USAGOLD Discussion - October 2003

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Aristotle

(10/01/2003; 00:01:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109649)

Smeagol, how about modifying your question

Might as well include nickel at 31.4 cents per troy ounce. I wonder if anyone's logic will see that one doubling first.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(10/01/2003; 00:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109650)

Belgian, nice to see you back in good form

Hold onto your hat, it looks like the winds of change are beginning to blow!? You and Townie brought up a point about the management of the global monetary system serving lop-sided interests in the nick o' time because it looks like the present system isn't delivering net political benefits to its long-time masters -- to the degree of pain that the breaking point is perhaps drawing nigh.

To the extent that our top political leader, none other than George Bush himself, voiced in on the matter in front of some businessmen in Chicago that China needs to "make sure that China's got a monetary policy which is fair."

HA! Ain't that a riot? We're suddenly interested in FAIRNESS! Ain't we a noble breed of savages over here after all!!

Speaking of fairness from the mouths of political leadership, I saw you mention Blair's "survival speech" in your last post. I caught part of it on C-span (before it was unceremoniously bumped for live coverage of some insignificant and irrelevant committee meeting of the US House of Representatives.) If I remember aright, the presentation of the speech was "A Future Fair for All." So there it is again, for the second prominent time in the same day. FAIRNESS. What little of the speech I did see I thought to be a nifty piece of work.

Metaphorically, especially with regard to the dollar Masters, when the executioner finds fortune has changed, thus putting his own head on the block, an appeal to "fairness" rather makes for a shabby and yet grimmly ominous sounding plea bargain, wouldn't you agree? In a "reap what you sow" sorta way.

It's easy for the rest of the world to be intimidated by U.S. policy and pressure, which makes any international progress toward non-hegemonic structures a slow and laborious undertaking. But now, are we seeing cracks in the door, and is it too much to expect that the pace toward the inevitable will quicken as the players perceive a rare opening?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 00:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109651)

More people losing homes

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/6896331.htm
Snippit:

Foreclosures continue to soar in North Texas, with the homes that are posted for auction in October at the second highest level this year. There were 2,715 foreclosures in North Texas during October, 48.6 percent more than a year ago, according to the Foreclosure Listing Service, which tracks foreclosure activity. The North Texas area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton and Tarrant counties. Foreclosure listings in October are compiled in September.

The increase came as a surprise to George Roddy Sr., president of the Foreclosure Listing Service, who said foreclosures had leveled in recent months after rising in the spring. "We were projecting that it would flatten out on the high side. We weren't expecting any spike ups," he said. But, he said Monday, foreclosures are likely to continue at a high level unless there is a drastic change in employment. The local foreclosure numbers seem to be in step with the national trend, which has also shown more foreclosures between the first and second quarters of 2003, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Some lenders are also aggressively lending money to get people into homes, Rollins said. Last week, he said, he talked to a family with a household income of $24,000 who had a contract on a $120,000 house.

Black Blade: The Refi party is over! This is just the beginning of a national trend too. Add in the higher taxes from rising home prices as well. Then there's the real estate bubble that will eventually bust leaving people paying more on homes worth a lot less. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 01:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109652)

The Enormous Power of the Financial Machine....

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/images/chapmand092903a.gifHaving the planet's dollar-reserve-currency seriously weakening AND interest rates going down !!! A gigantic plunder of all those who honestly earned illusionary confetti in wich they keep on believing as representing their wealth. Same story, but worse, will happen for the $-TRILLIONS invested in the ten thousands of Funds. How easy it is to fool so many people for such a long time.

Use your eyes to "see" or you will have to use them to "cry".

World stockmarket Index will halve and US$ lose another 20% according to my TA/TI. I consider this as the best case scenario. This will happen under a lot of full moons.
Look long and from the right distance to the Chapman double chart (link) : US dollar-index "DOME" and POG "BOWL" !!! These are extremely powerfull (reliable long term) patterns not easely to be reversed !!! There's even much room for surprise technical reversals without disturbing/breaking the evolving pattern (trend). Sit thight and have a very good morning.

DummyANI

(10/01/2003; 01:27:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109653)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 01:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109654)

Morning Ari,

And Tony stated, with even more passion, that... HE WAS NOT BUSH'S POODLE !!!,...waf, waf !!! OK, fair enough.
Main point about UK is its function as the transatlantic link between US and EU. Under Tony, the UK gives 100% support to the US (and the dollar)...this might change when Tony can, must take a 180� turn (become pro euro to survive politically) or takes over from John Major (Thather's poulain and successor) and leave the political scene for a Carlyle job !? UK "IN" EMU would make a Big euro-difference.
That's the Gold link in our comments about the UK (briefly explained for the newcomers on the forum).
Have a nice day, Ari.

DummyANI

(10/01/2003; 02:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109655)

Another viewpoint of Yen-dollar relations

Rumors said that money from USA were poured into Tokyo stock exchanges. According to Japanese Department of Treasuries data, the inflow of capital for Tokyo Stock Exchanges from Oct. 2002 to May 2003 were total 133 billion dollars.

Their average buying costs of TSE was 8,000 point (Nikkei225 index), and its Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars(from Oct. 2002 to May 2003).

If these stocks were already sold at Sep. 2003, their average selling costs of TSE was nearly 10,500 point. and 21.4 trillion Yen was gained. This 21.4 trillion Yen was waiting for a chance to exchange. If G-7 Dubai meeting was not opened, and Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars, Wall Streets money were exchanged into 175 billion dollars, net 42 billion dollars per year were transferred from Japan to USA.

Yesterday, the Yen-rate was 110 Yen per dollar, and a trading volume was huge. If 21.4 trillion Yen was exchanged yesterday, Wall Streets gained 194 billion dollars, net gain were 61 billion dollars per year. G-7 meeting was contributing to 19 billion dollars bonus to Wall Streets.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

The Invisible Hand

(10/01/2003; 03:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109656)

Fairness vs. Prudence

Aristotle mentioned in msg#: 109650 that Bush is now referring to fairness.
Where did Bush find that word?
Well, probably with the liberal (in the American sense) philosopher John Rawls who advocated that Justice was Fairness in his books "A Theory of Justice" (1971, revised in 1999), "Political Liberalism" (1993 and 1996) and "Justice as Fairness- A restatement" (2001)
As Milton Friedman wrote however in a 1977 Newsweek article ("Fair vs. Free"): "There is a role for fairness, but that role is in constructing general rules and adjudicating disputes about the rules, not in determining the outcome of separate activities."
Fairness is thus only applicable to court proceedings.
In daily life, the only obligation is to act prudently, i.e. with prudence which (the first) Aristotle called "phronesis". China should only act prudently which is what it is doing.
Bush is thus arguing as if he was an attorney directing the court how to solve the case. But there is no case and by the way who's the judge in a free market? What did Adam Smith say?

Remarx

(10/01/2003; 07:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109657)

What happens afterward?

I have recently joined the ranks of those who are believers in gold. But I am having trouble envisioning what happens when gold does reach a price peak relative to currency.

Whether it is US $450, $850 or $3,500 (assuming you have identified the peak correctly), is one supposed to sell for paper at that time before it drops? Or should he/she continue to hold it irrespective of the market price because of its long-term stability?

I am speaking here of the 5% - 15% security stash that is recommended for households, not that used for profit trading. I guess it may not be a choice at the time of peak price because the economy may be in such bad shape that it will have to be spent. But if that is not the case, shouldn't one hold it and pass it on as a legacy if it is never needed for emergencies?

If that is so, it would seem that even large fluctuations in the POG are almost irrelevant to those of us who are not traders. Or am I missing a large key point?

Basil

(10/01/2003; 08:26:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109658)

Remarx--What happens afterward??

My uncle always used to say(1985)-- own gold as insurance, but pray you never make a real bundle because if this happens the country/world will likely be in such totalmess the profit will be moot.

He had a point,but one's ability to survive cannot be harmed by having a well secured stash of PM imo.

Assuming law doesn't confiscate via outright theft or excessive profit taxes,there would hopefully come a tranquil time to unload gold for good farmland,other productive real estate,or move somewhere else.

But if conditions warrant ie chaotic,riots,inflation'starvation,eotwawki,etc-- maybe best kept hidden for one's heirs and a happier time.

Great Albino Bat

(10/01/2003; 09:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109659)

Bush talks about "FAIRNESS"

This is delicious irony. Sounds like something from Gilbert & Sullivan's "Mikado".

Buy gold today, and hum "Let the Punishment Fit the Crime" while you go fishing.

The GAB

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 09:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109660)

@ Remarx msg #109657

Great, fundamental question you are throwing in here !
Speculate, gamble or make your confetti work with trying your luck with any kind of gold-paper-trading. Buy, accumulate Physical Gold in Possession when you intend to preserve, accumulate, transfer your "WEALTH" ! It is the amount of Gold (your weight-?) that you are able to accumulate that says more about your wealth than the temporary, altering confetti-price you see it marked on the markets.
Gold has always been (past 5,000 yrs) and will remain (next 5,000 yrs) the ultimate confirmation/affirmation of real tangible "WEALTH". One's health,... water,...oxygen,...food,...love are other forms of basic wealth, but much less reliable for generational transfer.

One can impossibly project/identify a "price" peak for Gold-Wealth, into an unknown/uncertain future. Exchanging your Gold-Wealth for the confetti-numeraire is going back to square one. Than you have been holding Gold-Wealth for the purpose of speculation and might run the risk that you lose your wealth or the temporary confetti-fortune that you made with that wealth holding. Fortunes are made and lost. Gold wealth is designed to stay if one wishes it to stay. Not diamonds but GOLD is supposed to be for ever.

And Indeed Sir, that's why POG fluctuations are irrelevant for Gold Wealth holders !

The only reason why POG gets/deserves so much attention NOW, is that we are questioning/quessing Gold's chances for re-valuation...re-confirmation of its wealth definition.
Everybody "finally" agrees that Gold has been (still is) manipulated * price-wise * for the reasons that are elaborated in the CPM archives.

Americans saw their Gold confiscated and weren't allowed to possess Gold Wealth for the next 40 years. Then 30 years of Gold manipulation ! That's almost similar to 70 years of communism that finally imploded without one single drop of blood !!! Not that Gold and communism have something in common, but the timespan (70 yrs) during wich people can be fooled/brainwashed is coincidently similar.

There should only be ONE SINGLE reason for Gold accumulation, being the consolidation of one's "wealth" regardless of the price at the moment one decides to do so !!! I, personally believe we will see back those Golden times, within our (my) lifetime.

Gold will commonly be called-named "WEALTH", again...when the existing monetary dollar-system has become unworkable for the service of the economy and the (old) golden alternative(s) pop up again. If Gold was really death and fossiled, no interventions (containment)(confiscation-banning) wouldn't have been necessary. But our wonderfull monetary system needs more and more and MORE intervention as time goes by. Cfr. un-natural, un-workable communism !!!

Don't tell us you joined the gold-ranks "recently" ! Your question is a very smart one ! Thanks for sharing it here.

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 09:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109661)

Further dollar-decline....

...and an *organized* flight into stocks (higher) and bonds (lower IRs-higher bondprices), initially !!! Another BIGGG HUGEEEEE sucker-rally into already, absurdly OVERVALUED, worthless paperrrrrrrrrr !

The propagandists of the so called "recovery" (a jobless one = modern) get a helping hand as to make the non existant recovery a self-fulfilling happening. Will NOT work guys.

Ford-Belgium cuts 3,000 jobs (more later) ! �/$ pierces 1,17 - $/yen 1,10 ! Euroland exporters have hedgded the dollar at 1,20. POG remains frozen ! Stockprices recover (humm) and the unemployed see their stocks rising at home. Cynical, isn't it ?

Wish to borrow BB's oneliner,...interesting times !

contrarian

(10/01/2003; 10:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109662)

stock crash?

Not to make this forum about stocks, but I'm wondering if we gold folks, myself included, are counting on a stock crash that may not happen soon? Food for thought, anyways...any thoughts anyone? (this posting was from gold eagle forum)

Rats! Looks like no crash this year! Maybe not much of a sell-off iether-I highly respect Bernie Schaeffer & he makes
(richard640) Oct 01, 09:04

good points here!
From Schaeffer Research
"The economy is on track for accelerated, non-inflationary growth. The huge deficits and the weak dollar are
positives rather than negatives. The Fed can keep interest rates low for as long as they please. And inflation
is not, and will not be, a problem."
Consensus view of "the usual suspect" economists,

September 2003
"You can't always get what you want. But if you try sometimes well you just might find you get what you
need."
The Rolling Stones
The prevailing view of the community of economists is so over-the-top rosy and so widely held that it simply
begs for a contrarian take. And the fact that this constituency has time and again proven to be so shockingly
inept in their forecasting adds an understandable sense of urgency for those of us of the contrarian
persuasion.
But the active contrarians (read "short sellers") are unlikely to get what they want (read "a stock market
tumble or, better yet, a crash"). Why? 1. Because there are way too many short sellers. 2. Because they've
shorted way too many shares. 3. Because they've been shorting the wrong stocks. 4. Because cheap put
options are being purchased by weak longs that keep them in the game and prevent them from panicking on
pullbacks.
A more rigorous explanation is contained in the above quote from Taleb. The "rare event" (in this case, a
stock market crash) cannot occur unless the market is unprepared for it. Certainly one can argue that equity
mutual fund managers (who hold little cash) and Wall Street (which recommends holding little cash) are not
prepared for a crash. But my perception is that a growing proportion of those fully invested in equities have
taken out some protection in the form of put options, and a portfolio protected by puts becomes exempt from
panic liquidation. There are, for example, open put options equivalent to well over 100 million shares the
Nasdaq- 100 Trust (QQQ) in the front October month.
Beyond the increasing prevalence of put protection, the huge and growing short interest in exchange-traded
funds, such as the QQQ (which is currently shorted to the tune of over 300 million shares) and in low-priced
tech stocks, also indicates a market that is prepared for a crash. Not only must short interest be covered on
rallies (thus producing fuel for further gains), but short interest represents shares that have been "pre-sold."
And shares that have been "pre-sold" represent shares that will not be sold of market decline.
Looking for an example of a market that was ripe for panic? Let's turn to 1987. Back in the weeks ahead of
the October 1987 crash, the strategy of selling naked put options was hugely popular as the belief spread that
the market could only continue to rise. In fact, naked put selling was so prevalent that the premium levels on
out-of-the-money S&P 100 Index (OEX) put options were actually lower than the premiums on comparable
call options - a situation that has never repeated itself subsequent to the 1987 crash. So not only was the
market ahead of the 1987 crash not "pre-sold" and not "put protected," but there were huge open-ended bets
that the market would not even decline by more than a few percent. And when the market began to weaken,
the monstrous exposure to loss of the naked put sellers resulted in a full-blown panic.
But will the economists then get what they want, with their happy consensus view proving to be correct? I
view this as extremely doubtful. As I see it, the shorts will get what they "need" in terms of a market that will
not cave until they are forced to capitulate big time. And the economists will get what they need in terms of an
economy in 2004 that is disappointing, perhaps to extreme." (September 25, 2003)

Jacob Marley

(10/01/2003; 10:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109663)

Remarx - Large and key point---

Forgive me as I do not have time to give this full treatment (the Trail will give you as good a treatment of this as you need though). Basically, the dilemma you describe is based in a world view that still sees there to be this endless struggle between gold and some global currency that is by design to be in competition with gold (obviously here this has been the US dollar these past XX years). The gist of the coming days is that nations, whether through the vehicle of the Euro, some Islamic nations thru their gold dinar and its concepts, or China (should they decide to go their own way, and not align directly with the euro faction), will be able to wean themselves, and consequently large portions of the worlds economic product, from the US dollar paradigm -- that is this currency that is endlessly in competition with gold.

That having occurred, any of the above, or any combination of the above is a gold-friendly outcome. Gold detente, instead of gold entente. So, the fears you are concerned about -- which are basically, "well, gold goes up in times of peril, but as soon as the dollar economies get their acts together, gold goes back down as stability is again attained." Well that won't hold true here in quite the same way.

True, a goodly chunk of gold's appreciation in this cycle will occur as a result of manifesting dollar inflation (manifesting is a key word here). This is the one-off you are focusing on. Timing would be important here, as either a re-strengthening of the entente'd dollar would cause gold to inversely reciprocate back to where it started, or the economies catching up and the principal of monetary neutrality taking effect (ie. where they just add zeroes to the price, but the net effect after time is nada, since you are now earning extra zeroes, too.) would cancel out your gains.

A transition to a gold-detente paradigm however will allow gold to also gain in real value, a value level that has been artificially suppressed not just for the days of the dollar's reign, but effectively in degrees all the way back to King Alfred.

Every time an economic system develops around fixing a nominal value to the metal unit, eventually notes acting as proxies that are somehow redeemable for the metal units end up circulating too. It is here that a gold-entente is created. Human dynamics expressed in their banking and financing systems only work to force this tension to its breaking point and then some. And then some more... It is the old story of people always lending/selling what they don't have, and others borrowing/buying what they cannot afford or satisfactorily collateralize. This leads to all the efforts that can be mustered to at first keep the proxy unit at par with the backing metal, even though these proxies get inflated to the heavens, and after parity is understood to be something you are supposed to laugh at, the system then breaks, and we move on to something else. This is the currency time line that is often spoken of here.

What is unique in this day, is that the major powers in varying flavors are designing and deploying monetary units that stem from gold friendly banking paradigms: ECB marks its gold reserves to market. China/Russia, and others publicly announcing that they intend to increase their gold reserves. Dinar as a circulating, "UN"denominated currency unit. China encouraging and opening up a physical gold trading market. WA that gold will "remain an important element of global monetary reserves". And the beat goes on. This, for whatever the results are politically, and whatever bumps may be brought about socially, are fundamentally obviously gold-DEtente-ish moves. Ie. no functional tension between gold and the money (the banking and financing systems).

Bottom line, gold will reach new AND permanent valuations. For those who were smart enough to have purchased in the 200s, they will never lose that. Gold will never in our lifetimes be so cheep again. So, you will have it for your savings. Savings are something you sometimes use, sometimes not use. You sell some and spend it, you save the rest and give it your kids. Giants do this. Just follow in their footsteps.

Gandalf the White

(10/01/2003; 10:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109664)

HERE IT IS, Sir Smeagol --- Thanks for the opportunity to enter a RIDDLE

Smeagol (09/30/03; 23:53:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 109648)
****** A Riddle *****
===
Thanks Sir Smeagol and Sir Aristotle for the Question ~
First of all --- IF ANY of these three, Gold, Silver OR nickel, DOUBLE in a very short timeframe, it will because something DISASTEROUS has happened ! I and the Hobbits do not wish that to happen. As the US$ declines because of its almost freely exchange for the work efforts of the world's productive peoples, the PRICE of the most IMPORTANT WEALTH reserve ( GOLD ) will SLOWLY increase ! THAT is the GOOD increase of VALUE !
Increased industrial demand is the only way that Silver and nickel have of a doubling in price ! To obtain that result, the workforce in the USA must start to produce SOMETHING physically that requires silver and/or nickel.
DOES anyone think that will ocurr soon ? NOPE !
THEREFORE -- I must conclude that GOLD will possibly DOUBLE first -- BUT I SURE HOPE that it ocurrs VERY SLOWLY, as my heart can not take many MORE MAJOR DISASTERS !
<;-)

Gondolin

(10/01/2003; 11:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109665)

Belgian 109654 UK and gold

Belgian,

I concur with your (and I believe Anothers') viewpoint on the position of the UK with regard to support for either the USD or the euro- eventually it seems that they will go one or the other, and all indicators other than common anglo roots and history would suggest the euro must eventually be the way the UK must move.Contentious that comment sounds I know and I believe the UK has been dismissed on this forum I know as 'a lost and directionless Island'.

Within the UK (and EU) there is no VAT on gold transactions. This must be surely the ONLY thing tangible or not, that is not taxed in the UK. Can anyone explain why such a useless relic of little worth has escaped Gordon Browns rapacious tax clutches? Is this because certain elements of society possibly use bullion as their main tax dodge? For an anti gold establishment the Government actually makes gold ownership in the UK look extremely attractive in the current low inteest and high tax environment.

Comments anyone (WAC I knpow you may have views on this as a fellow UK resident).

Paper Avalanche

(10/01/2003; 11:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109666)

@ Jacob Marley (10/1/03; 10:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109663)

Sir Jacob Marley,

My hat is off to you. That was one of the best summations of what this forum is all about that I have seen in a long time. I will be emailing my freinds / family a copy of that post and a link to this fine forum.

To the gang:

I nominate this post for the Hall of Fame. Any seconds?

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

Remarx

(10/01/2003; 11:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109667)

@Belgian, Basil, Jacob Marley: Thanks!

I thank you (for myself and on behalf of my children) for your collective thoughts. I went back to the ABCs book and re-read the part on gold as a store of wealth. The gist there and here seems to be that forever "saving until needed" is the wisest course, ignoring its fluctuating value in currency except as an indicator for changes in monetization.

P.S.
I second the nomination of Marley's message. (But I also thought Basil's and Belgian's points were good.)

Trurl

(10/01/2003; 12:10:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109668)

Please tell me why

This was seen a few moments ago on an "internet portal" site:

Market Overview
Wed 1:53pm ET
The blue-chip averages spent the last half hour drifting sideways along their session highs, while the Nasdaq continued to reach higher and set a fresh session high... The gold sector remains the only laggard of note... Its weakness coincides with a -$1.10 decline in the price of gold to $385/oz...more

------------------------------------

It might be worth contemplating why somebody feels compelled to use half of a short market summary to tell small investors that gold is down a buck.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/01/2003; 12:33:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109669)

Build your wealth. Call for bullion at 1% over cost, FREE shipping on 25oz. ---- (800) 869-5115

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

doco

(10/01/2003; 13:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109670)

Patriot Act makes banks pry into new accounts

Patriot Act makes banks pry into new accounts
By Laura Bruce � Bankrate.com

"To deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools, and for other purposes."
-- From the Patriot Act, Congress, Oct. 24, 2001

The anti-money-laundering provisions of the Patriot Act are about to be noticed by consumers who open new accounts with financial institutions. Even if you have a checking account with a bank and you decide to open an IRA or a savings account with the same bank, you can expect to be asked some prying questions that may make you uncomfortable.

Banks, savings associations, credit unions, brokerages and mutual funds are expected to comply with the provisions as of Oct. 1.

Background checking
Here is what is required when a new account is opened:

A. The institution must verify the identity of any person seeking to open an account by obtaining customer identification that includes:

1. Name
2. Date of birth
3. Address
4. Identification number -- a taxpayer identification number for American citizens or a government-issued document for noncitizens.

B. The institution must maintain records of the information used to verify the person's identity.

Originally, the regulations required financial institutions to keep a photocopy of whatever document was used for identification. That rule has been changed; they will only have to keep a written record of the document.

C. Determine whether the person appears on any lists of known or suspected terrorists or terrorist organizations provided to the financial institution by any government agency.

Those provisions may seem fairly harmless, but Boston-based Dalbar, a financial industry consulting firm, says institutions have the ability to ask much more intrusive questions should they decide it's necessary.

For instance, Dalbar says institutions could include questions about:

Other accounts with links to the customer
Nature of the customer's business and occupation
Name and address of employer
Customer's wealth
Source of customer's income
Customer's tax status
Source of customer's funds used to open account
Customer's investment objective
"The regulations require a very limited amount of documentation: a valid drivers license or passport for a foreigner, valid street address and date of birth. They'll also check the suspect database," says Charles O'Neill of Dalbar.

"But elsewhere in the regulations it's stated very clearly that the institution has an obligation beyond those requirements. The institution is still responsible for knowing their customers."

O'Neill says how much scrutiny you're subjected to could depend, in part, on the nature of your transactions and the amount of money.

"If you open an account with $100,000, you'll undoubtedly be asked for more than a driver's license. You may be asked where you have other financial accounts and crosschecked against other financial institutions and credit reports.

"If you ordinarily maintain an average balance of $3,000 and over the course of three months you deposited two or three checks for $25,000 each, those transactions could be flagged. But it's also likely that based on their knowledge of you, perhaps you have a mortgage with them, they would cross reference you against other accounts and determine there is no suspicious or illegal activity."

If an institution does suspect suspicious activity, don't expect to be told of an investigation. The law states that "the financial institution, director, officer, employee, or agent many not notify any person involved in the transaction that the transaction has been reported."O'Neill says some customers might simply be notified that their account has been frozen.

"People could be sensitive about not being told why their account is frozen," O'Neill says. "That will happen rarely. There will be some circumstances in which it will occur where the individual is perfectly innocent. But you can be confident that when a Suspicious Activity Report is filed, that particular matter will be addressed by federal authorities very quickly.

"Consider that several hijackers opened bank accounts and obtained credit cards with false Social Security numbers just a couple years ago. If there's over-documentation now, to me it's reasonable."

Banks vs. bad guys
Krista Shonk, regulatory specialist with America's Community Bankers, says banks have long been required to report suspicious activity and the reason customers aren't told is because doing so could compromise the investigation.

Shonk says banks will continue to check all customers against a list of known terrorists and money launderers that's issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, but she adds that there is some concern about a list generated by law enforcement agencies of people who are merely suspects.

"The OFAC list is bona fide bad guys. The 314A is a list of people suspected of money laundering or terrorism," says Shonk. "It's flexible. The concern is these are people who are suspected. Banks need to check customers against the 314A list, but they shouldn't use it to blackmail people."

But Shonk agrees with other banking industry representatives that most legitimate consumers will hardly notice the implementation of the new regulations.

"Generally, most customers will see absolutely no change," says John Hall, spokesman for the American Bankers Association. "Banks have a long history of doing due diligence in account openings. Our industry has always had the Bank Secrecy Act, which deals with account opening procedures. This is just codifying what's already in place."

Little banks feel big pressure
But some institutions clearly are struggling to comply with the regulations.

First Community Bank in Whitehall, Ohio, has three branches and a total of 35 employees.

"It's a lot of work for a small bank," says Kristy Nugent, vice president, comptroller and compliance officer.

"We have so few people to do this. It's additional work on top of their regular duties."

Being a small town bank also means customers may be a bit more put off by employees asking too many questions.

"The customers come here because they want to know you on a personal basis, but they don't necessarily want to give you all their personal information," Nugent adds.

"They could have a checking account with us and if they come in and open a savings account or take out a loan, we'll have to go through the background check and they won't like that.

"We have signs in the lobbies saying that we'll be doing background checks. This way they can turn around and walk out."

One thing that will likely affect all customers is the increased costs involved with implementation of the anti-money-laundering provisions of the Patriot Act.

Dalbar estimates that labor costs involved in opening a new account will jump from current costs of about $7.75 to an estimated $22 under the new rules.

"One way or another, financial institutions will have to find a way to recover (the costs) and ultimately some portion will trickle down to the customer," says O'Neill. "I don't think we've seen a lot of evidence of that yet. Maybe companies can absorb a certain percentage, but on an ongoing basis, depending on the absolute cost of compliance, it's most likely customers will pay."
-- Posted: Sept. 30, 2003

Gandalf the White

(10/01/2003; 13:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109671)

WATCH the US$ !!!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0IF the US$ drops much more from this level where it is RIGHT NOW --- there is no bottom support !!!!! Look at the six month chart at the above LINK See that little blip below 92.0 ?
When the US$ drops below THAT -- then watch the GOLDEN ROCKET.
THIS is the item that shall have a MAJOR potential impact on the POG !!!
NOTHING ELSE matters !!!!!!
<;-)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/01/2003; 13:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109672)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 14:10:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109673)

Warning Warning Warning

The Japanese Ministry of Finance has proposed raising the debt ceiling from $700 billion to $900 billion. The reason - to defend the U.S. dollar through currency market intervention efforts. This is getting very "interesting".

- Black Blade

DryWasher

(10/01/2003; 14:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109674)

Your Money In Iraq

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst092903.htm
From Ron Paul's current weekly column, linked above, and right on target again.

SNIP

"The stark reality is that the federal government will fund the open-ended occupation of Iraq either by raising taxes, borrowing overseas, or printing more money. All three options are bad for average Americans.

It's important the American people know exactly what they will be paying for in Iraq. The $87 billion requested is such a huge sum that it seems meaningless to most of us. The details, however, will astound anyone who resents seeing their tax dollars spent overseas.

The following are just some of the administration's requests:

-$100 million for several new housing communities, complete with roads, schools, and a medical clinic;

-$20 million for business classes, at a cost of $10,000 per Iraqi student;

-$900 million for imported kerosene and diesel, even though Iraq has huge oil reserves;

-$54 million to study the Iraqi postal system;

-$10 million for prison-building consultants;

-$2 million for garbage trucks;

-$200,000 each for Iraqis in a witness protection program;

-$100 million for hundreds of criminal investigators; and

-$400 million for two prisons, at a cost of nearly $50,000 per bed!

I doubt very seriously that most Americans would approve of their tax dollars being used to fund these projects in Iraq."

END SNIP

DryWasher comment: More reasons to protect your life savings by investing them in PHYSICAL GOLD, held in your possession in a safe place where those who would take it from you can't find it.

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 14:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109675)

Gondolin / Contrarian

G: No tax on Gold is evidence of the recognition that Gold represents/embodies, Wealth ! Wealth is one's ultimate/naked/unencumbered, ownership. The Gold Wealth is "ENTIRELY" yours in contrast with for example house-ownership that has always been taxed ! Not taxing Gold is the confirmation of one's fundamental right on full ownership. As soon as the UK abolished all Gold taxing, the gold smuggling from Belgium accross the channel stopped immediately. Has been replaced by sigaret trafficing (heavy taxing).
There must be very fundamental reasons and purposes why the existing (very low) gold taxes were abolished. Indeed, I also see it as an official "invitation" to wealth accumulation for wise individuals who want to take their fundamental right/liberty to ownership, literally. State's goldreserves are also to be considered as state-wealth. Responsible state want their citizens to do exactly the same and be responsible at their individual level.
WAC, do you agree or do you have another vision on this ?

C : FOA already signaled that he did not believed in a dramatic stockmarket crash. The Dow would be "printed up", permanently. This to evidence that the dollar is at the end of its lifetime and that stockprices expressed in dollars are therefor meaningless as to indicate their value or worthlesness. What is a share of 100 dollar worth if those 100 dollar are constantly devalued and lose purchasing power in a situation of hyper-inflation !?

In other words...we are going to face a *valuation-crisis* due to the demise of the dollar-reserve. This could explain WHY so much paper remains obscenely over-valued in dollar-terms in wich the absolute majority keeps on believing.
Increasing Twin deficits + a declining, helicopter dollar currency... and interest rates remain close to zero !!!-???
This is completely absurd and totally irrational, from any standpoint !

I still believe in a coming stockmarket crash for other (rather economic than monetary) reasons. Many businesses/enterprises have a core, remaining economic value. I think we must go back to a situation where this economic value can be expressed in "correct" monetary (price) worth. Stocks will imo not outrun any hyper-price-inflationary drama. Monetary collapse will also affect the global economy and stock-worth.

Nobody, "today", believes that anything "dramatic", might probably happen ! I do hear this statement more often. May we conclude that some degree of "doubt" about an eventual drama is sneeking into some observators' minds ?
A renewed wave of Western unemployment is raging !!! Debt is a disaster but FAST INCREASING DEBT + SUSTAINED HIGH AND BROAD UNEMPLOYMENT might (must/will) lead to a catastrophy !? Will the old grandma's remedies (currency devaluation) work this time ? All,...ALLLLLL hens on deck to avoid the looming catastrophy at ANY cost ! That's what I do see and interprete in the actions taken, as such.

Our Political Economies have resulted in an overstretched and over-saturated/over-stimulated, economic activity with great imbalances embedded. This system needs an overdrive-growth, simply to remain functioning.

Not a jobless recovery but an economy with less and less real jobs. Oh, sorry...a highly *productive* economy where less jobs need to be filled, because the remaining jobs are so terrible effective.

Sorry for having derived a bit too far away from your initial question on a possible stockmarket crash. I'm more worried/scared about these stockmarkets that stubbornly refuse to crash than off a good old fashioned melt down and relance. Maybe things are that bad that we even can't afford a healthy downwards re(de)valuation of stocks (or bonds=rising IRs) !!!-??? Yep, a stockmarketcrash + high rising IRs, NOW...would kill the dollar imvho. And the consensus that the US-economy must/shall pull the whole world-economy is still alive and kicking ! An extremely dangerous premisse.

TA/TI is strongly indicating that stockmarkets should decline, now ! But the above opinion is a good (fundamental) excuse for the imperfectness of TA/TI. Will see.

Belgian

(10/01/2003; 14:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109676)

@BB

As far as I could understand from media comments...the US is issueing more US Treasuries (loans) and the Japanese (Chinese) have to buy (are buying) and hold them !? I would like to hear a banker who wants to explain us how these things work in practice. Someone ? TIA.

Gondolin

(10/01/2003; 15:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109677)

Jacob Marley 109663 (Any relation to Bob?)

Must concur with yourself and Paper Avalanche. I second this nomination.

Apologies if this is late, I always read UP the page.

The last 2 paragraphs of your insightful contribution sum up what has to my mind been clearly been developing, but which I have not been able to so concisely summarise, to be a worldwide effort from every quarter to protect themselves and to strengthen themselves against the coming global shift in values and understanding of the global economic reality.

Hats off to you. And yes, The Beat Goes On.

Cometose

(10/01/2003; 15:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109678)

STOCKMARKET CRASH

Bernard Baruch was once asked what he thought the Stock Market was going to do ? His response was that he thought it was going to fluctuate.......

that's volatility .....it means it is going to go up and down......

FIrst you determine where we are in the business cycle and then you decide whether we are in a bull or bear market....If we are in a bear market the market is going to rise .....long term ...if we are in a bear market the market is going to fall long term.....

SOme people call March of 2000 the top of the bull market...Since that time we have according to those few , we have been in a bear market.....SInce that time, the earning of the S&P and the DOW (nasdaq doesn't have any earnings) have fallen faster than the prices of the companies....and therefore today we have astronomically high PEs still historically....At the end of a bear market , PEs are historically between 7- 12....and dividend yields are 5-7 % WE haven't gotten close to the end of the bear market.....and we are still in a bear market until the Dow and S&P better their records.....

So what can we expect in this Upward correction in this bearmarket......

Expect media pundits to tell fairy tales about the future of the economy .....

Expect insiders to be selling their shares ( last numbers indicate that insiders sold 48 dollars of stock for every 1 dollar they bought ; this is called distribution)....

Expect that after the big boys have sold their inventory of shares to the public (who thinks we are in a Stock market rally and now want to plunge back into stocks) to now take up huge short positions this fall as did Joe Kennedy in the 29 -33 rought...and depression that followed.....:THat's how they make their money .....by giving the suckers the burning match at these periods in time so that they can make a huge fortune on the short side after the media has set up the little guy , Seniors and other unknowing victims to take the fall.

Expect little in the way of capital investment to be made to help stimulate the economy because the guys that make those decisions know that this is not a RECOVERY....it's the prelude to a mess...

Always expect the unexpected......

Expect that the Trade numbers may be the spark the many use behind which to drop large numbers of shares on the markets to begin the ball rolling on and hideous ride downhill.

Expect the dollar to crater ......
The IMF has made its statement on this subject....

Don't believe the COnstruction Numbers......they are probably altered to include huge spending in Military and in IRAQ.....

Expect the Rally to turn into a Rought......

Someone is going to make a lot of money because ....."THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING TO FLUCTUATE"""

Aurion

(10/01/2003; 15:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109679)

Gold and the dollar

We often see gold rising on a lower dollar. This is an expected arbitrage relationship, as gold is priced in dollars. Next week, however, it is likely we�ll see both the dollar and gold strengthening. Gold will rise because of rising concerns about the stock market, while the dollar will win reprieve by foreign central banks, desperate to strengthen it. This will be a futile effort, and will be followed by the dollar heading south again, in a big way, while gold then catapults over the $400 bar. I predicted $402 for the Monday when gold shot up to $393, but the surge was beaten back down. Let�s see if this prediction pans out. If so, we will soon see the engines of the gold rocket going "throttle up". This gold investors is looking for a ride with a sign that says "Outer space or burst!"

Gondolin

(10/01/2003; 16:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109680)

Belgian: 109675

Belgian,

Thanks for your comments which were as I expected to hear from your good self. A further query to any at the Forum. As gold becomes accepted as a mainstream store of wealth , or equally as important to many, as a means of increasing wealth for those who hold it, is it not likely that Gordon Brown (or his successor!) will implement new taxes on gold, as Treasury of any Nation seeks to tax anything that they perceive as taxable.

Would this not be vigorously pursued as Gold enters a real long term relevance to the mainstream world financial system, and especially as soon as Joe 'I don't question paying my taxes' Sixpack jumps on board?

Again, this would be but another manifestation of theft of wealth by Government, albeit not as insidiously as through currency devaluation and inflationary monetary policies.

Or conversely would such arbitrary measures result in a black market in gold for those who seek not to pay unrighteous tax to the rapacious revenue-man?

Is it possible that excessive arbitrary taxation could become a means of suppressing the price of gold and sustaining the existing staus quo?

This is akin to the fear of confiscation of gold within the US that is often muted, and which has most recently been dismissed as un-democratic and unacceptable within a free market setting an example of free market ideals to the rest of the world in a time of conflicting geopolitical ideals.

Just thinking out loud, or as one of our valued posters would say, more Guano...

GratefulForGold

(10/01/2003; 16:37:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109681)

Amusing "tidbit" - Re: Oil

I've been cleaning bits of paper off my desk this afternoon. One post-it had written on it "2/28/03 -- (On CNBC) -- Diane Swonk (with Bank One) said oil will be back to $21/bbl in 6 months (after US occupies Iraq)."

I seldom make note of the outlandish forecasts (spoken with ever-so-much authority in their voices) that I hear on CNBC but for some reason I decided to "track" her statement. She is one of those so-calm, so-"right" personas that I felt compelled to make note of it.

I wish I had taken note of so many more "authorities" that CNBC has touted. Would make for an amusing read.

Lady GFG

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 17:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109682)

Grateful for Gold - Swonk

I find that most everything that Dianne Swonk says is almost always wrong. I remember her projections from over the last few years and they tend to be way off the mark. She was also one of the "Stock Market Cheerleaders" during the big dot.com bubble. I hope she says something negative about gold soon. It would be a good sign. ;-)

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

contrarian

(10/01/2003; 17:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109683)

Stock Crash?

thank you Belgian, Cometose for your comments!

I just want the whole bloody stock market mess to get on with it, and fall if it's gonna fall. I placed my bets that stocks would fall, and have been sitting tight for a year now. Getting tired of waiting.

Frankly, a year later, I'm now more fearful of paper of any sort, and wish I had put that money into gold.

Good point about shorts being set up like Joe Kennedy in 29. It does seem to be more pervasive now though, the shorting thing. So maybe some of what Shaeffer says is true.

But perhaps the dollar will be the catalyst, followed by foreigners withdrawing from the US stock market. I believe they own 13% of stocks.

All through this, of course, gold has been the better investment.

Great Albino Bat

(10/01/2003; 17:26:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109684)

Gondolin - he is the GAB's contribution of guano

Gold!

Gold is not for weaklings or fools, as I said sometime ago.

Wars are fought for gold; men fight and die for it, savagely; always have, and always will.

Yes, you will have to use all your wits to keep what gold you have, and a great deal of gumption to face down attempts to take it from you. (Note: Newsletter writer John Myers' father, Vern Myers, goldbug par excellence, buried some gold on his property. And what do you know? Someone dug it up and made off with it! Can't be too careful!)

Gold is so powerful in men's minds, that it is virtually above any man-made law. Taxes? Gold will find its way into the hands of men who don't care about taxes.

"So you want to buy some of my gold, my friend?"

"Yes; but what about the taxes?"

"Taxes, my friend, are your problem, not mine. You want my gold, you pay my price. Otherwise, look for it elsewhere, and mucho good luck to you! Oh, and I don't issue any receipt for payment, either."

The GAB is NOT an Anarchist. Government is necessary to civilized society. But - it better keep its grubby hands off my gold!

Some day - it may be very, very far off - when this whole world has suffered so much and billions may have died in wars, plagues and starvation, humanity will get back to reality, which it has been studiously avoiding for the past couple of hundred years. Gold will be in use. A lot of silly ideas will have perished with the billions of humanity wiped off the face of earth.

Maybury: "Do everything you have promised to do, and do not encroach upon others' property or rights." Golden words.

The basics will prevail once again. But, it will be painful getting there.

Gold is for warriors, not for Mr. Milquetoast. Out of the warrior class, is born the Aristocracy. The true aristocracy - not the degenerate weaklings born of several generations of aristocrats who have forgotten their code - flaunts gold as a symbol of its power.

These are strong words, but this is what we face: every man for himself. No one is going to protect your gold for you.
It's you and your wits against the world.

Tough guano from the GAB, this evening!

Great Albino Bat

(10/01/2003; 17:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109685)

Correction:

Should say:

Gondolin: here is the GAB's contribution...

Max Rabbitz

(10/01/2003; 17:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109686)

Make Believe Numbers.

The following snippet is from an S&P analysis sent out by TD Waterhouse earlier this week. I think they are trying to deceive me.

"We expect operating earnings on the S&P 500 to rise 17% to 53.76 this year. Based on our expectation of a yearend close at 1085, that's a price-to-earnings ratio of 20. S&P's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall notes that the 20 P/E is equal to the average since 1988. We see operating earnings increasing another 14% to 61.07 in 2004. Even more impressive is the expected growth in S&P Core Earnings, which includes items such as options and pension expenses that companies tend to exclude in operating earnings. We see Core Earnings on the "500" increasing 78% this year and another 27% in 2004. In 2002, Core Earnings were only 51% of the index's operating earnings. That should rise to 78% this year and 87% in 2004, based on our current projections."

Max.......... Something called "operating earnings" is used as the standard for calculating PE ratios. This is what used to be called "proforma earnings" until the term got discredited a few years ago. I guess "core earnings" is what is reported to the government as real earnings. Please note that the make believe operating earnings are used to calculate relative PE values going back to 1988 (before our accountants became so clever). That's because the gap between make believe and reality earnings just keeps getting bigger. They state real earnings are only 51% of the make believe numbers. WOW!!! Only 51%!!! This means the real PE is about 40 and last year's real S&P earnings was only 23.4! But then they juice it up with the expectation of this gap closing this year to only 78% and then 87% next year. They don't say how these profits are going to explode when most everyone seems a little heavy in debt. How are they going to do this with their pension, health care, and stock option obligations? I suspect the plan is to use inflated stock valuations to reduce the need to fund pension programs and increase share price of their other equity investments, reported as earnings. Just like the last bubble. Cheap money can be borrowed to plow into retirement funds, and stock options can be restructured. For how long? Just as long as the players, I mean investors, don't get nervous and the Asians keep taking our dollars. For me, I sleep better with gold.

Boilermaker

(10/01/2003; 17:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109687)

Jacob Marley (10/1/03; 10:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109663

Excellent post. My thanks for your contribution to our forum.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(10/01/2003; 17:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109688)

Begian

It's good to see you back in full form. Your obsevations are most appreciated. You have the skill and memory to pull together recent history into a coherent analysis of the future. May your contributions continue and your future be bright.

Boilermaker

Cometose

(10/01/2003; 18:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109689)

dollar down????

GOld holding steady ........HOW LONG?????LORD?
Is this an indication that indeed the dollar is about to have a short lived bounce rally ....????

WHatever!!!

I think that this OCTOBER is going to be one to remember.

Robert

(10/01/2003; 18:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 109690)

sales taxes on gold bullion

The subject of sales taxes on gold bullion is very interesting. Here in the US, sales taxes on gold bullion are charged in some states, although the rules are occasionally a little bit complicated. The federal government taxes capital gains realized by selling precious metals at a higher rate than stocks and bonds. Until recently, the situation was similar in Europe. You had to pay sales taxes when purchasing bullion. However, this has changed since the introduction of the Euro. Presently, all EU member states (including Great Britain) do not charge sales taxes on gold anymore. Interestingly, the sales tax does apply when purchasing all other precious metals (silver, platinum, palladium etc). The question arises therefore why did EU governments (who are always in a desperate need for new tax revenue) exempt gold from the sales tax?

The answer to this question favored by our friend Belgian is that the Euro concept is not based on suppresion of gold (as is the case with the US Dollar). According to Belgian, the Euro stands for free gold and the ECB wants to underline this by exempting gold from sales taxes.

Personally, I do not believe that this is true. If I remember correctly, the tax free status of gold was negotiated among EU member states and it is in fact part of the Maastricht treaty. That treaty does not provide for any way out of the currency union. Given that the success of the Euro could not have been guaranteed in advance, freeing gold from taxation was an insurance policy - a hidden way out of the currency union - for the worst case scenario that the Euro would collapse shortly after its introduction. If that interpretation is correct, then the EU sales taxes on gold will be introduced again, as soon as the Euro is well established and accepted as a reserve currency on world markets (which may take many more years).

It is well known that shortly before the introduction of the Euro, cautious European savers moved lots of their money into Dollars and Swiss Franks. In order to keep that capital at home, it was natural for the authorities to attract some of that capital flow into gold. That may have been another motivation for the decision to remove sales taxes on gold.

Today we enjoy the unique priviledge that we can buy gold without paying sales taxes. That will change one day. In a few years, when the competition from gold becomes unbearable for fiat currencies (we are not there yet), the governments will be forced to respond. I do not believe in confiscation. However, I do think it will be very likely that a special sales tax on gold and other precious metals (in order to fight "money laundering" and "terrorism") will be introduced. The tax will be raised to the point of 100% (or more) where the demand for physical gold will weaken substantially. Paper gold on the other hand, will of course continue to be tax free.

Personally, I am very grateful to our governments that they do not only keep the price of gold artificially low (by gold sales and gold leases), but that they also allow us to buy gold without charging sales taxes. I can only hope that this condition will last for a very long time, so I can continue to accumulate cheap gold for my retirement in 20 years.

Cavan Man

(10/01/2003; 19:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109691)

@ Max

Try The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. It is one of only a handful of investment books you'll ever need to read. Today, most of the people selling securities are less than intelligent IMHO

silvercollector

(10/01/2003; 19:36:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109692)

To anyone in the know!!

The Financial Post had a lead article today claiming that PM stocks were fully valued. Indeed Goldcorp was 'discounting' gold at $700/oz., several others were quoted at $500/oz. and the vast majority of PM stocks had ALREADY 'discounted' gold at over $400.

a) Did anyone see this article today?
b) Are these stocks so richly valued (already)?

This is important.

Thanks in advance.

sc

Aristotle

(10/01/2003; 20:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109693)

Robert, I dunno quite what to say about your 109690

Try as I might, I can't make any logical sense or direction out of your third paragraph. Part of the problem is probably my own shortcomings due to steadfast interpretive biases (formed over longish periods of previously unbiased scrutiny, call it "education" if you will,) biases that you've rejected outright. (You said: "According to Belgian, the Euro stands for free gold and the ECB wants to underline this by exempting gold from sales taxes. Personally, I do not believe that this is true.")

So as it stood, I expected that I'd be able to deduce from your third paragraph the rationale why you don't share that view, but I confess, I can't make heads or tails of it even after applying very liberal interpretations. Can you or anyone else on your behalf try to shed a little more light on your unique spin on this?

I'm also struggling to find the ultimate logic or sense behind your concluding paragraph. If I may paraphrase, you say you're glad the governments are keeping Gold's price under long term control as an aid to your more hefty acquisition for use in retirement.

Here's where I've got to ask the all important question. If this iron grip of control fails to relax or be abolished (de facto or de jure, I don't care which,) then where exactly are we putting our faith (and what's the payoff) if we're holding a heap of this value-controlled substance at the time in our elderly lives when we need to cash some of it in to extract real-world value in exchange for our various earthly needs?

Or to put this shortly, what have you to say to the folks who bought Gold abundantly in 1979, 1980 at prices from $500-$800, who have subsequently passed into retirement years seeing now the government's iron grip on Gold's price as an impediment to them extracting fair value from this Physical Asset? Would you rather this not happen to you?

This iron grip must come off to release/unshroud the fair value for all market eyes to see, and from most appearances that I've observed in the development of my current bias/understanding, the Europeans and the Chinese, perhaps with a little help from other friends, are intent upon seeing this fair act done.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Cavan Man

(10/01/2003; 20:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109694)

Tony Blair, Euro, Iraq

Perhaps I underestimate Mr. Blair. If a certain British PM were intelligent enough and desired Euro convergence badly enough for whatever reasons, perhaps he would back the US "coalition" knowing in due time the truth would be outed resulting in England making an about face and facing east; seeking to disassociate itself with deplorable folly. THOUGHTS for the gristmill upon which the mind is....well... if not sharpenend then at least exercised.

DummyANI

(10/01/2003; 20:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109695)

@contrarian (10/01/03; 17:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 109683)

Stock Crash? ---- Perhaps after once more reboundIn order to go to south NY-Stock Market, they must go up just before the crash moment.
Background of the weak dollars, more than Japanese trade-surplus money were transferred from Japan to USA, its volume was nearly equal to 194 billion dollars.

If 21.4 trillion Yen was exchanged from Yen to dollar without G-7 Dubai comments, Yen went south at 130 Yen per dollar.

At present, Wall Streets gained nearly 194 billion dollars from Japan, they can lift up Dow-index and Nasdaq for a short term. I think the rebounds of NY-Stock Market will be continued until October 24, or October 28 2003. After 3 weeks or 4-weeks rebound, NY-Stock Market will go to south.

Goldendome

(10/01/2003; 21:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109696)

What a wonderous day of Postings!!!

I have been in "Awe", reading the posts and interactions of members this day. The level of thought and expression has been wonderful. The understanding and insight communicated to one another has been amazing. Thanks go out to one and all. ----Gdome

Chris Powell

(10/01/2003; 22:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109697)

Veneroso tells Calandra: Central banks are intervening against gold

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1700CBSMarketWatch Editor Thom Calandra gets explosive
remarks from Allianz Dresdner's Frank Veneroso, who
acknowledges that the central banks are suppressing
the price of gold as another form of currency
intervention.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Robert

(10/01/2003; 22:17:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109698)

Aristotle, let me try again

to explain why I believe that taxfree gold in Europe is a temporary affair. In order to understand my reasoning you must think about the difficulties member states in the EU were facing when negotiating a new common currency (the Euro). They agreed to give up their own monetary independence. In addition, they refused to specify conditions under which this decision could be reversed. Clearly, the involved national governments needed some kind of insurance that, if the historically unprecedented experiment of a common currency for a number of politically independent countries would fail, there would be some kind of exit door left. I believe that exit door was created by declaring that gold would be free of EU taxation and that the newly formed ECB would refrain from any attempt to manipulate the gold market (this explains among other things the so called "Washington agreement"). This condition if properly implemented does indeed provide the insurance against monetary abuse of individual European nations by the EU burocracy. It is precisely what Belgian calls "free gold". However, contrary to Belgian I believe that this insurance of "free gold" was not introduced in Europe for the sake of free gold. No, a temporarily free gold was the necessary price to pay in order to convince countries with a relatively strong currency (like Germany) to switch to a potentially weaker currency (the Euro). We read in newspapers that the EU continues to evolve to a political union. They talk about a common defense strategy and there is also talk already about the introduction of EU income taxes. As this trend continues and national sovereignity (including taxing power) is gradually shifted from individual countries to the EU burocracy in Bruxelles, the need for free gold will dissipate. This is the reason why I believe that sales taxes on gold will be reintroduced in Europe in a few years (once the Euro establishes sufficient reputation in the markets and the early concerns regarding the Euro become history).

Regarding your second point: If you already own plenty of gold, but lack cash (perhaps because you are already retired), clearly you hope for a fast rise of the price of gold so you can exchange a little of your gold against lots of cash in order to pay your bills. If, on the other hand, you are not retired yet and plan to receive a biwekly paycheck in fiat currency for a number of years, you are in a desperate need to convert some of that fiat into gold at the lowest price possible (in order to preserve as much as possible of the purchasing power of your earnings for the time of retirement). You are right by pointing out to the bitter personal consequences of this contradiction. In my opinion, this contradiction is further proof that gold is not wealth but a unique financial asset. Like all financial assets, gold is subject to the universal "buy low, sell high" strategy. If gold would indeed be wealth, nobody would ever sell gold.

Thanks for responding to my posting.

Chris Powell

(10/01/2003; 22:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109699)

Read John Embry's latest interviews on ROB-TV in Canada

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1703Transcripts of Sprott Asset Management President
John Embry's interviews on ROB-TV in Canada on
Tuesday.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(10/01/2003; 22:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109700)

Reg Howe saves Canada ...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1704...with a little instruction in gold:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1704

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 22:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109701)

Re: Silvercollector - Don't Worry - It Really Is Not Important

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=721F5F66-E7E6-48E7-B9EE-3F07215748E5
I read the article and the two quoted analysts (John Tumazos and Jared Muroff at Prudential Financial) are well known as gold bears. They missed out on the Bull Market altogether and Tumazos issued a "Sell" recommendation on Newmont when no analyst was issuing "sell" recommendations on any stock. Of course Newmont was selling at about $15 a share � (the lowest point) before marching ahead to a recent $41 a share (yep, good call eh?). I was not all that surprised by the article. Many gold mining shares are overvalued if you following the reasoning that the usual generic stock is usually considered fairly valued at the historical average of about a PE of 14. Given their reasoning we should consider that the stocks of almost all companies on all the world's exchanges as being wildly overvalued. However, the reasoning they used to value these gold shares is seriously flawed.

They simply discount the falling US dollar and dismiss deteriorating global economic conditions amid a "competitive currency devaluation. They also discount the soaring budget and current account deficits in the US where gold is "valued" in US dollars. What is interesting is that they don't really discuss expanding reserves (and resources for that matter) at some of these companies or several properties they have claim to that could and likely will eventually be developed. So using current valuation is a risky game for natural resource plays.

SO HOW DO YOU VALUE A GOLD MINING COMPANY?

Now first off, I am not pushing investment in gold mining shares here and for simple disclosure I do own shares in Goldcorp, Glamis, and Meridian. Since I am more familiar with these companies and their projects and they discuss Goldcorp let's use that one as an example here:

According to their research, "Goldcorp Inc. is discounting a gold price of US$830 to bring its shares into line with its net present value". OK, fine, the last time I checked Goldcorp was selling at a PE of about 30 or slightly more. Using historical averages of valuation as applied to the average ho hum generic company stock making widgets at a PE of about 14 then they are right about the $830 mark for Goldcorp using simpleton reasoning (my rough back of the envelope shows about $825 an ounce so that's about right).

However, they discount a great number of items that should be applied to value Goldcorp Inc. Goldcorp has another $200 million plus in cash, absolutely no debt whatsoever, is completely unhedged, etc. (all the goodies a Goldbug investing in gold mining shares would want if he truly believes that the POG will continue to rise). They also discount the $87 million plus of gold bullion they have stored away in a vault � (they don't even trust the US dollar or Canadian dollar enough either to put the cash and gold to work in alternative investments). Goldcorp is not the "one trick pony" with one mine. They also have a small producing mine soon due for closure in S. Dakota (Wharf Mine) in a couple of more years and a mineral (soda ash?) mine in Canada, but more importantly they have interests in and made investments in some other promising projects, miners and explorationists that gives them a right to a portion of the proceeds if successful and that makes them potentially a Gold Royalty Company in the making as well eliminating a good portion of risk. And perhaps most importantly these alleged analysts don't even say a word about recent exploration results at their flagship mine at Red Lake released just last week of several large/thick extremely high grade ore zones vastly expanding reserves that will continue to be mined at very low cost (they are already the lowest cost producer in the world). Oh yeah, they also pay a dividend six times a year and have increased the payout occasionally (though it is admittedly a small payout).

So you can see why some investors see Goldcorp Inc as being worth twice as much on a PE basis than the historical average of a typical stock of some generic company producing widgets. These guys obviously did not do their homework or at the very least were extremely sloppy at it. But I do not think that they are interested in Gold Mining stocks as much as they are simply anti-gold, have been for years, and that their true agenda is to convince investors and potential investors to stay away from hard assets and to buy Prudential Financial paper plays and pay them to use their services (maybe making more great "Sell" calls like Tumazos did on Newmont just before the stock took off on a new Bull Market rocket ride). So this article does not surprise me in the least. I can even explain much more of the same concerning the other companies that they mentioned in the article as well. I even have shares in Glamis Gold with a PE of over 130!!!! � and I am keeping them too (yes, there's much more to that story too � but I am not here to push gold stocks). But I believe that the article was a poorly disguised effort to taint precious metals as an investment and not just an effort to drive investors away from the shares of mining companies. Gold and Silver are in a primary "secular" long term Bull Market and prices will be rising substantially for several years. Before making investments in paper, stocks, bonds, warrants, etc. � first of all build a firm foundation of safety by accumulating hard assets gold and silver (platinum would also be good). Then get squared away by clearing out debt, having emergency cash, and a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Then invest or speculate from a comfortable position.

My "Sell Recommendation" today � Prudential Financial and all investments tied to them. If simpletons John Tumazos and Jared Muroff the best analysts that the company has to offer to cover this sector and are that sloppy with their analyses on these companies then rest assured that the company probably is not much better in other sectors or very good at providing good financial advice and services. In fact run � run like the blazes should they contact you.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 22:58:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109702)

Ford set to cut more than 12,000 jobs

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059480243280&p=1012571727088
Snippit:

Ford Motor Company is set to cut more than 12,000 jobs worldwide, mostly in the US, after persuading labour unions to agree to the closure or sale of four assembly and component plants. The moves come as the Detroit "big three" carmakers are receiving ratification from labour unions of new three-year labour contacts, which include plant closures and jobs losses. Chrysler, the US unit of Germany's DaimlerChrysler, is also preparing cuts in salaried staff, the latest round of job losses at the troubled subsidiary where 30,000 workers have left in the past two years under an $8.1bn restructuring plan.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows by leaps and bounds. Tomorrow we get first time claims data, the upward revision of last week's data, and the upwardly revised job losses for last month. Job losses are climbing and the unemployment figure remains at 9.2% or 12.3% in counting those who went from full time to part time employment (could be worse in the upcoming report). Looks very ugly but the constant reminder that this is a "lagging indicator" is sure to be spot lighted (lagging in the fourth consecutive year that is). Oh yeah, and that lovely Wall Street euphemism � "Jobless Recovery". Sorry that I haven't been keeping up with the "Bone Pile" reports but there are just too damn many of them to keep posting.

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 23:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109703)

Verizon offers buyouts to 74,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA718DBBC%2DFE65%2D4E65%2DB22C%2D259F26674BA8%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Verizon Communications has offered 74,000 managers a voluntary buyout package as the phone giant aims to further reduce costs.

Black Blade: Yep, more "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". And these are just the managers. Wait til they fire the other nonessential "bones". They are probably practicing for new careers now: "want fries with that sir?"

Gandalf the White

(10/01/2003; 23:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109704)

ONE THIN DIME !! <;-)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=sYesterday's Chart of the US$ had a "low" ten cents above the MAGIC 91.9 mark !! Will it BREAK the mark and set a new low today ?
When it does and I think that it will either today (Thursday) or Friday -- the GOLD ROCKET will start to BLAST OFF !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/01/2003; 23:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109705)

OOPS --- Sorry !

That MAGIC number is 91.99 !!!
<;-)

Black Blade

(10/01/2003; 23:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109706)

Where Have All The Jobs Gone?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/finger/100103.html
Snippit:

More than 2 million jobs have been lost in the United States since 2001. In fact, more jobs have been lost since the recession (1.1 million) than during it. Despite more upbeat numbers in recent months regarding corporate profits and stock prices, the job market has barely budged. Weekly unemployment claims have remained around the 400,000 level for over half a year. The official unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% to 6.1% in August. There's a dirty little secret in government jobs reporting, and you ought to know about it: unemployment benefits run out after six months. If the unemployed person hasn't found a job after that time, he's no longer counted among the unemployed. That way, the government's figures look better. By one estimate, one million people are categorized this way.

We are in what is considered by many to be a "Jobless recovery." The year 1992 started out that same way: although the Gulf War recession officially ended in 1991, the nation experienced very little job growth in 1992, and this was in large part responsible for the election of Bill Clinton as President. Shortly after Clinton took over, the nation started a recovery in the job sector. So why haven't we seen a recovery this time? One big reason is global capitalism. Huge American corporations are hiring overseas labor at a fraction of the cost of American labor. Look at these figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Black Blade: Jobs are going offshore. Especially high paying tech jobs as well as manufacturing jobs. If you have a computer science degree or some other tech oriented degree � go back to college and get into something useful and can't move offshore � like health services for example. Technology jobs in the US are dead or at least on "life support" and there's no chance the patient will live. A recent report shows recruitment in the armed services is surging. Maybe there will be work for ex-military personnel in the "Mercenary Market" (high risk occupation of course). Even with higher precious metals and petroleum prices, work is hard to come by in the US (the reasons are more political than economic though). This can be attributed largely to the Clinton-Rubin "strong dollar policy" that Dubya and Snow say that they still support. If that's true, then why do they want Americans to become unemployed? Interesting question but that's what is happening and yet it appears they want high unemployment. Before the presidential election I did state that George W. Bush would go down in history as the next Herbert Hoover. He's trying his damned best to achieve that goal. Another nail in the coffin is higher energy costs. "Cheap Energy" is gone � finished � though we have more than enough coal and NatGas we won't for some reason exploit this resource. This next winter could easily drive home that issue as well and another result will be more industries moving offshore and workers fired. It may be time to rethink your careers and possibly a return to school for an essential job or maybe learn Cantonese/Mandarin if manufacturing products is your career choice. In the meantime get prepared and trade dollars for gold and silver.

Aristotle

(10/02/2003; 00:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109707)

Robert, thanks for trying again

... but alas, I'm too danged stupid! I STILL can't connect your dots.

I'm particularly struggling with this part of your two attempts to show me the light:

Your 1st post:
"[Maastricht] does not provide for any way out of the currency union. [...] freeing gold from taxation was an insurance policy - a hidden way out of the currency union - for the worst case scenario that the Euro would collapse shortly after its introduction."

Ari: I can't see how this serves as a vital framework insurance policy.

Your 2nd attempt at this:
"[...] the involved national governments needed some kind of insurance that, if the historically unprecedented experiment of a common currency for a number of politically independent countries would fail, there would be some kind of exit door left. I believe that exit door was created by declaring that gold would be free of EU taxation and that the newly formed ECB would refrain from any attempt to manipulate the gold market [...]"

Ari: Danged it all... I'm still in the same boat as before. Adrift without the foggiest idea of North from South. I'm interpreting your use of "insurance" as "safety net" rather than "guarantee of performance." How does freeGold function as a strong safety net during a breakdown of the ECB structure if its existence or establishment ***in the first place*** was dependent/contingent upon the granting benevolence of the ECB (rather than being ushered in by the original independent will of the nation states)??!

You continue:
"a temporarily free gold was the necessary price to pay in order to convince countries with a relatively strong currency (like Germany) to switch to a potentially weaker currency (the Euro)."

Ari: "...TEMPORARILY free Gold was the necessary price"????? Was? WAS??? My dear Robert, we don't even have freeGold yet, and when we do get there, it shall ENDURE (no so fleeting as "temporarily") as a self-evident proper TRUTH of life like liberty and ownership of personal property. Apparently, you think "freeGold" is but a term that applies to a Gold market that is simply free of sales/VAT taxes? ooooph! That hurts. The following passage is another one of your passages that has brought me to that conclusion:

"As this trend continues and national sovereignity (including taxing power) is gradually shifted from individual countries to the EU burocracy in Bruxelles, the need for free gold will dissipate. This is the reason why I believe that sales taxes on gold will be reintroduced in Europe..."

If I've got this interpretatin of your thoughts wrong, please let me know.

When *I* apply the term (I can't speak for Belgian,) it has more to do with a market in Gold as an asset that exists in a wholly UNENCUMBERED state -- that is, no forms of promised Gold and paper Gold (IOU promises of delivery or price performance) artificially impacting supply and demand and price discovery in the marketplace were Gold's benefits are bought and sold among the many people of the world.

Getting back to that final point of welcoming government control essentially for a long time to come for the purposes of having a hefty supply at retirement, this is my final word on the matter. It is one thing to recognize the banking sector's price manipulation and to take advantage of it -- with the understanding that it can't last forever. Do not, however, celebrate the iron grip and wish it long life because you might get your wish in spades -- it might outlast you and perform so effectively that it reduces your tonnes and tonnes to a value of mere pennies during your time of need. Don't scoff at this; they've done it to paper currency, they can do it to paper Gold just as easily! That is, unless the paper proxy is severed, severed and abandoned through the market condition I refer to loosely as the freeGold market.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Caradoc

(10/02/2003; 00:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109708)

Sir Slingshot's 7/8 of an ounce

Slingshot: No rocks to throw and wouldn't throw 'em if I had 'em. Your storytelling and other posts add too much to this forum. The issues/queries you raise don't lend themselves to answers other than "well, that depends...."

First off, you're right that government-held gold generally is less available than the rest of the 6 billion ounces, but greed/opportunism apparently prompts sales during price increases (Canada, recently) and fear/stupidity apparently prompts sales after the price drops (UK a couple of years ago). In short, the immediate supply is elastic and for contradictory reasons.

Also true, if the world's population were to double (plus a tad to offset new gold production in the meanwhile) your fair share would amount to more like 7/16 of an oounce rather than 7/8. But double the population doesn't simply translate to twice the price. On one hand, some demand is also elastic. As gold approaches $800 per ounce, some jewelry demand may taper off by switching to silver or platinum. On the other hand, for reasons much discussed at this table, a rise to $800 will likely lead to much higher prices.

Just to make it worse, there's no answer written in the stars as to what is the proper ratio between gold and anything else. If this is the case for real assets like ounces of silver, 10-foot lengths of copper pipe, or suits of men's clothing, it's even moreso for something as transitory as any given date's definition of a dollar.

What this leads me to is that there's little point in tracking how many dollars your stash is worth. Instead, what's important is how many ounces your cash was worth over the last year and what percentage of that buying power got translated into real wealth.

Final note: it's up to each of us to decide what items in addition to gold qualify as real wealth. Going beyond the food and jugs of water that may be needed to get past short term problems over the next few years, my hunch is that a good well with a 24-volt solar-powered/wind-powered pump will be something that even the Joe Sixpacks of the world will recognize as a valuable asset within the next decade. I'll spare you the analysis of your "fair share" of the world's drinkable water in the year 2013.

Caradoc

DummyANI

(10/02/2003; 01:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109709)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Belgian

(10/02/2003; 02:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109710)

About the * euro *......

The history of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is a long and difficult one. So was the development of the dollar-system ! Both regimes ($-�) are of a dynamic nature and have (had-will have) altering relationships with GOLD.

Fiat Currencies (monetary systems) will ALWAYS refer/relate to Gold in one way or another. If,...IFFFFFF, one is considering the alternative euro-system as yet another GOLD-ADVERSARY,...joining the dollar's existing aversion for Gold,...WHY DOES ONE SHOULD GIVE ANY INTEREST TO THE METAL ??? If one thinks that the euro-system is as Gold-Unfriendly as the dollar-system and is "re-inforcing" the dollar's containment of Gold...what future is there for Gold ???

If Gold is not "wealth", why does one chose it for speculative reasons, whilst Platinum (or even nickel and other) make much bigger swings than the boring contained precious yellow !

The present hardiest contracdiction is to "see" that the euro-system has/is/will evolve as more and more GOLD FRIENDLY !!! At minimum, more Gold Friendly than the dollar-system ever was.

This euro-Monetary Union thing is on its rails, and the dollar-system likes it for as long as it remains a "nice" and "behaving" competitor ! GOLD'S PLACE WITHIN BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE SOONER OR LATER !

And if goldbugs wish to remain negative on both monetary systems ($-�) as to the advantage of Gold,... so be it.

The decades old Gold-Management only served one purpose : to avoid monetary chaos at Gold's wealth cost! Free Gold was always the right solution but wasn't serving (will never) the interests of the dollar-system, wich we had to accept for our best convenience.

A "Rush" to Physical Gold in this UNFREE (prisoned) goldmarket, makes the US$-RESERVE "worthless"... "useless", instantly ! The euro-system wants Gold to be able to remain free without endangering the monetary system with collapses.

Those who remain convinced that the evolving euro-system has NOTHING to do with Gold's future, must come up and explain HOW and WHY Gold's valuation criteria will change.
UNFREE Gold in a paper-gold-market cannot compete with helicopter confetti flashing from screen to screen
!!!

Destruction of the money(confetti)supply would cause more problems than honest money would solve. Unfree Gold, makes that we remain stuck with this system. We live in a world of "counterfeited" wealth without real private "property".

Once this Western part of the planet should see/realize that
our "prosperity" is declining,...we will start panicking and land or crash on the old ($)or new (�) monetary tarmac.

If,...IF the old prosperity-tricks remain workable,...we keep on flying with the old dollar system and UNFREE GOLD !
Faites vos jeux, Mesdammes, Messieurs.

DummyANI

(10/02/2003; 03:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109711)

Trade in gold, silver futures from Oct 3 in India

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/uncomp/articleshow?msid=212768snip:
NEW DELHI: Futures trading in gold and silver is set to be relaunched from October 3, after a span of more than four decades. The National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE), Ahmedabad, is all set to start futures trading in gold and silver from that date on.

D-ANI---comment: Tomorrow will be a verry big date for a gold.

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/02/2003; 03:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109712)

oil

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=449053problems closer than we think?

n

silvercollector

(10/02/2003; 04:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 109713)

How did I know that you would be the man to respond to my "overvalued" question?

After reading the article yesterday (very alarming!) and again from your post I see the bearish twist. On the other side of the coin I watched John Embry the other night. He did explain gold's fundamentals (demise of the dollar) and I near cheered his every word. Something of note though was his apprehension to some gold stocks. In his view he believes some have got ahead of themselves and he has leaned towards the metal lately. Followed yesterday by 'bear & bear' and I'm sure you can see that a red light has been flashing in my little world.

I'm a holder of Goldcorp as well; probably for the same reasons that you do. The biggest is their impressive holdings, their web site at this moment boasts 7 tonnes. Talk about non-hedging. Wow!

The other thing I watch is the HUI/POG ratio which was 0.3-0.4 for a long time and now is slightly over 0.5. Last week the ratio was almost 0.55 (210/392). That's getting a little ahead of itself IMHO. I wish the metal would catch up a bit!!

Anyway, thanks for your message BB, have a golden day.

sc

Belgian

(10/02/2003; 04:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109714)

miscellany....

- Goodby Wim, hello Jean Claude (ECB-Portugal). Dollar (A.A. block) speculates, again, that Trichet will be lured into more dollar-system like monetary expansion (debauche) and super-easy credit ! Read sustained lower euro IRs + increased confetti-inflaladada and rising deficits. Forget it !

- New report (David Kay) suggests that Saddam could only have "pretended" of having WMD ! Jesus...

- N. Korea, happily announces, it has nuclear deterrent !
Jesus...

- Chris Patten speaks about a possible donnation (contribution) of 200 million $ (budgetaire restraints) for the reconstruction of Iraq, where BILLIONS are needed ! Jesus...

- The EU (euro) is NOW much less dependant (influenced by) the dollar's fates than in the previous decades (from 20% to 10%)

The purpose of posting these snippits is to accentuate the differences between the existing (outgoing) dollar-system and the growing (emerging) euro-system under their respective political umbrellas.

Black Blade

(10/02/2003; 04:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109715)

Fifteen Fundamental Reasons To Own Gold.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Oct-2003/reasons021003.htm
Snippit:

John Embrey, a partner of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management, and portfolio manager of the Sprott Gold & Precious Metals Fund which consistently ranks at or near the top of the world's best performing gold funds, has published his 15 Fundamental Reasons To Own Gold. They are well worth reading and are attached below with due acknowledgement to the Daily Reckoning..

Black Blade: Worth reading - pretty well covers it.

Dollar Bill

(10/02/2003; 04:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109716)

*>*.........+

ersaud , director of GAM-Persaud Global Investment Fund said:

"If Asia un-pegs its currencies and moves toward floating ones, U.S. bond yields will surge," Persaud said at a foreign exchange conference here in Singapore this week. "Rising bond yields would crucify the U.S. economy."

Marshall Auerback in "John Snow Lights the Fuse"

China has been extending credit to the US so that it could keep expanding its capital expenditure to overproduce goods that the world doesn't need (as well as providing jobs for its dispossessed migrant workers coming into the cities). And Japan's massive intervention against the yen was creating the stimulus required to start the process of positive recursive growth dynamics in that country. Now this entire process, as inherently unstable as it was, is in danger of being reversed. The US is already tapped out and the latest downdraft in the dollar and the markets might prove to be the final shock to an already sick system."

My Guess is that China and Japan will continue with what they are doing for years.
And that the US govt knows that otherwise George Bush would be saying and doing whatever would be fiscally needed to right the big ship.

Waverider

(10/02/2003; 08:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109718)

Saving Canada with Gold Grams

http://www.goldensextant.com/CanadaGoldGrams.html#anchor2This just in my mailbox by Reginald H. Howe.

R Powell

(10/02/2003; 08:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109719)

Silvercollector

Concerning the mining stock index and the POG you wrote.....

"The other thing I watch is the HUI/POG ratio which was 0.3-0.4 for a long time and now is slightly over 0.5. Last week the ratio was almost 0.55 (210/392). That's getting a little ahead of itself IMHO. I wish the metal would catch up a bit!!"

Stating that the mining company share prices have gotten ahead of themselves because the ratio is increasing assumes that any rise in POG should result in a corresponding 1:1 ratio rise in the index, no? I question whether this is accurate given the varying break-even costs of production for different companies.

Specifically, say the cost of production is X dollars per ounce and the going sale price is X+$10 per ounce and, at this ratio, the HUI index = Y. Now, if the POG increases to X+$20 per ounce, company profits have doubled, where should the HUI be? If the POG increases again to X+$40, then profits have doubled again! Where should the HUI be now?

Let's add to the equation that some companies still have sold forward some percantage of production so that not all gold production is incresing company profits. Remember that the stock prices more closely reflect company profitability than the POG. Given that the HUI contains fewer hedged companies than the XAU but, even the HUI companies are not totally hedge free.

I do not own any mining company stocks so I've not spent a great deal of time on this matter, but it may be that the XAU and HUI indexes do not work as well as exact ratio indicators. That is, they may show the general up trend without being able to indicate whether the share prices are overpriced in comparison to the POG or vice-versa. I still wonder if share prices are a leading or lagging indicator of the POG. If the former, and if the HUI were an exact 1:1 indicator of the POG, then overpriced shares would be a premonition on the POG above $400, yes? But the issue is very complicated. Maybe someone with the expertise has/could do a chart type study over a good length of time to investigate the relation between the HUI and the POG, especially to see if whatever relationship there was in the past is still valid with the POG at these (relatively) higher prices.

As for the other precious metal, silver prices have been so low, for so long, that the majority of silver production is now secondary extraction from ores mined primarily for copper, zinc, gold etc. Primary silver production is (has been) below the costs of production. What are primary silver mining company stocks worth? What will they be worth if silver doubles in price? Again, very complicated. Physical ownership is not.
Thoughts?
Rich

Jing Zu

(10/02/2003; 10:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109720)

Dollar Drop...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Well,
It looks as though the sellers of the Fed Notes are comming in... Correct me if I am wrong please. I understand that once the dollar index falls below 92, the bottom will fall.
Is this correct?

tyro

(10/02/2003; 10:40:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109721)

Caradoc msg#: 109708)

Caradoc, do you have a particular name brand of pump to recommend? I'm going to have a well drilled within the next year. tyro

Federal_Reserves

(10/02/2003; 11:09:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109722)

SM Crash possible at any time

Forget the noise about absolute and relative levels of puts and calls, the SM can crash at any time. Liquidity is the key, and cash levels at the mutual funds are at record lows. There is no cash backed buffer in the system. There is no protection for the 10trillion in stock values. No reserves. The money is not there, its in the air, a paper conception, fools gold. Perception rules the day, and fear and greed can rotate in great waves. When excessive greed turns to fear, and cash levels are low, a stock market crash can happen at anytime due to lack of liquidity, providing no exit to withdraw for participants.

Gandalf the White

(10/02/2003; 11:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109723)

THE US$

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Jing Zu (10/2/03; 10:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109720)
Dollar Drop...
==
YES, Sir Jing Zu, Mr. James Sinclair and I do so believe!
Looks as if THEY are saving it a little from last night, BUT ---
We shall soon see.
<;-)

a nation of one

(10/02/2003; 12:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109724)

two cents

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3For the reference to the DOW go to
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3

There are several strongly negative news items today, and
this has been increasing ever since it has become clear
that the combat is not over. I agree with Jim Sinclair and
with you, Gandalf, that if the dollar goes below the most
recent low, around 92, that will be significant, in the
way that you predict. Further, pog is trading in a small
triangle going back to September 20th, and it has to
emerge before monday. Makes the most sense to expect it
will spring upward, rather than downward, to some extent.
Moreover, the DOW has crossed back and forth over 9500 a
number of times, and it is presently showing considerable
weakness. All these things seem to add up to a situation
where the hammer is cocked, and the round is about to be
fired. We'll see. Like always, nobody is right all the
time, and that includes me.

a nation of one

(10/02/2003; 12:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109725)

correction, Re: my last post

For the dollar reference, go to
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12

For the gold reference, go to
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d3

Jing Zu

(10/02/2003; 12:28:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109726)

Gandalf the White (10/2/03; 11:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109723

Thank you for clarifying that for me.. I thought that was the case.

So, what is going to happen next? I suppose that we will just wait and see????

Obviously people should buy GOLD (physical) in my humble opinion.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/02/2003; 12:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109727)

Pricing AND Shipping: The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html

Operative

(10/02/2003; 12:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109728)

@ Waverider: Thank You For The Brain Food

Thanks for the link to the "Saving Canada..." article. Started to give it a quick read, stopped, put on a pot of fresh coffee and going to spend some time reviewing this writing giving it the attention it deserves. Better yet, will see if I can find that decanter, print out the article, and spend this sunny fall afternoon outdoors reading. Hmmmm, wonder where my wife has hidden that stash of chocolate?

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/02/2003; 14:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109729)

Page Update!

misetich

(10/02/2003; 14:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109730)

Fed Officials Express Worry on Lack of Jobs

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=3549495Snip:

Home > News > Reuters Edge > Article

[Ad]

Fed Officials Express Worry on Lack of Jobs
Thu October 2, 2003 03:41 PM ET
By Tim Ahmann
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - While the U.S. economic recovery is gaining speed, a lack of jobs means it could still falter, top Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday in remarks indicating a willingness to keep interest rates low.

"I have to admit that until we actually book a couple of quarters of solid output growth and see the beginning of an employment rebound, there will be some doubts in my mind whether we are, at last, out of the woods," Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow said in an otherwise upbeat speech in Evanston, Illinois.

In a separate appearance, Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero also welcomed signs of faster growth, but expressed worry the economy could be slow to create jobs.
................

For his part, Moskow ..............."Inflationary pressures are not a significant near-term worry, so it should be possible to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for a considerable period," he said.

Even with solid growth expected for the remainder of this year and 2004, significant economic slack could persist for some time and put further downward pressure on inflation, Moskow warned. But he added the risk of deflation, or an outright decline in prices, was remote.
**********************
Misetich

There you have it. The "desciples" spreading the gospel - accomodative fed (print ad infinitum- low IR) no "inflation" and no threat of deflation.

It sounds more like management by hope and prayer - however in this perfect utapian scenario "they" are admitting unemployment will remain high.

Obviously the lower US $, thus higher import prices will not cause "price inflation" neither will higher energy, higher housing costs, higher health costs, higher food costs etc

and the Feds must also be saying a few prayers, for foreigners to continue on financing bigger and bigger deficits.

To assist Fed "lurkers" in case they missed this great post at Gold Eagle titled Dragon at the Back Door by Jim Willie CB

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/willie100103.html

All On Boards The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/02/2003; 15:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109731)

Analyst: Sun Micro Facing 'Crisis'

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3549730Snip:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Network computer maker Sun Microsystems Inc. SUNW.O should slash as much as 19 percent of its work force and tighten its product focus or it could become a takeover target, an influential Wall Street analyst said on Thursday.

"Sun faces a crisis," Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Milunovich wrote in an unusual note to clients, which was in the form of an open letter to Chief Executive Scott McNealy and the company's board.
.................

Milunovich, who rates Sun stock as "neutral," outlined several areas that the company could address, including cutting up to 7,000 jobs
***************
Misetich

Yep! US economic recovery is on the way - NOT!
and in case this was missed

AT&T CEO Sees More Cost Cutting, Consolidation

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3470614

After some 6,400 job cuts, AT&T will end the year with about 64,000 employees, compared with 55,000 staff at MCI as that company emerges from bankruptcy.

The Feds have little ammunition left, since IR, tax cuts and now depreciating US $ haven't done the trick

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/02/2003; 17:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109733)

Equal Opportunity Inflation? The Job-Loss Recovery...

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

Without a self sustaining recovery in both cap spending and employment ahead, the broader equity markets just may be making one big mistake in currently pricing in both a significant economic rebound and a meaningful corporate profits acceleration, above and beyond cost cutting, as per the loud and clear message of current valuations. The fact that labor conditions continue to be weak is self obvious
..................
At least as of now, we believe it's fair to say that wage inflation is really nowhere to be found. The same wage inflation that is going to be a necessary ingredient in hopefully "inflating away" total systemic leverage.
................
But, as always, we are on the lookout for potential unintended consequences of monetary and fiscal policy at any point in time. Especially as these consequences might relate to the financial markets. Over the very short run, could it be that the incredible economic stimulus the Fed and Administration is unleashing (really on the planet) truly causes the cost of "things" to continue to rise, but may also have very little to no influence on wage inflation domestically?
..................
Where we find ourselves at the moment is that the annual rate of change in household personal consumption has been outstripping the annual rate of change in personal income growth. It's more easily seen below.
.....................
Consumption growth has been outdistancing income growth on a rate of change basis for two and one-half years now.
*****************
Misetich

The question the fine writer at contraryinvestor.com asks in the graph (see link - well worth the read) How long can this continue? (reference to consumption growth outdistancing income growth)

The Feds (and Wall Street) are desperately hanging on to previous "successful mantra" being - lets race ahead and things will follow by being over optimistic

The mantra was successful during the "irrational markets" period - yet it has proven to be DISASTROUS for investors, pension plan administrators, insurance managers portfolios etc as TRILLIONS of perceived wealth has evaporated, as on each turn the overoptimistic Fed and Wall Street have place wrong bets

...and once again ..we've reached ANOTHER turning point- as SM have raced ahead again "discounting" another economic recovery - YET - even with the overabundant Fed stimuli it has failed to ignite corporate earnings - who've improved due to cost cuts and currency flactuation

The IT "scam" of the '90's is over. Scam constituted of individuals and corporations turning over every couple of years their software/hardware requirements to accommodate technology improvements

The startk reality which culminated with YE 2000 conversions and updates - is there has been little IT technology improvements both in software/hardware since year 2000. With the advent of the Pentium Chip, bigger hardrives and the saturation point of Windows Operating System technology spending has basically flattened out

Manufacturing has been debased - and unemployment growing -

How long can this continue?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/02/2003; 17:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109734)

US official-view gov't backs GSE debt dangerous

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031001/financial_mortgages_guarantee_1.htmlSnip:

WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury official said on Wednesday it is important for a new regulator of Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) to clarify the government does not guarantee the debt of the mortgage finance companies.
ADVERTISEMENT

[Ad]

The Treasury Department confirmed Assistant Secretary Wayne Abernathy said after a congressional hearing that allowing the Treasury secretary to review the new agency's regulations would make clear to investors that the companies' debt doesn't have the government backing U.S. Treasuries do.

"He would be able to make sure that nowhere in the regulations is there any suggestion that there's a government guarantee," Abernathy said.

Treasury confirmed that Abernathy declined to comment on whether the new regulator would withdraw the companies' ability to draw up to $2.25 billion each from the Treasury.
*************
Misetich

"Periodic public" announcement by the Treasury Dept -WARNING- (...setting up the stage?) of GSE's catupult?

GSE's an accident ready to happen- its Murphy's Law

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/02/2003; 18:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109735)

"China's Exchange Rate Regime and its Effects on the U.S. Economy"

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js774.htmSnip:

John B. Taylor Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs Testimony
before the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology House Committee on Financial Services
October 1, 2003
......................
The price of Chinese goods in the United States would not change by as much as the change in the exchange rate, because only a portion of most exports from China are produced in China, and because the retail price in the United States includes marketing, transport, and other logistical costs. And with a higher yuan, substitutes for Chinese products would likely come from countries other than China.
..................
Conclusion

I am pleased to report that our efforts to engage in financial diplomacy are bearing fruit. Active engagement with China and other countries is paving the way toward freer markets. The Administration's effort to raise growth in the United States and abroad, and thereby create jobs at home is already showing signs of success.

****************
Misetich

Mr. Taylor was asked to pass the "pipe" to Mr. Snow at the end of his testimony - Mr. Snow took "inhaled" a puff or two through the dragon shaped instrument and turned to a few reporters informing them " ..there has been no change to the strong US $ policy" and he passed on the "pipe" to the next Treasury Official

We all await China next move - as they've been told to revalue your Yaun and sell less ...

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/02/2003; 18:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109736)

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some Empirical Results -Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

http://federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2003/20031002/default.htmSnip:

However, easier monetary policy not only raises stock prices; as we have seen, it also lowers risk premiums, presumably reflecting both a reduction in economic and financial volatility and an increase in the capacity of financial investors to bear risk.
****************
Misetich

Correction in post misetich (10/02/03; 18:13:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109735) - erroneously mentioned Mr. Snow to have passed on the "the dragon shaped instrument" to ANOTHER Treasury official -

It is now apparent the individual who accepted the "pipe" and inhaled a few puffs before he spoke was Governor Bernanke - heir apparent to Sir Greenspan

After his third puff, Mr. Bernanke was quoted to blurp out.....lower IR reduces RISKS premiums

Mr. Bernanke was reportedly seen passing on the "pipe to Mr. McTeer.... who after a few puffs declared

"...US economic recovery - simple as 1,2,3 - lets go and buy a SUV.."

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Dollar Bill

(10/02/2003; 19:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109737)

*>*.........+

Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki on Wednesday reiterated that Tokyo would take "decisive" steps against any drastic movements in the foreign exchange markets to stop a strong yen from hurting the economy.

Seems the have decided to continue the dollar support.
China also no doubt.
Lets see, what year is it that they would feel it was time to not? I say not at least for 5 years. Till the Forums 10th anniversary.
What shape will the average US joe be in at that point?
Quite different I will wager.

By the way, clearly looters and thieves are stealing priceless works of art from Tibet and China.
I just bought a 2,000$ Item from that area, it is an absolute masterpiece. Gold leafed of course, and the monks apparently were saving the gold that was falling off over the years, and tucking it in a tight but large pile behind one of the feet. The small store is jammed with stuff one of the family members sends from the Tibet border areas.
I will link a picture one of these days.
Gold bars, or gold leafed art, as Aristotle says, get thou some.

Cavan Man

(10/02/2003; 20:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109738)

Courtesy of Harry Schultz....

"I now feel it's best to have gold bars & gold coins as a core holding U don't trade"

What would HS know? What does RR know (9506 is Dow Theory top end!)? Ii'm probably better off taking the advice of those twenty and thirty something "dudes" from SalomanSmith Barney that were so very rude on the flight this evening. Hey, but, they are wired (and have the latest telecom gear)!

Waverider

(10/02/2003; 20:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109739)

Operative

De nada!! I haven't had a chance to read it yet...this weekend me thinks! Beware though for anyone printing the article (Saving Canada with Gold Grams) - it is 56 pages. Sounds as though you had a great day...BTW - I also HIDE chocolate - especially the Swiss variety! Cheers,
Waverider

Druid

(10/02/2003; 21:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109740)

Dragon at the Back Door

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/093003.htmlSnippit

My constant refrain has been and continues to be: the level of economic understanding, policy and counsel is so abysmal that a galloping recession (or worse) is the most probable scenario, accompanied by price inflation in certain sectors. This country does not admit its errors. It does not detect nor correct its errors. Instead, it compounds its errors by more serious errors. We have no understanding of money or inflation or currency. We regard money much the same as water in pipes to irrigate a field, rather than the output of a day's work. Hence, our fields are flooded and we urge more water to be delivered. The costs and consequences of many years of ineptitude, speculation, fraud, and political sellouts are soon to demand correction by the powerful free markets, which are more powerful than any set of governments. Reconciliation is overdue.

Druid: Great read. This one brought back memories of "no understanding of money or inflation or currency." so I recalled this one:

"Please Define 'Dollar'"

Snippit

Monetary Realists, knowing not so much what they've been taught, but what they've learned with their eyes open and ears tuned, see things clearly, without peering through a haze of misinformation masquerading as knowledge. Like the boy in The Emperor's New Clothes, they make observations which seem to cause frustration and annoyance to those public figures to which they are directed. A case in point is the word "dollar," the definition of which has been sought by Monetary Realists for decades.

Some years ago Paul Volcker, of the Federal Reserve, was lecturing in St. Louis. A Monetary Realist ( not your author ) was in attendance. At the conclusion of Mr. Volcker's remarks, questions were invited, and the Monetary Realist asked, "Mr. Volcker, in your remarks you used the word "dollar" twenty-six ( or whatever ) times. Can you tell me what a dollar is?" There was a remarkable silence. Volcker said nothing. The silence grew protracted; it was embarrassing. "Well, sir, can you tell me what the yen is, or the mark? You mentioned them as well." The silence continued. Eventually, the host made some excuse and hustled Mr. Volcker from the stage.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hein111302.html

Druid: Like my old Professor used to say "that which you are trying to determine is determined in and of itself." Enjoy the reads.

Aristotle

(10/02/2003; 22:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109741)

Druid,

Hein's telling of the story of Volcker being dumbstruck when asked to define the dollar... tsk tsk tsk... sounds like an urban legend to me.

There's nothing wrong/bad about accepting the dollar for precisely what it is/isn't. The trick is in knowing what you should do about it in the course of gettin' on with life, 'cause THAT's what it's really all about. Life.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Black Blade

(10/02/2003; 23:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109742)

AT&T LIKELY TO CUT 5,000 MORE

http://www.nypost.com/business/7027.htm
Snippit:

October 2, 2003 -- AT&T Corp., the biggest U.S. long-distance telephone carrier, will probably eliminate about 5,000 more jobs, or 7 percent of its work force, as prices and demand fall, said Chief Financial Officer Thomas Horton. AT&T, which eliminated a total of 10,000 positions in 2001 and 2002, is cutting 5,000 non-management jobs this year. "I would suspect that we'll continue down that path and produce that sort of reduction again for the foreseeable future," Horton said at a Goldman Sachs conference for investors in New York.

Black Blade: More nonessential bones added to the growing "Bone Pile". Tomorrow we get last month's unemployment numbers and the usual upward revision of the prior month's data. I am almost afraid to read through the entire BLS report tomorrow. The "Jobless Recovery" looks more "jobless" than ever before.

melda laure

(10/02/2003; 23:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109743)

Global Systemic Pollution

My Screwdriver, My kindom for a golden screwdriver!Ed McCarthy, from Doug Noland's site.

snippit: "As we view the global credit scene, we see total chaos, domestically and internationally. An exemplar recently was the ability of Venezuela to find buyers for a debt issuance. This, to us, falls into the category of "what were they thinking?" We noticed in the "Credit Bubble Bulletin" that the demoralized country had sold $700 million of 10's at 12.4%! Internal buyers are demanding well into the mid-20% range for short stuff in refi's. Who's the fool? Yeah, we know, they suffer exchange risk but the spread still tells a story of what the most knowledgeable think. This kind of lunacy occurs in the desperate race to "beat the index" that the geniuses who manage other peoples money (OPM) are engaging in. We diverge from our central theme. RISK ANALYSIS on credit has been superseded by desperation to achieve return.

Emerging market debt issuance is at a peak, junk debt issuance is at a peak, corporate issuance (these guys know a good deal when they see it) is exploding and governmental, particularly U.S. governmental and agency, issuance is parabolic. All this is being done at spreads that, to this observer, totally fail to represent any relevance to real credit risk...."

This is all old news, really; though the reputed size of the global reflation in credit markets and international bond markets is larger than I might have expected- it really is in the trillions. I also recall a Time article back in '98 showing greenspan with a fire hose spewing dollars.

Sombody here was fond of saying "all paper will burn". Well the whole global bond market is really on fire now- positively sizzling. Yesterday somebody was asking how much gold to buy and what to do when it comes time to sell it. The fact of the matter is it is what goes on in the rest of the economy that matters. As long as the increase in dollar credits is running at 30% of GDP per YEAR I dont see why you would EVER sell. We're in a world of finance driven industry where Ford loses money on each car they sell and try to cover their loss by selling you a low interest money loosing loan along with that new truck. The fact is that when this part of the game ends we'll have an america without enough shoe factories nor shirts, cars, or other widgets. Those 5$ shoes from china that sell for 10$ at walmart will be selling for 10 euros wholesale and 25 euros retail and $250 dollars in the US. And the only three people in your town who will be able to afford a pair will be the chief of police, the local egg farmer and possibly you.

In a rational world you would have balance or equilibrium in trade. On one side of the balance beam you'd stack all the goods the world consumes in a year, and on the other side all the gold that is available for commerce - however in this crazy mixed up paper chase we have one side of the balance beam filled with (increasingly flimsy) foreign made junk and increasingly inflated foreign currencies, bonds, derivatives and other phantasms of the darkness, all counterbalanced by dollars, domestic bonds, derivatives and more phantasms of the dark lord of Labor Statistics. And doubt you not that when this crucible is put to the fire, the dross will be burned out, and you will find the price of real goods be dear and the value of gold will be precious.

Belgian

(10/03/2003; 00:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109744)

Hoi Druid

The article "Dragon at the Back Door" (GoldenJackass) is an outstanding one imvho.
I combined Willie's in dept views with Duisenberg's talk, yesterday in Portugal.
As a result, I hear Another and Friend screaming louder and louder...CHANGES ARE COMINGGGGG...CHANGES ARE COMINGGGG !!!

I'm glad being alive and *living* through these changes, Ari ! FASCINATING, now that I do "understand" a tiny little bit of it. Thanks Druid.

DummyANI

(10/03/2003; 01:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 109745)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Aristotle

(10/03/2003; 02:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109746)

Hi Belgian

It was nice that Wim could note with satisfaction to the reporters at his final Governing Council meeting that he's stepping away with the euro vis a vis the dollar exactly where it was when took up the office. It's been a long road! Remember the long slide to 82 cents? So not only did he hit the ground running and help it survive the birthing pains and uncertainties, doing what many thought couldn't be done, he's still running in stride and has brought the euro unquestionably up to speed.

If I remember right, a couple days ago you commented that France's budget discipline wasn't going to get a free ride from a sympathetic Trichet. Wim, too, sure didn't sound like France would be let to skate away:

"Last week the French government introduced a new budget. Next Monday the Eurogroup will meet to have a first discussion on that topic and then the timing, the judgement and the ultimate judgement will take another couple of months so that, according to the normal procedures, by about Christmas we should know more and be determined to do what has to be done. In the meantime, today Mr Solbes got from the Governing Council of the ECB all the support he might need for his further endeavours, he being the guardian of the Stability and Growth Pact."

You know, the political process can be a neat thing to watch if you've got pros on stage who have respect for their office.

All the world's an audience of voters, and in the meanwhile the political dollar is an unmitigated mess!

The last word goes to Wim:

"...we can weather any storm."

Gold. Get you some and you'll weather ANYthing short of Doomsday itself. --- Ari

Carl H

(10/03/2003; 02:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109747)

Fed approves Citigroup commodity trading

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031002/financial_citigroup_commodities_1.html--- Snip ---

WASHINGTON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Thursday allowed Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - News) to trade commodities, enabling it to retain control of commodity trader Phibro Inc.

--- End Snip ---

I'm sure that they will be as responsible as JPM in the gold and engery markets. Gag.

Got Gold?

Belgian

(10/03/2003; 02:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109748)

Hugh Hendry at CNBC-Europ

The Irish wolf, Hugh, was as sharp as ever in his answers and reflexions. But with more passionate conviction as ever before. A fascinating "contrarian" with a prima track record. Hugh understands Gold and is allowed to express himself !

Belgian

(10/03/2003; 03:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109749)

Ari.....

What I really wanted to emphasize, discretely though, (ad nauseum) are those huge, enormous fundamental differences between ECB (euro) and FED (dollar), permanently evidenced AND repudiated by the envious. This wouldn't be relevant here, if it should have nothing to do with Gold. But imvho, it does !
Wim : The POO AND the EURO/$ exchange rate AND euro IRs are OK for Euroland !!!
The ballast of the *burdens* MUST be spread over the entire planet !!!
Q3-'04 : Euro IRs might most probably go UP !!! No negative IRs in EMU.
ECB IS the most transparent CB on the planet !!!
Reunion in Portugal emphasizes the euro-system being "decentralized" !!!
US *must* get its public finances in order (twin deficits-5%)!!!
Exchange rates "must" reflect economic fundamentals !!!
EMU's obsession with *price-stability* works as a red carpet on many furious bulls...I do like this due to my very bad character.

misetich

(10/03/2003; 03:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109750)

Enron - Kenneth L. Lay, - Is he next?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36813-2003Oct2.htmlSnip:

Kenneth L. Lay, Enron's former chief executive, was told by a judge to show why he should not have to turn over requested documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Lay has refused to provide the documents, citing his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, the SEC said in an application filed with U.S. District Court Judge Royce C. Lamberth in Washington. The documents appear to be corporate records, the SEC said.

*****************
Misetich

Will justice prevail? Ken Lay close ties to the Whitehouse - and with presidential elections coming up - ought to be fun

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Dollar Bill

(10/03/2003; 05:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109751)

*>*.........+

Richenbacher does the math on the real unemployment numbers. Revealing some govt tricks.

"There is still more spinning involved. The government adds every month some 30,000-50,000 imaginary workers to the job total. It is based on the assumption that in an economic recovery a lot of people start their own business. In normal recoveries, they have done so, indeed.

All it needs to activate this statistical job creation is a unilateral decision by the government that the economy is in recovery. Once a year, the statisticians reconcile their assumption with reality by a revision. When they did this in May of this year, 400,000 new jobs that had been reported earlier simply vanished. Such revisions, of course, take place outside the monthly reported job losses. Together, we presume, these statistical casuistries have reduced the reported job losses in the past two years by well over 100,000 per month."

Dollar Bill

(10/03/2003; 05:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109752)

*>*.........+

When the deserts run dry of oil, North and South America will be overun with immigrants from the likes of Saudi Arabia. They have nothing else of economic value and won't want to go back to [employment of diminutive stature] and wandering the desert looking for water.

Gold Standard

(10/03/2003; 05:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109753)

Property price bubble

More and more has been posted on various sites regarding the property "bubble". I have purposely placed the word "bubble" in inverted commas, because my belief is that it may yet not be a bubble as we have all seen and experienced over the preceding three or so years.

My one nagging concern in that the TRUE property bubble (note: no inverted commas)will only strike when the equities market has run its course.

Let me explain.....

I am not a trained economist, I am merely an observer of the various "ups and downs" of the markets during my limited experience of forty-something years.

My observations (and purely from an Australian context, which appears to echo the world context somewhat) tell me this:-

In 1973/74, when "inflation" raised its head in Australia (and by "inflation" I mean price inflation caused by increased monetary supply) property prices increased dramatically. In the period from 1974 to 1978, my recollection as a young teen was that a vacant block of land with views in a coast location went from less than $2,000 to $8,000. Putting this into historical perspective, let's say one-half of an average family car to 100% of an average family car.

1978/79/80 saw a recession, where University graduates in engineering, teaching and other professions were unlikely to gain employment in their chosen professions upon completion of their degrees. Gold was watched with awe, and I can remember the savage dishoarding of 1966 and 1967 90% silver 50 cent coins when their melt value exceeded their face value. I haven't seen a "round" 50 cent piece for 20-odd years.

Property prices during this recession (and I don't think that they used the "recession" word then) remained stagnant. Property prices did NOT decrease.

From about 1982, the economic activity improved, through to 1987. There were shortages of engineers and teachers, as a result of the employment prospects of years earlier. Property prices during this period increased in a steady, semi-ballistic fashion. My recollection is that a very modest house in a suburb that you would not particularly like to live in was worth $20,000 in 1982, and $50,000 in 1987.

Putting this into perspective, $20,000 in 1982 was 2x the value of an average family car, and $50,000 in 1987 was 3x the value of an average family car.

1987 was, of course, my first experience with a stock market bubble. My Yuppie friends were exhorting me to join the equities mania at that time, which of course ended in tears on Black Tuesday, in October, 1987. I can still recall the radio and TV advertisements leading up to the crash, for "leveraged investments" and the such-like. Day traders ruled the Earth!

Just like the March 2000 blow-off, Australia was less affected by Black Tuesday than the US equities market. However, this led to an immediate re-allocation of investment monies into "bricks-and-mortar", where the $50,000 house suddenly turned into a $100,000 house from 1987 through to 1989.

1989 through 1993 interest rates increased dramatically, which slowed the rate of increase in house prices. 1993 was the "top" of the market, and it was only then that we saw "deflation" of property prices, no doubt due to the interest rate/foreclosure/mortgagee auction effect.

Real life prices of that very ordinary $100,000 house from 1989 to 1993 increased to about $150,000, and then stagnated or fell by about 10%.

Putting this into perspective, it went from 4x an average family car to 5x an average family car over the period.

The only notable cataclysmic reductions in value were "off-the-plan" purchases of holiday units, where agreed prices were not being realised once the home units were built, and a number of people had their fingers burnt as a result.

However, this is the only example in Australia where prices have DECREASED. I can recall that in the USA and UK in 1989/93 that home values fell below mortgage values in some instances, but thankfully, we were reasonably insulated here. And yes, there is a lot of 100% funding.

From 1993 to 1999, house prices in my city (Brisbane Queensland) remained stagnant, but right now that $150,000/$135,000 very ordinary house from 1993 is worth $240,000 at the very least. For perspective, that's 6x an average family car.

What I am trying to say, in my usual inarticulate fashion, is that property, or bricks-and-mortar investment, always gets a spur from a general equities market crash. "Money" is always sloshing around from one "hot" investment to another, and when the equities market tanks, property values WILL increase.

To my mind, and thinking globally now, those presently calling a propety "bubble" may have a surprise in store for them..... My belief is that WHEN the equities market crashes, there is so much liquid funds that is available, that they will fly towards "hard" assets, being bricks-and-mortar, and of course, gold and silver bullion and mining equities.

Initially, AFTER the forthcoming equities crash, I think that we will see the ultimate blow-off of the property "bubble" (that IMO has by no means been reached as yet), and only then the final bubble, that of gold and silver, will rise from the ashes.

Maybe, at least in the USA, crazy lending practices of the last couple of years will lead to mass foreclosures, and as a result, lower property prices at forced auctions.

However, as an Australian observer, this in not a scenariao that I have seen occur in my cognisant life-time. Sure, the interest rate problems in 1989/93 caused many foreclosures, but I do not believe that this significantly affected property values here, apart from leading to a lengthy stagnation.

This is only my opinion, and I would be happy to have the intellectual might of the doyens of this table descend upon me......

Cheers & BOL.

Cavan Man

(10/03/2003; 06:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109754)

Dollar Bill

RE: Saudi ArabiaNational Geographic 2003 issue

Cavan Man

(10/03/2003; 06:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109755)

Dollar Bill

Sorry. October 2003 issue.

Druid

(10/03/2003; 07:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109756)

Aristotle (10/02/03; 22:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109741)

"Hein's telling of the story of Volcker being dumbstruck when asked to define the dollar... tsk tsk tsk... sounds like an urban legend to me.

There's nothing wrong/bad about accepting the dollar for precisely what it is/isn't. The trick is in knowing what you should do about it in the course of gettin' on with life, 'cause THAT's what it's really all about. Life."

Druid: Sir Aristotle(yes, there are qutie a few posters here at this wonderful forum that I would gladly serve the goblets of wine too), I'm not so sure that this can easily be construed as "urban legend." If I'm not mistaken, in Ferdinand Lips book "Gold Wars", I believe there is a passage in there wherein Mr. Volcker requested info. from John Exeter on how to acquire physical gold. I could be wrong, and if I am, my apologies to the table. You are so right about UNDERSTANDING the "trick." Have a great day good sir, I'm off to the shop.

Clink!

(10/03/2003; 07:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109757)

@ Gold Standard

My experience in the UK is rather different.

I bought my first house ( a high-end starter in a reasonably prosperous town ) in 1982 for GBP 22k5. Throughout the '80s its value rose to peak in 1988 (as I recall) of around GBP 72k. When I finally sold it a couple of years later, I only got GBP 40k. (The buyer was a wise contrarian who was able to pay cash !) The asking price for something similar now is about GBP 125-130k. So there have been major ups and downs over the years.

I'm not sure how meaningful the family car is as an absolute measure of value or cost (compare today's car and a 1980 model - the degree of sophistication ain't the same!) although I prefer it to the virtual can of tuna. I would prefer to use salaries as a gauge, as there is usually a fairly easy formula to calculate what you can borrow. The bottom of the market is fairly well defined by this.

In 1982, I obtained a 90% mortgage based on 2.5 times my annual salary. These days it is nearer 5 times and 100%. (Note: This is my recollection from a Sunday Times article this past summer, so if anyone here who lives in the UK can confirm or explode that figure, go ahead) The killer is that UK mortgages are effectively 1 month ARMs, and I was paying around 14.5% interest. Imagine what would happen if those rates reappeared now. The mortgage payments could double, to 40-50% of income. Ouch !

C!

cockerel1

(10/03/2003; 07:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109758)

Ontario Election!

After living through the lies and the deceipt of a "Liberal" government in Ottawa that constantly has it's hand in everyone's pocket, you would think that the so-called"Engine that drives Canada" would know better.

Well, guess what! Ontario voted in the Liberals, provincially!

Methinks that emasculation of the population is almost complete, and if the rest of the western world is as Ontario, gold will be manipulated for some time yet. But when it breaks out, it will be HUGE!

Oh well. Guess we here in Alberta will be experiencing a growth in population again as some really peed off Ontarians search for sanctuary in the west.

Clink!

(10/03/2003; 07:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109759)

POG

Wow ! Check out the volatility this morning !!
C!

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 07:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109760)

Goldstandard: Property vs Stocks vs gold

I agree with you that property prices could increase markedly from here, but only if supported by rapid inflation of the money supply. Money will be diverted to hard assets to some extent from falling stock prices, however we have to remember that most of the markets money is pension funds and retirements accounts and the like. By law this OPM- stupid money has to be invested x percent in bonds and the balance in good equities, a small percentage of which might be REITS which would be commercial and multi-residential. It is privately invested money that will be yanked out and put in real estate and or gold, vacation properties etc.
What argues against this is the fact that mortgage interest can hardly go any lower (except on a real-interest basis)
nor payment terms be made easier. Then there is population growth and jobs.......who is going to be able to afford to buy these homes?
IMO the money-pump priming of the past is ineffective today because it is being pumped into a leaky bag......all that leak going to China. They have to get fiat into the hands of people who are going to spend it on things produced wherever you live. Trickle down does not work; all the liquidity has to go to the lowest level first, so as to trickle up. That is how people who got wealthy honestly made it in the first place. Whatever part of the economy in the US that the rich and Republicans could get going is going or has gone; it now needs a more democratic approach.
(I am speaking from a "keep the dream going point of view" I know the inflation will be ruinous, but it is ruinous one way or the other.)
One thing for sure, prices are going to rise, because the US dollar is sinking. The US is between a rock and a hard place. If foreign goods cost more, then people have less money to spend and tax revenues go down....result depression. Goodbye real estate and banks. Hello Gold!
If the US expands money supply and transfer payments to put more cash in the hands of the poor, then we have accelerating inflation to the relief of banks, guv, local economies and to the horror of stock market and foreign governments holdings bags of ever-depreciating dollars that they can spend on what? US goods or gold. Result: house prices go up but they are still just houses and HELLO GOLD!

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 07:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109761)

Cockerell: New Governments

As an Ontarian small landlord I am not in favour of the rent-controlling liberals; however Ontarians got tired of divisive, Grumpy Old Men running the province. IMO liberals will tax and spend, give more money to the poor, raise taxes. Result: taxes will increase.

Clink!

(10/03/2003; 07:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109762)

@ Goldenboy

I am in the process of selling my rental property (closing is in a couple of weeks). From what I gather from your post, you would be suggesting that I put my profits into either gold or .... gold. Just as well we agree !!
C!

cockerel1

(10/03/2003; 08:13:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109763)

goldenboy - msg#: 109761

Does no-one stop to think!

Who are you punishing by voting out those "Grumpy Old Men"?

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 08:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109764)

Cockerell; Politics, the Populace, the Economy

The populace thinks they are punishing other grumpy old men. And no, noone ever stops to think. What they are thinking here is that kids should have text books and grumpy old men should not have to wait in a line-up at the hospital. Rent should be free,,and so on. Also, working together has more appeal than calling people pinheads.

Anyway, this is all fiddling while Rome burns. It really does not matter who is in power where on a macro scale because it is just a matter of timing. Your house, your possessions, perhaps your life will ultimately be in peril due to greed,deceit,and general decay of morals and ethics.
The vested interests are the twin whores: Government and Banks who must work together to preserve their power over us. It is government of the people, not for the people.
So, we will have inflation, then deflation to make $ appear good, then inflation or whatever the poweers that be think we need at that moment to keep the system going. However corrupt systems have a way of disintegrating which is why we need gold. Gold is only gold and a dolar is......well, apparently even Paul Volcker cannot tell you what that is.

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 08:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109765)

Clink: Put your rental property profits in gold!

If I were to sell right now,I would put at least half into physical gold and the balance into at least 15 acres and an easy to heat home in the country far away from the maddening crowd. Do you have rent controls where you are?

cockerel1

(10/03/2003; 08:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109766)

Sir goldenboy!

I have reposted Sir silvercollector's post #109006.

IMO, it explains everything that I was trying to say (It's about the U.S. but applies)

silvercollector (9/20/03; 05:11:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109006)
Since it's the weekend I hope I can drift slightly off topic........
Here's an email from a buddy yesterday.....

Accounts Receivable Tax

Building Permit Tax

Capital Gains Tax

CDL license Tax

Cigarette Tax

Corporate Income Tax

Court Fines (indirect taxes)

Dog License Tax

Federal Income Tax

Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)

Fishing License Tax

Food License Tax

Fuel permit tax
Gasoline Tax (42 cents per gallon)

Hunting License Tax Inheritance Tax

Interest expense (tax on the money)

Inventory tax

IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)

IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)

Liquor Tax

Local Income Tax

Luxury Taxes

Marriage License Tax

Medicare Tax Property Tax

Real Estate Tax

Septic Permit Tax

Service Charge Taxes

Social Security Tax

Road Usage Taxes (Truckers)

Sales Taxes

Recreational Vehicle Tax

Road Toll Booth Taxes

School Tax State Income Tax

State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)

Telephone federal excise tax

Telephone federal universal service fee tax

Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes

Telephone minimum usage surcharge tax

Telephone recurring and non-recurring charges tax

Telephone state and local tax

Telephone usage charge tax

Toll Bridge Taxes

Toll Tunnel Taxes

Traffic Fines (indirect taxation)

Trailer registration tax

Utility Taxes Vehicle License Registration Tax

Vehicle Sales Tax

Watercraft registration Tax

Well Permit Tax

Workers Compensation Tax

COMMENT: Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago and our nation was the
most prosperous in the world, had absolutely no national debt, had the
largest middle class in the world and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What the hell happened?

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 09:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109767)

Sir Cockerell: There is likely no inconsistency in our intellectual views

I was merely reporting how the populace feels..

Your friends memo is great........as to "what the hell happened over 100 years?" well, the federal reserve system and income taxes in short.
North America is doomed at the very least to the British experience following WW1&2 and at worst a cross between that and the German experience. More on this later.

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 09:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109768)

Famous Last Words: It Could Never Happen Here

and of course its corollary.....this time it is different.

What does the US share in its history post WW2 with Germany, Britain and their history prior to WW2?

Clink!

(10/03/2003; 09:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109769)

@ Goldenboy

No, I'm in Florida now, so it could never happen here ! Actually, I benefited from them when I rented in France when Mitterand was - rather heavy-handedly - trying to 'socialize' the country.
C!

Gandalf the White

(10/03/2003; 09:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109770)

YES !!! Sir Clink! --- the US$ is having a VOLATILITY fit also !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0GET OUR THE SEASICKNESS PILLS !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/03/2003; 09:49:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109771)

OOPS

that should have been "GET OUT" !!
darn fingers !
<;-(

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 09:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109772)

Clink: I envy you; it is unseasonably cold here in Canada.

What motivated you to sell your real estate and what are you doing with proceeds?

Ten Bears

(10/03/2003; 09:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109773)

"Iron law of wages"

http://www.um.dk/udenrigspolitik/copenhagenseminars/summary97/sum_4_2.aspAn addition to the discussion on the loss of American jobs and manufacturing base;

cockerel1

(10/03/2003; 10:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109774)

WOW!

London closed and gold took a BIG hit! Down to $372 and change.

What happened?

cockerel1

(10/03/2003; 10:23:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109775)

Employment!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031003/markets_bonds_j0bs_1.htmlCan anyone explain who is hiring and creating these jobs?

Are they government positions, military positions or are these numbers just "Rose coloured Glasses" numbers to artificially boost the markets?

Guess the manipulators (crooks) are earning their money today!

Jing Zu

(10/03/2003; 10:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109776)

What is going on????

Does anyone know what just happened to the POG? Did someone sell a lot? WOW!

(10/03/2003; 10:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109777)

Not easy

Well people, no one said it would be easy. Silver was an easy mark this morning and they finally tripped a little panic gold selling. As frustrating this is in the short term, it still may be the last fakeout before we break higher. Bets anyone?!?!?!! ;-)

Waverider

(10/03/2003; 10:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109778)

Cockerel1

I think this scenario has the signature of the cabal all over it. I'm sure the numbers were massaged and that they are no 'suprise' at all...the PM market was targeted once London closed, and hmmm....on a Friday! Remember that Uponroof once said that the "volatility" of POG will increase the higher it goes. I'm hanging tight on my board for the sudden downdraft into the trough! I look forward to Black Blade's comments in today's DMR. Cheers,
Waverider

Jing Zu

(10/03/2003; 10:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109779)

Well, Take that !

I suppose that some ONE or some ENTITY has just decided to sell at least 500 tones to bring the POG down that much?

Some one on this forum ususally has access to who was selling what. I think that I have seen that before?

Anyway, I am happy to know that I can always find some excellent ideas from this forum.

GET SOME WHILE THE PRICE IS LOW!

Gandalf the White

(10/03/2003; 10:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109780)

WOWSERS ---- WHAT HAPPENED ??? MANIPULATION ????

You think that the NY Cabal could possibly be even thinking of MANIPULATION ?
NAW !!
just because RIGHT after the Futures closed in London and the NY is the only market open at the end of the week -- THEY would not try to take advantage, WOULD THEY ?
IF, they were to try and MANIPULATE the gold market, THE REGULATORY people would immediatly slap their hands, YES ?
<;-(
PS: NOW a bunch of little RED "O"'s are going to arrive on the P&F chart -- WHICH is a really big BLASTOFF flame from the GOLDEN ROCKET !!
(once the ROCKET arrives on the scene)
HOLD ON to the PRECIOUS !

Jing Zu

(10/03/2003; 11:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109781)

Thank you! Gandalf the White!

Good! I am excited! Show me that chart with the little red rings... I would enjoy peeping at that for a while.

(10/03/2003; 11:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109782)

50 period EXP MA

I use charts as do many so make up your own mind on this one, but I like to buy stocks in up trends at their 50 period EXP MA, and lo and behold here we are.

You just need a big set of you know what's to buy on a day like today!?!?!?!

G$

goldenboy

(10/03/2003; 11:09:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109783)

Friday Noon Attack!

So, starting at noon it drops like a rock $12 after the dollar goes up a cent in the previous hour. (INO charts)
Guess their supporters are sending out margin letters as we speak. Guess they need gold and are shaking out the paper traders. Long live physical!

Survivor

(10/03/2003; 11:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109784)

Winds Of Change

To any of the manipulators, lemmings, or sheep who happen to be listening - I would like to offer my personal thanks for this buying opportunity.

To the esteemed knights of this round table, thanks for some particularly excellent discussions this week.

- Survivor

Clink!

(10/03/2003; 11:11:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109785)

@ Goldenboy

Don't envy me too much - I'm spending all next week in Milwaukee !

Why are we selling ? The market here is looking very toppy (lots of 'For Sale' signs up for extended periods), and, as you can tell from the post earlier, I was badly burnt in the UK (Once bitten, twice shy). As you can't really time real estate except in very broad terms, I just wanted to safe rather than sorry. As the property has gone up by 30% in two years, I wanted to take out some profits. There were other reasons, not the least being a/ the rental market is very soft (everyone in the large condo rental market has bought eg our outgoing tenant) and b/ the insurance premiums had gone up so much that we had negative cashflow.

What will we do with the fiat ? Pay off the short term debt and give CPM a call, of course !!
C!

Great Albino Bat

(10/03/2003; 11:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109786)

The N.Y. boyz did a fine job today!

Thank you so much, boyz!

My purchase order will be filled Wednesday next at the latest. Push gold down a bit more, won't you - please? Why not try for - $355? You can do it if you put your mind to it.

We know you are desperate, boyz. What a fine mess you've got yourselves in!

The inscrutable Orientals must be quite pleased with your gift.

You are only fooling yourselves, silly dogs!

The GAB

Mr Gresham

(10/03/2003; 12:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109787)

Incoming!

It's war, and we've all been drafted as frontline soldiers, whether we know it or not. Just that most people think of their foxholes as homes and offices. We Goldmeisters are back here at the Medevac unit, though, and we see the casualties coming in...

In another voice, "how dey do dat?"

Husky

(10/03/2003; 12:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109788)

Cabal is desperate

So desperate that they don't care any more who can see it. They just want out of their shorts - Yee Haw!!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/03/2003; 12:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109789)

The fruit of your labor: exchange today's value for TIMELESS value!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Centennial has three decades of experience in the field.

CoBra(too)

(10/03/2003; 12:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109790)

Yes, Sir Gandalf!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLUA[PA][DA][F!3!3.5!]⪯f=G- On a day like today it pays to keep the long term perspective in clear sight!

Just got back from the "Gnomes" of Zurich and they are only starting to refocus on gold as an investment category and may still miss the opportunity, which is still is in its infancy.

Who'm these guys are hoping to be kidding escapes me, though I feel some major shorts "HAD" to be rescued. Hung Fat and his friends may be happily licking their chops, to the chagrin of todays sellers...

Love the action, though - Best cb2

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 13:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109791)

What represents YOUR wealth?

When the futures contracts sell off as we see today, the gold can be confidently acquired at bargain derivative-based prices for as long as the metal can yet be loosened from bewildered hands and unallocated accounts. How long will that be? Wisdom will come to all sooner or later, or else they will be dispossessed and will no longer factor into the equation.

Remember this: in times of economic stress, it is only ownership of the METAL that carries the full complement of financial benefits that have been reliably associated with gold throughout history. In the final analysis paper is only paper and can be expected to undergo discounting or failure as the stress level rises.

Choose gold, and when you do, accept only the real thing. The arrangement of ink on paper, no matter how particular the letters and numbers, is not the same thing as gold. It's as simple as this: no one bids on rotten lettuce at the farmers market.

R.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/03/2003; 13:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109792)

Page Update!

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 13:56:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109793)

Ultimately a paper event

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4762523∾tion=articleSAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures fell as much as $17 an ounce to their lowest level in over a month, as sharp gains in the broader markets and fresh strength in the dollar took investors' attention away from the precious metals market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures fell by as much as $16.70 to trade at a low of $367 an ounce, their lowest level since Aug. 27. The futures market hasn't seen a daily price decline over $11 an ounce since July 22 of last year, according to John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

Despite the latest decline, Person said he still sees "gold as a strong candidate to reach over $400 by the year's end." Gold made a dramatic sell-off in just minutes Friday because very large traders liquidated their positions and triggered technical sell-stops in the market, he explained.

----(from url)----

Paper was sold off, and thus the pricing mechanism for the whole yellow realm was influenced lower. A pricing gift for those with genuine gold (metal) acquisition intentions.

R.

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 14:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109794)

Har har har! Synchronicity with today's pricing action!

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com:80/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?msid=215134HEADLINE: [INDIA] Gold, silver futures trade starts

NEW DELHI: After a 42-year gap, India on Friday launched futures trading in gold and silver to help maintain price stability in these precious metals. The futures will be traded online.

India is a major consumer, using 800 tonnes of gold and 3,500 tonnes of silver a year.

[The newly launched futures market] is expected to curb wild fluctuations in prices as a response to domestic or international trends and cushion the bullion market.

-----(see url)-----

If we've covered it here once, we've covered it a thousand times; any expansion you see of the paper gold market is all about price SUPPRESSION for the underlying metal.

Don't be fooled. Choose gold in metal form and let the paper gold rot like heaps of lettuce under the sun.

R.

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 14:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109795)

Paper use to spread in the Bombay Bullion Association?

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=22&story=24408October 4, 2003 -- The Bombay Bullion Association hopes to start gold futures trading by Diwali this year...

A bullion consultant pointed out that since major business in the trade takes place only on cash basis, "there's a question of faith, which could pose a major problem".

Some of the large bullion importers and exporters, however, feel that futures trading will enable them to focus their energies on production, since the price risk will be taken care of.

According to a bullion veteran, Ashish Ghiya, this will develop a gold yield curve in Indian rupees and even lead to the development of a long term gold swaps curve as and when the same is opened further.

-----(see url)-----

When the supply of artificial gold is boosted, the price of this rotting lettuce is sure to fall as more and more people finally come to understand that it isn't as good as gold.

Right now the vested bullion banking interests are afraid to let the metal have a market of its own!

R.

a nation of one

(10/03/2003; 14:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109796)

hmm...

If I remember correctly --and of course I do-- I said it made sense to think that pog would go up. Therefore I claim first prize for the most wrong prediction. But don't worry, I'll do worse next time. Dang. If it goes down another sixty points, I will have a margin call. After I began wrecklessly posting my turbid comments on this forum, I somehow acquired a talent for timing my worst predictions at just the wrong times. Nobody else has acquired exactly this same skill, to the extent I have, I notice. It seems there are so many different things the market can do, besides what I tell it, that I --yes, even I-- have now started being wrong once or twice in a century. What really worries me, however, is that I told someone in 1980 that gold would never be below fifty dollars again. Gee. What if I was wrong about that?

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 14:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109797)

Pseudo-gold market: the bigger it gets, the bigger the crash when it falls

http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=22&story=24421You need look no further than India today for your insights into the stark price action of the day. Adds supply to paper gold, and importantly diverts investor/hedger demand pressures away from the small physical market.

HEADLINE: Bullion FUTURES trade resumes after 41 years

New Delhi, October 4, 2003 -- Futures trading in gold and silver began in India -- the world's largest gold buyer -- after a gap of more than four decades today, giving bullion traders the option of hedging against price fluctuations.

Consumer Affairs Minister Sharad Yadav formally inaugurated gold futures trading by placing the first order on the terminal of Geojit Infofin, a leading member of the National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE)...

The NMCE is India's first de-mutualised electronic multi-commodity exchange. By adding gold and silver to the list of 47 agricultural and non-agricultural commodities traded by it, the NMCE has joined the ranks of the best international commodity exchanges, such as New York-based COMEX, Tokyo's TOCOM and Shanghai Gold Exchange.

India had a reasonably thriving bullion (gold and silver) futures market before it was banned in 1962 through the Gold Control Act. [Randy's note: Ahhhhh... but today we have the folly of forgetfulness.]

[Key point of all of this is coming up...]

According to NMCE managing-director Kailash Gupta, the Indian wholesale traders, fabricators and investors will now have an effective tool to hedge their price risk in the international market and, thus, play a dominant role in determining the international gold prices.

------(see url for article)------

At the article's conclusion,

-----Asked whether speculators could manipulate the prices to their advantage through futures trading, he said this was unlikely because trading in precious metals required big money. "This would be a big market players' casino," he quipped. -----

In other words, the small fry like you and I will have no influence in this arena, whereas those with big money ready at their elbow (i.e., bullion banks) may drive it where they like.

Bow out of the paper gold market entirely and make your impact felt on the physical market. Thus, you and your will cannot be controlled.

Amen.

R.

(10/03/2003; 15:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109798)

Randy: Big Day at the Castle, Miner calls with an observation

Had a call from Miner 49er today and he thought that India might have something to do with the drop today as well. In a fledlgling market like that they very well could have taken an order they couldn't lay off in India and decided to hit Comex when no one was looking. I'm wondering if that might not be the case. This looked awfully odd to me. Talked to several people in the industry and no one could identify the cause of such a big drop.

We had a very busy day today. Lots of physical buying all afternoon and it's still going on. We'll be open to take orders for about another hour or so.

Miner said he might post if he gets a chance -- on a tight schedule himself.

(10/03/2003; 15:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109799)

Good series of posts, Randy.....

If the intention is to shake the faith of gold investors and advocates, I have news for gold's opponents:

You can't shake the faith of gold owners (as grounded as it is), but you can sure provide a buying opportunity. As one investor said to me today, "I don't see how any of the reasons for owning gold have changed the result of today's price drop."

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 15:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109800)

MK, glad to hear you spoke with Miner

Throughout the day we've had a good email discussion going on this topic and sundry. Probably should have done it all on the forum, but was driven by some comments and observations that called for more candor than would be appropriate for public consumption. But my last comment to Miner on it went something like this:

The greater the numbers that get burned on paper which fails to perform as promised, the more likely it is that it will be struck down -- WITH democratic blessings -- thus making the mandate endure.

The burnt hand is the best teacher.

With luck, he'll put his principal energies into a forum response good for all instead of an email limited to my personal viewing. But, honestly, I'll take whatever I get. I swear, he's nearly as busy as I am! (I'll admit, I've dallied here at the forum long enough already today, but I thought this presentation of the day's news needed to be told from a suitable soapbox.)

R.

Belgian

(10/03/2003; 16:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109801)

Keep on smiling....

Because our Towncrier, Sir Randy, has it more than correct...Let the paper gold rot like heaps of lettuce under the (dollar) sun...
...Afraid to let the metal have a market of its own...

Let (London based) Andy Smith have the (his) India gold paper bazar...and try to attrackt more scrap for GFMS statistical, misleading, adjustments.

Buy and read Robert Bell's book on stockmarket fraud...and understand to what extend we are fooled in the market arena ! All gladiators must die !

Demand, wish and hope for more and much further reaching paper gold suppression so that you can accumulate the real physical wealth-fundamental with worthless, over-valued, printed matter !

Physical Gold Advocates do applaud every decline in Gold's price as to add to their WEALTH stash. Gold is and must be about WEALTH ! Any other attitude-approach towards Gold is a capitulation before the paper-powers.
Gold Wealth isn't a "glowing" (WGC) thing .

Smile and always wish for a (much) lower POG that (physically) suits you best. You are NOT alone with this. Become a Wealth Holder...an owner of this very limited wealth .
Protect yourself, at fulliest, before everyone sees how naked the ugly paper emperor really is.

Don't forget that goldpaper can move the POG too fast, too high as to deter/discourage the natural physical accumulators ! Goldpaper forces do NOT tolerate Physical disturbance, unbalancing their lockstep discipline..."their" market...their paper market !!!

POG's behavior since september 1999 (and earlier) must be interpreted as a battle between paper and physical Gold !
Those who "stay" on the physical side are consolidating their wealth...those who are on the paper side are and remain wealthless !!!
But, there is sooo much profound (historical) emotion, into this word/notion of "wealth" that it will always remain a very difficult subject !!! Even for the majority of (Western) goldbugs. Unfortunately, this wealth-notion is fully exploited by the rabiate gold-containers of the (their) UNFREE Goldmarket for innocent, ignorant, collectivists.

As the paper-books are marked up in this Q4 for the end of '03...wealth-accumulators will keep on smiling.

Boilermaker

(10/03/2003; 16:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109802)

Job Situation in NE Ohio

Not to dispute the numbers from BLS but here's what's in my local newspaper today.

Republic idles workers
Nearly 2,500 go home as company seeks new loan
By Gloria Irwin
Beacon Journal business writer

Mike Cardew, ABJ

The Republic Engineered Products plant in Canton is one of six locations where the majority of salaried and union employees were sent home early Thursday.
Cash-strapped Republic Engineered Products LLC abruptly sent home nearly all of its 2,500 workers Thursday afternoon.
The surprise move came a day after the company filed a report with the Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledging that:

� It is in default on a major bank loan.

� It can't make interest payments on its bonds.

� It will be in default on a $5 million loan from the Ohio Department of Development.

The company has been fighting for its life since Aug. 14 when an explosion and fire severely damaged its blast furnace in Lorain. It had just resumed steel production on Monday after idling many employees in Canton and Lorain for several days.

Posted on Fri, Oct. 03, 2003

Akron General lays off 60 workers
Hospital blames rising insurance, labor costs. Nurses, other patient-care staff safe
By Cheryl Powell
Beacon Journal medical writer

Akron General Medical Center laid off 60 workers throughout the hospital Thursday to help trim costs.
The work force reduction is needed to help deal with increasing costs in such areas as labor, malpractice insurance, supplies and pharmaceuticals, hospital spokesman Joe Jerek said.
Hospitals have been getting flat or reduced reimbursements from government and private insurers in recent years while their operational costs continue to climb, he said.

Comment:
It's not surprising around here to see the steel jobs go down the tubes but when the hospitals start the layoffs that's another matter. Maybe we can send our sick to China.

TGIF and good weekend to all!

Boilermaker

steady

(10/03/2003; 17:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109803)

(No Subject)

Its great to know the true size , shape, and weight of your wealth especially in light of gold the judge, arbitrator, and executioner of fiat 'script worthless(even in some cases negative as it represents debt)is methodicly and with a ever increasing earthly single minedness is digging out of deep storage ,its tools!

steady

(10/03/2003; 17:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109804)

"GOOD STUFF"

goldbugs unite sin a single mindlessness. see what people are realizing that hey yes i can conceptualize and understand the inverse relationship btetween gold and the dollar and i can conceputualize and even at time vizualize the makeup of the fimnancial markets . finnally leading to the cullmination realization that our fiat federal reserve notes a a figment of our creation or imagination. {what in the tarnation, how could this be to a once great nation)
thats why conscuiousness is increasing as individuals are being forced to think for themselvs, as what path is best for them.(we know the trail and try to guid many to it, as i think robert frost once siaid i travel the path less chosen )we ere know the answer both for individuals and for the entire planet.
the answer is ecoism similar to the ideaism of nationalism that united nations but very different. so different i had to make that term up to sdescribe what we are seeing after the fall of imperalism and the fall of capitalism as in capitolism you have to have capitol to have capitolism and with a federalreserve note baed upon faith and credit(debt there neve was such a thing as capitolisma fter 1971) what replaced it was derivitism the excesses are finally manifesting themselfvs 31 yearts latter as derivative upon derivative was derived untill the stock market was forced to take a dive.
but u see ecoism is similar but different from mercantilism as well. for it was mercantilism that caused the wealth of many countries in latin america and africa to be taken to foreign lands . see ecism is the desire of individuals, not govts or banks or financial instituiton but individuals one mind at a time, one realization that time is your capitola nd one that time is gone your capitol shound not be subject to a drecrease in value just cause some dude enters a few keystrokes on a computer to sell 4kabazillion units of account to decrease the unit u are storing your wealth in at the moment so u do not have the ability to not only create wealth but learn how to live with prosperity, that every individual shouls hav the opportunity to do if thru paractical use of there capitol(time ) they have earned it.
ecoism embraces individual lie this. ecoism want to succed on earth, and the best thing about ecoism since it is an isma nd an idea it can not be contained by fences (hello israel take ing hte place of east germay) or borders or for that matter planets!
since it is an ism and an idea it is subject to its antithesis and who know what it turns into or becomes. but it will morph and develope alife of its own in conjunction with ever increasing mintings of the dinar(second minting soon to be happening, third im sure in the planning stages,and eventually the restablishing of gold with its anchor silver but thats another story for another diacussion) but ecoism alive and well !
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

Federal_Reserves

(10/03/2003; 17:44:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109805)

Hidden bombshell in the labor report

Average weekly earnings fell. Fell by a penny. So what?

For the first time in 14 years, the monthly number FELL!

Are we facing the final result of the asset and credit bubble that burst in 2000?

Take a look at the latest weekly summaries of money supply from the Federal Reserve....

The absolute level of Money supply (M2) is now falling.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2

Is Deflation Here?

Are we on the cusp of collapse?

Are we facing the collapse of the financial twin towers?

How long can the twin towers of trade and government deficits be maintained on the shifting and unstable sand bars of private debt that is growing at 1trillion dollar annual rates? Is a forex missle aimed straight at our towers?

Know this: during 9/11 the towers collapsed and thousands killed were killed an injuried. On the bottom of the towers in the vast wreckage, laid 250million in gold bullion, stored in the COMEX warehouse, the towers and COMEX exchange collapsed but the gold was retrieved under the wreckage.

Is there a lesson here?

Sancho

(10/03/2003; 18:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109806)

A Nation of One

Re Msg l09796, an enjoyable post with respect to timing, but I cannot let you have all the notoriety by yourself. I have fine-tuned the Midas Touch In Reverse also. I sold 40 grand of SouthWestern Gold exactly one day before their Asian play and subsequent quadrupling.

Gandalf the White

(10/03/2003; 19:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109807)

THERE it is ! And as a bonus -- A RED "A" !!! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PYES SIR, Sir's CB2 and Jing Zu --- A RED "A" (standing for the Month of Oct.) and FIVE (5) (count them) FIVE RED "O"'s !!!!!
THAT looks like a WONDERFUL BLASTOFF Rocket exhaust display to me !! Now all we need is a THREE BLACK "X"'s ROCKET !
Get ready for the TRIP TO THE MOON, by gathering all the YELLOW PHYSICAL that you can at these GIVE AWAY PRICES !
The Hobbits went out this afternoon and came back with CLINK, CLINK, CLINK !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/03/2003; 19:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109808)

AND now a BET against the TA of the P&F chart !

IF you read and belive the "ALERT" High Pole Warning --
Premilimary Price Objective in this Reverse = $344.0 !
I will turn in my Crystal Ball to Sir Slingshot if this PO is fulfilled !! The CABAL has "boughtout" the Chartist that drew this chart !! OR, to put it in kinder words --
AFTER almost a full week of making errors on disappearing RED "O"'s, THIS PO is another BIG MISTAKE !!
NO WAY !! We will not see $344.0 !!!!
<;-)

21mabry

(10/03/2003; 19:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109809)

Tough Day

I did not look at the markets until about 2pm today.I was babysitting my niece she is 13 months.Changing diapers and feeding and caring for a baby is a hard job.My hats off to those of you who have raised families.All I can say was what a surprise I got when I turned on Bloomberg.Precious metals physical and paper took a beating today.I am not surprised there was a pullback just by the size of it.You have got to hand it to the anti metal forces they are going down swinging.I hope no one is selling into this weakness.I personaly am gonna try and scrap up some funds to buy some silver.Silvers drop surprised me the most I really thought 5 U.S.D an oz was the new floor.O well we will see what next week brings.One last thought Bloomberg is so much better than cnbc.Bloomberg covers commodities than have commodity traders on and discuss the PM market its just so superior to cnbc.Do you ever see how giddy cnbc gets when the markets go they are like kids in high school taking about how cute someone is.Have good weekend everyone 21

steady

(10/03/2003; 20:46:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109810)

ecoism

eco as in economics specific monetary policy on the individual basis .
sounds like echo as it will reverberate through the know financial world with ever increasing pitch,depth and duration untill one day ecoism provides the impitus (catalyst ) for the freeing of gold so it can become once again harmonious with all commerce, public and private on planet earth!

ecosism- to be further refined, define, maligned utilimatly to face death or acceptance thru the test of ideas into reality.
open your mind help set gold free should b the plea along with
honest money

gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

TownCrier

(10/03/2003; 21:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109811)

Belgian.

Thanks.

R.

THX-1138

(10/03/2003; 21:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109812)

Trip to local coin dealer

I went to my local coin dealer today to pick up 10 oz. of silver and a bunch of plastic 50-cent piece tubes.

Except for the specialty coins and bullion in the display case the store only had three 10 oz. bars for sale. No junk coins, no bullion rounds....nothing.

The coin guy said that there was almost no over-the-counter sales of silver coming into the store.

supplies getting tight. Get it while you can!!!

Dollar Bill

(10/03/2003; 21:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109813)

*>*.........+

President of the Dallas Fed Robert McTeer responding to a question after his speech Wednesday at the Kanaly Trust Company Distinguished Lecture reception:
"What is my opinion of the current account deficit? Just to define the terms a little bit, the trade deficit is the excess of our imports of goods over our exports of goods. The current account deficit adds services and some other things in the balance of payments. It's a better measure of our trading relationship with the rest of the world. In college in the 1960s when you studied things like that the answer was that a fairly large and sustained current account deficit -- if you have a floating exchange rate -- will cause the exchange rate to decline until it brings about equilibrium.

The U.S. is a little bit of an exception to that, in that its dollar is used all over the world as a currency by a lot of people and it's held by central banks all over the world as a reserve currency. To some extent, the world has long been willing to hold the excess dollars that we put out by buying more than we sell to the rest of the world. And we get sort of a free ride. Sort of like we're in a poker game and we never have to cash in our chips. In the late nineties, when we were doing so, we had such a dynamic economy, particularly compared to the Eurosclerosis in Europe, there was a lot of funds floating to the United States from Europe that sort of artificially held up our dollar and made the current account deficit larger. In the 1960s you learned that trade was independent and capital flows were the financing mechanism -- they were sort of passive.

But these days capital flows are kind of independent too, and one could almost argue, not that our capital inflow is financing our current account deficit, one could almost argue that our current account deficit is financing our capital inflows. So long as that is happening, and as long as we are regarded as the dynamic economy and the best place in the world to invest, our large current account deficit is not going to cause us any problem. The problem will come when people change their mind about all that and they've decided, maybe suddenly, that the world has too many excess dollars and they'd like to sell a lot of them all at once in the foreign exchange market. If they did that all at once, we would experience an exchange rate crisis. We'd do no telling what to react to it. I don't know exactly what would happen, but it wouldn't be good. But we've had the potential for that to happen for several years now and it hasn't. Most of the countries that own a lot of the dollar balances don't have any real incentive to trigger a crisis like that. They would perhaps be hurt as much as anybody else by such a crisis. What is it they say: "If you owe the bank a little money, you've got a problem. If you owe it a lot of money, the bank's got a problem." We might be in that situation."

"One of the great things about moving to Texas after the banking crisis was that Texans are willing to talk about their bank failures, their own failures, and there's no embarrassment about it whatsoever. It's a very entrepreneurial country and we're in the center of the entrepreneurial part of the country. And we'll survive whatever they throw at us. I don't know what the next external shock might be. It might just be that the current account deficit finally reaches a tipping point."

Druid

(10/03/2003; 22:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109814)

Belgian (10/03/03; 00:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 109744)

"The article "Dragon at the Back Door" (GoldenJackass) is an outstanding one imvho.
I combined Willie's in dept views with Duisenberg's talk, yesterday in Portugal.
As a result, I hear Another and Friend screaming louder and louder...CHANGES ARE COMINGGGGG...CHANGES ARE COMINGGGG !!!

I'm glad being alive and *living* through these changes, Ari ! FASCINATING, now that I do "understand" a tiny little bit of it. Thanks Druid."

Druid: Belgian, you're welcome, and anytime I can contribute to our cause I will. Man I've been on travel the last couple of days and we have a long way to go in this country before belief transitions to knowledge and then on to understanding. Bugs, get your hands on as much physical as you can and dig in because the transition from delusion to reality is going to be a difficult one.

Druid

(10/03/2003; 22:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109815)

Dollar Bill (10/3/03; 21:55:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109813)

"The U.S. is a little bit of an exception to that, in that its dollar is used all over the world as a currency by a lot of people and it's held by central banks all over the world as a reserve currency. To some extent, the world has long been willing to hold the excess dollars that we put out by buying more than we sell to the rest of the world. And we get sort of a free ride. Sort of like we're in a poker game and we never have to cash in our chips. In the late nineties, when we were doing so, we had such a dynamic economy, particularly compared to the Eurosclerosis in Europe, there was a lot of funds floating to the United States from Europe that sort of artificially held up our dollar and made the current account deficit larger. In the 1960s you learned that trade was independent and capital flows were the financing mechanism -- they were sort of passive."

Druid: Here's ANOTHER way of stating the obvious. This is kind of uncanny, I wonder if McTeer is taking notes from the USA Gold Gold Trail?

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 17:26
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

"We are all at a giant poker table and the CBs act as the dealer. One day soon the game will end and the players will try to cash in the chips. In that day the dealer will act in our own best interest. They will not pay out gold for the chips. The money system will start over, from scratch.

Also:
It is easy to know that gold could not have been traded for all oil sold. This was never the intent. They only wanted to pull a small amount out of circulation on a regular basis. Using a small amount of oil as a partial trading vehicle gold could be purchased in an all paper deal to hide it's price. As I said before, if they walked up to the plate and started buying outright it would run the price. It is working. They only need 200 million ozs. When the system breaks that gold would be worth all the oil in Arabia and then some."

The Asians are the problem, by buying up bullion worldwide and thru South Africa they created a default situation on all the paper for the oil / gold trade! Now the CBs are selling in the open to calm nerves but it's known that they will never sell enough. It was never their intent to provide the gold, only the backing until new mining technology could increase production. Over time the forward sales, such as ABX's should have worked. But LBMA went nuts with the game and the whole mess has now accelerated.

(10/03/2003; 22:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 109816)

Dynamic Yield Curve Utility

http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.htmlClick on the SP500 and have the yield curve charted for you.

Black Blade

(10/03/2003; 23:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109817)

Indian Paper Trades?

This could be interesting as I recall some banks a few years ago attempted to have people put their gold on deposit in the banks for rupees. The whole scheme collapsed due to lack of interest as the people preferred to keep their physical gold in their possession. I wonder if the new futures trading scheme will fair much better. Sure a few with enough resources may the speculative end of this market but over all I don't see it as being a huge success. Recently the "hallmarked" gold program appears to be a bust as well. The majority of physical demand in the country for gold and silver is among those who we would describe as "small fry". So I doubt that they will enter into this scheme either. In fact the drop in today's gold and silver price may even be viewed as a bargain as the Festival Season and Marriage Season is just getting underway. Today's drop in price may be seen as a "gift". The speculation is that one fund sold a large position that lowered the POG enough through several stop loss orders that cascaded into a near $14 drop by the end of the New York trading session. Who knows what will occur on Sunday night as the Asian markets get underway, but another point that can't be totally ignored is that the speculative equities bubble has suddenly reappeared once again as the Lemmings who got creamed in the last bubble bust are desperately attempting to make back their loses.

Meanwhile corporate insiders are bailing out, capex simply is not there, and massive layoffs have been announced. What impact the new BLS methodology had on today's employment data is unclear. Aside from "seasonality" and other "data massage" one point is clear -- manufacturing jobs are still in serious decline while all the gains have been in the service sector. Another important point that has been missed by the Wall Street morons and CNBC carnival barkers is that about 60% of those gains are "temporary" employment jobs. Corporations are not ready to commit to hiring full time workers quite yet. That is not a good sign. Another point is that a net 4,000 jobs per week are "outsourced" abroad to offshore laborers. One of the largest outsourcing of thee offshore jobs are to Asia (India, SE Asia, and China) are high tech jobs (software development, IT work, customer services, etc.). If you have a computer science degree, brokerage services or anything similar then you had better start looking through college catalogs for another degree that will actually be useful and not likely to be "outsourced" abroad. High paying Tech jobs in the US are going the way of the dinosaur. Perhaps look for work in government, teaching, or health care.

The US dollar has not weakened as much as the Yen and Euro lately and should be much weaker. Yet George W. Bush and John Snow are intent on talking up the "strong dollar policy" for some reason. The "strong dollar" is killing the US manufacturing sector (the bedrock of Republican Party support). Why Bush does not want to be reelected by alienating his support by getting them fired from their jobs is somewhat confusing. He should be talking down the dollar to counter the Japanese currency market intervention efforts. The Federal Reserve should be printing dollars like there's no tomorrow and build new printing facilities if necessary to sop up the additional $200 billion the Japanese have allocated for the purpose of propping up the dollar. The Treasury Department should be auctioning off more debt than foreign interests can possibly buy and in turn substantially devaluing the dollar. Maybe even substantially raising tariffs on foreign goods to put the current account balance back on a level playing field - tit for tat. In short forcing a rapid rise in inflation to get the point across that if foreign markets do not want a free market then we can play that game too. Instead Bush would rather have US workers unemployed and deep in debt. He obviously wants to be remembered in history as the next Herbert Hoover. I don't know - maybe I am missing something here and I am a bit tire - long day.

- Black Blade

(10/04/2003; 00:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109818)

Gold - Weekly Chart (Closing Prices)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]wallynay[pc65][i]⪯f=G.

Black Blade

(10/04/2003; 00:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109819)

Troubling signs of a jobless recovery are everywhere

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2134287
Snippit:

WE usually don't need government statistics to tell us when times are bad. We have a pretty good sense when family members and neighbors lose their jobs and can't find new ones. You know it's rough when you hear from a steady stream of friends who call to ask about job openings and even the manager of your local grocery store is bemoaning the fact that he can't land that law-enforcement job he just spent months training for because of municipal budget cuts. Even though the economy officially continues to grow based on gross domestic product data, there's no changing the fact that we're in the midst of a jobless recovery -- with the emphasis on the word jobless.

In the entire United States, the number of people without health insurance the entire year rose to 43.6 million people -- an increase of almost 6 percent. It happened as more Americans either lost their jobs, work in jobs that don't provide health insurance or are the victims of state budget cuts. But as health care costs have increased -- 12.3 percent this year and 17.8 percent last year -- employees end up shouldering more of the cost, according to the survey. "The share an employee is paying is greater now than it was in the past on an ever-increasing health care dollar," said Jim Watt, president of Employee Benefit Solutions, an employee benefit consulting firm in Houston. And he attributes the shift to the rough economy. "If the economy was better, we wouldn't have seen this," he said, because companies would not have wanted to upset their employees and make their health care benefits uncompetitive.

According to Hewitt, the human resource consulting firm that conducts an annual salary survey, last year's salary increases were the lowest it has seen in the 27 years it has been keeping track. And, if the Labor Department gets its way, you might be saying goodbye to that overtime you have been depending on. The Labor Department has proposed revamping the rules governing which employees are entitled to overtime, but because of a public outcry it has hit a huge snag in Congress. The Senate voted in September to block the new rules, and the House, which initially voted in July to back the administration's proposal, reversed itself Thursday and sided with the Senate. "To Americans, it's just one more stab in the back," she said.

Black Blade: Ah yes, the "Jobless Recovery". More jobless all the time and rising costs (never mind the bogus low inflation data from the scammers at the BLS � remember government bureaucrats are genetically bred or coerced to be liars and conmen � prostitution goes well beyond and are not confined to sexual activities).

Black Blade

(10/04/2003; 00:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109820)

US factory orders decline in August

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/afp/20031002/bs_afp/us_economy_orders&sid=96001027
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AFP) - New orders for goods from US factories fell 0.8 percent in August, the government said, snapping three months of improvement in the struggling manufacturing sector. The decline, which partially reversed a 2.0-percent jump in July, was a little steeper than Wall Street analysts' forecasts. Orders for durable goods -- big-ticket items such as cars and washing machines -- fell 1.1 percent while orders for non-durable goods dropped 0.5 percent, the Commerce Department said. Demand for big-ticket items was hurt by a 7.7-percent decline in new orders for motor vehicles. But the manufacturing sector was supported by a 37.0-percent jump in defense capital goods orders.

Black Blade: No recovery as I see it, especially when corporate profits come from cost-cutting � no spending on goods for factories and firing workers. Now with consumers spending less. Looks to get might ugly.

Black Blade

(10/04/2003; 00:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109821)

Spending our way to disaster

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/02/markets/consumerbubble/index.htm
The consumer debt bubble in the United States could make the stock bubble seem like nothing.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has become deeply addicted to spending, running up ever higher levels of debt in order to live in a fashion that is beyond his means. And the world has become equally addicted to the consumer continuing to burn through cash. It's a dangerous situation -- potentially a bubble that dwarfs even the U.S. asset bubble that burst in 2000 -- and it will be a challenge for policy-makers to keep it from ending badly. The perseverance of consumer spending over the past several years is credited with keeping the economy afloat, but it didn't come without consequence. In order to keep on living in the manner they became accustomed to during the boom years, Americans went deeply into hock. "If there's a bubble, it's in this four-letter word: Debt," said Merrill Lynch chief North American economist Dave Rosenberg. "The U.S. economy is just awash in it."

Black Blade: Check Mate! It's all debt � personal, consumer, corporate, trade, current account, and budget debt. The "strong dollar" is merely an illusion.

Gandalf the White

(10/04/2003; 00:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109822)

THANKS, Sir ge !!!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]waolynay[pc65][i]⪯f=Gge (10/4/03; 00:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109818)
Gold - Weekly Chart (Closing Prices)
===
I have taken the liberty to change the chart JUST A LITTLE BIT to see the range of each week -- BUT the result is still the SAME -- GOLD is still in an UP TREND !!
<;-)

Belgian

(10/04/2003; 07:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109823)

PAPER GOLD.....

The new attemps to "paperize" Indian Gold, by the Anglo American dollar block :
The Indian continent harbors an estimated amount of 10,000 tonnes of Gold, broadly distributed amongst powerless people. What a fantastic Gold-Pool to restart a goldprice controlling, gold-paper-machine (market). Those honest, powerless Asians *must* be brought in line with the desires of the paper gold powers. * Modern * gold-robbery, theft, looting ! This Indian huge gold-pool might (!!!) be a much more fertile ground for nenewed goldprice containment than the ETF upstarter (another gold-pool to be created as to become paperized)!!!

All this is naked evidence that the present and future increasing uptake/accumulation of Physical Gold is *** threathening *** the further "floating" of currencies, mastered by the powers that are (read Shostak-GE).

Yes, more paper gold suppression is needed before Gold's fundamentals risk to undermine the floating currency-system, irreversably !!! Your "property" must be shaken by the pricing masters.

Voila...

I very strongly suspect that the gold-suppression-trend of the past 3 decades has entered a new phase, with more volatility to come. Volatility as a result of the battle between the natural move of renewed gold-accumulation and re-inforcing paper gold price-suppression/management.

The ECB is marking her goldreserves already to market and conservative miniature Belgium just abandoned the 50 yrs old maximum prices on the daily loaf of bread ! Bread-prices have been set FREE !!! Euroland's National airline carriers are merging (KLM_AIR FRANCE_ALITALIA) and will compete on real horizontal terms with others. Basta with interventions. Positive liberalization and more genuine Free Market is a serious trend !

This planet will evolve (is evolving) into a new era where we will ALL have to pay (and receive) THE REAL PRICE for real products and services. Emphasis on "ALL" !!! Interventionistic protection of all kinds isn't workable anymore !!! * Exploitation * has reached its top.

Another example of what is happening in the planet's oil-market : Russian and Anglo American oil-clans are moving and shuffling under the present new Arabian oil-situation.
We make the big mistake of thinking that the different oil-clans (oliarchs) are managing the remaining oil reserves for the planet's people prosperity ! The final result of this ongoing oil-struggle will be proper valuation of the remaining oil reserves in function of its "real" worth vis � vis to what is given in exchange for this oil.

Simplier...hyper-price-inflation to come as a more honest global "RE-VALUATION" of real (indispensable) tangibles and services. Sort of meritocraty that approaches real democraty instead of the fake regimes underwich we prosper or perish.

Those who have the power to keep Gold under their control are servicing those that want to oppress powerless masses NOT desiring to obtain power but simply go for self defense.
If Gold was absolutely UN-IMPORTANT, containment or management would be necessary and the metal could become an ordinarry commodity and be trade semi-free.

Do you want to join and enforce the oppressing paper gold forces, that you point as manipulative...or do you prefer to join all those who accumulate Physical Gold as a natural reflex of self defense !? A very difficult choice, indeed !
This choice will become much easier when the paper gold becomes less attractive and a more dangerous place to operate in, for net paper profits. Increasing volatility in Gold's paper-price is NOT going to be of a nature as to bring you more chances for paper profit !!! Constant net profitability in the paper gold market is exclusevily reserved for those who are chosen to operate and manage this market. Not for you or me !!!

In each lotery, there are always 2 winners : One lotery ticket holder for the show and the organiser (two) of the lotery ! Physical Gold in Possession is NOT a lotery ticket, but,...WEALTH...YOUR WEALTH !
Yeeeyayeeh, loteries are fun.....

Nice weekend to all.

silvester

(10/04/2003; 08:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109824)

Random thoughts

We read daily about the strength of the dollar and it's affects on the economy. I wanted to add a few thoughts of my own. Excuse my lack of communicating skills. Bare with me as I struggle to make my point.

By far the majority of posts presented here indicate the dollar must come down in relation to other currencies for America to retain and maintain it's remaining manufacturing base. We have big business lobbying for a weaker dollar, or so we read. I work for a major American based chemical company. I see clearly the fall in value of the dollar as a very sharp double edged sword. The outcome of battle we at the forum are witnessing over the dollar in relation to the Euro and many other currencies and gold is comparable finacially speaking to both world wars I & II combined. I truly believe the outcome will change the way our world behaves no less than if it were being fought militarily. And we have some military action thrown in as well. Let us pray that it gets no more involved than it is now.

I have watched for several years now as problems with commodity/raw materials costs rise and suppress manufacturers ability to profit. I've watched affects of pressure applied from many federal level regulatory agencies such as the EPA(Environmental Pollution Agency), OSHA(Occupational Safety & Health Agency), as well as state agencies, GLO's (General Land Office's), Natural Conservation Agencies and many local level agencies all with concerns about how clean and safe our facilities are operated. Many, many jobs associated with big business in this country are required just to make sure the industry is in conformance with the laws that these agencies enforce. I am not knocking the agencies altogether. Much of this regulation was and still is necessary to keep our water and air clean from the abuses that would and have historically occurred prior to their existence. I'm "straddle the fence" as we say in Texas over this. We all need and want clean air and water. We also need jobs. Does China have these agencies? Do any of the countries whose imports we buy with our billions support clean environment? Or, are their weak currencies and technology not strong enough to handle these concerns? Can America continue to produce under the overhead of our self imposed regulations with a weaker currency which will bring immediate raw material price increases at levels of which we can only imagine?

The strength of our money combined with the abilities of the American worker and workers the world over has provided a strength or boost to the progress of mankind. One that allowed the world to move quickly foward in many areas such as medicine, aeronautics, science, etc. Could go on there but won't. We moved forward so fast thanks to strong and available money usable the world over. This era is playing out now. I am of the opinion that it would be in the worlds best interest for this "adjustment" to play out slowly. We've read that here before and I fully agree. We are teetering on the egde of a massive drop in standard of living for everyone. The slower this plays out the longer the powers that be have to tweak the controls. We should'nt rush this. Yesterdays drop in gold price although disappointing is probably better for us than many realize.

Buy the gold. Buy it here. And be thankful we have a strong currency that makes it possible. Things, they are a changing, quickly.

Druid

(10/04/2003; 09:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109825)

silvester (10/4/03; 08:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109824)

"The strength of our money combined with the abilities of the American worker and workers the world over has provided a strength or boost to the progress of mankind. One that allowed the world to move quickly foward in many areas such as medicine, aeronautics, science, etc. Could go on there but won't. We moved forward so fast thanks to strong and available money usable the world over. This era is playing out now. I am of the opinion that it would be in the worlds best interest for this "adjustment" to play out slowly. We've read that here before and I fully agree. We are teetering on the egde of a massive drop in standard of living for everyone. The slower this plays out the longer the powers that be have to tweak the controls. We should'nt rush this. Yesterdays drop in gold price although disappointing is probably better for us than many realize.

Buy the gold. Buy it here. And be thankful we have a strong currency that makes it possible. Things, they are a changing, quickly."

Druid: If you and I enter into an agreement for 10+ years or more(pick a duration) and in that agreement you will muster all your creative genius and commit your most valuable possession "your time" to me and in return I promise you what you "percieve" to be "money" but ommit to inform you that over the duration of this agreement this "money" will not purchase the same amount of goods and services(lifestyle) over the period initially agreed to and completed thereof, your "standard of living" has decreased not increased. If it takes more dollars to buy a SINGLE thing your standard of living is decreasing because you have to be more productive to acquire more dollars to buy your lifestyle. If a single dollar will buy you MORE lifestyle then your standard of living is increasing because you are not allocating more of your precious time in pursuing your lifestyle. Upon completion of the agreement(trade), I win because I obtained something of precious value(your time) in exchange for something of depleting value(dollars). I certainly will not argue with you about the creative genius(division and specialization of labor) in "medicine, aeronautics, science, etc" of my fellow americans ,its just the future collective epiphany that scares the hell out of me. I hope this helps.

silvester

(10/04/2003; 09:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109826)

Druid

If I understand you correctly, you're suggesting we have already realized a drop in standard of living? I immediately agree. The past 30 years has been both good and bad. Increases in wages has done some to ease the pain although it is clear that it takes 2 average incomes in this country to maintain the lifestyle we once enjoyed not so long ago on less work/effort. So, we were teetering years ago and may have fallen over years ago. It appears we are now gaining speed faster than law of gravity would allow? How far to the bottom Druid?

It seems so unusual that so many seem so unconcerned. Total faith in a system that has worked all our lives to the benefit of many I guess.

Liberty Head

(10/04/2003; 10:09:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109827)

Social-economic-political life

"I am deeply concerned about the apparent apathy of citizens everywhere, about the absence of outrage at the sometimes petty intrusions of governments into our lives, about the failure to appreciate developing crises in welfare democracies. Most fundamentally, I am disturbed by an apparent public failure to appreciate and to understand the relationships between the constitutional structure that defines the parameters of social-economic-political life and the patterns of outcomes that we observe. In the new century, more than ever, we must attend to the rules of the game."

-- James M. Buchanan, "Notes on Nobelity" [1999]
___________________

The above quote comes very close to expressing my own thoughts. I would delete the word "apparent" and replace the phrase "I am deeply concerned" with "I am quite pi__ed off".
The common sense of free markets is all but extinct while romantic illusions of big government rule the day.
Surely things will eventually turn around, however by that time the hole we are digging will be extremely deep. Those who survive the fighting, fleeing and fraud will be much older and much wiser, if quite tired.
Still, I hope to greet that day with a little gold in my pocket and a smile on my face.

