USAGOLD Discussion - December 2003

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Belgian
(12/01/2003; 01:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112598)
Re :
@ 21mabry : It is only the dollar that has been declining in exchange rate against most other currencies AND Gold.
More dollars for the same amount of Gold and less other fiat for the same 1 Oz.

All the currencies leave the dollar and go back home. Is there something wrong with the dollar...dollar standard ?
Gold will tell !

@ steady : Sorry mate, but my English is too poor to find the appropiate language, to bring you closer. Others might be more helpful.

Dow (and other) futures are soaring. Nasdaq gained almost 50% this year.
What a wonderful world....!?
steady
(12/01/2003; 04:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112599)
closer
Belgian... well bummer in the summer. im far not close. I do understand enough to know to hold gold and siilver and thats close enough for me.

Black Blade
(12/01/2003; 04:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112600)
Gold Challenges $400 Again!

Close so far but profit taking has kept the POG just shy of the mark. However, futures are solidly above $400 an ounce on a Euro hitting above $1.20 and news that Japan had decided to nationalise the failed Ashikaga Bank. Last year I said that the Japanese would be forced to start nationalizing insolvent banks while Japanese continued to buy gold. I suspect that the Wall Streeters are shaking in their loafers and will do whatever they can at the open in New York. The physical market remains surprisingly strong!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(12/01/2003; 05:19:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112601)
USD Sinks Below 90
The USD is coming back but based on expectations of better US economic data. For those interested:

A book that may be worth reading among many is:

"How to Lie With Statistics" by Darrell Huff, Irving Geis

The BLS are masters of the game. I have seen it first hand in science research where dubious statistics are arranged to bring about a desired outcome. The same happens in economics as well.

- Black Blade
Boilermaker
(12/01/2003; 05:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112602)
Steel Tariffs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20031201/bs_nm/trade_us_steel_dcsnip
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) is expected to lift controversial steel duties within the week, bowing to threats of retaliation from Europe and Asia, industry and congressional sources said.

Ending the tariffs 16 months ahead of schedule to comply with a World Trade Organization (news - web sites) ruling could spark a political backlash against Bush in next year's presidential election in the pivotal steel-producing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

But Bush's advisers concluded that the tariffs were causing more harm than good, and that lifting them would boost Bush's standing with small- and medium-sized Midwestern manufacturers, another important constituency, the sources say

comment
Looks like Greenspan made his point with Bush. Who needs a steel industry anyway. That stuff just rusts in the rain and its such a dirty business. Make war not steel.

Boilermaker
Clink!
(12/01/2003; 07:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112603)
Thar she blows !
$401.6 Highest reported at INO
Jing Zu
(12/01/2003; 07:03:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112604)
There she blow's!
Looks like a powerful surg....

Hold on to your hat.. We are in for the ride of our lives..

As the dollar sinks and GOLD climbs we should always be thinking about what is next..

Hey forum buddies..... Keep the info comming..

Thank you CPM!
Jing Zu
(12/01/2003; 07:05:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112605)
Wow Clink!
We must have been watching and thinking the same thing.. Strange place, huh???

Later
Clink!
(12/01/2003; 07:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112606)
@ Jing Zu
Great minds think alike !
Jing Zu
(12/01/2003; 07:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112607)
@Clink!
That's right!!.....

Have a great "up" day..

Later.......................
Agingfast
(12/01/2003; 07:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112608)
Re: Boilermaker's "Make War Not Steel"
For some thoughts on the strategy of "perpetual war" read today's piece by conservative columnist Charley Reese. (Search the internet under his name.)
Remarx
(12/01/2003; 08:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112609)
Big Brother Currency
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4808392-102271,00.htmlSee the link above. Not sure of copyright issues, so I am just pasting the lead in of the article:

Wal-Mart ready to play Big Brother

John Naughton
Sunday November 30, 2003
The Observer

When the history of our descent into Orwellian surveillance comes to be written, 2003 will stand out. And the names that will be most prominent in that context, oddly enough, will not be David Blunkett and John Ashcroft (pernicious though their initiatives have been), but Wal-Mart, Tesco and Gillette - firms linked by a strange acronym: RFID.
...


admin
(12/01/2003; 09:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112610)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!

Newcomers:

Check out Jon Warner's Afternoon Market Report at the "Daily Market
Report" link top of page. Besides JW's comperhensive reports and seasoned comments, you will find a 24-Hour Live News link on gold, economics and finance out of London.


Remarx
(12/01/2003; 09:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112611)
Big Brother Currency Cont'd
I should have quoted this more pertinent sentence in my last message:

According to engineering trade paper EE Times the European Central Bank is working on a hush-hush project to embed RFID into the fibres of every euro note by 2005 as an anti-counterfeiting device.
mauth
(12/01/2003; 09:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112612)
Why "50 dollars"?
I'm new and doing research; maybe someone can help?
After reading many archived posts and googling 'til my eyes hurt, I still haven't discovered why the gold Eagle is valued (imprinted) at $50/oz. Reading it's history of re-introduction has been enlightening, but nowhere do I see the reasoning behind this particular. Have seen admittedly speculative comments like, "It's at fifty bucks because it'll never get there", and have even read a remark that the value "portends a future agrarian society" (to me, a pretty scary thought...)

Can someone shed light or point me to a web-link?

Thanks for comments.

Marc
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/01/2003; 10:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112613)
Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence. USAGOLD-CPM is your friend in the business.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Goldilox
(12/01/2003; 10:25:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112614)
XAU down
$400 seems to be a magic number for selling gold stocks. The XAU is down, and many gold stocks seem to struggling to stay green today. Lots of investors seem to like the idea of taking their profits here.

I guess it requires building a brand new foundation before new further rises, but the resistance at $400 has been strong, so it may take a lot of adjustment to reestablish it as a new floor.
Goldilox
(12/01/2003; 10:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112615)
What a ride!
$401 to 397 and back again. The XAU and its stocks are doing the same. As they say when you land at Reno airport, this is definitely an E*ticket ride!
Paper Avalanche
(12/01/2003; 10:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112616)
@ Goldilox
Happy holidays!

You may find the HUI to be more indicative of the trend in physical gold than the XAU. The XAU is hampered by the inclusion of many hedgers who are actually hurt by a rising gold price and, as a result, does not correspond as closely with the POG as the HUI.

POG at 401.80 at the moment.

We may have our new floor at $400 after all.

Take care.

PA
steady
(12/01/2003; 10:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112617)
short
guess in the upcoming weeks we will see if there is a short out there sweating as the heat is applied to find out if there really is a short on physical gold. wonder if there realy is as no one really knows and if they did know they most certainly wouldnt say.

gold: are you priced in yet?
slingshot
(12/01/2003; 10:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112618)
Midas Crusade
Gandalf and Omar rode out upon the dry lakebed. They could be seen very clearly as they moved across the tan colored ground. Smaller and smaller the figures became and another flash of light to correct their course. This time the light was brilliant and a rainbow was at its center.
Omar and Gandalf brought their horses to a walk. The two straining their eyes to see anything.
Where had the light come from?

A short distance away something appeared to come forth from the ground slowly. Gandalf and Omar stopped. They watch as this form turned into human shape from nowhere and stood motionless in the days sun.

Again the two riders moved forward. When they come closer they could see it was a person covered against the elements of nature.

Welcome, she said. Please come in to my home so we may talk. Gandalf and Omar dismounted and followed the woman down a stairway cut in the ground.
At the bottom was a door that was open they could see a tunnel entrance. Moving down the corridor the marks of chisel and pick were evident.
Omar could see light ahead and the three exited the corridor into a large cavern that was made into a comfortable home. Well lit by oil lamps their reflections could be seen in the pool of water.
Remarkable isn't it?, she said.

My name is, Leona. You are Gandalf and your friend is Omar.
The two guests sat down on a carved stone bench.

Your army comes to save Hammerton from the Dark Forces. I can see you both have many questions. Time will answer them.

This place was made for me long ago by the towns people of Hammerton. Growing up in a crossroad of culture I haved learned to heal using potions and my methods became strange to some that they called me a witch.
There has to be something else besides that to have them make you this place, said Gandalf.
Leona, took off the wrapping that only showed her face to reveal a young woman.
I like you Gandalf have lived past many of my friends lives. They did not want me to live amoung them, so the made this for me to live in. They come from time to time to seek my medicine and I am free to enter the town.
Omar grasped the handle of his sword.
Fear me not, Omar Khayyam. I will do you no harm, said Leona.
You seek a replacement to make yourself whole. You have been reborn twice, but a third awaits you, Gandalf.
Leona took a small box from a shelf and opened it.

I loan this to you to help free Hammerton and its people.
She handed Gandalf a small crystal ball. Gandalf took it.
Thank you, Leona, it wll be very helpful in our journey, said Gandalf.
You must go now. Your army needs you, said Leona.

Gandalf and Omar left the cavern and when they surfaced from the earth the army of the Goldbugs was out of sight.

They climbed into their saddles as Leona reached the top of the stairs.
In three days the battle will begin. We will talk again, said Leona.
Gandalf and Omar turned and rode in the direction of the advancing army.
Omar looked back over his shoulder only to see the flat land.
The army of the Goldbugs had crossed the Mozul dry lake and rolling hillsides with trees was good to see.
The road along the Epis River would bring them closer to Hammerton.
Gandalf and Omar had slowed to a walking pace when theirs horses began to act strangely. They stopped and were nervious.
Then it happen. The ground began to move and shaked. A rumbled from within came as thunder. The horses whirled and both riders held on tightly to the reigns.
In a few moments it was over. Was it a sign?
Gandalf and Omar quickened their ride to the East.

Slingshot--------------------<>

steady
(12/01/2003; 11:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112619)
microwave vs rifd chips
microvawe beats rfid chips everytime they just cant handle the microwaves. if a bill has a rfid chip in it and that chip is incapacitated by a microwave will that bil still be worth something. or will it be like all fiat script worthless.
a chip doesnt make money thats for sure. Does absence of a chip make it not money?dang they got ya coming and going.
got gold.
microwaves 1 rfid chips 0
first it was microwaveable popcorn now its microwaveable money hahahahha
Goldilox
(12/01/2003; 11:12:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112620)
HUI vs. XAU
@ Paper Avalanche:

Thanks. I only mess with non-hedgers so I will switch. I learn most of what I know about any of this stuff on this forum and the link I find here.

G'lox
Goldilox
(12/01/2003; 11:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112621)
WalMart
CNBC just stated that total estimated retail sales on Friday was $7.5B, with $1.5B at WalMart alone. Twenty percent at just one company. They're moving into the rarified air breathed previously by Microsoft, 1980's IBM, and the pre-breakup AT&T.
Zhisheng
(12/01/2003; 11:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112622)
Up into the Close!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Or close enough for a country boy.

During the last 20 minutes (except for the last 2) the February futures were significantly closer to the spot price than the rest of the day. Looks like the those loading futures shorts on the pressure cooker lid are having their troubles.
Waverider
(12/01/2003; 11:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112623)
Zhisheng...
...YES....at $402.20....
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 12:29:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112624)
COMEX data and "Gloating" <;-)
GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7 CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI 12,536 Days to go = 28

GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86
===
and BTW --- ye of little faith !
check out the Crystal Ball post on the 22nd of Nov. <;-)
===
Gandalf the White (11/22/03; 19:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112244)
OK Sir PA !!! here are my projections ---- <;-)
If I were a betting man....
I would bet that the following occurs next week:
Sunday Asian effort brings Gold over the $400. level
Monday NY COMEX covers it in a PAPER AVALANCHE to $395.
Tuesday back to $399.
Wednesday back to $395.
Thursday EVERYONE has Turkey !
Friday is the day of REST !
THEN the next Monday the ROCKET takes off TO THE MOON !
<;-)
--
TO THE MOON, Alice !

Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 12:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112625)
THANKS SPOT and SPIKE ! Great job today ! <;-)
Roo meat really works !
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/01/2003; 12:36:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112626)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold closes above the "magic" number for the first time after three attempts in the last month. Meanwhile US currency and geopolitical concerns continue as a trade war heats up and Japan begins to nationalize banks. A lot to digest today. Even a shooting death just reported at the UN building in New York of all things.

Jon H. Warner
Paper Avalanche
(12/01/2003; 12:47:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112627)
@ GTW
Sir Gandalf:

Greetings! Congratulations on hitting the mark with your prediction! I think that the next contest should be predicting when POG will hit $500 an ounce - if we have enough time to get everyone's entry in!!!!!!!!! (smile)

$500 an ounce is being discussed as a "lay up" for 2004 among those in the gold community.

Bring it on.

PA
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/01/2003; 12:49:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112628)
Celebrate the Season with Gold!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/Give the gift that keeps giving, year after year!
Zhisheng
(12/01/2003; 12:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 112629)
Good Projections (in both senses of the word)!
@GandalfI'd expound, but Gandalf has me under strict oath of silence, under penalty of terrible retribution.
misetich
(12/01/2003; 13:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112630)
Debt to the Penny - Status Update
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmSnip:

11/28/2003 $6,925,065,499,881.34

10/31/2003 $6,872,675,839,106.67

09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62
................
09/30/2002 $6,228,235,965,597.16

***************
Misetich

Reuters this morning flooded the newswires, with all the "good news" - -

Factory Growth Fastest in 20 Years
Bush Trumpets Economic Recovery in Industrial States
Stocks Leap with Economic Optimism
GLOBAL ECONOMY-U.S. factories lead global manufacturing recovery
.................

Buried in the middle of the 'comics' section - US Treasurer Snow quietly announced on Friday last, the November budget deficit came in at

November: $52.4 billion following the October: $89.4 billion deficit

... Opposite Mr. Snow's announcement, in ANOTHER obscured section, under a Pinocchio's caricuture, there was a little headline saying

US Q3 home prices climb 5.61 pct vs year ago-OFHEO
.................

Sir Ponzi Greenspan announced he was concerned with "deflation" a few months ago and current CPI, deflators are "proving" Mr. Greenspan right

...though one may wonder WHAT IF no adjustments were made to the methodology in which the CPI was calculated

...it wasn't too long ago - say late -70's - Oops when Gold reached the $850.00 level that HOUSING was included in the CPI index and "price inflation was sky rocketing"

..today with the advent of Sir Greenspan's and other at the Feds, creativity, Stocks, Housing can appreciate consirably at absurd levels without creating PRICE INFLATION

...

the GOLD GNOMES smell something rotten

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express






TownCrier
(12/01/2003; 13:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112631)
MK linked John Hathaway in his News & Views page, but we also have permission from John to republish it here.
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Hath-Numeraire.html(excerpt)

"Viewed as a portfolio asset, the supply of gold is not the 2,500 tonnes produced by the mining industry each year plus scrap and other recycled metal.� Instead, one must consider the entire above ground supply, marked to market, and theorize that at any given moment this quantity could be bought or sold in its entirety.� The "market cap" of gold, like the market cap of Microsoft, is subject to daily reappraisal on its investment merits.

"In any investment situation, it is essential to determine whether the seller is right or wrong. To be charitable, it is quite likely that the motivation and mandate for central bank selling transcends the narrow investment exercise of whether a sale at current prices is well advised. As government (and mostly anachronistic) institutions manned by bureaucrats, central banks do not rank particularly high in the realm of investment acumen. It therefore does not require a major ration of courage to suggest that it is better to be a buyer than a seller of gold at this particular juncture in history. The inevitable investment inference is that gold is too cheap and that money, as the modern world has come to understand the term, is over-valued. The same observation would apply to the handmaidens of paper money, i.e. equities and bonds."

"Thoughtful investors wonder what could ever replace the dollar.�� The US is still the world's most important economy, beacon of freedom, and strongest military power.� No other nation or group of nations have or most likely could ever construe a superior currency.� Still, there are the unanswered issues of valuation and capital imbalances.� We are reminded of Cisco and similar equities at the top---over-owned and over-valued.� As with Cisco, the skeptic is powerless to predict the turning point but quite capable of identifying what is unsustainable.� One's inability to imagine an alternative to the current dollar's reserve currency status provides no assurance as to its permanence.

"Some small reasons for concern might include China's recent contemplation of a non-dollar peg for the yuan."

----(see url for full text)-----

R.
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 13:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112632)
A special "THANKS" to Sir Black Blade !
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlUSAGOLD Daily Market Report (12/1/03; 12:36:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 112626)
Page Update!
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.
====
WOWSERS !
As a "pretty fair" technical writer with over forty years of experience, I continue to be impressed with the writings of Sir Black Blade !! Dr. Jon has mastered the art of communications via the written word. It is indeed a pleasure to get ALL the important news of the world happenings in such a GOLDEN REPORT !
THANK you, Sir Black Blade !
Clink!
(12/01/2003; 13:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112633)
Spot's frisky in after hours too
Up to $403.00 now.
Rimh
(12/01/2003; 13:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112634)
Gandalf, you truly are a prophet!
(although I admit, in hindsight, the pattern has been fairly predictable thus far.)

Are we in a new paradigm, now? Will the same trading patterns of TPTB persist, or have we now passed into a new realm of price action where the bulls seem to own the day?

Thoughts, anyone?
misetich
(12/01/2003; 15:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112635)
Stores Don't Bask in Holiday Sales Glory
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3918916Snip:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. retailers launched straight into another round of aggressive holiday advertising on Monday as analysts questioned whether Thanksgiving weekend sales were really as good as they seemed.
.................
Analysts were not impressed with Wal-Mart's Black Friday performance, noting that the 6.3 percent year-over-year sales increase was well below the prior year's 14.4 percent jump. And because Wal-Mart added about 8 percent more selling space in the last year, analysts said sales at stores open at least a year were probably up only slightly.

"Traffic was reportedly heavy, but we believe Wal-Mart missed their sales plan for the day, especially in electronics," Shari Eberts, retail analyst with J.P. Morgan, said in a research note.
....................
**************
Misetich

Newswires led of all people by Drudge screamed "record Wal-Mart thanksgiving sales" yet the devil is in the details

Disappointing news afterall - but who cares - Stock Markets jumped on the exhuberant headlines -

Is the stock market forecasting higher IR? or is it anticipating the Feds will let the good times roll and keep IR at the current levels for months to come?

...What if the anticipated US recovery the SM are discounting will not materialize?

The growl of the big bad bear who has been in hybernation for a few months can be heard by those who listen carefully... he'll be back! Hungrier and meaner than ever!

With bonds at the extreme as stock, and with US deficits skyrocketing It can be anticipated the FLIGHT TO SAFETY will go TO THE ULTIMATE STORAGE OF WEALTH - GOLD

PHYSICAL GOLD...get some

(really didn't mean to shout it)

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express









Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 15:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112636)
Misetich
Kind sir: Drudge is an organ for the republican muddle heads. Together with people like the very small minded man from Cape Girardeau, it/he is a compliant neocon sychophant IMHO.
misetich
(12/01/2003; 15:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112637)
Saudi Arabia withholds pledged economic assistance for Iraq
http://www.albawaba.com/headlines/TheNews.php3?sid=264611⟨=e&dir=businessSnip:

The Saudi government has decided to hold back the one billion dollars in assistance it promised to Iraq until the security situation improves and a sovereign government takes office in the Arab state, reported Saudi and US officials.

According to a Saudi spokesperson, the money "can't go anywhere until there can be actual movement toward development," in the military and political spheres in Iraq, reported LA Times.

The increase of violence in Iraq has made Arab governments wary of participating in the reconstruction effort. For many in the Arab world, the US-led authority's presence in the the country is enough to discourage cooperation. As a result, many Arab leaders have expressed their belief that rapid progress should be made towards the re-establishment of a sovereign government in Iraq.
***************
Misetich

Iraq is turning out to be a quagmiere, a nightmare of sort. Who knows what is going on behind the scenes. The newslink above, may be interpreted as an increase and escalation of hostility between the Arab/Muslim world and the US led coalition of the willing.

The economic costs are increasing as the anticipated oil revenues have thus far been disappointing.

The US taxpayer is picking up the tab - and who REALLY knows were all the funds are going to?

It wasn't long ago we learned all the IMF funding to Russia was being hijacked ending up in Swiss bank accounts. Is the same thing happening in Iraq?

The Saudis wording "...there can be actual movement toward development," seems to imply the Saudis are disappointed with actual progress todate and are reluctant to participate in funding the US led military actions.

If funds are being diverted things will be getting much, much worse for the US taxpayers and the ballooning deficit, and ultimately the US economy and US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express









Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 15:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112638)
Q4 US Economic Statistics
Please keep in mind a few facts:

1. This time of year is always busy. In a retail, consumer oriented society, barring a real old fashioned recession (the kind most of us grew up with), the fourth quarter will "hum". In about 30 days or less, the speedometer backs way off whether in good times or bad.

2. US retailers are marketing predominately foreign made products to the US consumer.

3. I work in US manufacturing. Neither the company I work for or my customers are making any significant coin. In many instances, we're working for pure cash flow at variable cost.

If conusmer debt and retail development are relevant benchmarks then yes, I suppose we are humming along albeit furtheralong the "road to serfdom".


Top and bottom line growth do not and cannot possibly justify broad market equity valuations.
Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 16:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112639)
Misetich....
At the risk of stating the obvious....whether a Democratic administration or Republican....the "press" does not (today) fulfill its responsibility to the citizenry to function as a watchdog or journalisitc ombudsman for the public weal. Each party has significant sway with media outlets; defacto propagandists. You must think for yourself and so must I. Kind regards...CM
R Powell
(12/01/2003; 16:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112640)
P. A. // Gandalf
$500 gold? I'll guess....

Before the snow melts in New England.

Gandy: Good call! Now, how much higher before the dreaded downturn? Funny that 90 is just a number on the dollar index and 400 is just a number like 399 or 401.

Can POG keep swimming above 400 without silver erupting? Silver, sugar, and coffee may be just fashionably late to the CRB party. ?
Boilermaker
(12/01/2003; 16:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112641)
Bad News/Good News
It seems that we are seeing the same news coming from Iraq as we saw from Viet Nam. 54 Iraqi guerillas killed yesterday in a firefight in Samarra. I remember the Viet Cong body counts that were supposed to keep us convinced that the US was winning. Same tactics, new war. God help the troops we have there. Cannon fodder for a misguided adventure.

The good news is that gold bugs can celebrate the convincing overthrow of the stubborn $400 level. More accurately the sinking of the US$ below .0025 gold. I have mixed emotions about my winnings but will take them.

Boilermaker
Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 16:43:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112642)
Hi R Powell
My apologies for USAG112639; Chris if of course the exception.
Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 16:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112643)
"Gold Derivative Banking Crisis"
When, where, how(e)?
Cavan Man
(12/01/2003; 16:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112644)
Looming hedgebook disasters.....
Are they all in the history books? Is it too quiet?
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 16:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112645)
Look at the GREAT job that the ESF did today !!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0They could not let it be below 90.0 !!!
I am looking now to see how long they can hold their breath.
<;-)
The Invisible Hand
(12/01/2003; 17:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112646)
Iraq vs US of A: 1- 0
Boilermaker says:
God help the troops we have there. Cannon fodder for a misguided adventure.

I say:
If God exists, may He then help the Iraqis.
I really don't know what to answer to the second sentence. But perhaps Cavan Man has the solution when he says "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis - When, where, how(e)?"

Derivative banking Crisis = US Govt is broke = no more money for the war department.
But how will the soldiers then get home? Perhaps they won't want to go back to the US desert and start a productive life in Iraq.
misetich
(12/01/2003; 18:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112647)
Metal Heads Up
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

From a shorter term perspective, gold is keeping score regarding, and is reflective of, one of the greatest credit bubble environments ever experienced both domestically and in good measure internationally
.....................
The bottom line is that we are smack in the midst of one of the greatest global reflation campaigns of our lifetime. This campaign directly involves money creation (credit creation), deficit spending, and currency manipulation.
...........................
From our point of view, gold is clearly responding to and anticipating the potential for large magnitude shifts in the global monetary and economic landscape as we move further into the 21st century. Potential global economic change of such depth that it may occur only once a century.
.....................
just where is all of this money going to go?
.....................
Intuitively, we already know where this money has gone. It has gone into financial assets, real estate and consumption stateside
..................
"The danger, of course, lies in the fact that 41% of total US government debt is in the hands of foreign creditors as of the September month end Treasury data. Never in US history have we found ourselves in a situation such as we now face vis-�-vis our borrowing of the bulk of the world's savings.
**************
Misetich

A MUST read from the fine people at Contraryinvestor

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/01/2003; 18:41:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112648)
Law firm sues Janus, Putnam funds
http://www.msnbc.com/news/1000051.asp?0si=-Snip:

NEW YORK, Dec. 1 � The law firm that won a $10.1 billion verdict against cigarette maker Philip Morris is suing Janus, Putnam Investments and other mutual funds for failing to protect the valuation of the assets under their management.
.......................
*************
Misetich

A never ever ending nightmare over at Janus and Putnam. and its only the tip of the iceberg as more lawsuits, classaction lawsuits will follow.

More redemptions to follow!

This mutual fund scandal, from market timing to "fair value pricing" has created an air of nervousness and uncertainty for most of mutual funds as porfolio managers need to maintain liquidity for potential redemptions.

It couls start a PAPER AVALANCHE

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/01/2003; 19:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112649)
INVESCO May Be in the Crosshairs-
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2003/nf2003121_0588_db035.htmSnip:

Another shoe may be about to drop in the mutual-fund scandal. BusinessWeek Online has learned that New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission plan to file civil charges later this week against INVESCO Funds, a unit of Amvescap (AVZ ). The complaint is expected to center on INVESCO's dealings with Canary Capital Partners, the New York-based hedge fund whose alleged market-timing trading activities initially sparked Spitzer's growing investigation into several other mutual funds.
.................
*****************
Misetich

Scandal upon scandal it gets worse each passing hour - the "identified culprits" are a few thus far comparatively with the thousands that have defrauded investors

SEC has been asleep at the switch - The repurcassions have thus far been small as investors have not revolted - yet the possibility of a real rout exists if the SM were to suddenly head south in a big way....

...it won't happen, if the PPT can help it - Last evening Nikkei action was exemplary of manipulated markets, rising in the face of public money used to bailout a bank, hardly a positive action

...though each and every time these interventionists act/react and interfere with free markets the more damage is being created, destroying the integrity and rocking the foundations,

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express









eccentricventures
(12/01/2003; 21:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112650)
testing, long time lurker makes first post....
I have been reading at this site for some time. With gold finally over $400 I thought I would start posting/ asking advice/ questions. This is my favorite message board on the net.
Liberty Head
(12/01/2003; 21:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112651)
Here Here! I Raise My Glass

A kindly toast is offered, in honor of our gracious hosts, in recognition of today's milestone close above $400, and to all who read these words.

Best Wishes To All
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 21:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112652)
WELCOME Sir Eccentricventures !!
eccentricventures (12/1/03; 21:13:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112650)
---
With a "handle" like that --- PLEASE keep the questions "simple" !
SHOOT !
<;-)
Druid
(12/01/2003; 22:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112654)
Central Bank fills coffers
http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41436Snippet:

MOSCOW - Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves amounted to $65.4bn as of November 14, 2003, against $64.7bn a week earlier, the Central Bank reported Thursday. This is an all time record. The previous record of $64.9bn was set on June 20, 2003, and it was repeated on July 4 and October 31.

Speaking at a session of the State Duma earlier this week, Senior Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Oleg Vyugin said the gold and foreign currency reserves were expected to be $65bn to $66bn by the end of the year. According to him, the Central Bank revised upwards its forecast for the reserves. Given the current situation on the market, these projections will most likely have to be corrected. Of course, if the Central Bank doesn't sell off US dollars at year-end in order to tie up excessive ruble liquidity.


Druid: Oligarchs on the proverbial hot seat; Russian Central Banker sounding rather optimistic; Euro gaining a lot of ground as of late; This POLITICAL WILL action sure does wreak havoc on markets of all kinds.
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 22:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112655)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
YES --- That is the call to "CONTEST" !!!The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)

YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested a December �03 COMEX Contract POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a German "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by a short remark on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, --- AND WHY !

The CONTEST starts NOW !!
<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on SUNDAY, October 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY !!!

===
Just is time for that last minute Xmas Shopping need !!
"COME ON IN" ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! The TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 22:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112656)
ROFL --- <;-)
OK --- I know --- Denver is now on MST !!! (not daylight saving time) Error #1, Wiz !!
<;-(
slingshot
(12/01/2003; 22:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112657)
Gold was like an Earthquake today
The seismic reading on the scale was moderate but the tremors persist. They are the precursors of a greater event.
Our seismologist, Gandalf the White, Sir Black Blade and Sir M.K. and many others had gathered the scientific information. Processed it along with historical data to give a probability of occurance that now has become fact.

Job Well Done!
Slingshot-------------<>
Gandalf the White
(12/01/2003; 23:07:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112658)
******** $409.8 ********
Sir M.K. -- you ask the hardest questions !!
Will the SPOT POG reach $500. in year 2004 ?
OK COURSE IT WILL !!! BUT, WHY ?, you ask !
Because NOTHING is going to change -- More terrorism, more ballon inflating and popping, the US$ will lose ANOTHER 18 basis points, and then, in 2004 after "THE Election", the FED will let the INFLATION monster out of the cage !
--
OOPS -- is this supposted to be SCARY ?
NAW, that was the last contest at Halloween !
<;-)
Liberty Head
(12/01/2003; 23:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112659)
****$405.00****

I see $500 Gold happening before Nov. 2, 2004.

One major precipitating event could easily send gold to $500 and monsoons are in the forecast.

Best Wishes
slingshot
(12/01/2003; 23:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112660)
**********$407.2*********
We will see the POG at $500 in 2004.

The trade deficeit and government spending is way out of control. An extravagent lifestyle that feeds the economic engine of the world can not be sustained on a mountain of debt. The foreign investor awaits the rise in interest rates and will reinvest in those countries who will give him a better return, while the rise in interest rates will kill the economic engine already taped out in debt. As companies try to put lipstick on the pig, capitol for growth will lessen and layoffs will continue putting more pressure on the economy. The dollar will fall to try and retain some foreign investment but it will be too late as the herd mentality switches to other currencies.
The passing of NAFTA and GATT has reduced our industrial and productive base to the point that we have nothing more to offer the world but out military might. Which I may add depends on the manufacture of parts for our weapon systems by foreign governments.
Combine this with the pecentage of graduates in the USA with diplomas as compared to foreign emerging industrial nations, and we may find ourselves in an agritorial state of the late 1800's
Yet for those who play the stock market with P/E's at 39 the will seek protection in Gold and the two edge sword of the falling dollar and supply and demand will CUT DEEP.

Slingshot--------------<>
TEX
(12/01/2003; 23:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 112661)
Seemed like a good idea at the time?
Just about the time I started investing in Gold, I seem to remember the British Government selling off a sizeable chunk of its physical.

With the recent surge in the price......is anyone over there asking the question of "why?"

I'd be pretty pissed off if I were a British citizen.

Oh well, as they say........"It seemed to be a good idea at the time"

Adios
Goldilox
(12/02/2003; 00:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112662)
Contest
****414.10*****

Congrats one and all on a fine day. I had to drop offline to check out of my hotel and move into my apartment about Noon, so I missed the juicy finish. By the way, while moving in, I noticed a wireless LAN on my Airport (yes, I use a Macintosh) net list. It seems I moved into a "Hot Spot" originating in a mobile home park across the cemetary from me. It may be the only cemetary with wireless coverage in existence. I don't need a cable modem or a router, as my wireless card picks them up fine. Just $40/Mo for the service. By not buying all the other gear, I saved about half an ounce! OK, I'm stalling, sooooo . . .

***************************

Will gold reach $500/oz in 2004, and why?

The answer to this question lies in the information age itself. Countless years of chicanery and deceit have passed while TPTB hoarded and manipulated entire societies out of their gold and silver reserves. When it became more difficult to wangle the masses out of their precious goods, gold was debased and defiled like a social outcast. During that time the price was driven so constanly low that only a fool would consider buying it, and only a genius would know to save it.

Well, history rhymes once again, as the geniuses who have tended the eternal golden flame passed along the secret of the noble metal, as well. Unlike ages past, the "Information Age" bestowed upon the keepers the power to proclaim their secret from the moutaintops to all men rich and poor. Their new messaging technology granted the capability of storing and repeating the message over and over for the slow to comprehend.

Along came a bretheren of believers who linked arms (and NICs) to commune in the castle of Sir MK, and united many other castles in honoring the "old ways". As the currencies each continued to debase each other in turn (like the tissues from which they were fashioned), respect for them fell to cesspool depths. Great fortunes changed hands and new homage was born for the golden relic of antiquity. Finally, as the beauty and rarity of the noble gold became apparent to all, a great cry went out across the planet. "Get gold for your Assets. Use the tissue for your A**!"

- Sir Goldilox
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 00:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112663)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contest UPDATE !
YES, Lady Waverider --- there is ANOTHER contest ! <;-)POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 00:20 (Denver time) TUESDAY 12/2/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)
---
See the RULES on yesterday's page !
<;-)


Smeagol
(12/02/2003; 00:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112664)
*****404.1*****
Back to the Future of It!sss...we found the Wizard's time machine, and so we possts our Guess by October 7, 2003. (grin)

Smeagol is optimisstic and thinks that the price of It has great chances, O yess, to go passt $500 in Year 2004, ssimply because It iss worth more than that much right now. Nowadays, mosst still lissten to tricksy Saruman spell-voices and pay little attention to world-matters, but those voices will soon be silenced by the thunder of It's ascent.

... sss... no, we didn't figure out how to go forward. Well, we did, but we won't tell, it'd ruin the Contesst!

S.
specie-man
(12/02/2003; 00:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112665)
Hey, how come we never have a SILVER price guessing contest !?
***** $5.64 *****
specie-man
(12/02/2003; 01:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112666)
Contest Deadline
Too late.

Gandalf the White wrote:
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on SUNDAY, October 7th, 2003.

specie-man
(12/02/2003; 01:22:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112667)
Japan & Asia effects
Lately I've noticed that the Nikkei stock average has been very volatile, but even more interesting, the price of gold in NY seems to go up strongly on days following a big rise in the Nikkei (no I haven't made a chart).

I still believe that before gold really takes off (as if it hasn't already !), that stronger inflation is needed in the US. And before that can happen, Japan (and ASIA) will have to get tired of inflation in their own countries (and thus stop buying dollars and dumping their own currencies).

In other words, they will eventually be forced to export their inflation to the US.

The fact that Japan is going to bail out some major banks is highly inflationary (since the bad debts will likely be monetized). And they've been printing Yen at an accelerated pace for a while now (and buying a lot of dollars with it). But now it seems that some of the excess Yen that is floating around is finding it's way into the stock market, failed banks, and into other things besides the US dollar.
DummyANI
(12/02/2003; 01:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112668)
Contest
****469.00***** Jim Sinclair is predicting that bolting will be happening in the near futures. I think the gold-bolting will be starting at today.
COMEX shorts never try to short-cover in their positions. So that COMEX-gold cannot stop at $430/oz or $450/oz level because of their no-strategies.
According to my astronomical calculations, Dec. 09, Dec. 15 and Dec. 30 are changing dates of gold-price.
***************************

Will gold reach $500/oz in 2004, and why?
Yes, because during nearly one year, gold price is suppressed artificially by the Gold Common-Cartel, very enormous energy of buying gold is accumulated in the market.
If fund-managers are beginning to buy gold at over $400/oz level, they expect at least 30 percent returns. So that I think gold will reach $500/oz until first quarter of 2004.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
The Invisible Hand
(12/02/2003; 02:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112669)
*** $8,752.0 ****
The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
==
Will we (or will we not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500 in 2004? Rather difficult that we see it if now we see 17 times that amount. Please tell me if you think this part of my prediction is wrong because then I'll sell all my gold upon the expiry of the contest.
DummyANI
(12/02/2003; 04:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112670)
Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:
Date: Net short change COMEX-Gold CRB �cWTI
Oct. 20 62,631�c plus2224�c...372.2 ..243.31 ..30.68
Oct. 21 67,474�c plus4843�c...374.4 ..243.46 ..30.35
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311�c...382.0 ..244.79 ..30.18 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625�c...386.8 ..245.33 ..29.92 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993�c...385.0 ..248.69 ..30.30
Oct. 27 50,838�c plus4293�c...389.2 ..249.34 ..30.16
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542�c...388.2 ..249.34 ..29.92
Oct. 29 51,053�c plus1757�c...383.4 ..249.07 ..29.56
Oct. 30 53,108�c plus2055�c...387.0 ..249.76 ..28.91
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934�c...384.4 ..247.73 ..28.47
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319�c...377.1 ..248.33 ..29.11
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649�c...380.0 ..246.57 ..28.75 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651�c plus0445�c...382.7 ..250.13 ..30.30
Nov. 07 51,679�c plus2028�c...380.7 ..248.64 ..30.26
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338�c...383.4 ..251.03 ..30.85
Nov. 11 51,722�c plus0381�c...386.7 ..250.71 ..30.88
Nov. 12 52,927�c plus1205�c...388.2 ..251.60 ..31.15
Nov. 13 61,349�c plus8422�c...395.0 ..253.13 ..31.33
Nov. 14 62,053�c plus0704�c...394.3 ..255.00 ..31.90
Nov. 17 61,798. minus0255�c...398.0 ..257.29 ..32.37
Nov. 18 71,057�c plus9259�c...391.5 ..253.53 ..31.73
Nov. 19 71,118�c plus0061�c...397.6 ..255.37 ..33.28
Nov. 20 72,385�c plus1267�c...394.9 ..251.92 ..32.92
Nov. 21 72,503�c plus0118�c...393.7 ..250.98 ..32.86
Nov. 24 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....396.0 ..249.81 ..31.61
Nov. 25 71,253. minus1250�c...391.5 ..246.15 ..29.74
Nov. 26 69,826. minus1427�c...391.1 ..245.67 ..29.77
Nov. 27 66,932. minus2894�c...396.8 ..248.44 ..30.41
Nov. 28 66,049. minus0883�c...396.8 ..248.44 ..30.41
Dec. 01 63,734. minus2315�c...396.8 ..248.44 ..30.41<---wrong-short
Dec. 02 63,256. minus0478�c...402.7 ..254.37 ..29.95


D-ANI: Mitsui is losing his short-positions. I think it is foundamentary wrong to take short-positions in a secular bull-market.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen
Paper Avalanche
(12/02/2003; 05:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112671)
ETF available on LSE a week from today...
This is the article:

"Gold Bullion Securities: Sees LSE Listing 9 Dec >GOL.AU
Edited Press Release

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Gold Bullion Securities has Tuesday announced that it has published a prospectus for the admission to the London Stock Exchange of Gold Bullion Securities on 9 December 2003.

ADVERTISEMENT


The company said the listing of Gold Bullion Securities will provide investors with the opportunity to effectively buy and sell gold on the London Stock Exchange.

The listing of these securities is an initiative of the World Gold Council.

Simon Village, joint managing director of Gold Bullion Securities Ltd, said: "Providing all types of investors with an exposure to gold will lead to the establishment of an exciting 'new' asset which gives retail and institutional investors the chance to benefit from the exposure to gold in their benchmark portfolios."

End of article.

PA
eccentricventures
(12/02/2003; 05:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112672)
rising gold and "economic recovery"
I wonder if a gold bull market is compatable with the rising stock market and the dollar (bear market) rallies. If the PTB keep trumpeting the "recovery" and people throw more money at the dow, will this hurt the POG at least in the short term? Gold does seem to be doing well enough despite all wonderful recovery talk I hear everyday on the news. Is the POG still being managed, or is it free? Any thoughts anyone? I have learned what little I know about economics and gold from lurking on the forums. Be patient with me and tolerate my ignorance as I "walk the golden trail"....
Boilermaker
(12/02/2003; 06:16:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112673)
2004 Medical Blues
Come New Years Day 2004 my family's medical insurance policy payments go from $350/mo to $650/mo. This is my wife's State Teachers Retirement policy with spouse (me) and two kids in school. I suppose a lot of folks will be seeing big hikes but I'm sure that won't derail the rebounding economy if we can remortgage the house and possibly indenture the kids.

Another thought, I want to express my heartfelt thanks to the fine folks who have been offering gold at firesale prices these past few years. I would advise them, however, that this is not a good business model for an enterprise wishing to prosper.

Cheers to all
Boilermaker
Waverider
(12/02/2003; 06:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112674)
Why Gold and Stocks Are Rising Together
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2003/nf2003122_8637_db014.htm"Although they usually move in opposite directions, this time around an odd confluence of factors is sparking both higher simultaneously..."

Waverider: Eccentricventures ~ this timely article (with a Cabal slant) offers one perspective for your question this morning ...welcome to the forum!
Socrates964
(12/02/2003; 07:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112675)
eccentricventures
The day I see a new Fed chairman and Treasury Secretary making a serious attempt to clean up the US financial system is the day I sell all my gold. Since I see no likelihood of this happening until things become absolutely dire, I will continue to hold and gold will simply keep rising on a huge tide of fiat paper that will also inflate the stock market.

Obviously, the general public will never buy gold for the right reasons, but may well buy it for the wrong reasons. How about the following?

E.g.

-Why be negative on gold when there is no gold bull market, merely a dollar bear market. Who would have said that there was a tech bull in dollars but not in another currency. We actually have a bear market in gold in Rand. Why is gold a problem? It's only a problem in S Africa. The gold bull market hasn't even started yet, so you and you and you and you and you (etc.) can actually get in on the ground floor.

-The fact that gold is rising with a rising stock market is a sign of a healthy economy. Consumers are feeling wealthy and choosing to save their excess cash.. The US needs savings and if people choose to save some of it in gold rather than stocks, what's the harm in a bit of portfolio diversification. We've had too much Keynesian anti-savings policy from previous governments, and I think we should salute Dubya's promotion of prudent savings behaviour.

-A rising gold price is purely a function of supply and demand in the mining sector. You paid a premium for new economy dot-coms because they could grow earnings faster than the old economy stocks. Now jewelry demand due to the wealth effect is expanding margins in the gold sector, so these are the stocks that should command higher PEs. They're just like any other business, only they're growing earnings faster.

-A rising gold price strengthens the US economy by increasing the dollar value of its gold reserves. How can a rising gold price be bad for the US if it increases the national wealth?

How's my sales pitch?
Paper Avalanche
(12/02/2003; 07:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112676)
@ Waverider
Greetings Sir Rider of the Waves!

I was giving the whole hyperinflation issue some thought over the weekend and came to the conclusion that the inevitable outcome will be universal healthcare. In two or three years (after comparable annual rises in the cost of health "insurance"), the baby boom generation will clammor for relief from the incessant cost increases. To that end, the coming inlfation plays into the hands of the statists.

Applied Digital Solutions should have the implantable chips ready by then so that everyone can be properly tagged.

You may want to check out Medical Savings Accounts as an alternative to traditional health insurance (although you may have to set up your own small business to particiapte in the MSA program).

Take care.

PA
Casey
(12/02/2003; 07:54:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112677)
***** $403.2 *****
I do think the POG will reach $500 in 2004. Due in large part to the continued deterioration of the government fiat system and reckless expansion of the government consuming fiat just as quick as it prints it. Sure, add little hard savings by imperial slaves, demands for more entitlements and the mass of aging slaves (with fewer slaves to support them). Like the Titanic the economy is, it floods slower at first, then faster and faster. The rise in POG to $500 and beyond will also become faster and faster as the new technicolor government paper play money is seen for what it is.
Zhisheng
(12/02/2003; 08:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112678)
***$430.0***
Gold will reach $500 because, among other reasons, the dollar will lose at least %25 of its value over by the end of 2004. The water flowing over the earth dam is cutting into the structure more by the minute.
The Hoople
(12/02/2003; 08:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112679)
Boilermaker
My wife took a leave of abscence from her high school teaching job. We decided to just pay the health insurance premiums until she returned but were shocked to discover they were $1,700.00 a month. Little wonder school and state budgets are red inking big time. We also have skyrocketing property taxes, water rates and a raft of other utilities leaping higher. This has to translate to less consumer spending. The state sales tax collections keep falling which belies the rosy economic reporting being given. My economic forecast is for dire straits for most all non-gold owners.

BTW, did anybody see last night on the evening news the story about the missile attack on the convoy in Iraq delivering new Iraqi dinar currency? The chilling comment Brokaw gave was, "the shipment of dinars was crucial, as the old dinars WILL EXPIRE WORTHLESS Dec. 1st." Think dollars....I think I'll give CPM another call.

Paper Avalanche
(12/02/2003; 08:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112680)
A thought.........
It is mathematically impossible for a fiat currency to be both a transaction currency and a store of wealth.

What we are witnessing is the realization of this fact by the rest of the world.

PA
steady
(12/02/2003; 09:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112681)
oh yea i almost forgot
ZUBAZOOM > ZUBAZOOM > ZUBAZOOOOOOOOM
Rustee
(12/02/2003; 09:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112682)
$850.Gold
Could someone explain the cause of the break in value of gold when it hit $850 and the subsequent slide to $252/oz? What will be the event to break this rally in gold (whenever that may occur). Based on all that I can read the structural problems with the Dollar indicates a huge upside in the value of gold BUT nothing goes up forever.
Thanks Rustee
Agingfast
(12/02/2003; 09:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112683)
Dollar Index
89.72. Hmmmm.
Paper Avalanche
(12/02/2003; 09:23:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112684)
@ Rustee
Free Gold does go up forever in nominal terms relative to fiat currencies. It may be beneficial to take a walk down the gold trail for a while to get a complete understanding of this concept. It took me many trips down the trail to do so.

PA
J-Bullion
(12/02/2003; 09:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112685)
****428.70***
I don't think we will see gold at $500 in 2004. We will see gold at $500 ounce in 2003. All the technical charts are screaming for an explosion about right now.

Or you could be optomistic, as my friend commented this morning. "Trying to stop gold may be like trying to plug up a dike with 18 holes in it with your fingers. What you don't understand is that the govt. is smarter than you....they will just print up more fingers!" With comments like that we will see $500 gold this year!
admin
(12/02/2003; 09:54:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112686)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 10:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112687)
THANKS ?, Sir Smeagol ! You found ERROR #2 !!! <;-)
REVISED AND CORRECTED POG Contest "Rules" !!!THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY !!!

===
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 10:31:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112688)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Contest UPDATE !
YES !, Lady Waverider -- There is a Santaclaus ! <;-)POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 10:30 (Denver time) TUESDAY 12/2/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)
---
Please use the REVISED and CORRECTED "Rules" !
<;-)
Knallgold
(12/02/2003; 10:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112689)
Paper POG: "The currency managment tool"--FOA
What does that mean?Paper POG is being managed with the intent to make the currency ($)look good,better than Gold,its competitor.

Now there is a new kid on the block,having stated its pro Gold stance.This new competitor (euro) forced the old guy to keep up or lose its reserve status.Now that Goldprices are rising and the Yellow even starts to look fashionable again-the $ had no other choice than show that it hasn't the slightest problem with a rising POG either.

Ever wondered about this too perfect Goldchart (5 year on Kitco),just a *healthy* and gradual rise?Accompanied by messages on the Forums from some new and/or "innocent" posters "everything is fine,no derivative banking crisis,Goldshares showing traditional leverage ".And the paperbugs have to be (made) excited from time to time-feed them a 10$ rise occasionally!.Of course,a 10$ drop is then viewed as a healthy correction,"nothing is going straight up".Frankly,a 10$ move is meaningless outside the derivative world,we know Gold should be in the thousands,and could be easily in a second.No,I never bought the overbought argument in a market short 15000t and being suppressed since decades.

POG is slowly being managed/manipulated upwards! (btw,I'm reading Sinclair with increasing suspicion).So is the $ gradually weakening.Surely,it needs some kind of agreement like taking the 15000t shorts off the books of exposed (US?)banks-in exchange for what??

And,to cover all bases'similar notorious messages about "when POG explodes,TEOTWAWKI,confiscation etc" spring up like a clockwork.This is not schizophren if you think about it.

Yes,(paper)Gold is still being manipulated'still in the interest of the currency.The interest being now just buying a bit more time.

Clink!
(12/02/2003; 11:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112690)
$160,000 per oz of gold
This the title of an article from Alex Wallenwein going the rounds at the moment. Basically dividing the total number of dollars by the US gold reserves.

Snip :-

If you take that ridiculous sixteen trillion dollar figure and divide the supposedly existing 256 million ounces of gold in the US national gold stock by it, (there are approximately 32,000 ounces in a tonne; multiply by 8,000 tonnes, and you get 256 million ounces) , you discover that one dollar would buy exactly 0.000016 ounces of gold. Looked at the other way, you get a mind-boggling, shockingly ridiculous, nose-bleeding dollar-gold exchange price of $160,000 per ounce

Clink! My mind was boggled that someone should write an article with such an elementary arithmetic mistake in it !

C!

PS. (This should be printed upside down) The real answer is $62,500.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 11:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 112691)
OOPS !! There goes the US 30 Year Bond AGAIN !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GI wonder why anyone would want to sell that 30 Year Bond ?
Could they (Giants) be telling the Sheeple something ?
NAW !
<;-)
The Hoople
(12/02/2003; 11:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112692)
**** $417.8 ****
Using "almighty" in terms of the dollar seems to be a huge misnomer. Now almighty gold- that's more like it. When I look collectively at the ecomomic mess we're in I think $500 is missing a zero or two. So $500 by 2004? Maybe next week? By tomorrow? We're one derivative neutron bomb away. Yes, logic would say a paltry 25% rise next year is feasable.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 11:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112693)
GOLD P&F chart's latest addition ! A GREEN "C" !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GPlease note the new GREEN "C" atop the ROCKET on the GOLD P&F chart ! (THAT must stand for "Christmas" present!)
The TRADITIONAL chart has now reached its interium goal of $404. and is ready to BLASTOFF to the $430. area as projected by the prior TRIANGLE formation.
Can anyone else read this chart and correct me, if I have errored ?
Where is Sir Soc when you need him ?
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/02/2003; 11:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112694)
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Zhisheng
(12/02/2003; 11:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112695)
Up into the close.
http://www.lindforex.com/FinanceChart.htm?symbol=EUR/USDThe dollar was down relative to the Euro nearly 1%.

Gold did not keep up today, but at least bettered yesterday's gain.

Apropos Paper Avalanche's A THOUGHT: it is psychologically impossible for a fiat currency to be a (non-depreciating) store of wealth.
But Gresham's Law give's fiat a chance to be a transaction currency (until the bitter end anyway).

Gandalf: why would the Giants want to tell the Sheeple something? Maybe A Giant or Two...but more than that I have my doubts, unless to misdirect them. Could be interest rates will go up as the dollar goes down.

Sometimes, like today, it seems that the shorts are capping the price of gold out of habit rather than conviction.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 11:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112696)
YES !, Sir Zhisheng !!! You are indeed correct ! <;-)
Gandalf: why would the Giants want to tell the Sheeple something? Maybe A Giant or Two...but more than that I have my doubts, unless to misdirect them. Could be interest rates will go up as the dollar goes down.
===
The GIANTS are only "INADVERTENTLY" telling the Sheeple, and only the ones that can see through the trees (or read this USAGOLD Fourm) will get the message !
Like Ari says, "GET the PHYSICAL Gold, while you can !"
<;-)
specie-man
(12/02/2003; 11:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112697)
18 Fingers
J-Bullion wrote:
>>>
Or you could be optimistic, as my friend commented this morning. "Trying to stop gold may be like trying to plug up a dike with 18 holes in it with your fingers. What you don't understand is that the govt. is smarter than you....they will just print up more fingers!"
<<<

That is both sad and funny at the same time.
Of course, the dam is made out of paper. And where is the government going to get the paper to print those "fingers" ?


specie-man
(12/02/2003; 12:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112698)
$850.Gold
Rustee,

Shortly after gold went over $800, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates significantly. That lured money away from gold and into interest-bearing paper investments. Higher interest rates also tempted gold miners to sell future production. This increased the supply of gold on the market (although a lot of it was "paper" gold). Togerther, those factors reversed the rising tide of gold.

Things are different now. Gold miners are still trying to get out from under the forward sales thay made previously. But more importantly, with the current sad state of consumer, corporate, and government finances (debt), there is no possible way that the economy could tolerate even moderatley higher interest rates at this time (or at any time in the near foreseeable future). Imagine what would happen to all those marginal (100+%) mortgages out there if rates rose. I imagine mass defaults/bankruptcies.

The employment picture (and wages) will have to improve markedly before there is any possible interest rate hike.

In the meantime, the price of gold is going to be largely determined by the acts of foreigners, not by Americans.

DryWasher
(12/02/2003; 12:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112699)
***** $397.2 *****

Why such a low guess? Well there is a fair chance that it could get hammered down again for a time, and besides, I don't like being in crowds.

Will spot reach $500 in 2004? I am going to guess NO, and it is really only a guess because almost anything is possible. By saying NO I am betting that the The Powers That Be will use every trick in the book to continue the game a bit longer.

In any case I am not going to loose any sleep over it because both the FUNDAMENTALS and HISTORY tell me that in time GOLD will win out over paper.
Socrates964
(12/02/2003; 12:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112700)
Sir Gandalf
Sorry, out feasting with the other members of the Symposium.

You can do P&F in 2 ways:

-Look for all kinds of patterns: too complex for me.

-Just regard it as a rough and ready tool for calculating price objectives.

On the latter point, nothing has changed. We are still on course for 428 = 368 + (5 boxes x 3 x$4). I haven't been posting because there was nothing to add to my previous analysis. Nor did I ever regard 404 as having any major significance. The key level was 381 and as soon as we broke that, we got the signal for a major bull market.

Now that 400 seems to have fallen, the Cartel will doubtless fall back to 415 and start spinning lots of ridiculous stories about how gold is at the end of its run, since this was the 1996 high. Like all the other feeble efforts to call the top all the way from 255, this will be revealed as so much BS.

If I had to go on TV and make a prognosis, I'd say that I expect gold to make a near-term high in the low 430s, pull back to 405-10 and then build up another trading range that will set it up for an assault on 500.




Socrates964
(12/02/2003; 12:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112701)
Cont.
As for the timing of the move from 400 to 500 - I'm completely clueless.

Nearly a year ago when gold was down at 320, I asked one of my TA gurus what he thought about gold and he replied:

-I don't know if it can get to 400, but if it breaks that level convincingly, it can go from 400 to 500 in days.

If you think about it, the way to take the wind out of gold's sails is to push it up there in short order.

Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 12:50:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112702)
TA TA TA --AND the "KING of the HILL" is Sir Smeagol !!!! (I KNEW IT !!!) <;-)
COMEX paper GOLD prices !GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27
===

GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85
===
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/02/2003; 12:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112703)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The precious metals gained again on a weakening US dollar though some attribute the gains to gold producer Barrick statements that they will reduce their hedgebook to zero. However, the real story in gold is the plunging US dollar as foreigners bail out of US investments. The dollar remains overvalued and is likely to hit lower lows. Energy prices also added pressure on the markets as well with oil back over $30/bbl. The soaring current account and budget deficits have both foreign and domestic investors "running for the hills". As a result the precious metals provided prudent investors with a nice layer of "portfolio insurance".

Jon H. Warner
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 12:54:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112704)
Thanks Sir Soc !
This looks like it may be a "BLASTOFF" to Mr. Sinclair !
(IF I am reading him correctly.)
Would it not be nice to see a LIMIT UP on the COMEX paper ?
(HEY, even Wizards dream too!)
<;-)
CoBra(too)
(12/02/2003; 13:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112705)
Barrick is coming to its Senses!
Or is it?

Please, tell me how to close 16 moz of forwarded gold, when the hedge book was already under water to the tune of 1.2 billion dollars in the latest quarter and at an average of 365 $/oz!?

We're now talking 400 plus POG and the hedge book of ABX may have reached stratopherical dimensions - oh, on the wrong side of the ledger. This may mean these geniuses are finding it somewhat difficult to explain their premium option "excercises" to their shareholders, as the share price was lagging badly any non-hedger! Premium, or not!
... and that may be a negligible problem, as their bullion bankers may not be really impressed by a mere "name", as their margin call draws near!

Anyway, here's another take, supplied by GATA's Chris Powell:
***by Nicole Mordant

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec. 2 (Reuters) -- Barrick
Gold Corp., whose name has become synonymous with selling
gold on forward markets, said on Tuesday it had formally
committed itself to drop hedging as a strategy, sending
bullion prices to a fresh 7-1/2 high.

In an interview with Reuters, Barrick chief executive Greg
Wilkins said the world's third biggest gold miner would, over
time, empty its forward sales book -- the biggest in the gold
business -- although it was in no rush, or under any pressure,
to get rid of it.

"But eventually the hedge book will come to zero. We aren't
qualifying the policy. We are adopting truly a no-hedging
policy," Wilkins said.

Gold surged to a 7-1/2 year high, hitting $405.55 an ounce,
after Wilkins firmed up informal comments made by Barrick
chairman and founder Peter Munk 11 days ago. Munk said
then that the Toronto-based firm's commitment to hedging
was a thing of the past.

As promised, the firm also posted a formal no-hedging
policy statement on its Web site on Tuesday.

Before the news, which also helped to lift Barrick's share
price off earlier lows, bullion was trading at around $402 an
ounce.

"Investors will be pleased that the company has an intention
to reduce their hedge, book thus increasing its leverage to
the commodity," said Haytham Hodaly, an analyst at Salman
Partners.

Barrick's stock was trading at C$29.03, down 32 Canadian
cents, on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday, up from
a morning low of C$28.89.

Tells of why, but mum on how

Wilkins, who took the helm at Barrick in February, said he
had spent the last eight to nine months speaking to investors
and hearing their concerns about the firm's hedge book,
which critics say reduces the firm's exposure to rising gold
prices.

Currently weighing in at 16 million ounces of gold, Barrick
has reduced the hedge book from a peak of 24 million ounces
18 months ago.

But it remains far fatter than the hedge programs of rivals
Newmont Mining Corp., a staunch anti-hedger with about
2.5 million gold ounces sold forward, and Placer Dome Inc.
with about 10 million ounces. The share prices of both
Newmont and Placer have outperformed Barrick's this year
as bullion has risen.

"The (hedging) program has worked incredibly well and
continues to work well but I can't deny that there is a hedging
discount in the capital markets," Wilkins said.

"I don't believe that it is prudent or necessary to continue
pursuing a strategy that doesn't allow the value of the
company to surface in the marketplace."

Wilkins said Barrick no longer needed the financial security
offered by the predetermined prices of the sales program.
With $1 billion in cash on its balance sheet and access to
capital markets, Barrick is able to fund its growth plans,
which may include a drive into Asia.

Analysts said it was crucial to know how Barrick plans to cut
back its hedge positions, as it could be expensive if the gold
price continues to rise. But Wilkins declined to provide
details, saying only that many options were being considered.

Some analysts said Barrick had woken up too late in the gold
cycle to change a policy that has been bitterly attacked by
anti-hedging groups since the bullion price began rising in
2001. But there was also praise for Barrick.

"Yes, obviously they have been a bit late. But hindsight is
20-20 and it's the same hedge book that has been very
successful for them throughout the last two decades,"
Hodaly said.

"Long-term investors will remember that this helped them
when the gold price was at dismal levels," he said.***

... Long time investors will also remember that survival - as nice as it may sound - is only part of the equation. In times of a gold bull market, they just might expect more of a performance; At least more than sub average ... and probably without the constant fear of margin calls and a potential derivative melt-down.

Maybe some of you here have been shareholders in the oldest US gold mining company - Homestake? I have and have never forgiven these predators to take 'em over for scratch!

Shame on ABX - a company, which could have become great on its own merits - instead, it chose to defile its product for a short term gain! cb2





Cavan Man
(12/02/2003; 14:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112706)
@CB(too)
Simple and quick question.....how can a company in this (seemingly desparate) position....so far underwater... avoid being "called in" by the winning hands?

I don't get it. Remember Ashanti and Cambior? What's different this time around? Where is the "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" in all its sordid manifestations?

TIA....friend...Kevin
Buongiorno!
(12/02/2003; 14:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112707)
*****411.60*****
Yes, I think gold will reach and surpass $500/oz in '04 because, for the past twenty years or so, we have been trying to spend ourselves rich and now must try to borrow our way out of debt! My spies tell me that if Congress had to abide by the accounting rules of Sarbines-Oxley, the current budget deficit would be about 1.5 TT. Mamma Mia! Vino, per favore!

Chin-Chin....ting!
Buongiorno!
CoBra(too)
(12/02/2003; 14:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112708)
@ CM
Very Valid Question!

Yes, Indeed, how come the margin calls are still not triggered?

Well, according to Dietmar's work - and a bit of my own - we feel that 414 POG may be the ultimate trigger. 414 seems the delicate number, when the margin requirements of the co. are finally exhausted ... Ha, though what do I know?

This is just a mathematical equation, where Munk & co. wouldn't be able to rustle up enough equity or liquidity to stave off bankruptcy by margin according to Black/Sholes' risk averting Model. This might also only be true, if the counterparty(s) are purely US dollar denominated - as in JPM or GS -, though overall you may have spot deferred hedges as long as you are liquid. If not, try to defer a margin call!

Gold in the ground is great - so is next years great soy bean crop - and as long as you don't get called on the real McCoy -NOW - or tide over by paying up! you're in deep do-do!
... and in the final analysis, who's do-do is deeper, the chicken or the egg's? cb2


Cavan Man
(12/02/2003; 15:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 112709)
CoBra(too)
They (ABX) did make it a point to mention publicly they had $1.2BILLION USD = CASH. Perhaps they have been hung out to dry. A mining company is prey to the bullion banks due to the ultimate backstops...central banks. In life there are winners and losers and there is ALWAYS a fall guy or (too)....someone to take the rap. Shareholders will get screwed (of course) ala ENRON et al but the executives will continue to live large. Feliz NAVIDAD...CM
CoBra(too)
(12/02/2003; 15:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112710)
Yes, Sir CM ...
ABX made it public having 1.2 billion dollars cash. In the latest Qu. and it also became clear that their hedge book was under water to the same tune ... 1.2 billion dollars. And that was at an average sales price of 365$/oz!

At 403 POG or even think 414, who really cares about their 87 moz of deep storage gold?

I want to chew my beans now and won't be 'deferring' starvation until my premium supplier choses to deliver at his discretion!

...? cb2
Cavan Man
(12/02/2003; 15:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112711)
Invesco...Strong...Putnam....Janus....MSDW (settled)
Cheers to all the "financial advisers" and stock/bond peddlers. Make mine (physical)GOLD.

What a bunch of scumbags.
Boilermaker
(12/02/2003; 16:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112712)
Today's Game; Markets 1 Riggers 0
It must be hell trying to rig today's markets. Like keeping the tide from coming in (or out). Yesterday the economic news said "happy days are here again" and everyone dutifully piled into shares. But-- the guys who deal currencies were heading for the $US exits. And the guys/gals like us that like gold were buying. It's hard to keep all the folks fooled all the time.

Today the economy did not shout a booming message and the shares got soggy. Who the hell is running this game anyway? Can't they be consistent? We need more good news to keep this pig flying. A little more lipstick please.

Cheers,
Boilermaker
CoBra(too)
(12/02/2003; 16:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112713)
BB's DMR - has captured it again !
"Suddenly the world is waking up to the fact that the only currency that can't be debased is gold," said John Embry, president of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management Inc...." - No need for explanation ...

Thanks again, Jon for your great efforts - cb2

CoBra(too)
(12/02/2003; 17:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112714)
**** 414.--***
As per my (un-)educated guess ABX will be under water. Though the GOLD won't stop there and as the derivative implosions may start at this juncture - I'll believe that even 500 POG will be a non event in 2004.

Gold will regain its rightful place - "as the only currency, which can't be debased" (thanks to John Embry)-
as the only true value!

cb2

Thanks MK and Gandy for another great contest ... well knowing, that my guess is either too low or too high and that's why I'm cb(too)- t(w)o old to admit total ignorance of TA ...

Goldilox
(12/02/2003; 17:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112715)
KRY
Anyone (not insiders) have an idea what's going on with Chrystallex? They were rising side by side with Canyon and the other juniors right until Thanksgiving. Did the market dislike a couple of their latest alliances?
Smeagol
(12/02/2003; 17:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112716)
King for a day
(mouth hanging open) O, the view from up here is sstunning.... and the Goldshine is almosst too bright for uss.... Smeagol thanks all at the Castle for this treat!

My firsst (and only) decree as KOTH is - A ROUND OF GOLDEN ALE FOR ALL!

Who's next? (grin)

S.
Slowman
(12/02/2003; 17:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112717)
***** 424.40*****
There will be an absolute run to 500 for gold per ounce during 2004. The world is tired of fiat and before gold gives up it will surpass 850 . History always repeats itself. Any terrorist attack in America will push it over500 in 2004. We have been told its coming.BUY NOW.
Remarx
(12/02/2003; 18:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112718)
Basic Questions on How to Sell Gold/Silver Coins
Althoug I buy my PM coins at CPM, I'm pretty sure from reading the web site that CPM does not buy back in small quantities.

I was wondering how best to sell (non-collectible) coins in the future. I am not asking for company specifics that might infringe on the hospitality of CPM, just for general tips. Can you get close to the "sell price" shown at the big POG quote sites, say, by selling coins locally in your town? Is the paperwork shipped with your coins important to retain as some sort of proof, or are the coins themselves sufficient? I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value? (Assuming you keep them from tarnishing.)

Sorry if these are naive questions, but I have just been buying for the past year, never selling!

Cheers -r

admin
(12/02/2003; 18:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112719)
Buy Backs
Dear Remarx,

We do buy back coins in any amount from our clientele. Please call your account representative for current prices.

Our telephone recording sometimes gives people the wrong impression. We do not but from the public -- the public being those who are not clients of USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals. We advertise all over the United States and people have called us in the past from all over the United States to sell class rings, spoons, jewelry, gold coins -- you name it. We are in the investment business so we send those inquiries to the local coin shop, and the phone message is designed to allay those calls. If we didn't do it that way, we would be inundated with phone calls from sellers of scrap. That's not our business. At the same time, we welcome working with our clientele and I hope this clears your confusion in this regard.

Thanks, Remarx
mudr
(12/02/2003; 18:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112720)
******$406.10*******
******$406.10*******
This will be the closing price for all the reasons that have been posted over and over again. What I like to think and talk about now is how the same themes of conversation are occuring that I heard when Gold was reaching $300. Is this how the discussions will be when Gold reaches $500 ??? and the $600 ??? When will the discussion turn from "Will it break the ___hundred barrier" or "Will it hold?" to "Wow, how high can it go?" As long as some are wondering if it can break the barrier or hold the price I will pour every available savings into the gold market, because it's going to keep on going up - and way past the point when some turn the questions to "How high can it go?"
MUDR
Cavan Man
(12/02/2003; 18:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112721)
BB's Daily Market Report
The London stock exchange appears ready to trade the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) on the 9th of this month, similar to the much touted U.S. version of gold-backed ETFs that are being held up mostly by Wall Streeters in concert with their friends at the Securities and Exchange Commission who live in fear of competition to their financial instruments as they attempt to strip every last penny out of the average gullible investor. Gold as a currency without liability has these charlatans shaking in fear.

Jon: Thanks for tremendous effort. Your daily reports are outstanding and simply Another very good reason to do business with MK and company.
Sundeck
(12/02/2003; 19:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112722)
****$416.0****
Will spot leap to $500 in 2004, that is the question.

If spot were to continue his quasi-linear upward trend of the past year or two, then we might expect to find him perched about $480 by year end; plus or minus about $40. So, on immediate past trends, there is a good chance that spot might spike above $500 in 2004, but settle below $500.

However, that assumes that things drift along more or less as they have done in the past couple of years. What has changed?

Well, not much except realisation and mood! There is now little doubt in the minds of the many that the scree slope upon which the $US is perched is unstable and is likely to subside in surges. Similarly there is now little doubt in the minds of the many that gold is not the "has-been" that it was thought to be a few years ago. This trend has been gathering strength and is manifest by the concavity in the POG versus Time curve for the last few years --- the trend is not linear, but is concave upwards. Thus POG is likely to change more rapidly in the coming year than in the past few years. Hence, it is likely that spot will not ony spike above $500 in 2004, but will also settle above $500.

FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck

PS. Gandalf - keep supplementing Spot's diet with that roo meat, but remember MODERATION in all things.

Waverider - no more gold flakes PLEASE - they are indigestable and only add weight...

;-)
aussie
(12/02/2003; 19:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112723)
Gold Market - not a mugs game
No wonder the gold bugs in America are cheering! Good luck to you all.
Have to say it isn't the same in Australia due to the increase in our dollar. Today I can see the reason Black Blade was always pushing the insurance angle of gold.

On 23rd January 2003, AU Spot - AU$621.38 (US$364.30). Today (3rd December) AU Spot $554.23. So in fact since January a LOSS of AU$67.15 per ounce.

Unfortunately all our media outlets report increases and gold prices not in AU$ but in US$.

Think it must be time for a holiday in the States. Any ideas on how to transport gold out of Australia?

Cheers
neer-do-well
(12/02/2003; 20:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112724)
two
$ value = what it will buy which =s what we produce. What we produce in the end is what the $ is worth.

Health insurance in the end is the REASON for costs to go thru the roof. Cancel insurance and watch the fees go down, chargin is one thing collectin is another. Universal insurance? Joke. We probably had better medical care before the advent of insurance.
Dollar Bill
(12/02/2003; 20:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112725)
*>*
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.aspMarshall Auerbach on the euro.
Informed opinion it appears.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 20:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112726)
Sir Remarx's QUESTIONS !
You asked -- "I received some silver coins recently in plastic sheets; does removing them from the sheets reduce their value? (Assuming you keep them from tarnishing.)"
===
I am sorry, BUT I must jump in here to answer this QUESTION !
IF you wish to sell coins that were minted and inclosed in plastic -- DO NOT REMOVE the coins from the plastic ! Even coins that were purched in a "flip" should be keep in the plastic ! THIS is in MOST ALL cases the correct answer.
==
Take for instance the gold coins from China --- Pandas ---
IN CHINA -- IF the coin is removed from the plastic, it can NOT be sold in China. WHY? you ask, -- LOCAL CUSTOM !
Just like the Slabbed collector's coins -- IF the coin is removed from the SLAB, you have only an ungraded coin !
AND FINALLY, the comment about "keep them from tarnishing"
IF this means by cleaning or polishing --- MIA CHAI !!
THAT is almost the worst thing that can be done to ANY coin ! IF you want to see a grown collector cry, show them a rare coin that you have just given a polished shine !
<;-)

Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 20:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112727)
Sir Aussie --
aussie (12/2/03; 19:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 112723)
Gold Market - not a mugs game ---
===
Sir Aussie, Aussie is not my native language and I am afraid that it is about sixth on my comprehension scale.
The word "mugs" is not in my WEBSTERS INTERNATIONAL dictionary, and other than the word "Muggle", which I have learned from a Mr. Potter, I can not invision the thought. Can you provide a hint ?
Thanks
<;-)
Cytek
(12/02/2003; 20:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112728)
****** $409.10 ******
Will spot go to $500 in 2004. I believe as most people on this forum that Gold is in the beginning of a muli-year Bull run. The dollar is one sick puppy and as foreign investment continues to leave the U.S. the dollar will drop even more, .80 by the end of 2004 should be easily attainable meanwhile the POG should touch 500 by this time next year. I hope it stays on the present trend line and climbs up nice and slow, so all on this forum can continue to accumulate. Buy the dips, don't sell till $160,000 an ounce,ouch.

Cytek
Remarx
(12/02/2003; 21:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112729)
Thanks!
@admin: Thank you. Sorry, should have asked my CPM rep first! Not that I want to sell any back now. I am still waiting for the $500 in 2004, and then beyond!

@gandalf: Thanks for answering what was probably a silly question about the plastic. (I wasn't talking about cleaning collector coins, just new eagles and maples.)

Now, can anybody tell me about transporting coins to Canada from the US? Is the limit the same as $10K FRN? If so, that would imply that it is money, and I would think that it would have to be $10K of face value, not worth. No? Also, if it is less than the $10K, does one have to declare it?


Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 21:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112730)
MORE for Sir Remarx
ARGGGGGGGGGGGG !
Maple Leaves are 0.999 or 0.9999 PURE Au and even picking them up incorrectly can cause a minor scratch seen with a LOOP !
SOME buyers will deduct at least a dollar or two for such a hairline scratch!!! Keep them in the TUBE or flip and do not consider even thinking about shining them ! <;-)
21mabry
(12/02/2003; 21:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112731)
Slab Coins
My friends grandfather has told me that ever once in a while someone will bring in a slab to sell,and these people have removed original coin and replaced it with lower grade coin.These people than reseal the slab.He said some of these people are masters of their craft.If you buy slabs buy from reputable dealers.21
Remarx
(12/02/2003; 21:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112732)
@gandalf: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
What you said about ANY coin finally sunk in to my thick skull!
PCV1
(12/02/2003; 21:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112733)
Barrick and its Derivative Position
So, Barrick is giving up hedging. Is this a company responding to the demands of their shareholders or a company that is quietly changing course, like a supertanker? If we take it that ABX does have a ticking time bomb hidden in its accounts then how can it respond? It can't respond openly and it can't terminate its derivatives.

Presumably it will continue to openly sell into the market at the highs and look to increasing its gold reserves and production. Buying into elephants, such as Sukhoi Log, will be the only way that ABX can increase its size to overcome the drag imposed by its derivative position.
Gandalf the White
(12/02/2003; 21:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112734)
My final answer to Sir Remarx !
IT is US$10K of WORTH !
AND yes, IF you wish to bring back into the USA the same items, you should register them with the USA Customs BEFORE you leave the USA !
WHY ? you ask ---
Let me tell you a story -- Four Goldbugs that had been very lucky in a small creekbed in "Northern Kalifornia" had a collection of LARGE gold nuggets ! This nugget collection was carried in a gold colored "gun case" (you know the type that has the cut-out holes in foam, to hold the items in place). The four Goldbugs, were interested in showing this collection to a number of Jr. Miners that were listed on the Vancouver Exchange and thought that they would drop by a Gold Convention that was in Vancouver BC at the same time.
SOOOO, they jumped into their exploration vehicle (a Baby Limo.) and drove to the Great White North !
One of the four, had been a CHIP, and knew a little about the Fed. Border regulations. He had the collection professionally photographed and had two copies of the "stamped" photo.
He insisted on stopping at the US Customs Office and "declaring" the collection. He showed them the collection, and gave them a photo of it, asking for a receipt of "export".
IT was very lucky that he did. BECAUSE, after speaking with, and showing the collection to a number of companies and Goldbugs, that week, --- UPON re-entering the USA the Limo was waved over to the Inspection Area and everyone was requested to "disembark" and enter the "Building". Each of the four was handed an official form and requested to write down if they had anything of worth over $10K, and all the items that each had to "declare". All four said, and wrote on the form, "NOTHING" ! Upon collection of the forms, the Inspector requested the Limo keys and instructed two other Officers to search the vehicle.
They opened the trunk and instantly picked up the GOLD Gun Case ! Opened it up and ask, "What is this worth ?"
The answer given by the driver of the Limo, was, "About $100,000." !
The Officers all smiled and ask why we had not declared the GOLD.
The former CHIP, then ask them, "Why do you want to know ?" The Officers advised, that "someone" had tipped them that the four in the Limo were illegally transporting GOLD and that if the collection was confiscated by the USA Customs, that "someone" would receive HALF the collection as a reward !
At that, the former CHIP smiled as he presented the export receipt and photo of the collection to the Officer and said "not a problem" !
The other three Goldbugs were THEN able to smile too, as they rushed off to visit the men's room.
SOOOOOO, DECLARE the "WORTH" and get documentation !
<;-)

Remarx
(12/02/2003; 22:08:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112735)
Re: Transport
Gandalf, all I can say is: WOW! AM I GLAD I ASKED!!!!! I had no idea.
aussie
(12/02/2003; 22:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112736)
Sir Gandalf reply
Sir Gandalf, - a mug is just an Australian colloquialism - aussie slang word for someone who is a fool/sucker,- perhaps 'someone who just isn't on the ball'.

