all. I've heard that a good suit is 1 ounce. But how
about everything else? From a loaf of bread to a tank of
gas to your tv/stereo to a book collection to a vehicle to
a house, etc. Can one more or less value these things in
gold?

I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?

Renny
misetich
(09/11/2003; 05:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108505)
GM calls on US to lobby over yen
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059479724682&p=1012571727108Snip:

General Motors, the world's largest carmaker, has called on the US government to focus attention on Japan over its intervention to depress the yen rather than the Chinese renminbi, currently subject of high-profile lobbying by Washington.
...............
"The country [Washington] should be focused on is Japan," he told the Financial Times. "We have shared with all members of the administration our view that they really need to focus their efforts on the Japanese."
..............
However, Mr Wagoner said the US automotive industry, one of the country's biggest employers, was suffering from imports from Japan because of the artificially weak yen. "If the yen moves 20 per cent it is a massive delta [change] in profit margin [for the Japanese]," he said. "It is a huge deal."
************
Misetich

Tears everywhere as US corporations fail to match rival competitors

US officials have claimed both China and Japan have/are "manipulating" their currencies YET it was Greenspan, Robert Rubin (Houdini would be proud of Mr. Rubin disappearing act from the limelight) trumpting up the STRONG US $ POLICY

The reckoning of ill policies that led to unsastainable imbalances is just around the corner

Protectionism tacticts will backfire as the global economic landscape has changed - as countries and their economies are interlinked globally

Rest assured that the strong lobby power will succeed and the US $ will continue its descend

Can you imagine the NERVOUS FEELING of those investors whose investments are in US $ - pity those global CB's who have billions and billions of a deflating currency - US $

Wonder what alterarnative exist? ...hint...hint..

PHYSICAL GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD

All On Board The Gold Bull Express











NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/11/2003; 05:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108506)
SWEDEN
Regarding the resent tragic event in Sweden - some input.
It is said in todays news that a couple of witnesses saw the killer, during approx. 15 min. before the assassination, walking around in the shopping aria - wawering with a knife.
And before stabbing - tried to grabb Lindh�s purse.
If one is to speculate about the motive, one would come to the conclution of a lunatic.

NEMO
misetich
(09/11/2003; 05:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108507)
The Neatest Thing about That $87 Billion -Bush and congressional leaders plan to treat the Iraq spending as if it were off-budget, pretending they're not creating red ink
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2003/nf20030910_2527_db045.htmSnip:

Time to follow Alice for another quick trip down Washington's rabbit hole. Just take a look at what's about to happen with President Bush's request for $87 billion to continue U.S. military operations and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bush will get the money from Congress, all right. But that's where things will begin to get strange. The President and congressional leaders are going to try to make $87 billion in federal spending disappear. How? By treating it as if it were off-budget spending.
................
This is an accounting gimmick that would shame even Enron. "We will hold down spending," Bush and GOP leaders on Capitol Hill will say. But next to that boast will be a little imaginary asterisk that says, "For everything, that is, but Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, a fistful of trust funds, and the war in Iraq." In truth, the government will spend more than $1.3 trillion next year -- close to twice the discretionay-spending target -- on stuff that doesn't count in Washington's debates over fiscal responsibility.
............
REAL DEBT. Watch for Bush to claim by the end the year that he held discretionary outlays to a 4% hike, even though spending will go up by close to 15%. The White House and Congress will just pretend it didn't happen.

And how will Uncle Sam pay for all these extra burdens? With real money that Treasury will have to borrow, creating real debt that your kids will be paying off for the rest of their lives.
*************
Misetich

Off budget - discretionary spending - mumble jumble . The REAL DEFICIT - REAL DEBT - must be astronomical. The pressure is intensifying and the lid ready to explode as economic performance falters below levels to sustain the debt bubble created

All On Board The Gold Bull Express





misetich
(09/11/2003; 05:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108508)
The Risks of Getting Tough with China
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/sep2003/pi20030911_6388_pi032.htmSnip:

THE DOWNSIDE. Of course, any move by China to strengthen the yuan could have effects beyond the export arena. China has been a major purchaser (along with other Asian central banks) of U.S. Treasury and agency debt to help keep its currency at its desired level against the dollar. As such, it plays a key role in funding the ever-swelling U.S. trade and current account deficits.

Any decision by Beijing and other Asian economic powers to cut back on their U.S. government debt purchases leaves the Treasury market at potential risk. With a stronger currency peg vs. the dollar, China would purchase fewer bonds, as would Asian central banks if they were to cut back on currency market intervention (buying up U.S. debt to help prop up their own currencies).

And further weakness in the Treasury market, with a resulting bump higher in interest rates, could weigh on the long-gestating U.S. recovery. In that regard, U.S. lawmakers should be very careful what they wish for.
************
Misetich

Scary stuff - and each and every day Asia is adding billions of US $ to their reserves. How long can this continue? What are the effects, implications on the "world reserve currency"?

What are effects to consumers, housing when IR rise?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express


DummyANI
(09/11/2003; 07:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108509)
@misetich (9/11/03; 05:13:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 108505)
http://www.bellwetherinteractive.com/mdi/ Mr Wagoner is not a president of GM, he is a lobbyist. He cannot foresee a car-market of the world.

If I am a president of GM, I develop a no-pollution car which was invented by Guy Negre.
This technology are disclosed in USP
6,334,435 Method for operating pollution-free engine expansion chamber and expansion chamber therefor
6,311,486 Method for operating a pollution-reducing engine
6,305,171 Method and device for additional thermal heating for motor vehicle equipped with pollution-free engine with additional compressed air injection
6,094,915 Method and devices for eliminating the pollution of cyclic internal combustion engines with an independent combustion chamber

And I present no-pollution laws at Congress. No-pollution laws will be shut-out very elegantly Japanese cars from American home-lands.

The Hoople
(09/11/2003; 07:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 108510)
Operative, re mortgage delinquency
"The seasonally adjusted percentage of mortgage payments 30 days or more past due...". Another smokescreen to conceal the real rate of delinquency. Next thing you know they will seasonally adjust the weather futures. The re-fi's have concealed much delinquency, they roll a past due mortgage into a current one. I also doubt highly that the banks are being totally forthright about the percentages of delinquency when informally surveyed. Nothing like sending a shocking message to the shareholders. I saw a while back in WSJ I believe a story about Conseco sitting on 20,000 trailers they repo'd. They still weren't showing up as defaulted loans, yet couldn't get rid of them for even a fraction of the loan value. Maybe a glimpse of the broader housing future?
makcumka
(09/11/2003; 08:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 108511)
@ Renny - Valuations
IMHO, you must think back to the times of war. My parents, who lived through WWII and German invasion told me several stories about those times. The cars were as good as the gas in them. The TVs and stereos - even less value. Clothing was valued a bit higher. Food and shelter was very important. Jewelry and antiques were valued only to the extent of their PM content - a lot of valuable pieces had been melted down and lost forever. Gold and silver coinage or items (plates, spoons, etc) were valuable, although they carried no "artistic" or "aestetic" value - just weight.

Of course, that scenario applies only at the darkest hour. At the absence of these extreme circumstances - the only means of identifying value of something that you have is the currency you deal in or item's sentimental value to you. Again, IMHO.
Druid
(09/11/2003; 09:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108512)
Operative (9/11/03; 02:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 108499)
"Step Right Up! Gaze with wonder at one of the best investments ever presented to all mankind! Once only the Rich & Famous owned it, some say the gods of yesterage fought over it, NOW is your chance of a lifetime...get your gold PAPER here! Step Right Up. You sir, You in the back of the crowd! Yes YOU! I hear the clinking of gold coins in your pockets. Would you like to trade those heavy coins for light as air paper gold?"

Druid: Yep, directing inflation where it needs to go, call it something different thereby creating the perception that it has value and will make you wealthier. Inflation, hidden in plain sight.
Druid
(09/11/2003; 09:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108513)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0909.htm

"Consequently, many nations outside the U.S. have faced far worse battles against rapidly advancing prices. The 20th century has recorded numerous examples of runaway inflation. If the 5,000% Civil War inflation rate was shocking, prepare to be further jolted by the forthcoming hyperinflation statistics:



1. Germany 1920-1923 3.25 million percent
2. Russia 1921-1924 213 percent
3. Austria 1921-1922 134 percent
4. Poland 1922-1924 275 percent
5. Hungary 1922-1924 98 percent World War II
6. Greece 1943-1944 8.5 billion percent
7. Hungary 1945-1946 4.19 quintillion percent



At a peak of 4.19 quintillion percent, Hungary's 1946 hyper-inflation rate is startling when compared to any of the statistics in the above list (2) Just how large a number is 4.19 quintillion percent? To shed some light on that figure, image a 10 with 18 zeros: 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 (in Europe, 10 to the 30th). Now further imagine such a large number representing the purchasing power of one small loaf of bread. For a truly enlightening, yet chilling perspective into the damaging affects of inflation, please read the free text: Fiat Money Inflation and France.(3) The book can be viewed at the Internet site listed in the footnotes of this article."

Druid: Man! when a currency implodes, I hope your stocks denominated in that currency appreciate at a higher rate. Try figuring out a starting point to run your maxima and minima's so that you can point and click your way out of that trade at just the right moment. Talk about trying to bound uncertainty, good luck all.



Gandalf the White
(09/11/2003; 09:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108514)
WOWSERS --- GREAT rebound there SPIKE and SPOT !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1After the CABAL threw enough PAPER Gold to drive the price down $4. --- SPIKE and SPOT took no more of that -- and JUMPED back up to the YELLOW line !
GO GET'EM DOGS !
Jump SPOT, JUMP
<;-)
Renny
(09/11/2003; 09:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108515)
makcumka
I knew it had to be somewhat arbitrary but I wasn't sure if there was some basic comparison mechanism I didn't know about or just use whatever the POG was for that day.

Thanks.
Renny
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/11/2003; 09:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108516)
Special Offer:
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Dutch Gold Guilders
Dutch 10 Guilder Queen Whilhelmina

.1947 oz Gold, Uncirculated Condition

Discounted to compete with bullion.

We have secured a good deal on these coins and want to pass the benefits on to you, giving you the opportunity to own uncirculated pre-1933 gold coins for less than the cost of similarly-sized bullion coins. That's right, it would cost you MORE per ounce to buy 1/4 US Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs or Austrian Philharmonics.

This special will run through Friday, September 12 at 12:00 P.M. MST, or only while our supply lasts. Purchase a roll of 50 or more and receive free shipping for additional savings.

This special is very similar to the one we ran a couple of weeks ago on German 20 Marks, and is an excellent opportunity to add the necessary protection to your portfolio that only gold can provide.

If you would like further details on this golden opportunity to add pre-1933 coins to your porfolio at a low premium to spot gold, give USAGold-CPM, Inc. a call and go into the weekend with gold... and a smile that your friends will wonder about.

1-800-869-5115
Operative
(09/11/2003; 10:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 108517)
@Slingshot
As the gold war wages with heavy hand to hand in the trenches, alas, an old alley of gold has arrived on the seen via airpower on Silver Wings. Silver forces, once thought to be insignificant in the gold warrior camp, indeed almost looked down upon by thier gold brothers in arms have initiated a second front along the battle lines.

Can't wait for the next saga Slingshot, get that pen and paper!
And�ril
(09/11/2003; 10:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108518)
Renny's question of value
"how would one value one's assets in terms of gold?"
"I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?"


Using the gold measuring stick, the short truth is that a man is 'worth' exactly as much gold as he HAS. The speculation of equivalent value of houses, automobiles, crops and factories do not add to the sum measure. The 'worth' as gold accrues to him only after the exchange transaction is truly made, the gold received.

In a lifetime of trials, a man worth nothing shall often struggle with wrong keys that open wrong doors, while the man worth gold will surely go forward swiftly upon paved passageways.
Operative
(09/11/2003; 10:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108519)
@ Druid
Indeed sir! Inflation and a whole host of evils, often disguised by smiles and smooth talk are coming this way. The watchcode for these times is "Be Wary". Here is my guess at the percentage of those who will be willing to trade thier gold coins for the New & Improved version of the latest paper fade game. .000000000000001, and I have errored on the high side to be safe.

(Oops, see a spelling gaff, fade/fad, but leaving as is since fade also appplies dont you think?)
Operative
(09/11/2003; 10:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108520)
@ Hoople, Thank You
Thanks for pointing out "seasonally adjusted" in the article and for expanding on the more truthfull version of the story.

Feeling somewhat sheepish on how I missed those two key words I checked the security levels and found that the BS Indicator had been set to low. I have since reprogrammed that device to High.

steady
(09/11/2003; 11:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 108521)
gold/silver ratio
they r using the inverse of the gold silver ratio today instead of gold up .50 silver up .01 its the opposite,
Zhisheng
(09/11/2003; 11:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108522)
Up into the Close!
Excellent comeback today. The commercials to be outfoxing themselves.
Belgian
(09/11/2003; 11:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108523)
@Knallgold... @NEMO
For the time being, you have to take the ECB's "marking to market" of her goldreserves as the clearest signal on gold's future, that is for public consumption !
Politicians (central bankers) that leave the valuation of their goldreserves to *THE MARKET* !!! One day they will conquer that (goldpaper)market...and change it completely into a freegold market! If politicians can't beat a market, they take and make a market of their own !

NEMO : Do you see the same invisible hand (hands) murdering Olaf Palme (unsolved crime-17 yrs ago), that struck A. Lindh (and the euro), today ? TIA.

Gandalf the White
(09/11/2003; 11:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108524)
PERFECT Answer, Sir Anduril !
And�ril (9/11/03; 10:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 108518)
Renny's question of value
"how would one value one's assets in terms of gold?"
"I'm just curious as to how much gold I'd be 'worth'?"
--
Using the gold measuring stick, the short truth is that a man is 'worth' exactly as much gold as he HAS.
===
ABSOLUTELY PERFECT !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/11/2003; 12:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108525)
UPDATE on today's COMEX "PAPER" Gold action!
Dec 03 COMEX December Contract (GC3Z) 9/11/03
Open $380.5 HIGH $382.7 low $375.7 Last $380.9
Settlement = $380.8 Change today = -$0.3 Volume 36,384
Yesterday's Settlement price $381.1 and Open Interest 204,059
===
LOTS of action today in the PITS !
BUT, after the CRASH of falling $4, the RISE was just as fast, back to the starting level. On the day, the GOLDHEARTS are "holding the LINE" !
BEND, but do not BREAK !
390 390 390
<;-)
The Hoople
(09/11/2003; 12:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108526)
The Hoople Report
On the 2nd anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy and with fresh terrorist warnings issued gold settled virtually unchanged. This marks the 287th consecutive time gold failed to rally on either bullish news or scary world events. The odds of 287 consecutive failures are estimated to be
10,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1. Andy Smith of Mitsui Metals was quick to dismiss such long odds as significant. "Those are no longer odds than winning the powerball 4 times in one year, so I see no significance here." When asked if he personally knew anyone that even won the powerball once he replied, "well, I did know a guy that hit a $500 scratch-off once". Leonard Kaplan was sanguine about it all. "I'd be a seller at $382.40, looking to cover at $381.80." JP Morgan issued a new bullish forecast for gold, calling for $348 in 2003, $350 in 04, $352 in 05, $354 in 06, $356 in 07 and $358 in 08. Those were revised upwards by $2 respectively. They also re-issued a "strong buy" on Enron at 3 cents, looking for a target price of $87.

-Amusing (hopefully) thoughts on an utterly predictable cabal day)


TownCrier
(09/11/2003; 12:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108527)
Signs of IMF 'coming around'???
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030911/economy_reserves_imf_1.htmlHEADLINE: IMF says Asian forex reserve build-up excessive

WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - A massive build-up in foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies has gone too far especially given the gaping imbalance in global current accounts, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Many Asian economies, stung by the late 1990s financial crisis, built reserves as insurance against something similar.

"It is one thing to save for a rainy day, but $1 trillion in reserves accumulation looks more like building Noah's ark," Ken Rogoff, the IMF's chief economist, told a conference call.

[An ark built of paper and water-soluble paste, that is...]

Most of these reserves are held in the form of very low interest-bearing loans to the governments of industrialized countries.

...Asian countries should begin to share the burden of the adjustment through more flexible exchange rates, the IMF said. The fund said it would be helpful for countries with managed-float currencies to intervene less in the market... [i.e., e.g., buying less of this U.S. paper]

Another concern of Asia's growing reserves, the fund said, is what would happen if central banks suddenly diversified more out of dollars when they realize their massive unproductive reserve assets.

If diversification takes place too quickly, there is a danger that Asian central bank funds, built up partly to insure against hot money private capital flows, will themselves become the hot money of the future.

-------(see url for this nice piece of reporting)-----

Is this a sign of IMF accepting inevitable change in the world's financial orientation? Quote:

"These multilateral risks have to be weighed of course against domestic consideration but it is our job to voice them," Rogoff said.

