http://www.econ.kuleuven.ac.be/ew/academic/intecon/Degrauwe/PaulDeGrauwe.htmSNIPS from Professor Paul De Grauwe's column "Trichet will bring best practice to the ECB " published in the Financial Times on Thursday, June 19, 2003:
... strong individuals can sometimes make a difference
...
It is unclear whether Mr Trichet will want to change this part of the ECB's strategy [the raising of the inflation target to, say, 2.5 per cent or 3 per cent]. After all, he made his reputation forcing the rate of inflation in France down to the German level amid howls of protest from French politicians, economists and intellectuals. He stood firm and earned a reputation as a hard-nosed inflation fighter - quite a feat in France. Will he want to endanger this reputation by raising the inflation target? Or will he be the "Nixon who goes to China"? I expect that Mr Trichet will want to preserve his hard-fought reputation. But I may be wrong. Sometimes the quality of great leaders is to do the unexpected.

==
Nixon, the one who left gold
China, the one who's welcoming gold?
What's the relationship between Nixon and China?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/thursday.htm
and so is Tim Wood
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Neither of them looks at the money supply figures which have been published on Thursday.

Granted, Tim writes
SNIP
It's Still Brewing
The bearish pattern that I have been monitoring is currently still on track. The many technical indicators follow as well as my cycles works also confirms that something big is in deed brewing. For these reasons I believe that we are now relatively close to seeing a wonderful opportunity on the short side of this market materialize. As investors we must remain focused and patient. My strategy is to take positions in BLABLABLA

CONTRAST
this to the surprise of Roland Leuschel's short column on what transpired on Thursday (PLEASE CORRECT MY TRANSLATION) under the title "A severe crash is awaiting us immediately" http://nachrichten.boerse.de/anzeige.php3?id=72be4f70
SNIPS:
Yesterday (Thursday), the super numbers for the third quarter have been published in America and the euphoria of the investors seems to have no limit. The numbers have reached a summit which has never been reached in the past (January 2000, September 2000 and August 1987). This fact only is a strong alarm sign.

For my short "dispositions"(??? sorry, I can't translate this)), I use the money supply figures in the US of A and these look even worse. At the end of last week M1 and M3 numbers have been published and those are catastrophical. The four week average of the US money supply M3 (minus $21 billion Dollar) is historically the worst number. I base my investment decisions on the MZM Money Supply numbers, whereby the four week average numbers have been very helpful in the past. When the number was above 10, this was an absolute buy signal for the stock-markets, and vice-versa when the number was under 5, stocks had to be sold. The last number, which I think has never been lower, is: 1.97 ! ... In other words, the Surprise-Party is finished. ..... I have more data to my disposal but I cannot refer to all of them here. But it is now clear what you have to do: look again at the marvellous data of yesterday, they won't come back soon. This was the weakest quarter since the first quarter of 1984. ....
==
Eine kr�ftige Kurskorrektur steht unmittelbar bevor!

Gestern wurden die Superzahlen �ber das dritte Quartal in Amerika ver�ffentlicht, und die Euphorie der Anleger scheint keine Grenzen zu kennen. Die Sentiments-Indikatoren in Amerika sind auf einem Stand angekommen, der alle H�hepunkte der Vergangenheit (Januar 2000, September 2000 und August 1987) �bertrifft. Allein diese Tatsache ist ein starkes Alarmzeichen.

F�r meine kurzfristigen Dispositionen benutze ich vor allen Dingen die Geldmengenzahlen der USA, und da sieht es noch viel schlimmer aus. Ende letzter Woche wurden M1 und M3 Zahlen ver�ffentlicht, und die sind echt katastrophal r�ckl�ufig. Beim 4-Wochendurchschnitt der US-Geldmenge M3 (- 21 Milliarden Dollar) entstand sogar der historisch schlechteste Wert. Meine Anlageentscheidung basiere ich allerdings auf die MZM Money Supply Zahlen, wobei die 4-Wochendurchschnitte in der Vergangenheit besonders hilfreich waren. Wenn die Kennzahl �ber 10 lag, war ein absoluter Kauf an den Aktienb�rsen geboten, und umgekehrt bei einer Kennzahl unter 5 mussten Aktien verkauft werden. Die letzte Kennziffer, die mir zur Verf�gung steht, ist historisch noch nicht dagewesen : 1,97 ! ... Mit anderen Worten die Surprise-Party geht zu Ende. ..... Es liegen mir noch viele andere Zahlen vor, auf die ich an dieser Stelle nicht eingehen kann. Aber das Fazit scheint klar : Schauen Sie sich die wunderbaren Zahlen von gestern an, sie werden so schnell nicht wiederkommen. Es waren die h�chsten Quartalszuw�chse seit dem ersten Quartal 1984. ....

http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp031028.htm---the following quote is most amusing---
"Paraphrasing a statement, which former US Treasury Secretary Connolly made with respect to the US currency, one could summarise this view as "It may be our deficit, but it is your problem." "

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aWCba5hfCSik&refer=ukOct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England will raise its benchmark rate next week for the first time in more than 3 1/2 years as economic growth picks up, the National Institute of Economic & Social Research predicted.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10Despite a fairly solid rebound in $Cash, both Gold and Bonds failed to react as expected. The contracting M's could throw a spanner in the works next week and it will be interesting to note how the PaperGold crowd reacts.

Congratulations contest winners and thanks again Gandy, MK etal for your ceaseless generosity.

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=2&ts=1067609220000Snip:

NEW YORK, Oct. 31 (MktNews) - U.S. car dealers are reporting a sharp dropoff in car sales for October, dragged down by extraordinarily weak demand in California, by far the nation's most important market.
.....................
Two factors specific to Southern California depressed sales: a tripling of the state's auto license fee, which on Oct. 1 restored the unpopular tax to its former level, and the California wildfires that are proving to be a huge distraction to consumers, say dealers throughout the state.

Last week, GM offered a rebate to consumers intended to counteract the new license tax, but apparently to little avail so far.
..................
***************
Misetich

California's economy is moribund - Cali represents one of the top 10 economies worlwide and its going nowhere.

Housing bubble, refinancing has kept consumer spending up. Many hope that the Terminator will turn things around and many more who have tied their retirement savings to the SM are hoping for a turnaround of the US economy

Hope and prayer are usually terms associated with third world economies

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=63&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

On the international front, Japanese Ministry of Finance data shows they bought about $25.0 billion dollars in the month of October. That follows purchases of about $59.0 billion from July to the end of September but there was no intervention during August.

This clearly argues against claims that intervention activity has been scaled back since the G7 meeting!

All economists now expect the Bank of England to hike the repo rate by 25 bps to 3.75% following the Nov. 5-6 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, a survey by Market News International showed Friday.
**************
Misetich

Interestingly during the same period the Yen appreciated in value against the US from the line in the sand at 1.15 to lower than 1.10

How long can Japan and other Asian countries can keep adding to their massive US $ reserves? and simulteneously see their portfolio value shrink

What a gamble on their part? Usually bubbles of this nature burst sooner than later. Time is ticking....tick..tick..

Would hate to be a holder of US $ investments

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=9&aid=13331Snip:

The EU and China have strengthened their increasingly close relationship with the signing of two important agreements in Beijing on October 30.
.....................
Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, told a joint news conference after the summit: "We hope the European Union will become our biggest partner in economic and trade relations".
.....................
In the hope of boosting the number of wealthy Chinese tourists visiting Europe, the EU has decided to relax its visa restrictions for the country.
*****************
Misetich

EU is exploiting the US "hardliners" oppressive agenda of Neo-Cons and fermenting relationships with countries such as China, Iran, Russia

It could very well be EU and US could be playing good/bad cop routine and 'suckering' outsiders - though higly unlikely

The mellow approach being implemented by EU has thus far worked effectively and the Euro market share as a world reserve currency has grown by at least 10% and is poised for larger gains

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.msnbc.com/news/987405.asp"The oldest person in the world, Kamato Hongo, died on Friday aged 116, ...

"Hongo's death comes a month after the world's oldest man, Yukichi Chuganji, passed away at his home on the same Japanese island aged 114.

"Japan is one of the world's most rapidly aging societies, with one in five citizens now aged 65 or over, the highest percentage among industrialized nations. Scientists have attributed Japanese longevity to factors including diet and exercise."

Good country to be over 65 in, eh? Japan, Asia, respect for elders, etc. Hope they still have that tradition in full effect for the rest of them. Have we ever had it -- not like them for sure -- but we better hope there's some respect for elders comes along to cover our rears when SS implodes. (I remember hearing about those elders freezing in their apartments in remote Russia when their social insurance funds disappeared. If they didn't have family nearby, who cared for them...)

"Demographics is destiny" -- where have I heard that lately. Demographics becomes tragedy? It's occurred to me, on a particularly lazy day, to head over to Walmart and see the elderly greeters, and imagine that those jobs aren't even there when we get to that age. (Oooo, what a gloomy Gus I is this morning -- gotta go...)

http://www.joc.com/data/pricesindexes.shtmlGDP growth 7.2% ????

Sorry if I keep harping on this and thanks for that G.Ure GDPeee posting link. Very enlightening on the statistical fraud presented to us in this statistic.

YOY nominal GDP increased $532.2 billion, or 5.1%, to $11.04 Trillion, subtracting from
that growth rate take the CPI growth YOY of 2.4% (most likely understated by 1-2%) you only have
a growth of 1-2%, maybe nothing. You can't use the FED deflator on GDP, its a joke.

The FED for its part, warned about deflation. While industrial commodity prices are indeed soaring (see link) the world seems awash in cheap labor. Last month, the BLS reported that average weekly wages fell for the first time in 14 months BEFORE inflation.

Money supply numbers are tracking lower, as others have noted, specifically the amount of money stored in retail bank accounts (money funds, cd's). This indicates deflationary forces are at work.

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=27650
Druid: IVH, last week there was a really interesting discussion concerning interest rates and I was going to comment but decided not too because I realized that in the area of credit creation, and thus the determining of interest rates along the yield curve, "modern finance" has pleomorphed and hijacked a part of classical economic thinking regards the subject. Trying too figure out the ratio of each or where one begins and the other ends is by no means an easy task. At least not for yours truly.

When I refer to classical economic thinking in this instance, I mean as it pertains to the role of the FED and those components that make up the "money supply." As I was referring back to my notes of some 13 years ago and began constructing some supply demand graphs to represent various yield curves of different maturities, I realized that when listing the components of the supply curve representing the suppliers of credit, I got stuck and had to change a lot of assumptions. Well, to say the least, this is still a major work in progress because in the past all I had to do was look at the banking & Fed data and I could get a pretty good snapshot of what was going on and where the economy and markets were headed.

Years ago the physical economy was the healthy body and thus the dominant causation of created value by means of ingenious innovation and steady production. There was a virus around(finance) but the body(economy) held it at bay and when confronted with a cold could recover without missing a beat. However, today, the virus has ramped and morphed(all under the guise of "efficiency") into something deadly and overtaken the body and this is where we're at. Nolan over at the Bear is chronicling this evolution in real time and sometimes can't find the words to describe this insanity. I'm still trying to wrap my brain around this situation so I can come up with my own visual to understand what is transpiring right before my eyes.

I apologize for getting off track but my main premise is that the "money supply" may not be the indicator of old and is becoming more and more obscure.

********************************

Snippet:

It has been fascinating to witness truly historic financial evolution over the past decade. I have often attempted to explain how the Fed, GSEs and Wall Street have evolved to the point of having mastered the art of liquefying the market-based U.S. Credit system � Liquidity on Demand in Grand Excess. The nexus of this unparalleled power lies in the capacity for virtually unlimited GSE liability creation � insatiable demand for (implicitly guaranteed) GSE debt that can be issued in gross excess with no impact on perceived creditworthiness or investor demand (the "moneyness" of GSE liabilities); the Fed's capacity/audacity to peg short-term interest rates significantly below market rates; the explosion of aggressive leveraged speculation; and, of course, the dollar's role as international reserve currency. These provided a confluence of powerful forces unlike anything experienced in monetary or financial history.

This monetary/liquidity mechanism gained deserved credibility from rectifying the tumultuous market episodes of 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2002 experiences. Over the past several months, this "mastery" has been absolutely flaunted. Credit, liquidity and speculative excesses were taken to a whole new level. Interest rates began to shoot higher in July. Quickly, the highly leveraged and speculation-rife bond and interest-rate derivative markets faltered in near dislocation. But from July through September, Fannie and Freddie expanded their mortgage portfolios by the then unprecedented $160 billion (compared to the 2nd quarter's $13.3 billion increase). Problem "resolved."

It is worth briefly rehashing the dynamics of GSE "liquefication." Today, the system is acutely vulnerable to rising interest rates. For one, we face unprecedented leveraged speculation that would be forced into problematic liquidation in the event of a significant and sustained rise in interest rates. Second, there is great systemic risk associated with asset Bubble dynamics (especially throughout mortgage finance) and exceptionally weak debt structures after years of poor and excessive lending (Minsky's "Ponzi Finance"). Third, there is this incredible interest-rate derivatives monster that expands with each new day of Credit and speculative excess. The GSEs, speculators, and other financial operators have purchased derivative protection against rising rates. Sellers of unfathomable quantities of "insurance" must "dynamically hedge" their exposure in the event of rising rates -- they are forced to sell/short Treasuries, agencies and other debt instruments into a declining market to establish positions that would generate the required cash-flow to pay Fannie, Freddie and all the rest in the event of a sustained jump in rates.

It is simply difficult to comprehend how our Credit system could avoid dislocation (a liquidity crisis) in the event of sharply higher rates. Everyone knows as much. Yet there is apparently no cause for concern. The Fed, GSEs and Wall Street have mastered the art of manipulating market rates and liquidity. With the first serious episode of spiking rates/speculator liquidation/derivative-related selling, the GSEs immediately commence the ballooning of their balance sheets (buying mortgages and other debt instruments). This accomplishes several crucial things; I'll touch quite briefly on a few. First, it provides the leveraged players a "Buyer of First and Last Resort," thus emboldening the community and keeping them in the game (no liquidation allowed!). Second, by aggressively acquiring mortgage-backed securities, GSE operations mitigate the amount of (duration) hedging that would otherwise be required by holders of these securities in a rising rate environment. And, most importantly, by capping the interest-rate rise, GSE liquidity operations greatly allay the amount of systemic derivative selling that would be necessary if rates were to jump sharply. Or, stated differently, the JPMorgans and Citigroups of the world, with their huge and growing interest-rate derivative positions, can sleep soundly at night with the confidence that the Fed and GSEs enjoy the capacity to manipulate rates lower at their discretion. With this � a guarantee of continuous and liquid markets, along with "pegged" low rates � a flourishing interest rate derivative market becomes viable. The key Credit Bubble perpetrators - the expansive Fannie, Freddie and speculator community - are advanced the cheap insurance necessary to ensure continued rapid growth. It's like buying flood insurance in an environment where the insurance community can carefully control the amount of rainfall.

A truly amazing system has evolved over time. And, let there be no doubt, "The Community" has ably and repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to regulate the amount of "rainfall"/interest rates/liquidity. The Fed can peg short-term rates at 1% and orchestrate a steep yield curve; the GSEs can sit back with the capacity to create enormous liquidity on demand; the leverage speculators can bet with reckless abandon; the financial sector can expand without limitation; inexhaustible liquidity can fuel real estate and securities inflation and resulting economic expansion; and the interest-rate derivative players can write unbounded policies with confidence that rates will simply not be allowed to shoot higher. All the while, the Credit system can expand aggressively with little concern for the endless supply of new dollar financial claims created. A Trillion here and a Trillion there, and there's no downside. Speculative demand for securities will meet the ballooning supply, with little if any impact on the "controlled" interest rate markets. Cheap and plentiful Liquidity on Demand Forever!! A truly historic "achievement."

This manipulation has an enviable track record, working so splendidly so many times. But there is a flaw and this failing is and will remain the focal point of my analysis. And this serious flaw goes right to the heart of A True Paradigm Shift. Yes, U.S. interest rates are today controllable and this reality does wonders for the entire fragile financial system and hopelessly distorted U.S. economy. And domestic demand for the endless supply of new Credit � inflated dollar financial claims - can be orchestrated by an expanding U.S. financial sector. But the flaw? Its Wildness Lies in Wait out there in the increasingly distrustful and less compliant global financial arena. The Almighty Fed, the Commanding GSEs and A Powerful Wall Street are today simply not well endowed when it comes to the capacity to manipulate global demand for Bubble Dollar Balances.

The bottom line is that, despite its repeated "successes," this New Age Financial Control Mechanism ("The Great Experiment") has not really been tested. Contemporary U.S. interest-rate/liquidity manipulation basically evolved over the King Dollar period 1995 through early 2002. The confluence of inflating U.S. asset prices, an outperforming economy, international high regard for the U.S. generally, and the impaired global financial system, worked to effortlessly recycle the rising flood of U.S. dollar balances right back to U.S. markets. There was absolutely no limit � no domestic or global constraints � on the amount of Credit creation (dollar claims inflation) generated during these U.S. liquefications. The liquidity jubilantly found its way right back to U.S. assets: the late nineties direct investment boom; the technology and U.S. stock market mania; and the Treasury/agency/"structured finance" securities Bubble. The ease of "recycling" dollar balances � of which everyone has grown so accustomed - was a most seductive aberration.

There are a few dynamics worth pondering. First, with the demise of King Dollar comes significantly reduced private demand for U.S. real and financial assets. Nowadays, relative performance of Non-dollar assets gains by the week, exacerbating Non-dollar financial flows. Second, Credit Bubble dynamics dictate (and recent GSE balance sheet ballooning provides evidence) that Credit excess (dollar financial claims inflation) must expand at an accelerating pace to support both levitated U.S. asset prices (real and financial) and an increasingly distorted Bubble economy. Thus, the dynamic of ebbing global demand and the accelerating flow of dollar claims pose a not inconspicuous dilemma. Importantly, however, global central banks have for the past year filled the void. This is not sustainable, and it is worth noting that dollar demand has been supported during this period by strong financial markets and a strengthening economy. Things can easily get much worse, and I would warn that there is a major problem with the markets complacency regarding the risk associated with dollar weakness.

***************************

A little more off topic from the money supply, Belgian, I'd like to read about what you think about Putin locking up one of the top oil Execs. Could it be that Putin is clearly drawing a demarcation line between the government and the private interests? If Putin is leaning toward the Euro and the Euro is supposed to represent a paradigm shift in the "thoughts" of a "free" gold, then is Putin considering the many over the few? TIA.

The Yukos (Sibneft) affair is only the top of a very complicated (multifaceted) iceberg. My two cents on it...
It is Germany who is counseling Putin in Russian affairs.
Russian resources for Euroland AND China under the growing euro-system umbrella.
Shroder recently stated that he wants Kroatia in EMU, asap.
Schroder wants Russia to bring its internal energy-distribution in line with Euroland's taxing model and raise energyprices.
But it remains difficult to amalgame Russia and China different cultures. China is maneuvering as to make the US lose face, but Russia and Germany still have some opportunistic Atlantic (dollar) symphaties. The tree other oil/gas Russian oligarchs already left Russia, 2 for the UK and 1 for Israel. The dollar was trying (still is) to get Russian resources under its wings !!! And it is here that the conflicting interests make things very difficult. Because of the dollar-euro factions, facing each other, over enormous reserves of resources.
This provokes internal power-struggles (camp-chosing US-EU) in Russia itself.

Russia is divided on the difficult bargaining-balancing between its Iraqi interests and the managenment of its own resources.

In much simplier terms...The US, Euroland, Russia, Middle East and China do evolve in geopolitical terms, around oil/gas resources and euro or dollar-system(standard).
These struggles meet a lot of conflicting interests at many levels (personal, national, political, financial, monetary, military...etc. )

Keep on watching and bet on the final outcome with the tangible of your choice.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
If your computer has "talking" capability there is a wonderful round table discussion today on Puplava's Financial News Network. Participants are R. Prector, Tim Woods, Peter Eliades, and Kennedy Gammage.

Some Highlights: All of the guests see a soon to be rapid correction in the stock markets now that the 7.2% fictional growth in GDP is in the books. The only place to go is down after that. The one-off stimulus of tax rebates (spent), Refi. cash backs declining, and continueing unemployment problems signalling stagnating consumer demand-- all pointing to a top.

Complacency and euphorish bull market outlooks usually signal a "suprise" to the downside.

Outlook for Gold was mixed. Prechter remains uncommittal. He says he's not Bull nor Bear, but waiting to see how a severe downturn in market liquidity will effect Gold(Physical)--If it reacts along with other commodities to the downside, then he would continue his neutral to negative stance. A seperation from other commodities to the positive Bull in Gold and he probably, belatedly jumps aboard. Tim Woods also was non-committal at this point on Gold.

Peter Eliades and K. Gammage were much more up beat right now about the Gold metal market (physical). Peter saying the Gold Bull is moving slowly right now, but as it was a long drawn out Bear, he also feels the Bull will be slow in developing.

All of these commentators feel that the U.S. faces a long term drawn out depression style down turn, that will be very nasty to some degree.

They pointed out the dishonesty in the stock market numbers-earnings, etc. The real-estate market with the huge loan packages now securitized in mutual fund, insurance, and retirement portfolios, were pointed to as booby traps in unsuspecting "safe" portfolios. And the derivatives that overhang all the markets now. All these men felt a real estate market downturn could well be what brings down everything, ultimately.

ALL-- of these individuels advocate holding Physical Gold to some degree in a non-tradable perspective. Again, ALL of them.

Mining Stocks-- were talked about, and they say fine to play with, but be prepared to trade them for the metal itself. This leads me to wonder, are we now approaching a point where we who own some mining stock should be selling as this bear market rally in stocks petersout? We have seem the Gold stock mutual funds and indexes continue to rise with the general stock market even as Gold has oscilated in value between $370 and $390 here the past 3 weeks. Are the Gold Stocks going to top out and crash, if the general stock market slides? Opinions?

Gdome

I have some nice profits in my miners stocks.I have been seriously thinking about selling and use profits for physical.Some things that have kept me from it are I do not want to be taxed on short term gains,I can not accept that quality mining stocks will be treated like trash tech stocks in a downturn,and someone whos opinion I respect insists that after physical position is established miners offer huge potential in profits.I am considering my options.21

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm
Druid: Belgian thanks for the reply. Lewis over at "Chaos-onomics" is planning on addressing this issue a little deeper. He started too and as you read what I posted, something came up. I'm looking forward to what he has to say as I agree with you that this is only the "tip" of the iceberg. Richard Perle's quote below does not surprise me the least bit. It's hell just trying to keep up with and figure out what our political, economic and financial architects are up too, much less, the rest of the worlds. It appears that everywhere the dollar faction tries to gain some ground, the ground keeps shifting and moving. King dollar, a real hot potato these days.

Snippet:

Oct 31: Russia should be excluded from the G-8. No [other] G-8 country is allowed to treat its leading businessmen the way Russia treated Khodorkovsky. I believe Russia is moving fast in the wrong direction. - Richard Perle ex-Chairman, Pentagon Defense Policy Board

Green arrows again this morning, the totem has spoken. While we wait to hear just what kind of Kool-Aid is being dispensed down in the lower reaches of Manhattan to achieve such a remarkable distortion of reason, I thought to take a look at events over in Russia. As most readers are aware, over the weekend Russian authorities arrested the CEO of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Yesterday the same authorities froze some 44% of Yukos shares, according to the Moscow Times. This move, however, is not the first of its kind in recent history. A pattern is beginning to emerge even to those of us viewing events dimly through the medium of the internet. The oligarchs are one by one being tossed out of Russia, or thrown in jail. Let's speculate a bit about possible causes and effects of this shift in Russian policy.

....Oops, the wife has car trouble so it looks like I'll have to get back to this later today or tomorrow.

To the ordinary Russian people, it is all very clear, for quite some time already : Russia is looted and being plundered by internationalists !
Those Russian (?) resource-oligarchs are only strow-men and arrived at their billionaire status with the backing of internationalists who invented, organized and are profitting from the so called, liberalization for public consumption (East German reunification concepts-public's participation coupons in privatization).
This is very embarassing for Germany, since they co-operated with the US strategos (internationalists) on the Balkan pipeline corridors as to transport Russian resources to Euroland and China. (German troops in Afghanistan)

These (geopolitical) events do influence the establishment of the euro (euro-acceptance and use-Russia) outside Euroland and consequently the relationship between euro and dollar vis � vis the rest of the planet, outside US and EU. That's how this oligarch/Putin business relates, indirectly to Gold.

All media are now heavely involved (engaged) in extreme political perception building. It's getting worse by the day ! There are an increasing lot of very ugly things to hide these days. A struggle between the good and the bad...heavely related to the evolving dollar and euro-block formations, dancing around the utmost importance of the strategic resource reserves AND their defenses. None of the authoritive observators are allowed to make these links.

Impossible to speculate on the coming turns an twists. Will/can Putin survive and at what cost (compromise) ?
Can the dollar continue to impose its supremacy ad infinitum ? Is the UK organizing another wave of euro-bashing ? etcetera,...and so on,...und so weiter,...enzovoort,....

THIS is an open and scathing expose LETTER to Donald Rumsfeld about the interesting correaltions between todays war on Terrorism and the the war in VIETnam and DONALDS culpability in both venues......It's very revealing in its' assertions and inuendo as to RUSSIAS continued involvement in the support and training of our enemies...addressing the failure of our intelligence community to be awake and proactive in this area....etc etc etc...The motives and causes that are exhibited to us rarely have anything to do with whose doing what and what the real agenda is in the ongoing games being played behind the scenes.....the actions last week against YUKOS on the heels of Putin's EURO remarks are very telling......

Perhaps the people at YUKOS were getting ready to soak that company and pull another ENRON.......hmmmmmm......GUT THE COMPANY>>> I think the 87Billion package to rebuild IRAQ is another Enron move on a Public SECTOR BASIS>.....All bushes buddies and Carlisle GROUP get to Pass GO and collect .......DON"T worrry , it's only paper.....peach colored paper now.......I would say that "In the FOOTSTEPS OF GIANTS" (postings of ANOTHER).....right now is worth "ANOTHER" read and it may go very providential that this FORUM and the Information made known here fell on us in the timely manner in which it did........

TO MICHAEL and your STAFF and CONTRIBUTORS........
THANK YOU EVER SO MUCH ........for providing FINANCIAL/ECONOMIC LIGHT in the midst of a FINANCIALLY PERVERTED AND DARK FINANCIAL WORLD

Intuitions of the GAB, regarding Putin's move to jail Jodorkowski and freeze 44% of shares in Yukos oil empire:

The GAB read the article on this event in the Financial Times. The FT was frantic! Putin's move is outrageous, money is going to leave Russia in droves, this is a death blow to Russia's development, all confidence will be shattered if Putin does not repent soon! Etc., etc. (The words above, are GAB's paraphrase of the article's words)

Well, well. If the FT is so upset, this means that Putin's actions are not favorable to the US/British block, alias the Dollar. If they are not favorable to the US/British block, the GAB infers that they are favorable to the EU.

The GAB can imagine that Putin checked this out with Schoeder of Germany, some time ago.

This move might be a preliminary to Euro pricing of oil by Russia. Jodorkowski was your internationalist mogul, The GAB very much doubts he is Russian at all, as Belgian insinuates. This move is a consolidation of oil control by Russia, taking it back from the "internationalists", who were planning to continue selling for Dollars, probably.

Just intuitions. The frantic denunciations of the FT are a giveaway as to who is getting hurt by Putin.

The GAB

Allow me to emphasize your insights with the following : In less than a week, it has become very (conveniently) trendy to compare the Iraq situation with Vietnam. Total nonsense of course and therefore another piece of evidence on the real fundamentals in the hidden agendas. Iraq is not another Vietnam but a second Israel/Palestine model that has been outlined (manufactured). Argumentation, on this, would bring us too far away from the Gold matters in s�.

Also note that within Russia, there are 25 million moslims !
More in dept analyses of geopolitico stratego, can be found in the writings of the German observator, P. Sholl-Latour, an *independant* expert/observator on these matters.

Remember those days of the "cold war" intriges. Those same power-wars are to be continued with the variant tool of WOT. The same intrigants (and their expertise) are hired for the job. Only one Big difference...the old alliances risk to break up and change camp. That counts in particular for Euroland. To euro or not to euro...FREEGOLD or dollar-gold !? Further concertation on the dollar-standard or not !?

The euro must give evidence of being able to "STABILIZE" the International Monetary System under deteriorating circumstances !!! That's the name of the game that's being played, imvho of course. Oil-matters have increasingly become, currency-matters.

Note, that the newly elected (?) UK Tory leader should openly confirm his (Thatcherite)euro-scepticism as most important quality. A conditio sine qua non ! Evidence of the theory, no ?

If you back up a little and look at the big picture we are in a long term bull market for physical gold, and "Things" in general for that matter. As such it is natural that the unhedged miners of AU and AG will appreciate as it becomes clear that much of the supply demand price increase will drop to the companies' bottom line. All this activity / profit is fine until the rise threatens the politicians at which point they will take action to reign in the profits. No one knows when this would happen, so those who wish to invest or speculate in gold or silver stocks would be well advised to continually take money off the table as these stocks appreciate.
If you decide to cash out, where are you going to put the fiat profits,certainly not in depreciating dollars? Thus logic speaks to laddering out of stocks into our host's gold and silver bullion as profits are achieved.
Ultimately we are all going to be better off with bullion, probably closely held; but an opportunity exists after your core holding in bullion is secure, to invest in producers and opportunistically take profits as you go along. In my opinion physical metal in hand should always be the main focus. Taxes,long or short term, should not be considered when wishing to take profits. Got Gold!

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/theend.htmlExponential Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate
28 October 2003

Originally posted at: Gold is Money


The light blue horizontal lines are just to point out the relationship between rates and MZM...

Rates rise and MZM contracts...Rates are lowered and MZM expands...

Debt backed by debt Fractional reserve banking, to be sustained from this point means that MZM growth must grow faster and faster exponentally like it has been since the early 60's...

Can Rates be dropped past zero faster and faster exponentally faster and faster?

The answer is NO...that is impossible...

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

So from now until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

Or the System will collapse...the end

Try all you want to deny it...the dawn of economic doomsday is upon us...

http://www.dieoff.com/page242.htmsnip> "The reality of the economist's political agenda is a curious mixture of politics and efficiency: "political efficiency". Economists are trained to believe that "money" has nothing to do with politics and is simply a medium of exchange. But even the casual observer can see that money is social power because it "empowers" people to buy and do the things they want -- including buying and doing other people:"

"....Or the System will collapse....."


Why?

Is your 'depressionTv' link okay? The 'syntax' appears incorrect?

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Master.htmI used the sharelynx site..It worked earlier.. Try sharelynx and then down to depression Tv.

Exponential Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate
28 October 2003

Originally posted at: Gold is Money


The light blue horizontal lines are just to point out the relationship between rates and MZM...

Rates rise and MZM contracts...Rates are lowered and MZM expands...

Debt backed by debt Fractional reserve banking, to be sustained from this point means that MZM growth must grow faster and faster exponentally like it has been since the early 60's...

Can Rates be dropped past zero faster and faster exponentally faster and faster?

The answer is NO...that is impossible...

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

So from now until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

Or the System will collapse...the end

Try all you want to deny it...the dawn of economic doomsday is upon us...

Rates across the spectrum must crash to sustain growth...Mortgage rates especially...and that will only buy a few more months to live in "THE GOOD OLD DAYS"

Peek at the Commercial and Industrial Loans Chart at all Commercial Banks. The chart indicates demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans have never recovered from the 2001 recession and continue to slide lower and lower. An ominous sign to say the least.........

Business Loans 1

Even more revealing is the 2000 to 2003 chart below:

Business Loans 2

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon."
--Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

Consumer loans look to be topping out....uh oh!

Consumer Loans

The argument for real estate investment is a good one, or should I say "has been" a good one since 1947......percentage of new real estate loans from prior year is turning down indicating a possible top is in the making for real estate loans and growth.

Real Estate Loans

Total Loans and Investments at all Commercial Banks moving sideways with prior annual percentage in strong decline.

Total Loans

Looks like deflation dead ahead to me! How say you?


*********

http://www.hindu.com/2003/11/02/stories/2003110200551301.htmGem & jewellery exports up



CHENNAI NOV. 1. Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, India's apex body for the gem and jewellery industry, announced a record half yearly growth of 13.61 per cent with total industry exports touching $47.85 billion (Rs. 22,247.04 crores) (provisional) compared to $ 42.12 billion (Rs. 20,471.07 crores) during the same period last year. This was in spite of exports dropping to a record low of 8 per cent due to SARS and the Iraq War in April, which affected the global economy drastically.

21Mabry-

I failed to sell a zillion options in my tech startup (in 2000-2001) so I could wait for long-term capital gains. However, by trying to save 15% in taxes, I lost 85% in value. WAY OOOOPPS!

My tax man reminded me of the following axiom: "Never make GAIN sale decisions based strictly on tax liability. The only sales decisions that should be for tax reasons are year-end LOSERS."

Timing is much better determined by P&L. Render unto Caesar and enjoy your bottom line growth!! You only pay taxes when you profit.

-Goldilox

http://www.jcpa.org/jl/vp414.htmThe front in this huge currency war is said (FOA) to go along the lines $/IMF/USAnglo/antiGold versus euro/BIS/ECB/FreeGold.Nationality of the participants is not helpful to understand on which side they stand as the front is going through the midst of our society (example K�hler/IMF).The powerelite (pandagold) is international anyway.

Observing this battle the last years I got the impression the Zionists are being assigned to the $-camp,the Khodorkovsky case Another example here.The currency war IS centering around black Gold and its preferred currency:Yukos deals in oil,and Putin made his preference to the euro side clear.Khodorkovsky is jewish (see link,capitel about The Oligarchs) and seems to be attributed to the $ internationalists (I heard Kissinger plead Putin to release him from jail).

For someone like me who just wants to find the truth on whats going on, its important to speak also about this.I remember pandagolds writings about "there is no new world order,the world is governed since centuries by the same elite".

He specifically claimed an increasing fear of many Israelites and Jews (panda is also jewish),people who,like most of us,just want to live their live: they fear of new attacks to them,as scapegoats for dirty dealings by as increasingly found out to be Zionists'simplyfied then as "the Jews".

Pandagold once wrote a post (not on a Goldforum I think,google btw finds lots of writings by him):"do you believe in justice? I do! Then something of the tune "Otherwise there would be no God and we could stop our civilisation".

In another post: "never underestimate the euro.Never!"

It left me rather confused to be honest.But I begin to see a picture: this organised "transition" $-->euro,from old and sick to new and prosper is also a transition from bad to good (at least in the propaganda).

So the old must be painted as the bad:overspending,full of excesses (now watch all those decadent TV programs!),hegemonial,war lusty,Goldhating,linked partially to a "Zionist Mafia",painting all arabs as extremists,buying gasguzzlers and wasting a valuable resource etc

I think this is to a large part a genuine process to shed an old layer of skin and guarantee the Judeo-Christian "Abendland" the surviving,probably leading to a new round of prosperity/high culture in Europe/Eurasia.It surely will be more intertwined with Russia/Arabia/China(?),I don't forget the long term agenda of the PE...

Ever wondered why FOA said "conservative people should buy Gold now"?Like "lets get rid of socialits,true conservatives to the power"?His "are you a hard money socialist?" is already legendary,it certainly converted ME to FreeGold...

The silent majority starts to speak up,the pattern is becoming visible at least here in Switzerland'some interesting political developments,right after the last criteria "Silver was above and held 5"(panda).

So,is the PE ready?It should be seen in other european countries also,but you still have to watch closely.The road is getting more bumpy now'surely,and many will lose in this transition.But then,they are probably losers and stuck in the old habits-a hard but healthy and necessary part in this process.

Hope I'm not too optimistic here,certainly I enjoy having a seat in the front row in this drama.Have a nice Sunday!

Interesting post, Sir. Allow me to reflect on it.
Two main streams of thoughts are developping, rapidly :

1/ Those who wish (strive) that ever more dollars are added to the global dollar-system as to continue the old (dis)order being operative.

2/ Those who wish to sail away from the aging dollar-system and timidly challenge it, for the time being.

And as always a (rather "the") third group of percepted uninvolved compromisers, floating between the 3 major currency blocks around the "one" $-system to be challenged. This are the Internationalist Intrigants (opportunists) who have the habit of always trying to eat from two plates. The more parties that are involved into a fight, the more there needs to be serviced, profitably.

Simplier : Encourage AND complicate, at the same time, the dollar > euro transition on wich you agree that it might (highly probable) be an improvement of the existing International Monetary ($)System. An intelligent strategy, regardless of how paradoxal this might seem !

Take the UK's stance on EMU as example for the mentioned paradoxes (= seemingly contradictions).
Another example is the justification of the Iraq occupation as to solve the Palestinian (and the whole ME) problem. The occupation will aggravate (purposely) the already existing problem, but is the perfect acceptable cover up of the real hidden agenda !
Much Less transparent are the CB goldreserve (UK in particular) reschufflings as to how paradoxal these operations are.

It is the function of the International Intrigants of making things (wars and peace) happen. The intrigants are in the business of creating as much food-plates as possible. I don't believe in an "elite" as such, but more in many different soldiers with specific tasks in the ant colony.

For example, Sharon (soldier) in Moscou (third time).

For wich currency (dollar-euro) is Arabian oil, the most important !!!-??? Or is Arabian oil as important for the euro as it is for the dollar !!!-??? And place Asian's growing oil-consumption-dependance as the joker into the play. The answer to this question is in the process of being formulated by the actions of the International Intrigants...those who *make* things happen.

The above must be understood as an illustration of what has/is been happening with Gold. Gold is purposely in the ban of many percepted paradoxes whilst the intrigants are almost sure of the final outcome (not the timing) for Gold !!! Free markets are only as free as the intrigants want them to be free ! POG is obscenely low, because those in the know of its future, want as much as possible of it ( Gold). An easely understandable paradox, out of many more difficult ones. Isn't it so evident that when one wishes to dispose something off...an overvalued price is (will be)*manufactured*.

Look at the unbridled debt-creation. Try to find a logical explanation why the dollar faction (FED) keeps on insisting that the ECB (euro) should lower its interest rates as low as the dollar ones !!! Remember the story about the two euro and dollar men, lost in the desert and facing the hungry debt-lion...euro has simply to outrun the dollar by 1/10 of a nanometer...
Who is organizing, encouraging this race ? Geopolitical events are part of the obstacle building of this race between euro-dollar and the debt-lion.

Gold is the geo-political metal !

Nice weekend to you.

I guess I will jump into this discussion.

I see the issue as being biological in nature.

The planet is up for grabs, the same as it has always
been, and these Russian manifestations are more of the
same, admittedly not obviously so. But I find that the
most clear explanation is the most fundamental one.

Imagine if someone said that what matters most about
pencils is that every pencil is a pencil, that it makes no
difference whether its cross section is hexagonal or
round, or whether it is painted yellow or red, or whether
it has a hardness of 6H or 4B. Just go ahead and use it,
they would say, and you will find it completely suited to
your task. An engineer would laugh at this. For he knows
that the degree of a pencil's softness or hardness is
crucial to a drawing. And so does an artist. Or a meter
reader. The other aspects also have reasons. Hand a 6H
pencil to a school child and even he will understand the
difference.

They say there is no such thing as differences between
people. But try telling that to an African American who
can't get a job in a white church, or to a Mexican
American who can't get a contractor's permit from the
city, or to a white man who stumbles into a African
American bar late on Saturday night, as I have done, or to
a single man in a room full of married women and their
husbands.

All pencils can write that gold has value. But when gold
is up for grabs, they take it who have power to do so.
It's the same for nations and the men who rule them. Nor
is every style of rule the same. Some hold office
publicly, whereas others hold power in effect, without
visible outward sign. And these are constantly in
conflict. Putin comes from the great Viking fighting
tradition, where a man is expected to acknowledge openly
what his weapons are and to let people see how he uses
them, because, if you can do that with desired effect, no
one can do better. His enemies are the silent ones,
however, who pose no obvious threat, and whose weapons are
also silent, stealthful, manipulative, very dangerous and
also effective. Russia is a fairly large part of planet
earth. Surely it must be seen as having value and be worth
fighting for, by all who seek to possess, by whatever
means, and no matter what their origin.

Gold is recognized almost universally as being what men
can acquire who are without the means for obtaining
nations, and it is they, and we among them, who drive this
market. Personally, I love the fray, partly because I am
more than equal to most, and to those to whom I am not
equal, by joining the fray I may become equal, and only by
that means. I side with those who are sufficiently
proficient with their tools to state their means, rather
than to have to hide them or use them in darkness. Gold
serves this purpose well for us, for these dynamics are at
work in the gold market as much as they are at work in the
world at large.

Where a man cannot hope to claim a nation, let him claim gold.

For gold is an outward -and an honest- sign of the extent of a man's own kingdom.

This is why dishonest men and dishonest nations abhore it.

And it is why I possess my share.

It is why you should yours also.

Last line should be: "It is why you should have your share also."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51540-2003Nov2.htmlSnip:

FALLUJAH, Iraq -- Insurgents shot down a U.S. Chinook helicopter over western Iraq on Sunday as it carried troops headed for R&R, killing 15 soldiers and wounding 21 in the deadliest single strike against American troops since the start of war.
....................
Others celebrated word of the helicopter downing, as well as a fresh attack on U.S. soldiers in Fallujah itself, where witnesses said an explosion struck one vehicle in a U.S. Army convoy at about 9 a.m. Sunday. They claimed four soldiers died, but U.S. military sources said they couldn't confirm the report.
................
In a separate incident, the U.S. command said a soldier from the 1st Armored Division was killed just after midnight when a makeshift bomb was exploded as his vehicle passed while responding to another incident.

In Abu Ghraib, on Baghdad's western edge, U.S. troops clashed with townspeople Sunday for the second time in three days, and witnesses reported casualties among both the Americans and Iraqis. There was no immediate official confirmation.
****************
Misetich

Ugly- just plain ugly. Lives of young people are being sacrificed for no reason - There must/could/should have better alternatives to oust Saddam

Iraq had no proven ties to terrorism nor the Anglos have proven they had WMD

Unfortunately one can guess what the reaction to today's bloodshed will be - the use of force

The quiet majority of Americans stands silently - blind faith - leads to support Neo-Cons agenda that has thus far has put the Superpower globas dominance in jeopardy as the Rest of the World led by EU is unwilling to accept the "New World Order" dictated by the Anglos

The consequences of this tacit approval by the general American public carries a price - a price of isolation - a price of self-destruction as the costs of funding the Neo-Cons agenda is unsustainable.

The US achilli is the $ and the Rest of the World knows it and are taking steps to chop its foundation - OIL

Oil priced in Euros - Will other commodities follow suit?

Deepest simpathys to the families of the fallen on all sides

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.terratrc.org/TerraSummary.pdfBelgian, Love your stuff and look forward to your posts.

Toolie posted an intersting link (above) in his 11171 post about a new currency. Perhaps it's old hat and a yawner to a lot of people, but it aparently it is being developed by some heavy hitters who seem to think it will work. A short version is at:

http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com/pr-terra.php

I get the gist of the idea of the currency, but I haven't a clue as to the flaws in the thing, if any (other than the one Toolie mentioned), its affect on euro/dollar, gold, whether it has a chance of happening, role of the fed, oil, etc. Almost seems like a certainty the way it was presented.

I wonder where it will go from here and how it will affect a lot of things if it happens.

Another link from Toolie's post is at:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=SVBIZINK2.story&STORY=/www/story/10-29-2003/0002046608&EDATE=WED+Oct+29+2003,+06:31+AM

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4785027∾tion=articleSnip:

LONDON (AFX) - Lord Jacob Rothschild, a member of the banking dynasty, has emerged as a central figure in the row over the future of Yukos, Russia's largest oil group, the Sunday Telegraph reported citing officials of the company.
It said Rothschild is one of a number of people to have been asked to take on voting rights over a bloc of Yukos shares following the arrest last weekend of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the billionaire head of the oil company.

According to the newspaper, Khodorkovsky has close ties with the British peer.
......................
It said that as well as Rothschild, this group is thought to include Leonid Nevzlin, a former associate of Khodorovsky at Yukos who left Russia in the summer.

The Sunday Telegraph said it has also learned that Khodorovsky is preparing legal action against the Russian prosecutors office for alleged defamation of character.

It added that Yukos, which is merging with rival Sibneft, has quashed reports that the company is to sell a stake in the business to Exxon Mobil Corp or ChevronTexaco Corp of the US.
******************
Misetich

Neat move by Yukos and the Oil Companies - Putin is no dummy.. here's an excerpt from an article published at http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/31/001.html

"When Russia began privatizing property it was done with the understanding that privately owned property would be more effective than state-owned property. We did not privatize so that the property could be sold to the United States and Khodorkovsky would get the money," said Sergei Markov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin.

The war of words is heating up between the US and Russia - here's ANOTHER snip from the Moscom Times

U.S. Hawk Wants Russia Out of G-8
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/10/31/011.html

Richar Perle, a hawkish policy adviser whose voice is heard in the Pentagon, has called for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight industrialized countries over the arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

"Russia should be excluded from the G-8. No [other] G-8 country is allowed to treat its leading businessmen the way Russia treated Khodorkovsky," Perle was quoted as saying in Russian translation in the Thursday issue of Kommersant. "I believe Russia is moving fast in the wrong direction."
.................
Perle also criticized the campaign in Chechnya and said he hoped that Russian oil companies would be denied contracts in postwar Iraq. He said the White House should be under no illusions that the Kremlin will help to end alleged development of nuclear weapons by Iran.
*****************
Misetich

The Neo-Cons agenda is being threatned and opposed on all fronts

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0310/5632f4f8527e99bd6872.jpegfrom New Zealand

Misetech, Thanks for info. The Rothschilds are still a force, and as always big money draws the flies.21

Unlike Ronald Reagan, this gentleman has no compunction about loss of innocent life. Truly, folly marches on.

Kyrie Eleison

Saddam,Bin Laden threat=Big money defense contracts,big money oil contracts,prepetuial warefare economy based on a real or imagined threat.It is not in the interest of the power elite to catch these men.People these are their Emmanuel Goldstiens you are seeing orwellian 1984 played out here.Was listening To Dave Morgan he seems to think silver has established 5 dollar floor which in his opinion was needed for it to move to higher ranges.Take heart people as long as places like this forum exists free thinkers and free thinking will continue.21

The 15 killed in the helicopter crash is getting serious (not that 15 killed is more or less serious than 1). Obviously a concerted effort is beginning to take hold in Iraq.

I can only imagine a mother or father getting news of their son or daughter dying in the seriously out-of-control mad-house over there.

Wonder how long it will be before a parent sues the US military for some sort of negligence? I mean, we're not at war anymore, right? Why are so many US soldiers dying? If we are not at war, why are we war-ing?

You are correct, this is ugly. And getting uglier by the day. Gotta end really, really bad.

Just read your post with great interest,thanks for your reflections.Yes,I keep on forgetting the opportunists....

Shortly after yours,I read Misetichs #111211 and got an example ,couldn't be more timely!

On a brighter note,the newsletter I subscribe to has for the first time recommended physical Gold!!!This is big news in my view as they have always been distinctly pro Gold and are on the record for being independent/anti banking system since their debut 30 years ago.

With a certain %-age they always played the mining shares (in the ranges CB's allowed...) but said bullion is not a theme yet.

Times are changing,and particularly interesting the reason for their recommendation of bullion: to save your wealth through bad times/devaluations!Exactly the store of wealth argument this Forum keeps on insisting!

So they don't give the manipulation game much more time obviously'see the flight from the $ accelerating and made comparisons with the 30'ies depression where those who could change their paper into Gold-made it through!

http://www.terratrc.org/TerraSummary.pdf
Thanks for posting the above link Sir Toolie. I have also been following the Denver FUTURE OF MONEY conference with interest as well and have even posted a bit on it and related matters. (Ref msg # 108208, 108216, 110598, 110605, and 110640.)

Although I share your doubts about the proposed Terra as a so called solution, in my opinion the above document does do a fair job of outlining the problems we are facing. Let me quote a few examples taken from it which I think are on target:

"The world today is facing some key economic and financial concerns, which, persist and are growing in scope despite any and all efforts aimed at ameliorating them. These concerns are:
. Massive job-losses;
. A mounting world recession, which now includes the world's three major world
economies;
. A lack of hard currencies and decreasing investments in Less Developed Countries
(LDCs);
. Conflict between short-term financial interests and long term sustainability."

..................................................................................................................................................

"Our monetary system is in a state of great instability and change. A current global casino of unprecedented proportions determines our money's value. Over $1.3 trillion are traded per day in foreign exchange markets, a figure that is almost 100 times more than the trading volume of all of the world's stock exchanges, combined. Nearly 96% of these transactions are purely speculative; they do not relate to the "real" economy, they do not reflect global exchanges of actual goods and services."

.....................................................................................................................................................

"on August 15, 1971, President Nixon unilaterally disconnected the dollar from gold, inaugurating an era without an international standard of value. Thus began floating exchanges, a monetary
arrangement in which currency values could fluctuate significantly at any point in time. Since this decision, the world's monetary system has not had any reliable international standard of value or a unit of measure (e. g., like the meter for distance, the degree Celsius for temperature or the Herz for frequencies)."

......................................................................................................................................................

"The current volatility of our money system has resulted in significantly increased commerce risks with regard to particular national currencies. Currency risks are typically larger than political risks (i. e., the possibility that a foreign government nationalizes the investment), or even market risks (i. e., the possibility that clients do not want the product)."

....................................................................................................................................................

"In a survey of U. S. Fortune 500 corporations, 85 % reported the need to use derivative hedging strategies to attempt to reduce foreign exchange risks."

...................................................................................................................................................

"Counter-trade. A technical term for international corporate barter, counter-trade is estimated to be in common use among no less than 200 countries around the world, with a volume that now ranges from $800 billion to $1. 2 trillion per year. This represents a staggering 10% to 15% of all international trade."

..................................................................................................................................................

"Another systemic issue is that the money-creation process tends to amplify the boom and bust fluctuations of the business cycle by the banking system."

..................................................................................................................................................

"In short, the collective actions of the banking system tend to exacerbate the business cycle in both boom and bust directions. Notwithstanding the attempts by Central Banks to reduce such
fluctuations by giving interest rate signals, the current process of creating money through bank-debt remains, in practice, a strong accentuation mechanism in the boom/ bust cycle."

..................................................................................................................................................