Cheers
Waverider
(12/02/2003; 23:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112737)
Puplava Wrap-Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm...well...not exactly a wrap up - but if anyone feels the urge to study the charts tonight..support and resistance levels - they're just about all there!

~Paper Avalanche - thanks for the information kind Sir, but unfortunately I can't heed your suggestions as I live in Canada. I shall pass it on to Sir Boilermaker however, who appears to be suffering the 2004 Medical Blues ;o)

~ Sundeck - some Goldbug friends and I cracked open a bottle of Goldschlagger last night in celebration of closing >$400.00. It's being saved, only to be opened again upon breaking $500.00! In fact, we have lines drawn on the bottle at $100.00 intervals indicating disciplined consumption/celebration levels all the way up to $1,000.00/ounce! We'll be in for a few more bottles mind you, when the Invisible Hand wins the price guessing competition! Cheers All,

Waverider
Gandalf the White
(12/03/2003; 00:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112738)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
POG Contest UPDATE and the Revised Rules !POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 00:01 (Denver time) WEDNESDAY 12/3/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

---
The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested a December �03 COMEX Contract POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a German "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by a short remark on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, --- AND WHY !

<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MST) on SUNDAY, December 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY

===
Just in time for that last minute Xmas present !!
"COME ON IN" ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! The TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)
Belgian
(12/03/2003; 01:31:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112739)
Thanks to Dollar Bill for the Prudentbear -euro-article....
As if the dollar is looking at the euro, and...tells Euroland how that euro should be re-modelled...managed...copied from, and in line with, the dollar !?
As if the dollar is suggesting to throw away any kind of currency-stability and go ...DEBT !

Note that the euro NEVER wishes to comment on the dollar !!!
I leave the interpetation of this euro-stance to the readers.

And it is fine with me that nobody in the dollar camp sees any Gold-connection in the euro-concept ! Quite normal, because the dollar-system has already dis-connected from Gold.

As long as we remain in the economical desert and the debt-lion is (must be) debt-powered, the euro only needs to outrun the dollar by 1 nanometer. Freegold...!?

(BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study)
A Canadian
(12/03/2003; 01:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112740)
**************** 444.00 ************
$500 in 04'? nahhh.....that's happening in 03! This bull's running parabolic in 04. Howcome? Here goes.....

The funnymentals can longer be denied. (Not even by Barrick) The damned thing is going up. Period.....
The propensity for manias has never been greater; combine
todays instant global communication/information with the trillions of interest free FRNs whirling about and soon the gluttons will be at the trough. Miniscule gold stock market caps and sellable bullion will severely limit available seating. This ticket's gonna be pricey.....

The inflation/deflation debate has been settled (see ya later Prechter!) The juggernaut of fiat debasement is now unstoppable. Tangibles are rocketing. The king of tangibles will soon be visiting the Oort cloud. Au, call home.....

Crazy-like-a-fox Sinclair reveals his MINIMUM upside projections. Keeps his real targets to himself (so as not to be perceived as crazy).....

The Blade (god bless him) posts less cause his work's been done. The trend's on cruise and he knows it. (just like FOA).....( Pizz too!)

Greenie banged Galt's creator. He's gonna shrug and put Au back in it's place. Remember what he told Ron Paul: "I wouldn't change a word".....

Entire U.S. military complex can't find osama-omar-saddam. No cheering in the streets. No oil to pay for it all. This can only end badly.....

CANADIAN gold reserves down from 20 million ounces to a few hundred thousand.(for sale, by the way)(thanks Brian). Another bench warmer who walked the plank for the Clinton-Rubin lets-grease-the-pig-pay-for-it-later scamola. The emptying of western vaults will be the REAL scandal.(move over Jacko). Portugal, Holland, Belgium, England et al had prison sex too. The hall of shame awaits you.....

Rising sun will soon realise the folly of shorting the yen.
Shotgun marriage to evolving sino-russian-arab (economic axis of evil?) gold slobbering heathens will result in penetration of the U.S. dollar/Maginot line.....

I bought 2 more ozs instead of paying my rent! CANADIAN BULL CHARGING ! (landlord's in Florida. Ha!)




Old Yeller
(12/03/2003; 02:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112741)
The Four Horsemen
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031128-032727-6973r
Go mainstream,on UPI,no less.

Calling for a 1.65 euro in 2005?

That will never do,where's this free gold,that would seem to be a less divisive safe haven.
Topaz
(12/03/2003; 02:45:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112742)
***$375.4***
Ah...a contest, always a pleasure to attempt to wrest some Bullion from the most generous coffers of CPM!.... $500 Gold?...As a paid up member of the FreeGold brigade I'm thinking we'll see $300 Pog before the magic "5"...time will tell.
Paper Avalanche
(12/03/2003; 05:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112743)
The rush to the exits has begun....
http://www.vneconomy.com.vn/en_index.php?action=preview&cat=01&id=031203103248Snip:

"State Bank will sell sufficient US dollars to import gold

An announcing from the State Bank of Vietnam yesterday said: From December 5, the State Bank of Vietnam will sell sufficient US dollars at official exchange rate for banks and companies who already have had gold import quota to import gold stabilizing gold prices on the domestic market. Quantity of gold allowed to import under licenses granted by the State Bank is eight tonnes. An official from the State Bank of Vietnam said supplying foreign currencies to cover imports by the commercial banks is normal and smooth. Experts calculates if bank supply sufficient dollars to buy gold at exchange rate of VND15,621 per dollar (as Vietcombank's selling rate on Dec.,2), gold price on domestic market would be reduced by about VND100,000 per tael, because domestic price of gold in Ho Chi Minh City now is higher than import price about VND130,000 per tael."

End snip.

PA
Gondolin
(12/03/2003; 06:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112744)
The Press is waking up ,but...
The Sun, that favourite rag of the common masses in Britain, famous for its' Page 3 Girls has a small article today as follows

Small investors are to get a simple way of speculating on gold prices.
Punting the "yellow metal", as it is is called, is popular with City professionals.
But they use complex financial means - to avoid physically holding gold bars- which are often beyond the reach of ordinary folk. Now a company whose share price is linked to gold prices is listing on the stock market.
Everey ten shares of GOLD BULLION SECURITIES will buy one troy ounce of gold, valued at $401.35 (�233.34) at last night's close. Managing Director Simon Village said the precious metal will be purchased aand stored on clients' behalf. He said: 'The share price should mirror the gold price. With the market turmoil, gold has been a good way to diversify.
SUN CITY COMMENT: An old City adage says that, when private investors are about to get on board, it's time for the professionals to get off. Is this launch a sign that the booming gold market is about to turn?

Gondolin: Guess which team the Sun bats for? Have I misunderstood the reality of things or is this article blatantly incorrect? My understanding was that they would not purchase the bullion and store it physically but rather would be playing the paper game with perhaps 10% of the bullion actually held?
Gondolin
(12/03/2003; 06:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112745)
Sun Article
Or is the Managing Director Simon Village really the Village Idiot?
Socrates964
(12/03/2003; 06:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112746)
Media
Hmmm. here's the Guardian's take

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1098348,00.html

Note the following sentence:

On Monday gold prices went past $400 (�231) per troy ounce for the first time since 1996 but analysts expect prices to move back to about $350 this year and next.

Frankly, I doubt many UK investors will do very much, particularly since they will be sacrificing much of their liquid assets to the great god of rising mortgage rates in the near future. Indian demand is a better bet.
eccentricventures
(12/03/2003; 06:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112747)
$402.80
I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can. Got to clear those short postions. I frankly expect to see sub $400.00 gold at least one more time, based on past experience. But the trend is up and gold will battle back over $400.00 again. Just a guess, all in MVHO.
Clink!
(12/03/2003; 06:43:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112748)
Freudian slip, Sir Gandalf ?
I read your cross-border story with great interest, but was surprised at the change from the dispassionate 3rd person recounting to the insertion of a 'we'. (Hope you didn't ruin the pants as well !)

I tried out your advice with a tube of maple leaves last night, but, frankly, while the coins stayed beautifully intact while I passed them from one hand to another, the sensory input was sadly missing - no clink !
Clink!
(12/03/2003; 07:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112749)
Short covering @ eccentricventures
You said :- I think the cabal will do what they can to contain the price as long as they can. Got to clear those short postions.

This may be true eventually, but at what price ? At some stage, there will be a decoupling of the paper and physical price of gold when there is the realization that there is not enough physical to satisfy the paper demand. At this point, the price of physical will go 'too da moon', but the paper price, rather than following it, will revert to its intrinsic value - which is zero. It will be shown to be no longer 'as good as gold'.

It is possible - probable even - that the decoupling will occur after a big ramp up of paper/physical price, but this is not going to end in a short squeeze. If that were going to happen, we would already have seen it. The open interest is just going to keep on growing until it is the longs selling (at a discount to physical) which causes it to decline. There are some who cannot believe this because of all the margin requirement to maintain the short position, not to mention the potential loss for the bullion banks holding that position. But it really depends on who the banks are holding that position for - if it is someone who has the capability of 'printing' as many FRNs as necessary, there is no problem. All this to extend the dollar timeline.

This is why almost everyone here is holding physical - all the other paper games we may play and talk about are merely a means to get more FRNs (or whatever paper is used locally) to get more physical. And the paper game may burn up any day.

Gold - let's get physical !
C!
pmurgsRSA
(12/03/2003; 07:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112750)
(No Subject)
Rand woes for South AfricansThe Rand is killing the SA Gold shares today. Spare a thought for those of us gold bugs in SA who are still waiting for the gold bull to start...

As my first post here, I'd just like to say thanks to all for the information that has been posted here. It has helped tremendously with my understanding of the markets and economies.
pilgrims_gold
(12/03/2003; 07:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112751)
**** $401.10 ****
Will Gold go to $500 next year?

It is almost inevitable, maybe certain, possibly compulsory, conceivably unavoidable, perchance
absolute, perhaps assured, supposedly beyond doubt, essentially categorical, and fundamentally
cocksure to happen.

Yeah maybe!
Cavan Man
(12/03/2003; 07:39:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112752)
pmurgsRSA
The gold bull has started. It's the denomination of the asset in USD that is killing the goose.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 08:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112753)
With U.S. Busy, China Is Romping With Neighbors
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/03/international/asia/03LETT.htmlsnippit:

"After Afghanistan, after Iraq, after bringing democracy to the Middle East, when the United States refocuses on Asia, it will find a much different China in a much different region," James J. Przystup, a research fellow at the National Defense University, wrote recently.

Beyond the economics and the diplomacy, something else is going on. China has the allure of the new. A new affinity is developing between the once feared China and the rest of Asia.

Karim Raslan, a Malaysian lawyer and writer who traveled to Washington recently on a Fulbright scholarship, put it this way. The American "obsession" with terror seems tedious to Asians, he said. "We've all got to live, we've all got to make money," said Mr. Raslan. "The Chinese want to make money and so do we."

Goldilox:

Not missing a beat, China fiddles while the west burns! Hey, Nero! put down that torch!
Max Rabbitz
(12/03/2003; 08:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112754)
pmurgsRSA
How fortunate to have this opportunity to exchange Rand paper promises for real wealth at such bargain prices. I fondly remember the days of $260-280 gold. It seems like such a short time ago.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 08:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112755)
GM drops plans to sell Mortgage Unit
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/03/markets/markets_newyork/index.htmsnippit:

Fellow Dow stock General Motors (GM: up $2.19 to $45.47, Research, Estimates) rallied more than 5 percent after the company reported a more than 20 percent gain in U.S. vehicle sales in November, while competitors Ford Motor Co. (F: up $0.06 to $12.98, Research, Estimates) and Chrysler (DCX: up $0.74 to $39.28, Research, Estimates) saw declines.

Late Tuesday GM also dropped tentative plans to sell its massive commercial mortgage arm, expressing confidence it can find ways to access new funding.

Goldilox:

Commercial property still looks good to lenders who want to capitalize on the potential growth in payrolls.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 09:11:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112756)
Too Hot for Fed?
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/02/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htmsnippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The bond market's Uncle Alan has told it again and again that a Fed rate hike just isn't going to happen soon. But if the bond market takes a look under the bed, it will find that there really are plenty of monsters down there.

First off, the economy is soaring. The third-quarter's growth rate of 8.2 percent was the best the United States has seen in nearly 20 years. Yes, the nation's key inflation gauge, the consumer price index, remains muted, but commodity prices are surging. The Commodity Research Bureau Index of commodity prices has touched six-year highs; copper, a favorite early indicator among inflation hawks, is up 37 percent this year.

Meantime, the dollar has fallen sharply, sinking to its lowest level in three years against the yen (despite a massive effort by Japanese authorities to keep the buck strong) and its lowest levels ever against the euro.

Goldilox:

Even the cheerleaders are finding it hard to believe that Sir AG won't raise the rates. Of course, if he can "outstare" the EMU, maybe they'll drop theirs first.
Boilermaker
(12/03/2003; 09:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112757)
Belgian msg#: 112739
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm"(BTW - latest article of contraryinvestor has some very fine, balanced insights - a must study)"

I heartily agree with Sir Belgian's recommendation and have posted the site above. This article offers excellent long-term perspective on gold, currencies and changing world economic power.

Thanks for the post, Sir B

Boilermaker
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 10:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112758)
Invisible Ace in the Gold Camp - Sol (FSO)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/120203.htmlsnippit:

The central bankers who are pumping so much money like some insane beasts are in effect destroying the dollar now at velocity that is close to reaching a terminal level. This in turn is pushing up the currencies of resource-based nations to extreme levels, one such country is South Africa. Why do I specifically mention this country? South Africa has the largest Gold, Platinum, diamond and various other commodities reserves in the world. The Rand has appreciated at extreme pace to become what I have called the best performing currency in the word. From taking 14 Rands to buy 1 dollar it now takes less than 7 Rands to do the same and this has taken place in approx 1 year.

This has had the net effect of actually pushing the cost of South African mining companies through the roof. Their costs are in rands, but they have to sell the product in depreciating dollars so they keep making less and less and they reaching a critical point, If the Rand should appreciate more say past the 6.50 point, then many companies are going to be forced to start shutting down.�

Goldilox:

More analysis of $$ vs. rising currencies, especially in commodity rich countries. I keep rethinking my statement of a few days ago. If the SM is up 35% (rough average of the indeces), and the dollar is down 30%, the SM growth is barely positive - hardly a "recovery". Many authors are also noting that the huge multinationals are reporting profit growth that is more due to currency arbitrage than actual increases in sales and margin.
Gandalf the White
(12/03/2003; 11:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112759)
WELCOME Sir PmurgsRSA !!
pmurgsRSA (12/3/03; 07:27:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 112750)
===
The WORLD gets smaller as the Goldhearts join together !
Now that your at the TABLEROUND -- Keep on posting.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/03/2003; 11:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112760)
Very observant, Sir Clink !
Clink! (12/3/03; 06:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 112748)
Freudian slip, Sir Gandalf ?
===
YES, Sir Clink! You caught me, the "Driver", rated as the most responsible person in the minds of the Officials !
AND, I only let a few of the Leaves out of the little red top tubes for CLINKING !!!
<;-)
Zhisheng
(12/03/2003; 11:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 112761)
Up into the Close.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1And just above yesterday's close.

Gold seems to be holding over $400.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 11:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112762)
The Once and Future Money - Bob Landis
http://www.goldensextant.com/LLCPostings4.htmlsnippit:

Fiats Past and Present


Unit Context Duration Severity

Banque Royale Notes Regency of Louis XV 1716-1720 one livre to zero

Continental Bills American Revolution 1775-1780 1/specie dollar to 40/specie dollar

Assignats French Revolution 1790-1797 1/gold franc to 600/gold franc

Reichsmarks Weimar Germany 1919-1924 .08/US$ to 4.2 trillion/US$

Federal Reserve Notes Cold War 1971-20?? to be determined


Now, despite their obvious differences, these episodes had several important features in common. To begin with, it's worth noting that in each case the fateful errors were made by talented and well-educated people. They were their countries� best and brightest financial minds. This includes John Law, by the way, who's gotten very bad, and I think, unfair, press ever since. These men did not take the road to ruin frivolously, but rather as a measured response to a set of exigent circumstances. The point is that governments are simply incapable of managing a money supply. The pressures and temptations always prove too great.

Goldilox:

A very good historical account of historical fiat failures and correlation to today's economic woes.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 11:46:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112763)
TABLE format not copied
The previous post began with a table, whose tabs didn't copy. When expaned, it compares the "fiat bubbles" by the damage done in their currency.
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 12:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112764)
Dollar falls to new lifetime lows against Euro
snippit:

Dollar falls to new lifetime low against euro
By Jennifer Hughes
Published: December 3 2003 11:20 | Last Updated: December 3 2003 18:20

The dollar fell to a fresh low against the euro on Wednesday as the selling that took currency investors by surprise on Tuesday continued.

The Euro reached a new lifetime high against the dollar at 1.2128 in mid-day trade, beating the high of 1.2113 it made in Asian trade.

G'lox:

No signs of letup in the dollar fall. As Sinclair says, "Stay the Course". Gee, I wonder where he first heard that?
Cavan Man
(12/03/2003; 12:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112765)
OPEC
If we only had some EURO or AU.....OPEC minister says output cut coming, now or later
Reuters News Service

VIENNA - Today OPEC said it was seeking to defend higher oil prices to compensate for the impact on the cartel's purchasing power of the U.S. dollar's decline on currency markets.

Influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said prices, now over $30 a barrel for U.S. crude, were justified by the dollar's slump against other major currencies.

Speaking ahead of a Thursday meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries he warned that the cartel would need to cut output again early next year to support the market.

"Current prices are right," said Naimi. "The dollar is weakening and purchasing power is quite weak so the price (of oil) is OK."


CM comment: They'd better bring Iraq on full stream ASAP
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/03/2003; 12:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112766)
The only way you can beat this offer... is with a stick!
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

Build your financial base with bullion!


Gold Bullion
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 12:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112767)
Tent City reprise?
Given the record low US savings, if the real estate bubble implodes into a hearty increase of foreclosures, watch for a return to the Hoovervilles and Reaganvilles that housed so many "new" street people during those post-bubble years. It reminds me of a song I published and recorded during Ronnie's reign, if I may indulge our readers.

Tent City
� 1983 Manco Arts, Inc

Dear Mr. President, I know you're working very hard,
so I don't want too much time or too much pity.
I know you'll find a way to end these unemployment blues,
'Cause there're no more vacancies in "Tent City".

-Chorus -
Tent City's in the heart of San Jose.
Down under the freeway and across the USA
We increase their population day by day
But you tell us if we "stay the course", we'll all be OK.

Now the EDD has listings for a hundred jobs or so,
and we all go out to find them every day.
When we show up to interview we're 50,000 strong
and two bucks an hour is all they're gonna pay

Chorus -

Now I've heard them say your programs have inflation on the run,
and the interest rate is low as low can be.
And I know it's costing billions just to keep the Russians down,
but you kept us down in San Jose for free.

Chorus -

So tell us Mr. President just what you're gonna do
'Cause the current situation isn't pretty.
Remember while you ride your horse
The millions who must "Stay the course"
When the only home they have is in "Tent City"

-Chorus and out

G'lox:

This was recorded in San Jose during the Tent City situation in the winter of '83. The ABC (Cap Cities) affiliate made a video of the locals in shelters and souplines and dubbed my recording over it on the 6:00 news. The following day, the producer (one of their more senior guys) was sacked and I saw him a week later on a weeny local independent station. It doesn't usually pay to create politically critical art. Just ask the Mogambo Guru if he's bringing down a Wall St analyst's salary, and watch him turn a rainbow of colors while his blood pressure oscillates!
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 13:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112769)
Gold and Commodity funds
With all the new PM and commodity funds hitting the streets, I wonder how long it will be before somebody oversubscribes one (a la the Producers) and the commodity fund managers join the SM and MF in their rogue's gallery. This has all the earmarkings of a scandal being born. Put your gold IN YOUR OWN HANDS! Call CPM for a quote!
misetich
(12/03/2003; 14:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112770)
Global: Growth at What Cost? - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031201-mon.html#anchor0Snip:

The big contrast lies in the future: In late 1993, the Fed was nearing the end of its policy accommodation, whereas today the central bank seems content to stay on hold for some time to come.
......................
In late 1993, the deficit was already on its way down; it had averaged 4.6% of GDP in 1991-92 and was headed toward balance in late 1997, before recording four years of surplus over the 1998-2001 period. In the current climate, fiscal policy is moving in precisely the opposite direction -- federal deficits that seem likely to hold well above 4% of GDP through at least 2004-05.
................................
Yet in the context of today's massive and record US current-account deficit, there's plenty of room for further slippage in the dollar -- even more so that the 5% additional drop that occurred from levels prevailing in late 1993.
........................
America's net private saving rate (for consumers and businesses, combined -- net of depreciation) currently stands at 5.0% of GNP -- well below the 9% average of the 1960s and the 6.9% reading of late 1993, when the previous recovery was shifting into high gear.
....................
And that underscores one of the biggest imbalances of all -- the massive US current-account deficit that is required to attract such foreign capital. In 2Q03, the US current-account deficit stood at 5.1% of GDP, more than three times the 1.6% gap prevailing in late 1993.
..................
American households have led the charge in this regard. Even though nominal interest rates have fallen to 37-year lows by some measures, debt service remains uncomfortably high when compared with the jobless recovery of the early 1990s.
...............
According to Federal Reserve statistics, interest expenses as a share of disposable personal income stood at 13.3% in 2Q03, well in excess of the 10.7% reading in late 1993. A similar pattern is evident in a new broader gauge just released by the Fed -- a measure of "financial obligations," which also includes auto lease payments, home rental expenses, and homeowner insurance and property tax payments; this metric stood at 18.1% of disposable personal income in 2Q03, well above the 15.9% reading of late 1993. Debt service is high because of the extraordinary overhang in the absolute volume of consumer indebtedness; household sector debt outstanding rose above 80% of GDP in mid-2003, well in excess of the 65% share prevailing in 1993.
.......................

******************
Misetich

Roach has been on a tear, sounding the alarm bells for quite some time and is been right on the mark for the last several years.

The item that stands out besides the well known deficits, is the increasing amount of otherwise disposal income that is being required to service the ever growing mountain of debt.

Disturbingly as Roach points out the willingness of Americans to opt for higher level of leverage. Low IR have encouraged consumers to refinance and you the proceeds to 1) consolidate debts 2) support stock market investments (replacing previously obtained margin debt on the high flyers such as Microsoft, Cisco - thus the day trader has turned out to be a 'long term investor' 3) Plunge additional investments in 'low priced (!) stocks attempting to lower the costbase and recoup those trillions of evaporated stock losses
4) speculation in residential real estate market

The Feds have encouraged this behaviour - as Sir Ponzi Greenspan has repeated many times he's not concerned by high debt levels since asset values have increased proportianetely ( simulteneously denying any existing 'price inflation')

Crystaballing ahead

2004 is nearly upon us. The Feds are couting on increased inventory levels to keep the 'flamed' economy going. If this does not materialize the last stimuli (tax rebates Q2) is the last "additional flame up" -

Its doubtful the Whitehouse is going to "tolerate" higher IR in the months ahead -

Lets stay tuned.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express









Gandalf the White
(12/03/2003; 14:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112771)
TA TA TA --AND the "KING of the HILL" is Sir Smeagol !!!! ( AGAIN !!!) <;-)
12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) 404 401.5 403.9 13:29 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26
===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84
====
WOWSERS Sir Smeagol !!
You are atop the hill as "KING OF THE HILL" for the second straight day ! HANG IN THERE !
I bet you get lots of company around you now.
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/03/2003; 15:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112772)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The DMR has finally been updated (a little late today). I wish I had more time to proof read the report but there was so much info coming in that I focused on the more interesting aspects of today's markets. I think I will soon need a larger "hard drive" at this rate. Still, gold finished higher while the equities went wild only to finish nearly flat and the US dollar crumbled further against the euro. I expect to see some odd analyses from dubious economic statistics tomorrow and the rest of the week, so trading could get quite "interesting" in the short term.


Jon H. Warner
CoBra(too)
(12/03/2003; 15:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112773)
SAR hitting new High aginst the US$
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256DF100595C40?OpenDocument"South Africa's mining companies continued their white-knuckle ride into the red today as the rand soared to its highest level in almost four years".

Looks like the SA Gold Miner's have been the only losers so far this year in the PM sector. No wonder, considering the steep advance of the SAR from almost 14 Rand to the Buck to 6.25. Why is it that Mbeki's government is still clinging to relatively high interest rates and as such inviting vulture hedge funds to continue their Rand carry trade activities. The SA economy, and not the mining sector alone is suffering the consequences.

A country hit by economic and severe HIV malaise has not learned the lessons of Argentina, SE-Asia, Russia and other similar currency debacles - and the country won't be able to afford it any longer.

My guess is that a turning point may be nigh - and the carry trade specs will try to exit all at once - in particular when the POG starts to bound in leaps - even vs the SAR. I wouldn't want to miss the show, which reminds me of FOA's public burning of a 1000 share certificate of Gold Fields, which is still trading around US$ 13.70 vs the petty 4-5 bucks at this cremation.

POG in SAR is probably the only currency on this globe not having participated in POG advance - so far. As a born contrarian, I would feel we're close to a reversal!

Wouldn't wanna miss that show - cb2
SteveH
(12/03/2003; 15:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112774)
CNBC this morning
You know how, in gest, when you say something you have to say, but don't want people to understand it so you cough when you are saying it, well, this morning, the young lad who gives the economy talk (perhaps from WSJ) sort of did that when he said, "dollar" and "reserve currency status" all in one sentence.

It was one of those things someone says that has great significance but because there was no ensuing explanation or discussion of that concept, the viewer was left going with the flow of conversation and not returning to what could have been a very promising discussion or concept.

As such, the idea of the US dollar as losing world reserve status has now been trial balooned on cnbc. Whether we hear of this from them again, I guess that is to be seen.

For those of us on hear, wasn't it about three years ago now (maybe two) that we all had these great in depth discussions about this? Well, yes.

So, does that mean that mainstreem TV is about three years behind our discussions? I guess so.

Kind of sad really.

SteveH
Belgian
(12/03/2003; 15:59:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112775)
miscellany
- 9 tonnes WAG Gold has been reschuffled to...Vietnam (?) a rapid emerging Asian satelite.
- Saudi Arabia decided to open up for industrial investment and ...mining exploration.
- C.Powell warns Putin not to intervene in Georgia (pipeline-corridor) !
- HSBC sees a �/$ target of 1,35.
- Yuan will stealthly revaluate with +/- 30% against the US$.
- Trichet doesn't want to comment on the dollar.
- People of good will negociate on Israeli/Palestinian peace (Geneva) "without" interference of anyone from the quartet (examplary).
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 16:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112776)
China Reschedules Soybean Buying trip
snippit:

REUTERS UPDATE 3-China back on track for U.S. soy buying mission
December 03, 2003 15:31:48 (ET)

By K.T. Arasu

CHICAGO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - China has put back on track a trip to the United States to buy soybeans, which was abruptly canceled last month when a trade dispute with Washington broke out, a U.S. industry official said on Wednesday.

In a possible easing of tensions between the world's top and fifth-largest economies, Chinese soybean buyers have indicated they would visit Chicago in two weeks and meet with grain companies to possibly sign purchase contracts.

The news was cheered by grains traders, who rallied soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade in the hope that China, the world's top soy importer and the No. 1 market for U.S. soy, would continue its hefty purchases from the United States.

"It gave a psychological boost to the market," said grains analyst Charlie Sernatinger of brokerage O'Connor & Co.

Grains analyst Bill Nelson of A.G. Edwards said the visit would help "ease tensions between two major trading partners".

China however has yet to reschedule a visit by its wheat buyers to the United States that was also scrapped when Washington slapped import quotas on Chinese textiles.

Some U.S. officials have blamed job losses in the United States on the rapid rise of Chinese textile imports, claiming that China's currency was undervalued against the greenback.

G'lox:

GWB backing off the steel tarrifs eases some of the mounting trade tensions. Now let's get those Chinese undies back on the shelves.
R Powell
(12/03/2003; 16:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112777)
News
http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=7867 I got this from Caper at the neighbors
misetich
(12/03/2003; 16:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112778)
Reality Check: US Recruiters: Nov Jobs Another Modest Advance>
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

--Signs of Good, Not Spectacular, Holiday Retail Hiring
--Progress Described As Somewhat Bumpy
--The Reluctance To Hire Permanently Is Thawing
......................

Progress is seen as slow and bumpy, but most believe a turnaround
has occurred and many look forward to a much stronger 2004, they say.
....................
What's still in the way is an underlying reluctance to hire
permanently,
................
"We've not changed our view that things are much the same," said
John Bowmer, CEO of Adecco, the global staffing firm with a U.S. base in
Melville, Long Island.
..................
Linda Paulk, president of Snelling Personnel Services, a national
recruiter based in Dallas, sees a persistent reluctance by management to
hire people full-time.

She noted an increase in orders during November, but it was a bumpy
ride.
.....................
He described the improvement as "a quick thaw" rather than a
"roaring" rebound.
..................
Many nurses have become the primary wage earners for their families.
They no longer have the luxury of jumping to temporary agencies and
taking shifts when they can get them."

Gallagher estimates that roughly 23% of registered nurses employed
part-time in 2001 have returned to full-time work as their spouses lost
work or as they became nervous about general economic conditions.
........................
"Looks like not much has changed this month from last, except for a
few additional orders from retail and call centers," said Julie
Claggett, communications coordinator for Express Personnel Services, a
national firm based in Oklahoma City.
.................
"I'm feeling better going into 2004 then I did going into 2003," he
said. "Usually, these downturns last one year. We're in our third year
of this, so you've got to believe this industry is going to come back."
****************
Misetich

Across the country the "hope" is high - reality check says its going to be tough times ahead for the unemployed seeking jobs

The US jobless recovery continues

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
R Powell
(12/03/2003; 16:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112779)
Goldilox.....Soybeans and gold..
Thanks for the soybean news. I was hoping they would come back and counting on it as the USA is the only source (in quantity) of the beans that China has to have. They've been buying cotton and copper too and the last two weeks have seen huge corn export orders with "unknown" listed as their destination. Unless soybean sales abate (through price rationing?), we will literally run out before the South American crop is harvested next year.

And gold? Yes, and the point here is that China has vast needs which may only be filled by those who hold and are willing to sell the items needed. Where will China recycle their dollars? I believe that China is now receiving the majority of our exported trade deficit dollars. Gold is and has been running a yearly supply/demand deficit for a long time. If China decides to exchange paper for physical gold, who has enough to fill the order? Would these sources be willing to sell?

Does anyone know how much gold China is accumulating now or in the recent past? I have the notion that eventually China must unpeg its currency from the U.S. dollar. They'll not want to be holding huge amounts of dollar fiat after their own currency is free from a set exchange, right?
Thoughts?
Rich
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 16:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112780)
China Depeg and commodities
@ Rich

I truly believe that China's demand for commodities will hit harder than a trade war. When they trade US$ reserves for goods and commodities, they will drive some prices through the ceiling by overweighting the demand curve. They obviously want to reduce their US$ reserves (who wouldn't in this free fall), and what better way than to spend them. That way, no one accuses them of direct currency manipulation. Besides, in the long run, it helps the trade deficit, as well. I noticed the tarriff rumors began while the Chinese delegations were here talking to all sorts of companies about major purchases, i.e. Boeing, Chrysler, Deere, etc. Do some folks NOT want the trade deficit rebalanced? Maybe not the ones who need T-bills sold to foreign $ holders. How sad this whole imbalance has become.

Limits will probably be placed on many commodities (most especially gold), but under-the-counter transactions might start separating paper from physical in many markets beyond just gold. Until NO one wants US$ for their goods, there will be some price on things - even if it is discounted to cover the currency market "action".
Goldilox
(12/03/2003; 17:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112781)
YUAN
@Rich

Oh, and the YUAN has to be a huge arbitrage trade at some point. The question is WHEN? One cannot buy futures without a date of expiriation, and continuously rolling them over gets costly, as well.
Sprout
(12/03/2003; 17:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112782)
****$387.90*****
On to the subject of whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004,

We will NOT see SPOT at $500.00 in 2004!

AND WHY

Cuss he's going to jump right over $500.00 and miss it completely!
Smeagol
(12/03/2003; 18:20:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112783)
We musst give proper credit
The great Wizard says -
"You are atop the hill as "KING OF THE HILL" for the second straight day ! HANG IN THERE !" -
and we are sspeechless, yess, at being King AGAIN (capering) and very, very happy.
O, but Smeagol would not be in ssuch a lofty place unless Slingshot had not possted his guess firsst - he NAILED our guess, he did, even as we typed ours! So we had to guess again! (bows to Sir Slingshot)

S.
steady
(12/03/2003; 18:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112784)
the bottom the top in between steam a dream
some say a watched pot never boils, i say i watched pot teaches you about heat and boiling.
a pot does not erupt into full blown rolling boil, it bubbles it perks it even bursts once in a whoile beore the entire pot is boiling.
the currency specific fire balls that are perculating thru the financial sector derivates that target each company burning fireholes thru everything unjust and packed with lies (ny) ending up in the golden cladera that has shown signs of reaching the next stage after simmering and releasing steam, its in this never never land of dream where things arent as they seem, i must be living inside a dream. one where i can buy 74 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold a ratio so out of whak its obsured, or so ive been told , others say be bold hold gold, while others have placed there bets on a golden/silver star named the dinar, if so i hope i awake after ive cashed in my take...........
R Powell
(12/03/2003; 19:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112785)
Goldilox // Beans and gold continued..
Agree. I'm on the long side of most everything that China is now buying or is likely to buy in the near future. I have reasons to believe this will also include corn and perhaps silver, both of which China has been exporting in the past. The flip side is to short most of what China exports, like U.S. textile manufacturing. Jim Rogers has voiced this same opinion. He is a well known name so he gets the credit for this view even though many of us saw it coming.

So many of the reasons that the POG has been rising and will continue to rise also are directly applicable to most physical commodities. It's partly the currency depreciation. The POG can be used as a barometer for many things other than just the purchasing power of currency. Many economists view gold primarily as an indictor (usually contrary to what they're expecting, predicting or hoping for). Also, I've hear many justify opinions based on the POG's trend. It's amazing what they'll use the POG to try to prove! They'll probably change their tune later on to say that the rising POG was the cause (rather than just an indictor of conditions) of future economic misfortunes. But, it won't be $11.00 soybeans, $2.50 coffee or $1.50 cotton that caused the problems, right? No, it will be that $1200 gold that's to blame for all our problems! Gold will not answer the charges, never has. This may be quite a long term affair.

I do not trade the currency exchanges as I don't like the unseen risk, always present, imposed by the intriques of politics but rumor has it that both Buffett and Soros are short the dollar. Soros also claims to be long gold. I believe Buffett still holds at least 89 million ounces of physical silver in London. The Yuan may indeed be a force to be reckoned with in the future. If, as some speculate, the Yuan will not be backed by many dollar reserves in the future, well, what then? We shall see.

Does anyone (Townie?) have up to date information on government debt sales? After last month's dismal sales, I'm just wondering if current sales are finding buyers?
Rich

The Invisible Hand
(12/03/2003; 20:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112786)
The Solution?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/12/04/cneu04.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/portal/2003/12/04/ixportal.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=47795Tomorrow's London daily Telegraph (found on Drudge - sorry if this has been posted before)
SNIP
The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels.
==
FOA, where are you?
admin
(12/03/2003; 20:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112787)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

What does the richest man in Hong Kong have to do with gold?

Druid
(12/03/2003; 20:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112788)
$5Bln Tax Charge Hangs Over Yukos
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/12/03/001.htmlSnip

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2003. Page 1

$5Bln Tax Charge Hangs Over Yukos

By Catherine Belton
Staff Writer Yukos scrambled to keep its floundering $35 billion merger with Sibneft afloat on Tuesday, an uphill struggle made harder by a leaked Tax Ministry document saying it owed $5 billion in back taxes.

Group Menatep, Yukos' parent company, issued a statement Tuesday evening denying a Wall Street Journal report that it had agreed to cede control of Yukos to Roman Abramovich, Sibneft's aggressive owner, in a bid to save the merger.

"The deal to merge Yukos and Sibneft was completed in October this year. ... The agreement between core shareholders of Yukos and Sibneft ... remains in full legal force," the statement said. Under the terms of the merger, agreed to in April, Sibneft gets to choose the chairman of the board of directors for the new company, while core Yukos shareholders get to name the management team.

In its statement, however, Group Menatep did not rule out that the agreement could not be changed in the future.

"The core shareholders of Yukos think that such questions cannot be decided in backroom deals," the statement said. "All questions that would change the parameters of the deal will be discussed taking into account the interests of minority shareholders and will be publicly formulated."

Sibneft pulled out of the deal at the last minute Friday. A source close to Yukos has said the move was a Kremlin-backed bid to force the company's owners, who are reeling from a five-month legal assault, into handing over control to Abramovich and his partners, who are seen as more loyal to President Vladimir Putin. Two core Yukos shareholders, Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, are in jail on charges of fraud and tax evasion, and most of the rest have fled the country.


Druid: Man! "POLITICAL WILL" playing at theaters all over the world. Here are a couple of interesting quotes taken from an interesting read:

"Churchill had declared in 1939, " I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."

"In 1998, too, Russia was beyond the realm of econometrics, even of the computers in Greenwich"

These quotes were taken from the book "THE RISE AND FALL OF LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT WHEN GENIUS FAILED" Roger Lowenstein

It appears from my vantage point that President Putin wants all the major players(Central Banker, Finance Minister, Oil Tycoons) rowing in the same direction.


Paper Avalanche
(12/03/2003; 20:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112789)
A synopsis of Hubbert's Peak...
http://www.rense.com/general45/rune.htmInteresting article.

PA
eccentricventures
(12/03/2003; 21:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112790)
gold bull or dollar bear?
one of my fellow gold bugs, who is far more knowledgeable than me about economics, keeps saying so far this is still a dollar bear market more than a gold bull. i know all the underlying reasons for gold to rise, but is he right? is this just gold tracking the dollar now? seems to me gold started rising out of the pits before the dollar started sliding, but my memory may be false on this point. any thoughts?
21mabry
(12/03/2003; 21:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112791)
palladium
Palladium has not made a move yet,its way off its highs.MIGHT be a chance for profits there.21
steady
(12/03/2003; 21:23:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112792)
gold
Gata love keeping our eye on the golden ball.
goldquest
(12/03/2003; 22:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112793)
test
test
Operative
(12/03/2003; 22:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112794)
@ eccentricventures
Gold Bull? Dollar Bear?Will toss my two cents worth into replying to your question.
After reading a few thousand words with usually the author taking one side or the other of your question I have only been able to wrap my simple mind around the fact that both are right. I don't think it can be boiled down to a simple skins vs shirts game. The dollar has ample reasons for it's continued move down, and gold, after a 20 year beating has plenty of reasons to continue the upside trend, reasons other than the dollar.
mikal
(12/03/2003; 22:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112795)
@Invisible Hand
Thanks for the Telegraph link. The euro bankers seek to balance the concerns of their bosses with those of the laborers and politicians? Belgium must know more.
There seems no end to the intriguing news items here and the excellent work by the owners and volunteer staff in this alternative media.
Viva free press!
Lastly, billionaire George Soros committed to unseating this administration according to the Independent in Great Britain. How sincere could this reportedly expensive effort be if it were actually financing the socialists and various globalist interests?
Besides that, if he succeeds, it won't be without a lot of help from gravity, momentum and dizzying cyclic and centripetal circumstances, ad nauseum- gotta run!

Black Blade
(12/03/2003; 22:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112796)
Miners Cannot Supply Gold Market
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgl03.nsf/Current/80256D35003463C485256D39007A880C?OpenDocument
Snippit:

According to Steven Mathews, commodity strategist at Tudor Investment Corporation, the hedge fund, the gold market is so dramatically oversupplied that it has ceased to behave as a currency. Mathews said relative shortage of readily accessible stocks of a commodity allowed for speculative trading activity, a feature notably absent in the gold market. "If production stopped today, you would run out of soya beans in 2.39 days," he says; Zinc stocks extend to 57 days, nickel to 74 days and heating oil to 32 days. Gold comes in at a staggering 7,000 days. "From the perspective of someone monitoring fundamental events from day to day, gold is just not particularly compelling," said Mathews. "The possibility of fundamental analysis is impossible for gold�but the currency aspect is just so strong in this market so we trade it like a currency," he said.

Black Blade: A fairly interesting article but as usual there is some moron like Steven Mathews who is quoted about "huge central bank reserves". There are several fallacies that should be addressed here but I will only touch on a couple due to some other commitments I have right now. 1) Most of the gold "on the books" in central banks vaults (especially in the west) are either gone, loaned out (and will never be returned because it was sold), or committed to reserves by laws of various nations (in fact several central banks are activity accumulating gold to diversify reserves); 2) There are few if any qualitative or accurate audits of any such gold said to be in national central bank vaults; 4) few banks will sell gold reserves (especially in a rising market); 3) The largest holder of gold reserves is the United States (supposedly exists in Fort Knox Depository and at the West Point storage vault but has never been audited or allowed to be audited) and that gold will not be sold because it would be not only illegal but would take an act of congress and signed by the president to allow any such sales (this even applies to gold held in trust by the IMF). The fundamentals for gold are especially strong as less above ground gold per person exists today than at any time in recorded history and therefore is more rare than ever before. It will become even more rare as less will be mined for a number of reasons and the "easy pickins" are already plucked. Still, little exploration activity is underway even now as gold passes through $400 an ounce. Former used car salesmen types like Steven Mathews are more of an embarrassment for the investment community when they don't do their homework. I may revisit this issue again if time permits but I just browsed the article in MK's update page. Besides I will have something to say about the "smart money" and "investment partnerships" in the next couple of days as I have been doing some work lately as a consultant to some well heeled investors looking at alternative investments. For now just let me say � "get gold and silver now while you can"! As Mk Alluded to a couple of days ago, premiums on precious metals are going to rise soon and I may add some insight as to why, and why you and I are several steps ahead of the crowd already but time is running short for accumulation at still decent prices.

slingshot
(12/03/2003; 23:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112797)
Sir Smeagol
Now that takes the cake.

I truly enjoy these contest given by our Host. Read every entry. The contest is gamemanship at its best.
Wait too long and you miss your spot. With todays world, at any given time things could change drasticly affecting the POG. I find the entries of exurberance are countered with temperance and that is healthy in our education of the gold market. Our expectations are well founded, but our timing may be wanting.

Good Luck to All

Slingshot------------------<>
Black Blade
(12/03/2003; 23:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112798)
Gold through the roof, $400/oz may be the floor
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031202/markets_gold_rally_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Splurging on gold as part of broad dollar disinvestment, investors chased the precious metal above $400 an ounce this week and are hopeful that the long-time barrier will be a platform for further gains. Gold futures closed above $400 for the first time in almost eight years on Monday, and held the mark at the close again on Tuesday. Bulls do not look for it to pull back far below the historic psychological level, although profit taking and a bounce in the dollar are risks. "I would say it's very asymmetrical to the upside -- $380 to, I don't know, $500, over the next year," said a commodities analyst at a large hedge fund.

"It's desensitizing the level in terms of a psychological number and it's pushing us into a possible higher trading range," said Bernard Hunter, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "I don't think there is a lot of downside room with the dollar doing what it's doing," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "Four hundred is just a round number," he said, predicting gold would trade in a range of $385/390 to $410/$415 for a while. "The next $10-$15 in gold are going to be tough."

Gold could weather even severe ups and downs in the dollar, if investors see it as holding value against volatility in the currency markets. "We're talking about a structural change in the dollar's value more than anything else," Hunter said. "So whilst you are going to see some intra-day reaction, I think the market will always go back to their longer-term view on the currency and gold is going to react again in the short-term."

The gold rally is not broad based and experts noted that the purchasing power of an ounce of gold has stayed relatively constant from a global perspective. "What you are seeing is a global bull market in gold in which it will ultimately go up in terms of all currencies but it will not go up in terms of material items," said the analyst. "In other words, 1/10 of an ounce is still going to buy a barrel of oil, at the end of it."


Black Blade: $400 an ounce as a new floor price? Perhaps! Going higher in US dollar terms? Absolutely yes! Will there be occasional pullbacks? Likely so. But realize that the US dollar is going to get weaker and the "smart money" has got the point while the Lemmings are listening to the carnival barkers and Wall Street pitchmen for stocks and bonds. This is a long term (several years) bull market in precious metals and nothing will stop this freight train now.

slingshot
(12/03/2003; 23:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112799)
1/10 0z. of gold
If the selling price of the 1/10 oz of gold is now at $48.00 including premium and the POO at approx $30.00 My question is, as the POG rises and accelerates how many barrels of oil will the 1/10 oz buy.

# of oz. of silver to buy 1 oz of gold
# of oz. of gold to but the stock market

How many barrels of oil a 1/10 oz buys will be the new ratio.

If the Euro is pegged to gold. How many Euro's will it take?

How high can POO go? At what point will POO stabilise as gold continues to climb? If so, what is the impact?

Just a thought.

Slingshot--------------<>
slingshot
(12/04/2003; 00:04:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112800)
1/10 0z of gold
second thoughtIf a country who is mainly dependent on oil and has not thrown away its gold reserves emerge on top in the ecomomic sense. Even in hyperinflation?

Can not connect the dots.
Slingshot----------<>
Gandalf the White
(12/04/2003; 00:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112801)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
POG Contest UPDATE and the Revised Rules !
POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 00:10 (Denver time) THURSDAY 12/4/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)

---
The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" has been sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)
YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested a December �03 COMEX Contract POG Settlement Contest be started !

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize a German "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by a short remark on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, --- AND WHY !

<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX December 2003 Gold Contract (GC3Z) on the date of TUESDAY, the 9th of December, 2003. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MST) on SUNDAY, December 7th, 2003.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a few words on whether we will (or will not) see the price of SPOT Gold at $500. in 2004, AND WHY

===
Just in time for that last minute Xmas present !!
"COME ON IN" ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD. Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines" LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! The TIME is short on this CONTEST, so do not procrastinate !!!
<;-)
PS: IF I should happen to miss your Contest entry -- YELL!
TKS
slingshot
(12/04/2003; 02:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112802)
Midas Crusade
Gandalf and Omar finally caught up with the army of Goldbugs that now formed back into a line to fit the road before them. The River Epis provided a resource as to cleanse themslves from the dirt of travel and refill their casts with fresh water. The trees were a welcome sight after the journey across the Mozul.
The Army of the Goldbugs come to a hault upon a buff which from a distance, overlooked Hammerton.
Sir M.K.. Gandalf,Omar, Sir Black Blade, Lady Waverider and Cougar looked down on a fortified town. They could see the bridge entrances with their raise earthworks for defense. Hammerton was walled in its entirety but not as a castle for its swift rivers was more than any moat could accomplish.
As this band of warriors sat upon their horses they heard the words from Sir M.K.

"Let it begin"

Slingshot---------------<>
Dollar Bill
(12/04/2003; 04:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112803)
(:- I)

Brussels considers imposing currency controls
The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels
The document, drafted last month on the orders of Mr Solbes's director-general, Klaus Regling, concludes: "Should extremely disturbing capital movements endanger the operation of economic and monetary union, Article 59 EC provides for the possibility to adopt restrictive measures for a period not exceeding six months."

The move came as the euro hit highs against the US dollar, touching 1.2125 yesterday before closing at 1.2109. It has gained 42pc in less than two years.

The euro-zone has borne the brunt of the global realignment. The Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar, while Japan has capped the yen by buying US bonds.

Industry leaders in Germany and France say the euro has crossed the "pain threshold" and risks aborting the euro-zone's fragile recovery. The latest survey data shows a renewed fall in confidence among French consumers and German retailers.
Jean-Philippe Cotis, the OECD's chief economist, said further appreciation posed a "great danger" to the euro-zone.

It is widely assumed EU law guarantees the free movement of capital but, after combing through the treaties and court judgments, EU experts have concluded that this "absolute freedom" can be limited in an emergency.
The document is annexed to the Commission's 2003 EU Economic Review, released quietly last week. Some officials in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris believe the Bush administration is engaged in a "beggar-thy-neighbour" currency war.

Strong factions within the French and German governments want the European Central Bank to counter the "easy credit" policy of the US Federal Reserve with aggressive monetary expansion in Europe.

Faced with stubborn resistance from the anti-inflation hawks at the ECB, they are instead eyeing exchange rate policy as a means of imposing their will.

While capital controls are viewed as the "nuclear option" if all else fails, the collapsing dollar is rapidly bringing the issue to a head. A senior EU official told the Daily Telegraph that an exchange rate of 1.35 against the dollar is a likely trigger.

It is unclear where such a decision would leave Britain. While treaty law does not allow controls between EU states, any restrictions on dollar inflows into the euro-zone would create a legal nightmare and play havoc with the City of London.

Oliver Letwin, the shadow chancellor, said: "It is utterly risible for the EU to take a step back in time and pretend it can effectively control global capital markets."

The European Commission said there were no plans to impose exchange controls. "It's utter rubbish. The fact that we have carried out a study doesn't mean we are going to do it," said a spokesman.

Belgian
(12/04/2003; 04:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112804)
@T.I.H. (Telegraph article - Ambrose)
YESSSSSSSS, the dollar *** dreams *** about being able to force the EU in "agressively" expanding its monetary base !
Why are you calling FOA, when The "Transition" is "visibly" in process.

Yep, for the time being, the euro and associates, wish to let it happen *** ORDERLY *** !!! Watch how the euro + oil (gas) are nicely acting in concert.
Will the dollar's geo-stratego for oil-control work (ME + Caspian) ?

Let's watch carefully "if" the EU politicians leave the ECB's independance (euro-management) intact !
Watch for any change in HSBC's predictions.

To the rand-watchers : Isn't it amazing that such a big move happened in such a tiny small rand-currency market ?
What if they all run for the exit at the same time...or is there something else going on ? Rand decoupling from the dollar and clicking onto the euro ???
mas
(12/04/2003; 04:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112805)
OPEC
Almost fell out of my chair this morning when I heard OPEC want's to reevaluate it's bench mark prices in line with the drop in the dollar. AND that it would cut oil production accordingly to acheive this goal. Yeap you better leave it in the ground till it's worth more in what ever currency but the $.
So what happens today will tell which way it swings.
Can't believe the ECB would buckle with some old draft pulled out of no where, desperate times desperate measures I guess, from the dollar camp of course.
I mean if I get a discount on my oil price would I not take it, of course thank you!!! Weaker dollar less Euros for oil, that's simple. I guess everyone is now catching on huh?
And gold's just waiting as the pressure builds. Past 400 to never look back. But in other currencies thats the one to watch.
Good luck to all.
Mas
Boilermaker
(12/04/2003; 07:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112806)
OPEC Price Adjustment
As I noted two weeks ago 11/22, msg 112236, I expect OPEC will be resetting their price target to compensate for a declining US$. I think about a 20% increase to offset a comparable $ decline. Look for $35/bbl or more 1n 2004. It's possible they will announce a target in terms of the US$ Index.
Boilermaker
Belgian
(12/04/2003; 08:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112807)
Oil - euro- dollar -Gold
Russian resources are increasingly going for the euro. A result of the geopoltical encircling by the dollar.
It is Saudi Arabia, as OPEC's swing producer and BIS member, that wants "value" for Arabian oil.
Oil-dollar-euro-Gold are walking closely on each other's heels and want *The $-Unwinding-The �-Transition* to happen orderly. Expect ups and downs into the main evolving trend.

Stock market and interest rates need to support the dollar as to make things go "orderly".

At a certain point, the media will explain to the public what this mysterious "marking to market" of euro-Gold-reserves, is exactly needed (architected) for !
Moegold
(12/04/2003; 08:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112808)
OPEC Price adjustment to sliding dollar
This may be the trigger for China to rethink its currency peg to the dollar. The impact would be substantial.
admin
(12/04/2003; 08:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 112809)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 09:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112810)
Spot bouncing at $400+
@ Gandolf:

Did you drop the roo meat on the floor? I think you have to hold it up to make the boyz jump!!!!

:) G'lox
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 10:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112811)
Sorry, Honey, the wedding is off!
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/339151.cmssnippit:

Gold Sales Plunge Thanks to Soaring Prices
SWATI BHARADWAJ
TIMES NEWS NETWORK
[ THURSDAY, DECEMBER 04, 2003 01:13:21 PM ]
AHMEDABAD: Zooming gold prices �" hovering over the Rs 6,000 per 10 gms mark has resulted in the demand for the yellow metal plunging by over 75 per cent in the state in spite of the ongoing marriage season.

According to Ahmedabad-based bullion trader Ashok Soni, daily gold trading volumes at the Ahmedabad Bullion Market, which typically averaged 100-150 kgs, had dropped sharply and were currently hovering at around 25-30 kgs. The city is one of the major gold trading centres in the country.

According to estimates available, gold imports in to Mumbai too were down to around 200 kg to 250 kg a day against the normal daily buying levels of about 500 kg.

Jewelry sales too, which were riding high till recently on the back of good demand witnessed during this festive Diwali season, have plummeted by over 50 per cent, according to Nanubhai Soni, president, Sona Chandi Bazaar, Ahmedabad.

Jewellery sales have been constantly falling over the past 15-20 days since gold breached the $390 per ounce mark. The situation has worsened over the past week with hardly any takers for either gold coins, biscuits or jewellery,�? Nanubhai laments.

G'lox: The gold price surge against the dollar is less exhuberant in non-$ economies. Maybe Spot and Spike need some foreign language training??
steady
(12/04/2003; 10:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112812)
how id play or 43 -1
if i had a real fast computer, and could trade on hte shanghi gold exchange heres how id play.

id by 43 10 gram contracts for 430 grams well maybe more but this is the ratio!

id let the pog go up 1.00 in federal reserve notes.
and then id sell 42 10 gram contracts and keep one for free
then id go repete. of course ud have to factor in the transaction costs so u could get everything for free so gold would actually have to appreciate just a lil over 1.00 federal reserve note but thats how id play trade one dollar moves for 10 grams at a time. accumulating gold for free god and then of course after 4 succesful trips id take physical delivery of one fine ounce pluss a lil more of gold all for hitting a few keystrokes at the right time, this way of steady mining for the 21st century without breaking a sweat, getting dirty or even being exposed to the elements may become huge.
10 grams at a time accumulating gold.
Operative
(12/04/2003; 10:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112813)
Snow Says "strong Dollar Policy" Stands Firm
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAHONH2TND.htmlSnow Says "strong Dollar Policy" Stands Firm

Snip:
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary John Snow reiterated America's strong dollar policy on Thursday, staying silent on whether the U.S. government planned to intervene in response to the euro hitting another record high against the dollar this week.
"We have a strong dollar policy. I think the dollar - as other currencies' value - is best set in open, competitive currency markets," Snow said outside the White House after attending a bill-signing ceremony.
Asked whether the U.S. government planned to intervene, Snow replied: "I've told you what I can say about the dollar."

Comment: Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snnoowww. Got my snowboots on I does!
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 10:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112814)
Jobless Claims Rise
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/04/news/economy/jobless/index.htmsnippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Jobless claims rose in the United States last week, the government said Thursday, at a higher level than Wall Street forecasts, as the labor market continued its slow recovery from a long slump.

The Labor Department said 365,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 29, compared with a revised reading of 354,000 in the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 354,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com.

U.S. stock market futures gave up some earlier gains after the report, though they still pointed to a positive opening on Wall Street. Treasury bond prices were little changed.


Goldilox: On we trudge through the jobless recovery. It's interesting that so much more attention is paid to the layoff numbers than the rehire numbers. Maybe TPTB have already given up on rehire opportunities for bonafide bone pile members!!

The labor market has long been one of the weakest aspects of the U.S. economy. Even after the latest recession ended in November 2001, nearly a million jobs were lost during the longest stretch without job creation since World War II.
Great Albino Bat
(12/04/2003; 11:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112815)
Goldilox - India Times knocks gold....
It's a world-wide disease: the hatred (masking fear) of gold.

So the India Times comes in an tells us gold sales are "plunging": not slowing, or moderating, or even falling, but "PLUNGING". Wow! That's really serious, India Times; thanks for giving us this news!

The Indian bridegrooms are going to have to shell out more rupees for their gold, and give their brides a little less gold, in the future - or rather a LOT less gold. Because gold is going up for the foreseeable future.

No need to repeat the reasons.

The GAB
Melting Pot
(12/04/2003; 11:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112817)
(No Subject)
"We have a strong dollar policy. Asked whether the U.S. government planned to intervene, Snow replied: "I've told you what I can say about the dollar."

What is definition of "strong dollar policy" when TPTB fail to define the meaning? Fraud is the first thing that comes to mind. Alas but what could it be? For starters,
"official" treasury gold is valued at $42.222 per oz. That certainly provides illusion the dollar is strong currency. Think of the ramifications if dollar was r/devalued against gold as occurred 1933.

Gee the Snow man got a little short on the "strong dollar" question....."I've told you what I can say about the dollar." Hmmm, "what I can say!" How about that....a politician wearing a muffler for a mouth! Things really are different these days....



Zhisheng
(12/04/2003; 11:32:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112818)
Up into the Close
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Even though gold lost a bit on the day, it was a good finish.
Gandalf the White
(12/04/2003; 11:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112819)
Sir Goldilox ---
Goldilox (12/4/03; 11:18:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112816)
NEM Trading Halted?
===
IF SO -- most likely "NEWS" !
<;-)
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 11:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112820)
NEM Halted
@ Gandolf:

Haven't seen any news yet, but whatever it was, they're back online and rising like they just had a mainline injection of roo meat!
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 11:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112821)
DX - Au
check it out. Immediately after close, the Dx went red and gold clocked up.
misetich
(12/04/2003; 12:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 112822)
States Still in Crisis Despite Brighter Outlook
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=3940303Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Signs of rosier economic times ahead should not obscure the distress many U.S. states, in their worst crises since World War II, are still likely to experience during fiscal 2004, a report warned on Thursday.

"Even if you've got an uptick on the revenue side we really want to emphasize that it's still going to be difficult," said Scott Pattison, director of the National Association of State Budget Officers which prepared the report for the National Governors Association.

"Things went so far down that even (now that they are) going up a bit still things are pretty tough."
................
The national economy has finally shown signs of steaming ahead this year, and the NGA report said states' fiscal 2004 budgets assumed revenue growth of 5.1 percent over 2003 estimates. Most states began fiscal year 2004 on July 1.

But state general fund spending under fiscal 2004 budgets would increase only 0.2 percent compared to growth of 0.6 percent in general fund spending that states reported for fiscal 2003.

Compared to 21 states that reported negative budget growth in fiscal 2003, some 13 states enacted negative growth budgets this year, the report said.

But more than two-thirds of the states budgeted for spending to rise less than 5 percent in fiscal 2004, matching the more than two-thirds of states that reported actual expenditure growth of less than 5 percent in fiscal 2003.
*********************
Misetich

The Treasury and CB governors "pump of confidence" coupled with rah! rah ! newsheadlines is as suspected nothing but hot air.

Retail sales are disappointing
Job claims no are up
Challenger reported ANOTHER 97,000 are being laid off

...and deficits SOARING at all levels

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express




Great Albino Bat
(12/04/2003; 12:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112823)
Exchange Controls for the Euro? What about the Swiss precedent?

The Swiss had precisely the same problem back in the 70's, when the dollar was plunging and investors were switching into the "Swissie" for protection against devaluating dollars.

The Swiss said their economy was too small, to accept unlimited funds in exchange for Swiss Francs, so - they imposed a tax on Swiss Franc deposits, and as I recall the interest on deposits was very low. So they actively discouraged investment in Swiss Franc deposits. They did not want Swiss Franc holders, with significant amounts of Swissies, all over the world, period. (Did not want reserve currency status.)

Euro exchange controls = same situation, as the GAB sees it. Europe cannot, nor should it, accept unlimited amounts of depreciating dollars buying up its currency; even though Europe is large, still, the impact of unlimited acceptance of dollars would damage it. So, a tax on incoming dollars is not impossible.

Bottom line: Dollar reserve system is nearer its Time-Line End. NO SOLUTIONS for problems arising from this - only huge upheavals which will likely end in blood and tears around the world.

Buy gold today, while you still can.

The GAB

So, the Swiss epxerience may be repeated
Gandalf the White
(12/04/2003; 12:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112824)
TA TA TA -- COMEX paper data and a new "KING of the HILL" -- Sir Casey !!!
12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ02 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25

===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83
===
Ok -- all you procrastinators, you better put on your thinking hats, as the clock is now ticking !
I have let SPOT and SPIKE rest, after breaking the $400. level, and I am about ready to LET THEM LOOSE !
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(12/04/2003; 12:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112825)
I should add a significant fact:

During that period when the Swiss were charging a tax on deposits, they did accept all the dollars you would wish to send them, free of tax, if they were for PURCHASE OF GOLD.

Belgian: please translate that into the Euro situation.

Europe to tax dollars for deposits in Euros, but "NOT FOR PURCHASE OF GOLD"?

How does that fit into the plan of the upward floating of ECB reserves marked-to-market, if dollars cannot economically go into Euros, but easily flow into gold?

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(12/04/2003; 12:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112826)
WELCOME HOME GAB !!
The Hobbits missed your input !
Did you bring back the YELLOW ?
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(12/04/2003; 12:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112827)
Slingshot - about the Midas Crusade

You forgot to mention that The Great Albino Bat reconnoitered Hammerton in stealth night flight and brought back news to the Goldbug Camp regarding the weaknesses of the enemy.

The GAB

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/04/2003; 12:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112828)
Show your true color... celebrate the holiday season with gold!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

give the gift of gold
Stumped?
This year do what Santa's doing.
Give the gift of Gold.
The gift that keeps on giving year after year.
And....Order it Online!

Avoid the holiday rush.
Browse leisurely through our large selection
of high quality gold jewelry items, click on the perfect gift and
put the Ho! Ho! Ho! back in your Holiday Season.

Competitive Internet Pricing.
Fast, Free FedEx Delivery on All U.S. Orders over $200.

We know gold!
Find the same high standards of quality, attention to detail and
old-world service at USAGOLD-Jewelry that you have grown accustomed to
as a client on the brokerage side of the firm.

The Perfect Gift this Season!
 
Omega gold jewelry
Regal Omega Necklace w/ Diamond Slide

Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 14:23:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112829)
MarketWatch report
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BC8215D54%2DD5BC%2D4714%2DB5B5%2D2B1AE3021E34%7Dsnippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures fell Thursday for the first time in five sessions, but the losses were slight.

Shares of metals mining companies traded mainly lower, with key indexes for the sector down by as much as 3 percent.

February gold fell by 60 cents to close at $404.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had fallen as much as $4 an ounce Thursday, after gaining $12.40 an ounce over the previous four sessions.

"Some consolidation at these levels is to be expected," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. "But the gold market has been consistently providing the unexpected -- often surging ahead just when everyone is anticipating a correction or consolidation," he said.

Lundin said he wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens at this juncture. "While gold stock investors are worrying whether gold can hold these levels, the metal is hinting that it is ready to move forward once again," he said

G'lox:

This analyst agrees that the boyz just need to catch their breath! To $410 and beyond!
Belgian
(12/04/2003; 14:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 112830)
@Moegold
Not too fast, Sir ! It is impossible to plunge into the euro concept, and leave the dollar system, all at once !!!
China will certainly wait with any drastic move up until it feels that its oil-flow, risks to be threathened (hampered).
Russia is now using some Kyoto pressure as to speed up resources for euro.

The temporary trade-peace (steel tariffs) is a positive for the dollar (not the exch. rate but orderly support) and the EU (unity). China saved the steel problem, for the time being (steel-imports).

US steel will be subsidized if and when it can bring votes.

Point is that with an orderly dollar-decline, the twin deficits will not stop and reverse (grow less at best).

The stability and growth pact will compromise into a bit more growth for less stability as to cross the economic desert(-ification).

Watch and Follow the main trends.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/04/2003; 14:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112831)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold continues to hold above the $400 level. Could this be the new "floor price"? Maybe so. Early today (actually last night for those of us in the US), it was reported that The European Commission is examining the legal basis for 1970s-style exchange controls to stop the euro surging to destructive levels. The report was later denied but as we know, many times denial is a confirmation. Just as US Treasury Secretary stated he supports the "Strong Dollar Policy" after reversing his position once again after stating last month he favored a "weak dollar". Where does all this "competitive currency devaluation" (currency war) leave us? - Headed to a currency without government liability - gold and silver!

I may be gone tomorrow and over the weekend to do some consulting work for a group of investors. Curiously the well heeled and financially independent are looking away from grossly overvalued equities and "dead in the water" bonds and toward hard assets. Due to proprietary considerations I can't go into details of course but just consider this as a "heads up" to what the "smart money" is doing.


Jon H. Warner
Belgian
(12/04/2003; 15:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112832)
@GAB
The dollar is the hot patato passing from hand to hand. More dollars for proportionately less euro. Those dollar holders are being (neutrally) suggested to accumulate Gold as to ensure (hedge) their dollar holdings increasing in number but declining in worth. But we all wish that this happens "orderly". Make your choice between the competing currencies, paper gold and Physical Gold. Make your own bets in the paper gold contract market, operating under the dollar system or the chances of a Freemarket Physical only Gold market under a possible euro-regime, with the marking to market concept as to compensate for the ultimate dollar finale (dollars without reserve status).

See my previous posting about "orderly" transition and dollar decline.

Check Ambrose's (Telegraph) agenda and see through the continued euro (concept) bashing and trashing.

Simplier : Don't rush to the euro ALL AT ONCE ! Don't crash the dollar and its system, NOW ! Go Gold first, while you still can ! Follow the Giants (like Mr. Li).

The 1970 Swiss franc (and currency situation) has nothing to see with the evolving euro (ECB/BIS) of today !
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/04/2003; 15:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 112833)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


Well plans change fast in this business. I may be able to get the DMR out tomorrow after all unless plans change again (I won't know until early tomorrow morning for certain). However, I will be out for the weekend and possibly into early next week depending on how much progress is made - "Murphy's Law"? That seems to be a common theme these days. ;-)


Jon H. Warner
Cavan Man
(12/04/2003; 15:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 112834)
"Can't accept..".........That's rich isn't it?
US can't accept EU defence plan, says Powell
NATO urged to take greater role in Iraq
AFP, Brussels

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday that Washington could not accept EU defence plans which double up with NATO, while welcoming any proposals which boost Europe's military muscle.
Speaking to his NATO counterparts, he recalled that US President George W. Bush was committed to "a mutually-reinforcing relationship between NATO and the EU, grounded in the essential NATO-EU agreements, which underpin it.

NATO is a cold war relic. Let's see, where can we use that war material.....??

Max Rabbitz
(12/04/2003; 16:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112835)
Natural Gas Prices
http://intelligencepress.com/Black Blade, Before you run off for more adventures take a look at the exploding price of natural gas. Up four days running, with the biggest jump today. Winter futures now well over $6. Snow cover has increased rapidly the last few weeks and the early artic blasts came as a surprise to weatherforcasters. Were they counting on global warming? Looks more like an ice age coming. Get that wood chopped before the blizzards hit. Looks like a White Christmas.
Black Blade
(12/04/2003; 16:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112836)
@Max Rabbitz - NatGas
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=556
Andrew Weissman has a 3 part series on NatGas. He and others have been warning of the coming NG supply disaster as Federal lands remain off limits and drilling moratoriums rmain in effect. (see link above)

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(12/04/2003; 16:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112837)
NatGas Article - Part 2
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=557
More of Andrew Weissman's article. (see link)
Black Blade
(12/04/2003; 16:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112838)
NatGas Article - Part 3
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=558
The third part of the article. (see link)

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(12/04/2003; 16:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112839)
Series of NatGas and Energy Articles
http://www.ieca-us.com/
The link above has several articles on the growing energy crisis and rising costs. Of course much of it is discussion by politicians who are all talk and no action. So consistently rising energy costs are going to just be a way of life for most of us.

- Black Blade
Waverider
(12/04/2003; 17:23:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112840)
Li Ka-shing sets up HK gold trading group
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493709738"After spending millions of dollars developing modern technologies such as third generation telecommunications, Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest tycoon, is returning to a more basic business - gold, the principal store of wealth throughout history. To capitalise on a resurgence of global interest in the metal, Mr Li has set up a wholly owned gold trading company, Loco HK, in Hong Kong, one of Asia's biggest bullion markets."

Waverider: Speaking of where the smart $$ is going....
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 17:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112841)
Dueling NM
Oh Oh, I can see it now. LW and BB - Negro Modelos at ten paces.
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 17:50:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112842)
Sinclair on Bonds
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=1491&T_ARID=1492&cTID=0&cCat=&cSubCat=snippit:

Good news on the economy did not precipitate a rapid sell-off in bonds as we might have expected. Prices dipped on the release of the news only to work their way back up off the lows as short covering kicked in. The Greenspan Put was back in play.

Lately, however, the bond pit has seemingly taken notice of the action in the US dollar. From what I can tell, the thinking is now coming around to the notion that sooner rather than later the Fed is going to have no choice but to raise rates in order to stem the rapid fall in the dollar. With Australia's rate hike and Canada's refusal to cut, it appears these nations are attempting some responsible fiscal policy.

If the Fed refuses to hike, foreign bond holders must surely be cognizant of the fact that their assets are rapidly depreciating at a rate faster than the rate of return on the paper. It seems to me that the Fed has backed itself into a box with no way out.

The Fed cannot hike significantly for fear of derailing the "recovery" since the velocity of money will no doubt fall further as interest rates rise. Yet if the Fed fails to hike, the dollar will continue lower raising the specter of imported inflation from abroad as import prices begin to rise. Also, foreign bond holders may very well begin to unload U. S. paper in favor of Euro backed paper, Aussie backed paper or ABD paper (anything but the dollar).

If these holders unload, bond prices will fall further, raising long term interest rates regardless of Fed action or inaction. As long term interest rates rise, mortgage rates rise along with all those "cheap affordable" ARMs and the consequences related to that should be evident to everyone. Think foreclosures and a drop in consumer spending as rising monthly house payments crimp consumer's available cash.

I see nothing but serious trouble on the horizon and the storm clouds are gathering and becoming ominously dark in my estimation.

G'lox:

Nothing much new, just continuing confirmation of the trends.
Waverider
(12/04/2003; 17:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112843)
HK Li Ka-Shing/Gold
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031204/15/3gf3k.html"Tycoon Li Ka-shing has established a gold-trading company and platform called Loco HK, according to a legal notice by gold refiner and retailer RNA Holdings Ltd. Loco HK will be involved in refining, molding, wholesaling, and trading gold bullion and precious metals, as well as bullion financing and creating a gold-trading platform."

Waverider: Please excuse a naive question..but I take it this is a positive step for Gold...or could we be seeing more proxies such as Gold certicates, etc.?

Goldilox - not in this life...I'd never even attempt to take on Black Belt...err..Black Blade, besides, it'd be an honor to serve him an ice-cold NM on a Gold platter! ;o)
Black Blade
(12/04/2003; 17:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112844)
No Negra Modelo Tonight

I'm off to my Kung Fu martial arts class and some sparring. Pain pills and absorbine jr. are more likely than Negra. ;-) Actually I have some reports to work on tonight when I return but tomorrow is another day.

- Black Blade

off to the gym!
Waverider
(12/04/2003; 18:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112845)
Alas, poor Barrick. Hedges can't survive gold's rise
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031204/RREGU04/TPBusiness/TopStories"This week, Barrick officially pushed its hedging program down the mine shaft. Barrick's hedge book had been active for about 20 years, had generated about $2-billion (U.S.) in profit that would have otherwise been denied, and was touted as a sure-fire way to make a buck regardless of the gold price. If that weren't enough, the forward sales contracts were highly flexible. This allowed delivery to be deferred -- for years, if the company chose -- so that immediate production could be sold at the higher spot price. To top it off, Barrick, the anti-Christ as far the unhedged miners were concerned, argued forcibly, although not always convincingly, that hedging did not put downward pressure on prices. Au contraire, Mr. Munk would say; the practice "assisted in the evolution of a healthy gold price."

Why did Barrick lose religion so quickly?....

Waverider: No mention here of the Blanchard suit.
Smeagol
(12/04/2003; 18:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112846)
Passing the royal sscepter to Sir Casey
And the golden Hill-crown, and the royal robe. It was too big and heavy for us. Long Live Sir Casey, King of the Hill!(grin)

------

Finally, I get my coat, hat and walking-stick back!

F.B.
The Invisible Hand
(12/04/2003; 18:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112847)
The Daily Telegraph and FOA � at Belgian
The reason why I called upon FOA is that the bureaucrats of the EU Commission apparently have no grasp of FreeGold.
mikal
(12/04/2003; 18:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112848)
Vietnam
Consumption there and in the developing world has been rising fast and may even surpass that of the "developed" industrialized nations if exporting jobs continues.
A Vietnam news article this week mentioned that reasons for holding gold include- Japan will cease to insure many commercial bank deposits in 2004. Likely it will affect a vast segment of Nippon accountholders if the "ceiling" on state insurance is lowered or eliminated as expected.
Japan's government acting with foresight? It appears so. But really fits into the natural, accelerating flow of world events in metals and commodities, equities, bonds, currencies, credit(debt), etc. As militarized political systems need checks and balances as businesses do to survive, change is inevitable. Leading to less regulation and taxes that can't be paid anyway. It's no mere coincidence that the undulating waves of history are seen in the alternative media and by approaching the current "establishment" status quo with a painter's mind where impressions can represent the future despite missing some brushstrokes. That's the "big picture" they need to assume greater responsibilty for their future, especially if it grows from voter disenchantment with real vs "reported" cost-of-living, standard of living, economic statistics, body counts, or unacceptably compromised government or investment or corporate management.

Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 19:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112849)
Ashikaga Nationalized
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/EL05Dh01.htmlsnippit:

Ripples from a Japanese bank collapse
By Hussain Khan
TOKYO - The Japanese government's November 30 decision to nationalize the insolvent Ashikaga banking group has surprised investors who had expected a Resona-style bailout - in which shareholders weren't forced to take a haircut for the mess. The move means that Ashikaga shareholders' capital will be wiped out, leaving them with nothing, and the government will take 100 percent of the equity in the regional lender.