Best Wishes

Waverider

(10/04/2003; 10:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109828)

Gandalf, GE

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]waolynay[pc65][i]⪯f=GYes - I think it's important (or at the least reassuring) to refer back to the charts after a day like yesterday. Gandalf - the chart you posted which I've included again here is an excellent example of the bullish symmetrical triangle demonstrated by weekly price ranges. I'm going to reiterate because it's classic; Point 1: Feb'03 @$388.00; Point 2: late March'03 @ $323.00; Point 3: late May'03 @ $375.00; Point 4: early July'03 @ $342.00. Use Points 1& 3 to draw the upper converging trendline, and Points 2 & 4 to draw the lower converging trendline. You will notice that the apex of the triangle is around $358.00-$360.00, and that breakout (BO) above the upper trendline occurs at around $365.00. The triangle meets all TA criteria - 4 reversal points, each trendline is touched at least twice, and BO occurs at 3/4 of the horizontal width of the triangle. The symmetrical triangle is usually a continuation pattern which represents a PAUSE in the existing trend - bullish from 2001 as demonstrated in ge's longer range chart. After the pause, the original trend is resumed. The price target is determined by measuring the base (widest part) of the triangle and measuring that distance above the BO point. I calculate a price target of around $430.00 using this technique. The apex ($358.00-$360.00) acts as an important support level after BO occurs. I agree with Sir Gandalf - the support level has not been penetrated and Spot is STILL in an UPTREND and had only a brief correction yesterday. Cheers,

Waverider

Druid

(10/04/2003; 11:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109829)

silvester (10/4/03; 09:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109826)

"If I understand you correctly, you're suggesting we have already realized a drop in standard of living? I immediately agree. The past 30 years has been both good and bad. Increases in wages has done some to ease the pain although it is clear that it takes 2 average incomes in this country to maintain the lifestyle we once enjoyed not so long ago on less work/effort. So, we were teetering years ago and may have fallen over years ago. It appears we are now gaining speed faster than law of gravity would allow? How far to the bottom Druid?

It seems so unusual that so many seem so unconcerned. Total faith in a system that has worked all our lives to the benefit of many I guess."

Druid: silvester, I apologize for the quick ramble as I'm in the middle of loading tools and equipment to go work on the hovel. Wow! you have asked the trillion dollar/derivative question. I don't kow how long and because I'm dealing with uncertainty of this magnitude, I've had to change my lifestyle big time in order to try and control or bound what little I can predict. This isn't easy. You are absolutely right, this process is picking up steam big time and could spiral out of control at anytime. I hope Maximus and his merry roundtable can hold on a little longer while my little world still transitions(go Maximus, I'm your biggest chearleader right now). Silvester, good luck and take care. You want some real laughter, watch yours truly and his unemployed rocket scientist friend literally design and then construct our own hovels. We were out setting some gate posts last week and this magical activity had my wife in tears she was laughing so hard.

silvester

(10/04/2003; 11:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109830)

Druid

No need to respond now Druid.

If I were near I'd lend a hand. Set more than a few gateposts. My rural upbringing taught me early in that area. Still live rural and hopefully can continue to enjoy the peace, the quietness of country living allows. Good luck on the hovel. No doubt yourself and a rocket scientist are up to the task(grin).

Rural living also instills a sense of preparedness. It is my wish that all people see the signs discussed daily at this site. It's not that complicated. Make the exchange. Trade some dollar for gold. Feel prepared.

(10/04/2003; 12:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109831)

@ Gandalf the White, Waverider

Thanks for the comments. From a pure chartist's point of view, it is a bull market.

All the best,

Great Albino Bat

(10/04/2003; 12:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 109832)

Strange delays in gnomeland....

A friend has shown me documents relating to his attempt to move gold in two CUSTODY ACCOUNTS from the great and famous UBS, Zurich, to another private Swiss bank.

His first attempt was in June 2003, for one custody account, followed by a second attempt for another custody account, on August 5.

After considerable DELAY (end of August) he was informed that "UBS needed more information on the accounts to which the transfer was to be delivered." This is appears to be a ridiculous request, since all that was needed was an interbank phone call. But, let that pass.

The required information was duly given on September 4, for both custody accounts.

ONE MONTH HAS PASSED, AND THE TRANSFER OF PHYSICAL HAS YET TO BE CARRIED OUT!!!

This is very strange. Is UBS having difficulty effecting the transfer because - THEY DO NOT HAVE THE GOLD IN THE CUSTODY ACCOUNT? What else is one to think?

Why don't they buy the required gold, in that case?

Possible answer: my friend's request is only one of a very large number, that cannot be complied with. That would have to be a very large amount...

If the transfer is effected soon - why this utterly preposterous delay?

Stay tuned. And: there is nothing like physical in YOUR HANDS.

The GAB

CoBra(too)

(10/04/2003; 14:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109833)

"It's not for Gold alone " -

The title of a book written by Franc Joubin, who has hit it big in mining and I've had the pleasure to meet up with him.

No, it's not for gold alone ... it's about you'r living standards being degraded by the paper pushers. It's about (financial) survival in the long and now in the short run.

... And it's about a systemic collapse, which is averted by all for today ... Tomorrow may be another day!
No cheers ... cb2

DryWasher

(10/04/2003; 14:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109834)

Strange delays in gnomeland....

@Great Albino Bat (msg#: 109832)

One other possible reason for the delay in transferring your friends gold from one account to another could be the attempt of governments worldwide to stop the flow of untraceable funds, and gold in particular, which just might be terrorist related.

In other words perhaps the transfer is being held up while your friend is being "checked out" by government agencies of some kind. Somehow that thought doesn't make me feel particularly comfortable.

More reasons to protect your life savings by investing them in PHYSICAL GOLD, held in your possession in a safe place where those who would take it from you can't find it.

As always, Sir GAB, I very much enjoy reading your posts and look forward to reading many more from you, and take care.

DryWasher

Smeagol

(10/04/2003; 14:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109835)

Precious in handses!

O, what could be better than one Silver Precious? TWO, that's what (toothy ear-to ear grin)!!

We got Contesst Prizes the other day and they are beauteous to behold! Smeagol thanks Centennial Precious Metals for ssponsoring the Contessts and the Forum, Marie for her kindness, and all at Castle of the Round Table (bow). As we reads the postss day-to-day, our debt of gratitude grows like fiat (which we are saving up to
get us a golden Precious too, and soon, O yes). The Free Knowledge in this Forum is worth more than It, in our opinion.

It looks like Gandalf's Golden Rocket coastss for a while, before the ssecond sstage lights (and maybe It dives and loops, Precious, but always ever higher).

S.

Great Albino Bat

(10/04/2003; 15:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109836)

DryWasher: your possible explanation....

Unfortunately, that explanation is not applicable, because both the custody accounts (allocated!) and the parties involved, are all fully identified and of long standing.

My friend is going to find himself a good Swiss lawyer, if this thing is not settled immediately.

Moral: don't trust anyone, especially big international banks (UBS does not qualify as a Swiss bank anymore; its operations are worldwide and subject to US blackmail).

Get your gold here, and keep it under YOUR control.

The GAB

turkey hunter

(10/04/2003; 16:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109837)

Going for the gold ??

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/05/international/middleeast/05DUBA.html?ex=1065931200&en=dbea8cbc22796c9d&ei=5062∂ner=GOOGLEU.S. Is Focusing on Dubai as Financial Center for Terrorists

silvercollector

(10/04/2003; 17:16:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109838)

The Dubai article just posted by turkey hunter

snip:

"Describing the United Arab Emirates as a clandestine rendezvous for planners of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States....."

I don't follow the officals in the US government.

In the immediate aftermath of 9/11 Bin Laden was targeted as the primary villain and the 'carpet' bombing of Afganistan ('the hellhole') began. Pakistan was cited from time to time as shady place and of course Saudi Arabia was cause for blame as well.

There were issues with Yemen and Syria and Iran and Iraq. Eventually Iraq became the 'focal point' because they were terrorists of a general sense and hell if we can kill (literally) 3 or 4 birds with one stone......

On any given day a host of Middle Eastern countries can be blamed for a host of terrorist activities. Today, the United Arab Emirates get the nod as the world's worst terrorists.

I guess the wheels and brass of the US officialdom just don't get it. They ALL hate you equally.

DryWasher

(10/04/2003; 18:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109839)

Strange delays in gnomeland....

@Great Albino Bat (msg#: 109836)

In your reply you wrote:

"Unfortunately, that explanation is not applicable, because both the custody accounts (allocated!) and the parties involved, are all fully identified and of long standing.

My friend is going to find himself a good Swiss lawyer, if this thing is not settled immediately."

Yes Sir, I understand that the situation is one where the transaction SHOULD NOT be held up to allow government to investigate your friend, but I would not be too quick to assume that despite that fact that it still may not be a possible factor, nor would I rule out your suggested explanation either.

The U. S. Government is applying tremendous pressure to governments and institutions all over the world, as well as here at home, to check out ALL transactions, and I am very much afraid that can and will have detrimental affects on totally legitimate transactions of the type you were describing.

Turkey hunter's post, (msg#: 109837), of a few minutes ago is a case in point of the type of pressure I am speaking of, and I think it is reasonable to assume that the Swiss are feeling that pressure as well as is Dubai.

Perhaps it won't be long before the banks will be asking us all questions like:

"So what are you going to do with this money? Buy GOLD you say. Sorry but that requires us to fill out a form DDxx275, submit it to the government for approval, but it usually takes less than a year for approval if you have a clean background".

As you said "Get your gold here, and keep it under YOUR control." to which I would just add while you still can.

Thanks for listening to my rant, and please let us all know how it turns out with your friend. My guess would be that the bank will finally do the transfer, but will never give a satisfactory answer as to the reason for the holdup. Have a good evening.

DryWasher.

Liberty Head

(10/04/2003; 20:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109840)

Factory Closures Devastate U.S. Towns

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20031004/bs_nm/bizmanufacturing_dcSnippit:
The exodus of 1,600 Maytag jobs is only the tip of the iceberg in Galesburg. Everyone from sheet metal suppliers to local firms providing toilet paper and light bulbs rely on the plant for business in the town of about 33,700 about 150 miles southwest of Chicago

"I see so many people that I worked with at Boeing, and they're still unemployed just as I am," said Summers. She blames free trade and President Bush for allowing U.S. companies to outsource overseas.

_____________

I read stories like this one and I really feel bad for these folks. The most unfortunate part is when I see comments like the one above. Folks truly do not understand the nature of the problem. Without that understanding, the situation is sure to get worse.

Best wishes

Max Rabbitz

(10/04/2003; 21:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109841)

JOBS JOBS JOBS

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlStephan Roach of Morgan Stanley points out a bill introduced in Congress to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods. The last option for politicians to create jobs before the next election.

A snippet:

"The most worrisome aspect of this possibility is that there is no effective counterweight anywhere in the political spectrum. That is not the way politics normally work in America. Usually, Congress threatens to go over the cliff and the White House steps in at the last minute and prevents disaster. The Reagan administration's resistance to Japan bashing in the 1980s is a classic example of how these checks and balances work. That's not the case today. Political support for actions against China is broad-based -- by party, ideology, and geography."

Max........then who is going to buy all that treasury debt? And without cheap imports our consumer price index will start to reflect reality, knocking down both bonds and stock valuations, and increasing government obligations in social security and other entitlement programs. There is no way out. Just a matter of time before the players start looking for exits. Then panic. How long did it take the hot money to leave Mexico a few years ago? There was a time when most people didn't look to the government to provide prosperity, but that was a very long time ago. Back when economics was taught in high schools and currency units were tied to something real. So.....I try to get something real while it's still available.....and a few other supplies.

Belgian

(10/05/2003; 01:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109842)

@ Max Rabbitz

Tariffs on imports (Chinese & other) = More of the same " protectionism" ! As the dollar-reserve is to be/remain "protected" from Gold !!! What else is the underlying meaning of all sorts of "intervention", than pure protectionism !? To intervene is to protect through regulation, read domination !!!

Political economies : Intervention - Regulation - Domination or simply UNFREE MARKETS. When everything is messed up...one hears those calls for FAIRNESS !?

In the global floating currency circus, winning and profitable producers MUST suddenly upvalue their currency while the dollar reserve has been upvalued simply by/with the power (often manu military) to suppress the ultimate golden standard to wich a currency should be referred to in the first place.

The global economical unbalances are the result of different parties' constant striving for economic supremacy through the tool par excellence of currency-management.

What choices are there left for the dollar ? A strong *leading* dollar or a weak/weakening dollar reserve currency that is going to exclude the dollar-block further from the global economic process, through internal (US) detoriation (hyperinflation and more protectionism) and change in global trade flows ?

Is a compromise between a strong and weak dollar, still manageable-workable at this stage of the dollar reserve status ??? That's what we (the planet-?) are watching and hoping for as to let the economic show go further.

That's why "Instinctively" more Gold will be accumulated by those who "have" something to protect, preserve !!!

MINER49ER : Give us some clues, Sir ! TIA.

Belgian

(10/05/2003; 02:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109843)

About jobs.....

Now that we (the West) have been exporting so many jobs to those parts of the globe that have Billions of workers and currencies that weren't worth the paper on wich it was printed...we seem to have landed in an irreversable catch 22 situation. An increasing unilateral flow of goods and services in exchange for more confetti stashes and less goods and services in return. Huge (billions) and increasing trade deficits (= imbalance)!

THIS IS NOT NEW ! We have been covering this up with the creation of temporary and "subsidized" jobs (DEBT DRIVEN)that produce very little in exchange for what is done eastwards.

Those lost jobs will NEVER come back and we have installed the backbones (skeletons) of an industrial economy, outside our Western territories. East and Far East will go on developping, internally as soon as their "export" trade with the West is declining. They will create more real jobs (millions) whilst we have to restart our own internal productive economies.

Our main problem is that we don't want - cannot, turn our prosperity-clocks, backwards !!! We can't cover up our strategic mistakes with more of the same confetti expansion and artificial over-valuations of printed matter.

Billions of non Westerners are saturating us economically, whilst they, themselves, still have a long way to go to reach our levels of broad prosperity for all.

These sudden, fast rising, unemployment figures appearing after such a *presumed* period of (false) expansion, are a scary sign on the wall ! That's why these calls for "structural changes" will have to be repeated for some time to come. Alas, we (most of us) will NOT go to work harder for less !! Serious (old and faster growing) fundamental problem imo.

Once ALL currencies are going to reflect people's real worth...it will be much easiere to implement the known and needed structural changes. That would be "fair", wouldn't it ?

Caradoc

(10/05/2003; 02:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109844)

RE: Strange Delays in Gnomeland

The delay was only twenty minutes, but I learned that in "the land of the free" you can't show up with cash and do a wire transfer to another country. They have to be able to "vouch where the money came from." The twenty-minute solution was to do the paperwork to open a checking account I'll probably never use again (don't need a checking account at the place where I pay my mortgage), deposit the cash into the new account, and THEN wire the funds minus the amount necessary to avoid a monthly charge on the new checking account.

So, twenty minutes of my life used up by doing something pointless. If simply depositing cash in a checking account is sufficient "laundering" to make money respectable, we're getting a lot more government awareness than we are "security."

I think it was Ben Franklin who said that those willing to give up freedom in exchange for security will end up with neither.

Caradoc

(10/05/2003; 03:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109845)

Orlandini on a possible bear trap

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini100603.html.

silvercollector

(10/05/2003; 04:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109846)

Manipulation

What really bothers me about Friday is the timing of the drop, about 12:15/12:20pm.

Waverider and Gandalf were the first to spot the crooks in action. I've read the usual over the last 24 hrs. and alot of folks are discussing the jobs report, the jobs report. If I'm not mistaken it came out at 8:30am, no? Checking spot, there was a 3 dollar POG (spot) beginning at 8:25 (why at 8:25? 5 minute leak?) but it had nearly recovered by 10:10am.

Referring to the share prices in the 10:15-10:30 window many (most) were in fact up probably reflecting the fact that physical had shaken off the (rebounding) 'jobs' report.
However in perfect unison with physical the shares took a beating immediately after high noon. What is interesting is that a couple shares started their freefall at 11:50/11:55 while most started at noon or shortly afterwards but in any event all (most) started in advance of spot.

It's as if traders KNEW something was afoot even if it was only in advance of common knowledge by 10 minutes or so.

I read Sinclair latest and he blames the job report (I just don't get the near 4 hour time lag) and reports that some number was messed up badly and we will get a huge reversal almost immediately.

I haven't checked the dollar index chart today but I believe the sharp upticking began at noon; I will have to check again because the timing is most interesting. If the serious updraft began pre-noon the gold shares drift would be explained but one might wonder why spot waited until 12:20. If the updraft co-incides with gold at 12:20 one might wonder how the traders (SM) knew in advance at 11:50-12:00)

Anyways..........I often have this premonition/dream that someone (a 'heavy' hitter) in the likes of Greenspan etc. has a sudden, one on one interview with a news anchor explaining/announcing the crooked rot in the political/financial system(s). Hopefully at 9:31 am on a Monday (hee hee...markets would be closed at 9:32)

And in any event......Friday's action was rotten, rotten to the core. That was not anything more than pure 'management'. Thanks to Gandalf and Waverider for pointing it out. Boils my blood, what does it do for you?

Off to see the dollar index to confirm the crooks.

Caradoc

(10/05/2003; 04:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109847)

GAO's Comp Gen on US debt

http://www.respondanet.com/english/publications/Gaowalker.pdfVery little press coverage of this speech, especially considering that it was delivered to the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. by David Walker, the nation's Comptroller General.

Snippet #1:
...while we are starting off in a financial hole we don't really have a very
good picture of how deep it is. Specifically, there are a number of very significant
items that are not currently included as liabilities in the federal government's
financial statements; for example, several trillion dollars in non-marketable
government securities in so-called "Trust Funds." In the case of the Social Security
and Medicare Trust Funds, the federal government took in taxpayer money, spent it
on other items and replaced it with an IOU. Given this fact, why aren't the amounts
attributed to such activities shown as a "liability" of the U.S. Government? At the
present time, they are not! Does this make sense, especially when the government
continues to tell Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries that they can count on
the bonds in these "Trust Funds"? Is the federal government trying to have its cake
and eat it too?
The current U.S government liability figures also do not adequately consider veterans�
health care benefit costs provided through the Department of Veteran's Affairs nor do
they include the difference between future promised and funded benefits in
connection with the Social Security and Medicare programs. These additional
amounts total tens of trillions of dollars in discounted present value terms. Stated
differently, they are likely to exceed $100,000 in additional burden for every man,
woman and child in America today, and these amounts are growing every day.

Snippet #2:
With regard to existing policies and programs, it is time to restructure existing
entitlement programs to make them secure, sustainable and aligned with 21st
Century economic, demographic and other realities.

So, in addition to Congressman Ron Paul and Anthony Principi -- secretary of Veterans Affairs -- the federal government has a third person who will stand up on his hind legs and speak the truth. The Comp Gen's prescriptions amount to a bitter pill of strong medicine. Restructuring social security, for example, to acknowledge 21st century demographic realities would mean planning for a greater percentage of recipients living into their 80s and 90s (spread that money thinner!) and taking into account that most 62 and 65 year olds are still potentially productive.

Such strong medicine would allow the US to quit "digging the hole deeper" and even begin to get out of it. The odds of that happening are exactly the same as the odds of any political party nominating Ron Paul or Anthony Principi or David Walker for President. Instead, politicians will yammer about a "lock box" (containing an I.O.U.!!) and members of the AARP will receive their full social security checks right up to the day the whole house of cards collapses.

Might be a good idea to arrange for your own security. Thanks to the "boyz" of Comex, gold is temporarily available at sale prices. Just call our hosts at 1(800)869-5115. I suspect they'll be able to give you a better price on Monday than they will on Friday.

Caradoc

PS: With Gulf War vets (Army and Air Force) suffering from ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease) at 2 to 2.7 times the expected rate, some already dead and others crawling around on their hands and knees because they couldn't afford wheelchairs, policy wonks at the VA presented their plan for arguing against any link between the disease and Gulf War service. Principi threw them out of his office and did the right thing. Kind of nice to know that a few of my tax dollars are being spent honorably even though cars run just fine on alcohol or natural gas (both producible from agricultural products) and there was no need to send troops into harm's way to secure "the free flow of oil at market prices [denominated in US dollars]."

(10/05/2003; 05:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109848)

Sir Silvercollector

Friday's price action smells manipulation, yes. Who triggered it? Orlandini suggests that, MAYBE, bull interest did it to set up a bear trap and pass the 380-400 resistance zone with minimum expenditure. Presently, we do not know the answer. Monday will show it. In fact, it is not very important while sitting on physical gold. Just gossiping while sipping my tea�. All the best.

Tate

(10/05/2003; 07:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109849)

Simpla quastion ???

If everything is being manipulated and "managed" in United States of America today, what is left pure?

Chris Powell

(10/05/2003; 07:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109850)

Embry endorses GATA in interview on 'Financial Sense Newshour'

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1707Sprott Asset Management President John Embry
and Central Fund of Canada CEO Scott Spicer
are interviewed on Jim Puplava's "Financial Sense
Newshour," wherein Embry specifically endorses
GATA's work.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

cockerel1

(10/05/2003; 09:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109851)

Tate - msg#: 109849

Look in the mirror!

You are either part of the solution to "clean up the mess",
or you are part of the problem.

For the most part, the "Movers and Shakers" have manipulated the whole western world into a "false Eden".

By a process of elimination, you can "weed out" the small group type who have brought us to this "stage of the game".

Ask yourself this question and you begin the process.

What "types" of people were responsible for introducing "Fiat" and why?

The "why" is very simple. Because the alternative, gold and silver is real and not subject to manipulation without Fiat.

Have fun with answering the question of who the "real" culprits are.

Liberty Head

(10/05/2003; 10:38:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109852)

RE: Caradoc msg# 109847

Caradoc, Thanks for posting the GAO report. It is refreshing to hear a gov't insider speak the truth and stand up for transparency and accountability.

Nice as it is to hear the words, only actions and deeds will score points with me. You summed it up quite well by equating the odds of positive change happening to the odds of positive election results for the likes of Rep. Ron Paul.
Before that can happen, millions of voters will need some lessons in economics and common sense. Folks who tend to think and vote with their hearts are easy prey for the minipulators. Once these same folks realize they have been used and are feeling the pain, their fury and rage will help drive the changes needed.
I think the recall of California Gov. Dufus is only the begining of what promisses to be a huge shift in the U.S. political landscape.
Once again, California is at the forefront of a gold rush.

Best Wishes

CoBra(too)

(10/05/2003; 10:54:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109853)

Doubt the Rout!

I'm not quite underwriting the notion - as Belgian expressed yesterday - that Friday's POG rout was solely due to the paper gold markets of COMEX or LBMA.

After all, these (paper) futures markets are setting the price for the real McCoy. Meaning that astute accumulators of bullion are offered another windfall in their long term strategies.

Meanwhile, I've become so accustumed to watch these desperados running the stops from time to opportune times, that I personally feel ever more emboldened to take the gift offered by these nincompoops every once in a while.

Personally, I'd consider this window of opportunity as a shallow one and act accordingly. - And if you'd need another sign of the desperation of the paper pushers, just consider the employement BLS figures, being revisioned after market close - only!

Stray the course ... cb2

Knallgold

(10/05/2003; 11:16:00 MDT - Msg ID: 109854)

Saudi Arabia/Friday

-Read today on Teletext that Schr�der is going to visit Saudi Arabia with about 13 topmanagers with him.

-On the Friday action,I go out on a limb: the paper Gold market has started to go up in smoke!Something is in the works by the physical faction,Silver held 5 for a long time,the euro firmly on its feet,POG above 360 for a long time=damage done,"unofficial" talk in Dubai on Goldplans for next year:TPTB are ready for the bumpy transition paper-->physical Gold,the ETF by the WGC as the "shadowinstrument" (FOA) of the new leading euro Goldparadigma is ready to trade and participate in a way!

Something big is about to happen soon!FOA might be so busy not even having time for gardening,nevermind posting a quick note!?

Waverider

(10/05/2003; 11:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109855)

Israel strikes at Palestinian training camp on Syrian soil

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/346835.html"The UN Security Council has scheduled an unoffocial closed-door meeting for Sunday evening to discuss an Israeli airstrike earlier in the day on targets deep inside Syria. Israeli warplanes attacked a training camp used by a number
of anti-Israeli and Islamic militant groups on the Syria-Lebanon border on Sunday, in retaliation for a suicide bombing that killed 19 people in Israel.

It was the first time in decades that Israel has carried out strikes inside Syria. The United States called for restraint on all sides on Sunday. "We urge all sides to exercise restraint and to keep in mind the consequences
of their actions," the State Department said in a statement.

Meanwhile, a senior aide to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that Israel could launch new attacks on Syria if Damascus continues to shelter terrorist organizations. Syria said on Sunday the Israeli airstrike had targeted a civilian site near Damascus in a "grave escalation" of tensions in the Middle East. Syrian commentators expressed surprise at the Israeli strike, since Damascus has repeatedly claimed that it does not have any Islamic Jihad
training bases on it soil. Syrian sources say that Israel is �playing with fire,; and that the situation could rapidly deteriorate into regional conflict. There has been no official Syrian reaction to the attack. "We do not have any training camps or bases in Syria or any other country," he said. "All our bases are inside the Palestinian occupied
territories."

Waverider: Well, they just upped the ante in the ME. Imagine the US recommending that the players "keep in mind the consequences of their actions"! The only path I see for this is a serious regional escalation of the conflict. This next week will definitely prove "interesting"!

BTW Silvercollector - re: Friday's market action - no, I don't like the blatant manipulation, but it does not deter me from my long term goals.

Druid

(10/05/2003; 12:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109856)

Druid's World

Druid: I was smoking my imaginary funny pipe this morning and trying to reach out into the spirit world when I entertained this thought: take a trillion dollars and start your bidding at $5000 an ounce(holding everything else constant since we live in a static world); how many ounces of the killer yellow metal can you acquire? Now, fast forward and cross over into the real dynamic world where change is a constant and introduce more bidders and more trillions of dollars, yen,...etc. and then try to imagine what the textbook market clearing price would, should or could be. My guess is its just a little north of $400 an ounce. Well, I'm off to find a hot tub so I can boil my pain away.

Belgian

(10/05/2003; 13:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109857)

@COBRA-too

You : ...astute accumulators of bullion are offered another windfall in their long term strategies.
Have been thinking on this...

The action on LBMA+COMEX+TOCOM is "only" 1/5 (20%) of the total daily - global action on public Gold (paper + Physical) !!!
The remaining 4/5 of the Gold action is NOT for statistical purposes !!! In other words, there is an official market for Gold with visible pricing and there is a rather unvisible market with, most probably, a more different price pattern that is not necessarely always tracking the official price. Maybe we should call this the Gold discount market only for the Giant insiders that may participate.

The official POG that we see is paper-driven and the stealth market is rather Physical-driven. The paper-POG is serving many other purposes than the Physical-POG. Unfortunately we have no statistics (official + unofficial) on Physical Gold moves and are not able to speculate with enough evidence on the relationship between these two different Gold markets.

2,500 TONNES of yearly new mined Gold mean that theoretically 10 tonnes a day are a normal shipment for the gold trade. Add the 500 tonnes of scrap and the 400 tonnes of CB gold and the daily total becomes around 15 tonnes a day that moves around. I've been told that much more than 15 tonnes a day of Physical Gold is moving and changing hands.

May we than conclude that only a fraction of total daily Physical Gold trade is done at the indicated official paper price !? Most probably, this is happening.

Higher (increasing) volatility in paper POG indicates to me that more Physical unvisible Gold is on the move, not necessary on the paper POG prices but at a wider divergence (up or down) from the official price, the more this one becomes volatile.

And therefor, your remark might be very correct. The astute Gold accumulators do know the dollar decline target and want to have excess (declining) dollars exchanged for Physical in Possession, because the dollar decline (devaluation) will be irreversable and gain momentum.

Paper POG must be managed as to make time for more Physical to become "available" for further accumulation !

Many people may be specialist in a specific part of the Gold markets, but very, very few have a *total* overvieuw of this oliarchic market. That is the extreme privilege of a handfull of dynasties.

With the ECB's marking to market new gold reserve principle...I don't expect these famous dynasties to hold their power on the Unfree Gold trade for much longer !?
What do you reckon ?

CoBra(too)

(10/05/2003; 15:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109858)

Paper Gold Trading -

@Belgian - Sir, I seem to recall that the LBMA traded about twice the gold ever mined per year - admittedly in its best years. This sent kind'a phony message to the world at large an to advocates of physical gold holders in particular.

Even as we may realize, that the OTC markets, trading in gold derivatives may be even larger in quantity, the fact remains that the "official" (comes close to a more denigrating word by omitting a few letters...) futures exchanges are price setting mechanism's for the underlying
asset.

As I'm aware of the mechanics of bullion trading, which is still primarily conducted under Swiss terms and regulations - still the largest market for bullion settlements - it is usually effected at a discount a/o premium to the LBMA spot fixes.

So it still is a case of wag the dog and not a case of the real value establishing its rightful place - Value!

Well, as long as the system is phony enough to allow even minnows like me to exchange some crummy fiat paper for the reality of ancient value(s)- can I complain?

Regards - cb2

Gondolin

(10/05/2003; 16:26:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109859)

Gold Standard 1087986

Gold Standard,

Je comprende!!Yes I get confused and bamboozled too when I try and follow some of the deeper arts of economics , though I understand the drift of what is illustrated.

It matters not because the fundamentals are constant.

If you have the know-how you can trade and make a few fast bucks on the fibionnachi or VIX indicators or whatever, but there is really only one constant that should be looked at.

I have neither the ability nor the funds to make the moves that some of our more learned and more educated colleagues can, other than investing what available funds I do have in PMs.

We only need to know one thing. We are in the early stages of a Gold Bull Market.

As Another and FOA have enlightened us all, the biggest footsteps are the ones we need to follow.

Respectfully.

spotlight

(10/05/2003; 16:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109860)

Trillions of $ divirsifying into $millions?

Belgian
Ihave a problem understanding how gold cannot be soaring, with the trillions of dollars sloshing around the world, together with reports of the Asians, Indian, China, Russians ect.diversifying out of the dollar into gold. It is reported that the currency and bond markets trade in the trillions. The gold market, you estimate, trades 15 tons a day. That's less than $200 million per day. Change from $1 billion would be $800 million! It would take China alone, purchasing all gold offered (15 tons per day) years before their reserves could be converted to gold. In other words, it seems that gold is not really being bought, by all of the above, in any meaningful dollar amount in comparison to their reserves. Of course, one could say, that is a very bullish aspect for gold, once the momentum into gold accellerates. In the mean time, absent any accompanying large spike in the gold price, it's hard to get excited when reports come in stating how, for instance, Some major central bank is diverifying dollar reserves into gold.
One other question: Is there any way to estimate how much actual physical gold hit the market on friday?

Mr Gresham

(10/05/2003; 17:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109861)

Sustainability?

http://www.dieoff.com/With the new questioning this week on oil reserve levels (was it BB who posted it? or has he commented yet on it -- I can't recall) the topic and link above take on new urgency.

The food resources dependent on petroleum-based fertilizers (and packaging, and transportation, etc etc) will be cut sharply, putting a premium on having one's own land and seeds and water supply for growing a ration to survive on. Perhaps a small farming business will become the highest-margin profit center possible in such a constrained future?

What currency system we have, and whether Social Security is paying the promised checks, and whether the debt load is payable by government and consumers alike, may be problems left in the dust by the very quick collapse of the petroleum-fueled First World economy.

Aristotle

(10/05/2003; 18:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109862)

For Spotlight -- the crux of it

You: "I have a problem understanding how gold cannot be soaring, with the trillions of dollars sloshing around the world ... it seems that gold is not really being bought..."

Ari says:

You nailed it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD is not really being bought. What IS being bought -- hook, line, and sinker -- is the notion that paper Gold is functionally equivalent to the real thing. The amount of paper Gold flooding the market for buyers' to swallow and choke on can come from the source just as easily and rapidly as the blowing piles of dollars do, thus keeping the "public price" for Gold-realm investments in stasis.

As enough people shun the paper Gold the illusion will fade, revealing physical Gold's legitimate market value somewhere north of the moon.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Cometose

(10/05/2003; 18:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109863)

DOW/GOLD

Tim Wood who is a student of DOW theory...had some interesting things to say in his latest newsletter... this weekend about the DOw and sister indexes and GOLD...

He said that there was weakness in the present stock market rally in volume and in the way the issues were being traded. He referred to this as a dull market.... because of the action that resembles distribution happening and he said that this exact pattern " three tops and and a dome has appeared before and is well known to some....In 1920 and 21 this pattern appeared and 1929 and 1987....
HE said that there are two numbers to now watch for on the DOW .....In order to clear the bear pattern that is being assessed to this market the DOw needs to clear 9686 on and intraday basis or 9662 as a close........On the othere end of the spectrum and support of the bear pattern he referred to , a close below 9275 would be confirmation of the resumption of the downward trend and it may look like a waterfall after it starts...

HE said that GOLD is confirmed its bull position by its move intraday last week well above 390 but needs to clear 390 again soon........

It will be interesting to see these events unfold...

Topaz

(10/05/2003; 18:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109864)

Bond action and reactive move of PoG

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10Interesting action seen Friday as sentiment shifted from future expectations to a more immediate resolve...look at those Bond Yields!! Golds over-reaction and subsequent slight retracement this morn does not bode well for paperGold advocates imo.

Chris Powell

(10/05/2003; 18:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109865)

Another bombshell by James Turk via GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1708How the U.S. government ran the stops on the Comex
gold market on Friday, and new discrepancies in
Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department gold
accounts provide evidence of the manipulation.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Druid

(10/05/2003; 18:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109866)

Tipping Point?

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnippit

The truly frightening aspect of these circumstances is that both the GSEs and central banks have succumbed to Bubble dynamics. Individually and in concert, it is Inflate or Die. With the parlous mortgage finance Bubble, an incredibly leveraged Credit system, and a hopelessly distorted Bubble economy requiring massive and unrelenting Credit inflation/currency debasement, it is a safe assumption that dollar vulnerability is here to stay. Moreover, the out-performance of non-dollar assets (real investment and economies, financial markets and assets, and basic commodities) will augment dollar liquidation. And just as King Dollar foreign inflows were self-reinforcing during the late-nineties, there is evidence that non-dollar flows (investment and speculative) are now increasingly fueling self-reinforcing expansions overseas. This is especially the case throughout Asia (including India), Russia, Eastern Europe, Australia and elsewhere. This is the essence of my now weekly "Global Reflation Watch" and keen focus on foreign economies and markets. Global reflation is a dollar problem and central bank problem.

I do see relative strong performance sufficient to sustain major non-dollar flows. Foreign central banks, then, will continue to have no attractive alternative other than further dollar "Buyers of Last Resort" accumulation. We "owe (them) a lot of money, the banks� got a problem;" a huge and ballooning problem. In reality, foreign central banks can't turn off the Credit/liquidity spigot any more than the GSEs can turn it off. It's out of control domestically and internationally. The speculative marketplace fully appreciates this dangerous dynamic, as the perception of endless global liquidity solidifies.

Mr. McTeer provided an additional candid and pertinent comment Wednesday night:

"One of the great things about moving to Texas after the banking crisis was that Texans are willing to talk about their bank failures, their own failures, and there's no embarrassment about it whatsoever. It's a very entrepreneurial country and we're in the center of the entrepreneurial part of the country. And we'll survive whatever they throw at us. I don't know what the next external shock might be. It might just be that the current account deficit finally reaches a Tipping Point."

Current account deficit reaching a Tipping Point? Are such thoughts even allowed at the Federal Reserve? Well, there is absolutely no doubt we are heading toward a major dollar crisis. The issue is only when. There is no doubt in my mind that the GSE Bubble will burst, and there are certainly enough issues unfolding to keep our analytical interest. These institutions and the marketplace are seemingly doing everything possible to ensure that this inevitable financial dislocation will be historic. I also have no doubt that the foreign central bank dollar Bubble will come to a most unpleasant end. That the interplay of these two ultra-powerful financing mechanisms has evolved to foster unprecedented Credit and speculative excess throughout the world is a deeply despairing worst-case-scenario unfolding right before our eyes.

To wrap this up, it appears we have entered what will be a wildly unstable environment, as we meander towards some type of financial "resolution." Yet there is today an atypically fine line between financial dislocation (likely related to the dollar) and abundant global liquidity unlike anything seen in our lifetimes. There is a fine line between a "Tipping Point" break in dollar confidence and desperate foreign central bank dollar purchases (unprecedented global liquidity injections). There is similarly a thin line between endless liquidity supporting our leveraged Credit system and consequences of incessant liquidity excess at some point terrorizing it. And it does today appear reasonable to presuppose that things may look absolutely wonderful to most right up until the proverbial "wheels come flying off." Most financial crises develop as liquidity disappears over a period of time. But the nature of the runaway GSE/central bank financial Bubbles may dictate that enormous over-liquidity works its seductive magic until it abruptly doesn't work anymore: a systemic crisis of confidence.

In the meantime, there is this massive speculative community placing leveraged bets on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, Credit, spreads, and God knows what else. Additionally, there will be an unfolding Battle Royal as bets are placed as to how this all plays out, only ensuring greater chaos in the markets. An incredibly unstable environment has been nurtured, and we are today forced to be on guard for extreme price movements across the spectrum of now highly interrelated markets. This week had the "feel" of a commencement of some type of systemic dislocation, with an initial convulsion to the upside, at least for stocks. I wonder what Larry Kudlow would think of this week's Bulletin?

Druid: Using more credit to fix a credit problem. I don't think it will work but its worth a shot.

Druid

(10/05/2003; 18:59:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109867)

Aristotle (10/5/03; 18:03:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 109862)

"As enough people shun the paper Gold the illusion will fade, revealing physical Gold's legitimate market value somewhere north of the moon."

Druid: Yes! Sir Aristotle, it will just start testing its warp drive capability once it passes the moon. Every second of every minute of every hour....these ghouls continue to spring load this baby.

Druid

(10/05/2003; 20:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109869)

Global Systemic Pollution!

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=26994Snippit

There is a document produced by the Federal Reserve (unfortunately lagged a couple of months) called the Z1. Little known, it should be mandatory, required reading. Obviously, for those having interest, it can be readily accessed at the Fed website. For interpretation, there are many astute analysts; we particularly value, Doug Noland at Prudent Bear and our friend Gillespie at Gillespie Research Associates. Nevertheless, we also drag our own inept attempts at analysis direct. The most recent Z1 we find to be shocking! The number that leaps out is the $700 billion INCREASE in the net number that the "rest of the world" has from the U.S. in excess of the amount the U.S. has from the "rest of the world". The total now exceeds $4 TRILLION! From the end of WWII to the early 1980's, the U.S. was first a massive and then progressively smaller net creditor or OWNER of MORE than THEY ("the rest of the world") OWNED. At yearend 2002, THEY OWNED $3.3 trillion more than the U.S. OWNED and at 6/30 our net debtor position increased to $4.0 trillion. 20%+ IN SIX MONTHS!

What does all this have to do with the title?
It is the writer's belief that Mr. Magoo, the current Fed Chairman, still denying the dotcom/telecom bubble he foistered on the suckers, and oblivious of the recently diminishing if not punctured housing bubble his frantic response to the near recession of 2001 created, has engineered quite a bit of collateral damage in economies around the globe.

He and the parallel credit creation mechanism known as the GSE's have proliferated so much CREDIT thereby as to cause SYSTEMIC CREDIT POLLUTION globally. Not understanding the equity refrain of 10% "over the long haul," the writer prefers investments in debt. Readers of past missives know that, in recent years, a qualifier of foreign denominated has been added as it has increasingly become apparent that the U.S., although probably AAA rated forever, is an increasingly poor exchange risk. What we are getting at now, however, is that the SPLURGE in credit globally occasioned by what we call THE SPILLOVER EFFECT from the Fed/GSE blastoff in credit creation coupled with an emasculation of interest rates has ABSOLUTELY AND COMPLETELY POLLUTED GLOBAL CREDIT. THE PRICE OF CREDIT (THE SPREAD) SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE INHERENT RISK IN THAT CREDIT, BUT THE PRICE OF CREDIT IS BEING TOTALLY WARPED BY THE AVAILABILITY OF COMPLETE LIQUIDITY ON A GLOBAL BASIS OCCASIONED BY THE U.S. LIQUIDITY CREATION MACHINES AND THE FED DRIVEN COLLAPSE IN SHORT TERM RATES!

A COROLLARY OF THE ABOVE IS THAT THE INFAMOUS "CARRY TRADE" PLAY (Borrow low and short and lend higher and long) IS NOW POSSIBLE IN MOST GLOBAL MONEY MARKETS.

Druid: Z1? Anyone, what's after Trillion? TIA

Liberty Head

(10/05/2003; 21:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109870)

Word of the Week

Escalation - rise(n.), acceleration, intensification, boom

Keep you hands and arms inside the vehicle. This weeks ride will be wild.

Best Wishes

Tate

(10/05/2003; 21:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109871)

Movers and Shakers

Thanks for responding cockerel.

Hollywood's film "Platoon" showing American boys dying in Vietnam ends with following words something like: We where not fighting outside enemy, our enemy was within us.
I can add: human greed progresses with prosperity. Every civilization that introduced fiat currency was eventually doomed in self-destruction.
Current fiat system has no nationality or borders. It is worldwide.
"For the most part, the "Movers and Shakers" have manipulated the whole western world into a "false Eden"."
History is no secret any more, "Movers and Shakers" are identified. Money changers will not simply give up fiat system. It will take something very radical like: total economic collapse or involvement and eventual defeat in a major war or both.
Problem is western world became addicted to fiat and it will take much to sober up.
Just watch all political mud thrown at Arnold's governor campaign in California.

Robert

(10/05/2003; 21:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109872)

Mr Gresham: Sustainability and survival in view of depleting fossil fuels

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/42586You write "Perhaps a small farming business will become the highest-margin profit center possible in such a constrained future?" Well, yes if you load up on ammunition and a supply of guns and other weapons of mass destuction in order to defend your farming business against masses of hungry fellow citizens. I recommend that you check out the above link. According to this article, our present food production requires 10 calories of fossil fuels for each calorie of food produced. In other words, we are basically eating oil. Once fossil fuels are gone, humanity can not survive on traditional agriculture unless the population size is reduced brutally. Within the next 50 years, at least one out of two people on earth must disappear in order for the remaining half to have any chance of survival. And that regardless whether you have gold or not. So much for gold being wealth.

Great Albino Bat

(10/05/2003; 22:34:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109873)

Robert - I beg to differ

In the grimest of scenarios - and yours is pretty hard to beat - it's better to have gold than not to have it. That goes for silver as well. When food becomes short, things will be as they have been for as long as records have been kept: those with gold or silver, are first in line for food.

NO, you can't eat gold or silver; but, be assured that as long as you have some, you won't go hungry.

The GAB

otish mountain

(10/05/2003; 22:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109874)

Mr. Gresham-Sustainability

Isn't what we are witnessing now the beginnings of the back side of the bell curve?

Overlay Hubbert's Peak with a model of Kondratieff's cycle.

Some say we are entering a Kondratieff winter.

I say we are entering the Kondratieff Ice Age.

Goldbug 1

(10/05/2003; 22:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109875)

Tate (109849) Transparency.

Tate asks "If everything in the USA is being manipulated and managed, what is left pure?"
Surely the USAGOLD Forum is! However in order to convince everyone of this will Sir MK please list the USAGOLD Staff and Associates Forum posting names. Then any skeptics can be completly convinced that there is no monkey business going on here. Only excellent coin and gold bullion trading business.

otish mountain

(10/05/2003; 22:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109876)

Mr. Gresham - Oil

This may have been the passage that got your attention it sure got mine!
Blake Blade Sept 30th #109634

That said, it has also been revealed that Saudi does not have the 13 million bbl/day production capacity as had been expected. We now find out that they now can only hit 9.2 million bbl/day and that Oman (even with the expertise of BP) are in serious sharp decline in production and they are pulling out all the stops. Now we learn that Iraqi reserves may have been grossly overblown as well, much less than the reported 125 billion bbl of oil. Not only is Iraqi oil infrastructure in disarray and terrorism a growing problem along with attacks on oil pipelines, but the Kirkuk Field oil has to be sent to Ceyhan, Turkey settling tanks due to contaminated oil before shipment. The OPEC quota production cuts may have much to do with declining production and the inability to ramp up production. China has also been on the prowl for oil imports lately along with the Japanese cutting deals with Iran for oil. Keep your eyes on this growing problem in coming months. Meanwhile watch for a fight on Capital Hill over the proposed "Energy Plan" as Republicans push to find a way to delay the inevitable and Democrats fight to delay any possible solutions for political gain in an election year. Should get "interesting".

Otish: Sir Black Blade, if you have anymore info on this matter please post.

Thank You

Aristotle

(10/05/2003; 23:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109877)

Robert, if you think *think* THINK about it...

You'll have to change your tune.

WEALTH is that which you possess above-and-beyond your immediate needs.

If you THINK about it, gold is the best wealth there is.

If you THINK about it, piles of food -- above and beyond your immediate needs -- might rot or otherwise go uneaten (maybe you die tomorrow from lack of insulin).

So what boat are we in? If you insist on insisting that Gold is not wealth, then I'll insist that you apply your same logic to deduce that NOTHING is wealth. If necessary, I can walk you through this proof, using your logic, item by item.

If you THINK about it, Gold IS wealth; and furthermore, it is wealth PAR EXCELLENCE.

Read this post a thousand times if necessary, and meditate on it, and again and again until enlightenment takes you by storm. (You can thank me then. )

Gold. Get you some meaningful WEALTH. --- Aristotle

Goldbug 1

(10/05/2003; 23:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109878)

Gold is certainly wealth but......

I have a friend who bought gold when it was US$750/oz. He still holds it and while he is happier with it than he was three years ago he still is a little less than impressed with gold as a store of value.
Surely even gold, great though it is, cannot be held forever.
Are all the posters on this great Forum going to buy and watch it rise to $400, $500 and maybe $600 and not even in the far recesses of their minds have an exit point planned when they will divest some of it?
Do many of you remember in the 80's a similar looming crisis. The Aden Sisters and Howard Ruff, to name only two that spring to mind, were forecasting gold at $2000 plus and dividends from gold mines would be greater than the then price of the shares. We were also being entreated to buy powdered milk and lentils etc and to move to a well armed shack in the backwoods to hide from marauding hoards.
None of this happened and IMHO it won't now.
I never expected the high inflation to fall but it has. Maybe all done with smoke and mirrors though.
Hey, its funplaying Devils Advocate.
Today in Australia there was only a light sell down in the gold mining sector and I was a buyer.
But what will happen in NY tonight?

Mr Gresham

(10/05/2003; 23:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109879)

Robert, otish mountain, GAB

Robert -- thanks for the link; I had read the summary at the original site, and now have the chance to read more of the report. The passage below especially stuck with me through the day:

"Unfortunately, if you remove fossil fuels from the equation, the daily diet will require 111 hours of endosomatic labor per capita; that is, the current
U.S. daily diet would require nearly three weeks of labor per capita to produce."

Now I don't think the food production ratio will get that bad, but it will grown significantly beyond the 20 minutes it now takes. I suspect then it will be a time to "speak softly (maintain a low profile) and carry a big stick", and I'm procrastinating getting the training I need to do the second part of that competently. I will not, until I do.

But your thoughts seem to me to jump illogically from a sense of panic. I brought that concept forward from the (Swedish? Danish?) researchers' sudden downgrading of oil reserve levels, and mentioned the sudden undercutting of food production that would imply in this country. But I don't take the leaps that you do.

1) Although I, too, wonder what all of the people now working in offices will do to earn their daily (more expensive) bread, and I, too, think the earth's human population will have to decline, I don't see the Mad Max scenario of rampaging hordes lying in wait for me to harvest my corn patch out back.

My father tells me about a couple of seasonal hoboes who came around each year during the Depression to help out on his family's small farm, and earn meals and a place to sleep. Maybe that's where I get my less-dramatic, more bucolic images from? I do know that the demographics -- and attitudes -- now are considerably different, so the uncertainties would tend to skew things in your direction, but I just don't know how far.

2) The leap to gold not "being wealth" doesn't parse. If humanity decides to hold a mass funeral, am I expected to jump on the pyre with the others? Your desperation leaves no prescription, either for the individual, or for the society (and these MAY be different). I have my thoughts, for each. I've had to cut loose, and go my own way, when I found that almost no one cared to listen or act upon solutions for either. By the time they come to some wisdom, by absorbing many hard knocks, where will I be for having gone with them? I've already learned from my own...

As I read you again, I ask "Is it expected that gold can stop the population correction from happening?" No -- gold is not Man's edge vis-a-vis Nature or for survival within the natural order. It is only a mechanism WITHIN society for him to hold his purchasing power from the labor of others.

I ask you: When you are 80 years old, in a be-nighted world, and not feeling quite up to "111 hours of endosomatic labor", do you want to be without purchasing power? And mightn't you then think you'd trade all your gold to be 20 again? Which you can't do, so better to have it.

Gold is stored labor value, and it will be exchangeable -- directly or via fiat paper -- for food, or other supplies, as it has been for millennia. If I could know the exact non-perishable supplies I would need for the rest of my life, well, maybe I could stock up now. But that's absurd, so that is why humanity bestowed upon gold the role of store of value long, long ago.

I think otish mountain (and GAB) are closer to the likely outcome. I think a whole lot of foolish fiat-maintained games are going to be folding up and leaving town, leaving those of us who've been made to feel foolish for hewing to "The Basics" all these years suddenly appearing wise beyond our accustomed stations.

Basic skills, and the ability to provide one's own food, will appreciate in value relative to the abstract, finance economy-based "skills" we have seen haul in the big bucks during the upswing in the Hubbert/Kondratieff Curves.

And for anyone whose back is going to be 60+ years old during all this revival of "stoop labor" in one's own backyard (if you've got a backyard), why, a stash of shiny stuff might just allow you to take a weekend off now and then, or maybe a night on the town with the missus. (smile)

Mr Gresham

(10/05/2003; 23:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 109880)

otish mountain

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,95751,00.html?My, my, we are busy writers tonight! (I didn't realize it took me over half an hour to do mine, as all below it appeared while I was punctuating myself silly...)

No, it's all kind of a blur from this weekend's reading but the study linked above has the reserves much lower than had been assumed up till now. Black Blade had another aspect of this, and I haven't tracked through all the last few days to see if he hit upon this one, and commented. I know he's given us an in-depth reading list on energy matters before, and I'm about to get the Deffayes book for my Hubbert intro.

"The Uppsala team said the amount of oil and gas left is the equivalent of around 3,500 billion barrels of oil compared with between 5,000 and 18,000 billion barrels estimated by the IPCC."

Goldbug1: There will certainly be a story to be told about how the Dollar was mustered up for another round as wealth vehicle ahead of gold. In fact, anything that people will work for (however they are persuaded to do so) becomes a vehicle of value. My view is that there was more give in the US economy and workforce in 1980 than goldbugs gave it credit for, after the oil shocks of the 70s. Add to that Paul Volcker, muscling the Saudis (?), and getting US workers from 35% to 65% two-worker households (working harder for the same lifestyle), and you get an extended lifespan for Uncle Buck. FOA and Another have a version not being told elsewhere, of backdoor gold deals, and I hope we'll get explained someday, too.

But I think they've gone to the well for the last time -- there are no more demographic goodies to pull out of the hat. In fact, quite the opposite. I could be surprised again, sure, but one of these Fridays, it really will be "Last Call -- Closing Time"...

Liberty Head

(10/06/2003; 00:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109881)

Robert #109872

http://www.rhodesiana.com/rsr/rsr2-002.html
Your points are all valid, but they don't tell the whole story.
Short supply/high demand scenarios are not new. Prices rise, more folks go into the production side because that's where the money is. A free market will always flow towards a balance point very rapidly and efficiently. Gold is the best money in a free market. Fiat currency only obstructs the free flow towards the balance point.

A fossil fuel shortage, although problematic, would not result in a world without energy. Ultimately we will have all the energy we need as long as the Sun keeps burning.

We may indeed kill off half our planet anyway just to prove Darwin's theory.
(see link or type Darwin and gold in to Google)

Best Wishes

Mr Gresham

(10/06/2003; 00:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109882)

...and, Robert, sorry,

I think I could have chosen words better -- you take a mild barrage when you cross the grain here, as anywhere -- but I've been accused of "panic" too, by those who I knew were not looking at the same data with the same experience as I. They just didn't like the conclusions I was coming up with. So they shoot the messenger. The word "panic" gets used to diminish you, usually.

I'm sure if I had simmered a little longer in my reply, I could have come up with better terminology to reply to you, but I think number one influence in me was wanting to take my first potshot at that old "You can't eat gold" idiocy. Which I realize is not what you were talking about. Right?

Hmmmm, spending my evening posting... Must be trying to avoid some work. ;) If I really want to get sidetracked, I'll find myself trying to explain Hubbert to my kid, who will have to live with most of that future, way more than I will. Get her trying to think of some solar energy businesses or something, to get her through the earning side of life...she's very creative, she'll be designing small solar vehicles by afternoon ;)

Aristotle

(10/06/2003; 00:42:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109883)

...that old "You can't eat Gold" idiocy...

Sir Gresham,

In one definitive and dismissive breath they'll tell you that you can't eat Gold, but then they walk away without telling us which wine will help us wash down our dollars.

Whaaawww!

Gold. Less filling, tastes great. --- Aristotle

Mr Gresham

(10/06/2003; 01:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109884)

Ari, energy

http://www.dieoff.com/synopsis.htmAri: When I sell my first doubloon, may I treat you to a pint o' grog and a hearty repast? It'd probably be a first for either of us, and I'd want you to savor all the sweetness of doing "what can never be done."

(Next, we'll tackle the "impossibility" of buying needful things with "large" gold coins, "because no one can give you change for a Krugerrand..." Sheesh...)

Here's the original synopsis page I remembered from the dieoff site way back when...lots about the "energy profit" from each form of energy, and why sweet crude was such a uniquely "profitable" case, a temporary blip that allowed human population to also blip for just awhile.

"Economists everywhere are wrong: perpetual economic motion is impossible! Imagine having an automobile with a ten-gallon tank, but the nearest gas station is eleven gallons away. You cannot fill your tank with a trip to the gas station because the trip burns more gas than you can carry -- it's impossible for you to cover your overhead (the size of your bankroll and the price of the gas are irrelevant). You might as well plant flowers in your auto because you are "out of gas" -- forever. It's the same with the American economy: if we must spend more-than-one unit of energy to produce enough goods and services to buy one unit of energy, it will be impossible for us to cover our overhead. At that point, America's economic machine is "out of gas" -- forever. "

Belgian

(10/06/2003; 01:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 109885)

@ spotlight msg #109860

Let me repeat Ari: YOU HIT IT RIGHT ON THE NAIL, Sir !!!
Your title already says it all : Trillions for Billions !!!
This is about the "AVAILABILITY" of Physical Gold and the "DEBAUCHE" of printed matter + screen-figures ! The paper gold market versus the Physical Gold Market. Unfree paper gold versus Free Physical Gold !!!

IT REMAINS MORE IMPOSSIBLE TO GO FOR THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS TIME GOES BY ! Those Trillions cannot ...NOT even start the tiniest of Gold chase/rush...WITHOUT HAVING THE POG EXPLODED into the tens of thousands !!!

YES...TRILLIONS (paper) FOR ONLY BILLIONS (gold) !!! I wished that ALL Goldbugs would realize this. But they don't and remain gold paper addicted. Simply because they want to reproduce more of that same paper.

Those Giants that know that the Trillions of buying units (numeraires) multiply much faster than the available Physical Gold, do face this dilemma : Once I dare to start accumulating Physical Gold in exchange for my growing stashes of buying units...NOT A NANOGRAM OF PHYSICAL WILL BE AVAILABLE ANYMORE AT ANY PRICE !!! Because any wild goldrush would kill the existing monetary system at once and create a Babylonic chaos and economic activity would almost stop.

Nobody wishes this to happen and that's why the existing monetary dollar-systems needs a reasonable * exit plan * !

In the mean time, as much Gold as possible is accumulated without rocking the monetary boat, making it sinking faster than necessary. When we head for the exit, it doesn't matter how much Gold you have because the POG will be revaluated as to correct for so many decades of confetti depreciations that aren't been reflected in today's valuations of the *real* valuables.

A/FOA is about the possible/probable monetary "exit plan".
The absolute majority of the general public will start buying Physical Gold as soon as they face the "fait accompli" and have to pay an arm or a leg for it (the Gold).
That's WHY there must always be Physical Gold available for the masses (stubborn contrarians) as to not risk a Gold stampede by those masses, reacting emotionally without any restraint.

We only get Gold Accumulation signals from countries that are percepted as...third world countries (China, Russia, ME, India). The economical leading countries (and close fidel allies) must be percepted as Gold sellers as to provide enough Physical Gold available and prevent any Gold reflexes !

GLOBAL GOLD PERCEPTIONS ARE UNDER MANAGEMENT !!! Cfr. the tonnes of financial advise/guidance that is daily offered to many, GRATIS !!! The all embracing BIG BROTHER fenomenon !!!

Compare the monetary-system (transition) exit with the ease of jumping into Iraq
and how difficult (complicated) any possible orderly exit will be.
Idem dito for 50 years of Israeli/Palestine conflict.

Bringing Gold back into the monetary system is a very, VERY delicate matter !!!

Correct understanding of the right Big Picture needs a lot of efforts but has always been Very rewarding.
That's what we try to achieve overhere, all together.

Aristotle

(10/06/2003; 01:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109886)

Not exactly a eulogy, but it's still a funeral for the dollar (as a RESERVE asset)

news snip:
= = = =
Duisenberg told the Financial Time's sister Spanish publication Expansion that while a fall in the dollar was "unavoidable," he "prayed" that it would be gradual.

"We hope and pray that this adjustment, which is unavoidable, will be slow and gradual. We will do everything in our power to make it slow and gradual. Until now, the adjustment is only against the euro," he said, according to the FT.
= = = =

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

PS. These days the "past masters" must REALLY be feeling the pain of a system that has indeed outlived its usefulness -- to them! (meaning, it's no longer delivering benefits to the old masters.) George Bush is AGAIN talking publically about this new-fangled concept w/r/t monetary affairs called "FAIRNESS." Twice in one sentence, even!

GWB says, "fair trade means currency policies are fair."

tic toc tic toc tic toc...

DummyANI

(10/06/2003; 01:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109887)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Belgian

(10/06/2003; 02:32:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109888)

@spotlight : About the increasing * UN-AVAILABILITY * of Physical Gold

1/ CBs with excess gold reserves reshuffle some to CBs with not enough gold reserves !
2/ 3,000 Tonnes of undergound gold already sold forward !
3/ China AND Russia stepping up their goldmining on their own soil !
4/ Efforts to paperize Indian gold trade/market !
5/ ETF (Equity Gold Fund) paper gold as to canalize demand !
6/ The WAG !
7/ No big numismatic Gold issueing.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MONETARY GOLD AT THESE PRICES !!!

The fine art of Gold Management is to obtain the exact opposite "perception" that there is a gold glut !!! And I stick to this theory, not because I happen to accumulate Gold, but because I'm in the illusion that I start to "understand" what is going on.

The present (and '04) currency floating will remain constrained (disciplined-orderly) for as long as the illusion of an economic recovery remains in place. Beware, if and when this might NOT materialize !!!

Aristotle

(10/06/2003; 02:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109889)

Mr G'

I'll be there!

Grog... they can water down our rum, but damn them for watering/papering down our Gold! But hey! When you see it FOR WHAT IT IS, this is a (temporary) system (of cheap Gold) that we'll gladly let run its course while it delivers (UN*fair*ly) in OUR favor; a windfall for the astute. Let all others come around when they may!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Gandalf the White

(10/06/2003; 02:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109890)

EASY SPOT ! Slowly and Easily !

Just cleared $373.0 !
Slowly and EASILY !
<;-)

Belgian

(10/06/2003; 03:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109891)

From the financial fraternity....

Another analyst (humm) appears on the screen with the message that we, stupid goldbugs, can and must expect a POG above the 400$. This "German" analyst (German puts more euro weight for a change) explains WHY a POG of 400$ plus is justified and surely to be expected, and then adds that the goldbug's POG projections of 600$-800$ plus, are nonsense...BUT THIS CHAP IS NOT SAYING WHY a higher POG isn't possible !!! This daily management of perceptions and the guiding too this or that target is sickening.

In the comments about the (rising) POO, the oil-flow management by OPEC (Saudi swing producer) doesn't seem to be (politically) un-correct...
The attitudes towards Gold must be deceptive ones !!! The "GUIDANCE" on the evolving POG is of such a (an intelligent) nature that it is part of the circumstancial evidence for the coming Big changes in the Gold market.
Think deep about this when trying to evaluate the present POG-level in the whole context !!!

Belgian

(10/06/2003; 04:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109892)

Growth and Stability....

If growth in Euroland is not going to pick up soon, the *stability* in the pact might come under more severe strain, internally and from outside !
The dollar wishes the euro to re-connect to growing "deficits" (become like the dollar-system) as to boost growth. This is going to affect the $-� exchange rate with a probability that this exch. rate business is going to be catapulted into another kind of currency management (more drastic measures)(POG) !?

The more the global economy becomes unstable-growthless, the fiercer the battle will become on the floating fields.
I'm ready...

Clink!

(10/06/2003; 06:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 109893)

@ Druid

Just so we are ready for the need, 1000 trillion is a quadrillion. And now a small guessing game - when will we first hear that term used on TV on anything other than the Science Channel talking about space !

C!

Waverider

(10/06/2003; 09:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109894)

Currency wars likely to resume as early as this week

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/premiumstory/0,4574,95827,00.html?"CURRENCY wars could erupt again as early as this week, some dealers say, dismissing the relief for the beleaguered US dollar from news of better than expected US employment growth as only temporary. Indeed, some economists suggest that the dollar's recent fall against the yen and other Asian currencies could accelerate rapidly as US President George Bush and other administration officials step up their calls for greater flexibility in exchange rates. Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets last week (using the US Federal Reserve as its agent on occasions) to stem the yen's rise...But few analysts believe it likely that Japan can hold even the 110 line for long - and that the market will now push for a 105 yen/dollar rate."

Waverider: The mainstream media finally catches on to what Black Blade has been saying for quite some time now.

Gandalf the White

(10/06/2003; 09:54:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109895)

WOWSERS --- LOOK at the COMEX volume TODAY !!!

Dec 03 Contract COMEX 10/6/03 at 11:18 NY time
Open $372.0 HIGH $373.9 low $370.5 Last 373.7
Change from Fri Settlement +$3.7 VOLUME = 111,988
BUT most importantly -- THEY have not yet posted the
OPEN INTEREST data from Friday's MANIPULATION !
I am watching !
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/06/2003; 10:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109896)

The only way you can beat this BULLION offer... is with a stick!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Save your "strength" -- call us today!

slingshot

(10/06/2003; 10:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109897)

All Right!

Spent a weekend in the woods that was fantastic and come back to POG and POS on a pullback. Had to take alittle off the table.

@ Gandalf. Hang on to that crystal ball. I do not worry about the swings in POG. Can Gold go to $350? I think it can. We have seen ,$2.00-$5.00 swing. Then $5 to $10. Are we soon to see, $10- $15.

Bring it on!

Great Posts Everyone.
Slingshot---------------------<>

TownCrier

(10/06/2003; 10:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109898)

Because the "G1" system has run into a wall...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031006/economy_eu_kochweser_1.htmlHEADLINE: EU,US ought to forge G2 alliance on FX - Koch-Weser

BERLIN, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The European Union and United States should forge an informal 'G2' alliance on monetary policy and trade that could also be a basis for currency cooperation, German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said on Monday.

"There are several areas where the G2 could begin operating promptly. One is competition policy... Another lies in the domain of monetary policy, where the European Central Bank manages the world's second key currency with even more autonomy than the Federal Reserve."

...Coordination on macro economic policy has stirred foreign exchange markets into a fury of speculation that the big economic powers want to smooth the depreciation of the dollar by allowing the yen and Chinese yuan to rise.

------(see url for article)-------

Like autumn itself, the signs of imminent change are in the air. Heck, as if symbolic of that exact thought, the dollar itself is changing color... have you seen any of the new $20 bills that hit the streets last week? Summer's green is now a thing of the past.

R.

Pizz

(10/06/2003; 10:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109899)

Very Few Rabbits Left. . . .

to pull out of the proverbial hat. So the PTB spend the bulk of their time trying to keep the sheeple penned in. Won't last.

Auto industry is battening down the hatches so to speak. Layoffs and production cuts coming. Incentives and 0 percent have run their course. No pricing power at the dealership level. In fact, if your car is less than 5 years old, it has depreciated about 25% in the last six months (10% is normal).

If you take the time to look, you may see more individuals trying to sell their cars rather than trade them in, since retail is a better price than trade in, assuming you can find someone with the money to buy it. Problem is that we've been financing up to 115% of RETAIL for years, so loan values exceed market by quite a bit, and now the banks are tightening up on the middle class buyer, so sales are going to be soft (at best) for a few years. There is light at the end of a 3-4 year tunnel though, cause the new cars sold over the past couple years had rebates and 0%, so after three years or so of makeing payments, people will have equity in their vehicles agian (we hope). . .we just have to survive the next three years. . .not as easy as many think.

I fully expect the housing market to slow rather dramatically over the next year. Had my house on the market in Seattle area for two months and had one offer. . took it and ran like heck. . . .but I fully expect the brokers to put together something like the auto industry has done for years. . .trade in one house for another and roll negative equity over into new loans. . .bout all they will be able to do as rates rise. . . cash prices may drop quite a bit, but I expect volume to drop off as repo's go up. If you have to sell and owe more than it's worth, it'll repo without a lot of cash from the seller, if you don't have to sell, prices will still be high based upon loan and tax value, but with no bids. . .

Long term, gold has no where to go but up. I am amazed at the short term thinkers that panic at 5 and 10 per cent corrections when the printing presses are running full time, the dollar about to drop down an elevator shaft (with government approval), and we are going to have a major recovery without auto's, housing, and construction running full steam. . . .right.

Went into Canada over the weekend to open a Canadian account for a little diversification and currency speculation (sinceI still need fiat to operate). Canadian merchants still LOVE the US buck, and years of depreciation against the dollar still fresh in their minds, but when I talked the merits of dollar demise and gold's future, at least they listen. We're just a bit too uneducated (brainwashed is probably a better term) and pompous to suit me. . .oh well, stagflation is here, and as long as our PM's are HANDY, we'll do just find. . . .

Pizz

steady

(10/06/2003; 11:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109900)

honesty

if wall st was honest its name would be false street ! or manipulation avenue, or mangaged lane, or dishonset road!

Gandalf the White

(10/06/2003; 11:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109901)

Finally -- the OPEN INTEREST data from Friday's COMEX run on the Stop loss orders!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GC10/4/03 Dec 03 Open Interest = 201,214
10/5/03 Dec 03 Open Interest = 196,869
DIFFERENCE = 4,345 !!
See how well the CABAL did in Starting the stampeed of Long Stop Loss activity and then buying back their initial shorts and making a BIG PROFIT !
NOW they have lots more US$ in the Bank and can continue holding down the POG again !
WITH PHYSICAL gold, you need not have a STOP LOSS order to save youself a margin call, as you OWN the whole piece of YELLOW !
===
Slowly and easily, SPOT --- UP!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/06/2003; 11:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109902)

Good to hear from you Sir Pizz !!

Congratulations on the Seattle area Real Estate transaction.
Thanks for the UPDATE on autos, and "Be not a STRANGER" to the Forum -- IF you have the time between trying to think of new ways to squeeze a buck out of a new auto sale.
<;-)

steady

(10/06/2003; 11:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109903)

refining ecoism

see unlike mercantilism where the state was after everincreasing hordes of gold and silver ecoism is where individuals within a state are after ever increasing hordes of gold and silver to reestablish a fair honest money regim on planet earth.
unlike nationalism it isnt the desire to become part of a nation of like individuals , matter of fact most proponets of ecoisn no longer look to the state for economic decision assistance as its figures are to frequently redefined up or down ( look to usa for the lead in changing its numbers.) rather they look to other members of the ecoism movement to assist them in determing the best stoarge spot for there wealth.

ecoism the first new ism of the 21st centuary!

Rimh

(10/06/2003; 12:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109904)

Interseting to note....

While many eyes were on gold this morning, and everyone here is pleased to see signs of a recovery, did anyone (besides the hardcore silverbugs) notice the early, somewhat heavy trashing of silver? Perhaps they are trying to use it as non-confirmation of gold's reverse to the upside?

And what of the US dollar this morning? I have been having trouble getting the INO quotes this morning. When I did get a quote just recently, I noticed the USD took it's own big hit down to 92.33. Is this below the critical resistance level? Seems like there might be a battle of epic proportions happening on many fronts this morning...

Get your real gold and silver now while you still can!

steady

(10/06/2003; 12:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109905)

further notes on ecoisms progression

ecoism is where individuals decide to protect themselvs from govt debasement of money, opps i mean fiat script, and move towards desiring to see business meetings where no shades are drawn (n.young) sure ecoism is in its incubation stage trying to develope an identity that will be recognized by every race/nationality, and economist whether thye be austrian or keynsian. ecoism just wants respect but at the moment isnt recieving any so is offering none in exchange.
ecoism will grow up , ecoism will eveolve and finally one day ecism will bew spoen of on cnbc where it wont be able to explain the phenominon but will give it great reviews. (thanks neil)
ecosim has decided to use a marketing tool a slogan to hang its hat on for now untill it beomes more widely recognized
that slogan is
honest money.
who can argue with honesty.
and we all know what money is so ecoism promotes honest money as its top priority. those who favor ecoism also favor honest moeny as they are one in the same.
how do u explain soething that is happening before your eyes but can not necesarily defined as its morphing as we read this? you cant front run it for it may go on a differnt tangetn yet you cant wait for it to hapen as then u just become another knee jerck reactioany type.
ah the joy of being on ehe cusp of the golden wave hanging ten , getting tube and having hte ride of the lifetime on this wonderful planet!

TownCrier

(10/06/2003; 13:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109906)

Rhona O'Connell writes:

http://www.gold.org/"We commented at the end of last week that some gold dealers were looking for a washout to clear away some speculative positions and on Friday in New York that is exactly what they got.

"After quiet sessions in Asia and London on Friday, with the majority of financial markets waiting for the non-farm payroll figures, gold initially firmed in New York, moving up to $386/ounce.

"For a while after the employment figures came out, gold held steady above the $382/ounce level. Market participants had commented the previous day, however, that sell-stops were building below $382/ounce and once the euro started a rapid depreciation, so gold fund liquidation took the price through $382 and a rapid decline ensued as speculators bailed out, stale bulls liquidated, some short selling developed and more stops were hit. The low for the day was around the $367/ounce mark before some bargain hunting brought the price up to close off the lows.

"The drop in price has been met by healthy physical buying from Asia and the Indian sub-continent and dealers in Asia this morning were confident that support would build around $370/ounce.

"Indian dealers are talking in terms of a trebling in imports this week as a result of the price fall -- although it should be pointed out that they had been remarkably sluggish recently, especially given that the wedding season has started, and also that the price volatility will have to die away before buyers return in force.

"Traders in Mumbai, however, are expecting imports to increase towards 400kg per day this week after 100kg per day of late."

------

Bottom line: If you don't get it, others will. Get physical while metal can yet be found and had, clearing at its derivative price.

R.

(10/06/2003; 13:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109907)

Serious Question....

What would be the repercussions if California were to go the way of Argentina?

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/06/2003; 13:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109908)

@MK - Serious Question

Would that be allowed? After all, we're only talking 8 or 9 billion are we not? Surely, the lender/buyer of last resort would step in and bail them out. If 87 billion can be raised for the "re-construction" of Iraq, then..............

tyro

(10/06/2003; 13:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109909)

Charging Rent

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={A4BC4C95-0D01-4BA1-B004-3FD57A4B0B1E}&siteid=mktwSnip: "SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- In another death knell for the form of payment known as a check, an increasing number of Americans can now pay their rent by credit card.
More than 1,000 properties consisting of about 350,000 rental units nationwide now accept Visa for rent payments, up 43 percent from a year ago, the credit card association reported."

tyro: As if consumers need another avenue to go further into debt!

CoBra(too)

(10/06/2003; 13:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109910)

Wim Duisenberg's Concerns

are apparently that a rapid devaluation of the US dollar would upset the applecart, huh, the global monetary system.
So he would wish for a gradual depreciation and also that East Asia would share in the burden more evenly. Competitive devaluations would only speed the demise.

At his press conference in Lisbon on Oct. 2nd. he gave the following response, which I find extremely telling:

Duisenberg: "I am as confident as I was four weeks ago about the resumption of economic growth, not more, not less. The United States has a big problem of basically twin deficits, a close to 5% current account deficit, a close to 5% fiscal deficit, that you can afford for one year, two years or three years, but at some point there has to be an adjustment. We hope that the bulk of that adjustment will come through a pick-up of growth in the United States, and for the rest it is a problem for them and for us and for the rest of the world. We do hope � that is what I said in my statement earlier � that the burden of adjustment which has to come will be spread more evenly over the entire world than has been the case up until now".

cb2 - Seems the ECB and all other CB's are adjusting to the fact that the dollar will have to substantially depreciate further. But please let it be orderly and don't push the issue too rapidly. The other side of the coin may also mean a gradual appreciation of the POG and with it the �.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/06/2003; 16:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109911)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The DMR is a little late late today. There was little to discuss as it was a slow day with the lack of significant econonic data to refer too other than a weaker U.S. dollar in the continuing "currency war". There was some spirited discussion among my fellow geologosts anout gold and energy markets as well.

That said, Remember that tommorow is the beginning of "Confession Season" for corporate earnings. It may be a slow week due to lackluster data releases except Thursday's unemployment data and Friday's GDP data for August and September revsions. Also as I climbed into the "high country" I quickly realized that it would turn out a bit more technical than I had expected so my minor frost-bittem fingers may not have convincingly conveyed my DMR message acturately and clearly as I had wished. But then what "true geologist" could pass up such an opportunity to "look at rocks" and gelogical structures ;-)

Hopefuly tomorrow will be a day of reflection on the economy and precious metals. In the meantime, look at the lower precious metals as a "gift" courtesy of clueless speculators/banks/funds - that will nat last long as physical interest grows with the approach of the Diwali (Festival of Lights) and marriage seaon in the Indian subcontinent (along with a nearly perfect monsoon season, and western jewelers restocking for the traditional gift giving season.

- Jon H. Warner -

Rimh

(10/06/2003; 16:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109912)

Re: MK's Serious Question

Is the question: Will the Kalifornians simply default on their debt and the politicians refuse to raise taxes/change policy to get their financial books on a firmer footing (followed by rioting in the streets, etc. etc....) or am I missing the point?

This could be a real test as to how resilient/fragile the US economy really is in the largest(?) of the regional financial blocks. Will it represent a proxy for the value of a share of USA Corp.? With the media circus surrounding this vote tomorrow, the world will be watching to see which way the voters of Kalifornia Inc. want to go.

Somehow I doubt any real change in our thinking (collectively) will change much until we hit bottom - which is a long way from here. In the mean time, those of us who see it coming can/must prepare as best we can and hope that the worst case scenario is not our fate.

Waverider

(10/06/2003; 16:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109913)

Black Blade

Thanks for today's DMR and TAKE CARE of those frost-bittem fingers of yours!! Gata run....

glennh10

(10/06/2003; 17:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109914)

The Money

People don't think too much about THE money. They do think about money. They think about how nice it would be to have more; they think about taxes, and how to pay less; they think about the future equity in their home, and what it'll buy them, and how it's (hopefully) gonna make their retired life comfortable; and their kids rich; they think the same about their IRA, their 401K, or whatever other retirement/pension account they've recently put their faith back into. As far as THE money, however, they don't bother about it, at all.

Nothing's happened (yet) to make them aware. To them, it's the govt's concern, to manage the money. If it goes to "pot", or weakens, they understand their role to be to vote in somebody else who promises to "turn it around". To them, the gov't goes with the money like the Maytag repairman is to their washing machine. The repair man fixes it; the government manages it; To the people, if the money ends up with a problem, it means the person in charge was incompetent, or, ala Enron, crooked. They don't see beyond the gov't/money paradigm (yet).

When the situation deteriorates to the point where the people do find that they must involve themselves in the money; when they are driven to this point; when they find that the "problem" with the money is really quite simple and basic, as opposed to Ph.D.-level complex (justifying a labyrinth of central banks, IMF, ESF, World Bank, etc.).
When they get a grip on how they've been betrayed, look out. Yes, BETRAYED. Swindled. And worse, "sucked in".

The question in my mind is, how close must we get to TSHTF before a real, popular discussion of THE MONEY does ensue? How close to the fire?

Black Blade

(10/06/2003; 17:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109915)

Waverider

Thanks, my swollen fingers have made typing a bit clumsy even though neoprene gloves helped I have had to make numerous corrections to misspellings and grammer. I am hitting two keys at once. I am told that I should see the swelling reduce in the next couple of days but thankfully no loss of any appendages are expected. I don't know how I get talked into these things but we did summit well above the snow line. I had though that the late summer would have been an excellent opportunity but alas the excrusion did take two days instead of the one and a half days. But then this isn't the first time either and probably not the last. With a new martial arts class to start next Monday I will nurse myself back to health. Meanwhile a good extrenous workout should be beneficial and get the blood flowing. Now if only I found some gold in the process. ;-)

Cheers!

Black Blade

GoldNewbie

(10/06/2003; 18:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 109916)

USAGOLD company info

I am considering starting to invest in physical gold and just found the USAGOLD site.

Everything looks attractive and reasonable, but I'd like some independent info on the company before buying from them.

Can anybody share the opinion and/or point me to some reputable unbiased sources? Any input would be highly appreciated.

Thanks,

GoldNewbie

R Powell

(10/06/2003; 18:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109917)

Silver coin

A brandy new shinny silver Eagle coin was delivered to me by the U.S.Postal authorities today. Thank you, thank you, thank you.....

B.B. Got gloves? My old fingers turn white, puffy and lose feeling anywhere below about 40 degrees. They've been like that ever since I let them get frost bitten in my youth. Take care of yourself!

R Powell

(10/06/2003; 18:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109918)

Gold Newbie

I have bought silver from "the company". I got exactly what I bargined for in rapid order. If you care to ask CPM (the company) for my address, I'll be glad to talk to you by mail, phone or e-mail. I can't post my e-mail on the forum (against the rules of the house) but CPM has it and my permission to give it to you.

The company also sells silver! You get more weight for your buck with silver.
Rich

silvercollector

(10/06/2003; 18:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 109919)

Sickening

Refering to my post #109846 lamenting about the blatant manipulation of the gold market I see the USD has taken its 1 cent dive today to trade back at Friday's levels. (presently 92.29; we still wait for it to breakdown thru 91.9)

I am pleasantly surprised to see that James Turk has jumped all over Friday's SUPER-SCAM. See http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1708

Thanks ge for your note.

John Ing was on the tube half an hour ago, he is all over $510 this year. I only caught bits and pieces. Apparently Bush has beat Johnson (war deficits) and now some important debt ratio is at 20.5% (Johnson's record was 19.5%). Hopefully someone can elaborate on this number. TIA. Ing also mentioned that the Muslim world has stopped financing the US debt machine, it is only a matter of time before Asia stopps as well.

Bush was on the tube an hour ago suggesting that Israel has a 'right to defend herself'. Brillant.

Why doesn't Bush and his cronies help the planet instead of wasting taxpayer money ambushing gold?

TownCrier

(10/06/2003; 18:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 109920)

A little background and company info that may help

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutmore.htmlAlthough this forum has been active for only five years, the USAGOLD/Centennial brokerage has been serving gold investors since 1973. I don't know what more meaningful insight I can offer on the matter; perhaps that not only do I rattle around like a sort of ghostly janitor within these cyber walls, I'm a satisfied customer, too!

R.

Mr Gresham

(10/06/2003; 18:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109921)

glennh10, Pizz

Welcome home, Pizz!

glenn: Fine explication of the attitudes out there. Passive and childlike trust, while remaining cynical of those who are tasked to "rescue" them. Ultimate irresponsibility. As long as there's someone else to blame, who cares if your kids are hungry?

Then, on the opposite corner, the mondo doomers who wail "if it gets this bad, you might as well curl up and die. No way to save yourself." Sheesh!

Cavan Man

(10/06/2003; 18:48:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109922)

March of Folly Chronicles

Shades of Nixon/KissingerBush Tightens Control Over Iraq Policy
NSC Adviser Rice Will Coordinate Support for Reconstruction
By Mike Allen and Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 6, 2003; 2:05 PM

President Bush asserted more direct White House control over the Pentagon-run reconstruction of Iraq today, announcing that he has put national security adviser Condoleezza Rice in charge of a new authority designed to alleviate mounting criticism of the administration's postwar progress.

Buy physical gold and prepare for the NEW monetary paradigm.

Cavan Man

(10/06/2003; 18:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109923)

"Pentagon run-reconstruction"

.....or did the writer intend, "occupation"?

Cometose

(10/06/2003; 18:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 109924)

Cavan Man / Reconstruction

Did President BUSH mention which accounting firm the GOV"T was going to enlist to watch over TAXPAYER MONEY>>>>>?????
while they rebuild IRAQ....

did he mention any contractors that might be used in the rebuilding .......did the name Carlisle GROUP come up ???

Dollar Bill

(10/06/2003; 19:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 109925)

*>*............+

Sir Robert, Sometimes our sources dont deserve the trust we put in them. I have a number of former sources of teaching that I now dismiss as immature. I would add the link you posted to that list. Here is a paragraph to illustrate the college level writing and research data. Unverified research by the way.

"At present, nearly 40% of all land-based photosynthetic capability has been appropriated by human beings.
(I dont believe that 40% figure, from where?)
2 In the United States we divert more than half
of the energy captured by photosynthesis.
(Who measured that?)
3 We have taken over all the prime real estate on this planet.
The rest of nature is forced to make due with what is left. Plainly, this is one of the major factors in species
extinctions and in ecosystem stress." (I think we can safely ignore the assesments made by this guy.)

Chris Powell

(10/06/2003; 19:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109926)

Friday's gold rout on Comex didn't shake many people out after all

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1710Despite Friday's seeming rout of the gold price, there
wasn't much decline in open interest in gold on the
Comex.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

GoldNewbie

(10/06/2003; 19:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109927)

Best gold buy

What product (bars or coins and which ones) would the esteemed forum community recommend as the best gold buy right now?

Thanks in advance,

GoldNewbie

TownCrier

(10/06/2003; 19:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109928)

A suggestion for all such "GoldNewbies" out there

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.htmlThere is a toll free number at the bottom of the page which you can call during Denver business hours (8:00am - 6:00pm Mountain Time) for a friendly consultation on a diversification strategy tailored to your personal needs and goals.

R.

Chris Powell

(10/06/2003; 19:39:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109929)

Traders are getting wise to the gold price suppression scheme

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1711South African gold analyst Victor Hugo says traders
are increasingly convinced that central banks are
surreptitiously intervening against gold to protect the
U.S. dollar and treasury bonds:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(10/06/2003; 19:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109930)

Gold Newbie

Gold is gold. Persoanlly I prefer 24K ,y self - a purist I suppose - just love that glowing gold color. But I have Maple Leafs, Aussie Nuggets, and J&M wafers as well as some collectables. Some prefer to be "patriotic" and go for Eagles. But it's personal preference I guess. Even the duller colored Krugerands (but nicely designed) are good. You can get em' all here at the castle. Just for laughs call George Cooper to talk it over or if a small order drive Jonathon a little batty with some gold discussions. ;-) Seriously though, they can help you out no matter what you decide. Of course you can make your own decision on bullion and pre-1933's at the small order desk. Even Mike is a good listener and willing to bring you along and up to speed on your decision. George can help you with an IRA rollover (even a partial IRA rollover I am sure). Check out the links at the top of this page or the home page. Anyway, I got to go and get some excercise and painfully reactivate the blood flow in these fingers. Cheers!

-Black Blade

Waverider

(10/06/2003; 19:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109931)

Sir GoldNewbie

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlAlso consider ordering Sir MK's book titled: "The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership". You shall find ordering information at the above link. I ordered two - one for myself and one to lend out to friends who show interest when I talk about Gold. Welcome and Cheers,
Waverider

(10/06/2003; 20:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109932)

Centennial Experience

Gold Newbie,

I have not posted on this forum in over 2 years. Your plea for info regarding our host has pulled me out of lurkdom. I have personally spoken with Michael, George, and Marie to secure my purchases of the yellow metal in various forms over the past two years. I treasure them, not only as my financial advisors, but also, my link to the world economics and finance. Gold and silver, are generally viewed in worldly terms. Currency, oil, and gold seem to be what makes the world economy move on a day to day basis.

I have been very happy with the advice received from CPM regarding the types and percentage of the yellow and silvery metal that I have purchased for my physical and retirement portfolio. I am invested in this medium at a much higher percentage than most, I believe, and have been doing so for over 8 years. I have bullion coins, pre-33s and Liberty/St.Gaudiens as well as silver 100 oz bars and junk silver coins. I also, have done very well in the last couple of years with a small percentage of my portfolio in gold and silver mining shares. But get your physical first! After the beating most of us took through the 1995-2001 timeframe, it feels good to be at the front of the pack.

Back to my friends at CPM, they have delivered the yellow products in a safe, and timely matter at very competitive prices. I have purchased from other national as well as local dealers and CPM has always provided me with a lower price on the same goods.

I am sure you will hear similar comments from the other esteemed forum members.

You are starting out at the right place, at the right time. Happy wealth preservation to you!!

To the rest of the forum posters....I have always checked in on a daily basis to see what was at the forefront of the gold and world economy, knowing that the quality of information making it to this forum was the best on the net. I thank you for taking the time to grace this bulletin board with your wisdom, research, and knowledge. It has helped me keep the faith in our precious metals. I am not sure how much I will be able to continue to post going foward...It is laborious to type when you can't. I just wanted Newbie to know what a terrific service CPM provides.

GD

Druid

(10/06/2003; 20:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 109933)

Clink! (10/6/03; 06:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 109893)

"Just so we are ready for the need, 1000 trillion is a quadrillion. And now a small guessing game - when will we first hear that term used on TV on anything other than the Science Channel talking about space !"

Druid: Clink! thanks for the reply. It doesn't seem so long ago that I was in class trying to wrap my mind around the unit measurement of a "trillion." Man! these gents have been busy. It's a lot of work punching those numbers in. "Quadrillion" has a nice ring to it.

Remarx

(10/06/2003; 21:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 109934)

@GoldNewbie

I started a few months ago with a purchase of Gold Eagles because I thought, as an American, they would be the safest bet. Since then I have proceeded on to both Gold and Silver Maple Leafs (I like the idea of .9999 purity in the gold Maples). I haven't ventured into collectibles yet, and may never get there, although it is highly recommended by nearly all goldbugs as potentially confiscation proof in the future.

CPM is a great place to work with! They are pleasant and _trustworthy_. I highly recommend reading the "ABCs of Gold Investing", by Michael Kosares (from CPM). It can be read in an evening or two and provides a good broad, understandable background and rationale for newbies.

If you would like some more background reading regarding your decision to buy physical precious metals, here are a couple of ideas from the center-left perspective:

- For an eye-opening, relatively short primer on the current state of the dollar and the US deficit, check out billmon's white paper "The Economic Limits of Empire" at http://billmon.org/archives/000233.html. He has a number of other well-written blog entries on the economy; enter the word "economy" in the search window to see a list.

- When you have lots of spare time, I would also recommend "Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country" by William Greider. It gives you a thorough understanding of how money is managed and mismanaged by the Fed, irrespective of the other 3 official government branches, and how tenuous money value is.

Hope this was what you were looking for. It is the kind of stuff I have been checking out as a newbie over the past few months.

Good luck!

steady

(10/06/2003; 21:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 109935)

how come comex cant reopen to regular hours?

how come the media can report gold at 7 year high, or gold losing 1over 11 bucks in one day but they can not report on comex still not being back at normal operating hours? or even have one member of reutewrs/ bussiness wire/ finamcial times ,newsmeek, the dishonest street journal or any other countries media. Is gold such a relic that present day querries can be ignored planet wide?

Druid

(10/06/2003; 21:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109936)

glennh10 (10/6/03; 17:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109914)

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/emorn.htm"People don't think too much about THE money. They do think about money. They think about how nice it would be to have more; they think about taxes, and how to pay less; they think about the future equity in their home, and what it'll buy them, and how it's (hopefully) gonna make their retired life comfortable; and their kids rich; they think the same about their IRA, their 401K, or whatever other retirement/pension account they've recently put their faith back into. As far as THE money, however, they don't bother about it, at all.

Nothing's happened (yet) to make them aware. To them, it's the govt's concern, to manage the money. If it goes to "pot", or weakens, they understand their role to be to vote in somebody else who promises to "turn it around". To them, the gov't goes with the money like the Maytag repairman is to their washing machine. The repair man fixes it; the government manages it; To the people, if the money ends up with a problem, it means the person in charge was incompetent, or, ala Enron, crooked. They don't see beyond the gov't/money paradigm (yet).

When the situation deteriorates to the point where the people do find that they must involve themselves in the money; when they are driven to this point; when they find that the "problem" with the money is really quite simple and basic, as opposed to Ph.D.-level complex (justifying a labyrinth of central banks, IMF, ESF, World Bank, etc.).
When they get a grip on how they've been betrayed, look out. Yes, BETRAYED. Swindled. And worse, "sucked in".

The question in my mind is, how close must we get to TSHTF before a real, popular discussion of THE MONEY does ensue? How close to the fire?

Druid: Glennh10, great post. You've stated quite nicely what I was in a hurry to try and convey on Saturday. Below is another perspective. Like I said before, it's this "mass" awakening about what "money" is and isn't that scares me to the hills. Enjoy.

"Oct 6: We hope and pray that this adjustment [in the US$'s value on foreign exchanges], which is unavoidable, will be slow and gradual. We will do everything in our power to make it slow and gradual. - outgoing ECB chief Wim Duisenberg"

Moving to other things deemed fated, let's turn to Wim, Duisenberg, that is, of the ECB who thinks the US$ is fated to fall. While I agree with Mr. Duisenberg that the US$ must fall, which is to argue that it is currently overvalued, I disagree with the slow and gradual prescription.

It seems to me that in everyone's life there is one most precious commodity, time. The vast majority of people who have ever lived on this planet have packed their whole material existence into the span of 80 years. In that context, 5 years of one's life seems a huge amount of time. Imagine working towards a goal for a few years only to find that it was almost impossible from the outset. Imagine working for Enron. Imagine living in Japan for the past 13 years now as the status quo is maintained at the expense of future generations. We seem to be wasting a lot of time these days.

This wasted time is not well captured by economic statistics, indeed, one of the themes from the monetary powers that be is that people are making better use of their time, as measured by Productivity. Yet these statistics do not distinguish between the diligence of Sisyphus or that of Heracles. One can work quite
hard while at the same time, accomplish nothing. Sadly, it is only with the passage of time that the futility of some past efforts becomes clear.
In a sense, this was one of the goals of free markets and hard money, to provide warning signs when there were gross misallocations of resource, i.e. wasted time. I recently met an unemployed stock broker who had moved up from the city. He had spent 8 years learning how to pitch stocks and was coming to the realization that he had few other skills, despite a graduate degree in "Business Administration." As he can't find a job in his field he is now coming to think that he "wasted his time."

There are, of course, other ways that one can waste time. To the extent one can see the federal debt as time to be spent by citizens earning money to repay it, receipts of debt sales which aren't put to good use are another source of wasted time. Felix Rohatyn of Lazard Freres fame draws the distinction between good debt and bad debt by pointing to its use. According to Mr. Rohatyn, the US needs to take the American Society of Civil Engineers report, which concluded two years ago that bringing America's infrastructure to acceptable standards would require an investment of $1.3 trillion over five years, seriously.

Whether you agree with Mr. Rohatyn or with the current calls from the Bush team for more money for Iraqi reconstruction in a strict economic sense would seem to be based on the chances of success. That is, to the extent the US can gain control over and divert a significant portion of Iraqi oil revenues our way, whether directly or simply by keeping oil prices down, for a considerable period of time, it would seem to be a wise investment. I, for one, am skeptical about the chances of that type of success. The future will tell us if we have all been, in a collectivist sense, wasting our time.

Cometose

(10/06/2003; 22:42:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109937)

(No Subject)

I think Jim Sinclair said 92.38 was the magic number on the dollar........hmmmm something about gold going up on dollar devaluation....Said he put on a big bet friday on the long side....430 sounds just fine and 509 sounds even better.....meter's running boys (big) time to pay the piper.. he who owns the gold makes the rules.....they are going to have fun stripping you from your money.....

Robert

(10/06/2003; 22:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 109938)

gold, oil and food

Thanks to everybody who responded to my earlier posting on this subject. I appreciate all responses regardless whether critical or supportive. After all, I am visiting this fine forum in order to learn and gain from the collected insight and wisdom of all contributors.

Mr Gresham: thanks for your encouraging words. Regarding the unfolding energy crisis, my advice to you is not to talk too much about this subject to your family and your friends. If you do, very soon you might be considered crazy. People do not like to face pessimistic issues, everything social has to be optimistic. Various people have been writing on the depletion of fossil fuels for a long time, especially since the 1970's. This had the tragic effect that the general public (including politicians) now believes that this is empty talk without much relevance for our present lifes. If at all, we may run out of fossil fuels in some distant future, definitely not during our own life.

Aristotle: Thanks for your advice regarding thinking. While I continue to obey your advice, please consider the following story. In 1912 the famous Titanic hit an iceberg and sank within a few hours. According to the experts at that time this could not have happened because the Titanic was designed to be unsinkable. In fact, since the ship was unsinkable, the designers deliberately decided not to equip the ship with a full set of rescue boats in order to save the shipping company a few bucks. A few boats were added anyway, perhaps more for decoration than for insurance purposes. It was this tragic decision which caused the unnecessary death of many hundred (if not thousand) people.

What makes this story interesting for this forum is the fact that one of the passengers on the Titanic was the famous and very wealthy John Jacob Astor (1864-1912). He was one of the non-surviving passengers. His wife Madeleine Astor did survive not because she was wealthy, no, simply because she was a woman. 18 years ago, when the wreck of the Titanic was found on the floor of the Atlantic, the gold jewelery and the gold pocketwatch belonging to John Jacob Astor were recovered. I do not know whether Astor offered any rewards for a seat on a rescue boat or not. Nevertheless, Aristotle, we can ask the following hypothetical question: Do you think that anybody on the rescue boat (there were male adults on the rescue boats as well) would have traded his seat for all the gold Astor's estate could have bought at that time?
Can gold be really wealth if it can not save your life?

In the past, gold was called the metal of kings because only kings could afford the army of soldiers and peasents necessary in order to defend the gold against the "rule of life". The history is full of kings who lost their life (as well as their gold) despite the fact that they had plenty of gold.

The idea that gold may not buy food in the future does indeed appear ridiculous because it contradicts all historical experience. Today gold does buy plenty of food and many other things. And that will be true as long as the marginal cost of producing one ounce of gold will exceed (by many orders of magnitude) the marginal cost of producing one ounce of food (or other goods). In the past, food scarcity was always a local phenomenon. If you suffered from food scarcity, you only had to travel some long distance in order to solve the problem (the potato famine in Ireland caused a huge immigration wave of Irish people to the US). Of course, when traveling, gold comes very handy as a means of payment especially if there is an abundance of food and other goods at your destination. However, if the prediction of a global food scarcity in this century turns out to be true (and these predictions are too serious in order to be rejected as nonsense), then any seller of food for gold will have to face the same basic question as the man in the rescue boat: "do I wish to risk my own survival for the pleasure of owning the yellow metal?"

You can not take the gold with you when leaving this planet. You can hold gold only for a limited period of time. Eventually, you have to sell it against fiat or give it away for free (if it is not taken away from you by force).

By the way, the book "the power of gold" by bernstein contains many interesting historic incidents documenting the tragic importance of this basic question. While I do not agree with the general conclusion of that book, I nevertheless recommend it for the highly interesting history of gold, the symbol of wealth.

slingshot

(10/06/2003; 23:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 109939)

Midas Crusade

The coming days would show the benefits of this alliance.
The Captains of War spent long nights at the Oaken Table. Planning to use all their resources to the best of their capabilities against the Dark Forces.Demonstrations of bow sword and horsemanship on the field beside the castle, were observed by Sir Black Blade and Omar. Lady Waverider joined them and then Omar asked Lady Waverider. May I handle your sword,my Lady? A slight bow to the woman and when he stood up straight, smiled. Even with her remembering his actions at the Oaken Table, he was very handsome and handed him her sword. Thank you, he said. Moving away from them,Omar swung the sword in a variety of moves that were swift and determined actions. It is a good sword, light with a strong blade. Well balanced and the grip firm. You have choosen well. He handed the sword back to her. Omar,then drew his sword and handed it to Lady Waverider. She stepped back and she too swung the sword. Lady Waverider found it also well in her hand. It was long and slim,yet the metal would withstand the blow of any broadsword. The blade swished through the air as to whisper. Handing it back to Omar, she said. It is a fine sword and thanked him for letting her handled it.But Omar wasn't finished. Can you ride a horse? Lady Waverider said Yes. Then Omar shouted in Arabic and a horse was brought to him. This is Allahar.
A beatiful white arabian moved close to Omar. He has been my friend and we trust each other, said Omar. Would you like to ride him? He is quite gentle. Lady Waverider could not resist and she climb into the small saddle. Slight adjustments to the saddle had to be made,but in no time she was ready to ride. Omar, grabbed the reigns and before handing them to the rider, talked to Allahar. The slight nervousness disappeared in the horse. Then Omar redrew his sword and gave it to her. See that straw head upon the pole in the field'said Omar. Lady Waverider, acknowledged. Cut it off! A soft snap of the reigns and she rode out into the field toward the pole. Those on the field stopped to watch as horse and rider come to full gallop.
She drew back the sword high above her head and in a single swipe, severed the straw head from the pole in one motion.
Omar was delighted. Lady Waverider returned. Can you use a bow? asked Omar with excitement in his voice. Sir Black Blade, called for his and it soon was placed in her hands.
Come to a full gallop and hit the target at the far end of the field. She turned Allahar back and rode off. All eyes looked in her direction. Lady Waverider rose up in the stirups and leaning forward over Allahar, brought both bow and arrow to bear on the target. She drew back as the horse
ran across the grass field and let loose the arrow. It was an eternity as the arrow was in flight. Only the sound of it reaching its target broke the silence. It was a killing shot and the approval could be heard across the field.
Sir Black Blade and Omar jumped for joy. Sir M.K and Gandalf came to where they were standing.
Omar took hold of Sir M.K.'s hand. Bow 'sword, horse and speed are now one, he said joyfully.They can not stand before us.Lady Waverier returned with Allahar. A crowd surrounded her.
Never before has this been accomplished.
In the coming weeks,riders and horse were matched and practiced these skills. Many volunteered,few were choosen.
It was the Ladies of the court, as Omar suspected, that proved to be the most capable. Being small yet having great strength. They had a magical bonding with the horses which could not be explained.
As they pactice more and more people sought out the castle. Then one day, word came that the great trading town, which rested between two rivers, had fallen.
Hammerton which lied between the Tyre and Epis river had been turned into a fortress. Both rivers had a single bridge to the east and west and their entrances well fortified.
Maps were laid across the Oaken Table. Cougar studied them. He would hold the key to the taking of Hammerton.
Sir M.K. Gandalf,Omar,and Sir Black Blade gathered at the castle gate. We must march! We can not wait no longer , said Sir M.K. What about the Valiant Knights of Old,and those from the Valley of Clouds?, asked Gandalf.
Again Sir M.K. said, We can wait no longer.
Slingshot--------------------<>

Aristotle

(10/07/2003; 00:07:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109940)

Robert, enlisting a battalion of straw men (one fallacy or many) won't help you overthrow the truth

Didn't I warn you of this in my message? You aren't THINKING enough if you're simply pursuing this same old tired line of reasoning.

Didn't I also warn you that this same strawman logic/argument your using could also be used to overthrow the notion that ANYthing ELSE could be considered wealth?

Let's put it into practice!

You said:

"Do you think that anybody on the rescue boat would have traded his seat for all the gold Astor's estate could have bought at that time? Can gold be really wealth if it can not save your life?"

Your implication is that, "...because Gold could not save them in that situation (i.e., those in the water,) THEREFORE, Gold cannot be considered wealth."

In this same situation, could food have saved them? No. Therefore food is not wealth. Could medicine have saved them? No again. Therefore medicine is not wealth. Oil? Nope. Not wealth. Their castle, shack, cave, undeveloped land? Nope. None of them THEREFORE (using Robert logic) are wealth! Etc? etc. etc!

Weeeeeeeelllllllll then, I guess the only thing you proven is that wealth is a lifeboat. Or perhaps iceburg free waters? Or perhaps it's a crippling fear of trans-Atlantic voyages which keeps you off the Titanic in the first place? Or whatever wealth is, of this we can be sure. In Robert's world, wealth is somehow inextricably bound up with the ill-fated Titanic, and that handful of persons who lived to tell the tale.

I'm not buying into it.

Like I warned earlier, your own strawman fallacy could (and WOULD) be used against you to prove that IF Gold could not be considered wealth in your world, then NOTHING else could, either.

But I'll be charitable for the sake of advancing this discussion. Let's assume that you're making a broader statement about wealth. Something to the effect that wealth is anything you happen to have at the time it is singularly needed to keep you from dying.

In that case, Gold can very easily be shown to be wealth using this lame example (in keeping to the tradition we've established above.)

You're walking down a dark street. A mugger shoves a gun in your back and says, "Gimme some Gold or I'll blow you away!"

If you have Gold, your life is saved from the brink of death. THEREFORE, I have conclusively shown beyond all doubt that Gold is wealth.

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!

See? This is what simple thinking will do for us. Zippo. THEREFORE, we must engage in DEEEEEEEP thinking. That's exactly what I roundly encouraged you to do in my first message. I hope you'll take me up on it. You'll be glad you did. Please strive to expand that view of the world you carry with you far beyond this cripplingly narrow perspective/interpretation you're projecting. [That is, projecting "narrowness" insofar as this singular thing is concerned. You'll please take special notice that the applicability of this reproach is not to be interpreted as extending in any way beyond the limited topic at hand -- i.e., it's nothing personal, nor is is questioning core competence in any other facet of your existence.]

Gold. It's wealth -- whether you like it or not. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Great Albino Bat

(10/07/2003; 00:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 109941)

Robert: about not talking about gold

Robert, I have been talking about gold for many years, to all who would listen.

I can tell you that many friends, who years ago were quite skeptical, now consider me as some kind of oracle. Even my bankers. They only wish they personally, had the cash to invest in gold. (They bought stocks!)

For the moment, those who favor gold and say so, especially in the US, where (as Tocqueville noted so many years ago) opinions contrary to those held by the majority are not welcome, have an uphill battle. That is going to change shortly.

Your comments about special situations such as the sinking of a ship, where gold will not buy a place on a lifeboat, are really beside the point. No one will be willing to receive some gold in exchange for taking your place in front of the firing squad, either. But what does that have to do with gold? Nothing at all.

What gold does is give you a much better chance amid the ups and downs of life, and that, no one can deny. Having gold, assures you that you have done what is HUMANLY POSSIBLE. We are all subject to the violent changes which life hurls at us. We can only do, the best we can.

Gold is the best we can do. Nothing further is guaranteed.

The GAB

Just what are you trying to prove, anyway?

silvercollector

(10/07/2003; 00:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109942)

Chris Powell

Thank you very, very much for the updates and info. at this critical juncture in time.

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 01:02:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109943)

Just what in blazes is WEALTH anyhow?

Wealth is a perception. It can be financial. It can be health. It can be peace of mind. It can be family. It can be knowledge. It can be one object or the accumulation of many objects. It is in the eye of the beholder. As for gold?
It is a vehicle to obtain status.A denser material with more high tech applications (space exploration) then the less dense material(FIAT). Maybe its a symbionic relationship. One will not live without the other? Ha! One too heavy to carry. The other so light one can print it to infinity. So in surmation. The idea of wealth can change in a moment, depending upon the situation at hand. But at the moment it is financial and GOLD is at the top of my list.
Slingshot--------------<>

Usul

(10/07/2003; 01:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109944)

MK's serious question about California

Argentina's economic crisis led to shrinking net capital flows and a deep, protracted, economic contraction of more than 10 percent (World Bank data) which also negatively affected closely linked countries such as Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia.

Throughout the Latin America and Caribbean region, contraction followed 0.4 percent growth in 2001.

California is the largest exporter among US states, with top exports being Electric and Electronic Equipment, Industrial Machinery and Computers, Transportation Equipment, Scientific and Measuring Instruments and Food Products.

Its top export markets in 1996 were Japan: $19.7 bn, Canada: $10.6 bn, Mexico: $7.8 bn, Korea: $7.4 bn, and
Singapore: $5.6 bn. The economic ties between California and the rest of the US are also no doubt of great significance.

A falling dollar could conceivably improve California's export situation. However, should there be a dramatic contraction in capital flows, or a LTCM-type event, there is a risk of cascading cross-defaults disrupting international trade, utility supply, and import-export trade through west coast ports.
Without liquidity and trusted means of exchange, export goods could pile up unsold on warehouse shelves.

Basil

(10/07/2003; 02:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109945)

Keep It Simple

Reading this forum most every day but some thoughts are way over my head. Call me dense but am still unable to grasp this oil/gold/Another concept.

We print more and more fiat and it is accumulated by our trade creditors from whom we buy more stuff than sell(oil'screwdrivers,clothing,etc).
They've gone along with this scam sofar because they receive interest payments for holding debt--said interest guaranteed by USA's ability to squeeze taxes from her citizenry.

But why are creditors apparently holding back exchanging these increasing amts of $ confetti for Euros,Gold,Gold Dinar,good farmland--anything but computer bits only backed by taxes(insufficient to even cover our own gov't budget) plus Bernacke's "power of the printing press"??.
Is it fear that if they begin dollar dump in earnest the dike will break and all will be left holding the proverbial bag?

Why doesn't OPEC want dollar price of oil high as possible as long as possible?
Conversely why wouldn't USA powers always wish OPEC oil low in price?

The concept of our gov't somehow favoring Iraq's oil NOT getting to market seems convoluted but I'm willing to listen to reasons.

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 02:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109946)

Glennh and Druid Q & A

Druid : Liked your response "Wasting Time" to Glennh's "The Money".

Glennh : The answer to your question "How close to the fire..." is relatively simple : When the fire starts to burn the currency (currencies). Burning of a currency = price inflation > hyper price inflation > total worthlessness. Go on a world tour and collect a specimen of ALL the currencies that are worth less than the paper they are printed on AND ARE STILL IN USE !!!

All those banana-currencies were wildly depreciating as in contrast with our trusted currencies ($-�-Y) who do detoriate-devalue in an orderly manner...in relative harmonious concert.

But I still remember the eighties where price-inflation soared, IRs rushed to 14%-15%-17%, the POG topped at 850$/Oz and a general panic was growing. This event was NOT happening in the Congo but in the US and Europ where the $ and DM were not percepted as banana-currencies !!!

Another 1971-(SHTF)event might happen overnight, without any warning or loud public signal. A new big currency-fire !

Is the recent re-enforced Gold manipulation (reshuffling-redistribution) since 1994/95, similar to the London Gold Pool of the sixties, pr�ceding the 1971 event !!!-???
IMVHO, it is Sir. And our planet did not stop spinning around after 1971 and will not stop with a next shocking confetti/digit-event.

Indeed, an overwhelming majority of good folks don't mind wasting their time and efforts on the accumulation or the consolidation of their "wealth" ! That's exactly the reason why the *permanent currency depreciation* will always continue and repeat itself. Nothing wrong with this for as long as this system remains workable and can remain in use to generate broad "global" prosperity. Emphasis on "global" NOW as being different some decades ago, where it were the US and Europe (together) who were leading this planet. We have fast growing other players (powers) coming up on the scene.

What is happening NOW ? : The dollar-power remains over-confident that its ongoing declining maneuver against many different other currencies, is OK ! The general public never cared about "exchange rates" and will "never" care about it. But exchange rates determine the balance or unbalance in this liberalizing/globalizing planet earth, trade. The dollar exchange rate has gained MUCH more importance than ever before !!! This is "conveniently" under-estimated by many.

Will the dollar go bananas or not...Shakespearian Question of to be or not to be ? Or is it the old dollar (dollar reserve) who is going to bring "stability" AND "growth" ? In the expression TSHF...what is the *S* and what will be the *F* ?

The US$ is not only the currency that is used in California,...but that dollar is at the same time the globe's reserve currency...
But all remain extremely quiet about that little problem in California !? It will go away,...isn't it ?

�/$ exch. rate > 1,1750

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 02:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109947)

Just who in the heck is Slingshot?

Or, Would you like to talk to you fellow Knight or Lady in person? Hear Ye! Hear ye! my Fellow Knights and Ladies.

I purpose that an avenue of intercontinental communication be established between posters at USAGOLD in the form of voice interaction.
Many corporations have had this capability for years.
To hear the voice of Belgian, Aristotle, GAB, Gandalf the White, and Aragorn III, would be priceless.
Ladies and Knights of the Table Round, I ask you voice your opinion.
I for one, am tired of seeing the typographical side of an individual.
Slingshot--------------<>

No other site has purposed this.

DummyANI

(10/07/2003; 02:40:42 MDT - Msg ID: 109948)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 02:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109949)

Basil

I do not have your answers. Just wanted to say Hello.
Slingshot--------------<>

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 03:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 109950)

WEALTH.....

Gold-Wealth seems to be a 5,000 year old tangible that can be transferred to the next generation after one's most ultimate wealt, namely "life" has disappeared. Name me one other tangible that has survived 5,000 years of generational transfers, in the same inert conditions as GOLD ?

�/$ : 1,18

Ari : The main aspect of GOLD is that it is at the "same" time (simultaniously) so easy AND so difficult to "understand" !
That's WHY Gold will be made "more or less" understood for the general public, if and when those that always have known (understood) Gold's role, decide it is the right time and convenient for bringing Gold back into everyone's understanding.

In other words...Do we "NEED" Gold NOW ? The answer of the many, if not all, is : NO WE DO NOT NEED GOLD NOW....because its price (POG) doesn't say so...or...Gold's moves are not enough fun !!! In other words,...we, goldbugs, have no message on this Gold is wealth-talk and other boring theories ! We, the instant money-makers, want action and go where the (ex tempore) action is (created) !

It is when the money-makers (confetti multipliers) are NOT able anymore to make more of the same AND when the stashed confetti is detoriating in its buying power,...then and only then, will the general public, suddenly, easely understand what Gold really always was and remained to be.

It is exactly this very humane psychology that has been exploited by those who managed to hibernate Gold. This remains a "far from my bed theory" for as long as POG isn't shaking the beds. Gold Advocates are the ones who suffer from insomnia and keep on shouting that the Gold Dragon is spitting fire.

Most of those that know that Gold even exists, will buy it...later...much later. Never, ever say ...I told you so ! Give me a smile Ari...thanks, Sir !

The very possible transition from an "orderly" dollar decline into a very possible melt down, will happen extremely brutal ! No time to run for the life jackets or make a start with Wealt Preservation !!! Simple theory for having many goodnight rests.

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 03:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 109951)

Belgian

California Fifth largest economy in the world. Hang on Belgian, They export Tofu. The Ninth Sucket court has made the decision that it is illegal to consume more than 100 hambergers per year. But there can be 60,000 illegal aliens made citizens in a blink of an eye to vote in the next election. If California is the wave of the furture for the states, HOLD ON NELLIE!
Well, Belgian. I can see why you see these DUMB UGLY AMERICANS.
Slingshot-------------<>

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 03:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109952)

Belgian

Damn it. I'm Too slow or your too fast in posting.

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 04:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109953)

Gold Is Wealth

Belgian Goldbugs have no message but this gold is wealth -talk.

I count you in on this.

Goldbugs are God Fearing people
Goldbugs Know Right from Wrong
Goldbugs will help their neighbor
Goldbugs stand for justice
Goldbugs have a sense of humor
Goldbugs stand up for their friends
Goldbugs Love their Family

Slingshot---------<>

silvercollector

(10/07/2003; 04:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109954)

Red Alert!

Dollar index sitting on the edge at 91.85, might bounce off or might fall over the cliff!!!

silvercollector

(10/07/2003; 04:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 109955)

Wow!

USD hit 91.69 at approx. 4:30am this morning. USD on life support.

Dollar Bill

(10/07/2003; 04:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 109956)

*>*.........+

..."The current economic models that emphasize debt and consumption and the transfer of wealth to foreign producers are a prescription for wealth depletion and a roadmap to poverty."

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 05:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 109957)

Global economy (economies)

Renewed debates (Euroland) on manufacturing and service-economies in the wake of the ongoing exchange rate adjustments.

US AND Euroland, realizing AGAIN that very little manufacturing-base will remain on our territories. The new-old mantras of agricultural > industrial > service, natures of our economies, are raging the same nonsense as ever before.

This fast growing global rift between western des-industrialization (manufacturing) and increasing eastern industrialization will be (IS) the fundamental cause for the coming Big changes. Any service-economy needs a solid basis as to have something that needs servicing.

The West consumes what is produced in the East. What are we going to "serve" in the coming decades ? Will the West become one big Entertainment Park without a funny money ?
This evolution is irreversable and the final result will be unworkable. Things are moving fast/faster, these days.
Soon we are going to look for solutions in very quiet (gold)corners. Very UNCERTAIN times ahead !

@ slingshot : NOT the messengers do have any importance,...but rather the messages that needs to be scrutinized by all.

misetich

(10/07/2003; 05:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109958)

1,200 Layoffs Strike at an Industrial City's Heart

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/07/nyregion/07LAYO.htmlSnip:

On Monday, the company confirmed rumors that those ties would loosen, announcing that it would close the two manufacturing plants at its East Syracuse site, laying off 1,200 workers and moving those operations to Asia and the South.
***************
Misetich

More US Jobs exported and/or lost. The continuous shenanigans of misinformation by the BLS and other government agencies to conceal the deterioration of the labor market in the US is a CRIME.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 05:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109959)

@slingshot

Americans are NOT any dummer or smarter than anyone else !
And it is NOT a matter of people but rather a matter of systems, options, past and future.

Goldbugs, most probable correspond with the profile you allocated to them...but these *modern* goldbugs DO NOT BUY PHYSICAL GOLD !!!

One very funny thing struck me in the California business : Warren Buffet, the icon, the hero is campaigning/supporting the terminator fella and his vision on car taxes. Heros for heros as mothers for mothers ? Touching.

Back to my point and watch the steur fish . Doen't produce Beluga in captivity. Very understandable...as like Gold in an Unfree market.
Greetings to you, slingshot.

�/$ : 1,1750 > orderly or dis-orderly decline ?

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 05:48:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109960)

TYPOS all over....

...back to my garden pond (not point). Hope all the other typos do NOT create unnecessary confusion. Sorryyyyyy.

misetich

(10/07/2003; 06:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 109961)

China's PM defends currency peg

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3170088.stmSnip:

China's Premier Wen Jiabao has insisted that China will not be railroaded into revaluing its currency by pressure from its trading partners.

China's policy of keeping the yuan pegged at roughly 8.28 to the US dollar was "based on market demand and supply and is in line with China's reality," he said.

It showed "a high sense of responsibility towards the international community," he added, speaking in Bali ahead of a summit of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean).
..................
Mr Wen said China would seek an "appropriate" exchange rate "in the course of further economic reform".

Chinese regulators are worried that the banking system is not strong enough to cope with sudden adjustments to the exchange rate.

Mr Wen pointed out that China's exports amount to 5% of the world's total.
*************
Misetich

China has been in the "foreground" and limelight lately vis a vis Yuan currency peg.

If, Mr. Wen is correct (?!) and Chinese exports only amount to 5% of world total or thereabouts - an upwards revaluation would do little to change the US dilemma.

Fact is US has been focusing on IT infrastrure and service industry and debasing their manufacturing as corporations are guided by profits rather than nationalism

Blaming other countries such as China, is very politically accomodative

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 06:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 109962)

Belgian

Yes, My Fellow Knight.
They will buy the paper gold. for that is what they are accustumed too.But my Friend as I am about to remove stitches from my most trusted friend Wally, who is a dog who has had surgury,he will not understand. if he bites me I will understand. for those who buy paper, I do not!
Slingshot------------<>

misetich

(10/07/2003; 06:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 109963)

Act II: The Greatest Stock Market Mania Of All Time

http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htmSnip:

Thus, we have a two edged sword; not only is margin exploding for the most speculative issues but the one area that can support the markets in a price correction - cash reserves - is rapidly dwindling.
....................
The Dow's seller/buyer ratio has now ballooned to 29,
implying a similar or worse d�neumont is now in store for stocks.
.......................
***************
Misetich

Bulls vs Bears are battling it out in stocks, bonds and gold markets. Heavy artillery poised on both sides -

Bulls are counting on US led global economic recovery and "don't fight the Fed" doctrine as the Feds are perceived as being in their corner

What makes Gold Bulls so powerful? What ammunition do they have in their arsenal?

...a powerful "slingshot"! TRUTH AND REALITY

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 07:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109964)

Belgian

Pulled about 6 of of 14 before a growl. Tomorrow will try again.
You have been kind in your responses to my questions, as most have in the past. But I have been here TWO YEARS with hardly a challenge. Hell, what do I think about any subject.
Sorry, I do not mean to pick on you specificly but the interaction between the Small Time Investor and the heavy hitters has been slim. I can make the same case as the lurkers remain lurkers, afraid to ask a question by posting.
I'm tired of giving a coin dealer report. Give the small investor a question to answer. You will find more questions than answers.
Slingshot------------<>

Have some rocks to throw?

Cometose

(10/07/2003; 07:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109965)

CHEAP GOLD : BYE BYE

Looks like the dollar is breaking up .....
Say goodbye to cheap gold.......looks like we may have a multi car(market) pile up this October.....
Enjoh the ride !!!!!!!!!!!!1

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 07:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 109966)

@ Basil

Things are not as complicated as you might think : Once you accept/acknknowledges that OIL IS INCREASINGLY RULING THE WORLD'S AFFAIRS...most things become rather simple.

When so much power gets more and more concentrated into ONE thing like OIL...world players find it more and more difficult to balance their actions.

Here in Euroland, we are daily watching documentaries on everything related to oil matters (CIA-FBI-oil clans-Presidents-etc...) from the past 30 years up until 9/11. Amazing stuff !!!
Robert B. Baer (ex CIA secret operations) is extremely stimulating in provoking observers' thoughts on OIL and many oil related events !!!

Your question is suggesting that you would like to have the coming changes happening, NOW, all at once !? This is not the way things work out, Sir. There is A LOT of things that are in the process of evolving, all at the same time, but not necessary at the same speed or intensity.
We keep on watching all together, Yes !

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 08:26:12 MDT - Msg ID: 109967)

Re > slingshot

In posting my reflections on other's postings/ideas... I'm excersizing my insights and communicate these as to see them rebuffed or finetuned. That's what this FREE Gold forum is about, isn't it. I wish to learn and am happy that CPM is providing such an excellently/brilliantly managed platform for doing so. Lurkers do know, imo, that many of their questions will find an appropiate answerer, sooner or later. Amen.

N.Korea is excluding Japan from further talks/negociations !!! My interpretation : N.Korea is China's stick in the geopolitical power play. China and Japan still keep on hating each other. Japan is the US' poodle (sorry, ally). The East (Korea-Iran) wants to have an equal say in the balance of the world's powers by going nuclear. This against the background of Arabian oil and the growing manufacturing/industrial base in the East. This has repercussions on the currency wars and the dollar reserve in particular. Right or wrong analyses ?

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 08:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 109968)

Belgian

Point well taken. You have much to offer and your presence is very much appreciated. Do you think my suggestion of a corporate conference call of Knights is can be accomplished?
Slingshot-----------------<>

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 08:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 109969)

WALL STREET

Bob (Pisani) is already shouting for 3 days in a row that all the analyst do have it completely wrong...THEY UNDERESTIMATED ALL THE RESULTS !!! UNDERESTIMATED !!!
Elvis is still alive and Eastern will exceptionally fall on a monday this year.

The US$ is lettng the Japanese know THAT THEIR CURRENCY IS UNDERVALUED ...their currency, the Yen !
In other words : Japanese, decline your production and exports ...start buying instead of selling as your contribution to the globe's economical revival !!!-???
Any other thoughts on this Y/$-affair ? TIA.

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 09:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 109970)

@slingshot

Sure, such a Knight gathering can be organized. Why not.
But is this a good thing ?
I prefer to read/study the naked messages without becoming attached to the person(s) who do produce these messages/comments/thoughts and insights. It is not important WHO says something, but rather WHAT he/she is saying. Playing the ball and not the person. But that's only my personal view.

@ misetech : Let us not attach too much importance on those Chinese (unreliable) figures. Jobs, manufacturing AND services are going eastwards and we (the west) remain with the verifyable facts of an increasing degree of unemployment and the blablablah (downplaying) that already for a long time, goes with it. In Euroland we are also starting to pay (political) "professors" for bringing such messages to the populace. Ongoing Infantilization and de-responsabilzation of the masses !!! Let it happen, Sir...let it happen...

Pizz

(10/07/2003; 09:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 109971)

Random Thoughts

Belgian: Y/$ - If there is to be a currency crisis, or better yet a "paper" crisis, you can bet that it will not be the perceived fault of the $ or US. Politically I see no way Bush and the boys are going to be able to keep rates low, SM high and higher thru elections. Best let a bunch of excesses out of the system now, and try to get re-elected on the upswing or snap back. Japanese banks, from what I've read over the past few months are not going to be able to take a strongly higher yen/$. No one will mess with China, so Japan would appear to not have a seat in the ongoing round of musical chairs, IMHO.

Slingshot: Love to set up some type of verbal exchange on a regular basis, as long as you don't mind the company of a gold orientated, ex-bean counter, turned GM. Easy to set up.

Mr. G: Hope your real estate came out as well as mine - only cost me a couple years worth of wear and tear on my stomach lining during the process.

Rich: Movin' the silver stash has been the easy part, digging new holes has been the hard part. . .

Pizz

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 10:12:11 MDT - Msg ID: 109972)

Belgian

Is it a good thing? Oh, Belgian. How can one hide behind the words that have helped many in their journey to freedom? In this day and age when communcation is as simple as pressing a button, to receive messages around the world, would we deny our fellow goldbugs a chance to talk with the Sages of the gold Community. Is voice communication that distant from characters printed upon a forum. I have received pictures of others posters and the energy has been fantastic to say the least. A picture is worth a thousand words. Say hello to me on voice mail and I do not think I would speak for a half hour. In the tech age the world is becoming smaller.
Why not take advantage.
Slingshot--------------<>

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 10:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 109973)

Sir Pizz

Thank you for stepping forward.

@ Gandalf, I give you permission to release my picture of me and my good friends to whoever request it from the forum.

Who is Slingshot? Not a pretty picture. You may take the liberty of a laugh or two.

Ladies and Knights of the Table Round. Let us not pass this opportunity to see our comrades before it is too late.

Slingshot-------------------<>

Subcomandante Tomas

(10/07/2003; 11:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 109974)

The rightful price of gold

As I see it, in 1913 you could sell a suit for $21 and buy an ounce of gold. Today, you could sell a suit for $375 and buy an ounce of gold. But the supply of paper money has grown 14 times the supply of gold. Therefore, the price of gold should be $5250 per ounce. Please let me know if there's a flaw in this reasoning or the numbers used.

steady

(10/07/2003; 11:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 109975)

still more on ecoism

ecosim
is barely alive but u know the govts are indirectly suppressing ecoism as some bankers wrongfully want there revenue streams to come from negative effects upon there sheep. which means there offspring start off in negativity and never understand the concept of positiviy. this is a fatal error in deminishing there ability to function independently of the system and they want that negative revenue stream rather than positive streams.
this difference is profound as one set of bankers wants to bleed there revenue streams into submission, and total dependency upon the state while other drivers want to see the revenue streams come from positve units of accounts ie heathy sheep that produce healthy poitvie self supportive sheep who can pass wealth down to there lambs, while maintaing the integrity of the system ecoism yearning to watch develop here on planet earth.
ecoisnm waits for the next big thing to launch it into human consciouness.
i wonder if ecoism came from uranus? yes there is gold on uranus! but the noxious gasses on uranus make it to stinky to mine at these prices!

Pizz

(10/07/2003; 11:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109976)

Good Reading

May have come up on the forum prior, and if it did I sure as heck missed it, but I just got thru reading "The Fourth Turning".

This book is a must read for anyone that would like a macro glimps of the future based upon social trends and cycles that sure appear to be etched in perverbial concrete. If this was required reading in school, gold would be in moderate 5 figures per ounce - easy.

Not an easy read, and I recommend fondling an ounce or two while being deeply engrossed in the last third of the book. You will have absolutely no doubt in your mind why you're in possession of some shiny, golden metal.

Pizz

cockerel1

(10/07/2003; 11:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 109977)

Interesting Article from Mining Web.

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256DB8005C79E7Why should government interfere with any operation in this manner? Does anyone have a viable explanation?

Pizz

(10/07/2003; 11:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109978)

erell

Money! Some governments do know that commodities (including PM's) are going to go in the opposite direction of fiat. Raise taxes on gold, which will limit supply, which will help force the price up, and tax revenues will eventually increase right along with the price of gold. Do you not think that governments are not going to get on the Gold Bull? Rest assured that the gold that is uneconomical to mine at the higher rates will very soon become very economical to mine. Looks like a positive to me. . .and as long as governments exist, we will have to pay some vigorish. .even us, sooner than you may think.

In contrast, California may try to raise taxes on an economy that is falling off a cliff, and this will do nothing but increase the problem.

Pizz

Basil

(10/07/2003; 11:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 109979)

Pizz-re silver stashes

How safe are such "below grade" banks from remote flyover identification thru state of art equipment by gov't or other snoops who'd like to take it?
How affected by depth?

This issue of where/how to really store physical safely and discreetly needs airing imo.

steady

(10/07/2003; 11:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 109980)

feedback sorely needed

does ecoism stand a chance? flame away! constructive criticizm welcom, destructive criticism welcome also. posting in a vacum (no feed back) sucks !

cockerel1

(10/07/2003; 12:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 109981)

Pizz

It never ceases to amaze me!
The same mentality exists in every facet of commerce and I wonder why?

Any time the market looks good, TBTB try to take advantage by increasing taxes. Is the mentality so restricted, that they do not see that giving incentive to the market would increase the produtivity, thereby increasing their overall "tax take." By increasing the burden, they stand the chance of limiting the productivity and therefore losing out on the tax base. "Liberal" governments have been doing this for years, hence we have ever increasing taxes and debt, and ever decreasing productivity and unemployment.

The stupidity of these actions is something that even I understand.

Gonlyold

(10/07/2003; 12:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 109982)

Seems They're At It Again

The Powers That Be will not let gold gain ground. Notice how the POG was wacked again. I believe that the name of the game is control. TPTB cannot let wealth, in this case gold, be uncontrolled.

Notice the rumors of taxing gold. That's no rumor. I believe that was an attempt to control gold and that "they" were testing the market for resistance. The play of course is if you don't pay your taxes, "they" have the authority to take your gold. If gold starts moving, I expect taxes and/or other controls to follow it.

GATT is really going to have to win big to break trough this. I also wonder whether the public will be advised of the court opinion or will it be sealed because of some preceived "world security".

Stay tuned to further "controlling" developments.

Rimh

(10/07/2003; 13:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 109983)

Thanks CPM!

Just received my silver eagle as a first time participant in the last contest, and what a beauty it is! Thanks CPM!

On the tax issue, yes the government may very well do it because as was pointed out earlier, they are short-sighted and can't see the benefits of reducing taxes. How will we ever survive as a society when so very few of our leaders have such short term vision? If only there were a lot more like Ron Paul with some understanding and wisdom (scarce commodities in any gov't methinks).

Live small and hold gold.

VanRip

(10/07/2003; 14:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 109984)

SE Asia Free Trade Zone by 2020

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031007/wl_nm/asia_asean_dc_8
Interesting news out of Bali. Worth a look. Should rattle a few cages. Looks as if these folks aren't fooling around. Not a word about gold or currencies. Wonder why they were not mentioned in the article.

(Snip)

BALI, Indonesia (Reuters) - Southeast Asian leaders Tuesday endorsed a plan to transform the region into a giant free trade zone by 2020, with several urging a faster pace if they are to keep up with the rest of the world.

---------------------------------------

"If we join forces, Korea and ASEAN members and by extension, all of East Asia, will become the engine of growth for the world economy, and the 21st century will be the age of East Asia," South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun told business leaders.

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 14:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109985)

Rimh

Recently, I have asked my Co-Workers.

What would it take for you to take up arms......

Taxes was at the bottom of the reasons.
Slingshot------------<>

CoBra(too)

(10/07/2003; 14:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 109986)

It's Obvious!

The Us dollar is not allowed to tank according to its needs.

... and even that may be beside the point, as the US debt has long passed the point of no return.

The problem of a solely fiat based currency, being also the globe's reserve money is now glaringly becoming obsolete. As even the "retarded" 3'rd world appreciates, tie your currency to the dollar ... and you're ending up a pauper.

- And still, there is China - BTW, Wal Mart, or is it China Mart was the only stock touted on GE-CNBC today - not succumbing to the notion of taking less value for their labour ... by accepting still more confetti dollars ( courtesy of) the FED, backed by FRN's, and nothing of much substance else ... a hoot, or two!

So the real IQ may not be the genius, rather something below retarded levels around 70 - if we and the world arre lucky.

That still may be a best case scenario, as the potential of total anilihation of the dollar standard is becoming reality ... protect yourself ... and get as much gold as you can ... cb2

Pizz

(10/07/2003; 14:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 109987)

Slingshot

What were the top three?

Pizz

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 14:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 109988)

Pizz

Freedom Of Movement
Confiscation of Arms
Confiscation of property. (HOME)
Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 14:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 109989)

Pizz

Ok, Ok what were the rest Wage control.
Taxes

Simple but to the point.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Rimh

(10/07/2003; 15:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 109990)

slingshot

Unfortunately they may not see that raising taxes is in essence a confiscation of property in a subtle "frog in heating water" way.

Indeed, even the first two items are being pulled out from under us by not-so-subtle means recently. At what point do your co-workers consider enough is enough?

Would they consider their own subtle attacks on big gov't by loading up on the cheap gold while the gov't is still holding the price down for them?

Just a thought....

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/07/2003; 15:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 109991)

Page Update!

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 15:48:51 MDT - Msg ID: 109992)

Surge and Pullback

Sort of giving a sailor a heve-hoo.;0)

What constitutes a surge?
What constitutes a Pullback?

The days of the 10 cent surge and the twenty cent pullback are over. Is there a percentage of deflection from the established POG to even say Gold was flat if it remained within a channel? If Gold begins to whipsaw how would the pog be determined as a surge or Pullback.
Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(10/07/2003; 16:06:34 MDT - Msg ID: 109993)

Rimh

From the bottom upTaxes. They are steady for the most part and the established tax rolls must be voted on.

Wages.Well the temperture rises. A standard or level pay across the board, depending on the skill level. Reguardless of location.

Confiscation of home or property. tell them they have to get out an see what happens.

Confiscation of arms. Ever look down the barrel of a .44 mag?

Freedom of Movement. Tolerable. Don't press it.

Slingshot==========<>

Belgian

(10/07/2003; 16:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 109994)

@ commandante

Yes you can have a vey nice suit for one ounce of Gold. In fact you can get today even 10 times more of tangibles with one ounce, compared to decades ago. Simply because our currencies are way over-valued in comparaison with the currency values of those that are actually producing those tangibles.

What is more relevant for the determination of the right POG is total debt against total economic activity !
Our currencies are still surviving the obscenety of a global economy that is increasingly *DEBT DRIVEN* !!!
This is amazing and therefor we should keep on analysing WHY and HOW this remains possible. And for how long.

These old comparaisons of Gold's past and present purchasing power are done with in the background an UNFREE goldmarket ! Gold Valuations will be completely different when and if we get a FREE Goldmarket where ALL Gold will be marked to the (Free) market.

Bedtime for us overhere.

Rimh

(10/07/2003; 16:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 109995)

slingshot

Within the context of the survey your co-workers are, of course, right. No debate there.

The issue of taxation was dealing with the effects on the mining industry of new taxes, specifically in South Africa. The same principle applies to individuals. In both cases excess taxes do more harm than good, but gov'ts usually don't see that. Accumulating gold is our best defense for wealth preservation regardless of the tax level. Those were the only points I was trying to make.

Gandalf the White

(10/07/2003; 17:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 109996)

Thanks to those that saw the US$ slip through the FORMER LOW !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iI was out scouting Hammerton and missed it !
Next stop is sub 0.86!!!
Buddy, can you lend me ANOTHER nickel ?
That equates to at LEAST $400. GOLD !
Ok, CABAL, lets see you play that old GAME on the US$ index.
<;-)

CoBra(too)

(10/07/2003; 18:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 109997)

Don't cry for Argentina -

as California may get terminated ... @ MK - cb2

cockerel1

(10/07/2003; 18:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 109998)

Accounting 101

When you find a goose that lays a golden egg, squeeze it, harrass it, make it more expensive to feed and reap the rewards!

Gene

(10/07/2003; 19:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 109999)

Weights

Please tell me,"how many grams in a troy (gold) ounce? TIA

(10/07/2003; 19:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110000)

Black Blade....Duisenberg Comments

It was interesting to me that Duisenberg did not raise the question on the dollar as strong or weak, but instead whether the fall would be gradual (contained) or disastrous. Had the pleasure of talking with Bill Murphy today -- as we touch base once in awhile. I was struck with his comment that in his many discussions, addresses, meetings etc, he always asks 'precisely what are the components of the strong dollar policy.' He says he gets a lot of talk but not much in the way of a real definition. I remarked that their was a strong dollar policy but that it emanated not from the Beltway but downtown Tokyo..............

CB, Rimh, WAC.....Caleefornia could default on substantial debt.....just like Argentina defaulted on substantial debt. California cannot print money and not even the Terminator can alter that de jure fact of life. Will the people line up at the at the door of the bank to withdraw their savings? Will they be told their savings are frozen (as they were in Argentina)? I hope not, but defaults are not pretty -- the cascading effect a reality not to be taken casually. We have had strong business from California over the past six months. I don't think its an accident.

TownCrier

(10/07/2003; 19:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110001)

Gene

troy oz ~ 31.103 grams

R.

cockerel1

(10/07/2003; 19:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110002)

Interesting article! How true!

(I assume this article can be aimed at the U.S. as well as some other societies.)

Canada in the Near Future Part V

A rude awakening ahead for our youth

by Philippe B�rub�

"The foundation of every state is the education of its youth." � Diogenes

"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently." � Friedrich Nietzsche

For the past three months many similarities have been noted on bear market analysis web sites between the economic situation prevailing in the summers of 1929, 1987 and 2003 (such as a collapse of the U.S. bond market). Today I wish to address a major difference between those three summers that could worsen the consequences of the impending North American stock market crash. The issue in question is young people's easy access to credit and their nonchalant attitude towards credit and money.

In the province of Quebec alone, Statistics Canada estimates show that teenagers spend around $2 billion CDN in a year and influence their parents into spending an additional $ 4 billion CDN of household incomes. Across Canada, the actual purchasing power of our 2,5 million teenagers is estimated at $30 billion CDN. Across the nation, we are seeing richer teenagers working shorter hours for a greater amount of money, inside or outside the household. The fact that most teenagers have more money to spend is, by itself, no reason for alarm, but the fact that most of what they spend comes from personal or parental credit surely is.

We can foresee that teenagers and most people of my generation (the twenty some things) will be struck by more severe hardship than the depression that caught their great-grandparents by surprise in the early 1930s. Warning signs for this potential economic disaster can be seen in the commercials aired by the Quebec-based credit unions (Desjardins). Not so long ago, Desjardins was seen as the last remaining promoter of thrift and economy in youth. They are currently encouraging students and teenagers to spend without limits by mailing them coupons to spend in various stores/businesses and offering credit/debit cards to younger audiences each passing year. The constant increase in average credit card debt among students and teenagers is cause for major concern, since it becomes obvious that parents and grandparents will be in no position to help, having amassed great personal debt of their own.

Thrift as a virtue is harder to promote in this country. In many Canadian provinces, both schools and parents are not comfortable to discuss money matters with students. And who filled this void during the last decade? You are right if you guessed banks and major private corporations. These institutions were rather anxious to see teens spend more, on credit if possible. In fact, the Canadian Bankers� Association and Visa Canada are the current largest sponsors of personal finance seminars in our high schools. Too bad they are not shelling out tips on short-selling the stock markets and investing in precious metals. Our teens could eventually help their parents become sound investors, instead of becoming financial casualties themselves.

In 1989, 51% of Canadians aged 15 to 19 held a part-time job. In 2000, only 43% of the same age group did. Were parents of teenagers in the year 2000:

A. Working harder to provide spending money for their kids, or

B. Were simply borrowing more money to pay for their kids� allowances?

Those who answered "B" are correct. This "already borrowing" group of teenagers become even heavier borrowers when the enter university. After completion of a first degree, a student will have accumulated (on average) $21,000 CDN in student debt. Many baby-boomers have told me over the years that this sum was the equivalent of the average $5,000 - $8,000 CDN student debt burden of the sixties. To this observation, I always reply that such loans were often co-signed by parents at a bank and that annual tuition fee hikes were much less dramatic 20 or 30 years ago*. Today, student loans are a fact of life and costs related to post secondary education are well above any savings accumulated during high school.

Another disturbing trend in universities is the growing credit card debt of students. Families who already deal with excessive debt are unwilling to co-sign for a student bank loan, as they know that getting a $40,000 a year job in your chosen field immediately after finishing university or high school is unrealistic**. The "boomers" probably share the blame for influencing my generation into easy borrowing at high interest rate, which is what credit cards offer. Easy money is difficult to refuse, especially at a young age. Reckless behaviour by elders must be emulated as soon as possible in this fast-paced bubble economy.

As mentioned earlier, the fact that a majority of parents don't even discuss the virtues of saving with their children is of concern, but not surprising. Sound money advice from seasoned bear market commentators like Richard Russell and Robert Gordon (i.e. people who actually discuss the lessons learned from the past major recessions) is accessible to a lot less than 1% of the population. Sadly, even mainstream books on the "lessons of history" such as "The Great Crash of 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith are kept out of the curriculum of those who need it the most, the young adults of today.

As the current bear market rally suckers more and more investors to the stock markets I can't help to wonder what will happen to all my friends who have large student debts. What will they think once 50, 70 or 90% of their meagre savings goes up in smoke? My hope is that all these disgruntled youths will quickly learn to appreciate the value of sound money alternatives and that one day, they will be able to support our aging population with savings that are not created out of thin air.

Philippe B�rub�, M.A. Political Science, Ottawa, Canada

Comment: In the last paragraph, the author recognizes the selfishness of the "Baby Boomer" generation and expects it to become an inherant part of life. This is very unfortunate, IMO.

Cavan Man

(10/07/2003; 20:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110003)

Location. Location. Location.

Economic superpower rises in the east

Leaders plan world's largest free trade zone

John Aglionby in Jakarta
Wednesday October 8, 2003
The Guardian

Ten south-east Asian nations yesterday signed a landmark accord to turn their vastly disparate states into an integrated, tariff-free trading and economic community by 2020 that would resemble the early embodiment of the European Union.
At a summit on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, the Association of South-East Asian Nations also agreed to complete deals with China, India and Japan by 2012. The pact with Beijing would create by far the world's largest free trade zone.

Cavan Man

(10/07/2003; 20:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110004)

March of Folly Chronicles

Ankara appeases US by agreeing to deploy troops

Owen Bowcott and Michael Howard in Irbil
Wednesday October 8, 2003
The Guardian

Turkey voted yesterday to send troops to Iraq but several leaders on the US-appointed governing council in Baghdad signalled their opposition to military forces from neighbouring states.

CM comment: This won't play in Kirkuk. Last time the Turks visited Iraq they stayed for a LONG TIME.

Cavan Man

(10/07/2003; 20:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110005)

SA Mining shares a question?

Governments can impact AU shares (believe it!)Royalty pilloried, wipes out 20m oz gold

JOHANNESBURG � The South African government's proposed royalty to be levied on the country's mining companies in 2008 could render as many as 19.2 million ounces of gold uneconomic to mine.
Webber Wentzel Bowens (WWB), one of South Africa's leading law firms, said in a stinging nine-page critique of the proposed new legislation, that the three percent revenue royalty expected to be levied on gold producers, would force mining companies to raise the average cut-off grade of the country's gold industry from 4g/t to 4.2g/t. (The figure was provided by the Chamber of Mines)

"This means that the economically recoverable reserve base would have decreased by about 3.7 percent from 16,250 tonnes to about 15,650 tonnes. In other words, some 600 tonnes of gold would have effectively been sterilized by an introduction of a three percent royalty on gross turnover," said the firm's regulatory law unit, which is headed by mineral law guru and ex-provincial councillor for the Democratic Party, Peter Leon.

Kilo

(10/07/2003; 20:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110006)

Weight

31.1033 grams to the troy (gold) ounce.......

Druid

(10/07/2003; 21:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110007)

Two Days....

and counting. A peachy delight. Are we still on plan?

Federal_Reserves

(10/07/2003; 22:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110008)

Stock Crash Coming?

Conditions are ideal.

Months of sideways trading on the SnP with lots of overhead distribution. As far back as June, the SnP was trading about 1015. Just last Tuesday the SnP was trading under 1000!

Dollar looking like its ready to break below 90.

The CRB looking to make new highs, with crude over $30, and it could go a lot higher.

Remember the last trade on a stock sets the price.

DummyANI

(10/07/2003; 22:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110009)

New dollar paper moneys

Please tell me,�@�gNew dollar paper moneys were already issued in USA ? If not, when they will be issued ? �h

Gandalf the White

(10/07/2003; 22:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110010)

Sir DummyANI -- Please see the following post ! <;-)

Druid (10/07/03; 21:30:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110007)

ski

(10/07/2003; 22:46:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110011)

Has the silver fuse been lit??

Link cannot be given per forum rules..
Within the latest Ted Butler essay dated 10-7-03, and titled "Don't close the COMEX," is an excerpt from a letter from Eliot Spitzer. (NY attorney)

From Mr. Spitzer to Mr. Butler....

"In addition, thank you for making me aware of your concerns regarding price manipulation in the COMEX silver market. I have forwarded your correspondence to the appropriate members of my staff."

...............................

Ski's comment: IMHO the first attorney to expose these dealings will become an overnight public superstar.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/07/2003; 23:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110012)

@SKI - Superstar Attorney

Superstar? I don't know. More likely he will develop a sudden tendency to commit an "apparent" suicide. There seems to be quite a lot of precedence of this kind of behaviour lately, especially with aspiring superstars.

Black Blade

(10/07/2003; 23:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110013)

Gols - What Is Gold? Money? Insurance? A Rare Metal? Investment?

This is an interesting debate. I have thought about this subject for quite some time. I have about 35% of my portfolio in physical Gold and Silver and it would have perhaps been a bit more, however, my paper investments have done quite well. I do know that this is not anywhere close to the norm in today's investment environment. Gold mining shares tend to front run physical Gold prices. Since the POG has not kept up with the frenzied pace of the mining shares, it would stand to reason the price of physical Gold should move much higher. In other words, this Gold Bull has a long way to run.

I view my physical Gold as a hard physical "insurance" asset that I will carry through thick and thin. It is after all the ultimate insurance that has no claim on it by outside forces. I think back to those people through history who had to bribe the border guards to seek a new life of freedom outside nazi/communist domination (essentially the same thin), those who brought their way out of a one way ticket to Auschwitz, Triblinka, Buchenwald, or some Gulag in Siberia, those who watched their life savings vaporize in the Weimar Republic, to escape Vietnam in 1975, those who had Gold during the LatAm (Brazil, Mexico, etc.) currency blowup, those who survived the Asian Contagion with their savings intact, those who are now suffering in Argentina, and those who will suffer in Japan. Gold is the ultimate insurance, it is anonymous and it can be passed along without outside consideration.

Paper assets are for the here and now. Stock is simply nothing more than a "deed" of partial ownership if you will. You and many others have a right to a piece of a company with each share of stock. Stock is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. Stock investing is a speculative game and should not be played with cash that is needed for survival. In short it is a bet on the future direction of a company and the underlying asset. Of course bonds are dependent on the quality of debt by the issuer. Some even tout US government bonds as a safe haven investment. However, not long ago Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated before the Senate Banking Committee that Gold was the "ultimate currency". He did not mention stocks or bonds � he specifically mentioned Gold.

There are also other hard assets such as gemstones and real estate. If you are not an expert in gemstones � stay away! If you are not an expert in the four C's (Cut, Clarity, Color, and Carat) - stay away from diamonds. These are fields best suited for experts in that field and I have seen many people taken for a lot of money for substandard gemstones. It is also very easy for the uninitiated to be taken to the cleaners. It is true that one could hold several million dollars worth of diamonds in the palm of their hand, but again this is not for the majority of people. I have been fortunate enough to know some people in the gem business and was able to obtain a nice selection of rubies, sapphires, zircon, emeralds, opals, etc. However, these are more of a curiosity as specimen samples and not as easily utilized as something identifiable and tradable as Physical Gold during times of crisis!

Real estate is a very good asset to have as well. Though I do not have ownership of a physical residence (due to the nature of my work), one could do well to have real estate fully paid for (and the ability to keep it having the funds for taxes and insurance). OK, I do have some land in the high country. The one downside of real estate is that you cannot transport real estate as easy as Gold. If one were to need to relocate in a hurry, it is easy to grab a stash of Gold and move on. Gold is also easily hidden and is generally undetectable. There usually is no paper trail. I would always suggest outright ownership. Even without a mortgage and with deed in hand, one is still just renting land/property from the local government. I consider property taxes a form of rent (just stop paying those property taxes and see how long you really "own it"). No taxes need be paid on Gold ownership.

I was fortunate enough to make several Gold purchases from miners in Nevada over the last few years willing to part with their precious metals as I sold my services to the Gold mines and I would let it be known that I would purchase all PM awards for attendance and safety � now I am glad I did as I bought bullion well below $300 an ounce for gold and $4.50 an ounce for silver. Many of the Gold mining companies typically give out Gold and Silver medallions as safety and attendance awards. Fortunately some miners would sell me their Gold and Silver awards for beer money (I would venture a guess probably before the wives found out). I have many one ounce medallions, half ounce medallions, and various sizes of JM wafers from Barrick, Placer Dome, Echo Bay, Minorco, Sterling Mine, etc. Since then I have made purchases of Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion (yes even from USAGOLD).

I watch world events unfold with threats of war in Central Asia, violence in the Middle East, the possibility of much more terrorist activity worldwide, a horrific weakening of the US Dollar �in fact all currencies in a "Currency War of epic proportions as nations struggle for a ever smaller consumer base willing to spend, the deepening Global Recession, corporate scandals galore along with "perp walks" before armies of media camera men/women, phoney baloney Arthur Andersen style accounting, complete loss of confidence in Wall Street, Argentine and Japanese banking crises, one looming energy crisis after another, government squabbling and corruption at all levels, etc. If any one of these threats come into full view, I will feel a bit easier knowing that I have physical Gold on hand. In short - I have my investment portfolio very well " insured".

Hey, who knows, I just may have to bribe a border guard or two sometime in the future.

- Black Blade

melda laure

(10/08/2003; 00:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110014)

(No Subject)

Gonlyold, BasilAre they at it again? That's good.
Whaddaya mean the price went up! They cant do that, I just got a fresh wad of fiat!

Last fridays fit was different. Go back and read the forum posts. It was almost a carnival atmosphere. Personally I laughed all the way to the shop. At the end of the day the ESF and banks split a couple hundred million of electronic credits between them. And the rest of us can actually measure somet real, heavy, metallic, yellow progress. Visions of professor smith from Lost in Space. "Oh, the pain! the pain!" Let me weep copious crocodile tears.

Tax gold?

The problem is, (as when Lincoln freed the slaves in confederate jurisdiction) the gold they need to tax is in Mrs Watanabe's purse. Games like that will (in the end, if not the beginning) scare all the buying out of the US and send it elsewhere. The only people who will listen to that stuff are the proto-gold bug set, those who haven't put their toes in the water yet. The real buyers aren't so easily intimidated. In the end, public policy has to be geared towards increased domestic demand for gold to bring in more metal to the country; a gold tax is lunacy- but then we are talking about the government.

Basil, storage...

Well the obvious detection is a metal detector. I might point out the obvious with out being specific. Imagine your house were all built of steel. A metal detector would be pointless, no? The other thing of note, is X-ray diffraction, a new technique that can be used in drive by mode. But even this technique cant pick out the coins from the image if surrounded by a collection of jumbled metal objects.

The last is chemical tests. Unfortunately, a lot of people wear gold rings, so trace amounts of gold are typically found everywhere, though you may want to stop your daily treasure bath, and put away your golden spoon. (then again maybe that would be a good cover/excuse)

I will leave off gamma ray detection since if they are close enough to use a gamma spectrometer they can already see your stash. Though, the use of trace amounts of gold leaf foil in the paint you paint the house with would really drive the equipment nuts; unfortunately, like the diodes strewn in the mortar at the US embassy in russia, such a technique would really look suspicious, unless it were a tasteful decorative treatment.

Burying things deep has always been popular. It is not always discreet nor is it convenient in a quick get-a-way. Ask Gondolin about the time he had to get out of town with a couple thousand orcs on his heels. Fortunately, he had a couple rounds stuffed in his sword-hilt. In death and life, it is usually, "come as you are" death speeches are the stuff of song and legend, and the occasional dying poet.

And now news from the Brass (10Kt) State:

At 7pm I checked the local (mostly LA) tv stations. There was no election coverage. Then I foolishly checked the cable/national news stations.... baw! Daro! YERCH! I would like to appologise to the rest of the world for ruining the evening news with our soap opera. What has this to do with gold? Just this: look not to the TV news when you desire to learn the important matters of our times, gold included, they're much too busy preening.

Black Blade

(10/08/2003; 00:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110015)

Weak or Strong Dollar/Euro Currencies? � No The Printing Press is far too active With Plenty of Paper and Ink � Gold and Platinum is Very Rare and comes from Blood, Sweat and Tears (Back Breaking Work)

An interesting question. As I understand it � a strong dollar is when few dollars are available making it more desirable as a reserve currency while a weak dollar is a currency that is so abundant that there is more available than can be absorbed efficiently. The Federal Reserve is printing more dollars than ever before in history I order to spark inflation (or reflation � choose your favorite term). The "currency war" is raging between the major trading blocks for a weaker currency in order to have a competitive edge for a shrinking global consumer base. Quite ironic isn't it? We want a weak dollar for our US based manufacturers can compete against a weak Yen and a weak Euro. How can I end? � Very badly I think.

As more paper currencies are created out of thin air based on "faith and credit" according to the US government whatever the hell that means. People are losing faith in the dollar and there is no credit as the US is in technical default � that is bankruptcy as the "is legal tender for all debts public and private" though these debts tat the US is responsible for are unsustainable and will never ever be paid off. All these statements are in quotes on every Federal Reserve Note. It is obvious why on the reverse side of the Federal Reserve Note it states "In God We Trust". Certainly we cannot ever trust the government as these sociopaths who run the government such statements are meaningless. It's far from over too. The Japanese just raised the debt ceiling limit by $200 billion for the express purpose to keep buying US debt and selling Yen. Keep an eye out for the following Treasury Auctions this week. In the last few months Japan has bought well over another $100 billion of US debt � is that fear or just mere survival for a nation without natural resources that must buy raw material abroad to assemble in Japan to make trinkets fir sale abroad? In China the Yuan is pegged to the dollar at a ridiculously low rate with 1.3 billion willing low wageworkers. In Euroland? Oh my, Euroland! ECB president Duisenberg must be one very happy retiree right about now. They may be able to trade among each other for a time but eventually it will catch up to them as well as they too are in competition with the Far East.

The rumors are flying in some circles though few want to come right out and say it. But the Peoples Bank of China is very secretive. The rumors for the last few years has been that the major buyer of the BoE gold auction was China through an LBMA proxy buyer and mush of the Swiss gold sales has headed east as well. After all, how much US and EU debt are they really going to hold and for how long? They like Japan are so top-heavy in this debt they are quietly buying gold and platinum. China has/had a deal with Harmony Gold for a portion of their gold production and presumably with other producers as well. Another question is how much more paper gold they hold. Yesterday we learned that there was a lot of physical buying in Singapore, Thailand, Japan, and even in the Middle East. The wealth of gold and platinum is heading out from west to east. Who can blame them? The current account deficit has to go somewhere � but dollars and euros? With US and Euro inflation sweeping over the horizon like the hoards of Genghis Kahn the new Great Wall of China this time may be made of Gold and Platinum. Unfortunately for Japan it may be much too late. But what to do with all this US debt except keep buying more to have a weak Yen for a slight competitive edge in the global export market. Other Asian banks that have acknowledged buying gold or have been rumored to be buying gold are the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. While Wall Streeters dismiss gold, silver, and platinum, these bankers have been ready and willing to relieve the western bankers in exchange for hard assets.

In the end, the US will have a weaker dollar, Euroland will have a weaker Euro, Japan will have pretty wall paper � worthless but "pretty", and the other Asian currencies will have strong currencies with growing hard assets with growing gold and platinum reserves to back up strengthening currencies. This brings home another point � why now does the Chinese government encourage its citizens to buy gold while western governments , especially Wall Street, attempt to discourage westerners from buying gold,? When it becomes available in currency outlets in China the shelves are quickly stripped bare and there are waiting lists for people wanting to exchange currency for gold and platinum. I think the reason is quite clear. Gold is rare and limited � therefore a very strong currency. The same with dollars � strong when in limited supply but weak when in excess supply like now. In the current "competitive currency devaluation" the dollar/euro weakness will become much more evident while the currency of gold strengths.

- Black Blade

Belgian

(10/08/2003; 02:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110016)

@cockerell - Cavan Man

*Regulations* on goldmining : Any goldmine, anywhere in the world is mining Gold that is priced (not valued) in that same dollar-currency. In other words, they are mining dollar-confetti through the Gold-intermediaire !!!
Goldminers don't dig for Gold Wealth... BUT FOR DOLLARS !

All these mines remain profitable for as long as the currency of their mining-costs remains lower than the dollar (not the Gold) that they are mining !!!

The South African rand against the dollar is the one and only factor that decides on how much Gold can be mined profitably. Can you imagine what the Gold bonanzas are in other African (Russian-Chinese-many other places) Gold regions, where the local currency is worth less than the paper it is printed on !? Thousands of tonnes of Gold are being (have been) "plundered" from so many places where people (miners) still live in the stone era.

Ford Belgium will move its factories to Turkey. The cars will be produced at a fraction (!!!) of their Belgian cost and Ford will cash "all" the "profits" that lay between the turkish lira and euro or other strong (?) currency. Thousands of redundant workers will be "re-cycled" into a service-industry. Whatever this notion of service-industry might mean, today.

The above "unbalance" or better "exploitation" is of all times and places. It is purely currency-system related. Emphasis on "system" ! The "wealth" goes to those who have the power to impose that system on others who are and remain powerless.

It is because of the very existance (survival) of such currency systems that taxes can be collected without protest. A currency is depreciated as to initiate economic activity and once things are rolling, taxes take away the prosperity that was started. But this revolving system can only keep on rolling with more debt. Five new debt-dollars must be introduced into the system for having it advanced with only one of that same debt-dollar.

It is very understandable that nobody even dares to think about the possibility that the planet's dollar-DEBT-system would, could possibly collapse ! That's WHY nobody, repeat NOBODY, gives one nanosecond of attention to the ECB's "mark to market" principle of its goldreserves !
So be it. Amen

DummyANI

(10/08/2003; 02:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110017)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM

silvercollector

(10/08/2003; 04:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110018)

Dollar hurting & California smurking

Dollar flirting with support at 91.79 & Arnold is the new man.

Things are getting beyond bizarre.

Belgian

(10/08/2003; 05:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110019)

@ ALL....

After some hesitation, I would like to recommand the reading/study of Alex Wallenwein's article at the neighbours ! Brilliant, ...Outstanding piece of updated, modern GOLD-Education !!! So very simple and true. THE essence of Gold, understandable for each and everyone.
Happy reading to all.

goldengal

(10/08/2003; 07:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110020)

@BlackBlade

Excellent post #10015..imho you are right on the button.

steady

(10/08/2003; 08:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110021)

abortion

the ecoism embreo has been aborted!
latter and good bye!

Caradoc

(10/08/2003; 09:00:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110022)

Black Blade's msg#: 110015

Magnificent post!! This post belongs in the Hall of Fame. Future historians will owe a debt to this forum for distilling the "best of the best" and putting it all in one place. Message 110015 qualifies as documenting what was knowable back in October of 2003 when the world had begun a major change while most remained ignorant of what was happening around them.

Thank you, Black Blade!

Caradoc

The CoinGuy

(10/08/2003; 09:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110023)

Russia Looking to Price Oil in Euros

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/energy_russia_euro_1.htmlYEKATERINBURG, Russia, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Russia is increasingly looking at pricing oil sales in euros instead of dollars, reflecting the euro's growing role as a reserve currency, German government sources said on Wednesday.

Comment: None really needed, just another step on the trail.

Better Get your physical while it's still affordable,

The (physical) CoinGuy

The CoinGuy

(10/08/2003; 09:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110024)

Russian Oil Story

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/energy_russia_euro_2.htmlWell that was the quickest rewrite I have ever seen.

snippit:

Reuters
Russia official-"can't confirm" euro oil price plan
Wednesday October 8, 11:02 am ET

MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A Russian Energy Ministry official said on Wednesday he could not confirm a report that the government was considering proposals to price oil deals in euros instead of dollars.

Can't confirm eh? I'm just waiting for official denial, to confirm this for myself. Glad I kept the original story in it's entirety.

The CoinGuy

Gandalf the White

(10/08/2003; 09:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110025)

That "STRONG" US$ sure looks "weak" to the Hobbits !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Dive Dollar, Dive!
I wonder why the Japanese think that they can buy enough to save the Yen ?
Should not they also be buying PHYSICAL gold, like Mrs. Yamamoto (and Mrs. ANI)!
<;-)

Gene

(10/08/2003; 10:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110026)

TownCrier

Thanks. I have always been confused in comparing
troy to averdupoise(sp).

