USAGOLD Discussion - December 2003

CoBra(too)

(12/02/2003; 13:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112705)

Barrick is coming to its Senses!

Or is it?

Please, tell me how to close 16 moz of forwarded gold, when the hedge book was already under water to the tune of 1.2 billion dollars in the latest quarter and at an average of 365 $/oz!?

We're now talking 400 plus POG and the hedge book of ABX may have reached stratopherical dimensions - oh, on the wrong side of the ledger. This may mean these geniuses are finding it somewhat difficult to explain their premium option "excercises" to their shareholders, as the share price was lagging badly any non-hedger! Premium, or not!
... and that may be a negligible problem, as their bullion bankers may not be really impressed by a mere "name", as their margin call draws near!

Anyway, here's another take, supplied by GATA's Chris Powell:
***by Nicole Mordant

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec. 2 (Reuters) -- Barrick
Gold Corp., whose name has become synonymous with selling
gold on forward markets, said on Tuesday it had formally
committed itself to drop hedging as a strategy, sending
bullion prices to a fresh 7-1/2 high.

In an interview with Reuters, Barrick chief executive Greg
Wilkins said the world's third biggest gold miner would, over
time, empty its forward sales book -- the biggest in the gold
business -- although it was in no rush, or under any pressure,
to get rid of it.

"But eventually the hedge book will come to zero. We aren't
qualifying the policy. We are adopting truly a no-hedging
policy," Wilkins said.

Gold surged to a 7-1/2 year high, hitting $405.55 an ounce,
after Wilkins firmed up informal comments made by Barrick
chairman and founder Peter Munk 11 days ago. Munk said
then that the Toronto-based firm's commitment to hedging
was a thing of the past.

As promised, the firm also posted a formal no-hedging
policy statement on its Web site on Tuesday.

Before the news, which also helped to lift Barrick's share
price off earlier lows, bullion was trading at around $402 an
ounce.

"Investors will be pleased that the company has an intention
to reduce their hedge, book thus increasing its leverage to
the commodity," said Haytham Hodaly, an analyst at Salman
Partners.

Barrick's stock was trading at C$29.03, down 32 Canadian
cents, on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday, up from
a morning low of C$28.89.

Tells of why, but mum on how

Wilkins, who took the helm at Barrick in February, said he
had spent the last eight to nine months speaking to investors
and hearing their concerns about the firm's hedge book,
which critics say reduces the firm's exposure to rising gold
prices.

Currently weighing in at 16 million ounces of gold, Barrick
has reduced the hedge book from a peak of 24 million ounces
18 months ago.

But it remains far fatter than the hedge programs of rivals
Newmont Mining Corp., a staunch anti-hedger with about
2.5 million gold ounces sold forward, and Placer Dome Inc.
with about 10 million ounces. The share prices of both
Newmont and Placer have outperformed Barrick's this year
as bullion has risen.

"The (hedging) program has worked incredibly well and
continues to work well but I can't deny that there is a hedging
discount in the capital markets," Wilkins said.

"I don't believe that it is prudent or necessary to continue
pursuing a strategy that doesn't allow the value of the
company to surface in the marketplace."

Wilkins said Barrick no longer needed the financial security
offered by the predetermined prices of the sales program.
With $1 billion in cash on its balance sheet and access to
capital markets, Barrick is able to fund its growth plans,
which may include a drive into Asia.

Analysts said it was crucial to know how Barrick plans to cut
back its hedge positions, as it could be expensive if the gold
price continues to rise. But Wilkins declined to provide
details, saying only that many options were being considered.

Some analysts said Barrick had woken up too late in the gold
cycle to change a policy that has been bitterly attacked by
anti-hedging groups since the bullion price began rising in
2001. But there was also praise for Barrick.

"Yes, obviously they have been a bit late. But hindsight is
20-20 and it's the same hedge book that has been very
successful for them throughout the last two decades,"
Hodaly said.

"Long-term investors will remember that this helped them
when the gold price was at dismal levels," he said.***

... Long time investors will also remember that survival - as nice as it may sound - is only part of the equation. In times of a gold bull market, they just might expect more of a performance; At least more than sub average ... and probably without the constant fear of margin calls and a potential derivative melt-down.

Maybe some of you here have been shareholders in the oldest US gold mining company - Homestake? I have and have never forgiven these predators to take 'em over for scratch!

Shame on ABX - a company, which could have become great on its own merits - instead, it chose to defile its product for a short term gain! cb2

Cavan Man

(12/02/2003; 14:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112706)

@CB(too)

Simple and quick question.....how can a company in this (seemingly desparate) position....so far underwater... avoid being "called in" by the winning hands?

I don't get it. Remember Ashanti and Cambior? What's different this time around? Where is the "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" in all its sordid manifestations?

TIA....friend...Kevin

Buongiorno!

(12/02/2003; 14:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112707)

*****411.60*****

Yes, I think gold will reach and surpass $500/oz in '04 because, for the past twenty years or so, we have been trying to spend ourselves rich and now must try to borrow our way out of debt! My spies tell me that if Congress had to abide by the accounting rules of Sarbines-Oxley, the current budget deficit would be about 1.5 TT. Mamma Mia! Vino, per favore!

Chin-Chin....ting!
Buongiorno!

CoBra(too)

(12/02/2003; 14:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112708)

@ CM

Very Valid Question!

Yes, Indeed, how come the margin calls are still not triggered?

Well, according to Dietmar's work - and a bit of my own - we feel that 414 POG may be the ultimate trigger. 414 seems the delicate number, when the margin requirements of the co. are finally exhausted ... Ha, though what do I know?

This is just a mathematical equation, where Munk & co. wouldn't be able to rustle up enough equity or liquidity to stave off bankruptcy by margin according to Black/Sholes' risk averting Model. This might also only be true, if the counterparty(s) are purely US dollar denominated - as in JPM or GS -, though overall you may have spot deferred hedges as long as you are liquid. If not, try to defer a margin call!

Gold in the ground is great - so is next years great soy bean crop - and as long as you don't get called on the real McCoy -NOW - or tide over by paying up! you're in deep do-do!
... and in the final analysis, who's do-do is deeper, the chicken or the egg's? cb2

Cavan Man

(12/02/2003; 15:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 112709)

CoBra(too)

They (ABX) did make it a point to mention publicly they had $1.2BILLION USD = CASH. Perhaps they have been hung out to dry. A mining company is prey to the bullion banks due to the ultimate backstops...central banks. In life there are winners and losers and there is ALWAYS a fall guy or (too)....someone to take the rap. Shareholders will get screwed (of course) ala ENRON et al but the executives will continue to live large. Feliz NAVIDAD...CM

CoBra(too)

(12/02/2003; 15:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112710)

Yes, Sir CM ...

ABX made it public having 1.2 billion dollars cash. In the latest Qu. and it also became clear that their hedge book was under water to the same tune ... 1.2 billion dollars. And that was at an average sales price of 365$/oz!

At 403 POG or even think 414, who really cares about their 87 moz of deep storage gold?

I want to chew my beans now and won't be 'deferring' starvation until my premium supplier choses to deliver at his discretion!

...? cb2

Cavan Man

(12/02/2003; 15:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112711)

Invesco...Strong...Putnam....Janus....MSDW (settled)

Cheers to all the "financial advisers" and stock/bond peddlers. Make mine (physical)GOLD.

What a bunch of scumbags.

Boilermaker

(12/02/2003; 16:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112712)

Today's Game; Markets 1 Riggers 0

It must be hell trying to rig today's markets. Like keeping the tide from coming in (or out). Yesterday the economic news said "happy days are here again" and everyone dutifully piled into shares. But-- the guys who deal currencies were heading for the $US exits. And the guys/gals like us that like gold were buying. It's hard to keep all the folks fooled all the time.

Today the economy did not shout a booming message and the shares got soggy. Who the hell is running this game anyway? Can't they be consistent? We need more good news to keep this pig flying. A little more lipstick please.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

CoBra(too)

(12/02/2003; 16:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112713)

BB's DMR - has captured it again !

"Suddenly the world is waking up to the fact that the only currency that can't be debased is gold," said John Embry, president of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management Inc...." - No need for explanation ...

Thanks again, Jon for your great efforts - cb2

CoBra(too)

(12/02/2003; 17:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112714)

**** 414.--***

As per my (un-)educated guess ABX will be under water. Though the GOLD won't stop there and as the derivative implosions may start at this juncture - I'll believe that even 500 POG will be a non event in 2004.

Gold will regain its rightful place - "as the only currency, which can't be debased" (thanks to John Embry)-
as the only true value!

cb2

Thanks MK and Gandy for another great contest ... well knowing, that my guess is either too low or too high and that's why I'm cb(too)- t(w)o old to admit total ignorance of TA ...

Goldilox

(12/02/2003; 17:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112715)

KRY

Anyone (not insiders) have an idea what's going on with Chrystallex? They were rising side by side with Canyon and the other juniors right until Thanksgiving. Did the market dislike a couple of their latest alliances?

Smeagol

(12/02/2003; 17:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112716)

King for a day

(mouth hanging open) O, the view from up here is sstunning.... and the Goldshine is almosst too bright for uss.... Smeagol thanks all at the Castle for this treat!

My firsst (and only) decree as KOTH is - A ROUND OF GOLDEN ALE FOR ALL!

Who's next? (grin)

S.

Slowman

(12/02/2003; 17:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112717)

***** 424.40*****

There will be an absolute run to 500 for gold per ounce during 2004. The world is tired of fiat and before gold gives up it will surpass 850 . History always repeats itself. Any terrorist attack in America will push it over500 in 2004. We have been told its coming.BUY NOW.

Remarx

(12/02/2003; 18:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112718)

Basic Questions on How to Sell Gold/Silver Coins

Althoug I buy my PM coins at CPM, I'm pretty sure from reading the web site that CPM does not buy back in small quantities.

I was wondering how best to sell (non-collectible) coins in the future. I am not asking for company specifics that might infringe on the hospitality of CPM, just for general tips. Can you get close to the "sell price" shown at the big POG quote sites, say, by selling coins locally in your town? Is the paperwork shipped with your coins important to retain as some sort of proof, or are the coins themselves sufficient? I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value? (Assuming you keep them from tarnishing.)

Sorry if these are naive questions, but I have just been buying for the past year, never selling!

Cheers -r

admin

(12/02/2003; 18:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112719)

Buy Backs

Dear Remarx,

We do buy back coins in any amount from our clientele. Please call your account representative for current prices.

Our telephone recording sometimes gives people the wrong impression. We do not but from the public -- the public being those who are not clients of USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals. We advertise all over the United States and people have called us in the past from all over the United States to sell class rings, spoons, jewelry, gold coins -- you name it. We are in the investment business so we send those inquiries to the local coin shop, and the phone message is designed to allay those calls. If we didn't do it that way, we would be inundated with phone calls from sellers of scrap. That's not our business. At the same time, we welcome working with our clientele and I hope this clears your confusion in this regard.

Thanks, Remarx

mudr

(12/02/2003; 18:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112720)

******$406.10*******

******$406.10*******
This will be the closing price for all the reasons that have been posted over and over again. What I like to think and talk about now is how the same themes of conversation are occuring that I heard when Gold was reaching $300. Is this how the discussions will be when Gold reaches $500 ??? and the $600 ??? When will the discussion turn from "Will it break the ___hundred barrier" or "Will it hold?" to "Wow, how high can it go?" As long as some are wondering if it can break the barrier or hold the price I will pour every available savings into the gold market, because it's going to keep on going up - and way past the point when some turn the questions to "How high can it go?"
MUDR

Cavan Man

(12/02/2003; 18:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112721)

BB's Daily Market Report

The London stock exchange appears ready to trade the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) on the 9th of this month, similar to the much touted U.S. version of gold-backed ETFs that are being held up mostly by Wall Streeters in concert with their friends at the Securities and Exchange Commission who live in fear of competition to their financial instruments as they attempt to strip every last penny out of the average gullible investor. Gold as a currency without liability has these charlatans shaking in fear.

Jon: Thanks for tremendous effort. Your daily reports are outstanding and simply Another very good reason to do business with MK and company.

Sundeck

(12/02/2003; 19:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112722)

****$416.0****

Will spot leap to $500 in 2004, that is the question.

If spot were to continue his quasi-linear upward trend of the past year or two, then we might expect to find him perched about $480 by year end; plus or minus about $40. So, on immediate past trends, there is a good chance that spot might spike above $500 in 2004, but settle below $500.

However, that assumes that things drift along more or less as they have done in the past couple of years. What has changed?

Well, not much except realisation and mood! There is now little doubt in the minds of the many that the scree slope upon which the $US is perched is unstable and is likely to subside in surges. Similarly there is now little doubt in the minds of the many that gold is not the "has-been" that it was thought to be a few years ago. This trend has been gathering strength and is manifest by the concavity in the POG versus Time curve for the last few years --- the trend is not linear, but is concave upwards. Thus POG is likely to change more rapidly in the coming year than in the past few years. Hence, it is likely that spot will not ony spike above $500 in 2004, but will also settle above $500.

FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck

PS. Gandalf - keep supplementing Spot's diet with that roo meat, but remember MODERATION in all things.

Waverider - no more gold flakes PLEASE - they are indigestable and only add weight...

;-)

aussie

(12/02/2003; 19:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112723)

Gold Market - not a mugs game

No wonder the gold bugs in America are cheering! Good luck to you all.
Have to say it isn't the same in Australia due to the increase in our dollar. Today I can see the reason Black Blade was always pushing the insurance angle of gold.

On 23rd January 2003, AU Spot - AU$621.38 (US$364.30). Today (3rd December) AU Spot $554.23. So in fact since January a LOSS of AU$67.15 per ounce.

Unfortunately all our media outlets report increases and gold prices not in AU$ but in US$.

Think it must be time for a holiday in the States. Any ideas on how to transport gold out of Australia?

Cheers

neer-do-well

(12/02/2003; 20:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112724)

two

$ value = what it will buy which =s what we produce. What we produce in the end is what the $ is worth.

Health insurance in the end is the REASON for costs to go thru the roof. Cancel insurance and watch the fees go down, chargin is one thing collectin is another. Universal insurance? Joke. We probably had better medical care before the advent of insurance.

Dollar Bill

(12/02/2003; 20:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112725)

*>*

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.aspMarshall Auerbach on the euro.
Informed opinion it appears.

Gandalf the White

(12/02/2003; 20:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112726)

Sir Remarx's QUESTIONS !

You asked -- "I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value? (Assuming you keep them from tarnishing.)"
===
I am sorry, BUT I must jump in here to answer this QUESTION !
IF you wish to sell coins that were minted and inclosed in plastic -- DO NOT REMOVE the coins from the plastic ! Even coins that were purched in a "flip" should be keep in the plastic ! THIS is in MOST ALL cases the correct answer.
==
Take for instance the gold coins from China --- Pandas ---
IN CHINA -- IF the coin is removed from the plastic, it can NOT be sold in China. WHY? you ask, -- LOCAL CUSTOM !
Just like the Slabbed collector's coins -- IF the coin is removed from the SLAB, you have only an ungraded coin !
AND FINALLY, the comment about "keep them from tarnishing"
IF this means by cleaning or polishing --- MIA CHAI !!
THAT is almost the worst thing that can be done to ANY coin ! IF you want to see a grown collector cry, show them a rare coin that you have just given a polished shine !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/02/2003; 20:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112727)

Sir Aussie --

aussie (12/2/03; 19:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 112723)
Gold Market - not a mugs game ---
===
Sir Aussie, Aussie is not my native language and I am afraid that it is about sixth on my comprehension scale.
The word "mugs" is not in my WEBSTERS INTERNATIONAL dictionary, and other than the word "Muggle", which I have learned from a Mr. Potter, I can not invision the thought. Can you provide a hint ?
Thanks
<;-)

Cytek

(12/02/2003; 20:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112728)

****** $409.10 ******

Will spot go to $500 in 2004. I believe as most people on this forum that Gold is in the beginning of a muli-year Bull run. The dollar is one sick puppy and as foreign investment continues to leave the U.S. the dollar will drop even more, .80 by the end of 2004 should be easily attainable meanwhile the POG should touch 500 by this time next year. I hope it stays on the present trend line and climbs up nice and slow, so all on this forum can continue to accumulate. Buy the dips, don't sell till $160,000 an ounce,ouch.

Cytek

Remarx

(12/02/2003; 21:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112729)

Thanks!

@admin: Thank you. Sorry, should have asked my CPM rep first! Not that I want to sell any back now. I am still waiting for the $500 in 2004, and then beyond!

@gandalf: Thanks for answering what was probably a silly question about the plastic. (I wasn't talking about cleaning collector coins, just new eagles and maples.)

Now, can anybody tell me about transporting coins to Canada from the US? Is the limit the same as $10K FRN? If so, that would imply that it is money, and I would think that it would have to be $10K of face value, not worth. No? Also, if it is less than the $10K, does one have to declare it?

Gandalf the White

(12/02/2003; 21:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112730)

MORE for Sir Remarx

ARGGGGGGGGGGGG !
Maple Leaves are 0.999 or 0.9999 PURE Au and even picking them up incorrectly can cause a minor scratch seen with a LOOP !
SOME buyers will deduct at least a dollar or two for such a hairline scratch!!! Keep them in the TUBE or flip and do not consider even thinking about shining them ! <;-)

21mabry

(12/02/2003; 21:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112731)

Slab Coins

My friends grandfather has told me that ever once in a while someone will bring in a slab to sell,and these people have removed original coin and replaced it with lower grade coin.These people than reseal the slab.He said some of these people are masters of their craft.If you buy slabs buy from reputable dealers.21

Remarx

(12/02/2003; 21:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112732)

@gandalf: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

What you said about ANY coin finally sunk in to my thick skull!

PCV1

(12/02/2003; 21:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112733)

Barrick and its Derivative Position

So, Barrick is giving up hedging. Is this a company responding to the demands of their shareholders or a company that is quietly changing course, like a supertanker? If we take it that ABX does have a ticking time bomb hidden in its accounts then how can it respond? It can't respond openly and it can't terminate its derivatives.

Presumably it will continue to openly sell into the market at the highs and look to increasing its gold reserves and production. Buying into elephants, such as Sukhoi Log, will be the only way that ABX can increase its size to overcome the drag imposed by its derivative position.

Gandalf the White

(12/02/2003; 21:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112734)

My final answer to Sir Remarx !

IT is US$10K of WORTH !
AND yes, IF you wish to bring back into the USA the same items, you should register them with the USA Customs BEFORE you leave the USA !
WHY ? you ask ---
Let me tell you a story -- Four Goldbugs that had been very lucky in a small creekbed in "Northern Kalifornia" had a collection of LARGE gold nuggets ! This nugget collection was carried in a gold colored "gun case" (you know the type that has the cut-out holes in foam, to hold the items in place). The four Goldbugs, were interested in showing this collection to a number of Jr. Miners that were listed on the Vancouver Exchange and thought that they would drop by a Gold Convention that was in Vancouver BC at the same time.
SOOOO, they jumped into their exploration vehicle (a Baby Limo.) and drove to the Great White North !
One of the four, had been a CHIP, and knew a little about the Fed. Border regulations. He had the collection professionally photographed and had two copies of the "stamped" photo.
He insisted on stopping at the US Customs Office and "declaring" the collection. He showed them the collection, and gave them a photo of it, asking for a receipt of "export".
IT was very lucky that he did. BECAUSE, after speaking with, and showing the collection to a number of companies and Goldbugs, that week, --- UPON re-entering the USA the Limo was waved over to the Inspection Area and everyone was requested to "disembark" and enter the "Building". Each of the four was handed an official form and requested to write down if they had anything of worth over $10K, and all the items that each had to "declare". All four said, and wrote on the form, "NOTHING" ! Upon collection of the forms, the Inspector requested the Limo keys and instructed two other Officers to search the vehicle.
They opened the trunk and instantly picked up the GOLD Gun Case ! Opened it up and ask, "What is this worth ?"
The answer given by the driver of the Limo, was, "About $100,000." !
The Officers all smiled and ask why we had not declared the GOLD.
The former CHIP, then ask them, "Why do you want to know ?" The Officers advised, that "someone" had tipped them that the four in the Limo were illegally transporting GOLD and that if the collection was confiscated by the USA Customs, that "someone" would receive HALF the collection as a reward !
At that, the former CHIP smiled as he presented the export receipt and photo of the collection to the Officer and said "not a problem" !
The other three Goldbugs were THEN able to smile too, as they rushed off to visit the men's room.
SOOOOOO, DECLARE the "WORTH" and get documentation !
<;-)

Remarx

(12/02/2003; 22:08:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112735)

Re: Transport

Gandalf, all I can say is: WOW! AM I GLAD I ASKED!!!!! I had no idea.

aussie

(12/02/2003; 22:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112736)

Sir Gandalf reply

Sir Gandalf, - a mug is just an Australian colloquialism - aussie slang word for someone who is a fool/sucker,- perhaps 'someone who just isn't on the ball'.

Cheers

Waverider

(12/02/2003; 23:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112737)

Puplava Wrap-Up

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm...well...not exactly a wrap up - but if anyone feels the urge to study the charts tonight..support and resistance levels - they're just about all there!

~Paper Avalanche - thanks for the information kind Sir, but unfortunately I can't heed your suggestions as I live in Canada. I shall pass it on to Sir Boilermaker however, who appears to be suffering the 2004 Medical Blues ;o)

~ Sundeck - some Goldbug friends and I cracked open a bottle of Goldschlagger last night in celebration of closing >$400.00. It's being saved, only to be opened again upon breaking $500.00! In fact, we have lines drawn on the bottle at $100.00 intervals indicating disciplined consumption/celebration levels all the way up to $1,000.00/ounce! We'll be in for a few more bottles mind you, when the Invisible Hand wins the price guessing competition! Cheers All,

Waverider

Gandalf the White

(12/03/2003; 00:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112738)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

POG Contest UPDATE and the Revised Rules !POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 00:01 (Denver time) WEDNESDAY 12/3/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

---
The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested a December �03 COMEX Contract POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a German "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by a short remark on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, --- AND WHY !

<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MST) on SUNDAY, December 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY

===
Just in time for that last minute Xmas present !!
"COME ON IN" ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! The TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Belgian

(12/03/2003; 01:31:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112739)

Thanks to Dollar Bill for the Prudentbear -euro-article....

As if the dollar is looking at the euro, and...tells Euroland how that euro should be re-modelled...managed...copied from, and in line with, the dollar !?
As if the dollar is suggesting to throw away any kind of currency-stability and go ...DEBT !

Note that the euro NEVER wishes to comment on the dollar !!!
I leave the interpetation of this euro-stance to the readers.

And it is fine with me that nobody in the dollar camp sees any Gold-connection in the euro-concept ! Quite normal, because the dollar-system has already dis-connected from Gold.

As long as we remain in the economical desert and the debt-lion is (must be) debt-powered, the euro only needs to outrun the dollar by 1 nanometer. Freegold...!?

(BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study)

A Canadian

(12/03/2003; 01:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112740)

**************** 444.00 ************

$500 in 04'? nahhh.....that's happening in 03! This bull's running parabolic in 04. Howcome? Here goes.....

The funnymentals can longer be denied. (Not even by Barrick) The damned thing is going up. Period.....
The propensity for manias has never been greater; combine
todays instant global communication/information with the trillions of interest free FRNs whirling about and soon the gluttons will be at the trough. Miniscule gold stock market caps and sellable bullion will severely limit available seating. This ticket's gonna be pricey.....

The inflation/deflation debate has been settled (see ya later Prechter!) The juggernaut of fiat debasement is now unstoppable. Tangibles are rocketing. The king of tangibles will soon be visiting the Oort cloud. Au, call home.....

Crazy-like-a-fox Sinclair reveals his MINIMUM upside projections. Keeps his real targets to himself (so as not to be perceived as crazy).....

The Blade (god bless him) posts less cause his work's been done. The trend's on cruise and he knows it. (just like FOA).....( Pizz too!)

Greenie banged Galt's creator. He's gonna shrug and put Au back in it's place. Remember what he told Ron Paul: "I wouldn't change a word".....

Entire U.S. military complex can't find osama-omar-saddam. No cheering in the streets. No oil to pay for it all. This can only end badly.....

CANADIAN gold reserves down from 20 million ounces to a few hundred thousand.(for sale, by the way)(thanks Brian). Another bench warmer who walked the plank for the Clinton-Rubin lets-grease-the-pig-pay-for-it-later scamola. The emptying of western vaults will be the REAL scandal.(move over Jacko). Portugal, Holland, Belgium, England et al had prison sex too. The hall of shame awaits you.....

Rising sun will soon realise the folly of shorting the yen.
Shotgun marriage to evolving sino-russian-arab (economic axis of evil?) gold slobbering heathens will result in penetration of the U.S. dollar/Maginot line.....

I bought 2 more ozs instead of paying my rent! CANADIAN BULL CHARGING ! (landlord's in Florida. Ha!)

Old Yeller

(12/03/2003; 02:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112741)

The Four Horsemen

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031128-032727-6973r
Go mainstream,on UPI,no less.

Calling for a 1.65 euro in 2005?

That will never do,where's this free gold,that would seem to be a less divisive safe haven.

Topaz

(12/03/2003; 02:45:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112742)

***$375.4***

Ah...a contest, always a pleasure to attempt to wrest some Bullion from the most generous coffers of CPM!.... $500 Gold?...As a paid up member of the FreeGold brigade I'm thinking we'll see $300 Pog before the magic "5"...time will tell.

Paper Avalanche

(12/03/2003; 05:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112743)

The rush to the exits has begun....

http://www.vneconomy.com.vn/en_index.php?action=preview&cat=01&id=031203103248Snip:

"State Bank will sell sufficient US dollars to import gold

An announcing from the State Bank of Vietnam yesterday said: From December 5, the State Bank of Vietnam will sell sufficient US dollars at official exchange rate for banks and companies who already have had gold import quota to import gold stabilizing gold prices on the domestic market. Quantity of gold allowed to import under licenses granted by the State Bank is eight tonnes. An official from the State Bank of Vietnam said supplying foreign currencies to cover imports by the commercial banks is normal and smooth. Experts calculates if bank supply sufficient dollars to buy gold at exchange rate of VND15,621 per dollar (as Vietcombank's selling rate on Dec.,2), gold price on domestic market would be reduced by about VND100,000 per tael, because domestic price of gold in Ho Chi Minh City now is higher than import price about VND130,000 per tael."

End snip.

PA

Gondolin

(12/03/2003; 06:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112744)

The Press is waking up ,but...

The Sun, that favourite rag of the common masses in Britain, famous for its' Page 3 Girls has a small article today as follows

Small investors are to get a simple way of speculating on gold prices.
Punting the "yellow metal", as it is is called, is popular with City professionals.
But they use complex financial means - to avoid physically holding gold bars- which are often beyond the reach of ordinary folk. Now a company whose share price is linked to gold prices is listing on the stock market.
Everey ten shares of GOLD BULLION SECURITIES will buy one troy ounce of gold, valued at $401.35 (�233.34) at last night's close. Managing Director Simon Village said the precious metal will be purchased aand stored on clients' behalf. He said: 'The share price should mirror the gold price. With the market turmoil, gold has been a good way to diversify.
SUN CITY COMMENT: An old City adage says that, when private investors are about to get on board, it's time for the professionals to get off. Is this launch a sign that the booming gold market is about to turn?

Gondolin: Guess which team the Sun bats for? Have I misunderstood the reality of things or is this article blatantly incorrect? My understanding was that they would not purchase the bullion and store it physically but rather would be playing the paper game with perhaps 10% of the bullion actually held?

Gondolin

(12/03/2003; 06:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112745)

Sun Article

Or is the Managing Director Simon Village really the Village Idiot?

Socrates964

(12/03/2003; 06:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112746)

Media

Hmmm. here's the Guardian's take

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1098348,00.html

Note the following sentence:

On Monday gold prices went past $400 (�231) per troy ounce for the first time since 1996 but analysts expect prices to move back to about $350 this year and next.

Frankly, I doubt many UK investors will do very much, particularly since they will be sacrificing much of their liquid assets to the great god of rising mortgage rates in the near future. Indian demand is a better bet.

eccentricventures

(12/03/2003; 06:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112747)

$402.80

I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can. Got to clear those short postions. I frankly expect to see sub $400.00 gold at least one more time, based on past experience. But the trend is up and gold will battle back over $400.00 again. Just a guess, all in MVHO.

Clink!

(12/03/2003; 06:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112748)

Freudian slip, Sir Gandalf ?

I read your cross-border story with great interest, but was surprised at the change from the dispassionate 3rd person recounting to the insertion of a 'we'. (Hope you didn't ruin the pants as well !)

I tried out your advice with a tube of maple leaves last night, but, frankly, while the coins stayed beautifully intact while I passed them from one hand to another, the sensory input was sadly missing - no clink !

Clink!

(12/03/2003; 07:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112749)

Short covering @ eccentricventures

You said :- I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can. Got to clear those short postions.

This may be true eventually, but at what price ? At some stage, there will be a decoupling of the paper and physical price of gold when there is the realization that there is not enough physical to satisfy the paper demand. At this point, the price of physical will go 'too da moon', but the paper price, rather than following it, will revert to its intrinsic value - which is zero. It will be shown to be no longer 'as good as gold'.

It is possible - probable even - that the decoupling will occur after a big ramp up of paper/physical price, but this is not going to end in a short squeeze. If that were going to happen, we would already have seen it. The open interest is just going to keep on growing until it is the longs selling (at a discount to physical) which causes it to decline. There are some who cannot believe this because of all the margin requirement to maintain the short position, not to mention the potential loss for the bullion banks holding that position. But it really depends on who the banks are holding that position for - if it is someone who has the capability of 'printing' as many FRNs as necessary, there is no problem. All this to extend the dollar timeline.

This is why almost everyone here is holding physical - all the other paper games we may play and talk about are merely a means to get more FRNs (or whatever paper is used locally) to get more physical. And the paper game may burn up any day.

Gold - let's get physical !
C!

pmurgsRSA

(12/03/2003; 07:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112750)

(No Subject)

Rand woes for South AfricansThe Rand is killing the SA Gold shares today. Spare a thought for those of us gold bugs in SA who are still waiting for the gold bull to start...

As my first post here, I'd just like to say thanks to all for the information that has been posted here. It has helped tremendously with my understanding of the markets and economies.

pilgrims_gold

(12/03/2003; 07:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112751)

**** $401.10 ****

Will Gold go to $500 next year?

It is almost inevitable, maybe certain, possibly compulsory, conceivably unavoidable, perchance
absolute, perhaps assured, supposedly beyond doubt, essentially categorical, and fundamentally
cocksure to happen.

Yeah maybe!

Cavan Man

(12/03/2003; 07:39:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112752)

pmurgsRSA

The gold bull has started. It's the denomination of the asset in USD that is killing the goose.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 08:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112753)

With U.S. Busy, China Is Romping With Neighbors

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/03/international/asia/03LETT.htmlsnippit:

"After Afghanistan, after Iraq, after bringing democracy to the Middle East, when the United States refocuses on Asia, it will find a much different China in a much different region," James J. Przystup, a research fellow at the National Defense University, wrote recently.

Beyond the economics and the diplomacy, something else is going on. China has the allure of the new. A new affinity is developing between the once feared China and the rest of Asia.

Karim Raslan, a Malaysian lawyer and writer who traveled to Washington recently on a Fulbright scholarship, put it this way. The American "obsession" with terror seems tedious to Asians, he said. "We've all got to live, we've all got to make money," said Mr. Raslan. "The Chinese want to make money and so do we."

Goldilox:

Not missing a beat, China fiddles while the west burns! Hey, Nero! put down that torch!

Max Rabbitz

(12/03/2003; 08:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112754)

pmurgsRSA

How fortunate to have this opportunity to exchange Rand paper promises for real wealth at such bargain prices. I fondly remember the days of $260-280 gold. It seems like such a short time ago.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 08:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112755)

GM drops plans to sell Mortgage Unit

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/03/markets/markets_newyork/index.htmsnippit:

Fellow Dow stock General Motors (GM: up $2.19 to $45.47, Research, Estimates) rallied more than 5 percent after the company reported a more than 20 percent gain in U.S. vehicle sales in November, while competitors Ford Motor Co. (F: up $0.06 to $12.98, Research, Estimates) and Chrysler (DCX: up $0.74 to $39.28, Research, Estimates) saw declines.

Late Tuesday GM also dropped tentative plans to sell its massive commercial mortgage arm, expressing confidence it can find ways to access new funding.

Goldilox:

Commercial property still looks good to lenders who want to capitalize on the potential growth in payrolls.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 09:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112756)

Too Hot for Fed?

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/02/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htmsnippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The bond market's Uncle Alan has told it again and again that a Fed rate hike just isn't going to happen soon. But if the bond market takes a look under the bed, it will find that there really are plenty of monsters down there.

First off, the economy is soaring. The third-quarter's growth rate of 8.2 percent was the best the United States has seen in nearly 20 years. Yes, the nation's key inflation gauge, the consumer price index, remains muted, but commodity prices are surging. The Commodity Research Bureau Index of commodity prices has touched six-year highs; copper, a favorite early indicator among inflation hawks, is up 37 percent this year.

Meantime, the dollar has fallen sharply, sinking to its lowest level in three years against the yen (despite a massive effort by Japanese authorities to keep the buck strong) and its lowest levels ever against the euro.

Goldilox:

Even the cheerleaders are finding it hard to believe that Sir AG won't raise the rates. Of course, if he can "outstare" the EMU, maybe they'll drop theirs first.

Boilermaker

(12/03/2003; 09:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112757)

Belgian msg#: 112739

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm"(BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study)"

I heartily agree with Sir Belgian's recommendation and have posted the site above. This article offers excellent long-term perspective on gold, currencies and changing world economic power.

Thanks for the post, Sir B

Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 10:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112758)

Invisible Ace in the Gold Camp - Sol (FSO)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/120203.htmlsnippit:

The central bankers who are pumping so much money like some insane beasts are in effect destroying the dollar now at velocity that is close to reaching a terminal level. This in turn is pushing up the currencies of resource-based nations to extreme levels, one such country is South Africa. Why do I specifically mention this country? South Africa has the largest Gold, Platinum, diamond and various other commodities reserves in the world. The Rand has appreciated at extreme pace to become what I have called the best performing currency in the word. From taking 14 Rands to buy 1 dollar it now takes less than 7 Rands to do the same and this has taken place in approx 1 year.

This has had the net effect of actually pushing the cost of South African mining companies through the roof. Their costs are in rands, but they have to sell the product in depreciating dollars so they keep making less and less and they reaching a critical point, If the Rand should appreciate more say past the 6.50 point, then many companies are going to be forced to start shutting down.�

Goldilox:

More analysis of $$ vs. rising currencies, especially in commodity rich countries. I keep rethinking my statement of a few days ago. If the SM is up 35% (rough average of the indeces), and the dollar is down 30%, the SM growth is barely positive - hardly a "recovery". Many authors are also noting that the huge multinationals are reporting profit growth that is more due to currency arbitrage than actual increases in sales and margin.

Gandalf the White

(12/03/2003; 11:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112759)

WELCOME Sir PmurgsRSA !!

pmurgsRSA (12/3/03; 07:27:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 112750)
===
The WORLD gets smaller as the Goldhearts join together !
Now that your at the TABLEROUND -- Keep on posting.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/03/2003; 11:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112760)

Very observant, Sir Clink !

Clink! (12/3/03; 06:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 112748)
Freudian slip, Sir Gandalf ?
===
YES, Sir Clink! You caught me, the "Driver", rated as the most responsible person in the minds of the Officials !
AND, I only let a few of the Leaves out of the little red top tubes for CLINKING !!!
<;-)

Zhisheng

(12/03/2003; 11:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112761)

Up into the Close.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1And just above yesterday's close.

Gold seems to be holding over $400.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 11:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112762)

The Once and Future Money - Bob Landis

http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings4.htmlsnippit:

Fiats Past and Present

Unit Context Duration Severity

Banque Royale Notes Regency of Louis XV 1716-1720 one livre to zero

Continental Bills American Revolution 1775-1780 1/specie dollar to 40/specie dollar

Assignats French Revolution 1790-1797 1/gold franc to 600/gold franc

Reichsmarks Weimar Germany 1919-1924 .08/US$ to 4.2 trillion/US$

Federal Reserve Notes Cold War 1971-20?? to be determined

Now, despite their obvious differences, these episodes had several important features in common. To begin with, it's worth noting that in each case the fateful errors were made by talented and well-educated people. They were their countries� best and brightest financial minds. This includes John Law, by the way, who's gotten very bad, and I think, unfair, press ever since. These men did not take the road to ruin frivolously, but rather as a measured response to a set of exigent circumstances. The point is that governments are simply incapable of managing a money supply. The pressures and temptations always prove too great.

Goldilox:

A very good historical account of historical fiat failures and correlation to today's economic woes.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 11:46:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112763)

TABLE format not copied

The previous post began with a table, whose tabs didn't copy. When expaned, it compares the "fiat bubbles" by the damage done in their currency.

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 12:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112764)

Dollar falls to new lifetime lows against Euro

snippit:

Dollar falls to new lifetime low against euro
By Jennifer Hughes
Published: December 3 2003 11:20 | Last Updated: December 3 2003 18:20

The dollar fell to a fresh low against the euro on Wednesday as the selling that took currency investors by surprise on Tuesday continued.

The Euro reached a new lifetime high against the dollar at 1.2128 in mid-day trade, beating the high of 1.2113 it made in Asian trade.

G'lox:

No signs of letup in the dollar fall. As Sinclair says, "Stay the Course". Gee, I wonder where he first heard that?

Cavan Man

(12/03/2003; 12:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112765)

OPEC

If we only had some EURO or AU.....OPEC minister says output cut coming, now or later
Reuters News Service

VIENNA - Today OPEC said it was seeking to defend higher oil prices to compensate for the impact on the cartel's purchasing power of the U.S. dollar's decline on currency markets.

Influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said prices, now over $30 a barrel for U.S. crude, were justified by the dollar's slump against other major currencies.

Speaking ahead of a Thursday meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries he warned that the cartel would need to cut output again early next year to support the market.

"Current prices are right," said Naimi. "The dollar is weakening and purchasing power is quite weak so the price (of oil) is OK."

CM comment: They'd better bring Iraq on full stream ASAP

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/03/2003; 12:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112766)

The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Build your financial base with bullion!

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 12:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112767)

Tent City reprise?

Given the record low US savings, if the real estate bubble implodes into a hearty increase of foreclosures, watch for a return to the Hoovervilles and Reaganvilles that housed so many "new" street people during those post-bubble years. It reminds me of a song I published and recorded during Ronnie's reign, if I may indulge our readers.

Tent City
� 1983 Manco Arts, Inc

Dear Mr. President, I know you're working very hard,
so I don't want too much time or too much pity.
I know you'll find a way to end these unemployment blues,
'Cause there're no more vacancies in "Tent City".

-Chorus -
Tent City's in the heart of San Jose.
Down under the freeway and across the USA
We increase their population day by day
But you tell us if we "stay the course", we'll all be OK.

Now the EDD has listings for a hundred jobs or so,
and we all go out to find them every day.
When we show up to interview we're 50,000 strong
and two bucks an hour is all they're gonna pay

Chorus -

Now I've heard them say your programs have inflation on the run,
and the interest rate is low as low can be.
And I know it's costing billions just to keep the Russians down,
but you kept us down in San Jose for free.

Chorus -

So tell us Mr. President just what you're gonna do
'Cause the current situation isn't pretty.
Remember while you ride your horse
The millions who must "Stay the course"
When the only home they have is in "Tent City"

-Chorus and out

G'lox:

This was recorded in San Jose during the Tent City situation in the winter of '83. The ABC (Cap Cities) affiliate made a video of the locals in shelters and souplines and dubbed my recording over it on the 6:00 news. The following day, the producer (one of their more senior guys) was sacked and I saw him a week later on a weeny local independent station. It doesn't usually pay to create politically critical art. Just ask the Mogambo Guru if he's bringing down a Wall St analyst's salary, and watch him turn a rainbow of colors while his blood pressure oscillates!

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 13:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112769)

Gold and Commodity funds

With all the new PM and commodity funds hitting the streets, I wonder how long it will be before somebody oversubscribes one (a la the Producers) and the commodity fund managers join the SM and MF in their rogue's gallery. This has all the earmarkings of a scandal being born. Put your gold IN YOUR OWN HANDS! Call CPM for a quote!

misetich

(12/03/2003; 14:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112770)

Global: Growth at What Cost? - S. Roach

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031201-mon.html#anchor0Snip:

The big contrast lies in the future: In late 1993, the Fed was nearing the end of its policy accommodation, whereas today the central bank seems content to stay on hold for some time to come.
......................
In late 1993, the deficit was already on its way down; it had averaged 4.6% of GDP in 1991-92 and was headed toward balance in late 1997, before recording four years of surplus over the 1998-2001 period. In the current climate, fiscal policy is moving in precisely the opposite direction -- federal deficits that seem likely to hold well above 4% of GDP through at least 2004-05.
................................
Yet in the context of today's massive and record US current-account deficit, there's plenty of room for further slippage in the dollar -- even more so that the 5% additional drop that occurred from levels prevailing in late 1993.
........................
America's net private saving rate (for consumers and businesses, combined -- net of depreciation) currently stands at 5.0% of GNP -- well below the 9% average of the 1960s and the 6.9% reading of late 1993, when the previous recovery was shifting into high gear.
....................
And that underscores one of the biggest imbalances of all -- the massive US current-account deficit that is required to attract such foreign capital. In 2Q03, the US current-account deficit stood at 5.1% of GDP, more than three times the 1.6% gap prevailing in late 1993.
..................
American households have led the charge in this regard. Even though nominal interest rates have fallen to 37-year lows by some measures, debt service remains uncomfortably high when compared with the jobless recovery of the early 1990s.
...............
According to Federal Reserve statistics, interest expenses as a share of disposable personal income stood at 13.3% in 2Q03, well in excess of the 10.7% reading in late 1993. A similar pattern is evident in a new broader gauge just released by the Fed -- a measure of "financial obligations," which also includes auto lease payments, home rental expenses, and homeowner insurance and property tax payments; this metric stood at 18.1% of disposable personal income in 2Q03, well above the 15.9% reading of late 1993. Debt service is high because of the extraordinary overhang in the absolute volume of consumer indebtedness; household sector debt outstanding rose above 80% of GDP in mid-2003, well in excess of the 65% share prevailing in 1993.
.......................

******************
Misetich

Roach has been on a tear, sounding the alarm bells for quite some time and is been right on the mark for the last several years.

The item that stands out besides the well known deficits, is the increasing amount of otherwise disposal income that is being required to service the ever growing mountain of debt.

Disturbingly as Roach points out the willingness of Americans to opt for higher level of leverage. Low IR have encouraged consumers to refinance and you the proceeds to 1) consolidate debts 2) support stock market investments (replacing previously obtained margin debt on the high flyers such as Microsoft, Cisco - thus the day trader has turned out to be a 'long term investor' 3) Plunge additional investments in 'low priced (!) stocks attempting to lower the costbase and recoup those trillions of evaporated stock losses
4) speculation in residential real estate market

The Feds have encouraged this behaviour - as Sir Ponzi Greenspan has repeated many times he's not concerned by high debt levels since asset values have increased proportianetely ( simulteneously denying any existing 'price inflation')

Crystaballing ahead

2004 is nearly upon us. The Feds are couting on increased inventory levels to keep the 'flamed' economy going. If this does not materialize the last stimuli (tax rebates Q2) is the last "additional flame up" -

Its doubtful the Whitehouse is going to "tolerate" higher IR in the months ahead -

Lets stay tuned.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the White

(12/03/2003; 14:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112771)

TA TA TA --AND the "KING of the HILL" is Sir Smeagol !!!! ( AGAIN !!!) <;-)

12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) 404 401.5 403.9 13:29 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26
===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84
====
WOWSERS Sir Smeagol !!
You are atop the hill as "KING OF THE HILL" for the second straight day ! HANG IN THERE !
I bet you get lots of company around you now.
<;-)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/03/2003; 15:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112772)

Page Update!

CoBra(too)

(12/03/2003; 15:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112773)

SAR hitting new High aginst the US$

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256DF100595C40?OpenDocument"South Africa's mining companies continued their white-knuckle ride into the red today as the rand soared to its highest level in almost four years".

Looks like the SA Gold Miner's have been the only losers so far this year in the PM sector. No wonder, considering the steep advance of the SAR from almost 14 Rand to the Buck to 6.25. Why is it that Mbeki's government is still clinging to relatively high interest rates and as such inviting vulture hedge funds to continue their Rand carry trade activities. The SA economy, and not the mining sector alone is suffering the consequences.

A country hit by economic and severe HIV malaise has not learned the lessons of Argentina, SE-Asia, Russia and other similar currency debacles - and the country won't be able to afford it any longer.

My guess is that a turning point may be nigh - and the carry trade specs will try to exit all at once - in particular when the POG starts to bound in leaps - even vs the SAR. I wouldn't want to miss the show, which reminds me of FOA's public burning of a 1000 share certificate of Gold Fields, which is still trading around US$ 13.70 vs the petty 4-5 bucks at this cremation.

POG in SAR is probably the only currency on this globe not having participated in POG advance - so far. As a born contrarian, I would feel we're close to a reversal!

Wouldn't wanna miss that show - cb2

SteveH

(12/03/2003; 15:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112774)

CNBC this morning

You know how, in gest, when you say something you have to say, but don't want people to understand it so you cough when you are saying it, well, this morning, the young lad who gives the economy talk (perhaps from WSJ) sort of did that when he said, "dollar" and "reserve currency status" all in one sentence.

It was one of those things someone says that has great significance but because there was no ensuing explanation or discussion of that concept, the viewer was left going with the flow of conversation and not returning to what could have been a very promising discussion or concept.

As such, the idea of the US dollar as losing world reserve status has now been trial balooned on cnbc. Whether we hear of this from them again, I guess that is to be seen.

For those of us on hear, wasn't it about three years ago now (maybe two) that we all had these great in depth discussions about this? Well, yes.

So, does that mean that mainstreem TV is about three years behind our discussions? I guess so.

Kind of sad really.

SteveH

Belgian

(12/03/2003; 15:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112775)

miscellany

- 9 tonnes WAG Gold has been reschuffled to...Vietnam (?) a rapid emerging Asian satelite.
- Saudi Arabia decided to open up for industrial investment and ...mining exploration.
- C.Powell warns Putin not to intervene in Georgia (pipeline-corridor) !
- HSBC sees a �/$ target of 1,35.
- Yuan will stealthly revaluate with +/- 30% against the US$.
- Trichet doesn't want to comment on the dollar.
- People of good will negociate on Israeli/Palestinian peace (Geneva) "without" interference of anyone from the quartet (examplary).

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 16:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112776)

China Reschedules Soybean Buying trip

snippit:

REUTERS UPDATE 3-China back on track for U.S. soy buying mission
December 03, 2003 15:31:48 (ET)

By K.T. Arasu

CHICAGO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - China has put back on track a trip to the United States to buy soybeans, which was abruptly canceled last month when a trade dispute with Washington broke out, a U.S. industry official said on Wednesday.

In a possible easing of tensions between the world's top and fifth-largest economies, Chinese soybean buyers have indicated they would visit Chicago in two weeks and meet with grain companies to possibly sign purchase contracts.

The news was cheered by grains traders, who rallied soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade in the hope that China, the world's top soy importer and the No. 1 market for U.S. soy, would continue its hefty purchases from the United States.

"It gave a psychological boost to the market," said grains analyst Charlie Sernatinger of brokerage O'Connor & Co.

Grains analyst Bill Nelson of A.G. Edwards said the visit would help "ease tensions between two major trading partners".

China however has yet to reschedule a visit by its wheat buyers to the United States that was also scrapped when Washington slapped import quotas on Chinese textiles.

Some U.S. officials have blamed job losses in the United States on the rapid rise of Chinese textile imports, claiming that China's currency was undervalued against the greenback.

G'lox:

GWB backing off the steel tarrifs eases some of the mounting trade tensions. Now let's get those Chinese undies back on the shelves.

R Powell

(12/03/2003; 16:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112777)

News

http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=7867 I got this from Caper at the neighbors

misetich

(12/03/2003; 16:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112778)

Reality Check: US Recruiters: Nov Jobs Another Modest Advance>

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

--Signs of Good, Not Spectacular, Holiday Retail Hiring
--Progress Described As Somewhat Bumpy
--The Reluctance To Hire Permanently Is Thawing
......................

Progress is seen as slow and bumpy, but most believe a turnaround
has occurred and many look forward to a much stronger 2004, they say.
....................
What's still in the way is an underlying reluctance to hire
permanently,
................
"We've not changed our view that things are much the same," said
John Bowmer, CEO of Adecco, the global staffing firm with a U.S. base in
Melville, Long Island.
..................
Linda Paulk, president of Snelling Personnel Services, a national
recruiter based in Dallas, sees a persistent reluctance by management to
hire people full-time.

She noted an increase in orders during November, but it was a bumpy
ride.
.....................
He described the improvement as "a quick thaw" rather than a
"roaring" rebound.
..................
Many nurses have become the primary wage earners for their families.
They no longer have the luxury of jumping to temporary agencies and
taking shifts when they can get them."

Gallagher estimates that roughly 23% of registered nurses employed
part-time in 2001 have returned to full-time work as their spouses lost
work or as they became nervous about general economic conditions.
........................
"Looks like not much has changed this month from last, except for a
few additional orders from retail and call centers," said Julie
Claggett, communications coordinator for Express Personnel Services, a
national firm based in Oklahoma City.
.................
"I'm feeling better going into 2004 then I did going into 2003," he
said. "Usually, these downturns last one year. We're in our third year
of this, so you've got to believe this industry is going to come back."
****************
Misetich

Across the country the "hope" is high - reality check says its going to be tough times ahead for the unemployed seeking jobs

The US jobless recovery continues

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

R Powell

(12/03/2003; 16:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112779)

Goldilox.....Soybeans and gold..

Thanks for the soybean news. I was hoping they would come back and counting on it as the USA is the only source (in quantity) of the beans that China has to have. They've been buying cotton and copper too and the last two weeks have seen huge corn export orders with "unknown" listed as their destination. Unless soybean sales abate (through price rationing?), we will literally run out before the South American crop is harvested next year.

And gold? Yes, and the point here is that China has vast needs which may only be filled by those who hold and are willing to sell the items needed. Where will China recycle their dollars? I believe that China is now receiving the majority of our exported trade deficit dollars. Gold is and has been running a yearly supply/demand deficit for a long time. If China decides to exchange paper for physical gold, who has enough to fill the order? Would these sources be willing to sell?

Does anyone know how much gold China is accumulating now or in the recent past? I have the notion that eventually China must unpeg its currency from the U.S. dollar. They'll not want to be holding huge amounts of dollar fiat after their own currency is free from a set exchange, right?
Thoughts?
Rich

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 16:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112780)

China Depeg and commodities

@ Rich

I truly believe that China's demand for commodities will hit harder than a trade war. When they trade US$ reserves for goods and commodities, they will drive some prices through the ceiling by overweighting the demand curve. They obviously want to reduce their US$ reserves (who wouldn't in this free fall), and what better way than to spend them. That way, no one accuses them of direct currency manipulation. Besides, in the long run, it helps the trade deficit, as well. I noticed the tarriff rumors began while the Chinese delegations were here talking to all sorts of companies about major purchases, i.e. Boeing, Chrysler, Deere, etc. Do some folks NOT want the trade deficit rebalanced? Maybe not the ones who need T-bills sold to foreign $ holders. How sad this whole imbalance has become.

Limits will probably be placed on many commodities (most especially gold), but under-the-counter transactions might start separating paper from physical in many markets beyond just gold. Until NO one wants US$ for their goods, there will be some price on things - even if it is discounted to cover the currency market "action".

Goldilox

(12/03/2003; 17:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112781)

YUAN

@Rich

Oh, and the YUAN has to be a huge arbitrage trade at some point. The question is WHEN? One cannot buy futures without a date of expiriation, and continuously rolling them over gets costly, as well.

Sprout

(12/03/2003; 17:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112782)

****$387.90*****

On to the subject of whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004,

We will NOT see SPOT at $500.00 in 2004!

AND WHY

Cuss he's going to jump right over $500.00 and miss it completely!

Smeagol

(12/03/2003; 18:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112783)

We musst give proper credit

The great Wizard says -
"You are atop the hill as "KING OF THE HILL" for the second straight day ! HANG IN THERE !" -
and we are sspeechless, yess, at being King AGAIN (capering) and very, very happy.
O, but Smeagol would not be in ssuch a lofty place unless Slingshot had not possted his guess firsst - he NAILED our guess, he did, even as we typed ours! So we had to guess again! (bows to Sir Slingshot)

S.

steady

(12/03/2003; 18:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112784)

the bottom the top in between steam a dream

some say a watched pot never boils, i say i watched pot teaches you about heat and boiling.
a pot does not erupt into full blown rolling boil, it bubbles it perks it even bursts once in a whoile beore the entire pot is boiling.
the currency specific fire balls that are perculating thru the financial sector derivates that target each company burning fireholes thru everything unjust and packed with lies (ny) ending up in the golden cladera that has shown signs of reaching the next stage after simmering and releasing steam, its in this never never land of dream where things arent as they seem, i must be living inside a dream. one where i can buy 74 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold a ratio so out of whak its obsured, or so ive been told , others say be bold hold gold, while others have placed there bets on a golden/silver star named the dinar, if so i hope i awake after ive cashed in my take...........

R Powell

(12/03/2003; 19:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112785)

Goldilox // Beans and gold continued..

Agree. I'm on the long side of most everything that China is now buying or is likely to buy in the near future. I have reasons to believe this will also include corn and perhaps silver, both of which China has been exporting in the past. The flip side is to short most of what China exports, like U.S. textile manufacturing. Jim Rogers has voiced this same opinion. He is a well known name so he gets the credit for this view even though many of us saw it coming.

So many of the reasons that the POG has been rising and will continue to rise also are directly applicable to most physical commodities. It's partly the currency depreciation. The POG can be used as a barometer for many things other than just the purchasing power of currency. Many economists view gold primarily as an indictor (usually contrary to what they're expecting, predicting or hoping for). Also, I've hear many justify opinions based on the POG's trend. It's amazing what they'll use the POG to try to prove! They'll probably change their tune later on to say that the rising POG was the cause (rather than just an indictor of conditions) of future economic misfortunes. But, it won't be $11.00 soybeans, $2.50 coffee or $1.50 cotton that caused the problems, right? No, it will be that $1200 gold that's to blame for all our problems! Gold will not answer the charges, never has. This may be quite a long term affair.

I do not trade the currency exchanges as I don't like the unseen risk, always present, imposed by the intriques of politics but rumor has it that both Buffett and Soros are short the dollar. Soros also claims to be long gold. I believe Buffett still holds at least 89 million ounces of physical silver in London. The Yuan may indeed be a force to be reckoned with in the future. If, as some speculate, the Yuan will not be backed by many dollar reserves in the future, well, what then? We shall see.

Does anyone (Townie?) have up to date information on government debt sales? After last month's dismal sales, I'm just wondering if current sales are finding buyers?
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(12/03/2003; 20:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112786)

The Solution?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/12/04/cneu04.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/portal/2003/12/04/ixportal.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=47795Tomorrow's London daily Telegraph (found on Drudge - sorry if this has been posted before)
SNIP
The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels.
==
FOA, where are you?

admin

(12/03/2003; 20:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112787)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

What does the richest man in Hong Kong have to do with gold?

Druid

(12/03/2003; 20:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112788)

$5Bln Tax Charge Hangs Over Yukos

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/12/03/001.htmlSnip

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2003. Page 1

$5Bln Tax Charge Hangs Over Yukos

By Catherine Belton
Staff Writer Yukos scrambled to keep its floundering $35 billion merger with Sibneft afloat on Tuesday, an uphill struggle made harder by a leaked Tax Ministry document saying it owed $5 billion in back taxes.

Group Menatep, Yukos' parent company, issued a statement Tuesday evening denying a Wall Street Journal report that it had agreed to cede control of Yukos to Roman Abramovich, Sibneft's aggressive owner, in a bid to save the merger.

"The deal to merge Yukos and Sibneft was completed in October this year. ... The agreement between core shareholders of Yukos and Sibneft ... remains in full legal force," the statement said. Under the terms of the merger, agreed to in April, Sibneft gets to choose the chairman of the board of directors for the new company, while core Yukos shareholders get to name the management team.

In its statement, however, Group Menatep did not rule out that the agreement could not be changed in the future.

"The core shareholders of Yukos think that such questions cannot be decided in backroom deals," the statement said. "All questions that would change the parameters of the deal will be discussed taking into account the interests of minority shareholders and will be publicly formulated."

Sibneft pulled out of the deal at the last minute Friday. A source close to Yukos has said the move was a Kremlin-backed bid to force the company's owners, who are reeling from a five-month legal assault, into handing over control to Abramovich and his partners, who are seen as more loyal to President Vladimir Putin. Two core Yukos shareholders, Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, are in jail on charges of fraud and tax evasion, and most of the rest have fled the country.

Druid: Man! "POLITICAL WILL" playing at theaters all over the world. Here are a couple of interesting quotes taken from an interesting read:

"Churchill had declared in 1939, " I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

"In 1998, too, Russia was beyond the realm of econometrics, even of the computers in Greenwich"

These quotes were taken from the book "THE RISE AND FALL OF LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT WHEN GENIUS FAILED" Roger Lowenstein

It appears from my vantage point that President Putin wants all the major players(Central Banker, Finance Minister, Oil Tycoons) rowing in the same direction.

Paper Avalanche

(12/03/2003; 20:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112789)

A synopsis of Hubbert's Peak...

http://www.rense.com/general45/rune.htmInteresting article.

PA

eccentricventures

(12/03/2003; 21:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112790)

gold bull or dollar bear?

one of my fellow gold bugs, who is far more knowledgeable than me about economics, keeps saying so far this is still a dollar bear market more than a gold bull. i know all the underlying reasons for gold to rise, but is he right? is this just gold tracking the dollar now? seems to me gold started rising out of the pits before the dollar started sliding, but my memory may be false on this point. any thoughts?

21mabry

(12/03/2003; 21:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112791)

palladium

Palladium has not made a move yet,its way off its highs.MIGHT be a chance for profits there.21

steady

(12/03/2003; 21:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112792)

gold

Gata love keeping our eye on the golden ball.

goldquest

(12/03/2003; 22:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112793)

test

Operative

(12/03/2003; 22:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112794)

@ eccentricventures

Gold Bull? Dollar Bear?Will toss my two cents worth into replying to your question.
After reading a few thousand words with usually the author taking one side or the other of your question I have only been able to wrap my simple mind around the fact that both are right. I don't think it can be boiled down to a simple skins vs shirts game. The dollar has ample reasons for it's continued move down, and gold, after a 20 year beating has plenty of reasons to continue the upside trend, reasons other than the dollar.

mikal

(12/03/2003; 22:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112795)

@Invisible Hand

Thanks for the Telegraph link. The euro bankers seek to balance the concerns of their bosses with those of the laborers and politicians? Belgium must know more.
There seems no end to the intriguing news items here and the excellent work by the owners and volunteer staff in this alternative media.
Viva free press!
Lastly, billionaire George Soros committed to unseating this administration according to the Independent in Great Britain. How sincere could this reportedly expensive effort be if it were actually financing the socialists and various globalist interests?
Besides that, if he succeeds, it won't be without a lot of help from gravity, momentum and dizzying cyclic and centripetal circumstances, ad nauseum- gotta run!

Black Blade

(12/03/2003; 22:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112796)

Miners Cannot Supply Gold Market

http://m1.mny.co.za/mgl03.nsf/Current/80256D35003463C485256D39007A880C?OpenDocument
Snippit:

According to Steven Mathews, commodity strategist at Tudor Investment Corporation, the hedge fund, the gold market is so dramatically oversupplied that it has ceased to behave as a currency. Mathews said relative shortage of readily accessible stocks of a commodity allowed for speculative trading activity, a feature notably absent in the gold market. "If production stopped today, you would run out of soya beans in 2.39 days," he says; Zinc stocks extend to 57 days, nickel to 74 days and heating oil to 32 days. Gold comes in at a staggering 7,000 days. "From the perspective of someone monitoring fundamental events from day to day, gold is just not particularly compelling," said Mathews. "The possibility of fundamental analysis is impossible for gold�but the currency aspect is just so strong in this market so we trade it like a currency," he said.

Black Blade: A fairly interesting article but as usual there is some moron like Steven Mathews who is quoted about "huge central bank reserves". There are several fallacies that should be addressed here but I will only touch on a couple due to some other commitments I have right now. 1) Most of the gold "on the books" in central banks vaults (especially in the west) are either gone, loaned out (and will never be returned because it was sold), or committed to reserves by laws of various nations (in fact several central banks are activity accumulating gold to diversify reserves); 2) There are few if any qualitative or accurate audits of any such gold said to be in national central bank vaults; 4) few banks will sell gold reserves (especially in a rising market); 3) The largest holder of gold reserves is the United States (supposedly exists in Fort Knox Depository and at the West Point storage vault but has never been audited or allowed to be audited) and that gold will not be sold because it would be not only illegal but would take an act of congress and signed by the president to allow any such sales (this even applies to gold held in trust by the IMF). The fundamentals for gold are especially strong as less above ground gold per person exists today than at any time in recorded history and therefore is more rare than ever before. It will become even more rare as less will be mined for a number of reasons and the "easy pickins" are already plucked. Still, little exploration activity is underway even now as gold passes through $400 an ounce. Former used car salesmen types like Steven Mathews are more of an embarrassment for the investment community when they don't do their homework. I may revisit this issue again if time permits but I just browsed the article in MK's update page. Besides I will have something to say about the "smart money" and "investment partnerships" in the next couple of days as I have been doing some work lately as a consultant to some well heeled investors looking at alternative investments. For now just let me say � "get gold and silver now while you can"! As Mk Alluded to a couple of days ago, premiums on precious metals are going to rise soon and I may add some insight as to why, and why you and I are several steps ahead of the crowd already but time is running short for accumulation at still decent prices.

slingshot

(12/03/2003; 23:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112797)

Sir Smeagol

Now that takes the cake.

I truly enjoy these contest given by our Host. Read every entry. The contest is gamemanship at its best.
Wait too long and you miss your spot. With todays world, at any given time things could change drasticly affecting the POG. I find the entries of exurberance are countered with temperance and that is healthy in our education of the gold market. Our expectations are well founded, but our timing may be wanting.

Good Luck to All

Slingshot------------------<>

Black Blade

(12/03/2003; 23:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112798)

Gold through the roof, $400/oz may be the floor

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031202/markets_gold_rally_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Splurging on gold as part of broad dollar disinvestment, investors chased the precious metal above $400 an ounce this week and are hopeful that the long-time barrier will be a platform for further gains. Gold futures closed above $400 for the first time in almost eight years on Monday, and held the mark at the close again on Tuesday. Bulls do not look for it to pull back far below the historic psychological level, although profit taking and a bounce in the dollar are risks. "I would say it's very asymmetrical to the upside -- $380 to, I don't know, $500, over the next year," said a commodities analyst at a large hedge fund.

"It's desensitizing the level in terms of a psychological number and it's pushing us into a possible higher trading range," said Bernard Hunter, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "I don't think there is a lot of downside room with the dollar doing what it's doing," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "Four hundred is just a round number," he said, predicting gold would trade in a range of $385/390 to $410/$415 for a while. "The next $10-$15 in gold are going to be tough."

Gold could weather even severe ups and downs in the dollar, if investors see it as holding value against volatility in the currency markets. "We're talking about a structural change in the dollar's value more than anything else," Hunter said. "So whilst you are going to see some intra-day reaction, I think the market will always go back to their longer-term view on the currency and gold is going to react again in the short-term."

The gold rally is not broad based and experts noted that the purchasing power of an ounce of gold has stayed relatively constant from a global perspective. "What you are seeing is a global bull market in gold in which it will ultimately go up in terms of all currencies but it will not go up in terms of material items," said the analyst. "In other words, 1/10 of an ounce is still going to buy a barrel of oil, at the end of it."

Black Blade: $400 an ounce as a new floor price? Perhaps! Going higher in US dollar terms? Absolutely yes! Will there be occasional pullbacks? Likely so. But realize that the US dollar is going to get weaker and the "smart money" has got the point while the Lemmings are listening to the carnival barkers and Wall Street pitchmen for stocks and bonds. This is a long term (several years) bull market in precious metals and nothing will stop this freight train now.

slingshot

(12/03/2003; 23:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112799)

1/10 0z. of gold

If the selling price of the 1/10 oz of gold is now at $48.00 including premium and the POO at approx $30.00 My question is, as the POG rises and accelerates how many barrels of oil will the 1/10 oz buy.

# of oz. of silver to buy 1 oz of gold
# of oz. of gold to but the stock market

How many barrels of oil a 1/10 oz buys will be the new ratio.

If the Euro is pegged to gold. How many Euro's will it take?

How high can POO go? At what point will POO stabilise as gold continues to climb? If so, what is the impact?

Just a thought.

Slingshot--------------<>

slingshot

(12/04/2003; 00:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112800)

1/10 0z of gold

second thoughtIf a country who is mainly dependent on oil and has not thrown away its gold reserves emerge on top in the ecomomic sense. Even in hyperinflation?

Can not connect the dots.
Slingshot----------<>

Gandalf the White

(12/04/2003; 00:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112801)

TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!

POG Contest UPDATE and the Revised Rules !
POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 00:10 (Denver time) THURSDAY 12/4/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)

---
The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested a December �03 COMEX Contract POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a German "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by a short remark on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, --- AND WHY !

<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MST) on SUNDAY, December 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY

===
Just in time for that last minute Xmas present !!
"COME ON IN" ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! The TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)
PS: IF I should happen to miss your Contest entry -- YELL!
TKS

slingshot

(12/04/2003; 02:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112802)

Midas Crusade

Gandalf and Omar finally caught up with the army of Goldbugs that now formed back into a line to fit the road before them. The River Epis provided a resource as to cleanse themslves from the dirt of travel and refill their casts with fresh water. The trees were a welcome sight after the journey across the Mozul.
The Army of the Goldbugs come to a hault upon a buff which from a distance, overlooked Hammerton.
Sir M.K.. Gandalf,Omar, Sir Black Blade, Lady Waverider and Cougar looked down on a fortified town. They could see the bridge entrances with their raise earthworks for defense. Hammerton was walled in its entirety but not as a castle for its swift rivers was more than any moat could accomplish.
As this band of warriors sat upon their horses they heard the words from Sir M.K.

"Let it begin"

Slingshot---------------<>

Dollar Bill

(12/04/2003; 04:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112803)

(:- I)

Brussels considers imposing currency controls
The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels
The document, drafted last month on the orders of Mr Solbes's director-general, Klaus Regling, concludes: "Should extremely disturbing capital movements endanger the operation of economic and monetary union, Article 59 EC provides for the possibility to adopt restrictive measures for a period not exceeding six months."

The move came as the euro hit highs against the US dollar, touching 1.2125 yesterday before closing at 1.2109. It has gained 42pc in less than two years.

The euro-zone has borne the brunt of the global realignment. The Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar, while Japan has capped the yen by buying US bonds.

Industry leaders in Germany and France say the euro has crossed the "pain threshold" and risks aborting the euro-zone's fragile recovery. The latest survey data shows a renewed fall in confidence among French consumers and German retailers.
Jean-Philippe Cotis, the OECD's chief economist, said further appreciation posed a "great danger" to the euro-zone.

It is widely assumed EU law guarantees the free movement of capital but, after combing through the treaties and court judgments, EU experts have concluded that this "absolute freedom" can be limited in an emergency.
The document is annexed to the Commission's 2003 EU Economic Review, released quietly last week. Some officials in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris believe the Bush administration is engaged in a "beggar-thy-neighbour" currency war.

Strong factions within the French and German governments want the European Central Bank to counter the "easy credit" policy of the US Federal Reserve with aggressive monetary expansion in Europe.

Faced with stubborn resistance from the anti-inflation hawks at the ECB, they are instead eyeing exchange rate policy as a means of imposing their will.

While capital controls are viewed as the "nuclear option" if all else fails, the collapsing dollar is rapidly bringing the issue to a head. A senior EU official told the Daily Telegraph that an exchange rate of 1.35 against the dollar is a likely trigger.

It is unclear where such a decision would leave Britain. While treaty law does not allow controls between EU states, any restrictions on dollar inflows into the euro-zone would create a legal nightmare and play havoc with the City of London.

Oliver Letwin, the shadow chancellor, said: "It is utterly risible for the EU to take a step back in time and pretend it can effectively control global capital markets."

The European Commission said there were no plans to impose exchange controls. "It's utter rubbish. The fact that we have carried out a study doesn't mean we are going to do it," said a spokesman.

Belgian

(12/04/2003; 04:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112804)

@T.I.H. (Telegraph article - Ambrose)

YESSSSSSSS, the dollar *** dreams *** about being able to force the EU in "agressively" expanding its monetary base !
Why are you calling FOA, when The "Transition" is "visibly" in process.

Yep, for the time being, the euro and associates, wish to let it happen *** ORDERLY *** !!! Watch how the euro + oil (gas) are nicely acting in concert.
Will the dollar's geo-stratego for oil-control work (ME + Caspian) ?

Let's watch carefully "if" the EU politicians leave the ECB's independance (euro-management) intact !
Watch for any change in HSBC's predictions.

To the rand-watchers : Isn't it amazing that such a big move happened in such a tiny small rand-currency market ?
What if they all run for the exit at the same time...or is there something else going on ? Rand decoupling from the dollar and clicking onto the euro ???

mas

(12/04/2003; 04:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112805)

OPEC

Almost fell out of my chair this morning when I heard OPEC want's to reevaluate it's bench mark prices in line with the drop in the dollar. AND that it would cut oil production accordingly to acheive this goal. Yeap you better leave it in the ground till it's worth more in what ever currency but the $.
So what happens today will tell which way it swings.
Can't believe the ECB would buckle with some old draft pulled out of no where, desperate times desperate measures I guess, from the dollar camp of course.
I mean if I get a discount on my oil price would I not take it, of course thank you!!! Weaker dollar less Euros for oil, that's simple. I guess everyone is now catching on huh?
And gold's just waiting as the pressure builds. Past 400 to never look back. But in other currencies thats the one to watch.
Good luck to all.
Mas

Boilermaker

(12/04/2003; 07:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112806)

OPEC Price Adjustment

As I noted two weeks ago 11/22, msg 112236, I expect OPEC will be resetting their price target to compensate for a declining US$. I think about a 20% increase to offset a comparable $ decline. Look for $35/bbl or more 1n 2004. It's possible they will announce a target in terms of the US$ Index.
Boilermaker

Belgian

(12/04/2003; 08:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112807)

Oil - euro- dollar -Gold

Russian resources are increasingly going for the euro. A result of the geopoltical encircling by the dollar.
It is Saudi Arabia, as OPEC's swing producer and BIS member, that wants "value" for Arabian oil.
Oil-dollar-euro-Gold are walking closely on each other's heels and want *The $-Unwinding-The �-Transition* to happen orderly. Expect ups and downs into the main evolving trend.

Stock market and interest rates need to support the dollar as to make things go "orderly".

At a certain point, the media will explain to the public what this mysterious "marking to market" of euro-Gold-reserves, is exactly needed (architected) for !

Moegold

(12/04/2003; 08:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112808)

OPEC Price adjustment to sliding dollar

This may be the trigger for China to rethink its currency peg to the dollar. The impact would be substantial.

admin

(12/04/2003; 08:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112809)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 09:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112810)

Spot bouncing at $400+

@ Gandolf:

Did you drop the roo meat on the floor? I think you have to hold it up to make the boyz jump!!!!

:) G'lox

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 10:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112811)

Sorry, Honey, the wedding is off!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/339151.cmssnippit:

Gold Sales Plunge Thanks to Soaring Prices
SWATI BHARADWAJ
TIMES NEWS NETWORK
[ THURSDAY, DECEMBER 04, 2003 01:13:21 PM ]
AHMEDABAD: Zooming gold prices �" hovering over the Rs 6,000 per 10 gms mark has resulted in the demand for the yellow metal plunging by over 75 per cent in the state in spite of the ongoing marriage season.

According to Ahmedabad-based bullion trader Ashok Soni, daily gold trading volumes at the Ahmedabad Bullion Market, which typically averaged 100-150 kgs, had dropped sharply and were currently hovering at around 25-30 kgs. The city is one of the major gold trading centres in the country.

According to estimates available, gold imports in to Mumbai too were down to around 200 kg to 250 kg a day against the normal daily buying levels of about 500 kg.

Jewelry sales too, which were riding high till recently on the back of good demand witnessed during this festive Diwali season, have plummeted by over 50 per cent, according to Nanubhai Soni, president, Sona Chandi Bazaar, Ahmedabad.

Jewellery sales have been constantly falling over the past 15-20 days since gold breached the $390 per ounce mark. The situation has worsened over the past week with hardly any takers for either gold coins, biscuits or jewellery,�? Nanubhai laments.

G'lox: The gold price surge against the dollar is less exhuberant in non-$ economies. Maybe Spot and Spike need some foreign language training??

steady

(12/04/2003; 10:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112812)

how id play or 43 -1

if i had a real fast computer, and could trade on hte shanghi gold exchange heres how id play.

id by 43 10 gram contracts for 430 grams well maybe more but this is the ratio!

id let the pog go up 1.00 in federal reserve notes.
and then id sell 42 10 gram contracts and keep one for free
then id go repete. of course ud have to factor in the transaction costs so u could get everything for free so gold would actually have to appreciate just a lil over 1.00 federal reserve note but thats how id play trade one dollar moves for 10 grams at a time. accumulating gold for free god and then of course after 4 succesful trips id take physical delivery of one fine ounce pluss a lil more of gold all for hitting a few keystrokes at the right time, this way of steady mining for the 21st century without breaking a sweat, getting dirty or even being exposed to the elements may become huge.
10 grams at a time accumulating gold.

Operative

(12/04/2003; 10:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112813)

Snow Says "strong Dollar Policy" Stands Firm

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAHONH2TND.htmlSnow Says "strong Dollar Policy" Stands Firm

Snip:
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary John Snow reiterated America's strong dollar policy on Thursday, staying silent on whether the U.S. government planned to intervene in response to the euro hitting another record high against the dollar this week.
"We have a strong dollar policy. I think the dollar - as other currencies' value - is best set in open, competitive currency markets," Snow said outside the White House after attending a bill-signing ceremony.
Asked whether the U.S. government planned to intervene, Snow replied: "I've told you what I can say about the dollar."

Comment: Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snnoowww. Got my snowboots on I does!

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 10:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112814)

Jobless Claims Rise

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/04/news/economy/jobless/index.htmsnippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Jobless claims rose in the United States last week, the government said Thursday, at a higher level than Wall Street forecasts, as the labor market continued its slow recovery from a long slump.

The Labor Department said 365,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 29, compared with a revised reading of 354,000 in the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 354,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com.

U.S. stock market futures gave up some earlier gains after the report, though they still pointed to a positive opening on Wall Street. Treasury bond prices were little changed.

Goldilox: On we trudge through the jobless recovery. It's interesting that so much more attention is paid to the layoff numbers than the rehire numbers. Maybe TPTB have already given up on rehire opportunities for bonafide bone pile members!!

The labor market has long been one of the weakest aspects of the U.S. economy. Even after the latest recession ended in November 2001, nearly a million jobs were lost during the longest stretch without job creation since World War II.

Great Albino Bat

(12/04/2003; 11:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112815)

Goldilox - India Times knocks gold....

It's a world-wide disease: the hatred (masking fear) of gold.

So the India Times comes in an tells us gold sales are "plunging": not slowing, or moderating, or even falling, but "PLUNGING". Wow! That's really serious, India Times; thanks for giving us this news!

The Indian bridegrooms are going to have to shell out more rupees for their gold, and give their brides a little less gold, in the future - or rather a LOT less gold. Because gold is going up for the foreseeable future.

No need to repeat the reasons.

The GAB

Melting Pot

(12/04/2003; 11:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112817)

(No Subject)

"We have a strong dollar policy. Asked whether the U.S. government planned to intervene, Snow replied: "I've told you what I can say about the dollar."

What is definition of "strong dollar policy" when TPTB fail to define the meaning? Fraud is the first thing that comes to mind. Alas but what could it be? For starters,
"official" treasury gold is valued at $42.222 per oz. That certainly provides illusion the dollar is strong currency. Think of the ramifications if dollar was r/devalued against gold as occurred 1933.

Gee the Snow man got a little short on the "strong dollar" question....."I've told you what I can say about the dollar." Hmmm, "what I can say!" How about that....a politician wearing a muffler for a mouth! Things really are different these days....

Zhisheng

(12/04/2003; 11:32:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112818)

Up into the Close

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Even though gold lost a bit on the day, it was a good finish.

Gandalf the White

(12/04/2003; 11:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112819)

Sir Goldilox ---

Goldilox (12/4/03; 11:18:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112816)
NEM Trading Halted?
===
IF SO -- most likely "NEWS" !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 11:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112820)

NEM Halted

@ Gandolf:

Haven't seen any news yet, but whatever it was, they're back online and rising like they just had a mainline injection of roo meat!

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 11:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112821)

DX - Au

check it out. Immediately after close, the Dx went red and gold clocked up.

misetich

(12/04/2003; 12:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 112822)

States Still in Crisis Despite Brighter Outlook

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=3940303Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Signs of rosier economic times ahead should not obscure the distress many U.S. states, in their worst crises since World War II, are still likely to experience during fiscal 2004, a report warned on Thursday.

"Even if you've got an uptick on the revenue side we really want to emphasize that it's still going to be difficult," said Scott Pattison, director of the National Association of State Budget Officers which prepared the report for the National Governors Association.

"Things went so far down that even (now that they are) going up a bit still things are pretty tough."
................
The national economy has finally shown signs of steaming ahead this year, and the NGA report said states' fiscal 2004 budgets assumed revenue growth of 5.1 percent over 2003 estimates. Most states began fiscal year 2004 on July 1.

But state general fund spending under fiscal 2004 budgets would increase only 0.2 percent compared to growth of 0.6 percent in general fund spending that states reported for fiscal 2003.

Compared to 21 states that reported negative budget growth in fiscal 2003, some 13 states enacted negative growth budgets this year, the report said.

But more than two-thirds of the states budgeted for spending to rise less than 5 percent in fiscal 2004, matching the more than two-thirds of states that reported actual expenditure growth of less than 5 percent in fiscal 2003.
*********************
Misetich

The Treasury and CB governors "pump of confidence" coupled with rah! rah ! newsheadlines is as suspected nothing but hot air.

Retail sales are disappointing
Job claims no are up
Challenger reported ANOTHER 97,000 are being laid off

...and deficits SOARING at all levels

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Great Albino Bat

(12/04/2003; 12:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112823)

Exchange Controls for the Euro? What about the Swiss precedent?

The Swiss had precisely the same problem back in the 70's, when the dollar was plunging and investors were switching into the "Swissie" for protection against devaluating dollars.

The Swiss said their economy was too small, to accept unlimited funds in exchange for Swiss Francs, so - they imposed a tax on Swiss Franc deposits, and as I recall the interest on deposits was very low. So they actively discouraged investment in Swiss Franc deposits. They did not want Swiss Franc holders, with significant amounts of Swissies, all over the world, period. (Did not want reserve currency status.)

Euro exchange controls = same situation, as the GAB sees it. Europe cannot, nor should it, accept unlimited amounts of depreciating dollars buying up its currency; even though Europe is large, still, the impact of unlimited acceptance of dollars would damage it. So, a tax on incoming dollars is not impossible.

Bottom line: Dollar reserve system is nearer its Time-Line End. NO SOLUTIONS for problems arising from this - only huge upheavals which will likely end in blood and tears around the world.

Buy gold today, while you still can.

The GAB

So, the Swiss epxerience may be repeated

Gandalf the White

(12/04/2003; 12:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112824)

TA TA TA -- COMEX paper data and a new "KING of the HILL" -- Sir Casey !!!

12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ02 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25

===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83
===
Ok -- all you procrastinators, you better put on your thinking hats, as the clock is now ticking !
I have let SPOT and SPIKE rest, after breaking the $400. level, and I am about ready to LET THEM LOOSE !
<;-)

Great Albino Bat

(12/04/2003; 12:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112825)

I should add a significant fact:

During that period when the Swiss were charging a tax on deposits, they did accept all the dollars you would wish to send them, free of tax, if they were for PURCHASE OF GOLD.

Belgian: please translate that into the Euro situation.

Europe to tax dollars for deposits in Euros, but "NOT FOR PURCHASE OF GOLD"?

How does that fit into the plan of the upward floating of ECB reserves marked-to-market, if dollars cannot economically go into Euros, but easily flow into gold?

The GAB

Gandalf the White

(12/04/2003; 12:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112826)

WELCOME HOME GAB !!

The Hobbits missed your input !
Did you bring back the YELLOW ?
<;-)

Great Albino Bat

(12/04/2003; 12:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112827)

Slingshot - about the Midas Crusade

You forgot to mention that The Great Albino Bat reconnoitered Hammerton in stealth night flight and brought back news to the Goldbug Camp regarding the weaknesses of the enemy.

The GAB

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/04/2003; 12:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112828)

Show your true color... celebrate the holiday season with gold!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Stumped?
This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold.
The gift that keeps on giving year after year.
And....Order it Online!

Avoid the holiday rush.
Browse leisurely through our large selection
of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and
put the Ho! Ho! Ho! back in your Holiday Season.

Competitive Internet Pricing.
Fast, Free FedEx Delivery on All U.S. Orders over $200.

We know gold!
Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and
old-world service at USAGOLD-Jewelry that you have grown accustomed to
as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!

Omega gold jewelry

Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 14:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112829)

MarketWatch report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC8215D54%2DD5BC%2D4714%2DB5B5%2D2B1AE3021E34%7Dsnippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures fell Thursday for the first time in five sessions, but the losses were slight.

Shares of metals mining companies traded mainly lower, with key indexes for the sector down by as much as 3 percent.

February gold fell by 60 cents to close at $404.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had fallen as much as $4 an ounce Thursday, after gaining $12.40 an ounce over the previous four sessions.

"Some consolidation at these levels is to be expected," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. "But the gold market has been consistently providing the unexpected -- often surging ahead just when everyone is anticipating a correction or consolidation," he said.

Lundin said he wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens at this juncture. "While gold stock investors are worrying whether gold can hold these levels, the metal is hinting that it is ready to move forward once again," he said

G'lox:

This analyst agrees that the boyz just need to catch their breath! To $410 and beyond!

Belgian

(12/04/2003; 14:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 112830)

@Moegold

Not too fast, Sir ! It is impossible to plunge into the euro concept, and leave the dollar system, all at once !!!
China will certainly wait with any drastic move up until it feels that its oil-flow, risks to be threathened (hampered).
Russia is now using some Kyoto pressure as to speed up resources for euro.

The temporary trade-peace (steel tariffs) is a positive for the dollar (not the exch. rate but orderly support) and the EU (unity). China saved the steel problem, for the time being (steel-imports).

US steel will be subsidized if and when it can bring votes.

Point is that with an orderly dollar-decline, the twin deficits will not stop and reverse (grow less at best).

The stability and growth pact will compromise into a bit more growth for less stability as to cross the economic desert(-ification).

Watch and Follow the main trends.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/04/2003; 14:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112831)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold continues to hold above the $400 level. Could this be the new "floor price"? Maybe so. Early today (actually last night for those of us in the US), it was reported that The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels. The report was later denied but as we know, many times denial is a confirmation. Just as US Treasury Secretary stated he supports the "Strong Dollar Policy" after reversing his position once again after stating last month he favored a "weak dollar". Where does all this "competitive currency devaluation" (currency war) leave us? - Headed to a currency without government liability - gold and silver!

I may be gone tomorrow and over the weekend to do some consulting work for a group of investors. Curiously the well heeled and financially independent are looking away from grossly overvalued equities and "dead in the water" bonds and toward hard assets. Due to proprietary considerations I can't go into details of course but just consider this as a "heads up" to what the "smart money" is doing.

Jon H. Warner

Belgian

(12/04/2003; 15:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112832)

@GAB

The dollar is the hot patato passing from hand to hand. More dollars for proportionately less euro. Those dollar holders are being (neutrally) suggested to accumulate Gold as to ensure (hedge) their dollar holdings increasing in number but declining in worth. But we all wish that this happens "orderly". Make your choice between the competing currencies, paper gold and Physical Gold. Make your own bets in the paper gold contract market, operating under the dollar system or the chances of a Freemarket Physical only Gold market under a possible euro-regime, with the marking to market concept as to compensate for the ultimate dollar finale (dollars without reserve status).

See my previous posting about "orderly" transition and dollar decline.

Check Ambrose's (Telegraph) agenda and see through the continued euro (concept) bashing and trashing.

Simplier : Don't rush to the euro ALL AT ONCE ! Don't crash the dollar and its system, NOW ! Go Gold first, while you still can ! Follow the Giants (like Mr. Li).

The 1970 Swiss franc (and currency situation) has nothing to see with the evolving euro (ECB/BIS) of today !

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/04/2003; 15:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 112833)

Page Update!

Cavan Man

(12/04/2003; 15:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 112834)

"Can't accept..".........That's rich isn't it?

US can't accept EU defence plan, says Powell
NATO urged to take greater role in Iraq
AFP, Brussels

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that Washington could not accept EU defence plans which double up with NATO, while welcoming any proposals which boost Europe's military muscle.
Speaking to his NATO counterparts, he recalled that US President George W. Bush was committed to "a mutually-reinforcing relationship between NATO and the EU, grounded in the essential NATO-EU agreements, which underpin it.

NATO is a cold war relic. Let's see, where can we use that war material.....??

Max Rabbitz

(12/04/2003; 16:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112835)

Natural Gas Prices

http://intelligencepress.com/Black Blade, Before you run off for more adventures take a look at the exploding price of natural gas. Up four days running, with the biggest jump today. Winter futures now well over $6. Snow cover has increased rapidly the last few weeks and the early artic blasts came as a surprise to weatherforcasters. Were they counting on global warming? Looks more like an ice age coming. Get that wood chopped before the blizzards hit. Looks like a White Christmas.

Black Blade

(12/04/2003; 16:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112836)

@Max Rabbitz - NatGas

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=556
Andrew Weissman has a 3 part series on NatGas. He and others have been warning of the coming NG supply disaster as Federal lands remain off limits and drilling moratoriums rmain in effect. (see link above)

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(12/04/2003; 16:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112837)

NatGas Article - Part 2

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=557
More of Andrew Weissman's article. (see link)

Black Blade

(12/04/2003; 16:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112838)

NatGas Article - Part 3

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=558
The third part of the article. (see link)

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(12/04/2003; 16:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112839)

Series of NatGas and Energy Articles

http://www.ieca-us.com/
The link above has several articles on the growing energy crisis and rising costs. Of course much of it is discussion by politicians who are all talk and no action. So consistently rising energy costs are going to just be a way of life for most of us.

- Black Blade

Waverider

(12/04/2003; 17:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112840)

Li Ka-shing sets up HK gold trading group

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493709738"After spending millions of dollars developing modern technologies such as third generation telecommunications, Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest tycoon, is returning to a more basic business - gold, the principal store of wealth throughout history. To capitalise on a resurgence of global interest in the metal, Mr Li has set up a wholly owned gold trading company, Loco HK, in Hong Kong, one of Asia's biggest bullion markets."

Waverider: Speaking of where the smart $$ is going....

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 17:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112841)

Dueling NM

Oh Oh, I can see it now. LW and BB - Negro Modelos at ten paces.

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 17:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112842)

Sinclair on Bonds

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=1491&T_ARID=1492&cTID=0&cCat=&cSubCat=snippit:

Good news on the economy did not precipitate a rapid sell-off in bonds as we might have expected. Prices dipped on the release of the news only to work their way back up off the lows as short covering kicked in. The Greenspan Put was back in play.
�
Lately, however, the bond pit has seemingly taken notice of the action in the US dollar. From what I can tell, the thinking is now coming around to the notion that sooner rather than later the Fed is going to have no choice but to raise rates in order to stem the rapid fall in the dollar. With Australia's rate hike and Canada's refusal to cut, it appears these nations are attempting some responsible fiscal policy.

If the Fed refuses to hike, foreign bond holders must surely be cognizant of the fact that their assets are rapidly depreciating at a rate faster than the rate of return on the paper. It seems to me that the Fed has backed itself into a box with no way out.

The Fed cannot hike significantly for fear of derailing the "recovery" since the velocity of money will no doubt fall further as interest rates rise. Yet if the Fed fails to hike, the dollar will continue lower raising the specter of imported inflation from abroad as import prices begin to rise. Also, foreign bond holders may very well begin to unload U. S. paper in favor of Euro backed paper, Aussie backed paper or ABD paper (anything but the dollar).

If these holders unload, bond prices will fall further, raising long term interest rates regardless of Fed action or inaction. As long term interest rates rise, mortgage rates rise along with all those "cheap affordable" ARMs and the consequences related to that should be evident to everyone. Think foreclosures and a drop in consumer spending as rising monthly house payments crimp consumer's available cash.
�
I see nothing but serious trouble on the horizon and the storm clouds are gathering and becoming ominously dark in my estimation.

G'lox:

Nothing much new, just continuing confirmation of the trends.

Waverider

(12/04/2003; 17:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112843)

HK Li Ka-Shing/Gold

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031204/15/3gf3k.html"Tycoon Li Ka-shing has established a gold-trading company and platform called Loco HK, according to a legal notice by gold refiner and retailer RNA Holdings Ltd. Loco HK will be involved in refining, molding, wholesaling, and trading gold bullion and precious metals, as well as bullion financing and creating a gold-trading platform."

Waverider: Please excuse a naive question..but I take it this is a positive step for Gold...or could we be seeing more proxies such as Gold certicates, etc.?

Goldilox - not in this life...I'd never even attempt to take on Black Belt...err..Black Blade, besides, it'd be an honor to serve him an ice-cold NM on a Gold platter! ;o)

Black Blade

(12/04/2003; 17:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112844)

No Negra Modelo Tonight

I'm off to my Kung Fu martial arts class and some sparring. Pain pills and absorbine jr. are more likely than Negra. ;-) Actually I have some reports to work on tonight when I return but tomorrow is another day.

- Black Blade

off to the gym!

Waverider

(12/04/2003; 18:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112845)

Alas, poor Barrick. Hedges can't survive gold's rise

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031204/RREGU04/TPBusiness/TopStories"This week, Barrick officially pushed its hedging program down the mine shaft. Barrick's hedge book had been active for about 20 years, had generated about $2-billion (U.S.) in profit that would have otherwise been denied, and was touted as a sure-fire way to make a buck regardless of the gold price. If that weren't enough, the forward sales contracts were highly flexible. This allowed delivery to be deferred -- for years, if the company chose -- so that immediate production could be sold at the higher spot price. To top it off, Barrick, the anti-Christ as far the unhedged miners were concerned, argued forcibly, although not always convincingly, that hedging did not put downward pressure on prices. Au contraire, Mr. Munk would say; the practice "assisted in the evolution of a healthy gold price."

Why did Barrick lose religion so quickly?....

Waverider: No mention here of the Blanchard suit.

Smeagol

(12/04/2003; 18:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112846)

Passing the royal sscepter to Sir Casey

And the golden Hill-crown, and the royal robe. It was too big and heavy for us. Long Live Sir Casey, King of the Hill!(grin)

------

Finally, I get my coat, hat and walking-stick back!

F.B.

The Invisible Hand

(12/04/2003; 18:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112847)

The Daily Telegraph and FOA � at Belgian

The reason why I called upon FOA is that the bureaucrats of the EU Commission apparently have no grasp of FreeGold.

mikal

(12/04/2003; 18:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112848)

Vietnam

Consumption there and in the developing world has been rising fast and may even surpass that of the "developed" industrialized nations if exporting jobs continues.
A Vietnam news article this week mentioned that reasons for holding gold include- Japan will cease to insure many commercial bank deposits in 2004. Likely it will affect a vast segment of Nippon accountholders if the "ceiling" on state insurance is lowered or eliminated as expected.
Japan's government acting with foresight? It appears so. But really fits into the natural, accelerating flow of world events in metals and commodities, equities, bonds, currencies, credit(debt), etc. As militarized political systems need checks and balances as businesses do to survive, change is inevitable. Leading to less regulation and taxes that can't be paid anyway. It's no mere coincidence that the undulating waves of history are seen in the alternative media and by approaching the current "establishment" status quo with a painter's mind where impressions can represent the future despite missing some brushstrokes. That's the "big picture" they need to assume greater responsibilty for their future, especially if it grows from voter disenchantment with real vs "reported" cost-of-living, standard of living, economic statistics, body counts, or unacceptably compromised government or investment or corporate management.

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 19:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112849)

Ashikaga Nationalized

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EL05Dh01.htmlsnippit:

Ripples from a Japanese bank collapse
By Hussain Khan
TOKYO - The Japanese government's November 30 decision to nationalize the insolvent Ashikaga banking group has surprised investors who had expected a Resona-style bailout - in which shareholders weren't forced to take a haircut for the mess. The move means that Ashikaga shareholders' capital will be wiped out, leaving them with nothing, and the government will take 100 percent of the equity in the regional lender.

Since May 17 when the government decided, in bailing out Japan's fifth largest bank, not to compel shareholders to assume responsibility for the Resona debacle, some foreign hedge funds had picked up regional Japanese bank shares in expectation of similar government relief measures. The lack of relief measures in this case leaves investors in a quandary about future government moves in event of further collapses.

Since the Resona bailout, the Japanese stock market had been in a kind of moral hazard session, in which the stocks of companies in shaky financial shape have thus tended to rise more markedly. The banking sector has particularly outperformed.
This all takes place against a backdrop of national banking disaster, with the system only stabilizing somewhat for the larger banks over the last year. According to the International Monetary Fund, the average ratio of nonperforming assets to capital and reserves, at 65.7 percent in March 2001, rose to 83.4 percent in 2002. Nonperforming loans, estimated at $US355 billion at the start of this year, could well be twice that, or perhaps as much as 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Goldilox:

More "underperforming" loans and more foreclosures - this time by the government. No bailout to avoid a US-style S&L scandal. Add a large bank's shareholders to the infamous bonepile!

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 19:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112850)

China to establish four coastal strategic oil reserves

http://fpeng.peopledaily.com.cn/200312/04/eng20031204_129705.shtmlsnippit:

A high-level personage with the National Development and Reform Commission noted recently that China will build four coastal strategic oil reserves including Dayawan in Guangdong Province. To this, it is learnt from the Guangdong provincial Development and Reform Commission that the first batch of two oil bases have been determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, but the proposed locations, Dayawan and Zhanjiang in Guangdong Province have not yet been approved. The personage with the Guangdong provincial Development and Reform Commission said that they will continue to make efforts in the hope that they can be included into the second batch and will get down to the establishment upon approval.

The first batch determined: Huangdao in Shandong Province and Dalian

Jiang Weixin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out at the International Seminar on Energy Strategy and Reform held by the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) that in order to deal with emergency, China will gradually establish and improve oil reserve system. For this, a national office of oil reserve has been established in the National Development and Reform Commission dedicated to affairs on the oil reserve of the country.
Another high-level personage with the National Development and Reform Commission said that facing China's growing oil consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Office of Oil Reserve are looking for strategic oil reserves, that is to allocate six billion yuan on oil reserves in four domestic ports.

Goldilox: Stocking up in the face of global risks and shortages???

Dollar Bill

(12/04/2003; 20:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112851)

*>*

From your link Sir Black Blade..I wonder..

I foresee another possibility that I believe could heavily impact, if not mitigate, the rising natural gas consumption demand of the newer Combustion Turbine (CT) based Power Generators. When the countries of the world that are awash in natural gas discover, as some already have, that their here-to-fore useless natural gas resource can, by the Fisher Tropshc process, be converted to a easily marketable light distillate fuel, (call it diesel for our purposes,) and be put on a ship and be transported anywhere in the world, this new fuel supply availabiliy will skew the arguments you make about operation beyond the tipping point on natural gas. The vast majority of the newer and more efficient CT's that are producing the demand for the natural gas for power production are either, already capable of, or can be quickly and economically converted to be, just as able to produce the same amount of power with diesel fuel. Since the F-T diesel contains no sulphur, environtimental objections to the use of this fuel disappear, as well. F-T diesel is claimed to be more energy efficient on a "well to tank" or "well to wheel" basis than liquifying the same gas, transporting it to limited destinations, and then regassifying it for transport to the final user via pipeline. If the suppliers of the F-T diesel are smart operators, they will keep the price of delivered diesel below that of the price of delivered natural gas, from whatever source, and the people who are generating power in a competitive market, will naturally select the most cost effective fuel, and I believe that F-T diesel will become a major player in that world. This might even give some of the older gas fired "fuel hogs" as Ms. Keller so aptly describes them, some new life, as they benefit from this newer low cost fuel supply, if it materalizes as I envision it. This assumes, of course, that the diesel can be economically delivered to any given power plant, but a great many are sited at or near to locations where ship or barge transport is possible in our country. Enough, I postulate, to put a dent in the natural gas demand in the future. Time will tell.

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 20:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112852)

The DOW has actually gone NOWHERE this year.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/1204.htmlsnippit:

Until approximately March 2003, the Dow was falling in both [US and AU] currencies with a mini rally here and there. However since March, the US and the Oz dollar parted ways. The Dow appears to be rallying in US dollars, but is doing nothing in OZ dollars. It is stuck in a range and forming a channel. So while the Dow looks very rosy when measured in the terms of the US dollar, the picture is far from rosy when measured in OZ dollars. All it is really doing is adjusting itself due to the high level of inflation. The one huge problem with a channel formation is that it can break to the downside or upside devastatingly fast.

All these rallies are illusionary in nature. The Dow is actually losing value and silently crashing when priced in other currencies. Until it starts to rally in other currencies, Dow 10,000 or even 11,000 becomes meaningless if the US dollar carries on following. After all, when the Argentinean peso collapsed and Gold shot in price over 300%, did any of you care? No, because the net effect was 0. Think of the US dollar as the Argentinean peso of tomorrow and the only way to protect yourself against such blatant and evil inflation is with Gold and Silver bullion.

G'lox:

touquoy

(12/04/2003; 20:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112853)

***420.00***

In 2004 the price of gold will easily see $500 and probably go well beyond this figure.
The reasons are numerous but to name one would be to suggest a falling US exchange rate will ultimately force a large interest rate increase which will precipitate a property crisis in the USA, which will spread around the world, a severe recession will ensue which will hammer down the share market in the USA first, then spread around the world which will cause a stampede to precious metal shares and physical metal.

specie-man

(12/04/2003; 20:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112854)

Oh silver bars, where are you ?

http://www.9news.com/storyfull.aspx?storyid=21672See link.

specie-man

(12/04/2003; 20:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112855)

****** $394.6******

In 2004 you will be able to buy as many US dollars as you like for just 50 milligrams of gold each. So 625 US dollars will cost you one troy ounce of gold.
Because I said so.

Goldilox

(12/04/2003; 20:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112856)

The Bottom of the Barrel

http://www.monbiot.com/dsp_article.cfm?article_id=625Who I am | Introduction | Contact | Careers Advice
"Tell people something they know already and they will thank you for it. Tell them something new and they will hate you for it."
The Age of Consent: a manifesto for a new world order is now published - see the Books section for details.
environment / The Bottom of the Barrel
snippit:

Oil is running out, but no one wants to talk about it.

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 2nd December 2003

The oil industry is buzzing. On Thursday, the government approved the development of the biggest deposit discovered in British territory for at least 10 years. Everywhere we are told that this is a "huge" find, which dispels the idea that North Sea oil is in terminal decline. You begin to recognise how serious the human predicament has become when you discover that this "huge" new field will supply the world with oil for five and a quarter days.

Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.

Oil itself won't disappear, but extracting what remains is becoming ever more difficult and expensive. The discovery of new reserves peaked in the 1960s. Every year, we use four times as much oil as we find. All the big strikes appear to have been made long ago: the 400 million barrels in the new North Sea field would have been considered piffling in the 1970s. Our future supplies depend on the discovery of small new deposits and the better exploitation of big old ones. No one with expertise in the field is in any doubt that the global production of oil will peak before long.

The only question is how long. The most optimistic projections are the ones produced by the US Department of Energy, which claims that this will not take place until 2037. But the US energy information agency has admitted that the government's figures have been fudged: it has based its projections for oil supply on the projections for oil demand, perhaps in order not to sow panic in the financial markets. Other analysts are less sanguine. The petroleum geologist Colin Campbell calculates that global extraction will peak before 2010. In August the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes told New Scientist that he was "99 per cent confident" that the date of maximum global production will be 2004. Even if the optimists are correct, we will be scraping the oil barrel within the lifetimes of most of those who are middle-aged today.

The supply of oil will decline, but global demand will not. Today we will burn 76 million barrels; by 2020 we will be using 112 million barrels a day, after which projected demand accelarates. If supply declines and demand grows, we soon encounter something with which the people of the advanced industrial economies are unfamiliar: shortage. The price of oil will go through the roof.

As the price rises, the sectors which are now almost wholly dependent on crude oil - principally transport and farming - will be forced to contract. Given that climate change caused by burning oil is cooking the planet, this might appear to be a good thing. The problem is that our lives have become hard-wired to the oil economy. Our sprawling suburbs are impossible to service without cars. High oil prices mean high food prices: much of the world's growing population will go hungry. These problems will be exacerbated by the direct connection between the price of oil and the rate of unemployment. The last five recessions in the US were all preceded by a rise in the oil price.

Goldilox:

This sounds awfully sensationalist, but I've encountered these estimates and predictions before. BB, is this guy on target, or blowing smoke up our nether regions? I don't hear any sales pitches for alternatives here, so that motivation isn't obvious.

Clink!

(12/04/2003; 21:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112857)

Those bars @ specie-man

What really caught my eye in the article was :-

If the silver isn't reclaimed in five more years, the state will sell it and invest the money for the owner in the event he or she ever shows up.

The state needs to walk the Trail !

C!

Ten Bears

(12/04/2003; 21:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112858)

Why the dollar price of gold is increasing

http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/damnlies.htm"An expose on the real rate of inflation in America" Adam Hamilton.. worth a re-read.

>>"You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." � George Bernard Shaw

>>"The net result of all the hedonic information I looked at was to understate prices, sometimes dramatically."

>>"By using the mathematical equivalent of tea leaves and goat bones, the BLS statisticians have created a surreal new reality where the "true quality adjusted" price of different goods may be "computed." This practice creates a huge disconnect with reality."

>> "So what is real rate of inflation in the US? It probably approximates growth in total money supply, or M3. Since 1959, M3 has grown at a frightening compound annual rate of 7.9%, while the CPI has "only" indicated 4.4% compound annual inflation"

>>"Even anti-free market and pro-socialism economist John Maynard Keynes recognized the true causes of inflation. He said, "Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency"

Dollar Bill

(12/04/2003; 21:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112859)

(No Subject)

http://pup.princeton.edu/titles/7121.html"World oil production may have peaked in the year 2000. Production in 2001 and 2002 was lower
Several different petroleum geologists are now using Hubbert's methods to analyze world oil production. One oddity may be repeating itself: the center of the best-fitting smooth curve to U.S. production falls around 1974, but the single year of greatest production was 1970. Similarly, the smoothed mathematical peak of world production will probably be in 2004, but 2000 may stand as the highest single year.

As the surplus production capacity is used up, the good news on oil prices is that OPEC will no longer be in charge. The bad news is that nobody will be in charge.

Of the world's 60 oilfields now producing more than 100,000 barrels per day, only two have been discovered in the last 25 years."
So much for the liquified natural gas solution. Temporary.

Why in the world didnt we see this coming and build our society with this in mind? Because fiat encourages stupid behaviours. We are bound to collapse this world economy.
We just make too mamy mistakes to not.
I am only 51, the AARP says I have a 50-50 shot at making it to 84. (once your past 50, the life expectancy is 84 for a man). SO, 34 more years, Am I going to just watch 34 more years of Disney vacations on the credit cards of my neighbors? It really is time to think about where I want to be living. The world will change dramatically way before 34 years go by. Here on the forum we are day to day watching it. Imagine 20 30 years from now.

seagull

(12/04/2003; 21:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112860)

****$398.4****

It is my opinion that the action of the POG in recent weeks has indicated that TPTB are losing the battle to keep it in check. They have held the ball under the water for so long now, that when she blows, it will be explosive to say the least. Yes, we will see $500 in 2004 - and it will be pretty to watch!

Dollar Bill

(12/04/2003; 21:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112861)

*>*

The Fed added $14 Billion in repurchase agreements today Dec 4th 2003. This action upped the repo pool a bit to $35.39 Billion.

The repo hypothesis can best be seen by examining the very few times that the DOW fell below its 30-day moving average in the data set charted from November 2002.

In mid-June 2003 the DOW dipped below its 30-day moving average as a result of the smooth removal of pool funds. This can be seen in the down trend of the repo pool's own 30-day ma. As soon as the DOW dipped about 50 points below its 30-day ma the Fed re-adjusted the repo pool to "catch" the DOW and redirect it on a new upwards trajectory. The Fed then chose to establish a less steep growth line from the very high "Iraq War Rally" phase. The committee of DOW managers, the "Working Group" saw that too steep a rise was not credible so they decided that the freely traded DOW should be altered.
..In mid-August the electrical grid power failure occurred and the DOW again fell but the Fed immediately responded with aggressive repo adds designed to lift the DOW back to its "appropriate" up moving trend line. Thereafter the Fed needed less of the repo fuel to levitate the DOW so it slightly reduced the pool's 30-day moving average level.
..They are "steering" the DOW by carefully adjusting the repo pool aggregate total of un expired funds, mindful that their daily actions should be masked by complex expiration schedules.
..This explains why there is so little volatility in the DOW during wartime, a period of historically turbulent market forces.
..The longer the pattern of government intervention is observed the clearer it becomes.

The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 70% in the last 12 months. It now trades at - 97 times this year's earnings. Yahoo trades at a P/E of 112; Amazon, trades at 93 times earnings.

(12/04/2003; 22:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112862)

Black Blade, GAB

Deductive logic.

If
Euro capped
Yen capped
Yuan capped
Pound likely to follow
Swissie likely to follow

Where will big money go as dollar excesses continue unabated? Why buy capped euros? Capped yen? Capped yuan? Soon to be capped pound and SF?

The Currency Trap!

By a deductive process, there is only one logical alternative not attendant to the whims of the state. All of which makes the news from Europe today on capping the euro that much more interesting for once and future gold owners.

That news may be much bigger in the scheme of things for gold than meets the eye at first glance.

dummyANI,
Buy a gold.....sell a currency?!

Agingfast

(12/04/2003; 23:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112863)

@ Dollar Bill re: Repo Pool Changes

In your opinion, was the Fed's repo pool originated -- and are frequent changes made in the total amount of repos -- for the sole purpose of affecting the level of the US stock market? Or are there other factors that also affect the total amount of repos?

steady

(12/04/2003; 23:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112864)

where my eye sees gold going

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0312/feature3/images/ft_hdr.3.jpgmy numbers where off today that was based on a 400 federal reserve notes for one ounce , and i forgot the currency play in there too, guess ill have to do a take two on that thought to and refine it, but whats interesting is that as gold goes higher that spread on a dollar will increase instead of being 43-1 it will become larger and the silver gold ratio will be divergent going lower both where once forced upon the paralle linear function of paper money now both are diverging away from that line like a falling knife dicing that ole linear paper funtion line into thirds swhoose goes the gold and silver express to... to.. to....... welll the picture in the link says it all.

Gandalf the White

(12/04/2003; 23:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112865)

Pleading to Sir Steady !!

steady (12/4/03; 23:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112864)
where my eye --
===
Sir Steady
MAY I please buy you a few CAPITAL LETTERS and periods...
Do you want to make an old man's eyes useless ?
Thanks
<;-)

Goldendome

(12/04/2003; 23:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112866)

Steady--The ratio, please!

OK, Sir Steady--My Royal English interpretation of your latest is escapin me by a long shot, comprende??

Ok, again, FIAT Dollahs, are backed by what?? Guesses??

Well, now, based upon your cerabellic (Sp) esposulations, I am prepared tomorrow to sell the Gold-- buy the Silver...IS that the Story?? Basically, that as a percentage Silver will outperform Gold? Yee-haw!!!! Hi-Ho Silver Away!!! I am ready buddy, cann't lift it now, but heh, it's a weightin that don't a matter, "He ain't heavy; he's my Silver."

Pass by the Obscurity, please sir, give us the Gold/silver ratio by June 2004-please. Lest, I know how much green to dribble forth into the silver platter...

Waverider

(12/05/2003; 00:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112868)

$$$$$ 399.30 $$$$$

Will we see Spot clear the $500.00 high jump in 2004? Certainly...but not ONLY because Sir Gandalf has been feeding him prime roo meat...We know the US$X is in a three-wave correction (I would say just starting into the third wave) - we're seeing divergence b/t the US$ and POG, not to mention (literally) all the fundamentals that we read here daily in the DMR! Thank you Sir MK for hosting another competition, and thank you Sir Gandalf for your work in making them so much fun! PS - don't think we've seen the last of the $300's quite yet - just my intuition!

Belgian

(12/05/2003; 01:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112869)

@TIH

During many travels, I've encountered many,...many wise men (women) under mango trees or village market places. They know MUCH more about the world as it really is than the millions of richly paid political administrators in their comfortable offices !
Over and out due to PC repairs (bugbears).

Waverider

(12/05/2003; 02:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112870)

Lack Of "Dehedging" Could Hurt Gold In 2004

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031205/15/3ggai.html"...the practice, commonly known as "dehedging", and widely credited with fueling the nearly-three-year-old rally in the bullion market, looks set to take a back seat in 2004, many leading analysts say. Not surprisingly, Australia's ANZ Bank thus says the consensus gold price forecast among analysts for 2004 is now US$365 a troy ounce, about 9% below current levels. The key question for gold going into 2004 is whether, "other things being equal, funds will be willing to retain their long positions knowing that the impact of dehedging on prices is set to fade rapidly," said Frederic Lasserre, chief commodities strategist with Societe Generale.

While gold may face pressure in 2004 if speculative support dwindles, in the case of silver, the lack of consumer demand could keep prices in check, analysts said. There is a potentially ominous sign for the part-precious, part-industrial metal."

Waverider: Notice that these articles are published on a Friday after a nice run in the PM's - it's part of the psychological lead-in for the big hit - I wouldn't be suprised to see TPTB push POG back to the low $390's today.

Waverider

(12/05/2003; 02:59:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112871)

Chinese residents welcome gold trade

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-12/05/content_287746.htm"A resident in Chengdu city of southwestern Sichuan province bought five ounces of gold this week in the Chengdu branch of the Merchants Bank of China at the price of 16,647.5 yuan (US$2,000), becoming the first investor to try physical gold trade in China. Chinese people have traditionally had the tradition of hoarding gold as a way of securing savings against disasters, natural or man-made. Shanghai was the largest gold trade center in the Far East in the 1930s and 1940s. But gold trade was abolished with the founding of new China in 1949. In the past five decades, nevertheless, the gold market was under a government monopoly with gold consumption focused on jewelry or industrial use in China. Total gold consumption is at a low level as compared with other nations in the world. In 2002, Per-capita gold consumption in China was only 0.16 grams, far lower than 1.42 grams in the United States and the world's average of 0.7 grams.

A recent questionnaire by the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center in 10 major cities in China showed 70 per cent of respondents said that they would invest in the gold trade if they had money and over 20 percent of securities investors would transfer part of their capital to gold trade. Experts predicted that nearly 7.5 million investors will try the gold trade while continuing the securities trade in the future. Calculating that each one will invest 10,000 yuan (about US$1,200) of capital, the trade will attract 75 billion yuan (some US$9 billion) of funds in total."

Black Blade

(12/05/2003; 04:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112872)

Barrick Gold's Plight!

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/temp/AppelExcerpt.pdf
Snippit:

When I delved into Barrick's most recent financial statement I may have found the answer. Their hedge book is already saddled with $1.213 billion of accumulated unrealized losses due to the rising gold price. This figure is from their September 30, 2003 quarterly report, and is based upon a gold price of $385. With gold presently trading at $403 this figure is now about $1240 billion. Next, according to their report there is an onerous provision in all of their master trading agreements that their growing unrealized hedging losses are causing to seriously pressure them. It is that, "Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth of at least $US2 billion-currently it is US$3.4 billion" (remember, this assumes only a $1.213 billion unrealized loss). If Barrick violates this ever-present clause they may be forced to either somehow repay the gold that they owe or to suffer other consequences.

By Barrick's own account on September 30, their consolidated net worth was US$3.4 billion. As of December 4, it has likely been reduced to approach $3.12 billion, by their unrealized hedge losses alone. Further, if gold continues to rise in price, and to Barrick's detriment enters a period of sharp price appreciation, Barrick may find itself with its back against the proverbial "wall". In this event, they may witness their approximate $1.12 billion cushion ($3.12 billion less the $2 billion minimum requirement) quickly evaporate and may come face to face with their counter-parties who may demand the immediate repayment of their gold. I believe that this is the likely reason for the recent frequent statements emanating from the company. They are afraid that their hedge book might explode in their faces! Even their 87 million ounces of gold in the ground won't satisfy their bankers! Barrick won't be capable of producing this gold fast enough as their bankers may demand immediate, physical gold!

Black Blade: As I suspected and discussed in the past. I became rather unpopular at Mineweb.com for taking this position a couple of years ago. Ah, vindication at last!

Socrates964

(12/05/2003; 05:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112873)

Black Blade

Have I understood you correctly here?

You seem to be suggesting that an $18 move in the gold price has caused $3.4-3.12bn = $280m of hedge book losses. (Although you also suggest that it's only $40m).

Questions:

Which is the right figure?

Can we extrapolate in linear fashion from this? - If so, the obvious inference is that every $1 move in POG pushes their hedge book $15 into the red, but that it doesn't actually push net worth below the $2bn mark until $480. Is my reasoning correct?

Goldilox

(12/05/2003; 05:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112874)

China Spot Gold Ends Slightly Up On Speculative Buying

http://www.goldnewsweekly.com/headlines.asp?id=i4413319938934767680Shanghai, Dec. 5 (Dow Jones) - Spot gold traded on the Shanghai Gold
Exchange closed slightly higher Friday, pushed up by speculative buying
shortly before the market closed.
For most of the day, both grades of bullion were confined in tight ranges
as international spot gold dangled at the either side of $402 a troy ounce
during Asian trading hours.
The benchmark gold bullion of 99.95% purity ended at 106.95 yuan
($1=CNY8.28) a gram, or $401.75/oz, up CNY0.02/g from Thursday's CNY106.93/g.
Gold bullion of 99.99% purity ended at CNY107.46/g, or $403.67/oz, up
CNY0.19/g from Thursday's CNY107.27/g.
Total turnover rose to 1,680 kilograms from 1,609 kg Thursday.
A trader at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China in Shanghai attributed
gold's uneventful trade both overseas and in Shanghai to the U.S. dollar's
quiet performance in the currency market.
Gold and dollar movements are closely tied, via a negative correlation.
China's gold market is off-limits to foreign investors.
The following are the closing prices and trading volume on the Shanghai
Gold Exchange:
(Units are in Chinese yuan per gram.)

High Low Close Change From Turnover Change From
Prev. Day in Kg Prev. Day in Kg
Au99.95 106.95 106.70 106.95 +0.02 1,558 +61
Au99.99 107.50 107.00 107.46 +0.19 122 +10

Total Turnover: 1,680 kg, or 179.4 million yuan

Socrates964

(12/05/2003; 05:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112875)

Oops!

Should read:

If so, the obvious inference is that every $1 move in POG pushes their hedge book $15 MILLION into the red, but that it doesn't actually push net worth below the $2bn mark until $480.

makcumka

(12/05/2003; 06:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112876)

*****402.3*****

The POG will cross the $500 in 2004. Reasons? Have you read your latest "News ans Views"? It's all in there. Thanks, CPM.

Dollar Bill

(12/05/2003; 06:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112877)

*>*

And Wednesday from Bloomberg, quoting ECB council member Ernst Welteke: "On the impact if the euro climbed to $1.20 or $1.25: �At some stage companies that export to the dollar region can of course reach a pain threshold. But only a seventh of German exports go to this region. �A lot of companies say that we have hedged ourselves for the time being through swaps. At the moment, the euro's exchange rate is moving in a neutral range. An abrupt drop in the dollar could of course have consequences for the global economy and therefore for us as well. I don't think that will happen.�"

He does not think that will happen. He must have confidence in the orchestration involving global financial players.

That comment is why I dont think gold will hit 500$ this year.
****397****

Dollar Bill

(12/05/2003; 07:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112878)

*>*............

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=353342&cftoken=%2099894749πd=2878Sir Ageing Fast, I regret to say I again forgot the qoute marks, leaving an impression that the comments were mine.
The implication of the author was that it did indeed play the role of market guidance..effectively.
This link will put you to the comments, and just a short ways down, will bring you to the graph.
Quite revealing.

Jing Zu

(12/05/2003; 08:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112879)

The $ dropping!

Wow! Just dropped off the chart! Something is going on?

Jing Zu

(12/05/2003; 08:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112880)

Our Gold is Soaring!

And of course in the trying times we sometimes make the correct decision to have our gold in our hands....

Going up, up, up!!!

Agingfast

(12/05/2003; 09:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112881)

Dollar Bill re: Repo Pool Conspiracy Theory

Thanks for the link. However, the Fed's repo pool has been around a long, long time and there are many factors that influence the frequent changes in the total amount of repos - and I don't believe that propping up the US stock market is one of them. In commenting on the use of repos my 1965 edition (yeah, I was around back then) of "The Federal Reserve System, Purposes and Functions" caries the following comment on page 191: "The Federal Reserve System makes repurchase arrangements available in periods of temporary credit stringency to help meet market needs for reserve funds and for credit when dealer inventories of Government securities are unusually large." So, with respect to that last item, you can expect frequent, large, upward surges in repos as our profligate federal government continues to flood the market with huge new debt offerings. Dealers temporarily sell some of their existing securities to the Fed to raise funds to help pay for the new issues until they can unload them on the salivating public.

misetich

(12/05/2003; 09:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112882)

MAHENDRA -

www.mahendraprophecy.comSnip:
Mon, 1 Dec 2003 08:05:28 -0500

Dear Friends,

During the last week, gold crossed the $400 mark once again but settled just below it. Metal stocks were going up like there will be no tomorrow. I am happy to see the current bull run in gold stocks and gold prices because this is what I saw a way back. It is like the fulfilment of a dream. But do not take me wrongly; fulfilment does not mean that the bull-run is over.

GOLD:

Currently, gold is sitting at $398, just bordering $400 and not crossing over to the other side. The feeling of gold traders is why the gold is not quickly jumping over to the other side. The worry for the short traders and hedgers is why the gold is not quickly coming down.

However, gold will not move in the way that investors/buyers or hedgers think: Gold will move where Jupiter takes it.

Currently, I see Jupiter holding the hand of a baby (gold). The baby is crawling and learning how to walk. Jupiter will surely take the baby to the other side (400 level) and will not let go of the baby's hand. Jupiter wants to train the baby and therefore will not leave him because he is still young.

Mahendra Sharma

********************
Misetich

In view of today's uptick in Gold - Kudos go to MAHENDRA

His track record has been very very good

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox

(12/05/2003; 09:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112883)

Near New Highs

$406.5 - Anyone notice we're nearing new highs? More roo meat!

admin

(12/05/2003; 09:30:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112884)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Hey, Gandalf -- wizard of wizards: Check out the ancient ratios between various items discussed under 'Notable & Quotable'. Useful, important trading information implied therein.

Goldilox

(12/05/2003; 09:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112885)

Kudos

@ Misitech:

The real kudos go to the believers who are buying and pushing the price up. Like Sinclair says, "Put your money where your mouth is!"

CoBra(too)

(12/05/2003; 10:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112886)

Something's Got to Give!

... The last military global superpower - the US - is losing its economic base, fast. For how long can a superpower last without the means to support its superpower status?

How should I know? It took the Roman Empire several centuries to cave in. In todays case it may happen a lot faster and that's what is really scary. How to deal with a cornered beast, even if decaying. It's still a very dangerous and possibly lethal creature. A creature, still capable of wreaking havoc among their would be slayers - the rest of the world. The rest of the world, feeling the US dollar seignorage was an obstacle for too long - an obstacle, which has cost too much and for too long for all other would be competitors.

The last few years have proven beyond doubt, that the US $ hegemonial reserve status has been over(t)ly abused and added to the pain of too many. Repercussions will be effected to curb its influence and dominance ... and it has already started.

The upheavals to overcome an "archaic" and unfair system will be reverberate throughout the globe and will not be serene.

How to protect yourself from the fallout will be crucial not only to your financial survival - and the best insurance you can have will again be to hold to the only true value proven by history - GOLD! cb2

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 10:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112887)

Goldilox: China "Spot Gold"...

The Chinese are inveterate gamblers, they just love gambling. Check out Las Vegas for this.

This "Spot Gold" in Shanghai appears to be nothing of the sort. The only concern of "Spot Gold" in Shanghai is to make a profit on the price, and has nothing at all to do with taking home some gold, which is the essential point of gold: to OWN IT.

In other words, Shanghai Exchange is only providing a new gambling game, this one whether or not gold goes up or down in price. You don't get to take the gold home, any more than you get to take the winning horse home from the race track.

Black Blade or MK or Randy: Correct me if I am wrong on this. It is important for all of us to understand the implications of gold trading in Shanghai. I understand it is only paper trading, not "take home rights"!

The GAB

steady

(12/05/2003; 10:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112888)

bummer! no 43-1

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0312/feature3/images/zm_zoomin.3.2.jpgChina's gold market is off-limits to foreign investors.

so i guess ill have to wait till 2008 when i go to the olympics, to find me a mainland china citizen who will let me use there identity to trade on the shangi exchange, in return for some of the golden profits.

darnit.

oh my god ...steady typed a post with no errors, nice capital letters and even punctuation marks, yes in deed we sure do live in changig times........hahahahahahaaaaaaa

gold: the black hole of the financial world.

see link!

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 10:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112889)

WOWSERS SIR M. K. !!

" 100 camels, 200 cows, 1,000 sheep, 200 silk dresses, 1,000 gold coins or 10,000 silver coins. "
===
I think that I would be taking the 10K silver coins, IF Sir Rich does not beat me to them !
<;-}
PS: I now see that you have a little competition in China.
Mr. Li is trying to catch up with you !
PSS: JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 10:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112890)

SORRY Sir GAB !!

The Shanghai Exchange deals in the REAL THING !!!!
<;-)

seeker

(12/05/2003; 10:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112891)

GOLD TO TOP $450 SAYS GOLDMAN SACHS

From Bloomberg
THE PRICE OF GOLD SURGING THIS
YEAR TO A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH.
AND THE GAINS MAY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT YEAR AS WELL.
ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS, THE
PRICE OF GOLD COULD TOP $450 AN
OUNCE.
A LEVEL WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE
1988.
AND GOLDMAN SAYS INVESTORS
COULD SEE PRICES THAT HIGH
WITHIN A YEAR.
THE FIRM ALSO SAYS THAT THE
WEAKER DOLLAR AND WORRIES ABOUT
THE U.S. BUDGET AND TRADE
DEFICITS ARE BOOSTING THE
ATTRACTION OF GOLD AS A HAVEN.
AND ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS,
GOLD PRICES ARE ALSO BEING
HELPED BY THE REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF METAL SOLD BY
PRODUCERS BEFORE IT IS ACTUALLY
MINED.

.....nuf said.

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 10:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112892)

Waverider: the "Dehedging" Threat....you quoted earlier

This story on the the implications of de-hedging for a weakening in the gold price in 2004, carried by Dow Jones Newswires, is another attempt at mind manipulation anti-gold.

Hedging was not going to keep the price of gold down forever. The consequences were predicted when it was being done, mindlessly, by the world's mining industry.

Now the consequences are here. The dehedging is taking place, and for some mines it may be an impossible task: say Barrick, in deep doo-doo.

It's not hedging or dehedging that drives the long-run price of gold, nor will these practices destroy the role of GOLD as the only vehicle for the preservation of savings (along with silver, perhaps).

It's the vast, unprecedented expansion of credit and trash money available all around the world, STUPID!

Agreed, these silly stories can set the tone for another useless attempt to throw gold back.

Now if the GAB was on the other side, he would recommend using the available gold ammo to defend the $430/oz "trench", and not waste ammo on defending $400 any longer. A fall-back, in other words.

Let's wait and see.

The GAB

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 10:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112893)

It's the author of the "Dehedging Threat" article I am calling

"STUPID!"

Not Waverider, of course.

GAB

steady

(12/05/2003; 10:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112894)

ouch, can i sue for whiplash.

see thats what irks me, we here all this promotion carnival barking about the impact of the china exchange yet no one has said how it operates or how to trade it or well i guess for me it dont matter anymore as im barred from entering that marketplace due to my place of birth on this planet. Typical surface explanations about a market that may or may not have an impact upon gold. i wish i knew .

can cpm get me a monkey bar? ya kow the ones being sold in china i'd realy like one. guess ill have to call ya up and see

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 10:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112895)

Gandalf the White: Shanghai Exchange deals in "real thing"

No one would be happier to be wrong in this case than the GAB, Sir Gandalf.

Are you quite sure? Do you by any chance have a link to the hard facts?

The GAB read an article that expressed a different sense: clearly, paper gold trading.

The GAB

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 10:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112896)

steady, bingo!!

"Gold, the black hole of the financial world." (Steady)

Very good! Memorable phrase, Sir!

The GAB

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/05/2003; 10:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112897)

Celebrate the Season with GOLD!!!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Stumped?
This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold.
The gift that keeps on giving year after year.
And....Order it Online!

Avoid the holiday rush.
Browse leisurely through our large selection
of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and
put the Ho! Ho! Ho! back in your Holiday Season.

Competitive Internet Pricing.
Fast, Free FedEx Delivery on All U.S. Orders over $200.

We know gold!
Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and
old-world service at USAGOLD-Jewelry that you have grown accustomed to
as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!

Omega gold jewelry

Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 11:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112898)

As you requested Sir GAB ! <;-)

http://www.sge.sh/web/show_col.asp?cid=20Sir GAB
I believer that the above LINK should convince you of the TRUTH! This is the English version !
IF you have additional doubts --- please see the MAIN page at this LINK
http://www.sge.sh/redirect.asp?locale=1033
My contact in HK (Sir Felix the Cat) provided me the opportunity to become a registered member of the SGE when it started, BUT I failed to take advantage then --- MAYBE you and I should think about this ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 11:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112899)

MORE info for Sir GAB !

Categories of Membership
1. Financial membership: conduct its own business or act as agent and other approved business;
2. General membership: conduct its own business or act as agent;
3. Principal membership: conduct its own self business.

Relative Charges
Membership Fee & Annual Fee:
SGE draws up relevant membership fee and annual fee in accordance with distinct member categories, rights and obligation: 1. financial membership: membership fee is RMB800,000yuan and annual fee is RMB50,000yuan; 2. general membership: membership fee is RMB500,000yuan and annual fee is RMB40,000yuan; 3. self-managing membership: membership fee is RMB300,000yuan, annual fee is RMB30,000yuan.

Transaction Procedure Fee
Transaction Procedure fee of SGE is set temporarily 0.06%.
Transportation Fee and Stock Fee: Related charges (including transportation fee and insurance fee, etc.) of transportation of real gold under the delivery application of members is taken based on volume of real delivery gold. In addition, assigned warehouses charge fees under the regulations of SGE.

Trading Manner
During the early period of the operation of SGE, its transaction tool is spot transaction. SGE follows the principle of "price priority, time priority" in making deal and employs the transaction manner of free quotation, computer matching, centralized settlement and delivery. In addition, its members can choose either trade on the spot or distant trade.

Species and Price
SGE employs normalized transaction and the gold used for transaction should meet the standard regulated by SGE. At present stage, SGE conducts transaction of the following two types: Au99.99 and Au99.95. The standard weights of bullion, gold bar and gold coin are 50gram, 100gram, 1 kilogram and 3 kilogram respectively. The unit of quotation is RMB yuan/gram. The smallest transaction unit of bullion is kilogram and the fewest delivery amount is 6 kilograms.
===
<;-)

Zhisheng

(12/05/2003; 11:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112900)

Up into the Close.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Good ending to the week: high for the week and the year at $405.80. February futures at $407.30.

Great Albino Bat

(12/05/2003; 11:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112901)

Sir Gandalf: re Shanghai Gold Exchange

I stand corrected, and happy to acknowledge my error.

This is indeed very positive for gold.

The close into a multi-year high, for the week end, appears to me to indicate that the Gold Cartel is either giving up resistance to higher prices, or waiting for the market sentiment to express the idea that "gold has gotten ahead of itself and is overbought", at which time they will once again throw all available weight against further rises.

In any case, the Cartel has lost the war, and resistance to higher prices will only be rearguard actions.

Awesome!

The GAB

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/05/2003; 12:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112902)

Hard assets... Easy access!! Delivered to your door.

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

TownCrier

(12/05/2003; 12:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112903)

Everything you ever wanted to know about USAGOLD but were afraid to ask...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.htmlMeeting the needs of our clientele for 30 years. Friendly, knowledgeable service.

R.

Goldilox

(12/05/2003; 13:03:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112904)

Santa Claus rally

Now I know why they call it a "Santa Claus rally". All the stock quotes are in RED!!!

. . .with some gold stocks dressed in green for Christmas color effect!

:>) Goldilox

Cavan Man

(12/05/2003; 13:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112905)

POG @ $406.77

What's not to like?

Goldilox

(12/05/2003; 13:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112906)

Dx 89.08

Unless the BOJ or PPT jump to rescue, the Dx is in a freefall to 88+.

Waverider

(12/05/2003; 13:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112908)

GAB

I knew you meant the author of the article, but thank you for the clarification...those were my thoughts too as I read it in the wee hours of the morning. It really is amazing that any author who esteems to even a modicum of credibility would print that without giving due consideration to all variables affecting the Gold market - mind you, they do have an agenda! I honestly thought that Gold would take a hit today (Friday after a run-up) but am pleasantly suprised to see how wrong my inutuition was! Cheers GAB and it's nice to see you back here again.

Waverider

Rimh

(12/05/2003; 13:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112909)

****** 413.0 ******

Yes the price of gold will surpass $500 in 2004 as the US deficits continue to grow, the US dollar's value will continue to shrink, US citizens will catch on that gold is a great alternative to preserve wealth and their neighbors around the globe will continue to accumulate gold as well. The smart money has already spoken, and the message is getting out: get gold now while its still dirt cheap!

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 14:03:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112910)

TA TA TA --- The NEW "KING OF THE HILL" is Sir Mudr !!!!

COMEX data for FRIDAY 12/5/03 This is the last data before entry DEADLINE !NOW everyone can make their PROGNOSTICATIONS !!
<;-)
===
12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25

12/5/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $406.8 low $400.0 SETTLE $406.4
CHANGE $3.1 Vol = 304 Yesterday's OI = 2,456

===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83

12/5/03 GCD04 (Feb �04) HIGH $407.5 low $400.0 SETTLE $407.3
CHANGE $3.1 Vol 42,589 Yesterday's OI = 193.726 DTE = 82
===
<;-)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/05/2003; 14:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112912)

Page Update!

Black Blade

(12/05/2003; 14:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112913)

Socrates964 - usagold.com msg#: 112873

I only quoted the article. However, in 2000 we found out that at an average of $340 an ounce gold, Barrick's hedgebook was near "break even". Now with gold at $406 an ounce with about 16 million ounces sold forward, the company is on the brink of failure should gold rise much further because the banks will likely call in for a return of their gold. It ain't coming back anytime soon and this is a secular (not cyclical) bull market that will run for several years. No wonder hedgebook architect and former CEO Randall Oliphant got his walking papers. There are a lot of scared managers at Barrick and for good reason.

- Black Blade

contrarian

(12/05/2003; 14:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112914)

****410.2****

I think the game's changes and the contrived two-month cycle is dead--gold is converting into currency.

Jing Zu

(12/05/2003; 15:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112915)

What a day!

Hey ya'll,

Thanks for being here! What a wonderful investment. I just pulled out an invoice from March of 2002 that showed I paid $290/oz for some of those there African Deer looking coins.. Wow! $406.76/oz

All because of my decisions and CPM being there.. My wife and I have more security against these desperate and (probably already here) trying times..

Thank you all....

..... the land of Havilah, where there is gold. And the gold of that land is good:..... Gen.2:11&12 KJV

Not to get religious on anyone here. I just thought it to be an appropriate and interesting verse..You see, this land was next to (if not in) the Garden of Eden, so it says�. I hope that no one is troubled by this I will stop now. I sure would like to know where that place is so that maybe they could start looking for some more "good" gold for me to buy with this fiat that hurts me to hold. But of course I would purchase it through:

"USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals"
Safe Harbor for the Gold INVESTOR since 1973

Thanks, CPM for this Forum!

Great Day for Gold!.

Magister Aurelius

(12/05/2003; 15:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112916)

*****$408.3*****

Don't take it to the bank! Gold will smash the $500 level in 2004. The United States has to deal with the enormous deficits and hideously low savings among citizens. Interest rates will have to be slowly ratcheted up by the Fed to cover the bond market and prevent general financial panic. Gold will rise in this scenario, but not by enormous swings, but by a gentle undulation steadily upward. Geopolitical tensions will also contribute to a higher gold price. Look for China to accumulate gold and play a neutrality stance while it builds more relationships with the rest of Asia. This will be in response to a shift in tensions. Lacking a nuclear bomb in Iran, the Middle East will settle to a low simmer as Iraq stabilizes (Just take a look at the Oxford University poll recently done of Iraqi citizens). Trade and political differences will split the United States and Europe. The two blocs will be the United States and a few allies including Britain, and the other will be the Franco-German alliance that may even include Russia. A trade war is looming, followed by a possible shooting war between the two blocs. Get gold and cover your assets.

Jing Zu

(12/05/2003; 15:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112917)

****407.70*****

****************

Will gold reach $500/oz in 2004, and why?

Gold will for sure make it to $500/oz next year. I believe higher. maybe I am a little optimistic? The reason stands in the fact that you cannot keep the HM (heavenly metal) down�Its been here from the beginning and will obviously be here till the end.

Of course I would like to see the price of an ounce of gold @ $500.00 by this years end. The way the FR Notes are falling, it just could happen. This would be an interesting way to end the year�

Toolie

(12/05/2003; 15:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112918)

Finally, a successful business model for US manufacturing

http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2003/12/04/rtr1169835.html Snip:DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. said Thursday it would spend $240 million to consolidate North American production of its Ford Focus car in Michigan, transferring work from a Mexican plant.
.....
State officials said Ford would eventually spend a total of $583 million at the Focus plant and the adjacent Michigan Truck factory that produces sport utility vehicles. The state gave Ford $48.8 million in tax breaks in return for the plant spending.

Comment: Finally, a successful business model for US manufacturing. Engineer your product in Europe. Lobby the federal government for changes in Medicare that ease the burden of your pension fund & accelerated depreciation for capitol equipment. Import cut-rate Engineers from India to do product modifications for the American market. Lobby for the removal of steel tariffs. Avail yourself of the starvation prices that equipment makers now offer & the spiraling $ exchange rates. Then demand a 9% tax rebate from the state for retooling. As long as the big 3 (2?) can keep this confluence of trends in place, there is no stopping a powerful manufacturing rebound (I'm being sarcastic here).

The above said, this news is very welcome to those of us that put equipment in these plants. DCX is also building an engine plant locally. It has been a long dry-spell. From my point of view, employment numbers (at least locally) will show improvement by spring. Gold may stop for a breath then, as all the "timed for the election" stimulus kicks in. $500 by next year? You bet, but at this point, I expect a spring/summer pause. Gold money in �08? Could be, if I'm not mistaken there are no capitol gains taxes that year.

CoBra(too)

(12/05/2003; 15:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112919)

New Closing High for Spot at 406!

For the move that is, and that's an 8 year high!

Pretty impressive action this week as every "BOP" was countered by physical buying. Bodes well for the future as the advance was very orderly and if I may call it "selfcorrecting"!

Could get interesting from here on out, as potentially the advance may take up some steam.

Have a great weekend all - cb2

PS: @ MK - One Ski Ralhves is back in an impressive way on "Birds of Prey"! Hurray!

Lothar of the Hill People

(12/05/2003; 15:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112920)

**** $404.6 ******

Only the lure of a golden reward lures Lothar to the Great Hall from the safety and serenity of the hidden ancestrial home of the Hill People.

Lothar sought the wisdom of many soothsayers among the Hill people. But alas, of SPOT in 2004 there is only confusion. Even the holiest oracle, the entrails of the Great Albino bat, reveals twists and turns and uncertainly until a glimmer at the end.

Lothar can only conclude that the path of SPOT in the early year will be convolved and uncertain, that $500 will be fleetingly brushed but not firmly grasped until near the end.

I am Lothar of the Hill People.

Fare ye well.

Goldendome

(12/05/2003; 16:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112921)

Iraq debt a concern for the U.S. !!!

You folks notice today?...that the Commander and Chief of the Save the Whales campaign, located in Crawford, Texas,'sent a whale from the past (former Treasury Sec. under George the First, James Baker) to Iraq, for to restructure Iraqee debt. To paraphrase George the Second's words: The Iraquee people should not have their futures mortgaged by their current debt accumulated under past malfeasing rulers!!

Hey George, how 'bout a little bit of that debt compassion for we poor souls living in this country- of the accumulating debts of past and current malfeasors?? Perhaps you-all are not that concerned about us-all having to repay it? Just keep printin up those Rooseyvelt Dollahs by the trillions and woe-la, the debt she a disapperin in the confitti, ehh?

---Oouhh, she a cold one; We all goin suffer now!!!

Time For GOLD

(12/05/2003; 16:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112922)

**** $415.9 ******

A few of the many reasons gold will surpass $500 in 2004:
-Falling US Dollar exacerbated by twin (Trade / Federal) deficits
-Real rate of interest has been near zero for several years
-Money supply has increased over 100% the past 10 years
-Commodity bull market fueld by expanding Asian / world economies
-Rising energy prices (oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline)
-Reversal of miner hedges (most recently Barrick), end of gold leasing, diminshing supply
-Gold production costs rising in local currencies / selling in US dollars resuting in sharply declining profits (i.e., South Africa, etc.) and closure of marginal profit producing mines
-There has been a sharp increase of savings throughout Asia held in gold
-Euro currency as well as currencies of commodity exporting nations (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada) more attractive than USDollar

Survivor

(12/05/2003; 16:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112923)

Paper Documentation of Gold Purchases

A few days ago I made the comment that that the only paper I've encountered in a gold transaction was the fiat used for the trade.

But, I notice occasional references to receipts and other documentation by other members of this round table.

I'm curious to know if there are states and/or countries that require paper documentation of physical gold trades. Perhaps my paper-free experience has been a happy coincidence of the places I happened to have lived.

(I realize that any transaction in the USA over $10,000 requires documentation. Where USA residents are concerned, this question applies only to trades of less than $10,000.)

Thanks in advance for any replies.

A golden Weekend to all.

- Survivor

Ag Mountain

(12/05/2003; 17:35:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112924)

Survivor, gold documents

Have you ever bought $5,000 of lumber at the lumberyard? Or even just $50?

It's hard to get wood without paper. Invoices, receipts, billing and whatnot. Frankly, having the bills are convenient for my records, and why should gold be any different?

Boilermaker

(12/05/2003; 17:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112925)

Stephen Roach- Morgan Stanley

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlStephen Roach's commentary linked above was seen at Le Metropole Cafe. He is one of the few mainstream economists who sees the big picture and knows that a big change is coming. Steve doesn't talk about gold but he clearly describes the huge imbalances that exist and must be corrected. He always seems to stop short of the obvious defensive measures that are suggested by his analysis.

TGIF and bottoms up!

Boilermaker

balzac

(12/05/2003; 17:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112926)

CONTEST

My Guess

*****410.50*****

MY reason: The American public has awakened to the
best investment of the decade and the scramble is beginning.

Balzac

Toolie

(12/05/2003; 18:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112927)

*****$408.8*****

We will see $500 gold in 2004, provided that we don't blink. Loss of confidence in the dollar at home and abroad is the culprit. The increase in price inflation becomes undeniable by June. In September, when the fed introduces "scratch and win" dollars, in an effort to entice the Asians to scratch away our debt, this loss of confidence causes India, S. Africa & Brazil to introduce a bimetallic backed currency.

Gandalf the White

(12/05/2003; 18:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112928)

TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- UPDATE !!

POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 18:30 (Denver time) FRIDAY 12/5/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
KEEP those Guesses coming !
<;-)

slingshot

(12/05/2003; 19:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112929)

Great Albino Bat

Request second flyover of Hammerton on Sunday.;0)

TIA.
Slingshot----------<>

steady

(12/05/2003; 19:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 112930)

how i did it.

http://www.rense.com/submissions/goldfinger1.jpgjust in case you where wondering, this is how i took the pictures i posted, notice how gold is incorporated into the craft, helps neutralized the black hole effect when coming and going, in fact it is the prefered vehicle used in the of transporting thoughts and ideas from one side to the other and not only that but many ecoites use it to for there sorjunes to uransus and back. breif As it can go back and forth between the fiat world and the new non fiat world developing behind the black holes, the craft can transport over 1000 400 oz bars at a time over to the good side. Where an everincreasing number of ideas are emerging from and unfettering the minds of this planet to understand the simple and simpistic concept of fiat script vs honest money, gold and silver. to understand a simple ratio, can the masses of this planet do it? Can they? Hu thats what im asking or will they be allowed to before its to late, to get any significant amount before paying up more for what they dont all ready not have.
anyone want a spin......

Toolie

(12/05/2003; 19:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112931)

Steady

Whoever is driving that thing is just asking to be jacked.

Toolie

(12/05/2003; 19:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112932)

Cancun marked the end of dollar-reserve expansion.

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20031205-115054-1264r.htm

Snip: SAO PAULO, Brazil, Dec. 5 (UPI) -- So far, it looks like Brazil's president is getting along swimmingly in the Middle East, even if it means sinking future ties with the United States.
On a seemingly innocuous note, with two countries down on his five-nation Middle East tour, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has signed lightweight accords with Syria and Lebanon that deal with tourism and trade and other issues. But that doesn't even begin to measure his real effect.
Lula's aspirations for improving ties between the Middle East and Brazil, as well as all of South America, were manifest in suggesting the two regions hold a leaders' summit sometime next year to discuss their collective economic futures.
�..

Lula appears willing to risk U.S. ire during his trip in hopes of establishing alternate trade ties with more willing partners like Syria and Lebanon, the latest stop on the Brazilian leader's tour. Next it's on to the United Arab Emirates, then Egypt, where he will also meet with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, sure to score him more points in Arab eyes; and finally Libya, a stop that will surely raise eyebrows and tempers in Washington.
In Tripoli, he will meet with Moammar Gadhafi and likely discuss how Brazil can tap into Libya's oil reserves -- the eight largest in the world -- now that U.N. trade restrictions against them have been lifted.

Comment: Any guesses as to what might back a India, Brazil, South Africa common currency?

Gold is

(12/05/2003; 20:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112933)

****$415.0****

Yes I believe POG will reach $500 next year. Our economy is
in bad shape. All fiat curencies fall eventually. This U.S.
economy has been doing very well for quite a while based on
nothing but our good credit. Well our credit is not so good
anymore. And growing every day. All things baised on nothing
eventually return to their begining.IMHO The truth comes out. Gold is truth. Gold is real.

I am a recent lurker to this forum. I have learned much in
a short while. I have had oppertunity to aquire some P.M.'s
and learn alot about economies, money and comodities. Thank
you all. I realise this is a gold forum, but what is the scoop on silver. How did silver fall from 1:15.5 to 1:74,
what are opinions on the chances of a major rebound. How does silver stack up as a store of value, wealth.
Thank's again, Gold is going to rise to it's rightfull place in time.
Gold is real, get more,is I will. Gold is

Houston

(12/05/2003; 20:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112934)

International Travelers and gold

A few comments to travelers to Ireland. We stayed there over Thanksgiving Week, which was wonderful. On the West Coast we even traveled through a hamlet called Money Gold! If you want to use your USA type phone card in just about any phone in the country to access the USA dial 00-800-222-55-288. Then dial your USA toll free "800" phone number, then your card number and finally your USA phone number. Using the 3.47 cents/minute for domestic USA minutes they cost about 6 units per minute from Ireland to the USA.

Referencing Survivor (12/5/03; 16:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 112923)
Paper Documentation of Gold Purchases and $10,000+ purchases reminds me of the requirement of reporting sums of US currency exceeding that amount. On our return from Ireland I asked a supervisor of Customs at BWI airport regarding bringing in or taking out of the States US gold eagles. How is, say, 200 US one-ounce eagles (face value of $10,000) treated, does it need to be reported? The answer I got was no. If 201 one-ounce eagles were imported or exported that would need to be reported. I always wondered about that but never saw an answer in print on any forum.

Goldendome

(12/05/2003; 20:30:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112935)

Bear Wedgie *!!*

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmNow, I'm not the biggest on technical analysis, BUT if you want to see a pathetic bear market rising wedge, click over and look at Tim Woods work (link above). In the context of the Dow charts since "99, this whole rally put into that context, really looks limp, lost, and doomed.

Dollar Bill

(12/05/2003; 21:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112936)

*>*

Sir Toolie, I am glad you posted as it is interesting to watch lulu.
Hard to imagine what syria has to offer brazil.
terrorist free zone status perhaps?
What in the world does syria export, um economically speaking that is....
Hopeing for some saudi loans?
Arent they barely solvent themselves? lula is like malaysias ex prime minister. Wanting a different reserve country, but not realizeing that it wont help his country.
With the us /imf boys extending loans in spite of loans to brazil, would another reserve country do any better for brazil?
If anyone has a clue as to how this might help Brazil, please add that to your post.

Dollar Bill

(12/05/2003; 22:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112937)

*>*

Sir Agingfast, Doug Nolan has talked about repo's, and I am rereading your post to learn. Feel free to post more if you choose too about repo's.
You mentioned there are other reasons they could be used.
I do believe I have read Doug talking about trying to understand repo's even more. And I would like to learn.
I am thinking you are more accurate than the Metropole cafe comments. This forum is a great classroom and an ideal seat for viewing this struggle.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/05/2003; 22:07:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112938)

Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence. USAGOLD-CPM is your friend in the business.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Toolie

(12/05/2003; 22:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112939)

@ Dollar Bill

http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/sitc3-3d/er760.htmI get the impression that Lula is most interested in retaining the sovereignty that FTAA would remove. FTAA would have required privatization and intellectual property protection programs. Brazil is unwilling to give up the ability to regulate many of its industries. At the same time, it would have allowed the US to subsidize our agriculture, to the detriment of Brazils�. It is not hard for me to imagine that the leader of any country would want retain local ownership of important industries and not open them up to powerful dollars in large quantities to cherry pick the nations productive sectors.

As for another reserve currency benefiting Brazil. My reserve is in metals. They seem to be doing better than dollars at the moment. I was surprised to find at the above link that Syria exported $3.2 bln. of crude oil in the year 2000.

The common currency that I mentioned is my speculation. There was talk some time ago of Brazil, Argentina and others developing one. A common currency strikes me a logical component of a trade bloc. I'll continue to watch for news along these lines as I enjoy watching it too. Please do the same.

Runner

(12/06/2003; 02:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112941)

****$410.8****

The POG will rise twice as fast to $500 as it did from $300 to $400 on this last run. The main stream public is catching on.

Goldbug 1

(12/06/2003; 04:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112942)

*****395.00*****

Gold will certainly top $500 in 2004 but not without a struggle.

BTW I am in Cambodia and have seen a number of the new US 'coloured' notes in circulation. Real of fake I don't know.

misetich

(12/06/2003; 06:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112943)

Global: Global Rebalancing and Dollar Risk - S. Roach

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Nor has there been any real let-up in America's outsize claim on the global saving pool. The net national saving rate in the US plunged to a record low of 0.6% in the first three quarters of 2003. That left America with little choice other than to import surplus saving from abroad in order to finance economic growth -- and run massive current account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the portion of global saving required to fund the US current-account deficit has more than tripled since 1997. The bulk of this saving has come from Asia, while a much smaller portion is traceable to Europe.
...........................
Perhaps the most disturbing element of the external financing conundrum is that it is not stable. America's rapidly deteriorating fiscal position points to steadily mounting US current-account deficits, which place ever-increasing claims on global saving. That means foreign investors will need to increase their already overweight positions in dollar-denominated assets in order to keep the US-centric global growth dynamic going.
......................
The dollar may have the final say in this great debate. A rebalancing of an unbalanced global economy cannot occur without a shift in relative prices, in my view. That puts unmistakable downward pressure on the dollar -- the world's most important relative price. In broad, trade-weighted terms the dollar has fallen about 10% (in real terms) over the past 22 months -- a quintessential soft landing. Based on current-account adjustments of the past, the dollar's downward adjustment may only be half over, at best
..........................
As I travel the world, the common response that I get when speaking of the potential for a further drop in the dollar refers to the belief that Washington wouldn't dare let the currency fall sharply before the upcoming presidential election. That reflects a deeply held view that the authorities have both the will and the means to offset the powerful confluence of market-driven and psychological forces.
********************
Misetich

Yes the "comfort" of thinking SOMEBODY will take care of this. Blind faith placed in the hands of a few fools, such as Sir Greenspan

Prior to 9/11 the world "thought" America was invincible - most still think it is and THEY ARE, in many ways! However, US is vulnerable, perhaps, like in no other time in its triumphunt history.

The "score" of "enemies" following the pathetic foreign policy of , you're either with us or against us, turning friendly allies such as Canada, Mexico, France, Germany against supporting US invasion of Iraq, against US foreign policy.

It is the "loss" of support from these countries that has tilted the scale against the US.

It is the forever "ongoing war against terror" that makes US vulnerable - (some think the US will benefit, as they're playing the military card) - some others believe the US has overextended and overeached painting itself in a corner.

Roach does not address potential unforseen events, or "shocks" in his article above- events such as the 9/11, LCTM collapse, ANOTHER Enron, or Russia debacle - which constitues the difference between a soft landing and a hard landing in the US $ as egoistical Sir Greenspan has very little left at his disposal.

Gold, Physical Gold has no rivals during turbulent times such as we are in

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Boilermaker

(12/06/2003; 06:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112944)

CB Gold Sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031206/metals_gold_panizzutti_1.htmlSnip;
DUBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Central Bank Gold Agreement could raise total sales by 17.5 percent if it is renewed next year, the former head of foreign exchange and gold at the Bank of International Settlements said on Saturday.

Since 1999, Giacomo Panizzutti had been in charge of the secretariat responsible for supervising the five-year agreement which limits total sales by 15 European central banks to 2,000 tonnes, or 400 tonnes annually. It runs out in September 2004.

"I strongly believe the agreement will be extended, probably for a slightly larger amount of around 2,300 to 2,400 tonnes, and for another five years," Panizzutti, who retired last year after a 34-year career, told a gold conference in Dubai.

"Such an increase of about 300 to 400 tonnes should not be a problem and should be easily absorbed as long as the market remains as well supported as it is just now," he said.

"I would not be surprised if they were to abandon the restriction on gold lending," he added.

The market has been eyeing three major holders of world gold reserves -- Germany, Italy and France -- as potential big sellers in any new agreement. Germany has indicated several times it would like to sell gold next time round while France and Italy have so far remained silent.

"My view is France would welcome a reduction in their gold reserves, which stand at 54 percent," Panizzutti said.

He said he would not be surprised if Switzerland decided to sell 350 to 400 tonnes between 2005 and 2009 and that Spain could easily dispose of 200 to 250 tonnes.

Panizzutti said he did not think Britain, Italy or Sweden would make further sales and that if Sweden were to enter the list of sellers it would probably be a small amount.

By September 2004, he said, the official gold holdings of the 15 signatories would amount to around 14,000 tonnes -- about half the gold owned by the official sector worldwide. He said Greece was expected to be added to the new agreement.

"I think the amount of gold central banks are holding is very large and more reductions make sense as long as it is a gradual increase and not a very large decrease," he said. "Maybe this is the right time to take a longer term view."

comment,
I don't suppose this has anything to do with capping gold prices. Giacomo didn't say what the gold sale proceeds will be "invested" into. He also didn't say anything about the results of the first five year 2000 ton sales. Seems that an accounting of those results would be helpful in guiding future sales. Has anyone asked Giacomo if the past sales have resulted in higher reserve assets with the banks that have sold or would they have been better off holding that gold. Gold selling CB's never get challenged at least by the morons in the media.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/06/2003; 07:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112945)

CB Gold Sales

With respect to my previous post, this subject, it is my opinion that most of this gold to be sold in the next 5 year CB sale program is gold that has already been loaned out, sold into the markets and not recoverable by the lendee. The CB's need a cover for the missing gold.

It seems that before any more sales are conducted that each bank requesting a sale quota be subject to a rigorous physical gold audit by an independent agent. I wonder what the people would do about their Central Banks if they knew the truth.