Since May 17 when the government decided, in bailing out Japan's fifth largest bank, not to compel shareholders to assume responsibility for the Resona debacle, some foreign hedge funds had picked up regional Japanese bank shares in expectation of similar government relief measures. The lack of relief measures in this case leaves investors in a quandary about future government moves in event of further collapses.

Since the Resona bailout, the Japanese stock market had been in a kind of moral hazard session, in which the stocks of companies in shaky financial shape have thus tended to rise more markedly. The banking sector has particularly outperformed.
This all takes place against a backdrop of national banking disaster, with the system only stabilizing somewhat for the larger banks over the last year. According to the International Monetary Fund, the average ratio of nonperforming assets to capital and reserves, at 65.7 percent in March 2001, rose to 83.4 percent in 2002. Nonperforming loans, estimated at $US355 billion at the start of this year, could well be twice that, or perhaps as much as 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Goldilox:

More "underperforming" loans and more foreclosures - this time by the government. No bailout to avoid a US-style S&L scandal. Add a large bank's shareholders to the infamous bonepile!
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 19:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112850)
China to establish four coastal strategic oil reserves
http://fpeng.peopledaily.com.cn/200312/04/eng20031204_129705.shtmlsnippit:

A high-level personage with the National Development and Reform Commission noted recently that China will build four coastal strategic oil reserves including Dayawan in Guangdong Province. To this, it is learnt from the Guangdong provincial Development and Reform Commission that the first batch of two oil bases have been determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, but the proposed locations, Dayawan and Zhanjiang in Guangdong Province have not yet been approved. The personage with the Guangdong provincial Development and Reform Commission said that they will continue to make efforts in the hope that they can be included into the second batch and will get down to the establishment upon approval.

The first batch determined: Huangdao in Shandong Province and Dalian

Jiang Weixin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out at the International Seminar on Energy Strategy and Reform held by the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) that in order to deal with emergency, China will gradually establish and improve oil reserve system. For this, a national office of oil reserve has been established in the National Development and Reform Commission dedicated to affairs on the oil reserve of the country.
Another high-level personage with the National Development and Reform Commission said that facing China's growing oil consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Office of Oil Reserve are looking for strategic oil reserves, that is to allocate six billion yuan on oil reserves in four domestic ports.

Goldilox: Stocking up in the face of global risks and shortages???
Dollar Bill
(12/04/2003; 20:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112851)
*>*
From your link Sir Black Blade..I wonder..

I foresee another possibility that I believe could heavily impact, if not mitigate, the rising natural gas consumption demand of the newer Combustion Turbine (CT) based Power Generators. When the countries of the world that are awash in natural gas discover, as some already have, that their here-to-fore useless natural gas resource can, by the Fisher Tropshc process, be converted to a easily marketable light distillate fuel, (call it diesel for our purposes,) and be put on a ship and be transported anywhere in the world, this new fuel supply availabiliy will skew the arguments you make about operation beyond the tipping point on natural gas. The vast majority of the newer and more efficient CT's that are producing the demand for the natural gas for power production are either, already capable of, or can be quickly and economically converted to be, just as able to produce the same amount of power with diesel fuel. Since the F-T diesel contains no sulphur, environtimental objections to the use of this fuel disappear, as well. F-T diesel is claimed to be more energy efficient on a "well to tank" or "well to wheel" basis than liquifying the same gas, transporting it to limited destinations, and then regassifying it for transport to the final user via pipeline. If the suppliers of the F-T diesel are smart operators, they will keep the price of delivered diesel below that of the price of delivered natural gas, from whatever source, and the people who are generating power in a competitive market, will naturally select the most cost effective fuel, and I believe that F-T diesel will become a major player in that world. This might even give some of the older gas fired "fuel hogs" as Ms. Keller so aptly describes them, some new life, as they benefit from this newer low cost fuel supply, if it materalizes as I envision it. This assumes, of course, that the diesel can be economically delivered to any given power plant, but a great many are sited at or near to locations where ship or barge transport is possible in our country. Enough, I postulate, to put a dent in the natural gas demand in the future. Time will tell.
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 20:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112852)
The DOW has actually gone NOWHERE this year.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/1204.htmlsnippit:

Until approximately March 2003, the Dow was falling in both [US and AU] currencies with a mini rally here and there. However since March, the US and the Oz dollar parted ways. The Dow appears to be rallying in US dollars, but is doing nothing in OZ dollars. It is stuck in a range and forming a channel. So while the Dow looks very rosy when measured in the terms of the US dollar, the picture is far from rosy when measured in OZ dollars. All it is really doing is adjusting itself due to the high level of inflation. The one huge problem with a channel formation is that it can break to the downside or upside devastatingly fast.

All these rallies are illusionary in nature. The Dow is actually losing value and silently crashing when priced in other currencies. Until it starts to rally in other currencies, Dow 10,000 or even 11,000 becomes meaningless if the US dollar carries on following. After all, when the Argentinean peso collapsed and Gold shot in price over 300%, did any of you care? No, because the net effect was 0. Think of the US dollar as the Argentinean peso of tomorrow and the only way to protect yourself against such blatant and evil inflation is with Gold and Silver bullion.

G'lox:
touquoy
(12/04/2003; 20:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 112853)
***420.00***
In 2004 the price of gold will easily see $500 and probably go well beyond this figure.
The reasons are numerous but to name one would be to suggest a falling US exchange rate will ultimately force a large interest rate increase which will precipitate a property crisis in the USA, which will spread around the world, a severe recession will ensue which will hammer down the share market in the USA first, then spread around the world which will cause a stampede to precious metal shares and physical metal.
specie-man
(12/04/2003; 20:21:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112854)
Oh silver bars, where are you ?
http://www.9news.com/storyfull.aspx?storyid=21672See link.
specie-man
(12/04/2003; 20:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112855)
****** $394.6******
In 2004 you will be able to buy as many US dollars as you like for just 50 milligrams of gold each. So 625 US dollars will cost you one troy ounce of gold.
Because I said so.
Goldilox
(12/04/2003; 20:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112856)
The Bottom of the Barrel
http://www.monbiot.com/dsp_article.cfm?article_id=625Who I am | Introduction | Contact | Careers Advice
"Tell people something they know already and they will thank you for it. Tell them something new and they will hate you for it."
The Age of Consent: a manifesto for a new world order is now published - see the Books section for details.
environment / The Bottom of the Barrel
snippit:

Oil is running out, but no one wants to talk about it.

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 2nd December 2003


The oil industry is buzzing. On Thursday, the government approved the development of the biggest deposit discovered in British territory for at least 10 years. Everywhere we are told that this is a "huge" find, which dispels the idea that North Sea oil is in terminal decline. You begin to recognise how serious the human predicament has become when you discover that this "huge" new field will supply the world with oil for five and a quarter days.

Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.

Oil itself won't disappear, but extracting what remains is becoming ever more difficult and expensive. The discovery of new reserves peaked in the 1960s. Every year, we use four times as much oil as we find. All the big strikes appear to have been made long ago: the 400 million barrels in the new North Sea field would have been considered piffling in the 1970s. Our future supplies depend on the discovery of small new deposits and the better exploitation of big old ones. No one with expertise in the field is in any doubt that the global production of oil will peak before long.

The only question is how long. The most optimistic projections are the ones produced by the US Department of Energy, which claims that this will not take place until 2037. But the US energy information agency has admitted that the government's figures have been fudged: it has based its projections for oil supply on the projections for oil demand, perhaps in order not to sow panic in the financial markets. Other analysts are less sanguine. The petroleum geologist Colin Campbell calculates that global extraction will peak before 2010. In August the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes told New Scientist that he was "99 per cent confident" that the date of maximum global production will be 2004. Even if the optimists are correct, we will be scraping the oil barrel within the lifetimes of most of those who are middle-aged today.

The supply of oil will decline, but global demand will not. Today we will burn 76 million barrels; by 2020 we will be using 112 million barrels a day, after which projected demand accelarates. If supply declines and demand grows, we soon encounter something with which the people of the advanced industrial economies are unfamiliar: shortage. The price of oil will go through the roof.


As the price rises, the sectors which are now almost wholly dependent on crude oil - principally transport and farming - will be forced to contract. Given that climate change caused by burning oil is cooking the planet, this might appear to be a good thing. The problem is that our lives have become hard-wired to the oil economy. Our sprawling suburbs are impossible to service without cars. High oil prices mean high food prices: much of the world's growing population will go hungry. These problems will be exacerbated by the direct connection between the price of oil and the rate of unemployment. The last five recessions in the US were all preceded by a rise in the oil price.

Goldilox:

This sounds awfully sensationalist, but I've encountered these estimates and predictions before. BB, is this guy on target, or blowing smoke up our nether regions? I don't hear any sales pitches for alternatives here, so that motivation isn't obvious.
Clink!
(12/04/2003; 21:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112857)
Those bars @ specie-man
What really caught my eye in the article was :-

If the silver isn't reclaimed in five more years, the state will sell it and invest the money for the owner in the event he or she ever shows up.

The state needs to walk the Trail !

C!
Ten Bears
(12/04/2003; 21:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112858)
Why the dollar price of gold is increasing
http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/damnlies.htm"An expose on the real rate of inflation in America" Adam Hamilton.. worth a re-read.

>>"You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." � George Bernard Shaw

>>"The net result of all the hedonic information I looked at was to understate prices, sometimes dramatically."

>>"By using the mathematical equivalent of tea leaves and goat bones, the BLS statisticians have created a surreal new reality where the "true quality adjusted" price of different goods may be "computed." This practice creates a huge disconnect with reality."

>> "So what is real rate of inflation in the US? It probably approximates growth in total money supply, or M3. Since 1959, M3 has grown at a frightening compound annual rate of 7.9%, while the CPI has "only" indicated 4.4% compound annual inflation"

>>"Even anti-free market and pro-socialism economist John Maynard Keynes recognized the true causes of inflation. He said, "Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency"
Dollar Bill
(12/04/2003; 21:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112859)
(No Subject)
http://pup.princeton.edu/titles/7121.html"World oil production may have peaked in the year 2000. Production in 2001 and 2002 was lower
Several different petroleum geologists are now using Hubbert's methods to analyze world oil production. One oddity may be repeating itself: the center of the best-fitting smooth curve to U.S. production falls around 1974, but the single year of greatest production was 1970. Similarly, the smoothed mathematical peak of world production will probably be in 2004, but 2000 may stand as the highest single year.

As the surplus production capacity is used up, the good news on oil prices is that OPEC will no longer be in charge. The bad news is that nobody will be in charge.

Of the world's 60 oilfields now producing more than 100,000 barrels per day, only two have been discovered in the last 25 years."
So much for the liquified natural gas solution. Temporary.

Why in the world didnt we see this coming and build our society with this in mind? Because fiat encourages stupid behaviours. We are bound to collapse this world economy.
We just make too mamy mistakes to not.
I am only 51, the AARP says I have a 50-50 shot at making it to 84. (once your past 50, the life expectancy is 84 for a man). SO, 34 more years, Am I going to just watch 34 more years of Disney vacations on the credit cards of my neighbors? It really is time to think about where I want to be living. The world will change dramatically way before 34 years go by. Here on the forum we are day to day watching it. Imagine 20 30 years from now.
seagull
(12/04/2003; 21:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112860)
****$398.4****
It is my opinion that the action of the POG in recent weeks has indicated that TPTB are losing the battle to keep it in check. They have held the ball under the water for so long now, that when she blows, it will be explosive to say the least. Yes, we will see $500 in 2004 - and it will be pretty to watch!
Dollar Bill
(12/04/2003; 21:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112861)
*>*
The Fed added $14 Billion in repurchase agreements today Dec 4th 2003. This action upped the repo pool a bit to $35.39 Billion.

The repo hypothesis can best be seen by examining the very few times that the DOW fell below its 30-day moving average in the data set charted from November 2002.

In mid-June 2003 the DOW dipped below its 30-day moving average as a result of the smooth removal of pool funds. This can be seen in the down trend of the repo pool's own 30-day ma. As soon as the DOW dipped about 50 points below its 30-day ma the Fed re-adjusted the repo pool to "catch" the DOW and redirect it on a new upwards trajectory. The Fed then chose to establish a less steep growth line from the very high "Iraq War Rally" phase. The committee of DOW managers, the "Working Group" saw that too steep a rise was not credible so they decided that the freely traded DOW should be altered.
..In mid-August the electrical grid power failure occurred and the DOW again fell but the Fed immediately responded with aggressive repo adds designed to lift the DOW back to its "appropriate" up moving trend line. Thereafter the Fed needed less of the repo fuel to levitate the DOW so it slightly reduced the pool's 30-day moving average level.
..They are "steering" the DOW by carefully adjusting the repo pool aggregate total of un expired funds, mindful that their daily actions should be masked by complex expiration schedules.
..This explains why there is so little volatility in the DOW during wartime, a period of historically turbulent market forces.
..The longer the pattern of government intervention is observed the clearer it becomes.

The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 70% in the last 12 months. It now trades at - 97 times this year's earnings. Yahoo trades at a P/E of 112; Amazon, trades at 93 times earnings.
MK
(12/04/2003; 22:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112862)
Black Blade, GAB
Deductive logic.

If
Euro capped
Yen capped
Yuan capped
Pound likely to follow
Swissie likely to follow

Where will big money go as dollar excesses continue unabated? Why buy capped euros? Capped yen? Capped yuan? Soon to be capped pound and SF?

The Currency Trap!

By a deductive process, there is only one logical alternative not attendant to the whims of the state. All of which makes the news from Europe today on capping the euro that much more interesting for once and future gold owners.

That news may be much bigger in the scheme of things for gold than meets the eye at first glance.

dummyANI,
Buy a gold.....sell a currency?!
Agingfast
(12/04/2003; 23:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112863)
@ Dollar Bill re: Repo Pool Changes
In your opinion, was the Fed's repo pool originated -- and are frequent changes made in the total amount of repos -- for the sole purpose of affecting the level of the US stock market? Or are there other factors that also affect the total amount of repos?
steady
(12/04/2003; 23:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112864)
where my eye sees gold going
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0312/feature3/images/ft_hdr.3.jpgmy numbers where off today that was based on a 400 federal reserve notes for one ounce , and i forgot the currency play in there too, guess ill have to do a take two on that thought to and refine it, but whats interesting is that as gold goes higher that spread on a dollar will increase instead of being 43-1 it will become larger and the silver gold ratio will be divergent going lower both where once forced upon the paralle linear function of paper money now both are diverging away from that line like a falling knife dicing that ole linear paper funtion line into thirds swhoose goes the gold and silver express to... to.. to....... welll the picture in the link says it all.
Gandalf the White
(12/04/2003; 23:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112865)
Pleading to Sir Steady !!
steady (12/4/03; 23:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112864)
where my eye --
===
Sir Steady
MAY I please buy you a few CAPITAL LETTERS and periods...
Do you want to make an old man's eyes useless ?
Thanks
<;-)
Goldendome
(12/04/2003; 23:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112866)
Steady--The ratio, please!
OK, Sir Steady--My Royal English interpretation of your latest is escapin me by a long shot, comprende??

Ok, again, FIAT Dollahs, are backed by what?? Guesses??

Well, now, based upon your cerabellic (Sp) esposulations, I am prepared tomorrow to sell the Gold-- buy the Silver...IS that the Story?? Basically, that as a percentage Silver will outperform Gold? Yee-haw!!!! Hi-Ho Silver Away!!! I am ready buddy, cann't lift it now, but heh, it's a weightin that don't a matter, "He ain't heavy; he's my Silver."

Pass by the Obscurity, please sir, give us the Gold/silver ratio by June 2004-please. Lest, I know how much green to dribble forth into the silver platter...
Waverider
(12/05/2003; 00:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112868)
$$$$$ 399.30 $$$$$
Will we see Spot clear the $500.00 high jump in 2004? Certainly...but not ONLY because Sir Gandalf has been feeding him prime roo meat...We know the US$X is in a three-wave correction (I would say just starting into the third wave) - we're seeing divergence b/t the US$ and POG, not to mention (literally) all the fundamentals that we read here daily in the DMR! Thank you Sir MK for hosting another competition, and thank you Sir Gandalf for your work in making them so much fun! PS - don't think we've seen the last of the $300's quite yet - just my intuition!
Belgian
(12/05/2003; 01:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112869)
@TIH
During many travels, I've encountered many,...many wise men (women) under mango trees or village market places. They know MUCH more about the world as it really is than the millions of richly paid political administrators in their comfortable offices !
Over and out due to PC repairs (bugbears).
Waverider
(12/05/2003; 02:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112870)
Lack Of "Dehedging" Could Hurt Gold In 2004
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031205/15/3ggai.html"...the practice, commonly known as "dehedging", and widely credited with fueling the nearly-three-year-old rally in the bullion market, looks set to take a back seat in 2004, many leading analysts say. Not surprisingly, Australia's ANZ Bank thus says the consensus gold price forecast among analysts for 2004 is now US$365 a troy ounce, about 9% below current levels. The key question for gold going into 2004 is whether, "other things being equal, funds will be willing to retain their long positions knowing that the impact of dehedging on prices is set to fade rapidly," said Frederic Lasserre, chief commodities strategist with Societe Generale.

While gold may face pressure in 2004 if speculative support dwindles, in the case of silver, the lack of consumer demand could keep prices in check, analysts said. There is a potentially ominous sign for the part-precious, part-industrial metal."

Waverider: Notice that these articles are published on a Friday after a nice run in the PM's - it's part of the psychological lead-in for the big hit - I wouldn't be suprised to see TPTB push POG back to the low $390's today.
Waverider
(12/05/2003; 02:59:40 MDT - Msg ID: 112871)
Chinese residents welcome gold trade
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-12/05/content_287746.htm"A resident in Chengdu city of southwestern Sichuan province bought five ounces of gold this week in the Chengdu branch of the Merchants Bank of China at the price of 16,647.5 yuan (US$2,000), becoming the first investor to try physical gold trade in China. Chinese people have traditionally had the tradition of hoarding gold as a way of securing savings against disasters, natural or man-made. Shanghai was the largest gold trade center in the Far East in the 1930s and 1940s. But gold trade was abolished with the founding of new China in 1949. In the past five decades, nevertheless, the gold market was under a government monopoly with gold consumption focused on jewelry or industrial use in China. Total gold consumption is at a low level as compared with other nations in the world. In 2002, Per-capita gold consumption in China was only 0.16 grams, far lower than 1.42 grams in the United States and the world's average of 0.7 grams.

A recent questionnaire by the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center in 10 major cities in China showed 70 per cent of respondents said that they would invest in the gold trade if they had money and over 20 percent of securities investors would transfer part of their capital to gold trade. Experts predicted that nearly 7.5 million investors will try the gold trade while continuing the securities trade in the future. Calculating that each one will invest 10,000 yuan (about US$1,200) of capital, the trade will attract 75 billion yuan (some US$9 billion) of funds in total."
Black Blade
(12/05/2003; 04:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112872)
Barrick Gold's Plight!
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/temp/AppelExcerpt.pdf
Snippit:

When I delved into Barrick's most recent financial statement I may have found the answer. Their hedge book is already saddled with $1.213 billion of accumulated unrealized losses due to the rising gold price. This figure is from their September 30, 2003 quarterly report, and is based upon a gold price of $385. With gold presently trading at $403 this figure is now about $1240 billion. Next, according to their report there is an onerous provision in all of their master trading agreements that their growing unrealized hedging losses are causing to seriously pressure them. It is that, "Barrick must maintain a minimum consolidated net worth of at least $US2 billion-currently it is US$3.4 billion" (remember, this assumes only a $1.213 billion unrealized loss). If Barrick violates this ever-present clause they may be forced to either somehow repay the gold that they owe or to suffer other consequences.

By Barrick's own account on September 30, their consolidated net worth was US$3.4 billion. As of December 4, it has likely been reduced to approach $3.12 billion, by their unrealized hedge losses alone. Further, if gold continues to rise in price, and to Barrick's detriment enters a period of sharp price appreciation, Barrick may find itself with its back against the proverbial "wall". In this event, they may witness their approximate $1.12 billion cushion ($3.12 billion less the $2 billion minimum requirement) quickly evaporate and may come face to face with their counter-parties who may demand the immediate repayment of their gold. I believe that this is the likely reason for the recent frequent statements emanating from the company. They are afraid that their hedge book might explode in their faces! Even their 87 million ounces of gold in the ground won't satisfy their bankers! Barrick won't be capable of producing this gold fast enough as their bankers may demand immediate, physical gold!


Black Blade: As I suspected and discussed in the past. I became rather unpopular at Mineweb.com for taking this position a couple of years ago. Ah, vindication at last!
Socrates964
(12/05/2003; 05:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112873)
Black Blade
Have I understood you correctly here?

You seem to be suggesting that an $18 move in the gold price has caused $3.4-3.12bn = $280m of hedge book losses. (Although you also suggest that it's only $40m).

Questions:

Which is the right figure?

Can we extrapolate in linear fashion from this? - If so, the obvious inference is that every $1 move in POG pushes their hedge book $15 into the red, but that it doesn't actually push net worth below the $2bn mark until $480. Is my reasoning correct?
Goldilox
(12/05/2003; 05:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112874)
China Spot Gold Ends Slightly Up On Speculative Buying
http://www.goldnewsweekly.com/headlines.asp?id=i4413319938934767680Shanghai, Dec. 5 (Dow Jones) - Spot gold traded on the Shanghai Gold
Exchange closed slightly higher Friday, pushed up by speculative buying
shortly before the market closed.
For most of the day, both grades of bullion were confined in tight ranges
as international spot gold dangled at the either side of $402 a troy ounce
during Asian trading hours.
The benchmark gold bullion of 99.95% purity ended at 106.95 yuan
($1=CNY8.28) a gram, or $401.75/oz, up CNY0.02/g from Thursday's CNY106.93/g.
Gold bullion of 99.99% purity ended at CNY107.46/g, or $403.67/oz, up
CNY0.19/g from Thursday's CNY107.27/g.
Total turnover rose to 1,680 kilograms from 1,609 kg Thursday.
A trader at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China in Shanghai attributed
gold's uneventful trade both overseas and in Shanghai to the U.S. dollar's
quiet performance in the currency market.
Gold and dollar movements are closely tied, via a negative correlation.
China's gold market is off-limits to foreign investors.
The following are the closing prices and trading volume on the Shanghai
Gold Exchange:
(Units are in Chinese yuan per gram.)

High Low Close Change From Turnover Change From
Prev. Day in Kg Prev. Day in Kg
Au99.95 106.95 106.70 106.95 +0.02 1,558 +61
Au99.99 107.50 107.00 107.46 +0.19 122 +10

Total Turnover: 1,680 kg, or 179.4 million yuan
Socrates964
(12/05/2003; 05:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112875)
Oops!
Should read:

If so, the obvious inference is that every $1 move in POG pushes their hedge book $15 MILLION into the red, but that it doesn't actually push net worth below the $2bn mark until $480.
makcumka
(12/05/2003; 06:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112876)
*****402.3*****
The POG will cross the $500 in 2004. Reasons? Have you read your latest "News ans Views"? It's all in there. Thanks, CPM.
Dollar Bill
(12/05/2003; 06:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112877)
*>*
And Wednesday from Bloomberg, quoting ECB council member Ernst Welteke: "On the impact if the euro climbed to $1.20 or $1.25: �At some stage companies that export to the dollar region can of course reach a pain threshold. But only a seventh of German exports go to this region. �A lot of companies say that we have hedged ourselves for the time being through swaps. At the moment, the euro's exchange rate is moving in a neutral range. An abrupt drop in the dollar could of course have consequences for the global economy and therefore for us as well. I don't think that will happen.�"

He does not think that will happen. He must have confidence in the orchestration involving global financial players.

That comment is why I dont think gold will hit 500$ this year.
****397****

Dollar Bill
(12/05/2003; 07:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112878)
*>*............
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=353342&cftoken=%2099894749πd=2878Sir Ageing Fast, I regret to say I again forgot the qoute marks, leaving an impression that the comments were mine.
The implication of the author was that it did indeed play the role of market guidance..effectively.
This link will put you to the comments, and just a short ways down, will bring you to the graph.
Quite revealing.
Jing Zu
(12/05/2003; 08:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112879)
The $ dropping!
Wow! Just dropped off the chart! Something is going on?
Jing Zu
(12/05/2003; 08:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112880)
Our Gold is Soaring!
And of course in the trying times we sometimes make the correct decision to have our gold in our hands....

Going up, up, up!!!
Agingfast
(12/05/2003; 09:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112881)
Dollar Bill re: Repo Pool Conspiracy Theory
Thanks for the link. However, the Fed's repo pool has been around a long, long time and there are many factors that influence the frequent changes in the total amount of repos - and I don't believe that propping up the US stock market is one of them. In commenting on the use of repos my 1965 edition (yeah, I was around back then) of "The Federal Reserve System, Purposes and Functions" caries the following comment on page 191: "The Federal Reserve System makes repurchase arrangements available in periods of temporary credit stringency to help meet market needs for reserve funds and for credit when dealer inventories of Government securities are unusually large." So, with respect to that last item, you can expect frequent, large, upward surges in repos as our profligate federal government continues to flood the market with huge new debt offerings. Dealers temporarily sell some of their existing securities to the Fed to raise funds to help pay for the new issues until they can unload them on the salivating public.
misetich
(12/05/2003; 09:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112882)
MAHENDRA -
www.mahendraprophecy.comSnip:
Mon, 1 Dec 2003 08:05:28 -0500

Dear Friends,

During the last week, gold crossed the $400 mark once again but settled just below it. Metal stocks were going up like there will be no tomorrow. I am happy to see the current bull run in gold stocks and gold prices because this is what I saw a way back. It is like the fulfilment of a dream. But do not take me wrongly; fulfilment does not mean that the bull-run is over.



GOLD:

Currently, gold is sitting at $398, just bordering $400 and not crossing over to the other side. The feeling of gold traders is why the gold is not quickly jumping over to the other side. The worry for the short traders and hedgers is why the gold is not quickly coming down.



However, gold will not move in the way that investors/buyers or hedgers think: Gold will move where Jupiter takes it.



Currently, I see Jupiter holding the hand of a baby (gold). The baby is crawling and learning how to walk. Jupiter will surely take the baby to the other side (400 level) and will not let go of the baby's hand. Jupiter wants to train the baby and therefore will not leave him because he is still young.

Mahendra Sharma

********************
Misetich

In view of today's uptick in Gold - Kudos go to MAHENDRA

His track record has been very very good

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express


Goldilox
(12/05/2003; 09:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112883)
Near New Highs
$406.5 - Anyone notice we're nearing new highs? More roo meat!
admin
(12/05/2003; 09:30:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112884)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Hey, Gandalf -- wizard of wizards: Check out the ancient ratios between various items discussed under 'Notable & Quotable'. Useful, important trading information implied therein.
Goldilox
(12/05/2003; 09:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112885)
Kudos
@ Misitech:

The real kudos go to the believers who are buying and pushing the price up. Like Sinclair says, "Put your money where your mouth is!"
CoBra(too)
(12/05/2003; 10:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 112886)
Something's Got to Give!
... The last military global superpower - the US - is losing its economic base, fast. For how long can a superpower last without the means to support its superpower status?

How should I know? It took the Roman Empire several centuries to cave in. In todays case it may happen a lot faster and that's what is really scary. How to deal with a cornered beast, even if decaying. It's still a very dangerous and possibly lethal creature. A creature, still capable of wreaking havoc among their would be slayers - the rest of the world. The rest of the world, feeling the US dollar seignorage was an obstacle for too long - an obstacle, which has cost too much and for too long for all other would be competitors.

The last few years have proven beyond doubt, that the US $ hegemonial reserve status has been over(t)ly abused and added to the pain of too many. Repercussions will be effected to curb its influence and dominance ... and it has already started.

The upheavals to overcome an "archaic" and unfair system will be reverberate throughout the globe and will not be serene.

How to protect yourself from the fallout will be crucial not only to your financial survival - and the best insurance you can have will again be to hold to the only true value proven by history - GOLD! cb2
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 10:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 112887)
Goldilox: China "Spot Gold"...

The Chinese are inveterate gamblers, they just love gambling. Check out Las Vegas for this.

This "Spot Gold" in Shanghai appears to be nothing of the sort. The only concern of "Spot Gold" in Shanghai is to make a profit on the price, and has nothing at all to do with taking home some gold, which is the essential point of gold: to OWN IT.

In other words, Shanghai Exchange is only providing a new gambling game, this one whether or not gold goes up or down in price. You don't get to take the gold home, any more than you get to take the winning horse home from the race track.

Black Blade or MK or Randy: Correct me if I am wrong on this. It is important for all of us to understand the implications of gold trading in Shanghai. I understand it is only paper trading, not "take home rights"!

The GAB
steady
(12/05/2003; 10:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 112888)
bummer! no 43-1
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0312/feature3/images/zm_zoomin.3.2.jpgChina's gold market is off-limits to foreign investors.

so i guess ill have to wait till 2008 when i go to the olympics, to find me a mainland china citizen who will let me use there identity to trade on the shangi exchange, in return for some of the golden profits.

darnit.

oh my god ...steady typed a post with no errors, nice capital letters and even punctuation marks, yes in deed we sure do live in changig times........hahahahahahaaaaaaa

gold: the black hole of the financial world.

see link!
Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 10:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112889)
WOWSERS SIR M. K. !!
" 100 camels, 200 cows, 1,000 sheep, 200 silk dresses, 1,000 gold coins or 10,000 silver coins. "
===
I think that I would be taking the 10K silver coins, IF Sir Rich does not beat me to them !
<;-}
PS: I now see that you have a little competition in China.
Mr. Li is trying to catch up with you !
PSS: JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 10:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112890)
SORRY Sir GAB !!
The Shanghai Exchange deals in the REAL THING !!!!
<;-)
seeker
(12/05/2003; 10:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 112891)
GOLD TO TOP $450 SAYS GOLDMAN SACHS
From Bloomberg
THE PRICE OF GOLD SURGING THIS
YEAR TO A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH.
AND THE GAINS MAY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT YEAR AS WELL.
ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS, THE
PRICE OF GOLD COULD TOP $450 AN
OUNCE.
A LEVEL WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE
1988.
AND GOLDMAN SAYS INVESTORS
COULD SEE PRICES THAT HIGH
WITHIN A YEAR.
THE FIRM ALSO SAYS THAT THE
WEAKER DOLLAR AND WORRIES ABOUT
THE U.S. BUDGET AND TRADE
DEFICITS ARE BOOSTING THE
ATTRACTION OF GOLD AS A HAVEN.
AND ACCORDING TO GOLDMAN SACHS,
GOLD PRICES ARE ALSO BEING
HELPED BY THE REDUCTION IN THE
AMOUNT OF METAL SOLD BY
PRODUCERS BEFORE IT IS ACTUALLY
MINED.



.....nuf said.
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 10:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112892)
Waverider: the "Dehedging" Threat....you quoted earlier
This story on the the implications of de-hedging for a weakening in the gold price in 2004, carried by Dow Jones Newswires, is another attempt at mind manipulation anti-gold.

Hedging was not going to keep the price of gold down forever. The consequences were predicted when it was being done, mindlessly, by the world's mining industry.

Now the consequences are here. The dehedging is taking place, and for some mines it may be an impossible task: say Barrick, in deep doo-doo.

It's not hedging or dehedging that drives the long-run price of gold, nor will these practices destroy the role of GOLD as the only vehicle for the preservation of savings (along with silver, perhaps).

It's the vast, unprecedented expansion of credit and trash money available all around the world, STUPID!

Agreed, these silly stories can set the tone for another useless attempt to throw gold back.

Now if the GAB was on the other side, he would recommend using the available gold ammo to defend the $430/oz "trench", and not waste ammo on defending $400 any longer. A fall-back, in other words.

Let's wait and see.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 10:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112893)
It's the author of the "Dehedging Threat" article I am calling

"STUPID!"

Not Waverider, of course.

GAB
steady
(12/05/2003; 10:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112894)
ouch, can i sue for whiplash.
see thats what irks me, we here all this promotion carnival barking about the impact of the china exchange yet no one has said how it operates or how to trade it or well i guess for me it dont matter anymore as im barred from entering that marketplace due to my place of birth on this planet. Typical surface explanations about a market that may or may not have an impact upon gold. i wish i knew .

can cpm get me a monkey bar? ya kow the ones being sold in china i'd realy like one. guess ill have to call ya up and see
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 10:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112895)
Gandalf the White: Shanghai Exchange deals in "real thing"

No one would be happier to be wrong in this case than the GAB, Sir Gandalf.

Are you quite sure? Do you by any chance have a link to the hard facts?

The GAB read an article that expressed a different sense: clearly, paper gold trading.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 10:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112896)
steady, bingo!!

"Gold, the black hole of the financial world." (Steady)

Very good! Memorable phrase, Sir!

The GAB
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/05/2003; 10:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 112897)
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Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 11:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112898)
As you requested Sir GAB ! <;-)
http://www.sge.sh/web/show_col.asp?cid=20Sir GAB
I believer that the above LINK should convince you of the TRUTH! This is the English version !
IF you have additional doubts --- please see the MAIN page at this LINK
http://www.sge.sh/redirect.asp?locale=1033
My contact in HK (Sir Felix the Cat) provided me the opportunity to become a registered member of the SGE when it started, BUT I failed to take advantage then --- MAYBE you and I should think about this ?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 11:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112899)
MORE info for Sir GAB !
Categories of Membership
1. Financial membership: conduct its own business or act as agent and other approved business;
2. General membership: conduct its own business or act as agent;
3. Principal membership: conduct its own self business.

Relative Charges
Membership Fee & Annual Fee:
SGE draws up relevant membership fee and annual fee in accordance with distinct member categories, rights and obligation: 1. financial membership: membership fee is RMB800,000yuan and annual fee is RMB50,000yuan; 2. general membership: membership fee is RMB500,000yuan and annual fee is RMB40,000yuan; 3. self-managing membership: membership fee is RMB300,000yuan, annual fee is RMB30,000yuan.

Transaction Procedure Fee
Transaction Procedure fee of SGE is set temporarily 0.06%.
Transportation Fee and Stock Fee: Related charges (including transportation fee and insurance fee, etc.) of transportation of real gold under the delivery application of members is taken based on volume of real delivery gold. In addition, assigned warehouses charge fees under the regulations of SGE.

Trading Manner
During the early period of the operation of SGE, its transaction tool is spot transaction. SGE follows the principle of "price priority, time priority" in making deal and employs the transaction manner of free quotation, computer matching, centralized settlement and delivery. In addition, its members can choose either trade on the spot or distant trade.

Species and Price
SGE employs normalized transaction and the gold used for transaction should meet the standard regulated by SGE. At present stage, SGE conducts transaction of the following two types: Au99.99 and Au99.95. The standard weights of bullion, gold bar and gold coin are 50gram, 100gram, 1 kilogram and 3 kilogram respectively. The unit of quotation is RMB yuan/gram. The smallest transaction unit of bullion is kilogram and the fewest delivery amount is 6 kilograms.
===
<;-)
Zhisheng
(12/05/2003; 11:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112900)
Up into the Close.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Good ending to the week: high for the week and the year at $405.80. February futures at $407.30.
Great Albino Bat
(12/05/2003; 11:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112901)
Sir Gandalf: re Shanghai Gold Exchange

I stand corrected, and happy to acknowledge my error.

This is indeed very positive for gold.

The close into a multi-year high, for the week end, appears to me to indicate that the Gold Cartel is either giving up resistance to higher prices, or waiting for the market sentiment to express the idea that "gold has gotten ahead of itself and is overbought", at which time they will once again throw all available weight against further rises.

In any case, the Cartel has lost the war, and resistance to higher prices will only be rearguard actions.

Awesome!

The GAB
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/05/2003; 12:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112902)
Hard assets... Easy access!! Delivered to your door.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

A Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

TownCrier
(12/05/2003; 12:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112903)
Everything you ever wanted to know about USAGOLD but were afraid to ask...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.htmlMeeting the needs of our clientele for 30 years. Friendly, knowledgeable service.

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Goldilox
(12/05/2003; 13:03:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112904)
Santa Claus rally
Now I know why they call it a "Santa Claus rally". All the stock quotes are in RED!!!

. . .with some gold stocks dressed in green for Christmas color effect!

:>) Goldilox
Cavan Man
(12/05/2003; 13:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 112905)
POG @ $406.77
What's not to like?
Goldilox
(12/05/2003; 13:07:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112906)
Dx 89.08
Unless the BOJ or PPT jump to rescue, the Dx is in a freefall to 88+.
Waverider
(12/05/2003; 13:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112908)
GAB
I knew you meant the author of the article, but thank you for the clarification...those were my thoughts too as I read it in the wee hours of the morning. It really is amazing that any author who esteems to even a modicum of credibility would print that without giving due consideration to all variables affecting the Gold market - mind you, they do have an agenda! I honestly thought that Gold would take a hit today (Friday after a run-up) but am pleasantly suprised to see how wrong my inutuition was! Cheers GAB and it's nice to see you back here again.

Waverider
Rimh
(12/05/2003; 13:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112909)
****** 413.0 ******
Yes the price of gold will surpass $500 in 2004 as the US deficits continue to grow, the US dollar's value will continue to shrink, US citizens will catch on that gold is a great alternative to preserve wealth and their neighbors around the globe will continue to accumulate gold as well. The smart money has already spoken, and the message is getting out: get gold now while its still dirt cheap!
Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 14:03:04 MDT - Msg ID: 112910)
TA TA TA --- The NEW "KING OF THE HILL" is Sir Mudr !!!!
COMEX data for FRIDAY 12/5/03 This is the last data before entry DEADLINE !NOW everyone can make their PROGNOSTICATIONS !!
<;-)
===
12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25


12/5/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $406.8 low $400.0 SETTLE $406.4
CHANGE $3.1 Vol = 304 Yesterday's OI = 2,456

===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83

12/5/03 GCD04 (Feb �04) HIGH $407.5 low $400.0 SETTLE $407.3
CHANGE $3.1 Vol 42,589 Yesterday's OI = 193.726 DTE = 82
===
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/05/2003; 14:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112912)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold ends the week higher and holds above the $400 level once again.

Jon H. Warner
Black Blade
(12/05/2003; 14:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112913)
Socrates964 - usagold.com msg#: 112873

I only quoted the article. However, in 2000 we found out that at an average of $340 an ounce gold, Barrick's hedgebook was near "break even". Now with gold at $406 an ounce with about 16 million ounces sold forward, the company is on the brink of failure should gold rise much further because the banks will likely call in for a return of their gold. It ain't coming back anytime soon and this is a secular (not cyclical) bull market that will run for several years. No wonder hedgebook architect and former CEO Randall Oliphant got his walking papers. There are a lot of scared managers at Barrick and for good reason.

- Black Blade
contrarian
(12/05/2003; 14:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112914)
****410.2****
I think the game's changes and the contrived two-month cycle is dead--gold is converting into currency.
Jing Zu
(12/05/2003; 15:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112915)
What a day!
Hey ya'll,

Thanks for being here! What a wonderful investment. I just pulled out an invoice from March of 2002 that showed I paid $290/oz for some of those there African Deer looking coins.. Wow! $406.76/oz

All because of my decisions and CPM being there.. My wife and I have more security against these desperate and (probably already here) trying times..

Thank you all....

..... the land of Havilah, where there is gold. And the gold of that land is good:..... Gen.2:11&12 KJV

Not to get religious on anyone here. I just thought it to be an appropriate and interesting verse..You see, this land was next to (if not in) the Garden of Eden, so it says�. I hope that no one is troubled by this I will stop now. I sure would like to know where that place is so that maybe they could start looking for some more "good" gold for me to buy with this fiat that hurts me to hold. But of course I would purchase it through:

"USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals"
Safe Harbor for the Gold INVESTOR since 1973

Thanks, CPM for this Forum!

Great Day for Gold!.
Magister Aurelius
(12/05/2003; 15:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112916)
*****$408.3*****
Don't take it to the bank! Gold will smash the $500 level in 2004. The United States has to deal with the enormous deficits and hideously low savings among citizens. Interest rates will have to be slowly ratcheted up by the Fed to cover the bond market and prevent general financial panic. Gold will rise in this scenario, but not by enormous swings, but by a gentle undulation steadily upward. Geopolitical tensions will also contribute to a higher gold price. Look for China to accumulate gold and play a neutrality stance while it builds more relationships with the rest of Asia. This will be in response to a shift in tensions. Lacking a nuclear bomb in Iran, the Middle East will settle to a low simmer as Iraq stabilizes (Just take a look at the Oxford University poll recently done of Iraqi citizens). Trade and political differences will split the United States and Europe. The two blocs will be the United States and a few allies including Britain, and the other will be the Franco-German alliance that may even include Russia. A trade war is looming, followed by a possible shooting war between the two blocs. Get gold and cover your assets.
Jing Zu
(12/05/2003; 15:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 112917)
****407.70*****
****************

Will gold reach $500/oz in 2004, and why?

Gold will for sure make it to $500/oz next year. I believe higher. maybe I am a little optimistic? The reason stands in the fact that you cannot keep the HM (heavenly metal) down�Its been here from the beginning and will obviously be here till the end.

Of course I would like to see the price of an ounce of gold @ $500.00 by this years end. The way the FR Notes are falling, it just could happen. This would be an interesting way to end the year�
Toolie
(12/05/2003; 15:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112918)
Finally, a successful business model for US manufacturing
http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2003/12/04/rtr1169835.html Snip:DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. said Thursday it would spend $240 million to consolidate North American production of its Ford Focus car in Michigan, transferring work from a Mexican plant.
.....
State officials said Ford would eventually spend a total of $583 million at the Focus plant and the adjacent Michigan Truck factory that produces sport utility vehicles. The state gave Ford $48.8 million in tax breaks in return for the plant spending.

Comment: Finally, a successful business model for US manufacturing. Engineer your product in Europe. Lobby the federal government for changes in Medicare that ease the burden of your pension fund & accelerated depreciation for capitol equipment. Import cut-rate Engineers from India to do product modifications for the American market. Lobby for the removal of steel tariffs. Avail yourself of the starvation prices that equipment makers now offer & the spiraling $ exchange rates. Then demand a 9% tax rebate from the state for retooling. As long as the big 3 (2?) can keep this confluence of trends in place, there is no stopping a powerful manufacturing rebound (I'm being sarcastic here).

The above said, this news is very welcome to those of us that put equipment in these plants. DCX is also building an engine plant locally. It has been a long dry-spell. From my point of view, employment numbers (at least locally) will show improvement by spring. Gold may stop for a breath then, as all the "timed for the election" stimulus kicks in. $500 by next year? You bet, but at this point, I expect a spring/summer pause. Gold money in �08? Could be, if I'm not mistaken there are no capitol gains taxes that year.


CoBra(too)
(12/05/2003; 15:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112919)
New Closing High for Spot at 406!
For the move that is, and that's an 8 year high!

Pretty impressive action this week as every "BOP" was countered by physical buying. Bodes well for the future as the advance was very orderly and if I may call it "selfcorrecting"!

Could get interesting from here on out, as potentially the advance may take up some steam.

Have a great weekend all - cb2

PS: @ MK - One Ski Ralhves is back in an impressive way on "Birds of Prey"! Hurray!
Lothar of the Hill People
(12/05/2003; 15:33:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112920)
**** $404.6 ******
Only the lure of a golden reward lures Lothar to the Great Hall from the safety and serenity of the hidden ancestrial home of the Hill People.

Lothar sought the wisdom of many soothsayers among the Hill people. But alas, of SPOT in 2004 there is only confusion. Even the holiest oracle, the entrails of the Great Albino bat, reveals twists and turns and uncertainly until a glimmer at the end.

Lothar can only conclude that the path of SPOT in the early year will be convolved and uncertain, that $500 will be fleetingly brushed but not firmly grasped until near the end.

I am Lothar of the Hill People.

Fare ye well.
Goldendome
(12/05/2003; 16:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112921)
Iraq debt a concern for the U.S. !!!
You folks notice today?...that the Commander and Chief of the Save the Whales campaign, located in Crawford, Texas,'sent a whale from the past (former Treasury Sec. under George the First, James Baker) to Iraq, for to restructure Iraqee debt. To paraphrase George the Second's words: The Iraquee people should not have their futures mortgaged by their current debt accumulated under past malfeasing rulers!!

Hey George, how 'bout a little bit of that debt compassion for we poor souls living in this country- of the accumulating debts of past and current malfeasors?? Perhaps you-all are not that concerned about us-all having to repay it? Just keep printin up those Rooseyvelt Dollahs by the trillions and woe-la, the debt she a disapperin in the confitti, ehh?


---Oouhh, she a cold one; We all goin suffer now!!!
Time For GOLD
(12/05/2003; 16:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112922)
**** $415.9 ******
A few of the many reasons gold will surpass $500 in 2004:
-Falling US Dollar exacerbated by twin (Trade / Federal) deficits
-Real rate of interest has been near zero for several years
-Money supply has increased over 100% the past 10 years
-Commodity bull market fueld by expanding Asian / world economies
-Rising energy prices (oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline)
-Reversal of miner hedges (most recently Barrick), end of gold leasing, diminshing supply
-Gold production costs rising in local currencies / selling in US dollars resuting in sharply declining profits (i.e., South Africa, etc.) and closure of marginal profit producing mines
-There has been a sharp increase of savings throughout Asia held in gold
-Euro currency as well as currencies of commodity exporting nations (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada) more attractive than USDollar

Survivor
(12/05/2003; 16:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112923)
Paper Documentation of Gold Purchases


A few days ago I made the comment that that the only paper I've encountered in a gold transaction was the fiat used for the trade.

But, I notice occasional references to receipts and other documentation by other members of this round table.

I'm curious to know if there are states and/or countries that require paper documentation of physical gold trades. Perhaps my paper-free experience has been a happy coincidence of the places I happened to have lived.

(I realize that any transaction in the USA over $10,000 requires documentation. Where USA residents are concerned, this question applies only to trades of less than $10,000.)

Thanks in advance for any replies.

A golden Weekend to all.

- Survivor



Ag Mountain
(12/05/2003; 17:35:57 MDT - Msg ID: 112924)
Survivor, gold documents
Have you ever bought $5,000 of lumber at the lumberyard? Or even just $50?

It's hard to get wood without paper. Invoices, receipts, billing and whatnot. Frankly, having the bills are convenient for my records, and why should gold be any different?
Boilermaker
(12/05/2003; 17:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112925)
Stephen Roach- Morgan Stanley
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlStephen Roach's commentary linked above was seen at Le Metropole Cafe. He is one of the few mainstream economists who sees the big picture and knows that a big change is coming. Steve doesn't talk about gold but he clearly describes the huge imbalances that exist and must be corrected. He always seems to stop short of the obvious defensive measures that are suggested by his analysis.

TGIF and bottoms up!

Boilermaker
balzac
(12/05/2003; 17:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 112926)
CONTEST
My Guess

*****410.50*****

MY reason: The American public has awakened to the
best investment of the decade and the scramble is beginning.

Balzac
Toolie
(12/05/2003; 18:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112927)
*****$408.8*****
We will see $500 gold in 2004, provided that we don't blink. Loss of confidence in the dollar at home and abroad is the culprit. The increase in price inflation becomes undeniable by June. In September, when the fed introduces "scratch and win" dollars, in an effort to entice the Asians to scratch away our debt, this loss of confidence causes India, S. Africa & Brazil to introduce a bimetallic backed currency.
Gandalf the White
(12/05/2003; 18:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112928)
TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- UPDATE !!
POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately 18:30 (Denver time) FRIDAY 12/5/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
KEEP those Guesses coming !
<;-)



slingshot
(12/05/2003; 19:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112929)
Great Albino Bat
Request second flyover of Hammerton on Sunday.;0)

TIA.
Slingshot----------<>
steady
(12/05/2003; 19:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 112930)
how i did it.
http://www.rense.com/submissions/goldfinger1.jpgjust in case you where wondering, this is how i took the pictures i posted, notice how gold is incorporated into the craft, helps neutralized the black hole effect when coming and going, in fact it is the prefered vehicle used in the of transporting thoughts and ideas from one side to the other and not only that but many ecoites use it to for there sorjunes to uransus and back. breif As it can go back and forth between the fiat world and the new non fiat world developing behind the black holes, the craft can transport over 1000 400 oz bars at a time over to the good side. Where an everincreasing number of ideas are emerging from and unfettering the minds of this planet to understand the simple and simpistic concept of fiat script vs honest money, gold and silver. to understand a simple ratio, can the masses of this planet do it? Can they? Hu thats what im asking or will they be allowed to before its to late, to get any significant amount before paying up more for what they dont all ready not have.
anyone want a spin......
Toolie
(12/05/2003; 19:23:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112931)
Steady
Whoever is driving that thing is just asking to be jacked.
Toolie
(12/05/2003; 19:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112932)
Cancun marked the end of dollar-reserve expansion.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20031205-115054-1264r.htm

Snip: SAO PAULO, Brazil, Dec. 5 (UPI) -- So far, it looks like Brazil's president is getting along swimmingly in the Middle East, even if it means sinking future ties with the United States.
On a seemingly innocuous note, with two countries down on his five-nation Middle East tour, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has signed lightweight accords with Syria and Lebanon that deal with tourism and trade and other issues. But that doesn't even begin to measure his real effect.
Lula's aspirations for improving ties between the Middle East and Brazil, as well as all of South America, were manifest in suggesting the two regions hold a leaders' summit sometime next year to discuss their collective economic futures.
�..

Lula appears willing to risk U.S. ire during his trip in hopes of establishing alternate trade ties with more willing partners like Syria and Lebanon, the latest stop on the Brazilian leader's tour. Next it's on to the United Arab Emirates, then Egypt, where he will also meet with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, sure to score him more points in Arab eyes; and finally Libya, a stop that will surely raise eyebrows and tempers in Washington.
In Tripoli, he will meet with Moammar Gadhafi and likely discuss how Brazil can tap into Libya's oil reserves -- the eight largest in the world -- now that U.N. trade restrictions against them have been lifted.

Comment: Any guesses as to what might back a India, Brazil, South Africa common currency?
Gold is
(12/05/2003; 20:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112933)
****$415.0****
Yes I believe POG will reach $500 next year. Our economy is
in bad shape. All fiat curencies fall eventually. This U.S.
economy has been doing very well for quite a while based on
nothing but our good credit. Well our credit is not so good
anymore. And growing every day. All things baised on nothing
eventually return to their begining.IMHO The truth comes out. Gold is truth. Gold is real.

I am a recent lurker to this forum. I have learned much in
a short while. I have had oppertunity to aquire some P.M.'s
and learn alot about economies, money and comodities. Thank
you all. I realise this is a gold forum, but what is the scoop on silver. How did silver fall from 1:15.5 to 1:74,
what are opinions on the chances of a major rebound. How does silver stack up as a store of value, wealth.
Thank's again, Gold is going to rise to it's rightfull place in time.
Gold is real, get more,is I will. Gold is
Houston
(12/05/2003; 20:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112934)
International Travelers and gold
A few comments to travelers to Ireland. We stayed there over Thanksgiving Week, which was wonderful. On the West Coast we even traveled through a hamlet called Money Gold! If you want to use your USA type phone card in just about any phone in the country to access the USA dial 00-800-222-55-288. Then dial your USA toll free "800" phone number, then your card number and finally your USA phone number. Using the 3.47 cents/minute for domestic USA minutes they cost about 6 units per minute from Ireland to the USA.

Referencing Survivor (12/5/03; 16:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 112923)
Paper Documentation of Gold Purchases and $10,000+ purchases reminds me of the requirement of reporting sums of US currency exceeding that amount. On our return from Ireland I asked a supervisor of Customs at BWI airport regarding bringing in or taking out of the States US gold eagles. How is, say, 200 US one-ounce eagles (face value of $10,000) treated, does it need to be reported? The answer I got was no. If 201 one-ounce eagles were imported or exported that would need to be reported. I always wondered about that but never saw an answer in print on any forum.
Goldendome
(12/05/2003; 20:30:42 MDT - Msg ID: 112935)
Bear Wedgie *!!*
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmNow, I'm not the biggest on technical analysis, BUT if you want to see a pathetic bear market rising wedge, click over and look at Tim Woods work (link above). In the context of the Dow charts since "99, this whole rally put into that context, really looks limp, lost, and doomed.
Dollar Bill
(12/05/2003; 21:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 112936)
*>*
Sir Toolie, I am glad you posted as it is interesting to watch lulu.
Hard to imagine what syria has to offer brazil.
terrorist free zone status perhaps?
What in the world does syria export, um economically speaking that is....
Hopeing for some saudi loans?
Arent they barely solvent themselves? lula is like malaysias ex prime minister. Wanting a different reserve country, but not realizeing that it wont help his country.
With the us /imf boys extending loans in spite of loans to brazil, would another reserve country do any better for brazil?
If anyone has a clue as to how this might help Brazil, please add that to your post.
Dollar Bill
(12/05/2003; 22:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112937)
*>*
Sir Agingfast, Doug Nolan has talked about repo's, and I am rereading your post to learn. Feel free to post more if you choose too about repo's.
You mentioned there are other reasons they could be used.
I do believe I have read Doug talking about trying to understand repo's even more. And I would like to learn.
I am thinking you are more accurate than the Metropole cafe comments. This forum is a great classroom and an ideal seat for viewing this struggle.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/05/2003; 22:07:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112938)
Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence. USAGOLD-CPM is your friend in the business.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Toolie
(12/05/2003; 22:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112939)
@ Dollar Bill
http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/sitc3-3d/er760.htmI get the impression that Lula is most interested in retaining the sovereignty that FTAA would remove. FTAA would have required privatization and intellectual property protection programs. Brazil is unwilling to give up the ability to regulate many of its industries. At the same time, it would have allowed the US to subsidize our agriculture, to the detriment of Brazils�. It is not hard for me to imagine that the leader of any country would want retain local ownership of important industries and not open them up to powerful dollars in large quantities to cherry pick the nations productive sectors.

As for another reserve currency benefiting Brazil. My reserve is in metals. They seem to be doing better than dollars at the moment. I was surprised to find at the above link that Syria exported $3.2 bln. of crude oil in the year 2000.

The common currency that I mentioned is my speculation. There was talk some time ago of Brazil, Argentina and others developing one. A common currency strikes me a logical component of a trade bloc. I'll continue to watch for news along these lines as I enjoy watching it too. Please do the same.
Runner
(12/06/2003; 02:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 112941)
****$410.8****
The POG will rise twice as fast to $500 as it did from $300 to $400 on this last run. The main stream public is catching on.
Goldbug 1
(12/06/2003; 04:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112942)
*****395.00*****
Gold will certainly top $500 in 2004 but not without a struggle.

BTW I am in Cambodia and have seen a number of the new US 'coloured' notes in circulation. Real of fake I don't know.
misetich
(12/06/2003; 06:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 112943)
Global: Global Rebalancing and Dollar Risk - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

Nor has there been any real let-up in America's outsize claim on the global saving pool. The net national saving rate in the US plunged to a record low of 0.6% in the first three quarters of 2003. That left America with little choice other than to import surplus saving from abroad in order to finance economic growth -- and run massive current account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the portion of global saving required to fund the US current-account deficit has more than tripled since 1997. The bulk of this saving has come from Asia, while a much smaller portion is traceable to Europe.
...........................
Perhaps the most disturbing element of the external financing conundrum is that it is not stable. America's rapidly deteriorating fiscal position points to steadily mounting US current-account deficits, which place ever-increasing claims on global saving. That means foreign investors will need to increase their already overweight positions in dollar-denominated assets in order to keep the US-centric global growth dynamic going.
......................
The dollar may have the final say in this great debate. A rebalancing of an unbalanced global economy cannot occur without a shift in relative prices, in my view. That puts unmistakable downward pressure on the dollar -- the world's most important relative price. In broad, trade-weighted terms the dollar has fallen about 10% (in real terms) over the past 22 months -- a quintessential soft landing. Based on current-account adjustments of the past, the dollar's downward adjustment may only be half over, at best
..........................
As I travel the world, the common response that I get when speaking of the potential for a further drop in the dollar refers to the belief that Washington wouldn't dare let the currency fall sharply before the upcoming presidential election. That reflects a deeply held view that the authorities have both the will and the means to offset the powerful confluence of market-driven and psychological forces.
********************
Misetich

Yes the "comfort" of thinking SOMEBODY will take care of this. Blind faith placed in the hands of a few fools, such as Sir Greenspan

Prior to 9/11 the world "thought" America was invincible - most still think it is and THEY ARE, in many ways! However, US is vulnerable, perhaps, like in no other time in its triumphunt history.

The "score" of "enemies" following the pathetic foreign policy of , you're either with us or against us, turning friendly allies such as Canada, Mexico, France, Germany against supporting US invasion of Iraq, against US foreign policy.

It is the "loss" of support from these countries that has tilted the scale against the US.

It is the forever "ongoing war against terror" that makes US vulnerable - (some think the US will benefit, as they're playing the military card) - some others believe the US has overextended and overeached painting itself in a corner.

Roach does not address potential unforseen events, or "shocks" in his article above- events such as the 9/11, LCTM collapse, ANOTHER Enron, or Russia debacle - which constitues the difference between a soft landing and a hard landing in the US $ as egoistical Sir Greenspan has very little left at his disposal.

Gold, Physical Gold has no rivals during turbulent times such as we are in

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express







Boilermaker
(12/06/2003; 06:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112944)
CB Gold Sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031206/metals_gold_panizzutti_1.htmlSnip;
DUBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Central Bank Gold Agreement could raise total sales by 17.5 percent if it is renewed next year, the former head of foreign exchange and gold at the Bank of International Settlements said on Saturday.

Since 1999, Giacomo Panizzutti had been in charge of the secretariat responsible for supervising the five-year agreement which limits total sales by 15 European central banks to 2,000 tonnes, or 400 tonnes annually. It runs out in September 2004.

"I strongly believe the agreement will be extended, probably for a slightly larger amount of around 2,300 to 2,400 tonnes, and for another five years," Panizzutti, who retired last year after a 34-year career, told a gold conference in Dubai.

"Such an increase of about 300 to 400 tonnes should not be a problem and should be easily absorbed as long as the market remains as well supported as it is just now," he said.

"I would not be surprised if they were to abandon the restriction on gold lending," he added.

The market has been eyeing three major holders of world gold reserves -- Germany, Italy and France -- as potential big sellers in any new agreement. Germany has indicated several times it would like to sell gold next time round while France and Italy have so far remained silent.

"My view is France would welcome a reduction in their gold reserves, which stand at 54 percent," Panizzutti said.

He said he would not be surprised if Switzerland decided to sell 350 to 400 tonnes between 2005 and 2009 and that Spain could easily dispose of 200 to 250 tonnes.

Panizzutti said he did not think Britain, Italy or Sweden would make further sales and that if Sweden were to enter the list of sellers it would probably be a small amount.

By September 2004, he said, the official gold holdings of the 15 signatories would amount to around 14,000 tonnes -- about half the gold owned by the official sector worldwide. He said Greece was expected to be added to the new agreement.

"I think the amount of gold central banks are holding is very large and more reductions make sense as long as it is a gradual increase and not a very large decrease," he said. "Maybe this is the right time to take a longer term view."

comment,
I don't suppose this has anything to do with capping gold prices. Giacomo didn't say what the gold sale proceeds will be "invested" into. He also didn't say anything about the results of the first five year 2000 ton sales. Seems that an accounting of those results would be helpful in guiding future sales. Has anyone asked Giacomo if the past sales have resulted in higher reserve assets with the banks that have sold or would they have been better off holding that gold. Gold selling CB's never get challenged at least by the morons in the media.

Boilermaker
Boilermaker
(12/06/2003; 07:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 112945)
CB Gold Sales
With respect to my previous post, this subject, it is my opinion that most of this gold to be sold in the next 5 year CB sale program is gold that has already been loaned out, sold into the markets and not recoverable by the lendee. The CB's need a cover for the missing gold.

It seems that before any more sales are conducted that each bank requesting a sale quota be subject to a rigorous physical gold audit by an independent agent. I wonder what the people would do about their Central Banks if they knew the truth.

Boilermaker
Maverick1
(12/06/2003; 07:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112946)
Boilermaker
That single article(when analysed properly) says it all. In the three years I have been following gold I have never seen so much inaccuracy and disinformation about gold and CB sales in one article! I mean really. When I got to the end, I fully expected him to announce that a bar of gold would now be handed out along with a carton of government surplus cheese.
Maverick1
(12/06/2003; 07:15:44 MDT - Msg ID: 112947)
France Welcomes Sale?!
No way! You can say what you want about the French but they didn't amass 54% of their reserves in gold because they are fools. DeGaulle taught them well regarding US dollar hegemony. That single line alone would lead me to discredit/disregard everything that man says about the future of gold.
goldenpeace
(12/06/2003; 07:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112948)
Contest: ***********$410.0**************
Gold will certainly top $500 in 2004 since the dollar will sink a lot....because the rest of the world will call a halt to financing our profligacy and shy away from the $ standard for holding real wealth.
Bowing
goldenpeace
Boilermaker
(12/06/2003; 07:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112949)
Dubai Gold Conference
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/31760.htmlI was curious about the Dubai Gold Conference since I didn't get an invitation. Here's a snip about it

"'We are very proud to provide our support to this conference � an event that has become truly international through the profile of speakers and attending delegates,' said Ahmed bin Sulayem, COO, DMCC. 'At DMCC we are also pleased to see so much of the event devoted to manufacturing and mining � showing that Dubai is now becoming so much more than simply a centre for selling the finest jewellery. It is our belief that through partnership, and international conferences such as these, that Dubai will start to assume a far greater importance in the global marketplace for precious metals, gems and jewellery,' he concluded.

AngloGold, the largest mining corporation in the world, has been confirmed as the conference's leading key sponsor. As well as being key sponsors of the conference, a number of senior representatives from AngloGold, the Diamond Trading Company (De Beers), Credit Suisse, Standard Bank and World Gold Council, will all actively participate in the annual event. Support sponsors, including American Express, Commerzbank International SA & National Bank of Fujairah, Fiera de Vicenza, National Bank of Dubai and Scotia Mocatta, Sisma, Transguard and Emirates Airline, the official carrier for the event, are all actively involved in the promotion and support of this high profile event."

comment,
The focus is on jewelry and based on early comments the CB's want to assure the group that gold will be plentiful for many years. No need to stock up now, we'll keep it flowing.

Boilermaker
a nation of one
(12/06/2003; 07:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112950)
$$$$$ 412.00 $$$$$

Will POG go to $500 in 2004? Very likely. Once something
goes up, it is easier for it to go higher. More people are
aware of gold now. That means more will buy it. There are
many reasons why it should. None why it should not.
a nation of one
(12/06/2003; 07:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112951)
***** 412.00 *****

Sorry. Asterisks, not dollar marks.

BlackBart
(12/06/2003; 08:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 112952)
****410.3****
POG will top 500 in 2004 because by the end of the year it will be obvious to all but the most numb that the Empire is crumbling fast...the many Nero's in Charge are making all the mistakes that have been made before throughout history, the primary mistake being unmitigated arrogance. Even those citizens who have never paid attention to the standing of the USD or POG are starting to take notice thanks partly to attention being paid by some of the mainstream media...that coupled with the growing nagging queasy feeling about the position of the US in world affairs will push more and more to seek refuge in a solid international safe haven for protection of their holdings.
Black Bart
Max Rabbitz
(12/06/2003; 08:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112953)
The rest of the Story,
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031206/metals_gold_panizzutti_1.htmlposted by Boilermaker. Big Bank VP says short and long-term trend of gold is positive with a firm $400 base.

"Ursula Oser, vice president head credit and fixed income research at Credit Suisse, told the conference the positive trend in gold prices would continue in the short and long term because U.S. dollar weakness was likely to persist and there was no real inflationary threat in the first half of 2004.

She also said that there were Asian currency iversification efforts into euro and gold.

Gold prices closed at near-eight-year highs of $407.30 an ounce on Friday after the U.S. dollar fell to a new low against the euro and made bullion cheaper for overseas investors.

The $400-per-ounce level, seen as a psychological barrier just weeks ago, has become a rock-solid level of support.

"I think $411 is another important resistance. It might be roken soon," Oser said. "We are cautiously optimistic on gold prices. I think there are several factors supporting gold but don't expect an upward trend to develop without corrections."

Max.....Fine but she seems to think that there is no inflation on the horizon. She must be holding Euro's.
Cavan Man
(12/06/2003; 08:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 112954)
CB Gold Sales
FACT: With the USD comprising such a HUGE component of global reserves, and further, with the dollar so sick and failing, NO central bank, NO treasury, NO SOVEREIGN NATION will be selling GOLD--not now. The time for that has passed. They are buying.

The gentleman from the BIS is trying to calm the market.
Remarx
(12/06/2003; 08:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112955)
**** $405.7 ****
The POG will likely go beyond $500 late in 2004, primarily as a response to escalating turbulence related to the ME (which has been exacerbated by the illegal US invasion of Iraq). Over the past two years, the rising POG has been keeping steady pace with the progressive devaluation of the dollar. Violence will act as a "force multiplier" for gold price hikes, causing it to increase its pace of acceleration. Gold will not shoot up dramatically to the $850 level again until the Bush administration is re-selected and continue their practice of looting the US government and oppressing the people in earnest.
Max Rabbitz
(12/06/2003; 09:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112956)
****$407.4****
Yes to $500 gold in 2004. The sun will continue to rise in the east and the dollar to set in the west. Election year politics mean nothing fundamental will change, even if they still had options, which I doubt. It's full speed ahead with big promises to the speculators. Its heads the speculators win and tails the savers lose everything ..... unless you save in something golden.

Druid
(12/06/2003; 09:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112957)
November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro
Location: New York
Author: Kristina Persson
Date: Monday, November 17, 2003
Print Article
Email Article



The following is a speech by Ms Kristina Persson, Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank, at the Women's Economic Round Table in New York on 29th October 2003.
Introduction

Allow me first to extend special thanks for this invitation. It is particularly important for me personally as well as for the Riksbank to be given this opportunity to meet women economists and discuss current economic issues. I am privileged to be one of three women on the Riksbank's Executive Board, which has a total of six members. At the Riksbank we strive to attain an even distribution of men and women at all levels. This is a deliberate policy but also reflects the sharp rise in the proportion of women among qualified economists entering the Swedish business sector in recent decades. If this trend is to continue, and more women are to take the chance of achieving success in this traditionally male profession, we will need more role models like you here today.

The subject of my speech is "The impact of the euro", a topic that was decided before 14 September 2003 , when Sweden held a referendum on introducing the single currency. Personally I am convinced for many reasons that Sweden should introduce the euro, and made no secret of that. However, as many of you know, the result was a clear �no� to the euro.

The question of the economic advantages and disadvantages of the euro often resembles a tug-of-war between the short- and long-term perspectives. The risks, when highlighted, often temporarily overshadow the long-term gains, which arise in small incremental doses over a long period.

Unfortunately, short-term conditions came sharply into focus just when the Swedish people were about to vote, as attention was turned to the global economic slowdown and its effect on the euro area, particularly in the major countries. GDP growth in Germany and France is forecast to decline from 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively in 2002 to 0.0 and 0.3 per cent in 2003 (Riksbank forecast). This is the poorest rate of growth in these countries in over a decade. In the debate on the euro, this contraction in growth was largely attributed to the limitations imposed on these countries� economic policies, as they did not have a national monetary policy, and to the fiscal policy constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact. As we know, the budget deficits of both Germany and France have in both 2002 and 2003 exceeded the reference value of 3 per cent of GDP , which was established in the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. At the same time, attention in the debate was drawn to the temporary and one-off rise in prices of certain goods that occurred when prices were rounded after the introduction of the euro.

In light of this, it is understandable that many voters got the impression that there were no economic benefits of participation in the euro. Furthermore, those that voted against the single currency may have been strengthened in their belief by the fact that the �no� vote was not followed by any speculation against the krona, which instead has appreciated against both the euro and the dollar since the referendum.

What didn't feature in the same way in the debate was the longer-term perspective - and it is this perspective that I believe speaks in favour of the euro. It proved difficult to explain that the underlying causes of the crisis in Germany and France were mainly domestic structural problems, partly in the labour market. Those problems had existed long before EMU and could not be remedied by a separate currency and monetary policy. At the same time, the economic slowdown overshadowed the long-term transaction gains of a single currency for trade and the financial markets.

In earlier economic research, the gains associated with a single currency were often viewed as uncertain and very small at best. As there were very few contemporary examples of currency unions, comparisons were made instead between fixed and floating exchange rates, in which fixed exchange rates did not appear to result in any definite welfare gains. More recent research has concentrated on the smaller currency unions that have nevertheless existed, and has excluded other factors in so-called gravitation models. This research has pointed to quite substantial gains from currency unions (a shift in the magnitude of 50 per cent or even more according to researchers such as Andrew K Rose, at Berkeley ). Even conservative estimates indicate a considerable rise in trade within currency areas, and attendant welfare gains. Other studies, which are directly based on trade dynamics in the last decade, suggest that trade between the euro area countries may have increased by 5-10 per cent as a result of the euro.

Another long-term gain is in price competition. The limited and temporary rise in prices of certain goods and services in conjunction with the introduction of the euro notes and coins should be weighed against the long-term gains from price transparency, the effect of easier price comparisons when prices in the entire euro area are expressed in the same currency. Previously, this particular gain was also perceived as minimal as cross-border trade is relatively small and companies themselves are said to be capable of converting prices regularly between currencies without suffering any major efficiency losses. However, at the same time, there were price differences in the EU of 20-30 per cent on a number of goods (cars, for example) that should be relatively easy to both transport over the border and compare in terms of price. These differences appear to have diminished quicker since euro banknotes and coins were introduced in 2001. New research also suggests that the effects of a common currency on prices may have been underestimated. For instance, Charles Engel from the University of Wisconsin compared price differences for the same goods in cities on both sides of the Canadian and US border with price differences between different cities in the US . Although US and Canadian cities have largely the same language and culture, as well as free trade, the different currencies cause prices to vary as much on each side of the border as between cities at opposite ends of the US .

Finally, of course, there is the increasingly important role of the euro as a dominant international currency.

The most immediate gain from this is an increase in seignorage income to the extent that the euro is more widely held outside the euro area than the sum of the currencies that preceded it. Taken as a whole, the euro area is the world's largest exporter and importer, accounting for about one-fifth of international trade. Despite this the US dollar is still the most common counterparty in foreign exchange trading and the widespread use of the dollar as a �vehicle currency� in itself reinforces its status. Given that the euro is still a young currency it is likely to grow in importance and may in time have the potential to catch up with the dollar's share in the foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, by replacing 12 currencies, in particular the German mark and the French franc, the euro was used immediately as a reserve currency by central banks and became part of a currency basket (for example in Morocco) or a solitary anchor for the exchange rate policy of some countries (like Estonia, Bosnia and Bulgaria). Nevertheless, two-thirds of world reserves are still held in US dollars compared with less than 15 per cent in euros, although since the euro's introduction there appears to have been a gradual shift in the composition of the reserves of large economies such as Russia , and even China , towards an increased share for the euro. All this points to larger income to the euro area from external holders of the euro, a small but not insignificant gain given that estimates of US seignorage income from external holders of the dollar is estimated at almost 1 per cent of GDP .

The euro is also bound to increase the efficiency of euro area financial markets. The use of the euro in the international debt market has increased compared with the joint share of its preceding currencies. The share of international bonds denominated in euros and issued by non-euro area residents has increased to about 30 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for the currencies that preceded the euro. Important factors behind this development are the larger home-currency investor base and the better issuing conditions for international borrowers provided by the unified European money market, which is now more liquid and efficient than the markets in the individual countries before the introduction of the euro.

Needless to say, European equity markets have also been affected by the disappearance of currency risk within the euro area. There appears to be a gradual shift from the domestic focus in the euro area countries to a euro area-wide, sector-related, view. Integration is likely to attract a broader range of potential investors and benefit the development of private equity and financing opportunities for new firms.

In addition to these economic advantages, we must naturally also include what I consider to be the decisive political arguments in favour of Sweden participating fully in the political and economic cooperation with a view to attaining a position of influence in a strong and prosperous Europe .

The fact that the Swedish krona has not been more negatively affected by the result of the referendum, despite the foregone advantages, could in turn be due to long-term factors that are independent of EMU. The political uncertainty ahead of the referendum should indeed have contributed to the somewhat weaker krona during the summer. However, the krona has been considered undervalued for a long time. So, one reason for the krona's current recovery is that the markets are once again focusing on Sweden 's long-term, stable macroeconomic policy, which has remained in place regardless of EMU. This policy includes the Riksbank's inflation target and a budgetary framework that has the support of all parliamentary parties.

Thus, Sweden will remain outside the euro for the time being, together with its fellow EU countries Denmark and the UK . But as early as May next year the EU will have ten new Member States and around 100 million new inhabitants, the vast majority from Central and Eastern Europe. Of these ten, nine have expressed their desire to join monetary union as soon as they meet the convergence criteria. Contrary to many people's expectations, several of these countries appear fully capable of meeting the criteria in the next few years. After a decade of reforms leading from planned economy to market economy, inflation and budget deficits have been cut and debt levels have been kept in check in a number of the smaller countries, while for the bigger countries, such as Poland , Hungary and the Czech Republic , budget consolidation is their last remaining obstacle. So it is not unrealistic that a handful of new countries could introduce the euro as early as 2006-2007, or in any case 2-3 years later. It may be that Sweden , Denmark and the UK will have to discuss their future relationship to the euro at the same time as the euro area expands to include half a dozen new countries.

The Central and Eastern European countries will also have to weigh the long-term gains of adopting the euro against the risks of asymmetric shocks. The advantages for these countries are perhaps even clearer than for Sweden . Particularly substantial gains may arise from increased financial integration through the euro. Thanks to the fact that banks from EU countries have acquired large sections of the banking system in eastern Europe, the financial sector there has been able to evolve relatively quickly. But the new Member States� financial systems are still rather undeveloped, with credits in relation to GDP of between one-eighth and one-quarter of that in the euro area. Sweden 's Baltic neighbour Estonia is one example of how currency integration can help the financial system to evolve. The Estonians have pegged their currency to the euro for over a decade and are keen to quickly take the step into monetary union. Their banking system is owned by Swedish-Nordic banks and credit volumes are growing by 20-30 per cent a year - most of which is denominated in euro. In some countries, the euro can also help to cement the macroeconomic discipline that is still a relatively new phenomenon there.

Meanwhile, the risks that stem from the countries possibly diverging from the euro area average are perhaps also clearer than for Sweden (which is a country that is unusually well-integrated with euro area countries and has a similar economic structure). But some factors suggest that the new Member States in central Europe do not need a different monetary policy than that of the euro area. These countries also have close ties with the rest of the EU, which is their biggest trading partner by far, accounting for some 50-70 per cent of imports and exports. Having said that, the countries are still undergoing a period of quick change; it is conceivable that any potential shocks during such a transitional period would be managed better through a national monetary policy. Their growth is and should be considerably higher than the EU average as long as they continue to reduce the differences in their standard of living compared with the rest of the EU. This always entails risks of overheating similar to that experienced by the fast-growing Irish economy.