Renny

(10/08/2003; 10:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110027)

Nobel prize?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031008/ts_nm/nobel_economics_dc_4snippet:

"Investors and financial institutions need forward-looking
evaluation -- forecasts -- of volatility during the next
day, week or year. Robert Engle formulated a model which
allows such evaluations," the Academy said.

silvercollector

(10/08/2003; 10:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110028)

Renny

I just saw that story as well. Headline News describes it as "American and Briton win Nobel prize for economics".

Isn't that a hoot!

Pizz

(10/08/2003; 11:12:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110029)

Your California - Argentina comparison regarding bond defaults got me thinking.

As I recall, weren't there claims that the well to do and the corporations had the ability (knowledge and connections???) to get their money out of the country before the collapse?

Not only do we hear everyday about the wealthy and companies moving out of California, what about all the jobs and companies bailing out of the US.

I venture to think that sometime in the not so distant future, there are going to be quite a few millions within this country that are going to be just a bit upset that the rich and the corporations got out while the dollar was still fairly strong or were able to buy gold as cheap as it is right now.

While the whole country is focused upon the unemployment rate and the fact that a few million jobs have gone overseas, I'm just a bit worried that the amount of capital that has left and is still leaving under the guise of a desperate administration and their Enron style statistics.

Right now I can think of a lot more reasons to move money off shore than invest capital within the US.

As we spiral down, the next step for government will be to regroup and retrench. I feel that they will shortly pull support from the stock market in a last ditch attempt to save the bond market and keep interest rates from spiking. I don't think there's enough capital left, or enough coming in to keep all the bubbles floating. I'd venture to say there may not be enough for any type of soft landing either.

Hard to keep perspective when you're in the middle of the action. . . Could this be a headline in the not so distant future???

"Government Rigged the Numbers While the Rich Bailed Out"

Gold lookin' better and better. . .

Pizz

cockerel1

(10/08/2003; 11:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110030)

Is this a case of "The blind leading the blind?"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031007/financial_accounting_thinktank_3.html

Reuters
3 big U.S. companies finance accounting think tank
Tuesday October 7, 11:58 pm ET

NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Three of the country's largest companies are funding an academic center to improve standards for accounting and stock research, hot button issues that have dogged all of corporate America.

Columbia University's business school launched the center with grants from investment bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD - News), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM - News) and General Electric Co's (NYSE:GE - News) GE Foundation.

The Center for Excellence in Accounting and Security Analysis, being chaired by former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (News - Websites) Chairman Arthur Levitt, will examine some of the same corporate governance and accounting concerns that GE, IBM and Morgan Stanley themselves have been touched by.

"We will follow the basic concepts of independent academic endeavors," Stephen Penman, an accounting professor at Columbia and co-director of the center, told Reuters.

The plan is to "identify who in the world are the best minds in these areas, assemble them into a project team and thrash it out."

Trevor Harris, who heads Morgan Stanley's global valuation and accounting team for equity research, will also co-direct the center.

Members of the advisory board include Sallie Krawcheck, chief executive of Citigroup's (NYSE:C - News) Smith Barney unit; John Biggs, former chief executive of pension manager TIAA-CREF; and Phil Ameen, GE's controller.

Dozens of companies have been probed for accounting practices and face allegations of securities fraud during the last two years .

Some of the highest profile scandals have involved false accounting charges at energy trader Enron Corp. (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News), telecommunications company Worldcom Inc. (Other OTC:WCOEQ.PK - News), cable television provider Adelphia Communications Corp. (Other OTC:ADELQ.PK - News) and others.

Morgan Stanley was one of 10 investment banks that signed a $1.4 billion settlement with securities regulators over allegations that research was tainted to help win investment banking business from corporate clients.

Chief Executive Philip Purcell was forced to apologize to SEC Chairman William Donaldson for remarks reported in the New York Times that made light of the research settlement.

Also, some of IBM's accounting practices have come under scrutiny. In June, the company said that the SEC had begun a formal investigation of how it accounted for some revenue in 2000 and 2001.

When asked if there would be a conflict if the findings of the center went against the commercial interests of the center's founding financers, Penman said, "That is not a concern."

"As with the funding of any academic center in a university, the independence is maintained. It could be that the center's project teams may reach conclusions that are not consistent with their interests."

He declined to say how much IBM, GE and Morgan Stanley contributed to get the center started.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/08/2003; 12:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110031)

Buy bullion at 1% over our cost, free shipping on 25 oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Paper Avalanche

(10/08/2003; 12:09:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110032)

Quid Pro Quo, Clarisse.......

To quote Hannibal the cannibal.

Note that this morning Russia announces (and then immediately retracts) their desire to price oil in Euro per Yahoo news.

Then this afternoon, by what can only be described as a miraculous coincidence, Bloomberg announces that Moodys has upgarded the debt rating for Russia's national debt.

Coincidence?

Doubt it.

Quid Pro Quo, Clarisse....

What will it cost next time to keep Russia from formalizing the Euro as the successor international oil currency?

Stay tuned.

Paper Avalanche

Subcomandante Tomas

(10/08/2003; 13:07:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110033)

@Belgian on the rightful price of gold

Thanks Belgian for your response yesterday.

I'd be curious to hear what you and others think is the rightful price of gold and how one might calculate it.

@steady: I didn't get the whole ecoism thing.

Federal_Reserves

(10/08/2003; 14:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110034)

Mortgage Applications down 38% YOY

WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 8, 2003)-- The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3. The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications�a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings�increased by 15.6 percent to 817.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 707.2 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased by 15.7 percent compared with last week and was down 38.5 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

Rimh

(10/08/2003; 14:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110035)

cockerell - accounting think tank

Thanks for posting the article! That's what I love about this forum - lots of useful and interesting reading that I would never find on my own.

I'm a bit cynical on this one because how biased is the information coming out of a group like this going to be? Are the Big 3 who support it going to actually take their advice? I suspect they will only take the advice that does not significantly affect the bottom line. It is probably more an attempt to show the public some effort to improve the system, some "window dressing".

The companies involved in the accounting fraud and biased research knew exactly what they were doing, that it was ethically wrong and yet proceeded to do it. What is some "think tank" going to do to change that? And since the regulators are unwilling to discipline those who do it, other than a slap on the wrist, companies will do it again.

MK - What can Arne' do? Will he have the courage to make the tough decisions that will surely have some fallout with the populace, but in the end get California back on its feet? Will the "Oracle of Omaha" have the solutions? While I admire Mr. Buffet's tremendous business sense, I wonder if Arnold will be able to stand up to the flack that he will receive when Buffet's recommended changes start to take place as most folks are resistant to changes, especially financial ones. It will be a long uphill battle for those two at best. While I think Arnold may be better than the alternative (ol' what's his name), it will interesting to see how the rookie politician and the oracle fare over the next year or so.

Pizz - good point. Will Arnold be able to convince business leaders and the rich to come back to California? Jobs and capital that are already offshore will not likely return for a long time either. Time will tell....

Renny

(10/08/2003; 14:22:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110036)

silvercollector

Yes, that is a hoot. It had me puzzled. If this work they
did was so good, why are things in such a mess today?
Somebody missed the (gold) boat somewhere.

renny

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/08/2003; 14:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110037)

Page Update!

Gondolin

(10/08/2003; 17:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110038)

Belgian, Gold in other currencies

Belgian, I enjoy all your posts as with many others,and try to make a point of reading every post on a daily basis. Hope that conveys how valuable I consider the input and contributions of all (yess, you too Sssmeagol!!)

A topic I have seen discussed previously at the table, but upon which I would appreciate any comments or associated links.

While the POG in US dollars is certainly appreciating and Gold is displaying all the characteristics of being in a Bull Market, many have noted that the same cannot be said for the POG when measured in other currencies as they appreciate against the greenback, notably the AUD, NZD,CAD, Rand and obviously the euro.

Can anyone foresee when this will change? Guess thats the million dollar question.

Belgian, I know you have discussed this in detail previously, and thanks also for the recommendation today to the link from Wallenwein, who was inciteful as ever.

His comments about the perception of the value of gold vs the value of paper:

snip

'Gold is the mountain. Fiat-money is the hiker.

Those of us who are writing about gold should form a "cartel" of our own. We should "conspire" to speak the truth, and no longer refer to a "rising gold price" or a falling gold price" - but only to a rise or fall of paper money. How would that change people's perceptions?'

end snip

This comment which follows wonderfully along the whole premise of the Gold Trail almost answers my question that I posed. Perhaps that comment should be awarded a position of honour somewhere??

However, rambling on, and sounding to myself somewhat having taken a step backward in my grasp of economics following my grasp of the big picture with my last comment, I can not quite get my head around why the dollar, albeit the Reserve Currency, so unfairly dominates the value of gold in other currencies. If I am purchasing in AUD or GBP, even though they are appreciating against the USD, surely provided POG is appreciating at the same or a greater rate than the dollar is depreciating,Gold is still worth more in the long run when I measure its value in AUD or GBP.

Is this linked somehow to the valuation of the POG to the greenback at $42.222, which is a concept I still fail to quite grasp when POG is $375.00.

Belgian, I suspect /feel another description of the properties of the measured to the market POG inherent in the euro coming here?

Is this, as Another, FOA and yourself have so convincingly evoked, the key to the issue I have somehow tried to pen here?

Any comments welcome.

Belgian

(10/08/2003; 17:29:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110039)

@comandante

About your, mine and our question-guess about Gold's probable price in the future. We are all repeatedly asking the wrong question ! We better shouldn't worry about Gold's "VALUE" that is eternal and ask in what currency Gold will be priced and what will be the value of that currency in quantity of Gold.

Simplier : How much Gold will we get per dollar or euro ?
(reread Alex Wallenwein-GE)

My answer : We will get less and less of Gold for a constant depreciating dollar. Today we receive 1 ounce of Gold for 375 dollars and the same ounce of Gold for 315 euro. What does this say about those two currencies (dollar and euro) and what does this say about the value of that same ounce of Gold !?

Answer : Gold remains the same valuable that it has always (5,000 years) been and it is the currencies that are depreciating ($) or appreciating (euro and other)!

Since the US is still officially pricing its goldreserves at 42$/ounce and Gold on the market demands 375$/Oz,...we have a confusing problem here about the valuation of the dollar against Gold. This problem will remain in existance for as long as the gold market remains Unfree.

In this Unfree Gold market, the precious yellow is NOT allowed to value-price the currencies !!!
How can we possibly expect from UNfree Gold that it is going to put a price on the dollar when the present dollar-system is the one who is actually responsible for having UNfree Gold !

Gold is forced to show a falsified price for the dollar reserve and all its derivatives (other currencies).
According to the US treasury, the dollar is still a VERY strong and valuable currency...because one only needs 42 dollars to obtain one ounce of Gold, whilst the market says that one need much more (375$ instead of the official 42$) to get the same ounce of Gold !

The treasury-goldreserves AND the market-Gold prices are shackled and frozen.

If and when Gold can come back into a Free Gold Market...Gold will have the possibility to price, to value all currencies and the old dollar or new euro currency system. The Free Gold Market will then have a perfect Gold pricing mechanism that can move around with all the flexibility that is needed for any currency-system that is suitable for a prosperous global economy.

For the above reasons, I cannot, I don't dare to project any price for any currency vis � vis Gold. I am not the one who decides on the most appropiate artificial value of the present ($) or future (�) reserve currency.

I remain over-confident that my Gold coins will keep having a constant "purchasing power" regardless of what happens to currencies !!! I do prefer to HOLD Gold instead of any currency for that particular reason.

Once Gold can break Free in a Free Gold Market, all currencies will be re-priced as to correct for decades of currency mis-management and artificial, falsified purchasing power.

It is those who will set Gold Free that will have an idea of what the total amount of the reserve currency ($-�-other) will be worth in Gold Wealth. Will the dollar-system survive and/or will it be replaced by another currency taking over the role as reserve ? Or will the dollar decline/crash and cause hyper-price-inflation and remain as reserve currency, for some more time ? Can the Gold (POG) containment go on for ever whilst new growing powers continue to accumulate more Gold reserves and break the dollar-system when it is not functioning anymore ?

I don't know how things will turn out, comandante !!!

But remain convinced that the dollar-system has already been condemned. The date of execution remains unknown. When POG starts to gap strongly...this will signal that the dollar reserve currency system is defaulting and Gold is capable of pricing the dollar at its real remaining value (purchasing power).

Hope this possible answer is not too much confusing and is an understandable theory as to explain WHY a POG projection is extremely difficult >>> impossible on fundamental basis.
TA/TI on POG seems to become more and more unreliable and evidences that the dollar reserve currency is under very tight control-management-containment. I do like these subtle signs of increasing ($) pressures that are building (coiling).

TownCrier

(10/08/2003; 17:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110040)

Longer view for Gondolin

http://www.gold.org/value/markets/images/annual2002c.gifI can offer a couple graphs ready at hand to cast your comment (about gold not appreciating against other currencies) into better perspective.

Granted, these charts only demonstrate the movement in dollars, yen, euro, and Swiss Francs, but I think that if you consider a meaninful timeframe (something larger than a monthlong snapshot) you find that gold is generally moving up nicely even against the AUD, NZD, CAD, and rand, too.

The link above will show you the picture for the year 2002. Then, if you cut and paste the url below, you will get the additional picture of the relative performance for the 2003 timeframe.

http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Wgmc/031006b.gif

R.

(10/08/2003; 18:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110041)

FOA...Major Development!

German Sources Say Russia Might Price Its Oil in
Euros
Combined Reports
YEKATERINBURG, Ural Mountains -- Russia is increasingly looking at pricing oil sales
in euros instead of dollars, reflecting the euro's growing role as a reserve currency,
German government sources said Wednesday.

"The question is taking on increasing significance," a person travelling with German
Chancellor Gerhard Schr�der on an official visit to Russia said.

A switch into euros by Russia, the second-biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia and
holder of the world's largest natural gas reserves, would represent a major shift in the
balance of currencies behind the world's most traded commodity.

European leaders have long expressed interest in seeing energy contracts priced in
euros rather than dollars to promote the currency and boost price stability in the
European Union.

Most energy contracts are settled in dollars, meaning that for European buyers, trade in
gas and oil is subject not only to fluctuations in their market prices but also to variations
in the value of the U.S. currency. In 1999, just after Vladimir Putin became prime
minister, he laid out a proposal to move Russia's trade out of dollars and into euros.

A Russian Energy Ministry official said he could not confirm the report. "We cannot
confirm this information. No talks are taking place on the issue. The ministry draws up
export timetables, but does not deal with financial issues on oil supplies," the source
said. (Reuters, MT)

Paper Avalanche

(10/08/2003; 18:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110042)

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the end of the dollar

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/09/047.htmlBelieve it or not, I got this link from the Drudgereport.

IMNSHO, I interpret this to mean that the transition from the dollar to gold as the world reserve asset is going main stream.

I would expect that an announcement by China that individual investors can participate in the Shanghai Gold Exchange to follow within 6-12 months. That will be the final nail in the dollar coffin.

Take care all.

PAPER AVALANCHE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Paper Avalanche

(10/08/2003; 18:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110043)

This also on Drudge - but take it with a grain of salt...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/webquote.dll?iPage=qdext&Symbol=$US:INDUSetting the stage?

Don't know.

Take care.

PA

Smeagol

(10/08/2003; 19:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110044)

$42? Why?

@ Belgian
(with a smile and bow to Gondolin)

We doesn't see how the resst of the world could be sso hypnotized by the "Official" US price of $42 an ounce. What is that but a relic, since no one (or if so
who?) has the priviledge of exchanging dollars for It at that price. Or is there ssomething we doesn't know, or something else in the works? The Higher Ups certainly know what's going on with the dollar, sso, why would they hang onto this number? It would be nice to think the US is letting everyone buy It, then when the paper dollar is finally gone to ashes, they'll raise it to $50 an ounce and let Eagles fly at last?

yah... Ssssure... ssss... am I awake or dreaming?

S.

steady

(10/08/2003; 19:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110045)

belgian

how ironic . i was thinking along those same lines.today but obvioulsy not with the clarity you just provided !
what im wondering is when the dollar convertability relative to gold gets to zero.
the way i decided to keep track was to keep track of how much gold ,valued in grams, 1 federal reserve note will get u.

also maybe u can explain the world wide deception that there is no united states dollar yet every financial reporter\ magazine /publication tells the wold about a strong dollar or the falling dollar or the rising dollar or in my case the fing worthless dollar cause there is no such thing anymore. take a federal reserve note and examine it. notice how they just print the united states of america on it, so u imply that is an american dollar but it aint its still a federal reserve note not a united startes dollar, then on the back they put them same words the united states of america, whats that about? more words to get u to imply that yes indeed this is an authentic american dollar. well im telling you and the world it aint. no such thing, they are federal reserve notes.
when will the media hav e the de gaull to tell the truth! since jane and john doe have decided to abdicate there ability to conceptualize and theorize as well as actually think for themselvs and take action, to the government spin doctors who will tell them what they want them to belive thru there various psychological methods (t.v. channel GE {cnbc},publications , radio,) all at times using unsuspecting individuals who want to climb the corporate ladder and who will do bout anything for the promotion. wonder how many unsuspecting accesories there have been over the past well 32 years since this free floating currency experiment had begun> for when push comes to shove it wont matter what u belive. what will matter is did u get sum?
and people will ask oh where did u get priced in at , oh i got priced in when federal reserve notes where trading for 375 per ounce of that good stuff! where will u get priced in at? 400 450 ? let the paper bury your price deep under more worthless notes!

canamami

(10/08/2003; 19:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110046)

German Sources Say Russia Might Price Its Oil in Euros

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/09/047.html Thursday, Oct. 9, 2003. Page 5

German Sources Say Russia Might Price Its Oil in Euros

Combined Reports YEKATERINBURG, Ural Mountains -- Russia is increasingly looking at pricing oil sales in euros instead of dollars, reflecting the euro's growing role as a reserve currency, German government sources said Wednesday.

............

canamami

(10/08/2003; 19:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110047)

Apologies

I was so excited when I saw it on Drudge, I didn't check to see if anyone else had posted it.

Where is FOA, by the way? Another also?

steady

(10/08/2003; 19:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110048)

opps

i wrote this
also maybe u can explain the world wide deception that there is no united states dollar
but meant this

also maybe u can explain the world wide deception that there is a united states dollar!

who issued it? federal reserve
who is paying intrest on the debt it represents ie whose using it? american taxpayers hahaha!

DummyANI

(10/08/2003; 19:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110049)

@Gandalf the White (10/08/03; 09:54:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110025)

Governor Fukui is a puppet of Wall Street. He has been depreciating a gold value in Japan.

At July 2004, new paper moneys of YEN will be issued by BOJ.

So in a near futures, Japanese households begin to accumulate PHYSICAL gold for an insurance.

D-ANI:

Druid

(10/08/2003; 19:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110050)

Remarks by Ambassador Charles J. Swindells

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/PO0310/S00053.htmRemarks by US Ambassador Charles J. Swindells
Wednesday, 8 October 2003, 4:14 pm
Speech: US Embassy Wellington

NOTE: The following speech was not in fact delivered today as a group of protestors disrupted the occasion.

U.S. Embassy, Wellington

Remarks by Ambassador Charles J. Swindells

to Vic Univ. Diplomat's Series � Noon, October 8, 2003
From: http://wellington.usembassy.gov/AmbSpeech.pdf
Thank you.

Let me begin by stating that I understand all too well that there are people � probably some of you here today � who disagree with various policies and actions of the U.S. in recent times. I'm here today to try to explain some of those policies, and perhaps correct some misconceptions.

Druid: Interesting speech that was not given. Doing our best to make friends everywhere we go.

Druid

(10/08/2003; 19:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110051)

Japan Urged Not to Meddle In US-Korea Nuke Talks

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0310/S00071.htmSnippit

Japan Urged Not to Meddle in Any Negotiations to Solve Nuclear Issue
Pyongyang - A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry said in a statement today that the DPRK would not allow Japan to participate in any form of negotiations for the settlement of the nuclear issue in the future.

Referring to the fact that the Japanese authorities are persistently attempting to use the nuclear issue between the DPRK and the U.S. for their selfish purpose, he said: Lurking behind this is a black-hearted intention of the present Japanese rulers to save Japan from economic depression and achieve the stability of their office by making its domestic policy veer to the right and stepping up its militarization under the pretext of the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula.

The Japanese authorities' much publicized "issue of abduction" was already settled with the adoption of the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration. There is neither ground nor base for them to link it to the nuclear issue. Their row only renders the nuclear issue more complicated.

Druid: Politically, things are looking up in Japan.

Cavan Man

(10/08/2003; 19:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110052)

canamami

Beginning shortly after the inception of the Euro, Russia began receiving a small Euro contribution to every barrel sold.

Druid

(10/08/2003; 19:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110053)

Enron E-mails Confirm Schwarzenegger-Ken Lay Meeting

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0310/S00064.htmEnron E-mails Confirm Schwarzenegger-Ken Lay Meeting

Enron E-Mails Show Arnold Met With Ken Lay During Energy Crisis
Santa Monica, CA -- Internal Enron e-mails confirm that Arnold Schwarzenegger was among a small group of executives who met with Lay at the posh Peninsula Beverly Hills hotel in May of 2001, in the midst of California's energy crisis. The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights, which obtained the e-mails, is calling on Schwarzenegger to acknowledge the meetings and disclose the information that was presented and discussed. The meeting with Enron occurred ten days after rolling blackouts darkened California for two consecutive days; Schwarzenegger has previously said that he does not remember such a meeting.

"You don't meet with America's most well-known corporate crook in the middle of California's biggest financial disaster and not remember," said FTCR's senior consumer advocate Douglas Heller. "Mr. Schwarzenegger should come clean about what happened at that meeting and if he shares Ken Lay's views on energy regulation."

Druid: Its like having front row tickets to a freak show playing out in real time.

Druid

(10/08/2003; 20:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110054)

Security Council Disagrees Over Israel Air Strike

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/WO0310/S00060.htmSyria Asks Council to Condemn Attack; Israel Says Attack Response for Islamic Jihad's Bombing in Haifa

The Security Council met in an emergency session this afternoon, at Syria's request, following an Israeli air strike against that country earlier today.

The Israeli air strike fell near a Syrian village, Ain Al Sahib, to the north-west of the capital of Damascus. The strikes followed the suicide bombing yesterday at a restaurant in the seaside town of Haifa, Israel, which killed 19 Israelis.

Syria's representative condemned the air strike, and he tabled a resolution that would have the Council do the same. He said the act of aggression was a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter, of international law, and of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Syria and Israel, as well as a clear manifestation of an Israeli policy based on aggression and lack of respect for agreements.

Targeting a Syrian village was further proof that the massacres committed by Israel on the pretext of fighting so-called terrorism reflected a big lie, used to justify a policy of colonialism and settlement-building. That policy was in violation of all the principles of peace and security on which the United Nations was founded, and ran counter to the peace process started in Madrid in 1991.

Calling Israel's reprisals for the attack in Haifa "repugnant", several speakers from neighbouring Arab countries suggested that the air strike, in the context of an already shaky peace, could return the region to war and imperil international peace and security. Some said the armed reprisal was disproportionate and had proceeded from a political desire to destroy the peace process, illegally expand the conflict zone, and destabilize the entire region.

Druid: Man! Things are just getting out of control.

RAP

(10/08/2003; 21:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110055)

New lows for dollar

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Rimh: The "think tank" isn't there to fix problems, it's there to keep them from getting caught next time.

Druid

(10/08/2003; 21:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110056)

Clif Droke's Latest

Druid: Has anyone else read Clif Droke's latest reference "The coming currency devaluation?" There is some serious speculation reference bullion ownership.

Pizz

(10/08/2003; 22:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110057)

A Little Practical Advice

This may be considered by some as a bit of a rant, and I'm not going to go into a lot of detail into what I say, but I'm going to summarize quite a bit.

You may read, listen, and debate all kinds of micro, nit-picky BS right along with all the other BS coming out of the mainstream press, but I want you to think, and to think with the knowledge that over 90% of what you hear, see, and read is the direct result of someone elses personal, vested interest into putting money into thier own personal pockets at your expense. (the 10% exception is for the few of us here, and elsewhere, our host included).

Now for a few macro facts. . .

The United States cannot continue to run deficits in either trade or budgets indefinately. The dollar has started and will continue to crash. There is no end in sight - period.

As the dollar drops, and our creditors stop funding our spendthrift ways, interest rates have to go up. When interest rates increase, every marginal leveraged business is going to first cut employment to the bone, then, for the most part, will go under. There is no foundation for any kind of economic expansion. The people of this country cannot service enough more debt to maintain our GNP, just as this country will not be able to service the debt we already have, let alone the unfunded liabilities promised.

Stop and think. How may rich, well off people do you know with the bulk of their assets locked into real estate and 401K's. If the pervervial crap hits the fan, how do the middle class liquidate and move their money into safe havens? The simple answer is that they can't. When the economy gets worse ( and it will unless someone can show me anywhere in history where any civilization has borrowed their way into prosperity) how do the middle class relocate for better employment or opportunities when their entire net worth (if any) is oversubscibed by debt?

It appears to me that with the major corporations moving both production and operations overseas, along with capital, that the handwriting is already on the wall.

Does anyone actually think that there are enough resources available for the bulk of the world's population to have any kind of standard of living equivalent to the US (or for that matter Europe and few other countries with free enterprise). Well the PTB seem to have this figured out pretty well, and I seem to think that there is gong to be a little bit of spreading the wealth so to speak.

AS CURRANCIES READJUST, THOSE THAT INCREASE UP THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING, AND THOSE THAT DECREASE TEND TO LOSE THEIRS. AND THE ONES THAT INCREASE OVER THE WORLD AVERAGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED (the Euro will be a good example). EVERTHING EVENTUALLY REVERTS TO THE MEAN.

Now, as all monetary instraments revert to the mean, just what do you think is going to be the standard? Well, if you guess gold and silver, you have about 5000+ years of history on your side. It's that damn simple.

I'd venture to guess that there is no one out there reading this that doesn't have the ability to cut 10% or more out of their own personal expenditures to protect what they may have. It doesn't matter whether you can scrape up an extra 50 or 100 bucks a month, but you can if you try and you can invest it into something of value that you can control.

Start buying a bit of protection, or increase what you have, because this fiat house of debt and derivative cards is not anything I'm going to build any type of future with, and if anyone thinks otherwise stop and think a bit. Just what the heck is it going to be worth in 10 years?

It all starts with a coin or two, and if you can't afford gold, try silver - as Rich says, you get more weight for the buck.

It's that darn serious, and the last time I checked, MK does have a small order desk. . .

Pizz

GratefulForGold

(10/08/2003; 22:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110058)

steady @misc. messages

I have been playing the usual "catch up" (of a few days) of late. I do remember seeing your post on "ecosim" (whatever that is). My problem with reading your posts was quite simple: your "form." This may or may not be my problem and not yours.

I tend to read posts that are written in an easily read format. I tend to read posts that don't use "u" for "you," etc. I tend to read posts that have good spelling and grammar (although I make allowances where I recognize that English is not someone's first language). I tend to read posts that are broken down in proper paragraphs and therefore easier to read.

When I first saw your "ecoism" concept I was interested. I just couldn't wade through your form of writing.

I am STILL interested in your concept. If you believe in your concept enough to take your former posts and re-write them in a different way that would entice me to read them -- I'd love to read and consider your concepts!

Lady GFG

GratefulForGold

(10/08/2003; 23:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110059)

Smeagol (many posts)

Just a quick note to thank you for the remembrances of The Lord of the Rings! Your posts always bring a smile. Although I haven't read Tolkein's books since the 70's (I've bypassed the media versions), your posts have inspired me to go dig my Tolkein books out of storage and re-read them!

Thanksss, my preciouses!

Lady GFG

Great Albino Bat

(10/08/2003; 23:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110060)

Something some might want to consider...

The GAB recently read a report that probably a few here also saw and read. It's about the financial condition of the average American.

GAB did not memorize the statistics presented, but what was most interesting, is the amount of money Americans spend "eating out". Something like $2,300 dollars a year.

Also, "communications" came in about $950 dollars a year.

Suggestion for those convinced they better prepare for Godawful times:

Do not eat out! Stop that expensive habit. Cook your own meals, and learn to make them tasty. Save that money and BUY GOLD!

Cancel your Cable T.V. (For entertainment, read. Don't buy new books. Buy used books!) Cut down on phone calls to the very bone. Cancel your cellular unless it's a deductible expense and indispensable for earning bread. Just gabbing with friends: you can't afford it! Save the money and BUY GOLD!

Internet expenses: cut back, cut back, cut back! Peek into this Forum for a short while, maximum, and you'll know all you need to know. Cut connection charges to the bone.

There are many, many opportunities to reduce expenses and BUY GOLD!

"Fuzzy" thinking: "Well, what's life for if not to be enjoyed?" OK, go ahead, but if you think this way, you will regret it deeply in the near future.

The U.S. has been a Fool's Paradise. Take action while you still have an opportunity. Conditions are about to change, and will become unbelievably bad!

The GAB once visited a slaughterhouse. Cattle have no idea what's going on until they get it in the neck. Ditto for sheep. But, the poor piggies catch on immediately! They are much smarter animals! They are scared as hell as soon as they are on the premises of the slaughterhouse, because they realize what's coming. Very impressive visit, indeed!

Be smarter than the pigs. Don't wait until you are in the slaughterhouse! That's too late. ACT NOW!

PIZZ: I stand by all you have written. Most people have no idea of how bad things are going to get; "some people learn from reading; others learn from friends' advice; and the rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves".

LADY GRATEFUL: Amen! I am sorry to say I must scroll by the contributions of some posters, as indecipherable. As you say, the thinking MAY be there, but - try and make it easier for your readers, friends!

ALL: the GAB informs you, that his friend with an allocated gold deposit at UBS, Zurich, reports that after 32 days of delays, his order for a transfer of physical was finally carried out. No explanation given for the extraordinary delay.

The GAB

Rimh

(10/09/2003; 00:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110061)

Rap

Almost fell off my chair laughing! You nailed it, friend!

Goldendome

(10/09/2003; 00:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110062)

Foreigner to request foreign aid for California!

Yesterday, (Wednesday) the Governor elect of California expressed his desire to meet with the U.S. President, to discuss the possibility of Federal assistance in overcoming California's huge budget deficit.

Good! Glad to see that! At first though, I thought-Geeza Louisa- here we go with another bailout attempt. And this time for a profligate group of politicians that have spent money over the past decade at a much faster rate than they could bring it in, even during the dot-com boom. But there's nothing new there...The federal congress has been doing that for decades. The poor politicos out here in the states are just disadvantaged in not being able to conterfeit their own dollars.

Who better to see though, if you really need a lot of money, than the man figuratively, anyway, in charge of the printing presses? So, alot of other states have deficits too. You have a money problem in California--send money. Problems in Texas--send money...Illinois...Pennsylvania, on down the line---send money!

The United States seems to have limitless amounts of money to ship all over the world. Iraq, immediately comes to mind. Egypt and Israel are also high on the list of recipients of billions and billions over the years. Why not spread this thin air created largess around this country also? If we can spend billions on countries that don't amount to a thimble full of anything but trouble, certainly, we should be able to help reserect or engage in "State Building" for the fifth largest world economy (California).

What a wonderful Christmas gift to America if the U.S. Congress should pass legislation giving away, say, $100 billion to the states. What surer way to ingratiate themselves to each one of us grateful tax-payers?

The money is after all just a few mouse clicks away from your state! One of the wonderful things about this plan would be the fact that it is SO easy to do. No one should say or do anything against it. [Who's going to say,no, to the gift horse.] After all, The Japanese and Chinese are so intent on selling real goods for dollars, that they will take all we create! There should be no problem with this plan, as fiscal pain will be relieved throughout the country; foreigners will ultimately get what they covet most--dollars.

We here at the forum should be able to smile and wink at one another; we got the Gold, they won't be "making" anymore of that. They can just pump and spend-and borrow-and spend-and...spend-and ..spend...

Gdome

Gandalf the White

(10/09/2003; 00:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110063)

OOPS !!! There goes the US$ to NEW LOWS for this last five years !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0What is that "song and dance" -- "HOW LOW CAN YOU GO ?"
This has GOT to be GOOD for GOLD !
At $380+ we see the ROCKET appear on the P&F chart !
<;-)
<;-)

Belgian

(10/09/2003; 01:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110064)

@ Gondolin

The US$ is the planet's reserve currency. That means that the US$ is * THE standard * to wich all other currencies do refer for their valuation. Since 3/4 of world trade is done in US$, because it is the reserve currency, we all "have to" accept the dollar's importance and we "have to" comply with the dollar-system.

This dollar-system has been growing/evolving for many decades. In this dollar-system, Gold always played a role.
Gold's role "changed" over these decades...and is in the process of changing "again". Study the history of the dollar-system and Gold...and the possible future of Gold might become a bit clearer.

As long as the dollar-system exists and functions, all other currencies have to keep accepting the dollar as their standard.

Time has come that many want to "seriously" break away (break free) from this all embracing dollar-system.
They want to break free THROUGH GOLD !!! They want to liberate Gold from the dollar's Guantanamo.

They : The euro in the first place and all those who realize that the dollar-system is NOT working for them.

Taking or bringing Gold into a Free Gold Market is a relatively new "concept". This is a major operation that cannot happen overnight and needs carefull preparation.

This is happening NOW !!!

Most of us are beginning to SUFFICIENTLY understand what the present Unfree Gold means. Gold, the physical metal, is prisoned into an artificial paper gold market at the dollar's system's service. Unfree Gold in a dollar dominated paper gold market IS the dollar's one and only force left.

But there MUST be an alternative to this dollar-system (not the dollar as ordinary currency) !!!
And for as long as there is no dollar-alternative, all currencies and their respective "gold-worth" must remain in line *with* the dollar-master.
Never throw your old shoes away before having new ones...or you will walk on bare feet !

Back to your POG expressed in the different currency-prices.
These different POGs simply reflect the exchange rate of all those currencies against the dollar's worth in Gold.
The (present) dollar-system is NOT allowing other currencies (than the dollar) to let Gold say what the currency is really worth !

It is exactly this system that will change : GOLD will tell the whole world, what your, mine, their, our currency is "REALLY" worth ! How good or bad is your currency expressed in Gold. NOT the dollar but GOLD will become the ultimate standard. That's why we need FREEGOLD. Free from the dollar-system and free to value each and every currency in an objective way.

silvercollector

(10/09/2003; 01:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110065)

Orderly breakdown?

USD bounced off 91.8 twice on Tuesday and bounced off 91.6 twice yesterday. Sliding through 91.39 now; gold up a bit.

Limit up today? Beating tomorrow?

DummyANI

(10/09/2003; 01:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110066)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

silvercollector

(10/09/2003; 01:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110067)

MK, PA

I'm a little suspect of that 'Euro's for oil' article. Why is a German source speaking about Russian purchases?

silvercollector

(10/09/2003; 01:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110068)

Druid

"Its like having front row tickets to a freak show playing out in real time. "

No kidding!!

silvercollector

(10/09/2003; 02:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110069)

Syria/Israel: This thing is about to blow.

http://www.rense.com/general42/syria.htmCan't see anything other than a major conflict in the next few months.

Belgian

(10/09/2003; 02:19:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110070)

WHAT IS FREE GOLD ?

I want GOLD to tell what my currency is worth ! Is my currency as good as Gold...or only half as good...or totally Gold unworthy ?

I do NOT want any other currency telling me what my currency is worth ! Is my currency as good as the dollar...or only half as good...or totally dollar (reserve) unworthy ?

I do NOT want any currency to tell Gold what it is worth !

Let ALL currencies compete for Gold in a Free Gold Market.
A currency meritocraty ! Order in the jungle !

Stop moving in and out this or that currency and let there only be Free movement of Gold into currencies and currencies into Gold .

This can only be achieved if and when the present existing gold paper markets become worthless and Gold is traded in a Physical Only market.

NOT the paper (any paper) telling what is Gold's worth, but Gold telling what the paper is worth ! Turn Gold and paper upside down !

It is against this (A/FOA) background that the euro currency's ambitions to become the new oil-currency, are of such a vital importance. Russia might grab the unique chance to become a future economical power again, when allying with Euroland, AGAIN, after 70 years of organized separation (through two WWs) by the A.A. financiers !

THINGS KEEP ON CHANGING !

cyclist

(10/09/2003; 02:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110071)

Gold in NZD, AUD, CAD etc

http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=AUD&a=1&c=2Following on from the post by Gondolin yesterday regarding the price of gold in terms of some of the commodity currencies. A good site for those wanting to track the price trend of gold and silver in their own currency is the Yahoo Finance international currency section (see link for an example).

For those down under, gold and (particularly) silver look very attractive at these levels.

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/09/2003; 03:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110072)

Smeagol msg#: 110044

Well - since 42 is the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything.
Nemo

Belgian

(10/09/2003; 03:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110073)

@ Druid about Droke's latest.....

...A TWO-TIERED DOLLAR CURRENCY SYSTEM...
...A DOMESTIC CRAYOLA DOLLAR CURRENCY...

And nobody finds this worth any comment ? Strange !

What is the message : To ALL dollar users, outside the US territories...THAT OLD DOLLAR IS YOURS NOW...KEEP ON USING IT...sorry , BUT IT IS WORTHLESS FOR US !!!-???

De Gaulle in the sixties...Nixon in the seventies...is about an outside dollar reserve that was already worthless then !!!

Wonder WHY oil is looking for ANOTHER (hum) currency ?
Wonder WHY many want more of ANOTHER reserve (Gold) than the dollar reserve ?

PUTIN IS IN TALKS WITH WTO !!!

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/09/2003; 04:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110074)

(No Subject)

@Belgian - Druid about Droke's latest A TWO-TIERED DOLLAR CURRENCY SYSTEMAre we talking exchange controls here?

With the coming two-tiered currency system, foreigners will continue to be allowed to use the greenback while U.S. citizens will be stuck with the "crayola currency" which CANNOT BE EXCHANGED.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/09/2003; 04:32:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110075)

2-tier monetry system

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0972416021/qid=1065694979/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_1/104-8772579-7427964?v=glance&s=booksEditorial Reviews
Book Description
Those who cannot imagine that there will be one currency used internally and a different U.S. dollar used externally outside the United States ill need to read Lawrence Patterson's book.
Among other things, you will learn of the super secret currency printing plant set up north of Fort Worth, TX and the ominous way in which this plant is run. The Los Alamos National Laboratory doesn't have anywhere near the security systems. THIS is the plant - - that has printed the MULTICOLORED dollars to be the backbone of the new monetary system.

This new monetary system has been detailed in a Senate Bill S.2158. The bill waits to be passed, at the last moment when it is needed. It is now being ruthlessly put into place by the U.S. Treasury Dept. A BLOCKED CURRENCY is coming - - this is also discussed and explained in detail. This is the system that is used when a country runs out of money and has no alternative but to devalue against those countries to which it is deeply in debt. Chapter 5 discusses IN DETAIL how Americans will be affected by this DUAL CURRENCY SYSTEM.

Leigh

(10/09/2003; 05:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110076)

WAC

Just went to your link for Amazon and looked at the information on Lawrence Parks's book. It is 43 pages long and costs $30! But...it's #1314 on the Amazon hit parade list! THAT is an astonishing feat, when you consider the hundreds of thousands of books (maybe millions) of books they offer.

LOTS OF PEOPLE are reading this book, obviously.

Cavan Man

(10/09/2003; 06:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110077)

More Euro/Oil News

Thursday, Oct. 9, 2003. Page 5

German Sources Say Russia Might Price Its Oil in Euros

Combined Reports YEKATERINBURG, Ural Mountains -- Russia is increasingly looking at pricing oil sales in euros instead of dollars, reflecting the euro's growing role as a reserve currency, German government sources said Wednesday.

"The question is taking on increasing significance," a person travelling with German Chancellor Gerhard Schr�der on an official visit to Russia said.

A switch into euros by Russia, the second-biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia and holder of the world's largest natural gas reserves, would represent a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most traded commodity.

CoBra(too)

(10/09/2003; 07:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110078)

Everything is Blue Skies again in LaLa-Land

Every economist and his brother sees the economy strenghtening. The problems of yesterday miracolously seem to have given in to anewed hope of leaving the recession, once and for all behind. The SM's strong advances in the SM's seem to proving this fact. So all's well in lala-land again.

Amazingly the Greenspan put is working. Credit, which is debit is burgeoning ever more - your government and FED says it's a good thing. The financial perpetuum mobile has finally been discovered. While the natives exchange their greenbacks today to a new blue and pink FRN-note, the bloody foreigners, holding two thirds of the old green notes may play monopoly among themselves. A, and yes Arnie, the Gubernator has been elected the new broom in California.

Any reasons to own gold has been severely vanquished. Or has it? And what else is new? cb2

Paper Avalanche

(10/09/2003; 07:12:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110079)

New $20 FRN

I am going to the bank at lunch today to see if they have the new notes available. I believe that a compelling case can be made for and against bifurcation of the currency. I am leaning more toward the against in that, if I were doing it anyway, that I would need more than just the $20 bill available for distribution and circulation. It does not make sense to me for the $20 to roll out now and then the $50 and $100 bills to roll out in the next year or so. I do not see how this dual currency system, with restrictions on convertability between domestic and international use, can be accomplished gradually.

Having said that, my opinion would change dramatically if the gubmint were to announce over the weekend that a new currency system is now in place and we find on Monday that the $50 and $100 bills have been printed and stand ready for distribution. This makes sense in that to pre-announce that the entire currency was to be revamped at one time would tip the hand of TPTB to let the world, and more importantly the american sheeple, know the intentions of the gubmint.

I also took a close look at the new $20 bill and compared it to a $20 bill that I got out of an ATM this morning. All verbage is the same with one subtle, but possibly important, distinction. There exists a new federal symbol just to the bottom right of the potrait of Andrew Jackson. The symbol appears to be an eagle on top of a shield that is similar to the federal reserve system symbol contained in the circle on the left hand side of the note. This new federal symbol is reminisent of the german eagle atop the swastika in the laurel wreath that was the state emblem during the fascist government of germany during WWII.

Just some thoughts.

PA

Leigh

(10/09/2003; 07:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110080)

Paper Avalanche

Morning, PA! I was thinking about you since today is your BIG DAY!

To anyone: In the Droke article, he talks on and on about taxes and restrictions on gold. He recommends numismatics (I have some). Is there ANYTHING ELSE we can do in advance of all this?

Cor Tauri

(10/09/2003; 07:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110081)

Basil

I saw few answers to your recent questions. They are important questions, and while I am no expert on anything, I will offer my ideas on your questions. It is my hope that if any of my ignorance might misled you, others here will correct my misunderstandings.
re: storage of things
There can be no assurance of safety. Better to count on losing some. Perhaps multiple locations. 1/3 in bank safe deposit box, 1/3 personal residence, 1/3 residence of someone you would trust with your life. If you spread it around, you won't likely keep all of it, but neither will you likely lose all of it. As far as technology... Someone responded with some ideas about dealing with that. Creativity might be well rewarded if it comes to that.
re: this oil/gold/Another concept
I don't presume to speak with authority on this, but ...
Ok, in short:
From Bretton Woods to early 1970's world worked mostly ok
Non-US citizen has dollars? They can exchange for gold at fixed rate. Trade with US, they pay dollars, dollars good as gold, don't believe fine, they will exchange gold for dollars, not $ but the old symbol with two lines through the S.
1971? Nixon suspends, then ends this. Now Trade with US, they pay dollars, dollars can be exchanged for dollars. You could also maybe buy something with the $'s maybe US Treasury obligations or oh wait thats the same thing isn't it?
Lets say you make and sell oil for a living. Are you happy with this deal? No. But do you really want world economic activity to grind to a halt? Everyone needs a deal, they all party in Jamaica, (really) and hash out a deal. Call it an accord and best I can tell it works kindof like this. You sell oil for dollars, everyone buys oil with dollars. The people who need the oil will make it so you can get some gold out of this. There is really no other choice so everyone goes along with this. But some of the parties, while grinding teeth behind smiles decide, "We WILL create an alternative, this shall not stand for ever." Those smiling grinding teeth folks begin planning a common european currency. Ok from 1971 to about 1996 the world works mostly ok. There are some problems in that the US can produce $ for free. I mean we print them, create them, they are free for the US. So US nation essentially gets it's oil for free. But everyone else must use $ to buy oil too. And they don't print them. They have to make stuff, sell it to US for $, and use $ to buy oil. Whole world turns into constant struggle to make stuff to sell to US for the $ to get the oil. There used to be a TV ad in US, I work more, for more money, so I can buy more cocaine, so I can work more. Around 1996 the world entered re-hab. $ re-hab that is. Euro is real now not some plan in the 1970s. Much of the world has seen that $ addiction is very hard on a nations health. Oil producers don't really care what they get for oil, as long as they can get gold with it. (Maybe not all the oil producers, but the ones that matter) The $ timeline is nearing an end. But if that happens, if the US can no longer create the important currency for free, if the US needs to make stuff and sell it to someone for something with which the US can buy oil, well ... then our American way of life will change.
~2001 to current.
There are people whose jobs it is to defend "the American way of Life" They are smart and work hard at their job.
In the long run, what needs to happen for them to accomplish their mission is:
The world has to keep needing the $.
Oil has to remaine priced in $.
IF US was major producer of oil, they could set price in $
How can US become major producer of oil? Acquire proven and probable of course.
In the mean time, while oil is still priced in $, any decline in exchange rate of $ can be corrected by an increase in the price of oil. Dosn't hurt US as a nation as much as it helps, because US makes $ for free. But it will force other oil consumers to purchase more $ to buy the oil they need.
"But why are creditors apparently holding back exchanging these increasing amts of $ confetti for Euros,Gold,Gold Dinar,good farmland--anything"
They probably are. But you and I wouldn't see it happening unless it was already done.
"Is it fear that if they begin dollar dump..." Yes, but probably more than that. The alternative isn't completly ready yet. The Euro is ready, but there is lots more than just the Euro that needs to be on it's spot. The world economy mustn't grind to a halt not even temporarly. "Noone" is certain it could be restarted.
"Why doesn't OPEC want dollar price of oil high as possible as long as possible?"
Well during the peroid ~1973 say mid 70's to 1996 they were afraid the world would find a way of not needing oil. During the 1970's and 80's there was all kinds of talk about alternative resources, renewable this and that. OPEC may have been afraid of pricing themselves right out of a job. (They would have been wrong, but ...) Also they didn't really care about the $ price perhaps but rather the deal under the Jamaica Accord. They were getting gold at a "special" price ever declining in $. The price of oil could remain constant and oil producers would still make more year after year from the same amount of production because the price of gold was declining year after year.
They never wanted the $. They wanted the gold. Now things are somewhat more complicated. Oil producers have proven and probable. Though maybe not as much as they have suggested. They may well be concerned about hostile takeovers. Two of the oil producers seem to have turned to a White Knight so to speak. Iran has for decades I guess maintanted rather close relationships with Russia and prior to that the USSR. Saudi Arabia some time ago requested that all US military leave the kingdom. Recently this has happened. Apparently the Saudis miss the presence of lots of foreign military because the have engaged Russia in discussion about maybe stationing some soldiers in the Kingdom and who knows perhapse even some Topol-Ms. Also they have quietly expressed the desire to purchase military equipment from Pakistan that Pakistan only recently developed. So for right now, it would be somewhat of a surprise if OPEC went wild with the price of oil. They have a lot in the works and probably would like to buy some time. If they jump the price in $ much it would indicate that either the US demanded it, so as to help moderate the decline of the dollar, or that they had concluded some deal or another that enhanced their feelings of security. Once the feel completly secure, they will likely simply change what currency they require.
re: Iraq's oil not getting to market... I had not heard that this might be the intentional work of the US. Who knows. It would seem to me at least that... well I don't know. I will look into that. I would expect that Black Blade has a good understanding of this. I would suggest that the Iraqi infrastructure has been poorly maintaned over the past decade.
Basil, I hope others correct me where I am wrong. And I hope that you pursue a deep understanding of all of this. It is one thing to simply say buy gold, lots of it. But to miss one of the most incredible dramas of human history happening in ones life would be really unfortunate. This is like the fall of Rome occuring in the span of a single lifetime. To watch it, to understand, even if one is a Roman, especially if one is a Roman, is the most incredible show on earth. What is happening now, is, it is astonishing. They will write of this period of human history THOUSANDS of years from now.
All men die, few are witness to great things, and fewer still understand what they have seen.
Keep your eyes open, and a little gold won't hurt, a lot might even help.
Best Regards to you Basil.

Cavan Man

(10/09/2003; 07:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110082)

Currency Recall by Lawrence Patterson

Anyone know where a copy of this monograph can be obtained?

Kilo

(10/09/2003; 07:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110083)

Cavan Man - Currency Recall Link

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0972416021/qid=1065706844/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_1/103-2022242-9819042?v=glance&s=booksHere you go......

cockerel1

(10/09/2003; 07:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110084)

Economy and Employment

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/economy_ceos_outlook_2.htmlReuters
UPDATE - U.S. CEOs see economy gaining steam; jobs less so
Wednesday October 8, 7:24 pm ET
By Jeremy Pelofsky and Tom Johnson

(Adds quotes, details throughout, edits.)
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Most U.S. corporate chieftains see the economy and their businesses on a strong footing next year though they forecast a slow improvement in the employment picture, according to a survey released on Wednesday.

More than half of the chief executive officers quizzed by the Business Council, 55 percent, thought the economy would grow more than 3 percent next year with another 40 percent expecting expansion of 1.6 percent to 3 percent.

Executives also offered an upbeat outlook for their own businesses, with about two-thirds of those surveyed predicting their profit margins would grow in 2004 but their ability to raise prices would still be limited.

"Overall I'd say there is an expectation of a good but not super economy coming in this last quarter and in 2004 with expectations that productivity will continue and that will be a significant driver of profits for these companies," said Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) CEO Franklin Raines who directed the survey.

The U.S. economy has been picking up steam in recent months, growing at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Private economists have predicted that the economy may expand as much as 3.9 percent next year.

But unemployment levels have remained stagnant at 6.1 percent even with 57,000 new non-farm jobs created last month. About 2.6 million jobs have been lost since 2001 and the CEOs did not have particularly good news for those out of work.

They forecast the unemployment rate would hover around 5.8 percent to 6.1 percent at the end of 2003 and fall to 5.1 percent to 5.8 percent next year.

And more than half of CEOs expect that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates next year but only modestly, according to the survey.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates at 45-year lows in hopes that the economy will surge ahead and policymakers have indicated they have no intention of raising rates any time soon.

Executives ranging from General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - News) to Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE:SLE - News) were convening at the posh Greenbrier golf and spa resort in the Allegheny mountains of West Virginia to chew over the latest U.S. outlook, corporate governance and other issues confronting their companies.

The Business Council, made up of about 125 CEOs from a variety of businesses, was established during the Great Depression to advise the government on the economy and social issues.

EMPLOYEE OUTLOOK MURKY

While spending on such items as research and development has increased substantially in recent quarters, U.S. businesses are still taking a tepid approach to opening the purse strings again on such items as inventory or work force expansion.

Companies' cost-cutting measures, such as axing jobs, have been the main force helping expand profit margins in recent quarters. But nearly two-thirds of the executives surveyed now predict they will see sales growth next year as consumer spending continues strong.

One statistic Raines noted that was surprising was almost two-thirds of the CEOs surveyed said they expected job growth at their companies to be stable, and only 14 percent increasing hiring despite their expectations for a better economy.

"It does raise the conundrum of how all those things happen at once," said Raines.

Inventories are also largely expected to remain stable next year, with 21 percent of those surveyed expecting a modest decline, according to the survey.

Three-quarters of the CEOs forecast inflation would be between 1.1 percent and 2 percent in 2004, while 17 percent expected inflation could reach as high as 3 percent.

Another area of particular concern for executives was the federal budget deficit, which has reached some $400 billion and was expected to go higher, which could crowd out private investment spending or push up interest rates.

Raines also warned that the economy cannot continue to rely on American consumers as the economy's driver.

"The consumer, even though they are the biggest part of this economy, can't continue to lead the recovery."

Comment: The last two paragraphs confuse the h*** out of me!

Kilo

(10/09/2003; 07:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110085)

Review snip from "Currency Recall"

Book Description
Those who cannot imagine that there will be one currency used internally and a different U.S. dollar used externally outside the United States ill need to read Lawrence Patterson's book.
Among other things, you will learn of the super secret currency printing plant set up north of Fort Worth, TX and the ominous way in which this plant is run. The Los Alamos National Laboratory doesn't have anywhere near the security systems. THIS is the plant - - that has printed the MULTICOLORED dollars to be the backbone of the new monetary system.

This new monetary system has been detailed in a Senate Bill S.2158. The bill waits to be passed, at the last moment when it is needed. It is now being ruthlessly put into place by the U.S. Treasury Dept. A BLOCKED CURRENCY is coming - - this is also discussed and explained in detail. This is the system that is used when a country runs out of money and has no alternative but to devalue against those countries to which it is deeply in debt. Chapter 5 discusses IN DETAIL how Americans will be affected by this DUAL CURRENCY SYSTEM.

Kilo

(10/09/2003; 07:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110086)

Sorry for the repostings....... ;o)

Guess I need to scroll down (think) before posting (talking).......

CoBra(too)

(10/09/2003; 08:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110087)

Thanks to Kilo

For posting the link to "Currency Recall" by Patterson.

Just in my neck of woods ... cb2

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/09/2003; 08:15:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110088)

USA! Two Currencies - magazine article Tue, 01 Aug 1995 17:42:19 -0700

http://www.uwsa.com/pipermail/money-ethics/1995/003363.htmlU.S. Senate Bill S-307 Plans
Two Currencies for America
by Iain C L Poole

It looks as if the Domestic and Non-Domestic $100 bills provided for in Senator Leahy's S-307 will soon be with us. Last year, Leahy introduced S-2158, which called for tightly controlled "domestic" and "non-domestic" ver
sions of the dollar, and new banknotes for both. S-2158 failed to pass the 103rd Congress because of public objections to the "dual currency" idea, but the Counterfeiting and Money Laundering Deterrence Act,
reintroduced just a few months later as S-307, is a very close replacement.
Justified as a "pre-emptive strike against counterfeiting" this idea recalls the Federal Reserve's "pre-emptive strike against inflation."
By getting us used to pre-emptive strikes against scary monsters like counterfeiting and inflation, the Fed can sell us on unpopular ideas like currency replacement without having to bother creating a problem first. Although
they could create a problem if they had to, of course!
Congress has been asked on several occasions to study creating a more traceable currency which is harder to counterfeit. U.S. $100 bills are some of the easiest of all currencies to counterfeit, especially for such a high value.

WAC: Apparently, it's to eliminate counterfeiting. Who is the BIGGEST counterfeiter of all, one asks oneself!!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/09/2003; 09:40:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110089)

Bullion at 1 percent over our cost, free shipping on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

(10/09/2003; 09:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110090)

Credit Suisse- First Boston Opines on the Gold/Euro Relationship

http://www.jsmineset.com/dispimg.asp?imgsrc=%2E%2Fimages%2Fchart%2DOct082003%2D2%2Ejpg.

Great Albino Bat

(10/09/2003; 10:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110091)

Cor Tauri: Excellent brief resum� of recent history you just posted!

"All men die, few are witness to great things, and fewer still understand what they have seen."

Remarkable expression, Cor Tauri, congratulations!

Words to write down and memorize.

The GAB

Basil

(10/09/2003; 10:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110092)

Cor Tauri

Thank You---for the detailed response.
Therein is much much food for thought.
You have graciously provided the most cogent explanation and history for this gold/oil conundrum I've yet encountered.

Gandalf the White

(10/09/2003; 10:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110093)

ANOTHER chance to get "IT" at a price that will never be seen again !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0NOT to worry about the US$ Index -- The US Government has learned from the Japanese on how to MANIPULATE it well !
This, together with the CABAL playing the "HIT THE STOP LOSS ORDERS" on COMEX Gold again --- PROVES to me that the ONLY way to beat them is to get each GOLDHEART to buy more physical GOLD and hold on to it !
<;-)

cockerel1

(10/09/2003; 10:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110094)

Dual currency!

It's obvious to me that the real reason to go to a dual currency is to devalue the "local" dollar, while maintaining the "international" dollar at ?????

If that is the case, my dumb questions are these:

Will the SM quote numbers in both denominations?
Will dual interest rates be instituted as well?
Will currency markets quote both rates?
Will either be tied to gold and or silver?
Can a dual currency system work?
Why not just cede to gold and silver as the only international currencies? (How stupid! Cannot manipulate!)
Does any of the answers to these questions matter?

Seems to me "Pandora's Box" will become America's nightmare!

Solomon Weaver

(10/09/2003; 10:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110095)

The color of money

Hi folks....most of you may not recognize me...but I was once sitting often at the round table...and listen in on occassion.

This topic of the new design on American Dollars seems to raise the blood pressure levels in the hearts of conspiracy theorists.

The problem I see is that in the new digital age, where money is often never even printed, and in the recent years so well narrated by Doug Noland in his weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin, where non-banks such as Freddie Mac can create new "dollar denominated credit", the numbers of dollars actually printed with presidents faces on them is some small percent of the total money supply.

Given the number of people I see writing a check or using a credit card for a simple purchase under $5, I can only assume that many people float around using almost only digital cash.

Some many years ago, I briefly subscribed to a newsletter, and ever since, I seem to be on the list of the Weiss Report, so I get these glossy brochure booklets...well, in the last months, Mr. Weiss seems to be strongly opinioned that the US Banking system has now been hit with so many non-performing loans, large corporate bankruptcies, deteriorating consumer credit performance, and huge derivative exposure....and of course, these banks have transferred much of their risk off to other banks in Europe and Asia. I know Mr. Weiss needs to use flambouyant language to attract new subscribers, but his advertised predictions for the US Banking system are dire.

One great problem facing governments and their central bank shareholders, is the in each fiat currency created, they must maintain parity between bank deposits (digital) and cash (faces of famous heros and landmarks). I, as an American, have personally lived for many years in Switzerland and a year in Japan, and my observation is that the USA is the nation which has the least amount of cash paper in daily use.

Now, remember, a "collapse" in the US banking system does not destroy the wiring and computer terminals over which the digital cash transfers flow....but it slows down or stops the process of interbank guarantees. One obvious effect will be temporary caps on the sizes of transfers, and longer delays on transfers of larger amounts of funds.

Just like a modest tightening of oil supplies in the late 70s caused Americans to start lining up every day to top off their tanks (causing lines), any serious and extended ill confidence in the US banking system will cause many honest and simple minded Americans to line up at ATMs....if simply for the reason that many vendors are "temporarily not accepting checks". It is prudent for our government to stockpile bills for this occassion, IF ONLY TO ASSURE OUR CITIZENS THAT ENOUGH REAL CASH RESERVES EXIST TO FACILITATE SMALL HAND TRADE, SUCH AS PURCHASING GAS AND GROCERIES.

So, if the US Government would establish such a special printing program, it would certainly cost them an immense amount of money to build the extra printing presses, purchase the extra paper and inks, etc. Is it any surprise that they would simultaneously introduce additional printing techniques which are already used for years by the Swiss and now found in the Euro bills??

The US also faces another conundrum in that its domestic currency is also the currency of its national economy....in the past it has allowed Americans to "spend" the first dollars printed. But, in the meantime, it has become a unit of financial trade worldwide, and many contracts (business agreements, and derivatives, etc) are denominated in dollars. When some country in Southeast Asia or South America defaults, and their currency collapses, it is usually the locals (and speculative foreign investors) who suffer. Interestingly, many who survive are those who have deposits or contracts denominated in dollars (and those who fall often have dollar debts to pay). Even if certain American-haters think that a dollar collapse would be just, since it is also not only a reserve currency, but the dominant international "contract" currency, as the dollar falls to zero value it will create global chaos.

I am certainly only an amateur economist, but it occurs to me that there DOES need to be a dollar in which the US citizens may do business (just like a Japanese can use yen, a Russian rubels, a German Euromarks, a French Eurofrancs).

The world must face that massive amounts of dollar based bonds (and contracts) are going to become higher risk instruments, and they need to trade down to junk-bond status (which would invert the usual relationship where "spreads" are measured above US Treasuries.

Just like a bankruptcy court will allow a productive citizen or corporation to file a bankruptcy, and the outcome is usually a restructuring and firesale, but the defaulting party will usually have some obligation to service a residual debt (creating a cash flow to the risk taker holding the debt), the world, if it cannot find a way to allow the American dollar (government) to declare bankruptcy, without completely destroying the productive economy in America (which is the party that must service that debt) will only become empoverished, as much capital is burned.

The balance needs now to tip, so that America can actually produce enough new value in the world, so that we can accumulate foreign currencies, and use those foreign currencies to "purchase back" or retire the government debt we now have.

Can we not see that there must be two US dollars? So that Gresham's Law may work? It is not right that Americans continue to use their reserve/contract currency status to have the world subsidize their lives, but the Americans could be correct in creating a "dear dollar" in which they may rebuild their economy, to pay back the "poor dollars of yesteryears debt". The only other option is for an almost complete default of US dollar denominated debt and contracts....would would temporarily empoverish the entire world (and would let the Americans off scott free).

So, conspiracy theorists....let's keep an eye on the new dollar....and raise our voices that it should be backed by gold...as many other nations will soon do.

Poor old Solomon

Alberta Rose

(10/09/2003; 10:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110096)

New U.S. Currency

My husband and I are going on a cruise in November, starting in Ft. Lauderdale and cruising through the Caribbean, stopping in South American and Mexican ports and finishing in Los Angeles. What do we do about U.S.currency? We usually carry travellers cheques denominated in U.S. dollars. Will our travellers cheques be in the new currency or the old? If we get stuck with new bills, will they be negotiable in other countries? Should we use Canadian dollars for the cheques? One more thing to worry about--travelling is becoming quite a challenging business.

ski

(10/09/2003; 11:04:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110097)

(No Subject)

Pizz rave of yesterday
Pizz, after reading your rave and rant yesterday (I am in agreement), an easier way of expressing it comes to mind.

Much of the world, and especially the United States, is entering a period of time in which CIVILIZATION WILL GO BACKWARDS.

So be it.....

Pizz

(10/09/2003; 11:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110098)

What dual Currency?

We change the design and color on the bills and everyone starts to panic.

About the only thing the currency change over will accomplish is to shake some cash out of the underground economy, increase the velocity of money a bit, increase tax revenues slightly as untaxed money works its way back into the system - and slightly slow down the counterfiters.

We can't even come up with an accurate system to keep track of one currency, let alone two. We need to attract capital into this country, so we're going to devalue "foreign" dollars and issue a new currency so as to be able to keep our current "borrowed" standard of living? Foreigners are going to rush to buy our debt instraments with old dollars in return for what? Or did we start to run surpluses again and I missed it? We will continue to pay notes and bonds with old dollars? Who would buy any more? Would we use new dollars? Then how would they be an internal currency? Heck, the tax code would look like a kindergarden primer compared to the mess a two tier currency in the world of computers would generate.

The dollar is going to depreciate on it's own, and it's done it before. Gold is going to go up, and will continue to do so until some sort of equilibrium is reached. When the US voters finally get fed up with the politicians and the Fed printing presses, and the rampant inflation that is coming, we'll get back to hard backing of the currency.

Til then, it will be a pretty wild roller-coaster ride as all the special interest, hedge funds, etc., try to extricate themselves from predicament after predicament.

Course I could be wrong and Planet X is real, and the new currency will be used as we roll what's left of civilization back to the stone age - I haven't read yet that you can't start a good fire with the new stuff. . .

Pizz

TownCrier

(10/09/2003; 11:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110099)

European gold reserves, slightly lighter yet growing in value

Last week, on Sept 30 we set the stage for the latest information on reserves to come out of Euroland this week. Briefly, I posted:

ECB foreign exchange reserves tell a tale worth hearing.....

....net position in foreign currency has been allowed to dwindle in value by another 400 million euro in the natural course of business during the past week.... At the same time, there was a 57 million euro reduction in gold and gold receivables from a 5 tonne sale...

....today's [Sept 30] quarterly revaluation, when the extent is revealed next week, will largely obscure these values when the dollar's quarterly losses (of two cents; partially offset by yen gains of 7) are set beside gold gains of over 25 euro per ounce. [end of recap]

Belgian's observations are correct. You typically don't see this mark-to-market revaluation information presented for general consumption anywhere else but here. And the time has arrived once again, with yesteday's release of the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, to discuss the effects of the latest quarterly revaluation.

During this past quarter, the Eurosystem's net position in foreign currency has been allowed to diminish in size from approximately EUR 198.7 billion to EUR 192.2 billion. I say "allowed to" because the bulk of this was simply a result of portfolio adjustments whereas EUR 2.9 billion of this decline came from the quarterly revaluation (as each dollar in eurosystem reserves lost value by 0.017 euro ((1.7 cents)) during the quarter, while the yen enjoyed marginal gains).

Meanwhile, (despite some homeopathic gold sales), the value of eurosystem gold reserves rose over the quarter by a net 10.8 billion euro, from 119.980 billion euro in value at the first week of July to 130.822 billion euro today. The quarterly gold revaluation was itself responsible for a 11.1 billion euro gain, as gold rose in the market from a June 30 fix near 302.05 euro per ounce to a September 30 fix near 329.99 euro per ounce.

It was not long ago when the book value of Eurosystem gold reserves were just one third of total, whereas now, due to foreign currency DEvaluations and gold RE(up)valuations, the gold portion of international reserve value within the Eurosystem has now taken over a 40 pecent position of the total as detailed here.

You too can follow this easy example -- walk "in the footsteps of giants".

R.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/09/2003; 12:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110100)

Monkey see, Monkey do - New currency on the way

http://electroniciraq.net/news/1138.shtmlReport, IRIN, 6 October 2003

The smell of burning 250-dinar notes - the Iraqi currency - permeates the air at the Central Bank just a little more than a week before the new currency is to go into circulation. Workers around the central lobby are busy counting new notes in various denominations, which will be available in banks on 15 October.

Since March, Iraqis have been buying and selling virtually all their goods using the purple and blue 250-dinar notes bearing Saddam Hussein's portrait. The notes are the equivalent of about 10 US cents at the current exchange rate. Because banknote printing presses were stolen from the Central Bank, notes of all other denominations are considered suspect by merchants - even a 10,000-dinar note worth about US $3.

Introducing new notes will help stabilise the currency and stop counterfeiting, according to Muhammad Salman Muhammad, the Central Bank governor, who recently unveiled images of the new notes and their security features. The new notes were identical to those in circulation before 1990, Muhammad said. None of them pictures Saddam Hussein.

"Iraq's currency has faced many difficulties over the years", Muhammad told IRIN in the capital, Baghdad. "This currency will be hard for counterfeiters to duplicate. It will also stabilise the general level of prices", he added.

The Hoople

(10/09/2003; 12:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110101)

Ski

Regarding "entering a peroiod of time in which civilization will go backwards" - I would argue by many measures which a civilization measures wealth (knowledge, transportation, crime, health) we have been going backwards for many years now. A common Civil War soldier could write more eloquently than most college educated men today. The dumbing down transcends nearly all endeavors. Transportation has become insufferable gridlock, public transportation was vastly superior decades ago. We have 2 million people in prisons and still crime rates are alarming. Diseases such as Alzheimers, diabetes and cancer are nearly parabolic when graphed on a chart. Civilization is going backwards; it is accelerating the trend. Few people connect how when the Federal Reserve was formed in 1913 the inflation and debasement of currency it spawned has ravaged society for almost a century. We are all the poorer for their greed.

Simply Me

(10/09/2003; 12:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110102)

@Solomon Weaver

Poor ol' Solomon, good to hear from your words of wisdom again! You're perspective is right on.

I like a good conspiracy theory as much as anyone, but the idea that the US could keep a two currency system under control is as ridiculous trusting the INS to control our borders!

All paper...white(contracts),green or pink...will burn and only gold will survive the flames.
Simply

specie-man

(10/09/2003; 12:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110103)

New US Currency

The Bureau of Engraving & Printing Fort Worth facility has tight security, but it is not new and it is not a "secret". The Fort Worth facility has been producing US currency, along with the BEP Washington facility, for some time. Take some Federal Reserve notes out of your wallet. Look at the lower right corner of the front. There will be a small letter, followed by one or more even-smaller numbers. These identify the printing plate and the position on that plate where the bill came from. If the plate ID is preceded by a small "FW", then the note was printed in Fort Worth. Otherwise, it came from Washington DC.

Regarding the "dual-currency" theories -
In the past, when new "anti-counterfeiting" designs were introduced, they started with the $100 and worked their way down the denomination scale. Curiously, they are starting with the $20 bill this time. So instead of starting with the highest denomination, they are starting with the most commonly-used denomination. Why ? $100 bills are used more by foreigners than by Americans (three out of every four $100 bills ever printed are currently outside US borders). $20 bills are used more by Americans than forigners (it is the most common denomination in day-to-day US public transactions).

My theory is that they want the new bills to stay here in the US. Placing any type of exchange controls on currency could instigate a panic. So instead, the new bill is issued in the denomination that is most likely to stay home.

Could this be a prelude to placing exchange controls on the old bills ? The net effect would be that old bills (mostly overseas) would be devalued, while the new bills (mostly domestic) would retain their value. This would, in effect, diminish US financial obligations to foreigners. They would have to make a whole bunch more stuff and sell it to us to replace their old "worthless" bills with new bills.

But I suspect, if there is a hidden motive to this currency change, it is to catch international money launderers, drug dealers, etc.

Gondolin

(10/09/2003; 13:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110104)

Druid, US Ambassadors Speech in NZ

I seem to recall that when New Zealand, then a member of ANZUS voted to go Nuclear Free that they were not long after shunted out of the Anzus Alliance and indeed had a degree of trade sanctions levied against them by the US as punishment for their temerity.

I don't believe that speeches like the one the Ambassador was about to deliver will sway New Zealand policy or New Zealanders. Their belief in the UN as the mechanism of International Policy is firm, as has been their conviction to join UN endeavours on every occasion.

Further, I don't believe it any coincidence that the Prime Minister Helen Clark went on a whirwind tour of Europe, including State visits with Jaques Chirac in April this year, following the decision not to join the Coalition invasion of Iraq.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/09/2003; 13:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110105)

Page Update!

Pizz

(10/09/2003; 13:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110106)

Simply Me

On our borders - Went into Canada from the Eastern Washington side (low traffic) last weekend for the first time since 911.

Did not have to show any ID going in, and when I came back into the US I handed them both my wife's and my passport. They didn't even open them, but were concerned about the case and a half of Canadian wine that we purchased. Can only bring in a liter a piece duty free, so I had to park my car and go into the customs building and pay 2.35 duty.

Our borders are about as tight as a bucket with no bottom. . .

Pizz

Gondolin

(10/09/2003; 14:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110107)

Various responses to valued replies

Belgian(110064),thanks again. Your comments on developments re the euro always further reinforce my belief that things are a changing, although those shackles are still very heavy on Gold still.

Town Crier and Cyclist (110071), thanks for the reference to the links graphing POG in various currencies, makes for interesting comparisons between various currencies.

Cor Tauri 110081, I must agree with GABs comment on your post. Thats copied, pasted and saved for future reference any time I try to explain the state of affairs to someone else in my somewhat stilted manner and need a bit of assistance. Well written indeed!

Steady (110045), Smeagol (110044), Without trying to start mad conspiracy theories, perhaps the fact that the word 'dollar' does not appear on fed reserve notes is so that when/if the FRN plummets in value Treasury can turn around and say hey, that's not a dollar, a dollar is valued at $42.22 against an ounce of gold- even if POG has rocketed against all other paper.

Someone could write a great spy/ thriller book on these events- whether it be based just on the ACTUAL facts of whats happening, or taking it to the extremes of conspiracy. Hmmm, someone's probably penning as we write here now.... Who said all paper is worthless.... what am I waiting for!

Great Albino Bat

(10/09/2003; 14:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110108)

Don't blame the FED, blame OIL!

Allow this old GAB to present a theory about our times.

As Black Blade notes in his (two part?) series on "Hydrocarbon Man" - (in the archives, which I have not searched) petroleum has changed the face of civilization in the last 100 years.

Oil was in use in the late 1800's but it really got going on a huge scale, after WWII.

Oil use has not only raised the standard of living of most of the world, it has had its effect on the social tissue of all nations. I don't recall that Black Blade got into this. If so, and you remember, then just skip what I say.

It was in the 20th Century that societies began to fall apart.

Certainly, there were wars before the 20th Century, but their nature was quite different. Soldiers fought soldiers; losing generals handed in their swords and were treated like gentlemen.

During the 20th Century, we have witnessed a progressive breakdown of societies all over the world. There has been a radical "dehumanization" of humanity.

But, notice that this has taken place along with the increasing use of petroleum, or oil for short.

I submit that the increasing use of oil by humanity, has had the effect of injecting energy into humanity as an integral system. The use of oil has meant that each individual human has had greater power over nature, greater freedom of movement, both of himself and of things which he wants to move.

All humans together, are vastly more "powerful" than they were 100 years ago. By using oil, they are releasing ENERGY into the human system, regardless of national frontiers.

The human race, over millions of years (I do believe that humans have been around for millions of years) or thousands, if that is the time-frame you prefer, have never had such use of energy. We have not been prepared for the release of such a vast amount of energy into our environment.

Perhaps we could say that the beast which is the FED, is a consequence of OIL, and not the prime cause of so much evil attributed to it.

The human race appears to have gone quite mad, and I would attribute this condition to the all-out use of OIL. Our use of oil is destroying us, it's driving us crazy. Everything moves so fast - because of oil's energy released into our societies.

But, as we read "Hydrocarbon Man", we can see that relief is in sight within the next few decades. Oil use has probably peaked, in my humble opinion. If not, it will necessarily peak in ten or twenty years at the most.

After that, as we come off the peak use of oil, things will begin to slow down; slowly at first, and then the brakes will come on harder and harder, as oil becomes more and more expensive.

Gradually, humanity will regain its compusure. Our age will be thought about for a thousand years and more. It will never be duplicated, nor even approached, in its grandeur, along with its dehumanization.

As we slow down, we will have time to talk again to our fellow humans. We will once again, gather at the village store to whittle on a piece of wood while listening to the sages expound their views. Old people will once again be treated with respect and awe. Reading will flourish once again - plenty of time for it, "'cause we ain't goin' nowheres!"

Travel will hold great mystery, and only a very priviledged few will ever travel around the world, or go more than 20 miles from their birthplace, as was the condition of humans before, say, 1820.

Oil has brought us magnificence and madness, together.

Hubbert's Peak marks more than the depletion of world oil; it marks the reestablishment of the natural order - the Tao - which has been violated the past hundred years.

The transition will be painful, but beyond, lies the recovery of human nature, for humans. And yes, gold and silver will be part of that recovery.

Rich guano from the GAB. Thanks for reading, and comments welcome.

Ten Bears

(10/09/2003; 14:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110109)

Dave Lewis.. today..good read

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmOct 9: "The procyclical character of the foreign exchange component of global international reserves and the failure of domestic monetary authorities to use stable policy rules to guide the more discretionary approach to monetary management that replaced the more rigid rules-based gold standard of the earlier era are key for explaining the developments in credit markets that helped to set the stage for the Great Depression. This particular constellation of monetary, financial and technological factors was what allowed the credit boom of the 1920s to develop as it did. We would be prepared to make similar arguments about the macroeconomic cycle of the 1990s." - BIS Working Paper #137

Great Albino Bat

(10/09/2003; 15:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110110)

Allow me a few more comments to add to my previous post...

The French Revolution at the end of the 18th Century had a great destructive effect upon the constitution of many societies in the world; it posited a recreation of all society according to the Light of Reason. Monarchy and Aristocracy were not considered reasonable, as based only on unjustified privilege, and so they were destroyed, along with other venerable institutions.

Then, beginning in the 19th Century, the revolutionary and rationalistic spirit was taken up by August Comte (1798-1857) and his colleague, Saint Simon. Comte gave the name "Positivism" to his philosophy. According to it, all society should be PLANNED, and not left to "chance". As a tool, statistics came into its own. Comte invented the very word, "Socialism".

Had it not been for OIL (!!) all these visionary plans would have remained the pet theories of a few dissatisfied intellectuals, mouldered for a while, and then been forgotten in the "dust bin of history". But...

OIL came along. Oil improved the standard of living. It increased incomes enormously, for masses of people. Along with the increase in incomes, came the increase in TAXES. And also, the increase in FINANCIAL POWER. (Societ� General of France, if I am not mistaken, was founded for the purpose of furthering DEVELOPMENT, the bane of our age)

Now governments and banks, not only individuals, became powerful. The wealth of their subjects provided governments with TAXES in ever increasing amounts. Governments proceeded to carry out the planning mandate envisioned by Comte. With fractional banking, they did it with a will.

Planning became the rage, and still is. In the U.S., the popular imagination was stirred as by no other book, by reading Bellamy's (1897) "Looking Backward", a novel placed in Boston in the year 2000, where the hero of the novel wakes up after a long trance-like sleep. He sees what PLANNING has achieved. And what he saw, of Boston as imagined in the year 2000, is a lot like the present day, but without the perception of the accompanying sinister realities.

Bellamy's projected Boston in 2000 was Paradise on Earth, literally. This gave a great boost to the idea that governments should IMPROVE people and actively organize them, an idea utterly at odds with the Founding Fathers' vision of a country where the people were to be left alone to work out their lives for themselves, with a minimum of government.

OIL provided the fuel for socialism, for planning, for the Welfare State. Oil brought us not only magnificence, but madness, as I just said.

OIL empowered the visionary thinkers of the 19th and 20th Centuries to saddle us with their Utopian dreams.

The decline of oil production and consumption, will surely bring us back to our senses. There is ground for Hope.

Excuse the rant, please. The GAB

Topaz

(10/09/2003; 16:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110111)

Bonds, Gold and the Dollar.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10Are we witnessing a sea-change with our protagonists? In prior reversals the Cash $ has rallied much stronger than this, indicating a flight from Bonds into something other than Cash/PaperGold...Stocks? ...Nah! Physical maybe! The upward pressure on DX is clearly lacking at present and we'll know soon enough if the LongBond works higher than 5.4%.

nummus aureus

(10/09/2003; 16:14:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110112)

Sir Solomon Weaver

A golden cup is hoisted in honor of your return.
Mayhap Other and Another old Friends of this table will speak again.

melda laure

(10/09/2003; 18:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110113)

Financial Power, food for thought.

GABWhat is financial power, may I ask? I have my own opinion, but maybe I should get yours first.

Interestingly, the power of fiat is the power to inflate away its value. Its power is dissipative, rather than genitive. Gold on the other hand is more like energy, it is static, neither growing nor diminishing. Power, energy, these I understand, but financial power?

I'll offer a hint, and a longer post later: beginning in 1492, a veritable mountain of gold started making its way eastward from the "new" world to the old. This, as we know, caused much more creeping deflation than had been the case up to that time. Eventually something ELSE changed as well; something else came with the gold.... Come come now, surely all those hobbits around Gandalf know the answer. We know that eventually, the rising technology of fossil energy allowed cheap energy to be transformed into cheap "work". Modern deflation (at least up until 1913) is a product of technology, investment and cheap energy. Sadly in our time, only the first of these seems to survive (the present paper chase cannot be properly called investment, even an outfit like amazon seems to burn cash rather than earn it).

steady

(10/09/2003; 18:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110114)

ecoism -scene one -take two!

Ecoism

well les see if i cant type better, and organise my thoughts in a way that makes reading them worthwhile!

Thanks for the encouragement lady!

Ecosim is an idea spreading amongs a segemt of the earths population. the majority of these followers happen to be gold bugs but not all are, ie it is not a prerequiste.

what is the idea behind ecoism.

the idea behind ecoism is that each individual is responsible for his or her own financial integrity.
you may think well everyone does that now, but you see in ecoism the goal is to be a positive unit of account, or in other words a revenue stream to you rather than the bank. Yes it may be difficult not to use the bank but ecoism belives the less you let the banks handle your capital the better off you are since they charge you to use your money. ecoism is an understanding of where wealth can be preserved and the true value of fiat script.Further more besides an understanding ecoism is those who are taking action now .

In a way it is similar to nationalism
both are or did have there birth during times of war. natioalism finds its roots in the 100 year war(1330-1453) which awakend the french nationalism. a lil closer during the late 1840s conditions existed that allowed for nationalism to flourish. in 1848 it did, across the european continent. the effect was removal of certain political entities and replacement with a new regime nationalistic political regime.

the same conditions are reappearing now , ( economic maladies, poor employment ,and all the others that you all know about so i woint go into them)today conditions also exist socially for ecoism to rise up and spread not only across the continent but planet wide simply because every human understands money now, its the nature of the system.
ecoism isnt against credit as credit when applied properly has its place.

unlike nationalism ecoism isnt so narrowminded to be confined to artifical lines drawn on a map or a respector of fences( hi again israel) Rather than seeking the benifit of a nation (nationalism) ecoism seeks the benifit of the individual thru a more liberal possibly even free gold market. where each individual can save there wealth in a currency that isnt subjected to central bank interventions or printing presses rolling at such an incredible speed that one tiny spark could set teh entie place on fire, or even digital entries that compound the number of fractionalized dollars floating around in digital land.ecosism is about individual holding there wealth in a tangible asset soething whose size , shape and weight can be measured..
so the individual attracting gold to himself will also benifit the nation in the long run .

unlike mercantilism which very wrongly assumed that economies could only grow at the expense of other economies ( dont we still see that outdated concept but just in a different form today thru currency devaluation ie hurting one nations floating value of there unit of account to enhance your economic advantage over that said unoit of account)where ecoism assumes that all economies could grow without hurting each otherif all trade imbalances where once again paid in gold. similar to what the dinar is re-establishing right now.
as economies are made up of individual business and people so in treality we are all hurting each other. ecoism proposes to call a truce before all paper currencies currencys trade at or near there true value.

just like mercantilism ecoism is about attracting gold to the nation, but this time thru the individual( hello china) for as we know and understand gold has an inverse relationship with how its priced right now. so ecoism knows that the nation that has the most people holding gold will benifit the most, for the mass of the masses will out weigh the mass of the central banks and those who have the gold make the rules. ecoism recognise that and envcourages others to join in preserving yourself and in the future your nation state standard of living.

see ecoism is just developing its an idea that trys to express what is happening and what will continue to happen at a quicker paces as time progresses and the idea spreads to the four corners of this planet.

ecoism is the understanding of the monetary system makeup and the unprecidented imbalences in that system. furthermore ecoism is teh belife that a return to an honest money will in the long run benifit the planet. Since ecoism is new, and somehow due to modern technology was given a second life even before being born, ecoism isnt sure what will make up that type of monetary system.
will the money be based on a basket of commodities? oil/ grain/ gold/ water? or will it be made up of a gold standard. who knows?

see ecoism is what is happening right here right now. and i think i can rightfully say its origins come form this fourm as its impact is being felt world wide. those who have been here for 4 or all 5 years must certainy recognize that the mainstream media is using lots of words terms that where or have been used here first. the signs are every where.
From this site to the world!

now people here about change. People read about an orderly rather than unorderly drop in the dollar and begin to think (the seeds of ecoism) of what is going on , what do i do to preserve my wealth? Like thoughts a ecoism is a fluid thing because its an idea and the idea isnt cast in stone it cant be it has to be tested, thesis anti thesis thesis untill it turns into a truth as it is accepted as a reality and manifests itself into consciousness by the human race!

Ecoism sounds like echo. and comes from eco nomics ism is because its an idea whos time has arrived. in addition its just an idea that may or may not be. but its one that is my intreptation as to what is see developing in this world.

Dollar Bill

(10/09/2003; 19:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110115)

*>*.........+

FED Bereneke and Ken's excellent learning adventure

"In my talk today, I will report the results of research that I have done on this topic with Kenneth Kuttner of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as well as the findings of some related work done both within and outside the Federal Reserve System.1 The views I will express today, however, are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

In our research, Kuttner and I asked two questions. First, by how much do changes in monetary policy affect equity prices? As you will see, we focus on changes in monetary policy that are unanticipated by market participants because anticipated changes in policy should already be discounted by stock market investors and, hence, are unlikely to affect equity prices at the time they are announced. We find an effect of moderate size: Monetary policy matters for the stock market but, on the other hand, it is not one of the major influences on equity prices.

Our second question, both more interesting and more difficult, is, why do changes in monetary policy affect stock prices? We come up with a rather surprising answer, at least one that was surprising to us. We find that unanticipated changes in monetary policy affect stock prices not so much by influencing expected dividends or the risk-free real interest rate, but rather by affecting the perceived riskiness of stocks. A tightening of monetary policy, for example, leads investors to view stocks as riskier investments and thus to demand a higher return to hold stocks. For a given path of expected dividends, a higher expected return can be achieved only by a fall in the current stock price. As we will see, this finding has interesting implications for several issues, including the role of stock prices in transmitting the effects of monetary policy actions to the broader economy and the potential effectiveness of monetary policy in "pricking" putative bubbles in the stock market. I will come back to these issues at the end of my talk. I start, however, with the problem of measuring the effect of monetary policy on the stock market."

How reassureing, a couple guys winging policy on the fly as they learn(guess).

Dollar Bill

(10/09/2003; 20:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110116)

*>*.........+

Greetings Great Albino Bat, your post on oil brought up some interesting thoughts in my head, thanks for that.
The Tao, well, that has been disproven by the pesky troublesome side of life. No one gets to be trouble free. Even using money location and smarts wont accomplish that.
If there werent a god mandateing that, then there would be at least one random guy who could escape troubles. So rather than a Tao balance mechanism at work, run by a buddhist style oneness, we more likely have a flaw mechanism at work that makes sure we dont solve all the issues and make utopia.

I guess god likes the struggle.

specie-man

(10/09/2003; 20:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110117)

steady - ecoism (& borrowing to buy PMs)

I agree with your assessment of banks. If you are in debt, then the bank is like a "middle man" between you and everything else.

I recommend cutting out the middle man.

I tell people, that if they have a 401K and a mortgage, they should cash out the 401K , pay the fees/fines/taxes, and pay off the mortgage. Cut out the middle man ! Then take it easier in life knowing that you have no debt and don't have to work so hard. It would then be relatively easy to save for retirement (since there would be no more mortgage payments). They look at me like I'm crazy.

Now here is a more difficult question to answer. Should a person sell their precious metals holdings to pay off debt ? If the debt is high-interest credit cards, then I say absolutely yes. If the debt is a reasonable-rate mortgage (~ 5%), then the question is a lot more difficult.

What percentage rate would be the cutoff ? In other words, if you were able to borrow money to purchase precious metals, would you do it, and what is the maximum interest rate you would pay to do so ?

Dollar Bill

(10/09/2003; 20:29:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110118)

*>*.........+

I heard today that Mexico does not have mortgages available for people. If you want property, you must pay in cash.
It was on financial news today and I heard it 3 times.
Anyone know why Mexico (and presumably other countries), would be in this shape?

Camel

(10/09/2003; 20:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110119)

"Buddhist style oneness"?

Sorry Dollar Bill, but there is no such concept in
Buddhism. Buddhists seek emptyness not oneness.

Smeagol

(10/09/2003; 20:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110120)

That 42 dollar Quesstion haunts

(from Gondolin): "Without trying to start mad conspiracy theories, perhaps the fact that the word 'dollar' does not appear on fed reserve notes -"

Eh? Hmmm, we just pulled one from our pocketses and and it does say 'one dollar' on it, unless you sspeak of other notes?

" -is so that when/if the FRN plummets in value Treasury can turn around and say hey, that's not a dollar, a dollar is valued at $42.22 against an ounce of gold- even if POG has rocketed against all other paper."

That suggessts to us that maybe ssomeday as the paper is burning the Treasury will throw the Fed into the Fire too, and recognize a 'constitutionally valued' dollar again, we hopes?

S.

P.S. to the Lady Grateful
GratefulForGold (10/08/03; 23:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110059)
Thanks you, Lady, for your kindness. Shortly after we found this great Forum, there was at a time when there were many from the Story here, and a Contesst, and sso of course we HAD to join in (grin).

Now Smeagol is on the side of Giants and Good and Gold, and helps perhaps even if only in little ways. If they tires of us, jusst ssay the word, and Smeagol will use English and Grammar to make possts that look like the others.

Cavan Man

(10/09/2003; 20:41:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110121)

Dollar Bill

That is simply the financial culture. Always been that way. They do not live in an aadvanced credit society like in US.

AEL

(10/09/2003; 20:42:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110122)

Fine Rants, Great Albino!

Along similar lines, here are excerpts from an article that
I think you'll love (and others here might enjoy)....

SUMMARY:

"Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought, blurs vision,
corrupts... Oil fills us with such arrogance that we begin
believing we can easily overcome such unyielding obstacles as
time... Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life,
life without work, life for free."

---------------------

pdf file:
http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/EnvirPol/WP/01-Watts.pdf

html file:
http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:EMZOfT-HwMoJ:globetrotter.berkeley.edu/EnvirPol/WP/01-Watts.pdf&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

EXCERPTS FROM:

BERKELEY WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS

WORKING PAPERS

WP 99-1

PETRO-VIOLENCE

SOME THOUGHTS ON COMMUNITY, EXTRACTION, AND POLITICAL ECOLOGY

Michael J. Watts

Professor of Geography
Director, Institute of International Studies
University of California, Berkeley

Oil, more than any other commodity, illustrates both the
importance and the mystification of natural resources in the
modern world. -- Fernando Coronil, The Magical State, 1997, p. 49

[.....]

I want to offer some thoughts on the violence that so often
attends the extraction of oil [and necessarily on the ecological
devastation which is its handmaiden]; what I'll call for the
purposes of this workshop petro-violence. My purpose is not to
offer, obviously, a sort of commodity determinism -- petroleum is
more violent than coal, or oil extraction breeds Muslim radicalism
(Iran) while copper breeds evangelical cronyism (Zambia) -- but to
take seriously the idea that the biophysical properties of Nature,
of a natural resource, matter in both palpable and analytical
ways. It is both difficult and artificial to distill out the
narrowly defined biological and geophysical properties of "crude"
or "raw" petroleum from the social relations (institutional
practices, ideological associations and meanings, forms of
extraction, production and use) of petroleum, a commodity not only
saturated in the mythos of the rise of the West but also
indisputably one of the most fundamental building blocks of
twentieth century industrial capitalism ("hydrocarbon
capitalism"). But I do believe that a commodity focus --
particularly on a part of Nature which has the density and weight
of black gold -- offers a way of thinking about the intersection
of environment and violence: both biological violence, as it were,
perpetrated upon the biophysical world, and the social violence,
criminality and degeneracy associated with the genesis of
petro-wealth and with its ecological destructiveness.

[.....]

THE NATURE OF PETROLEUM: A FAUSTIAN SPECTACLE OF ILLUSION AND
DECEIT

The spectacle is not a collection of images, but a social relation
among people, mediated by images. Guy Debord, 1978, para. 4

Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life
without work, life for free.... The concept of oil expresses
perfectly the eternal human dream of wealth achieved through lucky
accident...In this sense oil is a fairy tale and like every fairy
tale a bit of a lie.

[.....]

[Oil] is a filthy, foul smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up
into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling shower of
money.

[.....]

Oil fills us with such arrogance that we begin believing we can
easily overcome such unyielding obstacles as time. With oil.... I
[Shah Pahlavi] will create a second America in a generation!

[.....]

Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought, blurs vision,
corrupts....Look at the ministers from oil countries, how high
they hold their heads, what a sense of power....

[.....]

And oil's relation to the Mosque? What vigor, glory and
significance this new wealth has given its religion, Islam, which
is enjoying a period of accelerated expansion and attracting new
crowds of faithful.

[.....]

Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above
all a great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth,
fortune, power. [But] oil, though powerful, has its defects.
Ryzsard Kapucinski, 1982, p. 34-35

[.....]

In a rather shopping-list sort of way, I want to identify eight
properties of oil, to begin at least to address the question of
the mystification of petroleum (and of Nature).2 [2. I have
written about these properties elsewhere (Watts 1997, 1994). I
have also pulled upon Terry Karl's book The Paradox of Plenty: Oil
Booms and Petro-States (University of California Press, 1996) and
Fernando Coronil's The Magic State: Nature, Money and Modernity in
Venezeula (University of Chicago Press, 1997).]

OIL IS MONEY [Black Gold]: as surely the most global and
commercially negotiable of commodities, "oil is money" as the
Chair of ARCO once put it (all oil transactions are conducted in
dollars). It is instant wealth -- it is capable of generating
unimaginable wealth in spite of the fact that this is in a sense
quite mysterious. Oil as money/value typically creates an ambition
and enervation -- what one oil commentator called the elan vital
of growth -- appropriate to the magnitude of oil wealth (cf. the
Shah's White Revolution).

PETRO-STATE AND NATION: the central idea is taken from Ricardo
Hausman (1981) that oil creates specific forms of state landed
property. This means among other things that nationalized
petroleum produces a state (the owner of the means of production)
which mediates the social relations by which oil is exploited
(concessions, joint ventures etc) and which is simultaneously
granted access to the world market. State landed property
necessarily converts oil into a theatre of struggle in which its
national qualities are paramount -- an "oil nation," "our oil" and
so on.

PETRO-IMPERIALISM [the Faustian pact]: oil is unavoidably an
engagement with some of the largest and most powerful forces of
transnational capital (who show up on the local doorstep) and with
all the contradictions of participating in the world market (boom
and bust). Exploitation of oil is in effect a pact (hardly a
social contract) -- a Faustian bargain -- in which a national
project (modernity, development, La Gran Venezuela) -- exchanged
for sovereignty, autonomy, independence, tradition and so on. The
realization of oil monies (through the world market) and the
localization of oil revenues by the state embody this pact. Which
is to say, as the founder of OPEC put it, "oil can bring trouble."

EVACUATIVE EXTRACTION/DESPOLIATION [liquid mobility]: the
territorial quality of oil -- its enclave character -- and the
fact that it has limited local linkage effects (oil is typically
evacuated) produces a peculiar sort of double movement. On the one
hand it literally flows out -- it is lost value in a quite
dramatic way -- and is understood to be of enormous value, and on
the other it is a subterranean (and brilliant) threat ecologically
speaking [it is the subterranean working of telluric forces].

HYPER-CENTRALIZATION [rentier states]: oil has a centralizing
effect (petrodollars rush into the Exchequer) and simultaneously
increases the states dependence on one commodity. Rents become the
basis of politics -- this is what Karl (1997) means when she says
that public expenditure displaces statecraft. Oil rents irrigate
the body politic as a way of purchasing some form of state
legitimacy or quiescence. The public contracts/tender -- always
massively inflated in a way that cost-overruns are politically
desirable (the more costly the better) -- becomes the metric of
political choice. The states degenerates into a prebend (hence the
common refrain that petro-states are especially corrupt, or
"flabby').

PETRO-FETISHISM/PETRO-MAGIC [the el Dorado effect]: oil as a world
of illusion. People become wealthy without effort; fabulous waste
and fiscal madness (Venezuela's factories with nothing in them,
Nigerian iron and steel produced at costs 7 times more than the
prevailing market price). The ephemerality of money -- boom to
bust, here today gone tomorrow; wealth which scorches the fingers,
signifies the loss of the soul. In the popular imagination oil
produces all manner of extraordinary magical events and mythic
properties (in Nigeria the trade in body parts, in Ecuador new
forms of evangelicalism, in Venezuela syncretic cults). Among the
politicians, bureaucrats and ruling classes oil is equally mythic
-- "to propel [us] into the twentieth century" as President Carlos
Perez put it.

VALORIZATION OF SPACE/TERRITORY: Insofar as oil has a point of
origin and is unavoidably a national commodity (a patrimony), it
is to be expected that the transformative potential of oil (how
the oil is to be sown in the economy as Coronil describes it in
Venezuela) invites a debate over who has claims over the resource
itself. Here the valorization of territory turns on the
contradictions between state imposed spaces (the concession) and
local/indigenous territorial rights (Ogoni land or the Huaorani
Ethnic Reserve). The fact that these two territorial claims embody
different property claims and rights (national versus customary
law say) necessarily instigates a debate over how the parts
constitute the whole, how the regional and local relate to the
national. Oil seems to always invoke the spatial lexicon in which
the Nation figures prominently. To the extent that oil production
happens to occur on lands populated by minorities, territorial
disputes are inevitably about identity, rights and citizenship.

MONOECONOMANIA [the Dutch Disease]: oil produces what Karl (1997)
calls the "petrolization" of society: the economy becomes a sort
of a one-horse town, and oil rents reinforce particular patterns
of class power (a nomenklatura, patterns of regional/ethnic
political machines etc), and the boom produces depressive effects
in other non-oil sectors (typically the collapse of agriculture
and of other forms of state revenue generation, i.e. tax
collection, which further deepens the monoeconomic tendencies.

[.....]

Dollar Bill

(10/09/2003; 20:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110123)

*>*............+

-"An article in the October 6 issue of U.S. News and World Report was entitled "Home Economics." The newest wrinkle is interest-only mortgages, where your monthly payment never includes any money for repayment of the principal. At the end of the loan, if you borrowed $100,000, you still owe $100,000. In the meantime, you have made monthly payments that are as little as half as big as a conventional mortgage loan, which always had that extra money per month that went toward the outstanding principal"

Thanks Sir Camel, Leave it a guy (like buddha) who is frustrated with not finding any way to merge inside with this "real self" to direct us to do the impossible and seek the "emptyness".

Kind of insulting to the god who evolved a creation over 15 billion years and filled every empty space with something,
for us to be looking for the emptyness !

Cytek

(10/09/2003; 20:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110124)

Question for the pro traders on this site

I should re-phrase that because most of the posts i read here and respect are from Pro trades.

Ok,here is what happended to me.

I bought a stock at 27.35 and went to sell it at 28.28 so i entered my limit order to sell and i got a message from my trading site (Ameritrade) that the application server was busy and to try again.

So i placed the sell order agian, but this time it told me i was shorting the stock. I checked my opened orders and there was nothing there. So i sent the order again.

Well what do you know i get my previous sell order at( 500 shares @ 28.35)immediately and then i get a notice that i am short the stock (500 shares @ 28.28) yikes, the same amount.

So if i can put this right, i sold short the shares i had a sell order on and became short the stock all in one trade.
Incredible, i didn't know you could do this. The lucky thing for me is the stock continued to drop and i covered at 27.90.

Can someone please help me out. If you can do this, well i just fell on a strategy. But the question is will it work like this again.

Cytek

Max Rabbitz

(10/09/2003; 20:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110125)

Interesting Guano

Cheap energy drives the hairless ape mad. How else could socialism have survived. Yes, but don't excuse completely the bankers from their part. Perhaps like any organism genetically programed to survive and grow these creatures simply did what increased their power while innocents slept, or were making their way home to the Midwest for Christmas while New England banker friends dallied in Washington on that fateful day in 1913. In any case, the huge explosion in human populations made possible by cheap hydrocarbons will likely result in another bottleneck in human populations and evolution at the end of this era. The last one appeared to by about 70,000 years ago when a major volcanic caldera explosion killed off all but a few thousand humans.....at least according to a NOVA program a couple months ago. Let's hope that if there is another bottleneck we come out with a little higher IQ.

GratefulForGold

(10/09/2003; 20:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110126)

steady @110114 � "Ecoism"

I appreciate your attempts at re-stating your post!

Admittedly, I have only lightly read it (running late today and many things to do), I think I understand at least some of it and would say, if I were to give it a slogan: "Power to the People!"

Yes, I also believe INDIVIDUAL ownership of gold is, at this point in history, something that governments should encourage (with the caveat that it is not with the intent to "confiscate" said gold down the road...). Any political leader facing a potentially disastrous economic future could foresee that gold (and silver) in citizens� possession could help that citizenry withstand many severe economic downturns. So, without openly telling people "Save your a$$ � go buy GOLD!" (which undermines the very fiat those governments print) these governments, by changing of laws and regulations, or reduction of taxation, etc., could encourage private ownership (a la China). A tricky deal to say the least � protecting the fiat while allowing gold to take its necessary place in the course of human events!

Perhaps you're saying that ecoism is more a matter of INDIVIDUALS taking responsibility and simply doing it, with or without the governments' "blessing" or support. IMO, that is what is happening (thanks to the Internet?). So, in that frame of reference, your ecoism is well underway! I trust the individualistic or "ecoistic" nature of at least a few individuals scattered around the world to also take into account all of the other assets that are necessary to survival (the other commodities, etc.) and they will help in the valuation of all things.

It seems to me that the main thrust of your post relates to individual responsibility. Also the hope of mutually beneficial relationships in trade and commerce rather than thievery. That's where this Forum serves its highest purpose. Admittedly, few amongst us will take that step. But those that do will help ensure their own well being and, hopefully, a broad circle of those they love.

I hope I haven't insulted you with my interpretation of what I think I read in your post! Ecoism is afoot, for sure. The more individuals that decide they can't trust governments or anyone to "take care of them," the more recruits show up at places like USAGOLD! And the USAGOLD Forum certainly does not adhere to nationalistic boundaries!

Thank you for your efforts! Your sincerity shines.

(One more minor suggestion � have you discovered "Spell Check" on your computer? If you click on the "Tool" button up on your tool bar, you come up with Spell Check. It will point out many spelling errors, etc. to you so you can correct them. It doesn't do miracles but it helps!)

My best,

Lady GFG

Druid

(10/09/2003; 20:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110127)

Belgian (10/09/03; 03:21:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110073)

Sir Belgian, I interpret this action more along the same lines you are reasoning. Given the time frame from the early 70's to the present, there has been ample time and opportunity to introduce "Baskins Robbins" flavored "money" to the "sheep" at large. Why now? The activity of counterfeiting is as old as antiquity itself, so please, go sale this bs to some other serf. This one's not buying it.

The credit and fiat monsters worldwide are drunk, loose, delusional and out of control. Now it just so happens that our particular monster is the biggest and most belligerent of them all and is fixing to urinate all over the place leaving many others wet (holding the proverbial bag).

In my mind's eye, I don't think this is a good thing. If the world currency interdependence is destroyed, and it appears the trend lines reflecting this financial outcome are in place, and revert back to the nation state model(or creat a new trading block model), then a dual currency system is the way to go.

If I did not misread the article that I referred to last night, this "new" currency was in addition to what was already out in circulation. So, does this increase the existing money supply thereby further debasing it or does it start a new "money supply" as we gradually phase in the other denominations? It appears that they're trying to transition from one existing dollar system to another one.

Bugs, think parallel systems, supply, demand and quantity. Also, they could be trying to factor in a significant write down in perceived "wealth"(inflation) all across the asset board and make the transition not so painful. This would not be in our favor.

spotlight

(10/09/2003; 21:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110128)

Russia to price oil in Euro

Can anyone confirm what is on the Kitco Discussion group about Russia pricing oil in Euro's. If this is true, isn't this a major event that should send financial shock waves around the world? What country would want to hold dollars?

GratefulForGold

(10/09/2003; 21:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110129)

Speaking of "pricing in euro"

Recently, our sister forum (not Kitco) had a discussion regarding SA gold stocks and their current weakness possibly due to the strong Rand.

Another post mentioned Russia pricing oil in Euros. Still, yet, a later thought of what would be the effect if the SA gold miners priced their product in Euros rather than US$.

Does anyone here have a thought on that (the miners pricing in Euros)? Feasible? If so, the effect?

Thank you, kind sirs, for any thoughts!

Lady GFG

Druid

(10/09/2003; 21:43:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110130)

France warned for breaching euro pact

http://www.guardian.co.uk/eu/story/0,7369,1059040,00.htmlSnippet:

"France was told by the European commission yesterday that it faces disciplinary action after failing to cut its budget deficit in line with eurozone rules.
In a terse and low-key statement Brussels declared that Paris had taken "no effective action" to get spending under control since a reprimand in June. It is the first time such a notice has been issued to a member of the single currency."

Druid: Like I've said in the past, I'm so glad I'm not in the prediction business.

Liberty Head

(10/09/2003; 21:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110131)

Vote NO on parallel fiat currencies

One entity with direct control over two fiat currencies could only bring more trouble. The relative value of both could seesaw at will. This would make it so much easier to lead sheep to slaughter.
It's another stacked deck scheme favoring the house.
One honest currency is worth more than all the various fiat currencies combined.
One honest currency is all that is ever needed for markets to thrive throughout the planet.
The great part is, you can vote for honest currency as often as you wish. You don't need to organize any recalls and you don't need anyone's permission.
Every time you convert another person to honest money, you receive a bonus.

Best Wishes

Great Albino Bat

(10/09/2003; 22:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110132)

Response to comments on my rant by AEL,

Thanks for the extensive article quoted by you. I will read it carefully; I have not yet read it, but skimmed some parts, and it seems to coincide - more learnedly - with my opinions on Oil and Dehumanization.

Dollar Bill and Cavan Man: about mortgages in Mexico.

Mortgages imply - or used to imply, before the Government Sponsored Entities that are indulging in a monstrosity of lending long and borrowing short - that some people were willing to abstain from spending for thirty years, in the course of which period the debtors who owed the mortgages would pay back the debt to the savers.

The reason there are very few mortgages in Mexico, and those that do exist are fairly short-term and require a large down payment, is that there is no confidence in the enduring value of the money lent by the savers to the debtors.

The absence of quality money is what holds back the mortgage industry. There are some feeble efforts at extending mortgages, but ONLY with government guarantees, which don't amount to much in the way of helping people build their homes.

So, we are back to the need for REAL MONEY, silver or gold or both, for savers to entrust their savings for thirty years to mortgage companies and thus allow the companies to offer mortgages for thirty years.

The question of "the culture" has nothing to do with it. The problem is: money has no quality. This discourages saving, especially long-term savings which should fund mortgages.

Cavan Man: The U.S., with its "advanced credit society", is going to find itself in the same boat with Mexico, once the American people are shocked to find that their money is no better than pesos and becomes rapidly worthless. You will then see mortgage money coming not from its correct source, mass savings of the people, but from government. That is already happening! Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac etc. and a Fed that does nothing to stop their imprudent extension of credit as mortgages.

Since Mexico does not print Dollars, a U.S. monopoly, the government cannot fund mortgages with abandon, such as is happening in the U.S., where there is virtually no limit to credit expansion by the GSE's, as Prudent Bear tells us over and over again.

The reason you are hearing about the dearth of mortgages in Mexico is: the banks that predominate in Mexico are no longer Mexican, the biggest is owned by Citibank, and Citibank and the other foreign banks are salivating at the prospect of mortgages to Hypothecate all of Mexico, BUT, they are insisting that THE PESO MUST GO. They are twisting arms to have the Dollar adopted, and what you read is part of the campaign! Once the peso is ditched and the country adopts the DOLLAR as its currency, they will lend by the billions. More FED slaves. At which time, Mexico will just be another Puerto Rico.

All because Mexico does not have REAL MONEY.

Robert

(10/09/2003; 22:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110133)

sellling oil for dollars

Many of the contributions to this forum deal with the importance of the fact that oil can be bought only for dollars. I have the feeling that this is a vastly overrated issue. Consider the dollar revenue earned by Saudi Arabia in one year. I do not know the precise figure, but that figure must be of the order of 500 billion Dollars per year. In other words, they collect something like 1.5 billion Dollars a day. It could be more or less, but it definitely is less than 10 billion Dollars a day. Compare that figure against the daily volume of Dollars on the foreign exchange market. That figure is roughly 1.5 trillion Dollars a day. In other words, the amount of Dollars earned by Saudi Arabia in one day by selling oil is roughly 1/10 of 1% of the daily Dollar flow on the foreign exchange market. This is such a small amount that selling these Dollars on the FX market for let's say Euros would barely make a dent in the Dollar/Euro exchange rate. Therefore it would make no difference at all to the Dollar/Euro exchange rate if Suadi Arabia decides to immediately exchange their freshly acquired Dollars against Euros or Yens (or any other foreign currency for that matter). It is really difficult to believe that the great looting of the world by the dollar printing presses in the US is sustained by the relatively miniscule amounts represented by payments for oil in comparison to daily total dollar flows on the world financial markets. We hear all the time that gold is undervalued (I agree with that statement). However, what is not emphasized often enough is that oil is extremely undervalued. Think about it: Contrary to gold (which is not consumed at all), oil is a depleting natural resource with incredibly many vital applications, yet you can buy it at the gas station for less than you pay for bottled water in the supermarket. Oil is basically free. We pay only for the cost of transporting and refining it. We do not pay a penny for the cost of depleting this unique asset. For that reason, the whole issue of oil denomination in dollars or euros is in my opinion complete nonsense, more based on financial fantasy than actual economic figures.

Gandalf the White

(10/09/2003; 23:18:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110134)

WHAT ?????

"Now Smeagol is on the side of Giants and Good and Gold, and helps perhaps even if only in little ways. If they tires of us, jusst ssay the word, and Smeagol will use English and Grammar to make possts that look like the others."
********
NEVER !!
Quick the Nazguls have Sir Smeagol under a spell !
We MUST save him !
Quickly find KING Aragorn III
<;-)

Black Blade

(10/09/2003; 23:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110135)

Russian Oil for Euros

I have seen several articles in the last couple of days that suggest Russia will price oil in Euros. It would seem to be a logical course of action as Russia is closer to the EU than the US, at least in term of deliverability of oil and natural gas. The idea has cropped up from time to time and lately the consensus appears to be in favor of pricing oil in Euros. I have also seen denials about the pricing of oil in a currency other than US dollars as well. It is impossible to determine what Russia will do until it actually happens of course. However, if they did make the change over to Euro pricing I for one would not be all that surprised either. Russia has pipelines for both oil and natural gas stretching into Europe and they are the largest consumer of Russian oil.

I did post an essay "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" some time ago. In fact I posted it a couple of times. I wrote the piece before the turn of the century no less and nothing has really changed all that much. What I do find odd is that since then the Saudis has had increasing problems with their largest oil field as more and more brine (essentially salt water) has been increasing as a contaminant and their supposed 13 million bbl/day production capacity has declined to more like 9.2 million bbl/day. Oman has had sharp declines in production as well in spite of all attempts to pressurize the producing fields with oil/water injection, this with the help of British Petroleum (one of the best in the business). The reserves that Iraq had touted to be at about 125 billion bbl of oil appears to have been grossly overblown. The Kirkuk fields in the north have been over produced and now rising contaminants requires that the oil piped to Ceyhan, Turkey must sit in settling tanks to separate out of solution.

That brings us to the extensive but more expensive nonconventional oil resources such as the Orinoco heavy asphalt/oil in Venezuela that requires much more processing and the Athabasca oilsands of Alberta Canada that could hold as much as nearly a trillion bbl of oil. The problem facing the Athabasca oilsands is that a lot of energy must be expended to mobilize this oil, mostly using stranded natural gas as a heat source. That NatGas is being depleted quickly and some NatGas wells were ordered shut in recently. There are plans to pipe NatGas in from the MacKenzie Delta to the north. One other problem is that Canada has signed on to the Kyoto protocols and there are some plans calling for using nuclear energy to generate a heat source for oil extraction.

We are not going to "run out" of oil but we will "run out" of "cheap oil". We truly are addicted to oil and that is why we are collectively known as ""Hydrocarbon Man". Hydrocarbons have changed the face of the world allowing us to do more work with greater results and higher production. Maybe I should repost "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" at some point maybe sometime soon. But remember that we have gone from an agrarian society as we once were (even during the Great Depression) to a urban-suburban society to work in factories and offices rather than the waving fields of grain and large orchards. One thing is clear though and that is US factories and "New Economy" jobs (white and blue collar jobs) are leaving US shores. The US dollar is falling in value as are all currencies in a massive "Currency War" or as some politely prefer "competitive currency devaluation". Note that the price of oil has nearly doubled and gold risen from about $252 and ounce to $370 an ounce. Hard asset currencies are rising against the paper currencies based on "faith and credit" (whatever the hell that is). Also note that the Japanese just raised the debt ceiling limit by about $200 billion for the purpose of weakening the Yen and propping up the Euro and US dollar. This is WAR! It is a "Currency War". Meanwhile the US president and Treasury Secretary naively state that they support a "strong dollar policy". In effect they are saying that they want sky rocketing unemployment in the US with idle factories while jobs and factories move offshore. They really have no choice as the United States is technically bankrupt and the dollar is overvalued by at least 30-40%.

Wow! How easy it is to digress isn't it? Do not be surprised to see hard assets like precious metals, base metals, and hydrocarbons to be priced in currencies other than the dollar. The dollar is effectively just paper backed by absolutely nothing and is locked in a race of devaluation with the Yen and Euro as the major players. Why do you think that physical gold is being purchased by the wealthy and not so wealthy in the Middle East, Far East, and the Indian subcontinent instead of US dollars, euros and yen? I will go into the devaluation issue at another time but for now just be aware that this is a worldwide phenomenon as currencies are plunging and will continue to do so. The US for example has no choice but to fight back and print dollars faster that even imaginable just a few weeks ago. The problem is that the Japanese and Europeans can print just as fast. The only possible outcome is real inflation no matter what tripe the BLS can spit out. When the dollar price of Gold and Silver takes a dip like today then slowly add a few ounces if you can. Maybe a steady "dollar cost averaging" program should be put in place to add to your portfolios. Take advantage at every chance because they sure won't give you a second thought.

- Black Blade

spotlight

(10/09/2003; 23:44:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110136)

Pricing oil in Euro's

Robert:
If you were a foreign central bank chairman, and you had,not trillions of dollars per day in your reserves, but a few hundred billion, such is the case in the world in which we live,and you had the largest part of foreign exchange in a currency which had slid 22% this year so far,and was looking like it was in for a further like slide,Would you not want to diversify out of that currency? Especially since your country is dependent on oil, which is priced in that currency?

It is my opinion that once a major country like Russia makes such a move, it will encourage those dependent on oil,not only in Russia,but world wide, to keep the lyons share of their savings in the Euro,in order to escape the high risk of having to pay for oil at the future exchange rate of $/Euro.

With the Dollar on the down trend, this is one more reason to forget about showing up at the t-debt auctions by world central banks. A German official stated recently, He is
hoping for an orderly decline of the dollar...time will tell.

Robert

(10/09/2003; 23:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110137)

Russia and oil euros

Regardless whether Russia decides to price its oil in Euros or Dollars, please keep in mind that the GDP of Russia (which includes all the earnings due to selling oil abroad) is peanuts in comparison to the GDP of the US or western Europe or Japan. The numbers involved are not really significant.

Black Blade

(10/09/2003; 23:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110138)

AT MERRILL, ONE ECONOMIST WHO'S TELLING THE TRUTH

http://www.nypost.com/business/7625.htm
Snippit:

October 9, 2003 -- DAVID A. Rosenberg may be headed for trouble. But not the kind of trouble that Wall Street researchers have become accustomed to lately. Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, is an economic heretic who lately has been straying often from the investment community's script about the improving health of U.S. businesses. I find his reports refreshing, if not startling, because they are coming from inside the world's biggest brokerage firm. But I'm sure the folks on Wall Street don't share my enthusiasm.

In the first report, Rosenberg concluded that the money being spent on computers and other technology by businesses is nowhere near what is being reported by the government. "What if we were to tell you that in nominal terms, business outlays on computers/peripherals has only risen $15 billion from the recession trough?" - and not the $133 billion the government pretends - Rosenberg says. The economist notes that the tech spending "accounted for 30 percent of the overall increase in GDP, so the economy ex-computer expenditures has only risen at a 2 percent annual rate." The government is officially reporting GDP at nearly twice that rate. (Note: We also can account for this in the BLS accounting standards as "Hedonic deflating").

In his Oct. 3 report, Rosenberg took the recent job figures to task. While nearly everyone else on Wall Street was cheering news that 57,000 new jobs were created in September - the first increase in eight months - Rosenberg told clients, "This was not a strong report in and of itself and we shouldn't let the shock factor of a '+' sign confuse matters." Why was it really weak? The Merrill economist offered 10 concerns about the government report, including the fact that more companies are still cutting workers than adding them; that the drop in hourly wages shows "income growth is sluggish;" and that the number of people who only have a part-time job because they can't find full-time work soared last month.

Black Blade: Yes indeed! I myself have mentioned these same concerns. The official record is that the unemployment is 6.1%, while the numbers I see in the report suggest something more in line with 9.3% as once benefits stop or those looking for work have given up looking as there is no work to be found. The numbers get worse somewhere above 12% when part time workers are added in (by my measure to cut that work force in half). Granted these are rough back of the envelope calculations but one must actually read the BLS reports and ignore the BS part of BLS statistics. It really ticks me off when people abuse and misuse statistical analysis to reach a desired outcome. There are so many filters (hedonics, seasonality, imputed income, ejecting "anomalies" at will, etc.) and various ways to "massage" the data. Few on Wall Street are intelligent enough to notice but the average Joes like you and me can at least read and add. It really is an ugly picture. One point quick point here � we are nowhere close to reaching the highs of the three major stock indices. So does this really mean we are in an economic recovery or just a rally by desperate investors trying to recover losses from the "stock mania bubble"? If so, then we have a long way to go just to "break even". I consider it nothing more than a "suckers rally" as corporate insiders are bailing out. It just does not pass the smell test. Oh yeah, CNBC reporter Steve Liesman was at White Sulfur Springs today and said that CEOs at the "Roundtable" do not see any sign of economic recovery while Wall Street economics do see an economic recovery. Now that's some "disconnect".

Black Blade

(10/10/2003; 00:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110139)

Oil For Euros

I don't think it really matters what currency oil is priced in but it is a matter of prestige. Should other nations do the same, especially the EU then it cut down the US dollar a notch as the world's premier reserve currency. It could just be the beginning of a trend. Just something to consider as the dollar is the reserve currency of choice for now.

- Black Blade

Waverider

(10/10/2003; 00:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110140)

Putin's idea to price oil in euros may hurt dollar

http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=031010000913&query=oil+in+euros&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=FormFinancial Times: Oct. 10, 2003
"Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, floated the idea of pricing his country's oil in euros - a gesture towards Europe that could further drive down the value of the dollar and would have significant consequences in the oil and currency markets...The US and European Union are competing for initiatives over energy co-operation in Russia as they try to diversify supplies away from the Middle East and build stronger economic links with the nation, the world's second largest oil producer and its largest holder of natural gas reserves..."If Russia makes this move, it will be a reorientation of its economy towards Europe and this would add to upward pressure on the euro," said Mr Lewis."

Waverider: Black Blade - where would this leave China? I believe that Russia is also a supplier to China and is in process of building a Russia-China oil pipeline. China too would pay in euros, requiring China to hold a larger portion of euro reserves - yes?

Black Blade

(10/10/2003; 00:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110141)

Russia may switch oil prices to euros-German source

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/energy_russia_euro_3.html
Snippit:

YEKATERINBURG, Russia, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A German government source said on Wednesday that Russia may switch to pricing oil sales in euros rather than dollars, potentially huge news for financial markets. However, Russian energy and finance ministry officials said they were unable to confirm any change was planned. "The question is taking on increasing significance," said a government official travelling with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on an official visit to Russia, referring to the possibility of a switch in the traditional energy currency. Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most traded commodity and the success of a long campaign by Europe to get oil priced in euros. It could deal a blow to U.S. economic prestige, as well as the strength of the dollar on foreign exchange markets.

Black Blade: This is just one such report of oil for euros. No one is confirming or denying the reports it would be a logical step for the Russians but in my opinion it's a non-issue, however, it could be a response to what most of us already know and that is the US dollar is grossly over valued against the other major currencies an a switch could ultimately be a profitable venture in time. The US dollar must devalue and the Fed is aggressively working in that direction only to be foiled by officially sanctioned currency intervention by competing currencies.

Black Blade

(10/10/2003; 00:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110142)

Waverider - China and Oil

China recently failed in a bid to buy out a Russian oil producer (I don't recall which one). They are still in the hunt though. They also recently cut a deal with Iran as did Japan. Both countries are so top-heavy with US dollar and Euro reserves that for them the situation is a non-issue in my opinion. It has been rumored that China has been accumulating gold to diversify reserves and recently Russia expressed a desire to raise their official gold reserves to 10% if they could. Regardless, the currency war is far from over. So far the US dollar has been on the losing end as jobs and manufacturing flee US shores.

- Black Blade

Druid

(10/10/2003; 00:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110143)

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (10/09/03; 04:16:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110074)

"Are we talking exchange controls here?"

Druid: WAC, maybe not initially but in my book, it's a step in that direction. Maybe I'm reading this wrong but this does not surprise me given our country's current financial predicament. We'll have to see how the marketing plays out.

As you know, we are in a very interesting chess game. We bugs have the better logic, arguement and understanding of how our financial system SHOULD work. However, the opposition has the ability through POLITICAL WILL to make us appear too our fellow countrymen like we have three eyes and hail from a galaxy far far away. This is the power of print(mainstream press), the parrot box, nice hair and a nice suit. It is EXTREMELY difficult to over come these obstacles with logic and reason.

DummyANI

(10/10/2003; 01:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110144)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

spotlight

(10/10/2003; 02:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110145)

Gold trade reports

Dummy Ami:
Could you include a brief analysis with your gold trade reports?

DummyANI

(10/10/2003; 04:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110146)

@spotlight (10/10/03; 02:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 110145)

Mitsui is like to increase his short positions in the case of a rising gold-price and a declining gold-price.
When a gold is in a up-trend, Mitsui�fs strategy is very efficient, but the gold is in a down-trend, Mitsui is losing in his trade.

The current Mitsui short positions are abnormally huge in the down-trend, and my astronomical calculations indicate that today (Oct. 10-th) is a changing date of gold-price, I think that COMEX-gold will return to the final 5-th up-leg from here to about $425 per ounce until Nov. 7, 17, or 25.

D-ANI:

silvercollector

(10/10/2003; 07:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110147)

USD in dive mode!!!

Red Alert!

Dollar makes new low at 91.34.

Gold to 'limit up' today, I might say! Is that okay?

Have a golden day!

tyro

(10/10/2003; 08:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110148)

currency devaluation

In "The coming currency devaluation" by Cliff Droke, it says:

"�coin dealers are under a strict Treasury regulation and must report your sales of some coins but not others. The rule is as follows: Coins with a premium above 15% do not have to be reported. In addition to the 1099 report, filed by the coin dealer, you have to declare any capital gains as well."
He continues, "The existence of this rule, I believe, indicates an intent to outlaw the ownership of bullion coins altogether! However, the rule will not remain at 15% necessarily and could be changed to a higher percentage, which is unknown at this time. Obviously, you do not want to own any investment coins with a premium of 15% or less and better stay at the 25% or 30% level to be safe." Patterson points out that complications for the government would clearly arise should numismatic collectibles be forcibly confiscated since the bullion coins' value can be determined by the London gold fix, but not so for collectibles. "The price of the collectible coin may or may not be easily determined as numismatic valuables are routinely auctioned off at prices of not only tens of thousands of dollars, but hundreds of thousands of dollars per item," he observes. "It is difficult to imagine just how this would all be sorted out by the bureaucracy to come up with a calculation of compensation that would relate to the market value." He advises staying in the "safe zone" and exchanging bullion coins not needed for emergencies (such as food or gasoline shortages, et al) for numismatic coins with higher premiums."

tyro: Would someone explain this more for a newbie? Especially about "a premium of 15%. Link not provided because of this forum's rules.

Great Albino Bat

(10/10/2003; 09:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110149)

Tyro: WATCH OUT if you play with numismatic!!

You must be quite clear about numismatic coins. If you buy one, you are in the antiques business, not in the GOLD OWNERSHIP BUSINESS. You want to be an antique dealer? Buy numismatic coins.

Sure, you can make a lot in antiques, you might find a kinder tax treatment, but - you are in another business, not in the gold ownership business.

Antiques have strong ups and downs. When prices of goods are rising in boom times ("inflation") then antiques go up far and fast. Great! When times get rough, antiques are the first to stall out.

Same thing will happen to numismatic coins. Just when you need the money, in a crisis, is when numismatic coins that cost you a fortune, will go begging for peanuts.

The GAB.

Max Rabbitz

(10/10/2003; 10:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110150)

Tyro - 15% Gold Reporting Rule

Cliff Droke doesn't say what rule this is. As far as I can determine there is no such rule. Perhaps in the future, but for now the only rule on reporting is if $10,000 cash is used, same as for other purchases....If I'm not mistaken. Perhaps Sir MK could comment.

Robert

(10/10/2003; 10:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110151)

oil and gold

There are various estimates for the total amount of conventional oil contained in the crust of the earth. The most optimistic estimates are around 3 trillion barrel oil, but the average estimate is only 2 trillion barrel of oil. That figure includes not only oil to be discovered in the future but also all the oil extracted and burned in the past 100 years. Since one barrel of oil equals 42 gallons of oil, the original oil endowment of our planet can be visualized as a tank containing 84 trillion gallon of oil. To get a better feel how large that tank actually is, let's imagine the tank to be a perfect cube. Doing a simple calculation on a pocket calculator, I arrive at the conclusion that this tank has a volume of 77 cubic miles which means that all the oil of the world (already burned in the past or to be burned in the future) fits into a cube of dimensions 4 miles times 4 miles times 4 miles. Right now the tank is half empty or, if you prefer, half full. (This is called the Hubbert peak of oil production). Unless oil consumption goes down, we will reach the bottom of the tank in roughly 30 years. This means that the oil in the tank goes down every day by 20 inches (half a meter for our Canadian and European friends) - that is, 20 inches represents our present daily consumption of oil which includes heating, traffic, petrochemical industry and all the other numerous and important applications of oil (there are too many of them to be listed here).

Another way of visualizing the total oil endowment of the world is to calculate the share of oil per world citizen. The world population is presently around 6 billion which means the there were originally only 14,000 gallons of oil per person. Since half of that oil is already gone, only 7,000 gallons of oil per person is left for discovery and extraction. If you drive 20,000 miles a year using a typical car (making 20 miles per gallon), your remaining share is consumed in just 7 years of driving. These numbers are indeed stark and they do explain why we are in the midst of truly extraordinary historic times.

Now let's take a look at gold. According to what I have read on this and other gold forums, all the gold mined in the past 5000 years comes down to 120,000 tons. Since gold is a very dense material (19300 KG per cubic meter), the volume occupied by all that gold is very small. It works out to 6200 cubic meters. In other words, all the gold of the world ever mined would fit a perfect cube of 20 times 20 times 20 meters (roughly 60x60x60 feet). This is the volume of a large barn. Contrary to oil, this gold stash does not get smaller in time. In fact, it grows year by year, at a present rate of roughly 2,000 tons per year (or 10 cubic meters per year). Except for jewelery, gold is pretty much useless. We admire it as a symbol of wealth. Beyond that it is basically a religious object. People on this forum call it "wealth". However, our life quality today depends to a very large extent on cheap and plentiful oil. We do not need gold in order to live well. However, without oil our future survival is very much in question. If there would not be cheap oil, most likely I (and everybody else on this forum) would not be able to waste our life on the internet by entertaining ourselves with speculations about dollars, euros, gold and oil. (to be continued - must go back to work now)

Druid

(10/10/2003; 11:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110152)

Solomon Weaver (10/9/03; 10:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 110095)

"So, conspiracy theorists....let's keep an eye on the new dollar....and raise our voices that it should be backed by gold...as many other nations will soon do."

Druid: Sir Solomon Weaver, I enjoy reading your insights. If I might play devil's advocate: if I have amassed a great fortune over generations under a past paper currency standard, what incentive do I have to change the formula? Why would I not want to repeat the same experiment?

VanRip

(10/10/2003; 11:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110153)

More Droke

Droke also quotes Patterson with the following:

(snip)

Patterson states, "I want every one...to think carefully about this...because we are coming very, very close to the end of the freely convertible domestic dollar. The cut in value could be as much as 50%...I believe those holding gold bullion bars offshore and bullion coins domestically will be very surprised to find that special regulations will prohibit them from profiting."

--------(insert Tyro's paragraph from post 110148 below)

He continues, "The existence of this rule, I believe, indicates an intent to outlaw the ownership of bullion coins altogether!

(Van Rip) I hate to see the old confiscation bit (if that's what's implied) being brought up again, even in a one-liner. Just enough to worry the small pea shooters like me who have a small collection of bullion coins as insurance in case the walls cave in and all sources of fiat dry up. If "they" decide to take it or at the least punish us somehow for having it, then what?

When I was a boy during the depression, I learned pretty quick that a small sack of apples or potatoes or carrots that my father grew would trade every four days or so for a half gallon of raw milk from an old guy with a couple of cows a bike ride away. At least you could count on it and other swaps elsewhere week in and week out. And now I look at my coins and wonder. Goodbye security? Goodbye insurance? Goodbye wealth?

Apparently, Patterson hasn't read all the stuff that say's confiscation can't happen again, not here. If he has, he isn't buying it.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/10/2003; 12:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110154)

The fruit of your labor: exchange today's value for TIMELESS value!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

glennh10

(10/10/2003; 12:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110155)

Gold & Numismatics

Personally, I would avoid coins having a high numismatic premium, unless you are truly interested in coin collecting. If you're a coin collector, then your coins have a purpose beyond wealth protection (a hobby). For wealth protection, focus on the gold and silver itself.

Can/will the gov't impose some restrictions that negatively affect bullion-class gold? Well, historically governments have done far more than that to their citizens, so, I would say, potentially, anything is possible.

I just try to stay informed (which is greatly helped by the many knowledgeable folks here at USAGOLD and this forum), and prepare accordingly. For myself, that has meant accumulating some gold and silver, as well as preparations that other contributors here have recommended.

specie-man

(10/10/2003; 12:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110156)

Gold: useless ?? Silver: critical ??

Robert wrote:
"Except for jewelery, gold is pretty much useless. We admire it as a symbol of wealth. Beyond that it is basically a religious object. People on this forum call it "wealth". However, our life quality today depends to a very large extent on cheap and plentiful oil. We do not need gold in order to live well. However, without oil our future survival is very much in question. "

I agree on the oil part. Oil (cheap/abandant/safe energy) has allowed the human population to swell far beyond what it otherwise would have been able to reach. Take away the oil, and there MUST be a *significant* downward adjustment of the human population (ala www.dieoff.com).

Gold has traditionally been used for jewelry and ornamentation. Man has always placed a high value on ornamentation (and thus gold). Antiques, paintings, art, etc. are also valued highly - in a similar fashion to gold. One could argue that an expensive painting is useless. Gold is highly-valued because it endures. A 3000 year-old artifact made of gold will look just like the day it was made. A 3000 year-old painting, on the other hand, will have degraded considerably.

Gold has many important uses ! But it is just too expensive (valuable) for many of them. Gold is very important in electronics, for example. The Colorado state capitol building dome is covered in 24K gold leaf. They figure that they have actually saved money over the years because the gold is low maintenance - any other surfacing (paint, etc.) would need frequent re-work.

But the issues you bring up are why I like silver. Silver is used much more than gold in industry (the lower price helps !). Silver stockpiles are currently very low compared to gold. When the real energy crisis hits, silver could become very important for it's properties:

1. Highest reflectivity of any metal (solar mirrors).
2. Highest electrical conductivity of any metal (power transmission, superconductors).
3. Highest light-sensitity of any metal (solar cells).
4. Highest thermal conductivity of any metal (heat exchangers).

Not to mention silver's germ/bacteria/mold killing capabilities without being toxic to humans (water purification, etc.).

21mabry

(10/10/2003; 13:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110157)

Banks

Just got back from doing some banking.There was a sign in the bank stating they would only give a customer up to 1000 dollars in cash anything over would have to be deposited or they would not cash the check.This is in toledo ohio area.Whats up with that.21

HighPtFarm

(10/10/2003; 13:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110158)

Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US

Can anyone confirm this report? I picked it up on another site. If it's true, the currency implications are HUGE and oil/gasoline prices here in the USA are GOING UP.

Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels
money.telegraph
(Filed: 10/10/2003)

Russia is to start pricing its huge oil and gas exports in euros
instead of dollars as part of a stragetic shift to forge closer ties
with the European Union.

The Russian central bank has been amassing euros since early 2002,
increasing the euro share of its $65 billion (�40 billion) foreign
reserves from 10pc to more than 25pc, according to the finance ministry.

The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading
to a fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and
sending Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of
greenbacks into euro notes.

German officials said Chancellor Gerhard Schroder secured agreement
for the change-over on oil pricing from Vladimir Putin, the prime
minister, while on a trip to Russia this week.

The two leaders have forged a close personal bond and are both keen to
check American economic and diplomatic power.

Mr Putin was coy about German media reports on the deal yesterday but
acknowledged that Russia was exploring the idea. "We do not rule out
that it is possible. That would be interesting for our European
partners," he said.

A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of oil
but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and
have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar
is already under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest
natural gas reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi
Arabia.

Yesterday the dollar recovered slightly against the yen and euro, but
the IMF and the European Central Bank both warn that America's
ballooning current account deficit, now over 5pc of GDP, will lead to
further declines.

Oil is seen as so central to the global power structure that the
choice of currency used for pricing has acquired almost totemic
significance. The switch from pounds to dollars after the Second World
War has come to symbolise sterling's demise as a world reserve currency.

If the dollar were ever displaced by the euro, it would lose the
enormous freedom it now enjoys in running macro-economic policy.
Washington would also forfeit the privilege of exchanging dollar notes
for imports, worth an estimated 0.5pc of GDP.

Maxim Shein, from BrokerKreditService in Moscow, said the switch to
euros makes sense for Russia since it supplies half of Europe's energy
needs. But the move is also part of a global realignment stemming from
the Iraq war, which threw Russia, Germany and France together into a
new Triple Entente.

"Abandoning the dollar is tantamount to a curtsey to the EU," he said.
For now, IMF figures show the dollar remains king, accounting for 68pc
of foreign reserves worldwide compared with 13pc for the euro.

http://www.money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/10/10/cno=
il10.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2003/10/10/ixfrontcity.html

specie-man

(10/10/2003; 14:05:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110159)

Gold, Numismatics, Confiscation

A precedent for the confiscation of gold has already been set in this country. In 1933, FDR ordered citizens/banks/corporations to turn in their gold. The initial executive order declared that all gold bars and coins must be sold to the government at face value (US coins), or the current fixed price per ounce (bars). After serious objections were raised, the order was changed to allow people to hold "numismatic" gold coins and medals (actually, anything minted before 1933). So all those common US $20 gold coins were legal to hold (except for the 1933 $20 coins - they were never released by the Mint but a few were smuggled out). Initially, Kruggerands were illegal to hold because they were minted after 1933. That changed in 1974 (Nixon did at least one thing right).

So if someone wanted a numismatic safeguard for their gold purchases, the $20 gold double eagles would be a good idea. They are really neat coins, containing nearly an ounce of gold (.9675 troy), and they trade for a relatively small premium over bullion.

I have not heard of any "15% numismatic premium" business to avoid confiscation. This whole issue is a quagmire ! What about the modern US Gold Eagles ? Surely the proofs carry a 15% (or higher) premium, as do some of the high-grade regular issues (PCGS/NGC/etc. MS 69 & 70). Who is going to sort all this out ?? Nobody.

The government is not above confiscating private property, especially if the ignorant masses don't object. If the government got into such a bind, I believe that they would either enact draconian measures to confiscate ALL gold (as well as many other assets), or, more likely, they would enact something like they did in 1933 - the confiscation of all gold bars, mainly going after the large documented (traceable) holders.

But here is an important aspect to consider:

THE GOVERNMENT IS NO MORE LIKELY TO CONFISCATE GOLD THAN THEY ARE TO CONFISCATE OTHER TYPES OF ASSETS !

I can see oil and farmland being confiscated before gold. Paper money can be "confiscated" through inflation. Paper money can be "confiscated" by simply declaring it worthless. Gold, on the other hand, is nearly impossible to confiscate from small-quantity holders because it is compact, portable, and in many cases, untraceable.

The NRA has been able to avoid the wholesale confiscation (and even registration) of firearms.

What we need is something like a National Gold Association ("NGA") that will stand up and shout loudly: "NO GOLD CONFISCATION !". And they need to do it BEFORE the bad stuff hits the fan.

Now is the time to be pre-emptive !

IF ALL OF US STAND UP NOW AND DECLARE THAT WE WILL NEVER TURN IN OUR ASSETS, NO MATTER WHAT, THEN THE GOVERNMET WILL LIKELY NOT PURSUE GOLD CONFISCATION. The government can ill afford to turn millions of citizens into crimminals at the stroke of a pen.

Here is a useful argument for our cause:

Citizens in China can (or will soon be able to) buy gold bullion at their local banks. If Americans were not allowed to own gold bars, then that would mean that citizens of communist China have more rights than American citizens do ! That fact would/should be a "wake-up call" for the public to demand changes.

Waverider

(10/10/2003; 14:06:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110160)

Putin: Why Not Price Oil in Euros?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/10/001.html"President Vladimir Putin said Thursday Russia could switch its trade in oil from dollars to euros, a move that could have far-reaching repercussions for the global balance of power -- potentially hurting the U.S. dollar and economy and providing a massive boost to the euro zone."

Waverider: HighPtFarm - this from the Moscow Times - also please see yesterday's postings here at USAGOLD by Black Blade. Haven't seen your handle before - welcome!

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/10/2003; 14:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110161)

Page Update!

HighPtFarm

(10/10/2003; 14:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110162)

Greetings to All on this Fine Board

Greetings to the particpants of what I regard as the best Gold Board on the internet. I have been reading the postings from this board for the last six months. I copy the days postings and read them every night. I have walked the trail and attempted to take in the wisdom of Another and Friend of Another. Fascinating is the only description appropriate for the board content in context to events of the day. Everyone, thanks the great posts and to CPM for providing the forum. I have much to learn. Chuck

Black Blade

(10/10/2003; 14:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110163)

Robert - Gold and Oil

Quote: "Except for jewelery, gold is pretty much useless. We admire it as a symbol of wealth. Beyond that it is basically a religious object. People on this forum call it "wealth". However, our life quality today depends to a very large extent on cheap and plentiful oil. We do not need gold in order to live well."

I take it you haven't traveled very extenesively. In most countries I have had the opportunity to work gold is valued over currency. In fact Gold and Silver are the currencies of choice by nearly two thirds of the planet's population. Sure, the stash of gold grows but the earth's population grows much faster leaving less gold per person than in the past. When I show a dollar bill to many people in the Third world and explain that this is "money" they either laugh or are completely dumbfouned. Others when asked what they prefer - dollars or gold the answer is almost always "Gold". Granted my travels have been confined to Asia, former Soviet states and South America. But they are just an example of the burgeoning Third world. Many nuy their gold and silver in the form of silver because of either the laws or to keep on their person for safety.

- Black Blade

HighPtFarm

(10/10/2003; 14:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110164)

Thank You, Waverider

Yes, I have read through the various reports that Russia may want euros for their oil, but this report out of Brussels seems to suggest that it's a "done deal". That is a new twist in the story and I was wondering if anyone here could confirm this report. Perhaps Belgium has heard something?

Cavan Man

(10/10/2003; 14:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110165)

Courtesy of Bill Bonner @DR

Bill, I hope to have the pleasure of meeting you in N.O.The Nasdaq is selling at 8 times SALES...but stocks went up yesterday.

Even at Wal-Mart, the people who know what they are doing are selling stock...but the lumpeninvestoriat takes no notice; the dumb money keeps buying.

Asians work for 1/5th to 1/10th the wages of Americans. And Asians economies are growing 2 to 3 times faster than the U.S.. Still, Asian stocks are priced much lower than stocks on Wall Street.

The U.S. is running a current account deficit of about $1 million PER MINUTE...but the dollar rose yesterday.

The average American is deeper in debt than at any time in history...but consumer spending just rose at the fastest pace in 18 months.

The Moscow Times reports that Russia, the world's second- largest oil exporter, is considering shifting its oil dealings from the dollar to the euro...but the price of the euro fell against the dollar yesterday.

As a percentage of family income, house prices have risen nearly 50% since the early 70s. Houses are selling for such high prices that fewer and fewer people can afford them...but the price of the median house continues to rise five times faster than income.

The U.S. army is the greatest offensive military force the world has ever seen. But it has been placed in a position where it is forced to DEFEND itself against desert tribes...and the price of gold still dropped more than $6 yesterday.

Meanwhile, the world's only super-power seems to be at war with ITSELF over what to do next, both on the economic front and in the Iraqi front. It is running a budget deficit of more than $1 billion per day...

...and people lend it money as if it were the Eisenhower years.

The more we think about it, the more we love this market...this economy...this world! It gets madder and madder. But imagine how boring it would be if people did the reasonable thing?

Instead, we are treated to the spectacle of investors, economists, homeowners and politicians sitting on stacks of dynamite...and lighting the fuse!

Advice to readers: watch out. Sell the dollar, sell the Nasdaq, sell Treasuries, sell real estate. Buy gold, the euro and Asian stocks.

TownCrier

(10/10/2003; 14:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110166)

Russian government demonstrates political nimbleness

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20031010/bs_dowjones/200310100806000404MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russian Energy Minister Igor Yusufov said Friday that the government won't play an active role in shifting the denomination of oil contracts from U.S. dollars to euros.

*********"It's a decision that will ultimately be made between the buyer and the seller," Yusufov told reporters at a briefing.**********

"I don't see anything negative in going into a euro-based system." Yusufov's statement comes one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that pricing of oil contracts in euros was "possible".

------(from url)-----

Joanne

(10/10/2003; 14:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110167)

(No Subject)

Can anybody tell me if FOA said anything about confiscation? I have been reading him on and off over the years but can't say it's all been crystal clear to me.

Great Albino Bat

(10/10/2003; 14:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110168)

specie-man: with all due respect, please consider

A government that gets into such great difficulties that it has to resort to confiscation of its citizens' gold, is not going to be swayed by any organized protests by the citizenry.

In the present circumstances, which will likely only get worse, citizens' recourse to Law or to public opinion for redress of grievances is doubtful at best, and most probably fruitless. Goldbugs are misunderstood and do not enjoy - for the moment anyway - support of the majority.

So, any joining in a movement to protest confiscation is only going to provide the government with a handy list of persons to call in for questioning and/or delivery of their gold.

In owning gold, you are on your own, a situation which was very familiar to Americans a few generations ago, but which has been forgotten by the mass of people.

Gold represents your own private battle. Keep a low profile.

The GAB

21mabry

(10/10/2003; 15:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110169)

U.S.D

After what I saw at the bank today,I got to thinking.There might not be alot of physical paper in circulation.The vast majority must be electronic digits in cyberspace.I do not know if anyone else has any experience with countefit currency.I have noticed alot of vending machines will not take alot of 5 dollar bills they spit them back out.These bills are relatively new and unwrinkled the machines just will not accept them even though they are set up too.Just makes me think there is alot of funny money out there.I know 20 denomination is the most popular to fake,but these machines have to be tempting targets to hit for 4 bucks in change.21

CoBra(too)

(10/10/2003; 15:53:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110170)

Russian Oil for �? - and other Matters ...

Russian oil is mostly owned by private companies, not so with Russian National Gas, which is still state owned and according to Putin will stay state controlled. Maybe a wise decision as the "Oligarchs" won't be able to take it all, and get away with it.

Putin apparently has made an agreement with chancellor Schroeder to step up deliveries of NG to the EU in exchange for the financing of a new NG Pipeline.

We'll see.

Other important news this weekend will be the ratification of the new EU constitution in Rome. While the small members, including my own country would not too be happy losing a full commiss(ion)ar, I at least would hope for ratification. I guess there will be other political trade offs to facilitate this important goal. Isn't politics all about finding the least possible, though common denominator, the very essence of democracy?

But then, of course, it comes to mind that the greatest democracy we've known so far in mankind's evolution, namely the US of A, has deteriorated to an oligarchy. An oligarchy of financial, industrial and sociological supremacy, supressing the free capital markets it has invented and held supreme for so long.

And, no, I'm not talking about the suppression of the POG, I'm talking about shoring up the US dollar supremacy against all odds and to the detriment of all, and in particular to the detriment of US citizens. Not wanting to rehash and list all the causes for this debacle, suffice to state that more government always leads to less freedom and liberty.

As an aside, being an Austrian I'm kind'a bemused by the California electorate to chose Arnie. OK, he's a smart man, though what does it say about Clifornians? I'd personally prefer the Californians would have have voted to install Austrian economics, along with the rest of the world. And some former and still, even now officially communistic countries, are adopting these theses.

The private ownership of gold has historically assured personal freedom, the liberty of choices and finally gold represents the only tangible wealth, enduring millenia and will survive even the dollar standard.

Sorry for ranting, though I've personally had a good day and made some more FRN's to convert to gold.

Have a great weekend, my friends and knights of MK's oaken table and you won't be bothered by me for some time, as I'll be travelling towards youre shores soon.

Hoping you won't shun me upon my arrival in the capital city
- even if an oz of au is securely sewed into my cape for ultimate pro-(no not de-)tection - stay the course.

May the good tides be with you, godspeed and never forget to get your gold, when its worth more than its weight -

Thank you - cb2

(10/10/2003; 17:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110172)

All....

My previous post on reporting requirements and confiscation, I concluded, was deficient in dealing with some complex subject matter. As a result, I thought it best to strike it until I've had time to deal with the subject more completely.

But I can post a quick comment about reporting requirements:

Reporting requirements are a moot point in my book, since we are all, as American citizens, responsible for taxes on gains irrespective of whether or not a 1099 form has been filed by your gold broker. The 15% rule often quoted in discussions on pre-1933 versus bullion coins is misunderstood and misconstrued. Originally, it was part of a proposed regulation back in 1984. I emphasize the word "proposed." It never became an IRS reg. That wording and reference was dropped when the final regulations were promulgated. In the final wording, the word "commodity" played a very important role, and the final list of reportable items published by the Industry Council for Tangible Assets (ICTA) -- which conducted the negotiations with Treasury -- contained certain specific bullion and coin products for which future's contracts had been approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The philosophy behind the law is that 'commodities' are bought and sold by 'brokers' therefore the reportable items need be associated with the exchanges.

Confiscation is another issue entirely and one considerably more serious than reporting requirements.

cockerel1

(10/10/2003; 17:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110173)

specie-man - msg#: 110159

"IF ALL OF US STAND UP NOW AND DECLARE THAT WE WILL NEVER TURN IN OUR ASSETS, NO MATTER WHAT, THEN THE GOVERNMET WILL LIKELY NOT PURSUE GOLD CONFISCATION. The government can ill afford to turn millions of citizens into crimminals at the stroke of a pen."

specie-man, here in dear old Canada, the government turned over a million Canadians into criminals with the stroke of a pen.

They made law that whomever owned a firearm and did not re-register into the new data-base, were now guilty of breaking the law and considered criminals.(Needless to say, the majority of gun-owners have not re-registered and none of the Provinces support the law. However, the government insists on committing in excess of 1 billion dollars to keep the registration alive. Why, you ask?

Well, Ottawa is the capital city, the seat of government. It is also one of the centres of the Hi-tech industry. Unemployment in Ottawa would not look good for the government. So, all those private hi-tech unemployed, are now government employees.

Problem solved!

Federal_Reserves

(10/10/2003; 17:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110174)

Crude continues to surge today with other CRB components

How bout those stocks holding on too, breaking to new yearly highs this week on good employment news! Yet, as the DOW spiked, GE warned and AA was light on the revenues.

Like to see how the stock boys handle crude at 36 and Gold at 400, along with the CRB spiking to yearly highs! Maybe they'll have to declare another tax cut.

Belgian

(10/10/2003; 18:01:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110175)

@HighPtFarm

Shroeder and Putin discussed the POO (and gas). Schroeder urged Putin to arrange "higher" prices. More on this later.

Gandalf the White

(10/10/2003; 18:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110176)

The Wiz speaks out on "Numismatics" !!!

A number of posts about "investing" coins have been seen and number of ideas have been presented -- Sir Specie-man AND Sir Black Blade were the closest to my thinking, BUT, Sir GAB, I will give MHO if I may !

FIRST -- I feel that numismatics are SECONDARY to first having a goodly sized quantity of BULLION as the core base of your golden wealth INSURANCE !

Secondary, IF you wish to enter the numismatics area, you either MUST educate yourself to the three important areas of numismatics -- WHICH are --- CONTIDION, CONDITION and CONDITION !! You ask -- WHAT is that dumb ol'e Wiz talking about ? -- I am pleased to give an explaination --
CONDITION is the important item of a coin because it is the determining item of VALUE ! Coins that have not been "Graded" are called "RAW" and most that one sees are sold in this "state". Take two gold coins of the same mint, and year (such as a U.S. 1907 Liberty $20 Gold piece). These coins are considered to be one of the most commonly available of the $20 goldpieces. CONDITION is defined in the numismatics field as GRADE ! In the U.S., there are numerous professional GRADING firms that define the GRADE of coins. The two most accepted firms are PCGS and NGC ! ALL coin dealers recognize these two "GRADERS" as a standard of grading quality. Numerous levels of "GRADES" of coins are used, using a point system from one to one-hundred to classify the coin in the the lowest GRADE of say "Poor" (P); "Good" (G) to Very Good (VG); Fine (F); (VF); (XF); at least four levels of Almost Uncirculated (AU) and FINALLY UNCIRCULATED commonly called "Brilliant Uncirculated" in the SEVEN Grades of Mint States 60; 61; 62; 63; 64; 65; 66; and the TOP Grade of MS 67 !!!!! The professional GRADED coins are placed in a air tight plastic container and are referred to as "SLABBED" !

Why is the dumb Ol'e Wiz going into such detail, you ask ?
BECAUSE, IF you are not an experienced person you can be taken advantage of easily as the difference in WHOLESALE value between a MS 60 and MS 64 US 1907 P $20 gold coin is PRESENTLY over $500. and to most sheeple they have no idea of the difference when they look at an UNSLABED or RAW coin. --- MOST important also are CLEANED coins ! The CLEANING of coins MOST of the time decreases the rarity VALUE to that of BULLION! Most people will not be able to determine if a RAW coin has been cleaned with their unaided eyes! AND, there are many FAKE copies of many rare coins that are only able to be AUTHENTICATED as FAKES by the Grading firms. These are mostly held by people until they wish to sell them and THEN they find out that they may not even be worth BULLION value and not the high rarity value in which they thought that they had investigated.
YES, YES, YES ! There are potential hazards in Numismatics !

BUT, in response to Sir GAB, some people are able to make a good living buying RAW gold pieces and having them authenticated and SLABBED and then selling them for good profits. Look at the "dealer" that had the 1933 Saint !
(AND, the Ol'e Wiz that has doubled his monies (six figures) invested in US $20. pieces during the last two years!) OK, enough of this RANT !

AND, If one is able to communicate with the old USA Gold coins, (LIKE the Wiz), they have FANTASTIC stories to tell.

BTW, USAGOLD -- CPM sells SLABBED and RAW USA gold coins !
<;-)

silvercollector

(10/10/2003; 18:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110177)

So.........

how did our obese USD do today?

Looks like support at 91.7 (ish) was cracked a couple days ago, it was taken out Thursday at 91.32 (ish) and after a stellar (feeble?) attempt to generate some steam cracked again today to the tune of 91.28 (ish).

WHEN, NOT IF, the dollar does some serious cracking ala 90.XXX (imagine <90, hee, hee) gold is off to the races.......LARGE!.

Have a golden weekend. Pack your bags at your leisure for the rocket ride 'TO THE MOON "!! Gold will see 4 digits in this decade and then.........then I'm not responsible afterwards.

OUCH!

;)

sc

silvercollector

(10/10/2003; 18:44:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110178)

Robert

Your posts in the last few days contain little latitute in thinking.

"...gold is useless..."

Let's imagine gold at $30,000US/oz. and then check your statement. May we say they represent the 2 ends of the 'gold' discussion?

BB is carefully eluding to a fact; 2/3rds of the planet conceptually at least, view gold as money.

I have worked in a gold mine on the the 23rd level and have held gold in my hand after a stenuous day. Until you have done that pal, you don't have the right to call gold useless. Should we (in particular you) dismiss the fact that 2/3rds of the planet believes in 'gold in hand'?

(I'm trying to present this post in a statement by statement format so that one can follow)

Good luck.

(That old expression about 'giving your head a shake' actually works)

silvercollector

(10/10/2003; 18:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110179)

(No Subject)

..latitude..

Druid

(10/10/2003; 19:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110180)

The issue of confiscation is touched upon....

Druid: ...in past posts.

Date: Tue Nov 25 1997 08:24
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

Mr. Vronsky,
thank you for posting the article by Markus. I, in much the same way must have "ANOTHER" post my thoughts as position will not allow open expression.

Mr. Markus Angelicus,
Checkmate is the end of a game, but in life checkmate is the beginning of freedom! I submit that all of history is full of war. From nations to single persons we all do battle over ownership of things. Some support not war but would kill to keep what is theirs! It would seem that from the day of birth our financial chaos begins. The end of our struggle is reached but for a moment in time as "checkmate" becomes "stalemate" and fortunate and free are the few who find this time in life!

Am I misleading? I submit to you that all of creation is misleading. It is only in the pages of history that we find those who thought the truth! The "facts" of the present are but a wonder to all. Only time will prove all things.

Sir, you write, "Your gold coins in your pocket will become the target of persecution and arrests and you will be forced to accept the world's standard currency. There will be no alternative...you will be unable to trade with your gold because they will have long outlawed both gold and old paper currency...."

In the past many world governments and leaders, far greater than those today have embraced these thoughts. I and my fathers have done battle with such evil and won! For we have 6,000 years of history as our armor!

For those who say gold is not an asset and is dead! I offer you a fact: "Today, as you read this more gold is traded and purchased than at any time in the history of the world." This ancient, world class money from the distant past is now to be the most fought over asset of the future. In war and life, gold will be your "CHECKMATE"!

Robert

(10/10/2003; 19:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110181)

Black Blade: "gold is valued over currency"

You wrote: "I take it you haven't traveled very extenesively. In most countries I have had the opportunity to work gold is valued over currency. In fact Gold and Silver are the currencies of choice by nearly two thirds of the planet's population. Sure, the stash of gold grows but the earth's population grows much faster leaving less gold per person than in the past. When I show a dollar bill to many people in the Third world and explain that this is "money" they either laugh or are completely dumbfouned. Others when asked what they prefer - dollars or gold the answer is almost always "Gold". Granted my travels have been confined to Asia, former Soviet states and South America. But they are just an example of the burgeoning Third world. Many nuy their gold and silver in the form of silver because of either the laws or to keep on their person for safety".

I think you can find many people in this country who would happily accept gold eagles as payment for their work. I for sure, if given the choice, would prefer to take my biweekly paycheck in gold coins (gold eagles or Krugerands - I am not picky). In fact, I would give my employer a discount of 3% to the spot price if he would agree to pay me in physical gold. And I would not be surprised to learn that many people on this forum think similarly. So we do not need to travel abroad to learn that people have a natural preference for the noble metal. By the way, I assume that you took these trips abroad by taking airplane flights. Traveling long distances by plane consumes hundreds of gallons of oil per passenger seat. I assume further that you did not pay for these hundreds gallons of oil in gold coins. Most likely, you paid for these trips (as everybody else) in "worthless" paper Dollars, right? That is precisely what makes this country great. We have the right to pay for valuable resources (like oil and gold) in "worthless" paper money. Third world countries have not reached yet this high level of sophistication on which our society is build. That explains their natural distrust towards all forms of paper money. But in time, they will catch up.

One further remark regarding oil and gold: If we contemplate the cost of mining and refining gold and try to denominate that cost in something intrinsic not related to money (Dollars, Euros etc), then we can not escape the conclusion that the true cost of gold should be expressed in term of energy. Indeed, if energy would be avaiable in unlimited amounts at almost no cost, we could extract gold from the sea water in huge amounts at basically no cost. That would make gold much more plentiful. The relative scarcity of energy makes gold rare. If at all, gold is cheap today because oil is extremely undervalued. That makes the mining of marginal gold ores possible which in turn lead to those 2000 tons of gold "production" per year. The easily mined gold is already gone a long time ago. We passed the Hubbert peak of gold production a long time ago. Once the price of energy goes up significantly, we will witness the collapse of gold production. It is however a mistake to assume that the falling gold production will automatically be accompanied by exploding gold prices. More about that later.

Robert

(10/10/2003; 20:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110182)

silvercollector: "gold is useless"

When using the phrase "gold is useless" I was only refering to the fact that almost all the gold ever mined is still around. This is a widely quoted fact and I am sure that we can both agree on that point. If you look at the mining of other minerals, say oil, almost nothing is preserved. Oil is completely used up within a few weeks after mining. The story is similar with other metals. Iron, copper, zinc etc are mined and consumed. Once used in industrial production, only a very tiny percentage is recycled. Most of these metals end up in the envirorement in form of corroded metal dust. You only have to take a trip by train in order to see with open eyes the wide scale corrosion in our industrial infrastructure. Bridges literaly corrody away. Old industrial buildings are abandoned in order to corrode away. Gold seems to be an exception. One of the reasons is that gold does not corrode easily. However, the main reason is that we do not use a lot of gold in industrial applications. Most of the gold goes straight from the refinary into "deep storage" - either in central banks or in the private treasure boxes of Indian ladies (jewelery). It was precisely this fact which I had in mind when writing about "useless gold". Sorry for the confusion.

You ask me to imagine gold at $30,000US/oz. and then check my statement. OK. Let's consider for a moment the situation where gold is priced at $30,000 per oz. In such a case we have to distingush at least two different scenarios:

1) gold sells for $30,000 per oz while bread at the local grocery sells for $200 per loaf. In this case, I would consider gold a bargain and would continue to buy gold coins.

2) gold sells for $30,000 per oz while bread continues to sell for $2 per loaf. In this case, I would conclude that gold is a exploding Ponzi scheme and I would rush to sell all my coins to the greater fool.

In both cases, I think, the high price of gold would have little effect on the usage of gold. Most of it would continue to end up in gold bars (central banks), coins (collectors) and jewelery (women).

You say: "BB is carefully eluding to a fact; 2/3rds of the planet conceptually at least, view gold as money."

That is precisely my opinion too. Gold is the best money there is. I take only the freedom to add that like all monies, gold is not wealth. Gold is virtual wealth in the sense that it has a purchasing power which allows us to trade it sometimes (but not always) against real wealth.

Elwood

(10/10/2003; 21:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110183)

Confiscation

FOA (12/04/99; 16:31:54MDT - Msg ID:20263)
reply
Leigh (12/04/99; 15:34:26MDT - Msg ID:20261)
Question for FOA

Hello Leigh,
You know,,,,,,,, I have thought for some time that the whole issue of gold confiscation keeps being dragged out to serve special interest. It always comes across with background overtones of: "Americans don't need physical gold, so why bother with the worry". Usually the paper pushing brokerage industry and mining industry enjoy using this angle so as to sell their product.

Like this: " " "it's the foreigners that need the real gold anyway, so let's use their problems as they drive the market higher. That will benefit our paper gold holdings and we gain without thinking about government law changes" " "

See where I'm coming from? Truly, the last time the US called in gold, it was because they needed it to square "official bookkeeping" and create new banking reserves. This happened because we were on a "fixed gold price standard". Had we not been on this, they could have just raised the gold price to $100 without calling any in from the public. It would have achieved the same reserve effect. Honestly, foreign governments did not credit the dollar as worth more because the US robbed gold from someone to pay it's debts?