Boilermaker

Maverick1

(12/06/2003; 07:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112946)

Boilermaker

That single article(when analysed properly) says it all. In the three years I have been following gold I have never seen so much inaccuracy and disinformation about gold and CB sales in one article! I mean really. When I got to the end, I fully expected him to announce that a bar of gold would now be handed out along with a carton of government surplus cheese.

Maverick1

(12/06/2003; 07:15:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112947)

France Welcomes Sale?!

No way! You can say what you want about the French but they didn't amass 54% of their reserves in gold because they are fools. DeGaulle taught them well regarding US dollar hegemony. That single line alone would lead me to discredit/disregard everything that man says about the future of gold.

goldenpeace

(12/06/2003; 07:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112948)

Contest: ***********$410.0**************

Gold will certainly top $500 in 2004 since the dollar will sink a lot....because the rest of the world will call a halt to financing our profligacy and shy away from the $ standard for holding real wealth.
Bowing
goldenpeace

Boilermaker

(12/06/2003; 07:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112949)

Dubai Gold Conference

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/31760.htmlI was curious about the Dubai Gold Conference since I didn't get an invitation. Here's a snip about it

"'We are very proud to provide our support to this conference � an event that has become truly international through the profile of speakers and attending delegates,' said Ahmed bin Sulayem, COO, DMCC. 'At DMCC we are also pleased to see so much of the event devoted to manufacturing and mining � showing that Dubai is now becoming so much more than simply a centre for selling the finest jewellery. It is our belief that through partnership, and international conferences such as these, that Dubai will start to assume a far greater importance in the global marketplace for precious metals, gems and jewellery,' he concluded.

AngloGold, the largest mining corporation in the world, has been confirmed as the conference's leading key sponsor. As well as being key sponsors of the conference, a number of senior representatives from AngloGold, the Diamond Trading Company (De Beers), Credit Suisse, Standard Bank and World Gold Council, will all actively participate in the annual event. Support sponsors, including American Express, Commerzbank International SA & National Bank of Fujairah, Fiera de Vicenza, National Bank of Dubai and Scotia Mocatta, Sisma, Transguard and Emirates Airline, the official carrier for the event, are all actively involved in the promotion and support of this high profile event."

comment,
The focus is on jewelry and based on early comments the CB's want to assure the group that gold will be plentiful for many years. No need to stock up now, we'll keep it flowing.

Boilermaker

a nation of one

(12/06/2003; 07:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112950)

$$$$$ 412.00 $$$$$

Will POG go to $500 in 2004? Very likely. Once something
goes up, it is easier for it to go higher. More people are
aware of gold now. That means more will buy it. There are
many reasons why it should. None why it should not.

a nation of one

(12/06/2003; 07:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112951)

***** 412.00 *****

Sorry. Asterisks, not dollar marks.

BlackBart

(12/06/2003; 08:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112952)

****410.3****

POG will top 500 in 2004 because by the end of the year it will be obvious to all but the most numb that the Empire is crumbling fast...the many Nero's in Charge are making all the mistakes that have been made before throughout history, the primary mistake being unmitigated arrogance. Even those citizens who have never paid attention to the standing of the USD or POG are starting to take notice thanks partly to attention being paid by some of the mainstream media...that coupled with the growing nagging queasy feeling about the position of the US in world affairs will push more and more to seek refuge in a solid international safe haven for protection of their holdings.
Black Bart

Max Rabbitz

(12/06/2003; 08:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112953)

The rest of the Story,

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031206/metals_gold_panizzutti_1.htmlposted by Boilermaker. Big Bank VP says short and long-term trend of gold is positive with a firm $400 base.

"Ursula Oser, vice president head credit and fixed income research at Credit Suisse, told the conference the positive trend in gold prices would continue in the short and long term because U.S. dollar weakness was likely to persist and there was no real inflationary threat in the first half of 2004.

She also said that there were Asian currency iversification efforts into euro and gold.

Gold prices closed at near-eight-year highs of $407.30 an ounce on Friday after the U.S. dollar fell to a new low against the euro and made bullion cheaper for overseas investors.

The $400-per-ounce level, seen as a psychological barrier just weeks ago, has become a rock-solid level of support.

"I think $411 is another important resistance. It might be roken soon," Oser said. "We are cautiously optimistic on gold prices. I think there are several factors supporting gold but don't expect an upward trend to develop without corrections."

Max.....Fine but she seems to think that there is no inflation on the horizon. She must be holding Euro's.

Cavan Man

(12/06/2003; 08:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112954)

CB Gold Sales

FACT: With the USD comprising such a HUGE component of global reserves, and further, with the dollar so sick and failing, NO central bank, NO treasury, NO SOVEREIGN NATION will be selling GOLD--not now. The time for that has passed. They are buying.

The gentleman from the BIS is trying to calm the market.

Remarx

(12/06/2003; 08:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112955)

**** $405.7 ****

The POG will likely go beyond $500 late in 2004, primarily as a response to escalating turbulence related to the ME (which has been exacerbated by the illegal US invasion of Iraq). Over the past two years, the rising POG has been keeping steady pace with the progressive devaluation of the dollar. Violence will act as a "force multiplier" for gold price hikes, causing it to increase its pace of acceleration. Gold will not shoot up dramatically to the $850 level again until the Bush administration is re-selected and continue their practice of looting the US government and oppressing the people in earnest.

Max Rabbitz

(12/06/2003; 09:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112956)

****$407.4****

Yes to $500 gold in 2004. The sun will continue to rise in the east and the dollar to set in the west. Election year politics mean nothing fundamental will change, even if they still had options, which I doubt. It's full speed ahead with big promises to the speculators. Its heads the speculators win and tails the savers lose everything ..... unless you save in something golden.

Druid

(12/06/2003; 09:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112957)

November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro

Location: New York
Author: Kristina Persson
Date: Monday, November 17, 2003
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The following is a speech by Ms Kristina Persson, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Women's Economic Round Table in New York on 29th October 2003.
Introduction

Allow me first to extend special thanks for this invitation. It is particularly important for me personally as well as for the Riksbank to be given this opportunity to meet women economists and discuss current economic issues. I am privileged to be one of three women on the Riksbank's Executive Board, which has a total of six members. At the Riksbank we strive to attain an even distribution of men and women at all levels. This is a deliberate policy but also reflects the sharp rise in the proportion of women among qualified economists entering the Swedish business sector in recent decades. If this trend is to continue, and more women are to take the chance of achieving success in this traditionally male profession, we will need more role models like you here today.

The subject of my speech is "The impact of the euro", a topic that was decided before 14 September 2003 , when Sweden held a referendum on introducing the single currency. Personally I am convinced for many reasons that Sweden should introduce the euro, and made no secret of that. However, as many of you know, the result was a clear �no� to the euro.

The question of the economic advantages and disadvantages of the euro often resembles a tug-of-war between the short- and long-term perspectives. The risks, when highlighted, often temporarily overshadow the long-term gains, which arise in small incremental doses over a long period.

Unfortunately, short-term conditions came sharply into focus just when the Swedish people were about to vote, as attention was turned to the global economic slowdown and its effect on the euro area, particularly in the major countries. GDP growth in Germany and France is forecast to decline from 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively in 2002 to 0.0 and 0.3 per cent in 2003 (Riksbank forecast). This is the poorest rate of growth in these countries in over a decade. In the debate on the euro, this contraction in growth was largely attributed to the limitations imposed on these countries� economic policies, as they did not have a national monetary policy, and to the fiscal policy constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact. As we know, the budget deficits of both Germany and France have in both 2002 and 2003 exceeded the reference value of 3 per cent of GDP , which was established in the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. At the same time, attention in the debate was drawn to the temporary and one-off rise in prices of certain goods that occurred when prices were rounded after the introduction of the euro.

In light of this, it is understandable that many voters got the impression that there were no economic benefits of participation in the euro. Furthermore, those that voted against the single currency may have been strengthened in their belief by the fact that the �no� vote was not followed by any speculation against the krona, which instead has appreciated against both the euro and the dollar since the referendum.

What didn't feature in the same way in the debate was the longer-term perspective - and it is this perspective that I believe speaks in favour of the euro. It proved difficult to explain that the underlying causes of the crisis in Germany and France were mainly domestic structural problems, partly in the labour market. Those problems had existed long before EMU and could not be remedied by a separate currency and monetary policy. At the same time, the economic slowdown overshadowed the long-term transaction gains of a single currency for trade and the financial markets.

In earlier economic research, the gains associated with a single currency were often viewed as uncertain and very small at best. As there were very few contemporary examples of currency unions, comparisons were made instead between fixed and floating exchange rates, in which fixed exchange rates did not appear to result in any definite welfare gains. More recent research has concentrated on the smaller currency unions that have nevertheless existed, and has excluded other factors in so-called gravitation models. This research has pointed to quite substantial gains from currency unions (a shift in the magnitude of 50 per cent or even more according to researchers such as Andrew K Rose, at Berkeley ). Even conservative estimates indicate a considerable rise in trade within currency areas, and attendant welfare gains. Other studies, which are directly based on trade dynamics in the last decade, suggest that trade between the euro area countries may have increased by 5-10 per cent as a result of the euro.

Another long-term gain is in price competition. The limited and temporary rise in prices of certain goods and services in conjunction with the introduction of the euro notes and coins should be weighed against the long-term gains from price transparency, the effect of easier price comparisons when prices in the entire euro area are expressed in the same currency. Previously, this particular gain was also perceived as minimal as cross-border trade is relatively small and companies themselves are said to be capable of converting prices regularly between currencies without suffering any major efficiency losses. However, at the same time, there were price differences in the EU of 20-30 per cent on a number of goods (cars, for example) that should be relatively easy to both transport over the border and compare in terms of price. These differences appear to have diminished quicker since euro banknotes and coins were introduced in 2001. New research also suggests that the effects of a common currency on prices may have been underestimated. For instance, Charles Engel from the University of Wisconsin compared price differences for the same goods in cities on both sides of the Canadian and US border with price differences between different cities in the US . Although US and Canadian cities have largely the same language and culture, as well as free trade, the different currencies cause prices to vary as much on each side of the border as between cities at opposite ends of the US .

Finally, of course, there is the increasingly important role of the euro as a dominant international currency.

The most immediate gain from this is an increase in seignorage income to the extent that the euro is more widely held outside the euro area than the sum of the currencies that preceded it. Taken as a whole, the euro area is the world's largest exporter and importer, accounting for about one-fifth of international trade. Despite this the US dollar is still the most common counterparty in foreign exchange trading and the widespread use of the dollar as a �vehicle currency� in itself reinforces its status. Given that the euro is still a young currency it is likely to grow in importance and may in time have the potential to catch up with the dollar's share in the foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, by replacing 12 currencies, in particular the German mark and the French franc, the euro was used immediately as a reserve currency by central banks and became part of a currency basket (for example in Morocco) or a solitary anchor for the exchange rate policy of some countries (like Estonia, Bosnia and Bulgaria). Nevertheless, two-thirds of world reserves are still held in US dollars compared with less than 15 per cent in euros, although since the euro's introduction there appears to have been a gradual shift in the composition of the reserves of large economies such as Russia , and even China , towards an increased share for the euro. All this points to larger income to the euro area from external holders of the euro, a small but not insignificant gain given that estimates of US seignorage income from external holders of the dollar is estimated at almost 1 per cent of GDP .

The euro is also bound to increase the efficiency of euro area financial markets. The use of the euro in the international debt market has increased compared with the joint share of its preceding currencies. The share of international bonds denominated in euros and issued by non-euro area residents has increased to about 30 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for the currencies that preceded the euro. Important factors behind this development are the larger home-currency investor base and the better issuing conditions for international borrowers provided by the unified European money market, which is now more liquid and efficient than the markets in the individual countries before the introduction of the euro.

Needless to say, European equity markets have also been affected by the disappearance of currency risk within the euro area. There appears to be a gradual shift from the domestic focus in the euro area countries to a euro area-wide, sector-related, view. Integration is likely to attract a broader range of potential investors and benefit the development of private equity and financing opportunities for new firms.

In addition to these economic advantages, we must naturally also include what I consider to be the decisive political arguments in favour of Sweden participating fully in the political and economic cooperation with a view to attaining a position of influence in a strong and prosperous Europe .

The fact that the Swedish krona has not been more negatively affected by the result of the referendum, despite the foregone advantages, could in turn be due to long-term factors that are independent of EMU. The political uncertainty ahead of the referendum should indeed have contributed to the somewhat weaker krona during the summer. However, the krona has been considered undervalued for a long time. So, one reason for the krona's current recovery is that the markets are once again focusing on Sweden 's long-term, stable macroeconomic policy, which has remained in place regardless of EMU. This policy includes the Riksbank's inflation target and a budgetary framework that has the support of all parliamentary parties.

Thus, Sweden will remain outside the euro for the time being, together with its fellow EU countries Denmark and the UK . But as early as May next year the EU will have ten new Member States and around 100 million new inhabitants, the vast majority from Central and Eastern Europe. Of these ten, nine have expressed their desire to join monetary union as soon as they meet the convergence criteria. Contrary to many people's expectations, several of these countries appear fully capable of meeting the criteria in the next few years. After a decade of reforms leading from planned economy to market economy, inflation and budget deficits have been cut and debt levels have been kept in check in a number of the smaller countries, while for the bigger countries, such as Poland , Hungary and the Czech Republic , budget consolidation is their last remaining obstacle. So it is not unrealistic that a handful of new countries could introduce the euro as early as 2006-2007, or in any case 2-3 years later. It may be that Sweden , Denmark and the UK will have to discuss their future relationship to the euro at the same time as the euro area expands to include half a dozen new countries.

The Central and Eastern European countries will also have to weigh the long-term gains of adopting the euro against the risks of asymmetric shocks. The advantages for these countries are perhaps even clearer than for Sweden . Particularly substantial gains may arise from increased financial integration through the euro. Thanks to the fact that banks from EU countries have acquired large sections of the banking system in eastern Europe, the financial sector there has been able to evolve relatively quickly. But the new Member States� financial systems are still rather undeveloped, with credits in relation to GDP of between one-eighth and one-quarter of that in the euro area. Sweden 's Baltic neighbour Estonia is one example of how currency integration can help the financial system to evolve. The Estonians have pegged their currency to the euro for over a decade and are keen to quickly take the step into monetary union. Their banking system is owned by Swedish-Nordic banks and credit volumes are growing by 20-30 per cent a year - most of which is denominated in euro. In some countries, the euro can also help to cement the macroeconomic discipline that is still a relatively new phenomenon there.

Meanwhile, the risks that stem from the countries possibly diverging from the euro area average are perhaps also clearer than for Sweden (which is a country that is unusually well-integrated with euro area countries and has a similar economic structure). But some factors suggest that the new Member States in central Europe do not need a different monetary policy than that of the euro area. These countries also have close ties with the rest of the EU, which is their biggest trading partner by far, accounting for some 50-70 per cent of imports and exports. Having said that, the countries are still undergoing a period of quick change; it is conceivable that any potential shocks during such a transitional period would be managed better through a national monetary policy. Their growth is and should be considerably higher than the EU average as long as they continue to reduce the differences in their standard of living compared with the rest of the EU. This always entails risks of overheating similar to that experienced by the fast-growing Irish economy.

The assessment of the risks related to the process of change and of the long-term gains varies between the different candidate countries depending on how open and flexible their economies are. Nevertheless, it seems that the advantages of integration will outweigh the disadvantages when the new countries have assessed the euro, even if it is likely that some of the new Member States will have to wait longer than others before introducing the euro.

If there are such gains to be made from a common currency in a reunified Europe , would it not be possible that such gains may also be attained on a global level? Should we continue on a path towards more global monetary cooperation? There are many arguments both for and against such an arrangement. In recent years we have seen substantial exchange rate fluctuations between some of the world's large economic blocs. These have largely been related to developments in the US dollar. The dollar's weakening against the euro has recently gained impetus once again; in two years, the euro/dollar exchange rate has gone from a low of 84 cents to 1.18 dollars in recent weeks - a rise of just over 40 per cent. Discussions of the implications of an overvalued dollar for the US current account deficit have quickly turned into concern over the effects of the rapid fall in the dollar on euro area growth. Should there be a quicker correction in the US current account deficit due to diminishing interest among international investors in US assets, the dollar could weaken further. A fast and dramatic depreciation of the dollar could derail Europe 's fragile recovery.

But in addition to this concern over excessively sharp movements in exchange rates, an equally heated discussion has flared up in recent months, both in the US and Europe, as to whether the perhaps most important fixed peg that exists today between two major international currencies, that between the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi, should be abandoned. For the past decade, the Chinese currency has been pegged by the People's Bank of China at a rate of around 8.28 renminbi per dollar. Critics of this policy, mainly leading US politicians and some industrialists, believe that Chinese exports have been given an unfair advantage when the renminbi has tracked the dollar's fall against the euro.

The most drastic answer to these exchange rate issues would be to propose a new global monetary system of the kind that existed after the Second World War and up to the early 1970s in the shape of the Bretton Woods Agreement and the link via the dollar to gold. This kind of solution has actually been recommended by Robert Mundell, a currency area theorist and winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Even Keynes considered the establishment of a global currency, the bancor. Mundell points to transaction gains for trade and the financial markets, but also other arguments. One of these is that the signalling of international relative prices is distorted by exchange rate fluctuations caused by capital flows. Another is that the global economy has led to increasingly weak money illusion, the illusion that prevents wage-earners from immediately perceiving a deterioration in their purchasing power following a depreciation, and from demanding compensation that would render the depreciation ineffectual. Despite the intellectual appeal of such arguments, it is not difficult to see that during the past decade, the US, Europe and Japan have had very different growth rates and their business cycles have been highly unsynchronised. Given that monetary policy would be dictated by the monetary system, a tremendous burden would be placed on fiscal policy to stabilise the economy when the differences across the common monetary area are too great. The large real adjustments that would be required in wages and relative prices in the US and Europe - instead of an adjustment in the exchange rate - would probably cost more than the gains derived from having fixed global exchange rates.

Therefore, the requirements necessary to make such a system work, which in reality are the factors that determine what constitutes an optimal currency area, indicate that such a solution is a distant prospect, if it should become reality at all. In addition, there are the practical and administrative problems of organising such a global monetary system, indeed even a global central bank with representation from all countries.

A middle ground between a single currency or single monetary standard such as Bretton Woods, and fully floating exchange rates, would be intervention bands and controlled exchange rates between, for instance, the euro and the dollar. However, this would partly suffer from the same problems as a fully fixed regime. Furthermore, we would encounter the same dilemma that characterised all semi-fixed, or fixed but adjustable exchange rate arrangements, which failed so miserably over the past ten years. The list is long, from Sweden's and the ERM countries� crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, to the crises in Mexico, Asia, Russia and Brazil during the subsequent decade. All displayed some similar characteristics, which a controlled exchange rate between the dollar and euro would also be unable to escape. At some point in time, the market becomes aware that the political gains of avoiding painful real adjustments are probably less than the costs and loss of prestige associated with an exchange rate adjustment. Once the market realises this, speculation follows and the costs of defending the exchange rate mount, at the same as the potential loss of prestige from adjustment diminishes. In the end, an exchange rate adjustment becomes economically unavoidable and politically acceptable - regardless of whether politicians wanted it. Of course, such a spiral is not possible with a single currency where adjustments must occur without devaluation and where speculation of this kind is impossible.

Do not these arguments lead us to conclude that China too should let its currency float? After all, China is one of the world's largest economies that in spite of its increasing openness follows a course of its own. Critics of the dollar peg believe that if the renminbi were allowed to float, it would appreciate, thus reducing China's current account surplus and shrinking the US deficit. In the long term, I believe that it is right to allow the renminbi to float. In the short term, however, it is difficult to see this as the appropriate solution. The main reason for not floating the renminbi yet is the Chinese financial system. The Chinese banking system is still a long way from being adapted to market conditions, and a large proportion of its lending is still made to state-owned companies that are often unable to honour their payment obligations. If we take into account all the hidden and disclosed non-performing loans in the banking system, these are estimated to be equal to as much as half of China's GDP , and they are continuing to grow. Were the currency allowed to float before addressing these problems, it is just as likely to depreciate as appreciate since the Chinese public could take advantage of the opportunity to transfer its assets abroad instead of saving at low interest rates in the weak 5 domestic banking system, a system that would then be rocked to its foundations. The experiences of many countries, including Sweden at the beginning of the 1990s, show that the foreign exchange market should not be deregulated until the banking system has been reformed.

Could China not revalue then and adapt the exchange rate to its trade surplus without floating its currency? In my opinion, this would not be such a wise decision either. It is wrong to attribute China's trade surplus with the US to the currency issue. The surplus is probably best explained by the cost advantages enjoyed by Chinese producers in labour-intensive goods compared with the US. China's trade surplus can be seen as a natural consequence of the division of labour within the Pacific region where China's position as supplier and sub-supplier of low value-added goods is highly favourable for US productivity. This is a segment in which the Chinese compete with very few US producers, which is why an exchange rate adjustment would have only a marginal impact. In actual fact, an excessively large one-off adjustment would be required to have any effect at all on the US-Chinese trade balance. Such a large correction would in turn give rise to problems for Chinese trade elsewhere. It is with the US that China enjoys a large surplus, while the trade balance is close to zero or is negative with many other areas, including the euro area. This picture is confirmed by many fundamental analyses of an equilibrium exchange rate for China, which come relatively close to China's fixed exchange rate today. Furthermore, China currently has either very low inflation or deflation, which normally points to devaluation pressure rather than revaluation pressure (a need for real depreciation). Finally, China and other the Asian economies that are trying to prop up the value of their currencies are the main purchasers of US Treasury bonds. So, in a situation where the US government finances are deteriorating, the Chinese exchange rate regime is actually helping to depress US long yields and indirectly bolstering the US recovery.

My conclusion is that China in the short term should retain its fixed exchange rate until such time as its financial system has undergone more substantial reform, which is something that nevertheless must be done in the coming years. In the long term, however, a floating exchange rate appears unavoidable for a country that is on the way to becoming one of the world's leading economies. It is only in the much longer term, when China is highly integrated with the world economy, that fixed exchange-rate cooperation can become a possibility once again.

This conclusion brings me back to the main line of my argument: Europe can gradually be enlarged to become a relatively big currency area that includes all the countries, from Ireland in the west to Estonia in the east, where the long-term microeconomic gains outweigh the recurring but temporary macroeconomic costs. As the representative of a central bank, I must add that it is interesting to at least toy with the idea of how a global currency and global monetary policy would look. But for the time being this will probably remain no more than an intellectually stimulating vision. At global level, integration needs to go much further, and the economies become more synchronised, if the long-term gains of fixed exchange-rate cooperation are to outweigh the risks.

In the long term, it is not inconceivable that a trend will arise towards large regional currency blocs with single currencies, but with flexibility between them. Within these blocs, it will be possible to reap the advantages of integration fully, while the risks will be limited by increasingly similar conditions in the countries taking part in the common currency. Competition between these areas regarding which has the dominant reserve currency may increase gradually. The dollar's unique position will weaken, just as we are seeing today with a numbe

Druid

(12/06/2003; 09:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112958)

November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro

November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro
Location: New York
Author: Kristina Persson
Date: Monday, November 17, 2003
Print Article
Email Article

******The remaining text from my previous post******

The dollar's unique position will weaken, just as we are seeing today with a number of Asian central banks planning to increase their assets in euro and reduce those in dollars. Let us hope that there will also be cooperation between the regions, so as to give the world greater stability, development and continued integration.

Druid: An excellent read. It is, to say the least, a difficult undertaking to coordinate monetary and political policies from such a diverse set of participants. Sometimes a little short term pain is worth the longer term gain. There are so many variables to consider.

Skydog

(12/06/2003; 10:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112959)

****$412.2****

$500 gold in 2004? Done deal...Sinclair says so!

Liberty Head

(12/06/2003; 10:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112960)

The Scenery On The Road To $500

I am captivated by our gracious hosts contest question: $500 gold, and why?
It has me thinking more about the events and the living conditions we will experience as the POG passes another century mark. This forum has covered the myriad fundamentals for a rising POG quite well. However, it often takes a huge precipitating event to get the next group of behemoth-sized dominoes to fall.
Not to be deterred by scary questions, what likely precipitating events will occur on the road to $500 gold?
I think the next presidential election will play a major role. Those with high zeal to rule, have a tendency to keep their power by hook or by crook. We may have seen our last free election. The ranks will be filled by conscription. Fear will be the rule.
Those with high zeal for freedom, responsibility and integrity have manned their battle stations. The ranks will be filled from the homeless, the jobless, and the debt-ridden masses as the rose colored glasses are smashed from their bloody faces. Anger will be the rule.
Another dimension of deadly war is upon us, increasingly on our home turf.
As the POG rises, the war will become more and more personal for all.
The good news is, as we saw with the steel tariffs, U-turns are still possible.

Best Wishes

TomJIl

(12/06/2003; 10:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112961)

****$395.4****

Gold to reach $500/oz in 2004? I would bet that it will.
Why? Looking at the 10 year chart (and eyeballing a curve fit), it looks to me like even the second derivative is positive. It's hard to imagine a mechanism to turn such a trend around sufficiently to keep it from hitting the $500 level. On the other hand, as is adequatly documented on this board, there are many mechanisms in effect which could promote the current trend.

I guessed low since I see no reason to believe that those who wish the price to remain low have run out of ammunition, and a price compfortably below the $400 level would be especially damaging to moral now that people are talking about it as a solid floor. Hope I'm wrong ;)

- Tom

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 11:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112962)

Financial Sense Online - Dec 6

http://financialsense.comJim's interview this morning with bearish Bob Prechter of Elliottwave.com is very unique in that Bob is one of the few bears who is not particularly bullish on commodities yet. His strong evidence of serious deflationary threat suggests that commodities, though not nearly as vulnerable as paper, may very well take hits during the deflation phase of this bear. He thinks holding them is not all bad, but the real bull in metals will occur AFTER the deflation turns to serious or hyper-inflation. It's not completely different from the other bear analysts, but much more slanted towards needed a deflationary wring-out before the inflationary kick checks in.

Certainly worthwile listening as he backs his story with a LOT of data and comparisons of the macro trends of the major bear markets. As his recommendation leans toward cash, I have some misgivings as I watch my cash wilt in the short timeframe. Gold and silver still seem to be a better form of "cash" to me. I think he's right that the real money will be made shorting the markets, but timing and resources make this a very dangerous game for most investors.

misetich

(12/06/2003; 11:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112963)

Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=28756Snip:

December 4 � Far Eastern Economic Review: "Although still intervening heavily in the foreign-exchange market, in the last few months China has radically scaled back its purchases of United States bonds. In September, Chinese institutions were actually net sellers of U.S. government and agency debt by $2.8 billion, even though foreign reserves rose by $19 billion. Now, economists and market strategists are beginning to wonder what Beijing is doing with all the dollars it is buying. Chinese state media provided a partial answer in early December, reporting that Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion. Bankers and brokers in Hong Kong predict further large purchases of strategic materials, together with the possible acquisition of equity stakes in overseas suppliers over the coming year. If pursued, China's diversification away from U.S. government bonds will be bad news for Washington, which has relied heavily on China's debt purchases to fund its fiscal and current-account deficits. In Asia, some economists even say Washington had it coming, suggesting that the switch is subtle retaliation for current U.S. trade pressures on Beijing."
......................
Importantly, the demise of King Dollar has set in motion a major devaluation of the world's reserve currency. Accordingly, things priced globally in dollars are experiencing a major inflationary revaluation. Crude oil, gold, platinum, copper, soybeans, and commodities generally have all experienced significant price inflation. Buyers and sellers of such assets are forced to make major adjustments. At the same time, runaway global dollar liquidity provides extraordinary purchasing power for buying (especially by China!), investing and speculating.
..............................
******************
Misetich

Sir Greenspan can sleep in peace. There is no price deflation in commodities.

China's growth and divestments of overvalued US $, puts pressure on the rest of US $ foreign holders

Sir Greenspan has been clamoring for "some inflation" to avert the dreaded deflation - he's getting his wish and then some!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 11:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112964)

Roach posting

@misitech:

I found it interesting that Roach described the dollar declne as about 10% in "real" value, when most are touting the Dx numbers of 120 to 90, a 25% decline. If he is discounting the rising foreign currency part of the equation, I might buy 12-15%, but that suggests complete isolationism - a radical decline from the current state of affairs.

I've already submitted my contest essay, but it appears to me that if if pundits proclaiming another 25% decline in Dx are correct, the price of gold in US$ should reach $500 based on dollar decline alone, with no real adjustment to worldwide value! After all, $100 increase from $400 is 25%!

Way oversimplified, yes, but not completely out of line.

-Goldilox

mikal

(12/06/2003; 11:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112965)

*******409.60******

It won't require a large, facilitating event to enable gold to see $500 next year given the striking, almost shocking appearance of gold to the technical chartist accounting for wide-ranging, international fundamentals and
unprecedented financial market deception, fraud and derivative opacity.
The roadmap of gold's destiny shows many markers will be chalked up into it's book of golden memories for many years to come.

Shermag

(12/06/2003; 11:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112966)

****$402.7****

Yes, the gold price will probably exceed $500 in 2004. Given the propensity for a loss in confidence in the US dollar as the imbalances leaning against the dollar grow, a sudden downward revision and a correlated rise in gold is likely.

Gandalf the White

(12/06/2003; 11:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112967)

TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA--- UPDATE !!!!

POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately HIGH NOON 12:00 (Denver time) SATURDAY 12/6/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)

goldquest

(12/06/2003; 12:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112968)

****$500.00****

NO! Gold will not reach $500 in 2004. It will reach $500 yet this year! Secretly, I am wishing for The Invisible Hand to win this contest!

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 12:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112969)

The Wizard of Oz symbolism

http://www.mayanmajix.com/art377.htmlDave Morgan linked this site in his "Silver Week in Review" section as he is out of town. I think I've seen it before, but it was much more lucid given the education I have received here and on related sites.

The following characters each have a symbolic reference that is absolutely hilarious:

OZ
TOTO
TIN man
Straw Man
Cowardly Lion
Wizard
Flying Monkeys

I vaguely remember that the witches (god and bad) had some symbolism, but it's not covered in this article and I don't recall the connection. The article author has an evangelistic bent, so maybe the witches are religious symbols he is missing. I don't know. L Frank Baum was pretty ingenious.

Great Albino Bat

(12/06/2003; 12:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112970)

Misetich: Here is the GAB's guano on Roach and "Global Rebalancing".

The gist of Roach's thinking in the interesting piece you quoted earlier, misetich, is that once the Dollar's international value arrives at a lower level - he seems to think that another "10%" will do the trick - the "global rebalancing" will take place smoothly and business will go on as usual.

Mr. Roach is a fine analyst and has spoken a lot of truths in the past, but this approach of his is way too optimistic. Maybe he just doesn't dare say how grave the true world situation is, not wanting to be accused of panic-mongering.

Not only is the American economy's situation dire; the whole world is out of joint. All countries of the world have been affected by the orgy of dollar reserve creation. The Japanese in their effort to keep the Dollar up against the Yen are just one outstanding example, The fact is, ALL countries are going to take a tremendous hit, when the Dollar goes down and ceases to be a reserve asset.

Just when is that "when"? I'll take a guess. (I think it would make an interesting contest subject, in a long-term contest, of course) I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a world Central Bank reserve asset by December 2005, with odds of 50%.

Further, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2008, with odds of 65% likelihood. Two out of three, in other words.

Also, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2013, with odds of 99%.

But getting back to the consequences. The enormous consequences of the Dollar's collapse are inevitable, because the whole world is structured to produce stuff for Americans. When the American economy cannot import the amounts it presently imports, because the Dollar is no longer a reserve asset, then...economic activity the world over is going to suffer a crushing blow. Mass closures of factories the world over will take place, throwing hundreds of millions out of work. The readjustment of all the world's economies is going to require the dismantling of an enormous amount of industry created during the "drug orgy" of unlimited Dollar credit expansion, credit created out of nothing.

I suppose it is these considerations that lead the BIS spokeman to assure us that Central Bank gold sales will increase 17.5% in the next international agreement on such sales. Anything to gain time; not to avoid the debacle, just to move it a little further out into the future. Better to die tomorrow, than today.

Do we really want to see this happen? Sure, the world is living a dream, an illusion, an unsustainable illusion...but do we really want to wake up and face the music?

If we are given more time, let's not despair if gold is contained to a mild rise, to prolong the illusion. It WILL "go to the moon" in due course. As I said, I think it's 99% certain this will happen within 10 years. Just that more time to accumulate gold.

Comments on this guano are welcome.

The GAB

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 13:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112971)

OZ symbolism

Duh! . . .not to mention the "Yellow Brick Road" - the path to hard money!

Now if I can make a connection to Elton and Bernie's symbolism in

"Goodbye to Yellow Brick Road, where the dogs of society howl!"

Do you think we can tie in Spot and Spike somehow? We might need to supplement their roo meat with "Flying Monkey" meat. . . hmmm

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/06/2003; 13:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112972)

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Agingfast

(12/06/2003; 13:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112973)

misetich - re: Credit Bubble Bulletin

The excellent Doug Noland report that you posted discusses the price inflation pressures that are building in the US economy - highlighted most recently by the explosive 26% year-over-year rise in the Food Commodities Index. He makes the point that fixed-income investors are lulled to sleep by the likelihood that the Fed will use the excuse of weak job growth to continue to anchor the yield curve with a 1% fed funds rate for a long time to come, especially with the presidential election only 11 months away. But, IMO, the hook (to use an old Joe Granville term) may lie in the sudden realization that the Democrats' nominee for the White House job will be such a weak candidate that the Fed may be willing to reverse the direction of the funds rate a lot sooner than investors expect.

Usul

(12/06/2003; 14:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112974)

****** $408.0 *******

Gold (GC3Z) has gained at the rate of approximately $50 in 4 and one half months, to stand above $400 as I write.
In fact, if I plot spot gold from June 5th to December 5th, and extrapolate a linear regression line through 2004, the line hits $500. It strikes significantly lower if I go back 1 year. On the longer range gold chart of several years, a saucer shape may be discerned. Therefore, it is reasonable to see an acceleration in the rate of rise of the price of gold- and I suspect that the rate will increase even further next year, so that $500 gold will very likely be seen before 2004 is out. There is also the fact that the dollar is poised for an accelerating decline, because of the profligate money creation, debt burden, military expenditure, and the shifting of the real creation of wealth (manufacturing) to China. Another factor is the existence of an echo-bubble temporary bull market in equities during 2003. Some have noted the rising-wedge formation in US equities. This is also evident in the FTSE. As the equity bear re-asserts itself in 2004, additional buying interest will come into the gold market.

Waverider

(12/06/2003; 15:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112975)

Goldilox, Roach

I'm with you here in that I question how he calculates a 10% decline in "real terms". The U.S. Dollar Index is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies - Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, Pound 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, and Swiss CHF 3.6%. The DX 22 months ago (Feb.'02) was around 120 and the decline to date is 25%, as you indicated. How can anything be discounted in those figures for Roach to calculate a "real" decline of only 10%? I don't get it... BTW - I calculate that the DX is in the third wave (starting Sept 2'03 @ 99.07) of a 3-wave decline, with wave 1 measuring 28.63. According to Fibonacci ratios and retracements for corrective waves in a normal zig-zag correction, the third wave should about equal the first - this puts a PO for the DX at about 70 - about another 21% or so decline. This is purely looking at the technicals of course, and GAB's comments deserve significant consideration.

Meanwhile ~ for some wild and bizarre entertainment, listen to Pink Flyod's "Dark Side of the Moon" while watching The Wizard of Oz on mute - start the music when the MGM lion roars for the third time - that was a tip to me some time ago from Black Blade...so ya *know* it's gata be good! Cheers,

Waverider

Shanti

(12/06/2003; 15:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112976)

**********$404.4***********

Yes in my opinion we will see POG over $500 in 2004 :

The MAGNITUDE of the rise in the $POG is accelerating since 2001. Projecting 2004, we can expect a rise above the $500 level.
This ofcourse beside any Natural / Economical / Political event(s) who could drive the acceleration far above that level.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti

(12/06/2003; 15:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112977)

An early thank you. . . .Holiday Gifts of Gold

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/Wanted to thank all the regulars plus new visitors who have already taken advantage of our new USAGOLD-Jewelry web site. We've gotten off to a fast start thanks to you, and Marie is doing her best to keep up. In fact we are pleasantly suprised at the response.

We checked our prices against several local jewelry outlets and found their pricing substantially above ours and higher than most the 'comparative retails' posted in our on-line jewelry catalogue. The quality on the items that have come through thus far is exceptional, and the jewelry is beautiful -- dazzling is a good word to describe the effect. Plenty of 'oohs, ahs and wows' on some of the pieces from the staff......a recent Panda gold coin necklace was memorable and the 18kt watches, and 14kt omegas are spectacular.

Watches and necklaces seem to be the hot items....And coin jewelry is selling well as it always does.

We haven't set a firm date yet on order cut-offs in time for Christmas, but it wouldn't hurt to order early if you possibly can.

Was at the mall today and noted lots of interest in the jewelry stores. Before you plunk down the big bucks there, check with us. You might be pleasantly surprised. You can pay more if want to, but you don't have to. And we get it to you quickly with our Fed Ex delivery program.

I could rattle on, but instead let me simply invite your visit.......at the link above. We are pleased with our entre into the jewelry business -- a quality product and program offered happily this Holiday Season 2003.

DryWasher

(12/06/2003; 17:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112978)

at Great Albino Bat (Ref. msg#: 112970)

First let me thank you for that impassioned and well reasoned post. Not guano at all, but instead good solid food for thought. If I may quote a bit from it:

"Also, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2013, with odds of 99%.

But getting back to the consequences. The enormous consequences of the Dollar's collapse are inevitable, because the whole world is structured to produce stuff for Americans. When the American economy cannot import the amounts it presently imports, because the Dollar is no longer a reserve asset, then...economic activity the world over is going to suffer a crushing blow. Mass closures of factories the world over will take place, throwing hundreds of millions out of work. The readjustment of all the world's economies is going to require the dismantling of an enormous amount of industry created during the "drug orgy" of unlimited Dollar credit expansion, credit created out of nothing."

While I agree with the logic behind the above, and I agree that it might well play out as you indicate, let me caution that their are many other possible scenarios, and that history teaches us that events often follow a path that no one would anticipate.

For example, perhaps the worlds only superpower might well force the continued acceptance of the Dollar by using its military might. Who would dare to stand up against such a power that showed that it was actually willing to use nuclear weapons against any nation which dared to step out of line?

Or perhaps reason could prevail and a new world economic order based on the proven Gold Standard and mutual respect among nations might be put in place by wise and honest leaders.

Or ........................ (You get the idea.)

To me the most important part of your post is the following:

"Do we really want to see this happen? Sure, the world is living a dream, an illusion, an unsustainable illusion...but do we really want to wake up and face the music?"

I think you have identified the real problem in the above questions, and I fear that as a whole, we the people do not want to wake up to the realities but rather want to continue the illusion to the bitter end, just as the drug addict wants the high to go on forever. More good reasons to have GOLD in your possession.

Thanks again, and best wishes.
DryWasher.

specie-man

(12/06/2003; 17:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112979)

The GAB's dollar forecast

The GAB wrote:
"I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a world Central Bank reserve asset by December 2005, with odds of 50%."

Hmm...
That corresponds well to the countdown essay I posted here a while back called "The Fall of 2005". That is when I think everyone will let go of the US dollar.

spotlight

(12/06/2003; 17:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112980)

reserve dollars converted to commodity assets?

Snippet:

December 4 � Far Eastern Economic Review: "Although still intervening heavily in the foreign-exchange market, in the last few months China has radically scaled back its purchases of United States bonds. In September, Chinese institutions were actually net sellers of U.S. government and agency debt by $2.8 billion, even though foreign reserves rose by $19 billion. Now, economists and market strategists are beginning to wonder what Beijing is doing with all the dollars. Chinese state media provided a partial answer in early December, reporting that Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion. Bankers and brokers in Hong Kong predict further large purchases of strategic materials, together with the possible acquisition of equity stakes in overseas suppliers over the coming year.
***********************************************************

Comment:
Consider the following quote from the above:

"Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion."
***********************************************
Commodity prices have been soaring this year, up 35%+. Purchases of US treasury bonds fell drastically. When you put these two together it could spell trouble for the US bond market and the dollar reserve status. It is quite possible countries loaded with dollars have decided to buy and hold commodities they need on a regular basis, at today's prices, rather than watch the purchasing power of their dollar reserves depreciate. Further ramifications from this should wait for confirmation.

Confirmation would be in the form of more reports of poor US bond sales plus a continuation of commodity accumulation plus, also, possible buyout or buying of interest in commodity producers worldwide.

We seem to be in a clever, governmental reserve assets transition and diversification. By buying and storing the commodities they will need in the future with dollars, they are cloaking, to some degree their disdain of the dollar while protecting their wealth.

Crosswind

(12/06/2003; 17:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112981)

ThankYou

Have lurked 4 years now , this forum is one of my daily reads and favorite websites.
..............391.75.................

Gandalf the White

(12/06/2003; 17:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112982)

WELCOME Sir Crosswind !!

Have a chair at the TABLEROUND and let us hear from you often.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/06/2003; 18:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112983)

Sir Crosswind !

Thanks for the EXTRA nickel !
The Hobbits got that.
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 18:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112984)

GAB guano

@ DryWasher:

As many of us have witnessed, that there bat guano can be mighty potent stuff!!

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 18:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112985)

Converting Chinese reserves

@ Spotlight:
re: Far Eastern Economic Review

Some of these columnists' myopia amazes me. They ask questions like "What are the Chinese going to do with all those US $ reserves. Can they not remember back two weeks when the Chinese delegation was here buying oodles of 737s and gobs of trucks, cars, and tractors. If they're buying boatloads of vehicles, they're GONNA need an ocean of gas and oil, especially as they reverse engineer these goodies and start the competitive manufacturing lines rolling. As soon as they figgered out the trade sanctions were a bluff, they also rescheduled the meetings to close contracts on acre-bushels of soybeans and corn stocks to feed all those busy bees on the assembly lines. Gonna need MUCH Tofu.

Yes, folks, the Chinese are moving out of the peepee paper markets and buying USEFUL stuff with their excess US $. Mainstream American investors don't seem savvy enough to do the same, but who can blame them with all the yee-ha hoopla on the idiot box? There're still buying stocks with PEs of 100+ and earnings of spittle (not the folks here, I hope, but too many of our bretheren).

Goldilox

(12/06/2003; 18:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112986)

Dream state

@ GAB:

When you mentioned the resistance to waking from "The dream", I was reminded of the post by Sir ORO in the HOF. He likened our state to the plot of "Matrix", where the entire world is a virtual dream state with only a select few having the knowledge of the machinations.

Recurring themes . . .

Goldilox

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/06/2003; 19:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112987)

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R Powell

(12/06/2003; 19:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112988)

******* $406.7 ******

Now, then, POG above $300 ?? Ah..$400?
No wait, that's an old contest, let me see....

Ah, here's the question...$500...

Without cant or cacophony but with candor and care, compose a clear, concise and candid composition conjecturing conclusively concerning conditions committing the POG toward climatic calibrations of calculus.

The severity of the damage caused by the underlying government fiscal and monetary policies, as reflected and enhansed in the general global business world will become apparent to a greater amount of investment money, thus accelerating the reaction to this perception. The rate of increase will be very unstable but will increase.
Happy weekend
Rich

heavy mettle

(12/06/2003; 20:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112989)

****$408.5****

Definitely gold will hit $500 in 2004.

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." Albert Einstein

I don't see a whole lot of new thinking going on in the world today. Even if there was, it wouldn't make much difference at this point.

Felix the Cat

(12/06/2003; 21:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112990)

****$ 413.3****

I think POG will be closed to $500 in 2004. Because next year is voting year both in USA and Taiwan. So, investors should take more time to think about it!

Thanks
F. C

Tranquility Base

(12/06/2003; 22:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112991)

******$412.6******

I think we will see $500 gold in 2004. I base my opinions on much of the wisdom that I read on these pages which help me to develop a bullish attitude toward gold. Technically the massive reverse head and shoulders should resolve itself to $500 plus within that time frame. $500 gold would be a 25% gain from this point which is not out of range in any bull market. Much less of a problem in a bull market that seems to be accelerating and still has years to go. I would prefer it to take all year to get there so that we will still have a long journey to the top. However, I am not waiting to get on "The Express" as Sir Misetich suggests. The whistle is a blowin, and thanks to all of you, I have a window seat.
Tranquility Base here,
The Eagle has landed

commish

(12/06/2003; 22:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112992)

****403.60****

The herd will be tired of semiconductors and pile into precious metals. Yes on $500 Gold.

Goldendome

(12/07/2003; 00:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112994)

@ Goldilox: A Parable on Populism and the Silver movement.

http://www.amphigory.com/oz.htm
Sir Goldilox: The Wizard of Oz, that you presented in yesterday's discussion, is a fascinating parable of the political and economic struggles within the United States during the final decade of the 19th century. Presented in what seems a children's book.

One of the unfortunate changes made in the movie version was that Dorothy's slippers were said to be Ruby, when in fact they were SILVER in the book. This change obscures a major issue that burned in the last quater of the 1800's.

The work of Frank Baum presents the view of late 19th century progressives that the economic problems of the common man could be solved if "free silver" could assist in lifting the poor and working American to prosperity, from the deflationary hold of the Gold interests of the time. One major problem then was that the world had shifted to the Gold Standard and there just wasn't enough of the stuff to go around. Anyone owing a debt, payable in Gold dollars, saw the value of his tradable measure, be it, farm commodities, labor, or other good, decreasing in value, versus the value of the dollars borrowed and owed.

Recall, that for nearly the first 100 years of our nation's history, we had operated on a system of Bimetallism (free coinage of both gold and silver in ratio) as did most of the rest of the world. The last quarter of the 19th century brought the demise of Bimetallism everywhere, I believe. Many farmers, trades and industrial workers, and just common folk demanded, once again, for a return to bimetallism, as a way to expand the money supply...Oddly enough, those advocating free Silver were criticized at that time as being inflationists!! We should be so lucky today, ehh?

Some representations within the book that I have seen:

Oz is the United States.
The Emerald City is Washington D.C..
The Wizard of Oz is whoever currently is in power and hides from the public. (The President)
Dorothy represents the goodness and innocence of the American people.
The wicked witch of the East are the moneyed and political interests that keep control.
The Tin man represents the industrial workers--again controlled by the witch and idled through economic depression.
The Scarecrow represents the agrarian interests, who at first meeting may appear somewhat slow, but later exhibit their innate intelligence and shrewdness.
The Cowardly lion? Some think it's anyone who would desire to wrest control, but is unable to do so. William Jennings Bryan (3 time Presidential candidate) is often compared to the Cowardly Lion.

I list the above, but there are many more analogies.

I provide, above, a link to one descriptive article, describing the metaphors provided in the Wizard of Oz, and provide a few snippets below from the article. Enjoy...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From the article by Henry M. Littlefield:

Current historiography tends to criticize the Populist movement for its "delusions, myths and foibles. The Wonderful Wizard of Oz has provided unknowing generations with a gentle and friendly Midwestern critique of the Populist rationale on these very same grounds. Led by naive innocence and protected by good will, the farmer, the laborer and the politician approach the mystic holder of national power to ask for personal fulfillment. Their desires, as well as the Wizard's cleverness in answering them, are all self-delusion. Each of these characters carries within him the solution to his own problem, were he only to view himself objectively. The fearsome Wizard turns out to be nothing more than a common man, capable of shrewd but mundane answers to these self-induced needs. Like any good politician he gives the people what they want. Throughout the story Baum poses a central thought; the American desire for symbols of fulfillment is illusory. Real needs lie elsewhere.

Thus the Wizard cannot help Dorothy, for of all the characters only she has a wish that is selfless, and only she has a direct connection to honest, hopeless human beings. Dorothy supplies real fulfillment when she returns to her aunt and uncle, using the Silver Shoes, and cures some of their misery and heartache. In this way Baum tells us that the Silver crusade at least brought back Dorothy's lovely spirit to the disconsolate plains farmer. Her laughter, love and good will are no small addition to that gray land, although the magic of Silver has been lost forever as a result. The Silver Shoes furnish Dorothy with a magic means of travel. But when she arrives back in Kansas she finds, "The Silver Shoes had fallen off in her flight through the air, and were lost forever in the desert" (p.259). Were the "her" to refer to America in 1900, Baum's statement could hardly be contradicted.

Noteworthy too is Baum's prophetic placement of leadership of Oz after Dorothy's departure. The Scarecrow reigns over the Emerald City, the Tin Woodsman rules in the West and the Lion protects smaller beast in "a grand old forest." Thereby farm interests achieve national importance, industrialism moves West and Bryan commands only a forest full of lesser politicians.

luckypierre

(12/07/2003; 00:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112995)

**** 405.50 ****

The price will consolodate for a couple of days before resuming its upward trend.

Golden Era

(12/07/2003; 01:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112996)

(No Subject)

******$408.20******

POG @ $500 in 2004 is meant to be.

Economan

(12/07/2003; 05:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112997)

*******$400.60*******

$500 gold in 2004 is just a 1 year increase of 25%, a very reasonable expectation. The piles of dollars around the globe are being blown around and will create a huge drift into gold. It's inevitable. (This coming week, I expect a little push back first.)

Truthcaster

(12/07/2003; 07:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112998)

****Contest**** 398.70****

The dollar is due for a little pop this
next week which should push gold back to
test the 390's so thinking here would be
****398.70**** for the contest

luckypierre

(12/07/2003; 08:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112999)

**** 405.5 ****

Posting in tenths to correct my earlier guess.

Believer

(12/07/2003; 08:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113000)

Pricenostication

*****401.4*****
Yes, Gold will go to 500 during 2004, but only briefly! But, so will silver!

sophmore

(12/07/2003; 08:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113001)

call to contest

******* 411.1o ******

Why would Gold pass $500 in 2004 ? I use someone elses reasoning. When the $ was $ 0.90 in the early 80ties Gold was $600.00 . The $ is now below 0.90 so Gold should or might soon be closer to $600.00
KB

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 09:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113002)

More "Electronic" Gold

http://in.news.yahoo.com/031126/58/29toh.htmlsnip;
Mumbai, Nov. 26: Even as a slew of electronic commodity exchanges is being set up in the country, representatives from foreign commodity exchanges are flocking here to tap the fast emerging opportunities.

Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre executive director David Rutledge, who was in town recently, said, "Dubai is a point of consumption like Singapore and not a centre of production like India."

Rutledge scouted for synergies even as the Indian electronic commodity exchanges have started to get organised. Last week, a commodity exchange, promoted by Financial Technologies and a couple of commodity associations, was activated by Mukesh Ambani. The Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange are also promoting commodity exchanges.

However, Rutledge was here to sell a new concept called electronic commodity receipt. The new Dubai Commodity Receipts (DCR) system is a major step forward to ease trades in commodities. "Warehouse receipt is the basic document for commodity trade finance. Using this receipt, a borrower can prove to a bank that he holds a commodity of a certain type and quality in a warehouse," Rutledge said.

comment;
Step right up folks and get your ELCTRONIC GOLD! Guaranteed to avoid all the muss and fuss of handling that heavy metal. No need to store metal covered with who knows what awful germs and just waiting to be purloined by theives in the night. No worries about paper documents or other tangible records that are so easy to lose. We have a cyberspace storehouse far removed from earthly threats and dangers. Just tell us how many cyber ounces you want and we'll rack them up as soon as we receive your payment. We're also working on a special service to transfer your gold to your afterlife upon proper verification of your passing.

CyberGold, get you some and let us do the driving.

Boilermaker and Devout Skeptic

steady

(12/07/2003; 09:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113003)

43 + >= $1 FRN increas. gets 10 grm free! huh?

the way i see to trade physical gold on the china exchange is with the following ratio in mind buy 43 ten gram contracts or 430 grams, when the price of gold goes up 1 federal reserve note, you could sell, nine 10 gram contracts back and have 10 grams for free, then you take the fiat and do it again. yes there is a trading fee invlved but im sure another .01-.10 increase in the pog would cover it as well.

yes your fiat will have ever decreasing gold purchasing power and you will have to have ever increasing price rises to keep pace with the 43 to one ratio but thats why it be imperative to get in now with as much fiat turned to physical gold so u get the most gold for your fiat, but thats how id want to do my gold mining in the 21st centuary

Cometose

(12/07/2003; 10:04:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113004)

asteroids/security./gold

Just when I thought the government and elitist control freaks had socially engineered everything and all the peoples of the earth into a hypnotic stupor using mass media to prevail upon our feeble minds politically correct perceptions of reality......and when bankers have derivitized all possible scenarios because of the wonder of computerdriven models to bring us EConomic BLISS........
Darned if the unknown isn't producing something outside of the control freaks' social engineering perview and realm........an asteroid coming betweeen the earth and the moom 93,000 miles from earth right now.........hmmmmmm.......

There are more on the way , too....I'm sure, based on my sources that indicate our Solar System has now entered a very interesting place in the universe that is less stable than where we have been ......before....

God is NOT dead, The BIBLE is TRUE ; and ITS PROPHESIES REAL.......It's time to quit listening to the NOISE, To LOOK UP ......and PRAY

Gold will weather this STORM ......but if in the future an asteroid hits the moon in big enough mass to dislodge part of the moon's mass....
it will cause an alteration to occur in the TIMEPIECE in the Universe .....and the DAYS ON EARTH WILL GROW SHORTER because the friction caused by the electromagnetic alteration in the clock will be lessened.....the earth will spin faster....causing the days to go by faster...

THE MEDIA and GOVT will be coming with much deception and lies in the future ......
The CURTAIN is however, still going to go up in OZ and reveal the LIES , DARKNESS AND DECEPTION.....

Our choice then will be the same as today , whether to embrace the TRUTH or LIES , embrace the LIGHT or DARKNESS
WE are either sojourners here , or we are subjects...who owe our allegiance to some Platform.....I will live and die a sojourner .....Subjects ( of the Monarchy) and being subject became passe in the 1700's

phil288

(12/07/2003; 10:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113005)

******401.5******

Thanks again to MK for this unique opportunity at temporary fame. I think that although gold may well trade for over $500 in 2004, by year's end deflation will be biting hard, interest rates will be up, and even gold will be sold down to raise fiat for imploding debt repayments. Serious inflation will be on the horizon, but not yet. Gold will still be the place to be in a physical sense. Got gold!

Mountain Top

(12/07/2003; 10:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113006)

******$211.00******

Yes, gold will most certainly hit $500.00 /oz. in 2004. It would have hit that and more before now but for the manipulation that has taken place and is taking place. Apparently, the plan is to allow the worthless FRN down softly, hence the intervention. They cannot prop up a worthless dollar for ever. Less than worthless actually since it is a symbol of debt of historical proportions.

Mountain Top

(12/07/2003; 10:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113007)

******$411.00******

Please correct my guess from $211.00 to $411.00. Thank you

Houston

(12/07/2003; 11:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113008)

****$406.30****

I believe with Taiwan's referendum vote set in March 2004 and its passing of independence will prompt an attack by China. This single act will cause gold to, at least momentarily, reach $500 next year.

One last note. In traveling by air recently has anyone wondered what a mint tube of 20 one-ounce American gold eagles look like in the airport security scanning screen? I put one in my carry-on luggage and was amused with the TSA running my bag through their system three times, mystified as to what a solid black rectangular shaped item (on a color monitor) could be. I was required to take the tube out of my bag and show it to one of the TSA personnel. She said she just wanted to see the container. She said I was NOT required to show her what was inside the tube even though it is translucent. I decided to show her with the understanding that she wouldn't tell anybody. Her jaw almost hit the examining table when I showed her the top eagle in the tube. No doubt she didn't keep it a secret for long.

Bound Spirit

(12/07/2003; 11:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113009)

*****396.0*********

Will the dollar collapse enough to be equal to 0.002 troy ounces of gold? Probably, although I continue to be amazed at the abilities of global CB's to engineer this slow release. I guess if I was trying to tread water in a glass bowl, my attention would be well concentrated, too.

Too bad there's a lid on the bowl and the water just keeps coming. Keep treading anyway - who knows, hope springs eternal.

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 12:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113011)

Grasping at the Statistics on the Self-Employed

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/06/business/06impact.htmlECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Grasping at the Statistics on the Self-Employed
By FLOYD NORRIS

Published: December 6, 2003

The self-employed came to the rescue last month, and the result was that the unemployment rate came down even as companies were hiring fewer people than most economists had expected.

The self-employed are a group that statisticians have a hard time dealing with, and the apparent growth in that group may or may not be a good sign for the economy. Some people who say they are self-employed may really be out of work and trying to bring in money as consultants or freelance workers. Others may be doing very well, living a dream of boss-free success.

In any case, the government reported that the number of self-employed workers rose by 156,000 last month, to 9.2 million. That gain was a primary reason that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9 percent. . .

But John Vail, a senior strategist of Mizuho Securities USA, disagreed. "This is quite a strong employment report," he said. "Nonfarm payrolls were disappointing, but when combining with the rise in self-employed, which include many Internet-based entrepreneurs, the number was very healthy."

Mr. Vail's examples of such entrepreneurs included spammers, the people who fill e-mail in boxes with unwanted mail. It is not clear how many of them there are, but there is no doubt most Americans would be quite happy if there were fewer.

Goldilox:

A brand new spin on the bone pile. Last year, the unemployed were called "unwilling to look for work", Now they're being called "self-employed". When Mr. Floyd talks about the two exrtremes (hopeful "consultants" vs. real self employed), I imagine the correlation between many millions of musicians vs. thousands of self-supporting music professionals, or the similar disparity between millions of amatuer athletes vs. thousands of professional athletes. Success rates of 1:1000 are not encouraging or even realistic for most people.

Vail's point about "spammers" and "internet" self-employed is poorly thought out, as well. Spamming is rapidly becoming illegal in many states, so he is suggesting a rise in crime as a solution to employment problems. The various internet schemes like buying and reselling "widgets" on Ebay are more often the last gasp of the desparate to capitalize on the huge internet audience when their local market is saturated. Most successful internet retailers are already successful brick and mortar retailers who use the internet to grow their share. They are not as likely to be new entrepenuers.

Melting Pot

(12/07/2003; 12:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113012)

*****$400.20*****

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." --Human Action, p. 572.

The American economy and dollar, like Enron has been built upon credit expansion that will contract pushing gold to new highs....

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/07/2003; 13:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113013)

This year you can beat the holiday rush

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/necklaces/Byzantine-grad.htmlAvoid the crowded malls.
Shop here and you may park conveniently in your own driveway!
Browse leisurely through our online catalog.
Enjoy fast reliable FedEx delivery right to your door.

Golden gifts from a name you know you can trust.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. -- since 1973
www.usagold-jewelry.com

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 13:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113014)

Holiday Sales Are Restrained So Far

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34880-2003Dec4.htmlLuxury, Discount Stores Fare Best Early in Season

By Dina ElBoghdady
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 5, 2003; Page E01

The crowds that swarmed the stores the day after Thanksgiving did not lift November retail sales as much as some of the nation's largest chains had hoped, especially at department stores that cater to middle-income consumers.

After tallying results from 74 retail chains yesterday, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York found that sales at stores open at least a year (or same-store sales) were up 3.6 percent in November from a year earlier. But they were below the bank's 4 percent forecast and extremely uneven. Luxury retailers and off-price chains did booming business, while many merchants between struggled.

"The retail industry is in a transition to better times," said Michael P. Niemira, the economist who tallied the sales results. "But that transition is not smooth." . . .

The pattern makes sense because spending among upper-end consumers who frequent luxury chains has been picking up since mid-year, said Frank Badillo, senior economist at consulting firm Retail Forward Inc.

A year ago, these high-income consumers tightened their purse strings when their investments took a beating. But now that the stock market is on a rebound, they're spending more freely, Badillo said.

"But the middle- and down-market consumers, mostly blue-collar workers, have been hurt by continuing issues with the job market and unemployment," he said. . . .

But that [third-quarter] momentum will be tough to sustain given that third-quarter spending was fueled by one-time factors, such as the Bush administration's tax rebate checks and mortgage refinancing money that is no longer flowing as freely with interest rates off their lows, Hoyt said.

"Some cash may be left over," Hoyt said. "But the consumers are not receiving anything like that amount of money right now."

Goldilox:

Santa's elves may be joining the bone pile soon. High end sales and low end sales are looking OK, but middle of the market stores are struggling still. No one is proclaiming miracles in the retail markets.

Chris Powell

(12/07/2003; 13:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113015)

Sinclair see the big one ahead as Turk reports breakout of 'Fear Index'

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1799Sinclair sees "the big one," a "runaway freight train"
with "$529" written on it, as Turk reports breakout
in the "Fear Index":

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1799

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 13:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113016)

Investor nation?

snippit:

Investor nation: The number of U.S. households that own mutual funds fell to 53.3 million in July, (47.9 percent of total households) from 54.2 million (49.6 percent) in July 2002, according to a survey by the Investment Company Institute, a fund-industry trade group. The survey also found that the number of individuals owning mutual funds slipped to 91.2 million from 94.9 million in 2002. About 33 percent of all households -- or 36.4 million -- owned mutual funds inside employer-sponsored retirement plans, the institute said.

Goldilox:

I found this at the end of an article on long-term health care and individual retirement funds shortages. It should be the headliner, but the press doesn't like to tell us how many folks are jumping ship as a reaction to the MF scandals. I bet some of those 2.3 million souls are investing their money right here at CPM!!

Merlinsen

(12/07/2003; 14:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113017)

*****415.1*****

500$ in 2004? Oh yes, and much more. We are in the slow motion part of a geometric progression, moving to the rapidely accelerating part that will lead us to the explosive part. NIA.

Cuda

(12/07/2003; 14:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113018)

******401.9******

Yes, POG will hit $500 in 2004.
With elections around the corner, and the strong dollar policy nonsense being pushed into the mainstream by the government, so many people are losing trust in these manicured reports, our leadership, and our buck.
While doing my christmas shopping, everything I looked at had a "MADE IN" some other country. With the dollar getting weaker I welcome all the tourist to the USA, so they may purchase all the USA sovieners they want that were "MADE IN" China. It is great being the middle man and taking a profit.
What will happen when we no longer can get these cheap prices? What will McDonalds do when they can longer afford the cheap toy in the kids meal?
We are headed for some interesting times up ahead.

"Happy Holidays"

Cuda

ageka

(12/07/2003; 14:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113019)

Gold Contest

***414.60***
Gold will go over 500 because gold will start to rise in all other currencies and with a declining dollar 500 and much more is assured .
AGK

otish mountain

(12/07/2003; 14:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113020)

******407.10******

A call to contest brings this dwarf from his winters work of restoration of runes deep within the mountain. The larder is full of summer's bounty, and the last of the wild berry wine has been bottled. Efforts now are directed to preparations for the season of merriment.

Of the question our Sir Good Host has asked of us I must respond with the answer that Yes we surely will see gold priced at $500USD in 2004. Although we may be jubilant in seeing this price reached, the reasons for this rise will be disturbing.

I suspect most here at this round table have made preparations for the coming financial future by first becoming aware then preparing. When does one know when he is ready?

Gandalf the White

(12/07/2003; 14:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113021)

Sir Otish Mountain

Like I tell the Hobbits --- "One can never have ENOUGH yellow !"
<;-)

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 14:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113022)

Investments

This forum is rightly focused on gold as an investment asset with 5000 years of credentials. Most of us here subscribe to gold's enduring and honest qualities compared to the myriad of alternative "investments". But I am never satisfied with a one tune repertoire and am thinking about what else will be become more valuable than fiat currency.

History seems to point to classic works of art, antiques, rare things with a certified identity and productive physical assets in the ground that can't be moved such as farmland, forestland, oil, coal, metals and other stuff that is essential to our civilization. All of the US$ fiat out there will start going into this stuff. Clearly gold is the the most marketable of them all. But for those of you who want to diversify and have something more than a "stash" of precious metals think also about investing in a piece of America that will endure and prosper. Otherwise we will become owned by foreign interests.

Boilermaker

Goldendome

(12/07/2003; 14:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113023)

**************409.40**************

Will Gold hit $500. in "04? Hopefully so, As the public, if not Governments, move to personally remonitize Gold (and Silver ?). The Government controlled paper programs are running deeper into trouble; the public is slowly going to catch on and begin to protect themselves.

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 14:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113024)

Invest in America

@ Boilermaker

You are very right in principle. However, the current FED sponsored RE bubble makes finding bargains difficult. Getting hornswaggled into a million dollar mortgage to "buy a piece of America" right now is not necessarily the most prudent investment.

However, as BB reminds us, stay out of debt (pay the house off), stash a few months supplies (don't forget fresh water) and save PMs as liquidity for future unknowns.

omegaman

(12/07/2003; 15:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113025)

*****417.20*****

Will Gold surpass $500 in 2004? Yes. Emphatically, Yes. Why you may ask. The big three deficits, as shown in many commentaries as well as---Are you ready?---History once again repeating itself as it always has and always will. Let's call it human nature and the inability of the general populace to grasp the reality of "those who do not understand history are doomed to repeat it" again and again and..... All the pieces are in play. Let the games begin.

Dollar Bill

(12/07/2003; 15:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113027)

*>*.........+

Sir Boilermaker,
You can play the up and downs of the bubbles.
You know the fed is going to inflate certain bubbles, and that certain factors are going to result from this giant
fiat bubblemania.
Real estate scares me, I cant imagine the thinking going on in all the purchasers minds. But, there is money to be made on lemmings as long as you get out of the race just before they come to the cliff.
Other things are a no brainer, but it takes someone to clue us in. Like commodities should have been an early forum guess as something that would bubble as a result of the fed behaviours. And I am sure, that if we go through archives, we will see notice given here to that effect well in advance of it happening.
We were well notified about the crest of the stock market bubble slow turn at the top just before the bear hit back in 2000. It was discussed here in tech terms clearly just as it was peaking slowly just before it turned.
Also, dot com cash burn rates were discussed here giving lots of clues as to which companies were good short bets.
Also, Gold was proclaimed an insane value when it touched its lows. And here, the 15 european central bank announcement about stopping gold leaseing was discussed in detail and it helped us in decideing what actions to take.
Also, the bond bubble was seen in advance here.
Also, the dollar bubble was seen in advance here.

You really cant say this forum has a one song playlist.
Every sensible financial bet was discussed here in time to make your move ahead of the market.

You can even play gold against and with the fed.
They support declines that you can make money on. And they
allow, or cant fight, rises. You can make money on them also. Buying and selling highs and lows.

Some guys are getting incomprehensibly wealthy riding the bubbles. Any of them would be well served reading this forum. Sir Rich has been alerting about the silver market.
Have you discussed it with him?
Read his posts? Black Blade has done an amazing job keeping us abreast of gas news. Amongst other important issues.
How much could you make by reading just these two guys?
Not to mention all the other posters and MK.

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 16:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113028)

Amen

@ Dollar Bill

I can only add "Amen" to your list!

And, if this isn't every reader's home page, you better have a damn good reason!

Cougar

(12/07/2003; 16:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113029)

**** $411.40 ****

We will see Gold at $500.00 in 2004 because the upward trajectory is well under way as the US$ crumbles. There is only one direction for Gold - up!

Goldilox

(12/07/2003; 16:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113030)

Aussie Gold trade

So far this morning in Sydney, every glich down is met by a tick back up. I have never seen a flatter chart when there was actually trading taking place. Don't know the volumes, so they might be a factor.

otish mountain

(12/07/2003; 17:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113031)

Sir Gandalf

As I Suspected. A continuous process of preparation and of learning.

Caradoc

(12/07/2003; 17:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113032)

****501.0****

A big "no" to 2004 but only because I see "500 by Christmas" as a nice present for all of us, just as "400 by Thanksgiving" was a nice complement to the previous holiday.

A merry winter solstice to all, and as the days begin to lengthen, may more of your friends and relatives begin to "see the light" about how to preserve their wealth.

Caradoc

mas

(12/07/2003; 17:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113033)

From the Privateer on the Euro.

The Euro is strengthening against the US Dollar because the European Union (EU) actually has a global
current account surplus. In fact, Europe's surplus just widened to 7.7 Billion Euros in September, while
the US stands with record breaking deficits on current account of approximately $US 46 Billion - each
and every month. Further, the European Central Bank (ECB), in sharp contrast to the Bank of Japan
(BOJ), is NOT aggressively accumulating US Dollars. The BOJ, acting at the behest of the Ministry of
Finance, has sold a record 17.8 TRILLION Yen ($US 164 Billion) this year alone to try to stem an 8.5
gain in the Yen that threatens the country's export industries. The ECB has calmly seen the Euro climb to
above 1.20 per the US Dollar. Why should the ECB worry? The EU group of nations combined all stand
with a global current account as well as trade surplus and even more important, this has been
accomplished WITHOUT a rip snorting internal credit expansion. What a higher Euro does for the EU
economies is to lower their costs of core resources, oil, etc. That is the same as lowering the operating
costs for most of their plant and equipment. Europe, with these now lower input costs, can actually in
many cases, afford to lower the international prices of their exports and still not take any loss.

Great Albino Bat

(12/07/2003; 17:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113034)

Hear! Hear! The GAB seconds Goldilox and Dollar Bill!!

Indeed, thanks to our host MK and his wise supervision, this site, in recent years, has registered a remarkable record of foresight, prudence and good judgement, contributed by thinking individuals all over the world.

Here we have had at hand - AT NO COST TO THE READER! - an outstanding fountain of sound advice on all the investment opportunities or pitfalls of our time.

World's Best! That's www.usagold.com/cpmforum!

Thank you BB, Randy, MK and admin!

The GAB

21mabry

(12/07/2003; 18:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113035)

Bob Prechter

On Jim Puplavas show Bob Prechter continues to say gold is not the place to be and he does not see silver prices rising higher in the future.From what I have seen most eliote wavers insist gold has only risen against U.S.D and is not in a world wide bull market.Mr.Prechter says the big fiat will be made in shorting the Dow and S&P indexes.21

Operative

(12/07/2003; 18:25:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113036)

The Black Knight

Forget "Big Blue" and that Russian too! The best game is now being played out in real time. Some viewers have even speculated that the Black Knight aka Sir Greenspan may be delt his fate by the lowly esteemed, golden pawn, aka, goldbug. Black Knight has left only limited moves, and the timer is counting down.

Cometose

(12/07/2003; 18:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113037)

Mabry post / Prechter commentary

In my time observing Churches and Market Prognosticators I have become aware of a principle that may be pertinent to both venues......When small churches need money part of their networking scheme toward supporting growth and building and programs sometimes involves recieving money from larger organizations.....In the process the larger organization takes the reigns over so to speak as to what the donee organization may say and promote as well as what they may not promote......In a addition to Prechter not promoting gold .....Jim Rogers doesn't overtly speak much about it either.....but he does speak favorably of commodities in the future because of CHINA DEMAND ON THEM ......I believe that Prechter and ROGERS are mute about the Metals because of some fraternity that each belong too that makes them mute on the metals arena......or they may be sell outs..........It's a choice people make ......on whether Truth is a priority or not.......in everything or just some things.......

Gandalf the White

(12/07/2003; 18:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113038)

REMINDER ---- LESS than six (6) hours before POG entry DEADLINE !!

NOW is the time to enter if you have not !
<;-)

Dollar Bill

(12/07/2003; 18:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113039)

*>*

Sir GAB, and amen to you.
You know, the list goes on and on.
We were also educated about virtually all investment areas involving carry trades, EURO rise in advance, dollar decline in advance, Yen and Japanese market issues, China trade and currency news, deep details of financial mechanisms at work in wall street, third world actions and thier opportunities, early notification of a vast amount of issues. Any one of them could have been to a forum members financial benefit or if not, another part of thier education and entertainment (well, it is interesting!).
And all the posters personal stories and commentaries.
We even get the best bear photo ever.
...

Operative

(12/07/2003; 18:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113040)

Rubber Rulers

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3950726Wall St is just as "creative" as the US Govt in compiling its figures. A good read, a good print/hand out to those who think all is well in wonderland. Physical gold, so easy to keep tabs on, if one is counting.

Gold Graber

(12/07/2003; 19:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113041)

$$$$$$398.30$$$$$$

$$$$$$398.30$$$$$$ No, gold will not go over $500.00 in 2004 because the ruling party will need to keep the wheels on the bus to get re-elected. If that happens, then gold will take off like a rocket as they finish their plundering in their last 4 year term.

Wky_Woodsman

(12/07/2003; 19:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113042)

****406.5*****

POG =$500+ in 2004? Yes. Pressure on the dollar, pressure on other currencies. Pressure on interest rates, pressure on RE prices. Pressure on resources, especially ME oil. If the meisters can control it, an orderly march thru POG=$500+. If not, the lions will be hungry.
Wky

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 19:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113043)

*******$406.5*******

Mine is not a very courageous vote for gold tomorrow but one of pragmatism. As for the $500 milestone it will happen sooner than most expect. Sometime in the year 2004 the gold market will melt up as the US$ goes down and the cartel is routed.

Boilermaker

timbervision

(12/07/2003; 19:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113044)

*****$411.80*****

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we won't see a $500 paper gold price in 2004. I had thought that $400 wasn't possible because a rising price would trigger a massive short squeeze. It hasn't, but why? How precarious is the current situation for the bullion banks? I am going to stay with this earlier understanding and suggest that we will stay well under $500 as a result of aggressive manipulation by the financial brotherhood. If they can't keep their scam in tact then we still won't see $500 gold, rather it will gap past that small, tiny, unimpressive number.

Remarx

(12/07/2003; 19:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113045)

@Goldilox, msg #113016

Right you are! I am one of those 2.3M people who no longer has any money in the stock market in any form. Some of it did indeed go into PMs from CPM. And I do not intend to go near stocks in the forseeable future. I left just before the MF scandals, but have read enough now on the US debt/defict and P/E ratio fundamentals now to be wary.

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 19:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113046)

*******411.8*****

Rats! That Waskelly Wacky Woodsman took my bet. Here's my backup.

Boilermaker

Waverider

(12/07/2003; 19:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113047)

Boilermaker...

...third time lucky if you're quick... :)

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 19:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113048)

******$403.8*****

I give up. One more bet. Please let it be untaken.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/07/2003; 19:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113049)

Waverider and Others

Please let me have my third choice. I'm a poor old man who has to get some sleep.

Boilermaker

SWEET 16

(12/07/2003; 20:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113050)

Contest

****485.00****

An additional 30% drop in the dollar will yield a 30% rise in gold. This will happen in 2004. I can hardly wait.

Sweet 16 (now 17)

Ananse

(12/07/2003; 20:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113051)

*****415.5*****

$500 gold - yes, with that bouncing ball from the silent movie era keeping time - up and down. If the ups and downs were put on a muscial scale, what tune would we hear? I will be 62 on December 9, so I hope I will hear Happy Birthday!

Gandalf the White

(12/07/2003; 21:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113052)

TA TA TAAAAAA Tick Tock !!!!

ABOUT THREE (3) HOURS to go before Entry DEADLINE !Don't wait like the "POOR" Ol'e Sir Boilermaker and take three tries before he finally got an "UNTAKEN" entry.
IT may get active near the CLOSE !! YOU could "miss out" !
<;-)

Maiden Fan

(12/07/2003; 21:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113053)

****396.50****

I don't think we will see gold hit $500/oz in 2004. The fact that this is an election year means that the administration will pull out all stops to make the economy appear healthy going into the 2004 presidential election. There are other powerful foreign interests aligned with this administration that will help to see to it that the price stays down to help get this president re-elected.

7nomads

(12/07/2003; 21:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113054)

*****403.0*****

Will Gold reach $500 in 2004? No, but it will get close. The effects of inflationary policy cannot be held off forever.

Trapper

(12/07/2003; 21:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113055)

****404.90****

I do belive that we will hit $500.00 in "04 as the public will not buy until we get higher. I saw this in the 70's, once gold and silver went up big then they all wanted some but try to sell them on gold now...no way. The madness of crowds indeed. Well just "live small" and enjoy the ride.

GoldCoaster

(12/07/2003; 21:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113056)

*****409.70*****

Will Gold be at US$ 500 sometime next year? I think it will but to me that is relativly unimportant as the POG has been going backwards in my currency.I will feel a little more jubilant if it breaks out in A$ terms.AS Gold shows the way in a good many currency's people here will realize Gold for what it is too.

Draco

(12/07/2003; 21:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113057)

****419.10****

The POG has been rising at an ever increasing rate over the past two or three years. The chart on gold (and mining stocks) is starting to look parabolic. At the current exponental rate of increase, gold will have no problem of reaching $500 in 2004.
The powers that be will try to keep everything in control at least until the November elections are over. After that ...all bets are off. I won't be surprised to see $600 by the end of next year. Get every little bit of gold (and silver) you can while it's so heavy for the FRN's. Thanks Wizard and MK for all you do.

Electrum

(12/07/2003; 21:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113058)

*** 411.7 ***

500 Gold in 2004 Yes !!!!! The time for just weights and measures has arrived. To the bankers its a barbaric
relic But the LORD said that the gold of that land is good. Gen 2-12 I cast my lot with the LORD. Fiat is an unjust measure as its value can be usurped by the bankers

Gandalf the White

(12/07/2003; 22:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113059)

TA TA TAAAAA ABOUT TWO (2) HOURS to go before entry DEADLINE !

POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of about 22:00 (Denver time) SUNDAY 12/7/03

ONLY TWO (2) HOURS to go before ENTRY DEADLINE !!! Tick Tock, Tick Tock !

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !

Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $501.0 **** Caradoc (12/7/03; 17:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 113032)

**** $500.0 **** goldquest (12/6/03; 12:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112968)

**** $485.0 **** SWEET 16 (12/7/03; 20:21:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113050)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $419.1 **** Draco (12/7/03; 21:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 113057)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $417.2 **** omegaman (12/7/03; 15:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 113025)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.5 **** Ananse (12/7/03; 20:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 113051)

**** $415.1 **** Merlinsen (12/7/03; 14:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 113017)
**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.6 **** ageka (12/7/03; 14:25:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113019)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (12/06/03; 21:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112990)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.6 **** Tranquility Base (12/06/03; 22:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112991)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)

**** $411.8 **** timbervision (12/7/03; 19:39:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113044)
**** $411.7 **** Electrum (12/7/03; 21:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113058)
**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $411.4 **** Cougar (12/7/03; 16:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 113029)

**** $411.1 **** sophmore (12/7/03; 08:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 113001)
**** $411.0 **** Mountain Top (12/7/03; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 113007)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)
**** $409.7 **** GoldCoaster (12/7/03; 21:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113056)
**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.4 **** Goldendome (12/7/03; 14:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113023)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.5 **** heavy mettle (12/06/03; 20:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112989)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)
**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)
**** $407.1 **** otish mountain (12/7/03; 14:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 113020)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

**** $406.3 **** Houston (12/7/03; 11:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113008)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.5 **** luckypierre (12/07/03; 00:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112995)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)
**** $404.9 **** Trapper (12/7/03; 21:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 113055)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.4 **** Shanti (12/6/03; 15:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112976)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.8 **** Boilermaker (12/7/03; 19:46:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 113048)

**** $403.6 **** commish (12/06/03; 22:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112992)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $403.0 **** 7nomads (12/7/03; 21:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113054)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.9 **** Cuda (12/7/03; 14:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113018)

**** $401.5 **** phil288 (12/7/03; 10:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 113005)

**** $401.4 **** Believer (12/7/03; 08:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113000)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $400.6 **** Economan (12/7/03; 05:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112997)

**** $400.2 **** Melting Pot (12/7/03; 12:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113012)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.7 **** Truthcaster (12/7/03; 07:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112998)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)
$$$$ $398.3 $$$$ Gold Graber (12/7/03; 19:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113041)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $396.5 **** Maiden Fan (12/7/03; 21:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 113053)

**** $396.0 **** Bound Spirit (12/7/03; 11:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 113009)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $391.7 **** Crosswind (12/6/03; 17:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 112981)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)

Yukon

(12/07/2003; 22:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113060)

*******$411.90*******

Gold should easily hit $500 in 2004. Both fundamentals and the technical picuture look bullish while the internals of the market are all systems go for moves to new highs.

Get your physical gold now and store it yourself. Just be sure to have insurance of your own making.

Gold...warming the hearts, minds, and freedoms of men in the great Northeast!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

Simply Me

(12/07/2003; 22:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113061)

*****$435.00*****

Yes, I think we'll see gold break $500 per oz. early in 2004 as interest rates begin to rise, and gold's recent gains get a little air-time on the financial channels. Then we'll see a retracement, and all the financial talking heads will be spouting "Well, that was it folks. Gold bull's over. You can all come back to the stock market now."

I expect gold to go sideways somewhere in the mid-$400's from mid to late 2004, while equities put on a nice election-year show. Then, after Bush is re-elected, all economic hell's gonna break loose sometime between 2005 and 2008. Bush, Snow, and a possibly reluctant Greenspan have held the tide back longer than anyone thought they could. But the dam is sprouting leaks all over the place. I can smell gold-rush in the air, and I'll bet Mr. Greenspan can, too. I see him retiring in 2005. He'll want out before his reputation is besmirched by the economic pain this country is going to go through as the US dollar loses its hegemony.

Simply Me
(Been reading everyone's posts every day. Great stuff!)

Homer

(12/07/2003; 22:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113062)

****397.3****

Gold will not go over $500 in 2004. The POG will continue to be manipulated to keep it under $500.

DoubleEagle

(12/07/2003; 22:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113063)

****404.3****

I hate to be a pessimist, but I think they'll probably keep gold capped below $500 next year. I do think we'll see steady trade about $450, which from my perspective will still be nice. The election will be all, and keeping the good news coming will be a high priority. If we do see $500, I think it will be post-election, late November-December.

heavy mettle

(12/07/2003; 23:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113064)

Gold Shares

With the ever increasing interest in gold and much liquidity running around for a home, the PTB would rather have dollars placed in gold and silver shares than the real thing for obvious reasons. The lagging XAU hedged dogs still have to be fed for show while helping them offset losses. Simple logic then would have it that the recent run-up in gold shares is far from over and will continue into a parabolic short term bull market top. Then a retraction only after most of the buy high sell low crowd are on board. Time frame for a correction should be within the next few months.

I tend to believe that liquidity can be and IS directed by the FED after creation through incentives and blatant market manipulation. Meanwhile we are conditioned to believe the erroneous fact that the FED cannot control liquidity once out the door because it's in the hands of the individual banks and borrowers. Funneling of funds to different markets is easier to control afterwards and is then easily spun as asset appreciation rather than inflation; many asset classes are left out of CPI for possibly these reasons.

Gandalf the White

(12/08/2003; 00:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113065)

OFFICAL LISTING of December POG CONTEST ENTRIES !!

GOOD LUCK to all -- and we will see the WINNER on Tuesday afternoon !Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
===
Contest Entries

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $501.0 **** Caradoc (12/7/03; 17:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 113032)

**** $500.0 **** goldquest (12/6/03; 12:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112968)

**** $485.0 **** SWEET 16 (12/7/03; 20:21:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113050)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $435.0 **** Simply Me (12/7/03; 22:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113061)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $419.1 **** Draco (12/7/03; 21:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 113057)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $417.2 **** omegaman (12/7/03; 15:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 113025)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.5 **** Ananse (12/7/03; 20:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 113051)

**** $415.1 **** Merlinsen (12/7/03; 14:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 113017)
**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.6 **** ageka (12/7/03; 14:25:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113019)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (12/06/03; 21:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112990)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.6 **** Tranquility Base (12/06/03; 22:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112991)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)
**** $411.9 **** Yukon (12/7/03; 22:11:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113060)
**** $411.8 **** timbervision (12/7/03; 19:39:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113044)
**** $411.7 **** Electrum (12/7/03; 21:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113058)
**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $411.4 **** Cougar (12/7/03; 16:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 113029)

**** $411.1 **** sophmore (12/7/03; 08:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 113001)
**** $411.0 **** Mountain Top (12/7/03; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 113007)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)
**** $409.7 **** GoldCoaster (12/7/03; 21:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113056)
**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.4 **** Goldendome (12/7/03; 14:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113023)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.5 **** heavy mettle (12/06/03; 20:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112989)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)
**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)
**** $407.1 **** otish mountain (12/7/03; 14:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 113020)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

**** $406.3 **** Houston (12/7/03; 11:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113008)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.5 **** luckypierre (12/07/03; 00:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112995)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)
**** $404.9 **** Trapper (12/7/03; 21:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 113055)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.4 **** Shanti (12/6/03; 15:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112976)
**** $404.3 **** DoubleEagle (12/7/03; 22:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 113063)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.8 **** Boilermaker (12/7/03; 19:46:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 113048)

**** $403.6 **** commish (12/06/03; 22:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112992)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $403.0 **** 7nomads (12/7/03; 21:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113054)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.9 **** Cuda (12/7/03; 14:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113018)

**** $401.5 **** phil288 (12/7/03; 10:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 113005)

**** $401.4 **** Believer (12/7/03; 08:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113000)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $400.6 **** Economan (12/7/03; 05:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112997)

**** $400.2 **** Melting Pot (12/7/03; 12:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113012)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.7 **** Truthcaster (12/7/03; 07:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112998)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)
$$$$ $398.3 $$$$ Gold Graber (12/7/03; 19:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113041)

**** $397.3 **** Homer (12/7/03; 22:34:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113062)
**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $396.5 **** Maiden Fan (12/7/03; 21:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 113053)

**** $396.0 **** Bound Spirit (12/7/03; 11:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 113009)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $391.7 **** Crosswind (12/6/03; 17:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 112981)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)

spotlight

(12/08/2003; 00:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113066)

gold

$407.30
The price of gold seems to be engineered (controlled) upward at a pace that will not alarm the financial system or the public. This has to be a very costly enterprise for those responsible. This probably limits the ones that can be at the control center to the suspected equalization stablization fund or its likes. However, in the case of an overwhelming financial event, gold will do what gold will do.

The other type of event I keep waiting for is to find one day that the real stuff is in very short supply and there is a waiting period for delivery. What happens then to the new gold exchange funds that purport to buy gold for new accounts and place it in vaults? $500 gold is a good bet for 2004. However, should one of the above or the unexpected occur, it's katie bar the door.

The Invisible Hand

(12/08/2003; 01:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113067)

SMIIIIIIIILE

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uThe Nikkei fell more than 3% today.

The Invisible Hand

(12/08/2003; 02:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113068)

Keep smiling!

Gold is up two dollars in London vis-a-vis Friday's NY close.

Dollar Bill

(12/08/2003; 03:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113069)

. , .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1102210,00.htmlJapan wants yen to be the "anchor of Asia"

DummyANI

(12/08/2003; 04:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113070)

Is it possible to keep a currency value by a trade-surplus ?

http://www.mof.go.jp/english/gbb/e1506.htmJapanese trade-surplus in 2003 is expected 16.7 trillion Yen.
http://www.mof.go.jp/bop/p15h_fy1.htm
But a total amount of Japanese Government Bonds are increased 11.5 percent at a year-to year rate.
This implies that 517.1 trillion yen (in 2003 June) from 463.6 trillion yen (in 2002 June) is increased by 53.4 trillion yen in a year. Nearly 30 percent is covered by the trade-surplus.
During the same period, an interest rate of JGB is declined from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

If the interest rate of JGB is up at only 3 percent in the next year, the total amount of JGBs will be increased by 14.5 percent, that is 75 trillion yen.
This is nearly equal to a government budget in 2004.

Japan is nearly in a bankruptcy, but a great many traders want to buy Yen, instead of US dollar. I cannot understand why a forex trader wants to buy Yen.

Bolting of POG is beginning at European market. It is very interesting to see a spike of POG over $430 per oz.

D-ANI:Buy a gold, sell a Yen

misetich

(12/08/2003; 05:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113071)

*** 419.7 ***

500 Gold in 2004 Yes !

Aften an initial trading range and consolidation between $380-425 - the price will soar over $500.00 late in 2004 - as it will in all other currencies

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/08/2003; 05:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113072)

When in rains it pours US $

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493784959&p=1012571727088Snip:

US dollar may face renewed pressure

Analysts say that a series of tactical incentives for market participants is likely to put the dollar under further pressure in the weeks ahead. Foreign exchange economists say that European companies with dollar earnings due next year are busy protecting their revenues in euro terms by hedging against further falls in the US currency, putting more downward pressure on the greenback. "A lot of them missed the euro's rise this year and, for those with a requirement to put on hedges before the year-end, this will force them to buy euros," said Nick Parsons, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank.

***************
Misetich

A vicious cycle has barely begun. Each and everyday foreigners holding US $ see their portfolio evaporate -

What are they going to do with those $ reserves? ... one strategy is to add some more ala Japan - who print Yen adinfinitum

Tree preservationists are alarmed at the speed at which millions of forest trees are bein chopped up during the night for fiat printing -

The paper recycling business is also booming - as green paper is being substitued with "colored ones"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/08/2003; 05:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113073)

Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493786978&p=1012571727088Snip:

Brussels will give the US Congress until March next year to repeal special tax breaks for US exporters - or face punitive tariffs worth hundreds of millions of dollars on US goods shipped to Europe.

The tax breaks, enshrined in the so-called Foreign Sales Corporations (FSC) provision, benefit large US exporters such as Microsoft, Boeing and Caterpillar.

The law, which would introduce sanctions from March next year, is likely to increase pressure on Washington lawmakers to comply with a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year.

At the time, the WTO also granted Brussels the right to levy punitive tariffs on US goods worth $4bn (�3.3bn, �2.3bn) - the biggest sanctions package ever awarded - though the EU has said its sanctions will only amount to �290m ($352m, �204m) in the first year.
........................
Trade officials and experts agree that the conflict over FSC is more complex and potentially more dangerous. They point out that taxation is a particularly sensitive issue, and that the beneficiaries of FSC are more numerous and spread more evenly across the US, a notable difference from the steel conflict
****************
Misetich

The pendulum is swinging - and readjustments are necessary in the "ways" things are going to be done

EU has been flexing its "young" muscles - In the years ahead those "tender" muscles will firm up giving it more strength

Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 05:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113074)

Retail Observations

I went to both Best buy and Fry's last night to get a new ink cartridge for my printer. Best Buy was busy, but not packed. Fry's, the 70 cash register money machine had about 1/3 of their registers vacant and NO line for the first time ever since I've been shopping there. Probably not a good sign during the Christmas season.

The Invisible Hand

(12/08/2003; 06:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113075)

Re: Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks

misetich,
Under an article praising a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year, you are writing: " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
Do you mean that refusal to adapt to taxes will result in failure?

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 06:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113076)

More Retail

The CNBC Squawking Heads are proposing that early snow may have a negative effect on retail numbers for the weekend. They were also suggesting that Wal-Mart, because of their size, typically lags the rest of retail. This, while they were displaying a chart showing Wal-Mart stock declining so far in December.

Methinks they are preparing us for some dismal reports.

misetich

(12/08/2003; 06:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113077)

Weak dollar pitfalls

http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20031207-114043-2915r.htmSnip:

Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, complained last Thursday that the dollar had fallen 35 percent in the last three years. He said OPEC would price oil to maintain "the purchasing power of the old, good dollar."
This is all very reminiscent of the early 1970s, when OPEC first raised the price of oil in response to a falling dollar. As early as 1970, it passed a resolution at its annual conference saying it would adjust the price of oil to reflect changes in real purchasing power. The following year, it passed a resolution complaining about "worldwide inflation and the ever-widening gap existing between the prices of capital and manufactured goods ... and those of petroleum." In other words, the prices of things OPEC countries imported were rising faster than the oil that they exported.
By 1973, OPEC had enough with U.S. inflation and it moved to sharply raise the price of oil. Although the war between Israel and Egypt precipitated the price rise, it couldn't have been sustained unless supported by fundamental economic forces. These same forces also pushed up prices for gold and other commodities. Basically, the 1973 OPEC oil price increase just kept the price of oil line with other commodities. It was more jarring only because of the circumstances in which it occurred and because it happened all at once.
Nevertheless, there are those who still believe OPEC caused the inflation of the 1970s, through some sort of "cost-push" mechanism. In truth, OPEC was responding to inflation, rather than causing it. The root cause was creation of too many dollars by the Federal Reserve. This came about because Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon cajoled the Fed into running an inflationary monetary policy to keep interest rates artificially low. They also removed many of the institutional constraints that prevented previous presidents from doing the same thing.
In short, the Fed, not OPEC, caused the stagflation of the 1970s. A recent paper by University of Michigan economists Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian confirms this analysis. ........ they conclude, "The Great Stagflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had the Fed not permitted major monetary expansions in the early 1970s. ... The stagflation observed in the 1970s is unlikely to have been caused by supply disturbances such as oil shocks."
................
Sensitive commodity prices like gold are up, the dollar is down and OPEC is again complaining about lost purchasing power. It's like deja vu all over again.

***************
Misetich

It's like deja vu all over again? - Maybe..but the pitfalls are greater in the "new economy" made up of hedonics, accounting falsifications (many call it Pro-forma) astronomical debt levels, and trillions of derivatives ready to implode

Gold $500? about gold $30,000.00? -...oops I forgot that was ANOTHER poster forecast

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/08/2003; 06:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113078)

The Invisible Hand (12/8/03; 06:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 113075)

You wrote

Re: Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks
misetich,
Under an article praising a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year, you are writing: " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
Do you mean that refusal to adapt to taxes will result in failure?
........................
Misetich

Comment of " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
was not specific to the WTO ruling or rulings - but within the context of other superpowers emerging - thus 'confrontations' are to be expected such as those we are witnessing re: trade, Iraq etc

Comments alluded to the recognition of EU as a Superpower and not as "Old Europe" which many Americans have been used to

US is in denial and attempting to thwart EU strength with the well known - divide and conquer routine- and thus far is failing and counteracting miserably

Adaption and recognizing the emergence of others such as EU, China, Russia, Muslims is the key to success

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Waverider

(12/08/2003; 07:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113079)

Spot 'n Spike

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1...is showing a high of $418.00 this morning! Meanwhile - the dollar's sinking like a dead fish, now 88.73.

Leigh

(12/08/2003; 08:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113080)

Strad Master and FOA

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/12/08/stradivarius.secret.ap/index.htmlHere's an interesting article on Stradivarius violins. Scientists believe a mini-ice age in the 1600s and 1700s caused trees to be denser and thus enhanced the way sound moves through the finished violins.

Tate

(12/08/2003; 08:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113081)

****408.6****

There is report on sister site from Bloomberg news art: "While investors have been buying gold lately to hedge against the risk of accelerating inflation, European central banks have been unloading the metal for years to diversify their reserves."

"Diversify" What a scam. Does anybody believe this crap? It is all to stop real money �GOLD- from competing with faked paper. Following central banks never aligned themselves or already broke IMF/World Bank ranks and started accumulating gold. They are: Russian, China, Malaysia and scores of other Asian central banks which represent independent countries. Such countries are either politically, economically or militarily immune world Ruling Masters (or that is what Ruling Masters think about themselves). As we speak, no doubt next Bloomberg report is being created to blow fresh smoke to obscure real disaster occurring world wide with fiat currencies. Before attitude towards gold can change in IMF/World Bank supporting countries, citizenry must pay price of economic hardship (think about Argentina) to such a degree that they stop voting puppet political parties and elect real leaders.
As far as central bankers, if they still exist, they will simply add three zeros to freshly printed paper and attempt to "diversify" they holdings by chasing precious gold in any form.
Does it sound like 1917 revolution? Gold Is Freedom in non-bloody way.

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 08:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113082)

418

@ LW:

might that $418 be a misprint? Every other source I checked topped it out at 410??

steady

(12/08/2003; 09:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113083)

the process of thinking like a giant when your still a midget

so i dont type perfect, nor do i puntucate exactly correct, and ecoism needs to be refined and modifyed but let me remind you of this 1) anyone can be a parrot, or a ventrilaquist 2) the woods would be a very quiet place if only the birds that sang the best sang at all.

gold and silver
honest money for
honest people

admin

(12/08/2003; 09:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113084)

News & Views

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 09:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113085)

Return ride?

$407.6 - half-way back to $410. What a morning ride!!!!

Gandalf the White

(12/08/2003; 11:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113086)

NOT to WORRY --- The P&F chart should gain ANOTHER little GREEN "X" today !

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe ROCKET is still headed in the CORRECT direction !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/08/2003; 12:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113087)

TA TA TAAAAAAAA -- The "KINGS OF THE HILL" today are ---

A TIE between Sir Rich and Sir Wky Woodsman !!!

SEVENTEEN people were atop the HILL during today's action.

TOMORROW is the one that counts and with the VOLATILITY shown today --- EVERYONE still has a chance !!!

GOOD LUCK ALL !
<;-)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

====

12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25

12/5/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $406.8 low $400.0 SETTLE $406.4
CHANGE +$3.1 Vol = 304 Yesterday's OI = 2,456

12/8/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $409.5 low $405.3 SETTLE $406.6
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol = 655 Yesterday's OI = 2.314
===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83

12/5/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $407.5 low $400.0 SETTLE $407.3
CHANGE +$3.1 Vol 42,589 Yesterday's OI = 193.726 DTE = 82

12/8/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $410.6 low $405.7 SETTLE $407.5
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 46.824 Yesterday's OI = 198,172

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 12:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113088)

Insurers dropping "excess" brokerage coverage

CNBC just ran a story that Travelers, AIG, and one other insurer are dropping coverage of brokerage accounts in excess of $0.5M. This insurance covers against default, not INVESTMENT losses, and has been in effect for decades, earning them millions in premiums without a single payout. The reason given was that the risks of CATASTROPHIC events are "climbing" due to issues like global security.

What did your parents tell you long ago? DON'T KEEP ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET! Just like an insurance company to stop covering depositers just before it is needed!

glennh10

(12/08/2003; 12:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113089)

It's getting more and more obvious

I read two inciteful posted news stories today. One about Japan wishing its yen to take the lead as the reserve currency of Asia; the other, Europeans lamenting that they missed out on taking advantage of the euro's recent rise against the U.S. dollar.

News stories such as these are blatant examples of the fraud of the current world-wide fiat system. The Japan/yen story points out the political desire to be the "lead dog" in the fiat scam, because that's the source of the gravy train; the Euro/dollar story describes in pretty obvious terms that the world-wide fiat system is first and foremost a casino, and secondarily at best, a means of exchange in a "free" market of goods and services. I am reminded of a dance floor:

There they are, the central banks of the world, all performing their dance around gold, trying to make like she's not there, while she's actually right there in front of them. There they are instead, each other's crippled fiat crooning amongst themselves on the world monetary dance floor.

As the situation devolves, as the workings of the present system are repeatedly reported, the utter fraud will become more and more obvious. And concurrently, as the need for a world-wide reserve is repeatedly brought up, gold will not be able to be ignored. The ongoing failures of the fiat system requiring constant "tweaking", an increasing call for honesty, and the repeated call for a world-wide currency, will place gold into the spotlight. The fiat days are numbered, imho.

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 13:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113090)

(No Subject)

Gold hit near $410 an ounce today while platinum hit 23 year highs of $800 an ounce. Gold pulled back on profit taking and possibly on "heavy" Japanese currency intervention (they are scared outta their wits!). They should be. Also a section on "Starbucks Gold".

Christmas is almost upon us - get your gold gifts ordered now to get delivered on time.

Jon H. Warner

Waverider

(12/08/2003; 13:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113091)

VIP: Daily Market Report

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHere's the link...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/08/2003; 13:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113092)

Call for complete service to breath new life into your diversification strategy

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/08/2003; 13:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113093)

This year you can beat the holiday rush

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/bracelets/Cleopatra.htmlAvoid the crowded malls.
Shop here and you may park conveniently in your own driveway!
Browse leisurely through our online catalog.
Enjoy fast reliable FedEx delivery right to your door.
Golden gifts from a name you know you can trust!

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. -- since 1973
www.usagold-jewelry.com

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/08/2003; 14:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113094)

Page Update!

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 15:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113095)

Gold on the Banker's dance floor

@ Glenn10:

Your allegory reminds me of an experience from high school. We had a "Sadie Hawkins" variant called slave day in our school. I had a mad crush on the head Song Girl (a cheerleader dance team) who was also in my English class. I thought she was unique in that she spent her weekends working at a gas station and loved cars, so everyone thought of her as a Tomboy! Well, I finally asked her if anyone had "claimed" her as his slave for the day, and she responded that not only had no one asked HER, but another Song Girl had not been "claimed" and was feeling left out. Well, for one day in my life, I had two of the cutest sweeties in class pulling me around in my "little red wagon" as my "harem". I even wore a Sheik headdress to play the part. No, we're not married today, but we had a lot of fun - the geek and cheerleader! Besides, we jabbered about muscle cars all day and become great friends throu
gh graduation.
Moral: Never ignore a great opportunity because you think you might not measure up! To bad the CB'ers don't believe they deserve gold for reserves. They probably don't, but that's their choice.

Dollar Bill

(12/08/2003; 15:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113096)

*>*

Sir Leigh, Another thinking about Stradivarius Violins was that he used wood that was soaked in the mediteranean sea.
There is historical basis for that guess.
Wouldnt the tree ring theory mean that they could go to colder elevations and reproduce the sound as a test?
Have they release a cd of that "messiah" violin playing?
Must have.

Federal_Reserves

(12/08/2003; 15:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113097)

Stink bomb on the floor of the NYSE

http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr023.htmlRetail Sales

The ticking stink bomb.......its been farting for a while
but nobody has smelled it yet. But this next report may
be the stinker.

http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr023.html

Retail Sales Have actually been falling the last two months along with money supply numbers and everyone is ignoring it preferring instead to lap up the meaningless manufacturing (ISM) diffusion indexes which made a 20 year highs on 20 year low employment figures, and puffed up GDP numbers bloated by an incorrect price deflator. Rose colored glasses may fall off, and the gas masks go on Dec 11th!

This months retail sales report could be the trip switch for a top and turn in the stock markets!

WMT stock price falling during the XMAS sales season - not a good sign my friends! Snowbound east coast, may result in cash for XMAS presents rather than XMAS presents purchased at the stores.

Melting Pot

(12/08/2003; 15:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113098)

Online petition against naked shorting

http://www.investigatethesec.com/index.htmlIn signing this petition, you are requesting that there be an independent Congressional investigation into the Securities and Exchange Commission's actions regarding the manipulative and abusive trading practice of nakedshort selling. This petition will request that the investigation seek answers as to why this illegal trading practice has been allowed to exist for over a decade without significant enforcement and regulation to prevent it.

Since the mid 1990's, the SEC has been aware of naked short selling and failed to adequately respond to investor and company complaints alike. In recent years the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have conducted investigations into naked short selling and followed these sales through money laundering schemes used by criminal elements. Those elements jeopardize our Homeland Security. Unbelievably, the practice of naked short selling still continues to this day regardless of where the profits are going.

If the SEC has failed to take adequate counter measures to stop this illegal trading practice, we not only need to know about it, but we request an accounting of their actions.

CoBra(too)

(12/08/2003; 15:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113099)

Oh,Oh! I See ...

... Gold is not yet free!

Don't worry - it will be! cb2

slingshot

(12/08/2003; 15:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113100)

Midas Crusade

In the short time they had observed Hammerton, it was clear that the town could be taken quickly by using the torch. The town buildings although protected by walls were made of wood with thatched roofs. But the Goldbugs did not come to destroy the town. They came to drive the Dark Forces from her.
Sir M.K. looking at Hammerton began to speak.

Sir Black Blade, Disperse the wagons in the woods behind us. Insure the carpenters and their wagons are set close to the Epis. Omar, split your force in half. Place them to the north and west of our camp. The Epis will shield our southern end. Lady Waverider, bringforth enough Knights to
protect our front. Keep them out of sight in the woods.
Turning to Cougar, he said. Find the group called the Scots. Have them bring up their drummers and that musical instrument they call the pipes. Bring them quickly. I have a special act at which they are well suited to perform.

The band of warriors broke rank and rode off to carry out their orders.

Sir M.K. stayed on the bluff. He watched the Epis that split in two forming the blunted point of Hammerton and creating the Tyre river on its western side.
In short time the Scots stood Before Sir M.K.
They had with them their drums and pipes and were a bit puzzled as to what Sir M.K. had in mind with their use.

Find you a spot inside the cover of the woods yet directly in front of the west bridge. Beat your drums and play your pipes loudly. Let them know we are here.
You must play as loud as you can to cover our movements and preparations, said Sir M.K.

Almost in unison the sound of a Scottish, "Aye" was heard and were off to find the right spot.
When they did the music began with the drums.

Barrooom, Boom. Barroooom, Boom. Then the pipes came to life.

The music crossed the expanse and Sir. M.K. could see men running to their stations of battle. The music was indeed loud and must have startled the defenders for they had never heard anything like it before.

Axes and saws began to fell trees and the branches discarded into the Epis. The horsemen made their way to their apointed places.

Sir Black Blade returned to Sir M.K's side.
Think that will keep them at their posts, Sir Black Blade?
Asked Sir M.K.

It would sure keep me, answered Sir Black Blade.

The Scots played untill dark and both east and west bridges were brightly illuminatated that night.

Slingshot-----------------<>

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 15:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113101)

Metals stocks fall despite gold gain

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4E13D359%2DCBFC%2D4388%2DBFBE%2DF77CD1C733D7%7D&siteid=mktwsnippit:

"Fear of both terrorism and inflation will continue to motivate investors to find safe havens," such as gold, said Alaron metals analyst Dave Meger. "Soaring demand in foreign markets will contribute to the increase, spurred by the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar."

March copper rose early in the session but closed down 0.2 percent to 96.80 cents a pound Monday. March silver rose 1.4 percent to $5.56 an ounce.

Platinum futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange traded over $800 an ounce for the first time in 23 years Monday on bets production won't be able to keep up with demand.

Platinum for January delivery was up $11.20 at $801.90 an ounce after easing off its 1980 high of $802.00.

Platinum has risen sharply since the world's largest platinum mine, South Africa's Anglo American Platinum, last week reduced its production targets and warned of more cuts, because a strong home currency, limits its export profitability.

Goldilox:

While we've been falling all over ourselves about gold and silver appreciation (Rich), platinum has quietly topped $800/oz. Seems to me this is a very tight market where supply controls or shortages can heavily leverage pricing.

Goldilox

(12/08/2003; 16:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113102)

Naked Short selling petition

@ Melting Pot:

I know nothing about naked short-selling,and the linked web-site told me NOTHING MORE except that some criminal elements had been traced to the practice by the RCMP. I can't tell if I am for or against the petition due to a complete lack of information at the website, but I know this. When people try to scare me into voting by invoking motherhood, apple pie, or "Homeland Security" and don't bother to explain the details, I highly suspect their motives.

My response is not about support or non-support of the petition, but the website is incendiary rather than informative and should be either improved or ignored. If they want my signature, they should treat me like an adult and tell me the whole story, not just some "yellow press" tidbits.

The Invisible Hand

(12/08/2003; 16:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113103)

The SEC Petition

http://www.lysanderspooner.org/bib_new.htmThe text of the petition says "In recent years the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have conducted investigations into naked short selling and followed these sales through money laundering schemes used by criminal elements. Those elements jeopardize our Homeland Security." Am I right in interpreting this as saying that the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are the criminal elements which are jeopardizing "our " Homeland Security? What's the Homeland? A Bush creation? Is the petition calling for the immediate abolition of the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police?

When you open the site of petition, you immediately get "We, the People" � Who's that?
As Lysander Spooner put in "No Treason � The Constitution of No Authority�

NO. VI.
THE CONSTITUTION OF NO AUTHORITY
SNIP from the link:

I.
The Constitution has no inherent authority or obligation. It has no authority or obligation at all, unless as a contract between man and man. And it does not so much as even purport to be a contract between persons now existing. It purports, at most, to be only a contract between persons living eighty years ago. And it can be supposed to have been a contract then only between persons who had already come to years of discretion, so as to be competent to make reasonable and obligatory contracts. Furthermore, we know, historically, that only a small portion even of the people then existing were consulted on the subject, or asked, or permitted to express either their consent or dissent in any formal manner. Those persons, if any, who did give their consent formally, are all dead now. Most of them have been dead forty, fifty, sixty, or seventy years. And the constitution, so far as it was their contract, died with them. They had no natural power or right to make it obligatory upon their children. It is not only plainly impossible, in the nature of things, that they could bind their posterity, but they did not even attempt to bind them. That is to say, the instrument does not purport to be an agreement between any body but "the people" then existing; nor does it, either ex- [*4] pressly or impliedly, assert any right, power, or disposition, on their part, to bind anybody but themselves. Let us see. Its language is:
"We, the people of the United States (that is, the people then existing in the United States), in order to form a more perfect union, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
It is plain, in the first place, that this language, as an agreement, purports to be only what it at most really was, viz., a contract between the people then existing; and, of necessity, binding, as a contract, only upon those then existing. In the second place, the language neither expresses nor implies that they had any right or power, to bind their "posterity" to live under it. It does not say that their "posterity" will, shall, or must live under it. It only says, in effect, that their hopes and motives in adopting it were that it might prove useful to their posterity, as well as to themselves, by promoting their union, safety, tranquility, liberty, etc.
Suppose an agreement were entered into, in this form:
We, the people of Boston, agree to maintain a fort on Governor's Island, to protect ourselves and our posterity against invasion.
This agreement, as an agreement, would clearly bind nobody but the people then existing. Secondly, it would assert no right, power, or disposition, on their part, to compel, their "posterity" to maintain such a fort. It would only indicate that the supposed welfare of their posterity was one of the motives that induced the original parties to enter into the agreement.
When a man says he is building a house for himself and his posterity, he does not mean to be understood as saying that he has any thought of binding them, nor is it to be inferred that he [*5] is so foolish as to imagine that he has any right or power to bind them, to live in it. So far as they are concerned, he only means to be understood as saying that his hopes and motives, in building it, are that they, or at least some of them, may find it for their happiness to live in it.
So when a man says he is planting a tree for himself and his posterity, he does not mean to be understood as saying that he has any thought of compelling them, nor is it to be inferred that he is such a simpleton as to imagine that he has any right or power to compel them, to eat the fruit. So far as they are concerned, he only means to say that his hopes and motives, in planting the tree, are that its fruit may be agreeable to them.
So it was with those who originally adopted the Constitution. Whatever may have been their personal intentions, the legal meaning of their language, so far as their "posterity" was concerned, simply was, that their hopes and motives, in entering into the agreement, were that it might prove useful and acceptable to their posterity; that it might promote their union, safety, tranquility, and welfare; and that it might tend "to secure to them the blessings of liberty." The language does not assert nor at all imply, any right, power, or disposition, on the part of the original parties to the agreement, to compel their "posterity" to live under it. If they had intended to bind their posterity to live under it, they should have said that their objective was, not "to secure to them the blessings of liberty," but to make slaves of them; for if their "posterity" are bound to live under it, they are nothing less than the slaves of their foolish, tyrannical, and dead grandfathers.
It cannot be said that the Constitution formed "the people of the United States," for all time, into a corporation. It does not speak of "the people" as a corporation, but as individuals. A corporation does not describe itself as "we," nor as "people," nor as "ourselves." Nor does a corporation, in legal language, [*6] have any "posterity." It supposes itself to have, and speaks of itself as having, perpetual existence, as a single individuality.
Moreover, no body of men, existing at any one time, have the power to create a perpetual corporation. A corporation can become practically perpetual only by the voluntary accession of new members, as the old ones die off. But for this voluntary accession of new members, the corporation necessarily dies with the death of those who originally composed it.
Legally speaking, therefore, there is, in the Constitution, nothing that professes or attempts to bind the "posterity" of those who establish[ed] it.
If, then, those who established the Constitution, had no power to bind, and did not attempt to bind, their posterity, the question arises, whether their posterity have bound themselves. If they have done so, they can have done so in only one or both of these two ways, viz., by voting, and paying taxes.

Gondolin

(12/08/2003; 16:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113104)

Goldrush in Middle Earth

Found an article a while back in the Press from New Zealand proving that the Hobbits are wise in Middle Earth.

snip

...The Government has reported an explosion of interest from prospectors at home and overseas with a 650 per cent increase in the area of the country covered by exploration and prospecting permits.
There is now 32,000 sq km of the country covered by permits, compared to 4,950 sq km at the same time last year...

...The Government is expecting money spent on prospecting to double from $10 million this year to about $20 million a year for the next two years "We are looking at an area of the economy which, over the next 15 years or so, will make a considerable contribution to New Zealand."

...GRD Macraes... mine in Otago has producedc more than $1.1 billion worth of gold in the past 14 years.
... The other party likely to benefit is the Government, which is set to get increased royalties from mining after the passing of the of the Crown Minerals Act. Under the old Mining Act the Government missed out on royalties.

end snip.

Gondolin: Interest has really taken off in the barbaric relic. Interesting the new legislation passed gaining the Government royalties. Begs the question is this good or bad, opens the door for huge taxation of gold mining operations at a later date methinks?? Nice precedent for other Governments to follow suit? Thoughts anyone?

Dollar Bill

(12/08/2003; 17:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113105)

*>*

Did the US decide to trash the dollar without telling the euro boys how much the US was willing to let it go?
Much to thier detriment? Seems like the euro industries were not given a heads up as latest news is that they didnt hedge against the dollar. Or not many did.
Has the US prepared for gold to rise? Without notifying
the euro?
The gas price hike to adjust with the dollar has to hurt the euro citizens correct?
Trichet is clearly angered at the US. He bellowed about that qoute of greenspan (taken out of context?) from 99?
earlier? Where he said something like "deficeits are other countries problem"
A us official said something like "the dollar decline will be europes tax to support the iraq war"
Was the euro notified about -how much- the US was planning to lower the dollar?
Why would china and japan invest in the euro when at some point, greenspan will let interest rates rise, (without telling euro in advance?) causeing a rise in the dollar flows. investors will flock into the dollar to catch its rise, and the euro, having taken a beating in its economy from the euro's high rate, will look like a declineing investment and well, the stock market is all ups and downs, I suppose we are in for a change, a reversal, as the euro is not ready enough to upend the dollar as reserve currency.
Is the us pounding the euro to insure that the pendulum swings back?
chirac acted too soon?
Without bush, or rather, without alkida jumping the gun and attacking the twin towers too soon, causeing afganistan to be attacked too soon, and before Pakistan was in thier hands, and hussein misplayed his chess moves just enough to wind up with the US kicking him out, chirac figureing previously that the US would be crushed, so he tried to make a future with the terrorists in a supposidly
muslim freindly future with the former nazi countries who also had an "issue" with jews previously.
french forgein minister a couple years ago called israel "a mean little country", correct or not, it played to one audience only.
God, perhaps, had a cowboy like bush in there to upend the scheme, lord knows and you and I do also, gore would not have done all this.
And we would have a much different future.

Just discharging.

steady

(12/08/2003; 17:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113106)

hold on now... who said what..... to who.... when... naw u r kidding

subject continued continued below.

or in other words as the golden ball watchers sling the mud ... brought to you daily by gold bugs there watchman, fiat lovers and there army of stoge pigeons!

was it harry or jim who said banks never fail they just get swallowed up in mergers. along that same line of thinking was another statement that went banking crisis are not announced rather bankers try to find a revenue stream opperating on such a margin so as absorbing the other banks negative revenu stream wont have to much of an impact upon the first banks revenue stream.
So a derivate, neutron bomb will not be seen nor will it be heard about, rember the effects....buildings, shell are left standing, but the insides are gutted, now imagine being a sheep and cresting a hill and bingo oh wow what a beautiful city, and what nice buildings, but once given a haircut removing the temptations of roses,and a lil closer examination, the truth, or what one can infer from the obstificated mumble jumble misdirecting almost theatrical soap opperish exhaultations from on all high, can be seen..... there is nothing in those buildings and nothing backingup the system they represent.

CoBra(too)

(12/08/2003; 17:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113107)

Insisting on a strong Dollar - Says John Snow ...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001081&sid=a6Pl_DU07cXQ&refer=benchmark_currency_rates... What a pathetic show?

Let it snow, let it snow ... After all it's the season ...

While the dollar has already depreciated - some 25 to 35%, or more, depending versus whatever fiat currency - the global reserve currency has finally depreciated against all, including the ultimate real valuation - GOLD!

GOLD, the barbarous relic, laughingly duped to be last century's barter commodity at best;

Inerestingly, GOLD was called all the pejorative adjectives, as fiat promises reigned high!
Maybe, FIAT is still reigning the imbecile, to their own destructive oblivion ... Or go John Snow!

Go Gold ... cb2

mikal

(12/08/2003; 17:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113108)

@Dollar Bill

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P66213.aspIf only God HAD brought divine providence in the form of Bush Jr. we'd all have it made. But alas, he's only a royal blue-blooded puppet after all, like most of his predecessors- Clinton, Papa, Ford, Nixon etc. Expect no white Christmas at the WHITE HOUSE until they take the US Constitution and the Good Book seriously.

Bill Fleckenstein's column at the above link today, reanimates the dramatic dollar decline while applauding gold.
Excerpts:

"One of these days the dollar is going to be a problem for the world. It's decline will turn into a rout, and all of the negative consequences will be dealt with in short order... there will be no non-chaotic or painless way out."

"Yellow dog morphs into yellow stallion"

"I'm the strongest currency in the world.

Cavan Man

(12/08/2003; 17:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113109)

mikal

Hear!,Hear!

R Powell

(12/08/2003; 17:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113110)

Goldilox

Your words ....

"While we've been falling all over ourselves about gold and silver appreciation (Rich), platinum has quietly topped $800/oz. Seems to me this is a very tight market where supply controls or shortages can heavily leverage pricing."

Yes indeed, it is a very lightly traded market, so much so that I've never dared enter. You did not indicate that you are thinking of so doing but, if you are thinking of anything but a physical purchase, please be very careful! Do you think there are PTB that sometimes move or restrain the POG? Well the platinum market is certainly such with producers sometimes withholding production and sometimes end users refusing to buy. It's similar, I suppose, to the US government subsidizing grains and cotton and the Brazilian government buying physical coffee to restrain exports but here it is very much smaller, but market powerful, players. I'll bet Black Blade knows much more of this, maybe he'll have something to say.
Too much snow here where I live!
Rich

phil288

(12/08/2003; 18:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113111)

Monday's Puplava piece

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmPuplava's piece today will make your golden heart sing. Call MK and take care of business while you can. got gold!

R Powell

(12/08/2003; 18:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113112)

Short selling

Often history repeats the errors of the past. Perhaps nowhere is this seen more often than in the falacies of economic policies. As is customary whenever mistakes from the past are seen and felt as problems in the present, scapegoats are sought to bear the blame. Those holding power seek to exonerate themselves while others simply have no comprehension of the true causes of the problem. How many can see price inflation but know nothing of their cause in past monetary policy? They see only the present bad results of past decisions. It has been customary (from as far back as at least the 1929 stock market crash and probably much farther) to blame short selling for the markets woes.

People tend to think that markets decline only because the bears are raiding with short selling and thus, many seek to limit the practice. Perhaps, along with unlimited monetary creation, the government should simply abolish all short sales as well so that the markets could more easily become irrational bubbles and everyone in the world could invest without any fear of loss. By so doing, those whose opinions of the market are negative would, in essense, be disenfranchised from investing. After all, wouldn't we all be wealthy if the DOW were at 40,000 and the Fed. were printing much, much more money? It worked for the Japanese. I'll bet they banned all short sellers!
Thoughts?
Rich

Chris Powell

(12/08/2003; 19:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113113)

Barrick's former CEO takes aim at beer

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1801Will Barrick's former CEO do for beer what he
did for gold?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1801

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Druid

(12/08/2003; 21:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113114)

Central Bank Articles and Speeches ("BIS Review")

http://www.bis.org/review/review.htmJean-Claude Trichet: Financial stability
Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Forum Financier
Belge, Brussels, 26 November 2003.
* * *
A. Introductory remarks
It gives me great pleasure to be here in Brussels and to address you in this very well-known forum at the kind invitation of Governor Quaden. The topic I shall be talking about today, namely "financial stability", is obviously very broad and challenging.

My main topic of discussion will be the probable consequences the profound changes currently taking place in the financial sector will have on financial stability and on the policies of the Eurosystem in this regard. The main reason why I am talking about this topic - and why we at the ECB are following the issue - is that the stability of the banking sector and the financial system at large is of the utmost importance for the Eurosystem, as it is for any central bank. It is the precondition for a successful conduct of monetary policy and the maintenance of smoothly functioning payment systems, which are
major responsibilities of a central bank.

I would like to focus on three specific developments: the increasing importance of financial markets in general and market volatility more specifically, financial innovation, and the process in hand to increase the integration of financial systems across countries.

When thinking about the major challenges for maintaining financial stability I find it useful to first look at the notion of how the "real world" deviates from the "frictionless" ideal world of academic textbooks. In order to organise my reasoning, this can serve as a useful starting point, since in the ideal world there is no such thing as financial instability. Indeed, most of the concerns over financial stability actually stem from the fact that our "real world" financial markets have frictions or - in other words -market imperfections.

A fundamental friction is that financial market participants very often have imperfect information. When information is not perfect - or when markets are not fully transparent - investors� decisions may be constantly subject to reassessment, which can lead to inevitable volatility in market prices. This does not necessarily mean that there is an inherent threat to financial stability. On the contrary, the very existence of some level of volatility indicates that markets are serving the function they are supposed to deliver - that they are an efficient exchange mechanism among economic agents. Nevertheless,
some recent episodes of extreme volatility have drawn our attention to more accurately delineating the boundary between "normal" and what could be called "harmful" volatility.

The second source of friction is that we also fall short of the ideal of having complete markets. Through the rapidly evolving process of financial innovation, new instruments - and often entirely new markets - are being created, taking us towards more complete markets and providing remedies for the shortcomings of more traditional instruments and markets. While this process clearly increases the efficiency of the financial system, some new risks may also be created along the way. A major recent example is the emergence of instruments to transfer credit risks between banks and other financial institutions. This is changing the activities and risk profiles of financial institutions, as previously credit risks were largely confined to banks.

Druid: For those of you interested in the "thoughts" of giants, I strongly encourage you to click on the posted web link and download the various speeches. In addition to the substance of what is being said, it's actually nice to read one of these speeches where you can discern some meaning.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/08/2003; 22:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113115)

An Invitation to Prospective Clients....

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 22:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113116)

@CB2, Goldilox, Chris and R. Powell (related?), and slingshot

CB2 � "Let it Snow". Incredible he is singing that old song "strong dollar policy" isn't it? Even after he already admitted earlier last month he would prefer a weaker dollar. With manufacturing and service sector jobs fleeing US shores leaving over 9% (more like 12%) unemployed US workers in its wake. It would appear that he's in a state of confusion over the "competitive currency devaluation" (currency war) issue. Still he was a mediocre CEO of a railroad company with little political experience. He had better get on the ball as we enter an election year.

Goldilox and R. Powell � Platinum has been rising on supply concerns. Platinum and palladium are not directly interchangeable for catalytic converters with one better suited for diesel and the other for gasoline internal combustion engines. The supply crisis has kicked into higher gear with a projected 40% decline in platinum production from Angloplats (the world's largest producer) for the next several years. The US producer (Stillwater now largely owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel" and primarily a palladium producer forward sold at very low prices not once but twice with disastrous results resulting in some execs getting their walking papers), and North American Paladium (The Canadian producer � also a primary palladium producer) produce relatively little platinum. Norilsk Nickel and Russia sold the majority of their stockpiles during the Russian Bond Crisis in 1998 that brought down Long Term Capital management for "hard currency" to meet their obligations. Another problem is Zimplats the Zimbabwean producer where little production is underway due to the political crisis under the clinically insane dictator Robert Mugabe where few want to do business. That overall leaves a few minor producers of platinum while new pollution controls have gone into effect in China for example. I could go deeper into details but these are the major themes for platinum. Still, some shares could be decent holdings but as for myself I have a small stash of Canadian platinum Maple Leafs instead (mostly diversification purposes in my mix of PMs). Remember that Paladium hit over $1100 an ounce a few years ago until the dishonorable and crooked Tocom and Nymex managers changed the rules to protect favored clients (just as they did in 1980 and hurt the Hunt Brothers in the process). I would definitely stay away from the commodities exchanges � they are fixed and tend to be set against the small fry in favor of favored players. Get the "real deal" instead. MK and friends can help out if you want platinum bullion. The commodities exchanges are simply criminal enterprises in my estimation.

Chris � I hate Coors! Sorry but just a cheap terrible tasting beer as far as I am concerned, much like Olympia, Hamms, Pabst, etc. Still, Oliphant may do well in beer. The precious metals and hydrocarbon industries are completely different animals and not suited for some MBA or graduate from some school like Wharton's, Harvard, Yale, etc. It requires leadership of people who know the business and these industries are not anything like making widgets. It requires experience and intelligence in the natural resource sector � something Randall simply did not have. Making cheap crappy beer may be his niche in life.

Slingshot � the weapons are on order (Bo Staff, Chinese broadsword and Bokken � and yes, the Bokken on order is a practice sword � in black no less, therefore "Black Blade").

- Black Blade

Druid

(12/08/2003; 22:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113117)

US body challenges Basel bank capital plans

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493824431&p=1012571727304Snip.

The government insurer of US bank deposits provoked a public dispute among regulators on Monday by releasing a study that questions the wisdom of proposed new international capital rules for banks.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said the Basel II proposals could sharply reduce bank capital, hampering the ability of US officials to prevent bank failures. The FDIC suggested the public interest would be better served by retaining some sort of minimum capital requirements.

This position strikes at the heart of the Basel effort, which attempts to align capital requirements more closely with risk calculations made by banks. George French, deputy director of the FDIC, said he doubted that "the optimal capital level of the bank is whatever the banker calculates it to be". Laws dating back to the bank failures of the 1980s required US regulators to be more careful.

"The weakness or failure of a large systemically important bank has consequences far beyond the stakeholders of that bank."

He added: "This is an issue that the US needs to resolve for itself. I wouldn't say we are laying this on the European Basel committee at this time."

Druid: We are in the midst of major policy changes.

Druid

(12/08/2003; 22:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113119)

Study: 401(k) investors are ready to save more

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20031207-9999_1b7directors.html
Snippet:

BOSTON � Many investors in 401(k) retirement plans expect to put more money into their accounts next year after the stock market staged a strong rally this year, a study released last week shows.

The study by Boston-based mutual fund company Fidelity Investments found that 82 percent of 401(k) investors plan to raise their contribution levels or keep them the same next year.

Nearly 70 percent of all U.S. workers have 401(k) plans and contribute, on average, 7 percent of their wages to the plans every year, the Fidelity report said.

"Participation levels remain high and eligible workers have not backed away from their steady contribution levels over the years, which are two important measures of the health of the system," according to Kathryn Hopkins, executive vice president of Fidelity Institutional Retirement Services Co., the biggest provider of 401(k) plans.

Druid: This article is really painful to read.

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 23:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113120)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

I came away from the gold conference with a different view. I had been cautious going into the gold show. However, prominent media stories about gold being overvalued followed subsequently by cautious statements coming from several prominent newsletter writers were rapidly changing my view. After witnessing the degree of caution at the gold show I believed that gold prices and gold shares would be heading higher. There was too much caution. The key indicator for me was this weekend's edition of Barron's which featured an article titled "Too Precious." The writer felt that gold shares were getting overheated with gold share prices getting ahead of the bullion prices. The article goes on to make a case for gold shares being overvalued with examples of Newmont, Barrick, Placer and AngloGold.

I take a different view. I would like to make the case that gold and gold shares are far from being overvalued. I begin my case with the price of gold itself. At today's closing price of $407.50 gold is still down 52% from its peak back in 1980. Gold bullion prices have been in a bear market for almost two decades. To say that gold is overvalued simply because it has risen 60% from its bear market nadir of $255 in 2001 is absurd. Back in 1980 when gold was selling at $850 the money supply as reflected in M3 was $1.8 trillion. Today that figure is $8.9 trillion as shown in the graph below. In 1980 when gold was selling at $850 an ounce the supply of money was $1.8 trillion. More than two decades later the money supply has risen by 400% and the price of gold is $450 less than where it was in 1980.

Another factor that has not been reflected in the gold and silver markets is the approaching gold and silver train wreck. Proven and probable reserves for major gold and silver producers have not kept pace with the increase in production. There are many large gold producers today that haven't improved their reserve life from where they were over a decade ago. Large gold and silver deposits are getting harder to find with very few existing fields of sufficient size capable of replacing each year's production of the majors. In order to replace existing production the majors would have to be finding 5 five-million ounce deposits each year simply to keep existing production flat. The majors are ramping up their exploration budgets and have been raising billions in cash this year. However, the time from discovery to the time of production may take as long as 5-7 years. Many experts in the field believe that the majors are unlikely to survive in their present form by the end of this decade. If a major merges or acquires another producer, unless that producer has a longer reserve life, the reserve life of the major remains unchanged. There is only one way that those reserves are going to be replaced and that is through exploration (finding more gold) or through acquiring the reserves of junior exploration companies who hold gold and silver resources in the ground.

Black Blade: Nice discussion indeed. I would be a buyer of the metal rather than the shares myself at current levels as I have mentioned before. Still, the article is a very "good sign" for the true contrarian investor (who tends to outperform the Lemmings by leaps and bounds). I am also a value investor and in the current environment I prefer the metals over the shares (with rare exceptions � rarer all the time). In the end I see gold and silver as "portfolio insurance" rather than an investment. The US dollar is headed over the abyss and will crumble at least another 30-50% from current levels. The budget and current account deficits in this period of "competitive currency devaluation" is completely unsustainable. Be exceptionally careful and very picky with your investments now. The "smart money" is going for hard assets and my clients (well two groups so far have taken the plunge and the other is slowly but tentatively moving in that direction if they can ever get into agreement over very minor details). I am not making any recos here but simply for disclosure I do own three PM mining shares (GoldCorp, Glamis, and Meridian) and I do own some energy trusts (mostly tax advantaged Canadians with a strengthening currency and some minor energy limited partnerships). OK, and some other minor positions in other sectors, but the point I am making is definitely get "portfolio insurance" first to build a sound foundation for your wealth pyramid (right now that means physical gold and silver, and if you are brave � some platinum too).

OK, as always and for your own security � get out of debt and stay out of debt (if at all possible), stash some emergency cash for expenses (I would probably switch a chunk of that into PMs as the US dollar currency is in a downtrend and gold and silver are liquid and a better bet with "negative real rates" making bank and money market accounts losers by far), accumulate gold and silver "portfolio insurance", and definitely start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities (with inflation on the way, and unforeseen events always a possibility get and keep prepared � maybe a year's worth or more of supply if possible). The cost of "real goods" are headed higher!

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 23:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113121)

IRA Rollovers

Marketalk (aka George Cooper) at (800) 869-5115 ext.102 may be of help here. A small position in a Gold Bullion IRA coul help balance the limited selection of 401K choices offered by most companies. Anyone can contribute to an IRA even if they have a company sponsored 401K program. Interesting that Fidelity has a similar program but does not advertise it and the costs are high (not to mention some broker would likely try to sell you some other "dead in the water" investment instead). At least give George a call to discuss the issue to diversify your IRA retirement savings and balance out your retirement picture with some "portfolio insurance".

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 23:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113122)

Precursor to Puplava's Market Wrap Up

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/0929.html
Snippit:

The Approaching Storm

Even if the price of gold and silver were to rise sufficiently to trigger larger exploration budgets by the majors, it takes time to bring those discoveries from discovery to production. This time lag is getting longer in the U.S. and in Canada. The time required for permitting new projects can take as long as three to ten years depending on location and size of the project. Higher prices will not be the panacea that everyone thinks. You have to go out and find the stuff and then bring that new discovery into production--a process that can take 5-7 years on average. That is what is going to make this new bull market different from the last bull market that preceded it. The above ground stockpiles and the reserves aren't as plentiful as they once were. Furthermore, the debasement of currencies is now almost universal. No currency is fully backed by gold anymore. So there are going to be very few places to hide when as the currency wars pick up the pace. Eventually institutions will be looking for a safe haven from the coming monetary storms. When the monetary storm becomes a Category 5 storm the investment public will be looking for a life preserver too. That is when gold and silver will begin to fly. You are going to see the metals markets gap up daily as demand overwhelms supply. And unlike the last bull market, supply will be limited. There won't be enough silver in the COMEX to handle demand. You won't be able to get your hands on silver; while gold will be so expensive, it will be beyond the reach of most investors. Gold and silver equities will be all that remains for most investors. Even then due to limited supply, investors will be paying dearly for them.

Black Blade: I was going to go into this in today's DMR but it was self explanatory in the report itself. Exploration budgets are still tight and fewer deposits are being discovered and economically viable ones are fewer still. The political environment and lag time means that gold and silver will get rarer over the next several years as the population grows an more of the world's population is allowed to own precious metals. My take is that many precious metals companies are just too short sighted to understand the fundamentals of the market. There are a few small exploration and mining companies that got their act together but not many. The simple fact is the supply cannot keep up with growing demand. Nuff said!

Black Blade

(12/08/2003; 23:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113123)

Three Weeks To Xmas!!!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/
I think I will take the next hour or so to peruse the offerings of the "gifts that keep on giving" offered by the USAGOLD "treasury". I would like to make a "raid" myself but soooo many nice pieces offered and the guards of the castle have too keen an eye. Time is running short and lotsa PM jewelry (watches, chains, necklaces, coins, etc.). This has to be the biggest selection I've seen offered by USAGOLD for Xmas.

- Black Blade

misetich

(12/09/2003; 04:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113124)

Layoff Tracker Update:

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.htmlSnip:

The latest job cuts at Forbes 500s companies:

Akron, Ohio, tire company Goodyear Tire & Rubber (nyse: GT - news - people ) is eliminating 1,200 positions in a cost-cutting maneuver. The cut represents about 1% of the firm's staff.

Redmond, Wash.-based AT&T Wireless Services (nyse: AWE - news - people ) plans on cutting about 30,000 jobs, or more than 10% of its staff, according to published reports.

New York-based Verizon Communications (nyse: VZ - news - people ) said that 21,600 workers, or about 10% of its total staff, accepted an early-retirement buyout offer. The company offered the plan to its workers to cut costs.
***************
Misetich

US ministry of misinformation/disinformation is working overtime.

These planted "trolls" dissemininate false information on the state of the US economy, that misleads investors in making poor investment decisions.

For example, a notion was presented that the US is devauling its currency intentionally to cause havoc for the EU.

Nonsense. The EU enlargement/expansion has tons of underutilzed expansion within EU - thus EU ecomony will not be affected by a "soaring Euro" as most of the trading is performed within EU borders.

EU is concerned about the overvalued US $ and the potential world financial disaster, in the event of a US $ rout. Recently a report was "leaked" out to the media on such contingency plan.

In recent days many articles have been published relative to the disappearing appetite of foreigners for US $ denominated assets. EU has divested of GSE's, OPEC countries are pulling out US $ at great speed in 2003. China has reportedly been dishording US Treasuries in recent months.

Yet readers have reported US is staging this "self-mutiliation of the its currency"

Reality check says otherwise. When a country's GDP growth is reported at a rate of 7-8% annual growth and no jobs are being created THERE IS A PROBLEM.

When a country's currency depreciates during a period when GDP growth is reported at a rate of 7-8% annually - THERE IS A PROBLEM

Investors can "believe" these trolls and continue holding US $ denominated assets or they can perform their own due diligence - and safeguard themselves accordingly

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steady

(12/09/2003; 05:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113125)

can i get a...............

Z U B A Z O O M >

Paper Avalanche

(12/09/2003; 05:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113126)

A prediction of today's POG activity.....

Given that the FOMC is meeting today I predict that we will see POG slammed for $7.50 and close at $401 and change. Expect the big selling to start around 10:00 am EST.

History shows that this scenario has a very high probability of occuring. History also shows that if this should occur that we will see gold close over $410 by Friday.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Let's watch and find out!

PA

7nomads

(12/09/2003; 06:27:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113127)

Back to 1964?

http://www.forbes.com/columnists/free_forbes/2003/1222/230.htmlI don't keep up with the mainstream news, but I found this link from another site.

It was pro-silver, but one point was a surprise.

"But the major looming use for silver is the ancient monetary one. The metal that used to be money will serve as a store of value once again."

Why would you use silver for money when there's more gold available?

Knallgold

(12/09/2003; 07:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113128)

...unless FED has some inflationary news...

Henri

(12/09/2003; 07:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113129)

7nomads msg #113127

When gold is $10,000/oz silver will be at least visible when making purchases. I keep remembering the trail guide's discussion of one atom of gold per coin at least thats what they will tell us.

Other benefits- silver is an anti microbial agent thereby serving an additional function in the transfer of things between peoples. With silver coin the passing of disease along with your money is less likely but not impossible. Here is where the hoarding of silver has usefulness. If one cleans their hands after handling the coin and deposits it in a holding recepticle, the passage of time will more effectively destroy any adherent microbes. Is this really hoarding??? Nah

Waverider

(12/09/2003; 07:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113130)

GBS debuts, gives all investors a shot at gold

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/12/09/rtr1174192.html"Gold Bullion Securities Ltd., controlled by the industry-funded World Gold Council, opened trading on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday, giving everyone from institutional to small investors a chance to play the surging gold market..."

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 08:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113131)

Bull Hats

In response to the Dow 10000 hats at eh NYSE, Mark Haines wore a top hat with a bull on it. Since the index stayed over the 10000 line for only about 45 seconds, he appropriately flashed the bull's behind at the camera. Doesn't look like the market is really buying the quantity of "bull" that's being spouted around.

Operative

(12/09/2003; 08:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113132)

Seeing Is Believing

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAG8VWZZND.htmlGovernment Tells Consumers, Media How to Spot Deceptive Diet Ads

Snip:
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Lose weight without dieting or exercise! Eat your way to a trimmer you! Block fat before your body can absorb it!
According to the government, what products using those slogans should really say is: "I lost $350 in two weeks. Ask me how!"
The Federal Trade Commission released a guide Tuesday to help consumers and the media spot deceptive weight-loss products. The goal is to prevent consumers from wasting their money and to get newspapers and broadcasters to reject advertisements. "

Comment: Well, bust my bitches and bless my soul, the government really does care about lil ole me afterall. Guess I will have to rethink that old joke line about, "Hi ! I am from the government and I am here to help you." I am sure that any day now we will see government sponsored ads telling us to get out of the stock markets and buy gold and silver to protect ourselves from the coming storm. Seeing how the "goal is to prevent consumers from wasting their money ".

Cavan Man

(12/09/2003; 08:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113133)

Mortgage Market Slowing & Layoffs

Washington Mutual Cuts 2003 Profit Estimate, Jobs (Update2)
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. thrift, cut its forecast for 2003 earnings because of a decline in mortgage lending. The company will fire 2,900 people as part of a plan to eliminate $1 billion in costs.

Boilermaker

(12/09/2003; 08:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113134)

Paper Avalanche msg#: 113126

Good Call;
"Given that the FOMC is meeting today I predict that we will see POG slammed for $7.50 and close at $401 and change. Expect the big selling to start around 10:00 am EST."

I've got my guys in the pit targeting my contest guess for a $403.80 close but I'm worried there will be a counterattack before the day's over

Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 09:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113135)

@PA:

We're headed back up, so we'll soon see who bribed the pit traders the best.

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 09:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113136)

OOPs

@ Boilermaker

admin

(12/09/2003; 10:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113137)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News! China, Oil Producers Dump Dollar/FT Front Page

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Agingfast

(12/09/2003; 10:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113138)

What action should be taken these days...

...by the head of the purchasing department of a company that is a steady user of silver? (Not that I am one.)

Dollar Bill

(12/09/2003; 10:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113139)

*>*............

The purposeful decline of the dollar must have a US administration reason. Talking strong dollar, but pushing it low to what ends?

Posted on the forum this year was info on discussions Bush had with top money guys at the white house.
They managed to convince him that the deficeits were ok for some reason. Some strategy is at work.
Is Bush BS-ing when he says he is going to talk to the chinese premier soon and again about derailing the yuan from the dollar?
A couple strategies?
Keeping euro in check by this too soon euro rise?
Insureing that it is not a reserve threat? During the next and coming recession?

Planning on a post election year recession complete with interest rate rise?
First insureing that the euro region has its recession...starting any time now? Germany is supposidly at deflations door, as reserve currency, the US does not want a healthy competitor. Guys are guys.

A recession is natural, postponed by greenspan, are they planning one? Force the present order to slim down before system parts are strong enough to get together and create another reserve option?

A recession would slow down china's economy and leave it's tottering banks in a weakened state that works to the US interest?
Volker showed that the US will sometimes strangle itself if it needs to. Interest rates went to what? In the early eighties?
That kind of interest rate, still possible by the US, would change the investment scene dramatically, sop up lots of huge money in 30 year bonds. Or shorter,

This era of low rates, a time to lock in courtesy of the world? China and Japan?
When the next presidential elections happen, are we in for a real change in the global picture?
Or, rather, another flex by US economic muscle?

The US might have a credit cancer, but is it mortal?
Are we declareing imminent death on a beast that has survival options? That is at present using?
I cant see Bush being timid about allowing a post election recession if it strengthens the US reserve status because the rest of the world cant figure out how to change things.

If we get to protectionism, here is someones ideas;
"Making money from protectionism
I have a few ideas, assuming that the protectionist measures are preceeded by a market wipeout:
bets to be placed after the market crash, in anticipation of the Smoot-Hawley legislation to follow.
0.)buy mostly domestic oil and gas producers
1.) Buy US and Euro garment manufacturers
2.) Buy US and Euro auto manufacturers
3.) Short Asian electronics manufacturers
4.) Bet on the recovery of the nuclear power industry in the US. A combination of better technology and dire necessity will change everythign here, IMO. Go long uranium miners, enrichers, and plant equipment manufacturers.
Remember, the US has very little domestic oil, but lots of domestic uranium.
This is my favorite, because it's less obvious and much cheaper"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/09/2003; 11:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113140)

Build a Firm Foundation for Your Portfolio

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

Zhisheng

(12/09/2003; 11:31:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113141)

Up into the Close.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1And up $1.60 on the day.

Black Blade

(12/09/2003; 11:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113142)

(No Subject)

Precious metals rise, US dollar weakens, and investors/Wall Street awaits the Fed rate decision in a few minutes. Fire up the presses - they don't print gold!

Jon H. Warner

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/09/2003; 11:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113143)

Page Update!

Homer

(12/09/2003; 12:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113144)

POG / Gold / Dow

I know I may be naive, but how can the price of gold and the DOW go up, while the strength of the dollar increases against the EUR (even slightly)?

misetich

(12/09/2003; 12:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113145)

S. Roach - 2005 Forecast - US Current Account Deficit to SOAR TO 5.8% OF GDP

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031208-mon.html#anchor0Snip:

The pieces of the global puzzle do not do justice to the big-picture themes that are likely to play out on the world stage over the next few years. Particularly worrisome, in my view, are the ever-mounting imbalances of a US-centric world. Nowhere are they more evident than in our forecast of America's gaping current-account deficit, a shortfall that we estimate will rise to an astonishing 5.8% of GDP in 2005. Not only is that a record for the US, but in dollar terms � $710 billion � it is a record for the world, requiring foreign investors to provide America with nearly $3 billion of capital inflows every business day by 2005. America's current-account deficit is a by-product of what I view as two of the world economy's most unsustainable trends � a saving-short, overly indebted US that is living well beyond its means, and the inability or unwillingness of the rest of the world to stimulate domestic demand.
......................
World financial markets are not priced for such intensified macro tensions. Instead, hopes of a classic synchronous global recovery are in the air. What the markets are missing, in my view, is the price the world has paid to climb out of the near-deflationary abyss of the last recession. Central banks have made the riskiest bets in modern history � policy rates of "zero" in Japan, 1% in America, and 2% in Europe. At the same time, fiscal authorities have upped the ante as never before, with government budget deficits of 7% in Japan, 4% in America, and 3% in Europe. And the authorities have colluded in currency management in a period of unprecedented external imbalances.

The main problem with these extreme policy gambits is that there is no easy way out. If central banks move to normalize short-term interest rates, increasingly leveraged bond and credit markets could be vulnerable. The fiscal conundrum could be even more serious. Even a vigorous cyclical recovery in the US will not touch the long-term tax reduction and entitlement programs that are likely to produce ever-widening structural budget deficits. And Europe's recent suspension of the Stability and Growth Pact to accommodate Germany and France raises serious questions about the region's long-term commitment to fiscal discipline. Equally disconcerting is the possibility of an accelerating decline in the dollar. If that occurs, it seems reasonable that foreign investors would finally demand compensation for taking currency risk on dollar-denominated assets � pushing long-term US real interest rates higher.
...........................
*************
Misetich

The "political" wild card has been played - Politicians aspire to get elected/re-elected at whatever price.

The stage has been set for the upcoming 2004 Presidential election - Taxes have been cut, government spending has increased, corporations have been granted accelerated depreciation write-off on capital spending, tax breaks, IR are being kept at "accommodative" range.

The next trench of "rebates" are being prepared and ready to be mailed in spring of 2004. US GDP numbers will accerate to the 4-5% range (hedonically adjusted of course) in 2004

All is well in the wonderful land of oz!

...however the imbalances and misadjustments are not being resolved - to the contrary - the stage is set for a possible US $ rout

Going forward in 2004 savings rate will plunge, deficits will soar, and the US $ will accelarate its descend..

and lastly - UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS (no the real ones) will be improved at best to the 5.6 to 5.7 level - The improvement will be timed to coincide with the election.

...2005?

Don't ask - its payment time for porking out in 2003/2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Boilermaker

(12/09/2003; 12:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113146)

FED Groundhogs

I can't wait for the good news, Alan comes out of his hole and sees his shadow, 6 more months of negative interest rates. Halleluiah!! We are saved from the evil bearers of deflation, recession and halitosis.

TownCrier

(12/09/2003; 12:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113147)

Helpful guidance especially for the new gold investor

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.htmlHot off the press (or rather warm off the keyboard) from MK.

R.

TownCrier

(12/09/2003; 12:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113148)

Interest rate target kept at 1%; FOMC Statement for the record

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20031209/default.htmDecember 9, 2003

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. However, with inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/09/2003; 12:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113149)

So what if the roads get covered with ice and snow! You don't have to drive anywhere!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/pendants/gold.htmlShop here while you remain parked conveniently in your own driveway!

Browse leisurely through our online catalog.
Enjoy fast reliable FedEx delivery right to your door.
Golden gifts from a name you know you can trust.

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www.usagold-jewelry.com

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 13:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113150)

Santa rally unmasked - Bah Humbug???

CBS Marketwatchsnippit:

Santa rally unmasked
December 09, 2003 12:37:46 (ET)

Please don't call him a Grinch but CBS Marketwatch columnist Mark Hulbert has pulled the beard off of the Santa Claus rally and exposed the myth and lore surrounding the highly publicized indicator.

But don't let that stop you from leaving some cookies and cocoa by the PC. As they say, "If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall."

Goldilox:

To quote the Guv: We'll be back and bears can be hungry!

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 13:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113151)

Santa -continued

snippit2: this part didn't make the cut and paste in my last post.

"One of the new portfolios called "Recommended Stocks for Buy And Hold," targets gold and natural gas companies in both the U.S. and Canadian markets. Most notable among the holdings in the portfolio are Provident Energy (ZBRA, Trade), Newmont Mining (NEM, Trade) and Enerplus Resources (NEM, Trade). "As energy prices rise, so will our dividends and the value of these stocks. With both crude and natural gas poised to break out on the upside, the time is excellent for purchasing select oil and gas producers," Hesler said.

The second portfolio, "Junior Gold & Silver Stocks," primarily focuses on the precious metal sector. Hesler argues that commodities, such as gold, and silver are just beginning a 20-year bull market. Two of his favorite gold companies, Goldcorp (GG, Trade) and Anglogold (AU, Trade) are included in this portfolio. "

Goldilox: Geee! Mainline analysts are staring to see energy and miners as good "HOLD" stocks!! Where have they been during the last 100% rise? A 20 year bull market? Let's not get carried away. If I hold for 20 years, I'll probably need a gold plated casket to use my stash!

Boilermaker

(12/09/2003; 15:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113152)

The Barron's Effect

Did anyone else notice the delayed "Barron's Effect" on gold stocks today? My list got creamed. Oh well, the buried stuff out back went up.
Cheers
Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 16:23:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113153)

Barron's effect?

@ Boilermaker

I certainly saw my gold issues get hammered, but what is Barron's role? I went to their site, but I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't see anything in the headlines, which is all I'm able to access.

Gandalf the White

(12/09/2003; 16:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113154)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- We have WINNERS !!!

SORRY I'm LATE -- Just having returned from a full day of reconnoitering Hammerton ---The COMEX action shows ----
GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $409.0 low $406.5 SETTLE = $408.2
CHNAGE +$1.6 Volume = 596 Yesterday's OI = 2,086
===
AND the POG CONTEST WINNER IS ----

SIR Golden Era, wins the German "20 Mark" GOLD piece (0.2304 oz. of Au) !!!!!

with RUNNERS-UP of

Sir Magister Aurelius, and
Sir Usul !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

both winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle

===
**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)
===

Will each of the three WINNERS please make contact with Marie of USAGOLD via email at marie@usagold.com an provide her your HANDLE, real name, and snailmail address for mailing out your PRECIOUS !

Thanks ALL for your input answers of WHY the POG will (or will not) exceed the $500. level in year 2004 !
We shall be planning the next Contest soon. <;-)

Goldilox

(12/09/2003; 16:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113155)

Bonds hammered as well

@ Boilermaker, et al

The 10 year bond, for instance, went from 4.20% to 4.35% after Sir AG's announcement. Methinks lots of money fled the table in all markets except pure commodities. Afterhours quotes for the miners look to be pushing them back up some, so tomorrow could be a good recovery day for them.

misetich

(12/09/2003; 19:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113156)

Concern as Washington Mutual cuts outlook - 2900 Labor cuts

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493842686&p=1012571727088Snip:

The evidence of distress in the US mortgage market grew on Tuesday as Washington Mutual surprised investors by revealing 2,900 more job cuts and slashing its profit forecast.

WaMu, the seventh-biggest US bank by assets, is a leading arranger of loans that are then typically sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other issuers of securities in the $5,100bn mortgage bond market.
.....................
**************
Misetich

More additions to the "bonepile" -

The jobless recovery continues...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Druid

(12/09/2003; 19:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113157)

(No Subject)

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/emorn3.htmSnippit

"With all the presumed and/or evident market interventions of late, I thought to spend a little time, while waiting for easy Al's merry men to cut and paste their 50 word essay on why the Fed is right, talk about living in the past, on the topic of intervention. More specifically I wanted to focus on the topic of when intervention is needed, which should not be confused with intervention being a cure. In an ideal sense, intervention should never be needed. That is, if all money is real and all liabilities are being serviced intervention to maintain equilibrium would be pointless."

Druid: Lewis is always good IMHO but today's read is pretty funny. I'm still laughing at the cut and paste assertion. Enjoy.

misetich

(12/09/2003; 19:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113158)

Opec may look at trading oil in euro

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/12/10/business/6879623&sec=businessSnip:

CARACAS: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) could discuss trading oil in euros or a basket of currencies other than the US dollar because of concerns over the slide in the greenback's value, said the cartel's secretary-general, Alvaro Silva.

"There is talk of trading crude in euros. It's one of the alternatives ... either that or a basket of currencies. It is possible that the organisation will discuss this and take a decision at a given time," Silva told the Venezuelan state news agency Venpres in an interview from Vienna.

Opec has aimed to keep oil prices within its preferred US$22-US$28-a-barrel target band, although prices recently have been at the top of the range or above it.

At the cartel's meeting in Vienna last week, some members said the higher prices were fair as the falling value of the dollar had slashed their purchasing power for goods from areas such as the euro zone.

Leading producer Saudi Arabia made clear that it was pursuing a higher oil price target to offset buying power lost with the decline of the dollar.

On Monday, the dollar fell to record lows versus the euro for a seventh straight day and to a three-year low against the yen on concerns over the United States� ability to fund its current account deficit.

Silva said Opec still hoped to maintain oil prices within its preferred US$22-US$28-a-barrel target range in the first quarter of next year. He said the range was sufficiently wide to accommodate transitory price fluctuations and other emergencies.

But he added: "The band is not set in stone, and if there is a decision to change its levels, they would be changed above all because of currency circumstances." � Reuters

****************
Misetich

Some have suggested US is co-ordinating US $ devaluation to "hit EU"

...in the world of reality...OPEC's openess, along with Russia's recent "announcement" strongly hints the era of Oil and other commodities priced in Euros is closer than many think or wish...

How will this affect the US $ and US economy, stock market, trade deficit, bond market, housing bubble?

2003 was only the beginning of trend changes...2004, will be the "calm" - presidential elections - before the real storm hits in 2005 and onward

Physical Gold is INDISPENSABLE PORTFOLIO INSURANCE

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steady

(12/09/2003; 19:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113159)

better two years early than a day late>

WHAT there was a contest, and i missed it. son of a gun and dadgummit. i cant belive it, and to think it was right there in front of my eyes all this time. I would have won, i could have won, i should have entered. Yep we all know coulda, woulda, and shoulda never did a thing.

i wonder if many people will be saying something similar 18-24 months from now in regrads to gold and silver.

let that be a lesson to all you who have yet to be priced in better early than a day late when all the gold has allready been given( sold) out>

Druid

(12/09/2003; 19:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113160)

Yukos oil trade to U.S. collapses

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41718Snippit:

After almost 18 months of small, but high-profile, exports of Russian crude oil to the United States, Yukos appears to have halted the shipments amid Kremlin pressure to block the sale of Yukos shares to a U.S. oil company.