Bottom line: Were these various nations to opt for gold instead of another national currency/debt as the means to provide their savings safety net against future crisis (that is, to the extent that that is truly the motive rather than trade balance), they would not thereby impart such a politically nettlesome situation onto the scene of international trade.

'Tis yet a long row to hoe.

R.
steady
(09/11/2003; 12:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 108528)
comex (comics)
2 years latter and the part time paper pushing gold slackers over at comics(as that what there operations are starting to resemble) still have not normalized there hours. Do not forget that!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/11/2003; 13:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108529)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
glennh10
(09/11/2003; 13:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108530)
Re: asset valuation - some thoughts
The price of gold does fluctuate all the time. But, so does the dollar. An importer/exporter has to consider these fluctuations in his budget, changing on a daily basis. When the dollar drops on the currency market, either the prices paid for imported goods go up, or the seller agrees to accept less profit. The problem with today's dollar is that it has been manipulated to the point where its relative value in the world is way out of whack. Such an artificial condition imposed through manipulation is always temporary. Further manipulation only delays an eventual, exaggerated correction, an event we and our children will face. Gold keeps people honest. It's only when, driven by greed, we try to get clever by issuing more "redeemable" paper than gold that exists, or by converting legitimate markets into casinos, that we end up where we're at today.

Everybody's familiar with pricing in terms of dollars and cents (fractions of dollars). Originally, those dollars and cents were units that measured quantities of silver and gold. Certainly, things could also be valued (priced) in terms of grams of gold, and fractions thereof. But either way, whether measured in dollars or grams, I believe gold will soon resume its rightful duty in the marketplace, out of necessity, if nothing else.
Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 13:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108531)
From The Mailbag

The following is courtesy of the Daily Reckoning (by John Mauldin):

This competitive currency devaluation cannot go on forever. As Bill Gross of Pimco points out quite succinctly:

"... The hundreds of billions that the Japanese and other Asian countries have been buying in order to keep their currencies competitive with the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) and the U.S. dollar will be subject to a sanity check... The currency/bonds/stocks of a reflating [U.S.] economy engaged in guns and butter, Hummer and Hummvee spending of near historical proportions are bad investments. Sooner, perhaps later, our Asian creditors will wake up and smell the coffee.

"Perhaps their java will take the form of dollar or Treasury Note sales. Perhaps the aroma will resemble a revaluation of the Yuan and then the Yen. Either way we pay the price: higher import costs, a cutback in spending on cheap foreign goods, rising inflation, perhaps chaotic financial markets, a lower standard of living.

"Mark these words well for what they're worth (not much some will say): China holds the keys to our kingdom, and our Hummers. Their willingness to buy our bonds, their philosophy of fixing their currency to the U.S. dollar will one day be tested. And should their patience be found wanting, all of their neighboring Asian China wannabes will move in near unison. Reflation's second round will have begun, U.S. interest rates will rise, our goods in the malls and the showrooms will be less affordable, and the process of national belt tightening and increased savings will have begun."

The Fed is between the devil and the deep blue sea. If the trade imbalance keeps to current levels, then foreign holding of U.S. bonds will rise dramatically. At low interest rates, this is not a huge drag on the economy. But what if rates rise and we start having to send $100 billion or $200 billion to foreign bondholders, which would only add to our trade deficit? Can the Fed really allow rates to rise prior to a drop in the trade deficit?


Black Blade: And today the trade deficit jumped higher yet again with China leading the way. My suggestion for your future job prospects � learn Cantonese and Mandarin!

misetich
(09/11/2003; 14:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108532)
Snow-U.S. will talk exchange rate flexibility at G7
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=Y4DQV0U20XTWECRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3429334Snip:

Snow-U.S. will talk exchange rate flexibility at G7
Thu September 11, 2003 03:11 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Thursday he will stress the importance of flexible exchange rates at group and bilateral meetings at the Group of Seven finance chiefs' gathering in Dubai on Sept. 20.
"The subject of flexible exchange rates will certainly be something that we put on the agenda ... with our colleagues in the G8," Snow told reporters at a briefing on a Middle Eastern trip he is set to embark on next week.
...........

The ministers meet in Dubai Sept. 20.
*******
Misetich

Snow and US singing a different tune (retreating and accepting defeat) than the now ancient and forgotten US Strong $ policy -
The in word is "flexible" which translates in a lower US $ vis a vis other currencies and real money Euro, Yen and Gold

All On Board The Gold Bull Express
e-mailer
(09/11/2003; 15:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108533)
gold price
Regarding the pending transfer of financial oversight of
Freddie (fre) and Fannie (fnm), from the Department of Housing and Urban Developement (HUD) to the U.S. Treasury Department, the following thoughts come to mind. Several posters on various gold forums have observed (correctly in my opinion) that the purpose is to bail out fre and fnm by using, post transfer, the approximately 30 billion dollars in the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). I suggest, however, that the story does not end there. If one believes, as I do, that over some long period of time, the Treasury department has employed the principle of Gibson's Paradox to control interest rates by the device of controlling the gold price by transferring ESF money to bullion banks at various intervals with instructions to sell (short) futures and options, this news re fre and fnm comes as good news for gold investors. Although downward movement in fre and fnm stock price would imply a correspondingly higher gold price, even more important, in my opinion, is the implied fact that the ESF money will not be available, post transfer, for the gold price suppression purpose above described. One can speculate that the recent and continuing gold price rise is due to the elimination of the ESF factor, rather than other factors also affecting the gold price.
CoBra(too)
(09/11/2003; 15:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108534)
@ Nemo, Belgian et al
The tragic assassination of the Swedish foreign minister, Anna Lindh, who was very outspoken pro EU and � could have a positive effect on the upcoming �-referendum. Premier Persson already stated to go ahead, as democracy can't and won't be subdued by terror. It may bring more voters to the polls than formerly expected and it may still become a close outcome.
Ericson Tel. has warned to move major parts of its business abroad in case the � is not adopted by the Swedish populace.

At yesterdays hearings for the new ECB president, Claude Trichet, he warned against watering down the Maastricht criteria. He reprimanded in particular France and Germany for not meeting the 3% budget deficit limit - well, what else could he do?

Some tidbits, only for now. Been very busy lately, though happy about it - cb2
Dollar Bill
(09/11/2003; 15:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 108535)
.,.
"...A lower dollar, however, will not stop Chinese imports or suddenly make U.S. companies competitive. Even if the dollar fell to half its current value against the yuan, it would only increase the real wage rate in China from, say, $5 a day to $10.
Elsewhere in the news we read that this year, American workers are getting the smallest pay increases in 27 years. Is it any wonder?"

misetich
(09/11/2003; 16:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108536)
Barrick sees 10% production fall in 2004
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030911.wbbarrick0911/BNStory/Business/Snip:

Barrick Gold Corp. said Thursday it expects production to fall by 10 per cent next year while costs run about the same amount, although it still expects to meet its own performance targets.
.............
Next year, he said, production will likely be down about 10 per cent, while costs will climb by about 10 per cent.
*********
Misetich

The megahedger is disappointing shareholders once again - Several lawsuits have already been launched against Barrick by dischanted investors who allege to have been mislead by Barricks Executives
and Blanchard who are suing Barrick for gold price manipulation

Shareholder's revolt next?

thanks to cjk (Barrick sees 10% production fall in 2004) ID#277212: for the link

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

TownCrier
(09/11/2003; 18:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108537)
RE: msg#: 108527, a meatier comment by IMF's Ken Rogoff
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2003/tr030911.htmThe exact quote is considerably meatier than the paraphrased form used in the cited Reuters article. Here it is in whole, from the original source (link above):

"...someday Asian central banks may wake up to their massive, relatively unproductive reserve assets and begin to diversify more, out of dollars and possibly ****out of cash altogether.**** The larger these reserves grow, the greater the impact of this eventual diversification is going to have."


Somewhat related to this matter, another good perspective-building quote occurs later in the Q&A session:

"...certainly defaults on international debt is something we've been seeing for hundreds of years, and it's not something unique to emerging markets. The industrialized countries earlier in their past have done this. If you go into the 1800s, Spain defaulted on debt seven times, Germany and Austria five times, et cetera. There have been many, many incidents over the past, and one of the factors that we try to weigh in doing the chapter is what the likelihood is of having these problems come in the future, given what we've seen in the past."

Further:

QUESTION: "...Is it at all conceivable that the extreme volatility during the Asian financial crisis actually justifies a higher level of reserves...?"

ROGOFF: "Yes, certainly it's notable that the countries which have had the sharpest reserve buildups are largely ones that experienced crises. ... That said, the reserve accumulation has been growing at a very rapid clip the past 18 months, and while there's no magic formula to suggest what the right size is ... there's no magic number, but this is an attempt to try to say something more concrete. But it certainly leaves open the question that more insurance funds could be welcome.

"But there is a big cost to this. These are loans being made to industrialized countries at very low interest rates. And as I mentioned earlier, from a multilateral perspective there's a concern that as these get larger and larger and the yields are low, someday the Asian central banks and other central banks that have built up large reserves may feel compelled to diversify. And if this happens too rapidly, the results could be somewhat chaotic."


Beat the potentially chaotic rush and pricing liftoff -- diversify with physical gold now, while it is still undervalued in the shadow of vast derivative market confidence.

R.
Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 18:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108538)
Re: Misetich - Falling Gold Production
Falling gold production is a growing concern for the industry after years of neglecting exploration efforts and the increased regulatory hurdles of bringing new mines online. Even with the best exploration efforts very few result in viable mining operations. I just read than South African production is off sharply and will experience continued declines while some smaller producing regions such as Peru have had some success in increasing production. There is some slight increase in Chinese and Russian production as well but overall the trend is for falling production and this trend will last for several years - 5 to 7 years minimum.

Add the falling production levels of precious metals production and rising costs along with fast rising demand and the outlook from the physical side of the market has improved considerably. We are now just entering a time of the year when jewelers are replenishing supplies for the upcoming Festival Season in Central Asia and the holiday seasons in the western indistrial societies. Though the economic outlook for the global economic revival is questionable at best we will see marked improvement for investment demand. It is difficult to separate jewelry and investment demand as in many regions these are one and the same, especially in the Third World. In the west the mark up for "fabrication" of what is actually junk metal jewelry of low quality and Karat composition is grossly over priced. Nevertheless we should still see substantial physical demand.

The new WGC sponsored gold backed securities could have a lot of offtake as large institutional funds that traditionally don't invest in precious metals. Of course I still await the gory details but personally I rather have my own immediate access to physical precious metals for obvious reasons. As the Chinese population gains more access to the liberalized gold market we shall see more physical demand there as well. I suspect that they may eventually rival Indian physical demand in coming years. Meanwhile Middle East demand remains very strong and the most recent report shows Turkish demand rising sharply as well. There really does appear to be a worldwide "paradigm shift" in the gold market and very positive one at that.

Anyway, Off to the gym!

- Black Blade
Arcticfox
(09/11/2003; 18:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108539)
Great snip from Bull Murphy's site..
From The Caf�'s man in the gold options pit:

Very simply, the order flow is bullish.....what is still amazing is that the way upside calls are still cheap.....seems like the whole world thinks we are going up 50 bucks and that's it....god forbid something happens and Gold has a multistandard deviation move to $500 in short order, we will have a derivatives nightmare....that I will guarantee....

There is some talk about vol trading lower upstairs than it is on the floor...perhaps the big banks need some options premium and aren't willing to big it back for their normal small vig.....

As far as today's action in the futures goes (and I know nothing about technical analysis), anyone who is outright short this market is out of their minds....With all of the supposed weak longs out there, the market bounced nicely off the lows.....

-END-

Arcticfox
(09/11/2003; 18:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108540)
Sorry, that should read Bill Murphy's site
though I think it's safe to say that he is bullish on gold...
Dollar Bill
(09/11/2003; 19:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108541)
"/ "
"...Mogambo mentioned China's plan to sell dollar denominated debt so as to beat the US at its own game. Take in strong dollars now (8.3 yuan to a buck), and pay off in worthless dollars later (8.3 bux to a yuan)."

Is this potentially big news? I dont get it yet.
Cytek
(09/11/2003; 19:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108542)
lemetropolecafe on silver... Somone wants delivery
Silver was steady all day, even as gold was trampled. Then, it took off to close in new high ground. It would appear those two little "ditties" brought to your attention yesterday could be very important clues, ones telling us silver is about ready to ROAR! Today, the DEC/DEC spread collapsed again, trading at a one cent difference at times. It settled at two cents. However, the DEC is trading at par with March. Formal backwardization may be only days away.

Got another "ditty" for you. The SEP silver open interest went up 126 contracts yesterday from 800 to 926. Rarely does that every happen two weeks into a delivery period. It says someone wants to take delivery of the silver and they are going to the Comex to get it.

This noticeable tightening of the silver spreads and sudden rise in open interest in the deliverable month suggests silver FIREWORKS are close at hand!

The silver open interest rose 1603 contracts to 111,101.
steady
(09/11/2003; 20:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108543)
valueing
gold is also valued in grains and grams.

is gold 'silver and platinum traded in grams on the china exchanges?
slingshot
(09/11/2003; 22:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108544)
Southeast USA
Hurricane Isabel 11P.M.ASTWinds at 160 mph. Moving West at 9mph. 924 M.B.

If ever the words of Sir Black Blade are to be heeded is NOW. Monitors at work are telling workers to start thinking of hurricane preparation. Florida may have thousands of people on the interstates fleeing this strong storm. Monday or Tuesday will tell which way the storm is moving,whether it hits the southeast or moves out to sea. The media is quiet and Hurricane Andrew is in the back of many minds. I may be in its path. Get ready if you may be.

I heard the Devil Scream once before when I was young.

You don't have to tell me twice.

Slingshot------------------------<>
Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 22:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108545)
The Government Shell Game
http://www.nypost.com/business/5265.htm
Snippit:

As Wall Street continues to re-inflate the bubble, this one troubling question lingers for the those who are blowing air into stocks: Why aren't any jobs being created if the economy is improving as much as it is? You already know what I think about the government's employment figures - they aren't trustworthy. Let me put it more bluntly: They stink. But when you have a seventh straight month of job losses - including the 93,000 positions eliminated in August - you have to figure that, at the very least, the trend is accurate. Washington says the economy is growing at better than 3 percent a quarter, as measured by the gross domestic product. Expectations are that the figure will improve during the period that ends Sept. 30. Growth like that should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 new jobs each and every month. So, not only are we not adding to payrolls but we are still declining.

Black Blade: Not news to those of us living in the real world but in the fantasyland of government, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve � truth is what you want to make it by manipulating data and screwing the people. It's just as simple as that. Lying comes easy to those who make careers from lies (politicians, government bureaucrats, Wall Street economists, and Federal Reserve officials).

Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 23:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 108546)
The coming first world debt crisis
http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-3-77-1463.jsp
Snippit:

Jubilee Research at the New Economics Foundation (NEF), the team that spearheaded global awareness of a third world debt crisis released provocative new research in September 2003 which argues that the "first world" is approaching a major debt crisis. These findings appear in the first of NEF's annual reports on the global economy, Real World Economic Outlook � which shadows the IMF's annual World Economic Outlook.

The report predicts that a giant credit bubble, created by central bankers and finance ministers (the engineers of decades of "easy money") has now reached a "tipping point". This point � at which the "bubble" of financial assets exceeds GDP by nine times � has triggered financial crisis elsewhere. Another "tipping point" would be a rise in interest rates � not unlikely for economies like the US and UK which have massive foreign deficits.

The financial system: unbalanced, unfair, unsustainable

On a global level, there is $100 trillion of debt outstanding, but only $33 trillion of income with which to repay those debts. Even the drastic recent stock market falls have barely dented the credit superstructure. When this credit bubble bursts in the United States and Britain, it will be middle-class consumers that will first bear the brunt of the financial crash.

That will be unjust and unfair, because American and British consumers have been actively encouraged in their borrowing by the financial deregulation policies of both central bankers and governments. Moreover, politicians and bankers have watched as dutiful and compliant consumers have propped up these two big economies � helping to keep the global economy afloat. They will be rewarded for their heroic efforts by bankruptcy, losses, liabilities, and personal anguish � which will extend some time into the future.


Black Blade: Too bad that it's inevitable anyway and already here. The US is already bankrupt and there's no way out.

Gandalf the White
(09/11/2003; 23:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108547)
The 30 Year Bond looks a LITTLE TOP HEAVY ! See the LINK
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lk14]⪯f=GCan you YELL ? --- LOOK OUT BELOW !
OR, don't bother and just GET MORE YELLOW !
The Hobbits got their package from USAGOLD today.
CLINK CLINK CLINK CLINK CLINK
Thanks, Marie
<;-)
Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 23:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108548)
Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3416753
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina defaulted on a $3 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, the biggest single missed payment in the IMF's history and likely to further isolate the precarious economy. The default, which comes nearly two years after Argentina racked up the biggest sovereign debt default ever in the throes of economic collapse, means Latin America's No.3 economy joins the ignominious ranks of IMF defaulters like Liberia, Sudan and Zimbabwe. "To avoid compromising 25 percent of (Central Bank) reserves, the government has decided to suspend the payment that was due today," the Cabinet Chief's office said in a statement.