Then we have the precedent of 1971? Now why on earth would we now take gold from our citizens when we just denied delivering it against the dollar? Because, you say the new price today will be so much higher. Well, they could have marked their gold to $1,000 in 1971 and still not delivered it against dollars. It would have created the same reserve increase the IMF is doing today.

You see, the whole song and dance is about dollar supremacy. If in the near future the dollar reserve function is degraded, the US will have no reason to grab gold from anyone. Hell, they could mark what they already have, market to market. Say $8,000??? Those that run the US political machine will be under the same gun as you and me. Just like a failing Russia, the leaders will be getting their hands on all the gold they can buy and shooting down all laws against private ownership. Let's face it, they won't be able to ship it overseas (foreign exchange controls) so you can bet they will want a good free dealer market for physical: "right here in the go old USA for the benefit of the voting citizens ".

Leigh, the big Western money is going to run for physical as this unfolds and they will be paying up for it with inflated dollars. At prices none of us will understand.

My take on it,,,,,,,,,,,thanks FOA

Great Albino Bat

(10/10/2003; 21:29:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110184)

Robert: You stated: "We have the right to pay for valuable resources (like oil and gold) in "worthless" paper money."

Robert: There is no such "right" to pay for valuable resources in Dollars.

That Dollars are accepted in payment for gold and oil, is a fact, not a right by any means. And facts are temporary phenomena.

Today, Dollars may be accepted for gold and oil. But there is no "right" to have them accepted tomorrow, next week, next month, next year or in five or ten or twenty years.

You continue stating: "Third world countries have not reached yet this high level of sophistication on which our society is build. That explains their natural distrust towards all forms of paper money. But in time, they will catch up."

The monetary and financial structure of the U.S. is not "sophisticated". It is a complicated fraud, which is not the same as sophistication. The complicated fraud is imposed upon the people of the U.S., who do not understand it and who are carefully brought up under a system of instruction (not Education) that does not permit them to acquire the knowledge to understand it.

The Dollar is unquestioned by the people of the U.S., and the U.S. imposed the Dollar upon the world, as a result of victory in WWII and undisputed military superiority.

The Dollar rolls on and on, and many people think this is a permanent state of affairs. You reflect this attitude, in calling the acceptance of the Dollar by the rest of the world, a "right".

The Dollar rolls on and on, because it ONCE WAS A SOLID CURRENCY. It continues on its path (to destruction) as long as its prestige is unblemished, based on its former glory. However, the prestige is today unwarranted. One might say that the Dollar is "running on empty".

This is going to change, and it appears that the change is nearer, day by day.

Gold will then shine once again, with its permanent lustre, as the only real money (besides silver, one day perhaps).

Now, about the impending change, recent news:

Putin has set the stage for Russian oil to be sold for Euros.

First, Putin says it might be possible. In other words, no objection.

Then, the Energy Minister says, it is possible, but we have no position with regard to that, because Russian oil is produced by private companies WHO DECIDE FOR WHAT CURRENCY THEY SELL.

Thus, the change to Euros is "de-politicized". Russia cannot be accused of aggressive measures against the Dollar, because of course, the private companies decide what currency they are going to accept in payment of their oil. Who can be against a strictly free market decision to sell for one currency or another? We are all for free markets, right?

So, the oil for Euros will not be viewed as it was with Iraq, as a political measure - though of course, it will be in fact.

And just to be sure that it is understood that Russia is not Iraq, Mr. Putin stated that the missile force of Russia is fully operational and that Russia is ready to launch a preventive strike, if threatened.

The GAB feels that it is quite likely that some Russian oil will be sold for Euros, and some for Dollars. The Europeans will get their oil for Euros; those who want to pay in Dollars, may do so, too. Big difference from present set-up.

As for GAS, the GAB does not know if Russian gas will also be sold for Euros. It would appear also likely, though, in GAB's opinion.

Guano from the GAB.

steady

(10/10/2003; 21:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110185)

ecoism_ scene one- act two- take one

previously i tried to show how ecoism dervied from capitalism/mercantilism and nationalism.
today a fourth apendage of ecomism sprouted forth.

Laissez-faire

where govt takes its hands off.
where govts want the treasury out of the red
where the govt has gold and silver in its treasury to back its currency.

Russia is practicing ecoism on a natioan level and i am not sure how to label that action. this is not the first time Mr.Putin has spoken about removing the middle man (govt) between large businesses and how they settle there trade accounts!

thats ecoism

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20031010/bs_dowjones/200310100806000404

*********"It's a decision that will ultimately be made between the buyer and the seller," Yusufov told reporters at a briefing.**********

Ten Bears

(10/10/2003; 21:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110186)

Humbert peak

There are various opinions on the amount of undiscovered oil and gas. Large offshore deposits may still be undiscovered. I would be surprised if there are more geophysical research vessels operating now than in the 1960's. Geophysical Service Inc. (Texas Instruments) alone operated a substantial number of off shore crews in that decade. Perhaps it is time for another international geophysical year. Last one 1957 @ 1958

Smeagol

(10/10/2003; 21:40:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110187)

regarding THEFT!, er... sss...' Confisscation'

It iss not the raresst metal in the World - like mosstmetals, it's base worth comes from It's rareness+indusstrial usefulness (which is the way Smeagol THINKS of It, as we thinks of any other metal), but UNLIKE mosst metals, upon It is piled Ages of human attitudes, behaviors, perception, and dreamses. It's rareness+indusstrial worth wouldn't change much, but the perception+politics+greed+beauty+panic+wealth shelter+desire worth changes constantly in hard-to-know ways (which influences what Smeagol DOES with It, regardless of what he THINKS of It). As like, and as unlike, anything else that can be traded, jusst much more sso... O yess.

As for confisscation (legalized plunder), it seems to us that the big Government Eye would be drawn to the mosst obvious thing - nice, shiny coins and bars. Well,in the worsst case, USE the wonderful property of It, to be changed without changing. Smeagol read a story once about a Man named Neils Bohr. He wass a chemist in Germany during the War, and he had a Gold Nobel Prize medallion. He could not leave the country with It because they would have taken It from him. So he dissolved his Precious in aqua regia and left it in a bottle in his lab. After War was over, he came back and It was sstill there, having been ssafely hidden from prying eyes like Hobbitses in elven-cloaks, yess. Then he asked if the Nobel Prize-givers could re-make his medal, and they did, because if the unusual circumsstances.

Our point is, It can always be made into other forms and shapes so as to avoid THEFT and PLUNDER, which iss what confiscation IS!!

S.

P.S. Ach!, No, Gandalf! Smeagol will behave. No Kingsfoil for us, it makes us sneeze for days! Tell Aragorn to keep itchy plants for himself!

Druid

(10/10/2003; 22:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110188)

Great Albino Bat (10/10/03; 21:29:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 110184)

"The monetary and financial structure of the U.S. is not "sophisticated". It is a complicated fraud, which is not the same as sophistication. The complicated fraud is imposed upon the people of the U.S., who do not understand it and who are carefully brought up under a system of instruction (not Education) that does not permit them to acquire the knowledge to understand it."

Druid: GAB, excellent commentary. A friend of mine used to refer to this particular type of monetary setup as the "fool'em, don't fraud'em" type of system. We used to have interesting discussions as what constituted being fooled as opposed to being defrauded. Once again, great post.

melda laure

(10/10/2003; 22:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110189)

Smarter Safer, More Secure..sssssss

I had to laugh when I saw that in the newspaper. Seems the new "motto" is getting around. The new money is about as smart as any other piece of paper- the difference between this new "20" and toilet paper is that TP only gets used once which to my mind makes it a much better value. Given all the germs you come into contact with, you have to wonder: is it really safer? Well, they haven't figured out a design that would keep TPTB from inflating away the value of your paper dollars as of yet. That leaves the more secure aspect. Seems the only thing that is being secured is the franchise of the Fed. You still cant tell one bill from another, loose one and it's gone, it's not like it was one of those travelers cheques.

Inflation: legalized plunder today, legalized plunder yesterday, legalized plunder furever. Nope, I'll take my chances. (Now if I could just make and ounce of gold a bit lighter as well as invisible, that would be oh so handy - half a second, must be the effect of too much drink)

Robert

(10/10/2003; 23:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110190)

GAB: the "right" to pay

Dear GAB, I think you misunderstood what I tried to say. When I said "we have the right to pay" I meant to say, we as a nation have the right to pay for valuable resources with paper. And that is indeed true despite what you have countered. First of all, it is not true what you try to imply that the US Dollar is accepted on world markets on a voluntarily basis. Many countries like Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia are being forced by secret government agreements to accept and hold US Dollars. Japan for instance had to agree at the end of WWII not to accumulate gold instead to hold US Dollars as central bank reserves. Germany had to agree to hold a substantial amount of US Dollars in order to obtain the US protection against the former Soviet Union. Chances are that Saddam would still be in power in Iraq if he would not have made the stupid mistake of challenging the US by announcing that he does not want to accept US Dollars as payment for his oil. As a nation, thanks to the clever policies of our government during the past 60 years, we enjoy a unique position in the world where we can print paper and indeed have the right to pay with that paper for foreign imports. Thanks to ingenious policies of the IMF and the world bank, many nations do not have any choice but must export to the US in order to earn our paper. You can object against that on moral grounds, however, from a purely legal point of view this is indeed our right in the sense that it is legal and that no other nation has this priviledge. Our government has been working hard for many decades in order to achieve that goal and to create that priviledge for us. You may not like that, but this is not a reason to deny the truth.

Black Blade

(10/10/2003; 23:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110191)

Robert - Gold and Oil

I think that we are really not all that far off on our thinking but rather how we percieve what we have written about Gold and Oil (or as I prefer - "Energy"). That said, as I have a few things to catch up on following my daily workout at the gym and am late in getting to the heart of the matter I think taht I will repost (in two parts) "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" later for some weekend reading when posting is a bit light. Though it was written a few short years ago it still is as true now as it was then though some technological advancements have been made that could help extend the global oil supply of "cheap energy" from nonconventional sources.

As far as Gold it is more rare than ever on a per person basis. Over 5,000 years (actually over 9,000 years if you account for the early Thracians), gold has always been considered of such value to be used as money for goods and services and even today is prized by the majority of the earth's population. Even well heeled high net worth individuals are buyers and not just for jewelry but for investment. But enough of that for now - as I have some work that requires my more immediate attention. Who knows, in some ways we may actually be thinking more alike but just have a different perception of what each of us intended to say. That is where the written word is not always as easily interpreted without the visual language of facial and body language as well.

I also have some interesting stories about Gold and value from the Third World and even among the more "advanced societies" as well. Quite enlightening for some.

Cheers for now.

- Black Blade

BTW, Gandy, with Xmas not far off a gift of gold and silver (bullion or coin) may be a consideration we might want to consider as that gift giving season fast approaches. Cheers!

Smeagol

(10/10/2003; 23:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110192)

what a day

If the US can break its promises, then we sees no reason others can't (but perhaps if Iraq had waited, until a group of countries all at once sswitched to Euro? the US can't beat up everyone at once)

Ssuch JUICY possts today! Almost as good as freshly caught fissh!

Ow, our head is not used to all thiss much reading and wondering, so Smeagol is going to ssneak a pint of ale from Master's cellar and walk under Stars. Sneak and think...

--------

Note to Sam: Please order another barrel of 1845. It seems we're running a little low, and we're having guests over next weekend.

F. B.

Paper Avalanche

(10/10/2003; 23:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110193)

@ Robert

You stated:

"We do not need gold in order to live well."

Where I believe that you fail yourself and others who may be consumed in the eternal pursuit of material things and/or the requisite acquiesence to those who would see fit to narrate your life from cradle to grave, I give you the following from one of our founding fathers:

"If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand
that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

Dear Robert, I believe that you are able to dissuade those who come to this forum seeking wealth and fortune, however, those who are students of history recognize the value of gold in establishing a universally recognized common denominator among men such that no man may make a claim of superiority over others based upon paper promises of indebtedness.

We (the US) do not need gold to live well as long as we are the reserve currency of the world. Such an implied benefit (or exhorbitant privilege) is our birthrite as the benefactors of the Bretton Woods accords until something changes to affect our position in the world.

Something is now happening to do just that.

Understand the difference between living well and living free. I do not believe that you do.

Take care.

PA

melda laure

(10/10/2003; 23:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110194)

Food for thought, part 1.5

the curse of midas.Sir Black blade, so truly do you speak; indeed the cost of any other thing is measured not in dollars, but in capital, energy, materials, effort and time. Years ago, when Spain brought home the gathered plunder of the west, the people of europe discovered this as the new minted gold fell in purchasing power over the years. But the most obvious effect was that Spain could purchase more of the limited produce of europe be that in goods, workers or (as it turned out) soldiers for her wars against islam.

What did not change was the limited productivity of europe. At least not at first. For along with the stolen money came a strange gift. Perhaps if the hobbits would spare a moment to consider the contents of both plate and bottle and consider the source of these foods, corn and beans and squash, chiles, tomatoes, potatoes, cassava, pineapple, (ok so there's one you haven't seen much) and these are but a sample of the more well known items. It must be remembered that in 1492 there was only human power and animal power. The economic impact of steam was nil. The economic impact of coal was minor, a mere substitute for wood to burn, not a substitute for men to work. (Ok, so I hear a couple of dwarves reminding me that they built a toy steam driven pump for Lord Gudea of Lagash so he could dispense beer from the high seat, lets stick to the present age ok?). Wind, limited to a few countries. Water wheels, limited to places where water fell fast enough.

Consider for a moment just the potato, and how it provided more food for the northern countries, so that more people could devote time to manufactured goods, and the development of new crafts (now called technology) By itself the gold of the new world could only bid on goods from africa and the east. But the new foods became a new source of WEALTH. A completely scalable and renewable source of ENGERGY. Where before, europe clothed itself in wool, strictly limited by the available land for sheep, now cotton and other fibers allowed more land for other uses.

The exact role of banks, government and the like in creating socialism in later years is something I find interesting. Yet when Sir GAB paused to speak of "financial energy" something in my mind seemed to flinch and demand audience, for not gold alone, nor finance, nor the laws protecting capital altogether sufficed to enable the experiments in socialism. As I seem to recall, the greeks despised democracy (at least the famous intellectual ones we seem to hear about most often). Europe of the middle ages took its government from the ancient near east. From them they did learn reverence for the valar, and from thence also did they fall from wisdom of reverence into the madness of worship, the divine rights of kings and tyranny. Only in the time of legend or in old wives tales do we hear of the days long before when the people still lived as free men (and I do mean men, since it seems that dwarves hobbits and elves seem free of it, even if we have our serious blood feuds on occasion,) Long ago when men still could hold reverence for the valar without worshiping also their kings.

For you see, there was another prize that europe greatly desired. Yet its secrets they could not find, the divine formula they could not discover, and finding but scraps and threads they could not assemble the whole cloth. Instead they created socialism and all her bastard children, and finally her monstrous child communism. And not willing to admit ignorance, nor even, they brought these back and would teach them to the inhabitants of the new world as though men could teach dwarves smithcraft.

Druid "All history is full of war"

Indeed, and who is it we are fighting. The left over shadows of morgoth? Or is it the effects of overweening greed? It is one thing to be so greedy for wealth that we diligently work to accquire it. It is quite another if we merely would steal it from others.

Druid "Today, as you read this more gold is traded and purchased than at any time in the history of the world."

It is true. Also true is that there is more WEALTH than at any other time in history. Take my word for it. Gold is a little thing for he that has no bread. With gold, it is true that he that has no bread may buy some - if there is any to be had; and if not, then he that hath much bread may buy ALL the gold that would rather eat than await the future harvest that may not come. Indeed, is gold money? Many here have said it is wealth, and that it CAN be money. Frank Shostak has a piece where he suggests that far back in the past gold came to be used as money. I wonder what he would make of the Inca? Or of several other similar nations. Of course Frank has not read the inca writings of the old kingdom, before books were abandoned. Though this tale I must pass for another time.

And for all its many faults, the US is still the leading example of freedom, though I admit, no longer an example of peace. But of that there are many excellent and worthy examples in this hemisphere. And while Engles and Marx may have utterly failed to learn the secret of liberty from the peoples of the new world, it is not yet too late for the rest of us to rediscover the understanding that guided jefferson and franklin and many others, an understanding that came of direct experience and observation of what were some of the oldest "democracies" then in existence. It is only 511 years, a short time for men to unlearn the errors of that doomed rome.

Sir Albino Bat, I found your post informative. Indeed it still raises questions I do not know how to answer.

And that will have to do for the present. But perhaps I can recommend a book, Jack Wetherfords' "Indian Givers". I guarantee it does discuss gold, and 15th century mining techniques, and of course food, else the hobbits couldn't stay awake to the end of the tale. It even has tales of socialism for those who like scary stories.

melda laure

(10/11/2003; 00:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110195)

We forbade them weapons so they fashioned their own

Star Trek Vor was that a different episode, what is this stuff you're serving smeagol, my head is spinning! Aaaghth this is the peyote beer! It's supposed to be in the medicine cabinet... not the cellar!

"Dear Robert, I believe that you are able to dissuade those who come to this forum seeking wealth and fortune, however, those who are students of history recognize the value of gold in establishing a universally recognized common denominator among men such that no man may make a claim of superiority over others based upon paper promises of indebtedness."

If we can not live honorably with gold it is unlikely we will live more honorably without it. I have heard the same is true of weapons. In either case, history has shown both to be true (for specific cases of history). Today we blame fiat for our poverty. Tommorrow I shall not be surprised if we (or someone else) will blame gold.

Gold raises the price of stupidity, fiat lowers it. Weapons raise the cost of war. And though lawyers aren't free, there seems to be more and more of them. Those that aren't sick dont need a doctor. But for those who would end disease, they could try something a bit more intelligent than to kill all the doctors.

Aristotle

(10/11/2003; 00:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110196)

Robert = Andy Smith

'nuff said.

Gold. Get you some. 'Cause the *Smiths* (bullion bankers) of the world are PANICKING. --- Ari

Paper Avalanche

(10/11/2003; 00:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110197)

Naysayer / Newbie Alert Number

I agree with Ari.

Robert typifies the anticipated anti-gold propoganda machine that one would expect during critical moments in the history between paper and physical gold.

If you are a newbie to the forum and confused by this apparent infighting on the forum, I would invite you to spend your time on the gold trail and the hall of fame posts rather than try to figure out who on the forum is an old timer and who is a (Robert) plant seeking to delay the inevitable.

Take care all.

PA

Aristotle

(10/11/2003; 01:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110198)

Etc...

The worst waste of raw intelligence is in the (blindish) servitude of a vested interest while in thrall to an inferior existence. (That's a BIG *BIG* PICTURE Thing, fella.)

'Tis better that the chicken came before the egg, eh Andy? Meaning,,,,,, 'twould be better that you established your ideology before *before* BEFORE selling your soul merely to save your business-related bacon (paycheck).

So says the tiniest champion of the human condition. (i.e., If you can't pull the wool over MY eyes, you've failed already.)

Gold. Made easier for us by your shameful bullion banking servitude. --- Aristotle

melda laure

(10/11/2003; 01:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110199)

whoops!

better edit out #110195For some its sacred cows, for others scripture or their books, and others its sacred cacti... I shouldve kept my mouth shut instead of saying stupid things

Waverider

(10/11/2003; 01:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110200)

Japan: The rapid run on dollar assets

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EJ10Dh01.html"With the Nikkei stock average currently flirting with 11,000, up about 45 percent from its post-bubble 13-year low of 7,607.88 in April, it is starting to appear that a run on US dollar assets could well be causing the rise in Japanese stock markets. The flight of global investors from the dollar has serious implications, not only for the health of markets such as Japan's, but because of the peril to the US economy and thus the global economy as well, for which the United States has acted as economic engine and importer of last the resort. The US must take in $55 billion per day in investment in government paper and securities to fund the enormous deficits in its fiscal budget and its current account, the total balance of goods and services it trades with other countries. The current account deficit is expected to hit more than $540 billion in 2003, with the fiscal deficit trending towards $600 billion when off-budget liabilities are factored in.

Given the American deficits, other economists are also looking at the dollar as overvalued. As the American economy's weakness comes into focus, the dollar has to fall to reflect its real fundamentals."

silvercollector

(10/11/2003; 04:27:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110201)

Robert

From yours:

"When using the phrase "gold is useless" I was only refering to the fact that almost all the gold ever mined is still around. This is a widely quoted fact and I am sure that we can both agree on that point."

Let's analyse this.

"...almost all the gold ever mined is still around." Yes we can agree on that.

The fact that "almost all the gold ever mined is still around" makes gold useless? No we can't agree on that. The fact that "almost all the gold ever mined is still around" makes it useful, very useful or it wouldn't be around, yes?

If you are stuck on that consider the same statement perverted slighty, "..all the fiat ever produced is NOT around.." Seems fiat has lost it's use if it is gone, yes?

Simple concept man, you're down 2 touchdowns and it's the 4th quarter, GET IN THE GAME!

sc

silvercollector

(10/11/2003; 04:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110202)

Ari, PA

We have a spy?! a plant?! a troll?!

Must come up with something witty....a carnival barker!! No that's one's used.

A manipulation monster....a M&M!

RED ALERT!

We have a M&M aboard.

DummyANI

(10/11/2003; 05:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110203)

@Black Blade (10/10/03; 23:19:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110191)

If an oil is produced from a water, what will happen ?For a western people, an oil is digging from the earth. So USA conquered on Iraq.

But God present us a simple fact that an oil is produced from a water, and if a genius invents a method by which the oil can be produced from the water, we can live in a more comfortable world.

Do you know a soybean can produce an oil-seed ?

LeSin

(10/11/2003; 05:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110204)

Gold Honest Wealth Asset -- Some Truth for Robert

Robert said:

"Chances are that Saddam would still be in power in Iraq if he would not have made the stupid mistake of challenging the US by announcing that he does not want to accept US Dollars as payment for his oil. As a nation, thanks to the clever policies of our government during the past 60 years, we enjoy a unique position in the world where we can print paper and indeed have the right to pay with that paper for foreign imports. Thanks to ingenious policies of the IMF and the world bank, many nations do not have any choice but must export to the US in order to earn our paper. You can object against that on moral grounds, however, from a purely legal point of view this is indeed our right in the sense that it is legal and that no other nation has this privilege. Our government has been working hard for many decades in order to achieve that goal and to create that privilege for us. You may not like that, but this is not a reason to deny the truth."

Lesin:

The above statements reflect such an ugly arrogance that renders any attempt to comment with calm reason difficult. Tyranny, oppression, dictates of fascists, manipulation of economies & countries and stand over tactics by ones military might and nuclear arsenal; that enforce and force the US$ use are NOT legal actions.

One might argue that Iraq's leaders were denied their freedom of choice, and civil rights to choose a currency that best suited their "sovereign" nation. What of international law? Pre-emptive strikes and attacks created an illegal war, notwithstanding the morality issues as well. Death of innocent men, women and children - you call "clever government policy"?

"Ingenious-policies" of the IMF and US Gov.? The moral decay has truly established itself deep into your thought process. It has denied you of your ability to reason and has impaired your duty to fairness and the pursuits of equality and justice for all. Might is right, the winner takes all, power of the rich, are you suggesting that those things make it right to do what ever it takes to maintain the USA hegemony? Even pre-emptive strikes against sovereign nations? Trade embargos that starve children and deny medical treatments and needed pharmaceuticals? It is estimated that trade embargoes over the past 10 -12 years against Iraq promoted the death of hundreds of thousand innocent children.

What you call the "truth" is exposed by your own words as something else. What you call your governments hard work to create privilege is non other than common fraud, price manipulations, corruption to the top of your governments, deceit, lies and murder of the innocent, you may understand murder of the innocent as collateral damage. Fancy phrases and twisted terminology does not stop the mothers tears nor does it replace the loss of a city or country.

All of the your justifications, admissions, rants and cries of the legality of it all in your present system are but whimpering cries of a people and its' government lost. Direction and purpose have been confused by wanton greed and corruption. Your system and hegemony is drowning in debt and corruption.

It is of no little surprise that Physical GOLD scares your ilk! Gold and other precious metals, but especially Gold remain the Worlds only proven and tested by time, asset. The only store of wealth that endures and withstands your ilk.

I am so very sorry to take up space of this fine forum, but your matter of fact style of arrogance, promoting your hegemony and its' actions as 'legal' was just to much to swallow.

Cheers "S"

Gold Standard

(10/11/2003; 05:40:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110205)

The "new" $20 USD bill

http://www.perthweb.net.au/aboutperth/currency.shtmlI would like the Oaken Table's input on this, even though it is (slightly) off topic. I have seen a considerable amount of commentary on the "new" coloured $20 bill soon to be introduced to the United States.

To my foreign eyes, the "new" bill looks almost identical to the "old" bill! I have always been frustrated by US currency, being the same colour and size, and the only point of differentiation being the numbers on the corner!

I cannot believe the media frenzy being swept up by the introduction of the "new" bill. In Australia, we have had completely different coloured notes since 1966, and these were replaced by plastic compound notes with transparent "windows" some 20 years ago, as an aid to minimise counterfeiting. See above URL for samples.

Why all the fuss?

Cheers!

LeSin

(10/11/2003; 06:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110206)

Gold Get You Some - Still Very Cheap For the Weight of It

Physical GOLD IS:

Portable & Transportable

One can ship it like any other freight or cargo by trains, planes & automobiles.

One can wear it, all sorts of jewellery from chains, rings and golden thingies.

One can store it in blocks, wafers, bars, coins and tokens.

Try some on your chocolate cake as icing flakes - Makes you feel good just looking at it.

Fire & heat will only improve it and refine it.

Water will not dissolve it.

Ice will not crack it.

Kings and paupers will accept it as payment and exchange it.
Oil (black gold) the life blood of modern industry - is traded for it.

Wise men and women value it still, as an ultimate wealth asset.

Wise men and women acquire it because they understand and know that all fiat currencies eventually fail into
a downward spiral of devaluation - due to over exposure.

Cheers "S" Good night and good weekend from the wonderful land of OZ DownUnder.

Aristotle

(10/11/2003; 09:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110207)

Combatting orc mischief and cave-trollery

Sir silvercollector, you said it, brother. I can't think of much that could be worse for the common good than having a bunch of poison pills parading around as M&Ms in the candy dish.

In the interest of separating the bad from the good, let me point out that I respect bankers. I really do. As far as I might dare cast businessmen of all sorts into various stereotypes, bankers are definitely among the finest folk I've found.

HOWEVER..... I hasten to add that *bullion* bankers are specifically EXCLUDED from that class. They're the lowest of the low. They give banking a bad name. They have no integrity. None!

Here's what I mean. You'll almost never hear a *regular* banker beating a drum for media attention and saying that their money is akin to garbage and best left untouched by human hands. But that's *exactly* the sort of two-faced behavior we see from those self-serving bullion bankers like A.Smith, always on guard against a positive investor sentiment for Gold which would effectively translate into a run, putting them out of business.

Only from the mouths of fools and bullion bankers will you hear the words "Gold is useless." It's egregious coming from the bullion bankers, because they know they *KNOW* they are lying through their teeth (while fools, on the other hand, are simply unaccountable as such.)

Sheeeesh. What a world.

Gold. Get you some, and smile, knowing that you're putting the screws to a bullion banker. --- Aristotle

contrarian

(10/11/2003; 10:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110208)

leSin's response to Robert

Thank you LeSin for your response to that post, which, with what I now know about the global picture, I found disturbing. Or let me be more specific...whether or not Robert agrees with the opinion he put forth, I find that manner of thinking deplorable.

Pride goeth before a fall, and it appears the end game of all this will ultimately be the total destruction of the paper currency the dollar.

The powers that be are too stupid to see the larger picture, and are merely prolonging the agony; consequently the end picture will be far more catastrophic than it needs to be. But what else can you expect from self-serving politicians. The Founding Fathers would be rolling in their hallowed graves if they saw what was going on. And how what they had so carefully put together was being roundly destroyed by idiots.

Belgian

(10/11/2003; 10:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110209)

Stability and Growth.....

Today, there are some analogies with what happened in the period 1920-1930 with Sir Montagu Norman as the Governor of the Bank of England. We will soon find out if the Duisenberg > Trichet - policies, have similarities with '20-'30 as the period of "Brittania Rules the Waves" ?

Sir Norman was the then "currency dictator of Europe", who
wanted Churchill to become the "Golden" chancellor.

One particular thing (out of many other similarities) struck me, when looking into the turbulent Gold-history of that period : THE ONLY WAY TO STOP THE GOLD FLOW FROM LONDON TO NEW YORK, NORMAN REASONED, WAS TO GET THE UNITED STATES TO LAUNCH A POLICY OF EASY MONEY, LOW INTEREST RATES, REFLATION, AND A WEAK DOLLAR...in short, a policy of price-inflation !!!

Today, Euroland (in particular Germany) wants high/higher oilprices ! (Shroder in Saudi Arabia and Russia)(SA and Russia co-operation). This is not as paradoxal as one might think.

High/higher oilprices generate "elegant" tax-income as to overcome the present growing deficits (3% > 4%) in Euroland.
Oilproducers do like this attitude and are handed another argument for having oil (and gas) sold for euro, be it partial at the beginning. More "stable" euro for Russian/Arabian energy means more growth in euro-trade between those resource rich regions and Euroland.

IMO, a handy and elegant solution to support-expand (export) the Stability and Growth-concept of the EMU.

A strong Chinese delegation was visiting Brussels...
Nobel Price for peace went to IRAN...
Turkish troops (10,000) are NOT yet in Iraq...

Note that Euroland IRs remain higher than the US' IRs. When Brittania ruled the waves, Norman's goal was British financial supremacy. Montagu Norman's golden pound would have been unthinkable without the puppet role of Bnjamin Strong of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Is this simalar for the ECB (BIS) and its growing alliances ?

All thoughts appreciated.

@ Gold Standard : The new $20 bill in itself is not worth any fuss...But is this an introduction of a two tier dollar-system with exchange controls ?
If the euro can keep on growing succesfully, the dollar reserve is going to make some strong moves...

The stockmarket crash of 1929 and US gold-confiscation that followed, were also strong moves !
Those currency wars never ended and might have entered into a new decisive phase, at present.

Dollar Bill

(10/11/2003; 10:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110210)

*>*............+

In Q&A following his speech (and in the midst of rampant speculation) in response to a question about possible over-valuation, Dr. Bernanke commented, "Stocks have risen significantly since March and I think that increase in stocks reflects justifiable optimism about the future of the economy." The Fed is as determined to inflate Bubbles. From Bernanke's speech: "If all goes as planned, the changes in financial asset prices and returns induced by the actions of monetary policymakers lead to the changes in economic behavior that the policy was trying to achieve."

Hmmm, guess the cat is out of the bag, as we guessed, the Fed is behind the bull market we have been seeing.

Dollar Bill

(10/11/2003; 10:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110211)

">"

Sir Belgian, I was reading that the euro is an easy mark for counterfeiters.

Druid

(10/11/2003; 10:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110212)

ANDREW JACKSON'S FAREWELL ADDRESS

http://www.aircrash.org/burnelli/ajackson.htm"THE MESSAGES AND PAPERS OF THE PRESIDENTS"
(Page 1511 - 1527)
By
James D. Richardson
1910 Edition
Published By
Bureau Of National Literature And Art
FELLOW-CITIZENS, Being about to retire finally from public life, I beg leave to offer you my grateful thanks for the many proofs of kindness and confidence which I have received at your hands. It has been my fortune in the discharge of public duties, civil and military, frequently to have found myself in difficult and trying situations, where prompt decisions and energetic action were necessary, and where the interest of the country required that high responsibilities should be fearlessly encountered; and it is with the deepest emotions of gratitude that I acknowledge the continued and unbroken confidence with which you have sustained me in every trial. My public life has been a long one, and I can not hope that it has at all times been free from errors; but I have the consolation of knowing that if mistakes have been committed they have not seriously injured the country I so anxiously endeavored to serve, and at the moment when I surrender my last public trust I leave this great people prosperous and happy, in the full enjoyment of liberty and peace, and honored and respected by every nation of the world.

If my humble efforts have in any degree contributed to preserve to you these blessings, I have been more than rewarded by the honors you have heaped upon me, and, above all, by the generous confidence with which you have supported me in every peril and with which you have continued to animate and cheer my path to the closing hour of my political life. The time has now come when advanced age and a broken frame warn me to retire from public concerns, but the recollection of the many favors you have bestowed upon me is engraved upon my heart, and I have felt that I could not part from your service without making this public acknowledgment of the gratitude I owe you. And if I use the occasion to offer to you the counsels of age and experience, you will, I trust, receive them with the same indulgent kindness which you have so often extended to me, and will at least see in them an earnest desire to perpetuate in this favored land the blessings of liberty and equal law.

We have now lived almost fifty years under the Constitution framed by the sages and patriots of the Revolution. The conflicts in which the nations of Europe were engaged during a great part of this period, the spirit in which they waged war against each other, and our intimate commercial connections with every part of the civilized world rendered it a time of much difficulty for the Government of the United States. We have had our seasons of peace and of war, with all the evils which precede or follow a state of hostility with powerful nations. We encountered these trials with our Constitution yet in its infancy, and under the disadvantages which a new and untried government must always feel when it is called upon to put forth its whole strength without the lights of experience to guide it or the weight of precedents to justify its measures. But we have passed triumphantly through all these difficulties. Our Constitution is no longer a doubtful experiment, and at the end of nearly half a century we find that it has preserved unimpaired the liberties of the people, secured the rights of property, and that our country has improved and is flourishing beyond any former example in the history of nations.

In our domestic concerns there is everything to encourage us, and if you are true to yourselves nothing can impede your march to the highest point of national prosperity. The States which had so long been retarded in their improvement by the Indian tribes residing in the midst of them are at length relieved from the evil, and this unhappy race - the original dwellers in our land - are now placed in a situation where we may well hope that they will share in the blessings of civilization and be saved from that degradation and destruction to which they were rapidly hastening while they remained in the States; and while the safety and comfort of our own citizens have been greatly promoted by their removal, the philanthropist will rejoice that the remnant of that ill-fated race has been at length placed beyond the reach of injury or oppression, and that the paternal care of the General Government will hereafter watch over them and protect them.

If we turn to our relations with foreign powers, we find our condition equally gratifying. Actuated by the sincere desire to do justice to every nation and to preserve the blessings of peace, our intercourse with them has been conducted on the part of this Government in the spirit of frankness; and I take pleasure in saying that it has generally been met in a corresponding temper. Difficulties of old standings have been surmounted by friendly discussion and the mutual desire to be just, and the claims of our citizens, which have long been withheld, have at length been acknowledged and adjusted and satisfactory arrangements made for their final payment; and with a limited, and I trust a temporary, exception, our relations with every foreign power are now of the most friendly character, our commerce continually expanding, and our flag respected in every quarter of the world.

Druid: Peach colored fiat $20, we are such a "sophisticated" crowd. Enjoy.

Dollar Bill

(10/11/2003; 10:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110213)

*>*.............-l-

Sir LeSin, I was relieved to find out more about the oil for food program run by the UN in Iraq.
Turns out it was not the US that caused any shortages of medical supplies of water plant replacement parts.
France, Germany and Russia and Kofi Anan were in charge of the program and had every opportunity to make it better.
Since they wanted Saddam to use the euro, and he demanded
help from them to get the UN off his back, they joined him in his effort to get the US to give up sanctions by
a false media push to blame the US for Saddams own cruelty to his people.
By the way, there is a video of saddam unleashing 2 dogs to eat alive a general that displeased him.

[offensive material deleted]

Not to say that all your points were in error or anything.
Hope I dont imply that.

Max Rabbitz

(10/11/2003; 10:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110214)

Robert & LeSin

Robert......"Our government has been working hard for many decades in order to achieve that goal and to create that priviledge for us. You may not like that, but this is not a reason to deny the truth."

Yes, of course they and their banker bosses have been working very hard at this.....but not for "us". We're just going to lose our jobs. That "priviledge" reminds me of the privilege Al Capone had in Chicago. The protection he offered could be questioned on moral grounds although no state court would convict. When that day of Reckoning comes and the dollar has been all used up our Financial Masters will have moved into another currency and left us holding the bag. They'll need some gold, but just enough to start the next scam.......if they can escape the enraged mobs.

LeSin.......well said but I must object to the part about Iraqi children deaths. The Iraqi dictator could have bought all the food and medicine he wanted but chose to spend on palaces and weapons. There is enough evil in the world to go around without having to pile it all in one place.

Belgian

(10/11/2003; 10:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110215)

@ Ari....

Yep Ari, right you are ! Never mind that the word "bullion-banker" is a nice cover for something much, MUCH uglier and Bigger than most are suspecting.
Knowingly or unknowingly, you went right to the hart of the matter, imvvvvho, of course.
BTW, did you hear me yelling, HAHAAAAAA !? Of course you did, because you are thingking and LIVING out of the classical "box", aren't you, Sir ?!

Most of what is happening now is just the repetition of what happened before...in French, L'histoire se r�p�te.

glennh10

(10/11/2003; 11:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110216)

Dollar "Rights"

GAB, thanks for the great post (Great Albino Bat (10/10/03; 21:29:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 110184).

A "right" is never imposed. Does a neighborhood bully have a "right" to intimidate? The U.S. dollar is an imposition on the world. I relate it to a drug addiction. The fact that a drug pusher enjoys power over an addict doesn't give him such a "right". Today's world-wide monetary system, with today's dollar at the helm, is a scheme, a fraud, a fake-out, at home and abroad. And like any lie, the success of today's fraudulent dollar is limited. The system as a whole is nothing more than a casino.

As far as laws are concerned, many are passed and enforced in response to "emergencies"; following war, agreements are often made between the victors and the defeated. That doesn't mean such laws or agreements are just. Gold as money provides a just means of exchange, a level playing field. TPTB however, prefer a system where they enjoy structural advantages. Today's dollar provides them that. Today's ubiquitous dollar system is imposed. It is not our "right".

The most significant, refreshing statement I recently found in the news was about the Russian official who stated that a dollar or Euro sale of Russian oil was not a matter of the Russian gov't, but rather a decision to be made between buyer and seller. How refreshing! Then also, the Russians reiterated their ability to defend themselves militarily. These two facts, from my reading, are not unrelated. Putin is stating that, unlike the case with Iraq, the U.S. cannot expect to militarily impose a dollar-for-oil scheme on Russian oil. Should get interesting.

Belgian

(10/11/2003; 11:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110217)

@ Dollar Bill

Yes, there were (will always remain) problems with counterfeit euronotes in circulation. But...of course, according to the spin doctors, the euro is...must be, the *easiest* currency to be counterfeited ! Yep, just Xerox it and off you go.
Currency counterfeiters, recently stopped printing false dollar notes and focus entirely on the euronotes now...because this job is 18% more profitable than the previous dollar job, these days ! Joke D.B. Funny or not, just give us a friendly smile .

Putin's most recent statement : Russia does NOT want higher oilprices and will take action against OPEC's price-policies !!! What a great *show* this oil for euro thing !
Let us talk "Chechnya" for a while...and get Iraq from those screens up until nov.'04.

Ongoing battles, dear forumers...perpetual, currency-oil-Gold wars ! This, whilst many innocent, totally innocent folks are always/still paying the highiest price possible,...their own live and that of their beloved ones. FOR NOTHING IN RETURN. Let us NEVER forget this, whilst we debate on these sad wars. Thanks.

Paper Avalanche

(10/11/2003; 12:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110218)

As Monty Burns would say...... Ehhhkkkssselent

Gold: new focus of investment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More domestic investors are interested in tapping into the gold market, with more than 20 percent of stock investors willing to transfer part of their funds to the gold market, according to a questionnaire of investors in ten Chinese cities, sina.com.cn reported yesterday.

Gold has boasted a high profile in China, with over 70 percent of respondents favoring gold, according to the questionnaire.

More than 20 percent of investors are ready to transfer part of their funds to the gold market, and 7.5 million stock investors will invest in gold in the near future, said a questionnaire analyst.

If each stock investor puts 14,000 to 26,000 yuan (US$1,686 - US$3,132) into the gold market, a total of 100-190 billion yuan is expected to be injected into the gold market, the analyst said.

Housing properties, cars and education are the top three options that people are willing to spend their extra money on, followed by investing in stocks, collection and bullion, the questionnaire indicated.

Wendy Zhang/ Shanghai Daily news

Tick tock Robert, tick tock.

PA

Great Albino Bat

(10/11/2003; 12:26:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110219)

Robert, sonny boy,....

You are way out of your depth here.

This Forum is a special place; respectful of the opinions of others, and where honest differences are cordially accepted.

Here, you are reading a great deal of economic Truth, not available in any but perhaps one or two private colleges in the U.S.A. (if they still exist) and nowhere else in the world, to my knowledge.

This is not the place for you. You want a place where all are parroting to one another, the same falsities that one hears and reads in Academia, in Publishing, in Cinema, in TV media.

You will be more comfortable there. And so will we, when you realize it.

Sincerely

The GAB

Belgian

(10/11/2003; 12:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110220)

@glennh10

It becomes more obvious for the general public (Russians included) that Putin will have to excercise all his maneuvering skills and diplomacy as to remain in place.
It is not the first time in history that Russia (Russia's choices) will become very decisive on the "energy" and "currency" outcome...war and peace.
All statements have "nothing" to do with any ideology, good or bad. These are nothing else but maneuvers on the different battle fields. Politics is about personal, private interests and very, VERY little about general well-being !!! We simple do forget this vital given, too often in our reflexions.

Happy people who wish to remain happy, stay out of politics and are easier to convince (educate) to go for honest GOLD. Unfortunately a lot of good folks lack the needed insight to come to these conclusions, IN TIME !

When I'm talking about Russia or Putin, please note that I do always feel terribly embarresed (ashamed) with the knowledge that the Chechnya cruel atrocity is still going on ! An infernal dehumanising drama for/about oil ! This is another generally ignored/unnoticed aspect of the WOT ...war about oil ! And imo, there is still much more suffering going to come up as the different currency/energy/economic struggles continue to detoriate.

N. Korea, China, India/Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Africa, Israel/Palestine, etc...and even the murder of many individuals, fathers (Kelly), mothers (A.Lindh) in so called democratic states.

This almost sounds like a Brussels, pr� Christmas speech...

(10/11/2003; 14:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110221)

Euro/Yen topping?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XEU:$XJY,uu[h,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][i]⪯f=G.

Liberty Head

(10/11/2003; 14:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110222)

Thanks To Robert

Your postings have moved many of our most esteemed forum members to respond. The response you evoked was quite awesome to behold.
Here is a place where folks respond much like a minuteman militia, without all the bloodshed.
Here is a place where honesty, integrity, wisdom, freedom and responsibility trump hype, romance, illusion and ignorance.
The values expressed and implied here daily are the same values practiced by the founders of this nation.
Our shared interest in gold is rooted in these same values.
For these reasons, I choose to visit this forum daily.

Best Wishes

CoBra(too)

(10/11/2003; 15:58:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110223)

Some Thoughts from the "Privateer"

"Today, we live in a world of financial fraud. The most tragic part of this situation is that everyone, including countless millions of honest men and women who offer an honest effort in return for their reward, are at the mercy of those fraudsters who produce the means of payment out of thin air and then force their fellows to "accept" it in return for their honest effort. The present situation has moved beyond mere economic imbalances. It has entered the realm of the BIG con.

Right now, the biggest and most obvious con is the $US Gold "price". The worse the actual economic situation has become this year, the more Gold has been "compressed". Since Gold reached its 2003 highs just over two weeks ago, this "compression" has reached the danger level - dangerous for those doing the "compressing", that is. Springs always snap back. That is the certain future for the $US Gold "price". The tighter the spring is coiled and the longer it stays compressed, the more powerful the snap back will be".

Not much to add, though feelin' a bit worried about my American friends in particular as well as feelin' real worried in general.

Still, the lingering thought coming to mind - how, in hell, could we have let this monster escalate to today's non-recurrable dimensions? ...And not even touching of the bigger fraud of the derivative pyramiding scheme ...

O(r)h well, have a great weekend all and all Canadian friends a great turkey dinner on your Thanksgiving Monday -
...cb2

Aristotle

(10/11/2003; 16:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110224)

Thank you, Belgian.

Probably more than anything I'm gladdened to see we've successfully boosted you over your fatigue!

Gold. Solid. --- Ari

goldenpeace

(10/11/2003; 16:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110225)

Haiku

is the sun useless to man?
golden foundation, as well?
Gold: the only real savings.

Peace,
Blessings to the Honorable Forum
Bowing
goldenpeace

Great Albino Bat

(10/11/2003; 17:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110226)

Some thoughts on the new $20 US bill

The appearance of this new bill has provoked quite a bit of discussion; there may or may not be sinister ulterior motives involved. Time will reveal them, if they do exist, in due course.

At the very least, what the new bill illustrates is that those who determine these things, whoever they may be, like to tinker with accepted things. This demonstrates an anti-conservative attitude. Conservatives like to see permanence and distrust change, especially change for its own sake.

In all other countries, in the past 100 years or so, changes in the aspect of bills have ALWAYS accompanied devaluations and financial chaos.

Changes in the aspect of what we use for money, the dollar bills, are a mark of disrespect or devaluation of the Past.
The new bills show us, how little regard there is for the Past.

This fits in well with the present day actions of the monetary authorities - namely the FED. All logic and rationality has been abandoned. Just listen to the likes of Bernanke and McTeer. These are individuals who have no compass to guide them, no principles on which to base their actions. "Try this - maybe it will work" That's Pragmatism, the gift of William James towards the dissolution of the USA. "There are no principles, no true and no false; all is relative: if "it works", then it is "true"."

Intellectual bankruptcy we may call it, and it always precedes material and financial bankruptcy.

The ship we are on has no pilot, no compass, no planned course and no desired port. Recipe for foundering!

The ship of State is going to come up on the rocks, count on it. New bills=rearranging the deck chairs, if nothing else.

Enjoy the privilege of life, this weekend.

The GAB

specie-man

(10/11/2003; 17:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110227)

oil from water

Hydro-carbons (oil), as the name implies, contain carbon. Petroleum is an "organic" (carbon-containing) compound - molecules generally made of carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen.

Pure water contains no carbon. To turn water into oil, it would take the addition of carbon, along with more energy input than the total energy output of the resulting oil. In other words - a loosing proposition in energey "economics".

Vegetable oils, however, have some potential. They essentially use enrgey from the sun to create oil. But the energy in that oil is no where near the energy content of traditional crude oil.

Old Yeller

(10/11/2003; 17:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110228)

Robert,the right to pay

What you have described is known in certain circles as a protection racket.

If you are running a protection racket,one mustn't get too greedy or over-extended.Or,as a result of these errors of oversight,engage in blatant piracy to extend your grasp on economic hegemony( also known in certain circles as counterfeiting.

DummyANI

(10/11/2003; 17:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110229)

@specie-man (10/11/03; 17:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 110227)

Plant uses a solar energy in order to convert water into
starch, not an oil.
Unknown process makes an oil from a starch.
I think it is possible for a genius to convert directly water into oil( heating-oil or gasoline) with a very low energy.

specie-man

(10/11/2003; 17:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110230)

Gold confiscation

Yes, sadly, Canada turned many citizens into "crimminals" at the stroke of a pen. But that is Canada. I was speaking of the USA in my earlier post. Legislatiors here would be a lot less likely to enact legislation if they thought people would vehemently protest it. Does anyone ever protest anything in Canada ? And the US government would be much *more* likely to pass legislation if they thought no one would care. It should be made loud and clear that we oppose any gold/asset confiscation.

Like I said, the NRA has been successful in their efforts so far. We could, if necessary, be successful in ours. And I don't mean that we as individuals should stand up and shout "No Confiscation !". I agree that it is better for individual gold holders to keep a low profile. But an organization, like the NRA, could do it for us. Actually, I think there is already an organization that would help in the event any asset seizure was being planned. That organization is the Industry Council for Tangible Assets (ICTA) or something like that. They have, in the past, worked to remove sales taxes on bullion and coins.

Realistically, though, all this "confiscation" talk is being blown way out of proportion. Gold wasn't seized in 1980 and it won't be now. The government is much more likely to seize other assets (oil, farmland, etc.) than gold, and even chances of that happening extremely remote.

In 1933, the govenment needed a quantity of gold as "backing" to improve the faith in the rapidly-increasing quantities of new "Federal Reserve Notes" being issued at the time. It really didn't matter if they actually had the gold. What really mattered was that people BELIEVED that they had the gold backing. So the government put on a "show" to make people believe that the paper currency was as good as gold. As far as the government was concerned, the "show" was just as important as the actual gold.

So, in 1933, the situation was that the government withdrew the prevailing money (gold) from circulation and replaced it with fiat.

WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO THIS TIME, RECALL ALL THE FIAT AND REPLACE IT WITH "CREDIT" CARDS !? Ha-Ha ! Oh, wait, that IS what they are doing !

My apologies to our Canadian neighbors - no offense intended.

Remarx

(10/11/2003; 18:24:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110232)

@Robert: Good Point!

Your point re oil as more truly precious than gold was well-taken (by me at least)-- a welcome sign of healthy, critical thinking.

As BlackBlade mentioned, gold is still valued around the world. Like you, I can't figure out why, but I still see it as the only safe store for wealth to help protect my family on the other side of Hubbert's peak.

Paper Avalanche

(10/11/2003; 18:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110233)

@ Robert.......

You last name wouldn't happen to be Rubin would it.

How's life after the Treasury Department?

PA

R Powell

(10/11/2003; 19:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110234)

Robert, Aristotle and Paper Avalanche

The dollar's "right" of acceptance I've just finished reading some responses to Robert's thoughts on the "right" of the dollar's acceptance in the world. I thought that the following, said with tongue in cheek, might be pertainent...

"Don't worry about OPEC collecting too many dollars. The government with the Fed.'s help have been, are now, and will continue to print enough dollars to safely insure that the buying power or purchasing value of those dollars goes way down. If the value doesn't drop fast enough, we can speed up the printing by creating digital credits. We're getting oil for immediate use while paying for it with paper that will lose value over time. Neat trick, no?

I believe the nation's trade deficit is now over 500 billion dollars per year. Again, no problem, we import the world's goods and commodities and export paper dollars. Whenever some country feels they have too many warehouses full of American dollars, they simply return them for longer term treasury debt. They're still trading our exported dollars back to us for the current LOW interest paying notes. No problem. John Law was right after all.

Remember the words of Spock...

"Live large and consume!" for we'll not pay the piper until tomorrow with cheaper money." (END QUOTE)

I believe it is true that the dollar is accepted as payment throughout the world. It has been and is now. Whether this privilege is a "right" as one might think of "rights" supposedly insured by the "Bill of Rights" moves the discussion into one of ethics and perhaps law. That the buck pays the bills is fact.

Is it not also true that the dollar is easily convertible into other currencies? Can the dollar also be used to buy commodities, land, services and pretty much anything one might want? Can the dollars be exchanged for gold? Isn't the currency little more than a means of exchange, and the dollar easily exchangeable? If so, then what's the problem? I wouldn't store my wealth in dollars but as payment for work converted into paying my bills, it works fine.

If the world accepts dollars then dollars will trade. The market and Gresham's law will determine how much the dollar is "worth" and whether or not they will be honored as good currency or held as reserves. Ethics and morals have little to do with the pragmatic daily world trade which probably ought to be more equitable but which will not function without money or an acceptable means of exchange.

Basically, what Robert says about the dollar is probably correct. Whether it should be is another question. So now he's branded as an Andy Smith and anti-gold propagandist by Aristotle and Paper Avalanche! Do I hear them saying, "Agree with me or I'll call you names", again?
Grow up!

21mabry

(10/11/2003; 19:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110235)

United Europe

In some historical reading I came across a quote from Napoleon a man whose life makes for interesting reading.The emperor spoke.There shall be no peace in europe until there is one currency,one court of justice,one army,and one ruler.Truly this may be happening in our time.I guess Bonaparte was a few hundred years to early.21

Remarx

(10/11/2003; 19:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110236)

@Robert: My mistake! What Really Makes this Nation Great

Guess I hadn't read back far enough in your postings. While I have to admit there is certainly some truth to your statements about the true value of gold, I have to concur with others here that your attitude with respect to "what makes this nation great" is reprehensible.

I am still unjaded enough to believe that integrity, fair play and especially goodwill were the real pillars on which at least part of US society was based. I would hope that none of us would want to benefit from such a scheme --rightly called counterfeiting by someone else here.

Paper Avalanche

(10/11/2003; 19:49:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110237)

Selling more paper to fund worthless paper promises

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=68&u=/nyt/20031011/ts_nyt/tocoverpensionpromisesgovernmentsturntobonds≺inter=1This is the stuff paper avalanches are made of.

If I were nearing retirment and relying on a pension, I would be terrified.

Take care all.

PA

BTW, Rich - I invite Robert (Rubin? Plant?) to refute or contest that which I have ascribed to him. If one is not willing to be called names, myself included, then maybe the "animating contest of freedom" is too stressful or uncomfortable for many to engage the forum. I respect Robert for his attempt to make his argument - but I sincerely believe that he is dead a$$ wrong.

Gold Standard

(10/11/2003; 20:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110239)

The "Robert" issue.....

Given the flurry of postings of a troll in the ranks, I have taken the time to review Robert's postings and the replies.

My personal opinion is that on one view of things, Robert's well-articulated query as to the "value" of gold has, per se, reasonable merit. As a goldbug, might I add, it is a simplistic view, that opines that if gold is not "used", then it is by that virtue alone "useLESS".

An intellectual argument that does have a certain attraction.

However, the other view, and that held by the vast majority of the enthusiasts on this forum, is that gold is simply too valuable to be consumed, and hence it is stored as true wealth.

I would have expected some of the long-term posters here to have engaged in rational debate, without resort to the murky depths of name-calling and other personal attacks, which to my mind does not enhance the prestige of this forum one iota.

Cheers!

Waverider

(10/11/2003; 20:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110240)

Robert - for your eyes only...

R Powell

(10/11/2003; 20:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110241)

Paper Avalanche

Your words....

"BTW, Rich - I invite Robert (Rubin? Plant?) to refute or contest that which I have ascribed to him."

Are you asking him to prove that he is not Robert Rubin? And he's supposed to prove that with words here on the forum? Richard Powell happens to be the name on my birth certificate but I can no more prove that here than anyone can prove their real identity OR disprove that they are Robert Rubin. How do you propose he does this?
If you disagree with him, fine but name calling serves no purpose. When I hear kids using foul language (every other word refering to the reproductive process) I often wonder if they know any other adjectives. Name calling reminds me of the same reaction. Sit down, gather your thoughts and engage the man in discussion. If you can't, just side with the others and scream "cartel invader, intruder alert, or perhaps, creature from the dark side!" You are stating that only those who agree with your thoughts should be accorded any civility, those who don't you call names. If I were Robert I'd be long gone by now.
Should the forum hang out a sign that says "Beware all who venture herein, only one point of view allowed. Discussion of opposing opinions has been replaced with identity slander and character assassination." Okay, soon we'll all be preaching the same company line and there will be more questions of where is so and so OR why doesn't Sir XX post anymore. Shall we rewrite the forum code of conduct to post only favorable opinions? Then if you hear an opinion you do not agree with, you'll be able to ask for it to be deleted.

Gold Standard

(10/11/2003; 21:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110242)

The "Robert" issue..... revisited

What a difference an hour or two makes... whilst I was randomly surfing and composing my previous post, there has been an absolute fury of postings!

It seems to me that Robert's reply to initial criticism led to this posting by him:-

SNIP>
"That is precisely what makes this country great. We have the right to pay for valuable resources (like oil and gold) in "worthless" paper money. Third world countries have not reached yet this high level of sophistication on which our society is build. That explains their natural distrust towards all forms of paper money. But in time, they will catch up."
ENDSNIP<

Again, my personal belief is that Robert has advanced an arguable proposition, that has been wrongly attacked. The positioning of the inverted commas totally changes the context of the statement from what could be construed by some as arrogance, to what could be no more than sarcasm:-

SNIP>
"That is precisely what makes this country "great". We have the right to pay for valuable resources (like oil and gold) in worthless paper money. Third world countries have not reached yet this high level of sophistication on which our society is build. That explains their natural distrust towards all forms of paper money. But in time, they will catch up."
ENDSNIP<

Had Robert phrased his comments with this minor change, there would be echoes of "Way to go, Bro!" around the forum.

I am prepared to give Robert the benefit of doubt, and consider his posting as sarcasm, rather than the arrogance that has been attacked at length. In context, it was clearly intended as sarcasm.

Cheers!

Great Albino Bat

(10/11/2003; 21:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110243)

21Mabry: Napoleon and a United Europe...

Napoleon was a man of genius who left his mark upon the world; although defeated at Waterloo, l'Empereur was far, far above and in advance of his enemies. In character,
ability and genius he is comparable to Charlemagne and Alexander the Great.

The Napoleonic Wars were, in fact, the true WWI (not 1914).

Britain fought Napoleon, or mostly got others to fight him, because a United Europe meant that Britain would have to assume her rightful place in the order of things; and of course, the British wouldn't have that - it meant Britain would become of scarcely more importance than the despised Ireland.

The Brits - or those who govern them - have been very clever at playing off one country against another; "Balance of Power", is what they call it.

Now, with Europe (more or less) united, that little bloody game is over - for a time anyway. The Brits are stumped.

I have at hand, a copy of International Currency Review of December 1983 (published in London). Almost twenty years!

A headline: "The U.S. Dollar. Why the Dollar Hasn't Collapsed Yet." Never mind the article, the headline is sobering. There we were, TWENTY YEARS AGO, forecasting the imminent demise of the Dollar!

Giant trade deficits, giant fiscal deficits, humongous debt, etcetera, and still Ole Man River Jes' Keeps Rollin' Along. How long, Oh Lord, How long?

About ten years later, I guess, Int. Curr. Rev. was freaking out about the European Union, and how Germany was achieving the very aims of Adolf Hitler, without firing a shot: a United Europe. I.C.R. was VERY upset. Of course they would be, a United Europe means the end of European manipulation by Britain. Dismal prospect for the Brits!

Well, folks, don't hold your breath waiting for the collapse of the dollar! And so much the better that it has not taken place yet; it has allowed us to accumulate more gold.

Get ahold of the yellow and shiny soon; we may not have another twenty years!

The GAB

Aristotle

(10/11/2003; 21:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110244)

Mr. Gold Standard

Some of the long-term posters DID try to engage in rational debate (see Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.) The outcome was that after I showed Robert the flaw in his logic (he had said Gold wasn't wealth because it couldn't save anyone on the Titanic) he dropped the issue, only to return later saying "Gold is useless." I ask you, where do you go from there????

I'm afraid Rich has completely missed the angle some of us have taken this past day. It isn't "name calling" to liken a person and their argument to that of a well-known figure (A.Smith, R.Rubin, whomever) whose situation is *KNOWN* as one that that has a vested interest in propagating anti-Gold sentiment.

Where I equated Robert with Andy Smith this morning, that's where I shifted my attention and commentary away from Robert's small plight and applied them more significantly to the situation regarding the Andy Smith's (i.e., "bullion bankers" on the IMF/dollar life-support squad) of the world.

The thing that bothers me most about Andy is the waste. He's a bright guy and funnier than hell. But he's wasting his talent and life's opportunity to pursue the greater Good by taking the soft way out as a high-paid lackey for some truly ugly and despicable bullion banking task masters. Roughly speaking, these are the guys that Robert spoke of who foster the "U.S. privilege" through boot-on-neck tactics.

Gold. Get you some. Make lil' Andy and his bosses squirm. --- Aristotle

21mabry

(10/11/2003; 21:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110245)

Napoleon

GAB, Napoleon was indeed before his time.His confederation of the rhine was the a precurrsor to german unification.His intrigues in Italy were a great force in Italian unification.Many have written most of his wars were forced upon him,this I am unsure of,the english definetly would not make peace with him.At tilist when he made peace with czar Alexanders first words to him were I hate the english as much as you.Napoleon replied than we have made peace.Napoleon by all accounts was a staunch believer in paying in gold an refused to debase the currency he feared the past problems with paper fiat in france.He was truly a man of immense intellect.Many do not realise while he fought his campaigns he was also ruling his empire.His opposition usually just had to command their army.21

Robert

(10/11/2003; 21:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110246)

I wish to apologize to everybody for some of the statements

I made on this forum during the past few days. These statements infuriated many of the fine people on this forum to a degree which I could not have imagined when composing my postings. I sincerely apologize. I can not prove that I am neither Andy Smith (never heard that name) nor Robert Rubin (the former secretary of the treasury).
But I wish to assure everybody that I am not member of any organization aiming to hurt the gold community. In fact I
am a loner who does not talk with friends or relatives about the issues discussed on this board. My postings should be viewed as attempts to clarify my own thinking about gold and related issues. I believe that writing is the best form of thinking. Thinking without writing is very often not well developed. I admit that I am often guilty of consciously choosing words in order to either exegarate or to provoke. That was definitely the case when I used the phrase "the right to use printed Dollars for payment". Again, I apologize for this.

In conclusion, let me thank you all for the responses. I read them all! I would be happy if everybody could forgive me so I can actively continue participating in this wonderful forum.

21mabry

(10/11/2003; 21:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110247)

GAB

Waterloo, Quotes from The Duke of Wellington. Message written to Blucher"Come as fast as you can.We will fight to the last hour,to the last round,even to the last man but for Gods sake come." The Dukes comment on the battle."It was a very close run thing indeed."The Rothschilds son stationed in england said the best business he ever did was supplying bullion to the english goverment to pay their army fighting Bonney in spain.21

Paper Avalanche

(10/11/2003; 22:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110248)

Rich... please calm down

To address all the you included in your last post:

RP: "Are you asking him to prove that he is not Robert Rubin?"
PA: Nope. Just thought that if Robert Rubin were to spend time on a gold forum that he would post similar posting. My reference was indirect humor.

RP: "And he's supposed to prove that with words here on the forum?"
PA: That is the only methhod by which we have to communicate on this forum.

RP: "Richard Powell happens to be the name on my birth certificate but I can no more prove that here than anyone can prove their real identity OR disprove that they are Robert Rubin. How do you propose he does this?"
PA: Again, please recognize that my prior post incorporated implied humor, albeit unrecognized by all forum members.

RP: "If you disagree with him, fine but name calling serves no purpose. When I hear kids using foul language (every other word refering to the reproductive process) I often wonder if they know any other adjectives. Name calling reminds me of the same reaction. Sit down, gather your thoughts and engage the man in discussion."
PA: Okey doke Rich, so you recognize that the dollar faction bullies other governments to buy our fiat (i.e Japan), owns and manipulates the whore press (i.e. CNBC), regularly and fraudulently manipulates the "price" of gold and silver on the COMEX (refer to GATA findings), but the fine people who would and do continue to perpetuate the above actions would not stoop so HORRIBLY low as to try and post on forums so as to dissuade those who may be looking to purchase physical gold / silver? They would never be that dastardly! And if so, they would certainly have the nobility to state their intenions at the outset so as to let those that they intend to sway to understand their end goal. To this I say, the assuming, naieve and trusting are the first to succumb in a time of war. If I wanted to make "friends" and not directly engage those who I believe have specific and injurious motives regarding gold, I have plenty of outlets available other than this forum. Freedom is what we seek. In doing so, we must endure each other's point of view, commentary and conclusions. I believe that you are too consumed with trying to be nice and unoffensive to recognize that there exist people who would leverage your trust to command a presence on this forum that is detrimental to those who seek to understand the benefit of physical gold ownership.

RP: "If you can't, just side with the others and scream "cartel invader, intruder alert, or perhaps, creature from the dark side!" You are stating that only those who agree with your thoughts should be accorded any civility, those who don't you call names. If I were Robert I'd be long gone by now."
PA: Hardly. I have been routinely castrated on this forum as a result of my own ignorance, arrogance and porr judgment. If I engange a person on this forum, said person has nothing to prohibit him / her self from taering me apart using facts, better judgment or other information. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Bear in mind that we are discussing that which Kings and governments have been more than willing to send many a citizen into certain death (war) in order to improve said King's / government's economic position. This is heavy stuff and you need to be ready to fist fight sometimes instead of joust.

RP: "Should the forum hang out a sign that says "Beware all who venture herein, only one point of view allowed. Discussion of opposing opinions has been replaced with identity slander and character assassination."
PA: Nope. If you believe something, but only so much so that you abandon said belief upon being chastised on an internet forum, then it is time for a gut check. Get over it. Nobody walks away from this forum with a broken arm or bloody nose. I pray that people have not become so sheepish that they are no longer able to vehemently fight for what they believe within the arena of ideas.

RP: "Okay, soon we'll all be preaching the same company line and there will be more questions of where is so and so OR why doesn't Sir XX post anymore. Shall we rewrite the forum code of conduct to post only favorable opinions? Then if you hear an opinion you do not agree with, you'll be able to ask for it to be deleted."
PA: See above.

PA

heavy mettle

(10/11/2003; 22:05:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110249)

THE SPOILS OF WAR: The Secret Story of WWII Japanese & Nazi Gold

http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/the_spoils_of_war.htm
Snippet:

By David Guyatt
copyright 2002 for

The use of suspect gold to launder drug profits is well established. One example of such laundering activities concerns a rogue airline that had the reputation of flying anything to anywhere. Over a two-year period between 1989-91, the airline made four flights carrying gold bullion weighing 160 tonnes with a market value of two billion dollars. Each of the four flights carried boxes with twelve bars of gold to a box that overall weighed 41 tonnes per flight. All the boxes were palletised for easy loading and accompanied by a guard. The flights originated from Medellin, Columbia, and were airlifted to London and apparently cleared both ends without customs inspection. [1]

The amount of gold shipped was more than the gold reserves of most central banks. The question then arises: where did this gold originate? The likelihood is that it was part of the vast amounts of gold plundered in WWII by the Axis powers.

The story about what really happened to the loot plundered by the Nazis and Japanese during WWII remains one of the best-kept secrets of the last fifty years. Few outside of the charmed circle of initiated insiders possess any knowledge whatsoever of the true dimensions of what can be described as the biggest cover-up of all time.

But it is not just public awareness of what exactly "happened" to this plunder in the post war years that is the cause of supreme unease amongst the powers that be. It is the sheer magnitude of treasure forcibly confiscated by the Axis powers that causes trepidation. Were the actual dollar numbers involved to be revealed, it would lay bare an even more sensitive secret -- one that has endured for a hundred or more years.

A decades long propaganda campaign had served to focus public attention on the gold stolen from governments -- known as monetary gold -- as a means of eclipsing from public view far larger amounts of privately held gold that was also stolen.

The heavy cloak of disinformation and double-talk had still another layer. By putting the spotlight on Nazi plunder from the very beginning, public attention was diverted away from the industrial scale looting undertaken by Japan's special plunder teams known as the "Golden Lily." And it is here that the real story dwells.

Dollar Bill

(10/11/2003; 22:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110250)

*>*............+

Aristotle.
Greetings and Salutations.
I cant find error in Gold Standards points. Except perhaps where he thinks the choice is either arrogance or sarcasm.
Roberts point is out of the box, but neither of those ^two.

You said;
"...Good by taking the soft way out as a high-paid lackey for some truly ugly and despicable bullion banking task masters. Roughly speaking, these are the guys that Robert spoke of who foster the "U.S. privilege" through boot-on-neck tactics."
Roughly speaking indeed !

Is it all that long ago that china and russia gave up on thier approach to finance and decided to surrender to the west? They hated to turn on THAT dime. Non the less, they had no choice. Now they are playing the game the flawed humans of the "west" constructed.

I am sure it was no picnic in the seventies, in the midst of a -communist financial religion- nuclear threat very real cold war situation, to convince the -ahem- oil sandmen
to agree with the US and the Nato countries on low price gold. Escorting russia and china down the long road to
great change and new financial starts was also a very complex and difficult task.
It could easily have gone very wrong.

I know the media is pounding us relentlessly with anti US
propaganda. And the financial system IS flawed, yet we have to watch it or we lose the history of how we got here.

It was not a dark and sinister road that the US chose to walk. It is a world with dark and sinister elements that
infect all and the track record of the US is not....well,
there is no merit in painting it black.

Ten Bears

(10/11/2003; 22:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110251)

Logic & Fallacies

http://www.infidels.org/news/atheism/logic.htmlThe above referenced site provides an extensive list of logical fallacies, including "argumentum ad hominem". Quite an interesting read. After reading some recent posts on this excellent forum, I found it informative to review the above referenced site.

Kilo

(10/11/2003; 23:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110252)

Just thinking out loud......

..... of how our own government, in the form of the U.S. Mint, spends fiat to purchase gold, to coin it into a highly marketable coin form, only to re-sell it again for more fiat.

What a concept !

Looks like maybe they should give up while they are ahead..... like somewhere after step one?

heavy mettle

(10/12/2003; 02:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110253)

SPOILS OF WAR: Black Gold

After re-reading the article, it seems a bit far fetched that there is ten times as much gold as officially reported and that 90% of the world's gold is either black gold or privately held gold. I can see where the greed of some would want to gain access to the world's wealth. Is it any wonder central banks sell their gold at such low prices.

Would anyone else have an estimated figure or is it just a matter of guess work?

Belgian

(10/12/2003; 02:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110254)

Gold Wealth....

There is NOT "one" Robert...but an unaccountable amount of people (groups of people) that are ready to state (when provoked) the same " Gold is NOT Wealth" axioma/perception. Yes, "Gold is Wealth", has and still is, percepted as a provocation.

The West has succeeded in putting the fundamentals upside down. Third world regions should be regarded as being on the road to development and it is (was) conveniently OK that these regions still continue to associate GOLD with WEALTH !

But...hey, look what is happening now...

1,3 Billion Chinese seem to be going for Gold...and...a brand new Central Bank (ECB) with a brand new currency (euro) seems to have a rather *un-conventional* idea, about Gold (reserves) ...and some of the 1,2 Billion muslims seem to be interested in the general idea of "monetary union" and associate currency (dinar) with Gold.

It seems as if the fabricated "elitist" notion of Gold being Wealth is evolving again, against the established Gold domination (containment) that has been so succesfully installed in the past 20 years (1980 > 1999)!!!

Said it before and want to repeat it Again : We have no idea, as to what extend, we are massively overwhelmed with the organized crime of global "perception" fabrication !
Global infantilization...the absolute terror of powerfull utterly nonsense and straigth lying ! Even the half-truths are gone. One only starts lying, full time about everything, when desperation becomes very visible.

The only Big mistake I might make in this conclusion is that I have matured a bit (Thanks to CPM-intermediair) and do see/realise those lies, now !? In other words...the lying/deceiving has always existed.

Yes, I have been a Goldwealth infidel for some time ! Me too have been (happily) paralysed by the paper-reproducing-magic. But something IS changing ! The Paper-richness isn't as impressive as it used to be. Gold Wealth isn't looking as "d�mod�" - "obsolete", anymore.

The ruling (collaborating) "bullion bank-spider web" has noticed this dramatic, juvenile start in "NEW" Gold perception ! The Gold-containment, might get out of their hands ! Soon, there will be a 180� turn in, political correct, Gold Wealth perception. The WAG was evidence that those Gold perception rulers went the bridge too far. They did not want running the risk of "killing" the fundamental/basic notion of Gold Wealth.

Because...there comes a time that the ignorant, complacent, general public, starts to take notice (at last) of the degree of nonsense and blatant lies, they have been " conveniently " believing for some happy period. Simply because, things are "working" anymore. I'm talking about un-employment and how to resolve this structural, everlasting, problem, for instance.

More and renewed, dramatically needed, growth-obsession with more and renewed, relentless confetti-expansion that keeps hollowing the ultimate basis for the reached level of prosperity based on delusive NON-WEALTH ! In order to have obtained this degree of virtual prosperity...a lot of stupid arrogance was (is) necessary !

A Free Gold Market should take the negative wealth-connotation that goes with Gold, away. *Free*, means "for all" in a Western context...Free to build one's own wealth-security on a reliable gold-basis. A collectivity based on responsible-responsibilized individuals ! Not paper-maniacs, building towers of Babylon, swapping more overvalued paper against other overvalued paper and making non-payments. (Yesterday's GE swap for Ammersham = most recent example)

In our western hemisphere (US-Euroland) we are facing the emergency of a rather *impossible* message : Time out folks, w're gone have to work much harder for much less !!! Ohlala, mama mia ! This globalized planet, our village, is facing some hard transitional changes. Ths "debt-driven", "political-economy" - system, isn't working anymore. We went too far away from the ancient "Wealth" base.

And it is exactly because we went that far away from it that the return to the real and free wealth-base is percepted as such a childish, outdated idea (principle).
OK, fair enough, but in the mean time we all start to notice that we are getting stuck, all together now.

The general teneur of this forum is to advocate a return to Gold's fundamentals. A/FOA have been outlining a workable Gold-Trail. Allow me to emphasize, AGAIN, that NOT one single soul out there is saying ONE single word on the presented model/idea of a FREE GOLD MARKET !!!
It isn't even critisized or ridiculed !!! I do like this deafhening silence, immensely. I do enjoy the absolute silence on Gold's Fundamentals ! There's even not a single soul who dares to mention(refer to) the Bretton Woods history. Absolute silence on the "floating" aspect of currencies. I do remember the eighties where these subjects were daily talked about.

This, "all is well", attitude is the Goebbelianic propaganda of a globalized perceptions-machine. Nice "Reich" building, indeed...and also with a subtle Gold-looting as well.

A NEW and FREE Gold market in the background of a further globalizing economy is close to an almost perfect world.
Prosperity can only flourish on *stability* ! A Free choice to Gold-Wealth IS the most "stabilizing" concept one can dream off. Gold is and should be (become) the ultimate "stabilizer" !!! The longer we stay further away from Gold, the more we de-stabilize.

But the installation of a Free Gold market has ONE terrible dramatic consequence : A gigantic power shift *AWAY* from the dollar !!! And it is "THIS" that explains everything !!!

(10/12/2003; 04:06:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110256)

Rothbard on the monetary history of 20th century

http://www.mises.org/money/4s0.aspBelgian msg#: 110254 SAYS," There's even not a single soul who dares to mention(refer to) the Bretton Woods history. Absolute silence on the "floating" aspect of currencies. I do remember the eighties where these subjects were daily talked about."
---Accepting the invitation :) ----
---Quoting Rothbard----

"To understand the current monetary chaos, it is necessary to trace briefly the international monetary developments of the twentieth century, and to see how each set of unsound inflationist interventions has collapsed of its own inherent problems, only to set the stage for another round of interventions. The twentieth century history of the world monetary order can be divided into nine phases. Let us examine each in turn."

(10/12/2003; 04:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110257)

Rothbard on The Classical Gold Standard, 1815-1914

http://www.mises.org/money/4s1.asp"We can look back upon the "classical" gold standard, the Western world of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, as the literal and metaphorical Golden Age. With the exception of the troublesome problem of silver, the world was on a gold standard, which meant that each national currency (the dollar, pound, franc, etc.) was merely a name for a certain definite weight of gold. The "dollar," for example, was defined as 1/20 of a gold ounce, the pound sterling as slightly less than 1/4 of a gold ounce, and so on. This meant that the "exchange rates" between the various national currencies were fixed, not because they were arbitrarily controlled by government, but in the same way that one pound of weight is defined as being equal to sixteen ounces.

The international gold standard meant that the benefits of having one money medium were extended throughout the world. One of the reasons for the growth and prosperity of the United States has been the fact that we have enjoyed one money throughout the large area of the country. We have had a gold or at least a single dollar standard with the entire country, and did not have to suffer the chaos of each city and county issuing its own money which would then fluctuate with respect to the moneys of all the other cities and counties. The nineteenth century saw the benefits of one money throughout the civilized world. One money facilitated freedom of trade, investment, and travel throughout that trading and monetary area, with the consequent growth of specialization and the international division of labor.

It must be emphasized that gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium. Above all, the supply and provision of gold was subject only to market forces, and not to the arbitrary printing press of the government.

The international gold standard provided an automatic market mechanism for checking the inflationary potential of government. It also provide an automatic mechanism for keeping the balance of payments of each country in equilibrium. As the philosopher and economist David Hume pointed out in the mid-eighteenth century, if one nation, say France, inflates its supply of paper francs, its prices rise; the increasing incomes in paper francs stimulates imports from abroad, which are also spurred by the fact that prices of imports are now relatively cheaper than prices at home. At the same time, the higher prices at home discourage exports abroad; the result is a deficit in the balance of payments, which must be paid for by foreign countries cashing in francs for gold. The gold outflow means that France must eventually contract its inflated paper francs in order to prevent a loss of all of its gold. If the inflation has taken the form of bank deposits, then the French banks have to contract their loans and deposits in order to avoid bankruptcy as foreigners call upon the French banks to redeem their deposits in gold. The contraction lowers prices at home, and generates an export surplus, thereby reversing the gold outflow, until the price levels are equalized in France and in other countries as well.

It is true that the interventions of governments previous to the nineteenth century weakened the speed of this market mechanism, and allowed for a business cycle of inflation and recession within this gold standard framework. These interventions were particularly: the governments' monopolizing of the mint, legal tender laws, the creation of paper money, and the development of inflationary banking propelled by each of the governments. But while these interventions slowed the adjustments of the market, these adjustments were still in ultimate control of the situation. So while the classical gold standard of the nineteenth century was not perfect, and allowed for relatively minor booms and busts, it still provided us with by far the best monetary order the world has ever known, an order which worked, which kept business cycles from getting out of hand, and which enabled the development of free international trade, exchange, and investment."

(10/12/2003; 04:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110258)

Rothbard on World War I and After

http://www.mises.org/money/4s2.aspIf the classical gold standard worked so well, why did it break down? It broke down because governments were entrusted with the task of keeping their monetary promises, of seeing to it that pounds, dollars, francs, etc., were always redeemable in gold as they and their controlled banking system had pledged. It was not gold that failed; it was the folly of trusting government to keep its promises. To wage the catastrophic war of World War I, each government had to inflate its own supply of paper and bank currency. So severe was this inflation that it was impossible for the warring governments to keep their pledges, and so they went "off the gold standard," i.e., declared their own bankruptcy, shortly after entering the war. All except the United States, which entered the war late, and did not inflate the supply of dollars enough to endanger redeemability. But, apart from the U.S., the world suffered what some economists now hail as the Nirvana of freely-fluctuating exchange rates (now called "dirty floats") competitive devaluations, warring currency blocks, exchange controls, tariffs and quotas, and the breakdown of international trade and investment. The inflated pounds, francs, marks, etc., depreciated in relation to gold and the dollar; monetary chaos abounded throughout the world.

In those days there were, happily, very few economists to hail this situation as the monetary ideal. It was generally recognized that Phase II was the threshold to international disaster, and politicians and economists looked around for ways to restore the stability and freedom of the classical gold standard.

(10/12/2003; 04:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110259)

Rothbard on The Gold Exchange Standard (Britain and the U.S.) 1926-1931

http://www.mises.org/money/4s3.asp"How to return to the Golden Age? The sensible thing to do would have been to recognize the facts of reality, the fact of the depreciated pound, franc, mark, etc., and to return to the gold standard at a redefined rate: a rate that would recognize the existing supply of money and price levels. The British pound, for example, had been traditionally defined at a weight which made it equal to $4.86. But by the end of World War I, the inflation in Britain had brought the pound down to approximately $3.50 on the free foreign exchange market. Other currencies were similarly depreciated. The sensible policy would have been for Britain to return to gold at approximately $3.50, and for the other inflated countries to do the same. Phase I could have been smoothly and rapidly restored. Instead, the British made the fateful decision to return to gold at the old par of $4.86. [2] It did so for reasons of British national "prestige," and in a vain attempt to re-establish London as the "hard money" financial center of the world. To succeed at this piece of heroic folly, Britain would have had to deflate severely its money supply and its price levels, for at a $4.86 pound British export prices were far too high to be competitive in the world markets. But deflation was now politically out of the question, for the growth of trade unions, buttressed by a nationwide system of unemployment insurance, had made wage rates rigid downward; in order to deflate, the British government would have had to reverse the growth of its welfare state. In fact, the British wished to continue to inflate money and prices. As a result of combining inflation with a return to an overvalued par, British exports were depressed all during the 1920s and unemployment was severe all during the period when most of the world was experiencing an economic boom.

How could the British try to have their cake and eat it at the same time? By establishing a new international monetary order which would induce or coerce other governments into inflating or into going back to gold at overvalued pars for their own currencies, thus crippling their own exports and subsidizing imports from Britain. This is precisely what Britain did, as it led the way, at the Genoa Conference of 1922, into creating a new international monetary order, the gold-exchange standard.

The gold-exchange standard worked as follows: The United States remained on the classical gold standard, redeeming dollars in gold. Britain and the other countries of the West, however, returned to a pseudo-gold standard, Britain in 1926 and the other countries around the same time. British pounds and other currencies were not payable in gold coins, but only in large-sized bars, suitable only for international transactions. This prevented the ordinary citizens of Britain and other European countries from using gold in their daily life, and thus permitted a wider degree of paper and bank inflation. But furthermore, Britain redeemed pounds not merely in gold, but also in dollars; while the other countries redeemed their currencies not in gold, but in pounds. And most of these countries were induced by Britain to return to gold at overvalued parities. the result was a pyramiding of U.S. on gold, of British pounds on dollars, and of other European currencies on pounds�the "gold-exchange standard," with the dollar and the pound as the two "key currencies."

Now when Britain inflated, and experienced a deficit in its balance of payments, the gold standard mechanism did not work to quickly restrict British inflation. For instead of other countries redeeming their pounds for gold, they kept the pounds and inflated on top of them. Hence Britain and Europe were permitted to inflate unchecked, and British deficits could pile up unrestrained by the market discipline of the gold standard. As for the United States, Britain was able to induce the U.S. to inflate dollars so as not to lose many dollar reserves or gold to the United States.

The point of the gold-exchange standard is that it cannot last; the piper must eventually be paid, but only in a disastrous reaction to the lengthy inflationary boom. As sterling balances piled up in France, the U.S., and elsewhere, the slightest loss of confidence in the increasingly shaky and jerry-built inflationary structure was bound to lead to general collapse. This is precisely what happened in 1931; the failure of inflated banks throughout Europe, and the attempt of "hard money" France to cash in its sterling balances for gold, led Britain to go off the gold standard completely. Britain was soon followed by the other countries of Europe."

---having used too much bandwidth, I stop, the rest can be found by following the link---

Belgian

(10/12/2003; 05:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110261)

Bagdad Blast....

How is this related to Gold...? Increasing geo-political
"in-stability" drains a lot of money (efforts) into unproductive/uneconomic, activity. More reason for having to expand the debt-confetti-bergs to unbearable proportions vis � vis the real economic prestations.
Forget about the re-building of Iraq, wich never was the intention anyway. The longer this impossible situation, without any exit possibility, drags on...the more the real purposes (oil control) for the occupation will become publicly clearer and more difficult to maintain !

This is surely affecting the oil-pricing-policies, dragging another currency (euro) more and more into the equation.
The recent euro and Russian energy trial balloons must be seen as the openening of a second front !

Belgian

(10/12/2003; 05:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110262)

@ge

I do enjoy your postings, Sir ! All of them.
I was refering to the financial "media", most of the self proclaimed or publicly bombarded Gold-authorities, official and unofficial. I excluded, of course, the many "thinkers" who "unfortunately" are reaching such a low number of listeners, followers, candidate gold-students, in our western hemisphere.

Even the efforts of the honorable Senator, Ron Paul, isn't resulting in some more Gold-consciousness outside the minuscule goldbug society.

Also note the following two aspects :
1/ In Euroland, there is NO gold-talk !!!
2/ The gold-talk coming from the Anglo American angle is almost 100% dollar oriented and excluding oil and the euro into the equation.

The combination of 1/ and 2/ might say something more coherent.
Thanks for your valued contributions, ge.

silvercollector

(10/12/2003; 07:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110263)

Please set me straight

The new gold exchange in China is a physical market, yes?

The new exchange in India is paper (futures), yes?

Is the new exchange (India) a good thing?

Are there more exchanges upcoming? Physical, paper, otherwise? Good, bad, indifferent?

Thanks in advance.

Cavan Man

(10/12/2003; 07:49:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110267)

The best propaganda in the world.......

LEDYARD KING GANNETT NEWS SERVICE The Olympian Online

IRAQ: Latest developments

Your thoughts about war with Iraq.

WASHINGTON -- Letters from hometown soldiers describing their successes rebuilding Iraq have been appearing in newspapers across the country as U.S. public opinion on the mission sours.
And all the letters are the same.

A Gannett News Service search found identical letters from different soldiers with the 2nd Battalion of the 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, also known as "The Rock," in 11 newspapers, including Snohomish, Wash.

The Olympian received two identical letters signed by different hometown soldiers: Spc. Joshua Ackler and Spc. Alex Marois, who is now a sergeant. The paper declined to run either because of a policy not to publish form letters.

The five-paragraph letter talks about the soldiers' efforts to re-establish police and fire departments, and build water and sewer plants in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, where the unit is based.

"The quality of life and security for the citizens has been largely restored, and we are a large part of why that has happened," the letter reads.

It describes people waving at passing troops and children running up to shake their hands and say thank you.

It's not clear who wrote the letter or organized sending it to soldiers' hometown papers.

Six soldiers reached by GNS directly or through their families said they agreed with the letter's thrust. But none of the soldiers said he wrote it, and one said he didn't even sign it.

Cor Tauri

(10/12/2003; 09:47:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110273)

various posts over the past several days

I have read with great interest the messages posted over the past few days. I wasn't going to post anything but Remarx and perhaps others seem to be on the brink of leaving. That would be unfortunate.

Much of the controversy seems to revolve around Robert. There is suspicion that he is a "plant". I would humbly suggest that such suspicions are beneath the fine members of this forum. Really, would a "plant" bother with the "true believers"? Those who reach this forum are almost certainly already convinced regarding Gold and Silver. A plant would be more effective at places like Silicon Investor or the various other low grade "investment" discussion forums, not a gold forum, not this one. As to those of you who are outraged at Robert's stark analysis of dollar hedgemony, who here has painted such a clear picture of the reality of the current monetary system. Oh, if Robert is a plant, I wish I had sent him. Such hubris he portrays, such an ambitions scheme so blind to the karma, the consequences it invokes. Who now can fail to understand what motivates the forces at work that Another revealed to us. Who now can fail to understand the power of the "political will" which Friend of Another explained would drive this unfolding gold market to it's destiny.
I can only imagine that Robert most eloquently stated the "rights" of the $ system to inspire a righteous rage among the considerate and rational thinkers of this forum. How could anyone who believes in the validity, the sustainability of such a system disclose it as so nakedly evil? If by chance Robert truly believes such a system is fitting, then perhaps he shocked himself into awakening with his statements. If by chance he remains even yet asleep to what is and will unfold, then perhaps at least he will have a better understanding of the system as it evolves into something far less favorable to the $ block.
I was reminded of the ultimate evolution of this new gold market by posts from Dollar Bill and Belgian. Some one wrote of what they would do if gold was $30,000 and a loaf of bread was $2. In this they have forseen the shape of things to come. They mentioned overvalued and exploding Ponzi scheme.
Belgian, you seem most knowledgeable about Europe and the Euro system. In time, when there is a great federation of European States. With the combined military might of a resurgant Germany and France. With the nuclear arsenal of Russia, which has been kept modern and advanced despite the problems in Russia. When this great power, a unified Europe, desires to spend money for their social programs, health care for all, old age pensions for all and so forth. Will they not run into overspending? Yet this is not permitted by their Maastricht Treaty? Is this not the time that the importance of marking to market their gold reserves will be seen by all with eyes and sense? In order to avoid overspending will they not have to purchase some gold to increase their reserves? This would cause the price of gold in Euro, the currency they use to purchase it, to increase, thus increasing the value of their gold reserves and eliminating the gap between reserves and money supply? We have examined how the US$ is a freely printed currency with which the US buys all the productive effort of the world for free. Will not a Euro currency become the very same thing except that in order to avoid printing beyond their reserves, they will drive up the price of their gold reserves to compensate for the excesses of their spending?
Free gold indeed! They will free it and whip it up in price to pay for their socilism. $30,000 an ounce indeed! When North Africa joins the European Federation, how high will the ECB drive gold to pay for bringing North Africa up to par in infrastructure? Europe will print the premium fiat and back it with the gold of the world which they will buy with their fiat for ANY price, the higher the better. And oil, the Arabs were ambivalent toward Europe I think, until our bombs drove them into the arms of the Euro. Backed by oil, by gold, by nuclear power, forged and guided by the cunning wisdom hammered out between German and French minds. Minds full of the history and workings of money. What have you wrought? Well, perhaps I am a bit overwrought.
How high can gold go before it is fairly considered overvalued? When I can buy all the fields in Kansas with a Maple Leaf, is it time to diversify?
Robert has shown us the maddness of the current system, but I suggest another maddness will in time come to replace it. The dollar will not die, it will live on in an "Optimum Currency Area" probably consisting of North and South America plus Japan. Perhaps again in our nation people will demand free silver. But this time it will be the bankers not the farmers. In Asia the stirrings of an "Optimum Currency Area" are beginning. Japan however, seems forever tied to it's conquerors. I think it was our host who bet FOA that the 51st state would enter the Union with a Queen. Perhaps it will be an emporor not a queen.

P.S. Dollar Bill, Jesus Christ, the Buddha and vast numbers of saints and other sorts have found the way or been the way to live life without suffering. The buddhists have no cast system. What you wrote about truth, ultimate truth and nothingness... well... I am not wise enough to explain why it is so ironic that you would write something like that. The list of religions your son was taught in public school did not seem to include the state religion of the US, which apparently is the worship of Mammon. Best to teach him at home. The little book is sweet in the mouth, but bitter in the belly. If we are called to follow the Lamb that was slain, we should do so empty handed, with humility. Nor should we expect any fate greater or lesser than He who was slain. Though the bitterness of our fate would be great, if one has faith enough one can follow without suffering and only joy. But there are other ways as well, and to judge them is not left to us. If you can do all these things, then gold is truly useless to you.

Ten Bears

(10/12/2003; 10:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110276)

A harsh view from down under

http://www.ideal.net.au/~robertsj/economic-lunacy.htmlsnip> "The simple and incontrovertible truth is that the Australian Dollar is artificially maintained at a low level, in order to enable its primary materials to be purchased at a ridiculously low international price. This suits those Australian companies (owned, as many of them undoubtedly are, by international capitalist organizations) which make quick and easy profits from the massive and uncontrolled exploitation of Australia's primary resources. The policy of successive Australian Governments has been to sell off the country's inherent mineral wealth as quickly as possible, without regard to the future needs of posterity. The motive is present expediency and greed."

cockerel1

(10/12/2003; 11:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110277)

General comments.

In re-iterating the words of Oscar Wilde.

"A cynic is a person who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."

Our lives are enriched by the varieties of peoples that we have the privelige to encounter in our lifetimes. Also, to try and portray hilarity on this forum, you need to be definitive in your prose, otherwise it may be construed as something else.

Also, regarding Gold and its importance. IMO, wealth is in the "Eye, and the belief, of the Beholder". As gold is the oldest known physically acceptable worldwide asset, it has to play a prominent part. Yes, there are other assets, but they need to stand the test of time. Oil, in the grand scheme of things, is a "new commodity" that will eventually be depleted.

Suggest if Oil is the prominent asset in the eyes of some, they are being selfish as to just who and what society in general, and this generation in particular, is all about.

Robert

(10/12/2003; 11:20:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110278)

Belgian: paper assets, gold and wealth

Let me start off by emphasizing that in posting this message I do not intend to offend anybody (if I do, I apologize in advance).

Yes, GOLD IS WEALTH. I have no problem in admitting the truth of that statement. However, as long as the term "wealth" is not precisely defined, that statement does not mean much. For instance, if we define wealth to mean plenty of money, gold, silver and diamonds, then obviously, GOLD IS WEALTH and any discussion on this subject is a waste of time (and space on this fine forum).
Personally, I feel uneasy with that definition of wealth. Let me try to explain why I feel that way by looking at paper assets (stocks, bonds, options etc) first.

Belgian, you state that you are a convert from a former paper asset "addict". You switched to gold because you sense that the paper world is crumbling. Yes, you are absolutely right. Without question, the paper world is crumbling indeed. However, THE PAPER WORLD IS NOT CRUMBLING BECAUSE IT IS MADE OF PAPER. And it is not crumbling because of the many crooks running the paper world. To understand that statement, we need to recall what paper assets are. Contrary to gold, paper assets have no intrinsic value. Paper assets are valuable because they represent LEGAL CLAIMS ON PRESENT AND FUTURE PRODUCTION OF REAL GOODS. The paper world is crumbling in my opinion because the underlying production of real goods is crumbling. Consider the economically most advanced nation on earth. Since the late 1970's industrial production in the US is declining at a slow but steady rate. There are many reasons for this phenomenon. In my opinion, the most important reason is that the US is running out of natural resources on which industrial civilization is based. As explained in the many postings of Black Blade, the situation is especially bleak in energy (oil, gas and eletricity). For instance, re natural gas, the US is soon going to face the alternative either to heat private homes (and to relocate industry abroad) or to let people freeze in the winter in order to supply the industry with NG and electricity. To make the story short, paper assets must indeed collapse if the underlying production of real goods can not be maintained.

No other than our chairmen Alan Greenspan has stated publicly that he is not worried about the decline of industrial production as long as wealth is generated by the financial service industry in form of rising stock and bond markets as well as rising home values. In my opinion, we will all pay dearly for this tragic fallacy. Since the first energy crisis in the 1970's, the American elite in politics and economics decided to "solve" that problem by letting industrial production relocate to second and third world countries. Cheap labor in these countries would compensate for the rising cost of energy and other resources. The US would transform in time to a pure service type economy emphasizing finance and insurance. Since the products of a service type economy are only legal claims, this explains the phenomenal growth of the legal profession in the US (90% of all lawyers in the world practice in the US). In order to enforce legal contracts, you need plenty of police and prisons. Indeed, the US is keeping almost 1% of its population in prison for breaking various "laws" and that percentage is rising. To enforce legal contracts abroad, you need a strong military. Indeed the US is spending more on defense than the rest of the world combined. The loss of personal freedom in this country is inevitable too once you decide to abandon production of real goods and go for "services" only.

What does this all have to do with gold? I am afraid that trumpeting "gold is wealth" and ignoring the true causes for the present economic crisis, we continue only to subscribe to the same fallacy of which Alan Greenspan is the most prominent victim. The fallacy is that if you are in possession of tangible monetary wealth, you can ignore what is happening in the real world. The fallacy consists in the belief that if you have gold, you will always be able to buy quality food, cheap energy, quality medical services, quality public education and live in a safe crime free neighbourhood - all basic ingredients of what I consider real wealth. Enough said.

Cor Tauri

(10/12/2003; 11:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110280)

breakin the law

Randy, If you delete this, I understand. It is appropriate for you do delete this. If you pull my code, well that seems harsh, but I understand that as well. I am clearly violating the posting guidelines, almost willfully. I can try to metaphore morph all this into some gold anlogy, but ...
yea, yea a metaphore, thats the ticket...
Ok,
Gold is. It exists.
It appears to be eternal. All the gold mined, or nearly all is still in posession of humanity.
So, what more can we say about it? If it had no measureable characteristics, we could not say anything more. Another and FOA, the great prophets of Gold have revealed much to us. Yet in the final analysis all that they have said is simply the words of fallible mortal men. They could be lying, wrong, insane, or we could have misunderstood them. And it would do no good for them to appeal to anysort of deeper mystical realationship with gold. For if they claimed special insight or revelation in to the movings of gold on the LBMA or Comex, it would not enhance their authority one wit, for they might be wrong about that as well. In they same way, they can not claim any special perrogative regarding gold due their identity, background or education. It is of no use for Another to say "Behold, I am Another, get thee down off thine camel and collect up the stones you find in this place this night" Sure, it might add a bit of credibility if we find in the morning that the stones we filled our pockets with were sapphires, but it should not, for it could still be the voice of a madman who just got lucky. Or a very rich madman who liked to trick passing strangers into gathering the sapphires he had strewn about the dessart. Not likely but could be.
So, we can not accept anything Another and FOA stated on blind faith alone. To do this is worse than to accept the advise of the "experts" who at least publish their names. Nor can we accept the statistics from the BLS regarding unemployment, for they are truly useless. Unless we do the fieldwork and compile the stats ourselves, we must assume the very very faint possibility that these statistics do not accuratly portray reality (on the whole they tend to give a nice example of the inherent emptiness of truth).
So we are left with two great prophets of Gold, whose apokolypsis we can not accept on words alone. How then can we gain profits from our prophets? We can accept only that part of their message that our own sense, reason, and intuition can grasp after carefull contemplation. To understand the whole is certainly a great goal. But to understand the essential message is the great task. Now, some have suggested that Another and his disciple FOA wrote their messages in a form that can be understood on three levels. The level of the small investor, the level of the great investor, and the level of the serious a$$ bigshot who makes national monetary policy. Some have suggested that the message was one of kindness to the small, instruction to the great, and dire warning to the poilicy maker.
The critical thing in all of this however is to act according to ones own understanding. Do not act out of consideration to the scribes and pharasiees on CNBC. Neither should you believe according to the teachings of the high priests of the advisory newsletters. Think not of the common sense or conventional wisdom, for it teaches that gold is dead. But then so is Nietzsche err ahh Keynes yea John Maynerd Keynes, so don't listen to him either. Trust not the interpetations of Gurus, even if they name themselves after greek philosophers, (sorry, I just had too). Trust according to your own understanding of the message. And that message and its elaboration into our scripture is found in the archives. Act on as much as you understand, but no more than that. For our prophets were here, but not for very long, and they have since departed from us. Read and understand, lest your profits depart from yea as well.

Druid

(10/12/2003; 11:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110281)

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL DEPLETION

http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/Druid: For some interesting articles and abstracts reference the above subject, click on the link and scroll down. My own take on the matter is that gold has been recognized as wealth much longer then oil (gold mining has been around much longer then oil drilling). Oil is a means to end (albeit a valuable and efficient means given all the conversion factors attributable to it). If I am not mistaken, fiat currency has been recognized longer then oil as a medium of exchange and one could argue that fiat currency is more valuable within a set certain time frame(history reflects that the value of all fiat currencies approach there marginal cost of production over a given time frame, zero). In my book, ignorance of what constitutes and differentiates the concepts of value and wealth previously mentioned holds the greatest value of all, but for whom?

cockerel1

(10/12/2003; 12:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110283)

Wealth, Money etc.

I do not remember where I obtained the following. If it was from this forum, I apologize in advance for duplication. If it is new to this board, I hope some find it interesting.

52 Economic Truths

by Merrill Jenkins, 1919-1979, Monetary Realist

1. Retaining the God-given right to distribute one's own wealth is the only guarantee of freedom from tyranny.
2. Money accepted as a medium of exchange subjects people and their government to the influence of its creator.
3. Money is: credit - imaginary demand - inflation - seigniorage.
4. More cannot be returned to an only source than is taken from it.
5. A contract cannot protect anyone who lacks the wealth with which to force its fulfillment.
6. Supply and demand are wealth and cannot be imbalanced.
7. During an inflationary effect "prices" and employment rise together.
8. During a deflationary effect "prices" and employment fall together.
9. During any exchange, whatever is accepted as a medium of exchange in lieu of wealth is imaginary demand (money, credit, inflation).
10. Wealth is material - money is psychological.
11. Money can be created or destroyed in the human mind.
12. Inflation cannot be controlled.
13. Money created in the human mind has to be accepted by all others to function. Once money is generally accepted, all people will create it in volume to satisfy their desires, and control is impossible.
14. Money accepted in exchange for wealth is subconscious fraud.
15. Rent is material - interest is psychological.
16. Rent is a wealth charge for the use of borrowed wealth.
17. Interest payment would require that more be returned to an only source than was obtained from it.
18. Interest is money charged for the use of borrowed money.
19. Wherever money is accepted as a medium of exchange, wealth and freedom are forfeited.
20. Money is accepted in exchange for wealth only until the psychological nature of money is exposed, or until wealth expropriation consumes most of production and the public begins to starve.
21. Where freedom reigns, those who do not produce food directly have to produce wealth or perform service to exchange for it.
22. Wealth exchanges freely on historic worth. Money exchanges due to legal tender laws and the public's ignorance of its true nature.
23. Money is a force of evil.
24. Attempts to control and circumvent free market natural laws causes hidden free market transactions.
25. Wealth is supply or demand by use or viewpoint.
26. As the exchanges of money (imaginary demand) for wealth increase, the parity of money falls.
27. Inflation is possible without the inflationary effect only at the expense of the standard of living, until wealth expropriation consumes most of production and the public begins to starve.
28. Inflation held as savings does not cause the inflationary effect.
29. Inflation feeds on itself and accumulates at an ever increasing rate.
30. Money may exchange for wealth but it can never be wealth.
31. All money is imaginary and its volume can not be measured.
32. Wealth only as a media makes inflation impossible.
33. Inflation ends with deflation.
34. Money is valueless unless accepted in exchange for something.
35. Wealth has worth in use, consumption, or as media. Money depends on imagination and is usable only as a medium of exchange.
36. Deflation can be honorable only by redemption.
37. The deflationary effect is possible without a deflationary exchange of tokens.
38. Money has to have parity to have exchange value.
39. Wage and price controls obscure the inflationary effect but cannot control inflation.
40. Parities are determined by exchanges developed by competitive bidding with respect to return on labor, variations in time, location and circumstance.
41. Exchanges determine parities.
42. Wealth supports independence - money enslaves.
43. Government regulations of the use of capital inhibit free enterprise and cause economic decline.
44. Conspiracy to expropriate wealth with money assures the eventual destruction of the conspiracy.
45. The main economic function of money is the expropriation of wealth.
46. Unless wealth exchanges for wealth directly, credit extension or wealth expropriation is the result.
47. Take away all that a man produces and he stops working.
48. Supply can never exceed demand because a quantity cannot exceed itself.
49. A fractional reserve monetary system embezzles production within its sphere of influence.
50. Controlled prices oppose competitive parities.
51. No one can discover and disclose a truth based on a false premise.
52. Money expropriates wealth.

cockerel1

(10/12/2003; 12:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110284)

Sorry for the first post!

It was premature. I did not write the post and needed to explain that.

My apologies!

Chris Powell

(10/12/2003; 12:38:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110285)

(No Subject)

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1718Unwinding of yen carry trade threatens 1998-style fall
in dollar.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Robert

(10/12/2003; 12:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110286)

cockerel1: I agree with your statement

"Suggest if Oil is the prominent asset in the eyes of some, they are being selfish as to just who and what society in general, and this generation in particular, is all about".

You are right. Civilizations come and go. As the Roman civilization passed, so will our present industrial civilization be history one day. Unfortunately, the death of industrial civilization will be accompanied by lots of pain and human suffering. The question is: Should we be indifferent to that coming human catastrophy? I am not old enough in order to answer this question with a resoundding "YES!".

cockerel1

(10/12/2003; 13:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110287)

Robert - msg#: 110286

One of the dangers of not studying, or being taught history, and not just American history, is that people tend to become quite introverted and lose sight of where we came from, how we arrived here, and where we can and need to go.

We, the people of this small planet, have faced and overcome many challenges. This generation will be no different. Even the hardships, when they arrive, will be faced with a neverending desire to want to survive.

I for one, have a lot of faith in man. Even though he has the neverending abilty to keep messing up, still he survives.

And so be it!

(10/12/2003; 14:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110289)

@Belgian

Thanks for your kind words. Lack of financial media interest in gold may indicate that we are in an early phase of the gold bull market. There is a saying that the bull market functions in such a way that most people stay out of the market, while the bear market functioning keeps most of the people in the market. Being in synchronization with the business cycle is very difficult and time consuming. Monitor market valuations, FX rates, interest rates & differentials, monetary aggregates, debt levels, demographic considerations, geopolitics etc. etc. Moreover, one has to read various commentaries to form an opinion. Without the internet, it would be very very difficult...

Max Rabbitz

(10/12/2003; 14:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110290)

Robert....Gold is Wealth?

Robert........where to start.........Don't worry about offending me. Truth often offends when the opposing arguements are weak. This tactic is now commonly used in American Academia to shut down and eliminate critics.

I agree with your concerns but you set up a straw man to knock down when you say......"The fallacy consists in the belief that if you have gold, you will always be able to buy quality food, cheap energy, quality medical services, quality public education and live in a safe crime free neighbourhood - all basic ingredients of what I consider real wealth. Enough said."

Just the opposite has been said here over and over again. No one can guarantee these things. Prepare as best you can. Gold is a form of wealth. Perhaps the best. Ignore it at your peril. Of course some have great wealth with no gold. Fidel Castro commands the resources of an entire island and can get just about anything he wants with a wink of the eye. Slaves are wealth too if you take care of them. So are soybeans. We all know this. Gold has advantages for preserving wealth in difficult times that soybeans or slaves do not have.

I share your concern for the state of the world but my list of causes goes further and includes the self-righteous non-sense of socialist theory divorced from all natural reality, a national banking system that encourages populist politicians and economic bubbles, an economically ignorant populace, massive increases in populations and the religions/cults/sects that encourage it, and/or the destruction of the non-believers. Paper money is useful but there must be a regulator somewhere in the system. Gold provided this in the past and will likely soon again in some form. So as has been said.......get you some and prepare as best you can.

Mr Gresham

(10/12/2003; 14:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110291)

I was going to say something...

about handling and accepting differing viewpoints in a forum filled with intelligent posters, but -- guess what -- you've handled it just fine, IMO. "Men of good will" may butt heads, but, until the occasional actual troll (intentional disrupter) appears to be dealt with, all is merely the discussion that makes us stronger. Thanks to all.

My strong hope is that anyone will always feel welcomed joining in a real discussion here. And that we allow for the difficulties of the written Internet medium we enjoy.

(Just skimming, it was tantalizing trying to absorb quickly what I could from all the good commentary. I hadn't time to read carefully enough to comment on content of posts, let alone on the moment's controversies, so this is as far as I wanted to go...)

Belgian

(10/12/2003; 14:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110292)

silvercollector 110263 :More paper gold market(s) is more Unfree Gold (containment). More Physical Gold Market(s) is closer to Free Gold.

Remarx 110264 : It is M. Kosares who decides on what can or cannot. I wish to behave as an educated guest and am supposed not to offend other guests in the host's home. I want to stick to that principle. Amen Bro.

steady 110265 : Your message is understood and please do remain "in the mood" for Gold !

Cor Tauri 110273 : A Free Gold Market is a market that is in FREE competition with all currencies. The freedom of choice for ALL to hold Gold or currency as the most trusted store of one's wealth. Be it for temporary storage or for transfer to the next generation(s).

The ECB's mark to market principle is the cleariest sign that the euro-architects have a Free Gold Market in mind !
Simply because there never will be a perfect currency that answers the definition of wealth.

We patiently wait and see if, when and how a Free Gold Market is going to work out and what will eventually be the extend of Gold's revaluation.

Analyse for yourself how unfree your different paper holdings are and compare this with the holding of Physical Gold in Possession into the future. Or how free or unfree is a bird in his cage ?

Robert 110278 : Real freedom does exist when each and everyone can choose his own definition of what represents wealth for him/her. A very personal evolving process.
I wish to consolidate the fruits of my labor into my choice of Gold wealth and wish this tangible to become fully Free.
I have a house and accept that I'm NOT the full owner of this (taxed) property. On all other paper holdings, I do accept the cascading taxes and agree to comply with all regulations. The same story for land, food, water, air etc...I am NOT owning these tangibles and can therefore not be considered as the expression of my personal wealth. All these things do belong, for a certain fraction of it, to the collectivity, through taxes.

But when I give you one ounce of bullion, hand to hand, you received a piece of unencumbered wealth that lasts for ever. Have you another example that is complying with this criterium of... consolidated wealth, unencumbered and for ever ?

The capacity to produce food, leads to the possibility to "consolidate" this food-wealth into the ultimate form of transferable Gold-wealth. If and when this could happen again in a totally Free and MODERN Gold market...it would be a wonderfull world.

But, alas...all our efforts are condemned to depreciate/detoriate in value as time goes by. This leads us to the obligation to perpetual production of more of the same depreciating stuff as to not empoverish when the production (savings) is declining.

Gold should also be in the capacity of expressing one's Freedom. The bird's cage should remain "open" !

The biggest achievement (merits) of the Gold Advocacy on the www-net is the general public's discovery of how "Unfree" Gold (the gold market) really is (has been) !!! Fantastic !
We are in the process of realizing that we have been living in a (golden) cage. One day w'll fly away and leave unfreedom for yesterday...(Randy Crawford song)

Cavan Man

(10/12/2003; 15:05:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110293)

China/AU

More domestic investors are interested in tapping into the gold market, with more than 20 percent of stock investors willing to transfer part of their funds to the gold market, according to a questionnaire of investors in ten Chinese cities, sina.com.cn reported yesterday.

Gold has boasted a high profile in China, with over 70 percent of respondents favoring gold, according to the questionnaire.

More than 20 percent of investors are ready to transfer part of their funds to the gold market, and 7.5 million stock investors will invest in gold in the near future, said a questionnaire analyst.

If each stock investor puts 14,000 to 26,000 yuan (US$1,686 - US$3,132) into the gold market, a total of 100-190 billion yuan is expected to be injected into the gold market, the analyst said.

Housing properties, cars and education are the top three options that people are willing to spend their extra money on, followed by investing in stocks, collection and bullion, the questionnaire indicated.

Wendy Zhang/ Shanghai Daily news

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

R Powell

(10/12/2003; 15:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110294)

Silver COT report

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm For the time period ending 10/7/03 the so-called commercials have been the buyers in both gold and silver. This is the second week straight that the commercials have been buyers.

In silver, the commercials bought roughly 22,000 contracts which the large speculative players sold but, once again, the small specs barely flinched. These small players now hold 38.5% of the long positions. They are slowly accumulating and do not sell on the downtrends nor do they sell much for profits when the POS rises. As the percentage held by this group increases, there is less market share for the commercials and large funds to buy/sell and the sell/buy back and forth between themselves. During the week this report covers they traded 22,000 contracts while the small class players barely changed their position. Who are these guys?

For those who believe the myth that the commercials always win in this casino game, the monthly WASDE report of last Friday found the commercials on the wrong side of many markets. They got hammered in corn, beans, and cotton among others. Imho with gold and silver, their position is likewise no indicator of where the market may go.

P.S. Is fifteen deleted posts for one day a record? I'm sorry some were mine.

silvercollector

(10/12/2003; 15:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110295)

Druid

http://www.peakoil.netThe 2003 version is here.........

Belgian

(10/12/2003; 15:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110296)

@ge

I think the message today is a MUCH stronger one than the one you are describing :

Gold is NOT in another one of those repeated "bull-markets" ...but in the process of dramatic changes !!!

Not Gold, the usual yellow "speculative" metal,... but the pregnancy of Gold as a renewed Concept. BBBBBBiiiiigggggg difference, Sir !

If Gold was NOT pregnant of a renewed concept, no efforts would be wasted in perpetual abortion, killing of the foetus, by the general media and their collusive bosses.

Bulls can easely be stopped and reversed by the financial fraternity. A renewed, *growing* concept is much more difficult to stop or even curbing/bending it.

Gold (POG) did NOT start a "bull-move" in sept '99 with the WAG-bomb !!! Gold started to live ...was concepted and will continue to grow to mature, adolescent Freedom.

We simply don't believe that the new Gold-child is growing up, because we can't accept that father-dollar is aging, weakening and will die in its capacity of reserve-currency (pro-creation).

I've often, seriously questioned myself if I hadn't landed into beate wishfull Gold-thinking ! The answer, NO I haven't, is getting clearer by the day, when listening to the evolving multiple news-events...from a safer and safer distance.

We have been taking our prosperity for granted, much too long now ! All our quasi properties/merits are in a gigantic process of rapidly increasing, stealth and structural/systemic, *erosion* ! All paper worths, interest rates, direct/indirect taxes,...etc.

Worse,...I don't see any *lasting* solution (but Gold) for what is happening now. Emphasis on lasting solution !!!

Worse,...it is the financial fraternity's duty to keep on organising, fake financial orgasms as to create the perception of further well being !!! An act of desperation in my studentical opinion.

It's getting late, ge...tommorrow it is another day. Nighty nighty.

Druid

(10/12/2003; 16:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110297)

cockerel1 (10/12/03; 12:09:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 110283)

"by Merrill Jenkins, 1919-1979, Monetary Realist"

Druid: Cockerel1, I did a Google query on Merrill Jenkins some two hours ago and have not stopped reading. Thanks.

Robert

(10/12/2003; 16:19:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110298)

a question re free gold

I understand that the ownership of gold bullion was illegal in the US since the 1930's. If I remember correctly, that changed under president Carter in the early 1970's presumably in response to the closure of the gold window by Nixon in 1971. Does anybody remember what were precisely the reasons to reallow gold ownership for American citizens? I would like to understand what happened at that time. Was that decision reached against the opposition of the Fed and the treasury? If not, could that event be viewed as the first step on the long journey to free gold?

Paper Avalanche

(10/12/2003; 17:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110299)

How does one manage the collapse of the world's reserve currency?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EJ10Dh01.htmlInteresting read.

Snip:

"Japan: The rapid run on dollar assets
By Hussain Khan

TOKYO - With the Nikkei stock average currently flirting with 11,000, up about 45 percent from its post-bubble 13-year low of 7,607.88 in April, it is starting to appear that a run on US dollar assets could well be causing the rise in Japanese stock markets.

The yen has surged through the psychological barrier of 110:US$1, creating a sense of crisis as the run on dollar assets gains momentum. Japanese authorities are cautious about intervening heavily before Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reaches an understanding on the currency in his meeting with US President George W Bush on October 17-18 in Tokyo.

According to one estimate, by Kyoto University Economics Professor Takamitsu Sawa, foreign investors have markedly improved the fundamentals of the Japanese economy by turning into huge net buyers of more than US$1.7 trillion in Japanese equities and assets and, by running away from their dollar positions, are thus generating a self-feeding cycle of further selling dollar assets and pushing up the Japanese markets even more.

The flight of global investors from the dollar has serious implications, not only for the health of markets such as Japan's, but because of the peril to the US economy and thus the global economy as well, for which the United States has acted as economic engine and importer of last the resort. The US must take in $55 billion per day in investment in government paper and securities to fund the enormous deficits in its fiscal budget and its current account, the total balance of goods and services it trades with other countries. The current account deficit is expected to hit more than $540 billion in 2003, with the fiscal deficit trending towards $600 billion when off-budget liabilities are factored in.

However, since the events of September 11, 2001, fiscal and military decisions by the administration of President George W Bush have raised concerns (see The end of American economic supremacy?, Sep 19) by both US fund managers and individual investors about the long-term health of the American economy. By diverting their investments outside the United States, these fund managers are corroborating a bleak long-term view of declining US economic strength, gradually running away from dollar assets to buy other assets or currencies like the euro, the yen and the yuan."

PA

Chris Powell

(10/12/2003; 18:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110300)

Gold world stars to attend GATA reception in New Orleans

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1720GATA reception in New Orleans to include Allianz
Dresdner's Frank Veneroso, Sprott Asset Management's
John Embry, and Durban Roodeport Deep CEO Mark
Wellesley-Wood.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

21mabry

(10/12/2003; 19:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110301)

(No Subject)

There is a good rountable discussion called silver bulls forcast on the sharfin link page to this site.James Turk and Jim Rogers and Dave Morgan are among the guest.21

Druid

(10/12/2003; 19:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110302)

silvercollector (10/12/03; 15:40:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110295)

Druid: Se--or Plata, muchas gracias por darme mas informacion para leer de aciete.

Mr. Silver, many thanks for giving more information to read about oil.

21mabry

(10/12/2003; 19:19:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110303)

(No Subject)

About a year and a half ago I wandered into my friends grandfathers coin shop and bought a 100 ounce bar of silver.About a year before that I had sold some silver to pay to live for awhile in New York city.I am not sorry about selling that silver New york was a great experience,but after losses in the stock market I went into the shop and bought silver again.Then a short time latter I bought my first computer and found this site.I consider this computer like new york an excellent experience.Without this computer and the net I would never have found this site.As a result I have been buying PMs since then and yes I have bought paper gold and silver too.I have to think someone was trying to tell me something a year and a half ago when out of the blue I bought that silver and found this site.Time will tell if that voice in my head was right.21

Liberty Head

(10/12/2003; 19:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110304)

RE: Robert msg 110298

http://www.libertyhaven.com/regulationandpropertyrights/bankingmoneyorfinance/goldstandard/goldlegal.html
snippit:
During this era of continued inflation the government was severing any remaining legal ties to gold. The final tie was cut on August 15, 1971, when the "gold window" was closed to foreigners. After that date, not even foreign central banks could convert their dollar holdings to gold. The American dollar was nothing but irredeemable fiat money.

Still a Money Monopoly
The legalization of gold ownership today does not restore gold as a medium of exchange. As a matter of fact, the willingness of the state to once again permit gold ownership is precisely because the state no longer views gold as a threat to its money monopoly.

-----------

Here is a good article publihed in The Freeman in 1975

Best Wishes

Great Albino Bat

(10/12/2003; 19:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110305)

Paper Avalanche: $55 billion a DAY seems a bit too much...

Asia Times says: "The US must take in $55 billion per day in investment in government paper and securities to fund the enormous deficits in its fiscal budget and its current account,

Paper Avalanche: The Asia Times has I think, made a mistake, since $55 billion a day, times 365 days in a year makes for something over $20 Trillion with a T.

U.S. problems are big, but not that big - yet, anyway.

Seems like a curiously big error in calculations, somewhere.

The GAB

Liberty Head

(10/12/2003; 20:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110306)

More Info For Robert

http://www.libertyhaven.com/theoreticalorphilosophicalissues/austrianeconomics/currency.html
The Liberty Haven website has a great wealth of easy to access articles.

snippit:

As formalized at Bretton Woods in 1944, the gold-exchange standard became still more attenuated. The other participating countries agreed only to keep their currencies pegged to the American dollar; the dollar alone was convertible into gold. But even then, dollars were not, as formerly, convertible by anybody who held them, but only by foreign central banks.

The effect of this relaxation of discipline, combined with the growth of the Keynesian ideology, was increasing and almost universal inflation. The American monetary managers, under successive Administrations did not seem to have the slightest realization of the weight of responsibility they had assumed in agreeing to make the dollar the anchor currency for the world. They continued to inflate until, when other countries finally became more importunate in their demand for actual gold, President Nixon officially suspended gold payments on August 15, 1971.
--------------

In an effort to answer one of your questions, I found this awesome Liberty Haven website.

Thanks Robert

Dollar Bill

(10/12/2003; 20:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110308)

*>*.........+

Sir Robert,
Glad you are here.
You said;
"The fallacy is that if you are in possession of tangible monetary wealth, you can ignore what is happening in the real world."
I agree. However, the folks that frequent the forum are information vaccums. Not vaccum as in "empty" (not trying to start THAT conversation again!) But as in constantly taking in information about the real world.

"The fallacy consists in the belief that if you have gold, you will always be able to buy quality food, cheap energy, quality medical services, quality public education and live in a safe crime free neighbourhood - all basic ingredients of what I consider real wealth. Enough said."
Agreed again, but I wonder what the fate of an Argentine man who invested in gold a couple years ago is.
There are reasonable men who think we may go the Argentinian way.

Dollar Bill

(10/12/2003; 20:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110309)

(!_!)

Sir Remarx, economics drives mass migration.
Religious reasons do also.
Mexicans are moving into the US in tremendous numbers. They dont want to stay in Mexico and ........hmmm, would that be ok to say?

Dollar Bill

(10/12/2003; 21:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110311)

(No Subject)

Greetings Sir Remarx,
I just found this info. Putin made some noise about moving oil in Euro's, but this sheds some light on other factors involved.

"Putin is very much interested in changing the structure of OPEC and he cannot do that without the United States," said Alexander Rahr, an expert on Russia at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "He can only get a foothold for Russia in the Middle East with [U.S. help]. And, he wants to get contracts for the Russian oil industry in Iraq -- for this, too, he needs the United States."

Some analysts said that the statement appeared to be aimed at boosting Russia's global clout on the world stage. "Putin is trying to create a position for Russia as an independent player. But his aim is not to undermine relations [with the United States]. He just wants to boost Russia's position up from being a junior partner," said Dmitry Trenin, geopolitical analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog and an earlier architect of the Putin government's first economic plan, said debate is growing on a move to the euro as Russia mulls siding with the EU. "Such an idea is really possible," he said. "Why not? More than half of Russia's oil trade is with Europe. But there will be great opposition to this from the United States."

He said that while a switch would have no direct impact on the Russian economy, it would give a great boost to the euro zone.
But even Fedun could not help putting a political price tag on the move. "We are ready to move to the euro if the country will be included in a visa-free regime with Europe," he said.

Rahr agreed that the timing of the statement seemed calculated to extract political concessions from the EU. "It's a bargaining chip," he said.

Gavrilenkov suggested Putin was also angling for EU concessions on other issues discussed in Yekaterinburg, such as terms for Russia's WTO accession.

Robert

(10/12/2003; 21:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110312)

free gold

http://www.federalobserver.com/archive.php?aid=49
Quote: "The private ownership of gold is a privilege, not a right. Congress revoked the privilege of private ownership in 1933 and restored it in 1974. Congress could easily revoke the privilege again. In fact, at no time during this century has the US Government recognized the right of private gold ownership. The Trading With The Enemy Act, which President Roosevelt invoked in 1933 to restrict private gold transactions, remains law. The government could reactivate the machinery, which the Trading With The Enemy Act established, to implement gold confiscation."

Remarx

(10/12/2003; 21:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110314)

Thank You

Thanks. I will no longer raise the issue. (Bet the moderator is happy.)

Liberty Head

(10/12/2003; 23:07:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110315)

Re: Robert msg 110312 Free Gold

Congress is not the best source for understanding words meanings.
They are notoriously confused about who is the master and who is the servant, what is a right vs what is a privilege, etc. They usually have it exactly reverse of the truth.
While the gov't could reactivate it's machinery, so can we.

Best Wishes

Belgian

(10/13/2003; 01:10:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110316)

@ Dollar Bill

msg #110311 : An important one, qua insights.
Oil - euro - dollar, circling around Gold.
Deficits, trade flows, unemployment, pensions, demographics, geopolitical and personal interests, etc...causing the entanglement of intriging webs. Remember the Yukos-Sibneft intriges (not yet finalized) ! Have a look at the LT pricechart of Lukoil !
Russia is spotting an "opening"...an opportunity...synergies ! But will have to make choices (US-EMU) in order to succesfully capitalize on them. Things are really changing, aren't they.

In a late night, Belgian political debate on some fundamental economic problems, a socialist politician (old timer), mentioned the Belgian Gold sales again...it sounded AS IF HE WAS REGRETTING OF HAVING DONE SO ...?

The subject was about, how to balance (activa-passiva) the book-keeping (hiding) of rising deficits. I was thinking off selling Gold and leasing it back when it increases in price as a book-keeping maneuver ? The magic triangle of EMU's 12 (15) National banks > ECB > BIS !? WAG and mark to market. Goldminer's (allocated-?) forward sales of 3,000 tonnes.

Robert's question : After the confiscation of US citizen's Gold, the US$ found some relief for its Gold obligations and Americans had been supporting their dollar with the abandonment of their Gold. Once dollar expansion started to debauche during the period that Americans were not allowed to possess/accumulate bullion...Gold had to be released in the containing bird's cage. This worked out fine, because the planet agreed to stick to the de facto dollar standard and Gold was *percepted* as quasi free but was never going to be able of competing with the enormous (planned) dollar expansion and its benevolent general consequences, initially. Once there was evidence that the POG run of 1971 > 1980 (x 25) could be brought under control...dollar expansion was relatively sure it could go on with convenient general conscent.

NOW, this past is being questioned by the (euro) competitor and its possible allies (CBs).

Dollar Bill

(10/13/2003; 05:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110317)

*>*.........+

Sir Belgian,
First, good morning Sir Remarx ;)

Belgian, the first thing I woke up thinking was about the comment by the russians about tradeing oil for euro's in exchange for among other things..no visa travel.
Lots of implications there. Mass migration among them.

MK probably is already thinking along the lines of what
could......hmmm, Russians are way too, what would be the right word, independent? To line up to be the next state to lose itself in the coming nation of Euro states.
Dont you think?
That russian seat on the security council is too much to give up someday?

cockerel1

(10/13/2003; 08:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110318)

Re: Liberty Head

"Congress is not the best source for understanding words meanings.
They are notoriously confused about who is the master and who is the servant, what is a right vs what is a privilege, etc. They usually have it exactly reverse of the truth.
While the gov't could reactivate it's machinery, so can we."

Unfortunately too few people realize this, or even want to acknowledge it. Why?

In my opinion, one of the reasons is, our "civil servants" have destroyed the learning process. History, and all the steps it has taken us to get to where we are, are forgotten. No longer do the bureaucrats and servants want to be realized as such. They now exercise control by keeping the new generation ignorant. Once the "baby boomers" are through the life cycle, the metamorphosis will be complete. Those that are knowledgeable to what has happened will be too few to do anything about it.

Who was it that once said, "There is more than one way to win the war"?

Druid

(10/13/2003; 08:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110319)

Russian Credit Rating Improving

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnip:

October 8 � Bloomberg: "Russia's foreign-currency bond ratings were raised two levels to investment grade by Moody's�five years after the nation defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt. Moody's increased the ratings for Russia's Eurobonds to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade level, from Ba2, citing the government's progress in reducing debt and spending. It's the first time the country's foreign debt has been rated investment grade by either Moody's or Standard & Poor's� The country's 5 percent dollar bond due 2030, the most traded emerging-market Eurobond, gained 2.65 cents on the dollar to 97.7 cents, pushing the yield down to 6.88 percent� Five-year credit-default swaps for Russia, which pay out in the event of missed debt payments, fell to 175 basis points from 225 basis points yesterday and 425 at the start of the year�"

Bloomberg quoted a Goldman Sachs economist: "It is a big, big turn and is a reflection on the political stability, much better fiscal policy, and a degree of luck with the high oil prices." From Dow Jones, "The country's ratio of government debt to gross domestic product has fallen from nearly 100% to 33% as its economy has strengthened." Well, I would strongly argue that rising oil prices have nothing to do with "luck." Instead, energy prices are a prime incipient consequence of global reflation. The ruble this week traded to its highest level against the dollar since December 2001. The IMF today raised it forecast of Russia's 2003 growth rate to 6.25% (estimate was at 4% in April). "The mission found the macroeconomic situation had strengthened considerably."

Druid: Things are really looking up in Russia. Man, what a few choice comments can do to make an economic picture look so good.

Druid

(10/13/2003; 08:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110320)

Interesting Trend

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspOctober 10 � Financial Times: "Euro-denominated high-yield bond issuance rose 168 per cent to $7.3bn in the first nine months of 2003, according to Thomson Financial. This exceeded the 121 per cent rise in high-yield dollar bond volumes though at $98.6bn, the dollar market is far larger.

Druid: Interesting trend and differential in amounts.

silvercollector

(10/13/2003; 11:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110321)

Spot closes at 374.70, 3 bold legs up this afternoon....

....good job Mr. Spot!

Pan

(10/13/2003; 11:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110322)

!!! Austrian Minister of Finances has a 33% percentage Gold Mines In his private Share Account !!!

http://derstandard.at/standard.asp?id=1448726Because off a shareholdings scandal, the austrian minister of finances Karl-Heinz Grasser was forced to display on his homepage (german language), his private shareholdings. Please take a look *** 33% are GOLD Mines *** http://www.karlheinzgrasser.at/evo/web/khg/3660_DE.0 *** http://www.karlheinzgrasser.at/evo/web/khg/3662_DE.0 ***

The newspaper Der Standart has written a story! Link above! ***

The austrian minister of finance as a gold bug! ***

Perhabs that guy must know something we do not know yet? ***

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/13/2003; 12:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110323)

Page Update!

Gandalf the White

(10/13/2003; 13:07:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110324)

Energy Pie in the Sky ? -- OR is that the MOON ?

http://www.asi.org/adb/02/09/he3-intro.htmlEvaluate this one Sir Black Blade !
Think that the trip to the Moon is cost effective ?
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(10/13/2003; 13:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110325)

Thanks, Pan!

None o' that 5% crap for ol' Karl-Heinz, eh?

Notwithstanding last week's electoral events, I think I can here insert my earlier (original?) one-liner, in parody of Tricky D: "We're all Austrians now."

K-H, not much of a rich guy, from the looks of it? Just another Boomer (like us?), who needs to hit a long ball (Black Hawk, junior of juniors?) on his small savings to ever have a hope of retiring?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/13/2003; 13:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110326)

Build your financial base. BULLION at only one percent over our cost, FREE shipping on 25oz

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html

CoBra(too)

(10/13/2003; 13:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110327)

K-H. Grasser @ PAN

Thanks for the Standard story - I only read Die Presse, which has really improved since the advent of (the rather biased) Der Standard.

Isn't it pathetic that the opposition has no other arrows as to accuse the Austrian Finance Minister not to have disclosed a normal, diversied and speculative portfolio to parliament. Must be a lot of fun to be an Austrian politician.

Biggest position Black Hawk Mining near its high at .30 CDN -may have helped to bridge the almost total loss of Jo Wood, an internet games provider. Small position in Newmwont and Glencairn Gold.

Nice to see some "insiders" in the fiat game plan going gold too ... cb2

PS: In comparison to some known political culprits this is not even pea nuts ... Only NUTS!

Leigh

(10/13/2003; 14:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110328)

CoBra(too)

Hi, CoBra! If you're in the D.C. area soon, please give us a call (MK can give you the phone number)! We'd be glad to drive over to meet you and say hello if you have some spare time!

CoBra(too)

(10/13/2003; 14:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110329)

@ Leigh

Thanks, dear Leigh,

Unfortunately I'm only stopping over at the Dulles Airport end of Oct. on my way to New Orleans this time. Though, next year I'll make a mental note to stay a couple of days around. Got to see some friends there too, once in a while.

Again, thanks for the kind offer and enjoy the rest of your Columbus day - cb2

PS: The late action in Spot and Spike is quite telling ...

glennh10

(10/13/2003; 14:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110330)

Stock Buys From Insiders at 10-Year Low

http://www.newsday.com/business/local/newyork/ny-bzearn3491369oct12,0,3137809.storyThose "in the know" are bailing out.

It reminds me of the Austrian Finance Minister/gold bug.

I wonder how many Fed, IMF, World Bank and other banking/financial big shots are closet gold bugs. More than just a few, maybe?

Sundeck

(10/13/2003; 15:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110331)

Sir Gandalf #110324 - Energy Pie in the Sky ? -- OR is that the MOON ?

If I may contribute to the great debate on energy solutions for the Earth (errr, the US)...

Alas, Sir Gandalf, I fear the mission of extracting helium-3 from the Moon's surface is akin to extracting gold from the Earth's seawater! ...perhaps even more futile!

Using the figures in your link to the Artemis Project, I calculate that there is only about 70 kg of helium-3 per square km of the Moon's seas (maria).

BUT we need 25 tonnes of H-3 to power the US for one year, implying that we need to ***fully extract*** all the H-3 from about 340 square km of the Moo's surface every year! Gadzeeks! Do you know how much heat that would require? ...and what energy source would be used to provide the heat? (No fossil fuels on da Moon. Perhaps a connecting crank with the Earth to get ORBITAL GRAVITATIONAL ENERGY.) And what about the infrastructure of such a plant!

Alas...alas...I fear it may be all too difficult.

Getting H-3 from the Moon's maria is like getting gold from the Earth's "maria"... or like milking the cow that jumped over the Moon, and didn't quite make it (does anyone recall that famous Larson cartoon?)

;-)

Sundeck

CoBra(too)

(10/13/2003; 15:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110332)

A few selected Headings by the "Privateer"

"Can't make a Living? Borrow!

"A Service Economy is NOT an Economy!"

Elsewhere I read that the US is now producing only 45% of the goods they consume. OK, the rest of the still productive world has so far "re-patriated" the earned dollars and converted them to US assets - some hard, some financial.

As real US assets are becoming more and more in short supply and only the former safest of all assets - US TSY Bonds - remain available, second thoughts are beginning to gain momentum.

Second thoughts about what it will mean to have the full credit and power of the US behind the payment promises - tomorrow. Second thoughts about the eventual means of repayment and second thoughts about repayment at all. And finally second thoughts in repayment at what - even relative value?

Most of the gold may again have left the vaults, as happened before in the infamous London Gold Pools. The country, overall has a debt burden of about 4 times its GDP - in good times. The current account deficit is approaching 6% - where as 5% was seen as a recipe for disaster, at least historically.

OK, why is the US still going ahead the path to destruction and creates new obligations by the Trillions? Indestructible? Just by means of military force? History is obliterated with countries following the same fallacy; History also never had a hegemonial fiat monetary system. A system which now seems combattened by contenders, which may prove to be "becoming" too big for the hegemon.

There's a limit to almost everything in this world. As there's a limit as to how much you can blow up the dollar "printing" p�ress. Commodity prices are stating reality. Just look at the CRB ... and then look at Gold and Silver!!!

A tightly wound coil as ever! Time's a running out for the Johnny/Janie's come lately pretty fast now - I presume, and what say you Dr. Watson? Uh?, Oh, go gold as fast you can afford ... Sherlock!

- And you don't even have to be S. Holmes, as the trail has brightly been illuminated by (A-)Other's.

Thanks for putting up with me - cb2

turkey hunter

(10/13/2003; 18:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110333)

Buba eyes 400-600 tonne gold sale in new pact-paper

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/10/13/rtr1107253.htmlsnip......

Boersen Zeitung said its sources assumed that a new agreement would increase gold sales by a maximum of 10-15 percent over the current one, which caps total sales at 2,000 tonnes over the five-year life of the agreement, or about 400 tonnes per year.........

glennh10

(10/13/2003; 18:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110334)

Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US

http://www.money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/10/10/cnoil10.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2003/10/10/ixfrontcity.html"to forge closer ties with the European Union...

"The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading to a fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and sending Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of greenbacks into euro notes."

"A switch to euro invoicing...could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is already under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest natural gas reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi Arabia."

On another note, as far as the Bundesbank selling gold, is it actual metal, or are they "balancing their accounting" for gold that has already been leased into the market? Also, if it's metal, there's a buyer. Asia, perhaps?

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 19:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110335)

turkey hunter

Germany is a fiscal nightmare in a demographic deathgrip. Just re-read "To Build a Fire" by Jack London. Germany must build its' own survival blaze and if it employs gold as tinder (for that is what the small allocation represents) it will do so at much higer prices. The Germans are not US sychophants like the English pols. Their metal wil fetch at higher prices.

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 19:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110336)

turkey hunter

Robert

(10/13/2003; 19:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110337)

The right to own gold

was declared illegal by president Roosevelt in 1933. In 1974, under president Ford, congress did not change the famous "Trading with the enemy act" introduced by Roosevelt. That law is still in effect implying that US citizens still do not have the right to own gold. What congress did in 1974 instead was to introduce the "priviledge" for private US citizens to HOLD (but not to own) gold in a legal way. At the same time, congress explicitely emphasized that the "Trading with the enemy act" remains in effect implying that the government can confiscate gold at any time at its own discretion. What that means in practice is that every gold held by the public is in fact only on loan from the government. When you give our host Mr Kosares a call telling him that you wish to "buy" 10 gold coins, you are in reality applying for a gold loan from the government. The $3900 (+- change) you are being asked to pay is strictly speaking not a payment, but a security deposit you make for the loan. The loan can be called in (=confiscated) at any time by the government (most likely only during times of economic emergency). The terms of the loan agreement are that you will not earn any interest on the security deposit you made. It is therefore an illusion to believe that when holding gold you are holding an asset which is "nobody's obligation". In fact, that golden asset represents an obligation from you to the government (since it is an asset on loan from the government). So there is no principal difference in the three asset classes stocks and bonds, real estate and gold. None of them can really be "owned" without obligation to or control by the government. If you own real estate, you are liable for property taxes to the local government. This makes sense since by holding that real property you actually gain a benefit (a shelter and a home). So the property tax on your house is in some sense a rent payment to the government. Gold on the other hand, since it is basically useless (there is no benefit gained from holding gold except for the aesthetic pleasure) is, by the same logic, not being taxed as property.

The question is how likely is it that the government will ever call in the gold. In my opinion, this is very unlikely to happen. However, we can not exclude that possibility. For that reason, I think everybody should not only keep the gold safely, but more importantly, one should also keep the purchase receipts in good storage. If the gold is ever recalled, you will be reimbursed for your purchase price only if you have a receipt. In addition, if that receipt is for a substantial sum, you should also keep bank statements and tax returns in the safe deposit box in order to prove to the government that the gold was not obtained as a result of "money laundering" (=tax evasion). Remember, when dealing with the IRS, the usual rule "innocent unless proven guilty" does not hold. Instead, the IRS rule is "guilty unless proven innocent".

Personally, I am not afraid of gold confiscation. What I am afraid of is the future disappearence of cash money. Within the next ten years, we will see a gradual phasing out of cash. Instead, all money will be only electronic. Already today, more than 90% of all the money exists only in electronic form. Cash will be eventually replaced by a universal card containing a small computer capable of storing huge amounts of data. That card will serve as a credit card as well as cash storage (=electronic bits in computer memory). That revolution of banking is inevitable. The continued progress in data storage technology will eventually lead to total loss of financial privacy (guranteed today by cash money). With the gradual withdrawal of cash money from the economy (perhaps in order to fight terrorism and money laundering), every citizen will have one universal card containing all his personal data, bank accounts and financial history of his life. The government will have the ability to access that information at any time. Precious metal dealers would be required to withhold the capital gain tax on the sale of your gold coins. That capital gain tax could be quite steep. Already today the capital gain tax on precious metals is higher than on stock and bonds.

For the silver bugs among us: I think one advantage of silver in comparison to gold is that we have a right to own silver, but we do not have a right to own gold. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Warren Buffett decided in 1997 to acquire a substantial amount of physical silver instead of buying physical gold.

cyberbat

(10/13/2003; 19:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110338)

New hope for gold

Some months ago I was censord on this site because I quoted a portion of a speech by the great Abraham Lincoln.Although, it was his first inaugural speech in 1861.
But today, I come to this forum making a request of the participants. There is a new party forming and a petition to draft Con. Ron Paul for president. That site has a mission statement of wanting "Gold money & equal tax rates."
Some of you may find it very interesting if you love freedom and gold like I do. www.AFR.org/mission.html
Thanks for your time. No more quotes by american heroes.
Cyberbat

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 19:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110339)

Right to own gold......?

Robert, what's this "we" business; got a mouse in your pocket eh? I have a right to own gold. It is my inalienable right. As long as I have it in my possession, it is my right and I am right in possessing it. It's a big, beautiful world my friend. Many, many nations will give one that RIGHT.

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 19:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110340)

For the chicken littles out there......

An increase of 10-15% in German allocation doesn't begin to cover the gold that is not coming out of the ground this year because it has already been mined, sold and not REPLACED. As an aside; recal that a percentage of a small number remains a SMALL number.

Kilo

(10/13/2003; 19:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110341)

Robert

As long as "electronic" blips within the banking system are fallible, unreliable, and untrustworthy, there will be cash. And as long as cash remains unbacked fiat (fallible unreliable, and untrustworthy over the long term) there will be gold and those who hold gold in preferrence to other forms of "money", "wealth", "freedom", et al.

I might have to disagree with your thoughts on "ownership" of silver vs. gold also. As long as the government is "making the rules", there will be absolutely NOTHING to prevent them from changing those rules any time they please.

Whether government(s) ever again attempt a confiscation of gold (and/or silver) is subject to much debate. But I think the folly of even attempting such in this day and age would soon become apparent. You can fool some of the people etc. etc....... But I don't believe the true gold advocates are buying the B.S.

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 19:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110342)

Gold Confiscation Bogeyman

70 + years ago one needed a bit of planning and likely an ocean going vessel to find safe haven for one's RIGHTful and personal property. Today, one needs a charter jet and two pilots for a trip across the pond; surely worth the fare of three or four Krugerands (1 OZ).

glennh10

(10/13/2003; 19:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110343)

Re: Gold Ownership

Between 1933 and 1974, many people in the U.S. owned gold. I don't believe any gov't has ever successfully prevented it - including our land of liberty. Whether I own gold or not has nothing at all to do with a "privilege", whether granted or denied.

Cheers.

Druid

(10/13/2003; 20:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110344)

Robert (10/13/03; 19:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110337)

Executive Order 11825--Revocation of Executive orders pertaining to the regulation of the acquisition of, holding of, or other transactions in gold

Source: The provisions of Executive Order 11825 of Dec. 31, 1974, appear at 40 FR 1003, 3 CFR, 1971-1975 Comp., p. 929, unless otherwise noted.

By virtue of the authority vested in me by section 1 of the Act of August 8, 1950, 64 Stat. 419, and section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended (12 U.S.C. 95a), and as President of the United States, and in view of the provisions of section 3 of Public Law 93-110, 87 Stat. 352, as amended by section 2 of Public Law 93-373, 88 Stat. 445, it is ordered as follows:

Section 1. Executive Order No. 6260 of August 28, 1933, as amended by Executive Order No. 6359 of October 25, 1933, Executive Order No. 6556 of January 12, 1934, Executive Order No. 6560 of January 15, 1934, Executive Order No. 10896 of November 29, 1960, Executive Order No. 10905 of January 14, 1961, and Executive Order No. 11037 of July 20, 1962; the fifth and sixth paragraphs of Executive Order No. 6073, March 10, 1933; sections 3 and 4 of Executive Order No. 6359 of October 25, 1933; and paragraph 2(d) of Executive Order No. 10289 of September 17, 1951, are hereby revoked.

Sec. 2. The revocation, in whole or in part, of such prior Executive orders relating to regulation on the acquisition of, holding of, or other transactions in gold shall not affect any act completed, or any right accruing or accrued, or any suit or proceeding finished or started in any civil or criminal cause prior to the revocation, but all such liabilities, penalties, and forfeitures under the Executive orders shall continue and may be enforced in the same manner as if the revocation had not been made.

This order shall become effective on December 31, 1974.

Druid: One Branch.

Robert

(10/13/2003; 20:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110345)

cavan man: "I have a right to own gold"

As long as you do not revoke your citizenship, the laws enacted by the US congress do apply to you regardless where you live. Even if you decide to live and work let's say in China, you are still obligated to pay income and capital gain taxes to the US government. By being born in the US, you are automatically property of the US government. (This is not a joke).

Druid

(10/13/2003; 20:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110346)

Robert (10/13/03; 19:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110337)

December 9, 1974 - Rather than continue an endless and periodic devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold, decision was made to allow the price of gold to seek its own level in a free market. By this date, gold certificates had been issued by the Treasury to the Federal Reserve against all of the gold owned by the Treasury.
December 31, 1974 - The ban on private ownership and trading of gold by U.S. citizens was ended (Public Law 93-373).

In connection with the lifting of the ban on private ownership of and trading in gold by U.S. citizens, the Treasury announced it would sell gold at auction. In the January-June 1975 time period, the auctioned gold sold at roughly $165.00 per fine ounce.

Druid: Public Law is issued by Congress. Executive Orders are issued by the President. "The ban on private ownership" suggest to me that you can "own" something.

Robert

(10/13/2003; 20:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110347)

Druid: Thanks for the quote. Please

do me a favor and comment on the reference I quoted in my message #110312. I am eager to hear what your opinion is.

Cavan Man

(10/13/2003; 21:04:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110348)

Robert

Whatever. I CHOOSE FREEDOM (at least the largest portion I can find.)!

Black Blade

(10/13/2003; 21:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110349)

Gandy - The Artemis Project

http://www.asi.org/adb/02/09/he3-intro.html
Interesting but I wouldn't be making any investments in this project quite yet. ;-)

Sorry for being late in getting back to you on this. It's been hectic this last week and weekend and had to workout for a martial arts competition (actually work out with some very experienced visitors from the west coast - quite sore too). The rest of the week will be much the same. Still quite a learning experience.

Notice the rapid recovery in gold in the late trade today? It was light trade in all the markets due to a couple of nations having closed markets for holidays and the US trading on such light volume - especially the equities market (the bond market was closed and therefore could not gauge the money flows). Someone (deep pockets) or some funds took charge in late trade before testing the $368 level - perhaps "front running" the expected rise as the physical market really picks up with the approach of Diwali on the 28th. With little economic data until Thursday this could be a very volatile period as the focus will be mainly on "earnings season" (especially lowered consensus earnings that are really bogus as the "expectations" bar has been lowered so much). It looks as if the bubble is reinflating for the Lemmings and we have never really had the "capitulation" that so-called "expert" economists had said was necessary.

- Black Blade

Liberty Head

(10/13/2003; 21:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110350)

Past Confiscation vs Future Confiscation

When gold was confiscated in 1933 the situation was quite different from our current situation. Prior to 1933, gold was commonly used and viewed as money. New laws prohibited the use of gold as money. Initially folks could still hold gold but they could not use it as money. It wasn't too difficult to persuade folks to exchange their gold for the new paper money. Folks beleived these laws would help gov't end the recession. Gold had lost value in their eyes.
A short time later, gold was then made illegal to own, though the penalties were mild and the risk of getting caught were low as long as you didn't attempt to use it as money. In desparate times, folks overwhelmingly wanted money. Voluntary compliance was high. The gov't did not need to send out thousands of armed thugs to knock down doors in the early morning.

Our current situation is quite different. While it is again legal to own gold, it is not commonly used as money. It is commonly used as insurance against inflation and and failed fiat policy. It won't be so easy to get voluntary compliance under the circumstances we are likely to soon see. Folks will see gold as gaining in value. For the gov't, forced compliance will be an expensive, high risk/low yield adventure.
Flight, fighting and fraud will rise dramatically. There will be many superior alternatives to handing your gold over to the gov't.

Aristotle

(10/13/2003; 22:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110351)

Liberty Head

In giving your background of the 1933 Gold confiscation you might also do well to point out how bank runs were rampant and the time, threatening to collapse the nation's whole financial system.

One surefire way to eliminate chronic bank runs is to eliminate the convertibility of the monetary unit at the teller's window for the fractionally available asset which is through the nature of banking shown WHEN TESTED to be nortoriously in shortage against outstanding claims.

Gold. Own you some, because you CAN.--- Aristotle

Waverider

(10/13/2003; 23:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110352)

ECB: Pricing Oil in Euros Sensible

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/14/041.htmlThe Moscow Times, Oct.14, 2003

"European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said Monday that it might make sense for Russia to sell oil in euros to certain EU customers, entering a debate sparked last week that has big implications for currency markets...Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia and the world's top gas exporter. A switch would be a powerful symbolic victory for the euro and might accelerate its growing role as an international reserve currency to challenge the dominance of the dollar. Analysts say such a move could prompt other oil exporters mulling a switch to follow Russia's lead. Iran, the world's No. 5 exporter, is openly considering a move to the euro and there is growing debate in Saudi Arabia on the issue. A move by oil exporters to the euro could spark massive inflation in the United States, economists say.

In a report on Friday, Britain's Daily Telegraph took the talk prompted by Putin's statement further, saying Schr�der had actually "secured" an agreement with Putin on making the switch. But a spokesman for the German government, when contacted by telephone, said he was unaware that such a deal had been reached."

Liberty Head

(10/13/2003; 23:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110353)

The Cashless Scenario

Ari,
Thanks for mentioning the banking crises more specifically. It is an important part of building a more convincing argument.
-------------
Cashless

First, I will say, "laws" do not always recognize "rights". They are two distinct concepts with seperate origins. They may or may not overlap. Again, don't look to Congress for clarity here.
Furthermore, we the people created Congress and we the people can return Congress to the ether from which it came.
Heck, Congress doesn't even need our help. It can destroy itself.
While Congress can make laws, it cannot produce a thing. Without producing things, Congress is a no-thing. In that sense, gov't is self-limiting. The bigger it gets, the smaller our product becomes.
The implementation of a cashless society would only hasten the demise of the new Empire. The demand for honest money would shift into overdrive. Black market exchange would become commonplace. Our gov't won't be able to build and staff enough prisons or find enough thugs to do the dirty work against it's own citizens.
It appears more folks are getting wise to the big gov't con game. Hopefully we can have a civil transition. Civil or otherwise, gold and silver are the preferred candidates for honest money.

Best Wishes

Aristotle

(10/13/2003; 23:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110354)

A generally related item (basically re-chewing old cabbage)

During the usual times when it wasn't so vividly perceived by the masses that outstanding claims "outweighed" the tangible deposits, can you imagine what effect that general condition had upon the per unit purchasing power?

To say "Gold is money" is to give bankers full licence to treat it like money, thus throwing open the door to lost purchasing power of the metal and giving rise to ambiguous notions of OWNERSHIP.

The reason to pursue the concept and cement in our minds the understanding of Gold = wealth is to aid in putting to rest the misguided pursuits promoting its use as Money (actually, toward that end it can never be more than Currency) among the folks who aren't content to simply let Gold be Gold. Soooooo.... call it Wealth if you must call it something (and indeed you should call it that!) but DON'T call it money unless you're willing to retract your statements if ever wisdom visits you like puberty some fine day.

Gold. Discover you the Nature of Things. A beautiful quest if ever there was one. --- Aristotle

Liberty Head

(10/14/2003; 00:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110355)

(No Subject)

Ari,
Thank you once again. Even the best wine can benifit from some careful filtration. :-)

The money of which you speak is not honest money, however lest I must go through a second puberty this late in life, I will acknowledge "wealth" as a superior term for the concept.

Soooo call it chewing old cabbage if you must call it something, but don't call it cole slaw.:-)

Best wishes

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 01:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110356)

Lady Waverider, surfing the right "wave" with msg#110352 !!!

Wakie wakie, dearest forumers...
CB-goldreserves are WORTH MUCH MORE than the percepted paper-price of a ridiculous amount of 375 paper-dollars for one Physical ounce of Gold that is resting in safe (or less safe) vaults !!!

Explain...

What an enormous "powerfull" message would it be, if and when...some (400-500 tonnes) German goldreserve would be offered for Russian energy (oil-gas)...and the exchange-swap of goldreserves (Germany > Russia) priced in euro !

Tree flies in one (symbolic)(homeopathic) clap : Energy and Gold and euro *** ASSOCIATED *** with each other !!!

Ding Dong, dear forumers....DING DONG !!!

At the same time, Iran repeats the already known message of oil for euro, whilst "accepting" (!!!) the Nobel Price.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia announcing that there will be "elections" !!!

At the same time, the ECB giving some strong signals that it wishes an orderly dollar-retreat against a "STABLE" euro !!! Emphasis on STABLE wich is the biggest fundamental of the euro-concept. Not like a dollar (in a dollar-system) where the floating means nothing else than " � la carte "...for the convenience of the US only.

Indeed Waverider, as in the article you posted..." A SYMBOLIC VICTORY FOR THE EURO " !!!

M. Albright was in the Netherlands, yesterday. She had some statements on US'(Israel) > ME policies. She is aware of the pressures that are building against dollar-action.
The occupation of Iraq was (is) the biggest mistake, the dollar ever made...had to make.(B.'s interpretations)

What "if" the homeopatic amount of German Gold to be transferred to Russian vaults, is Gold that is located, stored, "blocked" in US-vaults...!!!-??? Pooh, pooh.

If CBs are doing (have been doing) stupid things...it was (is) that those CBs were forced to do so?... or worse...wanted to do things, purposely, that seem so obviously stupid...at first sight for the general public.
Not all CBs are stupid all the time !!!

Ding Dong...

DummyANI

(10/14/2003; 02:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110357)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 02:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110358)

THE BIG GUNS.....

This morning at CNBC-Europ, the one and only JIM ROGERS !
He surely made my day with high quality info-tainment.

What was his message : The US$ is a disaster AND THE EURO WILL BREAK UP...THE EURO SYSTEM IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT...EUROLAND WILL DESINTIGRATE !!!

The euro-system is NOT an alternative for the dollar-system, according to Jim, proud father of a 17 month old daughter and still a Soros buddy .

Jim's resources fund is doing OK ...but,...BUT...Jim was deafhening quiet on GOLD !!!
Jim is a non-conventional, controversial, guru-like adventurer. That's the reason why I'm appreciating him and symphatise strongly with him...
But Jim is NOT the type of guy that really fits into the A.A. financial establishment and his appearence with dramatic euro-pessimism, is therefore the more remarkable.

I find it all very fascinating. Especially when the contradictions (paradoxes) are piling up...dollar disaster and euro desintegration...Wawwwwww... IS THERE SOME GOLD LEFT...

Aristotle

(10/14/2003; 03:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110359)

Liberty Head (and ALL) on the topic of honest money

To offer up the culmination of a long inquiry into the nature of money from the humblest beginnings, two things come immediately to the fore.

1.) An understanding of money -- Form and Function -- requires *REQUIRES* an understanding of banking. This, to the extent that a person can't hope to claim a mastery of the monetary phenomenon that exceeds his or her mastery of banking as a System of Practices.

2.) Money is more about the Rule of Law than anything else.

Loooooonnnnng trudging will eventually root out even the most entrenched preconceived notions about Gold in all of this. In the end, we're left with this unobstructed view of the horizon: Banking institutionalizes the accounting of Money; Rule of Law provides the vitality of contracts (wages, loans, purchase orders) which, forming an interconnected network of settlements and expectations of settlements, gives rise to (and, at the same time, gives insight into) the Value that a society engenders in its monetary unit.

The role of Gold in the whole affair can be seen naturally as a passing phase in which the universal barter agent of Gold lumps evolved into standard Gold currency serving furthermore as a catalyst helping the Monetary phenomenon to set up and gel as a pure numerical system.

The problem with Gold's low bartering/exchange/market/wealth value today is that it hasn't yet been set free again to behave a pure Property. It remains encumbered in a certain element of the banking system as a token behind an artificial valuation established by derivatives.

As I tend to characterize it, it would seem that the Dollar-brand prototype of Money was never fully and fairly allowed to "gel" under standard Rule of Law within an uncoerced marketplace. As a result, the risk today is that the Dollar would collapse in a heap like so much premature quiche if LOW PRICED Gold were removed (i.e., becomes high priced Gold) as the ongoing stabilizing agent in the dollar's ongoing attempt at earning its own monetary wings.

The euro is trying not to make that mistake. It wants the marketplace to form a stable network of pricing and contracts without false pretenses with respect to Gold. If it succeeds, it will be the world's first fully fledged Money -- in the most Proper use of the word!

The euro could in fact be called honest money, if you like. That is, as honest and as trustworthy as the Rule of Law that stands in the background to enforce contracts.

But as we know, Rule of Law today is not one and the same predicable Rule of Law tomorrow. It blows around a bit due to political will. Therefore, we'll always want honest Gold property used as our core Wealth Savings. We'll own it to compensate for our human inabilities to provide ourselves with a PERFECT Money.

In other words, because we have to settle for using, at BEST, a system of honest money which is always humanly flawed, we need Gold to return to its ANCIENT job description as perfect property. The kind of stuff that can be OWNED, not "as money," but rather, OWNED....... (wait for it......).... UNAMBIGUOUSLY!!!!

I hope this doesn't make anyone choke on their breakfast!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 03:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110360)

One more amusing detail....

Jim Rogers says it is OK to invest in many places as Angola, Mozambique and alikes...Only one place (for investment) must be avoided...IRAN !!!
Is this an investment advise or a message ?

This coincides with the recent statement of an "Iranian opposition movement" (humhumm), that Iran has a second nuclear plant well hidden.

In other words...The geopolitical spin must still be seen as
as a hidden struggle between euro and dollar blocks. And that's how these (political)postings are indirectly Gold-related, through the currency struggles. Wanted to make this clear, once again.

Conclusion : Sympahatico Jim was mobilized for some biased messages. No problemas.

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 03:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110361)

Ari.....AAAAARIIIIII.....

THIS IS ONE OF YOUR GREATESTS POSTINGS I HAD THE HONOR OF READING !!!

I am speechless and saw the "unobstructed horizon " !

THANK YOU SIR !

Aristotle

(10/14/2003; 03:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110362)

Thank you, Belgian.

As soon as my mental search turned up "engenders" as precisely the right word I was looking for for use at that early stage (4th paragraph?) I kinda felt I had clear sailing all the way home. Thanks for the warm welcome at harbor.

Gold. Seeing is believing. --- Ari

Cavan Man

(10/14/2003; 06:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110363)

China's opinion on EURO Zone

EU viewed by China as world power to rival US
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels
(Filed: 14/10/2003)

The European Union is the world's rising superpower, poised to overtake both America and Japan as the biggest trade and investment force in China, according to a strategic policy paper published by Beijing yesterday.

The Chinese government said the EU was transforming the global landscape with its successful currency launch and strides towards a joint foreign policy, defence, and judicial union.

Describing EU integration as "irreversible", Beijing marvelled at Europe's 25-35 per cent share of the global economy and its projected 450 million population after expanding into the former communist bloc next year.

The white paper follows a flurry of Sino-EU ventures, including the Galileo global satellite system, described as a direct challenge to the American GPS monopoly in space.

The two sides are also working together on nuclear research.

France and Germany have been pushing hardest for closer ties with China, hoping to cash in on a lucrative market but also to develop a strategic alliance as a counterweight to American power after the diplomatic trauma of the Iraq war.

Last June, the French defence minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, proposed sharing sensitive military technology with Beijing. She called for a softening of the arms embargo imposed on the country after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

The Chinese already have the world's second biggest defence budget, �40 million annually, but they have to rely on outdated weaponry bought from Russia and Ukraine.

Yesterday's white paper said the ever-closer military ties rendered the EU embargo a relic from the last century.

China's efforts to court Brussels reflect a new mood of respect for the EU across Asia. India is also rushing to upgrade its ties with Europe, recruiting extra staff to lobby EU officials and MEPs.

Robert

(10/14/2003; 06:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110364)

honest money

Any honest attempt to define money must take into account the problem of setting and collecting taxes. In a economy where 50% of the GDP is represented by the public sector, a satisfying description of money must reflect that fundamental fact. Indeed, one of the historical reasons for introducing fiat money was the desire to collect and to enforce taxes in a efficient way. This can not be done easily when money is identified with a substance having intrinsic tangible value (like gold). Indeed, money should be a accounting unit, not a means for storing wealth.

Trade in fiat and save in gold!

contrarian

(10/14/2003; 07:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110365)

Waverider--pricing oil in euros

Very interesting this currency change coming up. On the sister site, gold-eagle, I read some musings that perhaps the currency will start with 20s, then graduate to all denominations. This is just a trial introduction, to see if it will work.

And if it does work, you will only be able to use the new colored money--standard greenbacks will no longer be accepted and valid as currency inside the US.

The ultimate goal, though, as I read on a very smart posting on gold-eagle, is to prevent all the green paper money outside of this country from coming back and causing inflation.