"An influential group of special interests has emerged who are opposed to reforming the global monetary system (i. e., oppose taking steps to make the system more stable), because the current instability is a source of substantial profits for this particular group. In addition, a whole industry has evolved around creating, selling and trading a full range of sophisticated "hedging" instruments that provide protection against currency fluctuations. In some cases, the trading of such instruments has become the most important profit centers, not just for major banks, but also, for the treasury departments of major corporations."

....................................................................................................................................................

"As John B. Connally, former U. S. Secretary of the Treasury under Nixon, remarked: "The dollar may be our currency, but it is your problem." This "benign neglect" approach continues still, making a cooperative governmental initiative by the United States unlikely. Therefore, any monetary initiatives that are to be taken must be initiated by the private sector."

.....................................................................................................................................................

DryWasher: In my opinion the above DOES make a strong case for change. In a following post (PART TWO) I will comment on the Terra as a proposed solution.

http://www.terratrc.org/TerraSummary.pdf
Following are a few excerpts from the linked paper which outline the basics of the Terra Trade Reference Currency Initiative.

"The Terra TRC is a demurrage-charged, privately issued, complementary, Trade Reference Currency, that is backed by an inflation-resistant, standardized basket of the dozen most important commodities and services in the global market. The TRCs will be issued by The TRC Alliance as inventory receipts, with an organizational structure that is open to all newcomers meeting certain pre-established criteria (similar to that of the Visa credit card system)."

...................................................................................................................................................

"The cost for holding onto the TRC currency is estimated at 3.5%-4% per annum. This demurrage charge insures the currency's use mainly as a trading device: it would not be
hoarded but always tend to remain in circulation."

...................................................................................................................................................

"The TRC is designed as a complementary currency that operates in parallel with national currencies, without competing with or trying to replace them. Every currency and financial instrument that currently exists would still be available for anybody who wants to use them after the TRC is operational."

..................................................................................................................................................

"The TRC is backed by a standardized basket of the most important commodities and services in the global market (e. g., oil, wheat, copper, etc; as well as some standardizable services such as Carbon Emission rights). It would, therefore, be conceptually similar to a fully backed gold standard, but in the case of the TRC, the backing would consist not of one single commodity but of a dozen of the main international commodities, including gold. Since it is fully backed by a physical inventory of commodities, the TRC would be a secure, robust and credible payment and provide a stable international mechanism for contractual and payment purposes worldwide."

......................................................................................................................................................

"The TRC automatically tends to counteract the boom and bust fluctuations of the business cycle, thereby improving the overall stability and predictability of the world's economic system. When the business cycle is weakening, corporations customarily have an excess of inventory and a need for credit. The excess inventories can now be sold to the TRC Alliance (who would place these inventories into storage). The TRC Alliance would pay for these inventories in TRC, thus providing corporations with a means of needed working capital (typically not readily available in this part of a business cycle). These corporations would immediately spend the TRC's, say, to pay their suppliers, so as to avoid the demurrage charges (whose holding costs accumulate over time)."

DryWasher:

The problem with the TRC as outlined above is not so much that it it is just a bad idea, which I think it is, but that it is totally unworkable.

The TRC is to be FULLY backed by a PHYSICAL inventory of about a dozen commodities including oil, wheat, copper, etc. according to the above, but where will that MASSIVE inventory be stored and how will it be managed? This is no small detail by any means. What we have here is effectively the exact opposite of just in time inventory management. Vast inventories of oil, wheat, etc. will be locked up in storage for no other reason than to provide backing for the Terra. Sorry guys, but that is just plain nuts.

It gets worse. During bad times the TRC Alliance would buy up excess inventories of these commodities and pay for them with newly printed Terras which would then be spent by the producers of these commodities to keep production rolling so that they could produce more excess to be purchased and stored by the TRC Alliance etc. etc. etc.

In conclusion let me say that I don't think anyone is going take this idea seriously, but it is interesting to look at some of these nutty ideas on a Sunday afternoon.

VanRip (msg#: 111210) I just read your message while I was getting ready to post this. I would also welcome the views of others on this subject.

GOLD, the standard of value for 5000 years and still counting.

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlWe invite you to bookmark our new page (which replaces MK's Gold Commentary & Review).

This page captures links to important gold-related stories around the internet for those who would like to find top articles Drudge-style, all in one place and just a click away. We'll update the page regularly, as needed, so visit at your leisure. Visit often.

We are now featuring the Fortune article on Warren Buffett's contention that the trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us. There's another link to one top analysts prediction that gold is going over $1000 over the next five years.

Happy browsing, and we invite you to bring your reactions and comments back to the forum for all to consider.

Life imitates art and produces a different results; In the 1975 film "3 days of the condor" Robert Redford, a CIA reader, uncovers a plot by a powerful special interest group operating within the agency, to convince politicians to invade the middle east. The movie has been playing frequently on cable, (someone made the connection?). In the movie the plot was foiled.

In the 1988 John Carpenter movie, "They Live" a dull witted hero and his action heroics are the venue for his discovery on just how his world works, memorable line; "They are destroying the middle class�we are their cattle." The movie has also been playing frequently on cable.

VanRip : The "terra" concept is nothing else than a theorethical precursor of Free Gold in a Free Gold Market ! A supra-national (imperfect) currency with an automatic (managable) cycle stabilizaton mechanism.
Forget about the "terra" (ecu-like thing) but remember the more important (valuable) concept, behind it. As to understand that ONLY
Gold is as * UNIVERSAL * as can be. Free Gold is meant to be "perfect" ! There is NO competitor (competing system) for FREE GOLD (free gold market). A basket of resources will always be the subject of changes and will tend to begin "floating" again.

Think about the following side-note : 50 years after the WWII and the holocost, nation states and victims can still and do claim their stolen Gold ! Find it strange, that Americans never claimed restitution for their confiscated Gold in exchange for a depreciating fiat-paper (1933-1971) !?

a nation of one : Whilst reading your great post, it was announced that all handlings of cash fiat will carry more costs. Immediately the "paradoxal" non Taxing of "Bullion" flashed through my head. Physical Gold in Possession is an "Official" invitation (strong suggestion) to build your own Kingdom.

misetech : Howhoww Sir...NOT "all" in EU are un-willing to accept the prospects of a NWO !!! These Atlantists keep anxiously looking/hoping for the dollar-system to survive and continue to take the lead.
But this internal euro-resistance will progressively weaken when the UK (Sweden and Denmark) will join later on.
Watch Trichet's (subtle) moves on inviting the whole of northern Africa (including Libya) into EMU...in cooperation with Spain and Italy. Wim Duisenberg left the map on the wall of the ECB's presidential office.

Just finished watching a documentary (hommage) on Duisenberg. When intervieuwed privatly in his South of France villa...he said something remarkable when questioned about the US' twin deficit and his meetings with Greenspan. It is Euroland and Japan who are providing the bulk of dollars needed to keep the dollar going ! Next scene was Wim, posing in the Amsterdam Gold vault, surrounded by 12 Kg bars of Bullion. Alan told Wim not to worry about the deficits. Wim knew better and remained silent.

Many pictures in this documentary showed Wim's constant obsession (24/7) for the euro-dollar exchange rate. He was happy with the (his) ideal rate of 1,15-1,20. Trichet wants more !

My perception is that during Duisenberg's period, there was (still probably is) an entende cordial between EU and US (ECB-FED) on exchange rates. Remember the "Washington" in the WAG. Wim was obsessed with "stability". Trichet will defenitly take the euro further during his 8 years of presidency. Gold will be there...

Great B flick.Roddy Piper plays the hero in an america troubled by hard economic times.His best line "I have come here to kick a.. and chew bubble gum and I'm all out of gum." John Carpenter knows something his movies are a message in someway.21

Thank you for your response and your insight. One of the beauties of this board is the willingness of some of the heavyweights to help along the lightweights, no matter how simple their concern. Thanks again.

Drywasher,

As I posted earlier, I don't have a clue about the pros and cons of the proposed new currency, and it's why I appreciate helpful and enlightenng responses from people like Belgian and you.

What peeked my interest was the caliber of the people who put or are putting the thing together and the place and audience where it was announced. Bernard Lietaer, the chief architect behind the Euro, is one of the chief architects, so I imagine, if nothing else, it will get some press.

As there is a degree of relevance to all events unfolding in Iraq on the POG I would like to share an observation from a British girl working with the Provisional Government based in Basra who I met on the weekend while she was on leave.

Discussing the mood of the Iraqi people she observed that most were indeed happy to see the Coalition in Iraq, were forthcoming with information on issues such as vandalism and theft of power cables etc, and are indeed grateful for the removal of Saddam and the absence of the threat of sudden arrest and the state of fear under the old regime.

On the escalating bombings and violence she was also surprisingly optimistic that these would not get much worse than they are, and would in fact start to die down. She intimated that the Iraqi people will possibly start to react against the perpetrators of these acts, and are indeed workng with the coalition to a great extent in many ways.

She also commented on the extent of negative media coverage on Iraq, and the picture she painted, certainly in the Basra region is one of gradual improvement. Mention was also made of probable contribution to the cause by both Japan and China,following recent visits by both civil and military personnel to top levels, although it is unlikely there will be military contributions.

Her feeling was that the Coalition may be able to withdraw from Iraq sooner than many pundits are predicting, possibly within another year.

Of course this is only opinion but it can help sometimes to get a viewpoint from someone who is actually on the spot. I will be in contact with her again by email, and will post anything of relevance or interest she comes up with.

Incidentally I was able to convince her where to invest her rather large tax free salary she earns being out there. We have another convertee who should be in touch with CPM over the next few weeks!! She also vaguely recalls the mysterious trucks full of gold that were turning up, but there was little info on what actually happened to them.

If anyone can offer up a vision of what would have happened if the US had not gone off gold in the thirties, and didnt have the fake gold redemption after WW2, what would the US look like today?

Interesing point. Yet another incentive to buy gold.

Your Iraq information sounds right. Basra and the south of Iraq are Shite Moslem whereas the trouble is coming from the minority Sunni Middle that can not hope to rule over the Sunnis and and northern Kurds in a Democratic Iraq. I wonder how many of the Sunni's want to give those they oppressed the vote. It's a brutal world out there hidden behind a veneer of civilization. I hope I never have to use the gold I've saved but I doubt this great credit bubble economy can keep going too much longer. Even a small increase in home insurance costs from the fires could stress bloated California monthly home financing costs. I wonder how many of those expensive homes were built with cheap particle board or other cost savers? Everyone wants to get rich but few have a clue about wealth.

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis_nov2.html

November 2, 2003
No light at the end of this tunnel, George
By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor

"The light that optimistic George Bush sees at the end of the Iraq tunnel is probably an onrushing truck, loaded with explosives."

The "Permanent" (!!!) "non-stopable" (!!!) "systemic" (!!!) currency devaluations, solve NOTHING. This repeated currency "EXPERIMENT" is as old as the first fiat-currency into existance and always ended with the restoration of GOLD ! Then, another fiat-currency-experiment with another life-time, starts AGAIN !

Answer to your question : The permanent currency depreciation is causing "permanently" collateral dammage !
One enjoys smoking (health-devaluation) up until longcancer manifests itself ! Then one runs for medication (Gold).

Today's answer to the evolving permanent devaluation is FREEGOLD !

A FOA alinea : The secret to all of this is in the "Legal Tender Laws", allowing Gold to be used as a Legal Tender for the settlement of all debts, public and private...But CHANGING INTERNATIONAL LAW SUCH THAT NO FORM OF DEBT CAN FORCE IT'S PAYMENT IN GOLD !!!

...This opens a one way street for Gold and a two way street in fiat currencies. Nobody will lend Gold because they cannot force it's return in the courts, thereby making Gold a *** Physical Only International Currency ***.

...Yet, on the other hand, we all must borrow in this modern world and currencies will be the only avenue for this. Creating a demand (and added value) for them in addition to general use demand.

Comment : What is going to stop the permanent fiat currency devaluation (smoking) and when ? Will there ever be...Is there any sigaret without nicotine and tar ? Yep, there is...FREEGOLD ! What will make us stop smoking and using FREEGOLD ? Yep, the concept behind the euro.

Mauldin (at the neighbours) has an essay on "Demographics".
Euroland is facing a huge demographical problem !!! One out of some other "fundamental" reasons for having the new Gold-Concept, build in, behind the new euro-fiat !!!

This in sharp contrast with the dollar (reserve) who wishes to keep all paper (stockmarket) artificially...UP and extremely overvalued as a fake collateral for savers, pensioners and transfer of (virtual) wealth.

That's it Remarx. Give us a signal when the answer to your question is unclear or flawed or non realistic, impossible....

If I could have just one wish for Christmas this year, it would be that everyone *EVERYONE* could grow up and understand *UNDERSTAND* your message #111267. Like the second slice of bread, it ought to be forever sandwiched together with my October 14th encapsulation of "honest money." (RE:#110359) With that basic foundation, people could feast long and well with the various political meats and fillings of their own choosing.

We walk a lonely road, my fine fellow, but it's comforting to to at least slowly see more and more of our forum-mates getting their grips on this.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

I'm not trying to define 'advisor' or 'advice'.

I'm trying to find out if Sinclair is right? There are alot of 'advisors' out there crowing about the POG, how far gold will scream and when. Are they correct?

Is FOA an 'advisor'? I'm not slightly interested in the answer. I want to know if he is right about his theories.

There are (were) dozens of mainstream gold-crowing analysts (advisors?) who predicted $400 plus gold in 2003. Will they be vindicated?

I've been listening to them all since the inception of this forum and watching gold vault from 250 to 375 (50%) is ..well...frankly, quite meagre. Yeah, yeah, yeah we wait for 'free-gold', the liberation of gold, blah, blah, blah. What a bunch of fairytales.

Gold went ballistic in 1980 due to real economic and monetary dangers, not due to spiritual and conceptual baloney.

Let me say something for the cheap seats. There is a possibility, perhaps a probability that gold will post another 10-bagger. That is why we are here, yes? You and I and the guy that posts next all have a common point of view, holding gold should be far more lucrative, profitable, safe (pick your favorite adjective) than holding any other currency on this planet, dollar Euro, yen or otherwise. We have something very definable in common.

I have alot of 'money' invested in gold. In fact, I pretty much have the farm bet on it. I don't have the time, the money, the patience etc. to listen to any more blowhards. The economic recovery underway, albeit small is measurable, yet there are a multitude of posts, article and essays devoted to why it will fail and an equal number that promise the moon. It is the same old, same old day in, day out. A tractor-trailer load of baloney & malarky is what it is.

I bought Bonner's new book, "Financial Reckoning Day", over $40. I rarely spend that kind of money on a book. I needed to hear something precise, accurate, factual. The book is lovely, a nice recount of history with riveting statistics and guess what? All kinds of theories as to where the USA is heading. Everything that is in the book is here on the internet. The same 100 'advisors' on the net are repeating in a huge, grandiose circle the same thing over and over and over again. Gold to the moon because the dollar will crash.

It's a gold mini-bubble virtuous circle thingy. Bonner mentions in his book at least a dozen names all of whom have their web sites devoted to the demise of the USD.

How can this be unlike the tech bubble where a couple dozen Wall Street analysts praised tech stocks from 97 to 01 day in, day out in there little virtuous circle thingy? They were right....for a while.

Are our gold friends correct (for a while) as well?

If your local currency craters gold will skyrocket, so will everything else. The essence of inflation, yes? And when is gold a good bet? Simple. When interest rates do not keep up to inflation rates (negative real interest rates).

Gold is not only currency of last resort it is also investment of last resort. Suck it up, it is. If interest rates are 5% and inflation is 2% (as it recently was) gold will fall. In recent history interest rates have fallen while inflation has begun to percolate. With both rates near equal gold has risen. If inflation perks up before rates rise gold will rise more but if rates rise first look out below.

Too much currency dilutes it causing rising prices, everything costs more. That includes gold in the local currency.

Gold prices are simply a rate spread phenomona while inflation is a currency related item.

It doesn't have to be anymore complicated than that.

Thank you. I got most of what you were saying, except the role of the Euro.

"What will make us stop smoking and using FREEGOLD ? Yep, the concept behind the euro."

I was under the impression that gold backing of the euro was illusory. Or is it more real than I thought? Either way, I did not quite follow why it will "make us stop smoking". Could you elaborate more on that or point me to some good resources?

Thanks! -r

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/11/04/wnan04.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/11/04/ixworld.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=22758To treat cancerous tumors.

The short answer is to see the early October 14th archives and you'll know what stands behind the euro, along with knowing its unique position vis � vis FreeGold.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Thanks for your thoughts on silver. I know i'm missing something in that market. I agree with the China situation regarding all commodities, and you would figure that China's use of silver should be exploding along with everything else. I suppose in time it will be inevitable.

What happens if gold ends the year around $380, with everyone churning out economic recovery stories, saying the price is unsustainable, etc. etc., and it goes to $430 in February/March. Does that make Sinclair a con man - being 2 months late in his predictions? Either you are trading too close to the edge or you need some Prozac.

I once paid a great deal of money to a highly experienced trader to teach me how to trade and would ask him about his price targets, and whenever I stuttered, errm... and when do you think it's going there? He'd always reply, on January 21st, at 3.24pm and 53 seconds precisely and tell me not to ask dumb questions. Hint: you make real money by being on the right side of the trend, not by nailing accurate predictions about the price being X on day Y. My observation of Sinclair since his Financial Sense days tells me that he is consistently on the right side of the trend.

The hallmark of an amateur is taking predictions at face value. Look below the surface and ask yourself how gold is going to go through $400 in short order. How about a short squeeze? And you don't get a short squeeze unless the shorts get very short, right? And the shorts don't get very short unless they think they can rout the longs. And they won't think they can rout the longs unless they perceive that the longs are nervous. And how do you make the longs nervous. By faking signs of a top in the face of wildly optimistic predictions. But then, perhaps the longs only appear to be nervous in order to ensure that the shorts get even shorter....

Will it work, or will they just chase each other round in circles. I haven't a clue, I just know that whatever happens, the stock of available gold will keep going down and sooner or later, this will show up as a higher POG. You know my technical predictions - gold broke the key .786 level at 380.50, now it should go to 458. When? Any time between now and next September is my likely guess. Is the final high on gold going to be 460 or 529 or 556 or 600 or 800 or 1500 or 8000? No-one knows because no-one knows what US monetary policy will look like in 18 months time. Does it really matter? No. All you need to know is that gold is in an uptrend until proven otherwise. If you are long of an uptrend, you will make money. Period.

Remember also, gold is not some third-rate internet stock pushed up and down by a bunch of daytraders, but a game with immeasurably higher stakes. It can only be won by enormous patience, subtlety, stealth and subterfuge. It's naive to assume that the Cabal wakes up and says 'Oh Gee! We really wanted to cover our shorts at $360, but there are all these buy orders at $390. I guess we'll just have to take the loss. Gnarly bummer, dude!, and even more naive to assume that the Jim Sinclairs of this world think, 'I have a cunning plan that will make me richer than Midas. I shall post on my website that I shall keep buying gold until the price is $420, small investors will read my website, and will also buy gold. And if the gold price reverses by $5, I shall write another comment on my website saying, Do not worry, little small investor, I have a friend who will also be buying gold until the price is $420. If you are still worried, send me an E-mail and I will reply with a personalized 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' message' and Wall Street will tremble in their boots and cover their shorts.

You are not alone. A number of us have put a lot into gold.

There is not anything precise that can be said about what
POG is going to do. But a lot of people will be glad to
tell you what they think, myself included. Risk is one of
the principle characteristics inherent in buying and
selling -and in holding- anything. Uncertainty is a
principle characteristic of all risk.

Jim Sinclair is a nice guy, and I read his comments daily.
But even he doesn't know what gold is going to do. He was
saying '400' months and months ago. And he may be right
sooner or later. What is useful about his remarks, in my
estimation, is that he is knowledgeable about the market
and has experience and training. These I take seriously.

There are plenty of very good reasons to expect that POG
will go higher. More people are realizing this, and this
alone is an important factor. The reasons to believe that
it will go lower for the most part depend on false
information, as far as I can tell.

If it were easy to tell when gold is going to go up or
down, everybody would be rich. But it is not that way.
When it is up, everybody is happy; when it's down,
everyone is scared. What is important is to recognize that
THE PRIMARY TREND IS STILL UP. POG could come down quite a
bit without starting a downward primary trend. Stay with
the primary trend.

It is during times when the secondary or intermediate
trend is down that people get scared and sell. Then it
goes up again. That is deliberate to an extent. What
matters is what you do during these events. If you sell
when you are scared, and buy when you are feeling
optimistic, you will become a victim of the speculators.
Use your brain, not your heart. Think. And then do what
your most careful thoughts tell you. This does not
guarantee success, but it does tend to minimize failure.
And when you make the best decision you can make under a
circumstance, if it goes wrong, you don't feel quite as
bad as when you only follow your emotions. I'm sure
everyone probably already knows this.

The swings in price which gold undergoes is one reason
many prefer to own physical. And these swings will get
much larger if and when the price goes higher. So it is
useful to cultivate a certain degree of equilibrium in
one's emotions. When POG falls, sometimes I go for a walk.
Or laugh about what a deluded chump I was, to think I
would make money. When it is going up, I follow it avidly
to see when it will fall, because I am sure that it will.
Then, when it does, I get involved in something else to
take my mind of off it. I wait for the bottom, then, if I
can, I buy more.

I remind myself over and over that I am committed to
benfitting from the primary trend.

When my broker calls, I tell him, "No. Don't call me. I'll
call you," and, "Thank you, but I am not interested in
selling," and, "My goal is to benefit from the primary
trend." After a while he gets the idea. I also own
physical. When POG drops ten points I count my money, to
be sure I have enough to outlast the fall. I sleep okay. I
have made some money. I have lost some money. On the
whole, I am ahead. Quite nicely in fact. I keep reminding
myself that reality must eventually set in. When it does,
gold will probably go higher.

Right now there is a great desire, on the part of some,
for events to transpire is such a way as to get a certain
office holder re-elected. That is down the road a bit. But
present national effects are being given free reign
consistent with these hopes. They are still nonetheless in
conflict however with what is really going on
economically, here and abroad, according to what little I
can see.

Maybe if you lifted weights, or something, you would feel
better. When you subject your body to such stress, your
brain produces morphine-like substances which make you
feel better. That's why I take a walk. It lifts my mood.

These are just my opinions. No one is responsible for the
outcome of your actions but yourself.

but can he take the two pieces of bread we've offered and make a sandwich?

I don't think so. He said it himself -- he walks on eggshells.

But we, *WE* walk in the footsteps of giants!

Gold. Get you some. (Although I predict many won't, having been lulled into complacency.) --- Ari

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2003/11/04/rtr1134346.htmlSnip:

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The number of job cuts announced by U.S. employers surged 125 percent in October, after declining for two months, calling into question the strength of the recovery in the job market.

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms shot up to 171,874 jobs in October, from 76,506 in September, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Tuesday. Announced layoffs were at their highest since Oct. 2002, when 176,010 job cuts were announced.

"With factors like technology, outsourcing, and consolidation working against job creation, any job market rebound we see in the near future will be relatively small," said John Challenger, chief executive at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.
**************************
Misetich

The SM SOARED yesterday (funny always seems to do - after some 'bad news event or bad trade deficit announcements' (over the week-end close to 20 US GI's lost their lives in Iraq and many more injured- which by all counts is a NEGATIVE since the costs of "reconstructing Iraq" will increase as the Iraqi civilian resistance to US occupation continues)

The Challenger report is sobering and newsworthy since without job creation the long sought US economic recovery will go nowhere

All the "good news" and expected continuation of "good news" is priced in the SM and the US $, yet thus far the "good economic news" has been obtained through government stimuli, (huge rebates such as child credits were distributed during 3rd qtr)low IR which continue to "fuel" housing construction bubble and IR derivatives bubble, military spending etc -

The US $ rebound is a temporary phenomena as "shorts" covered their positions - thus the adjustment in gold price in US $ terms -

The underlying primary trend for the US $ and SM is southbound

Until the economy starts to create meaningful paying jobs, and wage increases return to levels outpacing CPI (real not the massaged version) consumer spending is dependent on unsastainable sources such as refinancing etc.

The jobless US economic recovery continues just as the Twin deficits continue to grow

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B587E1DC6%2D895E%2D472F%2D8F42%2DC3B1BB851495%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

So far in 2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced, the third year in a row exceeding 1 million. In 2001, 1.96 million jobs were cut; in 2002, 1.47 million jobs were cut.

In a separate poll conducted by Challenger of corporate personnel managers, 78 percent said there would not be a significant rebound in hiring before the second quarter of 2004. Eleven percent said the rebound would come in the third or fourth quarter and 11 percent said there wouldn't be a rebound in 2004. No one expected a rebound within the next six months.
**************
Misetich

Interesting - Reuters article (link posted - misetich (11/4/03; 08:50:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 111277) did not include Challenger's separate poll

Always pays to due own dilegence and dig deeper

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6EC0027C%2D2793%2D4009%2D8FD7%2D2CDED788BB7E%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Tyco International said Tuesday it'll cut 7,200 jobs in a new restructuring that will include the consolidation of 219 facilities and the sale of its undersea fiber-optic business.
..................
Tyco's restructuring plan also includes exiting more than 50 of its businesses, including the Tyco Global Network (TGN), its undersea fiber-optic telecommunications network. Tyco said the businesses had combined annualized revenues of $2.1 billion in fiscal 2003, or about 6 percent of the company's revenue.

The businesses to be exited are in every Tyco business segment except plastics and adhesives, the company said. Measured by revenue, more than half of the planned divestitures are in the fire and security segment, it said.
****************
Misetich

More addtions to the 'bone pile' - whilst the Feds and WallStreet "celebrate" the good news of an "improving economy" the unemployed line get deeper

The Feds attempt to boost 'confidence' in light of harsh economy reality is leading ordinary citizens over the abyss
as investment decisions are being made on "false information"

How much more damage (and consequences to be paid later) is being done by these charlatans?

It is one thing to "restore and maintain calm" to avoid a stampede and organize an orderly way out BUT to "build confidence" through disseminating false and misleading information is simply a disastrous strategy.

No wonder Buffet, Gross, Soros are selling US $ -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

I sincerely do appreciate your excellent and challenging post ! You rightly deserve all our attention with your justified outcry. Let us call a spade a spade and do some honest, constructive, to the point, hard talking, Sir.
Don't run away and take nothing personal from the Belgian dwarf. Here we go...

If you doubt, for only one single second, about the potential revaluation of Gold...rush to the exit and go for any...ANY alternative ! The Belgian dwarf (big mouth, small hart, bad character) has NOT made one single euro of profit (?) YET...from his Physical Gold Wealth Holdings (in euro)! BUT,...naive Belgian keeps on buying when confetti is available. Gold in euro ( 2 yrs chart euro/Kg) is flat and Gold in dollar is in the plus (+25%).

Let us run through the "alternatives", silvercollector.
Not the past ones but the present and future ones :

1/ Bond-debt-paper : The present 45 year low (near zero) interest rates have only 2 possibilities : staying low/lower or rise. Not much profit to be made on the downside (w're almost at zero) and at what interest are you going to buy debt-paper ? And do you realize, exactly, what you have done, when having debt-paper, exchanged for confetti !? Yes, you do ! I know you do. This kind of alternative is (must) be excluded for ever. Ring the bell if we have to argument more on this.

2/ Stock Market : Today, the risk-reward chances are NOT a match at all, for any type of "CONSERVATIVE" investor...INVESTOR !!! Repeat : conservative and investor.
Investigate how the US$ 6 TRILLION of American savings (idem for EU) in the thousands of "Funds" are doing on average since 2000 !?

What about the stock markets' chances on return for the next decade ? Same answer : Conservative Investors NEED undervalued VALUES and quasi certain STABLE GROWTH prospects before seriously risking any of their confetti.
There's one little (sic) problem...THERE ARE VERY FEW CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS LEFT !!! They all morphed into casino-gambling-addicts ! This is happening on a massive scale, AGAIN, silvercollector ! All such evolutions end with the inevitable return to "CONSERVATISM" !!! To conserve...

Back to the roots, modernized conservative roots, is a "process" ! There is no standardization on how and for what period such processus takes place. This is the only reply that I can give on your (mine and others) outcry on the many Gold-Theories that we have been digesting all together here.

If the above is much to theorethical (wich it is not, imo) than skip the following, leave your unprecious yellow and jump into the perpetual paper business.

3/ Derivatives : The only winners in this casino are the owners ! Hope this is briefly enough.

4/ Currencies : Surfing as a sandparticle on the forex-wave of US$ 1,2 Trillion per day. Good luck.

5/ Other tangibles than Gold : Specialist's work. Fully paid and unecumbered *home* is already a nice achievement (investment) for the many of us.

Back to some more gardening as to ponder on a final phrase...

One's Gold Holdings should be proportionate to one's fate in the *** Dollar EXPERIMENT ***.
Physical Gold was and will never be meant to * MAKE * money ! Use Gold-derivatives (including goldmines) if you wish to speculate/gamble on Gold !
FOA nor MK are advising on how to make money ! On the contrary...FOA tried to explain what WEALTH is and why it might be wise to exchange your made money (?) for wealth, NOW ! FOA isn't wrong on this advise-fundamental.

I've been running briefly over the financial alternatives that are there, meant to have another possibility to make money, confetti. But is "this" kind of making money, still in line with what is to be defined as "investment" and participation in the profits of genuine growth of free enterprises !?

Silvercollector, how many people in your environment, do you know of having multiplied their total savings (!) by ten (10), during 20 years of perpetual stockmarket rise ???

Answer : zero ! Am I right ?

How many individuals (percentage wise) out of the stockmarket crowd, had one single ten-bagger (big or small investment) in their portfolio ?

Answer : very little percentage ! Do you agree ?

Who were the ones that permanently "made" money/confetti in the past 20 years of financial mania ?

Answer : Those that organised the play/casino and their proxy insiders and privileged monopolists !

A very ...VERY, extremely small percentage of the masses made it to a mil/bilionaire in the financial confetti lotery. The masses have to stick to the papers they are holding and NOT run for any exit with their hyper-overvalued stuff, without causing a catastrophic financial crash. The same counts for the monetary field.

Where are you going to find a "conservative investment" opportunity, for the total of your savings, in this financial jungle ? How many enterprises have sound and reliable profitabily outlook, guaranteed for the next decade ??? What are the fundamental reasons, WHY, I'm coming up with such a gloomy outlook ???

Icons like K. Richebacher have seen it all for over 2 generations (50 yrs). Their accumulation of experience has developed a strong sense of intuition. His intuition leads to Gold.

Hope I haven't been irritating you with the classical preaching. Dinner time.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=3750296Snip:

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Last minute shopping for Halloween-related supplies put U.S. chain store sales on the upside as the California wildfires continued to curb gains, a report said on Tuesday. Sales rose 0.5 in the week ended Nov. 1, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS said in a joint report, compared with a 0.9 percent dip in the preceding week. Compared with the previous year, sales for the week were up 5.1 percent.

The fires that swept through Southern California negatively affected regional sales even as far as Nevada. Unseasonably warm temperatures weakened sales further.

BTM/UBS settled on the low end of its previous October comparable store sales growth estimate to 2.5 percent to 3 percent on a year-over-year basis.
*****************
Misetich

California's economy - which is a big engine of the US economy is faltering - the "news spin" blames the fire that swept SC for poor sales growth -
The auto industry substantial decrease in sales in California was blamed on a $400 tax (which auto dealers offered to partially absorb)

The excuses and spin continue waiting and hoping for a better tomorrow - yet the foundations are crumbling - and individuals and corporations are being encouraged to add additional stress to the pourous foundation

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20031104/bs_nm/manufacturing_tyco_earns_dcTyco to Cut 7,200 Jobs, Exit Businesses

By Tim McLaughlin

BOSTON (Reuters) - Tyco International Ltd. on Tuesday said it would eliminate 7,200 jobs, exit more than 50 business lines and sell its undersea fiber-optic cable network as it unwinds the far-flung empire built by former Chairman Dennis Kozlowski.

The Bermuda-based conglomerate said it took a charge of $1.2 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, ended Sept. 30, for the restructuring and divestitures, leaving the company with a net loss for the period.


Tyco Chairman Edward Breen, hired last year to replace Kozlowski, who is on trial in a Manhattan criminal court on corruption charges, said the moves will accelerate Tyco's ability to bolster profits.


Wall Street appeared to agree, sending Tyco shares up 5 percent in early trade.


The business lines being exited have annual revenue of $2.1 billion, or about 6 percent of Tyco's total revenue base. The job cuts represent about 3 percent of the conglomerate's work force of 260,000.


In a conference call, Breen promised investors and analysts "solid" results in 2004 but acknowledged a number of problems at Tyco operations that make everything from hospital supplies to burglar alarms.


For example, he said the ADT security business in Europe is "bleeding."


"We know it will bleed through 2004 so we are looking at any other steps here," he said after an analyst suggested shutting it down.


Tyco's restructuring also includes consolidating 219 manufacturing, sales and distribution and other facilities.


For the fourth quarter, Tyco posted a net loss of $297.1 million, or 15 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $1.4 billion, or 72 cents a share, a year earlier.


Among the businesses it plans to sell is Tyco Global Network, an undersea fiber-optic cable business that has suffered billions of dollars of losses amid the telecommunications meltdown.


Excluding the undersea network, known as TyCom, Tyco said it expects to generate at least $400 million from the divestiture program.


TyCom had a pre-tax loss of $117 million in fiscal 2003, ended Sept. 30, while Tyco took charges of $942 million to reduce its carrying value on its books and to account for impaired goodwill.


Billed as the largest in the world, the network's market value soared in 2000 when Tyco sold a minority stake to investors through an initial public offering.


The sale of about 14 percent of TyCom generated a one-time gain of nearly $1.8 billion for Tyco. Manhattan prosecutors say Kozlowski used the successful IPO as justification to award nearly $100 million in bonus payments to himself and other executives and managers.


That sort of behavior is central to the prosecution's accusations against Kozlowski and former Tyco Chief Financial Officer Mark Swartz, who are accused of looting Tyco of $600 million through unauthorized pay and illicit stock sales. Their lawyers deny the charges.


Tyco shares were up $1.05 at $22.07 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

First we define WHAT Freegold is, then we explain WHY it is needed and then we try to guess WHO and HOW it is going to made happen. WHAT > WHY > WHO > HOW.
Once again...the euro is NOT backed by Gold but is concepted to profit from FREEGOLD !
Read Aristotle 2/7/2000, 7:15:24MDT - msg ID:24589 USAgold-Archives.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6C09E638%2DFF05%2D4758%2D98D9%2D06BA07BCE64F%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Fraudulent trading in mutual funds is far more widespread than previously thought, with one in four of the nation's largest broker-dealers engaging in illegal late trading of funds, federal securities regulators said Monday as Congress opened a series of hearings into fund-industry abuses.
......................
The SEC based its findings on the results of a preliminary survey of the broker-dealers and the nation's 88 largest mutual fund companies. The probe was prompted by an investigation by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's office earlier this year.
.................
*************
Misetich

SEC is a farce - year in and year out this Corporate governance regulatory body has stood idle and allowed the tramplings and investor pillage was conducted by CEO's, corporate insiders, investment houses, brokers etc

The reverbarating "noise" from the SEC is being prompted by Spitzer's actions

Very few are being prosecuted from the the thousands and thousands that have perpetrated investors fraud during the last several years

One can imagine the outcry and consequences of ANOTHER leg down during this SM bear rally

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031104/financial_eu_accounting_2.htmlReuters
EU wants bigger role in accounting standards body
Tuesday November 4, 10:36 am ET
By Lisa Jucca


BRUSSELS, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The EU's top financial regulator called on Tuesday for Europe to play a bigger role in the body that drafts global accounting standards, reflecting fears the body is dominated by the United States.



At a meeting late Monday, Internal Market Commissioner Frits Bolkestein told Paul Volcker, head of the trustees of the International Accounting Standard Board (IASB), that the EU was concerned about the way the board operates, his spokesman said.

The European Union has pledged its 7,000 listed firms will start using the upcoming bookkeeping rules from 2005 in a bid to improve the quality of financial reporting and prevent scandals such as Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and Ahold (Amsterdam:AHLN.AS - News).

But the EU has said the IASB does not sufficiently consider the needs of Europe's financial industry when drafting the rules rules even though the EU is the main backer of the whole plan.

"The Commissioner has outlined the EU concerns about the structure and the decision-making process of the IASB in accordance with a declaration by EU finance ministers last June," Bolkestein's spokesman Jonathan Todd told Reuters on Tuesday.

Todd said Bolkestein also raised the issue during a meeting of finance ministers that was mainly dealing with France's rising budget deficit.

TIME TO APPLY PRESSURE

The IASB's trustees are holding a two-day meeting in Brussels to discuss a revision of the board's constitution.

EU sources said the Commission believes the board is heavily influenced by Anglo-Saxon views even if the United States has said it is not going to endorse the global bookkeping rules.

The Commission sees the review of the IASB constitution as a chance to pressure the board into making changes that would appease EU nations, particularly France.

Volcker said on Tuesday he did not believe the EU would withdraw from its pledge to start using the standards.

"I am confident that the commitment to international accounting standards will be maintained," Volker told Reuters in an interview.

"(Bolkestein) expressed his concern that we consulted about the changes. We believe that we have had consultations."

The EU has been putting pressure on the IASB since July after French President Jacques Chirac wrote in a letter that certain standards would damage the EU economy -- in particular the banking industry -- by introducing greater volatility.

This move led to the EU refusing to adopt two key standards for the accounting of derivatives that are now being re-written.

But senior IASB officials have said the criticism stemmed from fears that the new rules would punch big holes in the balance sheets of certain companies.

"There is a lot of pressure in some quarters in Europe to reject the proposed change. Lurking behind it is a minority feeling that it would be better not to adopt the new accounting standards," Volcker said.


Comment:
I know this is a "snide" remark, but accounting, in general brings out the fight in me.

France wants in on accounting changes?

France?

They think of themselves as the "Artistic Elites" so, yes, it is very fitting that they would want to be involved in a purely mathematical business and further turn it into an art form.

Give me a break!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE2ECE1B7%2D4D7F%2D467E%2D876B%2D1738137555DB%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

"We have a huge debt overhang. When deflation really hits, you will see very strong demand for gold and commodities," said Frank Veneroso, market strategist for the global policy committee of Allianz Dresdner Asset Management.
....................
"People are getting fed up with the dollar," said Jim Rogers, a financial author and commodities specialist. "I don't get my advice from the Fed. I'm shorting stocks right now."
***************
Misetich

Savy advice from both, Rogers and Veneroso

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

My apologies, Sir for the duplication. I should have read the previous posts.

Again, my apologies!

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/04/opinion/04KRUG.htmlSnip:

The law comes with various wordings; my favorite is: "Things that can't go on forever, don't." Believe it or not, that's a useful reminder
.................
The prime example I have hammered on in this column is, of course, the federal budget. Realistic budget projections say that current policies aren't remotely sustainable...............The bipartisan Concord Coalition and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities concluded that under current policies, federal debt would rise by $5 trillion over the next decade. And then baby boomers will start collecting benefits, and our debt will really explode.
..................
Such explosive growth in debt can't go on forever, and it won't. Yet our current leaders and their apologists insist that the problem will magically solve itself
......................
But the day of reckoning seems closer on a different front.
................
In September the Congressional Budget Office analyzed how many U.S. soldiers could be kept in Iraq without extending tours beyond one year. The conclusion was that force levels would have to start dropping rapidly about five months from now, and that the forces in Iraq and Kuwait would eventually have to shrink by almost two-thirds. As the report explains, the Pentagon can use various expedients to maintain a larger force in Iraq, but all of these expedients would threaten to undermine our military readiness.
..................
Yet we keep expecting a magic solution. We'll get European, Indian and Pakistani forces to help us! But since we went to war without international support, they're not interested. We'll bring in the Turks! But the Iraqi Governing Council itself is bitterly opposed. We'll engage in "Iraqification," creating local forces that take the place of American troops! Let's hope that works � but hope is not a plan.

Just as the federal government is in no immediate danger of running out of money, our forces in Iraq are in no danger of outright defeat. But in both cases, current policies appear to be unsustainable: we can't go on like this indefinitely. And things that can't go on forever, don't.
************
Misetich

Right on Mr. Krugman! Right On! Things can't go on forever and they won't

Mr. Krugman made an excellent call during 92-94 predicting a collpase of SE Asian economies

Is Krugman right again?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Sir Cockerel1, yes, you are right. That was a snide and, if I may say so, unjustified remark, unless you can make a more factual analysis on the differences in current accounting practices around the world. Of more interest to me from this article is why the United States (which has given us such recent SYSTEMIC gems as the S&L accounting mess) is not going to endorse the international standard.

Anyone ?
C!

Just wanted to let you know I appreciate the volume of interesting tidbits you have been bringing to the Forum recently.
Thanks ! C!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3239587.stmSnip:

The US government will spend $18.6bn on rebuilding Iraq. But will it be enough?
...............
The bulk of the money - some $51bn - is going to fund the US military presence in Iraq, whose cost is running at nearly $4bn per month.

.....................
Earlier hopes by US officials that there would be substantial reductions in US forces on the ground have not been realised, with the 180,000 US personnel likely to remain in the region for some time to come.

And the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the total cost of the US military occupation of Iraq could range from $85bn to $200bn over the next ten years, depending how quickly US forces are withdrawn.
....................
By then it may become clear whether the funding gap (between the $25bn pledged for non-oil reconstruction and the estimated needs of $35bn) can be met by increased oil revenues.
*****************
Misetich

The US led beg for donors session recently held in Spain resulted in mostly lip service from other world countries - Japan committed 5-6 billions, other major "donors" were the IMF and Worldbak thus the US taxpayer is stuck footing the bill for an ill advised invasion

US general public has not yet realized the costs and burden of this erroneous Iraqi path - yet each passing day the stark reality of fierce Iraqi resistance is beginning to hit home

Even though, the Feds, in an unparalled media censuring coverage have somewhat managed to keep US citizens approval rating up, (wonder though if sentiment of support would change if they showed the daily stream of coffins arising out of Iraq - interesting Bush has reportedly not attended GI's funerals) the odds are against them

As Iraq's civilian resistance continues it wouldn't surprise if the oil pipeline infrastrure will be a target of destruction thus the much counted upon revenues to counter the costs of occupation will not materialize thus adding the burden to the US and its ever growing fiscal deficit

Is Iraq the New Vietnam? or is it the Afganistan version of the USSR invasion which led to the demise of the Red Superpower?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Sir Clink!

Accounting practices are different throughout the world because of one thing only.

Taxes!

The "art" of manipulating the numbers becomes more so, as it effects the bottom line.

Having held the position of V.P. in a publicly traded company, having also owned my own construction company for a number of years, and being married to an Accountant, certainly allows me to speak with some authority.

The Euro has been working its way this morning, more or less linearly, back up to $1.15. And gold seems to be gravitating up to $380, in spite of the big shorts pushing it down every so often.

Corporation and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to Move Into Discovery Phase

NEW ORLEANS, Nov 4, 2003 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --Blanchard and Company, Inc. received word today from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana that its case against Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX; Toronto) and J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) once again may continue into the discovery phase of the lawsuit.
The Court denied Defendants' Motions for Reconsideration of Judge Berrigan's September 3rd ruling.
Blanchard's Complaint that Barrick and Morgan have violated U.S. antitrust laws by unlawfully combining to manipulate the price of gold and to monopolize the market in gold was brought in December of 2002.
In denying Defendants' Motions, the Court stated that, "Motions made pursuant to Rules 59(e) and 60(b) ... are not intended to relitigate issues properly before the Court when it issued the challenged ruling, or raise newfacts or arguments that were not then before the Court ...
This is what Defendants have attempted to do here. While the Defendants are understandably dissatisfied with a ruling not in their favor, this is neither the time nor method to raise these issues again."
Blanchard's CEO, Donald W. Doyle, Jr., stated that, "Barrick and Morgan appear to have lost the chance to delay the discovery phase of the case any further." Having already served J.P. Morgan and Barrick with its requests for production, Blanchard expects to move into the discovery process immediately.



Comment: Do not have link. Will try and locate for later post.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20031104&archive=prnews&slug=2003_11_04_12_1113_1035306For those interested.

http://atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EK01Dh01.htmlSnip:

TOKYO - Higher labor costs, yen appreciation resulting in the outsourcing of production facilities and growing computerization all point to a long-term structural increase in Japan's jobless. Due to heavy losses in labor-intensive sectors, companies are planning further outsourcing of their production facilities to countries where labor costs are much lower.

....................
Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in August, the lowest level since the 5 percent posted in August 2001, according to a report released by the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications. That means that during the last two years, employment has not improved
.................
The weakening dollar and the stronger yen had not taken their toll as the Bank of Japan heavily intervened in the currency market. But after John Snow, the United States Treasury Secretary, criticized Japanese exchange rate intervention in a congressional committee in Washington, the yen rose as high 107 yen to US$1, breaking the psychological barrier of 108 yen. Speculation is for a trend toward 105 yen and more yen appreciation shortly.
.................
Although the banking sector has been the main beneficiary of the recent stock market rise, some banks like the Resona Group expect to cut employees, with the group dismissing some 4,000 employees,reducing its staff from 19,000 to 15,000 by March 2005
......................
The banks are not alone in their restructuring plans. Sanyo is emblematic of the new and unsettling Japan......Other companies in the same or related sectors like Futjitsu and Hitachi have also announced losses.........
..............
That means that if Japan's companies are to become more competitive, the job cuts will continue, changing long-held standards of Japanese society. Those changes are bound to be painful for a society not used to pain.
*****************
Misetich

As the Yen appreciates against the US $ (inevitable ) Japan's financial woes and SE Asia as a whole will accelerate

The US dependence on Japan, SE Asia, to keep on purchasing Treasury and agency debt (already reaching gargantulan proportions) is spelling doomsday for the US $ and low IR - (An increase in IR to attract overseas investments in the US will trigger and burst the Housing bubble - and increasing costs to consumers and a reduction in discretionary spending

China - Friend or foe?
EU led by Germany and France - Friend or foe?
Russia - friend or foe?
Muslims countries - friend or foe?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe GOLD P&F chart has the RED REVERSAL shown !
Next comes the little GREEN "X"'s ROCKET !
$396. $396. $396.
<;-)

I have been reading and more or less following the discussions on this forum for about three years now. Except for entering (and losing) an occasional guessing contest, I have not had much to contribute to this mostly erudite forum. There are those on this forum who (in my inexpert opinion) seek to 'make it big' in gold. They tend to grumble and complain when ever that goal seems to be eluding them or takes too long.

I think (again, in my inexpert opinion) that perhaps they do not see gold in its true light. It has been said here, many times, that gold is a _preserver_ of wealth. The dollar is dying and something else must be exchanged for whatever remains of the dollar's value in order to preserve that remaining value. Rather than viewing gold as a multiplier of value, it should be viewed as a keeper of that value.

There is no linear relation between the dollar and gold at the present time because of manipulation of them both. For a while at least, as long as 'cheap gold' is available. an advantage is to be gained by purchasing gold but, inevitably, its true value in dollars must become manifest.

That is when the sole advantage of gold purchases will be to lock in the value represented in dollars at that instant in time and protect wealth against the further erosion of the fiat. This is the true function and purpose of the purchase of gold.

Am I the only American who is getting a little weary of the drumbeat of criticism of US policy here? Mostly from our Euro-geniuses who have not managed fifty years of peace since Rome fell--until we set up NATO to keep a lid on things.

We were criticised by these same people for being "too late" to the parties held in WWI and WWII. Now, we catch heck for being "too early" other places. (Can't please 'em all.)

Or for not relying upon the feckless UN to step in after twelve years of doing nothing in Iraq...as they failed to do in Bosnia recently, and in keeping the Hutu and Tutsie tribes from hacking each other to pieces.

Or, president Bush does not attend enough military funerals--we have buried over 3,000 of our own in the past two years since 9-11--just how many funerals would satisfy your elitist standards?

If someone has a clue--would there be a useful suggestion here? Shall we bring back the Taliban? Perhaps. But I need to hear that from the ladies of that land, not some twit with a whistle. How about Iraq? Saddam is still alive. Shall we bring him back? --again, no votes from the peanut gallery, or from those who did not realize the threat of Hitler until sometime between the fall of Paris and Dunkirk.

"Schadenfreunde", (the gleeful recounting of difficulties)presented in sad tones, has no place here, IMO. We get plenty of that in the liberal press. Perhaps when dozens of our finest die far away, there is an impact upon gold. Perhaps not. Perhaps the US will fail. Big time. Careful, though, you may not like what you seem to wish for!

The basic truth of gold is rising to the surface. Can we just try to keep out eye on the ball and let someone else watch the cheerleaders on other forums?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1750Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick and Morgan wins
power to extract evidence, moving the case into the
"discovery phase." And oh, what may be discovered!

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1750


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Thank you Buongiorno! You are not alone, but some of us have just given up the fight. There are too many posts to respond to with my limited lunchtime at work, so I just read what I can about gold and don't bother replying to those convinced that the US is the ultimate danger to peace in the world.

What I would like to see is if anyone has any information on exploration news that would give goldbugs and silverfish big gummy grins?

I do have a suggestion for the more politically minded on the forum though... if you are concerned about the gold and silver supply and are politically minded, why not begin political action and letter writing to get the regulations that strangle domestic mining in the US alleviated?

Good day to you Mr. Buongiorno!

Obviously my posts have hit a nerve -

You asked

Am I the only American who is getting a little weary of the drumbeat of criticism of US policy here?

Answer

The two posts, dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan - addressed the economic impact of the pre-emptive strikes military and political decisions on both Iraq and Afhanistan and contemplated in the other counties classified as the Axis of Evil - Iran and North Korea

The economic impact of those military decisions have a tremendous impact on the US economy and the US $ and corresponding effect on GOLD,. The costs are rising beyond expectations. The Afghanistan article published in AsiaTimes was posted to illustrate and provide a balance of coverage that American media does not accentuate.

The intend to post a link to the article was in the nature of pointing out the ECONOMIC COSTS OF WAR.

Several months ago President Bush declared Victory against Iraq, yet several months later, yet months later it appears that it is a quagmire and things getting worse.

The point of the disucsions was strictly economics and not intended to be political.

Economist Paul Krugman says the same thing- So does Buffet, so does Gross.

Are they Un-American?

Why is it that a when a 'different view' is expressed immediately is pounced upon to censure it? That's not the American way Mr. Buongiorno!