The assessment of the risks related to the process of change and of the long-term gains varies between the different candidate countries depending on how open and flexible their economies are. Nevertheless, it seems that the advantages of integration will outweigh the disadvantages when the new countries have assessed the euro, even if it is likely that some of the new Member States will have to wait longer than others before introducing the euro.

If there are such gains to be made from a common currency in a reunified Europe , would it not be possible that such gains may also be attained on a global level? Should we continue on a path towards more global monetary cooperation? There are many arguments both for and against such an arrangement. In recent years we have seen substantial exchange rate fluctuations between some of the world's large economic blocs. These have largely been related to developments in the US dollar. The dollar's weakening against the euro has recently gained impetus once again; in two years, the euro/dollar exchange rate has gone from a low of 84 cents to 1.18 dollars in recent weeks - a rise of just over 40 per cent. Discussions of the implications of an overvalued dollar for the US current account deficit have quickly turned into concern over the effects of the rapid fall in the dollar on euro area growth. Should there be a quicker correction in the US current account deficit due to diminishing interest among international investors in US assets, the dollar could weaken further. A fast and dramatic depreciation of the dollar could derail Europe 's fragile recovery.

But in addition to this concern over excessively sharp movements in exchange rates, an equally heated discussion has flared up in recent months, both in the US and Europe, as to whether the perhaps most important fixed peg that exists today between two major international currencies, that between the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi, should be abandoned. For the past decade, the Chinese currency has been pegged by the People's Bank of China at a rate of around 8.28 renminbi per dollar. Critics of this policy, mainly leading US politicians and some industrialists, believe that Chinese exports have been given an unfair advantage when the renminbi has tracked the dollar's fall against the euro.

The most drastic answer to these exchange rate issues would be to propose a new global monetary system of the kind that existed after the Second World War and up to the early 1970s in the shape of the Bretton Woods Agreement and the link via the dollar to gold. This kind of solution has actually been recommended by Robert Mundell, a currency area theorist and winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Even Keynes considered the establishment of a global currency, the bancor. Mundell points to transaction gains for trade and the financial markets, but also other arguments. One of these is that the signalling of international relative prices is distorted by exchange rate fluctuations caused by capital flows. Another is that the global economy has led to increasingly weak money illusion, the illusion that prevents wage-earners from immediately perceiving a deterioration in their purchasing power following a depreciation, and from demanding compensation that would render the depreciation ineffectual. Despite the intellectual appeal of such arguments, it is not difficult to see that during the past decade, the US, Europe and Japan have had very different growth rates and their business cycles have been highly unsynchronised. Given that monetary policy would be dictated by the monetary system, a tremendous burden would be placed on fiscal policy to stabilise the economy when the differences across the common monetary area are too great. The large real adjustments that would be required in wages and relative prices in the US and Europe - instead of an adjustment in the exchange rate - would probably cost more than the gains derived from having fixed global exchange rates.

Therefore, the requirements necessary to make such a system work, which in reality are the factors that determine what constitutes an optimal currency area, indicate that such a solution is a distant prospect, if it should become reality at all. In addition, there are the practical and administrative problems of organising such a global monetary system, indeed even a global central bank with representation from all countries.

A middle ground between a single currency or single monetary standard such as Bretton Woods, and fully floating exchange rates, would be intervention bands and controlled exchange rates between, for instance, the euro and the dollar. However, this would partly suffer from the same problems as a fully fixed regime. Furthermore, we would encounter the same dilemma that characterised all semi-fixed, or fixed but adjustable exchange rate arrangements, which failed so miserably over the past ten years. The list is long, from Sweden's and the ERM countries� crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, to the crises in Mexico, Asia, Russia and Brazil during the subsequent decade. All displayed some similar characteristics, which a controlled exchange rate between the dollar and euro would also be unable to escape. At some point in time, the market becomes aware that the political gains of avoiding painful real adjustments are probably less than the costs and loss of prestige associated with an exchange rate adjustment. Once the market realises this, speculation follows and the costs of defending the exchange rate mount, at the same as the potential loss of prestige from adjustment diminishes. In the end, an exchange rate adjustment becomes economically unavoidable and politically acceptable - regardless of whether politicians wanted it. Of course, such a spiral is not possible with a single currency where adjustments must occur without devaluation and where speculation of this kind is impossible.

Do not these arguments lead us to conclude that China too should let its currency float? After all, China is one of the world's largest economies that in spite of its increasing openness follows a course of its own. Critics of the dollar peg believe that if the renminbi were allowed to float, it would appreciate, thus reducing China's current account surplus and shrinking the US deficit. In the long term, I believe that it is right to allow the renminbi to float. In the short term, however, it is difficult to see this as the appropriate solution. The main reason for not floating the renminbi yet is the Chinese financial system. The Chinese banking system is still a long way from being adapted to market conditions, and a large proportion of its lending is still made to state-owned companies that are often unable to honour their payment obligations. If we take into account all the hidden and disclosed non-performing loans in the banking system, these are estimated to be equal to as much as half of China's GDP , and they are continuing to grow. Were the currency allowed to float before addressing these problems, it is just as likely to depreciate as appreciate since the Chinese public could take advantage of the opportunity to transfer its assets abroad instead of saving at low interest rates in the weak 5 domestic banking system, a system that would then be rocked to its foundations. The experiences of many countries, including Sweden at the beginning of the 1990s, show that the foreign exchange market should not be deregulated until the banking system has been reformed.

Could China not revalue then and adapt the exchange rate to its trade surplus without floating its currency? In my opinion, this would not be such a wise decision either. It is wrong to attribute China's trade surplus with the US to the currency issue. The surplus is probably best explained by the cost advantages enjoyed by Chinese producers in labour-intensive goods compared with the US. China's trade surplus can be seen as a natural consequence of the division of labour within the Pacific region where China's position as supplier and sub-supplier of low value-added goods is highly favourable for US productivity. This is a segment in which the Chinese compete with very few US producers, which is why an exchange rate adjustment would have only a marginal impact. In actual fact, an excessively large one-off adjustment would be required to have any effect at all on the US-Chinese trade balance. Such a large correction would in turn give rise to problems for Chinese trade elsewhere. It is with the US that China enjoys a large surplus, while the trade balance is close to zero or is negative with many other areas, including the euro area. This picture is confirmed by many fundamental analyses of an equilibrium exchange rate for China, which come relatively close to China's fixed exchange rate today. Furthermore, China currently has either very low inflation or deflation, which normally points to devaluation pressure rather than revaluation pressure (a need for real depreciation). Finally, China and other the Asian economies that are trying to prop up the value of their currencies are the main purchasers of US Treasury bonds. So, in a situation where the US government finances are deteriorating, the Chinese exchange rate regime is actually helping to depress US long yields and indirectly bolstering the US recovery.

My conclusion is that China in the short term should retain its fixed exchange rate until such time as its financial system has undergone more substantial reform, which is something that nevertheless must be done in the coming years. In the long term, however, a floating exchange rate appears unavoidable for a country that is on the way to becoming one of the world's leading economies. It is only in the much longer term, when China is highly integrated with the world economy, that fixed exchange-rate cooperation can become a possibility once again.

This conclusion brings me back to the main line of my argument: Europe can gradually be enlarged to become a relatively big currency area that includes all the countries, from Ireland in the west to Estonia in the east, where the long-term microeconomic gains outweigh the recurring but temporary macroeconomic costs. As the representative of a central bank, I must add that it is interesting to at least toy with the idea of how a global currency and global monetary policy would look. But for the time being this will probably remain no more than an intellectually stimulating vision. At global level, integration needs to go much further, and the economies become more synchronised, if the long-term gains of fixed exchange-rate cooperation are to outweigh the risks.

In the long term, it is not inconceivable that a trend will arise towards large regional currency blocs with single currencies, but with flexibility between them. Within these blocs, it will be possible to reap the advantages of integration fully, while the risks will be limited by increasingly similar conditions in the countries taking part in the common currency. Competition between these areas regarding which has the dominant reserve currency may increase gradually. The dollar's unique position will weaken, just as we are seeing today with a numbe
Druid
(12/06/2003; 09:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 112958)
November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro
November 17: Speech - The Impact of the Euro
Location: New York
Author: Kristina Persson
Date: Monday, November 17, 2003
Print Article
Email Article

******The remaining text from my previous post******

The dollar's unique position will weaken, just as we are seeing today with a number of Asian central banks planning to increase their assets in euro and reduce those in dollars. Let us hope that there will also be cooperation between the regions, so as to give the world greater stability, development and continued integration.

Druid: An excellent read. It is, to say the least, a difficult undertaking to coordinate monetary and political policies from such a diverse set of participants. Sometimes a little short term pain is worth the longer term gain. There are so many variables to consider.
Skydog
(12/06/2003; 10:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 112959)
****$412.2****
$500 gold in 2004? Done deal...Sinclair says so!
Liberty Head
(12/06/2003; 10:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 112960)
The Scenery On The Road To $500

I am captivated by our gracious hosts contest question: $500 gold, and why?
It has me thinking more about the events and the living conditions we will experience as the POG passes another century mark. This forum has covered the myriad fundamentals for a rising POG quite well. However, it often takes a huge precipitating event to get the next group of behemoth-sized dominoes to fall.
Not to be deterred by scary questions, what likely precipitating events will occur on the road to $500 gold?
I think the next presidential election will play a major role. Those with high zeal to rule, have a tendency to keep their power by hook or by crook. We may have seen our last free election. The ranks will be filled by conscription. Fear will be the rule.
Those with high zeal for freedom, responsibility and integrity have manned their battle stations. The ranks will be filled from the homeless, the jobless, and the debt-ridden masses as the rose colored glasses are smashed from their bloody faces. Anger will be the rule.
Another dimension of deadly war is upon us, increasingly on our home turf.
As the POG rises, the war will become more and more personal for all.
The good news is, as we saw with the steel tariffs, U-turns are still possible.

Best Wishes
TomJIl
(12/06/2003; 10:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112961)
****$395.4****
Gold to reach $500/oz in 2004? I would bet that it will.
Why? Looking at the 10 year chart (and eyeballing a curve fit), it looks to me like even the second derivative is positive. It's hard to imagine a mechanism to turn such a trend around sufficiently to keep it from hitting the $500 level. On the other hand, as is adequatly documented on this board, there are many mechanisms in effect which could promote the current trend.

I guessed low since I see no reason to believe that those who wish the price to remain low have run out of ammunition, and a price compfortably below the $400 level would be especially damaging to moral now that people are talking about it as a solid floor. Hope I'm wrong ;)

- Tom
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 11:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 112962)
Financial Sense Online - Dec 6
http://financialsense.comJim's interview this morning with bearish Bob Prechter of Elliottwave.com is very unique in that Bob is one of the few bears who is not particularly bullish on commodities yet. His strong evidence of serious deflationary threat suggests that commodities, though not nearly as vulnerable as paper, may very well take hits during the deflation phase of this bear. He thinks holding them is not all bad, but the real bull in metals will occur AFTER the deflation turns to serious or hyper-inflation. It's not completely different from the other bear analysts, but much more slanted towards needed a deflationary wring-out before the inflationary kick checks in.

Certainly worthwile listening as he backs his story with a LOT of data and comparisons of the macro trends of the major bear markets. As his recommendation leans toward cash, I have some misgivings as I watch my cash wilt in the short timeframe. Gold and silver still seem to be a better form of "cash" to me. I think he's right that the real money will be made shorting the markets, but timing and resources make this a very dangerous game for most investors.
misetich
(12/06/2003; 11:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 112963)
Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=28756Snip:

December 4 � Far Eastern Economic Review: "Although still intervening heavily in the foreign-exchange market, in the last few months China has radically scaled back its purchases of United States bonds. In September, Chinese institutions were actually net sellers of U.S. government and agency debt by $2.8 billion, even though foreign reserves rose by $19 billion. Now, economists and market strategists are beginning to wonder what Beijing is doing with all the dollars it is buying. Chinese state media provided a partial answer in early December, reporting that Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion. Bankers and brokers in Hong Kong predict further large purchases of strategic materials, together with the possible acquisition of equity stakes in overseas suppliers over the coming year. If pursued, China's diversification away from U.S. government bonds will be bad news for Washington, which has relied heavily on China's debt purchases to fund its fiscal and current-account deficits. In Asia, some economists even say Washington had it coming, suggesting that the switch is subtle retaliation for current U.S. trade pressures on Beijing."
......................
Importantly, the demise of King Dollar has set in motion a major devaluation of the world's reserve currency. Accordingly, things priced globally in dollars are experiencing a major inflationary revaluation. Crude oil, gold, platinum, copper, soybeans, and commodities generally have all experienced significant price inflation. Buyers and sellers of such assets are forced to make major adjustments. At the same time, runaway global dollar liquidity provides extraordinary purchasing power for buying (especially by China!), investing and speculating.
..............................
******************
Misetich

Sir Greenspan can sleep in peace. There is no price deflation in commodities.

China's growth and divestments of overvalued US $, puts pressure on the rest of US $ foreign holders

Sir Greenspan has been clamoring for "some inflation" to avert the dreaded deflation - he's getting his wish and then some!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express




Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 11:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112964)
Roach posting
@misitech:

I found it interesting that Roach described the dollar declne as about 10% in "real" value, when most are touting the Dx numbers of 120 to 90, a 25% decline. If he is discounting the rising foreign currency part of the equation, I might buy 12-15%, but that suggests complete isolationism - a radical decline from the current state of affairs.

I've already submitted my contest essay, but it appears to me that if if pundits proclaiming another 25% decline in Dx are correct, the price of gold in US$ should reach $500 based on dollar decline alone, with no real adjustment to worldwide value! After all, $100 increase from $400 is 25%!

Way oversimplified, yes, but not completely out of line.

-Goldilox
mikal
(12/06/2003; 11:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 112965)
*******409.60******
It won't require a large, facilitating event to enable gold to see $500 next year given the striking, almost shocking appearance of gold to the technical chartist accounting for wide-ranging, international fundamentals and
unprecedented financial market deception, fraud and derivative opacity.
The roadmap of gold's destiny shows many markers will be chalked up into it's book of golden memories for many years to come.
Shermag
(12/06/2003; 11:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 112966)
****$402.7****
Yes, the gold price will probably exceed $500 in 2004. Given the propensity for a loss in confidence in the US dollar as the imbalances leaning against the dollar grow, a sudden downward revision and a correlated rise in gold is likely.
Gandalf the White
(12/06/2003; 11:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 112967)
TA TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA--- UPDATE !!!!
POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of approximately HIGH NOON 12:00 (Denver time) SATURDAY 12/6/03

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
---
Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)

**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)

**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)
goldquest
(12/06/2003; 12:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 112968)
****$500.00****
NO! Gold will not reach $500 in 2004. It will reach $500 yet this year! Secretly, I am wishing for The Invisible Hand to win this contest!
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 12:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 112969)
The Wizard of Oz symbolism
http://www.mayanmajix.com/art377.htmlDave Morgan linked this site in his "Silver Week in Review" section as he is out of town. I think I've seen it before, but it was much more lucid given the education I have received here and on related sites.

The following characters each have a symbolic reference that is absolutely hilarious:

OZ
TOTO
TIN man
Straw Man
Cowardly Lion
Wizard
Flying Monkeys

I vaguely remember that the witches (god and bad) had some symbolism, but it's not covered in this article and I don't recall the connection. The article author has an evangelistic bent, so maybe the witches are religious symbols he is missing. I don't know. L Frank Baum was pretty ingenious.
Great Albino Bat
(12/06/2003; 12:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112970)
Misetich: Here is the GAB's guano on Roach and "Global Rebalancing".

The gist of Roach's thinking in the interesting piece you quoted earlier, misetich, is that once the Dollar's international value arrives at a lower level - he seems to think that another "10%" will do the trick - the "global rebalancing" will take place smoothly and business will go on as usual.

Mr. Roach is a fine analyst and has spoken a lot of truths in the past, but this approach of his is way too optimistic. Maybe he just doesn't dare say how grave the true world situation is, not wanting to be accused of panic-mongering.

Not only is the American economy's situation dire; the whole world is out of joint. All countries of the world have been affected by the orgy of dollar reserve creation. The Japanese in their effort to keep the Dollar up against the Yen are just one outstanding example, The fact is, ALL countries are going to take a tremendous hit, when the Dollar goes down and ceases to be a reserve asset.

Just when is that "when"? I'll take a guess. (I think it would make an interesting contest subject, in a long-term contest, of course) I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a world Central Bank reserve asset by December 2005, with odds of 50%.

Further, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2008, with odds of 65% likelihood. Two out of three, in other words.

Also, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2013, with odds of 99%.

But getting back to the consequences. The enormous consequences of the Dollar's collapse are inevitable, because the whole world is structured to produce stuff for Americans. When the American economy cannot import the amounts it presently imports, because the Dollar is no longer a reserve asset, then...economic activity the world over is going to suffer a crushing blow. Mass closures of factories the world over will take place, throwing hundreds of millions out of work. The readjustment of all the world's economies is going to require the dismantling of an enormous amount of industry created during the "drug orgy" of unlimited Dollar credit expansion, credit created out of nothing.

I suppose it is these considerations that lead the BIS spokeman to assure us that Central Bank gold sales will increase 17.5% in the next international agreement on such sales. Anything to gain time; not to avoid the debacle, just to move it a little further out into the future. Better to die tomorrow, than today.

Do we really want to see this happen? Sure, the world is living a dream, an illusion, an unsustainable illusion...but do we really want to wake up and face the music?

If we are given more time, let's not despair if gold is contained to a mild rise, to prolong the illusion. It WILL "go to the moon" in due course. As I said, I think it's 99% certain this will happen within 10 years. Just that more time to accumulate gold.

Comments on this guano are welcome.

The GAB
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 13:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 112971)
OZ symbolism
Duh! . . .not to mention the "Yellow Brick Road" - the path to hard money!

Now if I can make a connection to Elton and Bernie's symbolism in

"Goodbye to Yellow Brick Road, where the dogs of society howl!"

Do you think we can tie in Spot and Spike somehow? We might need to supplement their roo meat with "Flying Monkey" meat. . . hmmm
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/06/2003; 13:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 112972)
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Agingfast
(12/06/2003; 13:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112973)
misetich - re: Credit Bubble Bulletin
The excellent Doug Noland report that you posted discusses the price inflation pressures that are building in the US economy - highlighted most recently by the explosive 26% year-over-year rise in the Food Commodities Index. He makes the point that fixed-income investors are lulled to sleep by the likelihood that the Fed will use the excuse of weak job growth to continue to anchor the yield curve with a 1% fed funds rate for a long time to come, especially with the presidential election only 11 months away. But, IMO, the hook (to use an old Joe Granville term) may lie in the sudden realization that the Democrats' nominee for the White House job will be such a weak candidate that the Fed may be willing to reverse the direction of the funds rate a lot sooner than investors expect.
Usul
(12/06/2003; 14:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 112974)
****** $408.0 *******
Gold (GC3Z) has gained at the rate of approximately $50 in 4 and one half months, to stand above $400 as I write.
In fact, if I plot spot gold from June 5th to December 5th, and extrapolate a linear regression line through 2004, the line hits $500. It strikes significantly lower if I go back 1 year. On the longer range gold chart of several years, a saucer shape may be discerned. Therefore, it is reasonable to see an acceleration in the rate of rise of the price of gold- and I suspect that the rate will increase even further next year, so that $500 gold will very likely be seen before 2004 is out. There is also the fact that the dollar is poised for an accelerating decline, because of the profligate money creation, debt burden, military expenditure, and the shifting of the real creation of wealth (manufacturing) to China. Another factor is the existence of an echo-bubble temporary bull market in equities during 2003. Some have noted the rising-wedge formation in US equities. This is also evident in the FTSE. As the equity bear re-asserts itself in 2004, additional buying interest will come into the gold market.
Waverider
(12/06/2003; 15:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 112975)
Goldilox, Roach
I'm with you here in that I question how he calculates a 10% decline in "real terms". The U.S. Dollar Index is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies - Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, Pound 11.9%, Canadian dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2%, and Swiss CHF 3.6%. The DX 22 months ago (Feb.'02) was around 120 and the decline to date is 25%, as you indicated. How can anything be discounted in those figures for Roach to calculate a "real" decline of only 10%? I don't get it... BTW - I calculate that the DX is in the third wave (starting Sept 2'03 @ 99.07) of a 3-wave decline, with wave 1 measuring 28.63. According to Fibonacci ratios and retracements for corrective waves in a normal zig-zag correction, the third wave should about equal the first - this puts a PO for the DX at about 70 - about another 21% or so decline. This is purely looking at the technicals of course, and GAB's comments deserve significant consideration.

Meanwhile ~ for some wild and bizarre entertainment, listen to Pink Flyod's "Dark Side of the Moon" while watching The Wizard of Oz on mute - start the music when the MGM lion roars for the third time - that was a tip to me some time ago from Black Blade...so ya *know* it's gata be good! Cheers,

Waverider
Shanti
(12/06/2003; 15:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112976)
**********$404.4***********

Yes in my opinion we will see POG over $500 in 2004 :

The MAGNITUDE of the rise in the $POG is accelerating since 2001. Projecting 2004, we can expect a rise above the $500 level.
This ofcourse beside any Natural / Economical / Political event(s) who could drive the acceleration far above that level.

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti


MK
(12/06/2003; 15:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 112977)
An early thank you. . . .Holiday Gifts of Gold
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/Wanted to thank all the regulars plus new visitors who have already taken advantage of our new USAGOLD-Jewelry web site. We've gotten off to a fast start thanks to you, and Marie is doing her best to keep up. In fact we are pleasantly suprised at the response.

We checked our prices against several local jewelry outlets and found their pricing substantially above ours and higher than most the 'comparative retails' posted in our on-line jewelry catalogue. The quality on the items that have come through thus far is exceptional, and the jewelry is beautiful -- dazzling is a good word to describe the effect. Plenty of 'oohs, ahs and wows' on some of the pieces from the staff......a recent Panda gold coin necklace was memorable and the 18kt watches, and 14kt omegas are spectacular.

Watches and necklaces seem to be the hot items....And coin jewelry is selling well as it always does.

We haven't set a firm date yet on order cut-offs in time for Christmas, but it wouldn't hurt to order early if you possibly can.

Was at the mall today and noted lots of interest in the jewelry stores. Before you plunk down the big bucks there, check with us. You might be pleasantly surprised. You can pay more if want to, but you don't have to. And we get it to you quickly with our Fed Ex delivery program.

I could rattle on, but instead let me simply invite your visit.......at the link above. We are pleased with our entre into the jewelry business -- a quality product and program offered happily this Holiday Season 2003.
DryWasher
(12/06/2003; 17:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112978)
at Great Albino Bat (Ref. msg#: 112970)

First let me thank you for that impassioned and well reasoned post. Not guano at all, but instead good solid food for thought. If I may quote a bit from it:


"Also, I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a Central Bank reserve asset by 2013, with odds of 99%.

But getting back to the consequences. The enormous consequences of the Dollar's collapse are inevitable, because the whole world is structured to produce stuff for Americans. When the American economy cannot import the amounts it presently imports, because the Dollar is no longer a reserve asset, then...economic activity the world over is going to suffer a crushing blow. Mass closures of factories the world over will take place, throwing hundreds of millions out of work. The readjustment of all the world's economies is going to require the dismantling of an enormous amount of industry created during the "drug orgy" of unlimited Dollar credit expansion, credit created out of nothing."


While I agree with the logic behind the above, and I agree that it might well play out as you indicate, let me caution that their are many other possible scenarios, and that history teaches us that events often follow a path that no one would anticipate.

For example, perhaps the worlds only superpower might well force the continued acceptance of the Dollar by using its military might. Who would dare to stand up against such a power that showed that it was actually willing to use nuclear weapons against any nation which dared to step out of line?

Or perhaps reason could prevail and a new world economic order based on the proven Gold Standard and mutual respect among nations might be put in place by wise and honest leaders.

Or ........................ (You get the idea.)

To me the most important part of your post is the following:


"Do we really want to see this happen? Sure, the world is living a dream, an illusion, an unsustainable illusion...but do we really want to wake up and face the music?"


I think you have identified the real problem in the above questions, and I fear that as a whole, we the people do not want to wake up to the realities but rather want to continue the illusion to the bitter end, just as the drug addict wants the high to go on forever. More good reasons to have GOLD in your possession.

Thanks again, and best wishes.
DryWasher.
specie-man
(12/06/2003; 17:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 112979)
The GAB's dollar forecast
The GAB wrote:
"I guess that the Dollar will cease to be a world Central Bank reserve asset by December 2005, with odds of 50%."

Hmm...
That corresponds well to the countdown essay I posted here a while back called "The Fall of 2005". That is when I think everyone will let go of the US dollar.
spotlight
(12/06/2003; 17:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 112980)
reserve dollars converted to commodity assets?
Snippet:

December 4 � Far Eastern Economic Review: "Although still intervening heavily in the foreign-exchange market, in the last few months China has radically scaled back its purchases of United States bonds. In September, Chinese institutions were actually net sellers of U.S. government and agency debt by $2.8 billion, even though foreign reserves rose by $19 billion. Now, economists and market strategists are beginning to wonder what Beijing is doing with all the dollars. Chinese state media provided a partial answer in early December, reporting that Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion. Bankers and brokers in Hong Kong predict further large purchases of strategic materials, together with the possible acquisition of equity stakes in overseas suppliers over the coming year.
***********************************************************

Comment:
Consider the following quote from the above:

"Beijing plans to build up a 90-day, 50-million-tonne strategic oil reserve. At current crude prices of around $30 a barrel, that will cost China $10 billion."
***********************************************
Commodity prices have been soaring this year, up 35%+. Purchases of US treasury bonds fell drastically. When you put these two together it could spell trouble for the US bond market and the dollar reserve status. It is quite possible countries loaded with dollars have decided to buy and hold commodities they need on a regular basis, at today's prices, rather than watch the purchasing power of their dollar reserves depreciate. Further ramifications from this should wait for confirmation.

Confirmation would be in the form of more reports of poor US bond sales plus a continuation of commodity accumulation plus, also, possible buyout or buying of interest in commodity producers worldwide.

We seem to be in a clever, governmental reserve assets transition and diversification. By buying and storing the commodities they will need in the future with dollars, they are cloaking, to some degree their disdain of the dollar while protecting their wealth.
Crosswind
(12/06/2003; 17:44:32 MDT - Msg ID: 112981)
ThankYou
Have lurked 4 years now , this forum is one of my daily reads and favorite websites.
..............391.75.................
Gandalf the White
(12/06/2003; 17:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 112982)
WELCOME Sir Crosswind !!
Have a chair at the TABLEROUND and let us hear from you often.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/06/2003; 18:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 112983)
Sir Crosswind !
Thanks for the EXTRA nickel !
The Hobbits got that.
<;-)
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 18:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 112984)
GAB guano
@ DryWasher:

As many of us have witnessed, that there bat guano can be mighty potent stuff!!
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 18:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112985)
Converting Chinese reserves
@ Spotlight:
re: Far Eastern Economic Review

Some of these columnists' myopia amazes me. They ask questions like "What are the Chinese going to do with all those US $ reserves. Can they not remember back two weeks when the Chinese delegation was here buying oodles of 737s and gobs of trucks, cars, and tractors. If they're buying boatloads of vehicles, they're GONNA need an ocean of gas and oil, especially as they reverse engineer these goodies and start the competitive manufacturing lines rolling. As soon as they figgered out the trade sanctions were a bluff, they also rescheduled the meetings to close contracts on acre-bushels of soybeans and corn stocks to feed all those busy bees on the assembly lines. Gonna need MUCH Tofu.

Yes, folks, the Chinese are moving out of the peepee paper markets and buying USEFUL stuff with their excess US $. Mainstream American investors don't seem savvy enough to do the same, but who can blame them with all the yee-ha hoopla on the idiot box? There're still buying stocks with PEs of 100+ and earnings of spittle (not the folks here, I hope, but too many of our bretheren).
Goldilox
(12/06/2003; 18:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 112986)
Dream state
@ GAB:

When you mentioned the resistance to waking from "The dream", I was reminded of the post by Sir ORO in the HOF. He likened our state to the plot of "Matrix", where the entire world is a virtual dream state with only a select few having the knowledge of the machinations.

Recurring themes . . .

Goldilox
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/06/2003; 19:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 112987)
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R Powell
(12/06/2003; 19:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 112988)
******* $406.7 ******
Now, then, POG above $300 ?? Ah..$400?
No wait, that's an old contest, let me see....

Ah, here's the question...$500...

Without cant or cacophony but with candor and care, compose a clear, concise and candid composition conjecturing conclusively concerning conditions committing the POG toward climatic calibrations of calculus.

The severity of the damage caused by the underlying government fiscal and monetary policies, as reflected and enhansed in the general global business world will become apparent to a greater amount of investment money, thus accelerating the reaction to this perception. The rate of increase will be very unstable but will increase.
Happy weekend
Rich
heavy mettle
(12/06/2003; 20:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 112989)
****$408.5****

Definitely gold will hit $500 in 2004.

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." Albert Einstein

I don't see a whole lot of new thinking going on in the world today. Even if there was, it wouldn't make much difference at this point.
Felix the Cat
(12/06/2003; 21:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 112990)
****$ 413.3****
I think POG will be closed to $500 in 2004. Because next year is voting year both in USA and Taiwan. So, investors should take more time to think about it!

Thanks
F. C
Tranquility Base
(12/06/2003; 22:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 112991)
******$412.6******
I think we will see $500 gold in 2004. I base my opinions on much of the wisdom that I read on these pages which help me to develop a bullish attitude toward gold. Technically the massive reverse head and shoulders should resolve itself to $500 plus within that time frame. $500 gold would be a 25% gain from this point which is not out of range in any bull market. Much less of a problem in a bull market that seems to be accelerating and still has years to go. I would prefer it to take all year to get there so that we will still have a long journey to the top. However, I am not waiting to get on "The Express" as Sir Misetich suggests. The whistle is a blowin, and thanks to all of you, I have a window seat.
Tranquility Base here,
The Eagle has landed
commish
(12/06/2003; 22:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 112992)
****403.60****
The herd will be tired of semiconductors and pile into precious metals. Yes on $500 Gold.
Goldendome
(12/07/2003; 00:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 112994)
@ Goldilox: A Parable on Populism and the Silver movement.
http://www.amphigory.com/oz.htm
Sir Goldilox: The Wizard of Oz, that you presented in yesterday's discussion, is a fascinating parable of the political and economic struggles within the United States during the final decade of the 19th century. Presented in what seems a children's book.

One of the unfortunate changes made in the movie version was that Dorothy's slippers were said to be Ruby, when in fact they were SILVER in the book. This change obscures a major issue that burned in the last quater of the 1800's.

The work of Frank Baum presents the view of late 19th century progressives that the economic problems of the common man could be solved if "free silver" could assist in lifting the poor and working American to prosperity, from the deflationary hold of the Gold interests of the time. One major problem then was that the world had shifted to the Gold Standard and there just wasn't enough of the stuff to go around. Anyone owing a debt, payable in Gold dollars, saw the value of his tradable measure, be it, farm commodities, labor, or other good, decreasing in value, versus the value of the dollars borrowed and owed.

Recall, that for nearly the first 100 years of our nation's history, we had operated on a system of Bimetallism (free coinage of both gold and silver in ratio) as did most of the rest of the world. The last quarter of the 19th century brought the demise of Bimetallism everywhere, I believe. Many farmers, trades and industrial workers, and just common folk demanded, once again, for a return to bimetallism, as a way to expand the money supply...Oddly enough, those advocating free Silver were criticized at that time as being inflationists!! We should be so lucky today, ehh?

Some representations within the book that I have seen:

Oz is the United States.
The Emerald City is Washington D.C..
The Wizard of Oz is whoever currently is in power and hides from the public. (The President)
Dorothy represents the goodness and innocence of the American people.
The wicked witch of the East are the moneyed and political interests that keep control.
The Tin man represents the industrial workers--again controlled by the witch and idled through economic depression.
The Scarecrow represents the agrarian interests, who at first meeting may appear somewhat slow, but later exhibit their innate intelligence and shrewdness.
The Cowardly lion? Some think it's anyone who would desire to wrest control, but is unable to do so. William Jennings Bryan (3 time Presidential candidate) is often compared to the Cowardly Lion.

I list the above, but there are many more analogies.

I provide, above, a link to one descriptive article, describing the metaphors provided in the Wizard of Oz, and provide a few snippets below from the article. Enjoy...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From the article by Henry M. Littlefield:

Current historiography tends to criticize the Populist movement for its "delusions, myths and foibles. The Wonderful Wizard of Oz has provided unknowing generations with a gentle and friendly Midwestern critique of the Populist rationale on these very same grounds. Led by naive innocence and protected by good will, the farmer, the laborer and the politician approach the mystic holder of national power to ask for personal fulfillment. Their desires, as well as the Wizard's cleverness in answering them, are all self-delusion. Each of these characters carries within him the solution to his own problem, were he only to view himself objectively. The fearsome Wizard turns out to be nothing more than a common man, capable of shrewd but mundane answers to these self-induced needs. Like any good politician he gives the people what they want. Throughout the story Baum poses a central thought; the American desire for symbols of fulfillment is illusory. Real needs lie elsewhere.

Thus the Wizard cannot help Dorothy, for of all the characters only she has a wish that is selfless, and only she has a direct connection to honest, hopeless human beings. Dorothy supplies real fulfillment when she returns to her aunt and uncle, using the Silver Shoes, and cures some of their misery and heartache. In this way Baum tells us that the Silver crusade at least brought back Dorothy's lovely spirit to the disconsolate plains farmer. Her laughter, love and good will are no small addition to that gray land, although the magic of Silver has been lost forever as a result. The Silver Shoes furnish Dorothy with a magic means of travel. But when she arrives back in Kansas she finds, "The Silver Shoes had fallen off in her flight through the air, and were lost forever in the desert" (p.259). Were the "her" to refer to America in 1900, Baum's statement could hardly be contradicted.

Noteworthy too is Baum's prophetic placement of leadership of Oz after Dorothy's departure. The Scarecrow reigns over the Emerald City, the Tin Woodsman rules in the West and the Lion protects smaller beast in "a grand old forest." Thereby farm interests achieve national importance, industrialism moves West and Bryan commands only a forest full of lesser politicians.
luckypierre
(12/07/2003; 00:17:02 MDT - Msg ID: 112995)
**** 405.50 ****
The price will consolodate for a couple of days before resuming its upward trend.
Golden Era
(12/07/2003; 01:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 112996)
(No Subject)
******$408.20******

POG @ $500 in 2004 is meant to be.
Economan
(12/07/2003; 05:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 112997)
*******$400.60*******
$500 gold in 2004 is just a 1 year increase of 25%, a very reasonable expectation. The piles of dollars around the globe are being blown around and will create a huge drift into gold. It's inevitable. (This coming week, I expect a little push back first.)
Truthcaster
(12/07/2003; 07:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 112998)
****Contest**** 398.70****
The dollar is due for a little pop this
next week which should push gold back to
test the 390's so thinking here would be
****398.70**** for the contest
luckypierre
(12/07/2003; 08:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 112999)
**** 405.5 ****
Posting in tenths to correct my earlier guess.
Believer
(12/07/2003; 08:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113000)
Pricenostication
*****401.4*****
Yes, Gold will go to 500 during 2004, but only briefly! But, so will silver!
sophmore
(12/07/2003; 08:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113001)
call to contest

******* 411.1o ******

Why would Gold pass $500 in 2004 ? I use someone elses reasoning. When the $ was $ 0.90 in the early 80ties Gold was $600.00 . The $ is now below 0.90 so Gold should or might soon be closer to $600.00
KB
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 09:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113002)
More "Electronic" Gold
http://in.news.yahoo.com/031126/58/29toh.htmlsnip;
Mumbai, Nov. 26: Even as a slew of electronic commodity exchanges is being set up in the country, representatives from foreign commodity exchanges are flocking here to tap the fast emerging opportunities.

Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre executive director David Rutledge, who was in town recently, said, "Dubai is a point of consumption like Singapore and not a centre of production like India."

Rutledge scouted for synergies even as the Indian electronic commodity exchanges have started to get organised. Last week, a commodity exchange, promoted by Financial Technologies and a couple of commodity associations, was activated by Mukesh Ambani. The Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange are also promoting commodity exchanges.

However, Rutledge was here to sell a new concept called electronic commodity receipt. The new Dubai Commodity Receipts (DCR) system is a major step forward to ease trades in commodities. "Warehouse receipt is the basic document for commodity trade finance. Using this receipt, a borrower can prove to a bank that he holds a commodity of a certain type and quality in a warehouse," Rutledge said.

comment;
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CyberGold, get you some and let us do the driving.

Boilermaker and Devout Skeptic
steady
(12/07/2003; 09:13:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113003)
43 + >= $1 FRN increas. gets 10 grm free! huh?
the way i see to trade physical gold on the china exchange is with the following ratio in mind buy 43 ten gram contracts or 430 grams, when the price of gold goes up 1 federal reserve note, you could sell, nine 10 gram contracts back and have 10 grams for free, then you take the fiat and do it again. yes there is a trading fee invlved but im sure another .01-.10 increase in the pog would cover it as well.

yes your fiat will have ever decreasing gold purchasing power and you will have to have ever increasing price rises to keep pace with the 43 to one ratio but thats why it be imperative to get in now with as much fiat turned to physical gold so u get the most gold for your fiat, but thats how id want to do my gold mining in the 21st centuary
Cometose
(12/07/2003; 10:04:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113004)
asteroids/security./gold
Just when I thought the government and elitist control freaks had socially engineered everything and all the peoples of the earth into a hypnotic stupor using mass media to prevail upon our feeble minds politically correct perceptions of reality......and when bankers have derivitized all possible scenarios because of the wonder of computerdriven models to bring us EConomic BLISS........
Darned if the unknown isn't producing something outside of the control freaks' social engineering perview and realm........an asteroid coming betweeen the earth and the moom 93,000 miles from earth right now.........hmmmmmm.......

There are more on the way , too....I'm sure, based on my sources that indicate our Solar System has now entered a very interesting place in the universe that is less stable than where we have been ......before....

God is NOT dead, The BIBLE is TRUE ; and ITS PROPHESIES REAL.......It's time to quit listening to the NOISE, To LOOK UP ......and PRAY

Gold will weather this STORM ......but if in the future an asteroid hits the moon in big enough mass to dislodge part of the moon's mass....
it will cause an alteration to occur in the TIMEPIECE in the Universe .....and the DAYS ON EARTH WILL GROW SHORTER because the friction caused by the electromagnetic alteration in the clock will be lessened.....the earth will spin faster....causing the days to go by faster...

THE MEDIA and GOVT will be coming with much deception and lies in the future ......
The CURTAIN is however, still going to go up in OZ and reveal the LIES , DARKNESS AND DECEPTION.....

Our choice then will be the same as today , whether to embrace the TRUTH or LIES , embrace the LIGHT or DARKNESS
WE are either sojourners here , or we are subjects...who owe our allegiance to some Platform.....I will live and die a sojourner .....Subjects ( of the Monarchy) and being subject became passe in the 1700's

phil288
(12/07/2003; 10:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113005)
******401.5******
Thanks again to MK for this unique opportunity at temporary fame. I think that although gold may well trade for over $500 in 2004, by year's end deflation will be biting hard, interest rates will be up, and even gold will be sold down to raise fiat for imploding debt repayments. Serious inflation will be on the horizon, but not yet. Gold will still be the place to be in a physical sense. Got gold!
Mountain Top
(12/07/2003; 10:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113006)
******$211.00******
Yes, gold will most certainly hit $500.00 /oz. in 2004. It would have hit that and more before now but for the manipulation that has taken place and is taking place. Apparently, the plan is to allow the worthless FRN down softly, hence the intervention. They cannot prop up a worthless dollar for ever. Less than worthless actually since it is a symbol of debt of historical proportions.
Mountain Top
(12/07/2003; 10:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113007)
******$411.00******
Please correct my guess from $211.00 to $411.00. Thank you
Houston
(12/07/2003; 11:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113008)
****$406.30****
I believe with Taiwan's referendum vote set in March 2004 and its passing of independence will prompt an attack by China. This single act will cause gold to, at least momentarily, reach $500 next year.

One last note. In traveling by air recently has anyone wondered what a mint tube of 20 one-ounce American gold eagles look like in the airport security scanning screen? I put one in my carry-on luggage and was amused with the TSA running my bag through their system three times, mystified as to what a solid black rectangular shaped item (on a color monitor) could be. I was required to take the tube out of my bag and show it to one of the TSA personnel. She said she just wanted to see the container. She said I was NOT required to show her what was inside the tube even though it is translucent. I decided to show her with the understanding that she wouldn't tell anybody. Her jaw almost hit the examining table when I showed her the top eagle in the tube. No doubt she didn't keep it a secret for long.
Bound Spirit
(12/07/2003; 11:49:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113009)
*****396.0*********
Will the dollar collapse enough to be equal to 0.002 troy ounces of gold? Probably, although I continue to be amazed at the abilities of global CB's to engineer this slow release. I guess if I was trying to tread water in a glass bowl, my attention would be well concentrated, too.

Too bad there's a lid on the bowl and the water just keeps coming. Keep treading anyway - who knows, hope springs eternal.
Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 12:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113011)
Grasping at the Statistics on the Self-Employed
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/06/business/06impact.htmlECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Grasping at the Statistics on the Self-Employed
By FLOYD NORRIS

Published: December 6, 2003

The self-employed came to the rescue last month, and the result was that the unemployment rate came down even as companies were hiring fewer people than most economists had expected.

The self-employed are a group that statisticians have a hard time dealing with, and the apparent growth in that group may or may not be a good sign for the economy. Some people who say they are self-employed may really be out of work and trying to bring in money as consultants or freelance workers. Others may be doing very well, living a dream of boss-free success.

In any case, the government reported that the number of self-employed workers rose by 156,000 last month, to 9.2 million. That gain was a primary reason that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9 percent. . .

But John Vail, a senior strategist of Mizuho Securities USA, disagreed. "This is quite a strong employment report," he said. "Nonfarm payrolls were disappointing, but when combining with the rise in self-employed, which include many Internet-based entrepreneurs, the number was very healthy."

Mr. Vail's examples of such entrepreneurs included spammers, the people who fill e-mail in boxes with unwanted mail. It is not clear how many of them there are, but there is no doubt most Americans would be quite happy if there were fewer.

Goldilox:

A brand new spin on the bone pile. Last year, the unemployed were called "unwilling to look for work", Now they're being called "self-employed". When Mr. Floyd talks about the two exrtremes (hopeful "consultants" vs. real self employed), I imagine the correlation between many millions of musicians vs. thousands of self-supporting music professionals, or the similar disparity between millions of amatuer athletes vs. thousands of professional athletes. Success rates of 1:1000 are not encouraging or even realistic for most people.

Vail's point about "spammers" and "internet" self-employed is poorly thought out, as well. Spamming is rapidly becoming illegal in many states, so he is suggesting a rise in crime as a solution to employment problems. The various internet schemes like buying and reselling "widgets" on Ebay are more often the last gasp of the desparate to capitalize on the huge internet audience when their local market is saturated. Most successful internet retailers are already successful brick and mortar retailers who use the internet to grow their share. They are not as likely to be new entrepenuers.
Melting Pot
(12/07/2003; 12:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113012)
*****$400.20*****
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." --Human Action, p. 572.

The American economy and dollar, like Enron has been built upon credit expansion that will contract pushing gold to new highs....
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/07/2003; 13:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113013)
This year you can beat the holiday rush
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/necklaces/Byzantine-grad.htmlAvoid the crowded malls.
Shop here and you may park conveniently in your own driveway!
Browse leisurely through our online catalog.
Enjoy fast reliable FedEx delivery right to your door.

Golden gifts from a name you know you can trust.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. -- since 1973
www.usagold-jewelry.com
Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 13:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113014)
Holiday Sales Are Restrained So Far
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34880-2003Dec4.htmlLuxury, Discount Stores Fare Best Early in Season

By Dina ElBoghdady
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 5, 2003; Page E01


The crowds that swarmed the stores the day after Thanksgiving did not lift November retail sales as much as some of the nation's largest chains had hoped, especially at department stores that cater to middle-income consumers.


After tallying results from 74 retail chains yesterday, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York found that sales at stores open at least a year (or same-store sales) were up 3.6 percent in November from a year earlier. But they were below the bank's 4 percent forecast and extremely uneven. Luxury retailers and off-price chains did booming business, while many merchants between struggled.

"The retail industry is in a transition to better times," said Michael P. Niemira, the economist who tallied the sales results. "But that transition is not smooth." . . .

The pattern makes sense because spending among upper-end consumers who frequent luxury chains has been picking up since mid-year, said Frank Badillo, senior economist at consulting firm Retail Forward Inc.

A year ago, these high-income consumers tightened their purse strings when their investments took a beating. But now that the stock market is on a rebound, they're spending more freely, Badillo said.

"But the middle- and down-market consumers, mostly blue-collar workers, have been hurt by continuing issues with the job market and unemployment," he said. . . .

But that [third-quarter] momentum will be tough to sustain given that third-quarter spending was fueled by one-time factors, such as the Bush administration's tax rebate checks and mortgage refinancing money that is no longer flowing as freely with interest rates off their lows, Hoyt said.

"Some cash may be left over," Hoyt said. "But the consumers are not receiving anything like that amount of money right now."

Goldilox:

Santa's elves may be joining the bone pile soon. High end sales and low end sales are looking OK, but middle of the market stores are struggling still. No one is proclaiming miracles in the retail markets.

Chris Powell
(12/07/2003; 13:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113015)
Sinclair see the big one ahead as Turk reports breakout of 'Fear Index'
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1799Sinclair sees "the big one," a "runaway freight train"
with "$529" written on it, as Turk reports breakout
in the "Fear Index":

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1799


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 13:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113016)
Investor nation?
snippit:

Investor nation: The number of U.S. households that own mutual funds fell to 53.3 million in July, (47.9 percent of total households) from 54.2 million (49.6 percent) in July 2002, according to a survey by the Investment Company Institute, a fund-industry trade group. The survey also found that the number of individuals owning mutual funds slipped to 91.2 million from 94.9 million in 2002. About 33 percent of all households -- or 36.4 million -- owned mutual funds inside employer-sponsored retirement plans, the institute said.

Goldilox:

I found this at the end of an article on long-term health care and individual retirement funds shortages. It should be the headliner, but the press doesn't like to tell us how many folks are jumping ship as a reaction to the MF scandals. I bet some of those 2.3 million souls are investing their money right here at CPM!!
Merlinsen
(12/07/2003; 14:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113017)
*****415.1*****
500$ in 2004? Oh yes, and much more. We are in the slow motion part of a geometric progression, moving to the rapidely accelerating part that will lead us to the explosive part. NIA.
Cuda
(12/07/2003; 14:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113018)
******401.9******
Yes, POG will hit $500 in 2004.
With elections around the corner, and the strong dollar policy nonsense being pushed into the mainstream by the government, so many people are losing trust in these manicured reports, our leadership, and our buck.
While doing my christmas shopping, everything I looked at had a "MADE IN" some other country. With the dollar getting weaker I welcome all the tourist to the USA, so they may purchase all the USA sovieners they want that were "MADE IN" China. It is great being the middle man and taking a profit.
What will happen when we no longer can get these cheap prices? What will McDonalds do when they can longer afford the cheap toy in the kids meal?
We are headed for some interesting times up ahead.

"Happy Holidays"

Cuda
ageka
(12/07/2003; 14:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113019)
Gold Contest
***414.60***
Gold will go over 500 because gold will start to rise in all other currencies and with a declining dollar 500 and much more is assured .
AGK
otish mountain
(12/07/2003; 14:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113020)
******407.10******
A call to contest brings this dwarf from his winters work of restoration of runes deep within the mountain. The larder is full of summer's bounty, and the last of the wild berry wine has been bottled. Efforts now are directed to preparations for the season of merriment.

Of the question our Sir Good Host has asked of us I must respond with the answer that Yes we surely will see gold priced at $500USD in 2004. Although we may be jubilant in seeing this price reached, the reasons for this rise will be disturbing.

I suspect most here at this round table have made preparations for the coming financial future by first becoming aware then preparing. When does one know when he is ready?
Gandalf the White
(12/07/2003; 14:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113021)
Sir Otish Mountain
Like I tell the Hobbits --- "One can never have ENOUGH yellow !"
<;-)
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 14:52:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113022)
Investments
This forum is rightly focused on gold as an investment asset with 5000 years of credentials. Most of us here subscribe to gold's enduring and honest qualities compared to the myriad of alternative "investments". But I am never satisfied with a one tune repertoire and am thinking about what else will be become more valuable than fiat currency.

History seems to point to classic works of art, antiques, rare things with a certified identity and productive physical assets in the ground that can't be moved such as farmland, forestland, oil, coal, metals and other stuff that is essential to our civilization. All of the US$ fiat out there will start going into this stuff. Clearly gold is the the most marketable of them all. But for those of you who want to diversify and have something more than a "stash" of precious metals think also about investing in a piece of America that will endure and prosper. Otherwise we will become owned by foreign interests.

Boilermaker
Goldendome
(12/07/2003; 14:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113023)
**************409.40**************
Will Gold hit $500. in "04? Hopefully so, As the public, if not Governments, move to personally remonitize Gold (and Silver ?). The Government controlled paper programs are running deeper into trouble; the public is slowly going to catch on and begin to protect themselves.
Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 14:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113024)
Invest in America
@ Boilermaker

You are very right in principle. However, the current FED sponsored RE bubble makes finding bargains difficult. Getting hornswaggled into a million dollar mortgage to "buy a piece of America" right now is not necessarily the most prudent investment.

However, as BB reminds us, stay out of debt (pay the house off), stash a few months supplies (don't forget fresh water) and save PMs as liquidity for future unknowns.
omegaman
(12/07/2003; 15:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113025)
*****417.20*****
Will Gold surpass $500 in 2004? Yes. Emphatically, Yes. Why you may ask. The big three deficits, as shown in many commentaries as well as---Are you ready?---History once again repeating itself as it always has and always will. Let's call it human nature and the inability of the general populace to grasp the reality of "those who do not understand history are doomed to repeat it" again and again and..... All the pieces are in play. Let the games begin.
Dollar Bill
(12/07/2003; 15:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113027)
*>*.........+
Sir Boilermaker,
You can play the up and downs of the bubbles.
You know the fed is going to inflate certain bubbles, and that certain factors are going to result from this giant
fiat bubblemania.
Real estate scares me, I cant imagine the thinking going on in all the purchasers minds. But, there is money to be made on lemmings as long as you get out of the race just before they come to the cliff.
Other things are a no brainer, but it takes someone to clue us in. Like commodities should have been an early forum guess as something that would bubble as a result of the fed behaviours. And I am sure, that if we go through archives, we will see notice given here to that effect well in advance of it happening.
We were well notified about the crest of the stock market bubble slow turn at the top just before the bear hit back in 2000. It was discussed here in tech terms clearly just as it was peaking slowly just before it turned.
Also, dot com cash burn rates were discussed here giving lots of clues as to which companies were good short bets.
Also, Gold was proclaimed an insane value when it touched its lows. And here, the 15 european central bank announcement about stopping gold leaseing was discussed in detail and it helped us in decideing what actions to take.
Also, the bond bubble was seen in advance here.
Also, the dollar bubble was seen in advance here.

You really cant say this forum has a one song playlist.
Every sensible financial bet was discussed here in time to make your move ahead of the market.

You can even play gold against and with the fed.
They support declines that you can make money on. And they
allow, or cant fight, rises. You can make money on them also. Buying and selling highs and lows.

Some guys are getting incomprehensibly wealthy riding the bubbles. Any of them would be well served reading this forum. Sir Rich has been alerting about the silver market.
Have you discussed it with him?
Read his posts? Black Blade has done an amazing job keeping us abreast of gas news. Amongst other important issues.
How much could you make by reading just these two guys?
Not to mention all the other posters and MK.
Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 16:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113028)
Amen
@ Dollar Bill

I can only add "Amen" to your list!

And, if this isn't every reader's home page, you better have a damn good reason!
Cougar
(12/07/2003; 16:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113029)
**** $411.40 ****
We will see Gold at $500.00 in 2004 because the upward trajectory is well under way as the US$ crumbles. There is only one direction for Gold - up!
Goldilox
(12/07/2003; 16:59:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113030)
Aussie Gold trade
So far this morning in Sydney, every glich down is met by a tick back up. I have never seen a flatter chart when there was actually trading taking place. Don't know the volumes, so they might be a factor.
otish mountain
(12/07/2003; 17:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113031)
Sir Gandalf
As I Suspected. A continuous process of preparation and of learning.
Caradoc
(12/07/2003; 17:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113032)
****501.0****
A big "no" to 2004 but only because I see "500 by Christmas" as a nice present for all of us, just as "400 by Thanksgiving" was a nice complement to the previous holiday.

A merry winter solstice to all, and as the days begin to lengthen, may more of your friends and relatives begin to "see the light" about how to preserve their wealth.

Caradoc

mas
(12/07/2003; 17:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113033)
From the Privateer on the Euro.
The Euro is strengthening against the US Dollar because the European Union (EU) actually has a global
current account surplus. In fact, Europe's surplus just widened to 7.7 Billion Euros in September, while
the US stands with record breaking deficits on current account of approximately $US 46 Billion - each
and every month. Further, the European Central Bank (ECB), in sharp contrast to the Bank of Japan
(BOJ), is NOT aggressively accumulating US Dollars. The BOJ, acting at the behest of the Ministry of
Finance, has sold a record 17.8 TRILLION Yen ($US 164 Billion) this year alone to try to stem an 8.5
gain in the Yen that threatens the country's export industries. The ECB has calmly seen the Euro climb to
above 1.20 per the US Dollar. Why should the ECB worry? The EU group of nations combined all stand
with a global current account as well as trade surplus and even more important, this has been
accomplished WITHOUT a rip snorting internal credit expansion. What a higher Euro does for the EU
economies is to lower their costs of core resources, oil, etc. That is the same as lowering the operating
costs for most of their plant and equipment. Europe, with these now lower input costs, can actually in
many cases, afford to lower the international prices of their exports and still not take any loss.
Great Albino Bat
(12/07/2003; 17:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113034)
Hear! Hear! The GAB seconds Goldilox and Dollar Bill!!

Indeed, thanks to our host MK and his wise supervision, this site, in recent years, has registered a remarkable record of foresight, prudence and good judgement, contributed by thinking individuals all over the world.

Here we have had at hand - AT NO COST TO THE READER! - an outstanding fountain of sound advice on all the investment opportunities or pitfalls of our time.

World's Best! That's www.usagold.com/cpmforum!

Thank you BB, Randy, MK and admin!

The GAB
21mabry
(12/07/2003; 18:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113035)
Bob Prechter
On Jim Puplavas show Bob Prechter continues to say gold is not the place to be and he does not see silver prices rising higher in the future.From what I have seen most eliote wavers insist gold has only risen against U.S.D and is not in a world wide bull market.Mr.Prechter says the big fiat will be made in shorting the Dow and S&P indexes.21
Operative
(12/07/2003; 18:25:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113036)
The Black Knight
Forget "Big Blue" and that Russian too! The best game is now being played out in real time. Some viewers have even speculated that the Black Knight aka Sir Greenspan may be delt his fate by the lowly esteemed, golden pawn, aka, goldbug. Black Knight has left only limited moves, and the timer is counting down.
Cometose
(12/07/2003; 18:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113037)
Mabry post / Prechter commentary
In my time observing Churches and Market Prognosticators I have become aware of a principle that may be pertinent to both venues......When small churches need money part of their networking scheme toward supporting growth and building and programs sometimes involves recieving money from larger organizations.....In the process the larger organization takes the reigns over so to speak as to what the donee organization may say and promote as well as what they may not promote......In a addition to Prechter not promoting gold .....Jim Rogers doesn't overtly speak much about it either.....but he does speak favorably of commodities in the future because of CHINA DEMAND ON THEM ......I believe that Prechter and ROGERS are mute about the Metals because of some fraternity that each belong too that makes them mute on the metals arena......or they may be sell outs..........It's a choice people make ......on whether Truth is a priority or not.......in everything or just some things.......
Gandalf the White
(12/07/2003; 18:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113038)
REMINDER ---- LESS than six (6) hours before POG entry DEADLINE !!
NOW is the time to enter if you have not !
<;-)
Dollar Bill
(12/07/2003; 18:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113039)
*>*
Sir GAB, and amen to you.
You know, the list goes on and on.
We were also educated about virtually all investment areas involving carry trades, EURO rise in advance, dollar decline in advance, Yen and Japanese market issues, China trade and currency news, deep details of financial mechanisms at work in wall street, third world actions and thier opportunities, early notification of a vast amount of issues. Any one of them could have been to a forum members financial benefit or if not, another part of thier education and entertainment (well, it is interesting!).
And all the posters personal stories and commentaries.
We even get the best bear photo ever.
...
Operative
(12/07/2003; 18:59:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113040)
Rubber Rulers
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3950726Wall St is just as "creative" as the US Govt in compiling its figures. A good read, a good print/hand out to those who think all is well in wonderland. Physical gold, so easy to keep tabs on, if one is counting.
Gold Graber
(12/07/2003; 19:25:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113041)
$$$$$$398.30$$$$$$
$$$$$$398.30$$$$$$ No, gold will not go over $500.00 in 2004 because the ruling party will need to keep the wheels on the bus to get re-elected. If that happens, then gold will take off like a rocket as they finish their plundering in their last 4 year term.
Wky_Woodsman
(12/07/2003; 19:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113042)
****406.5*****
POG =$500+ in 2004? Yes. Pressure on the dollar, pressure on other currencies. Pressure on interest rates, pressure on RE prices. Pressure on resources, especially ME oil. If the meisters can control it, an orderly march thru POG=$500+. If not, the lions will be hungry.
Wky
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 19:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113043)
*******$406.5*******
Mine is not a very courageous vote for gold tomorrow but one of pragmatism. As for the $500 milestone it will happen sooner than most expect. Sometime in the year 2004 the gold market will melt up as the US$ goes down and the cartel is routed.

Boilermaker
timbervision
(12/07/2003; 19:39:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113044)
*****$411.80*****
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we won't see a $500 paper gold price in 2004. I had thought that $400 wasn't possible because a rising price would trigger a massive short squeeze. It hasn't, but why? How precarious is the current situation for the bullion banks? I am going to stay with this earlier understanding and suggest that we will stay well under $500 as a result of aggressive manipulation by the financial brotherhood. If they can't keep their scam in tact then we still won't see $500 gold, rather it will gap past that small, tiny, unimpressive number.
Remarx
(12/07/2003; 19:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113045)
@Goldilox, msg #113016
Right you are! I am one of those 2.3M people who no longer has any money in the stock market in any form. Some of it did indeed go into PMs from CPM. And I do not intend to go near stocks in the forseeable future. I left just before the MF scandals, but have read enough now on the US debt/defict and P/E ratio fundamentals now to be wary.
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 19:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113046)
*******411.8*****
Rats! That Waskelly Wacky Woodsman took my bet. Here's my backup.

Boilermaker
Waverider
(12/07/2003; 19:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113047)
Boilermaker...
...third time lucky if you're quick... :)
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 19:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113048)
******$403.8*****
I give up. One more bet. Please let it be untaken.

Boilermaker
Boilermaker
(12/07/2003; 19:49:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113049)
Waverider and Others
Please let me have my third choice. I'm a poor old man who has to get some sleep.

Boilermaker
SWEET 16
(12/07/2003; 20:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113050)
Contest
****485.00****

An additional 30% drop in the dollar will yield a 30% rise in gold. This will happen in 2004. I can hardly wait.

Sweet 16 (now 17)
Ananse
(12/07/2003; 20:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113051)
*****415.5*****
$500 gold - yes, with that bouncing ball from the silent movie era keeping time - up and down. If the ups and downs were put on a muscial scale, what tune would we hear? I will be 62 on December 9, so I hope I will hear Happy Birthday!
Gandalf the White
(12/07/2003; 21:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113052)
TA TA TAAAAAA Tick Tock !!!!
ABOUT THREE (3) HOURS to go before Entry DEADLINE !Don't wait like the "POOR" Ol'e Sir Boilermaker and take three tries before he finally got an "UNTAKEN" entry.
IT may get active near the CLOSE !! YOU could "miss out" !
<;-)
Maiden Fan
(12/07/2003; 21:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113053)
****396.50****
I don't think we will see gold hit $500/oz in 2004. The fact that this is an election year means that the administration will pull out all stops to make the economy appear healthy going into the 2004 presidential election. There are other powerful foreign interests aligned with this administration that will help to see to it that the price stays down to help get this president re-elected.
7nomads
(12/07/2003; 21:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113054)
*****403.0*****
Will Gold reach $500 in 2004? No, but it will get close. The effects of inflationary policy cannot be held off forever.
Trapper
(12/07/2003; 21:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113055)
****404.90****
I do belive that we will hit $500.00 in "04 as the public will not buy until we get higher. I saw this in the 70's, once gold and silver went up big then they all wanted some but try to sell them on gold now...no way. The madness of crowds indeed. Well just "live small" and enjoy the ride.
GoldCoaster
(12/07/2003; 21:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113056)
*****409.70*****
Will Gold be at US$ 500 sometime next year? I think it will but to me that is relativly unimportant as the POG has been going backwards in my currency.I will feel a little more jubilant if it breaks out in A$ terms.AS Gold shows the way in a good many currency's people here will realize Gold for what it is too.
Draco
(12/07/2003; 21:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113057)
****419.10****

The POG has been rising at an ever increasing rate over the past two or three years. The chart on gold (and mining stocks) is starting to look parabolic. At the current exponental rate of increase, gold will have no problem of reaching $500 in 2004.
The powers that be will try to keep everything in control at least until the November elections are over. After that ...all bets are off. I won't be surprised to see $600 by the end of next year. Get every little bit of gold (and silver) you can while it's so heavy for the FRN's. Thanks Wizard and MK for all you do.
Electrum
(12/07/2003; 21:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113058)
*** 411.7 ***
500 Gold in 2004 Yes !!!!! The time for just weights and measures has arrived. To the bankers its a barbaric
relic But the LORD said that the gold of that land is good. Gen 2-12 I cast my lot with the LORD. Fiat is an unjust measure as its value can be usurped by the bankers
Gandalf the White
(12/07/2003; 22:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113059)
TA TA TAAAAA ABOUT TWO (2) HOURS to go before entry DEADLINE !
POG CONTEST ENTRIES as of about 22:00 (Denver time) SUNDAY 12/7/03

ONLY TWO (2) HOURS to go before ENTRY DEADLINE !!! Tick Tock, Tick Tock !

Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !

Contest Entries
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $501.0 **** Caradoc (12/7/03; 17:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 113032)

**** $500.0 **** goldquest (12/6/03; 12:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112968)

**** $485.0 **** SWEET 16 (12/7/03; 20:21:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113050)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $419.1 **** Draco (12/7/03; 21:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 113057)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $417.2 **** omegaman (12/7/03; 15:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 113025)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.5 **** Ananse (12/7/03; 20:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 113051)

**** $415.1 **** Merlinsen (12/7/03; 14:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 113017)
**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.6 **** ageka (12/7/03; 14:25:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113019)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (12/06/03; 21:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112990)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.6 **** Tranquility Base (12/06/03; 22:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112991)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)

**** $411.8 **** timbervision (12/7/03; 19:39:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113044)
**** $411.7 **** Electrum (12/7/03; 21:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113058)
**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $411.4 **** Cougar (12/7/03; 16:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 113029)

**** $411.1 **** sophmore (12/7/03; 08:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 113001)
**** $411.0 **** Mountain Top (12/7/03; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 113007)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)
**** $409.7 **** GoldCoaster (12/7/03; 21:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113056)
**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.4 **** Goldendome (12/7/03; 14:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113023)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.5 **** heavy mettle (12/06/03; 20:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112989)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)
**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)
**** $407.1 **** otish mountain (12/7/03; 14:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 113020)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

**** $406.3 **** Houston (12/7/03; 11:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113008)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.5 **** luckypierre (12/07/03; 00:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112995)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)
**** $404.9 **** Trapper (12/7/03; 21:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 113055)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.4 **** Shanti (12/6/03; 15:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112976)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.8 **** Boilermaker (12/7/03; 19:46:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 113048)

**** $403.6 **** commish (12/06/03; 22:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112992)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $403.0 **** 7nomads (12/7/03; 21:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113054)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.9 **** Cuda (12/7/03; 14:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113018)

**** $401.5 **** phil288 (12/7/03; 10:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 113005)

**** $401.4 **** Believer (12/7/03; 08:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113000)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $400.6 **** Economan (12/7/03; 05:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112997)

**** $400.2 **** Melting Pot (12/7/03; 12:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113012)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.7 **** Truthcaster (12/7/03; 07:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112998)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)
$$$$ $398.3 $$$$ Gold Graber (12/7/03; 19:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113041)

**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $396.5 **** Maiden Fan (12/7/03; 21:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 113053)

**** $396.0 **** Bound Spirit (12/7/03; 11:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 113009)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $391.7 **** Crosswind (12/6/03; 17:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 112981)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)

Yukon
(12/07/2003; 22:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113060)
*******$411.90*******
Gold should easily hit $500 in 2004. Both fundamentals and the technical picuture look bullish while the internals of the market are all systems go for moves to new highs.

Get your physical gold now and store it yourself. Just be sure to have insurance of your own making.

Gold...warming the hearts, minds, and freedoms of men in the great Northeast!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon
Simply Me
(12/07/2003; 22:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113061)
*****$435.00*****
Yes, I think we'll see gold break $500 per oz. early in 2004 as interest rates begin to rise, and gold's recent gains get a little air-time on the financial channels. Then we'll see a retracement, and all the financial talking heads will be spouting "Well, that was it folks. Gold bull's over. You can all come back to the stock market now."

I expect gold to go sideways somewhere in the mid-$400's from mid to late 2004, while equities put on a nice election-year show. Then, after Bush is re-elected, all economic hell's gonna break loose sometime between 2005 and 2008. Bush, Snow, and a possibly reluctant Greenspan have held the tide back longer than anyone thought they could. But the dam is sprouting leaks all over the place. I can smell gold-rush in the air, and I'll bet Mr. Greenspan can, too. I see him retiring in 2005. He'll want out before his reputation is besmirched by the economic pain this country is going to go through as the US dollar loses its hegemony.

Simply Me
(Been reading everyone's posts every day. Great stuff!)
Homer
(12/07/2003; 22:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113062)
****397.3****
Gold will not go over $500 in 2004. The POG will continue to be manipulated to keep it under $500.
DoubleEagle
(12/07/2003; 22:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113063)
****404.3****
I hate to be a pessimist, but I think they'll probably keep gold capped below $500 next year. I do think we'll see steady trade about $450, which from my perspective will still be nice. The election will be all, and keeping the good news coming will be a high priority. If we do see $500, I think it will be post-election, late November-December.
heavy mettle
(12/07/2003; 23:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113064)
Gold Shares

With the ever increasing interest in gold and much liquidity running around for a home, the PTB would rather have dollars placed in gold and silver shares than the real thing for obvious reasons. The lagging XAU hedged dogs still have to be fed for show while helping them offset losses. Simple logic then would have it that the recent run-up in gold shares is far from over and will continue into a parabolic short term bull market top. Then a retraction only after most of the buy high sell low crowd are on board. Time frame for a correction should be within the next few months.

I tend to believe that liquidity can be and IS directed by the FED after creation through incentives and blatant market manipulation. Meanwhile we are conditioned to believe the erroneous fact that the FED cannot control liquidity once out the door because it's in the hands of the individual banks and borrowers. Funneling of funds to different markets is easier to control afterwards and is then easily spun as asset appreciation rather than inflation; many asset classes are left out of CPI for possibly these reasons.
Gandalf the White
(12/08/2003; 00:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113065)
OFFICAL LISTING of December POG CONTEST ENTRIES !!
GOOD LUCK to all -- and we will see the WINNER on Tuesday afternoon !Entries are listed in order of "decreasing values" !
===
Contest Entries

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (12/2/03; 02:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112669)

**** $501.0 **** Caradoc (12/7/03; 17:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 113032)

**** $500.0 **** goldquest (12/6/03; 12:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112968)

**** $485.0 **** SWEET 16 (12/7/03; 20:21:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113050)

**** $469.0 **** DummyANI (12/2/03; 01:43:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112668)

**** $444.0 **** A Canadian (12/3/03; 01:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112740)

**** $435.0 **** Simply Me (12/7/03; 22:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113061)

**** $430.0 **** Zhisheng (12/2/03; 08:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112678)

**** $428.7 **** J-Bullion (12/2/03; 09:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112685)

**** $424.4 **** Slowman (12/2/03; 17:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112717)

**** $420.0 **** touquoy (12/4/03; 20:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 112853)

**** $419.1 **** Draco (12/7/03; 21:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 113057)

**** $417.8 **** The Hoople (12/2/03; 11:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112692)

**** $417.2 **** omegaman (12/7/03; 15:27:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 113025)

**** $416.0 **** Sundeck (12/2/03; 19:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112722)
**** $415.9 **** Time For GOLD (12/5/03; 16:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112922)

**** $415.5 **** Ananse (12/7/03; 20:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 113051)

**** $415.1 **** Merlinsen (12/7/03; 14:02:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 113017)
**** $415.0 **** Gold is (12/5/03; 20:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112933)

**** $414.6 **** ageka (12/7/03; 14:25:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113019)

**** $414.1 **** Goldilox (12/2/03; 00:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112662)
**** $414.0 **** CoBra(too) (12/2/03; 17:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112714)

**** $413.3 **** Felix the Cat (12/06/03; 21:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 112990)

**** $413.0 **** Rimh (12/5/03; 13:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112909)

**** $412.6 **** Tranquility Base (12/06/03; 22:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112991)

**** $412.2 **** Skydog (12/6/03; 10:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 112959)

**** $412.0 **** a nation of one (12/6/03; 07:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 112951)
**** $411.9 **** Yukon (12/7/03; 22:11:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113060)
**** $411.8 **** timbervision (12/7/03; 19:39:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 113044)
**** $411.7 **** Electrum (12/7/03; 21:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113058)
**** $411.6 **** Buongiorno! (12/2/03; 14:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 112707)

**** $411.4 **** Cougar (12/7/03; 16:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 113029)

**** $411.1 **** sophmore (12/7/03; 08:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 113001)
**** $411.0 **** Mountain Top (12/7/03; 10:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 113007)

**** $410.8 **** Runner (12/6/03; 02:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 112941)

**** $410.5 **** balzac (12/5/03; 17:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112926)

**** $410.3 **** BlackBart (12/6/03; 08:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 112952)
**** $410.2 **** contrarian (12/5/03; 14:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112914)

**** $410.0 **** goldenpeace (12/6/03; 07:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112948)

**** $409.8 **** Gandalf the White (12/1/03; 23:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112658)
**** $409.7 **** GoldCoaster (12/7/03; 21:43:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113056)
**** $409.6 **** mikal (12/6/03; 11:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112965)

**** $409.4 **** Goldendome (12/7/03; 14:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 113023)

**** $409.1 **** Cytek (12/2/03; 20:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 112728)

**** $408.8 **** Toolie (12/5/03; 18:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 112927)

**** $408.5 **** heavy mettle (12/06/03; 20:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 112989)

**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)
**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)

**** $407.7 **** Jing Zu (12/5/03; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 112917)

**** $407.4 **** Max Rabbitz (12/6/03; 09:05:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112956)

**** $407.2 **** slingshot (12/1/03; 23:50:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 112660)
**** $407.1 **** otish mountain (12/7/03; 14:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 113020)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

**** $406.3 **** Houston (12/7/03; 11:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113008)

**** $406.1 **** mudr (12/2/03; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 112720)

**** $405.7 **** Remarx (12/6/03; 08:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 112955)

**** $405.5 **** luckypierre (12/07/03; 00:17:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 112995)

**** $405.0 **** Liberty Head (12/1/03; 23:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 112659)
**** $404.9 **** Trapper (12/7/03; 21:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 113055)

**** $404.6 **** Lothar of the Hill People (12/5/03; 15:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112920)

**** $404.4 **** Shanti (12/6/03; 15:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112976)
**** $404.3 **** DoubleEagle (12/7/03; 22:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 113063)

**** $404.1 **** Smeagol (12/2/03; 00:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112664)

**** $403.8 **** Boilermaker (12/7/03; 19:46:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 113048)

**** $403.6 **** commish (12/06/03; 22:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 112992)

**** $403.2 **** Casey (12/2/03; 07:54:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 112677)

**** $403.0 **** 7nomads (12/7/03; 21:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113054)

**** $402.8 **** eccentricventures (12/3/03; 06:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 112747)
**** $402.7 **** Shermag (12/6/03; 11:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 112966)

**** $402.3 **** makcumka (12/5/03; 06:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 112876)

**** $401.9 **** Cuda (12/7/03; 14:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113018)

**** $401.5 **** phil288 (12/7/03; 10:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 113005)

**** $401.4 **** Believer (12/7/03; 08:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 113000)

**** $401.1 **** pilgrims_gold (12/3/03; 07:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 112751)

**** $400.6 **** Economan (12/7/03; 05:16:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112997)

**** $400.2 **** Melting Pot (12/7/03; 12:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113012)

$$$$ $399.3 $$$$ Waverider (12/5/03; 00:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 112868)

**** $398.7 **** Truthcaster (12/7/03; 07:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 112998)

**** $398.4 **** seagull (12/4/03; 21:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 112860)
$$$$ $398.3 $$$$ Gold Graber (12/7/03; 19:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 113041)

**** $397.3 **** Homer (12/7/03; 22:34:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113062)
**** $397.2 **** DryWasher (12/2/03; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 112699)

**** $397.0 **** Dollar Bill (12/5/03; 06:58:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 112877)

**** $396.5 **** Maiden Fan (12/7/03; 21:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 113053)

**** $396.0 **** Bound Spirit (12/7/03; 11:49:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 113009)

**** $395.4 **** TomJIl (12/6/03; 10:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 112961)

**** $395.0 **** Goldbug 1 (12/6/03; 04:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 112942)

**** $394.6 **** specie-man (12/4/03; 20:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 112855)

**** $391.7 **** Crosswind (12/6/03; 17:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 112981)

**** $387.9 **** Sprout (12/3/03; 17:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 112782)

**** $375.4 **** Topaz (12/3/03; 02:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 112742)
---
<;-)

spotlight
(12/08/2003; 00:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113066)
gold
$407.30
The price of gold seems to be engineered (controlled) upward at a pace that will not alarm the financial system or the public. This has to be a very costly enterprise for those responsible. This probably limits the ones that can be at the control center to the suspected equalization stablization fund or its likes. However, in the case of an overwhelming financial event, gold will do what gold will do.