When oil is no longer transacted in the dollar, the dollars will have to go somewhere. With this control in hand, perhaps the Treasury can direct the dollars to more purchases of T bonds--thereby keeping the economy afloat and interest rates down--which is just what they need.

It's just a theory...

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 08:38:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110366)

Contrarian / C.M.

Contrarian : May I suggest a much more straithforward and simple theory : Throw as much dollar-paper at Physical Gold, for as long as you can !

C.M. : May I classify Ambrose's China-EU article under the Ding Dong Bell series !?
EMU, CB-gold has been transferred to China and according to J.Rogers, this morning, the yuan will revalue in time at the Chinese's pace. All should have understood the meaning of US$ printing presses and helocopter confetti by now.
A gigantic $-reflation maneuver against the �-stabilisation maneuvers.

Study as much as you can about the backgrounds of the 1929 stockmarket crash period and one can see much clearer in what is happening Now.

Duisenberg recently referred to the Far Eastern phenomenons and the �-$ exchange rate is also managed (by the ECB) in function of the evolvements overthere.

Bush is heading for Asia, this week !!! Will see...watch the exchange rates !

Cometose

(10/14/2003; 09:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110367)

Jim Rogers on China

It's interesting to look at his current commentary in light of his recent appearans on Financialsense.com Weekly talk show earlier in the summer.....

In that commentary , he appeared with Marc Faber and they discussed CHINA at length .....said the way to make a fortune in the nest two decades was in the CHINA import markets because everything they make is going to put upward pressure on commodities of all typss......Stay focused on the commodities that they have to import to produce finished goods for themeselves and the world......

HOWEVER , in the middle of this dialogue .....he said that their banking system was a mess and to expect a collapse there .......Interesting Belgian,,,,you commented that Jim is a Soros Buddy ....( I think that both these gentlemen were written up in Market Wizards .....(as TRADERS PAR EXCELLENCE)) Some believe that the last collapse in the Asian CONTAGION was precipitated by GEORGE SOROS himself...
With the chinese and perhaps the rest of the region stocking up on GOLD , Perhaps this prognostication will not stand......

It also seems that with the Political ugliness surrounding the MiddleEast and "lack of the smoking gun WMD's " in Iraq, there may be a cohesive movement politically and economic solidarity coming aroung the EU and GOLD BACKED CURRENCY...

WHen the powers that be seek to maintain the status quo in these situations , War always seems the answer....and Iraq is what we got so far.....

It's been politically very damaging to GEORGE BUSH....I hear continued talk and Verbal exchanges between the US and IRAN and the US and Korea......but it looks like the administration has shot itself in the foot....THey cannot go forward in their military plans because (we haven't been attacked yet) it's going to ruin the president's shot at a second term.....Looks like their going to have to stand around and watch while the US $ falls and the price of oil rises and the ineveitable fallout to the economy happens ....in the meantime.....How much damage will that be? We will all wait until next November to see?

Cavan Man

(10/14/2003; 09:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110368)

The Horror of it all....

CNN International - 3 hours ago
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Three more US soldiers were reported dead Tuesday following a series of attacks that killed three other American troops and wounded 13.

Clink!

(10/14/2003; 10:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110369)

More about the usual suspects....

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/news.asp?newsid=1950225Snip :

E-mails and internal documents, many published for the first time in next week's FORTUNE, expose the complicity of some of America's largest and most important banks in the Enron scandal. The report, adapted from the book The Smartest Guys in the Room by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind (Portfolio), reveals how the banks - including J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch -- helped Enron disguise debt and book phony profits, and how almost all of them put money into Enron CFO Andrew Fastow's partnerships because of - not in spite of - their potential for abuse.

The story appears in the October 27 issue of FORTUNE, on newsstands October 20 and at www.fortune.com on October 13. The Smartest Guys in the Room hits stores on October 13, 2003.

J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch no longer deny that they helped enable Enron and have recently paid $366 million in fines. But 'the documents show that the banks weren't merely enablers; they were truly Enron's partners in crime,'report McLean and Elkind.

C! : Looks like it could be an interesting read.

steady

(10/14/2003; 11:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110370)

independent thinking vs stuff on the net!

ever wonder how stuff gets on the net. someone has to put it there? so why i like coming here is the independent analysis of events circumstances and general discussion.
other items make me suspect... as why, if it was important, would the stuff find its way onto the net.

could gold be the bridge to reintergrate world economic activity?
out of the blue and into the balck. give gold a try bring it back!

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/14/2003; 12:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110371)

NICE

http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=2135349nemo

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/14/2003; 12:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110372)

The fruit of your labor: exchange today's value for timeless value!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Cometose

(10/14/2003; 13:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110373)

Other Gold / chinese imports

It was brought to my atttention yesterday or over the weekend that soybeans had begun a move..ment

6 weeks ago about the time of its begin.....someone around here mentioned that that there was a megatrend in the offing that related to the NEW "NEW DEAL" in CHINA relating to ACHICKEN IN EVERY POT......CHineze consumption of CHICKEN is RISING with the STANDARD OF LIVING increasing daily on a broad scale.....so they need to raise more chickens to get the poultry out to the people .........and they have to feed those chickens ......soybeans......

I think I remember the author of this former post and I want to thank you RICH for the keen insight and I thought it bears repeating.....as the SOYBEANS may be GOLDEN import to CHINA>...

Now I looked at the CHart since 1973 and in that year Soybeans went to 13 approximantely and in 88 they went to 11 dollars bushel and in 97 they went to 9 and today they are at 7.4 and someone has been calling for Beans in the teens for sometime .......maybe sooner than we think

Liberty Head

(10/14/2003; 13:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110374)

More On Honest Money

I use the term "honest money" to refer to exchanges between two or more consenting parties, absent any legal tender laws, with the mandatory claims, titles and tracking that go along with them.
In other words, "money" would be defined by a free-market, not the force of gov't.
All the objections I have heard to calling gold "money" seem to assume that legal tender laws and gov't control would remain in effect. A practical assumption to make, but then we are no longer talking about "honest money".
As Robert points out, honest money would make taxation very problematic. Gov't would be constrained. Hallelujah!
Commerce, however would not be constrained.
Those who earned it, instead of those who steal it, would then possess wealth.
In a market absent legal tender laws, gold and silver would become the favored honest money as well as honest wealth.

Best Wishes

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 14:16:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110375)

@ cometose

As a follow up on your posting...I do believe that markets can be "detonated" when anti-forces cooperate/conspire.
The opposite is also true : Competitive market-forces can cooperate/conspire to "support" or "catapult" markets of their choice . That's what the financial brotherhood/fraternity and collusive (telephoned) intervention, is all about. This becomes very unhealthy in a capitalistic system, when market-forces become hyper-concentrated and hyper-powerfull and have the necessary force to drag the smaller and more independant market participants (not connected), into the maelstrom of the rulers' choice. Enron-itis !!!

Apply this to the quasi institutionalization of the Gold-containment and read Ari's post (sorry, masterpiece) msg#110359, afterwards. This will result in a splendid view of the "unobstructed" Gold-horizon (courtesy Ari).

Belgian

(10/14/2003; 14:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110376)

@Liberty Head

Gold trade in a future Free Gold Market will be taxed !!!

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/14/2003; 15:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110377)

Page Update!

Robert

(10/14/2003; 16:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110378)

honest money and entropy

Beyond taxation, there are other important issues which need be taken into account when contemplating the idea of honest money. Consider the average worker who has been working hard and honestly all his life. After working for roughly 40-50 years he is looking forward to retirement. In a honest money system he should expect that the purchasing power of his retirement fund does not decrease significantly over time. But here is the problem: while the money he earned over the years does maintain its purchasing power, the goods and services our worker provided during his active life actually disintegrate in time completely. If our hero worked in a car factory, the cars which he made even if not used at all, lose value over time. Partly due to technological progress which makes the old models less desirable, but more importantly, due to the natural aging process (entropy) which makes the car inoperable after a period of 10 to 20 years (even if the car was not used at all during that time). If you are a office worker, the value of your work fades away even quicker than the value of a piece of hardware made in a factory. If you apply that consideration to a whole generation (let's say the baby boomers), you end up with the impossible scenario where that generation accumulated trillions of Dollars in honest money, while the value of the products and services this generation contributed to society during their active years, quickly fades away all the way down to zero. (Houses last on average 50 years, cars 10 years, computers 3 years, software 1 year, drugs 3-5 years, food few days to few weeks etc). Even whole cities, unless maintained constantly, would fall apart within less than 50 years. Indeed, the soon to retire baby boomers have now tremendous claims (fortunately, in form of dishonest Dollars) against the younger generation while the economic values on which these claims are based crumble away like old junk cars.

The phenomenon of inflation is often attributed to fraudelent policies pursued by people in government and banking. Unfortunately, this is not the whole truth. Take a look at oil. Regardless of monetary policy, the price of oil must rise in time in order to reflect the steady depletion of that resource. The price of oldgrown wood must rise simply because there are fewer and fewer old forrests on earth. The price of fish must rise simply because there are fewer fish in the oceans today than just a few years ago. (In case you did not know, 90% of all the fish in the oceans is already gone due to overfishing). I have said enough to make the point: honest money will remain a dream in a world governed by the laws of thermodynamics. The entropy in the real world makes inflation a necessity in the monetary world. The financial world will disintegrate one day for the same reasons the real world is constantly disintegrating.

As a famous Greek philosopher once said, we must think deeply in order to see the full truth. Seeing is knowing. Everything else is only believing. Good luck to you all deep thinkers!

TownCrier

(10/14/2003; 17:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110379)

Eurosystem growing in stature, building stronger bonds with Russian Centra Bank

http://www.ecb.int/press/03/pr031013.htmECB Press Release: Signing of a protocol on Central Bank Training in Russia

On 13 October 2003, Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, His Excellency Richard Wright, Head of the Delegation of the European Commission in Russia, and Mr. Sergey Ignatiev, Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, signed a protocol in Moscow welcoming the signing of a contract for a project in Russia entitled "Central Bank Training". .... [a] two-year project, which will be launched on 1 November 2003.

...Specifically, the project seeks to help the CBR enhance its capacity in the field of banking supervision by transferring knowledge relating to sound practices employed by European banking supervisors. The wider objective of this major technical assistance project is to foster the stability of the Russian banking system.

-------(see url)-----

I came across this press release today while I was looking into the weekly consolidated financial statement for the Eurosystem. (btw, there was no material change in the reserve position since last week, no nothing further needs to be said on that account).

I'm passing the press release along because this is apropos to a couple of the recent threads of discussion here, particularly Aristotle's persective taken within the context of "euro for oil" trade talks eminating from Germany and Russia.

In addition to the press release excerpts given above, in introductory remarks offered at the signing yesterday in Moscow, President Duisenberg said:

"It is this vast experience that we wish to share with our Russian counterparts. Sound practices and effective supervision provide a key basis for financial stability and an important platform for the conduct of monetary policy. We have noted with great interest the significant progress made in Russia over the past few years in reforming banking supervision. With this project, the Eurosystem hopes to contribute to further strengthening the CBR's banking supervision function as a key measure to foster a more stable financial environment.

"Let me conclude on the hope that the Eurosystem's involvement in the TACIS project will act as a catalyst for deepening the working relations between our institutions further."

Call Centennial this week for a timely and prudent diversification into gold.

R.

Solomon Weaver

(10/14/2003; 17:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110380)

Robert - one gold as "someone's" obligation

Dear Sir Robert

You must pardon me kind Sir, but I have not been reading here regularly enough as of late to see if you are a very recent poster.

Many long time posters (and lurkers) return here often because of the mutual promise we all keep in remaining polite, sound in our reasoning, and "generally" supportive of the value of gold ownership.

We all like a bit of debate at the roundtable, but arguments made from a drunken perspective from consuming too much of one's own mead, tend to leave a bad flavor in the mouth, and spoil the party.

Yesterday is gone, and your post 110337 will, as all others, collect digital dust in the archives...but before it does pass, I might step in and make a few comments:

Firstly, although you mean our kind host no harm, perhaps, I must say that I find your concept distasteful that my "purchase" of gold from him, is nothing but a loan in an asset that "is an obligation from me to my government" and that in this logic, gold is no different than a stock or a bond. In this manner, you are using this forum to publically discredit the trade of the host of this website. If this, kind Sir, is not your personal opinion, but simply a rhetorical viewpoint, it might be best to state it as such.

Secondly, regardless of whether one owns gold, perhaps being an American Citizen creates a certain obligation respective to paying taxes (regardless of domicile), but you have neglected to note that it confers overseas Americans with a certain protected status. Just like the members of this forum ultimately dictate the total quality of dialog here, the quality of the Government of the USA is dictated by taxpaying Americans. Many of the nations where gold ownership remains popular are those in which the citizens still face the prospects of tyranny, even if the tyranny is just a bit of protection racket games played by local organized crime (which the governments claim they would like to do away with). You might take a moment and count the blessings your country offers, and consider that you still do have the "blessing to own" gold as an American, and that under that blessing, you may use Federal Reserve notes which you have "borrowed" from your government, to "buy" examples of such gold, even from our host, just like you might "buy" any number of things which also, unlike property, have no "yearly holding tax" applied.

Third, your fears of a cashless society are predicated on the interpretation that what most Americans find as convenient (digital payment and instant access to credit) is hardly a tradition with most of the other billions of world citizens. If you have lived and travelled amongst these throngs of citizens, you may find it quite perplexing how you may NOT transact with credit instruments for the simple purchase of a coffee or a sandwich (and if you are lucky, an auto teller machine might be had down the street). So, again, the fact that you have the access to such a cashless system might also be considered a blessing.

Just a few thoughts from an old philosopher

Poor old Solomon

The Invisible Hand

(10/14/2003; 18:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110381)

Objection

The conclusion to my message
The Invisible Hand (09/01/03; 18:21:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 107986)
"With Chinese Freegold from a reserve currency to a world standard"
was:
The ECB will not define the euro like the old gold standard as a certain quantity of gold. Instead, it will use gold as a free trading financial reserve so that each increase in the price of gold will bring about an increase in the value of the euro's reserves and thus an increase in the value of the euro itself. This currency concept is closer to the tenets of libertarianism than a gold standard because of the exchange restrictions which inevitably follow a gold standard.

Here's an objection, I am receiving on Another Forum to that message:

"I don't understand your remark. what is "freegold"? a currency? a currency which would be used by whom? and what has the ECB to do with that? I did't know the ECB had linked the value of the euro to some gold stock which would have been used as "financial reserve"

je n'ai pas compris votre remarque. qu'est-ce que le "freegold"? une monnaie? une monnaie qui serait utilis�e par qui? et que vient faire la BCE dans cette affaire? j'ignorais que la BCE aurait li� la valeur de l'euro sur un qulconque stock d'or qui aurait servi de "reserve financiere".

Can anybody suggest a Trail message to answer?

(10/14/2003; 18:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110383)

Jon W. . .

Another top-notch report. Proud that you are part of Team USAGOLD. If gold owners and advocates did not go to the Daily Market Report each day, I can't conceive of how they could consider themselves well
informed on the gold market. That's probably why the page draws such big numbers. Thousand have come to rely on the DMR for their gold information. It's not difficult to understand why.......Onward, my friend.

silvercollector

(10/14/2003; 19:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110384)

Trade deficit

I believe I heard the number for last month coming in at 39 billion.

Since this is an improvement, is it possible that the 'cartel' might use this to their advantage and/or will this lead to weakness in the POG simply on its own merit?

TIA

Liberty Head

(10/14/2003; 19:48:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110385)

Re: Robert msg 110378 What It Is, What It Ain't

Rising prices due to decreased supply "IS NOT" inflation. In this sense rising prices are our friend. They work to keep our resources from being over harvested. They encourage exploration for alternatives.

Rising prices due to creating more fiat units "IS" inflation. In this sense, rising prices are theft.

Also, entropy is not the only law of the universe.
Lucky for us, there are others.

Best Wishes

Dollar Bill

(10/14/2003; 19:53:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110386)

*>*.........+

Sir Solomon Weaver,
You said;
"...the mutual promise we all keep in remaining polite, sound in our reasoning,"
Instead of "we all keep" I think Robert has seen too much and already knows we are also a bit nutty and raucous !

Dollar Bill

(10/14/2003; 20:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110387)

*>*.........+

Sir Robert,
I am happy to report that the data you found on fish is not correct as stated.
"...90% of all the fish in the oceans are already gone due to overfishing"
Not being you, I dont know how all the posts might have felt. I suspect I would start to react in a few ways.
Thats human.
I hope this line at the end of your post doesnt mean you are throwing in the towel.
"Good luck to you all deep thinkers!"
I try to take a couple minutes away from the computer just before I hit the "submit message" so I can reread the post and edit out any hot lines. And I do have to edit!
I dont always catch them.
Do you know that some radio personalities have pictures of smiling crowds in front of them and/or pictures of some audience members. They do thier show for the pictures.
Take a kindly view of us. Even if we run hot.

The Invisible Hand

(10/14/2003; 20:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110388)

A first attempt to answer my own questions

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/GoldTrailTwo.html
FOA (09/16/00; 15:11:26MD - usagold.com msg#38)
After six miles we arrive at the burial tree!
SNIP:
Today, the ECB can use not only it's excess dollars to buy physical gold sold from other banks, they could use Euros printed outright to buy physical spot delivery. If their currency continues to fall before the dollar begins it's terminal phase, this option is wide open to them. Certainly, "Free Gold" is not going to compete against them as it would against the dollar because it's their policy to mark all it's rise to the market. Because Free Gold will not be an official currency, it's wealth building power will compliment the bank's reserves. In addition, national citizens would own gold as a wealth savings, not a currency.

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER4.html
8/10/98 Friend of ANOTHER
(Editor's Note: Please read what's below carefully. This is an extraordinary analysis from the Friend of ANOTHER at a time of much confusion and uncertainty in investment/currency markets. We are told at the outset that the largest pro-gold groups -- the Europeans and the Gulf states -- want a world currency "not subject to the performance of the American economy." In other words, a currency not tied to American treasury obligations, or the perspicacity of any other nation for that matter. That currency for those of us who have reached for the deeper truths of economy is called gold. As an American, I must say that I have never seen the concept of American hegemony explained in quite the same way before. Perhaps, my eyes were closed. I keep getting this feeling that Americans must necessarily begin to understand a new role for this country in a rapidly changing international political and economic environment -- a role for which our political and economic institutions appear ill-prepared. I will not be so presumptuous as to explain what the Friend of ANOTHER is saying, I will let you read for yourself. I do not think it could be said any better than Friend of ANOTHER says it. The fact that his analysis implies how one should design one's portfolio is a happy side benefit.)
==
What more did I overlook?

Robert

(10/14/2003; 20:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110389)

Dear Sir Dollar Bill: I apologize for being wrong on the fish story.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/05/14/coolsc.disappearingfish/
I made the mistake of believing CNN.

Quote: "CNN) -- A new global study concludes that 90 percent of all large fishes have disappeared from the world's oceans in the past half century, the devastating result of industrial fishing"

neo 1

(10/14/2003; 20:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110390)

Thank you, Robert

Your posts make me think...

Cash-less society? You betcha!

I remember saying 40 years ago: "Credit cards? Debit cards? Nah... they'll never catch on." People thought I was a loon. "What are you Andrew, some kinda Luddite? Dont believe in progress?" I hope they dont have the last laugh. But I notice that most of the shoppers at WalMart now use credit and debit cards. No coercion here - just the sound of inevitability.

Dollar Bill

(10/14/2003; 20:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110391)

*>*.........+

"14 Oct 2003

OPEC president warned on Sunday, that oil prices could crash next year unless planned output increases from Iraq, Russia and other independent producers are curbed.

Meanwhile on Friday Russian energy minister Igor Yusufov termed OPEC's price policy unacceptable and said that anything **over** $25 per barrel was an unfair price. From our point of view the minister is mincing words: for Russian oil companies (and the state as a whole) high world prices are unquestionably a windfall. Such rhetoric is clearly aimed at winning praise from president Putin (who, during a recent visit to the US, stated that if unfair oil prices were set, Russia might limit its deliveries to world markets; however, it's obvious that Putin was referring to unfairly low petroleum prices). The second explanation is that this could be a move by a government lobby initiated by oil companies, which are expecting to see a drop in global oil prices, which is why they are now trying to maximize profits.

We continue to maintain that Russia has no real leverage to impact global petroleum markets, and that the price of crude oil is destined to decline."

'''''My guess is that Putin is helping the US.
There could be quiet Bush.Putin agreements that could in place as they agree in some global foreign policy stategy areas.
I can only speculate on them, but such notions are supported when the Russian energy minister says such things.

Robert

(10/14/2003; 20:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110392)

Dear Sir Liberty Head: how to measure inflation

You are absolutely right. The correct definition of inflation is via the rate of increase of the money supply. In order to avoid the old discussion whether inflation should be measured via price increases of real goods or as rate of increase in the money supply, I propose that we consider instead as a measure for the value of money the
quotient

(supply of goods and services) / (total amount of money).

The advantage of this "value-index" is that this quotient decreases either by decreasing the numerator (decreasing the supply of real goods) or by increasing the denominator (increasing the supply of money). In both cases, the value index decreases. Many discussions on what constitutes inflation can be avoided by dropping the inflation rate and looking instead at the value index.

Thanks for your comment.

steady

(10/14/2003; 21:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110393)

honest money moving from idea to ideal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

robert can an anti-thesis have an anti thesis before it becomes a thesis?

as honest money is the anti-thesis to whatever you want to call this 32 year experment with free floating currency

Since honest money is not yet an accepted truth by the planet (dont worry ecoism is seeing to the distribution of the idea-- ideal concept--- through its earthly hamonious channels, dont you think its a little to early for the population to seriously consider your idea as 10 they havent even fully grasped teh honest money concept quite yet. In the mean time the present system suits them just fine.

In time your anti-thesis to honest money will be welcomed by the truth revealing golden flames of gold which will burn away any thing full of injustice or packed with lies .ny (promissary notes backed by nothing)

Robert

(10/14/2003; 21:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110394)

Sir Solomon Weaver: Thanks for your kind message.

I got the hint and will follow your advice. Thanks again!

specie-man

(10/14/2003; 21:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110395)

Robert, cars, entropy

I currently own 6 cars, and the *newest* one is now 31 years old. All six run and they are worth more now than when they were brand new (not adjusted for "inflation").

Not everything is wasted.

PS: Entropy can be overcome in a localized system by the application of intelligence and energy. In other words, classic car restoration.

Robert

(10/14/2003; 21:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110396)

Dear Sir Steady: In my opinion, honest money

is not as important as honest accounting. The science of accounting today is fraudelent at its core because it is based on irresponsible economic theories. In fact, the issue of dishonest money arises only because accounting itself is dishonest. For instance, our economic models and national accounting measures (like GDP) do not take into account the disappearing wealth of the natural resources. The cost of depleting essential resources (like natural gas, oil, important metals etc) is not factored into the equations because some intelligent economist once said "do not worry about natural resources - they can not be depleted since they are always replaceable". I do not want to spend too much forum space on this subject. If you are interested to learn more, I highly recommend the articles on accounting (avaiable on the net) by Antal Fekete. He is a goldbug himself and what he has to say on this subject is among the best I have come across in my own studies.

Waverider

(10/14/2003; 21:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110397)

Belgian, Contrarian

Yes Belgian - it *is* interesting to see the theories proposed here years ago materialize - one will more likely find literature on Euro-Oil-(Gold) anywhere but in the American media. I appreciate your prescient views and perspective. However, I would be interested in *exploring* Contrarian's comments about a potential 2-tier currency in the US for controlling inflation. I found an article related to US Senate Bill S-307: Plans for Two Currencies for America, dated 1995 and proposed by Senator Leahy. The bill was proposed as a "pre-emptive strike against conterfeiting", but it was thought to be an attempt to devalue the domestic dollar while protecting foreign interests. It seems to me that with a 2-tier currency the Federal Reserve could potentially make a pre-emptive strike against domestic inflation (as outlined by Contrarian), pay off foreign debt with cheaper "foreign currency", and impose exchange controls by restricting the purchase of other currencies (or Gold) with domestic dollars. I'm sure that the issue is considerably more complicated than this however, and I'd be interested in other's thoughts about the potential, pros/cons of a 2-tier currency in the US and why it could/couldn't be possible. TIA!!

Waverider

Waverider

(10/14/2003; 21:46:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110398)

Wikipedia and the US$

http://en2.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_dollarIn trying to find information about 2-tier currencies, I stumbled up Wikipedia...and look what is said about the value of Gold....

"As at July 2003, it has been estimated that if all the gold held by the US government was again required to back the circulating US currency, an ounce of gold would need to be worth around $25,000."

Robert

(10/14/2003; 21:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110399)

Sir Specie-Man: Congratulations to your 31 year old car!

My stereo amplifier was build in the mid 1960 by the British company Quad, while my speakers were made in 1957 by the same company (electrostatic principle). I cherish that equipment very much and the fact that it still plays the music in a beautiful way gives me a sense of pride and a motivation to keep everything in good order. Over the years I had to replace many parts (capacitors, switches etc). Without that effort it would have been gone a long time ago. Despite all of this, I believe that the point of my message you are refering to is still valid.

Waverider

(10/14/2003; 21:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110400)

Gold and the International Monetary System�a Chronology

http://www.gold.org/value/official/history/T_chron.html...and this is also an interesting link from the World Gold Council.

Liberty Head

(10/14/2003; 22:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110401)

How Not To Measure Inflation

Robert,

If you seek truth and honesty, don't use equations where every number is a variable.
What makes honest money honest is that it's amount cannot be changed by anything other than work.

Best Wishes

Cometose

(10/14/2003; 23:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110402)

@ Silvercollector re: Trade Deficit

Sometime between the time the war started and the present...the trade deficit for one of the months was well in excess of 39 billion .....somewhere way up there

Did that make a difference when the upsurge in the Stock Market was happening ......no......why not ? SOme numbers count and some don't and timing is everything...
The big key is to know what numbers count and WHEN ???
THey count when everybody decides that the dollar is a sell or the bond market is a bore.....or that GOLD IS an overlooked and undervalued opportunity....or silver or copper or soybeans..... or that Russian oil should be priced in EUROS......

and it seems to me that we are right on the edge of something that may be very subtle on the surface but underneath is a ticking time bomb.....like rising oil prices married with negative interest rates.....

ONe more thing........there's an expression that was used to describe the markets relative to earnings in the late nineties that isn't being bantered around much anymore....which phrase was " this market is priced to perfection"........earnings assumptions were so high that there was no room for the slightest deviation from the eearnings estimates......( since then , it's become a little less easy for the accountants to lie in the numbers of publicly traded companies but i think they've found more loopholes to lie through),,,,,,

I now believe that there is an expression that is more appropos to apply to today's markets three and one half years after it's peak......these markets are derivitized to perfection....It's a very dangerous statement because bankers and accountants are control freaks who think they can program all variables into a computer model and bring about the self fulfilling prophecy .......of their own vision......hmmmmm I gotta problem with that .....LTCM...one of whose principals was a NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE WINNER................failed because their model failed in realtime circumstances (somehting about RUSSIAN BONDS)

So where does the unexpected fit into BANKER"S FANTASIES ABOUT FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC UTOPIA>>>>>>>Two weeks ago a meteor dropped out of the sky into INDIA and wiped out a couple of houses......THat's the first time I 've heard of such an event ....up until that time I believed all meteors burned upon entering our atmosphere .......Facts are changing or I'm underinformed.....I may be underinformed about many things.....THERE IS a SUpervolcano underneath YELLOWSTONE.....latest info I heard was that all the fish in Yellowstone lake were dead ; one of the Geiser basins has 200 degree temps at the ground which area has been completely shut down ......that the sulpher stinch is widespread and running off the tourists......and that the Geological Survey people reckon that the magma is 3/10 of a mile from the surface in some areas of the Park....Vesuvius is all hot and bothered now as well.....I dont know how they would know , but geologists say that the last time Yellowstone blew was 630,000 years ago and that when It went it affected destruction 600 miles away....funny thing about humans : they think that if they civilized it or control it ......or built around it , it ( including nature ) is subject to THEM : the humans.....IF YELLOWSTONE BLOWS....it doesn't care one whit what man thinks or says ....Man won't be consulted....

There is one thing that history is also teaching me today .... there are two primary places that the men and women of the world go to get power......ONe of them is money which may be translated in many forms to obtain power; and another is WMD"S......the later is a shorter distance to obtaining power...the line to the second options is very very very long in coparison to the first option and the line to the second is full of WACKO"S that have something to prove....ONE cannot factor the concept I just disclosed , one cannot quantify it and program it into a computer with a numerical value attaced and place it into a formula and thereby derivitize it......

First John SNOW went to CHINA, Now GEORGE BUSH.....is this a good sign.....knowing that the CHINESE hold the keys to the level of our interest rates in their willingness to fund our deficits (TWIN) .......there's your meteor there's your super volcano .....double threat right under the banker's noses and did they quantify this threat.....and all of the middle east to the far east is laading up on gold and silver....Is there a techtonic shift coming here......Is the status quo threatened.......
WHy do the chinese have a freeway they have built to Pak4istan, the gateway to the middleastern OIL reserves?

Left BRAIN CONTROL FREAKS cause RIGHT BRAIN CREATIVE PEOPLE TO want to REBEL.......DERIVITIZE THAT! In lieu of WORLD WAR III in which case all bets are off ( SEE DERIVITIVES PROSPECTUS qualifiers) , we may have to return to semi free Market Capitalism.....where value finds it's own place in space and time......in a relatively easy manner...

THe last two times I 've seen the President Speak , He's looked unbelievable and Pathetic......His administration is divided ......Some wonder who is in charge???? and they have run out of threats and dirty tricks which has put them in a temporary state of paralisis......IN THIS VACUUM....GOLD WILL RISE and OTHER MARKETS will fall because everybody decided it was a good time , a good idea and they felt unopposed....THe present state of Politics globally is a perfect backdrop within which for these events to unfold......Looks like defining his Presidency by chasing terrorists may have been a big trick and somebody got outsmarted.......3/4 through his first term in office 2/3 of the axis of evil continue unmolested and CONGRESS (and the American people ) go a choking on the 87 BILLION dollar price tag to rebuild IRAQ......think he bit off more than he could chew????? Maybe a little too much caffiene?

Tombstone's a growing little town ?????? VERY COSMOPOLITAN !!!!!and SANITIZED .....by the NEWS MEDIA "FOR THE PEOPLE"

ski

(10/14/2003; 23:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110403)

Silver market talk ....

no link given
Within the most recent commentary by Ted Butler of 10-14-03...

"I a no longer wary, as I have been for the past two months. The market structure (commercials and specs) is better positioned for this being a bottom (in silver) than at any point in the past few months."

Black Blade

(10/14/2003; 23:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110404)

MK � DMR and tonight's US Dollar Discussion

Thanks you for the mention of the MR. I almost expected to be skewered for the "Bush visit and dinner" remark in the comments section and the proposed "tariff on Asian goods vs. currency intervention issue". For those who do not recall the elder Bush who had the unfortunate incident during a state dinner with the Japanese PM at that time several years ago. The excuse was that the elder President George Bush had been ill and suffered "jet lag" �� how do put this politely, hmmm� Well he deposited his partially digested dinner into the Japanese PMs lap. A Kodak moment maybe? Well it certainly did make the news that night. Will history repeat? Who knows?

Late this week President George Bush (the younger) will head off to Japan to meet with Asian heads of state an a big get together in Thailand. I am not sure but it may be a meeting of ASEAN. Today the President did discuss his "support for the strong dollar" (yeah right!). However, he did announce that he was dismayed at the currency intervention by Japan and the Chinese yuan peg to the US dollar and it is sure to be a primary topic of debate as the US is suffering a massive loss of jobs as US businesses move offshore to compete against Asian subsidized industries. Obviously the "strong dollar support" is for political and public consumption as the whole idea at this point of the economic cycle is completely absurd and currency intervention is undermining the Feds massive currency creation to stimulate the economy through "reflation".

Tonight's discussion on the dollar is quite interesting so far. I still have some reading to catch up on as I had a late night/long afternoon in martial arts practice and sparring. This whole week and weekend has been quite hectic and still had to take time to do my "good deed" for the day taking my elderly neighbor (Korean Vet) to the VA hospital for some health problems.

Anyway, the one thing that tonight's dollar discussion brings to mind is the "devaluation of the dollar" over a given amount of time to discourage saving and encourage spending. I don't recall which Fed Governor (was from Boston at the time I believe) and a Fed economist came up with this odd idea a few years ago and has been discussed again and again on the idea that it would discourage hoarding of "dirty" money from crime as well. Where would people save their hard earned cash for big purchases to avoid paying bankers interest payments for years. I wonder if this issue is about to come back into the limelight. Obviously a good amount of savings would go into hard assets such as precious metals as savings accounts and time decaying cash would provide a lot of incentive to buy precious metals.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(10/14/2003; 23:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110405)

Comatose � Yellowstone

Yellowstone is quite well thank you. I live nearby (and downwind should it go off again). The Calera should it collapse as it has in the past would destroy life throughout most of north America (it did lead to several extinctions of N. American critters in the past). Mt. St. Helens was just a little burp not worthy of a footnote in comparison, a caldera collapse in Yellowstone would certainly leave no one unaffected across the US and much of Canada. Of course this mantle plume has been "exploding" on average every 600,000 years are we are about due for another one. Of course the track of the mantle plume can be traced all the way from McDermott, Idaho to it's present location. Anyway, the fishing is still quite good but anything can happen at any time. Of course if it happens in our lifetime I would be cooked in the resulting ignimbrite or ash fall and eastward much of the country would likely be buried under several feet of volcanic ash. Even cities as far away as Chicago and further would be buried (think Pompei except on a scale several times larger) Yikes!

- Black Blade

Druid

(10/15/2003; 00:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110406)

Robert

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/inflation.htm"The phenomenon of inflation is often attributed to fraudelent policies pursued by people in government and banking. Unfortunately, this is not the whole truth. Take a look at oil. Regardless of monetary policy, the price of oil must rise in time in order to reflect the steady depletion of that resource. The price of oldgrown wood must rise simply because there are fewer and fewer old forrests on earth. The price of fish must rise simply because there are fewer fish in the oceans today than just a few years ago. (In case you did not know, 90% of all the fish in the oceans is already gone due to overfishing). I have said enough to make the point: honest money will remain a dream in a world governed by the laws of thermodynamics. The entropy in the real world makes inflation a necessity in the monetary world. The financial world will disintegrate one day for the same reasons the real world is constantly disintegrating.

As a famous Greek philosopher once said, we must think deeply in order to see the full truth. Seeing is knowing. Everything else is only believing. Good luck to you all deep thinkers!"

Druid: Robert, inflation has always been a tricky subject. In antiquity inflation was more a natural phenomena than man made. So I would argue that inflation today is strictly man made and brought about by errant and irresponsible government policies. We don't trade seashells, camel dung, arrows, etc...we trade fiat currency and digital entries for goods and services. In a free and competitive market if the price of oil or any other commodity rose in relation to the concept of scarcity then new entrants would enter the marketplace to compete for the additional profits. If this did not lower the price enough (we have a shortage of entrants or technological barrier..etc), then the creative genius of the market place would take hold and other alternative forms of energy would be sought out to effectively compete against the more expensive commodity. Herein lies the problem of monopoly and politics (a whole different can of worms). The inflation (price hike) that you are inferring here would be minimal as physical competition would be a tough constraint to higher prices.

I'm not so sure I understand your continuous examples of depletion. You can create the economic incentive to renew, rebuild etc. You can build a house that can last longer then 50 years, cars to last longer then 10 years etc. You can even design and build a light bulb that can last up to 100 years or more(review design obsolescence). I might even be able to make a plausible argument that we humans replenish. I could be wrong but it appears to me that you are applying the concept of scarcity in a random fashion. The concept of "honest money" has to do with fair dealings among us humans, this subject gets a lot deeper, but the executive summary is, if we can't even come close to approaching this standard then we are in for a very dark age. Seeing is perception, knowing is knowing and understanding is understanding. If you want some great information regarding the ravages of good old fahioned man made inflation, I strongly encourage you to click on the URL.

Black Blade

(10/15/2003; 00:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110407)

DOLLAR DIVERGING FROM STOCKS

http://www.decisionpoint.com/chartspotlitefiles/031008_dxy.html
Snippit:

An unusual divergence has developed between stocks and the dollar. In the area surrounded by the red box you can see how stocks have bottomed and gotten stronger, while the dollar has weakened significantly. This is probably a manifestation of the Fed's liquidity pump gone wild, reinflating the stock bubble and undermining the soundness of the dollar. My guess is that this is not a good thing.

Black Blade: Now here's something quite interesting that I noticed after reading an article by Neil George (now of "Personal Finance"). One item of note is that all currencies are weakening and yet gold and platinum continue to strengthen significantly during this time period (check out the graphs). The Federal reserve is creating dollars at a fast a furious pace and yet in comparison to the other major currencies the dollar is treading water in comparison, and yet stocks continue to climb higher. Another bubble is brewing while scared investors are frantically trying to recover losses from the last blow off in stocks. Yet the equities indices are still far off from their highs. You don't hear this from the Wall Street morons and carnival barkers on CNBC, CNNfn, and Bloomberg, but does anyone realize that the DOW is still down about �14.5%, the S&P 500 down �30%, and Nasdaq down -61% from the highs reached three years ago in March 2000. The equities are reflating but this is still very likely a suckers rally with a devalued dollar (and euro and yen). So before anyone gets all giddy over rising stocks on dubious profits raised from cost-cutting, take into consideration that gold has risen about 38% in response and is plastering the weaker dollar (euro and yen) and is stomping the hell out of stocks. Yet we keep hearing about a " jobless economic recovery" and always in the "second half" (missed three years running so far by the alleged "expert" economists.. Sorry folks, this is just the beginning stages of a secular Bear Market in paper an a secular Bull Market in precious metals. These cycles run in 18-20 years. So far it has only been three years since the initial deflating bubble and we are still awaiting the "necessary capitulation" the alleged "experts" economists said was necessary before the real recovery could begin. Any doubt now why Treasury Secretary Snow was groveling before his Asian counterparts a couple of weeks ago and why President Bush is running scared to Asian already talking about the US dollar? Hmmm�

slingshot

(10/15/2003; 00:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110408)

Midas Crusade

The Drums Of War beat steady. Orders were given and each Knight attended to his tasks. The castle ressembled a hive of honeybees. Wagons were brought forth and horses hitched. Provisons were loaded. Extra swords and bows. Shields and axes. Tools to make the machines to lay siege to Hammerton. Many new faces abounded and excitement filled them. The older Knights knew that this feeling would change as the battle of Hammerton progressed. An army, now assembled on the same field which once they stood. Remembering the day the tower fell. Crossing the Field of Years and taking the fortress. This was to be the longest march. To a town guarded by two fast flowing rivers and its land approach, wide open fields.
In the Council Chamber, the oil lamps burned bright and long. Scouts were sent out on various routes to determine passage and report back.
During this Council of War, Sir M.K. asked Gandalf.
My good Wizard, could your crystal ball be of use to us?
Gandalf did not answer immediately. He was drawn back to the encounter he had in his chambers.
Gandalf? said Sir M.K. Yes, yes, he replied. I should tell you, to use the crystal ball, may place us in danger!
Yet, it may help us'said Gandalf.
The Table Round had a look of concern.
It is apparent you wish not to tell us all you know, said Sir Black Blade. Is it worth the risk?
Gandalf thought for awhile, stood up and went to retrieve the crystal ball.
He returned with the crystal ball and staff. Placing the crystal ball in its holder in front of him on the Table Yore.
It was covered with the velvet cloth and Gandalf removed it It was clear.
He then placed his staff close to him and began his encantations to show all, the vision of Hammerton.
And so it was. Hammerton was revealed to them. A town heavily fortified with many soldiers. Archers and horsemen. Barricades to the entrances of both bridges and city gates.
They peered into the image and what happened next put fear into all.
The crystal ball as before became dark, except for a small light within that cast no light upon the table.
Then the voice fill the room.
Gandalf, the voice said. The oil lamps brightened.
You know who I am. Leave these insignificants and join me. I will give you great wealth and power for I am Therroth! Your teacher and you know my power.
Gandalf took hold of his staff and stepped back.
I WILL NOT!, he yelled.
Then feel my power, Therroth replied.
The crystall ball become very bright and streams of light emitted froms its core. Flashes were like lightning bolts and struck in all directions, chipping the stone from the walls on the chamber.
YOU WILL NOT WIN! the voice yelled.
But as before, at the gate of this very castle,Gandalf would summon all his power. He held his staff and the same blue aura surrounded him. More and more bolts struck him.
He lowered his staff and pointed it at the crystal and then as the room was filled with the sounds of a demonic chorus,
A beam of light come from
Gandalfs staff and in the next second the crystal ball exploded.
The smell of ozone was in the air.
Sir M.K. looked about the table. Not one Knight moved from his place. Omar Khayyam and his Captains were liken to steel and after a short time Omar spoke.

Is that all he has to give this, Therroth? Laughter began to fill the room.

The days ahead will be a test for all.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Belgian

(10/15/2003; 01:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110409)

@Waverider

Two tiers currency and exchange controls do appear if and when a nation state (a currency) goes into isolation and protection...non-alignement.
Euroland's most recent example were the exchange controls in France (pr� EMU). France wanted to manage its monetary affairs, internally, and in non-convergence with the surrounding currencies.
The french franc declined in exchange rate and the French had to live on a confetti "island". Confetti export control.
Another example is South Africa.

But these examples are about currencies without any reserve status, as the dollar, and therefor not completely comparable.

If and when the dollar (reserve) should decide to start with measures to excercise exchange controls...then the dollar shows the whole world that it has gone on the defensive (isolation) and wishes to withdraw from its responsibility of being a reserve currency. Dollar devaluation will certainly follow and the damage-control will focus on the resulting internal price-inflation (moderate or hyper). The dollar's monetary policies (the dollar's worth) will become completely domestically oriented.

Then the dollar has abandoned its reserve status and an alternative must take over.

Since I am NOT a banker or monetary professional...I cannot describe how this process might evolve in all its details.

But there is only ONE outcome possible ...further currency devaluation...decline in purchasing power...higher prices for the same products due to defaulting currency worth.
Two tier system or/and exchange controls (island retreat) are nothing else than tools to desperately contain a galopping currency depreciation and consequent price-inflation.

The only alternative is to print more $ and export more of the present dollar reserve and hope that it will remain in use, one way or another. One couldn't expect this from a french franc or rand or any other local currency.

Reread what A/FOA said about the possibility of having two different gold markets (US-EU) in the future. Americans might face another form of gold containment during a transition period as to protect (re-organise) domestic monetary affairs ???

Black Blade

(10/15/2003; 01:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110410)

How the chip industry and its high-tech jobs are fading away

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/1014talton14.html
Snippit:

Semiconductor manufacturing, which accounts for the majority of Arizona's high-paid technology jobs, is declining here at an alarming pace. And the state lacks other significant high-tech sectors to take its place. The slide is gradual, but it represents a sea change that threatens one of the state's most generous sources of wealth, upscale jobs paid from money that flows in from outside Arizona. The losses have come in small but steady numbers that add up to thousands since the boom. In addition to the "blue collar" tech jobs of chip assembly, positions in engineering, information technology and support have gone away. Chipmaking jobs are mostly moving to Asia, where labor and other costs are a fraction of those in America, and where the fastest-growing markets for semiconductors are found.But the industry's large manufacturing base and its thousands of jobs are in terminal decline. Even the best-capitalized operations can only hope to hold their own. As the population grows, it won't soon find the abundance of tech jobs that were available in the '90s. Chipmakers faced classic manufacturing pressures, including high capital investment, overseas competition and using machines to replace workers. This chip-intensive vulnerability became clear as developing countries grabbed the low-cost advantage, and recession ravaged the industry in 2001.

Black Blade: High tech jobs from blue to white collar positions are all headed to Asia (as are manufacturing, automanufacturing, assembly line work, etc.). If you are in computer science or a related field or are considering going to college to be a part of the "new economy" then look elsewhere. Even Silicon Valley is dying. These jobs are going going gone! Jobs to consider are perhaps in health care or education (or some civil service job) unless you like flipping burgers. The tide has changed and it is permanent. High tech is moving out of country and the days of signing bonuses with options and high salaries as incentives are of days gone by. Even customer service jobs and support services are likely to be found in such places as India where trainees are coached in Midwestern American accents and to answer service calls with names like Andy, John, and Sue. Welcome to the future as America is heading into a lower standard of living as jobs leave US shores forever.

DummyANI

(10/15/2003; 01:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110411)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Spartacus

(10/15/2003; 02:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110412)

The Weak Dollar's Impossible Strength

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentaries/commentary_text.php4?id=1337⟨=1&m=series
The Weak Dollar's Impossible Strength
by J. Bradford DeLong

---Once upon a time, until 1997, America's current account deficit was relatively small--just 1% of GDP. Since then, the deficit has widened dramatically, to 2.7% of GDP in 1999, 3.5% in 2001, and an estimated 4.7% this year. Expect more of the same in 2004, when the current account deficit should reach 5.1% of GDP, despite forecasts that the US economy will grow significantly faster than most of its trading partners. How long will the rest of the world continue to finance America's external deficit? What will happen when it stops doing so? ---

Belgian

(10/15/2003; 03:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110413)

@TIH - FREEGOLD

Many keep on struggling with the definition (understanding) of what exactly "freegold" means.
Freegold is Gold that is trading in a FREE GOLD MARKET...market....MARKET.
Most are convinced that Gold is trading freely within a gold market that they consider free. We can all buy and sell physical gold, can we !? Yes you can ! But...

The reason WHY we can buy/sell, physical gold (in homeopatic quantities) is because we prefer to trade paper gold above physical gold !!!
We have been "conditioned" into paper gold bugs by the perfidious monetary system. Gold imprisonment has been made very convenient.

The illusion of the virtual free gold market can live on for as long as there remains physical gold available for those contrarian sceptics that barbaricly keep on preferring physical above paper. That's why a minimum of physical gold must remain available under all circumstances as to not provoke any rush from paper gold into physical gold...

As to keep the *illusion* of freegold in a free gold market, alive. Paper gold IS Unfree gold. Paper gold can ALWAYS remain managed, because there will always be more than enough paper available under any circumstances...and the necessary homeopathic amounts of Physical, as well.

TIH, try to argument understandably why your questionaires should "de-paperize" themselves before the paper circus defaults Big way. Wish you all the luck possible with your endeavors.

Belgian

(10/15/2003; 04:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110414)

Bush's 8 days to Asia....

Imo, the dollar wants to maneuver as to obtain "pricing-power". The ability to increase prices for goods and services in a global trade that has become over-competitive and managed to land in more price-deflation + monetary-inflation. This contradiction says everything about the Asian power over the West !!!

Impossible to compete against the massive expansionary emergency of the East. Monetary adjustments (rising yen-yuan) will change NOTHING to the existing evolution.
Industrial Japan will amalgate into China and make the competition for the West even worse.

When more western jobs keep moving to the east, the western pricing power will decline even more, despite unbridled monetary expansion. Dramatic defaults will become more probable regardless of any bailing out efforts.

China and its satelites are on their way to become a super-power. This might provoke the opening of the bags with dirty tricks under the disguise of restoring fairness (fair play).

Always expect the unexpected.

3 Americans killed in Gaza (Israel). UN displaying more irrelevance. Rising tensions !

Caradoc

(10/15/2003; 05:00:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110415)

Strange dichotomy

Yesterday marked a strange dichotomy....

In the United States -- a nation tracing its heritage to the Puritans who saw their Massachusetts settlement as becoming a "city on a hill" providing a shining light as an example to the world -- the Supreme Court announced that it will be pondering the acceptability of the expression "one nation under God." Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet the Chinese -- apparently without a lot of deliberating about the relationship between divinity and state-sponsored efforts -- launch as their first manned orbital flight a vehicle simply and unambiguously named "Divine Wind."

Apart from the strangeness of this dichotomy, note that Divine Wind is nothing like the tiny capsules that Shepherd, Glenn, and Gagarin rode in. Although only one man is aboard for this flight, it's designed as a three-man vehicle capable of circumlunar orbit. In short, at the end of this flight the Chinese will be ready to skip over the decade of development that took the US space program from earth orbit to lunar orbit.

My opinion:

The Chinese will continue to work cheaply, swapping their products for dollars and quietly swapping those dollars for gold until 2005, at which point they begin to flex their muscles politically, militarily, economically, and technically. By 2008, those attending the Olympic Games will know they are visiting the most powerful nation on earth, one whose gold-backed currency has demonstrated the clout to acquire much of the world's most desireable real estate whether priced in cheap dollars or cheap Euros.

If the three years between 2005 and 2008 seem like a short time for such a transformation, just compare the Germany of 1933 to the Germany that hosted the 1936 Olympics.

Just how I see it,

Caradoc

Cometose

(10/15/2003; 07:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110416)

@Black Blade

THanks for the update and correction on Yellowstone;
My other sources on the area have obviously been given to exagerration ..

LeSin

(10/15/2003; 07:21:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110417)

Gorbachev - Russia/Saudies - From Outside the Square - Interesting

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?id_issue=5663681
Politics

Oct 14 2003 5:38PM

Gorbachev suggests introducing Arab troops into Iraq under UN flag
KOLN. Oct 14 (Interfax) - Mikhail Gorbachev, the former president of the USSR, said that the introduction of troops from Arab countries into Iraq instead of allied troops could help install peace there more quickly.

"On the one hand, I am happy to see that the issue with Iraq, which brought so much tension to the world, has been muted and the UN Security Council is actively working on it. On the other hand, explosions in Iraq are not stopping, people continue to die, and in a certain sense the situation is getting hotter, so perhaps we need to seek other solutions for the regulation of the Iraq crisis," Gorbachev told Interfax on Tuesday.

Gorbachev has suggested a plan in which "American, British and other allied troops would be replaced by the Armed Forces from countries in the Near Eastern region, including Saudi Arabia, which could play a significant role there."

"But they would have to enter under the UN flag, perhaps with political involvement from the League of Arab States, and to take upon themselves the responsibility for reinstating peace in Iraq as well as the reconstruction of the nation and its sovereign state," Gorbachev stated. [IQ RU ASIA EUROPE EEU EMRG POL DE] dt tj <>

Belgian

(10/15/2003; 07:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110418)

@LeSin

Sorry, but I don't trust Gorbachev (and alikes), paid-for, trial balloons. And...the state of Israel exists 50 years and there never was a lasting peace or any kind of solution in sight, other than complete expulsion of all Palestinians into Jordan. The same is going to happen with Iraq !
There was no oil in Vietnam but in the ME, there is plenty of it. Afghanistan (plus other -stans) and the Balkan are oil/gas pipeline corridors. Afghanistan will evolve into a colombia-like model and the Balkan will slowly integrate into Euroland.
My conclusion is a simple one : For as long as the world's cheap oil reserves have to be tapped from the Arabian sands, the ME will remain an explosive powder keg.

Don't forget that "war" is an industry !!!

tyro

(10/15/2003; 08:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110419)

Iraqi Gold Confiscation

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/15/national/15FURL.html?th=&pagewanted=print&position=snip: NY Times.com October 15, 2003,On Furlough, Soldier Savors Every Moment
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla., Oct. 14 � Juan Castillo just came home from war. Now he is going back.
Specialist Castillo, one of those instinctively sunny types, was not about to miss this furlough. But even his mood could quickly darken when someone asked about the unfinished business only a duffel bag away.
�"In the beginning I was into this; we all were," he said. But now, he feels the war is a waste�"We haven't found anything, no weapons of mass destruction, no Saddam, no nothing. And the people there hate us. If we were rolling through a town and they were cheering, hell yeah, it would make us feel better. But when they're not cooperating and throwing rocks and giving us evil looks, we don't want to be there. We're conquerors to them. It wasn't supposed to be like that."
Sometimes, the biggest enemy is boredom. When Specialist Castillo finishes his shift on the radio, he seems to have acres of time to do nothing but think of home.
Specialist Castillo then dropped in on his old guidance counselor, Teresa Snyder, whom he showed pictures of himself strolling through palaces and posing with bricks of confiscated Iraqi gold. In many photos, it looked as if Specialist Castillo were playing war rather than fighting it.
"What are you exactly doing over there?" Ms. Snyder said.
He replied: "Ever seen the show `Cops'? That's basically it: kicking in doors, searching things, looking for weapons and gold and stuff like that."
Her eyes studied his face.
"Is it getting better?" she asked.
"No," he said.

tyro: Interesting that they are confiscating gold. Anyone have more information on this?

CoBra(too)

(10/15/2003; 08:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110420)

Not Again!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031015/economy_wellink_gold_1.htmlPretty much chewed out proposition.

Seems to be just another effort to maintain some order in the ongoing decline of the $. Decline it must. The main question will be at what level may a new equilibrium be sustainable? ... and much more important, against what? - As all others are striving to adjust their currencies competitively as well.

As it's a structural problem there's no level, or better bottom for the globe's reserve currency,though, let's do it orderly ... at least until the next major derivative implosion.

And finally I do feel, that BuBa is only taken steps to bail out DB's gold derivative position, which may already be deeply under water. Of course, this is speculation only, though together with the 1.700 tons deeply stored at Westpoint, it makes some sense again! cb2

Aquarian

(10/15/2003; 09:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110421)

Peach Dollars

Hello all. it's me aquarian--i usually preface all of my posts here by saying i am an idiot by thanking everyone for their patience. at this time--i will renew these sentiments and i will posit my question for the group:

i'm sure you all have seen the news and even advertisements for the new peach colored $20 bills.

i've heard some interesting theories about this new currency (i tend to think that conspiracy theories make the most sense sometimes, but then again i prefaced my statements by saying i was an idiot). Specifically that it will only be circulated within US borders and that it will not be exchangable in foreign countries. and that it's value will not be the same as your traditional greenback.

Has anyone heard about this? or have any opinion/insight on this? am i just an idiot who probably reads too much conspiracy theory?

thanks group--

contrarian

(10/15/2003; 09:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110422)

Aquarian, Peach Dollars, and everyone else who responded to my post

Yesterday my comment on this peach colored funny money was that I think it's a first stab at preventing the current green money, most of which is outside this country, from ever returning to this country and causing inflation (if and when oil starts to be traded in euros and the dollar loses desirability as the standard currency).

The 20s are a trial test, I imagine to be extended to the other denominations if successful. And of course it would replace the current greenbacks we use INSIDE the US. Outside the US foreigners would be stuck with the greenbacks.

I can only think that this scheme could only end with a huge devaluation of the external greenback, which would actually suit the US purposes, since it would devalue our debt. Although it might cause all sorts of unforeseen problems...any ideas anyone?

I imagine the Fed would be replacing the paper one for one, taking in the greenbacks and replacing with the peach money--ultimately taking the green out of circulation inside the US. Like they did when they replaced the silver quarters, dimes, etc. with the trash metals in the mid 1960s.

I don't see it as a nefarious inflation of money supply scheme, since they're already doing that every day, and no one's stopping them.

I see it more as a clever way of trying to forestall/ward off currency problems when the rest of the world sees the writing on the wall, and tries to dump the dollar.

I would love to hear others' comments on this...I think it's a huge issue that deserves discussion (and of course the general public understands nothing about its implications).

CoBra(too)

(10/15/2003; 09:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110423)

Pech Dollars?

@ Contrarian & Aquarian - My sentiments are rather aligned with Contrarian. Even if Clif Droke was writing about it the same way and was rebuffed by others, I can't think of any other outcome.

The official explanation of countering counterfeiting is more of an excuse, than a reason. Let's wait and see, though don't wait to exchange either green or peachy notes for true value - GOLD! cb2

CoBra(too)

(10/15/2003; 10:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110424)

Pech? Freudian Slip?

Should have read peach dollars, thouch Pech in German is pitch, or cobblers wax or even better as a synonym hard or bad luck!

Pick your meaning and go gold ... cb2

Pizz

(10/15/2003; 10:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110425)

Two Tier Currency?

Two senario's come to mind.

The US will have to nearly strip search every international passenger to keep old money out and new money within the country.

The US will have to search nearly every UPS, Fed Express, and US mail package both entering and leaving the country.

Everyone will have to set up secondary computer accounts for every dollar account in the world, and then try to police and put controls on the electronic accounts, unless they make old cash "unbankable".

Every contract in the world denominated in dollars will haved to be rewritten or modified by government decree. This might prove just a bit troublesome for multinationals. Think there might just be a tad bit of litigation?

And finally, they are going to have figure out how to do all the above WITH A MULTI-YEAR, STAGGERED ENTRY FOR 20'S, 50'S, THEN 100'S???

Now, the othedr senario would be that they can somehow accomplish all the above. That would mean that they have to have an easy way to track the money, such as some micro embedded chip or somesuch other high-tech tracking system.

IMHO, that would go over about as well for the world economy as a major asteroid impact, which would only be the second loudest noise ever heard by man, as the dollar crash that would ensue would definately be the loudest.

Doesn't speak to much for any type of orderly transition, realignment, or anything survivable under our current definition of civilization.

The US can't manage it's economy, that's a given, but a two tier currency would be the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with all the bullets in the gun. . . .

Pizz

White Hills

(10/15/2003; 11:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110426)

testing

White Hills

(10/15/2003; 11:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110427)

Peach Dollars

I have to subscribe to Aquarians statement about being ignorant of the whole subject so I will throw this out here to see what comes back. I do think that the 20 bill is a test to see what the acceptance is going to be and what if any problems pop up. It would seem to me that with the amount of dollars floating around the world it would create quite a problem if it ever decided to come home'sort of speak. The inflation that would come with it would wreck the economy to say the least I figure the plan would be to repatriate the overseas dollar in a gradual way in order to be able to somehow manage the inflation that is coming, Once the peach dollar is in place inside the US watch out because anything could happen with the greenbacks, both out of the country and in safe deposit boxes and under the matress. It would seem to me though that those holding Dollars now would get really nervous about the currency change and might begin to protect their wealth by selling the dollar and buying either Euros, gold or any other asset not dollar denominated. IN OTHER WORDS the last thing I believe is that this is all about conterfieting. All these thoughts of mine may be wrong but there is something going down , any ideas? White Hills

Great Albino Bat

(10/15/2003; 12:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110428)

White Hills, Pizz: about peach dollars....

The new peach $20 dollar bill is certainly not about counterfeiting, in GAB's opinion.

What it is about, we have yet to see.

A two-tier system implies the prior or simultaneous death of the dollar as reserve currency, no doubt about it.

Two-tier systems don't work and never have worked. Eventually they are abandoned, after much loss of time and national energy. Belgian well described the useless struggle of France to isolate itself monetarily. What caused the isolation, was interventions by government in the economy, including "monetary management" which distorted prices and produced insufficiency in exports. Instead of abandoning the interventions favoring special political groups, governments typically insist on going on with them, until everything goes so wrong, that devaluation takes place and finally the government realizes it has to change its policies and adjust to realities.

This what would happen to the US, if it tried to implement a two-tier system, with exchange controls.

By the way, if the new bills are already in circulation, then you can be quite sure some of them are already outside the US.

The dollar is absolutely doomed. That was decreed on August 15, 1971, when Pres. Nixon "closed the gold window".

But, the consequences take time in arriving. 32 years is a long time for humans, but a mere instant in the view of History.

The War on Gold: gold will win, inevitably, because gold is reality. Be sure you are on the winning side, as world events are speeding up.

The GAB

fobjob

(10/15/2003; 12:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110429)

Smuggling

Something which seems not to have been mentioned here as the reason for a dual currency is to gain control over the illicit transfer of cash out of the country to pay for drugs, and the influx of cash to pay terrorist agents, and other mischief...that would force smugglers to shift to precious metals, which would help justify TPTB to crack down on that thing near and dear to our hearts...just thought I would add a new level of paranoia to the ravings here....

Aquarian

(10/15/2003; 13:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110430)

Peach Dollars

thanks for everyone's response to my question--not that i understand any better what's going on--i guess i'm not alone.

here's another one:

is there any other difference between the peach & green dollars other than color?

i mean, so far the Fed/treasury has not stipulated that the new currency must remain inside the US and will not be exchangable abroad, right?

if the only difference is the color--what makes the peach dollars different than when they changed the design of the $100 (and subsequently the 20,10 & 5 denominations) for the purposes of counterfitting?

Paper Avalanche

(10/15/2003; 13:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110431)

Just saw a story on Indian Futures Markets and now it's gone

I just saw a story on a gold related site that said India was considering opening two additional futures exchanges for a total of three with the one that just opened a week or so ago (after being closed for 32 years).

Now that story is has completely disappeared from said site.

I was about to cut and past it to comment on the forum. If true, the battle appears to be intesifying IMO. I think that you are witnessing an extension of the cold war between Russia and the US via the financial markets. Russia announces Euro for gold and the Anglo / US faction counters with new paper gold controls in previous British colonies.

Interesting times indeed.

Take care.

PA

Cavan Man

(10/15/2003; 13:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110432)

Paper Avalanche

Don't forget the Indian people are VERY FOND of Sovereigns and I'm not talking about "Monarchs".

To the typical Indian, anything less than 24K is "steel".

Thanks....astute observation on bifurcation in world affairs....a trend in the making...CM

donnemuir

(10/15/2003; 13:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110433)

@Aquirian "Peach Money"

I find a certain irony in the color on the new 20; the number 20 on the face of the tissue looks gold to me.

You may have hit on something in your question about the "new" bills we have been using for the past couple of years.

The counterfeiting smoke screen is good and dramatic press; but like so much else that comes from the government it is an easy answer to hard questions.

I think this is not the last of the changes in FRN design...before the government finally disavows everything in circulation except the latest issue of the time. And further it is possible that the final issue will be made "dear" and tied to gold in some way. i.e. the Euro.

Sort of like a federal government Chapter 11 reorganization.

VanRip

(10/15/2003; 14:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110434)

latest from the Fed

http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34∈=business&cat=us_economySnips from the latest Fed report. This is the kind of information that most people I know talk about over lunch. Leads to what stocks to buy, what new thing to purchase down the road. Fed sure knows how to keep it simple, how to spin it.

Of course, no mention of the effect on the economy of the war, no mention of anything negative, no downers etc.

(snips)

� In its latest survey of business conditions around the country, the Fed said its 12 regional banks were reporting a number of signs that the recovery from the 2001 recession was finally beginning to gain momentum.

� Ten of the Fed's 12 districts reported stronger economic activity, according to information gathered in September and early October while the other two -- Boston and Cleveland -- reported economic activity was mixed but at least not declining.

� On balance, the pace of economic expansion has picked up since the last report," the Fed concluded in its latest "Current Economic Conditions" survey.

� Some of the brightest news in the Fed survey came in the area of manufacturing, with a number of districts reporting signs of a rebound. Manufacturers have been the hardest hit sector of the economy with factory employment down for 39 consecutive months, bringing total job losses to 2.7 million workers.

� But the Fed said both the Atlanta and Chicago districts reported a rebound in orders for machine tools while computer chip makers in the San Francisco region and high-tech industries in the Dallas region both reported increased demand.

Shapur

(10/15/2003; 14:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110435)

peach dollar mumbo jumbo

Two tiered systems are not new--for example in the korean war there were script changes within the army from red to blue, etc., to keep the enemy from duplicating the script illegally. The old script would be exchanged for new and the old would them be destroyed.

The world knows these tricks--read most any paperback from the 1970's on the dollar problem and you could read a section or two mentioning this possible future for the dollar--the old "switcheroo". I don't believe that the US government is all of a sudden going to freeze greenbacks out of redemption.

I do not think either that the 20 dollar bill is a test to see if americans will accept the new colored bill. Americans could care less, no one is not going to use a new 20 ---so I don't buy the arguement that this is a test for acceptance.

The chinese and the japanese need the american markets to support their economies. If America goes down---who is going to absorb and buy the 40 billion a month in product that we import??? The chinese economy would crash and the japanese economy would crash too. We are all in this together. So its going to be a slow process of moving the money from currency to currency in order to balance out the risks.

I don't have the magic answer---most paper dollars out side our borders are crumpled up in the pockets of third world peasants--in use as dollarized economies. The big dollars are in the form of treasuries and US bonds held in accounts as computer entries.

If the dollars start coming "home" as some fear then they will be changed into another domestic currency at the hometown money changer window at a deep discount and then bundled together and fed to a bank that will buy a treasury with it. The dollarized third world countries will be the last to do anything and those dollars will be the most discounted.

There has got to be a new dollar eventually. That will happen once the current situation plays it self out.

So the peach dollar mumbo jumbo is a sideshow not a trigger or a factor--just another piece of worthless paper with a 20 stamp on it that buys less food and energy related items every month.

Paper Avalanche

(10/15/2003; 14:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110436)

@ Cavan Man

I believe that we are witnessing the clash of the finacial titans.

Reagrding world affairs, thanks for the compliment. It's easy spotting these things when you are a conspiracy theorist (smile).

PA

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/15/2003; 14:39:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110437)

Page Update!

Mr Gresham

(10/15/2003; 14:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110438)

Fed liabilities

Just to throw a note in here on the paper currency changeover: Those 20s, old and new, are "Federal Reserve Notes", right? Liabilities of the Fed. In fact, the 650 or so billion (haven't checked lately) in paper "money" is the Fed's major item on that side of the balance sheet, along with, oh, 40-something billion in reserve deposits it holds for the banks.

Its main assets are: Treasury debt, and gold (which is marked down by almost 90 percent.)

In a crunch, will the Fed attempt to save its balance sheet (so it can save its chosen buddies in banking) by maneuvers on either, or both, sides of its balance sheet?

Sure would help to start all over with almost no liabilities. Wouldn't we ALL love to...

CoBra(too)

(10/15/2003; 15:38:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110439)

Sage Words -

By John Brimelow - extracted from todays MIDAS:

In a talk given today in London endorsing the conventional wisdom that the new Washington Accord sales level will only be modestly higher (100 tonnes), Rothschild's David Holmes noted that gold as a share of Central Bank reserves has fallen from 62% in 1980 through 33% in 1990 to 13% in 2000. The decline in the 90s was mainly due to the refusal of Central Banks to increase their holdings in line with overall reserve growth. This was the objective of a little-known agreement engineered by the Americans at the time of the Smithsonian Accords. In retrospect this was a very heavy blow to gold: on which, however, cannot be repeated.

JB

... Cannot br repeated ... cb2

21mabry

(10/15/2003; 15:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110440)

Central Banks

IMHO if the U.S. central bank began aquiring gold it would spook the paper markets NYSE,NASDAQ,etc.Even if the major central banks wanted to buy bullion it would be admitting the scam they have been running.I cant see them buying gold.Except Asian and Middle East banks.Good post Cb2.21

LeSin

(10/15/2003; 16:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110441)

Trial Balloons & Gorbi - Re Iraq Mess

Belgian - Yes, I totally agree with your comments and observations. Gorbachov is not a man to be trusted or any organisation that he presently or in the future may represent.

Your other comment "that war is an industry" is spot on. Sad, but however true.

We continue our wait and see stance and lood forward to the outcome of "free-gold". As BB often says these are interesting times.

Cheers "S"

Aristotle

(10/15/2003; 16:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110442)

Thanks for the link, CoBra

CoBra(too) (10/15/03; 08:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 110420)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031015/economy_wellink_gold_1.html

= = = = = =

Seems like we always hear about the puny sales, but nothing about the papery operations which matters most.

I'd gladly *GLADLY* accept continuing or additional sales, especially if *IF* it came as a necessary (smooth transitionary) tradeoff IN CONJUNCTION with a revised policy Agreement to unwind and completely CEASE all future participation by these central banks in Gold leasing/swaps/lending.

The way the current Agreement stands, these operations were simply to be curbed to *existing* levels.

Gotta wonder how much more time/Gold the bullion banking weasels will be given by the CBs to neatly close their books and leave the game.

If the paper expansion in India is any indication, perhaps the CBs are already close to hanging them out to dry and the BBs are scrapping for new angles to stay in the flow. Rascally weasels!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Belgian

(10/15/2003; 17:55:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110443)

COBRA/ARI

About central banks and their reserves : We haven't been talking, extensively, about the purposes of these reserves (currencies + Gold).
Wish, someone could educate me on this particular matter.

The competitive currency depreciations (and expansions) must have a limit, somewhere, sometime !?
I'm getting tha feeling that everyone, within this confetti race, is waiting for the other to blink first. What if those billions of producing people manage to neutralize Western pricing-power and paralyse what is left of the western industrial production abilities !?

The decades' ongoing fiat depreciation race could end abruptly with the installation of western fiat and price-hyperinflation that would affect global trade (tradeflows).

Then a gigantic maneuvering would start with the existing reserves (repricing-revaluation) as to reverse the depreciation race into the opposite direction.

The remaining Gold, as a share of the CB's reserves, would be revaluated and the state who has the most of gold reserves would have the strongest (most stable) currency.

Some day, one's economic achievements (performance) must be translated into a form of tangible wealth as ultimate confirmation of what has been achieved.

Our western reserve basis is being eroded, whilst in the east, reserves (currency and gold) are building. Central Banks cannot remain accomodative to the politicians up until the reserves are completely out of proportion.

When the dollar (the US) keeps on declining in performance due to the impossibility of generating enough profits as a consequence of declining pricing power...this reserve currency will be percieved as outgoing and become increasingly useless in global trade settlements. I dont mind settling any trade in any currency as long as there are substantial and reliable, qualitative profits.
When it becomes increasingly difficult to compete for these profits, I want settlement in a numeraire with more (at least) intrinsic value. Nobody goes economic without the prospect of profit.

Politicians will increasingly turn to CENTRAL BANKERS as to demand "other" solutions than the old recepies. How are people going to react on massive devaluations + hyper price inflations after such a long period of complacent prosperity ??? Central Bankers will have to come up with something new, than blunt endless devaluation, as to dampen the rise in unemployment.

At present, our western world, remains convinced that economic expansion will come back as it did in the past cyclic periods. I'm afraid that the China factor is going to make it really different this time, while the dollar remains stuck in the oil rich Arabian sands.

Where do I have it wrong ? TIA.

The Invisible Hand

(10/15/2003; 18:24:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110444)

Paper Rule of Law

Aristotle said in part in yesterday's msg#: 110359
The euro could in fact be called honest money, if you like. That is, as honest and as trustworthy as the Rule of Law that stands in the background to enforce contracts.
But as we know, Rule of Law today is not one and the same predicable Rule of Law tomorrow. It blows around a bit due to political will. Therefore, we'll always want honest Gold property used as our core Wealth Savings. We'll own it to compensate for our human inabilities to provide ourselves with a PERFECT Money.

The Rule of Law means, in the first place, the absolute supremacy or predominance of regular law as opposed to the influence of arbitrary power, and excludes the existence of arbitrariness, of prerogative, or even of wide discretionary authority on the part of government
( note at the start of Chapter VI of Hayek "The Road to Serfdom", The University of Chicago Press, 1944, p.72, which chapter is available at http://www.chariscorp-wordgems.com/wealth.hayek.rule.html
who refers to A.V. Dicey, "Law of the Constitution", London, 1914, 8th ed.
http://www.constitution.org/cmt/avd/law_con.htm )

The problem with the English word "law" is that it means both Recht/droit/dirittto and Gesetz/loi/lege, the first concept referring to something stable, the second to something that can be changed at will by the politicians.

The solution would then apparently be to have recourse to the notion of Rechtsstaat/Etat de Droit even that concept recognises only the supremacy of Gesetz/loi/lege.

The Sophists (5th C BC) have moreover indicated that the question concerns not the supremacy of either but the fact whether de 'law" can be criticised.

We would have thus three concepts
Gesetz/loi/lege, Recht/droit/dirittto & the ability to criticize

Perhaps a parallellism can be established with
paper gold, euro & gold.

Is this reasoning valid?

The Invisible Hand

(10/15/2003; 18:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110445)

please read

The solution would then apparently be to have recourse to the notion of Rechtsstaat/Etat de Droit, BUT even that concept recognises only the supremacy of Gesetz/loi/lege.

instead of: The solution would then apparently be to have recourse to the notion of Rechtsstaat/Etat de Droit even that concept recognises only the supremacy of Gesetz/loi/lege.

DryWasher

(10/15/2003; 18:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110446)

Lessons From the California Recall

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst101303.htm
From Ron Paul's current weekly column, linked above, and right on target.

SNIPS

"If the scenario on the west coast seems familiar, it's because we've seen it before in Washington. Congress spends far too much regardless of revenues. The fundamental difference is that the State of California, unlike the federal government, cannot simply print money to pay its obligations."

"Federal politicians, however, can use government printing presses to sweep economic problems under the rug and hide the effects of deficit spending- at least for a time. Our fiat monetary system permits politicians to spend money now to win votes and fund popular programs, while delaying the harms until later. When the federal government monetizes debt by magically
paying its bills with newly printed money, the economic effects are diffused throughout the economy. Over time, however, we all pay for the increased number of dollars in circulation. Prices go up, personal savings are eroded, and the dollar becomes weaker against other currencies."

Cometose

(10/15/2003; 19:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110447)

the bond market / Jim Sinclair

Did you see what JIM saw on the BOND CHART??????
It's superimposed on a Map of Asia / CHINA and George BUSH is over there on the Map in ASIA hitchiking trying to get a RIDE....

HE SAID and I'm transliterating a little ......It's 1987 all over again and the BOND MARKET IS SPEAKING VOLUMES about what lies right around the corner ......He also says some interesting things about GOLD and the present chart is compared to a BREAK OUT CHART ON COPPER THAT HAPPENED A WHILE BACK....

"A watch pot never boils" that's why I have a job and two mistresses..........ONE MISTRESS ia a SPIRITUAL VISION QUEST and the other is watching these markets seethe....
OH GOD I LOVE THIS LIFE..............and thank YOU for the INTERNET.....

Aristotle

(10/15/2003; 20:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110448)

Dealing with the world we're dealt

Hi Invisible Hand

It occurred to me quite a while ago that it's more miserable standing out in the cold rain with *thoughts* of a perfect house/shelter -- like, "Dang it! I've spent my time in the wilderness mastering the art of splitting hairs, but here I am out in the open and here comes another thunderstorm, again!"

Thankfully I came to my senses. Life's been better ever since I picked up an axe and just started chopping down trees, swinging wildly like a barbarian. As it turns out, my log house (metaphorically speaking) is not Perfect, per se, but it's a/THE *perfectly human* solution to a distinctly human problem.

Soooooo... for example, I don't worry anymore about petty things like reaching a universally PURE definintion of inflation for one and all. I've seen a lot of people get themselve in a twist, insisting that it must stand for one thing (supply) over another (prices.) I say, "What's the big deal????!" As long as I can UNDERSTAND what the user means, that's all that matters -- that we communicate effectively, and then move forward from there.

Not to be splitting hairs, in yesterday's comments I referred to Rule of Law not in a perfect Devine sense, but rather in the sense of the crude log house that does gives us (we humans) shelter from the rain. Specifically, in the sum total of the judicial system of courts that interpret the local ordinances and state and federal laws that are constantly being revised through political will (by our duly elected human representatves)
under the generally accepted framework of our Constitution and (gasp) its own assortment of amendments.

Building on my thoughts of yesterday, if money were somehow "perfect" (and what the hell does/would that mean, anyway?) we probably wouldn't individually need to own much Gold (as a compensation.) But as things now stand, with respect to the euro as I understand it, in my opinion there is no need for the abomination of bullion banking/derivatization that papers over Gold ownership property rights with layers and layers of price-distorting ambiguity.

Belgian, you asked where you might "have it wrong." You've got a far better political head on your shoulders, so I'm probably not the one to ask. From where I stand, you've always gotten it all so right it's spooky. A handy talent to have for Halloween is only two weeks away!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(10/15/2003; 20:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110449)

Oh yeah...

Prior to the point where I moved on to Belgian, I completely forgot to wrap up with this assessment for Invisible Hand.

"Gesetz/loi/lege, Recht/droit/dirittto & the ability to criticize
****a parallellism with****
paper gold, euro & gold"

Very clever!! Well said! Or perhaps you were already able to infer this agreement from my other remarks.

Gold. The ability to stay dry while criticizing both the storm AND the leaky cabin! --- Ari

cockerel1

(10/15/2003; 21:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110450)

Syria next?

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/Printer&cid=1066113923328 Pentagon official: US may take action against Syria

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Associated Press Oct. 14, 2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pentagon adviser Richard Perle said Tuesday that the recent Israeli attack on an alleged training camp for Palestinian militants in Syria was long overdue and that he would not rule out U.S. military action against the Arab state.

Perle, a close adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, spoke at a Jerusalem conference of conservatives from the United States and Israel.

"President Bush transformed the American approach to terrorism on Sept. 11, 2001, when he said he will not distinguish between terrorists and the states who harbor them," Perle said.

"I was happy to see that Israel has now taken a similar step in responding to acts of terror that originate in Lebanese territory by going to the rulers of Lebanon in Damascus."

Israel has said the training camp it targeted in an Oct. 5 airstrike was used by Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian militant group that had carried out a suicide bombing in the Israeli port city of Haifa two days earlier, killing 20 people.

Israel has accused Syria of allowing Palestinian militant groups to train and operate from its territory. The Israeli air strike was the first attack on Syrian soil in three decades.

Perle said he hoped the air strike reflected a new Israeli policy similar to the Bush doctrine.

"We have problems with the Syrians who continue to support terrorism. We have to find a way to get them to stop," Perle later told The Associated Press.

Asked whether this would include possible U.S. military action against Syria, he said: "Everything's possible."

Perle said it would not be difficult to commit forces to Syria despite heavy U.S. troop commitments to Iraq and the Korean peninsula, along with a continued presence in areas such as the Balkans and Liberia.

"Syria is militarily very weak," he said.

Perle stepped down from his position as chair of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board this spring, following allegations that he had used his position with the Pentagon to further business deals in Singapore and the United States. He is still a member of the board.

Perle said that the Bush administration's "road map" to peace between Israel and the Palestinians by 2005 had failed, but that he supported the ideas Bush introduced in a speech on June 24, 2002.

In that speech, Bush outlined his vision for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and called for a change in Palestinian leadership.

Comment:

With the U.S. $ tanking, where is the money coming from to pay for these campaigns? Syria is not a military power, so any organised campaign should be relatively short. It's what comes after that gets to be messy and costly. Is this going to be another way to keep "joe-six-pack" from concentrating on the sorry state of the economy? Is this another way to increase the employment numbers? Does anyone have any answers as to why this would be a necessary situation other than the obvious smoke screens?

(10/15/2003; 21:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110451)

Two Tier Currency?

It seems like we already had a two tiered dollar. It was redeemable in gold at a fixed value for foreign central banks from Bretton Woods to Nixon closing the gold window. It was not redeemable for US.

Druid

(10/15/2003; 21:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110452)

Inflation

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/inflation.htm"It was the case that the price level in 1929 was not much different, on net, from what it had been in 1800. But, in the two decades following the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, the consumer price index in the United States nearly doubled. And, in the four decades after that, prices quintupled. Monetary policy, unleashed from the constraint of domestic gold convertibility, has allowed a persistent over issuance of money. As recently as a decade ago, central bankers, having witnessed more than a half-century of chronic inflation, appeared to confirm that a fiat currency was inherently subject to excess." - Chairman Alan Greenspan Before the Economic Club of New York, New York City December 19, 2002 "Issues for Monetary Policy" (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021219/)

Read that last quote again. It states there was zero inflation for 129 years from 1800 to 1929. But, once the gold standard was abanded there was no restraint on the creation of money and debt out of thin air by the banking system - - and inflation soared, as shown by the chart above.

Druid: When you hear all the mainstream noise about inflation vs. deflation, the above quote and statement says it all. Monetary inflation is the cause.

Aristotle

(10/15/2003; 21:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110453)

Decoding my final metaphorical meaning

Ability to... "stay dry while criticizing" ==equates with==> "living *with*" etc etc...

Gold. Get you some. It's about time. It's about life. --- Ari

steady

(10/15/2003; 21:50:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110454)

honest money

from idea to ideal
watch it happen its going to be real
get priced in now while gold is still a deal
its for free some say its a steal
dont be like the sheeple
belive in
gold and silver honest money for honest people.

Aristotle

(10/15/2003; 22:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110455)

steady, a question, if I may?

I'm curious about your viewpoint.

Gold is money? What is it about Gold that makes it money?

Can we also say that money is Gold? Exclusively? If so, then why the extra word for the same thing?

Before the first human ever bought a fish from his buddy who caught two, even before the time that T-Rex nabbed an easy meal of some sorry four-legged critter who was temporarily mesmerized by the yellow pebbles glittering in the stream, what feature arose out of the primordial ooze that invested yellow atoms with the mandate of "moneyness" as you'd have it? Or is it possible that Gold is Gold, whereas money is an invention of mankind that came along somewhat very much later in the grand scheme?

There didn't used to be derivatives, either. What gentle and patient help should we offer someone who goes about saying "Gold is derivatives."????

I certainly can't stop my neighbor from using his saw to drive nails, but I can sure step in and show him how nicely a hammer works. That way, if I ever need to cut wood, there's a good chance I'll be able to borrow a suitable tool from him that hasn't been destroyed in other practices.

Just bein' a good neighbor.

Gold. It is what it is. Get you some, and know the size and shape of your savings. --- Ari

Chris Powell

(10/15/2003; 23:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110456)

ROB-TV's interview with Jim Sinclair

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1727A transcript of ROB-TV's October 14 interview with
Tan Range CEO Jim Sinclair, who predicts that
gold will surpass $400 this month.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Great Albino Bat

(10/15/2003; 23:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110457)

"Simple solution to a complex problem"

Simple solutions to complex problems. Cutting through the garbage to get to the bottom of things. This isn't the political way to do things - politicians aren't interested in solutions anyway, they are interested in their own bacon, first, second and always.

Who was the Danish physicist that calculated, quite accurately, the power of the first A-bomb tested in N.M? This genius cut up some pieces of paper and let them float to the ground while the shock wave arrived where he was, miles away from ground zero. The papers fluttered away a few inches. From the approximate mass of the papers, and their deviation, he calculated the intensity of the shock wave and the power of the bomb.

Apply the same reasoning to the problem of NOT ENOUGH GOLD:

John Brimelow in today's "Midas" at www.lemetropolecafe.com:

"In a talk given today in London endorsing the conventional wisdom that the new Washington Accord sales level will only be modestly higher (100 tonnes), Rothschild's David Holmes noted that gold as a share of Central Bank reserves has fallen from 62% in 1980 through 33% in 1990 to 13% in 2000. The decline in the 90s was mainly due to the refusal of Central Banks to increase their holdings in line with overall reserve growth. This was the objective of a little-known agreement engineered by the Americans at the time of the Smithsonian Accords. In retrospect this was a very heavy blow to gold: on which, however, cannot be repeated."

Very interesting commentary. It has already been posted here earlier, I believe, but bears reading again.

No. 1: "It cannot be repeated". I guess not.

No. 2: So how do we increase gold reserves? We can't, there isn't the gold available. It's just not there. Nothing to do but:

No. 3: CBs increase the price of gold. The reserves of the Central Banks are reported at the going price of PAPER GOLD. Now we all know that paper gold price has been manipulated to hold the possible true market price down.

So, this has had the effect of contracting the value of gold reserves, from the 62% of total which is mentioned for 1980, to 13% of total reserves in 2000. The price of gold has been kept down, while dollar reserves have soared due to the trade deficit of the US.

Now 62/13 is pretty near 5. That's a revaluation of FIVE TIMES the present paper gold price, to regain a 65% share of total reserves for gold.

Five times a conservative $360 is...$1,800 US.

Question: if all CBs have the same gold they had in 1980, this might fly. In fact, it may not be far from what will actually happen: "we all devalue together" - it fits the spirit of the age.

However, does the US still have the gold it had in 1980? No one knows. Maybe they have been selling it off, fighting the inevitable. Like the Brits, that frittered away billions in reserves trying to NOT devalue the pound, back in 1992. (Soros made a billion in a couple of days, calling the B of E's bluff). The Brits finally gave in, after losing enormous reserves.

This is the same story, in this case with US FED fighting to NOT devalue the dollar, against the strongest money, GOLD.

Don't think CB bankers are too smart. They have spent their lives politicking to get the job, and never have given a thought to what they are doing. They are all "chicken" about individual thinking. Count on it. And Alan conveniently has filed away everything he was supposed to have learned at Ayn Rand's knee. (And it wasn't even a pretty knee!)

The GAB says, $2,000/oz will be seen. The policies will remain the same, and then, $2,500, $3,000 und so weiter...
Institutions are not like clocks, that can be rewound and set to work again. Once an institution collapses, it is never "rewound" or reformed. It is junked. Thus re-barbarization takes place. Civilizations take thousands of years to form.

The GAB

Druid

(10/16/2003; 00:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110458)

Great Albino Bat (10/15/03; 23:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110457)

"Who was the Danish physicist that calculated, quite accurately, the power of the first A-bomb tested in N.M?"

Druid: GAB, was it Neils Bohr?

Belgian

(10/16/2003; 01:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110459)

Good morning....

Ari, you are definitely is spiritual top condition ! I enjoyed your methaforical delicassies (wisdom) with admiration . Please, stay with us !

GAB : Gold (wealth) reserves should function as collateral for healthy debt that encumbers the fiat numeraire, under any circumstances. In a " free gold market " the gold reserve collateral would indicate, for all to see, to what extend fiat is encumbered by its managers.

The evolution of less gold reserves can only lead to a higher valuation as to become proportionate to the rising debts against declining economic activity.

There is no compromise possible on Gold's inevitable revaluation. Or Gold remains heavier contained than ever before (shortages-availability) or revalues completely (into the thousands) as to compensate for many decades of containment (Unfreedom).

Cockerell : Unfortunately the whole and real truth about the geo-political power-fights cannot, can/will never, be revealed for the general public. Much too ugly...inhumane !!!

ji : Hi, wellcomed gold compagnon.
I'm interpreting the 1971 event somewhat different. Before 1971 there was a two tier dollar system : Internal US$ not redeemable into Gold and an expanding external dollar that had to be redeemable in order to be able of expanding.
Than the expanding dollar ran out of Gold and the dollar standard was conveniently accepted. From 1971 onwards, the dollar reserve was already on the path of self-defense and waiting for the confrontation with its alternative (possibly the euro and its new gold-concept)

The next step for the dollar might be to retreat completely from reserve-responsibility with the loss of the remaining gold as to come in line with the general 13% as share of reserves.
The eventual next two tier dollar system might be worked out for a dollar as an ordinary currency without reserve status. Will see.

Aristotle

(10/16/2003; 01:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110460)

Belgian

Thanks for the invitation to stay, but can we be sure I'm not actually doing more harm than good? Look how many people must've choked on their breakfast the other morning. A cold silence was all that joined us as we enjoyed our "unobstructed view of the horizon."

How's this? Maybe I should go back to the basics. Back to the simple satisfaction of the Personal Gold Standard. The joy of working like a slave with the dignity (and comfortable savings) of a king. Serving the monthly budget and rolling the remainder into Gold. No stock, no bond, no 401k retirement plan gives the same *realization* of accomplishment and reward for ones own hard work as does a nicely growing pile of Gold through a lifetime. A liberating feeling of security and calm satisfaction is icing on the cake. With Gold we can have it, and eat it, too.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

DummyANI

(10/16/2003; 03:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110461)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Black Blade

(10/16/2003; 05:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110462)

Money used to be backed by gold. Now it is backed by the promises of central bankers. Are these worth less than they were?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=2135349
Snippit:

None of the world's major currencies is especially alluring; for one reason or another governments in all three might want them to fall. Of course, they cannot all fall against each other. They can, however, fall against something largely unloved by those under the age of 50, and famously dismissed by Keynes as a "barbarous relic": gold.

All currencies are backed by something. When the world was on the gold standard, that something was the yellow metal: the value of each pound sterling, dollar or French franc was determined by the (fixed) amount of gold that the central bank agreed to deliver against it. Now those currencies are backed by something altogether less tangible: central bankers� promises that the currencies will maintain their value. Quite probably, these promises are not worth as much as they were.

But hard money can be an unpleasant medicine, and the problems facing central bankers have not gone away since Mr Volker's day. Inflation has shown up in more than the price of carrots: it has also pushed up the prices of shares and property. For understandable reasons, central bankers have been slow to spot and prick asset bubbles. Thus have they swelled and popped in America and Japan in recent years, leaving mountains of debt in their wake, and weakening the credibility of central bankers as they try to control economies by tweaking the short-term rate of interest.

It used to be that gold perked up only when inflation did. But perhaps central bankers� lack of credibility explains why the price of gold has been rising even as deflationary pressures have mounted. It now fetches some $370 an ounce, down from its peak of nearly $390 last month, but way up from its price in the late 1990s, when it dipped to $253.

Black Blade: Indeed, currency is backed by nothing but empty promises that cannot be fulfilled and are essentially meaningless. Who in their right mind has ever trusted a banker anyway? As the old saying goes: "Promises are made to be broken".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/16/2003; 07:26:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110463)

Put a solid foundation under your portfolio with bullion priced to move, shipping free on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

CoBra(too)

(10/16/2003; 07:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110464)

IMF, WB - Instruments of Hegemony

http://heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,7379994%255E1702,00.htmlMahatir said.

I hope the old gentleman will stay as outspoken after he'll step down and retire next month. He is probably one of the greatest leaders SE-Asia ever produced. cb2W

contrarian

(10/16/2003; 07:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110465)

Shapur--peach dollar

Thanks Shapur for your and everyone else's input. It was just a theory, but I now kind of think the whole two currency thing is a sideshow.

I've concluded it would be hard to imagine that there could be a level of intelligence at the Fed or Treasury that could think up a scheme to devalue external versus internal dollars--or be so forward thinking to come up with any such thing.

Rather, the government bureaucrats at these agencies--and let's face it, people who end up at government jobs versus corporate jobs have never been known for their mental sharpness--are simply muddling along, following a conventional script. Maybe they really are trying to discourage counterfeiting.

The problem with conspiracy theories is that they assume that the government has a level of intelligence that it really doesn't and never has had. Thinking of the present administration, I think it's just operating off the seat of its pants, coping with the crises cascading off of poorly thought-out decision.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/16/2003; 07:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110466)

HOW TO Build a Foundation...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Belgian

(10/16/2003; 08:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110467)

@Ari

Gold Advocates do remain very tolerant and with lots of understanding for the dullness of the Gold-message, perceived as such, by most (if not all) *modern*, young, financial adventurers !!! Emphasis on "modern" and "adventure".

Dull boring Gold, out of competition with blood-clotting, exciting dot-bomb, stocks plus derivative-runs...roller coasters...lotteries...paper crazes...
Cooney island...Vegas casino or the silence of Gold ?

Your msg#110359 was so immensely condensed, that 90% is not (correctly) understandable for any Gold novice. Note, that I'm still rereading it myself. But the FOA-snippits that TIH posted at the same time, helped a lot.

The Gold containers know exactly how ignorant people are and how easely the sheeple are mis-leaded. ALL majorities are always right...up until reality says they had it completely wrong...all the time.

It will NOT be different with Gold. The Gold Revaluation will take ALL paper-smarties BY SURPRISE ! No dingdong bell will sound the alarm. Inconvenient, isn't it Sir Ari ?

CoBra(too)

(10/16/2003; 08:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110468)

Really pathetic!

http://www.diepresse.at/Artikel.aspx?channel=&ressort=ee&id=382738KH Grasser, Austrian minister of finance rvisited.

Seems the vested interest is his inside knowledge that gold is bound to go up.

Aren't we all culprits, as well (:>) cb2

Clink!

(10/16/2003; 08:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110469)

@ contrarian re conspiracy theories

I think it is probably very dangerous to assume that just because bureaucrats are maybe neither the most imaginative nor the broadest-informed of people, their actions are not motivated, directly or indirectly, by people that most definitely ARE ! A very obvious example of this is all those little one liner clauses to the benefit of minority interests tucked into discrete corners of virtually every bill passing through the House and Senate. I was doing some research some years ago into the act which outlawed cannibis in the US. It turns out that hemp is an incredibly useful industrial product, but it was putting too much pressure on the producers of newsprint from wood pulp. The answer ? Get all hemp banned because some strains can be used for narcotics. The fact that smoking most hemp will have about the same effect as smoking grass (the stuff that lawns are made of !) was adroitly ignored. The phrase that sticks in my mind from the essay ran along the lines of 'never for one instant believe that laws are made for the officially stated reasons'. Another example closer to home at the Round Table was the creation of the Federal Reserve. Was it billed as a mechanism of wealth transfer from the general masses to the banking community and government? Nope, but that's what we have.

Returning to the question of the new notes, I guess that having lived through regular note changes in different countries which were always greeted with a quiet yawn, I have always been amazed at how ANCIENT the FRNs look, pretty much as in 1913 ? And the difficulty of having to READ the denomination instead of just looking at the color strikes me as being a little retrograde too. I would have thought the AARP and organizations for the blind (well, partially blind) must have been objecting for years. So all I say is that its about time for a new look !

Another reason for not fearing the new notes is that changes of a sinister type are always implemented overnight, so that they have happened before people can react. Remember the bank 'holidays', the gold confiscation and the closing of the gold window.

C!

Cometose

(10/16/2003; 09:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110470)

Strange Signs

THERE seem to be some pricing anamolies on the indexes this morning ,,,, highly irregular and a most infrequent occurence....

DOw usually trades at 8 points per the S&P ...which means that dow down 72 means S&P should be down 9 .....usually all the programs trade together without discrimination on an index weighted basis......

Looks like someone outside is hitting the DOW? Or is it that the S&P and the Nasdaq indexes are in denial this morning and therefore not moving in sympathy with the DOW...
Or is it that one of the components in the DOW is today falling apart........One would think that the components in the Nasdaq should be collapsing.....
I suspect we are about to recieve some bad information about some Company or other element that is going to cause a fallout ....not because this is earnings season.....but because this is the season that it was decided upon to release this bad information to the public....and someone is already trading that information.....

It may be the CHineze sending a message prior to GEORGE BUSH"S visit...as well.....and a precursor of things to follow.....

He's proven he has no respect for HUMANKIND>>> and it's in the CHINESE' power to send GEORGE packing forever....by moving their economic pinky eversoslightly once........

Cometose

(10/16/2003; 09:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110471)

HUI

THe HUI (unhedged mining company index) is up strong this morning and it looks like in the next couple of days we can all expect this index to cross its most recent high of 210 ;
Are these GOLD STOCKS leading indicators of the metals marktes? If so this might be a good time to anticipate and accumulate .....so we don't deteriorate........as the PAPER BURNS IN THE BONFIRE OF " the vanities" .....
watch for a DERIVITIVES fireworks display which will most assuredly accompany this action......

It's already known that the dollar is likely going to fall .
Mr SInclair thinks the bond market is going to go and that is going to bust the Equities markets right open.....

Pizz

(10/16/2003; 09:28:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110472)

Cometose

Re: Dow vs. S&P

Not strange, just a bit of math. The Dow has two components, IBM and Cat, that had bad earnings this am, with one down over 3 and the other down about 6. Due to splits etc, the Dow divisor is about .2, which means that for every 1 point drop in a dow stock, the average goes down about 5. So Cat and IBM account for about 45 points of the dow drop.

The S & P divisor is much larger and spread over 500 stocks, so the impact to the S& P is quite small.

To look at it another way, if Silver doubled in price to $10 bucks, would you expect gold to go to 800? Probably not, (but we can hope).

Pizz

Belgian

(10/16/2003; 10:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110473)

Unanimity on US - UN draft, reconstruction of Iraq :

15 for and zero against. Russia, France and Germany said Yes. Always expect the unexpected when "things" are "arranged" behind the curtains. Reference to Duisenberg...some states could buy/sell oil for euro !? Buttttttt,...no donations from Euroland with the exception of a symbolic homeopathic dosis.

steady

(10/16/2003; 10:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110474)

questions/answers

Aristotle im thinking ! answers when/if i figure em out!

Belgian

(10/16/2003; 11:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110475)

Cometose - COBRA

Cometose, be careful with your HUI-conclusions (projections). The Johannesburg Gold Index is still in a declining trend, most probably due to rand-strength.
Mining profits are extremely dependant on the evolution of the currency zone in wich they operate !!!
The predictive/anticipative value of goldmine prices FOR POG, must be taken with the necessary precaution (scepsis).

Many goldmines usually reach their highs before POG does. This to allow the insiders (price-movers) to distribute their mine paper to the Johnny come lately bugs. I see many new highs in goldmine land. Have they already anticipated the next wave of dollar decline of 14% (�/$=1,30 - 1,16 now)
and POG: 372$ + 14% = 424$ ?

What if $ and � decided to calm the forex markets down for some time. A reflective pause !? Will see...

Cobra : A *minister of finance* (Grasser) who has such a *speculative-gambling*, portfolio !? Am I a dull, boring arch conservative, when expressing my indignation about this man's personal investment choices as a finance minister ??? Wouldn't add too much insider knowledge to this. If Grasser should have accumulated Physical Gold...that would be something different. But he was /is, paper-gambling just like many other young, modern, financial adventurers.

CoBra(too)

(10/16/2003; 11:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110476)

@Belgian

I'm one of those daring adventurers, wandering off the trail to pick up some more (ir)-reality.

Though, my friend, don't worry about me, as I know what I'm doing - not the ultimate outcome, though!!! As my physical gold position is ever growing - please, let me have some fun too - it's more than due!

cb2

(10/16/2003; 12:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110477)

Richard Russell goes physical

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell101603.html"The safest long-term investment today" he says, for the "rich" or for the "brave" is gold bullion coins.

Cavan Man

(10/16/2003; 13:47:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110478)

Trichet

Euro "in safe hands" as Trichet confirmed as new ECB chief

16 October 2003

EU leaders gave their formal blessing Thursday to Jean-Claude Trichet as the new European Central Bank chief, with officials declaring that Europe's single currency would be in safe hands.

The former governor of the French central bank is due to replace Dutchman Wim Duisenberg for an eight-year term from November 1 following the green light from leaders of the 12 euro-zone nations at an EU summit here.

"I'm really confident the euro is in good hands at the top of the bank and also at the different levels of the bank," European Commission President Romano Prodi told reporters.

Trichet himself pledged to continue Duisenberg's legacy to preserve and strengthen the European monetary system when he takes over at the top of Frankfurt's Eurotower.

"I will ensure that I keep intact the remarkable heritage of my predecessor," he said of Duisenberg, who was the first president of the ECB and oversaw the introduction of the single European currency.

Belgian

(10/16/2003; 15:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110479)

@ COBRA(too)

Sure...goldmine adventures are fun. Watch, as an example, good old Guru, Sinclair, managing the value of his Tan(zania) Range exploration/mining ( x3 in less than one year) from his desktop. That is fun !

Nevertheless, Russel goes a bit Physical (thanks ge). But why is Richard R. suggesting that Physical Gold is the rich's man exclusivity ?

There is a "strange" calm on the markets before Bush is taking off for Asia.

Iraqi Shiites are preparing for massive manifestations as to undermine the occupying troops's moral that is reported to decline rapidly (suicides). The (small) coalition of the willing lives in hope that next week's donor-conference will mobilize foreign money and troops. Idle hope ? Continued stress/burden (exhaustion) for the dollar with no substantial oil-income in sight and a further detoriating situation in Iraq.

Very little, in dept analysis, is being done about the question WHY the dollar isn't collapsing (hasn't yet collapsed) under the heavy weight of all these burdens that under normal circumstances would already have killed any other currency without reserve status. All eventual attention (focus) on the dollar should be derived to China/Japan/EU-currencies as not co-operative for the globe's general well being (prosperity). The cancerous yearly twin deficits ($ 1 Trillion) almost represents as much as the total price (not value) of 150,000 tonnes of aboveground Gold ! 87 Billion $ for the occupying troops = 8,700 tonnes of Gold or more than the US' goldreserves !
Mama mia.

CoBra(too)

(10/16/2003; 15:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110480)

@ Belgian

My friend,

Yes I'm having fun again, seeing some of my efforts in the gold mining business coming to the production stage, while others are proving mineable deposits.

It's been the longest dry spell in exploration activity I've come across yet. You're lucky not having had to experience a meeting in London with the Rothschild guy, now Roger Guy, where the guy who's put together Porgera told him about the great propects of his Ghanean co. - yawn:

There's no way any bank will support any exploration for years ... and it opened my eyes- as I now know - these "guys" have been really inside!

Well, Belgian, times are a'changin' and I've some fun again!

The real message is to build your physical stash before having fun ... cb2

R Powell

(10/16/2003; 15:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110481)

Pizz

Did I hear silver at $10 !!! Thanks for the Dow components vs S+P index explanation and numbers. I shorted the e-mini this morning and was wondering if the down Dow was being offset by the not-so-down Nasdoggie and thus not very volatile S+P. I shouldn't fool with things I know little about.

You also said...

"To look at it another way, if Silver doubled in price to $10 bucks, would you expect gold to go to 800? Probably not, (but we can hope)."

Sounds good to me, bring it on! I hope you are finding country life to your liking.
Rich

Bulldog

(10/16/2003; 17:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110482)

Ari message #110460

Ari, I loved the referenced message, especially..."a liberating feeling of security and calm satisfaction".
As you know, I took your advice and started my own gold savings plan firstly in preparation for y2k and since. The pile grows and so does the peace of mind. Paid $C25 less this week for a gold maple than last week.

Glad to hear from you. Anyone new to this forum should take the referenced message to heart. It is surprising what you can easily give up to acquire just one maple/month.

Pizz

(10/16/2003; 18:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110483)

Short notes

Belgian: This calm feels like the silence right before two armies, each on a hill, rush into the valley. Each hoping someone is going to pull a rabbit out of the perverbail hat and make the imbalances go away. Wishful thinking, IMO.

I can't speak for anyone else, but here in the Northwest, business is down, and down pretty hard, and the people are wandering around like they lost their medication.

Rich: Country life suiting me just fine - homeless as the wife says - mortgageless I say, but I will qualify my last paragraph regarding the people . . they may just be like this normally and I haven't been here long enough to figure it out, but I'm not the only one who sees and feels the same way. . .

10 buck silver???? you bet. But with my luck it will happen real soon, like before the snow flies cause the bars I painted black and normally use for door stops, are in the bed of the truck and will be used for traction on snowy days. At ten bucks an ounce, hiding them in plain sight may just be too nerve racking. . . .

Pizz

PS Rich: Bought a few long out of the money S&P puts last week myself. When things get this overbought, I just couldn't stand having this SM balloon pop without a small bet, but then I'm a bit like you, love the game, and love to play just a bit. . . (gotta pin???)

silvercollector

(10/16/2003; 19:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110484)

Belgian

Please clarify the following statement......"the occupying troops's moral that is reported to decline rapidly (suicides)"

The Invisible Hand

(10/16/2003; 20:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110485)

Gold and Individualism

Classical Individualism is the view that human beings are identifiable as a distinct species in the natural world and have as at least one of their central attributes the capacity to be rational individuals. Whatever else then is central about being a human being, it includes that each one, unless critically debilitated, has the capacity to govern her own life by means of the individually initiated process of thought, of conceptual consciousness. Furthermore, excelling as such an individual human being is the primary purpose in each person's life.
A just political community, in turn, is one that renders it possible for this purpose to be pursued by all (or as many as realistically possible)
Political justice therefore concerns the basic interpersonal principles by which human beings as such living in communities must interact (so if they do not, they may be banished).

Others view the collective entity whose citizenship one was bestowed by birth or otherwise as the central actor on the scene and political justice not as pertaining to interpersonal principles but to international principles by which nations must interact, thereby denying any role to the individual. In such a world gold has indeed no use.

Liberty Head

(10/16/2003; 21:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110486)

Rant With Bits-O-Truth For Spice

Yes, "Money" is a concept, a concept we could apply to most any thing.
We could use any thing as money.
Once the concept of money is put into action, it quickly becomes obvious that some things perform the money function better than others.
The next question is, what things have the most desirable attributes to perform the function of money? Think, high density, rare, recognizable, uniform, stable units, and so on.
It won't be long before one discovers, precious metals are strong contenders for best things to use as money. In fact, like the wheel, this reasoning is backed by historical experience, many times over.
Gold, silver and platinum are among the best things to use as money. However, these things do not become "honest money" on their own. The honesty part has to be conferred by usage in a market where the ONLY forces are supply and demand.

Best Wishes

DummyANI

(10/16/2003; 22:18:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110487)

Societe Generale at TOCOM

Societe Generale starts the futures-tradings at TOCOM from November, 2003.

Societe Generale will be a strong rival to Mitsui for a gold-trading.

If POG is over $400 per ounce in November, it is very interesting to see their trading-positions

Black Blade

(10/16/2003; 22:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110488)

HERE'S YOUR CHOICE: A FAT PORTFOLIO OR A STEADY JOB

http://www.nypost.com/business/8197.htm
Snippit:

Operating earnings, for instance, are expected to be up an impressive 17.3 percent in the recently completed third quarter. But here's the rub. Companies are creating those impressive profit gains mainly by cutting costs. And the easiest way to trim expenses is to make a paper-pusher push paper a little faster. Because then their stock price would get pummeled by Wall Street. With the market predicting nirvana, a penny-a-share drop in profits could be hellish. And all the executives who dream of retiring rich would have to spend their links days playing public courses. So, to protect the runup in the stock market, companies are sacrificing jobs. This is what's behind the phenomenon. That 17.3 percent gain I mentioned above is being achieved with only an 8 percent improvement in revenues. So, unless profit margins have improved tremendously (and they haven't), companies are simply cutting costs to show earnings growth.

Black Blade: As I have been pointing out over the past few months. It's mostly all "cost-cutting" � that is firing workers and increasing productivity by having fewer workers do more work. In this economy they aren't going to complain either.

Goldbug 1

(10/16/2003; 23:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110489)

An Awakening.

Just when we thought the gold market had drifted off to sleep................Action! (Happening soon folks)

And�ril

(10/16/2003; 23:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110490)

Falling down

Liberty Head: "Yes, "Money" is a concept"

Truth!
money = a concept

Liberty Head: "a concept we could apply to most any thing."

Meaningless nonsense.

Liberty Head: "We could use any thing as money."

Translation from above above equation: 'We could use any thing as a concept.'

Nonsense.

Do not confuse the function of the currency-thing with the the money-concept. Related, yes, but not equivalent. There are many bodies broken in this common pitfall.

Liberty Head: "what things have the most desirable attributes to perform the function of money? Think, high density"

Density is not an attribute that lends functionality to a concept. Think not high density, think purely instead.

slingshot

(10/16/2003; 23:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110491)

Something in the Wind?

A fellow co-worker, who is a bull for stocks, had a story to tell. He is on a forum that mainly talks stocks that have nothing to do with PM's. He knows I'm into Gold and Silver and he said he had a funny thing happen at his site.
Two gentlemen who were Germans started to talk about Gold.
One was on the side of having physical in hand and the other into gold stocks. He has been veiwing this site for a long time and this is the first time gold has been mentioned.

It seems that German offical who has 35% in gold stocks is not he only one looking at gold.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Cor Tauri

(10/16/2003; 23:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110492)

Great Albino Bat: it was Enrico Fermi

http://sci.mercer.edu/handouts/fermi_calculations.htmI think it is usefull to practice estimation.

Druid

(10/16/2003; 23:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110493)

Black Blade (10/16/03; 22:43:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 110488)

Druid: Black Blade, you have done incredible work in logging the "bone pile" stats and providing a very informative DMR. If I flipped paper, I would do it based on your data alone. As the Fed continues to expand credit and run the printing press 24/7 we "might" actually see "some" increase in job creation as CFO's are fooled by the illusionary affects of easy credit and currency. In the very short term jobs will be created but over the longer term more jobs will be lost as companies are forced to layoff even more employees due to future interest rate hikes emanating from a schizophrenic bond market. I don't see how anyone can seriously commit to any long term capital expenditures in this unstable interest rate environment. Thus, the net effect of an unstable rate environment tends more toward more job losses. However, the real story and focus coming from the Wall Street ghouls and carnival barkers on parrot vision (CNBC) will be on a GDP growth rate that is off the charts. They will contend that interest rates are spiking because of future expected GDP growth (gearing up economy) whereas, the real reason for these rate hikes will be due to pure monetary inflation.

Goldendome

(10/17/2003; 00:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110494)

Libertyhead-- The characteristics of Money

Dear Sir Libertyhead: Some more thoughts on money. I'm sure that when you said that most anything could be money you meant to add: upon universal acceptance. However, most things can only be money by Government edict. Very few things are able to stand on their own to endure the market place evaluation that transforms them into "money".

Mises contended that for anything to be thought of as money it must [first] have it's own intrinsic value that makes it desired. Gold of course is malleable, ductile, reflective, beautiful, rare, etc. (Paper in and of itself has little intrinsic value and certainly fails most of the demands placed upon money listed below.)

To be a be real market money an item must be [2] a medium of exchange; therefore it must also be [3] divisible, [4] portable, and this next item leaves out most anything but the elements; it must be [5] fungible, (an ounce of Gold is an ounce of Gold around the world. We can't say that about diamonds, lumber, potatos, or wicker baskets; they're all different.

A couple of other things that are demanded of real money: It must be a (6)store of value-limited in supply (fiat paper obviously isn't working here) and it must be [7]indestructable. How many times have we seen Gold coins raised from the bottom of the ocean to gleam in sunlight just as they did 400 years ago when they sank? You can't do that with anything else (even silver), and other commodities will eventually rot away even in storage.

Over time the seven characteristics of money have separated Gold for the most part, but also silver to an extent from the rest of the items that might have been considered as money. At that time the value of Gold as a store of ones wealth; the store of ones excess labor and production, overtakes the basic intrinsic value of the metal, leading it away from many of it's intrinsic uses to it's new status as-- money.

Gdome

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 00:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110495)

silvercollector-dummiani

silvercollector: Moral of the US troops in Iraq is declining as measured by the increasing number of soldiers committing suicide. If Turkisch troops would come to Iraq, I wouldn't be surprised seeing, terror in the Turkisch tourism industry (cfr.Bali) and thus the further widening of the conflict with more financial/economic consequences.

dummiani : Can you please comment on the changes in the figures you are presenting. What do this changes mean ? TIA.

slingshot

(10/17/2003; 01:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110496)

Ah! The Dingdong Bell

Or What's With the Price of GoldHad to laugh at that one. As for the POG? It is doing fine in my books. We have broken resistance at $300/$330/$350/$360 and a hop to $380. Again we are in a consolidation about $372 and the pullbacks from the highs were great buying opportunities. In the past I have posted that my window of opportunity was closing. To my surprise, I still kept buying. Saving longer or purchasing smaller amounts.
The one ounce at a time, turned into get what you can. Thinking it over. The window closes when there is none left to purchase. That is, there is no more bullion to purchase because of supply or the government stops making the coins. Somewhere between the two the Dingdong bell rings. That will be a rude awakening.

Dingdong Bell, Thats a Hoot!
Slingshot----------------------<><><>

Liberty Head

(10/17/2003; 01:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110497)

Goldendome

What Mises says about money is essentially the point I was attempting to make with my own words. Certainly Mises explains it better than I. Thank you for posting that.
Universal acceptance is desirable however it is not a necessary condition. Mutual acceptance is the minimum requirement.
Government involvement is not a necessary condition either. Nonetheless government always muscles into the act. Trade would continue without legal tender laws. General laws against fraud, theft and default are sufficient protection.

Best Wishes

Aristotle

(10/17/2003; 01:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110498)

Hey there, Goldendome

Good morning to you.

I enjoyed your encapsulation and nodded in agreement with just about everything you wrote, however... I wondered why you abruptly ended the history lesson of monetary development prematurely somewhere in the early 1900's. Big smile!!!! Some of us are dying to know the rest of the story! Sooooooo.... howzabout telling us the rest of the story? Or, are you insinuating that the monetary story ended there, and we've been back-peddling for the latest three-quarters of a century?

Another thing comes to mind. If where you've left off is indeed where you're happy leaving the process as the monetary zenith, am I safe to assume that you favor the principle and practice of Gold leasing/lending/swaps and the like? After all, it's all just standard monetary usage. Doesn't it strike you as odd, then, that so many Gold-minded investors (I'd suppose who are all guys just like you) in recent years have so virulently attacked the miners' (like Barrick) use of forward sales and Gold loans?

Curious ideological inconsistencies that people should try to resolve one way... or ANOTHER.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Spartacus

(10/17/2003; 02:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110499)

Does Russia Abandon The Dollar?

http://www.neftegaz.ru/analit/comments.php?id=1195&one=1
� Andreas Wild
Neftegaz.Ru

-- It seems that Russia would be increasingly keen on pricing oil sales in euros instead of dollars and thereby acknowledging that the euro is becoming more important as a world reserve currency. This view was supported by the Russian President Vladimir Putin who invited the German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for two days to Ekaterinburg last week. On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko, confirmed the idea and called it even inevitable. --

DummyANI

(10/17/2003; 02:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110500)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2

D-ANI: TOCOM has a more transparent future-system than COMEX. COT report is issued at every day. And Mitsui is a top player in TOCOM-gold.
From Oct. 6 to 8, Mitsui piled up 25,871 net-short-positions.
Mitsui kept over 60,000 net-short positions since Oct. 8.
I do not know when Mitsui decreases his positions under 50,000.
But a short-cover of Mitsui indicates another very strong up-trend signal of POG.
I am waiting for a day when the short-cover will happen.

Buy a gold, sell a Yen

contrarian

(10/17/2003; 02:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110501)

Belgian--"$1 trillion yearly twin deficits"

belgian--you referred to "cancerous yearly twin deficits of $1 trillion"

can you elaborate...are you referring to $500 billion trade deficit AND $500 deficit in the yearly US govt budget?

or two years of $500 billion trade deficits?

just trying to get a clarification here

thanks!

Dollar Bill

(10/17/2003; 04:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110502)

*>*............+

Sir Belgian, is this below accurate?

"frenchmen Trichet to become head of ECB nov 1 stuart
NEW 10/16/2003 4:05:21 PM" (yes)

"Trichet is pronounced exactly like the french verb 'tricher'
which means 'to cheat'" ?

Spartacus

(10/17/2003; 05:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110503)

Link With Dollar

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=33755&d=17&m=10&y=2003Arab News

"Over the past few months, the US dollar has fallen about 15 percent in value against the euro and the yen. It is good news for the US economy; a falling dollar will boost exports and safeguard American jobs � bound to be a major issue in an election year. But it is bad news for the Gulf states.

The Kingdom's principal source of revenue, oil, is priced and paid for in dollars � which means that its value has dropped by that same average 15 percent. It would not be a problem if imports all came from the US. But while the US is the Kingdom's biggest supplier of imports, it is closely followed by the EU (imports largely priced in euros) and Japan (imports priced in yen). The slide in the value of the dollar has inevitably increased the price of Saudi imports."
--------
"Is it not time, then, to stop pricing oil in dollars? Why not treat it as a currency in itself, with the oil-barrel floating against other currencies? It works with yellow gold. Why not with black gold? It would certainly protect against a weak dollar."

misetich

(10/17/2003; 06:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110504)

The US trade deficit: the good, the bad and the very bad

http://www.brookesnews.com/031310tradedeficit.htmlSnip:

What I intend to stress is that bad deficits are like the spots measles produce. They are symptoms, not causes.
.................
In 2000 America's trade deficit rocketed by 40 per cent compared with 1999. ....... Well, I'm beginning to believe that Al thinks an iceberg is a famous Swedish actress.
....................
The nitty gritty of the piece is that from 1994 to 2000 M3 jumped by over 80 per cent.. Where in heavens name does Greenspan think it all went? From November 2000to the end of January monetary expansion was annualised at 15 per cent. And commentators wonder why the trade deficit jumped. In plain English, the deficit jumped because America was, and still is, exporting inflation.
..................
America's massive monetary expansion misdirected production in certain countries by increasing the demand for their exports. This misdirected investment from production for the domestic market to the American market. In short, they have overinvested in export industries to satisfy America's inflated demand for imports. When American demand slumps these foreign export industries will be particularly hard hit given the number of years they have spent expanding output to serve American consumers.
.....................
Being on a gold standard ensured that the savings were real and not simply book-keeping entries.

Today, however, 'excess investment' really means credit expansion and that means inflation. Keynesians just don't put the cart in front of the horse, they damn well shoot the poor creature.

No matter what Keynes claimed, credit expansion cannot turn "stone into bread."
*****************
Misetich

Jackson at his very best - Easy Al has been (is) wall papering the whole world with Federal Reserves Notes aka as US $ -

Japan's long list of CB have not been too far behind Easy Al - and they are accelerating/expanding their Yen print shops by apparently increasing their money supply to 3 - 4% from the current 2% to avert deflation

CB's are attempting to print themselves out of the hole by trying to get rid of the disease caused by printing too much fiat -

Hyperinflation is the cure to all ills.

The Gold Bull is still in its early stages - and goldbugs are in for a ride of a lifetime

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Druid

(10/17/2003; 06:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110505)

Goldendome (10/17/03; 00:07:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 110494)

Druid: Gdome, thanks for the additional info. The four main criteria I was always "taught" that defined money was: 1. Unit of account 2. medium of exchange 3. store of value and 4. intrinsic quality. Todays fiat currency functions only as medium of exchage, although, the huge marketing machine (wall street) sells it as a store of value in the form of different paper instruments.

Goldendome

(10/17/2003; 07:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110506)

Follow-up

Liberty: Yes, in a barter system between consenting parties, anything could serve as a medium of exchange.

Ari: Notice the title of my posting is the characteristics of money. NOT, the CHARACTERS manipulating the money. Yes, I guess I end probably somewhere about the 19th century, before different forms of paper gold came about. (smile also).

Off to work now...Gdome

DummyANI

(10/17/2003; 08:14:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110507)

COMEX is very volatile today.

COMEX is very volatile today.

Tell me what is happening today in COMEX ?

cockerel1

(10/17/2003; 08:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110508)

What will it take?

So what does gold need to break free?

It needs to be the best steady "investment?" out there!
Over the last two years it has clearly been that, so that doesn't work.

It needs an identity!
It has been the accepted "wealth-of-last-resort" for over 5,000 years, all over the world. What more could you ask for?

It needs to be in such short supply, that everyone wants to own it!
It is in short supply, and any increase in yearly supply will require years of preparation to existing and new mines to provide additional supply.

It needs to be the security of choice!
It is, but to less than one tenth of one percent of the investing public in North America, so obviously that doesn't work either.

It needs to be accepted!
It is, by the so-called poor nations and their people.

So, what is holding it back? Why is it having such a hard time?

Well, it needs to break free of being tied to other "manipulated monies". It needs to stop "flitting" up and down when the U.S. $ does the opposite.It needs to no longer depend on how the stock market is doing!It needs to stop being the "pawn" to banks and governments.

Unfortunately, to accomplish these conditions, it needs a DISASTER!

And that is unfortunate! When the sad state of the western world is such that a disaster is required so that "true money" can be accepted universally, we surely have reached the so-called, bottom of the barrel.

But it will not always be that way! The time is coming, and it is very close.

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 08:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110509)

@ contrarian

US' Twin deficits (more expenditures than income)(more imports than exports): Budget + trade deficits = 500 + 500 billion $ = 1 Trillion $ per year.
150,000 tonnes total aboveground Gold x 368$/Oz = 1.7 Trillion $.

Point is : Or the deficits (rounded figures) are enormous vis � vis Gold's valuation or the POG is obscenely low.

Simply wanted to say how much 1 Billion $ represents in Gold *at today's* theoretical prices. 1 Billion $ = 100 tonnes of Gold, IN THEORY, because you can't buy a fraction of this Gold at today's prices !!!

In other words,....see how much dollar-confetti (digits) are permanently created and compare this with the Gold-figures. That's WHY Gold should remain branded as a barbaric relikwi.
This simple little math on proportions is strongly suggesting that Gold's revaluation in a Free Gold Market under a new currency system...will be enormous and that FOA's projection of POG=30,000$/Oz is NOT an ad random figure.

Total US liabilities (Treasury document) = 44 Trillion $
150,000 tonnes aboveground Gold = 1,7 Trillion $ ! A factor 25 (44:1,7=25)
368$ x 25 = 9,200 $ per ounce ...cfr 1971 > 1981 POG 41$ > 850$ ( factor 20)

The revaluation of Gold shall be done with taking into account of the total outstanding debts.

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 09:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110510)

@Dollar Bill

Oh boy, you are incorrigible...Yes "tricher" = "to cheat".
Maybe that's WHY it is exactly Trichet (the cheater) who will start to unveil/dismantle, the dollar's 7 decades old cheating, during his 8 years of ECB presidency !? The $-poacher becoming an �-ranger.

Note that the political dis-united EU, unanimously agreed on Trichet and for 8 long years !!! EMU (the euro) is Euroland's fundamental. Note that Europe always finds a solution-compromise for everything !!! Miniature Belgium's budget has been balanced for the forth year in a row ! Smile Bill. Regards from Euro Credit.

Yep, those twin deficits are indeed, result and not cause of *systemic* depreciation of the dollar-currency-reserve.
Asia and silent Co, has embarked on the replacement of the dollar-system. Time for action and put the theories into practice.

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 09:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110511)

@Cockerell...What does Gold need to break FREE !?

Not Freddy Mercury but the dismantlement of the dollar system or more precisely the implosion of the existing paper-dollar- gold-market. Can only happen if and when the euro (euro-system) succeeds and is accepted as the dollar's alternative. IF THIS IS NOT MATERIALIZING...GOLD WILL REMAIN CONTAINED WITHIN THE DOLLAR SYSTEM !!!

The dollar is AND remains THE ANTI-THESIS of Gold. And to those who keep on doubting about the euro-system,...I would like asking to elaborate why and how the dollar-system will turn 180� and become Gold Associated !? TIA.

Compare the ECB's relative transparancy on gold reserves with the FED on Gold !?

misetich

(10/17/2003; 09:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110512)

Global: Imported Productivity - S. Roach, Morgan Stanley

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031017-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

The result is a jobless recovery built on an increasingly tenuous foundation of "imported productivity." The real issue is whether this new strain of productivity enhancement is sustainable. I have my doubts.
....................
Wage and salary disbursements -- by far the dominant component of personal income -- are basically unchanged in real terms fully 21 months into this recovery; by contrast, at this juncture in the past six upturns, real wage income has been up, on average, by about 9%. The gap between the current cycle and the norm of earlier cycles works out to a shortfall of about $320 billion in real terms, or 4.4% of the current level of real disposable personal income. In other words, the foreign sourcing of domestic demand via imported productivity has given rise to a significant income leakage that already has had a material impact on household purchasing power. Absent other sources of support -- tax cuts, home mortgage refinancing, or a renewal of vigorous hiring -- this shortfall of internally driven income generation could end up spelling serious trouble for the overly indebted, saving-short American consumer. In short, there's good reason to doubt the sustainability of a recovery built on a foundation of imported productivity.
.....................
***************
Misetich

US and Japan are spearheading the "global recovery" through outright asserted manipulation (oops - intervention) of currencies, and stock markets in the hopes of establishing a virtual positive cycle.

Astonishingly "the flock" appears to be buying it propelled by complex trading program models ( oops didn't LCTM use those models too?)

Yet, jobs are disappearing in both the US and Japan.

The statistical differences between US and Europe in unemployment classification gives the false illusion of a big gap between the two Superpowers. However its comparing apples with oranges. The US for example part-timers are classified as working whilst in Germany they're not.

Hence unemployment numbers in the US are much, much higher than those reported by the BLS.

The "Manipulators oka Market interventionists" have just raised the stakes a little higher - betting the farm on a magical economic recovery, led of course by the US.

Yet, bubbles are emerging everywhere. Stocks are overvalued both in Japan and the US. A bond bubble is about to burst. Housing bubble in the US is at the edge - an accident ready to happen just as GSE's are- fearful of the day IR set by markets rather than those enviosed by the " Interventionists" rise to higher levels as risks rise.

The US $ is at the centre and under attack. Thus far since inception of the Euro, the market share of the US $ global reserve currency has fallen by about 8% and is poised to crumble further, reflecting the reality of an overvalued currency and the strength of EU.

The enlargement of EU from 15 to 25 is only a step of many more to strengthen EU and the Euro at the expense of US and US $

The harsh reality has not yet set in as many in the US are resisting the inevitable.

The dominance of the US $ is at an end.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

contrarian

(10/17/2003; 09:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110513)

twin deficits--budget and trade

thanks Belgian for the well-thought out explanation...

I think it best to buy and hold the physical!

cockerel1

(10/17/2003; 10:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110514)

Belgian - msg#: 110511

Belgian, I read your very informative posts and look forward to your points of view.

However, on your reasoning behind gold breaking free, we have to differ.

Why?

My ability to an explanation may not be as eloquently explained as some of the more intellectual posters on this board, but here it is in a nutshell.

Gold needs to be free of ALL fiat monies. Instead of being the PAWN, it needs to be the KING (or QUEEN for the ladies here).

It needs to be free of ALL encumbrances.

It needs to be the LEADER.

Why is that?

Only then, can value not be manipulated, and that, in a nutshell, is the reason all economies are in a sad state.
As long as manipulation can take place, gold will continue to be recognized as "just a relic."

How about Europe, you ask?

Europe is NOT in good shape!
Europe may be in better shape than U.S., but it would eventually become "The manipulator", and that is like "jumping out of the frying pan into the fire", IMO.

So, I repeat. To break free, the world needs a disaster.
It needs for the peoples to know real hardship.

Only then, will gold realize its full potential.

Clink!

(10/17/2003; 10:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110515)

@ cockerel1

"To break free, the world needs a disaster.
It needs for the peoples to know real hardship."

Not to disagree with you, but when you say "the peoples" I think there are a number who have already known extreme hardship and are doing something about it. China and the SE Asian tigers come to mind. Russia (and the other ex Soviet replublics ?) too. South America, rich in resources. What they could precipitate would then lead to the hardship in the US and Europe that you are talking about.

C!

Zhisheng

(10/17/2003; 11:34:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110516)

Up Into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Not that bad. Especially when it seemed the shorts were trying to close the week below $370.

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 11:52:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110517)

@cockerell

Please, elaborate on " Europ is not in good shape" !?
Economically,...? Monetarilly,...? Politically,...? Socially,...?

An internally expanding economical territory...Monetary policies aimed at stability and (sustainable) growth...Political disunity but compromises...Social tolerance and openess.

To what extend are Euroland's problems, related to the further acceptance of dollar domination through Gold containment ?

Elaborate WHY our planet should give the dollar-system more lifetime ?

I'll listen to the answers with as much objectivity as I can possibly bring forward, whilst the facts indicate that Euroland is moving to a path of more liberalization and the US moves to increased collectivism.
I'm all ears cockerell. Fire your arguments in your own language. TIA.

Cometose

(10/17/2003; 11:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110518)

Earnings Season

this may be the day to begin selling the news or
start singing the blues.....
Is this the day that the prop gets taken out??????
NOt PROPELLER : that's the bond market .....
PROP as in only means of support in favor of such outlandish values......

IS THE STANDARD OF VALUE AND THE MEANS OF COMPARISON IE PE RATIOS AND REAL EARNINGS COMING INTO an era in which VALUE AND THE MESURE OF THAT standard is again in VOGUE??????

Becuase dollars are so inflated and frail , will not metals have a say in quantifying the standard of value ? Probably more than we imagine on aday to day basis....Stay tuned ....it looks more and more like things are getting ready to become very interesting....

White Hills

(10/17/2003; 12:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110519)

Misetich

Always glad to read your posts on the forum. I also think this well publicized economic recovery is all smoke and mirrors. Not that I blame this administration for whats happening as it has been unfolding for a number of years and there is plenty of blame to go around. I think that they are flying by the seat of their pants from day to day. I am worried by the new currency that has just begun to be released in the USA. As has been pointed out on this forum the transition to a two tier currency system seems so difficult as to almost rule it out. However, maybe it is my age and experience but it all has an odor. Something in the woodpile.As I tell all my friends get out of paper assets, get out of debt and buy Gold(of course call USA Gold) White Hills

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 12:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110520)

For Gold to break Free...the world needs a disaster !?

What is a disaster and on what scale has the right kind of disaster has to appear,... before Gold should/could break Free !?

How far away is this planet from a Gold-moving, disaster ?

Did communism in the USSR ended with a planetarian disaster ? Was the euro introduced after a shocking disastor or general hardship ? What disaster caused the Berlin wall to fall ? Ect...

Gold should not,...NOT be associated with gloomy disaster mind sets !!! But with an intelligent and wise decision to get things on the right track again...by preference without catastrophic disasters.

The West is NOT going to sit idle in the wake of Asian economical supremacy. Dollar and euro-blocks are going to take some measures as to give global "balance" more breathing space. Monetary measures that will be. Dollar and euro will go on competing, each with its own concept, as to avoid destructive disaster. Gold is definitely an element that's on the basic fundamental differences between the two ($-�) competing, disaster avoiding, systems.

Can we agree, somehow, on this, dear cockerell ?

Gandalf the White

(10/17/2003; 12:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110521)

YES, Sir ANI !!! The CABAL was playing their SAME Ol'e GAME today !!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GDummyANI (10/17/03; 08:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 110507)
COMEX is very volatile today.
Tell me what is happening today in COMEX ?
===
BUT, ALL that they accomplished was to sell some more PAPER SHORT contracts that they will have to "cover" soon. As Sir Zhisheng said:
(10/17/03; 11:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110516)
"Up Into the Close!"

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1

"Not that bad. Especially when it seemed the shorts were trying to close the week below $370."
---
They were met by Sir Slingshots new ARMY of Goldhearts !
<;-)
===
OH yes, they did NOT accomplish ANOTHER little red "O" on the P&F chart today, AND, now the ROCKET will appear at at a POG of $380.+ Get ready for the BLASTOFF of the ROCKET !
"TO the MOON, Alice !"
<;-)

Great Albino Bat

(10/17/2003; 12:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110522)

Belgian, you are becoming the spokesman for Europe here!

It's very useful for readers here, to have your insights on Europe, as a European. I have to admire your generally optimistic attitude towards The European Union and the Euro. Lord knows, humanity sorely needs something to be optimistic about!

Before the Euro was launched, there were some doubts as to its long-term stability, and these persist today.

The doubts center on the fact that the Euro is, for all its importance and bright prospects, still a "managed" currency.

The fact that the ECB marks gold reserves to market price every so often, is encouraging, but materially rather irrelevant, since there is no commitment to redemption of notes, in gold, at a fixed parity. All that the reserves in gold will offer, when we achieve "freely traded physical gold", is an index which will give us an idea of the depreciation of the Euro. That at least, is something.

The lurking weakness in the Euro, lies in the fact that the individual countries that make up the E.U. have each of them, the right to issue Euros. And, pressed by Labor accustomed to getting what it wants and empowered by votes, the politicians will tend to incur DEFICITS too easily. The deficits will be funded by more Euro emission. The temptation to consent to Labor's demands, is permanent. This is a latent source of weakness, that can be exploited by Labor agitation promoted "from abroad" - you know what I mean.

On the above, correct me if I am wrong, of course!

There is a provision within the EU, that countries that exceed a certain percentage of deficit, and therefore issue excessive Euros, will be "punished" by the E.U. However, this is a menace from a dog that barks but has no teeth.

France is apparently succumbing to pressures, and recently told the rest of the EU to "buzz off", so to speak, that it would attend to its problems no matter what. So, that's not a good sign of eventual monetary strength.

On the other hand, Germany's Schroder surprised me pleasantly, for we had the opportunity to hear him address the Metal Workers Union and tell them quite clearly, that their demands could not be met. The reform of the unemployment system in Germany is also admirable: those unemployed will not get benefits past a certain point, if they refuse ANY JOB that is offered to them!! Wow! Hat's off! "You don't want to accept a job because it's not to your liking? Sorry! No more unemployment checks!" That's the stuff to give the troops.

Bottom line: the Euro will be prone to weakness, when the going gets rough enough. The discipline of gold is absent, and without that discipline, the Euro will be weakened, eventually, by the same forces that destroy all paper currency.

Let us hope that once the Euro is very firmly established and the European Union is firmly constituted, gold redemption will once again be adopted. Then, Europe - the Center of the World, as it should be. For our world is a reflection of European thought and views of life and the world. The very dress of the world, is European: the suit and tie.

Quite incidentally: it is my opinion that the European Union and the Euro, are Masonic in origin. These things did not happen by "popular will", but by the permanent concern of a very small group of men working towards an objective, behind the scenes. Thus was the United States brought into being, and the same process is at work in the creation of present day European Union and its Euro. Visible evidence: the stars in the circle of the European flag.

Guano from the GAB

(10/17/2003; 13:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110523)

So Who's Stealing China's Manufacturing Jobs? by Caroline Baum

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&sid=aRI4bAft7Xw4&refer=columnist_baum" China lost 16 million manufacturing jobs, a decline of 15 percent, between 1995 and 2002, according to a study of manufacturing jobs in the 20 largest economies by Joe Carson, director of economic research at Alliance Capital Management. In that same time, U.S. factory employment shrank by 2 million, or 11 percent."..

" Some 22 million manufacturing jobs were lost globally between 1995 and 2002 as industrial output soared 30 percent, Carson says. It seems that devilish productivity is wreaking havoc with jobs both at home and abroad."...

" The angst over the fate of U.S. production workers, whose numbers peaked in 1979, is not unlike the epitaph for farm workers in the early 20th century, says Steve Wieting, senior economist at Citigroup Inc.

``Real manufacturing output has risen 77 percent even though the number of manufacturing workers has fallen 22 percent since the 1979 peak,'' Wieting says.

Similarly, real farm output rose 96 percent since 1979 with 31 percent fewer agricultural workers. "

---if those numbers are correct, they give another perspective; namely consequences of automation----

contrarian

(10/17/2003; 13:16:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110524)

euro

I must admit that I have doubts about the Euro's long-term success. Certainly it's doing better now, but once the dollar fails as the world's reserve currency, which could be months or years away, I just don't see the Euro stepping into its place.

There's too many centuries of cultural and historical disunity attending it. Europe has never historically been a unified state of affairs in any sense of the word, and I fear this will work against the Euro's viability as a worldwide reserve currency.

Certainly if Russia switches to the Euro that will help it gain further credibility and usage.

But my feeling--and this is based on gut only--is that the Euro will not be the replacement to the dollar. What will replace the dollar, who knows.

Consequently, I think gold is a better investment than hopes in any Euro.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/17/2003; 13:26:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110525)

Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

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Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

The Hoople

(10/17/2003; 14:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110526)

ge,...

You are correct,automation will decrease even low/slave wage workforces. I remember there once was a chart published annually that showed the average amount of worker hours to produce an American automobile. It long ago was about 110 hours, and fell steadily to the late 80's where I believe about 28 hours was the time required. I haven't seen that published since then but I know today new auto assembly plants open that employ 1,800 people- doing what 10,000 or more used to do. It doesn't matter if it is Korea, China, or the U.S. the pressure to throw off labor is relentless. My Uncle used to say a robot can never buy product, it is therefore a depressing endgame. Slave wages, and darn few of them. Gold is tantamount to survival under the world we are heading for.

cockerel1

(10/17/2003; 14:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110527)

Sir Belgian.

Just scanned the posts after returning from a regular Friday lunch.

Will sit later and respond. (Have some "chores" to do this p.m. What a life! Semi-retired and working harder than ever!)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/17/2003; 14:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110528)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 14:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110529)

More Jobs Becoming Available

Yes, you heard me right! On CNBC they are talking up that there are more job offerings now. Of course these are minimum wage jobs for the most part and mostly in retail. Among the top three is the nation's largest employer (Wal-Mart). It should not be unexpected of course because retailers are gearing up for Christmas as they always do in the fourth quarter. However, I find it amusing that the financial media is acting as if this is a new development. Of course they are also pumping up the story that IBM plans to hire about 10,000 workers (in what country they did not say) even as high tech has fired hundreds of thousands this is but a spit in the Ocean. After Christmas � well we should see the usual layoffs but probably not reflected in BLS data because of the "seasonal adjustment" of course.

Meanwhile, most of the high tech and manufacturing jobs are leaving the U.S. for good, never ever to return. I read a report and heard another televised report that many who have been fired are headed back to school for higher education � a good place to hide out during this recession. However, many states are asking higher education � universities and colleges to raise tuition to become cost effective. Sometimes you just can't win. Another report mentioned that many have simply given up looking for work for now hoping that work will return. Unfortunately the jobs are leaving US shores for cheaper labor (both blue and white collar). This is a consequence of the "competitive currency devaluation" and cost-cutting measures so companies can "beat the street" earnings numbers. The Midwest will take a hard hit this next year as auto manufacturers and their suppliers are talking of closing some plants and moving offshore.

Nevertheless, the equities indices are still far off of their highs from the last big speculative mania "blow off". While some are frantically trying to regain losses and get back into the Wall Street casino with the last of their holdings and the kiddies college money, they are getting set up once again as the high valuations simply are not justified and revenue growth and earnings are coming primarily from "cost-cutting". I fear that they are once again going to get cleaned out of their last few pennies even as corporate insiders are selling and bailing out (Big Red Flag!!!). Caveat Emptor!

- Black Blade

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 14:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110530)

GAB/CONTRARIAN

I have been answering, extensively, the same "healthy" and often justified, euro-scepticism, many times before.

The same fundamental misunderstanding, in all euro-scepticism, is about the policies on EMU's goldreserves vis � vis the euro currency. I'll take a pause and ponder how I probably can make this more understandable. I've been struggling with the *concept*, for quite some time, as well.

Bedtime...

Great Albino Bat

(10/17/2003; 15:06:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110531)

Belgian: apologies if I tried your patience!

We know that the EU banking system maintains gold reserves in each national central bank, besides the ECB that has its own reserves, and that these were planned to include a component of gold reserves of 15% of the total reserves.

Whatever the gold reserves, they are irrelevant for Euro holders as the Euro IS NOT REDEEMABLE for a given quantity of gold.

Euro holders may speculate and dream of future developments, and we certainly hope these are gold positive.
At least, the EU is not openly hostile to gold!

Confidence can be built upon slender foundations, it is true. But in monetary affairs, nothing beats instant redeemability. And that we have yet to see.

The GAB

Aristotle

(10/17/2003; 15:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110532)

GAB, maybe I can give Belgian a little rest on this one

Don't make the tactical mistake of viewing the euro/problems in isolation.

An Oldie but a Goodie.... a lesson to be learned.

There were two hikers in the woods, Mr. Dollar, and Mr. Euro.

Along came a bear, crashing through the Aspen trees in the furious speed of his hunger.

Mr. Euro took what little time was remaining to kick off his hiking boots and lace on some running shoes.

Mr. Dollar was incredulous. "As incredibly flawed as you are, nonetheless your behavior is that of a *PERFECT* fool!! What are you doing?!! You can't outrun that bear!!"

And then the game was up, as Mr. Dollar discovered that Mr. Euro didn't need to run with perfect speed, but needed merely to run *better* than Mr. Dollar.

In my simple mind, marking Gold reserves to market (as the dollar doesn not) is akin to lacing on a running shoe. And WHY on earth would you want to spoil it all by calling for some sorta official (fixed???) "redemption" of the euro currency for the central bank's reserves??? Isn't the ability to *SPEND* the euros at the market for Gold quite adequate to satisfy the need/objective of the Gold seeker? Think about it!!

On another point, you also might want to revisit your thoughts on euroland national deficits funded by emission of euros. No way, brother. Or let me put it another way. I've got Maastricht printed out, and have been using it as a pillow. Always handy and better than counting sheep. Anyway, looking past the specific exclusions, I've never seen anything that extends the right of emission to the nation-states. As the bear charges in for his meal, that's another advantage versus Mr. Dollar, like lacing on the other shoe.

By the way, I enjoyed your Masonic references about the euro, and the evidence of the circle of stars on the flag. I dunno... by itself that's pretty thin. How 'bout this -- if you look at the bottom of each euro note, on the back you'll find the address for the the Masonic website.
:-)

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Belgian

(10/17/2003; 15:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110533)

GABatman

You keep on thinking from inside the old...OLD dollar box !!! The dollar's ancient redeemability for Gold is to be replaced by a FREE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET IN EURO !!!
You buy and sell your Gold as you buy and sell your euro !
A FREE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET WILL BE CURRENCY DECOUPLED but associated with the euro-concept of A FREE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET EXPRESSED IN AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE EURO...NOT IN DOLLARS ANYMORE !!!

The present UNFREE paper gold market is a 100% DOLLAR ASSOCIATED market. Connect paper gold with dollar and PHYSICAL GOLD wit EURO !!!

We are discussing the difference in nature of the present dollar paper gold market and the future euro physical gold market.

Think very deep about this...because it is the biggest fundamental chance for Gold to break FREE ...from the dollar-system !!!

Redeemability will never work...NEVER !!! A free Physical Gold Market will become the centerpiece of the next currency system, wich cannot be a revised new dollar system because of the intrinsic antithesisis of the dollar and Gold. The dollar does NOT,...NOTTTTTTT WANT HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH GOLD ! Both, hate each other, since many decades of rising dichotomy between dollar and Gold.

The ECB's marking to market of its goldreserves is an open manifestation of admitting that Gold is the most appropiate Wealth tangible NOT to be used/abused with confetti.
The euro system wants an honest competition with Gold in a positive way. The euro-management has the guts to compete with Gold in a FREE PHYSICAL GOLD ENVIRONMENT !

The dollar only competes with Gold, by suffocating it permanently in that dark container that we think of having discovered !!!

The dollar never ceased confiscating Gold...Euroland, EMU, the ECB wants its Gold EXPOSED....EXPOSED to market prices and isn't even afraid/worried of doing so in the present dollar-manipulated/suppressed paper gold market !!!

Now I'm off to bed...Nighty naughty Bat.

Goldendome

(10/17/2003; 15:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110534)

China announces that it will buy $Billions worth of physical gold next year!

Did I hear that right?? I was working with customers during a financial (Gold) proponents show (The American Advisor), when I was sure that he announced that China had just reported that they would enter the market in a big way buying Gold Bullion to better diversify their Central Bank reserves. I forget the amount of money mentioned, but it was many Billions. The reporter (Joe Batalia) was excited in the extreme. This he said would really tighten physical supply (I'm sure it would). Has anyone else heard of this report. Like I said, I was busy at the time and so didn't get to give it my full attention...... Gdome.

Magister Aurelius

(10/17/2003; 15:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110535)

Great article by David Bond

Look for Russia and Norilsk Nickel to be pricing gold and other metal commodities in euros pretty soon, this according to David Bond in a new article on another gold site. Looks like Russia, Europe, China, and the Asian block are going to kick the dollar to the curb and destroy the U.S. economically. Bad times be a comin...

But if the world thinks that the American public got upset at two skyscrapers being blown up, just wait until the American people get the idea that the world just blew up their economy. Americans don't generally forgive until we make a lot of rubble in return.

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 16:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110536)

Goldendome - Chinese Gold

Old news. I have been discussing this for some time (usually in the DMR). They are so top-heavy with US dollar denominated debt they are looking to diversify. They even have a contract (maybe more) with a S. African miner for a portion of their production. The retailers on the Mainland can't even keep shelves stocked for long and are bought out quickly (in a nation of people with very low income). Recently foreign retailers have been allowed to purchase licenses to open retail outlets for gold (see today's DMR in the ASIA section. It is being suggested that the Chinese may soon match Indian purchases (imagine another 3,000 tons headed to the Far East! The rumors are rife that the People Bank of China has been the major buyer of western bank gold sales too.

Russia even announced that they want to increase their reserves from 7% to 10%. I am sure that they are not alone. The US dollar is too shaky for many bankers but to protect their unusually top-heavy dollar reserves they almost have to buy it to keep the value high enough to justify having so much US debt in their reserves.

Watch for gold and silver prices to explode if not by year end then certainly next year as the Chinese market liberalizes further and gold retailing becomes more available throughout the country. Even Japanese are still buying at a strong pace (also in today's DMR - they appear to like Austrian Philharmonics). If the new ETF in gold courtesy of the WGC takes hold in London and New York then the large funds could awaken even more interest - the Australian ETF has just surpassed 200,000 ounces and is still growing. The "currency war" is intensifying and almost anything can happen such as an Asian country begins to dishoard US debt triggering a rush to the exits crushing the dollar or the dollar simply crumbles lower in tandem with other currencies.

BTW, physical supply is tight and demand is still strong in spite of the global trading pits (which are simply paper pushing trades anyway). Also, another consideration is that mine supply will dwindle as exploration has been put aside and mine expansions few with miners gutting high grade zones when prices were low making lower grade ores less accessable in the process now that prices have rebounded. It will be several years before new mines come online. Notice that S. African miners are falling flat due to the stronger Rand? Look for less SA gold supply into the future for a while at least.

- Black Blade

Aristotle

(10/17/2003; 16:17:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110537)

Bulldog msg#: 110482

Right on! Keep at it, my good man. You've truly discovered the secret to tapping into a force that's bigger than any one of us.

Let me set up a little scene. Through years of life the more I've read, the more I've learned, the more I've continued to read; and the more I've learned, the better I've been able to sift through the material to separate the goods from the garbage -- and lemme tell ya, there's a LOT of garbage out there just waiting to taint the unwary minds of the novice and uninitiatied. Anyway, the point I'm getting at is this: with more (reading) comes more (depth). Again -- with more, comes more.

Alright, now that the scene is set, I wanna take this back to my original point regarding *our* little secret. In walking these very same steps that you are now walking today (our lovely savings scheme of Gold accumulation) I found that having the Gold brought me a liberating feeling of security which allowed me to pursue various facets of life with perhaps just a bit more zeal, enough to make all the difference between my performance and that of my nearest... how shall I say it, competition? Or to put it this way, having the reassuring security of Gold as a safety net beneath me has allowed me to pursue the days of my life as a better man that I would be without it, and in doing so, the momentum builds.

Living a better life begets living a better life which begets living a better life. With more, comes more.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Great Albino Bat

(10/17/2003; 16:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110538)

Belgian: perhaps you'll see this tomorrow. In which case, sleep well!

Your words are interesting and they may contain something; but if something is so difficult to express in simple words that make the concept clear as crystal, maybe that something is an illusory notion rather than a solid concept.

Evidently you are quite passionate about this theme, as the use of CAPITAL LETTERS shows.

Well, perhaps you have something. However, I still insist that the Euro is just another managed currency, tending toward zero value, and as long as it is a managed currency, not tied down and nailed to the floor by the discipline of gold redemption demands from its holders, its future is - however long it may take to arrive - to tend to zero value, just like other paper.

Nothing about "dollars" in this argument of mine. We are talkng exclusively about the Euro.

I know you mean well, and I like your optimism. However...
I also know what I know. Paper is paper, and the Euro is for the time being at least, just paper.

Nighty nite, from the GAB.

Great Albino Bat

(10/17/2003; 16:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110539)

Congratulations, Aristotle!

That last post of yours, pulls you up towards the original of your "handle" - "Aristotle".

"the reassuring security of Gold as a safety net beneath me has allowed me to pursue the days of my life as a better man that I would be without it, and in doing so, the momentum builds."

Words of vast importance. It's not just more wealth, it's "my life as a better man than I would be without it".

Individual sovereignty. Living your life as you want to live your life. That's the final meaning of gold.

Powerful words!

Gold in society, transforms and uplifts it to its maximum potential, because of this liberation that gold provides.

The GAB

steady

(10/17/2003; 16:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110540)

this site

dang aristotle , black , blade , gab and belgin yall making my brain get dizzy, i can barley keep up. Much less try and answer some tough questions, aristotle got any references for me in my search for the answers to your perplexing muszzilng/ muting steady posts untill i can figure em out questions?

CoBra(too)

(10/17/2003; 18:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110541)

Bill Bonner's Epitaph reminded me to send it to our GAB

...and here it is:
BAT MEAT
by Bill Bonner

"It's a cold, cold world we're livin' in."

- Percy Sledge

Pity the poor tungara frog. According to a New York Times
article, the little amphibian, native to Nicaragua, lives
"between a rock and a hard place." In order to mate, the
male of the species makes noise - "A sliding whine followed
by abrupt chucks, it sounds a bit like a little boy
imitating a dive bomber. Female frogs hop to when they hear
it. But fringe-lipped bats also tune in; the call is their
beacon for finding frogs to gobble."

"There is a crack in everything God made," noticed Emerson.
The more eager the little fellow is to mate, the more
likely he is to be eaten by a bat.

What kind of world has God put together for us, dear
reader? We ask the question not expecting an answer, but
offering one: it is a strange world. But the weirdness of
the world seems to have a pattern to it... a pattern of
perversity, with cracks big enough to bury a split-foyer.
When the tungara frog, for example, undertakes to whine his
way to what he most wants - love and immortality - he gets
what he least wants: almost immediate extinction.

Nationwide, houses have been going up in price at about the
same rate as increases in the money supply... that is, about
8% per year. In certain areas, the increases have been far
more resplendent, lighting up homeowners' hearts with
increases of 20% to 30% in a single year. Taken altogether,
since 1997 total housing values have risen from $8.8
trillion to around $14 trillion.

This 'free money' has been so alluring that homeowners
hopped over to their local banks to get at them, and then
whined their way deeper into debt. The financial industry,
ever ready to separate a fool from his money, rushed to the
scene with the offer of home equity lines of credit that
could be used "for everyday expenses, like groceries and
gas."

Thus does the world's mouth (as the U.S. has been called)
gobble down its own houses one brick at a time. The
homeowner, thinking he's getting something for nothing,
believes he is merely taking some of his gains off the
table - like selling a few shares of appreciated stock.
Little does he seem to realize, he is selling the table
itself... along with the kid's bathroom and the family room.

If, for example, his house went from a $100,000 price to a
price of $200,000, he may feel he can 'take out' $100,000
of equity and still be living in a $100,000 house. But what
he is actually doing is selling half of the house to the
mortgage lender. Even if the higher prices stick, he still
has to live somewhere... .and now he has to 'rent' half his
house from the mortgagor.

Another important difference between stocks and real estate
is realized when the bubble finally bursts. The man who has
sold off half his portfolio of stocks is actually a winner.
When the other half crashes... he walks away from it.

But when a real estate bubble bursts, there are at least
two losers - the borrower as well as the lender - and
neither walks away easily. The borrower still has to pay
his mortgage or he loses his house, and often must pay a
mortgage that is higher than the value of the house. Many
cannot or will not pay, which bounces the loss back onto
the lender.

But such is the cold, cold world we live in that the appeal
of rising asset values - whether real or paper - is almost
irresistible. Bats or no bats, the lumpeninvestoriat can
barely wait to begin croaking.

The average house in San Jose now sells for half a million
dollars, a reader tells us (below). How many people in the
San Jose area can afford a $500,000 house? We don't know.
But we suspect that the number is less than the number of
owners. Americans have become convinced that buying as much
house as you can - even more than you can comfortably
afford - is a shrewd financial move.

"Generations upon generations within the United States,"
writes Michael J. Burry, "believe that terrific home value
appreciation is both rational and certain... The current
population simply possesses very little direct experience
with devastating national housing deflation. Treacherous
cyclicality [price deflation] is at once absolutely certain
to occur and yet implicitly, patently denied by nearly all
today. For all time frames, complacency is the rule... "

People believe rising real estate prices are as close to a
sure thing as anything can be. But when an investment is
sure... it is surely a mistake.

"Clearly, a housing deflation would not be a pleasant
experience," continues Mr. Burry. "In the more recent real
estate bubbles of Britain, Japan and Hong Kong, the point
was made that there was and is finite land available -
which was true. Such logic formed the basis for the famous
late-1980s argument that the island nation of Japan,
smaller than California, was worth more than all the land
in the entire U.S. But the corollary that prices could not
fall due to land scarcity never proved true."

Another argument frequently made is that housing prices
merely reflect the increase in 'replacement cost' of new
homes. Since people need to live somewhere, it is
reasonable to expect that houses will not fall below
replacement costs.

And yet, every capital asset does sooner or later fall
below replacement costs - including houses. We recently
offered for sale one of our buildings in Baltimore - an
architectural gem designed by Stanford White and built in
the 1880s. Builders estimated that it would cost $5 million
to replace the ornate mansion. But in downtown Baltimore
today, we find no line of buyers willing to pay even
$750,000.

And who, save perhaps John Templeton, is old enough to
recall what happened to housing in the 1930s? Mr. Bury
reminds us:

"In 1933, during the fourth year of the Great Depression,
the U.S. found itself in the midst of a housing crisis that
put housing starts at 10% of the level of 1925. Roughly
half of all mortgage debt was in default. During the 1930s,
housing prices collapsed nationwide by roughly 80%."

Earlier this year, a Harris Poll revealed that 2/3rds of
investors were unaware that rising interest rates would
have a negative impact on bond prices. Homeowners seem
unaware that interest rates can rise at all... or that house
prices can fall. And they are as unprepared for it as the
tungara frog for the fringe-mouthed bat.

Your editor,

Bill Bonner

Hello, Sir GAB, in hoping you see the above in the sense of of good and well meaning spirit, absolutely no derogatory or hidden meaning intended I wish you and all a great weekend. cb2

Paper Avalanche

(10/17/2003; 19:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110542)

@ Ari - Aristotle (10/17/03; 15:22:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110532)

That was a briliant analogy. My hat is off to you. I learn much from your postings.

Have a great weekend!

PA

Liberty Head

(10/17/2003; 19:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110543)

How High Is The Water Mama?

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2135349snippit
At some point, perhaps even the European Central Bank will wake up to the fact that the rising euro will keep the European economy close to recession. All of which is to suggest that none of the world's major currencies is especially alluring; for one reason or another governments in all three might want them to fall. Of course, they cannot all fall against each other. They can, however, fall against something largely unloved by those under the age of 50, and famously dismissed by Keynes as a "barbarous relic": gold.
------------------------
A good read from The Economist.

FWIW $3400 by the end of 2004.

Best Wishes

(10/17/2003; 20:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110544)

Liberty Head. . .

Sorry but I see this as nonsense:

"At some point, perhaps even the European Central Bank will wake up to the fact that the rising euro will keep the European economy close to recession."

The United States pursued a strong dollar policy for nigh on a decade with nothing but positive results. Attention simply shifts from the manufacturing/export sector to asset markets -- the EU equivalent of Wall Street. We called it the wealth affect and it gets down to taking a lemon and instead of lamenting it -- making lemonade.

The fact of the matter is that if the United States is not given the chance to rebuild its productive sector and consumers and businesses given the opportunity to reduce debt, the primary members of G7 will never recover, because the goose that laid the golden egg will have gone to join its ancestors -- something Japan fails to understand, but EU monetary authorities understand all too well, despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the likes of the Economist.

Taking turns. It's not going to hurt. It's going to help.

Been working on News & Views, our Quarterly Review, for the past ten days.......and just now emerging. Glad its done, but enjoyed every minute of putting it together........one of the best we've ever done.

Comments not aimed at you Liberty Head............just think the Economist in typical fashion can't find the forest for the trees. What they might find is precisely the opposite.........What if the strong euro attracted investment capital which in turn strengthened business and the economy as a whole. The Economist would feature the accomplishment on the magazine's cover at about the time the pendulum was swinging in the other direction.

Cavan Man

(10/17/2003; 20:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110545)

March of Folly Chronicles

Lawmakers Back Request by Bush on Funds for Iraq
By DAVID FIRESTONE

Published: October 18, 2003

WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 � Congress voted overwhelmingly on Friday in favor of President Bush's request for $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan, handing him a solid mandate for the continued occupation and reconstruction of Iraq.

CM comment: This debt will take TWO GENERATIONS of Americans to pay off and it's just an appetizer. Let the reader understand.

Mr. Bill

(10/17/2003; 21:02:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110546)

@Cavan Man

"This debt will take TWO GENERATIONS of Americans to pay off and it's just an appetizer. Let the reader understand."

Actually this debt will be cancelled with a snap of the fingers. Let the holders of the debt (dollars) understand.

Great Albino Bat

(10/17/2003; 21:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110547)

Thank you for the post, Sir CobraToo

Next week, God willing, Mrs. Bat and the GAB will be in your lovely city, for a week of music, art and dining. I hope to climb St. Stephen's bell tower once again. And I hope to return with at least one lovely Philharmonic in my pocket.

Thanks for the extensive post, which I will read with much enjoyment.

We have parallel interests, CB2; I have been gathering some interesting mining claims, in hopes of seeing them become economically viable sometime, perhaps soon. I hope your visit to N.O. is pleasant.

Bill Bonner is wise and entertaining, at the same time.

Gruss Got!

The GAB

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 22:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110548)

CB2 - Real Estate Bubble

I find Bill Bonner quite amusing and entertaining reading at times myself. His comments are exactly what I have been thinking about the current real estate bubble. I somehow can't quite get a grip on how housing prices in the SF Bay area keep rising even as Silicon Valley has collapsed and the high wage jobs are scarce. My friends in the area tell me most of their friends have been living on credit and lower wage paying jobs (sometimes two or more jobs) just to keep up with the house payments. The California economy is in a shambles and so far the real estate bubble remains intact. For how long is anybody's guess now.

One friend and former business partner is now a truck driver and his wife works as an accountant (after losing several jobs due to downsizing). They refinance their house and bought new "toys" like most and of course they are paying it off. Fortunately they have locked in rates, but pity those who bought a lot of house for nearly nothing down and with adjustable rate mortgages. They can barely make ends meet now so when (not if) rates eventually rise (as they inevitably will), the bubble will turn many into paupers as they struggle to keep their homes cashing in everything from stock and bond investments to even retirement accounts (taking all the taxes and penalties along the way). The last thing people will do is to unload the family abode.

Fortunately for some (an unfortunately for people like myself), they are selling their homes for a lot of cash and moving to remote locations across the US and buying moderate to large homes with some acreage with their "winnings" and still have plenty of cash left over to invest or live off of. The reason I say unfortunately for me an others like me is that we live in our piece of paradise but they come and build up subdivisions in the lands in the intermountain west raising taxes as they expect the same services provided they have become accustomed to in the metropolitan areas. Then they mass together to change the laws to be more like "home" (the places where they "escaped" from), but I digress.

The point of course is that when the "real estate bubble" bursts wiping out accumulated "wealth" (the "wealth effect"?) the same damage done with the speculate "new economy bubble" will once again be repeated. Only this time it will be much worse as the "homeowner" and the banks will take a big hit. I have seen this scenario play out before but on a smaller scale. When the oil and gas business went belly up in the 1980's at the time of the S&L crisis, cities in Texas such as Houston had several subdivisions under construction and a sudden flight of potential homebuyers. There were brand new homes previously valued at $100,000 or more for example, soon selling for $20,000 to $50,000 and no takers. A few wealthy individuals bought at the low end of prices and when the market recovered they profited nicely while in the meantime they were renting out. I have seen it on a smaller scale in Nevada when gold plummeted from $400 an ounce to $250 an ounce and mining towns soon had homes for sell but no one to sell to. "For Sale" signs sprouted up like toadstools after a good rain. Many skilled miners and professionals just gave up, turned the keys over to the bank, loaded up a U-haul truck and migrated elsewhere never to return.