According to an industry source in Moscow, oil cargoes from Yukos, Russia's leading exporter, comprise most of the recorded Russian exports of oil to the United States since trial deliveries first began in July of 2002. The volume has been falling steadily since mid-summer of this year.

"The general situation," the industry source told The Russia Journal, "is that the United States has slowed down purchasing of Russian oil. In the October- November period, the shipments fell from 50,000 barrels per day (bd) to about 10,000 bd. This compares with September, when the average was 142,000 bd, and with July, when the shipments were about 475,000 bd." According to the source, "we still don't know why there has been this slowdown. What we can say is that maybe the United States has found an alternative oil source."

Druid: ANOTHER marker along the trail. This world wide paper collapse and race to the bottom is really picking up steam.

Waverider

(12/09/2003; 19:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113161)

Inflation Could Be Around The Corner

http://www.ncpa.org/edo/bb/2003/bb-20031208.html"Another effect of this weak dollar policy became evident in recent days when the OPEC oil cartel indicated that it might raise prices to compensate for the falling dollar. It has always priced oil in dollars, so a fall in the dollar means that its members have to pay more for goods and services purchased in Europe, Japan and elsewhere. Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, complained on Thursday that the dollar had fallen 35 percent in the last 3 years. He said OPEC would price oil to maintain "the purchasing power of the old, good dollar."

This is all very reminiscent of the early 1970s, when OPEC first raised the price of oil in response to a falling dollar. As early as 1970, it passed a resolution at its annual conference saying that it would adjust the price of oil to reflect changes in real purchasing power. The following year, it passed a resolution complaining about "world-wide inflation and the ever widening gap existing between the prices of capital and manufactured goods�and those of petroleum." In other words, the prices of things that OPEC countries imported were rising faster than the oil that they exported.

By 1973, OPEC had had enough with U.S. inflation and it moved to sharply raise the price of oil. Although the war between Israel and Egypt precipitated the price rise, it couldn't have been sustained unless supported by fundamental economic forces. These same forces also pushed up prices for gold and other commodities. Basically, the 1973 OPEC oil price increase just kept the price of oil line with other commodities. It was more jarring only because of the circumstances in which it occurred and because it happened all at once.

Nevertheless, there are those who still believe that OPEC caused the inflation of the 1970s, through some sort of "cost-push" mechanism. In truth, OPEC was responding to inflation, rather than causing it. The root cause was the creation of too many dollars by the Federal Reserve. This came about because Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon cajoled the Fed into running an inflationary monetary policy in order to keep interest rates artificially low. They also removed many of the institutional constraints that prevented previous presidents from doing the same thing.

In short, the Fed, not OPEC, caused the stagflation of the 1970s. A recent paper by University of Michigan economists Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian confirms this analysis. Writing in the prestigious NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2001), they conclude, "The Great Stagflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had the Fed not permitted major monetary expansions in the early 1970s�. The stagflation observed in the 1970s is unlikely to have been caused by supply disturbances such as oil shocks."

Although the signs are nascent, indications are that inflation is starting to show its ugly head again, the result of an extremely easy Fed policy over the last 3 years. Sensitive commodity prices like gold are up, the dollar is down and OPEC is again complaining about lost purchasing power. It's like d�j� vu all over again."

Waverider: Interesting find from next door on the circumstances leading to 1970's stagflation, and an interesting follow-up to Misetich's article - OPEC didn't have an alternative pricing mechanism in the '70's whereas now there's the Euro...this really puts us in unchartered territory!

BTW - *** CONGRATULATIONS to All the Winners ***

Dollar Bill

(12/09/2003; 19:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113162)

*>*.........+

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/031215/usnews/15terror.htmGood article on the saudis and the Wahhabi proselytizing campaign.
A recession would cause lower gas prices, which would limit funding of this problem.

Aristotle

(12/09/2003; 20:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113163)

Homer 113144, welcome aboard.

I'm sure you're not being purposely ignored. Everybody's just too busy buying Gold to answer your question.

There's no perfect arbitrage mechanism at this time to position a theoretical financial fulcrum for any real hopes of a lasting predictible balance to the teeter-totter of items you've listed.

Under the same rationale, it's also reasonable to expect that Gold prices could presently rise in terms of every currency known to mankind.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Druid

(12/09/2003; 20:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113164)

It's Too Late For A Dollar Devaluation

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp"The recipe for economic disaster over the last ten years has been the potent combination of three disequilibria: an asset bubble, a credit excess, and an exchange rate overvaluation. Extreme readings in any two are often enough to precipitate a financial and economic crisis; extreme readings in all three make crisis inevitable. Japan in the late 1980's had an extreme asset bubble and credit excess, but not an exchange rate disequilibrium. Mexico had an extreme exchange rate disequilibrium accompanied by something of an asset bubble and a selective domestic credit excess. Malaysia and Thailand had all three---asset bubbles, credit excesses and exchange rate overvaluations. Korea had the first two, but arguably its exchange rate was not overvalued by early 1997."

Duid: Excellent read.

21mabry

(12/09/2003; 20:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113165)

John Adams

In a book I was scanning thru there was a letter from John Adams to his wife.He wrote to her after he was elected president how could they possibly live on the 25,000 fiat dollars that was his yearly salary for being the president.He had to supply his own horses and carriage he paid for his own servants and linens and dishes used in the presidents home.He made the statment that because of fiat everything in philadelphia was over priced,and scoundrels charged whatever they had the guts to ask.He stated with no metal backing the economy was far beyond the commons man ability to decipher.I do not have book in front of me these are all from memory but those were his basic statments.21

21mabry

(12/09/2003; 21:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113166)

(No Subject)

Does anyone know if the continentals were still circulating then Adams stated he was paid in paper money.The constitution was in effect at that time.Should not he have been paid in specie.21

steady

(12/09/2003; 21:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113167)

what huh who whoa info overload...............

fog and cold make for dim views.

info overload.
lets keep it simple follow the golden ball relative to planetory paper currency.

21mabry

(12/09/2003; 21:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113168)

Gold Dealers

There is an article on another site that talks about bullion dealers obligations on reporting sales to the goverment under the new terrorism laws.Maybe someone from centennial could comment if they have seen the article.Or can anyone comment about bullion dealers and the reports they are forced to make to goverment organizations.21

Black Blade

(12/09/2003; 23:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113170)

Just a Few Quick Responses

Goldilox � Barron's (the weekend financial news issue of Dow Jones) had an article stating that gold miners shares have far outpaced the price of gold. Mike Santoli on CNBC who works for the newspaper said that gold was the better option but that did not mean that shares could rise further, just that at shares have risen faster than gold. However, he did not explain anything about leverage and the "Barron Bounce" tends to effect share prices featured in the following week. Another point is that these people have little to no experience with commodity issues and how the industries operate. It's really no big deal so I expect it to be a temporary effect as precious metals prices rise.

Misetich � There are fewer counted as unemployed in recent weeks as the second extension of unemployment benefits are running out leading the BLS to count these unemployed now as "employed". Due to quirks in how they abuse statistics (in their case it's more art than science), the real unemployment rate ranges from over 9% to 12.5% depending on whether you count "man hours" and the temporary effects of the seasonal employment during the holidays. There are other ways to "massage" the numbers too but I have discussed that in detail before.

Druid � Misetich � Oil ends up in the "international" pool of oil for sale so Yukos oil to the US is essentially meaningless. It is also the reason the Arab oil embargo ultimately failed. Besides, Russian oil production peaked in the late 1970's and has still not recaptured peak production. So far the Caspian Sea oil bonanza has been a bust. It should be no surprise that a weaker US dollar would result in a pricing change in either a higher dollar price band or in another currency. The question is how weak the major currencies get in comparison against one another (it's really relative as all are weakening) while the "currency war" continues (aka "competitive currency devaluation"). Also, Yukos has had a lot of attention from China for oil as demand there has been growing almost exponentially as they dramatically industrializes. Note that the CEO of Yukos was arrested and imprisoned a few weeks ago and some suggest it was a political vendetta by President Putin because the former CEO supported the opposition in recent elections. He violated a deal among the oligarchs to stay out of politics. Russia is still quite a ways from being a true democratic republic with guarantees of individual rights.

Mabry21 � "Continentals" were hemp "currency" used to pay the US soldiers for the US revolution against the Brits. The paper became essentially worthless as political promises usually are. Thus the idiom "not worth a "continental". The pay was also supposed to promise land to participating US continental soldiers (yep, "traitors" if you were a Brit (Tory) supporter or "revolutionary" if you were a an American patriot). The victors get to write the history books. ;-) I don't know how long they circulated or how much they devalued or if they lasted into the time of Adams or not. Actually I have a couple of fairly decent notes (unfortunately not readily close at hand). The US used the Spanish silver reales and snipped them into eights (thus the term "pieces of eight"). Some US silver dollars and coin were minted fairly early and a surviving1804 silver dollar sold for over $4 million last year at auction (maybe the year before?). Anyway, it was the lack of gold and silver to pay for the war for independence that led to the creation of the nation's first fiat currency (that failed of course). The nation was deep in debt for quite some time afterward but it was necessary at the time. Remember that the US Constitution requiring gold and silver as money was not ratified for several years after victory against the Brits anyway an the people had to be prodded into voting to ratify the constitution and much of that was due to the writings of James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and one article John (?) who later became a supreme court justice in a series of newspaper articles that became known as the "Federalist Papers".

- Black Blade

Golden Era

(12/10/2003; 00:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113171)

POG Competition

Thank you Sir Gandalf the White. It is indeed a great honor to have won this prestigious competition amongst many Greats. I shall look upon this 9th Day of December in the Year 2003 as my true certification into knighthood. This prized winning of a German "20 Mark" GOLD piece shall have the distinct veneration as my lucky gold coin (0.2304 oz. of Au) !!!!!

Last but not least, I would like to thank Sir M.K. for his generous contribution for making this POG Competition possible.

Black Blade

(12/10/2003; 02:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113172)

Debut Of Gold Bullion Securities On LSE Exceeds WGC's Wildest Hopes.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Dec-2003/BullionSecurities101203.htm

Snippit:

James Brown, chief executive of the World Gold Council, was in ebullient form at the party given on the 23rd floor of the London Stock Exchange last night to celebrate the first day's trade in Gold Bullion Securities. The listing had been announced the previous Tuesday and the WGC caught a lot of people on the hop by coming out with an invitation to a press conference at later the same morning. It appeared that they could hardly believe their luck that the prospectus was actually being published.

This was hardly surprising after the long drawn out wrangling with the NYSE and the SEC over the gold investment vehicle proposed for the US which has gone on for more than a year. As a result the WGC has been inhibited from actively marketing gold which is its raison d�etre. Maybe the Americans will now realise that London has taken the initiative in gold marketing and play catch-up.

When they see the result of the first day's trade in Gold Bullion Securities it will certainly wake them up. Over 24 tonnes of gold was sold on the first day's trade according to Rob Weinberg and Simon Village who are both directors of the company. This is equivalent to 746,400 ounces of gold which, at the present gold price, is worth over US$303 million. According to Gold Bullion's website it had only bought 14.89 tonnes of gold in advance so had to replenish supplies rather fast.

Black Blade: WGC sees offtake of 24 tons of gold in first day of ETF trade in London and has to scramble to buy more to meet demand. Not a bad start. No wonder the SEC is afraid and obeying their masters on Wall Street.

Black Blade

(12/10/2003; 04:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113173)

The Looming Energy Crisis and its Effect On Gold

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/temp/EnergyGold.pdf
Snippit:

As oil prices rise inflation starts to become noticeable, the average American only understands inflation when he sees the basic things that he pays for increase in price rapidly, when gas at the pump costs 5 dollars a gallon and milk 4 dollars a gallon he will snap out of his daze. The net effect is that this is all very very bullish for Gold and silver bullion. So make sure when someone asks the soon to become proverbial question "Got Gold". Your answer is "Your damn right I do" and not "what Gold isn't it supposed to be ancient relic "

Black Blade: I think most here already know where I stand on this issue. Worth a look - it looks like a cold winter may be on the way with a 3.5% decline in domestic NatGas production with a 5% to 10% increase in demand. Last year we had all time high storage levels and almost ran out ending at all time low storage - and that was a normal winter!!! And still no US energy policy and most promising hydrocarbon targets are "off limits" to drilling and production. Better make plans for Iraq as the 51st state. ;-)

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 05:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113177)

London ETF

@BB, et al

Reading the article on the WGC's London ETF, I noticed one error by the author. It was mentioned that the final trades were 1.98M units for $8.x M. At $41 bucks per, that should have been $82.xM.

With a $5 range for the day, if these trades entered the market in the AM at $40.7 and sold in the PM at $41.15, the trader may have made $0.9M. I didn't catch the margin requirements, but it seems like there is one more place for the big money to short gold when TPTB sees fit.

Does this just create one more paper vehicle for the shorts to manipulate with no real motivation to deal in physical gold??

Kev

(12/10/2003; 07:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113179)

Belgian court rejects lawsuit on cenbank assets

BRUSSELS, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Belgium's supreme court on Wednesday ruled against a group of minority shareholders in the country's central bank in a legal dispute over the ownership of the bank's assets.

The shareholders, led by advocacy group Deminor, had filed a lawsuit against the bank and the Belgian state. The state owns 50 percent of the bank.

Deminor was seeking to overturn a new law that would allow the bank, known as Banque Nationale de Belgique, to transfer its reserves to the state -- reserves that shareholders say should be the property of all shareholders in the bank.

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 07:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113180)

Belgian Reserves issue

@ Kev, Belgian:

Is this a confiscation issue?

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 07:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113181)

Straight up!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1$411.50

Paper Avalanche

(12/10/2003; 08:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113182)

Spot gold vs. futures....

It appears that spot gold is trading at $410.50 and the gold futures contract, as reported by Bloomberg, is trading at $409.50.

Physical breaking away from paper?

All comments welcome.

Paper Avalanche (literally)

R Powell

(12/10/2003; 08:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113183)

About that $500 POG....

Sometime during 2004?
We're up this morning about $4.00. How about, at this rate, before the end of January?
And silver? Big smile here....we've only just begun. There will be no implied threat of central bank selling for silver. There will be no decrease in the demand for industrial use. There is no room for very much "hot" investment money in this small market without much higher prices. There will be, however, great surprise among the paper market players at the strength of the silver move IF she really gets moving.
But beware, Rich, there most probably also will be some severe downturns as there will be for gold so stay alert, and lock in some profits along the way. But, this could be some fun. Have we waited long enough? I have.
Rich

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 08:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113184)

Quotes

@PA:

Between INO, FutureSource, Kitco, and Focus Direct, I see larger variations at any given moment on the SAME quote, based on latest trade, reporting delay, and various other trivial differences. I think when we hear about paper and physical separating, it refers to much greater margins of difference.

R Powell

(12/10/2003; 08:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113185)

Paper Avalanche

You may have been looking at delayed quotes but, if the price heats up enough, we may see the contango disappear. Take a look at soybean prices which are about $1.00/bushel higher in the near term than for future deliveries. With the beans, there may literally be no beans left at some time next summer before the 2004 harvest.
Difficulties in immediate spot delivery of gold or silver would probably invert metals' prices in the same way.
Rich

mikal

(12/10/2003; 08:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113186)

Big tech stocks get last rites

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2003-12-09-fourhorse_x.htmPosted 12/9/2003 11:05 PM�� Updated 12/9/2003 11:16 PM
Four Horsemen of Internet see tough times
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Excerpts:
"Before the Internet bubble burst, there were four companies that, in Wall Street's eyes, could do no wrong: Cisco (CSCO), EMC (EMC), Sun Microsystems (SUNW) and Oracle (ORCL). Prosperous records, real products and soaring profits earned them the nickname, "the Four Horsemen of the Internet." They've had a tough three years. Orders dried up as large corporate customers stopped buying products."

"Our bet is that most of those tech darlings of 1997 to 1999 will not be the darlings of 2004 to 2006," says money manager Donald Straszheim of Strazheim Global..."

Melting Pot

(12/10/2003; 08:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113187)

US economy mirror image of Enron and Arthur Anderson accounting techniques

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031210/bs_nm/economy_growth_dcRevisions: Economy Shrank Pre-Recession

SNIP:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter of 2000, the government said on Wednesday in revisions to official figures that showed America was on the brink of recession months earlier than previously thought.

The sweeping changes by the Commerce Department (news - web sites) also downgraded the expansion that followed the 2001 slump, albeit only slightly.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031210/bs_nm/economy_growth_dc

Gee, who would'da thought it! Nice timing tho, pull the accurate data out as a revision when the economy doesn't turn as planned for use in the political arena....

Freddie Mac Paying $125 Million Civil Fine to Settle Allegations of Management Misconduct

SNIP:

"The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which supervises Freddie Mac and its larger rival Fannie Mae, also released Wednesday a critical report citing "a pattern of inappropriate conduct and improper management of earnings" at the company and even "a disdain for appropriate disclosure standards" among former executives."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/031210/freddie_mac_fine_1.html

Steal $5 billion in return for a $125 million slap on the wrist? Where do I sign up!

All of this under the regulatory noses of the Congress, Treasury, FTC and SEC. I smell a big fat rat farm of looters and plunderers!

admin

(12/10/2003; 09:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113188)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News. . .

Impressive surge at NY open.......Intraday chart

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Congrats to the Winners!!

CoBra(too)

(12/10/2003; 10:07:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113190)

EU is distancing itself from US strategic Paper

Multilaterism seems acceptable, though the differences are to be found between lines.
As the US paper uses the word pre-emptive in its strategic concept - as Afghanistan and Iraq have had to witness - the EU paper, authored by Javier Solana introduced the word "preventive", instead!

....And while the US feel the need to go alone against terror and proliferation of WMD's, in total disregard to existing international institutions, the EU takes a more measured stance. The UN Security Council still holds priority to any nation reneging its effectiveness.

This kind of reasoning of the US comes close to the reasoning of Nazi Germany in the 30's, I'm afraid, though not afraid enough to not state my misgivings.

Apart of the geo-political and - economical consequences such divergence in policy may lead to, the main question going forward will be the unsustainable twin deficits of the US.

Empires have been eradicated with less debt historically. And as noone wishes a systemic currency melt down - it may be too late to avoid it.

Personally, I'm not looking forward to the consquences of the unwinding of, primarily the US debt berg, though I feel we'll have to cope with it.

Gold, while being the only protection finacially, will only meliorate the consequences in a world none of us would like to experience - though experince we will! cb2

admin

(12/10/2003; 10:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113191)

doco

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlPls go back and review our rules before posting.

You broke two of them: Infringed on a copyright and posted an e-mail address.

Gandalf the White

(12/10/2003; 10:41:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113192)

RUN SPOT, RUN !!!! --- Paper Avalanche !!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1CABAL wishes us to know that they are not DEAD YET !
"SOON though, we shall see", say SPIKE !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 11:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113193)

Tug of War

Watching the Dx and Spot POG today reveals an interesting tug of war that qactually began last night with BOJ intervention in the currency markets. Knowing dogs as well as I do, Spot and Spike will not miss a chance to play! The weak stomached should consider a dramamine patch.

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 11:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113194)

Medicare Drug bill

Pfizer's CEO was on CNBC explaining that the elimination of drugs coming to the US from Canadian pharmacies was "necessary" because 88% of the drugs coming back to the US were "fake or counterfeit". If he is so concerned that US patients would be harmed by these drugs, why is there no outrage about the 88% drug piracy rate in Canada? Do the drug companies feel no responsibility for their Canadian customers? What's going on in their Canadian distribution channels? They certainly demonstrated no public concern before the medicare legislation.

I smell a rat as well. The Demo debaters suggested that the energy bill and the Medicare drug bill were "bought and paid for" by the oil and drug comapnies. It's hard not to believe that when these CEOs are so comfortable in their out and out fabrication.

Melting Pot

(12/10/2003; 11:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113195)

3 day dollar chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iLooks like a head and shoulders formation is possibly forming on the 3 day dollar chart. FGoing to be watching this very closely. A break down here will be disasterous for the greenback. NIA

steady

(12/10/2003; 11:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113196)

1%, 5% , 10%

the higher gold goes the longer i have to wait for that one day 10% reevaluation on gold. i use to hope it came at 270 and would be 27 federal reserve notes , then it was at 330 where i was looking for a 33 one day increas, now at 407 i have to look for a 40.7 one day increase , thats why its almost laughable at the way the paper game on dishonest street with those company certificates are being sold off all over a less than a 1% decrease in price, it is very obvious that they liars over on fall st want as many of those shares as possible. ever see themnm same paper company certificates increase as much with less than a 1% increase?
got gold?
when will we see teh one day 5% increase in gold?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/10/2003; 12:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113199)

The days are flying by!!

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Caradoc

(12/10/2003; 13:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113200)

Important for all (Tell me if I'm wrong)

My favorite gold stock's press release today announcing that they've recently sold their 8.1 ton stockpile of processed gold at an average price of $388 has a between-the-lines message that's important to anyone involved in physical gold....

First off, the average price of 388 says (duh) that they've been selling since some point before gold got to 388 and sold the rest after that point; in short, contributing to the available supply over a period of at least several weeks. Note that when a central bank announces that they're "going" to sell 6 or 8 or 10 tons, the price of gold invariably drops in fear of the "pending" sale. As most here believe, such "sales" generally amount to after-the-fact recognition of transactions that have already taken place; and -- despite that -- such announcements cause POG to drop. In contrast, today's press release reveals that, while the ratio of supply and demand over the last several weeks saw gold rising tens of dollars per ounce, the rate of that rise has been restrained by the totally unpublicized sale more than EIGHT TONS of gold.

Now that that restraining factor is history, guess what is about to happen to the price of gold even if demand simply remains constant? Arithmetic answer: tens of dollars per ounce over the next several weeks, maybe to $430 or $440.

Two questions:
(1) How quickly to the sub-450 level if the market anticipates that it's coming?
(2) What if -- instead of remaining constant -- demand continues to rise as it did during the last couple of weeks while the 7th and 8th tons were being sold?

Just for fun, a third question: what if both the above kick in at the same time? My hunch is that even without short covering we could be looking at $500 by Christmas.

Thoughts, anyone?

Caradoc

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/10/2003; 13:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113201)

Page Update!

Husky

(12/10/2003; 13:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113202)

Cabal does the Titanic

It would appear that the good ship Cabal
has just stood up on one end in preparation
for its slide into deep ignominity. Maybe
one day Renaldo will be allowed to open its
empty safe on live TV to the delight of
millions.

Black Blade

(12/10/2003; 13:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113203)

Goldilox

As I understand it the London Exchange gold ETF is not open to loans or options related activity but only sold as "units" representing one tenth an ounce. If the big players were to short gold they would more likely just go to the commodities exchanges where the rules are fairly relaxed for preferred clients and shorting activity is as common as the common cold. I don't see this ETF as another means for shorting activity as it can't be leveraged with margin (so they claim).

- Black Blade

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 13:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113204)

GG DIVIDEND EFFECT

@ Caradoc:

I'm no expert, but GG shares (-5%) got hammered today only slightly more than Anglo (-3%) and Newmont (-3%), two of Wall St's favorites. Checking the juniors, I see losses from 5-10%, with most rebounding somewhere between their 13-day and 50-day MAs. GG touched their 50dMA, but bounced from that point.

My personal belief is that the "Barron's effect" shook out the early profit takers and offered believers a new entry point. Time will, of course, tell if this is the case, but even after dropping $9 intersession, gold is still only a couple bucks below yesterday. The chart looks like a hatchet job, but the support levels look pretty firm to me.

These are just one man's beliefs and observations.

Aristotle

(12/10/2003; 15:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113205)

Classic!

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-n10221764-u2&date=20031210&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwI know this is a Gold discussion forum and not a stock discussion forum, but I hope you'll indulge me this article as I make a point. The article above says it all:

= = =

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Goldcorp Inc. handed its investors a double-edged sword on Wednesday, announcing the reward of an unexpected dividend, but its stock and bullion tumbled on news that the payout was being funded from the sale of its gold arsenal.

A staunch supporter of bullion that argues that gold is money, Toronto-based Goldcorp has steadily built up a stash of nearly 270,000 ounces of bullion over the past two years.

But on Wednesday the gold miner said it had sold its entire cache, equal to the annual output of a mid-sized gold miner, to take advantage of stronger bullion prices.

= = =

Am I alone in this thinking, or can anyone else clearly see why you can't legitimately own Gold by proxy? If you don't own the PHysical Gold and control it yourself, you really can't make a solid claim that you know what you have. It might seem like it's here today, but then gone tomorrow, and all without your say so. Your portfolio is left twisting in the wind at precisely the time you need it anchored to bedrock. Sheeeeeeeeeesh.

The next question to be addressed is when will your favorite mining company announce its merger with Singer, and commence forthwith in the production of knitting needles and sewing machines?

All together now: "Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!"

Gold. Get YOU some. It's not a proxy thing, boys. --- Aristotle

CoBra(too)

(12/10/2003; 15:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113206)

Ari - Re: GG

Even if I'm not with you - all the time - I'm wondering about a special dividend by GG priced - way below the market - at 388$/oz!

Is it only bad IR or rather irresponsible idiocy of a company telling the world that you can choose reality - gold -or cash dividends ... Now, can you?

Please pass on the Q to Rob McCewan ... I'm at a loss ...
cb2

Dollar Bill

(12/10/2003; 15:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113207)

*>*............

you might remember that chicken that made some bread and a number of farm animals said no. But, the did want to eat the bread. She said only those that helped get to eat.
...The US administration just told canada, russia, the hussein booster club, that would be france germany, belgium ect, and I believe I heard china....that they will not get to bid on iraq work.
They can however qualify if thier behaviour changes.

Seems almost daily lately there is financial issues and cold war between the US and its opponents.
I am sure the steel fight by euro ticked off the US.
I suspect that the dollar will go quite low before bottoming out.
Unless the euro boys cry "uncle", I suspect they and thier
fluid cast of possible allies will bear the brunt of economic trouble.

Saudi's comment "good ole dollar" had to hurt.
alkyda, chirac, hussein, played bad chess.
If bush thought there was a problem, he would have fought
recent US senate behaviours. He has been told something else.

Dollar Bill

(12/10/2003; 15:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113208)

*>*............

"Very interesting, the news last night, that Bush is warning Taiwan (yet another long standing ally we're about to piss off) not to try and break away from China. I guess he knows which side his bread is buttered on. Don't forget, he's supposed to want a soft dollar. Isn't China the number two purchaser of agency debt? Aren't they and Japan pretty much the only ones keeping the dollar slide comfortable?"

slingshot

(12/10/2003; 16:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113209)

Slingshot's Gold Report.

ZUBAZOOOOOOOOOOM!It's great to be a Goldbug. A spike to $412 and a pull back to $405. Talk on the televison of Gold going to $500. Gold being placed into the Kettles of the Salvation Army. Bless those generous souls. More advertisements than you can shake a stick at proclaiming Gold as wealth protection.
Each resistance level has fallen. Maybe not to our expected speed but, none the less fallen.
Time to pay tribute to those posters like Ari, Belgian,Black Blade and M.K. and all those at USAGOLD,Who Stayed the Course. And to all the rest who come here.You have provided the pieces that present a clearer picture of gold and where it is going. For this information comes from the Heart.
Trust your Instincts. Fiat is Fake. Gold is REAL!

Congrats to the winners of the contest.

We are all Winners here at USAGOLD.
Slingshot--------------<>

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 16:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113210)

Iraq contracts

@ Dollar Bill, et al:

There is some response from the Euro block and Canada to Wolfie's proclamation. They had previously been asked to "donate" funds for reconstruction, and have threatened to withhold their contribution if they are "blacklisted" from prime contractor status.

Some of the hullabaloo centers around the fact that Halliburton has been accused by US officials of double charging for everything they supply in Iraq, for which they present "risk" as the motivation. Of course, presently they have a monopoly on everything they supply, thanks to their relationship with Cheney.

The complete story is actually more complex than Wolfie's proclamation.

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 16:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113211)

GG Dividend

Ari, et al:

Goldcorp is a "producer", and I cannot really comment on the quantity of their sales, I believe that they are in the business of producing and selling gold, not hoarding all of it. The numbers might be worth a good discussion, but if they "never" sold gold, they would have an unsuccessful business model. I also think that returning dividends is more shareholder responsive than continuing to build a massive "war chest" like Microsoft or Cisco.

As a shareholder, I would have preferred they sent me physical, but I can always spend the dividend at CPM to accomplish that purpose.

CoBra(too)

(12/10/2003; 16:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113212)

@ Dollar Bill

Looks like that some, who haven't been with US - won't get any of the spoils!

What a pity, considering the (ongoing) devastation in the region! Let US do it all by US ... and (don't worry) be happy! ... While u can... cb2

Socrates964

(12/10/2003; 16:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113213)

Who remembers MacGregor's missive castigating the Canadian government for refusing to push Canada into the front line of Dubya's war in Iraq?

Well, far be it from me to reopen an old off-topic debate about the ethics of the above. I merely wanted to suggest that a CEO who feels a patriotic calling of this kind might well feel that feeding his company's gold into the fires of fiat to shore up confidence in the US economy and hence the war effort was a noble act that transcended the ignoble motive of boosting shareholder value, particularly if he was called on to do so. Just a thought from a former shareholder, FWIW!

Max Rabbitz

(12/10/2003; 16:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113214)

Gold Selling by Gold Corp Seems Odd

I wonder if the Canadian authorities applied any persuasion in the matter. To have more gold than the host country could be a bit embarrassing. And of course the war to save paper fiat money is a serious matter. Governments have many tools at their disposal. A major reason the currency of resource rich countries has appreciated so much recently is that the market knows these governments can support their paper with an "excess profits" tax if needed, or confiscate outright. They'd have to be real desperate to try to confiscate my little stash.

CoBra(too)

(12/10/2003; 17:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113215)

The inimitable Mogambo Goru quotes:

The most inimitable Richard Russell, he of the Dow Theory Letters, writes memorable things, and that is partly why is newsletter is so successful for the last four or five decades. For instance, he penned "All the gold mined in the history of the world amounts to about $1.4 trillion. And there's the US government spending an amount equal to 70% of that in just the single year 2004. And then we have the years 2005 and 2006 to worry about."

He also opines that "The system of fiat money is really immoral, almost evil. It will not last." Well, most of us already know that. But what is the time frame? He says that it is shorter than you think, and that "Most of us will live to see the complete destruction of the US dollar." And when he says "most of us" he obviously means himself, too, and that is why he used the term "us," and I note with some alarm that Mr. Russell ain't no spring chicken. So the time frame must be pretty short".

Amen to this statement ... unfortunately ... cb2

CoBra(too)

(12/10/2003; 17:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113216)

... And would like to add

The inimitable "Barrons", once a serious business paper, or is it now "rag" has already killed one gold stock - Royally! - Has now to set out to kill an entire industry - including rags!

From rags to riches is a cliche', now only to be found in China ... as long as these entrepeneurs convert their fiat to reality in time!

Got Gold? cb2

Cometose

(12/10/2003; 17:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113217)

hui selloff

I have been watching the price movement of the silver/gold miners during the recent run up of spot silver from 5.20 to 5.67 today ......there have been many days in the last 6 weeks where the sellers would short the dickens out of Hecla and CDE in the morning anticipating a reversal in the price of spot .......many (most) of the days I was paying attention to this ....the share price of these two companies recovered toward the end of the day quite nicely ....these were 30 or 40 cent moves...that happened in a day and then recovered......most of losses....So in the last two days we have these two companies getting hit pretty good.......and they didn't recover ......still anticipating a reversal in the metals.....5.20 -5.70 is a pretty good move.....I thought we might have a little stall somewhere too.....but in spite of the fed meeting yesterday which was a moot event....and in spite of the hammering the hui took and the aforementioned retracement in price of hecla and cde......I have a little feeling inside that the manipulators of the stock prices of these silver cos are not going to get any reprieve and that perhaps we are not going to get a pause that refreshes.....so all I have to say to all those that are short selling gold and silver is .........You BETTER HAVE A LOT OF TAMPONS ON HAND BECAUSE THERE MAY BE A LOT OF BLEEDING SOON....................

21mabry

(12/10/2003; 17:51:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113218)

This seems a strange reverse of buisness strategy for GG especially as gold is in a bull market.I would think that bullion would offer a better return in 2004 than cash.Something seems to have made them do an about face.Barrons may have done metal stock holders a favor,they seem to have given a buying oppurtunity that may not have occured but for their article.21

Aristotle

(12/10/2003; 17:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113219)

My special holiday wish...

is that Goldilox is the only person to have missed my point, and that he/she finds it before the night is through.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Mr Gresham

(12/10/2003; 17:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113220)

Aren't markets wonderful?

Just a couple incomplete thoughts to check in with here, briefly (and to show I'm still alive and breathing...)

I'd been lashing myself over missing the stock run-up (and picking the wrong ones and wrong timing during my few small short visits to that side of the street) and even thinking of cadging some sympathy here. Oh, the things I've watched, and watched, and watched. Took three called strikes. Boo-hoo. OK, enough. Looks like somebody's spooking the stocks today, so it re-opens the picture again.

Kudos to those who've made their two-, three- and more-baggers there -- you DESERVE! Most of you rode out the down years and overcame the depressing effects of feeling like those "gold losers" others saw us as.

Me, I over-estimated the systemic risks during this whole time. I really now see what a conservative investor I am. But I scare myself with financial "ghost stories" and often want to over-dramatize things (or simply can't see the timeframes and sequences in which things are most likely to play out.) Hey -- slack, please -- I'm new at all this!

Growing up and living in the fiat world is disorienting of all rational economic thought, methinks. You're always trying to outguess the next maniac!

What I should have allowed myself to see is that gold 250-400 was likely to be a system-safe (relatively safe) time period. And now, well, from here on, not so safe?

Anyway, the odds of a system blow-up (in which you cannot collect your paper winnings so easily, or in full) are higher in any given interval going forward, IMO. POG is both an indicator of systemic stress, and likely to trip some balance sheet implosions out there. Physical's in-hand safety trade-off with paper's leverage make it a difficult choice, at this point in time. (Of course, there's always diversification ;)

Agree or disagree?

slingshot

(12/10/2003; 18:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113221)

Gold's Aborption Rate

As we bask in the POG over $400, I have to ask what would send the POG down to maybe $350? How about $330. Ohh, $330 gold again. Could it be an outrite dump of some major CB tons of the yellow metal on the market? For us who have climbed the wall and now stand atop,would we faulter in our principles and beliefs and throw in the towel. Nay I say! As the never stopping printing press of FIAT and increasing limit of personal debt,the trade deficeit and government spending would still be at our doorstep.Nothing would have changed for the better. So, my fellow Knights and Ladies would those who have called us nuts be willing to accept that the fundamentals have not changed and that their lamention could be resended as a second chance was within their grasp. In the beginning as gold slipped to $254 it was a bad investment and now at $404 it is too expensive!
When gold hit $850 and Silver $50 was it for all the wrong reasons? And those who held on did not truly understand the market. They were fortune seekers who rode the band wagon.
I think this is where we fail to make believers out of non-believers. This nation is a nation of debtors and not savers.Those who have extra to invest are bonded to to the paper circus and have never experienced the ravages of inflation,recession or depression.
If this was to become reality and the POG plummet I would have to say that due to the recognition of gold today that any pullback would be absorbed and the price rebound.

We may see major swings in the POG yet.

Slingshot-------------------<>

Mr Gresham

(12/10/2003; 18:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113222)

And, also...

seeing that blank spot on the INO box above here -- quick stop in my breath -- you just know that someday we might see a blank like that -- on all the paper market scoreboards -- and (trying to recall FOA's thoughts here) find that it re-opens trading again in a completely different ballpark...

Mr Gresham

(12/10/2003; 18:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113223)

slingshot

Pulled out my wallet at the store today, dropped it, and all over the floor: dollar bills, business cards, receipts, scribbled notes, a pen... My next thought, as I crawled around recovering them:

Brittle systems break.

Swings, yes. And with each POG swing, like a thin metal bar bent back and forth, closer to "separation".

A certain amount of the remaining flexibility spent, to get it down again. Many more weak hands driven out, more "giants" getting their kids' trust funds on board. In it to win it.

How about this little goodie from Sinclair yesterday quoting China Daily in September:

"Prominent gold experts and officials are urging the government to lift the ban on individual trading as soon as possible. 20% of respondents in a recent national survey said that they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings on gold investments.

"Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert, estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion Yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market. "

What's that -- about 3000 tonnes?

(My question for those people always is -- what about the other 70-90 per cent?)

slingshot

(12/10/2003; 19:11:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113225)

Mr Gresham

That's It! The other 70 to 90% Broaden the base. The wider the base the less shock. It is a battle for the minds. A position of presumed wealth ingrained within the average person that it is unbelievable that this paper will degrade.
How far has it degraded? Feel the new bills. Fake! Drop the change on the counter. Fake! Drop a Gold or Silver Eagle on the counter. I have. I wanted to hear them ring.
Heck drop a credit card on the counter;0) So when the run from the stock market to bonds to treasuries, real estate and any other cockamaymie idea, the end results will be precious metals. The only difference is how many find the truth before its too late.

Slingshot-----------<>

21mabry

(12/10/2003; 19:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113226)

Gold

It seems TPTB shot some heavy ammo today.Bank of Japan sold alot of Yen to help stabalize the U.S.D.GG playing the role of a small central bank and releasing its metal hoard into the market.A major financial publication attacking mining stocks.The fed maintaing historical low interest rates.What does it all mean?21

steady

(12/10/2003; 20:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113227)

my own proxy

uh aristotle you mean i can be my own proxy?
me: hey proxy go get me some gold
me/proxey: uh ok.
yep gold sure aint a proxy thing!

specie-man

(12/10/2003; 20:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113228)

Some observations about the silver & gold coin/bar market

I recently spent some time poking around eBay. I also happened to be driving by a local coin store so I stopped in to take a look around.

I have made an interesting observaion. All of a sudden it seems, a lot more people are bidding up the bulk silver coin lots on eBay, and are looking for it at local outlets. Along with other bullion items, of course.

I used to be able to buy small quantites of 80% Canadian silver coins now and then at at several percentage points BELOW the "melt" value. Today the going rate that I was quoted was about 4% OVER melt. And on eBay, the same thing seems to be happening. In years past, when silver went higher, the discount on bulk coins increased. This time, however, the opposite seems to have occurred. This, I would say, is a bullish indicator.

At the coin store today, one guy came in and sold two $1000 bags of 90% silver, along with some Australian silver/gold/platinum sets. Another guy came in and said "I want to buy $10,000 worth of silver today - what is the best way to do it ?". A couple college-age guys came in and one was looking at and asking about gold, "what would a Maple Leaf sell for today ?". The shop was definitely busy.

Me ? I bought a couple "Peace" silver dollars for $8.50 . That was about all I could afford.

I suppose one could also take all this as a contrarian indicator. I'm thinking the metals prices may now pull back by 5% or so before moving up again, but who knows.

Gandalf the White

(12/10/2003; 21:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113229)

CHART Question <;-)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GSTUDY THIS CHART for a while and THEN YELL --- WOWSERS !!!
---
NOTE the last few HIGH VOLUME, UP days in the last days.
(The gray vertical bars on the baseline are UP days and the red vertical are DOWN days.)
---
Can you guess between the BOJ and the ESF, which one spent the most to "PROP-UP" the 30 Year Bond ?
---
AND note that it makes NO DIFFERENCE in which way it is headed !! --- (as indicated by the bottom MACD graph !)
---
Do you think that Ari is correct when he asks, "GOT GOLD?"
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/10/2003; 21:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113230)

Can someone tell me WHY ? (ANOTHER question ! ) <;-)

http://www.ino.com/?afWhy does INO have six digits after the decimal point, tonight?
Are they getting ready for GOLD priced in the THOUSANDS ?
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/10/2003; 21:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113231)

The days are flying by!!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

10 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

Goldendome

(12/10/2003; 21:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113232)

Specie Man- Your walk to the bars. (Au/Ag)

Sir Specie-man: The chatter about Silver is increasing. Of late when talking Gold on occasion, the other party will interject: "and what about Silver?"

The Gold/Silver ratio has decreased from the high seventies-low eighties in the early part of the year (say May and June) to the low seventies now. Maybe this is a trend--maybe it's a sign that more people are aquiring silver?? I don't claim to know.

I do know that after not buying any Silver for nearly a year and a half, I bought two ten oz. bars myself yesterday...So..

As the financial woes increase and the price of Gold increases;;; I feel that many of those coming to physical later, may be looking at Silver, particularly if they have more limited budgets. I have seen lately rather (outrageous ?) future estimates for the price of Silver ranging up to $200/oz !!!! (Personally I'd just LOVE to see $20.00 again).

I don't know where you're buying this Silver under spot, but keep it up!! Most of the Silver that I see is priced about a buck over spot--at least!! And more if you have to figure in the price of shipping.

Gold is still the best way to go, and those of us in early must be thankful. There will come a time when, I feel, many of us won't be able to buy it! It may become like the waning final hours of bimetallism in this country, when the "big money guys" controlled all the gold and the little guys were left the silver.

By the way: I just love the design of those Peace Dollars that you bought.

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 22:24:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113233)

Thanks Ari

Thanks for the holiday wish, Ari. I'll take all the encouragement and and education you folks can offer!! I don't think I completely missed your point. I was just trying to figure out any alternative reasons for them to sell into the market. Sometimes I wonder why my local dealer doesn't close his doors and hoard everything in his shop, but I remember he is, in fact, a dealer. If Michael did that we'd all be in the dark. The larger reasons for GG selling SO MUCH gold are exactly what I count on you guys to help me with. I ask a lot of questions on this forum that go unanswered (perhaps because they seem too ignorant to some), but I always appreciate a deeper explanantion when I can get it. hey, sometimes it takes a couple decryptions to sink in, but I'm willing.

Thanks again,
Sir G'lox

Chris Powell

(12/10/2003; 22:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113234)

Don't hit the bottle just yet; hit the moving averages instead

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1808Latest GATA dispatch.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1808

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(12/10/2003; 22:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113235)

GoldCorp Gold Sales, Dividend, and Inventory Rebuild

http://www.goldcorp.com/
Snippit:

We continue to hold two fundamental beliefs about gold, First, that Gold is money, a fact we have been able to demonstrate with this special dividend and Second, that it remains in the early stage of a major multi - year bull market. As a result of these beliefs we have begun rebuilding our gold inventory and we will again continue to hold back approximately 10% of our production from sale. This is in anticipation of higher gold prices which will allow us to continue to generate further earnings growth and increased dividends to our shareholders.

HOW MUCH GOLD SHOULD WE HOLD BACK?

Our shareholders have been very enthusiastic supporters of our gold inventory program. We are pleased to have been able to reward this support with true bottom line value. However, we would like our shareholders to tell us how much gold we should continue to hold back. Is 10% enough? Your views matter to us - please let us know. We would also encourage other gold companies to follow our lead and generate higher returns to their shareholders by holding back a portion of their gold production. Gold is Money and Gold is in a Bull Market!

Goldcorp's Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED and pays a dividend twelve times a year. Goldcorp's shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.

Black Blade: OK for disclosure purposes I am a shareholder of GG. I am not going to make any buy, sell, or hold recommendations here � that's your own personal investment decision! That said, I do not see any details stating that the company sold all their gold. The Canadian Loonie is rising against the US dollar and gold is priced in dollars while their costs are in Loonies and Toonies. They state that they continue to believe that gold is money and will continue to hold gold in inventory. They also ask their shareholders how much gold they should continue to hold (see above in the press release). They state that they will rebuild inventories as well. The Red Lake Mine is their flagship operation and they have their fingers in a few pies and look to continue investing into promising explorers for a stake. Meanwhile reserves have expanded wildly at the mine. The problem is that they cannot continue indefinitely as a "one trick pony" either even though they have several years� worth of the lowest cost reserves in the industry. Of course they are unhedged and debt free � not a bad position to be in. I would suggest that the sales not only are to "share the wealth" with shareholders (a rare or unknown concept among most any publicly traded company I any industry), but the excess funds could be used to acquire a "piece of the action" of promising projects for what is now pennies on the dollar in a major historic gold bull market. In this way they can become not only gold producer, gold banker and acquirer, but essentially pick up where companies like the old Euro-Nevada and Royal Gold left off by also becoming a gold royalty trust company � that is letting other producers take the risk and in turn raking in a pile of cash and precious metals. As far as the inventory rebuild and "how much gold they should retain" question is concerned you are being asked by the company what you think (see the snippit above). If you are a shareholder (or even a potential shareholder) then see the link and make your statement in regard to the question and ask "investor relations" for the details and info � they do (at least for me have) answer your questions. They are not snobbish dweebs like you would expect from a typical NYSE company. I think that they should continue to hold a physical position of at least 10% even considering the huge high-grade reserves in the ground. But since this subject has been raised � make your concerns known and contact the company � after all they can't reach through the modem and slap you around for asking. ;-)

BTW, if you read today's DMR and several DMRs in the past few months you would know that I have recommended physical PMs over shares as the metals prices have been selling at a bargain against the shares at current prices - I guess I beat Barron's to the punch for quite some time. Just remember that we are only in the beginning stages of a multi-year secular "Gold Bull Market". Get that metal and build a firm foundation first in your wealth pyramid before expanding outward in ever more specualtive investments and ventures. Oh yeah, two more weeks until Xmas - check out the offerings at USAGOLD for gifts that keep on giving! Maybe help a parent or sibling get a taste of "investment" security or just a very nice hierloom to be handed down over time from one generation to the next.

specie-man

(12/10/2003; 22:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113236)

@ Goldendome - gold/silver coins/bars

The only decent silver coins or bars I've ever seen go for under spot are the Canadian 80% circulated coins, and a few years ago, some US 90% dimes & quarters and some 40% Kennedy halves. But it was't much under melt, and it doesn't seem to be available anywhere now at a discount like it was.

The nicer 10 oz bars always seem to carry a premium. I've never seen any priced at or near "spot". Always $0.50 or more over "spot" per ounce.

Everybody seems to like the "Morgan" silver dollars. I've always liked the Peace type better (partly because they are cheaper), and I think a lot of the Peace dollar dates are under-rated. BTW, the two I got were better dates (1927-S and 1934), so they were a pretty good deal.

Goldilox

(12/10/2003; 22:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113237)

PruBear Market report

http://prudentbear.comRob Peebles, in his inimatible style:

snippit:

Like a boxer after several rounds of a whipping, OPEC may be ready to say "no mas" to the dollar. According to news reports, Secretary General Alvaro Silva said that OPEC "is considering trading oil in euros to compensate for the US dollar's decline in value." Or the organization may do something else, like trade in a basket of currencies. OPEC's recent decision not to reduce oil output was attributed to the hit they have taken from a weakening dollar.

Repeat: There is no inflation

Thanks in part to low-carb, high-protein diets, egg prices are on the rise, and have hit prices not seen in 20 years. There are no reports from the Fed as to whether or not chickens are more productive.

According to Boston.com, the Governor of New Hampshire is not going to take it anymore. He's going to set up a program to import prescription drugs from Canada in clear defiance of the FDA. Other rebels considering the issue include the mayor of Boston and the states of Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan.

G'lox: Thanks Jon for the additional insite into GG. I acquired some more today at the 50dMA as fuel for next year's capital gains.

steady

(12/10/2003; 23:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113238)

stuff.

if you know what you know then you have to say what you have to say especially when its the truth.

open the mint , save the planet, free gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

steady

(12/10/2003; 23:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113239)

throwing the gauntlet down/missed by many.

if you reread the gold corp pr you will see they are chalenging other cos to follow there lead, ask the people of any good organization or team how easy it is to follow when you have 1) winners souronding you and 2) someone who wants to lead, but not only that but has repeatedly qtr after qtr can beat the competition and deliver. gold corp offers both qualities.
who will pick up the tourch and join gg and i am gold as the holders of honest money. any one of the top 10 mining companies would be a good place to look.but im afraid there to stick in past business practices to notice the mold for mining companies has been broken. a new more dynamic responsive , gold holding culture is developing as an off shoot of ecoism ( come on i had to work that in as that ois what is happening on a personal, regioanl, cultural , national and world wide and to think that businesses wount participate in acquiring gold is a mistake, see ecoism is all encompassing when it comes to gold. see when we see a co like lets say sherwin williams cause tehy want to cover teh world in paint but when we see a co like that declaring that they are holding there profits in gold or silver then we will have know ecoism had run its rampant course thru the business world thanks to gold corp gauntlet thrown down on this fine day dec 10, 2003 a day that will live in honest money proponents hearts.
my ears are open and im waiting for a response as im gold corp. hello are you out there/ or is the any intelligent life on this planet.
If asked the question, why sell all your hard earned gold for a depreciating fiat currency?
what are you mining for? to make money, well sun of a gun gold is money so why sell it. i wonder what mining ceo could look you in the eye and tell you the honest truth lay it all out there.
so lets see who responds, what i am gold needs to do is come out announcing additiona bullion purchases (maybe tehy could use our hosts to do there bidding for them.) and back gold coprs claim as gold is money and challenge those that are developing to look to there two companies as models to base there business decisions upon and become simply more than i extration and sell to the banks type of operation. see iag needs to market it just a lil differetn for teh developers to go this direction , while gg encourages the producers, bingo we be coverd top to bottom. as what gold corp and i am gold are doing is on the wave of the future for what well managed professionally run gold mining companies will look like 20 years from now.
gold corp: looking for more company!

silver and gold
honest money for
honest people!

the present has happend lets look to the future.

Aristotle

(12/10/2003; 23:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113240)

Goldilox, I'll put my finger dangerously close to the point

If I'm not mistaken, GoldCarp was plenty happy to market itself to naive investors on the strength of its gimmicky physical Gold position -- loudly put forth as a sort of (lame) pretense that owning shares of the company were a suitable equivalent to owning the Gold itself. (I'm sure everyone well remembers McEwan's crowing about not just mining for Gold, but also his efforts at buying it in the open market.)

My simple point was, is, and continues to be this: You can't *OWN* by proxy. You either have Gold, or else you have something that isn't Gold.

That little lesson might not seem like much right now, if you look at mid-term graphs of relevant price performances, as the larger net gains are still on the side of the paper proxy. Yet this I deem -- the performance and satisfaction of paper proxies and its investors have NOT YET BEEN TESTED, and we are closer to the test now than ever we have been in the past six years.

No need to hold your breath over it. And no need to go down with the ship, either. Paper title, share of operation, etc. is no substitute for the Real Thing, no matter how loudly crowed or neatly printed.

My point.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steady

(12/10/2003; 23:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113241)

more stuff .. what the heck its always darkest before the light

with the upcoming winter solstice the next three weeks will be the darkest days of the year.
with nine days being on both sides of the swing date the solstice (dec 22) there is no other three week period that has longer nights than the three week period upcoming. just like what we saw today in the gold market survive this lil bumpin the road and brighter days will be ahead , not just for wealth preservation but on general discovery by people in all walks of life of the power teh allue and hopefully most importantly the true proper role of gold in controlling grred by those who run themonetary systems.
coming soon to you more sunlight and just like gold is currency specific in its appreciation so is the amount of sunlight increse is regional specific with those areas near the poles appreciating the fastes and those areas by the equator the slowest.

Black Blade

(12/11/2003; 01:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113242)

Market Wrap Up � Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snippit:

"Many Thanks to the BOJ"

Today the dollar firmed-up against most major currencies and money moved into Treasury bonds on speculation the Bank of Japan was selling yen to buy dollars, and would then use the dollars to purchase U.S. Treasury debt. Analysts close to the foreign exchange market suggested that Japan's central bank may have sold $5 to $6 billion in yen during overnight trading. Based on past occurrences, it is assumed that the yen sales would be used to support the falling U.S. dollar, and therefore support Japan's export industries. The Bank of Japan has sold $165 billion worth of yen this year alone in an effort to slow the decline of the U.S. dollar. I say many thanks to the Japanese, because without their support we would surely be looking at higher interest rates and a dollar with lower purchasing power. The Japanese have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt by 26% this year to almost $500 billion, so one must begin to wonder how much longer they will continue to increase their purchases of Treasury debt or if they are nearing the point of saturation.

Black Blade: The Japanese are just digging themselves deeper into a hole from which they will never reemerge. But if they are that foolish then "buy on"! Should be lotsa fun when they are left standing without a chair when th music stops.

Gondolin

(12/11/2003; 03:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113243)

Large Sales of Gold

Forgive my ignorance on the larger workings of CB buying and selling and Governmental buying and selling.

When it is disclosed that a CB sells large quantities of gold I am under the impression that it is not disclosed to whom it is sold. Is this correct? Likewise with the GG selling just announced, who has purchased the gold? Is it possible the Canadian Govt pressured GG to sell direct to them or another CB to replace the depleted Canadian gold reserves, possibly under advice of future hefty tax regimes on mined metal which would make the current sale more advantageous to GG.

Further, is much of this selling simply transferred ownership from one CB to another, in effect being a shift of the CB ownership of the bullion to another CB without the bullion disappearing from the 'collective' CB vaults.I have seen this suggested in the past(?)

When released to the market does it actually make it to the market to be swooped upon by whoever or does it just disappear to an undisclosed buyer?

This leads on to the next question with Treasury or Governmental purchasing - which must obviously be disclosed eventually - is it possible that CBs/ Governments are purchasing the gold, either directly or through proxies like the ESF, in an effort to re-stock the shortfalls leased from the CB vaults during the price suppression years?

There has been so much discussion that the state of the Fiat economies is in jeopardy, does it not make sense that Governments too would be seeking some form of insurance in the yellow metal?

Trust my line of questioning is clear, and would welcome any comments to clarify any of the above if I'm off target with my logic (or lack therof).

Black Blade

(12/11/2003; 05:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113244)

Gondolin

Good questions though. What CB gold are we talking about being sold - for example there has not been any independent audits of CB gold sitting in any vaults and sales are generally from one CB to another (essentially digital transfers on the bankers books). In fact it is "effectively" illegal to audit US gold supposedly held in Fort Knox. No one even knows if any gold actually exists in the "big white vault" or how much. Of course some sales may simply be currency paid by leasees to cover loaned gold that can't be returned to the bullion bank/central bank because it has long since been borrowed and sold. What can the bankers do? Rip gold necklaces off the necks of women, rings from their hands, and tear out their gold ear rings? There's probably a very good reason why the "buyers" aren't or can't be identified. This CB gold that is "officially" sold rarely if ever makes it to the open market.

- Black Blade

Kev

(12/11/2003; 06:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113245)

to goldilox msg #113180 (Central Bank Belgium)

Yes, basically it all boils down to a confiscation issue. Over the years Bank & State have been transferring reserves and surplus values of the Bank to the State without compensating the private shareholders who own 50%. It's just one Battle that's lost, but the War isn't over. There's also another procedure ongoing at the Court of Commerce in Brussels. The Supreme Court's ruling isn't final on the basic ground of the complaints. Moreover the lawyers of State&Bank are skating over thin ice because the Bank's and State's regulations are hyper contradictory & conflicting because of the typical Belgian build&fix methods. In the end if the State refuses to settle the whole thing through a fair deal with minority shareholders, we will take it to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. It's a long War, just like the BIS shareholders experienced. But in the end, Justice will prevail.

Belgian central bank's stock falls on court ruling

BRUSSELS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Shares in Belgium's central bank fell more than 16 percent on Thursday after a court ruled against minority shareholders who are fighting the bank over possession of its reserves.

Trading for the first time since the Supreme Court handed down its judgement on Wednesday, the bank's shares tumbled as much as 16.81 percent to 2,845 euros before recovering to 3,078 euros, down 10 percent on the day in active Brussels trade.

The shares had been suspended from trade since 1300 GMT on Wednesday in light of the ruling. The bank is one of the few central banks in Europe to have a stock listing.

A Brussels trader said the shares would remain volatile until the shareholders, represented by the advocacy group
Deminor, decided what to do next.

"If you bought into the (bank) on the possibility that you might get a part of the reserves, you've just realised that you have bought a lottery ticket," he said.

The Supreme Court ruled against the shareholders who had filed a lawsuit to overturn a 2002 law that transferred the bank's reserves to the Belgian state, saying they had misinterpreted it.

Deminor told Reuters after the ruling it had yet to decide whether to go to the European Court of Human Rights in
Strasbourg.

(Reuters)

Gondolin

(12/11/2003; 07:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113246)

ESF and murky off-shore entities

Black Blade thanks for your comments.

Again, excusing my grasp of the machinations of International trade, the larger bond and currency markets and reporting on transactions. The following is purely a line of thought not based on anything other than an amateur interpretation of possibilities in geo-political dealings.

The Exchange Stabilisation Fund / PPT is I believe purely set up to safeguard the US Dollar and economy against catastrophic events caused by geo-political or economic turmoil.

The PPT and its activities are particularly murky as many of the transactions they undertake could be considered to be covert rather than overt so as to avoid highlighting(hide) areas of concern in the economy, in effect manipulating the markets - which is deemed to be out of order in a so called Free Market.

There has been talk of the possibility, though unlikely, of the US revaluing its' gold reserves to market value rather than the old $42(?)/ounce figure that the reserves are currently valued at. Should the US do this, despite the vast debt mountain, how would this affect the imminent collapse in value of the US dollar. Would marking it to the POG allow the dollar to avoid collapse?

No-one knows where much of the gold on the market is going, who the end purchasers are. IS it possible that the US could be covertly buying bullion through the ESF/ PPT and /or those murky off shore conglomerates, and that this gold could be not only replacing sold reserves but actually increasing Treasury holdings, albeit discreetly?

Would the US Govt be chastised or praised if they had been quietly increasing gold reserves this whole time and successfully used gold to avoid a melt-down of the US economy?

Just another 'conspiracy' theory, but surely there must be someone at the top who has access to all the information we have access to, and has considered looking at some golden insurance?

Belgian

(12/11/2003; 07:17:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113247)

@Gondolin

Simply a reflexion (not an answer) on your question :
All fiat (currency) and all its derivatives are * political * - * paper * - * numeraires * ! It are the changing political balances of power that say what paper is exchangeable for.

For the time being, Gold, with its political overpowerment, has been "paperized".

* IMPOSSIBLE * to find out the whole truth about the totality of paper-gold-positions (visible + hidden ones). For this to remain so...ALL Physical Gold positions, around the globe, must remain absolutely hidden. Indirect evidence (to me) that one's Physical Gold position (CBs) is evolving to a crescendo importance !!! This in preparation for the transition (morphing) of the existing International Monetary System.

When Japan is selling yen for dollar...*who* is buying those yen from, and selling dollar to the Japanese ? Always ask yourself who has interest of standing on the other side of the coin. These currency "interventions" are *never* fully explained and absolutely untransparent. Draw the parallel with paper gold and Physical Gold. We always know who the sellers are and never who the buyers (holders) are and to what extend they buy and/or hold .

Goldmines don't give a damn as to where their Gold is going ! They are all in the paper gold business !

Currencies flip flop around in the daily forex caroussels.
The only currency that really matters, for the time being, is the dollar, "only" because of its "reserve" status.

Consider for instance how one has to interprete the play of "sell and lease back" ! How many, political, under the ledger, variables, are there in such a play as one example out of many others ?

Can and will the present International Monetary order remain functioning in its present form ??? I think it can't and wan't. The dollar-crisis has become too systemic for being able to survive for much longer. The stealth (!!!) "redistribution" of Physical Gold is imo a good barometer.

The number of all your paper assets can fluctuate wildly whilst GOLD remains.... GOLD.... forever. Once Gold has found its "appropiate" numeraire...it will fly !

Belgian

(12/11/2003; 07:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113248)

@Kev

Those private Belgian National Bank (BNB) (cfr. BIS) share-holders (50%) will have the choice between bonds (fiat derivative) or nothing as compensation. That's what those BNB shares were (should have been interpreted) in the first place. Not a participation in the ownership (profits) of the BNB enterprise, but a BNB bond. ALL paper (fiat derivative) is a * political numeraire * or a derivative therefrom. Even Private enterprises have to operate in a 100% fiat environment and are therefore, indirectly, politically interdependant. Only Freegold in a Free Gold Market is absolute freedom. The politicos know this better than anyone else.

So far, not a word about the goldsales of the BNB ! Note that Deminor remains very cautious about this aspect of the whole, "political", matter.

Political paper gold versus Physical Freegold !!!

HighPtFarm

(12/11/2003; 08:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113249)

Sale of Goldcorp's Bullion

I do not own shares of stock for the obvious reasons..... I prefer to own something real, such as the gold coins I can buy through CPM. I have however, made the exception to own some Goldcorp shares because of their low cost proven gold reserves on the North American continent, no debt of their balance sheet as well as their propensity to store part of their gold production for long-term investment.

I communicated with Goldcorp through their Investor Relations site to convey my thoughts and I decided to put them on the board for consideration.

I would rather Goldcorp start its own gold deposity fund like the Central Fund of Canada to hold its inventory of stored gold. That way they would not have to sell gold on the open market to realize it corporate profits and declare shareholder dividends but rather issue fund shares that can be traded by those who are in need of some tranactional fiat currency.

I'm placing this concept on this great board as "food for thought". I would appreciate any comments from the particpants of the BEST gold message board on the internet. I also want to thank CPM for maintaining the board as well as Jonathon for the great customer service.

Buongiorno!

(12/11/2003; 10:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113251)

Goldcorp reserve sales

I have just emailed Goldcorp, agreeing that gold is, indeed, money--perhaps they could use the dividend process to "sell" their surplus reserves to their own shareholders. This would avoid feeding the market and allowing shorts to cover.

Perhaps have a private minting with a unique strike. Past that, why should Goldcorp or any other mining company sell all their production into the market, thus helping the shorts to cover? (I smell a possible new product line for Sir MK.) I would purchase such coins from time to time and perhaps others would also be interested. What say you-- knights and ladies?

The sad, sad, truth is that if automobile companies marketed their products the same way mining companies sell their gold--why I probably could go buy a new Corvette for about $10,000! (And get a zero interest loan to boot!)

Chin-chin--ting!

Buongiorno!

Gandalf the White

(12/11/2003; 10:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113252)

WAY to GO !!, SPOT and SPIKE

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1NICE $4. UP move in NY !!
KEEP Jumping !
<;-)

Buongiorno!

(12/11/2003; 10:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113253)

Great Minds

Whilst I was composing and editing, Goldilox and HighPtFarm were thinking and writing much the same thing! Methinks many here are on the same wave length! Cheers!!
Buongiorno!

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 10:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113254)

Follow the bouncing ball

Another successful defense of $400+

Thank you Barron's, I got a bunch of gold stocks on the cheap when they took a breather.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 10:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113257)

China depeg

The geniuses on CNBC just suggested that Sir AG and co prefer a repeg to a new arbitrary value as a complete depeg might "increase volatility" in the currency markets.

Yeah - right! Can you spell "US$ MELTDOWN". If China depegged tomorrow, we would overnight start tracking $ vs. YUAN even more fervently than $ vs. euro, as the daily currency deltas would swamp the current ones.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 10:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113258)

Sir AG

His speech on protectionism is being carried live on CNBC RIGHT NOW!

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 11:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113259)

S & P raises ratings for Brazil

REUTERS
S&P revises Brazil`s outlook to positive
December 11, 2003 12:33:06 (ET)

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

NEW YORK, Dec 11 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlook on its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on the Federative Republic of Brazil to positive from stable. Standard & Poor's also affirmed its 'BB' long-term local, 'B+' long-term foreign, and 'B' short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the republic; the stable outlook on the long-term local currency rating was affirmed.

Goldilox:

Gee - Brazil is rated "stable". Of course, when rates rise, as they must inevitably do, the banana republics will fall drastically as they always do. Loan them a zillion $$ at variable rates and watch them squirm when growth forces the rates back up!!! FOA and Wizards of Money have explained it all ad nauseum.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 11:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113260)

10 Yr Bond auction

CNBC just reported that the 10yr bond auction was only subscribed to a rate of 29% by foreign customers, as opposed to 38% in the last auction.

The bilge pumps are not working, so the foreign CBs are BAILING!

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 11:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113262)

AT&T raises layoffs from 10% to 12% for 2003

Rueters
News 19.98 0.1AT&T says to cut 12 percent of work force
December 11, 2003 13:21:50 (ET)

NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - AT&T Corp, the largest U.S. long distance telephone company, said on Thursday it would cut 12 percent of its work force, up from its previous estimate of a 10 percent reduction.

AT&T has been trying to cut costs to offset shrinking revenue and increase competition from local telephone companies that had recently entered the long distance market.

Goldilox:

Happy Christmas to 2% more of T's workforce. Another impressive cost cutting measure to enhance productivity. Unemployment filings increased this week by only 13,000, so certainly "all is well" in the economy!

"dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones!"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/11/2003; 11:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113263)

The days are flying by!! Make your holidays shine!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

9 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

(12/11/2003; 11:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113264)

Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"

We haven't done this for a long time, but this looks like a good time to do it again:

We would like to get the lurkers involved, get some new thoughts, ideas, opinions in the mix here at the Forum.

So. . .

The next 50 first time posters will receive a free copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing" delivered to your door. Here's how to get one:

1. Get a posting code (if you don't already have one).

2. Post on anything you like having to do with the gold market, the economy as it relates to the gold market, etc. If you can't think of anything else to post on, try this:

USAGOLD has become my internet gold site because________________________ (fill in the blank)

Your post must be at least 50 words long.

3. Send an e-mail after you post to the new member of our staff, Gabrielle, with your name, address, etc. Indicate the number of the post. We will check to make sure that this is your first post, do don't try to slip one by us.

Send info to :
gabrielle@usagold.com

Make "First-Time Poster" your "subject"in both the e-mail and in the posting subject box

4. The idea is to get new people involved in the discussion. We think you'll find the atmosphere very friendly. What we hope to do is get you involved and keep you involved as a poster for a long time to come.

Please remember though: No stock touts.

Gandalf, o great wizard and advisor extraordinaire, would you please kind of monitor these whole proceedings?? If I left anything out here that need to be said, let us know.

Remember, the books go to the first fifty who make their AND get their information e-mail to Gabrielle.

Happy posting! Long time lurkers and new lurkers are welcome!!

J-Bullion

(12/11/2003; 11:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113265)

Brazil rating raises

Of course with the dollar collapsing, and Brazilian debt denominated in dollars (I think the Brazilian Real is up over 20% vs. the dollar this year), their debt is shrinking.

Gandalf the White

(12/11/2003; 12:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113266)

WOWSERS SIR M. K. --- Early Christmas Presents !!!

My Crystal Ball shows that there were a lot of NEWBIES in the last POG Contest, together with many LURKERS that may not fully understand why so many of us Goldhearts are constantly gathering the YELLOW !

SIR M. K.'s book, "The ABCs of Gold Investing" can answer these doubts and questions !

SOOOOO, come on and get your FREE "posting code" at the link "Discussion Forum Guidelines" atop the Forum page and LET US HEAR FROM YOU, and the FREE book "The ABCs of Gold Investing" will be under the Christman tree !!

<;-)

TownCrier

(12/11/2003; 12:47:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113267)

Testing forum font size

Someday, all fonts will be made this way...

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R.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 12:49:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113268)

Lurkers

Hey Lurkers, here's your chance. CPM will offer you a number of opportunities to get involved in contests (win gold or silver), debates, and most of all EDUCATION. The booklet's informative, as well.

I know they welcome your business in bullion or jewelry, but in my two years here, no one has ever spammed or solicited me, so don't hesitate for fear of a hard sell later. It just doesn't happen here. when you're ready to buy or sell, YOU contact THEM.

There are lots of opinions posted here from ALL OVER THE GLOBE. Check the posting rules (some simple courtesies to the host and other posters) and jump on in the pool. The water's fine!

Follow the wizard's posted directions and join in.

Jing Zu

(12/11/2003; 12:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113269)

Thank you! Gandalf the White!

Yes, you are correct! I also noticed a lot of new handles in the contest.

Thank you for hosting the GOLD contest! I enjoy them very much and have been trying to win again.

A word fitly spoken is like apples of gold in pictures of silver.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/11/2003; 13:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113270)

Here it is. You can "earn" it by posting, or else simply buy it as you might prefer.

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm." (order info)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Jing Zu

(12/11/2003; 13:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113271)

Wow Weeee

The dollar just dropped real suddenly , down a lot! But I am sure that ya'll know this already...88.85

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/11/2003; 14:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113272)

Page Update!

Federal_Reserves

(12/11/2003; 14:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113273)

(No Subject)

From breifing.com...
The Fed has once again succeeded in saying just what everyone wanted to hear, as both the cash and the bond markets are rallying on the heels of the release of the FOMC minutes... Specifically, the minutes revealed that with regard to the labor market, the committee saw 'large margins of unemployed labor' until late 2005...???

>>>>
Its true, legions of unemployed workers are great for stocks and bonds. Keeping the working man down under, with no ability to ask for big wage hikes is a key component of rising stock prices and bonds. It keeps inflation at bay, stocks and bonds number one enemy. And Mr. Greenspan's outspoken favor for global trade also helps keep wages under control as our factories are shipped to cheap sweatshops offshore. This allows him to pump fiat into the system endlessly raising the value of paper assets. Some say he is creating inflation, but I don't see it, not without wage gains.

Mr Gresham

(12/11/2003; 14:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113274)

Who now remembers history?

(Paraphrasing Adolf's "Who now remembers the Armenians?" as he set about on another genocide.)

Some of the finest ethical minds have worn uniforms, and learned painful lessons from the mistakes of others and themselves. When they speak, they deserve our ear.

Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, to his son Manfred, a few weeks before Hitler ordered his death, in October, 1944:

"War has seldom brought anything for any of the people engaged in it. But the people aren't usually asked. Once war has begun, you go on fighting simply to get the best you can out of it. But what when there is no more to be got? Then it's better to stop it at once. And that, you see, is our position today, except that we are fighting an enemy in the East before whom there can be no surrender...

"...Anyway, one thing is quite clear, it's intolerable that the fate and welfare of a whole nation should depend on the whim of a small group. There must be some limit, otherwise, the most fantastic things can happen without anyone noticing."

G: Will our on-paper Constitution and other Founding Documents be but the high-water mark of a decent humanity's brief, failed attempt to live without tyranny?

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 14:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113275)

Inflafla

@ Federal_Reserves

Inflation can better be defined by the rise in money creation, rather than prices and wages, which can be an effect of inflation. It's true we have yet to see the rises in prices, partly because of the deflationary effect of cheaper imports (the dollar is, of course, doing it's Newton's apple imitation). Wages, as well, are not rising specifically because of the competitive nature of global trade enhanced with high unemployment. Remember, they only report new layoffs (registered with the UE comp folks) and new job creation. Although layoff numbers are declining, the poor slobs laid off last year are mostly not working, or trrying to make it as self-emloyed in some activiity. Measuring today's job creation against today's layoffs is another deceptive practive by the statisticians.

The strong competition for available jobs will keep the wage numbers low until fuller employment is achieved. Sadly, the effects of prices will start to be felt sooner than wage increases due to spikes in commodity and raw materials we are already experiencing.

Waverider

(12/11/2003; 14:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113276)

Uh oh...Randy

....I find the fonts size prior to 1159 is easier to read, IMHO....anyone else have thoughts about the fonts? I have my view size on medium, and default to 12 and find this a little small, plus I find that it loses the black-white contrast.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 14:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113277)

Inflafla continued

to sum up the thought, inflation is taking place in a big way, and a quick perusal of teh FED's website can show that with the figures on money creation. Towne Crier often reports these to us here at the forum.

While it's true we are not seeing all the effects of inflation (food, medical, housing, energy are exempted from the calculations), we are experiencing some already. Just like movements in interest rates, the effects of FED actions often take time to demonstrate themselves, and even more time to reverse the effects.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 14:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113278)

FONTs

I'm using 16 point Times New Roman. FONT size needed can be different based on the FONT chosen, as well, since every FONT map is created individually and then resized proportionally to the map. The screen size and resolution also has a lot to do with it. I use a 12" screen (laptop) at 1024x768 pixel resolution.

I might also be butting in on something you guys are doing that has nothing to do with any of this. If so, excuse and ignore me.

G'lox

steady

(12/11/2003; 14:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113279)

eocism

so no one has taken it upon themselfs to lableand define what is happening regarding the effewcts of the dollar falling.
well im not waiting for someone else to lable it i allready have.
the movement is called ecoism, where individuals , the stae on all levels and businesses are accumulating gold.
they are also moving towards being more honest and restoring hte integrity of the systems.
the movement which is now gaterhing steam from the bubling percolating gold caldera and is set to recruit new menbers one mind at a time. Heck sometimes we dont even have to recruit as well they just figure it out themself.
But the movement is alive, and well and the numbers of people who belive in ecosim will continue to grow, they just wont necassaily know they are ecoites untill the mass media redefines and relables teh terms used here and presents its version of ecoism to the masses so they can understand what in the heck is happening in regards to the currency wars that are taking place.

TownCrier

(12/11/2003; 14:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113280)

Waverider, and general technical assistance to all

It's possible that we are working against each other without realizing it.

Font types such as Times and Times New Roman are generally smaller in appearance than a corresponding point size in Verdana, Geneva, Monaco, etc. When we switched our pages over to a sans-serif (i.e., verdana) -based font, it became necessary to knock the font size down one peg from standard size.

It sounds like your browser's base settings are good with respect to fontsize. However, this is where we may be working against each other.

A browser will typically have preference settings available (for example, under "web content" on Internet Explorer) that will allow a users browser to either use or override a web page's specifications for fonts and colors. Note, I did not mention size.

Therefore, if you have your browser set to NOT allow a page to specifiy the font type (or color), it is possible that you are seeing our pages in your own chosen font TYPE, however it is being done in the SIZE "-1" that our page specifies. And as alluded to above, the smaller size works well with our new Verdana, but it will appear very small if you are overriding our verdana with your own Times-type font.

It may be best to check your settings to ensure that your browser is set to allow the webpage to specify the font type used in the display of that page. After all, there is an marriage of size and type in the end display, and the results will surely be less than the designer's purpose if you override one element while having no corresponding ability to compensate for the other. I hope that all made sense.

Good luck!

Randy

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/11/2003; 15:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113281)

Page Update!

Agingfast

(12/11/2003; 15:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113282)

Federal Reserves

Yes, we call that the triumph of capital over labor -- or the rich over the poor.

Waverider

(12/11/2003; 15:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113283)

Randy, Goldilox

Thanks for the explanation and suggestions. I think I've got it fixed! Cheers!

Boilermaker

(12/11/2003; 15:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113284)

Greenspans Latest Non-Conventional Wisdom

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031211/bs_nm/economy_greenspan_dcsnip;
"A rise in the value of the renminbi would be unlikely to have much, if any, effect on aggregate employment in the United States, but a misaligned Chinese currency, if that is indeed the case, could have adverse effects on the global financial market and, hence, indirectly on U.S. output and jobs," Greenspan told the World Affairs Council of Greater Dallas. .........
Arguing against what he termed the "so-called conventional wisdom," Greenspan said the loss of U.S. jobs was not due to low-priced competition from abroad but to weak exports, a drop in business investment and increases in business efficiency.
comment;
This is another instance where AG has expressed an opinion opposite to that of the Bush gang, ie., John Snow's pathetic appeal for a renminbi revaluation. He might be running for the Democratic ticket next week.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/11/2003; 16:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113285)

Randy's Font Control

Randy, I loved the brief change in fonts to the larger more easily readable size. Could you please put it back? Otherwise, please come over to my house and change my settings for me.
Boilermaker

Waverider

(12/11/2003; 16:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113286)

Boilermaker

Go to your upper toolbar to "View" and click, go to "Text Size", and increase/decrease it by a notch...it will change your fonts size across the board, but I didn't find it a problem.

Boilermaker

(12/11/2003; 16:18:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113287)

Market Action

The rapid turn-a-round in gold stocks today suggest that they have attracted a lot of "hot" money. A gold stock bubble? Maybe for the paper forms in the short term. The real stuff seems quite stable even with the opposition's efforts to keep it down. I love this game.
Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/11/2003; 16:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113288)

Bless You Waverider

I did it!! Praise the Lord and thanks to Lady Waverider.

steady

(12/11/2003; 16:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113289)

the abeyance is over, bring on the dinar!

gold may have experienced a 32 year period of abeyance but forces greater than this planet can handle are changing that. butr rembrer dont abeer your neighbors stash.

goldenboy

(12/11/2003; 16:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113290)

Goldcorp Physical Gold

IMO as a shareholder they should sell when physical is well above the moving 50 day average and withhold when the price is under the average.
I wish this were the only way a company could hedge.

Goldendome

(12/11/2003; 16:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113291)

To those wondering (worrying) about large Gold sales!!

I say DON'T worry about it!!!! There is plenty of paper out there just wanting to soak up something tangible (primarily physical Gold). Just as you and I may part with a $1000. here and there to aquire a few coins...There are others (nations) with billions waiting to soak up physical Gold. These large holders of paper need (must have) LARGE supplies of physical gold to buy into,,,otherwise, they can not do the deal!! Where would they get the gold?? They would flood the market with paper--outstripping suppy available, and causing a sky rocket in the price as they are attempting to buy in... Now, that is not to say that the price may not eventually sky-rocket and at least rise in a dramatic if orderly manner. But make no mistake about it...If there is a large willing seller,, there will be a LARGER buyer!!!

Boilermaker

(12/11/2003; 16:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113292)

GG Gold Sale

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031210/105573_1.htmlsnip;
In selling this gold we have crystallized unrealized pre-tax income of $40 million or $0.22 per share, which on an after tax basis is $0.13 per share. As a result of our strategy we are now forecasting both earnings growth and record earnings for 2003. We are extremely pleased to be able to do so in gold's new bull market

comment
I was surprised that GoldCorp sold their gold holdings especially if wasn't needed for cash requirements. The capital gains were apparently taxed at a 40% rate which seems like a stupid sale to me just to pay out 10 cents per share dividend. It smells a bit fishy. I'd rather have a physical distribution to shareholders.
Boilermaker

Bulldog

(12/11/2003; 17:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113293)

Mr. Gresham #113274

As a Canadian looking at your country, I see a great erosion of your constitutional rights. No one in the media criticizes the government effectively. Ethics and morality or lack thereof commencing with Bill Clinton told the citizenry it was okay to lie and cheat. T.V. programming on most networks is not worth watching, eg. Celebrity Justice. The corruption on Wall Street and probably Bay Street (Toronto) is rife. The N.Y. A.G. has just begun to ferret out the crooks. Is it any wonder then that the $U.S. dollar is descending into oblivion? The U.S. reaction to 911 to tie that to Saddam was too big a leap for most of the rest of the world.
How can anyone have any faith in the words (doublespeak) of Alan Greenspan. Read some of the speeches by our Bank of Canada Governor Dodge on their website and you will be refreshed by the clarity of language.
As countries, we have the longest undefended border in the world. We are doing our best to assist militarily in Afghanistan, but since we did not jump right in on your war with Iraq, Canadian firms are precluded from any rebuilding contracts in that country.
I think the world would have been a much safer prosperous place had the international police organizations had the responsibility for searching out the criminals connected to 911.
If your big suppliers, China and Japan stop supporting your debt, the empire will be brought down without a shot.
Perhaps then, our two countries will get back to civility again and such things as the softwood lumber dispute will be history. There are lots of reasons why your country is in decline and gold is in the upswing. I doubt that middle class America will ever buy physical in any quantity before the price is out of reach. There is just too much household debt.
One last thought. Those prisoners in Guantanamo Bay--are they prisoners of war? If not, do they ever get a trial?
P.S. I know of no one personally that buys physical other than those on this forum. My friends congratulate me on my
"acumen", but you only book a profit when you sell and I intend to be a buyer in the foreseeable future. I do not envisage me ever selling same.

Dollar Bill

(12/11/2003; 17:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113294)

*>*............+

Sir Bulldog, trust me on this, the american media criticizes the Bush administration. Not effectively you say?
VERY effectively, only, the critics positions are weak, thier analysis is not convincing.

davefinger

(12/11/2003; 18:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113296)

Dollar Bill

Thanks man! Best joke I've heard all day! I don't come here for that though. Now if we could get back to gold...?

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 19:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113297)

Criticism from the Media

http://wizardsofmoney.orgEFFECTIVE CRITICISM? Fair and Balanced?
Only on the internet or in the library!

Criticism of TPTB (no matter who is in power) in the mainstream media brings ostracization and demonization, or worse. We don't get Geraldo Rivera and Ollie North because they are good journalists! They play the game! The democrats will not really change anything, as they are just mad because they got demoted to the cheap seats by the NeoCons.

Bill Bonner, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, et al, NEVER appear on the financial media anymore, because it's much more pallatable to have Heckle and Jeckle tell us how awesome the economy is. This entire "gold revolution" is fueled on the internet, because the TV people are either stupid or crooked. I'll leave the reader to determine who is which.

Reread the "FOA", "Wizards of Money", "Financial Reckoning Day", and "Boom, Gloom, and Doom" and tell me if you've EVER seen this information on TV. HECK NO, and you never will. The publicist for Financial Reckoning Day just resigned because no one would even give Bill Bonner a mention on TV's "fair and balanced coverage". Everything we discuss on this forum (even when we stay carefully focused on golden economics) is just not welcome in the broadcast media. After all, the truth hurts a little too much, and TPTB dare not trust an informed electorate.

Get your information from the internet, and get your gold from CPM!

Ten Bears

(12/11/2003; 19:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113298)

Goldilox More on criticism from the media

http://www.worldnewsstand.net/book/enemywithin/page15.htm"There is no such thing, at this date of world's history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it. There is not one of you, who dares to write your honest opinions, and if you did, you know, beforehand, that it would never appear in print. I am paid weekly for keeping my honest opinion, out of the paper" John Swinton, the former Chief of Staff for the New York Times.

Goldendome

(12/11/2003; 19:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113299)

" EOCISM " the word

Sir Steady: I'm wondering if you were listening to the same NPR radio program as I; a few weeks ago, when some sort of a language expert was describing the steps needed to have a word qualify for entry into the dictionary?? ((( And most important, to be Given credit for the words Creation))).

A few important items were that the word be used in various print form, by a multiple number of users,,,,and to have a meaning that is gaining acceptance in usage, (like the word "website" not too many years ago).

So far, I see only one person using the word "Eocism"--Well now, I guess, two, since I just used it, so you're making progress, here anyway. But is anyone else using it anywhere else? Other than you, I mean. Or, are people writing in just to ask-- what's that word ?

It's your word and that's fine, but when I see the word--Eocism--- I see Ralph Nader and some Green army saving the Green Forest "ism" like socialism, Communism.

To describe the "screwing up" of the economy, the dollar, and worldwide financial markets: I believe I would use some form of words to reflect that,, like the word: "Econofornification"!! Now unless I get censored,,,Doesn't that sound about like the way things are going???

Sir Gandolf: Can I start to use my word?

Buongiorno!

(12/11/2003; 20:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113300)

Sir Bulldog

Hey, mate, take a deep breath--such venom from our good friends to the North! Mercy!

To quote George Will,"Who appointed Canada as America's moral auditors?"

Our exchanges need improvement? Darn right--but could Enron merely be an echo of Bre-x?

Constitutional erosions? Quite an accusation from a gun-control state! (IMVHO)

War on terrorism? When you fellas get hit,(God forbid) bury several thousand of your own--then you get to tell us how to deal with things. Prisoners at Gitmo? They are war criminals, not POW's. They get a trial when we say they do. Anyone else would have already executed them. Rest easy, while incarcerated there, they will not interfere with your socialist state.

As for your "international police organization" would you have the UN confront Saddam? (He was shakin' in his boots for twelve years!) Tell it to the Bosnians, Hutu, and Tutsi people...really!

If you want our two countries to "get back to civility"--put a sock in it, mate, and lighten up a bit. This will all be past us, hopefully soon. Let's drink a toast to what gold will do tomorrow, and tomorrow....your gold coin is just as good as mine....and to hell with the politicians....we can't control them anyway!

Chin-Chin....ting!

Buongiorno!

Ten Bears

(12/11/2003; 20:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113301)

Mr. Gresham; "Who now remembers history?"

A few quotes on war and history.

Douglas MacArthur; " Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear-kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor-with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home, or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it."

Aldous Huxley; "The charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different."

Sir Peter Ustinov; "War is terrorism of the rich. Terrorism is war of the poor".

Robert Zimmerman/Bob Dylan; "Masters of War" 1963

Marx; "War is the method by which capitalism, at the climax of its development, seeks to solve its insoluble contradictions."

Rett Butler (internet); "Short term, America can bomb the snot out of any country on the planet. Long term, it never works."

Frederic Bastiat; "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."

Smedley Butler,(commending general, marine corps,1934); "War is a racket."

Ernest Hemmingway; "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."

Friedrich Nietzsche; "Insanity in individuals is something rare�but in groups, parties, nations and epochs it is the rule."

Max Rabbitz

(12/11/2003; 20:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113302)

Hello Bull Dog,

Good to hear from our Northern Neighbor. When is your National Bank going to back it's currency with something other than promises? We are not so different. Our future is closely related, regardless of short term politics, unless of course the we get another leg of the ice age, and those Darned Canadian glaciers force me into the Carribean. But until then, I've got a little investment in Canadian Natural Gas Stocks (since I can't store the stuff in the backyard). Louis Brandeis, an old U.S. Supreme Court Justice, said that most of the evil of the world was done by people trying to do good. Simple humility is often the best course. There is a lot we do not know.

Someone said power corrupts. I forget who. Probably lots of people cause there has been so much corruption for so long. Anyway, your neighbor to the south has had a good dose of it. Part of it was earned, the power part. The Constitution was pure genius. The market economy was a harsh master, but productive and usually fair, at least more than the corrupt political payoffs now in vogue from the super state. Time passes. All turns to dust, except perhaps softwood lumber whose intricacies I am not privy too, except to say that I know Canada has miles of coniferous forest ready for the blade, and insect pests ready to eat them if they are not cut.

With regard to our Afghanistan (mostly non-Afghan) prisoners in Guantanamo, yes this really is a war and they are prisoners of war until the war ends. Do I have to pay their legal fees now?

Is it time to evacuate to the Carribean?

I'm ready.

Got Gold?

Max

21mabry

(12/11/2003; 21:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113303)

Max Rabbitz

Lord Acton, Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutley.We can see this premise in those who control the financial systems of this world.21

Max Rabbitz

(12/11/2003; 21:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113304)

21 Maybry & Lord Acton

Yes there is a relationship. But trust only yourself. Question all others. And then question yourself.

No one has absolute power, therefore none have absolute corruption. (Max 2003)

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 21:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113306)

Media criticism

@ ten bears

Believe it or not, I edited my response a few times to take all the grossly political thoughts out of it and replace them with pure economically political ones. Even the library is getting rid of all the old books. I know they are terribly unfunded, but once I read all the sailing books, I lost interest in their poorly stocked shelves. Try looking for books by oldies but goodies like Wilhelm Reich and you'll find them purged. It's like going to the video store. All the old movies are gone, and if there is not enough demand to convert it to DVD, sayonara Ethel! I tried to rent "Kelly's Heros" when the stories of Iraqi gold surfaced, and I could only find it at the library. Ah that's it. the library is not for old books, it's for old videos.

The internet really is the last bastion of free thinking, and there are a lot of folks working tirelessly to restrict it as well.

The electronic revolution has almost made "Ferenheit 451" an unnecessary fear. Books have gone the way of vinyl records.

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 21:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113307)

"Sellers are scarce" says McGuire

ODJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Easier But Sellers Scarce

-- Profit Taking Allowed For Friday If Dollar Gains

By Gavin Maguire
New York, Dec. 11 (OsterDowJones) - Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled $1.60 lower at $405.40 per ounce Thursday.
The fairly sedate session saw prices drop to four-day lows of $403.30 on a sturdier U.S. dollar before leveling off above that level on a letup in the early selling pressure.
The early sales were spurred by the short covering-led upturn in the U.S. dollar that rendered dollar-denominated gold more expensive to non-U.S. consumers.
However, physical buyers and already net-long funds remained persistent bidders of gold at the lower levels, limiting gold's downward momentum greatly.
As a result, Feb gold futures not only continued to hold above the psychologically significant $400 level for the eighth consecutive trading day but gained ground as the morning wore on despite the steady showing by the U.S. dollar.
"Gold is not seeing too much aggressive selling at the moment so is finding support, and as long as the U.S. dollar doesn't go too much higher I think the selling will stay pretty light," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.
However, he allowed for a pickup in selling pressure before the week is through as the pressure for net-long funds to secure profits ahead of the yearend builds.
"We are expecting some profit taking from the funds at some point, as what are they going to do with all that gold?" he said.

Goldilox:

If the funds are smart, they'll bury it in the basement!

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 21:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113308)

Italian Food Giant on the Brink

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3310115.stmLast Updated: Thursday, 11 December, 2003, 18:09 GMT

Italian food giant on the brink

Shares in Italian food and drinks giant Parmalat have nearly halved after analysts said it was close to default. Parmalat's shares have been suspended since Monday, and when trading resumed they fell 47.4% to close at 1.18 euros on Thursday.

Credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Parmalat twice in the past two days, and now rates the company just above insolvency. Some investors hope that banks may be putting together a rescue deal.

Money Worries

Shares in Parmalat, one of Italy's best-known companies, have been under pressure for some time over concern about its adventurous investment policy.

Goldilox:

Don't let "adventurous investment policy" put you on the brink, 'cause there ain't any bank gonna bail you out.

Get gold, not paper!

Goldilox

(12/11/2003; 22:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113309)

Bill Gross' December comments

Druid

(12/11/2003; 22:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113310)

(No Subject)

http://www.pimco.com/PIMCO_US.Site/Template/LateBreakingCommentary.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2fLeftNav%2fLate%2bBreaking%2bCommentary%2fIO%2f2003%2fio_dec03%2ehtm&NRNODEGUID=%7bC6270D9A-EF3B-4A98-A783-54488CD2637B%7d&NRCACHEHINT=GuestSnip.

"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the "Universe," a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest � a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.

Albert Einstein

I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together�

I am the walrus, goo goo g�joob.

John Lennon

"I am becoming more Eastern in my thinking," I told a close friend during a recent private moment. He looked at me as if I had some explaining to do and that I better do it fast. If there were any gerbils associated with this story, his face seemed to say, then PIMCO had better be hiring an additional PR agent and definitely not Richard Gere's. Not to worry, I proceeded, this isn't a religious conversion or anything � more of a way at looking at life and my bit part in it, and I like some of the things that Eastern philosophies have to say. Not that you have to be Asian to say them. Albert Einstein, cited above, was anything but, and John Lennon was�well if not the walrus then�John Lennon. What they wrote though that appeals to me and resembles the philosophies of Confucius, Buddha, and Lao Tzu among others is their emphasis on egolessness � their attempt to cancel the screeching and often destructive noise of the "I." The ego and its need for recognition has always been an important part of my existence. "I'm not sure," my wife Sue remarked the other day, "where you and our kids got that �fame� gene. The roar of the crowd only lasts for a few seconds," she continued, "and then you've got to go back to living your everyday life. I get a bigger high just by buying a pair of shoes, and it lasts for months!" She has a point, some really nice shoes, and a wonderful perspective on other people and her place among them. My point though is not to eliminate the "I's" � there have already been eight in this Outlook's dialogue so far. There's no getting around the fact that we as individuals are part of this cosmos � if only for a short time. But it would be constructive, as Einstein suggested to extend the "I" beyond an inner circle, to acknowledge in our belief systems as well as our everyday behavior that we share this planet with other people and indeed all living things. When John Lennon sang, "I am the walrus," he meant, I think, that he shared the wonderful gift of life with them; that we were all part of the same play on the same giant stage. Oh how we all could benefit from that understanding. A little less "I" and a little more "we." Goo goo g�joob."

Druid: Here you go Sir Lox.

Black Blade

(12/11/2003; 23:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113311)

Natural gas surges on talk of new cold snap

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493871291&p=1012571727207
Snippit:

US natural gas futures prices increased rapidly on Wednesday amid forecasts for colder weather in the north-east US this weekend. The January Henry hub futures price was 62.8 cents higher at $7.35 per million British thermal units in late trade on Nymex in New York after earlier hitting a contract high of $7.55. Natural gas prices have been rising sharply in recent weeks as the US experienced its first snowfall and traders started forecasting shortages in coming months.

Black Blade: The EIA said that US storage had 111 bcf withdrawn last week. Another Artic Express is hitting the Midwest and the northeast this weekend. Although storage levels are rather high by historical standards, the production decline is steeper now as operating mature basins are depleting faster and a large-scale moratorium on drilling in Federal lands in the US remains in effect. The decline rate has apparently picked up to around 3-3.5% and imported LNG is not likely to have any effect on storage for several years (maybe 1% this year). Meanwhile NatGas demand has been increasing 5-10% year on year (even through last year's fairly mild winter and an economic recession resulting in manufacturing demand destruction). Usually Canada supplies about 15% of our NatGas supply, however in November Canadian supply to the US dropped 12% with predictions that Canada may barely cover a 4-5% contribution this year. If this winter is anything like last year or colder than normal we will run out of storage this time. Last year we began withdrawal season with all time high storage levels and a lot of Canadian contribution - not this year! We still ended the winter-spring heating season at all time low levels of NatGas in storage. Just consider this a "heads up" as heating season has just arrived and hit stronger than predicted. Still, there is no "energy policy" in the US as Dem Senators threatened to filibuster the bill (falling 2 votes short to prevent a filibuster), so it has been shelved. We will experience several sharp price hikes this winter, so if you live in one of the few areas where you can lock in pricing this winter � then do it! If not, buy some extra blankets, space heaters, and winterize your homes. The poor and elderly on fixed income can only pray if no taxpayer-funded assistance is available. I suspect that it is possible that there could be a collection of some "corpse-sickles" in the coldest regions late this winter. Be sure to thank your local Sierra Club and Green Peace friends.

Black Blade

(12/11/2003; 23:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113312)

OPEC may trade oil in euros to compensate for dollar decline

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_490084,00020008.htm
Snippit:

OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva said the organisation is considering trading oil in euros to compensate for the US dollar's decline in value. Another alternative is to trade in a basket of currencies other than the greenback, Silva told Venezuela's state news agency, Venpres. "There is a talk of trading crude in euros. It is one of the alternatives," the former Venezuelan oil minister said from Vienna late on Monday. "It is possible that the organisation will discuss that, and make a decision at some point in time," he said. Silva did not provide more details.

Black Blade: Old news but worth keeping in mind. Meanwhile WTI crude is bouncing around $32/bbl on inventory decline and IEA report of increasing demand from China and other developing nations. Oh yeah, a lot of Irai oil is being pumped but reinjected fue to limited pipeline capacity as yet another pipeline was blown up yesterday (one or two a week at the current rate).

Gandalf the White

(12/12/2003; 00:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113313)

Sir Goldendome's QUESTION !

Goldendome (12/11/03; 19:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 113299)
< snip>
Sir Gandolf: Can I start to use my word?
---
As soon as it appears in my WEBSTER'S DICTIONARY !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/12/2003; 00:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113314)

LURKERS --- Did you see this ? <;-)

MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"
===
NOTICE to ALL LURKERS (old and new) !
---
A FREE early Christmas present !!!!
It will pay you to go to YESTERDAY's ARCHIVES and read the above Message from SIR M. K. !!
<;-)

Operative

(12/12/2003; 00:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113315)

2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031211/nyth120_1.html2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast

Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET
NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.
The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.
The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year."

comment: Phew! Boy am I glad to hear this. I was getting concerned about next year, I feel soooo much better now.

Usul

(12/12/2003; 01:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113316)

Fonts

http://psychology.wichita.edu/optimalweb/print.htmDavid Ambrosini
( http://www.cabrillo.cc.ca.us/~dambrosini/189Web/design.html )

says that "In print, the rule of thumb is serif for text and san serif for headlines... but: "In screen media, the rule of thumb is san serif for text and serif for headlines, the opposite of ou rule for print". Personally, I prefer it the first way.

Michael Bernard of the Wichita State University Psychology Department says there is "some evidence that suggest that some serif fonts promote better comprehension than some sans serif fonts" - Tahoma and Times 12 point fonts gave the fastest reading times.

Usul

(12/12/2003; 01:20:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113317)

It's only just begun...

http://www.finance24.co.za/Finance/Columns/0,,1518-1522_1458765,00.htmlNo, not the Carpenters, that's "We've only just begun".

Dollar decline to boost gold

"It's only just begun. The decline in the dollar that is..."

Usul

(12/12/2003; 01:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113318)

A golden wall of worry

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9043F86E-5181-4407-BB89-475522164BCE%7D&siteid=nibiru&dist=annunaki"The gold timers I track at the Hulbert Financial Digest are not behaving the way they normally do. And that's bullish for gold..."

Usul

(12/12/2003; 01:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113319)

Gold May Extend Rally as Haven From Dollar, Terrorism

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a4_A_7Q47phI&refer=britney_spears"Having a position in gold gives you protection in a difficult financial period," said John Hathaway, who this year added bullion to the $750 million in gold-related funds he manages at Tocqueville Asset Management LP in New York. "It's like taking out insurance."...

"Investment demand for gold surged by 151 tons, or more than fourfold, in the third quarter from the second, according to Gold Fields Minerals Services Ltd..."

Usul

(12/12/2003; 01:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113320)

Consider guarding against dollar falling even further

http://www.suntimes.com/output/savage/cst-fin-terry114.html"The United States desperately needs the world to believe the dollar has value. Otherwise, foreigners won't want the dollars we send when we buy imported goods from China and Asia and Europe. If the dollar is losing value, the Chinese central bank, which owns hundreds of billions of dollars -- all invested in Treasury securities -- might just decide to switch to gold or euros.

And eventually the only way to get them to hold dollars is to pay them a bribe -- higher interest rates on our Treasury debt they hold. You can figure out how higher interest rates would affect your personal finances -- from mortgage payments to credit card debt..."

Belgian

(12/12/2003; 02:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113321)

Gold for Oil....

Russia is copying the Arabian Oil for Gold - concept. Geo-political realities (present and evolving) are speeding up the materialization of the ideas.

Mr Gresham

(12/12/2003; 02:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113322)

Ten Bears

As always, there is iron in your words. You have surpassed yourself in what you brought us this time. All this just off the top of your head? Da Man!

Bulldog: I think what amazes me is making the side-by-side contrast of decent people living in tyrannical systems like Nazi Germany, trying to get by, noticing less than the full picture; decent people living without a Constitution as in Britain, noticing as little; and decent people living under a Constitution in constant violation as in the U.S., observing little and caring less. (Just ask Ten Bears what 400+ broken treaties internally means for our Constitutional integrity.)

Humans seem unable to act appropriately, in ANY of several contrasting political situations, even when opportunity is presented them, and it is relatively safe to act.

It just seems like, to the boys at the top, it's all just held up like the Wizard's curtain, for us who believe in rules and fairness and keeping your word to be taken in by, and keep on producing for them.

Guantanamo? I thought that one was funny. Didn't hear 'bout no Talibans flying jets into WTC. We didn't run into them until we invaded their country (many were outsiders there, though, I hear). They may have hidden or helped OBL locally, but they were more defenders than terrorists if they crossed no borders. I guess they were just "resisting arrest", eh?

One I've wondered about is civil forfeitures. We are Constitutional toast over that one. Your house or car is suspected of involvement in a crime. Gone! Can even exceed any fine that would have been imposed upon conviction. We even have a phrase "due process" that seems to be in reversal on this one.

And that 2000 election. Hanging chads? Geo. Washington saith "Sheesh! My guys froze in the snow -- for THIS?"

It just seems the cons are pushing the people to see what they can get away with, and no one's pushing back. So they keep adding new crazy stuff. I mean, it's getting to look like some character getting slapped around in a Warner Brothers cartoon, J6P is looking so dumbass.

I tell ya -- and we goldhearts are sitting at the crux of this one almost NO ONE else sees -- the use of fiat money (under the Fed's delicate management these 80 years) has upturned a normal daily understanding of value -- of labor, and of saving, of exchange, and of permanence -- and undermined a lot of other areas in life by this. People have been grazing on crazy weed in the monetary realm all these years, and the baseless nature of it is coming home to roost in manic, destructive behavior.

Of course the first step to ending a con is to admit you've been taken. And that's the hardest.

mas

(12/12/2003; 04:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113323)

Mr Gresham well said!

And that's what it's all about, ain't it? Can't add more.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 05:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113324)

Federal Reserve Party?

We need a viable third party candidate to challenge the wholly corrupted Dems and Republicans. What about a Fed party with Sir Alan its standard bearer and candidate for 2004?

The bankers run the country anyway through their proxy politicians on both sides of the aisle. Why not cut out these greedy and unreliable middlemen and have the bankers take the reins?

I can see it now. Campaign literature will be in the form of new Federal Reserve notes with AG's picture that become the currency of the land upon the installation of the Fed party candidate. The slogan is "Financial utopia forever" and "No pot unfilled". The people will love it. They will vote their pocketbooks. AG will RULE!!

Boilermaker
PS; You might want to back up those new notes with some nasty old gold.

Druid

(12/12/2003; 06:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113325)

Mr Gresham (12/12/03; 02:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113322)

"Of course the first step to ending a con is to admit you've been taken. And that's the hardest."

Druid: Oh! Mr. Gresham, you are on such a "truthful" roll, please do continue. The illusion of fiat over such a very long time has created the delusion of self-importance and total and complete competence by the home team. Who! Me taken? No way, no how Sir, I! KNOW! What "money" is. My personal epiphany and realization came about some four and half years ago when I took a few thousand "dollars" out of my plan at work to do a little "speculating" because I too was a "master" and could in my own personal way tame this market of stocks.

What took me a little over two years to "save" I was able to reduce down close to zero in about two months. I remember thinking to myself, this wasn't supposed to happen, don't stocks go up all the time? I stopped all trading and began reading but this time I was reading material I never came across. Thank you Wall Street Underground, you started me on the "righteous" path to gaining wisdom and knowledge. At the same time, I stumbled on to this site and lurked, I believe, for a little over a year as I "walked the trail" several times before commenting (my own personal choice). My first reading of all trail material provided the logic I needed to make some big changes in a lot of ways, not just my perception of what "money" is and isn't, but many things. MK and group KNOW, BOY! DO THEY KNOW what they are sitting on in terms of a real time archive documenting the great change that is transpiring before us and the understanding of that change. I certainly wonder off to read other materials but ALWAYS return here because of the "goldmine" of knowledge and understanding that I come across on a daily basis. This isn't by any means set in stone but people tend to make decisions based on trust and credibility more so then substance and common sense. In an effort to try and inform the masses, breaking through the barrier of entrenched myths is our greatest challenge.

Clink!

(12/12/2003; 07:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113326)

Some interesting posts in the last 24 hours

@ Ten Bears : I liked your quotations - the Hemmingway is now pinned to the wall of my work cube. On the outside wall - I'm going fishing !

@ Mr Gresham : You said :-
It just seems the cons are pushing the people to see what they can get away with, and no one's pushing back. So they keep adding new crazy stuff.

C! That's exactly the same kind of thought I had this week when it was announced that none of the weasels would be allowed to bid on Iraq rebuilding contracts (despite holding massive debts of the regime deposed by the willing). The problem is that while this plays well to a largely disinterested (and uninterested ?) domestic population - the one that can re-elect a President - it gives many other people, particularly those in countries that don't spend 5% of their GDP on arms, the distinct impression that it might be safer for everyone if the US became insolvent before any more damage is done.
What do you do if the biggest guy in a lifeboat gets roaring drunk and starts jumping all over the place, rocking the boat dangerously, stepping on toes ? You edge him slowly to the side so that, at just the right moment of the boat's roll, a teeny tiny push will push him overboard.

Clink!

(12/12/2003; 07:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113327)

@Boilermaker

I've just finished listening to Michael Moore's 'Dude, where's my country'. In the last chapter, he discusses how to get rid of GWB at the next election. After describing the fatal weaknesses of the current Democrat opposition, he then goes on to name one person who would win by a landslide - Oprah ! I thought he was being funny at first, but when he said he wasn't, I had to stop and admit that he might have a point. The trouble is, she apparently has already said 'Never'.
C!

admin

(12/12/2003; 08:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113330)

Politics

Let's work on keeping the politics off the forum. We don't mind thoughtful, sound social commentary directed at the big picture, but when this turns into an echo of the Rush Limbaugh and/or Larry King shows, i.e., party politics in extremis (or I never met Republican I didn't like, or it's rejoinder: I never a Democrat I didn't like), it's a turnoff. I think most of you know the difference, if you don't we'll differentiate for you. We've pulled alot of posts lately, and we'll pull more. Somehow the message just doesn't seem to register until we post something direct -- like this. The next thing to go will be posting privileges. We're coming onto an election year and we don't want this forum to become just another three-ring political circus. This site is dedicated to gold and economics as it relates to gold. Let's keep it that way.

And one more thing, this is not a tout board for your favorite gold stock. These seem to show up with more frequency in a rising market. The quickest way to be shown the door is to put up some thinly disguised
promo like the one we just took off the board

So no party politics.
No gold stock touts.
And goodbye, Mr. Nakajima. The implied warning seemed to have no effect.

All: We're asking for your help with this.

Thanks.

The management.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 08:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113331)

Clink

I like Oprah too. She's got enough money so she can't be bought and popularity so she wouldn't need to curry favors from political hacks. All she needs is a golden platform.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 08:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113332)

Admin

Sorry for the politics. No more from me.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 08:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113333)

Economic Rebound?

Reuters
Consumer Sentiment Stumbles in December
Friday December 12, 10:00 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers turned gloomier about the economy through mid-December even as the labor market shows some improvement and stocks have steadily risen, market sources said on Friday.
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment fell to 89.6 in December from November's final reading of 93.7, according to market sources who have seen the report. Economists had forecast a rise to 96.0.

The unexpected decline threw doubt on consumer spending during the holiday season, though measures of confidence have had little link to actual retail sales in recent years.

The current conditions index fell sharply, to 93.6 from 102.5 the prior month, while the expectations index slide to 87.1 from a final reading of 88.1 in November.

comment
It's going to be tough holding the Stock Market and US$ up today while keeping a lid on gold.
Boilermaker

commish

(12/12/2003; 08:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113334)

I Must Be Insane

Picked up (10) MS61 10 dollar Gold coins. Paid 2% over wholesale. Did it with a 0% interest card card (thank you CitiBank). The credit card costs were waived (Christmas present from my dealer). Hope this good cheer lasts thru this election year. "Get your money for nothing and your chicks for free."

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 08:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113335)

Christmas dream?

@commish

Don't pinch yourself. What are MS61s?

commish

(12/12/2003; 09:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113336)

Mint State Coins

As opposed to regular bullion coins these coins are graded by quality. The grading system runs from from MS60-MS70 for uncirculated coins. A MS60 might have a few spots and nicks and a MS70 is in perfect condition. Each coin is in a plastic case and is known as a collectable. The $10 gold coins are 1/2 ounce of gold and were minted in the late 1800'S. Only about 25,000 of these rascals are around. Hope that helps.

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 09:22:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113337)

I stand corrected

I am certainly not blameless in the political arena either. Though I have not yet been deleted, I'm sure the censor's eye has found concern in some of my posts. I will endeavor to tighten focus.

Last evening I remarked that the financial press completely ignores any economic bear opinions. I just saw a bull/bear debate on Bloomberg that included representatives from DeutcheBank and ElliottWave.com. Too bad Bloomberg goes off the air at 8AM here, switching to the USA movie network, as I doubt that interchange would make the cut on CNBC.

My reaction oscillates between relief that both sides are getting press and concern about why now?

Is Bloomberg much more democratic than I'm used to, or are we slowly being prepped for BearMkt phase II.

1) Gold quotes are now being posted right along with RT market and finance graphics
2) Gold news stories seem to be much more regular, even on CNBC.
3) Bears are getting some airtime, mostly to talk about global finance issues, as their crash predictions still get laughed off the air.

If I believe folks like Jim Sinclair, David Tice, et al, the paper markets are teetering on implosion; BB says energy stockpiles are depleted beyond safe margins; MK says margins on bullion are
increasing. So many signals point to a "tough row to hoe" moving forward.

Got gold?

(12/12/2003; 09:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113339)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

What Me Worry?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/12/2003; 10:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113340)

Build your financial base

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Mr Gresham

(12/12/2003; 10:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113342)

Clink!

Lifeboat -- good one! Should we rename you "Splash!"?

Druid: Didn't the ancient ones have the magical power to cast a fog over their opponents? Seems like that's what's been done here, but it's over the people, and they don't know how to break the spell. Thanks.

steady

(12/12/2003; 10:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113343)

admin privleges

admin way to go.
i have had numerous posts deleted but so what its your form, thanks for having it and thanks for moderatring it, i just hope i post stuff that dont get deleted. if it does oh well it aint like its the end of the world or something.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 10:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113344)

Debt Math

The US Treasury is accumulating debt at a rate of more than $2 billion per calendar day or about $7/day for each of us in the US. This is our nest eggs, retirement funds, children's education, and ultimately our freedom. The debt will not be paid back in kind but will be demolished through the destruction of our financial assets. The fiscal stimulus is providing some near term relief but at a huge cost to our future. 99% of Americans are oblivious to the process underway. There are very few asset classes that will survive the flushing of the financial toilet. Precious metals and natural resources will survive.

Boilermaker

CoBra(too)

(12/12/2003; 10:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113345)

What Me Worry?

Exceptional reasoning pointed out in MK's News and Views!

Yes, what me worry, even if I'm from the EU, where the infant gold bull has not been as pronounced as vis a vis to the US dollar.

As I don't know, where and when the trigger to competitive devaluations will be pulled, but pulled it will. Let's watch the BOJ and in particular the actions of the Chinese together, no?

Meantime, there's no better way to protect your financial survival than going gold ... cb2

Clink!

(12/12/2003; 10:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113346)

Got the message about party politics, Sir Admin.

I'll suggest another title this time :- The Soul of Capitalism by William Greider. NO, NO ! DON'T CUT ME OFF ! IT'S NOT ABOUT RELIGION ! Phew ! The basic premise is that the fundamental driver of capitalism is to create a machine for the efficient deployment of capital and resources. This worked fine when there were real improvements in the quality of life, but what happens when there is more than enough of everything (like how much more food can you eat, when will they get to the 18-wheeler SUV, can you really use more bathrooms than people in a house, etc), and increasing the rhythm of the machine starts to have seriously deleterious effects on non-economic aspects of society, such as pollution, family life, obeisity, etc. How do you slow the machine down without breaking it ? This is particularly interesting at a time when there are visible signs of external pressures which might force the same thing via decrease of the purchasing power of the dollar and exportation of jobs to lower cost countries. Will this be the challenge of the fourth turning crisis ?

Fascinating stuff.
C!

Clink!

(12/12/2003; 10:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113348)

The Spend-like-drunken-sailors award

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={83656DED-98CE-4BC5-818D-855A9F228CAE}Good Grief, Black Blade ! Not only is this Robert Folsom guy using your by-line, but the text looks like a cut-and-paste from your postings over the last year ! There's an interesting line at the end of the article :-

Real drunken sailors don't think about details either, but at least they only spend their own money.

Mr Gresham : Glad you like the image. I have just realized what put the idea in my head in the first place !

C!

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 11:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113349)

Newmont asked to disclose environmental policies to shareholders

Comtex Business WireNewmont Mining Faces Significant Potential Liabilities in its Mining Operations: Investors Call on Gold Company to Disclose and Address Environmental and Social Liabilities

December 12, 2003 12:52:00 (ET)

snip:

BOSTON, Dec 12, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- This week, investment company Boston Common Asset Management filed a shareholder resolution with Newmont Mining Corporation, the world's largest gold-mining firm, calling on the company to prepare a report on the risk to the company's operations, profitability and reputation from its social and environmental liabilities.

The company, which has mining operations in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Central Asia and the US, has been dogged by allegations that its mines in these countries are polluting local waterways and are harming the health of nearby communities. Some local communities have protested the company's planned operations in environmentally and culturally sensitive areas. The firm is currently under investigation by the US Department of Justice over accusations that it bribed officials in Peru to gain ownership of its highly-profitable Yanacocha mine.

To address the problems that underlie these potential liabilities, Boston Common is also requesting that Newmont Mining develop policies on operating in protected areas, provide sufficient funds for long-term environmental clean-up, and provide full disclosure of the company's impact on the environment, labor and human rights. Boston Common filed the resolution on behalf of its client, The Brethren Benefit Trust, Inc. (BBT), which is the financial arm of the Church of the Brethren. BBT holds approximately 3,100 shares of Newmont Mining Corporation common stock.

With its recent acquisitions and global expansion, Newmont Mining has become increasingly exposed to risk to the company's operations, profitability and reputation from its social and environmental liabilities. These liabilities, including environmental clean-up costs, compensation to displaced or otherwise aggrieved local communities and related legal expenses, may total hundreds of millions of dollars, thus representing a significant cost to the company.

Lauren Compere of Boston Common Asset Management remarked, "Newmont Mining senior executives purport to be committed to sustainable development and but we continue to have concerns as investors that the company is not fully disclosing its social and environmental liabilities. We feel that Newmont Mining needs to disclose not only its potential liabilities but also what policies the company will put in place to avoid those costs in the future."

Goldilox:

Environmental issues are normal in extraction of resources, as treatment and restoration definitely add to costs of extraction. Unlike forestry, the issue in mining is not about renewing the resource, but more often leaving the surroundings and water resources inhabitable. Investors are asking to be informed of Newmont's risks and the potential effects on cost projections.

These questions invariably affect the supply chain in costs and scheduling.

Zhisheng

(12/12/2003; 11:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113350)

Up into the Close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Good close on the week: $409.

Another take-down attempt failed.

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 11:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113351)

Response from GG about special dividend

I received an email from Rob McKuen of GoldCorp in thanks for the suggestion of paying dividends in physical instead of fiat. I bet a lot of shareholders made similar suggestions, probably quite a few inspired on this forum. The response indicated that GG was investigating methodology for potential implemention.

Perhaps MK will get a call to participate in some physical trade scheme. It would be smart of GG to involve an experienced retailer rather than ramp up some internal effort. Who knows?
It's an indication, however, that the participants on this forum are being heard throughout the gold community. CPM can be proud of that, and hopefully the advertising value is being felt, as well.

slingshot

(12/12/2003; 11:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113352)

Christmas Jingle

You better not scoff.
You better not cry.
The economys great,I'm telling you why.
Alan Greenspan, coming to town.

He knows you have been spending.
He knows the interest rate.
He knows their is equity in your home.
But a Ford for goodness sake.

Well, you better not scoff.
And you better not cry.
USAGOLD, has a really good buy.
Hey Alan won't you give them a try.

Great to be a GOLDBUG.

Slingshot--------------<>

mikal

(12/12/2003; 12:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113353)

@Goldilox

Re: "...treatment and restoration definately add to costs of extraction." Good points. Besides environmental, the ENERGY costs and availability in mining operations can make or break a mine. We can see the energy complex is still rising. Black Blade has pointed out that power can even be rationed in a region where politically favored cities or towns require a guaranteed steady supply.

Rimh

(12/12/2003; 12:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113354)

Re: Newmont environmental policies

The timing on this particular set of allegations seems curiously like an attempt to discredit the most senior gold producer just as the gold price is appreciating. I'm sure Newmont will comply by providing information on all it's environmental policies in the various countries it operates. Newmont, as a major company, knows it can be a target for these kinds of allegations and has probably worked hard to establish safe and reasonable environmental practices. I don't know any of the details of the allegations, so they may have some merit, but this smells like a smear campaign to me.

Just my ramblings on the news...

Rimh

DryWasher

(12/12/2003; 13:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113355)

Dr. Ron Paul tells it like it is:

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/welcome.htm
The following is a reproduction of the December 8, 2003 column taken from "Project FREEDOM, Website of US Representative Ron Paul." as allowed by by the rules listed on the website.
DryWasher.

The Disappearing Dollar

Those who follow financial markets may be familiar with the term "strong-dollar policy," which is used by Bush administration officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan himself. One might assume that such a policy entailed a course of action designed to strengthen the value of the U.S. dollar. However, if we judge Fed policy by Mr. Greenspan's actions rather than his words, it appears we have a weak-dollar policy, a policy that erodes the value of your personal savings. The "strong-dollar policy" is nothing more than an empty political slogan.

The inescapable truth is that the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen over 30% in the past year, which to most people would not seem indicative of strength. There are several reasons for this decline, but the single biggest factor has been Mr. Greenspan's relentless increase of the money supply. There are roughly sixteen trillion dollars in worldwide use today, five trillion more than when Greenspan became Fed chair. The law of supply is immutable: When dollars are abundant they are also cheap.

For much of our history a gold standard imposed discipline on U.S. dollar policy, since every dollar printed theoretically was redeemable in gold. Since the last links between the dollar and gold were severed in 1971, the dollar essentially has operated as an article of faith. Christopher Mayer, writing for the Ludwig von Mises Institute, states: "Faith that paper money itself was of any lasting value would have struck our forebears as patently absurd."

The problem is that faith can be shaken, and the precipitous drop in the dollar shows how investors around the globe are very concerned about American deficits and debt. When government policies in a fiat system are the sole measure of a currency's worth, the currency markets act as a reliable barometer of how those policies are viewed around the world. Politicians often manage to fool voters and the media, but they rarely fool the financial markets over time. When investors lack faith in the U.S. dollar, they really lack faith in the economic policies of the U.S. government. The Medicare prescription drug bill passed two weeks ago provides an example of this phenomenon- the day after the bill passed, the dollar dropped once again. Investors understand that the new entitlement will cost trillions over coming decades, trillions that will come from Treasury printing presses and further devalue existing dollars.

Ultra-cautious investor Warren Buffett is trading heavily in foreign currencies for the first time, demonstrating his lack of faith in the dollar. His predicament is simple: He holds billions of dollars, and cannot afford to sit by and watch the value of those dollars drop another 30%. By taking a position against the U.S. dollar, his actions speak volumes.

Unlike Warren Buffett, most Americans are stuck with their U.S. dollars. Average people, particularly those who depend on savings or fixed incomes to fund their retirement years, cannot abide the continued devaluation of our currency. A true strong-dollar policy would require constriction of the money supply and higher interest rates, both of which would cause some short-term pain for the American economy. In the long run, however, such a correction is the only alternative to the continued erosion of our dollars.

Buongiorno!

(12/12/2003; 13:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113356)

CRB Index break-out

Catch the CRB at over 260--last twenty-year chart I saw would indicate a reversal of that long, long downtrend right about here. 265 for sure, depending upon how sharp your pencil is when you draw the line.

Tally-ho! The fox is on the run and the chase begins! (I think)
Buongiorno!

Strad Master

(12/12/2003; 14:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113357)

Leigh: Thoughts on the Stradivarius article

I don't always get to read the Forum these days as much as I'd like so I missed your kind posting of that article about Strad. Fortunately, I was talking to M.K. today and he mentioned it so I went to look it up. Someone had already e-mailed me a synopsis of it but it was nice to get to read all the details.

That's an interesting theory about Strad's violins although I'm not entirely sure that I buy it. (In my time I've heard a lot of plausible theories as well as some that aren't even rational.) I think the last paragraph sums it up best in saying that Strad was great because of a whole constellation of factors. He was extraordinarily wealthy during his life (It was a common saying during that time to describe a very wealthy person by saying; "He's as wealthy as a Stradivari!") so he was able to purchase the very finest of raw materials. The woods and varnishes were the absolute best so that, in conjunction with his extraordinary skill in all areas of violin making made his violins the prized masterpieces we have today. (I feel particularly blessed to be the caretaker of mine. In a recent test I got to put it up against an early, a "Golden" and another late period Strad (Mine is from 1728) and mine beat them all hands down for tone quality.)

As to the theory of the wood coming from trees that were grown in extra cold weather, the dates don't seem to line up well enough. According to the article the coldest period was between 1645 and 1715 while Strad's "Golden Period" was between 1700 and 1720. I was always led to believe that Strad used woods that in his day were already old - some as much as 200 years. If that is the case, as i believe it is, then those woods significantly pre-date the "cold" growing period. Even if he got wood that came from that cold growing era he still would have had to let it season for several years before he used it. There is no way he would have used freshly cut wood since it is simply too full of moisture to be any good. As an intersting sidebar, I have an amazing "bench copy" of my Strad that was made about 6 years ago. It looks in every respect just like the original - the varnish is perfectly copied and every scratch and mark is the same on both instruments. They are very difficult to tell apart and I've made some big-time experts "sweat bullets" trying to figure out which was which. One of the big giveaways is the fact that the real Strad (while it has the same amount of wood) is discernably lighter due to the evaporation of moisture. For those of you who are going to ask - no, thy don't sound the same, although the copy is a magnificent concert-level instrument and I've even made recording with it. I tend to take the copy with me on any long journeys since it is far cheaper to insure and unless you play them back to back nobody knows the difference. If anyone is interested, I'll try to post a few nice photos I have of my Strad, although I've had lots of dificulty in the past with posting pictures.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I'll try to keep a closer eye on this forum so as not to miss any positngs directed at me in the future.

Agingfast

(12/12/2003; 15:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113358)

Mr Gresham - re: "magical power to cast a fog over their opponents"

That was The Shadow - equipped with the power to cloud men's minds - he's been splitting his time between Washington and Wall Street in recent years.

Boilermaker

(12/12/2003; 15:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113359)

Strad Master

That was a wonderful post. You can be confident your instrument will keep its value like gold. My mother was a violinist, trained at Juilliard, who played well into her 80's. She played and performed all her life but never went professional. She (and I) loved the "Messiah" and other Christmas music.

CoBra(too)

(12/12/2003; 16:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113360)

@ Strad - Giacomo ANTONIO Stradivari, scholar of N. Amati,

... and his sons never lifted the secret of the special sound due to the specific woods they've used. As I understand, most of the 600 violins have been adapted in the late 1800's for more intense volume.

I'd bet your's is an original, almost never to be found again - a Stradivari - even better than gold!

I'm happy to report that this year's Vienna New Years concert with its philharmonic orchestra will again be conducted by Muti - and long forgotten Strauss et al compositions will be included.

Looking forward to this "golden" event and kind regards -cb2.

specie-man

(12/12/2003; 16:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113361)

The Great NICKEL Coin Melt

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2003/12/11/rtr1177297.htmlMany of us, I'm sure, remember the great silver coin melts in history (especially in the late '70s).

Now it seems China is scooping up obsolete nickel coins from around the globe and melting them for use as a raw material.

In 1933, gold coins were disappearing from circulation.
In 1969, silver coins were disappearing from circulation.

Extrapolation:
In 2005, nickel coins start disappearing from circulation.

The 1933 and 1969 dates are based upon the last years that coins containing gold or silver were released into circulation by the US Treasury.

Notice the 36 year intervals (1933-1969 and 1969-2005).

Imagine if the dollar "problem" got so bad that people would "cash out" their dollars for anything that they could get their hands on. In that type of scenario, I could see all copper/nickel coins dissapear as fast as the silver coins did. Could 2005 be the last year that the US issues coins with a copper/nickel content ? That may be a bit far-fetched, but not an impossible scenario. In 1982, the US changed the one-cent coin from a solid bronze (copper) composition to a copper-plated zinc planchet. That change was made partly due to the increasing price of copper at the time.

Don't look now, but the US 5-cent coin could be the first to go. The last time I checked, $5 face value in US nickels was approaching $2 in melt value. That might sound like a high "markup" (face value above melt). But I bet it is approacing the Treasury's discomfort zone. They are, of course, accustomed to much higher percentage markups.

Also note that throughout history, once a metal is deemed "too valuable" for use in coinage and is withdrawn from circulation, it never again appears in circulating coins.

I'm somewhat of a silver buff. I hear "old timers" say 'silver is as common as dirt - it will never be worth more than xxx'. In a few years, maybe I'll be telling some young dude: 'nickel is as common as dirt - it will never be worth more than xxx'.

PS:
A US Jefferson nickel is actually 75% copper and 25% nickel, by weight. Each coin weighs a total of 5 grams. that composition has not changed since the nickel 5-cent coin was first introduced in 1866 (except a brief period during WWII when nickels contained copper, silver, and manganese, but no nickel - that was needed for the war).

So $5 in nickels contains 375 grams of copper and 125 grams of nickel. 375 grams is almost exactly one pound. With copper at 98.8 cents per pound, the total value of the copper is about 99 cents. 125 grams is about a third of a pound. With nickel at $2.65 per pound, the total value of the nickel is about 88 cents. $1.87 combined.

My apologies to any "old timers" here.

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 16:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113362)

It's Your Money

CNBC's "It's Your Money" round table argued gold as an investment today, with Becky Quick and two Wall St hucksters. Becky and one of the hucksters agreed that gold had "finished it's run" and the smart money is leaving. The huckster even had the stupidity to suggest that the dollar decline is done! The other huckster said he liked Anglo because of the "safety" of their hedging practice and recommended option plays on the volatility.

It's interesting to see gold interest get more airtime, but I am so relieved to see that the mainstream still does not "get it"! None of them will be dining at this forum's table this holday season.

Who needs Comedy TV with these clowns on the air? A positive indicator like that tells me to CONTINUE accumulating gold and silver.

Federal_Reserves

(12/12/2003; 16:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113363)

GDP up 8.2% whereas Money Supply Growth down 8.2%

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf
Yes, thats right. The money supply is tanking while the growth rate of GDP is skyrocketing and the stock market reaches new highs.

What's wrong with this picture?

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 17:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113364)

Nickle coin melts

@ specie-man:

The exploding value of metals probably endangers all coinage. (Hyper) Inflation may just guarantee that action. At some point, the business community will emulate the IRS and round everything off to the nearest dollar, as fractions will not be worth the effort of handling and making change.

Imagine - no more $19.95 prices when they really mean $20.

"Imagine there's inflation,
It's easy if you try . . . " - Bill Gross

specie-man

(12/12/2003; 17:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113365)

CORRECTION - The Great NICKEL Coin Melt

I was using Tin prices, not Nickel prices - duh.

Nickel currently lists at $6.13 per pound (up 10 cents a pound today !).

So $5 in US nickels are acutually worth over $3 ($3.03, to be exact).

So the melt value is a lot closer to the face value than I thought !

PS:
Nickel is also, technically, a platinum-group metal.
If the melt value goes over $4.00 for $5 in nickels, maybe I'll start hoarding some.

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 17:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113366)

Nickle coin melts

Coin Collectors take notice - your collection values should skyrocket if this becomes widespread!!

. . . sort of like $20 gold pieces worth over $400

(:^) Goldilox

P.S. Since books are going electronic and contracts can be so easily broken, there is only one sure use left for paper!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/12/2003; 17:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113367)

Countdown refinement. December 17th is the deadline to get Christmas orders in to Marie by 3:30pm MST.

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

6 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

Solomon Weaver

(12/12/2003; 17:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113368)

Dear President Bush

Dear President Bush,

As an American, I am proud to have been born in, and to earn my way in the country which has defined the global social, political, and economic realm throughout the world since the end of WWII.

American served as a great and resourceful nation to the allied forces in WWII, who overcame the evil schemes of facists, and even converted these same facist nations back to two of the strongest economies in the world....all of us joining forces to provide a context which allowed the capitalist and free economies of the world to outpace the communist world.

Many of us are aware that the decision of former President Nixon to take the dollar off a gold standard in 1971 (essentially ending the Bretton Woods Agreement), was an expedient move to preserve the status of the dollar, and probably even was justified with a world at "cold war". At the same time, with the dollar as the "new standard" it also gave the US Government a very important responsibility.

As you may well understand, gold, which once served as an important financial reserve asset for any nation participating in global trade, has now diminished in status, having been primarily supplanted by "issued monies" and primarily dollars. At the same time, gold has not lost its importance, and any simple analysis will show that gold as a financial asset, still trades in this world as if it were a currency.

Even as proud as I may be to be an American, I must admit that the rapid escallation in the amount of dollar debt and dollar issued in the last ten years is shocking and disturbing. Understanably started by President Clinton, but not stopped by your administration, and particulary facilitated by the artificially low interest rates which you have allowed the US Federal Reserve to set during your administration, have now led to a terrible crisis which many Americans don't really understand.

Specifically, the virtue of any productive citizen to save capital, and to provide that capital (through lending banks) to its own nation for the purpose of business investment, has been severely dis-incentivized. As a matter of fact, since the rest of the world has eagerly been sending their very own savings back to the USA, the average American (and American Business, and local, state, and federal government) have been encouraged to borrow instead of save.

So, now, as an American who does save, I find I am so poorly rewarded for my willingness to keep my savings in the bank. I am now witnessing a large and ongoing loss in the trading value of the dollar in most other international currencies, combined with many hidden inflationary effects in assets which are somehow filtered out of the CPI. I have done all I can to get family out of any debt, so that I may remain a strong and productive citizen, but in protection of may savings, I have over the recent years been forced to consider owning other currencies.

As a patriot, do you expect me to use my savings to buy and hold Euros or Yen? The only real option remaining is to invest in gold and silver. Under the new politic which is now being defined by the large reorganisation of the government to create a Homeland Security Department, and to grant that department access to many details of citizens financial holdings and transactions, it is now being proposed that all trade in tangibles such as jewelry and precious metals must be documented. Austensibly, this is to prevent the use of these tangible items by terrorists for the purposes of illicit financings.

Most Americans will understand that: "dogs have 4 legs, cats have 4 legs, therefore, dogs are cats" is an incorrect statement....because it uses true facts, but false logic. But, by passage of sweeping acts of disclosure on ownership of gold and silver we run into a very serious problem of: "terrorists pay with gold, John Q pays with gold, therefore, John Q is a terrorist".

To the contrary, many of the staunchest and most patriotic Americans have never lost the understanding that owning some gold was good for hard times...and many of the same citizens are increasing their gold holdings...as they see hard times coming, and they want to remain as independantly strong citizens.

As you soon consider whether you will pass this bill, I am not even certain that I would sway you either way...more importantly, I believe that you should insist that the bill should be modified to strongly proclaim to all US citizens that tangible assets such as precious metals, which can be shown to have been purchased with honest savings, are a protected hallmark of the American Financial Structure....and that the Federal Government will defend the constitutional right of all citizens to save assets of these kind.

Thank you,

Poor old Solomon

specie-man

(12/12/2003; 18:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113369)

One More Time - nickel coin values

Ok, apparently, the industrial metals (futures) prices are in Avoirdupois pounds and not Troy pounds. I used 373 grams per pound but it should be 454 grams per pound.

So the true current melt value of $5 in nickels is $2.50 .

Goldendome

(12/12/2003; 19:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113370)

(No Subject)

Gold Silver Ratio 73.291 + .463 12-12-03

Smeagol

(12/12/2003; 19:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113371)

Gold:Silver ratio?

Eh? We have seen this ratio here and there, in our sneakings on the great Web. Some use this as a lever to increase their Metal holdings, by buying Silver when the ratio iss high, as it is now, and then trade that for It, when the ratio drops, and then trade It back for Silver when the ratio goes up again, all over time, of course, yess. sss... Does this work? Of course, things ssuch as premiums and other cossts have to be figured in. But how WELL does it work? (And, Precious, are there other ratios involving It and other thingss?)

S.

Smeagol

(12/12/2003; 20:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113372)

Less work, more play?

We were lisstening to Master's talking-box today, and it said that 14,000 jobs were losst in California last MONTH. Not happy holidays for all, O no...

S.

Liberty Head

(12/12/2003; 20:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113373)

Just For Fun

Today's discussion on the nickle got me thinking about pennies.
I hate pennies with a passion, but I thought I might change my mind if pennies were made from a more interesting metal. Hmmmm! Like gold for instance. Yeah! That's the ticket. Maybe the mint could put a gold earring in Lincoln's ear?
I wanted to better visualize what a gold penny would look like.
My research shows production and distribution costs for the penny are over 80% of the face value, leaving less than 20% for gold costs.
With gold at $410/oz, without costs going over face value, about 217,000 solid gold pennies could be made with the gold from a one ounce gold eagle.

The picture is more clear. There you are with your jewlers eye loupe and a pair of tweezers, picking up 50 little pieces of gold foil and trying to stack them in a tiny paper coin tube. No doubt, the bank would still insist you write your account number on each tube as well.

Nah! I would still hate pennies.

Best Wishes

(12/12/2003; 20:48:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113374)

Smeagol. . .

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/12/04/MNG0Q3FQD31.DTL"And, Precious, are there other ratios involving It and other thingss?"

I'm glad you asked that, good Smeagol. Come closer and I will whisper in your ear:

"Iranian law retains an old Islamic definition of blood money as one of the following: 100 camels, 200 cows, 1,000 sheep, 200 silk dresses, 1,000 gold coins or 10,000 silver coins." (Link above has details.)

So there you have it, good friend. Ratios of all kinds. Now you must find a place to sit quietly. . .think. . .count. . .

Cytek

(12/12/2003; 21:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113375)

I think Snow was crying today

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3985949≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currenciesJohn Snow said the dollar's decline was "orderly," a comment dollar bears took as a green light to sell the currency, analysts said.

Snow noted on Bloomberg Television, "The dollar on a traded-weighted basis is still higher today than it has been for most of the last 25 years."

Later, during the New York trading day, President George W. Bush called for a strong U.S. dollar and suggested a strengthening U.S. economy should lend support to its value.

Cytek
Does the left had know what the right hand is doing or are they both confused and trying to confuse the markets? Or are Snow's comments saying the dollar's decline has been orderly because we the treasury have been propping it up because if we haden't it would be disastrous.
Got Gold? you better.

Gandalf the White

(12/12/2003; 21:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113376)

FORGET the Nickels !!!

specie-man (12/12/03; 18:51:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113369)
One More Time - nickel coin values
===
BUT --- Sir Specie-man, you forgot the REFINING Costs !
It is best to just get the 0.9999 PURE Au from USAGOLD !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/12/2003; 22:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113377)

History of paper excess

@Solomon Weaver:

Not to defend President Clinton, but just for clarity, he was in no way the first to debase the currency. It's been going on pretty regularly since FDR (and was heavily utilized by Washington and Lincoln to finance their wars). The demos tax and spend and the republicans borrow and spend. The one thing they have in common is they love to spend more than their predecessor. That's why the dollar curve is so smooth all the way down. No one has dared interrupt the cash creation process for fear of shutting down a system that can't seem to sustain itself without "stimulus" that has become confused with "growth".

Cometose

(12/12/2003; 23:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113378)

gold mining shares in the metals bull of the 70's

Edward Gofsky article at FSO has some historical data on mining stocks in the former metals bull market.....You won't believe the prices these companies came from and went too ..........Great Article worth a read from Financial Sense University ....my apologies in advance if this is already posted info....this is not fantasy :these are facts....it's a pretty good barometer to follow to get your expectations adjusted for what happened the last time....He said that this may rival the dot.com bubble.....in multiples

Smeagol

(12/13/2003; 00:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113379)

Thinking... and counting...

Sss...and getting hungry! Too bad they don't ssay anything about fish in their law... we thinks we could get LOTS of fish!
We assumes that Gold or Silver Dinars are the coins mentioned in the ancient Iranian law that kindly Sir MK whispers in our ears?...or?

Still thinkin'... and sneakin - we cant sit sstill,
Probably because we jusst read the 'Gold Derivative Banking Crisis' article by GATA. Ssss... ssoon we will ssurely all live in interessting times...

Blood money is costly to criminals, and jusstly sso. But ach! ssss... Paper money is costly to Everyone!

S.

Smeagol

(12/13/2003; 00:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113380)

ACH!

Where'd everyone go... O, it's a new day where you are... yikes... we feel ssso uncomfortable being firsst! Nowhere to hide!

S.

Dollar Bill

(12/13/2003; 05:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113381)

*>*

http://members.aol.com/sdamuth/ndx1212.gifMore life to the naz left to go. link to chart.

I checked and didnt see this news posted yet...
No move in OPEC to euro oil pricing, says Attiyah
Friday December 12, 11:25 am ET
By Edmund Blair

CAIRO, Dec 12 (Reuters) - OPEC (News - Websites) will not consider switching dollar-denominated oil sales to the euro because of the difficulties involved in such a ground-breaking shift, cartel President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar said on Friday....Attiyah rejected a suggestion from outgoing Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Secretary-General Alvaro Silva that producers might debate the move to counter the decline in the dollar's value against other currencies. "I don't think we will discuss it. I don't think it is the right time to discuss it because we believe it is not easy to switch from currency to currency," Attiyah said...."Yes, I am concerned about the weaker dollar but we believe we should be pragmatic, that we cannot switch because it is very complicated."

OPEC could not afford to make the shift only to find the currency market favouring the dollar again, he added.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Non-OPEC Russia, encouraged by European politicians seeking to bolster the euro's prestige, has said the move to euro pricing might be possible for Russian oil sales to euro zone countries.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(12/13/2003; 06:52:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113382)

@Solomon Weaver - Dear Mr President

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmFrom ANOTHER site:

"This morning:

Gold: Confiscation Move Begins?
A number of banks, Washington Mutual, Sterling Savings Bank, and Venture Bank among them, reportedly have sent out "Changes in Terms" notices to all of their customers. As of January 1st say the reports, you won�t be able to store cash, or gold or silver in your safe deposit boxes! I�ve written to Washington Mutual for a comment, but haven�t heard back from them yet. Most people don�t even read the "change in Terms" because it�s not a negotiated thing. You accept the terms or find another bank. So these "notices" usually get "round filed" without reading. Except by our sharp-eyed readers.

Confiscation set up? The fine print and a few scattered calls seem to indicate that this is being done under the disguise of "National Security", but it�s a far stretch for us to figure how our small pile of coins in a safe deposit box constitutes a threat to the country. Unless the buck is in bigger trouble than we ever thought - and judging by overnight currency moves, that could very well be the case!

Please call your bank today, and ask them if it�s true that no bullion/coins/currency will be allowed in their safe deposit boxes starting January 1st. and then file a report by clicking here. If it turns out to be true, one could infer without being written off as a Looney (a crazy person, not the Canadian coin) that the events of post 9/11 are being used to set up gold confiscation. Especially when you couple this development with reports that Homeland Security has sneaked through authority to force all gold sales books - including coin shops - be opened for federal inspectors.

How would you set up confiscation? Like I need a safe deposit box for storing my car titles and such? That�s why cars are registered and we have things like lost title reports and the like.
We might be at that place I warned of couple of years ago, when I advised readers that as we buy gold (at $260) it should be in U.S. Eagles or Canadian Maples because the Eagle is coin of the realm - and harder to confiscate, and with NAFTA, if there is a shiny side to that beast, it may be that having a little Canadian money around the house is excusable. The no brainer investment of a lifetime? Investing in a home safe mounted in lots of concrete and rebar that you don�t talk about."

Max Rabbitz

(12/13/2003; 08:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113383)

It's not like they weren't warned

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/13/business/13gas.html?ex=1071896400&en=203a5fbf3b186f43&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLNatural Gas rose to over $7 on Friday.

"Natural gas is so critical to U.S. consumers and the economy that if someone has been manipulating this market they should go to Jail" said Senator Orrin Hatch, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

He plans to hold hearings in January. Perhaps he could just review the warnings from Chairman Greenspan earlier this year and then pass an energy bill with some practical measures to increase supply. But instead the politicians need to pander to ignorant consumers and special interests only interested in access to cheap natural resources.

Good thing Black Blade has a Black Belt.

Remarx

(12/13/2003; 08:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113384)

Gold Across Borders Questions

Gandalf has given me some good advice and anecdotal information about transporting gold between the US and Canada. Does anyone have a link to official or specific information? Does one need to declare it if the value is less than $10,000? Are there any other laws one should know about?

Thanks in advance. -r

DryWasher

(12/13/2003; 08:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113385)

@WAC (Wide Awake Club)(msg#: 113382)

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
If you go to the given link you will find the following added item which casts considerable doubt on the veracity of the purported rule changes:

"Banks and Gold Update
About half a dozen readers called their banks yesterday and got a resounding "No, we don't care what goes in your safe deposit boxes" and among them was a Washington Mutual, so we're going to lower our level of concern. ...............................".

DryWasher:
If by some chance that report should turn out to be true, which seems doubtful at the moment, it would indeed raise serious concerns about the intentions of our government. In my opinion the safety of a bank deposit box is, and always has been, in doubt. Remember what FDR did in the 1930's.

Physical Gold,in your possession, stored in a place,or places, where no one else can find it, particularly if no one else knows you have it, is the best insurance you that can have in my opinion.

DryWasher.

Max Rabbitz

(12/13/2003; 08:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113386)

A question for Senator Hatch

It sounds like there's no Jail time involved for manipulation of markets that are not so important, like those of outdated and barbaric commondity metals once used as money. Not even important enough for an investigation.
We shall see.

Camel

(12/13/2003; 09:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113387)

Golden Opportunity for the Green Party

Enclosed is a letter advocating a partial gold backing for the dollar that has been circulating in the upper levals of the Green Party. So far this has been very well received and could possibly become part of the national platform. All pretty elementary to people here, but it has taken them almost completely by surprise.

***************

While economics is not an exact science there are one or two axioms that have risen to the level of Law . One of these is that excessive money creation eventually leads to inflation. As more and more money is printed the value of the that money gradually decreases and prices of almost everything begin at rise.

Most liberals have at one time or another been ridiculed for supporting "Keynesian economics", that is ,big government social programs financed by deficit spending, but these criticisms have largely gone unheeded because most feel that government social programs are necessary to counteract the many injustices and inequities that exist in society.

It is ,however,equally true that Keynesian economics has been the enabler of almost every war in recent history,and perhaps if people had to pay for their wars ( rather than just print the money) they might be less inclined to engage in them. No better example can be found than the recent 87 billion appropriation for the Iraq war, accompanied by big tax cuts.

Keynesian economics came into being during the 1930's depression, when it was determined that it would be necessary for the government to inject large amounts of money into the economy so as to extricate the country from an intractable depression.

As a necessary corollary to this was the simultaneous abandonment of the gold standard, which stipulates that a countries paper currency can be redeemed at any time for a certain amount of gold. The idea of a gold standard is incompatible with Keynesian economics because people would simply take the newly printed dollars created out of thin air and redeem them for gold, quickly exhausting the nations gold reserves.

So in a sweeping economic program aimed at ending the depression, Roosevelt repudiated the gold standard , confiscated all existing gold supplies in private hands and made it illegal for US citizens to own gold , (except for jewelry and antique coins.) It has been illegal for US citizens at own gold until the early 1970s.

Gold is the antithesis of the dollar. The dollar represents a society that has been corrupted by a shadowy, unaccountable financial and corporate elite that has gained control of the credit creation mechanism to enact a scheme of world domination. Unlimited credit bestows unlimited power.Current outstanding credit of the various sectors of the US economy now totals about 30 trillion.( as compared to the total value of the US stock market of about 12 trillion). It is the power bestowed by this 30 trillion with which America rules the world.

Perhaps because gold was illegal in this country for nearly 40 years the idea of gold and a gold standard is something that is almost completely foreign to contemporary American thought. We live in a highly ethnocentric, dollar centric world in which certain assumptions and predisposition are totally unquestioned. Not so the rest of the world.

Probably the most significant event in the world of international finance in recent years has been the launch of the European currency the Euro. The combined European Union has a population and a GNP greater than that of the US and its currency came into being as a way to overthrow the tyranny of the dollar, that has prevailed since the end of WW II.

Largely unknown to the American public the Euro has a 15 % gold reserve requirement, which places a theoretical limit on the extent to which credit may be created. The US dollar has no such backing,nor is it possible for it to have such a backing because there is simply not enough gold to cover the 30 trillion of monetary aggregates that have already been created

This is the Achilles heal of the American empire.

The rest of the world has an affinity for gold. The countries of the Mideast, China, India, Africa have a history of gold dating back 5000 years. It is in their blood, and they understand it in a visceral way that we do not. They also have been the primary victim of American economic imperialism they have seen their economies become ever increasingly dominated by American corporations and their native cultures overwhelmed by the seemingly unlimited supply of money.

Almost any one with a job in America can get a credit card with a $5,000 line of credit. He or she then goes to Walmart and buys goods produced in China and the fictitious dollars end up in a Central Bank in China. The consumer here becomes hopelessly entrapped in debt often paying 18% interest to the loan sharks and the bank in China has huge deposits of American dollars that they can't dispose of.

Total consumer debt in this country is about 9 trillion about 1 trillion of which is credit card debt.
Because the U.S is the worlds largest consumer Central Banks around the world gradually have come keep about 75 % of their reserves in dollar denominated assets, masking the inflationary pressure of excess dollar creation in this country by absorbing all the extra dollars. To counter these imbalances ,which have been building for decades, the rest of the world is engineering a switch from the dollar to the Euro and gold . All they have to do is sell their dollars and buy gold. The value of the dollar goes down and the value of gold goes up, and they have struck a blow against the arrogant Americans.

This could provide a golden opportunity for the Green Party to align itself with the rest of the world as well as expand its political base by achieving a meeting of the minds with a wide spectrum of groups such as the Libertarians nominally on the far right demanding more fiscal responsibility.

The Green party should propose the same reserve structure for the dollar as now exists for the Euro .This would put the Green Party in a leadership role on an issue that is not yet fully on the event horizon of public awareness and could potentially gain many votes from individuals on the right who are disgusted and disenchanted with the American economic system but have no effective political voice.

Gandalf the White

(12/13/2003; 10:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113388)

My ONLY political post !

Camel (12/13/03; 09:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 113387)
Golden Opportunity for the Green Party
---
The HOBBITS party is totally ON the GOLD STANDARD !
Go HOBBITS !
OK, -- ENOUGH of this stuff !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/13/2003; 10:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113389)

Friday's rally

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnippit:

"Forgive me for being so openly skeptical of the market.� Despite the decline of the dollar, the Dow managed to rise, and as we pointed out earlier in the week, the Dow may just be doing what real estate has.� Namely, go up in price (not to be confused with value) due to inflation. From Monday's close around 9965, with the morning dollar conversion at .819 Euro, to Friday's Euro .813, the market could theoretically rise to 10038 on the currency shift alone.� We ended four points above that.�
Goldilox:

Thanks for the post, WAC. If the dollar has dumped about 25% of its value in the last year, then a proportional rise in $ denominated portfolio shares has done no more than hedge its original value (BEFORE TAX DRAIN). Market hucksters touting 25-35% returns are essentially offering the unwary public a flat line hedge against the dollar's fall. Whoopie!

As we all know gold, is a much safer hedge, given the MUCH greater propensity of equities to fall back.

With gold rising only about 35% this year, recalculation of its value strongly suggests that manipulation is still successful at price depression. POG should be much higher if there has been any real appreciation. This is why gold prices expressed in other currencies are flat or even lower.

To me this suggests that appreciation in PMs is still in the wings, as it must break out beyond the dollar depreciation to experience a major rise in "value".

Get gold - protect your wealth by protecting your stash.

Gandalf the White

(12/13/2003; 10:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113390)

Two "RANTS" on slow day ! <;-)

Sir DryWasher said:
DryWasher (12/13/03; 08:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 113385)
@WAC (Wide Awake Club)(msg#: 113382)
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

If you go to the given link you will find the following added item which casts considerable doubt on the veracity of the purported rule changes:

"Banks and Gold Update
About half a dozen readers called their banks yesterday and got a resounding "No, we don't care what goes in your safe deposit boxes" and among them was a Washington Mutual, so we're going to lower our level of concern.
===

YES, Sir DryWasher !! The BANKS do not care ! --- THEY just do as DIRECTED ! IF, the Government says, "JUMP !", they do ! AND, THERE goes the GOLD in the "Safe" Deposit Box !
Have you ever wondered WHY they are called "Safe" Deposit Boxes ?
---
OH yes, one more rant, I remember reading a post about someone asking the U.S.A. Customs Official about taking or bringing 200 U.S. Gold Eagles into and out of the Country --- IT may not be the U.S.A Official that has a concern, BUT the Official of the other country that you go TO or FROM as you depart or come back to the U.S.A. !!!!
---
I know of a specific case where a nameless traveler was accused of SMUGGLING Gold into Thailand ! He had only five ounces and was jailed until the U.S. Embassy interviened.
YES, Let us find the RULES and have a legal decision !
ANY lawyers out there willing to expound on this ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/13/2003; 10:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113391)

ATTN: ALL LURKERS and newbies !!! Did you see this ? <;-)

Take a TRIP into the "Archives" to 12/11/03 -- Message # 113264MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"
We haven't done this for a long time, but this looks like a good time to do it again:

We would like to get the lurkers involved, get some new thoughts, ideas, opinions in the mix here at the Forum.

So. . .

The next 50 first time posters will receive a free copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing" delivered to your door. Here's how to get one:
====
EARLY Christmas Present !
<;-)

misetich

(12/13/2003; 12:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113392)

Global: Labor-Market Spin - S. Roach MorganStanley

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031212-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

The spin-meisters are hard at work proclaiming the long awaited healing of the US labor market. Jobs have now been up for four months in a row, and many of the so-called leading indicators of future employment growth -- jobless claims, work schedules, and purchasing managers� hiring intentions -- are flashing green. And so the verdict has been rendered: At long last, the great American hiring machine is finally shifting gears -- marking a critical turning point for the US economy on the road to sustainable recovery.

I don't buy it. As I read the US labor market, there is still compelling evidence of a fundamental breakdown in the time-honored relationship between aggregate demand and employment. While it seems that the worst of the layoff carnage is over in the aggregate -- at least for the time being -- this recovery bears no relationship whatsoever to the classic hiring-led upturns of the past.
....................
There seems to be a real disconnect between the actual numbers on the hiring front and the impressions that have been formed in financial markets. Total nonfarm payrolls have expanded by only 328,000 workers over the August to November 2003 period -- an average of 82,000 per month. That's far short of the pace of job creation that normally occurs at this stage in a business cycle recovery -- somewhere in the range of 250,000 to 300,000 per month. Yet many have been quick to interpret the recent modest pickup in hiring as a sign that Corporate America is finally breaking the shackles of risk aversion and emerging from the funk of recent years. The mix of recent hiring trends tells a very different picture. It turns out that fully 84% of the total increase in nonfarm payrolls over the August to November period is traceable to hiring in four segments of the labor market -- the temporary staffing industry, health, education, and government -- where combined jobs have increased by 68,000 per month. In other words, the bulk of the so-called hiring turnaround since August has been concentrated in either the contingent workforce (temps) or in those industry groupings that are least exposed to global competition. This hardly speaks of a US business sector that has consciously made an important transition from downsizing to expansion. It merely reflects the fact that scale is increasing in the most sheltered and least productive segments of the economy.
***************
Misetich

Roach joins the chorus of goldbugs in "doubting" Feds statistical reporting

The spinmasters are governing through lies and deceit- evidence Retail Sales which was pronounced by the Feds distributed propoganda yesterday as being significantly higher than that reported by retailers

Trillions of $ have disappeared as gullible investors followed this deceitful pipepipers

..and trillions more debt has been accumulated...

Two ways out - default or hyperinflation

The Feds have chosen the latter...

A little PHYSICAL GOLD ACCUMULATION is in order to protects one's wealth and/or retirement

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/13/2003; 12:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113393)

Natural Gas Price Soars 46 Percent

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/ap/ap_story.html/Financial/AP.V5555.AP-Natural-Gas-Ral.html#Snip:

WASHINGTON (AP)--A 46 percent surge in the price of natural gas since Thanksgiving has been so startling, one analyst has suggested the futures markets should be investigated.

Natural gas for January delivery rose surged 60.6 cents, or 9 percent, Friday to $7.221 per 1,000 cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest close since Feb. 28, when prices settled at $8.10, and was $2.30 above the Nov. 26 close.

As a result, consumers could see higher energy bills as early as next month, analysts said. Any increase won't be nearly as severe as the recent run-up in futures prices because
***************
Misetich

...and as Blackblade has been forwarning you haven't seen nothing yet!

..The Feds reported no inflation in the PPI index yesterday...

Warning - Warning

A Tsunami of import price inflation has been accumulating in the shores of exporters to US markets...

...The said tsunami caused by inflation in the shores of theose exporters, coupled with a lower US $ is said to be leaving those shores within the next few months.

...though with the "voyage delay" (as it works and imbeds itself within the US economy) it ought to hit US coastline during the summer of 2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/13/2003; 12:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113394)

Saudi Arabia Sees No Oil Shortage

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=PREKDXP4YFDI2CRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=3987444Snip:

CAIRO (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, said on Saturday it would not consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars despite a weakened U.S. currency.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi also said he was concerned about a surge in oil prices, which has sent U.S. crude to around $33 a barrel, but added the rise was not due to a shortage of supply but rather issues such as the weather and speculators.

When asked if Saudi Arabia would consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars, Naimi, who was in Cairo for a meeting of ministers from Arab oil exporting nations, said: "No." "Nobody is talking about the euro... As far as I know I have never said anything about the euro," Naimi said, adding that OPEC would not discuss the issue of switching sales to the European currency when the cartel meets on February 10.

Outgoing secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Alvaro Silva, had earlier said producers might debate such a move to counter the dollar's decline.