Black Blade: And so it goes. Another one bites the dust � just another domino falling. .

Black Blade
(09/11/2003; 23:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 108549)
Low oil stocks pose risk to world economy
http://jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2003-daily/11-09-2003/business/b15.htm
Snippit:

PARIS: Oil stocks in industrialised countries are dangerously low, putting the world economy at high risk by pressuring prices and making markets volatile, the International Energy Agency warned in a monthly report on Wednesday.

"In a period of increased import dependency and geopolitical uncertainty, reduced inventory levels expose the global economy to elevated risks associated with factors such as weather and even small supply disruptions," the Paris-based agency said.

Industry oil stocks in the 30 members of the Organisation for Economic development and Cooperation were bumping along at the bottom of the range seen over the last five years as northern hemisphere heads into the winter season, when oil consumption tends to rise for heating purposes, the IEA said.

The situation was made wose by the current low level of spare production capacity estimated at one million barrels per day (bpd).


Black Blade: Word is that OPEC will leave quotas unchanged. It is also reported that Saudi production has topped out at 9.3 million bbl/day and that the estimates of 12 million bbl/day capacity have been wildly exaggerated. Also, Omani production continues to experience steep decline rates. Meanwhile Iraqi production is not anywhere near recovering to prewar production this year and even is doubtful for next year as well, not to mention an Iraqi oil pipeline blast per week and failing infrastructure.
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/12/2003; 00:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108550)
Q to Belgian
You wrote:Do you see the same invisible hand (hands) murdering Olaf Palme (unsolved crime-17 yrs ago), that struck A. Lindh (and the euro), today ? TIA.

Could You please expand on " ....(and the euro,")

Nemo
Belgian
(09/12/2003; 00:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108551)
Towncrier + Black Blade : IMF + NEF !!!
Very important facts !!!
Banks and Insurances * MUST * increase their reserve-levels (Basel II) by at least 50% !!!
Sorry for not having enough time to elaborate on this. Thanks TC and BB.
Belgian
(09/12/2003; 00:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 108552)
@NEMO
O.Palme was murdered for his anti-American attitude. That's why the atrocity was never resolved.
Is the murder of A.Lindh another "political" murder, because of her pro-euro passion !? Than it is most probably, evident to conclude that the same invisible (but known) hand was at work, again (cfr. the Kelly-affair)!?

Suicides...accidents, state security and lone crazy killers are easy and classic diversions from political motivated killings. This looks a premiere in a, hopefully NOT, series of euro-murders. And since we investigate the euro as possible gold-defender, overhere, it is a subject that is gold-related, imo. Must go now.
Dollar Bill
(09/12/2003; 03:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 108553)
*>*............+
Sir Slingshot,
Good to see you are afraid of hurricanes. I am just back from Sanibel Island, (fla) and a discussion of how vulnerable Florida is to a catagory 5 storm revealed that under a cat5 storm the water is raised up many feet due to the decreased air pressure. If that storm came ashore, it would bring the ocean with it. Florida is at most 9 feet above sea level. If you are near the track, leave at least 4 days ahead to avoid being trapped in traffic. If you need our help, ask.
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/12/2003; 03:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108554)
Belgian
Can�t see the logic.
The logical effect of an assassination of one of the prominent "yes sayer" would probably give one of following outcomes of the ref.:
* Postponed some weeks.
Yes have been catching in lately, so this would be
grate for the "yes".

* Postponed one year.
No one can tell what will happen, but with
"yes-sides" growing both in Norway and Denmark lately
this would probably benefit the "euro-yes".

* Killing Lindh gives strength to the yes side. There is
probably a huge psychological plus-effect for the
"yes-side". Or at least no plus-effect at all for
the "nay-side" rather a large risk.


Besides this - due to the behaviour of the killer he must be the worst hitman ever becoming a "contract".

It does not fit!

MK Sorry for the out of focus posting.

Nemo
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(09/12/2003; 04:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108555)
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Cavan Man
(09/12/2003; 05:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108556)
RE:
2 U.S. Troops Killed, 7 Hurt in Iraq Raid
Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and seven wounded early Friday in a shootout that broke out during a raid in Ramadi, the military reported.

The U.S. Army gave no other information on the incident, which took place during one of the bloodiest nights of fighting since the end of major conflict on May 1.

An unknown number of Iraqi police were killed or injured also early Friday near Fallujah, which is between Ramadi and Baghdad. The shooting in Fallujah, 30 miles west of Baghdad, was believed to have involved American forces, Fallujah police and guards at the Jordanian Hospital at the scene of the firefight.

In the confusion after the shooting, 12 policemen were taken inside the nearby U.S. base. Whether they were killed or injured

Brett Woods
(09/12/2003; 07:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108557)
The gist of the case against Barrick?
By Dominic P. Slyfield, September 11, 2003



After the nearly catastrophic devaluation of the USD following departure from the gold standard and the resulting 1978-80 gold and silver price spike, the newly elected governments of the mid 1980's formed the G7; a group of finance ministers who met to agree upon a world wide money management policy. This "cabal" as it has been called, purportedly met and agreed upon a common course of action with regard to strengthening the exchange value of the U.S. Dollar (to reduce inflation and to ensure its status as the Central Bank reserve), and further, to develop a plan that would allow interest rates to be reduced to low levels in order to stimulate borrowing, spending and investment in industrial production.

The strategy of reducing the value of gold in order to increase the value of USD would clearly have an influence over gold production, sale, and valuation. Potential problems with such efforts may arise with regard to the relationship of government with private gold producers and the role that these public companies might play in the process of creating value for USD reserves and reducing value for gold reserves.

Barrick Gold was founded in 1983 with Saudi Arabian capital partners and very quickly, a dream team of managing directors. These included: George Bush Sr. (Head of CIA, President U.S.A), Brian Mulroney (Prime Minister Canada, chief proponent of NAFTA), Fred Doucet (Senior advisor and Chief of Staff to Brian Mulroney when Mulroney was leader of the Opposition in Canada), Karl Otto P�hl (President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the German Central bank), G. Allen Andreas (Attorney for the United States Treasury Department from 1969 - 1973 and one of the architects of the departure from the gold standard in 1971), and Thomas Hicks (Chairman of Hicks, Muse Tate and Furst Inc., a private investment firm formed in 1989 specializing in leveraged aquisitions). The firms principal accountant was a fresh out of school CPA named Randall Oliphant who, eight years after graduation, became Chief Financial Officer at Barrick.

The allegations of wrong doing arise from the implication that these individuals may have used their knowledge of private G7 and Central Bank policy decisions to enrich their company and themselves personally, and further that they may have used Barrick Gold, in conjunction with J.P Morgan Chase Bank as a tool for Western economic policy implementation to their mutual benefit. One fact is that Barrick Gold, a company with a one small gold mine in 1983 grew via mergers and acquisitions to become the world's largest gold producer within 20 years of its inception.

By fixing contracts to sell most of Barrick's gold production at the going rate, and being by far the leader of world producers in this practice, Barrick gained a reported USD $1.7-2.0 Billion revenue advantage over its competitors. Barrick's competitors, who where unaware of the World Central Banks' relentless commitment to contract for short sale all world gold reserves, found that the price of their product dropped unforeseeably below the range of mining profitability with result that Barrick was able to acquire their assets at low valuations.

****

cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 07:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 108558)
J.P.Morgan and Gold
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/PGOA-5RAD64Snippet.

PERTH � The gold price is tipped to crash through US$400 an ounce and make a run for US$450/oz, according to Deutsche Bank, which has launched two call warrants over Gold Bullion Securities [ASX:GOLD].

Gold-favourable factors such as the blowouts in US trade and fiscal deficits, weakness in the US dollar, terrorism fears, Middle East instability, producer dehedging and reduced central bank selling are feeding the rapidly growing investment appetite for gold as an alternative asset class. "The price of gold has broken through an important technical resistance level of $US374/oz, which Deutsche analysts see as the potential start of another rising cycle," said David Sarkis, head of the bank's global equity derivatives structured products and trading division. "This, combined with increased investor demand for gold, US dollar instability, decreased hedging by producers and reduced mine supply could set the stage for a further rise in the gold price beyond $US400/oz and as high as $US450/oz over the coming 12-18 months."




Guess J.P.Morgan sees the world through different "rose-coloured glasses".
Druid
(09/12/2003; 07:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108559)
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm
"Seignorage may also be a motive behind the recent stabbing and now death of Swedish FM, Anna Lindh, an avid proponent of a shift to the Euro. It recalls a discussion I had with a mentor of mine after asking about the possibility of the government totally fudging statistics. "You see David" he intoned in his British-Indian accent, "when the statistics suggest a positive outlook which is not true, the people will groan, eventually rebelling in some form or another." This is not to condone, in any way, the stabbing, or any other of the myriad violent ways in which people are expressing their current dissatisfaction around the world, but rather to suggest that the rise in political assassinations, suicides, and the rising turmoil in the world belies the rosy scenario bandied about."

Druid: This is from yesterday's "Morning Thoughts." This kind of incident does not lead one to believe that a smooth and/or orderly transition is taking place. Now too try and piece together the "real" reasons.
cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 08:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108560)
JFK and the FED
Snippet

On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. The Christian Law Fellowship has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superceded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid.

When President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - the author of Profiles in Courage -signed this Order, it returned to the federal government, specifically the Treasury Department, the Constitutional power to create and issue currency -money - without going through the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank. President Kennedy's Executive Order 11110 [the full text is displayed further below] gave the Treasury Department the explicit authority: "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This means that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation based on the silver bullion physically held there. As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assassinated. It appears obvious that President Kennedy knew the Federal Reserve Notes being used as the purported legal currency were contrary to the Constitution of the united States of America.

United States Notes" were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury. We compared a "Federal Reserve Note" issued from the private central bank of the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank a/k/a Federal Reserve System), with a "United States Note" from the U.S. Treasury issued by President Kennedy's Executive Order. They almost look alike, except one says "Federal Reserve Note" on the top while the other says "United States Note". Also, the Federal Reserve Note has a green seal and serial number while the United States Note has a red seal and serial number.

President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation. Federal Reserve Notes continued to serve as the legal currency of the nation. According to the United States Secret Service, 99% of all U.S. paper "currency" circulating in 1999 are Federal Reserve Notes.

Kennedy knew that if the silver-backed United States Notes were widely circulated, they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve Notes. This is a very simple matter of economics. The USN was backed by silver and the FRN was not backed by anything of intrinsic value. Executive Order 11110 should have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level (virtually all of the nearly $9 trillion in federal debt has been created since 1963) if LBJ or any subsequent President were to enforce it. It would have almost immediately given the U.S. Government the ability to repay its debt without going to the private Federal Reserve Banks and being charged interest to create new "money". Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S.A. the ability to, once again, create its own money backed by silver and realm value worth something.

Again, according to our own research, just five months after Kennedy was assassinated, no more of the Series 1958 "Silver Certificates" were issued either, and they were subsequently removed from circulation. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to all future presidents not to interfere with the private Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. It seems very apparent that President Kennedy challenged the "powers that exist behind U.S. and world finance". With true patriotic courage, JFK boldly faced the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt:

1) war (Viet Nam); and,

2) the creation of money by a privately owned central bank. His efforts to have all U.S. troops out of Vietnam by 1965 combined with Executive Order 11110 would have destroyed the profits and control of the private Federal Reserve Bank.


Snippet


Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Jefferson saw it coming 150 years ago. The question is, "Can you now see what is in store for us if we allow the FED to continue controlling our country?"





Unfortunately, the link I have for this info. will not open for me. I have copied the whole report and can post it if anyone is interested. It is lengthy (13 pages) but it contains some very interesting references.

Question. Does anyone remember these notes and are any still in circulation and/or private collections?
tyro
(09/12/2003; 09:10:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108561)
Gold vs Dow
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=41574869&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&�"How high could gold go? My old friend and mentor Don Hoppe, who retired from writing a regular newsletter several years ago, thinks the price of gold could go a lot higher.
Says Hoppe: "When gold is overvalued, it takes only about 1 or 11/2 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow Jones industrial average. Just think back to 1980 when the Dow was about 850 and gold briefly traded around $850 an ounce, a one-to-one ratio.
"But when gold is undervalued, it takes anywhere from 24 to 42 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. In 2000 it took 42 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Dow. Today it still takes 25 ounces of gold at about $375 to buy one unit of the Dow at 9,500.
So gold is still way undervalued."
tyro: I like this measure more than the price of a suit�gold $9,500 an ounce! Welcome back, Black Blade! I've missed your postings. Have any "field" stories to share?
Socrates964
(09/12/2003; 09:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108562)
Gold bulls taking the day off
Despite the weakness in POG, note that the selling of gold shares seems to have dried up, with the latter diverging positively - harbinger of greater things to come?
Druid
(09/12/2003; 09:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108563)
cockerel1 (9/12/03; 08:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 108560)
Druid: Cockrell, its worth a try, right click on the URL and then click on your Edit option and see if it will then allow you to copy.
admin
(09/12/2003; 10:04:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108564)
MK's Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Quick Notes.

"Gold is up roughly 20% over the past 12 months and stocks are up about 7%...............In a 1% world that 20% on gold -- still the most undervalued primary asset available -- looks very good."
Boilermaker
(09/12/2003; 10:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108565)
cockerell's JFK and the FED
http://www.bridgeoflove.com/bookstore/icke/magazine/vol14/research/kennedy-fed-res.htmlThis link is one of several turned up in a search of "executive order 11110".

I remember the silver certificates and the red seal that identified them. As I recall, the redemption feature was eliminated when the price of silver drove silver coins out of circulation.

This is something that Ron Paul should be encouraged to pursue.

Boilermaker.
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2003; 10:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108566)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!
There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get your thinking hats out and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)
Runner
(09/12/2003; 10:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108567)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes********
Listed below are 10 reasons why gold should rise over the next decade and well into the 21st century. First and over printing of the US dollar. The increasing acceptance of the Euro as a reserve currency. Weak earning of most major corpations. Reduction in gold exploration and mining activity. The reduction in miners forward sales. Increase in Asian gold consuption. Increased popularity and acceptance of egold and further development of the internet. Low interest rates. Centeral banks restricting gold sales. Finally,Countries all over the world competing to devalue their currency.

These factors by themselves are powerfull but, add them together and gold has only one direction to move in. UP!!!!!!

Thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Runner.
Runner
(09/12/2003; 10:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108568)
Price of Gold
$$$$388.5$$$$
Casey
(09/12/2003; 11:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108569)
$$$$ 383.2 $$$$
[fingers crossed]
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2003; 12:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108570)
OOPS ---- two INVALID pog contest entries in a row !
Casey (9/12/03; 11:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 108569)
$$$$ 383.2 $$$$
[fingers crossed]

Runner (9/12/03; 10:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 108568)
Price of Gold
$$$$388.5$$$$
===
Do you see anything MISSING in the above entries ?
PLEASE TRY again Sirs Casey and Runner!!
BTW Sir Runner -- was that your FIRST Post on the Essay contest ?
<;-)
cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 12:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108571)
JFK and FED cont.
http://www.roc-grp.org/jfk.html On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. The Christian Law Fellowship has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superceded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid.

When President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - the author of Profiles in Courage -signed this Order, it returned to the federal government, specifically the Treasury Department, the Constitutional power to create and issue currency -money - without going through the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank. President Kennedy's Executive Order 11110 [the full text is displayed further below] gave the Treasury Department the explicit authority: "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This means that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation based on the silver bullion physically held there. As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assassinated. It appears obvious that President Kennedy knew the Federal Reserve Notes being used as the purported legal currency were contrary to the Constitution of the united States of America.

United States Notes" were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury. We compared a "Federal Reserve Note" issued from the private central bank of the United States (the Federal Reserve Bank a/k/a Federal Reserve System), with a "United States Note" from the U.S. Treasury issued by President Kennedy's Executive Order. They almost look alike, except one says "Federal Reserve Note" on the top while the other says "United States Note". Also, the Federal Reserve Note has a green seal and serial number while the United States Note has a red seal and serial number.

President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation. Federal Reserve Notes continued to serve as the legal currency of the nation. According to the United States Secret Service, 99% of all U.S. paper "currency" circulating in 1999 are Federal Reserve Notes.