So here we are once again � how long before we see the "real estate bubble" burst in places like the SF Bay Area? San Jose? Los Angeles? Denver? Chicago? Etc. Remember that most newer homebuyers had no choice but to buy in with Adjustable Rate Mortgages just to get into a home in recent years. This could get very "interesting" and for their sake they had better lock in low rates if they can (even though that may not help). As the bond market tanks interest rates will rise. "Interesting" indeed.

- Black Blade

bugs

(10/17/2003; 22:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110549)

Canary in the mine?

From Noland.. and the mortgage industry. I am not personally watching the mortgage insurance market in detail, but given the topic recently, I thought this snip was relevant.

---

"Mortgage insurer MGIC disappointed the Street, as earnings declined 30% y-o-y to $105.1 million. Losses Incurred surged 28% to $221 million and were more than double Q3 2002. Total Insured Loans declined 5% y-o-y to 1.57 million. The mortgage insurers are one of the few groups within the financial sector not enjoying significant growth. Therefore, their delinquency and loss data are much more telling than most. MGIC's Total Loans Delinquent were up 27% y-o-y to 85,039. The delinquency rate jumped 46 basis points during the quarter to 5.41%, and was up 137 basis points y-o-y. Subprime delinquency surged 69 basis points during the quarter to 13.73%, with a y-o-y increase of 135 basis points. MGIC's results do not bode well for the day air begins to come out of the Mortgage Finance Bubble."

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 22:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110550)

Market Wrap Up � Tim Wood

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Once again: This is a Bear Market Rally.

Since the rally off of the March low began, I have warned that nothing has changed in the bigger picture. I have said countless times that this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally. I have tried to present historical evidence in support of this argument. It is true that this bear market rally has lasted longer and gone further than anticipated and yes, it is possible that this bear market rally could still have a little further to go. Nevertheless, I have repeatedly warned that it was nothing more than a bear market rally and not to get too emotional about the rally as this emotion will cause you to lose site of the bigger picture. More recently I have warned about the signs of distribution and the fact that the rally out of the August low has been anemic. I now want to take a brief look at a few extreme examples that are warning those that are willing to listen that this bear market rally is indeed about to run out of gas.

Black Blade: I get scared when Tim and I agree (he even called me "scathing" in one of his articles that featured Gold Bear Andy Smith once and I still chuckle over that one - I think I was proven correct in the end). He is TA and I am FA, but for once we agree for the same reasons (well at least some of the same reasons). I have been talking occasionally about the low volume on the equities markets (and even announced that insiders are bailing out). I even said it looks "toppy" as in the markets appear to be topping out. The markets are running on fumes as I see it. Besides, I see the current "bear market rally" as just one of several we will likely see over the coming years as this is a secular bear market that will last several years. Even in the Great Depression there were short rallies to the upside on occasion. The carnival barkers and Wall Street wonks are just giddy about the current rally. For fun I occasionally watch "Kudlow and Cramer" while at the gym. Usually Friday is reserved for the "Bull vs. Bear" session which oddly enough rarely has a bear as a guest. Tonight David Tice was the bear. Of course they only talked about tech stocks and the segment was a mere 5 minutes. Unfortunately it did not even get to the "meat" of the subject of "Bull vs. Bear" on the economy or stocks. So much potential for a lively discussion but I guess "bearish" opinions are a big "no no" on the stock infomercial channel. Anyway, long story short � this is a long term "secular bear market" that will last several years and these secular phases usually run about 16-18 years � well we are only in the third or fourth year of a secular bear market. So grip your waist band, pull up your pants, and get your house in order � or as I have repeatedly said: get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It certainly can't hurt and you will sleep a lot more peacefully knowing that you have taken precautions for yourself an your family. It just may even help you make it through the economic turmoil fairly unscathed or at least in much better shape than most.

After all, as Philosopher George Santayana once said: "Those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it".

Gonlyold

(10/17/2003; 23:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110552)

Uncontrolled Gold

Cockerell said about gold as money, "It needs to be free of ALL encumbrances." I agree except my interpretation of "encumbrances" is TPTB.

Until TPTB are prevented from influencing gold, I believe gold will never amount to anything except hopefull dreams. Does that mean that I'm negative on gold? No way. I encourage all to get some. It's just that I recognize the battle as being with control by TPTB instead of with any financially technical issue.

A major catastrophe could render TPTB uncapable of continued control. However, I would expect TPTB to have originated the catastrophe and therefore will be in a position to control it.

The only method I can imagine to wrest control from TPTB is to not use credit. Pay cash for everything. TPTB definitely want a cashless society. If people want to have a modicum of control, then they need to buy and sell without going through a bank. That means that people must be able to engage in cash transactions: a cash society; a creditless society.

However, I don't see this happening. People have become too accustomed to digital money and doing business via telephone with instant digits. So I think people will get what they want: to be conveniently controlled. TPTB will throw them a bone in the form of a hopeful free currency, gold, but the passsage of a few laws will eventually take that away. If TPTB can get confiscation laws passed in the USA, do you think they will have a problem passing such laws in the EU?

Also, I never understood how anyone could say that they "own" free gold when they "paid" for it with evidences of debt: i.e., Federal Reserve Notes (US dollars). How can a person "own" gold when he didn't purchase it? Can you purchase freedom with a debt? How can an exchange of title, to gold and freedom, be completed by and accepted with a tender of a debt, FRN's?

Even if you try to mine the gold yourself, is there any land that, in itself, is free from having been purchased with debt? As soon as the IMF extends credit to a country, does that country, any longer, have any resource which can be excluded from being considered collateral for the loan? Does not the lender "own" it all?

I think, Woe is us....

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 23:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110553)

Silver -- the next big thing in the global markets? Answering A Few Silver Questions

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/1017.html
Another editorial for the Silver Bugs. There is too much more to go into for a complete picture of the physical silver market. I have gone into it before but to make a long story short � a decline in silver use as digital photography increases is being offset by new technologies (and old ones too). Water purification upgrades are soon to be underway in several metro areas and silver will figure prominently with huge amounts of silver built into new water treatment facilities. It will soon replace arsenic wood treatment processes (in fact its already begun). Its anti bacterial properties are well known and that's another use that is increasing, especially in the health care sector. The new energy policy bill is now starting to include energy grade upgrades where silver must be incorporated to reduce energy loss and super conductivity applications are already using silver (so far some new military applications in this regard are currently being employed). There are many other projects in the works that will more than make up for any loss from digital photography. Anyway it would fill several pages why silver use will rise and the impending shortage will cause a crisis of its own as suppliers are forced to declare "force majeure" on contracts. On that day or even before the price will rocket.

As a side note, industrial uses for gold are rising as well. Especially for low temperature catalytic converters in building environment and just recently in medical treatments for a new approach to attack breast and prostate cancer. Still, the world population is growing faster than gold can be mined. That is, there is less gold per person now than before. In truth both gold and silver are rare and precious. As such, I have both (and platinum to a smaller extent as well) in my portfolio for "insurance".

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 23:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110554)

21mabry - Masonry

I must have missed that meeting at the lodge. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(10/17/2003; 23:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110555)

Stephen Roach (New York)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031017-fri.html#anchor0
Snippit:

America's fabled productivity miracle continues to be a key underpinning for much that is special about the US economy. With productivity in the nonfarm business sector up an astonishing 6.8% sequentially (annual rate) in 2Q03 and 4.1% on a year-over-year basis, it's hard to deny that something quite extraordinary is going on. As I see it, what's special is an increasingly powerful global labor arbitrage between domestic and foreign labor input that has given rise to a surge in offshore outsourcing. The result is a jobless recovery built on an increasingly tenuous foundation of "imported productivity." The real issue is whether this new strain of productivity enhancement is sustainable. I have my doubts.

Black Blade: Leave it to Stephen Roach to point out a few inconsistencies. Unfortunately it does not translate into US job growth. Of course it's called a "jobless recovery" � an oxymoron in this case perhaps?

Black Blade

(10/18/2003; 00:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110556)

Templeton feeling bearish

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artikkel?SearchID=73150372261645&Avis=SH&Dato=20031014&Kategori=NEWS&Lopenr=310140464ℜf=AR
The legendary investor predicts the U.S. dollar will lose 40 percent of its value.

Snippit:

SARASOTA -- Legendary investor Sir John Templeton is worried about the U.S. economy and stock market. Gary Moore, a Sarasota investment adviser who met with Templeton last week in the Bahamas, says Sir John has never been more bearish. Moore says Templeton is telling investors to avoid U.S. stocks and sell off excess residential real estate. He's also suggesting they buy bonds -- not U.S. bonds, but Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian bonds. The reason for all this, Moore says, is that Sir John, who founded the highly successful Templeton Growth Fund and Templeton World Fund, believes the dollar will lose 40 percent of its value against foreign currencies in the coming months, especially the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan. This depreciation will cause the Chinese and Japanese, who own 36 percent of all U.S. foreign debt, to sell their bonds and mortgage obligations and take their money out of the country.

When that happens, market forces will cause interest rates to rise, choking off investment in residential real estate and forcing the construction industry to contract. Stagflation, a combination of economic stagnation and inflation, will then set in, Moore said. U.S. manufacturers will face higher costs of production, but they won't be able to pass on price increases due to continued competition from lower- cost manufacturers in China and India. Profit margins for U.S. corporations will be squeezed and stock values will suffer. "Stagflation is hell on equities," Moore said. In turn, U.S. consumers will see their living standards decline, causing them to pull back on spending, sending another negative shock through the economy. They all agreed that the greatest fear hanging over the world economy at the moment is the possibility that the value of the U.S. dollar will crash.

For Moore, Templeton's arguments make perfect sense. He said that if the dollar plunges, foreign investors will sell off their investments in U.S. Treasury bonds and real estate mortgages. To attract more money to finance the growing Federal budget deficit and to continue to finance real estate mortgages, the Federal Reserve and U.S. banks will have to increase interest rates. With fewer people able to purchase homes, the value of existing homes will stop rising. In turn, fewer homes will be built, stalling one of the great engines of economic growth in recent years -- the construction industry. The impact of rising interest rates on the real estate market, is why Templeton is advising investors to sell residential real estate investments, Moore said. The reason Templeton is advising against U.S. stocks is that they never do well in a period of stagflation. Moore said it may take more than a few months for Templeton's scenario to work itself out. "But I'm worried," he said.

Black Blade: Nothing said about gold in this article but the last period of stagflation (rising inflation and slow growth) we saw a rocket ride on Gold and Silver. I expect the same but perhaps a more steady but sure rise in hard asset prices. Already the higher costs of energy are have one hell of an impact on corporate bottom lines (even though with "pro forma" earnings you can make up any number you want for earnings and forget about the bad stuff like paying the bills, or one of my faves � the "core rate" of inflation by stripping out the "unimportant" stuff like food and energy). Already the CRB has been on a tear for the last couple of years (an early indicator of inflation). Why government and Wall Street people will not tell the truth and fudge the data is understandable as for they are natural born liars and cheats. For some it may be genetic and for others it is a learned trait. Then again some may actually believe the spin by these cretins as they are intellectually limited in scope of thought or maybe just too trusting. However, when Templeton speaks � it often pays to listen.

Black Blade

(10/18/2003; 00:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110557)

China's 3rd-Qtr GDP Grows 9.1%, Faster Than Expected

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=ayiiWCFkVlKg&refer=asia
Snippit:

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's economic growth accelerated to 9.1 percent in the third quarter, driven by increased investment as Sony Corp. built factories and China United Telecommunications Corp. expanded its network to meet demand. The rate was higher than the 6.7 percent reported in the second quarter and the 8.7 percent median forecast of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Growth for the full year will probably be about 8.5 percent, the pace achieved in the first nine months, National Bureau of Statistics Deputy Director Qiu Xiaohua, said at a press briefing in Beijing.

China's economy, the sixth largest in the world, is growing more than twice as fast as the five biggest -- the U.S., Japan, Germany, the UK and France. Including Hong Kong, China is now the top export destination for South Korea and Taiwan and one of the three biggest overseas markets for Japan, Thailand and Singapore.

``China is really the engine that drives the entire region,'' Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer William Clay Ford Jr. said at a separate briefing in the Chinese capital. ``We do expect to expand aggressively in China.''

Ford, the world's No. 2 carmaker, today said it plans to spend as much as $1.5 billion boosting production at its plant in the city of Chongqing, southwestern China. The company, keen to grab a bigger slice of the world's fastest-growing auto market, said it will add a second factory and an engine-making plant.

Investment

Sony, the world's second-biggest consumer electronics maker, said it has invested $8 billion so far in China and predicts the country will become its No. 2 market -- behind the U.S. -- within five years. China Unicom, the nation's No. 2 mobile-phone-service provider, ordered a $139 million code- division-multiple-access network from Nortel Networks Corp. in the third quarter.

Even as incomes climb, Chinese wages are among the lowest in the world. The hourly pay for a Chinese manufacturing worker is 61 cents rather than the $16.14 paid in the U.S., according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Cheap labor is helping convince Sony, Siemens AG and other overseas companies to choose China as a hub for their operations. Siemens, the world's biggest engineering company, has invested more than $700 million in the 40 units it has in China. Chief Executive Officer Heinrich von Pierer, in an interview Monday with Der Spiegel magazine, said he could hire 12,000 Chinese software programmers for the cost of 2,000 German ones.

This strong economic performance may help President George W. Bush argue the case for China to adopt a more flexible exchange rate when he holds talks with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' summit in Bangkok this weekend. The U.S. says the yuan, pegged to the dollar since 1995, doesn't reflect China's robust fundamentals, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

``The economy is back to the trend of strong growth because the central bank has been increasing money supply since the second half of 2002,'' said Yusen Kwoh, chief economist at Millennium Capital Services Co. in Shanghai. Growth of M2, the broadest measure of the money supply, exceeded the bank's 18- percent target for a ninth straight month in September. Still, economic growth may slow in coming months after the central bank, concerned runaway credit poses a risk to economic growth, in June tightened rules governing lending to the property sector and last month raised banks' reserve requirements, a move it estimated would remove some 150 billion yuan from circulation.

Black Blade: I may write more on this at a later time. However, west coast shipping docks are stacked with empty cargo containers as goods are shipped to the US but nothing to ship back. The economy in China is definitely over heating and they must do something and soon. With the region holding a few $trillion US dollar debt what can they do? The Yuan is non-convertible into any currency except Gold and Silver (well OK, soon platinum too). When the precious metals market becomes truly liberalized and more retail outlets are available across the nation it is a no brainer that precious metals investment will boom in China as it's the only currency that is convertible. Foreign licenses are now being issued to PM retailers. This is just on of several new developments that will give physical gold and silver demand a powerful kick higher. Of the major Asian holders of US debt in their reserves and a nonconvertible national currency I believe that China will be using that debt to diversify into other currencies and substantially increase its physical precious metals to add to its reserves. Or maybe they will be the first in the region to "cut and run" to sell off US debt if they feel threatened while under pressure to readjust or float the yuan. Regardless, one certain winner will be precious metals. As for the old Marxist guard in China they have contracted something worse than SARS � it's "capitalism"! Yep, the genie is out of the bottle for good now.

Liberty Head

(10/18/2003; 00:45:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110558)

Your points are well reasoned, backed by factual evidence, research and experience. The logic is sound. I respect your opinions and appreciate your comments and tone. I thank you.
I can say the same for the article I posted.
Both arguments are peppered with opinions and "if statements" pertaining to future events. In this regard they are both "non sense", yet valuable.
I am amazed there are so many divergent viewpoints all leading to the same conclusion, gold.

Best Wishes

specie-man

(10/18/2003; 01:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110559)

portfolio diversification

Black Blade wrote:
"In truth both gold and silver are rare and precious. As such, I have both (and platinum to a smaller extent as well) in my portfolio for "insurance". "

Don't forget about the other white metal - palladium, which might actually be the best deal going at current prices.

specie-man

(10/18/2003; 01:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110560)

What would YOU do ?

Suppose you had the opportunity to borrow a significant amount of US dollars for use in purchasing precious metals. Would you do it, and if so, what is the highest interest rate that you would be willing to pay ?

I'm attempting to determine the average "pain threshold" for gold/metal bugs. Or, indirectly, what is the average expected yearly percentage gain in precious metal prices (in US dollars) going forward.

PS: I'm not in a position to borrow funds for such a purpose myself. But if I was, I would consider 5% to be my "threshold".

Belgian

(10/18/2003; 02:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110561)

Good Morning GAB....

In 1971, France's General de Gaulle, an Eurolander avant la lettre, demanded GOLD for dollar-paper. Euroland robbed the US$-system's Gold and shipped it to the old continent.

This same Euroland has its own euro-paper now AND the GOLD !
I don't mind that you stubbornly don't want to see the historical and growing association of Euroland paper AND GOLD ! But, note that the EMU-12 had to bring some of their GOLD to the clubhouse...the ECB !!!

Give me ONE single argument where we can conclude that the euro-paper will be managed to zero, when ECB (= euro-paper manager) gold reserves are structured with the mark to market principle ! Only one sound argument, dear Batbird !

Then answer my question...WHAT will set GOLD FREE ! Have a Nice weekend.

Dollar Bill

(10/18/2003; 06:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110562)

*>*............+

"A Homeland Security Department official said earlier this week that recent information indicates al Qaeda is continuing to plan attacks, including strikes within the United States.
"We have received a lot of good information from these detainees over the past several weeks and corroborated the fact there were active plans, ongoing, to conduct another attack in the United States," William H. Parrish, an intelligence official with the department, told the Associated Press.
"This attack, as they indicated, was probably going to be multiple attacks � simultaneous," he said.
Another U.S. official said al Qaeda could strike targets in several places, including the Persian Gulf, East Africa and Southeast Asia, as well as Europe and the United States."

Sir Robert,
Where I agree that there is strenth to the system in place, and Central Bankers and global politicians self interest may keep them in line with the dollar...
Those that want to destroy our economies are organized and have a religious inspiration, granted, it is twisted, but they CAN take us down.
Gold will have a market no matter what.

Dollar Bill

(10/18/2003; 06:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110563)

*>*.........+

Doug Nolan today;

"The great American economist Hyman Minsky was known � and harshly criticized - for arguing that Capitalism is "flawed." Much of his analysis evolved from his brilliant understanding of the "roaring twenties" and the subsequent financial collapse and Great Depression. Liberally paraphrasing Minsky, there are miraculous attributes of risk-taking and profit-seeking in the real economy that interplay with the financial system's tenacity for achieving both earnings gains and expansion. But, when left unchecked, there is a propensity for over-expansion and increasingly risky behavior. The system can run out of control, which spawns financial fragility, economic distortions, and eventual self-destruction.

Minsky's powerful analysis is quite pertinent today. But I would argue that instead of "flawed," Capitalism is, instead, inherently vulnerable. I will try out my Eyeball Analogy: One could argue that there is a serious "flaw" in the design of our eyeballs � something with such a critical function shouldn't be so soft, delicate, and left unprotected to the elements. Yet it is the very nature of this organ's amazing functionality and capabilities that create its vulnerability. Your eyeball and Capitalism are not flawed, but they are � by their very nature � Inherently Vulnerable."

cockerel1

(10/18/2003; 07:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110564)

Dear Sir Belgian,

With respect,

If I alluded to give you the impression, as you stated above, I sincerely apologize. Eurolands problems are their own. They are not a fabrication of the situation within the U.S.

If I gave you the impression that the dollar system should be allowed any "lifeline" to continue, I apologize. Again this was not my intent.

From Sir Great Albino Bat:

To this I add only one thing: That the Euro is a currency forced upon the European people, by a select few, and the average "jean and marie-six-pack" resent it, and that will aid its eventual demise.

And now to try and explain, in my own humble style, why Europe has its own problems.

To have a successful transittion you need to have everyone pulling in the same direction, not just control by the PTB.

The European average joe(s) are very proud of their individual countries, but have been reluctantly led to believe that this "union" is what is needed to "go forward", to compete against the U.S. So say TPTB.

As I wrote in a previous post, when you give the common people the power to choose, he will normally do what is utlimately right.

Example: The Canadian referendum on accepting Quebec as a distinct society. The PTB and the rest of the "Elites" were soundly defeated and now those same PTB see any referendum as a "no-go".

"Don't want to wake up the great unwashed".

TPTB in Sweden tried and failed with their refusal to accept the Euro, and in speaking to some of the common people within Euroland, that decision was the right one.

Sir Belgian, the problem that Euroland has, is that TPTB try to impose what is good for the powerful, onto the backs of the common people and try to sugar coat it as if they had a choice.

Well, choice is an illusion created by those with power, over those without.

TPTB set the rules. TPTB will change the rules. Of that there can be no doubt!

If this is rambled and hard to understand, please accept my apologies.

cockerel1

(10/18/2003; 08:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110565)

Sir Belgian - continuation!

U.S v Euroland v Asia.

Sounds to me like a three sided soccer game, with un-enforcable rules.

A definite recipe for disaster.

Surely, in the short term, the U.S. and Euroland need to find common ground, if they are indeed to survive against the formidable "opponent?".

In the short term, TPTB will use whatever ammunition they can muster, to try and position themselves into the controlling position, all at the expense of average joe-six-pack, and all in the name of control.

What a world we live in!

cockerel1

(10/18/2003; 08:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110566)

And one more!

This from Jim Sinclair yesterday.

Says it all, IMO.

mikal

(10/18/2003; 09:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110567)

@Black Blade

Re: Your msg# 110548
"When the bond market tanks, interest rates will rise."

I agree with that. But the economy as we know it, including absurd levels of credit-induced public and private consumption, overproduction and illiquid debt-swaps, will be unrecognizable when trillions in rate-sensitive financial derivatives meet imminent implosion.
There is no steering a middle course down this twisting road though we may wish there was a more intelligent autopilot.

Belgian

(10/18/2003; 09:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110568)

@cockerell

Thanks for responding.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/18/2003; 10:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110569)

A complete gold investment education in 175 pages for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm." (order info)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Great Albino Bat

(10/18/2003; 18:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110570)

Dear Sir Belgian: I have ruffled your feathers, perhaps....

But, please, do not take it so hard! And as for referring to the GAB as "Batbird", please note that we Bats, Sub Specie Great Albino, are mammals, not birds.

You wrote earlier:

"Give me ONE single argument where we can conclude that the euro-paper will be managed to zero, when ECB (= euro-paper manager) gold reserves are structured with the mark to market principle ! Only one sound argument, dear Batbird !

"Then answer my question...WHAT will set GOLD FREE ! Have a Nice weekend."

First of all, in the interest of not having a rational discussion degenerate into name calling, Sir, please do not refer to my arguments as "stubborn", as you have done. All this adjective means, is that I am saying something you do not like, for whatever reason.

Now to answer your request for "one single argument". The argument is as follows; and I should like the opinions of others on this Forum, as to whether my answer is logical or not:

The Euro is a managed paper currency that will tend to zero, until such time as it becomes strictly redeemable into gold at a fixed rate. The reserves may be gigantic, and marked to market as high as we can imagine, and that will be some consolation to holders of the Euro, while the Euro is not redeemable, for it will give the Euro holders hope that such thing may come to pass in the future.

However, the value of reserves is only psychologically relative, in the form of a hope, until they actually become an inviolable guarantee of redemption at a fixed rate.

When the Euro becomes redeemable - let us hope such a thing comes to pass! - then, it will be a master currency and the world's money, and long may it last. Until such a happy event, all we have is a hope that the managers of the Euro do a good job and delay its decline as long as possible - which is what the U.S. managers of the dollar are trying to do, fruitlessly, and only delaying what is now clearly inevitable.

It is difficult to visualize a redeemable Euro, because the managers of the Euro will be under continuous pressure to debauch it by issuing ever greater amounts of Euro. This is due to the ingrained ideas of the European population, with regard to the obligation of governments to provide them with things they need or think they need, without having earned them. And since these populations have the vote, they will exert tremendous pressure on the Euro managers.

BUT, until the Euro is redeemable and the populations of Europe understand that there is absolutely no way to get more than they have earned, by way of government handouts, the Euro will be a managed paper currency which will decline over time, until it reaches zero.

"Tertium non datur". There is no third option.

Your question: What will set gold free?

Gold is actually, and always has been free, in the sense that in most parts of the world, people are free to purchase it. Where it has been prohibited, there has been a black market. Even in China, as I understand it, individuals are free to purchase gold - I may be mistaken here, but that seems to be the case, so far as I know.

What is not free, is the price of gold. It is being held down, "managed" if you will, by the U.S. and still, perhaps, by other governments collaborating in this job. This is my suspicion. Perhaps even the ECB is collaborating in this job, in view of the cataclysmic effect of not controlling the price.

Of course, the principal party interested in the control and suppression of the gold price, is the US Establishment.

However, just like any country that has an overvalued currency and an enormous fiscal deficit, the US Establishment is fighting a creature with power much greater than its own: the world market.

As Sir John Templeton has said, the dollar must lose 40% of its value soon. The US Establishment will have to "throw in the towel" and admit the victory of the world market for gold, over its power of control and suppression. This will happen sooner or later. Then, the price of gold is going to rise sharply, very sharply. Whether to the moon or not, we do not know, as the other world powers have their plans, which we ignore.

I'd like to have gold go "to the moon", but things in this world don't often work the way we should like to see them work. At a sharply higher price, there may be further interventions or "controls" to suppress the price of gold, which threatens all world currencies, bar none. Just because the US Establishment is ignominiously defeated, does not mean that the rest of the world powers will just stand by and let gold rise freely. They *may*, and then they also may not.

ON THE OTHER HAND (I am a two handed economist!) if as you say, gold redemption for any currency is an impossibility, then the world is in for an extremely dark future. And that may be the case! In a world with only irredeemable currencies as a *permanent fixture* the future can only be total barbarization and the disappearance of industrial civilization.

It is not gold that is a "barbarous relic", as Keynes said; it is managed currencies, paper currencies, that cannot possibly provide a basis for human civilization under the division of labor. That is the great problem we are facing.

"All men die, few are witness to great events, and fewer still understand what they have seen." COR TAURI.

Thank you for reading, Belgian and others, and I will not post more on this subject - unless provoked.

The GAB

Great Albino Bat

(10/18/2003; 19:10:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110571)

Black Blade's Templeton post #110556, the first on todays's board:

That wise and experienced investor in the biggest leagues, Sir John Templeton, has spoken, and his words are ominous indeed.

To me they spell out a terrible message that cannot be ignored:

The U.S. is going to impose exchange controls. No funds will exit the US without official permission, and this situation, though unsustainable indefinitely, will last a long time, by which I mean at least twenty years.

Exchange controls. This goes with the present thinking of the Administration, of "fortress America", besieged on all sides by "people who hate America" - the explanation given to the masses for a situation which is certainly not just "people hate America", a convenient way to cover a multitude of errors in government.

That psychology is defensive, it is not outgoing into the world. That goes with exchange controls, a withdrawal from the world.

Tariffs on imports will go up. Way up. Imports will be subject to controls, since imports require payments which are the subject of control.

"Buy American!" will be the slogan again. It will mean higher prices for goods of less quality.

Foreign bondholders will be left outside, holding bonds which if not worthless, will be worth pennies on the dollar.
So much for the enormous foreign debt.

Controls and more controls, means bureaucracy and more bureaucracy. And also, more and more black market, more and more people detained for black market operations. There will be great opportunities for the well-connected to find ways around the controls, as always happens. The market is a beast with a million heads, not all of them can be cut off. If you know the right people, you can send your money abroad, perhaps by a complex series of operations, beyond the scope of the mass of people.

Sir John Templeton did not mention exchange controls, but they are implied in every word he spoke. Practically written in stone.

As for "reserve currency status" - it's "good-by to all that!"

Enjoy the weekend, all!

The GAB

Cavan Man

(10/18/2003; 19:27:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110572)

Is this included in the $87 BILLION?

Where does it all come from?MANILA: US President George W Bush told the Philippine Congress on Saturday the United States would provide funding and technical assistance to modernise and reform the country's military.

CM comment FWIW: The military/industrial complex is running amok. We are indeed a militaristic state.

Cavan Man

(10/18/2003; 19:30:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110573)

@GAB

GAB: JT was said to be a friend of FOA (by FOA). The subject of exchange controls was mentioned a long ways back on the trail. Also, that the 92 year old JT expected to see a huge rise in AU price in his lifetime.

(10/18/2003; 20:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110574)

Why Gold, Why Now? For the record....Additions to the national debt, month of October, 2003

10/16/2003 $6,830,709,313,106.40
10/15/2003 $6,819,991,274,100.25
10/14/2003 $6,816,232,489,123.39
10/10/2003 $6,815,997,835,664.82
10/09/2003 $6,818,335,215,910.51
10/08/2003 $6,815,762,633,308.91
10/07/2003 $6,817,256,800,753.20
10/06/2003 $6,814,440,215,107.91
10/03/2003 $6,812,573,929,325.08
10/02/2003 $6,805,599,570,918.78
10/01/2003 $6,804,504,127,055.70

09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62

_______

Your eyes are not deceiving you. That's $47.5 billion added to the national debt in just 15 days.

Cavan Man

(10/18/2003; 20:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110575)

@MK

Just when I am thinking and feeling like the "Forerunner" I see your post tonight.

I am very concerned about US foreign, fiscal and monetary policy. I think we have embarked upon a path from which there is no return. I worry for my children, nephews, nieces, cousins, sisters etc. I have this worry deep in my bones though I am constantly doing a paranoia (self) check while monitoring my cynicism count.

I grateful to you beyond any mere, poorly chosen words I can muster. As the Greeks say.... EF-HAH-REE-STOH. Best...CM

(10/18/2003; 23:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110576)

Rothbard on Future ( Written quite a long time ago)

http://www.mises.org/money/4s9.asp"As we face the future, the prognosis for the dollar and for the international monetary system is grim indeed. Until and unless we return to the classical gold standard at a realistic gold price, the international money system is fated to shift back and forth between fixed and fluctuating exchange rates with each system posing unsolved problems, working badly, and finally disintegrating."..

"This prognosis can only be changed by a drastic alteration of the American and world monetary system: by the return to a free market commodity money such as gold, and by removing government totally from the monetary scene."

Belgian

(10/19/2003; 01:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110577)

@GAB

Thanks for the clear response. And maybe you are right,...we better let the subject of FREEGOLD, rest in peace !?

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/19/2003; 07:08:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110578)

@From the other side - is this verifiable??

Date: Sat Oct 18 2003 23:27
surfer (Just arrived back from Germany.) ID#149180:
Copyright � 2002 surfer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Customs wouldn't let me bring my green $20's back with me.

Had to exchange them for colored $20's.

They were doing just the opposite to the foreigners leaving.

What does all this mean ?

WAC: I hope I haven't broken by posting the above, it's just that in the light of the current discussions on exchange controls etc, I thought it relevant.

Caradoc

(10/19/2003; 07:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110579)

colorized versus green 20s

It would certainly qualify as "interesting" if it can be confirmed that US Customs has begun enforcing a policy of new colorized bills inside the US and keeping "greenies" outside the nation's borders. If there is to be a two-tiered system, the rationale can be pitched as keeping the easier-to-counterfeit greenies and illicit drug profits out of the country. Next step would be to define an exchange rate between the suspect green currency (that the citizens of foreign nations hold so much of) and the hot-off the press "good" currency which foreigners have none of.

Any confirmation of this rumor would be appreciated. As for what it means, it means "buy gold."

Caradoc

Humble Pie

(10/19/2003; 08:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110580)

#10577

Gold is in my view forever free, the people who are in pursuit are not.

misetich

(10/19/2003; 09:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110581)

Overcapacity Stalls New Jobs

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/19/business/19SOAP.htmlSnip:

CINCINNATI � Much of the public outcry over America's failure to generate jobs has focused lately on a surge in the outsourcing of work to China and India. But another dynamic closer to home is weighing on job creation � the slow process of working through a glut of boom-era investment that continues to litter the economy with underused factories
.....................
That is true with a vengeance today. Not since the severe recession of the early 1980's has capacity use in manufacturing stayed so low for so long, government data show.
.................
Struggling to get rid of this costly glut, many companies continue to shut plants and lay off the workers, as the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company is doing in Huntsville, Ala., where it is closing a tire plant that employs 1,100 people.
......................
********************
Misetich

Overcapacity - coupled with weak growth demand, ( never mind the bullcrap of GDP growth numbers published by the Feds)is plaguing the famed "expected magical US economic recovery" - Whilst at this point and time the Feds have stalled the stock market bubble burst effect somewhat by lowering IR, cutting taxes, increasing military and government, spending - THEY ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET -

Actually things got worse as most if not ALL of the ammunition has been used up in attempting to damage control -

Sir Greenspan vowed the US is not Japan and could cope much much better in handling a SM bubble burst - Yet here we are 3 years later, government surpluses have turned to astronimical deficits, trade deficits still increasing, debt levels are much much higher, jobs have been lost, and are still being lost, local governments, state and federal government are in dire strait with their deflating pension plans values, taxes intakes, the stock market is in bubble territory again, as are bonds and housing

The last card is being played - the US $ valuation -

Would hate to be a foreigner holding the famed US $ as a reserve currency and watching the portfolio facing the abyss

Japan's is still feeling the effects of their SM bubble fraud 13 years later

No the US is not Japan - or is it?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Remarx

(10/19/2003; 09:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110582)

Re: Templeton and Foreign Bonds

I was just researching investment in foreign bonds, as recommended in BB's article snip from John Templeton -- then I came across GAB's warning about exchange controls.

Have controls been passed by the US on foreign bonds in the past? What happened/will happen to people's money if they currently hold foreign bonds when the controls are instituted? Are their investments simply made non-existent, or is it that by forcing people to divest all at once the values drop, thereby yielding "pennies to a dollar"?

misetich

(10/19/2003; 10:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110583)

A System Going Under? Projected Pension Shortfalls Turn Focus to Reform

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44596-2003Oct18.htmlSnip:

But Schmeizer's retirement plans were knocked out cold last year, when Bethlehem went into bankruptcy and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC), the government pension insurance arm, took over the company's pension plans. And while that means Schmeizer's pension will not vanish, it will be cut to $1,700 a month.

Schmeizer, 56, observed wryly to a Senate committee last week that company and union officials had assured Bethlehem workers that "the sky would have to fall" for them not to get their full pensions.

"Well, the sky did fall," he said.
..................
The country's entire retirement income structure is being battered by an unprecedented wave of demographic and economic changes. Just as Social Security's pay-as-you-go arrangement is being pressured by the rising number of retirees and the shrinking number of active workers, so established companies that sponsor traditional pensions are increasingly paying huge retiree costs when newer competitors have none.

In addition, the stock market plunge that began in 2000 has combined with falling interest rates to reduce asset values and boost liabilities for traditional pension plans. In many cases, this has triggered painful new funding requirements for employers. General Motors, for example, said last week that it has poured $13.5 billion into its pension funds recently and may kick in as much as $6 billion more in the coming months.
..................
"As baby boomers near retirement, the pension system is wobbling," Peter R. Orszag of the Brookings Institution concluded at a pension conference there this year.
......................
Many of the surviving plans are underfunded, meaning that their assets would not be sufficient to pay promised benefits if they were terminated today.
.....................

Like GM, many of these companies will soon be required to pour large amounts of cash into their pension plans. In part, this is because an old rule tying liability calculations to the interest rate on the 30-year Treasury bond has magnified the cost of these pensions. Combined with the stock market slump, this rule has pushed many plans that were fully funded a few years ago, when the market was riding high, deeply into the red.
***************
Misetich

What a mess! and it is still unravelling - SM indices are being propped by constant manipulative interventions and yet individual portfolios are still decimated

Pension fund managers increased their allocations from secure investments to higher risks such as stock and these managers collected a handsome return for their successful gambles - yet the poor worker is stuck with the subsequent loss

...Unfortunately its not just the "worker" that has lost but the whole financial structure

Feeble attempts and lip service has been rendered to rectify the problems however not recognizing the real issue is leading these Egomanics Feds into the false illusion of being able to Fix-IT

The real problem is just that the Financial System is not operating by natural market forces but induced and controlled and to "behave" as they "ought to be" -

Case and example Japan has been artificially intervening in currencies to control the appreciating of the Yen - $120 billions later the Yen has increased its value vis-a-vis the US $ by at least 10 points

ANOTHER example that they cannot "manage' the behaviour of the market in the long run

The savage unravelling (in Fed speak is referred as "deflation") is continuing notwithstanding the current "upblip" in housing, and stocks which are both unsustainable as the REAL ECONOMY is not reflective of their values as jobs are not being created, as Real Savings are at the lowest levels in years, and as Foreigners are being counted upon to fund the US economy

Fear and greed - Fear and greed is what fuels bull markets?

Which one Fiat or Physical Gold is the current bull trend and for many years to come?

Whichone is being manipulated? Both are - One Up (Fiat) One down (Physical Gold" through paper proxies)

The natural forces of nature and physics are being challenged by Egomaniacs Feds and CB's

Lets stay tuned as they are being taught a lesson

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

(10/19/2003; 11:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110586)

Cavan Man: The Coming Currency Crisis; Bush's Venture to the East To Be Titled "The Anatomy of the Hard Sell" Cavan Man: The Coming Currency Crisis; Bush's Venture to the East To Be Titled "The Anatomy of a Hard Sell"

Thanks for your kind regards, C-Man as well as the opportunity to pass along a few of my thoughts these days.

Your concerns are not misplaced. Even the U.S. Comptroller General, in what I consider to have been a courageous speech, recently lamented the burden being placed on future generations of Americans by the national debt -- now approaching as we saw yesterday $7 trillion. His speech is featured in the upcoming News & Views. He, like you, made Jeffersonian reference to the injustice this generation is placing on future generations. It is not paranoia -- but well placed concern. In his speech I detected disdain for what is being perpetrated on the American people by its government making a reference to "Federal Reserve Notes, which we call dollars......." He talked of a looming fiscal disaster if something is not done now. But he is probably new to the anti-federal debt game, and still naive enough to believe that politicians might have an interest in forcing the government to live within its revenue stream. It can't. It won't.

I appreciate your thoughtful posting which I can tell comes from the heart (as well as mind). Too bad the politicians in Washington only mouth those same concerns for political purposes without understanding their full import. This group is so far from the type of people who founded this country, that it's pathetic. Underneath the meticulously verbalized platitudes about balancing the budget, lowering taxes, and the rest, moral or philosophical grounding is secretly considered a weakness. In the Beltway getting elected and political affiliation takes precedence over doing what's right for the country. I'm not a Pollyanna on this because I don't believe it will ever change the political process being what it is, but at the same time we would be fools to believe that it's any different than what I just described. And we should plan accordingly. . .

And please understand that I am just as quick to place the blame on knee-jerk Republicans (who never saw a defense spending program they didn't like) as I am knee-jerk Democrats (who never saw a welfare program they didn't like). Note, too, that the Democratic Party said little about the deficits when they held the White House. The Democrat-leaning press kept the problem under their collective hats. Now that a Republican is in office, the deficits are back on the front pages. A long time ago, I came to the conclusion that politics should not be a profession, but something one does in service to his or her country after accomplishing something in life. That's why I have been a long-time supporter of term limits, de-centralized government and returning the primary revenue recipients to state, city and county governments. Let the services be delivered where they are needed by the people paying for them. I think you'd see some changes.

Beyond that, I'm bipartisan in my criticism of the economic policy prevalent in Washington DC. The Republicans historically run the largest deficits, while the huge gains in the national debt over the last decade can be logged to social programs, not defense -- a Democrat proclivity. There's not much opposition to the deficits themselves -- not in reality -- but in who gets to spend them. Meanwhile, every man, woman and child in the United States is shackled with a debt burden of $23,380.88 as of today thanks to the misplaced generosity of the Congress and President with the citizenry's future earnings. By the way, that burden automatically accrues at birth, so once again, your concerns about nieces, nephews, sons and daughters is well-placed.

But I have never seen the solution as going back on the gold standard as so many do here. I don't quarrel with the approach, and would simply adjust to it if it were to occur, but I think we would be far better off with a balanced budget amendment and a floating exchange rate for gold so that the citizenry could more or less vote with its checkbook whenever they saw the government diverge from the course, and buy gold. Fixed exchange rates, including a government mandated gold price, leads to draconian gold measures usually including a sterilization of private gold holdings on some level (usually through price fixing and capital controls) and confiscation when big money would rather own gold than the government issued currency, thus threatening the viability of the banks. The idea of floating value gold money would be impractical. Every cashier in the country would be forced to become money-changers of sorts and we would all be spending a lot of time waiting in line while each transaction was pegged to the ever-changing gold price -- the flaw in Rothbard's prescription. We do not need the ultimate solution.

With respect to marking gold reserves to market, as long as Europe marks the euro/dollar exchange rate first and then the price of gold,it is not marking gold to the market, but to the dollar. The real market for gold in Europe should be determined by how many euros the European gold market is prepared to pay for an ounce of gold, not the euro-dollar exchange rate tied to a managed market for gold made in London and New York.

When Europe inaugurates a free euro gold price disassociated from the dollar, it will have accomplished something for itself and all those around the world who own gold. It will have also finally broken away from the dollar. It is true that marking gold to market -- instead of dictating its reserve value as the the United States does -- is a step in the right direction, but it is not a panacea. At present, all that Europe has accomplished is to adjust the reserve value of its gold to the euro/dollar exchange rate, and I do not consider that to be all that revolutionary.

I hope my European friends take these criticisms in the spirit in which they are offered. I am a friend of Europe, but not one to look the other way when I think a friend needs to do more to make his or her situation better. My criticism of the US monetary policies is just as sharp.

Let Europe price gold in euros according to the free market and be willing to tender those reserves in payment for goods and services overseas (at least once), and then we'll see how serious it is about making government gold friendly. That being said, in all fairness, I do not see how Europe can go further on gold than it has in the absence of an international agreement between the major trading powers -- including China. What Europe is doing now is all it can do statutorily in gold's favor under the current system without throwing it into complete chaos, so I admire their forward look in that respect.

In short, we cannot expect Europe to break away on a full run from the current monetary system, so we should be grateful that at least Europe has shown itself to be pro-gold to the extent it has. I believe that a new monetary arrangement is in the cards for our collective futures certainly within the next ten years, and quite possibly in less than five, as the gaping cracks in the current system particularly with respect to the current currency relationship (between EU and the US on one hand the EU and the US with Asia on the other). I expect a major monetary conference to be convened at some point in the not too distant future to construct a new international monetary system, and I believe the Mundell/EU system will be used as a foundation. We will see then how serious both the EU and US are about making their gold reserves available to defend their currencies (and equity markets denominated in that currency!) It remains illogical to me that the primary industrial power in Europe is willing to give up a large proportion of its gold reserve while simultaneously proclaiming gold a valuable reserve asset. . . If Germany needs to make gold available as part of a "lender of last resort" operation to bail out key commercial bullion banks, then it should say so. At least then, the notion would not conflict with other statements about the value of gold as a national reserve asset.

Further, I suspect that this news monetary agreement cannot be negotiated now, as each country pursues its own self-centered policy and totally incapable of reaching agreement with its trading partners on currency policy. If we are to suffer, we must all suffer together -- by agreement. Until then, the politicians of each nation will pursue policies believed to be in the best interest of that particular nation state. The impetus for the next Bretton Woods will come when this system breaks down, which it is destined to do utterly and completely. Before that, and quite possibly even after, there will be plenty of incentive to own gold, and there will be plenty of incentive on the part of the politicians to come to terms. It's because the international monetary crisis will come first that people all over the world would be well-served to bolster their personal reserves now. There is not a currency in the world that will go unaffected.

George Bush's exploits this weekend in Asia could be made into a movie called "The Anatomy of a Hard Sell". China's economy grew 9% last quarter and there's talk of the Chinese economy overheating. Japan still feels it can export its way out of its institutional problems (no matter how long it takes). These are not countries willing to alter their course. So where do we go from here? The March of Folly, as you called it, my good Cavan Man, continues unabated, and personal gold ownership remains the best policy, no matter where you live.

Lupo

(10/19/2003; 11:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110587)

Caveman's phrase

Hellow everyone. I am a new poster, long time lurker since 1999. I have always loved the title of Barbara Thuchman's book The March of Folly. I believe the former professor from Yale is deceased. The thrust of the book, was to answer the guestion of why Nations/States could pursue polices " So obviously contrary to their own self interest". I have a guestion for the forum. Having just finished, for the second time, reading the opus of Another/FOA, Why have the predictions concerning the cornering of the gold market that they illustrated not yet come to pass. At the time they were writing, these predictions were deamed imminant!! What changed? MK, why did they stop posting, and do you think they will be back? What do you really know!!!!

Gandalf the White

(10/19/2003; 12:27:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110588)

WELCOME Sir Lupo !!! GREAT Questions !!

Lupo (10/19/03; 11:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110587)
===
I too await the answers !
<;-)

Robert

(10/19/2003; 12:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110589)

new twenty dollar bill

The total amount of US$ currency held abroad in form of cash (actual bills and coins) is a tiny percentage of the total US debt held by foreign central banks, institutions and individuals. That amount is less than the trade deficit accumulated within a few months (really peanuts when viewed from a national accounting point of view). The idea that the new Dollar bill is being introduced in order to create a two tier Dollar currency is therefore total nonsense. The US government would have to become insane in order to even consider such a silly idea.

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 13:14:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110590)

^_^

Mogumbo;

"- Had a nice accidental, casual conversation with a securities broker at a bank, who opined that the eerie parallels of the USA circa 2003 with USA circa 1929 are inconsequential. In explaining that curious statement, she said that the big difference is that, today, the markets and everything are all so manipulated and corrupt that it is impossible for the stock market to fall, the bond market to fall, or anything bad to happen! So, stocks are guaranteed to always go up!

"Hmmm!" I said to myself. "Market timing based on level of direct manipulation and corruption! Very interesting!" This may be the most curious of bull-market rationales that I ever heard!

And, by extension, and this is in response to a direct question from me, he thinks that the Great Depression would not have happened at all if only everyone had manipulated the stock market back then! And because of this, and by the power vested in her by her securities license, she is advising full, 100% investment in the stock market.

As I drove out of the parking lot, I thought about it. Hmmmm.

And this leads me directly to an article by Mary Williams Walsh, who wrote a column in the New York Times entitled "To Cover Pension Promises, Governments Turn To Bonds." The problem is that the jackasses in government have made so many promises to so many people that they cannot possibly pay them out of current income, and are going into debt to get a little spending money right now, with the absolutely preposterously stupid idea that sometime in the future they CAN pay their promises out of current income AND pay down the debt, too! Hahaha!

She writes, "The cities and states have to pay a fixed rate of interest on the bonds, and are essentially betting they can earn a higher rate of return by investing the proceeds in their pension funds." Of course, this is ridiculous, and the point is made when Ms. Walsh follows that up with, "But recent investment losses have already left some cities and states on the hook for a mounting debt, covering not just the retirement money for their workers but also the interest on the bonds. New Orleans, Pittsburgh and New Jersey have all placed losing bets in recent years."

New Orleans recounts how slick PaineWebber salesmen convinced city officials that this was some get-rich-quick-scheme and pocketed hefty fees for pulling it off. Now New Orleans is paying the price, of course.

The bad news is, re-reading the headline of the article, that MORE governments are now wading into that diseased swamp in desperation."

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(10/19/2003; 13:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110591)

Blair admitted to hospital

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3205888.stmThe prime minister was admitted to hospital at lunchtime on Sunday suffering from an irregular heart beat.

Downing Street has confirmed that Tony Blair went to Hammersmith Hospital's coronary care unit after he felt unwell.

BBC correspondent Clarence Mitchell said Mr Blair was kept in for five to six hours but has since left the hospital.

He said doctors established that he had an irregular heart beat which causes fluctuations and palpitations.

A procedure known as a cardio conversion was carried out, he said.

Chris Powell

(10/19/2003; 13:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110592)

Barron's interviews James Turk

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1730Here's the Barron's interview with GoldMoney founder
and GATA consultant James Turk.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Liberty Head

(10/19/2003; 14:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110593)

Robert

Once again you are selectively using truths or laws that support your thesis and ignoring those that don't.
Would you buy a car battery that only had a positive pole?
I wouldn't.

Gold dealers are as eager to change gold for dollars, as they are to change dollars for gold.

Of course selfish, greedy, mean-spirited attributes exist in every one of us. Certainly, there is more to us than that.

I promote gold because I value liberty based order.
As Murray Rothbard says "Liberty is the mother, not the daughter, of order."

Best Wishes

Goldendome

(10/19/2003; 14:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110594)

Some Great Posts today!

Misetech: Your concerns about the growing future budget deficits brought about by the ballooning Government social programs are certainly well founded. The former treasury secretary (whose name escapes me now) got into trouble for proposing a report showing a looming and shocking $44 trillion dollar deficit looming in Federal unfunded liabilities. I think you ask, as do many of us who can see beyond our noses: How is this all to be funded? The only answer that most of us see is just by printing more f.r. notes...shockingly increasing tax rates...or by cutting the benefits now promised... or some combination of the above. Any time I am reminded, as you have done here, of these out-year problems, compounding on our present deficits, I am comforted by the fact that we own gold, as BB and Robert remind us as insurance against financial disaster!

Robert: I appreciate your candor in asking, Why are we Gold bugs accumulating? Is it for the insurance aspects against a collapse of the U.S. and world financial system...or is it an attempt to score a quick profit. Our frustrations often might point to the latter. I do believe that most here see the long term problems [such as response to Misetech above]. One other aspect that folds in also, is the "out of Gov'ts sight, out of mind", comfort that comes with owning a wealth asset that no one knows about. Unlike real estate or cash in the bank were Gov't simply knowing you have it, makes you subject to taxation or perhaps in future years, Gov't envy as they look around for sources of income to fund their pet programs.

MK: Since we dip judiciously from the bowl of politics today, let me add this: In my opinion, we can't slip more than a sheet of paper between the differences in the two major parties today. They are both about the same thing: ACCUMULATING POWER AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, and in conjunction with that minimizing and voiding as many provisions possible, in both the Constitution and the Bill of Rights that reserves any power to the states and the individuals.
Oddly enough, the supposed party of individuel rights (hah!) has been the party that has brought us all the new big government programs in the past thirty years, i.e., environmental protection agency, Osha, disabilities act, and now the medicare prescription program.

Wish Ron Paul was running for something other than congress. I'll probably once again squander my vote on some hopeless 3rd, 4th , or 5th party. Any good sound money parties or candidates out there, anyone? ----------Gdome

Remarx

(10/19/2003; 14:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110595)

Grounded Thoughts

I appreciated some of the seasoned, non-apocalyptic thoughts from MK and Robert today. I think the real value of PMs can be lost sometimes in hyperbole.

In particular, MK's recommendation with respect to the future use of gold as an external value-floating check on monetary value rather than a standard is food for a substantial amount of thought.

Also, Robert's/BB's point on gold as insurance is well-taken. In the first few months as a PM owner, I found myself being caught up in the daily POG, when it really shouldn't matter as long as it is priced relatively fairly with respect to the value of the dollar. Other newbies might miss that point in the obsession with high market prices. While I am glad to have the safety net, I certainly do not wish for high prices and the economic meltdown to come. I even hope we are all wrong here, and that some means will be found for avoiding economic catastrophe.

Thanks for the thought-provoking posts!

Liberty Head

(10/19/2003; 15:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110596)

Supplement to my previous post

Re: Murray Rothbard Quote "Liberty is the mother, not the daughter, of order."

I would add "Responsibilty is the father, not the son, of order.

Best Wishes

Druid

(10/19/2003; 15:53:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110597)

Robert (10/19/03; 10:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 110585)

"On the subject of free gold: Everybody knows that it is very easy to buy gold (some of the gold dealers will even accept your credit card in case you do not have the cash to pay for it). So the word "free gold" can not possibly mean freely avaiable gold. In fact, gold is freely avaiable (as long as you can pay for it). When talking about "free gold" people actually have something completely different in mind. By "free" they mean the freedom of gold PRICES in fiat Dollars. More precisely, the freedom of gold prices to go UP. You have read expressions like "to the moon", $30,000 per ounce etc. Why do these people wish so desperately that gold prices should "go to the moon"? Could it be that these guys are already tired of holding their gold and wish to sell their gold at very high prices? Do these people really want to sell wealth (remember gold is WEALTH) for fiat? Do these guys love fiat more than gold? If that is the case, then they are promoting the idea of gold as a ponzi scheme (to make money if you succeed to get out early). In their view, gold is not an object of eternal wealth never to be sold (only to be hold forever by your family). No, people who talk about "free gold" view gold simply as a financial tool to make money. It is easy to imagine that if gold does indeed "go to the moon" and prices reach levels like $30,000 per ounce, then we will hit extremely difficult economic times accompanied by general misery and desperation. I can only conclude that people talking about "free gold" are not only selfish in their mind but also mean-spirited in their hearts without much concern for the welfare of their fellow citizen."

Druid: I personally would be interested in your conclusions about the people that have set this financial paper house of cards up. I don't think they have done our "fellow citizen" a great deal of good. I buy gold as "insurance" against the value of a dollar going to zero.

DryWasher

(10/19/2003; 16:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110598)

The future of money.

http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/index.phpAt MK, and all who are interested.

MK wrote in part: (Reference: MK usagold.com msg#: 110586)

"I expect a major monetary conference to be convened at some point in the not too distant future to construct a new international monetary system, and I believe the Mundell/EU system will be used as a foundation."

DryWasher:
How about in a week from next Monday (10-27-2003) and located in your back yard, good old Denver Colorado? See the above link.

While this is not a meeting of governments, it seems to be a meeting of important private interests which have a very big stake in international money matters, and which could have a big influence on the future of money.

To me it is clear that this old world does need a single stable form of money as the conference in Denver clearly recognizes.

One of the papers to be presented at that conference presents a proposed solution that causes cold chills to run up my spine because I see it as my worst nightmare about one world government and the total loss of individual freedom. I posted a link to that paper earlier on 09/05/03 usagold.com msg#: 108216, and I include it again below for all who are interested.

http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/stages-of-globalism.php

In my opinion the solution is really very simple, and it does not require a world government, but only the universal acceptance of the age old recognized fact that nothing else is as good as gold.

MAKE PHYSICAL GOLD THE ONLY LEGAL TENDER WORLDWIDE, AND BAN FRACTIONAL BANKING WORLDWIDE.

You could store your gold in the bank of your choice if you wished to do so, or you could bury your gold in your basement if you decided to do so.

Yes it would be acceptable to transfer ownership of a quantity of gold from one allocated bank account to another by electronic or paper means if you did not wish to carry it around with you, and you could thus pay for your purchase with a debit card at walmart or buy a toaster over the Internet just as you can now.

You would be required to pay the banks a fee for storing your gold, and for making the transfers, from your account to that of another person or business. Your account would not draw interest. Governments only role would be in policing the system to keep everyone honest. If a run on a bank occurred everyone would get their gold because of the ban on fractional banking, and banks would not make loans.

If you were willing to risk a portion of your gold you could buy stocks or bonds with it just as you can today, and if those investments went bad you could loose your shirt just as you can do today as well, but the money system would never be in danger.

As always, contrary viewpoints and comments are welcomed.

DryWasher.

CoBra(too)

(10/19/2003; 16:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110599)

The Coming Currency Crisis ...

... I guess we've had a stealth currency crisis since the days of FDR. A currency crisis picking up steam since the total abolishment of the USA-dollar being redeemable.

Since then we've had floating rates of currencies, or vs. baskets thereof, against the only reserve currency the world has (grudgingly?) accepted.

This concept, never before tried in the evolvement of civilazation is seemingly drawing to an end. It didn't work. The rest of the world has woken up to the fact that a spade is not to be called a shovel. Though shovels as well as spades are produced elsewhere;

A fact, which cannot even be denied by productivity advances - or how would you enhance productivity of manufacturing (in) spades, while not knowing the purpose of a shovel. Agreed, by use of a caterpillar, probably to do the same trick as a silk worm?

OK, hey? OK, we've got Intel and other intelligent producers of brain(-less) steals to enhance everyones productivity. Those micro-chips even tell us what kind of biogenetic crops we've got to sow to harvest in kind - for now. So does India and a few countries in their neighborhood.

I just wonder if the genetic code of Westeners will adapt accordingly. Digesting the menue he has opted for. If yes the US dollar reserve system has miles to go, if not, protect your digestive tract with some substance.

Palatable in exchange for real nourishment of wealth - gold.

A late nite cb2

Boilermaker

(10/19/2003; 16:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110600)

The Future

One of the recent posts got my attention. Chinese average manufacturing wages are 61 cents per hour. US wages are $16 per hour. The incentive for the transfer of jobs for a firm desiring profits is pretty obvious.

To "level" the playing field as the Bush man is pushing in Asia this week the Chinese worker will need a substantial pay hike and his counterpart in the US and elsewhere will need to rearrange his/her finances to cope with a 95% pay cut. What's likely to happen is that China (and other low cost sources) will reach an equilibrium of reward (wages) that is consistent with their contribution to production. In other words, when production and currencies are back in equilibrium, the US will have to tighten its belt. No more funny money. The standard of living in China will rise to meet the declining US standard. Why not? Would this not be fair? Several decades of well-earned dollar supremacy followed by recent years of dollar hegenomy need to be and are now challenged.
Are you ready for the revaluation of labor and product? If not, get ready for a 50 to 95% economic hit. You know the drill. The bridge to the future, if you want to keep it in your own hands, is paved with gold.

Boilermaker

Goldendome

(10/19/2003; 16:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110601)

The Five Golder Keys

Gdome: I am certain that James Sinclair's five requirements to assure a Golden Bull have been presented here in the past but,hopefully, is worth repeting after an extended time lapse. He recently listed them, more indepth (or wordy perhaps), but nevertheless informative.
the last key to slip into place I believe was in June when the Bond market topped out.
-----------------------------------
From James Sinclair:

The Five Golden Keys are the fundamental factors that must exist for a long term bull market in gold to unfold within a historical context. Each of the Five Gold Keys will of course ebb and flow during the long term bull market for gold.

But if anyone of the keys falls off the keychain, then we must question the integrity of the gold bull. This is where we separate opinion from data. Opinion always leads to confusion while data leads to fruitful conclusions. Let's review the five keys"

1/ There must exist a recognized top in the US Dollar. There can be no argument that this important fundamental requirement is in place today. Not only is it in place, but it has reached a place from which any further drop would render the dollar a public disgrace. Yes, we are also at a critical defensive point but that is only a moment of temporary pause between two pains. The possibility of the US dollar being a launching pad for a long term bull market has the same chance as a snow ball surviving in hell or Baghdad. This Golden Key to a long-term bull market in gold is firmly in place.

2/ There must exist a recognized top in the US Treasury 30 year bond market. Like the US dollar, the bond market has made a clear top. After many years of low cost money, a strong fundamental argument can be made for both stagflation or modest inflation and higher interest rates over time. This Golden Key to a long-term bull market in gold is firmly in place.

3/ You must be in a bullish phase within general commodity markets. With hot money having discovered the commodity market, the recent technical triangular breakout of the CRB may well have set up a test of the multi-year highs. We are clearly in a bull phase of the general commodity market. It is possible that a new high could be established thereby declaring an extended bull market in general commodities. Therefore, this prerequisite has been fulfilled. Having said that, it is reasonable to conclude that this Golden Key for a long term bull market is in place.

4/ The triple deficits of US Budget, Current Account and Trade are all firmly in place in the required deficit form. By all account, these deficits will be with us for the decade to come. They will of course ebb and flow in size probably more a result of the artful dogging that government accountants are capable of performing for the sitting administration.

By all accounts, these triple deficits will continue to break records over the next decade. This Golden Key to a long-term bull market in gold is firmly in place.

5/ Trust in paper assets must be declining. We would be in trouble in this Golden Key if the only paper asset that gold looks at was general equities. Although this is clearly not the case, at current levels the nuttiness of the bulls that was evident during the high tech boom a few years ago seems to be making a comeback. But as they say, "better the garbage you know than the garbage you don't." However, the severe trashing of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds fulfills the requirement that there is a decline in the overall trust in paper assets as long term store houses of value.

The appreciation of the general equity sector clearly has lost its momentum appeal and that generally precedes a severe correction after a full year of appreciation. If you assume that the re-election period is the goal of the positive market in general equities, then it has to react here or burn out in the months preceding November of 2004. This Golden Key to a long-term bull market in gold is in place.

Cavan Man

(10/19/2003; 16:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110602)

Hi Lupo

Thanks for the post....I think there are two possible answers to your question with only one right:

1. The Another/FOA dialogues were the very worst kind of pure, unadulterated malarchy.

2. In fits and starts and with cast changes as well as changes in strategy and tactics, all those THOUGHTS are playing themselves out in real (perhaps slow) time. Slow is good IMHO.

cockerel1

(10/19/2003; 17:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110603)

Sir Drywasher!

Thank you for going where I intended to go when suggesting that gold needs to be set free.

If gold were indeed the only acceptable international currency, that would make it free.

In other words, Gold sets the standard, not the U.S. $ or the Euro.

To keep thinking of gold in terms of Fiat is to forever keep it a pawn to the manipulators.

But by making it THE currency to which all others are measured, then it truly would be free.

Or am I totally off base here?

(10/19/2003; 17:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110604)

SO CAL GROC STRIKE INSIGHT

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20031019-9999_1b19economy.html
The above referenced article in this San Diego paper fairly
well sums up the situation that exists across the land.
----------------
" Grocery workers fear joining the working poor
By David Washburn
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

October 19, 2003

Roxie Bauer has raised a daughter � mostly by herself � paid a mortgage for more than 25 years and paid off her car, all on a checker's paycheck from Vons.

Bauer, after 29 years with the supermarket, earns $17.90 an hour, has good health benefits and a pension plan. But life stories like hers are rare these days, and she knows it.

"We are dinosaurs," Bauer said of herself and others in her position. "I don't have a formal education, but I've been able to eke out a decent living."

Fundamental changes in the economy over the last two decades have forced most people in jobs like Bauer's out of the middle class.

Assembly-line work, residential construction labor, work behind the counter of a bank, among many other relatively low-skill jobs, used to provide a comfortable living for millions of Americans. Now, for the most part, they don't.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in Southern California, said Ruth Milkman, director of the University of California's Institute for Labor and Employment.

"In the last 20 years, there has been a polarization of jobs into low wage and high wage jobs," said Milkman. "In Southern California it has been extreme. This is an attack on the remaining middle."

A generation ago the worker was in a far better position. There was little competition from abroad, industry was just beginning to automate and unions were strong. Over time, however, globalization, advancing technology and union busting allowed companies in many industries to slash benefits and keep pay levels down, experts say. "
-------If you want to read the entire article-go to link for the rest of it----

DryWasher

(10/19/2003; 17:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110605)

Sir Cockerel1 Ref (usagold.com msg#: 110603).

Yes Sir, you have it exactly right in my opinion, but please realize that under what I am suggesting all other currencies would no longer exist. When you went into Walmart to buy something it would be priced in Grams or Milligrams of gold and the same thing would be true if you were to buy an item in a store in China or elsewhere in the entire world.

Balance of payments between countries could not exist, just as no balance of payments can exist today between Arizona and New Mexico. One world and one money, GOLD.

For governments to borrow they would have to compete in the bond market against business and other governments which would force them to be responsible.

The transition from paper money to this system would be a very big problem, but in the end the people would be back in charge of their own lives and of their own futures.

Thanks for the comment.

DryWasher

Econoclast

(10/19/2003; 17:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110606)

A point struck me while reading MK's great post

( treading into dangerous waters-sorry)As far as government functionaries, we (as a society) are getting what we ask for. I whole-heartedly agree with MK's statement against career politicians. What ever happened to the concept (the supposed raison d'etre of politicians) of "Public Service"?
What do we expect as we are kicking the supreme public servant in all of history out of government/public life? Instead of being held up as an example, He has become a liability to the office-seeker.

I don't post much anymore, I feel I've said all I have to say. (For Now) I appreciate greatly the daily discourse and intelligent exchange of ideas (with all the fresh and differing opinions)however.

For now, protect yourself and keep accumulating--I still don't find a downside to that strategy.

Great Albino Bat

(10/19/2003; 18:02:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110607)

Robert: I see right through you, Sir.

You call yourself a gold-bug, but you are nothing of the sort. You are not on this post to listen and learn. You are here with an agenda.

I see right through you. You pose as an advocate of gold and even praise Black Blade, to make you insidious message more acceptable to the unwary and unexperienced.

You wrote: "I can only conclude that people talking about "free gold" are not only selfish in their mind but also mean-spirited in their hearts without much concern for the welfare of their fellow citizen."

This is clearly a step to dishearten those who look to gold as a refuge from the prevalent world madness in things economic, social and political. Your attack begins thus, with a moral condemnation of those who are intelligent enough to look out for themselves, as "mean spirited in their hearts without much concern for the welfare of their fellow citizen."

You may fool a great many people at this Forum, Robert, but you are not fooling me!

You are here not to listen and learn, and contribute honest opinion, but to derail, dishearten and divide, and above all, to badmouth gold.

The GAB

cockerel1

(10/19/2003; 19:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110608)

DryWasher (10/19/03; 17:43:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 110605)

Halleluyah! What a concept. Honesty in the financial world.

So, Sir Dry Washer, what would it take to realize this utopia?

Waverider

(10/19/2003; 19:21:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110609)

Sir GAB

AMEN!!! You are right!!

In fact I'll venture further...Robert's attitudes, arrogance and impotent attempts at provocation and divisiveness here remind me of that flake Dandruff - he repeatedly implied to Sector and Goldbugs generally that they are not only selfish but also mean-spirited in their hearts without much concern for the welfare of their fellow citizens. That flake deservedly lost his posting privileges here but I wouldn't be suprised if the Dandruff is back under the assumed alias of Robert. Remember that Sector attempted to engage him but was repeatedly met with insults and disrespect until we consequently lost Sector's participation here.

Waverider

Robert

(10/19/2003; 19:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110610)

Dear Sir Druid: The financial house of cards we are in

is not the work of one generation and definitely not the work of a small welldefined group of people who could be made responsible for the mess we are in. Modern finance was invented in Italy during the Renaissance and ever since then every generation has contributed its part to
the growing body of finance. I have no doubt that every innovation (or invention) in finance was motivated by the attractive idea that we can create (or extract) wealth without work. It is so much more attractive to work in a office in front of a computer screen (let's say checking financial news and trade stocks, bonds and currencies on these news and commanding real wealth by doing so) than to work on a farm and produce quality food (real wealth) for the local market. The perpetuum mobile (a machine which would work forever without continous energy input) is known in physics to be impossible. Finance on the other hand, being a much younger subject, has not reached that maturity yet. In finance we still dream of a financial construction equivalent to a perpetuum mobile. Examples are currencies with constant purchasing power, bonds paying 5% interest forever in "honest" money without endangering the principal to the risk of bankruptcy or inflation etc. Somebody once calculated that if a sum equivalent to a few hundred Dollars would have been invested 500 years ago and the capital compounded in "honest" money at the rate of 5% per year, that capital would have grown to exceed in value all gold ever mined since the beginnig of time. Clearly, the concepts of compounding and honest money can not exist together. Either honest money has to be sacrificed or the notion of earning interest and dividends has to be abandoned. However, the idea of earning interest and dividends is ultimately related to our desire to retire from work and enjoy the fruits of our labour. This is such a popular delusion, that no politician can ever afford to tell the truth to the people (that retirement on a large scale is a financial impossibility and that honest money requires that we all work essentially until we die). Even this forum of people interested in gold and related issues owes its existence to our desire to preserve the purchasing power of our savings well into the future. We do not ask whether this is possible in principle. Instead we insist that "gold has to be free", "no fractional banking", "no loans" etc. These demands are the result of our desparate fear that the wealth and quality of life we enjoy today may not be avaiable in the future.

I am afraid that my answer to your question may not please you. If that is the case I apologize in advance. The truth whatever it is, always prevails in the long run.

Cavan Man

(10/19/2003; 19:35:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110611)

What a bunch of bull$#@%

US debt is being sold off.....(wake up America)US interest rates 'to rise soon'
By Anatole Kaletsky

AMERICAN interest rates are set to rise over the next few months, one of President Bush's most senior officials told The Times this weekend.
However, far from being a dampener on the economy, John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, said that Washington would welcome such a move because it would underline the strength of the country's growth prospects.

Operative

(10/19/2003; 19:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110612)

US Interest Rates "to rise soon"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-5-861031,00.htmlSeems that a topic oft discussed here at the table is beginning to get some main stream press. Sorry, but doubt if anyone who has been reading the pages of this forum will be in any manner surprised.

Hope all of you had a chance to seek some peace and relaxation this fine weekend, and had an opportunity to see some of those golden leaves. The mountains where glorious. Now off to sample another glass of that apple cider.

Remarx

(10/19/2003; 19:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110613)

Ideas are not Threatening

Since when does open discussion of ideas represent an "insidious" threat? One can own and appreciate gold for security and not be a zealot for its acceptance as a panacea for economic woes.

One can see the stability offered by gold, yet also see that economic problems have haunted societies both on and off the gold standard. An careful look at history shows that having currency permanently pegged to gold can be very harmful to real, working people. Some of the most stable appearing periods in turn of the century American history in terms of the value of money represented some of the worst periods for farmers and laborers.

Max Rabbitz

(10/19/2003; 20:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110614)

Robert

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspI think a lot of the people here understand the credit bubble we are in. I'm sorry, I wish things were as you try to paint them. They are not, and I think you know this. I don't want to go to the moon. I just want to keep what I have. What do you think the odds are of this if I invest with your Wall Street/Financial/Banker friends.

Max

P.S. What do you think of Doug Nolands address at the University of Indiana. Do you think you will be defending Capitalism, or do you believe in the Central Planners?

Remarx

(10/19/2003; 20:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110615)

Secrets of the Temple

Sorry. My previous post was meant to be in support of hearing differing ideas such as Robert's, but I forgot to mention that. (Also, please excuse the typos.)

I have been reading "Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country" for the past week or so. Greider makes the case there that the stability of the gold standard during its heyday in the 19th century was offset by the suffering of people without accumulated wealth.

It is possible that the market economy itself has such inherent problems that are not easily solved, with or without gold. Keynesians and monetarists have tried to fix problems encountered under the gold standard by inflating money, and succeeded to a very limited extent --only to find more, different problems waiting downstream.

21mabry

(10/19/2003; 20:25:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110616)

(No Subject)

Excellent interview on Jim Puplava's site this week.I talked with a fiend of mine's brother,he works for a bank helping run one of their equity mutual funds.This guy is very bright went to college on an acedemic scholarship,did his internship in switzerland for a big swiss bank.I asked him if he his fund ever invested or would invest in bullion or mining stocks.Bullion was an absolute no and he doubted they would ever buy mining equities.In fact other than Barrick and Newmont he did not know another company in the sector.He said people are bringing alot of new money in as of late and tech is still the thing these people want.These people may be chasing the ghost of the last bull IMHO.21

Max Rabbitz

(10/19/2003; 20:31:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110617)

Suffering of the People

Hello Remarx,

Almost time for bed. I confess I do like to hear different ideas, if only to test my own thinking.

You quoted :"Greider makes the case there that the stability of the gold standard during its heyday in the 19th century was offset by the suffering of people without accumulated wealth."

Max....Is this not why many here have implored all who listen to follow in the footsteps of Giants and "ACCUMULATE WEALTH". I can not do it for them. Instead they want to put tattos on their body, and pierce it with rings, and buy rapper CDs, eat out every day, and ...........rely on their loving government to provide everything else they might need.

glennh10

(10/19/2003; 20:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110618)

Gold & Free Markets

It has never been a true "free market" economy, even during the gold standard. The practice of fractional reserve banking ensured that the banks were always overdrawn, the ponzi lending scheme resulting in more claims to gold than gold on deposit. In rural areas, people kept reports of the banks so that they could be warned of a bank that was issuing too many claims against too few assets. The system worked fine, as long as the money remained recycling within the bank's loan apparatus. As soon as withdrawals occurred, then the pyramid fell, unless the bank could entice enough deposits.

Under the gold standard, if the banks had played it straight (no fractional reserve), nobody would have been hurt. A business is run on the basis that it sells things for more than it pays. The bank failures should have resulted in an extinction of fractional reserve banking, or at least a great rise in reserve requirements, simply through "natural selection" within the market. Instead, we were blessed with the Fed.

I like the idea presented earlier about things priced in gold grams and fractions of grams. Real simple.

Thanks to all.

21mabry

(10/19/2003; 20:55:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110619)

(No Subject)

Max Rabbits, You are right I think tatoo and body piercing shops are the fastest growing buisness in my town.Two miles from my house there are four of them on one block.The sad thing is the closest most of these people will come to gold and silver is thru a whole in there tongue and or belly button.21

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 21:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110620)

^>^

Why are Snow and other Bush men talking about the rightness of raiseing interest rates?
Besides the obvious of just letting us know in advance.
To move bond money to stocks?
To keep china and japan buying Treasuries?
To support king dollar in spite of the deflationary risks?
After all this talk of low rates for the forseeable future, is it the changeing dynamics of opinions of other central bankers?
Can the US just accept raised rates? And just help the houseing market another way? Like Increasing the length of mortgages? 100 years? THAT should prop up the houseing market for a while. What other tricks could they employ?
Change tax on houseing investment in some ways?

I see that credit ratings of china and turkey improved, and numerous other countries are embarking on thier own credit bubbles.
Some agreement of the US financial arm to buy bonds of various countries perhaps because of political support of US policies?
How can the euro boys compete with the US in the crucial effort of massageing the credit markets of countries around the globe? Under cover of "the market", bonds of countries
the US wants to "help" (for a political price?) enable those countries to have low interest rates. Chile for one.
Perhaps by fostering debt growth and economic growth in other countries, the US is trying to support ...

Oh, this economy is quite manipulated.
50 million shorts greeted Amazon this new year...Amazon is up 200% !!
I think the US has its hands all over the global economy, and is manipulating other credit markets.
From Japan in the 80's bust, to asia tigers in the nineties...Seventies Arab
oil money invested in US banks and loaned to third world countries, tying them by debt into the dollar system and control..lots of global investment flows and thier effects
I think are designed, executed broadly by US stratiegist
chess players.
At present I think they are doleing out credit market help.
For a price. Political prices.
Controlling the investment flows overseas is a powerful tool and I think I am on to something with this.
Somewhat new to me, anyone have thoughts on this?

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 21:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110621)

(:- I)

And I couldnt understand the logic of guys I know that buy huge pick up trucks that they really dont use in any meaningful way to haul stuff... And I didnt understand the attraction for the monsterous 250 and 350 pickups.
Now I know.

"Could auto sales maintain this level for one more quarter? Perhaps, as small business people all over America come to the end of the year and realize that under the current tax code, if they buy an SUV which weighs over 6,000 pounds (Lincoln Navigator, Cadillac Escalade, Lexus, Chevrolet, Ford, etc,) they may be able to deduct the entire cost from their 2003 taxes. In essence, the government just made these monsters more affordable than smaller cars at two-thirds the price.

(Yes, to my shocked readers in Europe, a US tax rule provides that small businesses can deduct the cost of commercial vehicles, which are defined as small trucks which weigh over 6,000 pounds, which in the US includes large SUVs. The Bush tax stimulus package allows small businesses to deduct up to $100,000 of capital business expenditures immediately per year, up from $25,000 if I remember right. The idea was to get businesses to buy more computers and equipment and furniture, etc. Under the current rules, SUVs also fit into this category. Only in America.)"

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 22:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110622)

'/ '

On the medical front,
I read that the path the US is taking, companies handing over costs to employees, will continue till companies are free of health care costs and the Govt controls and pays for the health system in total.
Just down the road, timetable...the march will take us there.

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 22:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110623)

#_#

should have known something was up when a Saudi diplomat recently asked me, "Do you know what kind of woman is most sought after as a wife by Saudi men today?" No, I said, what kind? "A woman with a job."

I thought of that when I read last week's announcement that within a year Saudi Arabia would conduct its first real elections � for municipal councils. Most people thought it would snow in Saudi Arabia before there would be elections. So what's up?

What's up are three big shocks hammering the Arab system. First, with oil revenues flat, there isn't enough money anymore to buy off, or provide jobs to, the exploding Arab populations. Hence the growing need for wives with work. The second is the Iraq war shock. Even with all the problems in Baghdad now, virtually every autocratic Arab regime is starting to prepare for the uncomfortable possibility that by 2005 Iraq will hold a free election, which will shame all those who never have. As Lawrence Summers, Harvard's president, likes to say, "One good example is worth a thousand theories." Iraq � maybe � could be that example.

But there is another tremor shaking the Arab world. This one is being set off by a group of courageous Arab social scientists, who decided, with the help of the United Nations, to begin fighting the war of ideas for the Arab future by detailing just how far the Arab world has fallen behind and by laying out a progressive pathway forward. Their first publication, the Arab Human Development Report 2002, explained how the deficits of freedom, education and women's empowerment in the Arab world have left the region so behind that **the combined G.D.P. of the 22 Arab states was less than that of a single country � Spain

Dollar Bill

(10/19/2003; 22:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110624)

:- /

Below is Thomas Freidman quote.

GratefulForGold

(10/19/2003; 22:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110625)

Robert @ msg.110585

I am glad Druid, GAB, Waverider and others responded to your earlier post because I had, somehow, missed it in my reading today (one of those "reload" flukes).

Much of what you said made sense to me. While not going to the lengths of GAB, I also have gained the impression that i) you are a very bright, articulate man, and ii) you have an "agenda."

While I have appreciated the opposing opinions and debate on this Forum, I concur with GAB that (in my own words) your posts are NOT pro-gold and definitely not conducive to a newcomer wanting to learn the reasons and rationale for buying and owning gold. Much like today's media, your posts contain just enough "truth" to sound plausible.

Simple examples from today:

You spent much time talking about the recent history of a fluctuating dollar and your personal experiences therewith. And you conclude that "Yes the Dollar is going to go down. But do not expect dramatic crashes. Instead be prepared that in 2008 the value of one Euro in term of Dollars will be fluctuating in the range $1.30-$1.60."

I am certainly glad your crystal ball is fully functioning! Your apparent absolute confidence that the financial markets of this world will continue lumbering along, to the benefit of the U.S., is reassuring! Yes, the world's markets would suffer in a dollar crash, too, because of the enormous amount of US fiat they hold. But the term "cut your losses" comes to mind here. Any transition from the US$ hegemony will not be easy but there is as much likelihood of that happening as your scenario of US$ business as usual.

Your next paragraph: "Everybody knows that oil is traded for US Dollars. In fact, you can view the oil reserves of the world as US Dollar reserves. The US Dollar is not backed by gold. It is backed by all the oil of the world. As long as oil is more useful than gold, do expect the Dollar to remain the king among the world currencies. (The story will be different when we run out of oil. Only then will the world return to a gold standard)."

Wow! "Everybody knows that oil is traded for US Dollars." Saddam Hussein must NOT have known ... and perhaps Russia is soon not to know the same? Robert, you have this knack of stating dubious things with such "authority!" "...you can view the oil reserves of the world as US Dollar reserves." Excuse me?! YOU can view it as such if you wish, but I am not brain dead yet and have no wish to assume such a thing. Because it has been so in the past is absolutely no guarantee of the future! I have difficulty convincing myself that the oil producing countries (especially ME) will back the US$, come hell or high water (both of which may arrive sooner than expected).

The "free gold" debate is at times confusing. I don't have the information to question whether the US$ is, ultimately, required for ANY purchase of gold at ANY place in the world. I do find that strange.

But, very simply for me, "free gold" means to free physical gold from the pricing (US$) manipulations of the paper gold market (futures, derivatives, leasing, etc. - most of which is beyond my understanding)). Yes, like you(?) and Black Blade, I have bought gold for insurance. Unlike Druid, I do plan on selling some of my gold for future needs (not just an exchange for "fiat" (ha!), but for some worthy purchase, like a home). Yes, I would like gold to be free, so that it can go up, since being un-free has held it down at ridiculously low prices. Isn't that relatively normal? Yes, gold is eternal wealth and I respect it as such. I hope to be able to hold some of it and pass it on to future generations. If I am not so fortunate, I do believe gold will aid in MY survival and that of my loved ones. What more could I ask? Alas, I fear that you confuse physical gold (and silver) holders with those who "invest" in PM stocks. Those who are more into the stock market and the possibility of great increases in the value of their stocks are the "to da moon" mentality that you're trying to ascribe to the prudent PHYSICAL gold owner. A different breed and different purposes. (I also own a few mining stocks, but the bulk of my investment is in physical. Those stocks are a little "gambling" on my part and I enjoy them.)

But I take GREAT exception with your statement, "I can only conclude that people talking about "free gold" are not only selfish in their mind but also mean-spirited in their hearts without much concern for the welfare of their fellow citizen." WHAT? I have bought my "insurance" in gold for the precisely, UN-SELFISH reason of hoping to aid not only in my own survival, but for my loved ones who don't have an inkling of what's going on! "Free gold" is part and parcel of that scenario, since if government continues doing what it does best (print money and further its own aims) then gold, RIGHTFULLY, should increase in its fiat price to offset the insantiy of the fiat empire.

As I said, Robert, you're an articulate and clever man. I don't have the intellect to adequately respond to your posts (but, thankfully, others do!!). Wolves in sheeps' clothing appear everywhere in life. Although I cannot debate with them in wolf-talk, I do know enough to get the hell away!

My only concern here is that new lurkers may be taken in by your "apparent" logic. You're smooooth.

Lady GFG

Goldendome

(10/19/2003; 23:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110626)

Who says, honest money pays no interest?

ROBEert,RObert-Robert-robert

In your response to Druid Message #110610 --You write:

"the concepts of compounding and honest money can not exist together. Either honest money has to be sacrificed or the notion of earning interest and dividends has to be abandoned."

Not True:
Interest was always charged to borrow under the "honest money system" of past centuries. Granted, borrowing was nothing on the order of today's fractional reserve method.
Nevertheless, a borrower to build new plant and equipment figured in an interest that would be paid along with the principal based upon his increase in production capacity.
Interest rates were set locally between borrower and lender often based upon familiarity, and perceived ability to pay. Interest rates were not set nationally.

The interest rate was often small, but not always. I've seen 19th century loan agreements paying 9%. And often, as the money was honest, you had long term bonds (some railroad bonds were for 100 years) paying 1 or 2 %.

Often, as mass production and goods became more common, deflation in the price of common goods occurred. So, that the 19th century actually saw general deflation, despite great leaps in technology and U.S. living standards.

We are nearly 100 years down the road since any honest money. Financial markets are more like the roulette wheel in a casino. Who can blame one for worrying about retirement, etc. and wanting to diversify, i.e. bet on different numbers or colors on the roulette wheel.

Good evening,-------Gdome

Druid

(10/20/2003; 00:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110627)

Robert (10/19/03; 19:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110610)

"Modern finance was invented in Italy during the Renaissance and ever since then every generation has contributed its part to
the growing body of finance."

Druid: I can't argue with you there. Ten percent.

"The perpetuum mobile (a machine which would work forever without continous energy input) is known in physics to be impossible. Finance on the other hand, being a much younger subject, has not reached that maturity yet. In finance we still dream of a financial construction equivalent to a perpetuum mobile."

Druid: I have difficulty understanding analogies of physics with finance and economics. The fields of finance and economics are black arts sold as "real science" to a whole generation of students who have not been classically trained. I know this because I was one of them. I have since remedied this deficit over the last four years by reading more books in classical economics then I care to name. Economic theory or rather schools of economic thought are the foundation for all "business" disciplines like mathematics is the foundation for all "real science" disciplines. Here's where science and the black arts go there separate ways and should remain so. However, you will always have your geniuses in society whom, for whatever reasons, will try and cross-pollinate these branches by taking concepts from one branch and applying them to other branches. While one can take the principles of calculus and apply them to inorganic matter and observe a repeatable outcome, the same use in predicting HUMAN ACTION is altogether a different matter (no pun intended). Real science (not industry paid for science) deals in exact repeatable experiments with exact repeatable outcomes. The rest is theory. I've known economic professors who could model many things in the economy using elegant econometric models but wouldn't be able to tell you what there 19 year old daughter was up to on a Saturday night. Need I say more?

"Clearly, the concepts of compounding and honest money can not exist together."

Druid: Let me see if I can "clear" things up for you. History has shown that both of these concepts work quite well together. In the case of compounding, you the earner and saver of your wealth (choose one, I'll use gold) become the compounding component in the equation. This might be difficult for you but its called SAVINGS. You organize your affairs and live off a certain percentage of your income and save the rest for your retirement years. In an economic environment where "free gold" is the rule and not the exception wealth gets transferred back to the many from the few. The overall standard of living increases because deflation becomes the norm thereby increasing the purchasing price of your wampums. The rate at which you the "compounder" save increase far and above the price of the goods and services you consume. In a true "free market capitalistic society" competition would continuously keep prices down as firm A tries to make a better widget then firm B and so on.

Others on this forum have been quite eloquent in response to your disparaging comments earlier today. I personally have bought some acreage out where I live and am in the process of building an extremely modest domicile. I bought the additional acreage so that in the event that things get really out of hand, my family members and friends can have a place to build and live on my dime. If we can barter and exchange our labor to help each other, then that's more then payment enough. In my thinking, this is the spirit and philosophy that built this great country and for some of us its not a "trade."

neo 1

(10/20/2003; 03:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110628)

Thank you again, Sir Robert.

I was about to commend Robert and M.K. on their last outstanding posts, but I see that Robert's post has been deleted.
Reminds me of the recent Chinese space launch. To be televised only if it goes well.
Sir Robert is simply posting his OPINION, which just happens to be slightly different than the opinions of some others. Can't stand the heat, lets get outa da kitchen.
In writing "...people talking about free gold are only selfish ...and mean spirited," Robert was certainly walking a fine line on this forum. However,ignoring that line doesnt make it go away.
I believe Robert's question still stands: Why would any compassionate human being want to see the price of gold "go to the moon," knowing the significance of gold in world affairs? Do we hope that the price of electricity or oil quadruples? Then why gold?
As for Robert having an agenda - who doesnt?
We all have a point of view, at least his posts are reasoned,understandable and about Gold.

GforG: I'm confused by your criticism of Robert's claim that "everybody knows that oil is traded for US Dollars."
Wasnt this a central idea of Anothers and FOA's writings? Robert's assertion that "you can view the oil reserves of the world as US Dollar reserves," is in my opinion, an interesting mental twist.

"Free gold" is the price that a buyer and seller agree upon for the delivery of physical. "Price" can be $, Euro, oil or camel hair.

"If a man does not keep pace with his companions,
perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer.
Let him step to the music he hears, however measured
or far away." h.d. thoreau

Dollar Bill

(10/20/2003; 04:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110629)

"/ "

Sir Neo1,
You said about Robert;
"...In writing "...people talking about free gold are only selfish ...and mean spirited," Robert was certainly walking a fine line on this forum."

You mean -crossed- a fine line?

TownCrier

(10/20/2003; 04:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110630)

Rationale for neo l

It is true. Ignoring that line does not make it go away. But in fact, ignoring it could make valuable posters go away. As mentioned already by others, we have seen this sort of thing before at the forum.

Indeed, were these remarks offered off-the-cuff, or at a different time or place, as an abstracted question about compassionate human beings seeking an explosion in gold price, they would certainly be a fair question worthy of deeper inquiry into both character and motivation. But under the circumstances, as they are present here in this time and in this place, it is at best an irresponsible piece of rhetoric, at worst a precise and strategic attack to do the most damage where it might matter most. Of all the theories that have crossed my range of comprehension, "free gold" seems to me as the most threatening to the vested interests of all those responsible for paperizing the gold market.

Further, where it is the "people talking about free gold" who are singled out in this manner, the specific likes of Belgian, Aristotle, and FOA/Trail Guide come to mind as the most obvious of the intended targets. Whether you agree with their collective message or not, the key point remains this: It is beyond question that these posters have committed vast sums of time explaining, ad nauseam, the esoteric nature of the modern gold market as contrasted with a free gold market. And in the process, it would be only a very imperceptive reader following the forum these past five years -- or else a complete newcomer -- who could not in consequence gain a solid sense for the pro-humanity aspects of these posters every bit the equal of their pro-gold position. Hence the allowance that a remark like this could at times be legitimately passed off as merely irresponsible rhetoric offered off-the-cuff by the unknowing or unwitted.

But we know that not to be the case, as Robert is seemingly neither newcomer nor without wit.

If anyone feels I have erred in my judgement by nipping in the bud what seemed on most accounts to be a growing problem, in consolation I would point out that it was done in putting the long-term interests of the forum as a whole ahead of any other short-term interests. Such is the nature of the soup that has been set before us these five years now. Fascinating ingredients are contributed by an excellent assortment of voluntary chefs, but occassionally we have to put a moratorium on the salt shaker, or pluck out a bay leaf or sometimes an old shoe. How'd that get in there?

At any stage along the way, what we have is what we have. Hopefully it is found palatable more times than not.

R.

misetich

(10/20/2003; 05:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110631)

China rejects US plea for renminbi revaluation

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565190973&p=1012571727088Snip:

Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, on Sunday ruled out any quick revaluation of his country's currency, but agreed to establish a working group with the US to examine how to move towards a floating exchange rate.

In a meeting with US President George W. Bush, Mr Hu maintained that a rapid move from China's fixed exchange rate would cause instability in China as well as the international markets.
....................
***************
Misetich

The Feds led by Snow are busy huffing and puffing, speaking with forked tongues- On one side the article further states
"The Bush administration is under intense pressure from US politicians and some manufacturers to persuade China to let the renminbi rise against the dollar" on the other Snow in an "exclusive interview with a British newspaper(?!) boasts and predicts job creations within months, a skyrocketing US economic recovery etc etc which obviously boosts the US $

Thus the question - why the contradiction?

It is painfully obvious that Snow, O'Neil prior to him, and most of the Feds "forecasters" have been wrong in their predicitions of economic recovery for the last 3 years.

The "smoke screen" or lets referred to it as a "Snow job" of forecasting higher rates is to render lip service and avoid a preciptous fall in the US $.

The "managed and orchestrated" US $ devaluation is being carried out to avoid a sudden crash - or to seek 'consolidation" around the current levels

Third quarter corporate earnings for US corporations have been reportedly higher by "Wall Street blowhorns" when comparing them with either knocked down estimates or previous year awful reports

However it is interesting that most of these analysts concede the pace of rebound is NOT SUSTAINABLE since the blip in 3rd quarter and carry over to the 4th quarter is primarily due to tax rebate spending, currency flactuation, and cost cutting

The attempt to refuel, and re-establish a "vicious positive cycle" will fail miserably since the platform or existing foundation is pourous

In months to come and upcoming presidential election year an array of 'good news spin" can be counted upon by the White House and the Feds countered by the harsh reality of unstable global economic and political environment. Somehow the concept that the US is not an "island" will be severily tested as that "they cannot control their destiny or others" since they are battling counterforces from within and without

The current low IR environment is NOT SUSTAINABLE since foreigners will dump US $ investments thus higher rates are around the corner and thats when the real fun starts - STAGFLATION! OR HYPERINFLATION both favoring the young Gold Bull

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

LeSin

(10/20/2003; 06:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110632)

Meta-Physical Finance v Free Gold & Honest Finance

Robert said:

"In finance we still dream of a financial construction equivalent to a perpetuum mobile."

LeSin:

Much is exposed by ones "dreaming". "In Finance" (World), why not make a more specific
reference and admission? Try "Derivative Finance World", "Hedge World", where your delusions
are referred to as your dreams. Where debt repayment is promised and never delivered.
Where scheming fraudsters dare to call and compare finance with physics.

Sir we understand enough about the laws of physics to know that any comparison between finance and
physics, would result in honest bullion banking. One would conclude that what goes up,
comes down and for every action there is a reaction. Consider then, that one should broadly apply those
understandable laws of physics to finance and then one would conclude and accept honest banking
and finance. One would conclude that if one runs up a huge debt, one is expected to pay it down.
On and on then the practical comparison goes, including money flows, velocity and so on. The laws of
physics would keep it honest. Balance would exist, by fair weights and accurate measures. Accountability
at home, not pushed off shore. Intervention (manipulation) would not be required. The market would speak
not market makers.

"Perpetuum mobile" finance is what you and your ilk have dreamed and dumped on the system.
You have invented it and it is in use, derivatives without end, hedge losses without end, unmanageable debts,
off balance sheet companies on remote Islands, masking the real losses, spent retirement funds, spent social
welfare funds, and so on and on does your bad dream of ever increasing finance of debt without payment continue.
But, BUT, the whole world does not see it your way, because you do not understand physics nor fundamental
honest finance.

Your weak attempt (foolish) totally missed the point.

I could have tolerated some space of creative thinking along your ideas, if by chance you had some tiny particle
of the basic substance of honest character in your submission.

You would have compared "Meta-physical" things to your finance construction dream. Then you could have got
by with your comparison of finance and meta-physics. I could have said well he is off with the fairies on that
meta-physical stuff, still unproven and so on.

No sir, not physics. For to compare physics with your dream would bring you quickly to realise that you must
return to basics. That 'Free-Gold" the physical kind, not the meta-physical derivative burning kind (paper), the evaporating
paper kind, is basic and yet the ultimate transportable, stable, constant wealth asset for man, king and country.

Again your arrogance is revealed in your attempts to defend fraud, that is masked with finance and banking
terminology.

Cheers "S"

DummyANI

(10/20/2003; 07:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110633)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Econoclast

(10/20/2003; 07:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110634)

Paper price should go down today because....(tongue in cheek)

www.guardian.co.uk/arts/news/story/0,11711,1066363,00.html"It lay hidden for 2,000 years in Afghanistan, eluded the Taliban and escaped dozens of adventurers and bounty hunters. Now the Bactrian hoard, one of the world's greatest archaeological collections, has been found."

Neat news item on gold (Alexander the Great's Treasure)

Clink!

(10/20/2003; 08:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110635)

@DollarBill - why buy big ?

In response to your question of yesterday, I would refer you to the Bizarro cartoon of 18/18 (very timely !) why has made it to my personal 'Hall of Fame' - the outside of my cube at work.

A couple is looking at this HUMUNGOUS SUV in a dealership. The salesman is saying, 'And the best thing is, when gas hits eight bucks a gallon, you can put it up on blocks and the whole family can live in it'.

C!

Clink!

(10/20/2003; 09:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110636)

@ Goldendome - more synchronicity

You're not the only one to not see much difference between the two parties. I quote from last Friday's Stupid White Men desk calendar :-

'My offer stands: I will personally pay for the legal charges and fees to file papers with the Federal Elections Commission to merge the two parties, forming the Democratic-Republicans Party.'

C!

admin

(10/20/2003; 10:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110637)

Gold Commentary & Review

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

New Stein.

New links.
Philharmonic sales at record levels in Japan.
Michael Novak interview on the the state of "the Republic"

Iraq, the 51st state?
Today is the anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. Beware of markets that go bump in the night.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/20/2003; 11:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110638)

Call for consultation, bullion at one percent over cost, free shipping on 25oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html

steady

(10/20/2003; 11:14:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110639)

ARISTOTLE

once a man told me sometimes when u cant reach your goals its best to turn your back on htem for a while and let yur subconscious mind work out the answers for you .
i am turning my back on your questions to me. i cant figure em out. i need to read more and let the stuff sink in so i can translate what ive learned into written words .
so no im not avoiding the tough questions i just dont have the answers yet!
maybe someday i will and when i do ill post em.
mean while did u get sum? where are u priced in at 256? 280? 300? 330? it really dont matter as teh worlds paper will bury your price deep!

DryWasher

(10/20/2003; 11:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110640)

cockerel1 (usagold.com msg#: 110608) The future of money.

Sir Cockerall wrote:
"Halleluyah! What a concept. Honesty in the financial world.
So, Sir Dry Washer, what would it take to realize this utopia?"

Reference also usagold.com msg#: 110586, 110598, 110603, and 110605.

Well you really put me on the spot with that question as indeed you should Sir cockerall.

First let me say that while I firmly believe that what I outlined has considerable merit, it should not be seen as a utopia or even as a complete proposed solution to the very complex problem of creating a workable worldwide monetary system, but rather more as a core of a proposal based on the time proven sound principal of using gold as the basis of a new worldwide monetary system which would fit into our modern world.

It would be unrealistic to think that a new worldwide monetary system can or should come into being quickly or without a great deal of pain, planning, and debate. I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime, I am 66 years old, but perhaps the younger members of this forum may live to see it.

In the meantime let us all follow Sir Black Blade's advice which we should all know by heart by now.

Perhaps after we see the results, if any, of the Denver FUTURE OF MONEY conference, would be a good time to revisit this issue in more depth.

DryWasher.

(10/20/2003; 11:26:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110641)

A LITTLE MORE INDUSTRIAL USE FOR GOLD

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/20/technology/20atom.html
It will probably take a long time before there would be
significant consumption of gold from this process but
its a start (Nanotechnology). From New York Times 10 20 03

-----------------------

Electronic Memory Research That Dwarfs the Silicon Chip
By JOHN MARKOFF

Published: October 20, 2003

team of university researchers has constructed an electronic memory circuit from disordered arrays of electronic clumps of gold atoms, according to a report to be published today in the Journal of the American Chemical Society.

The advance, made by researchers at Rice University, North Carolina State University and Pennsylvania State University, is based on one of several approaches that are being pursued to create a microelectronic technology on a much smaller scale than today's silicon chips.

In the new field, known as molecular electronics, the researchers have succeeded in creating tiny switches from molecules and atoms. They are now searching for ways to assemble the vast arrays of the switches to serve both as memory and computing devices

-------------------------

Zhisheng

(10/20/2003; 11:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110642)

Good Close on the Comex.

Not exactly up into the close, but not down either, and up $2.10 on the day basis the December contract.

Interesting that the December futures closed less than $1 over the spot. Seems that physical pressure from below is meeting paper pressure from above, and is pushing through.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/20/2003; 13:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110643)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 17:20:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110644)

Hong Kong is back door in gold trade

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200310/20/200310202342183479900090509051.html
Snippit:

Exports of jewelry and precious metals, especially to China, is soaring. According to an announcement by the Korea Customs Service yesterday, exports of jewelry and precious metals climbed by 142 percent to $576 million during the first nine months of this year compared to the same period of last year. Imports increased by 1 percent to $119 million during the same period.

Hong Kong, it appears, is the gateway for a thriving if gray market trade with China. Because of tariffs and fees that amount to about 70 percent on precious metals, direct exports to China are almost nonexistent. But Hong Kong's duty-free status has led to a thriving trade with the former British colony. Exports grew from about $30 million in the first nine months of 2002 to $405 million in the same period of this year. Those exports accounted for 71 percent of Korea's total exports of precious metals.

Black Blade: Just imagine what will happen when gold and silver are truly liberalized and retailers allowed to expand throughout the Mainland. I am certain that the physical market will experience a demand side that will put pressure on already tight available stockpiles of these two metals. The Chinese government is accepting licensing from foreign retailers and when that market opens up � well look out! Precious metals are dear to Asians and considering that the currency is nonconvertible into other currencies (as it would create a tremendous "black market" in currency exchange as in other restricted nations, precious metals would be a true convertible currency that would not only be an alternative currency for 1.3 billion Chinese but also one that will most likely be very profitable should the Yuan peg to loosened or even done away with.

One short story I remember from my father who shortly after WWII was in the US Navy and served in China for a short period before the Communists took power told me of how Chinese would prize U.S. silver coin in exchange for souvenirs bought by US sailors. I believe that once the barriers are lifted and the Mainland has widespread retail outlets for precious metals it could dwarf the Indian market. Once again Gold and Silver will shine in a land where currency is not as well respected as it is in the west. That too may soon change considering the huge debtor status of the United States in a world where the dollar is coming under pressure from a United Europe and a new currency has to my amazement has actually gained acceptance on a continent with several governments with divergent political and cultural diversities. My advice, keep an eye on China. Remember, the rumor mills are rife with gold buying by the Peoples Bank of China (the Chinese Central Bank). The few retail outlets can't seem to keep the shelves stocked either. Once the lid is off � there just may not be enough physical metals to meet a new surge of demand. I just wonder how prevalent gold and silver smuggling is in the country. Hmmm...

Off to the gym!

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 17:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110645)

Silver steals the show ahead of Diwali festival

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/xml/uncomp/articleshow?msid=243879
Snippit:

MUMBAI: Silver and gold moved in opposite direction on the bullion market here today. The white metal was in driver seat following fresh bouts of demand as the festival of lights approaches fast.

However, the other precious metal � gold � failed to consolidate last week's gains in the wake of a fall in its prices in international markets and closed lower. In European market, gold remained under pressure due to lack of market moving factors. But the metal was largely range-bound, well above Friday's seven-week lows, sources said.

Black Blade: Both metals (Gold and Silver) should do well in India this year as a very good monsoon season has benefited rural Indians after several years of drought. Diwali comes next week and Marriage season for the next few months. On price dips we see a surge in demand from the $368 an ounce level. With China due to open up the precious metals markets across the country and a surge of buying in Japan we can see a shift in precious metals wealth moving from west to east. Even in the west there is evidence of increased interest for the safe haven "portfolio insurance" as the equities markets appear to have topped out or be very close even as dubious corporate profits have failed to excite the stock markets in the west on lower volume while insider selling remains high. Meanwhile investors and jewelers are getting used to the higher prices as US proclamations of the "strong dollar policy" are increasingly viewed as mere lip service. A weaker dollar is in America's interest and with that Gold and Silver will do well as "reflation" (or in fact true inflation) soars as the Fed cannot restrain itself from creating a massive flood of dollars to counter the soaring budget and current account deficits with little sign of any end in sight. Already, we have "negative real rates" and that has given US dollar priced gold a push into the $370 to $390 range. It will not be long before we look back and say "damn � what a bargain that was". I may have more on this in coming days (check the DMR for updates).

industrialGold

(10/20/2003; 17:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110646)

TO : ax (10/20/03; 11:26:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110641)

I design MEMS device packages. I always specify Gold as contacts etc. The applications are focused on the cell phone market and so over time, more and more Gold will be consumed by the products I design. It's not going to amount to "tons" of Gold, but many other designers are also using Gold almost exclusively and so I think the Gold will be consumed at an increasing rate in the industrial arena.

-industrialGold

steady

(10/20/2003; 18:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110647)

ECOism

the people of japan are practicsing ecoism with there sell a yen buy a gold (philhermonic). Trading good money for bad, as they see value in real honest money rather than script.

but this comes back to me being able to define what moeny is, in order to solidfy ecoisms position on money (honest, real, hard, metalic , bi metalic, basket of commodities or whatever the heck we want to call money for i dont know)so to proceed any further without establishing this plank is to be done with leisure while that plank gets hammered out.

Aristotle see thats part of the western minds problem (mine actually)it wants to get to the end before the begining is even started, it has become accultured to think this way via the media and its inuendos and imagery barage try lookng at at television once in a while an notice how trhe screen changes every 2 second 3 or an eternity 6 seconds, this type of exposure to minds causes incoherent thinking patterns where individuals are not abvel to follow a thought for more than 15 or 20 min at a time. (belive me i know i see it every single day) so i to have tried and have jumped to the the middle of ecoism like ive been trained to do (thanks western media bias) without developing a sound solid logical foolproff not built in the air or on sand base, but one that can define what money is honestly, a rock solid position.

but i think the idea can and will proced, ECOISM THAT IS, as it really is about integrity of the system , and we see that the currency without a real anchor is not acting intergritally rather it is showing signs of wobbliyness. others look to tangilbel assets to store there digiatl moneis in. Many individuals are waking up to the fact that something interesting is occuring in the financial market place. uncertainty arises as they seek the truth but the truth has been obsificated in some central banks books which we are not allowed to see. More than that it revolves around that dreaded word concept (money) which everyone is acutly aware of but cant yet decide for themselvs what money is.

you know aristotle maybe that what ecoism really is is each individual finding out what money is and using that money. is it gold? how do you find out?

ecoism growing with each mind converted solidifying its presence with each gram purchased.
have u got some yet?
where will you be able to say you got priced in at?
Gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

Waverider

(10/20/2003; 18:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110648)

Steady

Thank you for your honesty. If you don't mind me interjecting, would you consider reposting Aristotle's question, and maybe invite others here to provide some ideas? I can't remember what the question was...but I know if I'm feeling stumped about something I generally appreciate other's input, ideas, or perspective. Sometimes that process helps us articulate our own thoughts more clearly...just a suggestion...but then again...knowing Aristotle - he may just have all of us stumped!! ;o) Cheers,

Waverider

Waverider

(10/20/2003; 18:28:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110649)

Steady

Just to let you know that I posted before I saw your post.

Cometose

(10/20/2003; 18:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110650)

gold / industrial usage

There was a period in my life where I got extremely involved ( extremely for me / not dangerously extreme like Thomas Edison ) in the study of Electromagnetic Fields and I was exposed to some very intersting info out there.....some of it was very out there...I retain a book on this concept ......of making massive amounts of energy returns from perpetual motion machines (non patentable of course) ....THe substance that produced this incredible output from a direct charge on one end was COPPER WIRE.....He just coiled it into a huge mass to recieve charge ....and multiply that charge.......I believe gold is the densest metal we know of and my limited knowledge tells me that it is the most conductive we know of.....Since it is so cheap someone should do some research on perhaps making power lines out of it.....LOL .... or skirts for powerlines to retain the charge that is now being lost in Electrical Transmission.....HMMMMMMMM .......wonder what else GOLD IS GOOD FOR?????? I bet that the diligent and the committed find out and when they do ........( the hsnds off society will be drinking immodium and Maalox at the same time with the GUYS in the CABAL) GOLD may go some places no one imagined......MAYBE THE CHINESE ALREADY KNOW a higher and better use for GOLD than Currency Rserve backing......
It probably has somethng to do with a really inexpensive production of energy that they are developing for their people that the MONOPOLISTS knew about but had under wraps....
DId you know that lots of the stuff we have today was in SCIENCE FICTION of the 60's??

COULD BE A NEW DAY COMING>>>>>I think CHINA is looking pretty good right now ....gotta go to grow ...with someone who knows the language....

melda laure

(10/20/2003; 18:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110651)

Neo 1: Roberts question: How is free gold compassionate?

because the reconciliation will only become more painfulI believe Robert's question still stands: Why would any compassionate human being want to see the price of gold "go to the moon," knowing the significance of gold in world affairs? Do we hope that the price of electricity or oil quadruples? Then why gold?

But that is just the point, all commodities will rise. The key issue is that it is not the price that rises, but the value and marketability of CREDIT (created from nothing) which must ultimately go to zero even as its quantity goes to the moon. Since this stands at the foundation of the modern economy this must and will result in a painful upheaval, howbeit long or slow. And coupled with this easy money is massive mis-allocation of scarce natural resources, for neither oil nor water nor gold can be created from thin air- waste these on peril of your posterity!

But as Lewis used to say, before the pain can be healed the thorn must be plucked out; for there to be peace the criminals must be first arrested (as in stopped). The compassionate choice is not between an unstable finance regime and total anarchy. Rather the choice is between a more just system (based on planning for the 7th generation in the future) and one that causes massive mis-allocation of natural resources yesterday, today and tommorrow until the day we starve from lack of a sensible long term energy policy. Nor is this the only thing out of balance. Our choices of the use of water (golf courses vs corn fields) arable land (condos vs strawberries) mineable ores (high grading vs maximum extraction) or even sustainable businesses (krispy creme shops vs Auto repair)- all these choices will eventually turn out to have been horrendously bad long term business decisions. Until the credit driving this madness stops we will only dig ourselves deeper into it. Communism mis-allocates by central planning; flood-stage credit flows mis-allocate by asset bubbles and financial engineered "berms".

Indeed to "pull out the thorn" at this stage of the game is so frightening a road that neither party wishes to initiate it. Yet for all that it matters not, gold is already on that road, the bad debts have already been issued, the roads to nowhere built and the useless planes parked in the mojave desert. More credit will not give them value. It will make deserts of unwanted condos, unwanted used cars, unwanted cell phones and cell towers, and unwelcome government employees.

How is free gold compassionate? It isn't. It will be a stern task master- even without a gold standard. But it is a necessary consequence of a stable credit system. And it may (that is we hope it may as Gandalf used to say) mark to market the follies of bankers, presidents and kings. I belive your other choice is a ruined world. Compassion is misunderstood by some. It will be mercy if we can fix this system; for grace you will not, i think, find "save the king return or the world end", as they used to say.

melda laure

(10/20/2003; 18:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110652)

I belive your other choice is a ruined world

it's pretty messed up already.Shall we make it worse?

My apologies if this totally missed the sense of your question. This is just my limited understanding of the morality of the situation; I too could care less if it were gold or potatoes (well, we could make it corn- at least a more comely vegetable). Yet history deems that it will be gold.

melda laure

(10/20/2003; 19:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110653)

The debt has already been paid...

...By the creditors.Their wallets are stuffed with other peoples debts.

That may be unfair. It is unfair, and it is wrong. But there's not going to be much to buy come the day, more's the pity and future pain. Did not Black blade say to stock up the pantry like a good SENSIBLE hobbit?

What's in your wallet? Mine's quite heavy- not full, but hardly empty.

Dollar Bill

(10/20/2003; 19:23:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110654)

">"

Morgan Stanley on china.
And comments towards the end about capital flows.
The US can manipulate that for whatever ends suits the US.
Short or long term.

"..In the real economy, signs of credit distress are popping up. There are frequent complaints that the �financing chain� is broken. A large number of companies in China depend on increasing investment to cover cash shortages associated with bad investments in the past, and their survival totally depends on accelerating credit expansion. I expect a large number of companies could be under severe pressure going forward.

Why should the government tighten? China does not suffer from inflation. Labor surplus and a high savings rate imply that China's potential growth rate is substantially above 10%. Thus, the current growth rate may not be excessive. However, China's financial system has trouble allocating capital effectively. The misallocation tends to escalate when economic growth is rapid. For example, bad debts could be growing faster than GDP in the current environment, which would cancel the benefit of high growth for the country and may lead to a financial crisis. Thus, the rationale for tightening is to keep bad debts from growing faster than GDP.

Lastly, the market also believes that the government is unable to stem strong capital inflows that in turn boost lending. As has been seen in East Asia before, investment booms in the region are usually �bubbles� -- when local credit expansion causes an investment bubble, it tends to attract foreign capital. When it cools, foreign capital tends to leave."

Waterboy

(10/20/2003; 19:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110655)

Natural Gas

http://www.postcarbon.org/pubs.php?doc=US.NG.When_markets_fail.v1-3.JD.2003-08-13.php#_ftn5Reading about and by Robert has become a little tiresome, so here is something more refreshing and pleasant.

snip

"In the aptly chosen Mayflower Hotel grand ballroom, the atmosphere was coldly surreal. Outside, late June Washington was climbing towards a hundred degrees, the hottest day of a damp and dismal year so far. Inside, the air conditioning held the gathered guests a comfortable thirty degrees cooler. A perfect and profligate example of the absurd charade about to unfold. This particular piece of theater, was produced in a hurry by US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, hosted by the National Petroleum Council, and scripted by global corporations, like Dow Chemical and billed as a Natural Gas (crisis) Summit.

The outcome was both farcical and grim: Americans should be worried, because their corporate masters with their political pawns, still have not grasped that this is not a temporary hiccup, with a happy end, but a gruesome farce written by greed, but now being firmly dictated by geology, not by �invincible� markets.

The idea, according to Abraham's opening speech, was that the scores of invited industry guests would furnish the short-term solutions to get America out of what could be its worst energy crisis since the 1970s. The public were allowed to attend, but not given any opportunity to speak. Most notably, as the Union of Concerned Scientists pointed out, no-one from the renewable energy industry was represented amongst the panelists or the invitees. [1] No surprise there, but still the date of June 26th, 2003 should be one for the history books, as it marks a turning point in the history of petroleum. The US, having peaked in oil production more than three decades ago, has realised that the same is now true for natural gas. US oil peak has clearly been disastrous for the planet and all its life-forms as the US finds itself needing ever more of the planet's oil production. This article will lay out some context for future judgments on whether gas will follow suit, and lead to even more militarization of US energy policy and more misery for the people that have the misfortune to live in gas- and oil-rich countries.

Since natural gas is a complicated and strange business, it is worth sketching some of the back-story of the energy crisis sequel America now finds itself in (the first �show� was the oil crisis in the 70s). This will also help us understand why the industry solutions presented will only work with a great deal of luck, and why at best they will only stave off the inevitable finale for a while. Though a while may be just long enough for Bush to arrange a second term (assuming the mainstream media remains compliant in asking no really awkward questions regarding 9/11, the real reasons for war(s), and the real state of the American economy and its monetary system)."

GratefulForGold

(10/20/2003; 20:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110656)

melda laure @110651

Your words were beautiful and haunting. Thank you!

The "thorn" that must be pulled (IMO, more than "neither" party wishing to be the surgeon -- "NO" (global) party wants the task!) So, will the surgeon emerge from the shadows and do what must be done? Or will the thorn continue to fester, the decay spreading, fatally infecting the entire organism? Or will the thorn somehow "miraculously" work its way through the bodily tissues to emerge at another point?

In an otherwise healthy "body," I would vote for the thorn working its way out elsewhere, with no serious ill-effects to the organism. However, the generally compromised immune system of this organism renders it susceptible to many and varied infections, enough so that any one of many possible outbreaks means an Emergency Room visit and ongoing treatment (intensive care with the mortitian hovering).

Years/decades of frivolous and decadent living (ask any alcoholic) demands its price. When it's time ... it's time. Only an absolute and total change in the way of living offers hope for continued existence (and even at that, there are no guarantees). As an aside, I have looked in puzzlement at the "success" of krispy kreme donuts (and Starbucks coffee). To me, they have epitomized the degree to which the Western culture has gone astray. Over 20 years ago, I remember walking in a mall in Los Angeles ... and commenting (upon seeing all of the "stuff" in the store windows) "We have TOO MUCH variety!" One of my guages of "excess" is the variety of shoes and clothes offered for sale. Being a woman, I do appreciate choices and variety -- but there is/should be a limit to the credit/funding of such meaningless excesses. That is a simple example, but we suffer from much greater and more complex excesses.

It is not my wish for the US dollar, the US stock market, or the US economy to come "crashing." However, this credit addict (the US) MUST come to terms with its addiction. What will it take? Addicts exist for a very long time in denial. Inevitably, "life" presents an opportunity to "change or die." I don't think the US has "loving family members" to intervene. Some tough task masters, however, may be preparing for such a confrontation. For the good of the whole, they must intervene if the addict refuses treatment.

Sorry if I mixed metaphors (or whatever that is). Just thoughts that came to mind. I seriously hope the US has the ability to get honest with itself. If not, then the world will attempt to ensure that it doesn't harm anybody but itself in its throes.

As for gold (and commodities, especially energy) -- they are part of the "bitter" medicine the US (and unfortunately, others) must take in order to have the opportunity to heal. Finally, the US will have to pay for this medicine (no more "free clinic handouts"). No more abuse of this medicine will be allowed.

(I hope this made some sense, somewhere!).

Lady GFG

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 22:11:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110657)

Solid Investing From A Position of Strength

Before being a successful investor you must first be successful by working from a solid position and a position of strength. First you pay off debt, accumulate the staples of life and built a "safe haven" or "portfolio insurance" first. Then you can think about what the bubbleheads call investing/speculation. But always start from a position of strength and in investing that is with tangible wealth and build upon a solid foundation. I choose gold, silver, and a small position in platinum. Then in the second level of the plan I invest in what are industries and companies I know that can survive through thick and thin and even then anything can still go wrong. Remember Bre-X, Enron, Worldcon, Adelphia, Lucent, and many others.

Still having a store of nonperishable food, basic necessities, emergency cash and precious metals first is imperative before striking out into the world of equities and bonds. Even the Oracle of Omaha, the second wealthiest man alive behind Bill Gates only invested in what he knew and kept to a simple plan of valuation, strong growth, able management, and what he called "franchise" investments. In effect he invested in what people tend to buy and use in good times and bad or where competitors are far and few in between. He bout about 130 million ounces of silver and who knows if he has any other tangible assets as he does not reveal all of Berkshire Hathaway's assets known. He looks for deep value investments. Recently he said that he has seen no investment in the stock market that even mildly interest's him. He also called derivatives "weapons of mass financial destruction".

Anyway, always work from a position of strength before making forays into dangerous territory. A solid position free of debt, a supply of the necessities of life, and a firm foundation of tangible hard assets of value are the first necessary steps. One thing I have learned is that with the appropriate skills one can succeed in life. For example to disarm an armed opponent is relatively easy but it requires a little bit of knowledge, and a couple of swift movements and just a little leverage. Yet how many people are victimized by a single armed criminal every day? In investing most people have little knowledge about the company or the company's prospects and yet put their hard earned cash into these "investments". Many times they are victimized daily by the carnival barkers in their starring roles on television stock infomercials and Wall Street "experts" paraded before the cameras tout the latest fad investment or sector. As I said, work from a position of strength with a firm foundation of life's necessities, hard assets like precious metals, and then study and learn before "investing" in the equities and bond markets � be very picky and always alert. Criminals don't always carry firearms either and some wear a suit and tie along with a convincing smile.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 22:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110658)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava and King

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

So, who's buying and why?

If insiders are selling, who is buying? The answer to that question is easy�everyone from institutional investors to the general public. Institutional investors are more fully invested than at any time in the past three years. The public is coming back into the market with margin debt now at its highest level in a year. Day trading is also making a comeback.

Black Blade: Market mania revisited? Looks like it to me. In fact it looks like a mirror image of the speculative bubble that burst in March 2000. Beware, this is just one of many bear market rallies in a secular bear market.

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 22:44:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110659)

"Sizzling" US economy may be a flash in the pan: experts

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=20&u=/afp/20031019/bs_afp/us_economy_outlook_031019011722
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy is red-hot, economists say, with confirmation of the trend expected in official growth figures later this month. But is it for real? Experts are ramping up their forecasts for third-quarter US gross domestic product, the first estimate of which comes from the government October 30. Forecasters who have been calling for growth of four to five percent are now bumping up that to six or even seven percent, based on indicators such as consumer spending, industrial production and other data.

But a note of caution comes from Merrill Lynch North American economist David Rosenberg, who argues that the economy is benefiting from temporary factors. Rosenberg said that the latest reports on retail sales "bakes into the cake a six-percent figure for GDP." But he said consumers have been spending money from tax cuts and mortgage refinancing and buying new automobiles with cut-rate financing. Income from other sources has been growing only sluggishly, he said. "How, then you ask, has the consumer been able to stay alive? Because in addition to what the mortgage market gave in terms of debt service relief and cash-out refinancings, Uncle Sam's generosity -- blowing a hole through his income statement by massively cutting taxes and borrowing the funds from Japan Inc." Rosenberg worries that if the job market fails to rebound, it will dent consumer confidence and spending. Although recent data show a slight drop in new jobless claims and a small gain in September payrolls, economists debate whether this is a trend. Rosenberg argues that the job market may be stabilizing but is not yet growing quickly enough to be self-sustaining. "We have graduated from a 'job-loss' to pretty well a 'job-less' recovery," he said. "Bottom line: This economy is still short three million jobs benchmarked against where the employment level should be at this stage of the cycle."

Black Blade: How much deeper in debt will the US consumer go when he sees his relatives and neighbors being laid off from their jobs so companies can make their numbers? With current account and budget deficits exceeding GDP this does not look very promising.

slingshot

(10/20/2003; 22:47:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110660)

Midas Crusade

News had spread of Therroth's introduction to the Table Round. This display of power became the talk of the castle and the townspeople. Its purpose was to inflict fear into the leaders of the Goldbugs. But it failed to do so. These Knights and Ladies knew the supernatural and its power,although evil,could only affect material things and not the living. With all this acts splendor, it could not directly hurt anyone. Only if one gave into fear or the material the force reacted with, come in contact with a person. Yes, it could change the course of rivers and break down castle gates, but arrow and sword was much more to be feared.
Gandalf, lamented over the loss of his crystal ball. He had had it in his possesion since his apprenticeship. He looked at the charred holder and the glass shards that lay upon the Table Round. Years of instruction from the one who now opposed them. Memories past, flooded the Good Wizards mind.
The laughter died down and all could see Gandalf standing in silence.
Are your fine, Gandalf? asked Sir M.K.
Gandalf nodded and said, I am fine.Just that I feel like I've lost an old friend.
Soon afterwards the Council adjourned. They had completed their war plans.

In the early morning sounds of truppets awakened all and the long line of wagons,man and beasts come to life.
In no time all was ready and waiting.
At the head of the column on horseback was Sir M.K with Sir Black Blade at his side. He drew his sword and raised it in the air. TO HAMMERTON! he shouted.
In response from the long line came an Echo several times,

To HAMMERTON!

Sir M.K. inserted his sword back into the sheath. Turned hs horse to the East and with a slight nudge from his boot the horse moved forward.

The longest journey begins with the first step.

This journey would be filled with peril and try a mans soul. Such is the road to Hammerton.

Slingshot--------------------------<>

Black Blade

(10/20/2003; 22:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110661)

Falling Money Supply?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDC538C00%2DFB42%2D4E2D%2DBB81%2D40BB99CD5282%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

One possibility is that the Fed has been forced to change its previously inflationary behavior because of concerns about the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. Russell points approvingly to an article that appeared last week in southwest Florida's Herald Tribune, based on an interview with a money manager who recently spent time with legendary investor Sir John Templeton. According to the article, Templeton told this money manager that he has never been more bearish on the U.S. stock market and economy, because the U.S. dollar could lose as much as 40 percent of its value in the next several months. This devaluation would cause foreign investors to sell their massive holdings of U.S. government debt and U.S. equities. To be sure, there is nothing new about such concerns about the dollar and the threat of foreign sales of U.S. stocks and bonds. They have been hanging over the market for many months now, even while the stock market has continued to go up.

Black Blade: Interesting indeed. Especially with the huge Treasury auctions in the last couple of months. Perhaps another reason Snow and Bush are talking up the "Strong Dollar Policy" in the face of millions of lost jobs and angered CEOs of manufacturing companies. Looks like a catch-22 and yet in the end the Fed must reflate.

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 00:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110662)

How is Free Gold Compassionate?

I have read many posts the past few days and after digesting some major points of veiw, thought I could comment with some meaning as to the distructive/constructive
power of GOLD.
In this day and age of runaway money and the human characteristics to lie and deceive, compounded by greed and materialism. I find it no wonder at the state we are in.
The ability of the printing press and electronic accounting has exceded our human comprehendsion of debt and its respondsibilities. The easy lure of "Pay for it later",
"No interest down", "Easy payments" The constant bombardment of commercials of some couple on an exotic island or driving a luxury vehicle is very compelling. Advertisements are so appealing. Peer pressure traps younger couples in a sea of debt that may have adverse effect for the rest of their lives. Who do you blame?

Bankers,Parents,Advertisers, Politicians? Doesn't matter. The damage is done. We must find the cure.

So Is Free Gold Compassionate? Hmmm? I would say yes.

More to my point of veiw, it is Tough Love.

I wish to break this cycle and be amoung those at this forum to inform there is a way out if you listen.

The level of deciet is inmmense and fully engrained in this generation. Most have not experienced hardship or had those tell them of what they had gone through. So the lessions learned this time will be a hardship they have not been exposed to. I have a great tolerance for those who my be ignorant as to what may befall them. Would I like to see
some hardship amoung my fellow man? Yes. So they can see that our leaders who expound to spend, spend 'spend are WRONG! They are ruining OUR CHILDRENS LIVES! for the sake of keeping their political party in power.Somebody is going to pay and it sure as hell is not going to those in power.

There are two ways to rectify this problen of financial unbalance. World War or the institution of a gold standard.

The world war reduces man to rumble. While the the gold Standard will cause severe pain ,it would undue the finnacing of such an act. Short of atomic attack.

So in this throw away society, we have to instill responsibility. Wether we purchase Gold or a new car or house. We are responsible for our actions, either it be financial or interaction with our fellow man.

It is my assertion that sites like USAGOLD will lead the way
in recovery.
Slingshot-------------------<>

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 01:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110663)

Position of strenght

Msg # 110657 The best way to disarm an armed opponent is to not place yourself in a confrontation with a person who is armed.

Be aware of your surroundings. (do your research).

Smile, Sir Black Blade.
Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 01:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110664)

Welcome New Posters

IndustrialGold and Waterboy. Welcome to the forum.

You may have posted before. First time I have seen you.;0)
Slingshot----------------<>

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 01:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110665)

Sir Black Blade

Msg# 11659Your comment,
How much deeper in debt will the US consumer go when he sees his relatives and neighbors being laid off from their jobs....

He will go deeper in debt till he is laid off from his job.

I am a good employee.
I am valuable to the company.
I have been here for years.

Pink slip.

You have been terminated for your job has been exported to India.
Slingshot---------------------<>

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 02:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110666)

DryWasher

Msg#110640World Wide Monetary System.

Your are 66 years old and you will live to see it.

How do I know this? Because the industrial community is moving to ISO 9000. Headquartered in Geneva. All industrial nations will have the same standards of workmanship. So if you don't conform, you will be ostrisized. Receive no work. I think now there is ISO 9001. The USA has little or no industrial base so the tranformation to a World Wide Monetary System may be closer than you think.

ISO 9000 is at my worksite.

Slingshot-------------------<>

Black Blade

(10/21/2003; 02:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110667)

Gold Could Be Poised For Another Run Before Christmas

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Oct-2003/goldrun211003.htm
Snippit:

John Templeton is 92, so he has seen it all before. In 1999 when he was 88 he warned that the tech bubble would burst, and how right he was. He has been joined by Lehman Brothers a leading Wall Street bank, which is warning that a financial crisis is going to grip the US within the next 12 months. According to the Daily Telegraph in London the bank's chief international economist, Russell Jones, tested the US against something called the Damocles report which the bank uses to forecast trouble in Third World countries. In simple terms it is based on ten economic indicators weighted on the basis of past crises in Latin America and Asia. The result was that the alarm bells rang long and exceeding loud.

The point being made by Lehman Brothers is that when these same economic indicators are applied to the US economy there seems no doubt that it is heading for a currency crisis. The budget deficit is a huge and though the authorities keep repeating that a strong dollar policy is being maintained , a growing number of influential commentators doubt that this is the case. The dollar has already fallen some way and is affecting exports. The key problem is China which sells US$6 worth of goods to the US for every US$1 worth sold to China. As a result the trade imbalance is running at around US$103 billion a year, and this simply cannot be sustained by any country, no matter how powerful.

Black Blade: Sounds reasonable.The current account and budget deficits are clearly unsustainable. The US dollar must devalue.

Dollar Bill

(10/21/2003; 02:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110668)

(8-)

Morgan Stanley.
"I have long maintained that a low-inflation US economy is but one recession away from deflation. If the cyclical lift now under way fades or reverses, another deflation scare is a distinct possibility. The current bout of inflation phobia has left financial markets utterly oblivious to such a possibility.

I still strongly believe the USD will not crash. The rest of the world is still too weak to accept a large USD correction. 3) Another 30% correction in the USD implies a EUR/USD of 1.50 and a USD/JPY of 80. Do we think this is realistic in the next year? 4) As long as China's RMB peg is maintained, calling for a 30% USD correction is tantamount to calling for a 30% RMB correction. Since the US is still the largest marginal consumer, while China is the largest marginal producer, how could the rest of the world absorb the deflationary effect of such a re-pricing? The only scenarios under which I could envisage a USD crash would be if (1) China de-pegged fully and rapidly from the USD, or (2) the US adopted a strong broad-based protectionist stance, or (3) world leaders intentionally talked the USD into a crash. None of these three events is likely, in my view.

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 02:55:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110669)

Black Blade

Msg# 110667If you apply those 10 econmic indicators use in Latin America to The USA it spells financial crisis.

Nafta and Gatt? Do they have anything to do with this? :0)

We will make the world equal. Is that the New World Order?

Lower the standard of living of the industrial nations and higher the standards of the third world countries at the expence of the industrial nations. Complete globalization.

I smell a rat!
Slingshot--------------------<>

slingshot

(10/21/2003; 03:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110670)

Dollar Bill Msg # 110668

Would the impact of the american consumer who would be unable to buy chinese products effectivly cause the dollar to crash because of economic problems(jobs layoffs)?
Slingshot--------------<>

Topaz

(10/21/2003; 04:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110671)

Dollar Bill re: Dollar

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10MS/Roach keeping an eye on deflation shows us someone still sees the dying Forest and not only the new shoots from too few Trees! In all probability this entire bout of "inflation" as witnessed by PoG 255-375 is a contrived situation to ward off the inevitable deflation and will in fact, when all levers that can be pulled are, lead to HyperDEflation.... finding Cash$ rocketing "to da Moon" and its derived T's flying well beyond Junk status.

Charts show a comatose Cash$ as the others duck and weave looking for direction. Why did the IMF/WB call for a weaker Dollar? The System can't handle a too strong Cash$...however it would seem, the Markets are insisting on it.

Just my HO of course.

Gondolin

(10/21/2003; 04:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110672)

Lady Grateful for Gold, 110585

As a general lurker and occasional poster when a topic of conversation raises itself which I would like to see pursued further by the Forum I appreciate your post regarding the discussion on posts by our friend Robert. I'm reading up the page so may be well behind the conversation by now.

I read all posts with interest, I browse other sites and watch the daily media circus. I listen to all views from people both learned and ignorant. It's surprising how many people have the same view and can reach the same conclusion regardless of where their viewpoint is originally coming from. Less surprising is the number of people who would rather hear, see nor speak 'evil'. On this site (and I must add the fantastic source at Le Metropole) I learn more in the intelligent debate and the dedication from all within to research, formulate and respond to any post they agree or disagree with, or on most occasions which simply leads them on to a further theme of discussion.

I do not consider myself a selfish person for desiring gold to revalue itself where it should be. In the grand picture of things my desire one way or the other is of no significance in what shall happen. I trust that I will be in a position to help friends and family in future (few if any have taken the message on board or if they have been in a financial position to act upon it), whether that be just in general life or in the event of a melt-down.

I am positioned in both PM stocks (65%) and physical (30%) plus a share of now decimated tech shares (5%), the latter a grand mistake from my past when I like all others jumped on the stock market bull with no idea what I was jumping into. (That share of my investment that I threw at stocks at original investment value was closer to 30% of my total current portfolio before the value fell out). But I digress.

I will at times in my life through choice or necessity sell gold to get the things in life I want. I will also retain physical gold as a store of wealth, be that for insurance or just for the sheer joy of rolling a coin between my fingers. I am lucky enough to have positioned myself in Gold while the price of gold is affordable. I should be investing more, but I am not. I still have to enjoy life on a daily basis and I will.

I sincerely hope I make a bundle off my PM stocks so I can do the things I want to in life. At the same time I will also reinvest much of my return into physical as I believe in Gold as a means of wealth preservation. I am sure there are many posters and lurkers who share a similar viewpoint.

My point is there should be no necessity for any who have seen the merits of gold to live wholly in one camp or another. We choose where we position ourselves politically and on the issue of physical or PM stocks v paper contracts and FIAT.

I don't know what the worls will deal up in the future but believe my position has prepared me for whichever scenario will unfold.

To all, (including Robert), the debate is welcome, and the fact that different viewpoints are given in the forum is indeed valuable lest we pull the wool over our own eyes. I welcome when GAB and friends call a spade a spade, it helps me to re-look at posts and see in between the lines what the message is.

This is the most obviously lacking element of our schools and Universities, and is what makes the internet and sites such as this so undeniably valuable.

Thanks to all for reading and trust the sentiment of my post is understood.

Spartacus

(10/21/2003; 04:41:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110673)

Snow's Interest Rate Comment Was `Inept,' Pimco's McCulley Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a95saxcKvh1I&refer=home
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's comment that interest rates will rise, causing bonds to fall, as growth accelerates was ``unwarranted, unneeded and unhelpful,'' said Paul McCulley of Pacific Investment Management Co.
---
``You can have a Fed funds policy or a currency policy, but you can't have both,'' McCulley said. Repeated comments from Snow and President George W. Bush that the U.S. has a ``strong dollar'' policy while calling for market-determined exchange rates are ``inconsistent,'' he said.

``Snow is being too clever by half by continuing to keep saying `strong dollar policy','' he said. ``If you're pegging the Fed funds rate and letting the market determine the value of your currency, it's hard to simultaneously argue that you want a strong currency.''

LeSin

(10/21/2003; 04:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110674)

A Friends Message Almost Two Years Have Past, Since

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.html
Some Vintage FOA - Almost Two Years Now

FOA (10/23/01; 10:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#123)
The real world

"We are seeing the results today as this fraud of a paper game as it comes to an end. It's not nice to watch. Busting, not only the dollar factions that played this sector for their best interest, but also denying any profits to the whole gold industry that chose to ignore the long term best interest of gold's market value. The same industry that decided to cater to the singular greed of a small group
by sacrificing high gold prices so leverage plays would work. In the process they played a political game to limit gold prices from getting too high and will now suffer on the altar of a "gold price without a range". "

"They can call the outcome anything they want: "bullion at a premium to comex" or " comex at a discount to bullion". Either way the whole system is destine to split and leave the paper players holding an incredible bag as bullion runs away with the help of fundamental gold factions in Europe."

FOA (10/26/01; 21:21:33MT - usagold.com msg#127)
A few comments on comments

"OK, now we stand face to face. Even if we had enough free cash to pay for delivery,,,,,, what jurisdiction would let us settle; England, US, South Africa, Canada,,,, who? No, we would be told to cash out and buy our gold on the tiny physical markets. In a Hunt like joke,,,,,close out would
come and we would eat it, big time. Even if we broke even, how exactly would we exchange our cash for metal in the tiny bullion markets without driving the price to the moon?

The reason I play this out, in text, is for others to understand that there ain't gona be a run up in paper gold. That market is a derivative style currency support and it was never set up to be a big time deliver machine. Its control will end when the currency system, it's built on, fails and takes the "virtual" gold market price with it,,,, to the floor! But, long before that plays out, the real bullion markets will get extremely thin and build up a huge premium to contract settlement. It will do this because some financial disorder will invalidate, and most likely, force an official deferral in physical delivery; indefinitely. From there the show will proceed.

The big dollar gold shorts in Euroland have real market exposure but no political exposure. Their political house would just as soon settle this at whatever level the paper prices sink to; this is their real market exposure and it will most likely be profitable. There will be no political exposure, forcing them to settle in physical delivery; because the US system will opt out first because of
infaltionary preasures! Very simple political logic, right? Try asking someone that is hip deep in gold stocks or futures if they grasp it? Hard thing, that political perception is,,,,, especially when your pocket book controls your brains. (smile) "

"Again; this all mostly covers the bulk of the markets. Paper gold owners that have oil to trade will get their ticket clicked,,,,,, believe it. However, I bet that by then most of them will be asking to settle their gold in Euros."

Caradoc

(10/21/2003; 05:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110675)

Gondalin's "It's surprising how many people...."

http://www.delphiassociates.org/sdm/sdm.htmlGondalin's comment about "how many people... can reach the same conclusion regardless of where their viewpoint is originally coming from" made me think of a gold comment made by modern-day oracle Sean David Morton in his newsletter of a year ago last March. Although Morton focuses on things other than financial (including a lot of weird stuff like conspiracy theories), he occasionally makes flippantly worded predictions of market tops and bottoms which turn out to be accurate. With that said, here's Morton on gold as of March, 2002:

The price of gold is central to maintaining a risky speculative scheme that has netted billions for banks like Chase and J.P. Morgan, where banks borrow gold at low interest, sell it on the open market and use the money to purchase high-yield stocks and derivatives. If the price of gold were to rise even slightly, the banks would be forced to pay back more for the gold they originally borrowed and would most likely go belly up.

The Fed also does this to fool the world by making the dollar look much stronger than it is. The US government does it for 3 reasons:
1. To prevent rising gold prices from sounding a warning on US inflation.
2. To prevent rising gold prices from signaling weakness in the international value of the dollar and,
3. To prevent banks and other financial institutions which have funded themselves by borrowing gold at low interest rates and are thus short of physical gold, from suffering huge losses as a consequence of rising gold prices.

It is all totally illegal, and a complete criminal conspiracy, but, hey, what can you do? It is the way the world is run today. The Big Boys are also keeping it cheap as a safety net, in case something really goes ka-blooey, they can cash out quick while the price is still low.

---end quote---

Probably not a lot of Morton's readers qualify as true goldbugs, but his readership serves as an example that there are -- as Gondolin says -- a lot of people who are already aware of what's been going on. Implication for those here is that if/wnen the GATA trial or some other medium makes the manipulation common knowledge so that public outrage brings it to an end, there are a host of people out there who will be ready to buy.

Caradoc

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/21/2003; 05:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110676)

The Tangible Fruit of Your Labor: exchange today's value for timeless value!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
Call us to work for you! USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field.

JUGHEAD

(10/21/2003; 06:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110677)

Gondolin....many walk with you....

....points well taken...and my investments seem to parallel yours....a point of growing concern for me, however,...is that of government controls of some sort...while I do not follow Black Blade's advice on survivalist leanings, I do feel that the potential for runaway problems, leading to the call for government intervention...increasingly may become a realistic scenario....and while I fight my tendencies to give doomsday and conspiratorial theories more credit than they merit....I find myself reading more and more along those lines.....and giving them more credibility.....Jughead

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/21/2003; 08:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110678)

W O O P S !!!!

http://www.albawaba.com/news/index.php3?sid=261513⟨=e&dir=newsNEMO

(10/21/2003; 09:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110679)

On US, Hapsburgs and Fiat

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1348.

Operative

(10/21/2003; 10:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110680)

A Year Ago Today

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/21200210/default.htmlGold in the 310.00 area, fun to take a peak at the castle archives.

Zhisheng

(10/21/2003; 10:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110681)

Spot and Paper.

This morning there seems only to be a 70 to 80 difference between spot and the December futures contract.

It seems that the physical is leading the paper up kicking and screaming.

Which may be the only way it can be, prior to "commercial failure".

Zhisheng

(10/21/2003; 10:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110682)

Spot and Paper Correction

That is 70 to 80 cents.

Zhisheng

(10/21/2003; 10:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110683)

$6 rule.

Interesting day.

Up to now there seems to have been no objective limit as how much gold could fall in a day, but $6 was about the limit for a rise. The market is testing that today.

Zhisheng

(10/21/2003; 11:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110684)

Up into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Or close enough. And up $7.50 on the day.

Gandalf the White

(10/21/2003; 11:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110685)

Having just returned from scouting Hammerton for Sir Slingshot, I SEE ---

Zhisheng (10/21/03; 11:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 110684)
Up into the Close!
---
GREAT to hear your message AGAIN, Sir Zhisheng !!
BTW, the Little Green "X"'s of the ROCKET will appear TODAY on the P&F chart of GOLD !
AND, especially for Sir Robert, I say that it shall now start the trip "TO THE MOON, Alice" !!! <;-)
A GOLDEN DAY today !
<;-)

VanRip

(10/21/2003; 12:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110686)

Nice Plug for Silver, Can Gold Be Far Behind

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031021/lf_nm/life_antimicrobial_dc_2The medicinal properties of silver have been touted here and there for some time, but I don't remember it getting mainstream notice as in the article below. Good time for gold to get some notice.

(snip)

Steel, Appliance Makers Tout Germ-Fighting Metal

Germ-fearing homeowners take heart.

Steel and appliance makers are joining battle against bacteria with antimicrobial doorknobs and coffee makers and there is even a gleaming bug-free house on a hillside near Los Angeles to show what the future may hold in store.

The 11,000-square-foot home in Simi Valley is filled with stainless steel and appliances coated with an antimicrobial compound called AgIon, made by New York-based AK Steel Corp. .

The compound contains ions of silver that interact with humidity in the air to continually suppress the growth of bacteria, mold, mildew, fungi and other microbes.

AK Steel early this month unveiled what it said was the world's first antimicrobial home, a house that in addition to its steel framing, roof and other components incorporates about 35,000 pounds (15,900 kg) of the antimicrobial metal.

(more at the URL)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/21/2003; 12:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110687)

Page Update!

Gandalf the White

(10/21/2003; 12:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110688)

The Hobbit's will now start again to TRACK the Dec COMEX contract !

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GC10/21/03 Dec 03 COMEX Contract
Open = $377.0 HIGH = $382.5 low = $373.4 Last = $381.4
Time of SETTLEMENT 13:37
SETTLEMENT Price = #382.0 CHANGE = +$7.6
Yesterday's Settlement Price = $374.4 and OPEN INTEREST = 163,735
MORE LATER!
(while I look for a new Crystal Ball !)
<;-)

Black Blade

(10/21/2003; 12:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110689)

JUGHEAD

I don't know if "survivalist" would exactly be the term I would use to describe myself (maybe it's just the conotation of the term). I don't expect some type of "Armageddon" or having to fend off hoards of desperate invaders. I simply look at my position as being sensible and prudent considering the current state of the economy and the geopolitical events that influence our economy. For example, think of those who have been laid off and hoping to find work before their meager unemployment benefits run out and the BLS considers them reemployed. They may simply find that the extra cash on hand and nonperishable food and basic necessities will give them some breathing room until they either find work or return to school to train for another career. Remember that some Fed governors have said many jobs are gone for good and will never return. I think that they are right. A little protection can go a long way as those families tighten their belts and prepare to live in a different economy while taking on different careers or returning to college to train for new lives with new careers. They may find that along the way they will have to sell their investments and cash out retirement funds as they go and may have to live off of stored goods all the while taking some lower wage temporary work just to make it through. High tech and manufacturing are moving offshore to lower wage workers with equivalent levels of education in places like India, China, and SE Asia. It's a different world and always evolving.

- Black Blade

JUGHEAD

(10/21/2003; 13:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110690)

Black Blade.....

>>>> yup, maybe "survivalist" is too strong a word.....my thoughts are that disruptions may come to a point where transport of goods and "normal" transactions become strained, to say the least....and under those conditions...(which I am not willing to say will occur...yet).....stored goods would certainly be desireable....hadn't really thought about it from the point of view you propose.....also, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on the idea of controls by the government...currency controls... PM confiscation...ability to move funds out of the country.......BTW, thanks for your frequent input to this board....Jughead

Calidor

(10/21/2003; 13:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110691)

Machinists win job competition, but may face pay cuts

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1003/101503p1.htmSnippet:
"A group of machinists at the Treasury Department's Bureau of Engraving and Printing will keep their jobs after defeating a contractor in a public-private job competition, but some may face pay cuts, an agency official said Tuesday.

The machinists maintain presses that print money and postage stamps at the agency's Washington plant. To be competitive, the workers slashed their ranks, trimming a staff of 33 machinists down to 19.2 full-time equivalent positions. The machinists also agreed to modify their pay rates, according to James Fostek, manager of the program review division within the agency's office of administrative services."

Calidore - I find it ironic that the printing press maintainers can't do it cheap enough all the while smokin' and chuggin' along 24/7. I'm not sure how two-tenths of a full time job is figured either. Maybe it's the BLS's "new math". Currency, jobs, and jobs making currency are facing "competitive devaluation". Add a few more to Black Blade's growing "bone pile".

And speaking of Black Blade .... I don't consider it a 'survivalist' approach but a matter of taking prudent measures. That was especially borne out in the aftermath of the hurricane here in Northern Virginia. And it certainly wouldn't have hurt during the BIG blackout in the North East either.

Black Blade

(10/21/2003; 14:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110692)

JUGHEAD

It's more about preparation for events beyond your control and taking control of your own situation as best you can. Not only unemployment, but also family illness, natural disasters, etc.

You may not remember some of the other events of the not too distant past, but during the "Cuban Missle Crisis" supermarkets were stripped bare by frightened consumers. Heck, even toilet paper was in shortage when Johnny Carson made a joke about it on the tonight show several years ago causing a "run" (no pun intended) on the product. A fuel shortage like in Pheonix a couple of months ago could restrict deliveries to markets. Ya just never know what will happen and it's always best to be prepared as best you can for unforeseen events. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Operative

(10/21/2003; 15:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110693)

You Can Call Me

You may call me both a goldbug and a survivalist, I will wear both titles proudly. I chose to be a goldbug because to me it represents a store of value, a protection of wealth, and alone, stands for truth in a finacial world of economic "experts" who daily spin events and facts in order to keep the fog of the matrix surrounding my eyes. Gold will still be present long after the monopoly monies have vacated the scene. Simple and true is a goldbug and in this day and age provides a chance to be counted amongst the "wise men". Someone once remarked that " If you dont stand for something, you will fall for anything." I beleive in gold, I don't believe in Wall St hype, fiat, or the Federal Reserve. One may attempt to deride me by using the term goldbug, in response I will call those who, up to the last minute, hailed the worthiness of Worldcom and Enron as stinkbugs. Fair enough?

Somewhere the term survivalist took on a negative meaning. I will blame Hollywood because how they portrayed idiots in some of thier movies. Those are not survivalist, those are idiots. To me, a survivalist is one who is not content to depend upon others during difficult times. A survivalist does take a certain level of personal responsability to heart when considering how one may eat, secure thier homes and loved ones, or handle nature's wrath. For example, I do not depend on the local grocery store for all my needs, in deed, I have my own store stocked and readily available. I even plant a small garden so the farmers can feed those non-survivalists who cannot feed themselves. Am I therefore a hoarder, or freeing up supply for those without gardens? I support my local police, they are overworked and underpaid. They are also some of my best friends. However, should someone enter my home in the dark of the night I will not be found cowering by bedside waiting for enternity that follows a 911 call. ( waiting for a 10 minute response time while someone is seeking you, to harm you, is an enternity)
I believe in the Second Amendment, because chances are in a worst case situation, no one else will be able at that moment to be of any help. So compared to a non-survivalist who choses to depend on others to help, I am a survivalist who is willing to accept some responsability for my personal way of life. Some days it is a real pain, I would rather be relaxing on the beach, or playing a round of golf, but I do find it leads to some peace of mind by following another outdated motto: "Be Prepared". Does anyone else remember those days, when it was a virtue to know a few lifesaving skills? Or told it was your duty to help others, be polite, and tell the truth.

CoBra(too)

(10/21/2003; 16:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110694)

DMR and a Memory

@ BB - Once again, I would like to say how much I admire your DMR's. I sure know how much work goes into doing his voluntary work and aiding a multitude of readers in coming to sane and correct conclusions.

Your grasp of political, economic and monetary correlations are exceptional. I guess geo's have their ear more to ground than all of the above mentioned sciences.

Thanks again for your great and ongoing education.

BTW - your mention of Kerry Tattersall of the Austrian Mint reminded me of a long past story. While Kerry and I toiled for the same bank a client of mine brought a lovely medieval gold coin, weighing approx. 10oz's with the Prince Archbishop of Salzburg for inspection, who happened be a "forbear" of said client. He actually pulled the piece from his pocket, wrapped in soft tissue paper. Kerry almost had a heart attack and said, that as far as he knows only two specimen have survived and now you come (out of the closet, so to speak) and show me a third piece! Do you want to auction it off? It'll probably fetch between 15 and 20 Million dollars (...and you carry it around in your pocket!).

"Oh, no, it's just that I've come across it recently and thought I'd have you guys authenticate it".

... And at the archbishops time, they also had the right to mint the regions money, in gold and silver, to be sure.

Thanks again BB - for bringing back a fond memory too - cb2

Black Blade

(10/21/2003; 16:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110695)

CB2

No problem. It's amazing what you can come across in the news and through a stack of reports (some sitting for several days before I get a chance to read them). Much of the time we only get a one-sided view from the "mainstream" media, which most of the time are slick stock "infomercials" designed to sell a product.

Today I view bubblevision touting Amazon.com as having made a profit ("pro forma") of course. I am still awaiting a true bottomline core profit from this company, but you won't hear of that or similar stories on CNBC, Bloomberg, or CNNfn. I would be more impressed if they actually paid a dividend as dividends have to come from "real" profits.

Anyway, quite an interesting "rare coin" story. Thanks again.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym and then to get "beat up" in my martial arts class (fun but painful hand to hand close quarter combat).

misetich

(10/21/2003; 17:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110696)

Treasury Says Snow Was Not Pushing Fed

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55905-2003Oct20.htmlSnip:

Bush administration officials clarified yesterday that Treasury Secretary John W. Snow was not trying to force the Federal Reserve's hand when he predicted in a recent interview that interest rates will rise in the coming months.
....................
In comments published yesterday in the Times of London, Snow said interest rate increases are inevitable ............................."I'd be frustrated and concerned if there were not some upward movement" in rates, he said.
.......................
Snow did tell the Times of London that it is a "sort of mythology without any factual backing" that the Fed does not raise interest rates in a presidential election year.
******************
Misetich

Foot of the mouth disease is alive and well in Washington - Former Treasurer's O'Neil, Summers made a habit of it - Snow is following suit.

The incompetence is uttlerly ridiculous. A high prestigious position is being laughed by the markets. Notice the non-event following Snow's remarks.

The Feds have lost market confidence. Bond market vigilantes are ready to strike as the " benevolent dictator' Sir Greenspan tacitly turns on the printing presses full blast with the aid and assistance of Japan Inc.

Snow MUST be aware the REAL inflationary pressures - led by Oil and energy prices, and soon to be followed by imported price inflation as the US $ weakens further.

The "Snow job" and ConJob of mind conditioning the market and the public at large in accepting a higher amount of "price inflation" to avoid " deflation" is almost a stroke of genious if it were not for the consequences to follow.

The continuous mind games of "no inflation" perpetrated (thus the gold suppression schemes of the last 20 years) is coming to an ugly end as the forces of reality take over.

Millions of jobs have disappeared and the general public "followed" the alleged liars and fraudlent Feds in literally "gambling" their retirement funds in the stock market.

Debt, debt and more debt has been accumulated at all levels- government, corporations and consumers.

Can 'they' afford higher interest rates? The Federal deficit is out of control - the 2004 deficit is projected between $400 to 600 billions without counting off-budget items - The current debt to the penny is
10/20/2003 $6,834,248,759,903.16
add ANOTHER 600 billions (2004) and Interest and we're looking at 7 trillions within a year.

Can "they" afford higher interest rates?

Housing and auto industry have been leading the charge as consumers have refinanced (housing) and purchased autos due to IR and other incentives

How will these two pillars of the economy react to higher IR?

Somehow the notion that jobs will be magically created out of thin air ( without recognizing the non-competetive nature of the US vs China and Asia) - and without recognizing the "glut" of overcapacity still existing in telecomminications and IT infrastrure.

Can "they" afford higher IR in an presidential election year?

Doubt it. Thus it can be expected that more "fuel" will be poured over the ignited PHYSICAL GOLD BULL as the Feds sit on the sideline hoping for a miracoulous economic recovery to heal all ills created by the financial mismanagement

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(10/21/2003; 17:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110697)

Correction to projected Debt to the Penny for 2004 should read 8 TRILLIONS

misetich (10/21/03; 17:03:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 110696)

Posted as

Can 'they' afford higher interest rates? The Federal deficit is out of control - the 2004 deficit is projected between $400 to 600 billions without counting off-budget items - The current debt to the penny is
10/20/2003 $6,834,248,759,903.16
add ANOTHER 600 billions (2004) and Interest and we're looking at 7 trillions within a year.

shoud read

Can 'they' afford higher interest rates? The Federal deficit is out of control - the 2004 deficit is projected between $400 to 600 billions without counting off-budget items - The current debt to the penny is
10/20/2003 $6,834,248,759,903.16
add ANOTHER 600 billions (2004) and Interest and we're looking at 8 (EIGHT) trillions within a year.

Joanne

(10/21/2003; 18:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110698)

John Embry on Market Call

If anybody is interested in seeing the video of today's program with John Embry go to robtv.com,into Past Highlights and scroll down to 12:30 pm.

Dollar Bill

(10/21/2003; 18:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110699)

' .. '

Sir Misetich,
I wonder if Snow blundered or could it have been related to Bush's visit with China leaders.
Or could it be to push refinanceing along? Get people
to move before rates go up even if rates are planned not to
be raised.
You wont get Bereneke or Teer or Greenspan giving an early heads up to raised rates.
Surely Snow is more up on things than we are.... and WE know rates cant really be raised like you mentioned.
But, Maybe I give Snow too much credit? Remember the guy he replaced? THAT guy had a study done on how much the US actually owes.
HE appeared to not know what we knew here. He should have known that the game is keep it quiet because the scam is on.

Goldendome

(10/21/2003; 18:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110700)

Misetich

I wish you were on the radio right now reading your diatribes like Walter Winchell, as a War correspondent would, in the heat of battle. Pounding the facts--Pounding the facts--The senselessness of it all, into the heads of all the population across this great country...GREAT WORK!!

----Gdome

a nation of one

(10/21/2003; 18:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110701)

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm
!

Dollar Bill

(10/21/2003; 18:36:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110702)

'..'

Sir Slingshot,You said;
"Would the impact of the american consumer who would be unable to buy chinese products effectivly cause the dollar to crash because of economic problems(jobs layoffs)?"

Good Question, Since I forgot to put quotes on the 2nd paragraph of the Morgan Stanley qoute, it might seem that was my writing. You are over my head with that, but I will take a stab at it.
I do work for people with ridiculous amounts of money.
There are a lot of them.
I think the grinding down of the regular guy will happen relentlessly, but will take years. Since Bereneke and Co seem to be willing to do anything to keep the show running, I think we are in for a slow decline rather than a crash any time soon. Of course your question may be exactly what happens, I just think we have some years left.

Gandalf the White

(10/21/2003; 20:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110703)

THERE it is !!! The GREEN ROCKET !! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GHOLD on to your YELLOW !
HERE we go as I am letting SPOT and SPIKE loose.
JUMP SPOT, JUMP!!
<;-)

Black Blade

(10/21/2003; 22:24:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110704)

Misetich � Snowjob

For the last week I have been trying to figure this one out. Apparently so have the markets and then the White House had to come out and state that what Treasury Secretary John Snow had said in The London Times interview was not their stated policy. Of course the Federal Reserve is a private and independent organization of international bankers with some minor government representation (a minority position no less). So one such as I had a difficult time wondering how Snow could project what the Fed would do and the reason for his comments about raising Federal Reserve rates. I have watched the bond markets and hoped to see what kind of reaction his comments would produce. No one of course had the same script and there was some obvious confusion. The Clinton-Rubin "strong dollar policy" is dead and buried as far as being an official policy of manipulating the US dollar and is actually contrary to what the Bush administration wants in spite of the stupid lip service (at least I hope so unless the goal is another Great Depression).

A weaker US dollar is obviously needed and necessary as joblessness is rampant and growing (in spite of phony massaged BLS data), and that the US is not only the largest debtor nation on planet earth but is no longer the world's largest industrial power, and is quickly losing its grip on the service sector as well as "new economy" jobs flee to Asia and India. Add to this soaring budget deficits and current account deficits that are out of sight and beyond any rational beings comprehension. A weaker US dollar is a must for any hope of "economic recovery" but how to let the dollar weaken without making an outright public statement that the admin would love to see a "weak dollar policy" as would what is left of the US-based manufacturing sector. We are getting whipped economically by foreign nations who are actively (and even passively) manipulating their currencies weaker, some by open market intervention, to have a competitive edge over the US. Should the Bush admin actively talk down the dollar the rush for the exits alone could crash the dollar even though that's more and more likely given the size of the "twin deficits".

As a side note, I think that when former Treasury Secretary Paul O�Neil was fired he pulled that total US debt report out of his back pocket showing a true total US debt figure of about $44 trillion as a way of telling the prez where to stick it by means of making the Treasury Department report public. Personally I thought it was time that some truth leaked out of Washington DC on the true nature of the debt (official and "off the books"). Yet the world barely batted an eye. Definitely exchange some dollar currency for precious metal currency for long term savings as it's going to get ugly. The only question is how soon and how fast will the dollar crumble. Only one large foreign holder of US debt has to pull the trigger and it's "game over".

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(10/22/2003; 00:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110706)

GOODBYE Andrey !!!!!!

To bad you could not stay !
<;-(

DummyANI

(10/22/2003; 02:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110707)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0

D-ANI: Mitsui short-covered his 9,311 short-positions, today.
This indicates that another very bull-trend of gold will be started, and I expect this bull-trend will be continued until up to the 430 dollar per ounce.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Cavan Man

(10/22/2003; 05:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110708)

Hi Black Blade

On a weaker dollar and economic recovery....It's not quite that simple friend. Entire industries have left the US never to return; at least not in this generation. A significantly weaker dollar will merely put our foot upon the path to achieving some degree of recovery.

Boilermaker

(10/22/2003; 06:14:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110709)

Durability is important

Associated Press

FAIRFIELD, Ala. - Jefferson County deputies say they have found the rotting remains of $1.7 million stolen from an armored Wells Fargo car nearly eight years ago.

A year after the December1995 heist, authorities recovered $200,000 of the money from homes in Midfield and Brighton.

Deputies say they were tipped late Sunday night and found what they believed to be the rest of the stolen money in a marsh off Valley Road near U.S. Steel in Fairfield.

No new arrests were made but the case is under a new investigation.

The loot was in two canvas duffel bags and several plastic trash bags about 30 to 40 feet off the roadside, buried about 6 inches deep, said Jefferson County Sheriff's Department spokesman Randy Christian.

The money has deteriorated so much it's worthless, Christian said. A few money wrappers were identified. Little else resembled cash.

"The money was buried in a swampy, muddy area. It was nothing that could be used," Christian said.

comment;
Hide it in a swamp at the bottom of the ocean, come back 10 years or a thousand years later, no worries, your gold will be as good as new. Just remember where it is.

Boilermaker

Clink!

(10/22/2003; 07:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110710)

@ Boilermaker

That is the neatest illustration of the (non-)durability of paper money that I have seen in a long time !
C!

Cometose

(10/22/2003; 08:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110711)

Soybean chart

In light of other's predictions of 550 gold and 7.90 silver, both approximating 50% rises in price from recent levels , it interesting to look at the SOYBEAN chart in its form and present content as it correlates to our present stage on the Sliver and GOLD charts......

Gandalf ; thank you for keeping us posted on your point and figure charting ......it's very inspirational and timely for us to be able to look along with you ....

Yesterday , across the hall some gentlemen were having a countdown party ......very fun indeed..to watch and see.

in anticipation of a time in the future which is going to show and tell in multifaceted ways....

Waverider

(10/22/2003; 10:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110712)

Interest rate rise on the cards

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3203633.stm"The Bank of England may be close to raising interest rates for the first time in three years, after nearly half of its rate-setting committee pressed for higher rates at its most recent meeting. Four out of the nine members of the central bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates this month by a quarter of a percentage point from their 48-year low of 3.5%."

Waverider: This would explain why the US$ has nose-dived this morning - off over 1%. European equities are a mass of red ink today.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/22/2003; 10:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110713)

Call us for bullion at 1% over our cost, free shipping on 25 oz.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Gandalf the White

(10/22/2003; 11:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110714)

WOWSERS Lady Waverider !! The US$ fell off the CLIFF again !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iA new low of 91.19 !!!
What is it that the Snow man talking about -- a STRONG Dollar ?
NAW !!
Just more "SNOW" !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/22/2003; 11:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110715)

KEEP JUMPING, SPOT !!!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1LOOKING good !
There goes the $387 level.
<;-)

Zhisheng

(10/22/2003; 11:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110716)

Up into the Close!