Buenasera to you and Ciao

..................
All On Board The Gold Bull Express

I recently installed new OS and Browser and carelessly lost some very useful links. One was a website collection of international news links I got from a post in this forum with a name that begins with Chaos-xxxx. Can anyone refresh my memory on that one? I miss it.

I thoroughly appreciate the information here, but as suggested by earlier posters, we seem to be increasing our political preaching at each other (I am not guiltless here, so the colective "we" is appropriate). If a lot of us are noticing it, it is probably both true and counter productive.

This seems to be a really volatile time for PMs and related investments, so the more we focus the bandwidth in this endeavor, the more we honor our hosts' intended purpose.

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/This the one?

Seems to the less mined the better, for those of us who are "holding " now. Relaxing enviornmental standards would be the worst possible course of action.

Buongiorno.....Since when did politics and war not affect gold? Gold has been the engine of both since the pharaohs of Egypt. I finally put most of my assets into gold when gwb exposed his agenda, it came right close to home for me. As for gwb I don't understand why he doesn't order a couple of billion box cutters, we could rule the world!

Indeed, only your P&F boys have odd criteria for filling in their boxes.

In my book, the 392 box is only filled if POG trades at 396.00 or higher, so the 388 box should have been filled in due to the fact that gold traded over 392, but not the 392 box, as gold never traded over 396. Now, the 3 box reversal is inked in after gold trades below 376.00, since the first box is the 384 box, which is filled by a trade at 383.99 or lower, the 2nd is the 380 box (filled by a trade at 379.99 or lower) and the 3rd is the 376 (filled by a trade at 375.99 or lower).

As fasr as I can see, gold never traded below 364, so the low box should be the 368 box - we have 5 columns, so we go 15 boxes up, which should fill the 428, i.e. gold will actually peak around 432.

This may all seem like pedantry on my part, but I believe that you need to know precisely whether your TA methods are working or not.

Senior Misetich, Ah! Yes! Criticism IS the American way, and we get plenty of it, some deserved. However, my point was to ask for constructive alternatives to what is now being done. To simply be "a critic" lends little to the discussion. Most of us are well qualified to do this. That, in itself, is neither American, nor un-American, IMO. But, finding workable solutions to complicated problems--now yer talkin'!

Perhaps our Italian friends would get a bottle of nice wine, find a little shade, and contemplate the nicer things. They don't hold much stock in politics, and they may well be correct. Add a few gold coins to this tranquil scene, and we may be on the right path. I am afraid our shouting will not amount to much in the end, anyway, my friend. But our gold will.

Chin-Chin!
Buongiorno!

@Buongiorno! I am an American who feels there is far too little criticism of our foreign policy. I believe that our administration now includes war criminals. I don't think that makes the Europeans any less imperialistic than we, but they are certainly not in the forefront of aggression now as we are. I welcome support from friends in Europe. Only through worldwide efforts can we stop the building of the latest empire. Gold will provide financial security, but it is not an amulet that provides safety from terrorists.

@Belgian and Aristotle. Thanks for the leads. I will read Ari's message as soon as I can get to it.

Signor Buongiorno!

Each in our way attempts to contribute to a an ever learning process. We're fortunate, thanks to our good natured host have an opportunity to learn on the value of gold investments through the vehicle such as the forum.

The "criticism" if interpreted as such, is intended to stimulate and foster discussion on complex issues that affect economics and monetary issues, which GOLD plays a major role.

GOLD is the ultimate storage of wealth, to which investors flock to during times of economic turbulence.

GOLD itself may be described as a "critic" of the political and monetary decision making process.

GOLD shouts loudly and lets itself be heard when poor blunderous decision are made by politicos and bankers. It did so boisterously during the '70's in response to various factors that led to Staglation.

Signor Buongiorno! Chin - Chin to you with a good glass of Chianti

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

It was a memorable conference. Probably the best ever, as most of the attendees have felt. This is just a fast hello, as I'll be on the road for another 2 weeks.

The speakers have been superb and to also add a short quote to misetich's Frank
Venoroso's and Jim Roger's quote I'll pick Bill Bonner's:
"The Americans are buying things they don't need with money they don't have." (abbr.)

Best cb2

PS: @ MK -Great meeting you and your fine team and thanks again.

Shermag-

YES! Thanks much!

Hey, 111269, great post! You've expressed the thoughts of many of us, I believe.

As for my thoughts on what constitutes an advisor or advice, please take them with a grain of salt and picture me grinning when I wrote those words. I tend to look for facts, numbers and information but I also listen (as do most of us I suspect) to opinions. It's often hard to get one without the other, other than perhaps USDA crop reports. However, I'm careful to differentiate between the two.

I'm going to agree with you in thinking that the dollar probably will not crash or burn. I never thought it would but it may, in light of the Fed.'s monetary inflation, devalue against any and/or all objects that are priced in dollars and cents. I wonder also if all the fiat that has been exported, to balance our trade deficits over these last many years, will return one fine day. Or perhaps it will be recycled into long term paper debt instruments into the forseeable future.? I tend to believe everything has a way of surfacing in time. When, if ever, does the debt on all levels have to be settled? Perhaps the Chinese might want to save enough and then settle by buying California?

As for putting all your investment eggs in one basket, please be careful. Wealth stored in gold is a fine idea but I gether from your words that you, like myself, are "invested" in gold (silver, cotton, corn, soybeanoil, etc.) to make money. As a trader I'd warn that too much money invested in one place intensifies risk, some foreseeable and some not. Livermore called these risks the unknown and the unknowable. Whether in physical or in the paper game, such a great percentage in one place should be hedged, at least partially. Play the game as if you are trying NOT to lose rather than that you are trying to win. If you can master that, the profits will come. Also, I find the precious metals markets much more difficult and unpredictable than most. I attribute this to their political, monetary and statistically unreliable nature. They are a great puzzle! But, if your primary motive is to gain through trading, try the grain markets, they're much easier, that is, they have discernable supplies and demand, some weather risks and react logically more often.

If you view gold primarily as a money making investment, I might suggest that other opportunities also exist. I find commodity volatility a trading asset and have been having a good time lately. I care not whether I trade long or short but I do believe that gold is in a long term uptrend and will remain so probably for the rest of my lifetime. Trying to pick either long term or short term tops or bottoms in any market is extremely difficult (and usually not profitable). Sometimes even making money knowing the long term trend is difficult! This is why many are far wiser to simply buy the physical as far as metals are concerned. Wishing that, hoping that or even knowing that the POG is going higher and making money by that move are two entirely different operations. The necessary knowledge acquired to know and then the implimentation of a successful trade are two separate operations requiring different skills (and luck!).

Most everyone knows my thoughts on silver. With that as prelude, I can safely add that patience is also required. I hope this is of some help. I often feel exactly the same sense of frustration that your words communicated, you are certainly not alone. Sometimes chicken, and sometimes feathers.
Rich

On silver you wrote, "I know I'm missing something in that market."

When you discover what it is, please tell me!

Butler and others have cried "manipulation" and decided to blame the derivatives markets for silver's low price. Sophisticated derivatives (puts, calls, the whole mess) were traded in the coffee houses of England back in the days when the fastest ships were wind powered and the hot stock was the East India Co. That there are contracts for more of the commodity than exists is not uncommon in silver or many other markets.

Having to find some resolution to the ever declining
remaining visable supply and the fact that it appears to be reaching a critical level, I've decided to conclude that the silver market trades in the complete absence of any fundamental considerations. I don't believe this to be as preposterous as it first appears. Many markets are only moved by fundamental when these numbers shock the market (as soybeans did this year). When has silver ever HAD to consider not enough silver? When was price rationing last needed? Why then should it? Silver, like all markets, feels no obligation whatsoever, to react according to any forces other than investor sentiment which may be astute or totally insane. One day this sentiment will change and, perhaps the ignored supply/demand situation is now so far out of kilter that the market will be forced to react violently. I believe so, so I wait.
Thoughts?
Rich

An ad in the back of an outdoors magazine caught my attention today. The ad stated that no silver eagles would be minted after 2003. Anyone know more about this?

About post 111274, yes sir, and well said!

http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A42256DD30057E114?OpenDocumentHere is a snip from this interesting article:

"In the history of tax rebellions, poor people generally stay aloof. They die in swarms, but usually from disease, not from protest. Those who are prepared to fight for fiscal justice � attacking either the king or his noblemen � usually come from the small property classes, either well-off farmers, or tradesmen, artisans and small business owners. They aren't so poor they don't pay any tax. Nor are they wealthy enough to buy their way into the exemptions of the aristocracy. So they are the meat in the fiscal sandwich. When kings fear for their lives, these are the people who pay for his peace of mind. But their potential for disloyalty is always on his mind. The development of European bureaucracy, with all its record-keeping, inspectors, and sanctions, is the evolution of squeezing the meat in the sandwich to the limit.

The current conflict between President Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs is unique, because for the first time in Russian history, it is the king who is trying to dismantle the tax exemptions. He is doing that without any show of support from the small business groups who stand to benefit most. They are too afraid of Putin's weakness, and of the oligarchs� vindictiveness, to take his side, at least for now. Those who ought to be their natural representatives, deputies of the Duma Tax Committee, are hirelings of the oligarchs. Yevgeny Primakov at the Chamber of Commerce, and Arkady Volsky at the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs ought to speak for them, but they don't dare to raise their voices either.

What Mikhail Khodorkovsky has done by trying to sell a 40% stake of the oil company Yukos to ExxonMobil is nothing less than cashing out the capital gain on all the Yeltsin dispensations from which he benefitted, before next March. The timing is short and the method desperate, because Khodorkovsky and his fellow oligarchs are certain that Putin will introduce the necessary taxes to redistribute the wealth in the realm, once he is reelected."

comment;
Putin once seemed to be going along with the Bush US agenda but now is clearly going in a different direction. Since the Iraqi invasion he has started to rearrange Soviet oil policy as evidenced by meetings with the Saudis, talking Euro vs. $US and now stomping on Khodorkovsky for trying to sell Russian oil assets to US companies. This is another nail in the $US coffin.

Boilermaker

Thanks for all the positive (and negative) criticism today. I have finished Bill Bonner's wonderful book and now I am ready to put my money where my BIG FAT mouth is!

Bill Bonner's latest book "Financial Reckoning Day" is awesome. He winds it up and winds it up through 273 pages and then hits the home run in the last 3 pages. Without spoiling the show, his last 2 mini-chapters are called, "The Trade of the Decade" & "How to Relax and Enjoy the End of the World". I would love to quote and paraphrase the man but that would be too much fun!!!!

Go buy the book!

So without further adieu I must say good-bye, see you in 2010 and in departing I leave a baby-baby tidbit from Bill, "...paper money will not continue to outperform the real thing -gold- forever..."

Ha ha! Thanks Bill!

Gold, get you some and paper, get you none! See ya in paradise.

love & luck,

sc

I missed the last price-guessing deal, but always intended to mention the thing which I am most uncompfortable with vis-a-vis my gold ownership today and into th future:

I sense that relatively few people in the US currently own gold, though I suspect that it is significantly more common amoung the more wealthy. I do buy right into the proposal that 'paper' wealth is a construct that provides a mechanism for a handfull of people to control the masses, and physical gold ownership on the part of individuals throws a monkey wrench into the works. For that reason, I am concerened that as the need for control increases, and more regular people see gold as a way to preserve wealth, means of managing the threat will be forthcomming. I could imagine it taking the form of excessive taxes on transfers and that sort of thing...or worse. So, what scares me? Since relatively few people will have much to lose, and since they may be unhappy about other problems (like job loss and decreased purchasing power) and on the lookout for scapegoats, I could imagine significant popular support for legislation which makes life less pleasant for those who hold physical gold.

As for the more political posts, they don't bother me personally though there are a wide range of forums and newsgroups which are dedicated to such discussions and it is to them that I go when I'm interested in that topic. I do believe that most of the political posts I've seen on this forum tie closely to the topic of gold ownership through a chain such as:

poor political decisions ->
more economic enemies/fewer economic allies ->
economy fails/gold ownership worthwhile.

BTW, I had zero interest in gold until several months before the war, and it was my lack of confidence in the political leadership which sparked my interest. Today I have only enough dollars to take care of the next 6 months or so of projects and the rest is in physical gold. If nothing else, at least I sleep soundly at night :)

About 2003 silver eagles :
I just bought some silver eagles (2003's); and
I heard that as well, from my father, who read it on a web site. He didn't recall exactly where though.

Why would the US govt just stop making them? Anyone have any theories on that?

Silver stock investors must protect their investments by selling silver stocks that go up, and buying physical silver with some of the gains. If silver stocks get overvalued, like Hecla mining, you would be better off owning real silver. I strongly recommend that you put and keep at least 20% of your portfolio in physical silver.

What is the point of owning physical silver if certain silver stocks will appreciate and go up in value much faster than silver? The point is that silver is liquid. Silver is payment in full. Silver is not a promise. There are many inherent risks in owning stocks. Stocks can go bankrupt by debt or lack of financing or bad management. And if they do get financing, your share of the company is reduced as they issue more shares. The value of silver can never go to zero.

With the liquidity of owning real silver, you can be more brave and balance out the remainder of your portfolio with the less liquid smaller market cap silver stocks with greater potential. I strongly recommend holding 20% of your portfolio in physical silver, and increasing that percentage as the silver stocks move up, so you are continually or periodically selling some silver stocks for physical silver. This is called "profit taking".

Never borrow money to buy silver stocks. The price swings can bankrupt you. Avoid debt, and you will avoid the problems that destroyed the Hunt Brothers.

I don't think the lack of liquidity of the silver stocks is too much of a concern at the moment. I don't think there will be any need to sell them any time soon. There is not a need to "exit" owning silver stocks. There is a need to "exit" owning bonds and dollars, and where will they go to exit that? They will invest here, in gold and silver, and in the gold and silver stocks.

Why is the liquidity of physical silver important? Various reasons. It is "out of the system". It appreciates tax-free. They can't know or track when you bought it, so they can't levy capital gains on it when you sell it. You can transfer silver across generations, tax free, again because it is out of the system.

With physical silver in hand, when paper cash goes up in smoke, you will have money for food and fuel and life's necessities. Don't store your silver in the bank. Get a home safe, and a gun, and maybe dogs, or other home security and privacy measures.

Silver stock owners may need physical silver for the final round of private placements to move a silver property holding company into production--after paper money exists no more. If the current silver stock investors have no silver (no money) then they are at the mercy of the owners of physical silver (and gold) that may be the only money left after a monetary collapse.

I strongly suspect that a silver investor will not part with his silver to invest in a high priced asset like an over valued silver explorer to help with the final round of financing. A silver investor today is a seeker of low value. Therefore, if you are invested strictly in silver stocks, the day might come when your silver stock is over valued, but nobody is able to finance the final stage of development because there is no money (after a dollar crash) and no silver investor ready to part with his silver. So, keep that in mind, and buy physical silver along with the low priced silver stocks today.

What are the benefits and drawbacks of various kinds of physical metal?

1000 oz. silver COMEX bar: The benefit is it is a "good delivery" bar for industrial use, and that this is among the cheapest way to buy silver if you stand for delivery of a futures contract--you'll get five of them. The other benefit is that the bar will not need to be "refined" when selling it, because it already is .999 fine. The drawback is the futures contract may default, and you might get nothing or a "cash settlement" while waiting. But you can also buy them direct and pay about a 3% commission. This is what Ted Butler moans about that silver investors face either premiums or delays, or defaults. Another drawback is you have to ship it from New York, and then back again. Shipping out costs 3%. It will be a much less percentage to ship it back after the price goes up! I have heard that the "assay" fee that they will attempt to scare you about if you remove the bars from the exchanges can be free at some depositories. The other drawback is they weigh just under 70 pounds each. You have to be strong or find someone who is strong to carry them. And few carriers will ship them. Another drawback is the assay for your self. How can you tell they didn't rip you off? The final drawback is the bars are ugly with big pits or dents in them.

100 oz. silver bars: The benefit is they look nice and are convenient to carry and count, weighing about 7 lbs each. And no "coin counting" which is convenient. Another benefit is that they should "ring test" quite easily. Bang with a wooded mallet, and you should hear a nice ring. Lead won't ring. The drawback is they usually cost 10% above the spot price. Another drawback is that if silver rises in value to very high prices, these bars will be worth a lot, and will be unable to be used to buy every day items. Imagine $250/oz silver x 100 oz. It would be like a $25,000 value. Not very useful for typical commerce. You might use one to buy a house if home values collapse, I suppose, or a nice car. So it's a liquid investment, but not useful for every day liquidity like buying food or gas. (But neither is stock.)

Silver US Eagles: These are not "bullion" because the price is so much more
expensive over the silver price, usually about $1.50 extra over the spot price at the cheapest. But they look nice and are .999 fine.

Silver "rounds". These are private mint one ounce coins .999 fine. Much cheaper than Eagles, but still might cost about 10% above the spot bullion price.

US coin 1964 or earlier, called "90% junk silver": The benefit is the coins are very recognizable and divisible into small units. Also, you can usually buy them very close to the spot price, so this is among the cheapest silver you can buy, if not the 1000 oz. bars. The drawback is you have to count them, or the dealer has to--but they don't charge for that.

Reports are that in January 1980, in the height of the silver spike, you could not get a good price when selling 90% silver because the refineries were backed up, and it might be months before they would pay out. But you also could not get a good price for a COMEX bar, because COMEX was closed to all new contracts, it was "liquidation only". So there was no place to quickly trade.

I'm not worried about those concerns, because I don't think you will ever have to quickly trade out of silver. I don't believe we will have "the spike up" like last time. I agree with Ted Butler that the silver shortage will not be quickly or easily filled, especially not when monetary demand comes back into the picture. I think we will have at least a generation of very high silver prices. An entire generation around the world who will swear they will never be deceived by the fraud of paper money again. This will be a generation of unprecedented prosperity and peace for all. Frauds and debts will be wiped out, and people will be free economically, and will be more able to make rational economic calculations in business and trading. Gold, silver, and honest exchange encourages trade, which increases specialization, boosts production, and thus increases the standards of living for everyone. The rise of the price of precious metals is not "bad for the economy" as they always tell us. That's a lie. Precious metals are good for the economy.

You will need physical metal for trading. Without it, you are "broke" and have nothing, and your portfolio is not properly and safely diversified.

You could lose your home without physical metal. In a severe economic pinch and monetary crash, physical metal could dry up and be completely unavailable, even if you sold stock. It might take some time for the markets to resume again. Before 1914, the Stock Exchange in New York was closed for 6 months. That could happen again. And how would you sell your silver stocks for food during that time? You couldn't! What if the stock markets closed, paper burned completely, the banks closed, and to survive, the government levied a tax on homes payable only in precious metal? That's the pattern of history. Homes and food would be available only to those who had precious metal. Large landowners with no metal could go bust and be on the streets with nothing.

You must have physical metal, and take profits in physical metal, and have the means to physically defend your wealth. Liquidity of precious metal is life.

I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.

Some say that gold is only a preserver of wealth, and nothing else. I say that gold is whatever you can manage
to make of it.

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

We invite you to visit now and visit often for updates on the news & views affecting the gold market.

Sir Boilermaker,
In your good Russian issue post, the religious issue didnt come up. May I mention it.
The Russians, as reported in the Financial Times ( I believe), see lots of Jews leaving Russia in a steady stream for years. They are viewed as not really Russians but temporary citizens. According to the report, most of the Oligarchs(sp), are Jewish.
Russians are resentful. 8 billion for that guy, most Russians are dirt poor.

Sir Misetich, the complainers have a bit of a point, in one of your posts you did the American liberal media proud.
Not all of us see it as Time or Newsweek wants us to.

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmSnippet:

Nov 4: We are at a price spike that has never been seen before, the highest-rate market of all time. It has caused a total disruption in the way that ships are being positioned. - Tom Cutler, a shipping analyst for Clarksons

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad - Euripides

"Choose the form of the Destructor" intoned Gozer the Gozerian as the climax of the film Ghostbusters unfolded on the screen. I remember the film well from my college days, to the point where I can ruin the film for those who haven't seen it by beating the characters to their lines, which suggests that I spent a few too many hours in front of the boob tube then the library during my education. Little did I realize at the time that Euripides' words might have informed this facetious view of NY as a modern day Babylon. As funny as you might find the film, the "choose the form of the destructor" metaphor might have other than humorous merit.

The early Greek Philosopher Heraclitus is famed for his doctrine of flux, captured in the following; On those stepping into the rivers staying the same other and other waters flow. While many Philosophers including Plato and Aristotle took issue with his view as a doctrine of metaphysics, there is a sense in which Heraclitus' view can be illuminating. Replacing the river with the United States leads us to contemplate that while some see continuity the underlying reality of the nation, and every other nation, is constantly in flux. Populations change in quantity and quality, territory controlled expands and contracts, economic models are used and discarded, resources are controlled by different groups and modes of political control wax and wane. Yet, many think of the US as a continuous entity.

It is to the internal process of change, like the ever changing water by which a river is comprised that I would like to draw your attention today. How is it that this change tends to occur? While adherents to the heroic variant of humanism tends to focus on the virtues of the "new boss" I find it more instructive to examine the errors of the "old boss." Certainly there have been times in the past where new regimes have proven far less capable than those which preceded them, yet still the mandate of heaven, as the Chinese refer to the phenomenon, passes from group to group.

While one can simply argue that the old gang who lost control "got it wrong," I tend to think that it isn't solely error which dooms regimes but error which flows from rising sophistication, in the Greek sense. Did the Nixon gang get booted because they countenanced a break-in at Watergate or was it the choice to impose economic controls on the country, denying the previous faith in free markets and hard money? That is, did the Nixon team choose the form of their destructor when the closed the gold window and imposed wage and price controls? Did the LBJ team recognize their loss of the mandate of heaven when the truth of Vietnam became too obvious to ignore? Moving back in history, did the Catholic Church begin to lose its mandate in denying the heliocentric view of Copernicus and Galileo?

It is well said, I believe, that trust is hard won but easily lost, a maxim the mutual fund industry of the US may be about to learn the hard way. It is also said that you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people, all of the time. This is to argue that eventually the truth will come out. Regimes which try to stop that process tend to implode on their denial of reality as efforts to obfuscate the truth eventually destroys their lever of control, trust, while regimes which accept the new reality tend to survive to fight another day.

As today is election day in the US, thoughts of regime change seem, to me anyway, appropriate, although perhaps not in the sense implied by the electoral process. In my view, a change in regime involves not just a change in person(s) in charge but a change in the spirits which animate them. It is, within this frame of mind, only in hindsight that one can note the change. Many, including myself, were hopeful that the Bush team's win in 2000 might inspire such a change but in retrospect, at least within the economic sphere, the policies remain largely the same.

This view would be vigorously debated by many, including Paul Krugman. I am often saddened to read Krugman as I find his bias to one side of the political spectrum in the US distorts what is to me a remarkable ability to articulate the economic issues du jour. Perhaps Heraclitus' unity of opposites might be of help to Mr. Krugman is discerning that what might seem opposing forces might be identical forces with different names.

In that regard, the small changes in marginal tax rates and choice of collectives to protect or punish which seem to denote the differences between Democrat and Republican might be seen from a broader perspective. Should we have income tax? Can the state organize society in a more durable fashion that people might organize themselves? Should the US impose its world view on other nations? Should the US find itself in yet another down cycle, the irony of the hours of debate spent on, for example, this or that marginal tax rate for this or that demographic, when the size of government or choice of monetary standard was the problem will be rich.

So, which form will the Destructor take? It depends in part on which lie the gang in charge chooses to hang their reputation. Regardless of the level of the stockmarket, further increases in the Iraqi/Afghani death toll will erode public support in the face of administration claims to the contrary. Regardless of the level of reported GDP, rising inflation and unemployment will put the lie to claims that the economy is improving. Regardless of the inevitability rhetoric of globalization adherents, rising transport costs AND rising unemployment in both exporter and importer, such as is happening now on both sides of the Pacific, will expose their misconceptions.

So we wait for the catalyst to emerge. While we wait let's close with the Ghostbusters version of the impotence of rulers to the forces of nature lesson of King Canute.
Ray Stanz: Gozer the Gozerian: good evening. As a duly designated representative of the City, County and State of New York, I order you to cease any and all supernatural activities and return forthwith to your place of origin or to the nearest convenient parallel dimension.
Dr. Peter Venkman: That ought to do it, thanks very much Ray.


Druid: It's probably my shortcomings but I can't seem to separate political thought from economic thought. Would not "free gold" be a solution? Maybe not "thee" solution but a step closer in the right direction.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Now wait for SPOT to catchup !
<;-)

How amusing,

snippet
The European Union has pledged its 7,000 listed firms will start using the upcoming bookkeeping rules from 2005 in a bid to improve the quality of financial reporting and prevent scandals such as Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and Ahold (Amsterdam:AHLN.AS - News).

The National Hockey League has agreed with its member teams on a list of new rules for 2005 season to enhance the flow and speed of the game and improve the viewing quality for the public.

Accounting is not a game and is based on the pure science of mathematics. Lucas Paciuoli the 15th century mathematics professor developed the basis of "Double-entry Book-keeping"
and since the early 20th century we insist on changing the rules.

Changing the rules will not improve anything, only to continue to mask the truth.

Maudlin;
"Today, there are 30 pension-eligible elders in the developed world for every 100 working age adults. By the year 2040, there will be 70. In Italy, Japan, and Spain, the fastest-aging countries, there will be 100. In other words, there will be as many retirees as workers. This rising old-age dependency ratio will translate into a sharply rising costs for pay-as-you-go retirement programs - and a heavy burden on the budget, on the economy, and on working age adults in any country that does not take serious steps to prepare... public benefits to the elderly will reach an average of 25% of GDP in the developed countries by 2040, double today's level."
"... In Japan, they will reach 27% of GDP; in France, they will reach 29%; and in Italy and Spain, they will exceed 30%. This growth will throw into question the sustainability of today's retirement systems - and indeed, society's very ability to provide a decent standard of living for the old without overburdening the young.... It is unclear whether they can change course without economic and social turmoil. (emphasis mine)
"For most of history, the elderly - here defined as adults aged 60 and over - comprised only a tiny fraction of the population, never more than five percent in any country. Today in the developed countries, they comprise 20 percent. Forty years from now, the share will reach roughly 35 percent. And that's just the average. In Japan and some of the fast-aging countries of continental Europe, where the median age is expected to exceed 50, the share will be approaching 50 percent."

How do you pay for such increases? If the increase were paid for entirely by tax hikes, not one European country would pay less than 50% of its GDP in taxes, and France would be at 62%. By comparison, the US tax share of GDP would rise from 33% to 44% (I assume this includes all level of taxes). Japan's taxes would be 46% of GDP.

It should be clear to everyone that such an outcome would be an utter economic disaster. Taxes for the working population would be consuming 80-90-% of their income. It would be an economic death spiral. Whatever economic growth might be possible in an aging US, Europe or Japan will be completely squelched by such high taxes. The "giant whooshing sound" would be that of young workers leaving for more favorable working and tax conditions.

If the increase in benefit costs were paid for entirely in cuts to other spending projects, Japan would see its public benefits rise to 66% of total public spending, France and the US to 53% and Germany to 49%. Today, these expenditures are all around 31%. What do you cut? In the US, you might cut defense spending, but there is little to cut in Europe and Japan. Education? Welfare? Parks? Transportation? Medicare or health programs for the working? It gets so very ugly. Since such an outcome (50% of GDP for pensions) is impossible, long before that type of debacle is reached, other solutions, painful as they are, will have to be chosen.

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 01 38,117�c plus2535�c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764�c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758�c plus1405�c...383.7 <---normal-short
Oct. 06 53,796�c plus15038�c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706�c plus4910�c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629�c plus5923�c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981�c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291�c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993�c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838�c plus4293�c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542�c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053�c plus1757�c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108�c plus2055�c...387.0
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934�c...384.4
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319�c...377.1
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649�c...380.0 <---wrong-short

D-ANI: COMEX gold is accumulating a break-out energy through $400 level. Commercial-sellers desperately try to sell-off Dec.-gold. If their strategy is reasonable, no rebounds are happening. Desperately miserable short-positions of commercials will be accumulated until a LAST-Day.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SA1203Wonder whether this is the reason for the POG firm recovery above $380.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21.=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10Cash$ is looking good from here given the refusal of Bonds to sell off, DX100 anyone?

Hi silver,
Just retraced and noticed your intention to retire, you'll be sorely missed... and happy "collecting" - remember...

...It isn't about Gold ........"YET"

Silvester/ industrial Gold:

I can't document the source, but I read somewhere that the US government had been consuming its silver stockpile during previous years' production of silver eagles and was having to buy silver on the open market for at least the last part of this year's production. If you twist your thinking into a mindset where the cost of the minting process was all you've had to pay in previous years for the privilege of swapping an anachronistic metal for valuable pieces of green confetti, then maybe it makes sense to stop the minting after you get to the point where you would first have to tie up some of your cherished green confetti to be able to mint the coins.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A477-2003Nov4.htmlSnip:

The uncompromising language of EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy raised the prospects of a politically and economically painful trade war during a U.S. presidential campaign. And it seemed to have left the Republican-controlled Congress and White House with an unsavory choice: take action now that could harm the vulnerable steel industry and other manufacturers or risk sanctions that could be even more uncomfortable closer to the 2004 election.

"If the U.S. does not move, retaliation is a racing certainty," Lamy said yesterday in a speech before the European Institute, a research group devoted to transatlantic issues.

At issue are two separate trade disputes, steel and export subsidies.
....................
We're looking at an unnecessary escalation" in the trade dispute, Levin said after meeting with Lamy. "It would be a serious mistake to let European pressure shape American law."
.....................
"The retaliatory threat is real, and the cost would be severe," said Calman J. Cohen, president of the Emergency Committee for American Trade, a group backed by large exporters such as Caterpillar Inc., John Deere & Co. and Cargill Inc.
*****************
Misetich

This has been ongoing saga for some time. The inherent message is EU is competing with US at all levels.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/nov2003/nf2003115_3906_db035.htmSnip:

The net result could also mean fatter inventories. Less-then-stellar October sales left Detroit with roughly 3 million unsold vehicles in inventory -- 7% above October, 2002, and 7.2% above September, 2003, levels, according to Ward's Automotive Reports. Lapidus expects the Big Three to end the year with an average of 82-days supply of vehicles -- 26% higher than normal. That's based on the auto makers' current fourth-quarter production plans and expectations that sales will return to September's levels for the rest of the year.
***********
Misetich

Growth has been reported recently in the manufacturing industry - the higher levels of atuo inventory indicates manufacturing is in for a tough slug ahead

The much expected economic recovery may be not as the SM have priced in -

GOLD investments demand usually goes higher as SM heads unexpectadly downward

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031104/financial_insiders_1.htmlReuters
Insider buying of company stock slows in October
Tuesday November 4, 5:30 pm ET
By Chelsea Emery


NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Corporate big wigs bought just $52 million worth of their own companies' stock in October, a third of the average, in a sign they may be wary about the economic and stock-market recovery, Wall Street traders said on Tuesday.



Insiders usually buy about $173 million of stock monthly, according to data compiled by market research group Thomson Financial. But October was the fifth-straight month executives' purchases have fallen below the $100 million mark, Thomson said.

Insiders are holding back at the same time the stock market and economy have surged ahead. Blue-chip stocks closed at a 17-month high on Monday and gross domestic product, a measure of economic growth, rose at an annual 7.2 percent rate in the third quarter -- the fastest pace in almost two decades.

"The smart money bought early and it isn't chasing (investments) now," said David Briggs, head of global equity trading at investment firm Federated Investors. "The rate of change is slowing and it's going to be more stubborn from here."

The stock market's sharp rise and fears that the economy may not be as strong as currently believed is holding insiders back, traders said.

"Insiders tend to be the smartest slice of the pie and they're telling you there's no free lunch," said Mike Clark, Credit Suisse First Boston's global head of proprietary trading. "People are extrapolating the growth we've seen over the past year and worrying that it's front ended. We're in a prove-it stage."

An insider selling-to-buying ratio climbed to $59 worth of stock sold in October for every $1 bought -- the highest level in at least a decade, said Thomson. A ratio about $20 indicates bearish sentiment.

"The selling (of company stocks) is about normal -- right in line with five-year averages," said Lon Gerber, director of insider research for Thomson. "But executives are not buying shares. Maybe it's a valuation concern."

In addition, he said, the outlook for the future remains cloudy. "When they have more confidence that this economic recovery will translate to their financials, maybe then they'll step in."

Company insider buying is a good indicator of the direction of the stock market's future, Thomson said.

The ratio of selling to buying has climbed above $20 on only 14 occasions. Six months later, the Standard & Poor's index (CBOE:^SPX - News) has fallen 10 of the 14 times, according to Thomson's Gerber.

"It's a great leading indicator," he said.


Comment: Insider buying and selling is the best indicator of how the market should go.

Buying-Low, Selling-High,

Guess insiders have given a new twist to the "investor motto".

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2003/tst110303.htmSnippet
China exports many products into the United States, which makes her a convenient scapegoat for our economic problems. Demanding that China adjust its currency valuation is merely a distraction from addressing the real economic dilemmas facing our country, however. Congress should be focused on our own disastrous monetary policies. As long as the Fed can print money at will and set interest rates, the value of our dollars will be subject to the whims of politicians and the perceived economic needs of politically powerful special interests.
---------------------------------
I don't see a significant difference between Democrats and Republicans, however we do have two clearly distinct political philosphies in Washington D.C., Ron Paul and everyone else.

Best Wishes

Can someone please explain how intoducing new rules, can improve what is supposed to be a function of mathematics?

The role that mathematics plays in business accounting is
kind of like the role that the alphabet plays in eating
out. There is at times a difference between what you read
on the menu and what is delivered to your table. When too
much of this goes on, you tend to stay home. But printing
is primarily a means by which the cook is relieved from
having to shout from the kitchen what's cooking, and what
it costs, though in some restaurants they do both, just to
make sure people know. Mathematics takes the same function
in business accounting, that the alphabet takes in dining
out, to at least ostensibly present to others what the
main actors of a particular business are doing, or think
they are doing, or claim they are doing, which are not
always the same thing. The alphabet is just as subject to
misrepresentation as men are capable of making it, and
this is also true of mathematics. For instance, they say
that one plus one equals two. But this is not precisely
comprehensible if you add one drop of water to another
drop of water. What you might get is one drop of water.
Thus, one plus one can equal one, in a slightly tortured,
but very real, sense. Also, if you subtract yourself from
in front of a mirror, two becomes zero. So two minus one
can equal zero. This is not my fault. Further, if you
subtract one cloud from one cloud, you can end up with two
clouds. Therefore one minus one can equal two. Usually
this is called division, but that is a function of
linguistics, not math. Of course mathematics is a branch
of semantics, but just trying telling that to a math
teacher. Better stick with gold. One Krugerrand plus one
krugerrand equals two krugerrands. That can be relied on.
But now, if you only write down that you have one of them,
that isn't mathematics. That's accounting.

I love this line!

"I don't see a significant difference between Democrats and Republicans, however we do have two clearly distinct political philosphies in Washington D.C., Ron Paul and everyone else." And how true, but sad.

Good one Liberty Head.

Omegaman

Back in 2000, policy makers decided to prick the bubble and bring the economy into a soft landing mode. No
question the economy was overheating and at dangerous levels. Policy makers attempted to bring the
rate of growth back down to 3-4%. They inverted the yield curve and the slowdown came.

By mid 2001, we fell into recession, and on the cusp of that, came a terrorist attack like no other.

The immediate reaction was to start propping up the economy with tax cuts, lower interest rates, and massive
government spending programs, most of which was directly aimed at fighting terrorism on foreign lands. They reversed the inversion in the yield curve dropping short term rates from 6.5% to 1%. These efforts led to a bottom in the stock market by the fall of 2002. That bottom was tested this spring.

Ignored in all of this was the value of the USD. It was never addressed, and belated so. Most fought any effort
to bring it down during the recession.

The blunder of the policy makers?

They should have let the dollar drop hard and fast before applying any stimulus to the US economy. As it stands
now the dollar is 30-40% overvalued, and the economic stimulus is being exported to foreign countries.

This was not only a blunder, it was mass stupidity.

In other words sir, " A slight of hand" or "The proverbial shell game", designed by accountants as a means of winning the "pecker contest" over the external auditors.

All of which would become totally irrelevant if companies were not required to pre-pay the taxes, that ultimately come from the end user.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

1. Spot is extremely frisky in the face of a leaden Euro. Low volumes on gold stocks suggests that market isn't convinced of the strength of the rally in gold. We still need a decisive move in the currencies off support (e.g. Euro through 1.1575) in order to cement this POG rally into place. It will come, but gold may have some more thrashing around 380 to do.

2. NEM's decision to dust off its shelf reg is highly significant. We all know that due to the industry-wide lack of R&D spending, the only way for the big miners to grow earnings is through M&A (Think about this - it means that Wall Street's paper financed flying takeover circus can be brought out of storage).

The miners that know how to play this game (and no-one plays it better than NEM) have no doubt worked out that they have a few years of virtuous circling ahead, i.e. a) buy something with cash, b) consolidate earnings, c) let the rising gold price expand your multiple, d) buy something else, only this time do it with shares, e) repeat until 6 months before the gold price peaks. Note that while the gold price is rising, money will be thrown at this market with abandon because it will be one of the few sectors with stocks that can expand both margins and sales volumes. Indeed, one of my predictions is that most investors will not buy gold stocks because they produce gold, but because they are generating enormous earnings growth in dollars (Sad, isn't it, but never look a gift horse in the mouth).

NEM is signalling to the market that the scramble for takeover candidates is about to begin.

You say: "All of which would become totally irrelevant if
companies were not required to pre-pay the taxes, that
ultimately come from the end user."

Taxation does provide some with an incentive to
misrepresent. But for those to whom misreprenting is
an acceptable way to do business, it is not the only
incentive.

Sir I agree. But the taxation manipulation is by far the easiest and largest slice of the pie.

I don't have enough data to form a conclusion. But you
may be right.

at goldseek.com

Inflation and Deflation during Hyperinflation:

snippet:

.........So then, if M3 shrinks in value to be equal to the gold held by the U.S. government, and if it takes ten years for this to happen, and if the number of dollars triples in those ten years as M3 tripled as happened in the 1970's, here's what the gold price would be: M3 $8,800 billion in 2003 times three to $26,400 billion M3 in 2013 / 0.261 billion oz. gold = $ 101,149/oz. Yes, gold, in a decade from now, could be worth over a hundred thousand dollars per ounce all due mostly to prior inflation of the money supply finally showing up, and the deflation in value of the money supply back to real levels............

Comment:

Of course if this occurs, a loaf of bread will probably cost $50 dollars, but it's at least fun to think of the numbers........until you understand the utter devastation it's going to cause society.

I attended a lecture last night by an economics proffessor at the university last night.This prof. is chinese and from mainland china.He talked about trade about dollar to rmb ration.It looked to me like the only thing china buys from the U.S. is high tech and big ticket items such as planes and such.What I came away with was even if china revalued their currency downward they would still produce goods much cheaper than us,maybe better for us if they devalued so we could get more yuan for what we do sell them.The proffessor also spoke about rising living standard the huge increase in raw material imports by china.The chinese are producing huge amounts of steel but they still need to import it same with cement.The chinese seem to be practicing mercantalism on a huge scale and giving the west a taste of revenge for earlier affronts to their nation.A remark he also made was,china sends the U.S. valuable finished goods and gets paper in return.21

EU Business - 35 minutes ago
Italy announced Wednesday it is granting 720 million euros (823 million dollars) to Russia to help it destroy its huge chemical weapons arsenal and safely dispose of its Soviet-era nuclear submarines.

On the P&F chart no moon shot yet, in fact it looks more like a freight train shunting in a country railyard at the moment, however that Gold Express will be coming through soon but will it be heading north or south. My betting is for a major move north before Christmas. Shalom.

The IMF convened a monetary summit in Jamaica : The "accords" formally recognized the managed "floating currency system" for the duration.

GOLD WAS DEMONETIZED AS A RESERVE ASSET !!!

What does this meant then... and NOW :

Gold was NO longer "backing" the currencies as it did in the old gold exchange system. Gold would remain a "RESERVE ASSET" ! Reconfirmed by Duisenberg at the birth of the euro. Gold a non-currency (demonetized) and a "REAL WEALTH" *RESERVE ASSET" .

The following goldrush (1980-850$) was the wholesale scramble by huge dollar holders, trying to buy some of those "Reserve Assets" (in 400 ounce bars) before it's price went sky high. The real reason for the managed rise was to demonstrate to oil producers and other dollar holders that NOT EVERYONE could convert,... if they bought all at once !

I do remember that goldrush very well. But never understood what happened after POG's 1980 ATH. Banks in Euroland advised not to buy physical Gold anymore, when POG started to decline, and started guiding those exited goldbugs into paper-gold ! There even was a period where 1% VAT was imposed on Physical as to enforce you towards the paper-substitute, that didn't carry that VAT frightener.
When later on, the goldfever went down, VAT was abolished and banks did not advised the paper-gold-stuff anymore.

Now I do understand what happened and why it happened. You can read (reread) the full explanation in Archive I of FOA walks the Gold Trail. The engineering of the gold market !

In the early 90s, some major players began to stop trading paper-gold and started slowly buying Physical. They remembered the real meaning of those Jamaica Accords.

1991 : The Maastricht Treaty - EMU. The euro was born.

The two major power blocks ($-�) no longer shared the purpose of maintaining a paper gold market...it's price damping effects were no longer needed !

1999 : WAG told the world that the euro was backing out of the paper gold game. The dollar could now go as high or as low as world traders would like to take this now * ON IT'S OWN * dollar-currency !!!

The Jamaica Accords are to be understood as a clear signal that there is a permanent shift from holding Gold (Wealth Reserve Asset) and fiat-currencies in "competition" with each other. Let this very fundamental meaning, sink deeply in, dear forumers. The good effects of this "shift" will materialize at the appropiate time.

Bullion, representing the value of the world's assets and productive wealth as FREEGOLD trading as a Reserve Asset.

At present the euro-float is growing. The oil for euro must make this euro-float big and robust enough as to be able to receive/absorb a massive dumping of un-needed dollars .
It is this process that we are watching at present. All those un-needed dollars (still growing) simply wait up until they are replaced/compensated with the GOLD WEALTH RESERVE ASSET, that has been accumulated (redistributed to) by all those who have those un-needed dollars and shift to the application of the Jamaica Accords, at last.

Arabian oil and Euroland were the first ones with rising amounts of un-needed dollars in their reserves.
China (+ satelites) and now Russia, came somewhat later to join the dollar collection. The above is surely explaining why these latecomers (China/Russia) are given some time to accumulate Gold, the wealth reserve asset !!!

Correct me, where I have it wrong, please.

what is ecoism.

like any other ism it is an theory or a practice.

what is the theory behind ecoism.

ecoism is the effects of the causes that are making gold go up.

these effects percolate all the way thru the social fabric here on planet earth.

from nationa banks down to the person who has no money(gold)

every individual will practice some form of ecoism for ecoism is about individual responsibility for there wealth.

some may think that that is allready occuring but it isnt. most people leave the drivng to others , just merrily going along for the ride untill they are abrubtly kicked out of the car with nothing.

the movement ecoism just an idea that one individual thought of (idea ) and who is seeking either validation or repuditation of that idea.
cause it sure seems to me that something is up on this planet regarding monetary policy regarding the medium of exchange we call money and the effect of that money/currency upon ones person/family/business/ national wealth.
Ecoism is a growing awareness by the masses world wide that yes somethig is afoot. especially since most large media centers in North America simply ignore the unfolding mini series happening in the gold/currency/oil war.
This awareness is rekindeling many long forgotten desires to accumulate something tangible , for ones time/efforts/productive endevors. which happens to be gold since it has been serving humanity for 5,000 years

Ecoism is simple yet complex. It resembles the gold market, where on the surface it seems simple one price for gold but then there are all the subtle and not so subtle influences on the ppog(physical price of gold) which make it dynamic and fluid.
Same with ecoism it seems so simpple , an idea where individuals world wide are becoming interested in a passive assett/commodity that retanis its value ie storing wealth that can retains its prchasing power.
But it to has its complexities as each individual interprets the world according to there acculturation and therfore acts a lil different than the other fellow in regards to there commitment to ecoism.
yet similarily they realize something is affot and are acting acordingly.
this action leads then to a greater understanding of how the finances of the world work. making them more informed and able to accuratly seperate the wheat from the chaff. Although at first it seems that ecoites where shunned for there attempt to inform the planet of the percieved change taking place . Lately, it seems many more are starting to echo the ecoites remarks pole to pole. This in turn is helping to refine the idea and spread it out further for inspection both introspeculativly and extraspeculativly. For it is only thru refing new ides that we continual to evolve and seek out and find the truth of the universe.
Ecoism is about being practicle, reliable, honest and haveing something called integrity.
those are the planks of the golden foundation of ecoism. those traits that we look for in others must come from ourself. ecoism alive and evolving yet.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people.

That is my interpretation of all present actions going on about the oil-matters. Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, Africa. The dollar clinging onto oil-power !?

Renewed trouble in Sri Lanka has to do with the US wanting a military (naval) base on the island (Indian Ocean).

Yukos/Sibneft are threathened with the Siberian Licenses (anti-looting) weapon. Putin also visiting the pope (invitation to come to ussia), whilst the EU constitution has a row about the notules on humanism/christian/jewish religion.

In the absence of BB...interesting times, indeed !

Regarding the two separate cases (Silvester/111317, IndustrialGold/111322) reporting the Mint's ceasing production of silver eagles at the end of 2003, has anyone been able to verify or find any further information about this? I was unable to find anything with an internet search. I also sent off an email to Coin World, for them to look into it. I can add some background, and a theory.

Sometime during 2002, the last delivery of silver available from the U.S. Strategic Silver Stockpile was delivered to the Mint. At that time, Coin World reported on it, but they had to go through the Freedom of Information Act to get quantity specifics. (Unfortunately, I misplaced the articles, so this is coming from memory). The Mint refused to estimate how long the supply would last, only stating that they had enough to finish the 2002 production run, as well as meet at least some of the expected 2003 coinage demand. Please bear with me here, as I put together some of the pieces to this picture.

It is estimated that the Strategic Stockpile was about 2 billion ounces in 1980. That was silver that the U.S. had primarily acquired at $1.29 per ounce, or less. When Congress passed the bullion program into law, it was stipulated that the program had to operate at a profit. Beginning in 1986, the Mint started the bullion silver eagle program, presumably feeding off of this existing supply of silver bullion (which would make sense, rather than buying it at a higher market price). Then, they would turn around and sell it at a spot + price to re-sellers. (Quite a profit!).

Here's my theory. Perhaps now, the Mint's silver "gravy train" has finally run out, and they have to play "hard ball", competing in the real silver market (the real world). Perhaps they figure that the profit margin on the bullion coin production will now be too small or unpredictable, that the silver market is too volatile to guarantee long-term production at a profit, as stipulated by the law. So, maybe they decided to get out of the silver bullion business altogether, focusing instead on the numismatic market for mint silver products, which allows a higher mark-up, thus ensuring profitability.

Just a theory.

Anybody know more about this?

Cheers.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3239927.stmSnippet:

Simon Kukes, the man chosen to take over the helm of Russian oil giant Yukos from jailed Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is no stranger to the energy business.
The 56-year-old new chief executive's career as an oilman spans 25 years, most recently as head of fellow Russian oil major TNK since 1998.

His credentials there include the recent $7.7bn joint venture signed with Britain's BP.

That could mean that talks with ExxonMobil to take a stake in Yukos, in jeopardy after prosecutors froze 44% of Yukos' shares last week, could be back on the cards.

American abroad

Mr Kukes is Russian-born but emigrated to the US in 1977, heading for Texas - the epicentre of the US oil trade - and taking out citizenship thereafter.

The 1980s saw him at Phillips Petroleum and then at Amoco, now part of BP, where he ran the company's business development in the former Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

By 1996 he was back in Russia for his first spell at Yukos. He returned to the company earlier this year.


Druid: This has more twists and turns then your average snake.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3243423.stmSnippet:

The EU has said US imports are to face duties of $200m (�120m) from March 2004.
The European Commission decided to impose the duties in retaliation against US tax breaks for exporters, which have been criticised by the World Trade Organisation.

Initially, the tariffs will be applied at a rate of 5% on up to $4bn of goods.

Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy said: "The Commission hopes to pass a very clear message to the United States that their continued failure to implement three years after the expiry of the original WTO deadline is unacceptable."

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) gave the EU the right to impose 100% tariffs on more than $4bn of US exports after ruling that the US tax breaks were illegal.

Druid: It looks like "globalization" might have to take a back seat to the return of the Nation State Model or some other similar model.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/11/05/045.htmlSnippet:

Political risk abounds and business is plagued by murder and organized crime -- but it takes more than that to put off foreign pioneers lured by Russian gold.

Driven by booming prices, Western players are overcoming their caution and starting to tiptoe through tricky local legislation to tap one of the world's biggest unexploited gold fields.

The fragmented gold industry could be at a turning point and is seen as ripe for consolidation.

"Russian gold is not quite like drugs, not like prostitution anymore," said Pavel Maslovsky, joint head of Peter Hambro Mining, a London-based firm operating in the Far East.

"It's not like a dog sled race through Alaska during the Gold Rush. It's not about thrill-seekers who used to operate in Russia in the 1990s, but about some serious Western players."

Gold firms looking to branch out of traditional but crowded markets like South Africa say now is the time to try their luck in riskier territories such as Russia.

Druid: While the rest of the world appears to be gearing up for a gold rush, we here at the good ole U.S. of A. are waiting for AMAZON to report its first real net operating profit. Being a bug here at home is similar to being a stranger in a foreign land.

http://www.goldensextant.com/LandisAMA.html#anchor537636[Remarks by Robert K. Landis to the Association of Mining Analysts, London, England, October 2, 2003]





Introduction

Gold bugs don't get out much. And it's very rare that we get an opportunity to address mainstream opinion makers. So it's a great honor indeed to speak to an organization that counts among its members some of the world's most influential mining analysts. I'm grateful to the Association, and to Chairman Michael Coulson, for inviting me here to talk today.

As the title of my remarks suggests, I'm not here to discuss the dissident theory of undisclosed official intervention in the gold market. Or to introduce or expand upon some new piece of evidence in support of that theory. Rather, I'd like to focus on the mainstream view of gold itself. I have two reasons for doing so. First, because I think as long as you hold that view, there's no way you can even hear the dissident message.