But Naimi's view on the euro was echoed by other Arab OPEC ministers meeting in Cairo.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar earlier dismissed the idea saying OPEC could not afford to make the move only to find the currency market favoring the dollar again.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

World crude prices rose after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this month said they were targeting a higher price to offset purchasing power lost to the dollar's dive. OPEC agreed to keep a tight rein on oil supplies.

****************
Misetich

The "Euro" card is being played by OPEC - as a first step they have demanded higher prices due to the devaluation of US $ -

The second step - the pricing in Euro's and/or a basket of currencies

The third step - pricing in Euros

Fourth step - demanding payment in GOLD

Just as China has obtained US concenssion (Taiwan) so will OPEC's through the initial higher price band

Of course nothing to worry about re: price inflation in the US - just ask the Feds

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/13/2003; 13:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113395)

Treasury Budget - UP UP and AWAY

http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/treasury_budget/year/2003/yearly/12/index.htmlSnip:

The U.S. Treasury reported a November budget deficit of $43.0 billion, well below expectations and well below the $58.8 billion deficit last November. The balance benefited from a sharp 9.9 percent year-on-year drop in outlays to $161.1 billion. But the Congressional budget office noted that outlays were skewed lower by a calendar quirk -- November 1 fell on a weekend crowding government payments into late October. Total receipts were $118.2 billion, 0.2 percentage points below last year despite sharply higher economic strength in the 2003 November. Given the quirk, the data will not affect expectations for rising government deficits and financing needs.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Treasury usually runs a budget deficit of roughly $35 billion dollars during the month of November. If the trend holds, this would be smaller than October's budget deficit of $69.5 billion. Lately, tax receipts have improved over a year earlier, but outlays were growing more rapidly than receipts versus year ago figures.

******************
Misetich

Skewed by a calendar quirk - uuhm - Tax receipts are higher comparative to last year - No surprise there - it should be with billions of stimuli thrown to revive the jobless recovery

..spending is increasing and with higher energy prices and oncoming price inflation, military spending etc etc. $500-600 billions is in the bag - not counting IR, off-budget items etc etc

Debt to the penny you ask?

12/11/2003 $6,939,621,502,947.36

..only $60+ billions away from 7 TRILLIONS

..though its pittance comparatively to what MR O'Neil has reported - $44 trillions and GROWING

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox

(12/13/2003; 13:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113396)

Budget deficit

@misetich

Thanks for the uplifting budget deficit update (LOL).

Gee - 6 Tr to 7 Tr in only six months - that's astonishing - at least to anyone not on Prosac. . .

I think the government drug testing rules need to be better inforced. We could start by testing everyone in Congress and the current administration for FORMALDEHYDE! They may be the "walking dead".

misetich

(12/13/2003; 13:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113397)

People Who Own Gold

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Snip:

Foreign central banks are shifting into overdrive on their holdings of US debt last week, as evidenced by their balances at the Fed increasing by $9 billion to a new record. Hahaha! Dorks!

Just to show those jerk foreigners that they haven't cornered the market in stupidity, US banks also bought up a nice $4 billion themselves!

But, and if you really want to see something scary, walk with me over to where the Treasury holds sway, and we will cling to each other in fear and whimper pitifully as we watch vile specters swirl around us, and we note that they issued another $17 billion of debt in the same short week! The whole scene reminds me of the end of the movie "Raiders of the Lost Ark," where our intrepid hero, Indiana Jones and his perky girlfriend are bound to a post, and the Nazis are opening the Lost Ark of the Covenant and all those angels are swirling around. At first the specters are beautiful and friendly, like what happens when you first start printing money and creating excess credit. Everything is wonderful and lovely! Then, right before our very eyes, the angels metamorphose into shrieking, devouring demons, and everyone is killed and the earth is swept bare, except our hero and his lovely sidekick.

But getting back into something more attuned to reality as it really exists, we note that the Fed increased raw, fungible credit by $5.8 billion, too! In one week! And, I might add, to a new record, another new all-time new high, never before seen since the inception of the entire Federal Reserve System! A veritable avalanche of raw, naked credit, the original high-powered money if ever there were such a thing, the fabled Money Out Of Thin Air of story and song, money that can be multiplied by almost a hundred-fold, a thousand-fold, a million-fold, a zillion-fold, all through the miracle of fractional banking!
..........................
John Myers, of Outstanding Investments, as concerns gold, says "Take the number of ounces of gold needed to buy a share in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When gold became unrealistically priced at the end of 1980, one ounce of gold would buy one share in the Dow. That was when gold was at $800 per ounce and the Dow was at 800. In early 2000 that ratio became an incredible 42-to-1."

"In the same vein oil is also cheap. In 1980 it took 22 barrels of oil to buy one share in the Dow. By 2000 that ratio reached an astounding 545-to-1. Today, the ratio is still 312-to-1."
*****************

Misetich

Through time prices always comeback to its mean - Oil is cheap priced in any fiat currency and it will adjust upward as consumption increases - re Asia

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/13/2003; 13:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113398)

Dollar Falls for Fifth Week Versus Euro on Interest Rate View

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aYIhPcJE13ws&refer=homeSnip:

The dollar fell more than 2 percent against the euro in the week after Snow characterized the dollar's decline as ``fairly modest'' and defined dollar strength as ``confidence in the currency.''
.....................
Snow later said his comment did not indicate a change in U.S. policy. ``As I've said many times, we have a strong-dollar policy,'' he said. ``A strong dollar is good for America. We fell that the exchange value of currencies are best set in open, competitive markets.''
......................
*************

Mr. Snow is taking the "long view approach" and recognizes the overvaluation of US $ - The 10-12% current devaluation is 'modest' by any standards

..though Mr. Snow ought to be careful going forward - his "modesty" may lead him to be BURIED UNDER A PAPER AVALANCHE

..Mr. Snow is missing the "rails" he got used to in his previous employment - This locomotive (US $) has derailed

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/13/2003; 13:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113399)

FIVE days and counting down to place your order to ensure timely Christmas delivery

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Agingfast

(12/13/2003; 14:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113400)

misetich - re: Mogambo Guru Quotes

Daughty can be a howlingly funny writer but he just doesn't understand the Federal Reserve balance sheet that is released each Thursday. In the article you posted he complains about the increase of $4.4 bil. in currency in circulation (CIC) for the week ended 12/3/03 and the increase of $38.7 bil. for the year ended 12/3/03 and, as usual, implies that those increases are brought about by government people intent on inflating the currency. In fact, however, 1) changes in CIC are triggered by the public (CIC rises around holidays and in times of panic, such as the late 1999 surge in CIC as fears of Y2K problems peaked), 2) increases in CIC drain reserves, and therefore 3) the desk has to offset that drain with securities purchases. No plot - no conspiracy. Further, in the posted article Daughty again makes the mistake of comparing total reserves of about $41 billion with total bank ASSETS of about $4.4 trillion -- when, in fact, reserves apply against certain bank LIABILITIES and not against assets.

Goldendome

(12/13/2003; 16:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113401)

Unfunded future liabilities

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

An extremely interesting discussion today between James Puplava and Laurence Kotlikoff on the growing problem of U.S. unfunded liabilities. At the risk of triggering the interest and ire of the hoards of censors now screening for political content, here. [often the two (politics and finance)are so intertwined, that it's difficult to separate one from another!] I am going to forgo any embellishments on my part and limit what I print to quoted and paraphrased material from the discussion; attempting to winnow any partisanship that I might personally input, from the discussion presented.

Puplava begins the discussion with this statement: "Late last year, then Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill wanted to know: How prepared is the nation to pay for it's future bills?" ... The findings were so shocking, that the findings were not published, O'Neill was fired, and the report was censored from the budget report."

Laurence Kotlikoff then responds, that the report showed the U.S. to be essentially bankrupt with no way currently, to fund and pay for some $45 trillion in accrued liabilities; this is one of the problems, that all government programs are funded on a pay as you go basis.

Kotlikoff says that eventually the government will be faced with three choices:
1) Either taxes must be raised dramatically.
2) Benefits demanded and delivered must be cut.
3) Dollars must be printed to pay for the liabilities.

Kotlikoff then expands on number (3) by saying that at the moment printing of money appears to be the only remedy being considered. That soon, foreigners, (many of whom also face similar problems with aging populations in Europe and Japan) will come to recognize the U.S. problem, demand higher interest rates on our debt; and he fears, put us into a hyperinflated depression, such as Argentina.

Puplava offers, that this will probably happen in a maximum of five years.

Kotlikoff expresses an opinion that what we are doing now is, "fiscal child abuse." Because the problems are being pushed out onto younger generations: His kids, your kids, your grandkids!

Both men were astonished at the new Medicare prescription drug bill recently passed. Kotlikoff says that bill alone increases the unfunded liabilities to "$55 trillion dollars." And that "every year the unfunded liabilities total will grow by $2 trillion."

-----------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------

Well-- you don't have to have been reading, writing, or lurking on this forum for long, to have learned much of this already. As many, Many, Knights and Ladies have spoken on this topic before. And it remains one of the major reasons that many of us see gold and silver as a way to protect ourselves from the tidal wave of debt that continues to build up and approach, to eventually inundate us with, as yet, unknown financial miseries. Protect ourselves... If you have a talking computer, it's worthwhile time spent, listening. ------Gdome

Aristotle

(12/13/2003; 16:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113402)

Cutting against the grain

Let's say you've got a good ol' family dog that's practically your best friend. Hell, let's face it... if he could pay for rounds of beer while losing to you at golf he WOULD be your best friend. But basically, he's a freeloader, you love him anyway, and that's where it stands.

So how often do you feel the need to announce to the world as you walk around town, "Hey, folks, I am keeping my dog."

You don't say anything of the sort because there's simply no reason to. For the same reason, you don't pass people on the street with the greeting, "Good afternoon! The sun rises in the East!" Rarely do we feel compelled to give voice to a matter of fact. We speak not to waste our breath but to establish a dialog to move parties involved from old ground to new ground.

My point: when a comment is presented as matter-of-fact and should otherwise seem an unnecessary utterance, it is those times when you must take special heed of the superfical calm surface being painted that perhaps things are not the same in the undercurrent.

From today's news:

CAIRO (Reuters) - When asked if Saudi Arabia would consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who was in Cairo for a meeting of ministers from Arab oil exporting nations, said: "No." "Nobody is talking about the euro... As far as I know I have never said anything about the euro," Naimi said, adding that OPEC would not discuss the issue of switching sales to the European currency when the cartel meets on February 10.

Outgoing secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Alvaro Silva, had earlier said producers might debate such a move to counter the dollar's decline.

But Naimi's view on the euro was echoed by other Arab OPEC ministers meeting in Cairo.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar earlier dismissed the idea saying OPEC could not afford to make the move only to find the currency market favoring the dollar again.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

World crude prices rose after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this month said they were targeting a higher price to offset purchasing power lost to the dollar's dive.

"Sell in euros? No, why should I sell in euros? I sell in dollars," Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031213/energy_saudi_1.html

Ari again: Well, that's probably enough of that. See my point?

It's *almost* like he's saying, in other words, "Good afternoon to you, officer. Although you might smell gasoline on my hands, I did not set fire to that building."

Bewware the matter-of-fact denial. The transition is happening all around us.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

(12/13/2003; 17:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113403)

Ari and All. . . .

Great post. I was going to comment on the same article, but hadn't gotten around to it. It's alot easier to move politically in the international environment when the nation states of the world believe you have cause -- unequivocal cause. In the meanwhile, the producers are certainly covering their bases. And the strong surge in gold and euro demand from the ME isnot occuring in a vacuum.

To me, the part of that article about raising the price of oil to compensate for the drop in the dollar's value was the most interesting. This has incredibly important implications for the world economy as well as investment portfolios far and wide. It also echoes themes played to the wild and wooly inflationary 1970s.

What we sometimes forget about an dollar inflationary trend (since we haven't seen its outward manifestations for a long time) is how it compounds and feeds upon itself as it moves through the world economy. As the oil producers raise the dollar price of oil, so the European, Japanese and Chinese exporters must pay more for their oil imports which translates to higher prices for the products they in turn export to the United States. All the while the pumping heart of the world economy sends more inflation outward to the extremities........increasing waves and spirals of monetary energy that return to the center.

I would like to see Alan Greenspan dismiss this rolling phenomena the way he did Chinese currency policies last week. Of course all of this inflation looks like a recovery to the people living in these various countries. It will look like a recovery in the United States too -- and just in time for the election. The penance for these monetary sins will be paid later.

I have likened these past three or four years in various writings, and discussions with friends and clients, to the period 1968 - 1972 (an election year). We had a de jure devaluation of the dollar in 1971 preceded by a monumental attempt to keep the price of gold in check at $35. Similarly we have had a de facto devaluation of the over the past year preceded by a monumental attempt to keep the price of gold in check at the $250 to $350 level. Many of us remember what happened to gold in 1973-74 once the election was over. I'll remind that the price essentially quintupled over the period to the $200 level. 1972, the election year, was a year of gradual increase for gold, followed by the explosion in 1973-74. Whether or not the early 2000's will be a repeat remains to be seen. Let's just say it's setting up in much the same way -- and FOR THE SAME POLITICAL / ECONOMIC REASONS. Who was it that said if history doesn't repeat, it at least rhymes.

2004 could be the year before the explosion. We have thus far been listening to the tantalizing strains of the prelude only......And the latest off-hand warning by OPEC rings a familiar strain.

Aside:

Do I have that about right, CB2?? I seem to remember a conversation recently where we both predicted statements like the one just made by OPEC. I believe what you said to me is that they will find that they have no choice but let the price of oil run. Russia of course has been more direct in its allegiances -- with reasons of its own (as you pointed out as well).

Goldilox

(12/13/2003; 17:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113404)

Saudi/ Euro article

@ Ari and MK:

Another instance of the best confirmation of government policy comes in the form of their denial. File it with Snow's "wind up" toy statements. . . pull the string in his neck and he says "Strong dollar ...strong dollar".

Goldilox

(12/13/2003; 18:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113405)

Mark Twain

history doesn't repeat - it rhymes.
the best confirmation of government policy is their outright denial of the same.

I think both statements have been attributed to Mr. Clemens

(12/13/2003; 18:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113406)

It rhymes. . .

That sounds about right. It was Twain. Thanks.

steady

(12/13/2003; 18:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113407)

shrinking supply .... kiss gold under 400 good bye!

as teh chinese market matures with time the bredth and depth of the market will improve, as right now the new players are bound within to narrow ofa trading range time and space have to pass so that all price levles can be accesed by traders..
rember how tehy you to have 1/4 1/8 1/64 on shares some say for commision but i also think so that shares at all price levels where issued to make the graph /chart stong, well in gold there is none of that but in gram trading there is.00001 or .003 or .004 thats why every ounce everygram of gold will be squeezed from one hand to another, imagine if some one a trader gets hot thitting every high tick and evry low tick accumulating 100 of grams at a time, and placing that gold stashed away think of how many individuals may try there hand at it, and think iof the gold to be traded gained lost it could be huge especially if there is a shortage , and some hot shot traders leant the 43-1 trading ratio. then bing more gold off take, as trades happemn the bank gets its cut and more gold is off taken more action causing an ever increasing in price with less physical left to satisfy the speculator/ the gamble/ the addict/ vs the establishment the central banks, ecoites, and those just now rediscovering the long dormate understanding of gold silver ratios and true value/ absolute value.

got gold?

(12/13/2003; 18:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113409)

Goldilox

If Twain were alive today, I suspect he would have been a gold owner. He seems to have a familiar personality and he was quintessentially American. I have talked to many like him in my years as a gold broker, maybe that's why he seems familiar. Let me put it this, with his cynical frame of reference (which he turned into humor), if he were alive today, I wouldn't be surprised to discover he was a gold owner.

Talk about rank speculation......phew.......

Waverider

(12/13/2003; 18:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113410)

Oil: P&F

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$WTIC,PHTA[PA][DD][F!3!!]⪯f=GI'll post this in light of the discussion of the POO and yesterday's close at $33.00. This is an interesting P&F chart of oil which shows an Alert Quadruple Top breakout. I can't even find the quadruple top breakout pattern in my texts, but judging from the width of it's base I get a PO of $39.00. Gandalf or Socrates...thoughts...please and TIA (I'm quite new to P&F).

Waverider

Gandalf the White

(12/13/2003; 19:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113411)

NICE POO Chart, Lady Waverider !!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$WTIC,PHTA[PA][DD][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe Price Objective of this QUAD Top Breakout is ONLY $42.
A NEW HIGH !!!
<;-)

R Powell

(12/13/2003; 19:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113412)

Oil for Euros...or dollars for Euros...?

Some thoughts if I may although I'm far from knowledgeable on currency matters so feel free to correct me. I'm merely trying to learn.

What would the oil producers gain by stating, implying or insisting that their oil must be purchased in Euro's when they (and any other holders of dollars) can exchange dollars (or any other currency) into Euros (or any other currency or gold) at any time?

If, indeed, they perceive the value or purchasing power of the dollar as declining, they can "spend" these as quickly as they accumulate them for another currency or any of a number of tangible assets. Perhaps this is already being done? The price of oil can be changed daily to reflect the declining dollar but, once the oil for dollars exchange is completed, the dollars can be immediately dishoarded.

As Michael has just opined, currency appreciation or depreciation tends to perpetuate itself, often as the "effect" is passed along (magnified?) with the money itself. Could the dumping of dollars have started some years ago? (the dollar index peaked at about 120. It is currently under 90).

What would be gained, other than irritating the **#&%% out of dollar supporters, by a public acknowledgement that OPEC would rather hold Euros than dollars. Dollars can be exchanged around the clock. The relative strength of the dollar against any currency is in constant flux but an immediate exchange would seem to rid the holder of further depreciation, no?

As I write this it occurs to me that this might eventual reach a point where fewer and fewer want to hold the dollars. Will this be a cause to initiate the amount of dollars held outside the USA to decrease and for them to be somehow returned for redemption? Will we then see the return of "Big Float"? I believe the Chinese are spending dollars as fast as they earn them, but they're not exchanging them for debt instruments, they're buying big ticket items (from Boeing, etc.) and lots of less expensive items like copper and soybeans, but these they are buying in huge quantities. This helps the balance of trade but does not help the USA to export of inflation.

Might the dishoarding of dollars have already begun with the appreciating Euro and depreciating dollar as the result. If so, is not the end result the same, oil for Euros or oil for dollars which are immediately exchanged for Euros?
Happy weekend
Rich

Gandalf the White

(12/13/2003; 19:31:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113413)

HERE is the POG P&F chart also ! BEAUTIFUL !!!!!!

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GANOTHER little GREEN "X" !
TO THE MOON !!!
<;-)

specie-man

(12/13/2003; 20:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113414)

Oil for Euros

Maybe the OPEC countries are talking up the dollar because they still have significant quantities of dollars to unload. Once they've dishoarded themselves of dollars, then look out.

21mabry

(12/13/2003; 20:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113415)

Economics

I had a discussion today with an econ Prof. about the rising gold and commodity prices and the impact of china upon these commodities.He stated he knew nothing about this subject.I asked about the falling dollar and rising euro he stated he did not really know about this subject other than it made europe less desirable to vaction in.We were studyingthe concept of utils of satisfaction one day in class.I asked how do you determine a util,I was told there is know util meter and that in our problem it was already given.That just sounded like voodoo gibberish to me,once again I learn more about economics here than in the institute of higher learning.21

R Powell

(12/13/2003; 21:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113416)

specie-man // dollar dishoarding

Yes, that's most likely true. These events take quite a while to unfold, don't they.
I'd love to have the problem of having to unload a large quantity of dollars. I'd do it quickly. It wouldn't take much to secure my own (family) needs and, with no further need to search for the Yankee dollar, I'd take care of some homeless folks who are still willing to work some. A large farm where one could contribute in some way in return for three squares and a roof over one's head. No drugs or booze allowed. This wouldn't help (or suit) everyone and would exclude many but I'll bet I'd find enough.
My dad once told me that closing down the "poor farms" left many homeless. He also used to say that social security was never designed to completely support retired folks. I guess that's true especially with what so many today consider "necessities".
But whatever your retirement plans happen to be, I'd suggest NOT storing wealth in dollars for those golden years.
Rich

Skydog

(12/13/2003; 21:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113417)

@misetich...your msg#: 113398)

http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=40480Is this the US $ train wreck you were talking about?

Ten Bears

(12/13/2003; 21:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113418)

A few snips from a very good read from Dave Lewis @ Chos-onomics.

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm

"the map is not the territory."

"Yesterday's speech from Greenspan, Capitalism and the role globalization, provides further evidence of map and territory confusion, i.e. being trapped in a rhetorical prison."

"After all, one of the more glaring examples of map and territory confusion can be seen in fiat money. Fiat money is the map which should never be confused with the territory of goods to which it refers. Real capital controls then are controls on the movement of Gold, not the paper currency du jour."

Liberty Head

(12/13/2003; 21:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113419)

RE; R Powell, Oil For Euros?

Rich,

You raise some interesting points to consider. I agree with your logic, however, I think the issue is more complex.
As you mentioned, currencies can be exchanged quickly, so why should OPEC care?
Here are some more questions:
Why should Dollarland, Rupleland,Yuanland or Euroland care what currency is favored by OPEC?
How can OPEC work the complex, ever changing dynamics to their best advantage?
Who will be the enforcer?
I don't know the answers, however, I have a hunch that gold will be the ultimate survivor on Confidence Island.

Best Wishes

Aristotle

(12/13/2003; 22:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113420)

Liberty Head, R Powell, on exchanges and "why should we care?"...

It's about as subtle as the player initiating the "bid" versus the "ask" price, and furthermore on the GROSS amount rather than the NET amount.

Are we seeing eye to eye now, gentlemen?

Boys, girls, everyone... if you go to sleep tonight with only ONE thought in your head, let it be this: the world changes on the MARGIN.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle

(12/13/2003; 22:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113421)

And where subtleties count....

I should have end-for-ended that first part and said initiating a trade at the "ask" versus "bid" price. But hey, it all comes out in the wash, and y'all know what I meant.

G. GYS. --- A

Goldilox

(12/13/2003; 22:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113422)

Mark Twain

@ MK, Rich

Actually, I lived in Virginia City, NV during the late 90's and found out it was one of Clemen's hangouts when he wanted to get away from SF (prior to his NYC years). As it is a big silver town, I think he probably was a silver bug, or else he just enjoyed the company of drunken, rowdy miners.

(:>) Goldilox

Strad Master

(12/14/2003; 01:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113423)

To Boilermaker and Co(Bra)too - Further Thoughts on Stradivarius

Thanks, for the kind posts. The violin is an amazing instrument. I think I can safely say it has had more lore and passion attatched to it than any other type of instrument.
Boilermaker - you must have had a wonderful time growing up with all that music in your house. My Mom was a professional violinist who played with the Los Angeles Philharmonic for 33 years. Consequently, I played concerts up until about two weeks BEFORE I was born.
Co(Bra)too - My Strad is a particularly fine example of his later period instruments. It is from 1728 and is known as the ex-Artot ex-Alard. Both Artot and Alard were very famous violinsts of the 19th century There is a fascinating novel, that you may still be able to get if you look hard enough, called "The Violin Hunter". It is the true story of a fellow named Tarisio who worked for the famous French violin maker Vuillaume. Tarisio scoured Italy in the early and mid 1800's to find all the great instruments that, by then, were about 100 years old. Most of them had been kept in excellent condition but had fallen out of favor since they were so "old". Tarisio would offer the owners of these instruments nice, bright, shiny new French violins in trade and then take all the Amatis, Stradivaris. Guarnieris, Montagnanas, and Bergonzis back to Paris where Vuillaume replaced the old short necks, with his more modern ones, replaced the bass bars and sound posts with larger ones and heightened the bridges. All these innovations put a lot more tension on the instrument which allowed them to have a much greater carrying power. Vuillaume then sold them to all the greatest violinists of the time. Vuillaume is, essentially, the inventor of the modern violin, since before him even the greatest instruments had itty-bitty wheezy sounds - the kind you hear on those "Period Instrument" recordings that are all the rage today. Nowadays, no reputable violin maker woul put a fine instrument back into "Period" condition so most of the instruments that people play in those recordings are either newly made or old, third-rate instruments that nobody really cares about. But I digress... Alard was Vuillaume's son-in-law so he had the "pick of the litter" whenever any new violins showed up in the shop via Tarisio. So, my violin - having belonged to Alard - must have always been considered a particularly fine one since Alard could have had any he wanted. For a long time I also played with a bow made in the Vuillaume shop and I often wondered if the violin and bow had encountered one another a hundred and fifty or so years earlier. It's fun to imagine. My Strad is worth way more than my house and all that's in it (including any gold) but the tax man makes it extraordinarily difficult to sell since I'd have to give away a huge percentage. Most people whow do sell their instruments do so in Europe or Japan and then take their payment in gold or jewels that they can then sell quietly back in the states. Nevertheless, selling it would be somewhat risky if one wanted to avoid giving most of the proceeds to Uncle Sam. Anyway, I hope that helps to further clarify some Strad lore.

Dollar Bill

(12/14/2003; 02:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113424)

*>*

Strad Master, interesting read.
I read, in what I am going to guess was Discover magazine, about some research that lead one to believe that (many/all?) Strads were made from wood that had been soaking in the M. sea. Salt soaked into the wood is reason for the sound (?).

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(12/14/2003; 03:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113425)

@R Powell Euros, Dollars etc

"...when they (and any other holders of dollars) can exchange dollars (or any other currency) into Euros (or any other currency or gold) at any time?"

I suspect this is actually part of the problem. They just cannot exchange their dollars for Euros at any time. If they were to move just 10% of their $ into Euros in a single day, there would be some instability in the FX markets to the the detriment of the USD. So they have to play bluff, encourage stability and controlled unloading of the green paper.

While this is going on, their most important strategy surely must be to stop, or at least reduce the accumulation of further green paper. This they can achieve by selling their product for Euros.

One other way they can reduce there USD exposure is to start to aggresively acquire $-denominated assets - DAEWOO, GM etc. Basically, any entity that is on the brink.

Caradoc

(12/14/2003; 03:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113426)

News: Saddam captured

Just announced as of 0230 Pacific. Might help the US dollar for about 24 hours before it continues its slide into oblivion.

Caradoc

steady

(12/14/2003; 04:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113427)

universe

http://wires.news.com.au/special/mm/030811-hubble.htm well i got my video back from my trip to uranus and well i just have to share it with gold bugs the world over

Operative

(12/14/2003; 04:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113428)

@ Caradoc: confirmation on your post

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/031214/1/3gnem.htmlBremer confirms Saddam capture to Governing Council: BBC

Truthcaster

(12/14/2003; 06:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113429)

Dollar/Gold &Saddam

Now that the U.S. has Saddam what happens to the
markets. First thoughts are that the Dollar will raise
and gold will take a hit for awile not saying what
the dow/nas will do on this news.. Any thoughts on
this from the wise ones of the kingdom..

goldquest

(12/14/2003; 08:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113430)

Dollar Gold & Saddam

Yep! Market surge tomorrow, gold bashing and dollar climb.
Should last all of two days!

Skydog

(12/14/2003; 08:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113431)

Now that Saddam is in friendly hands....

http://oil.comand OPEC is touting no shortage of oil, what will happen to the price of "Black Gold" tomorrow?

DummyANI

(12/14/2003; 09:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113432)

Capture of Saddam is a Trojan horse.

Capture of Saddam cannot improve US triple deficits at all.

Capture of Saddam cannot abolish a Patriot act 2, so no foreign assets return to USA.

Barrick is keeping 28 million ounce short positions in COMEX, and astronomical margin calls are killing Barrick and JPM shorters.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Econoclast

(12/14/2003; 09:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113433)

21Mabry...

Saw your post yesterday about discussion with econ professor. I (since my eyes have been opened) have always been amazed that even though I majored in economics at a top university, I spent a TOTAL of one hour, in one class, one day, discussing the effect of monetary policy on the economy! That fact alone could lead one to become a "conspiracy theorist" in my opinion.
Is it intentional, or just the wave of progression (regression) in our society where the workings of the whole has become too large, complex, and unaccountable to the individual. To the point that intelligent human beings aren't even able to discern reality or the truth anymore?
Just a rhetorical question. I hope to know the answer absolutely one day, even though I may be sorry for what I wish for, in that the circumstances that provide that answer may be difficult ones for us all.

Everyone:
In the meantime (to lighten up), have a golden day,
and take this last opportunity which MAY stay open through the election to accumulate your golden lifeboat for whatever may come in the future.

CoBra(too)

(12/14/2003; 09:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113434)

Whither Saddam ...

And yes, MK, I'm absolutely with you there.

Meantime I'm wondering about the effects of Saddam's capture. A wonderous, if not magical timing, playing right into the hands of the hedonists.

And, Yes it may be the topic - even for the markets - for a day or two, though what has changed in reality? Reality - has been changed in hedonistic statitics for too long as to make any "real impact".

The whole chimera - wanted to use "chuzpa" - seems designed to stave of the unevitable end of today's fiat system for a little longer. That may be true, and who in heck cares, as the endgame is clearly written on the wall.

I'm astounded as to the resource of the hedonists to keep up mass delusions for that long. A major feat, despite the obstacles they've been facing and overcoming for so (some would say "too" long)!

... and that may be, where their Achilles' fault is to be found. Overindulgence in the same tactics, working for so long ... until, the end. The end, where proven tactics prove to be - obsolete!

Got reality - got Gold? cb2

physicalman

(12/14/2003; 09:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113435)

SADDAM;'S CAPTURE; MARKET RACTION

Live small, save large and pass through the few remaining windows of opportunity.

physicalman

(12/14/2003; 09:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113436)

reaction

sorry for spelling error

misetich

(12/14/2003; 09:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113437)

Car bomb kills 17, wounds 30 policemen in western Iraq

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1504&ncid=1504&e=2&u=/afp/20031214/ts_afp/iraq_police_blast_031214092238Snip:

KHALDIYAH, Iraq (AFP) - A car bomb killed 17 policemen and wounded 30 more at a police station in western Iraq (news - web sites), police lieutenant Faiz Mohammad Motab and witnesses said.
*********************
Misetich

Saddam has been captured - good riddance

Will his capture change anything in Iraq? If the today's headline -see link above- is any indication his capture will have little effect.

Politically Saddam's capture will be played up - however - the fierce resistance against US occupation that we have witnessed in the last several months will probably continue.

Iraq Civil War

Various factions are battling one another for a variety of reasons - and the friction between these tribal leaders will continue

Ultimately a civil war may insue - with the US and its coalition of the willing right in the middle of it

Iraq still remains a quagmiere for the US - as the majority of Iraqis have not acclaimed the US as the Liberators the US had hoped for

Thousands of innocent civiliations have been killed during the US led invasion of Iraq. The official count has been ascertained and US ordered a cease to the poll it was annouced earlier this past week

These innocent civilizians have left family members, friends with hardened feelings toward the US occupation - and the sugar and candy routine will not be trusted or forgiven

In a nutshell - after the initial euphoria which undoubtedly will be played up for political reasons by the current US administration - the after shock - may be harder than many expect

The economic consequences of a continued Iraqi resistance AFTER the announced capture of Saddam will undoubtedly hit the US $ as the reconstruction costs of Iraq spiral out of control

US taxpayers are being taken out to the cleaners as billions of $ are being squandered and misdirected

...and many more billions will be required ahead

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the White

(12/14/2003; 10:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113438)

ATTN: ALL LURKERS and newbies !!! Did you see this ? <;-)

SIR M. K. is sending out early Christmas presents !
Just take a TRIP into the "Archives" to 12/11/03 -- Message # 113264 and see the "RULES" to receive your PRESENT !
---
MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
---
You will be richly rewarded for your effort !
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(12/14/2003; 10:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113439)

If only...

http://www.lastoftheindependents.com/chivington.htmlall mass murderers could be brought to justice. (Looks like Nuremberg just wasn't the "deterrent" it ought to have been.)

Some "events" stand out as bumps on the inflected curve (downward? I'm SUCH a Menger/Spenglerian in December ;)

We could start with Chivington, at Sand Creek. November 29, 1864. Another "clash of cultures."

Anyway, this'll be a rally (Dow) to be sold, and a dip (gold) to be bought. Interesting how those dips are shorter and shallower, each and every one of them, these days.

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 10:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113440)

Saddam Capture

@Misetich

How might this affect the situation in Iraq?

During the interview, General Odierno said Saddam was found without any communications gear, including cell phone, and thus was "not likely directing much or any of the current insurgencies. "He was in hiding and acting as if his eventual capture was a foregone conclusion."

IMHO, Saddam has not been directing anything except his own movements to elude capture. His capture may facilitate the "message" in that it removes an underground figurehead, but as you suggested, none of the fundamentals has been altered. The 55,000 families who lost loved ones in the Shock and Awe carpet bombing are not concerned about Saddam. He rose to power in cahoots with the western powers and he fell from grace via the same route. This is not important to millions of people struggling to find clean water, food, and rebuild their lives. When they watch the Army trucks drive away with their resources (oil, gold, cash), they know another puppet is about to lord over them and they need to continue to hone their survival skills.

How does it relate to gold? No one has even questioned what happened to the 2 or 3 trucks of gold captured by the US Army. The Iraqi people are dirt poor. Who's got the gold? No one's talking about that. Spoils of war?

Boilermaker

(12/14/2003; 10:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113441)

Strad Master & CB2

http://physicsweb.org/article/world/13/4/8I never cease to be amazed at the depth of knowledge displayed here (even off topic). Check this website for fascinating violin technology.

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 11:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113442)

Barrick short position on Comex

From DummyANI...

"Barrick is keeping 28 million ounce short positions in COMEX, and astronomical margin calls are killing Barrick and JPM shorters."

I don't doubt that this but wonder about your source. Can you supply a link or the source? Thanks,
Rich

Mr Gresham

(12/14/2003; 11:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113443)

Somebody read this for me -- I have to work today, d***it!

http://www.mises.org/mengerbio.aspI mentioned Carl Menger, and I read only a tantalizing short bio on him, recently, about his mis-read of fiat's staying power during the last two decades of his life. The Depression he anticipated came a decade after his 1921 death.

This article is much more thorough, as is the entire mises.org site. Mises and the others credit him as the originator of the Austrian school of economics. He built upon the classical economics of the early 1800s.

It is likely that Economics will have to return to the roads he traveled if it is to progress at all, and perhaps the hard times ahead will trigger that.

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 11:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113444)

Saddam's capture and tomorrow's POG

Truthcaster has asked....

"Now that the U.S. has Saddam what happens to the
markets. First thoughts are that the Dollar will raise
and gold will take a hit for awile not saying what
the dow/nas will do on this news.. Any thoughts on
this from the wise ones of the kingdom.."

How the markets react is always questionable but my first thoughts are the same as yours. If you believe that the POG is in a long term bull market which may last for many years then aren't the downturns buying opportunities? We may also get a good look at exactly how much support exists under the current price levels.

Gold has it's own special qualities but is also traded as a commodity and, as such, is one of many benefiting now from the weakening dollar. I've been amazed at the particular circumstances influencing different items in the CRB that are all price positive. I'm amazed that these events seem to be unfolding at the same time for so many different items to strengthen the investment move into commodities. All the grains have their own supply/demand elements as do metals as do the softs, but it's hard to find anything that doesn't have higher price factors in play. Silver, sugar and coffee are three that haven't yet joined the party but I see somewhat near term explosive upward moves for all. The price of sugar may be influenced by, of all things, shipping charges. Unfortunately, increased by-product silver production may or may not delay any anticipated silver shortage for yet another year. This will depend on how much industrial silver use has also increased. But on gold I have no doubt. Imho, downtrends are buying opportunities.
Thoughts? Now it's time to watch some football!
Rich

mikal

(12/14/2003; 11:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113445)

Gold to attract safe-haven avalanche

In the miasma of world news events selected by high finance, everyone has the opportunity to make of themselves a fool. I myself have done this and now, by predicting a short-term movement, a random parlay. Select from one or more of the following or one of the many others available in cyberspace or soon to come:

1) Saddam Hussein's visage frightens worldwide audiences towards more conservative, safe-haven, real investment instruments
2) Terrorism resumes and escalates at the sight of Saddam Hussein alive in US custody, or dead from suicide
3) Dow, Nikkei, Dax, etc rise briefly on the news of Saddam's capture while
4) Gold rises as dollar is stealthly distributed behind the distraction of Saddam
5) Gold rises as fears of terrorism and political instability are strengthened after the non-event of the "big" capture and US credibility and $ investments falter

Ten Bears

(12/14/2003; 11:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113446)

symbolism . (OT)

Soldiers, active duty or retired, like to see the end of wars. Let us hope the symbolism of seeing the old and defeated tyrant dragged from his hole will bring about an end of war, death, and destruction in that region and bring about a spirit of reconciliation.

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 12:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113447)

Mr Gresham

Let us not forget who made "the tyrant" in LARGE measure. There is always an, "enabler", yes?

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 12:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113448)

Saddam Hussein influencing metals and equities markets...?

Senor Hussein, a brutal dictator and murderer, is simply Another Manuel Noriega with really bad timing--also in the wrong part of the world. "At the end of the day", this foul beast possessed NO WMD, had NO part in attacking the US and NO plans to attack the US or her proxy, Israel. Good riddance but, the Thought of his capture having any effect on metals or equities markets is patently absurd.

Mr Gresham

(12/14/2003; 12:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113449)

Predictions

C.M. -- yes, we wouldn't be the World Power if just about everything that went on wasn't part of one of our scenarios(and the intelligence agencies wouldn't be doing THEIR jobs) -- just about ANY dictator who is in is at least staying out of our sights, if not following our script.

Markets will do what -- what the players think the other players think the -- markets will do...

And with a significant number of players believing that the markets are manipulated by fiat liquidity, they will guess tomorrow that the scenario calls for an Up day. And so...Voila!

To get far from the maddeningly derivative crowd:

GOLD -- an anchor of integrity in a sea of sham.

specie-man

(12/14/2003; 13:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113450)

Saddam Hussein

What a deplorable in-human being. I would like to say "good riddance" as well. But that may be a bit premature. After all, he isn't actually dead yet. And although he doesn't have the mind of a genius, he may still have some tricks up his sleeve. He may already have plans in place. I can think of a couple things he could easily do to disrupt things... - I'd better not say as it might give the bad people ideas.

I hope the coalition forces continue to prceed with extreme caution.

PS:
I exect the dollar to go up and metals to go down on Monday and maybe Tuesday as well. However, this development does not change the long-term core market fundamentals (overwhelming debt and deficits everywhere).

White Rose

(12/14/2003; 14:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113451)

Financial Assets in a Financial Storm

Financial Assets in a Financial Storm

We all expect a large financial event to hit sometime between 5
minutes from now to 3 years from now. We all know the scenario: the dollar
plunges, stocks and bonds are sold, precious metals go up. That is the
easy part.

But there is so much we want to know:

Should I buy raw metal now, or buy mining stocks?
When do I cash in my silver?
What are the right financial instruments to use, and when do I switch?

We all want a guide to tell us what will happen on a day by day basis
as a massive financial crisis unfolds. No such guidebook exists. I submit
that the rules and regulations that affect different financial instruments
will massively affect to play this game. I will guess how the rules may
change and how someone could cope with these changes. This is my chance to
be a "warped Suzie Orman".

Possible Rule Changes

Bank Accounts: Accounts may be frozen (as in Argentina). Only modest
withdrawals allowed. It is possible that transfers are only allowed for
particular purposes, such as paying a mortgage, paying down credit cards,
or other approved purposes. Protection: buy precious metals, stocks, real
estate, or withdraw as cash now before the crisis hits. Protection: buy
precious metals now. Divide your accounts to a number of local banks,
making sure you have an ATM card for each account so you can milk them for
cash before a crisis, and you can withdraw the maximum (so many dollars
per month per account) once an emergency starts

Cash: Limits to cash holdings may be made more severe. I notice how
hard they are going after Rush Limbaugh for making over thirty $8,000 cash
withdrawals. This shows that they will be very strict in enforcing limits
to cash in the future. Protection: withdrawn now. Buy precious metals.
[don't keep cash in your house, bury cash in carefully sealed sections of
plastic pipes in your backyard. It you do not have a backyard, you are
living in the wrong neighborhood for a crisis.]

Municipal bonds: no need to do anything, many units of government
will go bankrupt, eliminating the value of these assets without any need
for additional governmental intervention. Protection: tricky, since there
are large haircuts for sales of these bonds now. At minimum, watch these
holdings carefully.

Treasury bonds: it is no surprise that in a financial crisis, the
stated and effective interest rates are going way up. I suspect that those
holding treasury bonds will only get a fraction of their expected value in
the long run. Protection: get out of long bonds. If you need something,
use short term treasury notes.

GSE bonds: if interest rates go up along with precious metals, then
the gold derivatives held by the GSEs will blow up in their faces. I would
expect the federal government would end up taking over the GSEs and
offering treasury bonds with poor terms as a substitute. Avoid these
bonds.

Pension Plans: The federal government may only allow sales of assets
to buy treasury bonds. (This would "promote stability in the markets").
Protection: not much is possible. Use gold funds to the extent you can
right now. Do not transfer non-pension assets into pension assets no
matter how much the financial media tells you this is a good idea.

Stocks: beware. In a real emergency, I would expect a large number of
companies to go bankrupt. This is a wonderful way of transferring assets
to the inner players. I would also expect lots of brokerage houses to go
bankrupt, making it difficult to get your hands on your shares. Expect to
get paid in treasury bonds after a three year delay. Protection: use
precious metals stocks. While it limits active trading, get your hands on
the stock certificates for the bulk of your holdings. Put those
certificates in a safe deposit box.

Safe Deposit Boxes: do not keep cash or precious metals in a safe
deposit box. That is what your backyard is for. Use them for stock
certificates and other critical papers you do not want to lose in a house
fire. Ask yourself: "Is this item something I would not mind having an IRS
agent see?" before you put it in your safe deposit box. [In 1933, it was
illegal to open your safe deposit box without an IRS agent check its
contents. Then they were looking for gold. Soon, I think they would look
for cash, gold would be a bonus.]

Precious metals: There are many ways regulations can deeply hamper
the marketplace for precious metals without resorting to outright
confiscation. I think the powers that be would be more interested in
preventing the middle class from shifting assets into precious metals than
they would be in forcing the wealthy from giving up their possessions.
Protection: buy precious metals now.

Commodity exchanges: these are rigged from the get-go. I would expect
those who are long would be required to accept a modest dollar pay out
from those who are short. Buy the real thing and avoid commodity
exchanges.

Real estate: with interest rates going up, those with marginal
financial situations and variable mortgages are screwed. Far fewer people
can afford houses with unemployment and higher interest rates. Even though
the dollar will be inflating, housing will drop in value as a huge amount
of stock will enter the market with few buyers. The really pricey houses
(now a million or more) will be hurt the most. Protection: limit your
exposure the real estate debt. Only have a mortgage on your own house. If
you have a daisy chain of rental houses, get out now, even if you have to
take a loss. If possible build up other assets to potentially exceed your
mortgage in a financial crisis.

Credit Cards: there is a lot of ways credit cards could be tinkered
with in a financial emergency. The goal would be to avoid the use of cash
in any transaction. I expect that merchant who wanted to retain credit
cards would have to certify they pay virtually none of their bills with
cash. Credit cards could be made into hybrid debit cards, with automatic
payments based from your bank accounts. There would be no cash advances,
and no international transactions. Since I would expect employers would be
required to make automatic transfers into bank accounts, which in turn
would automatically pay down credit card balances (and mortgage balances),
and the credit cards would only be allowed for authorized merchants. Thus
the financial brotherhood/federal government would totally control all
aspects of the financial life of the average citizen. Protection: have
multiple credit cards with zero balances at the end of the month. Develop
frugal living habits. Get in the habit of storing food and other
necessities rather than depend on a federal feeding trough.

Insurance policies: I would expect that many, many insurance
companies would go bankrupt in a financial emergency. These fast
reservoirs of capital will be sucked dry by the financial vampires.
Protection: elist your neighbors and others to work together to keep your
community going in an emergency. Mentally prepare yourself for not
depending on any corporation no matter what promises they make in their TV
commercials.

Employment: expect severe penalties for being part of the cash
"underground economy". Jobs will be hard to find. Good luck.

Debt: avoid debt. While it may seem easy to pay off debt with
inflating dollars, the asset you are buying may be dropping in value. You
also need a stream of income to make the payments which may make it hard
to make regular payments. Expect the penalty of missed payments to be
severe.

Inflation: the economy will learn to live with hyperinflation. By
keeping most transactions electronic, America will avoid the expense of
printing new money all the time with more zeros on them (a reference
Germany's post World War I hyperinflation). The tale is told of a bellboy
who got a tip of a gold coin (presumably a quarter ounce coin, such as is
sold by our hosts). Later, during the hyperinflation, he bought the hotel
with the same coin. Some sectors (manufacturing, farming) do well under
inflation. Other sectors (finance and the assets of the middle class) will
be wiped out.

Model Asset Allocation

3% cash
12% bank accounts (but do not exceed $100,000)
30% gold in your possession
15% other precious metals in your possession
20% precious metals stock (if you are a high asset indivdual, you
might shift some from physical to stocks)
20% other assets you need to conduct your life without looking like a
survivalist.

I welcome comments. I wonder what Suzie Orman would say if she were free to
comment on the current situation.

misetich

(12/14/2003; 14:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113452)

And You Thought Pension Funds Were Scary

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/business/yourmoney/14watch.htmlSnip:

UNDERFUNDED pension plans rank high on investors' fright lists, but now comes another specter: post-employment health plans. At some major companies, they are in even more dire shape than pensions.

Only an estimated 5 percent of American companies offer such health plans, according to the Labor Department. But many that do, like Ford Motor, I.B.M., and Merck, are large companies whose stocks are widely held by investors.

From the 1950's through the 1970's, a number of industrial companies agreed to pay for their employees' health care after they retired. Now that bill is starting to come due.

And, oh, what a bill it is. Current company estimates for health care costs put their obligations at $284 billion, according to Glass, Lewis & Company, an institutional research firm in San Francisco. It studied 213 large companies offering post-retirement health care coverage.
........................

Among the companies that have underfunded health care obligations in the next five years, Glass, Lewis said, are SBC, Verizon, Boeing, Goodyear, General Motors, Delphi and Ford. Only two in the study - Curtiss-Wright and Procter & Gamble - have overfunded post-employment health plans.

"Either the corporations are going to have to pay it, or the government will, which is the taxpayers,'' Mr. Turner said. "But as the baby boomers go into retirement, many of them are going to be getting a present which is the ugliest piece of coal you ever did see."
********************
Misetich

With the "Old News" of Saddam's reported capture over the way - lets return to our "regularly scheduled jobless economic recovery" programs

...health costs are spiralling through the rooftop as are commodities, energy prices...

General Motors apparently has switched from stocks to high risks junk bonds, foreign bonds to maintain their lofty projected pension plans returns at 9% - along with issuance of debt to avoid taking a hit on current earnings

..desperation moves ..usually backfire

Regarding Saddam's effects on gold - NONE - though a short lived rally in the US $ and SM can be anticipated for max a couple of days if not an upsurge tomorrow morning and a reversal later on the day....

Those investors that defy the laws of current trends will pay for it dearly

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 14:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113453)

Another "dark and painful era"

Hours later, when President Bush addressed the nation, he declared that "a dark and painful era is over."

Car Bomb West of Baghdad Kills at Least 17
By EDWARD WONG

Published: December 14, 2003

HALDIYA, Iraq, Dec. 14 � Just 12 hours after Saddam Hussein was captured, a car bomb exploded outside the police station in this town 60 miles west of Baghdad, and military officials said at least 17 people were killed and 33 wounded. It was the deadliest attack on American-led forces since two police stations near Baghdad were hit with car bombs three weeks ago.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/14/2003; 15:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113454)

Wednesday, December 17th, mid-day order deadline to ensure delivery for Christmas!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Stumped?
This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold.
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And....Order it Online!

Avoid the holiday rush.
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of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and
put the Ho! Ho! Ho! back in your Holiday Season.

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Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and
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as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!

Omega gold jewelry

Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 15:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113455)

Post Employment Health Care

@ Misetich:

Richard Daughty opined this as the main motivation behind the Medicare drug bill in last week's article. From a personal perspective, I was laid off about 16 months ago and given 18 months of "Cobra" eligibility through my previous employer's plan. Unfortunately, the company went belly-up, dropping coverage for remaining employees. Once that occured, the Cobra was disconued by the insurance company, as they only have to cover ex-employees as long as they continue covering "current" employees. This was in California, so I don't know how it works in other states.

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 15:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113456)

Suze Orman

@ White Rose:

Or perhaps, an "unwarped" Suze Orman. Her onscreen advice does more to keep the common family in debt than Target's 10% discount for new cardholders.

GoldCoaster

(12/14/2003; 16:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113457)

POG

I dont know if the POG at the other side is working 'cause I got 404.35 on my screen at the moment ,a drop of 4.60 from the opening.

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 16:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113458)

The Saddam in captivity rally has begun...

S+P up about 13.00 on globex.
POG down $4-5.00
Catch the bottom to buy gold and catch the top to short the S+P? The former is a high percentage bet, the latter is awful risky. Is the Dow index anticipating price inflation?
Hey, a buying opportunity just in time for Christmas!

Truthcaster

(12/14/2003; 17:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113459)

Run Spot RUN!!!

Run Spot!! They want your golden head.
Down 6$ 402.50

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 17:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113460)

SADDAM RALLY TO COINCIDE WITH SANTA CLAUS RALLY

For shame on the "financial advisor" crowdI can't wait to take their money. I love this game.

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 17:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113461)

Saddam rally continues

Gold -6.90
Silver -12.0
Crude -1.07
Euro -0.95
S+P + 15.70
Nasdoggie +30.00

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 17:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113462)

@R Powell

He was a real man that Saddam. He had no help, no protection; just a pistol and living on the run in a dirt hole. Probablty crapped in his brithches. Yep, that's a real victory for the good guys alright. I will sleep soundly tonight. The world is now safe for freedom. Wish we had more here....sadly...CM

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 17:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113463)

He looks like a bum in need of a baloney sandwhich......

$750K in USD and NO Gold......what a nut!"When you see pictures of the disheveled, heavily-bearded Hussein immediately after he'd been dragged out his hiding place which one news report described a "spider hole, six-to-eight feet deep, equipped with a rudimentary ventilation system and camouflaged with bricks and dirt," you have to wonder what sort of military campaign he could have been running from somewhere like that. Certainly not a well-organized insurgency on the scale we've seen recently in Iraq."

Move over Manuel Noriega..

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 17:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113464)

I'll probably get "scrubbed"...

but does anyone else feel like they're living a part in a Woody Allen movie?

goldquest

(12/14/2003; 17:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113465)

Don't Forget

the $750,000 in greenbacks! Probably his beer money when he got relocated to Oklahoma City! Shoulda swapped those worthless greenbacks for gold eagles.

admin

(12/14/2003; 18:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113466)

Free Forum Discussion

Given the situation with the capture of Saddam Hussein, we've decided to open the forum to political discussion until 12 noon tomorrow. The rules still apply with respect to ad hominem and venomous attacks on fellow posters, and we will pull codes if it is violated. We've done this sort of thing with mixed results in the past. Let's not make this an experience that undermines the potential for any future episodes of free political discussion. We will still pull posts that we feel go beyond the pale.

Let the discussion begin. . . .

Cavan Man

(12/14/2003; 18:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113467)

Thanks admin...

good call....I'm out of sarcasm and cynicism for tonight. Going for a soda...CM

The Stranger

(12/14/2003; 18:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113468)

Truthcaster's Query

That man hiding in a rat hole near Tikrit was never the thinking man's rationale for owning gold. The growing demand for precious metals is happening because the calculus for a stable dollar isn't there anymore, and it won't be for some time to come.

Remember, the seeds for every major market move are sown by the move preceding. In this case, confidence in the dollar led to overvaluation, which led to a deficit in America's balance of trade, which led to a decline in American manufacturing, which led to a relative loss of tax revenue to the federal government, which led to a half-trillion dollar budget deficit. America's democratically elected government can either:

A) Raise taxes, (and get thrown out of office), or
B) Stop payment on the national debt, (and get thrown out of office), or
C) Create more dollars at the printing press, (and worry about the consequences later).

What do you think they will do?

Meanwhile, every so often, the gold market is given the opportunity to demonstrate that the rationale for owning gold in this decade goes way beyond concerns about current political or military instability. One such opportunity was Jan. 1, 2000 (when the world didn't come to an end). Another was the invasion of Iraq (when, again, the world didn't come to an end). Both events were followed a swoon in gold prices which proved nothing less than an outstanding buying opportunity for the well-informed investor.

The current instance is only different in that it may be even more useful for all of us who own gold. That is because, with Saddam now gone, a brief setback for gold, no matter how scarey it might seem, followed by the inevitable recovery, will inoculate us against further such events in the weeks and months ahead. In short, there will be little left to happen which can scare us.

For this reason, I would expect any decline in the gold price, as a result of the Hussein capture, to be shorter almost than you can imagine.

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 18:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113469)

Cavan Man

I understand what you said in post 113462 but I do NOT understand why you addressed that to me?

I've said nothing whatsoever about Saddam other than to opine that his capture will probably cause the equity markets and the dollar to rally. The price of precious metals will probably fall. I view this as a temporary event.

This is my opinion of how the markets will react to his capture. I'm talking pragmatic market reactions ONLY !!
No political view whatsoever. No ethical judgement of anyone or any event, just the markets' knee-jerk reaction.
Rich

R Powell

(12/14/2003; 18:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113470)

Hello Stranger

Stranger, good to hear from you again!

I'm glad you mentioned timing which is the hardest part of the game. I usually invest long term on fundamentals but, since a downturn in the POG was to be expected soon anyway, and I had decided to buy on the next downturn, well....

Just how short a timeframe do you envision for gold's downturn?

I was thinking maybe not more than a day or two but I've never been good at all with the timing bugaboo. I know no one can predict such things but I'd enjoy hearing your thoughts on this and the markets in general.
TIA
Rich

Tate

(12/14/2003; 18:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113471)

Saddam Hussein capture will fix US

Saddam Hussein capture will fix US:

trade deficit
current account deficit
bring manufacturing sector back
solve unemployment
make US corporations profitable
erase Wall-Street overvaluation
stop foreigners dumping US Dollar
make Sun rise in the east and go down in the West

Anybody can add more??

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 18:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113472)

Tonight's movie lineup

The programmers must be working overtime. Tonight's lineup includes Demolition Man w/ Stallone, Snipes, and Bullock

"Oh John Spartan, civilization as we know it will come to end.
What'll we do?"

and Swordfish w/ Travolta and Berry

"They bomb a church, we bomb ten, they kill a few tourists, we take out a city. What self-respecting country will harbor terrorists when they see our reaction? I will sacrifice anyone, including myself to stop those who threaten our way of life."

Damn, it's great to see the world is a little freer today!

Get your sheckles ready, goldbugs, Santa is reopening the Christmas sales tomorrow! If Sinclair is on target, it's your last chance before $420.

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 18:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113473)

Gold moves in Asian market

So far, it's bounced off of $401 and headed back up. Any buying opportunity may not even remain long enough to service the NY open. After all, how many bullion banks and commodity dealers really give a rat's behind about Saddam?

spotlight

(12/14/2003; 18:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113474)

Saddam is captured. What now?

Saddam is captured. Let the whole world cheer.

What happens now in Iraq is unpredictable. In the long run it is certainly a major plus. Short term we do not know what to expect from the opposing forces there. We can only hope that the road ahead for their people will be smoother than in the past.

As for the financial markets reaction, expectations are, the dollar will rise, gold/stocks will fall. However, one should establish firmly in his mind, Saddam, alive or dead, has no bearing on the fundamentals concerning the US tripple deficits. The deficits are the reason for the fall of the dollar and the rise in the price of gold, as well as other currencies.

Perceptions and emotions rule the markets temporarily when an event such as this occurs. Markets do, however, return to fundamentals quickly, especially when the fundamentals are as clear and strong as they are today.

Lets say an investor in gold stocks decides to sell early Monday morning. He will be in line with all the other sellers. Lets say that there is a large sell off and his $10 stock is executed at $8. The next day it drops 50 cents. The next day it rises $1.00. Most who have sold would wait one more day, just to make sure. The stock rises another $1.50. Now it costs the seller more than he got for the stock he sold to buy back his position. (Including the ask price plus commissions.)

The groups that are short over $100 million, are right now circling like sharks, waiting to be fed. They are very hungry, and ready to gobble up the delicious stocks in your portfolio. They need them badly, so badly they can't live without them. (Gist of a James Sinclair article)

Now, lets look at the positive side. The dollar rises as expected, and gold falls in step with the rise of the dollar. (Gold rose, in step with the fall of the dollar) South African gold stocks are paid in dollars, which they must convert to Rands to meet their costs of production. So. Afr. gold stocks did very badly while the Rand was strenthening, so they are underpriced vs, North American gold stocks. The Rand should therefore weaken if the dollar rises as expected. Also, there is a huge long position in the Rand. The holders of these positions are going to take a very big hit if the dollar rises as expected and may get out and stay out. The highly overvalued Rand could weaken much more than expected. If so, this would be very bullish for the mining stocks. They could continue to rise while gold merely inches its way up. Those are the probablities.

Markets are a different animal. They are, at times, prone to perceptions and emotions. This is, most probably, one of those times. This is the lot of the serious investor.

Personally, I will grin and bear the paper loss, whatever it amounts to, convinced that in the end, the Saddam event will be bullish for gold. How could it be bullish when portfolios could take a 10 15 0r 20 percent loss? (1) We do not know for sure how severe the loss will be. (2) It most probably will be very temporary. (3) The Saddam event will not be a remedy for the broken monetary system with currency devaluations and credit expansion going gung ho. (4) Those who sell may find it very costly to buy back their position.

Also, lets now look at the positive side as far as the world economy is concerned. The world celebrates by buying the stock market and our bonds. Here at home we go on a buying spree.
What are the results of these actions? Yes, the stock and bond markets go up. However, financial instituions world wide know the facts have not really changed. They take advantage of the exuberance by unloading their dollars and bonds while picking up all the gold and gold stocks on the cheap. The shorts, meanwhile have been squaring their positions getting ready to go long the gold and gold stocks.

If on the other hand world growth does kick in, we have another bullish case for gold. Capital will be needed in the hundreds of billions of dollars for all the areas of the world where growth is imminent. This kind of capital is resting in one place in the required amount. US assets. This would be T-bonds and all financial investments in the US.
If foreigners have a choice of where they want to put their capital when growth opportunities arise, they will much prefer to bring their capital home to put it to work. Especially when the rewards could be much greater. The result of this would be a rapidly falling dollar, stock and bond market and sharply rising gold and interest rates markets. We would then be in need of a new monetary sysyem fast, as the hundred trillion dollar derivatives markets threaten to collapse.

Each investor has to make up his mind regarding the amount of risk he can afford to take.
Each has his/her own comfort level. Gold insurance/protection is one thing, but if it affects your peace of mind, maybe you have too much invested. If, for example, you are going to need the money in the near future, you are probably over invested.

Raymond

(12/14/2003; 19:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113475)

Neophyte

As a neophyte I will keep my comments brief.I have followed the Gold Forum for several years. Recently I have been spending more time here as the price of gold rises. I am going to pay closer attention and try to separate the wheat from the chaff. I feel some real money is going to be made in next couple of years and I need to be part of this drama. Tnxs to all .

misetich

(12/14/2003; 19:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113476)

No WMDs in Iraq, says Hussein

http://afr.com/articles/2003/12/15/1071336854100.htmlSnip:

Saddam Hussein has denied he had any weapons of mass destruction and has not been very cooperative since his capture, Time magazine reported quoting a US intelligence official.

"No, of course not," Mr Hussein was quoted as saying about Iraq's alleged weapons programs, "the US dreamed them up itself to have a reason to go to war with us".

Time said in extracts of a report to be released in its latest edition tomorrow
...............

The US intelligence official said "he's not been very cooperative".

The report said Mr Hussein did not answer all the questions directly and was at times not coherent.

The transcript of interviews was full of "Saddam rhetoric type stuff," said the official.

Time said the official paraphrased some of the discussion. When asked "How are you?" said the official, Mr Hussein responded, "I am sad because my people are in bondage".

When offered a glass of water by interrogators, Mr Hussein replied, "If I drink water I will have to go to the bathroom and how can I use the bathroom when my people are in bondage?"

When asked why Iraq did not let UN weapons inspectors in if it had no weapons, Mr Hussein was quoted as replying: "We didn't want them to go into the presidential areas and intrude on our privacy."
................

Giving an account of Sunday's raid which snared Mr Hussein in a hole under a farmhouse near the northern town of Tikrit, the official said initially nothing was found.

"Then one man on the property, apparently realising the game was up, pointed out a bricked-in wall inside the basement of a small house on the property. 'Saddam is in there', he told the special forces operators," the report said.

"They couldn't get him out at first and had to dig, from either side of the hole," said the official.

"He looked like a homeless man at the bus station," said the official, who confirmed that $US750,000 ($1.02 million) in cash was found with two AK 47 machine guns and a pistol. He said there was also a briefcase that contained a letter from a Baghdad resistance leader.
**************
Misetich

President Bush was quoted as saying ""The capture of this man was crucial to the rise of a free Iraq," Bush said in a three-minute televised address from the White House. "It marks the end of the road for him, and for all who bullied and killed in his name."

Yet the Iraqi people ARE NOT FREE. The country is under occupation. A call for free elections by a leading cleric rather than US appointees is still a stumbling point for the US and its few allies

Reviewing the facts

No proof has been provided by the US and its few allies regarding the stated claims of the invasion

Iraq did not possess WMD
Iraq was not linked to terrorism of 9/11

Thus the question still remains

What were the real motives for the invastion?

Saddam was a puppet of the US during the -80's - US administration under Regan refused to act against Saddam when he allegedly used chemicals against the Kurds

Regan refused to act against Saddam as it would have been agains US bests interests

The NeoCons have declared an open agenda and its imperialistics ambitions - as they fear the dethroning of King $, thus a desperate effort for a grab of Middle East Oil Reserves

The declaration of "war" by the NeoCons against everybody and anybody that does not act in the best interests of the US is a self-destructive process

How will the Arab world react, to being forced in accepting "democracy" as being defined by foreigners to suit their own agenda? How will the Saudi's react - Iran? Are they next?

Will Russia, China, the powerhouses in EU concede to US ambitions?

The symbolic capture of Saddam will score few political points at home - yet it sets up the stage for those who oppose US led doctrine to strike back and destroy the myth that the 'war' is over.

The war on terrorism is being used/capitalized by a few with estranged ideologies.

Those that have followed these ideologies (the vast quiet majority) is paying a price.

Facts are that economic conditions in the US have deteriorated dramatically since the posture of striking first has been adopted

An exodus of billions of $ of foreign investors has left the US markets and billions more have found a different place to invest rather than the US

Whilst Saddam's capture is a celebratory occasion - the focus of reality cannot be obscured

It is hoped the US withdraw from Iraq immediately now that its monster leader has been captured. Yet everybody knows they won't.

Most believe this invasion will turn out positive for the US thus their tacit approval - yet its the biggest gamble in their history.

The future is never as one invisions - after all who would have thought 9/11 was possible?

The economic stakes are high and the tumultous times will continue Saddam or no Saddam - Laden or no Bin Laden -

Hundreds of new Saddams and Laden's are created daily - as they perceive a wrong has been perpetrated on their own -

The costs of fighting a war on terrerorism is unsusastainable - and foreigners that have been footing the bill through re-investments in US $ denominated assets will one day ask higher risk premiums

..and US cannot afford higher interest rates with the monster debt account and fragile economic system pegged to the stock market

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Aragorn III

(12/14/2003; 20:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113477)

Buying gold on Saddam capture is intuitive... or counter-intuitive?

It depends who you are.

How do you step into a gold market canoe? Very carefully! The bigger travellers must think of these details. Smartly under the cover of pricing pressure-relief of an intuitive anti-gold news day do the big ones fill their boat.

How peculiar this must seem to the little mosquito who need only think for its next feast, eager only to see it paddle past and caring not for the boarding procedure.

How will you spend this day?

gold gold?

Dollar Bill

(12/14/2003; 20:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113478)

*>*............+

The admin has opened the forum for political discussions till tomorrow noon......
You know, learning the truth about santa and the easter bunny was disappointing, then as time went on, learning that people were incapable of being flaw free was also a bit disappointing.
Learning about extreme cruel people, saddams family included of course ! Was an unwanted discovery of how bad we can get.
Well, I guess I get used to whatever I discover about life... except you know....I cannot get used to the amount of lying that is done to me.
Lying to effect my thinking and behaviour.
We discuss the economic lying, and it is breathtaking, but the political lying, by the print media, tv, radio, educational system, the politicians, just, I dont know, I just find it intolerable.
I guess it is endurable, but it is so insulting.

Mr Gresham

(12/14/2003; 20:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113479)

White Suze, er, Rose

Fine summary, asset class by asset class. Most of us have had several years to parse through the interrelationships among them under crisis, but there are new people, and we can always use a review. Your primer should turn into an ongoing seminar, which should be welcome here, since the answer to just about each problem turns out to be -- correctly, IMO -- the product under discussion hereabouts.

Especially original, your thoughts on the adjustments to credit card usage under a crisis economy. Can you let your crystal ball linger a bit longer in that direction, and get back to us?

"Debt: avoid debt. While it may seem easy to pay off debt with inflating dollars, the asset you are buying may be dropping in value." Good advice, only I hear Will Rogers whispering in my ear as I finish reading it.

"Buy something that will go up. If it don't go up, don't buy it," he says. And, inserted into your cogent paragraphs, Will could conclude with "See discussion above."

Goldendome

(12/14/2003; 20:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113480)

Rich and Pizz, must be moving the market tonight !!!

Hey, are you the guys moving the Silver market?? That stuff has moved from under $5.40 an hour ago to $5.55 now! Come on now, how much you guys have to buy to make it prance like that?

Remarx

(12/14/2003; 20:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113481)

Not about Hussein

I know everyone is excited about Hussein, but I am not going to let the news media distract me from the fundamentals. The US is going to heck in a handbasket, politically and financially. Empire is not just morally wrong, it is a bad idea in political and fiscal terms. Hussein (yes he was horrible, but with US help) will be used by the media as if he were one of Emanuel Goldstein's henchmen --in regular two minute hate sessions for the public.

That said, back to practical matters of protecting ourselves in this fubar world... I am still hoping someone has more information on transporting PMs across the border to Canada, where they can be stored in (hopefully) a safe deposit box against the possibility of future confiscation. Does anyone know if gold is simply treated as currency, or are there special requirements for declaring it?

Here is what the US Customs says about money:
---
"You may bring into or take out of the country, including by mail, as much money as you wish. But if it's more than $10,000, you'll need to report it to Customs. Ask the Customs officer for the Currency Reporting Form (CF 4790). The penalties for not complying can be quite severe.

"Money" means monetary instruments and includes U.S. or foreign coin currently in circulation, currency, traveler's checks in any form, money orders, and negotiable instruments or investment securities in bearer form."
---

Are maples and eagles considered "currently in circulation"? If not, is gold treated as something else by customs?

Cheers. -r

Goldendome

(12/14/2003; 20:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113482)

(No Subject)

Question from Remarx: Are maples and eagles considered "currently in circulation"?
Remarx: I wish Eagles and Maple Leafs were in circulation, and that each one was spent at my Store, at face value! Being a shrewd and somewhat larcenous retailer, I would immediately replace them with paper of equivalent face value...But then, I guess they would no longer be in circulation, right? So, I guess the answer is a resounding, "NO".

I have accepted in the past, one ounce silver rounds of one sort and another as silver dollars...That works. Hey! I'm not in the bullion business, but if someone walks in and wants to spend, I'm not going to prevent them from doing it. A nicotine fit, is a terrible thing to deny!!

Cytek

(12/14/2003; 21:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113483)

Suddam's capture will change nothing in the markets.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031214/markets_forex_5.htmlReuters
Capture of Saddam Boosts Dollar
Sunday December 14, 10:25 pm ET
By Naomi Tajitsu

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar rose against major rivals on Monday after U.S. troops captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein over the weekend, but it lost some gains on lingering doubts about U.S. economic fundamentals.
The dollar rose as high as 108.39 yen in early Asian trade before easing to 108.03/05 yen -- up about 0.1 percent from Friday's late New York level -- by 9:50 p.m. EST Sunday.

"When you think about it, the capture doesn't really mean that terrorism will completely disappear, or erase the U.S. deficit," said Tomoko Fujii, economic and market analyst at Nikko Citigroup.

The news was a perfect excuse to buy dollars for many of those who had been short on the greenback, she added.

Dealers said the greenback's initial rally was due to views that Hussein's arrest could not only raise U.S. consumer confidence but also lessen the U.S. current account deficit and curb a rise in oil prices if it brings an end to violence in Iraq.

But while some said the capture offered a psychological boost to the beleaguered greenback, others doubted there would be any long-term effect on the market.

"The (dollar's) rise was more subdued than expected. The market was anticipating it to go even higher (against the yen) but it has stopped," said Shogo Nagaya, a manager at Nomura Trust, adding that many dealers had been expecting the greenback to break the 109 yen level.

"Basically, the impact of the news was short-lived."
Still, traders said that while arrest of Hussein could sooth some market concerns about tensions in Iraq, the dollar would continue to be stifled by ongoing geopolitical risks in the region, in addition to a festering U.S. trade deficit.

Many investors were cautious about the capture and expressed concern over the possibility of retaliatory attacks and the effects they could have on the market. Some pointed out that while Saddam was in custody, Osama bin Laden was still on the loose.

In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's recent comment that the dollar's decline had been "orderly" remained fresh in the minds of many traders.

Snow's comments on Friday had sent the already-falling dollar lower, giving the euro the impetus to surge to new lifetime and session highs around $1.23.

"For those two reasons, there's still a sense of unease about the dollar that won't go away just with Saddam's capture," Nomura's Nagaya said.

Cytek
Tell it like it is Nomura. The dollar is still toast.

misetich

(12/14/2003; 21:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113484)

US $ Chart and Direction

The following is a summary from a subscribed service on
the technicals of US $ index

$DXY - DOLLAR INDEX (INDEX)
Date Open High Low Last Change % Change
12/12/03 88.84 88.92 88.40 88.60 -0.30 -0.34%

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter (TM) Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Sell

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 50% - Sell

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell

Overall Average: 80% - Sell

............................

Misetich

BUY GOLD - BUY GOLD - BUY GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

DummyANI

(12/14/2003; 21:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113485)

@R Powell (12/14/03; 11:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 113442)

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspHellow, R Powell I gained from jsmineset.

snip:
Sunday, December 07, 2003, 12:05:00 AM EST

1/ There are many gold funds today run by managers that have been drafted into gold shares whose hearts are really in the general equities arena. This is why Barrick has been strong lately. These newly drafted gold fund managers honestly believe that you can be short 16,000,000 ounces of gold in a bull market and it means "diddly-squat." They might be in for a shock if gold tacks on a few hundred dollars from here before that hedge is covered. Barrick has been harangued by its shareholders for years to cease hedging yet it didn't. In fact, they actually expanded it. Why all of a sudden such a change of mindset? Was it a hedging epiphany in management? You have to be kidding! It was a cash call, IMO. Only something really painful could have changed the mind of a group that had a short position in gold which was reported to be 28,000,000 ounces at its high-water mark. The next quarterly statement will reveal if I am correct. Look at the size of borrowing or draw-down on cash. Check the footnotes to its financial statements. There you will see the affect on the balance sheet due to the cash demands generated by margin free gold short positions.

end-snip:

D-ANI: 16 million oz is 498 ton,

and 28 million oz is 871 ton.

TOCOM gained very sharply. If you meet at a dip of POG, it may be a X-mas present from Jim Sinclair.

Buy a gold, sell a Yen.

Cytek

(12/14/2003; 21:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113486)

Tomorrow's action

I believe there will be a massive Santa Rally as everything is likely to open on the highs tomorrow. The one key is short interest in "everything" out there is at an all time high. The MM's would be crazy not to open everything up on the highs by bidding up anything they want to dump.As i write this the DOW futures are up 130, NAS 26 and S&P 14.

I think all the indicies will rally in the morning only to sell off by the end of the day. So if you don't own it i wouldn't be buying anything unless of course GOLD or you are a daytrader. If the PM's sell off tomorrow, well all i can say is, it's another buying opportunity. And like many of you on this board say Gold climbs the wall of hope, meanwhile stocks climb the wall of fear. The real question you have to ask yourself, is hope being taken away or is fear being taken away?

The Stranger

(12/14/2003; 22:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113487)

R Powell

Thanks for your remarks. I think the reaction is already over with. The lowest gold prices occurred at the opening in the Far East. That was when the compulsion to sell was the greatest.

As far as the markets in general, I am bearish on bonds and agnostic about stocks. But my greatest conviction is still with gold.

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 23:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113488)

Silver market

@Goldendome

With the world shortages, Rich probably bought another bag of junk silver and ran the price up

(:>) Goldilox

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 23:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113489)

Transporting gold

@ Remarx

Save yourself the customs hassle and just buy the Leafs in Canada. Then you only need worry about Canadian and IRS capital gains reporting requirements. Also, use cashier's checks. They are ultimately traceable, but not as directly as your personal checks, and are less suspicious than cash.

Want one more level of security (if you have the funds) - create a corporate trust in Canada to manage your "overseas" funds - with a trustee of your choice. Any decent trust attorney can help with that. There is no law against doing "business" across the border, but make sure you stay on top of tax laws in both countries.

I used to deal with customs officials in and out of Canada on business, and they can be a pain on both sides.

Goldilox

(12/14/2003; 23:39:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113490)

PS -Remarx

If you get a Canadian bank account, you can transfer money without transporting it physically. A VISA check card also works at Canadian banks to withdraw cash for a cashier's check.

There are lots of ways to avoid transporting physical over the border.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/15/2003; 00:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113491)

Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence. USAGOLD-CPM is your friend in the business.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

DummyANI

(12/15/2003; 02:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113492)

Gold-rush�@by the investment banks

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspsnip:
Sunday, December 14, 2003, 5:33:00 PM EST

Reading the Fine Print Author: Jim Sinclair

Soon, you will receive from your bank, clearing house and brokerage firms, a similar notification that excess SIPC insurance no longer exists on your account. Therefore, the absolute maximum insurance you have is $500,000 on all your accounts at that institution - possibly at all institutions in which you have accounts.
This is happening because if an industry-wide problem occurred, there could be a limitation of insurance that might apply to any one claimant. While it may not be an important event for everyone, it certainly will be for the makers and shakers of markets.
This is one reason why a new group, the international establishment investment banks, have entered the gold market. For gold, this event could be orders of magnitude more important than the capture of Saddam Hussein
Snip-end:

D-ANI: Gold-rush is happening by the international establishment investment banks, because no insurance companies exist which can undertake so-called excess-SIPC coverage insurances. So the investment banks buy gold in order to hedge their financial risks.

If DOW is closed at 10,150 point today( Dec. 15), it may be a current top. This is another bull signal for gold.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Paper Avalanche

(12/15/2003; 04:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113493)

1.499999 Billion To Go....

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-12/15/content_290537.htmI find it inconceivable and mathematically impossible that the paper gold markets will be able to control the price of physical gold in light of the coming wave of physical buying in China.

Interesting article on how Chinese physical gold buying is accelerating as we speak.

Tick tock.

Paper Avalanche

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/15/2003; 05:03:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113494)

Page Update!

Waverider

(12/15/2003; 06:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113495)

Thanks Black Blade

Your efforts and commitment in getting us the DMR today are appreciated! Cheers,

Waverider

R Powell

(12/15/2003; 07:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113496)

Overnight

From DummyANI ....

"If DOW is closed at 10,150 point today( Dec. 15), it may be a current top. This is another bull signal for gold"

This struck me as perhaps prophetic since it is exactly the number others have mentioned and, because it is exactly the current DOW futures number, as of now, 30 minutes before the market open.

Silver opened at 455, immediately fell to 542 and then immediately returned to the 460 level. I wish I had had that open order to buy at 542!

I'm impressed with POG's ability to hold the 400 level over night. It's only down less than 1% now and seems awfully resilient. Will gold close higher today in spite of Saddam's capture? We shall see.
Rich

R Powell

(12/15/2003; 07:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113497)

Correction

No, silver didn't open at 455, my error, it was 555.

Cometose

(12/15/2003; 07:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113498)

NEW CABAL IN TOWN

It appears (based on last nights activity ) that there is a new cabal in town ....IT buys any weakness in GOLD and SILVER........

Jing Zu

(12/15/2003; 07:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113499)

Russia plays down importance of Saddam capture

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3993413December 15, 2003 09:00:44 (ET)
MOSCOW, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Russia on Monday played down the importance of the weekend capture of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, with a top diplomat describing the event as "mainly symbolic".
In a stance that contrasts starkly with Western euphoria, Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov made it clear Russia was unhappy about U.S. attempts to deny post-war contracts in Iraq to states that opposed the U.S.-led offensive against Iraq.
"We are talking here about what is mainly a symbolic event," Fedotov said of Saddam's capture, in remarks to Itar-Tass news agency.
"The arrest does not significantly change the situation as his regime was overthrown some time ago. We would like to think that Saddam Hussein's arrest will help stabilise the situation in Iraq. But developments will only be determined over time."
(This statement, I believe is correct)
Fedotov also said that settlement of Iraqi debt, including an estimated $8 billion to Russia, should be made through the Paris club of creditor nations.
(I thought that the last administration released the debt that was due the US from the USSR, but I guess that "Russia" will not do the same for the "New Iraq"?)
Russia joined France and Germany in opposing the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that culminated in Saddam's overthrow and the installation of a U.S.-appointed governing council.
It has since smoothed over ties with Washington, but continues to call for a greater role for the United Nations ahead of a transfer of power back to the Iraqis.
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, in Latin America, was more lukewarm than both France and Germany, which both welcomed news of Saddam's arrest.
"We think the arrest of Saddam Hussein will contribute to the strengthening of security in Iraq and to the process of political regulation in the country with the active participation of the U.N.," Ivanov said on Sunday.
Fedotov told Tass only Iraqis could decide how to examine their past and judge leaders of the former regime. Washington's attempts to restrict access to contracts had clear political overtones, he said.
"If coalition participants intend to act independently, they can hardly count on the support and understanding of other countries," he said.
In comments to Interfax news agency, Fedotov said the Paris Club was the sole reasonable means of settling debt issues.
"This is a modern, civilised system of settling foreign debt, used everywhere, and Russia favours such a mechanism being applied to Iraq," he was quoted as saying.
(Civilized system, used everywhere?)
U.S. special envoy James Baker will embark on a European mission this week to discuss Iraq debt relief with France, Germany, Italy, Russia and Britain.
(That should be an interesting trip to be on�..flying around, talking about who owes what to who�.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Very interesting times we live in for sure!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Truthcaster

(12/15/2003; 08:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113500)

Big trouble

It seems that the state of the dollar is in more
trouble than I even thought. And I'm one of the
biddest doom and gloomers around. If Saddam's capture
can't get a pop out of the dollar what can? This morning
gold is now only down about 1.70 Unreal!!

Jing Zu

(12/15/2003; 08:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113501)

@Truthcaster

I think I would take advantage of the higher dollar to sell more before it goes down another 50%.... That is probably what they are thinking.... I would be thinking the same except I live here and just buy gold....

It is unbelievable though, isn't it!

Gold!!!

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 08:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113502)

Saddam slide

Ok, dancers, the "Saddam Slide" is already over, gold is up $2.90 and miners are following close behind. Now. let's get back in line to resume our "Dollar Drop" rehearsals.

Sort of like the first Dow 10000 last week, if you blinked, you missed it.

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 08:44:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113503)

Blizzard?

Come on, BB, CNBC's weather desk says there is "light snow" in the Rockies moving east. Aren't you glad they are so accurate in their reporting?

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 08:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113504)

Dollar decline - CNBC interview

Meg Browne of HSBC currency desk says the $49B foreign purchase numbers look much better than September's $16B, but in a seasonal comparison are still off from normal, suggesting that foreign US$ assets are not coming home to roost in the same volumes as last year.

Breakfast toast anyone?

admin

(12/15/2003; 09:08:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113505)

News & Views

7nomads

(12/15/2003; 09:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113506)

WHERE'S THE BUYING OPPORTUNITY?

Gold higher than it was this hour last Friday. The dollar flat. After years of buying gold below value, am I going to have to start paying what it is worth. Actually, the last isn't true by a decimal point.

Anyway, Saddam, he let me down. :)

Dollar Bill

(12/15/2003; 09:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113507)

*>*............+

Since the admin gave us till noon US mountain time to get even more political than economics allows....
There is a political battle in the US between humanists -
those that think that either there is no god, or at most, it is merely an affirmer of human preferences.
That there is no moral authority higher than ones own personal preferences. This group, includes harvard divinity school. When they had mother theresa there to give a speech in the early nineties, they reprinted her speech in thier paper, they edited out every reference she made to god and jesus. Rather telling dont you think?

If there is any opposition to that humanist group, it wont come from those that fall asleep under the programming of "tolerance" and cower at the insults of "your judgementalism" "your intolerant bigotry".

CoBra(too)

(12/15/2003; 09:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113508)

Recent History on Iraq - Even if brief!

The Us have been backing the Shah of Iran until 1978, the Ayatollah revolution. A lot of things have gone bad for the US since in the region. Some former high-powered Iranians left for the US, among them the former Iranian prime Minister (and Minister of Finance), is and has been part of an important think tank for D. Rockefeller, who BTW is a really intelligent and straight guy, I've had the pleasure to meet a few times.

After that the Iran war, thought to be a push over by Iraq's Saddam went sour, the US backed Saddam. And guess what, Reagan sent Rumsfeld as a special envoy to re-arm Saddam, seeing a chance to forge out a new US base in Iraq to replace the Iranian bases and and the influence in ME - outside of Israel, that is - and that's probably also as close to the crux of the matter as is the ME oil resource.

Well, and the rest is really history, as I still wonder, who was behind Saddam's attack on Kuwait?

OK, now the US troops have caught a blabbering bum, a real disgrace to the muslim world, as Saddam was at least thought to be tough enough to take on the empire, or at least be man enough to take the consequences.

The justification for this war becomes even more nebulous with the capture of the (former) greatly feared tyrannic ruler.

The forex, sm, bond and lastly the pm markets will have shrugged off this acclaimed "victory" before the day is over.

Much more interesting is the failure of the EU to find a solution to the stalemate at this weekends meetings to adopt a common constitution. It's kind of interesting, that Poland and Spain, both supporting the US in its Iraq policy, have been the premier antagonists. Seems, "If you're not with US, you're against US", is bearing some fruit. At least as long as these people believe that there's more to gain from the US than an unified Europe.

Some may see other solutions. And while all would prefer an orderly dis-solution to the already bankrupt dollar reserve system, it may be dangerous to your financial health to keep on propping up delusions.

Whatever, sometimes politics clarify more than they were intented to do. So, nothing has changed fundamentally - it may yet be construed as a face saving operation to move out of the region, though I would doubt that - see Rumsfeld and his neo-cons!

Why bother to even comment on these, lastly non-events? Well, again, because they teach me more of the value to hold physical as these kind of "world-shaking" news are not even worth to consider for more than a very short term trader. And that's not why I'm here!

Got Gold?! - That's going to be the only reality you can count on! cb2

Max Rabbitz

(12/15/2003; 10:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113509)

World Politics

The Russians, French and Germans made a large investment in Saddam Hussein, and he in them. It didn't work out. The accusations that the United States built up Hussein and ignored human rights violations is correct but not quite the whole truth. He was used the U.S. as a bulwark against Iranian Fundamentalism and Soviet designs after the loss of the Shah but during the last dozen years his support came from others. The technological domination that Western countries developed since the Rennaisance came largely from the competition between nation states(Contrast to China over the last 1000 years). Lots of bloody wars, but lots of technology advances. This can be a weakness in a world where technology flows so easily. I do not understand why the Russians would assist Iran in developing nuclear technology when the Russians would seem to have the most to lose. And wasn't it the French who were building nuclear plants in Iraq some years ago, when all that natural gas is just being flared? Some things seem to me to go beyond the rational.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/15/2003; 10:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113510)

Build your financial base with bullion at only 1% over our cost!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 10:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113511)

Rational?

@ Max

During the SM "bubble" a lot of attention was paid to the propensity of CEOs to ignore the long range picture for the current quarter's "window dressing". Geo-politics plays in this arena as well. Get the current profit and ignore the long range. Heck, the religious nuts are trying to end the world so they can be "wisked off to hebben", anyway. Might as well stock up in case they succeed.

It's all about who has the power RIGHT NOW! Rumsfeld sold a nuclear reactor to North Korea from his "Swiss" company just five years ago, but now they are one of his prime targets. Book profits and then destroy the infrastructure, so you can profit again by rebuilding it. It's been going on in South America for decades under the guise of "Monroe Doctrine". Each administration plans its activities in "four year plans" so their golden parachutes are operable if they lose the election. Besides, there are lots of "consulting" jobs available rebuilding those nukes after the Israelis bomb them.

Gandalf the White

(12/15/2003; 11:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113512)

WOWSERS !!! Keep JUMPING SPOT and SPIKE !!!!! <;-)

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1What happened to the expected BOP ?
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 11:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113513)

Jump spot jump

Gold has already recovered from $400+ to $409 since 00:00 GMT. . . $410 here we come! Let's bash through with conviction this time!!

It appears the markets are quite less reactive to non-events than the market press! The CNBC team seems SOOOO disappointed that DJ30 did not get a triple digit bump. Oh well - now they have to "uuurn it".

For those still looking for a lower entry point for PMs, unless you have taken Sinclair's advice and initiated 24 hr trading, THIS IS IT.

Gold has successfully fought off hedging, massive dollar buying, and the geopolitical miniseries (mini-miseries?). What a show of strength! Wall of worry, my behind! Every single attack has brought buyers out in droves!

Read my lips! Let's get physical, physical!!!

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 11:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113514)

2 da MOON

Sir MK, I hope you're well stocked with inventory, 'cause we be gwine to da Moon! $410.50 and counting.

Jing Zu

(12/15/2003; 11:25:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113515)

Wow...

What a spread...Bid is 410.1 and Ask is 411.6.. That is pretty wild indeed.

Wonder what will happen next?

Gold.

Jing Zu

(12/15/2003; 11:29:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113516)

Dollar.....Wow.

The dollar has hit another low in so many years.. It does not look good for our country and its financial system for the next few years...

They are selling off and LOSING FAITH as I have always heard that the dollar was always worth our faith in it.

Guess that was true? Huh?

Go Gold!

steady

(12/15/2003; 11:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113517)

subjective or objectibve faith?

is faith objective or subjective in regards to a fiat currency that is over printed by exxcess of govt?
does govt qualify for obtaining someones faith?
hmmm more to ponder as we keep our eye on the golden ball!

gold and silver........ worthy of faith... subjectively or even objectivly!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/15/2003; 11:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113518)

The delivery window is narrowing fast! Act soon and give the gift of gold!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

3 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

DryWasher

(12/15/2003; 11:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113519)

Understanding WHY the people of Iraq don't trust the US.

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/
The above link is to an index of United States National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Books which may help give the reader a real education on just how we have gotten to where we are at today in the world, and well worth bookmarking for future reference.

Of particular interest concerning Iraq and Saddam Hussein is the following link http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/index.htm which shows Saddam Hussein shaking hands with Donald Rumsfeld, then special envoy of President Ronald Reagan, in Baghdad on December 20, 1983.

As with all such material interpretation of the given documents can vary and you must apply your own truth filter to what you find at the links.

Some great and very insightful posts today guys. I must agree with Sir CB2 that the capture of Saddam is turning out to be a big non-event from an economic perspective.

More good reasons to hold Physical Gold.

DryWasher.

mikal

(12/15/2003; 11:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113520)

Iraqnam

http://www.etherzone.com/2003/raim121503.shtmlSADDAM: CELEBRITY TYRANT
HIS CAPTURE MAY CREATE MORE PROBLEMS
By: Justin Raimondo
At the end of his long war against the Roman Empire, the rebel chieftain of ancient Gaul, Vercingetorix, was captured and brought in chains to Rome, where he was dragged along the cobblestones of the Appian Way behind a chariot to the "ooohs" and "aaaahs" of the Roman public. And while Saddam, a petty tyrant, is no Vercingetorix � who had at least a few victories to his credit � and Bush is no Julius Caesar, a similar fate awaits the former Iraqi dictator.
The dancing in the streets that never quite materialized in Iraq on the occasion of our great "victory" is being broadcast, as I write [Sunday morning] � although the profusion of red flags emblazoned with the hammer-and-sickle is no doubt a bit embarrassing to the administration.
I suppose the Iraqi Communist Party has every right to dance in the streets, right alongside noted laptop bombardier Andrew Sullivan, Field Marshall Glenn Reynolds, and the general staff of the Weekly Standard � after all, Saddam did kill thousands of Iraqi Commies even after they endorsed the Ba'athist dictatorship. Revenge � for the loss of land, prestige, preeminence � is a major feature of Middle Eastern political culture, and the planting of a booted heel on an opponent's neck is part of the ritual.

The same forced triumphalism that accompanied our quick "victory" in Iraq is now being bloviated all across creation: it will prove just as ephemeral. Saddam was hiding in his "spider hole," we are told, he had a gun but chose not to "go down fighting." The emphasis on Saddam's personal cowardice is meant to rub in the weakness of Arab resistance to the American conquerors, and demonstrate to the Iraqis that they have no choice but to give up their old mindset, become Jeffersonian democrats, and start shopping at Wal-Mart.
The capture � and utterly revolting public display � of Saddam will not matter one whit to the growth and development of the insurgency in Iraq. Its significance is all about American politics, and that is just how it is being played in the American media. Immediately, each and every Democratic candidate was somehow obligated to make a statement, and Tom Brokaw approvingly noted that today was not such a good day for Howard Dean, who was somehow � we aren't told how � diminished by the news of Saddam's capture. Narcissism is as much a part of American political culture as the centrality of revenge is Mesopotamian, and the correct perception that this is a personal triumph for George W. Bush has crowded out what this means on the ground in Iraq. The capture of Saddam, Americans are convinced, is all about them.
The idea that the insurgents are all or mostly Ba'athist remnants, or "dead-enders," as administration spokesmen like to put it, was always highly dubious: contrary to what in-the-know analysts have said, and the exact opposite of what's being reported. Saddam's capture will make this "dead-enders" caricature even less convincing.
Resistance to the American occupation is now shifting from the infamous "Sunni triangle," to the Shi'ite south, where Iranian influence is spreading. This is the domain of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and their party militia, the Badr Brigade. In the run up to war, SCIRI was the only Iraqi opposition group that refused U.S. funding. (This may be the only known instance of such a refusal.) SCIRI was hosted, armed, and trained, during the Saddam era, by Iran: their goal is to set up an Islamic "republic," modeled on the one in Tehran. Their leader, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqr al-Hakim, was mysteriously assassinated as he visited a Shi'ite shrine in Najaf. Before the invasion, SCIRI officials predicted that they might one day fight the Americans just as they fought Saddam, and the hour may be fast approaching.
A recent pronouncement by the Grand Ayatollah Sistani, a powerful Shi'ite cleric, condemning the American plan to rig the upcoming elections in favor of Washington's handpicked candidates was a shot fired across the bow. American viceroy Paul Bremer and his sock puppets on the Iraqi "Governing Council" were quick to fire back with an outright rejection of the Ayatollah's fatwa. That the occupiers are headed for a collision with the majority Shi'ites is bad news for the War Party, and an unbelievably stupid blunder on Bremer's part. If his days at the head of the occupation aren't numbered, then this administration really is headed for a cataclysm of historic proportions.
In his statement hailing the capture, the President said:
"I also have a message for all Americans. The capture of Saddam Hussein does not mean the end of violence in Iraq. We still face terrorists who would rather go on killing the innocent than accept the rise of liberty in the heart of the Middle East. Such men are a direct threat to the American people, and they will be defeated."
"The rise of liberty"? Not when we're opposing direct elections in Iraq, and holding up some "caucus" system that gives all power to our Iraqi surrogates.
"A direct threat to the American people"? Yeah, just like those Iraqi drones that � according to the President � were supposedly armed with weapons of mass destruction and programmed to rain destruction on the streets of Brooklyn.
The President was right, however, to warn us that the capture of Saddam doesn't mean an end to the insurgency. If anything, this will merely intensify the violence, and not solely on account of Sunni resentment at the ignominious fate of their deposed champion. The elimination of the Saddam factor will pave the way for anti-Saddam Ba'athists (whose hatred of the old regime is rooted in clan politics), Arab nationalists, and neo-communist militants to push their way to the front of the growing resistance.
The capture of Saddam alive has the potential of becoming the biggest circus since the arrest of pop-singer and alleged pedophile Michael Jackson. The two media carnivals, I fear, will prove alike in ways that are just as obvious as they are disturbing. Both Whacko Jacko and Saddam Insane have popular nicknames that are less than flattering, and not without reason. Both lived in palaces, and now face the prospect of life in a jail cell. Their faces are instantly recognizable to millions, their alleged crimes are infamous (if not equally so), and their respective trials will be the focus of international attention, morality plays in which the values and conceits of the judges and the judged will be enacted on the world stage.
This may be stretching an analogy to the breaking point � after all, we're talking about a ruthless tyrant and an eccentric pop star here! � but if Saddam's prosecutors have more on Saddam than Santa Barbara District Attorney Tom Sneddon has on Jacko, they have yet to show their hand. Time magazine has a bit of a scoop, with an early report of Saddam's interrogation in which he confirms that the "weapons of mass destruction" he supposedly had existed only in the collective imagination of the Office of Special Plans and in Dick Cheney's dreams. Time reports:
"Saddam was also asked whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. 'No, of course not,' he replied, according to the official, 'the U.S. dreamed them up itself to have a reason to go to war with us.' The interrogator continued along this line, said the official, asking: 'if you had no weapons of mass destruction then why not let the U.N. inspectors into your facilities?' Saddam's reply: 'We didn't want them to go into the presidential areas and intrude on our privacy.'"
These Arabs just don't get modernity, do they? There is no privacy, anymore � especially for celebrities in the Saddam-Jacko mould. But this could prove just as problematic for the U.S. government as for the celebrity tyrant. He may prove more of a rallying point for Iraq's Sunnis in prison than he ever was hiding in a hole in the ground. Having a talkative Saddam around creates a whole lot of problems for the U.S. that will no doubt make more than one official wish the Iraqi leader had put up a fight so they could have offed him when they had the chance. Among the embarrassing tales he might tell:
How the U.S. supported his regime through the years.
How his conversation with U.S. ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie led him to believe his invasion of Kuwait would go unopposed.
How there never were any WMD in Iraq, nor even the remotest possibility of constructing any.
And, most intriguingly, the inside story on why the U.S. turned against a sometime ally.
The bidding war for his memoirs, if it hasn't started already, is going to be hot and heavy. It's sure to help defray his legal expenses, although the trial, if it ever comes, is bound to be delayed. There is the question of jurisdiction: will the U.S. try him, in an American court? As an "enemy combatant," if ever there was one, he may just be delivered over to a military tribunal. The cry has already gone up to hand him over to the International Tribunal at The Hague, but this will doubtless cause an outcry from the unilateralists, and the anti-UN crowd, and the controversy will be grist for nearly everyone's mill.
Oh, what a brouhaha it all promises to be, what a spectacle! With the economy up, for the moment, and the entertainment about to begin, Americans can rest content, this Christmas, in the knowledge that they are possessed of the two essential ingredients necessary to the happiness of an Imperial people: bread and circuses.

R Powell

(12/15/2003; 11:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113521)

Good call !!

This is from The Stranger's post 113487 from last night

"I think the reaction is already over with. The lowest gold prices occurred at the opening in the Far East. That was when the compulsion to sell was the greatest."

I'm duely impressed with this and those others who opined that the gold and dollar bop would be very short lived indeed. Is it now safe to say that the above $400 level has been tested yet again and found to be sound? Gold is a political metal and the news of Hussain's capture (alive no less!) had to turn the price lower but..apparently the downturn got hammered right back higher in less than 24 hours. Wow!

steady

(12/15/2003; 12:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113522)

parrots/ventrilquists/ fog, all can not stand heat.

lots of the above on this board today yozers, seperate the wheat from the chaff to earn your golden rewards!

Cavan Man

(12/15/2003; 12:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113523)

FOREX

By Manuela Badawy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar retested record lows against the euro on Monday after trimming gains made on the initial excitement over the capture of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) at the weekend.

Cavan Man

(12/15/2003; 12:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113524)

Hello R Powell

RE: Metals and Equities Markets post Hussein surrenderCavan Man (12/14/03; 12:28:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 113448)
Saddam Hussein influencing metals and equities markets...?
Senor Hussein, a brutal dictator and murderer, is simply Another Manuel Noriega with really bad timing--also in the wrong part of the world. "At the end of the day", this foul beast possessed NO WMD, had NO part in attacking the US and NO plans to attack the US or her proxy, Israel. Good riddance but, the Thought of his capture having any effect on metals or equities markets is patently absurd.

slingshot

(12/15/2003; 12:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113525)

Nothing has changed

Tate Msg #113471 What a short lived buying opportunity. From $409 down to $401. Don't blink for if you do you miss it. I truly thought POG would hit below $400 but I did not. All that media coverage. The funny thing is that Saddam was only good for an eight dollar drop. Hey! Osama, how much better can you do? Could it be the Joe Six Pack is now looking at the money in his pockets and turning away from the hype.

Just how many more Bad Guys do we have left? ;0)

I predict that when OBL is captured the POG will drop in price at the cost of one Cheap Beer.

Great Post, Tate.
Slingshot------------------<>

Operative

(12/15/2003; 12:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113526)

What A Mess!

Visited my CPA earlier today and I am still fuming over an item he had framed and hanging on the wall. A copy of the very first IRS Tax Form, from 1913. One, single page, looked like about a dozen lines to fill out. Compare that to the trainload of rules/regs/etc required to pay one's taxes today. Perhaps the simplist answer to correct this mess is to let the IRS train follow the general US dollar train over the cliff. Reminds me one of the reasons I like gold and silver so much, not only is it honest, but simple. The truth can be that way sometimes.

admin

(12/15/2003; 12:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113527)

Political Discussion Window Closed

Thanks for the co-operation. We'll do it again in the future.

Ag Mountain

(12/15/2003; 12:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113528)

OK, I'm convinced more than ever

The way I see it Aragorn sure hammered home a delicate point. Now for me it's not too hard to imagine how much pressure there must be with everything considered. Obviously, somebody's buying gold. Just think how much HIGHER the gold price could have actually been pushed today if we were WITHOUT the benefit of all this heady good news that Hussein has been nabbed!!

So when you're seeing gold rise like this under good news, you can be pretty sure there's no point waiting around for any better deals to come down the pike because the public always buys on bad news and when the public pressure eases on good news the giants buy especially. The time is now. Get gold!

melda laure

(12/15/2003; 13:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113529)

There is no terror premium.

SlingshotNot only has nothing changed. (from 409 to 401 and all the way back up again). There is no terror premium on gold.

i Aran aranion, ar heru herion!

One of these days soon it will be no retreat and no prisoners. (eeew!)

tyro

(12/15/2003; 13:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113530)

Official: Bush plan would halve deficit in 5 years

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-12-13-bush-budget_x.htmSnip: "In an interview Friday, Joel Kaplan, deputy director of the White House budget office, said Bush would halve the deficit "by pursuing very aggressively his pro-growth economic policies, and by leading the Congress toward overall policies of fiscal restraint. And if the Congress adheres to those two programs, we'll be successful in halving the deficit from its '04 peak within that time period."
tyro: Guess we can all relax and sell gold now, that is, those who believe this!

Operative

(12/15/2003; 13:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113531)

Another Life Lesson.

Winterizing my ole truck is a chore that comes around at a time when I really don't feel like doing it. (Strange how that always works out). Along with changing vital fluids and such the cab gets a good cleaning too. Seems most of the garbage ends up under the seats. You know, the unused Wendy's coupons, candy bar wrappers, Kleenex, a few coins, and today, I found a few dollars. I write this post because upon retrieving those dollars their overall appearance strikingly reminded me of the grungy and worn out appearing Saddam. Both seem way past thier prime and sadly await thier replacement. Another thought occured to me was how differantly I treat the "precious" one. Locked up warm and safe, some even resting on a velveted carpet, enjoying the company with all the other worldly things of importance to me. (Reminder to self: I must needs convert more of those dirty dollars for the golden one, and keep a garbage handy in the truck)

Pizz

(12/15/2003; 14:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113532)

Tyro

With over 70% of our economy driven by consumers, about the only way Bush could accomplish this task would be for the the government to issue everyone a government Visa card with a 50,000 limit, 0% interest, and payments amortized over, say, 100 years.

Why not? Most credit card companies are pulling every trick in the book so as not to have to honor those low rates everyone has. Read your year end card disclosures for next year. If you go over limit, pay late, or even show a pattern not consistant with being a good credit risk, you're rates can go into the high twenties. One I received said if I didn't like the new terms, I could write them and not go with the new programs, and they would counter by not renewing the card at expiration.

I wonder if I could get a long term government loan using my anticipated social security for collateral. Right now I'd take $.25 on the dollar, cash, right now. Better yet, why don't they just cash us out at the same rate and get rid of the liability? Just think of the spending most would go on! They'd have to hurry and buy all kinds of "stuff" before the inflation kicked in, cause they'd have to print the fiat. There ain't no money in the citizens social security - they just do that for federal workers.

I'd rather have mine in gold, don't ya think????

Pizz

specie-man

(12/15/2003; 14:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113533)

Official: Bush plan would halve deficit in 5 years

Cutting the Federal budget deficit in half, or even eliminating the deficit completely, is not difficult.

If they mailed a $25,000 US Treasury check (drawn on Federal Reserve funds created out of thin air) to everyone in the country, and taxed it as income, then the deficit would be gone. Of course, there would be other consequences.

For the deficit to be reduced, tax receipts must increase. For tax receipts to increase, corporate and household income (wages & employment) MUST rise.

Inflation !

CoBra(too)

(12/15/2003; 14:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113534)

A Perspective - of Reality? Probably Yes!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hultberg/hultberg121503.htmlAnd probably sooner than we were, admittedly, accepting the outcome. After all, an outcome outlined here on this great forum for years. No-one here has an excuse for getting stampeded - including poor li'l old I and poor old Salomon Weaver, of course. The latter being, probably more prepared than most.

Didn't make up my mind to agree all the way with Nelson, though, at least most of the way!

As we don't know, when tomorrow comes - it seems awfully close these days ... An oxymoron of consequence, I fear!

... And, after all, today has shown the way ... don't wait for dips - get your golden insurance anyway! cb2

slingshot

(12/15/2003; 15:21:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113535)

Midas Crusade

Day after day the Scots played their music. For the GoldBugs it made their tasks easier and within a few days they began to sing from sun up to sun down. Those in Hammerton were kept at the ready long hours. Axe and saw
cleaved in tempo as brace and bit drilled.
The blacksmith operated his bellows and the coals glowed brightly and the iron within was laid upon the anvil. The hammer was lifted and with mighty blows formed the metal into shape. A shape to be use against Hammerton.
It was on the sixth day that riders from the Valley of Clouds arrived with news. Boaz and Jachin followed by Bonfir rode into camp.A cheer sounded for all knew they would see old friends soon.
Bonfir dismounted and greeted Sir M.K. I bring you good news, Sir M.K. Bonfir and Sir M.K shook hands. Tell me Bonfir, How soon before they arrive, asked Sir M.K.
We await the Kights of Old, said Bonfir. We have a army behind us that dwarfs your greatest dreams. They will march soon.
We have two rivers to cross and the north part of the island to prevent re-enforcements from reaching the town, said Sir M.K. I hope they will be here in time.
As he spoke the Dark Forces were indeed approaching and the East bridge was still open.
It was then that Lady Waverider came into their company.
Let us go down and test the defences at the West bridge, she said. Looking for a fight Lady Waverider? asked Sir M.K.
We came here to do just that. Didn't we? she said.
Omar Khayyam joining them spoke. She has a valid point. Let the Ladies go. I have confidence in them.
Sir M.K. thought for a moment. Very well, he said. But only a slight engagement.
Lady Waverider smiled and went back to her encampment and shortly there after the Lady Warriors were at the edge of the forest opposite the West gate and its defences.
Ladies Waverider,Leigh,White Rose, Siochania,Grateful for Gold and others assembled behind the treeline.
The Scots seeing this stopped the song they were presently playing. They looked at these warriors upon their horses. Sword, Bow and shield adorned them. Their horses had froth in their mouths and the riders restrained them.
The air was charged. The battle was to begin.
The Scots after a few seconds knew which song to play.
One that filled their own hearts. The drums play louder than before and the pipes sang their tune.
A raise of her shield, then a shout. Ya, Haaaaaaaaaaaa!
and she burst forth from the trees and small brush. The others followed and down they rode. They rode like they wind and the first volley of arrows past over them. Closer they came to the bridge. They raised their shields to fend off the second volley. No one fell. In the blink of an eye the Lady Warriors switched to Bows and with horses at full gallop, raised up in their saddles, let loose their arrows.
Sir M.K., Omar Bonfir and the rest watched as each arrow found its mark. Those behind the earthworks filled in the place of the fallen.
The Lady Warriors made a sweeping motion from right to left. Turned about and came back to let loose a second flight or arrows. They as before were deadly and after the second pass rode back to the protection of the woods. The Scots cheered as they arrived.
The Lady Warriors rode up to the bluff where Sir M.K. Sir Black Blade, Bonfir,Jachin,and Boaz stood.
Well done , said Sir Black Blade.
The Lady Warriors turned to go back to their camp.
It must have been a sight to see women come against them, said Boaz to Jachin.
They better get use to it, said Jachin.
Lady Waverider stoped and turned in her saddle.
Strange she thought. Where was Gandalf and Cougar?

Slingshot----------------------<>

glennh10

(12/15/2003; 15:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113536)

Article: Halving the deficit

The most telling statement was buried in the middle of the article:

"Kaplan provided few specifics about how the deficit would be cut in half."

Case closed.

Goldilox

(12/15/2003; 15:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113537)

Coin Recycling

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/23093/story.htmHONG KONG/LONDON - A pocketful of centimes or pfennigs won't get you far in Europe these days, but in China they might just be worth their weight in nickel.

Such is China's voracious appetite for raw materials to feed its rapidly growing economy, that the country is snapping up the obsolete coins and melting them down for their metal content.

The Asian giant, with booming construction and automobile sectors, is scouring the globe for every piece of scrap metal it can lay its hands on - and France is one country that has a ready supply of much-sought-after nickel-containing coins.

"The stainless steel producers can just put them (the coins) into their furnaces as nickel feed," said a trader in China, who added the coins are often tendered by French suppliers.

"The shipments are usually packed 500 to 1,000 tonnes per lot," another Chinese trader said.

China's stainless steel demand is predicted to rise to four million tonnes next year from 3.4 million in 2003, analysts said.

Stainless steel, of which nickel is a key component, is a versatile metal used in construction. It also finds its way into cars, appliances and kitchenware.

CENTIMES IN DEMAND

An official at France's mint told Reuters China had been a major buyer of French coins since they were replaced by euros as the country's legal tender almost two years ago.

The old 50-centime coin, almost 100 percent nickel, is proving particularly popular in China, where it is bought as scrap to supplement tight supplies of the main raw material, refined nickel.

Christian de Barrin, spokesman for the Brussels-based European Copper Institute (ECI), estimated around 260,000 tonnes of old European coins would be recycled by 2005 from the beginning of last year.

Germany, the region's largest coin user, had almost 79,000 tonnes of old marks and pfennig coins. But like most other EU countries, it sold most within 18 months of the euro's launch.

France had around 43,000 tonnes of old coins and still retains a large portion of this total, the ECI said.

Goldilox:

These Chinese are sure industrious. They even recycle old European money. How long until the US "plug" nickel is worth more than the US dollar?

Cometose

(12/15/2003; 15:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113538)

OMEN

todays action on the three major indexes came as a shock ; and it looks like a very bad omen ....that the girls and boys at the network news channels could not get a party going today is extremely uncharacteristic of the markets....Markets turn on events.....sometimes....The fact that the market treated the capture of Sadaam Hussein as a non event...may be a signal that we are now in for the long overdue resumption of bear market slidings......TALLY HO!!!

misetich

(12/15/2003; 16:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113539)

Trizec - Barrick - Munk

http://www.globeandmail.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031213/RREGUL13//?query=barrickSnip:

Peter Munk, the chairman of Trizec Properties and Barrick Gold, has a forceful temper; everyone knows that. He will fly into a rage when he feels wronged by a journalist or an analyst. But, with the help of a steady PR man or two, he usually calms down. When you run big public companies that occasionally disappoint investors, you've got to take your lumps.
......................
Then things got truly ugly. On the conference call, Mr. Litt said he believed "the fundamental problem is that Mr. Munk continues to control the board of the company . . ."Mr. Litt's Aug. 1 note echoed his conference call statements. He cited the "complete absence" of corporate governance at Trizec and wondered why the company's overhaul would be allowed to perpetuate Mr. Munk's control "in an era of heightened scrutiny on corporate governance." The analyst promised to send his observations to Eliot Spitzer, the New York Stock Exchange and the regulators. The shares kept falling and bottomed early this year at $8.11 They're now just above $15.

Mr. Litt's dramatic reversal on Trizec needs some explaining. If, as he said, corporate governance was the trigger, why didn't he raise a ruckus before? By then, the REIT prospectus, which contained all the details of Mr. Munk's voting stranglehold on the company, had been out for four months (and was hardly a secret beforehand). Why did he maintain the $18 target on July 31, after the dismal results came out, only to shave it to $8 the next day? True, Mr. Litt nailed the price slide, but threatening to call in Mr. Spitzer and the regulators might have helped to spook investors (Mr. Litt never made good on his threat).

Mr. Munk's defamation suit seeks $40-million in damages. He won't have an easy time in court, whether it's in Canada or the United States, if only because Citigroup will argue that the investors who followed Mr. Litt's advice spared themselves substantial losses. But that's not the point. The point is whether painting Mr. Munk as a corporate governance monster was a criticism too far.
*****************
Misetich

Whilst the lawsuit cited above does not affect Barrick - it must be noted that Mr. Munk reputation is being tarnished....

Snip from article

Then things got truly ugly. On the conference call, Mr. Litt said he believed "the fundamental problem is that Mr. Munk continues to control the board of the company . .

End of snip

Misetich

It is worthwhile noting that Mr. Munk and not the current CEO of Barrick announced the end of gold hedging at Barrick...
thus the fundemental problem that the Citigroup analyst, referred to in the Citigroup case is also applicable to Barrick

ANOTHER snip from the article

"He cited the "complete absence" of corporate governance at Trizec and wondered why the company's overhaul would be allowed to perpetuate Mr. Munk's control "in an era of heightened scrutiny on corporate governance.""

End of Snip

Mr. Litt, of Citigroup, never made good on his threat to report Mr. Munk and Trizec to Elliot Spitzer...however ...his critique of Mr. Munk and "the complet absence " of corporate governance, in an era of heightened scrutiny on corporate governance, more than implies that Mr. Munk method operandi is illegal and out of bounds.

How is this related to Gold?

Barrick the mega hedger, has been accused of being the "front" for the price manipulation of gold...

Would it stand to reason that Mr. Munk would apply the same alleged corrupt method operandi in Trizec with Barrick?

Barrick has several lawusits, pending ranging from the Bre-Ex fiasco to the Blanchard, to private investors...

The noose is getting tighter on individuals that keep on defying corporate governance and in the process defrauding investors of their hard earned cash

...we'll stay tuned on Mr. Munk and Barrick the megahedger

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/15/2003; 16:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113540)

Page Update!

misetich

(12/15/2003; 17:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113541)

Placer Dome Updates Production Guidance in Advance of Investor Meeting

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031215/to104_1.htmlSnip:

Full year cash costs are expected to be slightly above the company's previous guidance at about $220 per ounce primarily due to continued US dollar weakness against most major currencies. Full year capital expenditures are expected to be $245 million, in line with previous guidance.
**************
Misetich

ANOTHER megahedger warns of higher production costs, primarily blaming foreign currencies flactuations.

..on December 2nd, 2003 Place Dome confirmed its hedging policies

Placer Dome: Still Committed To Stated Hedging Policy

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031202/1558001333_1.html

Incredible...the stubberness of management at the helm of this megahedgers...According to the article on Yahoo wires..
"
At the end of September, Placer's gold sales program stood at 10.4 million ounces, excluding 800,000 ounces acquired from East African Gold Mines"

..if my calculations are correct that is over 344 tons of gold... which has been sold short by Placer - roughly 3 years production

Megahedgers such as Place and Barrick have a HUGE problem in their hands...

Share investors were given little protection and negative returns when gold prices was being driven down, thanks to the overabundane of supply that Anglogold, Barrick, Placer etc dumped during Gold's bear market

...and share investors of Barrick and Placer have been denied full participation in gold's ascending prices

Barrick and Placer investors perhaps should ponder the concept of protecting themselves further and BUY PHYSICAL GOLD instead

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Toolie

(12/15/2003; 18:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113543)

White-collar job exports on the rise

http://www.news14charlotte.com/content/local_news/?ArID=48769&SecID=2
Snips:
Nearly two-thirds of the largest companies headquartered in the Carolinas -- 17 of 27 -- say they have sent computer tasks abroad, mostly to India, The Observer reported Sunday.

Charlotte-based Bank of America eventually expects to employ about 1,000 people at the center it plans in India. Family Dollar has programmers in India modifying sales software.

Supporters say the move abroad saves billions, gets work done faster, resolves labor shortages and frees U.S. employees for more creative work. Critics say it's eroding the middle class and wiping out America's future.

The white-collar exodus could put more than 10 percent of the U.S. work force -- more than 14 million Americans -- at risk of losing jobs to foreign workers, according to a study by the University of California at Berkeley.

Senn said SCANA saves about 40 percent over the cost of doing the work in-house. "I didn't think it would work. It's part of our strategy now," he said.

Comment: After spending tens of thousands on an education, a US tech worker can either compete with a foreign cost of living or be freed up for more creative work. Look for extra fancy, high tech greetings next time that you visit Wal-Mart.

I suppose that if the US wanted to be competitive in computer programming the Dollar would have to fall by another 40%. Prediction: Many sour faces at OPEC meetings.

TownCrier

(12/15/2003; 18:15:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113544)

HEADLINE: Euro Hits All-Time High Against Dollar

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=601&feed=ap§ion=news≠ws_id=ap-d7vf2va00&date=20031215&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwNEW YORK (AP) � The euro hit a fresh all-time high of $1.2325 Monday, as the euphoria surrounding the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein over the weekend quickly wore off.

The 12-nation currency beat its previous record of $1.2297, set Friday, as it continued its climb that has taken it nearly 17 percent higher against the U.S. currency this year.

..."This is typical of the pattern we've seen," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist at UBS in Stamford, Conn. "The dollar moves up briefly when we get some good news and then it slows down. It is part of the ongoing adjustment of the dollar."

------(from url)------

There is one other part of the article that many of the monetary-minded here can sink their teeth into. It goes as follows:

>>--------Peter Morici, professor of international business at the University of Maryland, blamed the record trade deficit with China and that nation's resistance to letting the yuan trade freely against others world currencies.
+
"Until the Europeans and the U.S. formulate a joint strategy to unpeg the (Chinese) yuan substantially � about 40 percent because it has been pegged for so long that it is grossly out of adjustment � the situation will not change," he said.----------<<

A quick and dirty way to see this, from another angle, is that the Chinese have actually embraced the dollar as a reserve currency to the ultimate degree, doing the IMF-system proud and absorbing dollars like a black hole.

And what have we here... "Uncle," says the system to it's model participant? It becomes a path of no return if the system is formulating a strategy to try to impress upon its top student a vision of the ultimate harm of its dollar-holding ways.

By a natural extension of rationale, you are left with gold atop the reserve asset hit parade, for Mother Nature will not balk at the long term effect it may have on her balance of trade position from gold "currency" gaining in international exchange value as a result of follow-through of a system being intelligently retooled.

Bottom line: Change is good -- if you're prepared for it.

Contact the sales staff at Centennial this week to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you.

R.

RAP

(12/15/2003; 19:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113545)

TownCrier

Does Daniel Katzive's statement mean the dollar has to go down 40%?

Toolie

(12/15/2003; 19:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113546)

The grumpy economist checks in.

http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc121203.pdfSnip:
In recent days the CRB futures price index has climbed to highs not seen since 1984. It is
not just energy prices that are driving the CRB futures index higher. Copper prices are at
six-year highs and agricultural commodity prices are moving up, too. And then there is the
price of gold, which has risen to a level of $410 an ounce � the highest since 1996. Why are
commodity prices rising and will they continue to do so?
��
Will a declining dollar continue to support higher commodity prices? I believe so. As
mentioned above, the Fed has sent a strong signal that it does not intend to raise the funds
rate above the U.S. consumer or producer inflation rate. So, global investors earn a
negative inflation-adjusted rate of return on their money market investments in U.S. dollar
terms. This detracts from the demand for dollars. Although business investment is picking
up in the U.S., aggregate demand continues to be dominated by household and government
spending. This composition of aggregate demand does not lend itself to a future rising
standard of living for Americans. Thus, there will be political pressure put on the Fed to
inflate in order to ease the real burden of debt on Americans in the coming years. Global
investors typically do not seek out debt that will be paid back in a currency with declining
purchasing power. I conclude, then, that the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in its foreign
exchange value.
In sum, I believe that a major bull market in commodities is underway.
(End snip)

Noone is going to make the call for you. (800) 869-5115
Gold- It's not just for insurance anymore

Waverider

(12/15/2003; 22:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113547)

Puplava; Market Wrap-Up

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm"Historian Roy Jastrum described gold as the "golden constant" because it always maintained its ability to buy a basket of goods. Throughout all of history during good and bad economic times, it always preserved its purchasing power. Gold is the only money that isn't someone else's liability. From biblical times through the present day, gold has acted as the ultimate currency -- the currency of last resort. Pharaohs, kings, emperors, prime ministers, presidents and central bankers have tried to tamper with its value. Despite their best efforts, its value has remained constant throughout all of history."

Waverider: A nice overview of the fundamental reasons to buy Gold - a recommended read for anyone lurking out there in cyberspace who may be sitting on the fence wondering about making a move into Gold.

Druid

(12/15/2003; 22:18:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113548)

Gold, Hard Currency Reserves Top $70Bln

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/12/15/047.htmlSnip

"Hard currency and gold reserves hit fresh highs last week and look set to rise by at least another $2 billion by the end of the year, thanks to booming oil exports and many people switching their savings into rubles, economists said Thursday.

Forex and gold reserves soared by $2.5 billion to $70.6 billion as of Dec. 5 from $68.1 billion the week before, when reserves rose $1.9 billion, exposing an underlying upward pressure on the ruble.

The reserves, which enhance the country's creditworthiness, have risen by $5.8 billion since the arrest of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, signaling that a buoyant oil export boom is helping to outweigh any capital flight that might have occurred.

"One factor is high global crude prices, but I think that many businesses were scared by rough actions of authorities and chose to sell dollars to pay their tax liabilities and reduce outflow of capital," said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov at Troika Dialog.

Khodorkovsky, the former chief executive of Yukos, was arrested in late October on fraud and tax evasion charges, spreading concerns that authorities may launch a broad-based attack on business.

Economists noted that dollar weakness on global markets and fast depreciation against the ruble were also encouraging more people to start shifting their savings away from the dollar, thus further strengthening the ruble."

Druid: Man! More dollar trouble.

Black Blade

(12/15/2003; 22:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113549)

Toolie � Commodities, the US dollar, and Export of US Jobs

While waiting to do some work with a client today I had some free time to read an article on the decline of the US dollar and though it was in a professional journal relating to energy (hydrocarbons), it did discuss in some degree the decline of the dollar against the major currencies ("competitive currency devaluation" or "currency war") and especially went into discussion of the US dollar decline against the currencies of the natural resource rich nations. Curiously it did not even discuss the Yen. But then the Yen is a joke as far as the currency markets are concerned so why bother � right? Besides, Japan has no significant natural resources to speak of. The article was an October issue and the focus was that several oil producing nations were concerned that oil priced in US dollars was a growing problem and there serious discussion that exploited natural resources should be priced in Euros. You mentioned copper and as the major producers are in the Andean region of South America and a few other regions including SE Asia, the concerns there are just as real. By the way, the currency with the greatest gain in the last three years � is gold (OK, the precious metals sector as a whole).

Even in the US the price of agricultural products are rising higher. As a side note � the BLS has a nice "manipulative" measure to make it appear that agricultural prices (actually prices of all goods) are declining when they really aren't. For example if the price of beef rises, then the BLS assumes that the populace will buy chicken or some other cheaper substitute instead � therefore food prices are not rising. This is a common method of "data massage" that they use. Deceptive and unethical as Arthur Andersen's "creative accounting"? Of course it is, but that's how these people (I use the term loosely) think. You are right on target!

Oh yeah, IBM announced yesterday that 4,700 software-programming jobs will be exported to India. As I said before, anyone thinking of a career in High Tech � think again. The only secure jobs in the US (besides working directly for the government) are in the medical and teaching sectors (there may be a few others but these stick out in my mind at the moment. It's not going to get any better either as highly educated work forces abroad are cheap and most highly educated US workers are no longer viable. The US dollar must weaken just to compete in the new global economy as the Japanese have learned. I expect at least another 30-50% depreciation in the US dollar index (at a minimum). $500-$600 gold by the end of next year and well in excess of $1200 or more by the end of the decade in my book. It may be much more but it depends on how quickly the pace of the dollar decline accelerates and the measures used to slow the inevitable downward spiral as we have passed "the point of no return" as far as the "twin deficits" are concerned. I suspect that Japan and China will be left holding the bag (of vastly devalued US interest-bearing debt). At least China is liberalizing their gold market for individuals with a tradition of saving in hard assets and the banks are buyers of gold while Japanese citizens are buying gold too, that nation's banks are insolvent. It should be an interesting decade. Anyone without at least a modest holding of portfolio insurance will be "left holding the bag" so to say.

- Black Blade

Druid

(12/15/2003; 22:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113550)

Bush Changing Views on Putin

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A62533-2003Dec13?language=printer
Snip

President Bush, who publicly credited Russian President Vladimir Putin just 10 weeks ago for promoting freedom and democracy, has protested to the Russian leader since then for moving in the opposite direction, according to senior U.S. officials.

Bush and his foreign policy team have begun to question Putin's intentions -- and their own approach -- after the abrupt imprisonment of Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and parliamentary elections derided by European monitors as an unfair government-orchestrated triumph.

"Suddenly a real debate has emerged, first on the margins in Washington and then within the administration," said Michael McFaul, a Russia scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who keeps in close touch with policymakers. "Earlier assumptions about Putin are now being reassessed."

At this point the shift on Putin carries minimal practical weight. Confronted with Putin's campaign against the independent news media, his targeting of influential businessmen and his brutal war for control of Chechnya, Bush has confined his response to expressions of displeasure, officials said.

Druid: This is certainly interesting. China is getting a lot of press these days but Russia still maintains some advanced and interesting toys. Interesting indeed.

Black Blade

(12/15/2003; 23:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113551)

Townie - The Golden Chalk Board

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_index.html
I did not notice this feature before. You do surprise me on occasion. Some nice features there. The new article (June 2003) is interesting. Now how did I miss this link? Thanks,

Black Blade

Black Blade

(12/15/2003; 23:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113552)

Market Wrap Up � Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Yes Lady Waverider � Puplava is uncanny about the hard assets once again. Tonight is especially good and worth reading:

Snippit:

Much of the world's financial history is a tale of abuse of paper currencies by governments. Money--whether in currency or bullion form--is supposed to be a medium of exchange that remains a store of value. Unfortunately, the minute that governments begin to tamper with the value of a currency, it is no longer a store of value, nor can it be properly maintained as a reliable unit of account in commerce. When governments abuse this power, they inflate their currency and risk, thereby making it worthless. When they tamper with its value, they risk the loss of public confidence in the currency. When that transpires, the value of the currency collapses. Once confidence is lost, it isn't easily regained.

Gold is Real Money

The first constant to understand about gold is that it represents real money. At a time when central bankers around the globe are pursuing policies of currency debasement, gold represents the ultimate refuge and safe haven from monetary debasement. Gold is money and the only money that is durable, portable and divisible. When you own gold or any precious metal you own real money that can't be debased. It is the ultimate currency.
The ability of gold to protect its owners from the confiscatory polices of government can be seen in the two graphs below of the dollar and gold. While the value of the dollar has lost 27% of its purchasing power as measured against other currencies, the price of gold has risen 60% protecting its owners from the ravages of monetary inflation.

Gold and Silver Train Wreck

In "Gold Deposits, Exploration Realities, and the Unsustainability of Very Large Gold Producers", geologist H.R. Bullis argues that these very large producers are unlikely to discover or acquire new gold deposits of sufficient size to allow them to replace extracted reserves. Today's new gold discoveries are predominantly in the 0.5 to the 2.0 million ounce range. Although new discoveries continue to be made, they are not of the size that would allow today's large producing companies to maintain production at the present pace. Many of the large gold producers have increased production, but that has been due to the merging or acquisition of other companies. The size of annual production and the short mine life of these companies presents a particular problem for these companies going forward that can't be solved completely by acquiring other companies.

Black Blade: Precisely so! I have addressed the issue of gold and silver as "portfolio insurance" but also that production decline is inevitable. The lag time involved in opening new mines runs 5-7 years on average even before the actual mining begins and then some time longer before the precious metals are actually produced. The costs to open a new mine are exceptionally high cost and fewer smaller miners are left to meet the acquisition needs of the majors. Still, few are actively exploring for new deposits and the "easy pickins" ("low hanging fruit"?) have already been discovered. As demand and the population grows � gold and silver becomes rarer by the day. And with the US dollar declining the anti-dollar (gold and silver) has been especially good "portfolio insurance" for those with the foresight to protect themselves.

Goldilox

(12/16/2003; 00:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113553)

Golden Chalkboard

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_index.htmlOK Randy, BB spilled the beans. I've bookmarked the chalkboard, so no fair hiding it now.

Goldilox

(12/16/2003; 00:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113554)

Daily Reckoning

snippit:

"We have been watching the stock market rise...and the dollar fall...for the last few months. It all seemed so gentle, so sweet. As if breaking records in new debt, in federal deficits, in trade imbalances and bankruptcies made no difference whatsoever. Somehow, it would all turn out all right, like a romantic comedy with a happy ending. America's incredible trade deficit might be resolved by a lower dollar...the stock market might rise steadily, in keeping with corporate profits...and the economy - isn't it already in recovery? The lumps could leave the theater with light hearts and empty heads.

Hmmm...

And now Saddam has been captured. Now, the way is clear to build a model democracy in Iraq. Heck, if it works, we might try to import it back to Washington."

Goldilox:

Geeez. . . no wonder Bill Bonner isn't invited to comment on CNBC? Who does he think he is? The Dixie Chicks?

Didn't we aready try that in Japan a few decades back? I can see the writing on the wall - Bagdhad Bed and Breakfast on Park Avenue . . . $500/night

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/16/2003; 00:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113555)

Order by this WEDNESDAY (December 17th) to ensure timely shipping! Put a Gleam in Your Season!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Stumped?
This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold.
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Avoid the holiday rush.
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of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and
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Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and
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as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!

Omega gold jewelry

Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(12/16/2003; 01:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113556)

PROPHECY OF FR. ANDREW WINGATE 7/18/03

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/bbs/message.php?message=234907∓age=1⊤ic=3&showdate=12/16/03&PHPSESSID=bb4bede2c4fc278c67bf5719579b119aMK & Admin, please delete this post if you find it inappropriate:

Prophecy From Andrew Wingate
Given on Coast To Coast Am July 18, 2003

Editor�s Note: This is a partial transcript only. Some items are paraphrased. Direct quotes are noted appropriately.

Bio: Father Andrew Wingate is the founder of the "Oblates of St. Therese" which is part of the North American Old Roman Catholic Church (Utrecht Succession.) Father Wingate is a trumpeter of the apocalypse and a messenger of the end times, which he claims we are in the middle of right now. Though he considers himself to be an outcast from the traditional branch of Catholicism, he has performed frequent exorcisms, even working with Father Malachi Martin in one case where he says they worked on 15 possessed people simultaneously. A believer in "end times," Wingate�s website is called The Trumpeter�s Mission.
.
.
.
Wingate: "I don�t have to because it�s not me. I�m just the messenger. They can condemn me all they want. My first message is obey God. Obey God as best you can.

"They next thing is love your neighbor. Put your neighbor first. If society will do that, all this course, everything can be changed. You want to know how much Evil is in control of the world? Watch the gold market. You�ve got that sponsor that says gold will go up to $700? Well, it�s going to go up to $900 --

Noory breaks in: "$900 ????"

Wingate: "Yes, it will go over $900 in about 11-1/2 to 14 months. But you know what? It�s going to spike up and down, up and down. This is a completely contrived circumstance and event, and it�s going to WIPE OUT a multitude of people. It�s going to wipe �em out. I predicted in 1988 that --"

Noory: "Well, not if we get out at $800--"

Goldilox

(12/16/2003; 05:14:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113557)

Forbes on Squawk Box

Steve Forbes, Editor and CEO of Forbes Magazines just compared the FED "liquidity" action to the practice of "suppressing natural forest fires, only to get a larger conflagration later - after the election, of course."

Kernan expressed surprise, saying"You think that interest rates are 'artificially' low?"

"Of course," replied Forbes.

Topaz

(12/16/2003; 05:28:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113558)

Paper Dollar and Paper Gold.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?d=LOW&go.y=13&r=&p=D&b=line&s=dx1%21&s=gc1%21&s=fvxy&s=tyxy&go.x=12&v=Apart from the odd spikes, PoG has continued to mirror the Dollars movements of late...as you would expect when comparing like for like.
REAL Gold action is for ANOTHER time...

Cavan Man

(12/16/2003; 06:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113559)

WAC

George Washington was a Catholic and had many Jesuits in his cabinet? Hello; anybody home?

Boilermaker

(12/16/2003; 07:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113560)

Mike Bolser Editorial

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/bolser121703.htmlsnip
"In previous work I drew attention to the link between the rapid growth of interest rate derivatives [IRDs] at Chase and Morgan subsequent to an unprecedented gold market preemptive selling episode in 1996. This report will further explore the likely interventional reasons behind this extreme interest rate derivatives growth. In addition, an important 1998 Federal Reserve consultant's publications that describe exact methodology needed to enforce the government's long-term interest rate policies are reviewed. Also the report shows preliminary evidence that since Summer 2003 the long interest rates appear to be under the controlling influence of those Federal Reserve policies. Finally, issues threatening the gold and interest rate interventional operations of the Federal Reserve are briefly discussed."

comment; Mike offers a wealth of analysis and evidence to support the theory of long term interest rate/bond market control. I miss his presence here at the Forum.
Boilermaker

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 08:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113561)

Catholics? @ CM

Just got home and probably needless to repeat to you - I'm one too - Catholic, that is. And what's more I've spent my 8 years of secondary school at a Jesuit boarding school (Collegium Kalksburg) next to Vienna. Tough proposition for a young and already free spirit.
BTW -Nice little extra financing announced by SK for the Goat Window (Mill Creek), the potential key to PDG's recent successful exploration on Cortez Hills and ET Blue.

@Boilermaker - same thoughts about Mike Bolser. He's a real pro and has nailed the hedonic market manipulation par excellence. Have had the priviledge to meet up with him and discuss his theories at N.O. Makes a lot of sense and I'm in his camp since.

Best regards to all - cb2

PS: MK, pls forgive my little straying from the trail, though, as it seems, I'm a bit incorrigible, if not outright infamous already.

phil288

(12/16/2003; 08:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113562)

Alaskans have a quirky sense of humor!

Just heard a radio spot adv. for Rent-A-Wreck. Person identified as Alan Greenspan extoling the economic benefits of their product / service. Is this ironic or what? Got gold!

Cavan Man

(12/16/2003; 09:00:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113563)

@CB (too)

USAG113556Yes, agree on Mill creek real estate; it's the old location thing always. IMA believer.

If you check out WAC's link you'll note the reference to GW being a Catholic and his cabinet....Jesuits. That's a pretty incredible statement. I've spent most of my life as a RC and also had some Jesuit education.

"All sensible men have the same religion.....and sensible men never tell (which)"

Winston Churchill

admin

(12/16/2003; 09:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113564)

News & Views

mikal

(12/16/2003; 10:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113565)

@Topaz

Re: "REAL gold action is for ANOTHER time." Many here and myself agree.
I understand the dollar tends to mirror gold in reverse.
What are some of the OTHER keys elements in the bull market's progress in the next year? Thanks and Best Regards

Goldilox

(12/16/2003; 10:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113566)

Dollar vs. euro news

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHey Townie -

This is what I call "comprehensive reporting".

Dollar edges up vs euro after strong U.S. data - Forbes 10:20

followed directly by:

Dollar hits record low vs. euro in Europe - SILive 10:20

Goldilox:

No one can accuse you of biased news posting!!!!

Nomad

(12/16/2003; 11:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113567)

George Washington and Religion (OT)

http://www.virginiaplaces.org/religion/religiongw.html
Washington gives us little in his writings to indicate his personal religious beliefs. As noted by Franklin Steiner in "The Religious Beliefs Of Our Presidents" (1936), Washington commented on sermons only twice. In his writings, he never referred to "Jesus Christ." He attended church rarely, and did not take communion - though Martha did, requiring the family carriage to return back to the church to get her later.

When trying to arrange for workmen in 1784 at Mount Vernon, Washington made clear that he would accept "Mohometans, Jews or Christians of any Sect, or they may be Atheists." Washington wrote Lafayette in 1787, "Being no bigot myself, I am disposed to indulge the professors of Christianity in the church that road to heaven which to them shall seem the most direct, plainest, easiest and least liable to exception."

steady

(12/16/2003; 11:36:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113568)

buy the bid sell the ask

buy during the us market cause there are sellers, sell during the asian market cause there are buyers. simple yet effective startegy to make fiat to buy more gold to buy the bid and sell the ask day after day as long as they want to perpetuate the fraud in the market place.

got gold?

more importantly got stategies to mine gold/silver without getting dirty/tired/frustrated and staying out of the elements at all times?
i do. There are many ways to mine using the technology of the 21st centuary.

gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

Agingfast

(12/16/2003; 12:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113569)

boilermaker - Re: Mike Bolser Editorial

Attempts to attribute increases in the DJIA to increases in the Fed's repo pool are meaningless if those calculations fail to include the issuance of large new offerings of Treasury securities on dates coinciding with the repo increases. As pointed out previously, the major ongoing use of repos is to offset the reserve drain resulting from the ongoing rise in currency in circulation (triggered by the public, not by the government) but the Fed also makes repo arrangements available to provide dealers with temporary financing to help with large new offerings of Treasury securities -- which obviously would have become more necessary and frequent as the recent large federal budget deficits appeared.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/16/2003; 13:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113570)

Page Update!

Leigh

(12/16/2003; 14:04:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113571)

Dollar Hits ANOTHER New Low Against Euro

That's the title of a Drudge story. Haven't I heard rumors somewhere that he's a goldbug...might he be a fan of our own ANOTHER?

Clink!

(12/16/2003; 14:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113572)

Colloidal silver

http://www.silver-colloids.com/Reports/reports.htmlI have been hearing reports about the use of silver as a form of 'natural' antibiotic, and I thought that I would look further into it. A casual google search turned up 130,000 hits, so there is a lot of information out there, both positive and negative. While I haven't seen anything that would indicate it is actually toxic, it would seem that a/ colloidal silver can cover a number of different things, particularly in an unregulated industry and b/ there is a non-negligible risk that you will turn grey - permanently !

The link above gives a summary of some of the types and their effects, which, on the face of it, seems fairly straightforward. Unfortunately, one of the compounds which they say won't give you argyria is exactly the one which gave it to a Stan Jones (Montana senatorial candidate).

I'm not a doctor, so the only advice I can give is that I would be EXTREMELY wary about taking these dietary supplements.

C!

Paper Avalanche

(12/16/2003; 14:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113573)

Inflation at 38 Year Low

http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/63342|top|12-16-2003::14:26|reuters.htmlInsert joke here.........

The bigger the lie, the more people believe it.

As long as you don't consider food, education, energy, housing, healthcare or services "inflation" (actually inflation is defined as the increase in the money supply and not the subsequent affect on prices) is non-existant.

People who live their lives simply believing the nice people on TV and not taking it upon themselves to educate themselves deserve that which is foisted upon them. They are seen simply as labor inputs / chattel property by the banking elite. I am beginning to think that the bankers may not be too far off.

PA

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 15:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113574)

If You Say So @ Sir Agingfast

Re: Mike Bolser Editorial...and you've said:

"Attempts to attribute increases in the DJIA to increases in the Fed's repo pool are meaningless if those calculations fail to include the issuance of large new offerings of Treasury securities on dates coinciding with the repo increases".

May I, respectfully ask since when you followed M. Bolser? As repo offerings replacements are now almost daily recurrences ...

... and there's still a reserve drain, as can be seen in M3 data ...

"As (you)pointed out previously, the major ongoing use of repos is to offset the reserve drain resulting from the ongoing rise in currency in circulation (triggered by the public, not by the government) but the Fed also makes repo arrangements available to provide dealers with temporary financing to help with large new offerings of Treasury securities -- which obviously would have become more necessary and frequent as the recent large federal budget deficits appeared".

... and isn't there the other problem, called current account (or trade) deficit, which is not anymore offset by other nations savings at all costs? ...
And may I respectfully ask again, what is going to replace other peoples savings? Not repos, really, as you've said, though it might be worth a try for the sly. And it worked for a while (like Wiley the Coyote - suspended in midair-ha!)... Uh, I really mean the US dollar - Kaplunk!

Cink has a much more beleovolent tone to it - listen to a gold coin - CLINK - almost christmassy ... cb2

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 15:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113575)

- That's benevolent -

@ Sir Agingfast ... should reread my mistypings - sorry -
and learn to type and much more - anyway.
cb2

Boilermaker

(12/16/2003; 15:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113576)

Agingfast- Mike Bolser Editorial

The Bolser Editorial/Article that I referenced did not talk about Repo's influence on DJIA. You should read it and then comment. I am not convinced of the Repo-DJIA linkage either but think it's worth pursuing. Mike has a talent for finding grain in all the statistical chaff that gets published.
Boilermaker

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 15:29:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113577)

"As We Go Marching" (by Byron King)

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=3625 ... Well, after reading this, to say the least, interesting piece, I've got to re-invent my thoughts about US solicitors, lawyers or is it consiglieres.

... and as the S....'s go marching on ... cb2

Boilermaker

(12/16/2003; 15:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113578)

Mike Bolser Works

I might add that Mike must spend many hours churning all that data which he freely shares with the gold bug community. His contributions are appreciated by this goldbug.
Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/16/2003; 15:43:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113579)

China Works to Improve Trade Imbalance

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=3&u=/dowjones/20031216/bs_dowjones/200312160523000552snippit:

"The measures comprise upgrading the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade to ministerial level, rescheduling "buy American" trade missions and toughening up China's intellectual property rights laws, the officials said.

Details of the measures follow this month's visit by Premier Wen to the U.S. in which he promised to take steps soon to improve the bilateral trade balance.

During his visit, his first since becoming Premier in March, Wen stressed increasing trade volumes between the two countries rather than erecting barriers was the best strategy to reduce a trade gap estimated to swell to $36.125 billion
in 2003.

As part of the decision to raise the standing of the U.S.-China joint
commission, Vice Premier Wu Yi, a former trade minister, will meet with U.S. trade envoy Robert Zoellick and U.S. Commerce Minister Donald Evans, a foreign affairs official confirmed.

China suspended its second "Buy American" delegation after the U.S. imposed sanctions last month on some Chinese-made textiles. But that procurement trip is expected to be rescheduled soon, the official said.

The first delegation in November spent more than $36.6 billion to buy U.S.-made automobiles, jet engines and commercial aircraft. China will also lower the bar for convicting counterfeiters and bootleggers as felons, ensuring more jail time for copyright, patent and trademark infringers.

China agreed to improve its intellectual property laws after joining the World Trade Organization two years ago."

Goldilox:

China wants to continue the flow of trade. . . especially as the imbalance allows them to "pick and choose" what they import - heavy industrial, automotive, oil industry equipment, foodstuffs. They're adopting the "win-win" rhetoric of the 90's marketing geeks. Why buy T-bills and other t-paper when they can trade toys and consumer electronics for the machinery to build a first class industrial economy.

Agingfast

(12/16/2003; 15:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113580)

Boilermaker: Did YOU read Bolser's editorial?

The second paragraph under Background refers to "more and more government intervention to sustain...the various asset bubbles (this includes an artificially driven Dow, see Repurchase Agreements and the Dow)" - followed by a link to that article. I assume you agree that the Dow is the DJIA.

Agingfast

(12/16/2003; 16:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113581)

CoBra(too) - Re: Bolser Editorial

When you say "there's still a reserve drain, as can be seen in M3 data," you make it clear that you don't understand the Federal Reserve balance sheet (released each Thursday). Before trying to comment on the Fed's activities you should acquire and read the Fed publication entitled "The Federal Reserve System, Its Purposes and Functions." (And, no, I've never worked for the US government in any capacity except taxpayer.)

Clink!

(12/16/2003; 16:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113582)

almost christmassy @ CB2

I couldn't agree more !

C!

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 16:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113583)

@ Agingfast

Absolutely, correct ... and BTW, I don't even want to know more about these kind of (de-il)lusions - ever again.

Thank you - as I'm aging faster - and Avis tries harder and US is exporting their white collars now, ever faster - see IBM ... and have a merry X-Mas @ China Mart... As I'm less smart - tku - cb2

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 16:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113584)

@ Agingfast ...

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=93093&cftoken=38325355πd=3494I honestly don't understand your stance to lead me to the FED publications. It's probably the last thing I would need.

If you're "intimating" not reading their publications, that may be also true. As true as not to listen to Mr. A.G. in his garbled wisdom of saying nothing of consequence - and I mean AG and not you - as you're probably AF!

Still, you've got to prove your wisdom, Sir, as see only BLS statitics repeated in your responses.

As I've said, please try harder.

Otherwise - no comment (which may be a shame) ... cb2

contrarian

(12/16/2003; 17:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113585)

inflation--paper avalanche how right you are

i just learned today that my health insurance premiums are increasing 15% next year.

And we have 2% inflation! What a bunch of lies!

Dollar Bill

(12/16/2003; 17:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113586)

*>*............+

Nomad, you are wrongly informed when you say "Washington gives us little in his writings to indicate his personal religious beliefs."

One of his most famous is this line; "No people can be bound to acknowledge and adore the invisable hand which conducts the affairs of men more than the people of the United States."
So many Washington religious comments to choose from, hmmm, since the humanists are trying to rewrite the origins of thanksgiving, here is Washington, oct 3 1789, making Thanksgiving an annual national holiday. This is part of his proclamation.
"Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to abey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor, and Whereas both houses of Congress have requested me "to recommend to the people of the United States a day of public thanks-giving and prayer to be observed by the acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for thier safety and happiness."
Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be."

And it doesnt end there !
Nomad, that author had an agenda, and giving you the wrong impression was just exactly his mission.
I have numerous examples of Washington's writing, and they are loaded with this recognition of his that he did not keep secret!

Federal_Reserves

(12/16/2003; 17:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113587)

REPO's/FED

Once the FED deposits REPO money in a NYC money center bank those sneakers can do anything with it. They are hooked into every market in the world. Sure enough, the banks can buy the treasuries and the DOW futures, gold, they can even go short etc..etc..anything they want...in order to move the market in the direction they want. The NYC money center banks
own the Federal Reserve. They set the direction along with the other large transnational corporations which run the global economy. The Federal Reserve doesn't control them, its the other way around folks! The banks and large transnational corporations have monopoly power on money via the their FED and the other G7 syndicate members, and the only other institution with similar power might be OPEC. Like OPEC the FED can control the supply of money better than the demand, and frequently that is where things can go seriously wrong. In the last 4 months we have seen one the largest drops money supply since the depression all this on the back of a large increase in GDP. Wage and salary growth have been abysmal as the large transnationals move to offshore locations. Folks just are depositing big sums in the banks. Some say the big money supply retraction is also due to the large drop in cash out REFI activity, that money is rushing from safe bank deposits into risky stock market, or money is living US banks headed for foreign banks, others say many are living on principal rather than interest income, etc. In any case the real power and strategic planning lies with the banks not the FED.

mikal

(12/16/2003; 17:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113588)

@Dollar Bill, Nomad

Good posts. Basically you're agreeing: Political "religious" dogmas are not the same as basic philosophical and ethical norms and standards of conduct. Christian "religions" alone constitute dozens of major and minor denominations. Washington embraced these and the world's belief systems deemed to be wholly outside the limited code of conduct embraced by King George in that period.
Similarly, he recognized gold and silver in traditional western societies and in those cultures that peacefully traded goods and skills while keeping diverse lifestyles and customs.

Agingfast

(12/16/2003; 17:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113589)

CoBra(too) - Re: refusal to read a very old and basic Fed publication

That's like saying you can be an accountant without reading a book on accounting. To understand Fed repos you have to understand that, year after year, increases in currency in circulation (triggered by the public) are the major factor that ABSORBS, or drains, bank reserves, and that, therefore, year after year, the Fed's acquisition of securities (through outright purchases and through repos) is the essential, major, offsetting factor that SUPPLIES bank reserves. You should also try to understand (reading the book would help) that Required Reserves, reported each Thursday (currently around $41-42 billion), do not apply against all of the deposit accounts (bank LIABILITIES) included in M3 and especially that they do not apply against bank ASSETS. (I suspect you've picked up those latter ideas from the misinformed Mogambo Daughty.)

21mabry

(12/16/2003; 18:11:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113590)

Markets

The amount of liquidity in this economy is incredible.I have to believe its the only reason stocks and gold are both trending higher.I guess the old adage do not fight the FED still rings true.Clink read your post on collodial silver.I do not take it orally or often but a few drops in my nose when I am stuffy clears it right up.I have had success with earaches to using it just a few drops.I am not telling others to use it.Everyone must do their own research and make their decisions.Some companies are doing research on silver as a antibiotic if it works out it could push silver prices higher.21

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 18:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113591)

Too late to answer - to justify any sober response ... to AF

So, just try to be content with my refusal to read any BS of the FED.

...And forget the rest - though, be happy that you've got the real inside track to the B(L)S.

... and don't worry - in particular yours - cb2

PS: Sounds almost like BS - and it may be.
Please, Lord spare me any more BS on the FED
and its great intentions ... ha, as well, as
anyone, who's trying to indoctrinate me to read the
same BS.

PPS: Done that as a banker for much too long.

PPPS: Don't try to make me aging faster-
is enough!

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 18:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113592)

AF - If it's an intellectual battle your looking for- I surrender!

... and as I've stated, you may be a lot smarter, try harder and finally aging faster ... and yes, I'm also reading Richard Daughty, the Mogambo Guru.

Can't say, if I get my ideas exclusively by him; Only find him a lot more entertaining than your BLS posts.

OK, Sir, please read on your Thursday's FED announcements, as will from here on scroll over your fine findings ... Have a merry FED induced repo Christmas ... cb2

PS: CYA 2004 or never ...

Paper Avalanche

(12/16/2003; 18:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113593)

@ CB2

Were you a banker?

Thanks!
PA

Paper Avalanche

(12/16/2003; 18:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113594)

@ CB2 - Just curious..... been studying the nature of banking

and have more questions than answers.

Take care.

PA

CoBra(too)

(12/16/2003; 18:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113595)

PA ... Yes

Seems like eons ago ... and was a trainee in the late 60's at Burnham and then BBH! ... Between Pine and Wall St.- ... and it took me all that time re-learn my lesson ... Maybe, that's why I'm so intolerant ... rant .. rant . cb2

Black Blade

(12/16/2003; 19:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113596)

CB2 - Mogambo Guru, B(L)S, and "Statistical Data Massage"

I have to admit that I have read very little of the Mogambo Guru, however, I do find his commentary amusing and quite humorous as well. It is some of the better comedic economic analyses with his way of putting issues in an entertaining light.

On the BLS I have commented many times in the past on the methodology (including some of the more recent changes) and how the agency "massages" various economic data as well as "abuses" the "art" statistics (at least they methods they employ could be classified as such). Having intimate knowledge and use of statistical analyses myself I cannot fathom how this angency can be taken seriously in their reports (sometimes I have to see the raw data and go through with a "fine-toothed comb" so to speak). I often question the legitamacy of this organization as an impartial agency of defining "fact" vs. "fiction". I have seen statistics systematically abused in industry, non-governmental (NGOs), and academia. However, the BLS are masters of the craft. As one former academic colleague working a "reseach" project with NGO grant monies once told me: "you don't bite the hand that feeds you". I doubt that BLS employees are any different.

Anyway, I must head off to a sparring session after a couple of hours at the gym. This should be an "interesting" topic to catch up on my return later as you guys hash it out.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche

(12/16/2003; 19:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113597)

Thanks CB2

I have been studying the mechanics of modern banking vis-a-vis the Uniform Commercial Code and have a plethora of questions. However, in deference to our gracious host I will save them for another time and another forum.

Happy holidays!

PA

21mabry

(12/16/2003; 19:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113598)

Currency

As the dollar falls against the euro it seems in effect this makes oil cheaper for europe.Oil has to bought in dollars and you are getting more dollars for your euro which in effect makes oil cheaper for europe.If I am correct should not this drive the european economic engine faster the U.S engine.21

Agingfast

(12/16/2003; 19:45:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113599)

CB2, BB

My comments about the mechanics of the Fed balance sheet have nothing to do with the fact that GDP, employment and price-inflation statistics are calculated in bizarre and misleading ways. It appears obvious that with a gullible and greedy public (the Comstock bears said today that $64 billion poured into mutual funds during the last 3 months) the stock market hardly needs any help from the Fed. But if members of this forum want to hand Fed officials a laugh by claiming that the goal of the Fed's open market operations is propping up the DJIA, go ahead.

steady

(12/16/2003; 20:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113601)

war

should have left that one out.

twain rights like that and gets quoted i get booted but its yor perogitve.... boby brown said that lol peace!

Druid

(12/16/2003; 20:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113602)

Agingfast (12/16/03; 19:45:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 113599

"My comments about the mechanics of the Fed balance sheet have nothing to do with the fact that GDP, employment and price-inflation statistics are calculated in bizarre and misleading ways. It appears obvious that with a gullible and greedy public (the Comstock bears said today that $64 billion poured into mutual funds during the last 3 months) the stock market hardly needs any help from the Fed. But if members of this forum want to hand Fed officials a laugh by claiming that the goal of the Fed's open market operations is propping up the DJIA, go ahead."

Druid: Agingfast, propping up the stock market is where the Fed is going to get the most bang for its "dollar/note" by means of a perceived "wealth effect" The "investing" public at large does not understand the bond, currency, derivative, commodity...mkts. but do think they understand the stock market. The money market is where the real war is taking place by players who do understand how this all ties together, whereas, the stock market is where the battle of perception is taking place between John Q public and everyone else that is out to take him.

One of the more snappier lines I've come across from anything that Hollyjoke has come up with in the last twenty years came from the movie Swordfish: "what the eyes see, the ears hear, the mind believes." Man! It doesn't get any clearer then that. There are TWO words the Fed certainly understands and that is CONFIDENCE & PERCEPTION.

Elwood

(12/16/2003; 20:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113603)

Interesting article about gold, the dollar and the euro

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1394
Snip:
"Hence, the value of each currency has fallen constantly during the last 100 years or so. The fact that this has happened at a different pace in different countries explains the long-term movements in the exchange rates. I also would suspect that lately not only the value of the dollar has fallen but also the value of the euro. This follows from the fact that it is the European Central Bank's goal to increase the currency by 4� percent each year and that the Fed implicitly has similar targets. Moreover, the budget deficits of many of the major euro-zone countries are alarming and that of the US even more severe. At the same time, there is not much that points toward any offsetting effects on the real side, either in Europe or in the US�au contraire.

This makes me think that both currencies have continued to fall in value lately. The ultimate proof of this is that the average prices still are rising on both sides of the Atlantic. It is hard to tell which currency is falling faster because of these reasons. However, I don't suspect that the dollar has dropped so much more compared to the euro because of these reasons alone to justify the fall of a third since middle 2001. There must be other reasons as well."

Merry Christmas to everyone at CPM.

Regards,
Elwood

Cavan Man

(12/16/2003; 20:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113604)

BTW....@CB(too)

I'm in (the cups)Denver again tonight and I wish to point out your reference to Wile Coyote is actually, "Wile E.Coyote. Sorry to correct a good friend but I am betting you are also a fan of Foghorn Leghorn? I hope so and me (too)....kind regards from the front range...CM

LeSin

(12/16/2003; 21:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113605)

TWO YEAR NOW PAST SINCE FOA LAST POST

HELLO - FOA!
STILL WATCHING THIS NEW GOLD MARKET, YES?