Kennedy knew that if the silver-backed United States Notes were widely circulated, they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve Notes. This is a very simple matter of economics. The USN was backed by silver and the FRN was not backed by anything of intrinsic value. Executive Order 11110 should have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level (virtually all of the nearly $9 trillion in federal debt has been created since 1963) if LBJ or any subsequent President were to enforce it. It would have almost immediately given the U.S. Government the ability to repay its debt without going to the private Federal Reserve Banks and being charged interest to create new "money". Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S.A. the ability to, once again, create its own money backed by silver and realm value worth something.

Again, according to our own research, just five months after Kennedy was assassinated, no more of the Series 1958 "Silver Certificates" were issued either, and they were subsequently removed from circulation. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to all future presidents not to interfere with the private Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. It seems very apparent that President Kennedy challenged the "powers that exist behind U.S. and world finance". With true patriotic courage, JFK boldly faced the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt:

1) war (Viet Nam); and,

2) the creation of money by a privately owned central bank. His efforts to have all U.S. troops out of Vietnam by 1965 combined with Executive Order 11110 would have destroyed the profits and control of the private Federal Reserve Bank.

xoxox

Executive Order 11110

AMENDMENT OF EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 10289 AS AMENDED, RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OF CERTAIN FUNCTIONS AFFECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY. By virtue of the authority vested in me by section 301 of title 3 of the United States Code, it is ordered as follows:

SECTION 1. Executive Order No. 10289 of September 19, 1951, as amended, is hereby further amended - (a) By adding at the end of paragraph 1 thereof the following subparagraph (j): "(j) The authority vested in the President by paragraph (b) of section 43 of the Act of May 12, 1933, as amended (31 U.S.C. 821 (b)), to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of any outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denominations of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption," and (b) By revoking subparagraphs (b) and (c) of paragraph 2 thereof. SECTION 2. The amendment made by this Order shall not affect any act done, or any right accruing or accrued or any suit or proceeding had or commenced in any civil or criminal cause prior to the date of this Order but all such liabilities shall continue and may be enforced as if said amendments had not been made.

JOHN F. KENNEDY THE WHITE HOUSE, June 4, 1963

xoxox

Once again, Executive Order 11110 is still valid. According to Title 3, United States Code, Section 301 dated January 26, 1998:

Executive Order (EO) 10289 dated Sept. 17, 1951, 16 F.R. 9499, was as amended by:

EO 10583, dated December 18, 1954, 19 F.R. 8725;

EO 10882 dated July 18, 1960, 25 F.R. 6869;

EO 11110 dated June 4, 1963, 28 F.R. 5605;

EO 11825 dated December 31, 1974, 40 F.R. 1003;

EO 12608 dated September 9, 1987, 52 F.R. 34617

The 1974 and 1987 amendments, added after Kennedy's 1963 amendment, did not change or alter any part of Kennedy's EO 11110. A search of Clinton's 1998 and 1999 EO's and Presidential Directives has also shown no reference to any alterations, suspensions, or changes to EO 11110.

The Federal Reserve Bank, a.k.a Federal Reserve System, is a Private Corporation. Black's Law Dictionary defines the "Federal Reserve System" as: "Network of twelve central banks to which most national banks belong and to which state chartered banks may belong. Membership rules require investment of stock and minimum reserves." Privately-owned banks own the stock of the FED. This was explained in more detail in the case of Lewis v. United States, Federal Reporter, 2nd Series, Vol. 680, Pages 1239, 1241 (1982), where the court said: "Each Federal Reserve Bank is a separate corporation owned by commercial banks in its region. The stock-holding commercial banks elect two thirds of each Bank's nine member board of directors".

The Federal Reserve Banks are locally controlled by their member banks. Once again, according to Black's Law Dictionary, we find that these privately owned banks actually issue money:

"Federal Reserve Act. Law which created Federal Reserve banks which act as agents in maintaining money reserves, issuing money in the form of bank notes, lending money to banks, and supervising banks. Administered by Federal Reserve Board (q.v.)".

The privately owned Federal Reserve (FED) banks actually issue (create) the "money" we use. In 1964, the House Committee on Banking and Currency, Subcommittee on Domestic Finance, at the second session of the 88th Congress, put out a study entitled Money Facts which contains a good description of what the FED is: "The Federal Reserve is a total money-making machine. It can issue money or checks. And it never has a problem of making its checks good because it can obtain the $5 and $10 bills necessary to cover its check simply by asking the Treasury Department's Bureau of Engraving to print them".

Any one person or any closely knit group who has a lot of money has a lot of power. Now imagine a group of people who have the power to create money. Imagine the power these people would have. This is exactly what the privately owned FED is!

No man did more to expose the power of the FED than Louis T. McFadden, who was the Chairman of the House Banking Committee back in the 1930s. In describing the FED, he remarked in the Congressional Record, House pages 1295 and 1296 on June 10, 1932:

"Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a Government Board, has cheated the Government of the United States and he people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our Government. It has done this through the maladministration of that law by which the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it".

Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are not Government institutions, departments, or agencies. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers. Those 12 private credit monopolies were deceitfully placed upon this country by bankers who came here from Europe and who repaid us for our hospitality by undermining our American institutions.

The FED basically works like this: The government granted its power to create money to the FED banks. They create money, then loan it back to the government charging interest. The government levies income taxes to pay the interest on the debt. On this point, it's interesting to note that the Federal Reserve Act and the sixteenth amendment, which gave congress the power to collect income taxes, were both passed in 1913. The incredible power of the FED over the economy is universally admitted. Some people, especially in the banking and academic communities, even support it. On the other hand, there are those, such as President John Fitzgerald Kennedy, that have spoken out against it. His efforts were spoken about in Jim Marrs' 1990 book Crossfire:"

Another overlooked aspect of Kennedy's attempt to reform American society involves money. Kennedy apparently reasoned that by returning to the constitution, which states that only Congress shall coin and regulate money, the soaring national debt could be reduced by not paying interest to the bankers of the Federal Reserve System, who print paper money then loan it to the government at interest. He moved in this area on June 4, 1963, by signing Executive Order 11110 which called for the issuance of $4,292,893,815 in United States Notes through the U.S. Treasury rather than the traditional Federal Reserve System. That same day, Kennedy signed a bill changing the backing of one and two dollar bills from silver to gold, adding strength to the weakened U.S. currency.

Kennedy's comptroller of the currency, James J. Saxon, had been at odds with the powerful Federal Reserve Board for some time, encouraging broader investment and lending powers for banks that were not part of the Federal Reserve system. Saxon also had decided that non-Reserve banks could underwrite state and local general obligation bonds, again weakening the dominant Federal Reserve banks".

In a comment made to a Columbia University class on Nov. 12, 1963,

Ten days before his assassination, President John Fitzgerald Kennedy allegedly said:

"The high office of the President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the American's freedom and before I leave office, I must inform the citizen of this plight."

In this matter, John Fitzgerald Kennedy appears to be the subject of his own book... a true Profile of Courage.

This research report was compiled for Lawgiver. Org. by Anthony Wayne

xoxox

What is the Federal Reserve Bank?

What is the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) and why do we have it?

by Greg Hobbs November 1, 1999

The FED is a central bank. Central banks are supposed to implement a country's fiscal policies. They monitor commercial banks to ensure that they maintain sufficient assets, like cash, so as to remain solvent and stable. Central banks also do business, such as currency exchanges and gold transactions, with other central banks. In theory, a central bank should be good for a country, and they might be if it wasn't for the fact that they are not owned or controlled by the government of the country they are serving. Private central banks, including our FED, operate not in the interest of the public good but for profit.

There have been three central banks in our nation's history. The first two, while deceptive and fraudulent, pale in comparison to the scope and size of the fraud being perpetrated by our current FED. What they all have in common is an insidious practice known as "fractional banking."

Fractional banking or fractional lending is the ability to create money from nothing, lend it to the government or someone else and charge interest to boot. The practice evolved before banks existed. Goldsmiths rented out space in their vaults to individuals and merchants for storage of their gold or silver. The goldsmiths gave these "depositors" a certificate that showed the amount of gold stored. These certificates were then used to conduct business.

In time the goldsmiths noticed that the gold in their vaults was rarely withdrawn. Small amounts would move in and out but the large majority never moved. Sensing a profit opportunity, the goldsmiths issued double receipts for the gold, in effect creating money (certificates) from nothing and then lending those certificates (creating debt) to depositors and charging them interest as well.

Since the certificates represented more gold than actually existed, the certificates were "fractionally" backed by gold. Eventually some of these vault operations were transformed into banks and the practice of fractional banking continued.

Keep that fractional banking concept in mind as we examine our first central bank, the First Bank of the United States (BUS). It was created, after bitter dissent in the Congress, in 1791 and chartered for 20 years. A scam not unlike the current FED, the BUS used its control of the currency to defraud the public and establish a legal form of usury.

This bank practiced fractional lending at a 10:1 rate, ten dollars of loans for each dollar they had on deposit. This misuse and abuse of their public charter continued for the entire 20 years of their existence. Public outrage over these abuses was such that the charter was not renewed and the bank ceased to exist in 1811.

The war of 1812 left the country in economic chaos, seen by bankers as another opportunity for easy profits. They influenced Congress to charter the second central bank, the Second Bank of the United States (SBUS), in 1816.

The SBUS was more expansive than the BUS. The SBUS sold franchises and literally doubled the number of banks in a short period of time. The country began to boom and move westward, which required money. Using fractional lending at the 10:1 rate, the central bank and their franchisees created the debt/money for the expansion.

Things boomed for a while, then the banks decided to shut off the debt/money, citing the need to control inflation. This action on the part of the SBUS caused bankruptcies and foreclosures. The banks then took control of the assets that were used as security against the loans.

Closely examine how the SBUS engineered this cycle of prosperity and depression. The central bank caused inflation by creating debt/money for loans and credit and making these funds readily available. The economy boomed. Then they used the inflation which they created as an excuse to shut off the loans/credit/money.

The resulting shortage of cash caused the economy to falter or slow dramatically and large numbers of business and personal bankruptcies resulted. The central bank then seized the assets used as security for the loans. The wealth created by the borrowers during the boom was then transferred to the central bank during the bust. And you always wondered how the big guys ended up with all the marbles.

Now, who do you think is responsible for all of the ups and downs in our economy over the last 85 years? Think about the depression of the late '20s and all through the '30s. The FED could have pumped lots of debt/money into the market to stimulate the economy and get the country back on track, but did they? No; in fact, they restricted the money supply quite severely. We all know the results that occurred from that action, don't we?

Why would the FED do this? During that period asset values and stocks were at rock bottom prices. Who do you think was buying everything at 10 cents on the dollar? I believe that it is referred to as consolidating the wealth. How many times have they already done this in the last 85 years?

Do you think they will do it again?

Just as an aside at this point, look at today's economy. Markets are declining. Why? Because the FED has been very liberal with its debt/credit/money. The market was hyper inflated. Who creates inflation? The FED. How does the FED deal with inflation? They restrict the debt/credit/money. What happens when they do that? The market collapses.

Several months back, after certain central banks said they would be selling large quantities of gold, the price of gold fell to a 25-year low of about $260 per ounce. The central banks then bought gold. After buying at the bottom, a group of 15 central banks announced that they would be restricting the amount of gold released into the market for the next five years. The price of gold went up $75.00 per ounce in just a few days. How many hundreds of billions of dollars did the central banks make with those two press releases?

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against more severe economic conditions. Do you think that the private banking families that own the FED are buying or selling equities at this time? (Remember: buy low, sell high.) How much money do you think these FED owners have made since they restricted the money supply at the top of this last current cycle?

Alan Greenspan has said publicly on several occasions that he thinks the market is overvalued, or words to that effect. Just a hint that he will raise interest rates (restrict the money supply), and equity markets have a negative reaction. Governments and politicians do not rule central banks, central banks rule governments and politicians. President Andrew Jackson won the presidency in 1828 with the promise to end the national debt and eliminate the SBUS. During his second term President Jackson withdrew all government funds from the bank and on January 8, 1835, paid off the national debt. He is the only president in history to have this distinction. The charter of the SBUS expired in 1836.

Without a central bank to manipulate the supply of money, the United States experienced unprecedented growth for 60 or 70 years, and the resulting wealth was too much for bankers to endure. They had to get back into the game. So, in 1910 Senator Nelson Aldrich, then Chairman of the National Monetary Commission, in collusion with representatives of the European central banks, devised a plan to pressure and deceive Congress into enacting legislation that would covertly establish a private central bank.

This bank would assume control over the American economy by controlling the issuance of its money. After a huge public relations campaign, engineered by the foreign central banks, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was slipped through Congress during the Christmas recess, with many members of the Congress absent. President Woodrow Wilson, pressured by his political and financial backers, signed it on December 23, 1913.

The act created the Federal Reserve System, a name carefully selected and designed to deceive. "Federal" would lead one to believe that this is a government organization. "Reserve" would lead one to believe that the currency is being backed by gold and silver. "System" was used in lieu of the word "bank" so that one would not conclude that a new central bank had been created.

In reality, the act created a private, for profit, central banking corporation owned by a cartel of private banks. Who owns the FED? The Rothschilds of London and Berlin; Lazard Brothers of Paris; Israel Moses Seif of Italy; Kuhn, Loeb and Warburg of Germany; and the Lehman Brothers, Goldman, Sachs and the Rockefeller families of New York.

Did you know that the FED is the only for-profit corporation in America that is exempt from both federal and state taxes? The FED takes in about one trillion dollars per year tax free! The banking families listed above get all that money.

Almost everyone thinks that the money they pay in taxes goes to the US Treasury to pay for the expenses of the government. Do you want to know where your tax dollars really go? If you look at the back of any check made payable to the IRS you will see that it has been endorsed as "Pay Any F.R.B. Branch or Gen. Depository for Credit U.S. Treas. This is in Payment of U.S. Oblig." Yes, that's right, every dime you pay in income taxes is given to those private banking families, commonly known as the FED, tax free.

Like many of you, I had some difficulty with the concept of creating money from nothing. You may have heard the term "monetizing the debt," which is kind of the same thing. As an example, if the US Government wants to borrow $1 million -- the government does borrow every dollar it spends -- they go to the FED to borrow the money. The FED calls the Treasury
cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 12:12:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108572)
JFK and FED
Guess USA gold system will not accept whole article.

Please advise if o.k. to post remainder.

Thank you.
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2003; 12:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108573)
Sir Cockerel1's post on JFK and FED
cockerel1 (9/12/03; 12:12:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 108572)
JFK and FED
Guess USA gold system will not accept whole article.
====
YES Sir Cockerel1
It is SOOOOO long that you must SPLIT it into two parts !
Please post the CONTINUATION as the second part --- and use a third part if necessary !
Tks
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2003; 12:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 108574)
UPDATE on the PAPER Gold COMEX action for Friday 9/12/03
Dec 03 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3Z) 9/12/03
Open $381.0 HIGH $383.0 low $376.2 Last $376.9
SETTLEMENT $376.9 Change on this Day -$3.9 VOLUME 44,750 Yesterday's Settlement $380.8 and OPEN INTEREST 205,726
===
BTW -- can you guess who is STILL "King of the Hill" ?
<;-)
Melting Pot
(09/12/2003; 12:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108575)
Nice little pull back today...buy the dips.....
Refuel our golden rocketship over weekend for relaunch on Monday or Tuesday.:) IMHO this is a gift before moving higher. Today it required the resources of Gold Cartel, ESF and BOJ intervention to recover dollar, SM and shorts. Someone very very big needed a close below $378 for some reason (wink, wink).

NIA & good trading to ya!
Melting Pot
(09/12/2003; 13:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 108576)
The coiled spring syndrome.....
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Hehe....everytime the manipulators let up pressure on gold it jumps up trying to grab some more of the upper trend. I think I'm going to start calling old yellar "Spike" from here on,,,,,

Here "Spike" here, come on boy, you can do it.....

Good trading to ya!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(09/12/2003; 14:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 108577)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 14:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108578)
JFK and FED part 2
Beginning of last paragraph of part 1 is reposted. If additional parts required, will post right away.



Like many of you, I had some difficulty with the concept of creating money from nothing. You may have heard the term "monetizing the debt," which is kind of the same thing. As an example, if the US Government wants to borrow $1 million -- the government does borrow every dollar it spends -- they go to the FED to borrow the money. The FED calls the Treasury and says print 10,000 Federal Reserve Notes (FRN) in units of one hundred dollars.

The Treasury charges the FED 2.3 cents for each note, for a total of $230 for the 10,000 FRNs. The FED then lends the $1 million to the government at face value plus interest. To add insult to injury, the government has to create a bond for $1 million as security for the loan. And the rich get richer. The above was just an example, because in reality the FED does not even print the money; it's just a computer entry in their accounting system. To put this on a more personal level, let's use another example.

Today's banks are members of the Federal Reserve Banking System. This membership makes it legal for them to create money from nothing and lend it to you. Today's banks, like the goldsmiths of old, realize that only a small fraction of the money deposited in their banks is ever actually withdrawn in the form of cash. Only about 4 percent of all the money that exists is in the form of currency. The rest of it is simply a computer entry.