Good Cheer Sir Gandalf and Lady Waverider!

Sir G: good to see the Hobbits have their eyes on the Comex again. The shorts seem to be in retreat.

Lady W: the article on the Band of England to which you supplied the link indicated they are concerned in Britain that their consumers will get into too much debt. Now I wonder why there isn't the same worry over here in the US???

Thinking too deeply tends to give one the "willies" these days.

Paper Avalanche

(10/22/2003; 11:36:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110717)

Contest Idea

What if we have a contest to guess when the COMEX raises the margin requirements on gold contracts (at what POG contract price)? No prizes to be awarded.

I say that they raise the margin requirements at $395 to postpone the inevitable breakout over $400.

I may be wrong. History would tend to show that this guess may not be too far off.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

steady

(10/22/2003; 11:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110718)

comics changing the rules while physical holders laugh!

425 after they have allowed in many more margin players to fleece.
first the set up,gold goes over 410 come join the fray...... then the change , .....opps uh um hey new margin rules yall hahahahahahha .....then the profits as they knew what was coming and there fore cause the run down of the paper price of gold, much to the loving of the buyers of the real deal!
go physical force comics to change the rules and expose what a charade they really have become as we know in face of compititon (how many new paper exchanges have sprouted up?) comics cant even return to normal hours, yep they still are (unfortunatly) part time paper pushig gold slackers!

Zhisheng

(10/22/2003; 11:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110719)

Comex Margin Requirements

Raising margin requirements has most effect when there is speculative eccess: when the paper value of a commodity bypasses the intrinsic value.

I don't believe this is the case in gold now. Near as I can tell, the recent run-up is fueled by physical buying.

Another (seemingly gratuitous) increase in Comex gold margin would certainly have short term effect, but it would also attract considerable attention to the present strength of gold (and weakness of the dollar), and I am not sure the PTB want this.

Of course desperate people take recourse to desperate measures, and reason does not always prevail, so as Paper Avalanche prudently advises: take care.

Gandalf the White

(10/22/2003; 12:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110720)

Look at the Open Interest going UP !

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX Contract
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 163,735
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 171,570
===
PS: There should be TWO MORE little GREEN "X"'s today on the P&F chart ! We shall see later.
<;-)

CoBra(too)

(10/22/2003; 12:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110721)

It's Official!

The UN Headquarters in Bagdad have been warned of a potential attack - and, hey they didn't evacuate!

So, the blame is on Kofi Annan not to evacuate the UN personnel worldwide, if any scent of danger is in the air.

How about evacuating the UN from NY? After all, the big bad apple sports one of the highest crime rates worldwide.

Some powers seem to be hell bent to evacuate the relative peace established after WWII and still feel they have historical authorization and responsibility to dismiss any other authority for all peoples of the world ... and go it alone.

As I do feel the the UN Security Council's recent unaninmous vote on Iraq was again and probably the last chance to re-establish some higher order of discipline, which may have or have not brought the US Neocon's to their senses. It was probably the last wake-up call. Still, it seems there is scant response - and vice versa - very little in material aid to the US' "WAT Efforts".

Meanwhile in the EU, President Silvio Berlusconi - guess we've needed this guy - sees a softening of the Maastricht Criteria to 4% government debt vs 3% - allowable in view of tough economic circumstances. This guy is probably in for a surprise, as economic times will get even worse, instead of improving, as these idiots still are anticipating. And to prove this fact Pedro Solbes, the EU commissioner in charge of retaliating any culprits has just let France off the hook, again, as Portugal is already paying up its negligence. Great, the EU is handling this problem as every member is equal, providing they have the clout to dismiss the Commission's verdict ...

So what's new?

Well, Gold and Silver closed at their daily highs - the SM's worldwide at their lows and the dollar tanked to new closing lows. A scenario we just might get used to in the future. cb2

PS: Not that I'm particular happy about the above scenario, I do feel it's where we're going and I also feel the "West" has had it coming. The arrogance we, "The West" displayed for too long is coming "before a fall".

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/22/2003; 12:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110722)

Page Update!

TownCrier

(10/22/2003; 16:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110723)

HEADLINE: Gold chic again, nears September peak on COMEX

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031022/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - COMEX gold thundered to its highest price in more than three weeks on Wednesday, as investors jumped back on the bandwagon, gunning for new bull market highs after a period of profit-taking and consolidation.

The December contract settled $4.80 higher at $386.80 an ounce. ... Many have wagered on prices topping $400 this year.

The Dow Jones industrial stock average was down 155 points by mid-afternoon, encouraging rotation back into safe havens.

Analysts said the rally was all the more impressive because gold prices have been moving up in other currencies as well.

------(see url for full article)----

Day by day gold reigns quietly over the financial world -- from the lowliest mud hut to the loftiest central banking operations -- and then suddenly the media pops up and says gold is "chic AGAIN"!

I swear, sometimes these guys have all the attention span of a fruit fly.

R.

misetich

(10/22/2003; 16:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110724)

US Tsy Official Stresses GSEs Not Federally Guaranteed Oct 22 / 15:52 EDT

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1066852320000Snip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The government does not guarantee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Treasury Department is ready to put a new "harness" on the "horse" that makes sure government liabilities don't increase, a top Treasury Department official said Wednesday
................

"We hired the horse for a purpose, and I think when the farmer puts on the harness he wants to make sure it fits right, he wants to make sure it isn't chafing the horse, but he probably isn't going to consult the horse very much about whether or not the horse ought to be pulling that harness," Abernathy said.
***************
Misetich

ANOTHER periodic "public service reminder" issued by the Feds on the status of GSE's
The Feds are competing head to head with Jay Leno and Letterman for top comedy spot

Best barb of the day - GSE's being compared to a draft horse -

Wonder whether "draft horse insurance" is available to holders of GSE's debt -

A little investigation in "horse insurance clauses" reveals the following
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Be sure to read the cause of death definition carefully. I can recall a case where the coverage only applied to accidental death, such as fire or accident in transportation. The policy did not cover death by natural causes. The policy owner thought the insurance was an "all risk" policy when, in fact, it only covered accidental death.

As a condition to insuring a horse, the insurance company will require an examination and signed document from a veterinarian certifying that the horse is free from any disability, injury or disease at the time the application for insurance is made.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In investors circles GSE's investments held by pension plans, mutual funds are NOT being "certified by a veterinarian (accountant) or being disclosed as being held by these funds THUS investors are reminded of the "insurance clause" *** Be sure to read the cause of death definition carefully.***

Of course one of the byproduct of a horse is....manure ... perhaps that is what Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Wayne Abernathy really meant to compare GSE's with - horse manure

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the White

(10/22/2003; 17:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110725)

OK, only ONE little Greex "X" for today !! <;-) (GOLD P&F Chart)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GOne "X" a day is fine with me !! <;-)
I am betting that we get one more tomorrow !
a ROCKET ---> "To the MOON, Alice !"

CoBra(too)

(10/22/2003; 17:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110726)

Freddie won't cover its Fannie ... Or vice versa -

Nor will the GSE's big brother, as broke is a phenomenon, common to entities, who can't pay their dues.

And if big brother can't pay, hey, do you expect young Freddy to stay around and honor the obligations - once similar to US IOU's - to perform?

@ misetich - Nema Problema - we've already calculated defaults! Or did we? ... At least the ECB warned its member CB's to sell all GSE's some time ago.

The problem seems to be, how to sell all Tsy's as it may be equivalent of shooting in your own knee (Trapped wolves may have their own philosophy)- id est, better critters still move, than being mesmerized by a $- Trap!

Still time to pick up some real value - go(t) gold? cb2

Dollar Bill

(10/22/2003; 17:48:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110727)

Mogumbo sez

- So why does the stock market go up from these prices? How does the bond market go up at these prices? One reason is that the central banks of the world are financing the whole mess by flooding the system with money, and so that damn much money has to go somewhere. And where in the hell do you put that much money? I helpfully suggested that I would be happy to store a bunch in my basement, and even guys from outlaw biker gangs are afraid to go down there, so it is certainly safe. But no dice.

Ergo, the big-ticket items like the stock market, the bond market and the world's real estate are the easiest places to go, and so, like water and electricity finding the shortest way to lower ground, that's where it goes. And price doesn't matter anymore, because tomorrow there will be another big bundle of money coming, and it has to go somewhere, too. And then the day after tomorrow there is going to be another big bundle of money coming that has to go somewhere...

And I gather from this consensus opinion of the world's biggest hotshots that if everybody inflates their money supply at the same time, then the resultant, roaring global price inflation won't matter, because roaring inflation in stocks, and the blistering inflation in bonds, and the screaming inflation in houses, and the soaring inflation in every freaking other thing in the whole economy, will be all hunky-dory with them, because everybody is in the same boat.

And it certainly fights the Fed bogeyman of deflation, which in this case means keeping the absurdly over-priced, over-valued, over-subscribed, over-leveraged assets of any kind from falling so much as one red cent in market price, and the government stands ever-ready to finance any buying, by anybody, at any time, for anything, if it is for a higher price, which keeps prices from going down. The ultimate in government control of the economy!

But, in the final analysis, the government is actually creating inflation, the one thing that is most feared, so that the current prices of overpriced assets will keep inflating! This doesn't sound insane to you? Huh? How can it NOT sound insane? To even espouse such a mentally-ill notion is nothing more than having a raving lunatic at the controls. And when you examine the rules and regulations of the railroad industry, for example, you'll find that there is an actual prohibition against using insane people as locomotive engineers. Fortunately for Greenspan and the Fed, our central bank and government seem to have no such prohibition.

The thing that survives and prospers is gold. And so when the government finally has its back up again the wall, and it will, and gold soars in price to levels undreamt of, prices that never appeared even in my most magnificent and greedy dreams, which usually involves an eager-to-please Barbara Eden, starring as the genie in "I Dream of Jeanie," granting one of two wishes to me, starring as Maj. Anthony Nelson, handsome and brave and single astronaut, these gold-owners will probably be the people the government comes after.

The reason I bring this up is that Marc Faber says, and this is the second warning like this that I have read in the last week alone, that maybe the government will end up confiscating gold, again, since they have already demonstrated that they have the power and willingness to do that. It is a concern, all right. But they give you dollars for it, so they are not actually confiscating it from you. They are forcing you to sell it to them, and get a fair and just number of dollars for the gold. This is the Fifth Amendment prohibition against a "taking" without just compensation, that is in the Constitution, thank God. But, there you are with dollars, the one thing you didn't want.

The added worry, for me, is that this Supreme Court has already amply demonstrated that they are willing to mis-interpret and/or ignore the Constitution according to their wishes, and they will allow new things for the federal government to meddle in, tax, regulate or confiscate. After all, they are already on record as doing that anything that they figure may be in the temporary common good, or suits their tastes, or satisfies their private agendas, is suddenly Constitutional. And things that they don't like are un-Constitutional, to add a little symmetry to their do's and don'ts. So, one may assume, even if you are not even fractionally as paranoid as I, that the prohibition against "takings" is just another part of the Constitution that is now just, alas, pretty words. It's a worry, alright

Great Albino Bat

(10/22/2003; 18:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110728)

GSEs not guaranteed by government....story for today.

The Treasury can disavow any government guarantee of the GSE's, a thousand times.

That is not going to make the slightest difference when Push comes to Shove, and the GSE's are about to go bankrupt.
The government will step in and guarantee every last penny owed by the GSE's. Any objection will be over-ruled in a split second.

As for putting a "harness" on that "horse", the GSEs: it's far, far too late for that. The GSE debt rivals that of the marketable Federal Debt, or getting up into that category. Inconceivable that the GSE's will be allowed to "twist in the wind". No way!

And on the contrary, what the people running the current debacle want, is more debt! Everybody go out and buy an SUV!
Nothing down and six years to pay with no interest.

Buy a house, the mortgage will not include any monthly payments to reduce Principal owed, you only pay the interest for thirty years. Balloon payment at the end.

Treasury is tooting the wrong horn, with talk about "harnessing the horse"!

The GAB

silvercollector

(10/22/2003; 18:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110729)

Sinclair is out on a limb again......

http://www.jsmineset.com Wednesday, October 22, 2003

This is "THE MOVE"

Author: Jim Sinclair

Accumulation leads to mark-up in all markets. The Asian/Islamic accumulation spanned 1996 to the present. The mark-up phase has begun. This is the Big One! Yes, after mark-up comes distribution but this time it might NOT be into any market. Remember what I just told you because this is all I can reveal at this time....

...I may have to visit Asia in November but if I do please understand it's in your best interest.

There is a reason behind the timing of this move in gold that will escape most Western observers. It is a hard one for me to explain because I'm walking on egg shells on this issue.

Aristotle

(10/22/2003; 19:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110730)

Hey Belgian!

Did you hear that??? Sinclair is walking on eggshells! Eggshells!!!!!

Meanwhile, lucky guys like you and me are walking in the footsteps of GIANTS thanks to ANOTHER/FOA and the good graces of MK.

FreeGold, baby! FreeeeeeeeeeeGOOOOOOOOLD!!!

Spread the word.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

specie-man

(10/22/2003; 22:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110731)

10:04 PM MST, NIKKEI IS CRASHING

Just noticed that the Japanese Nikkei stock market index is down about 500 points since the open (more than a 4.5% loss). I expect it to recover somewhat by the end of the trading day (due to intervention). But this does not bode well for US markets on Thursday (or any day in the near future).

Goldendome

(10/22/2003; 22:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110732)

Wowsers! Dollar on the downhill rollercoaster ride!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12New low put in today 91.21... No wonder markets getting spooked again.

Dollar Bill

(10/22/2003; 23:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110733)

:-/

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62345.aspBelkin insights

DummyANI

(10/23/2003; 00:21:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110734)

Nikkei225 crashed minus554.46, ended at 10335.16 point

Rumors said that money from USA were poured into Tokyo stock exchanges. According to Japanese Department of Treasuries data, the inflow of capital for Tokyo Stock Exchanges from Oct. 2002 to May 2003 were total 133 billion dollars.

Their average buying costs of TSE was 8,000 point (Nikkei225 index), and its Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars(from Oct. 2002 to May 2003).

If these stocks were sold at the day before yesterday, their average selling costs of TSE was 11,500 point. and 23.3 trillion Yen was gained. This 23.3 trillion Yen was waiting for a chance to exchange. If G-7 Dubai meeting was not opened, and Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars, Wall Streets money were exchanged into 191 billion dollars, net 58 billion dollars per year were transferred from Japan to USA.

Yesterday, the Yen-rate was 109 Yen per dollar, and if 22.3 trillion Yen was exchanged yesterday, Wall Streets gained 214 billion dollars, net gain were 81 billion dollars per year. G-7 meeting was contributing to 23 billion dollars bonus to Wall Streets.

And there is no reasons to buy Japanese stocks, because Bank of Japan provides no new money to industrial sectors.
Japanese stock-market will be ended in a summer dream.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

slingshot

(10/23/2003; 00:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110735)

It's about that time of year

Christmas Shopping I can not help but think about what the retailors will do this season. I have not been to the Malls but I suspect with all the layoffs,(even some at my job) will have a profound effect on sales. More window shopping than buying?
Credit cards will lead the way only to have the bills come due in January for late shoppers like myself. Sixty days more or less will make or break some businesses.
Just something to think about.
Slingshot--------------<>

Operative

(10/23/2003; 01:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110736)

Goodyear to Slice $100 Million From Earnings to 1998, Blaming Accounting System

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA5HEYA4MD.htmlSnip:

CLEVELAND (AP) - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. is delaying its quarterly earnings report as it works to repair accounting system errors that will force the nation's largest tire maker to lower net income since 1998 by as much as $100 million
Accounting entry errors also were involved, but Price said he could not confirm whether someone had simply "punched in the wrong numbers." The Akron, Ohio-based company had no further details other than what was in the statement, he said, declining to reveal when the errors were discovered.

Comment: I think the history books of the future will summerize the beginning of the new millieum that begin in 2000 AD as the "Age of Deception". Yeah, that ought to just about cover the events we are living through today.

Operative

(10/23/2003; 01:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110737)

Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to ease price controls

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=561&fArticleId=266970Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to ease price controls
Snip:
Beijing - The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China's sole exchange for the metal, said yesterday it planned to give members more time to pay for purchases or deliver on sales to boost business and prepare for futures trading.

Since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001, the government has said China wants to foster more competition in its commodity markets. The exchange opened on October 30 last year, marking the first time domestic prices were not set by the government since 1949, and to date 194.75 metric tons of gold have been traded worth 18.3 billion yuan (R15.82 billion). China consumes 213 metric tons of gold each year.

FPRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT=Click here"

This would certainly activate the gold exchanges and boost the transaction volume, helping China's efforts to let the market control gold prices, said Roland Wang, a regional manager of the World Gold Council, in Beijing.

Loosening price controls in China may boost demand and reflect gains in gold in international markets. "

Comment: "...MAY boost demand..."??? Would think this would have a very similar effect to when those credit card companies increase my wife's credit line, she goes shopping.

Operative

(10/23/2003; 01:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110738)

If One Cannot Follow Giants Footsteps, How About Bengalis ?

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?msid=247436Gender no bar in festival of glitter & gold

They were all busy with Dhanteras. Anjali Jewellers, M.P. Jewellers, Subir Sirkar, Dutta Guinea Palace , Guinea Emporium... all have let loose an ad blitz to ride the crest of the Diwalieve custom.
Senco Gold plays up Moonmoon Sen with daughters, and that's to cash in on Indian fondness for jewellery rather than Raima's link with Aishwarya's adornment in Chokher Bali.
Dhanteras has replaced Nababarsho as the time to shop for the auspicious metal that symbolises prosperity in every Indian home.
Now, even Bengalis must buy gold and silver on the day that once had north Indians stocking the metals.

Comment: My favorite part, "...the auspicious metal that SYMBOLISES PROSPERITY in every Indian home." ANOTHER way of saying wealth. While Americans chase/play paper games, India and China are going for THE gold, so to speak.

DummyANI

(10/23/2003; 02:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110739)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�c...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7 <---normal-short
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�c...386.8 <---wrong-short

D-ANI: Mitsui�fs wrong-short positions are nearly cleared today.
Tokyo stock market clashed today, down nearly 550 points. This is caused by a New-York money, and fundamental conditions of Japanese financial sectors are no-changed at all. A new bull-trend of gold has been restarted today.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

White Rose

(10/23/2003; 04:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110740)

What is on that Tape?

Mr. Sinclair posted the following on his website (in a section titled "The Move").

>>>>>>
You may notice that there is a complete media blackout - except for a small quotation that fits Western PR interests - on the recently authenticated Osama bin Laden tape released by the Qatar-based satellite station Al-Jazeera, the Arab version of CNN.

The reason why gold is rising and the dollar is falling into new low territory is contained in that tape. That again is all I can really say as an American in light of our new constitution, Patriot 2.
<<<<<<

OK, I'm curious now. What is he referring to? Is it possible to get an English translation of this recent Osama tape? Is is even asking this question the same as treason in Mr. Bush's America?

silvercollector

(10/23/2003; 04:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110741)

Interesting article

http://www.news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1168382003It would be nice to read 2 articles on Iraq with the same viewpoint. Every story on Iraq is different, there is no concensus.

What is the truth?

Paper Avalanche

(10/23/2003; 05:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110742)

Futures / Spot appear to be equal

I am watching the futures price of gold on CNBC as well as the live spot trade on the internet. It appears that there is no delta between spot POG and futures POG. They were both listed at 386.20. I may be off a bit due to a lag in reporting time, but even at that, it would appear that the paper market is loosing ground to physical and, unless TPTB capitulate to backwardation in the futures, physical will likely push the paper gold market over the cliff.

I may be wrong.

Take care.

PA

Topaz

(10/23/2003; 05:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110743)

@White Rose

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8E8EA580-943C-4FBF-9ABD-21B47627FECD.htmeom

Cor Tauri

(10/23/2003; 05:44:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110744)

Full text of Usama Bin Ladin's message to US

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5008.htmWhite Rose, this may be what you are looking for.

A portion follows:

"To Bush I say, you are begging the world to come to your aid, begging mercenaries from every corner of the world, even from small states. This begging has destroyed your pride and revealed how trivial and weak you are after claiming to defend the whole world.

[...]

"We reserve the right to retaliate at the appropriate time and place against all countries involved, especially the UK, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan and Italy, not to exclude those Muslim states that took part, especially the Gulf states, and in particular Kuwait, which has become a beachhead for the crusading forces.

There is lots more to the message at the link. On a lighter note did anyone else read the url that NEMO posted. The one about Saudi Arabia purchasing nukes from Pakistan. It was interesting.

Buy gold? Duh!

White Rose

(10/23/2003; 06:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110745)

Thanks to one and all

Thanks for the link to the transcript. It did not help solve the mystery of what was Jim Sinclair referring to.

Take the view of Michael Rupert of "From the Wilderness" that the next really major adventure of the American elite is the destabzlization of Saudi Arabia and the subsequent American occupation of the Saudi oil fields. Essentially the 2004 election amounts to the candidates pitching their ability to pull this off to the multinational and banking elites.

The presence of a Paki/Saudi nuclear umbrella is a very, very major development. It may be changing the whole equation. In fact, the nuclear issue may be one of the reasons for the gold price rise.

cockerel1

(10/23/2003; 07:04:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110746)

Cor Tauri - msg#: 110744

Snippet from Bin Laden's speech:

"And the greatest folly in life is to sell your life for the lives of others."

Whether you agree or disagree with Bush or Bin Laden, this one snippet shows, IMO, how twisted and hypocritical people can be from all walks of life.

Surely this statement also applies to the nineteen terrorists who sold their lives for "riches" so that their families could be looked after, and also to Hussein's people who were being paid to kill U.S. personnel.

Zhisheng

(10/23/2003; 07:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110747)

Backwardization.

There seems to be about 70 to 90 cents difference between the December futures and spot, which is low, but still in line with yesterday.

contrarian

(10/23/2003; 07:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110748)

Sinclair's thoughts

I remember reading some time back from either him or someone else...the next front Al Queda will fight is economic, where they can wreak far more damage than 9/11.

Perhaps they are behind the push up in gold, and doing it at an especially inopportune time for the stock market, the merry month of October? Maybe they want to crash the stock market just like what happened after 9/11, and this time really bring it down, along with the derivative-polluted major banks like JPM, Citibank, BofA, and the whole Western economic system!

Perhaps the powers that be will let this happen THIS TIME, and allow the stocks to fall, because they may feel there would be enough time for another bear market rally before Nov 2004, so then they could be in the middle of a bear market bull rally in Aug-Sept-Oct, and then say, "that's the end of the bear market, stocks are zooming up"--elect Bush.

Bin Laden seems to be alive, and I suspect he's too crafty to pull out the same tactics of physical attack.

On another thought, I remember reading somewhere sometime back that the question in the Bush administration was whether to broaden the war (Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia) before or after the 2004 election. There's pros and cons to both, whether an enlargement of the conflict will lose votes, or win them via the patriotic angle.

Hence, if the administration got desperate and if the move forward decision was to be made, I would think it would be done close to the election, to make it seem imperative to not upset the political order, and simply reelect Bush.

Just putting out some thoughts for feedback.

Gandalf the White

(10/23/2003; 11:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110749)

CORRECTION was made to the Gold P&F Chart !!!! <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PI WAS right ! --- THERE were TWO little Green "X"'s added yesterday instead of one ! Looks as if the Chartmaker at Stockcharts.com makes at least as many errors as the Ol'e Wiz ! <;-)
SOOOO, that makesup for the needed one Green "X" a day for today, as the ROCKET is starting to move in an UPWARD direction --- "TO THE MOON, Alice" !!
<;-)

specie-man

(10/23/2003; 11:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110750)

Bin Laden quote

"We reserve the right to retaliate at the appropriate time and place against all countries involved, especially the UK, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan and Italy, not to exclude those Muslim states that took part, especially the Gulf states, and in particular Kuwait, which has become a beachhead for the crusading forces."

I wonder if this is a correct translation. What is with that "We reserve the right" business ? It is like someone saying "I reserve the right to run over little old ladies in the street". As if that statement would somehow protect them from future legal action. "Yes, I ran over a little old lady, but I 'reserved the right' to do so, so it is ok, and you can't do anything about it".

In other words, what does Bin Laden care about legal "rights", and why would he say that ? Maybe his next attack will be along legal/economic lines ?

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/23/2003; 11:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110751)

Page Update!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/23/2003; 12:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110752)

Gold bullion for building your financial base

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Great Albino Bat

(10/23/2003; 13:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110753)

The Secret that binds all Central Bankers together:

The GAB offers some guano with regard to Central Bankers:

In order to form part of the circle of ANY Central Bank, you must know the Secret.

If you do not know the Secret, you cannot form part of the circle.

If you do not know the Secret, you do not deserve to know it and you will not be told.

The Secret is not comunicated. It is not written or spoken. If you do not know it, no one will tell it to you.

If you know the Secret, you are qualified to form part of the Inner Circle, after you have convincingly proved that you have sold your soul to the Brotherhood of the Inner Circle.

What is the Secret? Here it is revealed:

"The object of the Central Bank is Power. Not prosperity, not stability, not Peace nor Justice for the population, nor any other ostensible purpose. The purpose is: Raw Power.

"Paper money is the means for achieving that Power. Power is not shared; Power seeks, always, more Power.

"The world's greatest Power derives from contol of the money that individuals use. The ultimate control, is the creation, at will, of that money. Paper or fiat money represents the ultimate liberation of Power from any restraint.

"Power must be defended against any rival, at all costs.

"The mortal enemy of paper or fiat money, is real money, gold and/or silver, since these cannot be created by the Central Bankers.

"The Brotherhood of the Inner Circle of Central Bankers of the World, will fight at all costs, against the idea of gold and/or silver as money.

"Within the Brotherhood, there is a Hierarchy; those below will follow the orders of those above, without hesitation.

"If one above holds that 2+2=5, those below will support that position, without questioning it.

"The Brotherhood of the Inner Circle of Central Bankers of the World, is malignant in nature and Satanic in its orientation; it is an enemy of mankind and adores only, and above all things, its own Power."

Such is the Secret. Now you know Where We Are At.

The GAB

Gandalf the White

(10/23/2003; 16:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 110754)

COMEX Data UPDATE

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX Contract Data
10/17/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8
===
The Hobbits like that ROUND NUMBER $385.
IT has a GOLDEN RING !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/23/2003; 16:55:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110755)

GOLD P&F Chart <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GBTW, do you notice that the "High Pole Reversal" warning notice given after the "FRIDAY MASSICRE" has now DISAPPERARED !
---
Remember that I told "yawl" <;-) --- NO WAY ! Mai Chai !! to the implied lower prices by the definition of the High Pole Warning.
--
"The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
--
Watch for the new forthcoming P&F Chart "Alert", coming soon!
<;-)

steady

(10/23/2003; 18:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110756)

civility returns to the fourn?

21mabry

(10/23/2003; 19:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110757)

(No Subject)

Bin Laden is as difficult to catch as Emmanuel Goldstein.They get us all worked up with these two minute hates.Really good strength yesterday in the paper metal markets.Hopefully they are fortelling a nice spike in the physicals price.Talking with a fiend he insists the HUI and XAU are technicaly set up for a nice up run.I am far from an expert on technical analysys but this guy has been very successful in the past.21

21mabry

(10/23/2003; 19:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110758)

GAB

From your past posts I feel you know something about the esoteric side of the world we live in.Gold has played a huge role in these plan within plans.If it protects the elites wealth it can protect us as well.Just thinking about you outloud GAB.21

rysa

(10/23/2003; 21:01:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110759)

Avoiding the Crash of Debt Money

Most experienced financial analysts see the destruction of the US currency sometime in the near future. There could be either a deflationary crash like the depression era or a tremendous inflation that could approach the German inflation of 1918 to 1923.

The Dollar being the reserve currency has allowed the USA to create a tremendous debt bubble. All bubbles pop and this one will also. Unfortunately when a currency fails it is bad for the whole country but when the world's reserve currency fails it will be catastrophic. The question is how can it be avoided.

With billions of people all over the world seeking safety in gold and other precious metals the anxiety levels are increasing into the unknown. We may find out we can gain some measure of security and rewards in buying gold but the end result is the fact that the world is heading for a disaster during this interim period.

In hopes our world does not degenerate into a totalitarian plutocracy wherein the lives of billions are lost and the remaining citizens are reduced to slavery what are the currency options of the world. I believe it comes through the intergration of current technological infrastructures and upgrading banking systems to establish a full spectral commodity / asset based economic system.

In the honest money debates on this forum recently they got me to think that EVERY commodity could be holding the temporary and dynamic value during an exchange between traders. If the internet, the energy infrastructures survive the transition this new asset backed currency system has a chance of working. If we lose our modern technologies then I find all other possiblities suggested, such as a return to gold will be met with barbaric and violent actions. I think the USA has already tried to present what the new currency system in their mind is, Bullets.

Mr Gresham

(10/23/2003; 22:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110760)

rysa

Nice post, and Welcome!, and I'll wade in with just a few recent thoughts. Yes, any commodity could stand for real value, but when you talk about it being part of a monetary infrastructure hitched to modern technology, that translates out to "Somebody else holding your soybeans in a warehouse, somewhere." and "I've got my receipt, right here." Another Account.

Since the overwhelming thrust of our era is "Scam artists making off with your savings", I don't see how any such system will work well for a long time in both of its two minimal requirements: (1) They actually ARE holding the goods. and (2) Other people BELIEVE they actually are holding the goods. And thus, will accept your "scrip" representing that holding.

Absent this new world of honesty and trust, the alternative, in whatever commodity you prefer, is to HOLD IT YOURSELF. At least that is the crucible of value-preservation we are going to pass through in the years ahead. And it will result in a discounting of the forms of representative "moneys" offered by even the honest fiduciaries.

I wish gold money innovators like James Turk well in harnessing such ideas, but they too will be called into question, perhaps unfairly.

Had just a quick random read-a-few-pages in Davidson's "Sovereign Individual" and my impression was it seemed to rely on this higher-level techonological tracking holding up. (Transferring money or value online out of gov's reach.) Well, those casinos in the Bahamas (or are in Kiev?), they can "transfer" your money, too, can't they?

I think one of the frustrating facts about gold, for people who always want to be "doing something", is that it does NOTHING. It just sits there. And it's awfully hard to whip up all kinds fooferall about it, really, except for maybe stamping some pretty faces on the surfaces of the coins ( ;) ) And that's maybe what's kept it going, for all these centuries/millennia.

Sometimes -- in an extreme age of mega scams -- you simply want your money to "just SIT there." And be there when you wake up tomorrow.

GratefulForGold

(10/23/2003; 22:38:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110761)

Mr Gresham @msg. #110760

You said: "I think one of the frustrating facts about gold, for people who always want to be "doing something", is that it does NOTHING. It just sits there. And it's awfully hard to whip up all kinds fooferall about it, really, except for maybe stamping some pretty faces on the surfaces of the coins ( ;) ) And that's maybe what's kept it going, for all these centuries/millennia."

####

Yes, indeed, in the incredibly fast paced con-world of today, the "just sitting there" aspect (along with "under MY control") is of great comfort to me! That's why I'm primarily in PHYSICAL and less so the PM stock market!

But, I do have fun imagining if I were to "re-design" some of my gold ... what would I make out of it? Gives my mind some nice flights of fancy.

Lady GFG

(Nice to see you posting, Mr Gresham -- you've been missed!)

Mr Gresham

(10/23/2003; 22:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110762)

Oh harken, unto the Great Bat!

and what he said about fiat and the quest for Power. And such a Secret, for us to consider (though, pray, not emulate. May we remember the virtue -- the Strength -- of remaining "small dogs".)

Most of us do not understand the level of unconscionable control that is sought by those who gravitate to such a game. We mostly "live and let live" and couldn't stomach becoming such a one. We don't spend much time learning to "think like a criminal" -- not much in it for us -- but for them, a lifetime's employment.

In ancient times, the tip or threat of the sword was the path to Power. And it is still so in most of the world, (TPTB will abandon no tool prematurely!) and the threat of violence lies behind even the most blandly bureaucratic gov we endure today. But:

In a technological society, where you need a class of trained (I won't say "educated") operators to wear nice clothes and keep their hands clean while tending the paper/computer system, you want to SUPPORT their _CONCEIT_ that they are living in the BEST OF ALL TIMES. "Not like those SWEATY, GRIMY, BLOODY times of old." "Not like those grainy black&white photos of the 1930's Depression breadline Era." "We've got it GREAT now!"

That IS what EVERYONE THINKS!

Brownshirts in the streets breaking shop windows would spoil the whole portrait. (Not that there couldn't come a time when the picture was shot anyway, and you needed the SA at your call, for more dramatic effect. USA been there, USA done that, micro version at least.)

So you have to fool them into giving up the one-half of their figurative wheat crop (their hours of labor and consciousness as consumers) WITHOUT THE APPEARANCE OF VIOLENCE by having an extractive currency/wage/tax system quietly operating, that renders them the same treadmill-of-survival life as medieval peasants endured. (Without all those raucous feast days, and troubador songs, and great peasant dresses, however.)

How would you BEGIN to educate people to the nature of the financial beast they live within? (I ask you to recall they shocked numbness you went around in for a few days after first reading Griffin's "Creature". And then consider how ready others are, or are not, to even grasp the tenth part of that bit of revelation. In other words, it is a Game that is likely to WORK, and not be caught out, until it reaches its Extractive Extremity. It has sucked the victim's blood empty, without a complaint.)

The Fed rules, if it does, by "hiding in plain sight", in other words, it's so much a part of US life, via its FRNs, that few question the premises of its existence. That's why it takes spending multiple hours in the pages of a book _with a viewpoint_ questioning those premises. (Greider didn't quite do that -- just an amused offhand observer role. But Griffin really broke new ground.)

And few can imagine life without it. ("WHAT! No MONEY!?? Where will we get THE MONEY from?")

But even the Fed can't solve the problem when the system gets so junked up that the Lord of the Castle is riding out to the fields demanding an additional quarter of your crop, as a "special assessment", for "defense of the Realm." Starving peasants ask unpleasant questions. Too bad so many of them, and their children, die, before one ends up skewering the Lord on one of his nightly rounds.

slingshot

(10/23/2003; 23:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110763)

Great Posts

Rysa
Mr. Gresham
Great Albino Bat

Slingshot-----------------<>

Mr Gresham

(10/23/2003; 23:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110764)

Lady GFG

Thanks, and part of my recent thoughts about "doing something" was that I was visiting and daily "working" this Forum for something I was lacking in everyday life, and a lot of things weren't getting taken care of.

Like basically just "showing up" for the rest of my work and business life. (Watching gold might be MK's business, but it can't be mine, not for another couple decades anyway...;)

Part of what happens in the financial world, especially for people who are locked in on employee careers (not me), and have little control over their future prosperities, is that they "need" something else to be happening to get them where they want to be, financially. So they play stocks, gamble, etc. etc.

They feel helpless, or at least powerless, in the maw of great forces. (And even a lot of our economic reading here -- not to deny the value of knowing what's true -- can be overwhelming and contribute to feeling powerless.) So they watch, and watch -- watch their investments -- like watering a garden, they feel, which it really isn't. Superstitiously, the human animal tries to make a desired end happen by PAYING ATTENTION TO IT!

Our/my version was watching the POG actions day to day, week to week. When REALLY, what owning gold was giving us the chance to do, was to GO AWAY on a Financial Vacation (maybe like FOA has done?) for about as long as we need to, anytime we want to.

Don't have to DO anything, anything about it, because IT doesn't do anything. It just "sits there."

But this Forum was/is my connection to gold, and the decisions I made. Yes, come back, post recreationally, greet friends, learn more great stuff, reprocess old thought relationships and find new depth of wisdom (enjoy how workhorses like Belgian and Ari are resting, then digging deeper, resting, working, etc). But remove the back-conscious idea that being here makes anything happen differently than it would have. That the superstitious side I needed to sniff out of myself.

You are not powerless, but your power does not lie here. Your power to grow wealth lies in the rest of your life, and the wisdom to preserve it against fraudulent fiatry lies here.

Visit here, like you would have a good chat with friends working at the local bank, but don't move into the bank lobby. Anyway, that is just the formative thoughts I have about my first few years here, from August 1999 on. Pretty intense period, but I was working this Forum pretty hard for things that were missing from my larger life. There was/is lots here, BUT ::: not everything. Eh?

(I tend to be the type that really digs in, until I've got everything I think is there...with learning, that's always an unknown arrival point, isn't it? I love the feeling of it -- hooked, have to pull myself away...)

"The highway is for gamblers
Better use your sense.
Take what you have gathered from coincidence."

Bob Dylan -- It's All Over Now, Baby Blue

slingshot

(10/24/2003; 00:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110765)

Mr. Gresham Msg#110764

Powerless, Helpless I can agree there are times when a situation becomes helpless and you are powerless to correct it. The sudden impact that you could not foresee like an auto accident that happens in a second. Yet in general I feel for most problems it is the failure of recognition at its beginning and so the problem festers and more energy or resourses are needed to end the pain. I find I am plagued by a"Can Do" attitude and an inovative mind. My thought processes are different than others and can make me Friend or Foe. So, here I am A Friend of this Forum and a Foe to those who seek paper wealth. I do not despair if gold moves in small increments ,up and down.

I just know the paper game will end and my investment or insurance in gold will pay off.

What draws me here.

Besides the best info on the gold market.

It's the terrific, down to earth people who post here.

Slingshot-------------<>

Aristotle

(10/24/2003; 00:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110766)

Oh, come on now, Mr. Gresham! (RE:#762)

Hearken to the what? Splatter????

After demonstrating the Excellence of your own ability to cogitate in #760 (and #64!!), surely a guy like you knows, at least deep down, that the Bat's #753 anti-CBer rant was naught but a steaming pile of.... guano!

He paints with such a broad and sloppy brush in that one that in a single stroke methinks even my OWN shoes are befouled!

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeesh.

To your credit, I see how you used it *primarily* as mere segue to your own treatment on the subject of Power, but still, your fine words suffer from the tainted beginnings.

To thine own self/thoughts be true. It is your strong point, Mr. G!! And truth be known, if names were currency, I'd gladly take one Gresham over a thousand GABs, Greiders, and Griffins!!

That's all to say, Ride forth in the glorious splendor of your own intuition; shrug off the burden of your upbringing! You're definitely one of my most favorites, a purveyor of rational thought, so don't go dissappointing me by buying into the "G"reat heaps of standard G-buggery indoctrinations.

October 14th 2003. Free thinking. Free Gold.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

slingshot

(10/24/2003; 00:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110767)

Sir Aristotle Msg #110766

I have never had a banker give me an even break. Have you? They have the money you want to do what you want to do.

They will not give you a loan without collateral. Just good business. And banks of course compete for your business but if you think you are the benefactor if something goes wrong. They get your collateral and if your loan can not be paid off by the sale of it, you have to make up the diference.
Funny thing about bankers. In a war there are bankers are on both sides. They can't lose. Although the one on the winning side will have more POWER, he will raise the fallen bank up to a greater accumulation of wealth before the war.
They control the property and increase their power.
I am sure that deals go back and forth all the time and WE are not in the Know. Bankers Know Bankers. They are not going to tell us a damn thing. Unless of course they are going to make a lot of money.

Not trying to be smart. Just have a bad taste in my mouth for bankers
Slingshot--------------<>

Mr Gresham

(10/24/2003; 01:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110768)

Ari -- thanks, I think...

Well, GAB is someone who I've enjoyed immensely since he arrived here with his wit and humor. Perhaps, then, my critical faculties are not on full guard to all he avows in each and every posting, but I must admit, when I see his handle coming up over the edge of the screen, and a solid-looking post beneath it, I lick my chops, go get a glass of fine wine, and sit down in comfort to enjoy a good read. (I've savored one of your longer ones similarly in recent days. And all this accomplished on a one-glass-per-evening ration!)

He would be on my All-Star team for people who consistently bring us some good thoughts and good reading.

I still think we distill what truth there is here out of everyone's best creative efforts, and yes, they spark me to put pen to paper. Fine-pointed factuality can be restored from a higher viewpoint, achieved together in good spirit.

And, while we're on it, what WAS that deal struck in 1696 or so, that founded the Bank of England? Didn't that have something to do with war funding, as has much CB functioning ever since? And just 'cause Al Greenspan has never picked up, besides his tennis racket, anything as heavy a caliber as Al Capone used, doesn't displace the idea of Power behind these dealings.

Dunno, just some random thoughts thrown together on a chilly eve by the fire...always good to chat w'ye...

Mr Gresham

(10/24/2003; 01:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110769)

Priorities

This is a good one, from "fisher" on Prudent Bear forum, and now I'm off to zzzzzzzzzzz:

"When things in your life seem almost too much to handle, when 24 hours in a day are not enough, remember the mayonnaise jar.....and the beer.

A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him. When the class began, wordlessly, he picked up a very large empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the jar was full. They agreed that it was.

So, the professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open spaces between the golf balls. He asked the students again if the jar was full.They agreed it was.

The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full. The students responded with a unanimous "yes."

The professor then produced two cans of beer from under the table and poured the entire
contents into the jar, effectively filling the empty spaces between the sand. The students laughed.

"Now," said the professor, as the laughter subsided. "I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls symbolize the important things -- your family, your children, your health, your friends and your passions -- things that if everything else was lost and only they remained, you life would still be full.

The pebbles symbolize other things that matter, like your job, your house and your car.

The sand is everything else, the small stuff. If you put the sand into the jar first, there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life. If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff, you will never have room for the things that are important to you.

Pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness. Play with your children. Take time to get medical checkups. Take your partner out to dinner. Play another 18 holes. There will always be time to clean the house, and fix the disposal.Take care of the golfballs first, the things that really matter. Set your priorities. The rest is just sand."

One of the students raised her hand and inquired what the beer represented.

The professor smiled. "I'm glad you asked. It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there's always room for a couple of beers." (and maybe a couple rounds of golf) :)

DummyANI

(10/24/2003; 04:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110770)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971� plus4164�...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212� plus2241�...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535� plus2323�...381.8
Sep. 30 35,582. minus0953�...383.2
Oct. 01 38,117� plus2535�...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758� plus1405�...383.7 �---normal-short
Oct. 06 53,796� plus15038�...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706� plus4910�...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629� plus5923�...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil� ..�nil� ��....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787� plus1430�...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631� plus2224�...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474� plus4843�...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�...382.0 �---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�...386.8 �---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993�...385.0

D-ANI: Mitsui cleared his wrong-short positions.
This is a very difficult task for an amateur trader.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/24/2003; 05:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110771)

A little long but worth reading - from The Daily Reckoning

CONVERGENCE UNDER THE BED SPREAD
by Dan Denning

Illusions often die a sudden and not-so respectable death.

The other day on the Paris Metro, an overweight, middle aged woman took to the center of the car and muttered under her breath repeatedly "Pere Noel est Morte." Santa Claus is dead.

While this was not news to me (nor was it exactly true, in the sense that Santa Claus doesn't really exist), it was quite shocking to the handful of children within ear shot. A crash in the Santa index ensued.

Such is the fate of misplaced faith, which brings us to the U.S. bond market. The conventional way to measure general systemic risk in the U.S. bond market is known as the TED spread. It's the market's measure of how close we are to total financial meltdown -- the much anticipated "Financial Reckoning Day"...

Technically speaking, the TED spread is the difference between interest rates on the 90-day U.S. Treasury and the 90-day Eurodollar deposit contract. Eurodollars are dollar-denominated deposits held by commercial banks outside the United States and in Europe. All things being equal, when they are packaged up and sold like U.S. bonds, the issuer must pay a slightly higher interest rate than on the 90-day T-bill.

The issuer pays the higher interest rate because the U.S. government collects its revenues at the barrel of a gun, and commercial banks do not. This, presumably, makes the U.S. government a "safer" credit risk, e.g. less likely to default. And so the Feds don't have to pay as high an interest rate to attract buyers.

The TED spread measures systemic risk. It's premised on the belief that the U.S. bond market is the financial world's safe haven of last resort. But what, to borrow a phrase from Michael Moore, if that's a big fat lie?

A few weeks back, Addison Wiggin and I attended a luncheon in London offered by the folks at Arbor Research. Their lead research analyst, Jim Bianco, gave a riveting account of derivatives risks at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. After Jim's speech, I asked him, over sandwiches, what I perceived to be a natural question. "What would happen if the credit quality of U.S. government debt were to be downgraded?" citing as possible causes the Treasury's implied guarantee of Fannie and Freddie. [Similar themes are explored, by the way, by Antony Mueller, in his essay: The End Of Dollar Supremacy?

"It would never happen," Bianco replied, "That would mean the end of the modern financial system." Needless to say, Jim's response got me thinking.

If the U.S. bond market isn't as safe as you've been told, how would you know? How can you actually measure how close we are to the day of gloom and doom and $8,000 gold?

You'd begin to have an idea that the world was going to hell in a hand-basket if you could measure the spread between U.S. debt (which WE know to be risky) and debt that the market considers risky, namely baseline emerging market debt (BED).

A BED spread, you say? Ask... and you shall receive.

The BED spread (or BS as it's been called by a few readers) is the proprietary indicator I developed to keep track of how close the U.S. government is to losing its reputation for creditworthiness.

To get it, I established a spread between emerging market debt and U.S. government debt. If I'm right about the U.S. bond market losing its gold-standard reputation, the spread should converge over time. U.S. government bond yields will rise as the dollar falls. And emerging market debt yields will fall, as it becomes comparatively less risky than dollar-denominated debt.

You COULD come up with an indicator by comparing the 10-year Treasury note with, say, an equivalent Argentine or Russian government note. But I prefer to take a broader measure of emerging market debt versus U.S. government debt. I picked two closed-end bond funds, GVT and EMD.

GVT is the Morgan Stanley Government Income Trust. One hundred percent of the fund's assets are dollar denominated. When I first calculated the BED spread, about three weeks ago, GVT yielded 4.18%. That was higher than the yield on the 10-year note at the time (4.04%.) But GVT is an excellent proxy for the market's general perception of the creditworthiness of the U.S. government because it's a "basket" of government bonds. Here are its top five holdings and allocations:

1. U.S. Treasuries 30.28% 2. Short-term bonds 27.99% 3. Fannie Mae bonds 23.02% 4. Freddie Mac bonds 11.96% 5. Ginnie Mae bonds 6.75%

To represent the other side of the spread, emerging market debt, look at EMD, the Salomon Brothers Emerging Market bond index. Eighty-eight percent of the fund's holdings are in sovereign (government) debt. While it's not absolute, you're basically comparing apples to apples... the bonds of emerging market governments versus Uncle Sam's bonds. Here is how EMD's top five holdings are allocated:

1. Brazil 23.57% 2. Mexico 20.87% 3. Russia 17.97% 4. Colombia 5.08% 5. Ecuador 5.05%

When I first calculated the BED spread, EMD yielded 9.76%. So about three weeks ago, the BED spread was 5.58%. Based on the wide spread, the market did NOT perceive a great deal of risk in U.S. government debt. But that would soon change...

The second time I calculated the BED spread, the yield on EMD fell to 9.59%, while GVT's yield was up to 4.22%. In bond speak, that means bond prices are up for EMD and down for DVT (yields and prices move in the opposite direction).

The new BED spread was 5.37%. Convergence approacheth. And it's precisely what you'd expect, given the news in the bond market that week. Why?

First, Moody's Investors Service upgraded the rating on Russia's foreign-currency bonds by two levels. Russia's Eurobonds were upgraded to Baa3 -- the lowest investment grade level -- from Ba2. Specifically, Russia's 5% dollar bond due in 2030 gained 2.65 cents on the dollar in one day.

That particular bond is the most traded emerging market Eurobond. And it was bound to help EMD. While 17% of the fund's total assets are in Russian debt, its single largest holding is $7.7 million worth of Russian government bonds -- about 10% of its total portfolio.

Second, emerging market debt yields are converging with U.S. Treasury yields, because what's good for Russia is turning out to be good for other emerging market bonds, including Brazil. Brazil's 8% bond due in 2014, which is THE MOST widely traded emerging market bond, rose that week too, as yields fell. Brazilian bonds constitute 23.5% of EMD's portfolio, and four of its 10 largest particular holdings.

On the other side of the spread -- the U.S. government side -- there was trouble in agency security land. Agency securities are otherwise known as the mortgage-backed bonds issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. And like a dream it can't wake up from, the market is slowly recognizing how many bad credit risks Freddie and Fannie have taken... and how this directly implicates the creditworthiness of the U.S. government, whose implied guarantee of agency debt made it possible for Freddie and Fannie to get so overextended in the first place.

The problem reared its ugly head in Atlanta and Pittsburgh a week ago. Federal Home Loan Banks in both cities reported losses of $9 million and $7 million, respectively, for the third quarter. Both banks claimed the losses came from low mortgage rates "pinching off" interest income on their derivatives holdings.

Perverse, isn't it? It's those same low interest rates that have kept mortgage issuance and refinancing activity so high. Yet even what's been historically good for the mortgage lenders is now turning out to be a problem.

Granted, $9 million and $7 million losses won't break the bank. But the $200 million loss reported by the New York FHLB last month gets closer to breakage. THAT loss was chalked up to bad investments. And that brings us to the heart of the issue, with agency debt in particular and U.S. government debt in general.

Freddie and Fannie have been issuing mortgage-backed debt at a ferocious pace in the era of historically low mortgage rates. It's dangerous risk-taking predicated on the ability of new homeowners to pay off mortgages AND the appetite of bond investors for mortgage backed securities. Yet that's exactly the kind of investment that went bad in New York. And that's the investment that will likely go bad all over the country.

To keep expanding, the housing boom must attract more and more buyers. The voracious need for new buyers forces Freddie and Fannie to lend to riskier borrowers. To keep the boom going, the market extends more and more generous offers to less and less qualified buyers.

Eventually, Fannie and Freddie will be on the hook in two ways. They will have made loans to homeowners who can't pay. And they will have packaged up those loans and sold them as bonds to bondholders who will, I'm guessing, demand payment.

Who will pay the bondholders when the homeowners default? The U.S. government? Santa Claus? The Daily Reckoning Paris office? You?

The U.S. government ALREADY has its hands full paying its own sovereign debt, not to mention Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. GVT, which has 30% of its holdings in Treasuries and 35% in agencies, is a great proxy for the credit problems of the U.S. government.

We saw it again this week, as the Treasury department reported a $374 billion deficit for the fiscal year ended in September. That number was better than the White House predicted back in July. But it's not exactly good. And it wasn't exactly good for the BED spread.

As of this writing, EMD yields 9.50% and GVT yields 4.24% for a spread of 5.26. That's three weeks in a row of convergence... from 5.58 to 5.37 to 5.26.

The spread would be even larger if Treasuries still didn't enjoy their reputation as safe havens. Yields on the 10-year note climbed as high as 4.46% before stocks retreated when the Conference Board reported that the leading economic indicators fell in September.

And who knows, after all? I could be completely wrong. Perhaps 10-year notes won't rise much beyond 5%, if that. But I suspect otherwise. I suspect there is looming chaos in the bond market, spawned by Fannie, Freddie, and the simple belief that U.S. bonds will always be accepted as safe and dependable.

If you believe that, I'd like to introduce you to my big, fat friend in his bright red suit.

Warm regards,

Dan Denning,
for The Daily Reckoning

heavy mettle

(10/24/2003; 05:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110772)

More guano for the fire. The CB, then and now.

http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=1353&id=61
Snippets:

"The simplicity of the Fed's early existence did not last. Like a weed with a foothold in a garden, its expansion was inevitable. Indeed, prime fertilizer lay right around the corner. Wars and the great expansion in the scope and power of government during the first half of the twentieth century gave the central bank a more prominent place in the financial affairs of the country. By mid-century the Federal Reserve System had become a bona fide central bank with headquarters in Washington. The old semiautonomous nature of the reserve banks, like the semiautonomous nature of the individual states, fell increasingly under the leaden authority of the federal government."

[ . . . ]

"Gold was the most prominent feature of the monetary scene prior to the dark winter of 1913. A man could not talk about money without mentioning gold. The new institution was expected to follow gold standard rules, its founders had thought. Gold movements, it was thought, would still determine long-run price changes. How wrong they would be."

"The disappearance of gold from the monetary scene is perhaps the most tragic economic calamity to befall the world of money in the twentieth century. Views on gold in the first two decades of the twentieth century compared to those held today could scarcely be more different."

"Gold as money used to be a consensus view. In what sounds strange to modern ears, Meltzer writes "Central bankers and most economists in the 1920s regarded the gold standard as essential for monetary stability."

Good read and lots about precious. Thanks GAB, Mr. Gresham and Ari for your posts. Always enjoy reading them.

Caradoc

(10/24/2003; 05:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110773)

Sinclair, Bin Laden, etc

http://www.hagmannpi.com/bin%20Laden.htmLink above (less than 1/4 of the way down) contains the full text of bin Laden's latest tape, not just the part addressed to the US as posted here yesterday.

There's a lot to chew on in the part addressed to the Muslim world. For example, most westerners see ongoing conflicts in places as far apart as Asia (the Phillipines) and Europe (Chechnya) as local problems separate from what's happening in Iraq and Afghanistan and what may happen in Iran and Syria. To bin Laden, they're all part of a worldwide struggle that's been going on for more than a thousand years.

If you think referring to US and allied troops as "crusaders" is just name-calling, consider two things related to first World War, which marked the defeat of not only Germany but also the Ottoman Empire (primary center of Sunni Islam):
(1) On entering Jerusalem in 1917, General Allenby announced "Now, the Crusades are over."
(2) Three years later when French troops occupied Damascus, the first thing General Henri Gouraud did was march up to the tomb of Saladin. One version is that he beat on the door with the pommel of his sword and announced "Nous revenons, Saladin!" ("We are back, Saladin!"). Another version is that he kicked the door and exclaimed "Awake Saladin, we have returned. My presence here consecrates the victory of the Cross over the Crescent."

Against this background, it's understandable that some may not dismiss as a simple figure of speech President Bush's description of the war against terrorism as a crusade.

In addition to westerners actually or apparently maintaining or a Crusader attitude, it's important to remember that to bin Laden the world is divided into Dar al-Islam (realm of peace/world of submission) and Dar al-Harb, (realm of war/world of conflict). In Arabic, the idea of making peace with Dar al-Harb literally makes no more sense than talking about a black shade of white. Instead, with a mindset approximating "what's ours is ours, and what's yours is up for grabs," bin Laden sees himself as God's warrior in a conflict that began with Dar al-Islam rapidly expanding until it was halted in the 6th century by Charlemagne's grandfather at the Battle of Tours.
http://campus.northpark.edu/history/WebChron/WestEurope/Tours.CP.html
Still from bin Laden's viewpoint, the conflict between the realms of peace and war ebbed and flowed for hundreds of years with Muslim forces pulling out of various islands in the Mediterranean and successfully liberating Jerusalem from the forces of the 4th and 6th crusades (AD 1187 and 1244). The tide of history began to turn against the realm of peace in 1482 with the loss of Alhambra to the forces of Ferdinand and Isabella. Dar al-Islam's low tide began with the loss of Granada in 1492 and extended until the taking of Nigeria in 1982. To bin Laden, the two decades since then have been the beginning of a new expansion of Dar al-Islam. To him, events like the explosion of a truck bomb in a Marine barracks in Lebanon (1973; US pulls out of Lebanon), the "Blackhawk Down" incident in Mogadishu (1993; US gives up on Somalia), or the attack against the USS Cole (October of 2000) have a lot in common with political victories in Indonesia or Malaysia, ongoing efforts by "Chechan rebels" against Russian rule, and the quiet enforcement of Sharia (Islamic law) in Muslim communities of southern France. What they all show is that Dar al-Islam is on the initiative against Dar-al-Harb.

With the month of Ramadan as a special time for implementing God's will, it's worth noting that the Ramadan about to begin is a special one marked by the rare incidence of both a full lunar eclipse and a full solar eclipse.
http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/03_Terror/030922.Ramadan.days.html

Applicability to gold? Well, gold tends to do well in times of uncertainty and turmoil; and we've been told that the "war on terrorism" will be long and difficult. To me (and perhaps to Jim Sinclair?), that long and difficult period will at least overlap and perhaps define a multi-year secular bull market for the yellow metal.

Caradoc

Clink!

(10/24/2003; 06:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110774)

@ Mr Gresham re Priorities

That story is a definite keeper !
C!

Caradoc

(10/24/2003; 07:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110775)

World Markets React to Latest bin Laden Message:

World Markets React to bin Laden Message:

Note that these links followed bin Laden's previous message:

Nikkei plunges after terror tape-- Thursday, September 11, 2003 Posted: 1007 GMT ( 6:07 PM HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/BUSINESS/09/11/asiastocks.thursclose/index.html

Asian markets close mostly lower--AP[ THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2003 05:05:38 PM ]
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?msid=177331

Somber Start Seen on Wall Street--September 11, 2003
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=10&u=/nm/20030911/bs_nm/markets_...

Stock slump for second day as bin Laden tape sparks jitters--Wed Sep 10, 6:22 PM ET
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=10&u=/afp/20030910/bs_afp/stocks...

******************
The above was lifted from near the bottom of Northeast Intelligence Network's bin Laden website
http://www.hagmannpi.com/bin%20Laden.htm
******************

What's bad for stock markets in general is good for gold as shown by the first 20 minutes of today's trading in New York. Note that the first "heads up" on economic and gold implications of bin Laden's October message came from Jim Sinclair and that the first discussion other than on Sinclair's site was right here on the USAGOLD forum.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

DummyANI

(10/24/2003; 07:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110776)

@Caradoc (10/24/03; 07:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 110775)

I think that there are no relations between bin Laden Message and Nikkei fall.

Because bin Laden Message cannot explain why Nikkei225 was bottomed at April 28,2003, and started a bull-trend at May 23,2003.

I think Nikkei is only manipulated by US-Jp sitting administrations for their re-election purposes.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Buongiorno!

(10/24/2003; 08:24:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110777)

Golden Guano

What a day! Gold up $5 and GAB has digested a whole stack of govt. reports, statistics, and assorted data--and, through some heretofore unknown process of intestinal alchemy, deposited Golden Guano here at the website!

LOVE the BED-spread! What a hoot! Question: is it possible to know the approximate maturity of the compared issues? If similar, OK, but you know that par is a powerful magnet, and a five year bet on Russia is different that a ten or twenty year bet. Same for USA.

Frazzled Freddie found his frumpy frau, Fannie, fingering a page from the 80s S&L book--(where you lend long and borrow short)and said."Fine, Fannie, forget Finance 101, let's go forth!"

Finally, could GAB guano be used to help grow bananas in the basement of the Fed? Mushrooms would probably grow better there--but who ever heard of a Mushroom Republic?

Ciao!
Buongiorno!

steady

(10/24/2003; 08:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110778)

world wide hobbits are chanting!

slowly rythmically harmoniously

ZUBAZOOM ZUBAZOOM ZUBAZOMM ZUBAZOOM!

Buongiorno!

(10/24/2003; 08:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110779)

uh-oh

Mi dispiace--could have sworn GAB did the bed-spread--but it was our good friend NEMO--had not had me coffee yet! Great stuff, anyway!
Ciao
Buongiorno!

Cytek

(10/24/2003; 08:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110780)

FRIDAY NOON COMMERCIAL SLAM

Well what do you guys think, will the commercials try it again when the London market closes. SLAM,SLAM,SLAM....
The last time the POG crossed 390 it was " SELL THE NEWS" this time i think it is "BUY THE FACT" and the fact is that the POG IMO is going to cross $400 this time. I like Gandalf's chart yesterday, this time it's "Too the Moon Ralf".

Cytek

rysa

(10/24/2003; 10:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110781)

The hope of honest money

The hope of an honest money system is to be a cash and carry society with Cash being a fair measure of honest labor and the liquid assets of an individual in the purchase of day to day commodities. Gold as a currency does provide a medium of exchange yet the difficulties of gold are well documented and it is still the anxiety hedge or investment of last recourse. If gold backs national currencies then we enter the new age with the carry overs of poverity, violence, slavery and wars. Gold in itself is an impersonal commodity and can be a measure of perceived wealth and unfortunately it is permanent. I say unfortunately because with an asset that holds value in this manner it leads to greed and misery. The desire for gold overcomes the real aspects of wealth which are labor and production of goods and services.

Davidson's "Sovereign Invidvidual" is one of the most succinct presentations on the collapse of nation states and their money systems from an unfestered viewpoint. Choosing as the point of reference the expatriate who in order to be Sovereign must establish protection and freedom from national governments and still have the ability to engage in commerce Davidson points to a future of strong individuals. The strenght of financially strong individuals conflicts with nation state survival. With the Lords of the Nations now unable to continue the charade of fiat / debt money as the subserviant nations now see the reserve currency (USD) has no value it is analagous to the Emperor's fine rainment being pointed out to be nothing but an illusion. In seeing through the illusion is to see the Emperor as insane or at least unfit for position. The house of cards of Nations now falls in consecutive order in relationship to how much was invested in the lie.

As the rats flee the ship from the point of view of the nation states they become more and more aggressive in taxing and controlling the borders to stop this exodus. The essential wealth of a nation when the economy is being ripped apart at its seams is in the labor and so in the old version of life on this planet "slavery" was wealth. How many slaves are owned and how much production can they accomplish in military, commercial or social actions. Slavery is the theft of real value. Wealth is and always will be production. To take an inert resource and create a value which can be transferred or appreciated.

Gold is not the answer for the world problem of currency. Its very nature as a permanent substance will breed scarcity and violence as during every previous millenium. When the medium of exchange is considered wealth of and in itself the true meaning of wealth and the focus of wealth goes out of context.

I leave you with one letter and allow you to pounder that there must be a way to have a free and abundant economic system based upon assets and in using a temporary medium of exchange (electronic credits for instance). That letter is "Y". I wish you to add one old word to your vocabulary to determine whether or not gold can be the backing of our future economies. That word is "miser". In my viewpoint "misery" will be the result of not going to the next step and solving this economic puzzle.

Our world deserves the establishment of a new economic philosophy as a foundation which has at least a possibility of providing abundance for the entire world where resources are created and appreciated and money becomes a temporary medium of exchange that rests on sound principles of supply and demand. In this way economic circulation is protected and currency will be as clear water flows and renewed through the natural process of exchange.

Thanks...

Great Albino Bat

(10/24/2003; 10:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110782)

A guano prediction....

The GAB feels that the U.S. dollar will lose its reserve currency status:

a. within 24 months - 50% probability
b. within 5 tears - 65% probability
c. within 10 years - 99% probability.

Jot it down somewhere, for future reference.

The GAB

a nation of one

(10/24/2003; 10:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110783)

To rysa (10/24/03; 10:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 110781)

You say that gold "leads to greed and misery." This is a
slight inadequacy of language usage. Gold doesn't lead to
anything. It is simply a material object. What lead to
misery are certain types of human behavior. Greed is a
human behavior, and, as such, is subject to being managed
effectively according to the abilities of the individual.
Therefore greed need not exist. Like a notable ancient
said, "A good man will bring good to what he does; an evil
man will bring evil to what he does." Those who are not
evil tend not to exercise greed (though, certainly, they
may own gold), and, because of this, they also tend not to
suffer from the misery that is sometimes associated with
greed.

There is no evil which gold must necessarily be thought to
be associated with.

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 10:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110784)

THANKS Sir Rysa !!

rysa (10/24/03; 10:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 110781)
===
Please keep on posting your GOLDEN thoughts.
"Y" -- (Why ?) -- Because we need you !
<;-)

a nation of one

(10/24/2003; 10:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110785)

No thanks to a nation of one for pointing out that gold is not evil?

Survivor

(10/24/2003; 10:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110786)

A Whim?

Call this a daydream, but what the heck - read on.

Athletes and rock stars have their gold necklaces - trinkets that work for them.

We need a 'goldbugs necklace'. To the casual observer, it would be just another trinket except for some special features:

- The chain is continuous and can have any number of links (bracelet, anyone?)
- Each link can be decoupled from the next, if you know how.
- Each link is stamped with the weight.
- Each link is stamped with the fineness (which would not be as high as a coin because more strength would be needed.)

In other words, this is a chain of tradable pieces. Some might call it "money".

Have a golden Friday
- Survivor

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 10:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110787)

<;-)

KEEP jumping SPOT !
The P&F Chart's little GREEN "X" for today --- NEEDS $392.+
ALMOST THERE ---
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

Gondolin

(10/24/2003; 10:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110788)

ANOO 110785

A Nation of one.

Thanks for your point of clarity. Greed will manifest itself in many forms over perceived wealth of any description, be that coloured pebbles, shells, quality land, women or gold. Most recently it has manifested itself in paper - and everyone has been printing it, manipulationg it and shifting it in insidious and as we all know here, manipulative ways to ensure that the greed of those who have and desire more of that wealth is satiated. Alas that can never be so they must continue to print more and more paper wealth. The electronic transfer of money has allowed the manipulation and creation of paper wealth on an exponential factor. Therefore electronic transactions cannot be the panicea for the state of things as they are.
True wealth - Gold, land amongst other things cannot just be created out of thin air.

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 10:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110790)

THANKS !!!! to Sir ANOO !

I knew that I could depend on you !
Sorry, to be late with this post -- I was tending SPOT !
<:-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/24/2003; 10:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110791)

Building your base begins with a well-placed phonecall. 1-800-869-5115, info/trading desk = ext. 100

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

a nation of one

(10/24/2003; 10:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110792)

To Gandalf

I shouldn't blame you. Pog is pretty exciting today, isn't it? Makes me feel good to know that I was right to buy it some time ago. You feel the same way, I expect.

silvercollector

(10/24/2003; 11:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 110793)

Spot fails to break Sept. 25 intra-day high

...20 minutes to go.

Great Albino Bat

(10/24/2003; 11:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110794)

A nation of one: The GAB tenders his thanks!

Certainly gold is not evil nor does it necessarily lead to evil. Evil is a result of man's free will. No chain of causation can be established between any material thing and a thing that is spiritual in nature: evil.

As for "rsya"'s opinions: he is evidently new to the Forum, or he would not be stating such obvious falisities.

rysa: Read and learn, and hold your peace for a time, before lecturing this Forum on subjects that have long been put to rest here. "Take a Hike!" - on the Gold Trail, of course. Welcome back, when you are a little wiser.

The GAB

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 11:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110795)

Jheeezzz, Sir Silvercollector !

silvercollector (10/24/03; 11:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 110793)
Spot fails to break Sept. 25 intra-day high
...20 minutes to go.
==
One MIGHT think that the old HIGH could be just a LITTLE RESISTANCE, on a day that SPOT has JUMPED UP over a NUMBER of points !
AFTER all, we must have some FUN, next WEEK !
<;-)

Clink!

(10/24/2003; 11:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110796)

Naughty, naughty, naughty

How many times do we have to tell you gold bulls that we don't want to see more than a six dollar move MAXIMUM to the upside on any given day ? Sheesh, we thought you would have learnt by now, but apparently not, so .....

Great Albino Bat

(10/24/2003; 11:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110797)

My sincere thanks, Sir Gresham for your kind words! Post #110762, yesterday.

I shall toast you next week when I raise my glass of red wine in Vienna!

I just glanced at a very intersting book: "IQ and the Wealth of Nations."

The authors find a correlation between intelligence and wealth. Nations with a high or higher IQ are wealthier than those with a low or lower IQ, is the conclusion the authors reach.

This has a lot to do with gold and/or silver!

IF the authors are correct, the refuge of the unsophisticated and low IQ people of the world, must be something simple. The only sure refuge for these people, is something so simple, and so impossible to manipulate in the long-term, that it guarantees the low IQ people a refuge for their scarce savings. It is the only refuge for their precarious LIBERTY, faced with the schemes of higher IQ people and nations, to deprive them of the little they can gather together in wealth, and reduce them to servitude.

The smart guys can always make out - even in Soviet Russia, they were well-off compared to the lumpenproletariat.

Gold and silver are for the mass of humanity! Not for the elite! And that is why the elite are so skeptical about gold and silver. I find the elite singularly cold to the idea of the importance of gold and silver. Naturally! They can do without it, they are smart.

It's Joe six-pack that requires gold; otherwise, he is going to be enslaved. That is why the challenge that gold is posing to the world monetary system, is so vitally important.

Thanks for reading!

The GAB

rysa

(10/24/2003; 12:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110798)

Gold Sovereigns

I chose this title as it brings the independence of gold to the forefront and I knew the inference that gold = misery would not be taken well. The conclusion is based upon milleniums of struggle between the good and bad over gold money not as the medium of exchange but the indication of wealth. We shall see very shortly as gold is approaching $400.00 whether gold can fulfill the hope of the world or just be another mechanism of slavery.

The fundamentals of world currency transformation have been well delineated in this forum. As one that considers a return to a gold standard an interim reaction to the serious collapse of Fiat/Debt currency and subsequently the nation states the question asked by this occurance is what is next.

Totalitarian Plutocracy is presently occurring with nations being run by multi-nationals for corporate benefit. Worldwide Anarchy is also occurring as the UN and other organizations devolve into hand maidens for the powerful.
Individual Sovereignity is only occurring for those few that are able to siphon off enough assets and freedom from taxation to hide in the disappearing safe zones in the world. So is there safety in the high tech bureaucracy that is becoming our world where money and power are synonymous.

Until a new system can be establish to enable honest economies to survive where the labor of individuals is rewarded rather than punished and people are free to create then our civilization will fail. Perhaps the next inhabitants will have a better idea how to value one item to another without resorting to a course that has failed more than once.

thanks

Aristotle

(10/24/2003; 12:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 110799)

Mending rysa

Hi guy.

I didn't have any problem following along with your morning post, except for the jam you got into at the end of the first paragraph.

You say it's "unfortunate" that Gold is permanent and holds value, thus leading to "greed and misery."

Since it only makes sense that we talk about Gold as our basis for savings, from that angle is it possible that you've failed to consider how unfortunate the opposite would be? That is to say, it would be more unfortunate if this Asset were NOT permanent and did NOT hold its value, because an asset that loses value in this manner leads to financial privation, insecurity and paranoia.

Let's think about that. Would you rather live in a world populated by people reduced to poverty and paranoia?

On the element of greed, Sir Nation of One offered a valuable perspective on human nature, so I won't touch on that any further except to point out that greed is a loose term that shouldn't be applied to a natural desire or pursuit for security.

Beyond that one albeit important quibble with your presentation, let me clearly encourage you to keep pursing and sharing your monetary thoughts. Atta-boy!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

contrarian

(10/24/2003; 12:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110800)

the finale

Well, they came in swingin in the last hour, but all they could muster was to push it down about a dollar!

specie-man

(10/24/2003; 12:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110801)

GAB, Middle East, Religous States

The GAB brings up "interesting" points about Israel's ambitions. I don't see Israel as quite the middle east villan that the GAB makes them out to be. But they aren't entirely innocent either.

The reason that the middle east and Israel have so many problems and conflicts is that they are all religous states. Israel is a religous state, just like Iran. Sure, there are more freedoms in Israel than Iran. But no one could ever hold a higher office in the Israeli govenment if they weren't Jewish. That is my definition of a religous state - if you have to be of a certain faith to hold a higher office, then it is a religous state.

Iran and other Islamic middle eastern countries (and their peoples) have been severely held back by the religous nature of their states.

The more a government is dominated by a religion, the more problems the state will have. An exception might be the former Soviet Union, but one could argue that in that instance, the "state" WAS the (mandated) "religion".

I wholeheartedly agree that nations with smarter people are wealthier. In a way, that is just a law of nature. I would also argue that there is a strong correlation between wealthier nations and low government corruption. Rampant government corruption can lead a country to the poor house (is that where we are headed ?), or prevent it from ever gaining economically.

The more the US political scene is dominated by religion (Christian, Jewish, or whatever), the more problems we will have.

The separation of church and state demands (deserves) eternal vigilance.

It is interesting, though, that just about all of the world's religions have some fondness for gold. Gold is sort of a religious artifact/symbol, it seems.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/24/2003; 12:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110802)

Page Update!

specie-man

(10/24/2003; 12:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110803)

rysa, gold independence

rysa wrote:
"I chose this title as it brings the independence of gold to the forefront and I knew the inference that gold = misery would not be taken well. The conclusion is based upon milleniums of struggle between the good and bad over gold money not as the medium of exchange but the indication of wealth. We shall see very shortly as gold is approaching $400.00 whether gold can fulfill the hope of the world or just be another mechanism of slavery."

You said ' "the" conclusion '. That is innacurate. If you said ' "your" conclusion ', that would be accurate. I do not agree with your conclusion. As long as a necessary resource is scarce, humans will fight over it. That was true under the gold standards. It is true under fiat paper money economies. It always has been, is, and will always be the case that Man will fight for things.

I don't see the world "hoping" for gold to fulfill anything. I for one am interested in gold because it is a safe haven. I don't really hope for it to do anything. I expect it to maintain it's value (wealth) in a calm manner while world economies are ravaged by storms. I do not expect or hope for any return to a gold standard.

If anything is responsible for modern day "slavery", it isn't gold. In reality, it is the policies of the IMF, world bank, etc. that have effectively held down 3rd world "commodity" countries. That, in effect, has perpetuated poverty in those nations so that rich nations can get cheap commodities. That is a form of manipulation, if not slavery.

Why does the IMF forbid/deter debtor nations from participating in gold transactions ? Because they don't want those nations to be free/independent.

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 13:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 110804)

COMEX GOLD data UPDATE !! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GC

Dec 03 COMEX GOLD Contract Data
10/17/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8 OI 175,879
10/24/03 Open $385.8 HIGH $393.0 low $384.3 SETTLE $389.2 CHANGE +$4.2
===
ITEMS to note: The OI continues to INCREASE (even on a down day like yesterday) AND today's HIGH gives ONE MORE DAILY little GREEN "X" to the forthcoming P&F Chart !
<;-)

Aristotle

(10/24/2003; 13:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110805)

specie-man, maybe my read on one account or the other is wrong...

...but I don't think rysa is saying what you think he's saying.

Dig deeper, and let the Truth be uncovered.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

CoBra(too)

(10/24/2003; 13:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110806)

@ CM

Re your test ... have written back several times and the stuff just disappeared into cyberspace ...

No idea, what's going on - just wanted to let you know that the Mulder's have been bringing their job to conclusion and will be official next week.

Hoping, that MK forgives this off topic post as I didn#t figure out an alternative to communicate. cb2

See you soon!

specie-man

(10/24/2003; 13:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110807)

rysa, gold independence

Maybe I'm not interpreting rysa's post the way it was intended.

The lust for power/wealth/gold can be considered in some cases as evil. But it is the "lust" part, not the "gold" part, that is evil.

Cavan Man

(10/24/2003; 14:07:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110808)

Hello CB2

Got you message. Seems to me email hasn't been working 100% sine the latest viris attacks. We have probelms with customers and internally. Sounds good and see you for a cocktail or (too) on Thursday afternoon. Best...CM

Solomon Weaver

(10/24/2003; 14:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110809)

Historical Events around the Great Depression

http://www.amatecon.com/gd/gdtimeline.htmlFor those of you interested in the historical events leading up to the Depression, I very accidentally fumbled upon this site today.....

One very interesting element is that they refer to important books published at the time....

Kudos to "Ross" who appears to run the site.

Poor old Solomon

Boilermaker

(10/24/2003; 14:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110810)

GAB

Enjoy your trip to Vienna and, if you have the desire and the the opportunity, take in a concert by the Cleveland Orchestra who will be performing there next week.
"On Tour From October 25 through November 1, The Cleveland Orchestra and Franz Welser-M�st will take up residence in Vienna."

This is one of the world's finest orchestras and one that I have had the pleasure of hearing many times.

It just occurred to me that perhaps you are with the Orchestra. Whatever, enjoy your trip.

We will look after the gold market while you are away my friend.

Boilermaker

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 14:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110811)

WOWSERS -- Did you hear the TRUMPETS sound at the 91.01 US$ level ?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0A CHARGE to the RESCUE !!
NOW whom do you think did THAT !
Looks to this Ol'e Wiz just like the Japanese do -- throwing more paper $ into the fire !
The 91.01 was the low for this week --- want to bet that it is still standing by next weekend ?
NAW -- you all know better than that !
<;-)

Aristotle

(10/24/2003; 15:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110812)

specie-man, no, not the power part, I meant the other stuff... the monetary stuff

Again, unless I'm mistaken, I think rysa is working his way 'round to my theme that the Property which is Gold should not be mired in the ownership ambiguity of paper/digital affairs.

Would that Gold's role in our play be cast only thus --
from hand to hand, ore extraction to Ownership, and so on down the ages.

It should be sooooooooooo simple, yet sadly, somehow it is not so for a great many folks.

Ore extraction to Ownership.

Repeat after me.

"From ore extraction to Ownership, and nothing else in between."

Gold. From mine to "Mine!" and nothing else in between. --- Aristotle

Solomon Weaver

(10/24/2003; 15:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110813)

Gold and Sovereign Individuals

rysa (10/24/03; 10:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 110781)
The hope of honest money....
Davidson's "Sovereign Invidvidual" is one of the most succinct presentations on the collapse of nation states and their money systems from an unfestered viewpoint.

. . . . . . . .

Dear rysa...I saw your post this morning....and had a few vidvid (sic see your title above)thoughts....also I would prefer to view Davidson's (and Lord Mogg's) viewpoints as being somewhat "unfettered"...but given the state of festering opinions about economics and politics rampant today, I will also agree with your Freudian slip.

You must please pardon me for accuracy today, as it has been about 5 years since I have read "The Sovereign Individual" and I am working strictly from memory, but what I remember most is that although I was emotionally not in agreement with their analysis, I found it very compelling, and consider that book to be one of the critical milestone events in my life, respective to macroeconomic/politic education. I therefore find it very inspiring to have you mention this interesting book, and I encourage any of the knights and ladies assembled here to procure a copy for fireside reading this winter.

Perhaps the reason I feel compelled to make a note now, is that your post of this morning seemed a bit downhearted regarding gold, as you think it (gold) elicits greed and misery. I don't believe that opinion would have been derived from the "Sovereign Individual", as I recall that the authors even predicted the return to a gold standard by virtue of the emergence of a new financial network which would resort to electronic transactions in gold, and that this financial network would not be regulated by any nation.

I am now in the midst of reading "The Dollar Crisis: .." by Duncan, and I note that in his analysis, the emergence of the American economic engine, decoupled from golden chains, and allowed to become the new "dollar standard", does seem to have allowed a very strong surge in economic activity over the last century, and to any observer who has travelled the world (or reads a lot of National Geographic)it is pretty clear that the entire world, under the King Dollar (Doug Noland) has at least had a "chance" to prosper....(reducing misery). One should be careful, however, in reasoning that a return to a gold based standard would return the world to conditions of misery found before the dollar standard.

What has been interesting in the evolution of thought on this site over the years, is the recognition of the concept of "freegold", i.e. gold allowed to trade as a financial commodity money against the fiats in all nations. Some of us here, will remember the "heady days" when Another and FOA were amongst us, and knights like Aristotle had long posts on the perfect monetary system (which was not gold, if I remember). One may now read the thoughts of Another, and the comments of Trail Guide in the Archives, but it is not as easy to capture the entire spirit of the "much discussion" which always followed those postings.

I am actually rather a simpleton, so my recollections of all those discussions come down to the fact that the fiats we all work for and spend are like a big bag of promises to eachother, and that over time, even the best of them tend to inflate the promises in a pyramiding fashion, such that the fiats do NOT typically serve as a store of value (savings). And for me, the idea of "freegold" says that gold should represent a liquid pool of "promises which cannot be broken" in which one may set aside true personal reserves. I speak for Davidson and Mogg in thinking that such a "freegold" is actually the hallmark of Sovereign Individuals.

At the risk of making this a long post, let me note further a few of my recollections from "Sovereign Individual":

MEGAPOLITICAL EVENTS - Approximately every 500 years, the Occidental world has experienced a very large and rapid change in dominant power structures, facilitated by a specific(technology driven)event which reached far beyond the "politics" of any state or region. Around 1000 A.D., the introduction of gunpowder led to the loss of strategic value in "knighthood (the power of the sword), the demise of the Christian Knight swearing Chivalry to Lord (God) and lord (patron). The last one was the introduction of the printing press, which allowed private disemination of knowledge (taking away a knowledge monopoly from the Church)...and the most recent one we are now in is the instant global communication system (as embodied by the internet), which allows small elite teams of thinkers/actors to outmaneuver large bodies run by committees.

THE EPHEMIRAL NATION STATE - As patriotic as we all may be, the concept of the Nation State Sovereign was the "late-stage" outcome of the effect which the two former megapolitical events had on the organisation of human politic, in which power accrued to political entities which were most successful at assembling the largest armies (supported by workforces), and commanding the most natural resources. As the printing press created for the first time the opportunity to replace related dialects with an official National Language, while the intelligensia relied on the same printing presses and the Latin language (as a harmonizer), over several centuries Europe became a continent dominated by multiple Sovereign States. These Nations have reigned over the most recent 200-250 years, a period defined by immense change and progress, but now, their demise is predicted, based on the reversal of economy of scale now embodied in the new megapolitical trend seen in the new paradigm of global communications.

The demise of the Nation State will oneday be seen to have started in the 20th century, as two great wars between such nations created immense amounts of human suffering, as the scales and power of warefare reached proportions far above the scale of the soldier. The atomic bomb was not the end of the war with Japan, it was the beginning of the end for escalation of destruction as the primary method of war (and power).

THE SCALE OF ECONOMIC RETURNS ON VIOLENCE - Although as a modern man of goodwill, I struggled with this, the authors believe that one must consider the scale at which the use of violence can be cost effective. Much of what was written in that book accurately predicts (in scope) the emergence of very powerful underworld crime (mafia) as well as the effective use of "terrorism" (Bin Laden may think he is an Arab hero, but he is just a lucky opportunist).

THE TRAGIC DEMISE OF USA (and all nation states) - Having been the most successful of all Nation States (and never having our national identity destroyed), the book predicts that America will be the last Nation to fall back to the new scale of efficiency as predicated on the use of modern telecommunications. Although the recent and unprecedented speed with which America was able to defeat and occupy Irag may SEEM to contradict this, the fact that America by an order of magnitude, is the only Nation with an Army capable of this immense "tactical feat", and the inadequacy of that same army to fully defend itself against a "ragtag" minority of devoted small scale terrorists in Bagdad, are indicative of the new order of outcomes, predicated by the new economies of violence at small and large scale. America's billions spent on the large outcome will someday soon be seen to be wasted in the same way the WWII wasted much resources.

THE REMOVAL FROM TYRANNY OF PLACE - With the Internet and Global Banking, it is now possible for the first time in human history, to instantly remove (move) large sums of capital from a "jurisdiction" of trouble or violent confiscation, to a "protected jurisdiction" as well as to have "body and family" living in one "jurisdiction", while one's capital investments work in another very distant place. They predict that those who are already wealthy, and more importantly, those who are able to use intelligence to move or create new wealth (knowledge workers) will not allow themselves to contribute to, or live in "juridictions" which are too taxing of their personal or financial freedom.

THE RECRUITMENT OF TALENT - They predict that certain cities within nations, or even certain small places like island nations, will begin to market themselves as "attractive jurisdictions". The trend has already been visible some years in the creation of tax havens, but the authors anticipate those (and many more such new) havens as attracting the "best minds" to come and work and live.

There are many other very interesting themes woven together in the book....and time and space now closes may thoughts to you friends at the table today.

Poor old Solomon

misetich

(10/24/2003; 16:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110814)

The Cyclical-Structural Tradeoff

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031024-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

Insofar as America's structural problems are concerned, I worry most about record lows in domestic saving -- namely, a US net national saving rate that fell to 0.5% of GNP in 2Q03. Related to that are my concerns over America's reckless fiscal policy adventures.
......................
America's net private saving rate averaged around 8.5% in the late 1960s, more than double the current 4% rate. This makes today's US economy far more dependent on foreign saving to finance economic growth than was the case 35 years ago. And that virtually guarantees far more serious problems with the US current-account and trade deficits -- to say nothing of the dollar-related vulnerabilities associated with such imbalances.
.................

The vigor of the recent data flow may be exaggerating the possibility of a meaningful shift in the balance between these two sets of forces. If the cyclical revival turns out to have been as temporary as I suspect, the world may well have to come to grips with another growth scare in early 2004. Frothy financial markets are leaning precisely the other way.
***************
Misetich

US savings rate negative in quarters to come - dependency on foreigners increases multifold

With Asia's current mammoth build up US $ reserves the "Big Float" will be reaching staggering proportions

Asia will be forced to diversify their portfolio away from US $

Alternatives?

Physical Gold ! and Euros

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

CoBra(too)

(10/24/2003; 17:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110815)

What else is not Rigged?

Reading tonight's MIDAS, by Bill Murphy I must admit, the man is right.
Here it is in his words:
"Hard to say which is more obvious these days, the gold rig or the stock prop? What I can say is free markets do not do the same thing over and over. Not for weeks and months at a time. This is an abomination which will end badly".

For how long will the players - and they are the international players, paying for the US deficits by the day to the tune of almost 2 Billion dollars - keep up the charade, before pulling in their horns? No one knows, and it's not important.

The only thing of importance is that a current account deficit of over 5% by "any" nation - always led to ultimate disaster. The according deficits of the US just spell immediate disaster.

Seignorage of a tumbling reserve currency, military super power status and technological supremacy may only enhance the ultimate fate.

As the rest of the world will also not forever look at an essentially broke and economically crippled US as a locomotive for new expansion, the overused US reserve dollar will probably not survive the challenge much longer.

A topic, which I'll never again bring up with my 85 year old uncle, who survived Stalingrad and much more...and never has seen a better currency as the greenback! ... Ask any Russian, as up to a few years it was their currency!

My, times are a'canchin' - rapidly - Russians take Rubles, preferably gold Rubles and �'s, if it has to be. Though, a gold Zcernowetz would be a real bonus - spassiva!

... Still, I feel to owe it to my kids and grandkids to be honest about my findings. Get out of any fiat and get hold of gold, the only value protecting your wealth! cb2

Cor Tauri

(10/24/2003; 17:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110816)

Survivor: the chain

Hi,
This idea of a necklace for goldbugs is ever so slightly off topic, I think. However, I appreciate your post more than you can know. Your idea has great merit. Probably the original construction of gold neckalces was motivated by what I preceive to be your motivations regarding the goldbug necklace. In other words whoever first made chain out of gold was thinking the same thing you are thinking.

Some points: It should not be stamped with the weight. There would be little room for stamping on links, and that will be used up as I will explain. Whoever would accept links of such a chain would want to weigh them at the time regardless of any stamp of weight. "Each link would be stamped with the fineness." Yes, ok, but under US law and most other quality marking law, if a maker stamps the fineness they also have to stamp their makers mark. In other words if I stamp an item 22k, thats all very nice, but the issue is WHO claims it is 22k, next to the 22k stamp I would be required to stamp my name. I have both stamps as presumably nearly anyone who could make such a chain. But there is not a lot of room on a link of gold. In Asia, they apparently do not so mark each link. It is presumed to be a fineness that is "standard" for "monetary" chains in the locality where the chain is made. For instance in India, it would be presumed to be 22k and in Thailand it would be presumed to be 24k. In reality the gold in Thai chains is probably more like 23k and in India from 22k on down.

That brings me to another point. There is a very widespread misconception about gold being soft. Gold is ductile, I can hit it with my hammer and it will move. Soft yes, but fragile? No. A chain can certainly be constructed of 24k gold. According to the experts* in such things, and I agree with them, fine gold and fine silver are too soft to hold a surface finish. That is if I bring my .999 silver ring to a very high polish, the polish will soon be scratched and appear terrible. The surface can be given a matte finish, by brushing, and this surface will endure better, but in general the metals are to soft to hold their surface finish. 14K and .Stg will hold a polish much longer.

However the actual weight of a 24k gold chain and a 14k gold chain will over time show another way of saying the same thing. The 14k will tend to grind away while the 24k will simply bend stretch and get mashed down. Over enough time the 14k will wear away slightly, while the 24k will retain nearly all of it's weight. The Asian jewelers seem to understand this more so than western, or at least their respective clients do.

I need to wrap this up, I might well go on and on.
I would suggest that the links could easily be detachable, there are a number of chains, weaves, and methods to do this. The simplest might be single loop in loop chain.
I would suggest that while the entire piece would have a quality mark and makers mark, that marking individual links would be somewhat redundant. Whoever accepted such links would make a judgement on weight and fineness regardless of any such markings. Links that were fused would be seen to be very high karat gold, links that were soldered would be seen to be possibly a much lower karat substance.
If you live in the US, I would submit that a large change in understanding and awareness would have to happen before the utility of such a chain would be evident. However, I suspect that such a shift could happen very quickly once it begins.
Finally, if you desire such a chain now, there are a number of Asian jewelers that make them. There was a post a very long time ago from someone either in or from Thailand about such chains. You might want to shop the internet for an Asian jeweler in your area, and explain that you want a chain that has links that can be removed one by one.

Lastly, really this time, understand there is not a market for such chains in the US at this time. When that market appears, I assure you that every metals artist will produce them. The smaller artists will be the quickest. I would need to buy a crucible for less than $20 and would be ready in a few days. That market will appear, and when it does, I will have a new occupation.

*re:durabiltiy vs.softness:Charles Lewton-Brain, and Dr. Aspler discussed this briefly on Orchid. For any jewelers that might take exception, I would love to learn more but there, not here.

The Invisible Hand

(10/24/2003; 17:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110817)

Alan Greenspan, come home!

http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art433Open letter to Alan Greenspan by George F. Smith

SNIPS:
Mr. Greenspan, you spoke the truth when you wrote this article (Gold and Economic Freedom), and I ask you to speak it again. It's not too late. No one knows better than you how the Federal Reserve has helped fund the country's dubious wars and countless wasteful government programs, how it's wrecking our money, our savings, and our future.As Chairman of the Fed, you command the world's attention.
...
Mr. Greenspan, now you have the power to make people pay attention. Please stand by your article, and stand up for gold.

Aristotle

(10/24/2003; 18:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110818)

a metaphor for a day ahead

(A special passage especially for my fatigued friend, Belgian.)

"Look at that! It's magnificent! Like nothing I've ever seen!"
This was the fourth person in the past ten minutes to tug for attention,
as though it were a programmed response to be activated somehow by my coat sleeves.
Eyes still downward, I smiled at such trivia as I continued unabated in my pace,
grateful for the gathering leaves of autumn putting new perspective over summer's stale litter.
Sharing the tuggers' exuberance shopkeepers were joining their prospective patrons;
upon the sidewalk they were joyous, pointing skyward together with faces of wonderment.
To a man, none of them knew the reasons how or why,
but to a man, they all felt a fresh improvement,
as if a miraculous renewal had been visited upon something once very old and familiar.
I smiled again, sensing their mirth, but minding myself only of the leaves and litter passing beneath my shuffling shoes.
It was the Sun, of course, that held them in amaze.
Yet for me this was no sudden or unexpected novelty, stopping traffic as it did on the crowded streets behind.
It was simply the Sun, seen as the Sun should be --
something I've learned under labor of long years while weaving my weak shadow upon the world.
This was the bright Sun of ANOTHER day.
And by all accounting, it was good beyond measure.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Clink!

(10/24/2003; 18:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110820)

How does Florida intend to guarantee the creation of 545 jobs ?

http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/sptimes/index.html?ts=1067041428By spending $500M of taxpayer money, of course. While most of the US has been looking at the Schiavo situation for its daily dose of Florida news, I have been following this little jaw-dropper for the last couple of weeks. The gist is that the Scripps Institute, a private non-profit medical research company will, if all goes through, be offered not the usual incentives to get them to expand from California such as tax breaks for a few years, but the land, buildings, equipment and salaries for their staff for eight years. One of the few guarantees is that they will create 545 jobs.
The gall of the politicians, who kept this secret until just two weeks before a special sitting, is amazing. Why the secrecy ? Were they afraid that more time might give an opportunity for opposition or debate ? Why the largesse ? Could it be that it would look good for the Governor to woo such a prestigeous company to the state which determined (or not, if you prefer to believe Greg Palast) his big brother's last presidential campaign ? Nah, I'm just way too cynical.
C!

1340cc

(10/24/2003; 20:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110821)

Wearable Gold vs. The Real Deal

Ah, Dear Cor Tauri, I disagree. It is obvious you have never worked in a jewelry store. I had several people bring in 24 k. chains, rings, earrings etc. to be repaired. 24k (22 or 23) wears away very quickly. The nickel and other metals added to gold give it strength. Maybe not beauty but durability, to be used wearing for sure.

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 20:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110822)

"Look at that! It's magnificent! Like nothing I've ever seen!" ==== <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GTHERE it is !
The latest little GREEN "X" !!
The next one will give us a new "ALERT" !!!
"To the MOON, Alice" !!!!
Let us see that on Monday !!!!!
$396.+ $396.+ $396.+ !!!!!!
Jump SPOT, JUMP
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/24/2003; 20:26:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110823)

Ah, Dear Cor Tauri --

The Thai Gold jewelry STANDARD is 0.965 and will be stamped one place on each whole item. WHEREAS the STANDARD is called "965", some items, (mostly for "farangs") are made of "pure gold" which is USUALLY 0.995 Thai Gold is sold by the weight of a "Baht" which is slightly less than a half ounce. The gold pieces are priced in Thai Baht per Baht of gold. The manufacturing cost of Thai jewelry is a VERY small additional cost to that of the SPOT Bullion price. (as the craftsmans wages are commonly less than fify cents per hour for the ten hour day, six days a week !
I hope that this helps your planning for the "CHAIN" !
I have a number of chains of different designs and my "BOSS" wears a six baht thirty-six inch square woven link(appropiate) rope. <;-)

HINT: I may be seeing things in my NEWLY IMPORTED crystal ball, BUT, I think that a USAGOLD webpage will be forthcoming soon, (just in time for Xmas) with all sorts of CHAINS and things for the "BOSSES" and Knights of the TABLEROUND !

OOPS -- was that a Castle secret, Sir MK ?
<;-)

Cytek

(10/24/2003; 20:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110824)

The FED wants the DOW to fall

Read this on Papluva's site:

Mike Bolser, who has been interviewed on the FS News Hour show, has been monitoring the Federal Reserve funding for market interventions. Here are his comments today:

Quote:The Fed wants the DOW to fall. Don't fight the Fed.

Friday will be a bad day for the DOW as I believe the Fed will add only about $4Billion [If history is any judge as it was today] which would drain $4 Billion more from the repo pool dropping it to the very low $21Billion range. Far too little to manage both the Fed's currency support efforts and the DOW.

These repo pool rigging methods are surely known to certain overseas trading houses in addition to the Fed's primary Wall Street dealers so It will start bad in Europe Friday and stay bad in the US. Monday will be worse.

Cytek

Keep adding that yellow stuff, and a little of that canned stuff, fire wood for the cold winter coming and some extra water. Just in case that eletrical grid goes down again this winter. I hope that east coast power outage this summer woke up some people, we might have to get use to things like that in the future. BTW, i still believe that Gold Bugs are the smartest.

Agingfast

(10/24/2003; 21:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110825)

Re: The FED wants the DOW to fall.

Very amusing theory. However, any "analysis" of the repurchase agreements on the Fed's weekly balance sheet should start with the fluctuations tied to the two-week settlement periods. For example, on the last six dates that fell on the end of the two-week periods, 8/6, 8/20, 9/3, 9/17, 10/1 and 10/15, repos totaled (in $ billions) 22.5, 34.1, 34.4, 27.9, 32.1 and 26.4. But for the interim weeks, 8/13, 8/27, 9/10, 9/24, 10/8 and 10/22, repos totaled only 17.7 (down 4.8 for the week), 24.6 (down 9.5), 22.8 (down 11.6), 22.3 (down 5.6), 19.3 (down 12.8) and 24.6 (down 1.8). Presumably the theory "proves" that the Fed wants the DOW to decline on alternate weeks.

Dollar Bill

(10/24/2003; 21:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110826)

'/ '

Good one Mr Gresham.

Dollar Bill

(10/24/2003; 21:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110827)

=..=

October 22 � Bloomberg: "China raised almost $1.5 billion in its first overseas bond sale in two years, luring investors with the promise of the world's fastest-growing major economy and record foreign currency reserves. China sold $1 billion of 10-year dollar bonds at a yield of 53 basis points more than U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity, lower than the earlier-planned 55� "

October 24 � The Asian Wall Street Journal (Peter Wonacott): "From steak to iron ore to cotton to diamonds, China's rising urban incomes and changing consumer tastes are reshaping the world's commodity markets. The country's emergence as a major importer of raw materials is driving global prices higher and catching some suppliers flat-footed� �China has sucked the cupboard bare of raw materials,� says Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities research at Macquarie Bank Ltd�. And because of its fast growth, Mr. Lennon cautions, China �is starting to place severe strains on the global raw-materials supply chain.� Already, prices of many natural resources and metals are surging. In the past year and a half, the cost of alumina, used to make aluminum, and nickel, which is used to make standard steel, has doubled, according to metals traders and analysts. World-wide metal inventories are at their lowest level ever, because big metal suppliers were reducing their capacity due to the economic slowdown in the U.S., Japan and Europe. But now, these companies are rushing to fill China's voracious needs. Global shipping-freight rates have skyrocketed in response to Chinese demand. China's auto and construction craze is underpinning the voracious global metals buying. Aside from iron ore, the country is so starved for copper that Chinese companies are importing French francs and melting them down, according to a Beijing official�"

Mr Gresham

(10/24/2003; 22:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110828)

GAB & Solomon

GAB: I second Boilermaker's wishes, and envy your visit to Vienna, since mine was only a brisk walk between train stations while getting from Munich to Moscow. Some day, some day...

Solomon: Good to find you here. An excellent summation from memory of Davidson, and I got through more of the book today, and it stays at the top of my reading pile, one of 'em anyway. He does emphasize gold as the backing for an e-currency, and I imagine many of us could trust such a "bank" for our small transactions. And this IS the introduction to many of the idea of the e-gold as currency, rather than as wealth asset.

I think it is our Forum starting with FOA that does much to educate people to that difference in role: transaction currency vs. wealth holding. And now everyone under the Sun is talking about the USD's discrepancies in that division of tasks, aren't they?

Throughout the centuries, successful businessmen have endowed libraries and universities to act upon their love of learning. I see MK now as the eloquent Dean of such an endowed Institute, which encourages Self-Educators to come forward, and advance ACCESSIBLE learning in a most vital and neglected area. The topic -- Gold -- provides a vehicle for such enthusiastic participation, but I could imagine other topics doing so, as they are called forth by events. I think the Lurkers who speak up occasionally confirm that we have all been fortunate to land at a Good Place.

Think of those who have acted, at least temporarily, as the Good Professors of that Institute, and have retired as Emeriti never to be forgotten by those of us who interacted daily, and who inspired us to carry thoughts with us through days' activities, until we could get back to "class" and interact some more.

Again I say, MK has founded, funded, and nurtured a model site for Internet lifelong education that gives me some hope for a renewal of liberties in our nation, and for the world. An Alexandrian Library that cannot be burned by vandals. And a form of Wealth in addition to the topic of our discussions.

And remember, lifelong learning = forever young.

GratefulForGold

(10/25/2003; 00:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110829)

Sir GAB @ msg.#110797

!
I agree that simplicity is necessary and vital to something's universal acceptance/usage. However, your "Low IQ = buy gold (and silver)" theory somewhat baffles me. Hmmmm. Granted, I do not ponder some things long enough to truly, deeply understand them.

I DO appreciate the thrust and tenor of the idea (equality for the masses?). However, as an American, it seems that the "manifestation" falls short of the "concept."

"Refuge" implies safety, a safe harbour. Am I to assume that the "refuge" of gold and silver will be available to all the Low IQ people who finally wake up and discern its value? That gold and silver will be there for each to buy their way out of slavery? (Seems contrary to Another/FOA's theses). I fear that the "simple" commodity that the masses may seek may be food or water or energy. I fear they may not have the time/opportunity/resources to seek much else!

I, personally, do not believe the elite are "singularly cold to the idea of the importance of gold and silver." Lip service only. Yes, it is better for the elite that gold and silver remain browbeaten and considered a "barbarous relic." That frees the elite to use their resources (fiat, primarily) in gobbling up most of the rest of the world's resources (other minerals, water, land, infrastructure, etc.). They haven't had to bother spending their power/resources on gold and silver because nobody wanted it! But, with the rising appreciation of gold and silver, I would bet that many of those "High IQ" people are the first on board the train! Professionally, they may still function to beat down gold and silver (it's their job to do so, to protect the fiat empire). But, personally, I suspect a GREAT number of them are quietly accumulating gold and silver for their own, personal protection! Yes, they will render much lip service to denigrating gold and silver (after all, their JOBS depend on it!), but what they do in their private lives (like sex) is often contrary to what they project to the public.

I would LOVE it if gold were for mass humanity and not the elite. That would seem to contradict some history. Maybe the West can (quickly) follow the East and treasure individual gold ownership (but, we don't have the "history" for it). It would be incredibly profound if NOW were the time in this planet's evolution for such a gigantic change!

Afterthought: Maybe "simpliciy" of character is confused with a Low IQ. High IQ can also exist simply but it seems to gravitate towards those "schemes" of our financial wizards (the derivatives kings, for example) and our political power mongers. Rather than intelligence being the primary factor, I am beginning to believe that "God's hand" (for lack of a better phrase) just may be an element in the current PM scenario. Maybe the Internet is also part of "God's hand" at work. If "mass humanity" ever stood a chance of equalizing itself, and if gold and silver continue in their historic functions (as they appear to be), then the "Low IQ" premise has a chance. More information, freely available. However, the apparently Lower IQ persons in the US seem to be watching "Survivor" on TV, rather than learning HOW to survive!

But, for all those like me, who exist somewhere in between the Low and High IQs -- this has been a profound and life-changing opportunity! Maybe the "middle class" (middle IQs?) here in the US will have the opportunity to save ourselves, unlike our cousins in Argentina.

Thanks for posting your thoughts on the book you "glanced at," GAB. I'm sure my thoughts are not too well thought out (late night and some fine wine), but maybe clarity will come with the dawn! (Or, maybe not!)

Lady GFG

Belgian

(10/25/2003; 01:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110830)

@ ARISTOTLE

No fatique this time, Sir...but deep disappointment about the reactions (representative ones) on the "positive" ideas about * FREE GOLD * and a * FREE GOLD MARKET * !

But yesterday, I think of having understood, the GENERAL A.A.- rationale behind the "ANTI"- Free Gold thinking ...CNBC, on most of Euroland's TV cable, took some time and great efforts to "ridicule" (insult) the euro, blatantly and publicly. The euro is a stash of trash with a bunch of socialist, trying to defend it...??? Wowwwoww.

I'll take a week off (in Luxembourg) to study the history of "monetary system" and "monetary order"..."Rules of the Gold Exchange Sandard" and Pierre Werner of Luxembourgs's thoughts.

The creation of Inernational reserves...
The (un)stability of the unanchored dollar-standard...
Determinations of the world's rate of monetary expansion...
Balance (equilibriums) of payments deficits...
Monetary wars...
Price stability...
Exchange Rate Policies...
Importation, exportation of inflations...
Gold pools...

Or in much simplier words...the chances of FREE GOLD IN A FREE GOLD MARKET.

All the best to you, dearest Ari and Thank You. B.

Aristotle

(10/25/2003; 01:59:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110831)

Ahhhhhh Belgian, but you see....

Fatigue is nourished upon disappointments.

And being thus well fed on my side of the world, I'm off to bed! Sooooo, dear friend, the world is in your hands for the next half turn.

:-D

Gold. From mine to Mine. Or yours. As it should be. --- Ari

The Invisible Hand

(10/25/2003; 02:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110832)

Saturdays ...

Saturdays used to be the day FOA posted (check the goldtrail dates).
FOA told us he would come back just before a FREE GOLD MARKET would materialise.
FOA hasn't come back yet. This probably explains why our Wizard is still enjoining the yellow to jump and not to FLY.

Belgian

(10/25/2003; 03:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110833)

TIH/Ari

A/FOA might elaborate on Gold-chapter II, if and when, the fait accompli of Free Physical Gold, allows it to * FLY * from hand to hand, without burning-wounds . So far, Gold has indeed, TIH, been degradated, to a vulgar (vulgarized) jumping hot patato. Worse...many efforts were (are) undertaken to take even the heat out of the patato...
Because...
Real Free Gold is indeed, very provocative in so many aspects. Explains a lot if not everything ! But this should NOT be the case, imvho, here on this outstanding forum and Host, where we, the shrimps, gather around the idea of how to make the world FREE... more FREE, peacefull and just, again.

LET GOLD *LIVE* AND BE EXCHANGED FREELY ! An honorable message, as far as it is mine opinion. And worth to be discussed between, Freedom-loving, Americans and Eurolanders .

misetich

(10/25/2003; 05:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110834)

More red ink forecast for states in coming year

http://www.stateline.org/stateline/?pa=story&sa=showStoryInfo&id=331306Snip:

State governments are projecting a collective deficit of at least $32 billion next year, which is less than half as much as this year's aggregate red ink, according to a new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington, D.C., think tank which researches policies that affect low-income people.
..................
She said next year's budget problems are due mostly to state lawmakers' heavy reliance on one-time fixes to balance their budgets over the past few years.

These one-time fixes include the $20 billion that moderate members of Congress secured for states in return for backing President George W. Bush's $350 billion tax cut program. The temporary fixes also include deferred pay raises for state employees, money from the 1998 legal settlement with tobacco companies, and accounting tricks that shift revenues from one year to another.
**************
Misetich

Deficits growing at all levels. Accounting tricks, deferrals, etc. are pushing the problemms forward - Pension plans are mostly underfunded and tied to the SM and Bond market - both in bubble territory.

The farm has been bet on the "magical economic recovery" - however thus far more jobs are being lost than being created

We haven't heard the last of States growing deficit problems

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1

(10/25/2003; 06:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110835)

Free Gold!

The idea of "free gold", or gold being allowed totrade freely, is not the "saviour" for the masses, or the poor and uneducated.

Yes, it will help rid the system of manipulation and, in terms of all things financial, should make things relatively simple and easy to understand.

However, one still has to be able to legally acquire it, and this means that the educated, the wise, the frugal and the level-headed etc. will still have advantages over the illiterate, the stupid, the spendthrifts and the irrational etc.

turkey hunter

(10/25/2003; 07:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110836)

Love euro, Putin tells Russians

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41020snip.....For his part, Jeff Gable, emerging markets economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, disagrees. He believes it would be reasonable to shift from the dollar to the euro now. In general, he said, it depended on the forecast for the euro. According to his forecasts, the dollar's exchange rate against the euro would be 1.25 USD/EUR in one year's time, and the European currency will continue strengthening......

TH....I wonder how far the $ can fall??

Dollar Bill

(10/25/2003; 09:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 110837)

'/ '

On the Russian use of euro;
"..But in the opinion of Natalya Orlova, economist with Alfa Bank, Mr. Ulyukayev's statement reflects an overall concern about the strengthening of the euro. As for the appropriateness of increasing the share of euros in the reserves, expert opinions are split.
***"It is clear that to change the structure of the reserves now, when the euro is at the peak of its value, would be irresponsible.*** Such changes should be prepared in advance," she said. Ms. Orlova does not rule out that an increase in the percentage of euros in the reserves could be discussed. However, she notes, the structure of the reserves should correspond to the structure of foreign debt payments. Russia is currently making about 30 percent of debt payments in euros, and the 25 percent share in the reserves is close to optimal. "Secondly, the reserves should correspond to the structure of foreign trade. And Russia trades mostly in dollars. Some companies shifted to euros, but not on a mass scale," the analyst added.

Liberty Head

(10/25/2003; 11:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110838)

Re: More red ink for states

misetich,
Thanks for posting the link and your insightful comments.
----------------
Snippet:
For example, California Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) will have to grapple with an $8 billion deficit next year, roughly 11 percent of the state's budget.
----------------

It is so telling that gov't leaders never consider reduced spending in their bogus attempts to balance a budget.
Arnold thinks the California solution is to have the feds bail us out. The federal gov't is over $7 trillion in debt.
What does this say about Arnold's financial integrity?

It has never been more clear. Solutions will not come from our government. The solutions must come from individuals doing what is in their own best interest.
Owning gold is the best thing one can do to protect oneself from runaway gov't spending.

Best Wishes

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/25/2003; 11:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110839)

Common sense investing for common and uncommon times...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Usul

(10/25/2003; 14:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110840)

Mis-government

It has been my observation that Emperors, Kings, Lord Protectors, States and Governments tend to grow in power and regulation and oppression until it becomes so unbearable to the masses (or a faction who desires power) that there is a bloody revolution, and then what happens next can be:

(a) A benign regime such as that enshrined in the original US constitution- if you are lucky.

(b) Another despot takes over... year zero.

(c) A counter-revolution takes place, and those who led the revolution are dealt with. Back to square one.

I can not recall a case where a government has voluntarily scaled back its tax take, its regulations, its army of government employees, and so forth. If you think about it, perhaps the most benign revolution of recent times was the overthrow of the USSR.

When these kinds of events take place, financial institutions, state deposit insurance, law and order can break down, and wealth can disappear overnight. This of course is a good reason for holding a proportion of your wealth in physical gold, which is not a "promise to pay" and depends on no-one for the realisation of its value. As far as value, wealth, assets, capital, and funds are concerned it holds them in its self. I'm not saying that social catastrophe is going to happen- just that a little insurance is worth having, because you never know.

a nation of one

(10/25/2003; 19:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110841)

redux

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

a nation of one

(10/25/2003; 19:18:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110842)

a slice of the past

"By far the largest single use for gold is as the backing for the world's currency. Approximately 60% of all the gold mined to date is held by governments and central banks for this purpose. The estimated world monetary gold reserve, excluding the Soviet Union and its satellites, is approximately $40,000,000,000; about 40% of this reserve is held by the United States. The gold is used not only to back the paper currencies of the individual countries but also to settle trade differences between countries. It is accepted by all nations of the world as the means of settling their debts. The U.S. government, in 1934, raised the price of gold from $20.66 to $35.00 per troy ounce, and it is at this price that international debts are now settled."

That's from the 1970 edition of the Encyclopedia Brittanica, Volume 10 [Garrison - Halibut], page 536B.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

(Troy weight is based on a pound of 12 ounces and the ounce of 20 pennyweights or 480 grains.)

Cavan Man

(10/25/2003; 19:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110843)

What's to hide?

From the NEOCONS are OLD CONS files.....By PHILIP SHENON The New York Times

MADISON, N.J., Oct. 25 � The chairman of the federal commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks said that the White House was continuing to withhold several highly classified intelligence documents from the panel and that he was prepared to subpoena the documents if they were not turned over within weeks.

The chairman, Thomas H. Kean, the former Republican governor of New Jersey, also said in an interview that he believed the bipartisan 10-member commission would soon be forced to issue subpoenas to other executive branch agencies because of continuing delays by the Bush administration in providing documents and other evidence needed by the panel.

"Any document that has to do with this investigation cannot be beyond our reach," Mr. Kean said on Friday in his first explicit public warning to the White House that it risked a subpoena and a politically damaging courtroom showdown with the commission over access to the documents, including Oval Office intelligence reports that reached President Bush (news - web sites)'s desk in the weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks.

"I will not stand for it," Mr. Kean said in the interview in his offices here at Drew University, where he has been president since 1990.

"That means that we will use every tool at our command to get hold of every document."

CM comment: A loss in confidence in the .gov is a PLUS FOR au owners; no doubt about it.

Cavan Man

(10/25/2003; 19:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110844)

Halliburton: A strong BUY

Awake from your slumber American citizens.TIKRIT, Iraq, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- Eight U.S. soldiers were injured in two separate attacks in Iraq Saturday, one involving the crash of an Army Blackhawk helicopter.

The helicopter crashed near Tikrit Saturday and its crew, on the ground, was fired upon by rocket propelled grenades, CNN reported.

Five soldiers were evacuated from the area and suffered unknown injuries. It was also not known whether the injuries came from the chopper crash or subsequent attack, a military spokesman said.

CM comment: A continued loss in the public's confidence in the .gov fuels in large measure the physical demand for AU.

cockerel1

(10/25/2003; 21:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110845)

Golden!

Josh Beckett's right arm!

Congratulations to the Marlins!

GratefulForGold

(10/25/2003; 22:26:24 MDT - Msg ID: 110846)

"Changing Course" by Wallenwein

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallenwein102703.htmlI found this G-E editorial to be pretty well written and informative. No, it contains nothing new to most here, but it says things in a nice, simple way that would benefit newcomers.

My own political prejudice came up, however, when I read an earlier, linked editorial of his and he was praising our current administration's actions. His and my political beliefs aside, I do appreciate his take on gold, euro and the US$.

Lady GFG

Dollar Bill

(10/25/2003; 22:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110847)

'/ '

Cant the US just make a deal with its creditors? And say that "we are going to debase our currency by our actions, by maybe 1/3, but since we control the computer, we will just type in an increase of your holdings by 1/3 to make up the difference. Just so you will cooperate by continueing to loan us your hard earned money. Just dont tell the rest of the world."
That kind of deal with Japan and someday China?
Japan and China now have other reasons for supporting the dollar, by the calculations of a Japanese analyst, here is the future if the US can get those two to continue for 20 years....
"Let us translate those numbers into plain language. The condition at 2023 will be as follows: American net worth will shrink substantially by 2023, but an average American citizen will live in an estate home built with money borrowed from Japan, will drive Japanese made luxury automobiles purchased with the money borrowed from Japan, and will dine daily in high class restaurants and charge the expense on credit cards which are again financed with the money borrowed from Japan. At that time US will become a virtual society, as discussed in Section 5, without any manufacturing base. US Federal Reserve System will become the agent of Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore who collectively hold 18 trillion dollar worth of claims on US. On the other side of the Pacific, Japan will become the richest nation on earth according to its national account balance, but an average Japanese will be peddling bicycles instead of driving automobiles, a Japanese family will be clamped into a 300 square feet apartment, and an average meal of Japanese citizen will return to a box of white rice with a red preserved plum sitting in the middle of the box, a typical diet of Japanese during the World War II. Japanese Government will be more occupied in managing 9.0 trillion US dollar located in US than to be bothered with running a meager 2.7 trillion Dollar Japanese domestic economy. If we think such a picture is too ridiculous to be true, then we must conclude that US Dollar will suffer a catastrophic collapse, the runaway US trade deficit will be curbed, and US economy will sink into a depression on the way to 2023."

misetich

(10/26/2003; 07:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110848)

A gold bear claws back - Andy Smith

Snip:

"My worry is that this option machine gets stuck in overdrive; then it's going to blow up and then it's going to blow down. There is going to be collateral damage for the professional community. Whatever pleasure there is at $400/oz, of $450/oz or even $500/oz will be balanced by pain. And there'll be pain at the end of this, that's for sure. You can't ride this monster and get away with your body parts intact," said Smith.

The collateral damage, he says, could result if the gold market were to suffer another crash, similar to the one that took the price down to the mid $250/oz level in August of 1999. After a second bloodying, he says banks could decide that trading in gold is simply not worth the candle, robbing the market of the crucial elements of liquidity and credibility.

Central Banks

But commercial banks are not the only players at risk. Smith says gold price volatility is also likely to scare off Central Banks, the largest group of gold investors � and so also the biggest threat to price - with more than 30,000 tons of bullion in their vaults.

"Major cross currency rates have volatility of around 10 percent and gold's is twice that at 20 percent. They can't realise any capital gain because they're hooked into the sales quota, so what use is that volatility? It's no use," says Smith.
***************
Misetich
From an article posted at Miningweb

Poor Andy he's worried about the collateral damage to the professional community. This Gold Mega Bear didn't utter a word of "collateral damage" during the onslought toward gold miners during the last 7 period 1997 to 1999.

Mr. Smith during that period of time led the charge. Many gold investors were decimated during that period of time thanks to Mr. Smith and Mr. Arnold, the two mouthpieces of the Gold Cartel during the onslought.

Deciphering Andy's fear:

a) Collateral damage to the professional community - Translation = Andy will be out of a job since he's been a mega short since gold topped $350

b)"After a second bloodying, he says banks could decide that trading in gold is simply not worth the candle, robbing the market of the crucial elements of liquidity and credibility." TRANSLATION - Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and other bullion bankers are going to get savaged during this Gold Bull. Andy is imploring for a bailout ala 1999 from Central Bankers as gold price expressed in US $ is reaching $400. Bullion bankers are going to take a hit and pack up their bags.

c) "Major cross currency rates have volatility of around 10 percent and gold's is twice that at 20 percent.

TRANSLATION - Andy is a poor math student. Currencies volatility over the last 20 years have been 4 to 5 times larger than Andy's 10%

d) But commercial banks are not the only players at risk. Smith says gold price volatility is also likely to scare off Central Banks

TRANSLATION - Andy is trying to convey and act in the best interests of those he serves. The Commercials the Bullion Bankers. Even Greenspan concedes Gold is the ultimate currency in times of trouble.

Most of the world Central Bank's are shaken and fearful of a collapse of the US $ which they have amassed in great proportion.

Mr. Smith ought to consider the bloodbath that will be forthcoming as the US $ continues its descending path downwards and the collateral damage to millions and millions of investors that have been mislead to the client's he serves.

Hopefully Mr. Smith is a man's of convictions and will stick to his current position.

Au revoir Andy.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1

(10/26/2003; 08:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110849)

Could this start a new wave into IT stocks?

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20031026/bs_nm/tech_google_dcSources: Google Seeks Banks to Lead IPO

By Jeffrey Goldfarb and Lisa Baertlein

NEW YORK/PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - Google, the 5-year-old company that redefined the way people search the Internet, is actively seeking bankers to help it sell shares of the company to the public, according to people familiar with the situation.

An initial public offering of Google shares has long been rumored and investment banks have tripped over themselves for years trying to convince the company to do so.

The formal search that Google began signals it may be ready to go public in what would likely be the biggest technology IPO in years.

Google recently brought in about 35 firms to pitch for the business and invited about a dozen back for more conversations. The company has narrowed the list even further, said one person who requested anonymity. The IPO likely would occur in the first half of next year, several people said.

A Google spokesman declined to comment.

"Their timing is terrific," a technology investment banker said. "Search is very hot right now, they have great momentum. It's a weak IPO market and there's tremendous focus on Google."

Another person familiar with Google's plans said the company is aiming for a valuation of about $16 billion, a percentage of which would be sold to the public.

By comparison in the Internet world, Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - news) has a market capitalization of about $26 billion and Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:AMZN - news) about $22 billion.

Only 53 public offerings in history have exceeded $1 billion, IPO analyst John Fitzgibbon said.

The leading technology financial advisers are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse First Boston and Citigroup, though it could not be confirmed whether any or all were among Google's final callbacks.

A Google IPO could open the door for more deals and revive Silicon Valley, which has languished for 3 years following the pop of the technology bubble. Some smaller IPOs, like those of online gift retailer RedEnvelope Inc. and a pending one for online travel site Orbitz, have generated fresh optimism.

The brainchild of two Stanford students, Google's austere site changed the world of search engines in 1998 by introducing a simple way to find information on the Web -- by basing its responses on the popularity of visited pages. It now handles about 150 million searches a day.

The company, based in Mountain View, California, derives most of its revenue -- estimated by analysts to be as high as $1 billion -- from search-related advertising services.

"It's a very profitable company," said one person familiar with Google's finances. "Earnings are in the hundreds of millions."

Venture capital firms Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital, as well as Stanford University, are among Google's early investors and stand to reap huge returns from an IPO.

CoBra(too)

(10/26/2003; 09:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110850)

Free Gold!

Wallenwein has penned an excellent article about FREE GOLD and the currencies tolerating free Gold. Obviously the US dollar is not really promoting such and outcome. No wonder, really.

Also today's Privateer has taken up the theme, though a little differently - the outcome will still be the same.

Time permitting, I'll post some excerpts and the essence later on. Overall there is not not much left to encourage real change for the better in todays US affairs, be it politically, economically, nor in the terms of the sinking predominance of the Dollar Reserve Standard.
cb2

PS: Except one thing. An American, Bode Miller, has won the first world cup giant slalom of the season by nearly declassing the rest of his contenders.
Being aware that alpine skiing is not the most popular sport in the US, this guy has shown the real spirit of Americans, who've made the country great. As long as there are the likes of Bode Miller, the neo-con elite may not succeed and get away with curbing the freedom and personal liberties of this great country for much longer.

Julia

(10/26/2003; 09:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110851)

Gold Chart

Hi Gandalf,
Just what does the "latest little GREEN X" mean exactly on that P&F chart?
Julia

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/26/2003; 10:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110852)

A complete gold investment education in 175 pages for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Cavan Man

(10/26/2003; 11:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110853)

@CB (too)

I might add that an Irish horse...ISLINGTON....won the Breeder's Cup Race yesterday. Euro horses are fresh and run like IRON.

Ten Bears

(10/26/2003; 12:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110854)

Great posts

Great posts over the past several days: Thanks GAB, Rysa and Specie man. And a special thanks to Mr. Gresham for providing perspective enhancements.

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 13:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110855)

OH Joy !! -- A question from Lady Julia !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PJulia (10/26/03; 09:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110851)
Gold Chart
Hi Gandalf,
Just what does the "latest little GREEN X" mean exactly on that P&F chart?
Julia
===
THANKS for asking Lady Julia !! <;-)
The latest little GREEN "X" is the one gained Friday on the "ROCKET" (stack of other "X"'s) reversal that occured on last Monday !
One MUST remember that the "DOWN Stack" (the adjacent column toped with an "A", (standing for the month of Oct. in which the DOWN reversal occured), AND the FIVE little "O"'s --- WERE the one-day CABAL effort of "RUNNING THE STOP LOSS BOOKS" to drive down the POG !
THAT is the LAST time that the CABAL will ever be able to do that, AS the Goldhearts have now said "NEVERAGAIN" !!!
--
This last little GREEN "X" is now level with the other little BLACK "X" that indicates the HIGHEST POG todate of this continuation of The GOLDEN BULL MARKET that started in early 2001 (at the bottom of the slanted BLUE LINE !! THE NEXT little Green "X" will be the BREAKOUT of this chart and indicates that the POG is going "TO THE MOON, Alice" !!!
Perhaps we will see that little GREEN "X" this next week.
The Hobbits think so.
Understanding TA better ? IF not, please ask again.
<;-)

Paper Avalanche

(10/26/2003; 13:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110856)

I wonder if the shorts got much sleep this weekend

Markets open in just a few hours.

Tick tock. Tick tock.

PA

(10/26/2003; 15:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110857)

Gandalf, the Great One, Wizard of Wizards. . . .

Can you and the hobbits pull yourselves away from the Sunday football games to put together a price guessing contest???

Let's make the winning prize a .2334 oz. Argentino 5 peso, and the two runners-up a Silver Eagle each.

Each entry should include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach All Hallows.............

As always, I will rely on you and the hobbits to fill in the details, and proclaim the official start of the contest.

_____

And you are right, O Great and Mighty Wizard....once again. Your crystal ball, I see, works for many different purposes. We are busily and secretly at work behind the scenes to launch our extra-special, high-quality gold jewelry site, where the price will not only be right but adjustable to the daily gold fix for almost 1500 items............a first I'm sure -- anywhere!! Our hope is to be up and running the first week of November and we're pulling out all the stops to make that deadline. So ask the hobbits to start thinking about which golden, glittery item -- chains, bracelets, necklaces, earrings, etc -- Mrs Hobbit might like to see under the tree this year.

_____

Thanks and good luck to all.

21mabry

(10/26/2003; 15:23:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110858)

Another

I was reading from Another today.Quoting him "gold and oil can never move in the same direction" I know he means in the physical sense,but I also believe he spoke about it moving in opposite price directions too.He was writing in the late 90s when a lid was being kept on oil in dollar terms buy the use of gold.I have always thought you could tell the state of the world by the price of oil and gold which price wise move in the same direction.Could someone tell me if I am missing the point of Anothers writing. Thanks 21

CoBra(too)

(10/26/2003; 16:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110859)

Walking Away From The US Dollar!

As the Privateer put it in a sub-heading.

First FDR and then Nixon were walking away from the US Dollar, as it was intended to be gold and silver coin by the founding fathers.

It may be the most scary experience for the US establishment to see the rest of the world walk away from the US dollar reserve standard, as well. The signs are on the wall. And there will be a day in the not too distant future, when walking will mean a less costly option for all participants in the scheme of floating currency rates.

The gamble on a reserve currency of seignorage, based on economic performance alone, has not only miserably failed; It has also brought about a system of delusion, hedonic reporting and outright fraud. A system, which should and will be abandonded by both, economic necessity and the eventual rebirth of, let's be kind, fair play.

All signs are on red alert, though no-one knows how this malaise will work out. Except some kind of real value has to be re-established to act as anchor to the lost sense of valuation. Historically, it has been gold and it may be again.

Alas, in the form of free gold, guiding the world to a more equitable place. A place, where all know that their labor, resources and lastly their commitment are equitably honored. And if that's a socialistic idea, I'm all for it.

cb2

PS: Just ramblings on Sun. night and not to be construed as a contest entry ...

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 16:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110860)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)

YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested an "All Hallows" POG Settlement Contest be started !
--
IT STARTS NOW ! (AND, does not last too long.) Trick or Treat ?

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize an Argentino "5 Peso" goldpiece (0.2334 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach the eve of Halloween.
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 29th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $400.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $400.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market !

===
"TRICK or TREAT ?" !!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 17:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110861)

OOPS --- First Error -- RULE #2 should read ===>

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 30th, 2003.
==
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 17:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110862)

****** $400.0 *******

The "Scariest Aspect" of this gold market is that the POG may go "TO THE MOON" before I am ready !! So much to do and so little time. <;-)

Clink!

(10/26/2003; 17:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110863)

It's not just the exported jobs that are a problem

http://www.sptimes.com/2003/10/26/Columns/It_didn_t_start_with_.shtmlAs jobs get tighter and tighter in the US, let us spare a thought for all the poorest paid people in the country. If companies are more and more reluctant to hire people at less than minimum wage because of risk of criminal charges, we are going to see a combination of the following things :-

1/ Low paid job functions will just not be done.

2/ Those that are critical will start to be paid at the minimum wage, which will lead to more products, particularly farm produce as Maxwell mentions, being priced out of the market by imports.

3/ A large population of extremely poor, unemployed and often illegal people who will be getting increasingly desperate just to stay alive.

4/ The competition at the bottom of the pay scale will get more intense.

It's going to become nasty.
C!

Liberty Head

(10/26/2003; 17:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110864)

Central Bank governers

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/031026/481/mor11010262156&e=10&ncid=
Finance officials from 20 nations and Central Bank governers pose for the official photo of the annual meeting of the Group of 20 nations in Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2003
---------------------------
Notice the they are all wearing gold ties.

Best Wishes

21mabry

(10/26/2003; 17:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 110865)

***407.50***

The thing that scare me most are elected and unelected goverment officials confiscating it.I am also fearful of public reaction to those who based their investment strategy on precious metals.21

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 17:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 110866)

WOWSERS Sir Liberty Head !!! THAT is a GREAT one !

Liberty Head (10/26/03; 17:12:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 110864)
Central Bank governers
---------------------------
"Notice the they are all wearing gold ties."
===
We also know what they know !
Get real GOLD and also a GOLD TIE too.
<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(10/26/2003; 18:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110867)

$$$$$$ 8,752.00$$$$$$

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

The "SCARIEST ASPECT" of this gold market is that the people having so-called gold-accounts in/at their banks don't realise that this represents only a claim so that when the move actually starts, they will be standing with their pants down. At this hour, you still have the picture on www.drudgereport.com.

Dollar Bill

(10/26/2003; 19:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110868)

*>*.........+

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett sees very few attractive investments at the moment, and is sitting tight on a $24 billion war chest.
The billionaire investor and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway said in an interview with Barron's that he is not impressed with the current opportunities in stocks, Treasury bonds or junk debt.

"We've got more cash than ideas. The question is whether that will prevail for an unduly long time," he told Barron's.

In fact, Berkshire sold $9 billion of long-term Treasury bonds this year, and Buffett said buying at current levels is not a wise move,

...What would YOU do with 24 billion?

Dollar Bill

(10/26/2003; 19:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110869)

^_^

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar, which has slid more than 10 percent this year against a basket of six major currencies, will probably fall further, said David Robinson, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's research department.
...The U.S. dollar's index traded at 91.23 at 1:41 p.m. in Singapore, the lowest since January 1997. In the past decade, it has traded as low as 80.05 in April 1995.
...''The U.S. dollar is, in our view, likely to depreciate over the medium-term,'' Robinson said in an interview in Singapore. ''If one just looks at the appreciation of the U.S. dollar since 1995, only about 10 percent of that has been reversed.''
...The currency's decline is also eroding the holdings of many Asian central banks, which own assets denominated in dollars, Robinson said. Foreign-currency reserves in Asia have about doubled to almost $900 billion since the 1997-1998 financial crisis in the region.
...China has built up foreign-exchange reserves of more than $300 billion, second only to Japan's. China's reserves rose to a record $383.90 billion in September. Taiwan's foreign-currency reserves also touched a record $190.6 billion last month. The U.S. had a trade deficit with China of $103 billion last year, its biggest ever with any country.
''Those countries that are building up large stocks of U.S.- dollar reserves will be vulnerable to capital losses,'' Robinson said. The building of reserves leads to ''inflationary pressures and pressures on credit growth.''
In East Asia, reserves are five or six times that of short- term debt, levels which are too high to protect economies against the risk of a regional financial crisis, Robinson said.
''It does lead to excessive monetary growth and pressures there and we're starting to see that in some countries, not least in China,'' Robinson said.

Rimh

(10/26/2003; 20:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110870)

****** $412.50 ******

The scariest aspect of this gold market is people's ignorance of it, in this, the early stage of the "BULL RIDE".

It reminds me of the old Bugs Bunny cartoon of Bugs at the bull fight. The bull comes up and is breathing steam on his tail. Bugs brushes him off and continues to study his map. Next thing he knows, he is sailing through the air, having been launched by the bull.

How many have brushed this bull off in spite of its three year track record? How many will be caught off guard when it goes 'to da moon'?

Goldbug 1

(10/26/2003; 20:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110871)

Use for 24 billion.........

Dollar Bill asks "What would YOU do with 24 billion".
Personably I would donate 20 billion for research into a vaccine to prevent Malaria and AIDS and then live happily on the mere 4 billion that I had left.

silvercollector

(10/26/2003; 20:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 110872)

Well....it had to happen.

http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;$sessionid$B4VQ350W3YOVJQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2003/10/26/wnuke26.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/10/26/ixnewstop.html&secureRefresh=trueRumsfeld wants mini-nukes.

"Influential advisers at the Pentagon are backing the development of a new generation of low-yield nuclear weapons - so-called mini-nukes - in a controversial report to be published this autumn."

Smeagol

(10/26/2003; 20:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110873)

******401.3******

Another Contesst! (capering) Yes, yess, we will guess, we will guess again for It!

And now, precious (whispering) we tells a horrible tale... sss... of what the Big Law people might do when the 'situation' gets 'out of hand' and 'becomes' a 'security threat' to the 'interessts' of the United States - declaring Gold, Silver and Platinum as 'sstrategic metals' and ach! THIEEEEVING them from uss - (suddenly yelling) AGAIN!!!

"fool Smeagol once, sshame on you, fool Smeagol twice, shame on poor Smeagol!"

Then again, more horrible will it be when the Wizard's rocket is well on the way to the Silver Face and we won't be able to afford as much of It!(grin)

But more worsst of all by FAR - no more of It for Contessts!! ACH! Sss, Nooooo! Anything, anything but that!

S.

Great Albino Bat

(10/26/2003; 21:00:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110874)

What would I do with $24 billion?

Tell you what, I'd waste no time finding an excuse to RESIGN from Berkshire Hathaway or whatever, have the board pay me a very juicy retirement payment, say $1 bill, then I'd buy a bit of gold with say, $300 million, stash it away in a few places (outside the country, most of it) buy some bonds (Canadian, Australian, New Zealand etc) and some gold stocks, and hole up somewhere nice, with a lot of acreage and...well, all the other stuff besides the gold is just to provide cover for the "modest" (relatively) investment in gold.

Perhaps I'd get a plastic surgery job on my face, so I could rejoin the human race as a nobody.

Does the $24 bil own Mr. Buffett, or Mr. Buffett own the $24 bil? I think it's the first case, myself.

Real guano from the GAB.

Caradoc

(10/26/2003; 21:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110875)

****** $417.50 *******

For me, the scariest thing about the pending surge in gold is the chance that right after an apparent interim top (when I will have taken profits on 1/3 of my positions), gold will skyrocket toward $3,640 per ounce, leaving me standing there holding green paper in my left hand and making noises like "But... but... I... uh...."

Caradoc

Druid

(10/26/2003; 21:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110876)

Gold's Rise: Something New To Worry About

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wanniski102703.htmlSnip:

At $385 per ounce and climbing, the dollar/gold price is now threatening to break the $400 level we think would put a major crimp in the financial markets and the economy. When gold last broke $390 in late September it may have been no coincidence that equities sold off, recovering only when gold sharply retreated. What we now have to worry about is an unintended consequence of the Patriot's Act, one that almost certainly is steadily reducing the demand for dollar liquidity in a way that produces upward pressure on gold and downward pressure on the dollar relative to the euro and yen. These are in the provisions designed to track down suspicious transactions that might be endangering homeland security, specifically those referred to as "Know Your Customer," (KYC). The due diligence is horrendous, with the problem not in the language of the Act, but in the way Treasury is writing the regulations. Earlier this month, it published a "clarification" to Section 326 of the Act, which requires financial institutions to have a process to identify customers and periodically check data about them against watch lists maintained by Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control. But while the Act requires financial institutions to develop the ability to detect and report money laundering by suspected terrorists, there are more than 46 specific subsections that cover enforcement requirements.

Druid: An extremely interesting read and perspective.

21mabry

(10/26/2003; 22:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110877)

24 billion

If I had 24 billion dollars I would by a private island in international waters declare it a soverign state'seek U.N. recongnition.Then I would acumulate gold and silver issue precious metal backed certifcates 100 percent backed and redemable on demand.Then I would sit back and see what happens.Iprobably would be invaded by a U.N. backed force for something or other.21

Caradoc

(10/26/2003; 22:47:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110878)

Druid: Thank you for the link

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wanniski102703.htmlGreat reading and yet another reason for gold to rise. Between Sinclair's idea that "spooks" from all sides will be outing everything thay know about members of the current US adminustration and your link's indication that the Patriot Act's "Know your customer" requirements are slowing down the liquidity of the dollar, we almost don't need the ongoing triple deficits for gold to continue its rise.

My experience last month in trying to wire a lousy few thousand bucks to Ireland was that I kept running into the requirement that the institution originating the wire transfer had to "Vouch For The Source Of The Money." While exploring three different approaches (none of which would allow them to VFTSOTM), I was slowed down by about 20 minutes before I suggested going home to get cash, returning to open a new checking account, and then wiring funds from that account to daughter in Ireland. Altogether, about an hour and a half shot and no more accomplished for "national security" than if a terrorist or drug dealer had been forced to open a checking account before doing whatever he wanted with his cash.

Since my minor transaction was slowed down by 90 minutes, I have no doubt about the several days of delay that would slow down (and maybe even kill!!) a multi-million dollar transaction if denominated in US dollars. Small wonder that those who wheel and deal in the international arena are turning to the Euro.

Question for all: does anybody know whether making gold legal again automatically got rid of FDR's law abrogating all public and private contract clauses calling for payment in gold? In other words, are such contract clauses now legal again?

Caradoc

Goldendome

(10/26/2003; 23:05:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110879)

Gold Clauses @ Caradoc

http://www.eagletraders.com/advice/securities/gold_clause_cases.htm
Sir Caradoc: It would appear, unfortunately that supreme court cases have upheld the prohibition on gold repayment clauses. I believe a person might be able to have a gold clause in a contract, but that it would not nead to be honored by the opposite party. ----Gdome

Druid

(10/26/2003; 23:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110880)

Caradoc (10/26/03; 22:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110878)

Druid: Caradoc, you're quite welcome. Anything to inform and contribute. It's difficult enough just to keep up with the economic, political and financial fires that are consuming the dollar now add this to the pot. For those of us who have been fortunate enough to stumble on to this site and walk the gold trail, we are literally witnessing the destruction of the dollar and all that this event portends. It is both frightening and phenomenal.

balzac

(10/26/2003; 23:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110881)

THE CONTEST

******387.5******
The scariest aspect of todays goldmarket is the direct relationship
to the intensifiying Iraq-Afghanistan guerilla wars which will have
a number of consequences, among them the rising price of gold.

But what will the cost of these conflicts be to the American people?
A further loss in personal freedoms ,an erosion of Americas reputation world wide and a possible financial crash precipitated by the fall of the world's reserve currency[us dollars] .

The loss of the foregoing three may ultimately lead to a deminishing of DEMOCRACY AS A FORM OF GOVT. .
this is really scary

Balzac

Zhisheng

(10/26/2003; 23:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110882)

***$420.0***

I am on the right side of this market, and the great body of investors (including the Feds and foreign Central Banks) are on the wrong side. And I have zero formal, and a very modest practical economic education. The implications of those two facts comprise the scariest part of the this Gold Market.

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 23:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 110883)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

PROGRESS report on the Halloween POG Guessing CONTEST !!

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of Midnight (24:00 Denver time) Sunday 10/26/03, with ONLY FOUR DAYS until entry DEADLINE !!!

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420.0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881
===

The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested an "All Hallows" POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize an Argentino "5 Peso" goldpiece (0.2334 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach the eve of Halloween.
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes twelve times (MIDNIGHT 24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 30th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $400.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $400.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market !

===
"TRICK or TREAT ?" !!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/26/2003; 23:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110884)

OOPS --- WHO set the clocks back for the end of DST ?

Whomever did tricked the Ol'e Wiz !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 00:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110885)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

2nd TRY !PROGRESS report on the Halloween POG Guessing CONTEST !!

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of Midnight (24:00 Denver time) Sunday 10/26/03, with ONLY FOUR DAYS until entry DEADLINE !!!

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420.0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881
===

The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested an "All Hallows" POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize an Argentino "5 Peso" goldpiece (0.2334 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach the eve of Halloween.
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes twelve times (MIDNIGHT 24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 30th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $400.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $400.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market !

===
"TRICK or TREAT ?" !!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Caradoc

(10/27/2003; 00:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110886)

Iraq and California

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=394069§ion=newsReuters says only two but CNN says several explosions in Baghdad over the last few minutes: government ministries, Red Cross, etc. This on top of the 6- or 8-rocket attack on the hotel.

"Ramadan kareem," indeed.

Turning to what's going on in here in southern California, the fires that started yesterday were (with the exception of the Camp Pendleton fire) in a curiously straight row running from east to west with ignition points about a mile north of Foothill Blvd at the base of the mountains. Although only two or three of those fires have been identified as arson, it's not too hard to figure how fires get started in a straight line. Those fires destroyed hundreds of houses near the base of the mountains and today have burned their way uphill to threaten the area around Lake Arrowhead.

While those fires were burning their way uphill, several fires started today down in San Diego county. They're scattered around, not in a straight line but ignition points are close to various freeway interchanges and a couple have already been identified as arson.

Sometimes even paranoids have real enemies.

Caradoc

ha_tey_o

(10/27/2003; 01:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110887)

***************** $418.20 ************************

The "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market, for me, is what the reaction of the US government elite will be as they realize that they are losing control. Somehow, I don't think they will go quietly into the night.

The Invisible Hand

(10/27/2003; 03:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110888)

Wall Street preview

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3216743.stmSNIPS:
Trading on Russia's MICEX stock exchange has been suspended after a heavy sell-off triggered by the arrest on Saturday of one of the country's leading oil magnates.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chief executive of oil giant Yukos, was charged with offences including defrauding the state out of $1bn.
Trading on the MICEX was suspended for one hour from 8:30 GMT after a tumble of more than 13 per cent, dragged down by Yukos stocks which fell by over 19%.

silvercollector

(10/27/2003; 03:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110889)

What would YOU do with 24 billion?

I'd give 24,000 of my closest friends a million bucks!

;)

goldbaron

(10/27/2003; 04:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110890)

****** 401.90

The "scariest aspect" might be that Common sense would prevail, paper would be outlawed,a return to a gold standard would ensue, and I would wake-up 'cause I spilled my BEER!!!!

goldbaron

(10/27/2003; 04:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110891)

*****401.90******

sorry didn't hit my head hard enuff.

Slowman

(10/27/2003; 04:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110892)

****396.10****

The scaret time has yet to come with Ramadan starting and a declaration that something bigger than 9-11 will happen somewhere between 10/27 and 11/25. Get GOLD now!!!!!

(10/27/2003; 07:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110893)

Richard Russel on gold

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell102703.htmlRussel says : "Gold --As I see it, the only "safe" investment today is gold. Gold is pure, unencumbered wealth. Gold is money, recognized as such around the world."

Gene

(10/27/2003; 07:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110894)

*******$397.5*******

The dollar goes down the tubes.Bush gets blamed and Hillary is elected president.

Gene

(10/27/2003; 07:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110895)

(No Subject)

PS: Now that's scary

Lothar of the Hill People

(10/27/2003; 09:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110896)

******* 383.5 ********

Lothar's greatest fear is that a few powerful vampires will continue to suck the life-blood out of a free gold market.

I am Lothar of the Hill People.

DryWasher

(10/27/2003; 10:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110897)

****** 388.2 ******

To me the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market is the very real probability that Gold will "Go To The Moon" as many posters here put it.

So why do I, a lifelong Gold Bug, fear a drastic rise in the price of gold?

Make no mistake about it, a drastic rise in the price in gold will not be an isolated event, but instead will come about only when our present monetary system breaks down and that will not be a pleasant time to be living in by any means, and I do fear that possibility.

My hope is that sanity will prevail and a way will be found to return to a fair and sustainable monetary system, and that somehow we will muddle through.

My expectation is that we will continue down this dead end road to collapse, perhaps slowly with many detours along the way, or perhaps very rapidly to the end of the road.

My comfort is the knowledge that I have a stash of golden insurance that will help to see me through the the good or bad times which lie ahead.

CoBra(too)

(10/27/2003; 10:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110898)

****** 394.40 ******

Even if I feel that 400 POG will prove a non-event, it also heralds the systemic breakdown of the US dollar reserve hegemony. This (breakdown) is already ongoing and its destruction is a given.
After all, 5% of the worlds population are perusing 80% of the world's savings and an indiscriminate portion of the globe's resources. Savings, the only source for real capital investment can't be borrowed over a longer time frame.

What's really scary, though, is the introduction of ever more restraints to trade the reserve currency freely. These recently introduced obstacles to deal in the reserve currency in any size are starting to affect all the US free trade, WTO and globalization was standing for.

I'm really scared of a split between a "pink investment dollar" and a green trade dollar (see: SAR a few decades ago). And even then, I'd be scared to invest in the US, a country regaling the rest of the world in terms of money laundering, while the real perpetrators sit at the money spigot.

I'm scared to see the US citizens losing their liberty and civil rights, as no-one is ready to stand up to take over as yet. cb2

Pizz

(10/27/2003; 10:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110899)

*****410.0*****

The financial mismanagement that has, is, and probably will continue has me somewhat amazed. It is obvious, continuous, and way too blatant so as to rationalize the upcoming US election cycle, financial engineering, soft landing theory, etc.

We are on fiat printing press life support, have been, and will continue to be, but gold is now just coming out of it's huge base.

Markets tend to anticipate, so what is really a bit scary is that when gold does break hard to the upside, just what in the heck will it be discounting that may not be on the radar screens as of yet?

Pizz

a nation of one

(10/27/2003; 10:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110900)

***** 402.00 *****

To me, there can hardly be anything scarier than that things might continue going on as they have been.

Solomon Weaver

(10/27/2003; 11:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110901)

******$392.30******

My premonition of fear is that the new gold ETFs will turn out to be paper suppliers inflating the liquidity of the gold market with vehicles which are not really gold ownership and are simply a mechanism for the "goldmasters" to have an audience to cash out against.

I am very glad that MK and friends offer a reliable source of transaction liquidity in real metal....as I am quite certain that CPM will be there for any trade I need (so far I have only been on the buy end :) )

But something in my stomach tells me that these gold ETFs are going to become competition to the small shops that handle the real McCoy, and it would be prudent for all of us to be diligent to understand the true effect of these new vehicles on REAL gold trading.

Poor old Solomon

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/27/2003; 11:44:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110902)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(10/27/2003; 11:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110903)

****391.20*****

I think it will be slow going into the next month but the gold bull will over power the weak dollar.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/27/2003; 11:50:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110904)

Bullion at one percent over our cost, FREE shipping on 25oz

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Call us today! 1-800-869-5115 ext. 100

Great Albino Bat

(10/27/2003; 12:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110905)

Drywasher: your post #110897....

You wrote:

"My expectation is that we will continue down this dead end road to collapse, perhaps slowly with many detours along the way, or perhaps very rapidly to the end of the road."

This sums up quite neatly, the viewpoint of the GAB.

Solomon Weaver: Yes, those ETF's in gold are object of deep suspicion. Expect the worst because in principle it appears quite clear that no real challenge to paper gold is going to be tolerated. On the contrary, the problem for the PTB is the physical off-take.

In the long run, of course, paper is doomed, but "many detours along the way" as Drywasher says, are to be expected in such a vastly important matter.

Do not discount surprises. Things are brewing down in the cellars of thought around the world. We shall see results when least expected, from where least expected.

Guano from the GAB

J-Bullion

(10/27/2003; 12:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110906)

$$$399.0$$$

The scariest part of this gold market is that there are very few people taking part in it. When the dollar ultimately adjusts to it's proper value, how many people you know will be financially ruined? Also, what use will all that wealth be if we live in a police state, thanks to the Patriot Act II?

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 12:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110908)

Sir J-Bullion

Gotya Sir J-Bullion !
Right next to me !!
<;-)

TownCrier

(10/27/2003; 12:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 110909)

Buffett stepping away from U.S. Dollar (i.e., bonds... and much else)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031027/financial_buffett_tradedeficit_1.htmlNEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett, the world's second richest man, said he was concerned with the size of the U.S. trade deficit and was investing in foreign currency in response to the problem.

"Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency," Buffett wrote. "Since then Berkshire has made significant investments in -- and today holds -- several currencies."

Buffett would not identify the currencies.

-----(from url)-------

You can also make a safe assumption that he would not reveal the size of any gold acquisitions either, especially because a wise man does not solicit attention when he's vying for a good position in a tight market like physical gold.

R.

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 12:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110910)

COMEX GOLD data UPDATE !! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX GOLD Contract Data

10/20/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8 OI 175,879
10/24/03 Open $385.8 HIGH $393.0 low $384.3 SETTLE $389.2 CHANGE +$4.2 OI 183,300
10/27/03 Open $387.7 HIGH $389.0 low $386.0 SETTLE $388.2 CHANGE -$1.0
===
NOTE that the OI keeps on INCREASING ----- and, Oh sorrow, -- No little GREEN "X" today ! <;-(
PERHAPS tomorrow !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 12:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110911)

TA TA TAAAAAAA ----"KING of the HILL" report !

Hitting it right on the NOSE -- was Sir DryWasher !!
--
**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897
--
Can he last it out this time ?
<;-)

Ten Bears

(10/27/2003; 13:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110912)

Marc Faber essay

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3480&tp=c
For those who have not already read "The south sea bubble and Mississippi scheme" by Merc Faber. It is a very good read

Liberty Head

(10/27/2003; 13:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110913)

*******$395.6********

The scariest aspect of this gold market is the unknown timing and magnitude of the dollars fall from grace.
Tick tick tick tick.

Best Wishes

Sundeck

(10/27/2003; 13:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 110914)

******$395.0*****

The scariest thing is not new: that political leaders are able to dupe a majority of the population with lies and fabrications, and choose to lead by avoiding Truth and playing to peoples' insidious natures - greed, predjudice, selfishness, self-delusion and fantasy. A problem not peculiar to the USA, I might add...

:-)

Sundeck

Waverider

(10/27/2003; 13:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 110915)

***** $396.60 *****

Thank you Sir MK for your generosity is hosting another FUN price guessing contest. I have been away this past week and in fact arrived home yesterday to find the 1/2 ounce Gold Eagle had arrived in all it's glory!! Thank you!

What is the scariest aspect of the Gold Bull? Desperate people do desperate things and I wouldn't put it past the Cabal to become so desperate that they make stronger associations between Gold and al Qaeda and use terrorism funding as a *cover* for implementing more stringent Gold regulations. I saw an article yesterday that the CB's and financial leaders meeting in Mexico are calling for ways to regulate the halawa network, the untraceable money transfer system widely used in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia. I'm not sure how they would go about doing this, but I can see them using the opportunity to simultaneously expand Gold trade regulations in Europe/North America...in the interest of homeland security of course. I could be wrong but Aristotle's consistent script of getting Physical in hand makes more and more sense to me each passing day! The Cabal may try to TRICK us, but we will already have our GOLDEN TREATS in the bag!!!

TownCrier

(10/27/2003; 13:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110916)

[If you only read one bit of news today] Inflation an important part of China's big transition strategy? Maybe!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031027/economy_china_1.htmlBEIJING, Oct 27 (Reuters) -
...China's currency policy has been the target of growing criticism from politicians and manufacturers in the United States and other countries who charge the exchange rate is too low and makes Chinese exports unfairly cheap.

[Randy's note: A monetary mechanism to get your mind around is that as Chinese exporters receive dollars in the course of international trade, as they exchange them locally at the bank for yuan (renminbi) to pay their local wages, the Peoples Bank of China ultimately absorbs these dollars as reserve assets for the emission of new yuan. To put a bow on this, the PBC's M.O. (method of operation) currently supports our bond market as these sterile dollars are sent back to New York for our interest bearing bonds. Now read onward...]

The broad money supply would rise about 20 percent in 2003, the bank said, well ahead of a target of about 16 percent set at the start of the year.

The surging money growth, fuelled in part by heated lending to sectors such as property, has led some economists to warn that the world's sixth-biggest economy may start to overheat, which could trigger inflation and worsen a chronic bad loan problem in the banks.

-------(from url)------

In China this growth in money supply is outpacing even the brisk rate of economic growth, and seems destined to ramp up the rate of price inflation.

How might citizens be either expected or programmed to react when faced with obvious signs of inflation? Buying gold is the short answer.

To that effect, we would all do well to recall the report that has been circulating widely for the past month. Below is an overview of the pertinent elements.

--BEGIN ChinaDaily EXCERPTS from following url)--
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm

HEADLINE: China's gold rush

( 2003-09-25) -- Prominent gold experts and officials are urrging the government to lift the ban on individual trading in the precious metal as soon as possible, as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.

The introduction of individual traders, they say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

It is "safe and feasible" for China to spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on gold imports, as well as place such purchases on the domestic market and open the market to individual players at the earliest possible opportunity, said Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert.

About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold.

After trying in vain for years to encourage a high growth rate in private spending.......as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market....creat[ing] demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

[Key points coming up...]

Even if the anticipated 300 billion yuan worth of private investment was made right away, the country's US$356.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of July could cater for the demand with ease.

Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan".

[Did you get that? Read it again. Finds a use for stale dollar reserves, also helps bring international trade into balance through imports of gold.]

Xu said the association has long proposed promoting individual ownership of gold, adding that the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date.

He also stressed the need to spend part of the country's foreign exchange reserves on gold imports once the domestic market is opened to individual investors.

[Those are noble intentions for what is yet only humble beginnings. See further...]

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October, initiating free trade in gold for the first time in the history of the People's Republic of China. But its members are limited to 108 institutions, including producers, processors and traders of gold and gold products, plus commercial banks.

Some SGE members have been increasing their stocks in anticipation of heightened demand once the market is open to individual investors, said an industry insider who declined to be identified. "These investors have been very active, taking every possible chance to buy in."

...strong growth is expected in domestic gold demand over the long term, Li said, as individual incomes continue to increase.

...the potential for individual investment in gold as an option to currencies to maintain private wealth is almost unlimited.

Uncertainties about worldwide political stability and economic growth have strengthened this function of gold, Li Xisheng said (an analyst with Qilu Securities).

For thousands of years, the Chinese have traditionally saved gold... If the government does decide to allow individual investors into the sector, the landscape of the entire gold industry worldwide could change completely.
--(END ChinaDaily EXCERPTS)--

As China makes steps to further liberalize its gold market for individual participation, isn't it fair to say that there would be nothing quite like a little inflation to help subtly spur or inspire the population greatly in that direction? In one neat stroke the world of gold is changed, as is, might I add, the fate of the dollar as a significant reserve currency.

Read the prevailing winds, take your position, then sit back and relax, or better still, continue forward -- with far less anxiety than your neighbors about the future.

Call Centennial today.

This was long, but I am sure you will be rewarded for your diligence to read it through and work to understand the current drift of things.

R.

TownCrier

(10/27/2003; 13:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 110917)

In the meanwhile...

Can you not see how the Chinese Government can dangle this looming prospect of opening their gold market to the public (the actual day for which is yet to be determined or disclosed) as a powerful tool to generate political favors from the West... as a pedulum that could as easily swing toward alignment with euroland or toward dollarland. Which position will win: real gold in an open market, or a continuation of gold suppression schemes? Place your bets.

R.

Basil

(10/27/2003; 14:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110918)

Scary Gold Market

***** $403.4 *****

A very high gold price will mean the monetary system most of us have lived under is unravelling.That in turn suggests turmoil in jobs,prices,world trade,foreign policy,gov't intrusion,etc.
Conceivably TEOTWAWKI--but more probably a groaning through until improves thing.
PM's and other hard assets well secured are but one form of insurance to assist one thru the storm.But it will not be pleasant for any and definitely not to be hoped for.

Shanti

(10/27/2003; 14:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110919)

***********$395,5***********

"Scarriest" would be when accumulated GOLD becomes so extreem in value, that even thinking of GOLD already attracts masses of (scary) people. In other words, when in need of several permanent armed bodyguards.

"Scariest" is the opposite of "Happiest" both emotional but still 2 sides of the same GOLDEN coin. Lets hope for balance.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti.

cockerel1

(10/27/2003; 14:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 110920)

****394.70****

The thing that scares me the most about the upcoming transittion, is that there are children under the age of eighteen who, unsuspectingly, will inherit this mess.

They had absolutely no part in creating it, but will have to deal with it and will have no template to draw on.

Life can be cruel at times, but to burden the future generation with this....?

Dollar Bill

(10/27/2003; 15:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 110921)

*>*

Doug Nolan sez;

"...As long as they are issuing long-term debt to purchase newly issued long-term debt, we can have a significant increase in system credit growth that does not register in the money supply components. Contemporary money and credit are similar during these liquidity booms when risk assets are in keen demand.

However, I would not concur that there is NO difference between money and credit. Money expansion is especially dangerous as there is basically insatiable demand for the perceived safety, store of nominal value, and liquidity of "money." Contemporary money is credit, but there are myriad credit instruments that have risk and liquidity attributes inapplicable for "money." But since these debt instruments (such as junk bonds) have appreciated risk profiles, over-issuance would generally not get completely out of hand because the marketplace demand would falter � the market would appreciate that these bonds were becoming too risky because of over-issuance. GSE debt is an unusual � especially dangerous animal � because it can be issued in unlimited quantities with NO impact on its AAA rating, perceived risk, or market demand. Hence, agency debt issuance (as we are witnessing) can go to great excess, impacting systemic risk much more than junk bonds ever could. If the perceived safety and liquidty of agency debt comes into question, there's a big problem.

Thanks for reading and commenting.
doug"

VanRip

(10/27/2003; 16:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110922)

*****392.80******

The scariest thing about this market to me is that as the gold market strengthens, I suspect the government 's will to punish gold and gold share holders somehow will also strengthen. Some drastic measures along these lines may already have been planned.

yellowmetal

(10/27/2003; 16:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110923)

POG contest

$ 398.50 Concerned about the Fed. Goverment imposing a Sales Tax on Precious Metal (Bullion). Comments appreciated.

Joanne

(10/27/2003; 16:25:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110924)

(No Subject)

*****$404.0*****

Well here's what I bin a see'n
On our gold they'll be taken a lien
We won't give 'em a dime
(But in case I do time)
What prison will all of you be in?

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 16:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110925)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- Halloween POG CONTEST UPDATE

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of 16:25:30 (Denver time) MONDAY 10/27/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918)

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906)

**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894)

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915)

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913)
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919)

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914)

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920)

**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922)

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901)

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903)

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896
===
WOWSERS -- "yawl" is ona "ROLL" !!!
Keep them coming !
<;-)

Dollar Bill

(10/27/2003; 16:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 110926)

*>*............+

**385***

What spooks me is the extent of the manipulation of all markets.

I didnt like chirac because he was willing to deal with the devil (saddam) for the sake of the euro rather than see the future of saddams sons as the threat they really were.
But for golds sake, it was a hopeful sign that
him and germany were taking a stand for power to make the euro replace the dollar. They choose the devil and tried to enlist Russia and China and other oil states in thier
trading oil for euro sake at the expense of the US and any hope of freedom from saddam's sons and whomever joined the budding euro for oil group. (iran, iraq, whomever).

Luckily for the world, that power grouping has been crushed.
The self interest of the german/french blinded them to the present and future tyranny that was about to become
really powerful. Saddam and Iraq would have in effect, controlled the euro reserve currency. A disaster of unimaginable proportions. ( dont expect I will hear that in the democratic debates !)

How this fits in the scariest aspects of the gold bull market response, is that the dollar has survived that challenge, and the euro boys are back in line, and Bush is sticking it to them by continueing to run deficeits and thereby insureing that the dollars value will stay low and the euro will be high and that will keep the world from running to it. They are losing thier industries also, but they dont have reserve currency status so they cannot weather it like the US can. The global currency is the future, built around the US dollar, and since the euro guys lost that fight, and have been selling gold, and the swiss are capitulating by selling gold, they must have agreed that the future contains an eventual law that, like what happened in the thirties, gold will become illegal.
That to me is the scariest.

Of course I am no oracle, just guessing for contest fun.

Sprout

(10/27/2003; 16:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 110927)

*****372.50*****

"Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market?
That this current game being played just goes on and on and on and on and on and on .......

Dollar Bill

(10/27/2003; 17:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110928)

*>*.........+

Remeber what the china premier said recently and it was on the forum? He made some disbaraging comment about the euro being too powerful.
I think the Bush folks must have convinced him of what almost happened if france and germany were successful in stopping the US from taking the world saving action in Iraq.

21mabry

(10/27/2003; 17:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110929)

Sales Tax

Yellow Metal, A bullion dealer in Tenn. U.S.A fought a fight with federal and state goverments over this issue and others.You will have to reaserch the web yourself as he is a bullion dealer I do not want to mention other dealers out of respect for the host.21

Dollar Bill

(10/27/2003; 18:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110930)

*>*.........+

Warren Buffett said this.