SEASONS GREETING & GOODWILL TO ALL MANKIND!

CHEERS "S"

Black Blade

(12/16/2003; 22:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113606)

Agingfast, and Cavan Man

Agingfast - I'm sorry if you got the impression I was referring the the actual discussion between you and CB2 per se. I only wished to point out that often one must go to the raw data and run the numbers (if it is available) and if possible run the info/data/etc. against other research/reports if possible. Often what is presented just does not add up an that could be deliberate, oversight or just differring conclusions from different agencies. The BLS is especially atrocious in this regard as far as manipulation of data but then they are not alone. I agree with you on the point that pension plans are a major influx of funds into the equities and bond markets (especially now and into the new year). There is also a lot of repositioning for tax purposes by individuals, funds, and corporations as is also done right after the new year (the famous "January Effect"). There is also the possible influence or organized efforts by financial institutions under the guidance of the Fed and other "official" agencies for short term orderly "management" of the markets under the executive order authorizing the formation of the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets". The specifics of course are not clearly spelled out in the EO but leaves a lot of room for "loose" enterpretation and clears the way for odd activities to "manage" the markets at critical times. The LTCM bailout (overseen by the Fed) was one such instance of where an organized effort was needed to prevent financial meltdown during the Russian Bond debacle. The legalities are perhaps questionable but then stranger things have happened. My only point is when it comes to relying on info from biased agencies (Gov. or NGO) great care must be taken into account. That we are headed into an election year will likely muddy the waters even more.

Cavan Man - Foghorn Leghorn? Doesn't he go by the name Senator Hollings now? Sorry about that, but whenever I hear him speak, Foghorn Leghorn comes to mind. ;-)

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Kev

(12/17/2003; 02:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113607)

Belgian shareholders to pursue central bank claim

BRUSSELS, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Minority shareholders in Belgium's central bank, one of the few central banks in Europe to have a stock listing, plan to pursue their claim to a share in the capital gains earned from the bank's assets, despite having lost an initial court battle.

Deminor, the advocacy group representing the shareholders, said in a statement on Wednesday that it planned to take its case to the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg.

Deminor had filed a lawsuit to overturn a 2002 law that made the bank's foreign currency and gold reserves the property of the Belgian state, which owns 50 percent of the bank.

It argued that the assets ought to be the property of all shareholders in the bank, including private investors. It pointed to the fact that the bank had lost its right to print money to the European Central Bank (ECB) with the introduction of the euro.

But a Brussels court ruled last week that Deminor had misinterpreted the law.

Deminor remained defiant.

"All shareholders, including private shareholders, have an equal and proportional right to share in the bank's profits, including profits deriving from gold and foreign currency reserves," it said.

The bank's stock has risen more than 50 percent since August 2002, when investors began speculating heavily on the possibility of the government buying out the private investors.

On Tuesday, it ended at 3,043 euros in Brussels.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/17/2003; 03:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113608)

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Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 06:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113609)

Gold at $400 seen as a factor in Central Bank pact

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4004067≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketssnippit:

Tue December 16, 2003 05:43 PM ET

CHICAGO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Gold's rise above $400 an ounce takes the heat off central banks to quickly renew a pact that caps bullion sales by the world's richest nations, but will probably have no bearing on whether they increase the annual sales quota, experts said.

Analysts and industry officials said the current five-year deal must be renewed in any event before it expires in September 2004, but there is a bit less urgency to start discussions early in the new year.

"The feeling is that with gold near $410, or above $400, there's less concern the price might fall back if it takes a bit more time to reach an agreement," said a Group of Seven official speaking outside the U.S. and who has been involved in initial gold talks but did not wish to be identified.

The price of bullion rose to $411.70 an ounce this month, its highest in almost eight years, buying central bankers more time to get the widely anticipated discussions rolling.

"They've got plenty of time. I don't think they care," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "Bottom line is that people have this image that central bankers care about gold and I don't think they do."

The original pact, unveiled at International Monetary Fund talks in Washington, D.C. in September 1999, made official government sales more predictable, helping restore market confidence after years of worry about central banks helped push bullion to a 20-year low in August 1999.

It limits total gold sales by the 15 participating nations, all in Europe, to no more than 400 tonnes a year, or 2,000 tonnes over its lifetime.

David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets, said it was unclear to what extent the higher market prices would encourage more countries to join the agreement.

"Their goal is to create a mechanism that allows them to do an orderly liquidation of their reserves without any negative ramifications from producers or consumers," he said. "The tonnage may go up, but if it goes up significantly it's going to have negative consequences for the market."

Countries attending the IMF's annual meeting in Dubai in September briefly discussed the idea of renewing the pact, news that sent spot gold prices to what was then a seven-year high despite talk that a new deal might allow central bank gold sales to rise in stages from 400 tonnes a year.

Bullion then pulled back to the low $370s before breaching the $400 threshold on Nov. 18.

Dutch Central Bank Governor Nout Wellink said at the conclusion of the IMF meeting that talk of renewing the so-called Washington gold agreement would resume only at the beginning of 2004. That gives them almost nine months to hash out who is in and by how much, and if they will increase the sales allowed.

"I think they will do it in like the summer or something, when it's due," Kaplan said. "Central banks want to hold arrows in their quiver, so I think they will wait."

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 07:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113610)

BB - Unintended Consequences of Market-Tampering Claims?

Perhaps the sincere and energetic efforts of some equity market bears aimed at proving that the government is constantly involved in efforts to prop up stock prices (including the use of the Fed's repo pool) ENCOURAGE people to buy stocks by convincing them that "the government won't allow stock prices to fall."

Conversely, perhaps the sincere and energetic efforts of some precious metals bulls aimed at proving that the government is constantly involved in efforts to suppress PM prices DISCOURAGE people from buying gold and silver by convincing them that "the government won't allow PM prices to rise."

If so, then in both cases the govt. gets the benefits of alleged market-tampering activities without having to involve itself in such activities.

otish mountain

(12/17/2003; 07:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113611)

Leonard Kaplan

Either this guy is a complete moron or he has an agenda.

From Goldilox post on Central Bank Pack post #113609

"They've got plenty of time. I don't think they care," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "Bottom line is that people have this image that central bankers care about gold and I don't think they do."

The gold supressors are sure scraping the barrel here.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 07:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113612)

More Insider Trading

IT Announcements Michael Dell (DELL) and Rob McKuen (GG) joined the ranks of CEOs cashing in some more chips.

McKuen exercised and sold 5.25M shares equaling 39% of his holdings.

I didn't see exact numbers for Dell.

Goldilox:

Having lived through a tech IPO in 1999, I know pressure is exerted on executives to exercise and sell on a stated plan in order to set a predictable pace of insider trading. Of course, the execs would prefer to sell it all high, but that battle is often addressed in the board room.

Last numbers I saw showed insider exercise to sell still VERY high in proportion to buying and holding. This is a little skewed by the fact that large options are almost always exercised and sold simultaneously, because they require a huge capital position to exercise in the first place.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 08:01:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113613)

New Bubble

Talking about the IPO of China Life this morning, David Faber just said "Attach China to an IPO and it is perceived as a guaranteed winner." I guess that identifies the latest bubble.

.ch replacing .com?

Paper Avalanche

(12/17/2003; 08:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113614)

Options expiration creating a ceiling at $410?

Let me preface the following question by first disclosing my ingorance of the mechanics of options trading. However, it is my understanding that options expire on the third Saturday of the month. This Saturday is the third of this month. Does anyone with knowledge of futures options trading seem to think that the recent defense of the $410 level is an effort to contain losses that might hit some big players with options exposure above $410?

If I remember correctly, we saw something similar to this a month or so ago around $390. If I also remeber correctly, the week after the options expiration there was a big move up in the price of gold.

One of the main functions (albeit self-appointed) of the Fed / government is to maintain order in markets. Possibly by letting gold rise in increments the big players are givem ample time to unwind positions that would cause financial implosions if not actively managed.

Comments please.

Thanks!
PA

The Invisible Hand

(12/17/2003; 08:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113615)

Goldilox

Okay, insider trading is illegal.
But so what?
What damage is done and to whom by insider trading?

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 08:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113616)

Insider Trading

@IH

You're misunderstanding my post. Insider trading, per se, is certainly NOT illegal, as all executive employee options are considered insider trading. Certain instances of insider trading violate the insider trading regulations. These violations are the specific examples of illegal insider trading, and are what the media is discussing when they talk about [illegal] insider trading.

The insider trading I was referring to was well within the guidelines of legality. They are reported and monitored to ensure their effect is minimal. For the aware investor, trends measured by buy/sell ratios can deliver some hints at management's view of the future of their stock price.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 09:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113617)

Nervous Mutts

@Gandalf:

Did someone bring some "Hannukah Gelt" in to the office today? The boyz look like they've been nipping at chocolates (407-408-407-408). I envision bowls of foil wrapped chocolate coins lying around your office. . . chocolate is BAD for dogs, so you better "eat" the evidence!

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 09:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113618)

ORBITZ

According to CNBC, the CEO of Orbitz has some interesting portfolio insurance. If Orbitz (opening trading today) stock is below the opening price after 30 days, he gets a cool $1M bonus. Should they go belly up, he gets $2.5M bonus severance. Damn, that's a golden parachute!

Knallgold

(12/17/2003; 09:19:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113619)

2 Freudian slips from the (of course)Reuters link by Goldilox

"Kaplan said. "Central banks want to hold arrows in their quiver, so I think they will wait."---Excuse me,but arrows for WHAT???

"The feeling is that with gold near $410, or above $400, there's less concern the price might fall back if it takes a bit more time ..said a Group of Seven official "--- CONCERN THE PRICE MIGHT FALL BACK LOL...ah,wait a minute,if they CONCERN about a)such tight bands of B)prices and C)their "time",its nothing else than a tight managment(=manipulation) of Gold.

And then in the same article comes Kaplan and makes a complete fool of himself "..people have this image that central bankers care about gold and I don't think they do..."

The heat of burning shorts might already started to burn a few grey cells in the antiGold crowd.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 09:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113620)

Changing Lead into Gold

US $ Dx just sank below 98, continuing its historic slide into the netherland. Alex Wallenstein has recent article at the neighbors called "Alchemy: Changing Lead into Gold"

The dollar has certainly exhibited some of the properties of "lead", so call CPM today to "change some lead into gold".

admin

(12/17/2003; 09:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113621)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News! Dollar Bear Is Back.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113622)

Dollar Bears

@MK,

If polar bears are white, are dollar bears green? or is that attribute limited to "dollar holders"? I hear dollar bulls are turning pink with embarrassment.

Clink!

(12/17/2003; 10:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113623)

@ Goldilox

Er, that would be USDX under 88, would it not ?

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113624)

Dollar Implosion

CNBC just showed the graph of $ vs. Yen, saying, "dollar is slightly off its lows, as you can see the alledged BOJ intervention".

They're starting to admit stuff like this. Are they getting smarter, or just playing CYA. If the caca hits the fan, they don't want to get sued for saying "Everything's coming up Roses".

Also, $/Euro has hit another new EURO HIGH this morning.

Can you spell T-O-A-S-T?

Get gold.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113625)

Dollar Implosion

Oops, yes that's USDX <88 (not 98). I'm experiencing some of Sir Steady's typing difficulties today :)

CNBC just showed the graph of $ vs. Yen, saying, "dollar is slightly off its lows, as you can see the alledged BOJ intervention".

They're starting to admit stuff like this. Are they getting smarter, or just playing CYA. If the caca hits the fan, they don't want to get sued for saying "Everything's coming up Roses".

Also, $/Euro has hit another new EURO HIGH this morning.

Can you spell T-O-A-S-T?

Get gold.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113626)

ARRRGGGHHHH!

Typing and click boxes - they're OVERWHELMING me! Sorry for the double post!

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 10:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113627)

Thanks Sir Goldilox, for the info on CANDY !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Goldilox (12/17/03; 09:09:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 113617)
Nervous Mutts
---
NOT TO WORRY, Sir Goldilox !
I have them resting up for the BIG MOVE !
Have you seen the US$ fall off the cliff again ?
Just went throught the ice at 88.0 on the way to the 60's !
SPOT will be moving up soon !!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 10:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113628)

<;-) Sir Goldilox ---

AFTER you master the OPTIONAL LINK box, you will be cured !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113629)

Alternate "Coin" Dealer

http://www.lakechamplainchocolates.com/php/sub_category.php?cat=1⊂cat=96&source=GHO001&C1=PPC&KW=Hannukah_gelt@ Gandalf, Townie

I know that links to other "coin" dealers are strictly verboten, but this is the first link that came up when I searched for "hannukah gelt", and of course it's a little "different" from your product. I'm sure they're not "good as gold", but they sure look tasty!

YUUUMMMM! I think I need to drop offline and go buy some CHOCOLATE!!!!

Townie - No advertising intended, just joking around in the spirit of holiday cheer! OK - back to work!!

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 10:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113630)

OK, Sir Goldilox -- I let SPIKE go ---

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1WAY TO JUMP, SPIKE !
HOW do you like that ACTION ?
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113631)

Go Spikers!

STANDING HIGH JUMP - My favorite event!

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 10:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113632)

$6 limit, not even!!

If you measure from the $406 open, we're close to bashing through the CABAL's $6/day limit. "Go ahead Boyz, MAKE MY DAY!"

Zhisheng

(12/17/2003; 11:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113633)

Steroids

in Gandalf's dog food? Maybe we should do some drug testing here.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113634)

No Drugs - These are Olympic jumping dogs

I think Gandalf slipped him some chocolate!

Let's hit Sinclair's $415 today!

steady

(12/17/2003; 11:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113635)

typing

hay i resmbele dem typin errorrs! lol

serioulsy though, if faith is based upon a soild foundation then how can one have faith in something that is as arbitrary as money?

and if money is not property, then how can one put faith in fiat money when its value is subjective rather than objective?

backed by the full faith and credit of a govt near you ?

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113636)

dollar toast

Dollar just hit 1.24 to the euro.

This year, coffee hit all time lows, and "toast" is falling right in line!

Looking over my recent posts, I better get some breakfast.

(:>) Goldilox

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113637)

The Truth on CNBC!

CNBC just aired a statement by Robert Mondell, a Nobel prize winner called by some "father of the euro". He said that the US trade deficit has been getting out of hand since 1975, and is not just a function of China's growth. He thinks the yuan could revaluate upwards 40% to achieve balance. He also called the US deficits "an accident waiting to happen."

Am I dreaming or just so hungry that I'm delirious?

Got gold?? Even Hillary and the hucksters are talking about the deficits in public.

Zhisheng

(12/17/2003; 11:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113638)

Up into the close!

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1No drop-off like Monday. Looks like another new multi-year high: $410.80.

Jing Zu

(12/17/2003; 11:37:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113639)

They have gone nuts!

http://netscape5.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Bond+ReportDALLAS (CBS.MW) -- Treasury prices added to their gains Wednesday in the previous session's warm response to upbeat economic conditions, though the market lacked clear direction in the absence of fresh data.

******Jing Zu ******

How in the world can people think that we are in an "upbeat" direction? Wow!

Better get some gold if you havn't done so already and then get some more.....

Jing Zu

(12/17/2003; 11:39:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113640)

Sorry....

upbeat economic conditions..... I meant to type...

Wow, getting old...I am...

Sorry...

a nation of one

(12/17/2003; 11:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113641)

re: nobel prize

There is no Nobel Prize in economics. There is "The Bank
of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred
Nobel." But there is no such thing as a Nobel Prize in
economics. It is "The Bank of Sweden Prize...."

Jing Zu

(12/17/2003; 11:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113642)

Conditions.

Maybe the "right conditions" for a fall?

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113643)

Goldcorp loses 4% as CEO sells 40% of his stock

snippit:

VANCOUVER, British Columbia , Dec 17 (Reuters) - Goldcorp Inc. (GG,Trade) ((G.TO)) was the worst performing stock on the Toronto gold board on Wednesday, sliding 4 percent after news that the company's chief executive had sold $28.4 million worth of stock in the Canadian gold producer.

Goldcorp said Rob McEwen, who is also the chairman of the Toronto-based miner, sold 5.5 million of his Goldcorp shares on Tuesday in a sale he said was necessary for his personal financial needs.

The stock sold represents about 39 percent of McEwen's holding in the mid-sized gold producer. It leaves him holding about 8.5 million Goldcorp shares -- about 4.5 percent of all the stock in the company.

Shares listed in Toronto sank as low as C$20.25 but by early afternoon had recovered slightly to C$20.58 -- a loss of 62 Canadian cents, or 3 percent.

"Some people are probably taking the same view as Rob McEwen -- that it is a good time to sell," said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet in New York.

Goldcorp surprised financial markets last week when it announced it was selling its gold stash, built up over two years on the belief that gold is a robust investment and as good as holding cash.

Although the firm said it was already rebuilding its gold stock, analysts said the bullion sale might be interpreted, especially by retail investors, as a signal that Goldcorp believed gold prices have peaked for now.

Goldilox:

Despite Rob's bailing out, gold closes up. If news like this can't hold POG down, the shorts are DEAD MEAT! There is no better indicator of which is stronger, paper or physical.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:46:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113644)

Nobel Prize

They didn't actually say he won a Nobel prize in economics. Hey, they can't get everything right. That would be like bowling a 900 series. It would be time to quit.

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:55:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113645)

McKuen killing

The part I like was the statement that he sold CA$100M in stock for personal needs. What's he buying - Vancouver Island?

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 11:56:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113646)

Sir Goldilox ---

GET something to EAT !
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 11:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113647)

OK - Omelette here I come

You're right. Be back later!

Jing Zu

(12/17/2003; 12:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113648)

Whats this guy smok'in?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Market+Snapshot&%09%09dist=bigchartsJim Paulson, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management, said stocks are pulling back after Tuesday's rally but believes there's still "a lot of potential buying power out there" and predicted another up-year in 2004.

My goodness... What is this world coming to? Chief Investment Officer?

WOW!

a nation of one

(12/17/2003; 12:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113649)

interest in Gold

My sources indicate that Open Interest in December 2004
Gold contracts is approaching 19,000, with more than
eleven months remaining before they expire, and that Open
Interest in the December 2003 Gold contracts only reached
approximately that same level on May 2, 2003, when there
were about eight months remaining until their expiration.
At roughly this same time last year, on December 18, 2002,
Open Interest in the December 2003 Gold contracts was only
about 13,000. The trends of both periods are consistent
with this. I think this difference represents an increase
of around 30%.

Paper Avalanche

(12/17/2003; 12:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113650)

@ Goldilox - RE: McKuen killing

What if you knew that a precipitous rise in gold was in the cards for the very near future (as one might as the CEO of a large gold mining company) and that a possibility existed that gold miners would be nationalized as a result. If that were the case and I were the CEO of GG, I would dump my stock in the company and buy physical.

The news may not be that he sold, but rather what he is buying with the proceeds.... and why he is doing so.

PA

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 12:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113651)

COMEX paper gold REPORT ! A "GOLDEN" day ! <;-)

GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $412.3 low $407.7 SETTLE $412.0
CHANGE +$4.3 Vol = 39 Yesterday's OI = 748

GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $412.8 low $402.6 SETTLE $412.7
CHANGE +$4.3 Vol = 29,703 Yesterday's OI = 195,824

GCZ04 (Dec '04) HIGH $417.5 low $412.8 SETTLE $417.3
CHANGE +$4.3 Vol = 467 Yesterday's OI = 18,999
===
You have very good SOURCES, Sir ANOO !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 12:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113652)

DID everyone hear the ORDERS at just before 8 a.m. ?

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Aboard the USS Dollar, the orders were:
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !!!
It took a while for SPIKE to react, as he slept in today, BUT after he had his ROO MEAT -- WOWSERS !
<;-)

NEMO me impune lacessit

(12/17/2003; 13:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113653)

GOLDILOX

I�ll try to find out if there is a Nobel Prize in "posting".
If there is - You should have it.
I�ll find out next time I�m in Stockholm.

NEMO

Socrates964

(12/17/2003; 13:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113654)

Goldilox

Just because McEwen knows how to mine the stuff, doesn't mean he knows where the price is going. Why should he, since the answer to this question no doubt has more to do with monetary policy than metal fundamentals.

I don't know his mindset, but I imagine that he has seen the stock quadruple. It is relatively expensive within the sector and he probably just wants to take some money off the table having witnessed the rise and fall of dotcom billionaires.

While it is a shame that he has decided to cut and run, I wouldn't want a CEO of a gold company who took massive directional bets on the POG with his company. All I would want would be no hedging and evidence that he was securing the largest amount mineable reserves at the lowest possible price.

As for him having an insider's tip off on possible mine nationalization. I find this hard to believe. Firstly because this would spike gold through the roof given the lack of investment in new production, and secondly, the modus operandi of the current administration in the US suggests that they and their Wall Street friends would be among the most eager to participate in the feeding frenzy that would result from a soaring gold price. Would they pass up such a get rich quick opportunity - don't think so!

Black Blade

(12/17/2003; 13:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113655)

(No Subject)

Gold, silver, and platinum soar along with energy prices as the US dollar plunges against the Euro. It looks like it will be a good finish to the year for the precious metals with next year looking even better.

Jon H. Warner

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/17/2003; 13:48:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113656)

Page Update!

balzac

(12/17/2003; 13:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113657)

3RD SAT OPTIONS VS 4TH MONDAY GOLD PRICES

PAPER AVALANCHEPA , I find your question on 3rd sat. options very intreguing perhaps you have hit on something. Can we back test gold prices on 3rd sat. vs 4th mondays? there may be some statistical significance which would result in monetary significance.

How about it wizards of the web?

Balzac

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 14:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113658)

Declining Demand For Greenbacks

The year-over-year (y-o-y) increase in currency in circulation (CIC) is the primary factor determining the y-o-y increase in the Fed's securities holdings (bought outright plus repos). Therefore, it's interesting to note that the y-o-y increase in CIC has declined by a substantial amount recently.

For the 12 months ended 12-12-01 CIC rose $47.4 billion from $579.6 bil. to $627.0 bil., a gain of 8.2%. And for the 12 months ended 12-11-02 CIC rose $47.3 bil. from $627.0 bil. to $674.3 bil., a gain of 7.5%. But for the 12 months ended 12-10-03 CIC rose only $37.5 bil. from $674.3 bil. to $711.8 bil., a gain of only 5.5%.

Whatever the reason(s) for the public's recent reduced withdrawals of currency from the banks, that reduction means that the Fed actually has had to acquire fewer securities than usual during the last 12 months.

Ag Mountain

(12/17/2003; 14:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113659)

Agingfast

Does the conclusion of your last sentense actually jive in fact with your observations on the level of securities acquired by the Fed?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/17/2003; 14:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113660)

Your source for BULLION -- at only 1% over our cost!

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 14:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113661)

Ag Mountain

Yep. But I've set a trap with that last sentence and I'm waiting for someone to announce that the Fed's securities acquisitions have actually been larger than usual during the last 12 months. (Old men can be cruel.)

Survivor

(12/17/2003; 14:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113662)

Declining Demand For Greenbacks

@Agingfast - or anyone who knows . . .

". . .it's interesting to note that the y-o-y increase in CIC has declined by a substantial amount recently."

Survivor:

I wonder if the significant thing to understand here is whether the decline represents dollars being circulated domestically, or dollars held outside the country?

It seems to me that the demand for dollars outside the country would be based on the relative Forex value of the dollar, while domestic demand for dollars would be based on the need to meet price inflation. (You know - the price inflation that we're *not* having :)

Perhaps one effect of a lower dollar is going to be the repatriation of a lot of US currency? Seems reasonable if offshore dollar demand goes down and domestic demand goes up.

Help me out, folks. What would this mean? I'm swimming in deep water here :)

- Survivor

Paper Avalanche

(12/17/2003; 14:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113663)

Looks like $420 tomorrow at this rate

I don't think that the shorts will be getting much sleep tonight.

PA

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 14:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113664)

More Mortgage Co bonepile applicants

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=1544&T_ARID=1545&cTID=0&cCat=&cSubCat=snippit:

Mortgage Industry Braces for Layoffs

By Karen Robinson-Jacobs -Times Staff Writer -December 15, 2003

Home loan providers are expected to shed workers as rising interest rates slow refinancing activity. With much of the steam out of the refinancing market, the mortgage financing industry is bracing for widespread layoffs.Two of the biggest home loan providers in California and the nation � Washington Mutual Inc. and Countrywide Financial Corp. � have cut more than 6,500 jobs in recent months. And lenders are preparing to ax thousands more positions in the coming months. In all, about 65,000 people nationwide employed at firms specializing in mortgage lending probably will lose their jobs over the next 12 months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn. That represents about 15% of the peak employment in late summer, when 435,000 workers were processing home loans as borrowers scurried for fear of missing out on historically low mortgage rates.

There's no question that California in particular has a lot riding on this industry. Data from the state's Employment Development Department show that employment in the two sectors that include mortgage lending and brokerage services jumped 18% from 2000 to 2002, to 110,200. And the sectors have added workers this year, even as overall employment has fallen slightly. Fueling the growth: booming home sales and refinancing activity. Statewide, the volume of refinancings totaled $169 billion in the second quarter, up 74% from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from DataQuick Information Systems. Meanwhile, home sales in California are expected to reach a record 574,300 units this year, the California Assn. of Realtors said. But the Realtors group is projecting that California home sales will fall 4.5% next year, and refinancings already have slid since interest rates started creeping up after hitting a more than 40-year low of 5.21% in June. Last week, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.88%, according to giant mortgage lender Freddie Mac.

Goldilox: dem bones dem bones. . .

R Powell

(12/17/2003; 14:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113665)

Agingfast

Agingfast, your words...

"Yep. But I've set a trap with that last sentence and I'm waiting for someone to announce that the Fed's securities acquisitions have actually been larger than usual during the last 12 months. (Old men can be cruel.)"

Okay, I'll bite, why? Was the Fed. forced to buy more securities than they needed (to justify currency inflation?) because there were no other buyers?

BTW, thanks for your posts. Whether or not the statistics are accurate (and I've no doubt that the BLS and other government beancounters are under great pressure to alter, enhanse or otherwise fudge them) in no way changes how the system is "supposed" to work. Whether I agree that the system is good or bad OR that it should even exist also does not negate the value of understanding it. I don't especially like rattlesnakes but I'm glad I understand them so I won't get bit!
Rich

Goldilox

(12/17/2003; 15:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113666)

DMR

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlRock Solid DMR today, BB. I especially like the foreclosures.com paragraph. I'm hoping to pick up a high dollar (low OZ) duplex on the beach when the mortgage pain gets excruciating. I'll rent the other unit out for hard money only!!!! LOL

Goldilox

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 15:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113667)

Survivor

First let me say that the recent actual low point in the y-o-y increase in CIC occurred during July 2003 when for several consecutive weeks the increase came in at only $33 bil.

Obviously, decreased increases in y-o-y CIC would occur when people, here and abroad, choose to increase their holdings of US currency at a slower rate. Maybe they don't trust the paper as much anymore. Maybe changes in the color and design of the paper have contributed to the reduction. Maybe some people have maxed out their credit cards and are raiding their mattresses for spending money.
Actual declines in CIC occur when returns of currency to the banks exceed withdrawals of currency, usually seen after holiday spending when merchants are left with more paper than they usually hold -- although the greatest decline occurred after the Y2K crisis didn't occur and huge amounts of currency withdrawn in late 1999 were returned.

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 16:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113668)

R Powell

Because of the slower y-o-y increase in CIC (the major factor absorbing bank reserves) the Fed acquired fewer securities (the major factor supplying bank reserves) than usual during the last 12 months but a casual look at the Fed balance sheet released each Thursday makes it appear that the Fed acquired more than usual. That's because of the different treatment accorded to matched sales and to reverse repos in connection with a switch made in December 2002. To determine the actual increase in total securities acquisitions - assets that consist of outright purchases plus repos - it's necessary, for another week or two, to subtract the liability item of reverse repos that began to appear on the balance sheet late last year.

None of these facts have anything to do with the ongoing bizarre and misleading reports on GDP, employment and price-inflation. I'm merely saying that the roughly $41 billion of Treasury securities that the Fed bought from a bunch of big dealers in the last 12 months -- an average of less than $800 million a week -- is really not a huge amount of money in Wall Street. The dealers don't care if securities are bought from them with existing money or with newly created money, and if the Fed's purchases dried up completely Wall Street's clever and persistent merchandising activities would be unaffected.

spotlight

(12/17/2003; 16:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113669)

gold/dollar/rand shares

There is evidence of a major trend change in the Gold/Dollar/Rand rut that the gold stocks have been in for so long. South African commerce is very strongly linked to the Euro. Therefore, when the Euro rises against a weak dollar, the Rand has been following the Euro -- a matter of staying even with its major trading partner. I have been following this pattern for over a year, and have been waiting for evidence of a definate change. I now see that change. First let me explain.

The price of gold has been rising in terms of dollars, but has been declining in terms of Rands and Euros. (It has declined in other currencies also, but for this example, that is not relevant.)

Yesterday was the beginning of a reversal of this pattern. Today was further confirmation of what may be the real beginning of the bull market in gold and gold shares. While the Euro rose sharply against the dollar, the Rand fell sharply against the Euro and gold. For the first time,in a long while, gold, in terms of the Rand, was more expensive. An ounce of gold yesterday cost 2619 Rands. Today it costs 2688 Rands. What is more, Yesterday gold in Euro's, was 331 vs. today 332

Gold now appears ready to lead all currencies as the safest store of value. Should this trend continue for a few more sessions, we may see a major rise in the gold and gold share prices.

I am surprised that this was not factored in to todays share prices.

misetich

(12/17/2003; 16:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113670)

U.S. Moves to Reduce Diplomatic Presence in Saudi

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20031217_519.htmlSnip:

Dec. 17 � WASHINGTON (Reuters) - .......................

"Due to ongoing security concerns ... the Department of State authorized the departure, on a voluntary basis, of family members and nonemergency personnel of the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Saudi Arabia," the travel warning said. "Private American citizens should evaluate their own security situations and should consider departing the country."

"The U.S. government continues to receive indications of terrorist threats aimed at American and Western interests, including the targeting of transportation and civil aviation," it added in language identical to its last warning on Dec. 8. "Credible information indicates that terrorists continue to target residential compounds in Saudi Arabia, particularly in the Riyadh area, but also compounds throughout the country."
*****************
Misetich

Saddam has been captured - SO WHAT? The "war" continues - on all fronts -

The Middle East is ready to "flare up" literally as emotions are sky high

The current price of gold is US $ is its infancy bull market stage - such bullish stance has not yet broken out in other currencies

However unexpected geopolitical events could pull the trigger and gold's rise would be spectacular...

Some may take "offence" to the notion expressed in the above analysis "gold's rise would be spectacular"- unfortanately it is not wishful thinking that creates the event - but the financial chaotic climate that we are witnessing

Japan's government is contemplating issuing staggering amount of Yen's to intervene in foreign markets to "prop up the US $" (wonder if Mr. Snow characterizes this so called Japanese (?) interventions as "prices set by FREE market forces")

Whether its uncontemplated geopolitical event, a derivative blowout, skyrocketing oil prices, a run on the US $ - Gold is set to go to unparalled known levels

The launching platform is not $250 to $300 anymore...but starts in the $400's -

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/17/2003; 16:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113671)

Minneapolis Fed Sees Moderate U.S. Economic Expansion in 2004 Dec 17 / 12:18 EST

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1071681480000Snip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank economists
project moderate growth in the U.S. economy in 2004, with the national
unemployment rate decreasing slightly and a modest rise in consumer
prices, the bank said Wednesday.

In its annual economic outlook news conference, the Minneapolis Fed
model projects U.S. gross domestic product growth of a smidgen over 3.0%
measured fourth quarter over fourth quarter. This compares with a
forecast of 3.7% final growth for 2003, the bank's economists said.

The bank forecast also expects the unemployment rate in 2004 to
stay below the 5.9% reported in the November employment report from the
Labor Department.

The Minneapolis Fed projects more inflation in the coming year,
with the Consumer Price Index expected to rise to 2.1%-2.2% on a Q4/Q4
basis compared with about 1.8% for 2003.

****************
Misetich

A sobering report - not the kind of report seldomly seen from a Fed

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/17/2003; 17:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113673)

ECB Sources: Watching Euro Closely; Less Need For Rate Hike Dec 17 / 8:16 EST

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=8&ts=1071666960000Snip:

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Conversations with well-placed ECB sources
have revealed differing degrees of concern with the euro's appreciation,
but officials agreed that the stronger currency could well delay the
need for any monetary tightening.

Insiders told MNI that to this point the ECB has not discussed
using intervention to calm the euro's rise. Several officials said they
did not expect the ECB would consider intervening unless the euro-dollar
rate rose to around $1.35, near the all-time highs of the "synthetic"
euro prior to 1999.

In any case, the ECB would not act alone during an upward trend and
there is no sign yet that U.S. authorities would be interested in
participating, the bankers said.
.....................
Indeed, several sources said that, all else being equal, the
stronger euro might allow the ECB to keep rates on hold until early
2005.
..........................
Asked what policy responses would follow a continued euro rise, the
source said, "it's too early now, we can't say." But he added the first
step would be verbal intervention.

The ECB does not have a specific level that will trigger policy
responses, it is still making "simulations" of the effects of different
exchange rate moves on growth and inflation.

A second senior source was more sanguine about the euro's rise.

"The European Central Bank is not concerned by the strength of the
currency and has no plans for intervening. This issue has not been
raised," he said categorically, noting that the latest data show an
increase in eurozone exports, which is expected to continue in 2004
despite the rise in the euro.

"The current exchange rate with the dollar is within our
expectations and I cannot predict any discussion of intervention unless
we see the exchange rate rising above $1.35."
..............................
In the view of a third eurozone central banker, the current
euro-dollar rate "doesn't bother" the members of the ECB Council, though
the central bank remains uneasily aware of the risk of a sudden dollar
plunge.

This official commented that the continued signs that the eurozone
economy is heading for recovery lies behind officials' still sanguine
approach to recent currency developments.
........................
The source pointed out that prior to monetary union, in nominal
terms the "synthetic euro" reached or exceeded current levels in 1988
and 1990-91, while in 1995-96 it was worth around $1.40. And in real
effective (or trade weighted) terms the euro was then probably even
stronger.

Until the euro nears $1.35, and provided its appreciation remains
"orderly," the ECB is unlikely to take any action, the official
suggested.
................................
*****************
Misetich

uuhha uuhaha - Mr. Pacino would exclaim

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/17/2003; 17:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113674)

Reality Check: US Machine Tool Execs: 4Q Cap Spending Rises>

http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

--After Three Brutal Years, An Upswing In Orders
--Credit Broad-based Manufacturing Activity, More Exports
--Sales Aimed At Productivity Increases, Not Expanding Capacity

By Gary Rosenberger

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Capital spending by manufacturers is on the
rise in the fourth quarter, fueled by heavy defense spending, export
demand, depleted inventories, some generous tax incentives and deep
discounts for new equipment -- raising hopes that the brutalized
manufacturing sector is on the mend, say machine tool executives.

The amount of rebound varies, with some describing a mild upswing
and others something far more dramatic, but it does appear that November
and early December are especially robust for new orders.

But there might be a limit to this recovery, considering how much
of the nation's manufacturing base has moved offshore, they warn.
........................
******************

Misetich

With so much "fuel" thrown to revive the manufacturing sector the "upswing" is really really poor

The housing sector is going full blast, the auto industry (no profits) are more than holding their own activity wise...

yet..the manufacturing sector is struggling

ANOTHER sign the jobless recovery will continue in 2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Great Albino Bat

(12/17/2003; 17:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113675)

Goldcorp and McEwen

I'm a little late to the party here, but upon reading today's posts about McEwen selling 40% of his stock, on the one hand, and then reading that Goldcorp sold its gold stash last week, I put the two things together and come up with a wild assumption:

Maybe McEwen sold off 40% of his stock, and bought his own company's gold stash with the proceeds?

Nah! Couldn't be, could it?

Real guano from the GAB

Arcticfox

(12/17/2003; 18:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113676)

Great observation by "Midas"

*The Gold Cartel keeps shooting themselves in the foot. Because they don't allow gold to spike at any point in time ($6 rule and all), the physical market never dries up. Once gold has risen to new price highs, the cash buyers back off a bit. They then get used to the new price level, which is only modestly higher than the old one, and buy dips. There is so much competition for the available physical supply, they cushion cabal-induced setbacks and gold goes on to make newer highs. Had The Gold Cartel not capped the market all the way up, the cash market might have dried up for weeks at a time after price spikes and the cabal might have turned the large specs into sellers, sending the gold price cascading.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/17/2003; 18:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113677)

Am I too late to have my order shipped in time for Christmas?

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/Believe it or not, there's still time!! We've managed to pull out all the stops to be able to extend the ordering window as far as possible to accommodate any last-minute gift-giving needs you may have.

To facilitate this very tight delivery schedule for all in-stock items, we must receive any phone orders by 4:00PM Mountain Standard Time on Friday, December19th.

1-800-869-5115, talk with Marie at ext. 106

Additionally, orders can be submitted online as late as Monday, December 22nd by 8:00AM MST for Christmas-eve delivery.

Cometose

(12/17/2003; 18:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113678)

Bonds //CAN DOLLAR

Well the Bond Market ebbs and flows but with interest rates at 40 year lows I don't know if the fed has anymore room to reduce rates. They say there's a recovery and therefore we may have to see rates edge up in the spring ....Economic Recovery is a leading indicator for the Stock Market....and not the reverse and there is not Economic Recovery ...SO I don't understand why anyone would be selling anything to buy bonds or why anyone would be buying bonds at all.....

Assuming there is no recovery........ the stock market is toast out into the future.......if there is not recovery then as the Money supply indicates , we are going to have deflation......where the money supply contracts and the economy contracts.......at 10 for 1........as it expanded 10 for one on money creation......So as the dollar goes so should also go the value of our bond market..and as the economy goes (down) so goes the ability of the US to make good on it's obligations and collect from the tax payer....what was it the President said "Let's ROLL " I didn't know he was talking to Alan Greenspan in Fed Speak .\as in ROLL THE PRINTING PRESSES (and the perception of inflation kind of sneaks up on us from behind)...So why is anyone buying bonds.......to help their banker buddies fraternity brothers overseas get out...... sell the hights? until they are out and leave the burning match in the dummies hands.....hands of the mutual fund managers' clients accounts.....They aren't keeping them for the great return they are getting.....

Now I have another question (by the way the bond market graph looks like a pennant formation ) . Why is the CANADIAN dollar trading down .....maybe the big boys are taking the bond market up and selling the
Canadian Dollar at the same time...Looks like someone just did a huge spread SHORT THE CANADIAN and long the BOND Market.......I assume when they get finished they are going to reinvest their proceeds in the reverse positions and take a little ride.....The Canadian Dollar has been more sympathetic with the GOld Market than in the recent past....Someone who wants to get out of bonds is continuing to get out of bonds in the ebb and flow .....and perhaps loading up on the Canadian DOLLAR....Yes the Can dollar has recently developed an inverse relationship with the US BOND Market.........but I still don't understand why anyone would buy US BONDS.........it's ..........so ......risky....
It's like an Armada of unseaworthy vessels together put out to sea......the only reason they float is because of peoples perceptions.....and derivitives.....and other peoples fear of upsetting the derivitive applecart.....

Isn't it true that the only way to stop runaway inflation is in raising interet rates ; isn't that what Paul Volker did in the 8o's . THE most derivitive exposed are the ones that know when the change will come....so they need not be (derivitives)xposed when the time comes to raise rates........
How long they gonna let this game run out of any semblance of order.........probably a preset price in gold before they do anything about it.... these guys get bored if things don't move.......hmmmm what was it Bernard Baruch said when asked what He thought was going to happen in the markets..""? He said" they are going to fluctuate......"

Tally HO.................Looks like they lost control of the GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS>>>>>>.

steady

(12/17/2003; 19:15:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113679)

ECOism and derivatives.

I have been mulling over whether or not ecoism would adopt the use of derivaties for quit a while now, not know if the addition of those things would undercut the strong foundation that ecoism has developed so far. Ecoism will adopt derivates! but the question really is what kind of derivates, and what will be derived from what.

what is being derived is personal fullfillment economically, socially, intellectually and any other endevor one choses to pursue successfully. what the above is being derived from is the self satisfaction in knowing that the choices one is making, morally , financially, economically are the right choices based upon your perception of the events happening in the world. see ecoism like everything else ideally isnt made up yet its book is unfolding and its adapting morphing and compiling, waiting for the antithesis to come along and challenge it. see thats teh beauty of ecoism its each individual chosing for hin/her self what course is best to take, and its eirrie that many are plotting the same course world over and like beautiful music you just want the new golden tune to continue for infinity.

so ecoism will use derivates on the individual purpose for fullfilling ones own attempts to better themselvs in the areas named above.

you know ecoism also belives in sound money policy, one where obligations are fullfilled before hand so ther will be no more unfunded obligations as an unfunded economy can and does lead to unfunded lives, despair and complete dullness, apathy about circumstances conditions and ideas.
ecoism belives in saving for future consumption rather than spending now and paying latter with future work earning in an subjectivly valued unit of account that is created out of thin air and well paper and ink.

likeour conterpart in the derivative market ecoites use of derivates will be unbounded, but unlike the other ones ecoism derivates will hold absolutly no counter party arrangements itwill be between ecoites and themselvs, results show action as words are to ideas sound is to thought coming into existance. so only results will be visible like the other derivates there will be a wall of openness and obstification surronding ecoites derivates because our kinda derivates are positve creations upon the individual and whose effects will be felft world wide as our thoughts and ides bear out over time as gold again proclaims i am the judge, arbitrator and executioner of fiat money, bring em on.
so yes lets hoist that plank, refined redefinedderivate that ecoism embraces.

even though ecoism hails from uranus our derivates do not stink like raw sewage.

Max Rabbitz

(12/17/2003; 19:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113680)

Circuit City and Carribbean Pirates

This doesn't have a lot to do with gold, at least directly, but Sir MK started it so here it is.

A week ago or so Sir MK said he saw the movie Pirates of the Caribbean and was impressed, at least with a Sir Depp. Since I like adventure movies, especially with pirates, sailing ships and warm climates I went out to look for it. They wanted more than $23 at the Mall and that was on sale in front. It's not cheap but I was looking for a diversion so on to Circuit city. Wow, only $15. I snapped it up. But it was on CD format. I needed a CD player. They had a Sony for less than $100. Good deal. I brought it home. But my old TV didn't have the right hookup��. Time to slow down and learn. Lots of new formats out there. Plasma. Digital. High Definition. Starting at $1500 and up.

I'll wait until price declines substantially or my ship comes in. I can get a regular 27 inch TV for $180 at Circuit City that has all the right connections. A new chip was announced on the news this morning that promises to bring the price of digital TV way down. This tech gadget deflation is probably a big part of compensating deflation that keeps the CPI unrealistically low, especially since I suspect they are hedonically priced, like computers.

The big competitor of Circuit City is Best Buy. Best Buy's earnings came out yesterday and it surpassed expectations. Like what doesn't. Well, Circuit city. Circuit City is the former leader of the field and now actually losing money. How can this be. They are both retailers of Asian made electronics and yet they are night and day on earnings. Is it their sales force? Store presentation or format? Management? I didn't have a clue since I think my local Circuit City is pretty cool. So I checked the source of all wisdom, Yahoo chat rooms. Everybody seems to be a Strong Sell on Circuit City but they don't really say why other than lots of personal attacks on the management. But there were a few trying to organize a boycott of Circuit City. Why? They were sending jobs to China. How does a retailer outsource jobs to China? Must be those administrative and accounting jobs. This may be a mistake. It has yet to be proven that the Chinese can beat American accounting ingenuity.

spotlight

(12/17/2003; 20:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113681)

bonds

Cometose
Good post. I agree.

I can't understand why people who buy US bonds can't grasp the fact that, like people whose credit is hopelesly over extended have to pay a very large premium in order to get a loan, so it is with nations, NORMALLY.

There has to be something wrong when the largest debtor nation in the world gets a low interest rate on its bonds.

Of course, with a little investigation they could find that the US bond market is held up artificially by Japan and China,who are doing so for their own self interest. This must certainly,come to an end soon.

Also, we don't really know how much dollar volume in bonds the fed has swallowed.

The Fed has said, words to the effect,they would be a buyer if necessary. However, I believe that could be a big bluff.
The fed is a private institution with a profit and loss statement to report. If it got caught with huge losses on depreciating govt.debt, they couldn't keep the secret very long. Who would bail out the one in charge of bailouts?

The European Union has commited itself to $1.35 on the Euro.
So, that's where the line in the sand is drawn. Gold should be at a price in line with such an advance. after that,gold's rise should be determined according to all the positive or negative world circumstances prevailing at that time.

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 20:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113682)

spotlight - bonds

The average person has heard that you should buy low and sell high, so the average person probably believes that bonds with low yields are more attractive than bonds with high yields. I remember that in September 1981 the US long bond sold for a very low price and yielded 15%. So nobody wanted it. Bonds at that time were sneeringly referred to as "certificates of confiscation." But now bond prices are high and yields are low. So everybody wants them. To the buyers, nothing could be more sensible. In their ignorance, they probably believe that buying a bond or a note with a low yield offers them the opportunity of making a nice profit as yields rise in the years ahead!

The Stranger

(12/17/2003; 21:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113683)

Average People and Treasury Bonds

U.S. Government bond yields are low right now because the Fed is buying them in order to fend off deflation, and the BOJ is buying them to defend the Yen.

Meanwhile any "average" person who thinks low yields are better than high ones is not likely to have much money to invest anyway.

Agingfast

(12/17/2003; 21:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113684)

The Stranger's Theory

Sigh. Here we go again. Despite the enormous amount of outstanding Treasury securities, and my earlier posts today about the actual size of the Fed's securities acquisitions, there are still people who believe the Fed can buy, and is buying, enough Treasury notes and bonds "to fend off deflation."

Melting Pot

(12/17/2003; 22:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113685)

Revisiting Roger Arnold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/arnoldr022203.htmlSNIP:

Everything pivots on economic activity.

The FED, reserve bankers and member banks are willing to incur a reduction in the value of their own asset base caused by the inflation they induce only if it causes an increase in economic activity. In the event that monetary stimulus fails to cause an increase in economic activity, the FED, reserve bankers and member banks will have NO ALTERNATIVE than to move to protect their own asset base ahead of the recessionary, deflationary effects of falling economic activity.

Once the FED and associated members make the decision that protection of their asset base is paramount to stimulus measures the yield on the 10 year treasury will begin to fall rapidly.

As this occurs those not understanding this will assume the FED is still attempting to stimulate and make the tragic mistake of attempting to buy stocks and bonds expecting a rebound.

What is actually happening is that the FED is capitulating to an economic crash themselves and moving to protect themselves at the expense of everyone else.

Also, please be mindful of the fact that the FED will NEVER tell us that this is what they are doing.

February 21, 2003

LaRouche - 50% Collapse
Of The Dollar Signals
Bankruptcy Of The Nation

SNIP:

"There's no way that we will get to the November 2004 election, with the United States which continues to represent what most foolish people believe it represents, at this moment today. This will not happen months down the line: We're on the verge of a total collapse. The breaking point could come at any moment. It could come in your Christmas stocking--or in the hole in your Christmas stocking. It could come later, because the ability to print money indefinitely, and using electronic means, as well as printing-press means, does give governments the ability to postpone a collapse which is already onrushing. Such methods of postponing a collapse, however, only make things worse. But we're in that period, at which, in a fairly short period of time, in the near term--during the course of the coming year, if it doesn't happen before Christmas--this thing is going down!"

"...we're on the verge of the greatest financial collapse known to any of you. And it's coming on soon."

http://larouchein2004.net/pages/pressreleases/2003/031216dollar.htm

Gold, get you some!

Gandalf the White

(12/17/2003; 23:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113686)

A "REQUEST" of The Stranger and Sir Agingfast -----

Agingfast (12/17/03; 21:49:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 113684)
The Stranger's Theory
Sigh. Here we go again. Despite the enormous amount of outstanding Treasury securities, and my earlier posts today about the actual size of the Fed's securities acquisitions, there are still people who believe the Fed can buy, and is buying, enough Treasury notes and bonds "to fend off deflation."
====

The Stranger (12/17/03; 21:34:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 113683)
Average People and Treasury Bonds
U.S. Government bond yields are low right now because the Fed is buying them in order to fend off deflation, and the BOJ is buying them to defend the Yen.

Meanwhile any "average" person who thinks low yields are better than high ones is not likely to have much money to invest anyway.
====
<;-)
OK ! I wish to be the MODERATOR of the CONGENIAL DEBATE between The Strange and Sir Agingfast !!!
PLEASE let us not take shots at each other, BUT discuss SLOWLY, and in as much detail as possible, the matter of US Treasury Bonds --- Say using the 30 Year Bond.
OK ?
WHY ? you ask ! BECAUSE as I do know of The Stranger and his position in the financial business --- AND I can see that Sir Agingfast has had many years of experience and learning in the matter also ---
I NEED TO UNDERSTAND what the REAL STORY is, as Sir Melting Pot's post --
---
Melting Pot (12/17/03; 22:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 113685)
Revisiting Roger Arnold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/arnoldr022203.html
---
has convinced me that THIS IS IMPORTANT !
Please if the two of you can share the time with us --
BEGIN !
Thanks
Gandy

spotlight

(12/17/2003; 23:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113687)

Revisiting Roger Arnold

Melting Pot (12/17/03; 22:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 113685
Revisiting Roger Arnold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/arnoldr022203.html
***********************************************************
I disagree with the conclusion that the fed will protect their assets by buying bonds. If that is true, we should all be doing the same.

I believe bonds will be the worst investment you could make.

I believe that we will see inflation trigger a panic into a new monetary system. We are seeing the seeds of that now as the oil price discounts daily, the falling purchasing power of the dollar.

If you believe the dollar will get stronger and have more purchasing power at the end of this dollar crises, then bonds will do just fine. You won't need gold.

As I wrote earlier, If it wasn't for Japan/China sopping up our T-debt to keep their currencies weak, the dollar would have collapsed long ago and interest rates would be intolerable here in the US.

*********************
You posted from Roger Arnold:
SNIP:

Everything pivots on economic activity.

The FED, reserve bankers and member banks are willing to incur a reduction in the value of their own asset base caused by the inflation they induce only if it causes an increase in economic activity. In the event that monetary stimulus fails to cause an increase in economic activity, the FED, reserve bankers and member banks will have NO ALTERNATIVE than to move to protect their own asset base ahead of the recessionary, deflationary effects of falling economic activity.

Once the FED and associated members make the decision that protection of their asset base is paramount to stimulus measures the yield on the 10 year treasury will begin to fall rapidly.

As this occurs those not understanding this will assume the FED is still attempting to stimulate and make the tragic mistake of attempting to buy stocks and bonds expecting a rebound.

What is actually happening is that the FED is capitulating to an economic crash themselves and moving to protect themselves at the expense of everyone else.

Also, please be mindful of the fact that the FED will NEVER tell us that this is what they are doing.

February 21, 2003

Waverider

(12/18/2003; 01:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113688)

Dollar Steady Against Major Currencies

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031218/markets_forex_1.html"The dollar was steady against major currencies on Thursday, taking a breather after hitting record lows against the euro for four straight trading days as the gloomy outlook for the U.S. currency proves unrelenting. Against the yen, dealers said the greenback would likely stay in a tight band for the time being on caution over currency intervention, despite persistent worries about the U.S. current account deficit and geopolitical risks. "Japan looks set to raise the borrowing limit of its intervention fund," said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase. "But we believe that intervention will only intermittently stop the yen's rise against the dollar and it will not alter a trend of dollar weakness." Government sources have told Reuters that Japan would raise the borrowing limit on its foreign exchange account to 100 trillion yen ($931.2 billion) for the fiscal year ending next March from the current ceiling of 79 trillion yen."

Waverider: I don't see their logic - all fundamentals and technicals point to a considerably weaker US$. Surely by now the Japanese realize they aren't going to effect the trend, so why intervene for only short periods of respite?

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 03:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113689)

Gandalf the White as Moderator

Sorry, there's no debate to moderate. I'm not forecasting what lies ahead. I'm just saying that, despite all kinds of rumors and conspiracy theories about the Fed's acquisition of securities, Fed transparency in that area is remarkable. What other organization publishes an updated balance sheet every week? Unless one believes that the Fed keeps two sets of books -- and that the well-known Americans affiliated with the Fed over the years have been aware of that fact and condone it -- then it's obvious that the annual increases in the Fed's securities holdings (the major factor supplying reserves) occur almost entirely as a result of the annual increases in currency in circulation (the major absorber of reserves).

contrarian

(12/18/2003; 03:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113690)

spotlight--revisiting roger arnold and others

regarding fed buying bonds...
didn't we go through all this a few months back...earlier in the year, someone at the fed, Bernanke, I believe, talked up the Fed buying bonds. And then their bluff was called in June, when bonds started falling...and the Fed just sat there and let the bonds fall...I don't believe they intervened; otherwise, why did bonds fall at that point?

After boldly proclaiming they could buy bonds, and then not following through by buying them, I think they exposed themselves for the paper tigers they are. I can't imagine that if they didn't buy bonds at that critical point back in June, they're going to buy bonds at some point in the future. Desperate they are, but they're not that stupid...they know it would unleash the wolves of inflation.

spotlight

(12/18/2003; 04:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113691)

bonds/Fed

Contrarian
Good points.

Also, being a private instituton, they have to consider the risk of buying bonds. The amount they would have to buy during a crises could wipe out their capital,if the market for US bonds should collapse.

Druid

(12/18/2003; 06:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113692)

Bonds

My theory is that market sepculators are on the "buy" side of the bond trade these days as the 20 year bull market in bonds would attest and that the Fed has hinted that should this dynamic change in major way the Fed would be a buyer of debt in the future. This is what has made bond speculation a sure bet over the years. The latest ridiculous GDP figure was a signal from the powers that be to the bond market to lighten up the load so that we can have an "orderly" transition to higher rates. Remember, we're in managed collectivist economy, so there must be "order" in all things economic.

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 07:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113693)

Bonds

@ Contrarian

How do you wipe out the capital of someone who has a printing press to creatte it?

I must admit, being pretty much ignorant about how bonds work, this discussion is losing me badly. It would be useful to more people if the participants would break down their posts for the less expert in FED cryptology.

Max Rabbitz

(12/18/2003; 07:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113694)

Helicopter Money

This term used by the Fed early this year was misleading. It implies that they would distribute as much liquidity as needed with everyone equally able to stuff their pockets to the fill. This is not how it works. By keeping short term rates low and stating they will stay there for a considerable time they are giving risk free money to the banks through the bond carry trade (borrow short and buy treasuries or bonds). This helps keep the bond rates low even though the dollar is falling and takes up the slack from those nervous foreign lenders. It stimilulates housing and mortage activity. The banks can then use the profits from the bond trade to invest in the stock markets, re-inflating them. The money from rising equity prices then trickles down to stock speculators and from there into the general economy. The last in line is the person trying to save. It is not possible to save in dollars, only to speculate. How long before the wheels come off? Or will the banks just end up owning everything and everyone?

Cometose

(12/18/2003; 07:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113695)

bonds

Thank you all for your discussion on bonds in the past several hours ; it's helped to refresh my memory and open my eyes......and give me a little more understanding

and thanks to the fed for its most unrealistic fiat strategies.... to float the worthless paper .......and and many unseaworthy boats..

guess the realists are just going to stand on the sidelines , watch the ridiculous and buy lots of real assets in exchange for our now floating paper:.....gold and silver....platinum , copper.....soybeans...........and foreign currencies.....

Perception and timing are in most everything.....but especially in greed and fear.....and the news.....

Wonder what the new year will bring in NEWS.......perception and timing.....and how this will effect greed and fear.....it's ominous to think that Warren Buffet sold 9 billion in bonds over the summer and made it plain that he was buying foreign currencies.....I'd say he was about a year ahead of the curve on that one....And anyone remember what year it was that he bought 20% of the worlds silver supply off the market...Hope he lives another 40 years .....I think I'll just follow along ...doesn't take much effort .....but sure fun learning at the feet of those that have the best info......

contrarian

(12/18/2003; 09:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113696)

goldilox--bonds

I'm not a bond expert, but I believe it works this way...bonds are bought and sold just like stocks, and their prices go up and down according to supply and demand just like stocks.

A bond has a fixed interest rate--which corresponds to the amount you will gain at maturity. This interest rate doesn't change.

But its impact does, due to the price one pays for the bond. A higher priced bond will mean less effective money gained, when the price of the bond is factored in. The interest rate divided by the actual price of the bond (not the face value) equals the "yield". As the bond price goes up, the yield goes down, and viceversa. The yield of long-term bonds is a very important factor in the equation, because it impacts mortgage rates, etc.

When the demand for bonds suddenly dropped in June, the Fed just sat there and did NOT intervene, exposing them for the charletans they are. After all that talk earlier that year that they have a printing press and can use it.

They could easily have printed money to buy up the bonds and restore the "demand" for bonds. But they didn't when they had the chance, and they won't. Their bluff was called. They know that to do so, will really ingnite inflation, if it isn't ignited already.

So, consequently, I don't expect them to buy bonds in the future. I think they're both cautious and clueless about the whole economic situation we're in, and are just hoping for the best.

I think they have limited capabilities regarding manipulating the long term interest rate, which is really what we're talking about here...10 yr, 30 year bonds.

They can certainly change the short term rates and they can talk up a story (jawbone), but their impact on the long term rate, which is determined by the market supply/demand for long term bonds (the price), is nil, I think.

I'm a little murky here, but I think this is how it works...Although Fed said they expect short-term rates to be low for a "considerable period", they may have to swallow these words and raise short term rates if long-term bond prices collapse (raising long-term interest rates and igniting inflationary concerns), because not to do so could cause a nasty feedback loop that could cause long-term bond prices to fall further and further raise long-term interest rates and inflation.

Subcomandante Tomas

(12/18/2003; 09:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113697)

Yuan

What is with this Chinese strategy of pegging the yuan to the dollar? Why wouldn't they want as much purchasing power as possible, at all times? What is their monetary policy? Have they been printing enough yuans to keep up with the dollars now in circulation? How about the yen and the euro? It's as if China and the US are in race to the bottom, both wanting to depreciate their currencies so they can export more. Why don't they just lower the prices of their products? Might the Chinese unpeg the yuan suddenly to catch us off guard? Or, as Bush seems to indicate, is this what he wants, not catching us off guard? Or, might the Chinese abandon the yuan for gold, in another strategy to catch us off guard?

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 09:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113698)

Bonds

Thanks C-

That helps some. I really was clueless during the earlier discussion.

Check it out. The $ is above 88 (barely) again. Gandalf's mutts must be sleeping in again this morning.

They still can't knock gold down very far. Our latest bottom seems to be $407+.

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 09:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113699)

contrarian - Excellent comments

By promising that it will monetize everything on the planet if necessary, the Fed gains two important allies. 1) The hucksters of Wall Street use the Fed's "promises" as the ammunition they need to peddle financial assets. 2) Commentators in the print, broadcast and internet media constantly reinforce the Fed's "promises" in the minds of gullible investors. In the latter group, the most (unintentionally) helpful to the Fed are the conspiracy theorists who are extremely persistent in their claims that a) the Fed has actually been buying Treasury securities far in excess of its balance sheet requirements in order to drive US longer-term interest rates lower and/or that b) the Fed has been cleverly arranging financing for dealers (through the Fed's repo pool, for example) so that the dealers, rather than the Fed itself, can support the US stock and bond markets.

(Your moderating services might be needed after all, Gandalf, if these comments provoke an angry reaction.)

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 09:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113700)

Yuan meanderings

@ Tomas:

I have been pondering similar questions. The simple answer seems to be that holding yuan denominated investments should at some point offer a lucrative bump, but that solution is vulnerable to any number of unexpected shenanigans.

The more "imbalanced" the yuan and dollar become, the more potentially explosive depegging becomes. As the Snowman says they want "orderly" $ decline, one has to wonder what kind of "orderly" depegging they might be conjuring up. I've heard speculation of a repegging "curve" over arbitrary time. Sounds a lot like a gubmint mind at work.

In some ways this is similar to conjecture about the gubmint's unexpressed intentions towards gold, should the predicted takeoff of POG occur. One thing common about gubmints, they often get involved in something just in time to thoroughly screw it up!

contrarian

(12/18/2003; 09:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113701)

agingfast

I do believe that, through the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Fed is doing all it can to prop up the stock market...by supplying the funds to its agents Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc. They prop up the market in the early morning by buying index futures. Then, notice how around 2pm, if it's a down day, suddenly things turn up.

I believe that manipulation was begun after crash of 87.

Very easy to do at low cost. They have to zero out though. If they "drop a leg" in the morning (go long), in the afternoon they quietly retract the long (sell it back).

It follows the principals of "Reminiscences of a Stock Trader". Come in buying loudly clanging with cymbals to raise the price, then sell quietly later, to get out and take your profit.

Thus, it doesn't cost a lot to do this, since you're continually getting in and getting out. If you have a pool of money, a few billion, you can really make an impact, especially using the stock indexes.

I think the bond thing is harder to manipulate...you'd actually have to print up money and buy up the things.

Regarding stocks, I don't think the Fed can stave off the inevitable crash coming. Markets are bigger than governments and manipulation can only succeed for so long.

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 10:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113702)

contrarian

Since it's "very easy to do at low cost" why would Wall Street need the Fed's help to do it?

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 10:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113703)

(No Subject)

I'm not trying to be argumentative but since you pointed out that the Fed was unable to prevent the plunge in bond prices that occurred earlier this year it must also be pointed out that neither the Fed nor anyone else was able to prevent the plunge in stock prices that occurred a couple of years ago.

Pizz

(12/18/2003; 10:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113704)

Contrarian, R Powell

Re: the bond market.

Larger market to control, that's why we have Greenspan forcasting interest rate policy. It marshalls the carry trade with currency dollars to borrow short and buy longer yield maturities propping up bonds.

Large speculative, hot money, tends to wreck havoc with policy - especially if it is going against you. So all the FED has to do is point them in the right direction and all the hot money works for him, rather than against him.

Greenspan does not want regulation of the derivative market. I wonder why? (Smile). So far we haven't had a crash, and if stabilizing markets and letting the dollar deflate gradually is the plan, it appears to be working.

But like all complex machines, all it takes is one monkey wrench in a coupole of gears.

Thats why a large position in precious metals is so nice. We get a nice upwards, bull market, with built in disaster insurance. . .

-------------------

Rich, killed a chicken lately? Curious as to your feeling on silver busting up thru 5.75. . .

Pizz

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 10:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113705)

Silver 5.7r

@ Pizz

Kill a chicken? I would think Rich is eyeing the "fatted calf" at this point.

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 10:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113706)

Up toward the close again

Dagnabbit Gandalf:

It's about time those mutts woke up!!

a nation of one

(12/18/2003; 11:06:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113707)

.crackling dawn.

Here we are, teetering on the cusp of this new reality:
for the first time in the history of biology on this
planet we have the potential for practically universal,
and immediate, communication throughout the general
population, and people are running around with their
tongues in their ears, oblivious to particular aspects of
the change. It is like cars had just been invented, and a
lot of people have one, and ninety percent of the
population still think they have to hitch up their horses
to the front of them.

Like all markets, the gold market is a world-wide 24 hour
market, and everybody is still acting as though all
relevant trading stops at twelve thirty in Manhattan. The
means exist by which gold may be traded by anyone, with
anyone, anywhere, at any time. All that remains to
accomplish this profound difference is for people to start
doing it, and for some entity to register their trades in
a meaningful way.

It takes a nut like me to point this out to people,
because you have to be a nut to stand on time's advancing
edge. It's not that nuts are the only ones who do this,
but rather, that, once you do it, you become a nut. That's
why not everyone does it. And so there are always those
who are not yet nuts, miles from the front, unaware there
is an edge, or that anything new could be happening, and
all they do is slowly ride their overpowered horse-drawn
luxury race cars down the obsolete mud-paved roadways
lined with bombed out trees and avid news hawks priming
their own pumps with fictituous appearances in the way
that modern culture mongers always have, while everything
that matters to them is determined by someone else. Some
dawns climb up gradually. They don't come up like thunder,
though, maybe, in this case, it should. Or at least it
could.

Therefore I should not be surprised to see the world cave
in each day to the gurus and Lulus of Wall Street. One
might think they would wake up, but it is not they who are
asleep, it's everyone else. Those of us who woke up before
now are made to itch by this, made to be exasperatingly
restless, watching the vast vat of smoldering humanity
hungry for riches and wealth peddling their small tomatoes
and wrinkled onions on obscure Chinese street corners
without even knowing how to spell gold, much less how to
go against that Old, Cold, Bold, Northeast Rocky Island
that has two names twice, and which, someday, will be
under two miles of glacial ice, as it has been more than
two times before.

Some day every dream will come true. When it does, gold
will go up significantly while the only market open is
Siberia, or Podunk, since, electrically speaking, these
localities are both approximately the same place and
therefore in a sense equal, and they really are actually
connected in a meaningful way by these nice little -
potentially (but, so far, unrealized) society-shattering-
devices on our living rooms tables that we call our PCs,
although nobody but us nuts have recognized this fact yet.

[My dictionary says that "exasperate" means "roughened
with irregular pickles or elevators." Oops. Never mind.
That's "prickles or elevations." Sorry. Won't happen
again.]

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 11:20:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113708)

Your post

@ A NUTion of One;

Nice rant. I bet the tomato and onion venders understand "pickles" better than "prickles".

I believe that the bias towards NY close is being challenged. One indication of that is the volatility of mining stocks based on spot movements after the NY close.

People like Sinclair often remind us that one of the ways to beat the CABAL is to trade in other markets with an eye toward arbitrage of their attacks.

Pizz

(12/18/2003; 11:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113709)

Goldilox

If memory serves me correctly, Rich has the fine art of reading chicken entrails down to a science.

My own favorite is the Malox indicator. I never sell during bouts of stomach distress. Problem is, it's hard to tell whether the distress is work related or investment related. But when I'm relaxed and comfortable, it's definitely time to take a bit off the table.

Right now, I'm just nervous enough for one more NICE 30 or 40 buck bump in gold and a spike up in PM shares. Everyone is getting nervous about profit taking for tax reasons in January. . .probably won't happen til Feb or March.

------------------

Having a company Xmas party Sat night. Using what they call a Chinese gift exchange. You pick a gift, open it, and the next person in line has the option of taking the one away from the last person, or picking out an unopened one. Going to use 5 0z. of Ag and see what happens. . . .

Pizz

Zhisheng

(12/18/2003; 11:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113710)

Up into the close.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Though down for the day. Can't win 'em all, even in a bull market.

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 11:31:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113711)

chinese gift exchange

@ Pizz

I just thought Rich might be celebrating.

As we often wonder about the public's awareness of gold and silver markets, the silver bullion gift sounds like a perfect awareness indicator. If it is opened early, an aware crowd might see it pass through many hands. I've participated in a couple of those, and they are a lot of fun.

Jing Zu

(12/18/2003; 11:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113712)

@ Pizz

Wow what a Christmas gift! 5 Oz? That is a lot!

Are you trying to see if someone will give it away?

Just to see if they have any sense about them?

That is one wild thing to do! My wife and I play that way every year except this year we had the flu and did not make it to the party...

Let us know what happens....OK?

Paper Avalanche

(12/18/2003; 11:35:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113713)

My options theory holds....

We closed at $409.90 for the day.

I wish I possessed the knowledge of futures options to expand upon my hunch (or better yet, the time to educate myself to obtain such knowledge). However, if we see a close on Monday right below $410 as we did today, expect to see the POG take off again starting Tuesday.

Again, this is a hunch based on recent memory of a similar situation and I may be wrong (I often am).

Take care and happy holidays!

PA

Jing Zu

(12/18/2003; 11:36:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113714)

Sorry....Pizz..

I am obviously loosing my mind... I thought it was Gold you were giving as a gift..

Excuse me..

Still want to know what happens though..

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/18/2003; 11:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113715)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The precious metals dived on little news and a "stronger" U.S. dollar but rebounded off the lows nearing the end of the trading session. The Euro, oil, and gold turned higher into the close. One interesting note missed by most analysts today is that bullion banks took advantage of the low volume trade as the holidays approach and tomorrow's possible "quadruple witching" volatility to sell gold short. Meanwhile, physical demand remains quite strong as jewelry sales are among the top sellers this Xmas season.

(Note: I will be gone tonight to an Xmas party out of town with other geologists and meet with a client tomorrow morning. Depending on the time of my return tomorrow's DMR may or may not be posted or maybe later than usual).

Jon H. Warner

Black Blade

(12/18/2003; 11:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113716)

Pizz

We are to have what is called a "Ornament Chinese Auction" at an Xmas party tonight. I wonder if that is the same thing? I never heard of such a thing but I guess I will find out tonight.

- Black Blade

CoBra(too)

(12/18/2003; 12:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113717)

As I may not be in a need of a Moderator @ Agingfast

Agingfast (12/18/03; 09:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 113699)
contrarian - Excellent comments
By promising that it will monetize everything on the planet if necessary, the Fed gains two important allies. 1) The hucksters of Wall Street use the Fed's "promises" as the ammunition they need to peddle financial assets. 2)
...- And even there I might be way off base, I'd be very happy if you'd read Shostak's comments and as a remedy "crosscurrents"! (Will supply the links at your convenience).

As you've stated, and it's coming close to what Mike Bolser figured, I don't really (want to) understand your misgivings. You've already succumbed to the hedonic reporting of the BLS, while you still believe in the FED's Thursday accountability; reckoning it's the truth, and nothing but the truth!

I may only say, wake up, or else age faster ..., no disrespect intended; ... And here, in your own words, some doubts remain:

"Commentators in the print, broadcast and internet media constantly reinforce the Fed's "promises" in the minds of gullible investors. In the latter group, the most (unintentionally) helpful to the Fed are the conspiracy theorists who are extremely persistent in their claims that a) the Fed has actually been buying Treasury securities far in excess of its balance sheet requirements in order to drive US longer-term interest rates lower and/or that b) the Fed has been cleverly arranging financing for dealers (through the Fed's repo pool, for example) so that the dealers, rather than the Fed itself, can support the US stock and bond markets.

(Your moderating services might be needed after all, Gandalf, if these comments provoke an angry reaction.) ..."

And no, this is not to be construed as an angry reaction, only an reaction towards the total discounting of some - as I see it, important insights, which gains credibility by the day, whereas your own wisdom seems to based solely on - we may not agree here - already found out - hedonic reporting!

Have a great X-Mas - cb2

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/18/2003; 12:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113718)

Pushing Just-In-Time Operations and Delivery Capabilities to the Limit!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Am I too late to have a jewelry order shipped in time for Christmas?
There is still time!! We've managed to pull out all the stops to be able to extend the ordering window to accommodate the last-minute rush. To facilitate this very tight delivery schedule for all in-stock items, we must receive any phone orders by 4:00PM Mountain Standard Time on Friday, December19th. Additionally, orders can be submitted online as late as Monday, December 22nd by 8:00AM MST for Christmas-eve delivery.

contrarian

(12/18/2003; 12:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113719)

aginfast--since it's easy to do, why would Wall Street need Fed's help

I'm not an expert on this, but here's your answer. here's a basic lesson on the way Wall Street works:
they don't play with their money--they play with YOUR money, and then take a profit.

They know how treacherous trading is, and I can't imagine them being stupid enough to put their own capital at risk.

They'll, of course, be happy to put your capital at risk, and do this every day.

Therefore, it's so convenient for them to act as agents for the Fed, supplied with the Fed's funds from the secretive Exchange Stabilization Fund.

Pizz

(12/18/2003; 12:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113720)

Jing Zu, All

No, not gold. Tend to keep that for myself, although I did use a couple ounces to pay a friend for help during the sale of my house - he would have preferred cash, but now he's starting to see the golden light so to speak.

We've got a 25 dollar limit on gifts, and I've got some 4.50 silver. I'm going to try to find out two things. The first will be if anyone knows the current price, and second, there will be quite a few "good bottles of booze" under the tree. Hmm, 5 0z of silver or a half gallon of whiskey? Odd are on the whiskey in my mind. . . .haven't adjusted to the "good old boy" country style of life as of yet. . .
---------------------
Speaking of country life, and thinking of Black Blade, I'm really glad I made the move, but if I never have to go thru the last six months again, it will be too soon.

What I've accomplished is to get liquid, nearly debt free, pretty moble if need be, and off the city life treadmill that keeps being ed up as everyone scrambles for a bigger piece of the shrinking pie.

City folks probably need BB's emergency, rely on yourself, and I plan on eating while you starve, outlook on life more than country folks if the SRHTF. But when you live 35 miles out in the sticks, a winter snow storm (which we've had) can put a major dent in the "just in time", I need to go to the store for food life style.

I keep remembering Trapper, and his "live simple" outlook. Trapper, if you're out there lurking, show up once in a while, love to hear from you. . .

Pizz

contrarian

(12/18/2003; 12:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113721)

regarding BLS inflation statistics

this is nothing new...but BLS inflation stats are totally bogus, just to repeat for the record...since they exclude health, energy, housing, education, and food (I think).

My health insurance is going to cost 15% more next year!

Why do they try to keep inflation stats low? Both because it looks good and encourages foreigners to continue to invest here, and also it means they have to pay lower cost of living adjustments to social security recipients, veterans, govt pensioners, etc.

Jing Zu

(12/18/2003; 13:29:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113722)

@Pizz

Sounds great! I would take the silver.. I know what the booze does for me... Uhgg...

Sounds like you've bee busy that last few months getting things ready..

Super.. You will not be disapointed, I'm sure.

Later,

JinZu

Subcomandante Tomas

(12/18/2003; 13:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113723)

On Yuan

@Goldilox

Thanks for your thoughts on the Yuan. In one scenario, it could be one last chance to cash in on the dollar's decline, but, like you said, probably very risky.

TownCrier

(12/18/2003; 13:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113724)

A whimsical thought on the big event, 'The Return of the King'

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/BritKings.htmlA reviewer wrote:

"The Return of the King on its own isn't just the best film of the year -- it may be the most fantastical film ever to be about, simply, what it means to be alive and in the world."

So many points resonate so well on so many levels, this is no mere movie but rather a remarkable achievement in High Art, succeeding (where so many other practitioners have dabbled and failed) in inspiring passions for living, striving for a better life amid seemingly endless temptations and adversities.

On a tangible level, I am reminded of the subtle satisfying effect wielded by gold, set squarely against a world of leveraged paper illusions cast about by swarming legions of Wall Street hucksters. To hold gold is to take one step closer to feeling what it means to be alive and in the world as a small person toiling to carve out your own shining destiny amidst the gathering smoke.

In the spirit of 'The Return of the King', what better way to fight the good fight and to celebrate life than with a few golden kings of your own! And best of all, if you flip them over, you can muster your own cavalry!

See url above, and call USAGOLD-Centennial to help you, in Gandalf's words, decide "what to do with the time that is given to you."

And above all else, treat yourself to this very fine show.

Randy

Black Blade

(12/18/2003; 14:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113725)

Industrial trade organization reports 41-month "natural gas crisis" in US

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=194734Snippit:

HOUSTON, Dec. 17 -- The Washington-based Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA) sent the US Congress a report showing that natural gas prices increased 83% during a 41-month period, costing cost consumers more than $111 billion. Saying that the "gas crisis" started in June 2000, the report compared the current 41-month Henry Hub price with the previous 41 months.

"The natural gas crisis has had a staggering direct and indirect impact on all consumers, the US economy, and especially manufacturing," said IECA Executive Director Paul N. Cicio. "The $111 billion is just the tip of the iceberg, and it cost the economy a lot of jobs that may never return."

"Every penny of the $111 billion could have been prevented and was totally unnecessary. The US is blessed with enormous natural gas reserves, yet we do not lift drilling moratoriums," the report said. "Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to these high and sustained natural gas prices that are the highest in the world," the report said. It also said that manufacturing jobs are affected when gas prices rise significantly.

Every US economic recession has been preceded by high energy prices, and this recession was no different. IECA believes the natural gas crisis started in June 2000. Government officials say the US recession officially began in March 2001," the report said.

Black Blade: As I have been saying all along. It should be an interesting winter as higher energy costs hit consumers and corporations.

Dollar Bill

(12/18/2003; 14:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113726)

*>*

http://www.wallstreetscandals.com/PARTII/mckenna01.htmlJohn Thain, new head of the NYSE, not exactly pristine.

Federal_Reserves

(12/18/2003; 14:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113727)

In my mind when someone says "FED"

that means the NY FED + all the NY money center banks like JPM, Goldman, Citi, who by way carry significant inventories of bonds, stocks, commodities, and buy and sell using FED provided liquidity.

Remember the money center banks run the NY FED. There is no real difference between the two. The banks give orders to the FOMC. Its really that simple.

The FED is not a government run institution. Long ago,
the US congress gave up the right to print its own money
to a private monoply called the FED.

And sure as hell the FED can cause a crash, they've let things get out of control many times.

R Powell

(12/18/2003; 14:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113728)

Pizz

I'm glad to hear you've sold the "city" property and settled into country life. I knew a fellow who lives in the woods and travels to the "city" (nearby town) only about once a month for necessities. He always knew the season but often did not know what day of the week it was and sometimes not the month of the year.

As for the reading of a Rhode Island Red's entrails, as you know, it must be done at midnight under the new moon which won't be until the 23rd this month. But I'm watching silver and saw the march contract hit your 575 number today--the high was 575.5, settlement was 572.8. Does this number have significance?

As for information, the Chinese have been mining and buying copper- huge amounts (along with soybeans, steel, scrap metals and cotton). A great deal of silver comes as by-product copper mining. I'm wondering if the increased by-product silver production is more or less than the increase in silver demand.(?) I believe the yearly figures will show that the silver supply/demand deficit continues, on a worldwide scale, but will the Chinese increase in copper mining produce excess Chinese silver for export? Reports of such were a detriment to price support last year. Silver from film can be reclaimed with cheap labor and less intrusive environmental laws so that recycling in China has supplied film making demand also in China and this resulted in last year's export of some silver, again from China.

New information is scarce but imho the silver market doesn't consider supply/demand numbers at all. Nor does silver travel through Comex on its route from miner to end user so Comex continues to be the speculative game. This is true of many commodities but others like cotton and coffee do react to yearly supply and demand numbers. This is true, I guess, as there is the possibility that there simply won't be enough. This year there are not enough $5.00/bushel soybeans in the world. Are there enough $7.50/bushel beans? Butler has decided that manipulation is the answer for the never rising silver prices but I believe it is simply that the market does not watch supply/demand at all. What does that leave for price direction? It is this oblivion to the laws of supply and demand that have created the potential for a silver move to be a "life style altering event". I've often wondered how the price will react when news of some physical shortage hits the media. I've mentioned before that the POS dropped 7 cents on the day that Bush signed into law the bill authorizing the Treasury to buy silver to continue the Philly Mint coin program. That should have alerted the world that the billions of ounces of U.S. silver are really gone. What moves th price?

More latter, any other silvery thoughts?
Rich

Melting Pot

(12/18/2003; 15:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113729)

Paper Avalanche: Options Expiry

http://sites2.barchart.com/pl/alaron/optqte.htx?sym=GCZ3
Gold Options: Exp: 12/23/03 Days to Exp: 5

There is a complete listing of expiry dates at the above link. Hope this helps.

Cheers

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 15:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113730)

Puzzle for Fed watchers

For the week ended 12-10-03 the Federal Reserve balance sheet showed total securities holdings (owned outright plus repos) of $691.4 bil. -- a year-over-year increase of $59.5 bil. Now the just-released balance sheet for the week ended 12-17-03 shows total securities holdings (owned outright plus repos) of an almost identical $691.5 bil. -- but (correctly) shows a year-over-year gain of only $36.8 bil. Annual gains will now continue close to the latter number.
Gotta wait and see if this week's (correct) numbers trigger an explosive new outburst from Mogambo. (Last week's numbers were also correct.)

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 15:47:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113731)

Also re: Fed Balance Sheet

Mogambo likes to look at, and complain bitterly about, the first item on the balance sheet, Reserve Bank Credit, which a week ago was $731.2 bil. -- a year-over-year increase of a whopping (as he might say) $60.5 bil. -- but which this week is a slightly higher $731.9 bil. -- but up only $39.3 bil. year-over-year. Both the $60.5 bil. and the $39.3 bil. are correct.

Gandalf the White

(12/18/2003; 16:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113732)

ALL HAIL KING ARAGORN III ---- <;-)

"The Town Crier" said"
---
In the spirit of , what better way to fight the good fight and to celebrate life than with a few golden kings of your own! And best of all, if you flip them over, you can muster your own cavalry! (St. George --- Thanks Randy!)

See url above, and call USAGOLD-Centennial to help you, in Gandalf's words, decide "what to do with the time that is given to you."

And above all else, treat yourself to this very fine show.

Randy
---
Having JUST returned from seeing the 'The Return of the King' with the Hobbits, I can advise you that indeed the decision of "what to do with the time that is given to you", is, even more so, foremost in MY mind !

I shall try harder to protect my family's future with the YELLOW !

HAIL the KING ARAGORN III !

(and 'Well Done' Sir Smeagol.)

PS: The dogs ARE resting and will be ready for NEXT WEEK !
<;-)

spotlight

(12/18/2003; 16:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113733)

Federal reserves

Federal reserves:

You wrote,
Long ago,the US congress gave up the right to print its own money to a private monoply called the FED.
********************************************

I have always understood that the mechanics of increasing the money supply required (1) raising the national debt. (2) Issuing and sales of T-debt.at auction.

Any new additional currency needed would then be printed by the treasury. Any profits on T-debt made by the fed through open market sales would be returned to the government, less expenses.

Credit expansion, being separate from the actual printing of
new federal reserve notes, creates a loan liability and rests mainly with public and private enterprise.

The fed can inject liquidity into the banking system by buying T-debt. The T-debt then becomes the asset backing the injection.

What are the mechanics of the Feds printing of money as per your statement? Can the fed order at will the printing of as much money as it wants? Does it require permission?

Is your statement connected to a law that congress passed long ago that gave the Fed the right to monetize just about anything it considered an asset? If so, you are correct in the fact that the fed can create credit by monetization. However congress can still, without the permission of the fed, raise the national debt and order bonds issued for the amount of the increase. Unless there has been a change that I am not aware of, the actual order for "printing of money" still resides exclusively with congress.

R Powell

(12/18/2003; 16:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113734)

Hounds day off

Gandalf:....

"PS: The dogs ARE resting and will be ready for NEXT WEEK !"
<;-)

I like your strategy. Give the hounds tomorrow as a day off so they can rest for three days. Then turn them loose early Monday in London!

CoBra(too)

(12/18/2003; 16:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113735)

Bubble, bubble, toils and Trouble ... @ Agingfast

Couldn't resist to pass on Dan Norcini's take in today's MIDAS:

"Watching the current insanity taking place in the bond market is only a fitting reminder of the parasitical hold of central bankers over national economies. Commodity prices are on a tear and the dollar is dropping like a lead weight and interest rates get pushed even lower because the Fed mumbled some incoherent phrase - "considerable period"? If that were not enough, it let loose the secret mantra known only to its initiates that the job scene might not turn around until 2005. So the bond guys get to believe that the job situation is atrocious and the stock guys get to believe that the job situation is wonderful allat the exact same time! How's that for "accommodating" Fed policy.

In the real world where logic applies there is binary - "1" or '0" ; on or off; "A" and "not A". In the worm hole in space in which the Fed dwells, logic and reason are not welcome - there is only "THE PLAN".

All to accommodate the Frankenstein's in their academic laboratories as they toil over the bubbling cauldrons of potions and elixirs like Macbeth's witches: "Double, double, toil and trouble; Fire burn and cauldron bubble." All we need is some eye of newt and some wing of bat and the formula will no doubt be complete.

In the meantime, we watch the madness continue. It appears to me that the game is now turning to the bond pit as gold is a lost cause for the cabal. Yes, they are still making their obnoxious presence felt, but that gig is up as gold is goi9ng up no matter what they try. However - the one big positive is that opportunities always exist where central bankers meddle.
Dan

Q: Do CB's meddle? And I don't mean cb2's

melda laure

(12/18/2003; 16:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113736)

If this is victory then our hands are too small to hold it.

Thus said his kinsmen to Thror, "even with one eye you should see more clearly. If this be victory then our hands are too small to hold it."

I recently cashed out a little pile of silver stocks in exchange for a rather heavy pile of the real stuff. (and some yellow stuff too). There is nothing more frustrating than to win at the casino and find you cant take all your winnings home. We call that a hollow victory, and sometimes the hole left where your friends used to be is a very big one.

I rather liked the movie in spite of the fact I'm getting too old for war movies. It's been quite a week, Saddam on sunday, New movie on Wednesday. Maybe we'll get $500 POG on friday. I have a wager on before the feast of solus victus. The days, they grow short do they not?

We shall have victory. At what cost we have yet to see.

Auta i lome!
Aure entuluva.

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 17:03:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113737)

CB2 - Bubble, bubble

Yep, it's all psychology and jawboning. The Fed doesn't have to buy a lot of Treasuries itself (it bought only $36.8 bil. in the last 12 months to offset the drain in reserves resulting from a $38.1 bil. rise in currency in circulation) and it doesn't have to make under-the-table financing available to dealers so they can prop up the stock and bond markets. It's just a matter of making everyone feel good and relying on the fact that people who hold part of the enormously inflated money supply (including conservative folks who were taught that a penny saved is a penny earned) eventually will either fritter away the money at the mall or use it to buy wildly over-priced financial assets.

CoBra(too)

(12/18/2003; 17:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113738)

@ Agingfast

For the first time I could - almost - agree! Though, judging from your prior posts I'm having heck of a time to even believe your sincerity.

Never the less, let's bury the axe, for a while anyway, and have a great X-Mas one and all ... cb2

Toolie

(12/18/2003; 18:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113739)

The following snipped from a stock pumping press release:

The largest most profitable corporations are moving quietly but ever so quickly to establish new markets for as many new health products to combat the many new disease strains creeping into societies around the world.
��
New antibacterial textiles are coming and they are coming big time with profits to these companies the likes that have not been seen for years. Antibacterial textiles for consumer goods to be purchased by everyone around the world to protect their families and themselves, happy with a new medical comfort to give them a greater peace of mind. These new SILVER bactericidal formulas will be in products like surgical threads, doctors' coats, and bandages plus new products not yet open to the public. SILVER offers tremendous antistatic properties and is a tremendous heat conductor. New fibers are making their way into our societies today. Bacteria is killed by SILVER, with SILVER ions, which being very bioreactive, will attach with proteins inside and outside bacterial cell membranes. Stopping reproduction and limiting cell respiration is a key to stopping disease from multiplying, and SILVER, is the WINNER for our societies. Wearing clothes for exercise will be one of the main classes of profits of these large corporations. Socks, exercise clothes, t-shirts, running gear, high end cycling clothing: and any and all new ideas we have not heard of yet by these profit generating corporations from their research and development laboratories. In today's world, photography is normally considered the biggest use of SILVER. This is about to change. Photography is about to lose first place and go to second or third place. (end snip)

I hope that I've not strayed past the boundaries with this post. I do think that this is news worthy, especially for the fashion conscious.

It appears that all of those �50's sci-fi movies were correct.

Agingfast

(12/18/2003; 18:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113740)

CB2

You mystify me. There is nothing inconsistent between those comments and any of my earlier comments.

misetich

(12/18/2003; 19:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113741)

U.S. Recovery? Tell It to the Unemployed

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=4017288Snip:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (Reuters) - For Diane Back, the growing U.S. economic recovery still feels like a recession.

Her husband, Ed, and youngest son, Alan, have PhD and MBA degrees between them but both have been out of work for months in this prosperous banking town.

"The economy is supposed to be inching back up, but we don't see any jobs being created. I was at a support group for job hunters last night and that room was just full of experience and talent," she said.
..................
Out of Charlotte's top biggest publicly listed companies, 25 have used outsourcing to cut costs, according to a survey taken over the last three months and published on Sunday by the Charlotte Observer newspaper.

"This is the hidden story of the U.S. economy. We hear all these great numbers for growth, but in North Carolina, it's not doing great at all for the folks without work," said Bobby Sutton, an associate dean at the Southern Piedmont Community College which runs training course for Charlotte's unemployed.
****************
Misetich

You've got to feel for unemployed. Daily headlines trumpet the farce of economic growth, yet jobs are disappearing and those being created are temporary in nature, poorer paying...

The Feds keep on pumping the nonsense medicinal "good news" fuelled by open spigots of stimuli

Attempts to "reflate" SM, manipulate IR, bonds, contain housing bubble, is proving to be a wee much for the Feds, thus KING GOLD, has emerged flexing its young muscles

Many have not noticed yet - distracted by the Feds reflation of Dow indexes- however the internal foundations are getting weaker

Japan has joined the US Feds in utilizing hedonics in their economic recovery and voila- they've also reported outstanding GDP growth recently -

..yet the ranks of the unemployed is swelling in both countries

...you fall from within, before you fall from without...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Smeagol

(12/18/2003; 19:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113742)

ALMOSST well done, O Wizard of wizards! @ Gandalf the White (12/18/03; 16:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 113732)

....ALMOSST well done, O yess!

We apologizes for the odd-topic posst, but we cant resist -please don't kick us out, we promises we wont abuse great Round Table privileges! - but we HASS to reply to all this and many earlier possts. Others may roll their eyes and sskip to the next ones. O well...

To: Gondolin of the golden tongue, and the Grateful Lady, and of course Gandalf and Melda and all the other 'LoTR' Story-tellers/lovers round the Table.

The Gold Trail goes ever on, with tricksy curves sometimes at unawares. The Story goes ever on, too, yess likewise. You may have read Master's account (much better than the moving pictures, they left lots out and added and twisted many things (us the more sso) but we've resigned ourselfs to expect that from those... folk), but here is 'the resst of (our) story'.

We losst the Ring, ach!.... into the Fire, and many things changed then. As the Black Tower fell the Mountain burned, and almost killed poor Smeagol too. Fire whips a body worse than Rings! Barely we DID escape, but to no hope, choking on smoke and dusst, blinded, down the ashy Mountain we crawled. Alone, O so very alone, no Master, no Ring, no food, no hope, no sight, and it grew cold, so cold and shivery, and we fell into darkness, and remembers nothing. In the lasst black dreams someone came, and found Smeagol, and thought he was dead. And we was, for all it mattered. No Precious and no hope. But they took us, and rescued us and fed us, and set us back on our feets - we didn't count days, we didn't care about anything anymore. And one day it was as if we woke up and could see clear again, without the terrible Fiat- urr... Ring, no, not like before, and we were very hungry, and one day we remembered Master, and saw events in another way. Nassty Samwise hobbit, sss... he would have left Smeagol to die, but not Frodo, no, he would not have left us. We set out to find him, if he sstill lived, to thank him for pitying us, and to tell him we understands it all now, and we didn't mean to hurt him like the Ring made us do. We owed him that. And find him, Smeagol did!

You see, Smeagol went over Sea too. Stowed away in the Last Ship, jusssssst in time! O! What a surprise Master and the others had, when they found out! How else could we have come to this Table, to trouble all you Great Ones? (cackle) (but mean Samwise hobbit was not a happy camper, was he, O no Precious not at all!) (ear-to-ear green-eyed grin).

Now Smeagol journeys again, only this time on a kinder trail on a kinder Mountain, trying to sstay out from under Giant feet, lurking and lisstening to the counsels and wisdom, re-reading the Archives over again, always with sskeptical eyes (and no disrespects at all, O no, to the Great Ones - it is jusst a habit of ours, considering our passt), to gather and assay golden bits of knowledge as one does bits of It. We musst all tesst every word, nowadays, to sstay on the right Trail.

Thanks you all, for putting up with us.

S.
--------------

It was indeed the surprise of the Age to see him again. Having never sailed the Sea, it was a terrible ordeal for him, as was waiting for the Valar to decide whether he would be allowed to set foot on the shores of the Blessed Realm, or be sent back without hope to a fading Middle-earth. Who would have known, that Gollum would one day stand in the Circle of Doom! Yet after all, he was a Ring-bearer, and for my part he has the higher honor, for it was I that failed the Quest at last, while he succeeded in a way not even the Great could have guessed, and achieved Sauron's end.

You might not recognize him now - living in the Blessed Realm has done much to heal his long pain. Properly dressed, if the light is right he could almost pass for a very old (and very odd) Hobbit, though he will always be a bit thin around the middle. He has even made some friends here, yet I fear he will never truly come to love the Elves. He still loves fish, and he always keeps a gold coin (his 'Precious', now) in his pocket.

.....come to think of it, so do I.

F. B.

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 19:32:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113743)

FED numbers

Regarding today's earlier conversation about FED statistics, I found this at the neighbor's:

snippit:

The MCDI's Jump

Last Friday the major currency dollar index as reported by the Federal
Reserve at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/update/
Was recorded as:
8-Dec-03___83.72
9-Dec-03___83.92
10-Dec-03__84.11
11-Dec-03__84.62
12-Dec-03__83.96

On Monday December 15, 2003 the major currency dollar index was reported as follows:

15-Dec-03__86.27
16-Dec-03__86.26
17-Dec_03__86.18

We all know the widely viewed dollar index DYXO has been falling each of the days in question so how is it that the major currency dollar index suddenly gains 2.75% over the weekend? There are periodic adjustments to the weighting but the last such adjustment was in January 2003 with none announced since.

goldilox:

good question!!

Goldilox

(12/18/2003; 19:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113744)

Dog Day afternoon

@ Gandolf:

If the CABAl shows up tomorrow, we'll sick the cats on them.

Goldfly

(12/18/2003; 20:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113745)

Black Blade - How'd that auction go?

http://www.iacr.org/misc/china/china.htmlHere's my idea of Chinese ornaments. These would look really nice around your tree.

Trapper

(12/18/2003; 21:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113746)

Sir PIZZ

Nice to be remembered. So you "live in the woods" do you. Great ain't it! I lived in the upper pensulia of Michigan for 12 years on the lake Superior side, it was 35 miles to a movie etc. After a few years in Atlanta GA I moved be to the u p of Michigan but on the lake Michigan side. I don't get lake effect snow here. I'm sure you will enjoy the bush but you have to learn new ways of doing things, much like buying gold instead of t-bills. How to can your own vension and salmon. I'm getting older now and I can't do the 20 miles a day on snowshoes any more so the trap line is a bit shorter now. Let me know if I can help you out in your new endevor in any way. "live small"
RJ

steady

(12/19/2003; 04:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113747)

unoficial recognition.

its great to be unofficially recognized! :+)

Boilermaker

(12/19/2003; 06:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113748)

Inflation?

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/12/16/rtr1182715.htmlSnip;
NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Nucor Corp. (nyse: NUE - news - people), the largest U.S. steel producer, on Tuesday said it will add a raw materials surcharge to its steel mill products starting next year, because of the higher cost of scrap and other materials.

The Charlotte, North Carolina company said it is setting a $20 per ton raw materials surcharge beginning with shipments on Jan. 1. The surcharge will be adjusted on the third Monday of each month, based on raw material cost changes from the previous month.

Nucor said in a statement that the "unprecedented" increase in the cost of raw materials such as scrap, coke, iron ore, freight, alloys and energy can no longer be absorbed through normal price increases.

comment
These raw materials increases will impact steelmakers worldwide. The demand from Asia is creating higher prices. My 92 Ford Taurus might be worth more in the scrap yard than on the road.
Pizz, can you get me a new (used) ride? What do you recommend? :)

Boilermaker

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/19/2003; 06:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113749)

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as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!

Omega gold jewelry

Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

Pizz

(12/19/2003; 07:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113751)

Boilermaker

In the coming rough times, transportation issues will be a concern.

New vehicles are built with way too many high tech options that break and are expensive to fix. Labor rates in metro markets are approaching 100 bucks per hour, and high tech parts (electronics, etc.) are REAL expensive in the aftermarkets.

Unfortunately, I cannot recommend domestic manufacturers, because our stuff breaks more often, and does not last near as long.

As far as cars, I'd recommend any of the top Japanese manufactuers, around four years old with around 50K for mileage. Stick to base models with as few options as possible - less stuff to break, I'd even go with hand crank windows. Automatic transmissions are preferred, no clutches to replace. Aftermarket parts are readily available. The Japanese build drive trains to last. Maintain them and 250K for miles is common.

You'll pay 20% more for any of these as compared to domestics, but they will last twice as long.

Pay cash if you can, then take what you save in payments and invest in something that will appreciate - gold and silver would be a good recommndation (smile).

Pizz

Boilermaker

(12/19/2003; 08:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113752)

Pizz

Thanks for the advice. Very close to my own opinion. I've never spent more than $7800 for a car, never had a car payment and I don't worry about the kids wanting to borrow it. My wife drives a Mercedes SUV. I've got the gold, she doesn't.

Boilermaker

Jing Zu

(12/19/2003; 08:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113753)

Yes, Excellent advice, Pizz....

I would suggest the same thing. It is nice to see people thinking the same sometimes...

I purchased my last Mercedes 420 for 6800 and put about 4000 into a new top end (cams,ricker arms, timing chaing and guides,as well as some extras) fixed it up as good as new!

So, I have about 11,000 in it, but as good,I think better than a new car...

I have a good friend that is a Mercedes mechanic which helps a lot and we did most of the work ourselves. It was interesting and I was able to learn some things about my vehicle.

Excellent advise for anyone...

Thanks for being here..

Jing Zu

Jing Zu

(12/19/2003; 08:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113754)

Who is buying the $ ????

I suppose the FED is? It sure is going up a lot.... I would think that it will fall back shortly because all those other countries want to get rid of their Fed Notes and they will be able to sell for more now..

This is how it works, I think?? This is correct isn't it?

JingZu

Paper Avalanche

(12/19/2003; 09:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113755)

@ Boliermaker - Next year's story

Happy holidays Sir Boilermaker!

From your post...

"The Charlotte, North Carolina company said it is setting a $20 per ton raw materials surcharge beginning with shipments on Jan. 1. The surcharge will be adjusted on the third Monday of each month, based on raw material cost changes from the previous month."

I would imagine that next year's story will read....

"The surcharge will be adjusted EVERY Monday, based on raw material cost changes from the previous WEEK."

Hyperinlaftion nears.

Take care.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(12/19/2003; 09:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113756)

BTW, my options expiration theory is still holding...

Thank you Melting Pot for the terrific link to help me locate options expiry info.

IMO, we are range bound between now and 12/23 with every breach of $410 being met with a downward spike of two to three dollars to keep the $410 calls out of the money.

I beleive that we will end 2003 between $420 and $425 (for what its worth).

I may be wrong. I often am.

PA

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 09:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113757)

Options Expiry

@ PA, MP:

Townie and I discussed this during last month's expiration. It's interesting to watch options do battle around the nearest ITM/OTM breakpoint during expirations week. The miners (whose options expire today) are struggling, as is spot. There seems to be a lot of action trying to force them down pre-expiration.

I'd love to hear some of the pundits who have some insight into potential derivative "meltdown" discuss this action and how they think it might be affected by larger moves in the upward path.

Skydog

(12/19/2003; 10:17:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113758)

Jing Zu, Boilermaker, Pizz

Would like to add my two cents worth to the rough times that are facing us. Learn how everything you own works that is prone to wear out. I am talking about autos, HVAC systems, home appliances...everything!!! In a hyper-inflated economey making intelligent fix/replace decisions will save you a fortune! If you don't know how something works, Google searches reveal a virtual treasure trove of "How it works" information.

For example, The AC went out on the newer of our two cars. (92 model with 148,000 miles) I got estimates to fix ranging from $350-$800 because it had the older R-10 freon system. I found a website with Google that explained everything you ever wanted to know about auto AC retro-fits. Armed with that information, I then talked with my home heating/ac guy and he did the change over for $85 dollars....BIGGGGG difference!! If I would have had the right tools/gauges at the time I would have attempted the job myself.

I live about eight miles from the largest flea market in South Houston. I am slowly, but surely equiping myself with every hand and power tool imaginable needed to get me and my family through the bad times. Knowing how to do something and bartering for other goods and services will become commonplace...IMO!

One last thought on auto maintence. Having your own diagnostic computer with the data for your vehicles isn't a bad idea either. Keeps the repair shops honest! I was fortunate to find a good used Snap-On model for about $250.

Skydog

admin

(12/19/2003; 10:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113759)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

That Was the Week That Was.
New Stein.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 10:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113761)

how now, dow?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=dmax
I find the chart at the link simply bizarre. It only goes up. It never corrects. It doesn't slow down. And now it shoots up like a watermelon seed that someone has squeezed between his thumb and forefinger. Maybe regular payroll deductions going into stocks partly explain this. Maybe the increased spending for the war also partly explains it. And maybe low interest rates contribute to it. Perhaps the news stories about the 'jobless recovery' help it to go up. Optimism makes people do all sorts of things.

But what are stocks really? They are quasi deeds to companies' assets (which include their growth potential and their earnings). Strictly on this basis alone, there is no justification that I know of, for the Dow to go up in this way. So either I am unaware of something, or there is some knowable reason. Granting that I am not unaware of much that is generally available for people to be aware of, in the form of public news information, the possibility that there might be some covert information still has to be considered. And surely there is information I don't possess. Not possessing it, I cannot process it, but can only seek it. Meanwhile, the other possibility -that there may be a knowable explanation- includes the fact that public perception, by itself, independent of truth or reality, may be sufficient to explain the DOW's actions, and this is attractive to perceive. This I can see. Therefore I can dealt with it.

First, most people who invest in stocks do so without much understanding or knowledge, and this is enabled, and even encouraged, by the investment industry. Second, much of the information that they do get is typically simply incorrect or intentionally misrepresented, not only by the firms themselves, but by information presented to be public generally. Third, the cumulative action of those who put their money into stocks is itself sufficient to determine price, without any other truth or reality having to be made to apply. No matter what the technical facts might be, if enough people believe a particular thing about a market, it need appear no different from the way it would appear if it were true. And I suspect that this is the correct explanation. We all know, or seem to know, that there is no good reason for stocks to be going up now, but if everyone else thinks they should, our belief makes no difference. Nonetheless, assuming the DOW's present ascent to be grotesque, and without describing the lovely outcome which a proper public education in such matters would bring about, one potentially useful question at hand must be, "How far can this effect be carried?" Another such question must be, "What is going to happen when it can be carried no further?"

I am not an amateur. But neither am I a consumate expert. Yet to me it seems clear that managed information is having its effect, and that these are extra-ordinary means. They are also artificial. And this has got to mean that when they are removed, however they may come to be removed, accurate perceptions of reality must prevail. For if this were not true, reality would have no relevance in the world. And we know from our own experience, or we should, that reality does matter, that it is in fact truth and reality, not mere appearance, which are the ultimate substance of the world, and of all life, including human life.

People think they are buying stocks for good reasons, and when good reasons exist, they may be. But when the only cause is appearances, not substance, their actions are based on illusion. When practiced on this scale, either illusion must at some point give way, or those with illusions must keep them. These are the people you can fool all the time. Everyone else learns what is.

Therefore, as this change happens, the deluded view becomes overturned and can no longer be sustained. This explanation is not a personal view. It is a description of possibilities as they exist. A government -particularly a democracy- can be expected to do everything possible to avoid this unsustainability. And so, since the illusion is great, the attempt will be great also. I should expect then, that the government would go to great lengths to avoid such truths coming to light, and that, in doing so, people working in government will make choices whose outcomes will be, stricly speaking, abnormal, extreme, without authentic compassion or good judgement, sociopathic even, and that the results of those choices will tend to benefit them in the short term, and to harm everyone ultimately. For this reason I do not look to see an immediate catastrophe in the stock market, though some type of associated disaster does ultimately seem inevitable. Rather, I think it is more consistent with the way things generally tend to devolve, that symptoms of the disease will continue to take diverse forms, the same as they have been doing, and that attempts to contradict them will continue to be observable as being in conflict with reality. Relevant to this argument is the observation that many people -some of whom experience success in government employment- chronically try to resolve every problem by attacking the problem's most obvious manifestations, instead of working to understand each problem's cause and straightening that out.

When will people learn? Well, we have a long way to go yet. This present era is not even a tiny speck on the universe's enormous clock, though it may be central to our minds and hearts.

Stocks though, except for gold mining companys, I would not buy them, even with a fiat dollar.

But gold feels good in your hand. It's heavy. It feels like something. And it is. It's pretty to look at, even beautiful. It doesn't tarnish, the Fed can't create it out of lead, and, right now, it doesn't cost as much as it's going to. Buy some. It's good for you.

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 10:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113762)

...

I apologize for the double post. I don't know how it happened.

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 11:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113763)

a nation of one - Why are stocks being bought?

Just part of the panic-stricken flight from zero-yielding cash.

Pizz

(12/19/2003; 11:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113764)

PM Market Action

Remember a few months back when trying to buy the dips in anything PM related resulted in the conundrum "which dip is the last one" as the shorts drove everything down?

Now it seems that it is tough to get in on the dips if you deal in any volume. Nice.

Next step in the evolution of the bull will be the shorts dealing with the gap ups. . . .

Right now all the shorts can do is pray for a dollar rally, and the only way we can get that is with a substantial interest rate hike (not likely), a declining budget deficit (less likely), a sharp drop in the price oil, or as a last resort devine intervention.

Pretty much strong holders now. More afraid of being left behind than of short term fluctuations. . .REAL NICE!!! Makes the floor just a bit stronger.

Now I just wish someone could or would sent out the following Xmas gifts of "SHORT 1 Million Oz. of Au", locked in for 5 years, have a nice day. . .to

Bush & Company, Greenspan, Clinton, Rubin, Snow, and all the CNBC staff with the exception of Kudlow and Cramer, and they get 10 Million Oz short. . . .

Wonder if they'd buy to offset the liability. . . .

Pizz

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 11:28:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113765)

Murdock - GM deal

@ a nation of one:

In line with your ponderings, the press is reporting today that the Murdoch-GM deal for his acquisition of DirectTV. Now the "Fair and Balanced" news network will own a little more than half of the satellite market. This strongly enables him in his battles with the cable companies for programming control.

The three repubs on the FCC comitttee are gleeful about the deal, and the lone demo is said to be holding out for some concessions in the terms and limitations.

FOX has aligned itself strongly with the Bush administration by flooding its talk shows with NeoCon "talking heads" who call anyone questioning bush policies as traitors, especially drug-addled airheads like Limbaugh. Administration agenda is pushed to the detriment of any freedoms or intelligent debate.

What has been their reward?

For the Bush Thanksgiving troop visit, CNN (who embittered the Bush family with its tenacity in Iraq Invasion I) was bounced from its White House press turn in favor of FOX, for "security concerns".

The Michael Powell led FCC has not only relaxed the requirements limiting press monopolies in local broadcast markets, but also is dropping its previous anti-trust concerns about Murdoch owning DirectTV. It appears Michael's agenda is to do all he can to assist non-American Rupert Murdoch in his desire to monopolize the US broadcast industry.

Is Bush selling the White House to corporate interests as suggested by the demo candidates (not that they don't do the same). These actions by Sec. Powell's son certainly add evidence to that effect.

Big Corp uses recessions to get bigger. Small business and consumers struggle to survive. Negative growth is hidden in the "strange" numbers coming out of the gubmint and FED. The best indicator that the recession is not over, is the defensive attitude in the markets and businesses. Growing markets go on the offensive.

Federal_Reserves

(12/19/2003; 11:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113766)

The DOW's rally - who is buying/selling.

Here are the blunt facts.

You are looking at an index that is managed by the the NYC money center banks, most of which
hold considerable inventory of these stocks. Most of the stock in that index (66%) is also owned by the
big mutual funds. They collude together to move the price upward at their whim, and trade against
not with the public. The mutual fund scandals just released are a testament to this.

As the public buys the top, the banks unload out of their inventory taking huge profits,
and as the market rolls over and begins to drop, they start to buy the bottoms. buying from the paniced public. Since the NYC banks are the specialists in these stocks, they can see the demand/supply factors merely by looking at
the order books which are hidden from public view. They also know about all the economic indicators
and earnings reports BEFORE they become public. Believe me, when the banks are done distributing,
they will drop the price, and start issuing negative news reports, and blame it all on current events.

The NYSE recently named its new head - from Goldman Sachs. What does that tell you? Goldman just happened to announced
record earnings this quarter.

The average wall street smuck that works for the banks made a 60k bonus this month. That's about 2x the money
than the average working person makes in an entire year. Pretty much folks don't realize that the entire
operation is a scam, designed to make the operators fat profits. The operators have convinced the American
People that stocks are a retirement plan, when in fact, the economic purpose of the stock market has nothing
to do with that. Stock markets are for risk capital. Basing your retirement on that given the history of the
stock market could leave you hurting in your golden years.

specie-man

(12/19/2003; 11:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113767)

Automotive advice

I'm not a fan of today's "plastic fantastic" cars (domestic or import).

Give me some good old Detroit iron. I have several cars and the NEWEST one is a 1972 model. In my opinion these cars have a lot of positive attributes:

1. Simple to work on.
2. "Classic" - they hold their value (even go up in value).
3. Power - nothing like a big American V8.
4. Safe - yes I think they are safer than modern cars. No air bags (that is a plus in my opinion), no complicated ABS. They do have head restraints, lap & shoulder belts, side guard beams, collapsible steering columns, and enough mass to protect the occupants better than most modern cars.
5. Much cheaper to license and insure. No "smog" inspections required (in my state, anyway). My license plates are good for 5 years at a time because the cars are over 25 years old.
6. No catalytic converter and no legal restrictions on modifying the car. That does mean no platinum/palladium, however (there, now I've satisfied the required precious metals posting content).
7. No computer or OBDII (on-board diagnostics version 2). Do some research on OBDII and you'll see what I mean.
8. Cheap parts. Contrary to popular myth, parts for a lot of these cars are cheap and easy to come by. Many parts are currently being reproduced. If, for example, you had a '69 Camaro, you could get several fancy color parts catalogs where you can mail-order just about anything you'd need.

The only drawback I see to the older cars is gas mileage. I personally still come out way ahead due to the other savings.

steady

(12/19/2003; 11:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113768)

banks............. sheez what will they think of next

i just got off the phone with my bank as i wanted to permantely increase the amount of $ i can withdraw with my atm card, they told me 1) the request has to be in writting, 2) a managemnt review team has to review my applicationand decide if im worthy of taking my money out of there bank, and they get to decide how much i can withdraw daily with my atm card. fing chumps/
almost as bad as the part time paper pushing gold slackers over at comics!

wow. f that fing chumps telling me how many of my FRN i can withdraw and how many atms fees i will have to pay to get it out. frn notes surley arent my property not with that kinda draconian regulations revolving around there transference.

gold get u sim more i am as fast as i can , but this throws a monkey wrench into the process.

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 12:01:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113769)

Federal_Reserves

Wall Street has always been a highly profitable merchandising operation but today the Fed's cynical, zero-yielding-cash strategy must also be factored in. The money supply is enormously inflated and it will stay that way unless large amounts of bank loans are repaid. The problem is that cash doesn't disappear when people who are disgusted with their zero-yielding cash buy stocks -- or bonds, gold, silver, commodities, real estate, etc. The sellers of the stocks or other items don't want the zero-yielding cash either, so they buy something else and gradually, over time, the prices of all of the items rise together. It's questionable whether anything other than Fed tightening can halt those simultaneous bull markets -- and all of the experts say that Fed tightening is unlikely anytime soon.

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 12:03:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113770)

Price reversal

Who was it talking about price reversals a while back?

Current spot - 409.10
Dec Gold - 408.3
Feb Gold 409.9

Does quad witching have to do with this as well?

This may be a review, but I'd enjoy hearing theroies on spreads and reversals in current and future prices again, if it's OK.

Gandalf the White

(12/19/2003; 12:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113771)

IF you look NOW --- you may see the BEARISH KEY REVERSAL !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=iHear the trumpets sounding the WITHDRAWAL ?
The MAIN attack on HAMMERTON is UNDERWAY !
The ORCS are retreating !!
GOLD shall shine ! Gather while you may !!
<;-)

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 12:22:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113772)

Increased savings vehicles

CNBC is talking about Bush's plans for increased "tax protected" savings programs. Sounds like another IRA-401K scheme to KEEP ouir wealth tied up in their casinos.

Keep an eye on these and any allowed PM participation. Keeping gold in an IRA seems expensive to me, but all these plans are designed with the banking industry's profits in mind. Since when is my retirement money safer in their hands than mine? Look at 1929 or 2000 for your answer. Most 401Ks do not even offer much in the way of Bearish hedges, they just assume stuff will rise indefinitely.

Since taxes and inflation are both likely to rise in the not so distant future, tax deferral is not necessarily even a good deal for the consumer. Bush's tax plan lowered rates, but also lowered thresholds for rising into the next bracket. With only modest inflation, every earner in the US will be in the top tax bracket before long.

Given these concepts, saving physical gold is probably even more sensible. Get gold!

Gandalf the White

(12/19/2003; 12:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113773)

COMEX paper Gold endings ! <;-)

http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/custom.jsp?us=GC&mc=÷r=&fields=monthyear%2Cchgoldsettle%2Chigh%2Clow%2Copenint%2Clast%2Cvol%2Ctime&ref=300GCZ03 (Dec '03) SETTLE $409.2 CHANGE -$1.2 HIGH $411.2 low $408.1 Vol = 606
Yesterday's OI = 85
---
GCG04 (Feb '04) SETTLE $409.9 CHANGE -$1.2 HIGH $412.0 low $408.3 Vol = 37,184
Yesterday's OI = 196,567
===
WAIT until NEXT WEEK !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(12/19/2003; 12:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113774)

Sir Goldilox ---

YOUR data was "massaged" (just a little bit) by TPTB !
<;-)

Federal_Reserves

(12/19/2003; 13:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113775)

aging, thanks for that cogent post

Having safety retirement cash (money supply) flow into risky stocks (not included in money supply) and actually
reduce money supply is a dangerous proposition. If the stock market suddenly
contracts on a shock, the money supply can permanently contract, and with tepid loan demand, there would
be no way to quickly restore the banking deposits. This is why the current policy makes no sense. Its a massive
risk by the bankers, which could backfire.

The last trade of 100 shares can set the value for a stock. Tickers can be blazing away
trading thousands of shares @100 share, then a shock piece of news, trading halt, and the next trade
goes off at $50. Permanent value destruction of the stock and the cash just invested in it. During a shock, the same thing could happen to the whole stock market.

There is NO REDEMPTION VALUE on stocks like their is with bonds and cash. Its high risk.

sage

(12/19/2003; 13:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113776)

thanks to all

I am a long time lurker here and first time writer. I would like to personally thank all the people who post here regularly and have truly enlightened me to economic truths. I also would like to thank the people at USAGOLD. I am not a rich man and they have allowed me to begin on a journey of physical metal collection and education that would not be possible most other places. This place is as good as gold, spread the word and may all of you have a golden new year.

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 13:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113777)

Federal_Reserves

With all due respect, I don't believe a sudden contraction of stock prices would cause a sudden contraction in the money supply, unless the former was accompanied by a large-scale repayment of bank loans. As you pointed out, stocks are not included in the money supply -- cash and stocks are two different and separate assets. A seller of stocks who avoids a stock-price contraction has the cash received for the stock that was sold, and the decline in the price of the stock he sold doesn't cause a decline in the amount of cash he received through his sale of the stock. Without checking the numbers, I'd hazard a guess that the money supply did not contract sharply during the sharp contraction in stock prices a couple of years ago.

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 16:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113778)

Fed Repo Pool and the DOW revisited

M. Bolser is all a-twitter today (again) after the Fed increased the size of its repo pool in order, in his opinion, to provide "strong support for the DOW." The problem with Bolser's comments is that he fails to inform his readers that 1) currency in circulation (CIC) always shows a sharp temporary increase over the yearend holidays and 2) the Fed has to offset the reserve drain caused by that temporary increase by a temporary increase in its securities holdings. If the Fed failed to do that, Total Reserves would fall below Required Reserves and then there'd really be some howling. CIC increased by $12.6 bil. during the two weeks from 12-19-01 to 1-2-02 and by $11.2 bil. from 12-18-02 to 1-1-03 and during this present two-week period it will increase again.

Gandalf the White

(12/19/2003; 16:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113779)

WOWSERS --- Did you see TPTB rushing to bolster the deck ?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=iLOOK at the chart at the LINK abpve, and see the last TWO HOURS panic !
They have seen the writing on the WALL and have fear in their eyes !
The DOW must not sink, or the ship of STATE is SUNK !
BUT, As the Goldhearts know, there are far too many "holes" for them to plug.
GET the YELLOW, before it is too late.
Do you REMEMBER, what the KING Aragorn III said, about "Lightning in the Night" ?
Coming soon !
<;-)

R Powell

(12/19/2003; 16:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113780)

Sage

Your ending words.....

"and may all of you have a golden new year."

Welcome and thanks for the golden wish. How about a golden new year under the light of the silvery moon. Let's start, for now, with a ...
Happy Weekend !!
Rich

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 16:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113781)

To Federal_Reserves (12/19/03; 11:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 113766)

Thanks for the explanation.

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 16:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113782)

to Federal_Reserves (12/19/03; 11:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 113766)

How do these banks and mutual funds "...collude together
to move the price upward at their whim?" How do they do
this? How does this work? By what series of actions are
they able to achieve this?

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 17:05:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113783)

to Federal_Reserves (12/19/03; 11:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 113766)

This post of yours is highly illuminating. I do not doubt
that what you say is true and correct. I do not fully
undestand, however, how the funds and banks work together
to raise the price of stocks. It would be good for us if
we could have a clear, and specific, explanation of this.

Druid

(12/19/2003; 17:08:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113784)

Have Central Bankers Won the War Against Gold and Silver Bullion?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/contrarian2.html
Sol Palha, Chris Sanders, George Paulos, Gale Bullock, Bill Murphy
Ed Bugos, John Tyler, Peter Spina and Antal Fekete

Druid: An excellent set of Essays found at the URL above addressing the posted topic. This Euro action must be pretty serious for a "giant" like Larry Kudlow to be addressing it as he did a little earlier over at the Combustion of Neural Brain Cells channel. I only caught the last 15 or 20 seconds but from what I did hear and I'm paraphrasing, it sounded as if from Mr. Kudlow's perspective that the Euro is taking a lot of pressure off the dollar which is a good thing. If any other bugs caught the entire context, I'd appreciate the recite. TIA.

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 17:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113785)

See Tim Wood's stock market comments on Puplava's site

It's utterly amazing, Wood notes, that stocks continue to rise in defiance of historical technical and fundamental factors. IMO, however, there's one major change this time around and that's the fact that the Fed's cynical and prolonged zero-yielding-cash strategy is occurring in the context of a highly inflated money supply. Cash earns nothing and, one after another, frustrated and uninformed holders of cash throw in the towel and switch into a different kind of paper. But, hey, they've been assured by all kinds of people that "the government won't let the stock market collapse."

Federal_Reserves

(12/19/2003; 17:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113786)

Aging> Good to converse. Let me explain further

"With all due respect, I don't believe a sudden contraction of stock prices would cause a sudden contraction in the money supply, unless the former was accompanied by a large-scale repayment of bank loans. "

> I agree, a contraction in the money supply, comes before the stock price collapse. The stock price collapse serves to lock in the money supply collapse that preceeded it. MZM has dropped 8.4% in the last few months, an historically drastic reduction. In my mind, this is deflationary, and a huge alert to get out of stocks. If stocks suddenly collapse now the money stock drop becomes permanent because not enough can get out through the exits to raise cash back to the pre-collapse levels. The former cash held by investors has gone to money heaven. Then if we have deflation after the collapse, the large scale repayment of bank loans could engage as folks sell falling overvalued assets to get out of debt. The overvaluation of stocks is a key component in why the economy is underperforming. Growth expectations are set way too high. Executives are under constant pressure to downsize, restructure, and outsource, saddled as they are with unrealistic earnings growth expectations set by wall street, and they are selling inside in record numbers while the public buys. We have foolish policy makers in charge, who reacted improperly to the recession, who continue to run a high risk, untested method for recovering our economy. They simply do not believe that the business cycle is healthy, makes us wealthy, and wise. They should have let the dollar drop hard and let the recession of 2001 take its victims, dropping GDP growth to negative levels, allowing the strong to bury and buyout the weak, then and only then they should have applied the spending and tax cut stimulus, and the stimulus should have taken the form of tax cuts on the lower and middle class, including reduced SS co-payments for business, combined with capital spending programs from the government on valid programs such as the modernization of our infrastructure. We have fools as policy makers.

CoBra(too)

(12/19/2003; 17:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113787)

Twitters R'US ...

Thanks for your great stats.

I wouldn't even know, why I mystify you! Would you?

In any case, please go ahead and tell us all, what great idiots we are - id est subscribing to cabalistic idiocies - as all is so easily explained - by your FED, ESF and other stats.

... And yes, that may be true, and the rest may be just as true as your Tim Wood article mystifies me more.

Your MB slaughtering is degrading all your other efforts - and your aging fast is probably deserved!

Thank you, though, no thanks - anyway, good luck and merry X-Mas - if you're prepared ... cb2

R Powell

(12/19/2003; 18:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113788)

Perception + food for thought on a Friday night (here in USA)

The following is from ANOO (113761)...

"Third, the cumulative action of those who put their money into stocks is itself sufficient to determine price, without any other truth or reality having to be made to apply. No matter what the technical facts might be, if enough people believe a particular thing about a market, it need appear no different from the way it would appear if it were true. And I suspect that this is the correct explanation. We all know, or seem to know, that there is no good reason for stocks to be going up now, but if everyone else thinks they should, our belief makes no difference."

If I could change the word "technical" to fundamental, then I could agree 100%. And nicely stated too! However, I sense that ANOO used the word technical to mean basic or actual facts. Often I think that there are so many technical traders (using technical to mean chart readers) using the same indicators, that their predictions become somewhat self-fulfilling. Then, the perception that the system works reinforces its use. If ever there were a market that moves on perception rather than yearly supply and demand numbers, gold and silver would be the ones. Not that the end of hedging, the weakening dollar, world instability, etc. don't matter. They certainly do. But they're all contributers to how people perceive the bigger economic picture, no?

And reality? Don't we all see the world a little differently? Whose to decide what reality is? (The Queen of Hearts or The Cuckoo's Nest). I'd have to say the fact of the matter, concerning the stock indexes, is that they have been doing quite nicely this past year. Overvalued? Perhaps based on some standards (certainly most traditional ones!) but obviously more money is buying than is selling. Does this mean the economy is getting stronger? I personally don't believe so at all! Why more buying than selling? Again that perception and reality bugaboo. Is a rising stock market bearish for gold? I no longer believe so (not talking about the dollar here but equities!). Is a recovering economy supportive of higher commodities (tangibles) in general? I would guess yes. Can apparent economic contradictions exist at times? When don't they?

Oh what a tangled web economics is!
Thoughts?
Rich

Dollar Bill

(12/19/2003; 19:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113789)

*>*

Sir Rich, in keeping with your comment about differing views on reality....
Here Doug Nolan joins in with you.

"And it is fascinating to watch these dynamics in play and to sort through such divergent views. The discerning Bill Gross recognizes that the U.S. is leading the worldwide charge to reflate. He sees opportunities in commodities, tangible assets, foreign currencies, real estate, TIPS, and non-dollar bond and equities. Robert Prechter, focused on the recent contraction in the monetary aggregates and fixated on his own analytical framework, takes the opposite view: "Deflation � a drop in the money supply � is now a reality�" ISI's renowned Ed Hyman has a much different take: declining money supply "may reflect a portfolio shift into stocks, bonds, and real estate." He has a sanguine view on stable prices and continued economic expansion. Barton Biggs recently averred to a CNBC audience, "I think we're having a perfect recovery, and we've got a perfect economic environment." And then there's Art Laffer making Mr. Biggs appear a pessimist by comparison. He, this time, takes direct aim at the "latest negativism" propagated by those of us worried about our devaluing currency. His take is that the Fed is following masterful monetary policies, with the Fed's tight reins on the monetary base adeptly controlling the inflationary engines. According to Laffer, the dollar is declining because of improving economic and investment prospect around the globe.

These seasoned players are all examining the same environment through their individual analytical prisms and coming to extremely divergent conclusions. My sense is that incorporating a sound analytical framework has never been more important. From my own Credit Bubble Analytical Framework, I am compelled this evening to give strongest weight to the analysis of Mr. Gross (while completely dismissing the ruminations from Art Laffer). Mr. Gross resides in the Credit system's "Catbird seat" and fully appreciates the precarious nuances of contemporary finance and the risks of excessive debt at home and abroad. And he certainly hits the nail mostly on its head when he writes this month that "when too much debt infects the heart of capitalism you either default or inflate it away and the latter is by far the easiest (although not necessarily the wisest) policy." (Mr. Gross's parenthetical remarks)

Cometose

(12/19/2003; 19:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113790)

Agingfast 13778 REPOS

Usually this increased liquidity around the year end holiday season is accompanied by a rising bond market.....
during November and December....

I read this morning about some new Morning After pill which I origanally inferred was a hangover remedy ......I think that the hangover is coming soon ......again.....to a neighborhood near u(a)s

Flaccus

(12/19/2003; 19:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113791)

Agingfast

Do you own any gold? I want to know where you stand. Or are you strictly an apologist for the paper money crowd?

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 19:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113792)

Dollar Bill - A Real Laffer

There appear to be some sensitive people on this forum but perhaps it will be safe for me to criticize the quote attributed to Art Laffer in your latest post. Inflation is being controlled, Laffer is quoted as saying, by "the Fed's tight reins on the monetary base." Now the problem with that claim is that the monetary base is composed almost entirely of currency in circulation (CIC) and the level of CIC is determined by the public, and not by the Fed.

R Powell

(12/19/2003; 19:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113793)

Hello Dollar Bill

My inclination is, like yours, to find more probability in Bill Gross's views than in the rosy outlook of the Biggs, Kudlow and Laffer crowd. Apparently, with more money buying the stock markets than withdrawing or shorting, our opinion is not that of most (most $$ anyway).
Thanks for the response.
Rich

Max Rabbitz

(12/19/2003; 19:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113794)

Befuddled Traders

http://intelligencepress.com/Here are a few of today's headlines from the world of natural gas traders. This will affect the economic future.

Soaring Prices Puzzle Many; Northeast Hits $8-Plus......Thursday's explosion of prices in which gains ranged from about 30 cents to 90 cents (Algonquin citygate) left quite a few traders befuddled and groping for an explanation. Several were able to offer suggestions about potential contributing factors, but added that they didn't believe their suggestion alone rationalized the big gains. "Beats me" was the essence of most answers.

New York's Top Utility Regulator Calls for Gas Futures Investigation....... New York Public Service Commission Chairman William Flynn wants the New York Mercantile Exchange to investigate the reasons for soaring natural gas futuresprices in light of adequate gas storage levels and normal winter weather. Nymex suggests they need look no farther than the loss of the major gas marketers which has led to a decline in futures market liquidity.

Lehman Analyst Says '03 E&P Results Improved, But Not Great........Rising oil and natural gas prices have not translated into strong growth rates for exploration and production companies, and while 2003 results were an improvement over the previous year, overall results were good but not great, Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll said Friday.

Max.......Natural Gas reserves are getting harder to find, smaller when found, much deeper and more expensive. Without new exploration areas openned, the E&P's can't afford to just keep drilling the same old places. Natural gas use has increased whereas production has declined despite higher prices. Storage numbers are only part of the equation. Now with lots of snow on the ground reflecting the suns rays and cold weather in the forcast is it a surprise that prices rise? To some it is. What will the increased heating costs for natural gas and oil do to the consumer's pocketbook? Perhaps lower interest rates and more refi's are the answer.

R Powell

(12/19/2003; 19:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113795)

Flaccus

And if, indeed, Agingfast admits to owning no gold, what then? Should we tar and feather him?

If every soul on this planet held exactly the same views, this would be a lovely world indeed, no? Wouldn't matter what those views were, either. I once worked for a man who liked to say "My way or the highway." I've been self-employed for over 20 years now, ever since I choose the highway. Now I'd choose to hear more than one opinion.
happy weekend
rich

Dollar Bill

(12/19/2003; 19:57:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113796)

*>*

Not certain the exact date of this message, but it is a good friday night prespective:)

"If you had bought $1,000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1,000.00. With Worldcom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had bought $1,000.00 worth of beer, one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for the 10-cent deposit, you would have $214.00.

Based on the above, my current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

This is my new retirement program. I call it my 401-Keg program."

Agingfast

(12/19/2003; 19:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113797)

Flaccus

Perhaps it will make you feel more comfortable to know that I haven't owned a common, or preferred, stock since 1985 -- at which time I put all of my retirement funds into long-term US Treasuries, with double-digit yields. I am absolutely amazed that some members of this forum have reacted with such antagonism when I've merely tried to explain the mechanics of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. You may rest assured that I won't continue that practice.

a nation of one

(12/19/2003; 20:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113798)

to R Powell (12/19/03; 18:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 113788)

By "technical facts" I was meaning to refer to that body of knowledge which has to do with quantifiable matters (such as profits, capitalization, measurable growth, and so on), rather than with emotional or psychological ones (such as biased misinformation, partially true news, publicly encouraged fantasies of increased personal wealth, and the like). So I don't disagree with your interpretation.

Where reality is concerned, I believe that the widespread notion that everything can be perceived differently by different people is incorrect, even though there are at times elements of truth to this concept. When talking about whether there are fish in the lake, there is a truth that is not dependent on human perception. That is sort of the type of reality I was refering to. With regard to whether the fish in the lake are beautiful, or edible, this may be infinitely debated, no matter whether anyone thinks they are or not. With stocks, considerations such as the importance of whether a company has earnings and pays dividends seem to me more a matter of knowledge, maturity, and sanity, than, say, considerations such as whether a stock is recommended by your friend's preacher on the basis of whether your neighbor has some, which tend more to be matters of animal instinct or emotion, two aspects of human configuration which, though not irrelevant and not unreal, are nonetheless not the most reliable basis on which to buy stocks, even though there are plenty of people who would say that they are.

Ag Mountain

(12/19/2003; 20:05:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113799)

Flaccus, that's a good question

The way I see it, Agingfast has a view of the Federal Reserve System that's stuck in the 1960's. He even actually referred to one of the two versions of 'Purposes and Functions' that the Federal Reserve published in that bygone era! So obviously he's suffering from economic anachronism. From there, it's only natural that he wouldn't think he needs his own gold because he thinks the monetary system holds it in his behalf. Just ignore him.

Dollar Bill

(12/19/2003; 20:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113800)

*>*

Sir Rich, if Sir Agingfast does not own any gold, perhaps he should be congradulated? I own some gold, in a ring around my finger, and it has cost me a fortune !
And promises to keep costing me till, well, "death do you part" !
Some gold ownership is from an investment perspective, a financial disaster:)
Of course, there is the love.....
Sir Agingfast, please dont forget, there are lots of us that read you for the education. As an elder here, you are most welcome and dont forget the many different kinds of posts that have come your way. Only some were at odds with you. We forgive one another here. Hot posts tend to be from youth. So, dont alter your posting impulses !

Ag Mountain

(12/19/2003; 20:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113801)

And know we know the 'Agingfast investment mentality'

"I would gladly accept an IOU today that promises me two IOUs tomorrow."

Somebody should tell him that promises are a poor substitute for bread.

Ag Mountain

(12/19/2003; 20:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113802)

R Powell on hearing Agingfast: you know what they say about opinions?

"Everybody has one."

That doesn't mean you should necessarily want to wear his like a hat.

specie-man

(12/19/2003; 20:35:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113803)

Laffer quote

Here is my quote of the day:

"Inflation is being controlled by the Fed's tight reigns on the contents of the CPI and PPI reports."

R Powell

(12/19/2003; 20:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113804)

Agingfast

I perceived in your response (113797) to Flaccus a distinct hint that you are leaving. I hope otherwise.

Goldbugs are a very small minority in the economic world. I am one but my interests are not limited to gold. I frequent many places and consume huge volumes of economic news/numbers/reports and opinions. There is a never ceasing impression, often belittled in many corners of the economic world, that goldbugs are inflexable in their beliefs and intolerant of opposing views, even, to the point of not being willing to listen or discuss any views that do not "sing to the chorus". Unfortunately, as you have found out, there are such here among us. I, for one, apologize for what I consider to be their rude, narrowminded mindset. The only thing worse than one who does not think is one who chooses not to. Disagreement is wholesome but "if he owns no gold his words must be false" thinking is the height of folly. I'll probably also get flamed for these words. I no longer care. Thanks for your efforts.
Rich

Ten Bears

(12/19/2003; 20:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113805)

Daisy Chains, Round-tripping, and artificially high stock prices

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/1118.html"The Fed's job is to keep investors in paper, in particular the dollar. It must keep investors corralled so that only paper options are considered. What the Fed does not want to see happen is the price of gold and silver soar. When precious metals start flying, as they are doing now, it is telegraphing in advance that the confidence game is coming down to its end game."

"Various trade maneuvers have surfaced. A 'Daisy Chain Swap' is when companies form a temporary cartel with other traders to inflate prices. 'Round-Tripping' is when one energy trader sells electricity to another, and the second firm simultaneously sells it back to the first at the same price. This shows an artificial boost in business and makes the traders all seem more successful than they really are."

In the late 80's Texas real estate was "flipped" back and forth between buyers and sellers (in collusion), each time at a higher price, and on borrowed money, (margins) then finally unloaded on an unsuspecting member of the public at a very inflated price. A number of the S&l's who were in on the money lending side of this racket went under and were bailed out by taxpayers. The energy traders (Enron,etc.) used the same scam of collusion between buyer and seller to inflate prices and fleece California and other electric rate-payers for billions of $ (under the scam deregulation of energy companies planned by the Wall-Street boys and put in place by the bribe takers in congress). Now, it seems that some simply cannot believe that big players in the share markets, affiliated with the central banks, cannot simply transfer large blocks of stocks back and forth at ever increasing prices (even between different divisions of the same financial corporation) to rig prices up.

"The lessons of history tell us that once confidence is lost in paper, a central bank can no longer control the supply of money. As to where we are headed and when, keep your eyes on the money supply and velocity, the dollar, the bond markets and gold. The bond market is headed for trouble, and if that trouble becomes big enough the stock market will quickly follow. It is time to get out of all long-term bonds, hedge against dollar problems, and for safety, buy silver and gold."

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 21:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113806)

Continued posts

@ agingfast:

I want to echo Rich's suggestion that you keep posting. There are some here who disagree and some who aren't sure they understand (I being one of those), but ignorance is something we all abhor. However, even when we are "certain" someone is out on a limb, most of us are mature enough to disagree agreeably. Your observations and opinions are welcomed here by the great majority, including some who do not share your views - but with much less defamation of character. Let the rude ones stew in their own juices. If they get too obnoxious, ADMIN will spank their PP (posting privileges).

Goldilox

Goldilox

(12/19/2003; 21:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113807)

Mexico hikes 2004 minimum wage above inflation goal

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-n19343691&date=20031219&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

Friday December 19, 6:11 PM EST

MEXICO CITY, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Mexico's government is raising the minimum wage by 4.25 percent for 2004, a government official said on Friday, an increase above the official inflation target for next year.

The central bank has repeatedly cautioned that a rise in the minimum wage could fan price rises.

Mexico is targeting inflation at 3.0 percent plus or minus one percentage point for the near-term, hoping to bring it down to levels of the nation's key trading partner, the United States.

Annualized inflation is running around 4.0 percent. Most economists see inflation coming in around that level at the close of this month.

"That's the average that was decided. It's official," an official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. The new minimum wage will go into effect as of Jan. 1, 2004.

Goldilox: Does NAFTA allow US workers to cross the border for "higher wages"?

Druid

(12/19/2003; 22:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113808)

Ten Bears (12/19/03; 20:39:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 113805)

"The Fed's job is to keep investors in paper, in particular the dollar. It must keep investors corralled so that only paper options are considered. What the Fed does not want to see happen is the price of gold and silver soar. When precious metals start flying, as they are doing now, it is telegraphing in advance that the confidence game is coming down to its end game."

Druid: Ten Bears, great post. I would also add that what the Fed does not want to see is high oil/gas prices. The Fed is a political institution designed to hoodwink the masses and accommodate the politicians while taking their cut along the way. The entire scheme of inflation is to slowly pick the masses pockets over time by means of higher prices and do it in a way that is not easily recognizable. Herein lies the problem, we're now reaching a point in time where inflation is going to become EXTREMELY discernable by the average consumer (and even your run of the mill college grad.) and hell hath no fury like a politician being held accountable. Now the end game is, who gets blamed?

mikal

(12/19/2003; 22:03:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113809)

@Max Rabbitz

Good post.
Re: "What will the increased heating costs for gas and oil do to the consumer's pocketbook? Perhaps lower interest rates and more refi is the answer."
Yes, you're right.
More credit and debt issuance and GSE's too. More Freddie Macs and Fannie Mays. Target, State Farm Insurance, Sears, General Motors and others issuing credit cards and often home equity loans and mortgages, can issue more as rates begin to rise!
And what stands in the way of McDonalds and Victoria's Secret entering the profession anyway? People are gonna hafta eat and stay warm.
Dammit, times are tough and gettin tougher.
They'll just hafta say: "Do you want a refi with that?" or "One credit card or two?"
Then maybe: "Can I interest you in some health insurance?"

Black Blade

(12/19/2003; 22:08:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113810)

"Interesting" Day

I looks like end of year book squaring and "quadruple witching" did little to upset the precious metals today. Gold still hanging tough above the $400 level. I doubt that much will happen in the next 6 days but get "portfolio insurance" while you can. I have more to discuss on the subject but got in late.

I have been a bit busy with the end of year business with clients as well. Some are on the ball while others - Well lets just say that sometimes I feel like I have been continuously watching half-trained primates at the zoo for 12 hours attempting not too complicated tasks. ;-)

Anyway, we can easily expect to see a sharp depreciation of the US dollar of at least 30-50% or more. If the euro decides to intervene in the currency markets then the US will obviously do the same as they will have no choice. So far the Japanese and Chinese have told Snow and Bush to go "get bent" (as Bart Simpson would say). If the EU does the same even though they said that they won't intervene at least until the Euro reaches $1.35. Then you will see the US decide to do the same to weaken the dollar further, even though Snow and Bush have stated they support the "strong dollar policy" even after some humiliating groveling in Asia.

Anyway, more on this in a future DMR as 5:30 am comes just too early to go on for now. And a Happy Hanukah to our Jewish Friends tonight.

- Black Blade

Waverider

(12/19/2003; 23:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113811)

Japan says to raise forex intervention fund limit

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031219/economy_japan_forex_1.html"Japan said on Saturday it would raise the borrowing limit for its foreign exchange intervention account, giving itself more ammunition to hold down a buoyant yen which officials fear could stall an export-driven economic recovery. Finance Ministry officials confirmed a widely expected move to raise the self-imposed limit to 140 trillion yen ($1,301 billion) in the fiscal year starting next April from 79 trillion yen currently."

Waverider: Do I not sense a distinct flavor of panic in the air? Meanwhile, according to the budget plan submitted to the Cabinet today in Tokyo, Japan's public debt is expected to grow to 144 percent of GDP by March 2005...Ouch!

Waverider

(12/19/2003; 23:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113812)

Japan says to raise forex intervention fund limit

Waverider

(12/19/2003; 23:41:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113813)

Oopsie, oopsie!

Apologies!

Toolie

(12/20/2003; 00:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113814)

Regional Currencies

There is talk of Asian nations forming a common currency also, Gulf nations, African nations, Beloruse and Russia. The Nations that agree to use the gold dinar now include Malaysia, Iran and Pakistan. Many of these stated intentions have a target date of 2010 or earlier.

Presumably, the Euro was introduced to enhance savings within the EU by freeing member nations to hold reserves within a currency that is more linked to local interests. By cutting out the Dollar as a middleman in transactions between the banks of the EU, they do not have to dance to the tune of a depreciating US Dollar. Is this a fair assessment, friends?

Belgian has gone to great lengths to remind us that the Euro is backed by a 15% gold reserve. This reserve gives confidence to holders of the Euro assets that value will be deflated away at a slower rate than that of the Dollar. This system also allows Euro banks to inflate: the more they lend, the more the make. But Euro inflation is checked by the value of gold in the EU vaults. Holding a Euro is a better proposition than holding a dollar, as its value is less diminished by inflation. This is the Euro's appeal as a reserve currency.

The advantage of being the issuer of a reserve currency is that many people hold it, as it depreciates. Might the designers of the new regional currencies be willing to trade a little less ability to inflate, for a little wider use as a reserve? Might this evolve into a bidding war for the most stable currency? If these countries follow the Euro's lead, the next regional currency may be fixed by a 20% gold reserve, then 25%, and so on.

Perhaps the US central bankers see the writing on the wall. They see the days of a fiat reserve currency are numbered. So for the few years till 2010, they milk the fiat reserve status for all its worth. In the process China is brought into the industrial age, providing stability in a populous region.

Your thoughts are requested.

Below, find news on common currencies.

India/Pakistan/Asia
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/355330.cms
Snip: Urging South Asian nations to put aside mistrust and dispel unwarranted suspicions, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Friday said he envisaged mutual security cooperation, open borders and even a single currency in the region in the long run.

Gulf States
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=36207
Snip: The GCC, a loose political and economic alliance of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar, agreed in 2002 to set up a single currency by 2010 as part of plans for a common market.

Africa
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=48557
Snip: "The report submitted to the Summit by the relevant technical team indicated that the second monetary zone should be realised by 2005 to enable the creation of a single currency for all by 2007", he said. President Kufuor called for the formulation of a regional poverty reduction strategy next year in line with the ECOWAS Secretariat that had embarked upon the preliminary stages of elaborating a regional strategy and programmes that would complement the national poverty reduction strategy programmes being undertaken by most of the member states as the principal instrument for managing their national economies.

Russia/Belarus
http://www.prime-tass.com/news/6/opened/20031218/339637.asp
He also said that the planned introduction of the Russian ruble as the single currency of Russia and Belarus from 2005 is not likely to take effect as scheduled.
The Russian and Belarusian central banks have already agreed on the single currency "but it's also a political issue," Putin said.

heavy mettle

(12/20/2003; 03:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113815)

Golden Age - (OT)

http://www.sacredmysteries.com/JayTolkien1.htm
Seeing that there have been a few comments about Tolkien's Lord of the Rings recently, the link goes deeper into the message and the man behind the story telling. It seems a new age is dawning of the golden variety. Out with the old iron and in with the new metal. Sounds good to me.

snippet:

In contrast to the materially based teachings offered to us by today's schools and institutions of higher learning, the teachings of Alchemy ... present a deeply spiritual view of human history and evolution. ... this view is completely at variance with that of the modern scientific Darwinian perspective.1

Rather than perceive past and future from a purely linear point of view, the great adepts, and masters of these ancient spiritually based traditions, knew that the flow of time and human experience is not linear but cyclic. In other words, in the same way that we as human beings experience the ebb and flow of cycles such as the seasons of nature, the phases of the moon, birth, growth, maturation and death, humanity, as a whole, experiences the rise and fall of a larger cycle of existence known as the Maha Yuga.

This Maha Yuga or Great Cycle is composed of four ages known as the Satya Yuga, or Golden Age, the Treta Yuga or Silver Age, the Dvapara Yuga or Bronze Age and the Kali Yuga or Iron Age.

Yellow Metal

(12/20/2003; 03:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113816)

Burying the stuff

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/12/19/wgod19.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/12/19/ixportal.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=125887Hi all,
This one's a sign of the times.

"Mr Rowland, a three-term governor, has vowed to remain in office despite being caught lying this month when he insisted that he paid for work at his cottage, including the installation of a hot tub.

Several of his aides also face inquiries, including a deputy chief of staff who pleaded guilty to steering state contracts to firms in exchange for cash and . . . .gold, . . . . some of which he buried in his backyard."

Anybody have any contracts that need steering ?

Usul

(12/20/2003; 05:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113817)

heavy mettle, Golden Age

http://www.prabhupadavani.org/Bhagavatam/text/252.htmlWhy do we not have an "age of paper", since so much is based on paper promises?

Well, the Kali-yuga is the final stage, which lasts 400,000-427,000 years. How about that for long-term thinking? It makes the Kondratieff cycle look insignificant!

But the value of paper promises is a part of the Kali-yuga concept, as will be seen by reading this excerpt from a speech by Srila Prabhupada:

"... Of course I do not wish to say very harsh word, that unless I cheat you that way, how a man will accept one piece of paper as one thousand dollars? (laughter) You see? It is a grand cheating, that "I am giving one thousand dollars to you." But if I value, it is not even one farthing. This is called maya. It is not, but I accept. I accept. If people become enlightened, "No, we are not going to accept this piece of paper as one thousand dollars. We must have gold," so many things will be solved immediately. So many things. But because we agree to be cheated, the cheaters are cheating and things are going on wrong. This is called Kali-yuga..."

At the first A-bomb test, E.Robert Oppenheimer, who studied Sanskrit in his college days, famously recalled a line from Canto XI of the Bhagavad Gita (the sacred epic of Hindus) "If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst into the sky, that would be like the splendour of the Mighty One", and then as the mushroom cloud rose into the sky, another line: "I am become Death, the shatterer of worlds"

heavy mettle

(12/20/2003; 06:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113818)

Usul, Pradyumna

Thanks for the link. Will provide some weekend reading.

You asked: "Why do we not have an "age of paper", since so much is based on paper promises?"

Quite possibly because all the trees in the world would not last the corruption, greed and cheating. Then only one's word would count. With no oxygen, the word would matter not.

DryWasher

(12/20/2003; 08:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113819)

Gold Derivatives: Hitting the Iceberg

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary26.html#anchor25233
New commentary on Reg Howe's Golden Sextant today guys. This is a must read for all diehard gold bugs. Enjoy and merry Christmas all.
DryWasher.

Caradoc

(12/20/2003; 08:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113820)

Holiday terror attacks in US?

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/World/threat_newyork_031219.htmlLink above is to mass market version of the story, indicatingthat threats are not specific. Link at end of message below provides background including indication that the story is perhaps being downplayed. For example, the following snip...

***********************************************
...information about this type of event was "very specific" and appeared to be timed for "optimum damage." This source stated that such an attack or series of attacks have the potential not only to kill and injure many people, but to cause economic damage at the height of the shopping season. "Think about what would happen if a person loaded with explosives detonated themselves in the middle of Macy's, for example. The death toll, psychological and economic impact would be enormous. Now consider this taking place in a number of malls across America. What do you think would happen to this year's holiday sales?"
***********************************************

We don't need terror threats and such for gold to continue its rise, but it's better to be holding than not. Here's the link:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/NY.htm

Caradoc

Goldendome

(12/20/2003; 09:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113821)

Ratio closes some for the week

Gold/Silver Ratio

Week ending 12-12-03==== 73.291
"" "" 12-19-03==== 71.701 --Down 1.59 for the week.

Druid

(12/20/2003; 10:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113822)

DryWasher (12/20/03; 08:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 113819)

Thanks DryWasher, great read.

Agingfast

(12/20/2003; 10:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113823)

Dollar Bill - R Powell - Goldilox

Thanks for your kind words. The fallen nature of mankind and an "education" in the atheistic US school system frequently result in violently unpleasant behavior but since I can avoid some of that kind of behavior by not posting here, that's what I plan to do. Members of this forum should understand, however that I have not written one word against gold, or one word praising paper, or one word supporting the government's bizarre and misleading GDP, employment and inflation statistics.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/20/2003; 10:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113824)

An Invitation to Prospective Clients...

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Enter the market with grace and confidence. USAGOLD-CPM is your friend in the business.

a nation of one

(12/20/2003; 10:30:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113825)

well here it is

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/russell110503.html
"The Fed has greatly increased liquidity, and this has
resulted in asset inflation. This has meant rising stock
prices and rising home prices. Stocks and homes are now
priced at dangerously high levels." -Richard Russell

The best way to find something out is to act on what you
know. That will be wrong, and then God will point you in
the right direction.

a nation of one

(12/20/2003; 10:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113826)

no subject at all

Of course one element of terrorism is the dissemination of false possibilities of attack. That makes people nervous. But nothing happens. Then, when they are optimistic and at ease, boom! That makes them flinch, and it makes them remember. Terror is not violence. It is a state of mind. News reports that speculate on the possibility of attack lend support to the emotion of terror, of which terrorism primarily consists.

Dollar Bill

(12/20/2003; 10:49:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113827)

*>*

Sir Heavy Mettle,
You qouted someone;

"Rather than perceive past and future from a purely linear point of view, the great adepts, and masters of these ancient spiritually based traditions, knew that the flow of time and human experience is not linear but cyclic."

Actually, there are no masters or adepts. No one can defeat human nature, and make themselves without flaws. No one can escape thier limitations here and become god. Only in the imagination is time cyclic. And only those religions that dont think there is a god. It all just happened somehow, with no explanations.

Great for myth writers, and fun to imagine, but reality is something else.

Kali yuga concepts were thunk up by the same folks that brought us the law of karma. An idea of horrific consequences. 166 million untouchables live lives of unredeemable slavery. That is the proven results of false "spiritually based traditions".

heavy mettle

(12/20/2003; 12:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113828)

(No Subject)

Hello Dollar Bill,

You wrote: "Only in the imagination is time cyclic."

One could also reason that only in the imagination is time, time. Either way there are cycles that play themselves out over time, which if thoroughly understood and invested in can be rewarding.

As to the rest of my OT post on a golden era, caveat emptor. To stay within the guidelines of our gracious hosts, I really don't want to comment on religion, adepts and masters. Would rather discuss economic cycles and linear extrapolations.

Kind regards

Great Albino Bat

(12/20/2003; 12:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113829)

I appreciate your posts, Agingfast!

Hi Agingfast!

Don't leave us, by all means continue to attempt to educate us in the workings of the FED.

I read your posts with interest; I am not technically minded nor prepared technically, to evaluate your explanations of FED-workings. However, it seems to me that you do know what you are talking about.

Your explanations of FED-operations present a picture different from the one that pro-gold people are used to seeing and that they WANT TO SEE.

It does the cause of gold absolutely no good, to base expectations on false interpretations of economic conditions and erroneous appreciations of the operations of the FED.

The FED may be doing a great job - for all I know - and blameless in many aspects on which it is severely critized. However, I can take it all in quite calmly, for this I know, that paper ultimately goes to zero value, and the dollar is well on that path, FED excellence or no excellence.

Agingfast, please stay with us and enlighten us further. If there is anything I might ask, it would be to speak to us in VERY VERY SIMPLE TERMS, so you don't lose us in discussion of a complex subject. To talk of complex things in simple terms, is the mark of a great mind. Try it on us.

The GAB

koala bear

(12/20/2003; 12:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113830)

@ Agingfast

As a regular lurker I would like to express my thanks to 'Agingfast' for his valuable contribution to this forum. As a goldbug I am naturally suspicious of the Fed but I appreciate his efforts to share his knowledge with us here. If you take exception to his posts I suggest that you refute his arguments with sound words.

Great Albino Bat

(12/20/2003; 13:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113831)

Toolie: about "single currencies" and similar garbage....

Let's state the bald truth: gold and economic growth and development (stemming from government policies) are self-excluding.

As long as the people of the world are taught to expect a consistent and sustained improvement in living conditions AS A RESULT OF GOVERNMENT PLANNING AND POLICIES, gold is and will be out of the picture in any monetary connection.

This because: if people expect this from governments - and the whole world does expect this - then they MUST have chronic credit expansion and monetary inflation. Gold does not permit this; that's why gold was abandoned early in the 20th Century.

If gold ever does come back as a world money, it will be because people have utterly lost faith in governments. That is something that is not likely to take place anytime soon, unless we have an Apocalyse suddenly, something that could happen, but is not likely to happen.

All this talk of single currencies, even the talk of Mahathir of Malaysia, and the blather about the gold dinar, is 99.9% hot air, because...EVERYONE, including the Moslems, wants and hankers after Economic Development. We are all of us, materialized - a characteristic of the Kali Yuga, by the way.

True economic development is founded on savings. This is anathema today. The Economic Development we get is false, based on credit, credit, and more credit. Which means inflation. And a "return to gold" would mean the collapse of all the great Tower of Babel of false economic development. No government today is willing to face that calamity in order to achieve a better world after it.

And so we see that the Europeans are worried about the strengthening of their Euro, against the dollar. And well they should be. They are into false economic development, false economic structures of production, excessive capacities, along with the rest of the world, including China and Japan, and if they can't sell Mercedes and BMWs etc. etc. to the US because of an expensive Euro, then they are in deep doo-doo, GOLD RESERVES OR NO GOLD RESERVES.

Buy gold for personal protection - the trade of the decade, says William Bonner, and he is right - sit back, relax and enjoy the collapse of civilization. There is nothing we can do about it, might as well enjoy it, sitting on a pile of gold.