Second, and more important, I think it's time for influential people to begin thinking about what comes next. The dissident message, after all, is just one facet of a much bigger issue: the current monetary system is rotten to the core. So the question arises, where do we turn when the dikes break? The gold bugs� answer is simple: we'll have no choice; it'll be back to gold. But as long as the mainstream view is in place, it will continue to mask the true nature of the problem and prevent us from thinking constructively about a solution.

By the way, for an example of the type of thinking that's needed here, I refer you to Reg Howe's comprehensive analysis of the Canadian situation, posted yesterday. See Saving Canada with Gold Grams (or for those who prefer to read in French, Qu�bec Libre: Gramme par Gramme). Once you read it, you'll see why he was unable to be with us today.


The Clash of the Paradigms

Two paradigms are at war in the gold world. The dominant set of received beliefs, those that shape the way most of us look at gold, is the "gold as commodity" paradigm. This view, with few exceptions, is held by all the major players - official sources, the media, analysts, the miners, and even a lot of gold bugs who ought to know better.

The commodity paradigm has three basic elements:

1. Gold was "demonetized" in the 1970's.

2. Gold, like other commodities, is a hedge against inflation.

Here I bow to superior numbers and use the term "inflation" in its popular, and incorrect, sense: a rising price level. This is the sense in which the term is understood under the commodity paradigm, and also the sense in which it is used in the leading empirical study of gold, which I'll come to later. I hope the Austrians among you will forgive me; I can tackle only so many paradigms at one time.

3. There is no monetary demand for gold. The demand for gold is principally ornamental. Above-ground supply is abundant, and the bulk of it is held by central banks, who are indifferent and accidental owners. The market is always at risk of disruption from a mobilization of that supply.

Druid: Enjoy.

Under the law of contracts, there must be a consideration paid in exchange for the item or service sought. (There are other elements but I won't go into them for now.) Without the payment of consideration, there is no contract. And the consideration must be something of value. As far as I understand it, a person cannot "pay" (offer consideration) for something of value with something that does not have value. That would not be an enforceable contract. The contract would be null and void and the item bargined for would be returned to the original owner.

Now, if we believe that FRN's lack value and that gold has value, then it seems to me that people who are supposedly contracting to buy gold using evidences of debt, e.g., Fereral Reserve Notes, haven't actually entered into an enforceable contract. To me this means that they don't actually own the gold. To me this means that ownership goes back to the original owner/holder who has/had last title to the gold. This last owner/holder scenario continues all the way back to the person who last offered something of value for it: i.e., prior to fiat dollars. Was that the miner? Perhaps the person who had title the ground the gold came out of? Hm-m-m-m-m. Interesting thought.

I think that the net result is called confiscation.

Henry Ford of Ford Motor Company fame said (I think that this is the actual quote), "If the American People understood how the banking system worked, there would be an uprising by morning."

Now add to this the recent post by Druid who quoted Robert K. Landis as saying, "The dissident message, after all, is just one facet of a much bigger issue: the current monetary system is rotten to the core." Hm-m-m-m, I think I know what he's talking about.

Now, let me offer perhaps a more reassuring thought. In law there is a maxim that says that possession is 9/10's of the law. I'm sure that a person could use this to support his title to "his" gold. However, I hope he has more verbage than that to defend himself.

I would still buy gold. But I would also be aware of my position and be prepared to legally and lawfully defend my purchase. Any people here have any other suggestions on how to do this?

Is my original premise valid? Feel free to offer your rocks or roses. No problem.

You haven't taken your thinking far enough. As with every proposal for a new universe, there has to be internal consistency in the logic or rules that govern that universe.

You suggested that Gold ownership might not be valid because it was not consumated by "payment of consideration... something of value" (if paid for with Federal Reserve Notes.)

You go on from there to suggest that the purchase contrat could be considered invalid, and ownership would revert to... perhaps the miners who "had title to the ground the Gold came out of."

Was not that same title to ground paid for by Federal Reserve Notes? (all Gold from claims to mining rights on public land aside.)

You know, I continue to worry about guys like steady (says, "Gold is honest MONEY for honest peope") and and Druid (says, "Gold is MONEY - deal with it!")

They're clearly not taking their thoughts far enough to yield a viable universe with internally consitent rules/logic.

It might be a good time to revisit my old remarks to steady on this old issue. To the effect:

Gold is money? What is it about Gold that makes it MONEY?

Before the first human ever bought a fish from his buddy who caught two, even before the time that T-Rex nabbed an easy meal of some sorry four-legged critter who was temporarily mesmerized by the yellow pebbles glittering in the stream, what feature arose out of the primordial ooze that invested yellow atoms with the mandate of "moneyness" as you'd have it?

Or OR **OR** is it possible that Gold is Gold, whereas money is an invention of mankind that came along somewhat very much later in the grand scheme?

You know.... there didn't used to be derivatives, either. Soooooo.... with that firmly *FIRMLY* in mind, what gentle and patient help should we offer some poor soul who goes about saying "Gold is derivatives."????

"GOLD. HONEST DERIVATIVES FOR HONEST PEOPLE."

"GOLD IS DERIVATIVES - DEAL WITH IT!!"

Can anyone back me up with a major "Sheeeeeeeeeeeesh" here?

Truth be told, I certainly can't stop my neighbor from using his saw to drive nails, but I can surely step in and show him how nicely a hammer works to provide a superior result. That way, if I (or the other neighbor) ever need to cut wood, there's a good chance I'll be able to borrow a suitable tool from him that hasn't been already DESTROYED in his other ill-informed practices.

Again, this may sound stern, but I'm just tryin' to be a good neighbor here.

Gold. It is what it is. Get you some, and know the size and shape of your savings/wealth. --- Ari

PS. If I could have a SECOND wish come true for Christmas this year, it would be that everyone *EVERYONE* would understand *UNDERSTAND* the truth and internally consistent logic of Sir Belgian's excellent message 111353 yesterday. Some day.... I'm gonna buy that guy a beer.

Gonlyold, regarding your post, to put it all briefly, if we could only wrap our mind around ONE thing...

THAT would be the thing.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.htmlQ. : WHEN will Gold rush to its REVALUATION ?
A. : When dollar-price-inflation is "de-contained" !

Dollar-inflation (inflare) since 1933 up until today, did NOT produce proportionate price-inflation.
From 1933 to 1973, Americans had to sacrifice their personal Gold as to defend the expanding (inflating) dollar, outside the US. And from 1971 onwards, the dollar-system went into another dynamic dimension.

Those past 3 decades, *concerted* efforts, focussed on the containment of dollar-price-inflation.
Where are we standing NOW and is the present situation indicating that we are getting very close to the liberation of that contained price-inflation monster ?

Yes, today, the dollar-price-inflation monster, is completely immobilized because it is on the verge of breaking out.

1/ 20 years of rising stock markets as to absorb the ongoing, permanent, dollar inflation. Still going strong today. And the general acceptance of "absurd" valuations is evidence that the rising (strong) stock market is serving the purpose of absorbing dollars !

2/ More CBs around the globe are absorbing more (un-needed) dollars. The US as export destination of last resort. The excesses (un-needed dollar-reserves) of the returned dollar-paper for the export of goods/services goes to rest in non American CBs.

3/ Near zero (very low) Interest Rates are Irrationally, Exhuberantly LOW and a gigantic artificial sign that one should not expect (fear) any price-inflation. Another (hum) super chain on the price-inflation monster.

4/ A political arranged and amuzing POO price target zone (22$-28$) as to safe the dollar's face somewhat. Note how very disciplined this works, despite rising tensions !
The POO is NOT indicating, nor provoking, dollar-price-inflation !

5/ Dollar-euro exchange rate ! How nice and sweet are these two sisters "behaving" !!! So harmonious and undisturbing...un-alarming ! The global economic situation does NOT allow us to rock any boat that would/should/could make any wave as to "induce" run-away dollar-price-inflation !!!

6/ All remains well in dollar-paper-gold land. A. Smith remains on post...India is going to paperize its gold also...and ETF as another paperizer.

Whilst economic, political reasons keep on containing the inevitable outbreak of general dollar-price-inflation...the euro keeps on * maturing * AND oil grows ever more * independant * (nuclear Iran) !!!

Possession is 9/10ths of the law.
As such, if the government ever attempted wide-scale confiscation of the gold that is "out there" in the USA, only about 10% would actually be recovered.

That is my estimate, anyway.

In such a confiscation scenario, however, I wonder what would be the legal status of the legal-tender US Gold Eagle bullion coins ?

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the arrested head of the Yukos oil company seemed sympathetic to western (US) interests. He supported plans for a merger with a US oil company, and supported the pricing of oil in dollars. Putin sacked him, possibly because Putin is not as sympathetic to the US. Putin also recently stated Russia's interest in pricing oil in Euros rather than dollars. With Khodorkovsky out of the way, it is more likely that at least some of Russia's oil will be priced in Euros.

If it is true that Italy is providing aide to Russia for disposing of cold war leftovers, then that could be signalling a major economic development. That sort of aide would have traditionally come for the US. But with it coming from a Euro member, it shows Russia's intentions to bond more closely with Europe and less so with the US.

I follow the coin industry very closely. I have not heard any hints whatsoever about the suspension of the Silver Eagle coin program. I believe that it will contine and many 2004 coins will be issued.

However, I did hear a rumor from a former mining engineer. That unsubstantiated rumor is that the US government (Mint, EPA, etc.) worked out a deal with a Couer D'Alene Idaho silver mine. The "deal" was that the mine wouldn't have to clean up it's site to current EPA standards, in exchange for supplying the Mint with lower-cost silver.

I have no idea if any of that is true or not.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.htmlDay after day...after day, I have that strong feeling of coming closer and closer to the SIMPLE understanding of Gold. But day after day, my impression grows, that many (if not all) "astute" and very "advanced" Gold-observers, increasingly take every turn and twist as to get further...and further away from the SIMPLE understanding of Gold.

On my ticker tape here, I see Dow futures plunging (70)...UK household debts at absurd levels and UK-IRs rising...and whoopse the firebrigades pop up...

For the forum newcomers, I've included the link (hope it works) where everything is on a Golden plate. Gold-students, simply have to "think" deep and constantly check how these "foundation" insights connect with the present evolvements. As simple as that.But noooooooo...day after day, new, completely entangled theories are popping up.


Ari...its a bit lonely in the deserts...but I love these places and have frequently visited them. Thanks for the symbolic beer and cheers to ye. B.

I should add that the initial legislation authorizing the US Eagle bullion coin program stipulated that the gold & silver had to come from US mines. The silver "strategic" stockpile was considered to be USA-mined, so it was eligible for use in the Silver Eagle program.

I do not know if that US-only supplier stipulation is still in effect.

But I do suspect that there would be some unhappy people in the government if the US Mint went to the Comex/Nymex and purchased the needed silver for delivery. I'm pretty sure that they have deemed that approach to be unacceptable.

Belgian,
you wrote:
At present the euro-float is growing. The oil for euro must make this euro-float big and robust enough as to be able to receive/absorb a massive dumping of un-needed dollars .
It is this process that we are watching at present. All those un-needed dollars (still growing) simply wait up until they are replaced/compensated with the GOLD WEALTH RESERVE ASSET, that has been accumulated (redistributed to) by all those who have those un-needed dollars and shift to the application of the Jamaica Accords, at last.
***********************************************************
My question:

As we have three trillion worth of dollars floating around overseas, and a balance of payments deficit running at $500 billion per year, what percentage of the public and private holdings of dollars has gone into gold in the last 12 months? It was just recently reported that in the last 12 months the gold buying public bought appproximately 250,000
oz.of gold eagle coins. At $400 per oz. that comes to about 100 million dollars. Change from a Bill Gates type buyers $1 billion note would be $900,000,000. In other words it appears to me that the amount of gold buying by all on this planet is a drop in the bucket compared with their present and future holdings. The total gold reserves in the US is less than $100 billion.

The amount of gold being bought by Central Banks such as Russia and China has to be a very small percentage of the amount of dollars they receive.
Any attempt to exchange their dollars for gold via "massive dumping, would, first of all, massively depreciate the lions share of their holdings in the first hour of "massive dumping". Second, the markets would close. The "masssive dumping would,in my opinion,force world central banks to come up with a new monetary system. Of course a black market in dollar dumping and gold accumulation would be instantly born. The longer it took to put a new system in place the more damage would be done.

The way things are at present does not lend itself to sudden change. Japan is the poster boy example of "self interest comes first." It is, they believe, in their interest to keep the dollar game going. Keep the US afloat and healthy enough to keep on buying Japanese goods.

The end can come with a financial event, too large to handle, or by a small country like Malaysia who cares not about how the chips may fall regarding its taking the world on with a gold standard currency.

Hi Belgian-
Yes, the JA paradigm in hindsight is looking a little wobbly at present, but the logic that a wholesale disposal of Dollars by CB's is imminent could also be applied to Gold. The Dollar IS the reserve currency a-la the Accord (as good as Gold).
While a wholesale Gold sell-off by CB's is a remote possibility, (some have!) I'd posit a Dollar sell-off is an only slightly lesser one.
The Systemic/Dollar mechanism will turn pear-shaped of it's own accord...with or without Jamaica.
On the home front the RBA raised rates today by 25bp as a precursor of things to come...NOT!
Aust-(Dollar bloc) is doing an Ireland with 25yr low unemployment, millionaires at every bus-stop and record attendances at mid-week sporting venues...The Aussie$ rocketed ahead, tempering conserns re inflation...What a world eh!

https://www.savegold.com/story.htmlWith yesterday's news that the Louisana trial of Morgan Chase (et alia) for conspiring to repress the price of gold is now going into the discovery phase, it's worth a look at the sort of data that plaintiffs have accumulated even without the legal right to demand documents. For background information including involvement of the Saudi royal family, the CIA, and well known western political and economic figures, check out the links available above.

As the trial makes public this sort of information (plus whatever else gets confirmed/discovered), more and more people will become aware that the current price of gold is artificially low. It shouldn't take more than a dozen wealthy individuals deciding to take advantage of these low prices to release the volleyball from the bottom of the swimming pool.

Regarding the theory that Saudis have made cheap oil available in exchange for under-the-table ounces of yellow metal, keep in mind that the father of King Fahad, the five fat brothers and the lean half-brother Crown Prince Abdullah was known to sleep with the treasury of his new nation in a chest under his bed. Most non-royals in the kingdom share a fatalistic outlook shown by how often you hear these two common sayings:
(1) "Sand will blow through the streets of Riyahd."
(2) "My father rode a camel. I drive a Mercedes. My son will ride a camel."

Against that background, it's understandable that the royals are motivated to accumulate real wealth so that their descendants can continue to live well after they lose power or -- in the best case -- after the oil is gone. If in the meanwhile that means cheap oil in terms of US dollars per barrel, so be it. From the viewpoint of the US government, if providing the under-the-table inducement is made easier by allowing the price of gold to be suppressed, so be it.

The time will come when Saudi royals will be motivated to have their accumulated wealth recognized at its true value per ounce. In theory, that time could be as distant as the economic exhaustion of the Saudi oilfields. But it could come quicker if/when the Saud family loses power. And it could come even quicker if/when either of two things happens:
(1) POG rises to the point that the ounces needed for the agreed upon under-the-table inducement costs the US government more than it lowers the price of oil. Or...
(2) Public outrage demands that the under-the-table inducement program come to an end.

These two eventualities are interrelated in that public awareness of what has been going on (needed for [2] above)will also prompt buying demand for gold, raising POG enough to trigger (1) above. Finally, the likelihood and timing of either or both of these eventualities may well be driven by what the now-active trial in Louisana makes public.

"There ain't no rush like a gold rush."

Caradoc

If/when it becomes in the interest of "The Powers That Be" for gold to be priced by market forces (and whether this pricing translates to a three-fold increase or a ten-fold increase), many here are likely to see healthy profits. Exchanges like Comex have been known to limit such profits to "cash settlement only" with the bid on a given Thursday being whatever they decide is a fair profit. Even worse, it's a fact of life that such profits automatically attract the attention of national governments. At best, those governments will be considering whether tax law should be changed to allow greater "revenue" than current taxes would generate. At worst, governments have been known to confiscate the yellow metal.

So... If your gold is paper gold, you may see an arbitrary limit to your actual profit. No matter what your profit turns out to be and even if you profit from holding physical gold, you may get small satisfaction from contributing to your nation's balance sheet by paying a brand new "windfall profits tax." (Some "windfall" if you've been accumulating for a decade or more!!!) Worst case is that gold gets demonized as the curency of terrorists and your stash gets confiscated while you get reimbursed at whatever rate TPTB decide to pay you.

These problems tend to be avoided/minimized if your holdings are numismatic coins arguably valued based upon scarcity as well as gold content. (For one thing, it's too hard for bureaucrats to figure out a simplistic formula for reimbursement!) Maybe a personal preference, but I happen to like MS-63 or better Saint Gaudens. Whatever coins you may choose, our host has them available at what I think are temporarily depressed prices. Just call 1(800)869-5115, extension 110.

Caradoc

if gold isnt money aristotle , what is it? besides gold? a store house ? what is it? i have no answers and have thought it thru obvioulsy im on the wrong path/trail care to enlighten me as to what gold is then? how bout gold honest waelth saver?
haha what clues you going to give me for its unlike you to just come out and blurt it out in a split second blunder rather than making individuals use theree cranium.
wating patiently for more golden nuggets aristotle.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people! <;+)__~~~

As much as I'd like to riddle the matter further for you, at this point it's all so simple that to take the next step is put an end to it for everyone except those who try very very mindfully to look away and avoid the truth in front of them. Belgian sitting over there... I hear him saying "Amen!" to that.

The only way an honest person can honestly ask "what is Gold?" is if they haven't been introduced to the (political(????)) notion of Private Property.

Let's all think looooooooong and honestly about that, then try this on for size -- a rallying cry to replace your faulty one:

"Gold: honest property for honest people."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

"We'd rather have Gold in hand than to have the paper promise (money)."

Spoken as by someone who knows the *TRUE* nature of money -- and its shortcomings!

For your security, choose Gold over money; property over promise.

Every time.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

specie-man (11/6/03; 01:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 111366)
Gold possession/confiscation
--- snip ---
In such a confiscation scenario, however, I wonder what would be the legal status of the legal-tender US Gold Eagle bullion coins ?
===
BRAVO Sir Specie-man !!!
One can solve that legal tender confiscation problem very easily, YES ?
JUST THINK !!
That is what I have been preaching since the year the "Gold Eagle" pieces arrived.
Thanks
<;-)

The bulk of the dollar-reserves will stay where they are.
The 1971 > 1980 goldrush made it VERY clear, that even 20 years ago, it was IMPOSSIBLE, to rush for Gold, ALL together at the same time !!! Keep it simple mates.
Today, ALLLLLLL those stashed dollars CANNOT....NOTTTTTTT go for Gold. THAT'S WHY CBs STILL HAVE THEIR GOLD and dollar-reserves. Because FREEGOLD-reserves will COMPENSATE for the quasi useless dollars attained by "inflatitis".

It ONLY is the dollar that has been losing its Gold-reserves !!! And it will only be the dollar-CB (FED) that will lose more Gold-reserves if it choses to further defend the dollar when price-inflation is allowed to manifest itself.

Don't complicate the Gold story, that is rather extremely simple. Accumulate the precious Golden Wealth Reserve Asset, while we continue to live in and with the dollar-orgy (bachanal).

Read those FOA Archives I, again and again... line per line and reflect on it line per line...everything, all your answers on one single golden plate.

Sir Greenie, speaking now, got decorated for his nice efforts to "DEFEND" the dollar in an economical viable fashion. AlSpan has been extending the dollar-reserves's lifetime. Duisenberg got no medal, because he put the dollar's challenge (replacement) in place !

Watch those six elements that support-defend the dollar-system. Wait until this dollar-dam starts breaking down...desintegrates ! Be prepared with the ultimate Golden compensation - tool ! It will happen Sirs !

Sir Aristotle, I would like to think that I "understand" your logic reference gold. The title in my past post is actually the title of Mr. Landis' recent speech. Gold for whatever reasons has stood the "test of time" to be rated the true wealth of mankind. Gold is still gold it is man's thoughts about gold that change with the seasons. What I "should" have been doing in the past that I'm presently doing is working for confetti and converting that confetti to something tangible like bullion, tools, land, health...etc.. and not the illusions and delusions of paper wealth. Many thanks for your postings as you always make me think.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

from today's brain-harried scurry ...

Ari -- I was just thinking that "9/10ths" thing yesterday.

Druid -- a philosopher in our midst! -- I gotta re-read your yesterday's with a cup o' coffee on break-time.

Caradoc -- thanks for fleshing out some of the Saudi scenarios that help me extend my A/FOA memory, gotta get back to that, as Belgian says.

Silvercollector -- hope you're not gone. Didn't catch any longer goodbye commentary from you, but it sounded like that.

G: So now, it's been a year since the Bernanke burst (which came at a fine time for me; really needed a morale boost) but we've marked time since then (oh, a war or two for a roundtrip to the 380s == brilliant of our C-in-C eh? not a terrorist attack locally since we sent them some more convenient targets -- hostages?).

I wonder what accommodation was made -- calculation of available reserves? -- that allowed the ascent of about $100 and "no futhah, fer now".??? gotta run...

Here's one we can scratch our heads about. With China's eventual final phase of liberalization of the Gold market in mind (that is, allowing its citizens to own Gold) I can't help wondering what fuller effect President Bush was aiming for in his remarks to the National Endowment for Democracy moments ago.

He more or less said, "If men and women are allowed to control their own wealth, they will want to control their own lives, with their own democracy."

On the one hand it sounds like an encouragement, but on the other...
(Does anyone get my point, or do I gotta lay it all out for ya?)

Moving right along...

Druid, thanks for the good words. Wish more people would see the elegance of your/my strategy of steady wealth accumulation.

Gold. Get you some... with the regularity of the lunar cycle. --- Aristotle

Sounds to me almost as if he was addressing fellow members of the Trilateral Commission or the Bildeburgers or someone and giving dire warning that if something wasn't done quickly the sheep would be out of their control.

We can't have that now can we?

Ari, I very much appreciate your insightful comments (I still get a kick out of your "Ari-Instruments" discussion a while back!).

It very well may be a warning to China's leaders, but it would be lost on most people as being a noble plug for "human rights" and democracy. Too bad most in the West do not understand the role of gold as a preserver of wealth like the Chinese undoubtedly do.

As your sage advice goes: Gold....(we all know the rest)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20031106/default.htmSnippet:

"History has shown that, when faced with large challenges, elected officials have risen to the occasion. In particular, looking back over the past twenty years or so, it has been evident that the prospect of large deficits generally has led to actions to narrow them. I trust that the recent deterioration in the budget outlook and the fast-approaching retirement of the baby-boom generation will be met with similar determination and effectiveness."


Comment: Guess when push comes to shove, "trust (read "hope")" is about all that is left.

Hmmm...

I'm guessing most americans that have wealth (a minority I'm certain) believe they are in control of it. :-)

If they own gold physical, they definately are (for now).

They also probably believe they are are in control of their own lives/destiny and are citizens of a democracy that serves their needs. It is only by individual insight that the illusions of self determination and "democracy" are shattered. The govt cannot allow the majority to become aware of the box they are in.

The "democracy" certainly is serving the needs of the majority feeding the debt frenzy, but they are not the wealthy.

http://www.empireonline.co.uk/news/news.asp?story=5144C!

Yesterdays wall street journal had an article about rising commodity prices world wide.They suggested if one wants to invest in gold,one should buy less risky gold mining stocks.I thought par for the course them saying paper is safer than metal in hand.On another note I had a friend convinced to buy some metal with some of his paper profits he backed out and did not do it,he said stocks are coming back and he was gonna wait on buying gold.I said thats your decision and left it at that.I spent a few hours explaining how to buy metal and why he should I feel like I wasted my time.This guy made a bundle in tech I am taliking a couple hundred thousand but he lost it all now he thinks he is gonna get it backO well I tried.21

21Mabry-

More evidence that it is easier to make some money gambling than to KEEP it. I've been playing some gold stocks, too, but they are NOT a proxy for my physical holdings. One is a GAMBLE - the other is inflation protected SAVINGs.

ari i was walking down that property trail one day and seemd to somehow been sidetracked . let me revisit it again and get back to you .

gold and silver
honest something for
honest people.

trying to figure out honestly what that something is>

These are the gems that I look for on this website.....
thank you for delivering .....the latest on Pres BUSH...


President Bush represents a group of CONTROL FREAKS who are worried about their future of their children (Status and Quo)......

What he said , whether a guarded warning or not,,,,is very prophetic and the GOLDEN age that approaches in CHINA's economic history ........is likely to bring new Vistas......on the HORIZON of HUMAN enlightenment and accomplishment......THE CHINEZE people only lack being armed with the right QUESTIONS to drive their culture to places WHERE NEW LIGHT DAWNS on all the world ......because they have a "MIND TO WORK" and they deserve a worth SPIRITUAL DESTINY to make meaningful fulfillment happen in their lives as they take the lead in the WORLD ECONOMY..........the control freaks , parents of the status quo .....lost their way when they lost their vision......and became mesmerized by the unsatisfiable mistresses of LUST < GREED< AND POWER.....

Giving the PEOPLE GOLD may turn the world back right side up again ..........what a wonderful opportunity......to do what ALVIN LEE(TEN YEARS AFTER) said he didn't know how to do ...."change the world"

Paradigm SHIFT anyone??????

Hey, Ari, have you figured out what gold is yet?

Hehe, just kidding! I agree with you. Gold is a rare precious metal which many highly value. In fact, many value gold so much that they will exchange lots of money for it.

Gold....a rare, heavy metal
Money....a medium (commonly made of paper) assigned an arbitrary but constantly fluxuating value in order that it may be used in barter to fascilitate trade.
Trade without money....an exchange of real property or similar exchange of goods and/or services according to mutual agreement but without an exchange of "money"

How's that, have I got it right?
Gold..a metal
Money...a convenient means for exchange settlement
Silver !! a metal whose dollar value will no longer buy a bushel of soybeans. Get it while it's cheap! (BTW, soybeans recently traded over $11.00 on the Chinese Exchange. Imagine, two ounces of silver for one bushel of beans!)

Question: If any tangible asset is accepted for payment or as payment, did that asset become "money" during the exchange? Now about that tree in the woods....
Metals...Get you lots!
Rich

Gold stocks behaving badly at the end of the session!
Euro sinking below 0.382 Fib.

Expect attack on POG tomorrow (as if you needed to be told).

Short-term investors should buy.
Long-term investors should yawn and go to the beach.

The shorter they get, the more they get squeezed ;)

Aristotle said, "You haven't taken your thinking far enough. As with every proposal for a new universe, there has to be internal consistency in the logic or rules that govern that universe."

I agree wholeheartedly. Bravo my good Sir. It's true that I didn't go far enough with my issue. I will admit that the reason was that going further entered into the spritual realm of gold. But since you prodded me...

Why are you stopping with the universe? I happen to not believe that the universe is the only entity out there. Let's take this right on up to the third heaven, as described in the Bible, right to the throne of God and ask God who owns the gold. I think I know the answer. He's going to say something like I created the gold, it's My gold and I can do with it whatever I want. I not going to argue with that.

Returning to earth, we find a similar principle at work here: if you made it, it's yours. Car manufacturers "make" an automobile and then, rightfully so, claim that the automobile is theirs. I won't argue with that. Although keep in mind that the materials were "paid for" with fiat, valuless money.

Gold can't be "made", but it can be mined. The ground from which it came from can serve as evidence of title. And as you so rightly pointed out, "Was not that same title to ground paid for by Federal Reserve Notes? (all Gold from claims to mining rights on public land aside.)" Yes, exactly. And surely the US Treasury knows and, I believe, abides by this: that the ground can be used to ascertain title.

Consider what specie-man posted (#111370). "I should add that the initial legislation authorizing the US Eagle bullion coin program stipulated that the gold & silver had to come from US mines. The silver "strategic" stockpile was considered to be USA-mined, so it was eligible for use in the Silver Eagle program." This is consistant with my belief.

The ground is owned by the US. If gold is confiscated, under the "possession is 9/10's of the law" maxim, it will be based on the fact that no one but the US Treasury owns the gold here in America because everyone used fiat, valuless money to "pay for" it.

Oh my oh my... I was just getting started when I noticed the time. I'm so sorry, I have to go. Will continue later.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7936-2003Nov6.htmlSnip:

In a speech to the Securities Industry Association in Boca Raton, Fla., Greenspan said that employers have been able to increase production without hiring new workers because of an "exceptionally high rate of growth in output per hour over the past two years."

But now the odds "increasing favor a revival in job creation," the Fed chairman said, because businesses need to rebuild their stocks of unsold goods that were drawn
......................
In his speech, Greenspan said that in the past, during recoveries following recessions, the Fed has had "to move aggressively" to raise interest rates to keep inflation contained. But this time inflation "has been running only a little more than 1 percent over the last year,
...........................
***********
Misetich

"Greenspan High" reads the headline- He Must be to utter such nonsense as "But this time inflation "has been running only a little more than 1 percent over the last year, "

Since Sir Greenspan cannot define money - it doesn't surprise he cannot define inflation

This man is reckless

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp031106.htmSnip:

Trichet: (Translation from French) Just very briefly I would like to say that we follow a strategy of a stable euro, a strong euro and a euro that inspires confidence. That is the strategy we follow, a strong, stable euro that inspires confidence. And by inspiring confidence we have market rates which are low both in the medium and in the long term, we inspire confidence among savers and that also creates a financial environment which is favourable to growth and to job creation. By having a euro that inspires confidence we also maintain the purchasing power of consumers and we therefore have consumers who find that they have more capacity to consume. And we have more investment and more consumption � all else being equal.

......................

Trichet: Well, we all, of course, have assets and liabilities, if I may, chances and risks on the various continents, in the various big, or small, economies. And as far as the US economy is concerned, it is true that there is a certain lack of savings, an element which is reflected in the current account
..................
Question: First of all, you have mentioned many benefits from the stability of the currency, but are you happy to be called "the ayatollah of the strong euro"?
......................
Trichet: First of all, I would say that, as you know, all responsible central banks are pursuing policies that are oriented towards long-term strong currency. ........You cannot find any central bank in the world which would say that they would prefer to have a weak currency. It would immediately trigger a refusal of investors and savers to invest in that currency. It would elevate immediately the long-term and medium-term market interest rates. All market interest rates would increase. So it is very important for a central bank to preserve and reinforce confidence, confidence of � I would say � all economic agents, but particularly investors and savers
*************
Misetich

Trichet being described as "the ayatollah of the strong euro" -

Inflation in Europe measured by the HICP is hedging higher, thus EU cannot afford higher import price inflation without raising IR

Thus a strong Euro and Weak US $ is a certainty as the global monetary fixers juggle and rejuggle to find optimum levels

Doubt the imbalances created by these same fixers will be resolved

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/200311062/default.htmSnip:

The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market: Some Possible Explanations

Why has the job market remained relatively weak despite strong recent gains in spending and output? A number of hypotheses have been advanced.
.................
First, some have suggested that firms over-hired during the late 1990s boom, implying that the levels of employment seen before the recession peak in March 2001 were not sustainable.
........................
Second, some observers have pointed to increases in benefit costs to employers as a factor retarding hiring.
......................
A third explanation for the slowness of firms to begin hiring is that an elevated level of political and economic uncertainty has made firm managers more hesitant to expand their businesses.
.....................
A fourth explanation for the slow recovery of employment is that much of the employment loss is the result of an increased pace of structural change in the U.S. economy.
.....................
As is widely recognized, the U.S. current account deficit cannot be sustained indefinitely at its current high level and will eventually have to be brought down to a more manageable size. However, eliminating the U.S. current account deficit too quickly is neither desirable nor feasible.
......................
My conclusions therefore are relatively optimistic. The combination of faster growth in demand and slowing productivity growth should lead, in the next few quarters, to increased hiring. At the same time, inflation appears subdued and likely to remain so. Thus it appears that monetary policy can remain accommodative, supporting the economic recovery and the recovery of the labor market, without endangering price stability.
***************
Misetich

Bernanke admits he and the Feds don't know what's happening - he attempts to rationalize various theories to explain the jobless recovery

Admits there is little US can do to reduce current account deficit as it is a structural problem

Admists Feds are using the Hail Mary pass and hope everything works out as the Feds maintains its accomodative stance ( falling behind the curve again!)

That certainly inspires confidence! Doesn't it?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

He has revealed his "policy" as Governor. He has thrown down the gauntlet IMHO

The $87 BILLION DOLLAR folly in Iraq being compared to the Marshall Plan!!!!! Is nothing sacred? That is purely spin and obfuscation. Thank you (NOT) for insulting the careers, memories and heroics of all those men and women involved in that endeavor not least of all Harry S. Truman and George C. Marshall.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/06/business/worldbusiness/06china.html
HONG KONG, Nov. 5 - Responding to hints in recent weeks from senior Chinese financial regulators that another bailout of the country's biggest banks might be needed, two credit rating agencies issued separate reports on Wednesday suggesting that China's previous efforts had not solved the banking system's troubles.

Goldilox: Either the Chinese are learning their "smoke and mirror" lessons from the western banks or all is not completely well in the new China capital economy. this from a country with a 40% export growth and 35% import growth

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TGH2JMIIGCOBQCRBAEOCFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3771297Snip:

BOCA RATON, Fla, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The combination of widening U.S. fiscal deficits and the looming retirement of the "baby boom" generation is placing the world's largest economy on a collision course with a potential economic calamity, a prominent economist said on Thursday.
..........................
In turn, Siegel said, the federal government's obligation to that demographic will diminish the allure of U.S. assets that foreign investors could be reluctant to fund.

"Who is going to buy the assets of the 'baby boomers' when they are set to retire?" Siegel asked the conferees.
..........................
While he advocated federal spending cuts rather than hiking rates of taxation, Greenspan warned that "almost surely," the current liabilities of Social Security and Medicare "cannot be financed at the current tax rates."
**************
Misetich

Alarm bells ringing and flashing - Flip flopping Sir Greenspan wants spending cuts not tax increases (after all he give Bush the greenlight to cut as productivity gains etc...etc)

The US economy temporary pick up is due to government stimuli, military spending and low IR -

The Feds hope inventory require replenishment will stimulate production thus establishing the vicious circle of growth - yet auto industry inventories are rising, and retail sales are mediocre - and with all probabilities any production gearup will be done in China, etc rather than the decimated US mfg industry

As one poster recently said, American Corporations are hiring - unfortunately those hirings are in India, China, Asia

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Buy gold now, buy it later, and keep buying.
I dont see what all the fuss is over the allegations of "market timing" by rich mutual fund holders. For one thing, dont they always tell us that market timing "doesn't work"?

But apparently if you're rich then you must also be smart too, by definition? (snort!) And guilty too of course. Which of course means you need to be punished and give up all those "ill gotten" gains. That's the question I have: "what gains?"

Now it seems to me that if market timing doesn't work, then all the gains of the succesful market timers comes at the expense of the unsucessful market timers (who would be the vast majority, some win big, most just loose.) On balance they cancel each other out. Result: NO LOSS to the other holders of the fund. Um... well...

But of course the fund operators MUST have benefited right? Let's see, they permitted this sloshing around of assets and DIDN'T charge for it! That's unfair! They DIDN'T charge the commission that the lowly peon-run-of-the-mill average joe has to pay for HIS market timing. They didn't charge!

So they didn't collect their commission- THEY WEREN'T PAID. (supposedly if the fund operator was big enough, they got the benefit of more volume to keep their trading floor people busy, so maybe they made a few basis points).

Regardless of the correctness of the foregoing, the result is that the market timers churned their shares so much that in some cases (according to the news reports I heard- which are probably of extreme cases, and no where near the average) the fund portfolio turnover was in some cases as much as 700% in a year. Presumably the winners had lots of short term cap gains to declare to the IRS. The loosers might have some losses.


BUT ALL FUND HOLDERS had higher cap gain "distributions" as a result!


Note: (theoretically, in the degenerate case where one bunch of timers EXACTLY match the opposite trading activity (same time, same size trade) of the other bunch, THEN in that case, there are no cap gains for the fund to distribute: each group has merely traded places with the other, and the fund doensn't need to enter the market to buy or sell)

2nd Note: (given my aglarious ignorance of the us tax code, It is possible that I am toatlly wrong here.)

So I ask the question: is it possible that Uncle Sam was the biggest beneficiary of the market timing. In effect, the portfolio turnover due to the timers forced all the "buy and holders" to in effect pay maximum cap gain rates to the federal government for the priviledge of buying and holding.

In a rising market, the new money comming into a fund usually covers redemptions- all the cap gains are due to management investment decisions, and not to operational needs. Yet if the market timing big shots were successful, they forced the fund to sell high, buy low and while they themselves had to pay the maximum tax rate (presumably) their fund ALSO had to book those sales and pass on the liability.

There's the real scandal: mutual funds act like a federal government scam to skim your money.

So that's why I predict that the SEC wont antagonize the mutual fund industry too much. The federal goverment needs the rent money. And if punitive fines ARE imposed, then let me be the first to DEMAND that Uncle Sam cough up HIS ill gotten loot as well!

Wont happen!

If you want to buy and hold, stick to those yellow poker chips- the kind that go "ding" and aren't subject to the wild fires of the comming dollar holocaust. Because on that day, your mutual fund statement will be about as useful as a fire insurance policy from a bankrupt insurer. Better to hold gold than ashes.

Does anyone know why the stock market is going up?

That reminds me of the old gilgalad commemorative issue that came out... sheesh... mustve been about 27 years after 3319. It had seven tiny little stars (just the same shape as on the US double eagle. It wasn't a pure gold coin however, I dont remember the process but the stars were of isildinnu. I've seen a few put on the pommel of swords and such. The neat thing about it was you could make change by starlight.

Because the prez election is a year away and investors know that WHATEVER must be done will be done.

How much money does it take to make the stock market keep
on going up in this way? Where is that money coming from?
Are you sure that there are enough people investing on the
sure bet of the re-election year actions to account for
all of it?

R. Powell, your question (I believe rhetorical):

Question: If any tangible asset is accepted for payment or as payment, did that asset become "money" during the exchange?

I believe the answer is, "No". Barter is barter, and though items may transfer value for value exchanged...that transaction, or even a series of similar transactions, would not elevate the assets involved to "money". Money is something accepted as a "medium of exchange" and measure of value. An item, to be money, must pass freely in exchange for all items in business, commerce transactions. My accepting your cord of firewood in exchange for my load of road gravel, would in no way make either of those items money; for neither the butcher, the baker, nor the candlestick maker may exchange with us for any of our barter commodities. As I say, rhetorical, as I believe you were just wishing to eliset a response.

This also brings to mind the many other requirements that historically must be fulfilled before an asset ascends to the status of money. They have been listed before but it's good to repeat them. The asset must possess:
1) Intrinsic value
2) durability (indestructible)
3) Divisibility
4) Portability
5) Fungibility (sameness and interchangeable)
6) Limited in supply, but not so limited as to be unattainable.

At the point where an asset is accepted as money, it's value as a "store of value", "wealth property", and medium of exchange overtakes or supercedes it's intrinsic use value and it trades at a higher value than for it's former intrinsic uses.

Only one asset today fills the bill. Atomic number 79...Au...Gold.

Otherwise: wood is only wood-- gravel, gravel-- and paper, of course, only paper; though governments' now require us to take it due to legal tender laws.
--------------------------------

You bring up another subject briefly: Silver. Poor--sad--sorry-silver. And I say all that with regret not derision as it may sound. Sorry to say that Silver has lost it's shine as money, store of value, wealth property--what-have-you! It's a shame, because readers of this forum probably own a ton (literally) of the stuff, myself included.

What value we hold for silver as money now probably is left over love from our nations past history of Bimetallism, under which the U.S. and the known world operated until about the 1870's or so. The ratio of Silver to Gold, for U.S. coinage at the mint, began at 15 to 1, went to 16 to 1 in about 1834, but after Europe gradually shifted to monometallism (Gold Standard) beginning about 1871, the ratio increased to believe-it-or-not, 40 to 1 by about 1900 or 1910, somewhere in there. The last two presidential elections of the 19th century were fought over money (Gold and Silver). Interesting subject to investigate.

Poor silver was demoted to small coinage valuations, but large tender valuations were in Gold.

In short, Gold and Silver were not homogenous when it came to monetary valuation, and of course they are not fungible, either.

Today, silver's role seems to be strictly a matter of commercial value. What is the Silver to Gold ratio today? Big number. This shows, I think, what silver's role is in the world today (commerce)...not what we think it is, or what we may think it should be, or will be. We can hope and wish and think that it will return to a role in the world's monetary system, but to this point it is off the radar screen...Sorry.

By the way, Bimetallism is still an interesting idea and could probably work--but we won't hear anyone speaking about it. Not now, anyway.

Nice evening to you, ----------Gdome

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel110603pv.htmlSnippet:

Inflation is defined as an increase in volume of the money supply, and deflation, as a decrease. Thus, the money supply is said to be either growing (inflating) or shrinking (deflating).

But there is a problem. The definitions for inflation and deflation contain a false assumption: that the money supply is a measurable volume. How do you measure the volume of money supply in dollars?

The dollar is a false weight and measure! The dollar is fraud! How do you measure a volume of a changing measure (dollars) and by what do you measure it? Do you measure the total number of dollars, or the value of the total number of dollars? I think the latter is better. And how do you measure the value? To measure a changing measure's value, we must use a monetary measure that is constant, such as gold.

The government does have several measures of the number of dollars that exist in the banking world, and one of their best measures of this money supply is M3. Current link to M3 statistics: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current

What if the value of each dollar goes down (deflation) much faster than the rate at which they create more of them (inflation)? I think that's called hyperinflation, and that's what's been happening for over two years now, and I'll show you how to see that and measure it.

For the purposes of this essay, I will look at the value of M3 against the dollar price of gold at the time, because gold is money.

In the table below, I'm dividing M3 into the gold price at the time, to see how much gold the money supply is worth in "gold value" at each point in time. Read the lines below like this: In June 1998, M3 was 5,711 billion dollars. If you divide that by the gold price at the time of $296/oz., then M3 has a "gold value," or measure, of 19.3 billion ounces.

June 1998: M3 5,711 billion / gold price $296/oz. = 19.3 (billion oz. gold value)
June 1999: M3 6,221 billion / gold price $260/oz. = 23.9 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2000: M3 6,809 billion / gold price $288/oz. = 23.6 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2001: M3 7,628 billion / gold price $270/oz. = 28.2 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2002: M3 8,178 billion / gold price $318/oz. = 25.7 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2003: M3 8,761 billion / gold price $345/oz. = 25.4 (billion oz. gold value)
Sept. 2003: M3 8,909 billion / gold price $390/oz. = 22.8 (billion oz. gold value)

The last number on the far right of the equation is the number of ounces of gold that M3 can "buy in theory". It's a measure of the value of the money.

Note: the year 2001 was the pivotal year when things changed.

Druid: Goldendome to add too and hopefully not take away from your great post, I thought this was relevant as I've always asked how do you measure a dollar?

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1068132240000Snip:

BRUSSELS (MktNews) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said
Thursday Moscow is ready to work with the EU to examine mechanisms to
start trading oil and gas products in euros.

Speaking at a press conference in Rome after an EU-Russia summit,
Putin said, "If our European colleagues are able to put together a
relevant system, we stand ready to work with the euro with regards to
gas and oil. This will require joint efforts."

He added, "It's not depending on us alone."

Putin also stressed it might "raise some problems" for the
world economy to move away from trading oil in dollars.

European Commission President Romano Prodi said that with the
expansion of the EU from 15 to 25 members next year "naturally it will
be more convenient for imports and exports to be denominated in the same
currency to avoid currency risks."
..........................
A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of
oil but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and
have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is
already under intense pressure.
*********************
Misetich

Its only a matter of time...tick...tick...tick...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Great post. I hope you will forgive a little effort at clarification. Most timers do their work with tax-deferred accounts, such as IRA's, pension plans and what-not. Timing taxable money in mutual funds gets to be a losing proposition very quickly, because, as you suggest, the extra tax bite will likely more than offset the usually small benefit which comes with timing.

Why is the benefit small? Well, as you suggest, nobody really times very successfully for very long. But also, remember, tax code severely limits how much one can deduct when his timing is off and he loses money. Remember, there is no limit to the gains for which he is taxed. No intelligent money manager wants to expose his client to odds as bad as this, not if he wants to keep him, anyway.

Another point: Timing is only unlawful when it is done in a fund which tells other investors they cannot do it. This is simply a question of fairness. If the fund prospectus permits timing by all shareholders, then there is no problem.

Finally, there is the practice of timing after the market closes and yet getting the pre-close price. This enables the timer to essentially hear bad news, which sometimes comes right after the close, and then sell at a price which is no longer available to anybody else. This little perquisite comes right out of the pockets of the other shareholders and constitutes outright theft.

Thanks.

Think I've finally figured out just why Greenspan is against regulating the derivatives market.

There's an old addage in the markets that when stocks turn a deaf ear to bad news, buy. The result is what they tend to call the phenomenum of markets that climb a wall of worry. . . but. . . .

The US, from government down to welfare recipients (in the macro sense) are up to their armpits or better in debt, and we can't borrow or consume our way to a recovery on more.

California is the sixth largest economy in the world, bankrupt before the fires, and going downhill fast.

The automobile industry (the largest employer in the country on a vertical integrated basis) has peaked and will have at least a 3 year downturn. . .

The banks are pulling in their horns - easy money is gone (in that they aren't just financing anyone who can fog a mirror) - that's fact as I deal with it every hour of the day . . .

The housing refi market is on it's last legs, cause even if someone about as smart as the collective genious' in the FED try to lower short term rates, long term will still rise on inflation fears.

Even if rates stay stable, for a recovery WE HAVE TO INCREASE CURRENT RATES OF SALES, so what is the incentive for home buyers to trade up. . . .where we have been getting the increase is people using the drop in rates to trade up for the same PAYMENT!. So what's left that will not only increase sales, but maintain the momentum of what's transpired? NOTHING!!!!

When oil was in the 20's, it was thought that we had to be able to get it back into the low to mid teens to continue to expand. . . . now we're in the low 30's, and we are on the verge of recovery. . . I don't think so.

Does anyone think China has our best interest at heart? About the same as a pusher to a junkie, and our junk is credit and consumption.

So, least I degress, this wall of worry the markets are climbing is pretty much unscaleable, with PE ratios as high or higher than at the top. So why does it not go down? Well it will, as soon as the program traders quit jumping thru hoops after the futures markets (derivatives) are goosed by the same people writing script for CNBC, or until the mutual funds have to quit "timing" the market - there's more to this subject, but think about whose money may have been used to keep these markets propped up, and how. Hedge funds are'nt that stupid, and the money they invest is money owned by individuals who don't gamble or buy dead horses, but have been know to ruin careers at a minimum, or worse.

Or, as soon as our enemies figure we have spun on the spit long enough (I figure we're medium rare right now, so dinner may be served about anytime).

Gold's acting different over the past few months. The dips are being bought with purpose, the junior gold stocks and no names are starting to get bids and volume, while the general stock market is getting less and less advancers and most technicals are turning negative.

With rates having bottomed (and starting to rise), the economy on life support, there is going to be a rather large pool of cash that is going top be looking for a home, and when it starts, it will roll real fast. It appears to me, with the way gold is acting, there a lot of stealth money betting that PM's are going to get MORE than their fair share. . .

Need any more good reasons to be buying MORE physical gold and silver? It's also time to start looking at rolling paper gold into the tangible stuff. All paper has gone from somewhere between speculative and investment, down to gambling and at best speculation- in other words if it isn't shiney, heavy and in your control, you just might lose it.

Pizz

PS, and don't ignore silver. Gold's going to get so expensive, all it will be good for is wealth (nice problem and I'm glad I'll have to deal with it), but when the fiat value of gold is irrevalent cause no one will sell, our little buddy silver is going to have a field day.

(Hey Rich, going to be quite nice buying a weeks worth of groceries for a silver eagle and waiting for change, isn't it??? (smile).

Good evening Sir Druid. Yes, HOW do we measure a dollar? I would say there is no accurate measurement anymore; not since gold was demonitized, with nothing taking it's place as a stable asset to weigh or measure value upon. Not in the way for example, we say that 12 inches make up one foot, or that 32 ounces equal a quart. A standard of measure that is constant and consistent. All of these modern currencies float around each other like balloons in the wind; sometimes up--sometimes down, but always on the move against one another, or against any other commodity for that matter. There is no real measure anymore, just full faith and credit, confidence or no-confidence, and the resulting relationships in price.

The dollar used to be a known measure; a very well known measure. 24.75 grains of gold or 371.25 grains of silver were a "Dollar" when U.S. coinage was established in 1792. By dividing grains silver by grains gold we come to the first silver/gold ratio of 15/1.

Adjustments over the years changed that from time to time. The unfortunate mistake made at the time of the first readjustment to the silver/gold ratio in 1834 was, that to bring the mint ratio more into line with the open market ratio of the two metals (16/1), the congress could either increase the amount of the less expensive metal (silver)needed to equal a dollar, or they could decrease the amount of the more expensive open market metal (gold) in coins needed to make a dollar. Unfortunately, they chose the latter course, dropping the gold content to 23.2 grains/dollar while holding the silver amount steady at 371.25 grains. In effect, debasing the Gold coins of the United States by 6.2%.

If the standard of measurement sometimes changed in the old days, at least there WAS a standard over periods of time. Not like today where the dollar bobs up and down like a cork on the end of a fishing line.

Nice speaking with you.

Gdome.

Sir Druid: I should have added the effect of debasing the gold coinage by 6.2% in 1834, was to begin the removal of silver from the circulating coinage of the United States. Besides, they also got the ratio wrong. It should have been adjusted to about 15.5/1 (matching Europe) and thus inhibiting bullion flows based on arbitrage, rather than the 16.1 new ratio which made Silver now the slightly more expensive metal for monetary purposes...and you remember Gresham's law? What is going to happen when two metals are given the same monetary value, but one buys more of the other on the open market? Answer: The same thing that happened to pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and halves. They disappeared from circulation. -------Gdome

No, I'm not saying that silver would buy more gold (one unit per one unit), but based on the silver gold/ ratio, of 16 to 1, Silver became the more valuable metal outside the realm of monetary circulation. Hope I cleared that up. ---Gdome

http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2003/11/06/06181908_bod.shtml

Putin: Russia and EU should act together
Only acting together can Russia and the European Union influence the building of new world order and the system of common values and interests, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a Russia-EU summit in Rome Thursday.
In Mr. Putin's opinion, Russian-EU cooperation needs "practical, flexible and effective dialog at all levels", aimed at achieving concrete results and the real settlement of problems hampering successful cooperation, the Presidential Press Service reports.