Let's say you're approved to borrow $10,000 to do some home improvements. You know that the bank didn't actually take $10,000 from its pile of cash and put it into your pile? They simply went to their computer and input an entry of $10,000 into your account. They created, from thin air, a debt which you have to secure with an asset and repay with interest. The bank is allowed to create and lend as much debt as they want as long as they do not exceed the 10:1 ratio imposed by the FED.

It sort of puts a new slant on how you view your friendly bank, doesn't it? How about those loan committees that scrutinize you with a microscope before approving the loan they created from thin air. What a hoot! They make it complex for a reason. They don't want you to understand what they are doing. People fear what they do not understand. You are easier to delude and control when you are ignorant and afraid.

Now to put the frosting on this cake. When was the income tax created? If you guessed 1913, the same year that the FED was created, you get a gold star. Coincidence? What are the odds? If you are going to use the FED to create debt, who is going to repay that debt? The income tax was created to complete the illusion that real money had been lent and therefore real money had to be repaid. And you thought Houdini was good.

So, what can be done? My father taught me that you should always stand up for what is right, even if you have to stand up alone.

If "We the People" don't take some action now, there may come a time when "We the People" are no more. You should write a letter or send an email to each of your elected representatives. Many of our elected representatives do not understand the FED. Once informed they will not be able to plead ignorance and remain silent.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution specifically says that Congress is the only body that can "coin money and regulate the value thereof." The US Constitution has never been amended to allow anyone other than Congress to coin and regulate currency.

Ask your representative, in light of that information, how it is possible for the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, and the Federal Reserve Bank that it created, to be constitutional. Ask them why this private banking cartel is allowed to reap trillions of dollars in profits without paying taxes. Insist on an answer.

Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Jefferson saw it coming 150 years ago. The question is, "Can you now see what is in store for us if we allow the FED to continue controlling our country?"

"The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he breaks, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime, and the punishment of his guilt."

John P. Curran, 1790

Source: http://www.roc-grp.org/jfk.html

cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 14:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108579)
JFK and FED

Posting now complete.
Casey
(09/12/2003; 14:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 108580)
$$$$ 383.2 $$$$
Oops. Didn't catch that.

I consider the Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource primarily because I learn more about the true nature of the economy and matters affecting the economy(ies) and real wealth (ie. commodities of real value) around the world at the Table. I value the contributors for their insights and dedication to free markets. Also, I simply don't read "news"papers or watch "news" programs (with the exception of the weather) so I must gather my information from trustworthy sites and forums.

The only shame is that I don't have more government paper at my disposal to exchange for solid gold wealth right now.
TownCrier
(09/12/2003; 14:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108581)
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Asset managers are more paranoid about their holdings than ever.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktwMost of the folks who handle paper investments on behalf of their clients are agog at the 40 percent gains in America's smallest companies these past six months. ... Market Semiotics' Woody Dorsey told The Calandra Report in an interview this week that will come to define both the looming meltdown in paper assets and the building momentum of the commodities rally, "Most portfolio managers have no faith in what they own, except for the commodities crowd."

...when I was at breakfast with a $1 billion asset manager, a $300 million asset manager ... both managers said they were desperate to lighten up on the small-cap technology stocks they owned and wanted a foot into the world of hard assets, be they copper, gold, platinum, nickel, zinc or iron ore.

...a large portion of the investing public -- i.e., ordinary folks -- have no idea how well commodities have performed since the U.S. terrorist attacks of two years ago.

Back in the world of asset managers, Frank Holmes of mutual fund operator U.S. Global says he is confident that gold, copper, platinum (near a 23-year high), nickel (near a three-year high) and other prices will rise sharply in coming weeks and months.

------(see url for article)-------

R.
Boilermaker
(09/12/2003; 15:52:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108582)
G-7 and USAGOLD Acronyms
It occurred to me that we need an acronym for the G-7 countries that manage our world finances. My entry is "DOPEC", Dollar Oriented Poverty Exporting Countries.

The USAGOLD Forum of course should be "GOPEC", Gold Owners Protecting Every Coin.

Have a good weekend all you goldbugs.

Boilermaker
Great Albino Bat
(09/12/2003; 16:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108583)
Today's close and next Monday's reaction to it...

We'll have to wait and see, but...

Today's hammering of the gold price (to which we have become quite accustomed, and indeed can regard as an opportunity to get in on a dip) may:

1. Either stampede the longs in the enormous open interest, and cause them to bail out "en masse" and thus bring gold (paper gold) down again (momentarily I'd suppose) to say, $360, or

2. The dip may incite others who would like to go "long", (and it appears from a post here, there are plenty of those potential longs) and that rush of buying may just sweep away the shorts like the MIssissip' bursting the levee.

It's going to be an interesting and educational Monday.

The GAB
Ag Mountain
(09/12/2003; 16:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108584)
TJ quote
Thomas Jefferson said, "If the America people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."


Focus: "...first by inflation and then by deflation..."

HYPER-focus: "...first by inflation and THEN by deflation..."

Exactly. Too bad more people don't understand this better. If they did, they'd see how we ended up with a central bank to eliminate this danger. With a central bank at the helm of a monetary system as we all have it today there's no real threat of deflation. What we've got is a one-way street (with a few bumps and pot holes) of INFLATION, so Mr. Jefferson may eternally rest in peace on that old account.

That's why thinking people use gold beyond the banking system for their savings.
cockerel1
(09/12/2003; 16:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 108585)
Acronym? How about a G7 motto?
How about a G7 motto?

Justifying (Japan)
Fiat (France)
And (America)
Undermining (United Kingdom)
Gold (Germany)
Is (Italy)
Criminal (Canada)

Federal_Reserves
(09/12/2003; 18:55:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108586)
The recovery
I'm looking for hard evidence of the business recovery in the United States.

I don't find any in employment, production and capital spending.

Therefore, I conclude we are still in the grasp of recession.

Like a drowning man we have come up for air bouyed by the tax cuts.

Today retail sales didn't even make 1/2 of expectations, and last months were revised down.




Liberty Head
(09/12/2003; 21:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108587)
Foreigners May Not Have Liked the War, but They Financed It
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/12/business/12NORR.html
Snippit:

All told, foreigners bought almost 80 percent of the net increase in Treasury and agency debt during the quarter. They now own 38 percent of outstanding Treasuries, more than double the figure of a decade ago.

-------------
Another interesting tidbit for the tid biters.

It's like playing "Old Maid" where everyone gets old maid cards but the dealer.

These games always end in massive bloodshed. After much bloodshed, there will be rekindled interest in honest money like gold.

Best Wishes
Wky_Woodsman
(09/12/2003; 22:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 108588)
JFK and FED
Cockerel1 #108560 and follow-ups
Enjoyed your posts on the Federal Reserve. Thanks. It's been a few years since I've been through the JFK use of debt free money with silver of US Gov't coffers.
Agree that JFK had set in motion good policies by issuing debt free money and plans to reduce US presence in Vietnam. Unfortunately, LBJ turned those policies on their respective heads.
My recollection of the debt free money policy is as follows:
JFK on June 1963 authorized silver backed dollars to be issued by the Treasury. LBJ rescinded this in Sept of 1967.
Please note that my recollection is that E.O. 12608 was by LBJ and not in 1987 as the research that you cite. Details:
EO 10289 of Sept 17, 1951 was issued Providing for the Performance of Certain Functions of the President by the Secretary of Treasury.
This EO was amended by:
EO 10583
EO 10882
EO 11110 by JFK, June 4. 1963 which added to EO 10289 a new sec 1, para j = issue silver certificatees against silver.
EO 11825
EO 12608 by LBJ, Sept 9, 1967 which revokes from EO 10289 sec 1, para j.
I found the title of LBJ's EO amusing: Elimination of Unnecessary E.O.'s and Technical Amendments to Others.

So JFK added in sec 1, para j and LBJ takes it away.

I have a little more which I will continue in another post.

Wky
Gandalf the White
(09/12/2003; 22:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 108589)
Thanks Sir, Casey for the VALID POG Contest entry !
Hello there Sir Runner --- Did you notice that he added a 25+ word comment on why he considered consider this 'Mighty Oaken Table of Yore' an important resource.
If you do that too, your POG Contest entry will be VALID !

YES, I know that I am making an example of the two of you --
BUT, think about all the HUNDREDS of others that will not make the SAME ERROR !
Tks
<;-)
Wky_Woodsman
(09/12/2003; 22:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108590)
JFK and FED II
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htmCockerel1 108560 and follow ups

Additionally in 1965 Congress passed the "Coinage Act of 1965" completely debasing the Constitutional gold and silver coin. At the signing of the Act on July 23, 1965, LBJ stated in a press release: "When I have signed this bill before me, we will have made the first fundamental change in our coinage in 173 years. The Coinage Act of of 1965 supercedes the Act of 1792 and that Act had the Title: An Act Establishing a Mint and Regulating the Coinage of the
U.S. Now I will sign this bill to make the first change in our coinage system since the 18th Century. To those members of Congress who are here on this historic occasion, I want to assure you that in making this change from the 18th Century 'we have no idea of returning to it'".

Please note that no constitutional amendment was ever obtained to fundamentally change or abolish the Contitutional Mandate (i.e. silver and gold coinage).

Cockerel1: If you are interested in the FED, download the URL and study some more!

Thanks for bringing it up.
Liberty Head
(09/12/2003; 23:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108591)
$$$$$$380.0$$$$$$
This Mighty Oaken Table of Yore is an important resource because it is well managed without being over managed.
(applause, salute, applause)

It attracts a large pool of diverse, knowledgeable contributors.
(applause, salute, applause)

Black Blade
(applause, salute, applause)

And it gives away real gold.
(applause, salute, applause)

Who could ask for more?
And what better way to say thank you than to send an order to CPM. They say what they do, and do what they say.
(applause, salute, applause)
Gandalf the White
(09/13/2003; 00:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 108592)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!
There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get your thinking hats out and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)
Sundeck
(09/13/2003; 01:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 108593)
Great Albino Bat : #108583 - Friday's Price Action
Without looking too deeply into it....but with the dollar dropping sharply around one percent, Friday's gold price action has the earmarks of traders selling into strength.

I suspect the current upward leg in the POG has some way to run yet...but it is impossible to tell.

FWIW and DYODD

:-)
cockerel1
(09/13/2003; 07:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 108594)
Wky_Woodsman - msg#: 108590
Thank you Sir Wky_Woodsman.

I will read "The Secrets of The Federal Reserve" with interest. Hopefully I will then be able to voice my opinions from a clearer understanding.


However, your last posting on Friday, together with the information I gathered from the article I posted, raises a new question for my inquiring mind. As a student, albeit strictly a past-time, in the assassination of JFK, it now opens a new avenue to get to that thought-provoking question "Who killed JFK and why?"

Liberty Head
(09/13/2003; 11:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108597)
Unintentional Miscommunication?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030913/bs_nm/economy_fed_dc_1
Snippit:
"Evidently there has been some miscommunication. It was unintentional ... Communicating accurately with the bond market is an important part of Fed policy and we will make every effort to make sure communication is effective in the future," Bernanke said.

Snippit:
Indeed, so complete has been the misunderstanding and so damaging its impact on market interest rates that some, including one Fed president, are saying it may be better for the central bank to say less.
----------

Isn't it telling?
Bernanke isn't so interested in accurate communication as he is in "effective" communication.
In fairness, I must say this preference for "effectiveness" over accuracy is an extremely popular notion.
One could also see it as a preference for the "subjective" over the "objective".
I suspect those of us who own gold and frequent this site are more bullish towards an "objective" view.

Best Wishes

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/13/2003; 13:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108598)
In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Cavan Man
(09/13/2003; 14:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 108599)
From the NY Times
Let the reader UNDERSTAND.Dizzying Dive to Red Ink Poses Stark Choices for Washington
By DAVID FIRESTONE


ASHINGTON, Sept. 13 � When President Bush informed the nation last Sunday night that remaining in Iraq next year will cost another $87 billion, many of those who will actually pay that bill were unable to watch. They had already been put to bed by their parents.

Administration officials acknowledged the next day that every dollar of that cost will be borrowed, a loan that economists say will be repaid by the next generation of taxpayers and the generation after that. The $166 billion cost of the work so far in Iraq and Afghanistan, which has stunned many in Washington, will be added to what was already the largest budget deficit the nation has ever known.

White Rose
(09/13/2003; 14:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108600)
JFK assassination and my path to Gold
When I hit college in 1970, I got sucked into the study of the Kennedy assassination. I now have a collection of about 150 books directly on the Kenndy assassination and hundreds more on "related" topics. What I learned was a series of useful lessons for an engineering student. I learned how the official disinformation machine worked. I learned that the more I applied myself, the less I know. It was a tar pit of messy data.

With this background, I easily saw through the official lies about gold. Every hour spent studying Dallas 1963 has paid me back hugely (plus the raw metal and the information found at this site and this establishment).

Finally, there is a political element. My analysis is that JFK had independant money. He was not interconnected to all the Wall Street and establishment boards of directors. This allowed JFK to move in independant directions. This was the reason he had to die (silver money, Vietnam, CIA, Cuba, etc.: you pick the menu of reasons).

So when I look at the gold scandal, I keep thinking "those were the bast*rds who killed Kennedy". To me this is an intensely personal battle with the forces of evil. I figure that if I go out and demonstrate at the School of the Americas (where we teach South American goons to torture progressive elements) I would be doing something positive. I also feel that when I buy gold and when I buy gold stocks and ask that the certificates be sent to me to keep them out of the hands of the gold goons, I am doing something even more powerful to say "No. This has to stop. Not in my name, and not with my money".

And besides, it ends up making quite a college fund for my kids.
Mr Gresham
(09/13/2003; 15:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108601)
White Rose
You continue to live up to the noble handle you've adopted.

The great mystery of our generation (who doesn't remember where he was when the news came?) which gives the lie to nearly all the politics we've lived through since.

And now, the public is almost at the point, after an dumbing-down era of corporate "infotainment", where the revelation of that truth would be almost met with indifference. By a younger generation uninterested in history or a solid national politics, and by a boomer generation confirmed in its cynicism learned on a day 40 years ago, and now too exhausted to know what to do with the truth.
Leigh
(09/13/2003; 15:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108602)
White Rose, Mr. Gresham
The little I know about Kennedy leads to me admire things about him very much. I think he would be appalled at what passes for the Democratic Party nowadays.

Here's what always troubles me, though: What happened (politically) to his daughter Caroline? Even though she has largely stayed out of politics, she still emerges from time to time to support the slime. About 11 years ago she presented a Profiles in Courage Award to the governor of Connecticut for having the "courage" to insist upon a state income tax. Why has she not stood publicly against the very kinds of people who were probably responsible for her father's death?

I think JFK Jr. actually was trying to make a stand in his own way. I don't think he died a political death (it was a VERY foggy night when he died -- could have happened to anyone). But he really was trying to stand for something, though I'm not sure exactly what it was.
glennh10
(09/13/2003; 15:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 108603)
White Rose - JFK/Gold
I also dug in and studied the evidence surrounding the JFK assassination. And, I apply the same critique when analyzing the official lines where TPTB tend to discredit gold, support the central banking establishment, extol the virtues of deficits and indebtedness, etc. It's an absolute necessity to not just accept every explanation at face value.

Mr Gresham
(09/13/2003; 16:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 108604)
It's so easy to kill people...
http://www.msnbc.com/news/870749.asp?vts=091320031445(except from a 4th-floor window with a bolt-action rifle)

No, the Iraq story linked just shows what happens when you turn KIDS loose with guns, away from home.

I'll never forget seeing Mike Wallace in 1969 interviewing PFC Paul _____ (Meadlo?), back from Vietnam, sitting in his living room with wife and mother watching, small children playing on the floor, about his involvement in the My Lai massacre:

"How can you, the father of two small children, shoot women and children?"

"Waaallll, we didn't have the little girl at the time."

BOIN-N-N-N-NG! went my brain.

A great cosmic "Sheesh!" from the Universe, watching a species likely to exterminate itself -- or at least great numbers of its innocent members -- one way or another.

Leigh -- I think Glenn is closer to my thoughts. I don't know who is right or wrong, good or bad, in all this. I pull back and try to ignore most of what I hear about celebs. (We saw all the Clintonology that went on, too, didn't we?) Just learned to be skeptical, without becoming terminally cynical -- and that's a TALL order! A sad one, too.
silvercollector
(09/13/2003; 18:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108605)
Cavan Man
Thanks for forwarding the opinions and stories regarding Iraq. I had been doing that for a while but stopped because I thought American readers would not appreciate the negative slant towards their leaders.

I have since realized that true gold advocates can sift through the intent of posting an Iraq story for example, versus the message of the story (don't shoot the messanger!)