The other type of event I keep waiting for is to find one day that the real stuff is in very short supply and there is a waiting period for delivery. What happens then to the new gold exchange funds that purport to buy gold for new accounts and place it in vaults? $500 gold is a good bet for 2004. However, should one of the above or the unexpected occur, it's katie bar the door.
The Invisible Hand
(12/08/2003; 01:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113067)
SMIIIIIIIILE
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uThe Nikkei fell more than 3% today.
The Invisible Hand
(12/08/2003; 02:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113068)
Keep smiling!
Gold is up two dollars in London vis-a-vis Friday's NY close.
Dollar Bill
(12/08/2003; 03:20:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113069)
. , .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1102210,00.htmlJapan wants yen to be the "anchor of Asia"
DummyANI
(12/08/2003; 04:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113070)
Is it possible to keep a currency value by a trade-surplus ?
http://www.mof.go.jp/english/gbb/e1506.htmJapanese trade-surplus in 2003 is expected 16.7 trillion Yen.
http://www.mof.go.jp/bop/p15h_fy1.htm
But a total amount of Japanese Government Bonds are increased 11.5 percent at a year-to year rate.
This implies that 517.1 trillion yen (in 2003 June) from 463.6 trillion yen (in 2002 June) is increased by 53.4 trillion yen in a year. Nearly 30 percent is covered by the trade-surplus.
During the same period, an interest rate of JGB is declined from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

If the interest rate of JGB is up at only 3 percent in the next year, the total amount of JGBs will be increased by 14.5 percent, that is 75 trillion yen.
This is nearly equal to a government budget in 2004.

Japan is nearly in a bankruptcy, but a great many traders want to buy Yen, instead of US dollar. I cannot understand why a forex trader wants to buy Yen.

Bolting of POG is beginning at European market. It is very interesting to see a spike of POG over $430 per oz.

D-ANI:Buy a gold, sell a Yen
misetich
(12/08/2003; 05:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113071)
*** 419.7 ***
500 Gold in 2004 Yes !

Aften an initial trading range and consolidation between $380-425 - the price will soar over $500.00 late in 2004 - as it will in all other currencies


All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/08/2003; 05:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113072)
When in rains it pours US $
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493784959&p=1012571727088Snip:

US dollar may face renewed pressure

Analysts say that a series of tactical incentives for market participants is likely to put the dollar under further pressure in the weeks ahead. Foreign exchange economists say that European companies with dollar earnings due next year are busy protecting their revenues in euro terms by hedging against further falls in the US currency, putting more downward pressure on the greenback. "A lot of them missed the euro's rise this year and, for those with a requirement to put on hedges before the year-end, this will force them to buy euros," said Nick Parsons, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank.

***************
Misetich

A vicious cycle has barely begun. Each and everyday foreigners holding US $ see their portfolio evaporate -

What are they going to do with those $ reserves? ... one strategy is to add some more ala Japan - who print Yen adinfinitum

Tree preservationists are alarmed at the speed at which millions of forest trees are bein chopped up during the night for fiat printing -

The paper recycling business is also booming - as green paper is being substitued with "colored ones"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/08/2003; 05:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113073)
Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493786978&p=1012571727088Snip:

Brussels will give the US Congress until March next year to repeal special tax breaks for US exporters - or face punitive tariffs worth hundreds of millions of dollars on US goods shipped to Europe.

The tax breaks, enshrined in the so-called Foreign Sales Corporations (FSC) provision, benefit large US exporters such as Microsoft, Boeing and Caterpillar.

The law, which would introduce sanctions from March next year, is likely to increase pressure on Washington lawmakers to comply with a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year.

At the time, the WTO also granted Brussels the right to levy punitive tariffs on US goods worth $4bn (�3.3bn, �2.3bn) - the biggest sanctions package ever awarded - though the EU has said its sanctions will only amount to �290m ($352m, �204m) in the first year.
........................
Trade officials and experts agree that the conflict over FSC is more complex and potentially more dangerous. They point out that taxation is a particularly sensitive issue, and that the beneficiaries of FSC are more numerous and spread more evenly across the US, a notable difference from the steel conflict
****************
Misetich

The pendulum is swinging - and readjustments are necessary in the "ways" things are going to be done

EU has been flexing its "young" muscles - In the years ahead those "tender" muscles will firm up giving it more strength

Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 05:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113074)
Retail Observations
I went to both Best buy and Fry's last night to get a new ink cartridge for my printer. Best Buy was busy, but not packed. Fry's, the 70 cash register money machine had about 1/3 of their registers vacant and NO line for the first time ever since I've been shopping there. Probably not a good sign during the Christmas season.
The Invisible Hand
(12/08/2003; 06:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113075)
Re: Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks
misetich,
Under an article praising a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year, you are writing: " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
Do you mean that refusal to adapt to taxes will result in failure?
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 06:20:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113076)
More Retail
The CNBC Squawking Heads are proposing that early snow may have a negative effect on retail numbers for the weekend. They were also suggesting that Wal-Mart, because of their size, typically lags the rest of retail. This, while they were displaying a chart showing Wal-Mart stock declining so far in December.

Methinks they are preparing us for some dismal reports.
misetich
(12/08/2003; 06:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113077)
Weak dollar pitfalls
http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20031207-114043-2915r.htmSnip:

Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, complained last Thursday that the dollar had fallen 35 percent in the last three years. He said OPEC would price oil to maintain "the purchasing power of the old, good dollar."
This is all very reminiscent of the early 1970s, when OPEC first raised the price of oil in response to a falling dollar. As early as 1970, it passed a resolution at its annual conference saying it would adjust the price of oil to reflect changes in real purchasing power. The following year, it passed a resolution complaining about "worldwide inflation and the ever-widening gap existing between the prices of capital and manufactured goods ... and those of petroleum." In other words, the prices of things OPEC countries imported were rising faster than the oil that they exported.
By 1973, OPEC had enough with U.S. inflation and it moved to sharply raise the price of oil. Although the war between Israel and Egypt precipitated the price rise, it couldn't have been sustained unless supported by fundamental economic forces. These same forces also pushed up prices for gold and other commodities. Basically, the 1973 OPEC oil price increase just kept the price of oil line with other commodities. It was more jarring only because of the circumstances in which it occurred and because it happened all at once.
Nevertheless, there are those who still believe OPEC caused the inflation of the 1970s, through some sort of "cost-push" mechanism. In truth, OPEC was responding to inflation, rather than causing it. The root cause was creation of too many dollars by the Federal Reserve. This came about because Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon cajoled the Fed into running an inflationary monetary policy to keep interest rates artificially low. They also removed many of the institutional constraints that prevented previous presidents from doing the same thing.
In short, the Fed, not OPEC, caused the stagflation of the 1970s. A recent paper by University of Michigan economists Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian confirms this analysis. ........ they conclude, "The Great Stagflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had the Fed not permitted major monetary expansions in the early 1970s. ... The stagflation observed in the 1970s is unlikely to have been caused by supply disturbances such as oil shocks."
................
Sensitive commodity prices like gold are up, the dollar is down and OPEC is again complaining about lost purchasing power. It's like deja vu all over again.

***************
Misetich

It's like deja vu all over again? - Maybe..but the pitfalls are greater in the "new economy" made up of hedonics, accounting falsifications (many call it Pro-forma) astronomical debt levels, and trillions of derivatives ready to implode

Gold $500? about gold $30,000.00? -...oops I forgot that was ANOTHER poster forecast

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express


misetich
(12/08/2003; 06:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113078)
The Invisible Hand (12/8/03; 06:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 113075)
You wrote

Re: Brussels set for clash with US on tax breaks
misetich,
Under an article praising a World Trade Organisation decision that ruled the tax breaks illegal last year, you are writing: " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
Do you mean that refusal to adapt to taxes will result in failure?
........................
Misetich

Comment of " Global landscape is changing - adaptation to it is the key to success- being in denial or attempting to thwarted will result in failure as we are witnessing."
was not specific to the WTO ruling or rulings - but within the context of other superpowers emerging - thus 'confrontations' are to be expected such as those we are witnessing re: trade, Iraq etc

Comments alluded to the recognition of EU as a Superpower and not as "Old Europe" which many Americans have been used to

US is in denial and attempting to thwart EU strength with the well known - divide and conquer routine- and thus far is failing and counteracting miserably

Adaption and recognizing the emergence of others such as EU, China, Russia, Muslims is the key to success

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
Waverider
(12/08/2003; 07:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113079)
Spot 'n Spike
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1...is showing a high of $418.00 this morning! Meanwhile - the dollar's sinking like a dead fish, now 88.73.
Leigh
(12/08/2003; 08:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113080)
Strad Master and FOA
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/12/08/stradivarius.secret.ap/index.htmlHere's an interesting article on Stradivarius violins. Scientists believe a mini-ice age in the 1600s and 1700s caused trees to be denser and thus enhanced the way sound moves through the finished violins.

Tate
(12/08/2003; 08:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113081)
****408.6****
There is report on sister site from Bloomberg news art: "While investors have been buying gold lately to hedge against the risk of accelerating inflation, European central banks have been unloading the metal for years to diversify their reserves."

"Diversify" What a scam. Does anybody believe this crap? It is all to stop real money �GOLD- from competing with faked paper. Following central banks never aligned themselves or already broke IMF/World Bank ranks and started accumulating gold. They are: Russian, China, Malaysia and scores of other Asian central banks which represent independent countries. Such countries are either politically, economically or militarily immune world Ruling Masters (or that is what Ruling Masters think about themselves). As we speak, no doubt next Bloomberg report is being created to blow fresh smoke to obscure real disaster occurring world wide with fiat currencies. Before attitude towards gold can change in IMF/World Bank supporting countries, citizenry must pay price of economic hardship (think about Argentina) to such a degree that they stop voting puppet political parties and elect real leaders.
As far as central bankers, if they still exist, they will simply add three zeros to freshly printed paper and attempt to "diversify" they holdings by chasing precious gold in any form.
Does it sound like 1917 revolution? Gold Is Freedom in non-bloody way.

Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 08:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113082)
418
@ LW:

might that $418 be a misprint? Every other source I checked topped it out at 410??
steady
(12/08/2003; 09:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113083)
the process of thinking like a giant when your still a midget
so i dont type perfect, nor do i puntucate exactly correct, and ecoism needs to be refined and modifyed but let me remind you of this 1) anyone can be a parrot, or a ventrilaquist 2) the woods would be a very quiet place if only the birds that sang the best sang at all.

gold and silver
honest money for
honest people
admin
(12/08/2003; 09:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113084)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Scroll down for new Ed Stein cartoon.
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 09:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113085)
Return ride?
$407.6 - half-way back to $410. What a morning ride!!!!
Gandalf the White
(12/08/2003; 11:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113086)
NOT to WORRY --- The P&F chart should gain ANOTHER little GREEN "X" today !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe ROCKET is still headed in the CORRECT direction !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/08/2003; 12:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113087)
TA TA TAAAAAAAA -- The "KINGS OF THE HILL" today are ---
A TIE between Sir Rich and Sir Wky Woodsman !!!

SEVENTEEN people were atop the HILL during today's action.

TOMORROW is the one that counts and with the VOLATILITY shown today --- EVERYONE still has a chance !!!

GOOD LUCK ALL !
<;-)

**** $406.7 **** R Powell (12/6/03; 19:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 112988)

**** $406.5 **** Wky_Woodsman (12/7/03; 19:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 113042)

====

12/1/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $402.9 low $397.0 SETTLE $402.7
CHANGE +$5.9 Vol 12,662 YESTERDAY's OI = 12,536 DTE = 28

12/2/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $406.0 low $399.5 SETTLE $403.7
CHANGE +$1.0 Vol 1,664 YESTERDAY's OI = 7,258 DTE = 27

12/3/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $404.0 low $401.5 SETTLE $403.9
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 2,454 YESTERDAY's OI = 6,778 DTE = 26

12/4/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $405.0 low $400.0 SETTLE $403.3
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 2,672 YESTERDAY's OI = 3,635 DTE =25

12/5/03 GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $406.8 low $400.0 SETTLE $406.4
CHANGE +$3.1 Vol = 304 Yesterday's OI = 2,456

12/8/03 GCZ03 (Dec �03) HIGH $409.5 low $405.3 SETTLE $406.6
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol = 655 Yesterday's OI = 2.314
===

12/1/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH $404.0 low $397.8 SETTLE $403.8
CHANGE +$5.8 Vol 54,400 YESTERDAY's OI 188,960 DTE = 86

12/2/03 GCG04 (Feb '04) HIGH$407.0 low $400.3 SETTLE $404.6
CHANGE +$0.8 Vol 51,898 YESTERDAY's OI 192,792 DTE = 85

12/3/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $405.4 low $402.2 SETTLE $404.8
CHANGE +$0.2 Yesterday's OI 195,378 DTE = 84

12/4/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $406.2 low $400.8 SETTLE $404.2
CHANGE -$0.6 Vol 26320 Yestday's OI 195,630 DTE = 83

12/5/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $407.5 low $400.0 SETTLE $407.3
CHANGE +$3.1 Vol 42,589 Yesterday's OI = 193.726 DTE = 82

12/8/03 GCG04 (Feb �04) HIGH $410.6 low $405.7 SETTLE $407.5
CHANGE +$0.2 Vol 46.824 Yesterday's OI = 198,172
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 12:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113088)
Insurers dropping "excess" brokerage coverage
CNBC just ran a story that Travelers, AIG, and one other insurer are dropping coverage of brokerage accounts in excess of $0.5M. This insurance covers against default, not INVESTMENT losses, and has been in effect for decades, earning them millions in premiums without a single payout. The reason given was that the risks of CATASTROPHIC events are "climbing" due to issues like global security.

What did your parents tell you long ago? DON'T KEEP ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET! Just like an insurance company to stop covering depositers just before it is needed!
glennh10
(12/08/2003; 12:47:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113089)
It's getting more and more obvious
I read two inciteful posted news stories today. One about Japan wishing its yen to take the lead as the reserve currency of Asia; the other, Europeans lamenting that they missed out on taking advantage of the euro's recent rise against the U.S. dollar.

News stories such as these are blatant examples of the fraud of the current world-wide fiat system. The Japan/yen story points out the political desire to be the "lead dog" in the fiat scam, because that's the source of the gravy train; the Euro/dollar story describes in pretty obvious terms that the world-wide fiat system is first and foremost a casino, and secondarily at best, a means of exchange in a "free" market of goods and services. I am reminded of a dance floor:

There they are, the central banks of the world, all performing their dance around gold, trying to make like she's not there, while she's actually right there in front of them. There they are instead, each other's crippled fiat crooning amongst themselves on the world monetary dance floor.

As the situation devolves, as the workings of the present system are repeatedly reported, the utter fraud will become more and more obvious. And concurrently, as the need for a world-wide reserve is repeatedly brought up, gold will not be able to be ignored. The ongoing failures of the fiat system requiring constant "tweaking", an increasing call for honesty, and the repeated call for a world-wide currency, will place gold into the spotlight. The fiat days are numbered, imho.
Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 13:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113090)
(No Subject)
Gold hit near $410 an ounce today while platinum hit 23 year highs of $800 an ounce. Gold pulled back on profit taking and possibly on "heavy" Japanese currency intervention (they are scared outta their wits!). They should be. Also a section on "Starbucks Gold".

Christmas is almost upon us - get your gold gifts ordered now to get delivered on time.


Jon H. Warner
Waverider
(12/08/2003; 13:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113091)
VIP: Daily Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlHere's the link...
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(12/08/2003; 13:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113092)
Call for complete service to breath new life into your diversification strategy
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Bullion
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/08/2003; 13:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113093)
This year you can beat the holiday rush
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/bracelets/Cleopatra.htmlAvoid the crowded malls.
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Browse leisurely through our online catalog.
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USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/08/2003; 14:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113094)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Thanks Waverider - I goofed there. I am in a hurry to get to the gym and spar to practice some moves in a class competition. I should get some new weapons soon for my martial arts class. BTW, "The Last Sumarai" was a good flick though not a Tom Cruise fan it is based on a true story (with some of hollywood mixed in).

Off to the gym!
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 15:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113095)
Gold on the Banker's dance floor
@ Glenn10:

Your allegory reminds me of an experience from high school. We had a "Sadie Hawkins" variant called slave day in our school. I had a mad crush on the head Song Girl (a cheerleader dance team) who was also in my English class. I thought she was unique in that she spent her weekends working at a gas station and loved cars, so everyone thought of her as a Tomboy! Well, I finally asked her if anyone had "claimed" her as his slave for the day, and she responded that not only had no one asked HER, but another Song Girl had not been "claimed" and was feeling left out. Well, for one day in my life, I had two of the cutest sweeties in class pulling me around in my "little red wagon" as my "harem". I even wore a Sheik headdress to play the part. No, we're not married today, but we had a lot of fun - the geek and cheerleader! Besides, we jabbered about muscle cars all day and become great friends throu
gh graduation.
Moral: Never ignore a great opportunity because you think you might not measure up! To bad the CB'ers don't believe they deserve gold for reserves. They probably don't, but that's their choice.
Dollar Bill
(12/08/2003; 15:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113096)
*>*
Sir Leigh, Another thinking about Stradivarius Violins was that he used wood that was soaked in the mediteranean sea.
There is historical basis for that guess.
Wouldnt the tree ring theory mean that they could go to colder elevations and reproduce the sound as a test?
Have they release a cd of that "messiah" violin playing?
Must have.
Federal_Reserves
(12/08/2003; 15:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113097)
Stink bomb on the floor of the NYSE
http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr023.htmlRetail Sales

The ticking stink bomb.......its been farting for a while
but nobody has smelled it yet. But this next report may
be the stinker.


http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr023.html

Retail Sales Have actually been falling the last two months along with money supply numbers and everyone is ignoring it preferring instead to lap up the meaningless manufacturing (ISM) diffusion indexes which made a 20 year highs on 20 year low employment figures, and puffed up GDP numbers bloated by an incorrect price deflator. Rose colored glasses may fall off, and the gas masks go on Dec 11th!

This months retail sales report could be the trip switch for a top and turn in the stock markets!

WMT stock price falling during the XMAS sales season - not a good sign my friends! Snowbound east coast, may result in cash for XMAS presents rather than XMAS presents purchased at the stores.


Melting Pot
(12/08/2003; 15:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113098)
Online petition against naked shorting
http://www.investigatethesec.com/index.htmlIn signing this petition, you are requesting that there be an independent Congressional investigation into the Securities and Exchange Commission's actions regarding the manipulative and abusive trading practice of nakedshort selling. This petition will request that the investigation seek answers as to why this illegal trading practice has been allowed to exist for over a decade without significant enforcement and regulation to prevent it.

Since the mid 1990's, the SEC has been aware of naked short selling and failed to adequately respond to investor and company complaints alike. In recent years the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have conducted investigations into naked short selling and followed these sales through money laundering schemes used by criminal elements. Those elements jeopardize our Homeland Security. Unbelievably, the practice of naked short selling still continues to this day regardless of where the profits are going.

If the SEC has failed to take adequate counter measures to stop this illegal trading practice, we not only need to know about it, but we request an accounting of their actions.
CoBra(too)
(12/08/2003; 15:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113099)
Oh,Oh! I See ...
... Gold is not yet free!

Don't worry - it will be! cb2
slingshot
(12/08/2003; 15:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113100)
Midas Crusade
In the short time they had observed Hammerton, it was clear that the town could be taken quickly by using the torch. The town buildings although protected by walls were made of wood with thatched roofs. But the Goldbugs did not come to destroy the town. They came to drive the Dark Forces from her.
Sir M.K. looking at Hammerton began to speak.

Sir Black Blade, Disperse the wagons in the woods behind us. Insure the carpenters and their wagons are set close to the Epis. Omar, split your force in half. Place them to the north and west of our camp. The Epis will shield our southern end. Lady Waverider, bringforth enough Knights to
protect our front. Keep them out of sight in the woods.
Turning to Cougar, he said. Find the group called the Scots. Have them bring up their drummers and that musical instrument they call the pipes. Bring them quickly. I have a special act at which they are well suited to perform.

The band of warriors broke rank and rode off to carry out their orders.

Sir M.K. stayed on the bluff. He watched the Epis that split in two forming the blunted point of Hammerton and creating the Tyre river on its western side.
In short time the Scots stood Before Sir M.K.
They had with them their drums and pipes and were a bit puzzled as to what Sir M.K. had in mind with their use.

Find you a spot inside the cover of the woods yet directly in front of the west bridge. Beat your drums and play your pipes loudly. Let them know we are here.
You must play as loud as you can to cover our movements and preparations, said Sir M.K.

Almost in unison the sound of a Scottish, "Aye" was heard and were off to find the right spot.
When they did the music began with the drums.

Barrooom, Boom. Barroooom, Boom. Then the pipes came to life.

The music crossed the expanse and Sir. M.K. could see men running to their stations of battle. The music was indeed loud and must have startled the defenders for they had never heard anything like it before.

Axes and saws began to fell trees and the branches discarded into the Epis. The horsemen made their way to their apointed places.

Sir Black Blade returned to Sir M.K's side.
Think that will keep them at their posts, Sir Black Blade?
Asked Sir M.K.

It would sure keep me, answered Sir Black Blade.

The Scots played untill dark and both east and west bridges were brightly illuminatated that night.

Slingshot-----------------<>
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 15:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113101)
Metals stocks fall despite gold gain
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4E13D359%2DCBFC%2D4388%2DBFBE%2DF77CD1C733D7%7D&siteid=mktwsnippit:

"Fear of both terrorism and inflation will continue to motivate investors to find safe havens," such as gold, said Alaron metals analyst Dave Meger. "Soaring demand in foreign markets will contribute to the increase, spurred by the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar."

March copper rose early in the session but closed down 0.2 percent to 96.80 cents a pound Monday. March silver rose 1.4 percent to $5.56 an ounce.

Platinum futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange traded over $800 an ounce for the first time in 23 years Monday on bets production won't be able to keep up with demand.

Platinum for January delivery was up $11.20 at $801.90 an ounce after easing off its 1980 high of $802.00.

Platinum has risen sharply since the world's largest platinum mine, South Africa's Anglo American Platinum, last week reduced its production targets and warned of more cuts, because a strong home currency, limits its export profitability.

Goldilox:

While we've been falling all over ourselves about gold and silver appreciation (Rich), platinum has quietly topped $800/oz. Seems to me this is a very tight market where supply controls or shortages can heavily leverage pricing.
Goldilox
(12/08/2003; 16:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113102)
Naked Short selling petition
@ Melting Pot:

I know nothing about naked short-selling,and the linked web-site told me NOTHING MORE except that some criminal elements had been traced to the practice by the RCMP. I can't tell if I am for or against the petition due to a complete lack of information at the website, but I know this. When people try to scare me into voting by invoking motherhood, apple pie, or "Homeland Security" and don't bother to explain the details, I highly suspect their motives.

My response is not about support or non-support of the petition, but the website is incendiary rather than informative and should be either improved or ignored. If they want my signature, they should treat me like an adult and tell me the whole story, not just some "yellow press" tidbits.
The Invisible Hand
(12/08/2003; 16:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113103)
The SEC Petition
http://www.lysanderspooner.org/bib_new.htmThe text of the petition says "In recent years the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have conducted investigations into naked short selling and followed these sales through money laundering schemes used by criminal elements. Those elements jeopardize our Homeland Security." Am I right in interpreting this as saying that the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are the criminal elements which are jeopardizing "our " Homeland Security? What's the Homeland? A Bush creation? Is the petition calling for the immediate abolition of the FBI, SEC, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police?

When you open the site of petition, you immediately get "We, the People" � Who's that?
As Lysander Spooner put in "No Treason � The Constitution of No Authority�

NO. VI.
THE CONSTITUTION OF NO AUTHORITY
SNIP from the link:

I.
The Constitution has no inherent authority or obligation. It has no authority or obligation at all, unless as a contract between man and man. And it does not so much as even purport to be a contract between persons now existing. It purports, at most, to be only a contract between persons living eighty years ago. And it can be supposed to have been a contract then only between persons who had already come to years of discretion, so as to be competent to make reasonable and obligatory contracts. Furthermore, we know, historically, that only a small portion even of the people then existing were consulted on the subject, or asked, or permitted to express either their consent or dissent in any formal manner. Those persons, if any, who did give their consent formally, are all dead now. Most of them have been dead forty, fifty, sixty, or seventy years. And the constitution, so far as it was their contract, died with them. They had no natural power or right to make it obligatory upon their children. It is not only plainly impossible, in the nature of things, that they could bind their posterity, but they did not even attempt to bind them. That is to say, the instrument does not purport to be an agreement between any body but "the people" then existing; nor does it, either ex- [*4] pressly or impliedly, assert any right, power, or disposition, on their part, to bind anybody but themselves. Let us see. Its language is:
"We, the people of the United States (that is, the people then existing in the United States), in order to form a more perfect union, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
It is plain, in the first place, that this language, as an agreement, purports to be only what it at most really was, viz., a contract between the people then existing; and, of necessity, binding, as a contract, only upon those then existing. In the second place, the language neither expresses nor implies that they had any right or power, to bind their "posterity" to live under it. It does not say that their "posterity" will, shall, or must live under it. It only says, in effect, that their hopes and motives in adopting it were that it might prove useful to their posterity, as well as to themselves, by promoting their union, safety, tranquility, liberty, etc.
Suppose an agreement were entered into, in this form:
We, the people of Boston, agree to maintain a fort on Governor's Island, to protect ourselves and our posterity against invasion.
This agreement, as an agreement, would clearly bind nobody but the people then existing. Secondly, it would assert no right, power, or disposition, on their part, to compel, their "posterity" to maintain such a fort. It would only indicate that the supposed welfare of their posterity was one of the motives that induced the original parties to enter into the agreement.
When a man says he is building a house for himself and his posterity, he does not mean to be understood as saying that he has any thought of binding them, nor is it to be inferred that he [*5] is so foolish as to imagine that he has any right or power to bind them, to live in it. So far as they are concerned, he only means to be understood as saying that his hopes and motives, in building it, are that they, or at least some of them, may find it for their happiness to live in it.
So when a man says he is planting a tree for himself and his posterity, he does not mean to be understood as saying that he has any thought of compelling them, nor is it to be inferred that he is such a simpleton as to imagine that he has any right or power to compel them, to eat the fruit. So far as they are concerned, he only means to say that his hopes and motives, in planting the tree, are that its fruit may be agreeable to them.
So it was with those who originally adopted the Constitution. Whatever may have been their personal intentions, the legal meaning of their language, so far as their "posterity" was concerned, simply was, that their hopes and motives, in entering into the agreement, were that it might prove useful and acceptable to their posterity; that it might promote their union, safety, tranquility, and welfare; and that it might tend "to secure to them the blessings of liberty." The language does not assert nor at all imply, any right, power, or disposition, on the part of the original parties to the agreement, to compel their "posterity" to live under it. If they had intended to bind their posterity to live under it, they should have said that their objective was, not "to secure to them the blessings of liberty," but to make slaves of them; for if their "posterity" are bound to live under it, they are nothing less than the slaves of their foolish, tyrannical, and dead grandfathers.
It cannot be said that the Constitution formed "the people of the United States," for all time, into a corporation. It does not speak of "the people" as a corporation, but as individuals. A corporation does not describe itself as "we," nor as "people," nor as "ourselves." Nor does a corporation, in legal language, [*6] have any "posterity." It supposes itself to have, and speaks of itself as having, perpetual existence, as a single individuality.
Moreover, no body of men, existing at any one time, have the power to create a perpetual corporation. A corporation can become practically perpetual only by the voluntary accession of new members, as the old ones die off. But for this voluntary accession of new members, the corporation necessarily dies with the death of those who originally composed it.
Legally speaking, therefore, there is, in the Constitution, nothing that professes or attempts to bind the "posterity" of those who establish[ed] it.
If, then, those who established the Constitution, had no power to bind, and did not attempt to bind, their posterity, the question arises, whether their posterity have bound themselves. If they have done so, they can have done so in only one or both of these two ways, viz., by voting, and paying taxes.
Gondolin
(12/08/2003; 16:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113104)
Goldrush in Middle Earth
Found an article a while back in the Press from New Zealand proving that the Hobbits are wise in Middle Earth.

snip

...The Government has reported an explosion of interest from prospectors at home and overseas with a 650 per cent increase in the area of the country covered by exploration and prospecting permits.
There is now 32,000 sq km of the country covered by permits, compared to 4,950 sq km at the same time last year...

...The Government is expecting money spent on prospecting to double from $10 million this year to about $20 million a year for the next two years "We are looking at an area of the economy which, over the next 15 years or so, will make a considerable contribution to New Zealand."

...GRD Macraes... mine in Otago has producedc more than $1.1 billion worth of gold in the past 14 years.
... The other party likely to benefit is the Government, which is set to get increased royalties from mining after the passing of the of the Crown Minerals Act. Under the old Mining Act the Government missed out on royalties.

end snip.

Gondolin: Interest has really taken off in the barbaric relic. Interesting the new legislation passed gaining the Government royalties. Begs the question is this good or bad, opens the door for huge taxation of gold mining operations at a later date methinks?? Nice precedent for other Governments to follow suit? Thoughts anyone?
Dollar Bill
(12/08/2003; 17:05:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113105)
*>*
Did the US decide to trash the dollar without telling the euro boys how much the US was willing to let it go?
Much to thier detriment? Seems like the euro industries were not given a heads up as latest news is that they didnt hedge against the dollar. Or not many did.
Has the US prepared for gold to rise? Without notifying
the euro?
The gas price hike to adjust with the dollar has to hurt the euro citizens correct?
Trichet is clearly angered at the US. He bellowed about that qoute of greenspan (taken out of context?) from 99?
earlier? Where he said something like "deficeits are other countries problem"
A us official said something like "the dollar decline will be europes tax to support the iraq war"
Was the euro notified about -how much- the US was planning to lower the dollar?
Why would china and japan invest in the euro when at some point, greenspan will let interest rates rise, (without telling euro in advance?) causeing a rise in the dollar flows. investors will flock into the dollar to catch its rise, and the euro, having taken a beating in its economy from the euro's high rate, will look like a declineing investment and well, the stock market is all ups and downs, I suppose we are in for a change, a reversal, as the euro is not ready enough to upend the dollar as reserve currency.
Is the us pounding the euro to insure that the pendulum swings back?
chirac acted too soon?
Without bush, or rather, without alkida jumping the gun and attacking the twin towers too soon, causeing afganistan to be attacked too soon, and before Pakistan was in thier hands, and hussein misplayed his chess moves just enough to wind up with the US kicking him out, chirac figureing previously that the US would be crushed, so he tried to make a future with the terrorists in a supposidly
muslim freindly future with the former nazi countries who also had an "issue" with jews previously.
french forgein minister a couple years ago called israel "a mean little country", correct or not, it played to one audience only.
God, perhaps, had a cowboy like bush in there to upend the scheme, lord knows and you and I do also, gore would not have done all this.
And we would have a much different future.

Just discharging.
steady
(12/08/2003; 17:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113106)
hold on now... who said what..... to who.... when... naw u r kidding
subject continued continued below.

or in other words as the golden ball watchers sling the mud ... brought to you daily by gold bugs there watchman, fiat lovers and there army of stoge pigeons!



was it harry or jim who said banks never fail they just get swallowed up in mergers. along that same line of thinking was another statement that went banking crisis are not announced rather bankers try to find a revenue stream opperating on such a margin so as absorbing the other banks negative revenu stream wont have to much of an impact upon the first banks revenue stream.
So a derivate, neutron bomb will not be seen nor will it be heard about, rember the effects....buildings, shell are left standing, but the insides are gutted, now imagine being a sheep and cresting a hill and bingo oh wow what a beautiful city, and what nice buildings, but once given a haircut removing the temptations of roses,and a lil closer examination, the truth, or what one can infer from the obstificated mumble jumble misdirecting almost theatrical soap opperish exhaultations from on all high, can be seen..... there is nothing in those buildings and nothing backingup the system they represent.
CoBra(too)
(12/08/2003; 17:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113107)
Insisting on a strong Dollar - Says John Snow ...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001081&sid=a6Pl_DU07cXQ&refer=benchmark_currency_rates... What a pathetic show?

Let it snow, let it snow ... After all it's the season ...


While the dollar has already depreciated - some 25 to 35%, or more, depending versus whatever fiat currency - the global reserve currency has finally depreciated against all, including the ultimate real valuation - GOLD!

GOLD, the barbarous relic, laughingly duped to be last century's barter commodity at best;

Inerestingly, GOLD was called all the pejorative adjectives, as fiat promises reigned high!
Maybe, FIAT is still reigning the imbecile, to their own destructive oblivion ... Or go John Snow!

Go Gold ... cb2

mikal
(12/08/2003; 17:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113108)
@Dollar Bill
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P66213.aspIf only God HAD brought divine providence in the form of Bush Jr. we'd all have it made. But alas, he's only a royal blue-blooded puppet after all, like most of his predecessors- Clinton, Papa, Ford, Nixon etc. Expect no white Christmas at the WHITE HOUSE until they take the US Constitution and the Good Book seriously.

Bill Fleckenstein's column at the above link today, reanimates the dramatic dollar decline while applauding gold.
Excerpts:

"One of these days the dollar is going to be a problem for the world. It's decline will turn into a rout, and all of the negative consequences will be dealt with in short order... there will be no non-chaotic or painless way out."

"Yellow dog morphs into yellow stallion"

"I'm the strongest currency in the world.
Cavan Man
(12/08/2003; 17:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113109)
mikal
Hear!,Hear!
R Powell
(12/08/2003; 17:43:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113110)
Goldilox
Your words ....

"While we've been falling all over ourselves about gold and silver appreciation (Rich), platinum has quietly topped $800/oz. Seems to me this is a very tight market where supply controls or shortages can heavily leverage pricing."

Yes indeed, it is a very lightly traded market, so much so that I've never dared enter. You did not indicate that you are thinking of so doing but, if you are thinking of anything but a physical purchase, please be very careful! Do you think there are PTB that sometimes move or restrain the POG? Well the platinum market is certainly such with producers sometimes withholding production and sometimes end users refusing to buy. It's similar, I suppose, to the US government subsidizing grains and cotton and the Brazilian government buying physical coffee to restrain exports but here it is very much smaller, but market powerful, players. I'll bet Black Blade knows much more of this, maybe he'll have something to say.
Too much snow here where I live!
Rich
phil288
(12/08/2003; 18:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113111)
Monday's Puplava piece
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmPuplava's piece today will make your golden heart sing. Call MK and take care of business while you can. got gold!
R Powell
(12/08/2003; 18:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113112)
Short selling
Often history repeats the errors of the past. Perhaps nowhere is this seen more often than in the falacies of economic policies. As is customary whenever mistakes from the past are seen and felt as problems in the present, scapegoats are sought to bear the blame. Those holding power seek to exonerate themselves while others simply have no comprehension of the true causes of the problem. How many can see price inflation but know nothing of their cause in past monetary policy? They see only the present bad results of past decisions. It has been customary (from as far back as at least the 1929 stock market crash and probably much farther) to blame short selling for the markets woes.

People tend to think that markets decline only because the bears are raiding with short selling and thus, many seek to limit the practice. Perhaps, along with unlimited monetary creation, the government should simply abolish all short sales as well so that the markets could more easily become irrational bubbles and everyone in the world could invest without any fear of loss. By so doing, those whose opinions of the market are negative would, in essense, be disenfranchised from investing. After all, wouldn't we all be wealthy if the DOW were at 40,000 and the Fed. were printing much, much more money? It worked for the Japanese. I'll bet they banned all short sellers!
Thoughts?
Rich
Chris Powell
(12/08/2003; 19:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113113)
Barrick's former CEO takes aim at beer
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1801Will Barrick's former CEO do for beer what he
did for gold?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1801


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Druid
(12/08/2003; 21:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113114)
Central Bank Articles and Speeches ("BIS Review")
http://www.bis.org/review/review.htmJean-Claude Trichet: Financial stability
Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the Forum Financier
Belge, Brussels, 26 November 2003.
* * *
A. Introductory remarks
It gives me great pleasure to be here in Brussels and to address you in this very well-known forum at the kind invitation of Governor Quaden. The topic I shall be talking about today, namely "financial stability", is obviously very broad and challenging.

My main topic of discussion will be the probable consequences the profound changes currently taking place in the financial sector will have on financial stability and on the policies of the Eurosystem in this regard. The main reason why I am talking about this topic - and why we at the ECB are following the issue - is that the stability of the banking sector and the financial system at large is of the utmost importance for the Eurosystem, as it is for any central bank. It is the precondition for a successful conduct of monetary policy and the maintenance of smoothly functioning payment systems, which are
major responsibilities of a central bank.

I would like to focus on three specific developments: the increasing importance of financial markets in general and market volatility more specifically, financial innovation, and the process in hand to increase the integration of financial systems across countries.

When thinking about the major challenges for maintaining financial stability I find it useful to first look at the notion of how the "real world" deviates from the "frictionless" ideal world of academic textbooks. In order to organise my reasoning, this can serve as a useful starting point, since in the ideal world there is no such thing as financial instability. Indeed, most of the concerns over financial stability actually stem from the fact that our "real world" financial markets have frictions or - in other words -market imperfections.

A fundamental friction is that financial market participants very often have imperfect information. When information is not perfect - or when markets are not fully transparent - investors� decisions may be constantly subject to reassessment, which can lead to inevitable volatility in market prices. This does not necessarily mean that there is an inherent threat to financial stability. On the contrary, the very existence of some level of volatility indicates that markets are serving the function they are supposed to deliver - that they are an efficient exchange mechanism among economic agents. Nevertheless,
some recent episodes of extreme volatility have drawn our attention to more accurately delineating the boundary between "normal" and what could be called "harmful" volatility.

The second source of friction is that we also fall short of the ideal of having complete markets. Through the rapidly evolving process of financial innovation, new instruments - and often entirely new markets - are being created, taking us towards more complete markets and providing remedies for the shortcomings of more traditional instruments and markets. While this process clearly increases the efficiency of the financial system, some new risks may also be created along the way. A major recent example is the emergence of instruments to transfer credit risks between banks and other financial institutions. This is changing the activities and risk profiles of financial institutions, as previously credit risks were largely confined to banks.

Druid: For those of you interested in the "thoughts" of giants, I strongly encourage you to click on the posted web link and download the various speeches. In addition to the substance of what is being said, it's actually nice to read one of these speeches where you can discern some meaning.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/08/2003; 22:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113115)
An Invitation to Prospective Clients....
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 22:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113116)
@CB2, Goldilox, Chris and R. Powell (related?), and slingshot

CB2 � "Let it Snow". Incredible he is singing that old song "strong dollar policy" isn't it? Even after he already admitted earlier last month he would prefer a weaker dollar. With manufacturing and service sector jobs fleeing US shores leaving over 9% (more like 12%) unemployed US workers in its wake. It would appear that he's in a state of confusion over the "competitive currency devaluation" (currency war) issue. Still he was a mediocre CEO of a railroad company with little political experience. He had better get on the ball as we enter an election year.


Goldilox and R. Powell � Platinum has been rising on supply concerns. Platinum and palladium are not directly interchangeable for catalytic converters with one better suited for diesel and the other for gasoline internal combustion engines. The supply crisis has kicked into higher gear with a projected 40% decline in platinum production from Angloplats (the world's largest producer) for the next several years. The US producer (Stillwater now largely owned by Russia's Norilsk Nickel" and primarily a palladium producer forward sold at very low prices not once but twice with disastrous results resulting in some execs getting their walking papers), and North American Paladium (The Canadian producer � also a primary palladium producer) produce relatively little platinum. Norilsk Nickel and Russia sold the majority of their stockpiles during the Russian Bond Crisis in 1998 that brought down Long Term Capital management for "hard currency" to meet their obligations. Another problem is Zimplats the Zimbabwean producer where little production is underway due to the political crisis under the clinically insane dictator Robert Mugabe where few want to do business. That overall leaves a few minor producers of platinum while new pollution controls have gone into effect in China for example. I could go deeper into details but these are the major themes for platinum. Still, some shares could be decent holdings but as for myself I have a small stash of Canadian platinum Maple Leafs instead (mostly diversification purposes in my mix of PMs). Remember that Paladium hit over $1100 an ounce a few years ago until the dishonorable and crooked Tocom and Nymex managers changed the rules to protect favored clients (just as they did in 1980 and hurt the Hunt Brothers in the process). I would definitely stay away from the commodities exchanges � they are fixed and tend to be set against the small fry in favor of favored players. Get the "real deal" instead. MK and friends can help out if you want platinum bullion. The commodities exchanges are simply criminal enterprises in my estimation.


Chris � I hate Coors! Sorry but just a cheap terrible tasting beer as far as I am concerned, much like Olympia, Hamms, Pabst, etc. Still, Oliphant may do well in beer. The precious metals and hydrocarbon industries are completely different animals and not suited for some MBA or graduate from some school like Wharton's, Harvard, Yale, etc. It requires leadership of people who know the business and these industries are not anything like making widgets. It requires experience and intelligence in the natural resource sector � something Randall simply did not have. Making cheap crappy beer may be his niche in life.


Slingshot � the weapons are on order (Bo Staff, Chinese broadsword and Bokken � and yes, the Bokken on order is a practice sword � in black no less, therefore "Black Blade").


- Black Blade
Druid
(12/08/2003; 22:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113117)
US body challenges Basel bank capital plans
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493824431&p=1012571727304Snip.

The government insurer of US bank deposits provoked a public dispute among regulators on Monday by releasing a study that questions the wisdom of proposed new international capital rules for banks.


The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said the Basel II proposals could sharply reduce bank capital, hampering the ability of US officials to prevent bank failures. The FDIC suggested the public interest would be better served by retaining some sort of minimum capital requirements.

This position strikes at the heart of the Basel effort, which attempts to align capital requirements more closely with risk calculations made by banks. George French, deputy director of the FDIC, said he doubted that "the optimal capital level of the bank is whatever the banker calculates it to be". Laws dating back to the bank failures of the 1980s required US regulators to be more careful.

"The weakness or failure of a large systemically important bank has consequences far beyond the stakeholders of that bank."

He added: "This is an issue that the US needs to resolve for itself. I wouldn't say we are laying this on the European Basel committee at this time."

Druid: We are in the midst of major policy changes.
Druid
(12/08/2003; 22:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113119)
Study: 401(k) investors are ready to save more
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20031207-9999_1b7directors.html
Snippet:


BOSTON � Many investors in 401(k) retirement plans expect to put more money into their accounts next year after the stock market staged a strong rally this year, a study released last week shows.

The study by Boston-based mutual fund company Fidelity Investments found that 82 percent of 401(k) investors plan to raise their contribution levels or keep them the same next year.

Nearly 70 percent of all U.S. workers have 401(k) plans and contribute, on average, 7 percent of their wages to the plans every year, the Fidelity report said.

"Participation levels remain high and eligible workers have not backed away from their steady contribution levels over the years, which are two important measures of the health of the system," according to Kathryn Hopkins, executive vice president of Fidelity Institutional Retirement Services Co., the biggest provider of 401(k) plans.


Druid: This article is really painful to read.
Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 23:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113120)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

I came away from the gold conference with a different view. I had been cautious going into the gold show. However, prominent media stories about gold being overvalued followed subsequently by cautious statements coming from several prominent newsletter writers were rapidly changing my view. After witnessing the degree of caution at the gold show I believed that gold prices and gold shares would be heading higher. There was too much caution. The key indicator for me was this weekend's edition of Barron's which featured an article titled "Too Precious." The writer felt that gold shares were getting overheated with gold share prices getting ahead of the bullion prices. The article goes on to make a case for gold shares being overvalued with examples of Newmont, Barrick, Placer and AngloGold.

I take a different view. I would like to make the case that gold and gold shares are far from being overvalued. I begin my case with the price of gold itself. At today's closing price of $407.50 gold is still down 52% from its peak back in 1980. Gold bullion prices have been in a bear market for almost two decades. To say that gold is overvalued simply because it has risen 60% from its bear market nadir of $255 in 2001 is absurd. Back in 1980 when gold was selling at $850 the money supply as reflected in M3 was $1.8 trillion. Today that figure is $8.9 trillion as shown in the graph below. In 1980 when gold was selling at $850 an ounce the supply of money was $1.8 trillion. More than two decades later the money supply has risen by 400% and the price of gold is $450 less than where it was in 1980.

Another factor that has not been reflected in the gold and silver markets is the approaching gold and silver train wreck. Proven and probable reserves for major gold and silver producers have not kept pace with the increase in production. There are many large gold producers today that haven't improved their reserve life from where they were over a decade ago. Large gold and silver deposits are getting harder to find with very few existing fields of sufficient size capable of replacing each year's production of the majors. In order to replace existing production the majors would have to be finding 5 five-million ounce deposits each year simply to keep existing production flat. The majors are ramping up their exploration budgets and have been raising billions in cash this year. However, the time from discovery to the time of production may take as long as 5-7 years. Many experts in the field believe that the majors are unlikely to survive in their present form by the end of this decade. If a major merges or acquires another producer, unless that producer has a longer reserve life, the reserve life of the major remains unchanged. There is only one way that those reserves are going to be replaced and that is through exploration (finding more gold) or through acquiring the reserves of junior exploration companies who hold gold and silver resources in the ground.


Black Blade: Nice discussion indeed. I would be a buyer of the metal rather than the shares myself at current levels as I have mentioned before. Still, the article is a very "good sign" for the true contrarian investor (who tends to outperform the Lemmings by leaps and bounds). I am also a value investor and in the current environment I prefer the metals over the shares (with rare exceptions � rarer all the time). In the end I see gold and silver as "portfolio insurance" rather than an investment. The US dollar is headed over the abyss and will crumble at least another 30-50% from current levels. The budget and current account deficits in this period of "competitive currency devaluation" is completely unsustainable. Be exceptionally careful and very picky with your investments now. The "smart money" is going for hard assets and my clients (well two groups so far have taken the plunge and the other is slowly but tentatively moving in that direction if they can ever get into agreement over very minor details). I am not making any recos here but simply for disclosure I do own three PM mining shares (GoldCorp, Glamis, and Meridian) and I do own some energy trusts (mostly tax advantaged Canadians with a strengthening currency and some minor energy limited partnerships). OK, and some other minor positions in other sectors, but the point I am making is definitely get "portfolio insurance" first to build a sound foundation for your wealth pyramid (right now that means physical gold and silver, and if you are brave � some platinum too).

OK, as always and for your own security � get out of debt and stay out of debt (if at all possible), stash some emergency cash for expenses (I would probably switch a chunk of that into PMs as the US dollar currency is in a downtrend and gold and silver are liquid and a better bet with "negative real rates" making bank and money market accounts losers by far), accumulate gold and silver "portfolio insurance", and definitely start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities (with inflation on the way, and unforeseen events always a possibility get and keep prepared � maybe a year's worth or more of supply if possible). The cost of "real goods" are headed higher!

Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 23:14:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113121)
IRA Rollovers
Marketalk (aka George Cooper) at (800) 869-5115 ext.102 may be of help here. A small position in a Gold Bullion IRA coul help balance the limited selection of 401K choices offered by most companies. Anyone can contribute to an IRA even if they have a company sponsored 401K program. Interesting that Fidelity has a similar program but does not advertise it and the costs are high (not to mention some broker would likely try to sell you some other "dead in the water" investment instead). At least give George a call to discuss the issue to diversify your IRA retirement savings and balance out your retirement picture with some "portfolio insurance".

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 23:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113122)
Precursor to Puplava's Market Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/0929.html
Snippit:

The Approaching Storm

Even if the price of gold and silver were to rise sufficiently to trigger larger exploration budgets by the majors, it takes time to bring those discoveries from discovery to production. This time lag is getting longer in the U.S. and in Canada. The time required for permitting new projects can take as long as three to ten years depending on location and size of the project. Higher prices will not be the panacea that everyone thinks. You have to go out and find the stuff and then bring that new discovery into production--a process that can take 5-7 years on average. That is what is going to make this new bull market different from the last bull market that preceded it. The above ground stockpiles and the reserves aren't as plentiful as they once were. Furthermore, the debasement of currencies is now almost universal. No currency is fully backed by gold anymore. So there are going to be very few places to hide when as the currency wars pick up the pace. Eventually institutions will be looking for a safe haven from the coming monetary storms. When the monetary storm becomes a Category 5 storm the investment public will be looking for a life preserver too. That is when gold and silver will begin to fly. You are going to see the metals markets gap up daily as demand overwhelms supply. And unlike the last bull market, supply will be limited. There won't be enough silver in the COMEX to handle demand. You won't be able to get your hands on silver; while gold will be so expensive, it will be beyond the reach of most investors. Gold and silver equities will be all that remains for most investors. Even then due to limited supply, investors will be paying dearly for them.


Black Blade: I was going to go into this in today's DMR but it was self explanatory in the report itself. Exploration budgets are still tight and fewer deposits are being discovered and economically viable ones are fewer still. The political environment and lag time means that gold and silver will get rarer over the next several years as the population grows an more of the world's population is allowed to own precious metals. My take is that many precious metals companies are just too short sighted to understand the fundamentals of the market. There are a few small exploration and mining companies that got their act together but not many. The simple fact is the supply cannot keep up with growing demand. Nuff said!

Black Blade
(12/08/2003; 23:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113123)
Three Weeks To Xmas!!!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/
I think I will take the next hour or so to peruse the offerings of the "gifts that keep on giving" offered by the USAGOLD "treasury". I would like to make a "raid" myself but soooo many nice pieces offered and the guards of the castle have too keen an eye. Time is running short and lotsa PM jewelry (watches, chains, necklaces, coins, etc.). This has to be the biggest selection I've seen offered by USAGOLD for Xmas.

- Black Blade
misetich
(12/09/2003; 04:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113124)
Layoff Tracker Update:
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.htmlSnip:

The latest job cuts at Forbes 500s companies:

Akron, Ohio, tire company Goodyear Tire & Rubber (nyse: GT - news - people ) is eliminating 1,200 positions in a cost-cutting maneuver. The cut represents about 1% of the firm's staff.

Redmond, Wash.-based AT&T Wireless Services (nyse: AWE - news - people ) plans on cutting about 30,000 jobs, or more than 10% of its staff, according to published reports.

New York-based Verizon Communications (nyse: VZ - news - people ) said that 21,600 workers, or about 10% of its total staff, accepted an early-retirement buyout offer. The company offered the plan to its workers to cut costs.
***************
Misetich

US ministry of misinformation/disinformation is working overtime.

These planted "trolls" dissemininate false information on the state of the US economy, that misleads investors in making poor investment decisions.

For example, a notion was presented that the US is devauling its currency intentionally to cause havoc for the EU.

Nonsense. The EU enlargement/expansion has tons of underutilzed expansion within EU - thus EU ecomony will not be affected by a "soaring Euro" as most of the trading is performed within EU borders.

EU is concerned about the overvalued US $ and the potential world financial disaster, in the event of a US $ rout. Recently a report was "leaked" out to the media on such contingency plan.

In recent days many articles have been published relative to the disappearing appetite of foreigners for US $ denominated assets. EU has divested of GSE's, OPEC countries are pulling out US $ at great speed in 2003. China has reportedly been dishording US Treasuries in recent months.

Yet readers have reported US is staging this "self-mutiliation of the its currency"

Reality check says otherwise. When a country's GDP growth is reported at a rate of 7-8% annual growth and no jobs are being created THERE IS A PROBLEM.

When a country's currency depreciates during a period when GDP growth is reported at a rate of 7-8% annually - THERE IS A PROBLEM

Investors can "believe" these trolls and continue holding US $ denominated assets or they can perform their own due diligence - and safeguard themselves accordingly

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express







steady
(12/09/2003; 05:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113125)
can i get a...............
Z U B A Z O O M >
Paper Avalanche
(12/09/2003; 05:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113126)
A prediction of today's POG activity.....
Given that the FOMC is meeting today I predict that we will see POG slammed for $7.50 and close at $401 and change. Expect the big selling to start around 10:00 am EST.

History shows that this scenario has a very high probability of occuring. History also shows that if this should occur that we will see gold close over $410 by Friday.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Let's watch and find out!

PA
7nomads
(12/09/2003; 06:27:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113127)
Back to 1964?
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/free_forbes/2003/1222/230.htmlI don't keep up with the mainstream news, but I found this link from another site.

It was pro-silver, but one point was a surprise.

"But the major looming use for silver is the ancient monetary one. The metal that used to be money will serve as a store of value once again."

Why would you use silver for money when there's more gold available?
Knallgold
(12/09/2003; 07:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113128)
PA
...unless FED has some inflationary news...
Henri
(12/09/2003; 07:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113129)
7nomads msg #113127
When gold is $10,000/oz silver will be at least visible when making purchases. I keep remembering the trail guide's discussion of one atom of gold per coin at least thats what they will tell us.

Other benefits- silver is an anti microbial agent thereby serving an additional function in the transfer of things between peoples. With silver coin the passing of disease along with your money is less likely but not impossible. Here is where the hoarding of silver has usefulness. If one cleans their hands after handling the coin and deposits it in a holding recepticle, the passage of time will more effectively destroy any adherent microbes. Is this really hoarding??? Nah
Waverider
(12/09/2003; 07:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113130)
GBS debuts, gives all investors a shot at gold
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/12/09/rtr1174192.html"Gold Bullion Securities Ltd., controlled by the industry-funded World Gold Council, opened trading on the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday, giving everyone from institutional to small investors a chance to play the surging gold market..."
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 08:23:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113131)
Bull Hats
In response to the Dow 10000 hats at eh NYSE, Mark Haines wore a top hat with a bull on it. Since the index stayed over the 10000 line for only about 45 seconds, he appropriately flashed the bull's behind at the camera. Doesn't look like the market is really buying the quantity of "bull" that's being spouted around.
Operative
(12/09/2003; 08:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113132)
Seeing Is Believing
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAG8VWZZND.htmlGovernment Tells Consumers, Media How to Spot Deceptive Diet Ads

Snip:
"WASHINGTON (AP) - Lose weight without dieting or exercise! Eat your way to a trimmer you! Block fat before your body can absorb it!
According to the government, what products using those slogans should really say is: "I lost $350 in two weeks. Ask me how!"
The Federal Trade Commission released a guide Tuesday to help consumers and the media spot deceptive weight-loss products. The goal is to prevent consumers from wasting their money and to get newspapers and broadcasters to reject advertisements. "

Comment: Well, bust my bitches and bless my soul, the government really does care about lil ole me afterall. Guess I will have to rethink that old joke line about, "Hi ! I am from the government and I am here to help you." I am sure that any day now we will see government sponsored ads telling us to get out of the stock markets and buy gold and silver to protect ourselves from the coming storm. Seeing how the "goal is to prevent consumers from wasting their money ".
Cavan Man
(12/09/2003; 08:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113133)
Mortgage Market Slowing & Layoffs
Washington Mutual Cuts 2003 Profit Estimate, Jobs (Update2)
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. thrift, cut its forecast for 2003 earnings because of a decline in mortgage lending. The company will fire 2,900 people as part of a plan to eliminate $1 billion in costs.

Boilermaker
(12/09/2003; 08:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113134)
Paper Avalanche msg#: 113126
Good Call;
"Given that the FOMC is meeting today I predict that we will see POG slammed for $7.50 and close at $401 and change. Expect the big selling to start around 10:00 am EST."

I've got my guys in the pit targeting my contest guess for a $403.80 close but I'm worried there will be a counterattack before the day's over

Boilermaker
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 09:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113135)
Close
@PA:

We're headed back up, so we'll soon see who bribed the pit traders the best.
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 09:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113136)
OOPs
@ Boilermaker
admin
(12/09/2003; 10:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113137)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News! China, Oil Producers Dump Dollar/FT Front Page

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.
Agingfast
(12/09/2003; 10:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113138)
What action should be taken these days...
...by the head of the purchasing department of a company that is a steady user of silver? (Not that I am one.)
Dollar Bill
(12/09/2003; 10:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113139)
*>*............
The purposeful decline of the dollar must have a US administration reason. Talking strong dollar, but pushing it low to what ends?

Posted on the forum this year was info on discussions Bush had with top money guys at the white house.
They managed to convince him that the deficeits were ok for some reason. Some strategy is at work.
Is Bush BS-ing when he says he is going to talk to the chinese premier soon and again about derailing the yuan from the dollar?
A couple strategies?
Keeping euro in check by this too soon euro rise?
Insureing that it is not a reserve threat? During the next and coming recession?

Planning on a post election year recession complete with interest rate rise?
First insureing that the euro region has its recession...starting any time now? Germany is supposidly at deflations door, as reserve currency, the US does not want a healthy competitor. Guys are guys.

A recession is natural, postponed by greenspan, are they planning one? Force the present order to slim down before system parts are strong enough to get together and create another reserve option?

A recession would slow down china's economy and leave it's tottering banks in a weakened state that works to the US interest?
Volker showed that the US will sometimes strangle itself if it needs to. Interest rates went to what? In the early eighties?
That kind of interest rate, still possible by the US, would change the investment scene dramatically, sop up lots of huge money in 30 year bonds. Or shorter,

This era of low rates, a time to lock in courtesy of the world? China and Japan?
When the next presidential elections happen, are we in for a real change in the global picture?
Or, rather, another flex by US economic muscle?

The US might have a credit cancer, but is it mortal?
Are we declareing imminent death on a beast that has survival options? That is at present using?
I cant see Bush being timid about allowing a post election recession if it strengthens the US reserve status because the rest of the world cant figure out how to change things.

If we get to protectionism, here is someones ideas;
"Making money from protectionism
I have a few ideas, assuming that the protectionist measures are preceeded by a market wipeout:
bets to be placed after the market crash, in anticipation of the Smoot-Hawley legislation to follow.
0.)buy mostly domestic oil and gas producers
1.) Buy US and Euro garment manufacturers
2.) Buy US and Euro auto manufacturers
3.) Short Asian electronics manufacturers
4.) Bet on the recovery of the nuclear power industry in the US. A combination of better technology and dire necessity will change everythign here, IMO. Go long uranium miners, enrichers, and plant equipment manufacturers.
Remember, the US has very little domestic oil, but lots of domestic uranium.
This is my favorite, because it's less obvious and much cheaper"
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/09/2003; 11:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113140)
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http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements
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Zhisheng
(12/09/2003; 11:31:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113141)
Up into the Close.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1And up $1.60 on the day.
Black Blade
(12/09/2003; 11:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113142)
(No Subject)
Precious metals rise, US dollar weakens, and investors/Wall Street awaits the Fed rate decision in a few minutes. Fire up the presses - they don't print gold!

Jon H. Warner
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/09/2003; 11:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113143)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

The LSE begins trade today and the Fed is expected to hold off raising rates. meanwhile inflation rises driving "real rates" deeper into negative territory.

Jon H. Warner
Homer
(12/09/2003; 12:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113144)
POG / Gold / Dow
I know I may be naive, but how can the price of gold and the DOW go up, while the strength of the dollar increases against the EUR (even slightly)?
misetich
(12/09/2003; 12:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113145)
S. Roach - 2005 Forecast - US Current Account Deficit to SOAR TO 5.8% OF GDP
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031208-mon.html#anchor0Snip:

The pieces of the global puzzle do not do justice to the big-picture themes that are likely to play out on the world stage over the next few years. Particularly worrisome, in my view, are the ever-mounting imbalances of a US-centric world. Nowhere are they more evident than in our forecast of America's gaping current-account deficit, a shortfall that we estimate will rise to an astonishing 5.8% of GDP in 2005. Not only is that a record for the US, but in dollar terms � $710 billion � it is a record for the world, requiring foreign investors to provide America with nearly $3 billion of capital inflows every business day by 2005. America's current-account deficit is a by-product of what I view as two of the world economy's most unsustainable trends � a saving-short, overly indebted US that is living well beyond its means, and the inability or unwillingness of the rest of the world to stimulate domestic demand.
......................
World financial markets are not priced for such intensified macro tensions. Instead, hopes of a classic synchronous global recovery are in the air. What the markets are missing, in my view, is the price the world has paid to climb out of the near-deflationary abyss of the last recession. Central banks have made the riskiest bets in modern history � policy rates of "zero" in Japan, 1% in America, and 2% in Europe. At the same time, fiscal authorities have upped the ante as never before, with government budget deficits of 7% in Japan, 4% in America, and 3% in Europe. And the authorities have colluded in currency management in a period of unprecedented external imbalances.

The main problem with these extreme policy gambits is that there is no easy way out. If central banks move to normalize short-term interest rates, increasingly leveraged bond and credit markets could be vulnerable. The fiscal conundrum could be even more serious. Even a vigorous cyclical recovery in the US will not touch the long-term tax reduction and entitlement programs that are likely to produce ever-widening structural budget deficits. And Europe's recent suspension of the Stability and Growth Pact to accommodate Germany and France raises serious questions about the region's long-term commitment to fiscal discipline. Equally disconcerting is the possibility of an accelerating decline in the dollar. If that occurs, it seems reasonable that foreign investors would finally demand compensation for taking currency risk on dollar-denominated assets � pushing long-term US real interest rates higher.
...........................
*************
Misetich

The "political" wild card has been played - Politicians aspire to get elected/re-elected at whatever price.

The stage has been set for the upcoming 2004 Presidential election - Taxes have been cut, government spending has increased, corporations have been granted accelerated depreciation write-off on capital spending, tax breaks, IR are being kept at "accommodative" range.

The next trench of "rebates" are being prepared and ready to be mailed in spring of 2004. US GDP numbers will accerate to the 4-5% range (hedonically adjusted of course) in 2004

All is well in the wonderful land of oz!

...however the imbalances and misadjustments are not being resolved - to the contrary - the stage is set for a possible US $ rout

Going forward in 2004 savings rate will plunge, deficits will soar, and the US $ will accelarate its descend..

and lastly - UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS (no the real ones) will be improved at best to the 5.6 to 5.7 level - The improvement will be timed to coincide with the election.

...2005?

Don't ask - its payment time for porking out in 2003/2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Boilermaker
(12/09/2003; 12:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113146)
FED Groundhogs
I can't wait for the good news, Alan comes out of his hole and sees his shadow, 6 more months of negative interest rates. Halleluiah!! We are saved from the evil bearers of deflation, recession and halitosis.

TownCrier
(12/09/2003; 12:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113147)
Helpful guidance especially for the new gold investor
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.htmlHot off the press (or rather warm off the keyboard) from MK.

R.
TownCrier
(12/09/2003; 12:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113148)
Interest rate target kept at 1%; FOMC Statement for the record
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20031209/default.htmDecember 9, 2003

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. However, with inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry.
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/09/2003; 12:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113149)
So what if the roads get covered with ice and snow! You don't have to drive anywhere!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/pendants/gold.htmlShop here while you remain parked conveniently in your own driveway!

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Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 13:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113150)
Santa rally unmasked - Bah Humbug???
CBS Marketwatchsnippit:

Santa rally unmasked
December 09, 2003 12:37:46 (ET)

Please don't call him a Grinch but CBS Marketwatch columnist Mark Hulbert has pulled the beard off of the Santa Claus rally and exposed the myth and lore surrounding the highly publicized indicator.

But don't let that stop you from leaving some cookies and cocoa by the PC. As they say, "If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall."

Goldilox:

To quote the Guv: We'll be back and bears can be hungry!
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 13:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113151)
Santa -continued
snippit2: this part didn't make the cut and paste in my last post.

"One of the new portfolios called "Recommended Stocks for Buy And Hold," targets gold and natural gas companies in both the U.S. and Canadian markets. Most notable among the holdings in the portfolio are Provident Energy (ZBRA, Trade), Newmont Mining (NEM, Trade) and Enerplus Resources (NEM, Trade). "As energy prices rise, so will our dividends and the value of these stocks. With both crude and natural gas poised to break out on the upside, the time is excellent for purchasing select oil and gas producers," Hesler said.

The second portfolio, "Junior Gold & Silver Stocks," primarily focuses on the precious metal sector. Hesler argues that commodities, such as gold, and silver are just beginning a 20-year bull market. Two of his favorite gold companies, Goldcorp (GG, Trade) and Anglogold (AU, Trade) are included in this portfolio. "

Goldilox: Geee! Mainline analysts are staring to see energy and miners as good "HOLD" stocks!! Where have they been during the last 100% rise? A 20 year bull market? Let's not get carried away. If I hold for 20 years, I'll probably need a gold plated casket to use my stash!
Boilermaker
(12/09/2003; 15:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113152)
The Barron's Effect
Did anyone else notice the delayed "Barron's Effect" on gold stocks today? My list got creamed. Oh well, the buried stuff out back went up.
Cheers
Boilermaker
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 16:23:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113153)
Barron's effect?
@ Boilermaker

I certainly saw my gold issues get hammered, but what is Barron's role? I went to their site, but I'm not a subscriber, so I didn't see anything in the headlines, which is all I'm able to access.
Gandalf the White
(12/09/2003; 16:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113154)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- We have WINNERS !!!
SORRY I'm LATE -- Just having returned from a full day of reconnoitering Hammerton ---The COMEX action shows ----
GCZ03 (Dec '03) HIGH $409.0 low $406.5 SETTLE = $408.2
CHNAGE +$1.6 Volume = 596 Yesterday's OI = 2,086
===
AND the POG CONTEST WINNER IS ----

SIR Golden Era, wins the German "20 Mark" GOLD piece (0.2304 oz. of Au) !!!!!

with RUNNERS-UP of

Sir Magister Aurelius, and
Sir Usul !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

both winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle

===
**** $408.3 **** Magister Aurelius (12/5/03; 15:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 112916)

**** $408.2 **** Golden Era (12/7/03; 01:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 112996)

**** $408.0 **** Usul (12/6/03; 14:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 112974)
===

Will each of the three WINNERS please make contact with Marie of USAGOLD via email at marie@usagold.com an provide her your HANDLE, real name, and snailmail address for mailing out your PRECIOUS !

Thanks ALL for your input answers of WHY the POG will (or will not) exceed the $500. level in year 2004 !
We shall be planning the next Contest soon. <;-)
Goldilox
(12/09/2003; 16:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113155)
Bonds hammered as well
@ Boilermaker, et al

The 10 year bond, for instance, went from 4.20% to 4.35% after Sir AG's announcement. Methinks lots of money fled the table in all markets except pure commodities. Afterhours quotes for the miners look to be pushing them back up some, so tomorrow could be a good recovery day for them.
misetich
(12/09/2003; 19:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113156)
Concern as Washington Mutual cuts outlook - 2900 Labor cuts
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493842686&p=1012571727088Snip:

The evidence of distress in the US mortgage market grew on Tuesday as Washington Mutual surprised investors by revealing 2,900 more job cuts and slashing its profit forecast.


WaMu, the seventh-biggest US bank by assets, is a leading arranger of loans that are then typically sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other issuers of securities in the $5,100bn mortgage bond market.
.....................
**************
Misetich

More additions to the "bonepile" -

The jobless recovery continues...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express





Druid
(12/09/2003; 19:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113157)
(No Subject)
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/emorn3.htmSnippit

"With all the presumed and/or evident market interventions of late, I thought to spend a little time, while waiting for easy Al's merry men to cut and paste their 50 word essay on why the Fed is right, talk about living in the past, on the topic of intervention. More specifically I wanted to focus on the topic of when intervention is needed, which should not be confused with intervention being a cure. In an ideal sense, intervention should never be needed. That is, if all money is real and all liabilities are being serviced intervention to maintain equilibrium would be pointless."


Druid: Lewis is always good IMHO but today's read is pretty funny. I'm still laughing at the cut and paste assertion. Enjoy.
misetich
(12/09/2003; 19:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113158)
Opec may look at trading oil in euro
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/12/10/business/6879623&sec=businessSnip:

CARACAS: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) could discuss trading oil in euros or a basket of currencies other than the US dollar because of concerns over the slide in the greenback's value, said the cartel's secretary-general, Alvaro Silva.

"There is talk of trading crude in euros. It's one of the alternatives ... either that or a basket of currencies. It is possible that the organisation will discuss this and take a decision at a given time," Silva told the Venezuelan state news agency Venpres in an interview from Vienna.

Opec has aimed to keep oil prices within its preferred US$22-US$28-a-barrel target band, although prices recently have been at the top of the range or above it.

At the cartel's meeting in Vienna last week, some members said the higher prices were fair as the falling value of the dollar had slashed their purchasing power for goods from areas such as the euro zone.

Leading producer Saudi Arabia made clear that it was pursuing a higher oil price target to offset buying power lost with the decline of the dollar.

On Monday, the dollar fell to record lows versus the euro for a seventh straight day and to a three-year low against the yen on concerns over the United States� ability to fund its current account deficit.

Silva said Opec still hoped to maintain oil prices within its preferred US$22-US$28-a-barrel target range in the first quarter of next year. He said the range was sufficiently wide to accommodate transitory price fluctuations and other emergencies.

But he added: "The band is not set in stone, and if there is a decision to change its levels, they would be changed above all because of currency circumstances." � Reuters

****************
Misetich

Some have suggested US is co-ordinating US $ devaluation to "hit EU"

...in the world of reality...OPEC's openess, along with Russia's recent "announcement" strongly hints the era of Oil and other commodities priced in Euros is closer than many think or wish...

How will this affect the US $ and US economy, stock market, trade deficit, bond market, housing bubble?

2003 was only the beginning of trend changes...2004, will be the "calm" - presidential elections - before the real storm hits in 2005 and onward

Physical Gold is INDISPENSABLE PORTFOLIO INSURANCE

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steady
(12/09/2003; 19:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113159)
better two years early than a day late>
WHAT there was a contest, and i missed it. son of a gun and dadgummit. i cant belive it, and to think it was right there in front of my eyes all this time. I would have won, i could have won, i should have entered. Yep we all know coulda, woulda, and shoulda never did a thing.

i wonder if many people will be saying something similar 18-24 months from now in regrads to gold and silver.

let that be a lesson to all you who have yet to be priced in better early than a day late when all the gold has allready been given( sold) out>
Druid
(12/09/2003; 19:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113160)
Yukos oil trade to U.S. collapses
http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=41718Snippit:

After almost 18 months of small, but high-profile, exports of Russian crude oil to the United States, Yukos appears to have halted the shipments amid Kremlin pressure to block the sale of Yukos shares to a U.S. oil company.

According to an industry source in Moscow, oil cargoes from Yukos, Russia's leading exporter, comprise most of the recorded Russian exports of oil to the United States since trial deliveries first began in July of 2002. The volume has been falling steadily since mid-summer of this year.

"The general situation," the industry source told The Russia Journal, "is that the United States has slowed down purchasing of Russian oil. In the October- November period, the shipments fell from 50,000 barrels per day (bd) to about 10,000 bd. This compares with September, when the average was 142,000 bd, and with July, when the shipments were about 475,000 bd." According to the source, "we still don't know why there has been this slowdown. What we can say is that maybe the United States has found an alternative oil source."

Druid: ANOTHER marker along the trail. This world wide paper collapse and race to the bottom is really picking up steam.
Waverider
(12/09/2003; 19:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113161)
Inflation Could Be Around The Corner
http://www.ncpa.org/edo/bb/2003/bb-20031208.html"Another effect of this weak dollar policy became evident in recent days when the OPEC oil cartel indicated that it might raise prices to compensate for the falling dollar. It has always priced oil in dollars, so a fall in the dollar means that its members have to pay more for goods and services purchased in Europe, Japan and elsewhere. Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, complained on Thursday that the dollar had fallen 35 percent in the last 3 years. He said OPEC would price oil to maintain "the purchasing power of the old, good dollar."

This is all very reminiscent of the early 1970s, when OPEC first raised the price of oil in response to a falling dollar. As early as 1970, it passed a resolution at its annual conference saying that it would adjust the price of oil to reflect changes in real purchasing power. The following year, it passed a resolution complaining about "world-wide inflation and the ever widening gap existing between the prices of capital and manufactured goods�and those of petroleum." In other words, the prices of things that OPEC countries imported were rising faster than the oil that they exported.

By 1973, OPEC had had enough with U.S. inflation and it moved to sharply raise the price of oil. Although the war between Israel and Egypt precipitated the price rise, it couldn't have been sustained unless supported by fundamental economic forces. These same forces also pushed up prices for gold and other commodities. Basically, the 1973 OPEC oil price increase just kept the price of oil line with other commodities. It was more jarring only because of the circumstances in which it occurred and because it happened all at once.

Nevertheless, there are those who still believe that OPEC caused the inflation of the 1970s, through some sort of "cost-push" mechanism. In truth, OPEC was responding to inflation, rather than causing it. The root cause was the creation of too many dollars by the Federal Reserve. This came about because Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon cajoled the Fed into running an inflationary monetary policy in order to keep interest rates artificially low. They also removed many of the institutional constraints that prevented previous presidents from doing the same thing.

In short, the Fed, not OPEC, caused the stagflation of the 1970s. A recent paper by University of Michigan economists Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian confirms this analysis. Writing in the prestigious NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2001), they conclude, "The Great Stagflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had the Fed not permitted major monetary expansions in the early 1970s�. The stagflation observed in the 1970s is unlikely to have been caused by supply disturbances such as oil shocks."

Although the signs are nascent, indications are that inflation is starting to show its ugly head again, the result of an extremely easy Fed policy over the last 3 years. Sensitive commodity prices like gold are up, the dollar is down and OPEC is again complaining about lost purchasing power. It's like d�j� vu all over again."

Waverider: Interesting find from next door on the circumstances leading to 1970's stagflation, and an interesting follow-up to Misetich's article - OPEC didn't have an alternative pricing mechanism in the '70's whereas now there's the Euro...this really puts us in unchartered territory!

BTW - *** CONGRATULATIONS to All the Winners ***
Dollar Bill
(12/09/2003; 19:50:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113162)
*>*.........+
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/031215/usnews/15terror.htmGood article on the saudis and the Wahhabi proselytizing campaign.
A recession would cause lower gas prices, which would limit funding of this problem.
Aristotle
(12/09/2003; 20:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113163)
Homer 113144, welcome aboard.
I'm sure you're not being purposely ignored. Everybody's just too busy buying Gold to answer your question.

There's no perfect arbitrage mechanism at this time to position a theoretical financial fulcrum for any real hopes of a lasting predictible balance to the teeter-totter of items you've listed.


Under the same rationale, it's also reasonable to expect that Gold prices could presently rise in terms of every currency known to mankind.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Druid
(12/09/2003; 20:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113164)
It's Too Late For A Dollar Devaluation
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp"The recipe for economic disaster over the last ten years has been the potent combination of three disequilibria: an asset bubble, a credit excess, and an exchange rate overvaluation. Extreme readings in any two are often enough to precipitate a financial and economic crisis; extreme readings in all three make crisis inevitable. Japan in the late 1980's had an extreme asset bubble and credit excess, but not an exchange rate disequilibrium. Mexico had an extreme exchange rate disequilibrium accompanied by something of an asset bubble and a selective domestic credit excess. Malaysia and Thailand had all three---asset bubbles, credit excesses and exchange rate overvaluations. Korea had the first two, but arguably its exchange rate was not overvalued by early 1997."