At a time of important changes in Europe and in the whole world, "we must not use outdated models of cooperation", the Russian President said. "The coordination of our actions will determine how strong the voice of Europe will be in the global politics, economy, trade and the security issues," he stressed.

Mr. Putin also recalled that a strategic decision had been made at the St. Petersburg summit to create four common spaces in the spheres of economy, internal security, external security and science, education and culture. For his part, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said an additional impetus should be given to the Russian-EU relations.
snip---------------------

Change is certain or does it just go round, again and again.
We simply live in more recent time period. After all Russia and the majority of its' population reside in Europe.

Must watch this Ruskie bear as it spans 11 or 12 time zones. Sits on a mass of rich and varied natural resources. Who would not entertain a dance or two with a bear and court all that natural wealth.

Yes, even move towards new models of cooperation and I suppose its financial instruments, can you say EUROs

Cheers "S"

http://www.coastalpost.com/03/11/12.htmSome disturbing I might add.

I don't know what to make of this, but IF such a two-teired system is contemplated, it may just be for the exact opposite reason Mr. Droke has presented. Consider all the trillions of greenbacks in circ outside the US (an unknown portion of which are counterfeit anyway) and the very small number of peachy keen notes that would be needed to sustain the domestic commerce. Which of these two batches of bills is most likely to become banana republic cash? Especially IF the US itself will not allow its return to our shores, what will become of all those greenbacks?

People outside the U.S. will simply digitize their cash with a deposit. Cross the pond and go to the nearest ATM for retrieval of the new bills. Works the same way in reverse!!
Cyberbat

An Internal and an external dollar not exchangeable for Americans (exchange controls)? Wich dollar will carry the exchange rate against non dollar currencies and Gold ? Will there be a fictive exchange rate between the internal (pink) or external dollar (green) ?
Wich dollar will be used to pay for US imports ? I have no knowledge of such a system having existed before. Is this comparable with the (chinese) system of share categories A (chinese) and B (foreigners) (yuan-rinmimbi) ?
Is this two tier system (?) a maneuver to escape US internal dollar-price-hyperinflation and leave the world on its own in managing the circulating outside dollar-reserve ?
Is this "the" signal that all dollars(greenbacks) outside the US are to become worthless and need to be compensated by Freegold ?
Why is this supposed rumor of a two tier system not causing more alarmist widespread reactions ??? Or is this a hoax ?

A few weeks this forum ran round the rosie regarding this Cliff Droke piece, to the point where MK had to step in and provide accurate information on the mechanics of gold ownership. Read MK's book if you need accurate details on gold, taxation, confiscation, etc.

Much of what the Cliff Droke piece says is not accurate, especially with respect to reporting requirements.

After considering this issue in depth, I came to the conclusion that peach notes are not significant in the larger scheme of currency machinations. It's just an anti-counterfeiting measure, of which there have been many before.

When and if something happens regarding the currency (I mean the govt taking matters into its own hands), it will be sudden and overnight, and unless you've made preparations in advance (gold, shifting assets overseas, shifting to other currencies, etc.), you will be left holding the bag. That's usually how forced currency devaluations happen (think Argentino, Mexico).

I know many with conspiratorial leanings will disagree with me, but for the most part, I don't think the govt is capable of thinking THAT far ahead. They are just struggling with keeping a brave face and deluding the public, until such time as their transparent scheme unavoidably unravels, as do all fiat schemes. You see how Greenspan struggled to put a brave face on the current picture. And you see how Bernanke, in his recent speech, gave every reason but the real one for why employment isn't picking up now and isn't going to anytime soon: jobs offshoring to China and India.

Notice how Snow recently backtracked to the London Financial Times on his earlier promise of 2 million jobs!

Hmmm...let's see if I've got this straight - financial markets are wildly excited about these numbers even if they show that the rate of job creation is actually slowing MoM (from 160k to 126k) and this 126k number is inflated by 13k due to Californian retailers hiring temporary staff to deal with the strike/lockout there. Main job growth areas seem to be waiting on tables, temporary help and doctors' receptionists. Wow! This recovery must be for real!

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October to 130.1 million,
seasonally adjusted. This followed increases totaling 160,000 in August and
September (as revised). During the February-July period, payroll employment
had decreased by an average of 85,000 per month. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 43,000 jobs in October, following
an increase of 70,000 in September. Professional and technical services con-
tributed over half of the job gain (24,000) in October, with its management
and technical consulting services component adding 7,000 jobs. Within admini-
strative and support services, employment in temporary help services continued
to trend up in October. Since April, temporary help has added 150,000 jobs.

Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 34,000 over the
month and by 255,000 over the year. In October, ambulatory health care
services added 18,000 jobs, with about half the gain in offices of
physicians. Social assistance added 8,000 jobs in October, largely in
child day care services. Employment in private educational services grew
by 23,000, seasonally adjusted. Job gains over the last 3 months have
more than offset declines that occurred in June and July. Over the year,
employment in private education grew by 56,000.

Within retail trade, employment in food stores rose by 13,000 in October,
reflecting the hiring of additional workers in anticipation of strikes. Since
April 2000, however, employment in food stores has trended down.

Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food services and drinking
places added 23,000 jobs in October, following a gain of 20,000 in
September. Restaurant employment has increased by 113,000 over the year.

Employment in construction was little changed in October. Since February,
the industry has added 147,000 jobs. In the financial sector, employment in
credit intermediation, which includes mortgage banking, fell by 10,000, re-
flecting the decline in mortgage refinancing activity.

Manufacturing employment decreased by 24,000 in October, with small
losses distributed throughout most of the sector. Factory job losses in
September and October averaged 26,000, well below the 53,000 average for
the prior 12 months.

After a small increase in September, employment in air transportation
was down over the month. Since reaching its most recent peak in March
2001, the industry has lost 138,000 jobs.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour over the month to 33.8 hours, season-
ally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek and manufacturing overtime were
unchanged from September, at 40.5 hours and 4.2 hours, respectively. (See
table B-2.)

- 4 -

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.4 percent to 99.1 in October
(2002=100). The manufacturing index fell by 0.2 percent over the month to
94.3. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 1 cent over the month to $15.46, seasonally ad-
justed. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent in October to $522.55.
Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings increased by 2.4 per-
cent. (See table B-3.)

______________________________

The Employment Situation for November 2003 is scheduled to be released on
Friday, December 5, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

China Ups Gold Reserves.
Three "Big" Bears.

I recall reading, three or more decades ago that the rulers had plans for changing the worlds� currencies to a three- unit system. One block would encompass the Americas, one Europe and Russia, and one for Asia. Have not seen that theory in print lately even though things appear to be heading in that direction (at least in Europe). Any thoughts?

After this morning's job figures, I was expecting a week or so of scratching my head, so I'm pleasantly surprised that the Mighty Euro (new Trichet flavor) is proving to be spinproof. Another cent and we have a turnaround and are on our way to glory. Fingers crossed!

Nothing wrong with your thinking, and same thoughts have crossed my mind lately.

I also haven't seen anyone connect the dots over the Russian oil situation. Seems I read somewhere that a few months back Bush SR. was in Russia on oil issues, then Russia waives the ol for Euro's threat, then the head of their industry gets arrested (could he have been cutting a deal with US that was not part of the Kremblin's plan?), and now the Russia - Europe oil connection seems to be on the front burner again.

Ties in with the three currency plan also, but we would still have the Yuan/Islamic Dinar issue to deal with for a third - maybe four currency blocks?

Interesting. . . .

Pizz

The employment figures (Ho Hum) seemed to have a very fleeting effect this morning. Perhaps the huge backward revisons are beginning to be suspect. An analyst on CNBC this morning noted that we need to create 130K jobs per month for a number of months consecutively to dent the UNemployment figures.

Gold dropped quickly to $377 and exhibited a strong opportunity to someone as it it quickly regained a positive posture. The Dx is falling again, so the news must not be particularly inspiring.

Good points about Russia and oil.

It has been a long time since I read the currency block info. Do not recall if it was in a far "left" or far "right" publication. In either case they may have been on to something. As has been pointed out here by many posters, the dollar must fall as a world reserve currency�(appears propped up primarily by Japan and China).


Kissinger's trade deal with China at the time Nixon defaulted on gold payments very likely was part of the plan to extend the dollar's time line. (US to build up China's manufacturing base in exchange for rotation of U.S. Consumers trade dollars back into U.S. bonds

Perhaps inflammatory, but the Treasury's motivations are quite worthy of examination. As a huge percentage of all dollars exist electronically, the excuse of anti-counterfeiting measures doesn't really wash. Two-tiered currency suspicions are possible, but not yet explored sufficiently to be assured. Trackability of currency transactions (anti-contraband, tax avoidance, and cross-border asset smuggling come to mind) is probably important in the major acheme of things.

Two important questions goldbugs should investigate and resolve are:
1) How, if at all, will this affect expatriated wealth accumulation?
2) Does this action possibly portend any new restrictions in PM ownership and accumulation?

Although theories abound, and most are unlikely, we would be imprudent to assume that some related change is not in the realm of possibilities.

I think that in the early 1990's, the Treasury department looked at the advance of "personal printing" technology and decided that it was time to have a systematic upgrade to the currency. I think they plan to have new bills every 4-6 years. First it was the "big portrait" bills, next the crayon colors. I'm sure they have a team working on the next few generations. This is a natural response to make it harder for a few teenages to make some money to afford a trip to the movies each weekend.

I do not believe there is any plan to divide the world into different colors of US money. In a flash someone could air-freight a crate to Hong Kong with a huge number of peach colored $100 bills, when these bills become available.

Lets worry about other issues, like why the US is moving a few hundred bombers from the west coast to the middle east this week. Perhaps they are finally going to take out the "super bill" makers in the Bekaa valley of Syrian controlled Lebanon that are using the printing presses the CIA gave as a present to the Shah and now are in the hands of Hizbollah. You see, it is all about preventing couterfeiting.

@White Rose-

A few hundred bombers to do a job best suited to a well placed hand grenade. Sounds like Sir AG is creating military policy, as well!

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm
Morning thoughts, Dave Lewis @ Chaos

Snip> "specifically I'd like to spend today speculating on the differences between a dollar standard and a gold standard with two aims in mind: 1) to explain one source of economic confusion, the application of gold standard language to a fiat standard system, 2) to apply the notion of an event horizon between two conditional states to the current economic environment"

"In the equilibrium state which is formed under a gold standard monetary system, inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin. Inflation occurs on the upcycle and deflation follows on the downcycle. The solutions to either problem were time, so long as one held to the convertibility standard, the long term general price level would remain stable."



A good read from Dave today.

1. While Droke's technical work is impressive, he positions himself towards the extreme end of the conspiracy theory spectrum and seems to be obsessed with the idea that the US Govt/NWO/Illuminati are preparing a Nazi-style regime of repression and terror for its inhabitants - a gold confiscation piece is thus about par for the course from him.

2. I think the whole issue of whether or not Russia prices gold in euros or not is a red herring/piece of public relations. I have heard on good authority from a large oil producing company that if a customer of a large producer nation wants to buy oil in Euros, it takes nothing more than a stroke of the lawyer's pen - 'e.g. outstanding invoices will be settled in U.S. dollars or in any recognized currency that may be agreed between the contracting parties from time to time.'

You've no doubt heard the anecdote about Putin telling Bush over dinner that the Russians were very concerned about conservation and thus have special vets who surgically remove caviar from sturgeon and then suture the fish and return them to the Caspian. This story, plus the Debka story about the wonderful new oil terminal at Murmansk are probably about on the same level as the stitched-up sturgeon.

3. Note the big intraday turnaround in the Euro - spin is not dead yet, but in bad shape.

Soc, et al -

I don't disagree with your analysis of Droke's work, but I am very interested in alternative explanations, of which there seem to be none which include any comprehensive analysis. While I don't subscribe to the worst case conspiracy theories, I also don't care much for the "head in the sand" fluff responses akin to Heckle and Jeckle market analysis.

A reasonable analysis will probably find motivations somewhere in the twixt region between fluff and fanaticism.

Near the high of the day.

Looks like the rise today was pretty much a result of the dollar swoon (in spite of the massaged unemployment numbers).

don't forget that isn't it true that when you're talking about money supply, only 5% is in physical form--consequently, perhaps one could say that the peach color change isn't significant.

I think it was Christie's Auctions in N.Y. just sold a piece of canvas with paint on it, for TWO TONS OF SOLID, PURE GOLD! One of those "treasures" of "art" by Modigliani. ($27 million US)

Another example of money being thrown away recklessly, was the sale for over $8 million US of a bronze as ugly as sin, by Giacometti. This junk is supposed to be art.

This is inflation taking hold, with a vengeance. What we may be getting pretty soon now, is the world-wide "crack-up boom" where there is a generalized frenzy of speculation, preceding the collapse. I read and hear (in Rome) of the pickup in the economies of Japan, Europe, and the US. Thanks, I would say, to calamitous excess in credit creation in the U.S.

Another sign that world inflation is taking hold, is the general trend for rising interest rates. When this trend is firmly in place (just beginning, now) then there will be no stopping rising interest rates.

As I say, we may be on the verge of the "crack-up boom", that frenzied "prosperity" characterized by reckless speculation, on a world scale.

On another note, yes, when inflation is firmly in the saddle, then the value of money can fall faster than it is actually being created. So, there can be an apparent "scarcity of money" in the very midst of uncontrolled expansion of money. (See works of L. von Mises. "Theory of Money and Credit".)

Another note: if bombers are being sent to M.E. at this point, then PERHAPS the expansion of this crazy war in Iraq will take place soon, by bombing Syria and Iran. More madness to cover previous madness.

From Rome: this Rumsfeld character appears amazingly incompetent. This is the guy that wants mini-nukes? Lord Save Us!

I hope some here, were able to take advantage of the excellent low prices of gold available this past week.

Have a good weekend, all!

The GAB

Tick, tock.

Tick, tock.

PA

Another quasi bullish where is the beef report.

Still losing solid manufacturing jobs and replacing them with Wmart Clerks and resteraunt workers.

Meanwhile, the Challenger Folks revealed that planned layoffs spiked this month.

The dumb asses need to drop that dollar BEFORE they applied that massive stimulus. The wealth of the US is being exported. Its nuts!

Fair enough, but I think the confiscation theorists are leading you up the garden path - the point being that in an extreme situation, the problem that governments face is not stubborn faith in gold, but total lack of faith in the national currency. When this happens, most of the funds are either going abroad, or into real estate, equities or tangible big-ticket goods like cars/jewellery. Gold is an extremely marginal investment. If you are genuinely concerned about this, I'd recommend holding your gold in a gold-friendly country like Switzerland or Luxembourg.

I can tell you that I have already lived through a near total freeze on bank deposits (Brazil 1990) by a president who consorted with known criminals and who was subsequently impeached. The regime didn't confiscate gold (but put a 15% tax on it - as I recall), nor did they ever make it illegal to possess foreign currency. Nor did they confiscate gold in Argentina last year.

Again, comments about a peach-coloured dollar heralding a parallel currency regime are pure hysteria. China did this in the 70s and 80s, with the aim of rationing imports and making the locals consume domestic goods (doesn�'t really apply to the US, does it?). The Chinese quietly phased these out in 1995.

...in addition, many countries change their banknotes regularly without anyone suggesting that the nation's wealth is at stake.

GAB - I won't argue with your views on modern art (let's just beg to differ)- except to say that if I had to flee the country in a hurry with one suitcase, I'd rather have the Modigliani than 2t of gold, purely on volume/weight grounds.

I've followed the evolution of US printed currency for quite some time now. The New peach-colored notes are, in my opinion, just another anti-counterfeiting step in a series of many.

However, can ANYONE here confirm a report that international travellers are not being allowed to take the new $20 bills out of the country, or bring old $20 bills into the country ?

If this is true, then that would carry some other heavy implications. Most likely that the new printed currency is part of a plan to hinder international drug traffic and money laundering.

The gold confiscation scare could be a "plant" by some entity that doesn't want higher gold prices ! Gold confiscation might benefit bullion banks who have shorted gold at low prices, but it wouldn't help an ailing currency.

If the US dollar starts to crumble, the attempted confiscation of gold will not save it ! The amount of gold that would be needed to provide gold backing for all those dollars out there would astronomical ! The amount of gold obtained by any confiscation would be only a single drop in a big empty bucket.

The closest the US dollar has ever come to a total meltdown was 1980. Look what they (the government) did then. They would do the same thing this time. The current perilous condition of the real estate market and consumer finances would dictate, however, that they wouldn't be able to raise interest rates as fast as they did in the early 1980s.

Any attempted gold confiscation would mean a total capitulation by the forces trying to keep the dollar strong vs. gold. Esentially, they would at last be admitting that gold, not dollars, is the ultimate store of wealth. This would totally destroy any shred of remaining confidence in the dollar.

The result would be a meteoric rise in gold prices (as measured in US dollars), and a thriving (untaxed) black market. The government would loose tax revenue and it could loose control over the economy.

In other words, I believe that the govenment has a lot more to loose by attempting to confiscate gold than it could possibly gain by doing so.

Just as I submitted my last post, a song by "Bad Company" came on the radio:

"give me silver, blue, and gold"

Even the new paper money isn't blue.
(But the old true "Silver Certificates" had blue seals and serial numbers).

I totaly agree with all of your points.
I was going to address his article but you said everything I was going to say...

I was going to post this a couple of weeks ago, but the topic had (mercifully !) gone quiet again.

I can report that a family member left the US about three weeks ago, and re-entered a week ago. On neither exit nor entrance was anything even mentioned about the new notes. I like a 'good' conspiracy as much as anyone else but this doesn't ring true in any shape or form (as others have pointed out earlier).

The only thing that I hope for with the upcoming $50 and $100 (have the smaller denominations been left alone ?) is that they actually look readily different from each other colorwise, and appear to have been designed in the 21st rather than the 19th century. But whatever, they will still burn as well.

C!

PS. Just had another thought for the suspicious of mind. In view of the widespread use of banknotes in the partaking of a certain white powder (I can't remember the statistic, but it was something like one in three notes was found to be impregnated), supposing these new notes react with said powder in a 'nasty' manner ? Another weapon in the War on Drugs ! (No, I won't be asking anyone for their personal experiences with the new note .....)

Soc, et al,

I'm just amazed that everyone addressing the question is either touting some totally unfounded opinion or responding with a comparison to some past situation. All I asked was whether or not anyone had any evidence about CURRENT motivations. It seems that the answer is NO so far. When major transactiions all occur electronically, it's difficult to believe that the government would spend $33M advertising a new bill to thwart loonies with Xerox machines.

Thanks for debunking the new $20 bill international transfer rumor.

Goldilox,
The only motivation that I have heard of for the new $20 bills (except for Droke's article) is that it is an anti-counterfeiting measure.

Spending $33 million to try and thwart a few Xerox counterfeiters is exactly the sort of thing the government would do ! Hindering counterfeits is a component of the so-called "strong dollar policy" (the Treasury Secretary said so himself !). In fact, it is about the only thing left of the "strong dollar policy". The actual amount of couterfeiting is of secondary importance. What they really want is for foreigners to have confidence that the currency is not widely counterfeited. Of course, people might soon notice that government printing presses are running around the clock ...

On another rumor, can anyone here confirm or disprove the rumor I posted the other day. Namely, that a deal was worked out between the EPA, US Mint, etc. so that an Idaho silver mine would supply cheap (underpriced) silver to the US Mint in exchange for not having to clean up the mine site to current EPA standards ?

On another rumor, can anyone here confirm or disprove the rumor I posted the other day. Namely, that a deal was worked out between the EPA, US Mint, etc. so that an Idaho silver mine would supply cheap (underpriced) silver to the US Mint in exchange for not having to clean up the mine site to current EPA standards ?
===
TOTALLY bogus !
But, because of your previous HOME-RUN on the Eagles, I did not wish to jump on your error of even believing that one !
<;-)

Does anyone know the what the soviet acronym "KGB" stood for and it's english translation?

Heard rumors that it was similar to Department of Homeland Security in meaning or translation. Just curious if any of our Eurpoean friends could confirm or deny for a stupid American.

Take care all.

PA

A little OFF SUBJECT !!
just do a search on "KGB"
you will get all you need, EXCEPT GOLD !
<;-(

Since the contention of the Federal Reserve and Govt. is that the new fiat is primarily for the purpose of stemming future counterfeiting, but in the same breath, stating that the "old bills will still be good -- forever", then just what is the point? The counterfeiters just keep making the same "old" bills and passing them right along with the "real" new ones. Government thinking in-action ?

@Paper Avalanche.Took a little Russian in school years ago.

K=Komitet-->Committee
G=Gosudarstvbennoi-->of Government(or State)
B=Bezopasnosti-->Security

Pretty close to Department of Homeland Security at that!

I posted a question a few days ago about availability of
Silver Eagles. I became curious due to an add in the back of a popular American outdoors/hunting magazine that stated Silver Eagles would not be minted after 2003. Thanks for the discussion.

Now I am reading an add from a different company, same magazine stating Gold Eagles will not be available after 2003. Both companies are in the business of selling Eagles.

Sorry I won't provide a link due to respect for our host. But surely we know more about this??? Or???

testing

silvester dont sweat it if that co dont have them our gracious host will. the worry you express is unfounded dont sweat it, as there will always be eagles available just not always at these prices nor necessarily in this fiat script but if you want 0ne bad enough you will be able to find one or heck just call usagold and they will take care of you no problem.

testing! A friend of mine brought me a newsletter from her brokers office because she knows of my interest in Gold. It is the SILVER @ GOLD REPORT of late DECEMBER 1979. The report is of an interview by SGR of world currency authority Dr. Franz Pick.

I am going to quote just a few of his comments because of there importance of the time. The question to the forum will be: Was he right? wrong? or was his timing 23 years off?

Pick: American currency policy since 1940 has been nothing but an unbroken series of flos. By the end of Octoberr 1979 the unofficial purchasingg power of the greenback had shrunk from 100 cents to only seven cents. This destruction and irreversible rise in the cost of living has been hidden by a deliberate lie called the Consumer Price Index. Most of who own imaginary paper assets, including cabinet members, presidents of blue chip corporations, and pension fund maagers, do not want to know about the decomposition of what they believe they own. So you see, I have little hope that Mr. Volker will be able to singlehandedly correct such a bad situation.

SGR: Why do you call the Consumer Price Index a "deliberate lie?"

Pick: The debasement of statistics is as much a part of the whole scheme as the debasement of the currency. How many people know that the CPI has been periodically and systematically falsified since 1947, as a result of the gigantic creation of additional banknotes and bond issues that began in 1940?
The undisputed domination of the United
states overt the IMF has also led this oranization to adopt a similar system for its statistical publications., which has changed the base for its cost of living data six times since 1948. But nobody wants to know about this. The general public, along with the generally inintelligent investor. must be kept ignorant of their willingness to lose most of their assets. The press, radio and television constantly babble about inflation, but they do not analyze the problem in terms of constant dollars. It is nothing butna massive self-deception.

SGR: For the benefit of our newer readers, Dr. Pick, would you discuss "constant dollars?"

Pick: The idea of a balance sheet in constant dollars is nothing new. I rises as a necessity whenever a currency loses its value. The man who calls himself an z'investor," the completely immoral so-called :securities analyst," the administrator and operator of mutual or pension funds, the corporate president-all bear responibilty for cheating the public, and, which is even more tragic, for cheating themselves. They do not want to acknoledge that between 1940 and 1979, by offical government figures, the US dollar lost 81% of its domestic purchasing poweer. the Swiss franc 78%, the British pound 95% , the French franc 99%.

Austria, Germany and Hungary in 1920, France in 1922, and Czechoslovakia and Italy in 1923 adopted constant-dollar balance sheet methods. Large companies has to have some means of analyzing the real value of profits. All of these countries created excellent lawa that filled volmes, whose purpose was not only the adoption of figures to new currencies, but also involving taxes, rents, debts and liabilities.

Whitehills: I will in the future post what Dr. Pick says about Currency reform: events that could lead to radical currency reforms, Confiscation of gold. All of this of course is from the past but from everything I have read he is only 23 yrs off in his timing. It would be interesting to know what happened in 1980 than side-tracked Dr. Picks predictions. We still are going through what he predicted in 1979. White Hills

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/Methinks somebody earned himself a cold beer on this one. Methinks that somebody is... me. Cheers.

We work hard so you don't have to! Holiday shopping was just made easy, boys! (I don't know about you, but if I never step into another mall at this time of year, I assure you, it would be too soon for me).

R.

Dr. Pick was a Master -- a route to astute, practical, hands-on understanding. Many of us learned our economics on the knee of people like Pick, Hayek and Mises. Once you get it, it's hard to take the analysis spoon fed the public from lesser souls -- souls tied to a political agenda (left or right) lacking anything close to the intellectual integrity of individuals just mentioned. That type of commitment to excellence is precisely what is missing in the West today and sorely at the root of what ails Western civilization -- including its political accoutrements. Instead of the pseudo-intellectual clap-trap being fed today's liberal arts and business students at most, if not all, the major universities, one book -- "The Road to Serfdom" by Professor von Hayek -- in sum total would do more to map an understanding and basis for a rational modern economics than all the nonsense published willy-nilly by the modern eco-political establishment. And I've already said more than I should have for one evening............ Happy weekend to all.........

Actually, I didn't BELIEVE the rumor, I just listened to it :)

I'm the skeptical type and would need concrete confirmation before assuming something like that was true.

But how do you know it is false ?

As a former longtime GS-15 in Washington, D.C. in that Federal origanization, specifically doing that type of effort, and as a major shareholder in the other company of which you speak, I know that things are not done that way, AND, also the company does not need that "favor".
OK ?
<;-)

Hmmm, the 'Underhill Consstruction' ssigns are gone. Another room... what have we here?
...
...
...

Town Crier, nice work, yess, very nice! One beer, eh? Sss...you are too easy! A case at leasst, for thirssty Crier! MY, O Precious look at all the glittering golden things!!

S.

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/YES indeed Sir Townie !
Have one on me too.
BEAUTIFUL !!
<;-)

Druid: TownCrier, Great! Job. What a wonderful selection to choose from. You have both simplified (I have about as much love for malls as I do for bullion bankers) and complicated (beautiful choices) my life all at one time. I'm already making a list.

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/tools/logor300x60.gifOf the 1,500 items, I think it is this ring, alone, that he has half a mind for. (The other half, of course, would be on fish).

R.

Why all of the chatter and apparent concern these past few days over whether or not the U.S. is going to continue or is not going to continue to produce the Silver and Gold Eagles? Who the heck really cares?? Even if they were both discontinued, there is no implication in market values that Au or Ag are becoming un-attainable--at this time, anyway. If you want Gold, buy some. If you want silver, buy some of that. There's still plenty of it about...and those type of bullion coins are certainly nothing special, so just buy some gold or silver if you're really interested in it...any date.

Excellent job, Townie!

MK, good thing it's Friday, as it sounds like half your staff is preparing for a bender tonight!!

We knew it, we knew it! That Wizard's eye is worse than the curse of the lure of a Ring! Smeagol will jusst have to be a little 'sneakier' next time (great big grin).

The ones called Byzantine chains, they are beautiful, we like those the best. Much better around the neck than Elf-rope, gahh!

S.

@ Town Crier,
O yess, one hand full of It, a good Ale in the other, and a mouth full of fissh! What could be better?

S.

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
I just dropped in to say hello and read the forum to keep up to date (I have a lot to catch up on). I should be back by mid-week next week as weather has slowed some progress on a couple of projects � wouldn't you know it we had a blizzard and extremely cold temperatures in Wyoming these last few days. It is rather early for this kind of weather too.

I was amused at the news of the unemployment data today and yesterday. I would venture a guess much of the "job creation" has more to do with temporary employment for hopes of a decent holiday season and few people who had well paying jobs are just taking any work they can find (much in the business and service sectors) at lower pay. It should be noted that there had been some changes in the methodology of data collection and calculation at the BLS in recent months (I had commented on this previously). Note that manufacturing continues to lose jobs at a nice clip though.


specie-man - usagold.com msg#: 111450:

I believe that you may be referring to the Northern Idaho silver production region where the EPA had requested (demanded) all silver producing records of minerals in the region as part of a Bruce Babbitt inspired process (along with some environmental cleanup plans and a lot of extortion). The problem of course is that most of the companies simply do not exist anymore and the records demanded were from the mid 1800's. Another point missed by many is that mining was required and demanded by the US government without regard to environmental issues for well over 100 years and especially for the war effort (especially during WWII). What little mining that has survived to today is done within EPA requirements and the "sins of the past" were done at the behest of the very government that is extorting from these small companies that did not exist at the time. Similar efforts are (or were) pursued against miners in other regions of the country as well. In the early days of course environmental issues were never considered and that is a legacy of the expansion of the west (Manifest Destiny) and the demand for energy for a growing and developing nation that emerged into a Super Power. Mining today is nothing like the old days. When I started out I was an underground hard rock miner for the now defunct Anaconda Copper Corp. I was one of those who drilled the face of a drift with a jack-leg drill or worked in the stopes and shafts. It has changed a lot since those days in the early 1970's. Anyway, those companies are long gone but no one denies there are a lot of changes in how mines operate now and the new methods are more "environment friendly" and it is still evolving.


MK's Gold Market Commentary:

Very interesting reading indeed! A good series of articles I have copied for reading during the slow periods I will have to sit through in the next couple of days though I will be on the road still. Especially the Chinese gold consumption article - definitely read this one at the link! I have hammered away at this consistently in the DMR (hopefully to be expanded in in a few days). It has been rumored for quite some time that the Peoples Bank of China has been steadily accumulating gold for reserve diversification. 200 more tons is not hard to believe and I would not be surprised if it was much more. It has been rumored that the Chinese have been big buyers of official gold sales. Even if it is 200 additional tons � that is half the yearly WA gold sales limit. There are 108 licenses (I am working off memory here) issued for retailers for gold in mainland China with perhaps more in the offing. The current retailers are said to have difficulty keeping bullion (coin and bars) in stock where currently sold and waiting lists of interested buyers. When this market is fully liberalized and access more widely available to the 1.3 billion population we should see a heck of a lot of offtake of physical gold by the citizenry.

I have heard a lot of ads on the radio lately about gold as an investment and wealth preservation vehicle. I even heard a short discussion about gold (very pro-gold) on one national syndicated program while on the road. Sorry, but I don't recall who it was, but it was one of the daily conservative talk shows. Hey, maybe it was one of you! Cheers!

- Black Blade

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=300&study=MACD&type=future,index&bartype=bar&year=03&STUDY2=&x=38&symbols=GCZ03.=V&symlist=GC&size=SMALL&varminutes=60&STUDY3=&y=8&month=Z&STUDY0=&STUDY1=&bardensity=LOW&rco=4It was easy to see the CABAL Friday attack start -- BUT look at the DEFENSE and the ROUT that went into the CLOSE !
Like Sir Zhisheng said at the time "UP INTO THE CLOSE" !!
NEXT WEEK should be something GOLDEN to watch.
Hear the clock ticking ?
<;-)
BTW -- GREAT charting webpage !
PS: Welcome HOME BB !!

U.N.I.T. - Unit of National and International Trade; for lack of a better word.

There has been talk of radical changes for the dollar currency of the future. With its reserve status and value on the skids, this recent idea of commodity money could well serve the purposes of the current dollar power structure or any power structure for than matter. It could be dangled in front of some countries of the world producing commodities and/or holding dollar reserves/debt who would be interested in a trade of old depreciating debt units for new appreciating commodity Units. This would be on offer at a variable cost depending on each country's circumstances. The Unit would be the dollar centric player's answer to the reserve dollar fiat experiment somehow gone terribly wrong in years past and finding itself in a future crisis.

In a basket of commodities for international settlement, which gold could be included, the Unit would trade on the sound backing to these stated commodities and the countries producing them. This would also help to maintain gold in the commodity paradigm way of thinking; for only a period of time. Commodity producing countries would welcome the idea and indebted nations could possibly be given some form of debt forgiveness to accept the new Unit or God forbid combined with new loans. Control of some of the world's major oil and gas deposits would be helpful in getting the acquiescence of most concerned.

Using a basket approach would smooth out any bumps due to weather, distribution hic ups, spoilage, etc. As usual the average amount of commodities backing the Unit could be again lent out fractionaly at the 1/10 current practice for investment purposes and paperized to control supposed risk while slowly managing paper inflation. Old habits die hard. None would be the wiser as most people do not understand this mechanism anyway.

Possibly an average or fractional existing amount of each commodity found in the world markets at any given time would represent the Unit. A promise would be given that as the world population increases the monetary/ commodity base would also. This could take the �so called� pressure off of using a defunct and outdated solely gold backed system or a free market in gold. Read sarcasm here and in the next paragraph.

The reason for not having a gold system would be that gold has been unstable in the past as a commodity currency. Just look at the price action recently and back in 1980. When it was fixed to a certain amount of silver as well as at a certain currency amount, these schemes did not work well and is proof of the gold standard's ultimate demise and failure. A basket commodity solution would now be needed and called for.

The Unit is the power structure's solution as opposed to a freer gold market with currencies being marked to market. It's the IMF dollar centric answer to the Euro, Yuan and Islamic dinar currency war. I would not expect any of these dollar block people wanting to go back to a disciplined sort of gold regime when it comes to debt issuance nor would I expect a total collapse of the game to be allowed as the beast is too big to fail. To sell the idea in the beginning they would fiend, for the audience, the virtues of discipline that commodities would provide in an ever increasingly unstable world. An international body could administer the changeover to add legitimacy to the offering.

Reasons for this type of scheme, as opposed to a more honest one, might be to keep the current system from obviously collapsing and to keep dollar holders of debt from going away unhappy. This would also put further control of world commodities under one umbrella in the longer run. I could envision under this type of scheme large corporations taking even larger shares of commodity production and distribution around the world; further globalization. That is if current trends remain the same.

Imagine the increased power the governing body would have in being able to start a brand new hope filled reserve currency experiment at the expense of the little guy commodity producers and the world's workers at large. More control of the issuance of the world Unit to corrupt trade and people in power as well as vicariously corrupting the markets commodities trade in. A continuance of the system on a much larger scale with control of the world's money, food and ultimately finished goods supply. What more could you ask for. Maybe a free market in humble pie and some truth on top.

Time frame for implementation: when gold's �currency behaving� commodity price becomes too much to bare and the dollar is on the ropes, similar to 1978-80. Would it succeed in an environment of a crisis without an existing reserve currency alternative already in place? The sooner the crises the more advantageous before the Euro or any viable alternative could be offered to take root in a meaningful way. Only in a crisis can there be major change to possibly keep the game up and running. Time would be of the essence in this scenario.

I'd take nature's way of a stable free gold wealth market all days of the week because anything else is slavery.

This is just an off the cuff commentary and I'm sure full of more holes than Swiss cheese as opposed to, I hope, the smell of Limburger.

The US (block) will call more hens on deck to continue defending the dollar in the dollar-system. More tax-incentives for those who shift their non-dollar holdings into US$. Dollar-protectionism as a counter-weight against increasing dollar des-interest. Russia (Putin's Russia) comes closer to its Euroland natural neighbour.
The whole Middle East region got a refreshed (PNAC- warning with Bush's latest speach on "democratization". China continues to build on its "fall-back" stratego, once the dollar-defense should weaken.

Trichet made it clear : Euroland wants a strong-stable currency ! The ECB/BIS-system is almost in full control of the dollar's fate. The available dollar-reserves within the ECB/BIS-system can buy or sell more Gold Wealth Reserve Assets, affecting the POG versus the dollar and the euro !!! Both, dollar and euro are valued against Gold by those who have adopted an architecture that enforces their currency with a rising POG, the *NEW* Reserve Asset to replace the dollar-reserve-asset. Note that the French citizens are the biggest individual holders of Physical (under the matrasses) !

Trichet and Duisenberg are ONE !

Euroland is going to support (conditionally though) the American democrats and neutralize the measures that the present administration is taking as to facilitate the re-election of the Bush administration. No dollar-euphoria allowed !?
No Iraqi exit aid !? Increasing economical protectionism from both sides (US-EU).

The euro can evidence its general "stability" through the ECB/BIS-system which holds the leverage on the POG. Most of the dollar-POG action is to be seen on the New York side. When the euro is not pleased with the outcome, the action shifts to Euroland.

Is it my (borrowed) PC or am I seeing things. Price charts at INO and K... are showing POG at $362.20 I've been offline for 3 days but this can't be correct. No mention of any massive drop on the forum. Someone tell me that's an abberation ( a horrible one).

I was watching all quite on the western front.This movie should be shown to all high school seniors and should be viewed by congress before debating any declaration of war.A scene in the movie that struck me was a scene when a german soldier steals a dressed pig carcass.He brings it back to his bunker to eat with his comrades.There are a group of new hungry recruits in the bunker,he asks them if they are hungry and they are.The soldier asks them if they can pay for the meal they all say yes and pull out wads of money.The soldier says those are just pieces of paper aia dont want that have you got anything real like cigarrettes or congac.I thought this was very telling.During times of trouble paper becomes worthless and commodities are king.I would bet if a soldier offered gold or silver it would have been accepted.All quite on the western front is a movie made between ww1 and ww2 I believe hyperinflation may have been taking hold in germany at this time.This is one great movie.21

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/One of the interesting aspects of the new USAGOLD-Jewelry site -- and pushed for with determination by Randy and Jonathan -- is that the price on nearly all the items changes daily with the price of gold. This is an important innovation that takes advantage of the instant market access provided by the internet. The local jewelry store would find it impossible to react instantaneously to gold price movement, but our customers will be able to take advantage of a $5 dollar price dip, or stop-gap a rapid increase. This also gives us the ability to start our pricing in a lower range in that we are not forced to 'add-on' in order to protect from a sudden move to the upside. There's more to this jewelry site than meets the eye and the younger group at USAGOLD -- Randy, Marie and Jonathan did an excellent job from conception through throwing-on the lights yesterday early evening in bringing you a quality product. The ease of navigation and simple presentation there is in itself an accomplishment worth noting -- a reflection of long weeks of careful thought and hard work. Congrats and Well Done!!

These are quality pieces of jewelry from the best manufacturers, priced right and we've put together a fulfillment system that gets the gold gift to you in rapid fashion. This program takes every advantage of our long-standing presence in the gold market -- our contacts, reputation, and established good will. We've decided to stick with gold -- as that is our trademark -- and avoid stones where grading can be an issue. We hope you find the jewelry site useful for your holiday gift-giving needs, and decided to launch the Holiday Season early here at USAGOLD in order to get our large and prestigious clientele ahead of the curve this year. More and more people are finding the internet, with all its advantages, a handy and convenient shopping tool.

There are a few tweaks to be added to the new site, a few product lines installed. We will endeavor to add items over the coming weeks and months to offer an even wider selection of gold jewelry items.

Please remember, it is your purchase of gold from USAGOLD~Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Can you point me to your source of information about the bombers moving from the West Coast to the Middle East?
Thanks - r

Sirs MK, GANDALF, ET AL at USAGOLD.

First let me say that the exquisite jewelry selection definitely should make Christmas easy for many readers on this forum and bring "wide eyes and bright smiles" from their loved ones.

Now for a bit of a personal dilemma.

I have tried to purchase from USAGOLD, and as a Canadian I understand the problems with movement between our two countries.

My question:

Can these items be made available either direct, or through some other Canadian dealer?

You were having a nightmare...stop eating cheetos before bed !

@Gondolin-

Check the date on your computer- maybe it's charting a past day's activity.

@21Maybry

Can I have your riding boots?

I read this book recently along with a number of works by British war historian John Keegan. What amazed me was the numbers of casualties. i.e.

WWII - Dresden Fire bombing - 230,000
Hiroshima 220,000
WWI - One trench battle -250,000

The wholesale slaughter of "cannon fodder" by the 20th Century powers make Iraq look like a bad day on the subway.

I read a piece by an Indian peace advocate last summer that called the 20th century the "Century of Slaughter", as the wars and genocides took out 100 million people, about 1% of the 20th century population.

subtitled "Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else"

Speaking of good books, I recently acquired a volume entitled "the Mystery of Capital" by Peruvian Economist Hernando de Soto. After reading Jim Rogers' books, I was intrigued by 3rd world economies, and found a surprising description of both normal and black market economies in de Soto's work. His treatise states that the most difficult task in 3rd world economies in integrating the "extra-market" economies into capitalizable entities. Large portions of even the real estate markets exist outside of documentable rolls, rendering their property equity markets useless.

De Soto's model for equitizing 3rd world property is the 19th century property-homestead battles in the US. Even George Washington fought with "squatters" on his land. Once the "squatters" were legitimized and became "homesteaders", we were on the way to "democratization" of property and the ability to capitalize the equity.

The current struggles in Russia make a lot more sense to me after reading this book. In most struggling economies the battle is between traditional (sometimes archaic) property structures and entrepeneurs.

Anyway, it's a great book!!

(Washington, D.C. - October 14, 2003) Pioneering contributions to the theory of superconductors and superfluids resulted in the 2003 Nobel Prize in Physics being awarded last week to Vitaly L. Ginzburg, Alexei A. Abrikosov, and Anthony Leggett. The Secretary of the Department of Energy, Spencer Abraham, said of the Nobel Award, "Through their efforts, tremendous strides are being made in understanding these processes, leading to the development of new superconducting materials and technologies that have great promise to benefit the entire world."


The silver industry has had a keen interest in superconductivity since silver is a key component of superconductive wire, which operates with no electrical resistance at practical operating temperatures and provides better performance at significantly reduced weight and size to cables, motors, generators and transformers.


About 16 years ago, researchers achieved a breakthrough when several unusual oxides were combined and proved to be superconductive at relatively low temperatures. However, they were brittle and unworkable. That was the case until a solution was developed at the AT&T Bell Laboratories, which incorporated silver into the mix to combat the earlier frustrations.


Placing these oxides into practical use generated worldwide research, and already over 700 patents have been issued. For example, the patents held by the American Superconductor Corporation (AMC), Westborough, MA (www.amsuper.com) have resulted in practical silver-jacketed superconducting oxide wires that carry more than 140 times the electric load of copper wire with less than 1 percent of the weight.


With over a decade of development behind it, AMC recently shipped 18 miles of silver- jacketed, high-temperature superconductor (HTS) wire to China for new electric-power projects. According to Greg Yurek, chief executive officer of American Superconductor, "We have sold samples of our wire into China and have been working with a number of companies and government agencies to meet this dynamic new Chinese industry. We believe this initial order represents just the beginning of what is ultimately enormous growth potential for all our products in China." Yurek added, "In every case we know about, a noble metal, primarily silver, is put on top of high-temperature superconducting wires."


The Silver Institute has previously reported that this wire takes about 1,000 ounces of silver per mile.



Comment: Found this article, but no direct link. Will post when find.

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5T35ZMGrant self deprecates about the continued postponement of his forecast for the Fed to finally overplay its hand, but he has a point that we are currently witnessing one of the great monetary dramas of all time and he makes a very persuasive case for being long precious metals.

What's more, he likens the present infrastructure for selling metal securities to the equity market in 1947. Few people owned stocks, now few don't. Similarly, an elaborate infrastructure and complex instruments developed to sell gold rather than to buy it � he's betting on a spectacular turnaround on that front.

Grant is especially bullish on silver because it has more favourable supply-demand characteristics.

"I'd take nature's way of a stable free gold wealth market all days of the week because anything else is slavery."

Druid: HM great post, this pretty much sums it for me. The paperchangers can come up with any combination, permutation, hybrid, partial differential or any other abomination they can conjure up. However, when the excess "dollar reserves" of the world start bidding for gold to set it "free" then even the most ignoramus among us will be able to discern "real" from "fiction".

Glox, I read that book its a good read.Anyone who can figure out how to allow the 3rd world to use that capital will be doing a great service to mankind.It will improve the lot of the people of these countries.Those boots in the movie prove once again that things are valuable paper wont keep your feet dry.That movie showed death but not gory blood and guts death,yet it was more powerful than many death cult movies made today.I should read the book they are always better than the movie although it is a powerful motion picture.21

Unfortunatley mans greatest accomplishment during the 20th century was finding new and more destructive ways to kill large numbers of people and other species.If only we put half as much effort into peaceful pursuits.I read recently that if the world would have stayed on a gold standard ww1 would have been over in 6 months because of the drain of the gold supply to pay for the war.Goverments ability to print fiat allows it to expand warfare to sizes undreamed of in past centuries.21

http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htmWe found this out in the Wilds - charts of Precious production by different lands and how much has been mined through history - interessting? Now we will go see if we can find a link to where It's all going, or gone.

S.

Several days ago, I say an item on Debka.com and on the Pravda site about the movement of about 280 US aircraft (bombers and AWACS) going from the West Coast of US to Europe/Middle East. Both articles said these aircraft were spotted landing in Scotland, presumably after flying over the North Pole.

My guess is that we feel that certain areas are secure enough (airfields in desert of Iraq or Jordan or Israel) that we can move aircraft to our new "land based aircraft carrier" i.e. Iraq. Thus we are prepared to make threats to Syria and/or Iran.

Or course, these sources may be total mis-information. My suspicion is that the report is true, and Isreal and Russia both had their own reasons to make a brief mention to alert US intelligence that they knew, but not a big public splash to alert the American people.

Of course, both items have been removed from their web sites. If anyone if clever with bringing up caches from Google searches, we may get the original wording. Both reports mentioned Scotland, and the Pravda report mentioned 288 aircraft if that helps with the searches.

We live in an interesting world

fog seems to be rather thick today. tryn to obsuring the golden ball we keep our eye on!

Sir Heavy: Your Post # 111475 Title below:

A Hypothetical Look at Commodity Money for the Dollar Block

U.N.I.T. - Unit of National and International Trade; for lack of a better word.

--------
Gdome:

Reading the method and workings of this system; it seems to start in the middle, with the unit already established....and in this matter the devil would only -Only -begin with the details of first establishing the "basket" of commodities included, and the ratio of the commodities included, And their respective valuations within the basket, (getting complicated already?). Can we imagine the bickering and arm twisting involved as countries involved would maneuver for favorable inclusion of their favorite commodities?

Ok, moving on, let's now assume, that a group of nations gets this commodity unit of exchange established. Are there going to be accounted for store houses for all of these commodities that are backing this unit?... or would we just again, trust everyone's accounting? Seems a little hard to believe this would be possible, but I quote again from your article, " Using a basket approach would smooth out any bumps due to weather, distribution hic ups, spoilage, etc. [Really? I doubt it.] As usual the average amount of commodities backing the Unit could be again lent out fractionally.... Possibly an average or fractional existing amount of each commodity found in the world markets at any given time would represent the Unit."

The matter of arbitrage, (variances in valuations in differing markets) would be a constant threat to the system, as the constant fluctuations in the values of the individual commodities within the basket of goods would drive some articles out of the basket, as they could be traded for a higher value on the open market, than for the value given them in the basket of comparative goods, and Vise/versa, I should add.

The system would also need frequent honing, due to the natural increases or decreases in market valuations of commodities based upon demand, natural supply, and disasters.

In the latter half of your article, you raise other important questions regarding the workability of a commodity system, and as I read on, I believe you also come to the conclusion, that this system would be very suspect and difficult to manage, due to the political, military, and vested interests of the powers that are in the world. The article comes to the conclusion, I believe, that this commodity system would be more unworkable than a system of monometallism,(Gold), I agree.

Gdomes, Closing comment: The 18th and 19th centuries showed that bimetallism, (Gold and silver in ratio, [a basket with only two commodities]) was workable for years, with periodic adjustments. However, the history shows that even using only those two metals created strain and arbitrage within the system when: 1) the ratio was set incorrectly, 2) the natural supply changes in the two metals (read discoveries) led to a market adjustment in the ratio outside the mint ratio. 3) The political preferences changed toward monometallism (gold) for large currency flows and transactions, leaving to Silver only the demands for small denomination coinage aspects of the market, And (and a big and) the free coinage of silver was discontinued. Could bimetallism work again? Probably, but a political concensus world wide would have to agree to make it workable. Right now, it's out of the question.

Enjoyed reading your post, ------Gdome.

While studying for modern chinese history class I was reading our text the rise of modern china.Right now we have been stuying pre ww2 years and the struggle between the nationalist and the communist.In the concluding remarks of this chapter the author addresses the strenght and weakness of the nationalist goverment.The author states one of the strengths of the nationalist was taking china off the silver standard in 1933 and introducing fiat.He backs his thoughts with statment because of rising world silver prices silver was leaving china at a great rate and reducing the goverments supply of this metal.Introduction of fiat in the authors view increased industrialisation and modernization.21

http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htmSmeagol (11/8/03; 11:16:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 111491)
Gold and Silver Production
--
We found this out in the Wilds - charts of Precious production by different lands and how much has been mined through history - interessting?
===
You are a GREAT SCOUT Sir Smeagol !!
Come home and have a fish.
<;-)

Interesting, Do you know the world market value of silver in '33 as compared to the monetary unit value in China that, I presume, was driving it out of circulation?

The U.s. silver policy could ruin anything at that time; the silver price varied from about 48 cents in 1915 to $1.18 by 1917 alone.

There's the Pittman act of 1918 that calls for the sale of Silver To Great Britain for India, and probably much more important: the Thomas amendment and the Silver Purchase act of 1934. By the end of 1933 Silver was priced at about 44 cents/oz.; seventy five % above depression lows. The silver purchase act called for treasury dept. to begin purchase of newly mined silver at 64 cents/oz. The secretary was directed to purchase silver until the market price rose to the traditional level of $1.29/ oz. The treasury bought up 3.2 billion ounces of silver, nearly half of that total in a four year perion between 1934-37. (Source for this information: The Coming Currency Collapse, Jerome Smith; 1981.)

This probably sunk, China's silver standard. (Their coins must have become more valuable for bullion trade, than in monetary transactions, much like our pre-'65 silver coins.) By the way, I believe the last country to have a Silver standard. Though I may be wrong.

Gdome

It took .715 tiels or yuan to buy 1 silver chinese dollar at the time.The author does not offer conversion into any western currency.Maybe someone on the forum can offer us more info.21

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/110703.htmlPuplava and company seemed less short-term bullish on PMs in today's broadcast. They recommend taking profits in paper gold and watching for a drop to accumulate physical.

FIT tax breaks for multinationals who buy $$:

snippit:

�"Coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas."