Golden guano from the GAB

Goldilox

(12/20/2003; 14:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113832)

Tim Wood's Weekly Analysis

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmsnippit:

"Back in June I reported that the percentage of Bulls to Bears reported by Investor Intelligence were at the highest levels since 1987. Peter Eliades has done extensive work with sentiment and on December 17, 2003 he reports, "We spent some time looking through this year's Investors Intelligence data in a spreadsheet that has the weekly data going back to 1969 (prior to that time data was released every two weeks rather than weekly). We noticed that the weekly reading of bulls divided by bulls plus Bears has been over 70 percent for 31 consecutive weeks and we were curious if that ever happened before over the past 3 + decades. The answer is no.

Think about that! We just recently finished the decade of the 1990s which were remarkably free of anything resembling a bear market. The stock market actually advanced from 1982 to the year 2000 without seeing one year where the low of the year surpassed the low the previous year and yet, through that whole period of time, sentiment never reached the pervasive levels of bullishness that we now see after a rally which has failed to take either the Dow or the S&P anywhere near their all-time highs and which, when viewed in light of the Nasdaq Composite, has brought that index back only slightly towards its all-time highs as current prices remain over 60% below the highs of the year 2000."� My findings on sentiment are exactly the same as Peter's. As I said earlier I look at the ratio of Bulls to Bears and this ratio now sits at 3.15 Bulls for every 1 Bear. This ratio has been hovering at or above the 2.45:1 level now for 29 weeks. This is also an all time record. We have never seen a period where this ratio has been at this level for this long before. Yet, prices move higher. "

Goldilox:

Tim maintains that the market imbalance must demonstrate one of two conditions:

1) The historical study of market cycles is no longer relevant
2) We are over-ripe for Phase II of the Big Bear (the conditions and market movements are eerily similar when compared to 1929-1932)

His opinion is that condition #2 is more likely.

A study of contrarian psychology suggests the outsider majority is always wrong (be they bear or bull) so the insider minority can beat them - an axiom of the game. After all, Las Vegas wasn't built by house "losses". Successful Ponzi schemes (a model the stock market fits perfectly) require that the mob gets wind of the "action" as growth peaks, and are thus fleeced during the downhill slide. If 2003 really mirrors 1930, we're in for a fall that will take the stock market much lower than 2000's lows.

An old quote goes: "Most people lost money in 1929; the smart people lost again in 1930, and the REALLY smart ones lost once more in 1932. If you're still in the stock market, which are you?"

Wanna have something left this time? Get gold, silver, etc...

Agingfast

(12/20/2003; 14:14:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113833)

koala bear & Great Albino Bat

Thanks. I've enjoyed 18 years of retirement, and fellow retirees, knowing I've come from an investment management background, are generally shocked by my negative opinions of the hucksters of Wall Street, the politicians of Washington (both parties), and the monetary policymakers (a group I criticized consistently, and with a certain amount of glee, in numerous published reports during my working years). There are some actions, usually involving major policy decisions (such as the Fed's cynical and prolonged imposition of a ridiculously low fed funds rate), for which the Fed should be criticized but there are other actions, usually involving the Fed's daily open market operations, where, IMO, the criticism is wrong and is based mainly on paranoid and conspiratorial suspicions and a lack of understanding of the mechanics of the Fed balance sheet (released every Thursday).

Mike Bolser is entitled to hold and publish his opinions about an assumed manipulative relationship between the Fed's repo holdings and the level of the DJIA - but in fairness to his readers (and even to the Fed) he should explain (if he can) that there are also other factors that cause the level of repos to rise, including the reserve drain caused by the public's demand for more currency during major holidays (in process right now) and temporary financing arrangements extended to the dealers during periods of heavy Treasury debt issuance.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/20/2003; 15:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113834)

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CoBra(too)

(12/20/2003; 16:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113835)

@ Agingfast and R. Powell - "I Believe in Angels"!

Somehow, it's Christmas time and I truly believe in Angels.
I just can't seem to find them in the FED, the Admin, or any elses admin, or even the extremely generous IMF!

Maybe, you gentlemen, can help me to to see the blessings of heavenly goodwill in todays financial bubbles, managed and prolonged by mere worldly institutions?

AS I took Rich's comments directed at me. As Aging's are for sure and yes I am a gold bug, though normally not a very aggressive one. I'm probably more a believer of the very long term view and still are.

My taking issue is more based on the blasting of MB and others, who are of the opinion that now all financial markets are manipulated by the FED, the ESF and similar institutions elsewhere. If you've been following Reg Howe, Jim Puplava, James Turk, and now even Richard Russel, John Templeton and some fellows of the Mises org. I'm getting a bit a frustrated with people, who argue only one side, id est, the repo pool. Just another tool to reach their ultimate goal - which may be to just prolong the dollar standard by statistical hedonics, based on debt.

If it is not clear by now, what has happened back at the "almost" crash of Oct. 1987, when AG just took over, namely providing any credit to Wall Street to stave off an unprecedented calamity! Or all the crashes since, SE Asia, Mexico, Russia and LTCM, then I feel you may have missed some important points. One being that the ESF has been founded expressively to intervene in exchange markets, as the name suggests. It is too hard to imagine that any financial asset can be managed - at least for a while - when the need to do it becomes close to Armaggedon!

And this is where we may be. At Puplava's perfect storm. It will and already has become unmanageable. The bubbles created by the FED, debt, housing, financial assets and and current account as politic's budget deficits, together with hedonic accounting of pension and medicare plans, are just too big to be ever salvaged. At least not without a systemic breakdown of the fake dollar standard the world has been "striving" on, for too long.

Unfortunately, not only to the detriment of its enforcers, though also to the detriment of the rest of the globe, who have been supplying 80% of their combined savings to feed the monster for too many years - as it was also unproductive for the US. At best it created false dawns in other regions - and the jury on these may still be out there!

Merry X-Mas - cb2

PS: ... and of course, gold never, ever was mitigated, suppressed and badmouthed by the FED and its vasalls ...

PPS: This issue is getting a bit stale - and thank you, I've had it in time for another sabbatical.

Agingfast

(12/20/2003; 17:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113836)

CoBra(too)

The problem, my dear CB2, is that some of the bears (I'm a perma-equity-bear) who thought the decline in the stock market that started in 2000 would continue without interruption until reaching traditional bear market valuation metrics (despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus) cannot believe that stocks could have recovered without constant, daily government intervention -- despite the fact that after the 1929 crash the stock market also rallied sharply. Since the market expectations of those folks were thwarted (even if only temporarily) that obviously (in their minds) could not have resulted from their own flawed forecasting capabilities; ergo, the equity market recovery this year must be a government plot. As for MB's repo pool ideas, he should continue on his merry way -- but, in the interest of full disclosure, he should admit that the dollar amount of repos is also affected by other factors.

Agingfast

(12/20/2003; 18:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113837)

CoBra(too)

Further, my dear CB2, if the government is so capable (government capable?) of making the stock market perform as it desires, why was the government unable to prevent the sharp decline in stock prices that began in 2000? Didn't you assure us that since 1987 the government has been prepared to terminate such declines promptly? (It appears that the claimed manipulative use of the Fed's repo pool is effective only during rising markets.)

mikal

(12/20/2003; 18:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113838)

President's Working Group on Financial Markets

Seems that the last time I did a search on this topic, I had to reschedule the inquiry because it wasn't an investigation I was after but an overview. I agree with Cobra2- the topic's been treated here almost to extreme, but AgingFast has many valid points regarding Bolser and the Fed.
No doubt that what we call the PPT- Plunge Protection Team -has gotten some mainstream chatter, mostly cursory or incidental mentions.
But I appreciate the various ESF, PPT and President's Working Group info found here and at linked articles over the years. It's more than enough to make a lasting impression.
Cobra's right that the point is practically moot now. Now that TSHT is so near. This equity bubble scandal by our government in collusion with large money center banks, hedge funds and brokers is not unlike the scandals in the commodity arena, the mutual funds, GSE's like Freddie Mac and Fannie May, accounting oversights, derivatives, and those Cobra, AgingFast and others pointed out today.
Any one of these factors could be expected at the end of a major cycle, to have catastrophic results. The combination then hints of the impending "Perfect Storm".

Dollar Bill

(12/20/2003; 18:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113839)

*>*

Sir Agingfast, while repo pools might not be the method used, manipulation is present.
The comment you made; "why was the government unable to prevent the sharp decline in stock prices that began in 2000?" I would say that they intended the decline. Otherwise greenspan would not have raised rates as he did.
The markets were waiting, in the first days of the decline in 2000, for the fed to support the market with rate cuts.
When greenspan did the opposite, the bear took full hold.
In my conspiritorial mind, the rate hikes came after the euro zone had bought fully into the US market. Also, euro banks and companies had been convinced of the new economy enough to tie themselves into the reinsurance market in a big way. If you are the US fed, playing chess against a budding euro, your aim is to have the euro region take heavy blows. And they did. Euro countries took the biggest financial hit by percentage, than any other group in the equity bear market.
The reinsurance market, clobbered after 2000, hit the euro region hard.
Those that see the hand of manipulation moving heavily in financial areas may not see the exact mechanisms, and I am a student of that area as are most here. We are interested to know the structures that operate....some are hidden from us. When someone points a finger at the repo markets, and gives thier reasons, students here want to be convinced otherwise, If the repo market analysis is wrong, well we want to know. I think you have helped.
I am on the side of those that see manipulation and chess playing everywhere.
The 2000 turn from bull to bear was noted here on a daily basis during that time in great detail. Links were provided, and while the bull up to 2000 could be classified just one huge short squeeze, the downdraft of the bear was a short landslide. Big money rode it up and down.
There is info we dont have here, we are on the search for it. This forum, and all its posters, hot running or not, are
actually serious students. I would disparage non of them myself. Even if they have something to learn about editing thier posts better. Myself included ! as you can see by this post.

mikal

(12/20/2003; 18:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113840)

Goldilox

Glad to see the comparisons by yourself and Tim Wood on 1929, 1930, 1932.
Reminders of that time come with fewer and shorter intermissions in this so-called "recovery" phase.
My grandfather lost his life savings in a bank closure. Most pensions and medicare and social security were not around then.
Investment in equities and real estate is a partial substitute for savings here and in Europe. Neither plan is truly well insured.

Dollar Bill

(12/20/2003; 19:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113841)

*>*

Also, noted here in a link to BIS info, during late 2002 and early 2003, the euro zone cb's changed thier investments in the US. Not the total amount, but where it was located. A very big move out of US equities by euro cb's to investing in fannie mae.
Coincidence? that the equity market rise came swiftly after the euro move? Clearly the dollar rise took the euro by surprise. Otherwise it would not have been news lately to find out that most companies in the euro region did not play off the euro rise, did not hedge the dollar rise. Maybe they are now...

Ag Mountain

(12/20/2003; 19:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113842)

Will the Agingfast hypocrisy never end?

When someone like Agingfast says something halfway intelligent like, "if the government is so capable ... why was the government unable to prevent the sharp decline in stock prices that began in 2000?" why can't they go further, IN THE INTEREST OF FULL DISCLOSURE, ( does that refrain sound familiar???) and admit that they really have no basis to judge the amount of manipulation that may have factored into the outcome? Like, he has no way of knowing how much LOWER the markets may have actually slid if it were all left as an UNMITIGATED event.

If I were running the show, I'd have intervened only just enough to keep society from getting totally knocked off its feet, and why should the government be any different? So by that score, the government's effort and success was Hreculean.

Unless your holding back another body of premises, it's narrow-minded to base your conclusion of non-intervention on the bland evidence that a market downturn of some impressive scale has been observed. Why don't you give us the same full disclosure that you demand of everyone else?

Dollar Bill

(12/20/2003; 19:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113843)

*>*

Also, lately here it was reported that euro financial top guys said they see no problem till the dollar euro rate gets to...what? 136? Was that the number? I think it was.
So, if euro companies plan on that,hedge with that in mind, if that becomes the magic number, I bet that the dollar and its quite allies in the investment community, (includeing jewish men with an ww2 euro grude still red hot) turn before that hits and ride the dollar higher just to play the euro region one more hit.
confessions of a conspiracy nut I suppose.

Goldilox

(12/20/2003; 20:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113844)

New Insights

It appears that AgingFast has joined our little party just in time. As others have pointed out, we, like any other like-minded group, are prone to oversimplify our viewpoint and point accusative fingers at everyone who is acting outside our finite snapshot of "political correctness". Maybe we needed a reminder that most people believe their actions are "right" and "correct", based on the conclusions they have processed from their own particular input. There is nothing more likely to keep a man in perpetual darkness than "contempt prior to investigation".

Bottom line, democracy and debate were invented as platforms for sharing ideas and resolving issues after examining many opposing viewpoints , accepting that no single man or philosophy has all the answers. Growth and understanding come from examination of as many individual perceptions as possible, as we each have a unique experience of life and its priorities.

Thanks for sticking around, AgingFast. Maybe we can all be a little more grateful to be alive at this critical juncture of civilization and better respect our differences AND similarities here at the forum. Happy holidays to all the fine Knights and Ladies around the table and the great CPM staff who contribute and maintain it.

Goldilox

Agingfast

(12/20/2003; 20:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113845)

Dollar Bill

I wouldn't want to trace every wiggle on the charts but it appears that in general the price of gold and the fed funds rate peak together and trough together. If so, the price of gold should continue to rise until the fed funds rate again reaches a peak.

Toolie

(12/20/2003; 22:46:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113846)

@Great Albino Bat (12/20/03; 13:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 113831)

We agree on the fate of fiat. Is it such a stretch to think the PTB are as wise as we are? Have none thought of what comes after? Who will trust any currency without backing of some kind?

Notice the state of affairs. The Federal govt. spends money as though they are coupons near the expiration date. There is no genuine desire to stop the trend of outsourcing, only posturing for the coming elections. It is a though the dollar is being purposely undermined. In fact they refer to outsourcing as productivity increases. Is there a better way to end the welfare than open the borders? Likewise, how better to dismantle oppressive regulation than free trade? It puts the invisible hand to work while many wonder what just happened.

Is it known that when the Gulf States unite, that they will accept/demand payment in something other than the dollar? The news of Saudi Arabia seeking the bomb would support the idea that they no longer want our protection. Does the evacuation of US troops support this as well? Why not use the dollars� current reserve status up, by building trade dependence in key regions.

In time the dollar will have to be backed by something. The timetable is the only unknown.

It wouldn't be that bad a legacy for a fiat currency if it could claim rebuilding Europe after WWII, offering Asia a second chance and removing colonialization from much of the world. Then return us the gold that waits in Fort Knox. I'll keep your golden guano in one hand, and my hopes in the other. We will see which one fills up first.

Thanks for your thoughtful response.

Merry Christmas all.

I'm off to enjoy a couple of conspiracy nuts by the fire.

misetich

(12/21/2003; 04:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113847)

Bill Gross's Investment Outlook- Imagine

http://www.pimcofunds.com/commentary/mgr_billGross12012003.jspSnip:

Now let's turn to money and to how to either make more of it, or at least keep what we have; an "I" thing perhaps, but by extension of this Outlook to clients and its readership, a "we" thing as well. My gift to you, I suppose�for what it's worth. My outlined notes read as follows:

Invest in reflatables.
Invest in securities that borrow at 1% instead of lend at it.

That's about as succinct as I can get in summing up what I think lies ahead over the next 12 months and beyond. Faced with the apparent necessity to maintain U.S. citizen's standard of living in the face of a declining currency and the loss of millions of jobs to Asian/Indian competition, our government is leading the worldwide charge to reflate. Negative short-term rates, $500 billion deficits, sharply lower tax rates, costly new prescription drug benefits, and even a Kennedyesque pledge to beat the Chinese to the moon for whatever that means, are all geared to get our economy moving again. "Damn inflation, full speed ahead," Greenspan has said both in action and in word. I think an investor should believe him and invest accordingly. Not that inflation's spectre will immediately haunt us. There's too much spare capacity and unemployment to produce much beyond the standard 2-3% forecast in the next year or so. But markets anticipate, often incorrectly, yet still they anticipate. Eight hundred dollar gold in 1981 and Nasdaq 5,000 three years ago are graphic examples of investors extending trends into the hereafter. This current reflationary reversal, however, remains in its infancy�in fact there are justifiable reasons to doubt its longevity�globalization, productivity, and such. If it climbs in future years, it will climb that wall of worry that stocks are often accustomed to. But, 1% short rates, a 10%+ annual decline in the dollar, hundreds of billions of guns and butter, and Hummer and Humvee deficits are powerful medicine. Investors need only IMAGINE the inflationary impact of such events a few years hence to place the majority of their chips on the inflationary as opposed to the deflationary side of the table.
.......................
When too much debt infects the heart of capitalism you either default or inflate it away and the latter is by far the easiest (although not necessarily the wisest) policy. Foreign governments and central banks may be willing buyers of bonds in order to support their own economies and the Fed may be a monopolistic mispricer of credit at negative short-term yields, but that is no reason for the knowledgeable investor to play the same game. Investing in "reflatables" and borrowing with conservatism at the short rate are the two best ways to prosper in such an environment.
******************
Misetich

Gross sums it up pretty well - Too much debt - default or inflate

The "trick" is to inflate out and CHEATING pensioners on the REAL cost of living increases, through the manipulation of CPI

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/21/2003; 05:26:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113848)

BUNDESBANK WARNS ON DOLLAR CRASH AND DEBT CRISIS

http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=41524Snip:

Source: Bundesbank Monthly Report, Dec. 2003]

In its latest monthly report,
the German Bundesbank devotes a special chapter
to the "stability of the German financial system".

Here,
the Bundesbank notes that "external geopolitical shocks
and strong gyrations on global financial markets"
are right now among the biggest risks for the financial system.

"The extraordinary current account imbalances,
in particular in the US" could lead to
"abrupt movements on foreign exchange markets."

This risk
could even be increased by "plenty of worldwide liquidity", which could
"promote the emergence of financial asset price exuberance
and an infection of mis-valuations from one market to the other."

The situation would further worsen once price inflatio
and interest rates start to go up.

"In particular in those economies,
which show signs of an over-heated real estate market on top of
high levels of private indebtedness, a rise of interest rates
could have grave negative consequences."

Again, the Bundesbank
points to the US economy, where the "indebtedness of private
households has increased sharply in recent years and in 2002
reached 110% of disposable incomes, an all-time high", while the
savings rate has been very low.

All of this increases the
"financial vulnerability of private households" in the US.

Should the real economies be hit by one of the mentioned
scenarios, the credit quality of corporations would also be
damaged, thereby causing severe problems for the corporate bond markets.
**************
Misetich

It wasn't too long (a few year ago) that the Bundersbank issued several warnings on the then irrational US stock market valuation -

..and their call was right on the money

A few years later..the US economy and investors are still reeling from that effect

...Bundersbank recent "alarm" is not without foundation..

Mr. Dollar Bill keeps telling us that the US is doing this intentionally and hitting the EU will a collapsing $...he also admits as being a conspiracy theory of his... and who knows he might be right..yet - the "spin" seems out of touch with reality

EU has taken preparatory steps in the eventuality of a US $ rout - (probability of occuring - 50%) since the "enemies" are multiplying against arrogant US foreign policy

As Pimco's Gross in his lates missive warned all - Can you imagine?

Mr. Agingfast seems to believe US stock markets are not manipulated - (on a side note Mr. Agingfast - at least the US "sister" country - Japan - has admitted that puclicly) and he takes exception to Mr. Bolser analysis and theories of Fed manipulations and interventions)

...Mr. Aginfast ..perhaps you're right on Mr. Bolser - yet one must concede Mr. Bolser has been making the right calls on the Dow index and recent movements..

...maybe he's lucky..maybe he's right - Mr. Agingfast I also join the Great Bat and Goldilox in encouraging you to continue posting and pass on your experiences

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/21/2003; 06:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113849)

Doug Noland

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnip:

December 17 � Bloomberg: "The U.S. government will probably run a budget deficit next year of around 4-4.5 percent of gross domestic product, a top White House economic adviser said� Mankiw's prediction for the year that ends Sept. 30 means that the federal government would run a higher deficit in percentage terms than they did this current year. The fiscal 2003 deficit, reflecting increased government spending, tax cuts and slower economic growth, grew to a record $374.2 billion -- about 3.5 percent of GDP."
.......................
Foreign Net Purchases of U.S. Securities jumped from September's dismal $4.19 billion to a more respectable, although insufficient, $27.65 billion. Foreign Official Institutions purchased $19.5 billion of Treasuries (the Bank of Japan accounted for more than $17 billion), up from September's $8.0 billion. The bottom line is that the $15.9 billion September and October average foreign Net Purchases compares to the $62.6 billion monthly average over the preceding 12 months. And digging into a bit of detail, we see that the (financial center) UK accounted for $13.5 billion of total Net Purchases. With net Treasury purchases of $21.5 billion, total Japanese Net Purchases surpassed $18 billion. Following September's net liquidations of $2.3 billion, Chinese Net Purchases of U.S. Securities almost reached $5 billion. Curiously, Total Caribbean saw $2.9 billion of net liquidations following September's $10.7 billion net sales. Total Caribbean had averaged $14.4 billion of Net Purchases over the preceding six months. At $199 billion, Total Caribbean accounted for 65% of total agency transactions for the month.
................
Today, the Powerful Speculator Community has good reason to believe it has three important things working in its favor. 1) The Fed will act in their (the speculator's) best interest, keeping short-rates low for as long as possible, while moving quickly to lower rates in the event of future systemic risk. 2) The Enormous and Powerful GSEs will continue to act as quasi-central banks, aggressively buying unlimited quantities of securities in the event of any systemic liquidity/interest rate stress. The implied Fed and GSE liquidity guarantees have never appeared as credible. 3) The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Fed, Asian central banks generally, and perhaps global central bankers en masse, are today committed to sustaining the global speculative Bubble in Credit instruments. These powerful, unprecedented, layers of market support have evolved over time; they are revered by the fortunate speculators; and they are an important fact of life for economies and markets all over the world. The Great Credit Bubble is clearly now a global phenomenon.
*************

Misetich

Thanks to Doug for his continued brilliant analysis - The last line of defence - Central Banks - has been reached - These egoistical maniacs believe they can "control" and manipulate ad infinitum -

Markets were not built on thatn principle

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/21/2003; 06:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113850)

U.S. Policy Over Iraq Gets a Thrashing

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/12/19/004.htmlSnip:

President Vladimir Putin was at pains Thursday to describe the United States as a key partner in the fight on international terrorism -- before blasting U.S. policy on Iraq.

Unlike U.S. President George W. Bush, who links Iraq whenever possible to the campaign on terror, Putin sharply separated the two in the call-in show, calling them "separate problems and separate conversations."

"There were no international terrorists under Saddam Hussein," he said, repeating Russia's position that the invasion of Iraq was a violation of international law.

"Anything done without the UN Security Council's blessing cannot be recognized as fair or justified," he said.

Responding to a question posed by a sergeant at Russia's Kant air base in Kyrgyzstan, on whether Iraq would become America's "second Vietnam," Putin urged the United States not to act unilaterally, cautioning that historically, great powers and empires had often been doomed by "feelings of invincibility, grandeur and infallibility."

"I hope -- I very much hope -- that this does not happen with our American partners," Putin said. The remarks came hours before Putin was to meet with U.S. special envoy James Baker to discuss Iraqi debt. (See story, Page 5.)
**************
Misetich

On the geopolitical fron US is still meeting fierce resistance to its alleged illegal invasion of Iraq. Russia stands to lose huge in Iraq IF the US ultimately succeeds in their quest to what some analsyts have referred to the 51st state in the union - Iraqfornia

The chessboard moves continue - China and Japan are wagin "economic" war in the far east for regional dominance with Japan not fairing too well lately as China's torrid growth has left them biting the dust

...Interesting to note that a Chinese high ranking official was quoted as saying that they were willing to part 'with the economic growth' and wage a war for Taiwan

...Would the dumping of US treasuries follow up by the Chinese or will the US concede Taiwan?

A fierce campaign between the US and Russia is taking place in Eurasia - re: military posts - with Russia becoming more aggressive

Russia has the Euro card and its natural for them to eventually join EU

In the meantime the US has made "progress" in selling Free trade to the "power houses" countries in Central America

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 07:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113851)

misetich - re: market manipulations

I noted last night that in general it appears that the price of gold and the federal funds rate peak together and trough together. After the very high peak in the POG and in the funds rate more than two decades ago, both began sustained declines, reflecting, IMO, the growing belief that inflation was a diminishing problem. Your efforts to board the Gold Bull Express from 1980 to 2000 would have been frustrating and costly. Those years, overall, were a paper pusher's paradise. Today, however, the tables are turned. Rather than fighting inflation with an extremely high funds rate, the Fed appears to be fighting deflation with an extremely low funds rate -- and the inflationary implications of those efforts are, IMO, the primary reason for the rising POG and POS.

If that's correct, then the overall price trends of gold and silver were, and are, far too powerful to be meaningfully affected by attempted market manipulations -- by the government or by private sector interests.

My comments on market manipulations have been limited to the rejection of the idea that the Fed repo pool is being used to prop up the DJIA. It's easy to claim such a correlation in 2003, when stock prices have been rising, but I doubt if there was any such correlation in 2000-2002, when stock prices were falling -- unless, of course, you believe that the Fed and the incoming Bush administration were eager to have a stock market crash.

Those who believe that manipulations are the major movers of prices of financial assets and PMs should clarify, for themselves and for skeptics, how much of those efforts are undertaken by a wide variety of private sector interests, such as industrial, mining and financial corporations, who are trying to make a buck and how much is actually being done by the Fed (other than through its ability to change the funds rate and to jawbone) or by branches of the federal government.

misetich

(12/21/2003; 08:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113852)

Agingfast (12/21/03; 07:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113851)

Your comments

After the very high peak in the POG and in the funds rate more than two decades ago, both began sustained declines, reflecting, IMO, the growing belief that inflation was a diminishing problem

Misetich

The growing belief that inflation was a diminish problem (thus lower POG) was/is a direct result of mass psychology manipulation by the Feds and manipulative means to foster/implant those concepts

In reality infaltion, defined by money supply or price inflation has skyrocketed during the last 20 years. I agree with you comments that speculators have jumped on the bandwagon and reinforced the trend, much as they've been doing lately - in other words don't fight the Fed but join them

Contrarians to that theory have paid a dear price. However the paper bull witnessed in the last 20 + years has come to an end. The present bear rally in the stock market ( James Turk recentlty published a study wherein he measured the value of Dow index in Gold and astonishing the Dow index has fallen in the last few years expressed in that ratio)

Whether the Feds use the repo pool as Mike Bolser has suggested or other models or combination thereof their motivation for a higher stock market has been made clear as well as a strong US $ thus credence that PPT is intervening is a given fact

Richard Russell who has had a terrific record in both during the recent paper bull market and calling the the bear market and gold bull says and I quoted

"Also, rising gold and gold shares are an affront and a danger-flag waving in the face of the world's central banks and their paper money. So is it any wonder that gold is probably the most emotion-packed item in the world today.

Therefore, gold is under periodic attack from the central banks. The banks' job, remember, is to keep the world's population believing that paper money is real money while gold is a "relic of the past."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell122203.html

Mr Russell also puts gold investments in perspective

quote" gold is probably the world's most "emotional" investment. It's an emotional item, since rising gold is the market's way of saying, "Your dollars are worth less and less in terms of real intrinsic money."
End of quote

Misetich

Mr. Agingfast I wish that Mr. Bolser would rejoin our group and comment

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

mikal

(12/21/2003; 09:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113853)

@misetich

Good posts as always.
Thanks for getting such good information out in such quantity. You're a VIP and an MVP in my eyes.

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 11:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113854)

misetich

Certainly gold has to be discredited to try to make fiat look good, that's part of CB jawboning routine. Likewise, CB sales of gold are jawboned as an attempt to diversify their reserves. But actions such as those are out in the open. They are not secret, hidden manipulations of the POG. Further, now that fed funds have essentially troughed, thereby re-igniting inflation expectations in the minds of many investors, those gold-price-capping efforts are no longer effective.

You should be thrilled by the possibility that the price of gold will continue to rise until the fed funds rate reaches another peak, which could be years from now.

What I'd like to see cataloged, along with appropriate proof, are the conspiracy theorists' secret, hidden manipulations of asset prices that are caused by the Fed or the US government, not by interested parties in the private sector.

R Powell

(12/21/2003; 11:31:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113855)

CoBra(too).....an explanation of my views FWIW

In regards to yesterday's post (113835)...

Thanks you for again communicating. I hold your insights in the highest regard. I also tend to agree with Puplava's presentation of our current economic situation and the dangers it holds. It is a wonderful compilation of many of the facets of the total picture. Is this not why we buy gold?

Nothing that I've read from Agingfast has led me to think that he disagrees. Repeat: I saw nothing in his words that presents an agrument contrary to our evaluation of the situation. You and he are much more qualified than am I in such complicated matters but I saw only that Agingfast was explaining his understanding of how the repo market functions, the mechanisation of it, if you will. Perhaps I overlooked something? I gathered that Agingfast is of the opinion that the repo market is more controled by the public demand for currency than it is a controling mechanism for the Fed. It may well be both, no?

The opinion I wanted to express is simply that perhaps economics is too complicated to ever be fully and completely understood at any point in time. Ergo, we would be prudent to listen to other opinions which may seem (or be) in disagreement with our already formulated conclusions. The ironic part is that I believe your opinions and those of Agingfast are probably much more congruent than diverse. Certainly your combined experience in the financial world is formidable.

As a trader I've learned that information supportive to financial positions already initiated is much more readily accepted and embraced than is that which is at odds with the rational for holding those positions. Our beliefs are also at such risk. This can be a costly mistake. Whether for the sake of acquiring knowledge or monetary gain, information or conclusions drawn contrary to our own beliefs are sometimes more useful than that which supports our preconceived notions, no matter how well researched or founded. I judge first the correctness of information (sources) on which an argument is based, second the argument's logic, then I evaluate the contrary conclusions as opposed to my own. I find this to be sometimes quite ego damaging (I'm refering to myself only here!) but investment profits and my ego are often at odds. As much as I want to be proven right, I'm often not and must then limit my loses! Failure in this aspect of trading is imho, the main reason why so many loose in the futures casinos. The game is totally uncaring as to who wins and who loses. If I took a million dollars from it no one would notice (other than the taxman) and if I went broke, no one would care.

As for Agingfast disagreeing with M.B.'s view of the repo pool, I find it healthy to consider. I have been and still am at odds with Bolsar's and Howe's evaluation of gold derivatives. My questions arise from some conclusions drawn that seem inconclusive at best and fradulent at worst. These stem from what I believe to be basic, basic misunderstanding of how derivatives are initiated, hedged (risk management) and offset. There is also a question of a "net" position as opposed to total shorts. It has also occured to me that the total short unhedged risk is always referenced assuming no risk management and no initial gain from the initial sale. How can the downside be evaluated without knowing the real risk (which may be hedged) and the initial gain? If one takes on a mortgage to buy a home, is the total liability then only the outstanding debt (incorrectly assumed to be, at some point, immediately due in full!) or should being able to live in the home and the resale value of the home be included in the equation? I believe it was such a flawed conclusion that led to the idea that once the POG touched $354 that bankruptcies and some sort of "derivatives meltdown" would immediately ensue. That however is another issue. I also saw sector's departure as a forum lose. He seemed to decide that any questioning of his thesis was no more than a personal attack which was never implied in any way. Imho, he would have little luck in the casino.

I'm happy that our forum functions still, and wish everyone a happy weekend before the Christmas holiday. I believe that next year will be surprisingly pleasant to holders of both gold and silver (along with many tangible "items").
Rich

Belgian

(12/21/2003; 11:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113856)

Bravo misetech !

I do agree with mikal about your excellent postings. Combine your insights with John Mauldin's recent article "Oil, stock prices & the dollar". More precisely where he cites P. Garber (DB-analyst).

All this makes us understand "WHY" the US$ should "unwind" *orderly*. Thanks misetech.

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 11:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113857)

Roach on the "Bone Pile"

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?c=mw&a=855&t=pmsnippit:

A Conclusion Based on Inescapable Facts

12/19/2003 5:43:22 PM

"U.S. Jobless Claims Fell" was one of the headlines in an otherwise slow financial news day. Never mind that it could have read "U.S. Jobless Total Rises," since this also was true; the difference is whether you look at initial claims or at continuing claims.

Yet the media (and the economists they interview) continue to ignore something much bigger: the TREND in the labor market, namely that "this recovery bears no relationship whatsoever to the classic hiring-led upturns of the past." This remark comes from the one economist who is not in the rah-rah camp -- Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley.

Goldilox: I guess when the unemployment gets to be a real "problem", they'll just helicopter the funds to the pay benefits and keep the spending engine fueled up. The media continues to suggest that the labor market is doing well, trying to keep consumer spending strong. It's another example of "What me worry?" reporting. . .dem bones, dem bones.

Truthcaster

(12/21/2003; 11:55:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113858)

US TERROR LEVEL RAISED TO HIGH

Gold may get a pop on this news. Terror alert level
at high.. Dollar will likely sink on this news..
Time will tell.. Truthcaster

Goldendome

(12/21/2003; 12:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113859)

(No Subject)

A little clip from a recent Bill Bonner piece, to compliment the informative posts of late...

"Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold."
Leo Tolstoy

We wander. And we wonder. Whither gold, we ask? We have already given you our conclusion. We don't know if gold will go up or not, but it ought to do so.

Moegold

(12/21/2003; 13:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113860)

Positive Gold in local press

http://www.sacbee.com/content/business/columns/sirard/story/7989681p-8926344c.htmlIn today's local newspaper there was an article by Jack Sirard: "As dollar tumbles, gold rises". It recommended a 5% position in gold. If local stories like this start showing up in local papers across the land maybe the ordinary investor will take notice.

Dollar Bill

(12/21/2003; 13:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113861)

*>*

Sir Agingfast,
You said;
"What I'd like to see cataloged, along with appropriate proof, are the conspiracy theorists' secret, hidden manipulations of asset prices that are caused by the Fed or the US government, not by interested parties in the private sector."
In my posts, I believe I said dollar "rise" when meaning dollar decline.
My guess on asset prices, well, you know about the so called off shore trading? Enron used shell companies, dervitive players located, well even though most of those companies are said to be registered in the islands, they are in south jersey ! Princeton area. Seen some of them myself actually. There is some cohesion to the "interested parties" There is, in my opinion, a strong cohesion amongst
some very large players that while not part of the fed, or us govt, in a sense, they are.

You notice the manipulation of the US press? Hard to find the "proof" that we can point to in a way that will make everyone go "gee, I guess they really are manipulating" but the evidence is there in the daily press and tv media.
Someone can say, oh, it is the combined opinions of graduates of the us education system, no conspiracy there...(oh?)...and I would just say, that is a part, yes, but...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/21/2003; 14:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113862)

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Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 14:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113863)

Dollar Bill

I just don't believe that intervention (tape painting) is able to prevent major market moves from occurring or to isolate certain asset classes from those moves.

A couple of decades ago, because the Fed couldn't allow extremely high price inflation to continue, it increased the federal funds rate to extremely high levels, and no amount of intervention, from any source, could have prevented the subsequent decline in the prices of gold and silver.

More recently, because the Fed also can't allow extremely low, or negative, price inflation (as measured by the misleading numbers cranked out by government statisticians -- a wonderful irony) it has decreased the funds rate to extremely low levels, and it seems logical to expect that now no amount of intervention, from any source, will be able to prevent a rise in the prices of gold and silver.

Dollar Bill

(12/21/2003; 14:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113864)

*>*

Sir Agingfast, asset prices again...
When I see the real estate market, I know some amount is lemmings, but I scratch my head at reading about the smart money that is going into reits and other real estate investments. Bonner, said recently real estate was on his short list of recommended invesments. egad.
Are there assumptions, blind ones at that, or quiet little messages that the fed has decided that supports of the housing market that can be used, will be used.
Ones like, lengthening mortgage lifetimes, to 100 years waiting off the table ready when needed? Tax changes that can happen?

I was just reading about some NY Manhatten neighborhoods that are considered fully developed. All the condos that fit are there. These people are not idiots, and smart money is among them, but I cannot fathom it. Where does Bonner get his confidence?

Dollar Bill

(12/21/2003; 15:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113865)

*>*

Sir Agingfast, you said;
"and it seems logical to expect that now no amount of intervention, from any source, will be able to prevent a rise in the prices of gold and silver."
It is the frustration of logic I guess that infuriates some forum posters. They make a smart logical investment, and find manipulation that costs them investment money.
I have had issues with gata, I can hardly remember why, but how wrong are they that gold is manipulated? No very I would guess.
How strong are those forces of manipulation? So strong that my mind was blow recently by the selling of gold by some gold holding mine company. Was it barricks? Canadian company sold a large amount of gold for $408. Sold thier whole pile !
It might be a good day for freinds of gata to discuss thier views of manipulation.
I think I objected, or was scared of, the results of upending the system. Aristotle here assured me not to worry.
I decided to go with his assessment.

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 15:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113866)

Manipulation?

@ Dollar Bill

Goldcorp was the company that sold a large stash - 8T, I believe. The average price, as they implied it was a succession of sales, not one single transaction, was $385/oz. Important, as well, they made NO mention of what percentage of their "pile" this represented, but instead reiterated that they would continue to hold back at least 10% of their ongoing production to sell at opportune moments in the future.

GoldCorp is a gold "PRODUCER", so their business model is to mine gold and sell it. Whether everyone agrees with the PR value of the size of their sale or their CEO's stock sale, is another question, but they deserve to have the details of their actions reported as accurately as we can.

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 15:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113867)

Dollar Bill - Real Estate

Since real estate, and the CRB, represent what Puplava calls "things," i.e., tangibles, perhaps it's simply a fact that the rise in real estate prices and in the CRB got started along with the rise in gold and silver prices when the fed funds rate was lowered dramatically? Also, of course, Asia can't export real estate to the US.

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 15:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113868)

M contraction

@ AgingFast

I find it interesting (and smarter folks than I have mentioned it) that the money supply is contracting without the FED raising rates as they did in 1987. Does this mean that things are harder for them to control, or just that they are too concerned that a rate rise will kill the ballooning SM and alter the public econmic perception this close to a national election?

Ag Mountain

(12/21/2003; 15:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113869)

Goldilox details

In the interest of accuracy, at the time of the company's announcement it was reported that the average price obtained was $388, and the percentage of the stockpile sold was 100%. There's no doubt about it.

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 16:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113870)

Real Estate Assets

@AgingFast

We've certainly seen RE bubbles before. In the 80's, the Japanese repatriated their trade imbalance dollars and purchased large properties in expensive commercial US neighborhoods. The result of that price bubble was a correction in prices that deflated their assets drastically. Part of the fallout, however, was some brutal value depreciation in cities like LA, leaving homeowners underwater on their mortgages for many years.

The Chinese are NOT biting that bait in the current US RE market, and are spending their excess dollars for tangibles that assist their industrial growth . . . tractors, combines, airplanes, trucks, oil, gold, etc. The result may well be a producing economy that completely dwarfs Japan. However, they also have a fast growing consumer class to temper their need to sell everything they make overseas.

I have always believed that Real Estate is a buy and sell investment, perhaps longer term than most, but many people let 30 year mortgages lull them in to believing Real Estate is a straight up 30 year investment, which most market numbers do not support.

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 16:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113871)

GoldCorp Sale

@ AG

You are correct. The announcement also states that half of the stash was gold purchased on the open market for $66 dollars an oz less than the sale price (profits are a good thing). They further state that they will continue to hold back production at the rate of at least 10% to capitalize on continued price increases. They sound pretty bullish on gold prices to me, as Red Lake is the richest deposit currently being mined.

Again, some have interpreted this as a bearish statement to the gold world in general, and I don't. I just think they decided to take some profits in a big move. Their bad PR handling seems to have backfired, but they remain an important producer of gold.

R Powell

(12/21/2003; 16:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113872)

Plunge Protection Team

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/blackm/plunge.htm Old article, link still works.
I just thought Agingfast and others who may not be familar with this might want to have some light Sunday night reading.

misetich

(12/21/2003; 16:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113873)

Agingfast (12/21/03; 11:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 113854)

Your comments

Likewise, CB sales of gold are jawboned as an attempt to diversify their reserves. But actions such as those are out in the open. They are not secret, hidden manipulations of the POG.

..............
Misetich

There's more than "jawboning" going on - here's a link to

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary26.html#anchor25233

Snip:

Even at 4000 tonnes, the world producer hedge book could never seem to account for more than about a third of the total forwards and swaps reported by the BIS. Now, with that number almost cut in half, total forwards and swaps as reported by the BIS remain marginally above their year-end 2001 level and not far off their year-end 2002 peak. Taking GFMS's delta-adjusted figures, the decline in producer hedge books is not quite as steep, but still amounts to a drop of nearly 700 tonnes or almost 25% since year-end 2001. Indeed, most of this decline (436 tonnes) came in 2002 when the BIS actually reported rising forwards and swaps.

Taken as whole, these numbers cast serious doubt on the widely-accepted assumption that producer hedging is responsible for the great bulk of total gold derivatives, particularly forwards and swaps. Notwithstanding the efforts of the BIS to eliminate double-counting, some have argued that its higher figures are the result of unspecified overlaps which have the effect of inflating producer hedging to much higher levels than those reported by GFMS. But if this argument were valid, reductions in producer hedge books should have operated in reverse to deflate the BIS's figures on gold derivatives by equally large amounts.
End of Snip

If you refer to JP Morgan etc as "by interested parties in the private sector. " then you're rightly correct. However who owns the US Federal Reserve?

Here's a few link that may assist you

http://www.save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html

http://www.totse.com/en/politics/international_banking_money_laundering/fedowns.html

In view of your incredulity on Feds PPT markets interventions and Gold price manipulation .....

ANOTHER snip from Reg Howe's article

Also shown in tonnes are the gold derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks as of September 30, 2003, as reported by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm). Held almost entirely by J.P. Morgan Chase, Citibank and HSBC USA, the total notional value of these gold derivatives rose in the third quarter to $80.9 billion from the roughly $70 billion level where they had been holding since year-end 2002. As can be seen from the breakdown by bank included in the GOLD MARKET REGRESSION CHARTS also updated today, the third quarter increases were spread across all three major U.S. bullion banks.

End of Snip

It seems that the investment bankers that own the Fed are also heavily involved in the gold market

What is your take on the massive gold derivatives positions?

In light of recent scandals involving the owners of the Federal Reserve it is not inconceivable that these same outfits are doing " what they consider - legal actiivities_ through the establishment of phoney companies ala Enron fiasco

It would assist if the Feds, SEC, CFTC etc would have adequate disclosure laws covering these investment bankers

...............

Your other comment deserves further scrutini

Further, now that fed funds have essentially troughed, thereby re-igniting inflation expectations in the minds of many investors,
.................

Misetich

You're implying that POG price rise in US $ terms is rising through "re-igniting inflation expectations" without consirering the big macro picture

Low Fed rates are the "symptom" not the cause

Here's a snip from Richard Russel on the big macro picture that provides the basis of a rising pog

"

Big Picture --As I see it, this is a particularly fascinating juncture in US and world economic history.

On the big picture, the US is rapidly losing its manufacturing base to Asia.

On the big picture, the dollar is on its way to losing its status as the world's reserve currency.

On the big picture, the dollar for the first time in recent history has a legitimate rival -- the euro.

On the big picture, this big bear market rally has been generated by artificially lowered short-interest rates and by the greatest Fed-generated spate of liquidity in US history.

End of Snip

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell122203.html

Misetich

The Feds and their respective owners are running out of bullets to keep the gold manipulation going

"Producers hedging" has disappeared due to low IR and due to non-availability of POG from Central Banks to dispose

The signatories to the Washington Agreement effectively own 85% of Central Banks - owned or RECEIVABLE

The majority of other CB's have 15% such as Kuwait have probably already disposed of theirs through swaps, lease or sale

...........

The Gold Bull Express has just left the station -
Asking goldbugs to provide "consiracy proof" may not be the appropro question

The question that should be asked is how will the US $ turn its fortunes around?

How will the US cope with the capital deficit account?

Goldbugs don't need to provide "consiracy proof" - it is up to the Feds to provide an explanation of rising POG worlwide.

Central bankers are DISHORDING US $ an going to Euro's and Gold

Your "exceptation of re-igniting inflation" as a reason for a rising POG just doesn't wash-

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 17:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113874)

R Powell - PPT Article

Very stale news. The PPT's plan for dealing with a rare financial crisis doesn't mean it's involved in a program of regular, ongoing support for the equity market. And if we see another of those Monday 100-point rises in the DJIA tomorrow, I hope I don't have to hear from a dozen members of this forum that it's part of The Plot.

Great Albino Bat

(12/21/2003; 17:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113875)

misetich: GAB seconds your post.

Although a clearer understanding of the techniques utilized by the FED is desireable, and perhaps Agingfast is an expert in that field -

No question that gold has been manipulated since the gold panic of 1980 nearly wrecked the paper system imposed upon the world. (And it was manipulated long before that, too. A US Congressman declared that if the US Government did not support the price of gold at $35/oz, its price might fall to $5/oz. Yes, FIVE dollars an ounce. The US managed to get rid of a huge stash of gold in crude attempts to hold the price down; these costly attempts were later refined and continue to this day.)

The Central Banks of the world, in their collective arrogance, stupidity and inertia, and perhaps also at the behest of their owners, who thought they would obtain total freedom (for the first time in the history of mankind) from the consequences of borrowing short and lending long and from the consequences of expanding credit relentlessly, have sold, leased, swapped or deposited their gold with institutions of inferior rank who sold the gold into the market, and the CBs now are nearing the end of their rope in that game.

Gold reduced to the status of a mere decorative metal - that's the importance given to it in any journal of the world, today - means Freedom for the papermongers (How sweet it would be for them, indeed!!) and debt slavery for all mankind. Such a "consummation devoutly to be wished!"
But, mankind is showing its fundamental attraction to the yellow metal, and what an alarming situation for those who thought they had it made. How angry the bankers must be!

Agingfast: you may well be an expert in FED workings, but, please don't try to tell us there has been no manipulation of the price of gold the past twenty-odd years! You would only, in that case, make readers consider you as a "plant".

The GAB

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 17:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113876)

misetich

I offer you compelling evidence that you will reap lavish profits from your gold holdings by pointing out, free of charge, the critically important fact that the price of gold and the fed funds rate peak together and trough together, and you reject it out of hand. Oh, sharper than the serpent's tooth is man's ingratitude -- or something like that.

R Powell

(12/21/2003; 18:03:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113877)

Agingfast

Stale news? Yes, market intervention is nothing new.

I never claimed that the government was involved in an ongoing, daily intervention. But we know that they have contingency plans to intervene if deemed necessary. How often has it been used? How often is it being used? How often will it be used? Who determines when and how and how much and in which markets? Who determines and on what basis when a perceived immediate need justifies (in someone's mind) government intervention in economic markets? What conditions define a free market as opposed to a controled market? Have these interventions or even the threat of intervention changed the market behavior (lender of last resort). What are the long term effects of such management.
At what point does the controling "stabilization" efforts become a cause of the perceived ills that those efforts are trying to stabilize.

Would totally free (of any and all such efforts) behave better? I don't know and don't expect any answers here. Just food for thought.
Rich

R Powell

(12/21/2003; 18:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113878)

Fed fund rates

Agingfast, don't dispair so quickly. The lower Fed rate is indeed supporting the POG in many ways. The first effect many have been to kill the gold carry trade and discourage forward sales. Obviously, with lousy interest returns elsewhere and fear in the market, the lower rates have made gold a much more attractive place to store wealth. Even more than that, conditions (low Fed rates among them) now make tangibles an attractive investment for those seeking safe returns and for the gamblers among us.

Maybe it is the underlying monetary causes and policies that forced the Fed. to lower rates that deserves our scorn. Perhaps it's ironic that Greenspan, Bernanke and the other Fed. decision makers are now counted among gold's supporters. What an amazing puzzle, with so many pieces! I'll never understand them all but my feeble perception leads me to believe that gold, silver + other commodities are destined to increase in dollar price nonetheless. We'll see.
Rich

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 18:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113879)

FFR and gold peak and trough together?

The FED fund rate is at 1%, correct? Doesn't the statement that the FED rate and gold peak and trough together men that gold should be lower than $250, the price it held during a FED fund rate of around 4-5%? Also, While the FED was dropping the rate 13 times during 2002-3, wasn't gold appreciating? I don't get the significance of the statement. I'm no financial game whiz, so please explain in layman's terms.

Thanks,

Goldilox

Dollar Bill

(12/21/2003; 18:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113880)

*>*

Sir agingfast,
I regret the day I didnt keep the link to a chart of japanese market action over 12 years. I was amazed by the 3 perfect waves downward. Flawless mathmatical waves. Technical boys operate by thier own logics, and a market force can easily steer the technical boys. So, support at key junctures will be seen and be responded to by the technical community. If the market raises by 100 points tomorrow, I would first look to see what shorts were crushed. I remember in 99 when amazon stock went up 100 in one hour. Terrible short crushing that one was !
I remember seeing pictures in the financial pages periodically of some trader on the market floor who was the picture of a crushed individual. The trend is your freind as they say, and can the trend be helped? Oh yes.
So, I guess I already know this, any manipulation of the markets does not have to be blunt, just support at key spots in the trend. Tech boys will play the game off the key indicators. And where does that support have to come from? No need for the fed to get in there and do that, there are cohesive elements that have the pockets.
Are there other strategies? I am guessing that the only players in the tech steering game are in the US reserve currency camp.
Euro leaders keep saying they hope the dollar decline is steady. Why? They dont feel like they have control or enough influence over the global speculating community?
China starts buying product instead of dollar assets lately, the dollar does not plunge, gyrate wildly day to day, the day after the 9/11 week off trading. The dollar traders didnt freak. Steady as she goes.
Some amount of shock absorber action is in operation.
And who is watching that? Who provides input to direction?
A quiet little club that is what I would guess.
How small is that club? Seems like the last treasury secretary was not even on board. He does this review of Americas debt and even us here are saying, doesnt he get it?
This debt isnt slated to be paid off. Debt is a reserve currency priveledge and ...
How much of a sucker action is also a factor?
The govt deliberately goes into deficiet in a huge way, soaking up loose currency in other countries that dont want their currency to raise because they are not the reserve currency so they cannot afford a high currency. Japan and china spend thier money on dollar assets instead of making money riding the equity market rise. The rise that made no sense, except the sense it made to the tech traders who looked for the key support and went with the trends, in spite of the illogic of vastly overpriced stocks.
Tech logic rules. Except it appears, in the gold market.
But, even there,the speculating community seems to -until recently?- known they would be bucking the trend enforcement of gold by the cb's, and werent interested in trying to ride a gold bubble when cb's were saying "look elsewhere for a bubble to ride."

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 19:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113881)

R Powell

I'm not despairing. I'm laughing. You kiddies have handed me me more amusing moments than my great granddaughter. Now once again: The extremely high fed funds rate that resulted from the Fed's inflation fears a couple of decades ago signaled that a long period of disinflation lay ahead and that investors should buy stocks and bonds. Now the opposite is true. The extremely low fed funds rate resulting from the Fed's deflation fears is signaling that a long period of renewed inflation lies ahead and that investors should buy "things."

Goldilox

(12/21/2003; 19:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113882)

Signals

@ AgingFast

OK, I got the signals part. That sunk in past my shell of overedumacated smuckheadedness. Would you be so kind as to address the peaks and troughs thing again? Either I missed what you were saying, or the numbers don't seem to support it . . .????
see post #113879 for the question.

thanks muchly,
Goldilox

Druid

(12/21/2003; 19:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113883)

Goldilox (12/21/03; 15:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 113868)

"Does this mean that things are harder for them to control, or just that they are too concerned that a rate rise will kill the ballooning SM and alter the public econmic perception this close to a national election?"

Druid: The bond speculators are feeding off the Fed and its short term interest rate policies. What used to be a market that kept the Fed in check in terms of policy matters is now a market that is acting in unison with the Fed. In this instance, the speculators are acting as accomplices to Fed policy by helping drive rates lower vis-a-vis the bond carry trade. Remember this is a $100 trillion+ dollar interest rate swap market that is rowing with the Fed. If the Fed should just out of the blue have an impromptu closed-door meeting and change short-term interest rate policy, the rowing would seize up(every shark for himself) and it would be interesting to watch the boat gyrations from a distance. My guess is that it would have a very bad effect on the stock market and upcoming election, but then, up is no longer up and down is no longer down.

glennh10

(12/21/2003; 19:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113884)

PPT and Market Manipulation

To add still more to the broth,
I have no doubt that the Working Group on Financial Markets was created to do good. In December 1913, the members of Congress and President Wilson who brought the Fed into existence did it with good intentions, as well.

As the present monetary system gets more and more unpredictable and uncontrollable, the Fed is going to have to get more and more creative in its "management" of the economy. Could it be that the PPT might also exercise this power, from time to time, for political gain? If so, they certainly aren't going to announce it. And, it could very well be a temptation. It is a tool that's available; human beings are not infallible when opportunities present themselves. My point is that ANY law permitting market manipulation is ripe for abuse.

For that reason, I cannot rule out that such manipulation might be done more regularly than originally intended. In my book, manipulation is fraudulent. That's why I support a return to honest money, free markets, and gold; it strikes the issue at its root.

Agingfast

(12/21/2003; 19:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113885)

Goldilox

Most of the huge decline in the fed funds rate -- AND the final lows in POG and POS -- occurred in 2001.

Dollar Bill

(12/21/2003; 19:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113886)

*>*

Sir Druid, good point, can the interest rate derivitive market EVER turn and go the other way? How does that market orchestrate a reversal?
Now there is a fog enshrouded financial world. At least to me.

Goldbug 1

(12/21/2003; 19:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113887)

Coloured Money

I am in Hanoi. Just for interest I can report that the new American "coloured" money is happily circulating here. Love the gold $20!

Druid

(12/21/2003; 19:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113888)

Goldilox (12/21/03; 18:43:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 113879)

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html#anchor196905Druid: Yes there used to be an inverse relationship between the two variables but something is amiss. Enjoy the read.

steady

(12/21/2003; 21:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113889)

up or down/ 50- 50

if you have been following the gold market you will rember what has happened on past raising of terror alerts. the pog has gone down. lets hope the trend breaks with this announcment!

Druid

(12/21/2003; 22:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113890)

Dollar Bill (12/21/03; 19:35:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 113886)

"Sir Druid, good point, can the interest rate derivitive market EVER turn and go the other way? How does that market orchestrate a reversal?
Now there is a fog enshrouded financial world. At least to me."

Druid: DollarBill, you have asked the $100 trillion dollar question. A very difficult question indeed. I have no idea how a reversal can take place without doing considerable financial damage across all markets, but then, I can't explain how high unemployment creates the physical economic foundation for a wonderful GDP forecast of 8.2%. So my best guess is that, in the interim, rates both on the long and short end remain range bound till something "dramatically" happens in other markets to change the range and induce panic. I think most, if not all, of us on this board know that this "dramatic" event is currently in progress.

commish

(12/21/2003; 23:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113891)

@Goldbug 1 - To review history

Following the Vietnam conflict wasn't Gold used as barter in order to escape on boats? Welcome aboard.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/22/2003; 02:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113892)

Last-minute shopping woes got you down? It's not too late!!

http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

Six hours remain for your order to
qualify for Christmas Eve delivery!

place your jewelry order by 8am MST (10am Eastern Time)

DummyANI

(12/22/2003; 02:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113893)

Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:

Date: Net short change COMEX-Gold CRB �cWTI
Dec. 01 63,734. minus2315�c...396.8 ..248.44 ..30.41<---wrong-short
Dec. 02 63,256. minus0478�c...402.7 ..254.37 ..29.95
Dec. 03 61,780. minus1476�c...403.7 ..256.74 ..30.78
Dec. 04 66,576�c plus4796�c...403.9 ..257.76 ..31.10
Dec. 05 62,807. minus3769�c...403.3 ..258.39 ..31.26<---wrong-short
Dec. 08 64,645�c plus1838�c...406.4 ..257.54 ..30.73
Dec. 09 64,019. minus1476�c...406.6 ..260.61 ..32.10
Dec. 10 65,796�c plus1777�c...408.2 ..261.05 ..31.76
Dec. 11 66,395�c plus0599�c...406.2 ..260.40 ..31.88
Dec. 12 64,963. minus1432�c...404.6 ..259.09 ..31.85
Dec. 15 62,813. minus2150�c...409.4 ..262.44 ..33.04
Dec. 16 60,008. minus2805�c...409.2 ..260.84 ..33.18<---wrong-short
Dec. 17 59,428. minus0580�c...407.7 ..259.31 ..32.85
Dec. 18 59,276. minus0152�c...412.0 ..261.35 ..33.35
Dec. 19 60,771�c plus1495�c...410.4 ..261.14 ..33.71
Dec. 22 57,104. minus3667�c...409.2 ..260.87 ..33.02<---wrong-short

D-ANI: Japanese budget deficits and account deficits are advancing those of USA. But Yen is rising, a very gloomy financial storm is generated in the Pacific
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Boilermaker

(12/22/2003; 06:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113894)

"See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil."

When reading the posts from last evening one poster reminded of the classic trio. To argue that years of specific, circumstantial and empirical evidence of gold manipulation gathered and disseminated by some very dilligent investigators does not suggest manipulation fits this classic attitude. I think we should move on and agree to disagree.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/22/2003; 07:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113895)

Who's Buying Gold?

For simplicity let's say there are two classes of investors, smart and dumb. Smart investors buy low and sell high. Dumb investors sell low and buy high.

Now let's take an asset, gold, where for the past three years or so the sellers have been the dumb investors, selling gold for $US and the buyers have been the smart ones by trading $US for gold. During this time we have been well documented with the sales of large tranches of gold by the dumb investors such as the BOE, other CB's and some well known miners. We are also frequently informed of future plans for large gold disposals by these same dumb investors.

But there seems to be a dearth of information about the smart investors who are trading their depreciating $US for gold. We hear about the classic jewelry offtake in India, new sales in China and other small markets like us misguided goldbugs but no mention of large scale purchases except for the Gold Corp case about a year ago. It seems odd to me that there have been no large scale buys or that no mention is made of them. The Swiss have been selling 5 or 6 tons per week for several years. Isn't anyone curious where this is going?

The financial media is constantly trying to find the new hot sector. Gold is warm and getting hot. Where's the analysis of the smart buyers? Who are they? All I've seen is speculation from "Le Metropole" about a secretive Asian investor "The Stalker".

I think we smart investors should start planting some rumors of large scale buyers such as the Swiss gold is being delivered to London banks for the accounts of large Middle Eastern and Asian buyers. Who could deny it? I'm sure the collective genious at this forum could come up with a lot of big "smart" buyers.

Boilermaker

steady

(12/22/2003; 08:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113896)

rumors/facts

why spread rumors when the facts speak for themselvs?

the large buyer has been me.

just rember everything is relative to oneself. with what ive been buying i'm surprized the pog isnt over 430 yet.

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 08:47:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113897)

$410 futures options theory still holding.....

POG will close at or below $409.90 tomorrow. Then the price will be allowed to rise to some pre-determined level for the February contracts, IMO.

Happy holidays!
PA

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 08:50:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113898)

Gold sales

@ Steady

Now we know the reason for the security alert. Too much gold in the hands of Sir Steady makes TPTB very insecure.

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 09:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113899)

Some Advice For Gold Bugs

The dumbest way I know to promote gold as an attractive asset is to constantly whine about powerful, clever and dedicated public and private sector forces who are working day and night, worldwide, to SUPPRESS the price of gold -- and the dumbest way to warn investors about the hazards of paper investments is to constantly whine about powerful, clever and dedicated public and private sector forces who are working day and night, worldwide, to RAISE the prices of paper assets.

In the interest of full disclosure have available for potential investors as brief as possible a list of the price-suppression schemes you believe are at work, briefly documenting, to the extent possible, the proof of those schemes and the respective roles believed to be played by private sector parties and public sector parties. (But when there are claims of alternative explanations for perceived market manipulations, as in the case of the alleged use of the Fed repo pool for propping up the DJIA, you might mention that, too.)

The alleged price suppressors don't brag about how clever and successful their efforts are -- they let the gold bugs do that for them. They want YOU to do that. They depend on YOU to discourage potential investors. So after you've prepared the list, set it aside -- don't let it continue to dominate your whole life -- and concentrate on promoting the attractions of gold.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 09:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113900)

Heightened terror alert lifts Nymex gold above $410

snippit:

December 22, 2003 10:27:43 (ET)

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures prices traded back above $410 an ounce Monday, as a heightened terrorism alert ordered in the U.S. prompted nervous investors to seek refuge in the precious metal.

"With holiday-lightened trading ahead and a backdrop of an increased security threat in the U.S., the bulls start the week with the upper hand," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider.

Goldilox:

Thanks to the geniuses at CBS, we now know that fundamentals are unimportant and gold only moves at the graces of Terrorism Czar Tom Ridge.

Clink!

(12/22/2003; 09:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113901)

@ Boilermaker

Great idea ! We had a competition about a year ago concerning who bought the 30 Portuguese tons - there must be some useful material among the entries !

But wait ! There's a flaw in the logic. Who would believe such rumors - dumb investors, right ? And aren't they the ones selling at the moment ? So are you just trying to turn dumb investors into smart ones ? And I thought Sinclair had the monopoly on that in the gold world (LOL!).

But to be serious for a minute, the lack of buying news is that there are (virtually) no dumb investors, IMVHO, but just dumb financial managers supervising a 'controlled burn'. You are not going to spook them into selling more or less, because they are the ones who get a glimpse of the falling fuel gauge.

C!

Clink!

(12/22/2003; 09:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113902)

@ Goldilox

Yeah ! We know better. I've locked in my Feb delivery duct tape options.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 09:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113903)

Advice

@ AgingFast

Amen. Buying gold for other than fundamentals is as crazy as carrying huge longs in 100+ PE stocks. Convincing someone to buy for political reasons is using them for momentum instead of educating them to understand value. How many people bought gold in 1980 at $800 on momentum alone only to be left holding the bag for decades?

admin

(12/22/2003; 09:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113904)

News & Views

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4828771∾tion=articleUpdated.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

sage

(12/22/2003; 09:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113905)

always learning

I have a question for the collective wisdom of this forum. I recently rolled a 401k into a precious metals fund and watched it grow dramatically, alas as the price of physical increases much to my joy, I am now watching my precious metals fund decrease significantly and was wondering if this trend is something to be concerned about and should I therefore cut my losses, cash it, pay my taxes and buy more physical from our fine host here. Am I correct in gleaning from this forum that because of the practices of hedging that the mines are literally losing stock value and money even thought the metal they mine is increasing in value? I seek nothing more then honesty and your humble opinions. Also I have noticed that the premiums for silver seem in a matter of % very high. Would someone enlighten me on why? And what is the relationship between silver and gold. I am always seeking truth and learning.

steady

(12/22/2003; 09:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113906)

duos

mutt and jeff, bonnie and clyde, stan and ollie,
george and gracie, rember that, as we sift thru the chaff and wheat, looking for true real golden nuggets posted here. let the breeze generated by the bubbling caldera carry away what chaff gathers here for unknown reasons.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 09:43:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113907)

IRA in PM funds

@ Sage:

PM equities have been hit lately, and many blame the "Barron's effect", but profit taking is a normal market function after great price runs. Before you dump them, decide where you think they're going from here. "Past performance is no guarantee of future movement".

Liquidation of the IRA into a non-IRA position involves nasty tax and penalty costs, so be sure that is included in your calculations. IRA abandonment is typically less costly when you have no other taxable income (like an unemployed year), to keep tax liability minimized - the 10% penalty still applies if you're under 59 1/2. If you wish to move your IRA into physical storage, Jonathon at CPM has a connection he'll be glad to give you.

I have been told that silver premiums are higher because the high weight to value ratio of silver increases handling costs. I'm sure Rich and Townie have their own ideas on this, as well.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 09:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113908)

Duos

Let us not forget our own precious Spot and Spike, the dynamic duo of POG.

Dollar Bill

(12/22/2003; 09:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113909)

*>*

Sir agingfast, Randy and MK handle the marketing.
Quite well actually.
Posters here, are not talking to the wider world, again, I view them as serious students, and I myself, would disparage non of them.

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 10:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113910)

Dollar Bill

Sorry. I didn't realize you are a closed club, talking only to yourselves. Where did I get the idea this is a public forum?

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 10:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113911)

Futures

http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=GCInterestingly, DEC gold (expiring tomorrow?) is almost a dollar above FEB gold.

411.5 vs. 410.8

The futures market seems to be predicting correction between now and then.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 10:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113912)

Closed club

@ Agingfast

As in any forum, some are talking only to hear themselves talk! CAVEAT EMPTOR!

Dollar Bill

(12/22/2003; 10:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113913)

*>*

When contests are run, 60 or so people respond.
I have come to like reading the posters. Calling some kiddies and dumb and goldbugs is your choice,
it is not public in the sense that Admin. does indeed reprimand and evict. Towering lights like FOA and ORO discovered that.

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 10:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113914)

Breaking my losing streak...... $410

While I will admit that I periodically make predictions to a) hear myself talk and b) appear to know more than I actually do, it appears that I may have nailed this one.

Patting myself on the back.

PA

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 10:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113915)

Back Patting

@ PA

I'm not betting against you, but be careful about counting your chickens. There's still 24 hours to go. Witching days can be WEIRD!

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 10:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113916)

@ Goldilox

If history is any guide, the safe bet is to take the opposite position from what I predict. I am notoriously wrong 99.9% of the time.

PA

Boilermaker

(12/22/2003; 10:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113917)

Abetting a Scam

Perhaps we goldbugs who see manipulation should remain quiet about it. We know the game and would be better able to prolong it for our own benefit. There is no doubt in my mind that the big gold buyers are doing exactly that. However, I am just as sure that many of us here at the forum sense that the larger danger to our well-being is posed by a financial/economic meltdown associated with the collapse of the $US. So we rant about manipulation in hopes that it will end sooner than later. Whoever acts to perpetuate this charade is adding to the weight of the consequences.

Boilermaker

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/22/2003; 10:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113918)

Build your financial house on a solid foundation

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Knallgold

(12/22/2003; 11:28:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113919)

Lips

In the recent "Schweizerzeit",a conservative weekly newspaper close to Blochers SVP (you might remember my conversation with CB-2 the other day),has 2 snippets,almost a side long,from Ferdi Lips' book "Goldwars" plus a commentary by a Professor Theodor Abt.There is now a german version available,the title is a rather courageous "Die Goldverschw�rung" (=The Goldconspiracy).

I too ordered one (I prefered a german version) but the delivery has been delayed,demand was just too big to handle for the rather small distributor...who buys all this conspiracy stuff :-)

Mr Gresham

(12/22/2003; 11:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113920)

Fruit flies? That was a good one I'd never heard before.

Excuse me, I'm having a Spinal Tap moment ("Break Like the Wind" -- was that their album, or concert tour?)

Also, got Jan & Dean in my head this A.M. : "She's real fine my 409". Shoulda played that one, if I'd thought of it.

Maybe next, it's the Stones? "Get me on Flight Number 505"

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 11:42:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113921)

Cheering Songs for POG

@ MR G

How about the Beatles,

"Baby says she's travelling on the One after 909!"

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/22/2003; 11:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113922)

Page Update!

(12/22/2003; 11:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113923)

Mr Gresham, Fruit Flies

Good copy, but I can't take credit for it.

Melting Pot

(12/22/2003; 11:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113924)

Thanks USAGOLD/CPM

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/theend.htmlThis year I did not shop at the malls or the traditional retail outlets for holiday gifts. Instead Centennial was contacted and I purchased gifts of bullion gold coins wrapped in a beautiful gold bezel. By this means, my purchase supported PM stocks, the physical demand and price of gold and also offered a bit of protection to the ones I truly care about.

My core position of gold was purchased back at $272 / $277 area along with my PM stocks. Needless to say it was very tough to justify purchasing at the higher prices. Since I am no economist or rocket scientist I am far from being able to really truly value gold and must rely on instict and accepted financial data.

To justify my purchase the first thing I eliminated was the control of POG. It just doesn't matter..."the laws of economics cannot be conned." --Alan Greenspan, 1966 "Gold and Economic Freedom

Secondly, gold mine output is and has traditionally been around 2500 tonnes annually while debt and monetary growth are rising exponentially. "In the abscense of the gold standard there is no means to protect savings." --Alan Greenspan, 1966 "Gold and Economic Freedom

Thirdly:

50% Collapse Of The Dollar Signals Bankruptcy Of The Nation

Snip;

*****"The current account deficit of the United States brings us toward bankruptcy. The insane policies of the present administration, in terms of budgetary policy, tax policy, and so forth, have brought the nation to bankruptcy. It is worse than that: We are now in a crisis, which is fully as serious as that which Franklin Roosevelt faced in March of 1933."*****

*****"There's no way that we will get to the November 2004 election, with the United States which continues to represent what most foolish people believe it represents, at this moment today. This will not happen months down the line: We're on the verge of a total collapse. The breaking point could come at any moment. It could come in your Christmas stocking--or in the hole in your Christmas stocking. It could come later, because the ability to print money indefinitely, and using electronic means, as well as printing-press means, does give governments the ability to postpone a collapse which is already onrushing. Such methods of postponing a collapse, however, only make things worse. But we're in that period, at which, in a fairly short period of time, in the near term--during the course of the coming year, if it doesn't happen before Christmas--this thing is going down!"*****

http://larouchein2004.net/pages/pressreleases/2003/031216dollar.htm

Fourthly;

Bundesbank December Monthly Report

In its latest monthly report, the German Bundesbank devotes a special chapter to the "stability of the German financial system". The bank notes that "external geopolitical shocks and strong gyrations on global financial markets" are now among the biggest risks for the financial system.

"The extraordinary current account imbalances, in particular in the US," could lead to "abrupt movements on foreign exchange markets," the report states. This risk could even be increased by "plenty of worldwide liquidity", which could "promote the emergence of financial asset price exuberance and an infection of mis-valuations from one market to the other."

The situation would further worsen price inflation and cause interest rates to go up. The report states that a rise in interest rates could have 'grave negative consequences", particularly for economies that "show signs of an over-heated real estate market, on top of high levels of private indebtedness."

Again, the Bundesbank points to the US economy, where the "indebtedness of private households has increased sharply in recent years, and in 2002 reached 110% of disposable incomes, an all-time high", while the savings rate has been very low. All of this increases the "financial vulnerability of private households" in the US.

Should the real economies be hit by one of the mentioned scenarios, the credit quality of corporations would also be damaged, thereby causing severe problems for the corporate bond markets.

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

Fifthly and most importantly;

Debt backed by debt "Fractional reserve banking," to be sustained from this point means that MZM growth must grow faster and faster exponentally like it has been since the early 60's...

Can Rates be dropped past zero faster and faster eponentally faster and faster?

The answer is NO...that is impossible...

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

So from now until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

Or the System will collapse...the end

Try all you want to deny it...the dawn of economic doomsday is upon us...

Rates across the spectrum must crash to sustain growth...
Mortgage rates especially...and that will only buy a few more months to live in "THE GOOD OLD DAYS"

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/theend.html

In conclusion, TPTB may be able to buy time, but it appears there are but only two ways out of the current dillema, namely hyper-inflation or depression.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." --Human Action, p. 572.

Mr Greenspan would have us believe that the forces of inflation and deflation are offsetting in the economy. I say bah humbug, thats complete and total nonsense perpetuated for the media clowns and masses of lemmings. I liken it to the illustration of a man with one foot in boiling water and the other foot in zero degree water. Using Sir Greenspans hedonic measures the man should be quite comfortable on paper, yet in the realm of the "REAL" which we dwell a completely differnt picture emerges when factual and actual data is employed than the picture Sir Greenspan and his minions paint. When all else fails: LIE, and when that fails do some more. What else can they do at this point?

So whats gold worth? Beats me, I just know it's value & human worth grows more and more each day relative to the trillions of legal tender fiat being produced. Actually thats all I really have to know.

Happy Holidays to all,

Melting Pot

Not investment advice. Presented for educational purposes only.

PS: Centennials service was great and delivery was exceptionally fast. Thanks Centennial! And no they didn't pay or bribe me for this testimonial. Good luck and good investing in the approaching New Year.

misetich

(12/22/2003; 11:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113925)

US catch-22 to spur gold

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256E0400309F3B?OpenDocumentSnip:

Victoria-based economist Martin Murenbeeld, reckons bullion will "challenge $450/oz in 2004". Using a slightly more bullish scenario, however, Murenbeeld says gold could double this year's dollar gains, averaging as high as $496/oz in the final quarter of 2004.
.................
But it is the demand side of the sum, spiced with the prospect of macroeconomic turbulence in the US, that has most analysts excited. According to Chris Hart, an economist at ABSA Bank in Johannesburg, the well-documented structural weaknesses in the US economy are a happy portent for gold. But there is a growing feeling - manifest in the continued dollar weakness and gold strength - that recent bits of positive manufacturing data have only masked the underlying fundamental weakness of the US economy. Consider this, the US is running a sky-high budget deficit, expected to be as high as $495 billion, and the current account deficit, at 5 percent of GDP.
***************
Misetich

Mr. Murenbeeld goes through a few scenarios, in the article, centred around the US economy, US $ and the ballooning deficits each very bullish for gold

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/22/2003; 12:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113926)

Global: Global Venting - S. Roach

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031219-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

America, the world's unquestioned growth engine, is facing unprecedented imbalances of its own; the national saving rate, current account, Federal budget deficit, and private sector debt ratios are all at historical extremes. And an increasingly powerful global labor arbitrage continues to keep high-wage developed economies mired in jobless recoveries
....................
In that vein, a weaker dollar needs to be seen as the principal means by which the tensions of an unbalanced global economy are vented. The broadest trade-weighted index of the US dollar is currently down about 11% in real terms over the past 23 months. History tells us that global rebalancing will undoubtedly require a good deal more dollar depreciation � perhaps twice as much as that which has already occurred
..................
*****************
Misetich

If Roach is right, (and he's been on a tear for the last few years ) the US $ index would be in the 60' to 70's

Wonder what types of market disclocations would be caused by such an occurrence - for one the massive derivative gold market short position would take a serious licking

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

goldenpeace

(12/22/2003; 12:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113927)

Hall of Fame Nomination

Seems to me that Melting Pot's post #113924 should be in the HOF as a signpost of our present position "on the Road".
Nothing like a few pithy words to point the way.
Bowing
Blessings
goldenpeace

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 12:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113928)

I second the nomination for Melting Pot

A brilliant post that neatly summarizes the most impactful reasons to own gold.

Excellent work.

PA

steady

(12/22/2003; 12:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113929)

earthly forces trying to upchuck gold

we all know the earthquake in calif is just an attempt by earthly forces to get the gold closer to the surface for human hands in order to save the planet.

dam that was a trip surfing the earth waves sent by unknown forces . no i didnt get tubed not on that ride, maybe the next time i will.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 13:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113930)

More Worries about Freddie Mac

http://www.nypost.com/business/14077.htmsnippit:

"Freddie Mac is a U.S. government-sponsored agency, folks. It was created by an Act of Congress in 1970 to boost investment in the housing market. And in 1993 this oversight outfit - the OFHEO - was set up to keep an eye on it. So read on to see how your tax dollars have been spent.

FOR maybe the whole of the last 13 years, this entire organization seems to have been driven by just one relentless, single-minded (and totally illegal) obsession: creating a fake track record of rapid and relentlessly rising earnings growth, year after year.

If you look at a price chart of Freddie Mac's stock, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, you'll see the result. From the start of the 1990s all the way through to nearly the very end of the decade, the stock did just one thing: It went up, more than 1,223 percent. That's more than four times the growth rate of the Dow industrials during the period, three times IBM's rate and twice the gain racked up by General Electric.

And the OFHEO report is now telling us the whole thing was achieved by bogus accounting. Here's a quote from the report, discussing the "tone" set by the top brass at Freddie Mac - and there are many other equally rough quotes in the report regarding one aspect or another of this horrid situation."

Goldilox:

Brought ot you by none other than "Arthur Anderson". "Swordfish" accounting schemes seem to abound in all of the accounts they managed. From ENRON bilking Calif utilities (after they were set up by 'deregulation') to Freddie Mac bilking investors and fueling a mortgage bubble, the US investors/consumers keep getting "bargains" from their most trusted corporations and government agencies. What more can we expect when the average attitude is not "Stop the theft", but "where can I get mine?"

Solomon Weaver

(12/22/2003; 13:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113931)

Thoughts to Sage

Sage

RE: post 113905.

In reply to your question as to the COLLECTIVE WISDOM OF THIS FORUM.

1. You and you alone are fully responsible for your investment decisions, and I hope you will dig deep, analyze the knowledge base, and trust your own wisdom.

2. The section of this website called the "Trail" has many months worth of postings from a special friend at the forum, who was given his own page. Not all in the forum may fully agree with the THOUGHTS there....but they stimulated us all very much....you would do well to read them, and then perhaps ask some specific questions here about things you don't understand, or maybe don't agree with in those THOUGHTS.

3. Almost all gold and silver advocates will advise you that having some amount of the metal, safely in your possession, is the CORE of your precious metals holding. If you, at this time, own NO METAL (or very little compared to your metals stock fund holdings), then the answer from many real gold investors would be that it would certainly be prudent to either use some extra monies outside your IRA, or perhaps liquidate a "portion" of your IRA, and actually purchase gold and silver (coins). Our HOST of this site will give you good prices and services.

4. Gold is HARD to buy. Although gold is itself considered the mother of all liquidity, in the world of mega-credit, digital transfers, and stock ownership, it is actually very unusual to really buy GOLD. Most people opt for a "paper equivalent". Thus, a gold or silver stock is an easily tradable "ersatz" or "proxy" for gold or silver, in the eyes of a Wall Street broker or trader. So, the prices of silver and gold stocks are determined by stock traders, while the spot prices of gold and silver (what the mining companies are paid) are determined by currency traders and other hedge type players.

5. Physical Gold and Silver might best be considered a form of "portfolio insurance", which you will buy, and perhaps hold for quite some time. If you agree that a financial storm is coming, and that over the coming years, it will erode or wipe out many forms of wealth held as paper (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.), then that asset quietly waits for a day when you may one day sell it to move its value back into a market, after the storm. (Note, real estate and other tangibles are "non-paper" assets, but if there is much less (or low quality) paper to "pay" for houses, they can become very illiquid, and their price can fall.)

6. Gold and Silver mining companies are known and easily understood to make better profits when they are in a "bull" market where the spot prices of gold and silver are rising...since they have "mostly" the same costs, and get more maoney for their product. If the financial storms are more modest, and we don't see a great global market crash in paper things all at once, and stock markets are able to remain orderly yet bearish, then PM miners will typically be viewed as good "counter trend stocks" and will be showing sequential profit growth, while most other companies are showing slow or negative growth, so they can "outperform the market" in bear stock market periods. If you have made significant profits in your IRA so far, and you have mostly PM exposure, it never hurts to get some of that back into cash.

7. In any portfolio, stocks which are considered strong, and which have performed well, are often sold to lock in some profits, or to meet a margin call. According to Elliot wave theory, the current rally in stocks looks a lot like a WAVE 2 up, which would be followed by a very long and strong WAVE 3 down (back to the bear). If this happens soon, and almost all stock markets are trending down for a long ride of 12-24 months, I can assure you that PM stocks will go along for the down ride (unless there is a very large upswing in PM spot prices).

8. Regarding the "premium" on silver. My favorite place to determine the "premium" on silver is to compare spot prices to 90% and 40% junk coin prices. Today, it seems silver spot is at $5.73, while junk is at $5.93, aq $.20 (3.5%)...so I would say there is not a very high "premium" on SILVER now.

9. There is much written on the relationship between silver and gold. Of the 4 precious metals, all of which you can buy as physical, silver has the lowest price per ounce, which means for the same $$ cost you get a lot more ounces and accordingly, it has the highest cost to ship it and store it. Both gold and silver have had many years of deficit, which means that the "global ounces of demand" has exceeded the "global ounces of newly mined or recycled supply". Thus, in both cases, "vault supplies" have been moving into the market to cover the gap. "Most" of gold demand (even jewelry) is related to a "financial/savings" demand as banks, small businesses, and families all over the world seek to save in a form which is independant of their local banks. "Most" of silver demand is for industrial uses. Thus, depending on the trends in industry and finance, gold and silver may differ significantly in the public's interest. It is probably advisable to have both silver and gold in your portfolio, so that if you choose to take profits, or are forced to liquidate some, you may sell the one which has done better.

10. Both silver and gold have been brought from vaults into the market, to cover the deficits in each, by means of a financial contract called LEASING, often without the owners really understanding it. For example, if you were to invest $100,000 in silver bullion, it would weigh almost 1000 pounds, so you might decide to arrange for a bullion storage facility to keep it safe. On the day you want to "sell" your silver, you usually don't have that facility ship it to the buyer, you have that facility provide a "certificate"...the buyer may be quite happy to keep the silver at the same place. Such facilities are usually owned by large banks, with good credit, so they will often actually "lease" much of that silver out to someone who sells it to the market, with a contract which requires "repayment in metal, not cash". As long as all future repayments are possible, they should always be able to get back the real metal, if you, as the owner, decide you really want it.

But, there is a problem now at hand, in that many billions of dollars worth of gold and silver, owned by people, has actually been leased, and at some point, the market may need to provide enough "surplus" to allow repayment.

With gold, the counterparties to these leases are mainly big banks (even governmental banks) which have loaned their gold, and it would be disruptive to their other financial activities to suddenly demand large scale paybacks of the leased material.

With silver, it is more likely that large industrial users of silver, and certain wealthy individuals are the "owners", and they are very likely to demand repayment (or make demands that that the storage facility proves they have the silver).

Thus, if the leasing problem ever really raises it's ugly head, it will probably cause grid-lock in the silver markets, long before it hits the gold markets.

......These are all just some thoughts and observations about some of the parameters in PM investing....in the end it is up to you, to make your own mental map of the terrain, place your bets, and live the consequences. Lastly, as many here will testify, silver and gold MIGHT give you some nice rewards over time, but they are not a good "get rich quick scheme". Rather they are probably a "don't go broke so fast scheme" which will allow you to sleep soundly in the market when others are losing their shirts and only seeing it in their IRA statement at the end of the month.

And if we ever get to a point where most people are really broke, and you have even a modest PM reserve (and have not mismanged your financial life otherwise), then your PM insurance might help you start a business or some other useful thing.

Good luck....

Poor old Solomon

balzac

(12/22/2003; 13:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113932)

PA'S PREDICTION

PAPER AVALANCHEYOUR OBSERVATION ON 3RD SAT. PRICE VS. 4TH MON. HAS COME TRUE. NOW I HAVE TO TEST IT NEXT MONTH WITH SPOT GOLD OR A FUTURES CONTRACT.

BALZAC

Federal_Reserves

(12/22/2003; 13:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113933)

The real deal.

The economy is set to tail spin on poor consumer spending. Lets review. The first econo hit came in 2000 when the Y2k/internet spending boom terminated. That recession was business led. Big employment cutbacks as capital spending sagged. Policy makers reacted with massive tax cuts and huge government spending programs along with massive rate cuts. It was enough to prop up consumer demand and keep things afloat. Without those tax cuts no question the economy would have collasped on the back of the Y2k bust. And to the extent that terrorism has been a boon to spending, its been helpful as well!

Now the next leg is ready to engage as consumers have finally emptied their pockets and are running out of spending fuel. There is one more possible spending burst
due this spring on the tax returns but after that its
over.

The latest 3 month retail sales rates are falling from 6% rates to 2% and money supply growth (leading indicator) is now negative, indicating contraction. Witness to this - WMT and TGT reported disappointing sales. The RLX (retail index) has broken support downward out of a consolidation pattern. While production output is rising as indicated by the 20year high in the ISM diffusion index it doesn't take an MBA to see that if sales at the retail level are slowing and output is growing, a possible inventory GLUT could be building that will not be sold without price discounting and profit hits. Home sales dropped at last report while starts and permits are soaring in yet another amazing flash of coming glut.

Lets take a look at the consumer nuclear spending power plant. The REFI index has collapsed. No more cash out ATM money machine. The Purchase index holding up but for how long? The bloom is coming off home prices. Yes they are up YOY some 8% but are down some 5% from the summer peaks. Consumers are maxed out on credit with no real growing ability to pay as average hourly earnings are now rising at a paltry .1% per month, and the YOY gains are only 2% vs the solid clock rate of 4% of just a two years ago. Nonwithstanding, if trends continue average hourly wage growth could go negative, as global wage arbitration forces continued muted conditions here in the USA for blue and white collar workers alike. The policy makers have developed an evil brew of large trade deficits and budget deficits that require sizable adjustments in consumer and public spending. The FED's program of asset inflation (homes, stocks, bonds, commodities) will fail as it is built on house of unstable, unmanagable, permanent debt and unsound, unbalanced foreign trade practices that are undermining the earnings power of workers around the world.

GOLD? Stick with physical and avoid the paper based stuff.

Shocked the DOW went up today on a terror threat? Why ask why? The FED dumped a huge 5.25b repo right into the NYC money center banks at 2:30pm. This kind of pumping is typical of the holiday season, and is one of the reason's for seasonal strength in the markets around the holidays.

steady

(12/22/2003; 14:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113934)

Ecoism just say yes!

ecoyes! not econo ecoism alive and kicking back subtle attempts to discredit it!

Solomon Weaver

(12/22/2003; 15:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113935)

Fed Funds Rate and Gold price.

Agingfast (12/21/03; 17:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 113876)
misetich
I offer you compelling evidence that you will reap lavish profits from your gold holdings by pointing out, free of charge, the critically important fact that the price of gold and the fed funds rate peak together and trough together, and you reject it out of hand.

....

Dear Agingfast....

Please forgive me...I am just a poor old philosopher (who mainly loves the poor mans gold silver)....and I must note that your very number of postings yesterday would indicate that you are a man who has immense knowledge....and certainly a fair share of wisdom....so, I cannot really hope to meet with you at the debating table and take any opposing views.

I might also commend you on your repeated admonitions to us here to really step back and wonder if there was a gold conspiracy.

I did, however, notice this important point you make about the Fed Funds rate and the price of gold peak and trough together, and that, with the Fed Funds rate at near historical lows, this should be very good news for those who now hold gold.

Since I am by profession a bioscientist, I am well aware of the imporance of incorporating controls into a study, and in being careful to consider if one variation "causes" a variation in another parameter. A "control" in science would be considered to be an "identical" system for comparison. For example, during the late 1980s when yen dominated currency markets, did their equivalent of Fed Funds rates parallele the price of gold in yen? Or in the 1970s when the Deutschmark was doing really well, did gold in that currency track their local bank rates? Or perhaps if we return to various times in the past, before the creation of the Federal Reserve....do we find any proof of this observation?

I have just finished reading a book on Elliot wave theory, and what has occured to me is that according to that theory, there is a bullish supercycle wave which started about the same time as the Fed was formed. UP Wave 1 was the "good" period up to 1929, DOWN Wave 2 was the Depression, UP Wave 3 ran until the late 60s, Down Wave 4 were the Stagflation and oil crisis years (following the 1971 decision of Nixon to take the dollar off of gold), Up Wave 5 were the glorious 80s and 90s, a period where paper asset UPs were very strong, but tended to outperform the REAL economy underneath them.

That theory now shows that we MAY be entering a period of several decades where the supercycle is now down.

I only use this example to encourage you to simply consider that your observation of Fed Rates and Gold prices, by virtue of the brief lifespan of the Fed, is restricted to a limited environment, which may not be the environment we are now entering into.

It is also worth considering, that even those of us here who are not conspiracy theorists, have been encouraged at some of the campfire talks on the trail (at the invitation of our host and the story teller at those events) to consider the concept that the dollar is a currency which is now nearing the end of it's timeline. Will your correlation hold in a world where Euros, and the currencies of other nations take over for the dollar??

The FED has lowered their rates so much, it is almost as if they are giving away money...and they appear not to "defend" the dollar. At the same time, gold is actually rising (temporarily? counter to the pattern you observe?). I wonder if there is not a hidden form of Gresham's law at work? Let us say that the internationally quoted dollar price for gold, serves as a link between the dollar and gold, such that it defines the "parity" or "par" element of Gresham's Law (two forms of specie (paper and coin) trade at "par"). AND YET, one of them is LESS SOUND than the other. As long as both may suffice as payment, users will move towards the weak form of specie, to transact, and will buy the second form of specie to "save"....thus the stronger form is held at an "unspoken" premium. Are we not now at the mature point in the Era of the Fed in which USA and all other nations have moved to a weak specie, and are now competing to weaken each against the other ("beggar thy neighbor"). Since in today's digital world, dominated by non-bank credit, LOWER INTEREST RATES are the primary method for PRINTING OF THE WEAKER SPECIE, and we seem to be getting a higher UPSPOKEN PREMIUM on gold, can we not undergo a period in which FED FUNDS and other bank rates become very low, even while the price of gold rises according to the expectations of Gresham?

If so, the end result (improvement in the portfolios of gold investors) could be the same, but perhaps not at all caused or even correlating with Fed Funds rates anymore.

Furthermore, let us be hypothetical and assume, in this digital world, that the "digital gold-banking" industry (and related ETF gold assets) allowed gold to once again become a primary vehicle of international transaction and liquidity. Imagine if enough of the worlds gold reserves were in that system such that many millions of people could reliably transact and save in it. Can you imagine that, along the classic lines of gold, that people would be willing to keep their "deposits" in this system without any interest payments? If this system were to be large enough (because demand-price for gold was high), can you imagine that various central banks would have to set their funds rates high to attract capital back out of the gold system? Particularly if these systems were primarily inflating the numbers of their notes? Now, with the Gedankenexperiment, it might be conjectured that the rise in demand for gold is actually the cause of the rise in funds rates. If this were true, then gold price is predictive of those rates, and certainly those rates would not serve well as indicators to sell or buy gold.

In closing....I will not have the time today to engage you today, such as misetech has yesterday....so I really offer these thoughts to the forum at large, and feel no need to even see them rebutted. But if you do so, I and others will certainly learn.

Poor old Solomon

Dollar Bill

(12/22/2003; 15:59:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113936)

*>*

Sir Solomon Weaver, you give him too much credit.

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 16:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113937)

Solomon Weaver

Since you say "gold is rising...counter to the pattern" I referred to, you've obviously missed my point. After the price of gold and the fed funds rate peaked at about the same time more than 20 years ago, the POG fell for a very long time. So now that the POG and the fed funds rate have troughed at about the same time (the final low in the POG and most of the huge decline in the funds rate both occurred in 2001) it's reasonable to expect the POG to rise for a very long time -- although some E Wave folks will warn you (incorrectly, I believe) that the POG is doomed. I don't know how my bullish comments about gold, and silver, can be so badly misunderstood.

Solomon Weaver

(12/22/2003; 16:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113938)

What is a trough then?

Ah....Sir Agingfast...

You did yet catch me with a moment to share replies.

I will agree with you that Fed Funds and Gold Silver peaked "simultaneously" of sorts (20 years ago)...and that those same rates and gold silver have both come down somewhat together.

I might, however note that since the 2001 trough you note, the funds rate has remained flat at historic lows, while gold has moved from the $250 to the $400 range. Thus, if I used the Fed Funds low rate as an indicator, I would have missed my buying opportunity in gold.

. . . .

I think the bottom line is that we "both" have probably remained quite "bullish" on gold and silver, and hopefully, we both (and all here) will enjoy the rewards.
I simply wanted to suggest to you that your brilliant (and austensibly free) advice about the Fed Funds rate having some magic relationship to the spot price of gold might be putting the cart in front of the horse....and thinking the cart will pull the horse as well.

I say, the cart (rates) will have to follow the horse (gold), no matter how the harness is attached.....

Poor old Solomon

a nation of one

(12/22/2003; 16:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113939)

to Agingfast (12/22/03; 09:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113899)

I think your assessment is essentially correct. But many
people flinch when they read clear words about themselves.
I have found it important to remember that a great
majority of human beings are only of average intelligence
or below. Many of these believe that if words are
unpleasant, they must be untrue. This one fact alone
explains a lot about human beings and their behavior. If
something is pleasant, more people believe in it, just for
that reason. Whether it is true is not important to them.
Certainly by no means should a man concentrate his
energies on selecting soft words however. For then the
substance of what he says will be less. This does not
mean, though, that people will like it. One needs to
realize this.

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 16:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113940)

Peak and Trough

@ AgingFast

The FED Fund rate is currently troughed at 1%. Does that suggest $410 as the trough of gold prices? The rate cuts continued right through 2002, with gold taking off on a very solid upward run in 2002 near the time of the last cut. How do we explain the fact that gold is rising and the FED rate isn't. Unless this is a harbinger of rates taking off very soon to catch up with POG, peak to peak and trough to trough concurrance doesn't seem very precise from a timing stand point.

slingshot

(12/22/2003; 16:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113941)

Midas Crusade

A few days had past and no word from Gandalf or Cougar except for the instructions to the carpenters to make haste in their efforts. They had left the camp and headed up the Epis to find a suitable crossing. A crossing for a second force, much quicker and unnoticed by those in Hammerton. The days were cool but the nights turned colder as Winter progressed. As the sun slowly set, it showed a golden splendor, then turning the sky into soft pastels as the remaining clouds dissapated. The drop in temperature signaled the coming of the stars. Gandalf and Cougar made camp and built a fire to keep them warm. They watched the embers rise up. And as they looked at the night sky, a shooting star came forth. Gandalf and Cougar pointed at it as its long ribbon crossed the sky. Yet as they pointed, a second and a third appeared. More and more filled the sky and their ribbons of light connected the stars.
Suddenly in the East, a single star began to pulse. Dim to bright and this went on for close to an hour. Then in an instant grew in size and its brillance could be seen near and far.
What day is this, Gandalf? asked Cougar.
Let me see, said Gandalf. Thinking for a short time and looking at the heavens, Gandalf replied. I believe it is early Christmas Morning.
Turning to each other.
Merry Christmas, Gandalf, said Cougar.
Merry Christmas, Cougar, Said Gandalf.

************************************************************
A Merry and Safe Christmas to all our young men and women in uniform, near and far.

Slingshot------------------------<>

Solomon Weaver

(12/22/2003; 17:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113942)

When to give you credit for the Fed Rates Indicator

Sir Agingfast

One small note in following.....

Please take some time and consider my comments further below on the wisdom of Greasham who noticed that "use and hiding (savings)" were hidden forms of premium that manifested when two specie that were officially "par" we not equally trusted.

I DO consider that watching the Fed Funds (and other short term global rates) over the coming decades might be a useful measure in determining the top in gold. I.e. your indicator may not be as good a "buy" indicator as it would be a "sell" indicator.

In specific, were the price of gold to rise so high, and the demand to own it (as non-interest bearing) to be so high, that the Fed and other central banks needed to offer a 10% shortterm rate to attract gold owners back into fiat currencies, then one might consider that the very large "spread" MIGHT be indicative of a gold top.

Furthermore, if I am not mistaken, I have heard on several occassions that a former Secretary of the Treasury (under President Clinton) actually published a treatise on the "inverse" relationship between interest rates and gold price. Now, we might say that the Fed is a policy leader, who uses its rate to attempt to force interest rates in a direction opposite to the market, and in that case, one might hypothesize that the behavior of the Fed in setting rates does correlate with the direction of the price of gold....but again, the question is which leads the other. If the current environment is any clue....gold leads the Fed.

. . . . . .

Sir Agingfast

Please do not take offense at my efforts to question a single one of the assumptions you use to make the bullish case in gold as a major "misunderstanding". I simply believe that this idea of yours may NOT be as related as you think, and if it were so, and I were able to convince even you of that, then you might no longer pass it on to others...as it is a deceptively simple idea, and we live in a world of small brains who will often take a small idea and make it into gospel.

Poor old Solomon

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 17:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113943)

All

When I obtained my Wharton MBA -- many, many decades ago -- an old professor of mine said to me, "Son, at this point in your life you probably think that most people understand economics and finance. But later, when you're aging fast, as I am, you'll realize that they don't."

He also said, "If you tell a man something he already knows, he'll be pleased. But if you tell him something he doesn't know, he definitely will not be pleased."

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 17:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113944)

Rate convergence

@ Agingfast

After reading Solomon Weaver's reply, I think I understand your point better, but please elucidate if I am still missing it. The convergence of peaks and troughs alone is significant as potential indicators, even if the rise and fall periods do not mirror each other well.

Is this the message?

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 17:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113945)

Waxing philosophical

Geeeez, I already know I'm dense and obstinate. I'm just trying to find the right questions to ask.

Solomon Weaver

(12/22/2003; 17:22:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113946)

A friendly debate ..... are we taking facts or using rhetoric?

Sir Agingfast

Very nice to hear the origin of your handle.

Your decades old MBA training also confirms my general view that you have deep knowledge in many things economic.

Now, it is interesting how easily these discussions here will begin to move towards a rhetorical viewpoint.

I have simply taken up the effort this afternoon to challenge one single observation of yours....and now, you use wise words of your Professor to imply that you are telling me something I do not know and therefore I will reject.

Well, I note that economists are required to study calculus (usually along with the physicists, chemists, and engineers, and biology students). But given the many varied opinions about what economic parameter really affects the other, I am highly suspicious of the simple observation that two things correlate as being proof that they affect eachother, and if they do, which one is considered to be the cause of the other. They like to use the dynamic numerical relationship between parameters (essentially the logic of calculus) but they have a much harder time at showing true cause and effect.

So once again, now that I fully understand that the source of my desire to question a point in your arguement is caused by the fact that I didn't know that point before, I wonder if you might go the extra mile for me and explain the "source" of this interesting correlation between the long term pattern in the Fed Funds rate and the price of Gold...and if you are able, please inform me of how I might be able to use this correlation as a buy or sell indicator for my gold holdings.

Poor old Solomon

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 17:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113947)

AF / POS.....

I haven't seen such spirited and engaging debate since the days of going round and round with Ari about silver. Rich, did you ever get Ari to see things your way?

Happy holidays to Gandalf, Rich, Ari, steady, Melting Pot, Black Blade, MK, Town Crier, Boilermaker, Agingfast, Golidlox, Socrates, misetich, Belgian and everyone who makes this the absolute best gold discussion forum available today!

PA

a nation of one

(12/22/2003; 17:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113948)

to Goldilox (12/22/03; 16:56:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 113940)

You say: "...How do we explain the fact that gold is
rising and the FED rate isn't."

Here's how:

Peaks and troughs are mental constructs employed for interpreting two-dimensional representations of events. Because of this their predictive power is a part of their interpretive nature. This means that in the hands of most people their meaning is at best ambiguous. When the FED lowered the interest rate, however, it was done partly as an incentive for people to move money out of interest bearing instruments and into equities. These are not mental constructs as such, but assessments of human motivations based on history and experience (although mental constructs may be used in interpreting their outcomes). Therefore, the ways in which interest rates influence the placement of money can be seen not as a function of a mental construct's interpretive nature, but, rather, as a true incentive motivating large numbers of people, because a substantial portion of them all think more or less the same thing, namely, that if bonds are paying low rates, maybe something else will be better, such as stocks for instance. Their action is not really based on knowledge but is merely the weighing of a risk. But it does cause people to move their money. When seen in this light, the interest rate has little direct relationship to the price of gold, except insofar as people who are moving money out of bonds put it into gold because of that. For this to happen, gold has to be attractive, and that means it needs to be moving up. I would be surprised if this were intentional. It may seem to be due to the exigency of circumstance and the intelligence of investors. But it makes even more sense to think of it as proof of the fact that those who seek to manage economic matters are actually incompetent to do so. Judging by means of peaks and troughs, on the other hand, are in some ways like throwing a cigar out the window and basing your investments on where it lands. There can be a considerable degree of accuracy in throwing a cigar out a window. But the main skill still rests in the ability to endow the outcome with meaning. This is a different from the ability to assess risk. For most people, throwing a cigar out a window does not tend to endure scrutiny the way some other means do. The reason the FED rate isn't going up is because, if it were, people would move their money out of stocks and into bonds, and therefore stock prices would fall. Since stocks are grotesquely overpriced, they would fall far and fast. Therefore the Interest rate better not go up. See?

R Powell

(12/22/2003; 18:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113949)

Price indicators...

I'd like to re-inforce a point Solomon made in (113935) his earlier post that may not have been emphasized enough. BTW, great post, Solomon! It was that some indicators that may indeed be synchronous (like perhaps the Fed fund rate and the POG or the volatility index and the DOW) at certain times, may not be at other times.

During the equity Bull of the mid to late 1990's many technical traders thought they had identified such relationships, back tested their theories and then announced that they had a money making system. The money was made by selling the system or, better yet, getting people to subscribe for instant updates from the market guru. Amazingly some of these systems actually worked but, in hindsight, we can say that any stock buy signal during the stock buying mania was correct. It was the correct call until the bull ended but most of these systems still called for buying even well after the bear appeared. Sometimes some indicators work during certain markets (whether bull or bear) and sometimes these same indicators are useless under different conditions. Could this not also be true with most POG movement indicators? In general there are some economic events which tend to support gold but even these can be influenced by other constantly changing factors. I am leary of ascribing too much credit to any one factor when there are so many others which many or may not also be supporting the POG. The amount of power or influence of each factor may not be constant. Right now, with the dollar declining and the Fed. rate unchanged for some time now, I'd suggest that the declining dollar is more powerful than the low rate. But, during that period when the Fed. was constantly cutting, perhaps the rate cuts were more influencial than the relative dollar strength. If a nuke goes off somewhere in the Middle East tomorrow, then, at that time, no one (nor the POG) will be focused on the rates or the currency.
The POG is not determined in a vacuum. Everything is in constant motion, no?

Market traders, beware of light holiday trading and mischievous traders playing in low volume markets!
Rich

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 18:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113950)

Solomon

After the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression (I was there) the Fed for many years concentrated on fighting deflation and eventually, as a result of its inflationary efforts, the fed funds rate rose (from lows of 1%) for 20 years (1961 to 1981), with the double digit inflation of the late 1970s finally forcing the Fed to raise the funds rate to the 20% area in 1981.

The steep rise in the funds rate to its peak in 1981 convinced investors that the Fed had finally gotten serious about fighting inflation, and when AG became Fed head his announcement that his goal was "zero inflation" added to that belief. It was agreed in the investment community that instead of fighting deflation the Fed was serious abut fighting inflation -- a view reinforced by the fact that instead of double digit inflation, investors in paper saw that they had been gifted with relatively low inflation (the misleading inflation numbers produced by govt. statisticians contributed to that belief). The 20-year reduction in the funds rate convinced investors that the "wise men" at the Fed "knew" that inflation had been vanquished forever. As a result, the POG and POS suffered during those years.

But the stock market crash a couple of years ago apparently convincd the Fed that efforts to achieve "zero inflation" had gone far enough, or perhaps too far -- that it was time, after the passage of another 20 years, to again reverse course and fight deflation. The inflationary implications of that decision, signaled by the enormous plunge in the funds rate, was the critical factor, IMO, in the bottoming of the POG and POS and the CRB a couple of years ago. And as long as GDP and employment fail to show convincing improvement (which could be a long time), that inflationary course of action will have to continue and the POG and POS and the prices of other "things" will continue to benefit.

R Powell

(12/22/2003; 18:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113951)

P. A.

You asked....

"I haven't seen such spirited and engaging debate since the days of going round and round with Ari about silver. Rich, did you ever get Ari to see things your way?"

I don't believe so but our discussions were not always about silver either. Actually, i do believe we at least forced everyone to activate brain cells during our discussions. I'll admit that I've changed some of my opinions as a result of talking with Aristotle (thanks Ari) (for instance, I now tend to think that currency and gold are not the same, interchangeable but not identical) but don't tell him that I now agree with some of his thoughts!

It's a treat to read the discussion and we've even managed to get Poor Old Solomon to join in! A little adrenoline sure enhances the thought power expended and then everyone benefits. Anyone who holds silver in such high regard as does Solomon is surely someone I'll listen to. :>) I just hope the egos involved are flexible enough to weather the storm. Lord knows I've been wrong enough times. I've learned much here and learned by participating here. Thanks...
Rich

Druid

(12/22/2003; 19:52:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113952)

a nation of one (12/22/03; 17:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113948)

"The reason the FED rate isn't going up is because, if it were, people would move their money out of stocks and into bonds, and therefore stock prices would fall. Since stocks are grotesquely overpriced, they would fall far and fast. Therefore the Interest rate better not go up. See?"

Druid: ANOO, I always enjoy your fine commentary. As I try to understand the complexities of the bond market, I must always differentiate between the classes of players involved and their possible objectives. Bond speculators and bond investors are different participants� altogether. Bond investors, generally speaking, are an extremely conservative group of people looking for a consistent and steady rate of return or yield, while bond speculators are at the opposite end of the investing spectrum looking for the quick "score." If there were an exodus out of stocks and into bonds, bond prices would be bid up and bond yields driven even lower.

21mabry

(12/22/2003; 20:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113953)

Bells

Silver bells and golden bells.Keeping time time time in a sort of Runic rhyme.To the moaning and the groaning of the bells.

Cavan Man

(12/22/2003; 20:20:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113954)

Dear agingfast

Joining the debate....CMYou appear in words here, an intelligent man. Perhaps your "wharton mba" belies your intelligence?

The issue of political economy or free markets is more complex than your rendition of complexity implies. While many THOUGHTS of yours' may ring true to the empirical intellect, there is yet the truth of the historical intervention in US equity and bond markets of government and government in conjunction with money center banks and their primary shareholders; all acting on behalf of their individual and collective interests. If the game is broken up in vehement dispute, the winnings might not leave the table let alone the room. Whither any appreciation of history my friend?

Cavan Man

(12/22/2003; 20:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113955)

Dear Sage

"All you must do is decide what to do with the time that is given to you."

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 20:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113956)

Cavan Man

I've merely offered the theory. I'm not trying to sell it and I don't if people accept it or reject it, so I have no need to defend it.

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 20:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113957)

Cavan Man

Make that "I don't care if people accept it or reject it."

21mabry

(12/22/2003; 20:57:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113958)

Agingfast

What is your opinion of an emerging Chinas role in global deflation of finished goods,and also its role in pushing commodity prices higher.21

Paper Avalanche

(12/22/2003; 21:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113959)

You might be a plant if.............

you post objections / rebuttals to all contrary posts 24/7.

To do so is indicative of multiple persons "manning the post."

If you notice anyone who may have done so, take note and take the message that they intend to convey with a grain of salt.

Sorry shills, you need to refine your methods to be less obvious.

Happy holidays!!!!!!!!!

PA

a nation of one

(12/22/2003; 21:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113960)

To Druid (12/22/03; 19:52:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113952)

The FED explains its actions in ways inconsistent with
what is true. It does this deliberately. Its most
notable ostensible function is as a tool being used in
ways that keep the US economy in sound condition. Its
larger actions, however, do not have this effect, but
instead contribute to, and bring about speculative bubbles
and their collapse. Its ability to influence where people
put their own money comes into play for political reasons.

a nation of one

(12/22/2003; 21:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113961)

Rest you merry, Gentlemen. (Ladies too.)

Good night, all. And happy Christmas.

steady

(12/22/2003; 21:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113962)

gold acquisition

he who hesitates is lost.
john wooden once told that to me. seriously!

misetich

(12/22/2003; 21:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113963)

Williams contends that Social Security recipients have been cheated by 28% due to what he calls "gross manipulation" of the inflation data by Clinton and Bush.

http://www.flash.net/~rhmjr/c0806.htmlSnip:

"Inflation remains a U.S. economic problem that is sensed and realized by most consumers," writes Williams, "yet inflation is not recognized fully by the government, which deliberately under-reports it. Understated inflation may have certain political advantages, but it also cheats people on a retirement fixed income...it distorts economic reporting...and it misleads the financial markets and the investing public."

He also wisely points out that warnings by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan of possible deflation (or what the Fed calls "negative inflation") appears to be a ploy aimed at justifying accelerated monetization (purchasing) of the federal debt by the U.S. central bank. In Congressional testimony on May 21, Greenspan reassured the Joint Economic Committee that he could fight deflation by buying government bonds of longer maturities and spiking growth of the money supply. "We do have the capability of moving out on the yield curve...expanding the monetary base," he explained.

Speaking of Greenspan, in his most recent testimony the Fed Chairman made the much quoted statement, "...the FOMC stands ready to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as it takes to achieve a return to satisfactory economic performance." That little piece of Orwellian double speak could be the subject of a running commentary in itself. But if you carefully parse the statement all Greenspan really said is that the Fed will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to achieve overall stability. "Satisfactory economic performance" is a relative term and doesn't necessarily mean the Fed is aiming for the high growth. What it means, I think, is that the Fed is completely satisfied with having a "trading range economy."
*************
Misetich

Seniors have/are being robbed blindly by the Feds manipulation of CPI index and PCE deflators

The Feds have engaged on alleged deceptive practices during the last 20 years at least to understate the rate of inflation

Central banks schemes to deceive the public, from 1987 through the introduction of "producers hedging" allowed the "symptoms and malinvestments to accumulate"

Gold has been used by the Feds as an indicator of price inflation - however through the numerous changes in the metodogy in which the Feds compute the CPI plus the "gold suppression schemes" allowed the stock bubble of the 90's to emerge

Day after day the Kudlows, Greenspan of the world reminded the financial world of the "new paradigm" the "new economy"

Fact is THEY mislead the whole US financial community - resulting the bubblemania

The current status REFLECTS the result of mismanagement by the Feds -

Eleven IR cuts haven't done the trick - trillions of new housing debt hasn't done the trick - billions of government spending hasn't done the trick

Certainly one can pose an easy solution such as Gold prices are going up due to the market expected re-ignition of price inflation, and low Feds rate

Low Feds rates represent the inability of the Feds to stem the tide of over 20 years of paper market bull collapse

Japan went through it the late 80's and still haven'r recovered

US economy has not recovered.

Gold prices appreciation in US $ terms are due to a number of reasons - primarily fuelled by INVESTMENT DEMAND in the lates quarter, the emergence of the Euro as a challenger to the US status of reserve currency and the cumulative maladjustments in the gold market -

and..Gold investors successfully spearheading the "dump the hedgers" such Barrick (Thanks to GATA)

ANOTHER warned way back that gold should have been taken down beyond the $280 level

As Jim St. Clair aptly puts it

Its Payback Time

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox

(12/22/2003; 21:42:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113964)

the FED "fighting" inflation and deflation

As these two are opposites, the simple concept is that the switch from favoring one over the other denotes a "bias" change, as it is called in the press. But it also suggests that the deliberate forcing of one to fight the other lends credence to theorists who believe that FED meddling may be causing wild swings rather than tempering them. Physics offers many examples of energy added to a system and causing more violent reactions than the original.

Many monetarists promote the idea that by "rescuing" the country with massive liquidity, Roosevelt prolonged the depression and rewarded some of those most guilty for causing it. Perhaps not unlike the smaller S&L crisis a few decades back where certain folks bought failed S&L assets for pennies on the dollar and then got the SLDIC to bail out their liabilities. A few "insiders" got very rich on the taxpayer bailout, and more deficits were created to cover it in the books.

Whether by bailout or by ramping up currency inflation, the same strategy seems to be in place - with a different bend in the tactic. Gold itself doesn't really interfere on an individual basis, but on a systemic basis, it kills those who "lend" gold ownership to dabble with derivatives, and can put the big hurt on them when it's time to pay the piper. Friends watch each other's backs, as do collegues, so the offending bullion banks will be assisted to exit gracefully by their banking bretheren when possible.

Is credit then the enemy? Not really, as all money is a form of credit. The dollar is suffering from abusive credit manipulation on a massive scale. The government has been so wildly successful running on deficit budgets, that state and local governments along with private enterprises and now individuals have adopted the same tactic, and we find ourselves with twin towers of deficit. They will eventually fall harder than the Manhattan towers, but that fall will also be manipulated for political gain by whomever at that moment has the power to do so. Why waste a good monetary implosion?

What did the anti-hero of "Swordfish" say? "Misdirection, Stanley - make them believe that what they think they saw is the only logical conclusion."

Tommy Franks, the "hero" of Iraq chapter 1, recently reminded us that the constitution would be the next real victim of ANY WMD event.

misetich

(12/22/2003; 21:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113965)

Ron Paul's Freedom Report

http://www.free-nefl.net/janfeb99tx.htmSnip:

A huge financial bubble distorts the world financial markets. This bubble has been developing for a long time but has gotten much larger in the last couple of years. Understanding this issue is critical to the economic security of all Americans that we in Congress strive to protect.
Credit expansion is the root cause of all financial bubbles. Fiat monetary systems inevitably cause unsustainable economic expansion that results in recession and/or depression. Recession must always result, with the degree and duration determined by government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy. If wages and prices are not allowed to adjust (as they do through the mechanism of recession), and the correction is thwarted by invigorated monetary expansion, new and sustained economic growth will be delayed or prevented.

Financial dislocations caused by central banks in various countries will differ one from another due to political perceptions, military considerations, and reserve currency status. The U.S.'s ability to inflate has been dramatically enhanced by other countries' willingness to absorb our inflated currency, our dollar being the reserve currency of the world. Foreign central banks now hold in reserve over $600 billion, an amount significantly greater than that held by our own Federal Reserve. Our economic and military power give us additional license to inflate our currency, thus delaying the inevitable correction inherent in a paper monetary system. But this not only prolongs the inevitable, it allows for a larger bubble to develop, further jeopardizing our future economy.
..................
From the time Greenspan made this statement in December 1996 until December 1998, the money supply soared. Over $1 trillion of new money (as measured by M3) was created by the Federal Reserve. Another monetary measurement, MZM (a new statistical gimmick that is a combination of M1 and M2), is currently increasing at a 20% rate. This generous dose of credit has sparked even more "irrational exuberance," which has taken the DOW to over 9000 for a 30% increase in just two years. (It is interesting to note that in 1998, when the foreign-registered corporation LTCM, with its massive $1 trillion speculation in the derivatives markets, was threatened by the market's demanding a logical correction to its own "exuberance," Greenspan and company quickly came to LTCM's rescue with an even greater acceleration of credit expansion.)
..............
Current government propaganda promotes the false notion that inflation is no longer a problem. Nothing could be further from the truth. The dangerous financial bubble is a result of the Federal Reserve's deliberate policy of inflation. The Fed's argument that there is no inflation, according to government-concocted CPI figures, is made to justify a continuing policy of monetary inflation, because they are terrified of the consequence of deflation.
The Federal Reserve may sincerely believe maintaining the status quo, preventing price inflation, and delaying deflation are possible, which is not true. The most astute money manager cannot balance inflation against deflation as long as there is continued credit expansion. The system inevitably collapses, as it finally did in Japan in the 1990s.

Even the lack of CPI inflation as reported by the Federal Reserve is suspect. A CPI of all consumer items measured by a private source shows an approximate 400% increase in prices since 1970. Most Americans realize their dollars are buying less each year and no chance exists for the purchasing power of the dollar to go up. Just because prices for TVs and computers may go down, the cost of medicine, food, stocks, and entertainment certainly can rise rapidly.
*****************
Misetich

A great article by Ron Paul on the causes of low Fed funds rate

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Agingfast

(12/22/2003; 22:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113966)

21mabry

See my LAST posts #113956 & 7.

Druid

(12/22/2003; 22:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113967)

a nation of one (12/22/03; 21:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 113960)

Agreed good Sir. You and your loved ones have a wonderful holiday.

Boilermaker

(12/23/2003; 05:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113968)

Great Wall Motors

http://www.gwm.com.cn/eng/html/06_Photos/index.asp
Pizz; Check this out. Opportunity for US franchises?

HONG KONG (AP)--Mainland Chinese carmaker Great Wall Automobile surged Monday in its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange but gave up some of its mammoth early gains to close 28 percent higher than its initial public offering price.

--------
I'll be your first customer for a "Great Wall Pickup". :)
Boilermaker

steady

(12/23/2003; 06:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113969)

Gold bull

on this cold winter moring gold again is signaling its warning.
sitting by the hearth thinking bout the gold bulls birth, 1,2, 3, 4, just rember to dance close to the door.

bubbles popping` pork sloping, dollar dropping, the gold rise not yet heart stopping.

in the real of cause and effect we have seen the causes for ecoism to flursh but what we are seeing is the efect of ecoism. see ecoism is the efect of the once fabled strong dollar poilcy.

ecoism effects are bubble bursting in harmonious rythms, causng nations, states,cities and clans to come to attention and here the golden music. to catch the rythm youhave to be attuned to the sounds of ecoism, as it makes its rounds across the planet like saint nick so listne for that next prick and a bubble bursting, causing u to be thirsting for more, so conceptualze, vizualize and lead theworld to the gold prize. one andall short or tall from the floor or wall keep youreye ont the golden ball. Guide it to mans freedom one mnd at a time!

misetich

(12/23/2003; 07:31:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113970)

A Cataclysm Coming This Way

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3635Snip:

An essay entitled "The Five Years 'Til Tragedy Rule" by Steve Sjuggerud ........................He goes on to explain, "In short, after a major stock market peak, there are five years until tragedy...five years until a dollar crisis - and soaring commodity prices."
..........................
He even relates it to historical parallels, which are usually eerie, and normally I would refrain from even mentioning so scary a subject, since I am such a high-class kind of dude, but he relates it to FDR..............But Mr. Sjuggerud says, instead, "FDR wanted to create inflation. It was a crazy idea. Never before had a country attacked its own currency for the purpose of creating inflation and rescuing debtors."
.....................
Mr. Sjuggerud continues, and drops that nice little pearl of wisdom in our laps, "By coincidence or not, each major stock market peak of the 20th Century was followed by a crash in the U.S. dollar five years later. People who kept their savings in dollars saw the purchasing power of their savings shrink substantially. Yet those who invested in commodities made fortunes." Ergo, the Five Years 'Til Tragedy Rule.
..........................
*************
Misetich

Interesting....5 years from a market top to a dollar crisis.

Most anti-gold factions continuously make reference to the the 20 year gold bear market citing the peak of $800+ and going downhill ever since

Most of this anti-gold - thus pro bull fiat have not really experienced a bear market in equities, a real dollar crisis,

Astute investors realize, know CYCLES and trends. Central bankers are calluding in currency management (according to S. Roach of Morgan Stanley)

here's ANOTHER snip from the same article on Roach's comments

Quote

"The authorities have colluded in currency management in a period of unprecedented external imbalances."

And why would they need to, as he says, collude? Why did he pick the word "collude" instead of, umm, "cooperate?" Because what they are doing is, in the words of an erstwhile vendor of electronic appliances, INSAAAAANNNNNNE! And therefore probably illegal. And if not strictly illegal, then immoral, unethical, and probably a lot more similar adjectives that signify "something bad," and anyway the whole point is that competent, honest governments do not do these kinds of things. That is why they now "collude." And by which I screech, with a strange kind of circular logic, that the colluding governments are thus proved incompetent and dishonest.

end of quote

This young GOLD BULL is still in its formative stages. With global finances, and the engine (US) smack in the middle of it in as Roach puts it "period of unprecedented external imbalances"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steady

(12/23/2003; 07:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113971)

they are back

ever notice what hapens to the pog when there are digits in the hundredths place vaue? they dont appear very often but they are back today lets see what happens, alot of times when they apear they move in .05 incramnets. kinda ntersting to see somethong there besides a zero.

misetich

(12/23/2003; 08:04:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113972)

Spat between Bush and Blair

http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/news/content_objectid=13746358_method=full_siteid=106694_headline=-BUSH-AND-BLAIR--THE-BIG-FALL-OUT-name_page.htmlSnip:

TONY Blair and George Bush's love-in has collapsed over the rebuilding of Iraq.

The two leaders have fallen out over plans for the reconstruction of the country and the heavy-handed action of American troops against the civilian population.

And the rift has been deepened by a Washington ban on a proposed morale-boosting visit by the PM to British troops in Iraq during the Christmas holiday.

According to diplomats, relations between the allies have gone into "deep freeze" since the capture of Saddam Hussein last weekend.
.................

TONY Blair and George Bush's love-in has collapsed over the rebuilding of Iraq.

The two leaders have fallen out over plans for the reconstruction of the country and the heavy-handed action of American troops against the civilian population.

And the rift has been deepened by a Washington ban on a proposed morale-boosting visit by the PM to British troops in Iraq during the Christmas holiday.

According to diplomats, relations between the allies have gone into "deep freeze" since the capture of Saddam Hussein last weekend.

FALL-OUT: Blair and Bush

President Bush was incensed that Mr Blair stole Washington's thunder by being the first Western leader to confirm that the former dictator had been arrested by US troops.

Downing Street rushed out Mr Blair's announcement before he had spoken to the American leader early last Sunday, when Mr Bush - six hours behind London - was still in bed.

Whitehall insiders confirmed that Mr Blair's decision was partly out of anger over a US veto on his proposed visit to British troops in Iraq during the Christmas holiday.

Presidential advisers in Washington wanted Mr Bush to be the sole leader to make a Christmas visit to troops in Baghdad and urged Downing Street to postpone any visit.

The US refused to co-operate on security arrangements for a Christmas visit by Mr Blair, who is going to spend the festive season with his family in the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheikh.

Mr Blair and Mr Bush have had at least three phone conversations during the past seven days which Whitehall officials described as "increasingly terse".

A Downing Street insider said: "Relations between the two are at the lowest ebb since they first met.

"The PM is not happy at having to deal with Britain's European partners who have been left out of the rebuilding contracts. Of course they are still talking - but the diplomatic temperature is in the deep freeze."
*************
Misetich

A little chill - between "friends" - Tony better get used to it - the US likes to call the shots at all times -

England cannot afford to be left out of Europe - the American allegiance is not proving to their bests interests as they're being left out in the cold from the leadership role

Could this be the beginning of Blair's "reconciliation" with France and Germany?

Lets stay tuned

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich

(12/23/2003; 08:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113973)

Spat between Bush and Blair

misetich

(12/23/2003; 08:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113974)

Spat between Bush and Blair

Ten Bears

(12/23/2003; 08:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113975)

More on "Profile of a Certain Poster"

@Great Albino Bat and others

"Mr. X has a high regard for his own opinions, and a proportionately low regard for the opinions of the rest of us humans who "have had to use our heads because we didn't have the benefit of getting an education"

Survivor:

We are all experts at something. I can become very impatient when others don't seem to listen or try to understand my own area of expertise (which is *not* economics, obviously).

The members of this round table have a lot at stake in the area of economics and the ownership of gold. As such, passion can run high and words get posted in haste.

Please folks - show respect for each other's knowledge, and tolerance for the way others use language. Anytime a knight or lady loses patience and leaves the forum, we all become a little poorer.

Thanks, and great holiday to all . . .
-Survivor

CoBra(too)

(12/23/2003; 15:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114014)

Perplexity!

That's probably the word shaking me - at least for a while out of my sabbatical!
I've been perplexed by the US economic schools, be it Harvard, Yale, or even Wharton to allow generations to be totally misled by the fellows (read followers) of a John Maynard Keynes. The early socialists and communists a la Karl Marx, Victor Adler, Lenin and consorts learned a lot from this guy's easy fix.

Governments strive on re-learning the lesson ... and that's what's happening ... even before your aging eyes. Unfortunately, it's now totally accepted - deficit spending your way out of any calamity is the way to go.

The only question remaining may come a little later - quo vadis - where(to) do we go?

Good question!

Easily answered too - as you can't borrow(print)/spend your way to prosperity - we'll do it anyway - as long as the rest of the globe believes in the US dollar seignorage.

And that's the issue - and it's ... being seriously debated ...

The roadblocks are now easily determined by the market and the endgame is a given. Repo's or not, that's only a side show in my book.

A very esteemed elder friend of mine on Wall Street- and a summa cum laude Harvard graduate - once offered his opinion on these economic laureates - as Rudi "what's his name" - Dornbusch - has passed away and will, of course not be able to dumb down any more future generations. At least not much more than he already has!

Though, that may be beside the point, as generations of followers of Keynesian, id est socialistic economic policies have taken over the government and all respective agencies, it may be moot to argue.

The only problem is the l.t. effect. And according to Austrian economists - as I've thought some of them were teaching at your time at Wharton - I - of course, being an Austrian, though not an economist - would think you must have skipped some of the more important lessons.

Further discussions also seem moot, so just let me wish you
a great holiday season and leave the perplexity for the young ones to sort out ... cb2

misetich

(12/23/2003; 16:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114015)

"Defining 'Inflation'" -

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.htmlSnip:

Here is a quote from a very fine book (now sadly out of print) called "Understanding The Dollar Crisis". The book is a compendium of a series of lectures on economics and money given by Mises student, Percy L. Greaves Jr. in June 1969. Please note the title of the book and the date of the lectures. A little over two years later, that Dollar Crisis was "resolved" by the simple expedient of cutting the last official tie between the Dollar and Gold.

"Defining 'Inflation'"

"In all older books, those written fifty or more years ago, inflation was always treated as an increase in the quantity of money. Almost everyone knows who increases the quantity of money. However, those who increase the quantity of money do not want the public to know who is responsible for inflation, which everyone admits is bad. So those in high places, and their sycophants, have twisted the definition of inflation around to one of its consequences - higher prices."

Mr Greaves made this statement 34 years ago in 1969. We are now nearing the end of 2003. It has now been nearly 85 years, or more than three generations, since inflation has been treated as an increase in the quantity of money. Hence the ever accelerating and now astronomic explosion in the increase of money over those same 85 years. How else could the official debt of the US government have gone from just over $US 18 Billion to just under $US 7000 Billion over that period? In 85 years, the population of the US has increased by 200 percent. Government debt has increased by 38789 percent. 85 years is a respectable but quite achievable lifetime. My wife's mother is 94 - and still going strong.
................
The "trigger point" for Gold? It will come when the present illusion as described above can no longer be maintained. The Japanese cannot maintain their ridiculous level of intervention much longer. In the absence of Japan in the currency markets, the US authorities will have to choose between defending their currency - with MUCH higher interest rates - or doing nothing and watching it collapse.
***************

Misetich

The "planting of defining inflation" is a trick used by the Feds and it wouldn't surprise to find that they will go to all lengths to disinform the public, even in a Gold Forum

With "enhanced productivity miracle" in printing presses Central Bankers will once again be successful and restore "investor confidence" and re-ignite inflation (tongue in cheek)

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Great Albino Bat

(12/23/2003; 16:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114016)

OK. I stand corrected.

Magister Aurelius

(12/23/2003; 16:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114017)

Japanese intervention meets Godzilla

A guest commentary on a sagely bearish site has some interesting news from the land of the Rising Sun, sushi and Godzilla. The Bank of Japan has just authorized the amount available for intervention in currency markets to increase to Y140,000 billion. That's $1.4 trillion in US coin... per year starting in April '04. No election year crash... Godzilla's gonna play at Atlas for the US economy.

Truthcaster

(12/23/2003; 16:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114018)

Mad cow disease in the US

This going to be a huge story in the next few days.
This could be death for the US dollar and the cattle
market as this story unfolds. Japan will stop buying
all meats along with many other countrys this is going
to hit hard the farmers and cattle ranchers..

Dollar Bill

(12/23/2003; 16:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114019)

*>*

Sir GAB, whew, guess I'm not x after all ! ;)

Dollar Bill

(12/23/2003; 16:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114020)

*>*

Egad, as Master Aurelius has clued us in.....The Japanese intervention plans are important news to us.
From the Financial Times
"Let's put 140,000 billion Yen ($1.3 trillion) in a U.S. perspective. In round numbers it is about equal to next year's Federal budget deficit, next year's state budget deficits (all 50 states), and next year's current account deficit, combined -- with enough left over for the pension plans of every hard-pressed steel and automobile manufacturer in the country.

In practical terms, intervention at anything approaching this level means that the dollar / Yen exchange rate and the long-term Treasury bond rate will be whatever the MOF wants them to be. Assuming the MOF locks in the exchange rate and the bond rates at about current levels, it also means that the U.S. Presidential election next November was decided last week in Tokyo. As long as Japan is willing to monetize unlimited American profligacy next year, there is no possibility that the U.S. economy will run out of steam before the election. Even with China cutting back on domestic credit and apparently cutting back on its acquisition of dollar-denominated reserve assets, it won't make a difference. Alan Greenspan can sit on his hands for all that it matters to Godzilla. When the largest creditor in the world with the largest current account surplus in the world calls the tune, you dance.

Of course, the MOF doesn't have to use the whole 140,000 billion Yen to get its message across. The mere potential of intervention at that level has to freeze the trigger of any mini-master considering selling the dollar against the Yen. The MOF has already spent (or, more correctly, directed the Bank of Japan to spend) something in the neighborhood of twenty-thousand billion Yen this year in an effort to slow the decline of the dollar against the Yen. What's another hundred-thousand billion Yen among friends?

What should a trader do? A few things are obvious. First, if Japan is determined to debase the Yen against the rapidly debasing dollar, then you have to consider the Euro, the GBP, and the Swiss Franc. Those currencies, as well as the commodity currencies (C$, A$, NZ$), may appear expensive but if Japan floods the world with Yen to support the U.S. dollar, there isn't any alternative. Second, commodities, especially industrial commodities, will extend their bull run. Look for OPEC to either maintain oil prices well above the official dollar range (to offset the weak dollar) or quietly switch to some form of market-basket pricing based on the dollar, Euro, and Yen. While this will cause well-deserved pain for the U.S. it will not lead to anything resembling a prudent energy policy. Not as long as Japan is lending us the money to pay the bills. Third, inflation-protected assets, such as Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities (TIPS), will eventually do well. We all know that the long-run implications of massive Japanese exchange rate intervention and U.S. Fed policy are highly inflationary (remember Fed Governor Bernanke and his printing press?) but the United States as a nation isn't going anywhere. The bills will be paid, albeit after our elected officials inflate away as much of them as they can. Inflation protection doesn't seem necessary now but it will be necessary not too far in the future.
A few things are less obvious. First, gold prices are soaring but only when expressed in dollars. Express gold in terms of the Euro or Swiss Franc and the performance looks a lot more pedestrian. Second, real estate bubbles are brewing in large sections of numerous countries, including the U.S., China, Spain, Australia, and England. But real estate is local and it is illiquid. A global inflationary event is not the same as local knowledge, and liquidity in a topping market dries up real fast. The greater fool theory is about to be proven once again in many bubbling and topping markets."

Goldilox

(12/23/2003; 16:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114021)

copper penny metal value

@ PA

Are copper pounds measured in Troy (14/lb) ounces or Av (sp) ounces (16/lb)? I thought only PMs were measured in Troy.

If 16 oz/lb your $1.54/lb break even price (1.54*(14/16)) becomes $1.3475, not far from the latest high.

Someone more familiar with copper scrap business could probably clarify this for us.

Mr Gresham

(12/23/2003; 16:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114022)

Forgot to mention

along with all of the below, I especially appreciate when people of my father's generation are willing to stick around with us, and put their thoughts in.

The most intense learning I'm going through now is about the effect of time's passage on me, and how to set my sights on the future outcomes. Improving my attitudes, and health, and views on wealth.

A lot of the truths revealing themselves about gold and economics have to do with taking care of ourselves (and family) as we get older, and some things are JUST NOT UNDERSTANDABLE from a younger point of view. Different life missions at different stages in life.

I didn't listen to you guys very well 30 years ago, and I'm trying like hell now to make up for it. (Plus I'm sure you have a lot more to say now, and more confidence in it.) All ears.

otish mountain

(12/23/2003; 17:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114023)

Magister Aurelius

Do you have a source for these numbers. I have a hard time believing them. If true its amazing.

Boilermaker

(12/23/2003; 17:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114024)

Paul Volcker vs. Alan Greenspan

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/paul_volker1.htmlSnip;
"Volcker commenced an attack on the money supply as soon as he took control. He began to set a target for the growth of money, in the hopes that demand for credit would begin to dry up. The federal funds rate was increased in the hope that banks would eventually cut back on their loan lending. If it became difficult to find new capital, company's expansion plans would be put on hold.

Then on October 6, Volcker acted even more forcefully. Holding a rare Saturday night news conference, he unleashed his own version of the "Saturday Night Massacre." Pointing to the recent economic releases, Volcker said, "Business data has been good and better than expected. Inflation data has been bad and perhaps worse than expected."

The Chairman announced that the discount rate was being increased a full percentage point to a record 12%. "We consider that (this) action will effectively reinforce actions taken earlier to deal with the inflationary environment."

But Volcker wasn't just looking to slow inflation, he was seeking to smash it! It was just the start. And the Carter administration was none too pleased. And neither were the financial markets

comment;
The first real crisis for the US$ in recent times occurred in the late 70's after Nixon had cut the link with gold. Jimmy Carter had the good foresight (or dumb luck) to find Paul Volker as FED Chairman. Go to this link for a brief history of what PV did to save the dollar and revitalize the economy. He was not the handmaiden to the politicians or the bankers. Alan Greenspan is not a Paul Volker. The FED's actions today are diametrically opposite those needed to salvage the currency and the economy. Anyone using Alan Greenspan and his FED policies for financial guidance is misguided.

Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/23/2003; 17:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114025)

U.S. companies quietly moving more jobs overseas

snippit:

December 23, 2003 17:29:53 (ET)

By David Zielenziger

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. corporations are picking up the pace in shifting well-paid technology jobs to India, China and other low-cost centers, but they are keeping quiet for fear of a backlash, industry professionals said.

Morgan Stanley estimates the number of U.S. jobs outsourced to India will double to about 150,000 in the next three years. Analysts predict as many as two million U.S. white-collar jobs such as programmers, software engineers and applications designers will shift to low cost centers by 2014.

But the biggest companies looking to "offshoring" to cut costs, such as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT,Trade), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM,Trade) and AT&T Wireless (AWE,Trade), are reluctant to attract attention for political reasons, observers said this week.

"The problem is that companies aren't sure if it's politically correct to talk about it," said Jack Trout, a principal of Trout & Partners, a marketing and strategy firm. "Nobody has come up with a way to spin it in a positive way."

Goldilox:

So NOW they're worried about putting a "positive spin" on moving white collar jobs overseas. I guess "productivity increases" just isn't gonna cut the mustard. . . dem bones, dem bones

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 17:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114026)

@ Goldilox - weights and measures

Greetings Goldi:

I believe that I could have simply converted from grams to pounds without first converting to troy ounces (I realized this after my calculation). I would imagine that the unit of measure for the copper contracts is the standard US pound where 16 ounces equals a pound. I invite any and all critiques of my calc given that one pre-1982 penny weighs 3.11 grams and is composed of 95% copper. I would rather know the answer to my original question than assume to be correct if I am, in fact, missing something in my conversion.

In any event, it is apparent that Gresham's law may come into play with respect to pennies (of all things) should the price of copper continue to increase another 30-50%.

Take care and happy holidays to you and yours.

PAPER AVALANCHE

Goldilox

(12/23/2003; 17:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114027)

Protectionism

Found this at the neighbor's, so no hyperlink, but it's fun reading - pun intended, I'm sure. Full text can be linked from www.jsmineset.com.

snippit:

"The Americans are in a box. Savings rates are near zero as a result of record household borrowing and a huge federal deficit. They can ill-afford to finance their own deficit. Foreign investors currently own at least half of the US Treasury and agency bonds. The Bush Administration is playing politics with the dollar and the recent politicized tariffs on bras are an indication of the Administration's desperation for votes and could cause a "tit for tat" retaliation. After all, the last American-made bra was made over twenty years ago, so just whom are the "Bushies" supposed to be protecting?"

Goldilox:

I would assume the "protected" bras come from some other asian producer, as the US textile industry left sometime after the civil war. By the way, just what is "tat"?

Goldilox

(12/23/2003; 17:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114028)

Coin recycling

@ PA

I posted an interesting artcle about a week ago that reported China buying up obsolete european nickel coins from their gubmint storage. It seems the French were benefiting the most, as the Germans had already sold most of theirs to wholesale smelters.

It's a lot more useful recycling than we will get from paper assets.

melda laure

(12/23/2003; 17:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114029)

Twas the night before meltup and all through the bank

the dollars were burning, and my how they stank!Lord Kosares, might I beg some bandwidth for a tall tale? It is also a short one, even if half baked. I have purposely ommitted the ending, though I suspect that we all can suppose our own. Indeed the ending we will know soon enough.

merry christmas all, alye i vinya laurea loa!

Henry Snow stood in the doorway. xxxxxxxxx, the president's secretary was on the phone, she lifted the voice tube from her headset and motioned him to enter whispering, "He'll be here in just a minuite." As he sat on the couch he tried to focus, so many thoughts that he forcefully pushed aside, Warren Buffet's comment that derivatives were kind of like purgatory, "easy in but not easy out- like a lobster trap". In his mind the words of an old tale echoed. "Now begins the conflict of our time, long forseen." He roused himself. "Now what brought that? I've got to get more exercise," he thought. "Focus Henry, Focus!" Yet his mind wandered. Outside the window, snow was falling, the normal sounds in the building and from outside were even more muted than usual. He found himself gazing at the portrait of the first republican president hanging on the wall. It was something reminiscent of the portrait on the 5 dollar bill, yet somehow it was more disturbed. "Is that new?" he thought? The face seemed more drawn, and there was even a bit of a moustache, the beard unkempt and shaggy. As he gazed at the face he started, the left eye showed the distinct darkness of a black eye, perhaps some days healed. The heat duct rumbled to life behind him, with a start the treasury secretary woke up. He was in his bedroom. "I've got to stop drinking so much coffee" he thought. He gazed at the portrait on the wall opposite the foot of his bed. An odd light from the street lamp across the street cast an odd glow resting upon the figure, though as he looked, it was not of Lincoln but of a different figure. It seemed to be resting upon the dresser, one leg crossed over the other, perhaps as though it were a small child sitting there gazing at the man and his wife in their bed."

"I'm dreaming" Henry thought. A voice said. "You are always dreaming, even when you are awake. Indeed you have been asleep far too long. Many years has it been since you walked the path of dreams with your eyes open." Henry found himself drifting in a fog of sleepiness. The figure seemed to solidify. Perhaps of thing of some forgotten race of men, it could not have been more than perhaps 16 or 18 years old, yet the face spoke of great years unless it were a face of some alien race of divine blood. It's long hair fell loosely on its shoulders. It stood up and came quickly to him and grasped him by the shoulders. He looked up at the shining being and recognised him and his heart leaped for joy within him. It was strangely taller than he, and he realized now that he was no longer secretary of the US Treasury, or rather that he was not yet Secretary of the Treasury, he was only six, and standing there in his pajamas looking up at his old friend.
"Long has it been since you walked the path of dreams awake, longer still since you have seen the light of heaven or walked in joy of the lands of the sun." Henry smiled with remembrance. "You DO remember then?" said the other looking down at him. "And do you remember now your promise?" Henry looked down at his feet with some sadness.
"I remember" he said, hearing his small child's voice, and then he began to recite "and... and I will not fail to reject the shadow when it come." He gazed at the figure sleeping in the bed. He felt himself older now, perhaps about age 16 or so, as old as the timeless figure standing beside him. He looked back at him, now on level with his gaze, with a lump of fear in his heart.
"Quickly now!" the shining being said, "Quick, before the vision fades, in this time only can I call you to remember the task to which you pledged yourself in the land of the sun before you walked in the dark lands where you must dream now. You have work to do, the time of darkness approaches!"
"But-.. " he protested, now with the heart of youth, "It is not so easy."
"Of course not! Did you promise then or not? Is thine heart made of flesh and blood or is it of water?"
He looked down at the figure. Henry was now his own age, and the shining figure was of shorter stature than he. He looked down at the sleeping form of himself. The shining figure let go his hand and turned, winking at him.
"Remember..."

Henry woke with a start, he was sweating all over. He looked around the room, and leaning back into the pillow he choked back a sob and cursed the world of men and its evil for it broke his heart. And then he chuckled to himself "what a nightmare!" A thought echoed in his mind, he focused, reaching for it, a word passed the ear of his mind, "beloved of truth" he thought. A voice spoke in the back of his head, as though it might be himself only 50 years before. "Melda Laure, calad a mardello" and other words he did not understand. He exhaled a long breath. "This world is not as simple as that! What you ask is impossible. Bah, what am I saying? I've got to get to sleep."
Outside, the paper delivery truck was parked in the yard with the engine idling, it must be about 3AM he thought. The headlights shone on the portrait of Lincoln fully now. and he saw with some sense of bemusement that the table lamp cast a shadow. The face seemed to be more shaggy, more bearded, and the left eye socket DID seem to have a shiner on. There was no sound any longer from the big diesel truck in the street. The picture frame slowly lifted from the wall and turned slightly horizontal as the head of Lincon rose from out of the canvas. Two hands grasped the frame and lowered it to the floor as though a man were extricating himself from a canvas body bag.

They were standing in the executive office. The old president and the modern treasury secretary.
"Mister President?"
"I cannot sleep, Henry."
"Mister President?"
"I worry too much about The Union."
"The Union is fine, sir. The confederacy was defeated over a hundred years ago." The figure of Lincon turned, it's palms planted squarely on the table. It's eyes were missing instead there were two holes of lightless black. "...You won sir" Henry added.
"I am cursed, Henry. I cannot rest. I have not had peace since 1913."
"Sir? You were walking in glory long before that."
"No peace until there is justice, no rest until the curse is lifted!" The voice began to growl, "I feel the burden, a burden of a debt I can't pay- the accursed path I started us on."
"Sir you only did what free men always have to do to remain-"
"Don't you see it?" he said with tears streaming out of the holes of nothing, "It was my fault! A curse I have laid upon this nation, and it was my doing- the Chief Justice was right-" As he continued to screem his dead and rotten hands reached out and grabbed the treasury secretary by the shoulders and began to squeeze, "My greenbacks have cursed this nation. Cursed in war and cursed in peace and it has damned the whole world, Henry! It's the money! Henry, it's the g-- damn money!"
The treasury secretary took a step back, and the hands broke off at the wrist and clung to his pajamas. Henry stumbled on the carpet and fell into the sofa. The figure of Lincoln stood before him glaring, pointing at him with its handless arm.
"Tell Him!" the figure growled, "tell Him I bring a message and a warning. A warning from Wilson, from Roosevelt, from Nixon and that pompous little frenchman DeGaulle or whatever. No peace! No peace on earth until there is justice, no rest until the curse is lifted!" The figure meanced him, it walked right through the table and tried to grab him. Henry felt himself sinking into the floor, the sofa felt like sticky mud, and the room grew hazy and dark. The figure of Lincoln was now only a ragged mass of dark waving rags which the treasury secretary tried vainly to beat off. But the office the floor and the old president were gone.

misetich

(12/23/2003; 18:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114030)

Currencies: JPY - Diminishing Returns on MoF Interventions -Stephen L. Jen (London)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor2Snip:

However, over time, massive interventions could still fail if Japan's recovery is sustained. We lay out a portfolio-based argument:

1. Japan has a huge amount of foreign assets.

As a result of massive cumulative trade surpluses, Japan now holds a huge amount of foreign assets.

2. This is not a preferred portfolio mix, from Japan's perspective.

Japan has a strong �home bias� for investment, which suggests that the large GFA and NFA positions in Japan may no longer be preferred.

3. The idea of a �negative risk premium.�

The concept of �negative risk premium� is essentially the point that, because of the aversion to further increases in Japan's foreign asset position, foreign interest rates will need to be considerably higher than those in Japan to entice Japanese investors to send more of their capital overseas. Japan's interest rates have been persistently below those of most foreign countries
..............

5. Massive MoF interventions in USD/JPY are not consistent with the whole picture.

As the MoF resists the USD correction through intervention, it buys US Treasuries and helps keep interest rates in the US lower then they would otherwise be. In addition, the more Japan recovers, the more Japanese interest rates tend to drift higher. But, as a result, the compressed yield differentials may end up being too small to offset the combined effects of expected JPY appreciation and the negative risk premium. Theory suggests that this should lead to less private capital heading overseas. In turn, the Japanese long bond yield may also be kept artificially low as private capital is trapped in Japan. In other words, the combination of (1) a declining USD, (2) a recovering Japan, and (3) intervention that is not consistent and not sustainable, continued official interventions would be offset by a reduction in private capital outflows. This is one key structural reason why I believe continued massive intervention will fail eventually.

Massive interventions are likely in 2004.

The structural USD correction is not yet complete. What the currency world needs, however, is a better balance between EUR and JPY and between the majors and the minors, during this structural USD correction. If we assume that the JPY rises by another 10%, on par with the expected movement in the major USD index, USD/JPY would be below 100. (This is a conservative assumption as I am not assuming any normalisation between EUR and JPY.) The MoF will need to be prepared to intervene massively in 2004 to avoid 100 being broken. But the amount of intervention necessary will have a meaningful effect on US interest rates, just as Japan continues to recover. This will, as explained above, significantly discourage private capital outflows and raise the risk that such interventions may fail.

Bottom line.

The more the MoF intervenes, the more the Japanese private sector will hold back on their foreign investment, making the interventions themselves an exercise with diminishing returns. Heavy intervention in 2004 will be necessary to hold USD/JPY above 100, but risks to USD/JPY will still be biased to the downside of 100.
************
Misetich

ANOTHER analysis on the famed and hoped for Japanese intervention

Much has been said on their "support" for the US $ to avoid a strengthening yen. Yet if 2003 is any indication it is doomed for failure no matter how massive the "government open spigot announced"

Jawboning just doesn't cut - The economic imbalances are such that it does not allow CB's a free reign - and establish "currency market rates" The market does!

and the more the CB's react the more voltures they attract as they know it can't go on forever

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

melda laure

(12/23/2003; 18:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114031)

Pennies.

Paper Avalanche. That's what I've been doing. Personally I wouldn't be bothered for more than $1 per pound profit.

As hyperinflation is about to keep copper permanently above the price of the penny all coins may soon be going bye bye. What disgusts me is that we're about to be treated to a living example of gresham's law, only this time with copper instead of debased silver or underweight gold. How disgraceful! (I shouldn't wonder, however, if the banks have already beat you to the punch)

sorry bout the format, next time I'll put instead.

Boilermaker

(12/23/2003; 18:09:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114032)

Paul Volker - Part 2

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/paul_volker2.htmlsnip;
Into early 1980 interest rates across the board continued to rise and the economy tipped into recession (a mild one but an important one as far as the presidential election of 1980 was concerned). By the end of the first quarter, the long bond was yielding 12.3%. Treasury Bills were to peak that year in the second quarter, 15.6%. The inflation rate for the first quarter of 1980, as measured by the CPI was 14.6%.

Awful news. But what we didn't know at the time, as is often the case during events such as these, was that the back of inflation had been broken. By the middle of 1981, it was running at a 9.7% clip and for the year it was below 9%. Volcker was winning.

But the times were tough on the chairman. Henry Kaufman went to visit him in 1980 and he observed that construction bricks were filling an outer office, yet no renovation appeared to be taking place. It turns out that the Brick Layers Union had sent them over, along with a note saying that they were no longer needed. A rather vicious reminder of the troubled economic environment.

comment;
PV vs. AG. No contest. Today's FED is a scam.

Boilermaker

Smeagol

(12/23/2003; 19:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114033)

Copperless, nickeless coins...almosst

Smeagol predicts that within a few years see ALL our coins made as copper- or nickel-plated zinc tokens, like the posst-1982 pennies... looking the ssame to keep up appearances... but their LIGHTNESS, and even CHEAPER ssound they make will give them away.

S.

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 19:04:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114034)

Boilermaker

Paul Volcker? Let me think a minute. Oh, yeah, I remember him - an internet search identifies him as the former North American Chairman of the Trilateral Commission. You might not have been around at the time but the rap against the Volcker Fed was that its chosen policy of gradualism (very gradually increasing the fed funds rate) unnecessarily delayed the battle against inflation. Without attempting to defend the Greenspan Fed, its action in dropping the funds rate in 2001 was certainly not a policy of gradualism that unnecessarily delayed the battle against deflation.

Clink!

(12/23/2003; 20:02:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114035)

What happens when you give an engineer tools ?

(Think sorcerer's apprentice)

Inspired by Sir Paper Avalanche's attempts at prophecy, and in full agreement with Mr Gresham concerning brawling at the Forum, I got to think about one of our departed, Sir Sector. I am NOT, repeat NOT going to get into the subject of his about which there has been much written these last few days, nor am I going to talk about the subject which caused him to leave (although I would note that he was right, but his timing was off (sound familiar, PA ?!)).

I was fooling around at Bigcharts while killing some time today (yeah, nerd !) and started to play around with some charts on the Dow for this year. It just looks too 'regular' to be 'natural'. So I downloaded the closing prices from the beginning of February until now, and stuck them into Minitab (a statistical analysis program). I did a linear regression (that is finding the best straight line through all the points) and then a R-squared analysis (an indicator of deviation from the best straight line) to get a value of 93.6%. That means that there is precious little deviation. For the heck of it, I did a quadratic regression and came up with a nifty little equation which gave an R-squared of 95.2%. That may not mean much to you, but it is extraordinary considering we are talking about a market fitting a smooth curve for OVER 10 MONTHS ! And particularly in light of all the goings-on during this time.

Where do we go from here ? Well, the curve is rising but curving over to the right. From the curve's equation, this indicates a peak of around 10250 in approx 110 trading day's time - May timeframe. It is interesting to note that the curve is so flat that if it continues it could still be at around these levels in 11 months time, which would be hunky-dory for the election. Also, the current Dow level is above the curve's peak � in fact the last 8 trading days have been a conspicuous departure from the curve, with only one other departure this big occurring in mid-June. This lasted seven days and ended with a sudden drop back to the curve.

So what does this all mean ? Well I'm darned if I know, I don't do predictions, just the graphs. But they don't look �natural� to me - and I've got the formula to prove it ......

C!

cyberbat

(12/23/2003; 20:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114036)

The Jobless Recovery

Chattanooga Times Free-Press

cyberbat

(12/23/2003; 20:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114037)

Jobless Recovery

Chattanooga Times Free-Press -- "The number of Tennessee households receiving federally subsidized food stamps has increased nearly 40% in the past 2 years, according to data released Monday by the States's Dept. of human services." Michelle Mowery Johnson says " We're hearing all these things about the economy getting better, but jobs aren't being created in Tennessee". Does this sound like your state. Just remember this. If you're on food stamps you aint' buying !!

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 20:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114038)

Boilermaker

And since you've got me started, you've got to understand that in the 1970s when demand periodically exceeded supply in the US economy and pushed prices higher, the standard "cure" was demand management - attack "excess demand" by raising interest rates. In the Carter years, small was beautiful. The size of the pie was considered limited, so demands for pie had to be rolled back. Reagan's approach, of course, was just the opposite - increase the size of the pie through policies that would encourage the supply side rather than relying on the same old, dreary policies aimed at discouraging the demand side.

Eventually, however, the US supply side began to be supplemented, dramatically and alarmingly, by foreign supply - increasingly large imports of very low-priced foreign goods - which raised fears in many quarters (especially the guys at Comstock and probably the guys at the Fed) that price-deflation had become the greatest risk.

In my opinion (which most members of this forum will automatically reject because I don't worry about conspiracies), the fears of deflation resulting from low prices of finished goods coming into the US from Asia will be replaced by a greater fear of inflation resulting from much higher raw material prices (especially for all metals) because of the potentially enormous expansion of the Chinese economy.

Ten Bears

(12/23/2003; 20:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114039)

Loose Ends:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/default.htmMoney supply control techniques, Finance 360 or (560 for non-finance undergraduates). (195x 0r 196x)

Money supply may be controlled by both fiscal and monetary policy.

Fiscal policy: increasing taxes lowers money supply, and lowering taxes increases money supply.

Monetary policy: (three principle methods), open market operations, discount window and (the big gun) reserve requirements.

Have things really changed so much that the overnight rate, which was previously more of a signal to the member banks, is now the main tool of monetary policy?

http://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/

21mabry

(12/23/2003; 20:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114040)

Conspiracy

I have been reading a book called the Money Masters by a Eustice Mullins.This book is a great read if your into conspiracys as I am,an interesting passage in the book tells of the setting of the gold price by the Rothschilds and their fellow bullion banks.The book seems to relate to the reader that the gold price is set according to world currency supply no matter if the amount of gold per currency unit is infinetly small.The currency is still tied to gold.21

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 21:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114041)

Ten Bears

The third paragraph of your linked article describes the primary importance of the fed funds rate. Nothing has changed. A sharp increase in the funds rate can create a sharply negative yield curve, aimed at reducing economic activity and prices, and a sharp decrease in the funds rate can create a sharply positive yield curve, aimed at increasing economic activity and prices.

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 21:06:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114042)

China-Mart and Pedro......

I was thinking earlier today about the lie that is the "CPI." In doing so, I tried to identify the mechanisms employed by TPTB to minimize increases in the price of crap we need (generally called inflation - however, inflation is the increase in the supply of money and not the corresponding rise in price relative to said money). I have read numerous articles that one of the strategies of the Fed to hide "inflation" is to import deflation - namely, import those goods manufactured where labor costs would not reflect the expansion of the dollar fiat. To that end, Wal-Mart, where 99% of what is sold there is actually made in China, meets this goal.