It is my opinion, without any national or political slant that the troops in Iraq are no longer required. That is to say that based on their original objective of getting rid of Hussein and liberating Iraq then the job is done. Why doesn't Bush cut his country a break and pull up stakes.

From an military perspective, it's over.
Clink!
(09/13/2003; 18:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108606)
@ cockerel
I have been inspired by another type of gold (this one from Milwaukee) to try :-

Just Forget About Gold If U Can.

or (bullion banks, disbelieving....)

Jeeze, Can It Go Up Any Further ?!

Yeah, I know Gandalf, I should have been think creatively about the contest instead. But you've got to let your hair down (what's left of it) occasionally.

C!

silvercollector
(09/13/2003; 18:46:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108607)
Question to one and all
With the election approximately a year away does Mr. Bush want the dollar stronger to bring the good times back or does he want the dollar to fall rejuvenating a 'more' sustainable economic growth.

Secondly, does he have a choice, will he or the 'free markets' dictate the above outcome.

TIA
Paper Avalanche
(09/13/2003; 19:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108608)
Sweden may say yes to Euro despite assasination
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=574&u=/nm/20030913/wl_nm/sweden_euro_dc_4≺inter=1Interesting development. I don't think that this was the intent of those who found it expedient to have this guy take the old dirt nap.

PA
Druid
(09/13/2003; 20:37:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108609)
Credit Manufacturers are Ramping Up
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp"Milton Friedman interviewed this week on CNBC: "I don't believe there is any New Economy at all in that sense (unique surge in productivity). There was the same talk in the 1920's. The 1920s were a period very much like the 1990s in which we had a tremendous surge of productivity in the United States during that ten year period. This time the big difference is in the way in which the Federal Reserve handled the monetary reaction. And as a result, you had a very mild recession and there was nothing to cut productivity down drastically."



It is certainly no coincidence that so-called productivity "miracles" were trumpeted during respective 1920s and 1990s Credit Bubbles. Simplistically, Credit and speculative excess, along with resulting asset inflation, stoked abnormal spending (business and consumer) and "output" (including "upscale" and luxury goods and services). And, especially after examining recent Credit data, it is not the least bit surprising that talk of the Productivity miracle has gone "parabolic." This is, after all, consistent with the blow-off stage of the Great Credit Bubble. Everything seems to lose its bearings.



Dr. Friedman's calamitous error (which is perfectly consistent with his flawed analysis of the causes of the Great Depression) is to believe that the Fed has "handled" the situation adeptly and successfully. Dr. Freidman, along with so many others, is analyzing the situation incorrectly. The reality of the situation is that the Fed has not "handled" anything other than prolonging an increasingly dangerous Bubble.



Any serious analyst - operating from a sound analytical framework - delving into the Fed's "flow of funds" data can come to some important conclusions. First, there is no mystery surrounding the economic pickup; it's conspicuously induced by unprecedented Credit excess. The "mystery" is why the economy is not much stronger. Second, with Credit expanding dramatically in excess of investment or even economic (distorted as it is) "output," rising asset prices (stocks and real estate, in particular) also do not constitute an enigma. There is today unprecedented liquidity fueling destabilizing asset inflation. Third, Credit and speculative excesses have reached unprecedented extremes. Total Credit Market Borrowings (in excess of $32 Trillion, or three times GDP) are now expanding at a rate close to 10%, with Non-financial debt growing at low double-digits. Textbook Blow-off.



What is admittedly not clear is the duration of this fateful blow-off phase. There are clearly powerful forces at work sustaining this historic Bubble. But uncertainty does not mean this "Cassandra" will back down. For too many years we've witnessed the unstable U.S. and global financial systems nurture repeated "miracle" booms and subsequent devastating busts. We watched repeated blow-offs, and their manic existence was measured in quarters and not years. Today, we're just witnessing The Big One. And there is simply no way around the very harsh reality that current extraordinary Credit and speculative excesses are setting the stage for financial and economic instability unlike anything experienced in a very long time. Rampant asset inflation and lurching economies are seductively un-enduring inflationary manifestations."


Druid: Man! They have got the credit spigot wide open. Won't work, nope, it's the same voodoo from times past. The additional credit is chasing yield in the form of other short term investments domestically and any major serious investment is moved offshore. Good luck all.
mikal
(09/13/2003; 20:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108610)
Creditworthiness not to be taken for granted
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/henr091203.shtml$87 BILLION
WHY THE COMMOTION?
By: Ed Henry
Ever since President Bush's Sunday night speech where he said: "I will ask Congress for $87 billion to carry out the war on terrorism" the media and news people have been abuzz with questions. Suddenly, there is all sorts of concern over where the money will go, how much is needed for this and that, why it's so much, what will Congress do, will more be needed, and how are we going to pay for all of this?
It's wonderful that the so-called watchdogs are finally taking an interest in government accounts, but why now? The national debt has already gone up $584 billion as of September 5th and there's more than three weeks left in the fiscal year. No one seems too concerned about that, and it's the real deficit because it includes what the government has borrowed/stolen from entitlements like Social Security.

In the last eleven months, did President Bush ask Congress for permission to borrow $426 billion from investors? Why would it suddenly be necessary to do so now?
Is Congress sitting on a batch of money? Is Bush asking for $87 billion of this stash? If so, then why are we running deficits? A deficit is when the government spends more money than it has in tax receipts, its only source of revenue besides borrowing.
The news has it that Congress will approve the $87 billion anyway, but what difference does their approval make? Congress has already proven itself irrelevant on most major issues like war and foreign policy.
Something is very screwy here. All I can do is hypothesize about why there is this sudden interest in $89 billion more to fight terrorism. Has anyone bothered to put together what the war on terrorism has already cost us?
Maybe, after it's so obvious that Bush and his henchmen lied to us about "weapons of mass destruction" day after day for months on end that people simply don't trust him any more. With his approval rating plummeting like an elevator with its wires cut, maybe people are starting to question everything he says. It could be that simplistic.
Perhaps the hubbub about $87 billion more is a deliberate prelude to giving in to the democrats and rescinding the Bush income tax cuts. Failing to get financial help from nations that were opposed to our invasion in the first place, left with our "go it alone" arrogance and having opened up a guerilla battlefield for everyone that hates us, and needing to restore the infrastructure we so thoroughly destroyed in Iraq would certainly make taking back the benefits of a tax cut seem reasonable, would it not? After all, you don't want them coming over here "on our streets" now do you?
If the income tax cuts and restructuring brackets were a "stimulus to the economy," what happens to our hard pressed nation when they are taken away?
No doubt, Bush would like to put the $87 billion on the backs of future generations by borrowing more money, but there are problems there too. The bond market is in trouble that has been described as a "perfect storm" with investors starting to reject treasuries as the safest place for their money and the big mortgage houses like Fannie Mae being overextended in derivatives. The Bush administration is finding it more and more difficult to borrow as much money as they would like.
Just the other day, Wednesday, September 10th, the Treasury put $33 billion worth of 5-year notes on the auction block and only $11.8 billion were sold to investors.
Hey, how long did the borrowholics think this constitutionally provided "emergency" credit card would be unrestricted?
Maybe Bush is asking Congress to include the $87 billion in the 2004 budget where he is already planning a $485 billion deficit. Would this then go in as an increase to the Defense budget, jumping it to almost $500 billion? He would definitely need the approval of Congress to do that.
Worse yet, he could be asking Congress to take this $87 billion out of discretionary spending that has already been decimated this year. Next year, it would mean putting even more of a burden on States and local governments that are already strapped by shortfalls due to his refusal to deliver on social programs like education, health care, housing, and so forth, not to mention what it does to the public.
There are much more heinous possibilities.
Every time the Bush administration and the New World Order find themselves in trouble we are hit with a calamity from left field. And the Bush administration is definitely in trouble today.
The first time it happened was September 11, 2001, and that disaster could hardly have come at a better time for the U.S. government. After years of ripping-off American worker's retirement and health care money, the Social Security "Pay-It-Again Sam" scam was coming unraveled.
You might want to review the archives of some of the news from July, August, and the first ten days of September immediately preceding that attack. And it wasn't the trillions of dollars involved that threatened the Beltways Bandits� it was the potential loss of power.
If the New World Order loses its pawns in elected office, it cannot carry out its plans for an American empire.
The second calamity came in the form of private sector corporations found distorting their profit picture in order to entice investors into buying their stock. Hiding debt in dummy subsidiaries, double bookkeeping, and other accounting tricks were uncovered as the reason millions of investors losing millions of dollars.
When a few economists and commentators began drawing comparisons between Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, Tyco, and other private sector cheaters and the federal government's own accounting tricks, trust funds, and fraud�we were suddenly faced with the need to "Attack Iraq." Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Saddam Hussein replaced the search for Osama bin Laden whom we falsely accused of working together.
What's next?
Now that we've squandered the world sympathy we had after 9/11 by conducting an invasion that was absolutely unnecessary and illegal, now that we've alienated "old Europe" the United Nations and the Security Council, now that we are caught in a quagmire of our own making, and now that we are committed to rebuilding the Iraqi and the Afghan infrastructures we so systematically destroyed, what can you expect next?
Add in the "Roadmap to Peace" between Israel and Palestine that has floundered on potholes, barricades, road blocks, and detours, plus our stand against North Korea while we ourselves plan to resume nuclear testing, put nukes in space, and the development of "field nukes" and you've got an American foreign policy that can fairly be described as an arrogant disaster that's driving us into bankruptcy.
It's not pleasant, in fact it's nauseating to imply that our own representative government may have had a hand in 9/11, but before writing the idea off as nonsense you might want to review commentaries like "September 11th And The Bush Administration, compelling evidence for complicity" and Dr. Olmstead's "Autopsy: No Arabs on Flight 77" for starters.
You might also want to review the "Not In Our Name" declaration by people who, before the invasion of Iraq, predicted almost exactly what's happening today.
"Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."
cockerel1
(09/13/2003; 21:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 108611)
$$$$368.50$$$$
The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore,and the Mighty Learned Men and Women who command a presence around it, openly welcome all and give unselfishly of their time and bountiful knowledge to assist the likes of the writer and his "ilk" to better understand the "golden aura" that emanates from understanding the lure and importance of "true money."

May you forever prosper.
mikal
(09/13/2003; 22:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 108612)
Watching gold perform inimitably as cycles and circumstances converge
http://www.gold-eagle.com/bonner091503.htmlThe Daily Reckoning PRESENTS:
Investors are up and running...but whither do they go?
Bill Bonner weighs in with his judgment, below.
FLIGHT TO IMBECILITY -Bill Bonner
Snippit: "And there is the spectacle of people mortgaging their houses for more than they are worth; what do we make of that? Who is the greater fool...the borrower, or the lender? It is hard to say; both seem to be headed towards a disaster. Theoretically, the lender is the expert; the borrower is the rube. But, in their flight to mediocrity, mortgage lenders have reached further and further for yield - going after more and more marginal credit risks. Haven't they created a situation in which both sides could be losers?
The lender stands to lose from a boost in inflation rates. Inflation would collapse the value of a fixed-rate mortgage.
But inflation is no sure thing. The homeowner stands to lose, too. Jobs are disappearing. Pay levels are stagnating. Deflation would make it harder for him to make his mortgage payments. And if his house fell in value, maybe he wouldn't want to.
An adjustable rate mechanism would protect the lender from inflation...but then again, not if the borrower can't pay.
In a real crisis, over-stretched homeowners couldn't continue servicing their mortgages. Already going bankrupt at the highest rates in recent history, millions more could go down if a genuine recession were to begin. Most likely, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other mortgage lenders would soon be insolvent, too."
God, gold, grub(food), and gobs of good luck- Get you some!
mikal
(09/13/2003; 22:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108613)
Correct link
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/bonner091503.htmlLink
Liberty Head
(09/13/2003; 22:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108614)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********

We've been floating on the fiat seas for so long, many have lost touch with the underling reality.
Just as all the world's oceans float on top of terra firma, our liquid economy requires an underling terra firma for relativities sake.
Otherwise, we are endlessly trying to make everything real compared to what.
There is nothing better than some stormy weather to get folks looking for terra firma. Our war in Iraq will bring us Cape Horn style stormy weather soon. Gold is terra firma par excellence.

Har maties and shiver me timbers, Tierra Del Fuego Ho.
Gandalf the White
(09/14/2003; 00:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 108615)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!
There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get your thinking hats out and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)
ge
(09/14/2003; 01:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 108616)
Orlin Grabbe on Olaf Palme
http://freedom.orlingrabbe.com/lfetimes/cr_drugs2.htmA rumour at the net.
Belgian
(09/14/2003; 02:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 108617)
@ silvercollector...."THE" dollar-question.... #msg108607
500 pages A/FOA archives (and more).....only at CPM -USAGOLD!Indeed Sir, your "open" dollar-question is *THE* one and only that should be answered again and AGAIN !
But you made one BIG mistake in your question...! The US$ is NOT only the currency of the US...BUT THE WOLRD'S RESERVE CURRENCY ! Not President Bush or the FED are the sole managers of the dollar-reserve...But the whole world is definitely dollar-involved and this to an ever and fast, increasing extend !!!

IF and WHEN, non US dollar-holders, stop supporting-using the dollar-reserve...we will witness some very dramatic changes in global balances !

That's why I would like to rephrase your question : How much room has the dollar left to manage its own fate, short and long term ??? Or, to what extend does the world's economy (economies) needs the dollar as to continue to prosper ?

Indeed, silvercollector...How much *choice* is left for the dollar's US-home-managers ? Ignore the influences of what you call "free-markets". There is not such a thing as a dollar-free-market in the real sense of "free" !
The dollar-reserve (not the US-currency) is "the" most political (floating) currency around wich, all other currencies have to float.

All our discussions are in fact an evolving assesment of the dollar-reserve's room for maneuvering. The Swedisch (euro) assasination,...the real 9/11,...Iraq and the ME,...the euro, oil and gold,...etc, are impacting the dollar's management and intrinsic significance.

There is an increasingly growing amount of many different reasons why the dollar should be "questioned" !!! But this questioning happens extremely and unpublicly, silent, for obvious reasons. Your (our) dollar-question will always remain, an open (unanswered) one. One can talk (wish) the dollar UP whilst it goes DOWN (against its main competitor) for more convenient reasons ! The "floating" of a currency, means that a currency should be managable, politicaly, according to circumstances !

Local US policies versus geopolitical consensusses. Bush (the FED) versus the world.

A declining dollar exchange rate will not rejuvenate, substantionly, the US or global economy, imo. In order to keep the global economy growing (moving), the dollar-system was concepted to have a *strong* dollar. Can the dollar afford some "controlled" weakness and keep the world's economy (US internal economy included) remain in balance ? I doubt it.

A/FOA...The increasing "mis-management" of the dollar by the dollar-printers, undermines the dollar, further and further, in its reserve-status !

Any central bank (FED) that issues bonds and buys back bonds to the present (future) extend, is making a mockery of its currency management. During the past and present decades, we not only saw/see dollar-expansion but "DOLLAR_FLOODINGS" . That's why the dollar exchange rate and later on the dollar purchasing power cannot remain within reasonable-workable limits. We are only at a loss in a possible "timing" of such a final break down.

Back to your question and an answer about a possible dollar-outlook for '04 (election-year) : The dollar "IS" already weakening ! Better,...is allowed by non US$-holders to weaken and as long as this weakening is happening in an orderly manner...we have evidence that the dollar remains supported (used) by the world's dollar-reserve holders.
Consensus goes that a 25% cheaper dollar against the euro is OK, for the time being.

We will see if (and when) this is going to resort any positive effect on global (and in particular the US) economy and employment !!!-??? Will it help the present Bush administration increasing its re-election chances ? I doubt it very strongly.

I suspect that the further demand for 9/11 investigations might come in the forefront !? Some nasty-worrisome rumors, on this subject, are circulating in Germany. If the escalating situation (grave impasse) in the ME remains what it is...funny things could happen and have serious consequences on the "general" dollar-management.


sophmore
(09/14/2003; 06:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 108618)
The New Bull Market in Gold? YES!
$$$$ 381.00 $$$$

First time poster, Lurker 4 years.

The billions and trillions of debt in the U.S. is being noticed by a few more people every day. There is a creeping awareness of PM's which will in time rise to a staccato.

In the book, "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations", by David S. Landes, one chapter deals with Spain about 500 years ago. An erie similarity between Spain and the U.S. becomes obvious. Spain had too much money (gold from America). It produced almost nothing but imported almost everything. Education was poor at best. All nations were considered inferior to Spain. The nation became poor because it had too much money. They ran out of gold and went bankrupt. The U.S. prints too much money and one day they will run out of it (no one will accept it). PM's will be the only monies.

With this basic understanding, this mighty Oaken Table of Yore is indeed helpful in the comprehension of where we are roughly at the present time. This forum posts from an intellectual point of view and not from an emotional. Most contributors make a point, give a reason and proof - wonderful!

Hope I win!