Duid: Excellent read.
21mabry
(12/09/2003; 20:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113165)
John Adams
In a book I was scanning thru there was a letter from John Adams to his wife.He wrote to her after he was elected president how could they possibly live on the 25,000 fiat dollars that was his yearly salary for being the president.He had to supply his own horses and carriage he paid for his own servants and linens and dishes used in the presidents home.He made the statment that because of fiat everything in philadelphia was over priced,and scoundrels charged whatever they had the guts to ask.He stated with no metal backing the economy was far beyond the commons man ability to decipher.I do not have book in front of me these are all from memory but those were his basic statments.21
21mabry
(12/09/2003; 21:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113166)
(No Subject)
Does anyone know if the continentals were still circulating then Adams stated he was paid in paper money.The constitution was in effect at that time.Should not he have been paid in specie.21
steady
(12/09/2003; 21:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113167)
what huh who whoa info overload...............
fog and cold make for dim views.

info overload.
lets keep it simple follow the golden ball relative to planetory paper currency.
21mabry
(12/09/2003; 21:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113168)
Gold Dealers
There is an article on another site that talks about bullion dealers obligations on reporting sales to the goverment under the new terrorism laws.Maybe someone from centennial could comment if they have seen the article.Or can anyone comment about bullion dealers and the reports they are forced to make to goverment organizations.21
Black Blade
(12/09/2003; 23:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113170)
Just a Few Quick Responses


Goldilox � Barron's (the weekend financial news issue of Dow Jones) had an article stating that gold miners shares have far outpaced the price of gold. Mike Santoli on CNBC who works for the newspaper said that gold was the better option but that did not mean that shares could rise further, just that at shares have risen faster than gold. However, he did not explain anything about leverage and the "Barron Bounce" tends to effect share prices featured in the following week. Another point is that these people have little to no experience with commodity issues and how the industries operate. It's really no big deal so I expect it to be a temporary effect as precious metals prices rise.

Misetich � There are fewer counted as unemployed in recent weeks as the second extension of unemployment benefits are running out leading the BLS to count these unemployed now as "employed". Due to quirks in how they abuse statistics (in their case it's more art than science), the real unemployment rate ranges from over 9% to 12.5% depending on whether you count "man hours" and the temporary effects of the seasonal employment during the holidays. There are other ways to "massage" the numbers too but I have discussed that in detail before.

Druid � Misetich � Oil ends up in the "international" pool of oil for sale so Yukos oil to the US is essentially meaningless. It is also the reason the Arab oil embargo ultimately failed. Besides, Russian oil production peaked in the late 1970's and has still not recaptured peak production. So far the Caspian Sea oil bonanza has been a bust. It should be no surprise that a weaker US dollar would result in a pricing change in either a higher dollar price band or in another currency. The question is how weak the major currencies get in comparison against one another (it's really relative as all are weakening) while the "currency war" continues (aka "competitive currency devaluation"). Also, Yukos has had a lot of attention from China for oil as demand there has been growing almost exponentially as they dramatically industrializes. Note that the CEO of Yukos was arrested and imprisoned a few weeks ago and some suggest it was a political vendetta by President Putin because the former CEO supported the opposition in recent elections. He violated a deal among the oligarchs to stay out of politics. Russia is still quite a ways from being a true democratic republic with guarantees of individual rights.

Mabry21 � "Continentals" were hemp "currency" used to pay the US soldiers for the US revolution against the Brits. The paper became essentially worthless as political promises usually are. Thus the idiom "not worth a "continental". The pay was also supposed to promise land to participating US continental soldiers (yep, "traitors" if you were a Brit (Tory) supporter or "revolutionary" if you were a an American patriot). The victors get to write the history books. ;-) I don't know how long they circulated or how much they devalued or if they lasted into the time of Adams or not. Actually I have a couple of fairly decent notes (unfortunately not readily close at hand). The US used the Spanish silver reales and snipped them into eights (thus the term "pieces of eight"). Some US silver dollars and coin were minted fairly early and a surviving1804 silver dollar sold for over $4 million last year at auction (maybe the year before?). Anyway, it was the lack of gold and silver to pay for the war for independence that led to the creation of the nation's first fiat currency (that failed of course). The nation was deep in debt for quite some time afterward but it was necessary at the time. Remember that the US Constitution requiring gold and silver as money was not ratified for several years after victory against the Brits anyway an the people had to be prodded into voting to ratify the constitution and much of that was due to the writings of James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and one article John (?) who later became a supreme court justice in a series of newspaper articles that became known as the "Federalist Papers".


- Black Blade
Golden Era
(12/10/2003; 00:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113171)
POG Competition
Thank you Sir Gandalf the White. It is indeed a great honor to have won this prestigious competition amongst many Greats. I shall look upon this 9th Day of December in the Year 2003 as my true certification into knighthood. This prized winning of a German "20 Mark" GOLD piece shall have the distinct veneration as my lucky gold coin (0.2304 oz. of Au) !!!!!

Last but not least, I would like to thank Sir M.K. for his generous contribution for making this POG Competition possible.

Black Blade
(12/10/2003; 02:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113172)
Debut Of Gold Bullion Securities On LSE Exceeds WGC's Wildest Hopes.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2003/Dec-2003/BullionSecurities101203.htm

Snippit:

James Brown, chief executive of the World Gold Council, was in ebullient form at the party given on the 23rd floor of the London Stock Exchange last night to celebrate the first day's trade in Gold Bullion Securities. The listing had been announced the previous Tuesday and the WGC caught a lot of people on the hop by coming out with an invitation to a press conference at later the same morning. It appeared that they could hardly believe their luck that the prospectus was actually being published.

This was hardly surprising after the long drawn out wrangling with the NYSE and the SEC over the gold investment vehicle proposed for the US which has gone on for more than a year. As a result the WGC has been inhibited from actively marketing gold which is its raison d�etre. Maybe the Americans will now realise that London has taken the initiative in gold marketing and play catch-up.

When they see the result of the first day's trade in Gold Bullion Securities it will certainly wake them up. Over 24 tonnes of gold was sold on the first day's trade according to Rob Weinberg and Simon Village who are both directors of the company. This is equivalent to 746,400 ounces of gold which, at the present gold price, is worth over US$303 million. According to Gold Bullion's website it had only bought 14.89 tonnes of gold in advance so had to replenish supplies rather fast.


Black Blade: WGC sees offtake of 24 tons of gold in first day of ETF trade in London and has to scramble to buy more to meet demand. Not a bad start. No wonder the SEC is afraid and obeying their masters on Wall Street.

Black Blade
(12/10/2003; 04:09:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113173)
The Looming Energy Crisis and its Effect On Gold
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/temp/EnergyGold.pdf
Snippit:

As oil prices rise inflation starts to become noticeable, the average American only understands inflation when he sees the basic things that he pays for increase in price rapidly, when gas at the pump costs 5 dollars a gallon and milk 4 dollars a gallon he will snap out of his daze. The net effect is that this is all very very bullish for Gold and silver bullion. So make sure when someone asks the soon to become proverbial question "Got Gold". Your answer is "Your damn right I do" and not "what Gold isn't it supposed to be ancient relic "

Black Blade: I think most here already know where I stand on this issue. Worth a look - it looks like a cold winter may be on the way with a 3.5% decline in domestic NatGas production with a 5% to 10% increase in demand. Last year we had all time high storage levels and almost ran out ending at all time low storage - and that was a normal winter!!! And still no US energy policy and most promising hydrocarbon targets are "off limits" to drilling and production. Better make plans for Iraq as the 51st state. ;-)
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 05:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 113177)
London ETF
@BB, et al

Reading the article on the WGC's London ETF, I noticed one error by the author. It was mentioned that the final trades were 1.98M units for $8.x M. At $41 bucks per, that should have been $82.xM.

With a $5 range for the day, if these trades entered the market in the AM at $40.7 and sold in the PM at $41.15, the trader may have made $0.9M. I didn't catch the margin requirements, but it seems like there is one more place for the big money to short gold when TPTB sees fit.

Does this just create one more paper vehicle for the shorts to manipulate with no real motivation to deal in physical gold??
Kev
(12/10/2003; 07:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113179)
Belgian court rejects lawsuit on cenbank assets
BRUSSELS, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Belgium's supreme court on Wednesday ruled against a group of minority shareholders in the country's central bank in a legal dispute over the ownership of the bank's assets.

The shareholders, led by advocacy group Deminor, had filed a lawsuit against the bank and the Belgian state. The state owns 50 percent of the bank.

Deminor was seeking to overturn a new law that would allow the bank, known as Banque Nationale de Belgique, to transfer its reserves to the state -- reserves that shareholders say should be the property of all shareholders in the bank.
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 07:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113180)
Belgian Reserves issue
@ Kev, Belgian:

Is this a confiscation issue?
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 07:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113181)
Straight up!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1$411.50
Paper Avalanche
(12/10/2003; 08:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113182)
Spot gold vs. futures....
It appears that spot gold is trading at $410.50 and the gold futures contract, as reported by Bloomberg, is trading at $409.50.

Physical breaking away from paper?

All comments welcome.

Paper Avalanche (literally)
R Powell
(12/10/2003; 08:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113183)
About that $500 POG....
Sometime during 2004?
We're up this morning about $4.00. How about, at this rate, before the end of January?
And silver? Big smile here....we've only just begun. There will be no implied threat of central bank selling for silver. There will be no decrease in the demand for industrial use. There is no room for very much "hot" investment money in this small market without much higher prices. There will be, however, great surprise among the paper market players at the strength of the silver move IF she really gets moving.
But beware, Rich, there most probably also will be some severe downturns as there will be for gold so stay alert, and lock in some profits along the way. But, this could be some fun. Have we waited long enough? I have.
Rich
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 08:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113184)
Quotes
@PA:

Between INO, FutureSource, Kitco, and Focus Direct, I see larger variations at any given moment on the SAME quote, based on latest trade, reporting delay, and various other trivial differences. I think when we hear about paper and physical separating, it refers to much greater margins of difference.
R Powell
(12/10/2003; 08:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113185)
Paper Avalanche
You may have been looking at delayed quotes but, if the price heats up enough, we may see the contango disappear. Take a look at soybean prices which are about $1.00/bushel higher in the near term than for future deliveries. With the beans, there may literally be no beans left at some time next summer before the 2004 harvest.
Difficulties in immediate spot delivery of gold or silver would probably invert metals' prices in the same way.
Rich
mikal
(12/10/2003; 08:33:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113186)
Big tech stocks get last rites
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2003-12-09-fourhorse_x.htmPosted 12/9/2003 11:05 PM���� Updated 12/9/2003 11:16 PM
Four Horsemen of Internet see tough times
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Excerpts:
"Before the Internet bubble burst, there were four companies that, in Wall Street's eyes, could do no wrong: Cisco (CSCO), EMC (EMC), Sun Microsystems (SUNW) and Oracle (ORCL). Prosperous records, real products and soaring profits earned them the nickname, "the Four Horsemen of the Internet." They've had a tough three years. Orders dried up as large corporate customers stopped buying products."

"Our bet is that most of those tech darlings of 1997 to 1999 will not be the darlings of 2004 to 2006," says money manager Donald Straszheim of Strazheim Global..."

Melting Pot
(12/10/2003; 08:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113187)
US economy mirror image of Enron and Arthur Anderson accounting techniques
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031210/bs_nm/economy_growth_dcRevisions: Economy Shrank Pre-Recession

SNIP:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter of 2000, the government said on Wednesday in revisions to official figures that showed America was on the brink of recession months earlier than previously thought.

The sweeping changes by the Commerce Department (news - web sites) also downgraded the expansion that followed the 2001 slump, albeit only slightly.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031210/bs_nm/economy_growth_dc

Gee, who would'da thought it! Nice timing tho, pull the accurate data out as a revision when the economy doesn't turn as planned for use in the political arena....

Freddie Mac Paying $125 Million Civil Fine to Settle Allegations of Management Misconduct

SNIP:

"The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which supervises Freddie Mac and its larger rival Fannie Mae, also released Wednesday a critical report citing "a pattern of inappropriate conduct and improper management of earnings" at the company and even "a disdain for appropriate disclosure standards" among former executives."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/031210/freddie_mac_fine_1.html

Steal $5 billion in return for a $125 million slap on the wrist? Where do I sign up!

All of this under the regulatory noses of the Congress, Treasury, FTC and SEC. I smell a big fat rat farm of looters and plunderers!

admin
(12/10/2003; 09:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113188)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News. . .

Impressive surge at NY open.......Intraday chart

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Congrats to the Winners!!
CoBra(too)
(12/10/2003; 10:07:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113190)
EU is distancing itself from US strategic Paper
Multilaterism seems acceptable, though the differences are to be found between lines.
As the US paper uses the word pre-emptive in its strategic concept - as Afghanistan and Iraq have had to witness - the EU paper, authored by Javier Solana introduced the word "preventive", instead!

....And while the US feel the need to go alone against terror and proliferation of WMD's, in total disregard to existing international institutions, the EU takes a more measured stance. The UN Security Council still holds priority to any nation reneging its effectiveness.

This kind of reasoning of the US comes close to the reasoning of Nazi Germany in the 30's, I'm afraid, though not afraid enough to not state my misgivings.

Apart of the geo-political and - economical consequences such divergence in policy may lead to, the main question going forward will be the unsustainable twin deficits of the US.

Empires have been eradicated with less debt historically. And as noone wishes a systemic currency melt down - it may be too late to avoid it.

Personally, I'm not looking forward to the consquences of the unwinding of, primarily the US debt berg, though I feel we'll have to cope with it.

Gold, while being the only protection finacially, will only meliorate the consequences in a world none of us would like to experience - though experince we will! cb2
admin
(12/10/2003; 10:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113191)
doco
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlPls go back and review our rules before posting.

You broke two of them: Infringed on a copyright and posted an e-mail address.

Gandalf the White
(12/10/2003; 10:41:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113192)
RUN SPOT, RUN !!!! --- Paper Avalanche !!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1CABAL wishes us to know that they are not DEAD YET !
"SOON though, we shall see", say SPIKE !
<;-)
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 11:06:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113193)
Tug of War
Watching the Dx and Spot POG today reveals an interesting tug of war that qactually began last night with BOJ intervention in the currency markets. Knowing dogs as well as I do, Spot and Spike will not miss a chance to play! The weak stomached should consider a dramamine patch.
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 11:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113194)
Medicare Drug bill
Pfizer's CEO was on CNBC explaining that the elimination of drugs coming to the US from Canadian pharmacies was "necessary" because 88% of the drugs coming back to the US were "fake or counterfeit". If he is so concerned that US patients would be harmed by these drugs, why is there no outrage about the 88% drug piracy rate in Canada? Do the drug companies feel no responsibility for their Canadian customers? What's going on in their Canadian distribution channels? They certainly demonstrated no public concern before the medicare legislation.

I smell a rat as well. The Demo debaters suggested that the energy bill and the Medicare drug bill were "bought and paid for" by the oil and drug comapnies. It's hard not to believe that when these CEOs are so comfortable in their out and out fabrication.
Melting Pot
(12/10/2003; 11:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113195)
3 day dollar chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iLooks like a head and shoulders formation is possibly forming on the 3 day dollar chart. FGoing to be watching this very closely. A break down here will be disasterous for the greenback. NIA

steady
(12/10/2003; 11:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113196)
1%, 5% , 10%
the higher gold goes the longer i have to wait for that one day 10% reevaluation on gold. i use to hope it came at 270 and would be 27 federal reserve notes , then it was at 330 where i was looking for a 33 one day increas, now at 407 i have to look for a 40.7 one day increase , thats why its almost laughable at the way the paper game on dishonest street with those company certificates are being sold off all over a less than a 1% decrease in price, it is very obvious that they liars over on fall st want as many of those shares as possible. ever see themnm same paper company certificates increase as much with less than a 1% increase?
got gold?
when will we see teh one day 5% increase in gold?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/10/2003; 12:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113199)
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Caradoc
(12/10/2003; 13:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113200)
Important for all (Tell me if I'm wrong)
My favorite gold stock's press release today announcing that they've recently sold their 8.1 ton stockpile of processed gold at an average price of $388 has a between-the-lines message that's important to anyone involved in physical gold....

First off, the average price of 388 says (duh) that they've been selling since some point before gold got to 388 and sold the rest after that point; in short, contributing to the available supply over a period of at least several weeks. Note that when a central bank announces that they're "going" to sell 6 or 8 or 10 tons, the price of gold invariably drops in fear of the "pending" sale. As most here believe, such "sales" generally amount to after-the-fact recognition of transactions that have already taken place; and -- despite that -- such announcements cause POG to drop. In contrast, today's press release reveals that, while the ratio of supply and demand over the last several weeks saw gold rising tens of dollars per ounce, the rate of that rise has been restrained by the totally unpublicized sale more than EIGHT TONS of gold.

Now that that restraining factor is history, guess what is about to happen to the price of gold even if demand simply remains constant? Arithmetic answer: tens of dollars per ounce over the next several weeks, maybe to $430 or $440.

Two questions:
(1) How quickly to the sub-450 level if the market anticipates that it's coming?
(2) What if -- instead of remaining constant -- demand continues to rise as it did during the last couple of weeks while the 7th and 8th tons were being sold?

Just for fun, a third question: what if both the above kick in at the same time? My hunch is that even without short covering we could be looking at $500 by Christmas.

Thoughts, anyone?

Caradoc

USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/10/2003; 13:23:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113201)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Was it Godzilla rising out of Tokyo Bay? No it was Alan Greenspan and the Fed governors keeping rates steady. In response the Bank of Japan emerged since throwing $billions into the currency markets to weaken the Yen and strengthen the US dollar. Still gold, silver, and platinum hit new highs today before profit taking. Obviously fear has taken hold in Japan and physical buying has ballooned while paper trades trended lower by the close. Look for prices to pop up again as demand increases. It is all currency related today and yesterday but there are limits to the Japanese intervention as the Japanese economy spirals downward out of control.

Jon H. Warner
Husky
(12/10/2003; 13:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113202)
Cabal does the Titanic
It would appear that the good ship Cabal
has just stood up on one end in preparation
for its slide into deep ignominity. Maybe
one day Renaldo will be allowed to open its
empty safe on live TV to the delight of
millions.
Black Blade
(12/10/2003; 13:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113203)
Goldilox
As I understand it the London Exchange gold ETF is not open to loans or options related activity but only sold as "units" representing one tenth an ounce. If the big players were to short gold they would more likely just go to the commodities exchanges where the rules are fairly relaxed for preferred clients and shorting activity is as common as the common cold. I don't see this ETF as another means for shorting activity as it can't be leveraged with margin (so they claim).

- Black Blade
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 13:49:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113204)
GG DIVIDEND EFFECT
@ Caradoc:

I'm no expert, but GG shares (-5%) got hammered today only slightly more than Anglo (-3%) and Newmont (-3%), two of Wall St's favorites. Checking the juniors, I see losses from 5-10%, with most rebounding somewhere between their 13-day and 50-day MAs. GG touched their 50dMA, but bounced from that point.

My personal belief is that the "Barron's effect" shook out the early profit takers and offered believers a new entry point. Time will, of course, tell if this is the case, but even after dropping $9 intersession, gold is still only a couple bucks below yesterday. The chart looks like a hatchet job, but the support levels look pretty firm to me.

These are just one man's beliefs and observations.
Aristotle
(12/10/2003; 15:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113205)
Classic!
http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-n10221764-u2&date=20031210&alias=/alias/money/cm/nwI know this is a Gold discussion forum and not a stock discussion forum, but I hope you'll indulge me this article as I make a point. The article above says it all:

= = =

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Goldcorp Inc. handed its investors a double-edged sword on Wednesday, announcing the reward of an unexpected dividend, but its stock and bullion tumbled on news that the payout was being funded from the sale of its gold arsenal.

A staunch supporter of bullion that argues that gold is money, Toronto-based Goldcorp has steadily built up a stash of nearly 270,000 ounces of bullion over the past two years.

But on Wednesday the gold miner said it had sold its entire cache, equal to the annual output of a mid-sized gold miner, to take advantage of stronger bullion prices.

= = =

Am I alone in this thinking, or can anyone else clearly see why you can't legitimately own Gold by proxy? If you don't own the PHysical Gold and control it yourself, you really can't make a solid claim that you know what you have. It might seem like it's here today, but then gone tomorrow, and all without your say so. Your portfolio is left twisting in the wind at precisely the time you need it anchored to bedrock. Sheeeeeeeeeesh.

The next question to be addressed is when will your favorite mining company announce its merger with Singer, and commence forthwith in the production of knitting needles and sewing machines?

All together now: "Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!"

Gold. Get YOU some. It's not a proxy thing, boys. --- Aristotle
CoBra(too)
(12/10/2003; 15:35:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113206)
Ari - Re: GG
Even if I'm not with you - all the time - I'm wondering about a special dividend by GG priced - way below the market - at 388$/oz!

Is it only bad IR or rather irresponsible idiocy of a company telling the world that you can choose reality - gold -or cash dividends ... Now, can you?

Please pass on the Q to Rob McCewan ... I'm at a loss ...
cb2
Dollar Bill
(12/10/2003; 15:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113207)
*>*............
you might remember that chicken that made some bread and a number of farm animals said no. But, the did want to eat the bread. She said only those that helped get to eat.
...The US administration just told canada, russia, the hussein booster club, that would be france germany, belgium ect, and I believe I heard china....that they will not get to bid on iraq work.
They can however qualify if thier behaviour changes.

Seems almost daily lately there is financial issues and cold war between the US and its opponents.
I am sure the steel fight by euro ticked off the US.
I suspect that the dollar will go quite low before bottoming out.
Unless the euro boys cry "uncle", I suspect they and thier
fluid cast of possible allies will bear the brunt of economic trouble.

Saudi's comment "good ole dollar" had to hurt.
alkyda, chirac, hussein, played bad chess.
If bush thought there was a problem, he would have fought
recent US senate behaviours. He has been told something else.
Dollar Bill
(12/10/2003; 15:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113208)
*>*............
"Very interesting, the news last night, that Bush is warning Taiwan (yet another long standing ally we're about to piss off) not to try and break away from China. I guess he knows which side his bread is buttered on. Don't forget, he's supposed to want a soft dollar. Isn't China the number two purchaser of agency debt? Aren't they and Japan pretty much the only ones keeping the dollar slide comfortable?"
slingshot
(12/10/2003; 16:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113209)
Slingshot's Gold Report.
ZUBAZOOOOOOOOOOM!It's great to be a Goldbug. A spike to $412 and a pull back to $405. Talk on the televison of Gold going to $500. Gold being placed into the Kettles of the Salvation Army. Bless those generous souls. More advertisements than you can shake a stick at proclaiming Gold as wealth protection.
Each resistance level has fallen. Maybe not to our expected speed but, none the less fallen.
Time to pay tribute to those posters like Ari, Belgian,Black Blade and M.K. and all those at USAGOLD,Who Stayed the Course. And to all the rest who come here.You have provided the pieces that present a clearer picture of gold and where it is going. For this information comes from the Heart.
Trust your Instincts. Fiat is Fake. Gold is REAL!

Congrats to the winners of the contest.

We are all Winners here at USAGOLD.
Slingshot--------------<>
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 16:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113210)
Iraq contracts
@ Dollar Bill, et al:

There is some response from the Euro block and Canada to Wolfie's proclamation. They had previously been asked to "donate" funds for reconstruction, and have threatened to withhold their contribution if they are "blacklisted" from prime contractor status.

Some of the hullabaloo centers around the fact that Halliburton has been accused by US officials of double charging for everything they supply in Iraq, for which they present "risk" as the motivation. Of course, presently they have a monopoly on everything they supply, thanks to their relationship with Cheney.

The complete story is actually more complex than Wolfie's proclamation.
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 16:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113211)
GG Dividend
Ari, et al:

Goldcorp is a "producer", and I cannot really comment on the quantity of their sales, I believe that they are in the business of producing and selling gold, not hoarding all of it. The numbers might be worth a good discussion, but if they "never" sold gold, they would have an unsuccessful business model. I also think that returning dividends is more shareholder responsive than continuing to build a massive "war chest" like Microsoft or Cisco.

As a shareholder, I would have preferred they sent me physical, but I can always spend the dividend at CPM to accomplish that purpose.
CoBra(too)
(12/10/2003; 16:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113212)
@ Dollar Bill
Looks like that some, who haven't been with US - won't get any of the spoils!

What a pity, considering the (ongoing) devastation in the region! Let US do it all by US ... and (don't worry) be happy! ... While u can... cb2

Socrates964
(12/10/2003; 16:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113213)
GG
Who remembers MacGregor's missive castigating the Canadian government for refusing to push Canada into the front line of Dubya's war in Iraq?

Well, far be it from me to reopen an old off-topic debate about the ethics of the above. I merely wanted to suggest that a CEO who feels a patriotic calling of this kind might well feel that feeding his company's gold into the fires of fiat to shore up confidence in the US economy and hence the war effort was a noble act that transcended the ignoble motive of boosting shareholder value, particularly if he was called on to do so. Just a thought from a former shareholder, FWIW!



Max Rabbitz
(12/10/2003; 16:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113214)
Gold Selling by Gold Corp Seems Odd
I wonder if the Canadian authorities applied any persuasion in the matter. To have more gold than the host country could be a bit embarrassing. And of course the war to save paper fiat money is a serious matter. Governments have many tools at their disposal. A major reason the currency of resource rich countries has appreciated so much recently is that the market knows these governments can support their paper with an "excess profits" tax if needed, or confiscate outright. They'd have to be real desperate to try to confiscate my little stash.
CoBra(too)
(12/10/2003; 17:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113215)
The inimitable Mogambo Goru quotes:
The most inimitable Richard Russell, he of the Dow Theory Letters, writes memorable things, and that is partly why is newsletter is so successful for the last four or five decades. For instance, he penned "All the gold mined in the history of the world amounts to about $1.4 trillion. And there's the US government spending an amount equal to 70% of that in just the single year 2004. And then we have the years 2005 and 2006 to worry about."

He also opines that "The system of fiat money is really immoral, almost evil. It will not last." Well, most of us already know that. But what is the time frame? He says that it is shorter than you think, and that "Most of us will live to see the complete destruction of the US dollar." And when he says "most of us" he obviously means himself, too, and that is why he used the term "us," and I note with some alarm that Mr. Russell ain't no spring chicken. So the time frame must be pretty short".

Amen to this statement ... unfortunately ... cb2

CoBra(too)
(12/10/2003; 17:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113216)
... And would like to add
The inimitable "Barrons", once a serious business paper, or is it now "rag" has already killed one gold stock - Royally! - Has now to set out to kill an entire industry - including rags!

From rags to riches is a cliche', now only to be found in China ... as long as these entrepeneurs convert their fiat to reality in time!

Got Gold? cb2

Cometose
(12/10/2003; 17:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113217)
hui selloff
I have been watching the price movement of the silver/gold miners during the recent run up of spot silver from 5.20 to 5.67 today ......there have been many days in the last 6 weeks where the sellers would short the dickens out of Hecla and CDE in the morning anticipating a reversal in the price of spot .......many (most) of the days I was paying attention to this ....the share price of these two companies recovered toward the end of the day quite nicely ....these were 30 or 40 cent moves...that happened in a day and then recovered......most of losses....So in the last two days we have these two companies getting hit pretty good.......and they didn't recover ......still anticipating a reversal in the metals.....5.20 -5.70 is a pretty good move.....I thought we might have a little stall somewhere too.....but in spite of the fed meeting yesterday which was a moot event....and in spite of the hammering the hui took and the aforementioned retracement in price of hecla and cde......I have a little feeling inside that the manipulators of the stock prices of these silver cos are not going to get any reprieve and that perhaps we are not going to get a pause that refreshes.....so all I have to say to all those that are short selling gold and silver is .........You BETTER HAVE A LOT OF TAMPONS ON HAND BECAUSE THERE MAY BE A LOT OF BLEEDING SOON....................
21mabry
(12/10/2003; 17:51:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113218)
GG
This seems a strange reverse of buisness strategy for GG especially as gold is in a bull market.I would think that bullion would offer a better return in 2004 than cash.Something seems to have made them do an about face.Barrons may have done metal stock holders a favor,they seem to have given a buying oppurtunity that may not have occured but for their article.21
Aristotle
(12/10/2003; 17:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113219)
My special holiday wish...
is that Goldilox is the only person to have missed my point, and that he/she finds it before the night is through.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Mr Gresham
(12/10/2003; 17:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113220)
Aren't markets wonderful?
Just a couple incomplete thoughts to check in with here, briefly (and to show I'm still alive and breathing...)

I'd been lashing myself over missing the stock run-up (and picking the wrong ones and wrong timing during my few small short visits to that side of the street) and even thinking of cadging some sympathy here. Oh, the things I've watched, and watched, and watched. Took three called strikes. Boo-hoo. OK, enough. Looks like somebody's spooking the stocks today, so it re-opens the picture again.

Kudos to those who've made their two-, three- and more-baggers there -- you DESERVE! Most of you rode out the down years and overcame the depressing effects of feeling like those "gold losers" others saw us as.

Me, I over-estimated the systemic risks during this whole time. I really now see what a conservative investor I am. But I scare myself with financial "ghost stories" and often want to over-dramatize things (or simply can't see the timeframes and sequences in which things are most likely to play out.) Hey -- slack, please -- I'm new at all this!

Growing up and living in the fiat world is disorienting of all rational economic thought, methinks. You're always trying to outguess the next maniac!

What I should have allowed myself to see is that gold 250-400 was likely to be a system-safe (relatively safe) time period. And now, well, from here on, not so safe?

Anyway, the odds of a system blow-up (in which you cannot collect your paper winnings so easily, or in full) are higher in any given interval going forward, IMO. POG is both an indicator of systemic stress, and likely to trip some balance sheet implosions out there. Physical's in-hand safety trade-off with paper's leverage make it a difficult choice, at this point in time. (Of course, there's always diversification ;)

Agree or disagree?
slingshot
(12/10/2003; 18:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113221)
Gold's Aborption Rate
As we bask in the POG over $400, I have to ask what would send the POG down to maybe $350? How about $330. Ohh, $330 gold again. Could it be an outrite dump of some major CB tons of the yellow metal on the market? For us who have climbed the wall and now stand atop,would we faulter in our principles and beliefs and throw in the towel. Nay I say! As the never stopping printing press of FIAT and increasing limit of personal debt,the trade deficeit and government spending would still be at our doorstep.Nothing would have changed for the better. So, my fellow Knights and Ladies would those who have called us nuts be willing to accept that the fundamentals have not changed and that their lamention could be resended as a second chance was within their grasp. In the beginning as gold slipped to $254 it was a bad investment and now at $404 it is too expensive!
When gold hit $850 and Silver $50 was it for all the wrong reasons? And those who held on did not truly understand the market. They were fortune seekers who rode the band wagon.
I think this is where we fail to make believers out of non-believers. This nation is a nation of debtors and not savers.Those who have extra to invest are bonded to to the paper circus and have never experienced the ravages of inflation,recession or depression.
If this was to become reality and the POG plummet I would have to say that due to the recognition of gold today that any pullback would be absorbed and the price rebound.

We may see major swings in the POG yet.

Slingshot-------------------<>
Mr Gresham
(12/10/2003; 18:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113222)
And, also...
seeing that blank spot on the INO box above here -- quick stop in my breath -- you just know that someday we might see a blank like that -- on all the paper market scoreboards -- and (trying to recall FOA's thoughts here) find that it re-opens trading again in a completely different ballpark...
Mr Gresham
(12/10/2003; 18:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113223)
slingshot
Pulled out my wallet at the store today, dropped it, and all over the floor: dollar bills, business cards, receipts, scribbled notes, a pen... My next thought, as I crawled around recovering them:

Brittle systems break.

Swings, yes. And with each POG swing, like a thin metal bar bent back and forth, closer to "separation".

A certain amount of the remaining flexibility spent, to get it down again. Many more weak hands driven out, more "giants" getting their kids' trust funds on board. In it to win it.

How about this little goodie from Sinclair yesterday quoting China Daily in September:

"Prominent gold experts and officials are urging the government to lift the ban on individual trading as soon as possible. 20% of respondents in a recent national survey said that they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings on gold investments.

"Xi Jianhua, Bank of China's gold business expert, estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion Yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market. "

What's that -- about 3000 tonnes?

(My question for those people always is -- what about the other 70-90 per cent?)
slingshot
(12/10/2003; 19:11:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113225)
Mr Gresham
That's It! The other 70 to 90% Broaden the base. The wider the base the less shock. It is a battle for the minds. A position of presumed wealth ingrained within the average person that it is unbelievable that this paper will degrade.
How far has it degraded? Feel the new bills. Fake! Drop the change on the counter. Fake! Drop a Gold or Silver Eagle on the counter. I have. I wanted to hear them ring.
Heck drop a credit card on the counter;0) So when the run from the stock market to bonds to treasuries, real estate and any other cockamaymie idea, the end results will be precious metals. The only difference is how many find the truth before its too late.

Slingshot-----------<>
21mabry
(12/10/2003; 19:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113226)
Gold
It seems TPTB shot some heavy ammo today.Bank of Japan sold alot of Yen to help stabalize the U.S.D.GG playing the role of a small central bank and releasing its metal hoard into the market.A major financial publication attacking mining stocks.The fed maintaing historical low interest rates.What does it all mean?21
steady
(12/10/2003; 20:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113227)
my own proxy
uh aristotle you mean i can be my own proxy?
me: hey proxy go get me some gold
me/proxey: uh ok.
yep gold sure aint a proxy thing!
specie-man
(12/10/2003; 20:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113228)
Some observations about the silver & gold coin/bar market
I recently spent some time poking around eBay. I also happened to be driving by a local coin store so I stopped in to take a look around.

I have made an interesting observaion. All of a sudden it seems, a lot more people are bidding up the bulk silver coin lots on eBay, and are looking for it at local outlets. Along with other bullion items, of course.

I used to be able to buy small quantites of 80% Canadian silver coins now and then at at several percentage points BELOW the "melt" value. Today the going rate that I was quoted was about 4% OVER melt. And on eBay, the same thing seems to be happening. In years past, when silver went higher, the discount on bulk coins increased. This time, however, the opposite seems to have occurred. This, I would say, is a bullish indicator.

At the coin store today, one guy came in and sold two $1000 bags of 90% silver, along with some Australian silver/gold/platinum sets. Another guy came in and said "I want to buy $10,000 worth of silver today - what is the best way to do it ?". A couple college-age guys came in and one was looking at and asking about gold, "what would a Maple Leaf sell for today ?". The shop was definitely busy.

Me ? I bought a couple "Peace" silver dollars for $8.50 . That was about all I could afford.

I suppose one could also take all this as a contrarian indicator. I'm thinking the metals prices may now pull back by 5% or so before moving up again, but who knows.
Gandalf the White
(12/10/2003; 21:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113229)
CHART Question <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GSTUDY THIS CHART for a while and THEN YELL --- WOWSERS !!!
---
NOTE the last few HIGH VOLUME, UP days in the last days.
(The gray vertical bars on the baseline are UP days and the red vertical are DOWN days.)
---
Can you guess between the BOJ and the ESF, which one spent the most to "PROP-UP" the 30 Year Bond ?
---
AND note that it makes NO DIFFERENCE in which way it is headed !! --- (as indicated by the bottom MACD graph !)
---
Do you think that Ari is correct when he asks, "GOT GOLD?"
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/10/2003; 21:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113230)
Can someone tell me WHY ? (ANOTHER question ! ) <;-)
http://www.ino.com/?afWhy does INO have six digits after the decimal point, tonight?
Are they getting ready for GOLD priced in the THOUSANDS ?
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/10/2003; 21:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113231)
The days are flying by!!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

 
 
Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

 
usagold gold jewelry

10 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

Christmas jewelry delivery
 

Goldendome
(12/10/2003; 21:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113232)
Specie Man- Your walk to the bars. (Au/Ag)

Sir Specie-man: The chatter about Silver is increasing. Of late when talking Gold on occasion, the other party will interject: "and what about Silver?"

The Gold/Silver ratio has decreased from the high seventies-low eighties in the early part of the year (say May and June) to the low seventies now. Maybe this is a trend--maybe it's a sign that more people are aquiring silver?? I don't claim to know.

I do know that after not buying any Silver for nearly a year and a half, I bought two ten oz. bars myself yesterday...So..

As the financial woes increase and the price of Gold increases;;; I feel that many of those coming to physical later, may be looking at Silver, particularly if they have more limited budgets. I have seen lately rather (outrageous ?) future estimates for the price of Silver ranging up to $200/oz !!!! (Personally I'd just LOVE to see $20.00 again).

I don't know where you're buying this Silver under spot, but keep it up!! Most of the Silver that I see is priced about a buck over spot--at least!! And more if you have to figure in the price of shipping.

Gold is still the best way to go, and those of us in early must be thankful. There will come a time when, I feel, many of us won't be able to buy it! It may become like the waning final hours of bimetallism in this country, when the "big money guys" controlled all the gold and the little guys were left the silver.


By the way: I just love the design of those Peace Dollars that you bought.
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 22:24:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113233)
Thanks Ari
Thanks for the holiday wish, Ari. I'll take all the encouragement and and education you folks can offer!! I don't think I completely missed your point. I was just trying to figure out any alternative reasons for them to sell into the market. Sometimes I wonder why my local dealer doesn't close his doors and hoard everything in his shop, but I remember he is, in fact, a dealer. If Michael did that we'd all be in the dark. The larger reasons for GG selling SO MUCH gold are exactly what I count on you guys to help me with. I ask a lot of questions on this forum that go unanswered (perhaps because they seem too ignorant to some), but I always appreciate a deeper explanantion when I can get it. hey, sometimes it takes a couple decryptions to sink in, but I'm willing.

Thanks again,
Sir G'lox
Chris Powell
(12/10/2003; 22:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113234)
Don't hit the bottle just yet; hit the moving averages instead
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1808Latest GATA dispatch.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1808


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Black Blade
(12/10/2003; 22:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113235)
GoldCorp Gold Sales, Dividend, and Inventory Rebuild
http://www.goldcorp.com/
Snippit:

We continue to hold two fundamental beliefs about gold, First, that Gold is money, a fact we have been able to demonstrate with this special dividend and Second, that it remains in the early stage of a major multi - year bull market. As a result of these beliefs we have begun rebuilding our gold inventory and we will again continue to hold back approximately 10% of our production from sale. This is in anticipation of higher gold prices which will allow us to continue to generate further earnings growth and increased dividends to our shareholders.

HOW MUCH GOLD SHOULD WE HOLD BACK?

Our shareholders have been very enthusiastic supporters of our gold inventory program. We are pleased to have been able to reward this support with true bottom line value. However, we would like our shareholders to tell us how much gold we should continue to hold back. Is 10% enough? Your views matter to us - please let us know. We would also encourage other gold companies to follow our lead and generate higher returns to their shareholders by holding back a portion of their gold production. Gold is Money and Gold is in a Bull Market!

Goldcorp's Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED and pays a dividend twelve times a year. Goldcorp's shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.



Black Blade: OK for disclosure purposes I am a shareholder of GG. I am not going to make any buy, sell, or hold recommendations here � that's your own personal investment decision! That said, I do not see any details stating that the company sold all their gold. The Canadian Loonie is rising against the US dollar and gold is priced in dollars while their costs are in Loonies and Toonies. They state that they continue to believe that gold is money and will continue to hold gold in inventory. They also ask their shareholders how much gold they should continue to hold (see above in the press release). They state that they will rebuild inventories as well. The Red Lake Mine is their flagship operation and they have their fingers in a few pies and look to continue investing into promising explorers for a stake. Meanwhile reserves have expanded wildly at the mine. The problem is that they cannot continue indefinitely as a "one trick pony" either even though they have several years� worth of the lowest cost reserves in the industry. Of course they are unhedged and debt free � not a bad position to be in. I would suggest that the sales not only are to "share the wealth" with shareholders (a rare or unknown concept among most any publicly traded company I any industry), but the excess funds could be used to acquire a "piece of the action" of promising projects for what is now pennies on the dollar in a major historic gold bull market. In this way they can become not only gold producer, gold banker and acquirer, but essentially pick up where companies like the old Euro-Nevada and Royal Gold left off by also becoming a gold royalty trust company � that is letting other producers take the risk and in turn raking in a pile of cash and precious metals. As far as the inventory rebuild and "how much gold they should retain" question is concerned you are being asked by the company what you think (see the snippit above). If you are a shareholder (or even a potential shareholder) then see the link and make your statement in regard to the question and ask "investor relations" for the details and info � they do (at least for me have) answer your questions. They are not snobbish dweebs like you would expect from a typical NYSE company. I think that they should continue to hold a physical position of at least 10% even considering the huge high-grade reserves in the ground. But since this subject has been raised � make your concerns known and contact the company � after all they can't reach through the modem and slap you around for asking. ;-)

BTW, if you read today's DMR and several DMRs in the past few months you would know that I have recommended physical PMs over shares as the metals prices have been selling at a bargain against the shares at current prices - I guess I beat Barron's to the punch for quite some time. Just remember that we are only in the beginning stages of a multi-year secular "Gold Bull Market". Get that metal and build a firm foundation first in your wealth pyramid before expanding outward in ever more specualtive investments and ventures. Oh yeah, two more weeks until Xmas - check out the offerings at USAGOLD for gifts that keep on giving! Maybe help a parent or sibling get a taste of "investment" security or just a very nice hierloom to be handed down over time from one generation to the next.
specie-man
(12/10/2003; 22:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113236)
@ Goldendome - gold/silver coins/bars
The only decent silver coins or bars I've ever seen go for under spot are the Canadian 80% circulated coins, and a few years ago, some US 90% dimes & quarters and some 40% Kennedy halves. But it was't much under melt, and it doesn't seem to be available anywhere now at a discount like it was.

The nicer 10 oz bars always seem to carry a premium. I've never seen any priced at or near "spot". Always $0.50 or more over "spot" per ounce.

Everybody seems to like the "Morgan" silver dollars. I've always liked the Peace type better (partly because they are cheaper), and I think a lot of the Peace dollar dates are under-rated. BTW, the two I got were better dates (1927-S and 1934), so they were a pretty good deal.
Goldilox
(12/10/2003; 22:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113237)
PruBear Market report
http://prudentbear.comRob Peebles, in his inimatible style:

snippit:

Like a boxer after several rounds of a whipping, OPEC may be ready to say "no mas" to the dollar. According to news reports, Secretary General Alvaro Silva said that OPEC "is considering trading oil in euros to compensate for the US dollar's decline in value." Or the organization may do something else, like trade in a basket of currencies. OPEC's recent decision not to reduce oil output was attributed to the hit they have taken from a weakening dollar.

Repeat: There is no inflation

Thanks in part to low-carb, high-protein diets, egg prices are on the rise, and have hit prices not seen in 20 years. There are no reports from the Fed as to whether or not chickens are more productive.

According to Boston.com, the Governor of New Hampshire is not going to take it anymore. He's going to set up a program to import prescription drugs from Canada in clear defiance of the FDA. Other rebels considering the issue include the mayor of Boston and the states of Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan.

G'lox: Thanks Jon for the additional insite into GG. I acquired some more today at the 50dMA as fuel for next year's capital gains.
steady
(12/10/2003; 23:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113238)
stuff.
if you know what you know then you have to say what you have to say especially when its the truth.

open the mint , save the planet, free gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
steady
(12/10/2003; 23:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113239)
throwing the gauntlet down/missed by many.
if you reread the gold corp pr you will see they are chalenging other cos to follow there lead, ask the people of any good organization or team how easy it is to follow when you have 1) winners souronding you and 2) someone who wants to lead, but not only that but has repeatedly qtr after qtr can beat the competition and deliver. gold corp offers both qualities.
who will pick up the tourch and join gg and i am gold as the holders of honest money. any one of the top 10 mining companies would be a good place to look.but im afraid there to stick in past business practices to notice the mold for mining companies has been broken. a new more dynamic responsive , gold holding culture is developing as an off shoot of ecoism ( come on i had to work that in as that ois what is happening on a personal, regioanl, cultural , national and world wide and to think that businesses wount participate in acquiring gold is a mistake, see ecoism is all encompassing when it comes to gold. see when we see a co like lets say sherwin williams cause tehy want to cover teh world in paint but when we see a co like that declaring that they are holding there profits in gold or silver then we will have know ecoism had run its rampant course thru the business world thanks to gold corp gauntlet thrown down on this fine day dec 10, 2003 a day that will live in honest money proponents hearts.
my ears are open and im waiting for a response as im gold corp. hello are you out there/ or is the any intelligent life on this planet.
If asked the question, why sell all your hard earned gold for a depreciating fiat currency?
what are you mining for? to make money, well sun of a gun gold is money so why sell it. i wonder what mining ceo could look you in the eye and tell you the honest truth lay it all out there.
so lets see who responds, what i am gold needs to do is come out announcing additiona bullion purchases (maybe tehy could use our hosts to do there bidding for them.) and back gold coprs claim as gold is money and challenge those that are developing to look to there two companies as models to base there business decisions upon and become simply more than i extration and sell to the banks type of operation. see iag needs to market it just a lil differetn for teh developers to go this direction , while gg encourages the producers, bingo we be coverd top to bottom. as what gold corp and i am gold are doing is on the wave of the future for what well managed professionally run gold mining companies will look like 20 years from now.
gold corp: looking for more company!

silver and gold
honest money for
honest people!

the present has happend lets look to the future.
Aristotle
(12/10/2003; 23:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113240)
Goldilox, I'll put my finger dangerously close to the point
If I'm not mistaken, GoldCarp was plenty happy to market itself to naive investors on the strength of its gimmicky physical Gold position -- loudly put forth as a sort of (lame) pretense that owning shares of the company were a suitable equivalent to owning the Gold itself. (I'm sure everyone well remembers McEwan's crowing about not just mining for Gold, but also his efforts at buying it in the open market.)

My simple point was, is, and continues to be this: You can't *OWN* by proxy. You either have Gold, or else you have something that isn't Gold.

That little lesson might not seem like much right now, if you look at mid-term graphs of relevant price performances, as the larger net gains are still on the side of the paper proxy. Yet this I deem -- the performance and satisfaction of paper proxies and its investors have NOT YET BEEN TESTED, and we are closer to the test now than ever we have been in the past six years.

No need to hold your breath over it. And no need to go down with the ship, either. Paper title, share of operation, etc. is no substitute for the Real Thing, no matter how loudly crowed or neatly printed.

My point.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
steady
(12/10/2003; 23:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113241)
more stuff .. what the heck its always darkest before the light
with the upcoming winter solstice the next three weeks will be the darkest days of the year.
with nine days being on both sides of the swing date the solstice (dec 22) there is no other three week period that has longer nights than the three week period upcoming. just like what we saw today in the gold market survive this lil bumpin the road and brighter days will be ahead , not just for wealth preservation but on general discovery by people in all walks of life of the power teh allue and hopefully most importantly the true proper role of gold in controlling grred by those who run themonetary systems.
coming soon to you more sunlight and just like gold is currency specific in its appreciation so is the amount of sunlight increse is regional specific with those areas near the poles appreciating the fastes and those areas by the equator the slowest.
Black Blade
(12/11/2003; 01:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113242)
Market Wrap Up � Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snippit:

"Many Thanks to the BOJ"

Today the dollar firmed-up against most major currencies and money moved into Treasury bonds on speculation the Bank of Japan was selling yen to buy dollars, and would then use the dollars to purchase U.S. Treasury debt. Analysts close to the foreign exchange market suggested that Japan's central bank may have sold $5 to $6 billion in yen during overnight trading. Based on past occurrences, it is assumed that the yen sales would be used to support the falling U.S. dollar, and therefore support Japan's export industries. The Bank of Japan has sold $165 billion worth of yen this year alone in an effort to slow the decline of the U.S. dollar. I say many thanks to the Japanese, because without their support we would surely be looking at higher interest rates and a dollar with lower purchasing power. The Japanese have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt by 26% this year to almost $500 billion, so one must begin to wonder how much longer they will continue to increase their purchases of Treasury debt or if they are nearing the point of saturation.


Black Blade: The Japanese are just digging themselves deeper into a hole from which they will never reemerge. But if they are that foolish then "buy on"! Should be lotsa fun when they are left standing without a chair when th music stops.

Gondolin
(12/11/2003; 03:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113243)
Large Sales of Gold
Forgive my ignorance on the larger workings of CB buying and selling and Governmental buying and selling.

When it is disclosed that a CB sells large quantities of gold I am under the impression that it is not disclosed to whom it is sold. Is this correct? Likewise with the GG selling just announced, who has purchased the gold? Is it possible the Canadian Govt pressured GG to sell direct to them or another CB to replace the depleted Canadian gold reserves, possibly under advice of future hefty tax regimes on mined metal which would make the current sale more advantageous to GG.

Further, is much of this selling simply transferred ownership from one CB to another, in effect being a shift of the CB ownership of the bullion to another CB without the bullion disappearing from the 'collective' CB vaults.I have seen this suggested in the past(?)

When released to the market does it actually make it to the market to be swooped upon by whoever or does it just disappear to an undisclosed buyer?

This leads on to the next question with Treasury or Governmental purchasing - which must obviously be disclosed eventually - is it possible that CBs/ Governments are purchasing the gold, either directly or through proxies like the ESF, in an effort to re-stock the shortfalls leased from the CB vaults during the price suppression years?

There has been so much discussion that the state of the Fiat economies is in jeopardy, does it not make sense that Governments too would be seeking some form of insurance in the yellow metal?

Trust my line of questioning is clear, and would welcome any comments to clarify any of the above if I'm off target with my logic (or lack therof).
Black Blade
(12/11/2003; 05:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113244)
Gondolin
Good questions though. What CB gold are we talking about being sold - for example there has not been any independent audits of CB gold sitting in any vaults and sales are generally from one CB to another (essentially digital transfers on the bankers books). In fact it is "effectively" illegal to audit US gold supposedly held in Fort Knox. No one even knows if any gold actually exists in the "big white vault" or how much. Of course some sales may simply be currency paid by leasees to cover loaned gold that can't be returned to the bullion bank/central bank because it has long since been borrowed and sold. What can the bankers do? Rip gold necklaces off the necks of women, rings from their hands, and tear out their gold ear rings? There's probably a very good reason why the "buyers" aren't or can't be identified. This CB gold that is "officially" sold rarely if ever makes it to the open market.

- Black Blade
Kev
(12/11/2003; 06:25:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113245)
to goldilox msg #113180 (Central Bank Belgium)
Yes, basically it all boils down to a confiscation issue. Over the years Bank & State have been transferring reserves and surplus values of the Bank to the State without compensating the private shareholders who own 50%. It's just one Battle that's lost, but the War isn't over. There's also another procedure ongoing at the Court of Commerce in Brussels. The Supreme Court's ruling isn't final on the basic ground of the complaints. Moreover the lawyers of State&Bank are skating over thin ice because the Bank's and State's regulations are hyper contradictory & conflicting because of the typical Belgian build&fix methods. In the end if the State refuses to settle the whole thing through a fair deal with minority shareholders, we will take it to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. It's a long War, just like the BIS shareholders experienced. But in the end, Justice will prevail.


Belgian central bank's stock falls on court ruling

BRUSSELS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Shares in Belgium's central bank fell more than 16 percent on Thursday after a court ruled against minority shareholders who are fighting the bank over possession of its reserves.

Trading for the first time since the Supreme Court handed down its judgement on Wednesday, the bank's shares tumbled as much as 16.81 percent to 2,845 euros before recovering to 3,078 euros, down 10 percent on the day in active Brussels trade.

The shares had been suspended from trade since 1300 GMT on Wednesday in light of the ruling. The bank is one of the few central banks in Europe to have a stock listing.

A Brussels trader said the shares would remain volatile until the shareholders, represented by the advocacy group
Deminor, decided what to do next.

"If you bought into the (bank) on the possibility that you might get a part of the reserves, you've just realised that you have bought a lottery ticket," he said.

The Supreme Court ruled against the shareholders who had filed a lawsuit to overturn a 2002 law that transferred the bank's reserves to the Belgian state, saying they had misinterpreted it.

Deminor told Reuters after the ruling it had yet to decide whether to go to the European Court of Human Rights in
Strasbourg.

(Reuters)
Gondolin
(12/11/2003; 07:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113246)
ESF and murky off-shore entities
Black Blade thanks for your comments.

Again, excusing my grasp of the machinations of International trade, the larger bond and currency markets and reporting on transactions. The following is purely a line of thought not based on anything other than an amateur interpretation of possibilities in geo-political dealings.

The Exchange Stabilisation Fund / PPT is I believe purely set up to safeguard the US Dollar and economy against catastrophic events caused by geo-political or economic turmoil.

The PPT and its activities are particularly murky as many of the transactions they undertake could be considered to be covert rather than overt so as to avoid highlighting(hide) areas of concern in the economy, in effect manipulating the markets - which is deemed to be out of order in a so called Free Market.

There has been talk of the possibility, though unlikely, of the US revaluing its' gold reserves to market value rather than the old $42(?)/ounce figure that the reserves are currently valued at. Should the US do this, despite the vast debt mountain, how would this affect the imminent collapse in value of the US dollar. Would marking it to the POG allow the dollar to avoid collapse?

No-one knows where much of the gold on the market is going, who the end purchasers are. IS it possible that the US could be covertly buying bullion through the ESF/ PPT and /or those murky off shore conglomerates, and that this gold could be not only replacing sold reserves but actually increasing Treasury holdings, albeit discreetly?

Would the US Govt be chastised or praised if they had been quietly increasing gold reserves this whole time and successfully used gold to avoid a melt-down of the US economy?

Just another 'conspiracy' theory, but surely there must be someone at the top who has access to all the information we have access to, and has considered looking at some golden insurance?
Belgian
(12/11/2003; 07:17:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113247)
@Gondolin
Simply a reflexion (not an answer) on your question :
All fiat (currency) and all its derivatives are * political * - * paper * - * numeraires * ! It are the changing political balances of power that say what paper is exchangeable for.

For the time being, Gold, with its political overpowerment, has been "paperized".

* IMPOSSIBLE * to find out the whole truth about the totality of paper-gold-positions (visible + hidden ones). For this to remain so...ALL Physical Gold positions, around the globe, must remain absolutely hidden. Indirect evidence (to me) that one's Physical Gold position (CBs) is evolving to a crescendo importance !!! This in preparation for the transition (morphing) of the existing International Monetary System.

When Japan is selling yen for dollar...*who* is buying those yen from, and selling dollar to the Japanese ? Always ask yourself who has interest of standing on the other side of the coin. These currency "interventions" are *never* fully explained and absolutely untransparent. Draw the parallel with paper gold and Physical Gold. We always know who the sellers are and never who the buyers (holders) are and to what extend they buy and/or hold .

Goldmines don't give a damn as to where their Gold is going ! They are all in the paper gold business !

Currencies flip flop around in the daily forex caroussels.
The only currency that really matters, for the time being, is the dollar, "only" because of its "reserve" status.

Consider for instance how one has to interprete the play of "sell and lease back" ! How many, political, under the ledger, variables, are there in such a play as one example out of many others ?

Can and will the present International Monetary order remain functioning in its present form ??? I think it can't and wan't. The dollar-crisis has become too systemic for being able to survive for much longer. The stealth (!!!) "redistribution" of Physical Gold is imo a good barometer.

The number of all your paper assets can fluctuate wildly whilst GOLD remains.... GOLD.... forever. Once Gold has found its "appropiate" numeraire...it will fly !
Belgian
(12/11/2003; 07:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113248)
@Kev
Those private Belgian National Bank (BNB) (cfr. BIS) share-holders (50%) will have the choice between bonds (fiat derivative) or nothing as compensation. That's what those BNB shares were (should have been interpreted) in the first place. Not a participation in the ownership (profits) of the BNB enterprise, but a BNB bond. ALL paper (fiat derivative) is a * political numeraire * or a derivative therefrom. Even Private enterprises have to operate in a 100% fiat environment and are therefore, indirectly, politically interdependant. Only Freegold in a Free Gold Market is absolute freedom. The politicos know this better than anyone else.

So far, not a word about the goldsales of the BNB ! Note that Deminor remains very cautious about this aspect of the whole, "political", matter.

Political paper gold versus Physical Freegold !!!
HighPtFarm
(12/11/2003; 08:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113249)
Sale of Goldcorp's Bullion
I do not own shares of stock for the obvious reasons..... I prefer to own something real, such as the gold coins I can buy through CPM. I have however, made the exception to own some Goldcorp shares because of their low cost proven gold reserves on the North American continent, no debt of their balance sheet as well as their propensity to store part of their gold production for long-term investment.

I communicated with Goldcorp through their Investor Relations site to convey my thoughts and I decided to put them on the board for consideration.

I would rather Goldcorp start its own gold deposity fund like the Central Fund of Canada to hold its inventory of stored gold. That way they would not have to sell gold on the open market to realize it corporate profits and declare shareholder dividends but rather issue fund shares that can be traded by those who are in need of some tranactional fiat currency.

I'm placing this concept on this great board as "food for thought". I would appreciate any comments from the particpants of the BEST gold message board on the internet. I also want to thank CPM for maintaining the board as well as Jonathon for the great customer service.
Buongiorno!
(12/11/2003; 10:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113251)
Goldcorp reserve sales
I have just emailed Goldcorp, agreeing that gold is, indeed, money--perhaps they could use the dividend process to "sell" their surplus reserves to their own shareholders. This would avoid feeding the market and allowing shorts to cover.

Perhaps have a private minting with a unique strike. Past that, why should Goldcorp or any other mining company sell all their production into the market, thus helping the shorts to cover? (I smell a possible new product line for Sir MK.) I would purchase such coins from time to time and perhaps others would also be interested. What say you-- knights and ladies?

The sad, sad, truth is that if automobile companies marketed their products the same way mining companies sell their gold--why I probably could go buy a new Corvette for about $10,000! (And get a zero interest loan to boot!)

Chin-chin--ting!

Buongiorno!
Gandalf the White
(12/11/2003; 10:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113252)
WAY to GO !!, SPOT and SPIKE
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1NICE $4. UP move in NY !!
KEEP Jumping !
<;-)
Buongiorno!
(12/11/2003; 10:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113253)
Great Minds
Whilst I was composing and editing, Goldilox and HighPtFarm were thinking and writing much the same thing! Methinks many here are on the same wave length! Cheers!!
Buongiorno!
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 10:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113254)
Follow the bouncing ball
Another successful defense of $400+

Thank you Barron's, I got a bunch of gold stocks on the cheap when they took a breather.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 10:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113257)
China depeg
The geniuses on CNBC just suggested that Sir AG and co prefer a repeg to a new arbitrary value as a complete depeg might "increase volatility" in the currency markets.

Yeah - right! Can you spell "US$ MELTDOWN". If China depegged tomorrow, we would overnight start tracking $ vs. YUAN even more fervently than $ vs. euro, as the daily currency deltas would swamp the current ones.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 10:51:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113258)
Sir AG
His speech on protectionism is being carried live on CNBC RIGHT NOW!
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 11:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113259)
S & P raises ratings for Brazil
REUTERS
S&P revises Brazil`s outlook to positive
December 11, 2003 12:33:06 (ET)

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

NEW YORK, Dec 11 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlook on its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on the Federative Republic of Brazil to positive from stable. Standard & Poor's also affirmed its 'BB' long-term local, 'B+' long-term foreign, and 'B' short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the republic; the stable outlook on the long-term local currency rating was affirmed.

Goldilox:

Gee - Brazil is rated "stable". Of course, when rates rise, as they must inevitably do, the banana republics will fall drastically as they always do. Loan them a zillion $$ at variable rates and watch them squirm when growth forces the rates back up!!! FOA and Wizards of Money have explained it all ad nauseum.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 11:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113260)
10 Yr Bond auction
CNBC just reported that the 10yr bond auction was only subscribed to a rate of 29% by foreign customers, as opposed to 38% in the last auction.

The bilge pumps are not working, so the foreign CBs are BAILING!
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 11:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113262)
AT&T raises layoffs from 10% to 12% for 2003
Rueters
News 19.98 0.1AT&T says to cut 12 percent of work force
December 11, 2003 13:21:50 (ET)

NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - AT&T Corp, the largest U.S. long distance telephone company, said on Thursday it would cut 12 percent of its work force, up from its previous estimate of a 10 percent reduction.

AT&T has been trying to cut costs to offset shrinking revenue and increase competition from local telephone companies that had recently entered the long distance market.

Goldilox:

Happy Christmas to 2% more of T's workforce. Another impressive cost cutting measure to enhance productivity. Unemployment filings increased this week by only 13,000, so certainly "all is well" in the economy!

"dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones!"
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/11/2003; 11:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113263)
The days are flying by!! Make your holidays shine!
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

 
 
Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

 
usagold gold jewelry

9 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

Christmas jewelry delivery
 

MK
(12/11/2003; 11:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113264)
Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"
We haven't done this for a long time, but this looks like a good time to do it again:

We would like to get the lurkers involved, get some new thoughts, ideas, opinions in the mix here at the Forum.

So. . .

The next 50 first time posters will receive a free copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing" delivered to your door. Here's how to get one:

1. Get a posting code (if you don't already have one).

2. Post on anything you like having to do with the gold market, the economy as it relates to the gold market, etc. If you can't think of anything else to post on, try this:

USAGOLD has become my internet gold site because________________________ (fill in the blank)

Your post must be at least 50 words long.

3. Send an e-mail after you post to the new member of our staff, Gabrielle, with your name, address, etc. Indicate the number of the post. We will check to make sure that this is your first post, do don't try to slip one by us.

Send info to :
gabrielle@usagold.com

Make "First-Time Poster" your "subject"in both the e-mail and in the posting subject box

4. The idea is to get new people involved in the discussion. We think you'll find the atmosphere very friendly. What we hope to do is get you involved and keep you involved as a poster for a long time to come.

Please remember though: No stock touts.

Gandalf, o great wizard and advisor extraordinaire, would you please kind of monitor these whole proceedings?? If I left anything out here that need to be said, let us know.

Remember, the books go to the first fifty who make their AND get their information e-mail to Gabrielle.

Happy posting! Long time lurkers and new lurkers are welcome!!
J-Bullion
(12/11/2003; 11:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113265)
Brazil rating raises
Of course with the dollar collapsing, and Brazilian debt denominated in dollars (I think the Brazilian Real is up over 20% vs. the dollar this year), their debt is shrinking.
Gandalf the White
(12/11/2003; 12:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113266)
WOWSERS SIR M. K. --- Early Christmas Presents !!!
My Crystal Ball shows that there were a lot of NEWBIES in the last POG Contest, together with many LURKERS that may not fully understand why so many of us Goldhearts are constantly gathering the YELLOW !

SIR M. K.'s book, "The ABCs of Gold Investing" can answer these doubts and questions !

SOOOOO, come on and get your FREE "posting code" at the link "Discussion Forum Guidelines" atop the Forum page and LET US HEAR FROM YOU, and the FREE book "The ABCs of Gold Investing" will be under the Christman tree !!

<;-)
TownCrier
(12/11/2003; 12:47:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113267)
Testing forum font size
Someday, all fonts will be made this way...

Recommend for typical screen resolutions that your browser's font preference setting is on a standard 12pt selection for generally acceptible performance throughout the worldwideweb. Occasionally you may encounter a page somewhere out there in the world for which it is beneficial to use your temporary 'increase' or 'decrease' font size buttons on that window to assist readability. These are typically found in your browser's tool/button bar, or else may be accessed through your 'View' menu bar selection.

R.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 12:49:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113268)
Lurkers
Hey Lurkers, here's your chance. CPM will offer you a number of opportunities to get involved in contests (win gold or silver), debates, and most of all EDUCATION. The booklet's informative, as well.

I know they welcome your business in bullion or jewelry, but in my two years here, no one has ever spammed or solicited me, so don't hesitate for fear of a hard sell later. It just doesn't happen here. when you're ready to buy or sell, YOU contact THEM.

There are lots of opinions posted here from ALL OVER THE GLOBE. Check the posting rules (some simple courtesies to the host and other posters) and jump on in the pool. The water's fine!

Follow the wizard's posted directions and join in.
Jing Zu
(12/11/2003; 12:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113269)
Thank you! Gandalf the White!
Yes, you are correct! I also noticed a lot of new handles in the contest.

Thank you for hosting the GOLD contest! I enjoy them very much and have been trying to win again.

A word fitly spoken is like apples of gold in pictures of silver.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/11/2003; 13:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113270)
Here it is. You can "earn" it by posting, or else simply buy it as you might prefer.
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter-century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm." (order info)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Jing Zu
(12/11/2003; 13:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113271)
Wow Weeee
The dollar just dropped real suddenly , down a lot! But I am sure that ya'll know this already...88.85
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/11/2003; 14:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113272)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Spot Gold still above the $400 level! Bargain hunters for physical precious metals reemerge on the dips knowing that Japanese currency intervention efforts are only a temporary effect while the "twin budget deficits" stoke the fires of concerned professionals.

BTW, I got a nice gold ring inlaid with a blue opal from an old friend who is headed out of country for the holidays. This reminds me to tell you that there's just a couple of weeks left until Christmas so be sure to check out the USAGOLD offerings soon.

Jon H. Warner
Federal_Reserves
(12/11/2003; 14:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 113273)
(No Subject)

From breifing.com...
The Fed has once again succeeded in saying just what everyone wanted to hear, as both the cash and the bond markets are rallying on the heels of the release of the FOMC minutes... Specifically, the minutes revealed that with regard to the labor market, the committee saw 'large margins of unemployed labor' until late 2005...???

>>>>
Its true, legions of unemployed workers are great for stocks and bonds. Keeping the working man down under, with no ability to ask for big wage hikes is a key component of rising stock prices and bonds. It keeps inflation at bay, stocks and bonds number one enemy. And Mr. Greenspan's outspoken favor for global trade also helps keep wages under control as our factories are shipped to cheap sweatshops offshore. This allows him to pump fiat into the system endlessly raising the value of paper assets. Some say he is creating inflation, but I don't see it, not without wage gains.
Mr Gresham
(12/11/2003; 14:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113274)
Who now remembers history?
(Paraphrasing Adolf's "Who now remembers the Armenians?" as he set about on another genocide.)

Some of the finest ethical minds have worn uniforms, and learned painful lessons from the mistakes of others and themselves. When they speak, they deserve our ear.

Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, to his son Manfred, a few weeks before Hitler ordered his death, in October, 1944:

"War has seldom brought anything for any of the people engaged in it. But the people aren't usually asked. Once war has begun, you go on fighting simply to get the best you can out of it. But what when there is no more to be got? Then it's better to stop it at once. And that, you see, is our position today, except that we are fighting an enemy in the East before whom there can be no surrender...

"...Anyway, one thing is quite clear, it's intolerable that the fate and welfare of a whole nation should depend on the whim of a small group. There must be some limit, otherwise, the most fantastic things can happen without anyone noticing."

G: Will our on-paper Constitution and other Founding Documents be but the high-water mark of a decent humanity's brief, failed attempt to live without tyranny?
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 14:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113275)
Inflafla
@ Federal_Reserves

Inflation can better be defined by the rise in money creation, rather than prices and wages, which can be an effect of inflation. It's true we have yet to see the rises in prices, partly because of the deflationary effect of cheaper imports (the dollar is, of course, doing it's Newton's apple imitation). Wages, as well, are not rising specifically because of the competitive nature of global trade enhanced with high unemployment. Remember, they only report new layoffs (registered with the UE comp folks) and new job creation. Although layoff numbers are declining, the poor slobs laid off last year are mostly not working, or trrying to make it as self-emloyed in some activiity. Measuring today's job creation against today's layoffs is another deceptive practive by the statisticians.

The strong competition for available jobs will keep the wage numbers low until fuller employment is achieved. Sadly, the effects of prices will start to be felt sooner than wage increases due to spikes in commodity and raw materials we are already experiencing.
Waverider
(12/11/2003; 14:28:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113276)
Uh oh...Randy
....I find the fonts size prior to 1159 is easier to read, IMHO....anyone else have thoughts about the fonts? I have my view size on medium, and default to 12 and find this a little small, plus I find that it loses the black-white contrast.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 14:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113277)
Inflafla continued
to sum up the thought, inflation is taking place in a big way, and a quick perusal of teh FED's website can show that with the figures on money creation. Towne Crier often reports these to us here at the forum.

While it's true we are not seeing all the effects of inflation (food, medical, housing, energy are exempted from the calculations), we are experiencing some already. Just like movements in interest rates, the effects of FED actions often take time to demonstrate themselves, and even more time to reverse the effects.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 14:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113278)
FONTs
I'm using 16 point Times New Roman. FONT size needed can be different based on the FONT chosen, as well, since every FONT map is created individually and then resized proportionally to the map. The screen size and resolution also has a lot to do with it. I use a 12" screen (laptop) at 1024x768 pixel resolution.

I might also be butting in on something you guys are doing that has nothing to do with any of this. If so, excuse and ignore me.

G'lox
steady
(12/11/2003; 14:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113279)
eocism
so no one has taken it upon themselfs to lableand define what is happening regarding the effewcts of the dollar falling.
well im not waiting for someone else to lable it i allready have.
the movement is called ecoism, where individuals , the stae on all levels and businesses are accumulating gold.
they are also moving towards being more honest and restoring hte integrity of the systems.
the movement which is now gaterhing steam from the bubling percolating gold caldera and is set to recruit new menbers one mind at a time. Heck sometimes we dont even have to recruit as well they just figure it out themself.
But the movement is alive, and well and the numbers of people who belive in ecosim will continue to grow, they just wont necassaily know they are ecoites untill the mass media redefines and relables teh terms used here and presents its version of ecoism to the masses so they can understand what in the heck is happening in regards to the currency wars that are taking place.
TownCrier
(12/11/2003; 14:46:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113280)
Waverider, and general technical assistance to all
It's possible that we are working against each other without realizing it.

Font types such as Times and Times New Roman are generally smaller in appearance than a corresponding point size in Verdana, Geneva, Monaco, etc. When we switched our pages over to a sans-serif (i.e., verdana) -based font, it became necessary to knock the font size down one peg from standard size.

It sounds like your browser's base settings are good with respect to fontsize. However, this is where we may be working against each other.

A browser will typically have preference settings available (for example, under "web content" on Internet Explorer) that will allow a users browser to either use or override a web page's specifications for fonts and colors. Note, I did not mention size.

Therefore, if you have your browser set to NOT allow a page to specifiy the font type (or color), it is possible that you are seeing our pages in your own chosen font TYPE, however it is being done in the SIZE "-1" that our page specifies. And as alluded to above, the smaller size works well with our new Verdana, but it will appear very small if you are overriding our verdana with your own Times-type font.

It may be best to check your settings to ensure that your browser is set to allow the webpage to specify the font type used in the display of that page. After all, there is an marriage of size and type in the end display, and the results will surely be less than the designer's purpose if you override one element while having no corresponding ability to compensate for the other. I hope that all made sense.

Good luck!

Randy
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(12/11/2003; 15:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113281)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

I will be out of town tomorrow and through the weekend and possibly a couple of days early next week barring any more snafus (Murphy's Law). This little project has been one fiasco after another lately but hopefully this time it will go as smoothly as the other projects and be completed in short order. This time I will be onsite to supervise things and hopefully there will be no "surprises".

Meanwhile, I expect to see the precious metals remain in a tight range for the time being but any economic or geopolitical event can change things in a hurry. That's why we hold physical for "insurance" purposes.

Jon H. Warner
Agingfast
(12/11/2003; 15:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113282)
Federal Reserves
Yes, we call that the triumph of capital over labor -- or the rich over the poor.
Waverider
(12/11/2003; 15:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113283)
Randy, Goldilox
Thanks for the explanation and suggestions. I think I've got it fixed! Cheers!
Boilermaker
(12/11/2003; 15:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113284)
Greenspans Latest Non-Conventional Wisdom
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20031211/bs_nm/economy_greenspan_dcsnip;
"A rise in the value of the renminbi would be unlikely to have much, if any, effect on aggregate employment in the United States, but a misaligned Chinese currency, if that is indeed the case, could have adverse effects on the global financial market and, hence, indirectly on U.S. output and jobs," Greenspan told the World Affairs Council of Greater Dallas. .........
Arguing against what he termed the "so-called conventional wisdom," Greenspan said the loss of U.S. jobs was not due to low-priced competition from abroad but to weak exports, a drop in business investment and increases in business efficiency.
comment;
This is another instance where AG has expressed an opinion opposite to that of the Bush gang, ie., John Snow's pathetic appeal for a renminbi revaluation. He might be running for the Democratic ticket next week.

Boilermaker
Boilermaker
(12/11/2003; 16:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113285)
Randy's Font Control
Randy, I loved the brief change in fonts to the larger more easily readable size. Could you please put it back? Otherwise, please come over to my house and change my settings for me.
Boilermaker
Waverider
(12/11/2003; 16:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113286)
Boilermaker
Go to your upper toolbar to "View" and click, go to "Text Size", and increase/decrease it by a notch...it will change your fonts size across the board, but I didn't find it a problem.
Boilermaker
(12/11/2003; 16:18:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113287)
Market Action
The rapid turn-a-round in gold stocks today suggest that they have attracted a lot of "hot" money. A gold stock bubble? Maybe for the paper forms in the short term. The real stuff seems quite stable even with the opposition's efforts to keep it down. I love this game.
Boilermaker
Boilermaker
(12/11/2003; 16:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113288)
Bless You Waverider
I did it!! Praise the Lord and thanks to Lady Waverider.
steady
(12/11/2003; 16:35:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113289)
the abeyance is over, bring on the dinar!
gold may have experienced a 32 year period of abeyance but forces greater than this planet can handle are changing that. butr rembrer dont abeer your neighbors stash.
goldenboy
(12/11/2003; 16:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113290)
Goldcorp Physical Gold
IMO as a shareholder they should sell when physical is well above the moving 50 day average and withhold when the price is under the average.
I wish this were the only way a company could hedge.
Goldendome
(12/11/2003; 16:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113291)
To those wondering (worrying) about large Gold sales!!