I then began to think about the macro-financial rationale for allwoing an untold number of "illegal" persons into the US. When you think of the "US" as a closed financial system it becomes a bit more obvious that as inflation (real inflation - a literal increase in the amount of dollars) was taxing the limits of the system to exist without any warning to the compliant "sheeple" that they were being had, a second outlet for the inflation needed to come into play. The first outlet for our inflation during the eighties and mid-nineties was China ala Wal-Mart. The second outlet, and the reason for the absolute lack of any type of border enforcement in TX, NM, AZ is the Mexican worker who has a waiting family back home. IMO (and I may be wrong as I so aptly demonstrated today), so that the increasing plethora of dollars did not creep into consumer prices in the past few years, there had to be a release valve for the US dollar system to syphon off the excess. That occurred by the excess dollars being paid to Mexican workers who have built our new houses over the past five or so years and, in an effort to save, have sent those dollars back to their families in Mexico.

In summary:

Inflation relief vale #1 - China

Inflation relief valve #2 - Mexico

Word has it that China will be trading in all of their excess dollars for gold soon. This may impact your portfolio and way of life.

With more than a beer in me, knock yourself out at countering the above hypotheses.

Happy holidays!

PA

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 21:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114043)

Paper Avalanche

With respect to your Inflation Relief Valve #1 - China - please read the third paragraph of Msg. # 114038.

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 21:27:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114044)

@ Agingfast....

With all due respect to the Wharton faculty, I believe that the greatest mistake that is being made by modern day economists and financial advisors is to reference prior correlations (whether between fed funds and gold, long or short term interest rates, the stock market and bonds, etc.) with respect to a dollar-centric analysis.

I have read your previous posts and you are certainly very educated in the study of macro-economics, monetary policy, and related areas. However, I interpret what you are telling me as being only applicable in a world where the US dollar is forever the world resevre currency. To that end, I cannot help but wonder how your assertions hold up under scrutiny where there are multiple inputs into the economic equation where the dollar is but a competitor and not king within the financial world.

My question to you is this.... does your contention about the Fed funds rate and price of gold retain its argumentative position if the US dollar is regarded internationally in similar fashion to the Mexican peso, Italian Lira, etc.?

I am betting that it does not. However, as my prognosticative talents have proven earlier today, I am very often wrong.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 21:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114045)

To further illustrate my point about inflation valve #2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A25882-2003Dec23?language=printerIt is always fun during an election year.

PA

Ten Bears

(12/23/2003; 21:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114046)

Agingfast , Another view. Perhaps worth a read.

http://www.mosler.org/docs/docs/a_historic_change_in_monetary_policy.htm
"A Historic Change in Monetary Policy".

snip>"The only problem with applying these relationships today is that we are not on a gold standard, as President Nixon suspended convertibility in 1971. Today banks are no longer reserve constrained since, with a nonconvertible currency; the government can lend actual cash to banks to meet withdrawal demands without the risk of loss of the nation's gold supply".

snip>"These data suggest that the Fed absolutely controls interest rates but can only indirectly influence changes in the monetary base."

snip>"Note Recent Major Change: Starting Jan 2003, the Fed starting charging a higher rate (+1%) for discount loans vs. Fed Funds target rate, instead of the tradition of lower rates (by 1/2%, see Table above), but made it much easier to get discount loans, especially for healthy banks (+1% vs. +1.5% for weak banks). Reasons: Fed wants to: 1) reduce volatility in the Fed Funds market by providing a fixed discount rate, and 2) make funds readily available for all banks, healthy and weak, all the time, but without subsidizing loans at below market rates. Banks previously had to prove that they could not obtain funds privately before being eligible for discount loans".

http://spruce.flint.umich.edu/~mjperry/468-4.htm

Druid

(12/23/2003; 21:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114047)

Ten Bears (12/23/03; 08:43:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 113975)

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/theend.html
"There is iron in your words, and gold in your truths, and enlightenment for any who wish to see. Thank you."

Druid: Thank you Ten Bears. I would like to thank you for initially providing the link that brought to my attention in an obvious fashion how the country's debt is approaching a limit. And for those that have not had an opportunity to review the data, click on the posted URL. Sir, in your words you always let me know, that at times, less is more.

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 21:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114048)

Paper Avalanche

It's the weakening dollar that's subjecting the US, rather than other countries, to the pain of higher raw material prices.

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 22:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114049)

@ Agingfast

Thank you for your comment on commodity prices vis-a-vis the US dollar.

However, you have yet to answer the question originally posed with respect to your assertion about the relationship between fed funds and gold price AND (per my recent post) the changing dynamics whereby the US dollar may no longer maintain hegemoic status (reserve currency) within the international financial community.

This should be a piece of cake for Wharton grads.

Eagerly anticipating your response.

PA

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 22:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114050)

should be.....

hegemonic

beer

holidays

my bad

take care

PA

The CoinGuy

(12/23/2003; 22:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114051)

Richard Russells Daily Comments

www.dowtheoryletters.comA small snippit:

Paper money is now being created wholesale throughout the world. Stated simply, all paper currency is now valued against each other. But more important, ultimately ALL paper is ultimately valued against the only true, intrinsic money -- gold. In world history, no irredeemable paper currency has ever survived. Since all the world's currency is now irredeemable (in gold), this means that in the end, the only form of money that will survive is real intrinsic money -- gold.

It's not a question of whether gold will survive, it's a question of when the world's current paper money will deteriorate and finally die. I can tell you that irredeemable paper will not survive -- but obviously I can't tell you when it will die. The timing is the only uncertainty.

Gold stocks and gold metal are not the same. Gold mining companies are run by men, and these stocks can be evaluated differently -- they can find new reserves, and they can lose reserves. Gold companies can be run well or badly, There can be mine accidents, and the companies can be regulated by governments. But gold in your hand is the end product. Only two things can happen to gold in your hand. It can be confiscated by government, and it can take more or less paper money to buy an ounce of it.

I do NOT see gold being confiscated by the US government. Confiscation would serve no purpose. Secondly, gold is now too established via ETFs, other nation's populations holding gold, gold in vaults, etc. Gold will not be confiscated. In fact, we may see the time when the US government encourages it's citizens to accumulate gold (as China is doing now doing with its own people).

Silver is not gold. In good times silver becomes a precious metal, but in bad times silver can become an industrial metal. Unlike gold, silver can be "used up" in manufacturing and commerce. Silver is now historically "cheap" compared with gold, There are trends, but there is no law saying that silver must gain relative strength against gold.

Comment: Richard's not quite there, but from his comments and my binoculars I can see him hoofing it up the right trail at stellar speed.

The CoinGuy

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 22:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114052)

Ten Bears

Ah, an "informative" article courtesy of Larry Kudlow. There are so many things in that article that I disagree with that I really don't want to get started on it. (Larry started out working for the Fed -- told me so himself many years ago - and that makes me nervous, and now he works for CNBC and that makes me nervous, too.) But let me at least say that the monetary base consists almost entirely of currency in circulation (CIC) and changes in CIC are triggered by the public, not by the Fed. Also, bank reserves are no big deal. Reserves only apply against a small portion of the deposits included in the money supply - which is why Required Reserves only run about $42-44 billion (remember Mogambo's misplaced complaints about that?). The only real constraint on bank lending nowadays is the banks' willingness to make loans and borrowers' willingness to borrow.

Agingfast

(12/23/2003; 22:40:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114053)

Paper Avalanche

In accordance with the KISS principle, I don't deal in hypotheticals.

Now I really have to stop posting here or the next thing you know forum members will be asking me to tell their fortunes.

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 22:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114054)

@ Agingfast - Hypotheticals

I would understand your position were I to pose a question whereby I included a hypothetical currency for arguments sake to elicit your response.

The Euro is not hypothetical. It is real.

My question still stands.... in light of the US dollar no longer being the reserve currency of the world, does your fed funds / price of gold relationship sill stand?

In my opinion, you must argue one of two positions - a) either the dollar will remain the world reserve currency ad infinitim or b) answer my original question.

No easy quizzes for the Wharton grad.

PA

Black Blade

(12/23/2003; 23:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114055)

Boilermaker - Volcker

Actually the cigar chomping Volcker was the right man at the right time. He took the bull by the horns so to speak. Many criticized his efforts but it was going to be a painful cure for the "stagflation" disease that brought the U.S. economy to its knees (gradually or directly). Volcker didn't talk in circles and mumble meaningless garbage like Greenspan while Congressmen stare with eyes glazed over and nodding in agreement during "Humphey-Hawkins" and having no clue as to what is being said, but rather Volcker talked clearly and concisely about the problems in the US economy. Greenspan's (or as some call him Mr. Magoo) "go slow" approach only delays the inevitable and therefore more prolonged painful experience in addressing the problem. Regardless, "portfolio insurance" was beneficial then just as it is now.

One more side note - every postwar recession has been proceeded by an "energy crisis". We are still in an energy crisis and though the NBER no longers considers the US economy in recession (a fluke due to a change in methodology concerning the unemployment weighting), the high price of energy will go much higher. I have discussed this before in detail so I will leave it at that. You can guess the rest.

BTW, you identified one online broker I use for some cheap trading - an interesting method I must admit. But using dollar amounts for buying shares (like mutual funds resulting in ownership of fractional shares vs. round lot buying) is something I had to get used too. ;-)

Still, they do have some very interesting articles and history lessons from time to time.

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche

(12/23/2003; 23:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114056)

@ Agingfast

This should be a slam dunk.

Especially against a guy who went to state school.

Tick tock.

PA

Druid

(12/23/2003; 23:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114057)

Correlations vs Causations

What a great discussion by everybody involved. In my previous link to Ten Bears, you will note the peak of Short term Fed Funds Rate at 19.08% back in the early eighties. "Correlate", if you will, the upward growth in the MZM money supply and the downward trend of the Fed Funds rate over time and you get at present a very short term Fed Funds rate but and incredible explosion in MZM debt growth. Since our "money" of today is comprised of debt, one could certainly make the argument that there is both a direct "causation" and "correlation" between these two variables. Now, this is a pretty good snapshot of a point in time that covers some twenty plus years and you can certainly discern an overall trend. Within the overall trend of MZM growth, pick any variable that represents anything financial, economic or my favorite, miniskirts and map it (regress for you hard core types) against MZM money growth. I guarantee you can pretty much paint and/or create any picture you are looking to make a case for or against. The key here for most modern day shamans is to omit the MZM variable (dominant causation) and focus on the other weaker variables. An argument has been presented that a lower Fed Funds rate will create the environment for higher job growth and therefore lead to higher inflation. Look at the graph and any recent jobs data over the last 3 1/2 years and you will note that over this time frame, lower rates do not lead to higher job growth.

Black Blade

(12/23/2003; 23:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114058)

Retailers Next Markdown? Profit Outlooks

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=3&u=/nm/20031223/bs_nm/retail_outlook_dc
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - First it was discounted toys, then cheap consumer electronics. The next big markdown for U.S. retailers may be profit forecasts. With only two shopping days left before Christmas, stores are counting on big after-Christmas crowds and piles of plastic gift cards to prop up lackluster sales. But that may be too late for earnings because shoppers will be looking for steep, profit-squeezing discounts, analysts said. Many analysts have already downgraded their profit forecasts, particularly for lower-end department stores and discounters where holiday sales have not met expectations. The companies themselves may give gloomy profit outlooks when they report December sales early next month.

Merrill Lynch said on Tuesday that analyst Dan Barry was among the more bullish analysts at the start of the holiday shopping season, and his estimates on all four retailers had been above the average of Wall Street forecasts. "The low-end consumer is spending much less than expected," Barry said in a research note. Retailers have blamed disappointing holiday sales on back-to-back weekend snowstorms, gift cards that don't immediately count as revenue, bargain-hungry last-minute shoppers and the heightened security situation. Analysts have said a recovering economy was helping wealthier households more than it was aiding lower-income families. Stock market gains also tend to spur high-end spending.

Black Blade: "Economic recovery"? Once again retailers are discounting to lure in shoppers. I saw one report that a large number of shoppers were "window shopping" more than buying and even the low end discount retail outlets were having trouble. Even the usual toy store FAO (in bankruptcy again), Toys-R-Us, and KB Toys are reporting dismal sales. WalMart and other discount retailers are expecting lower profits as well. The hope is that the profit picture will improve on the use of "gift cards", but I wonder how much of that will be offset by returns of unwanted merchandise. Only the luxury retailers are reporting robust sales from wealthier patrons and among the highest sales items � jewelry. On a side note � there is talk of some low end jewelers proposing sales of 9K gold jewelry (garbage gold, that is worthless trinkets with 37.5% gold and the rest pot metal or some base metal). The gullible US consumer is getting screwed again while jewelers in foreign nations still use 18K in Euroland and 22-24K gold elsewhere.

Black Blade

(12/23/2003; 23:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114059)

China's Crippling Power Shortages

http://english.people.com.cn/200312/22/eng20031222_130913.shtml
Snippit:

Vice-Premier Zeng Peiyan presided over a State Council meeting Sunday, to discuss the electricity shortage and called for greater efforts to improve power production and distribution, build more power plants and grids, and smooth the pricing mechanism, so as to meet power demands. Since June 2002, the country's power consumption has been increasing by an average 15 percent a month. Restrictions on electricity use have been launched in 21 provinces and autonomous regions, resulting in negative impacts on the local economy and people's lives.

Black Blade: Aside from the growing need for energy in China (even with more coal fired power), it should also be noted that China also increased oil imports over 50% this year and demand is growing rapidly. These emerging economies will need a bigger slice of the world oil and NatGas supply and at the pace of this growing demand we shall see a greater stress on the petroleum sector to meet this demand.

Liberty Head

(12/23/2003; 23:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114060)

Make It Relative

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. The powerful Oz has spoken."
Blow away all the smoke about fed fund rates and one can more clearly see the heart of the matter is unbridled government spending.
Focusing on the fed fund rate is a diversion from this fundamental truth.
It's like taking asprin for a hangover, but not cutting back on your drinking. Sooner or later there is going to be hell to pay.

Best Wishes

Great Albino Bat

(12/24/2003; 01:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114061)

Big picture

A poster absent for some time, said once: "Few men are witness to great events; fewer still understand what they are seeing."

Perhaps "we can't see the forest for (because of) the trees"

What we are privileged to contemplate is the collapse of industrial civilization; for some, the motion is so slow as to make it invisible; for others, the motion is quite rapid and the rumbling of the Niagara over which we will be hurled can be heard clearly.

The leading actor in the collapse, is the USA, the mightiest nation of all time - but mighty in material strength, deficient in spiritual strength.

Historians of the future will talk about the decline and fall of the USA for centuries to come, with opinions and interpretations as diverse as their personal characters and understandings.

We can analyse Fed funds rates etc., from morning till night, in Byzantine discussions. And why not, if it interests you? Still, listen carefully and you will hear the distant roar of approaching Niagara.

Physical gold - the only reasonable attempt at a refuge from the coming collapse. Get some at CPM, now!

Doom and gloom - but for good reasons - from the GAB

Aristotle

(12/24/2003; 01:47:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114062)

Ooofph!! Too harsh!!

"What we are privileged to contemplate is the collapse of industrial civilization."

That price is way too high to willingly be paid by those who can decide which direction HumptyDumpty tips, or whether he falls at all. In other words, the continuation of a dollar-centric world would be seen as the lesser of these evils and would be maintained as the preferred alternative while another, more gradual and less disruptive evolutionary transition is put into play to promote the general welfare of Earth's most remarkable residents.

Soooooo.... rather than wasting time on a purely academic, hypothetical contemplation of the collapse of industrial civilization, it might be more productively worthwhile to contemplate that which truly lies ahead -- the great leveling of the playing field as int'l reserve status of the dollar is put to bed.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Sundeck

(12/24/2003; 03:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114063)

BB-China's Power Consumption

Wow...15% per month increase in power consumption...that is a doubling every 5 months...you can see why they are scrambling to establish large strategic petroleum reserves, although I guess that most of their electricity is from coal fired generators. Perhaps China's economy is going to shortly become "energy limited", as all industrial economies are soon to become (next few years). The question is "How high in price can oil and natural gas go?" as the balance is struck between the competing needs and expectations of the industrialised and industrialising world...interesting times.

A Very Merry Christmas to all at the Mighty Oaken Table (some good posts lately)...

Thank you to our Host...GO GOLD!

:-)

Sundeck

misetich

(12/24/2003; 06:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114064)

Congress authorizes Ashcroft to track gold in the U.S.

http://www.underreported.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1219&mode=threadℴ=0&thold=0Snip:

According to HR 2417 (Section 374), which became Public Law 108-177 on Dec. 13, 2003:
(a) MODIFICATION OF DEFINITION- Section 1114 of the Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978 (12 U.S.C. 3414) is amended by adding at the end the following:
'(d) For purposes of this section, and sections 1115 and 1117 insofar as they relate to the operation of this section, the term 'financial institution' has the same meaning as in subsections (a)(2) and (c)(1) of section 5312 of title 31, United States Code [...]'

where the Financial Privacy Act was one of the victims of the USA PATRIOT Act (Section 358). Now HR 2417 redefines "financial institution" to match U.S. Code Title 31 Section 5312:
(2) ''financial institution'' means -
[...]
(N) a dealer in precious metals, stones, or jewels;

This could be a prelude to an FDR-style outlawing of gold possession. For more on the future of gold vs. paper money, see the Dec. 28, 2002 UnderReported.com story China deregulates gold; country's demand to double, affecting world market
*************
Misetich

Comments?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steady

(12/24/2003; 06:28:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114065)

<:+)

perception reception dont be fooled by the deception.
concentration, admiration go get your gold ration.
fish, dont wish.
chrstmass eve, ANOTHER & FOA please return from your leave.
will ecoism create a schism
this almost seems like a series of dreams
playing out before us
soon the world wll be clamering to get on the gold bus.
may peace and love, the kind represented by a dove decennd upon you and the ones you love, not just during this holiday season but all year long.
dont worry gata isnt wrong.
this is getting to long so im gone!

gold and silver
honest money for
hoest people

merry christmass even to the sheeple!

misetich

(12/24/2003; 07:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114066)

U.S. PENSION FUNDS: Gap grows between assets, obligations

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0312240250dec24,1,1710496.story?coll=chi-business-hedSnip:

Despite surging stock prices this year, U.S. corporate pension funds have fallen even further behind, Standard & Poor's analysts said in a report issued Tuesday.

The pension underfunding gap, which is the estimated cost of retiree obligations relative to fund assets, widened this year by $47 billion, to a record $259 billion. The deeper gap came even as the stock market headed toward its first year of gains since 1999.

Pension fund assets have risen by $112 billion to $1.06 trillion this year, but estimated obligations rose by $160 billion to $1.32 trillion, the analysts said. At the same time, the total return from the S&P 500 index, which tracks the largest U.S. stocks, is on pace to exceed 25 percent this year. The analysts said pension funding relative to overall market value was little changed this year, at negative 2.58 percent.
****************
Misetich

Fund managers adopted of high risk - high proportion - to stock market during the late 90's to fatten their bonuses

Corporations such as GM are implementing even higher risk manuverous to avoid taking an earning stock valuation hit

Most believe the current SM uptick is a bear market rally - if they're right things will get a lot worse for pension funds

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Belgian

(12/24/2003; 07:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114067)

Agreeing with GAB's Big Picture and confirmed by Ari....

When carefully listening between the lines, during last night's informal interview with W. Duisenberg & wife...I concluded that A/FOA's insights are still in the process of materializing. An ex central banker (W.D.) and his compagnon (Gretta), as a controversial political activist, were very "understandable" for A/FOA students.

Duisenberg is still "hyperfocussed" on the �>$ exchange rate ! Not for "economical" reasons but for A/FOA's reasons.

The *** US$ *** has become "THE" exponent of the geo-political evolvements, now more than ever before.

There was no forum-reaction on the Libya-Khadaffi, stunt. IMHO, another important, evolving element, in the oil-dollar-euro, saga.

Gold's time will come...is coming !

Best wishes to all and many thanks for the relentless flow of insights. Much appreciated. Belgian.

steady

(12/24/2003; 08:36:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114068)

gifts

http://www.despair.com/2004calendar.htmlin the spirit of giving here is my gift to the gold bears and the cabal. enjoy!

Dollar Bill

(12/24/2003; 08:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114069)

*>*

**Sir Belgian, my reaction to the libya wmd change was the idea that kadafi thinks the US is about to get hit by wmd's.
He does not want to be on the short list of who to blame.
Economic reasons? I dont know any.
**Sir Misetich, thanks for the Roach commentary on the Japanese intervention issue. Here is his core reason; "the more Japan recovers, the more Japanese interest rates tend to drift higher. But, as a result, the compressed yield differentials may end up being too small to offset the combined effects of expected JPY appreciation and the negative risk premium. Theory suggests that this should lead to less private capital heading overseas. In turn, the Japanese long bond yield may also be kept artificially low as private capital is trapped in Japan. In other words, the combination of (1) a declining USD, (2) a recovering Japan, and (3) intervention that is not consistent and not sustainable, continued official interventions would be offset by a reduction in private capital outflows. This is one key structural reason why I believe continued massive intervention will fail eventually."
He is making some leaps here that seem less than certain.
Good for him for trying to show a way it could get weak, but it is a way that is not a sure thing. Even if it is the way structurally that failure comes, it is big news to see Japan take its stand, place its bets like this.
Related, there has been info about China's internal communications to its people about Japan's war crimes. They exaggurate the numbers of the rape of Nanking, and keep discussing it. Regular folks interviewed in China have a hot view of Japan. Japan has not apologized according to info, while Japan is using China labor at this time, do the Japanese really think of the future as a China/Japan embrace?
I am thinking no. There was a link here once to an analysis of Japan in 20 years by a Japanese analyst. He saw continued investment by Japan in the US even though Japan would never come out ahead. That it lost its chance for reserve status in 89, and it's future is to manage a multi trillion dollar investment in the US. While the US continues to live off borrowing. 20 years out. Up to Japan perhaps.
al kyda may alter that, if nothing else does.

Boilermaker

(12/24/2003; 08:46:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114070)

China Electric Power

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-12/11/content_289148.htmSnip;
The government has launched a nationwide probe into soaring coal prices that have contributed to the power supply crunch this winter.

The move comes at a time when many power companies are running out of thermal coal as fuel after failing to reach agreements with coal mines on pricing. Generating plants in some areas have been forced to halt operations, which in turn, has led to rolling blackouts.

The government hopes the regulation of coal prices will help quiet the spat between the coal and power industries, and alleviate the electricity shortfall.

The National Development and Reform Commission said it will regulate those illegally raising coal prices, stockpiling the supply for speculation, and adulterating the products.

It will also tend to exorbitant prices charged to coal companies by local administrations and transportation companies.

Comment
OOPS! China's National Development and Reform Commission getting into the regulation coal prices. It won't be long until China will be exporting inflation.
China's electric power grid is about 40% the size of the US grid and is 75% powered by coal. It's growing at about 10% a year which is higher than the peak US growths experienced in the 50's and 60's. Power supply will be the limiting factor for future growth and I don't think it's possible to ramp up the electric grid any faster. Huge capital investments for power projects will begin to starve capital from other industrial projects. Also there will be tension for limited supplies of power between industrial, commercial and residential consumers. China is against the wall on growth.
Boilermaker

(12/24/2003; 09:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114071)

Misetich

The law you cite is not intended to track gold transactions but cash transactions. It is not carta blanche to monitor what law abiding gold investors are doing, but an attempt to regulate money laundering. As such, it is not a far cry from our responsibilities under the law before this new act was passed. To go even further and say that it is a precursor to a gold confiscation when gold ownership in this country is a privilege not a right anyway, is to verge on hysterical paranoia. This same sort of reaction occurred when the government imposed reporting transactions on gold in the mid-1980s. The hue and cry would have made you believe that the constitution had been abrogated and we would all be marched off to the camps at any moment. What it was in reality was a requirement for gold dealers to file a 1099 form -- the same 1099 form used in all liquidations of investment items.

Let's try to remain calm........

Jacob Marley

(12/24/2003; 09:07:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114072)

Dollar Bill 114069 - Libya

Good Morning DB. Economic reasons? I'll give you a hint. It starts with "oil" ... Merry Christmas, Sir. I enjoy your posts.

Agingfast

(12/24/2003; 09:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114073)

MK - I'll drink to that

Forum members may not like it but I'll say it again: Gold advocates' alarmist cries about the risk of gold confiscation and their shrill repeated warnings about the clever and powerful forces constantly working to suppress the price of gold discourage potential gold investors and thus play into the hands of those who don't want the price of gold to rise.

misetich

(12/24/2003; 09:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114074)

MK (12/24/03; 09:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 114071)

MK

Thanks for the clarification -

Season's Greetings to you and the staff at CPM and to all

Paper Avalanche

(12/24/2003; 09:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114075)

Some one is dumping alot of greenbacks today

Check out the USDX - now down to 87.50

PA

Belgian

(12/24/2003; 09:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114076)

@ Dollar Bill

Without going into exhausting and confusing details, I wish to put the ongoing events into the appropiate frame : *** The US dollar as the planet's numeraire for International trade ***.

This dollar-frame is MUCH more than simply economics. It is all about the balances of global powers.

Things like WMD,...dictators,...regimes,...terror, etc...do come and go, often without Big changes in the global balances of powers.
The dollar-numeraire (reserve-currency), eventually losing its specific status is (will be) a very "dramatic" change !

The planet's dollar-numeraire is under siege. Not a frontal confrontation but rather an exhaustion process. One can openly (externally) be accodomotive towards the reigning superpower as to organise stealth resistance with a systemic undermining of the dollar-numeraire that stands with and for the superpower.

Isn't it surprising that Libya as an oil-producer, makes such a spectacular move, through the intermediair of Tony Blair ? At a moment when Bush and Blair, apparently are not so close anymore.

It's about that big dollar-frame, Sir DB. Oil-gas-other resources, in "what" kind of numeraire, Sir !? A "to be or not to be" question for the dollar-reserve. The real meaning of the words "Gigantic Power Play".

Most probably, you dis-agree with this vision. But then I still do not understand how one can remain pro-dollar AND pro-Gold, at the same time ?

What if Libya wishes to come under the building euro-umbrella, through hypocrite dollar flattery ? Very little often does NOT seems what it really is. Can you exclude this thought trail ?

Gandalf the White

(12/24/2003; 09:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114077)

Thanks Sir PA ! Take a look at the timing --- 8 am ORDERS -- DIVE !

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Which form would you like to have your INSURANCE in today ?
The greenish US$ ?
Stock in Micky D's ?
OR a little YELLOW ?
HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE
and "THANKS", Sir M. K. for all you do !!!
<;-)

R Powell

(12/24/2003; 10:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114078)

Electric power in China

The largest dam in the world, Three Gorges Dam, is now generating electric power in China. I don't have specifics on how much but millions were displaced by this damming of the Yangtse River. This should help the energy problem considerably.

Gold and silver up, dollar down today in shortened trading session. What's up with silver options? I can't get orders filled even when offering more than the asking price.
This is most unusual. Is something afoot?

Happy Holidays one and all
Rich

DryWasher

(12/24/2003; 10:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114079)

Big picture (GAB 114061) & (Ari 114062)

Sir GAB wrote :

"What we are privileged to contemplate is the collapse of industrial civilization; for some, the motion is so slow as to make it invisible; for others, the motion is quite rapid and the rumbling of the Niagara over which we will be hurled can be heard clearly."

And Sir Ari responded:

"That price is way too high to willingly be paid by those who can decide which direction HumptyDumpty tips, or whether he falls at all. In other words, the continuation of a dollar-centric world would be seen as the lesser of these evils and would be maintained as the preferred alternative while another, more gradual and less disruptive evolutionary transition is put into play to promote the general welfare of Earth's most remarkable residents."

DryWasher:

That is a very dark vision of the future you have Sir GAB but is it possible that it can really be that bad? Sir Aristotle is most certainly right that the price is way too high to willingly be paid by all of us including those who have led us to where we are today.
Is it possible that those who have led us to this dead end could be so blind and arrogant as to allow this disaster to occur? Or could it be that this boat that we are all in is being swept along by the ever faster current and that those at the helm only APPEAR to be in control of the situation? That couldn't really happen to US could it, because are WE not the greatest civilization ever?

Are WE not immune from the lessons of history that teach us that great civilizations DO fall and are replaced by ignorance and poverty for long periods? And is it not true that civilizations have survived monetary collapses before, although granted not of such a great magnitude, and not in a civilization which is so interdependent, and not with a looming energy shortage and a technology that is totally dependent on cheap abundant energy to function.

No Sir GAB, Sir Ari MUST be right because it is just UNTHINKABLE for it to be otherwise. That sound that you hear is probably just some rapids, rather than a falls, so sit back and enjoy the boat ride as your captain Sir Allen Greenspan guides us safely on our journey.

Gold. Get you some? You Had Better Believe it!

mikal

(12/24/2003; 10:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114080)

Bill Collector

'Twas The Day After Christmas

Twas the day after Christmas, and all through the house,
Every creature was hurting -- even the mouse.
The toys were all broken, their batteries dead;
Santa passed out, with some ice on his head.
Wrapping and ribbons just covered the floor, while
Upstairs the family continued to snore.
And I in my T-shirt, new Reeboks and jeans,
Went into the kitchen and started to clean.
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the sink to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the curtains, and threw up the sash.
When what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a little white truck, with an oversized mirror.
The driver was smiling, so lively and grand;
The patch on his jacket said "U.S. POSTMAN."
With a handful of bills, he grinned like a fox
Then quickly he stuffed them into our mailbox.
Bill after bill, after bill, they still came.
Whistling and shouting he called them by name:
"Now Dillard's, now Broadway's, now Penny's and Sears
Here's Levitz's and Target's and Mervyn's--all here!!
To the tip or your limit, every store, every mall,
Now chargeaway-chargeaway-chargeaway all!"
He whooped and he whistled as he finished his work.
He filled up the box, and then turned with a jerk.
He sprang to his truck and he drove down the road,
Driving much faster with just half a load.
Then I heard him exclaim with great holiday cheer,
"ENJOY WHAT YOU GOT ... YOU'LL BE PAYING ALL YEAR!"
Author Unknown

Goldilox

(12/24/2003; 10:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114081)

Confiscation evidence vs. rumors

@ AgingFast

As a proponent of gold ownership, I am very conscious of the ramifications of confiscation rumors on the price of gold. No one wants to see this happen less than I do. However, there have been some actions in government that suggest potential for movement in that direction, even if they still are only hinting only a "small" chance at this time. It would be remiss to totally ignore those actions, as we are all about reporting ANY actions that effect gold ownership and pricing, positive or negative. When evidence is unearthed, reporting it is the best method of opening it to examination and [in]validation. I, for one, am much better assured by thorough examination of the potentials than by ignoring possible evidence and preaching "it can't happen here". Gold proponents are currently outnumbered in Congress by a ratio of 434:1, so IMHO, watchfulness is in order.

Each reader has the responsibilty to quote sources as carefully as possible and protect themselves from any perceived risks. MK's gracious gift of this forum allows us to practice the principles of the last free press available to mankind - internet information sharing.

Happy holidays to all - this has been an awesome year for PMs, and looking into 2004 suggests continuation. Best wishes and thanks to you all for the opportunity to stay informed and learn from such a diverse crowd of gold market observers and participants.

Goldilox

(12/24/2003; 10:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114082)

The 12 Days of Christmas Index

CNBC is reporting its "12 Days of Christmas" index and five golden rings dropped from last years value of $382 to $361. Their explanation is that demand for simple bands is down, even though gold is up along with demand for more complex golden jewelry.

Hmmmm. . . sounds like someone is shaving the golden bands to reduce weight, as well.

Hey, it's Roman holiday season, too, so coin shaving is probably back in style, as well.

Great Albino Bat

(12/24/2003; 10:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114083)

Drywasher's and Aristotle's comments on my Big Picture

Drywasher and Aristotle, thanks for your comments!

I hope you are right and I am wrong is all I can say. Nothing we can do about it, anyway, so perhaps the less we think about this, the better. After all, as a Famous Dead Economist once said: "In the long run, we are all dead."

More importantly, I repeat words expressed on this day's night twenty centuries ago:

PEACE ON EARTH, GOODWILL TO MEN.

Merry Christmas to all!

The GAB

Goldilox

(12/24/2003; 11:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114084)

Waterfall or Rapids?

@ GAB-

Perhaps that sound you hear is just BB and LW pouring their Winter ales into a frosty mug to spread holiday cheer!

DryWasher

(12/24/2003; 11:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114085)

@ Great Albino Bat (114083)(114061)

I hope you didn't miss the sarcasm in my post. The point that I was trying to make was that I am very much afraid that you may be right, and that we are just turning a blind eye to the realities of the situation. I like you hope that Sir Ari is right, but fear that he may be wrong. By the way, your entire post was excellent in my opinion. Merry Christmas to you and to all. May we all have a Golden new year.
DryWasher.

Belgian

(12/24/2003; 12:10:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114086)

@Agingfast

Any Gold-cries, alarmist and others, are nefast anyway. Goldadvocates' main vocation is to provide *insight* in what is the fundamental difference between a currency (fiat) and Gold. We should be much more alarmist about the currency ($) that lost all "positive" association with Gold.
This dis-association (fiat-Gold) was purposely engineered over time and did NOT happen accidently or evolutionary.
Call this process as you wish.

The insight that every currency has a lifetime (shelflive) is the one and only fundamental positive for Gold's appropiate revaluation. Those, who still do know this, will bring Gold back into its proper epicentric place, as visible as it can be, for the general public. And not the other way around.

Federal_Reserves

(12/24/2003; 12:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114087)

Random thoughts

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.aspHollywood producers put on make believe movies and people buy tickets.

As you sit and watch the show, it completely takes you in, and becomes real. It takes you through
many emotional ups and downs, and the ending is always a guessing game, like life itself.

That's what buying stocks is all about. The Wall Street Producers put out positive stock news and economic
reports, it takes you in, and it becomes real. You buy a ticket and enter the show. You read the reviews its
going to be great. The emotional roller coaster rides begins. Yet it remains a guessing game, some say a random
walk through a long run trend line.

So today, the producers drained money, and the market fell. Why ask why? Wait for the next act. Is it time to run a shake out for the next big rally, or is the end near?

The human condition will be what it always has been, a constant struggle to make order from the chaos
that surrounds us with only two constants to face death and taxes.

I do hope by chance some happiness and pleasure enters your life this Christmas and New Year!

Agingfast

(12/24/2003; 12:26:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114088)

Belgian

Yeah, yeah, but it's purchases of gold that make this forum possible -- and for forum members to go and on about the risk of confiscation and the powerful forces that they "know" are holding down the price of gold does NOT encourage gold purchases. You don't see Wall Street constantly warning potential customers about obstacles to price appreciation in equities and bonds.

Boilermaker

(12/24/2003; 12:38:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114089)

Gifting Gold Winnings

Some of us here may be in the enviable position of having large capital gains this year some of which our diligent IRS will want to share. Consider signing over some dusty old highly appreciated stock certificates to your favorite charity. Mine is my church's building fund. This will reap rewards for givers and receivers and keep some money out of the hands that least deserve it.
May you all have a good Christmas/Chanukah/Whatever and peace be with you and yours for the coming year.

Boilermaker

Boilermaker

(12/24/2003; 12:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114090)

Cofiscation Via Taxes?

I agree that outright confiscation of gold as happened in 1933 is a remote possibility. But I have always been leery of the use of taxes to confiscate gold gradually and at the same time make it less desirable to own. This might take the form of a tax on non-productive assets such as gold or cash. Any other thoughts on this?

Boilermaker

Goldilox

(12/24/2003; 13:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114091)

Ignore concerns?

@ AgingFast

Given your life experiences as you've expressed them, and the troubled times you've witnessed, I would expect you to be the LAST one to advocate "hiding your head in the sand". Gee- let's not investigate ANYTHING, as governments ALWAYS have our best interests at heart. Just ask the Germans your age . . . or even working class Americans like my parents who lived through the 30's without the benefit of "connections" in the banking business. They lost everything - including the right to own gold.

Offering evidence is not just about "forum members go[ing on] and on about the risk of confiscation." Honest evaluation is what freedom is about. Hiding evidence is what tyranny is about.

Wall Street also didn't warn us about the "bubbles' in NASDAQ, but instead kept talking about incredible increases in "productivity". So I ALWAYS listen to them, because their whole reason to be is to get my money when I am not paying attention. But taking what they say at surface value is not very healthy for one's assets.

I am not privy to your personal or political situation , but I, for one, plan to continue "questioning authority". After a long study of history, I cannot afford to trust any politicians or PTB to protect anyone beyond their favorite special interests - DEMO, REPUB or other.

Happy holidays to all the Knights and Ladies in these troubled times, and thanks again to CPM for an open forum to examine and discuss our different views. The economic picture continues to suggest that we accumulate gold. Political messages suggest we maintain vigilance to protect ourselves from the vagaries of our troubled world. "We didn't know" won't cut the mustard when things get, as BB likes to say, "INTERESTING."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/24/2003; 13:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114092)

Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Agingfast

(12/24/2003; 13:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114093)

Goldilox

Ah, yes, always put the argument on a personal basis. "I would think that YOU" -- etc., etc. Hey, I didn't say hide your beliefs about price manipulation. I'm just saying don't go on and on and on about them, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. You don't have to hide any price-suppressing negatives that you believe are out there but the overwhelming bulk of posts should emphasis gold's positives.

misetich

(12/24/2003; 14:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114094)

Agingfast (12/24/03; 13:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114093)

Your comments
Agingfast (12/24/03; 13:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114093)

but the overwhelming bulk of posts should emphasis gold's positives.
.............

Agingfast (12/24/03; 12:26:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114088)

Yeah, yeah, but it's purchases of gold that make this forum possible -- and for forum members to go and on about the risk of confiscation and the powerful forces that they "know" are holding down the price of gold does NOT encourage gold purchases
..............

Agingfast (12/24/03; 09:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114073)

Forum members may not like it but I'll say it again: Gold advocates' alarmist cries about the risk of gold confiscation and their shrill repeated warnings about the clever and powerful forces constantly working to suppress the price of gold discourage potential gold investors and thus play into the hands of those who don't want the price of gold to rise.

Misetich

I have followed your posts with immense curiosity - always a willing student to avail from the experiences of others...

The link which I posted earlier on Congress
misetich (12/24/03; 06:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 114064)
has been already addressed with and dealt by MK, and he and CPM are quite capable in deciding if posters meet Forum guidelines

Confiscation, Central Bank Callusions (Gold Pool of 1968) has been and is part of gold's history... gold puchases and demand has been increasing multi fold recently - and will for years to come as the fiat system debt loads and imbalances are unsustainable

...on to the positive

If you may share with us your reasons for owning gold and why

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Ag Mountain

(12/24/2003; 14:12:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114095)

I just don't get it

Agingfast, unless I heard you wrong a few days ago you're an admitted 100% bond-man, so why do you care how effective some of our chat is in the general promotion of gold among others? Maybe we're simply trying to work out the issues that are important to us and maybe we really don't give a damn about doing the World Gold Council's promotional work for them. So tell me, why do YOU care? Some full disclosure would be nice from YOU for a change since you keep insisting on it from everyone else.

R Powell

(12/24/2003; 14:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114096)

Dollar supports ?

From an Agingfast post from yesterday......

"The only real constraint on bank lending nowadays is the banks' willingness to make loans and borrowers' willingness to borrow."

Agree and this may be beyond anyone's control, no? Lots of money but none moving, lots of long term debt offered but no one interested due to the low rate of return and the declining value (purchasing power) of the returned (at maturity) money. Agressive lenders no longer lending. I see signs of this occuring now.

Should this continue and happen enough so that it becomes a problem, then what? What options are there to let the dollar's value decline gradually.

We getting close to Santa Claus time. Have you been good? Happy holidays
Rich

Ag Mountain

(12/24/2003; 14:46:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114097)

Boilermaker 114090

Taxation. Amen.

Before any of us moving targets are hit it'll fall hardest at the source, on the production of miners because that's where it would be easiest. They're sitting ducks. It's the same rationale that explains why an income tax came AFTER the industrial revolution; because suddenly the paychecks of factory workers were like ripe apples waiting to be plucked. Same thing for ore carts rolling out of the ground. So if you look down the road a ways its easy to see why it's better to own the gold which has already become free and clear mobile instead of owning the sitting duck company that mines its orebody.

Paper Avalanche

(12/24/2003; 15:10:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114098)

@ Agingfast - are you still working on your answer?

Hey big guy, I apologize if I missed your answer to the question that I put to you last night. I really need to understand your position relative to the likely replacement of the US dollar as the international reserve currency. Please share your knowledge so that I can better understand the fed funds rate / price of gold relationship in a world where the US has lost its privilege of seniorage.

Merry Christmas!!!!!

Thanks in advance,
Paper Avalanche

Agingfast

(12/24/2003; 15:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114099)

Paper Avalanche

You didn't miss my reponse because I didn't make one. As I said last night, I have no plans to post further comments but I couldn't resist a final remark about forum members who seem to have two conflicting goals -- extolling the virtues of gold ownership on the one hand but warning about how dangerous it is on the other. Lemme go quietly now.

Max Rabbitz

(12/24/2003; 15:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114100)

Sir Aging Fast,

I'm not trying to keep you, just want to note that this is indeed a strange forum where those who are long willingly point out possible downsides. How strange in this world of CNBC, analyst hucksters, Yahoo chatrooms and Federal Reserve Cheerleaders for honest evaluation of risk and reward. I for one am grateful. Merry Christmas to all.

Agingfast

(12/24/2003; 15:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114101)

Addendum

I guess I paid too much attention to management's notice that the purpose of this forum is "to share insights, news and discussion on the BENEFITS of gold coin and bullion ownership."

Liberty Head

(12/24/2003; 16:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114102)

Gold Confiscation vs Wealth Confiscation

Whether gold is confiscated or not, wealth is actively being confiscated through the act of government spending, every single minute of every single day.
You can think of it as prices, taxes, fees, loans, subsidies, benifits, services, etc. etc. but every last dime spent has been or will be confiscated under threat of force. If you doubt it, just try telling the Internal Revenue "Service" that you no longer desire their services. Keep saying "no thank you" and the threat of force will be knocking on your door in short order. No doubt, with Fox News crews on the scene to be sure nobody misconstrues the meaning of what they are viewing.

The government takes a cut from most any transaction anyone makes then spends X times that amount.
So, anyone who is concerned that the government will confiscate his wealth really hasn't been paying much attention. They are very much like fish in search of water.

Best Wishes

Belgian

(12/24/2003; 17:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114104)

@Agingfast

It is exactly the day I understood how and why Gold was contained that I started the accumulation of the Physical precious in possession ! Understanding Gold's containment is realizing how powerful Gold really is against the intrinsic worthlesness of many papers. Physical Gold accumulators don't walk over one night's ice and are extremely motivated once their choice for ultimate selfdefense falls on Gold.

Americans were banned from holding Gold, for 40 years, as to make worldwide dollar-expansion possible. The next phase for the dollar will be the opposite as will the private possession of Gold. There will be no reason to ban or confiscate Gold as the dollar's antithesis !!! On the contrary, if and when the dollar will be replaced by another reserve currency...it will be a Gold associated currency. Gold will not flow out of the dollar zone but into the dollar zone.

The dollar will lose its historical grip on Gold and will now rush for Gold at any price. The ongoing orderly decline (retreat) of the dollar is not another wavelet of temporary weakness, but an ongoing (irreversable) process of dollar self-defense and isolation. etc...etc...

Once a majority on this planet stops supporting the dollar in its reserve function, Gold doesn't need to remain contained (or confiscated) anymore. Once people understand why Gold had to be confiscated in the past and must remain contained at present...they will understand the inevitable future of Gold's revaluation. One cannot promote Physical Gold in Possession into another round of mini bull cycle. The global Gold-Market will/is changing as is the dollar in its reserve status.

I'll change my reasoning as soon as I see evidence for renewed, broad based, dollar-support.

Clink!

(12/24/2003; 17:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114105)

And now for something seasonal ......

http://www.teescustomgolf.com/goldgolfballs.htmlRiding on the course, in a two-man golfing cart,
Hole after hole we go, laughing all the way.
Six packs cool behind, making spirits bright,
What fun it is to ride a nd sing a golfing song tonight !

(Everybody, now....!)

Golden balls, Golden balls, on green or fairway,
Oh what fun it is to drive a ball that's plated gold !
Golden balls, golden balls, not leased or derived too,
Making fun of paper, is such great fun to do !

Merry Christmas, everybody !

Clink! (er that was a glass that time ......)

slingshot

(12/24/2003; 17:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114106)

clink

Ha Ha,

Merry Christmas, clink

Slingshot-----------------<>

slingshot

(12/24/2003; 17:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114107)

Christmas Trivia

What are the names of the Three Wise Men?

Slingshot-------------<>

da2g

(12/24/2003; 18:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114108)

Wise Men

Gaspar, Melchior, Balthasar.

Merry Christmas!

slingshot

(12/24/2003; 18:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114109)

da2g

Three Wise MenCorrect!
Merry Christmas.
Slingshot-----------<>

Goldilox

(12/24/2003; 19:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114110)

No harm meant!

@AgingFast

Gold confiscation is hardly the only topic I post about. If you'll scroll back a few months, I have posted many dozens of messages, most about gold pricing, some more about interesting related news items, and a few about things like confiscation, when I spot activity that suggests it. And, I admit, I sometimes get off topic, as happens, and Admin reels me back in line graciously.

Sir, I only meant "you" as a generational statement, as you had stated yourself to be of an age to have lived through both the depression and gold confiscation. I apologize if you took personal offense. It was only meant to set the stage, so to speak.

I do wish you a grand holiday season.

Goldbug 1

(12/24/2003; 19:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114111)

Christmas in Tibet

Here in Lhasa I am pleased to report that people are buying gold ready to celebrate Losar, the Spring Festival. The word is getting around.

Kilo

(12/24/2003; 20:36:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114112)

Three Wise Men

Where do these names originate from, or where are they found ? Curious.....

Cavan Man

(12/24/2003; 20:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114113)

Kilo

"TRADITION"

Waverider

(12/24/2003; 21:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114114)

Kilo

http://www.catholicherald.com/saunders/97ws/ws971225.htmYou may find this link of interest...Cheers!

eccentricventures

(12/24/2003; 22:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114115)

goldbug1 / christmas in tibet

Are you really in Tibet? (maybe a dumb question). I very much want to visit the homeland of the Dalai Lama. What is the current situation for travelors, if you dont mind my asking? The last I heard was that it could be very problematical to get there. A lot depends on the moods of the various Chinese officials one must deal with, or so I was told.

mikal

(12/25/2003; 00:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114116)

"P's of Gold"

Merry Christmas to all. I hope you enjoy this latest version of my poem which would not be possible without you and this forum. The original can be found in the "Hall of Fame" linked above.

The P's of gold (revised, copyright 2003)

Providing investors protection from nights,
Pointed as sextant guides sailor's sights.

Passed to progeny of metal's faithful folk-
Primordial prosperity none dare revoke.

Preserving proceeds hard-won with pain,
Partitioning true wealth from ill-gotten gain.

Pulsing from prismatic, stellar maternity,
Pretending not to posed, proud fraternity.

Painted with radiance of solar paternity,
Placed on the earth for all but eternity.

Portioned for production of nanotech precision,
Propels our industry and advanced decision.

Prohibits pretense of pro-forma plunder-
Predicting patterns of providential thunder.

God bless.

The CoinGuy

(12/25/2003; 01:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114117)

The Only Time I was glad to see a pop-up ad.

http://www.sh.bank-of-china.com/You don't need to be able to read chinese to understand the message here.

The CoinGuy

Boilermaker

(12/25/2003; 07:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114118)

Three Wise Men

http://www.nogginworks.org/france/balthasar/balthasar.htmlMERRY CHRISTMAS!
I just finished reading last nights discussions of the three wisemen that was very interesting to me because my first, third and fifth great grandfathers were named Balthasar, born in Germany in 1831, 1759 and 1698 respectively.
The link above is a wonderful story of Balthasar written by Anatole France.

admin

(12/25/2003; 11:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114119)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

A Christmas card worth more than a quick glance.

Waverider

(12/25/2003; 12:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114120)

Merry Christmas to All

Wishing everyone the best for the Holiday Season and a Golden New Year full of Peace, Health, and Prosperity. Thank you Sir MK, Sir TownCrier, Sir Gandalf, Sir Black Blade and everyone who participates here for your continued commitment in making this Forum such a special place. Cheers,

Waverider

Agingfast

(12/25/2003; 12:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114121)

It must have been conspirators who have manipulated...

...the month of His birth, the year of His birth and His age at the time the Magi arrived frm Persia (now known as Iran). Few know why His birth was made known to the Persians as well as to the shepherds of Israel.

JavaMan

(12/25/2003; 12:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114122)

Happy Holidays All...

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1385

Hmmm. Looks like a lot of new faces! I wonder if I could have taken a wrong turn somewhere and ended up walking into the wrong castle. It's been a while since I visited (two or three years?) so I thought I would stop by and say hi and maybe share a few thoughts. Perhaps if I stay away for another couple of years, the POG will have gone up another $150 per ounce by the time I return!

Anyway, the last couple of years have been rough ones as I was unemployed for about two out of the last three years. As some of you probably know, unemployment benefits last for twenty-six weeks and, if your lucky, you can get a twelve week extension. After that it starts getting ugly. Things have improved lately though as I had the good fortune to land a contract with the state of North Carolina. Hopefully it will be renewed in April.

The importance of saving simply can't be over emphasized � especially if you are the sole income generator. One tends to appreciate unemployment benefits while they last but the fact of the matter is they aren't enough to live on. I'll tell it like it is, if I didn't have substantial savings to fall back on, I would be living under a bridge somewhere. Hopefully, those nasty circumstances are gone for the foreseeable future but I must admit, as a result of that experience, I find I have a heightened sensitivity (neurosis?) to such events as well as to others that find themselves in that situation and have been less fortunate than myself.

To that end I have posted the link above to an article by Mr. Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. which some of you may have already read. Much of what I read at mises.org seems reasonable if not thought provoking and Mr. Rockwell does a fine job of explaining his point yet I find the message troubling. It's ironic that the link has the text "fullstory" in it as I believe it falls short of communicating "the full story". If it does, then I think we're in a lot of trouble.

From the link: "US companies are not just foregoing certain production processes in order to allow them to be done by the Chinese. Instead, US firms are moving their plants to China, not to sell to the Chinese, but in order to re-import their products into the US to sell.

Is this a uniquely troubling situation? Again, not at all. [javaman note: it is if you just had your house foreclosed!] US business owners have observed a profit opportunity and seized it. The alternative is that US business not notice the opportunity and let others get there first. This would hardly be something to celebrate. It is a testament to the acumen of US businessmen that they can go anywhere in the world, take advantage of local economic conditions and then sell to anyone else in the world. It so happens that American consumers are in a great position to buy the best products from everywhere in the world (so long as their government lets them). Thus do we see the end result of American capital producing for Americans in countries especially suited to host the process, while the US itself hosts ever more sophisticated production."

Taken to its logical conclusion, there will be fewer and fewer "American consumers in a great position to buy the best products from everywhere in the world" because more and more of them will be out of work and positioned to buy nothing.

Further, I would wager that the "ever more sophisticated production" is at the higher end of the job pyramid meaning these kinds of jobs would be relatively fewer in number and available to fewer people. And what's to stop the "ever more sophisticated production" from going overseas as well?

In the US, wages are measured in dollars per hour. In China and India they're measured in dollars per day. Prior to the ninety years of inflation from the Federal Reserve, wages in the US could be measured in dollars per day as well.

Once upon a time it used to be that what was good for General Motors was good for the country because GM created jobs which created wealth. Today, there is a "disconnect" of sorts because as GM does well, jobs are created overseas or in Mexico where they have opened new manufacturing plants. Today, GM can be doing great but there is less correlation to the status of the American worker. As IBM does well, less inference can be made regarding the American worker because it means new jobs in India, not the US.

It's not that we can't or shouldn't compete with these countries in areas of quality of goods produced, we can and we do. It's that we can't compete in terms of value because of the playing field is simply not level and as long as the US dollar maintains its position relative to their currencies, the playing field will never be level. Free trade should also mean that we are free not to trade until the playing field is level. Furthermore, I submit that as long as China, or any other country, uses Child, Slave, and/or Prison labor to produce goods, we have a moral imperative to not trade with them.

Mr. Jason Hommel wrote an interesting article - The U.S. Trade Advantage with China, in which he looks at the benefits of our trade "advantage" with China but he didn't address the associated costs in terms of lost jobs and the cost of lost wealth creation as Americans find themselves living in ghost towns that once used to flourish. The loss of tax revenues on incomes. The lost homes and lost dignity as people discover themselves as deer in the headlights while they watch themselves and their families slowly relegated to third-world style of living or worse.

At the same time, the beneficiaries are the Multi-National corporations and their stock holders, and the newly-employed people in foreign counties. I seem to recall reading that the US doesn't formally declare war anymore because US corporations would have to divest their holdings in the target country. If this is true, one can't help but wonder who is really running our country. And if this is true, then it is easier to understand why the American worker has been sold out and discarded in the name of Free and Fair Trade. Perhaps Mr. Hommel was being subtly tongue-in-cheek and I am simply too dim to see it.

Consider this article�

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031223/tech_techjobs_2.html

From the link: "U.S. corporations are picking up the pace in shifting well-paid technology jobs to India, China and other low-cost centers, but they are keeping quiet for fear of a backlash, industry professionals said�

The problem is that companies aren't sure if it's politically correct to talk about it," said Jack Trout, a principal of Trout & Partners, a marketing and strategy firm. "Nobody has come up with a way to spin it in a positive way."

These people know full well the consequences of what they're doing and they know it's wrong. That's why they want to keep it quiet. It's so obviously wrong there simply is no way to present it in a positive light. Now when have you ever heard that before?

I remember listening to Alan Greenspan in 1999 giving his testimony before Congress urging them to relax visa requirements so more people could come into the US to work so as to relieve the pressure on salaries. If Congress didn't act, he feared he would be unable to control the resulting inflation. I guess 9/11 put the kybosh on that idea so it appears we found an alternative�send the jobs overseas.

Yes, it is different this time. It's different because an enormous transfer of wealth is occurring from the victims of "Free and Fair Trade" in the US to the rest of the world. Ayn Rand said it succinctly � "Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence."

Destroy the base of a moral existence and Mr. Rockwell is absolutely correct to laud that "US business owners have observed a profit opportunity and seized it". And Mr. Hommel is equally justified in his support of the U.S. Trade Advantage with China - no matter how we managed to acquire it.

Who are Rand's "Destroyers"? I suspect the unemployed American worker currently living a life of quiet desperation would really like to know.

Thanks for reading�

javaman

White Hills

(12/25/2003; 15:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114123)

Javaman

I remember you and your posts, shows you how long I have been watching this forum.

Your latest post is very interesting as you discuss free trade and question some of the myths that go along with it. First of all I will agree with the existance of "Free Trade" and the benefits of it but do not agree that this is what is being done at the present time. Trading with another country something they want and don't have for something they have and we want is a far cry from the present system which produces a large trade deficiet and makes us a consumer country much the same as the old colonial system. To my mind all we are doing is destroying are manufacturing ability and transfering wealth to every foreign country we do business with which in the end must bring down our standard of living to what ever level it can fall to.

Javaman, maybe you remember the poster that wrote that "Industry is always destroyed at the point of money creation" It will never stop being destroyed until we stop printing money or the people we are buying from will no longer accept the dollar in payment. Good to hear from you. White Hills

Caradoc

(12/25/2003; 16:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114124)

Agingfast: "Few know...."

With the market closed and with gold as one of the three gifts, it may be permissable to expand on things not well known...

Having three "wisemen" is a good fit if you're manufacturing nativity sets. It corresponds nicely to the number of different gifts and the three names of medieval legend. But nothing says there were only three "wisemen."

As Agingfast pointed out, these "wisemen" were Magi, an interesting group who did a lot more than astrology. True, we get the word magic from Magi, but we also get the word magistrate, indicating a decision-making governmental function. Specifically, history shows that this was a respected group of seers who sometimes served the role of kingmaker.

As for how many Magi, consider that the province of Judea was the Roman frontier. As shown by Pontius Pilate spending the early portion of his tenure as Procurator of Judea from the safety of Rome and actually arriving there only in the year 26 C.E., the geography had only recently been decided to be within the Roman sphere rather than the Parthian. Not likely in my opinion that three of these highly respected magician-magistrates would mount their camels and head East through disputed territory into Roman turf without logistics support and military escort. Whether three Magi or a dozen, make it a party of fifty or more.

Small wonder that the arrival of known kingmakers discomforted King Herod, especially since he was only an Idumean who had been appointed as king and these Magi arrived asking to see the one who was born as king.

If this sort of thing is of interest, Google can lead you to a wealth of information/opinion on the Magi. Going a bit farther afield, asking Google about Pilate and Scotland may keep you busy until the market reopens.

I promise to stay on subject starting tomorrow.

Caradoc

Agingfast

(12/25/2003; 16:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114125)

Caradoc

But you didn't answer the question: Why was His birth made known to the Persians as well as to the Israelites? There was a very good reason, and it wasn't that the Persians were the only ones who had gold coins and bullion in their possession. Wise men in every nation cherished the yellow metal.

R Powell

(12/25/2003; 19:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114126)

Magi and astronomy

Some claim that the Magi knew of the coming birth from the positions of Jupiter and Saturn in the constellation Pisces. Further, they had to know of it many months beforehand as they traveled approx. 700 miles by camel through dangerous territory.
Work for peace.
Rich

1340cc

(12/25/2003; 19:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114127)

Agingfast

While I understand you love to be a burr under the saddle it was "Known to all who would belive".
You are one who enjoys makeing people question everything and trust no one.
Which ain't a bad thing. :-) But damn give it a rest!

Agingfast

(12/25/2003; 20:31:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114128)

1340cc

Ask a question folks can answer and they'll be pleased. Ask a question folks can't answer and they'll be irritated.

Dollar Bill

(12/25/2003; 20:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114129)

*>*

Thanks Jacob Marley, I didnt know Lybia had oil. Small amount? Large? Your name choice is perfect for today !
Sir Belgian, I dont think I am pro dollar actually...anymore I guess, at least here on the forum.
Just fascinated by the whole unfolding study we are having here. Sometimes I post things that have content that is leaning one way or another, but since it all is completely out of my control, the actions and results of the giant financial wrestlers, well, I sit in the audience and cant cheer for any of them. I would design human nature slightly differently from god. Or rather, I would control the devil side differently because I am less fond of struggle than god clearly is.

The wise men? I for years have figured that they, whomever they were, came out of the Inn, found a newborn and young couple in the stables where thier camel or donkey was located, and gave them frankensence and myrhh because it is an insence and the barn stunk ! Gold? well, they gave the young father a little gold so he could provide for his family and maybe buy some tools to be a carpenter.
I dont need any story to add gravitas to what he said and did in his 3 years.
**When Yeshua was 30, his culture, the jewish culture of the day, was eye for eye, stoneing ect. He changed that to turn the other cheek, love your enemy, forgiveness. THAT is huge doings.
**When Yeshua was 30, ONLY the high priest was allowed to go into the holy place in the temple. And that was once a year, and he had a rope tied to his waist so that is god decided to kill him, they could drag his body back.
Jesus(Yeshua) managed to turn that completely on its head.
Every man had a loving god whose commandment was to love god, and others like himself. A judgemental god yes, but not a freaky wierdo. A kind father.
That is a HUGE change and quite a piece of work for 3 years time.
**In addition, the full history of the jewish god, what good stuff was there, was given to the non jews.
That is just gigantic. In 3 years he did this and much more.
Happy Birthday indeed.
I am grateful.

Agingfast

(12/25/2003; 21:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114130)

Dollar Bill

God used Moses -- his Hebrew shepherd -- to make it possible for Israel to leave its years of bondage in Egypt and travel to the promised land but God subsequently used Cyrus, king of Persia -- his GENTILE shepherd (Is. 44:28) -- to make it possible for the faithful remnant of Israel to leave its years of captivity in Babylon and return to the promised land.

Dollar Bill

(12/25/2003; 21:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114131)

*>*............+

Thanks but even some number of Jewish scholars dont see any evidence that the egypt thing ever happened. I dont belive much of the old testament.
The babylon story is another probable fiction.
Dont mean to kill the vibe, just a wheat from the chaff thing.

Paper Avalanche

(12/25/2003; 21:20:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114132)

@ Agingfast - You must be very irritated...

Per your last post......

"Ask a question folks can't answer and they'll be irritated."

You presented a hypothesis that there is a significant and predictable correlation between the fed funds rate and the price of gold.

I stated that said hypothesis was flawed because it relied on data (1970-2003) when the dollar was the reserve fiat currency of the world and that things are changing such that one must anticipate a new relationship between the fed funds rate and the price of gold where the US dollar no longer maintains the staus of world reserve currency.

I asked you to expand your hypothesis to factor in this highly probable change in the dynamics of international finance.

You can't answer my question. You must be irritated.

As others have said previously, it would be a waste and a shame if some posters drive away other posters due to a lack of understanding and / or tolerance. I do not wish to drive you away. You are very intelligent. I simply wish to understand the crux of your hypothesis to incororpate the impending change in international financial markets that is occurring as we speak.

Merry Christmas!

Paper Avalanche

Jacob Marley

(12/25/2003; 21:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114133)

Dollar Bill - Libya Oil

DB - how much is there? A fair bit - about 30 bn barrels proven reserves, mostly low-sulfur "sweet" crude. Currently produces 1+ mln bbl/d. Used to (70s) produce around 3 mln bbl/d. Crummy politics screwed up their infrastructure, and external sanctions also hurt their industry. Mostly export to Europe. If the US/UK axis can somehow channel that production into their axis -- and on $ terms, well imho, they begin to secure these pockets of production (on $ terms), 10 mln/d from a full running Iraq, 2 mln/d from Nigeria, a couple mln more from Libya, pretty soon this all adds up to some real energy. The game plan for the US as I see it is to weedle and cobble together as many barrels a day as they can from sources that they believe they can keep the purchase currency in dollars. They own Iraq now. They are staying abreast of things in west Africa. Now they appear to want to strong arm Libya. Will all or any of this work? Who knows? It is likely that Iraq will eventually produce near capacity for a very reasonable dollar price. The others depend on how and what kind of strategy they deploy.

Why did Libya 'fess up all of a sudden? Who knows the real reasons. Is it some kind of gambit on Khaddafi's part? I don't know. Did Bush's wholesale reversal of US policy in Taiwan, buy him some bargaining power, and did the Chinese stir the pot, and force Khaddafi's hand? Who knows? Who can speculate on why with any real certainty? All we know are the little bits of outward details. So, who benefits? I am intrigued by Belgian's cryptic statement (at least I found it cryptic): "What if Libya wishes to come under the building euro-umbrella, through hypocrite dollar flattery ? Very little often does NOT seems what it really is."

I personally take very serious consideration of the things Belgian says, and in this case, I'm just not sure I follow. So, if Belgian happens to read this, may I request good Sir, that you expound on this point for my feeble mind. TIA! Libya is very europe export centered. They (thanks to US sanctions over the Lockerbie thing) had all remaining US oil involved presence exit the country. While subsequently these US concerns wished to consider returning, Libya had hinted that they may court European firms to come and pick up the pieces. I don't follow this closely, so I don't know what is currently going on, but those are the headlines. Basically, as I see it US strategy has through an inimical stance to Libya forced Libya's exports mostly to Europe. It would be a natural thing to want to negotiate their product for the European currency. That is why it seems that the US, if given an opportunity to get a foot in the door, would want to secure Libya's high quality oil product to be exchanged in USD. Part of the contingency for a strong dollar devaluation is the need to obtain oil inexpensively. If all this oil suddenly goes for euros, and the US must buy it in euros, the cost goes through the roof. This kind of contingency already sees the end of the USD as an international reserve, btw. This level of planning is simply securing as many bbls/day that can be bought with dollars to just feed US consumption, and help avoid an economic disaster at home.

So, I am very interested to hear B's take on how this might be a Khaddafi strategy to help it come under the "euro-umbrella" through some kind of deception.

Paper Avalanche

(12/25/2003; 22:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114134)

@ Jacob Marley

Thank you for the insight regarding the possible Libya play by the dollar faction. Your post was very educational to me and makes perfect sense. The dollar faction realizes that world reserve currency status is no longer in the cards and that sustainable energy resources must be secured prior to complete dollar devaluation.

It is good to see you posting again.

Happy holidays!

PA

Dollar Bill

(12/25/2003; 22:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114135)

*>*.............-l-

Sir Jacob Marley, I would like to take one of Sir Begians comments and stretch it in another direction. He wonders if Lybia is playing the US/Brits one way, while planning another way for just down the road.
I wonder if the US is telling Lybia the same thing it seems it has told the Saudi's. That the dollar will be getting strong again before too long. So dont move to the euro and lose money and disrupt other economic things.
I wonder if the US is just leading them on while planning a weak dollar for quite a while into the future.
Then, someday when the Saudis or whomever is about to switch, after being held off as long as possible, the fed raises rates. And not till that very last moment.
With the Japanese standing there with infinite yen to support the US loan needs, when would Greenspan say it was time to raise rates? Only when forced I would guess.

Au-some

(12/25/2003; 22:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114136)

Dec. 25, 2003

Merry Christmas to ALL! Thanks for the posts...
Agingfast, Daniel clued them.

Agingfast

(12/25/2003; 22:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114137)

Paper Avalanche

I pointed out the wonderful and largely unnoticed FACT that the price of gold and the fed funds rate peak and trough at about the same time. You presented a hypothetical proposition -- something that is NOT A FACT at present -- one of many possible "what ifs" -- and I said I don't comment on hypotheticals. Because I like to keep things simple, I offered members of this forum a simple timing tool and I couldn't care less (or as the illiterate say, I could care less) whether that valuable piece of information is accepted or rejected. I could have launched into a complex explanation of why restrictive management of the demand side of the US economy also restricts the supply side (the problem in the 1970s) and why stimulative management of the demand side of the US economy also stimulates the supply side (the problem more recently) but I stopped presenting long explanations when I gave up getting paid for them.

Caradoc

(12/25/2003; 22:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114138)

Agingfast & Dollar Bill (last on Magi)

Well, it's still the holiday so just a bit more....

AF: Various cultures in the Middle East looked forward to the birth of a special child. Whether the Magi thought of their background as Mede (most likely, according to the Catholic Encyclopedia)) or Persian (less likely) or as something else, the most straightforward explanation for their awareness traces back several hundred years to the Babylonian Captivity during which time Nebu Chad N'zar (Nebuchadnezzar) promoted Daniel to be head of the Magi. Could be that the Magi maintained a tradition from Daniel himself or that they were descended from those who listened to Nebuchadnezzar's two proclamations that all men were to honor Daniel's God. Or, could be that they were descended from Jews who remained in Babylon after the captivity ended. If you have a specific idea on this, I'd like to hear it.

DB: Yes, with the veil rent from top to bottom our access is far superior to those who stood outside, listened to the bells on the hem of the High Priest's garment, and stood ready -- if need be -- to pull him out by the rope tied to his ankle. Since the price that was paid for this open access was sufficient ("telestai" translated as "it is finished" also meant "paid in full"
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=+%22paid+in+full%22+%22it+is+finished%22+telestai ), nothing needs to be added to the story.

Must point out, though, that even if it's only "icing on the cake," sometimes varying the icing makes the cake more appealing to a particular audience. For example, those who respect the first ten patriarchs -- Adam through Noah -- may be approached with "hidden message" in the names of those ten men:
http://www.khouse.org/articles/biblestudy/19960201-44.html

Caradoc

Paper Avalanche

(12/25/2003; 22:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114139)

@ Agingfast - Eliminating hypotheticals

I agree entirely that speculating on hypotheticals is foolish and I respect your position to not do so. However, I cannot help but wonder (and you have yet to disclose) if you believe that the US dollar will remain the world reserve currency in the coming years. If it will forever be the world reserve currency then your hypothesis has merit.

In order to keep things simple for you (and to not deal in hypotheticals) I put to you the following:

Is it your opinion that the US dollar will remain the world reserve currency for the next twenty years?

Thanks!

Paper Avalanche

Dollar Bill

(12/25/2003; 22:52:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114140)

*>*

Sir Caradoc, You said; "Must point out, though, that even if it's only "icing on the cake," sometimes varying the icing makes the cake more appealing to a particular audience".
I respectfully agree. Also, did check out your link, and wish you enjoyable research and inspiration.
For further fun, might I reccomend the sayings of Mother Theresa, A Testament of Devotion by Tom Kelley, and the writings of Larry the Cook. Some call him St Lawrence.
Merry Christmas and Good Night.

Belgian

(12/26/2003; 03:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114141)

@Jacob Marley

The original map of Euroland, includes the Mediterranian bassin, including N.Africa (Libya). Italy, Spain and France, have the natural responsability to organise Euroland's expansion around the Mediterranian bassin. (Italy + Spain courted by the US !). And in order to become a reserve currency, the euro needs to become the oil currency.
The Khadaffi stunt could make the Libyan oil-dessert, "salon-fehig" (an acceptable nation-political correct) for the US and Euroland as well. Always remember that Euroland has very little oil (Northsea-reserves) and is *extremely* dependant on reliable oil flows !!! Much more so than the US. That's why Euroland wants to expand its global trade against the oil/gas-resources with those places where the future oil/gas-reserves are located. And guess what...Euroland wants to trade in its own euro-currency.

Dollar and euro are competing to obtain the resources' favors. Both currencies ($-�) are doing this differently : $-military might and �-stability.
This same competitive process is happening in Russia and Central Asia. Soon, regions like Sudan (and others) will come more on the forefront. Sudanese oil-reserves have already been reserved for and by the Chinese (and allies).

It is the $-� competition that stands in the way for the "Internationalization" of the Iraqi (Middle East) problem !!!

It is all about the remaining oil/gas reserves (and their pipeline corridors) AND two currencies ($-�). The Gold factor, moves stealthly, in the deep cross currents. The religious fundamentalisms and respective terror are the maskerade for public consumption.

Buongiorno!

(12/26/2003; 08:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114142)

Sir Belgian, re: Euroland expansion

Most interesting post, and I agree with much of what you propose. The Momar Man's "stunt" may be the beginning of reality for some of the Middle East Crazies--who knows, we can only hope.

Let me open a Pandora's box with a question. Why can the world not have two reserve currencies? Recent history has evolved one currency for the most part, but why not two? Trade levels have expanded greatly--surely there is room? Competition might even serve to resolve some of the abuses so well documented at this forum. All that seems to be required is a willing buyer and a willing seller and a pricing mechanism.

Did I take a wrong turn on this? If so, where?

To our gracious host, and all gathered here: "Buon Principio, Buon finalmente, e' Buon Anno Nuovo!

Chin-Chin---ting!

Jacob Marley

(12/26/2003; 08:58:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114143)

Belgian - Libya

You say - The Khadaffi stunt could make the Libyan oil-dessert, "salon-fehig" (an acceptable nation-political correct) --- Yes, exactly!! Got it. Thank you!

Clink!

(12/26/2003; 09:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114144)

Now that is a strange looking chart !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=iI don't think I can remember ever having seen this before. It looks like there is a solid block at $413.7-ish and a repeated attempts to push it waaaaay down to $410.50. Is this volatility real, or is it INO going haywire ?
C!

Dollar Bill

(12/26/2003; 09:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114145)

*>*

http://www.city-journal.org/html/12_4_the_barbarians.htmlSir Belgian, does this link, and its analysis of French cultural problems, sound about right to you?
Small wonder the Air France flights were canceled. What a mess there. My guess is that any flight target might include, well, as you all know perhaps, California is completely filled with cities and towns named saint this, saint that, city of angels ect. The one place called Devil anything, is Devils Canyon, along a earthquake fault line by the way, and they put a nuclear power plant there.
A jet into Diablo Canyon nuke plant, if it triggered a meltdown, that would mess up the entire US.

Waverider

(12/26/2003; 09:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114146)

Gold shines in Asia

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,8261015%255E664,00.html27dec03

"GOLD hit eight-year highs in Asia yesterday as continuing violence in Iraq and fears about terror attacks in the US bolstered safe haven investments. Spot gold hit $US413.15 an ounce in Asian trade � a level not seen since February 1996. Trading was subdued with the US, London and Australian markets closed until Monday."

Waverider

(12/26/2003; 10:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114147)

Dollar Brushes Against Record Lows V Euro

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20031226&ID=3240655"The dollar was softer on Friday, brushing against recent record lows against the euro and probing two-week lows against the yen on persistent worries about geopolitical risks and a bulging U.S. current account deficit. Still, a lack of momentum in thin post-Christmas trade and wariness of intervention by Japanese authorities prevented the dollar from plunging to new lows against the euro and retesting three-year lows set against the yen earlier this month. ``Basically, you can see that there is no change to the dollar's downtrend,'' said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo."

Waverider: Should be interesting Monday when the markets open!

Goldilox

(12/26/2003; 11:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114148)

Diablo Canyon and US power generating reactors

@ Dollar Bill

I worked in the nuclear energy industry during the time Diablo Canyon was built. Unlike inhabited buildings, nuclear containment vessels are designed to withstand much more impact than an airliner could produce. In addition to that, any large Richter scale anomaly will immediately scram the control rods, essentially shutting down the core's chain reaction. Meltdown is only an issue in the minds of tree-huggers, as there is no physical correlation between DC and Chernobyl.

Finally, the above ground portion of the dome at DC is very much smaller than any skyscraper and very low to ground, so it would be a very difficult target to hit with anything but intelligent guided munitions.

When the Isrealis bombed Iraq's reactor, they used fighters armed with the best laser guided bombs and their finest pilots in order to get the job done. Anything less than a fully armed fighter or bomber would be totally ineffective.

Should we be any less vigilant? Of course not, but the scenario you suggested is physically very improbable.

Liberty Head

(12/26/2003; 11:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114149)

Concerns Rising

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30802-2003Dec25.htmlsnipit:
Foreigners bought $27.6 billion more U.S. stocks, bonds and other assets than they sold to Americans in October, a 560 percent leap from the $4.2 billion the month before, according to the Treasury Department. And that surge came just as dollar fears were coming into focus.

Jes Black, a currency strategist at MG Financial Group, a currency trading firm in New York, said copper and gold are trading at eight-year highs, and the precious metal palladium is at a 23-year high. That is evidence, he said, that foreigners may be selling dollar-denominated assets such as stocks and bonds and buying more durable commodities. Earlier this month, the Saudi Arabian oil minister suggested that OPEC raise the price of dollar-denominated oil because the international price of oil has been hammered by the weak dollar.

"Why do people want to keep buying the dollar?" Black asked. "It's been living off the vapors of its past credibility. This is mass psychology, and once everyone agrees there's a problem, there's a problem."

-------------------

We are ruled by crooked thespians, stage sets and fiat currencies.
Our gold is our acknowledgement that we are willing to face the world beyond the theater walls.

Best Wishes

Cytek

(12/26/2003; 12:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114150)

Here comes POG $420 and then some

I think we will see SPOT jump on Monday, look's like the PM's are showing us this today. Looks to me the Japanese are selling more US treasuries and buying more foreign curriences. And in the mean time this raises the yen debt ceiling limits by trillions just to continue too intervene in the currency markets. You have to wonder how this is affecting the currency derivatives against the dollar,it must be huge.

Merry Chistmas everyone and a shinny mettalic New Year.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/26/2003; 13:05:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114151)

A complete gold education in 175 pages for only $5.95

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

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"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Belgian

(12/26/2003; 13:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114152)

@DB : Know France relatively well Sir and will sound the alarm on the forum, if and when there really is a serious reason for worry. But I'm not excluding manufactured, nasty and compromising tricks by an International third party.

@Buongiorno : Two reserve currencies is what we have already. Central banks, progressively exchanging dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. For as long as the Unfree Gold market remains contained, the dollar-reserve profits from sufficient global support. When Gold breaks Free with the euro fiat as numeraire, the dollar will lose the bulk of its reserve status.

Off to the snow and slide into the new Year. Happy New Year to all.

Kilo

(12/26/2003; 13:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114153)

Liberty Head - RE: Jes Black

Methinks Mr. Black has his metals mixed up, platinum and palladium, the later of which is far from being at 25 year highs of late 2000-2001 (somewhere north of $1050 at that time).

Regards

specie-man

(12/26/2003; 14:00:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114154)

Look what China is doing now

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=39466⁢em=2212488908This particular seller is from Singapore, but I've seen many of these for sale from Hong Kong lately.

It used to be Japan, but now it is China that is counterfeiting US/European goods on a massive scale - CDs, movies, watches, sprinkler heads, etc., etc.
And no one (in the Government) seems to care.

And now Asia (probably China) is mass-producing replicas of United States legal tender currency (common Morgan "silver" dollars in this case - although I doubt that they are actually made of silver). And still no one seems to care, even though this particular item violates several US laws. The last leg under the "strong dollar policy" was the anti-counterfeiting measures. It seems that leg is about to fall off.

Liberty Head

(12/26/2003; 14:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114155)

RE: Kilo RE: Jes Black

Kilo,

Thanks for catching the mix up. In fairness to Jes Black, the mix up may belong to the Washington Post. I would certainly hope a currency strategist would know more than a staff writer, but who knows?

Best Wishes

Goldilox

(12/26/2003; 15:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114156)

Ebay Counterfeit coins

Interesting - not only do they report themselves as counterfeit, they do not say anything about silver anywhere in the add.

Obviously, I would stay very far away from this purchase. Some of the fallout might include wasted assets and perhaps even a short vacation in a federal detention facility. Iwonder how they get away with this on Ebay? Is there some loophole about conterfeiting ithat makes it OK if it is not trying to pass itself off as real?

NO THANKS!

Want the real thing - call a reputable dealer like, say, CPM?

CoBra(too)

(12/26/2003; 16:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114157)

Year End Musings ...

It's been a fairly good year for gold. At least vis a vis the US dollar and in a dollar centric world, that should tell us something.

Of course, no-one can imagine another system at this stage, nor is anyone ready to torpedo the status quo outright. Or is there?

I guess there are forces building out there in the world, which may not so much care about the present system of a US centric reserve currency. Countries, which have been depraved too long from equal opportunities. Countries raped for their resources on the cheap by the US and lackeys as the WB and IMF.

"The West", including Japan is still limping along to support a broken system, though the EU may have a introduced an interim solution, the �. In the final analysis "interim" may be correct to describe it.

In the end and in a globalized world there is merely a billion people profiting from the system of imperialism. A system, the founding fathers of the US have abhorred, though their successors have succumbed to.

There are another 5 plus billion people in the world now, eager to reap their own rewards of their labor - and they will. Is it Chinese, Indians or Muslims, they'll go for gold to insure the value of their labor is passed on over generations. That's Terror - terror on a an unfair system.

And while the West is hunkering down on anti-terror measures, see Homeland and Patriot Acts, getting more incumbered by the day - the land of the brave and the free is moving to the East.

... And as an aside it doesn't even make a dent in the full fact sheet of another broken system if the FED copes with short term fixes of whatever markets, be it Repo's, IR's, MZM's or idiotic mumblings from "Sir" AG and consorts.

You ain't seen nothing, yet! As an old US colloquial states.

Gold will from here on appreciate massively against all paper currencies! No paper currency is and ever was immune to beggar your neighbour politics. And that's what I'm seeing. Competitive devaluations will be the game of tomorrow!

Gold? - Gold will just stay the same and preserve its value and buying power as long as mankind may exist on this globe.

Have a happy 2004 - cb2

TownCrier

(12/26/2003; 17:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114158)

Gold up in Int'l market

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=49243MUMBAI,DEC 26: �Pure gold firmed up further to cross the psychological level of Rs 6,200 per ten gram to close at Rs 6,205 per 10 gram on the bullion market here on Friday due to hectic buying in the face of thin supply.

Closure of the international markets for long Christmas holidays caused steep fall in supply which also helped prices to shoot up, traders said.

Pure gold (99.9 purity) opened firm at Rs 6,200 and rose further to close at a new high of Rs 6,205, showing a gain of Rs 15 over Thursday's close.
------(from url)-----

Gold enters the weekend on a strong note, now at $413.74 according to INO. As we take a trip down memory lane, prices in the $300 now seem distant, and the period in the upper $200 but a dream.

On the surface this move has seemed orderly. Has it been TOO orderly to rouse attention and inspire the masses to flock into the market? That is the way it works. Have you the presence of mind and the will to see your way clear and act decisively? Position yourself for a brighter future with gold in your portfolio. The trading staff at USAGOLD-Centennial can help. Give them a call next week and start your new year on firm footing.

R.

Dollar Bill

(12/26/2003; 18:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114159)

'..'

Sir GOLDilox, thanks for the info and the relief about nuke plants. Here is another view of the Japanese issue we have been talking about since Magister Aurelius alerted us.

"The point about Japan was this countries economy never faltered, as one would believe a country in a financial depression would falter. Unemployment in Japan never reached what a slowdown produces in the United States, a minimum of 6%. Instead, prices kept falling despite the Bank of Japan feeding yen into the system and the Japanese government spending itself out of its AAA credit rating. Credit worthy corporations on the other hand were most likely using this next to zero cost money to continue to modernize and create even stronger downward pressure on finished goods prices. Instead of curing the problem, the lower rate structure of the Japanese central bank merely softened the landing, but prolonged the problem.

Until one plays with financial numbers, they will never gain insight into how the process of leveraging assets turns to a systematic de-leveraging of assets. As asset price grow, they provide more and more market value to create money from, but once they reach their limits, the mathematical equation reverses itself and a deflation occurs. I am sure that Japan lost some liquidity from the slowdown in the rest of the world in the late 1980's and the rest was history. Once it started, it was forced to go on because the money assets to float that much credit and inflated equity just wasn't available and couldn't be if the idea of a credit medium of value was to be continued.

Today, Japan is threatening the very idea of capitalism and capital markets by an aggressive devaluation of the yen. One way or another they are determined to get enough liquidity in the system to support itself. Recent reports have mentioned authorization to float as much as $1 trillion on yen to keep the trade accounts churning and hopefully putting enough species in the market to reverse the deflationary trend they have been in for over a decade now. I believe the entire process they are using threatens to deflate the entire world and the inflow of foreign currency hasn't solved their problem for a decade, so why now?

While the Japanese are issuing more yen, they are doing so by buying dollars. The United States itself is faced with the end of productive activity in the country due to excessive credit and high asset values and the very idea the Japanese are depriving the United States of needed species to service the debts of the country is frightening. Central banks can print money and don't have to pay their bills, so the purchasing of American credit is done with basically little cost to the Japanese bankers. Still, those that have the dollars convert them to yen and it is American liabilities that are being accepted in Japan, liabilities that depend on the very currency that is being purchased in Japan to be paid. In this manner, Japan may actually deflate itself more by attempting to inflate itself."

Dollar Bill

(12/26/2003; 18:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114160)

'/ '

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chen083103.html"Let us translate those numbers into plain language. The condition at 2023 will be as follows: American net worth will shrink substantially by 2023, but an average American citizen will live in an estate home built with money borrowed from Japan, will drive Japanese made luxury automobiles purchased with the money borrowed from Japan, and will dine daily in high class restaurants and charge the expense on credit cards which are again financed with the money borrowed from Japan. At that time US will become a virtual society, as discussed in Section 5, without any manufacturing base. US Federal Reserve System will become the agent of Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore who collectively hold 18 trillion dollar worth of claims on US. On the other side of the Pacific, Japan will become the richest nation on earth according to its national account balance, but an average Japanese will be peddling bicycles instead of driving automobiles, a Japanese family will be clamped into a 300 square feet apartment, and an average meal of Japanese citizen will return to a box of white rice with a red preserved plum sitting in the middle of the box, a typical diet of Japanese during the World War II. Japanese Government will be more occupied in managing 9.0 trillion US dollar located in US than to be bothered with running a meager 2.7 trillion Dollar Japanese domestic economy. If we think such a picture is too ridiculous to be true, then we must conclude that US Dollar will suffer a catastrophic collapse, the runaway US trade deficit will be curbed, and US economy will sink into a depression on the way to 2023.
Dr. Chih Kwan Chen

Dollar Bill

(12/26/2003; 18:55:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114161)

. , .

Another Japanese view.
"The core of the capital pool is the savings of the major lender of the world, Japan. Speculators may cause short term deviations of this flow of capital but have no power of changing its direction for long. It is the authority at the source of this capital pool that is responsible in shaping and directing the long term trend of this flow.
The roles of imports and exports need to be examined carefully, because the amount of capital outflow from Japan equals her current account trade surplus. If this surplus increases, so does the capital outflow, and as a result Japan becomes poorer, not richer as many people claim erroneously. How does this misconception about the international trade come about? It is due to the careless reading of the way gross domestic production (GDP) is calculated. GDP equals the personal consumption plus the change of inventories, add fixed investments, minus imports and plus exports. It is the last two entries which lead many to think that imports are negative and exports are positive to GDP. However, those people are forgetting about the effects of imports and exports on personal consumption. When these effects are included, imports contribute positively and exports contribute negatively to GDP. This is why Japan sinks into a deeper and deeper recession as her trade surplus balloons, whereas The United States of America becomes increasingly prosperous as her trade deficit explodes. It is only when the currency of the excessive importer collapses, its economy will sink into a recession and the trade pattern will be reversed. If policies are adopted to uphold the value of the currency of the excessive importer, the anomaly that the excessive importer becomes richer and the excessive exporter becomes poorer can indeed continue for a long time as it is now playing out in front of our eyes."

Cytek

(12/26/2003; 20:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114162)

Here's a good article from Adam Hamilton

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton122603.htmlLook at the POG through different currencies. The bottom line is that our gold bull to date that looks so darned impressive in US dollar terms does not look quite the same when viewed through the lenses of other major currencies. Depending on the degree of dollar weakness relative to other currencies, the predominant local-currency gold-bull trend today can look much weaker, flat, or even slightly negative. While it is definitely hard for us who grew up in a dollar-dominated world, we American investors must strive to understand how this gold bull looks from around the globe, not just in the States.

Goldbug 1

(12/26/2003; 20:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114163)

TIBET - Eccentricventures

Read your post of a few days ago. Yes I really am in Lhasa.
No problem getting here nowdays. In Kunming you see Mr Chen, Room 3116 at the Camellia Hotel on Dongfeng Donglu He gets the ticket for Yuan 2650 of which Yuan1000 is for a (probably) non existent "Permit for Tibet". No other way to book a ticket through the regular channels.
Great here at this cold time of the year as the Nomads are arriving in town to celebrate Losar on Jan 21st.
Hoping/expecting gold to rise in January to help pay for my trip. Gold really seems to be in a bull market only in US$ terms I think its really a bear market in the Dollar.
In my money (Australian) gold is now lower in price than it was earlier in the year. Tashi Delek.

mdgc

(12/26/2003; 21:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114164)

Goldbug 1 - Tibet permit

I�ll bet your in one of those 5 rmb per hour internet storefronts near the Jokhang Temple.

I believe that the Tibet permit is a real one. In April 2002 when I travelled to Tibet from Chengdu, it was at the Tibet Hotel where Ms. Chen Xiaohua handled the paperwork.

There is a lot of gold in some of the big stupas at the Deprung Monastery in Lhasa and Tashilhunpo in Shigatse.

In a small way the recent rise in gold has reminded me a bit of December 1979. That was followed by the spike to $850 in early 1980. Gold just kept on going up for weeks with no pause.

I think way gold may run to the $430 to $440 range before we see a correction early in 2004. But this peak will be broken again before spring.

Waverider

(12/27/2003; 00:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114165)

Economic Outlook: Dollar will plunge if Asian banks bail out

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=106345"Many factors can influence the short-term value of a currency, from stock market volatility to political turmoil to trade disputes. But over the longer term, only two things really matter � the size of the US financial position with the rest of the world � in America's case, a very large deficit � and the willingness of foreigners to finance it. In the 1990s, Europeans were investing in private US assets that supported growth in the economy. Today, Europeans have pulled back, replaced by Asian central banks buying US government bonds to finance the budget shortfall. In effect, productive investment has been replaced by deficit financing. Over the next few months, some of those European investors may jump back into the US market, but concerns over the large deficits will give them pause. At the same time, Asian central banks may reduce their huge dollar investments: they have purchased US dollars mainly to hold down the value of their own currencies, a strategy that is not sustainable. The greater worry for US officials is not a shift in new investment away from the dollar but a more basic decision by foreign investors to reduce their huge stock of investment in the US. The more the dollar slides, the less their investments are worth, the more likely they are to withdraw en masse. If that were to happen, the dollar would collapse, taking with it the US economy."

Waverider: The continued plunge of the US$ into the abyss is an inevitability, with or without (unsustainable) Japanese intervention. I get a price objective of 70 for the USDX, but many TA experts I read are estimating 60. It's interesting even to see suggestions of a dollar collapse in the mainstream Arab media.

Caradoc

(12/27/2003; 03:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114166)

Another straw on the camel's back

Lower US beef sales are said to approximate $6 billion and we're hearing trial balloons to the effect that the beef industry should receive "assistance just like the airline industry after 9 11." It's interesting to note the lack of distinction between economic loss literally resulting from an attack out of the blue on 9 11 and economic loss that was bound to happen sooner or later. In any event, 6 billion less on the income side and 6 billion more on the non-productive expense side adds up to bad news for the dollar.

My extrapolation of posts by Waverider and Mgdc is that, with USDX headed lower, gold moves within a matter of weeks to the 430ish level without much/any consolidation. There's a little movement in the opposite direction -- gold down, dollar up -- as the dollar bounces off USDX support at .82. It only bounces only once so the correction lasts no longer than 2 1/2 days before the dollar breaks through its .82 support level headed lower while gold spikes in the opposite direction.

So, January and part of February to get to some number between 425 and 435. Then, a bad day or two before gold heads toward 500. None of which will graph as much of an increase if charted in the currencies of Europe, Canada, Asia, or Australia.

The good news is that as gold approaches 500, a certain number of investors will reluctantly begin to follow their advisors' words about putting 5% of their portfolios into gold. The resulting demand should chart nicely even in the strongest of currencies, encouraging more mainstream investors to see the wisdom of the 5% route to portfolio protection. At this point, the popular press will begin to speculate about whether gold will surpass previous high in the low 800s. While standing in line at the grocery store, some percentage of shoppers scanning the first page of the National Enquirer will decide to buy below 800 and some above 800. The traditional "dumb money" will be waiting in the wings to buy their two or three ounces at or slightly above the $1000 mark. What's funny is that even "dumb money" will end up doing well as the world looks for a way to put a price tag on the yellow metal.

Caradoc

PS: We get to read a lot of things here long before they show up in mass media with the most obvious recent example being Black Blade's assessments of pending natural gas situation. For what it's worth, my crystal ball says that as early as 2010 and no later than 2015 it will have been smart to swap some of your gold for a reliable supply of drinking water.

Boilermaker

(12/27/2003; 07:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114167)

Gold Derivatives: Hitting the Iceberg

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary26.html#anchor25233Forgive me if this has already been posted but the subject article by Reg Howe is an up-to-date summary of the gold derivative situation. At the end of the article Reg finishes with the following paragraph that reflects my own thoughts:

"The gold community has prospered more than most over the past year. And having endured years of oppression by government, not to mention ridicule by establishment figures of all stripes and colors, gold bugs have earned the right to enjoy their good fortune. But real gold bugs are not profiteers. They are freedom fighters. For them, securing their own financial survival and that of their families is important but not sufficient, for they dream of a world in which gold is again the international monetary num�raire and where all peoples and nations meet on a level economic playing field characterized by free markets and an absence of malignant government intervention."

Boilermaker

Paper Avalanche

(12/27/2003; 07:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114168)

Mad Cow - Inflation Control?

I just read on yahoo that beef sales (exports) will likely fall around 90% as a result of the mad cow scare. Basic economics tells me that this will negatively impact the domestic price of beef as a glut of cattle that is unable to be exported is dumped on the US market. Bearing in mind that beef prices have gone up 80+% this year alone and knowing how the mass media routinely serves as a vehicle to affect markets, is it a stretch to imagine that the mad cow scare was intentionally released so as to deliberately lower the cost of beef, and in doing so, contain general price "inflation" a while longer? I cannot help but think that even Joe Six Pack was catching on to the scam every time he went to Mc Donalds and saw the price of his quarter pounder go up on a weekly basis over the past twelve months.

This may be far fetched, but it is amazingly convenient if you are trying to contain the general perception of inflation in the economy IMO.

Food for thought (no pun intended).

Paper Avalanche

mikal

(12/27/2003; 08:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114170)

@Lady Waverider

Re: "I get a price objective of 70 for the USDX, but many TA experts I read have 60." I think that as these levels are approached, maybe 50, the fall will be so rapid that the index will change or be shelved.
I agree with the premise of the article you posted that Asian banks could precipitate a "collapse" of the dollar. Before it does though, a golden-skinned stand-in may be led up from the underground laboritories of Dr. Fed at the behest of his overseas consultants.
A few days back there was an exceptional post here, reminding us of the accelerating US money supply over the years, especially since 1950. At the present EXPONENTIALLY increasing rate- essential to float the world economy, US reserve currency and international payments system- the money supply would need to be doubled again in 2004 or 2005 in a matter of a couple months, then a couple of weeks, then a couple of days, but I say it's toast if it's not replaced (or renovated) by THAT time or sooner, 2004 or early 2005.

NEMO me impune lacessit

(12/27/2003; 09:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114172)

Greetings

From me ("the wishor") to you ("the wishee").

Please accept without obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, politically correct, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral, celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practised within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all.

I wish you a financially successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2004, but with due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures or sects, and having regard to the race, creed, colour, age, physical ability, religious faith, choice of computer platform or sexual preference of the wishee.

By accepting this greeting you are bound by these terms that:- This greeting is subject to further clarification or withdrawal.

This greeting is freely transferable provided that no alteration shall be made to the original greeting and that the proprietary rights of the wishor are acknowledged.

This greeting implies no promise whatsoever by the wishor to actually implement any of the wishes.

This greeting may not be enforceable in certain jurisdictions and/or the restrictions herein may not be binding upon certain wishes in certain jurisdictions and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wishor.

This greeting is warranted to perform as reasonably may be expected within the usual application of good tidings, for a period of one year or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first.

The wishor warrants this greeting only for the limited replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wishor.

Any references in this greeting to "the Lord", "Father Christmas", "Our Saviour", "Rudolph the red nosed reindeer" or any other festive figures, whether actual or fictitious, dead or alive, shall not imply any endorsement by or from them in respect of this greeting, and all proprietary rights in any referenced third party names and images are hereby acknowledged and all due clearances and consents of the same have been diligently obtained.

This greeting is made under Swedish Law and shall be interpreted, construed and governed by the laws of Sweden.

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY 2004!
Love (whether actual, implied, inferred, explicit or ostensible)

Tore Carolusson (aka NEMO)

SWEDEN

a nation of one

(12/27/2003; 09:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114173)

To msglory (12/27/03; 08:15:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114169)

If you bought in May for 89, and can sell now for 97, that
is an annual rate of nearly 17%. If you're not pleased with
17% in this economy, you are excessively greedy. Of course,
if you don't mind polluting the world with cigarette smoke
and participating in the spread of lung cancer, and
contributing to other people's misery, you can probably
make even more money. But then the question really comes
down to, "Why don't you just sell cocaine?" There's a lot
of money in that.

For those who care about what their money does to the
quality of life on this planet, perhaps the most relevant
action they can take is to secure the preseveration of
their own wealth in a way that doesn't contribute to the
destruction of human existence. Buying gold is one way they
can do this. Buying tobacco stocks seems more like
investing in the activities of professional poisoners.

Druid

(12/27/2003; 09:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114174)

mikal (12/27/03; 08:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114170)

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/theend.html

Druid: Mikal, I hope this is what you are referring too? And yes, this is the scariest graph I've ever come across. It pretty much sums it all up. I kind of enjoy doing my own real time real world experiments to gather a little data of my own. When I show this graph to the average business student, I have to use a lot of words to try and explain what it represents, and after doing so, I can easily discern that there is no understanding taking place. When I show this to a highly technical type, (Engineer, Architect types) and after watching their eyes pop out, I get this solemn look with very few questions. The rate of change and order of magnitude of debt is out of control and pretty much dictating the overall trend in anything financial, economic or political. Runaway debt is the causation variable and everything else is just buying TIME.

Great Albino Bat

(12/27/2003; 11:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114175)

Just picked this up....

http://english.eastday.com/epublish/gb/paper1/1128/class000100001/hwz174960.htm

Shnaghai Daily News reports freeing up of gold imports and exports of whatever nature, as of Jan 1 2004

Sounds very positive.

The GAB

Cytek

(12/27/2003; 12:07:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114176)

And i thought all the crooks were on wallstreet

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031227/food_parmalat_11.htmlParmalat Ruled Insolvent as Probe Widens
Saturday December 27, 12:49 pm ET
By Svetlana Kovalyova and Nelson Graves

MILAN/PARMA (Reuters) - A bankruptcy court declared Parmalat (Milan:PRFI.MI - News) insolvent on Saturday and the group's founder was called for questioning as authorities widened a fraud probe into billions of missing euros at Italy's biggest food firm.

The court in the northern city of Parma ruled that Parmalat's main operating arm was insolvent in a decision that will allow the global group to continue operations while restructuring and sorting out debts, judicial sources said.

The court near Parmalat's headquarters took the decision three days after Italy's eighth largest industrial group filed for bankruptcy protection under an emergency government decree.

One of Europe's biggest corporate scandals exploded last week when Parmalat, with 35,000 employees in some 30 countries, revealed a hole in its accounts that investigators said could exceed 10 billion euros.

Melting Pot

(12/27/2003; 12:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114177)

What will the market do on Monday?

The only way the "banking cartel" will escape from their net short gold position (15000 tonnes) is to come up with a massive supply of gold... or the machine that produces gold out of thin air shows up.

The demand for (physical) gold is so great that soon the fractional reserve system that has been suppressing its price will crumble causing the price of physical gold to shoot up very far.

The powers that be want the price of gold to go up, They have the most gold. When the fractional reserve system collapses gold is what is used to start it up again. The powers that be know this, the paper asset deal is just a milking operation to get more gold...as much gold as they can get their hands on. That's how they rule the world.

Physical Gold and silver is a good "hedge" against the powers that be and their plans.

This process is 1000's of years old and took me many years to figure out. Y2K was the start of the milking operation (Looting) operation. Eventually though once order is restored the buying power of gold will collapse.

Charts and forecasts???

We don't have years to figure out what the collapse of the Central Fiat reserve banking system looks like. All I know is this is what it has looked like before:

"The bank hath benefit of interest on all moneys which it creates out of nothing." -William Paterson, founder of the Bank of England, c1694.

"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." -President James Garfield.

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." -Thomas Jefferson

"Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the earth; take it away from them but leave them with the power to create credit; and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this world would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you want to be slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers control money and control credit." -Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England, c1940.

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."�Kenneth Boulding, economist.

Ah thats the deal eh... The U.S. dollar's worth is a figment of everyones imagination pure and simple... The basis for the dollar is Government bonds... Whats worth more $10,000 in bonds or 10,000 in cash? The bonds because the bonds gain value with compound interest while cash loses value from the compound interest... But their worth is just a figment of peoples imagination... Now what is the future? All paper assets will become worthless because not very many people can comprehend the Fractional Reserve System at the basic level. Forget all the complexities and conspiracies piled ontop of lies and half truths. It is so simple...

The Economic system of the current world civilization has not changed in 400 years... Central Banking based on fractional reserves. But somethin did change slightly in 1971.

Before the Gold Window closed the fractional basis for the U.S. Dollar was GOLD. How does that work?

Many years ago when gold coin was the currency Banks did not exist... The only group that had the necessary facilities to store wealth in the form of gold coins were the GOLDSMITHS. People would store (Deposit) their gold and the goldsmith would give them a receipt. The people found it easier to carry receipts to market then gold after awhile and the receipts became as "good as gold". The Goldsmiths noticed that at any given time 90% of the gold in their vaults just collected dust, so the goldsmiths started loaning gold in the form of receipts on top of just making phony receipts. The gold market to this very day is run like this� as long as people will take paper instead of GOLD you will never run out of GOLD and paper is almost endless. One slight problem was found with this system DEBT INFLATION. As Debt inflation grows the "receipts" lose buying power 2 ways a) the compound interest charged on the "loans" destroys the value of the receipts b ) The counterfeit receipts and loans increase the supply of buying power which causes prices to rise which adds to or compounds the destruction of buying power. And the biggest problem with DEBT inflation is that the bigger the DEBT grows the less GOLD there is to back up the DEBT so eventually the system will grow continually weaker until there is no backing any more for the receipts in circulation.At the start of Debt deflation 1,000,000 receipts are in circulation with 10% backing by gold, so as long as only 100,000 receipts are exchanged for GOLD then there is no problem. But if DEBT INFLATION is reaches MAXOUT at 10,000,000 then only 10,000 receipts are needed to suck up all the gold�

I could go on an on about how it evolves from that point but you hopefully see what I am saying�

DEBT INFLATION causes the Fractional System to become very weak� But today the backing of the U.S. Dollar is not gold but Bonds and the bonds are backed by the American people, so are the American people good as gold? That's called slavery to be owned in such a way�

Bonds have compound interest attached to them so they rise in value as you hold them and are backed up by the American people so just what are the American people backed up by? Gold? No the U.S. Dollars which are losing value in relation to the bonds compound interest rate� How are U.S. Dollars created? Every time Money is borrowed from a bank it is created out of thin air with compound interest attached to the debt/money which destroys the value of the money causing inflation. How does inflation work?

Lets say the money supply is $1000.00 and the compound interest that is destroying its value is 5%, if the money supply is 1000.00 and it costs 1000.00 to run the economy where does the money come from to pay the 5% interest rate from? Borrowing! Or Debt inflation.

Why Borrow? Well lets say you tried to save up to buy a house it could take 10 years but the bankers will create the money out of thin air for you if you don't mind paying them 5% compound interest/year for the money they created out of thin air.

By buying a house and borrowing the money to do it you have added to DEBT/money inflation. Why does debt inflation cause prices to rise? COMPOUND INTREST. The more debt that is borrowed the more compound interest that is created� compound Interest can never be paid off, ever, never�

Eventually a strange thing starts to happen in order to pay the compound interest the speed that the economy has to run at has to be increased by being made more efficient or borrowing has to be increased or both which leads eventually to the ever popular HYPERINFLATION as more and more compound interest is created by the DEBT used to pay the compound interest.

Well that means we have unlimited resources right? Yes as long as the COMPOUND INTREST can be paid by continually borrowing or creating DEBT to do it.

Unfortunately this process has an "upper limit" once the "economic activity" slows or stops then the ability to create debt also slows or stops which in turn causes the inability of compound interest to be paid. And deflation begins which can only be stopped by bankruptcy or resumption of inflation� Ok what is economic activity?

Economic Activity is the living process of human beings or everything that human being do on a daily basis to contribute to their survival� Food clothing and shelter and all the tools needed to accomplish their goal of survival on the planet EARTH.

What causes Economic activity to slow or stop? Reduction of borrowing required to accomplish the goal of survival such as everyone having enough shelter, enough food, enough clothing, enough tools, also Death puts and end to economic activity and various other things you get the point there is an upper limit to debt inflation.

Fractional reserve economics in it's most simple to understand form....

Compound interest creates debt inflation which causes economic activity to increase = life

But when inflation slows or stops due to economic activity slowing or stopping then�.....

When economic activity slows or stops Debt deflation begins which destroys the ability for compound interest to be serviced = Death

OR

Debt Inflation = Life
Debt Deflation = Death

Life and Death for whom? The payers of the compound interest created by the fractional reserve banking system namely the 6 billion people of the planet EARTH.

How do "we" stop this highly destructive system? How do we break free from the slavery of Compound Interest?

Answer: Abolish Compound Interest and Fractional Reserve Lending.

How do we abolish compound interest? That has been the "real" dream of slaves since the beginning of recorded history and that is the "secret" that the "Powers that be" or "slave owners" never ever want the slaves to figure out. They will coat the planet with blood to maintain control and prevent the "secret" or cause of all human misery suffered to be figured out or lead back to the source.

And basically the human race are morons and will never figure this out because that is where "we" are right now THE WORLD DEBT has inflated to it's maximum potential and economic activity has slowed or stopped in some cases and the ability of the human race to service the compound interest is at an end and Debt deflation has taken hold permanently� nothing can stop the debt deflation because debt inflation has reached maximum potential. The only thing that stops deflation in a fractional reserve banking system which has reached the maximum potential is "Bank"ruptcy followed by collapse of the system itself until all debts are wiped out which in turn wipe out compound interest�

So now you know the "SECRET" which is:

COMPOUND INTEREST, NO MATTER HOW BIG OR SMALL AND IN ANY SHAPE OR FORM, LEADS TO EVENTUAL COLLAPSE OF THE FRACTIONAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

And since human civilization is dependent on fractional reserve banking it will collapse too�

Any one that doesn't believe the above after reading this is a traitor to the human race and is in contempt of all things good� Or just plain stupid�

What do we do about it? Answer: It is too late to do anything about it, or is it?

The World economy is finished�

We are in the final stages of the "Good Old Days"�

This is how "modern" Fractional Reserve banking has worked for 100's of years.

Phase/Stage 1

Everyone's favorite drug INFLATION of Debt�

Once the maximum potential for debt inflation is reached phase/stage 2 begins. (this is where we/you are� standing at the edge of "the good old days")

Phase/stage 2

DEFLATION of debt, How or why?

Compound interest is the price to sustain inflation. As long as you can pay the price, inflation will continue and your hopes and dreams will usually come true. Once you can not afford the payment your hopes and dreams will not come true. Simple

The only way to pay compound interest is to borrow money/create debt. Once borrowing slows or stops compound interest can not be paid and debt deflation is the result.

Aren't we just in a mild recession or "soft spot"?

No, In the past there was "slack" in the economic system, what is slack? "SAVINGS". with the introduction of computers the economists have figured how much everyone has, and marketing specialists have figured out how to get it. The charts below are some evidence that the slack is gone�

We are just in the beginning stages of deflation.

Phase/stage 3

"Bank"ruptcy
Complete collapse of all interconnected banks in the system, since the US dollar is the world reserve currency the world banking system will collapse. plain and simple.

Recap of the "LIFECYCLE" phases/stages of fractional reserve banking.

Phase/stage 1 = debt INFLATION
Phase/stage 2 = debt DEFLATION
Phase/stage 3 = "Bank"ruptcy

Simple as 1,2,3

We are on the verge of total world economic collapse and resource wars of conquest...

What will the market do on Monday? Get one more step closer to the Wild desperate animal stage� Reality that the World reserve currency is (Baseless) and collapses (Debt deflation implosion) world wide.

Hope that is enough info�

More gold = more power

Paper Avalanche

(12/27/2003; 13:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114178)

@ GAB and Melting Pot

GAB: The Chinese have opened the flood gate and the resulting uptake by the citizens of that country will likely absorb all of the known gold at today's prices (hence the impending stratospheric rise in POG). 1.499998 billion to go.

Melting Pot: Excellent dissertation as always. Thanks for your terrific posts.

I believe that we will see POG above $420 by the end of next week and $500 by the end of January is not a stretch of the imagination IMO. I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

PA

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 13:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114179)

Druid - mikal

MZM Growth Theoryhahahaha

MZM must increase by $2 trillion in the next 12 months or complete economic doom is upon us!

hahahaha

Must that occur so that GDP can increase by $2 trillion in the next 12 months?

hahahaha

Goldendome

(12/27/2003; 14:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114180)

Questions for our European Knights

Clicked on Cyteks posted Hamilton graph showing that thus far, the golden bull only appears to be occurring in dollar denominated gold (of the 3 currencies shown: dollar, Yen, Euro). The level, 200 day/mov./Avg. for the price of gold in Euros is so stable, it must be obvious to most Europeans, that to them, there is no bull nor bear market in gold right now.

Now if the Renibni-Yuan (Chinese currency) is linked to the dollar then by straight line reasoning the price of gold should really be moving up strongly as that currency inflates and depreciates along with the dollar, although I haven't seen any figures, say for the last year.

An interesting snip that I want to add here from Doug Noland's last article posted Friday at our friend, The Prudent Bear; makes it sound as though China is about to "bust it's buttons", or "tear a hamstring", as it grows faster and faster without an infrastructure able to keep up:

December 16 - Financial Times (James Kynge): "China's boundless commercial energy has begun to bump up against finite capacity. It is too early to tell how soon and to what extent these capacity constraints will start to slow the world's fastest-growing large economy. But it is clear that shortages - in some areas - of electricity, transport capacity, coal, grain and other commodities are forcing up prices and restraining new investment� The clearest capacity constraint to growth is in the power industry. Broad swathes of China's industrial heartland are now chronically short of electricity

The lack of rail capacity has shifted the burden to road transport, where prices are set by the market and have therefore been climbing. Indeed, one reason behind the sharp increase in the price of soybeans, maize, wheat, rice, vegetables and pork has been the rising cost of transport."

The consensus remains generally fixated on the "China exporting deflation" story. But the truth of the matter is that China is providing us with an extraordinary example of Credit inflation and boom dynamics. An out of control investment boom is now challenged by expanding bottlenecks and shortages. In turn, runaway Credit excess has nurtured a real estate boom, general asset inflation, and rampant speculation. China fever has afflicted the world. What had appeared a healthy, stable and easily manageable boom is being transformed to something more capricious and unwieldy. And with cautious authorities understandably hesitant to "slam on the brakes" (a boom of this ferocity, breadth and duration will not succumb to inhibited monetary management), we will now have the opportunity to follow and analyze an economy with increasingly problematic Inflationary Manifestations. At some point, perhaps Chinese authorities will come to recognize that the over-liquefied global financial system and faltering dollar compound their unfolding dilemma. The Bank of Japan can buy mountains of dollars � adding liquidity to their domestic financial system � seemingly without an inflationary care in the world. The same is certainly not true for the Chinese with myriad inflationary biases throughout their economy and markets.
____________________________________End snip.

How long will the Chinese be able to supply the world with their incredibly deflationary priced goods in an increasingly inflationary home environment? We don't know.

I have a question for our European friends: Are you seeing more and cheaper Chinese goods imports now in the Euro countries, due to the sharp decline of the dollar and the linked Renibni/Yuan??

Is your manufacturing sector beginning to suffer more--lose more jobs--than previously?

Are your companies threatening more, to close down operations and to move more of the jobs and work to lower cost areas of the world?
---------
Here in the U.S. the only areas that I hear much about job growth are the protected sectors of:
Government, Medicine, and Service industries.

(12/27/2003; 14:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114181)

News & Views

CoBra(too)

(12/27/2003; 15:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114182)

Interventions R'US?

Looks like Agingfast is laughing at himself ... which may be a good sign in itself, though as everything is relative.

Relative to what, begs the question in the end. And as almost everyone in the business is accepting the massive intervention of CB's in all financial markets, some will never get it.

Even Greenspan has scented a bubble, while the Dow was at 6.000 in 1996 - and while there may have been some growth in between - the DJIA doubled - as well as the PE's.

Well, as it's none of my business to change the process of reckoning for some of my (not by too much, BTW) elders, and I even would not venture to do so. The only thing and if I may say so - "pisses me off" - are the deniers of any kind of official (un-official) interventions.

I'd personally take the silly and totally unprecedented stock bear market rally on a global basis as precedent for hedonics. Never before financial markets have made a comeback from totally overvalued to extremely overvalued.

Again - Who cares if it's the repo pool, even if I would say it's say it's a factor - among many others.

It may be probably lost to you, my dear, AF, when I do feel you may have had all the priviledges to age in style and never looked behind the real scenes of today's reality!

It may be easy to blast other peoples findings, as of course we elder may know better - and even can't accept
any intervention, managing a/o even painting the economic numbers - and do we?

To cut it short - the US dollar is on a descent, the financial markets will run into a brick wall and the system we know is more fragile than I thought.

Forget repos, IR's, financial valuations, housing and go real hard assets ... and have a great and prosperous 2004 with a good portion of real value - GOLD - in portfolio -

cb2 - not to return until 2004 - Thankfully ....

TownCrier

(12/27/2003; 16:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114183)

Mo' money as easy as turning on a faucet

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031226/markets_forex_intervention_2.htmlTOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF), in a bid to quell speculation that it could run out of cash to intervene on the currency market, said on Friday it could now raise funds by selling foreign bonds to the Bank of Japan.

...the ministry said the Central Bank could provide up to 10 trillion yen ($93.2 billion) for its foreign exchange account by buying foreign bonds -- namely U.S. Treasuries -- from it under repurchase agreements.

The move comes within a week of the ministry's announcement that it would raise the legal ceiling for its issuance of short-term bills for its forex account... (Last Saturday, the ministry drafted a supplementary budget in which the borrowing ceiling for its forex account, via issuance of finance bills, was raised to 100 trillion yen from 79 trillion yen. The FB ceiling was further jacked up to 140 trillion yen in the draft budget for fiscal 2004/05.)

The increase in the MOF's borrowing limit, spelled out in the draft budget for fiscal 2004/05, would not be formally legislated until late January and the deal with the central bank is seen as a stop-gap measure.

[...Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo said it allows them to] "continue the current policy, which we think is aimed at smoothing the dollar's decline."

Japan has conducted a record 17.8 trillion yen of foreign exchange intervention in the first 11 months of this year, raising concerns that it was nearing the borrowing limit.

The dollar, which has fallen more than 10 percent from early August heights above 120 yen, hit three-year lows below 107 yen earlier this month...

--------(see url for full text)------

Seemingly, as go the dollar, so goes the yen. It does not require an American consumer to put pricing pressure on the gold market -- the incentive to acquire gold can come from any quarter, and we have already seen recent examples of the willingness of Japanese households to seize upon the good tangible value of this precious yellow metal.

R.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 16:22:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114184)

CoBra(too)

So you agree with those who believe MZM must increase by $2 trillion in 2004 or else the economic end is at hand. I'm surprised you share that bizarre idea.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 16:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114185)

CoBra(too)

Re: Your belief in the MZM-Growth Disaster ScenarioAnd I assume that you also believe that in addition to having to grow by $2 trillion in 2004 to avoid complete economic disaster, MZM will have to grow by an infinite number of trillions in 2005 to avoid that disaster. My dear CB2, you astonish me.

Cavan Man

(12/27/2003; 17:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114186)

Dear antagonizingrapidly.....

Have a nice day!

Flaccus

(12/27/2003; 17:22:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114187)

Agin'fast is

100% in bonds.
0% in gold.

I wouldn't want to hear about inflation either, or deflation for that matter.

Tell us, Agin'fast, why does someone 100% and 0% in gold spend so much time at a gold forum?

Flaccus

(12/27/2003; 17:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114188)

Agin'fast

Edit that to

Tell us, Agin'fast, why does someone 100% "in bonds" and 0% in gold spend so much time at a gold foum?

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 18:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114189)

Flaccus

As a long-time critic of the monetary policymakers -- particularly their perpetual, misplaced emphasis on trying to manage the demand side of the economy (which members of this forum may or may not understand) -- I hate to see them get a laugh by being criticized for things they're not doing. Also, let me assure you that no invesmwent decision demonstrated more prescience than the purchase of long-term, double-digit-yielding Treasury bonds in the early 1980s.

Druid

(12/27/2003; 18:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114190)

Agingfast (12/27/03; 18:12:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114189)

"Also, let me assure you that no invesmwent decision demonstrated more prescience than the purchase of long-term, double-digit-yielding Treasury bonds in the early 1980s."

Druid: You are absolutely correct Sir. And it is this stealth bull market in debt along all the yield curves over the last 20+ years that is smothering the productive sector by means of an exponentially growing debt burden. The debt to equity ratios across many a company throughout corporate America is appalling to say the least and totally out of control among states, cities and municipalities.

Druid

(12/27/2003; 18:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114191)

Melting Pot (12/27/03; 12:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114177)

"What will the market do on Monday?"

Druid: Melting Pot, phenomenal post, great! Job.

Dollar Bill

(12/27/2003; 18:35:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114192)

*>*

Agingfast (12/27/03; 18:12:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114189)
Flaccus
As a long-time critic of the monetary policymakers -- particularly their perpetual, misplaced emphasis on trying to manage the demand side of the economy (which members of this forum may or may not understand) -- I hate to see them get a laugh by being criticized for things they're not doing. Also, let me assure you that no invesmwent decision demonstrated more prescience than the purchase of long-term, double-digit-yielding Treasury bonds in the early 1980s.

I think "prescience" is not applicable.
When High interest bonds are being sold, especially at the rates of the Volcker Fed, that is just a no brainer.
"prescience" would be those investors that invested in home depot in the early eighties. They made out even better.
And a host of technology companies. And Walgreens for that matter. Tons of early nineties vehicles to ride with higher returns than the bonds.
They manage the demand side of the economy by interest rates.
There is no more hostile person I have read here in maybe ever.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 18:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114193)

Dollar Bill

You're an advocate of equities; I'm not. I have no symnpathy for the idea that the sole goal of every US corporation must be to increase its earnings 10-20-30% every year -- and that, therefore, its management is entitled take advantage of its customers, employees and suppliers in every way it can.

I also have no sympathy for the idea that the American people -- that precious 5% of the world's population -- must never be allowed to suffer from a recession, and that, therefore, reckless fiscal and monetary policies of the kind displayed in the last few years are justified.

Aristotle

(12/27/2003; 18:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114194)

Looks like, smells like...

The same M.O. --------- Agingfast / hepcat

For all the oldtimers who've been treading the internet Gold paths these past many years, need I say more?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 18:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114195)

Aristotle

So you also believe that MZM must increase by $2 trillion in 2004 and by an infinite number of trillions in 2005 -- or else! You, too, astonish me.

Flaccus

(12/27/2003; 19:09:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114196)

Agingfast

I am not questioning your intelligence. I'm questioning your motivation. What are you after here? Do you want us to prove your 100% bond position wrong? And that you should own gold? Is that why you're here? Or is it that you feel that if you and beat those rascally gold types into submission, that you prove yourself right? Self-satisfaction. That might explain the tone of some of your posts -- the holier-than-thou approach. Or is it smarter than thou, Agingfast?

I'll go further with you if you answer my posts directly. If not this will be my last post on the subject and I'll let the table take your approach for what it is.

Aristotle

(12/27/2003; 19:11:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114197)

MZM must increase by $2 trillion??????

I said no such thing. While it's one thing to foresee a hyperinflationary scenario, it's quite another to pretend you can draw a numerical box around it.

Don't play the part of the fool -- you're overqualified.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Dollar Bill

(12/27/2003; 19:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114198)

*>*

Agingfast (12/27/03; 18:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 114193)
Dollar Bill
"You're an advocate of equities; I'm not. I have no symnpathy for the idea that the sole goal of every US corporation must be to increase its earnings 10-20-30% every year -- and that, therefore, its management is entitled take advantage of its customers, employees and suppliers in every way it can.

I also have no sympathy for the idea that the American people -- that precious 5% of the world's population -- must never be allowed to suffer from a recession, and that, therefore, reckless fiscal and monetary policies of the kind displayed in the last few years are justified."

Look at yourself. I am not an advocate of equities. WHO on earth has the idea that the sole goal of every us corp is to increase earnings 10-20-30-% every year, (and, you actually are saying that those very same EVERY us corp's management "is entitled take advantage of its customers, employees and suppliers in every way it can."
Do you think just be sloopy negativity you silence those that see it is flawed analysis? Does it work for those around you? I suspect so.

You just live to criticise. You are a hostile personality and I sincerely doubt that those around you treat you with "awe and intense admiration". I would suspect they just want to be in on any inheritance. Arrogant criticism carries weight with those that dont know how hostile personalities use that to prop themselves up at the expense of others. It stems from insecurity.

So, your not not a conspiracy nut like, as you said "most of the forum members here are"
Well, what the hell is the basis for this ,incorrect by the way, comment "I also have no sympathy for the idea that the American people -- that precious 5% of the world's population -- must never be allowed to suffer from a recession, and that, therefore, reckless fiscal and monetary policies of the kind displayed in the last few years are justified."

There is such a thing as growing old gracefully. You are hostile. And it runs deep.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 19:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114199)

Aristotle

This discussion began with my post haha-ing Druid's and mikal's endorsement of the idea that MZM must grow by an astounding $2 trillion in 2004 and, even more astoundingly, by an infinite number of trillions in 2005 -- or else! Therefore, all who responded in opposition to my post are saying that they, too, endorse that idea. You're the first who has clarified his position by saying you don't endorse it.

Cavan Man

(12/27/2003; 19:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114200)

Aristotle...

For once (recently, anyway) we agree!Salutations from middle west.

Cavan Man

(12/27/2003; 19:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114201)

Agingfast

It's not too late for a second retirement.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 19:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114202)

Dollar Bill

Temper, temper.

Druid

(12/27/2003; 19:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114203)

"Driving in Reverse" - The Fed's Economic Model

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/benson072403.html"It used to be that the economy drove the markets. Now, the markets drive the economy, and the Fed is behind the wheel!

The new market driven economy is based on managing expectations always upward and manipulating markets to keep asset prices up, and the appearance of wealth high. This is designed to keep businesses and households spending. This economic model, however, has an air of desperation about it. At present, corporate cash flows, and the rate of capacity utilization does not justify any meaningful pick-up in corporate investment or hiring. The household sector continues to spend beyond its means and is sustained only by the extraordinary increase in annual mortgage debt.

It is clear that if consumers began to pay down their debts and actually save, the US economy would have a massive recession that would shatter the overgrown financial system - the current $32 Trillion of debt could not be serviced, and the $160 Trillion of financial derivatives insure that the financial system is one large Long Term Capital. The Fed is desperate because it knows that a dollar saved is a dollar not spent."

Druid: This is an interesting blast from the past that touches on "supposed" interventions "manageable" debt loads and "massaging" consumer expectations.

Dollar Bill

(12/27/2003; 19:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114204)

*>*

Look at yourself. Impossible I would guess.
Even your "temper temper" thing is attemped manipulation like you use with probable success with those around you.
It is an attempt to divert any focus on your abuse by belittling any source of accuracy in your life.
Why dont you do a google on Narcissism.
You bully around the forum and if I was Admin, you would be definately out.

Aristotle

(12/27/2003; 19:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114205)

Promoting the well-being of "Earth's finest residents"

To DryWasher and GAB

You and most others probably understood at the time what I meant with that phrase of my post the other day, but lest there be any lingering doubt about the nature of those finest residents in question, I meant its People in general (rather than its polarbears, piranhas or penguins,) and especially NOT meaning any particular nationality of folks.

Just wanted to set the record straight.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Goldilox

(12/27/2003; 19:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114206)

Fireworks *@&% - yeehah! - also reserve currency thoughts

Darn, I've been studying up on weekly postings at other castles and missed all the fireworks!! Probably for the best, as I am out of Rolaids.

Here's an opinion to add fuel to the reserve currency fire. I won't post the reference, as I enjoy my posting privileges too much, but it's by Julian Phillips.

snippit:

"Gold in the Global Economy

In a nutshell, in 2003 Gold went GLOBAL! The Global economy is still in the relatively early stages of control, but has developed sufficiently to refract the economic data used to guide us in local economic matters. It still has a long way to go to complete the process and many will say that it only reflects the fall in the $. But that is precisely the point, gold is relatively steady in Euros and rising in $. If the $ were regarded as the most important currency in which to price gold, it would have fallen in Euros and stayed steady in $! So why has it not done so? Because the $ is not regarded as the key currency in which to price, not only gold but Platinum Silver and other commodities."

Goldlox:
Strictly a statement of perception, but the significance to me is that the current system of comparisons FUDs the fact that most other currencies are fairly steady against gold while the US $ schussbooms downhill. Not exactly Snow's picture of a "strong dollar", even using HIS definition of the term.

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 19:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114207)

All

I meant to say "I have no sympathy for the idea that the earnings of all PUBLICLY TRADED corporations must increase by 10-20-30% every year." I was referring to corporate managers who follow the dictates of Wall Street's investment bankers.

Dollar Bill

(12/27/2003; 20:07:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114208)

*>*...............

That would be yet another conspiracy theory.
Investment bankers unnamed but, well, all it seems, have a quiet policy of demanding....

Druid

(12/27/2003; 20:10:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114209)

Agingfast (12/27/03; 19:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114199)

Druid: I damn sure won't speak for Ari, but as I interpret his response, he's not going to put a "bound" in terms of a time frame on an existing trend that appears to be huge and in place. I think that there are more then a few of us at this forum who understand that in all psuedosciences, witchcraft, industry paid for science... gimmickry can be utilized to fit a need and create a perception across each and every "investment" class. The consortium of the Fed/Treasury/Wall Street could do many things to alter, prolong and/or disrupt the course of the MZM trend thereby disproving the time frame depicted in that graph. However, it would intellectually dishonest on your part to even begin to suggest that we do not have a HUGE debt problem in this country.

Aristotle

(12/27/2003; 20:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114210)

Hiya Dollar Bill

This might be fair to say -- the hepcat in question only bullies the forum inasmuch as each person is willing to let himself feel bullied.

You see, my friend, you're too kind a soul -- you're maybe busting yourself up a bit trying lend a hand where it seems like its needed. But here's the deal...

Just think of him as your (or collectively "our") little cyber doggie right here at the forum. Ain't that kinda cool? And he's just too far along, this little doggie, too set in his ways -- almost specifically too spoiled from his youth -- for you to ever hope to have any luck teaching him new tricks. So sit back like an amused head of household and watch this little doggie run from person to person nipping and barking for attention. He can't bite. And when he leaves enough of his little piddles and poo-poos all over the floor to the point where it isn't easy for any of our party to take a step without imminent frustration, maybe we'll all put in an appeal to send him to the doghouse.

In the meanwhile, ain't he cute running around like he does looking for a pat on the head or else an exposed ankle? Best of all, this little doggie is all ours! What fun!!! I'll bet just about every other forum wishes they could have their own pet, too. But this scruffy little guy is ours, and the fact that he freely stays here among us, even though he doesn't have an interest or clue about what we're talking about, is a fine testimonial about what great guys and gals we all must be.

That oughta help you keep a good perspective on this sorta thing, 'cause as surely as this one will one day fade away, another one will take his place.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

specie-man

(12/27/2003; 20:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114211)

Pssst ! Wanna buy some bonds ?

No thanks.

While I don't believe the explicit money growth projections to avoid the "or else" scenario, I do see the dollar continue to loose purchasing power in the years ahead.
Dollar-denominated bonds will also loose purchasing power.

This is a simple supply & demand situation - a greater supply of bonds being issued, and less demand for them.

And in addition, the credit worthiness of many bond issuers will decline, putting further downward pressure on bond prices.

When Japan finally says "uncle" and stops buying so many US Treasuries, the game is over. And when might that happen ? When the Japanese economy starts to feel uncomfortable levels of stagflation.

If US Treasury bonds paid double-digit interest and inflation was significantly below the bond rate, then I might consider investing in US Treasuries. But, of course, the opposite situation exists currently.

I don't think we will see any sort of hyperinflation. We will actually experience something worse - "hyper-stagflation".

Aristotle

(12/27/2003; 20:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114212)

And in all fairness...

there are some here who probably see me as being their cyber pooch.

But hey, at least I do make a point to bring assorted gifts whenever I appear, and I also choose to eat off the table rather than the floor.

Woof woof!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Dollar Bill

(12/27/2003; 20:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114213)

*>*

That exposed ankle thing is just halarious.
However, as an actual head of household of 4 boys, some things are not amuseing. Tolerable for a few days, then, when I get the picture, not ok.
Not all here see it, including the abuser.
Heaven or hell, it will only be a source of irritation.
When life on earth, a place that took 14 billion years or so to get to this point, becomes a place where I want those around me to view me with "awe and intense admiration",
I am hopelessly missing the real opportunity this life was created for.
Jacob Marley showed what? The past? present? future?
All of it was waste except for what was touched by the heart. When our heart gets so bypassed that we become foul, our heart would want anyone, anything, to help break the chokehold of our arrogant mind and open us up again so that remaining days can shine.
If we think we are after approval and adoration, and think we deserve it, that is a big red flag.
Time is wasting.

Paper Avalanche

(12/27/2003; 21:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114214)

@ Agingfast - Time for your nightly neutering....

You have zero credibility because you lack the intellectual capacity (or if you possess said capacity, you know that the answer to my question will undermine your entire thesis) to address a question that I have put to you for the past three nights.

I win.

Your thesis lacks credibility becasue it is unable to withstand scrutiny.

Your motives are apprently more obvious to all per tonights postings.

BTW, (as if you have not undermined your credibility enough so far) how many times have you promised that you were leaving this forum in the last week?

Please keep your promises.

I look forward to seeing you at an interstate exit with a sign in your hand in the coming years.

PAPER AVALANCHE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Druid

(12/27/2003; 21:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114215)

Aristotle (12/27/03; 20:14:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114210)

Druid: Ari, you have got to give some sort of symbolic warning friend, I had a drink in my mouth and now have to clean up a portion of my CPU box. I'll be honest and tell you that I agree with a lot of AF's analysis, which, in my opinion, is reflective of a snapshot in time. Say from the late 60's to mid 80's but the world of finance (structured garbage) and technology has changed to such a degree today that there is nothing in history that reflects the speed and magnitude of economic, political and financial change that is transpiring before out eyes today. Sometimes being extremely successful can work against you.

Cor Tauri (10/9/03; 07:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 110081)

"But to miss one of the most incredible dramas of human history happening in ones life would be really unfortunate. This is like the fall of Rome occuring in the span of a single lifetime. To watch it, to understand, even if one is a Roman, especially if one is a Roman, is the most incredible show on earth. What is happening now, is, it is astonishing. They will write of this period of human history THOUSANDS of years from now.
All men die, few are witness to great things, and fewer still understand what they have seen."

Solomon Weaver

(12/27/2003; 21:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114216)

Paper Avalanche - I hold up your hand and glove

As you might remember, I tried to join the debate team a few night back....but I have very limited patience with a person who claims intelligence and is incapable of using logic.

I too declare that you have now won the high ground.....and yet we are still uncertain if Fed Funds rate and dollar gold price have any true correlation, and if so, any predictive value.

So, now that you have won the debate, please find a small quantity of brandy, cognac, or nice dry sherry, and toast with me to a quiet moment, pondering the folly of all men, and our compelling efforts to humor them all....

I sip that toast, even now as I post....

Poor old Solomon.

Great Albino Bat

(12/27/2003; 21:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114217)

What a pain!

Well, that does it. This GAB is up to here with the snobbery of AF.

I hereby promise myself to scroll by any post with "Agingfast" on it. "Scout's honor".

Sorry, old boy, your style is just - insufferable. Whether what you say is true or not, is beside the point.

The GAB

Agingfast

(12/27/2003; 22:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114218)

Children, children

All I did in my original post was point out how ludicrous -- how hilarious -- how silly -- it is to believe that the question of whether a total economic collapse will occur soon depends entirely upon whether or not MZM can rise by a stunning $2 trillion in 2004 and by an infinite number of trillions in 2005. I didn't realize how tightly your hopes are entwined around that single remarkable occurrence and how sensitive you are to criticism of that belief.

Solomon Weaver

(12/27/2003; 22:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114219)

Argggh.

Gaggingfast

At least I (and maybe a few others of the Children at this site) would have simply overread such a statement...as all posters of this site are basically free to make observations and offer ideas.....

So, what is PARTICULARLY OBJECTIONABLE is not the fact that you picked that item out for discussion, but rather that instead of giving any of your precious time to it, you simply offer a THOROUGHLY INSULTING COMMENT (SEE POST 114179).

Since you appear to be a person who is not open to the ideas of those who differ much from yours, and who appears to thrive on rhetorical one-upmanship, and most unable to take hints.....there is something that needs to be spelled out to you.

Although this is a PUBLIC FORUM...in that it may be visited by anyone, the posting freedoms (which you do make liberal and frequent use of) are governed by your agreement to use them in a constructive and polite manner. You have entered into a game here which you seem to use to inflate your pride, but the end result will be that your posting rights may be removed.

This site is a precious resource to many of us, and we don't need this resource to be wasted.

Poor old Solomon

Waverider

(12/27/2003; 22:34:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114220)

Gaggingfast............

Did you by any chance post here under the alias of Robert...or worse....DanDruff? It appears we have yet another Flake in our midst!

specie-man

(12/27/2003; 22:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114221)

Differing Opinions

Personally, I don't mind seeing opposing points of view on this forum, so long as they are presented in a professional and non-condescending way.

Agingfast -
Describing the posters here as "children" appears to be a deliberate taunt. You evidently like to stir up the emotions. So don't complain if the replies are heated.

As far as MZM growth goes -
Just because the scenario sounds "silly" to you doesn't mean that it isn't a possible outcome. You certainy don't have all the answers - no one here does. And we won't know for sure until 2005.

Paper Avalanche

(12/27/2003; 22:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114222)

@ Agingfast

Your credibility continues to deteriorate exponentially (eventually approaching zero).

Per commercial law (lex mercatoria), an unrefuted statement (or better yet, an unrefuted sworn afadavit) stands as the truth (judgment).

To that end, and unless you provide substantive evidence to prove otherwise, I submit that your theory relative to the relationship between the fed funds rate and the price of gold is fundamentally flawed (since it is based on empirical data when the dollar was the world reserve fiat currency - i.e. prior to 2003) due to a change in the international acceptance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

I look forward to posting this message every time you incorrectly (and intentionally?) posit the notion that your theory vis-a-vis fed funds / POG has merit.

IMO, you are a paid shill with a specific mission.

You are like a mission-oriented snow mobile running into a.......

PAPER AVALANCHE

Goldilox

(12/27/2003; 23:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114223)

Are we done yet?

@ LW -

I thought I was the only one who remembered the totally obnoxious DanDruff. These "specific discussions" have certainly deteriorated! Even some of the folks I almost always disagree with are bringing out their tar and feathering gear.

I can't wait for the gold market to reopen.

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 00:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114224)

FSO - Wallenwein's latest

http://www.financialsense.comsnippit:

"But this is not an article about why the dollar will keep falling. That subject has been dealt with at length in virtually every other �euro vs dollar� article published online, and in even more detail in every issue of the Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor. This article is about what to do once you realize that this drop won't stop.

If you realize that, you immediately know that, at some point, the falling dollar will kill the recovery - which really is the only thing worth knowing. How long it takes, time-wise, before that happens is rather irrelevant.

What's the difference whether it will happen tomorrow, three months from now, or maybe in a year? The only difference that makes is that it determines how much time you have left to prepare for that event - if you are wise enough to prepare!

Too many Americans have no idea whatsoever that this threat even exists."

Goldilox:

I've seen enough articles on what to do to "protect myself" that I believe the public must be hearing the message that the dollar is toast. How much longer until the real battle to put in a floor? That's an important question. Hyperinflation? Maybe, but perhaps more likely capitulation and reorganization. DX=80, 70, 60? I sure can't say, but at some point brakes will be applied. . . we'll see how well they function.

IMHO, the political situation will have less effect than most of the pundits would have us believe. If the republicans are retained, we get four more years of borrow and spend. If the demos win we get tax, borrow, and spend. Either way, the US government is addicted to increased spending, and our economy is in such sad shape that cutting gubmint spending would drive unemployment to the Moon and GDP through the cellar. Neither party can stomach the consequences of that action. The stage is set for another "inflation bubble" like 1979-80. If the demos do win, the repubs will say, "See he's as weak as Carter. Inflation is rampant." Gold coins are showing up all over the TV, so I assume that many of the powerful availed themselves of government "gold sales" to transfer public gold to their private stash, and now they're ready for the masses to jump on the band wagon.

That's why gold and other commodity assets are such sure bets for asset growth right now. The ride may be a bit rough for the players in the paper game, but that's why they call it gambling. Buying and storing physical gold in the early stages of an inflation event is currently a no-brainer.

Selling appropriately to profit is MUCH harder. Some say to "play" the rises; some say hold until topping signs are clear; some say hold until the US $ is completely debunked. These messages are much less clear than the buys, and only time will help us sort out the validity of each.

Got gold? Hey Rich, I capitulated and bought some 1964 Kennedy halves today (90% silver). What better way to show my colors in this upcoming election year?

Liberty Head

(12/28/2003; 01:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114225)

RE: MZM Graph #114170

I agree, there is a general inverse relationship between MZM growth and the FED Fund Rate. However, since the graph does not have a vertical scale, it would be difficult to determine from the graph if the quantitative statements are accurate or not. Superimposed graphs without scales should always send up a red flag.
Nonetheless, as many have stated previously, any expression of deflation will first be detected in the sectors with the biggest debt bubbles.
After Uncle Sam wages, are not compensating for the dollars decline.
I'm afraid there will be a growing number of folks sleeping under bridges that used to own half million dollar homes.
The POG is a good reference indicator of our dollars value.
Commodities, the true center core of our economic universe will maintain their value independently from the fiat dollars we tend to measure with.
Stay out of debt, own things lots of other folks will want and consider moving to New Zealand. :-)

Best Wishes

Liberty Head

(12/28/2003; 01:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114226)

RE: Wallenwein's latest

Goldilox,

Thank you for posting the FSO article.
It is right on, brother.
Unfortunately, like lots of folks, I have a 401k that doesn't have a "get out of the stock market" option. We may quit our job and pay the hefty taxes and penalties. It's a tough choice. Do we retire early or do we keep working for less and less? Heck, if the market falls enough we could lose more than we earn all year.
Oh where's the crystal ball when you need one?
TGFG

Best Wishes

Melting Pot

(12/28/2003; 08:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114227)

Where Did The Money Go?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chuhran122903.htmlThe essay "Where Did The Money Go," could have been titled "M3 Exponential Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate."

I have been observing the recent debate on "MZM v Fed Funds Rate" with keen interest. Let me point out IMO when push comes to shove the FED and USA Inc. will just print Weimar style making any debate on the subject matter moot and void for want. Secondly, there has been no independent audit of the system since it's inception, hence the data employed in the observation may not be accurate or reflect proper accounting procedures, Enron, World Com, Parmalat, ect., et al comes to mind! Thirdly, the FED would have us believe that inflation is dormant and tamed when "in the real world" where hedonic measures are meaningless, signs of a massive inflation are reflected in the general prices of subsistance goods and services (food, fuels, housing, medical, insurance, utilities, etc.).

Policy Steady, Inflation Dormant-McTeer
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4046838

The '12 Days' Index Shows a Record 19% Increase

SNIP:

True love, at least when it comes to the gift-giving kind in the classic carol "The Twelve Days of Christmas," would cost an eye-popping $65,264 this year - a record 19 percent increase over last year's price tag.

For nearly two decades, at the beginning of the holiday season, a Pennsylvania financial services firm has tallied the cost of the assorted tokens of affection detailed in the medieval carol - from the lone partridge in a pear tree to the dozen drummers drumming.

This year, the price had its biggest jump since the firm, PNC Advisors started putting its Christmas price index together in 1984 as a tongue-in-cheek analysis of the economy.

Jeff Kleintop, chief strategist at PNC Advisors, attributed the abrupt reversal from 2002, when the index fell 7.6 percent, to rising costs of skilled labor. A case in point, he said, piping pipers and drumming drummers both rose a steep 22.8 percent this year from last.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/business/25costs.html?ex=1387774800&en=d4a3d371dc8d2477&ei=5007∂ner=USERLAND

Again there is much evidence that the "quality" of the data is lacking and wanting for accuracy at best and at worst it is downright fraudulent. Thus the scientist or observer is working with corrupt or erroneous data and hence the probability of the thesis will be erroneous in toto. Of course they lie, what else can they do at this apex, the banking system, inflationary taxation and fractional reserve/usury scheme is in jeopardy of discovery by the masses and/or destruction by the K winter.....

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

"Should government refrain from regulation (taxation), the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent and the fraud can no longer be concealed."*****"By this means [inflation] government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft."--John Maynard Keynes (the father of 'Keynesian Economics' which our nation now endures) in his book "THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" (1920).

Where Did The Money Go?

*****The first chart shows M3 Velocity against the Fed Funds Rate. Again, M3 Velocity is basically the speed at which the broadest measure of money supply circulates and is turned over creating economic activity. This gives you a rough idea of the temperature of the economy.*****Taking a look back to the beginning of 1990 notice how flat M3 remained all the way through 1995. There was a $300 billion rise in M3 over those 5 years with a corresponding $770 billion rise in GDP. In other words, it took a 38 cent rise in M3 to generate a $1 rise in GDP.*****Between March '95 and March 2000, we experienced a $2.3 trillion rise (~+50% in 5 years, WOW!) in M3 while we only gained $1.6 trillion in GDP. What? Now it took a $1.43 rise in M3 just to get a $1 rise in GDP.*****Between the Nasdaq top in March 2000 and the end of the recession (pink shaded area) we only grew GDP by $90 billion while M3 grew by another $1.2 trillion. Remember, this was period of time where the Fed initiated most of the 13 rate cuts while M3 velocity was plunging and failing to respond to that Fed stimulus. Over these 18 months it took a M3 growth of $13.33 to achieve a $1 rise in GDP. That M3 growth was not translating into growth in the GDP.*****

End of Snip:

The "MZM v. Fed Funds Rate" question is answered by the essay and accompanying charts contained in "Where did the money go" because to state the proposition is to answer it!

The Fall of Rome and Modern Parallels

*****Rome also suffered from the bane of all welfare states, inflation. The massive demands on the government to spend for this and that created pressures for the creation of new money. The Roman coin, the denarius, was cheapened and debased by one emperor after another to pay for the expensive programs. Once 949o' silver, the denarius, by 268 A.D., was little more than a piece of junk containing only .02% silver. Flooding the economy with all this new and cheapened money had predictable results: prices skyrocketed, savings were eroded, and the people became angry and frustrated. Businessmen were often blamed for the rising prices even as government continued its spendthrift ways.

In the year 301, Emperor Diocletian responded with his famous "Edict of 301." This law established a system of comprehensive wage and price controls, to be enforced by a penalty of death. The chaos that ensued inspired the historian Lactantius to write in 314 A.D.: "After the many oppressions which he put in practice had brought a general dearth upon the empire, he then set himself to regulate the prices of all vendible things. There was much bloodshed upon very slight and trifling accounts; and the people brought provisions no more to markets, since they could not get a reasonable price for them; and this increased the dearth so much that at last after many had died by it, the law itself was laid aside."*****
http://www.libertyhaven.com/theoreticalorphilosophicalissues/history/fallrome.html

Good day!

DryWasher

(12/28/2003; 08:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114228)

Promoting the well-being of "Earth's finest residents"

@ Aristotle (114205)

Thank you sir for that Gentlemanly clarification, but yes I understood your meaning at the time, and those other meanings never even crossed my mind.

Very Respectfully
DryWasher

Melting Pot

(12/28/2003; 09:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114229)

The Value of Money

http://www.libertyhaven.com/regulationandpropertyrights/bankingmoneyorfinance/valuemoney.htmlHow Government Creates Money:

Why and how do our "monetary authorities" create such massive quantities of money that inevitably lead to lower money value? During the 1940's, the emergency argument was cited to justify the printing of any quantity the government wanted for the war effort. During the 1960's, the Federal government through its Federal Reserve System was printing feverishly in order to achieve full employment and a more desirable rate of economic growth. Furthermore, the ever-growing public demand for economic redistribution inflicted budgetary deficits, the financing of which was facilitated by money creation.

How was it done? The Federal Reserve has at its disposal three different instruments of control which can be used singly or jointly to change the money supply. It may conduct "open-market purchases," i.e., it buys U.S. Treasury obligations in the capital market and pays for them with newly-created cash or credit. Nearly all the money issued since 1929 was created by this method. Or, the Federal Reserve may lower its discount rate, which is the rate it charges commercial banks for accommodation. If it lowers its rate below that of the market, demand will exceed supply, which the Federal Reserve then stands ready to provide. Or finally, the Federal Reserve may reduce the reserve requirements of commercial banks. Such a reduction will set Federal Reserve money free for loans or investments by commercial banks.

It does not matter how the new money supply is created. The essential fact is the creation by the monetary authorities. You and I cannot print money, for this would be counterfeiting and punishable by law. But our monetary authorities are creating new quantities every day of the week at the discretion of our government leaders.

This fact alone explains why ours is an age of inflation and monetary destruction.

The Desires of individuals for Larger or Smaller Holdings:

The most important determinant of purchasing power of money under this heading of "money-induced factors" is the very attitude of the people toward money and their possession of certain cash holdings. They may decide for one reason or another to increase or reduce their holdings. An increase of cash holdings by many individuals tends to raise the exchange value of money, reduction of cash holdings tends to lower it.

This is so well understood that even the mathematical economists emphasize the money "velocity" in their equations and calculations of money value. Velocity of circulation is defined as the average number of times in a year which a dollar serves as income (the income velocity) or as an expenditure (the transaction's velocity) . Of course, this economic use of a term borrowed from physics ignores acting man who increases or reduces his cash holdings. Even when it is in transport, money is under the control of its owners who choose to spend it or hold it, make or delay payment, lend or borrow. The mathematical economist who weighs and measures, and thereby ignores the choices and preferences of acting individuals, is tempted to control and manipulate this "velocity" in order to influence the value of money. He may even blame individuals (who refuse to act in accordance with his model) for monetary depreciation or appreciation. And governments are only too eager to echo this blame; while they are creating ever new quantities of printing press money, they will restrain individuals in order to control money velocity.

It is true, the propensity to increase or reduce cash holdings by many people exerts an important influence on the purchasing power of money. But in order to radically change their holdings, individuals must have cogent reasons. They endeavor to raise their holdings whenever they foresee depressions ahead. And they usually lower their holdings whenever they anticipate more inflation and declining money value. In short, they tend to react rationally and naturally to certain trends and policies. Government cannot change or prevent this reaction; it can merely change its own policies that brought forth the reaction.

misetich

(12/28/2003; 09:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114230)

Barron's Interview with Hugh Hendry - by Vito J. Racanelli

http://www.barrons.com/Snip:

Q: Today, liquidity is being pumped in by Greenspan, then?
A: Yes. The mechanism is the government-sponsored enterprise sector in America, the Fannie Maes and the Freddie Macs. The U.S. has nationalized the credit-creating process, previously the preserve of the banking sector. Freddie and Fannie can borrow money at almost the risk-free rate. At times of anxiety, they are profit-motivated to expand their balance sheets because government bond yields, the risk-free rate, fall during times of risk aversion. The spread widens between riskier assets like mortgage-backed securities, which Fannie and Freddie buy, and Treasury bonds. The combined balance sheet of Fannie and Freddie is $3 trillion, 30% of the U.S. economy. The annualized growth rate in September and October of their balance sheets was 50%. Now when people talk about M2 or the old monetarism, it hasn't kept pace with the disintermediation, which has gone on in the economy. It doesn't include agency paper. The money supply looks as if it's waning. It's not. There's enormous dollar creation. You can control the domestic price of money. Short-term interest rates have not gone up in America because of this economic Frankenstein. But you can't control the external price: The dollar is weakening versus everything, even versus the ruble.

The response to the crash since March 2000 has been to create even more money. Just as it was 300 years ago. We've created a tidal wave of liquidity, with the Dow back at 10,000. But in doing so, strange things have happened. Gold has broken its 25-year downtrend and has now established an uptrend. The CRB index is at a nine-year high. Oil prices didn't come down after the Iraq war concluded. Strange things are going on in the world at large. But not strange to a citizen of Paris in 1720.
............................
Q: Does this implicitly suggest that you believe in the 20-20 reflation view more than the super-bear scenario?
A: Yes and no. The reinflation scenario is manna from heaven for these stocks. But in deflation, it is ultimately an ownership of these tangible, finite resources if we have the depressionary scenario. Commodities had a very good relative performance in the 1930s. But in a deflationary scenario, you are going to lose money in all equities. You would lose less quickly with some of these. That's where you really want to be in gold. Gold's got nothing to do with mining. Gold works both ways. If we have the deflation scenario, it will be hoarded, on monetary demand rather than on economic demand.
.......................
Q: Is that what you think?
A: It's more than possible. It's broken its 25-year downtrend. Because they're not making any more gold. Whereas [Japan's central bankers] have made a $150 billion worth of yen this year. They've done the same in Hong Kong, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are growing their balance sheets of $3 trillion at a 50% rate. That's why the euro could go to $1.80. The pound sterling could hit $2.20 in 18 months. In that world, gold takes care of itself.
....................

Q: Because everyone thinks interest rates inevitably are going to go up next year?
A: Yes. One eventuality may be that the currency market precipitates a crisis. Currencies have a tendency to overshoot and quickly. The currency market says, 'Let's take it to $1.25 or $1.30...then let's go to the level where if the U.S. is concerned, it will start raising short-term rates.' At that point, you expose the Fed because the Fed will not raise rates. The Fed has taken a bull market in equities and put it into the housing market. The Fed can't raise rates. They have to say, 'You know what, 90% of our population don't have passports, but they have houses. Let the dollar go. You know what? We'll survive.'

The Fed needs to get the 10-year bond yield [now around 4.2%] back to 3% to keep refinancing moving. [Otherwise,] you might have to retrench your consumer spending -- 73% of the economy. Savings will rise, you become more deflationary in your outlook. Bonds work in that environment. The Fed probably can't succeed in getting yields back down to 3%, which is probably why I'm bearish.

********************
Misetich

The Feds are up against the huge currency market. Something is bound to give.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Agingfast

(12/28/2003; 10:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114231)

Paper Avalanche

I'd be baffled by your rejection of historical perspective and the current bullish implications (for the POG) of the correlation between peaks and troughs of the fed funds rate and the POG -- except for the fact that you admit that you're frequently wrong.

More than 20 years ago the Fed's fears of price inflation were reflected by extremely high fed funds rates (and longer rates) and a sharp rise in the POG. But gold, being older and wiser than the Fed, sensed that those high rates would eventually lead to declining price inflation. Therefore, though you may choose to deny it, the price of gold discounted that development and peaked in 1980, in advance of the final peak in the fed funds rate in 1981.

More recently the exactly opposite situation has prevailed. The Fed's fears of price deflation have been reflected by extremely low fed funds rates (and longer rates) and by a rise in the price of gold. Gold sensed that those low rates would eventually lead to higher price inflation. Therefore, though you may choose to deny it, the price of gold discounted that development and troughed in 2001, in advance of the final trough in the fed funds rate, which may still lie ahead.

I can understand your angry rejection of these facts and their bullish implications for the POG, since you admit you are wrong so often, but I'm surprised that your opinion and your anger are shared unanimously, or nearly so, by other forum members.

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 11:35:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114232)

401K limitations

@ Liberty Head

One bear market 401K option is to examine all the investment options and be ready to switch to something like money market ASAP when interest rates start to rise and quell the rally.

Protecting 401K assets in a bear market can be difficult. Matching funds may require a vestment period - essentially freezing them in the account. It might be worthwhile to bug your HR rep about expanding the available options, reminding them of most 401K's dismal 2001-2 [negative] performance. Often the one responsible for 401K administration is monitoring insurance and other benefits simultaneously. This person might have little investing experience and no input beyond sales pitches from the brokerage trustors. If you can make a good case, you might make some friends in HR. If you are not executive level, see if you can convince one of them to back you to save his or her money from oblivion, as well.

My 401K's had very weak bear market options available, so I exercised my once a year option to transfer funds to my IRA. If you can and choose to do this, there are many options available, including a gold IRA trustor to whom CPM will happily refer you.

It's your money, stay informed and proactive.

Paper Avalanche

(12/28/2003; 11:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114233)

@ Agingfast

Your last post provides the critical element by which the flaw of your thesis can be readily demonstrated. At the start of your second or third paragraph you mentioned..

"More than 20 years ago..."

Precisely.

Your mistake is common among novice investors - that is to assume that past performance is indicative of a certain and constant relationship between two variables in the future.

Your argument is predicated on the relationship between fed funds and gold in 1980. In 1980 the political landscape of the world did not allow for the replacement of the dollar as reserve currency. It is different this time.

My rejection of your argument is based on my understanding that all fiat currencies have a finite life time. Your incorrect assumption, IMO, is that the dollar will be the world reserve currency ad infinitim. I believe that you are wrong. Recent changes in world markets (i.e the Shanghai and Dubai exhanges, the introduction of the Euro which espouses the free gold concept, the liberalization of physical gold ownership for 1.5 billion Chinese citizens) seem to indicate that the world is ready to abandon the US dollar as the reserve currency.

Perhaps a better understanding of how systems which are based on exponential growth must inevitably collapse under their own wieght would allow you to better see the flaw in your argument.

PA

Druid

(12/28/2003; 11:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114234)

Data

http://www.economagic.com/

For any of you who enjoy parsing through time series data, the linked URL leads you to a fairly large compilation of government data. Parse with care. Enjoy.

Druid

(12/28/2003; 12:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114235)

Bone Pile

http://www.rense.com/general46/pick.html"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. corporations are picking up the pace in shifting well-paid technology jobs to India, China and other low-cost centers, but they are keeping quiet for fear of a backlash, industry professionals said.

Morgan Stanley estimates the number of U.S. jobs outsourced to India will double to about 150,000 in the next three years. Analysts predict as many as two million U.S. white-collar jobs such as programmers, software engineers and applications designers will shift to low cost centers by 2014.

But the biggest companies looking to "offshoring" to cut costs, such as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , International Business Machines Corp. (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and AT&T Wireless (AWE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , are reluctant to attract attention for political reasons, observers said this week."

Druid: This pace is going to be much faster then what is projected.

a nation of one

(12/28/2003; 13:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114236)

to Liberty Head (12/28/03; 01:46:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114226)

While reading your post, it seemed that two questions needed to be asked.