KB
Toolie
(09/14/2003; 07:02:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108619)
silvercollector
Think about where the 2.7 million job losses have occurred, then consider this. Bush won the following states by slim margins, AR=50K (margin) -3 electoral votes,
FL=500-25 electoral votes, IN=350K-12 electoral votes, MO=78K-11 electoral votes, OH=265K-21 electoral votes, TN=80K-11 electoral votes, VA=220K-13 electoral votes.

Al Gore won these "rust belt" states in 2000. IL-22 electoral votes, IA-7 electoral votes, MI-18 electoral votes, MN-10 electoral votes, PA-23 electoral votes and WI-11 electoral votes. MI & WI were considered "toss up" states to the last. Bush can forget about them, as these states need a weak dollar.

The South East states are Republican territory but Bush will find unexpected opposition resulting from the fall of tariffs on textiles. He will find himself fighting for NC and SC.

Bush will likely try to hold the strong dollar until the election is passed. He will offer to spend more money on tax breaks for manufacturers. Retraining for the newly unemployed, and give his "solemn promise" to rebuild the manufacturing base. Expand the number of countries that are willing to hold large dollar reserves, i.e.... more free trade agreements. A weak dollar now would cause a great deal of anxiety in non-import sensitive states and have little time to improve the "rust belt/textile" economies. To the extent that he has a choice, a slowly weakening dollar is his best hope.

When the dollar does fall, make sure you have a golden shelter. A single Oz. of gold can be pounded to cover 300 square feet. How big is your shelter going to be?
Usul
(09/14/2003; 08:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108620)
Corporate pride
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1041430,00.htmlAn exhaustive internet trawl shows the biggest braggarts are often the biggest losers, says stock market historian David Schwartz [Link]
Usul
(09/14/2003; 08:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108621)
Batten down the hatches...
http://www.thisismoney.com/20030912/ht67707.html'We already have record levels of debt in this country, with around 75 people going bankrupt every day. It is only going to get worse if people believe it is easy to wipe the slate clean after the event'
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(09/14/2003; 08:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 108622)
A solid gold education in 175 pages for only $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

jenika
(09/14/2003; 08:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108623)
******The New Bull Market in Gold? Yes.********
An advertisment for a buyer wanting 3,000 metric ton of gold seems like a good indicator for me.
http://www.goldbullionbuyers.com/procedures.htm
Paper Avalanche
(09/14/2003; 08:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108624)
No Inflaion?
Aside from the fact that the whores on CNBC religiously spout the govenrment lies regarding inflation, I believe that the moment of "general awarenes" (specifically, when Joe Six Pack is even to discren inflation on a daily basis) is either upon us or just months away. I say this because, while Joe may not have noticed healthcare rising 20+%, education 30+% and other services going through the roof, there is one thing that Joe knows well. That is what it costs to eat at McDonalds. I went to Mickey D's yesterday and my jaw dropped when I saw the cost of everything. I had noticed a few months back that prices were creeping up. Now they are racing up. A large milkshake is $3.50 (plus tax that's almost $4.00 here). $3.50 for a large milkshake. A large drink is almost $2.00. Super size fries are $2.50. A 20 piece McNugget is $5.00.

I believe that perception is reality. Until now Joe may have had a feeling that things might be going up but was never really able to have a concrete metric by which to measure such a thought. Now he does. Compound the rising cost of stuff with the 10+% unemployment (using real statistics, not what is used by politicians) and you have a textbook example of stagflation. Joe and his friends will likely not vote for the incumbent next year because they want someone who can deliver a better economic situation for the country........unless there is a war.

Iran has until Halloween to "comply" with UN demands for nuclear inspections.

The stage is being set IMO.

PA
Toolie
(09/14/2003; 09:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 108625)
Oil stockpiles logical move for Asia ....or.... Top off your gas cans now!
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/27733.htmlSnip:
That Asia is a huge net importer of oil is not a revelation. Japan, for instance, relies on imports for 100% of its oil requirements. China is
not as badly positioned � it only needs to import around 40% of its domestic needs. India and Korea also rely heavily on oil imports.

Data on the Asia-Pacific Region's share of oil markets reinforces the vulnerability of the region. While the APR accounts for around 28%
of the world's oil consumption, and this is likely to grow significantly over time (International Energy Agency data suggests that Asia accounted for over 50% of world growth in the demand for oil since 1998), the region only accounts for around 11% of production and around 4% of oil reserves.

......................
Governments have learnt a significant lesson from the recent sustained run-up in oil prices. They would, therefore, be wise to look for opportunities to build strategic oil reserves in the future. As the region becomes wealthier, such an insurance policy becomes more likely.

Indeed, China has already identified four sites for such stockpiles to be held, with the storage tanks to be completed by the end of 2005. Of course, one could suggest that this would be a good alternative for FX intervention as it would reduce trade and current account surpluses and reduce upward pressure on regional currencies, both physically and via international pressure.


Druid
(09/14/2003; 10:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108626)
Paper Avalanche (9/14/03; 08:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 108624)
Reference Inflation?Druid: Are large delivery pizzas shrinking while prices are either staying constant or going up? Are certain sub sandwiches getting smaller yet charging a higher price? My 10 year old son brought it to me and my wife's attention that the beans in our Pork N Beans dish were a lot smaller. Since we eat them so infrequently, I really couldn't tell from a comparison standpoint but they were pretty damn small. Interest has to be paid and margins have to be met. So while the cartel of wall street and government steal from the productive sector, the stealing is just passed on down to each of us. Good luck all.
Cometose
(09/14/2003; 10:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108627)
Denver Real Estate Market
Have a friend who is an appraiser; been in Denver market last 20 years......I speak to him pretty regularly...
Last week we spoke and he told me that in the last three weeks , he had had one request for an appraisal.....In the heyday a couple of years ago , he was doing 15 in a week....that's a lot.....average I'd guess was eight.....

This commentary brought to you by REALITY STATISTICS from people in the REAL WORLD...far from the IVORY TOWERS of Washington and Wall STREET....where the BLS and other agencies paint fairytales with their majic wands .....

I've got good news and bad news.....first the bad news...the lies are going to keep coming to cover up all the bad poopicah that is seeping up from the gutters all around us......THe good news is that when the BAD BOYS IN WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET want to put in a MAGICAL FIX they're going to call on a SPECIAL FIX IT PERSON ( who you should beware and know is a counterfiet; trust yourself and prepare yourself for your own future) and you will be able to identify this person really easily because ......HE IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE , ACT LIKE , and BE LIKE HARRY POTTER....At that point in time when this occurs, we will all have to fight to take back our country from unknown movers and shakers.......

DID I hear a rumor on this sight that we now know the motive for the assasination of JFK......Is it all becoming very clear that the people that run the FEDERAL RESERVE BANKING SYSTEM are the enemies of fourth branch of our republican form of government : the voters....

Is there a secret plan that those behind the Scenes , who are pullilng the strings of the Marionettes have for us all that we are not privy to......?????

Is it true that many of the peoples of the rest of the world are aware of these machinations and are fed up and as one prong in a strategy to defeat the unseen enemy and unknown puppetmasters have decided that honest money (SILVER AND GOLD) is critical step to undermine the diabolical attempts of the ELITIST Bankers and their Buddies to control the WORLD and enslave it's peoples....

SHOULD the CASE of "WHO KILLED JFK? " be reopened starting with billboards accross the country with this question on them linked to a website that sights strong evidence...

WILL THIS PRECIPITATE a RUSH TO THE METALS when the masses discover that they have been played as pawns and decieved by massive coverups .......ARE THERE OTHER DECEPTIONS THAT SHOULD BE UNCOVERED......?

IS there a WIZARDA(S) behind a curtain here who needs to be found out and dethroned......

We are living in mighty interesting times....folks.....
STAY TUNED as the WORLD'S CITIXENS UNITE IN SOLIDARITY against .....the SHADOW OF DARKNESS
glennh10
(09/14/2003; 11:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 108629)
Prices at Mickey D's - 1969
For all the retirement hopefuls:

Hamburger 20�
Cheeseburger 25�
Double burger 39�
Double cheeseburger 49�
Big Mac 49�
Filet of Fish 35�
Fries 20�
Small coke 10�
Large coke 15�
Milk shake 30�
Coffee 12�
Milk 15�

Plus 4% to 5% sales tax (CA)

So much for successful dollar management.
Robert
(09/14/2003; 11:23:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108631)
The US Dollar, Sir Belgian,
is not being held by foreign central banks because these countries intend to buy future US exports (cars, computers, financial services etc). These countries desperately need US Dollars in order to pay for essential commodities like oil, natural gas, other minerals (including metals), basic agricultural products etc. The USA does not export these things, to the contrary, the US is forced to import these basic commodities itself at an increasing rate. The value of the US is therefore not based on the ability of the US economy to produce and deliver real goods to the world markets. I think every central banker understands that. The value of the US Dollar is based on the ability of the US to FORCE other countries to accept US Dollars as payment for their exports. In case of oil exporting countries this is being done via military power (latest example Iraq - Iran next). In case of first world countries, this is being done by dominating international institutions (Nato, IMF, world bank etc). Even wealthy European countries like Switzerland submit to financial demands (gold backing of the Swiss currency, Swiss banks reporting to the US tax authorities) by the US Treasury and the IMF. As long as the US defence budget rivals the combined defence efforts of the rest of the world, there is little risk that the value of the US Dollar will decline severely. It may decline against the Euro 10% to 20% (as id did in the late 1980's against the German Mark) but this is a normal market fluctuation and has nothing to do with a collapse. The US Dollar will continue to be the main reserve currency of the world for the forseeable future (at least another 10 years if not longer). The accumulation of US Dollar assets is akin to holding an insurance policy that you will always be able to buy essential goods on the world markets at affordable prices. The value of a currency is not based alone on fundamental economic considerations like trade deficits, government debt, total debt etc. Such textbook considerations apply only to countries of secondary importance (like the European Union and Japan) but not to THE superpower of the world.
Gandalf the White
(09/14/2003; 11:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 108633)
WELCOME former LURKER -- Sir Sophmore !!!
sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618)
---
WELCOME Sir Sophmore !
Looks link you are ready for Post Grad Degrees now !
<;-)
Paper Avalanche
(09/14/2003; 11:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 108634)
@ Druid
Ditto. I bought a bag of cashews last week. The price was the same, but they reduced the contents from 2.0 ounces to 1.5 ounces. Also, check out how much you get (or better yet, don't get) next time you buy some potato chips from a vending machine. Pretty soon all you wil get is one chip at this rate.

Pretty soon people are going to have to spend more time a) working or b) learning why this is occuring instead of watching ESPN and listening to sports talk radio all day.

Knowledge is what separates the masters from the slaves.

PA
MK
(09/14/2003; 11:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 108635)
The Debt Quagmire
A Washington Post-ABC News poll published this morning suggests that 60% of Americans do not approve of the $87 billion request by President Bush for the on-going mililary effort and reconstruction in Iraq.To what degree this disapproval reflects on the fiscal/budgetary habits of the United States government was not addressed. The poll results implied that the public is more concerned about the lack of success in the takeover of Iraq than it is the effects on the national finances. For example, the poll also found that Americans think that if Congress approves the additional money for Iraq, it should simultaneously roll-back the Bush tax cuts -- a twist in the results that tellingly reveals the bias of the poll. As I mentioned in my QuickNotes column earlier in the week, the only concern Democrats have about the spending habits of the current administration and Congress is that they are not the one's governing the spending. They wouldn't have a problem with $500 billion deficits if the debt was dedicated to government social welfare programs.

Much of the apathy with the budget deficits can be traced to the public's general glazing over when confronted with any column of statistics, but there's another, more subtle (some would say more 'sinister') reason for the lack of understanding. This was illustrated in another (New York Times) article published in most of America's newspapers this morning under the headline: "Budget Shortfall to Require Trade-offs". The public doesn't understand because the press and politicians both have done little to promote just how deep and dangerous the over-spending has become. The true nature of the debt, in this way, has been "disinfected" -- cleaned-up for public consumption.

The NYTimes article is a case in point:

It starts off well pointing out that that "many of those who will actually pay that [$87 billion] bill were unable to watch." (A reference to our posterity) This of course is the same and famous imprecation first uttered by Thomas Jefferson roughly 200 years ago in his condemnation of government deb -- an indictment against those who would put future generations into debt to make their own lives more comfortable.* The article breaks down from there, and mostly because it glosses over the dangerous degree to which the United States is going into debt and utilizing the same formula the government does -- the one that comes to a final figure by first subtracting borrowings from the social security fund. In doing so the press, just like the government, misleads the American people by making them believe that this borrowing is somehow not really debt contracted by the government, but some magical source of revenue to which there is no attached liability.

In that article, for example, it is stated "there was a suplus of $281 billion in the budget that year [fiscal year 1991]" In reality the government added roughly $123 billion to the national debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 1991. That amounts to a $404 billion dollar swing. More eggregious than the piling-on of the debt is creating the illusion that the nation did not have a spending problem. All it proves is that that particular group of policiticians and bureacrats was more adept at hiding the serious nature of the problem than the current crop. At the time, the Bush administration confidently proclaimed that the nation would be running a $5.6 billion surplus by 2011 and that "all" the national debt would be paid off.

Even now, the Congressional Budget Office says the budget deficit will be $401 billion. In reality, the United States federal government has already added $582 billion to the national debt and we still have 20 days to go in the fiscal year. At the current rate -- adding about $2 billion per day -- the US will end the fiscal year adding almost $625 billion to the national debt, a far cry from what CBO is telling the American people.

The real solution to the budget/debt mess is to reduce the size of the federal government spending operations by at least one-third -- something the career politicians in either political party are loathe to do. At the same time,the press is equally loathe to tell it like it is since it makes its living covering the politicians. Their relationship is symbiotic. If the government is reduced, the number of people covering it will be reduced. (Smaller government?? Fewer journalists?? Less News?? Less meaningless discussion that dances around the facts?? How could anyone be opposed to that??) But what is needed and what will be done, as we all know by now, are two different things in this most political and media-washed eras of history. That is why gold makes more sense than ever, as the nation moves progessively deeper into the realm of denial. The words 'quagmire', 'impasse' and related descriptions are seen with increasing prominence in the national rhetoric. What many, now among the innocent, will come to realize in the months to come is that these terms do not apply to the war in Iraq alone, but in the national finances as well.

___

*"The misfortune [with deficits] is, that in the meantime we shall plunge ourselves in unextinguishable debt, and entail our posterity and inheritance of eternal taxes, which will bring our government and people into the condition of those of England, a nation of pikes and grudgeons, that latter bred merely as food for the former." Letter to James Monroe, January 1, 1815
Gandalf the White
(09/14/2003; 11:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 108636)
WOWSERS Sir Sophmore !!! You have made me see the GOLDEN LIGHT !
sophmore (9/14/03; 06:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 108618)Thanks for the DOUBLE CONTESTS Essay Post!
Really it was a TRIPLE, in that you made your FIRST Forum posting as the Essay Contest Essay, instantly won an one ounce U.S Silver Eagle (please notify Marie via email at marie@usagold.com),TOGETHER with including the required statement of the consideration of the OAKEN TABLE, and then entered the Price Of Gold prognostication CONTEST !
You therefore have made the Wiz create a new RULE !
--
IF a poster enters the Essay Contest and also answers the POG Contest requirements in the Essay statement -- the poster may also enter the Price prognostication along with the Essay !
AND, Therefore the former POG contest enty by Sir Runner is now accepted ! (eventhough it was in two postings.)
--
Thanks, Sir Sophmore!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(09/14/2003; 12:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108637)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !
Get out your "Thinking Hat" and START THINKING !
FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)
Usul
(09/14/2003; 12:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 108638)
The real reasons
You know, when I hear speculations concerning the real reasons behind events such as (for example) the death of JFK, or the renaming of "deep storage gold", or the death of a Swedish politician, I think of the few occasions when I have been on the inside of an event (albeit something trivial and personal) and have been able to hear the discussions of persons on the outside who were speculating as to the course of events. Usually in such circumstances, their analyses were way wide of the mark. And, by monitoring such discussions, those on the inside can take advantage by directing their future actions to exploit the information gap.
Liberty Head
(09/14/2003; 12:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 108639)
Why Not? The last $87B was too easy
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030914/ap_on_go_pr_wh/cheney_5It's been one week and already $87B isn't enough.

After our military killed the Iraqi police it trained to take over, the timeline for withdrawl from Iraq became infinite.
So now the budget must also be infinite.

The third wave for the gold bull market will be a tsunami.

Whoop! There it is.

Best Wishes
NEMO me impune lacessit
(09/14/2003; 14:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 108640)
EURO VOTEING IN SWEDEN
RESULT:
NO : 56%
YES: 42%


Diviation: + - 0.3%


NEMO
Belgian
(09/14/2003; 14:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 108641)
@ Robert (msg# 108631)
Every sunday, we get our regular dose of political tele-debates. When a bunch of old politicians gathers around the table and discuss geo-politics...I do listen without any zapping. Today, AGAIN, I hear, those old wise men-women, talk freely about how *mighty* the US is. All discussions-argumentations have that US-Superpower dogma in the background.