I say DON'T worry about it!!!! There is plenty of paper out there just wanting to soak up something tangible (primarily physical Gold). Just as you and I may part with a $1000. here and there to aquire a few coins...There are others (nations) with billions waiting to soak up physical Gold. These large holders of paper need (must have) LARGE supplies of physical gold to buy into,,,otherwise, they can not do the deal!! Where would they get the gold?? They would flood the market with paper--outstripping suppy available, and causing a sky rocket in the price as they are attempting to buy in... Now, that is not to say that the price may not eventually sky-rocket and at least rise in a dramatic if orderly manner. But make no mistake about it...If there is a large willing seller,, there will be a LARGER buyer!!!
Boilermaker
(12/11/2003; 16:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113292)
GG Gold Sale
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031210/105573_1.htmlsnip;
In selling this gold we have crystallized unrealized pre-tax income of $40 million or $0.22 per share, which on an after tax basis is $0.13 per share. As a result of our strategy we are now forecasting both earnings growth and record earnings for 2003. We are extremely pleased to be able to do so in gold's new bull market

comment
I was surprised that GoldCorp sold their gold holdings especially if wasn't needed for cash requirements. The capital gains were apparently taxed at a 40% rate which seems like a stupid sale to me just to pay out 10 cents per share dividend. It smells a bit fishy. I'd rather have a physical distribution to shareholders.
Boilermaker
Bulldog
(12/11/2003; 17:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 113293)
Mr. Gresham #113274
As a Canadian looking at your country, I see a great erosion of your constitutional rights. No one in the media criticizes the government effectively. Ethics and morality or lack thereof commencing with Bill Clinton told the citizenry it was okay to lie and cheat. T.V. programming on most networks is not worth watching, eg. Celebrity Justice. The corruption on Wall Street and probably Bay Street (Toronto) is rife. The N.Y. A.G. has just begun to ferret out the crooks. Is it any wonder then that the $U.S. dollar is descending into oblivion? The U.S. reaction to 911 to tie that to Saddam was too big a leap for most of the rest of the world.
How can anyone have any faith in the words (doublespeak) of Alan Greenspan. Read some of the speeches by our Bank of Canada Governor Dodge on their website and you will be refreshed by the clarity of language.
As countries, we have the longest undefended border in the world. We are doing our best to assist militarily in Afghanistan, but since we did not jump right in on your war with Iraq, Canadian firms are precluded from any rebuilding contracts in that country.
I think the world would have been a much safer prosperous place had the international police organizations had the responsibility for searching out the criminals connected to 911.
If your big suppliers, China and Japan stop supporting your debt, the empire will be brought down without a shot.
Perhaps then, our two countries will get back to civility again and such things as the softwood lumber dispute will be history. There are lots of reasons why your country is in decline and gold is in the upswing. I doubt that middle class America will ever buy physical in any quantity before the price is out of reach. There is just too much household debt.
One last thought. Those prisoners in Guantanamo Bay--are they prisoners of war? If not, do they ever get a trial?
P.S. I know of no one personally that buys physical other than those on this forum. My friends congratulate me on my
"acumen", but you only book a profit when you sell and I intend to be a buyer in the foreseeable future. I do not envisage me ever selling same.
Dollar Bill
(12/11/2003; 17:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113294)
*>*............+
Sir Bulldog, trust me on this, the american media criticizes the Bush administration. Not effectively you say?
VERY effectively, only, the critics positions are weak, thier analysis is not convincing.
davefinger
(12/11/2003; 18:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113296)
Dollar Bill
Thanks man! Best joke I've heard all day! I don't come here for that though. Now if we could get back to gold...?

Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 19:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113297)
Criticism from the Media
http://wizardsofmoney.orgEFFECTIVE CRITICISM? Fair and Balanced?
Only on the internet or in the library!

Criticism of TPTB (no matter who is in power) in the mainstream media brings ostracization and demonization, or worse. We don't get Geraldo Rivera and Ollie North because they are good journalists! They play the game! The democrats will not really change anything, as they are just mad because they got demoted to the cheap seats by the NeoCons.

Bill Bonner, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, et al, NEVER appear on the financial media anymore, because it's much more pallatable to have Heckle and Jeckle tell us how awesome the economy is. This entire "gold revolution" is fueled on the internet, because the TV people are either stupid or crooked. I'll leave the reader to determine who is which.

Reread the "FOA", "Wizards of Money", "Financial Reckoning Day", and "Boom, Gloom, and Doom" and tell me if you've EVER seen this information on TV. HECK NO, and you never will. The publicist for Financial Reckoning Day just resigned because no one would even give Bill Bonner a mention on TV's "fair and balanced coverage". Everything we discuss on this forum (even when we stay carefully focused on golden economics) is just not welcome in the broadcast media. After all, the truth hurts a little too much, and TPTB dare not trust an informed electorate.

Get your information from the internet, and get your gold from CPM!
Ten Bears
(12/11/2003; 19:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113298)
Goldilox More on criticism from the media
http://www.worldnewsstand.net/book/enemywithin/page15.htm"There is no such thing, at this date of world's history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it. There is not one of you, who dares to write your honest opinions, and if you did, you know, beforehand, that it would never appear in print. I am paid weekly for keeping my honest opinion, out of the paper" John Swinton, the former Chief of Staff for the New York Times.

Goldendome
(12/11/2003; 19:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113299)
" EOCISM " the word

Sir Steady: I'm wondering if you were listening to the same NPR radio program as I; a few weeks ago, when some sort of a language expert was describing the steps needed to have a word qualify for entry into the dictionary?? ((( And most important, to be Given credit for the words Creation))).

A few important items were that the word be used in various print form, by a multiple number of users,,,,and to have a meaning that is gaining acceptance in usage, (like the word "website" not too many years ago).

So far, I see only one person using the word "Eocism"--Well now, I guess, two, since I just used it, so you're making progress, here anyway. But is anyone else using it anywhere else? Other than you, I mean. Or, are people writing in just to ask-- what's that word ?

It's your word and that's fine, but when I see the word--Eocism--- I see Ralph Nader and some Green army saving the Green Forest "ism" like socialism, Communism.

To describe the "screwing up" of the economy, the dollar, and worldwide financial markets: I believe I would use some form of words to reflect that,, like the word: "Econofornification"!! Now unless I get censored,,,Doesn't that sound about like the way things are going???

Sir Gandolf: Can I start to use my word?
Buongiorno!
(12/11/2003; 20:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113300)
Sir Bulldog
Hey, mate, take a deep breath--such venom from our good friends to the North! Mercy!

To quote George Will,"Who appointed Canada as America's moral auditors?"

Our exchanges need improvement? Darn right--but could Enron merely be an echo of Bre-x?

Constitutional erosions? Quite an accusation from a gun-control state! (IMVHO)

War on terrorism? When you fellas get hit,(God forbid) bury several thousand of your own--then you get to tell us how to deal with things. Prisoners at Gitmo? They are war criminals, not POW's. They get a trial when we say they do. Anyone else would have already executed them. Rest easy, while incarcerated there, they will not interfere with your socialist state.

As for your "international police organization" would you have the UN confront Saddam? (He was shakin' in his boots for twelve years!) Tell it to the Bosnians, Hutu, and Tutsi people...really!

If you want our two countries to "get back to civility"--put a sock in it, mate, and lighten up a bit. This will all be past us, hopefully soon. Let's drink a toast to what gold will do tomorrow, and tomorrow....your gold coin is just as good as mine....and to hell with the politicians....we can't control them anyway!

Chin-Chin....ting!

Buongiorno!
Ten Bears
(12/11/2003; 20:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113301)
Mr. Gresham; "Who now remembers history?"
A few quotes on war and history.

Douglas MacArthur; " Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear-kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor-with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home, or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it."

Aldous Huxley; "The charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different."

Sir Peter Ustinov; "War is terrorism of the rich. Terrorism is war of the poor".

Robert Zimmerman/Bob Dylan; "Masters of War" 1963


Marx; "War is the method by which capitalism, at the climax of its development, seeks to solve its insoluble contradictions."


Rett Butler (internet); "Short term, America can bomb the snot out of any country on the planet. Long term, it never works."


Frederic Bastiat; "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."

Smedley Butler,(commending general, marine corps,1934); "War is a racket."

Ernest Hemmingway; "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."

Friedrich Nietzsche; "Insanity in individuals is something rare�but in groups, parties, nations and epochs it is the rule."
Max Rabbitz
(12/11/2003; 20:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113302)
Hello Bull Dog,
Good to hear from our Northern Neighbor. When is your National Bank going to back it's currency with something other than promises? We are not so different. Our future is closely related, regardless of short term politics, unless of course the we get another leg of the ice age, and those Darned Canadian glaciers force me into the Carribean. But until then, I've got a little investment in Canadian Natural Gas Stocks (since I can't store the stuff in the backyard). Louis Brandeis, an old U.S. Supreme Court Justice, said that most of the evil of the world was done by people trying to do good. Simple humility is often the best course. There is a lot we do not know.

Someone said power corrupts. I forget who. Probably lots of people cause there has been so much corruption for so long. Anyway, your neighbor to the south has had a good dose of it. Part of it was earned, the power part. The Constitution was pure genius. The market economy was a harsh master, but productive and usually fair, at least more than the corrupt political payoffs now in vogue from the super state. Time passes. All turns to dust, except perhaps softwood lumber whose intricacies I am not privy too, except to say that I know Canada has miles of coniferous forest ready for the blade, and insect pests ready to eat them if they are not cut.

With regard to our Afghanistan (mostly non-Afghan) prisoners in Guantanamo, yes this really is a war and they are prisoners of war until the war ends. Do I have to pay their legal fees now?

Is it time to evacuate to the Carribean?

I'm ready.

Got Gold?

Max



21mabry
(12/11/2003; 21:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113303)
Max Rabbitz
Lord Acton, Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutley.We can see this premise in those who control the financial systems of this world.21
Max Rabbitz
(12/11/2003; 21:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113304)
21 Maybry & Lord Acton
Yes there is a relationship. But trust only yourself. Question all others. And then question yourself.

No one has absolute power, therefore none have absolute corruption. (Max 2003)

Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 21:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113306)
Media criticism
@ ten bears

Believe it or not, I edited my response a few times to take all the grossly political thoughts out of it and replace them with pure economically political ones. Even the library is getting rid of all the old books. I know they are terribly unfunded, but once I read all the sailing books, I lost interest in their poorly stocked shelves. Try looking for books by oldies but goodies like Wilhelm Reich and you'll find them purged. It's like going to the video store. All the old movies are gone, and if there is not enough demand to convert it to DVD, sayonara Ethel! I tried to rent "Kelly's Heros" when the stories of Iraqi gold surfaced, and I could only find it at the library. Ah that's it. the library is not for old books, it's for old videos.

The internet really is the last bastion of free thinking, and there are a lot of folks working tirelessly to restrict it as well.

The electronic revolution has almost made "Ferenheit 451" an unnecessary fear. Books have gone the way of vinyl records.
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 21:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113307)
"Sellers are scarce" says McGuire
ODJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Easier But Sellers Scarce


-- Profit Taking Allowed For Friday If Dollar Gains

By Gavin Maguire
New York, Dec. 11 (OsterDowJones) - Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled $1.60 lower at $405.40 per ounce Thursday.
The fairly sedate session saw prices drop to four-day lows of $403.30 on a sturdier U.S. dollar before leveling off above that level on a letup in the early selling pressure.
The early sales were spurred by the short covering-led upturn in the U.S. dollar that rendered dollar-denominated gold more expensive to non-U.S. consumers.
However, physical buyers and already net-long funds remained persistent bidders of gold at the lower levels, limiting gold's downward momentum greatly.
As a result, Feb gold futures not only continued to hold above the psychologically significant $400 level for the eighth consecutive trading day but gained ground as the morning wore on despite the steady showing by the U.S. dollar.
"Gold is not seeing too much aggressive selling at the moment so is finding support, and as long as the U.S. dollar doesn't go too much higher I think the selling will stay pretty light," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank.
However, he allowed for a pickup in selling pressure before the week is through as the pressure for net-long funds to secure profits ahead of the yearend builds.
"We are expecting some profit taking from the funds at some point, as what are they going to do with all that gold?" he said.

Goldilox:

If the funds are smart, they'll bury it in the basement!
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 21:55:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113308)
Italian Food Giant on the Brink
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3310115.stmLast Updated: Thursday, 11 December, 2003, 18:09 GMT

Italian food giant on the brink

Shares in Italian food and drinks giant Parmalat have nearly halved after analysts said it was close to default. Parmalat's shares have been suspended since Monday, and when trading resumed they fell 47.4% to close at 1.18 euros on Thursday.

Credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Parmalat twice in the past two days, and now rates the company just above insolvency. Some investors hope that banks may be putting together a rescue deal.

Money Worries

Shares in Parmalat, one of Italy's best-known companies, have been under pressure for some time over concern about its adventurous investment policy.

Goldilox:

Don't let "adventurous investment policy" put you on the brink, 'cause there ain't any bank gonna bail you out.

Get gold, not paper!
Goldilox
(12/11/2003; 22:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113309)
Bill Gross' December comments
http://www.pimco.com/PIMCO_US.Site/Template/LateBreakingCommentary.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2fLeftNav%2fLate%2bBreaking%2bCommentary%2fIO%2f2003%2fio_dec03%2ehtm&NRNODEGUID=%7bC6270D9A-EF3B-4A98-A783-54488CD2637B%7d&NRCACHEHINT=GuestI wsn't able to cut and paste as it must be pure html or something. Anyway, he's quoting Einstein and Lennon and bad mouthing inflation with a parody -

"Imagine no inflation . . .
It's easy if you try".

I would add . .

"Nary a crash below us,
Above us only sky."

Anyway it was good reading.

Druid
(12/11/2003; 22:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113310)
(No Subject)
http://www.pimco.com/PIMCO_US.Site/Template/LateBreakingCommentary.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2fLeftNav%2fLate%2bBreaking%2bCommentary%2fIO%2f2003%2fio_dec03%2ehtm&NRNODEGUID=%7bC6270D9A-EF3B-4A98-A783-54488CD2637B%7d&NRCACHEHINT=GuestSnip.

"A human being is part of a whole, called by us the "Universe," a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest � a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.

Albert Einstein



I am he as you are he as you are me and we are all together�

I am the walrus, goo goo g�joob.

John Lennon





"I am becoming more Eastern in my thinking," I told a close friend during a recent private moment. He looked at me as if I had some explaining to do and that I better do it fast. If there were any gerbils associated with this story, his face seemed to say, then PIMCO had better be hiring an additional PR agent and definitely not Richard Gere's. Not to worry, I proceeded, this isn't a religious conversion or anything � more of a way at looking at life and my bit part in it, and I like some of the things that Eastern philosophies have to say. Not that you have to be Asian to say them. Albert Einstein, cited above, was anything but, and John Lennon was�well if not the walrus then�John Lennon. What they wrote though that appeals to me and resembles the philosophies of Confucius, Buddha, and Lao Tzu among others is their emphasis on egolessness � their attempt to cancel the screeching and often destructive noise of the "I." The ego and its need for recognition has always been an important part of my existence. "I'm not sure," my wife Sue remarked the other day, "where you and our kids got that �fame� gene. The roar of the crowd only lasts for a few seconds," she continued, "and then you've got to go back to living your everyday life. I get a bigger high just by buying a pair of shoes, and it lasts for months!" She has a point, some really nice shoes, and a wonderful perspective on other people and her place among them. My point though is not to eliminate the "I's" � there have already been eight in this Outlook's dialogue so far. There's no getting around the fact that we as individuals are part of this cosmos � if only for a short time. But it would be constructive, as Einstein suggested to extend the "I" beyond an inner circle, to acknowledge in our belief systems as well as our everyday behavior that we share this planet with other people and indeed all living things. When John Lennon sang, "I am the walrus," he meant, I think, that he shared the wonderful gift of life with them; that we were all part of the same play on the same giant stage. Oh how we all could benefit from that understanding. A little less "I" and a little more "we." Goo goo g�joob."

Druid: Here you go Sir Lox.

Black Blade
(12/11/2003; 23:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113311)
Natural gas surges on talk of new cold snap
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1069493871291&p=1012571727207
Snippit:

US natural gas futures prices increased rapidly on Wednesday amid forecasts for colder weather in the north-east US this weekend. The January Henry hub futures price was 62.8 cents higher at $7.35 per million British thermal units in late trade on Nymex in New York after earlier hitting a contract high of $7.55. Natural gas prices have been rising sharply in recent weeks as the US experienced its first snowfall and traders started forecasting shortages in coming months.

Black Blade: The EIA said that US storage had 111 bcf withdrawn last week. Another Artic Express is hitting the Midwest and the northeast this weekend. Although storage levels are rather high by historical standards, the production decline is steeper now as operating mature basins are depleting faster and a large-scale moratorium on drilling in Federal lands in the US remains in effect. The decline rate has apparently picked up to around 3-3.5% and imported LNG is not likely to have any effect on storage for several years (maybe 1% this year). Meanwhile NatGas demand has been increasing 5-10% year on year (even through last year's fairly mild winter and an economic recession resulting in manufacturing demand destruction). Usually Canada supplies about 15% of our NatGas supply, however in November Canadian supply to the US dropped 12% with predictions that Canada may barely cover a 4-5% contribution this year. If this winter is anything like last year or colder than normal we will run out of storage this time. Last year we began withdrawal season with all time high storage levels and a lot of Canadian contribution - not this year! We still ended the winter-spring heating season at all time low levels of NatGas in storage. Just consider this a "heads up" as heating season has just arrived and hit stronger than predicted. Still, there is no "energy policy" in the US as Dem Senators threatened to filibuster the bill (falling 2 votes short to prevent a filibuster), so it has been shelved. We will experience several sharp price hikes this winter, so if you live in one of the few areas where you can lock in pricing this winter � then do it! If not, buy some extra blankets, space heaters, and winterize your homes. The poor and elderly on fixed income can only pray if no taxpayer-funded assistance is available. I suspect that it is possible that there could be a collection of some "corpse-sickles" in the coldest regions late this winter. Be sure to thank your local Sierra Club and Green Peace friends.

Black Blade
(12/11/2003; 23:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113312)
OPEC may trade oil in euros to compensate for dollar decline
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_490084,00020008.htm
Snippit:

OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva said the organisation is considering trading oil in euros to compensate for the US dollar's decline in value. Another alternative is to trade in a basket of currencies other than the greenback, Silva told Venezuela's state news agency, Venpres. "There is a talk of trading crude in euros. It is one of the alternatives," the former Venezuelan oil minister said from Vienna late on Monday. "It is possible that the organisation will discuss that, and make a decision at some point in time," he said. Silva did not provide more details.

Black Blade: Old news but worth keeping in mind. Meanwhile WTI crude is bouncing around $32/bbl on inventory decline and IEA report of increasing demand from China and other developing nations. Oh yeah, a lot of Irai oil is being pumped but reinjected fue to limited pipeline capacity as yet another pipeline was blown up yesterday (one or two a week at the current rate).


Gandalf the White
(12/12/2003; 00:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113313)
Sir Goldendome's QUESTION !
Goldendome (12/11/03; 19:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 113299)
< snip>
Sir Gandolf: Can I start to use my word?
---
As soon as it appears in my WEBSTER'S DICTIONARY !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/12/2003; 00:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113314)
LURKERS --- Did you see this ? <;-)
MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"
===
NOTICE to ALL LURKERS (old and new) !
---
A FREE early Christmas present !!!!
It will pay you to go to YESTERDAY's ARCHIVES and read the above Message from SIR M. K. !!
<;-)
Operative
(12/12/2003; 00:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113315)
2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031211/nyth120_1.html2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast

Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET
NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.
The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.
The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year."

comment: Phew! Boy am I glad to hear this. I was getting concerned about next year, I feel soooo much better now.
Usul
(12/12/2003; 01:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113316)
Fonts
http://psychology.wichita.edu/optimalweb/print.htmDavid Ambrosini
( http://www.cabrillo.cc.ca.us/~dambrosini/189Web/design.html )

says that "In print, the rule of thumb is serif for text and san serif for headlines... but: "In screen media, the rule of thumb is san serif for text and serif for headlines, the opposite of ou rule for print". Personally, I prefer it the first way.

Michael Bernard of the Wichita State University Psychology Department says there is "some evidence that suggest that some serif fonts promote better comprehension than some sans serif fonts" - Tahoma and Times 12 point fonts gave the fastest reading times.

Usul
(12/12/2003; 01:20:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113317)
It's only just begun...
http://www.finance24.co.za/Finance/Columns/0,,1518-1522_1458765,00.htmlNo, not the Carpenters, that's "We've only just begun".

Dollar decline to boost gold

"It's only just begun. The decline in the dollar that is..."

Usul
(12/12/2003; 01:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113318)
A golden wall of worry
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9043F86E-5181-4407-BB89-475522164BCE%7D&siteid=nibiru&dist=annunaki"The gold timers I track at the Hulbert Financial Digest are not behaving the way they normally do. And that's bullish for gold..."

Usul
(12/12/2003; 01:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113319)
Gold May Extend Rally as Haven From Dollar, Terrorism
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a4_A_7Q47phI&refer=britney_spears"Having a position in gold gives you protection in a difficult financial period," said John Hathaway, who this year added bullion to the $750 million in gold-related funds he manages at Tocqueville Asset Management LP in New York. "It's like taking out insurance."...

"Investment demand for gold surged by 151 tons, or more than fourfold, in the third quarter from the second, according to Gold Fields Minerals Services Ltd..."
Usul
(12/12/2003; 01:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113320)
Consider guarding against dollar falling even further
http://www.suntimes.com/output/savage/cst-fin-terry114.html"The United States desperately needs the world to believe the dollar has value. Otherwise, foreigners won't want the dollars we send when we buy imported goods from China and Asia and Europe. If the dollar is losing value, the Chinese central bank, which owns hundreds of billions of dollars -- all invested in Treasury securities -- might just decide to switch to gold or euros.

And eventually the only way to get them to hold dollars is to pay them a bribe -- higher interest rates on our Treasury debt they hold. You can figure out how higher interest rates would affect your personal finances -- from mortgage payments to credit card debt..."
Belgian
(12/12/2003; 02:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113321)
Gold for Oil....
Russia is copying the Arabian Oil for Gold - concept. Geo-political realities (present and evolving) are speeding up the materialization of the ideas.
Mr Gresham
(12/12/2003; 02:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113322)
Ten Bears
As always, there is iron in your words. You have surpassed yourself in what you brought us this time. All this just off the top of your head? Da Man!

Bulldog: I think what amazes me is making the side-by-side contrast of decent people living in tyrannical systems like Nazi Germany, trying to get by, noticing less than the full picture; decent people living without a Constitution as in Britain, noticing as little; and decent people living under a Constitution in constant violation as in the U.S., observing little and caring less. (Just ask Ten Bears what 400+ broken treaties internally means for our Constitutional integrity.)

Humans seem unable to act appropriately, in ANY of several contrasting political situations, even when opportunity is presented them, and it is relatively safe to act.

It just seems like, to the boys at the top, it's all just held up like the Wizard's curtain, for us who believe in rules and fairness and keeping your word to be taken in by, and keep on producing for them.

Guantanamo? I thought that one was funny. Didn't hear 'bout no Talibans flying jets into WTC. We didn't run into them until we invaded their country (many were outsiders there, though, I hear). They may have hidden or helped OBL locally, but they were more defenders than terrorists if they crossed no borders. I guess they were just "resisting arrest", eh?

One I've wondered about is civil forfeitures. We are Constitutional toast over that one. Your house or car is suspected of involvement in a crime. Gone! Can even exceed any fine that would have been imposed upon conviction. We even have a phrase "due process" that seems to be in reversal on this one.

And that 2000 election. Hanging chads? Geo. Washington saith "Sheesh! My guys froze in the snow -- for THIS?"

It just seems the cons are pushing the people to see what they can get away with, and no one's pushing back. So they keep adding new crazy stuff. I mean, it's getting to look like some character getting slapped around in a Warner Brothers cartoon, J6P is looking so dumbass.

I tell ya -- and we goldhearts are sitting at the crux of this one almost NO ONE else sees -- the use of fiat money (under the Fed's delicate management these 80 years) has upturned a normal daily understanding of value -- of labor, and of saving, of exchange, and of permanence -- and undermined a lot of other areas in life by this. People have been grazing on crazy weed in the monetary realm all these years, and the baseless nature of it is coming home to roost in manic, destructive behavior.

Of course the first step to ending a con is to admit you've been taken. And that's the hardest.
mas
(12/12/2003; 04:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113323)
Mr Gresham well said!
And that's what it's all about, ain't it? Can't add more.
Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 05:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 113324)
Federal Reserve Party?
We need a viable third party candidate to challenge the wholly corrupted Dems and Republicans. What about a Fed party with Sir Alan its standard bearer and candidate for 2004?

The bankers run the country anyway through their proxy politicians on both sides of the aisle. Why not cut out these greedy and unreliable middlemen and have the bankers take the reins?

I can see it now. Campaign literature will be in the form of new Federal Reserve notes with AG's picture that become the currency of the land upon the installation of the Fed party candidate. The slogan is "Financial utopia forever" and "No pot unfilled". The people will love it. They will vote their pocketbooks. AG will RULE!!

Boilermaker
PS; You might want to back up those new notes with some nasty old gold.
Druid
(12/12/2003; 06:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113325)
Mr Gresham (12/12/03; 02:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 113322)

"Of course the first step to ending a con is to admit you've been taken. And that's the hardest."

Druid: Oh! Mr. Gresham, you are on such a "truthful" roll, please do continue. The illusion of fiat over such a very long time has created the delusion of self-importance and total and complete competence by the home team. Who! Me taken? No way, no how Sir, I! KNOW! What "money" is. My personal epiphany and realization came about some four and half years ago when I took a few thousand "dollars" out of my plan at work to do a little "speculating" because I too was a "master" and could in my own personal way tame this market of stocks.

What took me a little over two years to "save" I was able to reduce down close to zero in about two months. I remember thinking to myself, this wasn't supposed to happen, don't stocks go up all the time? I stopped all trading and began reading but this time I was reading material I never came across. Thank you Wall Street Underground, you started me on the "righteous" path to gaining wisdom and knowledge. At the same time, I stumbled on to this site and lurked, I believe, for a little over a year as I "walked the trail" several times before commenting (my own personal choice). My first reading of all trail material provided the logic I needed to make some big changes in a lot of ways, not just my perception of what "money" is and isn't, but many things. MK and group KNOW, BOY! DO THEY KNOW what they are sitting on in terms of a real time archive documenting the great change that is transpiring before us and the understanding of that change. I certainly wonder off to read other materials but ALWAYS return here because of the "goldmine" of knowledge and understanding that I come across on a daily basis. This isn't by any means set in stone but people tend to make decisions based on trust and credibility more so then substance and common sense. In an effort to try and inform the masses, breaking through the barrier of entrenched myths is our greatest challenge.
Clink!
(12/12/2003; 07:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113326)
Some interesting posts in the last 24 hours
@ Ten Bears : I liked your quotations - the Hemmingway is now pinned to the wall of my work cube. On the outside wall - I'm going fishing !

@ Mr Gresham : You said :-
It just seems the cons are pushing the people to see what they can get away with, and no one's pushing back. So they keep adding new crazy stuff.

C! That's exactly the same kind of thought I had this week when it was announced that none of the weasels would be allowed to bid on Iraq rebuilding contracts (despite holding massive debts of the regime deposed by the willing). The problem is that while this plays well to a largely disinterested (and uninterested ?) domestic population - the one that can re-elect a President - it gives many other people, particularly those in countries that don't spend 5% of their GDP on arms, the distinct impression that it might be safer for everyone if the US became insolvent before any more damage is done.
What do you do if the biggest guy in a lifeboat gets roaring drunk and starts jumping all over the place, rocking the boat dangerously, stepping on toes ? You edge him slowly to the side so that, at just the right moment of the boat's roll, a teeny tiny push will push him overboard.
Clink!
(12/12/2003; 07:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113327)
@Boilermaker
I've just finished listening to Michael Moore's 'Dude, where's my country'. In the last chapter, he discusses how to get rid of GWB at the next election. After describing the fatal weaknesses of the current Democrat opposition, he then goes on to name one person who would win by a landslide - Oprah ! I thought he was being funny at first, but when he said he wasn't, I had to stop and admit that he might have a point. The trouble is, she apparently has already said 'Never'.
C!
admin
(12/12/2003; 08:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113330)
Politics
Let's work on keeping the politics off the forum. We don't mind thoughtful, sound social commentary directed at the big picture, but when this turns into an echo of the Rush Limbaugh and/or Larry King shows, i.e., party politics in extremis (or I never met Republican I didn't like, or it's rejoinder: I never a Democrat I didn't like), it's a turnoff. I think most of you know the difference, if you don't we'll differentiate for you. We've pulled alot of posts lately, and we'll pull more. Somehow the message just doesn't seem to register until we post something direct -- like this. The next thing to go will be posting privileges. We're coming onto an election year and we don't want this forum to become just another three-ring political circus. This site is dedicated to gold and economics as it relates to gold. Let's keep it that way.

And one more thing, this is not a tout board for your favorite gold stock. These seem to show up with more frequency in a rising market. The quickest way to be shown the door is to put up some thinly disguised
promo like the one we just took off the board

So no party politics.
No gold stock touts.
And goodbye, Mr. Nakajima. The implied warning seemed to have no effect.

All: We're asking for your help with this.

Thanks.

The management.

Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 08:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113331)
Clink
I like Oprah too. She's got enough money so she can't be bought and popularity so she wouldn't need to curry favors from political hacks. All she needs is a golden platform.
Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 08:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113332)
Admin
Sorry for the politics. No more from me.
Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 08:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113333)
Economic Rebound?
Reuters
Consumer Sentiment Stumbles in December
Friday December 12, 10:00 am ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers turned gloomier about the economy through mid-December even as the labor market shows some improvement and stocks have steadily risen, market sources said on Friday.
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment fell to 89.6 in December from November's final reading of 93.7, according to market sources who have seen the report. Economists had forecast a rise to 96.0.

The unexpected decline threw doubt on consumer spending during the holiday season, though measures of confidence have had little link to actual retail sales in recent years.

The current conditions index fell sharply, to 93.6 from 102.5 the prior month, while the expectations index slide to 87.1 from a final reading of 88.1 in November.


comment
It's going to be tough holding the Stock Market and US$ up today while keeping a lid on gold.
Boilermaker
commish
(12/12/2003; 08:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113334)
I Must Be Insane
Picked up (10) MS61 10 dollar Gold coins. Paid 2% over wholesale. Did it with a 0% interest card card (thank you CitiBank). The credit card costs were waived (Christmas present from my dealer). Hope this good cheer lasts thru this election year. "Get your money for nothing and your chicks for free."
Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 08:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113335)
Christmas dream?
@commish

Don't pinch yourself. What are MS61s?
commish
(12/12/2003; 09:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113336)
Mint State Coins
As opposed to regular bullion coins these coins are graded by quality. The grading system runs from from MS60-MS70 for uncirculated coins. A MS60 might have a few spots and nicks and a MS70 is in perfect condition. Each coin is in a plastic case and is known as a collectable. The $10 gold coins are 1/2 ounce of gold and were minted in the late 1800'S. Only about 25,000 of these rascals are around. Hope that helps.
Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 09:22:29 MDT - Msg ID: 113337)
I stand corrected
I am certainly not blameless in the political arena either. Though I have not yet been deleted, I'm sure the censor's eye has found concern in some of my posts. I will endeavor to tighten focus.

Last evening I remarked that the financial press completely ignores any economic bear opinions. I just saw a bull/bear debate on Bloomberg that included representatives from DeutcheBank and ElliottWave.com. Too bad Bloomberg goes off the air at 8AM here, switching to the USA movie network, as I doubt that interchange would make the cut on CNBC.

My reaction oscillates between relief that both sides are getting press and concern about why now?

Is Bloomberg much more democratic than I'm used to, or are we slowly being prepped for BearMkt phase II.

1) Gold quotes are now being posted right along with RT market and finance graphics
2) Gold news stories seem to be much more regular, even on CNBC.
3) Bears are getting some airtime, mostly to talk about global finance issues, as their crash predictions still get laughed off the air.

If I believe folks like Jim Sinclair, David Tice, et al, the paper markets are teetering on implosion; BB says energy stockpiles are depleted beyond safe margins; MK says margins on bullion are
increasing. So many signals point to a "tough row to hoe" moving forward.

Got gold?
MK
(12/12/2003; 09:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113339)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

What Me Worry?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/12/2003; 10:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113340)
Build your financial base
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Bullion
Mr Gresham
(12/12/2003; 10:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113342)
Clink!
Lifeboat -- good one! Should we rename you "Splash!"?

Druid: Didn't the ancient ones have the magical power to cast a fog over their opponents? Seems like that's what's been done here, but it's over the people, and they don't know how to break the spell. Thanks.
steady
(12/12/2003; 10:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113343)
admin privleges
admin way to go.
i have had numerous posts deleted but so what its your form, thanks for having it and thanks for moderatring it, i just hope i post stuff that dont get deleted. if it does oh well it aint like its the end of the world or something.
Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 10:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113344)
Debt Math
The US Treasury is accumulating debt at a rate of more than $2 billion per calendar day or about $7/day for each of us in the US. This is our nest eggs, retirement funds, children's education, and ultimately our freedom. The debt will not be paid back in kind but will be demolished through the destruction of our financial assets. The fiscal stimulus is providing some near term relief but at a huge cost to our future. 99% of Americans are oblivious to the process underway. There are very few asset classes that will survive the flushing of the financial toilet. Precious metals and natural resources will survive.

Boilermaker
CoBra(too)
(12/12/2003; 10:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113345)
What Me Worry?
Exceptional reasoning pointed out in MK's News and Views!

Yes, what me worry, even if I'm from the EU, where the infant gold bull has not been as pronounced as vis a vis to the US dollar.

As I don't know, where and when the trigger to competitive devaluations will be pulled, but pulled it will. Let's watch the BOJ and in particular the actions of the Chinese together, no?

Meantime, there's no better way to protect your financial survival than going gold ... cb2



Clink!
(12/12/2003; 10:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113346)
Got the message about party politics, Sir Admin.
I'll suggest another title this time :- The Soul of Capitalism by William Greider. NO, NO ! DON'T CUT ME OFF ! IT'S NOT ABOUT RELIGION ! Phew ! The basic premise is that the fundamental driver of capitalism is to create a machine for the efficient deployment of capital and resources. This worked fine when there were real improvements in the quality of life, but what happens when there is more than enough of everything (like how much more food can you eat, when will they get to the 18-wheeler SUV, can you really use more bathrooms than people in a house, etc), and increasing the rhythm of the machine starts to have seriously deleterious effects on non-economic aspects of society, such as pollution, family life, obeisity, etc. How do you slow the machine down without breaking it ? This is particularly interesting at a time when there are visible signs of external pressures which might force the same thing via decrease of the purchasing power of the dollar and exportation of jobs to lower cost countries. Will this be the challenge of the fourth turning crisis ?

Fascinating stuff.
C!
Clink!
(12/12/2003; 10:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113348)
The Spend-like-drunken-sailors award
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={83656DED-98CE-4BC5-818D-855A9F228CAE}Good Grief, Black Blade ! Not only is this Robert Folsom guy using your by-line, but the text looks like a cut-and-paste from your postings over the last year ! There's an interesting line at the end of the article :-

Real drunken sailors don't think about details either, but at least they only spend their own money.


Mr Gresham : Glad you like the image. I have just realized what put the idea in my head in the first place !

C!
Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 11:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113349)
Newmont asked to disclose environmental policies to shareholders
Comtex Business WireNewmont Mining Faces Significant Potential Liabilities in its Mining Operations: Investors Call on Gold Company to Disclose and Address Environmental and Social Liabilities

December 12, 2003 12:52:00 (ET)

snip:

BOSTON, Dec 12, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- This week, investment company Boston Common Asset Management filed a shareholder resolution with Newmont Mining Corporation, the world's largest gold-mining firm, calling on the company to prepare a report on the risk to the company's operations, profitability and reputation from its social and environmental liabilities.

The company, which has mining operations in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Central Asia and the US, has been dogged by allegations that its mines in these countries are polluting local waterways and are harming the health of nearby communities. Some local communities have protested the company's planned operations in environmentally and culturally sensitive areas. The firm is currently under investigation by the US Department of Justice over accusations that it bribed officials in Peru to gain ownership of its highly-profitable Yanacocha mine.

To address the problems that underlie these potential liabilities, Boston Common is also requesting that Newmont Mining develop policies on operating in protected areas, provide sufficient funds for long-term environmental clean-up, and provide full disclosure of the company's impact on the environment, labor and human rights. Boston Common filed the resolution on behalf of its client, The Brethren Benefit Trust, Inc. (BBT), which is the financial arm of the Church of the Brethren. BBT holds approximately 3,100 shares of Newmont Mining Corporation common stock.

With its recent acquisitions and global expansion, Newmont Mining has become increasingly exposed to risk to the company's operations, profitability and reputation from its social and environmental liabilities. These liabilities, including environmental clean-up costs, compensation to displaced or otherwise aggrieved local communities and related legal expenses, may total hundreds of millions of dollars, thus representing a significant cost to the company.

Lauren Compere of Boston Common Asset Management remarked, "Newmont Mining senior executives purport to be committed to sustainable development and but we continue to have concerns as investors that the company is not fully disclosing its social and environmental liabilities. We feel that Newmont Mining needs to disclose not only its potential liabilities but also what policies the company will put in place to avoid those costs in the future."

Goldilox:

Environmental issues are normal in extraction of resources, as treatment and restoration definitely add to costs of extraction. Unlike forestry, the issue in mining is not about renewing the resource, but more often leaving the surroundings and water resources inhabitable. Investors are asking to be informed of Newmont's risks and the potential effects on cost projections.

These questions invariably affect the supply chain in costs and scheduling.
Zhisheng
(12/12/2003; 11:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113350)
Up into the Close!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Good close on the week: $409.

Another take-down attempt failed.
Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 11:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113351)
Response from GG about special dividend
I received an email from Rob McKuen of GoldCorp in thanks for the suggestion of paying dividends in physical instead of fiat. I bet a lot of shareholders made similar suggestions, probably quite a few inspired on this forum. The response indicated that GG was investigating methodology for potential implemention.

Perhaps MK will get a call to participate in some physical trade scheme. It would be smart of GG to involve an experienced retailer rather than ramp up some internal effort. Who knows?
It's an indication, however, that the participants on this forum are being heard throughout the gold community. CPM can be proud of that, and hopefully the advertising value is being felt, as well.

slingshot
(12/12/2003; 11:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113352)
Christmas Jingle
You better not scoff.
You better not cry.
The economys great,I'm telling you why.
Alan Greenspan, coming to town.

He knows you have been spending.
He knows the interest rate.
He knows their is equity in your home.
But a Ford for goodness sake.

Well, you better not scoff.
And you better not cry.
USAGOLD, has a really good buy.
Hey Alan won't you give them a try.


Great to be a GOLDBUG.

Slingshot--------------<>
mikal
(12/12/2003; 12:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 113353)
@Goldilox
Re: "...treatment and restoration definately add to costs of extraction." Good points. Besides environmental, the ENERGY costs and availability in mining operations can make or break a mine. We can see the energy complex is still rising. Black Blade has pointed out that power can even be rationed in a region where politically favored cities or towns require a guaranteed steady supply.
Rimh
(12/12/2003; 12:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113354)
Re: Newmont environmental policies
The timing on this particular set of allegations seems curiously like an attempt to discredit the most senior gold producer just as the gold price is appreciating. I'm sure Newmont will comply by providing information on all it's environmental policies in the various countries it operates. Newmont, as a major company, knows it can be a target for these kinds of allegations and has probably worked hard to establish safe and reasonable environmental practices. I don't know any of the details of the allegations, so they may have some merit, but this smells like a smear campaign to me.

Just my ramblings on the news...

Rimh
DryWasher
(12/12/2003; 13:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113355)
Dr. Ron Paul tells it like it is:
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/welcome.htm
The following is a reproduction of the December 8, 2003 column taken from "Project FREEDOM, Website of US Representative Ron Paul." as allowed by by the rules listed on the website.
DryWasher.

The Disappearing Dollar

Those who follow financial markets may be familiar with the term "strong-dollar policy," which is used by Bush administration officials and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan himself. One might assume that such a policy entailed a course of action designed to strengthen the value of the U.S. dollar. However, if we judge Fed policy by Mr. Greenspan's actions rather than his words, it appears we have a weak-dollar policy, a policy that erodes the value of your personal savings. The "strong-dollar policy" is nothing more than an empty political slogan.

The inescapable truth is that the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen over 30% in the past year, which to most people would not seem indicative of strength. There are several reasons for this decline, but the single biggest factor has been Mr. Greenspan's relentless increase of the money supply. There are roughly sixteen trillion dollars in worldwide use today, five trillion more than when Greenspan became Fed chair. The law of supply is immutable: When dollars are abundant they are also cheap.

For much of our history a gold standard imposed discipline on U.S. dollar policy, since every dollar printed theoretically was redeemable in gold. Since the last links between the dollar and gold were severed in 1971, the dollar essentially has operated as an article of faith. Christopher Mayer, writing for the Ludwig von Mises Institute, states: "Faith that paper money itself was of any lasting value would have struck our forebears as patently absurd."

The problem is that faith can be shaken, and the precipitous drop in the dollar shows how investors around the globe are very concerned about American deficits and debt. When government policies in a fiat system are the sole measure of a currency's worth, the currency markets act as a reliable barometer of how those policies are viewed around the world. Politicians often manage to fool voters and the media, but they rarely fool the financial markets over time. When investors lack faith in the U.S. dollar, they really lack faith in the economic policies of the U.S. government. The Medicare prescription drug bill passed two weeks ago provides an example of this phenomenon- the day after the bill passed, the dollar dropped once again. Investors understand that the new entitlement will cost trillions over coming decades, trillions that will come from Treasury printing presses and further devalue existing dollars.

Ultra-cautious investor Warren Buffett is trading heavily in foreign currencies for the first time, demonstrating his lack of faith in the dollar. His predicament is simple: He holds billions of dollars, and cannot afford to sit by and watch the value of those dollars drop another 30%. By taking a position against the U.S. dollar, his actions speak volumes.

Unlike Warren Buffett, most Americans are stuck with their U.S. dollars. Average people, particularly those who depend on savings or fixed incomes to fund their retirement years, cannot abide the continued devaluation of our currency. A true strong-dollar policy would require constriction of the money supply and higher interest rates, both of which would cause some short-term pain for the American economy. In the long run, however, such a correction is the only alternative to the continued erosion of our dollars.
Buongiorno!
(12/12/2003; 13:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113356)
CRB Index break-out
Catch the CRB at over 260--last twenty-year chart I saw would indicate a reversal of that long, long downtrend right about here. 265 for sure, depending upon how sharp your pencil is when you draw the line.

Tally-ho! The fox is on the run and the chase begins! (I think)
Buongiorno!
Strad Master
(12/12/2003; 14:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113357)
Leigh: Thoughts on the Stradivarius article
I don't always get to read the Forum these days as much as I'd like so I missed your kind posting of that article about Strad. Fortunately, I was talking to M.K. today and he mentioned it so I went to look it up. Someone had already e-mailed me a synopsis of it but it was nice to get to read all the details.

That's an interesting theory about Strad's violins although I'm not entirely sure that I buy it. (In my time I've heard a lot of plausible theories as well as some that aren't even rational.) I think the last paragraph sums it up best in saying that Strad was great because of a whole constellation of factors. He was extraordinarily wealthy during his life (It was a common saying during that time to describe a very wealthy person by saying; "He's as wealthy as a Stradivari!") so he was able to purchase the very finest of raw materials. The woods and varnishes were the absolute best so that, in conjunction with his extraordinary skill in all areas of violin making made his violins the prized masterpieces we have today. (I feel particularly blessed to be the caretaker of mine. In a recent test I got to put it up against an early, a "Golden" and another late period Strad (Mine is from 1728) and mine beat them all hands down for tone quality.)

As to the theory of the wood coming from trees that were grown in extra cold weather, the dates don't seem to line up well enough. According to the article the coldest period was between 1645 and 1715 while Strad's "Golden Period" was between 1700 and 1720. I was always led to believe that Strad used woods that in his day were already old - some as much as 200 years. If that is the case, as i believe it is, then those woods significantly pre-date the "cold" growing period. Even if he got wood that came from that cold growing era he still would have had to let it season for several years before he used it. There is no way he would have used freshly cut wood since it is simply too full of moisture to be any good. As an intersting sidebar, I have an amazing "bench copy" of my Strad that was made about 6 years ago. It looks in every respect just like the original - the varnish is perfectly copied and every scratch and mark is the same on both instruments. They are very difficult to tell apart and I've made some big-time experts "sweat bullets" trying to figure out which was which. One of the big giveaways is the fact that the real Strad (while it has the same amount of wood) is discernably lighter due to the evaporation of moisture. For those of you who are going to ask - no, thy don't sound the same, although the copy is a magnificent concert-level instrument and I've even made recording with it. I tend to take the copy with me on any long journeys since it is far cheaper to insure and unless you play them back to back nobody knows the difference. If anyone is interested, I'll try to post a few nice photos I have of my Strad, although I've had lots of dificulty in the past with posting pictures.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I'll try to keep a closer eye on this forum so as not to miss any positngs directed at me in the future.
Agingfast
(12/12/2003; 15:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113358)
Mr Gresham - re: "magical power to cast a fog over their opponents"
That was The Shadow - equipped with the power to cloud men's minds - he's been splitting his time between Washington and Wall Street in recent years.
Boilermaker
(12/12/2003; 15:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113359)
Strad Master
That was a wonderful post. You can be confident your instrument will keep its value like gold. My mother was a violinist, trained at Juilliard, who played well into her 80's. She played and performed all her life but never went professional. She (and I) loved the "Messiah" and other Christmas music.
CoBra(too)
(12/12/2003; 16:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113360)
@ Strad - Giacomo ANTONIO Stradivari, scholar of N. Amati,
... and his sons never lifted the secret of the special sound due to the specific woods they've used. As I understand, most of the 600 violins have been adapted in the late 1800's for more intense volume.

I'd bet your's is an original, almost never to be found again - a Stradivari - even better than gold!

I'm happy to report that this year's Vienna New Years concert with its philharmonic orchestra will again be conducted by Muti - and long forgotten Strauss et al compositions will be included.

Looking forward to this "golden" event and kind regards -cb2.
specie-man
(12/12/2003; 16:51:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113361)
The Great NICKEL Coin Melt
http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2003/12/11/rtr1177297.htmlMany of us, I'm sure, remember the great silver coin melts in history (especially in the late '70s).

Now it seems China is scooping up obsolete nickel coins from around the globe and melting them for use as a raw material.

In 1933, gold coins were disappearing from circulation.
In 1969, silver coins were disappearing from circulation.

Extrapolation:
In 2005, nickel coins start disappearing from circulation.

The 1933 and 1969 dates are based upon the last years that coins containing gold or silver were released into circulation by the US Treasury.

Notice the 36 year intervals (1933-1969 and 1969-2005).

Imagine if the dollar "problem" got so bad that people would "cash out" their dollars for anything that they could get their hands on. In that type of scenario, I could see all copper/nickel coins dissapear as fast as the silver coins did. Could 2005 be the last year that the US issues coins with a copper/nickel content ? That may be a bit far-fetched, but not an impossible scenario. In 1982, the US changed the one-cent coin from a solid bronze (copper) composition to a copper-plated zinc planchet. That change was made partly due to the increasing price of copper at the time.

Don't look now, but the US 5-cent coin could be the first to go. The last time I checked, $5 face value in US nickels was approaching $2 in melt value. That might sound like a high "markup" (face value above melt). But I bet it is approacing the Treasury's discomfort zone. They are, of course, accustomed to much higher percentage markups.

Also note that throughout history, once a metal is deemed "too valuable" for use in coinage and is withdrawn from circulation, it never again appears in circulating coins.

I'm somewhat of a silver buff. I hear "old timers" say 'silver is as common as dirt - it will never be worth more than xxx'. In a few years, maybe I'll be telling some young dude: 'nickel is as common as dirt - it will never be worth more than xxx'.

PS:
A US Jefferson nickel is actually 75% copper and 25% nickel, by weight. Each coin weighs a total of 5 grams. that composition has not changed since the nickel 5-cent coin was first introduced in 1866 (except a brief period during WWII when nickels contained copper, silver, and manganese, but no nickel - that was needed for the war).

So $5 in nickels contains 375 grams of copper and 125 grams of nickel. 375 grams is almost exactly one pound. With copper at 98.8 cents per pound, the total value of the copper is about 99 cents. 125 grams is about a third of a pound. With nickel at $2.65 per pound, the total value of the nickel is about 88 cents. $1.87 combined.

My apologies to any "old timers" here.

Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 16:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113362)
It's Your Money
CNBC's "It's Your Money" round table argued gold as an investment today, with Becky Quick and two Wall St hucksters. Becky and one of the hucksters agreed that gold had "finished it's run" and the smart money is leaving. The huckster even had the stupidity to suggest that the dollar decline is done! The other huckster said he liked Anglo because of the "safety" of their hedging practice and recommended option plays on the volatility.

It's interesting to see gold interest get more airtime, but I am so relieved to see that the mainstream still does not "get it"! None of them will be dining at this forum's table this holday season.

Who needs Comedy TV with these clowns on the air? A positive indicator like that tells me to CONTINUE accumulating gold and silver.
Federal_Reserves
(12/12/2003; 16:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113363)
GDP up 8.2% whereas Money Supply Growth down 8.2%
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf
Yes, thats right. The money supply is tanking while the growth rate of GDP is skyrocketing and the stock market reaches new highs.

What's wrong with this picture?

Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 17:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113364)
Nickle coin melts
@ specie-man:

The exploding value of metals probably endangers all coinage. (Hyper) Inflation may just guarantee that action. At some point, the business community will emulate the IRS and round everything off to the nearest dollar, as fractions will not be worth the effort of handling and making change.

Imagine - no more $19.95 prices when they really mean $20.

"Imagine there's inflation,
It's easy if you try . . . " - Bill Gross
specie-man
(12/12/2003; 17:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113365)
CORRECTION - The Great NICKEL Coin Melt
I was using Tin prices, not Nickel prices - duh.

Nickel currently lists at $6.13 per pound (up 10 cents a pound today !).

So $5 in US nickels are acutually worth over $3 ($3.03, to be exact).

So the melt value is a lot closer to the face value than I thought !

PS:
Nickel is also, technically, a platinum-group metal.
If the melt value goes over $4.00 for $5 in nickels, maybe I'll start hoarding some.


Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 17:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 113366)
Nickle coin melts
Coin Collectors take notice - your collection values should skyrocket if this becomes widespread!!

. . . sort of like $20 gold pieces worth over $400

(:^) Goldilox

P.S. Since books are going electronic and contracts can be so easily broken, there is only one sure use left for paper!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/12/2003; 17:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113367)
Countdown refinement. December 17th is the deadline to get Christmas orders in to Marie by 3:30pm MST.
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/

 
 
Time flies like the wind!
Fruit flies like bananas.

 
usagold gold jewelry

6 days and counting down...

place your jewelry order for on-time Christmas delivery

Christmas jewelry delivery
 

Solomon Weaver
(12/12/2003; 17:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113368)
Dear President Bush
Dear President Bush,

As an American, I am proud to have been born in, and to earn my way in the country which has defined the global social, political, and economic realm throughout the world since the end of WWII.

American served as a great and resourceful nation to the allied forces in WWII, who overcame the evil schemes of facists, and even converted these same facist nations back to two of the strongest economies in the world....all of us joining forces to provide a context which allowed the capitalist and free economies of the world to outpace the communist world.

Many of us are aware that the decision of former President Nixon to take the dollar off a gold standard in 1971 (essentially ending the Bretton Woods Agreement), was an expedient move to preserve the status of the dollar, and probably even was justified with a world at "cold war". At the same time, with the dollar as the "new standard" it also gave the US Government a very important responsibility.

As you may well understand, gold, which once served as an important financial reserve asset for any nation participating in global trade, has now diminished in status, having been primarily supplanted by "issued monies" and primarily dollars. At the same time, gold has not lost its importance, and any simple analysis will show that gold as a financial asset, still trades in this world as if it were a currency.

Even as proud as I may be to be an American, I must admit that the rapid escallation in the amount of dollar debt and dollar issued in the last ten years is shocking and disturbing. Understanably started by President Clinton, but not stopped by your administration, and particulary facilitated by the artificially low interest rates which you have allowed the US Federal Reserve to set during your administration, have now led to a terrible crisis which many Americans don't really understand.

Specifically, the virtue of any productive citizen to save capital, and to provide that capital (through lending banks) to its own nation for the purpose of business investment, has been severely dis-incentivized. As a matter of fact, since the rest of the world has eagerly been sending their very own savings back to the USA, the average American (and American Business, and local, state, and federal government) have been encouraged to borrow instead of save.

So, now, as an American who does save, I find I am so poorly rewarded for my willingness to keep my savings in the bank. I am now witnessing a large and ongoing loss in the trading value of the dollar in most other international currencies, combined with many hidden inflationary effects in assets which are somehow filtered out of the CPI. I have done all I can to get family out of any debt, so that I may remain a strong and productive citizen, but in protection of may savings, I have over the recent years been forced to consider owning other currencies.

As a patriot, do you expect me to use my savings to buy and hold Euros or Yen? The only real option remaining is to invest in gold and silver. Under the new politic which is now being defined by the large reorganisation of the government to create a Homeland Security Department, and to grant that department access to many details of citizens financial holdings and transactions, it is now being proposed that all trade in tangibles such as jewelry and precious metals must be documented. Austensibly, this is to prevent the use of these tangible items by terrorists for the purposes of illicit financings.

Most Americans will understand that: "dogs have 4 legs, cats have 4 legs, therefore, dogs are cats" is an incorrect statement....because it uses true facts, but false logic. But, by passage of sweeping acts of disclosure on ownership of gold and silver we run into a very serious problem of: "terrorists pay with gold, John Q pays with gold, therefore, John Q is a terrorist".

To the contrary, many of the staunchest and most patriotic Americans have never lost the understanding that owning some gold was good for hard times...and many of the same citizens are increasing their gold holdings...as they see hard times coming, and they want to remain as independantly strong citizens.

As you soon consider whether you will pass this bill, I am not even certain that I would sway you either way...more importantly, I believe that you should insist that the bill should be modified to strongly proclaim to all US citizens that tangible assets such as precious metals, which can be shown to have been purchased with honest savings, are a protected hallmark of the American Financial Structure....and that the Federal Government will defend the constitutional right of all citizens to save assets of these kind.

Thank you,

Poor old Solomon
specie-man
(12/12/2003; 18:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113369)
One More Time - nickel coin values
Ok, apparently, the industrial metals (futures) prices are in Avoirdupois pounds and not Troy pounds. I used 373 grams per pound but it should be 454 grams per pound.

So the true current melt value of $5 in nickels is $2.50 .


Goldendome
(12/12/2003; 19:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113370)
(No Subject)

Gold Silver Ratio 73.291 + .463 12-12-03
Smeagol
(12/12/2003; 19:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113371)
Gold:Silver ratio?
Eh? We have seen this ratio here and there, in our sneakings on the great Web. Some use this as a lever to increase their Metal holdings, by buying Silver when the ratio iss high, as it is now, and then trade that for It, when the ratio drops, and then trade It back for Silver when the ratio goes up again, all over time, of course, yess. sss... Does this work? Of course, things ssuch as premiums and other cossts have to be figured in. But how WELL does it work? (And, Precious, are there other ratios involving It and other thingss?)

S.
Smeagol
(12/12/2003; 20:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113372)
Less work, more play?
We were lisstening to Master's talking-box today, and it said that 14,000 jobs were losst in California last MONTH. Not happy holidays for all, O no...

S.
Liberty Head
(12/12/2003; 20:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113373)
Just For Fun

Today's discussion on the nickle got me thinking about pennies.
I hate pennies with a passion, but I thought I might change my mind if pennies were made from a more interesting metal. Hmmmm! Like gold for instance. Yeah! That's the ticket. Maybe the mint could put a gold earring in Lincoln's ear?
I wanted to better visualize what a gold penny would look like.
My research shows production and distribution costs for the penny are over 80% of the face value, leaving less than 20% for gold costs.
With gold at $410/oz, without costs going over face value, about 217,000 solid gold pennies could be made with the gold from a one ounce gold eagle.

The picture is more clear. There you are with your jewlers eye loupe and a pair of tweezers, picking up 50 little pieces of gold foil and trying to stack them in a tiny paper coin tube. No doubt, the bank would still insist you write your account number on each tube as well.

Nah! I would still hate pennies.

Best Wishes
MK
(12/12/2003; 20:48:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113374)
Smeagol. . .
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/12/04/MNG0Q3FQD31.DTL"And, Precious, are there other ratios involving It and other thingss?"

I'm glad you asked that, good Smeagol. Come closer and I will whisper in your ear:

"Iranian law retains an old Islamic definition of blood money as one of the following: 100 camels, 200 cows, 1,000 sheep, 200 silk dresses, 1,000 gold coins or 10,000 silver coins." (Link above has details.)

So there you have it, good friend. Ratios of all kinds. Now you must find a place to sit quietly. . .think. . .count. . .
Cytek
(12/12/2003; 21:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 113375)
I think Snow was crying today
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=3985949≠wsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currenciesJohn Snow said the dollar's decline was "orderly," a comment dollar bears took as a green light to sell the currency, analysts said.

Snow noted on Bloomberg Television, "The dollar on a traded-weighted basis is still higher today than it has been for most of the last 25 years."

Later, during the New York trading day, President George W. Bush called for a strong U.S. dollar and suggested a strengthening U.S. economy should lend support to its value.

Cytek
Does the left had know what the right hand is doing or are they both confused and trying to confuse the markets? Or are Snow's comments saying the dollar's decline has been orderly because we the treasury have been propping it up because if we haden't it would be disastrous.
Got Gold? you better.
Gandalf the White
(12/12/2003; 21:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113376)
FORGET the Nickels !!!
specie-man (12/12/03; 18:51:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 113369)
One More Time - nickel coin values
===
BUT --- Sir Specie-man, you forgot the REFINING Costs !
It is best to just get the 0.9999 PURE Au from USAGOLD !
<;-)
Goldilox
(12/12/2003; 22:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113377)
History of paper excess
@Solomon Weaver:

Not to defend President Clinton, but just for clarity, he was in no way the first to debase the currency. It's been going on pretty regularly since FDR (and was heavily utilized by Washington and Lincoln to finance their wars). The demos tax and spend and the republicans borrow and spend. The one thing they have in common is they love to spend more than their predecessor. That's why the dollar curve is so smooth all the way down. No one has dared interrupt the cash creation process for fear of shutting down a system that can't seem to sustain itself without "stimulus" that has become confused with "growth".
Cometose
(12/12/2003; 23:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113378)
gold mining shares in the metals bull of the 70's
Edward Gofsky article at FSO has some historical data on mining stocks in the former metals bull market.....You won't believe the prices these companies came from and went too ..........Great Article worth a read from Financial Sense University ....my apologies in advance if this is already posted info....this is not fantasy :these are facts....it's a pretty good barometer to follow to get your expectations adjusted for what happened the last time....He said that this may rival the dot.com bubble.....in multiples
Smeagol
(12/13/2003; 00:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113379)
Thinking... and counting...
Sss...and getting hungry! Too bad they don't ssay anything about fish in their law... we thinks we could get LOTS of fish!
We assumes that Gold or Silver Dinars are the coins mentioned in the ancient Iranian law that kindly Sir MK whispers in our ears?...or?

Still thinkin'... and sneakin - we cant sit sstill,
Probably because we jusst read the 'Gold Derivative Banking Crisis' article by GATA. Ssss... ssoon we will ssurely all live in interessting times...

Blood money is costly to criminals, and jusstly sso. But ach! ssss... Paper money is costly to Everyone!

S.
Smeagol
(12/13/2003; 00:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 113380)
ACH!
Where'd everyone go... O, it's a new day where you are... yikes... we feel ssso uncomfortable being firsst! Nowhere to hide!

S.
Dollar Bill
(12/13/2003; 05:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113381)
*>*
http://members.aol.com/sdamuth/ndx1212.gifMore life to the naz left to go. link to chart.

I checked and didnt see this news posted yet...
No move in OPEC to euro oil pricing, says Attiyah
Friday December 12, 11:25 am ET
By Edmund Blair

CAIRO, Dec 12 (Reuters) - OPEC (News - Websites) will not consider switching dollar-denominated oil sales to the euro because of the difficulties involved in such a ground-breaking shift, cartel President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar said on Friday....Attiyah rejected a suggestion from outgoing Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Secretary-General Alvaro Silva that producers might debate the move to counter the decline in the dollar's value against other currencies. "I don't think we will discuss it. I don't think it is the right time to discuss it because we believe it is not easy to switch from currency to currency," Attiyah said...."Yes, I am concerned about the weaker dollar but we believe we should be pragmatic, that we cannot switch because it is very complicated."

OPEC could not afford to make the shift only to find the currency market favouring the dollar again, he added.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Non-OPEC Russia, encouraged by European politicians seeking to bolster the euro's prestige, has said the move to euro pricing might be possible for Russian oil sales to euro zone countries.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(12/13/2003; 06:52:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113382)
@Solomon Weaver - Dear Mr President
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmFrom ANOTHER site:

"This morning:

Gold: Confiscation Move Begins?
A number of banks, Washington Mutual, Sterling Savings Bank, and Venture Bank among them, reportedly have sent out "Changes in Terms" notices to all of their customers. As of January 1st say the reports, you won�t be able to store cash, or gold or silver in your safe deposit boxes! I�ve written to Washington Mutual for a comment, but haven�t heard back from them yet. Most people don�t even read the "change in Terms" because it�s not a negotiated thing. You accept the terms or find another bank. So these "notices" usually get "round filed" without reading. Except by our sharp-eyed readers.

Confiscation set up? The fine print and a few scattered calls seem to indicate that this is being done under the disguise of "National Security", but it�s a far stretch for us to figure how our small pile of coins in a safe deposit box constitutes a threat to the country. Unless the buck is in bigger trouble than we ever thought - and judging by overnight currency moves, that could very well be the case!

Please call your bank today, and ask them if it�s true that no bullion/coins/currency will be allowed in their safe deposit boxes starting January 1st. and then file a report by clicking here. If it turns out to be true, one could infer without being written off as a Looney (a crazy person, not the Canadian coin) that the events of post 9/11 are being used to set up gold confiscation. Especially when you couple this development with reports that Homeland Security has sneaked through authority to force all gold sales books - including coin shops - be opened for federal inspectors.

How would you set up confiscation? Like I need a safe deposit box for storing my car titles and such? That�s why cars are registered and we have things like lost title reports and the like.
We might be at that place I warned of couple of years ago, when I advised readers that as we buy gold (at $260) it should be in U.S. Eagles or Canadian Maples because the Eagle is coin of the realm - and harder to confiscate, and with NAFTA, if there is a shiny side to that beast, it may be that having a little Canadian money around the house is excusable. The no brainer investment of a lifetime? Investing in a home safe mounted in lots of concrete and rebar that you don�t talk about."
Max Rabbitz
(12/13/2003; 08:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113383)
It's not like they weren't warned
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/13/business/13gas.html?ex=1071896400&en=203a5fbf3b186f43&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLNatural Gas rose to over $7 on Friday.

"Natural gas is so critical to U.S. consumers and the economy that if someone has been manipulating this market they should go to Jail" said Senator Orrin Hatch, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

He plans to hold hearings in January. Perhaps he could just review the warnings from Chairman Greenspan earlier this year and then pass an energy bill with some practical measures to increase supply. But instead the politicians need to pander to ignorant consumers and special interests only interested in access to cheap natural resources.

Good thing Black Blade has a Black Belt.

Remarx
(12/13/2003; 08:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 113384)
Gold Across Borders Questions
Gandalf has given me some good advice and anecdotal information about transporting gold between the US and Canada. Does anyone have a link to official or specific information? Does one need to declare it if the value is less than $10,000? Are there any other laws one should know about?

Thanks in advance. -r
DryWasher
(12/13/2003; 08:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113385)
@WAC (Wide Awake Club)(msg#: 113382)
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
If you go to the given link you will find the following added item which casts considerable doubt on the veracity of the purported rule changes:

"Banks and Gold Update
About half a dozen readers called their banks yesterday and got a resounding "No, we don't care what goes in your safe deposit boxes" and among them was a Washington Mutual, so we're going to lower our level of concern. ...............................".

DryWasher:
If by some chance that report should turn out to be true, which seems doubtful at the moment, it would indeed raise serious concerns about the intentions of our government. In my opinion the safety of a bank deposit box is, and always has been, in doubt. Remember what FDR did in the 1930's.

Physical Gold,in your possession, stored in a place,or places, where no one else can find it, particularly if no one else knows you have it, is the best insurance you that can have in my opinion.

DryWasher.
Max Rabbitz
(12/13/2003; 08:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113386)
A question for Senator Hatch
It sounds like there's no Jail time involved for manipulation of markets that are not so important, like those of outdated and barbaric commondity metals once used as money. Not even important enough for an investigation.
We shall see.
Camel
(12/13/2003; 09:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113387)
Golden Opportunity for the Green Party

Enclosed is a letter advocating a partial gold backing for the dollar that has been circulating in the upper levals of the Green Party. So far this has been very well received and could possibly become part of the national platform. All pretty elementary to people here, but it has taken them almost completely by surprise.

***************

While economics is not an exact science there are one or two axioms that have risen to the level of Law . One of these is that excessive money creation eventually leads to inflation. As more and more money is printed the value of the that money gradually decreases and prices of almost everything begin at rise.

Most liberals have at one time or another been ridiculed for supporting "Keynesian economics", that is ,big government social programs financed by deficit spending, but these criticisms have largely gone unheeded because most feel that government social programs are necessary to counteract the many injustices and inequities that exist in society.

It is ,however,equally true that Keynesian economics has been the enabler of almost every war in recent history,and perhaps if people had to pay for their wars ( rather than just print the money) they might be less inclined to engage in them. No better example can be found than the recent 87 billion appropriation for the Iraq war, accompanied by big tax cuts.

Keynesian economics came into being during the 1930's depression, when it was determined that it would be necessary for the government to inject large amounts of money into the economy so as to extricate the country from an intractable depression.

As a necessary corollary to this was the simultaneous abandonment of the gold standard, which stipulates that a countries paper currency can be redeemed at any time for a certain amount of gold. The idea of a gold standard is incompatible with Keynesian economics because people would simply take the newly printed dollars created out of thin air and redeem them for gold, quickly exhausting the nations gold reserves.

So in a sweeping economic program aimed at ending the depression, Roosevelt repudiated the gold standard , confiscated all existing gold supplies in private hands and made it illegal for US citizens to own gold , (except for jewelry and antique coins.) It has been illegal for US citizens at own gold until the early 1970s.

Gold is the antithesis of the dollar. The dollar represents a society that has been corrupted by a shadowy, unaccountable financial and corporate elite that has gained control of the credit creation mechanism to enact a scheme of world domination. Unlimited credit bestows unlimited power.Current outstanding credit of the various sectors of the US economy now totals about 30 trillion.( as compared to the total value of the US stock market of about 12 trillion). It is the power bestowed by this 30 trillion with which America rules the world.

Perhaps because gold was illegal in this country for nearly 40 years the idea of gold and a gold standard is something that is almost completely foreign to contemporary American thought. We live in a highly ethnocentric, dollar centric world in which certain assumptions and predisposition are totally unquestioned. Not so the rest of the world.

Probably the most significant event in the world of international finance in recent years has been the launch of the European currency the Euro. The combined European Union has a population and a GNP greater than that of the US and its currency came into being as a way to overthrow the tyranny of the dollar, that has prevailed since the end of WW II.

Largely unknown to the American public the Euro has a 15 % gold reserve requirement, which places a theoretical limit on the extent to which credit may be created. The US dollar has no such backing,nor is it possible for it to have such a backing because there is simply not enough gold to cover the 30 trillion of monetary aggregates that have already been created

This is the Achilles heal of the American empire.

The rest of the world has an affinity for gold. The countries of the Mideast, China, India, Africa have a history of gold dating back 5000 years. It is in their blood, and they understand it in a visceral way that we do not. They also have been the primary victim of American economic imperialism they have seen their economies become ever increasingly dominated by American corporations and their native cultures overwhelmed by the seemingly unlimited supply of money.

Almost any one with a job in America can get a credit card with a $5,000 line of credit. He or she then goes to Walmart and buys goods produced in China and the fictitious dollars end up in a Central Bank in China. The consumer here becomes hopelessly entrapped in debt often paying 18% interest to the loan sharks and the bank in China has huge deposits of American dollars that they can't dispose of.

Total consumer debt in this country is about 9 trillion about 1 trillion of which is credit card debt.
Because the U.S is the worlds largest consumer Central Banks around the world gradually have come keep about 75 % of their reserves in dollar denominated assets, masking the inflationary pressure of excess dollar creation in this country by absorbing all the extra dollars. To counter these imbalances ,which have been building for decades, the rest of the world is engineering a switch from the dollar to the Euro and gold . All they have to do is sell their dollars and buy gold. The value of the dollar goes down and the value of gold goes up, and they have struck a blow against the arrogant Americans.

This could provide a golden opportunity for the Green Party to align itself with the rest of the world as well as expand its political base by achieving a meeting of the minds with a wide spectrum of groups such as the Libertarians nominally on the far right demanding more fiscal responsibility.

The Green party should propose the same reserve structure for the dollar as now exists for the Euro .This would put the Green Party in a leadership role on an issue that is not yet fully on the event horizon of public awareness and could potentially gain many votes from individuals on the right who are disgusted and disenchanted with the American economic system but have no effective political voice.
Gandalf the White
(12/13/2003; 10:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113388)
My ONLY political post !
Camel (12/13/03; 09:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 113387)
Golden Opportunity for the Green Party
---
The HOBBITS party is totally ON the GOLD STANDARD !
Go HOBBITS !
OK, -- ENOUGH of this stuff !
<;-)
Goldilox
(12/13/2003; 10:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113389)
Friday's rally
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmsnippit:

"Forgive me for being so openly skeptical of the market.� Despite the decline of the dollar, the Dow managed to rise, and as we pointed out earlier in the week, the Dow may just be doing what real estate has.� Namely, go up in price (not to be confused with value) due to inflation. From Monday's close around 9965, with the morning dollar conversion at .819 Euro, to Friday's Euro .813, the market could theoretically rise to 10038 on the currency shift alone.� We ended four points above that.�
Goldilox:

Thanks for the post, WAC. If the dollar has dumped about 25% of its value in the last year, then a proportional rise in $ denominated portfolio shares has done no more than hedge its original value (BEFORE TAX DRAIN). Market hucksters touting 25-35% returns are essentially offering the unwary public a flat line hedge against the dollar's fall. Whoopie!

As we all know gold, is a much safer hedge, given the MUCH greater propensity of equities to fall back.

With gold rising only about 35% this year, recalculation of its value strongly suggests that manipulation is still successful at price depression. POG should be much higher if there has been any real appreciation. This is why gold prices expressed in other currencies are flat or even lower.

To me this suggests that appreciation in PMs is still in the wings, as it must break out beyond the dollar depreciation to experience a major rise in "value".

Get gold - protect your wealth by protecting your stash.
Gandalf the White
(12/13/2003; 10:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113390)
Two "RANTS" on slow day ! <;-)
Sir DryWasher said:
DryWasher (12/13/03; 08:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 113385)
@WAC (Wide Awake Club)(msg#: 113382)
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

If you go to the given link you will find the following added item which casts considerable doubt on the veracity of the purported rule changes:

"Banks and Gold Update
About half a dozen readers called their banks yesterday and got a resounding "No, we don't care what goes in your safe deposit boxes" and among them was a Washington Mutual, so we're going to lower our level of concern.
===

YES, Sir DryWasher !! The BANKS do not care ! --- THEY just do as DIRECTED ! IF, the Government says, "JUMP !", they do ! AND, THERE goes the GOLD in the "Safe" Deposit Box !
Have you ever wondered WHY they are called "Safe" Deposit Boxes ?
---
OH yes, one more rant, I remember reading a post about someone asking the U.S.A. Customs Official about taking or bringing 200 U.S. Gold Eagles into and out of the Country --- IT may not be the U.S.A Official that has a concern, BUT the Official of the other country that you go TO or FROM as you depart or come back to the U.S.A. !!!!
---
I know of a specific case where a nameless traveler was accused of SMUGGLING Gold into Thailand ! He had only five ounces and was jailed until the U.S. Embassy interviened.
YES, Let us find the RULES and have a legal decision !
ANY lawyers out there willing to expound on this ?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(12/13/2003; 10:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113391)
ATTN: ALL LURKERS and newbies !!! Did you see this ? <;-)
Take a TRIP into the "Archives" to 12/11/03 -- Message # 113264MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
Lurker Magnet: FREE copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing"
We haven't done this for a long time, but this looks like a good time to do it again:

We would like to get the lurkers involved, get some new thoughts, ideas, opinions in the mix here at the Forum.

So. . .

The next 50 first time posters will receive a free copy of "The ABCs of Gold Investing" delivered to your door. Here's how to get one:
====
EARLY Christmas Present !
<;-)
misetich
(12/13/2003; 12:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113392)
Global: Labor-Market Spin - S. Roach MorganStanley
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031212-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

The spin-meisters are hard at work proclaiming the long awaited healing of the US labor market. Jobs have now been up for four months in a row, and many of the so-called leading indicators of future employment growth -- jobless claims, work schedules, and purchasing managers� hiring intentions -- are flashing green. And so the verdict has been rendered: At long last, the great American hiring machine is finally shifting gears -- marking a critical turning point for the US economy on the road to sustainable recovery.

I don't buy it. As I read the US labor market, there is still compelling evidence of a fundamental breakdown in the time-honored relationship between aggregate demand and employment. While it seems that the worst of the layoff carnage is over in the aggregate -- at least for the time being -- this recovery bears no relationship whatsoever to the classic hiring-led upturns of the past.
....................
There seems to be a real disconnect between the actual numbers on the hiring front and the impressions that have been formed in financial markets. Total nonfarm payrolls have expanded by only 328,000 workers over the August to November 2003 period -- an average of 82,000 per month. That's far short of the pace of job creation that normally occurs at this stage in a business cycle recovery -- somewhere in the range of 250,000 to 300,000 per month. Yet many have been quick to interpret the recent modest pickup in hiring as a sign that Corporate America is finally breaking the shackles of risk aversion and emerging from the funk of recent years. The mix of recent hiring trends tells a very different picture. It turns out that fully 84% of the total increase in nonfarm payrolls over the August to November period is traceable to hiring in four segments of the labor market -- the temporary staffing industry, health, education, and government -- where combined jobs have increased by 68,000 per month. In other words, the bulk of the so-called hiring turnaround since August has been concentrated in either the contingent workforce (temps) or in those industry groupings that are least exposed to global competition. This hardly speaks of a US business sector that has consciously made an important transition from downsizing to expansion. It merely reflects the fact that scale is increasing in the most sheltered and least productive segments of the economy.
***************
Misetich

Roach joins the chorus of goldbugs in "doubting" Feds statistical reporting

The spinmasters are governing through lies and deceit- evidence Retail Sales which was pronounced by the Feds distributed propoganda yesterday as being significantly higher than that reported by retailers


Trillions of $ have disappeared as gullible investors followed this deceitful pipepipers

..and trillions more debt has been accumulated...

Two ways out - default or hyperinflation

The Feds have chosen the latter...

A little PHYSICAL GOLD ACCUMULATION is in order to protects one's wealth and/or retirement

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/13/2003; 12:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113393)
Natural Gas Price Soars 46 Percent
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/ap/ap_story.html/Financial/AP.V5555.AP-Natural-Gas-Ral.html#Snip:

WASHINGTON (AP)--A 46 percent surge in the price of natural gas since Thanksgiving has been so startling, one analyst has suggested the futures markets should be investigated.

Natural gas for January delivery rose surged 60.6 cents, or 9 percent, Friday to $7.221 per 1,000 cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest close since Feb. 28, when prices settled at $8.10, and was $2.30 above the Nov. 26 close.