1. Why did you believe that retirement plans sponsored by governments are primarily in the interest of the individuals who put their money into them? And,

2. What caused you to form the impression that men who seek to get themselves elected to public office are interested in the public good?

The likelyhood that pog will increase is more in agreement with the perception that expansive governments ultimately are more harmful to their own people than useful, and it is less in agreement with the possibly deluded impression that responsible individuals really need any kind of powerful government.

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 13:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114237)

Why is Enron Corp. still eligible to receive U.S. taxpayer money?

http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0613-01.htmsnippit:

"Enron's decision to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection forced the company to forfeit its energy trading operations in the United States and to sell some of its assets.

But a large number of its overseas ventures remain intact. Even as it faces shareholder lawsuits and congressional inquiries, Enron plans to emerge from bankruptcy by carrying on with its global energy services.

Through numerous consortia and subsidiaries, Enron continues to be involved in energy markets in countries throughout the world. Its present assets in Latin America alone include stakes in gas and electricity companies in Brazil and Venezuela, pipelines in Colombia and Bolivia and power plants in Panama, Guatemala and Puerto Rico. In many of these countries, assurances have been given that the problems Enron has in the United States will not affect its local operations.

U.S. taxpayer money has helped build Enron's global empire. A new report by the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington shows that since 1992, Enron-related projects have received more than $4 billion in U.S. government financing. Other public sources such as the World Bank and the European Investment Bank contributed an additional $3 billion."

Goldilox:

I have pondered in the past that ENRON seems to be evading serious legal action as the "Swordfish" of the real world. Here's more evidence that the "oil and gas" powers consider themselves to be "above" the rest of the population. Once the Iraqi adventures are "contained", look for flare-ups in South America. The mineral and resource companies are screaming about the "socialist" leanings of South American leaders who want to control their own natural resources, while the same resource giants involve western banks and government funds to get their deal done. Given South America's general mistrust of the WB and IMF, it may degenerate from business dealings to political argument when the going gets tough in the trenches.

A lot of new mining operations are coming on line in South America. Add this to the burgeoning oil industry in Venezuela and Bolivia, it's not hard to see trouble brewing closer to home next. Funding and press messages will most likely be focused to the "war on drugs", as this works so well to demonize the opposition. Unfortunately, political meddling tends to disrupt rather than enhance resource production, so a likely result is that gold and oil production can expect to suffer setbacks in Sud America.

Boilermaker

(12/28/2003; 13:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114238)

Year End Musing

I've always been fascinated by the sheer size of the stock market and the fact that it's perceived value is based upon the last trade for each of its components. More and more the financial health of the US and many of its people is based upon the stock market. It's become our national bank account, essentially supported by IRA's and 401K's. The constant flows of savings that are directed into stocks have created a sense of wealth that appears real to most of us.
Low interest rates have recently increased the proportion of savings that are directed to stocks vs. interest bearing assets. These same low interest rates have encouraged the withdrawal of home equity and other forms of debt expansion in favor of consumption. The stock market has become essential to the survival of the American Dream.

Then along comes an Enron or a Parmalat that reveals the intrinsic value of a corrupt company. But how many people aside from the tiny group that we know as the USAGOLD Forum are aware that the US$ and the economy that it supports is an Enron walking. We are but one trade away from financial oblivion.

Boilermaker

Waverider

(12/28/2003; 13:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114239)

Druid

http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htmThanks for the data link...here's another that may be of interest to you. Cheers!

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 13:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114240)

More Retailers are making a point of "No returns"

http://www.nypost.com/business/44221.htmsnippit:

This may be the season of many happy returns - but not for harried holiday shoppers looking to exchange unwanted Christmas gifts.
Retailers have been steadily ratcheting up restrictions on their return policies, in an attempt to lower what they say are the high costs of funneling all that unwanted merchandise back to their store shelves.
Most retailers now require receipts before taking back unwanted goods - even on gift items. Some go a step further. Best Buy, for instance, charges a 15 percent "restocking" fee on consumer electronic products that have been opened.
Britt Beemer, founder of America's Research Group, which surveys thousands of consumers during the holiday season, estimates that five years ago 45 percent of Americans returned or exchanged some item after Christmas. This year, he expects only 15 percent of Americans to do so - in part, because of increasingly restrictive return policies on the part of retailers.
Consumers in his surveys have cited frustration with store return policies - including the annoyance of walking around with a store credit - as one reason they are increasingly turning to gift cards. Sales of gift cards, a credit card that functions like an old-fashioned paper gift certificate, are expected to increase 20 percent this year to $45 million, according to Bain & Co.
Wal-Mart has said higher demand this year for gift cards, which aren't counted as revenue until they are redeemed, may boost results later in the season.
"Retailers have become much more restrictive on returns," Beemer said. "It's been one of the biggest shifts in retailing."

Goldilox:

Keeping receipts is always a good idea (or paying with a card to create an electronic trail), but retailers are even less interested in refunding revenues in a year that has brought little or no sales growth.

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 13:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114241)

Santa's elves left out in cold

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3343909.stmsnippit:

"Something will definitely be missing this Christmas." Santapark operators say they had no choice but to cut their elf staff down to size."We used to have 120 people on a monthly salary, which was ridiculous," , managing director Wille Rajala told AP. "Now we are down to three full-timers. "The work is seasonal so we have to cut costs in all possible ways."

Elves in cave

Santapark is visited by tens of thousands of people a year, nearly all of them during the main winter opening season. They are shown into a huge cave where the attractions include elves selling souvenirs. But critics say there is nothing to draw people back for repeat visits, and few attractions built around the Christmas story. The park, which opened in November 1998 near the Arctic Circle, is not in profit and has six-figure debts.

Santapark was built in a former bomb shelter which needed further excavation and huge technical investment. It is thought that the huge set-up costs are among the financial impediments.

Goldilox:

Oh, dem bones . . . it looks like even Santa is suffering from budget deficits.

Liberty Head

(12/28/2003; 14:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114242)

a nation of one

a nation of one,

I think you may have made some false assumptions about my beliefs.
Your questions seem more like statements disguised as questions, false statements at that.
My belief is only that participating in 401k plans to obtain the matching funds may be better than not participating at all.
Like any other card I'm dealt, I endevor to play it as well as I can.
Furthermore, I assure you that I generally hold elected politicians in the lowest regard possible, Ron Paul excluded.

I hope that clears things up.

Best Wishes

Gold Standard

(12/28/2003; 15:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114243)

Charting generally

To anyone of charting/mathematical inclination at the Table:

As a non-mathematician, I was under the impression that logarithmic scaling on graphs was only useful (and, indeed, statistically valid) where the dataset has the potential to increase (or decrease) exponentially. Say, for instance, like the 10 year POG in 2009. :)

Where we have a dataset within finite bounds (say, for example, the Dow, Nasduck or S&P 500) I am at a loss to ascertain any advantage in using a logarithmic scale. Indeed, a log scale visually highlights changes in data at the lowest points of the scale, and visually clouds similar or greater changes at the upper end of the scale.

To my untrained eye, this exaggeration of low points and obfuscation of the upper points adds nothing to the visual statistical analysis of the chart - can anyone explain in simple terms why a log scale is necessary?

Cheers! GS
PS Thx for your help, Randy!

R Powell

(12/28/2003; 17:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114244)

Dollar stronger

It's just light overnight trading but the dollar is up slightly. Will tomorrow see a relief rally after a holiday market break that saw nothing unusually horrendous of a man-made killing nature? Not that the usual violence is acceptable but, thankfully, there was nothing spectacular.

I just finished "Gold Wars". I would not be at all surprised, after having finished the book, to find out that the author has been among us for many years. Thanks, Mr. Lips, for the book.

I believe "The Dollar Crisis" is next. Santa left a copy for me under the tree. Thanks Santa. I still read with pen and ruler for underlining so that I can quickly review. My poor brain needs repetition to attain comprehension and some retention. Poor old brain!
I'm ready, let the markets open !!!
Rich

R Powell

(12/28/2003; 18:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114245)

That was quick

Now the dollar is down. All the listed currencies except the British pound are down. If they're all down, what are they down against? Oh, btw, POG is up a bit.

Toolie

(12/28/2003; 20:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114247)

Eleven Guidelines for the Respectful Poster

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guidelines.htmlMelting pot-(not related to link or subject.) I really enjoyed your post yesterday. It was tops! I could feel your enthusiasm.

Ten Bears

(12/28/2003; 20:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114249)

Scatter shooting

Druid, thanks for the economagic link. An interesting comparison of data available at that site is the relationship of total annual tax revenue to total government annual interest payments. (One reason why over the last several years interest rates have been lowered.)

Melting Pot, thanks for your enlightening post this weekend

OT, "Old age generally cures the arrogance of youth." Yet there is one among us who professes great old age but posts with a cocksure arrogance. If he would but reveal the youth formula that produces such an apparent age reversal, some of us old geezers might find a way to put it to more pleasurable use than argumentative posts at a sound-money advocates site.

Waverider

(12/28/2003; 21:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114250)

Gold Standard

http://www.marketmasters.com.au/articles/chartingtraps.phphttp://www.crbindex.com/techtip/tipv2n15.htm

I am new studying TA but my understanding is that when there are significant percentage movements in prices (as with Gold and Gold stocks), log scales provide a more accurate visual perspective than arithmetic scales. Actually, keep in mind that "semi-log" scales are used as the time axis is still linear whereas the vertical distances represent percentage price changes (the distance on a log chart from 10-20 is the same as from 40-80). The advantages are that comparisons at different price levels are more valid and the slope of the chart is more accurate for trend analysis as it reflects exponential functions (see the Hang Seng Index examples). If you look at the DOW example provided, you'll see that obfuscation of the long-term perspective actually tends to occur with the arithmetic scale. A dataset can be charted on either scale and TA software programs allow for both. I'm actually not too crazy about math and I'm not at the point of constructing my own charts yet so someone more experienced than I may have comments to add. Cheers,

Waverider

Remarx

(12/28/2003; 21:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114251)

Congressman Ron Paul on the Stealth Patriot Act II

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/12/20031213-3.htmlComments of Ron Paul, Congressman for Texas on HR 2417 :
It appears we are witnessing a stealth enactment of the enormously unpopular "Patriot II" legislation that was first leaked several months ago. Perhaps the national outcry when a draft of the Patriot II act was leaked has led its supporters to enact it one piece at a time in secret. Whatever the case, this is outrageous and unacceptable. I urge each of my colleagues to join me in rejecting this bill and its incredibly dangerous expansion of Federal police powers.

Clink!

(12/28/2003; 21:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114252)

Charting @ Gold Standard

Now there's an open-ended question ! If I can reply without oversimplifying, the whole purpose of charting is to allow the human eye to discern a pattern which is not readily evident by merely looking at tables of numbers. It really depends what you are trying to see. On a linear scale, a change of a fixed amount will show up as the same vertical distance whatever the starting point. On a logarithmic scale, the same percentage changes will show up as the same vertical distance. Why would you use one or the other ? As an example, take the value of MZM over the last few years. On a linear chart, you can see that it is curving up, which allows you to say that, all other things being equal, it will increase more in 2004 than in 2003. But by how much ? Well, if you plot the same thing on a logarithmic chart, the slope of the line corresponds to the rate of increase of MZM. If it's a straight line, it will increase by the same percentage amount in 2004 as in 2003. If it is a rising curve but is bending over to the right, it means that the rising tendancy is slowing. If it is curving up, that indicates that whatever was causing it to increase in the first place is not only still doing it but the effect is getting more powerful.

So, in general, you use linear plots to see changes, and logarithmic ones to see rates of change. There is no hard and fast rule about timescales or the size of changes.

Hope this helps,
C!

Caradoc

(12/28/2003; 22:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114253)

Thoughts for Agingfast

No one here has disagreed with the historical inverse relationship between Fed funds rate and POG that you posted some days ago. Some (including me) are actually interested in any implications for the future. You have repeatedly been asked whether you believe the US dollar will continue as the world's reserve currency. The apparent intent of these questions was to ascertain the extent to which you believe the historical inverse relationship may have implications for those making investment decisions today.

Yet you refuse to answer the questions. Instead, you use CAPITAL LETTERS to scream that there really has been an inverse relationship over recent decades while making snide comments to those you say don't understand what you've been saying. Could be that most of the readers of this forum understand you very well indeed.

Your haughty attitude in claiming expertise in subjects ranging from economics to ancient history (while failing to deliver the goods) reminds me of a kid in my neighborhood during the summer between third grade and fourth grade. Among other things, this nine-year-old claimed to possess a copy of the first Superman comic book. Quite enviable at the time if true. He even had a couple of the younger kids in the neighborhood following him around asking for details and regarding him with some sort of awe. You know what, Agingfast? None of us liked him and we all avoided him as much as possible. Despite that, I would hope that during the last half century he accomplished one or two things in his life that would give him the sort of quiet self-respect that would make it unnecessary either to brag about himself or to attempt to score points by attacking others.

I'll close with a few lines from "Disiderata" (approximately, "Things to be desired") by Max Erhman:

Go Placidly amid the Noise & Haste &
remember what Peace there may be in silence.

As far as possible without surrender
be on good terms with all persons.

Speak your truth quietly & clearly;
and listen to others, even the dull & ignorant, they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons,
they are vexations to the spirit.
If you compare yourself with others,
you may become vain & bitter;
for always there will be greater & lesser persons than
yourself.

Caradoc

Gold Standard

(12/28/2003; 22:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114254)

Charting - @Clink! & Lady Waverider

The scales have dropped from my eyes!

It is the RATE of change that a log scale will clearly show, rather than the change in actual comparative value.

Fr'instance, if I charted the POS against the POG over the last 12 months or so, it would show a higher trendline in a log chart as opposed to an arithmetic chart.

Glory be! I'm going to end up as a tea-leaf reader!

Many thanks, friends!

Cheers! GS

DummyANI

(12/28/2003; 23:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114255)

What will happen, if gold bullions are disappeared from the LBMA ?

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary26.html#anchor25233@Boilermaker (12/27/03; 07:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 114167)

According to the LBMA graph-data, gold trading volumes on the LBMA are as follows.
The 45-th month (from March 96) 27.5 million ounces per day equal to 855 ton per day
The 90-th month (from March 96) 14.5 million ounces per day equal to 451 ton per day

The above declining data indicates that the declining ratio of trading volumes is equal to 13 / 45 equal to 0.2889 million ounces per month ( 8.98 ton per month).

In Nov. 2003, the average trading volume is 13.7 moz per day( 426 ton per day). A simple predicting data are telling that in Oct. 2007, gold bullions are disappeared from the LBMA.

Nov. 03 13.70 moz (426 ton per day)
Feb. 04 12.83 moz (399 ton per day)
Jan. 05 09.94 moz (300 ton per day)
Dec. 05 06.48 moz (201 ton per day)
Nov. 06 03.30 moz (103 ton per day)
Oct. 07 00.12 moz (004 ton per day)

It is very interesting to see that until Dec. 2004, gold bullions are supplied only at 309 ton per day, this is nearly a quarter of Oct. 1999 level.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 23:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114256)

Singapore's Economic Woes

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/63512/1/.htmlsnip:

SINGAPORE : Much uncertainty and fear brought Singapore's economy to its knees this year. Painful measures had to be taken to keep the economy afloat, save jobs and maintain Singapore's competitiveness. Singapore's economy started the year with much uncertainty about the war against Iraq. But what took the market by surprise was the outbreak of SARS.

The economy was hit, with Gross Domestic Product contracting 3.8 percent in the second quarter, sparking fears of another recession. But it rebounded in the third quarter, rising 1.7 percent as fallout from SARS eased. Massive lay-offs were carried out across all sectors of the economy.

Goldilox:

From Admin's news posts, this article highlights the effects that imbalances are imposing on the asian microeconomies as the "sleeping tiger" awakens. Singapore, a nation not previously plagued by layoffs, is joining the ranks of "bone pile" victims. . . dem bones, dem bones.

Gonlyold

(12/28/2003; 23:24:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114257)

Interesting Insite Applied to 911 & the Pentagon

Goldilox said (msg #114148),

"Finally, the above ground portion of the dome at DC is very much smaller than any skyscraper and very low to ground, so it would be a very difficult target to hit with anything but intelligent guided munitions.

When the Isrealis bombed Iraq's reactor, they used fighters armed with the best laser guided bombs and their finest pilots in order to get the job done. Anything less than a fully armed fighter or bomber would be totally ineffective."

Although GL was referring to nuclear installations, I find his statements appliicable to the 911 tragedy at the Pentagon. Many feel that a pilot could not have the ability to fly an airplane into the Pentagon but that a missile, even perhaps the drone Goldenhawk(? I think that's the right name), could have done the job. It's interesting that GL inadvertantly collaborates this "conspiricy" theory.

BTW, to those of you who had replies to my post about the eqalities of gold, fiat money, and Who Owns the Gold, some weeks back, I haven't forgot about those requests. It's just that in trying to go back to my archives, i.e., stored boxes, to present the documentation, I find that I didn't keep all my info in one place. Had to give up and am presently seeking current sources. Do be patient. I have it on my list. Probably another month or so as it's not high on my list right now.

Gonlyold

(12/28/2003; 23:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114258)

Just Remembered...

It's the Globalhawk, not the Goldenhawk. Must have had gold on my mind.

Caradoc

(12/28/2003; 23:38:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114259)

Gold at 413.00 bid (+1.20); Silver at 5.78 (+0.04)

These interim highs aren't bad for the beginning of an "off week." Looks like we'll need log-log paper to chart the change in the rate of change for 2004.

Best analogy for POG is still the basketball being released from the bottom of the swimming pool: shoots up fast, goes higher than the level it would have floated at, and ends up where it ought to be. My crystal ball says that anything over $3,640 per ounce is frothy. If it's like the previous high over $800, plan to take profits within a day or two of network TV talking about people taking grandma's trinkets to the smelter.

With recent US Eagles being denominated as fifty dollars, my 3,640 figure would allow a better than 70-to-1 currency devaluation. ("Sorry about that, Japan. You too, China.") After the devaluation, I might be willing to let some Eagles go if a small handful would pay for an automobile. Could be that for convenience I'd even accept paper dollars at that rate if I knew that fifty of them could be exchanged for the real thing. Of course, that's only true for the newer Eagles. The MS-64 Saint Gaudens are another story altogether.

Caradoc

Goldilox

(12/28/2003; 23:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114260)

Eagles for a car?

@ Caradoc

"After the devaluation, I might be willing to let some Eagles go if a small handful would pay for an automobile."

I trust you meant a NEW auto, as a tube of Eagles can get any number of used cars already, especially in the deflated used car market.

Caradoc

(12/29/2003; 00:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114261)

Goldilocks: "Eagles for a car?"

Yes, 4 or 5 eagles would pay for a decent new car. But I'm cheap so I'd rather pay 3 Eagles for a low-mileage used vehicle. When you start talking entire rolls of new Eagles you'd better be looking at acreage, not automobiles.

Caradoc

Goldilox

(12/29/2003; 00:06:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114262)

Acreage

@ Caradoc

OCEAN FRONT Acreage, at that!

Caradoc

(12/29/2003; 00:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114263)

Goldilox: "Oceanfront..."

Or villa with a view of the Mediterranean...

Caradoc

PS: Spot just jumped to 413.10 and back to 413. Frisky rascal, that Spot. I'll enjoy his antics tomorrow but it's getting late here.

Tate

(12/29/2003; 07:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114264)

Gold is money - Gold is the only universal currency

****Gold is money - Gold is the only universal currency. Always has been - always will be. To think otherwise is be the gullible and naive victim of the illusions created by the politicians.****
I may add: politicians installed by world banking cartel.
Since no currency is directly linked to gold or any other tangible asset it is fraud. No paper currency represents definable amount of labor needed to produce it. They are all out of thin air product. Toilet paper in fact is more valuable, since it serves definite purpose and does not loose its value in unused form. Smile.
Happy New Year.

krash

(12/29/2003; 07:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114265)

China may reconsider yuan peg, analysts say

http://www.iht.com/articles/123039.htmlExcerpt from the IHT Dec. 29 (originally from Bloomberg):

China, which this year has resisted international pressure to revalue its currency, may agree to bury the yuan's decade-old peg to the dollar in 2004 as it looks for ways to cool economic growth and ward off inflation, investors and analysts say.

In recent months, China has been buying the U.S. currency in international markets in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate of around 8.28 yuan per dollar, which was set in 1994. The effort, which puts more money into circulation in China, threatens to exacerbate inflation, which the government has said accelerated to a rate 3 percent in November, the fastest in six and a half years..........

comment -- if this doesn't lower the US$ even further and boost the price of gold in US$s, i don't know what will...

The Invisible Hand

(12/29/2003; 07:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114266)

1.25 with more upward potential

http://www.handelsblatt.comSNIP:
Euro klettert erstmals �ber 1,25 Dollar-Marke
Bei ruhigem Handel hat der Euro zum Dollar am Montagmittag ein neues Allzeithoch und erstmals mehr als 1,25 Dollar erreicht. In der Spitze notierte die europ�ische Gemeinschaftsw�hrung auf einem Stand von 1,2511 Dollar und erreichte damit ihren h�chsten Stand seit Einf�hrung an den Finanzm�rkten im Januar 1999. Marktteilnehmer sehen weiteres Aufw�rtspotenzial.

CoBra(too)

(12/29/2003; 09:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114267)

@TIH - Translation

Euro klettert erstmals �ber 1,25 Dollar-MarkeIn case your German isn't as good as TIH's, may I offer a brief translation from the Handelsblatt snippet -

'Bei ruhigem Handel hat der Euro zum Dollar am Montagmittag ein neues Allzeithoch und erstmals mehr als 1,25 Dollar erreicht. In der Spitze notierte die europ�ische Gemeinschaftsw�hrung auf einem Stand von 1,2511 Dollar und erreichte damit ihren h�chsten Stand seit Einf�hrung an den Finanzm�rkten im Januar 1999. Marktteilnehmer sehen weiteres Aufw�rtspotenzial.'

Translation:

"Euro climbs over 1.25 dollars - first time -ever-!
In quiet trading the � has reached an all-time high of over 1.25 against the dollar at Monday noon. At its peak the European Union's currency traded at 1.2511 and reached its new all time high since its introduction on the financial markets in January of 1999. Market perticipants envision further potential."

Thanks - cb2

(12/29/2003; 09:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114268)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlBreaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/29/2003; 09:24:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114269)

An Invitation to Prospective Clients . . . . Enter the market with grace and confidence.

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Simply Me

(12/29/2003; 09:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114270)

Latest article linked on News and Views page

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlTop headline: Gold rivals dollar as global currency

If you click on the (more) link at the end of the top headline, you read an article that appears to be about the present. But then, about halfway down the page is this....

Though the Washington agreement on gold did indeed get renewed in September 2004 with minor changes, it died an unsung death five years later when various central banks decided to keep their gold intact - and add to it if possible.

...which talks about the future in present tense.
???????

Did somebody dial Miss Cleo?
Simply

Great Albino Bat

(12/29/2003; 11:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114271)

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/amser/chrono15.html

The GAB found this at a neighboring site.

"A History of Money - From Ancient Times to the Present Day"

By Glyn Davies, U. of Wales Press, 1996

At the site you will find a synopsis of the contents in three sections. This page is 1921-1938.

Well worth reading and keeping for reference.

The GAB

Pizz

(12/29/2003; 11:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114272)

Hot Dollars

Here's a golden thought for all, or maybe a silvery thought, since that seems to be the action today. . .(smiling Rich?)

When you watch what the markets are saying, it would appear that some think that holding and buying US stocks just may be better than the US dollar. Hmmm. . .

It would also appear that many have used dollars to buy commodities. . . but then someone else is holding the dollars, and on and on. (Say buddy, would you happen to have a few Euros laying around instead of this "funny money"?) Kind of like a hot potatoe. And as hundreds of billions (some may say trillions) of hot dollars bounce around, hmmm. . .a little volitility coming our way???

Makes you wonder where the dollar home of last resort may be. My wife's Barbi Doll collection may not be such a bad investment after all. . . .

Pizz

Aristotle

(12/29/2003; 12:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114273)

Simply Me, I'm especially struck by two comments from the reporter in his time machine

http://www.business-standard.com/smart/story.asp?Menu=29&story=30822My hat's off to Sangita Shah. It was a clever article, and I'm glad at the way it set up a point and counterpoint on a very important issue.

Point:

"The launch of trading in gold futures and options around 2003-04 gave a further fillip to India's interest in gold with retail investors dematerialising up to 50 per cent of their physical holdings of the metal."

Alas! Read that selection as many times as needed to fully absorb its meaning. Ruminate especially on the meaning of *dematerialising*. That, my friends, was a BRILLIANT choice of words.

So why, you might ask, am I crying "alas!" in one breath while singing the praises of this brilliant sentence in the next breath? Because it shows us again so clearly how Gold has been and can continue to be marginalized out of pocket; specifically as a feeble sort of equivalent contract, thus reduced by mankind to an ethereal element of law enforcement rather than the imutable subtance of wealth it is if used in its most natural state. Alas, I say again! Can you not see how the "dematerialising" of tangible wealth is what has blurred the lines between property and money, and has opened to door to so many national abuses and the appropriation of naive people's savings through inflation and monetary depreciation?

Anyone who continues to insist that Gold is money had better think long and hard about the long-term effect of the "dematerialising" process.

And now the article's happy Counterpoint:

"However, the decisive impact came from the decision of most monetary authorities to reinstate the importance of gold in their official reserves. [...] Despite some murmurs from economists [surely employed by the "bullion bankers" pursuing dematerialisation schemes] about the inefficiencies involved in holding gold, most central bankers appear to have decided that prudence is the better part of valour."

Amen. Nothing more to add. Look to Europe as an example of a dematerialized monetary system (euro) seeking harmony with a Gold market in a full material form. A glorious thing to behold, and I wish them Godspeed.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Tranquility Base

(12/29/2003; 12:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114274)

Pizz's identity revealed

Pizz. You've let your identity out. You are Dan Quayle! Potatoe?
Tranquility base here. Just paying attention.

Mr Gresham

(12/29/2003; 12:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114275)

Hi Yo Silver, Away!

http://members.tripod.com/~ClaytonMoore/lonergtv.wavA fiery horse with the speed of light, a cloud of dust, and a hearty "Hi Yo, Silver"!

Return with us now to those thrilling days of yesteryear...

(Methinks, hmmm, maybe if the Wizard of Oz was a coded story about gold, then the LR...)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/29/2003; 12:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114276)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

If the DMR should appear a little strange today it is most likely that I am on a "foreign" computer and stranded in Utah as a blizzard hit Christmas day and blowing wind will likely keep me marooned here for the next couple of days.

Otherwise a good day for gold as the yellow pushed higher on a weaker US dollar as expected. Some precious metals analysts are simply crying in their beer on this one after having made solid predictions of a large scale gold "sell off" as the year closes. However, the huge current account and budget deficits will keep any "strong dollar policy" shut down and the door open for higher PM prices.

BTW, Gandy will be glad to hear that I saw "Lord Of The Rings" the other night.

Jon H. Warner

Pizz

(12/29/2003; 12:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114277)

Ok, so I can't type fast and spelling ain't my strong suit. . .

but to confuse me with Dan? He's the good lookin' one - right?

Pizz

Federal_Reserves

(12/29/2003; 12:25:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114278)

FED pumping again

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.aspStocks soar!

Why ask why?

koala bear

(12/29/2003; 13:53:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114280)

How to get a Chinese haircut

Goldbugs the world over have enthusiastically retold the fact that China has opened the way for its citizens to buy gold. This means that potentially millions of Chinese investors could buy physical gold and make the price skyrocket [I wish]. But Chinese investors could soon learn what their South African counterparts already know; buying gold in an undervalued currency results in a loss, OUCH! Hopefully for the South African and Chinese this effect [haircut] wont last too long.

R Powell

(12/29/2003; 14:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114281)

BIS news in pdf form

1 new document(s) found since 23.12.2003:

1. Philipp Hildebrand: The Swiss National Bank?s view of international financial markets against the background of trends in the United States (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (29.12.2003 10:23)
Introductory remarks by Philipp Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the end-of-year media news conference, Zurich, 12 December 2003.
http://www.bis.org/review/r031223c.pdf (PDF, 91824 bytes)

a nation of one

(12/29/2003; 14:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114282)

To Liberty Head (12/28/03; 14:11:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114242)

Good enough. And of course everyone is entitled to -and is an object of- his own view.

But maybe it would be good if you would look into exactly what the interests are, of those who created the government-encouraged retirement investment plans.

I can't help seeing them as means by which those in power have enhanced their ability to influence what a statistically significant portion of the public do with their money. If someone makes you pay a penalty for moving your own money from one place to another, how can that be in your best interest? Just because you avoid paying a few dollars in taxes or penalties? I don't think so. And what about the effects it has on your own free will? That's more important, ultimately. And harder to repair too. And how about when some entity determines when you may remove your wealth from those accounts? If it makes you leave it there so long that it evaporates, do you think that is a coincidence? Whose interests are such actions in? Yours? No. If millions of citizens all keep their money in stocks, long after they otherwise would, on account of such incentives, whose interest is that in? Not theirs. I would ask myself the following question, not rhetorically, but as a question that has a real answer that needs to be understood: Do I really believe that it is just a coincidence that the way I have to manage my money -in order to comply with the rules- causes me to want to leave my investments in places where my wealth diminishes?

There is no substitute for gold, in hand, in pocket, in a safe place, and not under the supervision, or advisement, of the grocery store owner down the street, the opera singer on the fourth floor, or the guy my neighbors elected to congress.

If this makes you mad, I agree that you have a good reason to be angry. But I don't agree that I am the cause of it.

Aristotle

(12/29/2003; 14:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114283)

A Nation of One's note to Liberty Head

Great message!!

G. Gys. --- Ari

Cytek

(12/29/2003; 16:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114284)

It looked like the Pumps were on full.

Gold/silver up.

Market up.

Interest rates up.

Go figure.

Basil

(12/29/2003; 17:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114285)

Gasoline Prices

With crude holding well above $32 a bbl for awhile (not a spike)--why are gasoline prices at the pump staying relatively low??
Last two tanks in Pueblo at under $1.32 per gallon.
What gives?

I sense PTB twisting arms so enabling JoeSP to happily guzzle his Caddy SUV down I-25 at 95mph for awhile longer.

How long will total fed BS re the great economy,low inflation,great war progress,happy forever after continue?

Goldilox

(12/29/2003; 17:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114286)

Gasoline (and other) prices

@ Basil, et al . . .

It should not be news to anyone here that TPTB want the rosy picture to remain so as close to November as possible. Containment is the watchword in Warshington. As no plan is ever executed flawlessly, take advantage while you can.

As for post-November, see BB's advice. get gold, food, water, and OUT of debt.

Druid

(12/29/2003; 18:32:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114287)

Europe Considers Controls, But Dollar Crisis Is Systemic

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2003/3050euro_vs_dollar.html
"A small wonder occurred on the foreign exchange markets on Tuesday, Dec. 9. On all eight of the previous trading days in succession, the U.S. dollar had fallen to new historic lows against the euro. Against currencies with longer histories like the British pound, the dollar had sunk at the same time to its lowest level in 11 years. But then on the 9th, the dollar's plunge was temporarily halted. Had a prospect for the continued financing of the gigantic foreign indebtedness of the United States suddenly come to light? Not at all. The pause for breath in the dollar's descent was much more the result of a special cause: renewed, massive interventions by the Bank of Japan to force the currency markets�in blatant opposition to the liberal economic dogma of free "floating" exchange rates.

During the course of 2003, the Bank of Japan has spent, by its own reports, an astonishing 17.8 trillion yen (roughly the equivalent of $165 billion) in such interventions. It has done this in the thus-far vain hope of braking the rise of the yen against the dollar, which is damaging Japan's exports. The interventions take place on orders of the government; the central bank is only their executive organ. In order to generate the financial means required for this enormous purchasing of dollar paper, the government of Japan has had to increase its issue of its own debt, during its current legislative session, to a total of 79 trillion yen, or $731 billion.

But this barricade could already be broken down within the next week. Therefore on Dec. 11, the Japanese Finance Ministry set the prospect of an upper level of debt issuance for the full year, including this exchange market intervention, of a round 100 trillion yen�$926 billion! If necessary, said Ministry official Hiroshi Watanabe, it would be possible to adopt retroactively an emergency provision and let the Bank of Japan issue foreign debt directly."

Druid: An interesting read from an interesting perspective. Enjoy.

Druid: Lady Waiverider, you're quite welcome and thank you for providing the other link. Now I have two pretty good databases to select from which I can use to torture myself with. Ten Bears, excellent analysis concerning tax revenues and low interest payments. Politically speaking there is no way in hell they want rates high because that will further add fuel to a fire that is already way out of control.

mikal

(12/29/2003; 18:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114288)

@Goldilox

Re: Post November elections as the agent of the alleged suspension of economic animation in 2004.

I understand how it appears to many, including yourself, to be a major reason for policy decisions. Politics is newsprint and many citizen's hope for resolution of issues and promised improvements to their lives. Emotional triggers that two parties can exploit to marginalize real issues and induce devotion and loyalty, personality obsession and worship as much as hatred, fanaticism and irrational bigotry and intolerance.

But can geopolitics, equities, bonds, currencies, houdini accounting, derivative personal and corporate debt, state and federal debt, gold and so on, be transported into this other universe wholly controlled by seemingly all-powerful Republicans? Democrats? IMF? FED? UN?
Could it become a self-fulfilling prophecy once the masters coaxed the world's market movers to follow the mesmerized sheeples through some intergalactic financial wormhole?
I don't buy it, not even if "9/11- The Sequel" should play and replay on every big screen.
Regards.

Goldilox

(12/29/2003; 18:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114289)

Policy Decisions

@ Mikal

My only point is that the foremost policy driver for any politician in a campaign year is the campaign itself. I made no mention of fixing any social or fiscal ills, but rather that appearances are critical to reelection. The masses will get as rosey a picture as possible to buy their ill informed vote.

As to your point - I am not in any disagreement, but then, I am not running for office.

R Powell

(12/29/2003; 18:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114290)

Clink and Caradoc // silver

Clink, from (114252), logarithmic = rate of increase (or decrease). Simply stated so that now I finally understand. Thanks!

Caradoc, from (114253), identifying "Disiderata" as the source of the needlepoint work my mom copied years ago onto a pillowcase. She's long gone now but I have her work still and now know its name. Thank you indeed!

Off now to look for any news of silver other than the usual "moved with the POG" or "safe haven from the declining dollar". Yah, we know, and some trader will say a small updraft caught open "buy" orders or the market released some pent-up energy but...is there nothing more substantial? Hey, maybe there isn't. Maybe declining dollar says it all. Everything else I watch has changing supply and demand numbers, published weekly with a myriad (haven't used that word in a while) of constantly changing price factors that can be monitored. I really believe silver trades in a total supply and demand information vacuum. Imagine, for a moment, what a physical shortage would do to this market. It would look like a reverse of the live cattle chart. There are fortunes being exchanged in the meat markets this week.
Any news of the metal of the moon?
Rich

Goldilox

(12/29/2003; 19:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114291)

self-fulfilling prophesies

@ mikal

I don't want to go too far into this issue, but it appears to me that too many people have capitulated to ancient prophesies of doom (conjured up by all manner of prophetics and psychotics - not to be confused with genuinely spiritual folk who might also subscribe to any particular religion) and given up trying to help make the world a better place for their progeny.

Their theory can often be summed up as "Oh well, it's all gonna end soon, so I better get mine!", or worse, "Kill them all, and let GOD sort them out."

IMHO, before civilization can be resume a healthier course, this fatalistic attitude must morph into "I know it can get better, and I want to be part of the effort."

Fully aware that posters here bring many varying individual agendas (a good thing, IMO), I am much encouraged by those who espouse things like a GOLD STANDARD and FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY to improve the body politic. Belief structures are a good thing, but less useful without appropriate actions. What was Issac's response to dried up water supplies? "Pick up the shovel, and dig another well."

Ok no more political soap box for me. I've been trying to stay on Admin's good side.

Goldilox

(12/29/2003; 20:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114292)

Spot - the global pooch!!

Interesting how Spot was driven down to $412 at the NY close and jumped almost immediately to open again in Sydney back up over $414.

They can't keep a good dog down!

Goldendome

(12/29/2003; 20:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114293)

Gold/Silver ratio approaches 70: Going down.

Gold/silver ratio Dec.19-----------71.701 to 1
Gold/silver ratio Dec.29---------- 70.51------Down 1.19

Gold/silver ratio end of May 2003, pick a date ----About 80 to 1.

When was the last time that the Gold/silver ratio was under 70 ?? I have no idea...But I think the next time under 70 to 1, may be very soon now!

This is just a little exercise, that I have been keeping an eye on for the past several months. And before you all start to send me your hate mail about how I'm trying to disrespect Gold: Give it up!! I own both, and thus have two dogs in the same fight--much more heavily favored in Gold side, I should add!!

We all know the numbers game: Small gains added to small numbers make for a larger percentage gain, than do larger numbers added to much larger numbers. So--my point is, that the gains percentage wise over the past 6 months in Silver, have been larger than the percentage gains in Gold.

Gold is the tug, pulling the Silver dingy, but as many have remarked-- even here, the Gold/Silver ratio seems to have gone way out of wack in the twentieth century plus, and perhaps (as gold is priced out of reach to small investors) that pendulum may be swinging back in the direction of Silver, as Silver assumes the role once again as, "the poor man's gold."

Liberty Head

(12/29/2003; 21:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114294)

a nation of one, Aristotle

I quite agree with you about the nature of the 401k beast. I do get the impression that you may have made some false assumptions about the way I think because I happen to have a 401k.
Many folks, like myself, work for companies that automatically place funds in a 401k plan for their employees. This takes place regardless of our personal view of the stock market, gold or whatever. Dollar for dollar matching of contributions is a strong incentive, as well.
Is it risky?
Crossing the street is risky, but I would not assume that anyone who crosses a street is ignorant of the risk.
I would rather assume they know what they are doing, even if I don't.

Best Wishes

Lady Liberty

(12/29/2003; 21:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114295)

Msg # of BB's reference to ready water source in future?

Hi-
Just joined forum. Saw brief reference to Black Beard's post about ensuring a ready water supply in future. Could someone supply message # of that? TIA

Aristotle

(12/29/2003; 21:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114296)

Assorted

Liberty Head:
The very fact that you're posting here is as good an indication as any that your financial fate is probably in more capable hands than could be said of Random Joe.

Goldendome:
I won't belabor the point, but don't be surprised when time bears this out -- silver isn't so much poor man's Gold as it is rich man's copper.

Days passing into history continue to bear out that the niche atop the wealth hit parade tolerates the residency of one alone, and that one, we are shown, is Gold.

Study bimetalism... study Gresham's law... no need to take me at my word. You, too, will discover this in probably less total time than I did.

To what end?

Methinks Nature abhors a redundancy with the same vigor as she abhors a vacuum.

Meaning...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Waverider

(12/29/2003; 22:33:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114297)

Goldendome

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s21672208]&disp=O"When was the last time that the Gold/silver ratio was under 70 ?? I have no idea..."

Waverider: Goldendome - scroll down to chart 5.1 at the attached link and you will find a log chart of the Gold:Silver ratio going back to 1981. Cheers!

Waverider

(12/29/2003; 23:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114298)

Lady Liberty

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlI have attached the link for todays Daily Market Report (DMR) by Black Blade. He has repeatedly recommended that we fully prepare for difficult times ahead by getting (and staying) out of debt, ensuring we have portfolio insurance (physical Gold), and preparing necessities for daily living such as a one year supply of food, water, cash, etc. In other words, prepare/practice being totally self-sufficient in case TSHTF, or for natural disasters, etc. I don't believe there are specific links as per your request, but you will hear this message on occasion in the DMR. Cheers,
Waverider

slingshot

(12/30/2003; 00:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114299)

Midas Crusade

The next day Gandalf and Cougar were up with the rising of the sun. Again they moved along the river to find a crossing. As they searched, their hopes diminished for the banks of the Epis become too steep for the wagons and their weight. Another night in the woods, farther away,Gandalf thought. Time, measured by distance, now became a problem.
Cougar could see Gandalfs unrest. We will find a crossing, said Cougar as he watch Gandalf puff on his long pipe and blow smoke rings that passed threw each other as they rose.
And we will, replied Gandalf. Both drew close to the fire as the night become cold.
Then came the sound of a horse's exhale and the breaking of the surrounding brush. Cougar had taken hold of his axe and awaited the appearance of the unknown.
From outside the light of the fire a voice came forth.
Hail travelers. Would you allow me the warmth of your fire for the night becomes cold. A womens voice. Gandalf stood up.
Leona? said Gandalf. It is I,and she come into the light of the fire.
You know her? asked Cougar as he slid his axe back into his sheath.
I do indeed! said Gandalf. Welcome,warm yourself by the fire. It is good to see you, said Gandalf.
She dismounted and the three sat down around the fire.
What brings you here to us? asked Gandalf.
I have dreamed you search for something and I was compeled to come and help you. What do you search for? asked Leona.
Somewhat surprized Gandalf spoke. A crossing of the Epis.
A safe crossing for a large army. Is it possible?
It is! and the crossing is not far from here, but you have to be able to recognize it, she said.
I will show it to you when the sun is at its zenith or you will not find it, she said.
Relieved at this information, Gandalf reached forth and took hold of Leona's hand.
I have lived many a mans life and when all seems dismal and dark, I have been shown a guiding light. And you Leona are one of them. The Old Wizard, had a shining smile upon his face and Leona blushed.
The next day they moved along the Epis and came to a break in the banks. A road, long forgotten and over grown, eased its way down to the river. Two large boulders with a space between them large enough for a wagon to pass between rested in the water. On the opposite shore, two other boulders could be seen at equal distance.
It was early morning and they waited for the sun to rise high.
As the sun rose in the mid day sky the crossing appeared from beneath the silt laiden waters. The crossing was of light colored stone and the sunlight reflected through the shallow water.
But the path was not straight! It was slightly serpentine and the water was dark and its depth unknown.
A TRAP!, to those believing it was straight across as marked by the boulders on opposite shores.
Who made this crossing was lost in history, but it was made in the bend of the river to slow the current. And the depth of the water allowed a safe crossing of wagons, horses and man.
How far to the road? asked Gandalf.
It is not far, only the underbrush hides its entrance, answered Leona.
I ride back to Hammerton! You and Leona mark a trail to the crossing, said Gandalf to Cougar.
Before Gandalf rode off he come to the side of Leona. You have done well, he said.
Gandalf nudged the sides of Shadowfax and they rode off, retracing the path from which they came.
As Gandalf rode, he spoke these words outloud. "Remarkable woman".
The Dark Forces rode hard to reach Hammerton, but they had to rest. Their long journey forced them to take more time to recouperate for their horses were tired and the garrison lagged behind.
Therroth, clenched his fists at the thought of delay.

Slingshot-------------------------<>

Great Albino Bat

(12/30/2003; 00:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114300)

Some thoughts on survival....

These are thoughts passing through the mind of the GAB.

May be of interest, perhaps not. For what they are worth:

Survival will not be possible with preparations for exclusively personal survival, in the final breakdown of the dollar and the radically new conditions to be faced, especially by US residents. Forget about preparations such as Black Blade is recommending, in all good faith. They are good, but not enough!

Survival will only be possible as members of a strong group.

Therefore, it behooves those who understand what is happening, to present their views as clearly as possible, to their closest friends. Slowly and prudently, break the news to them, not by making them feel small and foolish, but by making them understand events and the facts regarding real money. As events unfold, those who do this will naturally tend to become the leaders of their groups.

Church groups come to mind. As economic devastation takes its toll, the warnings made previously will begin to make sense. You won't find survival possible, outside of a close group. Together, perhaps it will be possible.

Goldbugs must think of themselves as apostles of a better world, not as withdrawn individuals who wish to "clam up" within their shells. Start preaching the good word regarding gold, at once! To those who will listen, of course. We, the goldbugs, for the most part understand what has happened, and what must be done. This is an opportunity for leadership which cannot be turned down without the worst consequences. A leader is one who leads, because he can't do otherwise, and not because he particularly wants to lead.

Knowledge is power, and we goldbugs have the critically important knowledge. We must share this knowledge, not keep it to ourselves in the vain hope of surviving when all is going down.

The revered bankers will listen humbly, when the goldbugs speak out, for they will know we are right.

We must all form our groups, and do our best to help the members of the group survive along with us. By ourselves, we will not survive. Americans are great at teamwork, it is their specialty, and the world ahead will demand teamwork.

I might add that, knowingly or not, the enemies of gold are the enemies of humanity. And as Ben Franklin once said:

"Gentlemen, we must all hang together, or we shall surely hang one by one."

Such is the guano from the GAB.

Great Albino Bat

(12/30/2003; 01:11:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114303)

Hello Toomas!

You are at the wrong forum, Sir!

No advertising is allowed here, sorry to inform you.

The GAB

slingshot

(12/30/2003; 01:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114304)

Great Albino Bat

Msg. # 114300 I have copied your post and read it a few times to clarify my thoughts I wish to convey.
I find you a Good Soul and commend you for understanding of survival. Yet I wish to point out that the only one you can depend upon is yourself. In the event of any disaster the self preservation is the dominant force and unrational thinking prevails. Only after the initial shock that the need to bind together comes to MIND. This is important and the time laspse between the intial shock and the need to bind together can be a dangerous time.
Do not make the recommendations of Sir Blake Blade trivial.

Preparation and training has saved my life. Fire aboard ship is a paramount experience. You have nowhere to go but fight the fire.
Asked those aboard Forrestal and Enterprise. My experience was trivial to theirs, but no less frightening.

And the need to survive by yourself is important!, for it may be that the only one to save you is yourself.

You can bet the lessons of Gold is prudent here.

Slingshot----------------<>

slingshot

(12/30/2003; 01:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114305)

(No Subject)

My apology to Sir Black Blade for misspelling.
Slingshot-------<>

slingshot

(12/30/2003; 02:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114306)

Goldilox Msg # 114291

" Kill them all and let God sort them out"

I can't remember if this is a slogan of the 82nd airborne or the 101st.
Welcome Home if you were "In Country"
Slingshot------------<>

Remarx

(12/30/2003; 07:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114307)

@GAB:Survival

http://www.museletter.comHear, hear, GAB! Community will be an essential factor of survival in the postcarbon era, both morally and pragmatically.

Richard Heinberg, in his last few "Museletters", has been addressing the need for building community "lifeboats". He is fully aware of peak oil and resource depletion issues that BB raises. Some of his newsletters are online at the link above, but he asks for a small annual subscription to see the full set. It is well worth it IMHO. His perspective may be a bit different than the essentially libertarian view dominant here in this forum, but he is not dogmatic. He is very concerned about furthering healthy, morally grounded community.

His writing is relevant to gold ownership since it helps provide an understanding of the geopolitical world strategy that affects the POG.

Here is the leading paragraph from a February's newsletter:

"With the dawn of the 21st century the world has entered a new stage of geopolitical struggle. The first half of the 20th century can be understood as one long war between Britain (and shifting allies) and Germany (and shifting allies) for European supremacy. The second half of the century was dominated by a Cold War between the US, which emerged as the world's foremost industrial-military power following World War II, and the Soviet Union and its bloc of protectorates. The US wars in Afghanistan (in 2001-2002) and Iraq (which, counting economic sanctions and periodic bombings, has continued from 1990 to the present) have ushered in the latest stage, which promises to be the final geopolitical struggle of the industrial period - a struggle for the control of Eurasia and its energy resources."

Gold Hill

(12/30/2003; 09:00:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114308)

Joe Sixpack

In Monday's "USA Today" (money section),an article about eBay lists the top three search items. Number three is gold. "The kind you hide in a wall safe as a hedge against geopolitical or economic disaster."
Is Joe Sixpack waking up? The "barbelic relic" continues to shine.
Thank you CPM for the knowledge taken from this forum in 2003!! May your company thrive in 2004!!
Gold Hill

Twincaman

(12/30/2003; 09:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114309)

Precious metals funds

Can any of you gold experts explain why, despite gold's steady rise over the past several months, most precious metals funds took a significant dip recently?

DryWasher

(12/30/2003; 10:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114310)

Some thoughts on survival....

Reference GAB (114300), Slingshot (114304), Remarx (114307)
Very thought provoking posts gentelmen. Please let me add a few thoughts on the subject, if I may.

First let me define what I mean by survival. To me survival means much more than just continuing to be alive. It means continuing to be able to live in a reasonably pleasant and secure manner and being able to contribute something useful to others. It most definitely includes some degree of economic security which is what this forum is really all about.

So where does the responsibility for our continued survival rest? Is it with each of us as individuals to look out for our selves? Is it with our families to look out for the family as a whole as well as for each family member? Is it for the community to look out for the interests of it's members? Is it the responsibility of each level of government to work to insure the survival of those individuals which it governs? Does the global community of nations have a responsibility to ensure the survival of all of the worlds individuals? Does each individual have a responsibility to work to help ensure the survival of all other individuals? To me it is absolutely clear that the answer to each and every one of these questions is a very firm YES.

When any of the above responsibilities are not lived up to the survival of each and everyone of us is put at risk. But what can the individual do about any of this? First we should each follow Sir Black Blade's advice, then we should become involved in working to make the needed changes required to make sure that ALL of the above responsibilities are fulfilled. But how? As Sir GAB wrote:

"Goldbugs must think of themselves as apostles of a better world, not as withdrawn individuals who wish to "clam up" within their shells. Start preaching the good word regarding gold, at once! To those who will listen, of course. We, the goldbugs, for the most part understand what has happened, and what must be done. This is an opportunity for leadership which cannot be turned down without the worst consequences. A leader is one who leads, because he can't do otherwise, and not because he particularly wants to lead.

Knowledge is power, and we goldbugs have the critically important knowledge. We must share this knowledge, not keep it to ourselves in the vain hope of surviving when all is going down."

Well said Sir GAB. I could not agree more.

DryWasher.

(12/30/2003; 10:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114311)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Gold Gallops to 14-Year Highs

Today's headline with thanks to 'Gold Hill' (good find).

___________

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.

Clink!

(12/30/2003; 10:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114312)

Survival - OT

http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_850885.htmlTry surviving this !

C!

Great Albino Bat

(12/30/2003; 11:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114313)

Thanks to all who have commented on my post early this morning!

I must apologize to Black Blade; I must be more careful in choosing words. I wrote: "Forget about preparation such as Black Blade is recommending."

That was a mistake!

Definitely, do take all the recommended precautions!

What I was trying to say, is that - that's not going to be enough. Water runs out. Batteries become exhausted. Even ammo runs out. Food stores will be consumed long before things begin to get better, count on it.

We have to think much about the social environment that is coming our way.

The GAB

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 11:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114314)

PM Funds

http://www.jsmineset.com@twincaman

Most PM funds are heavily weighted in PM stocks, who have taken a "Barron's Breather" recently even as gold has been rising more slowly in the last month.

While gold has just risen comfortably over the last month, PM stocks have been more volatile, ramping and correcting in a more pronounced manner. Over the longer haul, they are still closely intertwined.

For some interesting insight into the correlation between them, check out Jim Sinclair regularly for his comments.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 11:11:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114315)

Twincaman

Hello Twincaman, you asked...

"Can any of you gold experts explain why, despite gold's steady rise over the past several months, most precious metals funds took a significant dip recently?"

I'll give it a go. During the stock mania of the mid to late 1990s many mutual funds reported (advertised) huge percentage gains over a short period ot time, usually just the last year or two. After stock prices fell in 2000, 2001 and 2002 these same companies were still reporting gains (smaller but gains) but now over a much longer period of time so as to include the huge gains of the 1990s. These gains were now needed to offset the yearly loses of the recent years.

Whatever sector you may be interested in, I'm sure you can find SPECIFIC time frames to show gains and other time periods that show loses. The precious metals funds are no different although you'll have to work much harder to find a particular time frame to show a lose because precious metals stocks, along with the real metals, have been on fire to the upside for a few years now. Nothing moves without retractions and backfilling but both the XAU and the HUI have enjoyed tremendous percentage gains over the last few years. Both great bull and great bear markets also tend to be quite volatile at times so that retractions against the main trend can look violent during short time periods. It's the time frame adjustment that fund managers use to make themselves look prosperous. Liars figure and figures lie. Expand the time factors on your charts to get different results. Expanding the scale on the axis can also be done to show different shapes, fiqures like pennants or flags, intersecting lines and such to justify lots of different predictions. It's all part of the puzzle.
Just one man's opinion.
Silver at $6.00? Who da thunk it? (;>
Rich

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/30/2003; 11:18:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114316)

Looking to take action? The gold price continues to march higher, waiting for no man. (Nor even for Eowyn)

http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html:-)

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 11:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114317)

Dx chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Dx 86.x here we come. Probably after gold closes in NY.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 11:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114318)

Tax liability reminder !!

Just a quick reminder for paper traders that must pay capital gains taxes on positions that will be marked-to-market, for a yearly number, as of market close tomorrow, that 12/31/03 is tomorrow! The standard advice is to take enough profit out of paper positions to cover the tax. The tax is figured on those year end marked-to-market numbers even if the market moves against you after tomorrow. There aren't too many things more frustrating than paying taxes on profits that disappeared in Jan. or Feb.

Now, I can hear Aristotle thinking, BUY THE REAL THING, and you'll never have to worry about paying taxes on any silly marked-to-market paper gains. Hey, who am I to disagree? I pay no tax to Ceasar on the increased fiat paper value of my physical coins.

Paper trading for fiat gains (hopefully)
The real deal for real reasons.
Two different animals?
Rich

Melting Pot

(12/30/2003; 11:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114319)

@Twincaman

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indus...bay-cover_x.htmThe PM stock sector has risen hundreds of percent since the bull began and became oversold. A general correction in this sector was due to validate the current valuations.

Many of these stocks have moved from $1 to $2 a few years ago rising to their current $10 & $12+ per share valuations. Newbies entering this sector are shocked by the quick accelerating valuations, hence they are afraid and scared to invest into this sector at this time as this sector appears very very expensive when compared to 3 years ago.

This is normal bull market action, and should be expected. The PM sector will take a short rest and consolidate in this area before moving much much higher, again to validate and correct the recent price movements.

This consolidation period will soon end and with it the lower priced buying opportunity! Ebay has had a 70% increase in gold searches, it wont be long before J6P begins discovering the leverage that PM stocks offer resulting in an overwhelming display of "irrational exhuberance" in this very small cap sector.....

Good luck and good investing to ya!

NIA/DYODD

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 11:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114320)

Dx drops to 86.99 immediately after gold close.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0OK, it wasn't the most difficult call I ever attempted, but I hit it right on.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/30/2003; 11:46:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114321)

Page Update!

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 11:52:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114322)

simile

@BB:

"Gold pushed higher on a much weaker U.S. dollar � again � as investors are running like the blazes."

My favorite variation on the fire theme is:

"Run like their hair's on fire!"

(:> G'lox

Black Blade

(12/30/2003; 11:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114323)

GAB and Drywasher

Actually being prepared gives you a good jump ahead an beats no preparation at all. I'm not calling for Armgeddon here, just some prudent precautions.

It's like the old story of the two hunters being chased by a grizzly bear. One stops to change from his boots to his sneekers. The other says to him: "What are you doing? You are not going to outrun that bear?" Where upon the other hunter says: "No, I just have to out run you". ;-)

- Black Blade

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 11:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114324)

holiday trading

@BB, DMR:

"Gold pushed higher on a much weaker U.S. dollar � again � as investors are running like the blazes."

Of course, the spin from CNBC is that "small" traders are having a field day until the Central Banks and gold mines return to the pits in January. I guess they're daring us to hold our positions after the New Year holiday.

G'lox

Gandalf the White

(12/30/2003; 12:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114325)

WOWSERS !! Another 8 am ----DIVE, DIVE, DIVE ---- command !

Great Albino Bat

(12/30/2003; 12:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114326)

Let's look forward a bit...

Let us suppose the dollar continues its plunge further and the Euro rises in response, to say US$1.40/Euro.

Is the ECB going to be able to stand the heat and maintain unchanged policies?

Not bloody likely, in my opinion. European policies will be modified someway.

France and Germany scuttled the "Stability Pact" which they promised to uphold, which stated that they would not under any circumstances run fiscal deficits of more than 3% of GNP. The political going got rough, so - they folded.

No spinal cord in the ECB. At $1.40 to the Euro - maybe sooner - panic may take over. This is (more or less) Jim Turk's opinion. He writes a good newsletter and some extracts are available at goldmoney.com I think this view is possibly correct: "Increase Euro money supply to debase the Euro"

On the other hand, what if Europe sees this as suicidal - which it is.

What about various types of CONTROLS? Exchange controls, capital controls, taxes on incoming dollars? A revival of the concept of "autarky" (Self-sufficiency and isolation)?

The problems faced by Europe as a consequence of a continuing fall of the dollar, will soon take the limelight, in my opinion. What views do Belgian, Ari, CB2, Caradoc, Gresham, MK, BB and others hold on likely responses from Europe to the fall of the dollar against the Euro?

Thanks and I hope to read opinions on this very important upcoming event. Something is going to give - what's it going to be?

The GAB

Melting Pot

(12/30/2003; 12:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114327)

Fed's Folly Will Come Due in 2004

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/10134346.htmlLed by the Federal Reserve, the world's central banks have spent five years pursuing some of the most reckless monetary policies ever seen in the developed world. Next year, though, their barmy bets will finally start to come undone.

The crackup won't start happening until the end of 2004 -- after George Bush, the market's favorite for president, has been safely re-elected -- but the coming deluge will usher in a period of global economic malaise and dire losses in financial markets.

The fast-declining dollar we see today is an early indicator of the reckoning that Fed Chairman Greenspan has long tried to forestall, using unsustainable measures. America will be the epicenter of the bust, because it is here that debt totals, as well as trade and fiscal deficits, have risen to historically delinquent levels.

More @ above link:

Operative

(12/30/2003; 12:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114328)

Bush set to visit Libya

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_1.htmlBush set to visit Libya
in first half of 2004

Tuesday, December 30, 2003
LONDON � Libya is preparing for defense cooperation talks with the United States, leading to a visit by President Bush early next year.
Libyan officials said the United States has agreed to review Tripoli's defense requirements in wake of an agreement by Col. Moammar Khaddafy to eliminate his nation's medium-range missile and weapons of mass destruction arsenal. The officials said the two countries plan to begin formal talks on Libya's defense and security requirements over the next few months.
The officials said Britain and the United States will lift sanctions from Libya by April 2004. They said this would pave the way for a visit by U.S. President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair to Tripoli during the first half of next year."

Comment: Perhaps this article sheds some light on the strange geo-political events surrounding Libya in recent days. Perhaps, another oil rich country will soon supply oil to the US. We are moving from "interesting times" into the bizarre. Perhaps, oil priced in Euros is not quite a done deal. ??

a nation of one

(12/30/2003; 12:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114329)

to Liberty Head

My mistake. I didn't know that 401K could be made compulsory. That just makes it worse, in my opinion. When people have to do -with their own money- what other people tell them to, I think that's tyranny.

To all. I have only been following pog for about an hour a day for the past two weeks, since I am in a small town and have only the library here to rely on for Internet access. But from what little I have been able to see, it seems to me an important change has taken place in the action of the dollar in the past few days. I guess the DOW is going up for the reason a wise poster a day or two ago suggested ("artificially low interest rate, and liquidity being pumped into the system at a very high rate" or words to that effect).

From what I've seen, I can't say that the dollar will collapse. But I can say that if it ever does collapse, it will probably look very much like this just before it does.

I think I am going to have to buy a laptop.

Thanks to the increase in gold over the past year and a half, doing so will be a very small matter.

Operative

(12/30/2003; 12:51:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114330)

Judge Orders Parmalat Chief Executive to Remain in Prison

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJ2E6BUOD.htmlJudge Orders Parmalat Chief Executive to Remain in Prison

MILAN, Italy (AP) - A judge on Tuesday ordered former Parmalat chief executive Calisto Tanzi to remain in prison amid prosecutors' accusations he contributed to the dairy company's bankruptcy and misappropriated millions of dollars from its balance sheet.

Judge Guido Salvini rejected the defense request that Tanzi be granted house arrest pending formal indictment for what the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission called in a lawsuit against the company "one of the largest and most brazen corporate financial frauds in history.

Comment: Would it not be a fresh breath for our judicial system if we had a judge like Gudio Salvini? Imagine turning him loose on the likes of Enron, Worldcom, et al. Imagine honest money, or better yet, dont imagine, get you some today. (Hint; it is gold or silver in color, and not very easy to fold)

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 13:04:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114331)

FED's Folly article

@ Melting Pot

What's more interesting than the rehash in this article is the source.

Thestreet.com is chaired by Jim Kramer, of Heckle and Jeckle fame. While the boss is touting recovery on national cableTV, his minions are more quietly warning of debt risks.

His behavior during the NasDOG boom was similar. He kept cheer leading tech stocks until he could get his hedge fund and advisory website positioned perfectly for the long ride down with bucket loads of puts in hand.

Operative

(12/30/2003; 13:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114332)

Point of No Return?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12The above link shows the us dollar over a one year period.
Take a look. Take a long look. It reminds me of a moment frozen in time in the life of every bungee jumper. The moment when the cord has reached it's farthest, the jumper experiences a millisecond of zero momentum. And he wonders, does the cord retract propelling him upward, or does it break. Course there is always the unexpected, the cord slips from it's securing, sending cord and jumper to his doom. Which at that point, the jumper will wish for that golden parachute. Hindsight can be too little, too late, and very messy.

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 13:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114333)

Bush set to visit Libya

@ Operative:

I wonder if Dubya will have Ollie north cover the visit in his new role as "journalist". He certainly would have the most "inside" information. Such irony . . .

With apologies to Mark Russell and Tom Lehrer, my favorite satirists:

"How do you solve a problem like Muomhar?
How do you keep chameleons in the sand?"

Melting Pot

(12/30/2003; 13:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114334)

Compare Enron Charts to US Dollar Charts:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=w"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." [Human Action, p. 572.]

"By 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed." --Alan Greenspan Gold & Economic Freedom 1966

At the beginning the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services, as has been shown, at different dates and to a different extent. This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the [p. 428] country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy. But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap pater. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last."�Ludwig Von Mises

"In real terms, an inflationary depression is indistinguishable from a deflationary depression. In both cases production and incomes decline in real terms; in both cases liquidity problems proliferate; in both cases widespread bankruptcies occur. The distinction between a deflationary and inflationary depression is this: in a deflationary depression-- production, incomes and living standards generally all decline both in real terms and in nominal money terms; in an inflationary depression-- production, incomes and living standards generally also decline in real terms while at the same time all of these [categories] show increases in nominal money terms.

Inflation depreciates the purchasing value of the official currency and simultaneously appreciates the value of the officially abandoned real money (gold and silver). Over time the rate of fiat money issue tends to increase, causing a coincident but greater rate of depreciation in the market value of each unit and of nominally increasing total stock of paper currency. This, in turn, forces the officials to increase the rate of counterfeiting again and again in order to try to cover the soaring cost of under funded but already budgeted programs. The process then feeds on itself and ultimately destroys the currency completely, the currency ceases to be money by anybody's definition, and this pushes the paper money price of gold and silver into the stratosphere."�Page 58, "The Coming Currency Collapse, And What You Can Do About It." by Jerome F. Smith, c.1980. Bantam printing Oct.1981.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 13:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114335)

ANOO

You ended your message with these words...

"Thanks to the increase in gold over the past year and a half, doing so will be a very small matter."

This was in reference to buying a computer. While reading your words before you said as much, I was thinking of the struggle you went through with your "buy and hold" strategy on gold contracts during the last big downturn when POG retracted bigtime and I was guessing at what those contracts are now worth. Well pal, you were right, and those paper contracts have to be rolled at expiration (spread trade) but in so doing, there will be profit credited to ANOO's account. I hope there's plenty there for a laptop and maybe some coins as well. Maybe some gold earrings for the misses. As for coins, I like the silver ones. (You get more weight for the money.) M.K. does not sell computers. Please also refer to my earlier (114318) post concerning taxes.
Congratulations!
Rich

Federal_Reserves

(12/30/2003; 14:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114336)

Missed estimates and bogus markets.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.aspMissed estimates.

So today we see these fundamentals get missed (see below), yet the stock market goes up? Certainly a little 1-2%shaving from the 52 week highs would be expected in a logical, free trading, market of stocks.

10:01 ET Existing Homes Sales 6.06 mln vs 6.33 mln consensus :

10:00 ET Chicago PMI 59.2 vs 62.0 consensus :

10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 91.3 vs 91.8 consensus

What happened. SnP Stocks finished green!

What the heck?

OH! The FED was pumping again?
YUP YUP YUP another 1 billion in cash.
OH! That explains it!
LOOK at the mass manipulation FED repo's and market action.

Nice spike in the last 1/2 of trading bought the SnP into the green.

The balls on the roulette wheel are fixed to fall in the green right now. "Throw another billion on the fire."

Its a complete waste of time to study the funnymentals and trade off of that. Even technical analysis doesn't work.

Its up as long as Greenspan and the NYC banks say it is or something happens that pulls their pants down in public view.

Why ask why?

a nation of one

(12/30/2003; 14:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114337)

to R Powell

Today my account is worth twice what I originally put into it. I am sure my broker is waiting to call me at the slightest downturn, to scream that I should sell, as he has done numerous times in the past. And there is a considerable uncertainty at this time, whether to hold. But with the dollar dropping and the other news I hear, and the preponderence of the articles that I read, I think the probable outcomes of holding still outweigh those of liquidating. My goal is not to benefit from the highs and lows of the secondary or intermediate movements, but to benefit from the primary trend, which I believe will be ongoing for at least several more years. My contracts are for December 2004 gold, and I intend to close these out before summer, if the price justifies it, and roll them forward. I am presently covered to 87 points on the downside, should anything happen. I would buy more contracts, but, right now, that would cut my coverage on the downside, and in this object I intend to make the most of the potential for safety that I perceive extant in options, even though others have said there is no such thing. I am not after every penny, though I watch the market as though I were.

I also hold physical gold, in the form of bullion coins. These too are doing well, certainly. And I am likely to get more, as chances arise. Were it not for my contract positions, I probably wouldn't even follow the gold market daily, since I never worry about the physical, just the contracts, and, oh, the shares in Goldcorp and Newmont, that I also bought. They've done well also. But the bullion coins (for anybody who may be considering buying some) are simply great to hold and forget, under these circumstances. I never worry about them. Our host is a good source for these. I speak from personal experience.

Liberty Head

(12/30/2003; 14:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114338)

a nation of one

Thank you kindly for your response. I generally agree with most everything you post.
You have an admirable philosophy. Perhaps we can benefit from more of your posts once you get your laptop?

Best Wishes

Operative

(12/30/2003; 14:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114339)

What He Really Meant To Say

In the movie Thunder Dome, a city called Bartertown may be telling of our foreign policy. Bartertown, run by Tina Turner is at the mercy of a little man who controls the energy for the city. Tina Turner plays the part of the city's leader and is adept at ticking this guy off and he is quick to pull the switch on the power supply showing all who really is in control. Mel Gibson's character is brought into the plot by Turner to remove the energy czar. I use this illustration becuase in the simplist of terms I cannot help but wonder if that is the driving force behind our current administrations foreign policy. Thier appearing lack of concern over having sold the Fort Knox stash may be as simple as if they can control the world's oil/energy structure, then the gold can be replaced at some future later date. I wonder if the spokesman who last week proclaimed, "We got him!", really meant to say "We got it!", meaning the oil. The US as a giant/leader in the industrial age is over. There simply are too many billions of peoples willing/happy to work for a few dollars a day. While our military is still the best, the question begs for answers is how long? How long before China will put forward the largest and most advanced military machine? The Wal-Marts of the world already have the "made in China" labels attached to near darn everything. Is the future to reveal that the US will hold the energy card, Asia to hold the manufacturing card, and the newly formed/forming EU will be left holding the joker in the deck? It would be nice to see the official transcripts of Nixon's visit to China, too bad they will not be made public for a few more decades. Just pondering some thoughts as this year soon comes to an end. And thankfull for that little stash of gold, and the cans of beans. Will help calm the spirits yet to come in 2004.

TownCrier

(12/30/2003; 15:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114340)

Haiku fun with 'RotK'

[Warning: there be spoilers]

And so it begins.
Everyone must play their part.
An epic struggle.

~~~

Gandalf takes command.
Gondor's beacons call for aid,
still more is needed.

~~~

The Paths of the Dead.
Strider, Legolas. . . . Gimli.
"The way is shut." NOT!

~~~

Theoden's riders.
Orcs on the Pelennor Fields.
One charge rules them all.

~~~

Some help for Frodo.
Men wage war to buy him time.
At what price, Precious?

~~~

Climbing up Mt. Doom.
A quest to destroy One ring.
"Nooooooooo... 'twas REAL gold!!!"

R.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 15:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114341)

Melting Pot

Thanks for the quotes and the thoughts.

I was reminded of a book called "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson which explained and described the currency failure in the Weimar Republic in Germany right after WW1 (early 1920s).

I remember reading that the currency devaluation allowed some farmers to pay in full their mortgages with only a portion of the profits from one harvest. At the same time city folk, especially retired workers and disabled soldiers, living on fixed incomes were sometimes literally starving. There were incidents of "raids" on the farms by hungry city dwellers looking for food. Grand pianos were traded for a pig or a few bushels of vegtables. At the same time the government went broke because by the time taxes were collected, the currency amount collected was almost worthless. Workers demanded daily pay and spent it on the way home. By the time new currency with much larger numbers on it was printed, yes, you guessed it, it was already almost worthless. The rate of depreciation increased at a tremendous rate. Controled dollar decline?? And gold? Yes, it saved many souls.

The book gets a little bogged down in the monetary semantics and political struggles at times but is well worth the read. It's hard to find as, with much that's worth reading, it's out of print.
Rich

TownCrier

(12/30/2003; 15:38:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114342)

Understanding the German hyperinflation

http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.htmlWhen you can't get your hands on a book, this commentary in our Gilded Opinion section might be the next best thing: "The Nightmare German Inflation".

see url

R.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 15:47:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114343)

ANOO

Your words....

"I intend to make the most of the potential for safety that I perceive extant in options, even though others have said there is no such thing. I am not after every penny, though I watch the market as though I were."

Some thoughts if I may: You're talking here of hedging or spending a small portion of the gain to insure the greatest percentage of the gain. There are numerous strategies. I won't get specific at all but will say that such insurance is not much different in intent than homeowners' or life insurance. I often find it helpful to think in terms of positioning so as not losing gains rather than in terms of more gain.

With 87 points (wow!) per contract you have at least doubled the account, no? Be careful. If gold's rate of appreciation increases, I would imagine margin increases will be announced. We play a game in which we can not make the rules and others can change them at their discretion. There may be a tendency now for you to become a trader rather than an investor. These markets are designed more for "knowledgeable gambling" than for buy and hold investing. These are merciless markets and very dangerous. Your broker wants more "action" (read commissions) and will encourage this. Again, congrats, well done!
For the conspiracy believers among us, ANOO is thrashing the shorts!

Questions:
If the rate of depreciation of the dollar increases, are the views of such people as Hathaway, Russell, uncle "Harry" and Hamilton that the POG may reach four figures that incredible?

If the ride from POG=$400 to $500 takes much less time than did POG $300 to $400, then will there even be time enough to find a seat for the ride from $500 to $600?
Rich

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 15:57:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114344)

Townie

Thanks, for the reminder of the amount of great knowledge available here. Other than knowing to cite the source, I'm fairly ignorant of copyright laws but, if not a problem or if satisfied with the proper references and credits, how many books could be materialized from the archives?
Just food for thought in case you get bored. ;>)
Rich

(12/30/2003; 16:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114346)

Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Report

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlJust finished reading the AGR -- another outstanding synopsis of market conditions. It 's not hard to see why this report is picked up at so many other sites around the internet. I think one would be hard-pressed to find a better summation of the market on a daily basis than what is found at the link above.

Clink!

(12/30/2003; 16:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114347)

@ R Powell

Rich, you said :-
'If the rate of depreciation of the dollar increases, are the views of such people as Hathaway, Russell, uncle "Harry" and Hamilton that the POG may reach four figures that incredible?

If the ride from POG=$400 to $500 takes much less time than did POG $300 to $400, then will there even be time enough to find a seat for the ride from $500 to $600?'

I know a graphing technique which could help you answer that .......
LOL
C!

Dollar Bill

(12/30/2003; 17:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114348)

*>*

Towncrier, this is from your link;
"But the government, lacking adequate income, felt forced to resort more and more to creating money. By October 1923, 1% of government income came from taxes and 99% from the creation of new money

Despite the proliferating billions of trillions of marks, the average citizen found it harder and harder to get enough money for necessities. Banks, short of money, could not honor checks. Businessmen were strapped for money to buy materials and meet payrolls. The government faced the same problem. It appeared that there was not too much money around, but rather much too little. The clamor for more money grew on all sides. It seemed that any halt to the printing presses would bring business to a standstill and throw millions of workers out on the street. The government itself would be unable to carry on. Riding a tiger, it dared not dismount. On October 25, 1923, the Reichsbank noted that it had that day printed 120,000 trillion marks. Unfortunately, the day's demand had been for one million trillion. However, it announced that it was expanding production and the daily issue would soon be 500,000 trillion!"
Well no wonder Bereneke feels he has room to inflate the currency.

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 18:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114349)

Weimar hyperinflala

The most interesting correlation of the current US rock/hard place to Weimar Germany is the motivation to inflate their way out of debt. The debtberg imposed by the Allies post Great War retributions left the German gubmint with no other choice. Print the money and pay off the foreign devils.

Let's see, just who is buying all that US Tresury debt?

Once trouble brews, some super hero nationalist icon will lead us to glory. . .

got gold?

21mabry

(12/30/2003; 18:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114350)

fiat

I was thinking about what makes a counties fiat acceptable to its citizens and the world.I came to the conclusion a countries ability to project military powereither regionaly or globaly is a major factor in its fiats acceptability.A countries percieved economic strength is a given in its percieved global worth,and I am sure there are other factors.The major fiat currencies starting with the U.S.D is accepted because of both economic and military strength of America,the Euro is accepted because of economic strength first and Nato minus the U.S. can not really project its military power outside of europe.The Yen is accepted based entirely on economic strength same with the Pound.The chinese Yuan will be accepted when convertible on Chinas economic strength alone,regionaly it will be accepted because of its military and if China can build a blue water navy it could rival all other major fiat.Then we have gold it has no military force it has no national economy but is the most powerful currency on its own inherent properties and then there is silver which posseses most of golds qualities but to a lesser degree.So the metals stand alone in needing nothing but their own physical properties to be of value.21

Gold Standard

(12/30/2003; 18:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114351)

Silver blasts through $6.00

Currently $6.01, and climbing.

The rate of change in silver is now apparent as an increase across most currencies.

Could this be the start of something big?

Cheers! GS

EagleOne

(12/30/2003; 18:40:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114352)

The steath metal

Silver just busted through the top of Kitco's chart and is trading at $6.01. Not much word from the table about silver outperforming gold lately. Hows come?

Dollar Bill

(12/30/2003; 19:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114353)

*>*

Sir Belgian, this latest news of Bush and Blair to visit Lybia, do you have any news from your world that sheds some light on this? How does the arab street see this make sense?
What is Kadafi saying? What happened to him? Did he convert to christianity? There is a story here, maybe you know some of it? I appreciated your idea that Kadafi might play for gain, but to play to the extent of having Bush and Blair visit ! How does he explain that to the Arabs?

You know this, but I just read this take by someone on the web..."The US has consumed the excess production from all parts of the world for the past decade in exchange for what? IOUs written in its own currency, which is has promptly consigned to the trash heap. This means the US was able to consume for much less than they would otherwise and will not shoulder the burden of repayment in real terms!"

Druid

(12/30/2003; 19:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114354)

Libya's Lockerbie Deal Sets Potential Bonanza in Motion for Global Oil Companies

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/122303.htmlSnip.

Ghadafi's Gamble

Among the most interesting stories of the week is the $2.7 billion settlement between Lybia, the U.K. and the U.S. in which Libya took responsibility for the Lockerbie, Scotland bombing, and renounced terrorism. And although it is a welcome development by most accounts, as with all political solutions, what is not said is often more important than what is widely reported. Perhaps most important is to ask why Lybia even decided to move in this direction.

Stratfor.com, as usual, seems to have put its finger on the pulse of the situation, as to why Ghadafi made the deal. The intelligence web site wrote on 8-19: "This public relations gambit is driven primarily by geopolitical concerns: Gadhafi, a great survivalist, is hemmed in by two potential threats -- a more aggressive post-Sept. 11 United States on one side and the threat of militant Islam on the other. This has led Gadhafi to a strategy that seeks to resurrect Libya's international image while simultaneously trying to radically reform the state-run economy through privatization and access to foreign investment -- starting with the petroleum sector. These reforms have become a priority for regime survival in a complicated world." More plainly stated: "Libya has no interest in being Syria or Iran, let alone Iraq. A kinder, gentler face from Tripoli will help to keep the country off the U.S. blacklist, as will economic reforms that increase Western powers' access to and interest in the oil-rich country."

And finally: "A stronger economy may help Gadhafi to fend off a potential domestic threat that feeds on poverty, large numbers of disenfranchised youth and unemployment. After decades of economic mediocrity under a state-run system, Gadhafi likely calculates that the quickest road to strengthening the economy -- and keeping constituents happy -- will come through attracting foreign capital. Coincidentally, this also would enrich Gadhafi and his allies -- another fine motivator."

Druid: Dollar Bill, I know you inquired of Belgian for a response about Libya's oil so I thought I would throw this perspective into the mix.

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 19:43:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114355)

And grining a grin......

EagleOne, you asked ...

"Silver just busted through the top of Kitco's chart and is trading at $6.01. Not much word from the table about silver outperforming gold lately. Hows come?"

I can only answer for myself. The problem seems to be that I just can't stop grinning long enough to think of anything witty to say.
Hey, Ski, are you watching !!
Rich

Waverider

(12/30/2003; 20:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114356)

Rich...

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1...this one's for you!! :)

R Powell

(12/30/2003; 20:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114357)

Waverider // silver

Thanks. There are many of us silverbugs who have waited for a long, long time.
I haven't seen any fundamental news so I'll have to guess that this is a dollar and gold related move. Silver moves in mysterious ways and often at times that aren't understandable even in hindsight. It would disappoint me but not surprise me to see her run up in larger daily moves for a while longer and then, for no apparent reason drop sharply and quickly. Right now she seems strong and maybe about to make a spike upward. Actually, this would not be healthy but sure would be fun to see.
The supply/demand picture has not changed that I'm aware of, deficit still with no one able to guess when that situation will reach the point (market awareness) where price rationing is needed. Interest rates don't indicate any immediate physical shortage.
I don't know. I thought $400 gold would awaken her to approach $6.00. Maybe she just wanted to take her own sweet time. I'm watching for investor interest. This is a very small (total market cap) market and has the potential to really explode. I wonder what Warren Buffett thinks and knows? Hey, Warren, what's up?
Thanks for the chart!
Rich

Melting Pot

(12/30/2003; 20:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114358)

Gleaning The Cube

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1203As you can see above, when put against the broad measure of stocks in the US, holding dollars in this manner has been a good method of preserving one's wealth, and goes a long way in explaining the strength in domestic markets this past year. Here's where it gets interesting however, as it is difficult to categorize what has happened in this regard as a 'panic' to date, because over the past several months stock prices have been rising on decreasing relative volume. (See Figure 2)

How can this be? Simple, nobody is selling because when you do, one receives dollars in exchange, and nobody wants more pieces of worthless paper to confiscate their wealth through the depreciation process this currency unit must continue to endure because of the imbalances authorities have now manufactured.

And, based on the fact monetary aggregates were contracting in the fall, but have recently turned higher once again, the real 'panic' out of the USD has probably not even occurred yet, where one can now expect increasing quantities of debt induced fiat attempting to find a reasonable home away from dollars to push not only stocks higher, but of course 'tangibles' also, which has in fact been the primary trend for several years now, spawning new bull markets within this spectrum as well.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/page6.pdf

With what appears to be the bottoming of a short-term credit cycle in December, as evidenced in a renewed expansion of monetary aggregates in the US, price mangers may have finally fully released 'Pandora's Box' in the formula, where most participants will not mind the ride up at first, but may not be so enthusiastic about what happens in 'Weimar Republic' type circumstances latter on. For now though, we are likely to see more and more investors begin to participate in the euphoria most will not even consciously embrace, driving both paper based and tangible equity groups across the board higher in a frenzied fashion, and expanding the mania into commodities, not the least of which affected will be precious metals (PM's). Just take a look at gold against the USD, which is mounting a breakout from its current growth channel into sinusoidal amplitude gyrations. (See Figure 3)

Solomon Weaver

(12/30/2003; 20:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114359)

Twincaman - why gold up and gold funds down

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C8211-943853%2C00.htmlTwincaman

I post a link to an article which appeared linked by our hosts in today's updates.

I would like to use it to help explain why the price of gold funds may be down a bit, even as gold moves up.

First, I might say that the author of the article has done a reasonable job of catching many of the "themes" in gold this year...although, there are certain false understandings in my opion as well...

Read through that article and tell me if you really understand GOLD INVESTING any better than before you read it.

What stands out in this article is that it is more bullish (or interested) in ways to invest fiat in gold related paper situations. The few references it makes to actual gold ownership tend to make it sound like owing gold is the least interesting opportunity.

In truth, the actual physical metal is usually the least volatile of all these opportunities. For example, if you buy real gold today at about $420/ounce, it would take a lot of time and unexpected events to drive the price back down to $210, such that you would have "lost" half of your investment (when viewed using fiat dollars as the benchmark). The same events would obviously drive the value of various precious metals funds down much lower than 50%, and could return the capital value of certain junior minors back to almost zero.

Continuing the example, were your purchase of today at $420/ounce to rise by the end of 2004 to $480/ounce, you would have about a 15% annual return (again, when viewed using fiat dollars as the benchmark). At the same time, well managed gold funds should in the same period go up even more.

So, there is less "risk" in real gold...so this authors reference to "diverse" gold holdings is (IMO) wrong.

You might also note that much of the apparent rise in the value of gold is when it is marked in dollars...if you were to mark all your wealth back to Euros, those same gold holdings have not done as well. Another way to look at it, gold is now becoming more expensive for Americans to buy, but not much more expensive for Europeans to buy. Many gold mining companies have costs of operations in other countries, and because of this, even as the dollar value of gold rises, their profits in dollars does not rise as fast, and they therefore can even underperform gold.

For the last several months, we have been in an environment where most pundits think that the global economies are improving (so profits made this year in holding gold equities are being cashed out to buy back into mainstream stocks) and so gold funds are losing favor, even as most see that the dollar currency is trending down, and they either buy gold outright, or hedge into it, thereby moving the spot price up.

I make a small personal suggestion to new readers here:

Make sure that a starting core position in your portfolio is real gold (and real silver).....and if you have more to play with, then try some of the gold funds, etc. If you are lucky and make nice profits on the paper side, buy more real metal with your winnings.

Poor old Solomon

21mabry

(12/30/2003; 21:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114360)

(No Subject)

I have just started listening to the Roger Arnold show on the web at the tiger financial news website.Its a daily show and its archived,if you like Jim Puplava,Mark Faber,and Jim Rogers thoughts and interviews you will like this show.He discusses mostly macro econ,world economies,talks about gold,this guy seems to have an excellent handle on the world economy and its workings.21

Solomon Weaver

(12/30/2003; 21:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114361)

any change in silver fundamentals

R Powell / Waverider / Mr. Gresham / other silver watchersMy personal interests in silver have always come from a direct comparison to gold, as they are both available in very similar types of bullion forms, only that for the time being, a given dollar amount of silver is much heavier to move around. At the current time, both also seem to offer the property of being a "repository of value", thus, for ones like us, fulfilling the quality of money that it may be used as a form of savings.

The fundamentals in silver, with an multi-decade supply deficit, a global mining industry that has spent very little direct investment in silver rich assets, and a rapidly modernizing China, appear to dictate that the price of silver must rise to a new level which makes it profitable to mine, and that new price must hold for long enough (years) to convince mining companies that it is a real price rise. Thus, conservatively, it seems apparent that silver really needs to be at a minimum in a range of $6-10 per ounce. I think this is a fundamental aspect of the market, and I think that even the silver manipulators (if there are such) see that now, so, IMO, with the dollar falling, most players in silver are buying into that readjustment. (I.e., only fools would heavily short silver now, thinking it will return to recent lows).

Another item to take into consideration. There was a petition created on the web a few months ago, and after it had on the order of 1500 names, it was sent to Elliot Spitzer. I believe that this event was about as significant as the lawsuits initiated by certain large gold coin traders, and by friends of GATA (R. Howe). In particular, it may not have made heads role yet, but it has probably stimulated some house cleaning. In particular, the big short sellers will be forced to keep their COT figures a bit more tame.

Whether or not it is related to silver, I do believe that the end of 2003 is the date when the existing head of the CFTC will formally resign. It is uncertain to me whether the replacement will be a political figure (who can help smooth over and cover-up), or a financier (who would try to improve the integrity)....given that Warren Buffet is purported to still own 130 million ounces of silver, I would hunch that he has been consulted on this.

Furthermore, Warren Buffet has been very quiet over these years about the status of his actual holdings, and it was widely purported that about 1/2 of his 130 million ounces remained leased (probably since calling those silver loans would have lit a bomb in certain banking houses who he is friendly with). Now that Mr. Buffet is admitting to parking $billions of Berkshire Hathaway assets in "foreign currencies", it would seem logical that he is also working behind the scenes to strengthen his position in silver, for example, either beginning to close out leases, or at least lobbying to make sure that CFTC actions don't work against the longs. Although it is uncertain how much silver Mr. Buffet still controls, it seems safe to say that he is still very much on the long side. In my opinion, he cornered the physical market 5 years ago, and has been very patient in letting the world discover that.

Last point, given that much of the "silver rise" is actually a "dollar fall", and given the many and much larger opportunities to hedge and speculate in dollar ups and downs, I would say that it is safe to say that many of the big players who are exposed to a silver rise have been able to hedge by selling dollars, which would mean they would not be getting quite the squeeze one would think. The real problems for them will be when the dollar starts to come back and silver stays strong.....

So, R. Powell, I think in years to come, silver historians will look at year end 2003 and will write about certain fundamentals along these lines.

Poor old Solomon

Operative

(12/30/2003; 22:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114362)

@ Druid Re: Lybia

I wonder if the Lybian leader is a better reader of the "writings on the wall" than Saddam was?

Is this recent turn of events showing a two prong effort on the USA's part? The arab world is divided in many avenues. It would be an error to think otherwise. History has shown this to be true. Arab nation vs arab nation. Most arab nations have major conflicts amongst even their own populataions. Has the US declared "war" on the most radical arab countries, and at the same time offered an olive leaf to the one's willing to negoiate thier future?

Goldilox

(12/30/2003; 22:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114363)

Writings on the wall

@ operative

It's sooooo much easier to read the writing on the wall when your neighbor's wall has just been blown to smithereens. Given how much in kahoots with the west Saddam's history was, Ghadafi must know his leash is even shorter.

His "reaching out to the UN" has the US scrambling for quick resolutions so that European companies don't get there first for all the cushy deals.

physicalman

(12/30/2003; 22:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114364)

silver r powell

Glad to see the price of silver cross a 2nd level of adjustment in price. I believe the real pain in the silver shorts will occur when it crosses 7.50 as that will be a multi-year high and will take out the high of 7.11 when Warren finished his accumulation of his 129 mil. ozs. of AG.
From what i understand from some close friends is that Warren has direct control of 86 million ozs of silver and 43 million were left in the system for leasing etc. Of course this would still leave him by far as the largest holder of physical supplies on the planet.
Noticed some articles these last few months about Kodak having cut production of its standard film products because of digital camera sales. You will probably see more propaganda from the silver users now that we are in the 6-7 dollar an oz. range as to do anything to soften the price pressures of the market but they will all be lies. Notice how Kodak talks about their standard film production being down but noone says anything about how much fuji films is up. Also Kodaks i hour film centers and kiosks have upped their business in the last 18 months over 40%. I'll bet that the amount of silver being used in the developing nations is up double digits as the people in those countries have more discretionary income and are consuming products that have silver, copper etc. as a raw material.
For what its worth i have a very large (to me) physical position in silver (and gold) and am pleased to see it rise in value. But the rise is price is really hollow to me as i do not believe that the fiat montary system will survive in anywhere close to it's present form to allow anyone to actually profit in decimal terms. As for the survival discussion earlier i think whether you are alone or with community (friends) will depend on where you reside. If it gets to the point that there are supply disruptions of food, fuel etc. look around you at society and see how many people there are that could make it 40-50- miles in the country on foot and put up a good fight for your provisions. I think the govt.( what there is of it) at that time will do their best to relieve suffering in the metro areas and the rural folks will be on their own. So BB's advice will be of paramount importance to those that live in the rural areas.
Nothing else to add, want to wish everyone a safe, happy, healthy and prosperous new years. Will go back to lurking and will see everyone in a couple of months when my next work project is completed.

seacross

(12/30/2003; 23:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114365)

Mind over Gold !

Last week I forewarned my colleagues that gold will test 418 when it opens after the new year. I sat amazed at the zooming gold arrow and testing 417 and above on Monday. They all whirled around to my cubicle and shouted 'what now? and where to?' I wanted to say '422 next stop and down a bit' but something tells me, the dollar is in the claw of a collective-monkey-wrench and not to get released early. Meaning no stop at 422 either and is likey to breeze past 425 and to 427 by 11th Jan NY close. Profit booking will dampen this a bit though.

Gandalf the White

(12/30/2003; 23:09:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114366)

The US$ continues its PLUNGE ! (see the chart at the LINK)

Caradoc

(12/30/2003; 23:21:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114367)

Adding a thought or two to Solomon's suggestion

I agree completely with Solomon's advice to start with physical metal in hand before (or if need be instead of) looking at precious metal equities. Going further, I'd advocate real items (land, hardware) related to physical security before venturing into equities. The GAB was correct in saying that stored water gets used up, but a reliable artesian spring with gravity flow down to your residence might let you flush while others are carrying buckets on shoulder poles or bartering for water to drink. Even without the luxury of an artesian spring, a couple of solar panels will power one of the new 24-volt submersible deep pumps and deliver a small but steady stream of water for 8 or 10 hours per day. Make it four panels and a couple of batteries and you get that same stream 24 hours per day.

Going even further (and recognizing that various events may get us to the point where "all paper will burn"), there'a a lot to be said for the leverage of numismatic coins over bullion coins. True, a stash of new gold Eagles and pre-64 silver coins ("junk silver") would be better for bartering and so belong in your initial holdings, but I can vouch that the paper dollar price of graded-and-slabbed Saint Gaudens has skyrocketed compared to the 10% increase that gold has seen between the high 370s and today's price.

What follows may sound flakey, but if/when you're ready to look at equities (i.e., you've taken care of what's real and know you're venturing into a realm that's at least slightly unreal), you might as well admit that you're playing a game where the object is to increase the number in the lower right hand corner of your monitor. There's nothing disloyal about selling when a stock is up sharply for 3 days in a row and is banging against its upper trend line. Actually, it frees up cash that you can use to buy back a couple of days later, preferably just after a mid-morning New York smashdown in the price of gold. And there's nothing inherently wrong with options. Yeah, they're "risky and not appropriate for all investors" and it's a cliche that "most options expire worthless." But my bet is that an in-the-money option good through June or July won't decay in value if you're going with a North American gold or silver producer. Instead, for the next few months it'll make that number at the bottom of your monitor grow just as if you actually owned all those shares of stock. The only hard part will be forcing yourself to unload the option on an up day when it looks like you could do even better if you held on for just one more day (as in "pigs get slaughtered.")

Finally, as you succeed in increasing the paper dollar value of your equity account, there's nothing wrong with pulling some money off the top and buying more of the real thing.

Good fortune to all!

Caradoc

Lady Liberty

(12/30/2003; 23:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114368)

Mortgage vs. Physical Holdings?

Learning lots here. Survival thread fascinating. More please! Comments on the natural gas situation?

Have decided to "break" my Roth IRA. 10% penalty tax now will be a whole lot less than later when we are moved (against our wills probably if hyperinflation occurs) into a higher tax bracket.

Spouse has proposed we put the IRA proceeds towards our mortage, cut off 1 year (7 years to go yet). We both are anxious to get house paid off.

BUT.... I don't want to shoot myself in the foot. Should I get gold, as Aristotle is fond of saying? Or go for the mortgage lump sum?

Am asking for input because it's entirely possible I am missing something really obvious, right in front of my face, or something that has never crossed my mind. TIA

Lady Liberty

(12/30/2003; 23:29:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114369)

Safeguarding physical holds

Keeping topics separate. Hence two posts.

What are some reliable holds in the home for PMs? Floor safes? Whatever you are comfortable sharing. (I imagine lots of good ideas are already out and about.)

TIA

Gold Standard

(12/30/2003; 23:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114370)

Safekeeping @ Lady Liberty

Lady Liberty,

get a copy of Edgar Allan Poe's "Purloined Letter". The best place to hide something is in plain sight.

As you said previously:-

"Am asking for input because it's entirely possible I am missing something really obvious, right in front of my face, or something that has never crossed my mind."

Cheers! GS

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 00:08:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114371)

China: The New Fulcrum Of The Global Economy?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.aspsnippit:

"But if the attempt is to achieve covert devaluation in response to weakening domestic conditions, then such a move makes much more political and economic sense.� If this is indeed the road China is choosing to go down, it will certainly reduce its ability to continue purchasing US assets at the rate at which it has been doing over the past few years, which has perilous implications for the dollar exchange rate.� Indeed, one would envisage similarly smaller inducements to purchase US assets on the part of all of Asia, since most would almost certainly respond to a Chinese devaluation (covert or overt) by a comparable competitive currency devaluation � a great backdrop for gold perhaps, but certainly not in the interests of global economic stability.

Today, China uses the peg to recycle massive dollars back into Treasuries to the US, which enables it to continually expand its capital expenditure to overproduce goods that the world doesn't need and which the Americans can only buy on credit.� It has become an increasingly important, albeit fundamentally unhealthy, dynamic in terms of engendering the current blow off witnessed in many areas, notably commodities. If the Chinese do embrace a gradual de-linkage against the dollar, then there will be a risk of at least a short-term downdraft in growth in East Asia, even as Japan and Europe will be struggling to a greater degree.� Were a financial accident in the US to arrive at the same moment -- always a possibility -- then one could easily envisage a synchronised global growth stall.� This is not what the doctor ordered in a world already characterised by massive manufacturing overcapacity and virtually no pricing leverage, but it may be (given China's underlying financial fragility) the means by which the Chinese seek to devalue their way out of disaster.� How China copes with its ongoing financial problems, and the corresponding global policy response, are likely to be major themes emerging in 2004."

Goldilox:

Marshall Auerback's latest International Perspective over at PruBear. It's an interesting risk analysis of the depeg issue.

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 00:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114372)

Yen Intervention at all-time high

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1071251836223&p=1012571727201snippit:

Japanese currency intervention reached its highest level on record in 2003 as the weakening dollar threatened to impair the competitiveness of the country's exporters.

The finance ministry spent��20,057bn on intervention this year, dwarfing the recent high of �7,641bn in 1999, monthly figures released on Tuesday showed.

Although the yen has appreciated by about 10 per cent against the dollar since January to stand at �106.94 on Tuesday,�intervention has slowed its rise and kept Japan's export-dependent economy on a recovery tack. The government's selling of yen and buying of dollars is likely to continue on a massive scale in 2004 as the US currency is forecast to remain weak. In the past 10 days the finance ministry has taken preparatory steps by replenishing the currency intervention funds it has drained this year.

The finance ministry said that in the new year it would raise the amount it can borrow for intervention until March by �21,000bn to �100,000bn and by �61,000bn to �140,000bn for the year starting in April. The increase is almost equal to the size of the US current account deficit.

Goldilox:

Wouldn't it be more fun if they just came on over and lost the money at an Indian Casino? It would accomplish about the same result.

1340cc

(12/31/2003; 00:22:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114373)

Lady Liberty post #114368

Hidy holds. Go to the next gun show in your area. There will be someone there selling "survival" books and books on how to hide something in plain sight. Think air ducts, the area under your kitchen cabnits, hollow core doors, etc.
I have been thinking of painting my 100oz. silver "bricks" red and making a flower bed out of them. ;-)

Belgian

(12/31/2003; 00:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114374)

Re :

The �-$ exchange rate going back to 1,30-1,40 is "nothing" extra-ordinary ! Simply back to the 1993-1995 period.
It is about time that all those "so-called" expert- analysts, start to see and...finally, understand the completely different (opposite) relationship of the dollar and the euro, vis a vis GOLD ! But this remains impossible for as long as a dollar-centric, tunnel-vision is on the order of the day. Amen.

Libya/Bush/Blair : Theaterical infotainment.

Oil for dollars or euro : Dollars are "offered" for oil and soon (or later), oil will "demand" (golden)euro ! Quite a nuance.

Let's keep it very simple, dear forumers : A dollar is a military fiat and a euro will become a golden fiat. Gold wins all wars !

Liberty Head

(12/31/2003; 00:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114375)

Hide The Gold

1340CC,

I like your idea for the silver lined flower bed.
I hope noone minds if I have a little fun. Continuing with that theme, perhaps add some nice wind chimes made from Philharmonics. Hide a few more coin rolls inside the lawn flamingos and a knome pushing a wheelbarrow. Toss an assortment of bullion coins in a Statue of David fountain as well. At that point, most folks would be afraid to go anywhere near it. :-)

Best Wishes

Druid

(12/31/2003; 00:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114376)

Lady Liberty (12/30/03; 23:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114368)

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
Druid: Welcome Lady Liberty to the best think tank on the Internet as it pertains too, among other topics, the topic of "free gold." World events as they pertain to finance, economics, and geo-politics...are picking up speed so buckle up because it's turning out to be a bumpy ride. As you keep up with the current discussion, might I encourage you to click on the posted URL as a foundation read on the topic of free gold. This foundation read might be a great aid in providing a backdrop against any possible confusion that you might encounter when coming across posts that are weighted towards gold ownership in the form of various securities (paper gold)as opposed to outright gold bullion ownership or a combination of both.

It's an exciting discussion and a wonderful crosscurrent of "thoughts." Good luck with your investment decisions and enjoy the chat.

Gold Standard

(12/31/2003; 01:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114377)

@ 1340cc

Hmm, sounds like a slow-revving twin to me.

I have a number of black painted, very, very ugly 5kg doorstops. (Ag rather than Au, unfortunately!)

However, a brick wall would be nice!

Cheers! GS

ski

(12/31/2003; 01:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114378)

Silver over $6 ......

R. Powell .... been here all this time! Watching the silver price over the past 5 months is a lot like watching an EKG monitor hooked up to one of your best friends. I'm sure my pulse went up when I saw it pass $6 yesterday evening. Celebrated by taking the wife out for a good movie!

So, why has silver performed so well? Several ideas come to mind in no particular order.

1. Deliverable COMEX supplies are very, very low with a lot of physical delivery taken in December.

2. There is a good chance that Eliot Spitzer and company may me watching the shorts this time (as mentioned by another poster here).

3. Barrick and other silver hedgers, who have learned their lesson from gold, may be liquidating.

4. Central Fund of Canada has ordered a nice chunk of silver bullion for the fund to sit on. (Incidently, this represents INVESTMENT silver versus industrial silver .... a very important distinction and fundamental turning point in silver demand.)

5. At the recent San Francisco gold show, numerous speakers used "gold and silver" in the same sentence ... a departure from past presentations.

6. Ted Butler recently pointed out that if you expect larger % gains in silver versus gold ..... you should be buying silver. Although this is not "rocket science", it is my experience that many investors NEED TO BE TOLD WHAT TO DO by a recognized authority.

7. Some high powered financial publications in India have very recently done feature articles on silver.

...........................

"Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices"

79. (added 12-18-03) (first time in print!) One of the "sciences" within the investment world is the study of "cycles". Personally, I think "cycle studies" are usually nothing more than a fancy way of predicting the past. However, some of what Bob Prechter says about cycles is positively "spot on". Particularly his idea that PEOPLE LEARN FROM THE PAST CYCLE AND APPLY IT TO THE NEXT CYCLE. This implies that because silver went to $50, gold to $800 and platinum to $1,000 in the last cycle, people will more easily believe that the metals can equal or exceed these levels in the present cycle. Consequently, the investing public will act on the "common knowledge" that they "gained" from the past, keeping demand strong right through the old highs.

regards to all who contribute here....

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 01:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114379)

ski!

Congrats on your widespread publication -- it was an exciting read on FSO and it'll be exciting to see the additions to it as we go forward.

One of the most COMPLETE expositions of an investment argument we'll ever see. (But sort of like Ted's been hammering on, it's a slam-dunk decision so examples just kind of throw themselves in front of you ;).

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 02:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114380)

Triggers

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Gandalf's USD link above -- pretty dramatic, and even more so since he posted it.

I wonder if there are various thresholds in currency swap or other contracts -- big ones between big institutions internationally -- that call for a re-pricing, or basically a margin call, or a cancellation, if the USD drops at an unexpected rate?

How can the Fed back up such contracts with its own product -- US Dollars -- when producing more of them only depreciates the lot of them? It can rush a few spare defenders to onee breached wall, but the enemy sweeps in at a dozen other openings. Only a matter of time...

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 03:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114381)

Thoughts on Savings, and Social Security

I updated my own long-term savings plan today. (Plan #1, though modest, was right on target after 15 years. A lot of luck in there -- and some good company -- helped me ride out some bad times.)

To update was simple, but the conclusion sobering.

I pick a target, figure out my monthly increase in net worth necessary to reach it, and set up a tracking system to look at my progress every few months. Of course the target is a guesswork at how I'll want to live decades from now, and leaves out the unknowable interim events, But -- you have to make a guess at SOMETHING -- and it gives me a prompt for how hard I need to work now, and how frugal I have to be with my earnings. (Plus how to factor in my investment results -- to let me relax somewhat, or intensify my efforts.)

(I'm also easy, at least for now, with my own slippages. That monthly goal is going to be a tough one, and I may need time to get used to it. It's not a prescription for panic, just for ramping up to some smarter efforts.)

Social Security is not in my plan, and like most people today say, it will be a bonus if it happens. The problem is, most of them really don't have anything else going besides SS and they really ARE counting on it. For most, it would be like having a $200,000 annuity going for them, and their personal savings are something like $50,000 and their home equity.

It's just impossible to believe that a $200,000 potential payable nut really can exist anywhere, in protected form, for more than the small percentage of our CURRENT retirees, let alone an onslaught of future ones. The Ponzi scheme has run too long already.

I wonder how the de facto Social Security default will play out. For political PR purposes, of course, the program will be kept propped up on the podium, like Brezhnev toward the end.

But cuts effectively will happen. And politicians will make career moves to slide down the middle of cloaking financial reality in PR illusion to "Save Social Security." But the Fed Gov will be largely insolvent by that time, bleeding from a thousand other debt obligations.

Which aspect of elderly income support will be compromised first?

My guess is that the COLAs will bear most of the loss. It was their adoption in the early 70s under Nixon that put the "trust" fund in the jeopardy it reached a decade later, when the tax rate had to be raised to its current 15.3%.

A flat, frozen paycheck for life, like the old job pension checks that were inflated away in the 70s. A likely result, given government finances and the limits on taxability of the labor force.

Expect this to be accompanied by a blitzkrieg campaign to BLAME INFLATION on outside forces (Arabs? Chinese? Euros?) and not our own Fed and Gov. They need to lose at least half the real SS obligation level before anyone notices enough to forcefully demand COLAs again.

I don't know if most people know the investment comparison on SS "contributions", by employee and employer. For the low-income person who retired 20 years ago, it has been like holding T-bonds (well, not quite as good as) with annuity-like returns something like 6%, probably all tax-free.

For the high-income earners of that time, maybe a 3% return, and that taxed down to 2%.

Today's Boomer retirees will probably see the 3% return for the low-incomers, and a flat "return of capital paid in" dollar-for-dollar for the high-earners. (Taxed, of course.)

Gen-Xers? Well, they're on to it. They say they expect zero, but the PR machine will be at work to show them it is "doing something for them, too." Probably a small minimum flat benefit?

A lot will be made of increasing longevity (that could reverse quickly, however -- as it did in post-Soviet Russia as retirees were left with defaulted pensions), in order to raise the age for each benefit level. And, by 2012, when they find me and a few million others running to grab the reduced benefit at age 62, they'll panic over the drain on the Federal cash flow. Wouldn't be surprised at a sudden age raise, or another means test.

I also can't imagine millions of elderly being allowed to "pass their golden years in dignity" in the homes in which they've built up some spendable equity. In other words, I think they'll be forced to sell (or take reverse-annuity mortgages -- selling on the installment plan) in order to survive. Plus take in boarders, or kids, or -- like one 84-year-old woman I know -- party animal grandkids. Sheesh!

Playing the inter-generational battle will be some politicians' forte, as well. I wonder if AARP has strategists at this point talking about how to counter that? Politically, they would talk a good "social contract for the good of all generations" line, while holding what they can for their constituency.

Statesmenlike conduct would call instead for them becoming "good parents" to society and maintaining the best elements of SS while equalizing the lifetime returns of ALL contributors to the fund. And sequestering it from the rest of US Gov finances.

Our role in all of this? I'm not one who thinks we need to promote the role of gold. I think that is for INDIVIDUALS to arrive at, one by one, on their own. Gold is real savings, which remains after all other schemes fold up and leave town.

Society cannot benefit AS A WHOLE by adopting gold saving. Only individuals can, by their own astute decision-making. One individual will get the Eagle the other does not. The Eagle will exist, in one hand or another, no matter how we try to teach common-sense economic saving. And US Americans will not reach for their share, no matter what we say, before the rest of the world has beaten them to the lion's share. In other words, the price will be high before we stop the bleeding on these shores.

But the sudden onset of panic over SS (the great narcotic against self-saving) and the realization of how small an individual's reliable savings truly are will lead to those individuals cashing in what they can of the other plans and tucking away those few small gold holdings, in hopes that the high price they've paid will still be doubled or tripled before they need to cash it in, so they may eat.

That hope, and the hope that their kids will still take them in.

Those last-ditch efforts by them will help re-price our "too-early" efforts at the same necessary saving. We may have enough extra to help a few others, but perhaps we'd do better to collectively endow a Mises chair at a few universities?

The decline of life's working energies into death is the ultimate Fundamental, and everyone will intersect that curve somewhere. To be helpless without savings was perhaps the ultimate preventable fear in all human history. It was certainly paid attention to as a natural part of life. Among other choices, and gambles.

Our fiat and social "safety-net" system has short-circuited and WASTED the fruitful years that should have gone to meeting that fundamental. The consequences may be tragic for some, but I choose to hope that many will adopt simpler living with a sense of relief, and a view toward a human future more sustainable than the time we have just lived through.

In other words, people will reap what they have sown, mostly. It's just sad that some will find that they have bought, and tended, bad seed, all these years...

Caradoc

(12/31/2003; 04:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114382)

Mortgage?

Lady Liberty: Instinct would say to pay off the house. But... since there's only enough to pay it down by a fraction... since you'll still be making house payments anyway... and since those ARE retirement dollars rather than "house dollars," I lean in a different direction. Specifically, take advantage of the fact that the next several months offer the combination of a collapsing dollar and artificially low short-term interest rates.

Most adjustable-rate mortgages will be heading north despite "re-election special" short term rates, but a so-called line-of-credit or equity line (usually employed a second mortgage) can serve admirably at least between now and some time after November to carry your whole mortgage. Schwab, for example, is doing these at 3/4% less than prime which amounts to 3 1/4% interest. Payments are interest only and should be low enough to reduce your payments by hundreds of dollars per month while you put your retirement dollars into some mix of silver and gold numismatic coins. For example, MS-64 Saint Gaudens and MS-65 Peace dollars.

With any luck. a handful or two of Saints might pay off the whole mortgage next November.

Just how I see it....

Caradoc

Caradoc

(12/31/2003; 04:16:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114383)

Hall of Fame nomination

Mr Gresham's post 114381 belongs in the Hall of Fame. I've already pasted the text into emails sent to friends and relatives.

Superb insights, Mr Gresham!

Caradoc

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 05:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114384)

Uncle Billy & J.M. Keynes

Images of two famous personalities come to mind, as I drift toward bed (yawn):

Imagining Congress, when ultimately asked "Where did all our Social Security/retirement money go?" I get the picture of the doddering, drunk Uncle Billy from "It's a Wonderful Life" losing all of the bank's cash as he goes to deposit it at Potter's bank.

And, R Powell, Solomon, Waverider, physicalman, others -- silver's move has me thinking of an answer to Keynes' great old witticism: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain insolvent." (Boy, haven't I been lashed by some of that this year!)

"Not if you're holding unleveraged physical."

(And my take, from all I have gleaned from ski and Butler and others, is that they see the suppression's resulting leverage in physical silver as moving its performance closer to the leverage you would expect in the silver equities, than is the parallel case with gold.)

(One of the risks of gold equities -- governmental intrusion into the flow of profits to owners -- I read as being more likely than with silver equities, a more obscure and so far off-the-radar market. So, I see a 2 x 2 grid between the physical and equities of gold and silver, with these factors improving the returns on physical in both relative to the greater leverage in equities you would expect under a stable financial system of booking profits and paying dividends. Risk/reward calls for respecting a greater allocation to physical, and then venturing out to equities. A systemic breakdown which denies profits from mining will be likely compensated by profits in physical.)

(You just want to be sure you don't get "dematerialized". Beam me up, Ari... ;)

Belgian

(12/31/2003; 06:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114385)

@Druid

The Gold Trail link (A/FOA) you posted...Could Libya soon become *another* privileged oil-reserve-state, qualifying for Gold-inflow for oil-outflow ?

Toolie

(12/31/2003; 07:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114386)

Dear Uncle Al,

http://www.freep.com/money/business/tool30_20031230.htmI hope this letter finds you well.

How are the new high flow oil cooled ceramic bearings working out on the Turbo Printzilla 10,000? No more instantaneous product combustion, I hope!

Last we spoke, Cousin Ben was hadn't decided on were to place the "Great Wall" of presses he had on order. So is it next to the Hoover Dam of the Nuclear reactor? Or is he still playing with his economic models? Call me stubborn, but I still think you would be farther ahead by off-shoring production and letting the Chinese worry where the energy is going to come from. Of course you could just add a couple of zeros to each bill (HA, HA, just had to say it).

My trade is picking up a little, but things are still tough (see link). I kinda got what you said about your problems with "triffins Dilemma" but before I could think it through, I got Triffin confused with Tribbles and couldn't get the picture out of my head of you getting pelted by Triffins falling from the cargo bay doors. I'll try again, following your advice; a bottle of whiskey and some country music should drain the humor right out of me.

Belated congratulations on your invite to stick around the shop. Wasn't that right around the time your house got broken into? You said something about lifting prints from the water gate; I didn't notice the creek last time I was over. I'll have to pay more attention. Did they ever catch those guys?

For a considerable period, un-disrespectfully yours

Toolie

P.S. OUCH! Just noticed this. Tell Ben to put down his models a pick a place for those presses.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031231/economy_mortgages_7.html

(12/31/2003; 08:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114387)

News & Views

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Best Wishes for a Happy and Prosperous New Year from all of us at USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals.

Breaking News!! One of our staff surreptitiously snapped this photo of Spot celebrating the New Year (at the link above).

Melting Pot

(12/31/2003; 09:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114388)

The Desires of individuals for Larger or Smaller Holdings: A look at the Facts

http://www.libertyhaven.com/regulationandpropertyrights/bankingmoneyorfinance/valuemoney.htmlThe following machinations are presented to stimulate thoughts and logical debate on the coming new year:

The most important determinant of purchasing power of money under this heading of "money-induced factors" is the very attitude of the people toward money and their possession of certain cash holdings. They may decide for one reason or another to increase or reduce their holdings. An increase of cash holdings by many individuals tends to raise the exchange value of money, reduction of cash holdings tends to lower it.

This is so well understood that even the mathematical economists emphasize the money "velocity" in their equations and calculations of money value. Velocity of circulation is defined as the average number of times in a year which a dollar serves as income (the income velocity) or as an expenditure (the transaction's velocity) . Of course, this economic use of a term borrowed from physics ignores acting man who increases or reduces his cash holdings. Even when it is in transport, money is under the control of its owners who choose to spend it or hold it, make or delay payment, lend or borrow. The mathematical economist who weighs and measures, and thereby ignores the choices and preferences of acting individuals, is tempted to control and manipulate this "velocity" in order to influence the value of money. He may even blame individuals (who refuse to act in accordance with his model) for monetary depreciation or appreciation. And governments are only too eager to echo this blame; while they are creating ever new quantities of printing press money, they will restrain individuals in order to control money velocity.

It is true, the propensity to increase or reduce cash holdings by many people exerts an important influence on the purchasing power of money. But in order to radically change their holdings, individuals must have cogent reasons. They endeavor to raise their holdings whenever they foresee depressions ahead. And they usually lower their holdings whenever they anticipate more inflation and declining money value. In short, they tend to react rationally and naturally to certain trends and policies. Government cannot change or prevent this reaction; it can merely change its own policies that brought forth the reaction.

When more and more individuals begin to realize that the inflation is a willful policy and that it will not end very soon, they may react by reducing their cash holdings. Why should they hold cash that depreciates, and why should they not purchase more goods and services right now before prices rise again? This reaction intensifies the price-raising effects of the inflation. While government inflates and people reduce their money demand, goods prices will rise rapidly and the purchasing power of money decline accordingly.

Passing the Buck

It may happen that the government may temporarily halt its inflation, (Think the created illusion of a declining M3: my emphasis) and yet the people continue to reduce their cash demand. The central bank inflators may then point to the stability of the money supply, and blame the people for "irrational" behavior and reaction. The government thus exculpates itself and condemns the spending habits of the people for the inflation. But in reality, the people merely react to past experiences and therefore anticipate an early return of inflationary policies. The monetary development during most of 1969 reflected this situation.

Finally, the people may totally and irrevocably distrust the official fiat money. When in desperation they finally conclude that the inflation will not end before their money is essentially destroyed, they may rush to liquidate their remaining cash holdings. When any purchase of goods and services is more advantageous than holding rapidly depreciating cash, the value of money approaches zero. The money then ceases to be money, the sole medium of exchange.

END SNIP:

Oh so thats the deal eh, it's really a mixed bag of 1720 and 1929 again? Drop the value of the dollar, declare war on the savers and herd the sheeple into the stock and bond markets as a safe haven to save the world economy....or is there something more sinister lurking?

"The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the U.S. stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported any earnings." --Paul Volcker, Ex-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, September, 1999

The thought continues to enter into my thinking that the world economy and US government has already financially collapsed, it just hasn't been televised or publicly addressed yet. These thoughts eminate from the continuing collapses of large major corporate entities such as Parmalate, Enron, World Com, Tyco, etc., etc., etc. The only time in economic history that such collapses continue to occur are in times of inflationary or deflationary depression. Are the debt bombs igniting slow motion as the dollar drama ripens and comes to fruition!

It would seem Mr. Greenspan has resorted to John Law's
"Real Bills Doctrine" in a last ditch effort as money is applied as the "reflux principle" to the money supply. Money, as Law argued, was credit and credit was determined by the "needs of trade". Consequently, the amount of money in existence is determined not by the imports of gold or trade balances, but rather on the supply of credit in the economy. And money supply (in opposition to the Quantity Theory) is endogenous, determined by the "needs of trade".

http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/law.htm

(REF: The response to the crash since March 2000 has been to create even more money. Just as it was 300 years ago. Strange things are going on in the world at large. But not strange to a citizen of Paris in 1720***.--Barron's Interview with Hugh Hendry - by Vito J. Racanelli)

In the end, what else can Greenspan do when such debt and trade imbalances exist in global trade but to print Weimar Style hoping to inflate away or buy just a little more time? He knows the scenario all to well....yet fails to address how these imbalances were created in the first place. The "livre & dollar debt bubbles 1720 & 1920's style" has the world economy imbalanced and trapped....

"By 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed." --Alan Greenspan Gold & Economic Freedom 1966

The question remains...are the common people consciously and intentionally seeking safe haven from declining dollar, or are they a part of a herding process? I do not give the common investor much credit as an individual thinker, therefore I assume s/he is being herded...but by whom? The Institutional Investors (401, Roth, Mutual Fund managers, etc.) that understand the concept of safe haven investing or by FED & Government intentions? If by FED intentions, are the institutional investors being herded too?

"The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves." --Alan Greenspan, Gold and Economic Freedom 1966

How would a bankrupt and insolvent state continue to operate long term with growing $7 trillion outstanding public debt, $44 trillion contingent liabilities, mounting trillion dollar triple annual deficts, tax cuts and massive off balance sheet debt and derivative positions???

Mr. Speaker, we are here now in Chapter 11. Members of Congress are official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any bankrupt entity in world history, the U.S. Government. --Congressman James Traficant, The Congressional Record, Volume 134 Number 33, Wednesday, March 17, 1993

http://autarchic.tripod.com/files/bankrupt.html

Somethings very amiss wouldn't you say? This is contrary to 5000 years of economic trade laws and principles...so wheres the funding really coming from? Are we really to believe that private and sovereign foreign investors, the most prudent class of investor would continue to finance a proven insolvent entity without regard to financial and economic self preservation? Are we really to believe Japan is willing, "AS REPORTED BY MONOPOLY PRESS" to intervene in the FOREX markets to the tune of $1 trillon annually when their 2002 export market is estimated to be $383.8 billion to KEEP the Yen competitive??? The math doesn't add up! Look at these facts then YOU decide:

Japan:

Annual GDP: purchasing power parity - $3.651 trillion (2002 est.)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 1.4%
industry: 30.9%
services: 67.7% (2001 est.)

Labor force - by occupation: services 70%, industry 25%, agriculture 5% (2002 est.)

Budget:

revenues: $441 billion
expenditures: $718 billion, including capital expenditures (public works only) of about $0 NA (FY 01/02 est.)

Exports:
$383.8 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Exports - partners:
US 28.8%, China 9.6%, South Korea 6.9%, Taiwan 6.2%, Hong Kong 6.1% (2002)

Imports:
$292.1 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Imports - partners:
China 18.3%, US 17.4%, South Korea 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%, Australia 4.1% (2002)

Debt - external:
$NA

Source: CIA Factbook
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ja.html#Econ

Next lets take a quick look at China,

GDP: purchasing power parity - $5.989 trillion (2002 est.)

Labor force - by occupation:
agriculture 50%, industry 22%, services 28% (2001 est.)

Budget:
revenues: $224.8 billion
expenditures: $267.1 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2000)

Exports:
$325.6 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Exports - partners:
US 21.5%, Hong Kong 18%, Japan 14.9%, South Korea 4.8% (2002)

Imports:
$295.3 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Imports - partners:
Japan 18.1%, Taiwan 10.5%, South Korea 9.7%, US 9.2%, Germany 5.6% (2002)

Debt - external:
$149.4 billion (2002 est.)

Source: CIA Factbook
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html#Econ

Now a glance at US data:

GDP: purchasing power parity - $10.45 trillion (2002 est.)

Labor force - by occupation:
managerial and professional 31%, technical, sales and administrative support 28.9%, services 13.6%, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and crafts 24.1%, farming, forestry, and fishing 2.4%
note: figures exclude the unemployed (2001)

Budget:
revenues: $1.946 trillion
expenditures: $2.052 trillion, including capital expenditures of NA (2002 est.)

Exports:
$687 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Exports - partners:
Canada 23.2%, Mexico 14.1%, Japan 7.4%, UK 4.8% (2002)

Imports:
$1.165 trillion f.o.b. (2002 est.)

Imports - partners:
Canada 17.8%, Mexico 11.3%, China 11.1%, Japan 10.4%, Germany 5.3% (2002)

Debt - external:
$862 billion (1995 est.) (Gee no updates since 1995, are you surprised?)

Source: CIA Factbook
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#Econ

When comparing the data of USA v. Japan, USA v. China is there any wonderment that the US dollar is collapsing against Gold and all major currencies? The numbers just dont add up or BALANCE in logical order.....

"Some economists also cite the level of taxation as an important factor in the determination of the exchange value of money. According to Colin Clark, whenever governments consume more than 25 per cent of national product, the reduction in productive capacity as a result of such an oppressive tax burden causes goods prices to rise and the purchasing power of money to fall. According to that view, with which one may disagree, high rates of taxation are the main cause of "inflation." At any rate, there can be no doubt that the American dollar has suffered severely from the burdens of Federal, state, and local government spending and taxing that exceed 35 per cent of American national product."

http://www.libertyhaven.com/regulat...valuemoney.html

And as another last ditch effort to support the FED and the phoney fiat dollar experiment in America, immigration runs unabated whilst domestic unemployment rises and jobs are exported directly against "the will of the sovereign peoples," and the social unintended consequences of such a policy, to wit;

Factors on the Side of Money

There also are a number of factors that affect the demand for money on the money side of an exchange. A growing population (Think unabated immigration: my emphasis), for instance, with millions of maturing individuals eager to establish cash holdings, generates new demand, which in turn tends to raise the purchasing power of money and to reduce goods prices.

On the other hand, a declining population would generate the opposite effect.

http://www.libertyhaven.com/regulat...valuemoney.html

In conclusion it appears all stops have been pulled out to support the fiat dollar, yet the entropy continues to decline as the pressures of the debt-berg begin colliding with the USS Titanic. In such an environment, where and how does the fictional government gather and raise needed funds to continue operating? Thats a very good question. How low would the bureaucrats and politicians alike go to
continue perpetuating their self-perceived authority and cushy government jobs?

Who Made The AA 'Put'Options The Days Prior To 911?

http://www.rense.com/general46/911.html

It has been written:

"Had political-economic rulers directed humankind's destiny throughout history, mankind would by now be extinct!"

I don't know what the future holds for 2004 and beyond, I can only judge from the past. In light of the foregoing, and the continued broken promises of today that paper assets represent, there is but one storehouse of value remaining, that is physically held Precious Metals.

Good luck to all in 2004, we are going to need it with or without PM's.....

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 10:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114389)

CIA Asian economy numbers

@ Melting Pot

You cetainly get the award for the longest post in a while.

A quick summation of the "major" partners in the CIA Import/Export numbers reveals the following:

Japan:
Exports 57.6%
Imports 44.4%

China
Exports 59.2%
Imports 53.1%

According to these reports, major partners account for barely half of Japan and China's imports and exports. It would be interesting to know, for instance, which group of MINOR trading partners account for the bulk of 55.6% of Japan's imports. Are they really willing to risk the other 71.2% of their business to "prop up" the 28.8% they sell to the USA?

As you so aptly put, "The math doesn't add up!"

Not to suggest that numbers should be ignored, I believe the quantity of FUD in "official" gubmint and corp'rit numbers places their "fudge factors' rather on the HIGH side.

What was that my father said?

"The three major forms of deception include lies, damn lies, and statistics."

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 10:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114390)

And a "morning after 'oops'"

Of course, that's "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,", not "insolvent."

(However, perhaps they'll make a special exception in my case, to include all eventualities...;) )

Operative

(12/31/2003; 11:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114391)

The Right Stuff

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGARED9MVOD.htmlWest Virginia Boy, 12, Rescues 18-Month-Old Sister From Fire; Credits Boy Scout Training

PARKERSBURG, W.Va. (AP) - A 12-year-old boy saved his 18-month-old sister from a fire in their home, running through smoke and flames and carrying her out through a second-floor window onto a porch roof.

She's my sister, and I'm supposed to take care of her," said Michael Wedekamm, who suffered minor burns and smoke inhalation in the fire early Tuesday.

"Michael went up to get the baby. The rest of them went out the back door," said Lt. Carl Sizemore, Parkersburg's chief fire inspector.

The boy had to kick out a window screen and climb onto the porch roof because the stairway was filled with smoke, authorities said.
He handed his young sister, Allison, to his 11-year-old sister on the ground and jumped to safety.

Michael credited his Boy Scout training with helping him pick the best escape route.

"He went through some flames; he got singed up pretty good," said Michael's father, Shane Wedekamm. "I'm proud of him. The boy did good."

Comment: I hesitated to post this story thinking at first it was off topic for this esteemed table. But then, what better way to add a true epic of heroic proportions to demonstrate the ideals and goals that we all here share. I felt this post needed to be added to the last page of this forum, on the last day of this year, 2003. Perhaps, one of the topics to be discussed here in '04, will be to set up a Golden Eagle award for occasions such as this. This young man certainly gets my vote for the first one to be given out. A hero in heart, and deed, he is one of us.

Operative

(12/31/2003; 11:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114392)

A New Look For 2004

http://shipofdreams.net/lotr/index.htmGive that computer a new look this year. Many thanks to "SILVERCOON" from a nearby castle for posting this link. Dare I say, Gandalf never looked so good.

Gandalf the White

(12/31/2003; 11:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114393)

"GREAT FIND", Sir Operative ! <;-)

Operative (12/31/03; 11:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114392)
A New Look For 2004
===
WOWSERS !!!
Thanks, Sir Operative
These will keep all the Hobbits busy "wallpapering" all the computer monitors in the Shire.
I must go out and get more of that "Silver based PHOTO" paper to print each and every one !
YES, 2004 is going to be GOLDEN !!!
"HAPPY NEW YEAR", ALL.
<;-)

USAGOLD Daily Market Report

(12/31/2003; 11:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114394)

Page Update!

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Happy New Year one and all. We end the year with gold well above $415 an ounce and the other precious metals looking good as well. Still, you boyz and girlz a little slow on the draw can still get an order in before this year is out unless the Castle closed up early today. If not, then a another three or four hours are left.

Anyway, I am off until next year and must get on the road with the current break in the weather. I have been marooned in Utah for the last few days due a a blizzard (worst since 1972 they say - where's Global Warming when you need it). Otherwise be happy and celebrate an above all else be safe - I hope to see (or at least read from you all soon).

Cheers!

Jon H. Warner PG

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 11:54:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114395)

Minas

yes, what a great find. Gandalf looks so good, I added him to my desktop pictures folder.

It even worked on my Mac!!!

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 11:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114396)

Ring images

ooooooo - If I select random desktops, I get a slideshow of the movie characters I downloaded in the background of my work. This is TOOOOOO COOOOOL.

Gandalf the White

(12/31/2003; 12:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114397)

Today's chart of the US$ !

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Can you all say "Attempted and FAILED MANIPULATION" ?
===
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
===
YES, that is a long LINK (and it can be supersized !)
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(12/31/2003; 12:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114400)

Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what the New Year will bring.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115

Operative

(12/31/2003; 13:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114401)

Reflections of Time Past

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/31200212/default.htmlIn reflecting back on this years trek along golden trail, you may wish to start at the beginning, December 31, 2002.

Wishing All a Happy New Year, and Blessings For 2004.

* Safe trip to Jon W on his homeward bound journey.
* Special thanks to MK and staff, for providing this cyber castle where the heart can be warmed, and thoughts engaged.
* Offered to each poster is a heartfelt Thank You, for all that is shared within these silver guilded pages with golden thread weaved as binding. I never knew, I knew so little.

TownCrier

(12/31/2003; 13:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114402)

Eurosystem reserve revaluations

On this, the day of the Eursystem's quarterly mark-to-market revaluation of Int'l reserves, the bottom line is that paper has suffered while gold has held firm since the last revaluation on Sept. 30th.

Holdings of yen have fallen in unit value from �128.8/� to approx 135 yen per euro.

Holdings of dollars have fallen in unit value from $1.16/� to approx 1.26 dollars per euro.

Holdings of Special Drawing Rights have fallen in value from EUR 1.225 to approx EUR 1.18 per each.

Holdings of gold, however, have nudged higher, from EUR 329.986 to approx EUR 331 per ounce.

The final, official revaluation numbers should be available next Wednesday.

R.

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 14:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114403)

Failed Manipulation

@ Gandalf

perhaps the manipulators were too busy helping NASDOG finish 2003 at 2003.xx!!

Mr Gresham

(12/31/2003; 15:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114404)

Operative

I say "ditto" to your last two posts. New Year's greetings, and a hero's reward. They are both in full keeping with what our fine company shares here each day.

And the same greetings to our neighbors, some of whom do stop by to check our thoughts here. You may be like me; I have foregone registering to post at other fine castles, for, my time must be apportioned sparingly, and, I fear I would grow confused if my thoughts were to mingle in the discussions at more than one castle. (I can barely keep up here, to do justice to the efforts you put in.)

Know that I read you with much appreciation, and I hope you know how deserved your increased wealth has been this year. Among all who hold real wealth, I know you will use it most wisely.

(12/31/2003; 15:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114406)

New Years Message

Last year on New Year's Eve I said that if 2002 was the year of gold's return (it was up 24% on the year), then 2003 would be the year of gold's revenge (gold was up 20% on the year). The epitome of that revenge, need I say it, was Barrick's renunciation of hedging and promise to essentially put its book to rest. Gold's revenge was also illustrated by the steady drop in LBMA volumes -- which (those of you who have read my writings over the years already know) represents the paper portion of the gold carry trade in all its manifestations. You will continue to see the banking portion of the gold business shrink in size as the physical business continues to expand on a global basis.

So how do I characterize 2004?

I'll put it in a nutshell:

If 2002 was the year of 'gold's return' and 2003 the year of 'gold's revenge'. Then 2004 will go down as the year of 'gold's victory -- the ascent to its rightful place atop the world of financial assets '. And that will not be the end of it. It will be just the beginning.

MK
2004

To all our greatly appreciated posters who have kept us informed, kept us thinking, kept us in the game through good times and bad, I invite you to post your thoughts and feelings for 'Gold 2004' over the next few days. I think many of us would like to hear from our favorite posters on this subject. Now is a good time to get it on the board. I just thought I'd lead the way.

The CoinGuy

(12/31/2003; 16:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114407)

Barricks Reversal on hedging...

MK,

The icing on my cake will always be "Barrick's 48hr Reversal".

Classic,

The (PHYSICAL) CoinGuy

P.S. A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL POSTERS!!!

Cavan Man

(12/31/2003; 16:25:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114408)

Hi Mike....

Could be "Return of the King"? I like the ring :>). Happy New Year...God bless all here....CM

(12/31/2003; 16:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114409)

C-Man

Happy New Year, C-Man. I appreciate your presence here and friendship. Blessings and Happiness for 2004!

No, I see a victory -- victorious battle -- not in the sense of an ultimate victory. The coronation -- ultimate victory -- may come down the road. There is much ahead of us between here and there.

As this financial/economic drama unfolds over the coming year, we -- all of us -- will reinvent this forum and website continuously and again as a personal, vital 'tool for the modern era.'

(12/31/2003; 16:42:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114410)

Yes, Coin Guy. . .

I see Barrick as the number one gold story for 2003. Right behind it, the devaluation of the dollar. And third the 20%+ rise in the price as the third top story.

Happy New Year, CG!

(12/31/2003; 16:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114411)

Add on to Coin Guy post

CG. . .When I posted my reaction to the Barrick story, I ended with the inscription "hanta yo"

Hanta yo in the Lakota Sioux dialect translates to

"Clear the way!"

The Barrick reversal clears the way.

Pizz

(12/31/2003; 17:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114412)

Year End

As we enter a new year, keep in mind that for all short term, practical aspirations, we gold advocates have had a pretty good year. In fact, a good couple of years, and will more than likely have a good decade relatively speaking.

My greatest concern over the next few years is not problems with stocks, bonds, interest rates, trade deficits, budget deficits, debt levels, reserve currencies, derivatives, real estate values, accounting irregularities, resource depletion, global warming, mad cows, SARS, or any of the other myriad of imbalances that have, are, or will occur (We've had a bunch, though haven't we?). Most have all been problems before, have been solved one way or another, and will be again, and again.

My greatest concern is the relatively rampant influx of technology into the world and our ability as humans, to be able to deal with these problems psychologically, intelligently, and emotionally.

Computers and our information technology have managed to take the business, economic, and social cycles and compress them into immediate awareness. Patience has never been one of my better traits, and I'm far from being alone. Now keep this thought, multiply it a few hundred million times, factor in the Internet and instantaneous monetary reactions to virtually all information available, and you have a macro situation that we, as mere mortals are about as apt to win without SEVERE pain, as a high school football team in the Super Bowl.

In the past (prior to 1992 or so), we've had both the time and capital resources to handle economic problems. Oil embargos, dollar devaluations, stock market corrections, etc., etc. have all been weathered, but with time and some pain. Now, when a problem appears, we demand instant solutions, and use up capital that DID NOT just instantly appear. Immediate gratification has caused knee-jerk reactions and politically expedient misallocations of capital, that in times past would have been solved or at least mitigated with the resources at hand, whether social or monetary capital. Is it surprising that the government has had to finally go to the instantaneous creation of capital (printing) to try to keep up?

Between the government and citizens of this country, we have used up nearly every nickel of our savings, our home equity, our Social Security funds, borrowed on the future, sold into the future, and are now holding our debt over the heads of other countries. Japan is playing the bungee cord for the dollar. The Euro block will be next as the pain from a too strong of a currency will be too much politically. China will play, but within their own rules and Taiwan will be the spoils. Russia scares me right now, since they've already bottomed, survived, and while we are about to have our own little "awakening".

Will the playing field worldwide be able to be leveled to some sort of equilibrium that allows for some type of "living" as we (used to) know it? I have my doubts. Too many people, too few resources, too much greed, and without enough pieces of the pie to go around no matter how thin it's cut. When in doubt, most hedge their bets, and when too many hedge, the hedges have a tendency to be the problem. Derivatives may be a good example, and we'll probably find out first hand.

What will history say as to what should have been the warning to all that both the Fourth Turning and the Kondratieff Winter could not be both socially and economically defeated? In my humble opinion, it will be the hedge that our government has created under the guise of . Namely Patriot I, II, and Homeland Security. Keep the presses running, pull out every stop necessary for as long as you can, until. . . . .. I personally think the government has given up on economic solutions. None that will work are politically acceptable (like a gold standard � and it could be done). As in life, business, or government, we the people demand that the problems be fixed, but the fix cannot include anything that affects US in a negative way. Fix it but don't change a damn thing that affects my available time or living standard except to have both go up . . .now just how many times have I been in that situation in my career. . . . . quite a few, and you know, it can't be done.

Gold in 2004? The anti-gold crowd will be trying to convince us that we're going to have the mother of all double tops at about 850.

Silver in 2004? Going to surprise everyone, and live Rhode Island Reds will become an endangered species as all try to figure out "why".

To all, may 2004 be as good or better than 2003.

P.S.

My resolutions for the year are as follows, in the order of, (and if I failed last year, it goes to the top for this year)

1. Quit smoking (been number 1 for a while)
2. Be not a borrower or lender (debt free totally by end of 2004)
3. Double my physical gold.
4. Triple my physical silver.
5. Learn how to beat both 2 and 3 into plowshares, bullets, fishing lures, or anything else required in case SHTF.

Pizz

(12/31/2003; 18:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114414)

Black Blade, Randy, All: The dollar carry trade/What goes around, comes around

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031231/markets_forex_carry_1.htmlFor years we emphasized that the gold carry trade was the primary drag on the gold price, because through leverage it worked to flood the market with paper gold. Now, stories like the one linked above are beginning to emerge about the 'dollar carry trade' -- a trading opportunity, no doubt, that the hedge funds are very happy to find gift-wrapped and waiting for them on the financial table. The new 'trade' is accelerating the upward movement in the euro no doubt and playing a role in the gold price.

One of the more interesting aspects of the carry trade situation, whichever financial instrument is targeted, is the fact that off-shore hedge funds are able to magnify the movement in currency markets far beyond what would occur without the leverage and carry trade locked-in profits. When gold was targeted and Alan Greenspan was pressed on regulating the hedge funds in this respect during Congressional testimony, he begged off saying that the free market should be allowed to be the free market. Now, with the dollar under attack, and people like Soros and Buffett publicly admitting to speculation with massive capital against the dollar, one wonders what the response of the authorities -- particularly the U.S. Treasury and the US Federal Reserve Bank -- might be. The article above implies that the Fed, for one, might be on gold for the entirety of 2004 (an election year). The trashing of the dollar, it would seem at least on the surface, is policy, except of course in Japan.

Most of us recall Soros' successful speculation against the British pound, and the impotence of both the British government and the Bank of England in terms of effective reponse to defend the currency. Now the dollar -- the world's reserve currency -- has been targeted. With Japan, a trash currency (as BB points out in his report today) on par with wampum and seashells (I believe is how he put it), there aren't many alternatives out there for this high-velocity, highly leveraged money to make these carry trades worked.

I think we may be surprised in the coming year what happens in the gold market. The same leverage that was a blessing for the dollar and bond market in the 1990s may become a curse in the 'oughts' with gold the ultimate beneficiary.

CoBra(too)

(12/31/2003; 18:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114415)

On the Other Side of Midnight -

for almost 2 hours already into 2004.

I would like to take the opportunity to wish all of you a great and golden new year.

Mike has expressed it nicely in one of his recent posts - 2004, the year of gold's victory.

Thanks to all of you and especially to MK and his brilliant team ... and also special thanks to BB for his excellent efforts - cb2, who loves you all ...

TownCrier

(12/31/2003; 18:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114416)

There he is, Spot, ringing in the new year... gads, Mike.

http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlSeriously. That's (almost) criminal.

(Just only as long as everyone knows I had no part in it.)

No haikus this time, just this: My very best wishes to ALL -- for a New Year filled with inspiration for shaping what lies ahead, and for comprehension of all that unfolds.

Randy

Buongiorno!

(12/31/2003; 18:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114417)

2003 'item' of the year

Gentlepersons, may I respectfuly suggest that there is a difference between Barrick announcing the 'end of hedging as we know it' and Newmont actually covering 10-12MM oz au--somehow, during this last year? Both are significant, but one represents deeds done, while the other represents things to come?

I know, a small detail, but (aw shucks) just had to point it out.

To all, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

"Buon Finalmente, Buon Principio, 'e Buon Anno Nuovo!"

Andrea Bocelli is singing for me, my bride awaits an evening of dancing....life is good!

Chin-chin--ting
BUONGIORNO!

The CoinGuy

(12/31/2003; 19:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114418)

MK,, Appreciate the Reply(ies)...

Hanta Yo...to the Physical yellow metal in 2004. "The newsletter writers", as Sinclair is calling this group who had turned bearish in the $390's, will probably get scared at $450. My official call for 2004 is $565-70, technically and fundamentally I believe we are headed there post haste. If my arm was twisted, I would also state, two periods of consolidation will be involved in this process. I never, and I MEAN NEVER, thought I would say this, "buy the dip".

Perhaps we are headed to another bend on the Gold Trail in regards to FOA's scenario. As you have commented on the dollar, it has been on my mind alot lately. The dollar decline is becoming quite interesting. The Relentless decline is getting some notice, a bounce might be in order for a good scare to the Dollar shorts who are leaning strongly to one side of the boat, but I'd have to say FOA has/d made a good call. Although, the oil call is the ace in the hole, and I'm betting he is holding a Royal Flush by the time this hand is played out.

The Wild card in all of this for the public, is maintaining some semblance of purchasing power going forward. The Stock Market will not do this, so please do not try. Most serious investors don't only hedge their currency risk, but they hedge the hedge of their currency risk to actually stay ahead of the game(another story). It is becoming apparent that some diversification into the precious metals is needed, just to stay even.

I'm looking forward to gold rising in all currencies as we go forward.

I am in firm resolution to my convictions, as well as my own study of Geo-Politics that I believe we are indeed on the right Trail, so to speak. I recall someone, and I do apologize for forgetting who, posted a list of signs to watch as we move along this trail. Perhaps, this could be "re-posted", I glanced at it when posted and felt it was a fair representation. Whoever did the work, did some homework as well.

I understand it is hard to stay on the Trail when the Trail Guide himself is lost, MK ought to get a search party together and find him. Although, if he is never to be found, I believe enough was said, afterall as FOA quipped the story was never about him.

I'm heading back into my lair, but I sincerely wish the best for all at USAGOLD for 2004.

The CoinGuy

2004: War, Gold, Oil and the Dollar.

Druid

(12/31/2003; 19:48:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114419)

Operative (12/30/03; 22:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114362)

@ Druid Re: Lybia"I wonder if the Lybian leader is a better reader of the "writings on the wall" than Saddam was?

Is this recent turn of events showing a two prong effort on the USA's part? The arab world is divided in many avenues. It would be an error to think otherwise. History has shown this to be true. Arab nation vs arab nation. Most arab nations have major conflicts amongst even their own populataions. Has the US declared "war" on the most radical arab countries, and at the same time offered an olive leaf to the one's willing to negoiate thier future?"

Druid: Operative, you are absolutely correct in what you stated above about the arab world being divided. It would would appear that our recent military actions might be the common denominator that brings them together to our detriment. Let's see how the "olive" leaf towards Lybia works out.

specie-man

(12/31/2003; 19:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114420)

Sign Posts along the "Trail"

Hello CoinGuy,

I think you might be referring to my "Gold Price Countdown" post (also known as "The Fall Of 2005"). If not, then sorry for the lengthy re-post !

The next key sign along the Trail will be when inflation rises to uncomfortable levels in Asian countries that are currently buying large quantities of US debt. China is approaching those inflation levels but Japan is holding things up right now. So when Japan "breaks" and is forced to stop dumping Yen for Dollars, look out !

Here is the entire post:

Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005 A Speculation By "specie-man" - 10 November, 2003

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see (COMEX) - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the intentions of these major buyers are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher (by orders of magnitude) in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This monstrous gold price increase would signal the beginning of a new world order. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly in the last four years, but the rise has been relatively gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when their last chance will be to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as towards an explosion in the price of gold (as a result of a crashing US Dollar):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

3.
Inflation/stagflation starts taking hold in Japan, China, and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. Bad debts are monetized en-masse (paid off by "printing" large quantities of the local currencies). This is highly inflationary. To forestall hyper-inflation, Asian central banks will be forced to cash in some of their dollar reserves to bail out large debtors (commercial banks, etc.). This will bring an end to the "strong dollar" policies of those governments. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

2.
Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they will no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, and a revulsion for US foreign policies, some oil-producing nations begin switching their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

1.
The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself. The commercial shorts will break and run as people world-wide attempt to take delivery of gold. Some major financial institutions will fail as a result.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have the need or ability to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. The US dollar will become the "laughing stock" of world currencies - akin to some of the weak currencies of the Central American and South American regions. All this occurs just as the first wave of American "baby doomers" are scheduled to retire. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.

Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant world-wide wage inflation (but world-wide commodity prices are now escalating). When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear, as is talk about doing something about the bad debts in Japan, and bad debts rapidly increasing in China. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now increasing. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, it will end in a stalemate - a moral victory for the longs. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming fairly soon.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards in an economic upheaval of epic proportions ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. ! Lacking any unexpected triggers, the countdown will finish during the Fall of 2005.

Cavan Man

(12/31/2003; 19:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114421)

Let the reader understand.

Truer words have not been spoken."The Wild card in all of this for the public, is maintaining some semblance of purchasing power going forward. The Stock Market will not do this, so please do not try. Most serious investors don't only hedge their currency risk, but they hedge the hedge of their currency risk to actually stay ahead of the game(another story). It is becoming apparent that some diversification into the precious metals is needed, just to stay even."

The Coin Guy

Many thanks for your contributions.

Simply Me

(12/31/2003; 19:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114422)

A joyous 2004 to all!

My gold forecast for 2004:
Tremendous early gains followed by a pull back and consolidation, at which time CNBC et al. will declare the gold bull dead. Then, after a lot of weak hands have been relieved of their heavy gold burden, a bigger and better gold bull break out. Gold $600/oz by year end.

Any body know if our sister site's charts are up to their old screw ups again?

Take a look at the current gold lease rates as quoted on the big "k".

Gold lease rates:

1 mo....1.12 (Change +1.1)
2 mo....1.13 (Change +1.09)
3 mo....1.15 (Change +1.09)
6 mo....1.22 (Change +1.10)
1 yr...... 1.46 (Change +1.10)

If these rates are true, then the fuse has been lit on a big golden rocket!
Silver and palladium lease rates took a big jump too. Only platinum rates were down.

A golden new year to all!
Simply

specie-man

(12/31/2003; 19:58:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114423)

Pizz - New Years' Resolutions

Good luck with your resolution #1.
I've NEVER bought a pack (thankfully !), so I don't know what they cost. Isn't it well over $2 ?

Think of it this way -
Every three packs or so and one genuine USA Morgan/Peace *silver* dollar goes up in smoke !

In other words, just think where else you could be putting your money :)

Waverider

(12/31/2003; 20:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114424)

New Year's Haiku for Sir MK

Warriors - eat, drink.
As Golden Eve melts to Dawn
Victory is born.

specie-man

(12/31/2003; 20:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114425)

New Year's Resolutions- part 2

And here is one more thought to help you quit:

Do you want some fat-cat lyin' tobacco executive to go laughing all the way to the bank with YOUR money, or would you rather be stuffing your pockets with silver dollars and gold ?

I can't think of any stronger incentive than that !

Waverider

(12/31/2003; 20:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114426)

To All...

I wish everyone here a healthy and prosperous New Year for 2004. Thank you one and all for your thoughts, dialogue, and contributions - each and every thread partakes in the Golden tapestry engraved upon the forum archive pages. All the best to each and every one of you.

Simply ~ I noticed the lease rates too this morning. Then upon second glance I noticed that the rates are the same across the board which makes me think it may be a computer glitch...I'm not sure but it seemed suspicious. Cheers!

Waverider

R Powell

(12/31/2003; 20:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114427)

Rates: LIBOR - GOFO

Ladies, I too noticed the rate increase but the numbers from the LBMA. do not confirm K's numbers. Below are the one, two, three, six and twelve month numbers from our own link to the LBMA for gold. Who knows which are right? Maybe we just wait a day or two to see. Happy + Safe New Year to All. 0.021% 0.043% 0.066% 0.142% 0.338%

Paper Avalanche

(12/31/2003; 20:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114428)

Happy New Year

My thanks to all posters for a year's worth of education that could not be obtained anywhere else. My special thanks to MK and CPM for this terrific forum and educational resource that has changed the way I view life. Mike, you are making a bigger difference in the world than you could ever imagine. Future historians will write books some day about the financial turmoil that lies ahead of us and there will be many, many references to this forum. We are living and making history during "interesting times."

Take care and have a bountiful 2004.

Paper Avalanche

Goldilox

(12/31/2003; 21:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114429)

Grinches, Glitches, and Glistens

To all the Knights and Fair Ladies-

Heed not the Grinches who would try to steal your gold. They know the weak will submit, but the strong will prevail.

Believe not every datum you encounter, as Glitches occur often. Double check your sources, as they all publish disclaimers to warn of their fallibility.

Seek not every glitter thus presented, as the Bard spake:

"All that Glistens is not Gold!"

Live well and prosper!

(:> Sir Goldilox

Druid

(12/31/2003; 21:30:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114430)

Belgian (12/31/03; 06:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114385)

@Druid"The Gold Trail link (A/FOA) you posted...Could Libya soon become *another* privileged oil-reserve-state, qualifying for Gold-inflow for oil-outflow ?"

Druid: Sir Belgian, you know, this thing "economic" in its earliest and crudest form had more to do with total and complete confiscation then anything else. I took what you perceived was yours. Then we moved on or did we? Now you ask, if ANOTHER world leader sitting on black gold is fortunate enough to be holding the latest winning "lotto" ticket whereby we (USA) might deem him "privileged" enough to engage in some sort of "mutual" exchange.

My favorite Shaman (Econ. Prof.) would always ask; What governs what? Do markets govern politics or do politics govern markets? His answer was as crystal clear as you could get. It depends. At what point in time in history are you analyzing? The way I am reading the tea leaves at this point in time POLITICAL WILL is primary and markets are secondary. Have a wonderful New Years friend.

a nation of one

(12/31/2003; 22:00:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114431)

To R Powell (12/30/03; 15:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114343)

I am of the darkness. (This is not a joke.) When I
encounter convention, it appears to me differently from
the way it appears to people well-versed in markets.

In all areas of my life I tend to do things which other people sometimes think are extremely unusual.

I used to fight this tendency and tried to destroy it.

While I was in the most intense aspect of this attempt, I learned that it is the essence of my nature.

Carefully and unremittingly, therefore, I cultivate it.

As it increases, it emerges as that which I most genuinely believe.

One result has been that I like for my actions to be simple. As to how this effects my interest in gold, I have a number of contracts, which I hold onto while pog goes up. As long as I think it will continue to go up, I will do what is necessary to hold onto them. I don't engage in wise or learned conventional market practices. I am only intending to maximize the effect that pog's rise will have on my wealth, according to what I know and can see. I am a man with a self-generated idea, acting on that idea. So far it is working. I don't strive to understand the complex details of markets, any more than a carpenter tries to see the atoms in a piece of wood. I know my tools. And I know only a few other things: the dollar has been falling; more fiat money is being created; these things spell trouble; I have some dollars that I can put somewhere; I can see somewhere to put them: gold is going up. There is more to it than that, but not much.

I suspect that Karl von Clauswitz's observation may have been generally correct, that, "Given the same amount of intelligence, timidity will do a thousand times more damage than audacity."

Life is war. I have a good military mind. These things I understand. Therefore I do them.

Waverider

(12/31/2003; 22:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114432)

Sir Goldilox

Very clever (((^O^)))

Have you another source for lease rates? I had two sources bookmarked on my other computer that crashed and burned...or Sir Rich...I don't see the link here...TIA! Cheers!

ski

(12/31/2003; 22:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114433)

Gold in 2004 (or other pm's)??

Perhaps a sequel to "Lord of the Rings"???

This time, instead of trying to DESTROY a gold ring, the Hobbits must BUILD a silver ring!

Their quest for some silver will take them:

1. To a host of mom n' pop coin shops ... "WE KNOW OF SILVER AND WE CAN MOST ASSUREDLY ORDER IT FOR YOU ... BUT THE DELIVERY ... THAT, OF COURSE, WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PART." ... But, no silver is to be delivered, no orders filled.

2. To the household of Mr. J.Q. Public ... "I HAVE HEARD OF SILVER OFTEN. THERE CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SINGLE SILVER RING SOMEWHERE ABOUT. UNDER THIS STACK OF BILLS NO DOUBT." ... But he has no silver for the ring.

3. To the halls of the all powerful, military empire of the world ... the U.S. Government ... "FOR MANY, MANY A YEAR, WE HAD WAREHOUSES STACKED TO THE CEILING WITH THE WHITE SHINNY." ... but not a tace of the white precious was to be located among the hammering printing presses.

4. To the greatest silver trading center in the world where millions of ounces of silver are bought and sold each and every day ... the COMEX ... "COME BACK TOMORROW AND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW ... WE HAVE TONS TO SPARE ... BUT FOR SOME REASON, THE CUPBOARD SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BARE TODAY." ... again and again ... over and over ... not enough for a single silver ring!

Druid

(12/31/2003; 23:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114434)

Happy New Year All

I would like to thank each of you caring and giving individuals for your many fine intellectual contributions to this forum. While we may not always agree, I thank each of you for your perspectives because they always expand mine. This last year of "thoughts" has been incredible and continues to be the best reality based reporting concerning all markets, but primarily the gold market, that can be found anywhere, and I do mean anywhere!

From an economic and political point of view each of us knows down deep that we are approaching an inflection point in time where our lives are going to be changed in some form or fashion. I'm an eternal optimist who hope's for the best but am trying like heck to live up to part of BB's credo of "preparing for the worse."

It is with this optimism that I know that some of our country's best and brightest who reside here at the castle will emerge as future leaders and do what's right for all of us as best as humanly possible.

I can honestly see the day where MK's and many others names here at the castle are part of the mainstream business lexicon as they champion the virtues of "honest and sound money." As the battle for the "thoughts" of many unfolds, I will raise my sword and shield to fight for you, as this will be a difficult battle. MK, a splendid job Sir.

I raise my goblet to each of you and wish you all good health and a happy New Year!

Caradoc

(12/31/2003; 23:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114435)

Outlook for 2004

As the US dollar collapses, the year 2004 will begin with rollover of federal debt using shortterm bills:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031231/economy_bills_announcement_1.html

Business as usual in a world where not everyone wishes us well:
http://www.khayma.com/iraqihell/1.wmv

Whatever the validity of such threats, the government takes them seriously enough to have snipers on rooftops for the Times Square New Years Eve celebration and armed forces on the ground and in the sky:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/images/30dec03-nypd-timessquare1.jpg
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/images/1582715_SH.jpg

And even without such threats, the ongoing economic considerations discussed on this forum indicate that holding physical gold is a wise move for 2004 and beyond.

Regards to all,

Caradoc

Simply Me

(12/31/2003; 23:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114436)

@Waverider RE: Lease rates

Just noticed that myself....but, thanks for the heads-up. Another one of the big 'K's chart glitches. Damn!~

The paper/physical break isn't here yet. I've been watching for it since 1999. Oh well...someday.....
I'll keep watching. Till then, there's good solace in 12 year old scotch and spending New Year's Eve with my family.

Warm wishes for all,
Simply
the golden granny

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