Full story http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/16/cx_da_0516topnews_print.html

If you did not get the implication of that message, let me elaborate on it. First, by allowing US multinationals to repatriate their earrings back to the US at a rate of 5.25% is tantamount to a 29% across the board cut in taxes, which will more than push them to come to the US. This 29% break more than makes up for the current devaluation in the dollar. Who would not take such an offer? It's basically free money.

Now here is where the situation gets sticky. In order to repatriate that money, the multinationals have to change from whatever currency they are currently holding to the US dollar. Effectively, they will be buying the US dollar and dumping their local currency.

This will have the effect of suddenly propping up and giving the US dollar strength, and as the dollars starts to gain, Gold will definitely be its victim. So it's highly likely that Gold's upward trajectory will be momentarily halted and that the day of reckoning will be postponed till after 2004.

Not only will the multinationals benefit from the 29% break, but they will also benefit as the US dollar starts to gain strength. Notice how this provision is only effective for one year, which coincides perfectly with the coming elections. The companies who take advantage of this offer early will be able to make another 10-15% gains as the currency appreciates, so in total they stand to gain upwards of 39%.

Based on this information, I have to recommend that individuals who have two gold portfolios (trading and long term) take precautionary measures and take profits from their trading portfolios as Gold is going to run into some potentially very strong resistance soon. We, at the Tactical Investor, have already advised our subscribers to take profits and will be sitting and watching this situation closely.

Gdome, some info to establish silvers worth.In 1937 to help china in its war effort against japan.The u.s. purchased 350 million ounces of chinese silver for 252 million u.s.d.

I do hope that our host will not object to a couple of pieces from the Daily Reckoning. One, passage's from Eric Fry's weekend comments. The other, a full text letter of Dr. Kurt Richebacher's economic analysis of the U.s.'s supposed current expansion.-------Gdome
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Eric Fry,
The Daily Reckoning

"Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit
in the U.S. rose $15.2 billion, or at a 9.7 percent annual pace,
in September. That's the biggest jump in consumer credit since
January. But how trustworthy is 7% GDP growth when national
indebtedness is soaring?...It's a strange sort of prosperity that
impoverishes those who are becoming "wealthier."

"Our age in finance is an age of heresy," says Jim Grant, editor
of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. "Budgets go unbalanced,
currencies go un-collateralized, current-account deficits go
uncorrected, securities go unanalyzed and bubbles go un-popped
(until too late)...We see the S&P 500 or the dollar...and we
imagine a kind of anvil suspended by dental floss."

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES
by Kurt Richeb�cher


"The deficit country is absorbing more, taking consumption and investment together, than its own production; in this sense, it is drawing upon savings made abroad. Whether this is a good bargain or not depends upon the nature of the use to which the funds are put. If they merely permit an excess of consumption over production, the economy is on the road to ruin. If they permit an excess of investment over home savings, the result depends on the nature of the investment."

- Joan Robinson, "Reconsideration of the Theory of Free Trade," Collected Economic Papers, Volume IV, 1973

America's economic recovery and its likely strength have been and remain the central preoccupation in economics around the world.

In the consensus view, the U.S. economy will record in this year's second half its strongest pace of growth since the late 1990s. According to a monthly survey of 53 economic forecasters conducted by the Wall Street Journal Online, its seasonally adjusted annual growth rate during the current quarter will be 4.7% and 4% in the fourth quarter.

While a few economists have been warning that this recovery's actual pace may disappoint, our own view is that the U.S. economy's higher growth rate in the second quarter was totally deceptive. Focusing strictly on the hard economic data, like employment, personal income, production, business fixed investment and profits, we completely fail to see any recovery at all in the United States.

Ever since 2001, the United States has been running monetary and fiscal stimulus of unprecedented largess. In July, the government's tax cut and rebate checks turned an income gain of $19 billion into a $120 billion gain in disposable income.

In the bullish consensus view, the medicine is finally working. Above all the upward revision of the second- quarter real GDP growth rate from 2.4% to 3.1%, following 1.4% each in the two prior quarters, has caused virtual euphoria.

Knowing these are annualized growth rates is the first reason why we are still unable to see a sustained, let alone a self-sustaining, economic recovery in the United States. When American economists speak of 4% growth in the coming quarters, they really mean 1%, and that is a far cry from what used to rank as a cyclical recovery. Growth rates of postwar recoveries in the United States averaged 5.4% over the first two years after recession - and that needed very little monetary and fiscal stimulus, as against less than 3% growth currently.

The second reason for our disbelief is that U.S. GDP has been heavily bolstered by government spending. In the fourth quarter of 2002, it accounted for 24.5% of nominal GDP growth, in the first quarter of 2003 for 40.7% and in the second quarter for 38.2%.

A third reason is that the recovery completely fails to show in the current-dollar data. In these dollars in which all economic activity takes place, GDP grew 0.99%, after 0.94% in the first quarter, an acceleration hardly worth mentioning. But measured in chained dollars, it more than doubled from 0.35% to 0.775%. Taking the big boost from government spending into account, it was more slowdown than acceleration.

The fourth and most important negative point is that the trumpeted recovery in business fixed investment, in particular in high tech, is just another statistical mirage. In the second quarter of 2003, overall business fixed investment in structures, equipment and software, measured in current dollars, amounted to $1,119.9 billion, slightly down in comparison with $1,126.8 billion in the first quarter of 2002.

Measured in real terms, chained dollars, it was up $64 billion, or 0.5%.

I hardly need remind you that a true economic recovery essentially must come from a balanced rise in consumer spending and business investment spending. But what really happened to the two during the first half of 2003, being generally hailed as the start of the U.S. economy's final recovery?

Let us look at the changes in aggregate GDP. Measured in current dollars, it grew by $99.6 billion in the first quarter and by $105.5 billion in the second quarter, hardly an acceleration.

Looking at the demand components, growth of consumer spending, its biggest component, slowed between the two quarters from $87.1 billion to $83.1 billion. Nonresidential fixed investment dipped in the first quarter, but recovered in the second quarter to its earlier level. From first to second quarter, the growth of government spending slowed from $40.7 billion to $33.6 billion, and that of residential investment from $21 billion to $6 billion. Not one single GDP component rose. The sharply rising trade deficit subtracted $11.1 billion from GDP growth in the first quarter and $23.8 billion in the second.

But this dismal picture, measured in current dollars, radically changed for the better after the statisticians had treated the numbers with their price indexes. GDP growth, measured in chained dollars, surged from $33.8 billion to $73.5 billion. Growth in consumer spending, down in current dollars, went steeply up from $33 billion to $62.4 billion, and growth in government spending even shot up from $1.7 billion to $31.7 billion.

Yet by far the single biggest contributor to this sudden surge in real GDP growth from the first to second quarter came from the calculation of the price deflator for computers. Measured in current dollars, this investment inched up by $0.8 billion in the first quarter and by $6.3 billion in the second quarter, but the hedonic deflator boosted the two numbers in real terms to $15.3 billion and $38.4 billion. Hedonic pricing of computers in the first quarter accounted for 43% of real GDP growth and for 44% in the second.

The bullish consensus, flatly disregarding the overwhelming hedonic component, immediately hailed the sharp rise in computer investment as the rapid comeback of high-tech investment. Wall Street celebrated with the NASDAQ up 56% since March.

In its absence, nonresidential investment remained dead in the water across the board.

Warm regards,

Kurt Richeb�cher,
for The Daily Reckoning

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-3365261,00.htmlThree Explosions Strike Saudi Arabia

Saturday November 8, 2003 10:01 PM


By DONNA ABU-NASR

Associated Press Writer

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - Three explosions rocked the Saudi capital Riyadh around midnight Saturday, and smoke could be seen rising from the area of the blast, diplomats said.

The diplomats said there was one big explosion at about midnight, followed by two smaller ones 15 seconds apart. Police cars raced toward the direction of the blasts, which appeared to have happened in the western part of the city.

An American Embassy spokeswoman confirmed the explosion, but said it was not in the diplomatic quarter. The extent of the damage was not immediately clear, and it wasn't known if there were any casualties.

Almost all the foreign embassies in Riyadh - including the U.S. Embassy - and most diplomats' homes are inside the quarter, an isolated neighborhood whose entrances are guarded.

But there are several residential compounds housing Western business people relatively near to the diplomatic quarter on the city's west side.

A western diplomat said he got a call from a friend who reported seeing smoke rising from a building on the other side of the diplomatic quarter near an area where the palaces of the royal family's senior princes are located.

The Al-Arabiya television network said an explosion shook a building in west Riyadh, but it did not give a source for its information or provide footage.

American diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia were closed Saturday for an undetermined period amid warnings that a terror attack could be imminent in the tense Gulf kingdom.




Comment: Sooner or later, this situation needs to get resolved. The world needs to know just where the Saudis stand in the big scheme of things. Methinks the U.S. cannot afford for the real truth to come out.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s984310.htmAround 40 armed men have stormed the Moscow offices of the Open Society institute of US billionaire George Soros, taking five people hostage, according to Interfax news agency, but there was no apparent political motive.

"Armed men in military clothing came into the building of the institute at 10:30 pm (local time)," a spokeswoman for the institute told the Russian agency.

"They chased out all the employees except for five who they are still holding," Irina Racheeva said.

The lawyer for the foundation, Pavel Kuzmin, stressed the men were known to the institute.

"We know these people... we are (currently) in court against them regarding the ownership of this building," he said.

"There are currently around 40 people wearing camouflage in the building."

The Soros Foundation and the Open Society institute are heavily involved in promoting civil society and the development of democratic ideas, chiefly in formerly communist east European countries.

Druid: We are certainly in unsettled times. Anyone catch the Soros write up in the latest issue of Fortune? He is "Mad as Hell".

Sir Druid, 40 people? What genius leader did they follow into that prison? We really have to pick our teachers and leaders carefully in life. At least the ones that we actively follow. Those 40 people are doomed.
The russians will never let them escape.
I guess kidnapping didnt occur to them.
Or staying home and reading a book.

"We really have to pick our teachers and leaders carefully in life. At least the ones that we actively follow."

Druid: Sir Dollar Bill discussing these two sentences could consume a working career. You're absolutely right when it comes to choosing your teachers and leaders but you must always stay vigilant and question what it is you're being taught. This entails that you continuously keep learning yourself(something most people are loathed to do). By in large, people today are students of "form" and very little if any "substance". We have given up a lot of land lately.

"The known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to reclaim a little more land."

T.H. Huxley, 1887

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aqa1ztGJt3rM&refer=latin_americaLatin American currencies are all experiencing record gains against the GreenSpanBack, according to Bloomberg.

Mexican Peso is about 11:1 and pushing down toward 10:1. Chile's record pace is related to the resurgence of Cu, which comprises about 35% of their exports. Even the real is rising, after settling Brazil's short-term debt problems.

see link for article-

Goldilox

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=27975Snippet:

Richard Duncan is author of a new book called "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures." In it, he argues that the Japanese bubble, the Asian Crisis and the U.S. bubble are related. In Mr. Duncan's view, problems have been building since the U.S. ditched the Bretton Woods system for what turned out to be a "dollar standard." As Richard will explain, the U.S. has benefited from the dollar standard because the U.S. is allowed to play by different rules. It appears, however, that we've overplayed our hand. But before we find out why Mr. Duncan thinks that a "dollar crisis" is inevitable, let's learn how we got here.


Druid: Great interview and book.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20031106/default.htm"In about 2008, the proportion of the working-age population that will retire is projected to begin escalating. Almost surely, the social security and Medicare benefits that are promised under current law to future retirees cannot be financed with existing tax rates."

http://www.washtimes.com/world/20031103-103421-1689r.htmSnips: SAO PAULO, Brazil � U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick once told Brazilian officials that if they were unhappy trading with the United States, their other option was to trade with Antarctica.
Under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's foreign policy has followed Mr. Zoellick's advice. Though it is not actually trading with Antarctica, it has decidedly turned east for economic growth and political partnerships instead of looking toward its traditional partner in the north���
�"�. Brazil is one of the protagonists in a new scenario being laid out that can define the century. It could be because of the inequalities we have accumulated throughout our history. It could be because of a surefire democratic gamble being made by a pluralist, multiethnic, multireligious society. We will not disappoint."
�..A key example of Brazil's foreign-policy initiatives is the accord among Brazil, India and South Africa signed in June. It focuses on scientific and technological cooperation, but one of its chief strategies is to act as a unified opposition voice inside the World Trade Organization. The group, informally called the G3, was instrumental in organizing resistance to U.S. and European Union policies at the September WTO meeting in Cancun, Mexico, which ended in stalemate. "Their goal is to lead a reformist development model and challenge the cocktail of neoliberal measures run by Washington and the International Monetary Fund," ��.During his first visit to Brazil in June, Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha defined the group as a multilateral effort to promote the social and economic interests of countries in the Southern Hemisphere. "We have thought enough about South-South cooperation and we have reached this stage now where we want to give it a concrete shape," he told reporters this year��"The G3 exists to fill a foreign-policy void," said Mr. Seitenfus. Brazil "is acting out its frustrations on the world stage, paying specific attention to the disparities between the rich and poor nations. China will likely become part of the group soon," he added
��
A Chinese delegation was in Brazil Aug. 18-20 and again in mid-September to discuss trade with Mercosur, a trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Counting U.S. multinationals operating in the region, Brazil and Argentina make up nearly 65 percent of South America's gross domestic product. "The Brazilian government has a lot of cards up their sleeves," said Reginaldo Nasser, an international-relations expert and university professor in Sao Paulo. There is a general consensus here outside the government that besides lobbying for a more humanist world order, Brazil is also looking for alternatives in case the U.S.-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas doesn't go its way. Brazil � the world's largest beef, coffee, sugar cane and orange juice exporter � has tried unsuccessfully to get Washington to lower or eliminate trade barriers to Brazilian food products in past FTAA-development negotiations. The 32 nations working on the project are to meet in Miami Nov. 16-21.
�.."For matters of economic growth, it is hard to imagine the U.S. ever being replaced by China or the G3," said Ricardo Sennes, executive director of Prospectiva, an international-trade consultant in Sao Paulo.
Argentina is Brazil's most steadfast ally in the region and can be expected to mirror Brasilia's worldview, according to top-level Argentine officials working in Brasilia. "We speak the same [political and economic] language. Many people in the world don't like to see Brazil and Argentine united. That's exactly why this union between us makes us even stronger," Argentine Ambassador Juan Pablo Lohle told the mainstream newsweekly Istoe. Another Argentine diplomat, Rafael Bielsa, was quoted by a Brazilian weekly as saying his country's position on the FTAA is "very similar to Brazil's."
"|f the U.S. hopes that our countries will be subservient, they're sadly mistaken," he said.
�..
"Brazil is maneuvering itself well on the international stage and especially with other developing countries to counter U.S. and EU hegemony," said Vicki Gass, economics adviser at the Washington Office on Latin America, a U.S. foreign-policy watchdog.
"Washington has got to be worried by the threat of Brazil, and has certainly made it the scapegoat for failed trade talks," she added.

Comments: A united cartel of countries with vast natural resources and vast human resources appear to be seeking independence from the multinational corporations and their legal framework (IMF/WTO). If they are even partially successful, this is yet more trouble for those that seek to expand the use of dollars in trade and therefore, their use as a reserve currency.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$crb,PRPBDAN[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GSince Feb. 24,2003, CRB-index is in a consolidation phase. But last Friday( Nov.07,2003), CRB is breaking out the previous resistance(250 point level).
In the last-February rally, the first runner is a crude oil, the second runner is gold( Precious Metals). But the grains have no contributions.
In the second CRB-rally (I think this rally continues until Feb., 2004), the first runner is a crude oil( A temporal top will be $34 per barrel, or $37 per barrel, but finally over $40 per barrel).
The second runner will be gold ( A temporal top will be $428 per ounce, or $470 per ounce, but finally over $530 per ounce).
The third runner will be grains. Soybean and corn are falling in a sleep after a first bull-rally. But the grains will be soared up strongly in a president-election year.
Consequently, CRB will be up nearly at 290 level within a few months, and finally reached over 330 level by a war-economy and China-auto demands.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

I am not so sure about your "sell a yen" !? What if Japanese exports, amalgamate with the greater China and decouple from the dollar-protection (dictate) ?
Toolie's posting indicates that the different global economic blocks are re-aligning on a currency level field.
I want to trade with "good" and "equal" neighbours instead of with my dominating bigger dollar-brother !?

Euroland's expansion is build on the concept of the euro- currency level field. East blockers are going to work for and with the euro instead of being left on their own with a competitive local currency that needs to depreciate in function of its euro-partners !

Debt-driven, political economies, can remain functional, for some time, when all agree on creating the same level of debts ! But that is not the case anymore. Some are making faster growing, bad debts due to their privileged systemic dollar-reserve-system. Slowly but surely, the planet is discretely shuffling away from the "DEBT DOLLAR RESERVE" as the planet's trading numeraire AND reserve asset ! The road to Freegold in a Free Physical Gold Market, step by step... by step.

Euroland is the main block that doesn't need dollar-reserves or/and DOLLAR NUMERAIRE anymore. The euro wishes to trade with euro-partners, around a "STABLE" euro currency. Reason for getting Russia in WTO, asap.
India, South Afrika and Brasil are in some way imitating this euro-unification-concept in an horizontal way.

This leads to Gold as the most objective tangible to express one's Wealth Reserve Asset strength or weakness.
Unecumbered ownership of universal wealth without a nationality. Freely tradeable ... owneable ... valueable.
No priviledges anymore for nobody ! Yep, Utopia !?

Thanks for your comments. I've been stumbling along the trail looking past bushes and trees thinking I may have seen a mountain ahead of me. Alas, maybe just a molehill.

Recently there were meetings regarding commodity money as a possible answer to the world's money system. May have been a few months back, I don't remember. Could this be the direction they are looking? Who knows for sure but whatever the outlet for these dollar debt units may be, it is going to receive enormous attention of the re-valuing kind.

In the early 70's my consciousness consisted of my friends, neighborhood and towns close by. I was too young to understand much beyond that. I did however remember other kids speaking about gold and how the dollar was worth nothing now. That was really the parents speaking through the kids but it worked. The seed was planted, and I have been eyeing gold ever since.

Who would have thought in 1979-80 that the fiat dollar would be around much longer let alone become the world's reserve currency? Laughable. A new scheme was hatched and here we are today suffocating in dollar debt. I myself don't see a basket approach of commodity money working. However, stranger things have happened that no one could have foreseen years before.

Again thanks for your comments and good weekend to all.

Hi, Belgian , I have a very different view about Yens futures.
I think Japan is like a former Soviet-unions.
Japan has a huge paper dollars, but only paper, not physical gold as you know.
Japanese production sectors have a competitiveness, but Japanese financial sectors are incredibly foolish. So that the above huge paper dollars will be lost very rapidly in a crisis.
1) When WTC towers were exploded in Sep. 11 2001, do you know what happened in the financial world ?
The answer is that Japanese two insurance companies were fallen into bankruptcies through thier foolish reinsurance contracts.
2) Argentine declared default in this year. If 20-years ago, City-bank( in USA) will be bankrupted.. But during these twenty-years, they transferred bad-loans from America to Japan. So more than half default-assets were held by Japanese financial sectors.
3) I believe that Japanese financial sectors will be fallen into unknown very deep-troubles in 2004. This is indicated by an astronomical-mundane chart of 2004-Japan. The second house predicts that Yen will be terribly crushed like as a Ruble.
To gain is one thing, to hold is another.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

http://www.empireonline.co.uk/news/news.asp?5144"Wizard's gold entered circulation today as Sir Ian McKellen officially launched the Royal Mint's range of commemorative Lord of the Rings coins. Featuring a range of characters and imagery from the trilogy, the coins will be legal tender in New Zealand, home of the films, and is yet another example of how Jackson's adaptation has become a part of the country's national identity."

4) Do you know who is Governor Fukui, Bank of Japan ?
Governor Fukui is the man who made the notorious Japanese land-bubbles in 1980s.
He is a puppet of Wall-Street, and his mission is to destroy Japanese economy.
He is doing very well in his mission. I believe that Yen will be destroyed silently, but very steady.

5) Rumors said that money from USA were poured into Tokyo stock exchanges. According to Japanese Department of Treasuries data, the inflow of capital for Tokyo Stock Exchanges from Oct. 2002 to May 2003 were total 133 billion dollars.

Their average buying costs of TSE was 8,000 point (Nikkei225 index), and its Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars(from Oct. 2002 to May 2003).

If these stocks were sold at the pre-determined level, their average selling costs of TSE was 11,500 point. and 23.3 trillion Yen was gained. This 23.3 trillion Yen was waiting for a chance to exchange. If G-7 Dubai meeting was not opened, and Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars, Wall Streets money were exchanged into 191 billion dollars, net 58 billion dollars per year were transferred from Japan to USA.

Recently, the Yen-rate was 109 Yen per dollar, and if 23.3 trillion Yen was exchanged at this level, Wall Streets gained 214 billion dollars, net gain were 81 billion dollars per year. G-7 meeting was contributing to 23 billion dollars bonus to Wall Streets


I think Nikkei is only manipulated by US-Jp sitting administrations for their re-election purposes.

And Japanese assets are robbed silently by Bank of Japan from Japan to USA.

These are main reasons why I claim repeatedly "sell a Yen".

Federal Reserve Corp dollar is world reserve currency (WRC) that is globally authorized via treaty agreements to conduct all oil and gold transactions in dollars. Oil is priced in gold and transactions are settled in dollars.
...correct?

Lets say for instance price of oil (POO) is $25 per bbl. and global volume is 10 mm per day. The Fed Reserve would be required to produce an adequate amount of dollars to conduct the smooth transaction of global oil trades.
...correct?

Consider what occurs when gold suppression scheme is employed. POO in dollars would decline from $25 bbl to $12 bbl. The result would be a flood of surplus dollars and dollar fiat derivatives (Yen, Francs, etc.) that would normally be employed and deployed in the trade and transactions of oil...correct?

When POO declines in such a manner (above) there would be 50% excess surplus fiat currency sloshing around in the market looking for a parking place. The perfect parking place selected would require the availablity of instant liquidity in case the POO began to rise and should also provide a capital gain while parked...correct?

The stock and bond markets would serve these needs. They would provide a fiat parking place that offers instant access to liquidity and also provide a return on investment.
...correct?

If the above is correct, then the movement of fiat capital from oil market into stock and bond markets would create a bubble. Is there evidence of this occuring? You be the judge:

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/CRUDEOIL.gif

Note the POO began declining around 1996 reaching a nadir low of $11 bbl 3rd quarter 1999. Then POO begins to rise. A rising POO would require movement of fiat capital from stock and bond markets back into oil market to complete smooth transactions. If this is correct, the stock and possibly the bond markets would exhibit growth then a shock from the removal of this capital...correct?

Is there evidence to back this? Yes! Note that the markets began collapse when POO began accelerating much higher 1999/2000...

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/USNASDAQ100.gif

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/USSP5001980.gif

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/USDJIND1980.gif

IOW evidence exists that we may logically attribute the major factor of the 2000 stock collapse to a rising POO by and through the repatriation of fiat from paper markets back into oil markets.

If you are central bank regimes faced with Kondratieff deflationary winter, how would you support the paper markets and fiat schemes??? Hello gold suppression? The scheme to "save the paperized planet" would require oil to be mainly settled in "gold as a currency." When the percentage of gold is increased for the settlement of oil, the POO would decrease in paper terms. For "ABRBITRARY" example, if oil is settled 1 gram of gold and $25 fiat...then settlment with 2 grams gold would price POO in terms of fiat at $12 bbl...

Washington Agreement and gold suppression was mere short term fix to long term problem...the actual problem being the west uses to much oil and cannot pay fair value to oil producers...hence the next step would require confiscation and seizure of oil fields which is what is now taking place in Iraq, etc.

Oil is world currency priced in gold...the central banks are most aware that the common people have been brainwashed in toto and do not understand the concept of value. Their values are arbitrary, as long as DOW is near 10,000, SnP 1000+ and Naz is growing the people are content never realizing the "real" value of their nest eggs are actually declining by the destructive forces of inflation. They never realize that the value of the goods have not risen or changed, but the net value of dollars purchasing power has changed and gone down...

Thus the central banks have embarked on inflating the money supply and the "real" indice value up to the perceived "people" value of contentness to retain political and monetary control. If the indices were to decline to true value and economic conditions, there would be an uproar and possible financial or social revolt. Therefore the central banks have created a temporary inflated illusion attempting to mask and cover the K winter...

This is temporary measure, POO, gold, milk, eggs, meat, medical care, education, etc. are rapidly rising due to the expanded inflation produced. These measures have only purchased additional precious time...

The games have begun...expect the unexpected, who cares where gold is priced in dollars...up or down from current levels...in the end real value will win the day as the illusion is discovered by the common man.

It was once written a DJIA of 30,000. I believe it based upon recent M3 growth! What wasn't written was a Dow 30,000 equals Gasoline $7.50 gal, Milk $10.00 gal., Bread $8.50 loaf, average automobile $80,000, average home $550,000 while average earnings remain $25 per hour or less...

The only tool central banks really possess is debt/monetary creation, thats it, nada...the sky is falling, create more fiat, the stock markets are collapsing, create more fiat, we are losing a war, create more fiat, bonds are tanking, create more fiat, election is coming, create more fiat, etc. Central Banks like all human institutions and bureacracies become self-serving with survival insticts and will do whatever is necessary to remain in authority and control. This is where they become very dangerous, when they realize their imminent destruction they care not whom or what is destroyed by their actions, they will perpetrate any scheme at any cost to insure their survival one more day.

Greenspan was truthfull when he said there was a new pardigm...he just convieniently forgot to elaborate on the consequences of the major raid upon the wealth and living standards of the common folk.

JMO, presented for educational purposes only blah, blah, blah...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14736-2003Nov8.htmlSnip:

First it was the executives and accountants, cooking the books. Then came the investment bankers and stock analysts, doling out bad advice. Now mutual fund managers have been added to the community of highly paid professionals who were supposed to look out for the financial interests of investors but decided to put their own interests first.
....................
***********
Misetich

Greedy, unethical individuals are making a sham of the financial system with yet to be accounted for consequences as the moral corruption is endless

American revolution part deux? Don't scoff at it - wait until scammed retirees find out their investment portfolio decimated valuations isn't coming back and taxes for the new generation are going to skyrocket through the roof

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

"Japanese production sectors have a competitiveness, but Japanese financial sectors are incredibly foolish."

Druid: DummyANI, American production and manufacturing sectors sold down the river to fend for themselves by well planned economic policies forged and implemented by American banking, government and financial sectors. You are not alone my friend.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/09/business/09JOBS.htmlSnip:

And a new economic study, prepared for the United States Conference of Mayors, concludes that wages are significantly lower in the service sectors that are adding jobs than in the manufacturing industries that have been losing jobs.

According to the study, prepared by the economic consulting firm Global Insight, the biggest job growth over the next two years will be in the areas of administration and support services, health care, travel and tourism.
....................
The average wage in those sectors over the next two years is expected to be $36,000, the study concluded. By contrast, the average wage in manufacturing sectors that lost jobs is $43,000.

"While you see jobs coming back, they are not coming back in the same sectors," said Kwame M. Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit. "Cities like Detroit have to struggle to find their niche."
.......................
In its regular survey last month of chief executives at large companies, the Business Roundtable found that 71 percent of the executives expect their sales to increase in 2004 but only 12 percent expect to expand their work forces.
................
But even if the pace of hiring in October gathers additional strength, adding more than 150,000 a month, many economists still contend that unemployment will decline only modestly by the end of next year. For those who are out of work or forced to accept lower-paying jobs, that kind of recovery may not feel like much of a cause for celebration.
******************
Misetich

Mfg jobs have gone overseas - the much ballood productivity improvements are nonsense - jobs have been exported -

The "new jobs being created" are either temporary in nature or lower paying jobs - Wage increases are lower than "Real unadultared inflation" - Health costs have/are being passed on to individuals from corporations - Discretionary spending is diminishing when factoring inflation

The much awaited economic recovery stands to be post-poned again for the 4th consecutive year

US is not Japan Sir Greenspan says - yet its following the same path

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

I'm getting your point, but... : What if the japanese will one day make a choice between, being (remaining) the dollar's obedient servant or melting (on a large scale) into
the arch enemy's Chinese economy ??? We still remember 1997 -Hashimoto's dollar-threath with Japanese Gold Accumulation, don't we. Evidence (to me) that the dollar doesn't allow Japan to accumulate (dollar-threathening) Gold. But you can't prevent Japan from producing in China and join the most advantaged competitor in the global arena.

You seem to know the Japanse situation from much closer. Are the japanese realizing what is happening to them, or am I posing the wrong question ? Can you please elaborate a bit more on how you see the possible future outcomes !? TIA.
After all we are talking about Japan being the second (third-?) biggest holder of dollar reserves. Extremely important for Gold in the short and long run.

Sir ge: No matter how bad that we may observe things now or in the short run, they will be getting worse in the future.

Your reference to Alan Greenspan's concern about future Gov't liabilities always remind us of the potentially needed massive gov't inflation required to fund these gov't programs in the not-now to distant future.

We recall that former Treasury Secretary Paul O'neil had authorized a research paper late last year, that showed unfunded U.S. obligations at $44 trillion dollars! This report may have lead in part to his ouster as not being an obfiscating enough gov't team player. When we all read and are reminded of number overhangs like that, it helps to remind us all of the importance of holding physical gold and/or Silver to protect against the future impending declines of the dollar and the inflation that will be required to fund the gov't give-aways that politicians have continually used to buy the votes of favored vested constiuencies. ----Gdome

http://www.pimcofunds.com/PIMCO?op=www&mainsection=bond_center⊂section=commentary&request=investment_outlook&content_id=43000Snip:


For investors, corporations, and financial entities that believe they have a birthright to the high returns typical of the '90s, the amount of duration, leverage, and therefore risk required to attain it is considerable if not egregiously excessive. 42-year duration portfolios can provide returns of 13-20+% in this yield environment but a 50-basis point rise in rates across the curve erases them over a 12-month span and a 250-basis point rise wipes out all of their capital--gonzo, kaput, no money left in the bank. While our economy is undoubtedly not levered to a 42-year duration, it is levered. The banks are levered 10 parts assets to one part capital to begin with. The hedgies the same. Agencies even more. As their asset durations move higher, the more susceptible we become as an economy to going kaput as well should interest rates rise. All the levered players mentioned above are making hay while the short borrowing rate is at 1%. Change that borrowing rate by much, Alan Greenspan, and you risk another bubble popping--this time the U.S. economy.
********************
Misetich

Interesting Gross believes the highly leveraged US economy, SM requires low IR otherwise its over

Can you imagine if IR are going to be raised to support a falling US $, to encourage foreigner to invest in the US whilst the economy goes nowhere in real terms?

How do you protect your portfolio? Your wealth? by adding a little insurance - PHYSICAL GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

uh um aristotle i dun been tinking long & hard bout dat der money /proprty thingy. you know dat trail dat i waz once on but dagnabit to ternation i fell off of. If gold is property and not money den der b lots of people who got it all wrong. what in d world do we do bout dat? how do we esplain ? uh um excuze me sir but the world is upsider down u see gold taint money tis property. Aristotle if i go and done do dat den i be looked at like i b from uranus or sumting. so one ting i think is tru doe is dat der will be a DEFINING MOMENT when doez people on dis here planet will have to DEFINE DER MONEY>. see if de money defines you den u be outta luck. individuals are suppose to define what money is to demselvs.
so ari i c where gold as propery rules. but i cant get it into mu cranium jes yet which one is money when gold buys fiat or when fiat buys gold. at dat instant arent dey both money? in essence property becomes money when you chose it to become money and no sooner! ari am i on d rite trail or am i like a blind coon dog ,,,barking up d wrong tree? oh only if i could see what gold is for me. all dis after i finally understood what it means for gold to be free thanks to belgium and thee. now which tree money or property
gold and silver
honest property???
for honest people!!!!

DummyANI sell a yen buy a gold
steady sell a fiat buy a gold.

got that idea from you !

When spending is out of control, bankruptcy comes creepin� around.
Overspending, in the financial sense, in the moral sense, in the power sense, can all result in types of bankruptcy.
Overspending in large scale with spiraling cycles, the end result is quite catastrophic.
Tyranny, quickly brings escalating terrorism, this in turn leads back to escalating tyranny. Like a short circuit, things quickly overheat.
Some types of bankruptcy bypass the poor house and go directly to the graveyard. Those of us who do survive will know the meaning of heartbreak.
Our Constitutional values have been sold short, our currency has been overspent and now our military might is being overspent. Israel and Russia are in similar escalating spirals to multi-dimensional bankruptcy as well. Is it any wonder why Bush considers them as our allies?
Only fiats can be spun from straw, not gold.
So, get some gold and hang on to it.
Heartbreak Hotel does not take credit cards.

Best Wishes

"Thus the central banks have embarked on inflating the money supply and the "real" indice value up to the perceived "people" value of contentness to retain political and monetary control. If the indices were to decline to true value and economic conditions, there would be an uproar and possible financial or social revolt. Therefore the central banks have created a temporary inflated illusion attempting to mask and cover the K winter...

This is temporary measure, POO, gold, milk, eggs, meat, medical care, education, etc. are rapidly rising due to the expanded inflation produced. These measures have only purchased additional precious time...

The games have begun...expect the unexpected, who cares where gold is priced in dollars...up or down from current levels...in the end real value will win the day as the illusion is discovered by the common man."

Druid: Sir Melting Pot Great!!!! Post. The "illusion" is being shattered into a million pieces from different directions. Be weary of those collectivists' charlatans dressed in capitalist garb being paraded on the parrot box pontificating that higher prices are some how "good" for what ails corporate America. We now are in the midst of ANOTHER dynamic which will further move us along the path toward the abyss. The first dynamic being too much debt to service thereby creating the need to unemploy the employed. Now, throw in higher prices along the demand curve for all goods and services and you further reduce overall demand which cuts into needed revenues for the "profits" (what is this word) that are needed to pay off the first dynamic of debt.

not so foggy today eh. guess everyone needs a day off now and then ! <:+)/~~~

There was a man who took a fancy to travel this round land,
and found "money" EVERYWHERE was hard to understand.
It was all consequence of unnecessary confusion,
from the forced notion of Gold/Monetary fusion.
TRUTH: "Money" is an ABSTRACTION, while Gold can be GRASPED by even a child's hand!


Less limerick-lyrically, let me put it this way. The best evidence that Gold is NOT money (and money is NOT Gold) is that EVERYONE knows *knows* KNOWS **KNOWS** what Gold is. Sure, some may not fully appreciate it, but they definitely KNOW what it is. Hell, even a toddler can *grasp* it. Now here's where the truth is found in a contrast: on this other hand, nobody *knows* what the heck "money" is. (Nobody, that is, except for the 17 of us who attend the annual meetings.)
:-D

Review October 14th.

Gold. Get you some. Because "no one" knows what money is. --- Ari

Liberty Head: In line with your post below, I drop in Bonner's comments from this week at Dailyreckoning.com

Melting Pot: One of your best! Great overview of the entire picture.

Toolie: Thanks for the Brazil insight. More of the picture coming together.

Misetich: Thanks for the Pimco link. Bill Gross fleshes out the risks others are taking with the leveraged bond holdings that he minimizes his durational risk in. He's taking his income hit now, with less risk. They'll all try to bail at once when the political diktat no longer can hold the line and rates are heading up.

G: When you read Bonner's simple summation, you see how opposite we are to the lemming run we watch together. We declare the need to save (not merely buy speculative assets on credit), and we declare the need to save in a medium that is protected from the envious intent of those failed speculators to cheat all true savers of their savings. Oh but it's all right, since "we're all in this together", with the blessing of high parental-type officials.

In their pouting petulance, when those schemes don't pay off, they will lash out and wipe out their debts (and all others� savings) by popular demand. THAT is the rationale for buying the big McBoxes on 100% (or 125%) credit -- heads I win, tails you lose. (For accuracy�s sake, that's "tails, I walk away even.")


BONNER: And now we have before us the spectacle of millions of people who think they can get richer - neither by the sweat of their brows... nor the discipline of saving... but by merely by buying a house or a stock. The price of purchase doesn't seem to matter; the secret is just to 'be in the market.'

And since they believe they have found the lazy man's way
to wealth... they see no need for the usual precautions. Why not mortgage up your house... if you know the price will rise? America's savings rate has fallen to one half of one percent of GDP... or less than 3% of personal income. By contrast, the Chinese typically work longer hours, under worse conditions, for 1/10th the pay... and save 35% of their money!

Not only do they not save money, collectively, Americans
spend a half-trillion more than they make... and borrow
another half-trillion - much of it from third-world,
communist nations - to finance their national government.

RICHEBACHER: Yet by far the single biggest contributor to this sudden surge in real GDP growth from the first to second quarter came from the calculation of the price deflator for computers. Measured in current dollars, this investment inched up by $0.8 billion in the first quarter and by $6.3 billion in the second quarter, but the hedonic deflator boosted the two numbers in real terms to $15.3 billion and $38.4 billion. Hedonic pricing of computers in the first quarter accounted for 43% of real GDP growth and for 44% in the second.

G: But then, Americans have always been an impatient people. (Maybe that's what cons the Europeans over and over again -- they envy that restless energy? Sheesh!) And so we are planning to sting the world's lenders once more. Safe behind our coastal walls -- "just try to come and collect it". We'll see.

If there is a comprador political class that can be bought by the big Chinese (Euro, Indian, Caymanian & whoever) money that owns title to mucho US real estate 50 years from now, will they accommodate to having the US serf population bound to it as renters for generations to come? Gotta be in somebody's game plan, maybe after the Boomers are downsized, senile, or gone? A big move, a long time coming -- but one inevitable to those who lose out in the race to save capital.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

There is an editorial by Sol Palha posted over at the neighboring castle. It gives the following quote from Forbes:

"The Journal's coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas."

I know that many US companies that have overseas operations deliberately DO NOT repatriate earnings to avoid paying the taxes. Many of them have saved up earnings over seas and this will be their opportunity to repatriate them at a much lower tax rate. This may cause a significant dumping of other currencies in favor of the dollar. It is possible this might be enough in the way of drugs to keep the strong dollar corpse kicking long enough that Dubya can be a two term prez.

aristotle.
ok im with ya so far so good.
if thats the case then
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people
works for me even if it isnt 100% accurate, close enuf for the populace of this planet to grasp onto.


see if you let money define you either positivly (no debt & more importantly no revenu stream to those who oppose free gold,) or negativly (debt loaden and a cash cow golden goose type of revenu stream to those who oppose free gold) you are in essence saying ok im a worthless human being by default. since all fiat money ever created returns to its original value zero, well actually zero is an increase in value since it was born negativly (debt)but ya get the point.
so be a worth while human and define for yourself what money is and act accordingly.

this defining by the world one mind at a time as to what money is(dont worry they will all have to go thru it for yall know from this board to the world as ideas are spread rather quickly now) will in the long run be the positive cataylist for further social/educational gains world wide than any stimulus package the imf could ever concieve of to indebt a nation . so this defing of money becomes another plank on ecoism platform .

ecoism building a strong foundation for the duration of time.
golds time line forever..... its depth..unknown!

...of me throwing in the towel.



Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

http://www.profitresearch.co.jp/e/sitemap/index.shtmlI cannot answer very well Japanese situations in English. But it is evident that as Japan cannot hold more Gold, why can she sell dollars or sell US T-bonds ?
The mission of Bank of Japan is examined very carefully by Richard Werner.
He is a most important man in the present financial world.
He verified what Mr. Fukui did in Japan in 1980s.
He is managing a private fund, and his fund will finally exchange all money into gold at a financial crisis.
Please access at the above url
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

That's all window dressing and whip cream. The dollar's fundamentals are not good.

by Jim Sinclair, Sunday, November 09, 2003, 9:05:00 PM ESTInadvertently, I believe, but still detrimental to the Gold Community at large, is the latest Trojan horse to be rolled out of the COT stable.



It appeared in a Gold Eagle article by Sol Palha who quotes Forbes as saying, ��The Journal��s coverage of tax matters focuses on a provision to allow US multinationals a one year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25% instead of the current 35% rate. The bill will also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working abroad.��

The article goes on to interpret this tax loophole as a means of bulling the dollar higher into the 2004 election. After carefully laying the foundation for his follow-up recommendation, Palha advises his clients to sell gold and gold shares.

I already answered this issue in detail in last week��s article, ��Jim Answers Richard Russell��s Question.�� However, because I am receiving ��Emergency�� communications from terrified Gold Community members, I will again give you the skinny on what this really is and its potential impact on gold.

This tax legislation is a purely pork barrel effort designed to benefit select recipients before the 2004 election. (Nothing really new here!). However, this particular effort is being seriously misinterpreted by the writer and is not significantly dollar positive or gold negative in the least. Here��s why��

The amount of funds that can be affected by this legislation are estimated at $150 billion to $300 billion.
These funds would trade in the inter-bank market for currency.
Money repatriated in a legal tax laundry loophole can be expatriated the next day, zeroing the slight impact the trade might have.
The size of the inter-bank market for currency is estimated by the Saint Louis Federal Reserve at one trillion dollars per day. So what is the big deal about even $300 billion over 365 days?
The writer may not know it, but tax treaties exist between the US and almost every major economy in the world. Under these tax treaties, double taxation is significantly modified by making the taxes paid to one nation deductible from US taxes. Because of this, the effective rate in this type of a situation is far from 35%.
So the arithmetic of this legislation is intriguing as it is with any other legislation proposed by this administration. It leads me to believe that some US Fat Cats are getting a gift in this pork barrel tax bill that will allow them to repatriate funds that in fact might not be taxed at all but is needed here in the US.

Keep in mind that the Grand Cayman Islands has a Zero tax rate so funds there have been taxed but at the zero rate. My financial detective sense of ��follow the politically favored money�� makes this special interest pork barrel tax bill smell like a tax laundering mechanism.

One thing this tax bill is NOT is dollar bullish and gold bearish. So forget the nonsense making the rounds in the Gold Community and get ready for the real play in gold that��s coming soon to a theatre near you.

Beware of the self-styled ��gold experts�� with no experience in foreign exchange markets or any other market for that matter. Intellectual knowledge is dangerous when it��s laid upon the real world of trading.

Analytical knowledge is good but those that have it in many cases simply do not understand the mechanics of markets and often get lost because of their inexperience. Generally half- experienced geniuses become half-assed advisors.

Again, I would encourage you to post my review on this issue to the chat groups that you frequent because another Trojan horse has been placed in the camp of the Gold Community.

Thanks for the info Sir Carl H.

I found the original Pravda article at:
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2003/11/279931.html
(and at Pravda itself, but I lost that link).

I found some more follow up info at:
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2003/11/274476.shtml

Indications seem to be that they were transport aircraft. One author seemed to think they were for a NATO conference, another for troop deployments.

It may not seem directly related to gold, but any such attack would certainly make the price jump, IMHO!

Cheers -r

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0765610493/qid=1066364777/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/002-9272469-7868833?v=glance&s=booksHello, Sir Belgian, I present another Answer to your question:What if the japanese will one day make a choice between, being (remaining) the dollar's obedient servant or melting (on a large scale) into the arch enemy's Chinese economy ???

Answer: Mr. Fukui, he is a governor for Bank of Japan, is literally a puppet of Wall-Street.
This progress is investigated in detail by Richard Werner.
A puppet is manipulated by a man. The puppet is never to try to manipulate the man.
I cannot image that Bank of Japan is decoupled from US-dollar system.
And a true power is executed by a central bank, not by a sitting administration. This process is vividly described in �gPrinces of the Yen: Japans Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economy�h by Richard Werner.
This book explains what central banks do in a real world.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

I am sure you have all been waiting for this signal.
Today Fur Face says buy Precious Metals. I have already followed his advice and then cracked open some bubbly.

or HRFF to be short,

As I returned from a business meeting this evening, I checked into the forum to see your comments. Perhaps, another mint julep will bring you into that happy place?

If you're buying the metals, in the morning, I will be placing my first sell in this sector since March. No more contracts carried forward, or spec pos taken in delightful bliss...my run is over...

Better call Doc, and get some better advice..wait, that's laughable in itself,

The (physical) CoinGuy

The "Laurent Murawiec" ( French Rand Corporation specialist) scenario on Saudi Arabia is (imo) gaining momentum. Note that Murawiec has been the European redactor for EIR (Lyndon Larouche) for 20 years. Now in the neocon camp (?).

Income from Arabian oil is the financial basis for the international moslim-fraternity. This money flows into the remotest cave or island on the planet. The POO and oil money flow is crucial for the whole islamic organisation.

The end goal of the WOT is definitely the immobilization of Saudi Arabia, in one way or the other. I think that the consequences will be shocking ! Thoughts anyone ?

@D-ANI : Thanks for the links (R.Werner) in your response.

I tend to agree, and have read about a Neocon wetdream along the lines of carving up Saudi into a big Gulf State-like oil producer and leaving the Wahabite extremists to mill around in the desert.

On the evidence of Iraq, we can expect major disruptions to oil production which, IMHO, would result in a period of $60-100 oil. This would actually have a silver lining in the long-run, since it would finally force major spending on alternative energy. In the short-run, however, it would be a disaster.

On a related note, NYMEX Dec light sweet appears to be breaking resistance - key Fib levels 61.8% @ 30.91, 78.6% @ 31.63.

This actually ties in through the back door with the story about Brazil/RSA/India starting to join forces. From the Wilderness recently ran a story about the incredible dependence of intensive N Am farming on oil due to decreasing land productivity - largely because of the cost of heavy fertilizer use.

One of Brazil's advantages is the low intensity, non-high tech farming methods it employs.

This could actually turn FTAA/ALCA on its head, in that far from trying to ban Brazilian imports by subsidizing domestic farmers, they may actually need imports to fill up the domestic production gap.

On the other hand, despite this rosy scenario, I would tend to bet on it eventually being thwarted by the sheer incompetence and short-termism of Brazilian politicians.

I have to admit to being a very, very big fan of your posts. They always require more effort to decode, but it is always worthwhile. In fact, I have considered asking our hosts if they could provide a page of just your postings.

I agree that the seizing of the Saudi oil fields is the main objective of the American ruling class. It is so important that they do not want to do it too hastily. My feeling is that they see no reason to do it before the presidential election.

I share Mike Rupert's (of "from the wilderness") view that this presidential election can be thought of as each candidate pitching to the elites that they are best suited to pull off this next "mission" of American conquest. The candidate that convinces the elites the best will win because of the massive power of the elites to effect the "horse race" (1. manipulate media 2. highlight or suppress scandals 3. move money and key persons to or from different candidates 4. activate or de-activate "trojan horse" staff people with true allegiences to the power elites 5. cause plane crashes)

As I understand it, the plan is to de-stabalize Saudi Arabia. American troops will seize the main oil fields which are away from the Saudi population centers. By the way, true Saudi population figures are secret since there are so few Saudi citizens.

My sense is that Kerry is the most likely Democratic candidate to offer a credible team to pull this off. This implies that the campaign season will not go well for Dean.

I suspect that this operation could only be carried about during a deep crisis phase. I think that gold will soar first, then America will go after Saudi Arabia.

Belgium: you drop a hint that such an operation would have dreadful consequences. Please tell us what you have in mind.

I know very little (nothing in fact) about Brasil's importance as a world player.
A hefty percentage of the globe's agricultural products are
heavely subsidized for a myriad of reasons. I don't expect any life-threathening shortages anytime soon...even when the POO goes to 144$ (OBL-price). There are so many places on the planet where extensive agriculture can be started/extended.

The altering POO is having much more impact on the moslim fraternity as a fast growing fraction out of 1,3 Billion moslims. They are on the income side of Arabian oil.

In the long run, we can manage (adapt to) *steadily* rising crude prices. But crude oil (its availability) is much more than a commodity with a price ! It is a political commodity, because it generates enormous (and easy) state income through taxes, impacting fiscal policies.
But what makes oil so very special, is that it is getting more and more "dollar-related" (associated) and less market-related !!! Oil=dollars and vice versa, dollars=oil.
Watch how the POO reacts much faster/accurate (than POG) to the dollar's exchange rate versus the euro !!!
Crude Oil, its dollar-price, is in fact "valueing" (pricing) the dollar !

Do we realize, enough, the total political load that oil does carry ? There is a *reason* WHY many (almost all) keep the oil-element, out of the whole WOT-thing !
Oil's future is directly related to the planet's dollar-reserve status ! Gas, will be the next resource that will become increasingly politicized.

If and when Saudi Arabia falls...the dollar acquired some more lifetime, imo.

Remember the clumsy timing of the Chavez-Venuzuela coup d'�tat. Will probably happen somewhat later. Note that Columbia (nor Algeria-East Timor...etc) is not included in the axis of evil.

Many astute, wise, sovereign and experienced world-observers, stubbornly refuse to communicate (remain silent) on the vital oil-dollar link (and now even on 9/11) !!!
For very...VERY, good reasons, of course.

Arabian oil-dollars were never and will never be recycled in any kind of productive system as to replace the depleting black treasure. This oil-manna is consumed by the moslim fraternity. Who dares to suggest publicly, linking the consumption of Arabian oil as indirect terror-financing/support ? Clinton visited Antwerp (Belgium) this week, on invitation of the international diamond traders. Clinton praised, without stopping, the high morality (hummm) of banning the so called blood diamonts ! A genial system to avoid excess diamond-offer from the many wild cats, operating out of the de Beers cartel (monopoly).

If you can find English translations of the works from Peter Scholl-Latour...read some of these. Very enlightening, indeed.

Keep us informed with your EW/FIB analyses ! I very often agree with them. Not that this a reference....smilllllllllleeeeeeieieieie.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html

The True Sinews Of War:
They are money, More Money, AND YET MORE MONEY. This is where ECB chief economist Issing's
words come to the fore. Herr Issing is the European Central Bank's chief economist. He did go to
London specifically to make his speech.
Here are some excerpts From Herr Issing's London speech:
"It would be dangerous to believe that excessive expansionary measures would be a valuable
contribution. They would be in the interest neither of the US nor of the Euro area, as they would give rise
to imbalances elsewhere which would have to be corrected at some point in the future."
"Artificially stimulating the economy by large budget deficits and/or inflationary monetary policy is no
viable option. In fact, history tells us that such policies can only provide temporary straw fires, with
potentially damaging long-term consequences."
"Given the historical track record of public entities with respect to the efficient use of funds, this shift
towards the public sector both on the financing and on the allocation side may in itself provide some
cause for concern."
"The current level of the US current account deficit is in the longer run unsustainable and an adjustment
will eventually occur, whether actively supported by macroeconomic policies or not. I sometimes have
the impression that Europe and the US are separated by two different schools of thought in that respect."
"In Europe the view seems to prevail that a problem with the US current account deficit indeed exists,
while on the other side of the Atlantic, many people do not consider this to be a problem, at least not for
the US, but rather for Europe."
And the most critically decisive words in Herr Issing's speech:
"THE US TRADE DEFICIT IS NOT EUROPE'S TO SOLVE."
An Historical Door Slams Shut:
Politically, there is no way that the chief economist of the ECB would EVER have been let loose to go
out on his own and make such a speech. But, speaking under the banners of the ECB and doing so in
London, makes this speech an international event because of where it was made
Herr Issing's is truly a signal speech in the terms of global monetary affairs because it spelled out the
message that THE ECB HAS CLOSED ITS DOORS TO THE US.
With this speech - the post 1944 Bretton Woods trans-Atlantic monetary cooperation is OVER.