"...The press release says Buffett proposes issuing "import certificates" to all U.S. exporters in an amount equal to the dollar value of their exports. Each exporter would sell the import certificates to other parties - exporters abroad or domestic importers - wanting to get goods into the U.S. To import $1 million of goods, for example, an importer would need import certificates that were the byproduct of $1 million of exports."

Trying to replace gold?

cyberbat

(10/27/2003; 18:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110931)

@ Yellowmetal

Yellowmetal,
Let me alay your fears about a tax on gold. You have something much more scarrier to worry about! It is called CONFISCATION!! Surely you don't think Uncle Sammy will sit idly by while a few gold bugs clean up do you?
I can see the future headlines now. "Terrorist now trading in gold- Congress moves to protect us all from the terrorist". Do not fear the terrorist, fear the one's who are going around making the accusations such as in the Salem witch debacle a century or two ago.
Everyone needs to be planning an evacuation route when talk starts going around on CNBC and the congress begins to make accusations about "Gold horders are causing problems with a recovering economy".
That will become your moment of truth!! Liquidate at any price and become a Warren Buffett-----hold cash, but not just any cash; Euros will do just fine because they can't outlaw other nations' money. I firmly believe that currency speculation will also be outlawed in the good ole' USA just like the bananna republics do when everyone begins to realize that their currency is going belly up.
As Black the Blade says; interesting times are ahead!

(10/27/2003; 18:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110932)

Towncrier, Dollar Bill, et al

On Warren Buffet's comment that there's not much out there in the world of investments.......

There is an ancient oriental curse that goes something like this: "May you forever live in a 1% world." And nothing could be more onerous. Yet, this is the contango with which each and every investor -- including Warren Buffet -- must live. See it as a warning,but don't be way-laid. No currency, Mr. Buffett, has performed as well as gold -- and I think (with proper obeisance to your Nebraska born, hard-money father), this is something of which you are fully aware. Gold in the meanwhile has appreciated over 20% year over year. All of which is covered in the upcoming News & Views -- in our USAGOLD~Centennial Precious Metals Survey of Investments. Make sure you wait until after Wednesday to request your information packet in order to receive the latest edition of our widely anticipated and read Quarterly Review. And yes, Mr. Buffet, we will overnight a copy to you.

glennh10

(10/27/2003; 19:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 110933)

***** 399.9 *****

My biggest fear about the market and the dollar "system" is that for all that's been discussed here as far as preparation, from all the fine contributors, that something comes to pass that was overlooked, or could not have been avoided. Call it anxiety, for lack of a better word.

HOWEVER, I also sense a feeling of comfort and accomplishment for preparations that have been made; that even just a bit of gold is better than none. As the saying goes (paraphrased, author unknown), "more people have been hurt by not having gold than by having some" (no matter what).

Cheers.

The CoinGuy

(10/27/2003; 20:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 110934)

(No Subject)

An adage we pay homage to here in Omaha. "A trader never reveals his book until the last chapter is written."

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 22:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 110935)

FINALLY, I can now go mining at the Silver Princess again !! <;-)

http://www.doi.gov/mill.htmlLOOK Sir Black Blade -- You will be very busy in the near future !!
and, Thanks to my ol'e mining partner for these snips, -- there will be some new stories coming next Spring from the Wiz!
---
U.S. Department of the Interior
Office of the Secretary
For Immediate Release: Oct. 10, 2003
Interior Department Corrects Erroneous
Mill Site Interpretation
LAS VEGAS-Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management Rebecca Watson announced today that the Department of the Interior is issuing a final rule to improve regulations on locating, recording and maintaining mining claims or sites. The final rule includes a provision, based upon a new Solicitor's opinion, that will restore the department's traditional interpretation of the mining law's mill site provisions.
"The Solicitor's opinion and the final rule remove unnecessary and burdensome requirements for mine operations while fully protecting the environment," Watson said. "This action will also encourage a reliable supply of the critical strategic minerals that we need to support our way of life, the economy and our national security."

Watson said that Deputy Solicitor Roderick E. Walston signed an opinion this week, concurred in by Secretary Gale A. Norton, concluding that the Mining Law does not categorically limit the number of mill sites for each mining claim. The Walston opinion reinstates the department's prior longstanding administrative practice and interpretation of the Mining Law.

Watson also noted that the uncertainty created by the 1997 opinion contributed to a virtual standstill of mining operations on public lands. The 1997 opinion limited mine operations to only five acres of surface lands to support mining each 20-acre parcel of mineral deposits, regardless of the technical, economic or geological necessities of a mine.

"Although we can't isolate just one factor when analyzing the mining industry, we believe the 1997 opinion had a chilling effect and contributed to a significant decline in exploration for new minerals and new mine development," Watson said. "Our data show that exploration is down 57 percent and mine development has dropped 54 percent. And according to the U.S. Geological Survey, from 1999 to 2001, metal mining jobs in America declined by 21.6 percent."

"The loss of high paying jobs the mining industry provides is felt particularly hard in local communities in states where hardrock mining is key to their economy," Watson said.

Mill sites are the lands on which facilities and other infrastructure necessary to operate a mine are placed. The facilities and activities on mill sites include crushing units, warehouses, equipment maintenance buildings, water treatment facilities, ore and overburden storage and air-quality monitoring stations.
- more -

Before 1997, the Interior Department had interpreted and administered the Mining Law to allow mine operations to use the number of mill sites needed to support operations on the mining claims. As reaffirmed by the Deputy Solicitor's opinion, while a mine operation is not automatically entitled to a separate mill site for each mining claim, the operation is not limited to a single mill site for each mining claim if more than one mill site is necessary to successfully operate the mine.

The Mining Law provides for two types of mining claims to obtain public lands for mining valuable mineral deposits: lode and placer mining claims. In addition, the Mining Law provides for mill sites on nonmineral lands to be used to support mining and processing of minerals from the mining claims. The law prescribes the size for each type of claim. Each lode or placer claim must not exceed about 20 acres in size and each mill site must not exceed 5 acres in size. The Mining Law does not place a categorical limit on the number of lode claims, placer claims or mill sites a mine operator may use. The Bureau of Land Management regulates the number of mill sites through another provision of the Mining Law.

"These hardrock mines help to provide the necessary minerals for basic components to develop our computers, toasters, telephones, aircraft, spacecraft, satellites, automobiles and a variety of other things that have become essential to the American way of life," Watson said. "Without sufficient land to support these mines, an operating mine is technologically and economically infeasible."

Watson noted that under safeguards adopted by this administration, all mine operations are subject to comprehensive bonding requirements to ensure funds are available to cover all environmental liabilities and to ensure that all mine sites are fully restored. All plans of operations for mining on the public lands must meet strict federal and state environmental standards.

On Dec. 31, 2001, the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management implemented new provisions in 43 CFR subpart 3809 that regulate surface use for hardrock mining operations on the public lands. Those provisions have strengthened the BLM's ability to protect the environment and the public lands' resources and ensure that the mining operators, not the nation's taxpayers, bear the cost of reclaiming mined lands.

The Interior Department sent the final rule to the Federal Register today. The final rule will be published in the Federal Register next week and will allow mine operations to use or occupy only that amount of mill site acreage that is necessary for efficient and reasonably compact mining operations.
---
AND
---
U.S. Department of the Interior
Mill Site Location and Patenting
On Friday, October 10, Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management Rebecca Watson announced that the Department of the Interior is issuing a final rule to improve regulations on locating, recording and maintaining mining claims or sites. The final rule includes a provision, based upon a new Solicitor's opinion, which will restore the Department's traditional interpretation of the mining law's mill site provisions.

Deputy Solicitor Roderick E. Walston has signed an opinion, concurred in by Secretary Gale A. Norton, that concludes the Mining Law does not categorically limit the number of mill sites for each mining claim. The Walston opinion reinstates the department's prior longstanding administrative practice and interpretation of the Mining Law.

The uncertainty created by the 1997 opinion contributed to a virtual standstill of mining operations on public lands. The 1997 opinion limited mine operations to only five acres of surface lands to support mining each 20-acre parcel of mineral deposits, regardless of the technical, economic or geological necessities of a mine.

The Mining Law provides for two types of mining claims to obtain public lands for mining valuable mineral deposits: lode and placer mining claims. In addition, the Mining Law provides for mill sites on nonmineral lands to be used to support mining and processing of minerals from the mining claims. The law prescribes the size for each type of claim. Each lode or placer claim must not exceed about 20 acres in size and each mill site must not exceed 5 acres in size. The Mining Law does not place a categorical limit on the number of lode claims, placer claims or mill sites a mine operator may use. The Bureau of Land Management regulates the number of mill sites through another provision of the Mining Law.

Under safeguards adopted by this administration, all mine operations are subject to comprehensive bonding requirements to ensure funds are available to cover all environmental liabilities and to ensure that all mine sites are fully restored. All plans of operations for mining on the public lands must meet strict federal and state environmental standards.
===
<;-)
AND you all thought that the low market price for PRECIOUS metals was the cause of the reduction in exploration and mine output !
NAW, it was the Mill Site acreage !
Which come first ? The finding of the profitable ore, or the finding of the mill sites ?
SILLY Government regulators !
<;-)

Gonlyold

(10/27/2003; 22:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110936)

******376.7******

My biggest fear on the gold issue is that TPTB will not be able to keep the price of gold suppressed. Does that mean that I'm anti-POG increase? Not at all. I hope it goes way up there. What this means, is that it's dangerous to be right when TPTB are wrong (or loose control). No telling what wrath they will unleash when they find out they're not able to manipulate the markets. Keep your food pantry stocked.

Gonlyold

(10/27/2003; 23:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 110937)

Purity of Silver

http://educate-yourself.org/cs/csarticle12.shtmlWhile searching for information on colloidal silver, I ran across this article. Although it deals with the purity of silver as it relates to colloidal silver, I found it interesting as it clarifys the 99.9% vs. the .999 fine listing of silver (as in silver rounds).

Here's an excerpt.

"The total allowable impurities in 99.9% (.999 fine) silver is 1000 ppm or 1 part in 1000. These impurities and their maximums are 1) Copper, 800 ppm, 2) Lead, 250 ppm, 3) Iron, 200 ppm, and 4) Bismuth, 10 ppm...sometimes small things make a big difference. 99.99% silver (.9999 fine) has total allowable impurities of 100 ppm of the same metals in the same ratios, and costs (in wire form) between $50-$90 above the spot price of silver. 99.999% silver (.99999 fine) has total allowable impurities of 10 ppm, and in wire form costs about $250 above the spot price. 99.9999% silver, in wire form, costs more than gold and is very difficult to find commercially."

slingshot

(10/27/2003; 23:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110938)

Midas Crusade

The sights and sounds of a large army on the move is awesome. Horse hoves beating the ground combined with movement of shield and sword produced a cadence at which the column moved along the road. Brisk at first, slowing as the day passed by. The army of Goldbugs made their way eastward.Trees dotted the counrtyside of rolling hills covered with grass, that now turned brown with the coming of fall. Perigrin falcons glided on the air currents above and their call turned many a head skyward to watch them play against the blue sky. The weather was good with warm days and mild nights that made their travel of five days most bearable. As open country turned more wooded Cougar, started to feel more at home. He knew what was before them.
The great Althean forest. There the trees were giants over two hundred feet high and when Sir M.K. and Sir Black Blade crest the last of the hills, they stopped the column.
The trees were so large that it appeared to be be a solid wall as the sun reflected off the yellow bark. The branches high above the ground was like a roof that covered a great castle. Cougar rode forward to the front and come to the side of Sir Black Blade. With a large grin he said, Welcome the the Althean forest my friends. Let us be wary of the giants who live within.
Of course there were no giants,but Cougar could not resist
having some fun.
He rode ahead and soon stopped at the beginning of the woods.
When the Goldbugs reached the woods Cougar had company.
The scouts that were sent out a few days before had just arrived at the same time as Cougar. They told him many riders were about and that one scouting party was unaccounted for.
Soon after the Goldbugs haulted at the Althean forest.
The information was told to Sir M.K. and after a short conference, decided to continue into the forest. It would be safe amoungst the great trees. And when the sunlight dimed they made camp for the night.
Firewood for campfires was plentiful as the great limbs broke off as the trees grew in height. The flickering lights against the trees was enhanced by their light colored bark.
Then the Giants came in the night. A few Goldbugs had seen large shadows move between the trees.
Cougar had seen them before. The forward part of the camp sprang to arms and as more Goldbugs move about more Giants appeared. Cougar sat on the ground and held back his laughter and only when things were getting out of hand began to shout, Stand sill and you will see your enemy.
One by one each Goldbug stopped moving and the Giants stopped moving also. Then Cougar went over to a large campfire and waved his arms in the air. A Giants shadow upon the large tree in the distance did the same movements.

Here is your Giants!, he said and chuckled.

One by one each Goldbug began to laugh. It took sometime but even Gandalf, who had done battle with Giants before, started to laugh.

Very funny, said Sir Black Blade to Cougar.

Before the passage of the forest was finished, the Goldbugs would find something very unpleasant.

Slingshot---------------------<>

Black Blade

(10/27/2003; 23:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110939)

Gandy � Affirmation of Mining Law � Warren Buffett

The 5 acre mining parcel decision to include mining operations and mill siting was just one of several tactics used under former Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbit to close down mining in the U.S. to appease anti-mining interests. It was an absurd interpretation of course but was designed to shutdown mining, particularly in the state of Nevada where precious metals mining is the state's second largest employer and source of revenue behind the gaming industry (gambling). The Clinton-Gore administration had to appease special interests for securing votes from these interests who oppose the extraction and exploitation of natural resources. This was particularly interesting considering that the mining industry is the major and sometimes the only industry for several small towns and cities in the intermountain west and Basin and range where liberal politics are not usually successful.

Similarly it was used as punishment as well. In the state of Utah where Clinton-Gore came in third place many state controlled lands (including the state's education land grant lands) were taken away and compiled into National Monuments such as the Escalante Staircase area that is essentially a desert with little value except for the large deposits of "low sulfur coal" that has only one real competitor in Indonesia under control by the infamous Lippo Bank that contributed several million dollars to the Clinton-Gore campaigns.

The EPA also made other changes such as requiring that mining companies had to place the removal of waste rock into the "toxic waste" category that in effect launched the mining industry from a low end polluter into the top of the list as a major polluter which of course was ridiculous but did have the PR effect for special interests to make some absurd claims. Let's face it, in the earth's topsoil and bedrock are elements that contain toxic materials when refined such as lead, mercury, arsenic, etc. But they occur in combination with other elements to form rocks and minerals that by themselves are essentially benign and are very common over the entire surface of the earth. This standard if applied to every industry would have had the same effect but special interests thrive under different political administrations.

Politics is an interesting animal and the people involved are not necessarily interested in the science but rather on what useful purpose it would serve for their nefarious self interests. Politicians in my opinion are essentially corrupt sociopaths hell bent on personal power and wealth without regard to the best interests of the country or its people but that is often the nature of the beast.

On a side note � Who knows what Warren Buffet has as far as "currencies". He never reveals much about Berkshire's holdings even in the annual reports and those "currencies" may possibly even include precious metals (aside from the 130 million plus ounces of silver). George Soros said the same thing publicly but even made the statement that his shorting of the US dollar and buying of foreign currencies "including gold". Obviously he thinks of gold as a "currency" and it may very well be the same thought held by Warren Buffett as well only that he did not specify what currencies he was investing in and whether or not that included the "currencies" of gold and silver. After all, many including the well heeled and high net worth investors consider precious metals a "currency" to hedge against the depreciation of the US dollar. So if Berkshire Hathaway had holdings of more gold and silver in the portfolio I certainly would not be surprised.

- Black Blade

Goldendome

(10/27/2003; 23:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110940)

Sony Corp. cuttin 'dem bones

Sony Corp. just announced the worldwide layoff of 20,000 of it's 150,000 souls over the next 3 years. As the once world leader in consumer electronics, now finds itself running behind many other companies in technology and inovative new products.

More bones to Black Blade's growing pile.

Gandalf the White

(10/27/2003; 23:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110941)

OK -- as it looks a little slow tonight -- HERE is a bedtime story ! <;-)

These two "sourdoughs" were going to look at an old mining claim owned by a little old lady that lived alone in a small town in the hills. OF course they took their Mining Exploration vehicle -- a Black 1973 Model 76 baby Limo. with an 801 cu. in. engine and an extra air conditioner in the trunk, they had no problem following the hand drawen map, fording streams and crashing through brush and over old rutty Forest Service roads to the site of the little old lady's claims !

One of these two, was a fit and trim youngster, and the other (guess who) was an old, BUT wise, wide person. They finally arrived at the site, having stopped in the scorching heat, and "broken a number of interesting rocks" along the "trail". The entrance to the mine was a nice looking portal and a small flow of cool fresh air was coming out of the portal into the bright HOT afternoon. The two grabed their gear and headed into the portal. The opening soon got restricted and the wider of the two became the follower. He did not get to choose the direction at the next "Wye" and followed the youngster. The rocks along the way became VERY INTERESTING as the color of the adit became darker blue, until the two entered a stoped out dome room. With their two lights they started to inspect the walls of the dome. Millions of sparkly dark blue reflections were shining back at them. WOWSERS, the MOTHER LODE ! Suddenly, the sound of a whirl of wings was heard as their lights reached the top of the dome !
WOWSERS -- We had found the home of Giant Albino Bat and his clan.
Silver is your game ?, GAB, YES ?
<;-)

slingshot

(10/28/2003; 00:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 110942)

*******$387.1*******

The scariest aspect of the Gold Market is that its achievement to new heights will bring about the many fears we have discussed at this forum. The reality is, we will not know if our preparation was enough to weather the storm until the storm hits.

Slingshot-----------------<>

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 00:19:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110943)

Halloween POG Guessing CONTEST UPDATE !!

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of five minutes AFTER MIDNIGHT 00:05 (Denver time) Tuesday 10/27/03 = THREE DAYS before the entry DEADLINE !

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906

**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942)

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936)

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927
===

The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested an "All Hallows" POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize an Argentino "5 Peso" goldpiece (0.2334 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach the eve of Halloween.
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes twelve times (MIDNIGHT 24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 30th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $400.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $400.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market !

===
"TRICK or TREAT ?" !!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 00:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110944)

OOPS !

PS --- YES, I know that TUESDAY is 10/28/03 !!
<;-)

slingshot

(10/28/2003; 02:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110945)

Halloween

To all lurkers This is a special contest for me.
Once again my gratitude goes out to those at USAGOLD.
I have the chance to win Gold On my Birthday. Ever wonder why Slingshot was a bit left of center? Now you know. So, my fellow Goldbugs I invite you to join in a off center Birthday Party.

May the Best Goldbug Win. <>
Slingshot----------------------<><><>

Topaz

(10/28/2003; 02:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110946)

****$365.75****

Scary huh!
The most scary aspect of current Gold events is the potential for a marked decrease in PoG on the back of a rocketing Dollar, due largely to a massive bout of Deflation.
A direct result of the paper pricing mechanism and an up-coming buying op we thought we'd never see again. PoG may well plummet, but will the Physical be available at the lower price?

slingshot

(10/28/2003; 03:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110947)

Yellowmetal

YellowMetal Gold before had a sales tax and I'm sure in the future it will be imposed again. As far as confiscation I am positive they will issue a law on the ban on LEGAL GUNS and confiscation of same, before the taking of precious metals.
Have to take the little nasties out of the hands of the peasants. Although it may be peasants with some above average IQ in this matter. As before I do not like the "C" word and I feel Imminent Domain has been abused to further the causes of the rich and powerful.That is for the good of the many and not the few. As it was intended for. For all intent and purposes the word confiscation applies to GOLD/GUNS/ LAND and any other material that may benefit the FEDERAL STATE in the increase of its power. It is inseparable. So, Sir YellowMetal being a Goldbug you have become a GeoPolital,Multi Faceted,Revolutionist.

Keep the Faith.
Slingshot-----------------<>

Cuda

(10/28/2003; 03:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110948)

****$389.7****

The scariest aspect about the gold market is if the government lost control of there grip on gold, and voted to add new tax laws to buying, selling, and holding gold to get in on the gold bull charge.

Possible nightmare of new taxes:

Sales tax - Well thats not new.
Profit tax - We will all gain to profit.
Property tax - Gold came from the earth and we hold it.
Luxury tax - So nice and shiny, why not?
Quantity tax - Because we have more then what can go around.

I am sure they could come up with some silly new tax laws.

Who knows what they would(could) do.

IMHO

slingshot

(10/28/2003; 04:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 110949)

Higher Place

We got to get to a higher place.
And we gotta leave right now.
Before that river, takes us down.
We have to find somewhere that's dry.

We got to get to a higher place.
And I hope we arrive together.
We got to get to higher place.
If we wanna, survive the weather.

Tom Petty
Slingshot----------------<>

slingshot

(10/28/2003; 06:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110950)

Black Bade

Msg#110939Thanks you Good Knight for bringing that subject to light.

In comparison to the byproducts of mining (mostly heavy metal) that are monitored closely, the contamination by pesticides and petroleum products into our drainage and water systems is enormous. Residential runnoff is horrendous and is most likely to be located next to a water source. Our highways are traveled by leaking oil pans and transmissions and the drops are washed away from the road surface directly into the vegetation and drain ditches. Does the department of transportation have oil water separators at each runoff? So how can they turn a blind eye on one source of pollution that expands(petrol) over a wide surface as to one that is centraly located(heavey metal).
I agree the byproducts of mining are dangerous but I believe that the dispersion of any such contaminant is greater than at any mine site.

Slingshot------------------<>

pilgrims_gold

(10/28/2003; 06:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 110951)

***** $386.00 ******

The scariest thought about this gold market is do I have enough physical Gold and Silver to survive with my family if some terrorist finds a way to deliver a nuclear device to the heart of NYC!

Spartacus

(10/28/2003; 07:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110952)

Mr. Khodorkovsky

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmhttp://www.chaos-onomics.com
morning thoughts, Oct 27

--Oligarchs of the world are a bit nervous this morning reading of the weekend arrest of Russian oil tycoon, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Whether this arrest is an attempt to punish his alleged failure to pay tax, or a political arrest to silence a supporter of Putin's opposition remains to be seen. Alternative explanations for his arrest might include concerns over the merger talks between Yukos, ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco. I also remember a few weeks ago when the "Russia to price oil in Euros" idea was making the rounds that Yukos was quite vocal in opposing Putin's pro-Euro view. Yukos' CFO, while speaking on the oil in Euros issue said, Governments can have all these nice conversations, but this is commerce. To which sentiment Putin might be responding, companies can have all these nice conversations, but this is jail. We will see if the Russian oil in Euros story is revived while Mr. Khodorkovsky is on ice.--

CoBra(too)

(10/28/2003; 08:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 110953)

Barrick's latest Quarter - No Change in Hedgebook!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031027/minerals_barrick_earns_4.htmlAfter earning a measly 7 cents per share, the company's hedge book is under water to the tune of 1.2 Billion dollars. As the new CEO explained the company won't spend any more of the shareholders money to cover its hedges, he'd rather have the market solve the problem.

And the market will solve the problem. I can assure Greg Wilkins, Barrick's successor to Oliphant as CEO, that the market will solve the problem; It's called in-solve-ncy.cb2

Frosty

(10/28/2003; 08:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110954)

****$383.90****

The "scariest Aspect" of this current bull market in gold is that it is signaling a change of economic seasons just like the golden color of the leaves on the trees before the dark winter days set in.

goldenpeace

(10/28/2003; 08:47:04 MDT - Msg ID: 110955)

Contest.....*******$386.9**********

Scariest thing haiku:

If gold derivatives blow,
can finance houses
remain standing?

Bowing
goldenpeace

Clink!

(10/28/2003; 08:53:16 MDT - Msg ID: 110956)

@ Lady Joanne

That was the scariest limerick I have ever read !
C!

1340cc

(10/28/2003; 09:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 110957)

*****$365.00*****

The scary thing for me is knowing that the Big Boys are going to ,and are as I write this(down $4.50), knock the leggs out from under gold before this weekend. They want to undermine the importance of the big gold and silver conference in New Orleans that is being held there.

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 09:48:50 MDT - Msg ID: 110958)

Sir Topaz

Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946
===
Attn: Sir Topaz -- Someone stole your nickle !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 10:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110959)

Thanks for the Link Sir CoBra(too) !! BUT, I have a question ---

CoBra(too) (10/28/03; 08:19:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110953)
Barrick's latest Quarter - No Change in Hedgebook!
--- the company's hedge book is under water to the tune of 1.2 Billion dollars. As the new CEO explained the company won't spend any more of the shareholders money to cover its hedges, he'd rather have the market solve the problem. --
And the market will solve the problem. I can assure Greg Wilkins, Barrick's successor to Oliphant as CEO --
===
With cash of only $1 Billion, and as the POG INCREASES, do you think that the change from an "Elephant" to an "Ostrich" was a good one ?
<;-)

1340cc

(10/28/2003; 10:03:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110960)

Sir Topaz

Sorry for bumping into your heels. I would have gone lower had I read you "guess".

CoBra(too)

(10/28/2003; 10:06:07 MDT - Msg ID: 110961)

@ 1340cc - Re N.O. Conference

Will you be there too? I'm just packing for the long trip and think it will be worthwile.
I will also be gone for some time as I will visit some mines in Nevada and B.C.

Finally, I'm just smiling at the ever more pathetic attempts
to "bop" the POG. King Canute couldn't stop the tide and the PTB will soon run for the hills as the incoming Tsunami is manifesting its brutal force.

Got Gold - as Ari says - and will miss you all until late November - cb2

CoBra(too)

(10/28/2003; 10:12:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110962)

Change from Oliphant to Ostrich!

Touche', my friend Gandy.

In-solve-ncy may turn out to be Ostrich's quicksand.

(:>) cb2

NEMO me impune lacessit

(10/28/2003; 10:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 110963)

*****394.5*****

A short Dilemma

The Gold Price went up that Morning
like so many Mornings before.
It was due to Warfare and Mourning.
Decisions of Government Core

But the Goldbug was happy as ever.
Went down to the Cellar below.
Regarded himself as clever,
when counting the Physicals glow.

He counted them happy and proud - so
one could hear him when softly he sang.
He saw a Flare through the Window
��.
But he never heard the Bang.

nemo

digger

(10/28/2003; 10:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 110964)

Your Expertise is Requested

I am a new member of your forum and I would like to express my appreciation as I for one would like to learn more as I too believe that GOLD is about to Go the moon Alice..The honeymooners is still funny. Gold is the only currency since creation that is still a must in anyones portfolio. Speaking of that, I am a client of a Canadian Bank Brokerage firm and wanting a bit of this action I went in and requested an instrument that would maximize my return on a 6k bet. Well, on 9/29/03,per contract was at $520 the 12/03 Comex gold market would have to be at $410 plus the option expires 11/24/03 for my bet to pay off. I had to open an account which takes 24 hours to be approved which is was however, on 09/30/03 the market had already closed so my order was placed on the morning of 10/01/03 and as explained to me the volitile market Gold had gone up so the market was $600 per contract that morning with the same closing amount of $410 by 11/24/03 for my options to pay off. I asked the broker what is her commission for this transaction? I was told $80 plus the exchange fees would work out to be about $140 which was ok by me. The statement came in and her commission was now $400 plus the fees. Boy, was I mad, however, since I am a commission sales person I firmly told her my position after she told me that her commission is $40 per contract coming in and out. Now, since I have worked in the automotive industry and I know the methods of maximizing gross I had better come up with a good one or I lose this one. Iexplained that since I asked what her commission was $80 I was not prepared to negotiate her fees as I am of the old school and I still believe in TRUSTING and holding someone to what is told to me as well of the cost had fluctuated to $600 per contract from the $520 in only 2 days I said I did not check this as I trusted you to relay the correct pricing..A few hours later she phoned and gave me the news that Head Office had agreed with her request as she had not given her client all the information she thought she had. I had to agree to $100 which I did. Now, gentleman and ladies I now know I was had. Forgive the preamble, but automotive dealers know about double dipping and she tried for a big commission PLUS PLUS ...Can anyone in the know confirm what the actual market was on that day as I believe in my heart that the market was not at 600 for those terms. By the way, I am hot on this market as I use my gut and not what is being told to us in the newspapers and TV land as these industries are owned by only a few individuals who control a big percentage of the money.
God bless the individuals and companies that are out there to assist the uninformed. To the others out there, unfortunately the majority, your wealth will disappear somehow as greed is the evil and a reasonable profit is not. ***$700.00***by 11/07/03
Regards to what was and what is to be.

Greg

Waverider

(10/28/2003; 10:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 110965)

CB2

You have a safe and wonderful trip. I will miss the new Orleans conference as I head up to the Arctic later this week. If you are through Vancouver in November however, please allow me to treat you to a beer and get the scoop on the NO conference. Maybe Sir Gandalf might like to join for a beer also? Cheers,

Waverider

The Hoople

(10/28/2003; 10:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 110966)

***** $392.5 *****

The economy lately has been whistling by the graveyard. Too many scary aspects to list- although Fannie, Freddie, HUD, GSE's, pension funds, and trillions of derivatives are a beginning. There is no viable paper alternative to gold ownership.

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 10:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110967)

WELCOME Sir Digger !!

May I suggest that you pick up a phone and give USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals a FREE CALL ! They can solve all your problems and you will not be gambling with those type of "used paper dealers" !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 10:51:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110968)

WOWSERS, both Lady Waverider & Sir CB2

Just name the place and time !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 10:56:22 MDT - Msg ID: 110969)

OK Sir Digger -- Now you do the conversion from US$ to Can$ !!!!

10/1/03 COMEX Dec 03 Contact
Open $386.2 High $387.4 low $383.6 Last $385.1
Settle $385.0 CHANGE -$1.1
<;-)

Paper Avalanche

(10/28/2003; 11:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 110971)

The history of misinformation - then and now

When our nation was conceived, those who espoused the use of physical gold as a means of savings, the settlement of debts and the vehicle for commerce were regailed for their adherance to the principles of freedom and independence.

Today people who do so are categorized as basement dwelling, gloom and doom types who pray for the end of the world so that they can make a profit.

When and how did this transition take place? Why was it ever allowed (or forced) to be ingrained in the public psyche? Are those that present the latter notion hapless victims of generations of propoganda or propogandists themselves seeking to undermine a groundswell of interest in physical gold.

Therein lies my question - to everyone who would posit the notion here or elsewhere that all physical gold advocates are continually hoping for armageddon, is this a function of ignorance or is it the means to a desired end?

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

Waverider

(10/28/2003; 11:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 110972)

CB2

Roger - sounds as though we're on - I shall be back also on November 4th, so shall be in contact next week. Cheers and a safe journey!

Waverider

BTW - Sir Randy - maybe CBs last post with contact information should self-destruct?

cockerel1

(10/28/2003; 11:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110973)

General comment of interest!

Winter is definitely approaching.

Here in Central Alberta, temperatures are way below normal and no abatement in site.(-5C)

There is a forecast of snow, up to four inches, over the next twenty four hours, and more before the weekend.

There is lots of activity in the O&G business. Employment is good and there is a shortage of tradespeople.

Furnaces are going on right now for the winter and that means we can expect increases in natural gas prices.

Canadian $ is "riding high" and heading higher (methinks $0.80 before end of year) and there is even talk of 1 for 1 re: the U.S $ before 2005.

Basil

(10/28/2003; 12:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 110974)

Paper Avalanche ---Wishing For Armageddon

One shouldn't wish for Armageddon because we'll each make our individual appointment for Judgement soon enough.
(I need more time for repentance)

Meanwhile gold makes a good pillow and can always be left to one's heirs if the Lord tarries.

TownCrier

(10/28/2003; 12:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 110975)

Waverider, sure.

As it was directed to you, and with the request now coming from you, it would seem it has already served its purpose.

I think I hear the theme music to "Mission Impossible".

R.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/28/2003; 12:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 110976)

Your source for bullion to build your financial base.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/28/2003; 12:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 110977)

Page Update!

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 13:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110978)

COMEX GOLD data REPORT UPDATE !! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX GOLD Contract Data

10/20/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8 OI 175,879
10/24/03 Open $385.8 HIGH $393.0 low $384.3 SETTLE $389.2 CHANGE +$4.2 OI 183,300
10/27/03 Open $387.7 HIGH $389.0 low $386.0 SETTLE $388.2 CHANGE -$1.0 OI 183,756
10/28/03 Open $386.2 HIGH $388.7 low $383.0 SETTLE $383.4 CHANGE -$4.8
===
NOTE that the OI STILL keeps on INCREASING -----
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 13:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 110979)

TA TA TAAAAAAA ----"KING of the HILL" report !

On Tuesday 10/28/03 -- Sir DryWasher has relinquished the "HILL" to Sir Lothar of the Hill People !

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

Sir Lothar of the Hill People is now "KING of the HILL"!
<;-)

Lothar of the Hill People

(10/28/2003; 13:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 110980)

A slippery slope

Alas, the top of the hill is a slippery slope.

As the Hill People are wont to say, "It's not over til the emaciated bat squeeks".

steady

(10/28/2003; 14:15:39 MDT - Msg ID: 110981)

*******396.30******************

the scariest aspect of this gold market is that the skeletons in central banks vaults are starting to rattle the vaults. the golden key has been discovered and soon the skeletons will be exposing the central banks positions (how short they really are)
get you skelton prof currency now before the truth is discovered by other gremlins and goblins on planet earth.

Paper Avalanche

(10/28/2003; 14:48:32 MDT - Msg ID: 110982)

Not bad for a FOMC meeting day.....

If one goes back and looks at the performance of POG on days that the Federal Reserve meets, one normally finds that POG is slammed on the Tuesday of the meeting. Last thing in the world that you want to do is have the world gold market appear to question the directives of the omniscient Fed.

Today was as predictable as ever.

Things should start heading back up with Asian trading tonight.

PA

CoBra(too)

(10/28/2003; 14:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 110983)

BB - Will report upon return

Though it would have been nice to meet up with you as well.

There are some great delovepments awaiting fruitition in that area and I'm happy to have been able to support some of the more tenacious guys of the sage brush country.

Off to packing... cb2

PS: Lady W. - guess you've copied before "self-destruction" - a neat way to express displeasure.
So be it!

Waverider

(10/28/2003; 15:33:23 MDT - Msg ID: 110984)

CB2

...yes, I have copied the information, in fact I have it in 2 places....and please...my apologies...I did not intend to communicate displeasure at all, on the contrary - I shall leave a message for you next week. I was just being cautious considering a phone number was included and it would be on record here for eternity...or at least as long as we have internet and USAGOLD archives. I look forward with pleasure! Cheers,
Waverider

TownCrier

(10/28/2003; 16:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 110985)

One for the record -- FOMC Statement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20031028/default.htmOctober 28, 2003

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming, and the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr.

Dollar Bill

(10/28/2003; 16:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110986)

">"

Auerbach on commodities
"Commodities strike us today, not as an alternative asset play, but simply another symptom of a massive credit bubble. The drivers of demand are not Western businesses or end users, but managed futures funds and hedge fund managers who have been thematically investing in "reflation" plays, as well as being driven by short run price momentum. If it trades well, these funds get on the bandwagon. One can see this trend vividly in the record long speculative positions now being recorded in the copper and gold market futures.

If an adverse growth inflexion point is reached, as we suspect it might imminently, global growth will invariably falter and speculators will exit these long positions en masse (which is precisely what happened in 1993). That spells considerable price vulnerability in the absence of further physical demand. It will also undermine investment and speculative demand for commodities. Indeed, false economic pricing engendered by speculative purchases may actually have the ultimate effect of triggering gluts and thereby reverse recent gains made in the commodities complex. Already BHP has announced a significant expansion of copper production in its Escondida property in Chile based on an anticipated increase in underlying demand next year. Were this demand fail to materialise just as copper production was reaching full peak, it is not too difficult to envisage what would happen to underlying prices.

In a sense, the price rise in commodities, reflect not so much the emergence of robust global demand for "stuff" as it provides yet another manifestation of what the Fed's extraordinary credit bubble has wrought. The main players in these trades are the same kinds of players heavily involved in European bonds in 1993/94, (despite knowing nothing about the underlying liquidity of such instruments), the yen/dollar "carry trade", and the Russian GKO market in the late 1990s (during which foreigners at one stage held more than three-quarters of the debt traded). We all know what happens when such trades get uncomfortably crowded. The rush for the exits creates very unpleasant price action and invariably does nothing more than illustrate the dangers of rampant speculation run amok. The commodities complex has that unfortunate feel about it today."

Merlinsen

(10/28/2003; 17:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 110987)

********411.50********

When gold is fully revalued, the north american economy will be under intensive care, millions of individuals and families will have difficulties to feed themselves, the social and political instability will be surreal. That is the scariest and sadest part of this gold market. We focus rarely on those aspects. Because we are aware of the big picture and of the end results and we believe our vision, our first responsibility is to protect our family wealth by investing in gold and silver; there is not many other alternatives. We have another responsibility: to spread the message to as many people as possible and one easy way to do it is to recommand the USAGOLD forum.

Solomon Weaver

(10/28/2003; 17:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 110988)

Dollar Bill.....Auerbach article.

Dollar,

I too saw the Auerbach article....his basic premise being that commodities are trading high on speculative liquidity driven by the money and credit stimulus.

The unsung question he does not directly address is if gold and silver are in that bag.

What I might note is that MOST ASSETS are trading up lately, USA stocks, Junk and Emerging market bonds, real estate, precious metals, commodities, many non US currencies. ALL of them perhaps driven by the ready supply of international money.

There is one particularly peculiar phenomenon which I, as a neophyte only, seem to notice, and ponder often lately. The effect of the FED lowering short term rates has brought down the costs of financing debt....across all layers of the bond and asset backed markets. Normally, low interest rates are assigned to very high quality debt, as there is limited supply of money to buy bonds, and so buyers usually look at the risk side. Today, with the US issuing massive quantities of the highest quality (HA HA) debt, and yet at such low rates that much money moves into higher risk, to earn better rates, not knowing how much new risk they really take.

So, it seems to me that in the next "down draft", after a certain incubation period, the stock market will have to return to "value" and the bond market will have to return to "risk" and when they do, the precious metals have much chance to shine as "assets for which there is no corresponding liability". And in that case, they will not be in the same bag as commodities.

Poor old Solomon

Guided

(10/28/2003; 17:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110989)

**** 392.0 ****

The scariest thing about this gold market for me is the questions my wife will ask when I cash some in at 10 or 15 times today's value.

Guided

(10/28/2003; 17:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 110990)

**** $392.0 ****

Oops, forgot that sign.

Good luck all!

1340cc

(10/28/2003; 17:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 110991)

CB2 i.e. The Big Easy

No, I wish we could be there but we just got back from the conference in Calgary. It was free too! I know at least some of the "Big Guns" will be there.

Our broker from Puerto Rico will be there so we will get all the good info. on it. And of course Bill Murphy from Le Metropole Cafe will keep everyone abreast of what goes on there. Maybe next year.

Solomon Weaver

(10/28/2003; 17:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110992)

Digger......very welcome to the forum.....

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/default.htmlDigger

Welcome here.

There is an old pub at the end of the road where many of us oldtimers used to collect....and listen to the stories of a guest who has since moved on to other things.

He took us all on long walks through the clean fresh trails of the mountain tops and had many fireside chats about gold. (see link). These stories have been preserved and they make very good reading.

When you read these stories, you will begin to understand that the gold you want is not trading contracts (with leverage) that make you a slave to your computer screen. The kind of gold you want can be pressed right in the palm of your hand, and stacked nicely in little plastic containers, and carefully stored in a quiet place without a modem or a mouse.

With the first core gold position quietly sleeping, no matter if the world goes up or down, you will also sleep soundly, knowing that each little ounce you have saved, will still be the very same ounce the next time you look.

Out in those markets you have just dabbled in, the expression goes " a fool and his paper gold will soon be parted". (Not to imply you, per se, are that fool, but rather that those foxes out there always know how to rip off the little guy).

You must really try this Sir Digger.....call up our hosts, do your first trade, get the goods, follow the news, and watch how well you begin to sleep.

Please note, I got into this market at about $300 in 1998, watched things slowly grind down to $250 and slowly wind towards $300 again.....many long years of "no gain", while the NASDAQ topped out......but all those years I still slept very well. Now that I am in the gains, I just sleep a little better.

Just some encouraging advice from an old philosopher....

Poor old Solomon (P.S. I happen to love silver much)

TownCrier

(10/28/2003; 18:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 110993)

One of our favorites, Fed Governor Bernanke, gives Friedman a bit of brushing up

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20031024/default.htmCan you spot what's hot?
Can you spot what's not?

A little something for everyone to gnaw on in this one.

R.

DryWasher

(10/28/2003; 18:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 110994)

Lady Waverider, Sir CB2, and All.

When I saw that telephone number this afternoon I had the same concerns that Lady Waverider did. I think we all tend to forget that we never know who may be lurking in the shadows, and that the Internet is not the place to divulge personal information that we would never think of making public.

I have seen other posts in the past that raised similar concerns as well. But why would anyone want to gather information on posters at a GOLD forum? I think each reader of this post can find his or her own answer to that question without any help from me. Happy Halloween all.

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 18:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 110995)

WELCOME Sir Merlinsen

Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987
===
Nice to see a name similar to that of a GREAT Wizard friend of mine.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 18:52:46 MDT - Msg ID: 110996)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAA ===> POG Contest UPDATE !! <;-)

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of 18:48 (Denver time) on Tuesday 10/28/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $411.5 **** Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906

**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.3 **** steady (10/28/03; 14:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110981

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.5 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (10/28/03; 10:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110963
**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.5 **** The Hoople (10/28/03; 10:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110966)

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $392.0 **** Guided (10/28/03; 17:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110990)

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942

**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955

**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936)

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927

**** $365.7 **** Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946

**** $365.0 **** 1340cc (10/28/03; 09:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110957

===

Dollar Bill

(10/28/2003; 20:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 110997)

">"

Sir Solomon Weaver, you called yourself a "neophyte",
well I dont think so !
You improved on Marshal Auerbach in 2 different ways.
Excellent.

otish mountain

(10/28/2003; 20:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 110998)

Solomon Weaver

The phenomenon of lower interest rates. I read with interest your take in post #110988. For the last week I have been pondering the results from falling interest rates.

For Example: Company A arranges financing for production equipment in say the year 2001 at say 6%. Company B (a newly formed competitor) finances production equipment in 2003 for say 3.5%. In this case Company A is at a disadvantage and has financed at to high a rate and probably paid higher for the equipment compared to company B.

Just possibly a falling interest rate enviroment is the cause of recession not the cure. If I may refer to you some writings by Antal Fetete titled Revisionist View of the Great Depression (next door in editorials), I would be interested in your comments.

DummyANI

(10/28/2003; 20:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 110999)

Sayonara US Dollar, welcome to Gold

In Japan, rumors said that Japanese Department of Treasuries plan to sell US-Government Bonds in order to get dollars and intervene into Forex-Market within two or three weeks.
If this is true, gold will be revitarized, and jumped over $400 level.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Merlinsen

(10/28/2003; 21:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 111000)

Gandalf the white

Thank you for your welcome, Gandalf. We are with you since the very beginning and we appreciate your hospitality. Merlin is indeed in our family but even if he is now advanced in years, he is still much younger than you are but for well born soul, the value does not wait the number of years. In our family, we have a long tradition of seeing far away and acting accordingly.

Yellow Metal

(10/28/2003; 21:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 111002)

My Handle

yellowmetalI'm not a frequent enough poster here for the new "yellowmetal" to have known how close he was to usurpation of my handle.

I was shocked when I read Slingshot's response to a post I hadn't made, until I went and checked my own version of the name.
I hope that careful students of our language will note that yellometal and Yellow Metal have some definable differences.

And I must try to gather up the courage to post here more frequently.

Perhaps I'll take a fling on the newest halloween ride being offered by our hosts.

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 22:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 111003)

Sir Yellow Metal !! <;-)

Yellow Metal (10/28/03; 21:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 111002)
==
I suggest that you consider a PROGNOSTICATION of say --
$398.6 --- Then you would be "one up" on someone !
<;-)

wiley

(10/28/2003; 22:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111004)

Being Scared

Caught Cavuto's show the other day--all the SEERS are excited because the California fires are gonna
be a shot in the arm for Home Depot as well as all the builders in the area. My question then is "Why try and put them out? Fire up the rest of the country and get this economy back on its feet'.

Psst; Buy Kraft, together we can corner the marshmallow market.

*****384.0*****

Yellow Metal

(10/28/2003; 22:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111005)

Not only can he make spot jump . . . . BUT !!

HE'S PSYCHIC TOO !Gandalf /
You've always amazed me but never more than tonight.
I'm so flabbergasted that I hardly know where to begin.

Out of some kind of ridiculous insecurity I guess, I regularly proofread and change my posts here before sending.

So . . .
Imagine my surprise to find that you suggest I post at $398.6 when I had just discarded that Idea prior to hitting submit.
>>... and not only that but a discarded sentence I had written concerning yellowmetal's post had contained the phrase "price PROGNOSTICATION"

It's actually eerie.
Altogether too halloweeny !

I started to wonder if you, with your close connection to all things here, were able to observe my halting attempts at posting while I was in the process.

Playing the music from Outer Limits . . . Doo doo - doo doo

As I've missed the opportunity to post the suggested figure here I'll hang up and dial again.

Luvin you more than ever Mr. G.

yellow

Yellow Metal

(10/28/2003; 23:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 111006)

*****$398.6 *******

Thanks to GandalfSomething new and . . yes . . scary about the rise in the price in gold.
Since arriving at USA Gold some years ago I've looked a great deal more closely at geopolitics. It's impossible to watch gold's progress without a corresponding sense of things askew in the world. It's unnerving to ponder the machinations of foreign and domestic entities as they play a deadly serious game. There's a lot of monied (and powerful) interests riding broomsticks over our heads these days.
I think I occasionally see them riding by over my head like the Nazghul and it sends shivers down my spine.

Gandalf the White

(10/28/2003; 23:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 111007)

Sir Yellow Metal ---

Thanks!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 00:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 111008)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! POG CONTEST UPDATE!

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of 24:00 MIDNIGHT (Denver time) TUESDAY 10/28/03

ONLY forty-eight hours to go before ENTRY DEADLINE !

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $411.5 **** Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906

**** $398.6 **** Yellow Metal (10/28/03; 23:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111006
**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.3 **** steady (10/28/03; 14:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110981

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.5 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (10/28/03; 10:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110963
**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.5 **** The Hoople (10/28/03; 10:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110966)

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $392.0 **** Guided (10/28/03; 17:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110990)

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942

**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955

**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004
**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936)

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927

**** $365.7 **** Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946

**** $365.0 **** 1340cc (10/28/03; 09:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110957

===
The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested an "All Hallows" POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize an Argentino "5 Peso" goldpiece (0.2334 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST include a few short remarks on what you believe to be the "Scariest Aspect" of the gold market as we approach the eve of Halloween.
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short Statement !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of FRIDAY, the 31st of October, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes twelve times (MIDNIGHT 24:00 MDT) on Thursday, October 30th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $400.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $400.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on the "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market !

===
"TRICK or TREAT ?" !!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!! Tick tock !!
<;-)

The Invisible Hand

(10/29/2003; 00:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 111009)

The barbaric relic

http://www.inq7.net/brk/2003/oct/29/brkoth_3-1.htmSNIPS
FIVE members of the "Salaguinto" gang, which sells fake gold bars in Central Luzon [Philippines] were arrested in separate operations in the provinces of Pampanga and Nueva Ecija, ...
+
Senior Superintendent Leonardo Espina said the suspects would initially sell genuine gold bars then sell fakes. He added the suspects sometimes killed their victims.
Eight and a half fake gold bars were seized from the suspects.

Operative

(10/29/2003; 03:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 111010)

Sale of gold up by 20% during Diwali

http://web.mid-day.com/metro/ghatkopar/2003/october/67327.htmSale of gold up by 20% during Diwali

This year, most Ghatkopar shopkeepers have been doing booming business. According to traders, there has been at least a 20 to 30 per cent jump in sales in electronic goods and gold as compared to last year.

It's not only been a good Diwali for electronic goods dealers. Even the sale of gold jewellery has witnessed an upward swing. At Bharati Jewellers, Vasant Doshi, the proprietor, says the sales have shot up by 30 per cent this year. "This year, corporate orders formed a sizeable chunk of our sales. Also, the demand for antique jewellery and silver articles were better than last year."

Comment: "corporate orders"...Hmmm? Wonder if these orders are bonus for employees, or moving paper fiat into something more tangible.

Operative

(10/29/2003; 03:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 111011)

And The Winner Is ...? Gold of Course!

http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2003/10/27/daily6.htmlStock mutual fund sectors registering the largest gains during the third quarter were precious metals, with a 25.25 percent gain; emerging market with a 14.28 percent gain; and technology, with a 9.66 percent gain, Weiss Ratings said. Of the 9,120 stock mutual funds Weiss Ratings said it studies, the firm said those registering the largest gains during the quarter include:
Precious metals fund Scudder Gold & Precious Metals S, with a 44.33 percent third quarter return and a 71.4 percent annual return;
Foreign fund Matthews Japan Fund, with a 37.26 percent third quarter return and a 33.26 percent annual return; and
Precious metals fund U.S. Global Inv. World Precious Minerals, with a 34.46 percent third quarter return and a 56.52 percent annual return.

Comment: Would like to think that the wise are moving some of thier paper profits into the physical (real gold) to protect thier gains.

Operative

(10/29/2003; 03:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 111012)

It's Big And Moving Fast, The Latest Solar Flare

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.htmlShould arrive on planet earth around high noon today. Could do little damgae, or, could really cause some problems. If you return to your office after lunch and the lights are out, earth took a direct hit. Now where did you leave that flashlight?

Coffee pot is on, Good Morning to all. Noticed while catching up on the postings a lot are headed out for vacations/adventures. Will look forward to some interesting posts upon your return. Be safe.

Economan

(10/29/2003; 04:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 111013)

Standing Up in Back and Clearing my Throat

Hi everyone. I'm a long time lurker of almost 2 years and have decided I should put my 2 cents at times. First, a huge Thank You to all who contribute to this forum. I have found this to be a superb site full of excellent debate and truly intelligent thoughts.I'm a bit of an
economics nerd and just love to visit here.
As for me, I'm a semi-retired (age 40) accountant/business owner/bakery manager.Although I'm not a millionaire money has always interested me. I was the kid with the paper route and mowing lawns which then led me into starting my own business at age 24 (HVAC contractor).I have slowed down in some respects over the last few years to get to know my family and achieve a better balance in my life. I feel that has been my greatest accomplishment because it has given me the time and space to find out what's really going on in this sometimes crazy world.
Well, there is always much to comment on here,but I'll keep my first one simple. I am amazed at the financial ignorance in this country (U.S.). My latest favorite is the suits on T.V. telling us that there is virtually no inflation. If they really believe their drivel, they are in for rude awakening.

Good bye for now, Economan

Dollar Bill

(10/29/2003; 04:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 111014)

"/ "

Town Crier, Thanks for the link to the -Bereneke dissects Freidman- speech. Your right, there is a lot to comment on there.
I would say, Freidman's base position is "do no harm".
While Bereneke and the present Fed's base position is "maintain reserve currency status" at all costs and to whatever harm is caused where ever on the planet.

I was flabberghasted by just the idea that Bereneke would comment on Freidman in the first place. What I would like to see is the deceased Freidman comment on Bereneke !
I bet he would find the forum his kind of refuge.

J-Bullion

(10/29/2003; 06:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 111015)

Economan

I think it was black blade or someone else on this forum who said it best "Why doesn't the govt. just drop everything from the inflation index, instead of just housing, food, energy, health care, and then we could have zero inflation forever!"

I really like that idea, and tell people about it all the time.

Cheers!

goldenboy

(10/29/2003; 07:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 111016)

*****$380.00*****

The scariest thing about this gold market is the prospect of sudden reversal caused by the shorters changing tactics at the same time. This will cause the ESF/CB to attempt to paper over the crisis while defectors to their cause turn and buy physical. Separation of physical and paper markets will ensue causing the truly painful decision on the manipulators; Throw good money after bad (sorry Ari) and dump the remaining physical onto the pyre, or risk a rollover type experience.

Socrates964

(10/29/2003; 07:27:37 MDT - Msg ID: 111017)

Gold P&F

Hello everybody. Finally back from my travels.

Two points catch my eye:

1. Today's fall to below 380 appears to have set up another down column on the P&F chart. The implications are (provided that spot doesn't fall below 368), that it will reverse again and expand the horizontal count from 3 to 5.
By P&F theory, this adds 3x2x$4 = $24 to the price objective, which now rises from $404 to $428.

2. With regard to my Fib methods, you'll remember that I signalled 380.60 as the key 78.6% level (relative to the 415 to 255 downleg). This is now acting as an attractor, both from below and above this level, but once we break North of 392, we should (if theory is correct) go up to at least the 127.2% level around 459 (NB this is not the top, only a likely interim top).

Albatros

(10/29/2003; 07:29:32 MDT - Msg ID: 111018)

****382.0****

The scarriest thing for me is that the POG won't increase adequately with the decreasing value of the USD, which is dissolving the POG down under as the AUD steadily increases value against the greeback. Over the past year or so the AUD has gone from .47USD to .70USD. However, I'm of the view that POG will prevail in this increasingly uncertain world. Best wishes for a happy Halloeen to all you s/tanks! Door to door trick or treating on Halloeen has become a custom amongst Aussie kids for the past decade or so. Thanks to all for the diverse & interesting economic info turned over on this unique site. I often find consise info here ahead of the confused media reporting.

HighPtFarm

(10/29/2003; 07:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 111019)

Gold Contest

****395.2****

Fear: Managed markets will ultimately result in chaos. Chaos will result in even more intensely managed markets until only tangables with intrinsic value will be trusted. Bullion, farmland (food) and energy will become the world currencies of the future.

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 09:57:50 MDT - Msg ID: 111020)

WELCOME Sir Economan !!!

Economan (10/29/03; 04:16:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 111013)
Standing Up in Back and Clearing my Throat
---
Please take a seat up FRONT at the TABLEROUND when you wish to sit, and keep on telling us of your thoughts.
<;-)

Casey

(10/29/2003; 09:58:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111021)

**** 385.4 ****

The scariest thing to me is that I will not have acquired enough of the precious metal when the inevitable turmoil and paper shredding begins.

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 10:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 111022)

WELCOME back from your travels, Sir Soc ! BUT, ----

Socrates964 (10/29/03; 07:27:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 111017)
Gold P&F
Hello everybody. Finally back from my travels.
Two points catch my eye:
1. Today's fall to below 380 appears to have set up another down column on the P&F chart. The implications are (provided that spot doesn't fall below 368), that it will reverse again and expand the horizontal count from 3 to 5.
By P&F theory, this adds 3x2x$4 = $24 to the price objective, which now rises from $404 to $428.
===
I do GREATLY appreciate your readings of the P&F charts, BUT we MAY not see that "down column" at $380. of which you speak !!! My crystal ball shows (at this time) ---
10/29/03 HIGH $388.2 low $380.3 Last 385.8 Progress +$2.4
with the IO having fallen a slight bit yesterday to 181,725.
I think that it is VERY CLOSE to the reversal, BUT I am trying my magic to keep THIS ROCKET in the GREEN mode!
We shall see.
<;-)

Solomon Weaver

(10/29/2003; 10:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 111023)

back to otish on interest rates

RE: otish mountain (10/28/03; 20:48:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 110998)
Solomon Weaver
The phenomenon of lower interest rates. I read with interest your take in post #110988. For the last week I have been pondering the results from falling interest rates. For Example: Company A arranges financing for production equipment in say the year 2001 at say 6%. Company B (a newly formed competitor) finances production equipment in 2003 for say 3.5%. In this case Company A is at a disadvantage and has financed at to high a rate and probably paid higher for the equipment compared to company B.
. . . .
Otish

Furthering your thoughts on two competitors borrowing at different rates. The new capacity brought on by company B increases supply, and both companies drop prices to attain market share, demand increases slightly driven by consumers who are financing the purchases with lower cost credit and home refinancing cash outs. As both companies are going broke in the midst of plenty, they both now go to the junk bond markets to raise additional debt to cover their negative cash flows. In truth, all are going broke, and yet with low interest rates they are not getting the signals to put on the brakes.

. . . .

My comment in the post was further along the lines that the very low rates of interest (worldwide) are not accurately reflecting the "risk" which is inherant behind many of the specific debt instruments. More specifically, the low interest rates are driven by a supply side glut of new money which is out there competing for any kind of debt. Just like the stock market has historical "valuations" such as price/earnings or price/book, and the "return" to the historical norms will reduce valuations (driving the market down to historical equilibrium), the bond markets must also have historical "risk/rate" levels, which also need to return to norms.

To restate the point made yesterday, when stocks return to "fair value" and bonds return to "fair risk", then gold should benefit.

Poor old Solomon

DryWasher

(10/29/2003; 10:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 111024)

Ignoring the Gold Signal

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/darda200310290954.asp
This morning while checking Goggle News Headlines a short but interesting article by Micheael T. Darda published at National Review Online popped up on my screen. In it he suggests "It's time for Dr. Greenspan to heed to the old reliable." meaning Gold.

This short and to the point article appearing as it does in the main stream press really is worth your time to read. This is strong good news for Gold Bugs for sure.

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 10:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111025)

OK SPOT and SPIKE --- IT IS time to start JUMPING !!!

Let's GO UP !
<;-)

Socrates964

(10/29/2003; 10:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 111026)

Gandalf

I was just reading off your P&F chart - which I presume refers to real-tine spot. If so, then according to Kitco, we printed a low of 379.40 which would fill the 380 box and give you a column of 3 Os. Evidently depends on what your criteria are.

Topaz

(10/29/2003; 10:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 111027)

@1340cc

Fret not good Knight/Damsel, as I perceive those several spots betwix thee and me are destined to be filled as the deadline approacheth ...

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 10:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 111028)

YES that is true, Sir Soc -- BUT --

IT APPEARS that the makers of THIS P&F chart are not using SPOT ! AND they sometimes make a lot of temporary errors !
<;-)
we shall see !
WHAT if the reversal does not show today ?
WHAT are the readings then ?
Thanks !
<;-)

sstins

(10/29/2003; 11:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 111029)

**** 421.50 ****

Of a personal concern is the possibility of Gov preventing access to our "physical" dominated IRA when most needed.

Great Albino Bat

(10/29/2003; 11:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111030)

The GAB reports from Vienna

Hello all!

Vienna is cold and cloudy - looks like it might snow, to me.

Opera "Fastaff" - comic opera by Verdi, totally sold out.

Tried to buy a Philharmonic and guess what? "No credit cards accepted, no travellers checks accepted. Only paper money." The price quoted was: Euros 340.

Take advantage of CPM's great systems and get your gold right away!

The GAB

Socrates964

(10/29/2003; 11:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111031)

Halloween

At this late stage I'm probably hors de concours, so I'll just make a more general point about what scares me in this gold market.

Many have pointed out that asset prices are floating upwards on a tide of paper. I think that this applies to PMs, but is probably an effect that has to be distinguished from the gold price suppression that has kept POG below its equilibrium level. This is why I choose to invest in gold, since it is firing on 2 engines: (a) non-equilibrium pricing and (b) a tendency for this equilibrium price to rise in currency terms, due to excessive paper creation. Investors will probably do very well in other commodities such as grain and energy, but while the excess money supply argument is a tide that will lift all boats, I don't have such a clear focus on the other commodity-specific factors for e.g. POO.

What scares me, however, is my perception that no-one close to the centers of power seems to have any idea how to clean up this whole monetary mess except by issuing more credit. The best hope, therefore, is that the inevitable crash happens slowly enough to avoid major turmoil.

In particular, there seems to be a disturbing trend among intellectuals to throw their previous good sense to the wind and join the official US propaganda bandwagon.

I commented in a previous post about Stephen Roach, with his spurious championing of US economic dynamism using statistics that hopelessly confuse relative shifts in exchange rates with underlying economic growth.

This disease, which seems to cause the higher parts of the brain to fill up with intellectually dishonest ideas, seems to have spread to Warren Buffett.

Descending from Mout Olympus to participate in the vulgar everyday affairs of men is alright per se, but 1) to back a bodybuilder???? and 2) to propose an import voucher scheme???? What the *%�$%#! is going on here??????

Leaving Arnie aside, since he may well have virtues that I am unaware of, I really wonder what led the Sage of Omaha to publicize such a bone-headed proposal and claim that other nations couldn't retaliate in kind.

Two massive flaws: a) he seems to have forgotten that the US economy is financed by foreigners. I believe that there is an implicit quid pro quo, in that yes, the Far Eastern nations run a huge bilateral trade surplus, but immediately plough the money back into US Treasuries - if they can't have the first, then why should they provide the second. Let's assume they dump treasuries, the dollar goes down, and the US which has deindustrialized beyond the point of self-sufficiency, imports inflation. Will interest rates remain at 1% in such an environment? I don't think so. Secondly, to overlook the tech boom may have been a misfortune, but to overlook globalization starts to look like carelessness. What proportion of imports are actually internal transfers of semi-finished products between different bits of the same multinational. Would they like a situation in which the Chinese give them a hard time at the start of their production line and the US at the end of it? Also, wouldn't such an anti-import scheme put Wal-Mart out of business (probably one of its few virtues).

No, I can't bear to abandon my belief in Mr. Buffett's supreme intelligence and good sense. It would be like realizing that God didn't exist. So I will salvage my belief by assuming that Buffett has eyed the mother of all shorts in 2004, but feels the need to nudge it along by coaxing the US administration into doing even more stupid and self-destructive things than they have so far. Yes, that must be it. Ahhh, I feel better already.

Zhisheng

(10/29/2003; 11:30:35 MDT - Msg ID: 111032)

Up into the Close!

December Contract: $387.20 at posting.And the dollar up slightly against the Euro too.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(10/29/2003; 11:45:41 MDT - Msg ID: 111033)

Page Update!

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 12:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 111034)

COMEX GOLD data REPORT UPDATE !! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX GOLD Contract Data

10/20/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8 OI 175,879
10/24/03 Open $385.8 HIGH $393.0 low $384.3 SETTLE $389.2 CHANGE +$4.2 OI 183,300
10/27/03 Open $387.7 HIGH $389.0 low $386.0 SETTLE $388.2 CHANGE -$1.0 OI 183,756
10/28/03 Open $386.2 HIGH $388.7 low $383.0 SETTLE $383.4 CHANGE -$4.8 OI 181,725
10/29/03 Open $380.5 HIGH $388.2 low $380.3 SETTLE $387.0 CHANGE +$3.6
===
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 12:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 111035)

TA TA TAAAAAAA ----"KING of the HILL" report !

YES indeed, Sir Lothar of the Hill People, a slippery slope is atop the hill !!
Today the "KING OF THE HILL" is shared by two GOLDHEARTS !

Sir Slingshot and (I am guessing) LADY? Goldenpeace !!!
---
**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942
**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955
===
<;-)

Cavan Man

(10/29/2003; 14:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 111037)

Contest Entry

$8,753.00. Why not?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/29/2003; 14:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 111038)

The fruit of your labor: Exchange TODAY's value for TIMELESS value!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 14:22:39 MDT - Msg ID: 111039)

WOWSERS -- Cavan Man !

COMPETITION at the TOP of the Range !!!
THAT IS really scary !
<;-)

Humble Pie

(10/29/2003; 14:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 111040)

Golg Contest

*****$400.10****** Fear of big brother takeing my Gold to further the socialist madness.

Humble Pie

(10/29/2003; 14:57:48 MDT - Msg ID: 111041)

Gold contest not Golg

the previous post was not correct . It was supposed to be Gold Not Glog.

Tevye

(10/29/2003; 15:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 111042)

****** 389.1 *******

The scariest thing may be that the PTB _are_ in control
... in the short term anyway.

In the long term the scariest thing may be that any two of the scares posted by the esteemed Knights and Ladies could become true at the same time once the PTB lose control.

Gold. It's Tradition.

Tevye

phil288

(10/29/2003; 15:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 111043)

******$390.20*******

The "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market is that this time we may actually need our own gold reserves, and if so the consequences for the world as we have known it, our lifestyles, freedoms,institutions and ultimately our families and friends will be put to the test. GOT GOLD?

misetich

(10/29/2003; 16:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111044)

Treasury may name currency manipulators

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565474270&p=1012571727088Snip:

John Snow, US Treasury secretary, appears on Thursday in front of a congressional committee to present the Treasury's annual currency report, facing pressure to step up its campaign against Asian countries manipulating their exchange rates.

In compiling the report, whose publication has been delayed two weeks, the administration has had to decide whether formally to name countries such as China and Japan as manipulators of their currency.
................

If Asian countries suddenly stopped intervening altogether in response to heightened pressure, it could turn the dollar's recent orderly slide into a destabilising rout. Indeed, some signs suggest the US administration has decided to ease off for the moment.
***************
Misetich

What a bunch of nonsense - ESF is allegedly the biggest market manipulator of them all -

US Treasury misinformation and disinformation is working overtime. The US Treasury HOPES AND PRAYS foreigners will keep on providing materials, commodities and goods in exchange for paper printed out of thin air at little cost.

Reality says the fiat system based on the US $ as a world reserve currency is stricken to death by deficits and debt creation disease

Japan's savings rate is plunging - Consumers are burning up their hard earned savings as little income through jobs are being created

Smoke and mirrors being deployed by the Feds - some call it MANIPULATION - hoping to avoid a crash landing of the overvalued US $

Investors worlwide are being deceived by these called MANIPULATORS as their hard earned earnings and retirement funds disappear

The continued jawboning coming out of the Feds is to prevent a rout of the US $

Will they succeed?

OPEC has thus far (for the last 3years)thumbed down the Feds hot air DEMANDING AND OBTAINING higher prices for their commodity and are now threatning to diversify into Euros to protect themselves

Who can blame them?

Of course there is a better alternative to the Euro!

Physical Gold

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Socrates964

(10/29/2003; 16:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 111045)

3-box reversal

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,P

Voil�, Sir Gandalf, your 3-box reversal. A close above 396 sets up 428.

Tate

(10/29/2003; 16:25:09 MDT - Msg ID: 111046)

Gold Contest

****390.4****
"Scariest Aspect" of the gold market:
American Eagles are displayed as rare specimens, while street cleaner sweeps autumn leaves together with worthless paper dollar notes. Smile.

RDM208

(10/29/2003; 16:38:54 MDT - Msg ID: 111047)

POG Contest

****$$386.40**** RDM208

cockerel1

(10/29/2003; 16:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 111048)

TPTB!

A lot of people on this board, including myself, keep refering to "TPTB"!

But does anyone know who TPTB are?

Can anyone put names to this group?

I can't. But I know they exist!

Maybe TPTB on this board can throw some light as to whom these "nefarious" bodies are.

Once we know the names of these individuals, only then can we come to grips with, and defend against their plan

Remember, keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

misetich

(10/29/2003; 16:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 111049)

US accused of stealing billions of Iraqi oil revenues

http://www.albawaba.com/headlines/TheNews.php3?sid=262171⟨=e&dir=businessSnip:

Some four billion dollars set aside for the reconstruction of Iraq have disappeared into American bank accounts administered by the occupying Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA).

The missing billions, uncovered by UK humanitarian group Christian Aid, are a combination of oil revenues now controlled by the CPA, plus seized Iraqi government assets and funds vested overseas.

"The fact that no independent body knows where this cash has gone is in direct violation of the UN resolution that released much of it for the rebuilding of Iraq's shattered infrastructure," said Christian Aid in a news release.

It is estimated that by the end of the year, the amount of unaccounted cash will double if CPA financial management is not made more transparent.
*****************
Misetich

American taxpayers funds are disappearing as they're earmarked "Iraq's reconstruction" -

If what Christian Aid alleges is true Iraqi people are being defrauded

US efforts in attracting donors for the "Iraq's reconstruction" (after being demolished during the recent invasion) will be harmed by the allegations of Christian Aid and other countries will be reluctant to contribute without sanctioned accountability - thus the financial burden falls once again on American taxapayers and increasing the ever growing deficit

Where are all these funds disappearing to? Who is benefitting?

How is the perception of the world affected by these accusations and widening deficits?

Are all these moves orchestrated to bring the Superpower down?

Since the US army is too powerful perhaps the "enemies" are concentrating on the achilli - US $

Are the enemies from within or without or both? Or is it personal greed and ego the real enemy?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

turkey hunter

(10/29/2003; 17:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 111050)

Papua New Guinea....Doubts raised over new silver coins

http://www.thenational.com.pg/1030/nation3.htmsnip....
Former Western Highlands governor Father Robert Lak was among those who claimed yesterday that the new silver coins issued in 2002 were minted from the cheap iron metal, a far cry from the old silver coins that were pure silver.
His claim appear to have gained credence when he demonstrated that by applying a magnet next to the old and the new silver coins, only the new coins (a one Kina and a 10 toea coin) were attracted by the magnetic field.

"We produce so much gold in this country, silver comes as by-product from the gold metal when it is smelted. We produce a lot of silver and yet we cannot afford to mint our currency in pure silver.

TH.. Where is all the real silver at??

Solomon Weaver

(10/29/2003; 17:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 111051)

Sennholz on interest rates

http://www.sennholz.com/marketrate.htmlDollar Bill....otish mountain and others......

Would we not all agree that being a gold-investor instills the hunt for understanding of many forces which might influence gold.....and today, after much talk of tech bubbles, and stock bubbles, and real estate bubbles, and dollar bubbles, one occassionally returns to the rather boring subject of "bonds"....DA da DA da....my name is "Bond"....

I remember in long gone pre-Y2K days, Dr. Gary North first introducing me to the concept of "liquidity preference"...a kind of inverted pyramid. Gold at the bottom...King Dollar Cash next....King Dollar Deposits next...King Dollar Money Markets....King Dollar T Bills....other Sovereign Debt...High Grade Corporate Debt....Junk Bond Debt.....Non-performing debt...my understanding being that in an environment of collapsing expectations, the market moves towards the bottom of the pyramid, seeking assets which remain liquid and don't default.

The FEDs ongoing efforts to collapse rates near the bottom of the pyramid and create immense new liquidity has perversely collapsed the "spreads" (risk curve) on this entire pyramid....I think the most offensive part of the whole scam is to get the statement on my money market deposit account (which is my true liquid asset, as I don't think to liquidate any yellow metal soon) and to see a healthy (HA HA) yield of 0.40%. The system has punished the good old fashioned concept of "saving" and has caused all "savers" to be speculators (even if they do not realize it).

Hans Sennholz, in his simple elegance and profound sense of authority, lays the story on the line (see link) with the simple and concise warning that the FED will oneday have to admit that there is a "market rate" of interest.

For some strange reason, when I think of what it would mean for all to "mark interest to market", I think of a jack-in-the-box. We had one in our family that faithfully served the animations of myself and my six younger siblings...even as the bright colored gown got faded, and the raggedy Ann hair got lost, the coil, lock, and music all worked perfectly....ALL AROUND THE MULBERRY BUSH, THE MONKEY CHASED THE WEASEL, THE MONKEY THOUGHT TWAS ALL IN FUN, POP GOES THE WEASEL...A PENNY FOR A SPOOL OF THREAD, A PENNY FOR A NEEDLE, THATS THE WAY THE MONEY GOES....WHHHHHHAAAAAAAMMMMMMM OUT WOULD JUMP THAT JACK WITH FURIOUS FORCE AND BEADY BLACK BUTTOM EYES......AND EACH TODDLER IN THE FAMILY WAS ALWAYS FACINATED....AND WE COULD PLAY IT FOR HOURS.......something makes me think the gods of the markets are no less willing to play the same game....just that Alan Greenspan has had his little hiney on the lid....and the music has stopped and the lock has sprung.

Poor old Solomon

misetich

(10/29/2003; 17:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111052)

Traders Wonder if U.S. Will Reverse Weak-Dollar Policy

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/29/business/29CND-PORT.htmlSnip:

The Bush administration's virtual weak-dollar policy has not done any damage so far to the American financial markets. There are some reasons for concern, however.
.................
What will be critical, Mr. Fand said, is how Mr. Snow "responds to the fact that we know he has been trying to talk the dollar down," although he has not admitted it.
.....................
***********
Misetich

Interesting - "Weak Dollar Policy" is now "in" . Apparently the spinmasters are diluging themselves with self-administered congratulatory slaps on the back since the SM and the Bond Market has not been disturbed by the fall of the US $.

Unfortanetely the US $ re-adjustment downward thus far is miniscule comparatively to the rise since the "Strong US $ policy" implemented by Rubin thus we are only in the beginning stages of the possible rout and equilibrium

Feds are advised to hold off corking the champagne bottles in their premature celebration - since good champagne is going to get more expensive to import

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

1340cc

(10/29/2003; 17:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 111053)

Sir Topaz

Thank you. More Dame than Damsel. ;-) On a good day!

I hope we are both about $200 short on the guess.

misetich

(10/29/2003; 17:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 111054)

US Overpaying Halliburton for Gas - Reps

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-iraq-gasoline-cheney.htmlSnip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government is paying Vice President Dick Cheney's former firm Halliburton ``enormous sums'' -- $2.65 a gallon -- for gasoline imported into Iraq from Kuwait, two lawmakers charged on Wednesday.

Democrats Rep. Henry Waxman of California and Rep. John Dingell of Michigan said this gross overpayment was made worse by the fact that the U.S. government was turning around and reselling the gasoline in Iraq for four to 15 cents a gallon.
..................
Waxman added in a statement: ``We know that someone is getting rich importing gasoline into Iraq. What we don't know is who is making the money, Halliburton or the Kuwaitis?''
.................
The U.S. government was then selling this gasoline inside Iraq for just four to 15 cents a gallon, subsidizing over 95 percent of the cost of gasoline consumed by Iraqis, they said.

``The U.S. government is paying nearly three times more for gasoline from Kuwait than it should, and then is reselling this gasoline at a huge loss inside Iraq,'' the lawmakers wrote.
.................
***********
Misetich

US taxpayers being defrauded. Haliburton defended earlier accusations of overcharging by stating " It also said the allegations of overcharging were insulting, considering the dangers its people were facing to deliver the fuel to Iraqis."

Halibuton implies the "workers" are benefitting from higher wages due to "danger pay". Yet it wouldn't surprise to learn that American GI's lives are being used to safeguard the delivery of fuel.

As time passes and presidential elections around the corner the "type" of accusations illustrated above will increase dramatically

Knives are out. It will be interesting on how the world perceives this upcoming "US internal squabble"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Noble1

(10/29/2003; 18:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 111055)

*****398.even*****

Boo!!!!First, let me thank our gracious host for sponsoring ANOTHER fine contest.

The scariest thing that I have seen in the recent gold market comes from Barrick's(ABX) quarterly report.

To quote:

"At quarter's end, the unrealized mark-to-market on our derivitive instruments position, including gold and silver forward sales contracts, as well as currency and interest rate hedge programs, was negative $1 billion."

Sit back and contemplate that one a few minutes. Yes, boys and girls, that's a 1 with 9 zeros. With a - sign in front. Who in their right mind would want to own part of such a thing. Doesn't sound like a gold miner to me. What will it take to unwind such a position? Read the report and you will see that it will take a decade(2003)to find out. When the time comes, only physical will satisfy the need. Invest accordingly.

Remember: There is no substitute for the real thing.

Cavan Man

(10/29/2003; 18:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 111056)

misetich

Halliburton is a strong BUY....Perhaps some Knight errant can post the 9-12 month price action of the security here. Halliburton is providing a tremendous amount of services in IRAQ. These services go well beyond the scope of the company's traditional businesses. I might add there are no competitive bids for those services. All those men killed in Iraq, they all have families and stories. It's about oil. It's about money, It's about ego and pride. There are no WMD. Iraq has never attacked the US either directly or indirectly; was not planning to attack the US.

Wake up America :>(...CM

Goldbug 1

(10/29/2003; 18:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 111057)

******376.5******

What scares me in the present market is the seemingly endless battle between the gold lovers and those "others", the nameless manipulators. Will there ever be a decisive battle? I think not.

Toolie

(10/29/2003; 18:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 111058)

*****$391.6*****

The "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market is.....

I am at a loss to conceive of solid reasoning that is bearish for gold. The Dollar, the world reserve currency is under assault from all directions. The gold friendly Euro vies for Petroeuro status. The Gold Dinar is soon to make its debut in international trade. China opens her gold market to her citizens (subjects?). The U.S. congress responds to the twin deficits by easing the pain of those with the most effective lobbying, while ignoring the nature of the problems.

The future is ours if we have the patience and discipline! The only thing we have to be scared of is being scared itself! Hmmm.... That didn't have the ring to it that I was looking for. :-(

Thanks Gandalf for your efforts. Keep the P&F explanations coming.

Paper Avalanche

(10/29/2003; 18:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 111059)

Looks like it's a slug fest tonight......

It appears that $385 is beginning to firm up nicely as a new base. All efforts by the sellers are apparently being met with increased buying volume. POG has been going back and forth like a tennis ball between $384 and $386 since the NY close.

I have a hunch that we will establish a new floor at $390 by the end of the week - for a little while anyway.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

steady

(10/29/2003; 19:06:35 MDT - Msg ID: 111060)

questions

are the new 20 dollar federal reserve notes brought into existence the same way the old 20 dollar federal reserve note is?

have you noticed the ratio of newer bills to older bills in circulation increasing and im not just speaking about 20s. see the ratio has to go up as the money supply increases there has to be more paper dollars circulatingf as well. you will notice how many newer bills you will be getting in change , also same goes with the coins for there is a ratio there also x amount of coins support x amout of paper as paer in circulation goes up up goes the amount of new coins, whatch your change and you will see.

yes ecoism is alive and well contenplating act II scene I

see ecoism is the effect of all the causes that are posed here. we hear about all the causes that make the price of gold go higher but ecoism is the effect of that. more people interested. more open minds. more seeking advice on precious metal and gold/silver numastic coins. moe seeking the facts/truth about what is really happening.
Defining it and molding it are not necessarily easy as for most of the planet the concept hanst even entered there mind yet so it hasnt been contemplated , mulled over and thought about to see if indeed the idea of ecoism is valid or not.it will happen just as sure enough that gold is going to be remonitized and set free.
understand ecoism?

21mabry

(10/29/2003; 19:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 111061)

Wall Street Journal

The last several issues the journal has been printing large articles about chinas economy and commodity prices going up as a result of increased economic activity in china.Marc Faber and some on this website were saying these things a year ago.Reading this forum definetly keeps you ahead of the trend.When the journal features gold articles on the front page is when I will get worried.If that happens you know the economic jig is up for tptb.21

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 19:25:09 MDT - Msg ID: 111062)

Answers for Sir Steady

Yes
No
No
---
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 19:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 111063)

RIGHT you are, Sir Soc !!!!! THANKS !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PSocrates964 (10/29/03; 16:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 111045)
Voil�, Sir Gandalf, your 3-box reversal. A close above 396 sets up 428
===
Ok, so the first ROCKET fizzled, as the low just barely touched $380. and therefore the three little "O"'s reversal appeared today.
THAT'S ok Sir Soc -- I like the sound of $438 !!
Soooo, here's the new mantra ===> $396. $396. $396.
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 19:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 111064)

ROFL <;-)

I mean $428. Sir Soc !

Time For GOLD

(10/29/2003; 19:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 111065)

*****$388.50*****

The "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market is.....
Short covering panick after POG crosses $400 and some bullion banks become finacially insolvent .

Shermag

(10/29/2003; 19:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 111066)

****$391.8****

The scariest aspect of this gold market, to me, is the prospect of confiscation. I fear it along the reasoning of: If they need it to support their faltering currencies and they know you have it, they will take it.

Dollar Bill

(10/29/2003; 19:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 111067)

">"

Sir Solomon Weaver,
Liked the image of Greenspan about to be tossed:)
Your link provided this glimpse of the future...
"...Some malinvestments are abandoned, others merely reduced in value. But, in the end, there is general impoverishment. Some people who recognize the maladjustments may increase their wealth, but investment errors and cheerful consumption reduce the large majority."
Forum folks recognise the maladjustments.

Druid

(10/29/2003; 20:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 111068)

Interesting Read

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/emorn.htmSnippet:

"There are times when I stop and think how silly it is for some "hick" from upstate NY to critique Fed policy, thereby suggesting some knowledge missing in their institution. If the future unfolds as I expect, these guys will have made a colossal mistake. To help me "keep the faith" as it were, I am constantly in search of other gross errors in judgment. One comes from Rothbard's The Case for a 100% Gold Dollar. According to Rothbard, both the Keynesian and Friedmanite camps expected Gold to follow the path of Silver during demonitization in 1971 and fall in price. $6 was the target he remembered. Last I checked Gold was still a bit higher than $6.00. Go figure."

Druid: The "Friedmanite's" and "Keynesian's" economic camps are much like the Republican and Democratic political camps. A dangerous brew indeed.

Noble1

(10/29/2003; 21:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 111069)

edit last post

...It will take a decade(2013) to find out...

specie-man

(10/29/2003; 21:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 111070)

Contest

**** $ 8,751.9 ****

I just couldn't resist the urge to "bracket" Cavan Man :)
Scary.

Bulldog

(10/29/2003; 21:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111071)

Cockerell

TPTBHouse of Rothschild, Governor Bank of England (controlled by Rothschild), Warburg Family, Lazard Freres, perhaps the House of Windsor, definitely the Vatican. Just guesses!

Cytek

(10/29/2003; 22:05:27 MDT - Msg ID: 111072)

******* $393.00 *******

The scariest aspect of this Gold market is: all the predictions that the posters of this forum that have been made over the last few years ... are slowly coming true.

Cytek

otish mountain

(10/29/2003; 22:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 111073)

Solomon - bonds

Thank you for your replies. I was aware that I had deviated from your original post concerning risk/reward levels.

This bond market is a complicated beast. My idle thoughts gravitate to this bond market subject, trying to gain a glimpse of the future I'm certain the bond market is a key.

Can these lower interest rate yields be acceptable for the increased risk associated?
No.

The unacceptable low interest rate yield has mitigated to the price side of the bond,where a capital gain can be realized. And thats where the money is, unabated speculation
and support from the government has driven yields down to next stop Zero.

Gandalf the White

(10/29/2003; 22:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 111074)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!! ---- UPDATE

(as I must depart on a short trip VERY EARLY tomorrow morning -- please use this Thursday until noon ! )Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 22:50 (Denver time) WEDNESDAY 10/29/03

ONLY a little more than TWENTY-FIVE (25) hours to go before ENTRY DEADLINE !

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries

*** $8,753.0 **** Cavan Man (10/29/03; 14:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 111037)

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

*** $8,751.9 **** specie-man (10/29/03; 21:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 111070)

**** $421.5 **** sstins (10/29/03; 11:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 111029)

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $411.5 **** Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.1 **** Humble Pie (10/29/03; 14:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 111040)
**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906

**** $398.6 **** Yellow Metal (10/28/03; 23:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111006
**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $398.0 **** Noble1 (10/29/03; 18:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111055)

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.3 **** steady (10/28/03; 14:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110981

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.2 **** HighPtFarm (10/29/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 111019)

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.5 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (10/28/03; 10:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110963
**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $393.0 **** Cytek (10/29/03; 22:05:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 111072)

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.5 **** The Hoople (10/28/03; 10:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110966)

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $392.0 **** Guided (10/28/03; 17:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110990)

**** $391.8 **** Shermag (10/29/03; 19:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111066)

**** $391.6 **** Toolie (10/29/03; 18:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 111058)

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $390.4 **** Tate (10/29/03; 16:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111046)

**** $390.2 **** phil288 (10/29/03; 15:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111043)

**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948

**** $389.1 **** Tevye (10/29/03; 15:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111042)

**** $388.5 **** Time For GOLD (10/29/03; 19:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111065

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942

**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955

**** $386.4 **** RDM208 (10/29/03; 16:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111047

**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951

**** $385.4 **** Casey (10/29/03; 09:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111021)

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004
**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $382.0 **** Albatros (10/29/03; 07:29:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 111018)

**** $380.0 **** goldenboy (10/29/03; 07:23:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 111016)

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936

**** $376.5 **** Goldbug 1 (10/29/03; 18:25:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 111057

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927

**** $365.7 **** Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946

**** $365.0 **** 1340cc (10/28/03; 09:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110957
===
<;-)

mdgc

(10/29/2003; 22:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 111075)

gold price prediction

**** $405 ****

The scariest things are the views of members of this forum about the coming crash of the dollar and collapse of the economy.

Yukon

(10/29/2003; 23:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 111076)

*******$391.50*******

The scariest aspect of the gold market looks different depending on your perspective. If you are short, as are many "professional" investment banks, hedge funds, and exchange traders, the view likely is indeed one of fright as we come to the pagan holiday celebrated with a big orange squash. The technical picture continues to show strength with the uptrends fully intact. Coupled with this are all the fundamental points made by others, as well as myself, in the previous contest (Is gold in a long-term up trend?), which continue to pressure gold higher. Among these are U.S. dollar weakeness, new asian economic strength, top formed in U.S. bonds, triple deficits on the U.S. economic frontline, continued war in Iraq/Afghanistan, overall rise in CRB (Commodities Research Beurau index), competing devaluations of currencies, increasing demand for physical metal as Asian/Islamic interests and central banks exchange U.S. Treasury holdings for gold, just to name a few.

From the long view, the scariest aspect I can see in this market is the continued threat of market participants and prognosticators to artificially act on and pronounce false levels as tops in the overall uptrend. As gold goes higher, I see as a potential event the eventual default or reorganization of the U.S. pricing structure of gold (presently known as the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) arm of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Yes, as history repeats itself once again, the rules will be changed to help those in control of the system(s) cut their losses. Those holding paper varieties of gold may find the properties of physical gold a necessity. Beyond this, the scariest aspect of this market would be a nightmare event that causes gold to shoot to the moon. Terrorist events, financial derivatives crisis, government confiscations (again) as dollar implodes, et al.
Gold; win some, buy some...just don't sell short some.
Watch with open eyes the gates to all your freedoms carefully. As one opens, so another may close.

Viva Liberty,
Yukon

timbervision

(10/29/2003; 23:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 111077)

******$387.9******

The scariest aspect of this gold market is a niggling fear that, through criminal manipulation and terror, gold could remain in the domain of the elites. On a more optimistic note, the financial transition that we watch for and wait to see unfold is probably unstoppable.

NTgeo

(10/30/2003; 00:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 111078)

***393.5***

So the price of gold rises again in US$ but here in OZ the A$ price subsides as our dollar rises. It's a bit scary for those of us who hold Australian gold stocks as they struggle to regain the upwards momentum they had a few weeks ago. But if and when the magic $400 barrier is broken hopefully the fireworks wil start!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/30/2003; 01:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 111079)

An Invitation to Prospective Clients....

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Dollar Bill

(10/30/2003; 03:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111080)

">"

I rarely see news on the french themselves.

"...Writing in the International Herald Tribune, veteran correspondent John Vinocur last week reported on the criticism of France -- by French intellectuals -- that dominates that country's best-seller lists. He notes that "the notion of a rapid descent of France's influence is receiving wide acknowledgment within the French establishment."

Several books, whose titles include "French Arrogance," "France in Disarray" and "France in Free Fall," slam "a decadent France, adrift from its brilliant past, incapable of inspiring allegiance or emulation, and without a constructive, humanist plan for the future."

Italians have noted France's deep vein of pessimism as well. La Stampa's Paris correspondent described France as "Sunset Boulevard," and noted the "darkness" descending over the country and the fear that follows in its wake.

Of course, some of that language needs to be taken with a grain of salt. France's decline is a mirror in which Italians view their own place in the world. One Italian news weekly cited a sociologist who pointed out that France is in decline while Italy's outlook is more optimistic.

But the problem is not France's alone. Increasing numbers of economists worry that Germany is about to succumb to the "Japanese disease" and that the entire European Union is flirting with stagnation"

DummyANI

(10/30/2003; 03:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 111081)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7 <---normal-short
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993�c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838�c plus4293�c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542�c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053�c plus1757�c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108�c plus2055�c...387.0

D-ANI: Mitsui is sinking under water very rapidly. New trader may be started his job.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Notnick99

(10/30/2003; 05:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111082)

Freedom of Speech...and I see the metals doing well this morning

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/conspiracytheories/index.htmlMy wife and I watched the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) production "The Fifth Estate" last night with a renewed faith in the freedom of speech. It seems that some internet conspiracy theories are now in the mainstream for consideration. It's well worth a look at their website. One can make up one's own mind.

21mabry

(10/30/2003; 06:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 111083)

(No Subject)

There are two interesting articles at one of the other sites on sharelynx.They are the articles on Mceconomics where the price of a big mac is used to show if a currency of a country is over or undervalued,compared to the U.S.D. Another article is the one on uhaul economics where the economic health of an area is measured by the price of a uhaul rental between it and a particular place.Using the price of one way rentals each way there relative economic state is measured.These are two simplistic yet ingenious ways these authors have come up with ,these products are used widely and all understand them.21

Operative

(10/30/2003; 07:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 111084)

@ 21 Mabry, some additional fodder for your thoughts this am.

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/inflation.htm

Big Question: What is the reason for this horrendous erosion of the purchasing power of a dollar?

Answer: The absence of a gold standard (since 1933) to restrain the Federal Reserve allowed the banking system to create piles of new dollars and debt out of thin air. For proof of this answer, see the following statements of Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan >

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit (debt creation)" - Alan Greenspan (#8), 1966

"It was the case that the price level in 1929 was not much different, on net, from what it had been in 1800. But, in the two decades following the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, the consumer price index in the United States nearly doubled. And, in the four decades after that, prices quintupled. Monetary policy, unleashed from the constraint of domestic gold convertibility, has allowed a persistent over issuance of money. As recently as a decade ago, central bankers, having witnessed more than a half-century of chronic inflation, appeared to confirm that a fiat currency was inherently subject to excess." - Chairman Alan Greenspan Before the Economic Club of New York, New York City December 19, 2002 "Issues for Monetary Policy" (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021219/)

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit (debt creation)." by Allan Greenspan

Comment: A link worthy of a fresh pot of coffee and some reading time.

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 07:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 111085)

Less than 30 mins ago!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20031030/bs_nm/economy_gdp_dcGDP Growth Strongest Since 1984

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy rocketed ahead at its fastest pace in more than 19 years in the third quarter of 2003 as consumers, their wallets fattened by tax cuts, went on a buying spree, an unexpectedly strong government report showed on Thursday.

U.S. gross domestic product surged at a 7.2 percent annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said. It was the strongest advance since the first quarter of 1984 and more than double the second quarter's 3.3 percent rate.

The increase handily outstripped consensus forecasts on Wall Street, where most economists had looked for a gain closer to 6 percent.

Consumer spending rose at a hefty 6.6 percent pace as lower tax withholding on paychecks and child tax credit checks put more cash into shoppers' hands. It was the biggest increase in consumer outlays since early 1988.

The report was certain to be heralded by the Bush administration, which has been happy to trumpet the impact its recent tax cuts have had in spurring a sluggish recovery.

Congress passed a $350 billion White House tax plan in the spring that lowered tax-withholding rates in July and pumped out about $13.7 billion dollars in child tax credit checks in July and August.

Most economists expect growth to cool but come in around a solid 4 percent in the final quarter of the year and through 2004. But some have expressed lingering concerns that growth could falter as the tax-cut impact fades, particularly if jobs growth -- which has been sorely lacking -- does not pick up soon.

Business spending, which has been lacking even as the economy climbed out of recession, rose 11.1 percent in the third quarter, the steepest climb since the first quarter of 2000 and the second straight quarterly advance. Cuts in business spending had long been the missing link for a more broad-based recovery as firms showed a reluctance to commit to long-term spending plans.

The third-quarter increase in business investment reflected a sharp pick-up in spending on equipment and software, which moved forward at a 15.4 percent annual pace. In contrast, spending on structures dipped.

A shrinking in the U.S. trade deficit also helped growth, and ensured that sales of U.S.-produced goods and services rose at an even faster pace than GDP (news - web sites) -- a 7.8 percent increase that marked the strongest performance in over 25 years.

Government spending also rose, even though defense spending was flat after giving a big boost to growth in the second quarter.

The report also offered a sign that inflation was starting to move up after a sharp slowdown earlier this year that fueled worry over the possibility of deflation. The price index for consumer spending, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate, accelerating from the second quarter's 1.1 percent advance.

Comment: The "Spin" goes on!

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 07:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111086)

And more!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031030/economy_jobless_4.htmlReuters
UPDATE - US jobless claims fall, employment costs rise
Thursday October 30, 9:06 am ET

(Combines with employment costs report, adds details)
WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The total number of Americans filing initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 last week from a revised 391,000 the previous week, the government said on Thursday, in a sign of a convalescing U.S. job market.

In a separate report, the government said employment costs rose on burgeoning health and pension costs for workers in the three-month period through September.

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell to 386,000 in the week ended Oct. 25, the Labor Department said. Claims would have been lower by between 5,000 and 10,000 if not for labor disputes in the grocery store and transportation industries in California and other states, a Labor economist said.

The new claims figure was close to expectations of analysts polled by Reuters, who were expecting 385,000. The closely watched four-week moving average fell to its lowest level in eight months.

The four-week average fell to 388,750 from 393,500 the previous week. Economists view the four-week moving average as a more reliable indicator for the jobless trends than the sometimes volatile weekly figures.

First-time claims have been below the key 400,000 mark for four straight weeks. Most economists consider claims below the 400,000 threshold as a sign of recovery.

The number of people who have already claimed a week of benefits rose to 3.57 million in the Oct. 18 week from 3.51 million the week before.

Labor also said its Employment Cost Index, a broad gauge of what employers pay in wages, salaries and benefits, increased 1 percent in the July through September period. The rise was in line with the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters, who had forecast a 0.9 percent rise.

Benefit costs outpaced wages and salaries in the third quarter, jumping 1.5 percent. Wages and salaries rose 0.7 percent.

In the 12-month period through the third quarter, total employment costs rose 3.9 percent, compared with a 3.7 percent increase in the September 2001 through September 2002 period

Clink!

(10/30/2003; 07:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 111087)

*** $387.8 ***

According to 'The Fourth Turning', we are on the threshold of a 'Crisis' period (after an 'Unraveling'). While I still have difficulty making predictions with any theory which is back-fitted to history (you don't drive by looking in the rear view mirror), particularly one which takes US-only timing as its clock, I think we would all agree that there is an inordinate amount of creaking and groaning from the timbers holding up the current edifice of the world politico-economic building.
As someone once almost said, "All we have to be afraid of is what we are afraid of" (Let's not quit our day jobs to become political speechwriters yet, Toolie !). At the forum, we get early warning of what is coming down the pike. This information is particularly alarming when we see an almost total absence of the same view of things in the popular press and TV. But it is really just a question of the inertia in the system. Masses of people cannot change their perceptions overnight, and that is reflected by the news editors - whether this is just a natural reflection or a more sinister manipulation, I don't know (Never assign to conspiracy that which can be explained by stupity, after all). I don't know about the others at this table, but I am seeing a sea change in perceptions both in the media and among my friends and colleagues concerning criticism of Iraq, the economy, China, corporate cronyism, you name it, it wasn't there six months ago apart from isolated incidents - it was always Enron and Arthur Anderson rather than all derivatives traders, Wall St firms, major banks and the other big accounting firms. An example - this week's Newsweek has a most unflattering photo of the President on the cover looking downright worried along with the caption "Bush's $87 billion problem", and several pages inside on related topics (eg Halliburton's 'overcharging'). To me this shows that the US public is beginning to realize what has been common knowledge in other parts of the world for some time - the party is over.
So what really scares me (struggles to get back on topic...) is a Dr. Strangelove situation where someone in the US military doesn't agree to go with everyone else, and has the weapons to prove it. Hopefully, my fears are baseless, but we shall see.
C!

Economan

(10/30/2003; 08:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 111088)

*****$381.60*****

I think the scariest aspect of this gold market is all the paper contracts that push the price around and distort things.(Thats why my favorite investment is my physical gold).

Cavan Man

(10/30/2003; 08:27:15 MDT - Msg ID: 111089)

cockerell

5000/391,000........that's like a deck chair falling off the Titanic.

Clink!

(10/30/2003; 08:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 111090)

Reality check

As Cockerell reported while I was typing my last message, this is Great News !! The Recovery is with us !! Yippee !!

Which makes the fact that the markets opened up and promptly tanked rather strange, don't you think ? I just don't think people - even Wall St traders - are willing to (totally) believe this BS any more.

C!

a nation of one

(10/30/2003; 08:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 111091)

... ergo ...

As long as bad news gets the messenger killed, good news will be needed to get the king re-elected. So as long as the king controls the news, the news will always be good.

Reality though, that's another thing.

But it will sink in sooner or later.

heavy mettle

(10/30/2003; 08:50:44 MDT - Msg ID: 111092)

Random thoughts on the currency markets; yuan, dollar and commodity currencies

I don't post often here and for good reason. There is nothing worth mentioning that hasn't already been said much better by more august posters. Having said that something has came to mind that I thought I would share.

Commodity currencies have been on a rampage recently due to the underlying resources that back them. I would think that as China grows and demands more resources for production and manufacturing, the yuan will compete for those out-sourced resources.

How long can China's yuan/dollar derivatives held in US Treasuries, which are currently losing value, be kept still and not used for more productive purposes. With the yuan/dollar losing value compared to what they must pay for in the way of commodities from nations such as Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, etc., China will only take the pain for so long before either liberating their dollar reserves or re-valuing the yuan.

The question is will they politically be stubborn and keep the yuan under wraps while selling T-bills or a combination there of. At home in the US, politicians may be gambling on the fact that they know China must start to feel the pain of the inflation of commodities thus, hopefully, re-valuing the yuan as requested to do so. This would enhance their credibility at home while taking credit for market forces rather than diplomacy. If the gamble pays off, then everyone gets a slap on the back while the real problem of diminishing reserves are hidden and ignored.

This has all been said before however the price of commodities and the producing country's paper representing them will force someone's hand soon as they continue to appreciate against the yuan. I think China will throw a bone to the US dollar and slightly re-value the yuan while not investing as much of their surplus back into US investments.

The world's engine of growth is slowly shifting to China and as it's affairs go, so do the rest of the world's. The dollar will be left behind. It would seem that a gradual balancing and shifting of cargo to another ship is continuing.

heavy mettle

(10/30/2003; 08:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 111093)

**** $390.5 ****

The most frightening event would be the loosening of monetary control before my physical offtake program is complete. As well, how much is enough to get the corporeal and friends across the river. All mentioned before.

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 08:58:00 MDT - Msg ID: 111094)

Clink! - msg#: 111087

"So what really scares me (struggles to get back on topic...) is a Dr. Strangelove situation where someone in the US military doesn't agree to go with everyone else, and has the weapons to prove it."

Sir Clink, that statement really scares me!

Read the "link" posted by Notnick99, couple it with your statement above, and who knows who could pull that proverbial string or "push that little red button".

As scary goes, IMO, you Sir, take the cake.

(10/30/2003; 09:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111095)

volume

By my eye the Comex volume is as heavy as I have ever seen it. Would be great to have a feed to the comex floor to hear all the action!!

G$

gvc

(10/30/2003; 09:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 111096)

******$376.0****** contest guess

The scariest part of the gold market is what the world will be like after gold finishes its bull run. How different will this world of ours will be. Many here may end up rich, but will they be able to actually enjoy their new found wealth. How sad it will truly be if , after a 21 year long bear market, that we goldbugs may not be able to bask in glorious gold bull that we all have patiently been waiting for. On the other hand, mabey things will end up being great, but something tells me there will be a bit of pain along the way.. HAPPY AND SAFE HALLOWEEN TO ALL. :)

Zhisheng

(10/30/2003; 09:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 111097)

Strange Day at the Market

Right G$. Heavy volume and unusual action. Get the feeling quite a struggle is going on at the Comex.

The Hoople

(10/30/2003; 09:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 111098)

$390 sellers?

When I consider a trade I think about who is taking the opposite side and why. While watching the enormous battle at $390 today in the Comex I could only conclude a short sale here is probably the worst trade on the planet (unless you had unlimited funds or printing presses). You would be betting against the trend, fundamentals, technicals, and a key breakout point that could have you offsides by a huge margin. In addition you would be flapping in the daily winds of world crises, dollar devaluation, hedge unwinding and derivative neutron bombs. All this risk for a trade that seems to have strong underpinnings only $8 - $10 lower, so in effect a scalp trade. In short it would be an insane trade that I personally could lose much sleep over if attempted. There is only one group responsible for such hubris. Cabal is their name, manipulation is their game.

VanRip

(10/30/2003; 10:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 111099)

Question for the Finance Folks

Quick question to the finance folks here:

Blake Blade's report yesterday stated that Warren Buffet is sitting on a stash of some 24 billion. I assume it's cash. He doesn't like stocks or bonds and recently sold some 9 billion dollars worth of long terms.

So where does he park 24 billion? Do these guys with these kinds of dollars use treasuries? Or brokerage accounts? Often wondered. Aren't even treasuries risky?

Did read somewhere once that Ross Perot has all his skillions in short term treasury bills.

ceceilbruner

(10/30/2003; 10:42:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111100)

**** 399.60 ****

The thing that scares me most about the gold wars is failure.
If we lose our children's future is in jeopardy.
If we lose the FED wins and they are the darkest of the dark lords(Sauron squared).

PS
First time poster.
I would like to thank our hosts for organizing this forum.

CB

Paper Avalanche

(10/30/2003; 10:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 111101)

@ G$

It appears that the slug fest is turning into a cage match on the COMEX. Per the latest charts I am inclined to believe that the new floor is $385 and that the central banks will pull out any and all stops to suppress POG in excess of $390. This is my layman's / non-TA analysis of the recent charts.

PA

Clink!

(10/30/2003; 11:08:37 MDT - Msg ID: 111102)

@cockerel1

Yeah, I guess it's difficult to top annihilation of the planet for scary !
C!

Operative

(10/30/2003; 11:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 111103)

The CNBC Cheer

Repeated every 3 minutes all morning long:
Give me a G
Give me a D
Give me a P
Give me a 7.2
What do you have?

According to the markets reaction, or lack thereof, not much!

However, the fun is not over yet. The exhausted cheerleaders are now scratching thier uh...heads, and trying to come up with a reason for the lack of performance on Fall St. Meanwhile, the PM's have barely lifted an eyebrow to this latest of "officical" govt figures, and have bravely held the line of scrimmage. This is the face of a sharp bop down on the spot price of gold before the stock markets even opened this morning. If "they" were hoping for a day of "shock & awe" against the goldbugs, I think they need to rethink again.

21mabry

(10/30/2003; 11:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111104)

Today

Gold on a little rollercoaster ride.Snow before the senate,did anyone see Sarbanes grill him and the way Snow rolled his eyes when Sarbanes mentioned Warren Buffets latest comments on the U.S. economy.21

a nation of one

(10/30/2003; 11:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 111105)

To Clink! (10/30/03; 11:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 111102)

You say: "...I guess it's difficult to top annihilation
of the planet for scary !"

Oh, I don't know. The end of the universe would do it.
And -like I said- things could keep going the way they
are. If so, then entropy will put an end to everything.
Without exception.

Operative

(10/30/2003; 11:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111106)

China Planning U.S. Shopping Spree to Cool Trade Tensions

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAY07Z3FMD.html
China Planning U.S. Shopping Spree to Cool Trade Tensions

BEIJING (AP) - China is going on a shopping spree in the United States, hoping to ease trade tensions before Premier Wen Jiabao visits Washington in December, American officials say.
Wen told U.S. officials about the plan during a visit to Beijing this week by Commerce Secretary Don Evans, officials who took part in the meetings said. They said "buying missions" were to visit the United States in coming months.
Beneficiaries could include Boeing Co., General Electric Co. and suppliers of telecommunications and chemical equipment.

Comment: China already trading in all those new colored US dollars? Makes sense to me, trade the paper for jets and equipment, anything which has value.

Operative

(10/30/2003; 11:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111107)

Massachusetts Pension Board Pulls $1.7 Billion From Mutual Fund Company Accused of Fraud

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA67QI4FMD.htmlMassachusetts Pension Board Pulls $1.7 Billion From Mutual Fund Company Accused of Fraud

BOSTON (AP) - The Massachusetts pension board voted unanimously Thursday to withdraw $1.7 billion from accounts managed by Putnam Investments, the Boston mutual fund company accused this week of defrauding investors.
While other states are reviewing their investments in Putnam, the fifth-largest mutual fund company, the action by the Massachusetts board made Putnam's home state the first to divest.
Even before Tuesday's filings, State Treasurer Tim Cahill said he watching Putnam because of poor performance.
"We've got to have confidence in the people we pay large fees to manage our money," said Cahill, whose office oversees $29 billion in retirement savings for public employees. "At this moment we do not have that confidence."
Several other states, including Connecticut, have placed the company on its watch list because of the allegations.
A Putnam spokeswoman did not immediately return a call for comment.

Comment: State Treasurer Tim Cahill is looking for "confidence" eh? Anyone know this man and can introduce him to our fine host? I am sure he could find what he is looking for in all the fine folks at CPM, and gold.

Magister Aurelius

(10/30/2003; 12:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 111108)

*****$388.60*****

The scariest thing about the gold market currently is the chance that no matter what goldbugs do, so many people have no concept of money and economics, gold will never become a stable store of value in the United States ever again. Here's a quote of what you may hear in the future, "My debit/credit card is a gold card, so I hold gold."

(10/30/2003; 12:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 111109)

10 703

My machine shows 10,703 contracts traded basis DEC. That is the heaviest volume day I can recall. A move hard one way or the other is afoot. This is just the beginning. Wait till gold is moving $25 a day either way day after day. Then we will see what we are made of!! : )

G$

Clink!

(10/30/2003; 12:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111110)

@ ANOO

Hmm. Now we are getting to the existential questions - if the Earth was wiped out in a nuclear holocaust and all trace of humanity was wiped out (apart from some spacecraft and the electromagnetic 'noise' of all radio transmissions we have emitted), would we really care about the rest of the universe ?
C!
Or, to be more precise, would we be scared about what could happen to the rest of the universe ?

Operative

(10/30/2003; 12:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 111111)

@ G$

One other strange event of today is that while spot gold took a little ride down, Newmont (NEM) is up about .07 on a larger then normal volume exceeding 5 million shares. It is my understanding that NEM is a favorite gold stock of the funds so perhaps they are betting more on the UPSIDE than the downside? Most interesting day to say the least.

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 12:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111112)

THE "KING OF THE HILL" report for Thursday !

WOWSERS -- I leave for half a day and everyone has a WILD PARTY !
At least the Castle is still standing !

Today the KING OF THE HILL passed through many owners, but ended with Sir Wiley !

**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004

The NEXT one is the ONE to BE ! <;-)
Good luck all.

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 13:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111114)

COMEX GOLD data REPORT UPDATE !! <;-)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GCDec 03 COMEX GOLD Contract Data

10/20/03 OI 163,735
10/21/03 Open $377.0 HIGH $382.5 low $373.4 SETTLE $382.0 CHANGE +$7.6 OI 171,570
10/22/03 Open $384.0 HIGH $388.0 low $380.9 SETTLE $386.8 CHANGE +$4.8 OI 173,505
10/23/03 Open $387.2 HIGH $388.1 low $383.3 SETTLE $385.0 CHANGE -$1.8 OI 175,879
10/24/03 Open $385.8 HIGH $393.0 low $384.3 SETTLE $389.2 CHANGE +$4.2 OI 183,300
10/27/03 Open $387.7 HIGH $389.0 low $386.0 SETTLE $388.2 CHANGE -$1.0 OI 183,756
10/28/03 Open $386.2 HIGH $388.7 low $383.0 SETTLE $383.4 CHANGE -$4.8 OI 181,725
10/29/03 Open $380.5 HIGH $388.2 low $380.3 SETTLE $387.0 CHANGE +$3.6 OI 187,445
10/30/03 Open $390.7 HIGH $392.0 low $382.5 SETTLE $384.4 CHANGE -$2.6
===
Looks like is was a REAL FUN DAY !
Wait until we see the OI on Monday ! INTERESTING !
<;-)

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 13:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 111115)

Clink! - msg#: 111110

Sir Clink, your latest message together with your "scary" Dr. Strangelove-type scenario, makes me want to think of simpler, more down-to-earth, nostalgic times.

So, as a semi-retired grandfather, and with winter approaching, I have decided to devote my early afternoons, starting today, watching some "old" American heroes.

Today it is "The Duke himself" in "B

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 13:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 111116)

Clink! - msg#: 111110

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 13:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111117)

Sorry!

Didn't realize the first post had entered. Can't always control the "Pebcak" in my system.

commish

(10/30/2003; 13:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 111118)

Contest

*** 379.60 ***
Will the man behind the curtin. Please stand up. Please stand up.

White Rose

(10/30/2003; 14:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 111119)

Contest

*** 381.2 ***

There are so many systems where somebody has decided to rig it. The oil supply, the gold supply, the money supply, etc. etc. We are facing a rather major breakdown.

Why do I often feal like I was visiting Poland in 1938, trying to convince local Jews to get out of the country?

There are so many reasons to stay where you are. There are very simple reasons to do something radical. Of over 3,000,000 Polish Jews in 1938, only 50,000 survived the war in Poland proper (yes, I know that 250,000 fled to Russia during the war and returned).

Mr Gresham

(10/30/2003; 15:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111120)

Victory ("?")

In the long run, we're all going to be "right" -- they're just not going to make it easy for us. (This system is ingrained into us all, and purging it will be painful all around.)

Just so the "victory" does not turn into "ashes in your mouth", make sure to keep all your real values, and real wealth, uppermost in mind. This lesson-learning here (about gold) is simply a wonderful building-block, either to begin learning about that wealth (which I suspect none of us are really beginners at), or to build our strength in remembering it through the hardest challenges.

And good company helps, as it always does in difficult human endeavors.

Too much good stuff to keep up with reading, as always. Whew!

R Powell

(10/30/2003; 15:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111121)

******* 385.8 **********

Scariest thing about the gold market?

I've been pondering this question for a few days now intent upon deciding on what most scares me. After some thought I decided to focus on something that scares me. Then I decided to find anything that scares me.

I've watched the price of tangibles rise as the relative value of the US dollar has weakened. I've watched prices of necessities rise even though the government, in its wisdom, continues to state that there is no price inflation. I've watched soybeans rise from about $5.00/bushel to over $8.00. I've watched cotton rise from $0.30/lb to over $0.80. I've watch copper increase by 50% and most meat products rise drastically. The overall commodity index, the CRB, has been steadily rising.

What scares me about the price of gold rising from below $300/ounce to almost $400/ounce? Nothing, nothing at all!! I believe this is just what it should be doing considering the monetary inflation and the inevitable, resulting depreciation of fiat currency.
The price of gold is doing just what it is supposed to, all is well with gold and market forces will tolerate misrepresentation and manipulation for only so long. Gold possesses endurance!
Rich

Remarx

(10/30/2003; 15:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 111122)

**** $384.6 ****

The scariest thing about this gold market is what is implied by the fact that newbies like me --who have never spent much time thinking along the lines of financial security-- are becoming more and more invested in precious metals. The "newbie index" has to be a primary indicator, up there with unemployment figures.

Buongiorno!

(10/30/2003; 15:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 111123)

Contest

****$379.00****

Scariest thing? Lots of stuff, perhaps the most scary is the huge number of everyday Americans who own absolutely no gold except what's filling their teeth. They are out on the water, storm coming, and no golden life jacket. They don't always have to wear their jacket--but if they don't have one, they can't wear it! Sometimes a life jacket just makes a difficult situation easier to manage. (Hope that is all we face.) But it also can mean the difference between life and death.

And that is what really scares me--just look at the Los Angeles and Watts riots and we see how bad and ugly it can be. And those folks were just letting off a little steam. They did not really have all that much to bitch about.

Worth a thought? Got your golden life jacket?

Enjoy Halloween--say hi to the kiddies--Buongiorno!

Jing Zu

(10/30/2003; 16:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111124)

**** $387.0 ****

The "Scariest Aspect" of THIS gold market is the fact that it is manipulated by some type of "force". So that it seems is hard to put one's finger on who or what is doing the manipulation. Just look at what happened today! 392 and back to 383.6�.What is going on with this commodity?

Of course, I am very happy to be a member of this USAGold discussion forum so that I am able to weigh ALL the different avenue's and try and come up with a logical answer to this phenomenon. Although, I have not done so yet. So many theories��

Thank you Gandalf the White, for your dedication!

Get Gold NOW! The price is right!

Boilermaker

(10/30/2003; 16:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111125)

China Deal?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/54808/1/.htmlI get the feeling that while the the Bush man and his stupid sidekick the Snow man didn't get the Chinese to back off their currency peg, he might have gotten them to rein-in the North Koreans. It's recently reported that the N. Koreans are agreeing to talks about their nuclear weapons program.

If this trade-off is accurate it demonstrates that China is now playing in the big leagues, speaking softly but carrying a big stick. Their big stick is a monster load of US Treasuries and a growing economy. No armies needed.

Boilermaker

omegaman

(10/30/2003; 16:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 111126)

******390.90******

The scariest thing about this gold market...when gold really takes off, will the rest of the market crumble and if so then what happens. As a friend of mine used to say, that is "the big if."

a nation of one

(10/30/2003; 16:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 111127)

To Clink! (10/30/03; 12:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 111110)

The matter is not what would concern us if the world were
destroyed, but what scares us now.

Federal_Reserves

(10/30/2003; 17:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 111128)

GDP versus Industrial Production

US GDP up a massive 7.2%

US Industrial Production up a measely 1%

That should tell us all this recovery is a complete fraud!

Where's the beef?

21mabry

(10/30/2003; 17:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 111129)

China

Instead of holding all that U.S. currency China could use it to update their infrastructure,they could buy heavy equipment,high tech.I would think this would be better then holding paper.21

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 18:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 111130)

GUESS WHAT HAPPENED Sir Soc ?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe P&F chart makers REVISED their Chart !!
The $380. low did NOT occur in their minds
(AS I HAD projected through my NEW Crystal Ball !) and the REVERSE was only a figment of everyone's imagination !
RESULT --- NO three little RED "O"'s for yesterday action!!!
I am ROFL (not at you but the chartists !) Go figure !!
Don't worry about it now, but please review the chart and give us your readings on the PO !
Thanks Sir Soc.
<;-)

Ten Bears

(10/30/2003; 18:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 111131)

*******372.0*******

http://www.harbornet.com/folks/theedrich/hive/Hell.htmThe scariest thing, the thing that I most fear is that a gold price boom will only occur if the doomsayers like theedrich are proven correct.(the referenced material represents the views theedrich, and those not of Tenbears)

Druid

(10/30/2003; 18:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 111132)

Federal_Reserves (10/30/03; 17:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 111128)

Druid: FR, I'm of the opinion that this fiction is a signal to the bond market that higher rates are on their way. Bond yields all across the yield curve should start seriously trending up. This will be interesting because Maximus and his boys will be on the buying end trying to maintain some semblance of an orderly "free" market. The only way the economy grew at this high a rate was in some virtual reality setting where those inputting the data were smoking some low-grade crack.

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 18:16:26 MDT - Msg ID: 111133)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA LAST CALL UPDATE !!! POG contest,

Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 18:00 (Denver time) THURSDAY 10/30/03

ONLY about SIX (6) hours to go before ENTRY DEADLINE at MIDNIGHT Denver time !!!!
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries

*** $8,753.0 **** Cavan Man (10/29/03; 14:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 111037)

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

*** $8,751.9 **** specie-man (10/29/03; 21:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 111070)

**** $421.5 **** sstins (10/29/03; 11:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 111029)

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $411.5 **** Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $405.0 **** mdgc (10/29/03; 22:54:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111075)

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924)

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.1 **** Humble Pie (10/29/03; 14:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 111040)
**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.6 **** ceceilbruner (10/30/03; 10:42:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 111100)

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906

**** $398.6 **** Yellow Metal (10/28/03; 23:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111006
**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $398.0 **** Noble1 (10/29/03; 18:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111055)

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.3 **** steady (10/28/03; 14:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110981

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.2 **** HighPtFarm (10/29/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 111019)

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.5 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (10/28/03; 10:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110963
**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $393.5 **** NTgeo (10/30/03; 00:01:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 111078)

**** $393.0 **** Cytek (10/29/03; 22:05:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 111072)

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.5 **** The Hoople (10/28/03; 10:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110966)

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $392.0 **** Guided (10/28/03; 17:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110990)

**** $391.8 **** Shermag (10/29/03; 19:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111066)

**** $391.6 **** Toolie (10/29/03; 18:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 111058)
**** $391.5 **** Yukon (10/29/03; 23:16:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 111076)

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $390.9 **** omegaman (10/30/03; 16:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 111126)

**** $390.5 **** heavy mettle (10/30/03; 08:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 111093)
**** $390.4 **** Tate (10/29/03; 16:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111046)

**** $390.2 **** phil288 (10/29/03; 15:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111043)

**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948

**** $389.1 **** Tevye (10/29/03; 15:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111042)

**** $388.6 **** Magister Aurelius (10/30/03; 12:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111108)
**** $388.5 **** Time For GOLD (10/29/03; 19:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111065

**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $387.9 **** timbervision (10/29/03; 23:57:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111077)
**** $387.8 **** Clink! (10/30/03; 07:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 111087)

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942
**** $387.0 **** Jing Zu (10/30/03; 16:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 111124)
**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955

**** $386.4 **** RDM208 (10/29/03; 16:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111047

**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951

**** $385.8 **** R Powell (10/30/03; 15:13:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 111121)

**** $385.4 **** Casey (10/29/03; 09:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111021)

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $384.6 **** Remarx (10/30/03; 15:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 111122

**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004
**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $382.0 **** Albatros (10/29/03; 07:29:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 111018)

**** $381.6 **** Economan (10/30/03; 08:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 111088)

**** $381.2 **** White Rose (10/30/03; 14:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 111119

**** $380.0 **** goldenboy (10/29/03; 07:23:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 111016)

**** $379.6 **** commish (10/30/03; 13:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111118

**** $379.0 **** Buongiorno! (10/30/03; 15:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 111123)

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936

**** $376.5 **** Goldbug 1 (10/29/03; 18:25:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 111057

**** $376.0 **** gvc (10/30/03; 09:23:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111096)

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927

**** $365.7 **** Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946

**** $365.0 **** 1340cc (10/28/03; 09:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110957
===
IF, I have missed anyone's entry posting, PLEASE YELL at me!! Thanks
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 18:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 111134)

I caught you sneaking in under the back door there, Sir Ten Bears !! <;-)

I have added you to the MASTER List @ $372.0
That number is taken ALL !
<;-)

Druid

(10/30/2003; 18:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 111135)

*****$378.10****

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi
Druid: The scariest thing about this gold market is indicated at the link I provided. The value of the dollar is approaching zero and at some point between .05 and 0 a new way of life for better or worse will be underway.

Goldendome

(10/30/2003; 18:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 111136)

7 % growth in GDP--Ha! A Sham

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmFrom Dave Lewis Caos-onomics: Snippet:
-------------------------------------------

Today I read that GDP rose at a 7.2% annual growth rate in the third quarter. From a longer term perspective, US GDP has risen by some $1.2Tln in nominal terms since the beginning of 2000. This seems like a good thing, BUT. Over the same period of time, US indebtedness has risen, according to the Federal Reserve, by some $7.1Tln of which roughly half is private sector debt. In other words, the nation has borrowed $7 for every $1 of GDP growth since the beginning of 2000. Additionally the Bureau of Labor Statistics informs me that some 2.4M jobs have been lost over that period of time. GDP is rising but at a huge cost in terms of debt and jobs. Something isn't right.
----------------------------------------------
Gdome:

This like, Sir Fed. Reserves report a few postings back helps to show this growth is just a debt inflation sham; a mirage. This is consumer capitalism at it's worst. Where are the jobs going?-- Asia!!! The Gov't gives away tax refunds; they immediately are spent at Walmart (probably with more debt added); and Walmart cycles the money to China; China then re-cycles it back to the U.S. so that we can buy and go furthur into debt. What maddness. The Fed. and the politicos must feel this is the way of the world and that it has been, is, and shall be, forevermore.

7% growth! In a pigs eye! Who has seen it? Empty buildings setting everywhere... Closed and broken businesses--everywhere. Jobs gone.

The only thing up up up is Spending and Debt!!!!

TownCrier

(10/30/2003; 19:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111137)

The scariest thing about the gold market...

are the Forum's logos that become mysteriously haunted this time each year.

R.

Boilermaker

(10/30/2003; 19:07:23 MDT - Msg ID: 111138)

*******$382.8*******

I think the gold shorts are scared *$#@^%less. I'm not.

Boilermaker

Max Rabbitz

(10/30/2003; 19:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 111139)

**** $383.7 ****

Just got back from a week trip to Cincinnati (Transylvania) to find this contest. Not sure of the questions or prizes but midnight is fast approaching and that silvery moon is waxing...........

Scariest thing about the gold market is the very few Americans who have any gold insurance at all. What is going to happen to my neighbors and friends when the debts no longer can be covered with new debts and the value of all things is brought into question? When the curtain is parted to reveal a gaggle of little balding old men pulling the stings of a global confidence game will they laugh? Probably not cause the joke is on them. Most people don't like that. They get mad, or go mad, especially when their Florida Retirement plans are put on permanent hold, unless they want to live in a boxcar. Sometimes a bottle of Ripple and a few warm bodies can get you through the night......although the wife can get a little testy. But what will be worse are the mad politicians waiting to feed on the corpse and promising to bring it back to life. A generation or three brought up on the new deal will not understand that the two little slits near their jugular vein were not Constitutionally mandated or even permitted. They'll claim greed was the cause but not look in the mirror. Got to go. I hear a pack of wolves, or is it abandoned house pets, howl as the wind, I think it's the wind, rattles my door. Time to take my medicine. So take care to buy gold and care for it well. A cross made of gold with maybe a little silver trim will hold evil at bay. Paper crosses don't work....ask any wizard.

compwiz4u

(10/30/2003; 20:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 111140)

****409****

The scariest thing about the gold market is that the elites who are using government money to suppress the price are probably buying as much as they can for themselves. So, in the end they will still be in charge.

Trapper

(10/30/2003; 20:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 111141)

*****383.80*****

There is only one thing that is scary about this market. Should we ever get another goverment call in on gold. Don't belive it will happen but desperate people do some desperate things.
Live small. RJ

Cougar

(10/30/2003; 20:45:26 MDT - Msg ID: 111142)

***** $378.50 *****

Most scary part of the Gold Bull is that I'm old enough to be riding the Gold Bull for a SECOND time.

otish mountain

(10/30/2003; 20:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 111143)

*****$388.00******

The scariest thing about this market right now is the release of government figures such as the one today.

7.2% GDP annualized growth rate in 3rd quarter.The best in 19 years.

Hmmm. 2003 minus 19 equals 1984.

The only truth in this news release is 1984, the book that is.

Newspeak is alive and thriving

silvercollector

(10/30/2003; 20:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 111144)

********* $381.00 *********

The scariest aspect of this gold market is the fierce whimps that knocked gold off of the $400 trail AGAIN today.

I would really like to know for sure, once and for all, if its gold 'shorting' freaks or government entities (that are crooked) who are ultimately responsible for the POG.

Good luck to all in the POG guessing game, thanks to MK & Gandy & the USA gang!

Mountain Top

(10/30/2003; 20:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111145)

*****$398.9 *******

The scariest thing to me is that the inexorable climb in price of bullion means that the dollar is losing value at an even faster rate. Consider what that means to all of those folks that are important to us that we have been unable to convince of the true significance of the current situation.

Those of us who taken out the kind of "insurance" that is the subject of this forum know that we have only increased our chances of survival, not guaranteed it. What is to become of those who are totally unprepared?

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 21:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 111146)

KEEP on JUMPING, SPOT ! ONLY THREE (3) hours before POG contest DEADLINE !

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1NICE COMEBACK, SPOT !
JUMP !!!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(10/30/2003; 21:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 111147)

Question for Sir Soc !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PCould it be that today's high of $292. caused yesterday's P&F Chart's 'RED "O"'s REVERSAL' to be "erased" by today's action ?
THEREFORE, the chart is as it was on Tuesday.
You would know far better than I as I can not understand the chartist's thinking ! (other than saving CHART SPACE)
<;-)

cockerel1

(10/30/2003; 21:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 111148)

Observation only!

One of the nice but scary things about this contest is the number of participants. Seems to me that, this year at least, this is a record number of entrants.

Can someone confirm?

Wky_Woodsman

(10/30/2003; 21:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 111149)

Contest

*****$384.5*****The scariest thing about gold is that when the day of reckoning comes, the dollar mongers will learn they have been deceived. It might be a halloween nightmare every night.

Alberta Rose

(10/30/2003; 22:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 111150)

****384.4****

The scariest thing about the gold market is that it might take off like a rocket before I have time to buy a few more of those lovely, shining golden coins.

GoldCoaster

(10/30/2003; 22:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 111151)

***** 377.50 *******

The scariest thing with this Gold bull market is that my $ 's are in a Bull market too and that I can not make enough of them to become a multi kilonaire before it leaves me behind with what I got.

Gold is

(10/30/2003; 23:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 111152)

*********$388.8*********

What scares me most is Govt. involvement. Price controls,
confiscation,ect. Also many people seem to think U.S. economy is in good shape! What will happen when POG goes
to the moon. Between U.S. Govt. and starving masses, we
may be in for a wild ride. We shall wait and see.

Gold is real, get some.

da2g

(10/30/2003; 23:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 111153)

*********$388.30***********

The scariest thing about the price of gold is that it has me entering contests!

Goldendome

(10/30/2003; 23:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 111154)

*****************$ 389.40 *******************

The horsemen ride out bearing the scourges--false peace, dreadful war, famine, plagues, pestilence, poverty, persecution--all about.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The scariest part of a Golden Bull?�Probably, not knowing what will be the driving factors and the mix of ingredients that will drive up the Gold market.

How much will be financial? How much will be political? Add in some righteousness, some greed, megalomania�Who knows how far down the road to world disaster we can go?

The world is embarked on a dangerous path of finance and monetarism that we believe will lead to a Blow-up. This- while those in power, avert their eyes from the obvious.

How bad, and the nature of the blow-up, will determine what is left and worth salvaging. Maybe we get off for a song--but perhaps--we work the salt mine.

Gdome

Gandalf the White

(10/31/2003; 01:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111155)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!

CONTEST ENTRY NOW CLOSED !!! Halloween POG CONTEST ENTRIES "FINAL LISTING" as of MIDNIGHT THURSDAY 10/30/03 !!

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries

*** $8,753.0 **** Cavan Man (10/29/03; 14:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 111037

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (10/26/03; 18:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110867

*** $8,751.9 **** specie-man (10/29/03; 21:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 111070

**** $421.5 **** sstins (10/29/03; 11:08:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 111029

**** $420. 0 **** Zhisheng (10/26/03; 23:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110882

**** $418.2 **** ha_tey_o (10/27/03; 01:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110887

**** $417.5 **** Caradoc (10/26/03; 21:14:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 110875

**** $412.5 **** Rimh (10/26/03; 20:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 110870

**** $411.5 **** Merlinsen (10/28/03; 17:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 110987

**** $410.0 **** Pizz (10/27/03; 10:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 110899

**** $409.0 **** compwiz4u (10/30/03; 20:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 111140

**** $407.5 **** 21mabry (10/26/03; 17:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 110865

**** $405.0 **** mdgc (10/29/03; 22:54:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111075

**** $404.0 **** Joanne (10/27/03; 16:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 110924

**** $403.4 **** Basil (10/27/03; 14:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 110918

**** $402.0 **** a nation of one (10/27/03; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 110900
**** $401.9 **** goldbaron (10/27/03; 04:32:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110891

**** $401.3 **** Smeagol (10/26/03; 20:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110873

**** $400.1 **** Humble Pie (10/29/03; 14:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 111040
**** $400.0 **** Gandalf the White (10/26/03; 17:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110862
**** $399.9 **** glennh10 (10/27/03; 19:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 110933

**** $399.6 **** ceceilbruner (10/30/03; 10:42:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 111100

**** $399.0 **** J-Bullion (10/27/03; 12:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110906
**** $398.9 **** Mountain Top (10/30/03; 20:52:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 111145

**** $398.6 **** Yellow Metal (10/28/03; 23:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111006
**** $398.5 **** yellowmetal (10/27/03; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110923

**** $398.0 **** Noble1 (10/29/03; 18:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111055

**** $397.5 **** Gene (10/27/03; 07:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 110894

**** $396.6 **** Waverider (10/27/03; 13:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 110915

**** $396.3 **** steady (10/28/03; 14:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 110981

**** $396.1 **** Slowman (10/27/03; 04:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 110892

**** $395.6 **** Liberty Head (10/27/03; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 110913
**** $395,5 **** Shanti (10/27/03; 14:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110919

**** $395.2 **** HighPtFarm (10/29/03; 07:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 111019

**** $395.0 **** Sundeck (10/27/03; 13:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 110914

**** $394.7 **** cockerel1 (10/27/03; 14:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 110920

**** $394.5 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (10/28/03; 10:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 110963
**** $394.4 **** CoBra(too) (10/27/03; 10:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110898

**** $393.5 **** NTgeo (10/30/03; 00:01:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 111078

**** $393.0 **** Cytek (10/29/03; 22:05:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 111072

**** $392.8 **** VanRip (10/27/03; 16:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110922

**** $392.5 **** The Hoople (10/28/03; 10:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110966

**** $392.3 **** Solomon Weaver (10/27/03; 11:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 110901

**** $392.0 **** Guided (10/28/03; 17:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 110990
**** $391.8 **** Shermag (10/29/03; 19:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111066

**** $391.6 **** Toolie (10/29/03; 18:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 111058
**** $391.5 **** Yukon (10/29/03; 23:16:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 111076

**** $391.2 **** Black Blade (10/27/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 110903

**** $390.9 **** omegaman (10/30/03; 16:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 111126

**** $390.5 **** heavy mettle (10/30/03; 08:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 111093
**** $390.4 **** Tate (10/29/03; 16:25:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111046

**** $390.2 **** phil288 (10/29/03; 15:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 111043

**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948

**** $389.4 **** Goldendome (10/30/03; 23:34:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 111154

**** $389.1 **** Tevye (10/29/03; 15:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111042

**** $388.8 **** Gold is (10/30/03; 23:01:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111152

**** $388.6 **** Magister Aurelius (10/30/03; 12:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111108
**** $388.5 **** Time For GOLD (10/29/03; 19:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111065

**** $388.3 **** da2g (10/30/03; 23:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 111153)
**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897

**** $388.0 **** otish mountain (10/30/03; 20:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 111143
**** $387.9 **** timbervision (10/29/03; 23:57:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111077
**** $387.8 **** Clink! (10/30/03; 07:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 111087

**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881

**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942
**** $387.0 **** Jing Zu (10/30/03; 16:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 111124
**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955

**** $386.4 **** RDM208 (10/29/03; 16:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111047

**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951

**** $385.8 **** R Powell (10/30/03; 15:13:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 111121

**** $385.4 **** Casey (10/29/03; 09:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111021

**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926

**** $384.6 **** Remarx (10/30/03; 15:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 111122
**** $384.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (10/30/03; 21:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 111149
**** $384.4 **** Alberta Rose (10/30/03; 22:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 111150)

**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004
**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954
**** $383.8 **** Trapper (10/30/03; 20:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 111141
**** $383.7 **** Max Rabbitz (10/30/03; 19:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 111139

**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896

**** $382.8 **** Boilermaker (10/30/03; 19:07:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111138

**** $382.0 **** Albatros (10/29/03; 07:29:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 111018)

**** $381.6 **** Economan (10/30/03; 08:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 111088

**** $381.2 **** White Rose (10/30/03; 14:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 111119

**** $381.0 **** silvercollector (10/30/03; 20:51:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 111144

**** $380.0 **** goldenboy (10/29/03; 07:23:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 111016

**** $379.6 **** commish (10/30/03; 13:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111118

**** $379.0 **** Buongiorno! (10/30/03; 15:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 111123

**** $378.5 **** Cougar (10/30/03; 20:45:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 111142

**** $378.1 **** Druid (10/30/03; 18:29:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 111135

**** $377.5 **** GoldCoaster (10/30/03; 22:56:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 111151)

**** $376.7 **** Gonlyold (10/27/03; 22:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 110936

**** $376.5 **** Goldbug 1 (10/29/03; 18:25:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 111057

**** $376.0 **** gvc (10/30/03; 09:23:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111096

**** $372.5 **** Sprout (10/27/03; 16:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 110927

**** $372.0 **** Ten Bears (10/30/03; 18:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 111131

**** $365.7 **** Topaz (10/28/03; 02:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 110946

**** $365.0 **** 1340cc (10/28/03; 09:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 110957
===
YES INDEED ! This was a GREAT TURNOUT of "Prognostiactors"!!!
Thanks for ALL the SCARIEST items to worry about, AND we shall see just whom gets the TREATS tomorrow afternoon (Denver time) !
IF, somehow, I have missed your entry post, PLEASE YELL at me !!
THANKS AGAIN for your consideration and effort !
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(10/31/2003; 05:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 111156)

An Invitation to Prospective Clients....

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Operative

(10/31/2003; 06:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 111157)

Central Bank Holds Monetary Policy Steady

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAH8YU8GMD.htmlCentral Bank Holds Monetary Policy Steady

TOKYO (AP) - Japan's central bank warned Friday of continuing price declines while pointing to signs of a moderate economic recovery fueled by exports.
Deflation, the price erosion that dampens economic activity by bringing down paychecks and corporate profits, is a major problem in Japan that has pushed up the burden of debts and kept the economy stagnant. The Bank of Japan said in a report released Friday that deflation will continue into next fiscal year which ends March 31, 2005.
Separately, the bank's policy board decided Friday to hold its monetary policy steady and keep ample cash in the financial system at a range of 27 trillion yen to 32 trillion yen ($248 billion to $294 billion).
The bank's forecast for deflation means the central bank will likely maintain its current monetary policy that keeps short-term interest rates at near zero and keeps the financial system flush with cash. The bank has said it will hold that policy until deflation is defeated.
A major cause for concern recently has been the stronger yen. A strong yen hurts Japan's economy because it lowers the value of overseas earnings of this nation's giant exporters. The U.S. dollar has been trading recently between 108 yen and 109 yen, tumbling from as high as 120 yen earlier this year.
Central banks can lower the value of a currency by cutting interest rates, which makes assets denominated in that currency less attractive. Japan's central bank already has interest rates near zero. Tokyo has repeatedly intervened to prop up the dollar by buying the dollar.

Operative

(10/31/2003; 07:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 111158)

The Anti-Gold Camp's Last 'Big Guns'

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2003/1030.htmlThe Anti-Gold Camp's Last 'Big Guns'
by Alex Wallenwein

As laid out in previous essays, the anti-gold forces are on their last float of ice, ice that is quickly melting away before the new (euro vs, dollar) sun's golden rays.
Previously, we listed all the reasons why paper will continue to fall versus gold, and why it will stay that way for many, many years to come. This time, we will present the anti-gold forces� most powerful arguments why gold is not "that" safe an investment -- and why their arguments just don't wash anymore (if they ever really did):
These are the arguments against rising gold; the weapons of the anti-gold publicity war. They are unconvincing, at best. The only real ammunition the anti-gold camp has left, in the end, consists of the few gold-sales scraps the Europeans will throw them in their bid to keep the transition period "smooth" - and whatever unencumbered physical gold there is left in the US national gold stock (the gold that rightfully belongs to the American public, which "they" have no right to even touch). That will not last for very long.
The days of (fiat) dollar supremacy are over. The dollar can only survive if it aligns itself with that crazy yellow stuff.

Comment: A look at why gold must continue it's year long trend upward.

Operative

(10/31/2003; 07:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 111159)

Japan: What is the Bank of Japan Up To?

http://www.mondaq.com/i_article.asp_Q_articleid_E_23143Japan: What is the Bank of Japan Up To?
29 October 2003
In addition, Japanese stocks often take a hint from trading trends in the US market. During the past three months, the best performing sectors in the Dow Jones US indices have been minin and non-ferrous metals, as investors have switched gears and are now trying to discount inflation, not deflation, and continue to expect a weaker US dollar.
Over the past three months, selected mining and non-ferrous metals companies have also been outperforming the Topix, including Furukawa Co., Nittetsu Mining, Mitsui Mining and Smelting and Mitsubishi Materials. Ironically, one pattern seen during the current rally in Japanese stocks has been that the companies with the weaker balance sheets have out-performend their peers. This we see as a reflection of a more sanguine view of bankruptcy risk.
In addition, mining stocks have been outperforming the Topix as a whole, reflecting; a) sharp gains in the underlying global precious metals and industrial metals markets, and b) sharp gains in the mining and non-ferrous sectors in the US market. Ironically, the best performing stocks in the sector have the weakest balance sheets, in keeping one pattern of this rally, where the buying tide is especially favorable for the leakier boats.

Comment: Similar to the USA markets, Precious Metals are moving on up.

Federal_Reserves

(10/31/2003; 08:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 111160)

September consumer spending FELL!

Comes in going down by .3%.

Once again that GDP of 7.2% looks like a phoney.

GDP has risen 8 straight quarters, we have lost 3 million jobs, most since Hoover.

Big mistake to apply that tax stimulus BEFORE the dollar dropped. All the stimulus got exported along with the jobs.

Policy makers really screwed it up. They painted the house without scrapping off the old paint first. Dumb!

cockerel1

(10/31/2003; 08:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 111161)

Reward Money!

As I posted yesterday, I watched the movie "Big Jake" and in it was a very appropriate scene as to what is happening today.

A million dollar randsom was demanded and was presented in the form of newspaper clippings.

Just about what Fiat will be worth shortly.

Oh, one other scene caught my eye. The "Duke" asked his son to hit a coin as he tossed it in the air. Bet it was a silver dollar!

Gandalf the White

(10/31/2003; 09:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 111162)

The P&F Chartists are playing "Tricks" !!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PThe THREE little RED "O"'s are BACK AGAIN from YESTERDAYS data ! I GIVE UP !!!
SOOO, now we need a new little GREEN ROCKET !
<;-(

doco

(10/31/2003; 11:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111163)

GDP LIES

From George Ure:

Auto sales down 6% compared with last year! Oil imports up 23% Defense spending up over 15%! These are the real headlines from the GDP report yesterday, but you're not seeing the real numbers of corporate media. Instead we get happy talk and a Hooveresque "good times are right around the corner."
Holy smokes, is this embarrassing. After spending 15 years as a reporter, I would have given more credit to my one time associates. Brother, was I ever off. Yes, the GDP numbers are completely hosed and in a moment I'll show you where the lies are buried and ask whether reporters can read (or they have no clue how to operate Excel). Or, more likely, they're just parroting what a ratings maven tell's 'em to or what the presidential "briefer" whisper in the media's ear. But let's not get personal. Let's dig up a few facts, shall we?

First, let me give you the link to the underLYING data before I give you a lesson in how to read the numbers: http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdp303a.xls

Now let's go through the spreadsheet page by page and see what we can discover, OK?

The first page is the contents page. It's a contents page -hard to screw this up.

Table 1 shows the percentage changes for the most recent years and quarters. It's here that I first sniffed a rat. Long ago when managing companies I learned to always double check my spread sheets. They can be complicated and it is always worthwhile to turn on the "trace precedents" command which shows you where a particular number came from so you can audit your own work. Keeps out mistakes, right? Well lookee here: In this spreadsheet of "percents" there is NO LINKAGE SHOWN - so we can't trace back and see which number comes from where. You follow my point, right? If you come up with a BIG 7.2% headline increase that is way over expectations, I would like to know where the hell that came from. Table 1, cell T7 is just a number with no links - in fact none of this table is linked, so we can't look at round off errors - none of that.

We go to Table 2 and we find the same thing - no links! Just numbers that could have come off a roulette wheel for all we learn from this spreadsheet. If an accountant prepared a document like this and presented it to me, I'd fire them. I want to know more than "what's the number?" I want to know "Where did that come from?"

Finally at Table 3, we get to some useful numbers - and here's where the real fun begins. I decided to add a worksheet after Table 3 called George's math to see if I could smoke out a little economic truth, because I was beginning to suspise that the people who built this data monster were smoking something else.

The first thing I did was wipe out all but the Billions of current dollars. Everything in column H and to the right is gone.

Then I eliminated column B called "2002"

I kept 2002:Q3 numbers because I want to compare them with 2003 Q3 numbers and see where we get, OK?

So everything else goes bye-bye

So now, we can look at Current dollars - side-by-side, got it? 2002:Q3 right next to 2003:Q3

Now I'm going to add two columns called Delta (2003 minus 2002) to show growth if unsigned, or shrinkage if a - (minus sign)

Then we're going to run out the percentage change ((2003/2002)-1) and call it two places to the right of the decimal point.

Ready for the Eye Poppers that will astound you?

Let me roll 'em out for your dining and dancing pleasure. Remember now, this is Year-on-Year change in current dollars, seasonally adjusted. Off we go:

2002:Q3 2003:Q3 Delta YOY%
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10506.2 11038.4 532.2 5.07%

Whatever the hell happened to the 7.2% happy-talk headline? OK, so the sleight of hand was that the 7.2% was only for the quarter. But let's dig down a bit further and see where the growth was, shall we?

Delta YOY%
Personal consumption expenditures. 7360.7 7766.5 405.8 5.51%

Personal consumption expenditures didn't do much better than our "official 3 1/2% inflation rate which is really more like 8% on a monetary basis...

Delta YOY%
Durable goods................... 897.8 947.0 49.2 5.48%
Motor vehicles and parts...... 400.7 422.9 22.2 5.54%
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 319.2 330.5 11.3 3.54%
Other......................... 177.9 193.5 15.6 8.77%

Hmmm...it was a banner year for "other", but I haven't looked up what that growth was made of. so let's go on to nondurable goods:

Delta YOY%
Nondurable goods................ 2116.9 2265.8 148.9 7.03%
Food.......................... 1024.8 1103.6 78.8 7.69%
Clothing and shoes............ 321.0 334.6 13.6 4.24%
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 178.2 207.6 29.4 16.50%
Gasoline and oil............ 163.5 189.8 26.3 16.09%
Fuel oil and coal........... 14.7 17.8 3.1 21.09%
Other......................... 592.9 619.9 27.0 4.55%

OK, what we see here is that there has been a huge increase in fuel oil and coal, while the rest of the increase in the oil patch was over 16%. That's the first headline that didn't make primetime that should concern you. Moving on to the Service Sector:

Delta YOY%
Services........................ 4346.0 4553.8 207.8 4.78%
Housing....................... 1078.0 1124.0 46.0 4.27%
Household operation........... 406.3 428.0 21.7 5.34%
Electricity and gas......... 147.4 164.9 17.5 11.87%
Other household operation... 258.9 263.1 4.2 1.62%
Transportation................ 276.1 281.6 5.5 1.99%
Medical care.................. 1158.8 1239.6 80.8 6.97%
Recreation.................... 285.9 299.8 13.9 4.86%
Other......................... 1140.9 1180.8 39.9 3.50%

You'll see that Electricity and Gas prices went through the roof...up almost 12%. Medical was up 7%. See what I mean about interesting? Oh it gets better...

Delta YOY%
Gross private domestic investment. 1597.3 1656.0 58.7 3.67%

When you take out monetary inflation, which is running in the same range, you'll see that the amount left over for private investment didn't go anywhere!

Delta YOY%
Fixed investment................ 1579.7 1693.0 113.3 7.17%
Nonresidential................ 1109.8 1149.8 40.0 3.60%
Structures.................. 259.4 257.1 -2.3 -0.89%
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 171.1 174.2 3.1 1.81%
Utilities................. 51.5 42.2 -9.3 -18.06%
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 31.0 35.0 4.0 12.90%
Other structures.......... 5.8 5.7 -0.1 -1.72%
Equipment and software...... 850.4 892.7 42.3 4.97%
Information processing
equipment and software... 406.9 442.5 35.6 8.75%
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 76.8 88.3 11.5 14.97%
Software................ 186.3 195.5 9.2 4.94%
Other................... 143.8 158.8 15.0 10.43%
Industrial equipment...... 153.3 151.9 -1.4 -0.91%
Transportation equipment.. 141.7 138.9 -2.8 -1.98%
Other..................... 148.5 159.3 10.8 7.27%
Residential................... 469.9 543.2 73.3 15.60%
Structures.................. 460.4 532.9 72.5 15.75%
Single family............. 245.3 287.1 41.8 17.04%
Multifamily............... 33.4 36.6 3.2 9.58%
Other..................... 181.7 209.2 27.5 15.13%
Equipment................... 9.5 10.3 0.8 8.42%

These figures speak for themselves, but with investment dropping in utilities, down 18%, we shouldn't be surprised. Surprisingly, there was a good pop in residential construction. Of course you have to take out exports, which seems to have improved a bit (we exported 432.9 in 02 and that was up to 488.6 this year, which looks like an improvement, but the trick shot here is that a lot of that probably went to which small Middle East country that we presently occupy? We'll probably never know...

Delta YOY%
Net exports of goods and services. -432.9 -488.6 55.7 12.87%

The breakdown behind exports goes like this:

Delta YOY%
Exports......................... 1038.6 1059.7 21.1 2.03%
Goods......................... 722.6 724.5 1.9 0.26%
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.5 53.0 3.5 7.07%
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 156.3 168.2 11.9 7.61%
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 301.7 291.5 -10.2 -3.38%
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 82.5 77.6 -4.9 -5.94%
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 86.0 90.7 4.7 5.47%
Other....................... 46.7 43.5 -3.2 -6.85%
Services...................... 316.0 335.1 19.1 6.04%

Imports were way up - more than 5% but more important look at energy imports! Up 23.31%...Yikes!:

Delta YOY%
Imports......................... 1471.5 1548.3 76.8 5.22%
Goods......................... 1220.9 1274.3 53.4 4.37%
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 50.4 54.8 4.4 8.73%
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 163.5 178.4 14.9 9.11%
Petroleum and products...... 110.7 136.5 25.8 23.31%
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 285.3 291.4 6.1 2.14%
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 210.0 205.0 -5.0 -2.38%
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 315.0 329.3 14.3 4.54%
Other....................... 86.0 78.9 -7.1 -8.26%
Services...................... 250.6 274.0 23.4 9.34%

The services imported is going up like crazy because of jobjacking...all those telemarketers in India and the customer service reps in the Philippines..

Now here is the whole point of the so-called recovery: There hasn't been one for most people. The "recovery" if you want to call it that, has been fueled by government spending. Check out the percentage changes:

Delta YOY%
Federal......................... 697.7 784.4 86.7 12.43%
National defense.............. 451.2 520.1 68.9 15.27%
Consumption expenditures.... 388.9 450.3 61.4 15.79%
Gross investment............ 62.4 69.7 7.3 11.70%
Nondefense.................... 246.5 264.3 17.8 7.22%
Consumption expenditures.... 200.9 217.6 16.7 8.31%
Gross investment............ 45.5 46.7 1.2 2.64%
Delta YOY%
State and local................. 1283.3 1320.2 36.9 2.88%
Consumption expenditures.... 1039.6 1071.6 32.0 3.08%
Gross investment............ 243.8 248.5 4.7 1.93%

You got it: Defense spending is up nearly 16% and non-defense spending is up 7.22%. States are getting screwed.

Now think about this: The Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazy. From September 2002 to September 2003 M-1, the narrowest measure of money printed is up 8.11% . With real GDP (less defense spending) up less than 5%

Our colleagues at HalfPastHuman come up with a brand new way of polling public opinion called the "TakeRake" which shows almost no one believes the GDP numbers out yesterday (see http://www.halfpasthuman.com/takerake103003.htm) So although the national financial press corps has either no brains or balls (or both), most common sense folks can see through this latest wool pulling very clearly.

Well, that's the Friday morning rip and rant. I got up at 5 AM to ponder the numbers and that's how they look. Not only do average people see the truth, but if the recovery was anywhere near as robust as the headline number, the market would have popped more than a dozen points, that's for damn sure. If it was real, the market would have charged up 200 or 300. Didn't happen because at least a few folks can still read.

Zhisheng

(10/31/2003; 11:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 111164)

Up into the Close!

A dollar in the last minute of trading, to close up on the day. Fitting end for a volatile week.

Federal_Reserves

(10/31/2003; 12:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 111165)

Money supply shrinking

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdfIts heading straight down!

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf

While GDP hits 7.2% money growth goes negative?

Nice trick, how did they do that? Normally during boom times the money supply expands!

Rippley is running the economy.

Folks are taking money out of the bank.

Where did it go?

Gandalf the White

(10/31/2003; 12:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 111166)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

WOWSERS !! what a week of VOLATILITY in the POG !!!
SPOT and SPIKE are DIZZY from doing the Yoyo dance !
But that is not what I am here to do ---
--
THE Halloween POG Contest on this last day, had the following potential WINNERS ----
--
**** $389.7 **** Cuda (10/28/03; 03:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 110948
**** $389.4 **** Goldendome (10/30/03; 23:34:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 111154
**** $389.1 **** Tevye (10/29/03; 15:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 111042
**** $388.8 **** Gold is (10/30/03; 23:01:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111152
**** $388.6 **** Magister Aurelius (10/30/03; 12:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111108
**** $388.5 **** Time For GOLD (10/29/03; 19:38:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 111065
**** $388.3 **** da2g (10/30/03; 23:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 111153)
**** $388.2 **** DryWasher (10/27/03; 10:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 110897
**** $388.0 **** otish mountain (10/30/03; 20:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 111143
**** $387.9 **** timbervision (10/29/03; 23:57:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 111077
**** $387.8 **** Clink! (10/30/03; 07:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 111087
**** $387.5 **** balzac (10/26/03; 23:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 110881
**** $387.1 **** slingshot (10/28/03; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 110942
**** $387.0 **** Jing Zu (10/30/03; 16:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 111124
**** $386.9 **** goldenpeace (10/28/03; 08:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 110955
**** $386.4 **** RDM208 (10/29/03; 16:38:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 111047
**** $386.0 **** pilgrims_gold (10/28/03; 06:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 110951
**** $385.8 **** R Powell (10/30/03; 15:13:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 111121
**** $385.4 **** Casey (10/29/03; 09:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111021
**** $385.0 **** Dollar Bill (10/27/03; 16:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 110926
**** $384.6 **** Remarx (10/30/03; 15:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 111122
**** $384.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (10/30/03; 21:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 111149
**** $384.4 **** Alberta Rose (10/30/03; 22:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 111150)
**** $384.0 **** wiley (10/28/03; 22:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 111004
**** $383.9 **** Frosty (10/28/03; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 110954
**** $383.8 **** Trapper (10/30/03; 20:33:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 111141
**** $383.7 **** Max Rabbitz (10/30/03; 19:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 111139
**** $383.5 **** Lothar of the Hill People (10/27/03; 09:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 110896
**** $382.8 **** Boilermaker (10/30/03; 19:07:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 111138
---
as the daily RANGE was between the HIGH of $389.8 and the low of $382.2 !!!

THE Settlement price of $384.6 gives us the WINNER as:

SIR Remarx !!!!

with Sir Wky Woodsman and Lady Alberta Rose as the CLOSE Runnersups !!!!

CONGRATULATIONS !!
---
**** $384.6 **** Remarx (10/30/03; 15:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 111122
**** $384.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (10/30/03; 21:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 111149
**** $384.4 **** Alberta Rose (10/30/03; 22:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 111150)
---
Will each of you three WINNERS provide via email to Marie (marie@usagild,com), your real names and the snailmail address to which you wish the PRECIOUS PRIZES to be mailed !
===
AND, once again, let me thank ALL of the 98 entrants to this HALLOWEEN POG CONTEST ! It was great fun and had lots of TRICKS AND TREATS !
<;-)

Remarx

(10/31/2003; 13:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 111167)

!!! Spooky !!!

This must be an omen that I am meant to keep investing in PMs! MANY THANKS to MK and CPM for sponsoring these contests. Where else but this forum could one learn so much about gold, have fun, and even have a shot at winning great prizes?

Wishing everyone a Happy Halloween and a Golden Autumn,
-Sir Remarx

TownCrier

(10/31/2003; 14:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 111168)

Gandalf and contest winners

Numb fingers from Too-Much-Typing Syndrome? I understand... there sure were a lot of contest entries to log and keep track of, but you did a wizardly job, to be sure.

Also to be sure, marie's address (for the three contest winners) is not "marie@usagild,com" but rather as follows:

marie@usagold.com

Congratulations to the winners, and thanks to everyone for their continuing support of USAGOLD and Centennial Precious Metals, your source for goblin-free gold and good times!

R.

cockerel1

(10/31/2003; 14:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 111169)

Thank you and Satisfied!

Thank you!

Thank you all at USAGOLD for running a great contest. It was "scary fun" reading all the thoughts that people have regarding the ever unfolding situation with the world financial situation.

Satisfied!

I for one am satisfied knowing that some of the elites on this board struggle just as much as the rest of us in trying to predict where gold is heading in the near-term. And that is what makes these contests so much fun.
We all know where it will eventually go. TO THE MOON!
But to try and predict where it will be say five or ten days ahead, especially with "questionable" opposition, requires a lot of luck, IMO.

Congratulations to the winners.

commish

(10/31/2003; 18:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 111170)

Congradulations Remax

Oh,ooo,ooo. What a feeling!

Toolie

(10/31/2003; 20:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 111171)

spooky agenda

http://www.terratrc.org/TerraSummary.pdfI don't believe I've seen this .pdf doc here before, though I have heard the Terra mentioned. For me, it illuminates the agenda of a few recent posters here. Whom are hopefully somewhere that they can cause little harm. Has anyone checked the dungeon lately?
This link came from an news article about the "future of money summit". http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=SVBIZINK2.story&STORY=/www/story/10-29-2003/0002046608&EDATE=WED+Oct+29+2003,+06:31+AM It looks like a word for word copy of a press release to me.
Snip:
THE TERRA TRADE REFERENCE CURRENCY (TRC) MECHANISM....
.....The cost for holding onto the TRC currency is estimated at 3.5%-4% per annum....
....The TRC is backed by a standardized basket of the most important commodities and services
in the global market (e.g., oil, wheat, copper, etc; as well as some standardizable services such as
Carbon Emission rights). It would, therefore, be conceptually similar to a fully backed gold
standard, but in the case of the TRC, the backing would consist not of one single commodity but
of a dozen of the main international commodities, including gold....

Less Developed Countries (LDC�'s).....
LDCs that produce commodities (i.e., raw materials such as oil, copper or cocoa that
would be components in the basket of the TRC) would be in a similar position as any of
the corporate participants in the Terra TRC mechanism. Furthermore, those countries that
produce such commodities would find themselves in a position identical to gold
producers during the gold standard days: what they extracted (gold), was directly a
globally convertible currency.
.......................................
Toolie: Making gold from thin air (carbon emission rights)? Gandolf, you have some serous competition!
One "commodity" that seems to be missing for the currency basket is a collection of sage, objective individuals to "manage" value, as perishable commodities fluctuate in abundance. I guess we'll need a central banker or two that are above reproach. Here, IMO, is the fault in such a system. It substitutes active management for a self regulating gold standard. More of the same.

Congratulations Remarx,Wky Woodsman and Alberta Rose.

Townie: Top notch job on the banners!

Gandalf the White

(10/31/2003; 20:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 111172)

THANKS Sir Townie !

Yes, the fingers and mind are not totally in sync today !
AND, I proof-read that too !
TGIF !!
<;-)

Black Blade

(10/31/2003; 22:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 111173)

Number of Hungry Families in U.S. Rising

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=542&e=3&u=/ap/20031031/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/hungry_families
Snippit:

WASHINGTON - About 12 million American families last year worried that they couldn't afford to buy food, and 32 percent of them actually experienced someone going hungry at one time or another, the Agriculture Department said Friday. It was the third year in a row that the department has seen an increase in the number of households experiencing hunger and those worried about having enough money to pay for food. Also, more and more families are unsure if they can afford to eat or don't have enough food in their cupboards. Last year, 11 percent of 108 million families were in that situation. That's up 5 percent from 2001 and 8 percent from 2000.

Margaret Andrews, a department economist and an author of the annual survey, said the prevalence of hunger and food insecurity is clearly tied to the poverty rate because they fluctuate together. The survey "was a confirmation that the series of data over the years are behaving as you might expect, in a similar manner that poverty is," she said, noting the latest estimates by the Census Bureau show more people are poor. Some 34.6 million Americans were living in poverty last year � 1.7 million more than in 2001, according to the Census Bureau.

Black Blade: Thank goodness we have an "economic recovery" to solve this problem. As I have been saying, get out of debt and stay out of debt, Stash enough emergency cash for several months� expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and necessary basic goods (as those in the article should have done and should be doing). When I was out of country I would comment to those I was with that I could spot the Americans in the crowd at tourist locations abroad. They would ask I could do that. I said it's quite simple � in a crowd of tourists just look for groups of fat people. Sure enough it would seem that most turned out to be American tourists. I read that the "casket industry" has begun to build super-sized caskets for obese individuals weighing up to 700 lbs. With 30.5 million obese Americans and the shortened life spans it looks to be a growth industry (no pun intended). Meanwhile the poverty rate grows in the US and more are unable to feed themselves and their families because of lack of planning and simply being irresponsible. All I can say is get prepared for unforeseen events including financial distress (some hard asset protection such as precious metals for financial insurance) along with some easy to prepare for situations such as a food storage program. Anything can happen � natural disasters, unemployment, family illness and death, etc.

BTW, I am back for the next day or two before heading out once again. Congratulations to the contest winners.

Black Blade

(10/31/2003; 22:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 111174)

Consumer spending sees biggest drop in year

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2194093
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- Consumers kept a tighter grip on their wallets in September, trimming spending by 0.3 percent after a summertime shopping spree that propelled a third quarter of strong economic growth. The largest over-the-month decrease in spending in a year, reported today by the Commerce Department, came after consumer spending shot up by 1 percent in July and then another 1.1 percent in August. Consumers spent more lavishly earlier as they began to see the cash from President Bush's third round of tax cuts. Economists had said in advance of today's report that the brisk pace of spending -- which helped spur a 7.2 percent annual rate of growth in the third quarter -- just couldn't be sustained. They had predicted that shoppers would rein in their finances in September, and they did just that.

The missing piece, however, for a sustained rebound is steady improvement in the nation's battered labor market, which has seen millions of job evaporate over the last three years, economists say. The risk: a prolonged sluggishness, or worse, a deterioration on the jobs front could crimp consumer spending, something that would slow the rebound. "The bottom line: job creation determines income and income drives spending," said Richard Yamarone, economist with Argus Research Corp. "There are a number of signs of improving labor market conditions, however, the job creation picture remains skittish."

Black Blade: One has to wonder if the 7.2% GDP growth is more a combination of the new methodology used in calculation and increased defense spending along with more "data massage" and probably a "one off" event without more military spending. I would be more interested to see how much lower the GDP data is revised in the next report (similar to how the weekly and monthly unemployment and first claims data is typically revised upward).

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