And right you are Robert,...the US is percepted by everyone as a Superpower and so is, mutatis mutantis, its dollar-currency and reserve fiat. As a rebel contrarian, I'm convinced we have been living with this "myth" for much too long now. I think that I'm not alone with this thought, although I have almost that same age of those experienced, retired politicians, with trainloads of experience. But they all still live in the past and think with a post WWII mentality.

And yes Sir, today, many (if not all) EMU politicians remain very insecure/doubtfull about the EU's (and euro) future !!! These honorable men are paralysed by the US-Superpower axioma as the main and only argument to accept, support and use the dollar as reserve-currency.

But that "super" only relates to * RELATIVE * military might
and the consequent capacity of being able to flood the globe with dollars, CONTINIOUSLY AND WITH INCREASING VIGOR !

Things are changing and people's memories about WWII and the Anglo-American interventions are rapidly fading, whilst the younger generations see the US from a complete different angle. Not only Eurolanders, the old one's that is, but also those 2 Billion (with B) people in the East and Far East. The US Superpower is NOT percepted as a liberator (WWII) or as a model (western capitalism-democracy).

Allow me ta make a few brief remarks on the content of your argumentation in msg#108613 :

- We don't "desperately" need more dollars ! We already have more than enough of these to such an extent that we can't spend them anymore on real goods and services.

- Every central banker knows that in a global contracting economy, dollars are fastly becoming worthless paper as is every currency on a dollar-system (dollar-derivative).

- If the US, unilaterally, attacks Iran, the Superpower will be regarded as much less "super" by an increasing amount of opponents.

- I am not so sure that the IMF and BIS will continue to co-exist in complete harmony, for much longer (your 10 yrs).

- US' "rising" defence budget will exhaust the dollar more rapidly (the perception of the dollar as reserve) to the euro's advance.

- The US$ declined 45% against the DM from its 1985 ATH to the ATL in 1995 !!! Is this a "normal" market fluctuation ???

- I am paying my stuff "worlwide" with euro as the currency of secondary importance...smile Robert :-)

Let me end with a final question: What makes you so confident that the dollar-reserve still has another decade to add to its lifetime, thanks to the expansion of the already enormous US defense budget ? 10 years is quite a long time to remain on a foot of war with an increasing number of "unknown" enemies ! Isn't it ?
Old Yeller
(09/14/2003; 15:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 108642)
Belgian

Stay the course,a thousand points of light,the second half recovery.

Nation of Storytellers,the script is getting a bit stale though,isn't it?
steady
(09/14/2003; 15:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 108643)
finally ..........dirham mentioned in same breath with dinar!
http://www.brudirect.com/DailyInfo/News/Archive/Sept03/130903/bb08.htmSeminar on gold dinar

The Centre for Islamic Banking, Finance and Management , Universiti Brunei Darussalam, will be holding a public seminar on "The Islamic Gold Dinar" at 8 am on Sept. 16 at the Chancellor's Hall, UBD.

The seminar aims to create awareness on the rile of the gold dinar as a means of trade settlement among nations, Muslims and non-Muslims, and to highlight initiatives to implement it.

The seminar also seeks to know if time has come for the Dinar and Dirham to replace the paper currency.

Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin

R Powell
(09/14/2003; 16:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108644)
M.K. post 108635
I just read your "Debt Quaqmire" but I noticed you forgot to include a POG guess.
Happy weekend!
cockerel1
(09/14/2003; 17:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108645)
Tried and True!
When faced with such situations as:

Why is Fiat money in trouble and how will the situation be resolved? or who feared JFK the most, the most obvious questions to ask are:

Who stands (stood) to lose the most if the status quo remains(ed)?

and

How can the situation be fixed and who stands(stood) to gain the most from the solution(s)?

The most obvious answer is usually the solution to the situation(s).

All other information is "Red Herrings", IMHO.
Druid
(09/14/2003; 17:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 108646)
Paper Avalanche (9/14/03; 11:41:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 108634)

"Pretty soon people are going to have to spend more time a) working or b) learning why this is occuring instead of watching ESPN and listening to sports talk radio all day."

Druid: I know a lot of people working 60 to 80 hours a week just to stay in place. This second problem is almost impossible to penetrate because of its powerful perception and imagery construct. A HUGE part of our society live their lives vicariously through this voo-doo box and forget and/or do not understand that most of what is piped through that wire is entertainment and misdirection. I very rarely watch tv, but when I do, I am very particular as to who I select to have lie to me. Once this set of folks get priced out of what they deem to be important, then a revival of sorts may be at hand, but until then it could be a wait.
silvercollector
(09/14/2003; 17:30:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108647)
Hope everyone has had a great week-end.....
.....I get back from the 'cottage' and here's the 3 prominent 'Headlines'.

1) WTO talks collapse in failure..........

2) Israel prepared to kill Arafat.......

3) Sister of Venus & Serena Williams murdered........


What the hell is that?

The planet is euchred.
silvercollector
(09/14/2003; 17:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 108648)
Cometose
You are indeed being melodramatic dear Sir!
silvercollector
(09/14/2003; 17:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 108649)
Toolie
Glad you caught my question; you're #1 of 1!.

From your great message:

"Bush will likely try to hold the strong dollar until the election is passed........ To the extent that he has a choice, a slowly weakening dollar is his best hope.

When the dollar does fall, make sure you have a golden shelter........."

Sounds like what you are saying is Bush is 'skating' or maybe 'doomed' if you take a negative stance. It also sounds like a person might not want to take too firm a position until Nov. 2004 is behind us.

Is that what you are implying?
The Invisible Hand
(09/14/2003; 18:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 108650)
Swedish (euro) confusion
http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art380SNIPS (from Saturday):
During just the last months there have been several acts of violence from mentally sick persons ...

Much of this is the result of the governments new policy regarding psychiatric treatment. They have reduced the number of patients in mental institutions from around 35 000 to around 6 000, claming it is better for the sick to get treatment when they are out in society rather than being held in institutions. The result of this new policy it that we now have a lot of homeless persons with mental problems walking around in society.
...
There has also been some other examples of government incompetence in connection with the murder.
...
Total confusion seems to bee the trademark of the Swedish system. And it is THIS we are paying some of the highest taxes in the world to get!
Druid
(09/14/2003; 18:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108651)
A Week with Richeb�cher in Cannes
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie091503.html"In the final week of August, I had the rare privilege of meeting Kurt Richeb�cher on invitation. He had read my "Ass-Backward Economics" series of articles. In a trans-Atlantic telephone call, he stated his appreciation for my grasp of the gravity of the situation. We each believe a breakdown in the US Economy is a certainty, our government statistics are replete with deceptive fraud, current imbalances are beyond remedy, and the world investment community is being drawn into a trap. He extends his view, expecting a catastrophic outcome for the world economy and its financial markets. All this time, in the back of my mind, I harbored a little voice telling me that I am a kook. In my recent article series, I had referred to Herr Richeb�cher as a "savvy former German banker, longstanding banking critic, and consistent maverick." I was flattered when he confirmed the legitimacy of my thought process and analysis. Now that little voice speaks in hushed tones. We are both mavericks, it seems. In the next few months, we will work on a new pursuit."

"My friends make up an army of soldiers, but no executives. I explained a lulu of an avenue recently brought to my disposal. I have been invited to indirectly pose questions to Alan Greenspan himself. A college roommate of mine used to work under House Rep Bernie Sanders in Vermont. He has urged me to write a white paper for Sanders, accompanied by 3-4 pointed questions. The time has come to put maximum pressure on our Fed Chairman. We mavericks must stick together. The topics Kurt and I arrived at for grilling Greenspan during the next Humphrey-Hawkins testimony would be:

1. hedonic pricing of computer system spending to distort and elevate GDP growth
2. money supply growth rising over 6 times faster than GDP, evidence of futility
3. dominance of financial sector debt growth, which yield no real economy benefits
4. concept of economic recovery with 5% trade gap is utterly ridiculous"


Druid: This is great read. We have a sneak peak at some questions that will be asked of Sir Maximus at the next Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.

Toolie
(09/14/2003; 19:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 108652)
silvercollector
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/category/industryarticle.asp?feed=RTR&Date=20030912&ID=2862556Bush will have great difficulty winning any of the rust belt states, If he doesn't, we'll have a new president (congress too?). Speculation in local media is the new UAW contract will allow for plant closings that total 30-50,000 lost jobs(I have yet to find this in print). Consider this quote, link above; At this rate, "in five and a half years we will have zero manufacturing jobs in America," said Richard Dauch, incoming chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Then you asked, "It also sounds like a person might not want to take too firm a position until Nov. 2004 is behind us. Is that what you are implying?" I don't expect the big THUD in the dollar until after the election. Between now and then, the dollar will slowly fall, and I'll accumulate ALL the metal that I can.

Finally, My cottage is on a different planet too.
TownCrier
(09/14/2003; 20:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 108653)
Danes for change as Swedes sway familiar
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030914/denmark_euro_1.htmlHEADLINE: Danish euro support widens as Swedes vote "No"

COPENHAGEN, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Almost fifty-seven percent of Danes want their country to join the European single currency, a poll showed on Sunday ... the "No" camp 33.6 percent ...

...80 percent of the interviewed Danes said a Swedish "No" would not have an effect on their attitude...

--------(from url)------

A majority of Danes now polled would like a referendum next year, having previously snubbed joining the single currency in a 53-47 vote just a short three years ago.

R.
mikal
(09/14/2003; 23:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 108654)
Personal bankrupcies and household debt is up while retirement savings is down
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2003-09-14-middle-cover_x.htm"Middle Class Barely Treads Water"
Bull Moose
(09/14/2003; 23:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 108655)
A New Bull Market
The new bull market is obvious when you look at all of the indicators available. Starting in 1976 we have been in a 24 year bear market that has been distinguished by an 8 year cycle of 3 years up, then 5 years down. This cycle has repeated 3 times until early 2001. In following the Elliott wave 5 count to the same concluding point in 2001, we see the expected up turn at that juncture. Furthermore, of the 4 major cycles that were in play at the time of the 1980, $800 spike, 2 of the primary ones are coming back into play in January 2004 (27 and 9 year) as well as the 40 week cycle and others of lesser influence. These cycles will project the price of gold well above the present levels in the year 2004. Of course there will first be a fall in the price near the end of the year. Finally, the debasement of the US dollar over the past 30 years along with the loss of the productive elementary business base leaves the eventual total destruction of the US economy inevitable. As the fiat dollar is destroyed the only place left for the prudent investor is the precious metals which assures a continued bull market in precious metals for the forseable future
Gandalf the White
(09/15/2003; 00:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 108656)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.htmlThe "USAGOLD Forum FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONTESTS" page has been UPDATED !!

There is a direct LINK atop this posting page, OR, use the "Optional Link" in this message !

Get your "Thinking Hat" out and START THINKING !

FREE GOLD awaits your entry.
<;-)
The Invisible Hand
(09/15/2003; 02:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108657)
$$$$$$ 8,752.00$$$$$$
The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

2003.09.15: I consider this Mighty Oaken Table of Yore an important resource because it enables me to know that a better world is possible. A world in which Aristotle's words, as amplified by Ayn Rand, that A = A are not constantly laughed at, at one's expense. A world in which there's also a yardstick to determine not only what a thing is, but also what its value is. Is value subjective? Yes that's why the seller and the buyer can agree on a price. What about a world in which there's no paper money and thus no welfare state? And thus no state whose populace may reject sound money out of fear of loss of the welfare state? If in such world, a politician who's known in advance to be on the losing side is killed by somebody who's not to be found after three or four days, it is known for sure that the killer was a professional, not a mentally disabled person. But why kill such a politician if not in order to increase the number of votes cast for his or her side? Or would a killing in such a world have nothing to do with party politics? Or is that only in this world?
steady
(09/15/2003; 05:53:15 MDT - Msg ID: 108658)
how to buy 1 ounce of gold for 103.80
http://www.islamicmint.com/buy 20 ounces of silver and wait!
when the ratio gets to the historic norm then trade the siver for gold. pretty simple. got time? got patience? you will have gold lots of it ,and will have acquired it at near rock bottom proces in fact cheaper than the bottom of gold.

According to Islamic Law...

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.

The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

Cavan Man
(09/15/2003; 07:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 108659)
Weapons of Mass Disappearing
The official verdict is: NONEReport: Iraq weapons search update late



LONDON, Sept. 14 (UPI) -- A scheduled update on any Iraqi weapons of mass destruction is being delayed and the entire report may not be published, The Sunday Times of London reported.

There was no immediate response from U.S. officials, but the report that originated with British officials said the Anglo-American team of 1,400 scientists, military and intelligence experts has very little to report.

Their progress report on any biological, chemical and nuclear devices expected Monday will be delayed, the newspaper said, and the final report to be given the Central Intelligence Agency may not be made public.

The subject of Iraq's weapons capability has become very sensitive in London and Washington as critics have charged Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Bush exaggerated the capabilities to help justify the war.

CM Question: What's going on over there and how does this affect the physical gold market?

Waverider
(09/15/2003; 08:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 108660)
Look beneath the golden gleam
Waverider: This is from FT registration....

Look beneath the golden gleam
By Tim Lee
Published: September 14 2003 20:51 | Last Updated: September 14 2003 20:51

"Optimism is stirring in financial markets and the US economy. Recent indicators have suggested that enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus is having an impact.

Stock markets have held on to substantial gains and bond yields have risen as forecasts for growth have been revised upwards. Supply-side arguments revolving round strong productivity trends are back in vogue, as is a tendency among analysts and market participants to ignore the implications of persisting global imbalances.

However, there is at least one warning sign that all is not well and that problems lie ahead for financial markets and the global economy.

This is the underlying strength of the gold markets, both bullion itself and gold mining shares. The gold price has risen from lows of close to $250 an ounce early in 2001 to almost $380 now. The increase has been prolonged enough to suggest the end of the previous long downward trend.

The increase in the price of gold has certainly not gone unnoticed but it has not been satisfactorily analysed.

Some commentators have seen it as a symptom of the risks posed to the financial system by the supposed threat of deflation, while others ascribe it purely to dollar weakness. Very few observers have taken the traditional view that the upturn in gold is a sign of nascent inflation pressures.

Most market participants seem to view gold's strength as having no longer-term significance, being merely the result of diversification by investors and accompanying speculative activity by hedge funds.

The conventional wisdom is likely to prove mistaken. The gold market may be relatively small but gold retains its significance as a longer-term monetary indicator. Contrary to a popular view, this importance does not depend on the whims of a few central bank governors and finance ministers but, rather, on the characteristics that have historically made gold a money, and that lie behind its long history as a monetary asset.

Looking back, the medium- and longer-term movements in the real gold price have contained information about the forces shaping the economy and financial markets. The difficulty, as always in economics, has been in understanding and correctly analysing those influences as they are occurring, rather than after the event.

For more than 100 years gold has experienced very long cycles in its real value (that is, its price relative to goods and services), but these long cycles have occurred around a constant level. That is, in a long-term sense the real gold price has tended to remain stable. (This was not true longer ago in history, when large gold discoveries had an impact). Around this stable real value there have been three extended periods of depressed real gold prices: the first from 1920 to 1933; the second in 1952-70; and the third the period that began in the mid-1990s.

The first of these coincides roughly with the monetary regime of the gold exchange standard and the second with the era of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. In both these periods, the price of gold was fixed by central banks and governments.

The difference between the two was that under the gold exchange, standard price levels in the economy were forced into alignment with the low fixed price for gold - meaning deflation - while under Bretton Woods, ultimately they were not. Central banks pursued expansionary monetary policies in the 1960s and early 1970s that were incompatible with the low price fixed for gold, until the system inevitably broke down, with inflationary consequences.

The third period of low real gold prices, which continues today, can also be attributed to the actions of central banks and governments; but the forces at work are more complex. Beginning in the mid-1990s, central banks and governments not only sold gold heavily from reserves and lent gold to short-sellers but their wider activities also encouraged excessive speculation in financial assets that further discouraged investment in gold. In the bubble environment of the 1990s, this helped create many of the "feedback loops" that sustained the financial bubble. For instance, low gold prices played a role in helping to suppress inflation expectations, which further encouraged the financial markets.

Arguably, the downward trend in the price of gold also helped to cement the dominance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency and store of value. The strength of the dollar, in turn, was a further force keeping US inflation low even as the Federal Reserve implemented an increasingly loose policy. The weakness of gold until the end of the 1990s was therefore integral to the financial bubble environment, both as a cause and an effect of the inflation of financial asset prices.

This perspective leads to two main conclusions. First, the new upward trend in