As a result, consumers could see higher energy bills as early as next month, analysts said. Any increase won't be nearly as severe as the recent run-up in futures prices because
***************
Misetich

...and as Blackblade has been forwarning you haven't seen nothing yet!

..The Feds reported no inflation in the PPI index yesterday...

Warning - Warning

A Tsunami of import price inflation has been accumulating in the shores of exporters to US markets...

...The said tsunami caused by inflation in the shores of theose exporters, coupled with a lower US $ is said to be leaving those shores within the next few months.

...though with the "voyage delay" (as it works and imbeds itself within the US economy) it ought to hit US coastline during the summer of 2004

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetich
(12/13/2003; 12:46:56 MDT - Msg ID: 113394)
Saudi Arabia Sees No Oil Shortage
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=PREKDXP4YFDI2CRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=3987444Snip:

CAIRO (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, said on Saturday it would not consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars despite a weakened U.S. currency.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi also said he was concerned about a surge in oil prices, which has sent U.S. crude to around $33 a barrel, but added the rise was not due to a shortage of supply but rather issues such as the weather and speculators.

When asked if Saudi Arabia would consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars, Naimi, who was in Cairo for a meeting of ministers from Arab oil exporting nations, said: "No." "Nobody is talking about the euro... As far as I know I have never said anything about the euro," Naimi said, adding that OPEC would not discuss the issue of switching sales to the European currency when the cartel meets on February 10.

Outgoing secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Alvaro Silva, had earlier said producers might debate such a move to counter the dollar's decline.

But Naimi's view on the euro was echoed by other Arab OPEC ministers meeting in Cairo.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar earlier dismissed the idea saying OPEC could not afford to make the move only to find the currency market favoring the dollar again.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

World crude prices rose after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this month said they were targeting a higher price to offset purchasing power lost to the dollar's dive. OPEC agreed to keep a tight rein on oil supplies.

****************
Misetich

The "Euro" card is being played by OPEC - as a first step they have demanded higher prices due to the devaluation of US $ -

The second step - the pricing in Euro's and/or a basket of currencies

The third step - pricing in Euros

Fourth step - demanding payment in GOLD

Just as China has obtained US concenssion (Taiwan) so will OPEC's through the initial higher price band

Of course nothing to worry about re: price inflation in the US - just ask the Feds

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
misetich
(12/13/2003; 13:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113395)
Treasury Budget - UP UP and AWAY
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/treasury_budget/year/2003/yearly/12/index.htmlSnip:

The U.S. Treasury reported a November budget deficit of $43.0 billion, well below expectations and well below the $58.8 billion deficit last November. The balance benefited from a sharp 9.9 percent year-on-year drop in outlays to $161.1 billion. But the Congressional budget office noted that outlays were skewed lower by a calendar quirk -- November 1 fell on a weekend crowding government payments into late October. Total receipts were $118.2 billion, 0.2 percentage points below last year despite sharply higher economic strength in the 2003 November. Given the quirk, the data will not affect expectations for rising government deficits and financing needs.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Treasury usually runs a budget deficit of roughly $35 billion dollars during the month of November. If the trend holds, this would be smaller than October's budget deficit of $69.5 billion. Lately, tax receipts have improved over a year earlier, but outlays were growing more rapidly than receipts versus year ago figures.

******************
Misetich

Skewed by a calendar quirk - uuhm - Tax receipts are higher comparative to last year - No surprise there - it should be with billions of stimuli thrown to revive the jobless recovery

..spending is increasing and with higher energy prices and oncoming price inflation, military spending etc etc. $500-600 billions is in the bag - not counting IR, off-budget items etc etc

Debt to the penny you ask?

12/11/2003 $6,939,621,502,947.36

..only $60+ billions away from 7 TRILLIONS

..though its pittance comparatively to what MR O'Neil has reported - $44 trillions and GROWING

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Goldilox
(12/13/2003; 13:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113396)
Budget deficit
@misetich

Thanks for the uplifting budget deficit update (LOL).

Gee - 6 Tr to 7 Tr in only six months - that's astonishing - at least to anyone not on Prosac. . .

I think the government drug testing rules need to be better inforced. We could start by testing everyone in Congress and the current administration for FORMALDEHYDE! They may be the "walking dead".
misetich
(12/13/2003; 13:22:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113397)
People Who Own Gold
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Snip:

Foreign central banks are shifting into overdrive on their holdings of US debt last week, as evidenced by their balances at the Fed increasing by $9 billion to a new record. Hahaha! Dorks!

Just to show those jerk foreigners that they haven't cornered the market in stupidity, US banks also bought up a nice $4 billion themselves!

But, and if you really want to see something scary, walk with me over to where the Treasury holds sway, and we will cling to each other in fear and whimper pitifully as we watch vile specters swirl around us, and we note that they issued another $17 billion of debt in the same short week! The whole scene reminds me of the end of the movie "Raiders of the Lost Ark," where our intrepid hero, Indiana Jones and his perky girlfriend are bound to a post, and the Nazis are opening the Lost Ark of the Covenant and all those angels are swirling around. At first the specters are beautiful and friendly, like what happens when you first start printing money and creating excess credit. Everything is wonderful and lovely! Then, right before our very eyes, the angels metamorphose into shrieking, devouring demons, and everyone is killed and the earth is swept bare, except our hero and his lovely sidekick.

But getting back into something more attuned to reality as it really exists, we note that the Fed increased raw, fungible credit by $5.8 billion, too! In one week! And, I might add, to a new record, another new all-time new high, never before seen since the inception of the entire Federal Reserve System! A veritable avalanche of raw, naked credit, the original high-powered money if ever there were such a thing, the fabled Money Out Of Thin Air of story and song, money that can be multiplied by almost a hundred-fold, a thousand-fold, a million-fold, a zillion-fold, all through the miracle of fractional banking!
..........................
John Myers, of Outstanding Investments, as concerns gold, says "Take the number of ounces of gold needed to buy a share in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When gold became unrealistically priced at the end of 1980, one ounce of gold would buy one share in the Dow. That was when gold was at $800 per ounce and the Dow was at 800. In early 2000 that ratio became an incredible 42-to-1."

"In the same vein oil is also cheap. In 1980 it took 22 barrels of oil to buy one share in the Dow. By 2000 that ratio reached an astounding 545-to-1. Today, the ratio is still 312-to-1."
*****************

Misetich

Through time prices always comeback to its mean - Oil is cheap priced in any fiat currency and it will adjust upward as consumption increases - re Asia

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express



misetich
(12/13/2003; 13:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113398)
Dollar Falls for Fifth Week Versus Euro on Interest Rate View
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aYIhPcJE13ws&refer=homeSnip:

The dollar fell more than 2 percent against the euro in the week after Snow characterized the dollar's decline as ``fairly modest'' and defined dollar strength as ``confidence in the currency.''
.....................
Snow later said his comment did not indicate a change in U.S. policy. ``As I've said many times, we have a strong-dollar policy,'' he said. ``A strong dollar is good for America. We fell that the exchange value of currencies are best set in open, competitive markets.''
......................
*************

Mr. Snow is taking the "long view approach" and recognizes the overvaluation of US $ - The 10-12% current devaluation is 'modest' by any standards

..though Mr. Snow ought to be careful going forward - his "modesty" may lead him to be BURIED UNDER A PAPER AVALANCHE

..Mr. Snow is missing the "rails" he got used to in his previous employment - This locomotive (US $) has derailed

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/13/2003; 13:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113399)
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Agingfast
(12/13/2003; 14:04:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113400)
misetich - re: Mogambo Guru Quotes
Daughty can be a howlingly funny writer but he just doesn't understand the Federal Reserve balance sheet that is released each Thursday. In the article you posted he complains about the increase of $4.4 bil. in currency in circulation (CIC) for the week ended 12/3/03 and the increase of $38.7 bil. for the year ended 12/3/03 and, as usual, implies that those increases are brought about by government people intent on inflating the currency. In fact, however, 1) changes in CIC are triggered by the public (CIC rises around holidays and in times of panic, such as the late 1999 surge in CIC as fears of Y2K problems peaked), 2) increases in CIC drain reserves, and therefore 3) the desk has to offset that drain with securities purchases. No plot - no conspiracy. Further, in the posted article Daughty again makes the mistake of comparing total reserves of about $41 billion with total bank ASSETS of about $4.4 trillion -- when, in fact, reserves apply against certain bank LIABILITIES and not against assets.
Goldendome
(12/13/2003; 16:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113401)
Unfunded future liabilities
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

An extremely interesting discussion today between James Puplava and Laurence Kotlikoff on the growing problem of U.S. unfunded liabilities. At the risk of triggering the interest and ire of the hoards of censors now screening for political content, here. [often the two (politics and finance)are so intertwined, that it's difficult to separate one from another!] I am going to forgo any embellishments on my part and limit what I print to quoted and paraphrased material from the discussion; attempting to winnow any partisanship that I might personally input, from the discussion presented.

Puplava begins the discussion with this statement: "Late last year, then Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill wanted to know: How prepared is the nation to pay for it's future bills?" ... The findings were so shocking, that the findings were not published, O'Neill was fired, and the report was censored from the budget report."

Laurence Kotlikoff then responds, that the report showed the U.S. to be essentially bankrupt with no way currently, to fund and pay for some $45 trillion in accrued liabilities; this is one of the problems, that all government programs are funded on a pay as you go basis.

Kotlikoff says that eventually the government will be faced with three choices:
1) Either taxes must be raised dramatically.
2) Benefits demanded and delivered must be cut.
3) Dollars must be printed to pay for the liabilities.

Kotlikoff then expands on number (3) by saying that at the moment printing of money appears to be the only remedy being considered. That soon, foreigners, (many of whom also face similar problems with aging populations in Europe and Japan) will come to recognize the U.S. problem, demand higher interest rates on our debt; and he fears, put us into a hyperinflated depression, such as Argentina.

Puplava offers, that this will probably happen in a maximum of five years.

Kotlikoff expresses an opinion that what we are doing now is, "fiscal child abuse." Because the problems are being pushed out onto younger generations: His kids, your kids, your grandkids!

Both men were astonished at the new Medicare prescription drug bill recently passed. Kotlikoff says that bill alone increases the unfunded liabilities to "$55 trillion dollars." And that "every year the unfunded liabilities total will grow by $2 trillion."

-----------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------

Well-- you don't have to have been reading, writing, or lurking on this forum for long, to have learned much of this already. As many, Many, Knights and Ladies have spoken on this topic before. And it remains one of the major reasons that many of us see gold and silver as a way to protect ourselves from the tidal wave of debt that continues to build up and approach, to eventually inundate us with, as yet, unknown financial miseries. Protect ourselves... If you have a talking computer, it's worthwhile time spent, listening. ------Gdome
Aristotle
(12/13/2003; 16:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113402)
Cutting against the grain
Let's say you've got a good ol' family dog that's practically your best friend. Hell, let's face it... if he could pay for rounds of beer while losing to you at golf he WOULD be your best friend. But basically, he's a freeloader, you love him anyway, and that's where it stands.

So how often do you feel the need to announce to the world as you walk around town, "Hey, folks, I am keeping my dog."

You don't say anything of the sort because there's simply no reason to. For the same reason, you don't pass people on the street with the greeting, "Good afternoon! The sun rises in the East!" Rarely do we feel compelled to give voice to a matter of fact. We speak not to waste our breath but to establish a dialog to move parties involved from old ground to new ground.

My point: when a comment is presented as matter-of-fact and should otherwise seem an unnecessary utterance, it is those times when you must take special heed of the superfical calm surface being painted that perhaps things are not the same in the undercurrent.

From today's news:

CAIRO (Reuters) - When asked if Saudi Arabia would consider selling oil in euros instead of dollars, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who was in Cairo for a meeting of ministers from Arab oil exporting nations, said: "No." "Nobody is talking about the euro... As far as I know I have never said anything about the euro," Naimi said, adding that OPEC would not discuss the issue of switching sales to the European currency when the cartel meets on February 10.

Outgoing secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Alvaro Silva, had earlier said producers might debate such a move to counter the dollar's decline.

But Naimi's view on the euro was echoed by other Arab OPEC ministers meeting in Cairo.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar earlier dismissed the idea saying OPEC could not afford to make the move only to find the currency market favoring the dollar again.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most valuable commodity market and would deal a heavy blow to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

World crude prices rose after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this month said they were targeting a higher price to offset purchasing power lost to the dollar's dive.

"Sell in euros? No, why should I sell in euros? I sell in dollars," Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031213/energy_saudi_1.html

Ari again: Well, that's probably enough of that. See my point?

It's *almost* like he's saying, in other words, "Good afternoon to you, officer. Although you might smell gasoline on my hands, I did not set fire to that building."

Bewware the matter-of-fact denial. The transition is happening all around us.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
MK
(12/13/2003; 17:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113403)
Ari and All. . . .
Great post. I was going to comment on the same article, but hadn't gotten around to it. It's alot easier to move politically in the international environment when the nation states of the world believe you have cause -- unequivocal cause. In the meanwhile, the producers are certainly covering their bases. And the strong surge in gold and euro demand from the ME isnot occuring in a vacuum.

To me, the part of that article about raising the price of oil to compensate for the drop in the dollar's value was the most interesting. This has incredibly important implications for the world economy as well as investment portfolios far and wide. It also echoes themes played to the wild and wooly inflationary 1970s.

What we sometimes forget about an dollar inflationary trend (since we haven't seen its outward manifestations for a long time) is how it compounds and feeds upon itself as it moves through the world economy. As the oil producers raise the dollar price of oil, so the European, Japanese and Chinese exporters must pay more for their oil imports which translates to higher prices for the products they in turn export to the United States. All the while the pumping heart of the world economy sends more inflation outward to the extremities........increasing waves and spirals of monetary energy that return to the center.

I would like to see Alan Greenspan dismiss this rolling phenomena the way he did Chinese currency policies last week. Of course all of this inflation looks like a recovery to the people living in these various countries. It will look like a recovery in the United States too -- and just in time for the election. The penance for these monetary sins will be paid later.

I have likened these past three or four years in various writings, and discussions with friends and clients, to the period 1968 - 1972 (an election year). We had a de jure devaluation of the dollar in 1971 preceded by a monumental attempt to keep the price of gold in check at $35. Similarly we have had a de facto devaluation of the over the past year preceded by a monumental attempt to keep the price of gold in check at the $250 to $350 level. Many of us remember what happened to gold in 1973-74 once the election was over. I'll remind that the price essentially quintupled over the period to the $200 level. 1972, the election year, was a year of gradual increase for gold, followed by the explosion in 1973-74. Whether or not the early 2000's will be a repeat remains to be seen. Let's just say it's setting up in much the same way -- and FOR THE SAME POLITICAL / ECONOMIC REASONS. Who was it that said if history doesn't repeat, it at least rhymes.

2004 could be the year before the explosion. We have thus far been listening to the tantalizing strains of the prelude only......And the latest off-hand warning by OPEC rings a familiar strain.

Aside:

Do I have that about right, CB2?? I seem to remember a conversation recently where we both predicted statements like the one just made by OPEC. I believe what you said to me is that they will find that they have no choice but let the price of oil run. Russia of course has been more direct in its allegiances -- with reasons of its own (as you pointed out as well).
Goldilox
(12/13/2003; 17:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113404)
Saudi/ Euro article
@ Ari and MK:

Another instance of the best confirmation of government policy comes in the form of their denial. File it with Snow's "wind up" toy statements. . . pull the string in his neck and he says "Strong dollar ...strong dollar".
Goldilox
(12/13/2003; 18:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113405)
Mark Twain
history doesn't repeat - it rhymes.
the best confirmation of government policy is their outright denial of the same.

I think both statements have been attributed to Mr. Clemens
MK
(12/13/2003; 18:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 113406)
It rhymes. . .
That sounds about right. It was Twain. Thanks.



steady
(12/13/2003; 18:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113407)
shrinking supply .... kiss gold under 400 good bye!
as teh chinese market matures with time the bredth and depth of the market will improve, as right now the new players are bound within to narrow ofa trading range time and space have to pass so that all price levles can be accesed by traders..
rember how tehy you to have 1/4 1/8 1/64 on shares some say for commision but i also think so that shares at all price levels where issued to make the graph /chart stong, well in gold there is none of that but in gram trading there is.00001 or .003 or .004 thats why every ounce everygram of gold will be squeezed from one hand to another, imagine if some one a trader gets hot thitting every high tick and evry low tick accumulating 100 of grams at a time, and placing that gold stashed away think of how many individuals may try there hand at it, and think iof the gold to be traded gained lost it could be huge especially if there is a shortage , and some hot shot traders leant the 43-1 trading ratio. then bing more gold off take, as trades happemn the bank gets its cut and more gold is off taken more action causing an ever increasing in price with less physical left to satisfy the speculator/ the gamble/ the addict/ vs the establishment the central banks, ecoites, and those just now rediscovering the long dormate understanding of gold silver ratios and true value/ absolute value.

got gold?
MK
(12/13/2003; 18:31:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113409)
Goldilox
If Twain were alive today, I suspect he would have been a gold owner. He seems to have a familiar personality and he was quintessentially American. I have talked to many like him in my years as a gold broker, maybe that's why he seems familiar. Let me put it this, with his cynical frame of reference (which he turned into humor), if he were alive today, I wouldn't be surprised to discover he was a gold owner.

Talk about rank speculation......phew.......
Waverider
(12/13/2003; 18:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113410)
Oil: P&F
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$WTIC,PHTA[PA][DD][F!3!!]⪯f=GI'll post this in light of the discussion of the POO and yesterday's close at $33.00. This is an interesting P&F chart of oil which shows an Alert Quadruple Top breakout. I can't even find the quadruple top breakout pattern in my texts, but judging from the width of it's base I get a PO of $39.00. Gandalf or Socrates...thoughts...please and TIA (I'm quite new to P&F).

Waverider
Gandalf the White
(12/13/2003; 19:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 113411)
NICE POO Chart, Lady Waverider !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$WTIC,PHTA[PA][DD][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe Price Objective of this QUAD Top Breakout is ONLY $42.
A NEW HIGH !!!
<;-)

R Powell
(12/13/2003; 19:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113412)
Oil for Euros...or dollars for Euros...?
Some thoughts if I may although I'm far from knowledgeable on currency matters so feel free to correct me. I'm merely trying to learn.

What would the oil producers gain by stating, implying or insisting that their oil must be purchased in Euro's when they (and any other holders of dollars) can exchange dollars (or any other currency) into Euros (or any other currency or gold) at any time?

If, indeed, they perceive the value or purchasing power of the dollar as declining, they can "spend" these as quickly as they accumulate them for another currency or any of a number of tangible assets. Perhaps this is already being done? The price of oil can be changed daily to reflect the declining dollar but, once the oil for dollars exchange is completed, the dollars can be immediately dishoarded.

As Michael has just opined, currency appreciation or depreciation tends to perpetuate itself, often as the "effect" is passed along (magnified?) with the money itself. Could the dumping of dollars have started some years ago? (the dollar index peaked at about 120. It is currently under 90).

What would be gained, other than irritating the **#&%% out of dollar supporters, by a public acknowledgement that OPEC would rather hold Euros than dollars. Dollars can be exchanged around the clock. The relative strength of the dollar against any currency is in constant flux but an immediate exchange would seem to rid the holder of further depreciation, no?

As I write this it occurs to me that this might eventual reach a point where fewer and fewer want to hold the dollars. Will this be a cause to initiate the amount of dollars held outside the USA to decrease and for them to be somehow returned for redemption? Will we then see the return of "Big Float"? I believe the Chinese are spending dollars as fast as they earn them, but they're not exchanging them for debt instruments, they're buying big ticket items (from Boeing, etc.) and lots of less expensive items like copper and soybeans, but these they are buying in huge quantities. This helps the balance of trade but does not help the USA to export of inflation.

Might the dishoarding of dollars have already begun with the appreciating Euro and depreciating dollar as the result. If so, is not the end result the same, oil for Euros or oil for dollars which are immediately exchanged for Euros?
Happy weekend
Rich
Gandalf the White
(12/13/2003; 19:31:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113413)
HERE is the POG P&F chart also ! BEAUTIFUL !!!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GANOTHER little GREEN "X" !
TO THE MOON !!!
<;-)
specie-man
(12/13/2003; 20:39:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113414)
Oil for Euros
Maybe the OPEC countries are talking up the dollar because they still have significant quantities of dollars to unload. Once they've dishoarded themselves of dollars, then look out.



21mabry
(12/13/2003; 20:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 113415)
Economics
I had a discussion today with an econ Prof. about the rising gold and commodity prices and the impact of china upon these commodities.He stated he knew nothing about this subject.I asked about the falling dollar and rising euro he stated he did not really know about this subject other than it made europe less desirable to vaction in.We were studyingthe concept of utils of satisfaction one day in class.I asked how do you determine a util,I was told there is know util meter and that in our problem it was already given.That just sounded like voodoo gibberish to me,once again I learn more about economics here than in the institute of higher learning.21
R Powell
(12/13/2003; 21:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 113416)
specie-man // dollar dishoarding
Yes, that's most likely true. These events take quite a while to unfold, don't they.
I'd love to have the problem of having to unload a large quantity of dollars. I'd do it quickly. It wouldn't take much to secure my own (family) needs and, with no further need to search for the Yankee dollar, I'd take care of some homeless folks who are still willing to work some. A large farm where one could contribute in some way in return for three squares and a roof over one's head. No drugs or booze allowed. This wouldn't help (or suit) everyone and would exclude many but I'll bet I'd find enough.
My dad once told me that closing down the "poor farms" left many homeless. He also used to say that social security was never designed to completely support retired folks. I guess that's true especially with what so many today consider "necessities".
But whatever your retirement plans happen to be, I'd suggest NOT storing wealth in dollars for those golden years.
Rich
Skydog
(12/13/2003; 21:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113417)
@misetich...your msg#: 113398)
http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=40480Is this the US $ train wreck you were talking about?
Ten Bears
(12/13/2003; 21:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113418)
A few snips from a very good read from Dave Lewis @ Chos-onomics.
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/morn.htm

"the map is not the territory."

"Yesterday's speech from Greenspan, Capitalism and the role globalization, provides further evidence of map and territory confusion, i.e. being trapped in a rhetorical prison."

"After all, one of the more glaring examples of map and territory confusion can be seen in fiat money. Fiat money is the map which should never be confused with the territory of goods to which it refers. Real capital controls then are controls on the movement of Gold, not the paper currency du jour."

Liberty Head
(12/13/2003; 21:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113419)
RE; R Powell, Oil For Euros?

Rich,

You raise some interesting points to consider. I agree with your logic, however, I think the issue is more complex.
As you mentioned, currencies can be exchanged quickly, so why should OPEC care?
Here are some more questions:
Why should Dollarland, Rupleland,Yuanland or Euroland care what currency is favored by OPEC?
How can OPEC work the complex, ever changing dynamics to their best advantage?
Who will be the enforcer?
I don't know the answers, however, I have a hunch that gold will be the ultimate survivor on Confidence Island.

Best Wishes
Aristotle
(12/13/2003; 22:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113420)
Liberty Head, R Powell, on exchanges and "why should we care?"...
It's about as subtle as the player initiating the "bid" versus the "ask" price, and furthermore on the GROSS amount rather than the NET amount.

Are we seeing eye to eye now, gentlemen?

Boys, girls, everyone... if you go to sleep tonight with only ONE thought in your head, let it be this: the world changes on the MARGIN.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(12/13/2003; 22:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113421)
And where subtleties count....
I should have end-for-ended that first part and said initiating a trade at the "ask" versus "bid" price. But hey, it all comes out in the wash, and y'all know what I meant.

G. GYS. --- A
Goldilox
(12/13/2003; 22:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 113422)
Mark Twain
@ MK, Rich

Actually, I lived in Virginia City, NV during the late 90's and found out it was one of Clemen's hangouts when he wanted to get away from SF (prior to his NYC years). As it is a big silver town, I think he probably was a silver bug, or else he just enjoyed the company of drunken, rowdy miners.

(:>) Goldilox
Strad Master
(12/14/2003; 01:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113423)
To Boilermaker and Co(Bra)too - Further Thoughts on Stradivarius
Thanks, for the kind posts. The violin is an amazing instrument. I think I can safely say it has had more lore and passion attatched to it than any other type of instrument.
Boilermaker - you must have had a wonderful time growing up with all that music in your house. My Mom was a professional violinist who played with the Los Angeles Philharmonic for 33 years. Consequently, I played concerts up until about two weeks BEFORE I was born.
Co(Bra)too - My Strad is a particularly fine example of his later period instruments. It is from 1728 and is known as the ex-Artot ex-Alard. Both Artot and Alard were very famous violinsts of the 19th century There is a fascinating novel, that you may still be able to get if you look hard enough, called "The Violin Hunter". It is the true story of a fellow named Tarisio who worked for the famous French violin maker Vuillaume. Tarisio scoured Italy in the early and mid 1800's to find all the great instruments that, by then, were about 100 years old. Most of them had been kept in excellent condition but had fallen out of favor since they were so "old". Tarisio would offer the owners of these instruments nice, bright, shiny new French violins in trade and then take all the Amatis, Stradivaris. Guarnieris, Montagnanas, and Bergonzis back to Paris where Vuillaume replaced the old short necks, with his more modern ones, replaced the bass bars and sound posts with larger ones and heightened the bridges. All these innovations put a lot more tension on the instrument which allowed them to have a much greater carrying power. Vuillaume then sold them to all the greatest violinists of the time. Vuillaume is, essentially, the inventor of the modern violin, since before him even the greatest instruments had itty-bitty wheezy sounds - the kind you hear on those "Period Instrument" recordings that are all the rage today. Nowadays, no reputable violin maker woul put a fine instrument back into "Period" condition so most of the instruments that people play in those recordings are either newly made or old, third-rate instruments that nobody really cares about. But I digress... Alard was Vuillaume's son-in-law so he had the "pick of the litter" whenever any new violins showed up in the shop via Tarisio. So, my violin - having belonged to Alard - must have always been considered a particularly fine one since Alard could have had any he wanted. For a long time I also played with a bow made in the Vuillaume shop and I often wondered if the violin and bow had encountered one another a hundred and fifty or so years earlier. It's fun to imagine. My Strad is worth way more than my house and all that's in it (including any gold) but the tax man makes it extraordinarily difficult to sell since I'd have to give away a huge percentage. Most people whow do sell their instruments do so in Europe or Japan and then take their payment in gold or jewels that they can then sell quietly back in the states. Nevertheless, selling it would be somewhat risky if one wanted to avoid giving most of the proceeds to Uncle Sam. Anyway, I hope that helps to further clarify some Strad lore.
Dollar Bill
(12/14/2003; 02:12:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113424)
*>*
Strad Master, interesting read.
I read, in what I am going to guess was Discover magazine, about some research that lead one to believe that (many/all?) Strads were made from wood that had been soaking in the M. sea. Salt soaked into the wood is reason for the sound (?).
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(12/14/2003; 03:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 113425)
@R Powell Euros, Dollars etc
"...when they (and any other holders of dollars) can exchange dollars (or any other currency) into Euros (or any other currency or gold) at any time?"

I suspect this is actually part of the problem. They just cannot exchange their dollars for Euros at any time. If they were to move just 10% of their $ into Euros in a single day, there would be some instability in the FX markets to the the detriment of the USD. So they have to play bluff, encourage stability and controlled unloading of the green paper.

While this is going on, their most important strategy surely must be to stop, or at least reduce the accumulation of further green paper. This they can achieve by selling their product for Euros.

One other way they can reduce there USD exposure is to start to aggresively acquire $-denominated assets - DAEWOO, GM etc. Basically, any entity that is on the brink.
Caradoc
(12/14/2003; 03:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113426)
News: Saddam captured
Just announced as of 0230 Pacific. Might help the US dollar for about 24 hours before it continues its slide into oblivion.

Caradoc
steady
(12/14/2003; 04:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113427)
universe
http://wires.news.com.au/special/mm/030811-hubble.htm well i got my video back from my trip to uranus and well i just have to share it with gold bugs the world over
Operative
(12/14/2003; 04:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113428)
@ Caradoc: confirmation on your post
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/031214/1/3gnem.htmlBremer confirms Saddam capture to Governing Council: BBC
Truthcaster
(12/14/2003; 06:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113429)
Dollar/Gold &Saddam
Now that the U.S. has Saddam what happens to the
markets. First thoughts are that the Dollar will raise
and gold will take a hit for awile not saying what
the dow/nas will do on this news.. Any thoughts on
this from the wise ones of the kingdom..
goldquest
(12/14/2003; 08:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113430)
Dollar Gold & Saddam
Yep! Market surge tomorrow, gold bashing and dollar climb.
Should last all of two days!
Skydog
(12/14/2003; 08:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 113431)
Now that Saddam is in friendly hands....
http://oil.comand OPEC is touting no shortage of oil, what will happen to the price of "Black Gold" tomorrow?

DummyANI
(12/14/2003; 09:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113432)
Capture of Saddam is a Trojan horse.
Capture of Saddam cannot improve US triple deficits at all.

Capture of Saddam cannot abolish a Patriot act 2, so no foreign assets return to USA.

Barrick is keeping 28 million ounce short positions in COMEX, and astronomical margin calls are killing Barrick and JPM shorters.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen
Econoclast
(12/14/2003; 09:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113433)
21Mabry...
Saw your post yesterday about discussion with econ professor. I (since my eyes have been opened) have always been amazed that even though I majored in economics at a top university, I spent a TOTAL of one hour, in one class, one day, discussing the effect of monetary policy on the economy! That fact alone could lead one to become a "conspiracy theorist" in my opinion.
Is it intentional, or just the wave of progression (regression) in our society where the workings of the whole has become too large, complex, and unaccountable to the individual. To the point that intelligent human beings aren't even able to discern reality or the truth anymore?
Just a rhetorical question. I hope to know the answer absolutely one day, even though I may be sorry for what I wish for, in that the circumstances that provide that answer may be difficult ones for us all.

Everyone:
In the meantime (to lighten up), have a golden day,
and take this last opportunity which MAY stay open through the election to accumulate your golden lifeboat for whatever may come in the future.
CoBra(too)
(12/14/2003; 09:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113434)
Whither Saddam ...
And yes, MK, I'm absolutely with you there.

Meantime I'm wondering about the effects of Saddam's capture. A wonderous, if not magical timing, playing right into the hands of the hedonists.

And, Yes it may be the topic - even for the markets - for a day or two, though what has changed in reality? Reality - has been changed in hedonistic statitics for too long as to make any "real impact".

The whole chimera - wanted to use "chuzpa" - seems designed to stave of the unevitable end of today's fiat system for a little longer. That may be true, and who in heck cares, as the endgame is clearly written on the wall.

I'm astounded as to the resource of the hedonists to keep up mass delusions for that long. A major feat, despite the obstacles they've been facing and overcoming for so (some would say "too" long)!

... and that may be, where their Achilles' fault is to be found. Overindulgence in the same tactics, working for so long ... until, the end. The end, where proven tactics prove to be - obsolete!

Got reality - got Gold? cb2
physicalman
(12/14/2003; 09:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 113435)
SADDAM;'S CAPTURE; MARKET RACTION
Live small, save large and pass through the few remaining windows of opportunity.
physicalman
(12/14/2003; 09:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 113436)
reaction
sorry for spelling error
misetich
(12/14/2003; 09:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 113437)
Car bomb kills 17, wounds 30 policemen in western Iraq
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1504&ncid=1504&e=2&u=/afp/20031214/ts_afp/iraq_police_blast_031214092238Snip:

KHALDIYAH, Iraq (AFP) - A car bomb killed 17 policemen and wounded 30 more at a police station in western Iraq (news - web sites), police lieutenant Faiz Mohammad Motab and witnesses said.
*********************
Misetich

Saddam has been captured - good riddance

Will his capture change anything in Iraq? If the today's headline -see link above- is any indication his capture will have little effect.

Politically Saddam's capture will be played up - however - the fierce resistance against US occupation that we have witnessed in the last several months will probably continue.

Iraq Civil War

Various factions are battling one another for a variety of reasons - and the friction between these tribal leaders will continue

Ultimately a civil war may insue - with the US and its coalition of the willing right in the middle of it

Iraq still remains a quagmiere for the US - as the majority of Iraqis have not acclaimed the US as the Liberators the US had hoped for

Thousands of innocent civiliations have been killed during the US led invasion of Iraq. The official count has been ascertained and US ordered a cease to the poll it was annouced earlier this past week

These innocent civilizians have left family members, friends with hardened feelings toward the US occupation - and the sugar and candy routine will not be trusted or forgiven

In a nutshell - after the initial euphoria which undoubtedly will be played up for political reasons by the current US administration - the after shock - may be harder than many expect

The economic consequences of a continued Iraqi resistance AFTER the announced capture of Saddam will undoubtedly hit the US $ as the reconstruction costs of Iraq spiral out of control

US taxpayers are being taken out to the cleaners as billions of $ are being squandered and misdirected

...and many more billions will be required ahead

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express







Gandalf the White
(12/14/2003; 10:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 113438)
ATTN: ALL LURKERS and newbies !!! Did you see this ? <;-)
SIR M. K. is sending out early Christmas presents !
Just take a TRIP into the "Archives" to 12/11/03 -- Message # 113264 and see the "RULES" to receive your PRESENT !
---
MK (12/11/03; 11:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 113264)
---
You will be richly rewarded for your effort !
<;-)
Mr Gresham
(12/14/2003; 10:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113439)
If only...
http://www.lastoftheindependents.com/chivington.htmlall mass murderers could be brought to justice. (Looks like Nuremberg just wasn't the "deterrent" it ought to have been.)

Some "events" stand out as bumps on the inflected curve (downward? I'm SUCH a Menger/Spenglerian in December ;)

We could start with Chivington, at Sand Creek. November 29, 1864. Another "clash of cultures."

Anyway, this'll be a rally (Dow) to be sold, and a dip (gold) to be bought. Interesting how those dips are shorter and shallower, each and every one of them, these days.
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 10:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 113440)
Saddam Capture
@Misetich

How might this affect the situation in Iraq?

During the interview, General Odierno said Saddam was found without any communications gear, including cell phone, and thus was "not likely directing much or any of the current insurgencies. "He was in hiding and acting as if his eventual capture was a foregone conclusion."

IMHO, Saddam has not been directing anything except his own movements to elude capture. His capture may facilitate the "message" in that it removes an underground figurehead, but as you suggested, none of the fundamentals has been altered. The 55,000 families who lost loved ones in the Shock and Awe carpet bombing are not concerned about Saddam. He rose to power in cahoots with the western powers and he fell from grace via the same route. This is not important to millions of people struggling to find clean water, food, and rebuild their lives. When they watch the Army trucks drive away with their resources (oil, gold, cash), they know another puppet is about to lord over them and they need to continue to hone their survival skills.

How does it relate to gold? No one has even questioned what happened to the 2 or 3 trucks of gold captured by the US Army. The Iraqi people are dirt poor. Who's got the gold? No one's talking about that. Spoils of war?
Boilermaker
(12/14/2003; 10:20:17 MDT - Msg ID: 113441)
Strad Master & CB2
http://physicsweb.org/article/world/13/4/8I never cease to be amazed at the depth of knowledge displayed here (even off topic). Check this website for fascinating violin technology.
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 11:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113442)
Barrick short position on Comex
From DummyANI...

"Barrick is keeping 28 million ounce short positions in COMEX, and astronomical margin calls are killing Barrick and JPM shorters."

I don't doubt that this but wonder about your source. Can you supply a link or the source? Thanks,
Rich
Mr Gresham
(12/14/2003; 11:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 113443)
Somebody read this for me -- I have to work today, d***it!
http://www.mises.org/mengerbio.aspI mentioned Carl Menger, and I read only a tantalizing short bio on him, recently, about his mis-read of fiat's staying power during the last two decades of his life. The Depression he anticipated came a decade after his 1921 death.

This article is much more thorough, as is the entire mises.org site. Mises and the others credit him as the originator of the Austrian school of economics. He built upon the classical economics of the early 1800s.

It is likely that Economics will have to return to the roads he traveled if it is to progress at all, and perhaps the hard times ahead will trigger that.
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 11:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113444)
Saddam's capture and tomorrow's POG
Truthcaster has asked....

"Now that the U.S. has Saddam what happens to the
markets. First thoughts are that the Dollar will raise
and gold will take a hit for awile not saying what
the dow/nas will do on this news.. Any thoughts on
this from the wise ones of the kingdom.."

How the markets react is always questionable but my first thoughts are the same as yours. If you believe that the POG is in a long term bull market which may last for many years then aren't the downturns buying opportunities? We may also get a good look at exactly how much support exists under the current price levels.

Gold has it's own special qualities but is also traded as a commodity and, as such, is one of many benefiting now from the weakening dollar. I've been amazed at the particular circumstances influencing different items in the CRB that are all price positive. I'm amazed that these events seem to be unfolding at the same time for so many different items to strengthen the investment move into commodities. All the grains have their own supply/demand elements as do metals as do the softs, but it's hard to find anything that doesn't have higher price factors in play. Silver, sugar and coffee are three that haven't yet joined the party but I see somewhat near term explosive upward moves for all. The price of sugar may be influenced by, of all things, shipping charges. Unfortunately, increased by-product silver production may or may not delay any anticipated silver shortage for yet another year. This will depend on how much industrial silver use has also increased. But on gold I have no doubt. Imho, downtrends are buying opportunities.
Thoughts? Now it's time to watch some football!
Rich

mikal
(12/14/2003; 11:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 113445)
Gold to attract safe-haven avalanche
In the miasma of world news events selected by high finance, everyone has the opportunity to make of themselves a fool. I myself have done this and now, by predicting a short-term movement, a random parlay. Select from one or more of the following or one of the many others available in cyberspace or soon to come:

1) Saddam Hussein's visage frightens worldwide audiences towards more conservative, safe-haven, real investment instruments
2) Terrorism resumes and escalates at the sight of Saddam Hussein alive in US custody, or dead from suicide
3) Dow, Nikkei, Dax, etc rise briefly on the news of Saddam's capture while
4) Gold rises as dollar is stealthly distributed behind the distraction of Saddam
5) Gold rises as fears of terrorism and political instability are strengthened after the non-event of the "big" capture and US credibility and $ investments falter
Ten Bears
(12/14/2003; 11:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 113446)
symbolism . (OT)
Soldiers, active duty or retired, like to see the end of wars. Let us hope the symbolism of seeing the old and defeated tyrant dragged from his hole will bring about an end of war, death, and destruction in that region and bring about a spirit of reconciliation.
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 12:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 113447)
Mr Gresham
Let us not forget who made "the tyrant" in LARGE measure. There is always an, "enabler", yes?
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 12:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 113448)
Saddam Hussein influencing metals and equities markets...?
Senor Hussein, a brutal dictator and murderer, is simply Another Manuel Noriega with really bad timing--also in the wrong part of the world. "At the end of the day", this foul beast possessed NO WMD, had NO part in attacking the US and NO plans to attack the US or her proxy, Israel. Good riddance but, the Thought of his capture having any effect on metals or equities markets is patently absurd.
Mr Gresham
(12/14/2003; 12:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 113449)
Predictions
C.M. -- yes, we wouldn't be the World Power if just about everything that went on wasn't part of one of our scenarios(and the intelligence agencies wouldn't be doing THEIR jobs) -- just about ANY dictator who is in is at least staying out of our sights, if not following our script.

Markets will do what -- what the players think the other players think the -- markets will do...

And with a significant number of players believing that the markets are manipulated by fiat liquidity, they will guess tomorrow that the scenario calls for an Up day. And so...Voila!

To get far from the maddeningly derivative crowd:

GOLD -- an anchor of integrity in a sea of sham.

specie-man
(12/14/2003; 13:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113450)
Saddam Hussein
What a deplorable in-human being. I would like to say "good riddance" as well. But that may be a bit premature. After all, he isn't actually dead yet. And although he doesn't have the mind of a genius, he may still have some tricks up his sleeve. He may already have plans in place. I can think of a couple things he could easily do to disrupt things... - I'd better not say as it might give the bad people ideas.

I hope the coalition forces continue to prceed with extreme caution.

PS:
I exect the dollar to go up and metals to go down on Monday and maybe Tuesday as well. However, this development does not change the long-term core market fundamentals (overwhelming debt and deficits everywhere).
White Rose
(12/14/2003; 14:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113451)
Financial Assets in a Financial Storm
Financial Assets in a Financial Storm

We all expect a large financial event to hit sometime between 5
minutes from now to 3 years from now. We all know the scenario: the dollar
plunges, stocks and bonds are sold, precious metals go up. That is the
easy part.

But there is so much we want to know:

Should I buy raw metal now, or buy mining stocks?
When do I cash in my silver?
What are the right financial instruments to use, and when do I switch?

We all want a guide to tell us what will happen on a day by day basis
as a massive financial crisis unfolds. No such guidebook exists. I submit
that the rules and regulations that affect different financial instruments
will massively affect to play this game. I will guess how the rules may
change and how someone could cope with these changes. This is my chance to
be a "warped Suzie Orman".


Possible Rule Changes

Bank Accounts: Accounts may be frozen (as in Argentina). Only modest
withdrawals allowed. It is possible that transfers are only allowed for
particular purposes, such as paying a mortgage, paying down credit cards,
or other approved purposes. Protection: buy precious metals, stocks, real
estate, or withdraw as cash now before the crisis hits. Protection: buy
precious metals now. Divide your accounts to a number of local banks,
making sure you have an ATM card for each account so you can milk them for
cash before a crisis, and you can withdraw the maximum (so many dollars
per month per account) once an emergency starts

Cash: Limits to cash holdings may be made more severe. I notice how
hard they are going after Rush Limbaugh for making over thirty $8,000 cash
withdrawals. This shows that they will be very strict in enforcing limits
to cash in the future. Protection: withdrawn now. Buy precious metals.
[don't keep cash in your house, bury cash in carefully sealed sections of
plastic pipes in your backyard. It you do not have a backyard, you are
living in the wrong neighborhood for a crisis.]

Municipal bonds: no need to do anything, many units of government
will go bankrupt, eliminating the value of these assets without any need
for additional governmental intervention. Protection: tricky, since there
are large haircuts for sales of these bonds now. At minimum, watch these
holdings carefully.

Treasury bonds: it is no surprise that in a financial crisis, the
stated and effective interest rates are going way up. I suspect that those
holding treasury bonds will only get a fraction of their expected value in
the long run. Protection: get out of long bonds. If you need something,
use short term treasury notes.

GSE bonds: if interest rates go up along with precious metals, then
the gold derivatives held by the GSEs will blow up in their faces. I would
expect the federal government would end up taking over the GSEs and
offering treasury bonds with poor terms as a substitute. Avoid these
bonds.

Pension Plans: The federal government may only allow sales of assets
to buy treasury bonds. (This would "promote stability in the markets").
Protection: not much is possible. Use gold funds to the extent you can
right now. Do not transfer non-pension assets into pension assets no
matter how much the financial media tells you this is a good idea.

Stocks: beware. In a real emergency, I would expect a large number of
companies to go bankrupt. This is a wonderful way of transferring assets
to the inner players. I would also expect lots of brokerage houses to go
bankrupt, making it difficult to get your hands on your shares. Expect to
get paid in treasury bonds after a three year delay. Protection: use
precious metals stocks. While it limits active trading, get your hands on
the stock certificates for the bulk of your holdings. Put those
certificates in a safe deposit box.

Safe Deposit Boxes: do not keep cash or precious metals in a safe
deposit box. That is what your backyard is for. Use them for stock
certificates and other critical papers you do not want to lose in a house
fire. Ask yourself: "Is this item something I would not mind having an IRS
agent see?" before you put it in your safe deposit box. [In 1933, it was
illegal to open your safe deposit box without an IRS agent check its
contents. Then they were looking for gold. Soon, I think they would look
for cash, gold would be a bonus.]

Precious metals: There are many ways regulations can deeply hamper
the marketplace for precious metals without resorting to outright
confiscation. I think the powers that be would be more interested in
preventing the middle class from shifting assets into precious metals than
they would be in forcing the wealthy from giving up their possessions.
Protection: buy precious metals now.

Commodity exchanges: these are rigged from the get-go. I would expect
those who are long would be required to accept a modest dollar pay out
from those who are short. Buy the real thing and avoid commodity
exchanges.

Real estate: with interest rates going up, those with marginal
financial situations and variable mortgages are screwed. Far fewer people
can afford houses with unemployment and higher interest rates. Even though
the dollar will be inflating, housing will drop in value as a huge amount
of stock will enter the market with few buyers. The really pricey houses
(now a million or more) will be hurt the most. Protection: limit your
exposure the real estate debt. Only have a mortgage on your own house. If
you have a daisy chain of rental houses, get out now, even if you have to
take a loss. If possible build up other assets to potentially exceed your
mortgage in a financial crisis.

Credit Cards: there is a lot of ways credit cards could be tinkered
with in a financial emergency. The goal would be to avoid the use of cash
in any transaction. I expect that merchant who wanted to retain credit
cards would have to certify they pay virtually none of their bills with
cash. Credit cards could be made into hybrid debit cards, with automatic
payments based from your bank accounts. There would be no cash advances,
and no international transactions. Since I would expect employers would be
required to make automatic transfers into bank accounts, which in turn
would automatically pay down credit card balances (and mortgage balances),
and the credit cards would only be allowed for authorized merchants. Thus
the financial brotherhood/federal government would totally control all
aspects of the financial life of the average citizen. Protection: have
multiple credit cards with zero balances at the end of the month. Develop
frugal living habits. Get in the habit of storing food and other
necessities rather than depend on a federal feeding trough.

Insurance policies: I would expect that many, many insurance
companies would go bankrupt in a financial emergency. These fast
reservoirs of capital will be sucked dry by the financial vampires.
Protection: elist your neighbors and others to work together to keep your
community going in an emergency. Mentally prepare yourself for not
depending on any corporation no matter what promises they make in their TV
commercials.

Employment: expect severe penalties for being part of the cash
"underground economy". Jobs will be hard to find. Good luck.

Debt: avoid debt. While it may seem easy to pay off debt with
inflating dollars, the asset you are buying may be dropping in value. You
also need a stream of income to make the payments which may make it hard
to make regular payments. Expect the penalty of missed payments to be
severe.

Inflation: the economy will learn to live with hyperinflation. By
keeping most transactions electronic, America will avoid the expense of
printing new money all the time with more zeros on them (a reference
Germany's post World War I hyperinflation). The tale is told of a bellboy
who got a tip of a gold coin (presumably a quarter ounce coin, such as is
sold by our hosts). Later, during the hyperinflation, he bought the hotel
with the same coin. Some sectors (manufacturing, farming) do well under
inflation. Other sectors (finance and the assets of the middle class) will
be wiped out.


Model Asset Allocation

3% cash
12% bank accounts (but do not exceed $100,000)
30% gold in your possession
15% other precious metals in your possession
20% precious metals stock (if you are a high asset indivdual, you
might shift some from physical to stocks)
20% other assets you need to conduct your life without looking like a
survivalist.


I welcome comments. I wonder what Suzie Orman would say if she were free to
comment on the current situation.
misetich
(12/14/2003; 14:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113452)
And You Thought Pension Funds Were Scary
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/business/yourmoney/14watch.htmlSnip:

UNDERFUNDED pension plans rank high on investors' fright lists, but now comes another specter: post-employment health plans. At some major companies, they are in even more dire shape than pensions.

Only an estimated 5 percent of American companies offer such health plans, according to the Labor Department. But many that do, like Ford Motor, I.B.M., and Merck, are large companies whose stocks are widely held by investors.

From the 1950's through the 1970's, a number of industrial companies agreed to pay for their employees' health care after they retired. Now that bill is starting to come due.

And, oh, what a bill it is. Current company estimates for health care costs put their obligations at $284 billion, according to Glass, Lewis & Company, an institutional research firm in San Francisco. It studied 213 large companies offering post-retirement health care coverage.
........................

Among the companies that have underfunded health care obligations in the next five years, Glass, Lewis said, are SBC, Verizon, Boeing, Goodyear, General Motors, Delphi and Ford. Only two in the study - Curtiss-Wright and Procter & Gamble - have overfunded post-employment health plans.

"Either the corporations are going to have to pay it, or the government will, which is the taxpayers,'' Mr. Turner said. "But as the baby boomers go into retirement, many of them are going to be getting a present which is the ugliest piece of coal you ever did see."
********************
Misetich

With the "Old News" of Saddam's reported capture over the way - lets return to our "regularly scheduled jobless economic recovery" programs

...health costs are spiralling through the rooftop as are commodities, energy prices...

General Motors apparently has switched from stocks to high risks junk bonds, foreign bonds to maintain their lofty projected pension plans returns at 9% - along with issuance of debt to avoid taking a hit on current earnings

..desperation moves ..usually backfire

Regarding Saddam's effects on gold - NONE - though a short lived rally in the US $ and SM can be anticipated for max a couple of days if not an upsurge tomorrow morning and a reversal later on the day....

Those investors that defy the laws of current trends will pay for it dearly

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 14:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 113453)
Another "dark and painful era"
Hours later, when President Bush addressed the nation, he declared that "a dark and painful era is over."

Car Bomb West of Baghdad Kills at Least 17
By EDWARD WONG

Published: December 14, 2003


HALDIYA, Iraq, Dec. 14 � Just 12 hours after Saddam Hussein was captured, a car bomb exploded outside the police station in this town 60 miles west of Baghdad, and military officials said at least 17 people were killed and 33 wounded. It was the deadliest attack on American-led forces since two police stations near Baghdad were hit with car bombs three weeks ago.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(12/14/2003; 15:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113454)
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Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 15:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 113455)
Post Employment Health Care
@ Misetich:

Richard Daughty opined this as the main motivation behind the Medicare drug bill in last week's article. From a personal perspective, I was laid off about 16 months ago and given 18 months of "Cobra" eligibility through my previous employer's plan. Unfortunately, the company went belly-up, dropping coverage for remaining employees. Once that occured, the Cobra was disconued by the insurance company, as they only have to cover ex-employees as long as they continue covering "current" employees. This was in California, so I don't know how it works in other states.
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 15:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 113456)
Suze Orman
@ White Rose:

Or perhaps, an "unwarped" Suze Orman. Her onscreen advice does more to keep the common family in debt than Target's 10% discount for new cardholders.
GoldCoaster
(12/14/2003; 16:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113457)
POG
I dont know if the POG at the other side is working 'cause I got 404.35 on my screen at the moment ,a drop of 4.60 from the opening.
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 16:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 113458)
The Saddam in captivity rally has begun...
S+P up about 13.00 on globex.
POG down $4-5.00
Catch the bottom to buy gold and catch the top to short the S+P? The former is a high percentage bet, the latter is awful risky. Is the Dow index anticipating price inflation?
Hey, a buying opportunity just in time for Christmas!
Truthcaster
(12/14/2003; 17:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 113459)
Run Spot RUN!!!
Run Spot!! They want your golden head.
Down 6$ 402.50
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 17:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113460)
SADDAM RALLY TO COINCIDE WITH SANTA CLAUS RALLY
For shame on the "financial advisor" crowdI can't wait to take their money. I love this game.
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 17:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 113461)
Saddam rally continues
Gold -6.90
Silver -12.0
Crude -1.07
Euro -0.95
S+P + 15.70
Nasdoggie +30.00
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 17:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 113462)
@R Powell
He was a real man that Saddam. He had no help, no protection; just a pistol and living on the run in a dirt hole. Probablty crapped in his brithches. Yep, that's a real victory for the good guys alright. I will sleep soundly tonight. The world is now safe for freedom. Wish we had more here....sadly...CM
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 17:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 113463)
He looks like a bum in need of a baloney sandwhich......
$750K in USD and NO Gold......what a nut!"When you see pictures of the disheveled, heavily-bearded Hussein immediately after he'd been dragged out his hiding place which one news report described a "spider hole, six-to-eight feet deep, equipped with a rudimentary ventilation system and camouflaged with bricks and dirt," you have to wonder what sort of military campaign he could have been running from somewhere like that. Certainly not a well-organized insurgency on the scale we've seen recently in Iraq."

Move over Manuel Noriega..
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 17:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 113464)
I'll probably get "scrubbed"...
but does anyone else feel like they're living a part in a Woody Allen movie?
goldquest
(12/14/2003; 17:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113465)
Don't Forget
the $750,000 in greenbacks! Probably his beer money when he got relocated to Oklahoma City! Shoulda swapped those worthless greenbacks for gold eagles.
admin
(12/14/2003; 18:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 113466)
Free Forum Discussion
Given the situation with the capture of Saddam Hussein, we've decided to open the forum to political discussion until 12 noon tomorrow. The rules still apply with respect to ad hominem and venomous attacks on fellow posters, and we will pull codes if it is violated. We've done this sort of thing with mixed results in the past. Let's not make this an experience that undermines the potential for any future episodes of free political discussion. We will still pull posts that we feel go beyond the pale.

Let the discussion begin. . . .
Cavan Man
(12/14/2003; 18:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113467)
Thanks admin...
good call....I'm out of sarcasm and cynicism for tonight. Going for a soda...CM
The Stranger
(12/14/2003; 18:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113468)
Truthcaster's Query
That man hiding in a rat hole near Tikrit was never the thinking man's rationale for owning gold. The growing demand for precious metals is happening because the calculus for a stable dollar isn't there anymore, and it won't be for some time to come.

Remember, the seeds for every major market move are sown by the move preceding. In this case, confidence in the dollar led to overvaluation, which led to a deficit in America's balance of trade, which led to a decline in American manufacturing, which led to a relative loss of tax revenue to the federal government, which led to a half-trillion dollar budget deficit. America's democratically elected government can either:

A) Raise taxes, (and get thrown out of office), or
B) Stop payment on the national debt, (and get thrown out of office), or
C) Create more dollars at the printing press, (and worry about the consequences later).

What do you think they will do?

Meanwhile, every so often, the gold market is given the opportunity to demonstrate that the rationale for owning gold in this decade goes way beyond concerns about current political or military instability. One such opportunity was Jan. 1, 2000 (when the world didn't come to an end). Another was the invasion of Iraq (when, again, the world didn't come to an end). Both events were followed a swoon in gold prices which proved nothing less than an outstanding buying opportunity for the well-informed investor.

The current instance is only different in that it may be even more useful for all of us who own gold. That is because, with Saddam now gone, a brief setback for gold, no matter how scarey it might seem, followed by the inevitable recovery, will inoculate us against further such events in the weeks and months ahead. In short, there will be little left to happen which can scare us.

For this reason, I would expect any decline in the gold price, as a result of the Hussein capture, to be shorter almost than you can imagine.
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 18:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 113469)
Cavan Man
I understand what you said in post 113462 but I do NOT understand why you addressed that to me?

I've said nothing whatsoever about Saddam other than to opine that his capture will probably cause the equity markets and the dollar to rally. The price of precious metals will probably fall. I view this as a temporary event.

This is my opinion of how the markets will react to his capture. I'm talking pragmatic market reactions ONLY !!
No political view whatsoever. No ethical judgement of anyone or any event, just the markets' knee-jerk reaction.
Rich
R Powell
(12/14/2003; 18:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 113470)
Hello Stranger
Stranger, good to hear from you again!

I'm glad you mentioned timing which is the hardest part of the game. I usually invest long term on fundamentals but, since a downturn in the POG was to be expected soon anyway, and I had decided to buy on the next downturn, well....

Just how short a timeframe do you envision for gold's downturn?

I was thinking maybe not more than a day or two but I've never been good at all with the timing bugaboo. I know no one can predict such things but I'd enjoy hearing your thoughts on this and the markets in general.
TIA
Rich
Tate
(12/14/2003; 18:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 113471)
Saddam Hussein capture will fix US
Saddam Hussein capture will fix US:

trade deficit
current account deficit
bring manufacturing sector back
solve unemployment
make US corporations profitable
erase Wall-Street overvaluation
stop foreigners dumping US Dollar
make Sun rise in the east and go down in the West

Anybody can add more??
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 18:31:40 MDT - Msg ID: 113472)
Tonight's movie lineup
The programmers must be working overtime. Tonight's lineup includes Demolition Man w/ Stallone, Snipes, and Bullock

"Oh John Spartan, civilization as we know it will come to end.
What'll we do?"

and Swordfish w/ Travolta and Berry

"They bomb a church, we bomb ten, they kill a few tourists, we take out a city. What self-respecting country will harbor terrorists when they see our reaction? I will sacrifice anyone, including myself to stop those who threaten our way of life."

Damn, it's great to see the world is a little freer today!

Get your sheckles ready, goldbugs, Santa is reopening the Christmas sales tomorrow! If Sinclair is on target, it's your last chance before $420.
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 18:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 113473)
Gold moves in Asian market
So far, it's bounced off of $401 and headed back up. Any buying opportunity may not even remain long enough to service the NY open. After all, how many bullion banks and commodity dealers really give a rat's behind about Saddam?
spotlight
(12/14/2003; 18:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113474)
Saddam is captured. What now?
Saddam is captured. Let the whole world cheer.

What happens now in Iraq is unpredictable. In the long run it is certainly a major plus. Short term we do not know what to expect from the opposing forces there. We can only hope that the road ahead for their people will be smoother than in the past.

As for the financial markets reaction, expectations are, the dollar will rise, gold/stocks will fall. However, one should establish firmly in his mind, Saddam, alive or dead, has no bearing on the fundamentals concerning the US tripple deficits. The deficits are the reason for the fall of the dollar and the rise in the price of gold, as well as other currencies.

Perceptions and emotions rule the markets temporarily when an event such as this occurs. Markets do, however, return to fundamentals quickly, especially when the fundamentals are as clear and strong as they are today.

Lets say an investor in gold stocks decides to sell early Monday morning. He will be in line with all the other sellers. Lets say that there is a large sell off and his $10 stock is executed at $8. The next day it drops 50 cents. The next day it rises $1.00. Most who have sold would wait one more day, just to make sure. The stock rises another $1.50. Now it costs the seller more than he got for the stock he sold to buy back his position. (Including the ask price plus commissions.)

The groups that are short over $100 million, are right now circling like sharks, waiting to be fed. They are very hungry, and ready to gobble up the delicious stocks in your portfolio. They need them badly, so badly they can't live without them. (Gist of a James Sinclair article)

Now, lets look at the positive side. The dollar rises as expected, and gold falls in step with the rise of the dollar. (Gold rose, in step with the fall of the dollar) South African gold stocks are paid in dollars, which they must convert to Rands to meet their costs of production. So. Afr. gold stocks did very badly while the Rand was strenthening, so they are underpriced vs, North American gold stocks. The Rand should therefore weaken if the dollar rises as expected. Also, there is a huge long position in the Rand. The holders of these positions are going to take a very big hit if the dollar rises as expected and may get out and stay out. The highly overvalued Rand could weaken much more than expected. If so, this would be very bullish for the mining stocks. They could continue to rise while gold merely inches its way up. Those are the probablities.

Markets are a different animal. They are, at times, prone to perceptions and emotions. This is, most probably, one of those times. This is the lot of the serious investor.

Personally, I will grin and bear the paper loss, whatever it amounts to, convinced that in the end, the Saddam event will be bullish for gold. How could it be bullish when portfolios could take a 10 15 0r 20 percent loss? (1) We do not know for sure how severe the loss will be. (2) It most probably will be very temporary. (3) The Saddam event will not be a remedy for the broken monetary system with currency devaluations and credit expansion going gung ho. (4) Those who sell may find it very costly to buy back their position.

Also, lets now look at the positive side as far as the world economy is concerned. The world celebrates by buying the stock market and our bonds. Here at home we go on a buying spree.
What are the results of these actions? Yes, the stock and bond markets go up. However, financial instituions world wide know the facts have not really changed. They take advantage of the exuberance by unloading their dollars and bonds while picking up all the gold and gold stocks on the cheap. The shorts, meanwhile have been squaring their positions getting ready to go long the gold and gold stocks.

If on the other hand world growth does kick in, we have another bullish case for gold. Capital will be needed in the hundreds of billions of dollars for all the areas of the world where growth is imminent. This kind of capital is resting in one place in the required amount. US assets. This would be T-bonds and all financial investments in the US.
If foreigners have a choice of where they want to put their capital when growth opportunities arise, they will much prefer to bring their capital home to put it to work. Especially when the rewards could be much greater. The result of this would be a rapidly falling dollar, stock and bond market and sharply rising gold and interest rates markets. We would then be in need of a new monetary sysyem fast, as the hundred trillion dollar derivatives markets threaten to collapse.

Each investor has to make up his mind regarding the amount of risk he can afford to take.
Each has his/her own comfort level. Gold insurance/protection is one thing, but if it affects your peace of mind, maybe you have too much invested. If, for example, you are going to need the money in the near future, you are probably over invested.










Raymond
(12/14/2003; 19:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 113475)
Neophyte
As a neophyte I will keep my comments brief.I have followed the Gold Forum for several years. Recently I have been spending more time here as the price of gold rises. I am going to pay closer attention and try to separate the wheat from the chaff. I feel some real money is going to be made in next couple of years and I need to be part of this drama. Tnxs to all .
misetich
(12/14/2003; 19:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 113476)
No WMDs in Iraq, says Hussein
http://afr.com/articles/2003/12/15/1071336854100.htmlSnip:

Saddam Hussein has denied he had any weapons of mass destruction and has not been very cooperative since his capture, Time magazine reported quoting a US intelligence official.

"No, of course not," Mr Hussein was quoted as saying about Iraq's alleged weapons programs, "the US dreamed them up itself to have a reason to go to war with us".

Time said in extracts of a report to be released in its latest edition tomorrow
...............

The US intelligence official said "he's not been very cooperative".

The report said Mr Hussein did not answer all the questions directly and was at times not coherent.

The transcript of interviews was full of "Saddam rhetoric type stuff," said the official.

Time said the official paraphrased some of the discussion. When asked "How are you?" said the official, Mr Hussein responded, "I am sad because my people are in bondage".

When offered a glass of water by interrogators, Mr Hussein replied, "If I drink water I will have to go to the bathroom and how can I use the bathroom when my people are in bondage?"

When asked why Iraq did not let UN weapons inspectors in if it had no weapons, Mr Hussein was quoted as replying: "We didn't want them to go into the presidential areas and intrude on our privacy."
................

Giving an account of Sunday's raid which snared Mr Hussein in a hole under a farmhouse near the northern town of Tikrit, the official said initially nothing was found.

"Then one man on the property, apparently realising the game was up, pointed out a bricked-in wall inside the basement of a small house on the property. 'Saddam is in there', he told the special forces operators," the report said.

"They couldn't get him out at first and had to dig, from either side of the hole," said the official.

"He looked like a homeless man at the bus station," said the official, who confirmed that $US750,000 ($1.02 million) in cash was found with two AK 47 machine guns and a pistol. He said there was also a briefcase that contained a letter from a Baghdad resistance leader.
**************
Misetich

President Bush was quoted as saying ""The capture of this man was crucial to the rise of a free Iraq," Bush said in a three-minute televised address from the White House. "It marks the end of the road for him, and for all who bullied and killed in his name."

Yet the Iraqi people ARE NOT FREE. The country is under occupation. A call for free elections by a leading cleric rather than US appointees is still a stumbling point for the US and its few allies

Reviewing the facts

No proof has been provided by the US and its few allies regarding the stated claims of the invasion

Iraq did not possess WMD
Iraq was not linked to terrorism of 9/11

Thus the question still remains

What were the real motives for the invastion?

Saddam was a puppet of the US during the -80's - US administration under Regan refused to act against Saddam when he allegedly used chemicals against the Kurds

Regan refused to act against Saddam as it would have been agains US bests interests

The NeoCons have declared an open agenda and its imperialistics ambitions - as they fear the dethroning of King $, thus a desperate effort for a grab of Middle East Oil Reserves

The declaration of "war" by the NeoCons against everybody and anybody that does not act in the best interests of the US is a self-destructive process

How will the Arab world react, to being forced in accepting "democracy" as being defined by foreigners to suit their own agenda? How will the Saudi's react - Iran? Are they next?

Will Russia, China, the powerhouses in EU concede to US ambitions?

The symbolic capture of Saddam will score few political points at home - yet it sets up the stage for those who oppose US led doctrine to strike back and destroy the myth that the 'war' is over.

The war on terrorism is being used/capitalized by a few with estranged ideologies.

Those that have followed these ideologies (the vast quiet majority) is paying a price.

Facts are that economic conditions in the US have deteriorated dramatically since the posture of striking first has been adopted

An exodus of billions of $ of foreign investors has left the US markets and billions more have found a different place to invest rather than the US

Whilst Saddam's capture is a celebratory occasion - the focus of reality cannot be obscured

It is hoped the US withdraw from Iraq immediately now that its monster leader has been captured. Yet everybody knows they won't.

Most believe this invasion will turn out positive for the US thus their tacit approval - yet its the biggest gamble in their history.

The future is never as one invisions - after all who would have thought 9/11 was possible?

The economic stakes are high and the tumultous times will continue Saddam or no Saddam - Laden or no Bin Laden -

Hundreds of new Saddams and Laden's are created daily - as they perceive a wrong has been perpetrated on their own -

The costs of fighting a war on terrerorism is unsusastainable - and foreigners that have been footing the bill through re-investments in US $ denominated assets will one day ask higher risk premiums

..and US cannot afford higher interest rates with the monster debt account and fragile economic system pegged to the stock market

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express






























Aragorn III
(12/14/2003; 20:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 113477)
Buying gold on Saddam capture is intuitive... or counter-intuitive?
It depends who you are.

How do you step into a gold market canoe? Very carefully! The bigger travellers must think of these details. Smartly under the cover of pricing pressure-relief of an intuitive anti-gold news day do the big ones fill their boat.

How peculiar this must seem to the little mosquito who need only think for its next feast, eager only to see it paddle past and caring not for the boarding procedure.

How will you spend this day?

gold gold?
Dollar Bill
(12/14/2003; 20:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 113478)
*>*............+
The admin has opened the forum for political discussions till tomorrow noon......
You know, learning the truth about santa and the easter bunny was disappointing, then as time went on, learning that people were incapable of being flaw free was also a bit disappointing.
Learning about extreme cruel people, saddams family included of course ! Was an unwanted discovery of how bad we can get.
Well, I guess I get used to whatever I discover about life... except you know....I cannot get used to the amount of lying that is done to me.
Lying to effect my thinking and behaviour.
We discuss the economic lying, and it is breathtaking, but the political lying, by the print media, tv, radio, educational system, the politicians, just, I dont know, I just find it intolerable.
I guess it is endurable, but it is so insulting.

Mr Gresham
(12/14/2003; 20:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 113479)
White Suze, er, Rose
Fine summary, asset class by asset class. Most of us have had several years to parse through the interrelationships among them under crisis, but there are new people, and we can always use a review. Your primer should turn into an ongoing seminar, which should be welcome here, since the answer to just about each problem turns out to be -- correctly, IMO -- the product under discussion hereabouts.

Especially original, your thoughts on the adjustments to credit card usage under a crisis economy. Can you let your crystal ball linger a bit longer in that direction, and get back to us?

"Debt: avoid debt. While it may seem easy to pay off debt with inflating dollars, the asset you are buying may be dropping in value." Good advice, only I hear Will Rogers whispering in my ear as I finish reading it.

"Buy something that will go up. If it don't go up, don't buy it," he says. And, inserted into your cogent paragraphs, Will could conclude with "See discussion above."
Goldendome
(12/14/2003; 20:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 113480)
Rich and Pizz, must be moving the market tonight !!!

Hey, are you the guys moving the Silver market?? That stuff has moved from under $5.40 an hour ago to $5.55 now! Come on now, how much you guys have to buy to make it prance like that?
Remarx
(12/14/2003; 20:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 113481)
Not about Hussein
I know everyone is excited about Hussein, but I am not going to let the news media distract me from the fundamentals. The US is going to heck in a handbasket, politically and financially. Empire is not just morally wrong, it is a bad idea in political and fiscal terms. Hussein (yes he was horrible, but with US help) will be used by the media as if he were one of Emanuel Goldstein's henchmen --in regular two minute hate sessions for the public.

That said, back to practical matters of protecting ourselves in this fubar world... I am still hoping someone has more information on transporting PMs across the border to Canada, where they can be stored in (hopefully) a safe deposit box against the possibility of future confiscation. Does anyone know if gold is simply treated as currency, or are there special requirements for declaring it?

Here is what the US Customs says about money:
---
"You may bring into or take out of the country, including by mail, as much money as you wish. But if it's more than $10,000, you'll need to report it to Customs. Ask the Customs officer for the Currency Reporting Form (CF 4790). The penalties for not complying can be quite severe.

"Money" means monetary instruments and includes U.S. or foreign coin currently in circulation, currency, traveler's checks in any form, money orders, and negotiable instruments or investment securities in bearer form."
---

Are maples and eagles considered "currently in circulation"? If not, is gold treated as something else by customs?

Cheers. -r
Goldendome
(12/14/2003; 20:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 113482)
(No Subject)
Question from Remarx: Are maples and eagles considered "currently in circulation"?
Remarx: I wish Eagles and Maple Leafs were in circulation, and that each one was spent at my Store, at face value! Being a shrewd and somewhat larcenous retailer, I would immediately replace them with paper of equivalent face value...But then, I guess they would no longer be in circulation, right? So, I guess the answer is a resounding, "NO".

I have accepted in the past, one ounce silver rounds of one sort and another as silver dollars...That works. Hey! I'm not in the bullion business, but if someone walks in and wants to spend, I'm not going to prevent them from doing it. A nicotine fit, is a terrible thing to deny!!
Cytek
(12/14/2003; 21:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 113483)
Suddam's capture will change nothing in the markets.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031214/markets_forex_5.htmlReuters
Capture of Saddam Boosts Dollar
Sunday December 14, 10:25 pm ET
By Naomi Tajitsu


TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar rose against major rivals on Monday after U.S. troops captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein over the weekend, but it lost some gains on lingering doubts about U.S. economic fundamentals.
The dollar rose as high as 108.39 yen in early Asian trade before easing to 108.03/05 yen -- up about 0.1 percent from Friday's late New York level -- by 9:50 p.m. EST Sunday.

"When you think about it, the capture doesn't really mean that terrorism will completely disappear, or erase the U.S. deficit," said Tomoko Fujii, economic and market analyst at Nikko Citigroup.

The news was a perfect excuse to buy dollars for many of those who had been short on the greenback, she added.

Dealers said the greenback's initial rally was due to views that Hussein's arrest could not only raise U.S. consumer confidence but also lessen the U.S. current account deficit and curb a rise in oil prices if it brings an end to violence in Iraq.

But while some said the capture offered a psychological boost to the beleaguered greenback, others doubted there would be any long-term effect on the market.

"The (dollar's) rise was more subdued than expected. The market was anticipating it to go even higher (against the yen) but it has stopped," said Shogo Nagaya, a manager at Nomura Trust, adding that many dealers had been expecting the greenback to break the 109 yen level.

"Basically, the impact of the news was short-lived."
Still, traders said that while arrest of Hussein could sooth some market concerns about tensions in Iraq, the dollar would continue to be stifled by ongoing geopolitical risks in the region, in addition to a festering U.S. trade deficit.

Many investors were cautious about the capture and expressed concern over the possibility of retaliatory attacks and the effects they could have on the market. Some pointed out that while Saddam was in custody, Osama bin Laden was still on the loose.

In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow's recent comment that the dollar's decline had been "orderly" remained fresh in the minds of many traders.

Snow's comments on Friday had sent the already-falling dollar lower, giving the euro the impetus to surge to new lifetime and session highs around $1.23.

"For those two reasons, there's still a sense of unease about the dollar that won't go away just with Saddam's capture," Nomura's Nagaya said.


Cytek
Tell it like it is Nomura. The dollar is still toast.
misetich
(12/14/2003; 21:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 113484)
US $ Chart and Direction
The following is a summary from a subscribed service on
the technicals of US $ index

$DXY - DOLLAR INDEX (INDEX)
Date Open High Low Last Change % Change
12/12/03 88.84 88.92 88.40 88.60 -0.30 -0.34%



Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter (TM) Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Sell

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 50% - Sell

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell

Overall Average: 80% - Sell

............................

Misetich

BUY GOLD - BUY GOLD - BUY GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express


DummyANI
(12/14/2003; 21:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 113485)
@R Powell (12/14/03; 11:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 113442)
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspHellow, R Powell I gained from jsmineset.

snip:
Sunday, December 07, 2003, 12:05:00 AM EST

1/ There are many gold funds today run by managers that have been drafted into gold shares whose hearts are really in the general equities arena. This is why Barrick has been strong lately. These newly drafted gold fund managers honestly believe that you can be short 16,000,000 ounces of gold in a bull market and it means "diddly-squat." They might be in for a shock if gold tacks on a few hundred dollars from here before that hedge is covered. Barrick has been harangued by its shareholders for years to cease hedging yet it didn't. In fact, they actually expanded it. Why all of a sudden such a change of mindset? Was it a hedging epiphany in management? You have to be kidding! It was a cash call, IMO. Only something really painful could have changed the mind of a group that had a short position in gold which was reported to be 28,000,000 ounces at its high-water mark. The next quarterly statement will reveal if I am correct. Look at the size of borrowing or draw-down on cash. Check the footnotes to its financial statements. There you will see the affect on the balance sheet due to the cash demands generated by margin free gold short positions.

end-snip:

D-ANI: 16 million oz is 498 ton,

and 28 million oz is 871 ton.

TOCOM gained very sharply. If you meet at a dip of POG, it may be a X-mas present from Jim Sinclair.

Buy a gold, sell a Yen.
Cytek
(12/14/2003; 21:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 113486)
Tomorrow's action
I believe there will be a massive Santa Rally as everything is likely to open on the highs tomorrow. The one key is short interest in "everything" out there is at an all time high. The MM's would be crazy not to open everything up on the highs by bidding up anything they want to dump.As i write this the DOW futures are up 130, NAS 26 and S&P 14.

I think all the indicies will rally in the morning only to sell off by the end of the day. So if you don't own it i wouldn't be buying anything unless of course GOLD or you are a daytrader. If the PM's sell off tomorrow, well all i can say is, it's another buying opportunity. And like many of you on this board say Gold climbs the wall of hope, meanwhile stocks climb the wall of fear. The real question you have to ask yourself, is hope being taken away or is fear being taken away?

The Stranger
(12/14/2003; 22:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 113487)
R Powell
Thanks for your remarks. I think the reaction is already over with. The lowest gold prices occurred at the opening in the Far East. That was when the compulsion to sell was the greatest.

As far as the markets in general, I am bearish on bonds and agnostic about stocks. But my greatest conviction is still with gold.
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 23:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 113488)
Silver market
@Goldendome

With the world shortages, Rich probably bought another bag of junk silver and ran the price up

(:>) Goldilox
Goldilox
(12/14/2003; 23:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 113489)
Transporting gold
@ Remarx

Save yourself the customs hassle and just buy the Leafs in Canada. Then you only need worry about Canadian and IRS capital gains reporting requirements. Also, use cashier's checks. They are ultimately traceable, but not as directly as your personal checks, and are less suspicious than ca