The Primary Facts:
Total US credit, i.e. money lent and therefore debts now owed, has expanded by $US 11.7 TRILLION or
57% to $US 32.4 TRILLION over the past 22 quarters. That's just five and one-half years. The total US
credit has now been expanded at an unprecedented annualized amount of $US 2.82 TRILLION or 25% of
US GDP during the first half of this year. Translated from these raw numbers, that bluntly means that the
US as an economy is borrowing 25% of its living standard.
Over the past year, measured on a month to month basis up to the end of September, the nominal US GDP
increased 5.0% or $US 532.2 Billion to $US 11.04 TRILLION.
Right here in plain economic terms is the fact that kills all US economic, monetary and financial
pretensions. The FACT is that it took annualised borrowings of $US 2.82 TRILLION to generate a sad
small increase in GDP of $US 532 Billion.
All Pumped Up:
The American economy has now reportedly roared ahead at an annual growth rate of 7.2 percent in the
third quarter, the fastest pace since 1984. Consumers and businesses have picked up spending, but that is
not to be wondered at because of the huge Bush tax cuts and tax rebates that arrived in American
consumers� hands and the federal budget deficit which is pumping about 550 Billion US Dollars into the
American economy. That $US 550 Billion can be added to the $US 2.82 TRILLION they borrowed.
It is THIS situation which the European Union (EU) has walked away from. The ONLY thing that
remains to be seen is when the Asians follow suit.
When the Asians, too, give up, the US Dollar will have its historic, head first dive.

Sorry for spelling name wrongly.

on the back of a huge decline in Auto Sales. GM's sales collapsed 8%. WMT same store sales up 3-5%. Both well below recently posted 7% GDP numbers.

Trade deficit out as well. A huge trade deficit is a drag on GDP.

Crude oil has spiked above $31. Big resistance at $32.50. Above that it could fly. Next terror attack could target a tanker or pipeline rather than a copter or civilian center?

As an amateur observer, I try to listen carefully on what (silent) Euroland says as reaction on US policies. Everybody is politely but firmly requested to stop all fantasies on 9/11 conspiracy theories. There was NO conspiracy. Period, over and out !

This against the background of the fact that Euroland is more dependant on gas/oil imports than the US. This while it is the US, who is unilaterally, organizing (hum) oil-matters in the M.E.
Open question rises : Is the EU silently starting to agree, and to what extend on US' oil(!)-policies, for the long term benefit of the two of us (US-EU) !? If so, this means a change.

Another funny thing happened. President Bush insisted that Turkey should join EU. A Trojan horse of course. This week Belgian PM went to Turkey. No comments on his return. Funny !

Brussels' based NATO is still dis-agreeing on the "out of area" principle. Means Atlantic (US-EU) military cooperation outside the EU/US borders (Saudi Arabia-?).

Putin in Italy and embracing (became a trendy thing) EU as never before. Will Saudi Arabia have to pay the price for the EU-Russia growing resource-alliances ?

etc...etc...

The utmost (political)importance of Saudi Arabia as oilprice-regulating, swing producer, comes into the headlights ! Oil consumers, worldwide, and hundreds of millions of the moslim fraternity(ies) are going to be affected by this dramatic change in political load of the POO ! The "dollar" in short term control of global oil-consumers/producers and moslim-income ! Global democratization ???

All this boils down to the main question, if and to what extend is the world ready to keep using/supporting/recognizing the dollar-reserve-system !?
During the cold war, the USSR-threaths (?), and the military Atlantic Alliance forces, made nobody doubt about the practicality of using the dollar-reserve. Things have...and are changing, very rapidly. American dominance is constantly put in question (evaluation) now. But has to be done, cautiously. A sudden and brutal change on Saudi Arabia, would rock the boat (this process) drastically.

Schould Saudi Arabia be occupied, before or after, it has nuclear potence (from Russia or Pakistan or other) !? Idem dito for Iran !? How will nuclear-Russia react !? France is increasing its nuclear capacity, also ! etc...

The crusade on islam is affecting Euroland (more so than the US) in many aspects, other than the oil element. Arabs can be hired for some time (past 30 years), but never be bought entirely ! We seem to underestimate this given and its consequences. The so called WOT was predicted to be a long one. It will be a long AND exhausting one. WWIII, I'm afraid !? Will it be the last dollar-war or not ?

Saudi Arabia hasn't been pushing its luck with reckless rises of the POO. It remained very disciplined into the political range of 22$-28$, up until now ! In other words, the planet's swing producer keeps on supporting the dollar and dollar-system, for the time being. Any further suggestion or rumor on Saudi Arabia will increase the tensions. Remember that I regulary drew our attention on the deafphening silence on and about Saudi Arabia.

The International Intrigants must be feasting now. How cynical.

A little more on what has already been posted re FTAA

Miami is getting a little jittery over the FTAA (Free Trade Americas) meeting coming up around the 17th of November. Reps from 34 countries will be there to discuss a tariff free trade zone from Alaska to Argentina.

Haven't seen much national press on this (for obvious reasons I suppose) though the area papers here have taken notice. Protesters are gathering already outside Miami for organizational and planning purposes.

At leat three of the huge ocean tour ships based in Miami are moving up the coast to load during the meetings since traffic is expected to be snarled the entire time, among other things, from what I hear. Some of the sessions may have to be held outside Miami to diffuse the protesting, some perhaps in West Palm Beach.

If orange juice and sugar tariffs are ever removed, the Florida orange and sugar industries are claiming they will be put out of business, costing Florida millions of dollars and thousands of jobs. These are huge Florida industries and their displeasure along with many others will most certainly be heard. It's hot enough in Miami without this.

This is being discussed as an extension of NAFTA and a lot of folks I talk to are mad as hell about it. Will post an agenda if and when I can get one.

ZUBAZOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031110/markets_precious_comex_2.htmlNEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A deadly bombing in Saudi Arabia over the weekend kept COMEX gold firmer Monday morning...

A U.S. official said Monday that Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network was suspected in staging the suicide attack which killed at least 17 people and wounded 120 in Riyadh, in an effort to undermine the royal family and government of Saudi Arabia.

"If there was anybody out there who thought that everything was hunky dory, I guess he doesn't think that any more," said a bullion dealer.

"I still think it's going to go higher. Last week that's all everyone could talk about at the gold dinner," he said, referring to the annual industry event sponsored by the NYMEX.

Many still look for gold to test $400 by the end of the year.

----(from url)----

As I have mentioned a few times, I go my start at seeking "alternative information" investigating the Kennedy assassination. Your statement that Europeans are being warned not to speak of 9/11 conspiracies reminds me of the assertion of one author that in less than an hour after the shots were fired on Nov. 22, 1963, one of the Bundy brothers, speaking from the White House situation room announced to all those in the governement that there was no conspiracy and there was only one gunmen. If one was in the motorcade and heard/sensed shots coming from multiple directions, hearing the the intelligence community had announced there was only one gunman would cause one to keep one's mouth shut until events began clearer.

To my knowledge, they never got clearer.

I gather you are saying that if the US should grab the Saudi oil fields now, they would face nuclear attack from Russia and France. Interesting. How does this relate to the large number of American military planes that traveled from US to Europe/Middle East last weekend? Is this routine or is something coming up soon?

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Gold is UP about $2.50 while the dollar is DOWN about a quarter of a cent versus the Euro.

Annualised borrowings $ 2,82 Tril. divided by $ 532 Bil. of GDP-increase : 2,820 : 532 = 5,3
This debt-driven-political economical system, needs 5,3 dollars of DEBT to add 1 $ at the GDP !!! Kurt Richebacher !

Issing was send (!) to the UK with the message that Duisenberg already knew, some time ago. Recently, D. de Villepin (France foreign affairs) was also invited to the UK. His speech was thrilling (to me).
Remember, mas, how important it is that the UK joins EMU, sooner or later ! Duisenberg never worried about this and introvertly/mysteriously always smiled when questions on this subject were asked....They will join,...somewhat later though, he always murmered.

Euroland has also a big debt-load and it is also increasing.
But there are very fundamental differences between euro and dollar debt and debt-growth.

Remember the story of the debt-lion and the two running currency-prays...
Remember the difference between the dollar-gold and euro-gold concept ...
Remember Another's two ($-�) different bonzai trees...
Note that the dollar's twin deficits cannot be turned around anymore...
Note that the dollar will never give up fighting...

"With" the dollar for as long as it can..."Without" the dollar as soon as it cannot anymore.

Meant to say the dollar was UP a quarter of a cent.

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4406303912296841280ODJ Europe Precious Metals: Spot Gold Rebounds; Dlr Dictates Moves

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
London, Nov. 10 (OsterDowJones) - Spot gold rebounded Monday in early
Europe trade on the back of bargain hunting and the dollar correction, but
gains have been capped around $385 a troy ounce.
Buying has been mostly from Japan following the yen strength against the
dollar, traders said.

Goldilox: BOJ maybe wants to hold some more Au along with their mattress full of $US????

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,PAND the FORMATION will be a TRIPLE TOP !!!
The mantra is now:
$392. $392. $392.
Jump SPOT, JUMP !
<;-)

I don't know what is the specific purpose of these planes. We will soon find out if it is Saudi related or not.
I haven't been making conclusions on the ongoing multiple nuclear moves. Simply observing how the balances of power do evolve and how these could affect our common Gold-subject, directly or indirectly.
That's why I learned to leave many mysteries for what they are and simply stock them on my memory disk up until things start making sense.

And the adm.'s F.T. post on Jim Rogers does make sense to me. Jim wants to turn Gold into lead ! Whoehaa, Jim joined the London based A. Smith cabal, as I posted already, when he appeared on CNBC-Europ some time ago !
Read that F.T. article with a sharp analysing mind and conclude the subjective "tendency" (spin-talk) in this article.

US (Armitage) says : Al Quaeda wants to topple the house of Sauds ! I leave the full decodation of this to others who know the real history of Al Quaeda, aka the green legion !

Low IRs for a "considerable period"...re-election '04 !?
Same rumors from ECB ! IR hikes around Q3 '04 !? Signs of EU, dollar-support for the sake of "stability" !?

What does this means for the possible outlook for the POG over the next year to come ?
Steady to slowly rising goldprice with the classical 6$ (and multiples thereoff) swings, zigzagging more up than down. If all goes according to plans/hopes/wishes, no fireworks for POG !? But a steady and slow rise is almost guaranteed, as an anticipation of the much needed, further easy money policies as to keep on supporting everything that concerns the dollar's use/survival ! One more year of expanding debts and dollar-masses...without flagrant price-inflation-signals .

Only Greenspan could have mobilized all his proxies (allied bankers) to have this unique tour de force, realized !
I find this terrific news, dear forumers. A slow but steady ...rise. Hummmmmmm. If all goes well of course ?

As a sidenote : What if on a sudden day, 20...50 or more soldiers are murdered in Iraq in one single atrocity ?
Strengthened Japanese opposition doesn't want japanese soldiers (or peacekeepers) in Iraq !

If such an unnerving shock is suffered, then we can perhaps assume that society will risk paying a "high cost" for living this long under an inherently instable monetary structure of suppressed gold in the dollar/IMF regime.

This conclusion is if we take a cue from the recent London comment by ECB's Issing:

"Theoretical insights and central banking experience are both fundamental components of good monetary policy making, but especially so at the time of historical events.

"In order to deal effectively with these events, sound institutional arrangements play a central role. Historical evidence and theory agree in pointing out that central bank independence and a clear mandate for price stability are the basic elements of a sound institutional set-up. They provide the premises to establish credibility, to anchor inflationary expectations and ultimately deliver price stability and foster a stable macroeconomic environment.

"We must never forget this message, nor ever take credibility for granted, even at times when price stability is established and there seem to be minor challenges ahead. Credibility is hard to gain, but it is easily lost. To be maintained, it requires continuous vigilance. If lost, it can be regained only at high costs to society."

---end of excerpt---

R.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?msid=274824MUMBAI: The significance of non-oil imports as an indicator of economic recovery may get diluted considering that a large part of these now constitute imports of gold and silver. The share of these precious metals is also showing signs of overtaking the share of capital goods in total non-oil imports, in value terms.

With the falling dollar making gold imports cheaper, the value of gold and silver imports during April to May this year rose 79% to Rs 1,447 crore, compared with the corresponding period last year. This was largely on account of a rise in gold imports, which rose 90%. As against this, the total value of capital goods imported during the period rose only 16%, to Rs 1,330 crore from Rs 1,148.7 crore in the year-ago period.

In April-June ’03, preliminary figures show, gold and silver imports went up 99.9%, rebounding from a 40.9% dip in the corresponding period last year. In contrast, capital goods imports went up 35.3%, compared with 29.9% in the year-ago period. Both are major components of non-oil imports and together account for around 25% of non-oil imports, with shares roughly in the region of 12% each. Non-oil imports during the first quarter went up 25%, as against 18.6% a year ago.

http://www.genesisenergysystems.com/genesis_world_energy.htmIs anybody aware of this outfit. Is it a scam or are they for real?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK06Ag01.html"...has the potential to deliver a million barrels of crude a day to the Ceyhan terminal over the next 20 years, then to be shipped to global users via supertanker."

Oil Export Routes and Options in the Caspian Sea Region
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspgrph.html#TAB4

The main Bosphorus By-Pass line is the AMBO pipeline thru, Albania-Macedonia-Bulgaria with a capacity of 750,000 barrels per day.

A discreet deal in the pipeline
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,438134,00.html

The new Great Game
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,446490,00.html

This is looking like a pass right through resistance is emmenent....perhaps tomorrow ......
Intersting that everybody gets a freeshot tomorrow being that the market is closed tommorrow......being veteran's day ........

Someone so aptly drew the link between the Stock Markets stability and increase on declining oil price .......THe Fed and Insurance companies and all their buddies in the Mutual fund industry may have placed their collective (derivitives bets ) on stable interst rates and growth of market indices based on being able to maintain their status quo and CONTROL..their outcomes........GUess we will all get to wait and see.....after all why control Iraqui oil when you can get IRAQ and Saudi Arabia....Oil at the same time.......Will not our obfuscation of their oil funds also dry up the treasury by which international terrorism is now being funded.......Can this be pulled off??? This may cause some immediate rebellion on the part of the entire Arab WORLD which may bring WWIII sooner than later.....or an immediate interruption in the flow of oil because of terrorist activity which may DRAW CHINESE presence ........you may call it the One HUNDRED MILLION MAN MARCH ......Will there be a warning shot fired over the bow of the Aggreessive AMERICAN MILITARY MACHINE'S BOW??????/ to cease and desist? Is this going to work ???
WILL BUSH BECOME POPULAR AGAIN? WILL THE STOCK MARKET GO UP ???? WILL REAL ESTATE PRICES KKEP RISING TO ETERNITY??
and WILL EMPLOYMENT RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE GROWTH OF THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX>>>>>>>>WILL CARLYSLE GROUP BE ENRICHED BY THE SELLING OF MUNITIONS TO FEED THE PARTICIPANTS ON THE OPPOSITION>>>>> HOW WILL RUSSIA ENTER THE FRAY>>>>>???????? STAY TUNED ....to NUCLEAR AGO _GO to see the answers to your future unfold .....WITH WILD GEORGE AT THE HELM ,,,,there's never a dull day, week or month...........

Maybe , the airplanes are going to be used to destroy the CHINESE highway to the middle east. Perhaps , it's now time to invade IRAN , the second lieutenant in the "AXIS OF EVIL"

According to CNBC (and we know they are always right on - just like the Rolling Stone), only the bond market is closed tomorrow. Stocks and Comex are open for business.

From 111542, where you stated...

"my run is over"

May I ask why? Have you found greener pastures for investment or is this just a temporary lightening up for profit taking as a precaution in response to an anticipated downturn??
Rich

I think that Sinclair underestimates the effect of the tax change. Perhaps the way to look at it is what would happen if a central bank was intervening on the same side at the rate of ~$1B every business day. My observation is that CB's tend to do it in somewhat more concentrated batches, but I'll bet that even Japan's CB does not expend more than $150B per year in keeping the yen weak.

As a side note, I have seen the $1T/day statistic for the forex markets a number of times over the years. I have always thought that there is something odd about this number -- it appears to me to vastly exceed foreign trade activity -- probably by a factor of more than 100. So who is pushing all this money around? My guess is speculators speculators? If that is the case, I doubt that they have any where near $1T in total capital. Hence, the market may be much thinner than the number indicates.

All that said, I am still a big proponent of physical gold and silver. Regardless of what games they may play with the paper currencies and paper gold markets, two facts still stand. 1. The central banks can't print physical gold. 2. Per Uncle Al, "Gold is still the ultimate form of payment."

Got Physical Gold?

A few random thoughts that may play into what happens in Saudi Arabia....

First off, forget about any Arabian self-awareness of identity as what westerners think of as a "nation."

As background, the idea of a nation state is a European concept which began on the Isle de France and spread to England and Spain before getting to Germany and Italy in the 19th century. Metternich's comment in 1850 about the silliness of every little language group thinking it deserves to be a nation set the tone for the next hundred years or so as Europeans including Brits and -- later --Americans drew lines on maps to define "nations" and accidentally mess up the lives the disparate groups living inside those borders. Just ask the Ibo of a couple decades ago or the warring factions in Uganda. Or ask a Kurd or a Baluchi why there's no Kurdistan or Baluchistan.

The idea of a nation per se makes even less sense in the Arabic-speaking world where the mental construct triggered by the word "Syria" for example is that of the city of Damascus surrounded by an indefinite amount of sand that tapers off into the distance. True, the wandering Bedouin are fewer today with people having moved into the cities, but Saudi city dwellers regard their Bedouin grandfathers (and current Bedouin) with the same respect that Americans used to have for those identified as "Pilgrim fathers" or "Pioneer ancestors." And to a Bedouin, the fact that he might have wandered marginally closer to one city than another and thereby crossed a "national border" is virtually meaningless.

Apart from the lack of selfawareness of national identity or loyalty to that nation, the loyalty that does exist is indicated by the attitude of "Me against my brothers. My brothers and I united against our cousins. We and our cousins united as a tribe against the other tribes in the region." As a matter of practicality, the occasion for conflicts between regions hasn't arisen very often so there's no prewiring of the thought process that would allow for the idea of various regions uniting as a nation to war against other nations. So, it's not a coincidence that the troops of Saudi Arabia's "National Guard" under Crown Prince Abdullah (think "Army of the Interior" as opposed to the Ministry of Defence under his half-brothers) are drawn almost exclusively from the Najd region that happens to be centered around Riyahd.

With the Najd being Wahabbi Sunni and the oil producing areas being largely Shiite (and not even cousins), when things start to fall apart, the ruling family will be able to get out of Dodge faster than anybody else since the exclusive "Royal Airport" is a bit closer to town than the airport everybody else will be trying to use.

Regarding any fighting that will take place (and there won't be a lot of it), another historical parallel applies. Just as the gold of the New World allowed Spain to contract out to Belgium and Holland virtually everything that needed doing (and so become dependent on foreigners), the oil wealth of Saudi Arabia has allowed them to get in the habit of paying others to do what's needed (Filipino clerks, Korean heavy equipment operators, Yemani ditchdiggers, etc.) The cliche is that Saudi Arabia will be willing to fight to the last Yemani.

Keep in mind that despite difficult-to-defend geography, loyalties that go no higher than regional level and a total
population closer to 7 million than the reported 14 million or so, Saudis have historically been proud of not having foreign troops stationed on their soil. I don't know what the relationship is between the Saudis and South Korea (including whether Korea gets a break on the price of oil), but it's no secret that outside the oil city of Dhahran a Korean construction company has located a compound of very physically fit young men (numbered at about division-level) who look like you wouldn't want to mess with them and who just might know how to do more than operate bulldozers. With the probability that the last word from the departing royals will be "We're leaving. You stay here and fight," my thought is that with any luck, the US State Department talks to DoD so if/when there's a decision to secure the Saudi oilfields the first troops in will include troops easily recognizable as South Korean.

Implication for gold: whatever happens happens quickly, say about 48 hours after the price of gold is driven upwards by those preparing to depart and adding to their stash outside the Kingdom. Then, to the extent that those outside Saudi Arabia regard the collapse of Saudi rule as destabilizing, the price of gold continues upwards. Since all this could happen within days or a few weeks, I'd expect that commercial traders are about to go long if they haven't begun to do so already.

Caradoc

PS: for a fairly dense read on 21st century awareness versus a viewpoint based on 18th century historiography:
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/10/039.html

Maybe those "transport" aircraft that were moved from the west coast will come back here as cargo planes loaded with explosives - just like they recently warned us about.

I don't think that, but a conspiracy theorist could connect the dots that way.

I looked at the web site bout couldn't find any details on how it really worked (figures).

From what I can tell, it looks like a hydrolysis & fuel cell setup.

You start with water. Apply electrical current (energy) to break the water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen gas.

Then use the gasses in a fuel cell. Energy (electrical current) is produced, along with water.

There is, however, no net energy created. The amount of energy required for the hydrolysis is slighly MORE than the amount of energy given off by the combustion of the gasses in an engine or fuel cell.

This whole scheme is, in effect, just an energy storage mechanism (it is more efficient than batteries, however).

It would be possible to have floating ocean platforms with banks of solar cells (to generate electricity for hydrolysis) and storage tanks for the gasses.

As world oil supplies are depleted, I see a growing demand for precious metals in energy production/distribution. Especially solar cells (silver), solar furnaces (silver mirrors), electrical transmission (silver), catylists (platinum/palladium), and fuel cells (platinum/palladium). Does this leave gold "out in the cold", so to speak ? Other than corrosive-resistant electrical contacts, what other energy uses might there be for gold ?

Hello Rich...

The post was actually in jest to Fur Face who travels the outer spheres of the web boasting that gold is a barbarous relic not worthy of investment, not to mention any profits will be taken with the confiscation of gold. If he felt it was now time to go long, I was replying perhaps it would be time to short. In jest. Nothing more.

Both of these arguments I believe to be a foolish waste of time.

As far as my own positions in this market, as a professional I really cannot comment as I'd like, but I will say this. My ST opinion lies on the same page as Sinclair, my LT opinion is, "FOA's writings weren't assumptions."

Everytime I pick up some silver I'm thinking of you Rich.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

In the morning the long line assembled and began to move through the forest. The majestic trees that had caused the Goldbugs some concern in the night, inspired awe again. It was said the trees were protected by a spell that allowed them to grow so large. The odd thing is that there was not one fallen tree of its kind upon the forest floor.
The passage of the Althean forest would take a few days and the giants of the night became an amusement for the travelers. Each new night the plays of light and shadows become entertaining as each formed group tried to out do each other.
Then it happen.
The day before the Army of the Goldbugs would exit the woods, they found the missing scouts.
Those at the head of the column could see movement ahead for nature's scavengers were busily at work upon the bodies of the dead. They were secured to the trees by nail and rope and positioned on both sides of the road so they would not be missed. Sir M.K. haulted the column. He looked at his fellow Knights. Sir Black Blade and Cougar moved slowly toward them. Then other Knights dismounted and went over to catch the the bodies as Sir Black Blade and Cougar cut their bonds. As one of the fallen Knights was taken down from his place of torture a rolled parchment fell to the ground.
It was handed to Sir Black Blade and he unrolled it and began to read the message. Cougar had come to his side.
It read.
We have watched you as you have played in the forest.
If you act as children, then you will not be hard to defeat.
I say to you, turn around and go back to your castle and live the lives you enjoy, for we will come for you in the end.
Gandalf, who was at the middle of the column making sure all was well, rode forward went it stopped and saw the horrific scene.
Moving to where Cougar and Sir Black Blade were reading the message. He was then handed the paper.
Gandalf took the paper to Sir.M.K. He would read it later.
He turned to Gandalf and asked, Insure they are buried and well marked. We camp here, Gandalf.
That night the fires did not burn as bright and the shadow giants did not play with the Goldbugs.

Slingshot-----------------------<>

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031110/ap_on_re_us/trade_talks_embedding_1A piece at Yahoo about handling the potential protests. Nothing really about what the protests are all about.

MIAMI - Police preparing for large and potentially violent protests during trade talks here next week are borrowing a tactic from the Pentagon (news - web sites): They are offering to "embed" reporters in police squads.
-------------------------------
Trade officials from 34 countries will discuss creating a free trade area that will cover all of the Western Hemisphere except Cuba.
-------------------------------
The protests are expected to draw tens of thousands of people. Police want to be prepared for the kind of violence that broke out during the World Trade Organization (news - web sites) talks in Seattle in 1999. Those riots cost the city about $3 million and resulted in 500 arrests and accusations that police overreacted.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565774246&p=1012571727085Snip:

Despite the easing of concerns, a senior official at the Thai central bank on Monday warned investors of severe disruption to bond markets, if Asian economies slow, thus forcing their central banks to offload US assets. "Should Asian economies falter in the future, this could affect every country, including the United States," said Tasna Rajatabhothi, an assistant governor at the Thai central bank.

The topic was discussed at meeting of senior central bank officials, hosted by the Bank for International Settlements.

But fears of selling have so far not been borne out. Since the beginning of this year, foreign central banks' holdings of Treasuries and agency bonds have increased by $150bn, helping underpin the market. Foreign investors now own almost a half of liquid Treasury bonds.

The biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries is the Bank of Japan which, in the third quarter, spent a record Y7,551bn on currency interventions.
......................
Asian central banks have driven the increase in foreign holdings of US government debt.

According to data on the top 20 countries of origin, Asian holdings in Treasury bonds rose by more than $100bn to $744.9bn between January and August. By comparison, European bond holdings totalled $275.2bn by August.

Ian Douglas, fixed-income analyst at UBS Warburg, said:

"The $150bn increase in [Asian] central bank holdings is the equivalent of six two-year Treasury auctions."
*****************
Misetich

Astounding $1 trillion and growing by the minute

How long can this go on? Ad infinitum says Wall Street/US Feds

China has been the engine of Asia's economic growth - fuelling imports from Japan and SE Asia -

Japan's unemployment is increasing and with the recent election result the incumbent government will have more difficulty - thus a stalled political process is assured that can only damage the already fragile situation in Japan-

Japan's banks are the big lenders in SE Asia - and China is Japan's archenemy

Strange bedfellows US dependent on China-

What will the Red Dragon demand? Will the Taiwan issue be the catalyst of US $ dump or threat to do so?

There is a certain uncomfortable feeling in holding US $ investments -

Why not diversify into Physical Gold?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Snips from an article posted at Mineweb

Rhona O'Connell has departed WGC - thus no more daily report from WGC

WGC lower profile

WGC quartely trends handed over to GFMS

Closed 11 offices worlwide in last year

Promotion re: central banks has been severely cut back - now concentrating on "quiet diplomacy"

Jewelly ad campaign budget trimmed to $4 million from $55 a year ago

**************
Misetich

Awful smell coming out from WGC - implicated in the ABX lawsuit as deceiving gold investors by not including producers hedging sales as part of supply in their trend reports

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

An ironically named scientist whom I think all here would benefit from a reading of his ideas on oil formation. He has written a book about it, which I have not had the opportunity to read yet, called The Deep Hot Biosphere.

This guy is most certainly no crackpot. Here is his CV:

http://people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/vita.html#T.%20Gold%20Vita

In short, he theorizes that oil does not come from dead plant and animal material through a biological process.

Here's the original Wired article that made me take notice of him:

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.07/gold_pr.html

'World-class contrarian' indeed. Yet it appears as though he's been right more often than not.

Here's his homepage at Cornell, which has some additional info and references:

http://people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/

Interestingly, his Wikipedia entry (found at:
http://en2.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Gold ) has a reference at the bottom to another of my favorite 'back-burner-of-the-mind' items of interest - thermal depolymerization.

Another good article appears at:

http://www.juneauempire.com/Archive/September99/090599/stories/090599/Ins_oil.html

Anyway, love to hear what you guys think about this guy and his theory. Certainly has sparked my imagination...

http://fun.drno.de/flash/beer/swfLooks like the same POG pattern over Asia as Friday with subdued buying. The POG has a historical gap from the 1993 rally whereby at 393-395 gold it jumped to 402-405 and from there it jumped from 415-425. So we are seeing a heavy fight to keep it away from getting pressed up to the 395 level. We saw the paper gold shorting attacks in NY and how the physical London market held steady. The USD looks like it could go up but we have seen gold move up with a rising dollar in receint POG rallies. So what is inversive to gold that we can watch. Sinclair says the yen/USD exchange rate is the key now. If the BOJ decides to stop supporting the dollar then the dollar will come down. Then Americans buy more gold. If the BOJ supports the dollar too much and drops the yen, then the Japanese will buy gold. And the price of oil the POI from ino.com futures charts. It's right near 30 a barrel with upper channel resistance at like 32.50. The macropattern looks bullish in the long term and this past summer W. Buffet was going after natural resources properties. As the paper pump continues and money tries to find a safe home, the CRB index moves on up and it's proof of inflation and gold is the king commodity. Take Care- GR2

http://fun.drno.de/flash/beer.swfshould work

What a treat to find you back here! Have you been lurking, or on a long excursion to fascinating realms?

Now all we need is EscapeTheMatrix, and -- searching dim memory, dagnabbit! names escape me, have to search my archives on other puter -- a few other brilliant old friends.

Think we're ready to run it this time, bro?

@Carl HThis much seems plausible to me from Sinclair's arguments: that there must be a considerable quantity of dollars that would be repatriated if the tax bill is passed---otherwise, why would the beneficiaries expend the time and money to lobby Congress and the White House for passage?

So the corporations involved will do business in dollars instead of other currencies, which, granted, would temporarily increase demand for dollars. If these dollars are returned to the US, this will inflate the available supply of money here, hopefully stimulate the economy, and help keep the feared deflation at bay. Which may help the re-election efforts of the Bush Administration.

But with the intransigence of the Fed on short term rates, it would also tend to increase the slope of the bond yield curve. And this I believe would frighten foreign holders of dollars even more, regarding the long term prosepective loss of buying power of those same dollars. And so more of those foreigners would buy a little more gold with those dollars as a hedge.

There are many productive gold mines in the USA that have been mothballed for various reasons. I understand that no two mines are alike and there are innumerable technicalities involved in assessing feasibility.
However, I was wondering if anyone could make a learned guesstimate of what POG would entice say 25% of idled mines within the US back into action?
If it would help to narrow the scope some, I am considering a retirement home around Elko Nevada and I want a better understanding of the growth potential as it relates to mining activity.

Thank You

Just to add to the confusion, the Dx and Gold Spot are both up at 10:30PM PST. They must both be Eagles fans!

@ Liberty Head

I am not aware of any mines that have really been US "mothballed" although some had closed due to declining reserves and rising production costs and restarting production for the limited reserves would likely be too costly. Also, starting a new mine (any mine) or even "restarting" old mines in the US is a regulatory nightmare. Existing mines may continue to explore for "satellite" deposits on mine property and some shelved exploration projects may now get a second look as the gold price rises. It is just easier to look outside the US for new production. I think that mining is a dying industry in the US much like domestic energy production and the lumber industry.

As far as a retirement home in Elko, Nevada is concerned there are a lot of empty houses so finding one should not be any problem as the mines are not really hiring many people these days. Although I would prefer looking at nearby Lamoille, Nevada, which I believe is much nicer, located at the foot of the north end of the Ruby Range (nice alpine area hidden from the outside world. The Spring Creek area is OK except it is ruled by an autocratic "home-owners association" that has given residents a lot of headaches. There is also the "Eagle Estates" (I think that's the name) in the hilly area near the new hospital and on five-acre lots in juniper-covered country. Anyway, that's my take.


@davefinger � Thomas Gold

Thomas Gold is a physics professor at Princeton (or was) and proponent of "abiogenic hydrocarbons". He believes that hydrocarbon potential exists deep in the earth's crust and was not formed by the decay of plant and animal matter. It is an interesting idea but as yet unproven and he based his observations on the possible existence of hydrocarbon on other planets within our solar system that are devoid of biologic activity. He did convince the Swedish government to sponsor a deep drilling project on the Siljan region of fractured intrusive rock that exhibited oil seeps around Siljan Lake. The drilling went to a depth of about 7 km (I believe), however, little evidence of deep-seated oil was found and much of that was probably from the drilling activity itself. It was found to have biologic indicators that he attributed to rising through the earth's crust and therefore being "contaminated". I remain a skeptic myself but then again "nothing ventured nothing gained". That's how science progresses by someone taking a chance on a theory or hypothesis and moving forward to prove/disprove it. The Russians did something similar with a deep drilling project on the Kola Peninsula but after a few km of depth they gave up as the geothermal gradient was high enough to melt drill bits and drill pipe. Again � no abiogenic hydrocarbons were found.


@ specie-man � Gold Uses

Recently in the news there was a couple of items about Gold use in medical procedures. I did not pick up on it entirely as I really wasn't paying close attention. Though apparently it had to do with time released drug delivery in cancer patients and another about nano-technology. Also, Gold is being considered for low temperature catalysts for building enviro-systems and in combination with platinum group metals in transportation. Still, the global population is growing much faster than the supply of Gold and every day there is less Gold per person than before.


I have a couple of days left on my projects for some clients and should return soon. I am not all that surprised by the continued strength in Gold and it should remain strong as the current account, trade, and budget deficits are really putting pressure on the Fed and the US dollar. The "smart money" is bailing out of the dollar and who can blame them? Inflationary pressures are building and the Fed is "caught between a rock and a hard place" as they can't let interest rates rise and yet at the same time to attract more foreign capital they need to raise rates. Definitely a good idea to have precious metals for portfolio insurance in this environment.

- Black Blade

My place of work received an email spamming from an on-line gold seller today. Actually, the spam was in the form of a request for the recipient to use the link provided in order to ". . .complete required customer information. . .".

Now, this is a sleazy way to market anything, and the site seems to be in the paper gold business only - but I find it fascinating that a gold marketing scheme has found its way into the mainstream of Internet spam.

A sign that the idea of gold is creeping into the public conscience?

- Survivor

Thanks for the input, Jon. Hurry back, as you are sorely missed. I loved your descriptions of the Nevada hills. My favorite is the lake areas in the mountains south of Carson. When I moved from VC to San Diego, the best part of the move was the drive down 395 through the Sierra Nevada range.

Thomas Gold is actually here at Cornell University. I know some of his family. I am also a sceptic about his abiogenic hydrocarbons, but hope to see more research on the subject.

Have you considered that the US may already have effective control of the Saudi oil fields? The ties between the Bush and Saud families are very close. I am not certain that the current administration really wants a low POO. I have seen some analyses that show positive effects on the economy with a high POO. I think it is more likely that Venezuela and Iran will be the next targets of US covert/overt aggression because of their relative "non-compliance", and their flirtations with the Euro. (Some think, of course, that Venezuela already has been a target vis a vis the coup attempt.)

Cheers -r

Thanks for picking and posting the right new-stuff, Sir.
Finally, the WGC understood its superfluousness. A positive sign for the Gold-things to come, imo of course.

1 US$ Trillion Asian+EU (US-treasurious) reserves against 6 1/2 US$ Trillion of official US-Debt !!!
In other words...the planet outside the US is doing business with 1 Trillion in reserves that represent (backed by) 6 1/2 Trillion in (rising) debts !!! Let's call it...DEBT DRIVEN POLITICAL ECONOMY !

How much faster has (can) this debt to grow against the (slower) growth of reserves, before something catastrophic (dramatic change) must happen ? Is this question the decodation-translation of Randy's snippet of the mysterious Issing talk (message) ? US$ 5 1/2 more debt to add one (US$ 1) single US$ to the GDP !!!

Growing Debt is no problem when it is "covered" by an expanding economic activity. But if (less) expansion can only be obtained with (more) debt...
One can only hope that this can go on for as long as one stays on this planet. In french we say : Apr�s nous, le d�luge (let the deluge come after us).

Indeed, if and when for whatever reason, some of this US$ 1 Trillion reserves should have to be * used *...one might find out that these reserves only represent an unovercomeable debtberg. Don't throw your gold-reserves away, says the WAG !!! We (ECB/BIS) keep the POG as "unfavorable" as possibly can be AS TO NOT GUIDE YOU INTO THE TEMPTATION of using those gold-reserves to make more Debt !!!

This in sharp contrast with the power of the dollar-debt that wishes all dollar-reserve-holders to dispose off as much of their gold-reserves as possible as to condem them to REMAIN on the debt-dollar-system !!! Say hello and thanks to those International Intrigant bankers.

Things are rather simplier than one might percept ! Freegold is the smoothiest transition-tool that I can dream of. Freegold, at the right time, is not a killer, but a blessing ! A Free Gold Wealth Reserve Asset as the ultimate, flexible moving collateral.

NOT a fixed-anchored gold-standard but Gold Reserve Value that floats FREELY as to unmask the permanent confetti devaluation. As simple as can be...but ohhhhh so difficult for those who keep on wishing to "rule" (fool-infantilize-deresponsibilize) us, limitless. Game over, sooner rather than later.

Don't want to say much but you have obviously got me mixed up with someone else. You say "Fur Face who travels the outer spheres of the web boasting that gold is a barbarous relic not worthy of investment, not to mention any profit will be taken with the confiscation of gold" Where did you get that stuff from? Not from me.
Firstly I am a she not a he, and I am of quite advanced years. Fur Face is a seven year old black diabetic cat that is quite brilliant at picking race winners. He is also sometimes pressed into service to predict the timing and direction of gold moves. He has a 60% record of correct calls.
Anyway no problem, just wanted to set the record straight.
Coin Guy, I wish you may years of sucessful investing.
Its been 40.3degs here today (over 100F if you live in some backward part of the world that hasn't taken up decimal measurements) I am opening a bottle of cool wine and awaiting gold pushing above $390 soon after the NY opening.
Shalom.

With the 9/11 atrocity, a 3 decades' old chapter of many specific things, has been closed, imo Sir.
The dollar's management of the remaining oil-reserves cannot go on as it happened, before 9/11 ! Q. : What exactly is backing the planet's dollar-standard !? A. : Oil + US military force + US economy. Consider these 3 main dollar-pillars and analyse how these are changing, not for the better but for the worst.
- Oil reserves (and flow) : The euro challenge and 1,3 Billion moslims.
- Us military force : Increasingly to be challenged as well.
- US economy : Debt driven.

9/11 was the "creation" of the classical needed enemy to follow up on other previous "evils".

The houses of Saud have been "hired" (friendly) for the past decades. But can the remaining oil reserves be "bought" (manu militari)? Why is it that the bulk of the world's dramatic events are directly or indirectly, oil-related !? Oil, as one of the pillars of the dollar-standard.

Iran (its oil-reserves) have been agressed for already more than 30 years : The Shah period...Khomeiny + Saddam period...and now the nuclear thing !
With 9/11 and the WOT, the dollar's management of oil-control has taken a new dimension. How far are the US allies going to follow (agree on) this new management !?

There is a much higher goal at stake here : The US (the dollar) sees the chance of acquiring complete global supremacy since the USSR threath has almost faded away and the upcoming, fast rising, Chinese (+ satelites) dragon(s) must be contained...with nothing else than COMPLETE OIL CONTROL ! Same scenario as with Japan (previous part of a former axis-WWII)

In other words...Do the different owners of the remaining oil-reserves tolerate that the US (the dollar-!!!) + willing allies, is going to control "their" resources !?

Impossible to predict how the Saudi domino (or other oil dominos) will stand or fall ? Let the meaning of PNAC sink in and bet on the outcome of this. Altering willing and unwilling allies...economic realities...the imponderabilis of dramatic (nuclear-other) events...etc. How can we possibly predict all those things ? We can't !

But when one has detected the main stream of things...one is one step in front of anticipation. 1,3 Billion chinese, the yellow danger, are in front of us all, relatively silent for the time being. Who is going to team up with who and for what reason ? It is in this context that the euro and dollar play their role.

There is NO oil alternative, at present and for the foreseeable future. And even if there was a suitable one...do we want it to be applied !? We are no angels, but rather uncorrectable, ugly devils !!!

I have no passe-partout answer to your question (remark), Remarx. The Osama-myth will be "used"-"abused" for as long as it is practical and convenient in the evolvement of things. But when the global economy continues to detoriate, agression will increase and adversely affect the economy's chances of rebounding, genuinly. Classic viscious circle.
I see and smell a dark future and wish ardently that I have it completely WRONG !

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/09/business/yourmoney/09watc.htmlSnip:

Investors have lived through a steady stream of financial mischief in recent years. But the mutual fund scandal is worse because fund managers have a fiduciary duty to put their investors' interests first.
......................
Not anymore. And investors are noticing. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, which was taken just days before regulators moved against Putnam and was made public last week, 26 percent of fund investors said they were less likely to invest in funds because of the scandals. And 71 percent of respondents said they would "definitely or probably" move their money if their mutual fund companies came under investigation
........................
Donald Christensen, a veteran of Wall Street, saw problems looming in mutual funds long ago. ......counted the history of scandals involving mutual funds and predicted that a new one would unfold by 2000
.............................
In past fund crises, he said, investors have taken quite a while to dump their shares. "In the 1970's, the peak of the withdrawals was not during the scandals, but in the aftermath of the scandals," he said. Back then, fund managers got into trouble by buying illiquid or highly risky securities. Redemptions hit and investors suffered huge losses.
******************************
Misetich

A double whammy would be if the SM tanks and investors get a dosage of reality in the monthly Mutual Fund report - coupled with them learning their Mutual Fund Company defrauded in the past

Can it happen?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

http://www.profitresearch.co.jp/e/sitemap/index.shtmlNikkei225 ended at 10,207.04 points down 297.5. This level is below 10,219( Sep. 30,2003). And a new BEAR market is established from Nov. 11,2003.
The reasons are as follows.
1) Japanese election of Congress was ended at last Sunday(Nov. 09,2003). So that there are no needs to stimulate Tokyo stock market.
2) Puppet Fukui is keeping a destroy-Japan policy (decrease liquidity defined by Richard Werner: ref. url). So that a size of Japanese economy is shrinking very rapidly.
3) If in keeping a destroy-Japan policy, why Nikkei225 can be climbed over at 11,000 level ? Because a few hedge funds money from New York were poured into Tokyo SM, at least 20 trillion Yen, and a bubble SM were generated in Tokyo. But the hedge funds already sold out all their long positions, there are no fuels to stimulate Tokyo-SM.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=9&aid=13483Snip:

According to The Sunday Times, US President George Bush will use a forthcoming visit to the UK to express American fears over the EU Constitution.
................
Although American officials concede that the debate on the Constitution is "probably none of our business", this comes at a time when EU-US relations are strained by trade disputes, disagreements over the US Iraq policy and NATO.
**********************
Misetich

>>> I read more frequently about the potential for foreign exchange controls...ala Argentina, perhaps....should the dollar continue to wane...and maybe plummet, as our overseas contributers finally realize thier stash of dollars is a problem.....while I realize the impact it would have on the holdings of foreigners, central banks, et.al....what does it mean to domestics, like us...and in particular to holders of physical gold....paper gold, mining stocks.......or in addition, to domestic owners of foreign bank accounts and physical holdings overseas...?...any thoughts you would be willing to share ?...thanks...Jughead

It might be a good use of time for the administration to read a copy of the US Constitution.

There is a significant difference between a country like Argentina and the US. No-one is forced to use Argentinian currency outside of Argentina. I'm sure that its trading partners keep a small amount to cover the current account, but that's about it. All significant contracts to and from Argentina will be in dollars (or euros ?).

Not so the dollar, for two reasons. Firstly, the world reserve currency is backed by the US. If this backing effectively goes away for all expatriated dollars, it immediately becomes worthless, crashing the world economic system. Secondly, the US needs $1M of foreign investment per minute to stay alive. Who is going to continue to supply that if there are going to be difficulties getting it back again ?

C!

As I understand your remarks, the world and espcially Europe is trying to "fully co-operate" with the dollar system for as long as the dollar system exists. Once the dollar falls away, everybody wants to best position themselves for the post dollar world.

No player wants to be seen as doing anything that would deliberately be bringing down the whole system. Thus there are dozens of moves each with their own reasons, but which are part of this great game.

Yesterday, you posted the good news the the Europeans were committed to a low interest environment until the 3rd quarter of 2004. The justification is that this would breath enough life into the dollar system so that Bush could get re-elected. You said the consequences would be a slow and steady rise in the gold price was thus guarenteed.

As I am learning, each of these decisions have multiple interpretations. We hear so much about a gold price and an interest rate derivitive crisis that will come when gold prices rise to $400-$430 along with a rise in interest rates (it seems numerous American institutions have bet heavily on a low gold price and low interest rates).

Perhaps the European decision is to gently, but firmly, guide the gold price up to the point of American financial disaster.

A large part of this "great game" being played is for everyone not to appear to have any blame for the coming crisis.

I am increasingly interested in European "co-operation" with the Bush agenda. I think the Bush team had better watch their back.

Would I be correct in assuming that a 1% jump in gold lease rates would raise the cost of hedgers? Would that make the carry trade unprofitable? Thanks in advance.

>>>> While I didn't intend the argentina comparison to be a close scenario, I do wonder if the dollar slide accelerates to the point that it becomes a problen for our leaders, and if interest rate increases are still not effective in abating a shift out of dollars to euros, yen, or precious stuff......then I would have to believe that some measures, subtle, or not so subtle would take place.....something that would be restrictive, but not necessarily precipitating a world economic crash.....just trying to play out the various alternatives in my mind....Jughead

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=7&u=/dowjones/20031110/bs_dowjones/200311101623001320Snip:

"We have the conviction that Brazil, India and China can become the biggest economic bloc in the world in the coming decades," said Yogeshwar Varma, India's consul in Sao Paulo.
..................
Varma, flanked by Indian Ambassador Amitava Tripathi, said it's urgently necessary that this so-called G-3 bloc strengthen to reduce its "dependency on the countries that today control the rules of global trade - the U.S. and European Union (news - web sites)."
..................
n the software sector, ten Indian companies recently formed joint ventures with Brazilian ones. Meanwhile, Brazil's government has instructed all ministries, agencies and state-run companies to start using inexpensive open- source software like Linux (news - web sites) instead of paying for costly licenses from the likes of Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) .
*****************
Misetich

Much ado about nothing? Perhaps - however the message is clear, countries such as Brazil, India RESENT being dictated to by US and EU

The US would be the biggest loser if they're unable to patch up differences with Brazil and Argentina as their lofty ambition to create a North/South America free trade zone and eventually a dollarization of the two hemispheres

The GLOBAL REVOLT against US world supremacy continues. US continuosly UNDERESTIMATES the Anti-American feeling around the world.

The economic fallout of this UNDERESTIMATION is staggering.
The current spat with EU in both the political arena (see EU constitution post below) and economic (trade war, tariffs and EU asserting itself against companies such as Microsoft) does not bode for the Anglos and the dollar camp. The success enjoyed by the US in the past was achieved through the co-operation of their friendly allies the Europeans.

Tremendous resources are now being spend attempting to split EU through various means. Various deals, arm-twisting, $ giveaways (bribes) is underway by the US to win over countries such as Turkey, Poland etc.

However the US efforts are being countered by EU (France - Germany) pressure on those same countries - limiting EU much needed help for them

On the South America front - the alliance of Brazil and Argentina and their rebellion against US dicated terms puts ANOTHER nail in the coffin.

Elsewhere, Russia's threat to sell Oil in Euro's, and Iran not too far away from that position as well adds additional woes

The mismanagement of US foreign policy vs "terrorist" threat is becoming unamanageable in economic terms as billions of $ are being spend as well as overstretched militarily on too many fronts

Once again the underestimation of Anti-US deep rooted feelings in Muslim countries is taking a toll as US resources are being wasted unproductivily.

The "terror war" in not winnable, as the enemy is not a country thus harder to eliminate. On the contrary, the "successes" achieved by these so classified enemies makes them stronger as they achieve their goals being disruption and chaos.

The battle goes on daily. The US economy and US $ has a non-winnable fight on their hands as political actions overflow in economical ones

All On Aboard The Gold Bull Express

I pretty much agree with your assessment, Belgian. I was speaking only of the short-term, in which I think Iran and Venezuela may be the first targets. How Europe reacts will be interesting. I just re-read 1984 this weekend. Perhaps I should be talking about Oceania, Eastasia and Eurasia. :^)

I know how you feel ! I have started to re-read the Goldtrail - I first read it in September of '02 according to the printout. There are many things which I remember being completely incomprehensible back then which now appear perfectly clear. However, there have been new developments taking place in the last couple of years, which FOA didn't take into account and may change the final outcome. It feels a little like in Asimov's Foundation trilogy where the folks are waiting for the (third ?) recording of Harry Seldon, only to find that history has not taken the calculated path because of an unpredictable mutation. But that's what this Forum is for !
C!

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

The story at the link tells of events which, in their
essential nature and character, constitute an open act of
war against the United States by those mortal enemies of
ours who employ the effects of finance and economics as
weapons in their perpetual attempts to destroy us. We knew
to expect this of course. And there is little doubt how it
will end. The World Trade Organization will be destroyed
by some means, or else it will metamorphose into a
different, less easily recognizable form. Either of these
events could happen in a flash, at one time or another.
But do not be fooled. It will not become a butterfly. And
the European Union will gradually lose its effectiveness
to the indigenous peoples of Europe. This may take a
hundred years, or even several hundred. Before that
starts, it would surprise me if the United States is
revived as a nation, in anything near to the form that we
so recently knew. (I am not in favor of its demise; I am
merely telling you the significance of the news.) The
reason for the probable outcome, as I seem so clearly to
see it, will most likely take the form of a lack of any
response in the degree or of the type required in
defeating such attacks. Our preferred and traditional
arteries of national accomplishment have now become too
brittle and corrupt to effectively adapt to the pragmatic
realities which the other nations of the world necessarily
present to us, and they are clogged with the deadly plaque
of the politics of selfish interests, along with other
scourges of corruption and abuse, which cling to the
artery walls like cholesterol to a heart disease patient,
waiting to come unglued, at which time our Institutions of
Public Failure and Confusion will become entirely cut off
from whatever ability our government may presently have to
realistically confront our would-be-mortal enemies.

As usual, while the world falls apart before our eyes,
gold could make the difference between a fortunate
personal survival and an unfortunate passage into an
unfamiliar world, or, worse, a measly existence in this
world, scrounging for food around America's old highways,
for example. But to benefit from this real potential
aspect of gold, you must have some. Therefore, if you were
me, you would get some, or, if you have some already,
you'd get more. Buy it here. I've done it. So can you.
It's highly recommended.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=462607
Sorry about that.

Has anyone ever posted a succinct (say one or two page) summary of the ANOTHER/FOA trail postings? I know it is complex, but an ideal overview would have links to details in the messages. Just curious, since the amount of time & effort required is substantial. It might help folks to decide whether to read further.

A hearty salute to all the Armed Forces veterans among the table-round stalwarts.

I thank you for your service.

Wky

Most, if not all, co-operations are "opportunistic". Even the ideological ones.
Apply this to the Gold-matters : Co-operation on Gold-containment for as long as it suits a majority (or ruling minority) to stay under the dollar-regime. That's why the dollar-block keeps on dividing those who evolve to more euro-consciousness. UK's anti euro stance.

This is part of the competing play between dollar and euro.
Remember that Freegold is not making sense under the present dollar-regime and that Freegold can only exist when there is that euro-gold-associating currency as to make it possible to freely switch from Gold to euro and vice versa, according to the general appreciation/evaluation of the euro's management on currency/price-stability.

I don't know if Trichet is going to try something spectacular as to influence the coming US elections ?
But I see Madeleine Albright and Clinton, lobbying here in Euroland.
The looming (EU-US) trade wars (tarifs) are also a pressure tool (Pascal Lamy), aimed at the Bush administration,imo. We are talking about $-� billions if effective ( EU has WTO backing).

We must all realize that when the dollar confetti reserves start the goldrush ...the concept of Freegold and its associated �-currency must be "in place" and workable !!!
The right thing at the right "moment" !

In the mean time Gold's (price)revaluation can run up in anticipation and proportionate to the euro's succes or failier.

The euro is NOT in a hurry to replace the dollar-system !
The euro just has to stay "one" step in front of the dollar as to avoid been devored by the debt-lion ! This principle is the cause of confusion amongst many observers. think deep about the advantages (for the euro AND GOLD) of such a strategy.

Keep on posting, WR !

Nobody wishes what you dramatically call an "American financial disaster" ! We are ALL co-responsible for having accepted and co-created the existing dollar-system !!!
But it simply has reached the end of its lifetime and the euro alternative has been architected, holding the advantage of the doubt !
This is not a weekend box match with a clear winner and loser, but a long evolving steady process.

Most observers wish to see and live through dramatic action. The sept.'99 POG spike was a spectacular move WITHOUT COLLATERAL DAMMAGE ! Let's keep it this way, FOR THE SAKE OF ALL UF US.

Indeed WR, the euro doesn't want to have the reputation of a dollar-terminator, but rather the genuine authority of a stable and reliable currency within an associated new Freegold market ! The new euro-way of proceeding after 150 years of very bad, destructive behavor !!! The national hymne of Euroland is...All men should be brothers ! Much less "confrontation" and much more "consultation".
Far from perfect but at least a new model on wich we try to comply as good as possible.

The euro must give evidence of superior stability-reliability in the coming storms. Remember that the euro recovered asap from the initial brutal dollar attack that brought it down more than 30% against the dollar !!! Think about this as evidence for what I'm saying (personal opinion).

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

400 just a huff & puff away !

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor318280This is not the scientific abstract requested, but an impressionist's view.

In the early "Kitco" days, ANOTHER warned that all paper would burn. He explained the dollar float and said that the spark that would start the fire would be Saudi Arabia, demanding gold payment for oil. ANOTHER hinted that the current gold market is a two-tier market! One market for individuals trading small amounts of gold and one market for the Central Banks. At the Inter-Central_Bank market, he claimed that gold price is already at 3000-6000 dollars per ounce. He even had a rather attractive illustration (which I cannot reproduce here from memory), comparing available numbers from LBMA & COMEX and supporting his thesis. In those days, there was also a poster named "Big Trader", who was later hinted to be (a representative of) Chinese Central Bank.

In mid 1999, Aristotle wrote a summary of A/FOA thesis, possibly coming close to what you request.
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor318280
At that time, he was mentioning "past sound money days", and disliked "modern attempts to centrally manage the economy". "Gold is, in fact, Money, while the dollar and others are merely currencies--an importance difference!", he said.

After 1999, they became Euro-enthusiasts. The urgency and "fire warnings" faded. A more gradualist approach was taken. Then came the Free Gold and "gold is wealth not money" approach.

Best Regard,
An Impressionist

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23947-2003Nov10.htmlI read a very interesting post yesterday on USAGOLD here. The writer Caradoc summed up an Arab worldview which puts everyone against them. After yesterday's news of:


GI Kills Head of Council in Baghdad Slum,

From the actical it seemed our men over there fulfilled their duties. Did Mr. Kaabi perform a sucidal act by forcing his right to drive into the compound. Probably by western standards. Of course one could say that he would rather die that be humiliated.

In effect, Arabs have very little evidence to change how they think others feel about them.

Of course Arabs and goldbugs agree on gold. I shook hands with an Arab (Christian) and couldn't help but notice his ring that looked like it was atleast an ounce and a half. I asked him about it and he said it was a gift from his father. He seems rather proud of it. I was impressed.

Of course Muslim men don't wear gold. They do put it on their women though. It isn't uncommon to see a woman wearing a kilo of it at a celebration.

is this true?

In mid 1999, Aristotle wrote a summary of A/FOA thesis, possibly coming close to what you request.
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor318280
At that time, he was mentioning "past sound money days", and disliked "modern attempts to centrally manage the economy". "Gold is, in fact, Money, while the dollar and others are merely currencies--an importance difference!", he said.

gold is money? what the heck you just got doner telling me it was property but in the archives you say its money? now im confused again or did your views change after much deliberation. just like mine are ? what the deal can u elaborate on the discrepencies on one hand you tell me gold is property in fact you threw in the towel after i went with honest money, but now this surfaces, no no aristotle im not dising you im just trying to clarify this slippery slooppe im on. is gold money or is it property? your opinion i respect. i just want to know which one you belive in now>

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031111/markets_precious_europe_3.htmlLONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Gold moved up in sluggish, thin trade on Tuesday, with the market
making half-hearted attempts to sustain a rise above $388.00 an ounce, but dealers said a spike up towards seven-year highs scored recently could be on the cards soon. Traders said activity was quiet due to Veterans' Day holiday in the United States. The precious metal has garnered support in its safe-haven guise this week from a deadly weekend bombing in Saudi Arabia. A weaker dollar and stocks, along with higher oil prices have also helped
investor flows into gold recently. Spot gold (XAU=) was quoted at $388.15/388.85 an ounce by 1601 GMT, after hitting a high
of $389.00 earlier. That also compared with $386.00/386.75 quoted in New York late on Monday. Japanese buyers were attracted to the market during Asian trade after the yen (JPY=) matched a three-year high at 107.85 against the dollar.

Traders noted buying from a major investment bank in European trading, which it then sold back, leaving gold flat in the morning before a recovering euro took the market up within fairly
narrow ranges. "The market seems to be trading its range between 386.00 and the today's high at $389.00
-- we're at the upper end of it now. Things are ebbing and flowing in preparation to go up I think," said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Bank.

Goldilox: The Japanese are using strong YEN numbers to accumulate shiny! Even Euroland bankers are watching for a test of $400. I hope they're right!!!

@Steady, Ari-

Is it floor wax or a dessert topping? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gang8/message/9560
The dollar,however'should be booed off the stage.

In the meantime,there's always sanctuary in the real money.

Ford Motor Sweetens Incentives on F-150 Pickup Truck (Update5)
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. increased discounts on the 2004 F-150 pickup truck, one of its most profitable vehicles, two months after introducing a version that was supposed to reduce the need for incentives that erode earnings.

The world's second-largest automaker by sales cut loan rates on the new F-150 pickup truck to as low as 0.9 percent and will offer rebates to buyers who switch from other brands.

http://www.actforchange.com/liberty/flash.htmlA remembrance linked above, of what actual warriors, who didn't get to make speeches, or collect approval ratings, have fought for.

And Soros -- offering million$ to defeat Bush -- damned lib'rals at it again! (Rightwingers take their millionaires for granted. Hey, what's a monopoly about, anyway!)

(My conspiratorial side, pushing aside my sympatico side, digs back and wonders "Now, isn't Soros one of those Euro guys? Front for some int'l banking entities? Is Bush going to end up face down in one of the giants' footsteps?")

"GI Kills Head of Council in Baghdad Slum " (7nomads link to it below)-- does something about "destroying the village in order to save it" pop into mind here? Anyway, the tipping point of governing by local post-Saddam consent is slipping out of view here, window of opportunity -- if it was there -- vanishing into exchanges of gunfire.

Did anyone else see the Tommy Lee Jones, Samuel L Jackson "Rules of Engagement" 2000 film about US marines under fire slaughtering a crowd of Arabs? Dead ahead in real life.

Remarx: I've thought the same thing -- the 2-page summary of A/FOA, from a current perspective. Perhaps a work-in-progress on one of Randy's blackboard pages? With appended commentary from us following it? And yes, the possibility that we might be following an old trail, instead of an updated one we missed the new markings to, even while celebrating the prescience of those two sages' early alarm to the Dollar's timeline.

Misetich: Brazil, China, India -- if I was a US young'un prospecting for future wealth in world trade, I'd haul out my backpack and head for those 3 shores with an entrepreneurial gleam in my eye. (Brazil last, of course, might not make it past the beach in Rio.)

Now, off to dig up Caradoc's post yesterday on Arab worldviews.

And then, proudly echoing Black Blade's years of inspiration -- OFF TO THE GYM! I find I've dropped 20-40 pounds of lifting capacity on the machines since 10 years ago when I entered my latest fitness-romance-marriage cycle. Sheesh! Scary, if I wasn't on the way to getting it back. I didn't realize what I had back then, and threw it away carelessly. With aging, the need for vigilant pursuit of health is greater. And it's cheaper, much cheaper, than doctors and MRIs, etc. LIVE TO ENJOY YOUR WEALTH!

A while back, I posted my take on the writings of Another/FOA - an essay on where we've been, where we are, and where we are going. A bit of pure "what if" speculation. Here is the newly-edited (but basically the same) version:


Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005
A speculation by "specie-man" - 10 November, 2003

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see (COMEX) - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the intentions of these major buyers are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher (by orders of magnitude) in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This monstrous gold price increase would signal the beginning of a new world order. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly in the last four years, but the rise has been relatively gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when their last chance will be to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as towards an explosion in the price of gold (as a result of a crashing US Dollar):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

3.
Inflation/stagflation starts taking hold in Japan, China, and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. Bad debts are monetized en-masse (paid off by "printing" large quantities of the local currencies). This is highly inflationary. To forestall hyper-inflation, Asian central banks will be forced to cash in some of their dollar reserves to bail out large debtors (commercial banks, etc.). This will bring an end to the "strong dollar" policies of those governments. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

2.
Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they will no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, and a revulsion for US foreign policies, some oil-producing nations begin switching their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

1.
The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself. The commercial shorts will break and run as people world-wide attempt to take delivery of gold. Some major financial institutions will fail as a result.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have the need or ability to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. The US dollar will become the "laughing stock" of world currencies - akin to some of the weak currencies of the Central American and South American regions. All this occurs just as the first wave of American "baby doomers" are scheduled to retire. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.


Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant world-wide wage inflation (but world-wide commodity prices are now escalating). When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear, as is talk about doing something about the bad debts in Japan, and bad debts rapidly increasing in China. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now increasing. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, it will end in a stalemate - a moral victory for the longs. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming fairly soon.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards in an economic upheaval of epic proportions ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. ! Lacking any unexpected triggers, the countdown will finish during the Fall of 2005.

>>> "Is Bush going to end up face down
>>> in one of the giants' footsteps ?"

Now that was a good one !

Can't help but notice your ever growing predictions and opinions over the last few weeks. I haven't decided if this is a good thing or a bad thing, perhaps neither.

You mentioned the possibility/probability of WWIII. Perhaps you could categorize this numerically? As a percentage of chance, let's say.

In recent days there are grandiose discussions of America's wishes to secure Saudi's oil. Has Iraq's oil been secured now? Time to move on/forward?

I have been informed by my son that my quest for gold is honorable but it is on the wrong path. Apparently his university lectures have decided that control/access/ownership etc. of remaining oil reserves will dictate the outcome of economies/currencies/politics/etc., etc. Gold's future is merely a 'derivative' (sorry about this poor choice of the word) of the 'oil outcome'.

If this is all true, or mostly all true, then I wish to discuss with you my points raised thusfar being:

a) WWIII
b)outcome of oil, specifically America's quest for ME oil


Thank you.

thank you for this synthesis ..........
and Parameter to countdown

I too think there is reason to believe many nations are
moving toward a large war. I warned my relatives of this
ten years ago. And also of hyperinflation. The signs were
apparent then, and have increased since. It is happening
extremely slowly, but with inevitability, like a glacier.

Thanks for an understandable, straight forward synopsis of an ackward, non-transparent, figure-it-out-if-you-can collection of thoughts.
Rich

Thank you! If the article by specie-man and the "impression" by ge have not already been nominated for the HOF, I would like to do so. They are both excellent in their own ways at providing an overview -- something I can pass on to friends and family.

Thanks indirectly to Aristotle, too, for his already existing article -which I intend to look up tonight. And to Mr. Gresham for saying what I wanted to say better.

Cheers -r

Good grief, that post old post of mine is a real train wreck, isn't it?

The primary problem is I was on my own steep communication learning curve at the time and failed utterly to convey some importance nuances with my very sloppy or imprecise use (or should I say misuse) of words. Fortunately the sentiment remains valid, but only if you know how to crack my code. The problem was that I was more focused on the Gold mechanics, and treated the monetary side of the issue rather shabbily.

You know, it probably wouldn't be too hard for me to offer an edited/wordsmithed version that employs consistent terms with my latest usage especially with respect to currency vs money vs wealth/property. In fact, it was partly to redress the utter mess I had made with sloppy syntax in that June/July 1999 post that just half-a-year later I was pursuaded to lay out what became my February 2000 tome on the "Proper role of Gold in the Monetary System."

I'm not promising that that second piece would stand up perfectly under the closer scrutiny I could give it armed with my present vocabulary, but I guarantee the syntax found there holds up more consistently well than in the first piece.

Maybe I can get everyone's permission to brush that one up, too. Randy willing, I should say. Sheeeeeesh..... I dunno what I might be getting myself into. Those were looooooooong. I don't think I've read them through since they were authored, but seeing the excepts you provided made me shudder to the point that I can't imagine leaving them as is; i.e., trainwreck! The UNDERLYING messages remain well and good, but the messenger (me) sure garbled his task. Let that be a lesson to everyone -- never send a lightweight in to do the heavy lifting. That said, I probably owe it to someone/everyone to decode that pile of goo into words that make sense to TODAY's enlightened reader. Basically, to render it into state of the art terminology would be consistent with my post of October 14th.

Can do. Or not.

Gold. Get you some. (Wealth/Property) --- Aristotle

Specie-man: Nice job on your analysis. We'll all be watching the fuse.

Belgian: Continued informative posts. "Now this Euro-thing...is Gold going to drive the value or quantity of them--or vise/versa, eventually?

There definitely does seem (to me anyway) to be an evolution in THOUGHTS beginning with the mysterious ANOTHER and ending with Sir Douglas. Enroute to who knows where, a certian "Aristotle" did appear and play a supporting role. While respecting your commentary on the gold market, I still believe there to be more than one "Aristotle". I have stated this opinion on more than one occasion.

Anyway, I do find the evolution curious as pointed out (perhaps unwittingly) by I believe a certain "ge". What began as a gold for oil diatribe has culminated in Euro for one and Euro for all; gold is for saving one's receivables for labor inputs ad infinitum. While I do own both physical gold and Euro in sizable quantities, I wonder about the agendas of all who seem to be, "in the know" or at the very least who represent an absolutist and unitary view of the gold market's peculiar dynamics.

We do live in interesting times and monetary history is definitely being written. However, my association with the subjects de jeur at this table have made me too much the cynic and skeptic to ever (again) throw my lot in with ANOTHER (im) poster.

Kind regards and good luck to you...CM

Good Morning BaghdadGeneral Vows to Intensify U.S. Response to Attackers
By JOHN F. BURNS

Published: November 12, 2003


BAGHDAD, Iraq, Nov. 11 � Stung by the deaths of nearly 40 American soldiers over the past 10 days, the top American military commander in Iraq spoke of a "turning point" in the conflict on Tuesday and outlined a new get-tough approach to combat operations in areas north and west of Baghdad, strongholds for loyalists of Saddam Hussein.


"The longer you look back, the farther you can look ahead"

Winston Spencer Churchill
(WC was a practical genius and a decorated veteran of Afghan, Egyptian and South African campaigns; unlike current "leaders" who shall remain anonymous)

aristotle . no that post istn a train wreck. Rather it is a golden beacon.
a beacon to every individual to think it thru , to clarify for themselvs as to what is going on.that what you think today may not actually be the truth and what you know next week may be a lil closer or a lil farther its an evolving thing. someone , maybe you, said the more you read the more you understand. If you can do it then i can do it t00. clarify it that is. Belive me if i can do it anyone on planet earth can do it as well.

gold get you sum condensed property today.
$ 2

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=10&t=c&a=12
I find this simply incredible. Gold is just sitting there
like a relaxing duck, waiting for the dawn. The water's
calm, and when light comes, he will fly up into the sky
like that spiritual lark which even ballerinas dream of.

Unless of course it takes its habitual turn which I am
sure you have noticed, namely, its obstreperous tendency
to follow that path whose future shape defies all prediction.

But hey, you can't blame it. Some of us are like that.

Sir Nation: Gold is trapped in a meandering oscillation between increasingly higher support lows and recent consistent resistant highs. The market (futures) seems in the hands of those speculators with no compelling desire for this market and they are therefor content to take profits as gold repeatedly retraces it's well-worn and oft-trod path between the recent $377 lows and stubborn $392 ceiling.

Physical demand seems to be improving and moving the floor higher. However, we tend to buy the dips rather than to chase the rallies, therefor, we may need an "event" to give the commitment needed to long term buyers in the speculative market; and the momentum needed to blast through that $392-395 area.

The "event" could be of financial or political nature and could happen at any time, anywhere. Turning gold more toward a monetary safe-haven and away from the short term commodity play-thing of the speculators.

-----------Gdome

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htmSnippet:

"I often receive emails asking for my views on the US stock market, per se, and my response rarely engenders enthusiasm. Why, I ask, do you want to focus on an item denominated in an extremely volatile variable, the US$. Those who focus on the stock market, per se, tend to misread the advances in the 30s and 70s as true, when they seem to me more a function of currency debasement. Thus my fetish for viewing the equity market in a world of unanchored money in terms of Gold. As today's graph depicts, in terms of Gold, the equity market rally of 2003 looks far less impressive.

Another reason for my focus on commodity convertibility in monetary analysis lies in my efforts to strip away the commercial effects on inflation indices. Leaving aside the more technical complaints of hedonic adjustments, the more I think about the composition of the CPI, the more it seems to be obfuscatory than clarifying. In the world of stable vs. the US$ commodity prices that prevailed from 1981-1999, the gentle rise in the CPI over that period was, to me at least, more representative of the rise in corporate profits than inflation. A populace conditioned to accept small doses of inflation wasn't concerned with annual 2-3% losses in purchasing power."


Druid: If "King Dollar" is on fire, I hate to imagine the outcome of those instruments denominated in them. Also, Japan's "POLITICAL WILL" appears to be changing. Could we actually be at the initial stages of a bank write down for those that need to go under?

Protoss msg#111628: I'm not in the predictions business, Sir. Only communicating ideas,reflections, suggestions and my personal opinions as to have an "exchange" of views and insights in constructive debate. To learn and develop.

WWIII, is imo, already taking place. An unknown (unreported) amount of people are dying, daily, everywhere, everyday. I strongly suspect a "nuclear" accident, again. This, to finalize the globalizing (attritional) war for oil. Hiroshima/Nagasaki all over again !? Needles to say, that I hope, it want materialize !

Your son has it right about the evolving oil matters, but he may have it completely wrong on the final outcome for Gold !!!

It is NOT only America's quest for oil, but the world's quest for the future of the remaining reserves. This war on/for oil brings a lot of other conflicts (religious-territorial-economic-ideological-etc...) to the surface and make the original oil/currency/powerstruggles, picture, opaque.
The list is endless and growing.China, N.Korea, India/Pakistan, Russia, Middle East...etc

My Hopes are: That the global economy is NOT collapsing and global common sense wishes to prevail.
Recent example : Strong EU delegation (UK-included) took initiatives on the Iran nuclear matters. Completely ridiculed by the US ! Evidence for continued polarization (indirectly $-�), regardless of having it right or wrong.

The developping fight for oil-control (price-flow-availability-ownership) is promoting itself to the center of the growing disputes. And, right or wrong, I do associate this with the ending of the dollar's lifetime.

I have not the slightiest idea on the final outcome on this. Simply hoping that we can get over it without dramatic, cruel solutions. That's all, Protoss. What's your prognostication ? TIA.

Goldendome (nice handle) : Gold and the euro are at each others' service. The International Monetary System evolves towards another "standard" experiment. Freegold !
If and when the euro should succeed in replacing the dollar as reserve-currency...more euro should have more stability, through the Freegold concept. Growing amounts of Physical Gold Wealth Reserve Asset in EURO, freely fluctuating in value against all currencies, as a new modern, flexible standard. In and out of Gold ...Your Gold and its value, will tell each and everyone of us, exactly, how wealthy we really are. Your wealth, today, is measured in worthless confetti. Because all confetti is NOT Gold associated anymore. We are all on the virtual value of the dollar...dollar-debt-derivatives.

FreeGold needs an associated currency ! It was the dollar then...it might be the euro, sooner or later. A shift from backed by Gold to "associated" with Gold. Not the confetti in front, but FREEGOLD ! And for the next 2 generations, oil will become increasingly as important as Gold, because of its depletion and no replacing alternatives for the immediate future.

In other words...BACK TO THE RECOGNITION OF THE REAL BASIC VALUES on wich we can expand soundly !!!

The importance of Iranian oil to Japan is already well documented. No need to expand on this.
But, todays statistics reveal that China's crude oil imports from SAUDI ARABIA are increasing by 32% for '03 !!!
Is this message clear, fellow forumers ? Thoughts ?

12 Italians murdered ! How will the willing partners of the coalition react ? Pull back and leave the US on its own ?
This is my fear and reason why I suspect that something very stupid might happen.
Coincidently, Arafat states his recognition of the state of Israel !?

a) IMHO, we have the signal that the dollar is about to start another downleg - E1 > $1.16. Very gold bullish!

b) SpecieMan - I agree that all your points are symptoms of an insane credit boom centered on the US, but think we are much further along than point 3, since we already have heavy personal/state debt in the US, a burgeoning US trade deficit, a steep yield curve and plenty of evidence of peaking real estate prices - take London, for example. REaltors will never post the true prices but I know from friends who are trying to sell that the true transaction prices in the upmarket areas are 10-15% below the advertised prices.

As for the Asian players: a) it's not long since the Yen was at 116 and the long bond at 116. Now both are at 108. Do the math and in Yen terms, the Japanese investor in Treasuries has taken a 13% haircut in 3-4 months. Ouch! The Japanese government may well swallow this loss as the cost of continuing to do business with the US - but the Japanese private investor? - I don't think so!

b) all the evidence suggests that the Chinese are buying commodities like there's no tomorrow. After all, why risk a diplomatic incident by dumping your reserves in New York, when you can offload them onto gullible 3rd world countries who will sell you what you really need. Going back to the point about the formation of the Brazil/RSA/India axis - there is a weak link in the argument because at least the Brazilian elites still believe that the greenback is a hard currency.

Hence you're right that the demise of the dollar will manifest itself in global commodity inflation. It is already happening I just think that the US is becoming like the British or Austro-Hungarian Empire. Everyone else is incensed by the arrogance of its leaders but no-one wants to see it disappear because they're afraid of what comes next.

The Chinese must be highly amused at this all since they have a strong currency waiting in the wings (the Yuan) but their trading partners would rather be paid in a weak currency (the greenback) because it has strong 'brand recognition'. In this sense, Sir Alan wasn't joking about the $ being a 'strong' currency.

Having spent most of my life living with crappy currencies, however, I don't think that the dollar is going to disappear anytime soon. It will merely lose its utility as a store of value and will serve only as a means of exchange. Look at the steady but ultimately huge decline in sterling in the post-war period which was eventually halted by relatively sound economic policies and North Sea oil (although this halt may turn out to have been a 20-30 year interlude).

c) I know that this is a gold forum and not a gold stock forum, but there is an important point to be made about LeMet Caf�'s piece about Randgold wanting to go after Golden Star/IAM etc. I think that we are looking at a period of substantial outperformance of gold stocks re Gold because the only way for the larger miners to grow is through M&A (in this sense gold stocks are better than dot coms - it is as if Microsoft had shut down all its R&D and had no internal product pipeline to grow earnings).

The inference is clear - we are on the verge of a paper-financed M&A boom in which absolute share prices will become irrelevant. It may well be that this is what ends the Cabal's manipulation of gold, since natural selection will no doubt work within investment banks, giving a selective advantage to the corporate financiers who are generating huge fee income from such deals over the bank's prop traders who are throwing money into a black hole by trying to keep POG down.

Evidently, this stock boom has a sell-by date on it, since by the time we get to $600 gold, the money will be pouring into overvalued majors that have no more earnings leverage to POG or into incredibly flaky juniors with terrible grades. At this point, it will be better to hold bullion itself.

There's no illusion at all and your mind isn't deceiving you. I certainly am *NOT* the same man you met once upon a long time ago!!

Each day, I lay down to my evening rest an improvement over the man who awoke that morning. It's a Growth thing, and nothing to be ashamed of. Plateaus are but campsites on the overall climb to the pinnacle, so you shouldn't fault me for not taking up a permanent address.

Gold and Growth. Got me some. --- Ari

The key to demise of US dollar is Asian economies. When they slow, central banks start to unload US assets. What will make them slow down? US protectionism, which is now being constructed in US congress. I think Americans reaching upper limit of pain threshold for this to happen.
Go gold.

If we do not evolve in our thinking, then what is the purpose of this forum? To throw words to the wind?

It is interesting that markets can be described in so many
ways. As someone interested in language, I find the
explanations and metaphors that marketeers use to be
revealing -and very constrictive- in their nature. While
their descriptions do seem to hold a kind of harmony with
market events in a reflective sense, they seem often to
forget that the words people use affect people's behavior,
both individually and especially in groups, and there
seems to me to be a real need for a better handling of the
abstract ideas that are used in verbal expressions
concerning markets. By making the terminology less
explanatory and more accurately descriptive, with regard
to the movements of prices and other factors, underlying
truths about markets could be more easily discovered and
the overall picture could be made more real. The verbal
elements used in talking about market behavior would
benefit from being broadened to include concepts which, so
far, have remained unverbalized, though they have been
perceived and many of them apparently have been
comprhended. This is probably the way a bureaucrat would
say it. But I was a bureaucrat. Maybe this is better: By
using more carefully conceived terms to describe markets,
market behavior would become better understood.

Every writer finds out sooner or later that it is by means
of the process of forming our thoughts most accurately
into words that we come to discover what the truth is and
manifest it into the world and in our lives. It isn't the
only way. But it is one of the best ways I've found.

Momentum builds.

PA

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1 Silver is going straight up!!

"...we tend to buy the dips rather than to chase the
rallies, therefore, we may need an "event" to give the
commitment needed to long term buyers in the speculative
market...."

Yes. I agree that is right. It was a long time before I understood it. It shows why there is always a need for a Caeser. And even Caesar needed an "event" to assure his confidence before crossing the Rubicon, on his way to invading Rome with his loyal army. It took the form of one of his soldiers, who understood what was about to happen, and who ran out into the river as though to go across it. Caesar took this as indicating his army would follow him, and he was right. But it is crucial that we make a distinction and more fully realize that it is not merely such events that furnish reason for what we do, but we ourselves, and that only when in doubt of our own abilities and purposes do we look to the heavens and try to find our fate written in the stars.

Caesar's name should be spelled "Caesar."

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=dmaxIs the current FED deflation risk stance a con job? Is there really any risk of deflation? The world does seems awash in cheap asian/indian labor, yet the price of commodities is soaring. As the CPI drives higher, maybe rising above 3%, how long is the FED going to hold the line? Rising inflation and stagnate wages (falling real wages) could create a recession even IF the FED keeps the FF low.

What is the meaning of considerable?

My clock doesn't have that on the hands of time.

that on a day when gold is up $5 and the dollar down a cent and a half versus the euro, the dow is up 45.

Bob Pisani was just explaining that gold passed through the $390 Put/Call point. He even mentioned the resistance point at 392 and the volume increased as we passed through. Liz exclaimed "We are very close to the psychlogical $400 level." Are these guys gold analysts now, or what? They're funny to watch, but I DO appreciate the fact that gold charts show up on the screen a few times every day now. A long way from the no coverage of 2002 and early 2003.

With all their "objective analysis" it's fun to watch them squirm as GE stock drops (supposedly due to Fund redemptions). It must hit home pretty hard on their ESSPs and 401Ks.

Joe says "GE has been seriously underperforming the indexes." Read between the lines, I hear "Please buy my company's stock, folks, the kids need new shoes!"

is in danger of being breached. Will this be the long awaited commercial signal failure day?

The gold price has done very well lately, as though the average one tonne per day reallocations over the past two reporting weeks within the Eurosystem were not reaching the market at all. Imagine that. Since October 27th, 10 tonnes (of what I presume to be Dutch gold) have left the Eurosystem books.

This is all within the bounds of the maturing 1999 Washinton agreement, in which the Nethlands remains the most conspicuous EMU member with a pre-announced yet untapped quota. The Swiss remain the largest WA participant in this final year of the Agreement, but you will recall that they are outside the EMU.

Getting back to the footsteps, the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem for the past two weeks in aggregate show this strategic 10 tonne decline in gold and gold receivables as a 105 million euro drain on Eurosystem reserves.

More significantly, this same two week period has revealed portfolio transactions to have allowed the net financial position in foreign currency to drop by 1,300 million euros in reserve value.

Thus, the gap between paper and gold reserves being held continues to narrow, with the foreign currency position sliding to EUR 190.0 billion while the gold reserves are currently anchoring the books at EUR 130.7 billion in value.

Furthermore, I hasten to add that that gold valuation is based on the previous (Sept 30) quarterly mark-to-market valuation of EUR 302.048 per ounce. Today's actual market valuation for gold has climbed to the neighborhood of EUR 337 per ounce, so in fairness, you could revalue the Eurosystem's current gold reserves upward by a multiplier of 112%. To do the math for you, this yields gold reserves with a street value of EUR 146 billion.

The trend can be your friend if you know what you're looking at.

R.

and from very far steps'steps that sound like FOA coming back to this Forum...

This is getting interesting.

When pog acts like this the bear market rally in the DOW can more easily be recognized as being grotesque.

Sooner or later it may even go baroque.

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/permanent.htmlWhile that operation adds "permanent" reserves to the nation's banking system (and thus increasing the money supply), the Fed today also took temporary measures, adding another $8 billion through overnight repurchase agreements with our nation's financial institutions.

This coming at a time when the market rate in overnight fed funds was trading in line with the FOMC directive targeting a 1 percent rate. Liquidity so deep today that everything, and I do mean everything (except the value of each dollar) swims on a higher tide.

R.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=10&t=c&a=12
Just like a little lamb jumping over a fence.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031112/markets_gold_6.htmlsnip:

"It is just a lack of selling in the market. The dollar continues to weaken. The Middle East, everything, is just pushing gold higher. It's the last currency that you can't debase," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank.

No more needs to be said....Got Gold?

ANOO, you said :-

By making the terminology less
explanatory and more accurately descriptive, with regard
to the movements of prices and other factors, underlying
truths about markets could be more easily discovered and
the overall picture could be made more real.

and later :-

...the DOW can more easily be recognized as being grotesque.
Sooner or later it may even go baroque.

That's walking the walk, man - I like it !

C!

Maybe it won't be inappropriate if I tell you that when
gold was at 395 today, my overall gain since I originally
got into the gold futures market was around 59%. That time
is less than two years. My purpose here is not to brag,
although I guess I could brag, but to shout the news of
what is possible in this market. I also own physical gold,
and of course that's up too. I know that pog goes up and
down, and that in order to realize this gain the contracts
must be sold. Nonetheless I am not selling these
contracts, which are December 2004 contracts, at this
time. Personally I still think that gold is very strong,
and that today's move confirms the direction gold's price
is headed, so I want to benefit from that. Also, I don't
want to contribute to any selling that may occur. I have
enough cash on hand to cover whatever gold might do, and
therefore I will simply wait and let it do what it wants.
Later, if it comes down significantly, maybe that would be
a good time to buy more.

It is remarkable to observe how one's own emotions also
strongly fluctuate with this tide.

Thank you for your appreciative remarks. I deserve it.

(A dark knight is permitted to say things like this. It's
stated in the bylaws. The fine print maybe, but it's there. Look for it. You'll find it.)

@ A nation of one-

I agree. Investing is supposed to be non-emotional, but I watched my positions climb with about the same emotion of watching my football team call plays in the red zone. I think I'll take some ST profits today and continue to root for the long term rise. This season, gold is performing like the KC Chiefs!!! Today is like a Dante Hall TD kickoff return.

And up $7 on the day.

Up about 25 cents!

http://www.mortgagedaily.comBy MortgageDaily.com staff
MortgageDaily.com
The number of people employed in mortgage-related jobs fell by 1,000 to 422,000, according to a recent government employment report.
The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed there were 109,500 loan brokers, both mortgage and nonmortgage, as of September. The non-seasonally adjusted figure is down from 113,000 in August. A year ago, the sector had 85,700 employees.
The number of people working in the Real Estate Credit sector totaled 312,500, up from 310,000 the prior month, reported the bureau. The 2,500 employee increase came short of recovering the 2,600 drop in August. Last September, employees totaled 273,900 in this sector.
The dip in employment follows flattening refinancing activity since June -- when rates hit record lows. Mortgage applications have had a hard time recovering from a 20.5% weekly slump reported in mid-October by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
The news about the declining mortgage employment numbers, which are reported about one month after the end of each month, follows recent reports of layoffs from Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, and E-LOAN.
The bureau, a division of the U.S. Department of Labor, announced October's unemployment rate at 6.0% or 8.8 million people, down a notch from 6.1% the prior month.

>>> Tommorrow the latest MBA REFI activity will be reported.
>>> Its a day late on account of the holiday.

>>> It doesn't pay to refi today with the rates going up.
>>> Could really hurt the cash outs and spending
>>> plans of consumers. They'll have to start using more
>>> expensive plastic or go back to home equity loans unless
>>> the home is already "loaned out".

Thanks!

Good article on world oil supplies on sharlynx page called its the oil stupid.What would gold be worth in the scenario this article offers.This article is scary you can see its premise happening even now.Nation of one judging by your posts your having a good day.I am happy for you.One thing I have always had trouble doing is to know when to take a profit.I think its the hardest thing in investing.congrats 21

You failed to mention two factors influencing today's Fed activity - 1) today is the end of the two-week settlement period and 2) the currency drain associated with the Thanksgiving holiday.

R.

Here are the three highest percentage gainers from the CRB for ****TODAY****

Cocoa up 4.55%
Wheat up 3.88%
Corn up 3.33%

The above agricultural products literally cannot be grown fast enough to keep up with with the expansion of the money supply as the trajectory of the exponential curve slopes ever more vertical.


BTW, stopped by a fast food joint this afternoon on the way back to the office and ordered a small frosty. It was VERY small. But the price was the same. We are fast approaching the point where the inflation becomes apparent to Joe Sixpack.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

Weyerhaeuser To Close Longview, Wash., Fine Paper Operations; Weyerhaeuser To Eliminate 119 Positions

@Paper Avalanche-

CNBC reported today that Industrial metals rose right along with PMs, which might concern some that raw materials prices are growing quickly. Fodder, perhaps, for Jim Rogers' assertion that raw materials are due for a protrated rise.

Inflating right along with the broadest measure of monetary aggregates; even in absolute terms their performance is meaningless except to the great unwashed.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTBDAN[PA][DD][F!3!!]⪯f=GLook and you can see WHY !
Today was the needed ALERT -- "Triple Top BREAKOUT"
GO GOLD -- to FREEDOM !
<;-)

The last time I stopped by a fast food outlet, I was shocked--shocked when I received back only pocket change from my $ten. This Joe sixpack's eyes bugged out and I protested, "there must be some mistake." No- it was all right there before me on the black on white sales receipt. Those fries and pops do add on, don't they.?

Gone are the days of getting change back from your dollar. Now, you hope to get change back from your ten...and next year, maybe your twenty. ----Gdome

nation: Glad to read of your conviction and courage to first take and then to hold your futures positions even in the down turns. That type of courage is what James Sinclair has said was lacking in the futures market; the courage and faith to see the future of gold even as supposed gold analysts would say: "sell--runaway."

I too, own the physical gold and silver, and mining shares, but I have never had the financial courage, or just plain "guts" to try the futures. Keep up the good work. -----Gdome

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=3807818Snip:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The widening U.S. budget gap, already a burden on the dollar, may grow heavier due to the cost of the open-ended U.S. involvement in Iraq that could end up costing $200 billion over the next decade, analysts said.

To the extent that the United States is likely to pay most of those security and rebuilding costs in Iraq, issuing debt will become even more critical to fill the yawning U.S. budget gap, fast approaching 5 percent of gross domestic product.

"I think that in the bigger picture ... the cost of rebuilding Iraq deals directly with the state of the U.S. fiscal deficit," said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington D.C.

"This is only going to put great strain on the U.S. budget deficit going forward. That will ultimately have a negative impact on the economy and the dollar," Alex Beuzelin, the foreign exchange market analyst, said.
............................
The huge caveat is that Japan's and China's foreign central banks are holding dollar-denominated U.S. Treasuries to prop up the dollar and keep the yen and the Chinese yuan lower, all in the name of buttressing their respective export sectors.
*****************
Misetich

A few days I commented on the financial burden the NeoCons Agenda puts on the US economy

With Savings Rate about to go negative in the US the dependence on Asia - Japan to keep on funding the US Twin Deficits is unsastainable

Corporate CEO's are not as bullish regarding the US economic recovery and will be act cautiously in spending - thus it can be assured that job creation is going to be a non-event

Today, we learned of at least 18 Italians dead in Iraq, a US soldier and 8-10 Iraqi - with many more injured - Deepest condolences

Many adjectives are being used by the mass-media manipulators in branding today's action - "terrorism" "militants" "insurgents" -

Fact is today symbolized how out of control things are in Iraq. In the last 12-13 days over 60 soldiers of the "Coaltion of the Willing (Forced?)" - have lost their lives and many, many more injured

Getting to the point -

The US Administration underestimated the Iraq invasion- and the price both economically and politically is getting steeper

How can the US abandon Iraq now? Do they have an exit strategy?

Spain pulled out some of their assitance already and after the rhetoric of the next few days you can bet the Italians will do the same - After all how can the Italian government justify to their people the loss of human lives when their country was not attacked and was not in any way sanctioned by Nato or UN

Thus the "coalition of the willing (forced?)" will get weaker adding additional strain to the US to keep on providing the required manpower and funding

How can other countries be cajolled in sending in "peacekeepers"? The task has just been made harder for Powell and Co -

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

BB.......Missing all the fun??

I would like to be able to understand why it is, that the Europeans (Euro members, I presume) continue to sell gold?
Is not Gold some basis for the value or quantity of Euro's? If so, doesn't it undermine their system to dis-horde gold?...possibly damaging the basis for their currency system? I should think that if I were basing my currency on Gold, I would covet my metal. There is probably a lot going on here that I have missed, but Gold sales by the British (non-euro member) at the bottom of the market a couple of years ago, made Gordon Brown look the Moron. Yet, the Swiss, Portuguese, Dutch, and whom else, among the Europeans, have been off-loading their monetary metal? This doesn't make sense to me if the European's are looking to have a reserve currency with Gold backing.

Are the Europeans are playing "rope a dope" with the dollar for awhile, as they grow stronger and the dollar continues to wear down? But that wouldn't seem to make much sense, unless they can get the Gold back in the future.

I have copied and re-posted some excerpts from Towny and Belgian from earlier today as seeming parodoxic examples of this situation. Thanks for the patience in trying to get this through the murk of my misunderstanding.
____________________________________________

Town Crier writes this to the forum:

"Since October 27th, 10 tonnes (of what I presume to be Dutch gold) have left the Eurosystem books...

the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem for the past two weeks in aggregate show this strategic 10 tonne decline in gold and gold receivables as a 105 million euro drain on Eurosystem reserves...

More significantly, this same two week period has revealed portfolio transactions to have allowed the net financial position in foreign currency to drop by 1,300 million euros in reserve value.

Thus, the gap between paper and gold reserves being held continues to narrow, with the foreign currency position sliding to EUR 190.0 billion while the gold reserves are currently anchoring the books at EUR 130.7 billion in value."

____________________

Earlier in a response to me, Belgian had stated that:


"If and when the euro should succeed in replacing the dollar as reserve-currency...more euro should have more stability, through the Freegold concept. Growing amounts of Physical Gold Wealth Reserve Asset in EURO, freely fluctuating in value against all currencies, as a new modern, flexible standard. In and out of Gold ...Your Gold and its value, will tell each and everyone of us, exactly, how wealthy we really are."

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Please don't misunderstand, I'm not trying to quible--just understand the seemingly inconsistent positions of the Euro-countries. ---------Gdome.

We may have reached a turning point. Much more action on the BUY side today...little selling.

To quote BB (who is definitely missed):

Tomorrow's open should be very interesting!!! Gold stocks continued up for the entire three hours after the close of the Comex.

sometimes. I imagine the cartel's rearguard action has to be to have as many "normal" days (PMs flat or down) as possible, and let all the upward zooms get over with in a compressed interval. (Gotta be onboard for those.) Then defend at a higher level. (Sort of like the "Bernanke moment" end of last year? Followed by the "message" of US military might, hammering gold back down to 320.)

Now if I just hadn't put those small put bets against the Dow...oh well...every bit helps!

(Caradoc: Your Arab article was spectacular! Worthy of regular re-reads. I imagine that FOA's protestation that "Another is English" could mean he's an Arab settled in London, no?)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aR4pMAz.ogAA&refer=usSnip:

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The global market for derivatives traded outside exchanges grew 20 percent to a record $170 trillion in the first half of the year, led by contracts pegged to interest rates, the Bank for International Settlements said
..................
The figures ``point to continued vigorous growth in interest- rate swap contracts in the first half,'' the Basel, Switzerland- based BIS said in its twice-yearly derivatives report today. ``The strong growth in the market was visible in all market risk categories except gold
..................
The notional value of gold derivatives fell 4 percent and gross market value dropped 22 percent in the period.

``The gold price was on a dramatic rollercoaster ride through the first half of 2003,'' the report said. There was ``continual and extensive producer de-hedging. With extremely low interest rates, producers earn less on proceeds of forward sales of gold.''
********************
Misetich

Producers de-hedging has slowed considerably in the last few weeks as GOLD prices rocketed in US $ and is ready to catapult over $400

With IR to be maintained at low levels (after all it is a Presidential Year - and it just wouldn't be nice for Sir Greenspan to torpedo ANOTHER Bush - would it?) producer hedging will be curtailed to project funding.

Without the continuos producers 'short sales' the physical supply diminishes and consequently only outright sales by CB's can augment supply

Andy Smith & Co are trying to persuade CB's to get rid of their gold - ( I would too if I were short and a mega-bear) and I guess add devaluating US $ to their portfolio

It is interesting to note how the BIS went "out of their way" to emphasize the non-growth in gold derivaties tying it to producers de-hedging -

Producers were not the only one selling Gold Short in recent years - Investment Bankers, Bullion Bankers piled on

Heavy hedgers are bleeding - off balance sheet of course - hoping for just a "flame out" and then going back to the "old days of sub $325

They just don't get it - it is the US $ stupid

All Aboard The Gold Express

In regards to your comment:
"Caradoc: Your Arab article was spectacular! Worthy of regular re-reads. I imagine that FOA's protestation that "Another is English" could mean he's an Arab settled in London, no?)"

I wish to add a little mystery as well. One of the anagrams for ANOTHER is, A Throne. ?? Hmmm Know of any princes in "exile" ??

Great to see your post this evening. Hope you are faring well.

I am weeks behind in my readings here at the castle only grabbing the highlights every few days. Reminds me of a post you made days/weeks ago about having to pay attention to business lately, ditto for me.

Wishing all here a pleasant evening. Nice to sit around the campfire after a good day eh? Most relaxing.

"...this strategic 10 tonne decline..."

Operative word there is "strategic".

'nough said.

R.

Thank you kindly for your reply to my question about Elko Nevada. Your advice to check out Lamoille is well taken. I like what I have found on the internet enough to travel there in ernest, weather permiting, soon. Not much housing available at this time, but I only need one. :-)

Best Wishes

aristotle check it out
so you where sayong something to the effect that each night you lay down a changed man. i think that is because you grasp gold. see with the dollar as the reserve currency everything is changing so one is unaware of th echange, for example 6 oz packs of cheese for the same price as eight ounce packs of cheese ( the six ounce packs are new want to bet when the storehouse of 8 ounce packs are gone there will be six ounce only for the same price poof mission accomplished . but no one notivces. well people are kinda now, but with the un balanced circuation of floating currency life is a flux you have nothing to ground yourself on nothing to provide that stability that comparison so you can measure change accuratly without so many conversions.
since you and maybe me even kinda, maybe, sorta, i hope, grasp that gold is well gold as you so eloquently put it its easier to recognize the change and measure it cause you are dealing with absolute values and attributes not some subjective measure. so you see gold understanding even perculates down into you r personal life. thats point where ecoism takes effect upon you . yes that world wide movement where individuals ( even big trusts and charities) are realizing something is afoot with gold and are reexaming what is going on, what change is taking place.Without a more thoughour understandiong of whats happening they will be moving to fast when they should be standing still to absorb the total impact of gold ownership.

belgium
your post about reflections got me to thinking how my thoughts tend to mimic yours after you have posted them. you have been a beacon guiding me, you verbosity and ability to clear the path before me has done wonders for my own interpretations. one day i hope to type w a post .9999 pure as yours are.

i do have a question though does anyone think the money that is departing the us dollar and may not want to be 100% exposed to euroes finds its way into malaysias newly revamped financial sector? I think they are setting themselvs up to be a viable alternative /compliment to the euro. rember tehy are pushing bi lateral trade agreements in gold and are reintroducing the dinar ( which its second minting , which is oversubscribed by the way) is in the works mind you its only 11,000 ounces broken down into basically a lil under 5 grams but is happening and a third and fourth mintnigs are in the works im sure) they could be the financer of the far east indonesia, laos, thialand , burma, mymar, mongolia, so on and so forth. just a thought as not all that money will find itself in euroes (diversification , nor will it all find its way into gold /silver.)
where will you be priced in at?
did you get sum yet?

My gold exposure is through shares and wish to know your comments regarding the relative merits of investing in strong commodity countries sharemarkets like Australia and Canada versus the USA sharemarket with regards to Gold Shares and the likely comparitive performance of gold shares in those markets when the bubble bursts in the USA.

I was watching cnbc today,the commentator was marveling how all markets were rising together.Gold,Nyse,etc the first thought that came to my head was liquidity.This economy is awash in fiat the smart money his in things gold and other commodities,but there is plenty of money out there to push other markets higher.That would be a decent plan if tptb new gold was going higher to let it.But they could also say these other markets are rising to this may deflect the less astute for awhile longer.21

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/1112.html"To the moon, Alice."
"As an investment, it isn't on anyone's radar screen, at least not on the screens of the general public. Yet in the last three years, the price of the yellow metal has risen 54% from its nadir of $255.55 on April 2, 2001 to today's 7-year high of $394.45. The last time we saw gold prices this high was back in May of 1996.

What's The REAL Reason?
There is something going on here and it is more than just the price of the dollar. Demand for commodities has been rising each year and most commodities are running a supply deficit. The real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices is demand. The other driver is the value of the dollar."

Waverider: Puplava provides an excellent market wrap-up (with charts) today which I post in Black Blade's absence.

Dad telephoned from Idaho this evening. The conversation followed a usual pattern: Whatcha-been-doin?... We been walkin', that type thing.

"I was metal detecting the other day", he says, " found about seven dollars-- including a 1908 quarter."

"Wow", I responded, "You don't find one of those every day; must have been a Morgan, right? Sounds like pretty rich diggins to find seven bucks."

"Well, actually, they called them Barber quarters," he replied chuckling softly, "but it wasn't in very good shape; been in the ground a long time. Ya, I was down in the park around the swimming pool, but I found the quarter in the little strip of lawn just between the sidewalk and curb area near the street."

Then, changing subjects he says, "Say, I see gold's about back up where you bought all those coins for, about twenty years ago; you gunna sell-em-out?"

I hesitated, a little startled by the abrupt question-- that's dad.

"No," I said, pausing to think: "I cann't remember where they're buried...Might have to have you come find 'em for me...I lost the map...and besides, there's a bunch of nine-ten dollar silver down there, too. Not hardly worth diggin' up at this point. No, it's been there a long time; think I'll just let it lay."

Gdome

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 14 61,787�c plus1430�c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456�c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322�c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602�c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993�c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838�c plus4293�c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542�c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053�c plus1757�c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108�c plus2055�c...387.0
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934�c...384.4
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319�c...377.1
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649�c...380.0 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651�c plus0445�c...382.7
Nov. 07 51,679�c plus2028�c...380.7
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338�c...383.4
Nov. 11 51,722�c plus0381�c...386.7
Nov. 12 52,927�c plus1205�c...388.2
Nov. 13 61,349�c plus8422�c...395.0

D-ANI: CRB gains a new high. Corn gains a new high. And Silver & Gold may be a first runner of CRB rally.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen