USAGOLD Discussion - January 2004

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

physicalman
(01/01/2004; 07:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114437)
(No Subject)
I just could not resist having the first post of the new year.
Gold (and silver) Get it soon!
Toolie
(01/01/2004; 09:00:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114438)
The Man that Corrupted Hadleyburg
http://www.boondocksnet.com/twaintexts/twain_hadleyburg01.htmlI recently found the text of one of my favorite Mark Twain short stories on the web. I hope you all find it as enjoyable as I do.

Snips: It was many years ago. Hadleyburg was the most honest and upright town in all the region round about. It had kept that reputation unsmirched during three generations, and was prouder of it than of any other of its possessions��������..
But at last, in the drift of time, Hadleyburg had the ill luck to offend a passing stranger--possibly without knowing it, certainly without caring, for Hadleyburg was sufficient unto itself, and cared not a rap for strangers or their opinions��������.
He began to form a plan at once, saying to himself "That is the thing to do--I will corrupt the town."���
The old lady was afraid of the mysterious big stranger, and was glad to see him go. But her curiosity was roused, and she went straight to the sack and brought away the paper. It began as follows:
"TO BE PUBLISHED, or, the right man sought out by private inquiry-- either will answer. This sack contains gold coin weighing a hundred and sixty pounds four ounces--"
*******************************************
-Off to walk the golden trail. Happy New Year all!
Waverider
(01/01/2004; 11:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114439)
The Pharisee's Role In Gold And The Dollar Crash
http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20editorials/2003%20Opinion%20Editorials/December/30o/The%20Pharisee%27s%20Role%20In%20Gold%20And%20The%20Dollar%20Crash%20By%20Charles%20E.%20Carlson.htm"If you were to ask your local bank VP to explain the relationship between gold and the dollar, you could expect a long and confusing answer, ending with something like this: "Nobody knows what will happen in the final analysis." Your banker's MBA or PHD degree does not equip him to understand anything as basic as what makes gold and the dollar go up and down. But the big usury-bankers (internationalists with license to print diluted money out of thin air) who own and run the Federal Reserve anti-bank and its clone anti-banks in world financial centers understand gold very well. You, too, can understand it and so can your l3-year old, if he is bright and willing. Here are a few questions: What do serial wars have to do with gold and the dollar? How is our currency diluted? What does the Federal Reserve System (FED) do? Why didn't CNN or 60 Minutes explain this? Who owns the gold?

This, Part I of GOLD: A REDISCOVERED INVESTMENT explained why logical thinking persons might buy gold now and why it made less sense to do so in past decades."

Waverider: I found this an extremely interesting and pragmatic article written from the Arab perspective and published in Al-Jazeerah.

Happy New Year All!
Belgian
(01/01/2004; 13:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114440)
2004
1/ The US$ will "weaken" further in Gold as the euro will remain "stable" in Gold.

2/ The weakening dollar (against Gold) will lose, gradually, its oil-backing from the Middle East.

3/ Euroland will offer...and the ME will demand... a stable euro-currency for reliable oil flow at stable euro-prices.

4/ The dollar will gradually bid for the euro. The POO will make the "trading-field-level".

All eyes should be pointed on the, out of sight, BIS !!!

Watch : 1/ POG in dollar AND euro. 2/ dollar-euro exchange rate. 3/ POO in dollar. The evolving new trading field level, steadily moving away from the dollar usage !
White Hills
(01/01/2004; 13:59:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114441)
Belgian
Happy new year. Always enjoy your posts and the insight they offer. I see it pretty much as you do and am betting on it by gold purchases. But, we must remember the other ingrediants in the mix, Power and Politics. It is hard to believe that the US will stand by and let the dollar crash or go down to the point our standard of living is lowered to the rest of the worlds, that would be political suicide for what ever administration and political party in power at the time. I expect that what ever is done very few will know or see it coming. Remember the Trump that the US holds in its hand, the US Military ,the premier fighting force in the world. Remember it was the US that took the dollar off of the gold standard and left the world with dollars backed by nothing but the full faith and credit of the US. Pushed to the breaking point I expect a radical solution which will surprise all but a few insiders. Isn't it always that way? White Hills
The CoinGuy
(01/01/2004; 14:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114442)
Oil Price Trend may surprise next year
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031227.woil1227/BNStory/Business/?query=opecSnippit:

Mr. Gobert of Peters & Co. said there has even been speculation that OPEC might make a formal break with valuing its oil index in U.S. currency, opting instead to use the euro. If the cartel did so, any further devaluation in the U.S. dollar would boost the price of oil, at least that of the OPEC basket. And such a development would be one of the most significant events in the energy sector in 2004, he said.

Comment: The rest of the article isn't worth the electronic digits, plenty of balloons being blown and released in this sector.

The CoinGuy

P.S. Specie - Thank you
Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 14:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114443)
Pharisee's role
@ LW

This article linked a group in Scottsdale called "We Hold These Truths", an honest money, antiwar lobby which appears to be the point of origination. I think Al Jazeera just reprinted it in sympathy to the article's conclusions.

I especially like the inference that a Gaza peasant has more respect for gold and less "trust" in currency, given his KNOWN tenuous existence.

Gold is sooooo much more understandable when one realizes that Caesar's clipped currency only benefits Caesar and bends everyone else over to pay for it.
Toolie
(01/01/2004; 15:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114444)
2004
1/ The US$ will weaken to 80$index by mid March. Hold till the end of July then descend to close the year at 65$index. Gold will appreciate slightly in Euro terms as the dollars nears 80. Below there, all currencies move into gold.

2/ Some ME oil is already being delivered for Euros. (Just a poorly formed suspicion in my mind.)

3/ Euroland will offer� and the ME will demand�. A STRONG, but inflating euro-currency for the prospect for a larger portion POO settlement.

4/ GWB looses the election. A spoiler (?) appears (JV?).

5/ The Goldbugs FINALLY whoop Hammerton! Though the ringleaders escape, across the eternal seas to the isle of swindell.
Belgian
(01/01/2004; 15:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114445)
About Gold and currencies....
Since the introduction of the euro, the only currency that can buy less and less Gold, is the US$ ! The same is true for oil. More and more dollars are needed to obtain that same barril of crude. This happens when the dollar is going, military, for the remaining oil reserves on planet earth.

Oil - Gold - euro, are walking hand in hand and are leaving the dollar behind, regardless of the "old" military-dollar-logic.

In 2004, we might gather more explicite evidence of this ongoing process. Euroland's euro goes on building its relationship with China as the US' dollar did with Japan.
Both relationships (old and new) are on oil-fundamentals.
((( Euroland/China joint space programs-Belgium designated as sole coordinator for International assistance to Iran's disaster (eartquake) aid)))

The world is moving away from the US$ without war, through the BIS as the INTERBANK Gold broker. This in a globalizing world where all economies become truly equal in production and where only the fiat exchange rates are responsible for "profits" !

All those fiat currencies are NOT competing for "Value" but for "Usage", next to the only two real assets, "oil" AND "Gold".

In 2004 it will be more important as to WHO, *** OWNS ***, the precious metal.

The BIS is (imo) responsible for the orderly decline (devaluation) of the dollar exchange rate against oil-euro-Gold, as to buy time for orderly deployment of the Big reserve currency transition. The euro's stability against Gold, for already 4 years now, is indirect evidence for the ongoing $ > � transition.

Isn't it remarkable that US'interest rates remain relatively contained (low) against the orderly slip-sliding of the dollar-reserve ? I wonder for how long the rising US stockmarket will offer deceptive refuge to the declining dollar ? The US$ losing "purchasing-power" against the 3 major assets : oil-Gold-euro (trio) without explicitely provoking "general" price-inflation for the time being.

What can the dollar do against the overmight of such a solid trio (oil-Gold-euro) as to maintain its reserve status ? As soon as the dollar rises IRs, we have evidence of throwing the towel into the ring. This might probably happen towards the end of 2004, probably coinciding with the expiry of WAG I (sept.'04) !?

specie-man
(01/01/2004; 15:48:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114446)
2004 - the key is Japan & COOPERATIVE currency devaluation
The key, as I see it, is Japan.

They are the ones currently holding back the US dollar from a collapse.

I am wondering if the US Federal Reserve and/or government has a secret deal with Japan.

If not for their net trade surplus, Japan's finances would be far worse than those of the USA. Their interest rates are at 0%. Their government debt is enormous. They are printing (borrowing) Yen like mad to purchase Dollars and strengthen the Yen relative to the Dollar. And yet, the Yen keeps trying to climb relative to the dollar. Of course, when Japan sells Yen to buy Dollars, it means that someone must be buying those Yen.

Who on Earth would be buying Yen under these conditions !!??

In other words, the Japanese government wants to sell Yen and buy Dollars. Someone else out there is selling them Dollars for Yen, and then some. Who ? And Why ?

Could it be ... SATAN !! (image the Saturday Night Live skit here). No, really, could it be the USA ?

Imagine that, a secret deal between Japan and the US for a cooperative (if not competitive) currency devaluation of both the Dollar and Yen. If you look at the price of gold in various major currencies, it has risen the most against the Dollar and the Yen (in other words, those two currencies have generally declined the most).

Japan becomes a "valve" under the control of the US Fed. the valve controls the rate of decline of the dollar.

This would be a new trick. A COOPERATIVE currency devaluation, which allows for precise control of the rate of decline. But the secret agreement is that the Dollar will decline MORE than the Yen. The fact that Japan recently made an enormous increase in the amount of Yen it will borrow for currency intervention may actually signal accelerated declines in the dollar. The Yen will decline, but the Dollar will decline more !

How long will this last ? The longer it lasts, the longer the run-up in the price of gold will last.

I suspect that this cooperative devaluation will continue (perhaps accelerate) until one of the two parties "bails". That will happen when stagflation hits highly-uncomfortable levels due to competitive/cooperative currency devaluations by major countries that are not part of the USA/Japan pact.




Clink!
(01/01/2004; 16:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114447)
A Good New Year to All !
I wish everyone here at the Table health, wealth and happiness in the coming 12 months.
C!
Belgian
(01/01/2004; 16:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114448)
@White Hills
Allow me to repeat ONE very important thing, please : Nobody...NOBODY... wishes any variant on any kind of *destruction* of the US or its military might and old partnerships !!!

But everybody wants an "horizontal" relationship and the replacement of the lost dollar-system that had to be supported and accepted for much too long. Much needs to be brought to the right proportions.

Don't rush/swing into apocalyptic doom-scenarios !!! It is absolutely in nobody's interest to force/maneuver anyone into a corner and/or provoke "radical" action(s). Transatlantic relations (US/EU) are changing but NOT disappearing !!! We simply have to get rid of the dollar-system...SYSTEM... and replace it with something much,... MUCH better...for all of us ! This takes time to swallow and make it work. Note that up until now, nobody shows any threathening signs of irresponsible behavior. And the Iraqi crisis needs a solution anyway. If only the US would accept an International solution, things would go much smoothier as to the benefit of all.

War-tired and growing Euroland will play a new and modern mediating/moderating role as a go between of world powers.
Don't underestimate the attraction of such a growing "positive" force.

Think about the coming new Free Gold Market as a the ultimate peace tool. No more destructive and exhaustive confetti wars !? More harmony and less domination. The whole Middle East problem and a lot of its derivatives can reach a lasting solution when we could solve the fast growing problem of the remaining oil reserves on our planet.
We are not going to make things better when falling into the temptation of doing stupid things.

Starting a new year with some realistic optimism ...and wishing you also a "happy" '04, WH.
Belgian
(01/01/2004; 16:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114449)
@specie-man
Don't count on Japan for anything. Japan will be brought to new proportions, because of its past (and present) dollar-alliances (since 1945) and the fast growing and irreversable, China factor. Japan has tonnes of ever growing paper-bergs...dollar-DEBT-paper !!! Japan was forced into the post WW II, US military logic. This planet CANNOT go on with the growing, almighty, dollar-DEBT-bergs, served by the most sophisticated confetti printing machines.

Simply accept that all dollar-paper and its derivatives are WORTHLESS ! It *IS* as dramatic as it sounds ! Japan's role has been reduced to a simply and practical, time-buying tool.
Later on, Japan will certainly morphe into another idendity, after the dollar lost its reserve status. One cannot support a desintegrating debt-dollar with faster and faster printing machines. Soon w'll have so much dollar-debt-paper that the rotation velocity of all this paper will decline dramatically, due to its ever growing mass.

I see no solution for the dollar-system as it exists, today.
This for as long as the *oil-Gold-euro* tandem keeps moving in lockstep.
Clink!
(01/01/2004; 16:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114450)
@ White Hills
You wrote :-
'Remember the Trump that the US holds in its hand, the US Military ,the premier fighting force in the world.'

I've been thinking about this over the past few weeks. The first point (which I remember reading at the beginning of last year but am sure is a much older quote) is that if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem will look like a nail. I think that is over-simplifying, but it leads me to the next one. Remember how the horse was made obsolete by the mechanized transport in WW1, as was the battleship by aircraft (and their carriers) in WW2. Could it be that the fact of having that 'premier fighting force' actually is becoming more of a liability than an asset, because the tool is being asked to do something for which it was not conceived. A disproportionately small number of opposition forces - whether you want to call them terrorists or nationalists or whatever - is tying down a vastly superior force because the latter is forced to wear kid gloves.

You also said :-

Pushed to the breaking point I expect a radical solution which will surprise all but a few insiders. Isn't it always that way?

Absolutely ! In fact, I find the scariest thing is when you see people in high places doing things which, on the face of it, seem to be leading to certain catastrophe for all. Now, are they really as short-sighted, or self-serving, or just plain stupid as they appear, or is it just that they are privy to facts and options that we can't even dream of ?

C!
JavaMan
(01/01/2004; 16:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114451)
(No Subject)
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/031231/sb200312313576_1.htmlHello White Hills!

Thanks for the acknowledgement last week. It's been quite a while hasn't it. Your quote: "Industry is always destroyed at the point of money creation" sounds to me like what I used to refer to as an OROsm. Now there's an intellect!

And in your msg#: 114441 you said: "It is hard to believe that the US will stand by and let the dollar crash or go down to the point our standard of living is lowered to the rest of the worlds�"

I agree, it would be hard to believe yet it appears to be happening, even as we speak.


As a follow up to my last post, msg#: 114122 it seems that maybe some of those corporations inclined to sell out the American worker in favor of cheap, overseas labor are discovering that the grass might not be so green on the other side of the fence. What they are discovering is what I would describe as the "added value" of maintaining ones own resources by running projects locally rather than exporting them overseas. The whole IS bigger than the sum of its parts.

Read the article at the link above for the latest feedback from one individuals experience. Interestingly enough, the article doesn't really give any indication of the impact of the falling dollar. Seems to me, if the loss of purchasing power of the dollar isn't factored into the findings of the article, then as far as the exportation of jobs goes, things can only get better.


And lastly, I was remiss in not saying "Thank you, Randy" regarding your email�you're a gentleman and a scholar�not many of us left!

javaman

Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 16:57:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114452)
DR Archives as benchmark for 2004
Reading the posted archives over at the Daily Reckoning gives me another indication that the only thing changing radically is the dollar; compare the current state of things to 7/11/2003.

snippit:

" Gold is $344. That is more than it was yesterday, but less than it was a few weeks ago. But how will it seem to us in 5 or 10 years...after Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Robert McTeer have melted down every press at the bureau of printing and engraving in their desperation to head off a Japan-style deflation?

At today's price, it takes 26 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. Investors - if they think about it at all - are inclined to think that next year, it might take 27 or 28. We pride ourselves on the elasticity of our imaginations - did we not think that George W. Bush would be a decent president? - but we cannot stretch our imaginings so far as to believe that Alan Greenspan's dollars, and the stock market itself, will rise against gold in the years ahead. The world's investors and central banks have favored stocks and dollars over the last 20 years. Now, they have plenty of them - held at basis cost far above what they are really worth. They will almost certainly be marked down...and gold marked up...before this decade is over. Our prediction: sometime in the next 10 years or so, you'll be able to buy the Dow for just one ounce of gold. Our advice: buy gold any time the price drops below $350. Then, when it rises above $350, buy more."

Goldllox:

Today's DOW of 10453 can be purchased with 25 Oz of "real money", so gold has outpaced the DOW, but only a little so far. More obvious is the fact that buying the DOW, gold, euros, pork bellies or pistol futures has protected US$ assets from the dollar's fall, but rendered no inherent growth as measured against any other benchmark.

As the rubberbands powering the US economic recovery stretch and tighten, look for 2004 to open the gap between buying just "anything" to protect assets, and buying the "right" thing to protect assets.

My Prediction:

DOW starts the year worth 25 Oz gold and finishes at 15 Oz., with the steepest part of the slide toward the November elections and beyond.

Does that mean
DOW 7500 vs. Gold $500?
DOW 12000 vs. Gold $800?
DOW 15000 vs. gold $1000?

It doesn't really matter to one who properly weights investments . . . the ratio is much more indicative of value.

The latter of the three may be more probable as Dubya, AG, et al, continue to enable dollar erosion with their "paper covers rock" philosophy. Their deluge of paper is bound to meet its destruction in the "scissors" of price inflation, insuring that gold will definitely buy bigger baskets of things - particularly anything paper-connected. I wouldn't want to be in the wallpaper industry in the coming years, as the competition to supply "decor" will be fierce.

Got gold, your PM insurance policy? The window is closing!
Melting Pot
(01/01/2004; 17:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114453)
Japan Sold 2.25 Trillion Yen From Nov. 27 to Dec. 26
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=amhgVwUEp_cU&refer=japanImagine that, a secret deal between Japan and the US for a cooperative (if not competitive) currency devaluation of both the Dollar and Yen. If you look at the price of gold in various major currencies, it has risen the most against the Dollar and the Yen (in other words, those two currencies have generally declined the most).

Japan becomes a "valve" under the control of the US Fed. the valve controls the rate of decline of the dollar. --specie-man (1/1/04; 15:48:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114446)

Japan Sold 2.25 Trillion Yen from Nov. 27 to Dec. 26. Next check out "The Debt To the Penny:"

12/30/2003 $6,915,186,083,875.25

12/29/2003 $6,916,516,664,113.52
12/26/2003 $6,915,121,384,308.12
12/24/2003 $6,927,206,071,138.91
12/23/2003 $6,930,329,859,205.35
12/22/2003 $6,923,902,827,390.09
12/19/2003 $6,921,782,749,480.24
12/18/2003 $6,922,308,687,684.80
12/17/2003 $6,932,242,837,786.48
12/16/2003 $6,937,495,551,032.68
12/15/2003 $6,935,737,372,166.94
12/12/2003 $6,939,710,592,770.24
12/11/2003 $6,939,621,502,947.36
12/10/2003 $6,936,475,127,245.87
12/09/2003 $6,940,395,230,585.36
12/08/2003 $6,940,376,825,298.36
12/05/2003 $6,937,966,948,177.28
12/04/2003 $6,939,572,558,142.72
12/03/2003 $6,936,234,103,128.50
12/02/2003 $6,918,260,082,500.99
12/01/2003 $6,914,406,243,287.65

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE PUBLIC DEBT
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

specie-man I think your onto something.....when comparing the public debt to yen intervention!

Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 17:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114454)
"Added Value"
@ JavaMan, Belgian

Your post -

"As a follow up to my last post, msg#: 114122 it seems that maybe some of those corporations inclined to sell out the American worker in favor of cheap, overseas labor are discovering that the grass might not be so green on the other side of the fence. What they are discovering is what I would describe as the "added value" of maintaining ones own resources by running projects locally rather than exporting them overseas. The whole IS bigger than the sum of its parts."

- gave me thought about added incumberances in addition to added value. Expansionist history is filled with third world economies deciding they no longer cared to have "their" industry controlled by outside investors. British textile manufacture was exported to colonies with resulting trade wars and cecessions. Nationalization of petro-chemical and mining resources in the Mideast and South American "colonies" - a large part of the motivations for WWI, WWII, and the mostly unpublicized South American holocausts in the 20th century.

In order to accomplish Belgian's view of a tempered "horizontalization", the perceived master/slave relationship that has been perpetuated in the rule of capital over resources will have to equalize, hopefully non-violently. Wars have always been about "CONTROL", usually capital and market control. The US worker is becoming angry about the mess left in his lap. Rising prices and falling employment is not a pretty picture from the "main street" perspective (not Wall St.). Will the banks and corporations invest abroad, only to lose it AGAIN and demand Us taxpayer bailout?

As a f'rinstance, if China builds a magnificent manufacturing machine on foreign capital and decides a larger proportion should belong to "the people" (not unlikely in a Communist state), will we witness another annexation and debt default to accomplish this shift, or as Belgian says, can it be done in a controlled, peaceable flow?

The last century witnessed the political fall of large nationalistic and socialistic enterprises, only to be replaced with, in many ways, similar political bodies. After defeating Nazi Germany, Fascist Japan, and Communist USSR, the Anglo-US "military-industrial" socialism has expanded to attempt mastery of the global economy. The mostly socialist Euro Union and Communist China are the rising socio-economic alternatives.

Not much has really changed, but the names have evolved. Free enterprise is only a figure of speech, as governments continue to meddle in all forms of trade, and banks continue to meddle in all forms of government.

Just where does the impetus for change originate in the hope for tempered "horizontalization"?
specie-man
(01/01/2004; 18:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114455)
@Belgian
I think we are saying similar things. For now, Japan can be counted on to do the Fed's bidding and help the Dollar and Yen fall together in a controlled manner.

But that won't always be the case.
a nation of one
(01/01/2004; 19:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114456)
pog

I think we may have seen the last of 375.
steady
(01/01/2004; 20:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114457)
ECOism----------/ time
http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20editorials/2003%20Opinion%20Editorials/December/30o/The%20Pharisee's%20Role%20In%20Gold%20And%20The%20Dollar%20Crash%20By%20Charles%20E.%20Carlson.htmtime is on ecoism side. now dig this,
since ecoism is really an individual deciding what to do with there time and how they preserve what they created in a certin period of time, its easy to see why time is on ecoism side. with each passing second it becomes apparant that obtaining non taxed property that retains value thru time is the so called e ticket ( rember the e ticket back at the original disney land, yep that e tickit) cause what is happening is that at some point each individual on this planet will have to decide what money is for themselvs. some may think that that event has allready happend and is a moot point, but as illistrated by the reintroduction of the dinar others have opposing viewpoints. the above linked article showing an atricle printed in a newspaper demonstrtes that yes ecoism is alive and spreading. well i can here the naysayers now so what the majority of the masses are illiterate and have very little resources to have any negative effect upon the bankers. but thats the beauty of ecoism its spread by teaching and having each individual think it through for themselvs to come to there conclusion. the key will be those who are literate to be able to demonstrate it to those who are not, not necessarily in words but with obects as well. Personally i think that those who try to understand the current planetary monetary system will conclude that..... gold and silver
. honest money for
. honest people
is the best policy.
another reason time is on ecoisms side is that once understood and grasped it almost becomes perpetual as each succesive generation fills in the previous one about understanding money/ property/ fiat script and currency, something this planets current monetary system almost wiped out, and probably would have if the grand experiment would have lasted another generation. so it becomes a perpetuary type of thing.

yall got time to add time as a plank on ecoism platfom where it joins integrity and a reflection but not a mirror image of mercantilism and nationalism, honesty and uh um i forgot dam guess i best start keeping track of whats on that platform before it dun tumpbles over!
ECOism ---- changing the worlds monetary system one mind at a time!
Dollar Bill
(01/01/2004; 20:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114458)
*>*
"...for months mortgage firms have offered 0% down mortgages....to perpetuate the necessary levels of credit creation to ensure its own survival. This is just the next higher rung of absurdities. They are all signs of the top, until they aren't. The high levels of ARM's as a % of total mortgage originations is another top sign. Until it's not. Who knows what new insanities await us reasonable human beings (aka bears) in 2004?
1. Next 0 housing payments for 5 years , then 0 housing payments for 10 years......0 payments on evrything until 5 years, 0 payements on everything untill 10 years....?"


Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 20:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114459)
Sinclair's latest Editorial
snippit:

"As the Euro Spins

When we spoke about the Euro at 1.23 with a high side of 1.28-1.30, the naysayers came out in opposition to your faithful servant, Jim Sinclair. You have to love the Euro value spin that is now being produced for political reasons. Here it is. Ms. Talking Head said: "I have calculated the Euro model and back tested it thereby discovering that in the last major currency adjustment, rates of 1.75 to the dollar existed. Therefore my prediction for the Euro to settle down around 1.35 in 2004 is conservative."

How about we expand on that a little. Jim Sinclair says:� I have looked at a long term chart on gold and discovered that when the Euro Model you mention was hypothetically at 1.75 to the dollar, the gold price was $887.50. Therefore, I expect to see gold trade at $684.60 when the Euro trades at 1.35."

Goldilox:

Basing his calculations on the spin of finance-TV hype, Jim says shorting the dollar is "downright patriotic", as it seems the "orderly decline" is in the "plan" for hyping US exports. As for his prediction, I'm not sure I follow his math, but I'm all for it.

Got gold?
Dollar Bill
(01/01/2004; 20:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114460)
*>*
2003 Summary

1 Year Return
S&P 500 28.7%
Nasdaq 50.8
Dow 28.3
Russell 2000 47.3
Morgan Stanley
High Tech 66.0
Morgan Stanley
Consumer Index 13.3
Banks 34.4
Brokers 60.4
Internets 78.9
Gold Bug Index 68.6


12/31/03 12/31/02 Change
10-Year Treasury 4.25% 3.81% 44 bps
2-Year Treasury 1.82% 1.60% 22 bps
Dollar Index 86.7 101.85 -14.9%
Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 20:56:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114461)
Almanacs the tool of the terrorist trade
snippit:

In a bulletin sent Christmas Eve to about 18,000 police organizations, the FBI said terrorists may use almanacs "to assist with target selection and pre-operational planning."

It urged officers to watch during searches, traffic stops and other investigations for anyone carrying almanacs, especially if the books are annotated in suspicious ways.

"The practice of researching potential targets is consistent with known methods of al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations that seek to maximize the likelihood of operational success through careful planning," the FBI wrote.

The Associated Press obtained a copy of the bulletin this week and verified its authenticity.

The FBI noted that use of almanacs or maps may be innocent, "the product of legitimate recreational or commercial activities." But it warned that when combined with suspicious behavior-- such as apparent surveillance-- a person with an almanac "may point to possible terrorist planning."

Goldilox:

Your TAX dollars at work! What minnow-brain wrote this release? tip from the Farmer's Almanac: Plant your corn early (and place some gold in the furrow???
mikal
(01/01/2004; 22:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114462)
@Goldilox
http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=2716Thanks for the heads up. When I read that story earlier today all I could think of was these poor tourists who risk life and limb to sneak in for peek of our great nation and now have to worry about being turned in as TERRORISTS. Just for stopping to look at a map in an almanac or staring too long at landmarks.


Mexican Diplomat Charged With Helping Smuggle Arabs Into U.S.
by Terence P. Jeffrey
Posted Dec 31, 2003 -Excerpt:
"The real life horror story that began eighteen months ago when an Arab illegal alien named Youseff Balaghi showed up at a San Diego hospital, dying from what the Border Patrol initially�and erroneously�feared was radiation sickness, has now reached high into Mexico's foreign service.
On Sept. 11, 2001, Imelda Ortiz Abdala was Mexico's consul in Lebanon. On Nov. 12, 2003, Mexican authorities arrested her, according to the Associated Press, "on charges of helping a smuggling ring move Arab migrants into the United States from Mexico." The AP said Mexico had also arrested "alleged ring leader Salim Boughader Mucharafille." Boughader earlier pleaded guilty in the U.S. to the smuggling incident that resulted in Balaghi's death. Unfortunately, this story is not over."
Goldilox
(01/01/2004; 23:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114463)
Almanacs and maps?
I wonder if everyone who rents a car and exercises the GPS option is suspect? I remember one time I rented in Detroit and was ecstatic to get GPS. The below ground level freeway in Detroit makes it impossible to ever know where you are in relationship to anything important like, say, EDS, or GM, or the Silverdome. None are visible from the freeway.
physicalman
(01/02/2004; 00:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114465)
Interesting read
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031231-022848-9155r Just one possible future for this once great land
Waverider
(01/02/2004; 01:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114466)
The return of gold
http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=27&story=31143"Why has the price of gold risen by 20 per cent in 2003, and why is it poised to breach an eight-year high? Simply put, gold has gained in lustre with every drop in the value of the dollar against other currencies. Gold is, after all, as much an international currency as the dollar. But there's another, more fundamental reason for the added sheen on gold. That reason lies in the reflation policy pursued by the world's central banks, which have released a flood of money into the markets and lowered interest rates dramatically...But apart from these superficial reasons, there's a real message that the rising gold prices are conveying to the world � the dollar will have to fall much more before global economic imbalances are redressed. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that the process will be smooth, which is why gold has once again assumed its function as a safe haven for investors."
Spartacus
(01/02/2004; 02:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114467)
Belgian (1/1/04; 15:37:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 114445)

"As soon as the dollar rises IRs, we have evidence of throwing the towel into the ring."

Could You perhaps explain more on this subject...
Belgian
(01/02/2004; 04:48:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114468)
@Spartacus
IR (interest rates) have become a very complicated and extremely confusing, thing. The many different parameters, that determine the IRs, do change (alter) dramatically in importance in time. The present 45 year low IRs must be seen in the framework of dollar-defense, including the Japanese zero-rates as dollar ally. The ECB has been relatively accomodative, so far (dollar-support).

If and when, IRs on the dollar go out of the FED's control, I dare to conclude that the dollar defense dam has been broken. Rising $-IRs are a disaster for all dollar-paper-debt (bondprices crashing). A general outbreak of price-hyper-inflation. Crashing stock markets. Higher IRs on the debtbergs, mean faster and bigger $-confetti growth.

The extremely low and contained IRs of today, do help the *orderly* devaluation of the dollar (26% against the euro-65% against Gold).
Once IRs should start rising "abruptly" (emphasis on abruptly), market forces are breaking the FED coerced discipline. There will be dollar-panic.
Abandon the dollar ship !

It happened during the pr�mature hyper-inflation run in the eighties. IRs of 14% > 16% and a dollar-crash against Gold (850$/Oz) and a stock market going nowhere. That was a great lesson . Today, the dollar devalues orderly thanks to a rising stock market and hibernated IRs. But it is still about that same old dollar-wine (dollar devaluation), but in new bags.

In general...in a Free market..., rising IRs, are the clearest sign of distrust in the underlying (weakening) currency. But IRs have become 100% "political" for no other reason than the intrinsic worthlessness of the fiat confetti, being nothing else than a trade-numeraire, rather than an indication of one's wealth . When politics (FED) leave the IRs to the market forces...I conclude that the political backers of the dollar currency are giving up on the dollar defense and throw the towel in the ring.

IR-sentiment will (imo) change when the 10 yr UST pierces through the 6%.

A big question remains about the real purposes of the political management of IRs : Is it a monetary thing or an economical one ? Are IRs affecting your currency or/and your economy !? I stick to the IR-dollar(devaluation) link.
A devaluation against the asset-trio with the so called "dormant" price-inflation. Rising (spiking) IRs are going to change the general perceptions on the dollar currency.

New (possible) rate cuts and further dollar exch. rate decline in '04, are further confirmation of the dollar-debt-driven, political economy that, cost what it may cost, must be kept afloat. How will a stagnant economy affect the dollar's worth ? In a stagnant global economy, dollar-debt, weights heavier and heavier, even with low IRs. It is all in that notion of "debt-driven" economy, that the dollar is entangled. I conclude that, if things stay what they are, we cannot afford any rise in IRs, economically and monetarelly. That's why a rise in IRs, NOW, would be a very significant signal.


Spartacus
(01/02/2004; 07:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114472)
@ Belgian (1/2/04; 04:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 114468)

Ok, are You saying that, when the bondmarket has had enough and therefore market rates starts to rise in earnest and the FED can / will not hike the fed funds rate, the US dollar will decline substantially and eventually lose its reserve status.
Goldilox
(01/02/2004; 08:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114473)
$ down, gold down
$ @ 86.56, gold @ $414.7

Is this an effort by traders to suggest that they are NOT coupled, or am I just spooked by all the different messages that attempt to link every move?
Belgian
(01/02/2004; 09:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114474)
@Spartacus
No Sir, the dollar will lose its reserve-status only if the (euro) alternative is fully ready for the dollar replacement. The dollar (1,26) can (and most probably will) go lower than the 1995 low (1,40) without necessary losing its reserve status. Abruptly rising $-IRs will signal that we are relatively close to the probable $>� transition. FED and ECB still do coordinate their dollar-support efforts as to buy time for the dollar and the euro as well. The cooperation (rivalry) between IMF and BIS are much more difficult to guess.

Operative
(01/02/2004; 09:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114475)
Citigroup Top Underwriter of Record $4.938 Trillion Global Debt
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAKWRLBYOD.htmlCitigroup Top Underwriter of Record $4.938 Trillion Global Debt

Snip:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) - Low interest rates and a recovering economy fueled a record $4.938 trillion in global private-sector bond sales for 2003.
The figure, released Wednesday by Thomson Financial Securities Data, includes issuance of corporate debt, federal agency debt, taxable municipal bonds, debt backed by mortgages and debt backed by assets such as credit card receivables and home equity loans.
By comparison, issuance in 2002 totaled $3.938 trillion, according to Thomson. In 1990, global private sector debt issuance stood at just over $500 billion, or about one-tenth of this year's level.
Nearly 60 percent of the total debt sold in 2003 was issued by companies located in the Americas."

Comment: Hope all those bankers keep thier super Cray computers tweaked to keep up with all of this. As for me, I am still trying to comprehend what a trillion is.
Goldilox
(01/02/2004; 09:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114476)
Forbidden Retirement - new form of conscription
snippit:

"Chief Warrant Officer Ronald Eagle, an expert on enemy targeting, served 20 years in the military -- 10 years of active duty in the Air Force, another 10 in the West Virginia National Guard. Then he decided enough was enough. He owned a promising new aircraft-maintenance business, and it needed his attention. His retirement date was set for last February.

Staff Sgt. Justin Fontaine, a generator mechanic, enrolled in the Massachusetts National Guard out of high school and served nearly nine years. In preparation for his exit date last March, he turned in his field gear -- his rucksack and web belt, his uniforms and canteen.

Staff Sgt. Peter G. Costas, an interrogator in an intelligence unit, joined the Army Reserve in 1991, extended his enlistment in 1999 and then re-upped for three years in 2000. Costas, a U.S. Border Patrol officer in Texas, was due to retire from the reserves in last May.

According to their contracts, expectations and desires, all three soldiers should have been civilians by now. But Fontaine and Costas are currently serving in Iraq, and Eagle has just been deployed. On their Army paychecks, the expiration date of their military service is now listed sometime after 2030 -- the payroll computer's way of saying, 'Who knows?'"

Goldilox:

Once signed, reservists are finding there's no way out - EVER. Another great idea in 2003 was "fast track citizenship" for illegal immigrant fighters. Shades of Rome? Free citizenship for conquered soldiers who switch allegiances to help conquer new foreign lands.

Many reservists who went to Iraq with high expectations of a quick "police action" are becoming disillusioned by the growing Viet-Nam-like experience in Iraq. This makes it harder to replace them as they come home and share their experiences with their peers.

Shanti
(01/02/2004; 09:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114477)
ECB holding now 20% GOLD
http://www.ecb.int/stats/reserves/reserves.htm#tab
To all : Best wishes, good health and a prosperious 2004 !

Noticed that ECB holds now 20% GOLD & GOLD instruments in their reserve portefolio. They started with only 15%....

Briliant posting on IR's Sir Belgian !

Sal-OM All !!
Shanti




DryWasher
(01/02/2004; 09:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114478)
Arnold Declares Fiscal Crisis in California
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/02/politics/main591108.shtml

Snips:
"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared Thursday the state faces a fiscal crisis and ordered payments to cities and counties without legislative approval."

"Democrats spent Thursday morning meeting behind closed doors to consider their response."

DryWasher Comment:

The spending and finger pointing continues in California. Both Democrats and Republicans are counting on the voters to bail them out by approving a $15 billion bond and new spending limits package which is to be on the March ballot. This will be a big news issue in the next few months.

I expect the Federal Government to ultimately decide that California is too big to allow it to fail and will in some way save them by creating the needed money out of thin air just as is done to finance the federal overspending. And what about the other 49 states?

More sound reasons to protect your savings by holding them in physical Gold.
Operative
(01/02/2004; 09:58:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114479)
December Manufacturing ISM Report
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB012004.htmThe link provides a little more depth to the CNBC cheerleaders hawking of the great number today. Some notables to be found are:
* Prices continue to increase. (Hey, I thought there was no inflation!)
* Photographic equipment demand increases. ( Why is Kodak stock in the slumps then?) ( OH, it must be all the spy cameras that Homeland in installing.)
* Corrogated Cardboard is down! ( Lets see, companies improving profits of all these increased orders by not packaging them before shipment?)

Based on the lackluster holiday season sales, my guess is that increases are due to: DoD orders, rebuilding of Iraq, Homeland Security budgets, and the 3.7 million my local govt spent on paving 1 mile of highway just down the road. Took about 3 months to do this....tell me about those productivity figures again!!
MK
(01/02/2004; 10:12:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114480)
News & Views Updated
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlBreaking News!

Gold Defies 2003 Expectations, Hits Record (FT)
Year End Chart AU
Top Gold Stories for Friday, January 2, 2004

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.
Operative
(01/02/2004; 10:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114481)
THE US DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR 2004Q1
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/105754/content.asp?menu=forecasts&banner=fxcm10THE US DOLLAR OUTLOOK FOR 2004Q1
Snip:
In recent months, the decline in the US dollar has been hitting the headlines of all major financial publications. Since the beginning of this year, the trade weighted dollar index has fallen over 14%, while declining 20% against the euro. Based upon both technical and fundamental analysis, the collapse in the dollar is expected to continue. However, the dollar's weakness against currencies such as the EURUSD, are at very extreme levels, suggesting that a need for a meaningful correction cannot be overstated. This implies that volatility will be the theme in the first quarter of 2004.

What we have seen in 2004 is that a rebounding economy does not necessarily translate into a strengthening dollar. A widening current account deficit that is funded primarily by foreign central banks will continue to exert downward pressure on the US dollar. Before elaborating on the outlook for the US dollar, we will first recap the forces that pushed the dollar lower throughout 2003.


Comment: Worthy of a cup of coffee since not much else appears to be happening today.
Goldilox
(01/02/2004; 11:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114482)
More borrowers turn to ARMs
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0102arms02.htmlsnippit:

Thomas A. Fogarty
USA Today
Jan. 2, 2004 12:00 AM

"Adjustable-rate mortgages are thriving these days even as interest rates remain low. Normally, borrowers gravitate to ARMs in large numbers when interest rates start upward, or remain persistently high. Following form, a spike in interest rates last summer sparked the latest move to ARMs. What's unusual: The proportion of ARM borrowers remains high today even though the 30-year fixed rate has been close to 6 percent since August.

Goldilox:

The US homebuyer flocks to the lowest rate to get the most house for the least out-of-pocket money. All the hoopla about "no inflation" is having its desired effect, as folks continue to bet their future against potential for rising rates. The double whammy of rising costs and falling income is going to shock a lot of mainstream news junkies.

These folks are going to be hopping mad and looking desperately for scapegoats. Get OUT of debt, store food, water and PMs.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/02/2004; 12:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114484)
An Invitation to Prospective Clients....
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Mr Gresham
(01/02/2004; 12:16:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114485)
MK
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlThat chart that pops up on your news page looks like a big, toothy smile to me.

(Now, that's probably because I had all that corrective, ah, "dental" work done way down in the middle of it. Seemed expensive at the time...but now, I'M grinning!)

Of course, to some certain others, it might seem like Jaws, coming at them with its own razor-sharp, jagged "smile" to rip them a new, uh, portfolio allocation?

Happy New Year, my friend! You deserve a good one!

(However, I shall be on watch for when you are invited onto CNBC, just as when Prince John used to invite Robin over for lunch, y'know. "Oh, just a friendly little chat...about interests we share." It can bode no good! ;-)
Kilo
(01/02/2004; 12:30:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114486)
Operative - Comprehend this........
One trillion dollars in newly printed, crisp, fresh one dollar bills, the ones that stack nicely with no wrinkles, would stretch 2 1/2 times around the circumference of the earth, or about 62,000 miles !!!!!
Cytek
(01/02/2004; 13:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114488)
@Goldilox
Good article and post. My wife is a loan officer and she is saying that the same people that she re-financed last year at all time low rates are coming back to her to re-finance again and pull more equity out of their houses and willing to get into an ARM. But she is finding the same people have run their credit cards up to the limit agian and have little or no equity to pull out of their houses ... or the same people that never had credit problems or late pays now have several late pays on their filled up credit cards. And the banks are saying NOT.

If housing values go down and a high percentage of households go into negative equity in their houses, what will the banks due? Due they want their houses, will forclosures reach an all time high. I think the next couple of years will get very interesting to say the least.
Operative
(01/02/2004; 14:06:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114489)
@ Kilo
Thank you for the graphic image of 1 Trillion. While imagining trekking over the Alps, through the jungles, and humping across the deserts for my 2 1/2 trips, I began to wonder how long before it would actually take a trillion to pay for such an excursion. No so far in the distant future maybe?
Operative
(01/02/2004; 14:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114490)
Possible Air Terror Plot Details
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/UStravel.htm#SO2Possible Air Terror Plot Details

Snip:
2 January 2004-- Amid numerous international flights being escorted by F-16's, delayed or outright cancelled, network analysts have been reviewing a number of Internet communications and images that might just contain clues to the "intended targets" of terrorists. Text posted on Internet forums by two separate sources, combined with the images below that appear on a website and accessible through the search terms "Ahlam hu Akbar" on that site found the following combination of images..."

Comment: The media seems perplexed with all the concern about recent airlines and terrorism. The above link may provide some insight into what is behind all this Homeland attention to the skies.
steady
(01/02/2004; 16:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114491)
significant ratio event
today the gold silver ratio dropped below 70 for the first time in a long time.
will gold drag silver higher or will silver move ahead on its own merits?
we will see a 71 maybe 72 ratio one more time just to make sure every ounce has been concentrated into the proper strong hand recepticals for the long march back to 1) respectability 2) monetary awarness.
heck if it was good enuf for the greeks way back when b.c then its good enuff for me now.
lets watch this ratio play unfold.
for me price is almost irrelevant( just affects how much i can get) whats important is buying on the right ratio increase and riding each decrease.. got silver?
Solomon Weaver
(01/02/2004; 16:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114492)
The end of a nice year with lots of new dollars printed
December 31, 2003
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended the year with modest gains while the Nasdaq closed lower. The total returns for the year are shown below.

1 Year Return

S&P 500 28.7%
Nasdaq 50.8
Dow 28.3
Russell 2000 47.3
Morgan Stanley High Tech 66.0
Morgan Stanley Consumer Index 13.3 Banks 34.4
Brokers 60.4
Internets 78.9
Gold Bug Index 68.6

. . .

Well, a lot of folks out there made a lot more paper dollars this year...I hope they have the forsight to convert some paper profits into tangible assets....

Can anyone on the forum offer a to expand this list by showing how the 4 precious metals did against all that paper?

Poor old Solomon

TownCrier
(01/02/2004; 17:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114493)
Central Bank Insider -- fresh copy
http://www.usagold.com/centralbank/current.htmlexcerpt:

BANKNOTES AND THE GLASS OF WATER TEST

In an effort to foil counterfeiters and promote the use of vending machines, Vietnam said on Thursday it will introduce a 500,000 dong ($32) currency note, redesign its 50,000 dong note and mint three types of coins.

Central bank governor Le Duc Thuy said the changes were designed "to make the money structure more reasonable and to better fight against counterfeits". He also said the new Australian-made polymer-based notes were more durable, dipping one specimen into a glass of water to demonstrate. "People selling vegetables and fish in the market will be very happy with this money," he said to laughter.
---
See url for more "aspects of central banking that are frequently neglected", courtesy of our friends at Central Banking Publications Ltd.

R.
21mabry
(01/02/2004; 17:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114494)
markets
Looking at the gains this year in financial markets everything was up stock,commodities,bonds.Gold was one of the best preformers along with silver.Most countries equity markets registered double digit gains some triple digit gains.To me this signals just how much liquidity there is in this world economy.It is a rising tide of money lifting all financial boats.This coming year will be a test to see who is right the austrians or the monetarists,If Greenspan can stop a global meltdown he has deafeted the economic wave cycle theories with monetary policies.21
CoBra(too)
(01/02/2004; 18:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114495)
@ Solomon Weaver
Not really answering your question - though ranting a bit - as I don't care about any relative gains - No Mo'!.

Only sorry for the J6P's falling for the same touting as in the late 90's. The fall will be the final straw "breaking the camel's back" ... Meaning the Greenspan bubbles of debt, financial assets and housing.

The tide has turned to hard assets - and the rest of the world will play along, only as seen opportune - as the producers of real "Things" had met their fate with the IMF, WB and went broke. For the wrong reasons - and what's really important for accepting IOU's, id est debt paper of paupers. Sounds harsh? It is, as it is scary!

Though, it still looks like a solid year of gains on all financial fronts. Even considering the US dollar has lost some 40% (since its high at roughly 120+ on the NDX), primarily against its main contender, the �. Solid gains on sick foundations!

A real and true Snow Job!

The Snow job of an ongoing strong dollar policy is wearing a bit thin. Even the proclaimed controlled depreciation of the dollar vs its contenders is rather resembling a free fall and the FED stands pat, having long spent their last bullet. The rest is lip service and, forgive me to say so, green-mail!

No way, we can give up the delusion of prosperity, no inflation and general economic performance in an election year. We'd rather sink the US, its economy and the rest of it into total indebtness - don't worry we're there anyway - before we'd give up our dominance of "Super Power" status. ... As we're holding the rest of the world at ransom to pay for it ... anyway ...

Hey, what a genial thought! It has been tried throughout history and always worked ... as the final catalyst to total doom.

... As we don't how this is going to end - we can only speculate and take a lead from history! Badly, may be a meliorative of financial, economic and ultimately social Armageddon in spe. A result, which I'd never want to envisage, though it seems given at this point, past any return.

The US can't honor their obligations ever, nor can anybody else - that is without hyperinflating same.

At one stage, of course, the delusions and hedonics of the system will surface, for all to see, and the rage will be on.

It will also be too late to protect the last (perceived) wealth of most, who haven't seen through this historical - though repetitive - scam as yet.

Got Gold - and don't ask about percentage gains in any (il-)Legal Tinder - cb2






MK
(01/02/2004; 19:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114496)
Thoughts!
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlSometimes I look back at these incredible exchanges just to see how they hold up over time. I am satisfied to say that they hold up extremely well. The following speaks for itself -- something worth revisiting as we start the new year. I look back at these times with a smile. It's too bad these folks have gone for the interim. Those were exciting, inspiring times. Thanks, Another and FOA, and best wishes on the New Year.

_________________________

5/3/98 USAGOLD

Dear ANOTHER & Friend of ANOTHER,
I would like to begin by thanking you for taking the time to send your thoughts. They are very interesting to say the least. As you know I too believe that the introduction of the Euro is a seminal event -- one that will change the world financial landscape. I will try to ask questions in a logical framework for my own benefit as well as perhaps to help you to construct and add to your own thinking on these matters.

I would like to start with this because it troubles me at the moment: I have been working on this euro problem for some time -- trying to make Americans more aware of what the events you so eloquently describe will mean to their financial well-being. As I am sure you are fully aware, the American media has done a very poor job on these matters of earthshaking importance. I recently read a New York Times opinion piece on the subject and was surprised to see that the word "gold" did not even appear in the text. I was interviewed for a national network radio program recently and mentioned in our conversation that I thought the introduction of the euro would be viewed by historians in the future as the most important event of the last quarter of the 20th century (not the sexual antics of our troubled president). The press is only now beginning to understand the import of these events but still they treat it with surface analysis. With that as background, let me ask my first question and it is an important one:

It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States? If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia?

Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? Isn't it true that Japan imports nearly 100% of its oil? If what you say is true about future oil payments they will be forced to their own gold backed currency along the lines of Europe, and in the process unload the dollar as unwanted, unneeded currency. All of this, needless to say, is very bad for the dollar and perhaps you are right: A new, gold-backed dollar might be the necessary result. Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS? The Swiss? The euro central banks? Who does BIS really represent? Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe?

Please speak to these issues so that we might proceed.

I do not mean to sound naive but much of this is new to me and I would like to know who the players are and where they stand vis a vis the United States.

I remain your friend,
Michael Kosares


5/5/98 USAGOLD

Dear ANOTHER, my great respect for you has just deepened further. Have a pleasant ten days and I will consider your words. Yes, we will talk over time. Thank you Mike Kosares

------------------------------------------------------------------------

5/5/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) USAGOLD QUESTIONS IN ITALICS

Mr. Kosares,
A few thoughts for you, as the questions are asked?

** It seems that both you and your friend believe that the world is splitting up into currency/trading blocks -- much as the world did for both World Wars. There has been much discussion around the world about the imposition of a NEW WORLD ORDER and international one world government. Simultaneously, we see another, opposing force at work -- regionalism, nationalism, even tribalism. What do you make of this? Is the Euro a child of the forces of the New World Order, or the forces of regionalism/nationalism/tribalism? **

Sir,
I would say, "Old World Order" to return. To understand/explain better: " A very easy way to view this "order", would be to simply say that the American Experience is reaching the end! As we know, world war two left Europe and the world economy destroyed. Many thinkers of that period thought that the world was about to enter a decades long depression as it worked to rebuild real assets lost in the conflict. It was this war that so impacted the idea of looking positively toward the future. The past ideals of building solid, enduring, long term wealth were lost in the conception of a whole generation possibly doing without! In these fertile grounds people escaped reality with the New Idea of long term debt, being held as a money asset. Yes, here was born the American Experience that comes to maturity today.

New world order, regionalism and tribalism are but modern phases that denote "group retreat to avoid paying up". The worldwide currency system is truly a reflection of an economy built from war, using the American Experience, the US$ and the debt that it represents. But, for the American dollar to continue as the representative of the global financial system, in the form of being the reserve currency, maturing generations of all countries must accept it, and the tax on real production it clearly imposes! In the very same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal!

As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the manufactures of profit!"

** Is Europe (led behind the scenes by the BIS) an opponent to the United States?**

Sir, Yes, but not in the ways of war, as it is in the feelings of "pride" and "we go our own way". The downfall of the Russia, did allow for the Euro and all that it will build. They now see the debt of the US$, as a reserve money can be escaped! As even the US citizen will leave it's own workers to die as products are purchased "overseas", how much less will the world also flee the dollar! Opponents? No, I would say they are learners of the "American Way" as they embrace the "American Idea" of a "free world market economy".

*** If so which countries are in which camp? Your associate seems to feel that Asia is split between the United States which has Japan as an ally, and Europe which has China as an ally ( a notion I found particularly intriguing). Where is Britain in this? Japan? And most importantly, the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia? **

Sir, I feel he is correct in this thought. Europe does grasp for a relationship with Asia as the US did have with the Japan. It would build a mighty economy on a foundation of oil and gold as backing for new money. As China and Arabia was once a part of the Europe economy, in a small way. They may now return with no fear of Russia. Britain? A lost nation. Japan? This one is "of the American Economy" and is to live and die by it! They will seek your Alaska oil before loss of face with gold. A dead Yen be a dead Japan.

**Along these lines, I too believe that currency movements will flow through Europe because the Euro currency will be gold backed. Where does that leave Japan with over $200 billion in dollar reserves, let alone its massive U.S. Treasuries' holding? **

Perhaps, they be like Korea? Rich in paper until the world says, "this paper, it is not good"!

***Your associate says that BIS helped China increase its gold holdings. Please tell me what the source of that information is, or is it simply a speculation on his part. ***

The BIS is the gold broker for all interbank sales/purchases. Bullion Banks are for sales to other entities. I think, at first, China was leverage against the oil producers. Then Arabia was allowed into BIS for Euro.

**One other item you might clarify for me is "Who is really behind BIS?**

Perhaps, "who control them"?

**The Swiss? Yes.

**The eurocentral banks? Yes.

**Who does BIS really represent? "old world, gold economy, as viewed thru modern eyes" or " way to move from US$ without war".

**Why was Saudi Arabia just included in BIS? answered.

**Has Saudi Arabia gone with Europe? Yes.

Sir, there is much more to this, but we talk over time, yes? I will be away for perhaps ten days. We speak again.

Thank You



MK
(01/02/2004; 19:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114497)
I should add to my previous post
that these exchanges occurred over five years ago when only a handful had even an inkling of the euro's importance, and no one in the mainstream press even bothered with these issues. These conversations occurred during the internet's infancy and gold traded mostly below the $300 level. Little did any of us know that USAGOLD would end up one of the central sites for gold owners and advocates -- and that most of what Another and FOA foresaw would become reality.......
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 19:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114498)
good ol' Arnie

Due process? Terminated!

Mr. Schwarzenegger has done what is charismatically
expedient. Many people will love him for it.

But if we call a skunk a rose, it still smells like a skunk.

His approach differs only in being less anticipated than
most. Underneath it lies what almost everyone in public
office almost always does: They declare themselves not
at fault -"I had to do it"- then they go outside either the
letter or the spirit of law, or both, disregard the authentic
needs of the people, and then they particularly ignore the
principles by which the world works. Such is the nature
of evil.

All he has done is make a cute -but no less injurious-
response to the fiduciary malfeasance of those who
preceded him in office. His action will enduringly fix
nothing. But it will perpetuate the ruse. In this way he
has made himself an after-the-fact participant.

A real solution to the budgetary problems that California
is trying to avoid experiencing would require an order of
magnitude more than that.

Such things are not found in movie scripts.

His attempt is pure Hollywood.

But no one should be surprised by this. For that is really
the area of his expertise.

A play for Washington's big bucks? Perhaps.

Will it succeed in getting those bucks? Possibly.

Will it fix the problem?

You know the answer.

The answer is gold.
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 20:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114499)
. ? .
http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=040102000681&query=Kevin+Morrison&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form
"Gold has defied expectations to record a 20 per cent gain
for the second year running as it finished 2003 near a 13-
year high. ...."

It didn't defy OUR expectations.
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 20:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114501)
pog's prospects
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/32837.html
From the article: "With gold at $412 an ounce the venerable Financial Times' Lex column last week dismissed the outlook for the yellow metal as fraught with risk and liable to a sudden large contraction in price.

The argument in a nutshell is that global financial markets are now back on track, have put three bear years behind them and that gold's recent strength is just some sort of a flash in the pan aberration. ...." End of quote.

anoo: For me, the key to understanding what is really going on here is the attitude and outlook of those the writer refers to. The first paragraph shows that the people he refers to have not done their homework and also that they probably would not know how to do it if they wanted to. Specifically: that gold is "fraught with risk" is not true; It's not certain, surely, but that's not the same as risk; Also, that gold is fraught with risk is a prejudice that reveals ignorance on the part of the speaker. Second, that "gold's recent strength is just some sort of a flash in the pan aberration," also reveals a lack of understanding about the issue. The phrase, "...just some sort...of an aberration," would not be used by someone who knows EXACTLY what sort of an aberration gold's recent strength represents. Therefore the person who said that does NOT know exactly what type of aberration it is. This is why he reaches the conclusion that he reaches. In fact though, it is not an aberration, but a knowable phenomenon. This means that he doesn't know it. We call that ignorance. That he would talk about it anyway, we call salemanship. It is not investor savvy.

Moreover, my homework rather strongly suggests that the old trading channel extending above a line drawn through the bottoms of January 2002 and April 2003, and with a top line drawn parallel to it through the high of the early part of 2003, has been clearly broken through on the upside, and is no longer in force, and it also shows that all of the upward movements since April of 2003, to mid-November 2003 have been sufficiently retraced to make possible further signifcant upward movements from here, WITHOUT any "sudden large contraction in price." The people the writer refers to simply don't understand the nature of the present bull market in gold. They might be knowledgeable of something else, but not gold. When they understand the fact that gold is stronger than they thought it was, they will start to sell it. The fact that these people -who are professional money placers- are still not in gold, constitues proof that this bull market in gold is still in its very, very early stages.

Incidently, my charting indicates that a NEW trading range is in force right now, above a line drawn through the bottoms of April 2003 and July 2003, and under a line drawn parallel to it, through the top of May 2003. This channel is narrower and more steeply inclined than the previous one. Right now its bottom is around 377, and its top is near 417. Pog therefore is now at the top of this new trading channel, and whether it breaks out on the upside, or stays within this channel, we are soon to see.
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 20:59:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114502)
clarification

"When they understand the fact that gold is stronger than they thought it was, they will start to sell it."

By this I mean that they will market it as a product by touting it to their readers or investors, so they can make commissions or aggrandize their own reputations.
Solomon Weaver
(01/02/2004; 21:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114503)
Gold and Risk
A N o O,

If you step back and consider that the speaker you quoted, when he thinks of investing in gold, is refering to a trading activity which would involve some form of paper gold such as options or futures.

Given that the dollar has lost almost 30% of its value from fairly recent tops, if I were to tell you that short selling the dollar is "fraught with risk", you could agree, perhaps, in that were the downward trend in the dollar to rather suddenly reverse itself, one might see a fairly strong reversal. Since gold has been rising mostly in dollar terms (not as much in other currencies) and since most gold paper contracts are marked in dollars, I would consider the risk of leveraged paper long gold to be similar to leveraged dollar short position...i.e. both risky.

Poor old Solomon
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 21:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114504)
to Solomon Weaver (1/2/04; 21:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114503)

Yes, I see your point.

I was not so much interested in seeing a sense in which
gold is risky (though I did see it), as in sharing what I
could see was being revealed by the sense in which the
word "risky" is not really the best word to describe what
gold is right now.
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 21:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114505)
to any

I must to bed. If replys, I'll respond tomorrow.
a nation of one
(01/02/2004; 21:42:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114506)
Solomon

The writer referred to people who were simply talking
about "gold." Physical gold -gold itself- is not very
risky at this point, in my view.
Solomon Weaver
(01/02/2004; 21:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114507)
The simplicity of gold
MK - nice to see how the words of Another were ahead of their time.

I would like to say some words to those quiet ones who come through these halls, and lurk, and listen...and some who post......

There is a very simple thing about gold that is actually hard to understand...but unless one gets it, one is always worried about the "value".

An ounce of gold is simply worth an ounce of gold.

An ounce of silver is simply worth an ounce of silver.

The "value" of gold is so powerful that the Euro architects actually chose to once again to use it in their reserves in a formal way.

Another thing which is a bit humbling....there are still nations today where the per capita GDP equates to about 1 ounce of gold.

I believe MK has a story to tell about a couple who had come from Vietnam with a life savings they could hold in the palm of their hand.

All of us here spend many hours of enjoyment, pondering and learning about, and following the daily events of macroeconomic news, currency trading, gold price fluctuations etc. And of course, since most of us might roughly know the ounces we own, we will occassionally do a mental "mark to market" analysis of the "value" of our gold. And, we can get quite excited when gold makes a really nice run upwards...and dissappointed when it falls.

But in the end, all of this talk and analysis is simply an ongoing rationalization to keep up confidence in the simple choice we make to be gold owners.....

I have to admit, I find the action here on this and other good investment news sites to be much more exciting than an envelope with another gold coin in it......although it is the numbers of those coins which may determine the resources I and my wife will have to send our children to decent Universities and to have comfortable retirement years. So, since and ounce of gold is simply worth an ounce of gold, I look at it as one of the ultimate buy and hold opportunities....with the assurance that if someday I need my savings, the same number of ounces are at my disposal. No Central Bank will have been able to quietly take away the number of coins one has saved.

As a last note, many here know how much I like silver. I like it most because I believe that it WILL perform in tandem with gold, but will OUTPERFORM GOLD, in the mid-term. But, I would be quite happy to mark my silver to market in the amount of gold it will buy.

Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver
(01/02/2004; 22:11:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114508)
paper is risk - physical is not
A Nation of One

If you are a man of your word, you are off to bed.....so sleep well, but I will reply again to this little chain of thoughts we share.

The point I made (and I believe you agree with) is that for many in the financial world, gold is not just gold, it is some form of paper trade. As a matter of fact, the pure absurdity that most paper traders use leverage to enter into options and futures contracts for which they are not at all in a financial position to take or make delivery of the full face value of the contract, is the very source of their risk. To a paper trader, the RISK is simply that the underlying asset moves too quickly against the bet they have placed.

Another very risky business played with gold is FRACTIONAL RESERVE GOLD BANKING, which is essentially issuing two or more claims for the same physical gold.

Physical Gold is actually the exact opposite. It is essentially the least volatile of all assets. And, as I mentioned in my last post just now, the amount of physical gold cannot be eroded in quite the same way that printing press (and credit expansion) can erode the value of fiat cash or any asset which remains fairly constant in fiat price.

In some of the postings in the old days here, Another and Trail Guide have even hypothesized that the "value of paper gold" could actually fall to near zero, while the "value of physical gold" moves to the upper atmosphere. It is these opposite risk profiles which is the determinant of this....ie. either you sell me a promise or you sell me the real thing....the value of the promise falls to zero when promises to deliver the real thing cannot be kept. It is also an expression of Gresham's Law.

Poor old Solomon
Dollar Bill
(01/02/2004; 22:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114509)
*>*
http://sio.midco.net/denro/www/marketcharts.htmlThe dow utilities chart merits a look see in the link, here below is a view of how tech traders view things. Last line is revealing. Fundamentals? Company debt levels? Not an issue if the big boys decide to support at key technical points in the market. The tech traders play on technical moves period. Or, they try. If a trend is supported, underlying reality be damned, this is the disconnect between thier logic and ours. Bears mentioned here are Tech bears, not the same as perhaps your definition of bear.

"...Bears are going to have to be betting that the high late 2002 was an A wave and the bottom was a B and not a (1) and a (2). Both counts will fit on the end of this rally we have been in recently. If we correct and in deed do put a 5th wave on this rally after about a 140 point and 1000 point correction on the S&P and Dow respectively, the wise money is going to be buying the next dip, which should put in a bottom near the 9000 mark on the Dow and probably in the 850-900 area in the S&P. The S&P and Nasdaq might not make a new high, but the Dow has been rigged upward enough that an extreme new high could be possible."

Gandalf the White
(01/02/2004; 23:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114510)
This is "THE CHART" for all Goldhearts to watch next week !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dc][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GIF the 30 Year "Treasury Bond" does not REBOUND from today's close, and goes LOWER on increased volume, ---- THIS will be a MAJOR signal, (NEGATIVE) for the US economy, and GOLD will FLY !
Everyone will be soon thinking --- WHY, WHY, WHY did I not buy PHYSICAL YELLOW at that $415. level ?
Just remember who warned you !
<;-)
Goldilox
(01/02/2004; 23:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114511)
POG conversation
@ANOO and Solomon

A hearty exchange, but neither of you is really differing from the other in your conclusions. . . more in which perspective you're choosing to focus.

The original article was fraught with ignorance, as ANOO observed. Gold up 20%? Only in US$ terms . . .compared with any other benchmark, it has remained stable, exhibiting its "insurance mode" against the US$ decline. The real bull begins when gold rises against $AU, rand, Euro, $CA, etc.

Gold as a risky investment - certainly paper contracts including gold are as risky as any other cellulose - both in volatility and reliability. Physical gold is about the least risky commodity to hold. It might devalue (not very likely) but in doing so, it will reflect other (probably massive) devaluations and maintain its value much better than most.

Most "investment advisors" used to suggest 5% hard metal insurance, but lately many are suggesting 10-15%. In addition, more analysts are noticing the paper chase in PMs and commodities as lucrative speculative investments. I lean towards believing that phase II is in full throttle, complete with increased media coverage and "wall of worry" bull market reaction. Increased margins on physical and more frequent small dealer shortages of product suggest this to me, as well.

I' believe there is still much of phase II remaining, and phase III is where the real logrithmic gains should occur. At this point, we will see a shift from "some smart advisors" noticing gold to MOST advisors noticing gold. IMHO, one of the most difficult tasks for TPTB this election year will be "stretching" phase II beyond the election and preventing or misdirecting any signs of phase III initiation. Phase III will be impossible to "manage" and will NOT reflect AG or GWB in very flattering imagery.

Thanks for the awesome posts - your observations are much appreciated. Gold night and gold trading to you both.

Thank you, as well, Michael, for the awesome forum and support for credible ideas. With all the current challenges to 2nd amendment rights, and the near abandonment of public enlightenment by the media, your gift to the gold world has been incredibly refreshing.

(:> Goldilox
Spartacus
(01/03/2004; 04:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114512)
Belgian (1/2/04; 09:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114474)

Ok, got it, thanks.
a nation of one
(01/03/2004; 07:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114513)
Solomon

When posting, I tend to write about one thing at a time. I
try to avoid pumping my posts full of everything that I
know, or fill it with matters that don't pertain to the
points I am making.

I was sharing with those who are interested a certain
type of reasoning which I have found useful. I quoted a
couple of paragraphs from an article that was linked to.
Then I told what I thought they revealed. I understand
what you are saying. Your comments are not necessarily in
conflict with information in the article, or with what I
was saying.

My comments too are not in conflict with information
contained in the article, if you can see how they are not.
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 08:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114514)
FT PM Summary for 2003
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1071251863167&p=1012571727207snippit:

By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 2 2004 4:00 | Last Updated: January 2 2004 4:00

Gold has defied expectations to record a 20 per cent gain for the second year running as it finished 2003 near a 13-year high.

The metal benefited from the slide in the US dollar against major currencies, with bullion prices peaking at $417.40 a troy ounce - within 31 cents of its highest level since February 1990. Bullion settled fractionally lower at $417.25/$417.95 in London trade on Wednesday.

Strategists expect gold to continue its run this year - possibly to a 20-year high. The metal's rise last year mirrors the magnitude of the dollar's decline against the euro. Many gold investors value the metal as a currency, and see it as a safe haven in times of economic and political crisis. But it is unusual for gold to show such a strong increase when the world economy is recovering.

Gold has risen almost 70 per cent since reaching its 20-year low of $251 per ounce in August 1999, a period when the metal was shunned and unfashionable beside the then sought-after technology and internet stocks. Its attraction as an alternative investment gathered momentum last year with the launch of gold-backed investment products from the World Gold Council.

Investors bought about 23 tonnes of gold in the first three weeks of the launch of the council's listed product - Gold Bullion Securities - on the London Stock Exchange.

Analysts said this was a good start, considering that investors only bought a net 125 tonnes of metal in 2002.

Gold traders said it looked increasingly likely that gold could reach $450 in 2004, possibly going as high as $500, a level it has only broken for a few months in the past 20 years.

However, gold was outshone in 2003 by other precious metals.

Silver gained 25 per cent, hitting $6 a troy ounce for the first time since May 1998. Many attribute silver's rise to the bullish sentiment in the metals sector rather than any increase in demand.

Analysts said demand for silver had been reduced by the fall in its use for photography, one of its main industrial uses, as more photographs are taken digitally. Platinum again recorded the biggest price gain for precious metals, advancing about 35 per cent, following on from the 24 per cent gain in 2002.

Platinum ended the year at $812 a troy ounce, short of its 23-year high of $858 reached on December 18.

But platinum's dramatic price rise - it has doubled since October 2001 - is starting to hit consumers. Last year marked the first in more than a decade that global platinum jewellery demand fell.

Goldilox:

Notice how the idea of gold as "currency" was slipped into the article. Also, a noticibly good response to the London ETF was recorded, reaching almost 20% of 2002 totals in just three weeks. Also - Rich, silver recorded a 25% increase in spite of "reduced industrial demand".
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 08:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114515)
Correction
Oops, I skimmed a little too quickly.

In my observations, replace "reduced industrial demand" with "no increase in industrial demand" just to be more precise.
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 09:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114516)
Jan 2nd Random Walk - Rob Peebles
http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.aspsnippit:

There are some people,�however,�who will tell you that thanks to low interest rates, it's no big deal that the consumer has piled on debt like multiple dips of Rocky Road atop a skinny�sugar cones. Besides,�people are smarter today and�there's all that home equity just sitting there. Just wear your sunscreen and eat plenty of fiber.

Well as you can see from the red line on the chart, the part about no change in debt service is a bald-faced lie. Since the mid-�90s debt service burdens have gone up faster than Paris Hilton's notoriety, despite multiple refi booms, falling rates and general good fortune. Yes, the measure has dropped a bit over the last couple of years, but it remains in a range even the Fed might call "darn high."

And that brings us to the purple line. The numbers that make up the purple line come from the BEA's� data on personal income and outlays. If you divide personal consumption by personal income, you get a number that tells you something about the relationship between the two. The 85% number for September means that spending came to 85% of income.

And income includes a lot of stuff besides wages and salaries, for example, interest income and transfer payments. (The ratio of spending to wages and salaries, by the way,�is more like 150%.) Regardless, the purple line says that consumers are spending a larger and larger share of whatever income is. What's also unusual about the purple line is that while it fell during the recession in the early �80s, and went sideways in the �90s recession, it took off like a rocket during the latest downturn. And it's still going.

Goldilox:

Rob delivers a good analysis of consumer debt service ratios along with some light humor. Another piece of evidence that suggests only inflation can solve the massive debt problems, even at the individual level.
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 09:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114517)
Pension Funding Still a Concern
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0102pensions02.htmlsnippit:

Pension Funding Still a Concern
Depleted despite stock market gains

Mary Williams Walsh
New York Times
Jan. 2, 2004 12:00 AM

"Last year's stock market rally has added more than $100 billion to corporate America's depleted pension funds, but even that has not been enough to offset forces that continue to weaken the funds.
If all of America's 500 largest companies had to make good on their promises to workers and retirees immediately, they would have to plug a $259 billion gap in their pension funds, according to a study by Standard & Poor's that will be published soon. A year ago, even though stock prices were lower, the same companies were considerably closer to meeting their obligations, being only $212 billion short.
That is because their obligations to their workers have spiraled up at an even faster pace than stocks have risen. One obvious reason for this is that as the baby-boom generation ages, many more people are starting to claim their money. Another factor is that many pension calculations incorporate several years' worth of data, to smooth out sharp fluctuations, so the market shocks of the past three years are still working their way through the system. Finally, an otherwise positive economic development, low interest rates, is an albatross on the funds because they magnify the value of future pension obligations in today's dollars."

Goldilox:

GM's market windfalls seem to have taken the heat off of corporate pension shortfalls, but this author suggests that overall, they are in worse shape than last year.
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 09:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114518)
China and Japan battle for Russia's oil and gas
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/03/business/worldbusiness/03asia.htmlsnippit:

Japan and China Battle for Russia's Oil and Gas

Peter Blakely/Redux, for The New York Times
Vostochny has access to railroads and, with piers extending far offshore, officials expect the port to be able handle vessels up to 300,000 tons.

By JAMES BROOKE

Published: January 3, 2004
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OSTOCHNY, Russia - For now, Krylova Cape is not much to see: a spit of land between the Russian taiga forest and the Sea of Japan, its soil being graded a bit by a bright yellow bulldozer. But what is taking shape here is central to a pitched struggle between the two most important economies in Asia: the reigning titan, Japan, and its rising challenger, China.

Both economies are hungry for raw materials, especially energy - Japan because it has almost none of its own, China because its economic boom has fast outstripped what once were adequate domestic supplies. Both want to limit their dependence on oil from distant, politically volatile regions like the Middle East. And both see an attractive alternative in the little-tapped energy riches of the vast, vacant Russian Far East.

Getting oil to market from the remote East Siberian fields that Russia is ready to develop means spending billions on a pipeline. Japan and China are fighting hard over where that pipeline will go: either to China's northeastern industrial heartland, or to this stretch of Russian shoreline, where a new deep-water oil terminal will be just one day's tanker cruise from Japan.

With the choice Russia faces, the political and economic dynamics of Northeast Asia stand to be profoundly shaped for years to come.

"The Chinese will be furious if the Russians do not give them the pipeline," said Graham Hutchings, an Asian specialist with the British consulting group Oxford Analytica. And no one expects it to be the last time Japan and China collide over the resources they both need.

China has been talking to Russia about Siberian oil for a decade, and its need has grown acute. It is on a pace to overtake Japan next year as the world's second-largest oil consumer, and to catch the leader, the United States, sometime around 2030, by quintupling its current demand. Energy shortages plague the country, with 21 provinces experiencing rationing and blackouts so far this fall and winter, twice as many as last year. A Russia-China pipeline, Chinese officials say, would be a natural north-south marriage between Asia's largest oil exporter and what will soon be Asia's largest oil importer.

Japan, whose demand for oil is slowly falling because of anemic growth and a shift from manufacturing, came later to the game, making a serious alternative proposal only a year ago. But it has steadily sweetened its bid, while the financing of the Chinese plan remains fuzzy. Japan now is offering to put up $5 billion for pipeline construction and another $2 billion for oil field development, while holding out the prospect that a pipeline to the Sea of Japan could handle oil exports to America, too.

Goldilox:

With this kind of demand, I wouldn't look for oil <$30 too soon. Is this what Japan is doing with all the US$ they're buying?
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 09:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114519)
Banks feel heat in Parmalat Bond sales
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=MSKAPKH23E5M2CRBAELCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=4068067snippit:

Banks Feel Heat from Parmalat Scandal
Sat January 3, 2004 07:22 AM ET

By William Schomberg and Antonella Ciancio

MILAN, Italy (Reuters) - International banks felt the heat from the multi-billion-euro Parmalat scandal Saturday as the Securities Exchange Commission in Washington said it was investigating whether they were negligent or reckless by selling the food firm's bonds.

With Parmalat's disgraced founder Calisto Tanzi facing a new round of questioning in a Milan jail, Italian prosecutors were also focusing on the banks amid one of the world's biggest ever corporate crises.

A senior inspector from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was quoted Saturday as saying that the way Bank of America and other banks sold billions of dollars worth of Parmalat bonds was being examined.

Goldilox:

Parmalat shortfalls are approaching $10Billion euros. It's just darn hard to hide any real spending cash without some bank cooperation these days. A "Princess and the Pea" visual comes to mind, but the mattress tower might require oxygen at those elevations. Who needs a Ponzi scheme if one has a good "Tanzi" scheme? Notice, like Enron, they're searching for a hundred mil here and 200 mil there, knowing the major billions are already long gone with their tracks well covered.

Memo to prospective corporate execs: Please remember to stash enough simoleans to buy off your bankers, political supporters, lawyers, and judges if you want to have something left for your ocean-front property and blue water yacht.
Pizz
(01/03/2004; 10:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114520)
You can lead a horse to water. . . . .
1999, 2000, 2001 were some pretty good years for big ticket items. Low rates, easy credit, plenty of supply. No one really paid too much attention to the fact that the business cycle had been repealed by the Fed. Most of the country had not experienced any type of business slowlown since 1991, and if you were lucky enough to be in an area of high tech expansion, you hadn't had a business slowdown since 1980 - 1981.

Needless to say, small business expanded as fast as credit would allow. Very similar to the sheeple buying stock and financial assets at or near the top of any bull trend.

2002, 2003 saw a reduction in average volumes and a subsequent decline in gross profits. Even with rates approaching zero, volumes could not keep up with the drop in gross margins. Way too many businesses were keeping their cash flow turning by dropping prices. They had no choice, business savings were non existant, and the debt had to be serviced.

Sales professionals, as businesses, work on variable pay plans. Most live paycheck to paycheck, but have fixed outlays to support life styles that were determined by incomes that could not, and cannot be sustained.

The pressure from sales professionals, business owners, etc., to return to the glorious days of yesteryear is enormous. They quote government statistics, all the pro da, and are now in the process (if they are lucky enough to have any assets left to mortgage) refinancing to keep their lifestyles afloat. It's beeing done on the last vestiges of debt, hope, and blatent economic stupidity.

Business decisions, as investment decisions, are more emotional than most think. We sometimes get too caught up thinking all businesses have plans, are well financed, have knowledgeable, smart, and educated owners and managers. THEY DON'T. Nearly all have been promoted to their positions by luck (being in the right position AT THE RIGHT TIME), related, or politics.

The majority of jobs in this country are created by small buisinesses. Most do not work for public corporations with published financial statements (assuming you can believe all of what you read in them). Most have no idea of the real financial situation of their employer. Most go to work every day with a feeling of security. I have a job, I have a paycheck, and I'll live on what I make, and borrow what I need.

Would you live the same way you are right now, if your income came from an annonomous benefactor in the form of a check each month? You would not know from where, or for how long it would continue. Well, I hate to burst a few bubbles out there, but workers only know half the answer - and that is where their paychecks come from. AND THEY LIVE AND SPEND AS IF THEIR EMPLOYERS AND MANAGEMENT ARE INFALLABLE.

There is more collective ignorance managing business (and most through no fault of their own, just circumstance, going with the flow, and being in the right position at the right time) than most realize.

Ignorance may be bliss, but how many know if their employer just made a decision that risked the entire company based upon greed, fear, or "I have no choice" because I have no resources to fall back upon to weather a significant recession?

THINK!!!!You have no one to really rely upon but yourself. Double your savings, with a goodly portion in PM's. I personally know of a few hundred employees that just had their jobs thrown on the crap table by an owner who continues to live in the past. . . .

Pizz


steady
(01/03/2004; 10:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114521)
squak....... interesting series here ...........squak
http://atimes.com/c-asia/DA25Ag01.htmlThis continuing series in the Asia Times is a must know and why the US makes war.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EK01Ad01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK05Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK08Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK15Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK20Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EK25Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL03Ag03.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL05Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL10Ag02.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL12Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL18Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL24Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EL25Ag02.html

http://atimes.com/c-asia/DA25Ag01.html

http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/DA26Ag01.html
Caradoc
(01/03/2004; 12:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114522)
Help needed
http://www.dukascopy.com/english/cquotes/onlinecharts/My computer has decided to reject any HTML that includes Java script. Could someone with a fully functional machine please check the link above to confirm/refute rumor of gold trading above $416?

Thanks to all,

Caradoc
Gandalf the White
(01/03/2004; 12:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114523)
Sir Caradoc
Caradoc (01/03/04; 12:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114522)
Help needed
----
SORRY --- FLATLINEED just below $416. !!
<;-)
21mabry
(01/03/2004; 14:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114524)
(No Subject)
Financial Times seems to have good sized articles about gold everyday of late,I am even actually seeing silvers gains mentioned in some articles.Just a observation to the forum,have you ever noticed the looks on peoples faces when you mention or talk about investing in gold or silver?People I have talked to have no clue they have no idea even how to buy it.This year I think you will see precious metal boiler shops opening in droves charging outrageous premiums.What I have been doing is telling loved ones and friends if you buy in the future just check with me before you purchase so you dont get ripped off.Just a question to are european members,Parmalat looks like they make some pretty tasty products it looks far better than store bought american products of the same nature.Are their products any good.21 P.S. If you do not want to get invited to parties anymore just discuss the problems you see on the horizon falling dollar,rising commodity prices,falling stock market.I can assure you your popularity will fall like a lead zepplin.
Leigh
(01/03/2004; 14:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114525)
21mabry
We buy Parlamat boxed milk to keep at our cabin. It has an expiration date of about six or so months out, and you can buy it at Whole Foods Markets. It's pretty good, though we prefer fresh organic milk at home. We haven't tried other Parmalat products.

Happy New Year to all of you!!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/03/2004; 15:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114526)
An Invitation to Prospective Clients....
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 16:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114527)
Gold popularity
@ 21Mabry

Boiler shops are already readily open for business in the media. Next time you click through the cable and satellite channels, notice how many HSN, QVC, and ShopNBC specials are dedicated to overpriced coins and jewelry. I saw one ounce gold coins "on sale" for $799 each last week. If you thought convenience stores overcharged for their "convenience", you'll get a serious haircut buying gold from these hucksters.

Thanks to association with CPM and other long time members of the honest precious metals community, a single glance is all that's needed to see these media crooks are doubling and tripling margins to their ignorant TV buyers. CPM offers all the convenience of honest pricing, thanks to the miracle of the internet and a reputation for quick and honest service in the marketplace!

Caviat Emptor - stick with experienced, reputable bullion dealers or get skinned alive!
DryWasher
(01/03/2004; 16:18:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114528)
Fed should improve policy transparency--Bernanke
http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/01/03/rtr1196986.html
Snips:

Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke said on Saturday the U.S. central bank could improve the economy's performance by finding ways to make its objectives and thinking clearer to the public.

Bernanke, who has long argued the Fed should adopt an explicit target for acceptable inflation, said reserach suggested the central bank should be "as explicit as possible about its policy objectives.

DryWasher Comment:

Yes Sir Mr. Bernanke, no more GreenSpeak. Just come right out and tell the public that the Fed intends to inflate the Dollar until it it is worth nothing. That should cause the economy to pick up.

Gold. Me thinks you better have you some.
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 16:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114529)
Hello PIZZ
"Sales professionals, as businesses, work on variable pay plans. Most live paycheck to paycheck, but have fixed outlays to support life styles that were determined by incomes that could not, and cannot be sustained."

Dear Sir: Please don't tar everyone with the same brush.
(smile)..CM
Pizz
(01/03/2004; 17:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114530)
Cavan Man
Thought I said "most" (smile), and still have quite of bit of that tar on my backside mixed in with some feathers from Rich's chickens. . . .comes off a bit easier with a stiff brush with gold and silver bristles. . .

Pizz
MK
(01/03/2004; 17:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114531)
Nightmare Gold Swap: Not Gold for Oil, but Gold for Electricity
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256DFF0059FC2D?OpenDocumentSomehow, I missed this article earlier in the month. It describes a very strange hedge/swap operation at South Africa's Durban Deep. The article was published on 12/17 at the MineWeb. I've always started with the premise on these swaps, carry trades, gold loans, etc that they were hedging products sold by the various banking-trading company operations. In this case Investec appears to have been the vendor. My hunch is that Durban was sold on this swap (much the same way investors are sold on the latest bond offering or hot IPO). In the process, it appears they took quite a haircut.

The "Nightmare Gold Swap" raises two immediate points of interest for gold investors:

First, it demonstrates once again why I say gold stocks are stocks first and the metal itself second. How many investors in Durban Deep feel betrayed by the MineWeb's Stewart Bailey calls a 'Nightmare' for the South African miner. "There appears to be a sound cash flow rationale for pruning the electricity hedge," says Stewart, "but DRD shareholders could be forgiven for feeling aggrieved at yet another dilutory share issue." The swap, at the moment, represents a 250 million rand liability on the Durban's balance sheet, and Investec claims to be well hedged on the other side. And that assumes that the price doesn't rocket to the $500 level before it's all straightened out. Why these gold mining companies, whose livelihood depends on a strong gold price, constantly bet against gold is beyond my comprehension and always has been. In this case, Durban promised to pay in ounces per kilowatt, it seems -- AT A FIXED PRICE!!

Second, on a grander scale, how many other stranger than strange swaps (as in gold for electricity) are out there needing to be reconciled in some format? One is led to believe that as the gold price goes up there will be more gold-chasing skeletons exiting the closet than a scene out of "Pirates of the Caribbean".
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 18:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114532)
Simmons reports and presentations
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeechesLinks to presentations at Simmons web site. An investment banker in the energy business, I found some presentations on their perspective of the natural gas markets. In their latest presentation to IAEE, most of the shortage is blamed on growing seasonal demand (especially summer, which is new) for NatGas in the power generation business, but doubt is also cast upon reliability of gas usage and storage reporting stats.

I am not aware of their biases (I can certainly guess some), but the presentations are interesting.
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 18:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114533)
MK
Hi Mike. Was there any particular exchange with Another that gave you pause to think that this cyber personality might really have a story to tell? What subsequent THOUGHTS gave you reason to reflect on the dialogue (with Another) as perhaps having significant substance?

Bored with holidays....cheers...CM
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 18:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114534)
True enough....
"In the very same mind set, that people buy the best value for the lowest price (Japan cars in the late 70s), and leave an established producer to die, so will they escape the American currency and accept any competitor that offers a better deal. Because we are speaking of currencies here, the transition will be brutal! "

Another
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 19:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114535)
Truer still....?
"As you ponder these thoughts, consider that; all economies today are truly equal in production as the exchange rates are the manufactures of profit!"

Another
Dollar Bill
(01/03/2004; 19:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114536)
*>*
Sir MK, Egads...

Sir Dry Washer,
Wouldnt business just build the bereneke inflation rate into thier charges to the consumer?
Wether or not there was inflation to them, they could just say, inflation charge on the bill.
Managed strangulation of the living public? Who need to float thier boat as bereneke pokes holes in thier hull letting in the -recommended amount of water- the inflation of water into your boat rate?
Is he also recommending Fed inflation rate add ons to the public paychecks? My insurance, energy, food, everything but perhaps the walmart products, link up to the bereneke fed recommended inflation rate, squeezing me and the fellow citizens.
Will the minimum wage move with the new fed inflation rate?
I guess so. But, then again, that would be inflationary, politicians would need an election year reason to do it.
And every worker will be able to extract this inflation rate out of thier company into thier pay when the company is also being squeezed by the inflation from every corner?
Is is a slowed down version of the german hyperinflation of the 20's? bereneke really wants targeted inflation? of course, they know inflation is coming, so if they say xx% inflation rate, even though we are hammered with much higher inflation, they will be telling us how they are managing the xx% inflation, they know about it, you dont need to scream, it is ok, inflation is all part of the new normal, Joe Citizen, adjust to the new reality, we will help you manage the squeezing by new legislation and print money. Will they decrease taxes at the inflation rate?
Inflation is letting more and more water into all the boats floating. All the families will sink in time. There is no managing inflation. There is only sinking families growing in number daily.
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 19:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114537)
Durban Shares.....
....constitue an absolute SPECULATION. DROOY is not an investment IMHO.
MK
(01/03/2004; 19:25:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114538)
C-Man
In my view, way back when, Another views had to be accepted in the context of a clear break with the past. In this 'context', if you and I were to sit down with a bottle of wine between us (and some good accompaniments), we would ceremoniously break the glasses in the fireplace, representing that the past was the past and that this was a new beginning, take out some news and pour the vintage. Before Another came along, we had one set of understandings with respect to the gold market. After his ideas were presented, we had another. The glass was broken. Historical inevitability became an overwhelming presence in the reality of all those who read and understood his message. Therein lies the value. Another's and FOA's values led the way to a new understanding of the gold market for many. For me, we were travelling along similar lines, therefore our hooking up at this website was a natural. I could almost anticipate where he was going next. I have always seen gold as a currency and form of savings (as opposed to the dollar which is a currency but not a form of savings -- at least in a rational sense), so to see the rest of the investment community coming along in 2003-2004 on what Another, FOA and I were talking about five years ago is a vindication of sorts -- though I don't think any of us would find much satisfaction in that vindication. The political economic reality is what is. We simply react to it. It's like standing in the street and seeing an approaching truck. It requires no third-party commendation to validate the reaction, and it doesn't take much to understand what you should do about it's impending imposition on your physical reality. Another brought that home -- and I appreciated his approach to that basic message, because it loosened the cobwebs in so many minds. I do not mean to romanticize what is essentially a very pragmatic approach on the part of Another and FOA. I merely point out that a very fundamental understanding of what is happening with the dollar and world polity leaves one, as a result, very comfortable with gold ownership. And wasn't that essentially the message in 'Thoughts!" ??

And by the way, why I would very much welcome their return. My initial question would be where do we go from here? I believe we are close to a completely new arrangement in the monetary order that calls for an international monetary convention of the world's greatest nations. Interesting that the Pope would call for something similar in his New Year's message. I wonder what FOA and Another would have to say about that notion.
Great Albino Bat
(01/03/2004; 19:31:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114539)
Parmalat milk....

This is as close to milk as paper is to gold.

Parmalat "milk" does not spoil soon because it contains preservatives, like for instance, FORMALDEHYDE.

Formaldehyde is used to embalm corpses.

And some people want to drink that stuff?

Not this GAB.
Dollar Bill
(01/03/2004; 19:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114540)
*>*.................,,,,
When some real high number of people are paycheck to paycheck, and companies like walmart have 60% (and rising)of thier employees qualifying for food stamps, with the fed shipping jobs overseas for the sake of reserve currency status, with the US and Japan trying to balance a brave new world of infinite us debt........ect.......
the bereneke fed sees me and my fellow man floating our boats and instead of doing thier jobs for our sake, instead, for the dollars sake, they determine we can afford new bilge pumps and time and effort to bail out the water they in effect are leaking into our boats.
Are they planning to give us free national healthcare to compensate for the inflation rate?
What are the Japanese thinking?
Are they planning to just buy land and move thier increasing population here? In 20 years of loaning us money, they will be able to do just that. Buy farm land and ship the food to Japan? Manage the (coming)US (command) economy like, in effect, a financial colony?
The road of Japan providing the us Credit needs will lead where? Japan wins ww2 after all?
What is the result of the infinite debt road?
Someone else owns us.
Why would they want to destroy the dollar when loaning the richest country all the debt they want will give you ownership?
Am I missing something here?
Is there some genius bereneke plan?
MK
(01/03/2004; 19:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114541)
C-Man
Just realized that all of that was preliminary to answering your question. It wasn't one exchange between us but the body of work and the on-going nature of it that fit so well with the internet venue that impressed me.

Also, sorry for the text errors. Just trying to get out the ideas tonight.
Dollar Bill
(01/03/2004; 19:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114542)
*>*
Sir MK, I am glad Cavan Man got you to post longer.
My first guess on the Pope issue is that he played the hand of France and Germany when the iraq issue came up.
He is being coached by someone on the French team.
Of course, he is Polish, even though they did not agree with the Pope on Iraq, they ARE in the EU, and the EU must be freaking at seeing Japan stand up and say, we are going to own america. We are going to take our surplus credit nation status and slowly buy America.
The chirac idea of power blocks stand no chance it appears if Japan decides the fate of the world. As it seems to have done. Of course I could be hallucinating, not to mention definately projecting. But, it is all I can see at this time.
Other than the water leaking into all our boats.
If Japan decides to, couldnt it even support an al kida hammered US? "we will continue our buying of America, we will overlook the couple of dirty bombed cities ect."
Cavan Man
(01/03/2004; 19:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114543)
MK
Can you elaborate on Pope John Paul's "message"?

Sharing a bottle of wine with you would be a vintage experience akin to spending a few days with our favorite Austrian.

The glass is indeed broken asunder; the cobwebs have all been swept away. 2004 is a year of momentous change. It must be so.
MK
(01/03/2004; 20:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114544)
Dollar Bill
This pope is in a unique position in that he is not beholden to any state. He can afford to say what he has to say. Contrary to what many believe about the power politics of the Vatican (and I do not deny that it plays an important role), the Catholic Church's power base is as much in places like South America and the United States, as it is in Europe, and if you question that take a look at the make-up of the College of Cardinals (which will elect the next pope). I believe this Pope sees an unravelling of the post World War II order, just as Another did in that post I put up last night. ( I couldn't help but notice that last night when I read the old post.) He is attempting to make sure that the Third World gets cut into the deal, thus the references to the marriage between technology and resources. There is that old idea (Karl Jung, I believe) that ideas themselves rise up from a well in the collective unconcious (or subconscious) and visit many people at the same time. I think many see (hope for) a new social contract. Whether or not we will see it is another matter. Between now and then, the need for gold ownership will become unavoidably apparent.
Goldilox
(01/03/2004; 20:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114545)
Japan
@ Dollar Bill

Japan tried buying US real estate once in the late 80's and had their heads handed to them with an ugly real estate devaluation. I'm not convinced they would like to try that again. From what I've read, I think they are more interested in owning part of China's production and the natural resource supply to same. Japan has more to gain in the long run by cozying up to China than many believe. . . bad history or no.
Dollar Bill
(01/03/2004; 20:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114546)
*>*
Sir MK, I love this pope. Sure the clothes are a turn off, but he is one sincere and true blue man. Thank goodness he has diluted the influence of American and European cardinals and thinking by his appointing so many third world cardinals.
I am not Catholic, but his actions on social issues, definately NOT the iraq issue, gets my appoval.
His stance against communism is another heroic type of action, and his Mother Theresa oriented thinking is much better than previous prelate thinking.
Mr Gresham
(01/03/2004; 21:49:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114547)
Chiming in while...
still fresh in mind.

Pizz: My impression of the business world exactly. And employees whistling on their way to work. Most jobs here are fluff, supported by our leading national export: green paper. If not eliminated, those jobs will certainly be continued only under severe conditions. Think USSR 1991.

Dollar Bill: I've grown to enjoy your posts over this past year. Didn't catch the beginning of your Japan thoughts, until I read down past Pizz' posts, but the strategy of "buying America" must be occurring to some in Japan. (Just as the Jipangu idea occurred to market gold to high savers in Japan.)

It's just that buying US Treasuries has never seemed to me the way to come into ownership of US real estate or industry. There must be some highly-solvent investment entities (partnerships? closed funds? hedge funds?) that could turn in those Treasuries for harder assets on our shores. These will not be the highly-leveraged public entities we are used to hearing about, either here or in Japan.

Your comments almost had me going out to begin one of my curiosity projects: looking at balance sheets of the top 20 US banks, if that info were available maybe as a Yahoo screen?, and see who the FED sees as likely survivors, worth backing in a meltdown for survival as flagship US banks, perhaps aided by Japanese capital rapidly mobilized (as long as they only sell the agreed-upon percentage of Treasuries to do it).

Those banks would then take up the major positions in US farmland, real estate, high-tech toolmaking, advanced materials -- all the remaining top US technology that can be cherry-picked at coming bargain prices. You KNOW they must have their shopping list all made, just waiting for the go-ahead.

OTOH, maybe US investors have already made private deals (with or without Japanese money) to lock down those assets. Or get in ahead of Japan. (Of course the bargain prices haven't arrived yet. I guess it's a fee-based or management-interest arrangement?) These would be very private entities never listed as publicly-traded.

Are the Japanese savers really resigned to leaving all their money (what is it, $100,000+ per household) in Postal Savings Accounts?
Mr Gresham
(01/03/2004; 21:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114548)
Thoughts of the morning (clink! clink!)
while nursing my aching back. Had to carry some silver up some steep stairs last night. Stuff is as heavy as ever, an' I been workin' out! Just should have divided the load better.

Good time to do some clinkin'.

Your own private moment of appreciating the financial plan you have put yourself upon.

When those holiday bills arrive, or if last year was rough on you in other departments, don't forget to pull out some of those coins we talk about, and let them make their joyful noise for you. Your subconscious, listening, will thank you!
21mabry
(01/03/2004; 23:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114549)
(No Subject)
I was reading some of Marc Faber's work.I am generalizing but Doctor Faber seems to equate commodity bull markets as a product of fear that currencies will become worth less,he equates equity bull markets especially bubbles with a persons sense of greed,Dr Faber states that some of the best times to purchase equities are during hyperinflation enviroments.Weimar Germany along with the meltdown of Russia in Dr.Fabers writing offered fantastic buying oppurtunities for equities.He stated in his writing Diamler during that time could have been purchased for the price of 370 of there autos I assume he ment with U.S. currency.It may be that gold holders will be presented with life time buying oppurtunities in other markets in the coming years.Hold your positions.21
Mr Gresham
(01/04/2004; 00:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114550)
"Fed's Folly Will Come Due in 2004"
http://www.thestreet.com/_more/markets/detox/10134346.htmlI know I should give you some snips, but this Peter Eavis' piece is worth a complete read. In fact, I might even give it another go, after I unwind the massive dumb .pdf that has my laptop overheating ;(
Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 00:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114551)
Eavis piece
Mr G

This was posted earlier in the week. Two very interesting things.

1) It comes from Jim Cramer's (of CNBC) site www.thestreet.com

2) Timing - JC and Larry Kudlow are still hyping the heck out of the fantastic "recovery".

Does this mean JC has all his puts in place and is readying his subscribers for the SM drop based on mainstream "concern" for deficits and the dollar?

If so, Dave Tice and Tim Wood will be vindicated in SPADES.

Got gold?
Waverider
(01/04/2004; 01:03:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114552)
Gold glimmers in Pakistan
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-1-2004_pg5_5"Local gold prices rose over 17 percent in 2003 primarily due to a buoyant international market where gold prices soared by over 20 percent as more investors opted for safe heaven investing to seek refuge from the turbulent international capital and currency markets, traders and analysts said here Friday."

Waverider: Last year at this time there was alot of Gold bashing by the media - the trend now appears to be acknowledgement of Gold as an international currency and safe haven refuge...from Gaza City to Karachi!
Operative
(01/04/2004; 05:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114553)
Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4068885Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Saturday that policymakers have been proven correct in their decision not to try to prick a 1990s stock-market bubble that subsequently broke on its own.
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that our strategy of addressing the bubble's consequences rather than the bubble itself has been successful," Greenspan told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, Calif.

Comment: This link is the cure for all who awake this morning with a clear mind. Greenspeak, nobody does it better.

Note: I think the reason I have such difficulty understanding what Greenspan is saying may have been brought to light in a recent women's magazine. ( I won't go into the reasons why I was reading a womens magazine, suffice to say I relate to a Clint Eastwood movie where as a Marine he is attempting to gain insight into the other gender by reading similar magazines during a bus ride.)

Like Greenspan, women can be pretty tricky reading as well. Example: Q. Is anything wrong my dearest?
A. No, not really.

Any man who accepts that answer as accurate is in big trouble. Let's try another :
Q. Where would you like to go to dinner?
A. I leave it up to you, it does not matter to me.

Well, I found out that pulling into the local fast food spot was in fact, " a matter".

I am sure the answer to breaking the Greenspan code is right in front of me, if only I can get past this next article, " How to get what you want from any man without having to ask."

Wish me luck,
Melting Pot
(01/04/2004; 05:57:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114554)
The Debt To the Penny: $7,001,312,247,818.28
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmA billion seconds ago it was 1959.

A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.

How much is a trillion?

A trillion, in America, is a thousand billion, which would be written as a one with 12 zeros:

1,000,000,000,000

Mr. Schwartz has this to say about how long it would take to count to a trillion:

"Since most of the numbers between one and one trillion are even larger than those on the way to one billion, the average time required to pronounce them is even longer. Try, for instance, 369,472,888,227 (three hundred sixty-nine billion, four hundred seventy-two million, eight hundred eighty-eight thousand, two hundred twenty-seven). How long did that take you? I would say that six seconds is an average time per number in counting to a trillion. (Remember, you have to pronounce every syllable!)

That means it would take six trillion seconds or 190,259 years to reach the number one trillion - assuming of course, that modern science discovers the secret of immortality long before you achieve your goal. (6,000,000,000,000 seconds divided by 60 seconds per minute divided by 60 minutes per hour divided by 24 hours per day divided by 365 days per year = 190,259 years)"

How much is a trillion? This is hard to imagine but here is a website, called A Trillion Dollars, that might help:

http://www.mcn.net/~jimloy/trillion.html
http://www.punahou.edu/acad/sanders...BillionEtc.html

So what is the minimum amount of time required to count to 7 trillion?

190,259 years per trillion X 7 trillion is 1 million, 331 thousand, eight hundred and thirteen (1,331,813) years MINIMUM to count to 7 trillion....

@ MK (01/03/04; 17:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114531)

"Durban promised to pay in ounces per kilowatt, it seems"

Whats this? Gold employed as money and a medium of exchange in South Africa! SA has many problems under the current chaotic government regime, paying in gold is probably a sound business decision as DRD will be guaranteed power when many others may not...JMO

Got Gold?


Belgian
(01/04/2004; 06:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114555)
Sir Gresham's article : Fed's Folly !
As an amateur obsever, I do underwrite this article for 100%. It is all as simple as described by detox. Great article Sir Gresham. Thanks.

The (technical) interpretation of the different long term charts, are indicating the many inconsistancies between those different financial parameters.

Interest Rates ($-�) AND the US$-exch.rate, haven't reversed (yet) their declining "trend". But, the $-POO, $-POG, euro-exch.rate, are still rising and this rising "trend" hasn't been broken/reversed, yet.

I see the MSCI-USD-world index, topping...but might have it wrong.

Dollar-exch.rate weakness might undergo a short term correction, without changing the general trend ? IRs might be pushed lower, once again, as to avoid a breakthrough of the LT (since '94) declining trendline ?

Yep, the Bush administration & Co, definitely wants a second term in november. Will everybody remain cooperative up until election time ?

Note the following anomaly : % Jap 10 yrs in '03-'04 rose from 0,42% to 1,5% (+300%-!!!) whilst the yen appreciated 10% against the dollar in the same period !?

This planet is totally dollar-oriented and has almost blind faith in the dollar-policies as the world's main economical/financial, engine.
Things will definitely change, "if" and "when" the �-$ exch. rate goes beyond the 1,40 level. Will wait and see to what extend, debtbergs, multiple deficits and generally rising IRs, will be (become) globally destructive (damaging).

Many TRILLIONS of dollars, outside the US, are quietly awaiting their fate.
a nation of one
(01/04/2004; 09:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114556)
...

Greenspan said: "There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that our strategy of addressing the bubble's consequences rather than the bubble itself has been successful," Greenspan told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, Calif.

This touches on the substance of the problem. It is not the consequences of the bubble that need to be dealt with, but the cause of the bubble. Since the FED causes the bubble, the FED is part of the problem, if not all of the problem.

If Alan were to refine his statement, intending it to be truthful and concise, rather then misleading and impressive-sounding, it might go something like this: "Because most people do not examine it carefully, our plan of dealing with the symptoms of the bubble (instead of with its causes) still has most people fooled." Granted, on the surface it looks like it might be working. But mere appearances are not evidence. Especially if they are created for the purpose of deceiving.

The good news is that this will not go on forever. More and more people are beginning to perceive the ruse.
Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 10:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114557)
FED's Folly article
When Melting Pot originally posted this on 12/30, I asked if anyone had considered the source and timing of the article, as it from www.thestreet.com, Jim Cramer's analysis arm. He and Kudlow are still hyping the SM miracle of 2003, so it seems somewhat contradictory that this comes from his shop at this particular time.

Is the left hand unaware of the right one, or are we witnessing the early transformation of mainstream awareness?

One other possibility - I believe his has stated Democratic party affilliation, although he seems less than thrilled with the curtrent candidate selection - could there be some political messaging here?

The questions are not meant as conspiracy fodder, but when I see cross-messaging from the same source, motivational analysis often proves enlightening? Any comments?

Druid
(01/04/2004; 10:12:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114558)
Belgian (1/4/04; 06:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114555)
"Things will definitely change, "if" and "when" the �-$ exch. rate goes beyond the 1,40 level. Will wait and see to what extend, debtbergs, multiple deficits and generally rising IRs, will be (become) globally destructive (damaging)."

Druid: Sir Belgian, as always, excellent analysis and commentary. My bet is that we have a while to go before we get rising interest rates. This deadly game has come down to how best to manage both time and interest rates along the over all yield curve. The consortium knows that any SPIKE in interest rates creates a QUICK and EXPLOSIVE chain reaction that reverberates throughout all world markets. This is not what they want and goes against any notions of an orderly transition. They still have time and can go on the long end and manage it down for awhile until all yields converge and then what?

They will continue to expand whatever distortions (bubbles) they need to in order to manage interest rates within a tight range or downward.
Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 10:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114559)
Orderly rate rise
@ Druid, Belgian

It almost seems that the FED is waiting and waiting as long as possible before instituting any rate rise when most financial indicators suggest that slow small increments might already be in order. Their hesitation might force larger hikes later, as once again they react rather than preempt. IMO, inaction when warranted is as political as action itself.
Boilermaker
(01/04/2004; 10:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114560)
U.S. economy plans of Democrat hopefuls
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040104/campaign_economy_factbox_1.htmlThis post is NOT meant to be political but a glimpse at the continuing economic debate for the 2004 election.

snips;
FISCAL POLICY
Each candidate has proposed rolling back at least a portion of the $1.7 trillion in tax cuts President George W. Bush has signed into law.....
HEALTH CARE
Gephardt has offered the most expensive plan, seeking near-universal coverage at an estimated cost of more than $200 billion a year........
Dean also seeks to vastly expand health care coverage. His plan, estimated to cost $88 billion a year.........
JOB CREATION
Dean would provide $100 billion over two years to states and localities to be used for infrastructure investments and hiring and training related to homeland security. Clark also has a $100 billion two-year job-creation plan, which focuses in part on aid to states......
TRADE
All the leading candidates say trade agreements should have labor and environmental standards..........
SOCIAL SECURITY
All candidates oppose privatization and oppose raising the retirement age. None has offered a specific plan for long-tern solvency..........

comments; I'm sure the above brings a sense of relief to all here. No worries, just need more taxes and more spending. But you might want to consider a different approach to your own "long-term solvency".
Great Albino Bat
(01/04/2004; 10:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114561)
Learning Greenspeak.....

"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that Alan Greenspan is...."(you fill in the dots).

Once you have mastered say, 250 circumlocutions such as the sample given above, you are ready to write a Doctoral Thesis on any subject you please, about which you need know nothing whatsoever.

"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that the Universe is made up of boiled cabbage." Stated so elegantly, who could possibly cast doubt on that? Now if you possess an upper-class English accent, you are unquestioned master in your selected field.
People go to Cambridge and Oxford to learn the technique of putting-down the opponent instantaneously.

Yuck.

History will reduce Greenspan to his correct stature, which is microscopic.

The GAB

Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 10:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114562)
Campaign "solutions"
@ Boilermaker

Yep, the campaign is settling into "Tax and Spend" vs. "Borrow and Spend". Notice the operative word "spend". The last "smaller government" candidates that garnered popular support were Reagan and Dubya, who turned out to be two of the biggest deficit spenders in history.

It's not hard to see why the US consumer borrows his way to insolvency when they watch their various governments do the same thing with seeming impunity.

I heartily endorse your conclusions. Personal solvency is the last vestige of independence. Cherish it - get gold.
21mabry
(01/04/2004; 10:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114563)
Gold and the World
I think something that needs to be discussed is gold bull market in the U.S. and its trend in other currencies.People in the U.S. like myself have seen gold move higher agains are fiat.Many other people have not seen these gains in there fiat in relation to gold.What are the implications of this?Can we truly say gold is in a bull market if its not moving up against all fiat?I do not know these answers,I need the brighter minds on the forum to help me with this concept.For me golds move has been great for are other forum members maybe it hasn't been as beneficial.21
Druid
(01/04/2004; 11:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114564)
Goldilox (1/4/04; 10:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114559)
Orderly rate rise


"It almost seems that the FED is waiting and waiting as long as possible before instituting any rate rise when most financial indicators suggest that slow small increments might already be in order. Their hesitation might force larger hikes later, as once again they react rather than preempt. IMO, inaction when warranted is as political as action itself."


Druid: An interesting view Sir Goldilox. I would suggest that for some time now, there has been a blossoming relationship between the Fed and the bond speculation crowd as they appear headed toward the alter. I certainly hope the FED wouldn't get a case of "cold" feet at this point and do something whimsical like change and reverse short- term interest rate policy. This would be a very BAD SIGNAL and could very well create a lot of hurt and anguish for the poor bride to be (the bond speculation crowd). The parents (currency & derivative markets), not too mention the bride herself, could REALLY frown on such behavior which could create a shotgun response that maybe the FED may not be in position to handle.

Now, now, there is cake and champagne for everybody let's take a seat and enjoy the ceremony.
Druid
(01/04/2004; 11:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114565)
The Paradox of Low Money Growth
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/benson010504pv.htmlSnip.

A quick view of stock markets around the world indicates liquidity is everywhere. "Easy money" is driving commodity and financial asset prices up not only in the US but worldwide. The economy is booming but the traditional measures of US money (M1, M2 and MZM), reveal what would normally be troubling low money growth. Low money growth and massive monetary reflation seems to be a true paradox. How can this be? Let's start with what everyone already knows.

The greatest source of the increase in world liquidity remains financing the United State's massive budget and trade deficits. These deficits cannot be financed by US savings because the US has almost no savings! Instead, these deficits are being financed by the creation of new bank reserves by not only the Federal Reserve, but by other Central Banks, primarily in Japan and China.

The obvious impact of this is best seen in China. With China's currency pegged to the dollar, printing currency to buy US Treasury securities is pushing up China's money supply growth at a 20% annual rate. Inflation in China is accelerating. Moreover, China is buying commodities from countries like Australia, which pushes money into the commodity producing countries. The money being stuffed in pushes up asset prices to a level that causes countries, like Australia, to raise interest rates to try and prevent the domestic economy from overheating and inflating too quickly.


Druid: The pressure just keeps building.
Operative
(01/04/2004; 11:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114566)
@ Great Albino Bat
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that Alan Greenspan is...."(you fill in the dots).

A former weatherman.

or, my local weather guru is trying very hard to develop the speaking skills of Greenspan.

"Today's weather is starting to shape up to look something that may resemble this: a brief cool period during the earlier, but not later hours to possibly be followed, as our earlier models suggest, but not verified, of a slight, but not overly so, warming period that is yet to be determined as to its degree to which it may advance. Forward looking indicators have shown this to be of high probability as long as the current jet stream pattern remains relatively within its current expectations and allowing for the high/low pressure patterns as indicated by the most recent barometric measurements not to be confused with the seasonally adjusted hedonic references often associated with the varied regional forecasts. For later in the day or early evening at the latest a front of moisture laden molecules are being presently observed to be moving in a more northernly than southernly direction at least at the lowest levels observed. Higher level influences appear to be, but have not yet been confirmed by more verifible sources to be graduating towards the east, but a westward reversal cannot be discounted at this time."

Owning two weather radios, and at least 7 Tv channels that provide weather information, some 24 hours a day, I have found the most reliable to be a small block of wood attached to a string hanging on my back porch. If the wood is wet, it is raining. If moving, it is windy. If dry, then sunny. Simple is as simple does is my motto for 2004. However my New Year's investment resolution is somewhat more complicated, having a two pronged approach. Buy More Gold. Buy More Silver.

I will continue to read Greenspan's speeches though. Ever since my Reader's Digest subscription expired, I have found Al's text to provide the opportunity to expand my vocabulary, albeit I am not sure how often I will find instances to use most of his unique jargon.
specie-man
(01/04/2004; 12:21:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114567)
Greenspan Speak
Here is an essay I wrote back in April of this year. It seems appropriate based on the recent discussion of Greenspan's speaking style.

"Sure Thing"

Perhaps the most important question ever pondered by Man is: "To be, or not to be ?". One of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's lasting influences, no doubt, will be the increased use of his favorite preamble by other economic commentators. What does Chairman Greenspan really mean when he adds the unnecessary "To be sure," at the beginning of key sentences in his reports? Is it, perhaps, some sort of secret code - designed to alert "insiders" to the true state of affairs ? In a highly unusual move last month the Federal Reserve Board of Governors refrained from making any call on the prevailing future risks to the economy because, it would seem, they were not sure if deflation or inflation is the more serious threat at this time. So now Greenspan has given the famous quandary a new form: "To be sure, or not to be sure ?" That is the question!

In the interest of reducing the number of keystrokes required to write this missive, I've decided to contract "To Be Sure" into it's shorthand version: "To BS" (and "Not To BS"). Hmm... I wonder, maybe this really is a "BS" flag. In other words, when Greenspan says: "To BS", anything that follows should be taken with a grain of salt !


In this vein, I have concocted my own list of the "top 10" economically-important things that I don't know if we can, or can not, be sure about (whew, there sure is a lot of uncertainty floating around right now!). For each of the 10 topics, I've added my BCS (Best Case Scenario).



Number 10:


To BS: Near-term future economic risks, according to the Federal Reserve, are cloudy, but probably balanced between inflation and deflation. As such, short-term interest rates were recently held steady by the Federal Reserve.


Not to BS: The Federal Reserve Board knows exactly what is going to happen, but they can't tell us. And if they raised, or lowered, interest rates, all sorts of financial mudslides could break loose.


My BCS: Every outstanding US Treasury bond (all US government debt) is wiped out by an eruption of Mt. Fuji in Japan (or possibly burnt in an intentional bonfire after the "paper" becomes nearly worthless except for it's ability to generate heat).



Number 9:


To BS: The current economic weakness is caused by uncertainty about the war in Iraq, and by high oil prices.


Not to BS: The current war in Iraq was caused by weaknesses in the economy, and is causing high oil prices.


My BCS: Enormous oil reserves are discovered under the mall in Washington, DC. Or, someone finally solves the mystery of "Cold Fusion" and we all start driving cars with little fusion energy generators in them. But then, there would probably be a war over palladium.



Number 8:


To BS: American consumers still have a lot of home equity wealth to dispose of, to keep the economy going.


Not to BS: American consumers have just a little bit of home equity left, and the frenzied mortgage industry is circling like hungry piranhas in a shrinking puddle. Soon they'll start feeding off each other. In the mean time, the crocodiles are eyeing people's remaining retirement accounts. The big untold story is: to what extent (in addition to home equity extraction) have consumers been "cashing out" their 401k retirement accounts to finance their unsustainable short-term living standards ?


My BCS: With global warming, we won't need any houses anyway, because we will all be able to live outside, year-round. And we won't need any significant retirement funds because, really, how much does it cost to live in a tent ?



Number 7:


To BS: Stocks are currently oversold, and represent a good investment opportunity.


Not to BS: Stocks are extremely overpriced, and the market will not go up until dividends are no longer paltry. "Mission-creep" by the US Government now has it purchasing equities on the dangerous days to prop up the market. And when did this drift away from truly free-market capitalism to communistic central economic planning start ? The big first step started around 1933. And the last gasp of Capitalism, as we know it, may arrive in a few years if this market manipulation continues.


My BCS: People finally realize that stock certificates are just no fun at all (except for the odd Enron stock certificate hanging on the wall as a conversation piece). Instead, people start investing their money in "fun" stuff like Yugi-Oh cards and zeppelins.



Number 6:


To BS: There are sufficient buffers and reserves in the economic system to protect it from shocks.


Not to BS: All it will take to bring the whole thing down is a major shock. While everyone had their eyes on Iraq, a potentially major shock to the world economy slipped in the door: SARS (the flu-like epidemic spreading across the globe). But I'm thinking about the type of shock that is even more sudden. Across the USA, housing prices are at unprecedented levels. So are mortgage debts as a (high) percentage of home values. In many areas, such as California, amounts owed on houses are dangerously close to (or even greater than) the market value of the property. With the weak job market, homeowners are struggling and some may be starting to walk away from (and default on) their mortgages. The kind of shock I'm thinking of is literally a shock - as in shock wave or aftershock. Think Richter Scale. If a major earthquake were to strike a populated part of California (Geologists say it is long overdue), image what it would do to housing values in the affected areas. People would default on mortgages in vast numbers. Families would move away. Neighborhoods would be in decline - causing a reinforcing cycle of crashing home values in ever-expanding areas. The government-sponsored entities "Freddie" and "Fannie", while huge, are severely lacking in the reserves necessary to cushion a national housing decline. Homeowners are also severely lacking in home-equity "reserves" to mitigate disasters of any magnitude.


My BCS: The ground stays put, or aliens transport some of us to a more stable planet.



Number 5:


To BS: The unemployment rate, according to the government is only about 5.5%.


Not to BS: For every person who has lost their job and is looking for one, there is another person who has totally given up on finding a job - and they are perpetually (it seems) living off of credit with no income.


My BCS: There are no jobs, so nobody ever has to work again - yahoo !



Number 4:


To BS: Interest rates are low, so the cost of borrowing money is at 40-year lows.


Not to BS: The interest I earn on savings is at a 40 year low. The minuscule interest income is not even worth the hassle of having to report it on my IRS Form 1040. So why save at all ?


My BCS: Interest rates go so low that banks will pay you to cart off the cash, and you never have to pay it back, Yahoo !



Number 3:


To BS: The price of gold is not being manipulated, it is priced according to a totally free market, and the US Dollar is not overvalued.


Not to BS: The government's "Strong Dollar Policy" implies that gold prices are held in check by unnatural forces. In Alan Greenspan's own words: "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities, should the price rise". In other words, if governments (central banks) want to cap or suppress the price of gold, all they have to do is lease more loads of their gold holdings to someone who will sell it, thereby causing the price to slide due to increased market supply.


My BCS: The price of gold drops far enough that I can afford to get the bumpers on my 1972 El Camino plated with it. (Yes, I really do own a 1972 El Camino - but not the one Steve Martin discussed at the recent Hollywood Oscar gala).



Number 2:


To BS: Prices are stable, and there is no appreciable price inflation in the economy.


Not to BS: Go into any Wal-Mart (or K-mart if you can find one with the doors unlocked). Look around. The same old crappy trinkets made in China (and elsewhere) are just as cheap and crappy as they ever were. I can just image the people working in those factories - what they are thinking: "Stupid Americans actually buy this junk, and in large quantities ?!". And in exchange for that junk, we Americans fork over the equity in our houses via the voracious, weed-like, government-sponsored, mortgage-backed equity conduits known as "Freddie", "Fannie", etc. Those equities are purchased, in quantity, by foreigners. Congratulations, someone in China now owns a bigger share of your house than you do. But just try to send your kids to college, or buy homeowner's insurance, or pay a visit to your doctor or lawyer, or fill up your car with gasoline. Those prices are not stable, and they are not lower.


My BCS: The price of "RAP" music CDs will go up so much that people will stop buying them.



Number 1:


To BS: Social Security will be there to help us retire in comfort.


Not to BS: Retirement for a huge swath of the population will be bleak. Not only will Social Security go bankrupt (or change the eligibility rules to eliminate many of us) long before our planned retirement, but the purchasing power remaining in most 401Ks and IRAs will be negligible due to a combination of price inflation and poorly-performing assets in those retirement accounts.


My BCS: None that I can think of - except maybe that Social Security goes belly up and ceases operation before my daughter has to start paying into it.

Conclusion:

To be sure, things look very questionable going forward. There I go again.
specie-man
(01/04/2004; 12:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114568)
Greenspan Speak
That would be April of LAST year.
Operative
(01/04/2004; 12:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114569)
France: Egypt Plane Crash May Be Due to Power Loss
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4070079France: Egypt Plane Crash May Be Due to Power Loss

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (Reuters) - Search teams hunted with nets Sunday for the remains of 148 people, mostly French tourists, who died in an Egyptian plane crash France said was most likely due to a loss of power.

Comment: The article states : "There was no explosion before the crash, no one has claimed responsibility for (an) attack," he said. "The arguments most commonly set out show that it was simply a loss of power," he told French radio Europe 1. "
For those that fly often this statement of no explosion may bring some relief, but consider the following. Air Terrorism has in the past been associated with big bangs. Rather large amounts of explosives in suitcases loaded aboard aircraft has been the norm. This may be changing. In spite of all the increased security actitivty at the terminal, the screening of passengers, luggage, and the removal of box cutters, at least for the most part, there remains a major problem yet to have been fully addressed. Maintenence personnel. Particulary at airports outside the US. A clipped wire here, a very small, lipstick size explosive placed in the right place, can accomplish the same fate for any airliner. We know the instigators of 911 had spent much effort in gaining instrunctional materials in order to fly the planes. It is conceivable that similar efforts have been spent in obtaining repair manuals in order to sabatoge airliners from within. The battlefield of the terrorist will be a fluid one, everchanging in tactics.

In spite of the hoopla from Wall St on how great things are going to be in 2004, they may be counting chickens before the eggs are laid, or something to that effect.
Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 13:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114570)
Top - 10
@ Specie Man

Great post. I vote for you to join the Mogamu guru in the economic humor archives.

My one alternative NBS concerns your prediction of the earthquake possibilities. Californians (I am one) are so acclimated to them that occurrance would be another motivator for the housing construction industry. The unfortunate fires of last fall have had that effect, as rents and construction have been buoyed by their economic impact just as the future of a soaring real estate market was questionable. One of the ironies of life is that calamity breeds growth as we reach for inner survival strengths.

Insurance money can be another liquidity boost. As the insurance rates rise to rebuild the company reserves, it's "borrowing" from the future in one more form.
Boilermaker
(01/04/2004; 13:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114571)
Gold 2004
Our host Michael asked for our outlook for gold in 2004. I think it will go up at least in $ terms and probably in all currencies. At some point, possibly this year, I believe the financial PTB will close the curtain on today's $ scheme and reopen it to a new and improved model. Amid the blathering that more tweeking here and there supported by lots of new $ creation will keep things together there must be some plan "B" under formulation. When will we know that the $ era is formally ending and the unveiling of plan "B" is imminent? What signs will we see in the weeks ahead of this event?

I would think that heads of state, treasury and financial officials, central bankers along with lots of shadowy "big players" will be scurrying around the world making deals. Is there any such thing as an index that tracks such activity? If not there should be. That would be akin to monitoring the communication flurries that presage terrorist ops. Call it the FCI, Financial Chatter Index.

I don't know when this event will occur or what it will look like. I do expect it will "negatively impact" most unsuspecting lemmings. I don't think it will be this year unless a precipitous $ fall or a big nasty event precipitates it. In the meantime party on!!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/04/2004; 14:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114572)
In bookstores it retails for $14.95, but you know the author! Get it here for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Goldilox
(01/04/2004; 14:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114573)
Golden Helmets
And the guys in the Golden helmets intercept in overtime to move on to Philly in the NFL playoffs.
The CoinGuy
(01/04/2004; 14:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114574)
Dr. Marc Faber's Comments for 2004
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/32991.htmlSnippit:

I remain convinced that the present 'strong' recovery phase in the US economy won't last for long, as it is totally artificial.

There are simply too many imbalances in the system, as reflected by a record low national saving rate, record household debts, and record trade and current account deficits, for this recovery to lead to sustainable strong growth that would justify the present stock valuations.

I have quoted Joseph Schumpeter in previous reports, but for the benefit of some of our new readers, I quote him here once again regarding the subject of economic recoveries, that are purely a consequence of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Comment: For those who bought Marc's book early last year, 2003 turned out be rather profitable. Although, the arguments on both sides(Bulls/Bears & Deflation/Inflation) of the equation are already set in stone. How this turns out will be one for the history books, this I am sure of.

As if the excesses haven't been?

The (physical) CoinGuy

Belgian
(01/04/2004; 14:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114575)
@marbry21 : Gold and the world ?
Indeed Sir, the biggest part of POG's rise is due to the declining exchange rate of the dollar-numeraire wich still is, Gold's antithesis ! Hereby must be taken into account that Gold's low of 253$/Oz was an overshooting (anomaly) that provoked the WAG countermeasure. We will never, ever know the *real* reasons for the obscene POG decline to 253$ and the WAG measure.

Gold remains in the Unfree dollar gold market, dominated by gold-paper-contracts as to support the dollar in the dollar reserve system. Let us hope that goldbugs start to realize that POG has very little to do with the realities of offer/demand and is managed pricewise as a monetary element in a strict dollar environment. Forget everything about goldmining figures and jewelry or gold investment statistics in relation to the POG !

As long as Gold stays in the dollar-system, POG will not run away in a spectacular fashion (the thousands). Gold must be set... or break free, from its dollar shackels. Freegold,... remember ?

When POG ran from 41$ to 850$ ('71 > '80)...it wasn't because of jewelry-mining, offer/demand statistics. It wasn't about high IRs or price-inflation. It was about the dollar and oil without the existance of an alternative reserve currency. That same dollar has been devaluing ever since that period of the eighties and the builders (architects) of Another currency-system had to keep supporting the existing dollar system whilst constructing the alternative. That's why everybody kept Gold contained in concert for dollar support, the globe's reserve currency and trading numeraire.

Now the dollar has to face strength or weakness against the opposing triumvirate of Gold - Oil - euro, wich will set Gold Free in euro and give the remaining oil-reserves, the value that they deserve.

Today, a Belgian Bilderberger, stated that the euro is the most remarkable financial (succesfull) event of this decade !

Any fiat currency with the ambition to replace the dollar-reserve has to be a friend of Gold and needs oil-trust as a transitional hub.

How many other currencies would like to walk away from their status of dollar-derivative and join the future euro-Gold umbrella ??? That's why CB-Goldreserves have to be re-distributed amongst non EU CBs. Or/and in the case of China and Russia, gold-exploration and mining, intensively encouraged as to increase their CB goldreserves.

CBs know very well, where they want the dollar exchange rate and the appropiate POG. Occasional gold (paper) market disturbances are not tolerated and corrected asap, by both camps of the double sided ($-�) Gold business. But the general perception must remain that central bankers are dummies ! Wich is, imo, certainly not the case. There are "two" Gold cartels and not one as generally percepted !

Sundeck
(01/04/2004; 15:00:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114576)
Rest of world gets sick of propping up Bush's deficit
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/04/1073151209953.htmlSnips:

"...

The US economy is reflating fast. Too fast? Much depends on Asia, John Garnaut writes.

The global flirtation with deflation is already last year's story. It has been washed away by torrents of money that the US Federal Reserve and the White House have let loose on the world.

The US central bank has never been so committed to keeping the price of money low. Few American presidents have been so profligate. With the help of Wall Street's financial markets, which are linking savers with spenders more efficiently than ever, their monetary and fiscal policies have reflated the world's economies.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and President Bush kick-started the US economy to have it roaring at an annualised 8.2 per cent in the September quarter. They also helped rescue East Asia from years of deflation, via a complex monetary and currency reaction.

Higher prices are certain to flow through import prices to Australia, mitigated in the short term by the strength of the seemingly irrepressible Australian dollar.

.....

Harvinder Kalirai, State Street Global Market's Asia Pacific strategist, says it is difficult to underestimate what ultra-low 1 per cent interest rates will do to an American economy which he calculates is already growing at capacity.

US interest rates are now further below the American GDP growth rate than at any time since the 1970s. The "output gap" that measures the difference between the economy's production and potential has probably already closed.

By the end of next year, Kalirai predicts the effects of a falling US dollar on US import prices, rising prices transmitted through Chinese and Japanese exports, and a tight US labour market (despite rising unemployment) will translate into a US inflation reading above 3 per cent.

"The Fed's goal is not to avoid deflation but to create inflation" says Kalirai.

"The scope for upward adjustments for US rates is quite dramatic."

Economists like Kalirai say the US dollar's fall was triggered by the extreme monetary and fiscal policies of Greenspan and Bush, which lowered the purchasing power of the US dollar.

Their liquidity glut is now being transmitted to the rest of the world by frenetic central bank buying in foreign exchange dealing rooms.

....


There has been dissension on the Bank of Japan board about whether to extend its US dollar-buying program.

And if Chinese inflation accelerates too far, the People's Bank of China could choose to loosen its currency peg and slow its purchases of US dollars.

Only faith from the East Asian central banks - or perhaps a continuation of the American economy's phenomenal productivity rates - may stand between the US and a currency fall, interest rate spike, investment slump, equity market fall and sub-standard economic growth.

..."

Sundeck:

An interesting discussion of what may lie ahead as the "dollar crisis" plays out...




21mabry
(01/04/2004; 15:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114577)
Beligan
Thanks for your response.What is the attitude of the gold investor in europe?Are they disapointed do they feel there is no gold bull?Do thet feel its on the horizon?Does golds relationship to the dollar keep european gold holders from benifiting from this gold move higher against the dollar?How does a european play this gold market?I am not writing about long term gold holders but the ordinary citizen who may be attracted to gold?As usual your answers always enlighten me to world opinions.21
DryWasher
(01/04/2004; 16:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114578)
'Osama' tape tells Muslims to fight
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8325176%255E1702,00.html

Snips:

A TAPE recording said to be of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has urged Muslims to continue fighting a jihad, or holy war, rather than co-operating with Middle East peace efforts

"My message is to incite you against the conspiracies, especially those uncovered by the occupation of the crusaders in Baghdad under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and also the situation in (Jerusalem) under the deceptions of the road map and the Geneva initiative," the speaker said.

"The occupation of Iraq is the beginning of the full occupation of the other Gulf states. ... The Gulf is the key for control of the world in the point of view of the big powers because of the presence of the biggest deposits of oil."

DryWasher Comment:

This short article is worth reading because it presents an insight into the "War on Terror" as seen from the Osama bin Laden perspective. Don't expect this war to be over any time soon. This is bad news for the economy and good news for the Gold markets.
Caradoc
(01/04/2004; 16:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114579)
Two FBI agents disagree with French version of airline incidents
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/Directors%20Notebook.htm#ATSnips from link above:

..."Let me get this straight. You have two F-16's escorting one Air France flight into LAX, other Air France flights cancelled, meetings involving [Secretary of State Colin] Powell, French Intelligence and us [the FBI], and the reason provided to the media was essentially that it was a case of mistaken identity?" ..."Where in the h--- do they get this stuff? I know we have our share of problems, but we're not stupid."

So, two individuals with some involvement in the matter are insulted by version of the story which downplays the threat. The agents remain anonymous and there's nothing to document the conversation, but during the months I've tracked Hagmann's website he has repeatedly been first with stories that are confirmed days later by government ot mass media.

Implication for precious metals as investment is that we are living in a time of uncertainty.

Caradoc
slingshot
(01/04/2004; 16:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114580)
Gold and the New Year
Get Ready for Here I Come. Earth, Wind and Fire?
Wishing all a Happy New Year. Yepper, Better late than never.
Knocking out the dents in my armor, especially in my helmet. Sharpening up the blade of my sword and sewing the rips and tears in my clothes. Oh yes, waterprofing my boots.
Getting ready for 2004!
In the New Year I will try not to be a Doom and Gloomer in the eyes of others by waiting for questions concerning gold,instead of giving advise. Remain ever positive with any pullback in price a buying opportunity.

In 2004,Its Gold for Sure!
Slingshot-----------------<>
Gold Standard
(01/04/2004; 16:57:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114581)
OBL and his alleged tapes

I personally find it strange that Bin Laden, the mastermind of a ruthless attack carried out with military precision from a cave in the Afghani desert, does not appear to even possess a video-cam, let alone a disposable camera.

My view is that he is rotting in whatever hell he used to believe in.

Cheers! GS
Chris Powell
(01/04/2004; 18:25:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114583)
Fed chairman's speech in San Diego
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1824Did Greenspan just rationalize Fed's intervention in
markets far beyond short-term interest rates?


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
steady
(01/04/2004; 18:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114584)
stuff
being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty!
some singer said something like that.

has there really been any new new gold news?

banks are still short, the pot is bubbling
someone keeps testing them to see what they do,
those short should have played a better hand and kept there fimg mouth shut, but there constant ramblings obver the past two years have done nothing but make them and there stoogies stand out like, yellow snow out past the back porch. obvioulsly they are not good poker players once a week.
demand is up , supply is down, what else do you need to know?
besides the dinar is going to have a banner year in sales and at one point they will start to use the dirham in the same breath more frequently. can usa gold get some of those things, ya know true gold bug collectors might like to have some of the new early editions of them coins.
goldquest
(01/04/2004; 19:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114585)
Greenspan's San Diego Comments
are not that suprising.
November 18, 1996 at the Federation of Bankers Association of Japan, Tokyo, Japan. Greenspan's comments on market intervention: "Thus governments have been given certain responsibilities related to their banking and financial systems that must be balanced. We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." My emphasis.
Waverider
(01/04/2004; 19:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114586)
Euro
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2...is up 1.26% at 1.2658 at the moment and the Yen's at 106.87 - where's the Japanese PTT tonight?
Waverider
(01/04/2004; 19:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114587)
And...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=5&t=l&a=2...from the US$ C(r)ash perspective...
Operative
(01/04/2004; 19:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114588)
Government Bonds in 2004
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=acLtpkd_PJjwIf one lives in a flood plain, it is a good idea to acquire flood insurance. If one lives in an area with rising debt levels, it would be prudent to obtain some insurance, aka Gold/Silver.
a nation of one
(01/04/2004; 20:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114589)
my outlook for gold in 2004

I think the price of gold will go up. How far is a good
question, and so is when. There are a lot of factors that
are influencing it, and a lot more that could. Therefore
there is uncertainty. But right now it looks like a duck.
It is quacking like a duck. And it is paddling like a
duck. Therefore, I think it is probably a duck. By this I
don't mean an ugly duckling, but a duck, though, soon, it
may fly like a swan.

One thing that I think is very likely to happen this year
is that more people will become aware of its increase, and
that this will make its price go higher, faster. Who these
people are is important. They will not yet be the Toms and
Sallys who work and save, but will probably consist more
of the types of people who are in the business of selling
stocks and bonds, and others who are in positions above
them. Additionally, more articles favorable to gold will
be published on the Internet and in newspapers and
magazines, and more news and financial programs on TV will
mention gold positively also. This will give people who
are alert the incentive to buy gold and gold-related
instruments. But alertness will still required. The day
may come when gold's increase will be noticed even by
those who are not paying attention. What matters is who
notices, who does not notice, and when, because that will
clarify what happens next.

World events have for some time been moving among
potentialities that can be expected to eventuate
consistent with this picture. It is hard to imagine an
event, or a sequence of events, or a process, that would
give substantial reason for gold to decline in value. Even
verbal conjectures that I have seen about possible
measures against gold seem confined to reactions whose
effects would not negatively effect gold's real value in
dollar terms.

I told my father's family in 1992 that this was going to
happen. My brother and sister have done nothing. Their
step-mother, my Mom, bless her heart, took my advice,
after ten years of unrelenting persuasion. She is glad
now. For you and me big things lie ahead. That which we
have known is behind us. We have only to witness and to
endure what is yet to come.
a nation of one
(01/04/2004; 20:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114590)
418

(wupy)

a nation of one
(01/04/2004; 20:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114591)
to goldquest (1/4/04; 19:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 114585)

Greenspan: "We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." [goldquest's emphasis.]

That is an overt proclamation that, in these areas, absolute power has been siezed. I believe that it necessarily implies that additional -and almost certainly very ruthless and profoundly constrictive- measures that have previously been developed are now in motion and will ultimately be put into place.
Gandalf the White
(01/04/2004; 20:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114592)
Everyone can read a "PICTURE" link this one ! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Can you say DOWN GAP OPENING for the US$ to new lows !
Click on the bottom right corner of the Chart at the above LINK and see why PHYSICAL GOLD is JUMPING in HK !
<;-)
Chris Powell
(01/04/2004; 21:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114593)
Greenspan in 1996 and this weekend
I would argue that, in San Diego, Greenspan may
have been going a lot farther than his comments
quoted from Tokyo in 1996. For the central bank
to influence the economy "if necessary in rare
circumstances, through direct intervention in
market events" -- the Tokyo comments -- seems
much different than intervening INDIRECTLY and
SURREPTITIOUSLY, through intermediaries, and
CONTINUOUSLY, as a CONSTANT POLICY, over
the course of many years, as has been the
case with the U.S. government's intervention
in the gold market and now, it seems increasingly,
thanks to GATA's recent research, with long bonds,
and even with certain commodities.
ax
(01/04/2004; 21:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114594)
WHAT IS REASON FOR SPIKE?


ANYONE KNOW WHY THE SPIKE OF GOLD UP/ USD DOWN? THIS AM IN
ASIA? There can be alot of reasons but I don't know of anything particularly new , or sudden just now. Does anyone?









Chris Powell
(01/04/2004; 21:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114595)
Reason for spike up in gold, down in dollar
http://www.jsmineset.com/Jim Sinclair attributes this Asian market
action to Fed Governor Bernanke's speech in
San Diego, which seems to assert the Fed's
belief that it can keep dollar interest rates
low forever. See Sinclair's commentary
headlined "Asia Tonight."

ax
(01/04/2004; 22:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114596)
MINE SET - THANKS, READ IT

THANKS CHRIS - I READ THE MINE SET.
specie-man
(01/04/2004; 22:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114597)
@steady - song quote
>>>
being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty!
some singer said something like that.
<<<

That was Neil Young, from his recent "Greendale" CD.
A masterpiece in my opinion (if you're a fan of that type of music).


mikal
(01/04/2004; 23:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114598)
Head
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/beam010504.shtmlSTOOL DAYS
HILLARY'S HEALTH CARE PLAN - RECONSIDERED
By: Roderick Beaman
Excerpt: "Hillary was given the chairmanship of the committee to develop a health care plan but it was Magaziner's baby.� The plan was comprehensive with suitable penalties for violations.�There was something in it for every interest group and even had a provision for appropriate penalties.� So that got my mind going and, as anyone who knows me will tell you, that's dangerous.�
Now Hillary is the junior senator from New York which also suffers with Charles Schumer. I figured maybe it's time to reconsider her health plan.�
One of the cornerstones of preventative health care is nutrition and one of the cornerstones of nutrition is fibre.�The sign of whether you are getting enough fibre, is if your stool floats.� If it doesn't float, you're not getting enough of fibre.
Well, we could have a brand new federal bureaucracy called the Stool Health Inspection Team (You do the acronym).� They could be outfitted with hats and coats emblazoned with the initials and a representative stationed in every public lavatory in the country.� Before anyone would flush, the inspector would go in and check to see if the stool floated.� If not, the individual would be fined.� I mean, after all, such an offense would be contributing to disease and possibly costing society, wouldn't it?� We could have reports to the Secretary for compliance as well as to the President.� �
The bureau chief could be called the S.H.I.T. Head.� Someone would shout, 'Oh, ----' and he could respond, 'Yes?'� The possibilities are mind boggling.� �
Actually, I though the whole thing was a bunch of... well, you get the point." ����
mikal
(01/04/2004; 23:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114599)
Bureaucratic heads
I have to agree with Mr. Beaman.
At least those bureaucrats aren't as empty-headed as some claim.
But they are experts at burying their head in the sand!
elevator guy
(01/04/2004; 23:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114600)
Conflicting scenarios?
Hi, everybody. Elevator Guy has been busy building a business, but now I am coming out of lurking with a question for anyone who cares to answer.

We all know the US dollar is being devalued right now, and that if oil moves large scale towards Euros, the Fed's stranglehold will be lost. Right so far? Many here post ominous prophecies of the demise of the USD as the pre-eminent reserve currency, and the decline of the US in general, massive inflation at home, gold's meteroric rise, etc, etc.

But meanwhile, the United States oil interests are feverishly working on maintaining and securing oil sources. Many of these ambitious undertakings have been documented, and need little proving. It is clear enough that the USA is manuevering to a position of strength, which is in keeping with the actions of any world power during their time in the sun. History is full of nations that were once prosperous through imperialsim, and as long as there are commodities to be gleaned from the far flung battelfields, the empire thrives. And if the USA still has the worlds' most powerful military machine, it is no surprise to see a grab for the prize of our industrialized time, which prize is oil.

So my question is, if the US finds all the oil it needs, will the USD still undergo what seems to be an inevitable and massive correction, foretold by Another as resulting in $30,000 gold? (Not that gold is worth more, but the real "value" of the dollar just becoming clear when its day of hedgemony has run its course)

On the one hand, its seems clear that the US Dollar will tumble like a house of cards, as the Euro moves to oil. This sea change would bring great changes to the lifestyle of average Americans, and a lessening of political power of the USA.

But if the USA can secure enough oil for its needs, is this end-game scenario gauranteed? Could plentiful oil stall the demise of the USD, and prolong the era of what Another calls the American experience?
Aristotle
(01/05/2004; 00:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114601)
My off-the-cuff answer for elevator guy
EG: "So my question is, if the US finds all the oil it needs, will the USD still undergo what seems to be an inevitable and massive correction ............. Could plentiful oil stall the demise of the USD?"

Bear in mind it isn't the demise of the USDollar that's in question per se (as a monetary accounting unit) but rather its use as an international Reserve Asset.

So I'll send the question back to you for reannalysis: if the U.S. by might secures oil specifically for its own needs, what in all of that would make the rest of the world feel compelled to reward that kind of imperialism with an unending continuation of the status quo -- that status being a willingness to finance America's chronic budget and trade deficits, a willingness to roll trade surplus dollar payments into U.S. bonds to help us fund this hypothetical oil-grabbing military machine of ours?

Orrrrrrrrrrr.... are you suggesting that we'd control sooooo much oil that we'd actually become a *NET* exporter in our balance of trade? Hey, now THAT might stall the demise of the ReserveDollar because then suddenly the world would find a need for spending them rather than simply eating them.

Our destination is already laid before us, and I believe the only thing that can be changed in this journey is the roughness of the trail we use in getting there. I'm working for a smoooooooooth transition from here to there. Hoping the same for all others.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Mr Gresham
(01/05/2004; 00:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114602)
What might have been
"For the saddest words of tongue or pen
The saddest are these: What might have been."

"Maud Muller", John Greenleaf Whittier

Perhaps it was the little bit of romantic military bravado I picked up from tales of Saladin and Richard while growing up.

Perhaps it was the greeting and warmth I received in Cairo (right after Camp David), when Americans were welcomed with smiles and handshakes. A Cairo policeman took me by the hand to introduce to his friends, to his favorite cafes and juice bars, and to prayer.

As different as our worlds are, it has always seemed to me that these emotive, expressive, and alert Arabic people would be good folks to have and keep as friends. Certainly whatever cost to doing that would be much less than having them as enemies.

What a waste. Just like the national debt, a burden that will be paid by our children and grandchildren, who will never understand why it was foisted upon them.
Aristotle
(01/05/2004; 00:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114603)
G'Morning Mr Gresham
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/420041/default.htmlYep. Good people.

On Another note, don'tcha just LOVE this guy?!!!

Belgian (1/4/04; 14:42:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114575)

Like oxygen it is.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Mr Gresham
(01/05/2004; 01:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114604)
elevator guy
"But if the USA can secure enough oil for its needs, "

It always strikes me when we speak of entire nations, but then advocate the operation of an international free market, the players in which are mostly the internationalized corporations who buy and sell the commodities we use.

To restate your premise in its more likely form, "If additional supplies of oil to the industrialized world are guaranteed free of OPEC embargo for a decade's longer duration, ..."

A greater supply means a lower price, and the nations most dependent on oil will feel less pain than otherwise, but the consumers of ALL nations will bid for the oil at its market price, and these will be the Chinese and Japanese with their prodigious savings, as well as the cash-strapped Americans.

The denominating currency of trade has always baffled me in its extent of impact. For all currencies are immediately exchangeable into whatever fiat (or PM in small quantity) you wish to hold.

But, to be the oil reserve currency means that there is a greater float of your dollars "in transit" on a daily basis, just to keep the world's trading accounts liquid. I still see this at base as a one-off benefit.

I've never seen the number giving the size of this float, but of course it represents a once-spent boon to the US fiat-issuers. And any contraction in that float brings home dollars to bid up prices here. Perhaps it is the reversal of trend that is the Euro's threat, as traders try to front-run a seachange?

But the mere provision of more oil, even through the pumps of Exxon or Chevron, does not guarantee a disproportionate benefit to US consumers, only a commensurate easing of whatever price shock lies ahead. The financial dynamics of the currency's overplayed hand, as Ari depicts, still remain.
Mr Gresham
(01/05/2004; 01:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114605)
G'night, Ari!
Hope you're not losing any sleep, as I get to Forum-reading after 11pm, open 8 new windows with nearly all the links given, and then start nodding off before I've looked at half of them.

yes, Belgian is a unique asset to our group. He brings and keeps before us (1) the European presence, (2) an inspired intellect that is always peering around the next corner of events, and (3) a focus on the early works given here by our mentors, which I am overdue for a re-visit to. In other words, I am ripe for some fresh insights from the years of early learning combined with recent events.

I think Belgian and I are similar in that I am a stubborn mind who will not just accept assertions made on repetition, witness the "reserve currency" doubt I've made below. If it was explained to me four years ago, it has not fully stuck, and will just have to find its way into my bag of "understandings" some other way.

Fortunately, it does not require fully understanding all these things in order to "get thee hence to a coin dealer", does it? Fortunate for me, for I am a "spoiled opportunity" type of investor if I see I've missed the bottom in something I was looking at getting.

I am glad I "got me some" and did not miss the bottom in this (although I could have used a little less bottoming -- that second one in 2001, well...)

Sleep, get us some.
Belgian
(01/05/2004; 02:06:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114606)
Re:
@mabry21 : Most Eurolanders, who are financially "connected", remain rather neutral towards Gold, for the time being. European savers, sub-consciously, feel more secure with our euro now, than in the good old days of European monetary angst and disunity.
Eurolanders can leave the planet's dollar-reserve "now" and save in their own, growing and stable, euro currency. Since Gold is still widely percepted as a dollar-thing...Eurolanders concentrate on their expanding euro first and are not overly exited about Gold.

There is only a small minority that suspects something Golden in a not so distant future. The coming euro-Gold connection is still a bit too untouchable for the majority.
Most individuals rush to Gold when the "fear" factor is dramatically on the the rise. A "stable" euro and relative stable prices are not of a nature to direct one's attention to a higher than normal, Physical Gold accumulation. Jobs / job security and entrepreneurial profits have a MUCH bigger priority now !
Savings are looking less for risk (since 2000) and go into a stable (euro) currency with reasonable IR compensations.

Many European goldbugs still remain firmly hooked to goldmine speculation. But something is changing about this old habbit. Financial advizers increasingly attrackt investors' attention to a growing percentage of *Physical* in their portfolio.

The main advantage of the POG not rising in euro is that the young and expanding euro is gaining on dept and keeps the more explicit Gold connection (concept) for a later phase in the $ > � transition process.

Keep bearing in mind that NOBODY is linking the present ongoing geo-political things to *** OIL *** and the dollar/euro/Gold - relations !!!

This brings me to a reflexion on "elevator guy"'s posting.
The dollar cannot and will never be allowed to grab all the remaining oil-reserves on our planet ! Most recent example is Georgia (pipeline corridor). The newly "installed" strong-(straw)man (puppet), after the ousting of Chevernadze, is married to a Dutch and political active.

The planet's resources MUST be "shared"...or else... !!!
White Rose
(01/05/2004; 06:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114607)
Silver is taking off up 28 cents to $6.20
and gold is up $3.40 from Friday close.
Zhisheng
(01/05/2004; 06:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114608)
Sharp skirmish.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1The battle for $419-$420 is on.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 06:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114609)
Silver
Since WR's post, Ag has jumped to 6.27! Au is at 419.1!

Wake up the dogs, we're in for a wild ride today!
steady
(01/05/2004; 07:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114611)
evolving revolving standing still yet moving forward
someone here said an ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold.
i can almost agree to that concept but how can u measure somethings value or worth related to itself.
yes i know gold is worth what someone will trade for it, but its value has to be fixed or once again we are back to the question whatis an ounce of gold worth, yea iknow its worth one ounce of gold but relative to what. i say relative to 20 ounces of siver.
so gold has to be valued in something else silver for there to ber consistency in the market othewrwiae gold would be in the same boat as teh federal reserve note is right now where its worth and value are floating changing everytime keyboard entries are made or exchanges take place, for we do not know the value of a doillar untill that precise moment the exchange takes place.
same with gold that has no anchor, its unit of account also floats and changes based upon the unanchored federal reserve note, now if the 1 ounce of gold was anchored to silver its value would be fixed and all that would change are the prices not the value of gold or silver. so in my book an ounce fo gold may equal an ounce of gold always but the value has to be fixed to something else besides an unancored reserve currency that flaots> i nominate siver.

now im confused and dont know where to go to find out the answers maybe someone can help me out.
when the world was on a bi metalic standard was there fractional banking?
did the bankers pay the depositor a pportion of the intrest the earned by lending the depositors money out?

is the fractional resreve system just a way the bankers add an extra layer to the circulating script to avoid converting your money to property?
damng more questions to be figured out?
thats whats great about the gold market there always seems to be something new and exciting to study.
especially the charts and how they just keep going up.

gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!

one thing we wont see theis year is the reintroduction of the ad campaign by coors lite...... rember it coors lite the silver bullet.
nope the long tenticals of tptb will nix any ad campaign by any ,marketing company in committie as thats how deep there power extends.

last year i really thought mcdonalds would reinstitute the golden arches ad campaign but they didnt maybe this year!
Operative
(01/05/2004; 07:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114612)
Prepare The Colors
Ladies and Gentlemen, would the proper person(s) bring the colors forward as we prepare to mark the spot on our trail known as the 420 ridge. I am scouting a suitable site to raise the flag at this very moment. And while the land forces prevail, a smilar battle is being fought at sea:

Thanking Mr. Greenspan for his continued folly in speech and deed as evidenced over the weekend. The debtberg has just impacted the side of the great dollar ship. May the band strike up the first cords as the deck chairs are rearranged by the several new degrees of incline. Golden lifejacket anyone? Boarding in the Silver Lifeboat is now announced.

If the action holds, I may have to rethink my attitude towards that first day known as monday.

Zhisheng
(01/05/2004; 07:14:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114613)
$420 cash penetrated.
A golden blizzard.
steady
(01/05/2004; 07:21:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114614)
ratio
will silver be able to break into new low ground on the silver gold ratio, its as low as its been sinve i started keeping track 7 months ago, is a breakdown in the ratio price emminent or will we get a increase , depends on the pog as the pog is dragging silver higher indicating that yes indeed the market, the planet, the economic system is looking for an honest policy as honesty is the best policy in earthly econiomic matters.
silver and gold fit the bill to a tee. help spread the word, its getting easier to converse with people now.
rember 2 3 years ago when trying to esplain what was happening we where looked at like what u been smoking, or where given looks of indignation and almost even ridiculed and shuinned, well f them and the horse they rode in on. when they come back and ask it becomes easier to demonstrate whats going on.
you know it takes faith to be a gold bug but the faith one has to give out is sure alot easier than the faith one has to give to the govt for using there script, gold is way easier to trust. so do not despair when esplaning to others and u get shunned they will come around. rember its one mind at a time and every no brings the next yes that much closer.
working to change peoples mind is difficult you just have to present the info in 3 easy steps as the mind works good with three easy thuing s to rember, gold is money, gold is property and gold is no one elses liability if u get them to understand that then , well then they are on the way to discovering the secret of ecoism and that is gold accumulation is not only cool but proftable as well!
steady
(01/05/2004; 07:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114615)
gold smoke
gold smoking 420?

hahahahahahahhahahahah
Operative
(01/05/2004; 07:32:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114616)
Twas A Kodak Moment
Our favorite cannine just ran past the 420 and found his morning relief, so to speak, at the 422.3. Think I will take a rest after the heart pounding run up the trail this morning. Anyone have an extra pair of clean socks? Preferably the ones with silver thread that help fight off those smelly bacteria. Looks like we have a lot of climbing to do in this New Year. Phew! Taking a rest now.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 08:18:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114617)
Auto Show
The big 3 are serious. The Crossfire, Corvette and Mustang all look great. The '05 6-liter 'vette is 5" shorter with 2" longer wheelbase and +50HP over '04. The new 'stang looks like a sleek Steve McQueen Bullitt retro from 1969.

Lots of places to spend those Au and Ag profits!!!!
steady
(01/05/2004; 08:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114618)
noise
metal heads smoking thru the 420s. correction tomorrow!
Zhisheng
(01/05/2004; 08:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114619)
$6 rule proof (test).
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1The dollar is now up $7.50 on the day.

Very seldom, if at all, has gold risen much more than $6 in any given day since the birth of the present bull market. If it does today, it could indicate a change in the strategy of the major shorts.
Zhisheng
(01/05/2004; 08:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114620)
Oops--that's GOLD up $7.50.
Not the dollar.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 09:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114621)
DX & Au
@ Zhisheng

Sho'nuff. The dollar is working on DOWN 1.0%

So much for orderly decline.

Keep jumping Spot and Spike. Looking GOOD!

The last day of the Santa Claus rally is bringing you boyz dog bisquits.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 09:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114622)
Silver on CNBC
Hey Rich

Bob Pisani just called silver the superstar of the day at $6.25!
CoBra(too)
(01/05/2004; 09:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114623)
Gold Wars - by Ferdi Lips
Is now available in German and goes by the title "Die Gold Verschw�rung" - The Gold Conspiracy!

I haven't read it yet - only the English version, though I was told that there are additional chapters. One of those chapters deals with the Bundebank's gold. Apparently, half of the 3.400 tons are swapped, while the rest seems gone. Can that be substantiated? I don't know?

We know, though, that 1.700 tons are possibly in deep storage at West Point - where is the rest? And why are BuBa officials keep yapping about a larger share in gold sales in any renewal of a "WA"?

Either way, as I can't complain on SPOT and SPIKE's performance today, a potentially major scandal is brewing in Germany's financial circles. It seems even "Der Spiegel" got word of it.

... and we'll be sending out "Die Goldverschw�rung" to all pertinent financial papers in the area.

Interesting times, indeed! There may be less physical left than even our pro gold group has envisioned.

Prosit - and cheers for 2004 - cb2

Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 09:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114624)
Auto show
@ Cobra(too)

Not to ignore the fine products on the east bank of the pond, Porsche unveiled the 2005 Carrera Turbo - looks a lot like the DC Viper, and really hauls butt, as we say over here!

CNBC has interviewed Auto CEO's today at the Detroit auto show.

Too many cool toys, need more Au profits!!
steady
(01/05/2004; 09:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114625)
how the bat was got!
how fing classic was that.
ratio is definetly a genious.

he had me quickly and quitely walk thru comics floor along the way he had me drop 4 sacagawee dollars.
he then watched who picked em up, it was funny as on one occasion the three traders did a three stoges type of boink as they rushed to bend over and pick up the fake gold coin, it was almost sad as it was funny to see em so decieved. payback is a bitch.
after that lil comedy was over on the comics floor the plan went into effect.
since ratios have become all the rage in helping to esplain whats happening in the gold silver world, ratio then had put into his 4 pockets 11 dimes in one, 3 half dollars in another 5 qtrs in the back pocket and finally 22 nickles. he almost looked like a clown walking onto the comic floor with his pockets so bulgy and the ear to ear grin across his face , pluss due to it being winter and our running thru thr fridig air to get this nobel deed done his nose was as crimson as the federal reserve notes chart has been red, and i mean very red.

see since honesty has come to the forefront of human minds recently. the dealers on comics wanted to be honest and return the coins free of charge , the right thing to do, but them errouniously thinking the coins where gold wanted something in return for them. even though honesty is at the forefront of many minds and making it into everyday vernacular where it properly belongs, the concept is not fully understood and implaneted yet on an economic basis where everyone is subjected to the same monetary fairnes. this has to trickle up from the masses for the few to understand as the weight of the masses, can out weigh the weight of the few cause they keep giving away free tokens to buy gold with. its a self perpetuating self defeating proposition either way you look at it. from the point of paying debt with debt ( dumb) or giving free tokens away to buy real money (dumber)

so when ratio went into his explanation of the ratio he woulds apply to getting his coins back and of course empting his pockets out all eyes perked up at the commotion. it was then that i got the six dollar bat and dodged my way out of there like the men of old new york, brooklyn side, use to do with the street cars, thats why the brooklyn dodgers where named dodgers as omalley wanted players nimble and quick like the men of the streets on ny.

that bat has now been successfully passed off and is on the way to the shreader in michigan!

the 6 dollar rule broken as gold smokes 420!

anyway he offered a mixture of coins all totalling a lil over 1.10 to get the dealers thinking they where getting a better where allover it, like two lovers reunited after a long absence. so anyway it cost us less than one gram of gold to let the price rise by two federal reserve notes a pretty good trade dont ya think.

hey you part time paper pushing gold slackers over at comics, who is the laugh on now!
a nation of one
(01/05/2004; 09:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114626)
pog

In my post of (1/2/04; 20:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114501), I wrote: "my charting indicates that a NEW trading range is in force right now, above a line drawn through the bottoms of April 2003 and July 2003, and under a line drawn parallel to it, through the top of May 2003. This channel is narrower and more steeply inclined than the previous one. Right now its bottom is around 377, and its top is near 417. Pog therefore is now at the top of this new trading channel, and whether it breaks out on the upside, or stays within this channel, we are soon to see."

This morning pog broke out of this channel on the upside.
Jon
(01/05/2004; 09:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114627)
Barrick potential losses on hedge
With strong run-up in gold price why is ABX also running strong? Seems to conflict w/ recent and seemingly very sensible comments on this site past couple of weeks. Would sincerely appreciate comments. Thanks.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 09:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114628)
The Hammer
Au dropped to 421.3. Here comes the "hammo"; hold on tight! Whoever just sold for 421.30 is gonna be sorry. Maybe we'll let 'em back in at 425?
Clink!
(01/05/2004; 09:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114629)
@ Goldilox
A couple of months ago, I posted a Bizarro cartoon where a salesman is showing a couple a HUMUNGOUS SUV in the showroom. The caption read "And the best thing is, when gas hits eight bucks a gallon, you can put it up on blocks and the whole family can live in it."

That's an advantage that the cars you mention don't have ! For me, the serious manufacturers are Honda and Toyota with their hybrids, but that's the geek in me drooling over the high-performance engine system.

Oh, you're just going on the looks ? Yeah, I may agree with you there. And they will have the additional value of rarety when the gas runs out. I had a friend in Dallas who bought a screamer back in '74 - I can't remember the make and model, but it was bright orange with a rear tail that was higher than the roofline and a big engine. He bought it new at just over half original sticker - no-one wanted gas guzzlers at the time, and it had been on the lot for a year. Even though gas prices came down again, he still had problems getting gas because it needed aviation grade and he had to drive to the airport to get it !

C!
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 10:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114630)
gas guzzlers
@ Clink

I had a '93 vette ragtop and it tickled me to tell people I got 18-24 city/hwy MPG with 100 more HP than my pickup truck that averages 14MPG.

However, I got rear-ended in my 10 yr old Silverado this New Years' eve, and destroying the drunk's front end (a Japanese mini-truck) only disturbed a little dirt on my steel bumper. Raise my insurance rates if you must, but my Sherman tank kept me safe once again. Two soldiers dying in a battle zone make headlines, but 55,000 people killed on the "safe" highways in fuel efficient sardine cans is a yawner!
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 10:17:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114631)
Successful Defense
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Looks like the second attack is failing as well. . . back above 423.
Pizz
(01/05/2004; 10:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114632)
Gas Guzzlers
Engineering and production were all designed a few years back with sub $25.00 oil.

Remember when the pundents used to say that no sustainable recovery could happen unless oil went back to the teens?

Well, Detroit and a few other automakers gambled on it.

We shall see. . . .

Pizz
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 11:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114633)
Resistance
Some mighty powerful resistance at $424!!!!

Open was at $414.x, so $9+ is a good day and beats the old "$6.50 limit". If we break through $424 with any "vigor", Sinclair's $431 should be the next stop.

Go for the gold!
White Rose
(01/05/2004; 11:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114634)
The world turned upside down
Higher gold prices are turning things upside down. The famous 6 dollar rule has been turned upside down to become the 9 dollar rule. Nice.
Pizz
(01/05/2004; 11:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114635)
Most orderly free-fall in History
At this rate we'll have a 0 dollar by March 31. . .

Let's see, then gold should be ~ and silver ~/16.

Hmm, probably won't happen exactly.. . .

Pizz
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 11:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114636)
Six to be Nine Observation
@ White Rose-

The most astute observation of the day!!!

Jimi Hendrix:

So if 6 ... turned out to be 9... I don't mind... I don't mind.

(:> Goldilox
Jacob Marley
(01/05/2004; 11:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114637)
Jon - Barrick
Jon - "...seemingly very sensible comments..." -- 2 things - 1) most of us don't really know the details of Barrick's derivatives playbook. They are not plain vanilla, and are part of complex private business transactions. What we must know is that Barrick is not stupid. People make seemingly sensible comments that are sensible only when viewed in a framework that supports them. Add new variables and the other side of the equal sign changes. We don't know for real just how well or poorly Barrick has done on its hedges. But again, they are not stupid. They are also not novice. Could they have made some serious mistakes? Sure, but we don't know yet, and we don't know if they are going to be able to get help in fixing them. They are a business and they are trying to survive. Personally, I doubt they were caught with their pants down. If lilliputians like us could read the tea leaves, and anticipate a turnaround in the gold arena, it would surprise me endlessly to see a seasoned veteran like Barrick caught completely unawares.

And, 2) most funds and big money managers cannot/will not buy into smaller (less liquid) issues (at least not at the outset, where they are building the core of their holdings, if they are anticipating a bull run). They use basic thinking: gold goes up, therefore buy big senior (mostly NA) mines (safer). They will buy up your Barricks, Newmonts, Placer Domes, etc., because of their liquidity. They don't even care much about the fundamentals, since this is mostly a momentum play anyway. They need to be able to buy something that can absorb millions of shares transactions without lots of waves, and they need something that trades high volumes of options so they can hedge their bets.

Now Barrick's share price is doing Ok, but it's not by any stretch outperforming the other seniors that have less exposure to forwarded sales that are now at lower than market prices. It seems to me by casual observation that Barrick is doing about what we would expect of it - buyers are pricing into it a safety premium (established senior, liquid issue), but discounting its potential to capitalize on a rising gold price. We shall see - no?
Operative
(01/05/2004; 11:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114638)
TOCOM Need Not Apply
Japan might as well take the night off because it looks like Tocom will be locked limit up from the start. Maybe they can spend this evening propping up the US Dollar? How about it Japan? Do you feel lucky?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/05/2004; 11:47:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114639)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Precious metals surge higher on a weaker US dollar and comments by Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke this weekend. The outlook is very good on the first day of trading in 2004. There is no end in sight for the falling dollar and some predict that gold (the "anti-dollar") will move as high as $1700 an ounce while others look at the mid $400 to $500 area this year. I would not be surprised to see $650 or higher myself. The "real" data and soaring deficits suggest that the precious metals can only move higher as demand increases.

Jon H. Warner
Melting Pot
(01/05/2004; 11:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114640)
Greenspan-More asset bubbles to come, can't say when
http://www.forbes.com/technology/sciences/newswire/2004/01/03/rtr1196992.htmlSAN DIEGO, Jan 3 (Reuters) - More asset bubbles like the one in the late 1990s, when U.S. stock prices soared and then collapsed, will happen because they are a product of human nature, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Saturday.

Answering questions before the American Economic Association, Greenspan said such a bubble may not occur for some time because the pain of the losses that investors suffered will linger.

"We don't have to worry too much about the emergence of real bubbles again for a while because it takes a number of years for the trauma of the collapse to wear off...but at some point in the future, I don't know when, we are going to get another bubble," He said.

"The reason we are going to get another bubble is because it is built into human personality, it's the way we evaluate things and there is a tendency for us to go on irrespective of historical experiences," he added.

Greenspan said policymakers need to take note that assets like stocks and real estate are becoming an increasingly important part of people's wealth.

As a result, they will have to consider variations in asset prices as a factor in guiding policymaking and possibly consider whether the time-frame they use for setting monetary policy is appropriate.

"Now...we observe that every time we move (U.S. interest rates) or even indicate that we might move, we can see the structure of the yield curve change," Greenspan said, referring to the pattern of long- and short-term interest rates that make up a yield curve.

"That is beginning to tell us that as we start on any particular pattern of monetary policy, we have to ask ourselves where does it end and I submit to you that the time-frame that that question was answered 20, 30, 40 years ago is much shorter than it will be 10 years from today," he added.

Separately, the Fed chief said it was difficult to fully understand the current exceptionally high rates of productivity, or hourly output per worker. But he said such rates, which topped 9 percent in the third quarter, were unlikely to continue.

"In an advanced country such as the United States -- an advanced technological country on the cutting-edge of technology, we .. have never experienced productivity growth significantly in excess of 3 percent," Greenspan noted.

EOM

Greenspan never seems to address the cause of asset bubbles does he? Dollar gaining strength as we move into the COMEX close....these guys never give it a rest do they?

elevator guy
(01/05/2004; 11:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114641)
Ari 114601
Thanks for your reply.

If oil fuels our industrialized economy, then cheaper oil would make the US economic engine burn brighter?

So, yes, the thought did occur to me that if the US maintains a "cheap" oil supply, the negative effects of the Euro moving to oil, and the resultant correction in the USD might be mitigated. The avalanche of dumped US dollars will still come, but economic strength provided by cheap oil might generate enough prosperity to reduce the impact.

What do I know? Hey, you need an elevator in your house? I can help you with that.
Cometose
(01/05/2004; 12:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114642)
Canadian DOllar
Just before the last turn up in the Canadian Dollar the premiums for March June and September (price differentials) became very narrow. Now that it has made a very respectable move northward .......those margins between premiums for the stated months are again very narrow....
perhaps indicating another turn (south this time)
If this type of footprint verifies , it will make this market very trackable.....
I think Tim Wood said overthe weekend that the Dollar was headed for 83...
John Templeton ...said a 40% drop is in order....
that would be appx 60......and in canadian perhaps up as much......GO Warren and keep those footprints uncovered...
elevator guy
(01/05/2004; 12:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114643)
Mr Gresham 114604
Thnaks fo ryour reply.

"To restate your premise in its more likely form, "If additional supplies of oil to the industrialized world are guaranteed free of OPEC embargo for a decade's longer duration, ...""

Yeah, thats it, how did you know? You must have ESPN. :)

"The financial dynamics of the currency's overplayed hand, as Ari depicts, still remain."

I hear you to say that even if cheap oil (free of embargo) can prop up the US economy for a time, it will not stop the demise of the USD oil-hedgemony. So it would seem that the important thing for little folks such as myself to do is to protect earned value by moving USD's into tangible assets such as gold, and maybe diversifying into some Euros? (At least while they are appreciating against the USD)

Here is a more drastic scenario. While it is not my vision of what I'd like to see happen, it is a possibility, given the ambitious nature of those at the helm.

What if TPTB who use the US military might for their purposes were to launch a full-scale, multi-pronged attack on all known ME oil reserves? Some nations might be "managed" by toppling the government by assasination, then installing puppets, while other nations might require military intervention and defacto annexation. Nations that otherwise might rise to oppose these actions could be brought in as partners, effectively paying them off, and avoiding war on multiple fronts. The war on terrorism could provide sufficient media spin cover to keep the public in support. By whatever means, control the oil- whether political, military, subtrefuge, et al.

What's to stop them from doing so? If the powers behind the Federal Reserve are the primary benfactors of the USD reserve status, (and we know they ain't so dumb as not to see the Euro moving toward oil), then (apart from the little people) they stand the most to lose if the USD tumbles. (Unless they are printing Euros now). They have the influence to manuever the US oil industry to a position where its hedgemony could continue. Would those with the right of seniorage just abdicate their privelidged postion without firing a shot accross the bow of the Euro by controlling oil with military force? Will they just sit and watch their USD empire crumble?






Belgian
(01/05/2004; 12:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114644)
@ Jon
Your question about ABX. Same question goes for other miners with big Gold forward sales...Cambior, Ashanti, Anglogold. These miners are still there and mining.
Your same question goes for these miners' specific bankers (BB). JP Morgan/Chase is still there and banking. Your question also goes for those CBs that supposedly lost 10 to 15,000 tonnes of goldreserves, for ever. No CB scandalitis, yet.

Are we withnessing a "gigantic" and "succesfull" cover-up of a large scale Gold drama...? Or,...are we completely in the dark about the extreme "flexibility" and real goals of those collusive entities...goldminers, BBs and CBs ???

Or is the reality something in between those extremes ?
Was there suddenly a rift between all those that kept supporting the dollar-reserve...resulting in the formation of two different camps ($-�) with opposite views on Gold ?
I do suspect strongly that this is somewhat closer to the real secret Gold story.

If and when Gold would come back as a wealth asset in a Free market, underground Gold will still needed to be mined and there is no need to let those miners eventually go broke. Gold has always been mined (5,000 years) under whatever circumstances. Central banks can print ad nauseum as to prevent bank defaulting. And the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) is still acting as a CB's watchdog and organizer of the goldreserve reshufflements.

I'm not impressed, anymore, by the rise and fall of stock-prices or stockmarket stabilizations. This disproportionate financial dogtail has become an instrument in the hands of a strong brotherhood/fraternity. I don't know how or when this story will evolve and/or end ? Look at what is happening at present. A declining dollar exchange rate and the world's biggest stock market...a way overvalued stock market, rises...RISES, as to compensate for the declining dollar-world-currency !? How does one explain such a paradox ?

A possible answer to your ABX question : How much trust do you, personally, have left in the Freedom (objectivity) of these financial markets (casino) of today ? How can you possibly "value" correctly, any enterprise under the present circumstances (Parmalat-patat) and a very uncertain-unreliable future ? Good luck to you, Jon.
Kilo
(01/05/2004; 12:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114645)
Steady - It's ALL relative
Everything is valued in relation to everything else. There is just no way around it. Gold, silver, the dollar, the euro, etc. are all basicly "theories of relative value". Whatever is being presently used as the "standard" is usually what we all look to for valuation, which unfortunately in most peoples eyes is the dollar. "How much is it worth?" more often than not is a question asking the dollar value of the particular item. There can never be a truly "anchored" standard unless it is artificially instituted through government decree or "fiat", for the simple reason that all things vary in value in relation to all other things on a constant basis. It's never a matter of valuing a specific thing against itself (what is gold worth in gold terms?), but as a constantly changing ratio against all other things. There is nothing short of government edict or overall free-market agreement that will ever set one object as "THE STANDARD", and still, everything will vary in relative value to that standard, unless that additional object is also proclaimed as a relative standard, as was the silver/gold ratio of years past.

You say "gold related to silver", but which one is increasing or decreasing in value at the moment, relative to the other, if both are being used as the "standard" ? Everything in relation to everything, over time, is simply in a constant flux, and the "exchange rate" doesn't really matter until the exchange itself is consumated.

".......so gold has to be valued in something else (silver) for there to be consistency in the market otherwise gold would be in the same boat as the federal reserve note is right now where its worth and value are floating changing everytime keyboard entries are made or exchanges take place, for we do not know the value of a dollar untill that precise moment the exchange takes place......"

Your statement makes a little more sense once you understand the foregoing. Everything "IS" valued in everything else, where exchange valuations are concerned.

But this all brings us to the obvious question..... "WHICH REALLY IS THE STANDARD", the dollar or the gold? Gold, supposedly being a "non-monetary" commodity these days, sure seems to be mirroring the dollar in it's fall against other currencies. Does this make gold a currency, or perhaps more of a "standard" than TPTB would like to admit?

On the other hand, if you "fixed" the values of gold and silver relative to each other, you basicly end up with just another bi-metallic standard, nothing that hasn't been tried in the past. But the values of the two metals are then "fixed" only in relation to each other, and not necessarily everything else. The "everything else" would just continue to fluctuate in relation to the gold AND silver.

Economics is a simple balancing act where the big picture is concerned. The more of anything there is available, the less it is worth..... i.e. the dilution effect. But what if two things increase in availability in relation to each other? From a practical standpoint, what you have is basicly a wash. Then supply and demand fundamentals come into play, along with vast variations in the "standard supply". In most cases, the least fluctuating commodity make the best "standard", or best "anchor" for all other items to be compared to.

Suppose for a moment that the money (currency) supply were suddenly placed on hold, or FIXED at it's current level. For all practical purposed, inflation would stop dead in it's tracks. The money supply and the "everything else" supply would have a fixed ratio at that point, so no need for rising prices to make up for "money dilution" problems, i.e. "inflation".

Too many times I think we all fall into the trap of thinking there has to be ONE standard that all other value is judged by or compared to. That has never been the case, other than on a temporary and very artificial basis.

So, what any specific item is "worth" is simply ITSELF, and until a trade is made "out" of one item and "in" to another, relative valuations are nothing more than a constant "pricing game" that have no meaning whatsoever except at that particular moment in time that the two (or more) items are compared.

You say you nominate silver for a comparative anchored value to gold. But what does that really accomplish than to create another artificial valuation or market?

The real problem with fractional banking is that it is, out of necessity, "ever expanding". If we used a genuine and true "fixed standard" that never increased in availability (or even had a restricted increase in availability), then fractional reserve banking would be an impossibility without the overall world economy eventually hitting the wall full force. Unlimited expansion of any commodity that is restricted in nature (gold/silver) is obviously an impossibility, and that is the reason (or excuse) that fiat paper currencies were born.

If we ever were to have a true "anchor" where our money supply is concerned, THEN everything else would be fluctuating in "price" or value in relation to that standard. As production of consumer goods increased, their "prices" would come down to "balance" with the availability of the money supply used to purchase those same goods. But as the world is today, we have no fixed financial standard. That would be too much of a burden on the banksters and create a situation where they would actually have to do something constructive to increase their stranglehold on the people's finances.


Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 13:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114646)
$ vs euro oil
@ Elevator Guy

You wrote "Would those with the right of seniorage just abdicate their privelidged postion without firing a shot accross the bow of the Euro by controlling oil with military force?"

Given the complete lack of cooperation of the entire euro block in Iraq (due to their heavy investment in the status quo of Iraqi oil), I would say that shot has already been fired.

Libya has returned fire by capitulating to UN inspections. Smart move on their part, as US PTB must now choose between jumping into Libyan oil business "behind" the euro block or declaring WMD inspection fraud one more time as motivation for invasion and annexation.
R Powell
(01/05/2004; 13:25:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114647)
What a day !
Goldilox, Bob Pisani may have called silver the superstar of the day but did he have any explanation as to why? other than the declining US dollar. Perhaps a good reporter just accurately reports facts. Given the speed of the move, I'll guess that some floor trader will tell us that existing open buy orders were triggered immediately upon the open. Silver was up $05.5 this morning at 6:00 AM, EST. Then I had to go to work. Boy, I was one happy camper when I got home and saw the day's close!

CoBra(too), I think you will enjoy Mr. Lips's "Gold Wars" but you won't learn too much that you don't already know. Do you know Mr. Lips?

Jon, what if Barrick took the money it received from the short sales and spent that money buying other smaller mine operations and/or otherwise improving (making more cost efficient) its existing operations. Thus it may have more gold now to deliver into the forward sales. I don't know that this is true, just speculation. Also, what if the newly acquired gold is just barely profitable even when delivered into the forward sales. Now, after perhaps some years' worth of delivery of this newly acquired gold into those forward sales, finally the debt is paid. What has Barrick gained? It will still own the now paid for new mining operations. Will ABX get full price for selling that new gold? No, but a few years of less profitable delivery to pay of the bill for new or improved operations may not be the worse business move. A small profit for now but fully paid for gold to deliver in perhaps 2005 when gold is $4,032/ounce.
Food for thought?
rich

Shapur
(01/05/2004; 14:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114648)
Question to anyone on the Gold Trail
With the euro up higher than ever and the dollar in a confirmed downtrend, reflexively gold and now silver in solid uptrends--the gold dinar under way--inflation in raw materials--excess governement spending--inflating currencies on a global scale--jobs exported from the west to the east--stock markets reflating--housing overdone--wars and terrorism---interest rates low on a global basis---

when will all the paper burn ????

Basically my question is: Where are we on the timeline?
It seems like a good time to get our bearings so much has developed from 2001 to the present---

A trail pitstop and mini meeting may be in order---

AND HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 14:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114649)
401k cashouts on the rise
snippit:

"Cashing out has long been most common among workers with small balances, and it remains so, the survey found. Some 87 percent of workers with accounts of less than $5,000 opted to take cash, as did nearly three-quarters of those with balances between $5,000 and $10,000. But even as balances approached $50,000 the survey found one in five workers taking the cash, and even among accounts of $80,000 to $89,000 some 10 percent of job changers cashed out.

The majority of those who did not cash out rolled their balances over into individual retirement accounts. Others left the money with their previous employer or transferred it to their new employer's plan. All of those moves avoid taxes and penalties and allow the money to continue growing tax-deferred.

The study did not look at what workers did with cash when they took it, but Stacy Schaus, a consultant with Hewitt Associates, the benefits consulting firm that did the study, said anecdotal evidence suggests most of it went for such things as living expenses and credit card debt."

Goldilox:

More bonepile economics. The rate of cashouts increased most on larger balance accounts. As these are normally the higher paid and/or longest seniority employees, it speaks volumes to the long term unemployment issues. GWB has actually enabled this behavior with lower tax rates.

Lower rates added to lower (or no) income reduce the penalties for early wthdrawal substantially. For the unemployed, conversion of IRA to Roth IRA is cheaper with lower tax rates, with expectations of NO additional taxation on earnings after five years in Roth plan.

dem bones, dem bones . . .
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 14:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114650)
401k
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2333865sorry, here is the link.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 14:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114651)
Trail Pit Stop
@ Shapur

You might want to review the posts from 1/1/04 and 1/2/04, as a number of posts from those days focused on reflections and predictions.
Operative
(01/05/2004; 15:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114652)
Euro Will Be Top Currency When Asia Says So:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&sid=a.bjy2wz24yY&refer=columnist_pesekEuro Will Be Top Currency When Asia Says So:
Snip:

Question is, when will the euro supplant the dollar as the No. 1 global currency? Answer: When Asia says so. Central banks in this region hold vast amounts of dollar assets, meaning they'll decide the dollar's fate. And monetary authorities here are still overwhelmingly invested in dollars.

What signs should investors who are wondering when Asia will buy fewer dollars be looking for? For one, the end of currency pegs in the region, which would give central banks less reason to horde dollars. Currencies officially pegged to the dollar include China's, Hong Kong's and Malaysia's; de facto ones include Japan's.

Comment: This article gives a good indication of where gold/silver are headed by discussing one of our favorite themes; the US Dollar.
CoBra(too)
(01/05/2004; 15:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114653)
Ferdi Lips @ R. Powell
Hello Rich, I've read Gold Wars and used to know Ferdi back in the 70's, when he just became founding manager of Rotschild Bank in Zurich. Have been following him rather closely since, though haven't met him personally again in recent years. - And I fully concur, a great read!

The German version - Gold-Verschw�rung - just was published a few months back and apparently has a few additional chapters. I've been referring to a chapter concerning the question how much, if any BuBank gold is left.

Great day for PM's today 420 AU seems to become the new base an as AG has even done better, I do feel we might be off to the races. In terms of AG, I've been acquiring old 2 SFR's ( 2 Swiss Franc coins minted before 1969) with a high silver content. Hard to get, alas no premium and no VAT, since its still currency, not to say legal tender. The only way to play the silver bullion game in EU without 20% VAT - at least as far as I've researched.

Are the PM's starting to outperform against all currencies and not only vis a vis the US dollar?
I guess this will be the crucial question for the further performance of gold. If yes, and I would answer "for sure", then we'll see much more participation from countries, who's currencies have risen, some even substantially as the ZAR and �. Even commodity based currencies will see the bright light of gold and some silver shining upon their path.

If that's so, we'll probably advance to the second upleg of the gold bull market during 2004. A very powerful move, whereby PM's are leaving behind the shackles of currency denominations and will start to re-value goods and services on their own "real" terms once again.

... and that's pretty much all I'd be asking for, as all else seems a given.

Cheers again - cb2
Aristotle
(01/05/2004; 15:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114654)
Awesome post, Sir Kilo
You're one of what seems like a precious few who GET it. Now you have an obligation to your fellow man, Mister!! Spread the word, and don't be shy about speaking up more often!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Pizz
(01/05/2004; 16:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114655)
real time gold chart - free
http://www.forex-markets.com/charts.htmJust ran accross this over at forex. all the currency cross plus gold and silver.

Web based chart can be detatched and put in a corner of your screen. . .looks pretty good to me, says it's real time, since I don't subscribe to commodities data. . .

Besides, fun watchin when they go up. . .(smile)

Pizz
CoBra(too)
(01/05/2004; 16:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114656)
Snippet from todays MIDAS - Coincidence?
Ferdinand Lips
December 22, 2003

Personal Letter to:
Members of the Swiss Federal Council
Members of Parliament
Supervisory Council of the Swiss National Bank
Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank
200 selected opinion leaders of Switzerland

Re: Festive Season, World Crises and the Welfare of Citizens and the State

Gentlemen:

Here is my most recent book, The Gold-Conspiracy. First of all, let me say why a retired Swiss banker took such an initiative and why you should study this book in your own interest and in the interests of our country.

Since 1968, when I was part of the management team that formed the Rothschild Bank AG, Zurich, and later in 1989, when I formed Bank Lips AG, my main endeavour was always to invest my clients� wealth prudently, to maintain safety of principal, and to achieve capital growth.

To a much greater extent, this is the task of our Nationalbank and of our politicians, because they are charged with the much bigger task of managing our nation's social security systems. They are responsible for investing the national savings for old age retirement and for safeguarding our nation's patrimony, built up over many generations, in order to transmit it to successive generations. This is an increasingly difficult task since our current fraudulent irredeemable-paper-ticket-fiat monetary system does not allow for sound politics. Workers and pensioners eventually suffer most under this regime.

An uninformed Federal Government, an uninformed Swiss parliament and either incompetent or already involved in the international gold-price-manipulation scheme, the Swiss National Bank finished the job of selling a great part of the Swiss gold reserve by investing the proceeds mainly in soon-to-be worthless U.S. "dollars." I put the word dollars in quotation marks because they are no longer in conformity with the dollars mentioned in the U.S. Constitution. What were those who must have been, or who should have been, aware of the dimension of this fatal decision thinking?

In any discussion of the future of gold, or the price of gold, the first thing that must be acknowledged is that gold is a political metal for the simple reason that gold, in its historical role as a currency, is fundamentally incompatible with the modern financial system.

Up until August 15, 1971, there was never a period when no paper currency was linked to gold. The history of money is replete with instances of currency debasement, devaluations, coin clipping, printing, debt defaults, other fraudulent practices, and bankruptcies. But in prior times, one could always escape to a currency whose gold backing remained intact.

Since 1971, when President Nixon unilaterally defaulted on the U.S. sovereign obligation to pay an ounce of gold for $35, with the exception of the Swiss franc until 1996, there is no escape because, in accordance with the 1978 modifications to the IMF's Articles of Agreement (Section 4-2-b), no currency of any member country may be linked to gold. All economic, monetary, and financial crises of the past 30 years flow from the Nixon default.

The global irredeemable-paper-ticket-token currency system is very young. Its continued functioning depends on the belief that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be repaid and serviced along the way. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore the foundations of the modern financial system is a rise (especially a sharp rise) in the U.S. dollar price of gold. This is the real reason why Switzerland was persuaded into disposing of half of its gold.

The prosperity of the Swiss banking system, the Swiss insurance industry and the Swiss economy in general was based on its currency being tied to gold. As a consequence, the Swiss franc was considered the strongest currency in the world. Concomitantly, the Swiss banking industry gained international trust and admiration. That trust is now being irresponsibly wasted by uninformed organizations.

Russia and other oil producing countries are beginning to sell their oil for euros. This is extremely negative for the dollar because it reduces demand. Furthermore, some of the world's best-informed investors, such as Sir John Templeton, Warren Buffett and George Soros, are expecting the "dollar" to lose purchasing power.

Regardless, the Swiss National Bank continues to squander Switzerland's golden treasure, which had been built up by generations of hardworking Swiss under severe privations. The proceeds of the sales are "invested" in soon-to-be worthless "dollars," which the U.S. banking system, thanks to its "exorbitant privilege," as General de Gaulle called it, is creating daily out of thin air by the billions. It is about time that our authorities realize that the best alternative, and the free-market choice, to irredeemable paper-ticket-fiat money is gold.

Even in a global world one needs reserves to be respected. For 15 years, the Swiss have experienced an estranged government that does not respect for the will of the people and which is striving to become part of the EU. Switzerland is becoming financially weakened; its social systems are beginning to tumble, and savings are declining. The country simply will not be in a position to face looming economic and financial dangers. This is only because a dishonest elite has been lulled into a false sense of security and either does not know what it is doing or is consciously doing everything to weaken and to sell out our country.

I wish that during the coming festive season you will find the leisure to read Chapter VII about Switzerland. Since I no longer have confidence in our institutions, I will make my analysis known and it will be my pleasure if I can give some inspiration to honest minds.

It may be that you are not too familiar with these thoughts or ideas, but I assure you that my friends worldwide are alarmed that central banks are exchanging gold for paper and liquidating the savings of their people in the process. This concern is probably responsible for the fact that the American version of my book, Gold Wars, is enjoying a continued high rating among professional books.

If this book finds your favour and you agree with my hypothesis as a worried citizen of our country, then you manifest this by using the enclosed deposit slip in favour of the International Red Cross. I am obviously at your disposition if you desire to discuss this topic further.

With best wishes for the coming festive season and a happy New Year for you and your family.

Sincerely yours,
Ferdinand Lips, Zurich

Enclosure: The Gold Conspiracy. See in particular Chapter VII: "The Betrayal of Switzerland", as well as Chapter VIII: "What happened to Germany's Gold?"

-END-

Nice timing Ferdi!

Ferdi also told me an Austrian aristocrat, a prince related to the Imperial Family of Habsburg, will be putting his letter on the desk and to the attention of the Austrian finance minister Dr. Strasser. Says Ferdi: "The Austrians have always been selling gold and last year they sold gold at the lowest price of the year. What a shame." - (Bill Murphy's comments).


My own? Comments - you've heard them before - and I can't even comment on the Austrian's, as I've tried to get responses from the CB (Nationalbank) Governor, a real - though, probably former, friend - doesn't and didn't answer any question relating to gold for years ... Uh, and BTW, the Austrian aristocracy has been rescinded right after 1918, Kamerad, oder comrade?

As the SNB will still retain about half of their gold holdings - a nation who is used to plebiscits for any reason at all - was not informed sufficiently about the meaning of the their gold sales. A red herring is becoming visible in the fraudulent manipulation of other country's not only gold reserves - and I'm not talking about the fraudulent IMF practises - yet!

Give me a break - I'm off to bed - dreamin' of a golden year ... cb2




specie-man
(01/05/2004; 17:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114657)
@ Goldilox - rare gas guzzler
Goldilox wrote:

"I had a friend in Dallas who bought a screamer back in '74 - I can't remember the make and model, but it was bright orange with a rear tail that was higher than the roofline and a big engine. He bought it new at just over half original sticker - no-one wanted gas guzzlers at the time, and it had been on the lot for a year. Even though gas prices came down again, he still had problems getting gas because it needed aviation grade and he had to drive to the airport to get it !"

That would be a 1969 Dodge Daytona or Plymoth Superbird (basically the same thing). They were actually a Roadrunner model with a fibreglass aero front end and a huge rear wing. Available engines included a 4-bbl 440, a 6-bbl "six-pack" 440, and a 4-bbl 426 "hemi". With some proper tuning, you could run one just fine on pump gas. But to get maximum performance, you'd need to advance the timing and run higher octane. They are worth large sums of money today.

PS: I've got a big old American 400 cubic-inch V8 that gets 20mpg on the highway.


Kilo
(01/05/2004; 17:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114658)
Sir Aristotle......

Thanks for the complements. I think for a few of us, it's a matter of not letting our heads be turned to mush by all of the attempts at convoluting what is otherwise a pretty simple subject. Too many expect others to tell them what is coming, what the future holds, to forsee what is unseeable or to predict the unpredictable. My favorite analogy is that of the ripples, waves, and tides, where only the tides really matter in the greater scheme. I was taught that concept of investing and market cycles many moons ago, and it has always proven itself with time. Too much focusing on the shooting stars while the real wisdom of the ages rests in the fixed points of light in the background. Like my old blue jeans and T-shirts..... eventually, it all comes back into fashion or favor. (big grin)

elevator guy
(01/05/2004; 17:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114659)
Goldilox 114646
Thanks for the confirmation.

Back in 1999, there was much talk in here about Y2K, the end of the USD-for-oil system, the resultant $30,000 gold, the end of the world as we know it, and so on.

I never thought that these things couldn't happen, but I also saw that the Fed had at its disposal the US military, and I really didn't think they would just sit idly by and watch their ship sink. The current moves for oil are no surprise, anymore than watching the outfielder run for the ball in flight. Its just so natural!
Aristotle
(01/05/2004; 18:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114660)
Sir Kilo,
To reiterate your good TIDE example, and then to speak of measuring your time in MOONS... well, let's just say that was a fine touch, and you've confirmed my faith that the more you say, the better for all who listen.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
steady
(01/05/2004; 18:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114661)
PING
CAPTAIN, CAPTAIN, CAPTAIN........ thaaa thaa that waassss oonn onn one big ECHO from Switzerland, sir! :+)
Silver Wraith
(01/05/2004; 19:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114662)
Ever hear of Bancor?
Hi. I am new to this site and hope that someone out there in PC land may be able to help me. I have a 14k yellow gold watch with the name "Bancor" on it. It is relatively old but it keeps accurate time. The watch is a rectangular wristwatch and fairly simple in design with a manual wind and a seconds dial in the 6 o'clock position with a sweeping second movement. It is a really nice little watch, but I know nothing about it. Someone...anyone...PLEASE!!
Thanks in advance! Silver Wraith
R Powell
(01/05/2004; 19:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114663)
Silver thoughts after a big day
I vividly remember Feb. 5th 1998 as the day that silver peaked at $7.38 (interday high) and marked the end of the price spike sparked by news of Buffett's buying. Shortly before this occured Buffett's buying became public knowledge and about this time it was disclosed that he had taken possession of 89.7 million ounces and would take another 30 million. This cleared the air somewhat with definitive numbers and an answer as to who was buying so that, the pending lawsuit against Philbro for market manipulation was dropped. I have my doubts as to whether Buffett took physical delivery of that last 30 million ounces or if he defered delivery (effectively leased back that which was not delivered) so as to let the shorts off the hook. Cynics among us may speculate that this agreement was instrumental to the dropping of the lawsuit. Philbro is the commodity trading department of Solomon Smith Barney, a company that is reportedly largely owned by Berkshire Hathaway.

After this news became public and Buffett explained that he would buy no more than the 129.7 million ounces disclosed, the price of silver fell. Interesting is the fact that he started accumulating this silver in the summer of 1997 but the market disclosure didn't come until the winter of 1997-1998. Yet many wonder who holds the large long positions shown by the non-commercial trading class in the COT reports. Who knows?

I thought of this today because the POS has once again moved through the high $5.00 to low $6.00 range in which I believe Buffett purchased the bulk of that silver. BTW, he explained that he bought to restore some "market price equilibrium" which I interpret to mean that he thought silver was undervalued. I still have not seen any news concerning supply or demand so I have to assume that the POS is trading on other concerns unlike copper which is responding to real downdraws in existing supply (massive Chinese buying) and unlike most other commodities that do constantly respond to anticipated changes in supply and demand. The market is obviously now very volatile and I sense that large moves in either direction are more likely than any long term narrow range trading.

Other thoughts?
Rich

Gandalf the White
(01/05/2004; 19:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114664)
A BEAUTIFUL P&F chart ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GTWO new additions to the stack "X"'s on the ROCKET's journey "TO THE MOON" ---- A GREEN number ONE (for January 2004) and A GREEN "X" topping !
<;-)
Max Rabbitz
(01/05/2004; 20:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114665)
Tricksy PPT
Anyone want some dollars?I've accumulated too many. So where is that PPT when you need them? We've not had a decent gold price "correction" in a long long time and I am getting rather upset. I'm beginning to suspect they've changed the rules again. They are soooo tricksy. I want more shiny.
Gandalf the White
(01/05/2004; 20:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114666)
Sir Silver Wraith ----
Silver Wraith (1/5/04; 19:34:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114662)
Ever hear of Bancor?
Hi. I am new to this site ----
===
Hello Sir Silver Wraith !
Your post is ALMOST totally off subject --- BUT, since it is a GOLD WATCH ---
===
Bancor WAS a Swiss Brand of 14 Kt. GOLD watches made in the era of 1940 to about 1969. They came in both men's and women's styles. Most were of the square or rectangular design and had between 7 and 17 jewels. Let me say that these watches are considered "inexpensive".
<;-)




R Powell
(01/05/2004; 20:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114667)
Another memory
During that run up in the POS caused by Mr. Buffett I vaguely remember a $.28 up day that was immediately followed by a $.32 up day. Now, wouldn't that be nice although it might be more healthy for the POS to just rise very slowly and steadily. Gold also, slow but steady invites less risk of those huge "contraction" days. Unfortunately, my concern now must be to hedge or otherwise insure paper gains. This certainly runs contrary to the urge to increase long side risk.
Physical buying is for the long term so the danger is, I guess, that metals will cost more the longer one waits during any bull market run. Buy the dips? Of course, but how much higher do prices go before that dip? And, will the dip's bottom (if you can catch it) be lower than the current high? This almost makes one think that supernatural help is needed?
What does the wizard's crystal now show for gold and sister silver? It has been quite accurate of late.
Rich
Gandalf the White
(01/05/2004; 20:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114668)
WOWERS !!! Look at this chart and see TODAY's DOWN VOLUME !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[da][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GThe ESF was VERY BUSY today in the LONG Bond market --- BUT, it was of no use !
Which do you think "throws away" the most US$ ?
The ESF or the Japanese Gov'n ?
Gold will continue to head "TO THE MOON" !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/05/2004; 20:31:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114669)
Sir Rich ! (Thanks !)
R Powell (1/5/04; 20:16:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114667)
Another memory
===
I see nothing in my Crystal Ball that in any way causes the present TREND to be changing anytime soon !
Things are GOLDEN with a Silver lining !
The only thing that could change Silver is if everyone starts selling Grandma's sterling flatware !
<;-)
Goldbug 1
(01/05/2004; 20:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114670)
Last day in Lhasa
Gold at $424 hasn't slowed the buying here with the Spring Festival coming up.
Can't wait to get home to get Fur Face to give his latest gold price prediction!
Tashi Delek!
mikal
(01/05/2004; 20:43:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114671)
@Belgium
Just to let you know that I too appreciate your erudite, invaluable posts.
In response to your question earlier, about how the equities in our country continue upwards despite exorbitant risk, debts, PE ratios and so on:
There was a post at the neighboring forum in the third week of December 2003 that I have heard little about since, that explained that equities- Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, etc.- would rise through the 2nd week of Janaury until about the 15th.
Because of the favorable tax treatment or tax deductions or perhaps exemptions. I regret that I have no particulars, but I am convinced that this has been a major motivator, alongside excess liquidity, speculation and PPT intervention.
I DO expect that January will not finish like December or November AT ALL, and as such, I am highly suspicious of the timing of the latest "authentic Bin Laden threats" and the scale of the threats on this latest audiotape.
Highest regards, Michael
Kilo
(01/05/2004; 20:46:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114672)
Sir Aristotle.......

Alot can be read between the lines as far as one's use of wording I suppose. I'm assuming you've been at this PMs game for quite some time yourself ? Going on 40+ years for me, though I did start at a younger age than most, an interest that was planted and nurtured along by a favorite uncle during my childhood.

In later years, I met up with "George". Old George was as cantankerous as they came when he wanted to be, and most generous the next.... if he happened to take a liking to you. I guess I was one of the lucky ones.

George started on "The Boulevard" back in the 1930s, opening one of the cities first jewelry stores on a shoestring budget and all of $200 for his first stock of merchandise, trip to Chicago and all. It's been rumored that he managed to parlay that initial $200 into multi-millions with his store and other investment interests, and I have no doubt that was true. My few years of employment with him seemed to turn things in the right direction as far as my earlier understanding and "getting it" as you suggest. Suggestions that I read and study "The Richest Man In Babylon" and do my best to obtain a full understanding of how money works was more valuable than any compensation I ever earned from him in a monetary form.

More on the personal side, Old George talked on many occasions of his own investments and "how things worked". He was one of those "few" who had a grasp on things that escapes the vast majority.

Old George had had a particularly good year by Christmas eve of not so long ago, and invited me to sit and talk with him about life in general. As was usual with George, the subject eventually turned to money, and his favorite personal "items of interest", a large 36 carat cushion-cut white diamond that he carried around in his pocket to fondle when he felt "the need to remember where it all started" for him, and his favorite materials of the trade..... Gold and Silver.

"Investments and markets are a fickle thing" he told me. "Sometimes they are your best friend, and other times your worst enemy."

Not really sure that I understood what he was trying to tell me, he continued.....

"You gotta be smart" he said in his best Bronx accent, though I was never quite sure if he was originally from New York or Chicago.

"You gotta go with the flow, know when the tides are coming in and when they are going out" he said.

"We're talking about gold and silver?" I asked him.

"Damn right! Gold and silver and diamonds and everything else in this world that people buy and sell" he almost shouted back at me.

"You see, markets move like the ocean shore. We are constantly seeing ripples, waves, and tides. The ripples are the daily little insignificant ups and downs that everyone is always so giddy about. The waves are more like the weekly, monthly, or yearly moves in the markets, when prices are still going higher or lower, only over a longer time period."

I just sat there and looked at him for awhile, as he smoked one of those old sausage-sized stoggies he was so fond of. After getting a good head of smoke going, he continued.....

"Those ripples and waves don't make a tinkers damn! They are just something to keep the masses occupied in the process of the 'real' moves in the markets."

"It's the TIDES..... always the TIDES" he said between puffs of that big old cigar.

Even then, I knew there was something in what he was saying, as I had been interested in the metals for many years prior. So at that point, I pushed him for more, and just knowing I was interested gave him more pleasure than anything else he could have given or received at that time of year.

"The tides, you see, are the major moves in the markets. They take the longest time, but also provide the greatest rewards. They are also the easiest to predict, because THEY ALWAYS COME BACK. It's like this boob of a weather man that we have on this local TV station who gets 9 out of 10 forecasts dead wrong. If he had any brains, he'd just come in and make one forcast every 3 months and take the rest of the year off. And I could GUARANTEE him a 100 percent accuracy rate! Cold in the winter, warming up in the spring, hot in the summer, and cooling off in the fall. What else do we really need to know? Are we gonna stop the snow tomorrow or the rains of may? How significant are the day to day weather happenings in our lives, anyway?"

Alot of those old talks have stuck with me over the years, and make more sense to me every day. We spend so much time worrying about the "little things" that by the time the "big things" actually happen, we are either too tired, bored, or disinterested to even notice.

"The tides" Old George continued.... "They are a strange thing indeed. And not many people these days can tell you that there are two tides per day, much less WHY there are two. But those tides are not a world-wide occurance. There are rises in some parts of the world and simultaneous falls in other parts, and it is the same with the markets. The trick is figuring out which ones fall while others are rising, and visa-versa. And you always buy when the tide is at it's lowest, sell when it's at it's highest (buy low, sell high). You just gotta learn the tides, cause 'It's the TIDES, always the TIDES' you see. Don't worry about the ripples and waves...."
elevator guy
(01/05/2004; 21:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114673)
Kilo!
Nice writing style! Almost sounds like a Ken Roberts book!
Ever been published?
Waverider
(01/05/2004; 22:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114674)
Kilo
Thanks for sharing the words of wisdom from Old George. They remind me of William Shakespeare's...

"There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose forever our ventures."
Black Blade
(01/05/2004; 22:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114675)
specie-man
Ah yes, the Chrysler/Dodge Superbird did have the big stabilizer tail wing. It was a 1969 Dodge Charger (my second car) when I was younger and easy work for us "backyard mechanics". Many times some small or larger "muscle car" would yank my chain and we did a little side by side on a late night freeway (OK, my reckless youth). It would be slow on the take off but I would always run them down and when side-by-side, that little toggle switch with a last second boost of nitro usually would scare them off. One friend of mine still has his 429 boss (essentially a hemi mustang) that sits in his garage and he turns over the engine occasionally and has fewer than 9,000 original miles (only 503 ever made).

I guess my comparison is that precious metals acted the same way. A slow start and a lot of disbelief and when the metals caught up to other investments as they sputtered and then left them in the dust there were still doubters. The race is far from over and sooner or later we will see the "toggle switch" flipped on and a "nitro boost" scaring the hell outta a lot of disbelievers. There are still a lot of "gold bears" out there and can't "believe their lying eyes". Interesting that physical demand is still strong even as the prices rise but then there is a lot of room to roam as this is a multi-year secular bull market in hard assets and I would not be surprised to see gold and silver far exceed previous highs. I am just waiting for the the race to heat up and the "nitro boost". The question is only when not if that will happen. The US dollar has passed "the point of no return" as the national debt surges beyond $44 trillion (official and "off the books" - thanks to former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill for the revelation and a good way of getting back for being fired), there's also the soaring Federal debt (as well as soaring state, local, corporate, and personal debt), and the rocketing accumulation of year-on-year current account imbalances.

My bets are solidly on precious metals and energy. A healthy load of physical precious metals for "portfolio insurance" (and what "insurance" is has been too). I have a bit of PM and high yeilding NatGas, pipeline, etc. shares too. The bulk of the rest is in energy trusts (mostly Canadian that are high yeilding and tax is capped at 15%) and some limited partnership units. Then a smattering of "various" speculative shares. Notice that I always start off with a solid base of physical gold, silver and platinum (bullion and numismatic) to support my "wealth pyramid". Ya just gotta start with the "real deal" before going into riskier positions that get riskier the further up the "wealth pyramid" you go. Call it a firm foundation, a "golden lifeboat" or a gold anchor if you wish, but I always keep the base loaded and at least a third of my holdings. Even then I don't sell as this is purely "insurance", the rest is for "fun and games" (trading and current income) and hopefully will hold up and make gains as the "choppy seas" get wild with each passing typhoon/hurricane.

Get your house in order first and as always: get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash some emergency cash for several months expenses (or in this environment precious metals will be as good or better and always liquid), accumulate gold and silver for "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. I am not an "alarmist" but a realist. Anything can happen such as long term unemployment, family illness or medical problems, natural disasters, etc. - the list goes on and on. I know friends who lost their jobs (cost-cutting or as the media says "down sizing") and they got by fairly well until they steadied themselves with other work and another who went through cancer treatments and was off work for several months (fortunately he survived and today is cancer free). But preparation and "insurance" as described above saved them and their family home, etc. We insure our lives, health, homes, autos, etc., but really - how many "insure" people themselves for financial difficulty. I would bet that very few do.

- Black Blade

Waverider
(01/05/2004; 22:59:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114676)
Gandalf
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?d=LOW&go.y=10&r=&p=D&b=line&s=TYXY&s=FVXY&s=DX1%21&s=GC1%21&go.x=12&v=Here are more charts showing 30 & 5 year Treasury yields, USDX, and Spot all on one page, compliments of Topaz.
Black Blade
(01/05/2004; 23:03:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114677)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava and King (Special Edition)
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

A new bull market has begun in commodities, especially gold and silver. This new bull market is a secular bull market and it coexists with a cyclical bull market in equities. It is one reason that it has gotten little attention and has gone unnoticed by the vast majority of investors. Most investors are playing the cyclical bull markets in equities believing that the good times of the 1990s have returned. Investing in commodities or commodity-like stocks is simply not on the radar screen of most investors. Everyone knows the price of the Dow or the NASDAQ, but few are even aware of what has happened to gold, silver, copper, nickel or lead. The old trend is still the most relevant trend for investors. Precious metals and precious metal equities remain ignored and under-owned.

Dow 1000 Gold $400 Syndrome

I mention the fact that precious metal equities remain under-owned because very few mutual funds or professional managers have significant ownership in the sector. Even those that do own it have traded in and out of the sector preferring to trade rather than invest. Many gold investors have done likewise trading in and out of the sector only to find themselves short when the metals take off. Today's new bull market in silver and gold reminds me of the last bull market in gold that began in 1971. Back then like today gold and silver prices were rallying along with equities. The Dow fell sharply in 1969 and throughout the first half of 1970. After dropping 35% during the bear market of 69-70 the Dow went on to rally strongly until its peak in January of 1973.


Black Blade: A good read. The financial media was all a buzz about precious metals and petroleum today even as equities surged on moderate volume (on the DOW). It was an all across the board equities rally that suggests to me simple repositioning of portfolios at the start of the New Year. Meanwhile, insiders are bailing out and with valuations out of whack with reality who can blame them? The Wall Streeters gave the usual baloney and tried to explain the rise in commodities as a prelude to a better economy in coming weeks/months, etc. Actually Fed Governor Bernanke gave many investors in hard assets reason to keep buying while Lemmings followed the equities buyers (mostly funds prevented from owning real assets). "Bubble Two" is underway for now and many will fall victim just as before. The US dollar is falling and even the massive infusion by the BOJ could not stem the fall. Many traders tonight are saying that the BOJ is at it again as they are "reloaded" with an infinite amount of Yen to sell.

Well worth reading tonight's report and hopefully will be added to our "Golden Opinion" if granted by Jim Puplava. Be sure to read this one as "the game is afoot" and just getting started.


Operative
(01/05/2004; 23:07:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114678)
Quiet On The Eastern Front Tonight
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Looking at the dollar chart since Japan took over the action, or in this case, inaction, it is hard to tell if the forex markets are in a state of "shell shock" or regrouping for a counter attack. Kind of strange, spooky, feeling tonight.

@ Black Blade. Sometimes I wonder how you got to be so old.
Dragg'in Cars!! Nitro to boot! Have this image of one poor, tired, crippled, bandaged, and mostly unfeathered guardian angel assigned to your case. Well, they say the good die young eh? (glad to see your taking better care of yourself this days. well, except for offering your body as a sacrifice to your MA instructor.)

@Waverider: ...There is a tide in the affairs... Ahhh, that post settles the soul a bit. I return the favor with this mental image for you. Picture a large sailing ship quietly at rest in a protected bay. Water is mirror like calm, the skies are blue, peace abounds even if a few seagulls are overhead. The caption for this image reads: "Ships are safe in the harbour, but that is not why they are built."

Off to put a pot of coffee on for any others who may be up tonight.
specie-man
(01/05/2004; 23:09:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114679)
@ Black Blade - cars
The '68-'70 Chargers were cool with that "Coke-bottle" body.

The Boss 429 Mustangs are definitely a hot (and expensive) item. An original one with low miles like that would be a real treasure. The more original and documented a muscle car is, the better (there are a lot of put-together "clones" out there).

My specialty is El Caminos. I've got a '68 SS-396, a '72 SS-454, and a '71 GMC Sprint SP-454 (GMC version of El Camino SS-454 - only 25 made !).

Also have a couple Buicks - a '68 GS-Colorado and a '69 SportWagon 400.

I like your analogy. The precious metals markets are definitely starting to get some traction !

PS: You ever watch "My Classic Car" with Dennis Gauge (the handlebar moustache car guy on TV) ?

specie-man
(01/05/2004; 23:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114680)
Japan's Intervention
Do not be afraid of large-scale inverventions in support of the Dollar by the Bank of Japan.

My thumbnail "back-of-the-envelope" theory tells me that no matter how much the BOJ drives down the yen, the dollar will go down more than the Yen ! So when Japan indicates that it will borrow even more money for Yen intervention, that tells me there is even more downward pressure soon to be exerted on the Dollar.

The US and Japan have a secret COOPERATIVE currency devaluation scheme going. The Yen and the Dollar will decline together against most other currencies, but the dollar will fall the most ! The agreement is that the BOJ will regulate the fall to prevent both currencies from crashing.

So,

BOJ Yen intervention = declining dollar (and Yen) !

That's my theory and I'm stickin' to it.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 23:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114681)
Australian PM demands agricultural concessions in Trade negotiations
cting Prime Minister John Anderson told US trade negotiators Australia needs major concessions on agriculture before a free trade agreement between the two nations can proceed.

Anderson was talking tough ahead of the meeting with eight US Republican lawmakers, telling the Australian newspaper that if agriculture is not part of the deal "then it's a free trade deal not worth doing".

After the talks he told reporters he was confident about making progress but conceded there were "tricky" areas to negotiate.

"I've made the point today that agricultural access is terribly important for Australia -- more access for beef, for dairy and certainly for sugar," he said.

Anderson also said the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme -- which controls the retail price of prescription medicines -- is not on the bargaining table, despite pressure from US drugs giants.

The United States has sought changes in restrictions on Australian television, radio and film, and the end of some state trading enterprises.

Anderson said negotiators hoped to have an agreement framework in place by the end of January following final talks in Washington between Trade Minister Mark Vaile and US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick.

Negotiations for the deal have already gone beyond the end of 2003 deadline originally set by US President George W. Bush and Australian Prime Minister John Howard.

Officials have indicated contentious areas may be set aside and worked on in later years in order to get in place the deal that Canberra estimates could be worthy up to four billion Australian dollars (3.0 billion US dollars to the local economy.

"A free trade agreement with the US, promptly negotiated, will integrate Australia's economy with the world's biggest economy ... it will mean more jobs, better pay and more rewarding jobs for Australians," Anderson said. "It is therefore something that will be very actively pursued.

The agreement is being presented to Australia as a pact that would ensure its farmers greater access to the US market but it it faces strong opposition from lobby groups in both Canberra and Washington.

In Australia, trade unions, churches, welfare, health groups and film producers as well as many economists remain convinced it will damage Australia's interests.

Australian film and telelvision personalities, including Oscar-winner actor Geoffrey Rush, have condemned the free trade deal, saying Australian culture will be swamped by cheap US products. US agricultural groups in turn have criticised Australian demands for greater market access

Negotiators are keen to wrap up negotiations as soon as possible to prevent the agreement becoming caught in a legislative logjam caused by elections in both Australia and the US later this year that could see it fall off the political agenda.

Goldilox:

I posted the whole article since it was retrieved from the news link of a proprietary site. My favorite part is the line that says "The United States has sought changes in restrictions on Australian television, radio and film, and the end of some state trading enterprises." . . . especially since Aussie Rupert Murdoch owns about 35% of US media.
Goldilox
(01/05/2004; 23:58:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114682)
Banks have the dumbest computer programs
I got an overdraft notice today. It seems I had transferred $550. (careful to insert decimal point) to my checking incorrectly. The daft program interpreted it as $5.50, since I omitted the trailing zeros. Don't decimal points mean anything, or are they so backward that CGI scripts freak out their formats?

They still don't use COBOL or Fortran-IV, do they?

That's the last time I saw a language that used fixed character formats instead of decimal entries.
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 00:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114683)
Operative and specie-man

Operative - there;s a saying: "Live hard, live fast, die young, and make a pretty corpse". I hope I got most of that "hard livin" outta my system my now. ;-)

Specie-man - I may have seen the show once if it was on "Spike" network a few weeks ago. I tend to watch Orange County Choppers for a few good laughs cause I know some "halfway disfunctional" families like that. Though under all the hostility they are really quite close and that's just the way they are. Now I just have a Dodge Ram 4X4 having sold my 2000 Viper last year (at a profit no less - high demand). I see that some foreigners (especially in Japan of all places) are paying a high prices for older US made muscle cars and they are fewer as time goes on. Mine was lacquer black, chromed, and interior black leather "tuck and roll" - one of the worst decisions I made was to sell it. Of course "The Dukes of Hazard" TV show a few years ago had to have destroyed quite a few chargers too. ;-)

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Operative
(01/06/2004; 00:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114684)
China will launch 10 satellites this year
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040106/photos_sc_afp/040106063104_v1szyhvy_photo0China will launch 10 satellites this year, more than ever before, as its space program enters what state media describe as a 'pivotal period'.

Comment: Would it be asking too much to at least have a giant Wal-Mart Logo attached, or "Sponsored by Wal-Mart", or some kind of similar credit where credit is due? Afterall, without Wal-Mart sales, they would still be playing with firecrackers.
Denarius
(01/06/2004; 00:41:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114685)
Interesting Times
Salute,

Four-twenty here, Six-twenty there, not to mention that Eight-twenty stuff. It's all so confusing. What ever happened to the simpler times when Gold was Three-something and Silver was -- silver?

I wouldn't be complaining except for the smoke from all that paper -- 'burning':

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=l&w=1&a=0&v=dmax

And then there's the annoying soot from all that oil which is -- 'on fire':

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history.gif?s=NYMEX_CLG4&t=l&w=1&a=0&v=dmax

No, I'm afraid the days of our youth and innocense are over. Time to step up to the counter and place your order, unless you have already done so. Then, my friends, we can withdraw to safety and bear witness to the latest folly in the never-ending saga of mankind's arrogance and ignorance. The few who will see the glitter through the smoke and fury will find their way to the counter with our help. The others? Well, there will always be the others.

So, what's the next event? Has the Plunge Team returned from holliday yet? They have been known to do some of their nastiest work on Tuesdays. Or are they still busy trying to open their off-shore bank accounts without alerting the Enforcement Arm of the Money Laundering Division of the Homeland Security ..... Oh forget it.

Today is today and it will be just as much fun watching Silver bounce off the six-dollar level as it was the five-dollar line. I wonder what all our friends living in strong-currency lands are watching. Probably news leaks on how much of the people's gold their Central Banks are swapping for worthless 'reserves'. That doesn't sound near as much fun to me.

In any case, best wishes to each of you in this, the Chinese 'Year of the Monkey' or, as some would have it, the 'Year of the Bush', a distinction lost on me.

Salvete, Denarius; Coin of Empire, Tool of Commerce,
Metal of Freedom, Keeper of Wealth, Humble Servant.

P.S. Any volunteers to help me shoehorn one of them there hemi-head V-8s into my '69 Peugeot 504?
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 00:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114686)
Midas Crusade
The sounds of drums and pipes filled the morning air at Hammerton and the Goldbugs had finnished their task. Sir Black Blade looked across the Epis. In just a few days the Goldbugs had built two large barges to ferry them across the Epis. They would now be able to bring man,horse and wagon together to the other side with ease for the barges would be pulled by horses with lines attached to yokes. The long lines of rope and horses made the dangerous crossing the day before and a cheer sounded as they reached the opposite shore. When the lines were attached to the barges, Sir Black Blade ordered that they be loaded and the crossing begin with earnest.
Sir Black Blade had some concern in the decision to split their forces, but the East Gate to Hammerton had to be secured. He would go to the far shore and Sir M.K. would stay behind to secure the West Gate. Sir Black Blade wondered how far behind were the Knights of Old and the army from the Valley of Clouds.
Then his worst fear came upon him as a rider sent from Omar rode up.
Hail, Sir Black Blade the rider said. I bring you a message from Omar Khayyam, and handed Sir Black Blade a scroll. He opened it and read the writing on the paper.
Bonfir! he yelled and a short time later Bonfir was at his side. We must get to the other side quickly for riders have been seen approaching Hammerton and that does not bode well for us. If they catch us in this crossing they can do much damage. Bonfir, you with the help of Jachin and Boaz, must hasten this crossing, said Sir Black Blade.
It will be done, said Bonfir and he rode off to find Jachin and Boaz.
Lady Waverider , standing close to Sir Black Blade come over to him.
Let us cross with the wagons, she said. Let us provide protection till the crossing is complete.
Your are needed here, for they believe the crossing of the Epis can not be made and our main force is still in front of them. The branches thrown in the river was a ruse to make them think we will assualt the West gate in force. They now move to enter the East Gate and if all goes well, we will deny them.
It was at mid day that things went bad for the Goldbugs.
Although the crossing of their forces was almost complete there came an alarm that there was movement on the West Gate.
Sir Black Blade rode to the bluff to observe and he could see archers and horsemen. They crossed the bridge and assembled in front of the earthworks. The Scots played on.
Sir M.K.rode up to join Sir Black Blade on the bluff.
Think they had enough of the Scots music, Sir Black Blade? He said with a smile.
Maybe, and he chuckled, but he knew this could become serious.
The horsemen moved to the front and the archers fell in behind. These riders then slowly move forward followed by the archers.
The Lady Warriors come forth from the treeline to face them.
You could hear the horses breath across the field.
Closer they came. The Scots put down their instruments and picked up their weapons.
Aye! Do you think they're looking for a fight? One Scot could be heard asking another. Naw! They're just out for an afternoon walk. Laughter broke out in their mists.
Then it started. The horsemen broke to full Gallop and the archers ran behind them to cover ground.
The Lady Warriors too raced to cover the distance between them. The foot soldiers of the Goldbugs ran behind them. The thunder of hoves and the waving of swords.
One voice could be heard above all, "FREE GOLD".
The next second was the sound of clashing horses and blade.
The Scots ran forward like antelope and entered the scuffle. Between the horses they made their way breaking through, to face the archers, who were now sending arrows of flame to set the woods afire. Startled, some drew down on them. Yet others turned and ran as the Scottish Broad Sword found its mark.
From the north,riders of Omar rode down on the battlefield. Omar had kept close watch on the West Gate.
Those that turned to run, met the Swords of Omar. The arrows rained down on them from the earthworks.
None would returned to the gate.
But they succeded in their objective. The forest was now a blazed. The dry underbrush flamed up and soon the treetops was engulfed. The riders of Omar turned to help the Lady Warriors and all was quiet on the battlefield.
They watched as the fire race from tree top to tree top.
They began to pick up the wounded and ride back.
They could see Sir M.K. and Sir Black Blade still on the bluff. Bonfir,Jachin and Boaz had safely move all to the opposite shore of the Epis.
They too would make the crossing, but Omar Khayyam would moved his horse men to a position directly opposite the West Gate. Defying all, and would not move despite the callings of Sir M.K.
Smoke fill the air. Gandalf asked Shadowfax to ride like the wind.

Slingshot--------------------<>




Operative
(01/06/2004; 01:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114687)
Interesting Gold Chart
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.aspThought this part of the trail looked a little familiar.
Great Albino Bat
(01/06/2004; 01:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114688)
PIzz - your comment on the free fall of the dollar....

Pizz (1/5/04; 11:06:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114635)
Most orderly free-fall in History
******************

Went to bed last night pondering on this subject; here are my thoughts:

Both Austrian theory (as I understand it) and personal experience lead me to believe that we are witnessing, in this abrupt fall of the dollar, an event that is not in the same class as the "floating" we have become accustomed to in recent years.

This dollar devaluation is not going to work as a corrective mechanism that, when its effect takes hold, will taper off into stability. The financial system in the US has gone beyond its parameters of stability; in simpler terms, the dollar is falling off the table where it had its ups and downs.

What I am trying to express is the idea that the dollar is going to continue to fall much further than anyone supposes. (Excellent for gold, of course!) Indeed, there will be no levelling of the Balance of Trade through devaluation, because this devaluation is not linked to Trade. It originates in excessive credit creation in the US.

As long as that credit creation continues out of control, as so many writers have noted with great alarm - David Tice of Prudent Bear and Doug Nolan at the same institution come to mind - the devaluation will continue.

Normally, a devaluation will act to cut imports; and though devaluation of the US dollar may cut down somewhat on imports, this will work only for a short time and for amounts insufficient to reinstate a balance between imports and exports. Since this devaluation is caused by excessive credit creation, higher prices for imports will not stem the flow of imports. The US consumers will simply pay higher prices BECAUSE THE MONEY CONTINUES TO BE MADE AVAILABLE.

The only thing that will stop this process of devaluation, is a sharp, or rather brutal, hike in interest rates which will cut off credit creation. That is something that will have to happen, but it is being put off as long as possible. The elections in the US are an important impediment to taking this decision.

This reminds me that Paul A. Volcker did just that - apply a brutal shock to credit creation back in '79. That put the house in order, back then, at a fearful cost. However, that measure produced the confidence and credibility in the dollar that has lasted to our days, but has now been exhausted. One might say that the dollar has coasted on the effects of Volcker's tightening, during the past twenty some years. That salutary effect has now worn off. Dollar credibility is falling by the day, and no action is being taken to maintain or repair it.

Of course, thngs have now gone to such extremes that even a hint of tightening is scary; the US economy, in my humble opinion, will just implode when tightening happens. The conditions we will see then, will be utterly frightful. Forget about pabulum such as "soft landing"!

The dollar devaluation is not going to act as a corrective mechanism, but rather on the contrary, it is going to increase problems for the US. As the dollar falls, it will be harder to fund the US fiscal deficit with foreign money, which will demand higher interest to make up for the downward trend in the dollar. That will increase the fiscal deficit. This is just one field where negative effects will be felt. On the whole, the fall of the dollar is not a corrective mechanism, as I said, but it rather a symptom of unravelling, of falling off the table.

The US has gutted its industrial base. So even if the dollar cheapens, what will there be to export?

The US economy is a house of cards and the devaluation may turn out to have catastrophic effects.

ONLY a massive slowdown in further credit creation will halt further devaluation. And that would mean, the end of an era for the U.S. of A. There is just no easy way out of this problem.

If the whole rest of the world were to engage in a parallel program of credit creation and debasement of their currencies, maybe the debasement of the dollar would not be so noticeable, as all currencies would debase together. I just don't think that option is possible; if is does turn out that way - everyone doing a Japan thing - then GOLD will shine all the more.

I think that in retrospect, in a couple of years we may see this present sharp fall in the dollar as the prelude to the last act: loss of world reserve currency status.

Sorry to be so negative about the US problems. I hope I am mistaken. Perhaps there is still one more rabbit in the hat.

The GAB
Operative
(01/06/2004; 02:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114689)
@ GAB
"Sorry to be so negative about the US problems."

Well, at least you did not sugar coat it. :)

Great job of bringing a coherant conclusion to loose thoughts we all are wondering about. Personally, I would only make one change in your qoute above, replace negative, with realistic.
Waverider
(01/06/2004; 02:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114690)
Euro....
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2...breaks 127.00 while Spot is just shy of $426.00!
bugs
(01/06/2004; 02:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114691)
waves...
the long waves are the best, but I think the little eddies here and there may be good for a bit of surfing, eh? and why not.. especially now. Time to sell! :)
bugs
(01/06/2004; 02:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114692)
my apologies
the eddys not the eddies... eeks...

in any case, it's a good time to be in gold. "When life looks like Easy St., there is danger at your door.", or something. Not to be a worry wart or anything.
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 02:59:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114693)
bugs
How are you doing partner? First time post?
Ah, to sell and take profits. Tempting isn't it?
First of all I am not a financial advisor. But a Die Hard Goldbug. Asking the indulgence of the Sages of the Forum, I again state I rode the POG to $254 and never looked back.
Should I take profits now knowing what I have learned at this forum by those more learned than I? I await the shaking out of weakhands and the thrust upward by supply and demand and other fundamentals according to austrian school of economics.
Slingshot---------------<>
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 03:09:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114694)
Gold Tagged $428

Spot just jumped to a new high moments ago and looks strong as the US dollar falls even with massive Japanese currency intervention. Should at least be an "interesting" day.

- Black Blade
Waverider
(01/06/2004; 03:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114695)
Spot 'n Spike.......
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Yes BB...in fact, maybe Sir Gandalf would be so KIND as to do us a favor and PLEASE feed Spot 'n Spike their roo meat in the morning and NOT at bedtime - they are FAR too rambuctious for this hour and you know how they DEMAND attention! ;o) Okay - Golden Dreams All!
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 03:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114696)
Looks Strong - $430 Soon
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=∈fos=3∈dtype1=0∈dtype2=0&volumen=2
An impressive chart (see link). Going straight up!

- Black Blade
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 03:20:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114697)
GAB
Calling a Spade, A Spade!
Bravo!
Slingshot----------<>
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 03:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114698)
Why ? --- You ask, is SPOT active tonight ? Look at this chart and see.
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10THERE GOES the US$ !! DOWN, of course !
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 04:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114699)
There goes SPOT over the $429. level !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 04:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114700)
OOPS -- There SPOT goes over the $430. Level !!
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/default.aspLONDON is ACTIVE on Tuesday !
<;-)
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 04:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114701)
There It Is!!!

Gold just surpassed the $430.50 level. The Japanese and even Hong Kong intervened in the currency markets buying US dollars but they just don't really count anymore. No one takes them seriously after all their currencies are a joke. Meanwhile the Euro is flying higher along with Gold!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 04:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114702)
Another Joke -

To top it off today would be for the Prez or Sec. Snow to repeat that they "support a strong dollar policy". That would be good for a laugh or two.

Well, OK since it's late and we are having some fun:

A hunter brings in two rabbits to a taxidermist. The taxidermist asks: "do you want them mounted?"

The hunter replies: "No thanks, holding hands would be fine."

- Black Blade
Mr Gresham
(01/06/2004; 04:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114703)
Calling Sir LimitUp!
Meanwhile, Sir Pizz has nailed it: (I'm only halfway through, but can't restrain myself)

"What I am trying to express is the idea that the dollar is going to continue to fall much further than anyone supposes. (Excellent for gold, of course!) Indeed, there will be no levelling of the Balance of Trade through devaluation, because this devaluation is not linked to Trade. It originates in excessive credit creation in the US."

If Sir LimitUp is not in the building, then the Elephant is certainly in the room. The bogus economists will throw us the idea of "trade adjustments" for awhile, for that is the first thing that occurs to them when they think of foreign currencies, and for now, the Euro impresses. (This is a stable world fiat system? Oh yeah, a One World Currency, any day now! WHO gets to print it?)

The press is full of "dollar down, gold up" -- and people's usual thinking is "This is gradual, I have time to think over my response to it".

But with all we've learned here, from years back with our Guides, the "re-pricing" will be sudden, dramatic, surprising to all. ("All paper..."?) Only the date to be ascertained.

If not now, then on a date very much like these past few.

Meanwhile, $428? I think I remember picking up my first few (and, for that time, only) doubloons at that level 20 years ago. Back when you had to cross a state line to avoid sales tax!

While it's on my mind, I'll rehash a thought I've heard only from myself ;) These past years of tribulation, of waiting, of being thought and occasionally called a fool -- these are the stickpins of memory you will carry to help you conserve and use wisely to your and family's benefit what the IRS would like to label "unearned income."

Few investment "victories" have been gained with as much "blood, tears, toil, and sweat" as this one. You stood up to the takers who marshalled all your neighboring citizens' tax and savings money against your stand for honest money. You paid your dues -- now do not give up any of it lightly...

BB: Few Negra Modelos have tasted as sweet as this evening's.

Now back to Sir Pizz's thoughts, and perhaps a short jog on the Trail...
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 04:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114704)
Glad I stayed up all night.
Strange Days --- Doors
When I'm Sixty Four ----Beatles ( Special Friend)
Fire ----- Crazy Would of Author Brown
Judy Blues Eyes ----- Crosby Stills Nash
Magic Carpet Ride -----Steppenwolf
Respect-------Arethra Franklin
Red Rubber Ball ----Circle
Rock Me Armadeous-------------?
A Night at the Opera-------------Queen

Sing my Friends,
Slingshot-----------------<>
Operative
(01/06/2004; 04:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114705)
History channel showing a documentary on gold.
And while it is showing, I now see gold is rising. Just too cool me thinks. 430 gold. What? Has the world come to an end? Nah...just the dollar.

Off to start another pot of coffee, been waiting too many months to miss the fun now. Some toothpicks for the eye lids and I am set.
Socrates964
(01/06/2004; 04:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114706)
GAB
I agree with your analysis of the USD.

Having seen a series of currencies fall off a cliff, there is a characteristic pattern:

1. An indefensible rate is defended until the financial elite has shifted out its cash.

2. The authorities adopt a more flexible approach - which basically entails firing the chairman of the central bank and letting the market determine the exchange rate.

3. Massive devaluation occurs within a month or two. Assuming the exchange rate was 1 to the dollar, it goes to somewhere between 3-6 within a few months.

4. At this point, one of two things happen. Markets perceive that the government has the resolve to implement a terrible austerity strategy that controls inflation but that ruins labor (capital has already been ruined or has fled the country). The exchange rate then rallies against the USD and settles around 2.50 to 3. Confidence returns within 18 months.

OR

Markets perceive that there is no such will, and rampant inflation pushes the real exchange rate back to where it was before the devaluation, albeit with a much higher nominal exchange rate. If the country has anything worth exporting, the external sector eventually balances the economy.

You can more or less split devaluing currencies into what I call 3ers (i.e. they go from 1 to 3) or 6ers (from 1 to 6).

The Won, the Brazilian Real and the Argie peso were 3ers, the Rouble and the Rupiah were 6ers.

Now, in these countries, no-one trusts their own currency, but has absolute faith in dollars.

I've always wondered to what degree this highly consistent pattern applies to the dollar.

Evidently, there is no obvious refuge currency, so I think that we have to price dollars in terms of gold. Since gold is behaving as a strong currency proxy, it is as good a yardstick as any, and may even shine more brightly than the Euro (hopefully).

What was the artificial $ parity price for gold. let's assume it was the low of $255 (it may have been higher, say $300, which gives us an even higher base).

I will bet that the $ will turn out to be either a 3er or a 6er, which points to gold going to somewhere between $765 and $1530.

Which is it? I don't know - it depends on a number of variables that GAB has pointed out.

He is right to highlight the likelihood that the deindustrialization of the US precludes economic recovery through the external sector. The problem here is that this has always been the only recipe for recovery for those countries whose currencies have gone off a cliff. None managed to generate an internally-driven recovery.

I nevertheless feel that an even more important factor is the absence of an IMF-like organization to impose austerity on the US. The only tool is the market, and note that the market does not change its view until government shows intent to change its policy.

For any other economy, the verdict would be unanimous: the government doesn't want to clean up its excesses, so it's not a 3er but a 6er. US media spin would have us believe that it is neither, something I doubt.

Whether it's 3 or 6, however, this analysis shows that there's still lots to play for.

Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 04:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114707)
A Little Profit Taking Now
Gold is a bit off its highs but the yellow surged past $430 an ounce and the barrier broken through like a hot knife through butter. The Euro goes for over $1.27 and the Pound Sterling over $1.82. The US dollar just cannot attract enough buyers and weakens in the face of unlimited Yen selling and dollar buying by the Bank of Japan. There simply is little if any effect. The soaring US budget and current account deficits are just purely unsustainable and the dollar has passed the point of no return.

Time to catch a few zzzzz, so "golden dreams with silver linings".

- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
(01/06/2004; 05:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114708)
Five years up to the day - yes, it was worth it!
Gandalf the White (1/6/99; 10:01:45MDT - Msg ID:1662)
Are things looking better -- or should I take off my rose colored glasses ?
The Dow and stock Indexii are blasting into the ionosphere, BUT the rate on the long temp bond in slowly moving upward, the XAU gap opened up today, but is slowly falling back, and the GC9G Feb Gold contract is bouncing about in the 288 range with an increase in volumn level. However, the most interesting change for me are actions of the commodities --
WOW -- HAVE they awoken ? Things are undergoing a metamorphosis --- and I believe that what shall be hatching are GOLD BUGS !
<;-)
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 05:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114709)
Operative
Toothpicks at a premium I really want to give my coin /bullion dealer a call and see what his price is for gold or silver. Seven percent on gold? How about $1.00 over spot on silver for one dealer and he is the lowest. Lets not talk about Silver Eagles.
Price flux will be the name of the game.

Forget cigs. I'm breaking out the cigars.

Slingshot----------------<>
Paper Avalanche
(01/06/2004; 05:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114710)
1.499994 Billion To Go.......
"BEIJING, Jan. 6 (Xinhuanet) -- China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has halted taking in gold of purity below 99.95 percent from Chinese firms in a small step to open the precious metals sector further, industry officials said on Friday.

Firms would have to refine the sub-standard gold so that they could trade the precious metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where 99.95 percent and 99.99 percent gold can be bought or sold, officials from the central bank and exchange told Reuters.

The latest move by the central People's Bank of China, which took effect on January 1, meant that it would stop acting as an intermediary between sellers and buyers of all kinds of gold inthe country, analysts said.

Prior to the launch of the gold exchange in October 2002, all precious metals trade was rigidly controlled by the central bank."

PA
steady
(01/06/2004; 06:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114711)
slowly, rhythmatically, confidently with hamonony , poise , confidence and controll
a 1,and a 2, and a 3, and a 4 ZUBAZOOM, ZUBAZOOM, ZUBAZOOM, ZUBAZOOM, ZUBAZOOM, ZUBAZOOM,
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 06:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114712)
steady
Zum baa ZOOOOOOOOOOOOM
Very Controlled.
Slingshot-------------------<>
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 06:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114713)
Walk in Fields of Gold
Sting In a short while we shall endure the opening of the New York Markets. Be Calm. It is nothing we have not experienced before.
Slingshot--------------<>
Paper Avalanche
(01/06/2004; 07:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114714)
I'm no conspiracy theorist, but......
Since I posted the story on China expanding it's gold market (which likely caused the run-up to $430+ IMO), it has since vanished from the gold site where it was posted just an hour or two ago (which miraculously coincided with a concerted sell effort on the part of the gold-manipulation crowd during the same period of time).

Coinkydink? You decide.

Food for thought.

PA
Paper Avalanche
(01/06/2004; 07:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114715)
Correction to last post...
The story was not taken completely off of the site, but taken down from the top story line and made story #36 in chronological order.

I still thank that this story is the BIGGEST gold news out today. I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

PA
Pizz
(01/06/2004; 08:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114716)
GAB
Just scanned your post, and we seems to be in agreement. A year or so ago, when most bears were in the deflation camp, I was in the "inflate or die" camp. It was simple, M3 was growing as if there was no end to money creation. The FED, banks, and GSE's were pumping like there was no tomorrow.

A couple months back M3 hit a wall. The velocity slowed, then the aggregates. It's still slowing, and by the looks of the real world (home sales, refi's, auto's) it will continue. This, IMO, is why the FED is on hold indefinately. They have not won the reinflate battle, and I don't think they are going to.

The banks are the key, because to increase M3, they have to INCREASE loans, and their isn't a viable sector out there that has either the desire or ability to take on enough debt to pull us out.

Higher import prices? No, people just won't buy because they can't afford to. Basic necessities are starting to take up way too much of disposable.

I think another thing that confirms my reasoning is the stock market. Some are baffled by the rally. I think the markets are saying that it is better to hold stock of companies, even with bubble valuations, rather than the dollar. Scary thought for 2005 and beyond if you think about it.

Right now I'm trying to renegotiate and renew lines of credit, and the easy money is no longer there. The banks are getting tough and when they do, they stay that way for years, not months.

When was the last time you heard any talk of M3 on the financial news, or on the net for that matter. It's a scarier item than gold. . .

I've been playing the game for quite a few years, and like you, I don't see a solution other than a gold standard of some type, but you can bet your boots there will have to be pain to the extent of revolution for that to happen. . .
course a few bankers and politicians loaded up in those old, French two wheel carts (trumbils I think they were called - or were they furry creatures on star trek?) heading for the guiotine (no spelling comments please, smile) might speed the process. . . .

Pizz
Pizz
(01/06/2004; 08:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114717)
R. Powell
Don't ya just love buying puts to protect paper profits. . kind of like buying life insurance - you're betting your going to die and the insurance company is gambling you won't. . and life usually goes on, as the price of silver (smile) - at least for now. . .

Pizz
slingshot
(01/06/2004; 08:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114718)
That's It
You Cabal Stinkers No More! No More! You will not dare cross the line of yesterdays gains.
Keeping in Line with USAGOLD protocol.
Slingshot---------<>
a nation of one
(01/06/2004; 08:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114719)
An interesting similarity between Ancient Sparta and the US

In Ancient Sparta, young males were made to live together in dormitories, and they could not marry a female until they were near maturity. Even then, they had to remain in the dormitory, and a young man could visit his wife only by stealth. Later, when he was older, he and his wife could live together. Because of this practice, young males were forced to decieve those around them, as an institutionalized practice. Only those young men succeeded in marraiges who could successfully escape the dormitory without being found out. Sparta fell, and its system has not returned. In evolutional terms, what this means is that the system which Ancient Sparta used, in determining which males were fit to reproduce, was proven unviable.

Presently in the US, there are very few ways by which wealth may be acquired and maintained, without it being taxed significantly. Whatever may be said about the virtues and necessity of taxation and its result, it must be clear that such practice furnishes the average individual with an incentive to find a way of making and preserving wealth without having to pay taxes. Speaking in evolutional terms, wealth is not as important as reproduction perhaps, but it runs a close second or third. Therefore, these practices have important biological implications. So far, the US has been able to avoid taxing its people to the maximum extent. But by taxing every means of producing and keeping wealth, it does a lot of damage to people, individually. Whether this practice will survive numerous more civilizations is doubtful. And therefore, the present practices, in this regard, can be viewed as being an evolutional trial of a practice that has biological consequences, much like that which occurred in Ancient Sparta, described above.

Gold was found useful by both societies, and it survived Sparta and will also survive the US.

This seems the case, whether good or bad.



slingshot
(01/06/2004; 08:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114720)
Gold
Oh, Chubber chubber.
Gold going to bounce like rubber.
Slingshot-----------------<>
MK
(01/06/2004; 09:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114721)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.

Gondolin
(01/06/2004; 11:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114722)
Slingshot
Rock me Amadeus--- Falco. Great track.
Back hard at work after the Festive Season- much like the Cabal Schmucks today.Jjust an observation.
Windows 95 - good programme
Windows 98 - rubbish programme
Windows 2000 good programme
Windows XP
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 11:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114723)
Earthlink sending jobs to India, Manila
COMTEX PR Linksnippit:

"Under the plan, EarthLink will close its contact center operations in Harrisburg, PA, Roseville, CA, San Jose, CA, and Pasadena, CA and reduce its contact center operations in Atlanta by the end of the first quarter of 2004. EarthLink expects a seamless transition as customer support functions will be routed to its remaining Atlanta staff and to outsourced contact center providers (India and Manila). Approximately 1,300 employees will be directly impacted."

Goldilox:

What more can I say? The "bones" being "impacted" are not wisdom teeth. . . dem bones . . . dem bones.
Gondolin
(01/06/2004; 11:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114724)
Whoops
...sorry bout that...as I was saying and to prove my point (ok maybe that was my fingers)
Windows XP - rubbish programme.
Is there a pattern forming here or am I just imagining things? Has everyone been taken to the cleaners here?
Off topic I know, but nice to see the �423 line holding well and POG bouncing back up.
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 11:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114725)
Whoops again
@ Gandolin

I'm sure we'd all love to see gold at 423 POUNDs STERLING, but alas, it closed at US$422.1.

I cured my OS blues and bought a UNIX Mac.

(:> Goldilox
Great Albino Bat
(01/06/2004; 11:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114726)
Pizz - thanks for your comments. No contradiction there...
Your recent message:

Pizz (1/6/04; 08:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114716)

My further comments:

Yes, we are in agreement, fundamentally. The credit expansion has to come to an end. Well, it can be halted by edict from the FED, a la Volcker, or by simple market exhaustion as the present behavior of M3 is indicating: no more borrowers in sufficient quantity. Either way, the credit expansion ceases - and credit collapse takes place.

Stock market behavior reminds me of what people did when the Argentinian financial system caved in - they bought stocks! An alternative, however precarious. (I guess buying gold was not an option in the Argentinian market). Stocks might be taken as a proxy for things controlled by the stocks.

As to revolutions...don't think of the pols and bankers being taken to the guillotine...they generally manage to escape such a fate, though they deserve it. It's more likely some poor suckers will get the blame...as usual.

The GAB
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 12:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114727)
Gold surges in India to record Rs6370
http://www.business-standard.com/today/story.asp?Menu=22&story=31562snippit:

"This is the first time that gold and the stock market are heading in the same direction. Till now it was always inversely proportional. This implies a strong price trend in bullion in the near future," Jaideep Wairal, director at the Mumbai-based consultancy firm Bullion India Inforservices and Consultancy, said.

Another first of its kind is the gold and silver price trends. Till date, silver moved up in sympathy with higher gold prices, but this time round the roles seem to have been reversed. "Gold seems to be rallying on the back of silver," Wairal said.

Goldilox:

Another analyst looking closer at silver's role in the bull market.
Solomon Weaver
(01/06/2004; 12:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114728)
Mr. Jaideep Wairal must be younger than Jim Pupluva
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2004/0105.html"This is the first time that gold and the stock market are heading in the same direction. Till now it was always inversely proportional. This implies a strong price trend in bullion in the near future," Jaideep Wairal, director at the Mumbai-based consultancy firm Bullion India Inforservices and Consultancy, said.

AND

"Today's new bull market in silver and gold reminds me of the last bull market in gold that began in 1971. Back then like today gold and silver prices were rallying along with equities." Jim Pupluva

POS
a nation of one
(01/06/2004; 12:38:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114729)
rumblings

Dr. Mark Faber quotes Peter Bernstein: "The imbalances are now enormous, far more glaring than at any point in the past. Furthermore, the linkage of the parts are so tightly knit into the whole that reducing any one imbalance to zero, or even compressing them all to a more manageable level, appears to be impossible without a major upheaval . A hitch here or a tuck there has little chance of success. When it hits, and whichever sector takes the first blows, the restoration of balance will be a compelling force roaring through the entire economy globally in all likelihood. The breeze will not be gentle. Hurricane may be the more appropriate metaphor. "

"Sector" refers to one of these: "Private sector saving, private sector investment, household consumption, government spending, government revenues, capital flows, and trade balance."

It would be hard to paint a clearer picture. Whenever someone is able to craft a concise distillation, such as that, about an issue, it helps clarify the landscape. The following are several more highly refined realizations, by Dr. Faber, from the same article.

"I hope the reader appreciates the precarious nature of this state of affairs. The entire US economy is depending on high 'asset inflation' in order to stay afloat! Only if asset prices continue to rise at high rates can consumers maintain their borrowing binge." And,

"This highly artificial recovery is, in our opinion, not sustainable for very much longer, although we should all realize that the fed is fully aware that asset prices must, under no circumstances, be allowed to decline." And,

"...We are in a situation where the imbalances are likely to worsen further until something gives. At some point, the American consumer will be forced to retrench through a rapid loss of the US dollar's purchasing power, which will lead [to] rising inflation rates and inevitably also to higher interest rates." In other words, blood will be spilled.

There are also these facts:

As long as the dollar falls, it will take more and more dollars to buy gold. Therefore gold will cost more dollars. As long as the FED authorizes the printing of more worthless dollars, the value of the dollar will continue to decline. As long as there is a perception that an increasing number of dollars will enduringly cure our nation's economic ills, more worthless dollars will be printed. And as long as the peoples of nations allow their most ambitiously selfish citizens to gain and hold public office, and allow them to do whatever they want to do once they are there, such injurious and ignorant perceptions will persist.

For these reasons, and for others, gold looks very good right now, if your currency is the dollar.

Claimer: The decline of the dollar does not cause me to be happy. (I am an American patriot.) But it does cause me to buy gold.
a nation of one
(01/06/2004; 12:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114730)
clarification

The words not in quotations are my remarks.
contrarian
(01/06/2004; 12:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114731)
Solomon Weaver...Mr. Jaideep Wairal
Just wanted to put in my two cents that Wairal statement that equities and gold are inversely proportional is misinformed--a superficial analysis.

There is no inverse correspondence between gold and stocks that holds over time. I wish I could reference the article that delved into this issue (because I remember reading an article on this issue a year or two ago), but suffice it to say that sometimes when stocks go up, gold goes down, and also viceversa. There is no formal relationship between stocks and gold, and there have been periods of time where the impact of one upon the other varies. If one is to claim that there is an inverse relationship, then one is reaching for straws. There are simply too many other conditions and variables involved to have such a rule be valid.

Certainly a casual observer might theorize an inverse relationship, but all one has to do is look at the historical record to see that no such relationship exists.

I will, however, point to the Dow/gold ratio as a valid relationship between stocks and gold--how many Dows it takes to buy an ounce of gold.

Nevertheless, "inverse relationship of gold and stocks" another example of superficial analysis and misinformation, although perhaps it may not be badly intentioned.
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 13:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114732)
Inverse relationship of Gold to Equities
Certainly superficial. As is often true of interview snippits, I got the impression he was speaking in generalizations, not to be taken as precision data. Unfortunately for the usefulness of his statement, the history of violation of this generalization is much more important than the generalization itself. This point was nearly missed until Puplava's comparison with the previous gold bull.
Operative
(01/06/2004; 13:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114733)
@ A Nation of One : BAM!
Sir, Your recent writing has "kicked it up a notch" and I really am savoring the distilled version you end with. Bravo!

"As long as the dollar falls, it will take more and more dollars to buy gold. Therefore gold will cost more dollars. As long as the FED authorizes the printing of more worthless dollars, the value of the dollar will continue to decline. As long as there is a perception that an increasing number of dollars will enduringly cure our nation's economic ills, more worthless dollars will be printed. And as long as the peoples of nations allow their most ambitiously selfish citizens to gain and hold public office, and allow them to do whatever they want to do once they are there, such injurious and ignorant perceptions will persist.

For these reasons, and for others, gold looks very good right now, if your currency is the dollar.

Claimer: The decline of the dollar does not cause me to be happy. (I am an American patriot.) But it does cause me to buy gold."

- A Nation of One
Solomon Weaver
(01/06/2004; 13:06:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114734)
The great deflation has already hit...or is just 50 miles out.
Mr. Gresham and post 114703.

Just food for thought.

With about $ US 30 trillion of global debt instruments held as assets, and a cascading paper avalanche drop in global dollar index to the tune of 30% (and more to come if you are right), on a real "mark to market" basis, this has the effect of eliminating about $10 Trillion worth of assets off of the world's total bank, corporate, and hedgefund books.

Perversely even, the American half of that $30 Trillion, who marks to market in $ has actually lost "nothing", while the rest of the world, who marks to market in their own currencies, are the ones who's banks wind up with issues of capital inadequacy!!! In truth, if the dollar never comes roaring back, then we all lose.

With an accordant rise in POG from $280 to $430 (used to get a convenient $150)...and multiplied by the estimated 4 billion known ounces of above ground gold, the mark to market increase in gold is about $600 billion....or only six percent of the dollar loss.

Now, imagining how badly books are being burnt by dollar asset losses, and that most of the calm is maintained by some kind of massive global "interest rate and currency derivative" structure (so the books don't look so bad), does it not make a certain sense that the counterparties who have written those derivative insurances (to delta hedge the $10 trillion book value loss) might begin to use the uptrending gold paper market to hedge "against" their losses in the dollar...i.e. use the up in gold to cover their ass(ets) in $.

Do current interest rates on that $30 Trillionish debt mountain accurately reflect the risk most bond buyers would see in a bond which has lost 30% of principle value in the last 24 months, and has a chart with a nicely behaving down channel??

It' almost like were all sitting on the Coast of California, and seeing this huge tsunami that is 50 miles out, and two miles high, rising like a great bulge, so we instruct the children they should move up off the beach and get up behind the concrete "storm barricades".

POS
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 13:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114735)
$$ Bounce
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0A dead cat bounce if ever I have seen one! MEEOOOW!
Mr Gresham
(01/06/2004; 13:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114736)
The Hook
From MK's News page: (Reuters) "Bullion's around 20 percent increase in value this year follows a 24 percent rise in 2002."

Anyone remember that it was the third year -- was it '95-'96-'97? -- of 20+% gains in the Dow that had the public hooked on stocks stocks stocks forever (G-d, the drivel of the financial "planners" screaming from a million magazine covers! "Long-term", blah blah)

What happens if we get our third up year? Will the crowds go wild? (Or will they just mumble in frustration as they stand on line to collect what's left of their stock market 401k? (To make their ARM payments.))
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/06/2004; 13:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114737)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

A new barrier broken over night as gold surged past $30 an ounce only to be pounded lower by bullion banker Morgan Stanley today. Yet other precious metals continued to rally and energy prices are climbing higher. It has been an "interesting" day.

Jon H. Warner
TownCrier
(01/06/2004; 13:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114738)
So much gold, so little time...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html(This should really come in handy for everyone on days like this when the phone-lines are swamped.)

To help save everyone time, for your ordering convenience, and to relieve some of the more routine phone pressure, MK has asked me to automate a portion of the Small Order Desk.

As a result, USAGOLD~Centennial is now accepting online orders for the pre-33 suite of gold coinage (including both of the ever-popular raw and graded $20 gold pieces) for orders under $5k.

Shipping is FREE over $1,000, but if you want more gold than $5,000, you'll want to call it in and take advantage of USAGOLD~Centennial's volume discount pricing.

Bullion orders still require a call, too.

1-800-869-5115 extension 100

see url to access our online ordering system

R.
TownCrier
(01/06/2004; 13:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114739)
The aforementioned gold ordering system
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.htmlI should have pointed out that this system is for domestic (U.S.) orders only. Sorry, Kiwi's, all you heroes in WETA-land will still have to use the phone.

R.
Pizz
(01/06/2004; 14:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114740)
GAB
What the heck, I remember reading an article that the Argentineans actually got to the point that they were buying AUTOMOBILES as a hedge against the falling peso. Course there were no dealers left. . . .but who counts the small stuff. . .

I'm takin' a snow day - 6 degrees, 20+mph wind and blowing snow. . .look out BB, heading your way. . .

Pizz

Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 14:03:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114741)
Online order system
Great idea Michael and Randy-

One bug. I tested the volume discounts using the Arg 5 Peso and the one coin price came up no matter how many coins I entered in the order column. Should be a quick fix.
TownCrier
(01/06/2004; 14:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114742)
Goldilox -- multiple items require use of the 'Update' button within the Cart
It's a subtle thing, and not as intuitive or clearly laid out as it should be, but with the Intercart system we use, when you select a coin, and then specify/increase the number of coins you prefer within the Intercart order-form interface, you need to click the "Update" button to have it acknowledge/recognize that you want more than one. Then you can click the "Continue Shopping" button to return to the inventory page, or else click "Buy Secure" to proceed to the checkout routine.

It can seem tricky. Feel free to play around with it, adding and deleting items from your cart as often as you wish. The only time the contents of your cart matter is when/if you decide to click the "buy secure" button, which signifies that you've made your final choices. Clicking "clear cart" will do just that; it will purge any fanciful notions or obligations and will deliver you (sans coins) to the USAGOLD homepage.

Randy
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 14:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114743)
Multiple coin entries
I tried both the Update button and the Secure button and the price remained at the single coin value. Are you saying that the recalc doesn't happen until the order is finalized?

By the way, as this is probably not the appropriate place for bug reports, I'll send them directly to you if you give me a direct email address.
TownCrier
(01/06/2004; 14:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114744)
I should also point out
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.htmlThis system doesn't "process" your order or your payment -- it simply passes the vital info through to Centennial Headquarters via a secure server where the likes of Marie, Jonathan, George, MK, or Jill process the order, just as they would as if it had been phoned in and written by hand on an order ticket.

Simply nothing more elaborate than a modern tool to convey the pertinent info for an otherwise routine task.

Randy
Operative
(01/06/2004; 14:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114745)
A Letter To My Wife
Dearest Love,
I regret to inform you I have sold the house, barn, and even the John Deere. Same is true for the critters, vehicles, and most of the furniture, except for our oak handmade bed. ( We may have to sleep under the pines, but I'll be darn if Im going to sleep on the ground.) Why?
Well, uh, you see dear, understand it was not my doing, but that certain Michael at CPM opened an online order desk for gold coins and ....OUCH! Don't throw that, I was going to (OUCXH) sell that vase! HEY NOW! Remember I said you never point that at anything you don't intend to (BANG!) ouch.
Wait honey! Let me tell you the great price I got for your set of China and the crystal...Hey, now that is a good idea, why dont you take that axe and go cut some firewood to help you work off that frustration. (Whack)

(Online ordering huh? I am not sure you guys have thought this idea through.)
Mr Gresham
(01/06/2004; 15:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114747)
Another way of looking at things... (& Sir Operative's dilemma)
Lots of commentary about how gold is not seeing as much of a bull market in many other currencies (in other words, tracking the dollar's fall, but stable in Euros, etc.)

Maybe you could say that, as deserved or undeserved as it may be, us USAmericans have gotten the first warning flare that has gone up, in our own currency of note, to announce the gold re-pricing against ALL fiat currencies.

Perhaps since our public has been so anti-gold-deluded, it could be considered a handicap in the race, to give us a little bit of a head start in acquiring the physical?

Sir Operative: "Don't throw that, I was going to (OUCXH) sell that vase!" Is that symbol, OUCXH, a stock tout you're giving us, my man? Sounds like it could be BRE-X's younger cousin, OUCH-X. I had some of that, awhile back. ;)

Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 16:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114748)
qty/discount bug
Townie,

I don't think that clicking the appropriate qty box was the issue either, as I began in the 26+ column of the Arg 5 Peso. Here was my actual trail for debugging purposes.

1. Click Arg Peso $5 26+ quantity box
2. fill in 30 qty on order page
3. Click "update"
4. Results:Updated page listed 30 qty but totaled amount using one piece price

or "secure order"
3. click "secure order"
4. Results: Next page listed 30 qty but totaled amount using one piece price

When I worked at Intel in the 80's we used to walk around the shop singing a parody of the Eagle's "Life in the Fast Lane"

"Bugs in the Backplane - surely make you lose your mind."

Good luck. If you'd like me to test any feature fixes, I'm happy to help. I have a lot of experience chasing SW bugs. It's the least I can do for all the information I've been freely given here.

P.S. I tried both randy@usagold.com and webmaster@usagold.com and the mail server bounced them both back.
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 16:12:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114749)
FED on hold 'til 2005?
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/05/news/economy/fed/snippit:

"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the U.S. economy were the starship Enterprise, then right about now would be the time when Scotty, the ship's chief engineer, would complain to Captain Kirk -- Alan Greenspan, in this metaphor -- that the ship was being pushed too hard.

But Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan and his crew have made it clear lately that they're keeping interest rates super low and the economy at Warp Factor 9 for some time -- perhaps until the far-off year 2005.

To be sure, plenty of observers are already playing the role of the nervous Scotty in the old TV series "Star Trek," and they have a compelling case."

Goldilox:

Linked from jsmineset. Lots of justifications to keep IRs low, especially employment and election, the double E effect.
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 16:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114750)
Sir Goldilox ---- You missed it by that much ---> <----
Data at the bottom of each forum page !
===
� 2003 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved
www.usagold.com
products and service: cpm@usagold.com
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are copyrighted trademarks.
===
<;-)
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 16:31:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114751)
Thanks
@ Gandalf:

Yep, even QA testers miss the obvious sometimes. LOL

-G
21mabry
(01/06/2004; 16:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114752)
Gold
I was thinking about the forum and I think one of the most memorable nights was fall or later of 2002.One night gold started moving and it broke 330 for the first time in a while.I remember the posts on the forum it seemed like that was the night everyones belief in gold was felt confirmed.I do not think since I have been here ever seeing a night when you could almost feel the excitment thru the computer screen.That was the night a hunch became a something much more concrete,that was the night I thought gold could not be held back.That was a night on the forum I wont forget.21
Gondolin
(01/06/2004; 16:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114753)
Fractional Banking and Fiat Money Clarified for Beginners??
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tlaga010504.htmlA little unsure of the rules regarding reference to other sites as I seldom do so, but assume that GE is OK as I have seen references to articles here in others' posts before, so hope I'm not transgressing.

Very good read in an article by J. N. Tlaga discussing fractional banking and fiat money that really clarified a few of the rights and wrongs of banker activities on my part, being a true ignoramus on most financial matters (other than what to do with Ag and Au)for beginners like myself who often get totally lost in the translation of ideas even on this fine forum.

Also apologies to the writer (at University I'd get an E for plagiarism), but the article is long and the following snips are the gist of his argument:

snip

"Of the trillions needless dollars clogging the arteries of the world economy today, none, repeat, none are the product of the fractional reserve banking. All of them are the product of the Federal Reserve counterfeiting. Fractional reserve banking per se cannot produce new money out of thin air. Fiat money and central bank are the necessary ingredients."

--and--

"The only difference between full reserve banking and fractional reserve banking is depositor's permission for bank's loan and depositor's sharing in the interest the loan is going to earn.

Let us restate this point in a language everyone will understand:

In full 100% reserve banking, depositor grants permission to his banker to lend depositor's gold coins to a third party in exchange for sharing in the interest proceeds.

In fractional reserve banking, the banker lends depositor's gold coins to a third party just the same but without depositor's permission in order to keep all the interest proceeds to himself.

Why then -- we ask -- are the Austrian gentlemen maintaining that fractional reserve banking increases the money supply?

Is it because they look at it from the bank accounting perspective? They see two overlapping sets of outstanding "fiduciary media" representing a claim to one and the same reserve in gold coins.

But why so obvious an accounting principle could possibly be wrong?

It is wrong because only one set of those outstanding "fiduciary media" actually represents a claim to the existing gold reserve. The one that is presented for redemption first! "

--and--

"The myth that fractional reserve banking creates new money out of thin air can be maintained only for so long as only one set of the duplicate "fiduciary media" is actually presented for redemption in gold. The holder of the other overlapping set of "fiduciary media" merely deludes himself that he has money in the bank. All that he has is a debt in the bank which is only as good as the bank's ability to repay it. It can never be as good as gold. No one's paper can ever be as good as his gold."

--and--

"People who maintain that fractional reserve banking increases overall money supply out of thin air are simply unable to comprehend that it is not possible to have a cake and eat it too. When there are two sets of banknotes representing the same reserve in gold coins, only one set is valid - the one that is redeemed first."

--and--

"Perhaps the myth that a deposit account increases the existing money supply is believed by so many is that checks and banknotes are being used daily in a multitude of transactions. If we can buy goods and services with checks and banknotes, then the checks and banknotes are as good a money as silver and gold, are they not?

What these simple souls cannot see is that every single check and banknote must be exchanged into gold in order to constitute a valid payment. Those who neglects to attend to this formality are sometimes rudely awakened to the reality that the banknotes they are holding as money are not money at all.

For as long as their checks and banknotes are being honored in payments for their purchases, most Jacks and Jennies will think of their checks and banknotes as real money. It will take insolvency of their bank to make them realize that without redemption in silver and gold their checks and banknotes can only be given to their children to play with.

The more people use checks and banknotes in daily commerce the higher the percentage of their gold deposits can safely be used by the bankers for loans, because the use of checks and banknotes reduces demand for gold coins.

If the local market area would have only one bank, most of the daily transactions could clear without gold or silver, and more silver and gold could be used for loans. But this would not allow for increase of money supply either, it would merely allow for reduction of the local fractional reserve requirement.

A one bank situation is attainable also in large towns by a clearinghouse agreement between the existing banks, where all the transactions of the day of every bank in town are reduced to a net balance which every bank must settle in gold before the sun sets upon it. But this again does not allow for increase of the money supply either. It merely allows to mobilize the existing money supply more broadly.

Without central bank and fiat money it is plainly impossible to defeat gold discipline and actually increase the available money supply at will.

If it would be possible to increase money supply within fractional reserve banking system, central banks would have never been created."

--and--

"The myth of "creating new money out of thin air" by way of the fractional reserve loans is a hocus-pocus maintained by the fiat banking establishment for purposes of distraction and deception.

Why would the fiat banking establishment be interested in maintaining the false belief that new loans increase money supply by a multiplier of the fractional reserve?

Because being accused of "creating new money out of thin air" is incomparably less damaging to bankers reputation than being accused of... "converting other people's property".

"Conversion... may be consummated without any intent to keep and without any wrongful taking, where the initial possession by the converter was entirely lawful. Conversion may include misuse or abuse of property. It may reach use in an unauthorized manner or to an unauthorized extent of property placed in one's custody for limited use. Money rightfully taken into one's custody may be converted without any intent to keep or embezzle it merely by commingling it with the custodian's own, if he was under a duty to keep it separate and intact." Morissette vs United States, 342 US 246 (1952).

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=us&vol=342∈vol=246

The English Larceny Law of 1916, does equate conversion with stealing:

"...a person may be guilty of stealing any such thing notwithstanding that he has lawful possession thereof, if, being a bailee or part owner thereof, he fraudulently converts the same to his own use or the use of any person other than the owner..." Ibidem. (The legal status of a bank is that of a bailee.)

"Creating money out of thin air" implies extraordinary intelligence and skills bordering on supernatural powers. It brings to mind the concept of philosopher's stone sought by alchemists in medieval times.

But "converting other people's property" in the regular course of business is nothing short of racketeering. All it brings to mind is... the RICO statute.

This is the reason why the fiat banking establishment is supporting universities, news media, publications, research institutions, even Nobel Prizes to cultivate the myth that fractional reserve banking increases money supply out of thin air.

The truth is, it does not! It cannot!"

--and--

"Again and again, fractional reserve banking cannot create new money out of thin air. It actually enforces gold discipline.

The first step on the road to creating new money out of thin air is the central bank, then comes coercion of the public to accept a "money" that is professed to be "as good as gold", and then comes a naked fiat central bank note that proclaims on its face: This Note is Legal Tender for All Debt, Public and Private.

Under fully developed fiat money system administered by a central bank, fractional reserve banking becomes redundant, and it is used by a central bank only as a useful administrative device; under fiat, there is no need to maintain money supply discipline, anyone with a credit card can create new money"

--and--

All that needs to be done is to reform it so it can be used to mobilize all available savings for credit and capital formation, without fleecing savers and without causing instability to the financial markets. The only valid complaints against fractional reserve banking were precisely those, fleecing savers and causing financial instability.

What reform we have in mind?

A general rule that every bank must be owned by its depositors!

"When every bank that is not presently a credit union or a mutual bank is required to undergo a formal dissolution and re-incorporation as a mutual bank, most of the problems associated with the banks as we know them will disappear"

end snip


Gondolin: This article clarified much for me and for beginners and newbies struggling with the concepts of fractional banking and fiat money the whole article is well worth a read (but get comfy and turn the background noise off unless it's some relaxing jazz.

I assume there is much debate/smoke and clouds on the matter of whether fractional banking actually adds to the money supply and would be interested in reading comments on this matter from the great minds on the forum.
Waverider
(01/06/2004; 17:31:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114754)
Pompous Prognosticators
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.htmlRandy - this is one of my favorite charts in the archives. Did you by any chance save a few good quotes from 2003 to add on? Maybe if anyone has a good one they could post it for contribution. To get things started..."We have a strong dollar policy." Treasury Secretary John Snow reiterating America's strong dollar policy on Thursday December 4th'03. USDX @ 102 Jan'03 and 89 in early Dec'03. Others?
Waverider (the happy prognosticator)
Kilo
(01/06/2004; 17:38:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114755)
Gondolin - Tlaga article

ALot of what you have snipped may have been relevent under a true gold standard, but those days have long since passed into the darkness. What is being "cultivated by the fiat banking establishment" through this gentleman is very obvious. He seems to fall off the truck early on, and has trouble getting back on throughout the remainder.

"....Of the trillions needless dollars clogging the arteries of the world economy today, none, repeat, none are the product of the fractional reserve banking. All of them are the product of the Federal Reserve counterfeiting. Fractional reserve banking per se cannot produce new money out of thin air. Fiat money and central bank are the necessary ingredients...."

That statement, for the most part, is complete hogwash!

But of course fiat money and the central bank are "necessary ingredents", but no more so than the banks themselves, which are used as the conduit to perpetrate the counterfeiting schemes of the central banks in the first place.

"Gold coins" being used in modern reserve banking schemes? Hardly!

Saying that the Federal Reserve and Central Banks are at fault while proclaiming the innocense of the fractional reserve banking establishment is like saying your right hand is guilty of a crime but your left hand wasn't involved...... they are all a part of the same body.
mikal
(01/06/2004; 17:50:04 MDT - Msg ID: 114756)
More mainstream chatter "dresses up" gold
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2004-01-06-metals_x.htmGold. Numerous favorable perspectives on the metal in recent mainstream news once again.
An almost reverential bias, I hear in a muted voice.
But lacking the devotion and focus found among our gold advocates, they still call it many things:
Jewelry
Industrial input(Utility)
Investment(Savings)
Insurance hedge(Protection against disasters, dislocations, losses, fiat)
Status symbol
Wild speculation
Barbarous relic
Old-fashioned
Which of the above are getting more and more emphasis?
The ones that cannot be easily ignored or ridiculed.
21mabry
(01/06/2004; 18:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114757)
Fox
Neil Cavuto show had a segment on gold today they did a round table on the metal.The two women on the panel seemed neutral on gold with the lady from schwab admitting she was not an expert on the metal.The man on the panel Jonathan dont know his last name has been bullish on the metal for awhile and would be at home on this forum.The segment was led off by a Daggen Mcdowell kinda talking up gold.I know I have heard her in the past make fun of gold investors,these people just hop on any train and act like they have always been on it.They count on the short memory of the american public which is not a bad bet.21
steady
(01/06/2004; 18:19:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114758)
pondering
mr kilo that was sure a heavy post you hammered out there for us yesterday.
Kilo (1/5/04; 12:50:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114645)
Steady - It's ALL relative!

im at a loss to be able to explain what im thinking , guess my mind is trying to sort it out, i think its kinda like what aristotle said once, the more you read the more you think and understand well im at the not understanding thinking almost getting spot, so when it becomes clear to me ill post a reply to the fine answer you gave me. thanks!

ya know ecoism is pondering as well, pondering the effects that its thoughts of self dependency, courage, and firm decesion making, that flow into or create circumstances of individual succss and freedom, freedom for what is rightfully yours, something that you earned by your time, your creativity or by th sweat of your brow, from being discounted by dillution or premired by hot money, yea that kinda freedom, will have upon the planet.
for in making these thoughts turn into action individuals are almost in a sense practicing lassie-fair in reverse on the government. since thru that action govt was hands off the businesses, well now it seems its peope who want hands off the govt, but not in a anarchist kinda way, but in an econmical way, a way that will surley get there attention once more ecohites have figured out what is really happening to there money, there property ( heck how many intellectual law suits u think there have been, while those stooges are fighting over there ideas, the governments are laughing cause they got the best idea of all steal everyones idea of money and repalce it with the hugest ponzi scheme ever run upon the human population, a global far reaching seeeking every corner with lazers and thermal vision goggles as well as computer prying digital spying virusus and forcing those that dont want them freshly minted tokens to submit to unknow time and dates of keyboard launcehed,unheard, unseen missles that devastate there property, because they dont want to play by the so called rules impalmented by those who run the presses. but you see ecoisms problem is the above isnt happening on a world wide basis just in some locals, so while some individuals within a state are taking a hands off the govt not wanting to be associated with them or there actions other individuals within other states look to there govt for direction and controll, and the govt like wise sheppards guide there sheep to verdent gold and silver pasturs form them and there offsprings, now dont get me wrong these shepards have the best sheepherding dogs as well , but its how they are treating there shepps property, they want there sheep to be fat and not to know what no is, so the y open up gold property ownership. So what really is happening? thats what ecoism is pondering how to incorporate this phenominon into its platform, or maybe it doesnt even belong there .
As seen by the recent increase in the pog ecoism is spreading at a pace a lil quicker than a sloth, but one mind at a time, one gram at a time the battle will be won, a return to some form of fairer monetary system, that SUBJECTS everyone to the same principal, and that includes kings and queens, nations and cities,despots, oligarchs tyrants, dictators, presidents, island states and land locked states as well, everyone SUBJECTED to the same rules within a redefined system, on that is fair and honest!

uh maybe we can remove honest money from the oxymoron book this decade what you think?
its kinda embarrasing to have that saying thought of as an oxymoron!
Cavan Man
(01/06/2004; 18:25:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114759)
England in EURO
(they have no rational choice)Blair: I'll take Britain into euro by 2007
By Andrew Grice, Political Editor
07 January 2004


Tony Blair has set a target of 2007 to take Britain into the euro, and wants the Government to agree to a public pledge to secure membership by that date.


CM comment: The "Empire" bled to death in WWI and in the aftermath, never was able to manage the continuance of the myth and legend that fueled HM imperialistic and mercantilistic accomplishments in the Victorian age. It's been all down hill in a macro, geo-political sense ever since. Ahhh; but the MONEY is very old and in GREAT abundance. In the Euro, Great Britain shall continue her dominance of global accounting ledgers. It is her rightful place.
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 18:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114760)
Dollar Slide Continues - Risks of Rout Increase
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=808&ncid=808&e=1&u=/dowjones/20040106/bs_dowjones/200401060922000754snippit:

"NEW YORK -- The relentless dollar selling showed no sign of letting up in New York Tuesday, with the dollar sinking to new lows across the board.

In morning trading, the euro was at $1.2794, up from $1.2664 late Monday in New York. The dollar was at 106.17 yen, up a little from 106.07 yen late Monday, only thanks to aggressive dollar bids from Japanese banks on behalf of Japanese monetary authorities, dealers said.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was at 1.2256, down from 1.2337, while sterling was trading up at $1.8260 from $1.8060.

If anything, the dollar's slide was accelerating along with the increase in trading volume as investors return to the market after the holiday period. With very little to convince them otherwise, certainly not official rhetoric from U.S. or euro-zone policymakers, they're simply putting on fresh short dollar positions, en masse.

The euro was printing fresh all-time highs and zoning in fast on $1.30, the market's next big psychological target. Meanwhile, sterling was up around two whole cents on the day at new 11-year highs.

The dollar's malaise is widespread, with only official buying -- mainly from Japanese monetary authorities -- and a sprinkling of corporate demand appearing to stand in the way of the current run on the dollar turning into a rout."
steady
(01/06/2004; 18:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114761)
chaff!
gold broke 330 durning the morning not the middle of the night. there was no excitemt, just a calvery charge, from the troops who answered teh revelry call that am. long time readers rember, cause they rember me calling them to there posts. rember the bugle call the hosts so graciously left up caus teh link ended in au? and i had to remind everyone why the left them up there , and thn rember the charge link as gold wnt thru 330 that mid morning. i do, so whats this junk about excitment thru a nonliving entity in the middle of the night, what folly and chaff!
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 19:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114762)
Gold 330
@ Steady

For those with commodities accounts, that was a nice opportunity, for those with physical, it was a non-event, closing where it started. For those holding miners as proxy, it mostly occured before the SM opened, and was well on the way back to parity by 9:30AM.

Lends credence to Sinclair's warning to get 24Hr capability as a lot of CABAL action can occur out of reach of some mainstream investors.

Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 19:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114763)
Bouncie Bouncie
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Methinks this dead cat is spending one more of his nine lives! Can he last through the night? That's when the real predators rule.
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 20:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114764)
The Hobbits are betting that the ESF and Japan can NOT do that again TOMORROW !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[da][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GA GREAT show of MANIPULATION !
Look at that VOLUME today !
Looks as if they are running about a day LATE !
Tick Tock
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/06/2004; 20:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114765)
Look Sir Rich ---- ANOTHER Little GREEN "X" on the GOLD P&F Chart !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GStill headed for $460. by my estimation.
Hope we do not have any "hic-cups" along the way !!
<;-)
Cytek
(01/06/2004; 21:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114766)
Was $430 the short term top?
Just read Adam Hamilton's Zeal Intelligence report for Jan.
He is saying that it is troubling to see the dollar plunging so fast while the dollar-short-euro-long trade is among the most popular around. So it would not surprise him to see a really strong short-term rally in the dollar, which would be a typical countertrend reaction within its long-term primary downtrend. Today's dollar shorts in the huge global currency markets will want to cover for profits sooner or later. Now the question remains, what will this do for our budddy the POG. Will it test the 50 DMA or the 200 DMA. Your analysis please.

Cytek
a nation of one
(01/06/2004; 21:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114767)
Cytek

From everything I've been able to gather, it appears the
dollar has no visible support. Also, it appears that
almost all of the upward movement in pog has been
sufficiently retraced. And it's in a fresh trading
channel. I won't predict what other people will do, but in
my view there is presently no external driver to cause pog
to decline significantly at all. The 50 day ma is around
406. I don't expect pog to go near it.
Dollar Bill
(01/06/2004; 21:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114768)
*>*
On Monday, when former Parmalat finance chief Fausto Tonna was led into the public prosecutors' office in Parma, Italy, he angrily told journalists, "I wish you and your families a slow and painful death," according to Reuters.
Good Grief ! How Baathist!
I cant imagine him tolerating any comments stockholders or employees might want to make to him.
I am glad American crooks have thier lawyers speak for them. Otherwise, who knows what madness we would hear.

TownCrier
(01/06/2004; 22:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114769)
At last! The online ordering system is back on its feet!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html
That's what happens to me when I try to get by on only 6 hours of sleep in a 54 hour period.

It's also a mistake to shift text editors mid-stream. Turns out when I briefly went back to error-check the Argentino prices being passed through per Goldilox's alert, I used a different text editor, which (unbeknownst to me) had a nasty effect of automatically inserting a blank space into my code at all occurrances of the "&" symbol, thus busting all of the intercart links and rendering the page temporarily dead in the water.

Arrrrgh! (shaking fist as the computer)

Thankfully, I've finally found and closed all of those bogus coding gaps (using yet a third text editor to do the job), and the page is now back on its feet, passing through info and prices in a happy marriage of the 'actual' and the 'theoretical'.

Enjoy!

(And a special thanks to Goldilox for his persistence in conveying to me the nature of the problem with the Argentino.)

Thanks to MK, too, for his tolerance during my public display of incompetence.

Time for me to invest in some sleep.

Randy
mikal
(01/06/2004; 22:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114770)
Power, elites and the chronicles of cyclic history
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/cook010804.htmlThe Dollar's Fortunes
Rodney C. Cook, Ph.D. -Excerpts:

"One thing for certain, the financial elite that have used the dollar's status as a world reserve currency to amass imperial powers will not relinquish that power readily, and most any defense that can be imagined will likely be used."

"I have long maintained that the Fed in concert with the Treasury will monetize GSE debt, before being forced to link the dollar to gold. This would rhyme with the actions taken by the Weimar Republic to control their hyperinflation.
Fed minutes reveal mention of buying gold mines. They could opaquely rebuild reserves in this manner. With properly constituted netting legislation they could buy gold shares of those miners with pesky short contracts, averting a short squeeze and building that newly characterized deep storage gold reserve.
Confiscation of gold need not be overt. A rewriting of the mining act to include generous royalties, maybe even payable in gold, from land in the "public trust" together with windfall profit taxation would hardly cause a ripple amongst the masses."
Sundeck
(01/06/2004; 22:06:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114771)
Cytek - Drowning dollar and POG
The present down-leg in the dollar (USDX drop of 13, or about 13%)is comparable in percentage terms to the large fall which occurred from about Feb 2002 to about Jul 2002 (USDX drop of about 15, or about 12.5%). The difference between then and now is the level of conviction across the financial world that (a) the dollar is overvalued and (b) gold retains its ancient lustre.

Sure, the shorts will take profits along the way, but I suspect greed will win out in their camp for a while longer yet. The fall is not catastrophic yet - pretty much comparable with previous down-legs. Expect international collaboration (perhaps behind the scenes) to control the slide...as a move too far too fast may hurt too many countries.

Gold? Well I suspect that the proportion of buy-and-hold investors is larger now, so any correction, when it comes may be milder than in the past, in percentage terms... I expect a bit more on the upside yet...

FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck
Goldilox
(01/06/2004; 22:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114772)
Hyper inflafla historic scenario
@ Mikal

The Weimar hyperinflafla is not even as scary as what happened in Germany immediately afterwards. The people were so beaten down and frightened that they welcomed the 3rd Reich and all its World Domination rhetoric. Human Rights? Power is much more emotionally satiating.
Dollar Bill
(01/06/2004; 22:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114773)
*>*
Well, while the fed pumps and starts the road of inflation and hyper at that, the govt, helps make sure workers cant bail themselves out by working overtime for more pay.
"..the Labor Department, in a summary of its plan published last March, suggests how employers can avoid paying overtime to those newly eligible low-income workers.
"Most employers affected by the proposed rule would be expected to choose the most cost-effective compensation adjustment method," the department said. For some companies, the financial impact could be "near zero," it said.
Employers' options include:� Adhering to a 40-hour workweek.
� Raising workers' salaries to a new $22,100 annual threshold, making them ineligible for overtime pay.
If employers raise a worker's salary "it means they're getting a raise � that's not a way around overtime," Frank said. The current threshold is $8,060 per year.
� Making a "payroll adjustment" that results "in virtually no, or only a minimal increase in, labor costs," the department said. Workers' annual pay would be converted to an hourly rate and cut, with overtime added in to equal the former salary.

Essentially, employees would be working more hours for the same pay."
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 23:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 114774)
21mabry � FOX and other ramblings

I did not see the show on FOX but I am willing to bet that "Jonathan" is Jonathan Hoenig aka "The Capitalist Pig" (his own words) and is a hedge fund manager bullish on gold. Many times he has been a regular on FOX's "Cashin In" and would hold up a Gold Eagle or Swiss Wafer and tell people to buy gold if anything and especially for new investors with little cash to invest. He also is bullish on a few unhedged debt free low cost producers as well. Of course he has several other holdings as well. He took a lot of abuse from other members of the panel (especially Dagan McDowell and another former female member whose last name is Cramer and now appears occasionally on CNBC). This was long before the wild "gold rocket ride". "He who laughs last laughs best" as it is often said, because his model portfolio has far outperformed the portfolios of the other clowns on the panel. He is a "Gold Bull" for sure.

I used to watch the show on Saturday mornings on FOX. Lately there have been a lot of changed attitudes by many of the carnival barkers on these financial media shows who made fun of anyone who would hold even a small position of portfolio insurance. I even have seen the transition of CNBC's Mark Haines from being very derisive of "gold bugs" and anyone who suggested gold as a holding to being very cordial to guests who favor precious metals � such as David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund. Liz Clayman on the early opening CNBC show "Wake Up Call" (the same name I used here on the forum for my early morning layout of commodities and futures for several months a few years ago � wow! Has it really been that long?) � has been generally "pro-gold" for quite a long time while most all other CNBC talking heads were foaming at the mouth at the mere mention of gold, including her co-host. Now almost everyday there is discussion on precious metals, oil, and NatGas prices and is even noted in the "bug" (the lower right hand corner of the TV screen in the "pre-market"). Bill Griffith who hosts the mid day "Power Lunch" is a carry over from when CNBC was an independent cable show call FNN (Financial News Network) and he also hosted a Thursday night show with a "Gold Bug" investment advisor named Elliott Pearson when for an hour the talk was all about precious metals and mining stocks (don't know what ever happened to Pearson since then but perhaps he is no longer alive as it was several years ago).

I at times am saddened that my friend the late Harry Bingham formerly of the Van Eck Funds and a serious "gold Bug" isn't around to see the events that have transpired since his demise. The last time I saw him was at a conference in Elko, Nevada a few years ago when he made his case for a revived gold market (unfortunately he was a couple of years early but he was right that "now" was the time to back up the truck and buy precious metals when prices were sinking below $300 an ounce). I somehow envision him sitting back looking down grinning ear to ear though. I am raising my glass of Negra Modelo to him now as I write this after a night of Martial Arts practice. I am sure he would be pleased at the changing attitudes as well because he too had to face the carnival barkers on CNBC from time to time when gold was an object of scorn.

Never fear though, I see the dollar sinking much lower (30-50% at least), declining mine supply, rising demand, liberalized precious metals markets, and central banks unlikely to sell an appreciating asset (though most is long gone through loans and sales, and will never ever be returned except a small portion from some suffering mega-hedgers). I have always maintained that precious metals are "portfolio insurance" and the solid base of every prudent investor's "wealth pyramid" rather than an investment (though it could be that as well but my take is one of safety first, investment in the middle tiers, and speculation last). It's not too late as the dollar has only one direction left and that's lower (the reasons are clearly stated in most of my DMRs). I hammer this message a bit hard at times but precious metals are a hedge against various financial and geopolitical upheavals and an important "currency hedge" that carries its own "intrinsic value" separate from government promises of "faith and credit (whatever the hell that means).

Ah, but I digress and ramble � must be the hard work out and the Negras.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 23:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114775)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava/King (Special Edition)
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmYesterday's market wrap up is still up (see link). Well worth reading from both a Fundamental and Techical perspective (though I favor FA myself). If you haven't taken the time to read it then you are missing a brilliant piece of work!

Hopefully we can get permission from Jim Puplava to get this issue into our "The Gilded Opinion" series as it relates to precious metals and nails it very well and will be preserved for "posterity" as it were. I think it is worthy of placing into our collection of brilliant essays.

What say you Randy (Townie) and MK? Would it be possible? It is an article that puts precious metals into a bright spot light and ties together much of what we have discussed in bits an pieces over the last couple of years (at least).

Cheers!

- Black Blade
1340cc
(01/06/2004; 23:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114776)
Brew
B.B. Have you ever tried Indeo beer? Yummmmmm As good or better than your favorite brew.
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 23:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114777)
ONE SAFE BET ON RATES: GREENSPAN CAN'T DROP 'em
http://www.nypost.com/business/44517.htm
A good and almost funny article by John Crudele about the Fed rate. Some would say it's a "catch-22" but I say Alan Greenspan and the boyz and girlz at the Fed are "stuck between a rock and a hard place". Crudele of the NY Post has a keen eye and a dry sense of humor at times. He has often brought the cockroaches at the BLS into the spotlight an how they "massage" economic data. He does raise some interesting points this time though but without the usual dark humor.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/06/2004; 23:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114778)
1340cc
Sorry I never even heard of that one. I tried "Chili Beer" from AZ, good beer with a jalape--o in the bottle but the after effects for the next couple of days were - well "uncomfortable". Though I got VD or something considering the painful extrusion of bodily fluids (of course I don't embrace dangerous activities as such). ;-)

Actually Fat Tire or Sierra Porter on tap are quite tasty too. One of my favorites is "Bayern" beer from the Iron Horse micro brewery in Missoula, MT and worth a visit should you ever get up that way. A female resident married a brewmeister from Germany and brought him back where upon they opened a brewery in the old Railroad station house. Ah those were the days. Another was ABC beer from Singapore (8% alcohol). I learned to read beer labels after that. After a sixpack I was quite mellow to say the least and only then I figured out something was amiss. ;-)

Cheers!

-Black Blade
1340cc
(01/07/2004; 00:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114779)
Beer convert
I didn't drink beer untill I found Indeo. It was in the late 70's at a Shakeys Pizza place on East Colfax in Denver. You can find it but it's not a easy thing to do. If you are ever in Mexico they have it there.

Tried Chili Beer ONCE and that was enough!
Liberty Head
(01/07/2004; 00:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114780)
Beer, Get You Some

I waited until after the new year to sell off some equities. While it was a no brainer to buy gold when it was $280, I'm more reluctant to buy more right now.
I decided to hold off for a couple more weeks to see if there is a pull back in the POG.
I find waiting for pull backs is easier when the frig is well stocked with my favorite beers. Guinness Extra Stout or Sierra Stout give me the stamina I need to last out the waiting period.

Electrolytes and conductors, a natural pairing.

Best Wishes
Gold Standard
(01/07/2004; 02:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114781)
Trillions and trillions.....

I can recall visiting a site a couple of years ago, called something like www.pennywise.com, that showed ridiculously huge numbers like $7 trillion in a format even idiots like myself could understand.

For instance, it showed that only a couple of billion one cent pieces would build a life-size replica of the Empire State building.

I've Googled until I'm blue in the face - does anyone have the URL?

TIA, GS
Usul
(01/07/2004; 03:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114782)
Gold Standard
http://www.kokogiak.com/megapenny/You need to try harder.
Economan
(01/07/2004; 04:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 114783)
Another example of gold ignorance
"The same people who are buying gold now are the same ones who were buying the Nasdaq at the 5000 level."

I have seen this statement in several different places the last few weeks. How someone believes they are the same beast escapes me. For the record, I was selling stocks a few years ago (which some people thought was crazy at the time.)and I'm still a buyer/holder of gold today. I actually like to see the above statement because it shows the wall of worry that gold is still climbing.
Gold Standard
(01/07/2004; 05:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114784)
@ Usul

That's exactly the site I was after.

My scaling was out by a factor of 1,000, but then again, so is Sir Alan's!

Many thanks!

Cheers! GS

Paper Avalanche
(01/07/2004; 06:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114785)
A glimpse into the future
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=84&art_id=vn20040107020521346C950874&set_id=1Interesting article on how paper is already beginning to burn and gold stands as a ready replacement.

PA
Socrates964
(01/07/2004; 06:08:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114786)
Cytek
Basically, Hamilton is singing the same tune in a different key.

He bet and bet and bet against the Nasdaq for 6 months and must have seen 100% of his capital go up in smoke. To paraphrase Lady Bracknell, to get a trade wrong once is a misfortune, to get it wrong twice starts to look like carelessness and to get it wrong three times looks like pig-headed idiocy.

Since we know that the Dow and the Nasdaq are being carried to ever greater heights on a tide of paper, the only thing that will push them down is a sign of monetary restraint by the Fed, which would also support the dollar. This is unlikely to happen in an election year because it is much more expedient in political terms for the Us government to please an indebted electorate rather than its international creditors.

Hence I suspect that Hamilton is just dressing up his losing stock index trade in forex clothes.

Evidently, I could be wrong, but we'll have to see the Euro recoil by more than 2 cents. The last rabbit they pulled out of the hat was Saddam Hussein, and it was worth less than 2 cents of countertrend on the Euro.

FX speculators unwinding a winning long Euro/short US$ trade is one thing. Putting on a potentially lethal short Euro/long US$ is an entirely different proposition.

I don't see the Euro at 1.27 as a fortuitous event caused by speculators. It is there because the ECB has understood that the $ has entered into an inflationary spiral, particularly with regard to commodities. The sellers of cognac and planes may protest, but I think that their voices will be drowned out by the broader economy that wants stable to falling oil prices. In addition, I think that there is a vocal constituency on the Republican Right that actually approves of a weak dollar because it 'punishes the Europeans'.

Note that in Euros, oil prices went down by 4% last year. Some punishment.

Only the Japanese seem not to have adjusted their stance. I can only assume that this is because they tend to be notoriously bad international investors. Even they are getting the point, though, as can be seen by the slow appreciation in the Yen.
mas
(01/07/2004; 06:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114787)
E.U. - IR's
Spoke with bankers in EU over Christmas, guess's are IR's are going UP. And not down as TV talking heads say.
Do I believe they will go up, sure. As everyone says you can't keep them down forever, besides does the EU economy suffer? Don't think so.
Question, now Euro gold 332, when will it break lose from exchange rate tie and look at Aus/AU price - hell the 20/40 week moving averages are flatlining it together almost on the same line.
It'll break soon. Then what? Guess's?
Usul
(01/07/2004; 06:29:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114788)
Gold Standard
You're welcome. An amazing visualisation, is it not?

All the gold ever mined (about 145,000 tonnes) would fit into a cubic space measuring just 20 yards on each side.
Dollar Bill
(01/07/2004; 06:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114789)
*>*
"It may be, in fact, the case that China's monetary authorities are fully aware of the country's underlying fragility and that the mooted notion of re-pegging the renminbi against a basket of currencies would provide scope, not for gradual revaluation, but devaluation. The virtue of a direct currency peg is its underlying transparency, something which is clearly lost in the event that a link is established against a basket of currencies, the composition of which is as yet indeterminate and easily manipulated. It makes little sense to move to such a basket if the real objective is the expedient of gradual revaluation of the renminbi in a highly transparent way that would curry more favour with Washington.

But if the attempt is to achieve covert devaluation in response to weakening domestic conditions, then such a move makes much more political and economic sense. If this is indeed the road China is choosing to go down, it will certainly reduce its ability to continue purchasing US assets at the rate at which it has been doing over the past few years, which has perilous implications for the dollar exchange rate. Indeed, one would envisage similarly smaller inducements to purchase US assets on the part of all of Asia, since most would almost certainly respond to a Chinese devaluation (covert or overt) by a comparable competitive currency devaluation �
a great backdrop for GOLD perhaps, but certainly not in the interests of global economic stability. "
Dollar Bill
(01/07/2004; 07:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114790)
*>*
Lets see, we have an inflationary policy, ok, lets cut overtime with the labor dept ok, and then after a big stock year, lets cut pensions. Lets make sure retirees cant float a boat also !
"more than a third of U.S. companies with a pension plan say they'll freeze benefits.
If Congress and regulators do not provide relief, 21% of employers say they will freeze benefits at current levels, according to a survey of more than 200 large companies by consulting firm Hewitt Associates. And 17% say they will halt benefits to new employees.

Companies are considering pension cutbacks despite big market gains last year, which boosted pension plan assets at companies in the S&P 500 by $112 billion, the amount that pensions in the S&P 500 are underfunded grew to an estimated $259 billion last year, from $212 billion a year earlier, Standard & Poor's says."
mikal
(01/07/2004; 08:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114791)
Bonds fall ahead of five-year auction
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htmBonds drop ahead of 5-year auction
Treasury yields rise before $16 billion auction and release of Friday's Dec. unemployment report. January 7, 2004
Excerpt:
"U.S. Treasury prices fell Wednesday, pushing yields higher, as investors awaited note auctions and anticipated an improving picture of the employment market when figures are released later in the week. The two-year note shed 1/32 to 100-1/32 to 1.85 percent and the five-year note dropped 1/8 of a point to 100-15/32 for a yield of 3.25 percent.
The benchmark 10-year note fell 1/4 of a point to 99-17/32 to yield 4.30 percent, up from 4.27 percent late Tuesday, and the 30-year bond shed 3/8 of a point to 103-18/32 with a yield of 5.12 percent, up from 5.10 percent late Tuesday. Treasury sells $16 billion of new five-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. Traders have been optimistic that the auction would go well thanks largely to expectations of demand from Asian central banks, which have been buying dollars recently to slow gains in their own currencies."
Cytek
(01/07/2004; 08:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114792)
@ A Nation of One, Sundeck, Socrates964
Thanks for your comments on my question,very informative. You can't get this kind of advice anywhere other than USAGOLD.

Looks like the markets await another SNOW job at 11 am on the Dollar. The dollar is up but almost everything is down.
Mr Gresham
(01/07/2004; 08:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114793)
Socrates964
I don't remember if I've asked you this before -- are you in Rio or SP?
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 09:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 114794)
$422 battle
Quite a battle going on for $422. If this range narrows any more, they'll have to report the thousands digit, as well.
MK
(01/07/2004; 09:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114795)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.

Mr Gresham
(01/07/2004; 09:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114796)
P.A.'s link/glimpse
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=84&art_id=vn20040107020521346C950874&set_id=1Sure your name won't change to "Paper Bonfire" someday?

"Because of the shortage of Zimbabwe dollars, many customers have resorted to using bank-certified cheques for commercial transactions. It was also easier to use such cheques because of the huge wads of Zimbabwe dollars required for simple purchases.

"With official inflation at 619 percent, Zimbabwe dollars have become worthless and piles of them are needed to buy a simple breakfast of bread, milk and eggs."

Inflation makes a _shortage_ of dollars? Sure 'nuf -- read the Weimar link on this site. (The overall BULK value of the paper currency loses value against real objects, as the quantity printed loses out to the vanishing multiplier of unit value.) You could substitute some other dollar names down the road aways.

Hey, isn't Zimbabwe the country that got it's "start" from ol' Cecil Rhodes? Wonder if he was around back in England when all those European central banks were getting their fiat legs under them? I know he's been gone from Africa awhile, but those post-colonial mood swings go on, don't they?

Americans may have been half-smart in latching onto real estate, with their last strands of credit pull. But it's at least a viable entry in the political lottery to come.

Interesting thing here in USA will be how we handle the BULK of debt which accompanies a devaluing bulk of currency. Will the unlevered holders of debt (after netting out their own debts?) end up owning everything -- upside-down real estate, surviving corporations?

Or will debtors force (and bankers see the wisdom of accepting) something more in the middle, where those who can hang on to their cash flow, get to hang on to their de-pricing McMansions, effectively on a lifetime rental basis? Such a deal!
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 09:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114797)
Spot and Spike
@ Gandalf

Spike seems playful today, but Spot is a bit lethargic.
Mr Gresham
(01/07/2004; 09:56:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114798)
Mundell
http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=19&aid=13988Sinclair has some interesting commentary today, including a response to Mundell's idea at the link above...
Cavan Man
(01/07/2004; 10:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114799)
Mr Gresham
Dr. Mundell could only be referring to gold. If he wasn't, he should have been.
Denarius
(01/07/2004; 10:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114800)
Universal Currency Standard
http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=19&aid=13988-
Several recent posts discussed the question of a universal standard against which currencies could be valued. The postings seemed to point to more basic 'what is wealth' & 'what is real' questions. This can be related to Robert Mundell's proposal for an international monetary system.
-
Too much on one plate? Maybe not. I answered these questions for myself a few years back but have never had a beer review of my conclusions. I would be interested in opinions on them from this forum.
-
Is there any interest in persuing this topic?
-
If not, I'll be over at the mylifeisbeer forum.
-
Nomad
(01/07/2004; 10:51:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114801)
Our future, writ large.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/news/economy/credit/index.htm?cnn=yes

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040106-103400-7397r.htm

http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/122115|top|01-06-2004::21:32|reuters.html

http://www.fourthturning.com

The next 20 years will consist of a long slow slide leading up to a Crisis (as outlined in the Fourth Turning, the ONLY authors prescient enough to predict both the nature and the timing of 911 in advance).

More low paid immigrants here, jobs flowing overseas by the contatinerful, increased credit problems, and an increasingly divided nation.

A House divided cannot stand against itself.

When I lived in China for several years it was most interesting to me that while the money was a different color and the opportunities fewer, the stadard of living was almost that of the Weest, at least in the urban areas.

Our future is a gradully lowered standard of living (while most other countries rise to meet us in the middle) and an increase in the divide between the haves and the have-nots.

The debts and hard assets you acquire now will determine whether or not you come out as one of the few winners or one of the great multitude of LOSERS in the great Crisis to come. Survival of the smartest and the bravest for sure.

Nomad


ax
(01/07/2004; 10:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114802)
TREAS SEC SNOW AGAIN BACKS STRONG US DOLLAR

This came out today:

Reuters
US Treasury's Snow repeats backs strong US dollar
Wednesday January 7, 11:58 am ET


WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Wednesday that the United States backs a strong dollar and said its value should be set by market forces.
"Our policy is as it's always been," Snow told reporters after addressing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "As I have stated many, many, many times we support a strong dollar."

He added: "A strong dollar is in the U.S. interest and of course we believe that the value of the currency should be set in open, competitive markets."




Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 11:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114803)
Credit Crunch Coming?
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/news/economy/credit/index.htmsnippit:

"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The record percentage of consumers behind on their credit-card payments in the third quarter could be the ugly result of a weakening housing market -- and an ominous sign of greater credit pain to come, some economists said Wednesday.

Others, however, suggested an improving labor market would ease the sting of a softer housing market and help stop the bleeding in consumer balance sheets.

The American Bankers Association (ABA) reported Tuesday that 4.09 percent of all credit-card accounts were delinquent in the third quarter, the highest rate on record, and said the weak job market was probably to blame.

But Morgan Stanley senior economist Bill Sullivan suggested there may be another culprit -- the end of the mortgage refinancing boom.

"It is no coincidence that households found it more difficult to maintain current payment schedules just as the volume of refinancing activity began to dry up as the second half of the calendar year got underway," Sullivan wrote in a research note Wednesday."

Goldilox:

As the refi boom ramps down, difficulties in credit maintenance ramp up.
Paper Avalanche
(01/07/2004; 11:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114804)
Price Prediction for Friday......
If my memory of recent price action is any guide, whenever we have a huge spike in price on a Monday, follwed by strong suppression on Tuesday, and then not as strong suppression on Wednesday that does not break through some new floor accomplished on Monday (i.e. $420 in this most recent case), we almost always see a spike into the close on Friday at or above the high on Monday (in this case above $430). I am betting that we close above $430 on Friday.

I cannot substantiate this gut feeling and I have no data to support my position - call it a hunch based on observation of daily price action while at work. I may be wrong. When it comes to price predictions, I am 99% of the time.

For what it's worth.

PA
Belgian
(01/07/2004; 12:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114805)
Robert Mundell - Liberation
R.M....with the emergence of the euro and its ( the euro)instability against the dollar... !!!
I would give him a second Nobelprice for this very, VERY biased analysis. An UN-stable euro and a stable dollar !!! Jesus... !
I can hardly believe that R.M. could/would have said this. Or was he forced to come up with such an upside down statement as another introduction to renewed efforts for a "global currency" to be negociated on new balance of (monetary) power terms !?

What is wrong with the "old" International Monetary (dollar)System, that it should be replaced by a new one...if the dollar is defined as "stable" against a newly architected, modern euro ?

Through CNBC, the euro (and Euroland) is constantly ridiculed in more and less subtle ways, as the dollar exchange rate continues to weaken (and recover) less orderly. Volatility seems to increase to visibly.

Very powerfull oil-money is already (stealthly) behind the euro (concept). Yes the dollar can join the new global currency...but not so on exclusively dollar-terms anymore.
The dollar lost its most powerfull friend...GOLD !!!
Socrates964
(01/07/2004; 12:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114806)
Mr Gresham
SP
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 12:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114807)
Brazil Central Bank to Revive Dollar Purchases to Weaken Real
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ap_WAOuB2NFo&refer=latin_americasnippit:

"Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank said it will start holding daily auctions to buy dollars for the first time in five years in an effort to stem a rally in its currency that threatens to slow an export-led economic recovery.

The bank's auctions will replace daily purchases the Treasury had been making -- without regular notice to investors - - of about $115 million a day through state-run Banco do Brasil SA in the fourth quarter of 2003, bank President Henrique Meirelles said yesterday. He said the bank will buy a similar amount. The bank hasn't made regular dollar purchases since it allowed the real to float against the dollar in 1999."

Goldilox:

Another CB joins the team of dollar buyers trying to hold their currency up.

Gee . . . Brazil defaults on their foreign debt every 5-10 years. How much can they afford to throw away during a dollar free fall?
Dollar Bill
(01/07/2004; 13:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114808)
*>*
"...the (Japanese) ministry has arranged a repo deal with the Bank of Japan in which it can get funds by selling foreign bonds to the central bank, buying the paper back at a later date." I wonder if the US Treasury can sell its wares to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which in turn repos them to the BOJ, and then places the money into its custodial account at the Fed for market intervention in dollar assets. That truly would be a "money printing" machine."
Great Albino Bat
(01/07/2004; 14:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114809)
Belgian - Robert Mundell

Robert Mundell is a hired hack that works for the US financial establishment. So much for the rationality of any expression of his.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(01/07/2004; 14:33:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114810)
A look at the daily gold chart

On another forum, the daily gold chart shows a series of ups and downs - the buyers are buying, and the sellers are obstinately selling, trying to bring the price down, now that the euphoria of a rapid rise in the price of gold, has given way to a pause for breath and contemplation of the quick rise in gold in silver prices.

The sellers - we have learnt about them through the years - sense the moment as propitious for tumbling the price down to say, $404?

Now, if the sellers are really hot to pursue gold investors to give them a sound thrashing that will teach them not to invest in the barbarous relic, why then, they might throw all they have into the fray and obtain - say, $396? Well, not impossible but I'd say, doubtful that will happen.

Again, as another poster here has commented, and passed on to us his uncle George's wisdom, it's not the eddies that count, it's the tides.

The tide is with us and will be with us for a long, long time.

Use all pull-backs to purchase your gold from CPM!

The GAB



USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/07/2004; 15:13:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114811)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

Gold drops and US dollar rebounds on a fair Treasury sale and "surprise" - Treasury Secretary John Snow says he supports a "strong dollar policy". That and more currency intervention and possible bullion bank short sales worked in combination to psuh gold 70 cents lower.

Jon H. Warner
Cometose
(01/07/2004; 15:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114812)
Black Blade
Sir ......
I read another recap of an article posted earlier this fall that you responded to ....

I wanted to check back in with you about the fishing at Yellowstone Lake and on the Yellowstone River......

Also I hear things are relatively hot in the Norris Geiser Basin on a 28 by 7 mile stretch that has buldged 5 inches since 96 and understand that the BASIN is now CLOSED to TOURISTS
Trees are dying?
Can you verify ?
Do you fish the aforementioned areas and if so have you noticed anything peculiar...

THanks in advance for your response and
I apologize to the forum for the off topic post.....however this is in our back yard so to speak and perhaps pertinent to follow up on .....

Melting Pot
(01/07/2004; 15:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114813)
Bank Activities Reform Commission Launches Investigation Into RagingBull.com
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2003/12/prweb95564.htmThe International Bank Activities Reform Commission is revealing to the general public in the United States that Chat rooms, Bulletin Boards and Message Boards run by Lycos, Microsoft, and Yahoo such as Raging Bull and others are being used by government agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Bank, the FBI, the CIA, Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security to spy on Americans without their knowledge.

Government agents have used the boards for counter intelligence operations in an attempt to discredit information being posted by whistle blowers who have been ferreting out government crimes and wrongdoing with the full knowledge of President Bush and the intelligence community.

In many cases, the entire contents of a person's computer can be siphoned out and transferred to a massive database in Virginia for further analysis and additional counter intelligence measures.

End Snippet:

Ya know maybe this spying stuff really isn't so bad after all.... If government agents start spying on anti-government chat rooms and forums, some of them might figure out what's going on inside the government!


Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 15:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114814)
WELL !!! --- the Hobbits were WRONG !!! LOOK at the VOLUME on this chart !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[da][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GThe ESF and Japanese Gov'n threw EVERYTHING (including the Kitchen Sink) at the LONG BOND Today !!
OF Course, the price did not increase much, BUT there was a lot of PAPER trading hands !
THREE DAYS in a row ?
NAH ! can't happen !
<;-)
===
BTW, the power JUST came on a few minutes ago, was out all last night. There was a "TREEMENDOUS" fight in this area between the Ents and Orcs last night ! The four inches of snow from the day before, did not help anything. BUT, the freezing rain during the night did it ! There were body parts of Ents EVERYWHERE ! My CONCRETE patio had five large diameter branches about fifteen feet in length strewen about. Poor Ents !! BUT, the Orcs were beaten back and they took their casualties with them !
(I think they consider them FOOD !)
<;-)
melda laure
(01/07/2004; 16:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114815)
Burn baby burn
"Goldilox:

Another CB joins the team of dollar buyers trying to hold their currency up."


Perhaps I might clarify: they are trying to hold their currency DOWN: hold head under water until the investors drown. Print Print, hit the print button!

I hear the Japanese have threatened to buy 1.3T USD this year (and print up to 140T yen to do it) That's T as in Trillion.

There was, I belive, some poster here that said something about "all paper will burn"... Well it's burning, deliberately; rather than get backwashed while they watch atlantis sink, they've decided to sink along with us in a desperate attempt to keep exports and current account surpluses up.
steady
(01/07/2004; 17:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114816)
i tried to tell ya
re that message about hte govt in chat rooms , i tried to tell ya, they have been practicing directing conversations and usng whatever physcological tricks they can on individuals within those rooms, especially the yahoo stock watch room.
go in there type gold
about 15 times and nothng else and watch the naysayers come out fo the wood work.
its like they have a counter and after so many hits of the word gold kabbom the reinforcemnts are brought in to bad mouth it.

how do i know , ive done it more than once, i use to get pissed at the nat=ysayers till i realized they where plants , then id just go mess with em and type gold gold gold until they came rushing in to tptb rescue . sounds far fetcched dont it, but it i kid u not it does happen in fact it happend so much stopped going there untill about 10 minmago when oi saw that artile and yep the trick still brings em out with the fallicies and delusional thinking abot how the allmighty dollar is as good as ever and gold will tank and that , nevermind there lies are all the smae, fullof nonsense, doublre talk and pure bull>>>>>
steady
(01/07/2004; 18:13:17 MDT - Msg ID: 114817)
pssssst hey hey you pssst hey hey
speaking of spywaer, whos got the skinny on whose been talkig to who about what and at what price.... and well how much game manship has been going on saying well i got this and i got that bit of info and we have synthasized it all together and your out look is bleak, looks like deep storage time for you and your compadres.
while on the other side they are going you aint got jack cause are skin is very very thick and hardend by many cases of this same type pluss we got the judges , but did .... where did those computers exactly get recycled at, ya know the ones it replace in late 2002 right when how was taking us to court the first time, rember that cleansing opertion did we really get rid of em or hmmmmmm,

but its been way to quiet over at that spectrum of the cool gold scene, invitation please>
wonder what type of supposedly price depressing earth shattering news we will get from that case shortly.
should be interesting to see what gets said and what happens.
Solomon Weaver
(01/07/2004; 18:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114818)
Treasury volume and BOJ (Gandalf)
Hey Gandalf....

I have taken a bit of a personal interest in the political decision which seems to to have been struck in a backroom in Japan (sounds of koto playing, warm sake, and a very dignified white faced geisha bowing gently as she presents a set of "hashi", fills a glass, or offers the next course with a light singsong voice) related to the BOJ agreeing to finance Uncle Sam for 2004 (come hell or high water) shi kata ga nai.

Interestingly, I even had the chance last January 2003, while in Tokyo, to have been in the dinner company of a very nice old Japanese gentleman who was serving as our business host and translator (very excellent English skills), who claimed to have personally already lost several $100 million betting the wrong way on Treasuries and dollar strength. When I told him that my then prediction for end of 2003 was 100 yen to a USD, his eyes rolled back into his sparcely be-haired head, and he informed me that would be terrible...to him and many other well heeled Japanese elite. I am certain that all that prevented my prediction from coming true was the 2003 BOJ actions.

Nonetheless, my kind Gandalf, I cannot make heads or tails of the very technical multiparameter chart which jumps up when I use the link you have just provided.

Might I be kind enough to ask you, (or perhaps a knowledgable reader) to translate those bars and lines into a simple number, and compare that perhaps to certain averages and historical record highs.

Poor old Solomon
Melting Pot
(01/07/2004; 18:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114819)
Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 18:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114818)
Isn't the K-winter great......Nippons crapping their pants when daddy war bucks goes bankrupt! It's like the members of the liter losing the teat for the first time....
steady
(01/07/2004; 19:03:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114820)
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the gold silver ratio is at 67.75
Max Rabbitz
(01/07/2004; 19:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114821)
melda laure
"I hear the Japanese have threatened to buy 1.3T USD this year (and print up to 140T yen to do it) That's T as in Trillion."

Max.....are you sure it's not Tons?


Sundeck
(01/07/2004; 19:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114822)
Max Rabbitz and Melda Laure Japanese Purchases of US dollars
Max...are you aware that $1.3Trillion US 1-dollar notes weighs about 1 Million Tonnes?

No kidding...each note weighs about a gram, so 1000 notes weighs about a kilogram, so there are about a million notes to the tonne and a trillion equals a million times a million.

So...in round figures $1.3trillion dollars weighs a about million tonnes, give or take a bit...if delivered in 1-dollar greenbacks.

Of course, computer digits are weightless, which makes the logistics a whole lot easier.

;-)

Sundeck
Subcomandante Tomas
(01/07/2004; 19:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114823)
@Usul, Gold Standard
Another visualization is that the cube would fit on a little league baseball diamond.
Waverider
(01/07/2004; 20:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 114824)
Solomon Weaver
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]wallyyay[df][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GThis should be easier - I've changed the chart to a line and charted the maximum time it allows which is the past 3 years. I too find the candlestick charts very confusing especially as Stockcharts uses a color coding scheme which does not conform to the standard text-book color codes and definitions. Cheers!
Waverider
Max Rabbitz
(01/07/2004; 20:41:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114825)
Sundeck
I think valuing dollars and yen in tonnes is appropriate at this point. Will digital dollars be hedonically adjusted to account for decreasing memory storage costs? Right now I'm looking for a better TV so I can play my DVD of "Pirates of the Caribbean." Top choice right now is an RCA 27-inch with component connections for DVD and highly ranked video quality for only $229 (don't need digital, plasma, or HD). Not an endorsement but thank you Asians. Then there's a surround stereo system for home theater. I think I can escape reality for under an ounce of shiny.

I would also like to encourage all central banks to dump all gold still left in storage as quickly as possible because I'm getting tired of waiting for the next knock down�..not the piddly little things I've seen lately.
Solomon Weaver
(01/07/2004; 21:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114826)
(No Subject)
.
Solomon Weaver
(01/07/2004; 21:48:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114827)
Max Rabbitz - Arigato Gozaimashita
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]dallyyay[dc][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]⪯f=GSore ne...gomen nasai.

Thanks for doctoring Gandalf's pictorial......by reducing your version to a daily period over the last six months, I can now see how there have been only about 6 specific days in the last six months which have enjoyed as much volume as today....(see my link)

and all of them do appear to be strong buy side volume, that move the price back up......(i.e. weaken the yen).

Just think how powerful you must feel if you are the lone executive on the island of the rising sun who gets to make that call over a cup of coffee.

Poor old Solomon
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 21:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114828)
Thanks Sir Solomon Weaver !!! (someone really does read my messages!) <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daoayiay[da][p][vc60][iLa12,26,9]⪯f=GSolomon Weaver (1/7/04; 18:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114818)
Treasury volume and BOJ (Gandalf)
Hey Gandalf....
< snip >
Nonetheless, my kind Gandalf, I cannot make heads or tails of the very technical multiparameter chart which jumps up when I use the link you have just provided.
Might I be kind enough to ask you, (or perhaps a knowledgable reader) to translate those bars and lines into a simple number, and compare that perhaps to certain averages and historical record highs.
Poor old Solomon
===
PLEASE take a look at the SAME chart, but I have changed the chart parameters to minimize the overkill that is possible on "StockCharts" !
I am now showing "OHLC sticks" rather than "Candlesticks", and the VOLUME as a separate chart segment !!!
(NOTE the HUGE increase in volume today ! and the "PRICE RANGE" was VERY TIGHT -- (JUST like someone said "COME ON" -- "We will take all you have at this price !"
(NOW, who could that have been ?)
I have also KEPT the "MACD", as that is my indicator of "Trend Change" (in a non-chop situation).
I hope that this helps ! LET ME KNOW !!!
<;-)
21mabry
(01/07/2004; 21:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114829)
Zimbabwe
The article in the financial times today showed the disaster that is Zimbabwe.Some of the few people well off the article stated were gold holders and gold smugglers.I remember a prof. at school last year spoke of his support for Mugabe in class.Zimbabwe use to export food now it cant feed itself.What a tragedy for the people of that country.21
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 21:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114830)
Thanks Lady Waverider !
You beat me to it ! <;-)
One can spend time and look at all the chart from ONE month to three, and six months, and then a year, to get a better picture of what HAS HAPPENED !
LOTS of flexibility with these charts !
Waverider
(01/07/2004; 22:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114831)
U.S. Pension Agency Chief Resigning
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040107/financial_pensions_6.html"The director of the federal agency that insures U.S. pensions announced on Wednesday that he was stepping down, while repeating his warnings that U.S. taxpayers might be called upon to bail out the agency. Steven Kandarian said he was leaving the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. for family reasons. His resignation letter to Labor Secretary Elaine Chao also said the underfunded pension system needed quick action to fix it. "We have learned these past two years that current pension funding rules are inadequate to ensure sound funding in (pension) plans at the greatest risk of termination," Kandarian said in the letter to Chao. Workers and retirees had lost promised benefits, while the PBGC had suffered multibillion dollar losses, he said. "If we do not take action soon, these consequences will repeat themselves, or worse, U.S. taxpayers may find themselves called upon to bail out the pension insurance system," Kandarian said."
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 22:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114832)
MORE --- Sir Solomon Weaver !! <;-)
USING your chart -- please note that the intersection of the TOP trend line and the BOTTOM trend line INTERSECT in about TWO MONTHS at a level of just less than 110 !
Interesting ?
Tick Tock
(I can wait to see, because I am still gathering YELLOW !)
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 22:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114833)
Questions for Lady Waverider ---
Could that the same reason as the little brownish furry rodents leaving a ship ?
===
"If we do not take action soon, these consequences will repeat themselves, or worse, U.S. taxpayers may find themselves called upon to bail out the pension insurance system," Kandarian said.
===
Who else "BUT the U.S. Taxpayers" pays ALL the Government bills ? (Just how much do the Businesses pay after all those "Bookeeping" adjustments ?) AND where do THEY get that monies to start !
<;-)
Max Rabbitz
(01/07/2004; 22:28:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114834)
21maybry
May I ask how much you paid to hear the Professor expound on "President" Mugabe? Tuition is going up here in Virginia and elsewhere. States can no longer afford to support the now highly paid Professors and Administrators of government mandates and regulations. Polliticians can't say no to the elite.....so students will have to pay and pay and pay....until they can't borrow anymore. Where will there be employment to pay back these huge college loans? Not everyone can be a real estate agent, tort lawyer, broker, or financial advisor. The young have a huge burden.



Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 22:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114835)
PruBear Market Summary - Rob Peebles
http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.aspsnippit:

The dollar held its own today, perhaps due to Treasury Secretary John Snow's�straight-faced�testimonial�that he supports a strong dollar policy. Gold fell 90 cents to $422.30, helping to push the Gold Bug index down 3.3%. Crude oil weakened by 8 cents to close at $33.62 and gas prices fell about 3 cents to $6.878.

The American Bankers Association calculates that credit card delinquencies hit a world record in Q3. Delinquencies reached 4.09%, up from 4.04% in Q2. Not coincidently, consumer debt (which doesn't include mortgage debt) hit a world record in October. Even excluding mortgage debt, the Fed figures that consumer debt comes to almost $19,000 per household.

Disco fever
The only problem with debt is that there's not enough of it to satisfy investors. Thanks to the latest rally in junk bonds, high yield yields fell below 7% yesterday. According to news reports, that's the lowest level since the 1970s.

Goldilox:

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a Krugerrand today!!!
Toolie
(01/07/2004; 22:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114836)
So what do you make of bush's decision to allow Mexican workers to take any job that an American "doesn't want"?
Before Spencer Abraham was appointed Sec. Of Lethargy�.er Energy, He was a Senator from my state. He introduced a bill that allowed the auto manufactures to import a great amount of labor from abroad under an H-1B, L-1 or temporary/tech, work visas. There were provisions in the bill to "protect" domestic labor by demanding proof from the prospective employer that the job could not be filled from the local talent pool. Suddenly, jobs that had been done by highly experienced but non-degreed talent required a bachelor's degree. Coincidentally, the wages paid for the replacement labor was 30% less than the cost of domestic labor. The employers simply altered the requirements to hold that job, then had access to cheap labor.

Bush now wishes to expand this program to ALL employment in the U.S.

Strip away all the posturing. It is a program designed to rebalance the cost of labor to resources within the U.S. economy. In a U.S. that doesn't have sole authority to print the world reserve currency, the price of all non-domestic resources rises. The price of domestic labor must fall. This latest program is an effort in preparation for a controlled crash. What else can it be?

Like Dad used to explain: It's not the fall that hurts you, it's the sudden stop.

What color is your parachute?
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 22:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114837)
Reuters Gold Report
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4089029≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=marketssnippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - COMEX gold sagged further from 15-year highs on Wednesday as the dollar steadied and gold investors took profits, but the bullish mood that greeted 2004 remained firmly in place.

Silver and platinum also backtracked, but did not stray too far from Tuesday's multi-year peaks.

February gold ended off 90 cents at $422.30 an ounce, extending Tuesday's retreat from its first foray above $430 since 1988. The contract bottomed at $420.50 Wednesday after a morning rally ran out of steam at $425.40.

"At the end of the day the trend remains intact. The market consensus -- the technicals, the fundamentals -- are still pointing to higher commodity prices -- in U.S. dollar terms, I have to specify -- across the board," said Graham Leighton, a vice president at Societe Generale. "That tells you this is largely a dollar move."

Estimated volume was a moderate 48,000 contracts, down from the offifial 66,471 lots that changed hands in Tuesday's roller-coaster ride.

Gold surged on Monday and early Tuesday, extending last year's 20-percent rally. Investor diversification out of the falling dollar and worries about instability in Iraq kept gold in vogue as a safe haven.

"We started off the year on a very positive note when the market wasn't back to full strength or capacity," Leighton said. "We're at more realistic levels now that we had a bit of a correction, and the market is back to full participation."

Goldilox:

I hope "full participation" means Spot and Spike are on the same page again soon!
Toolie
(01/07/2004; 22:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114838)
(No Subject)
Free Trade destroys managed economies. Gold is the money of free trade.
Gandalf the White
(01/07/2004; 22:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 114839)
Sir Goldilox and Sir Toolie
Goldilox -- Spot and Spike are resting and awaiting the new shipment of Roo meat, scheduled to arrive soon !
Toolie -- Oh, to be able to write as VIVIDLY as you !!
<;-)
Waverider
(01/07/2004; 22:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114840)
IMF Sees Risk of Disorderly Dollar Drop
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040107/economy_usa_imf_dollar_3.html"Large and growing U.S. budget and current account deficits raise the risk of an abrupt drop in the value of the dollar, which could hit U.S. and global economic growth, the IMF said on Wednesday. Although the dollar's adjustment could occur gradually over an extended period, the possible global risk of a disorderly exchange rate adjustment, especially to financial markets, cannot be ignored," the International Monetary Fund warned in a new report on Washington's fiscal stance. "An abrupt weakening of investor sentiment vis-a-vis the dollar could possibly lead to adverse consequences both domestically and abroad," particularly since U.S. debts to the rest of the world are at record highs, the fund said."

Waverider: Have you noticed there have been more headlines of late re: the risk of an abrupt $$ devaluation and consequences thereof. I used to think in terms of "if" the guano hits the fan, now I firmly believe it's only a question of when.
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 22:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114841)
GWB Immigrant Labor reform
@ Toolie:

AMEN!

GWB made it sound like these were all domestic and farms jobs. We're gonna need a lot more gardners and housekeepers when we are battling just to keep the house!

Send the tech jobs to India, the manufacturing jobs to China so we can all work for the CABAL cutting their grass!

Who was it that said " We're becoming a nation that takes in each other's laundry?" - only if we can wash it cheaper than the "temps" from overseas.


"In a land of milk and honey, I wandered thirsty in the rain."
- the Seldom Scene
Solomon Weaver
(01/07/2004; 23:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 114842)
Gandalf....I am not really much of a technical analyst
Sorry to say my old wizard, charts seem to me like hands...a good fortune teller can always seem to read something into them.

I also read the link below on the Director of the Pension Insurance who quit.....I think the "family reason" is that his wife convinced him it was political suicide to remain and be the fall guy.

I have a certain feeling that this issue of "capital adequacy" in pension funds is serving somewhat like the canary in the mine for the much larger systemic problem of capital adequacy in all large corporations, banks, insurance companies, etc.

I come back to my thought of a few nights ago that given a world which has about $30 Trillion worth of dollar denominated debt, and given that since that debt has been held by these large global players as a primary capital "asset", the 30% drop in the dollar must equate to a capital deflation on the order of $10 Trillion. Is it not perverse that the world has devoted so much of their liquid savings to dollar investments, such that they are now forced to make their own home currencies worthless, just to try and preserve the value of their savings...and the solvency of their own banks, insurance companies, and pension funds? In light of that, why is it so strange to think that the BOJ would not create a mere $1.2 Trillion of their own funny money to try and stem that tide.

Something in this reminds me of that little story where a wealthy businessman asks an investment advisor how he might insure that he would have as much money when he died, as he did today....and the advisor pulls a revolver out of his drawer, hands it to the man, and says the only way would be to shoot himself right now.

poor old solomon
Black Blade
(01/07/2004; 23:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114843)
Comatose - Yellowstone

Comatose � Just got in so sorry for getting back to you so late. Yellowstone is essentially an active volcano (or caldera if you wish). There have been reports of doming in Yellowstone Lake and occasionally new hot pools, mud pots and geysers appear from time to time and the heat and sulfur gases kill nearby vegetation. I am not all that up to date on what new activity has occurred recently though. The fishing for cutthroat, brookies, and rainbows is as good as ever though. You can take as many lake trout you want only you must keep them as they are introduced and are a threat to native fish. I prefer fishing the streams and rivers myself (fly fishing of course). I live close to the park though so I really should keep up to date on any new activity of course being a geologist. ;-)

- Black Blade

BTW, it is said that the BOJ is still heavy in selling Yen and buying foreign currency (USD and Euro) tonight as they have been all week. We are talking $Billions here. Some said nearly $5 billion last night but did not say how much in after hours after the Tokyo close. They are scared out of their wits and getting quite desperate. The Yen printing presses are smoking! And yes, the MOF has given the BOJ the word that they can spend over Y140 Trillion to "manage" the currency. As I have been saying - the Yen is nothing but a joke of a currency, but then they have no raw materials - they buy raw materials, assemble trinkets, and sell them to foreign markets. No wonder many well heeled Japanese have been and still are buying gold and platinum. Even the Japanese banks are insolvent. Ouch!

Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 23:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114844)
Miners
This is not a thorough analysis, but in my portfolio, the producers got hit much harder than the juniors (except CDE, who floated $130m in converts today). Does this suggest to anyone else that the sideways motion is temporary?

Gold held a pretty solid foundation at $419, so it seems that all today's selling did was verify the new bottom of the range.

PA - Methinks you've been reading Sinclair, who says "two, three days tops".
Black Blade
(01/07/2004; 23:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114845)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

I was curious to see where our leaders have spent most of the borrowed money, so I did a quick Google search and found a website called federalbudget.com that gives a breakdown of the whole thing. BY FAR the biggest contributors to our nation's debt have been interest payments on existing debt, welfare programs, and military spending. Now I ask you this, did you personally benefit from any of the three biggest spending areas? You didn't benefit from the government's interest payments. In fact, you are paying higher tax rates because of the interest payments. If you are reading this site, you are probably not receiving welfare benefits. If that is true, then you are the one that is subsidizing the welfare recipients. Finally, benefits from excessive military spending are open for debate. I have to emphasize excessive, because we are now spending more on our military than all of the rest of the world combined!


Black Blade: The debt keeps soaring and more will be required to finance the growing debt. But we can just inflate our way out leaving the Japanese and Chinese holding the bag. ;-)
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 23:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 114846)
correction
@ PA - oops, I just reread JS. He actually said "One day down, three or four more trading days�to go -�maximum -before the price of gold makes its next move to $430.30 and beyond. "

My apologies. I really should double check before I quote!!



Black Blade
(01/07/2004; 23:46:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114847)
BOJ Currency Intervention

The BOJ has spent over $28 billion buying foreign currency (debt) on Monday and Tuesday and it is expected that number will be close to $41 billion by end of trade today (Wednesday) according to a "market source" as reported by Reuters. This is pure desperation allright. The smell of fear is extremely potent and only a fool would not be able to discern it. Ugly times in Japan lately. Japanese currency traders must be raking it in by letting the MOF and BOJ do all the heavy lifting at the expense of the average Japanese citizen who is getting royally screwed. Comes wit the territory I guess.

- Black Blade
Goldilox
(01/07/2004; 23:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114848)
BOJ intervention
@ BB:

Damn, $14B a day. That's almost "real money", in the words of the late Everett Dirksen!!!

I remember when the word "intervention" was used to begin treatment of substance abuse addicts. In this case, it seems to be part of the disease.

Kinda like all the methadone addicts created by "treating" heroin addicts with more drugs.
Druid
(01/08/2004; 00:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114849)
Black Blade (1/7/04; 23:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114845)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0104.html"Black Blade: The debt keeps soaring and more will be required to finance the growing debt. But we can just inflate our way out leaving the Japanese and Chinese holding the bag. ;-)"

Druid: BB, I can't imagine Japan and China or any other country for that matter be willing targets of an inflation hose aimed right at them. At some point, they become a conduit for the newly inflated dollars, coupled with a portion of their existing dollar reserves, and feed directly towards the metals. At this point, the jig is up and your thoughtful warnings of being prepared come into serious play. Also, in addition to your excellent comments and analysis on oil and gas, if you hadn't the opportunity to read the posted URL, I thought you would enjoy it. It's a great read.
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 00:17:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114850)
Daily Reckoning - Bonner
http://www.dailyreckoning.comsnippit:

Bill Bonner, back in England:

*** From the King Report: "The dollar is in the toilet and gold is rallying on that jackass Fed Gov. Bernanke's comments that the risk of a dollar crisis is low and it's misleading to value the dollar only vs. the euro. The market construes the dolt's remarks as either the Fed is signaling that it wants to keep rates low for the foreseeable future and they're not concerned about the level of the dollar or Fed officials are clueless fools. In either case, one doesn't want dollar exposure. These clowns need some real world business experience.

"The dollar topped in Feb 1985 but traded slightly lower until mid-Sept 1985 when it collapsed after the Plaza Accord. Stocks crashed just over two years later in mid- October 1987. But stocks in 1985 were the mirror image of the dollar. They traded slightly higher until the dollar collapse in mid-Sept and then more than doubled by August 24, 1987. As we keep harping, stocks love inflation and a collapsing currency for awhile, but later there is hell to pay. 30 months after the Feb '85 dollar peak, stocks crashed. Or to look at it another way, 23 months after the dollar tanking commenced, stocks peaked.

"As we forecast months ago, we'd look for a stock market peak in January and then a rebound rally in March that should approach if not exceed the January high. But after that, look out.

"This view also coincides with the presidential cycle. Wall Street pundits stridently trumpeted the bullish propensity of the third year of a president's first term, but they've been silent about what ensues. That's because the following year, the election year, typically has a top in Q1, a decline into late spring, a sharp rally into the conventions, and then a severe decline that commences after the conventions."

Goldilox:

I seem to remember after the hoopla of 2000 elections, the Nasdaq belly flopped to the tune of a sixty-something percent haircut, followed by an additional 50% "trim" the following year. Look out below!!!
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 00:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114851)
Awesome eBook site
http://www.web-books.com/eLibrary/Business.htmI just found this site in a search for eBooks. Links to all kinds of stuff.
Operative
(01/08/2004; 00:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114852)
@ BB & Comatose RE; Yellowstone Area
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/Just got on this puter, but noticed there was some quakes today near Yellowstone. Sorry if discussed earlier, but wanted to give you a heads up asap.
Operative
(01/08/2004; 01:11:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114853)
@ Goldilox Thanks For the Link
That last link is a keeper. Adding it to my Research Folder and can see will have something to do this coming weekend. Good find.
Knallgold
(01/08/2004; 02:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114854)
euro intervention
There is lot of talk in Europe about the pain level of the euro -on NTV one journalist wondered as it was already declared at 1.20 weeks ago,now it has been postponed to 1.30 by the experts "maybe we just shouldn't believe in the experts anymore" she said in a bright moment.

What follows is usually talk about intervention by CB's (lowering IR,buying $'s).Sometimes it sounds a bit like begging-what a comfortable position the ECB is in!Even though I doubt they will buy Dollars,I guess they have Another plan to relieve pains.Ever heard of the Gold valve?FOA teached us Gold will serve as an alternative to the euro,preventing too many $'s chasing the euro to economically unhealthy levels.

The mainstreamers surely will miss this scenario completely... have you noticed the statement recently about the US trade deficit now its own problem?Sounded like a preparation to me then.Plus we know the paper Gold market is driving in the red zones.

Probably a good time for a "physical only market" relieve?
Sundeck
(01/08/2004; 03:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114855)
Golden future for gold in China
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2004-01/08/content_296852.htmGood read on golden happenings in China...
Sundeck
(01/08/2004; 03:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114856)
Vietnam authorises more gold imports
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1517930-6078-0,00.htmlSnip:

"HANOI - Vietnam's central bank says it has authorised the import of an additional 10 tonnes of gold during the first quarter of this year to stabilise gold prices which have soared in recent months.
"This decision was made last week by the State Bank of Vietnam because of the rise of gold prices on the world market," said an official from the bank's foreign currency management department.

He refused to reveal the total 2004 import quota awarded by the bank to traders. Vietnam imports 70% of its gold requirements every year. "

Sundeck: Dang! Suddenly everyone is after the stuff...

Socrates964
(01/08/2004; 04:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114857)
POG-P&F
Sir Gandalf may disagree with me on details, but on the P&F chart the $431 peak did more or less confirm that gold had run out of steam for the time being. As you will remember from previous posts, this method did forecast the top pretty accurately when gold was in the 390s.

Theory as I interpret it (a la Dorsey) suggests that we need to go 3 boxes down, which on current form, means a move down to below 412 (intraday) is needed to recharge gold's batteries. Alternatively, we need to rally to somewhere between 432 and 436 and then come back to 416. At this point, a brief dip to 41i.50 or so seems more likely. Assuming this happens, we then have to rally back above 428 for the signal that will take us as high as 451.90.

At least that's what the P&F chart is telling me.

Now, in the greater Fibonacci scheme of things, we are still looking very good in that we trashed the 415 level in style. This means that we are still on track for a 127% retracement of the 415 to 255 downmove that takes us to 458 (the 127% level. This is only a minor resistance level, which once broken sets us up for the 161.8% level at 514.
Socrates964
(01/08/2004; 05:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114858)
P&F 2
I should perhaps add that P&F is not infallible and is valuable for giving a rough and ready guide to the question of how much 'potential energy' a stock has. Sometimes stocks defy gravity. E.g. look at a chart of Intel.
steady
(01/08/2004; 06:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114859)
MR REG HOWE
hey i rember reading one f the dispatches about the unintended consequences of the suit and the financial markets.

we do not need to apolgize for pusing everything that is fair honest just and noble. no we dont have to be if the consequences of there folly is a burning of the resturants and starting over well them lets all take the medicine and get it over with but we certainly dont have to offer apologies for others transgressions agains others trust otherwise you wouldnt have had to file the suit in the first place , which migh not have lead to alot of the stuff that you and your outstanding compatriots have unearthed for those who still want to uphold the personal standards of fairness, and level playing fields for all.


steady
(01/08/2004; 06:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114860)
kilo!
its not all relative though,
since we deal in a paper game where its just created, central banks can print the heck out of there currency and buy the heck out of the dllar and therefore suppressing the pog in there unit of account in order to let those i n the know buy and buy gold at cheap prices, when all elites in that specific country get as much gold they need then trhe buying of american dollars will stop , and the selling of them same dollars wil begin exasperating the situation, so its not all relatve at the moment when one can leveerrage there printing press to print faster to b uy what the fed wants to sell so tehy can keep there pog lower. accumulation time in those countries, silver especially in the south american countries, whose culpitability will be redeemed when they spring the argem bomb.
anyway at teh moment its not all relative not when trhe printing press races are one to keep ones price of gold lower so the elite of said country get there fill, no wonder physical demand is rising so fast!
steady
(01/08/2004; 06:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114861)
headrush!
whew gold was getting to high smoking thru 420, had to take a munchie break and find some more good stuff for the next event!
Melting Pot
(01/08/2004; 07:04:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114862)
BOJ spent Y3 trln in intervention this week-source
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040107/markets_forex_intervention_1.htmlSNIPS:

TOKYO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Japan, worried that a strong yen could hurt an export-led recovery in its economy, spent about three trillion yen ($28.3 billion) in the first two days of this week to hold the currency down, a market source said on Wednesday. That figure compares with some 20 trillion yen ($188 billion) spent on yen-selling currency market intervention in the whole of 2003. The source said the Bank of Japan, acting on behalf of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), sold about 2.6 trillion yen on Monday. Despite the massive intervention, the dollar (JPY=) hit a three-year low of 106.06 yen later that day.

About 400 billion yen was spent on Tuesday when the dollar touched a low of 106.09 yen, the source said.

In late Tokyo trade on Wednesday, the dollar was holding just above that level, at around 106.20 yen.

The Japanese authorities are thought by some analysts to be desperate to prevent the dollar from falling below 105 yen, since that would trigger heavy options-related selling of the U.S. unit, but traders say it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 106 yen.

More @

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040107/markets_forex_intervention_1.html

"Japanese authorities are thought by some analysts to be desperate to prevent the dollar from falling below 105 yen, since that would TRIGGER heavy options-related selling of the U.S. unit"

So a 105 YEN is where all hell breaks loose, eh??? I guess the Nippons are realizing that $28 billion just doesn't go as far as it did last year, does it?
commish
(01/08/2004; 07:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114863)
Oriental Wisdom
Japan pours their money down a rat hole and Vietnam is increasing it's Gold holding. In the world of international trade even a 12 year old can tell you who is the wiser of the two.
Cometose
(01/08/2004; 08:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114864)
solar flares
Just got word the two large solar flares went off yesterday and we just had two more today so far.....affecting our electromagnetic field here.....perhaps market activity as well
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 08:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114865)
Viet-Nam
It's nice to see someone "buying" to stabilize the price. Everyone using that term before was wearing short shorts!
Waverider
(01/08/2004; 09:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114866)
USDX
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=5&t=l&a=2Boy, that 41 billion fix by the Japanese certainly didn't last long - like heroin, another injection is needed mightly quickly!
Arcticfox
(01/08/2004; 09:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114867)
Great forex chart here..real time
http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.aspeom
MK
(01/08/2004; 09:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114868)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.
Henri
(01/08/2004; 09:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114869)
Comatose
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/gif/First two animations from the left are impressive Gold and blue ones. Yes this type of thing has the potential to disrupt not only markets but other stuff...looking for decent auroral displays.
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 09:40:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114870)
DX
@ LW

When the DX hit 85.7 and stalled, my cat jumped off my lap and went back to bed. I think he finds "dead cat bounces unamusing!"
Buongiorno!
(01/08/2004; 09:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114871)
Black Blade --market report
Bravo! One of the best of many, IMO, esp. the last few paras. A very good summary.

Included was mention of the use of 22-4 carat gold as both jewelry and money in some parts of the world. I have always thought that was a great idea. The ladies get something they like and can pinch off a link or two if needed to make a purchase. This product is unforgetable, beautiful, and lesser carat product simply pales by comparison.

Mining officials have indicated to me that they are receptive to the idea of pouring some of their production into simple bangles, chains, whatever--but just do not have the interest or capability to market them. If there were sufficient interest, would our host be willing to consider marketing such product through his excellent network?

Gold sold this way may bring a somewhat better price to the producer, and would be "off the market", thus reducing the need for forward sales. Is there a "win-win" situation here....thoughts?

BUONGIORNO!
Mr Gresham
(01/08/2004; 09:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114872)
Mercantilism
I think I remember in reading Adam Smith how he argues against mercantilism, where the exporting class of the nation takes control of the official reins, the military adventures, and the monetary system, all to profit its own enterprises at the expense of the economic efficiency which creates a platform of benefit for all.

We are used to speaking of nations, "Japan", "China", as if they were each a single interest. Isn't it more likely that one faction, probably the exporters with their focused program and political influence, has taken control of the fiat monetary power in each country?

(Is this what Europe has learned to resist, offering instead a recommendation of golden savings?)

When Japan dilutes its conscientious savers' accounts by printing Trillions of yen, and passes the equivalent value over to US Treasury and US consumers, who benefits?

Japanese (and European, and every other exporting land) employees are told their jobs depend on US consumers continuing to buy, buy, buy. But real purchasing power cannot be created except by real work creating real products. Here in the yen-avalanche, the average Japanese (the worker's retired parents?) is being drained on net to support this exporting flow. It was a pot too rich to pass up pilfering.

If the real efficiency-net loss in all of this is, say, a drain of 10% of the nation's real capital per year, what do the exporters care, if 5% ends up in their pockets?

Same with China, only it's their cheap labor force, being used as a work farm (even though they may feel prosperous on the way up) to put that 5% into the exporters' private pockets. ("Communism" -- what a great facade it's been!) Whatever happens to the nation as a whole is incidental, in their view. They "internationalized" their outlook -- and assets -- long ago!

When savers -- and workers -- wake up to the game, probably long after it's stalled, and their losses become painfully visible, they will choose savings in a real asset, and paychecks in real money.

Ever see any FT or USAToday or NYTimes articles on the end result of export flows? "Cui bono?" is the question they all ignore as they report the deficit figures. Deep Throat still has the last word in all this: Follow the money.
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 10:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114873)
Jump Spot Jump
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1$425 breached - off to the races!!!
a nation of one
(01/08/2004; 10:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114874)
to Arcticfox (1/8/04; 09:31:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114867)

Thanks for the link.
Mr Gresham
(01/08/2004; 10:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114875)
Ten-ton Tet
Corrections: Short, shallow -- from here on?

Fewer weak hands holding, former weak hands scrambling to get back onboard.

I wonder how many years Vietnam has waited to make an announcement like this.

The car is here. It's only business, Tessio...
RS
(01/08/2004; 11:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114876)
I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/08/b.../08FUND.html?hpNote: The above link is to the N.Y. Times online edition, which requires a subscription to access it.
I saw this story linked from another website ( a non-gold discussion forum) and I have not verified the link.
--------------------------------------------------
Snip:

I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy
WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 � With its rising budget deficit and ballooning trade imbalance, the United States is running up a foreign debt of such record-breaking proportions that it threatens the financial stability of the global economy, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund.

Prepared by a team of I.M.F. economists, the report sounded a loud alarm about the shaky fiscal foundation of the United States, questioning the wisdom of the Bush administration's tax cuts and warning that large budget deficits pose "significant risks" not just for the United States but for the rest of the world.

The report warns that the United States' net financial obligations to the rest of the world could be equal to 40 percent of its total economy within a few years � "an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country," according to the fund, that could play havoc with the value of the dollar and international exchange rates.

----------------------------------------

I wish everyone here a prosperous 2004.
rs
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2004; 11:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 114877)
THANK you Sir Soc for your Gold P&F Chart review !! <;-)
Socrates964 (1/8/04; 05:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114858)
P&F 2
I should perhaps add that P&F is not infallible and is valuable for giving a rough and ready guide to the question of how much 'potential energy' a stock has. Sometimes stocks defy gravity. E.g. look at a chart of Intel.

Socrates964 (1/8/04; 04:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114857)
POG-P&F
Sir Gandalf may disagree with me on details, but on the P&F chart the $431 peak did more or less confirm that gold had run out of steam for the time being. As you will remember from previous posts, this method did forecast the top pretty accurately when gold was in the 390s.
===
Yes, indeed the old "triangle" formation did project well the coming of $430. and now --- I too agree that it should now be followed by a SLIGHT correction, ----- BUT, my Crystal Ball tells me that something else is going to change the timing and that we shall see $460. before the SLIGHT correction arrives to visit ! ----- WHAT is "that something" you ask ?
I forsee that the MASTERS of Stock Market "PUMP & DUMP" have just about run as far as they can and that the DOW and Ducky are at the PINNACLE ! ---- THAT will cause the P&F chart to continue UP without the SLIGHT correction that should be coming.
We shall see soon !
<;-)

RS
(01/08/2004; 11:33:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114878)
Article: I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040108-9999_1b8imf.htmlThe same article may be freely accessed at the above link...

----------------------------------------
"look out! .... it's a STAMPEDE !!!"
gargoyle
(01/08/2004; 11:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114879)
test
test
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2004; 11:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114880)
WELCOME Sir Gargoyle !!!!
gargoyle (01/08/04; 11:36:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114879)
test
===
Yes, it is working !
NOW, let us hear about what you SEE, from that HIGH POSITION !
<;-)
a nation of one
(01/08/2004; 12:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114881)
Re: RS (01/08/04; 11:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114876)

Interesting, isn't it? The entity that made the American
debt possible, and the IMF, and the Washington post are
all pretty much in the same pocket.

It is possibly more than a coicidence, don't you think?
Melting Pot
(01/08/2004; 12:18:35 MDT - Msg ID: 114882)
U.S. oil inventories last week slid to their lowest levels since 1975
http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story_id=1022658&t=Business&c=31,1022658U.S. oil inventories last week slid to their lowest levels since 1975, the government said Wednesday in a report that suggests tight supplies in the energy sector will last at least through winter.
.
In another report, the government raised its estimates for household heating costs for the winter.
.
Supplies of crude oil, which is used to make heating oil, gasoline, diesel and other fuels, fell 0.6 percent in the week ended Jan. 2 to 269 million barrels, the Energy Department said. That was down 3.5 percent from a year ago and was the lowest level since September 1975.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/08/2004; 12:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114883)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

A nice recovery as the ECB and BOE leave rates unchanged making the U.S. a for place for foreign investment. Thus the US dollar weakened again and the precious metals gained. It will be a tough fight with Japanese foreign intervention and a bit of "talking down" the hard assets by the Wall Streeters who don't have a clue as to what they are talking about. Still, "portfolio insurance" is more important now than ever.

Jon H. Warner
Melting Pot
(01/08/2004; 12:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114884)
Japan to sell Treasuries for intervention - Nikkei
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/08/rtr1203446.htmlNEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Japan plans to sell several trillion yen worth of U.S. Treasuries as early as next week to make cash available for its massive dollar buying intervention, Nikkei's Nihon Keizai Shimbun Friday edition reported.

The reported sale of Treasuries appears to be a stop-gap measure for the Japanese Ministry of Finance to bolster its foreign exchange account until new legislation, due in late January, provides them with more cash for intervention.

The Nikkei report said the government would buy back the bonds later in such a manner that the central bank will not suffer any losses from the arrangement.

EOS.

Are we witnessing the destruction of the Dollar-Yen-Gold carry trade??? The Nippons must be very heavy on the wrong side of the trade!
Great Albino Bat
(01/08/2004; 13:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114885)
Alo, M. Belgian!, Comment ca va?....

M. Belgian, a great detective like your fictional compatriot M. Hercule Poirot, but devoted to the biggest mysteries, those regarding gold, oil, dollars and warfare on world scale -

What do you have to say about disarray within the EU, now that the "Stability Pact" has been jettisoned unilaterally by France and Germany, in the face of political imperatives?

I read in the F.T. where the French prime minister Jean Pierre Raffarin has said, with regard to EU rules regarding maximum deficits permitted (Portugal and Ireland were punished): "France is not a run-of-the-mill country." In other words, Portugal and Ireland are just run-of-the-mill countries! Tut-tut! Such arrogant behaviour.

There are supposed to be penalties for violating rules, but - who is going to enforce them on France and Germany?

Well, not to disparage the Euro, M. Belgian, but, here we have a rather severe test of a currency, which after all is just a paper currency. The gold policy in Europe is positive, perhaps. But things do not look good at all for the long term for the Euro, it seems to me.

The F.T. article seems to gloat over EU problems, too. It's the Brits, you know; that's how they are and have been for centuries - against anything really BIG in Europe.

Trouble for the Euro means - brighter prospects for gold, in the last analysis. The Europeans seem to be quite satisfied with the Euro, and gold is off their radar screens, completely. But, shocks are on the way and there will be a wakeup of the more intelligent, not far down the road.

Half-glad that $420 appears to hold. Would have liked to purchase more further down; perhaps unlikely?

The GAB

Kilo
(01/08/2004; 13:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114886)
Sir Steady...... Relatively speaking

I'm not sure I completely following your thinking on this one, but it seems you are trying to make it more complicated than it really is.

When one governments central bank prints (or creates) more of their own currency in order to buy the currency of another country, the entire dilution (inflation) situation is worsened by the fact that there is now TWICE as much currency in the pipeline. More is printed or created, lessening the value of the rest already in circulation.

The gold supression schemes have little to do with the creation of currency by one nation in order to "prop up" or support the currency of another. It's still a balancing act, and still very much relative when looking at the big picture. That newely created "money" is used to buy the "money" of the other nation they are attempting to support. Eventually though, so much "money" is in the pipeline, the financial markets and holdings throughout the world, that the "value" of everything adjusts accordingly, i.e. "higher prices". Whether that new addition to the money supply is "just created" out of thin air or not, it has the same effect in the long term.

Let's suppose for a moment that we are talking about Japan, and their creating billions or trillions of Yen to buy and help support the dollar. They are effectively destroying their own currency in favor of keeping the dollar "high". That does nothing to keep the Yen price of gold "low", but only to help keep the dollar price lower than what it might otherwise be. Whether the other central bank uses those "bought dollars" to turn around and buy gold is another matter, but it's all still a big balancing act in the long term, meaning it is all still "relative" from the currencies to gold to all forms of markets and goods.

mdgc
(01/08/2004; 14:16:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114887)
Kilo (01/08/04; 13:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114886)
The way the Japanese (and Chinese) keep their currencies down (ie support the dollar) is not by printing their own fresh paper. They do it by using the greenback they have accummulated through their trade surpluses to buy US T-bill and bonds. If they did not do so, the dollar would fall further to attract other buyers of US Treasury paper from elsewhere (like Europe).
Gold Standard
(01/08/2004; 14:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114888)
Drug money laundering in Gold
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0108GoldSmuggling08-ON.html
Looks like it's time to start painting the gold longs with the same brush as drug-runners!

Snip>
One of the largest gold refiners in the United States has agreed to plead guilty to participating in an illegal, $4.5 million money-laundering operation involving tainted gold from South America for at least four months, U.S. authorities said Thursday.

Court documents showed Metalor USA Refining Corp. of North Attleboro, Mass., a subsidiary of Swiss-based Metalor Group, agreed to a single charge of illegally engaging in financial transactions in excess of $10,000. It agreed to a fine of $9 million - twice the amount of the disputed transactions - plus the forfeiture of $423,000 in profits.


Could be an interesting development!

Cheers, GS
Socrates964
(01/08/2004; 14:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114889)
mdgc
Sir mdgc,

agree in general with your point about Japs/Chinese loaning trade surplus $$s back to the US Treasury, but surely the issue here is that this is no longer sufficient to stop the $ from sagging.

Hence the story about MOF doing bond repos with the BOJ. Granted, this is just an internal transfer of bonds between 2 bits of the Japanese government, but what is the MOF getting in return? Presumably the newly printed yen that it needs to buy dollars with.

Surely the BOJ is expanding domestic liquidity here in the vain hope that the dollar will levitate, allowing them to sell the dollars they bought at 106 back into the market for yen, which they then return to the BOJ and get their T-bonds back. Not a bet I'd take!

The thing I find baffling about this whole exercise is what the Japanese hope to achieve with it.


Paper Avalanche
(01/08/2004; 14:55:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114890)
@ Gold Standard
Interesting story.

Note that they did not take the gold that was used as the vehicle for the crime but assessed the corporation a fine payable in paper dollars (bank credit). That causes me to think that corporations can only deal in fiat / bills / notes (or other paper promises) and sovereign men should deal only in physical gold.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
CoBra(too)
(01/08/2004; 14:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 114891)
Socrates - Baffled?
... Postpone the inevitable, I guess!

Sorry for short reply - will try to find more time later...
cb2

PS: Re Trichet's ECB Q&A today - was a good show - especially his answer to a Q. about intervention levels allegedly mentioned by him at the Dubai G7 - "Not to my memory!" - Ha, level levels until the levels are levelling the playing field, eh, system!
Aristotle
(01/08/2004; 15:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114892)
Hold the phone, mdgc!
Let's think this through... I believe you've got a gap in your model of the process.

You said the J's and C's currencies are not kept low through fresh emission, but rather "They do it by using the greenback they have accummulated through their trade surpluses to buy US T-bill and bonds."

Alrighty then, first let's get to the root of who you are referring to when you say "They."

Do you mean the foreign Government?

Or do you mean the foreign Businesses?

Because, surely we'll agree, it is the Businesses, not the Governments, that are the ones EARNING/GETTING those dollars with their exporting activities that result in the Net Trade Surplus.

So are you suggesting ALL those U.S. bonds headed toward China and Japan are being acquired by the Businesses?

And yet, don't those same Businesses need to convert a lot of their dollar earnings into Yen or Yuan/renminbi in order to pay their employee wages and their local operating expenses?

That's where we may ultimately see the dollars hit the foreign exchange windows, flowing to the money center banks and to the national central bank where the decision is made to issue new local currency against the acceptance of these new dollars as reserve assets (as oposed to the alternative of selling these dollars abroad to obtain (at higher prices) the Yen/Yuan being sought by the Exporters.)

They'll only support this one-way system of wealth transfer (to the U.S.) for so long -- until economic structural changes (and social fabric) have evolved/strengthened to the point where workers get beyond eking out a survival existence and begin enjoying the fruits of their own labors. Why should they use dollars for a mattress when an actual MATTRESS makes a better mattress? See what I mean? Improvements to real wealth savings (and standard of living) requires them to seek real products -- including their own -- rather than U.S. dollar savings.

Get it? Got it? Good!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Great Albino Bat
(01/08/2004; 15:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114893)
The GAB feels a Haiku coming on...

"Down the centuries...
Paper for democracies;
Gold for Charlemagne!"

The GAB
TownCrier
(01/08/2004; 15:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 114894)
ATTN new poster 'Lisa'
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.htmlI have processed your request for a posting handle and sent to you your new posting password, but the email bounced back as undeliverable.

You might want to contact me directly to verify your email address, or else resubmit the Forum registration form (at url above).

Randy
sitemaster@usagold.com
21mabry
(01/08/2004; 15:41:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114895)
MAX RABBITZ
Max, my undergrad work cost me 3700 a semester not counting books,which the school charges far above fair price for.My graduate work costs double my undergrad work.I did not need to get any loans these last 3 semesters I have been lucky,but I did get loans for most of my undergrad work and they will be a burden.I did not like taking them out but my family is not rich and even working fulltime while going to school I could not afford tuition without them.Maybe my pm investments will pay them off for me.21 P.S I attend a state school no way could I afford a private school
steady
(01/08/2004; 15:53:23 MDT - Msg ID: 114896)
i dun been learnt today
kilo, burp... excuse me i need to digest that food for thought. thanks.!
Socrates964
(01/08/2004; 16:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114897)
Ari/MDGC
Ari - I think Doug Nolan made the same good point in November, as part of an argument that Japanese/Chinese trade surpluses were recycled directly into the long end of the US yield curve, bypassing the monetary aggregates (for which reason, the latter were no longer a reliable guide to overall credit creation).

I just wonder about 2 things:

-Would the Chinese play fast and loose by dumping their dollars in the market, knowing that the terribly obliging BOJ was out there as dollar buyer of the last resort.

-There's that theorem in economics whose name I've forgotten about only being able to maximize 2 of 3 variables.

The BOJ is already printing yen on demand from exporters and recycling the national trade surplus into longer-dated US paper. Presumably the demand for yen from the MOF to mop up $$ and support $/Y requires even more yen issuance, but once the MOF sells the Y for $ in the market, can it then use its acquired $ to buy more US debt or is it likely that when it sells its newly acquired dollars to buy bonds, the dollars leak straight back into the FX market and trigger another round of intervention?

As such, until the US raises rates and actually inspires foreign investors to hold shorter-term US paper (which probably isn't going to happen this year), I wonder if the MOF doesn't get stuck with cash dollars and this actually starts to constrain their/the BOJ's ability to buy longer-dated US debt.

In other words, Japanese efforts to stabilize the US exchange rate may actually raise the likelihood of a sell-off in US bonds.

Any thoughts?
Kilo
(01/08/2004; 16:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114898)
mdgc (01/08/04; 14:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114887)
But "how" do those foreign governments obtain those dollars in the first place ? Trade defecits and surpluses are not ran up by governments, but by the collective businesses who actually make up "the markets". Governments themselves don't "produce" anything except more and more expenses and debt. These businesses, more often than not, need their own currencies rather than the dollars they are receiving in payments (unless they are returning those same dollars back to the U.S. in more trade), so in order for these businesses to do so, they have to "trade" dollars to their own government for their own currencies, i.e. their governments have to print (or produce electronically) the local currency needed to make the equal trades for local currencies possible.

As much as we like to think so at times, it's not all about the dollar.

Pizz
(01/08/2004; 17:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 114899)
If you're going to expose your hole card. . .
you might want to consider whether it's good enough to make the opponent turn and run.

Or in other words, it just may have been that the announcement of Japan's massive budget for dollar intervention, that IMHO was publicized for the sole purpose of running in a few shorts and to rally the dollar, backfired just a bit.

Maybe just a few dollar sellers now know they can unload billions without cascading the price down. . .

Nice controlled crash we have going here, gettin a sore neck trying to keep up with the gyrations. What are half and three quarter cent moves on a 5 minute tickchart worth anyway? Trader's dream if your 'in the groove" or have inside info. Can't imagine playing the currency market with 7 figure gyrations . . .have to be a pure psycopath for that. . .gee boss, got a cup of java and missed my trade for 10 billion. . . .

Pizz
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 18:03:12 MDT - Msg ID: 114900)
Metalor case
@ GS, PA

It looks like US Customs didn't take the gold because it was exported. The South American cops probably took it or took a bribe to let it pass into more powerful hands. Imagine if Ken Lay or Skillings have to pay double their skim? Let's see - $15B x2 = a whole lot of semollians.

Shampoo bottles? Geez . . . these 8 oz bottles feel like 10 lbs. I wonder what's up with that? "A pint's a pound . . . er 10 . . . the world around." Did the jack-onomists at the FED help them with their logistics and planning?

Send a camera team from "America's Dumbest Criminals".
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 18:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 114901)
Hole card
@ Pizz

Been watching the World Poker Championships on the tube from Vegas. Showing the hole cards early is a tactic used by a weaker opponent to close the betting early and rake a small quick pot to help even the stakes. They "called" early on to chase out weak players and lock potentially strong hands from futher commitment of funds. Then prayed that the "flop" didn't improve the opponents hand.

If BOJ is playing these tactics, they are truly desperate to stay in the game!

(:^) Goldilox
Golden Era
(01/08/2004; 18:45:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114902)
About Greenspan
I suspect that Greenspan's hidden agenda is to intentionally create an environment that will "force" a situation for the US dollar to be pecked to Gold and other PM. A man of his stature is not known to be careless in speech as some may suggest and we all know how he feels about Gold. This has always been his "dream" but he cannot be upfront about what he is doing for political reasons until such time when he feels the world has reached that crossroad.

A ridiculous hunch?

Paper Avalanche
(01/08/2004; 20:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114903)
@ Goldilox
Regarding the poker game, have you seen Chris Moneymaker in the game?

Sorry to be off topic Randy.

PA
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 20:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 114904)
poker
PA-

I don't think so.
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 20:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114905)
Health Care Costs rising
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=4095317snippit:

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. health care spending rose to $1.6 trillion in 2002, fueled by higher hospital and prescription drug costs, according to an annual government survey released on Thursday.

Americans' spending on their health is rising more than twice as fast as the economy overall, according to the report by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. And consumers, businesses and the government can ill-afford it, the CMS said.

Healthcare spending shot up 9.3 percent in 2002, more than double the growth rate of the gross domestic product or GDP, the sum of all output in the United States.

But as the effects of the recession of past years kick in and as employers start paying less and less of workers' health care bills, this growth will start to flag, the CMS economists predicted.

"We've had two successive years of rather dramatic increases in the share of GDP going to health care," said Katharine Levit, who helped write the report published in the journal Health Affairs.

"This continued acceleration increases pressure into the health care system and everyone -- from businesses to government to consumers -- is affected," she said.

Hospital spending was the biggest part of the growth pie, and its increases were in proportion to hospitals' overall share of the health care budget. But prescription spending grew 15.3 percent in 2002, out of proportion to its 10 percent share of overall health care spending, Levit said.

"Much of this growth is coming from the cost of prescription drugs and also the cost of insurance," Levit told a news conference. "It's growing much faster than other components of the health care sector."

Goldilox:

It's no wonder the government wants to privatize all medical care in the long run, as it's one of the most rapidly inflating of non-CPI costs.
Great Albino Bat
(01/08/2004; 20:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114906)
Dark thoughts....
I hold these facts to be facts:

That all men are NOT created equal.

That they are NOT endowed by their Creator with any rights.

That the Creator does NOT endow men with any right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

That governments are NOT instituted among men, to secure these rights.

*******************

All men are not created equal. Some are a) slaves by nature b) some are enslaved against their will and c) some men are free by nature. These are a small minority of mankind.

Slaves by nature: most human beings; they want someone to tell them what to think, what to do, how to amuse themselves. They are satisfied with little: food, a shack, plenty of drink, free sex and games to entertain them; if not present at games, T.V. will do very well.

Enslaved against their will: eventually, some of these can find their freedom either in their thoughts or, by their intelligence they can gain it from their masters.

Free by nature: a very small percentage of mankind who can think for themselves, who can select what they want to do and what they want to achieve without anyone telling them, and who can discipline their passions � especially sex � and attain to self-control.

Men have no rights by simply being born. Only the free men by nature can obtain rights at the cost of their blood if necessary. There is no other way to obtain rights but by fighting for them at risk of life and limb.

Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are prizes for free men willing to fight to the death for them. No other price will suffice to gain them.

Governments are instituted among men, in today's world, to keep the slaves and the enslaved, in their place. And to enslave as many as possible amongst the otherwise free.

The mass of mankind have always been either slaves or enslaved men. In our time, this eternal situation is being reestablished. Democracy is merely theatrics to distract the slaves from what is really going on.

In other ages, the ruler was King, or Monarch, and his rule was thought to be divinely determined. This is the rule of one.

The aristocracy, rule of the best, became simply rule of the privileged and these were swept away two hundred years ago, amid the degeneracy of the aristocracy.

In place of the aristocracy, we have seen oligarchy, rule of the few. But these few were supplanted by:

Democracy, rule of the many. This is supposed to exist today, but it is actually PLUTOCRACY, rule of the rich.

Most of today's plutocracy have forgotten that real wealth is possession of gold. They are really SLAVES who think they are rich, nothing more.

The collapse of their stupidity � slaves are stupid � their thinking that paper numbers are wealth, will cull their numbers dramatically, when paper burns.

The remaining more cunning of the plutocracy will eventually fight amongst themselves, for the rich are intensely jealous of anyone with more than they have, and this fighting will finally narrow down to a handful of plutocratic rulers of the world.

Their lord, unlike the Lord of the Christian Kings, will not be God, but Satan; since they will deny any superior power (such is modern "thought") they must come under the influence of the inferior power, Satan.

To this blind alley has humanity come, since installing the God of Reason in the French Revolution.

I can see no further.

You wish to attempt to be a free man? Start by owning gold, which makes you independent, to a degree.

The GAB




steady
(01/08/2004; 21:15:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114907)
WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <:+)/`````~~
those who have acted profligately, face a renewal of habits and thoughts in order to comprehend and cope not only with whats up now but with whats coming down the pipe.
Bulldog
(01/08/2004; 21:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114908)
Golden Era
If the $ gets pegged to gold, then given the amount of $,
gold will be valued in 5 figures. I myself am waiting for gold to be its own standard, beyond merely fiat. I do expect the physical supplies to dry up sooner than later. When they say, gold get you some, it is the best advice to follow. If we live long enough, this "wealth" will come.
If I get rid of any of my gold, it will not be for fiat, but to acquire assets.
Waverider
(01/08/2004; 21:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 114909)
NYMEX raises electricity, silver, copper margins
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4096803≠wsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets"The New York Mercantile Exchange said Thursday that it will increase the margins on its PJM monthly electricity futures contract and its COMEX Division silver and copper futures effective at Friday's close...Margins on the silver futures contract will increase to $1,500 from $1,000 for clearing members, to $1,650 from $1,100 for members, and to $2,025 from $1,350 for customers."

Waverider: It's interesting that they didn't raise margins on Gold.
Dollar Bill
(01/08/2004; 21:48:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114910)
*>*
"For monetary policy in the US, low money growth presents an even greater opportunity to stay easy. In the first stock market bubble back in 2000, the Fed's justification to run an easy monetary policy was productivity and the "New Economy". During and after the recession, the Fed's justification for super easy monetary policy was the "Fear of Deflation.
Now, the low money growth in M1, M2 and M3, present another opportunity to keep monetary policy easy. If the Fed picks up on the low money growth - which is actually caused by people fleeing the dollar - as an excuse to really gear up the Fed printing press, people may flee the dollar even faster! In the short run, the Fed can point to low domestic money growth and sell us the idea that inflation can't pick up because money growth is low. In reality, money growth will be extraordinarily high. In addition, the US easy money policy encourages Asia and the rest of the World to reflate to counter the "phony rise" in their currencies, and competitive devaluation becomes the new game in the world currency markets."

Sir GAB, Even the guy with self control and with most ducks in a row, finds that that biggest game of all, the one of well, let me put this not in my usual ways.
You try to be a certain way, and find we cannot stay that way. We are unable to fix to a standard we decide on.
Because we are under the game rules that keep us challenged to realign ourselves with the best character we can have.
Challenged how? We cannot keep impurities away, troubles away, personal flaws away, no matter what we try, we are in an evironment where we will always be beset with challenges. The best approach is to recognise the coach of the heart, and ask fer help. My request? That things of the heart work out.
I may look like the dummy in a hundred ways, surrounded by troubles, but the judgement of how I lived will be graded most likely by my very own heart. And its freedom can be there in any circumstance. Even if it looks like slavery.
But its freedom take almost constant effort it seems.
Operative
(01/08/2004; 21:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114911)
@ GAB
Seeing, as through a dark glass, you have pointed some paths to the true light.
Gandalf the White
(01/08/2004; 22:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114912)
Everyone has heard of "Streaming Charts" ---- YES ?
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10WELL --- please take a look at this "SCREAMING Chart" !!!!
The US$ Index chart of TODAY !
Look fast or it will be gone -- It "Streams" too.
Proof that Gold is going only in the NORTH direction for a while!
<;-)
Aristotle
(01/08/2004; 22:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 114913)
Waverider: "It's interesting that they didn't raise margins on Gold."
Well, you see, they already played that solo act about a year ago; February 6th comes to mind, give or take a day.

So why not do it again along with these others? Maybe the volitility seems well enough in hand. But also maybe the subtle vibe in the game is now to channel people not away but into INTO the paper, I say again, the *PAPER* Gold market. As if you can't keep their interests away from the Yellow, you can at least direct it into a more managable medium -- boundless paper contracts.

I don't know when the end game will recognizably arrive, but I'm sure it'll bear this sorta resemblance. A ballroom where everyone is encouraged to dance with paper dolls.

Gold metal, I say again, *METAL*. Get you some. --- Ari
Golden Era
(01/08/2004; 22:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114914)
Bulldog
I used the wrong word. What I meant was that the US$ is "backed" by Gold and PM, and not "pegged". So effectively the NEW US$ is worth the value in physical PM. Physical gold itself is not a practical form of transaction so some form of paper currencies will still be required.

Yes, gold may need to be in the thousands of dollars based on existing US$. The other PM will also rise in value to create a new US$ currency.

Is this a plausible outcome to avoid a possible world-wide economic disaster?



Waverider
(01/08/2004; 22:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114915)
Rising yen may stall Japan's recovery
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,104645,00.html"SIGNS of rising alarm are appearing among Japanese exporters as the yen continues to approach what a major business lobby group says is the critical defence line of 105 to the US dollar, beyond which Japan's export-led recovery could stall. Renewed intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has failed to prevent the yen climbing to around 106 and some analysts believe that the dollar's continuing fall could overwhelm Japan's massive efforts to 'buy' recovery.

Even more worrying, say some economists, is what is implied by the fact that the price of gold surged this week to its highest level since 1988, when it pushed above US$430 an ounce. While this may reflect concern about general commodity inflation - with the price of oil hitting US$34 barrel and metal prices surging - it could also signal that a major 'disorderly' correction of the dollar is in view, they say. Some, such as Hong Kong-based Christopher Wood, who publishes the Greed and Fear newsletter, have suggested that gold price could top US$3,000 an ounce eventually, in line with a continuing decline in the dollar. But even with a less savage decline of the dollar, the ability of the heavily-indebted US to continue for long as the chief growth locomotive for Asia and the rest of world is becoming uncertain."

Waverider: Yes - the alarm bells are sounding in Japan!
Liberty Head
(01/08/2004; 22:44:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114916)
RE: Goldilox - Health Care Costs rising

Goldilox,

Prices for healthcare are rising mainly due to extremely heavy government regulation of the industry. The cost of compliance is what you see, but the industry takes the hit for being the bad guy, not the government. It is typical government jive. The sheep then clamor for more government involvement and the spiral continues.
The government does not want to privatize medical care, they want to privatize Medicare. This gives them another layer to the fall guy cushion.
Healthcare used to be an attractive career field, but there is very little new blood, while many more retire early or move on.
The government controls the cost of healthcare simply by denial of care. If you think it is HMO's that are the problem, guess who created the HMO system?

The best medical insurance there is, is to take care of yourself. This would include owning some value insurance as well, the golden kind.

Best Wishes
steady
(01/08/2004; 23:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114917)
gold/ silver....... what else is there ?
68.26 and climbing!
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 23:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114918)
Healthcare costs
@LH

Government serves the insurance companies (the "banks" of the healthcare system well. Not only do the insurance companies bilk the public and raise rates drastically every time they lose a bundle in some stupid, incredibly risky investment (like Brazil), but they bilk the providers for incredible costs for things like mal-pactice insurance. The government "of the lawyers, for the lawyers, by the lawyers" refuses to pass reasonable tort reform, so one scummy lawyer can cry a jury into awarding multi-millions for a burgler injured by a guard dog and other such nonsense.

We really are becoming a "service economy", but in generations past they called such "self-serve" practices larceny.

It's just another nail in the coffin of the once mighty US economy.

Better get gold - faith in US goobermint, banks, and insurance companies is nigh unto revealing its true worth.
steady
(01/08/2004; 23:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 114919)
hahaha i just got it.
whoever posted zuma zoom hahahah ! I couldnt see your eys.....
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 23:26:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114920)
Metal Value of Coinage
Not long ago, we had a short discussion on the value of coinage and some of the coin recycling being done by China, in particular. Here's a short rant from a neighboring castle that I found interesting - link omitted in resepct for our host.

As we have reviled the great frauds of FDR and RMN, let us not forget the continued devaluation efforts of LBJ, who turned Kennedy halves into slugs within 18 months of their release. . . not to mention his huge Viet-Nam war deficits.


snippit:

"What's the Euro got that we ain't got?


For starters, credibility. Which is amazing in and of itself, insofar as the Euro is minted with the same crummy non-precious metals as the USD.

In coin denominations, the Euro comes out like this: pennies, tuppences and nickels are struck (cast?) in steel with a copper alloy. Dimes, quarters (actually 20-cent pieces) and halves are steel with a copper-zinc coating. The dollars are made of copper, nickel and brass.

Duct-tape a few Euro coins to the propeller shaft or rudder of your boat and they will provide real value as an excellent protection from electrolysis. Otherwise they are as lacking in intrinsic value as their American cousins. They are slugs.

American coins, by the way, are fabricated as follows: pennies, copper-plated zinc, with copper comprising 2.5 percent of the value by weight; nickels, dimes, quarters and halves, 8.33 percent nickel and 91.67 percent copper. Compare these metallic culls with the venerable Morgan silver dollar, which was 10 percent copper and 90 percent silver and weighed in at a little over three quarters of an ounce.

The halves, quarters and dimes of the pre-Lyndon Baines Johnson era were of the same composition as the Morgan: 90 percent silver and 10 percent copper. LBJ and the Congress abdicated their Constitutional duty to keep the money clean and capitulated totally to the privately-held Federal Reserve Bank in 1965 by debasing the coinage and calling back the United States Notes that John F. Kennedy had ordered issued just prior to his assassination. In fact, the callback of this last non-Fed USD was LBJ's first executive order.

...The only coin in the realm that's even remotely worth its stated value is the U.S. penny. A hundred copper-plated zinc pennies produced by the U.S. Mint last year actually contained about 80 cents worth of metal - probably more now, given that copper, lead and zinc are all up 50 percent over last summer's commodity prices."
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 23:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114921)
New Silver Margins
@ Ari, LW, Rich

Might the change in silver margins and NOT gold margins be a sign of tighter liquidity in Ag? Maybe some of the shortages that have defied market interest so far are being felt?
Operative
(01/08/2004; 23:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114922)
Increase of Margins
ANOTHER sign of things/events to come. First, increase the margins on the paper, then at a time yet to come, will begin the increase of margin/premium of the physical. People who have learned of the facts will begin to scurry about for the physical only to find, none available, or available at prices far beyond reach.
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 23:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114923)
BOJ
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10@ Gandalf

Is this the BOJ doing their morning calisthentics?

"We must . . . we must . . . we must develop the bu$t!"

I know - it's tacky!!!
slingshot
(01/08/2004; 23:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114924)
Paint Me A Picture
What parameters would cause gold to "Limit Up"? We have experienced the six dollar,ten dollar spikes. If I remember correctly, the limit up is $75.00.Except for the use of WMD's are there any indicators or precursers that would signal a large spike?
As gold assends faster than previous years and the warnings of the IMF, I thought it would be prudent to have an idea of the triggers that would percipitate such an event.
Slingshot----------------<>
Goldilox
(01/08/2004; 23:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114925)
Limit UP
@ Slingshot

Limit up precursor the day Sir AG gives a public speech wearing a golden colored tie!!!
Aristotle
(01/08/2004; 23:57:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114926)
Goldilox -- silver margins
A sign of tighter liquidity in Ag??

Tigher how? In the futures market or the physical? In either case how would higher margins provide beneficial relief?

Seems to me higher margins would curb liquidity in the futures market by lessening its accessibility to Little Joe. And as far as the availability of silver to meet physical demand, how many of these Little Joe gamblers are taking delivery on their contracts? None. Or rather, not enough to matter a tinker's dam.

So where are we now? I'm sorry, I guess I don't quite follow what you're driving at.

When in doubt...

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Waverider
(01/08/2004; 23:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 114927)
Bank of Russia puts new gold and silver coins in circulation
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=286383&PageNum=0"The Bank of Russia on Thursday put gold and silver memorable coins in circulation. The coins belong to the "Signs of the Zodiac" series and have the Aquarius sign depicted on their facial side. The golden coin has a value of 50 roubles while the silver coin has a value of three roubles, a source at the Bank of Russia's Foreign and Public Relations Department told Itar-Tass.

The Bank of Russia will issue up to 30,000 coins of each type. The Central Bank officials say that these coins can be used as payment means any time with no restriction."
Operative
(01/08/2004; 23:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114928)
@ Goldilox
Your link to the dollar chart reminds me of a losing fighter (the dollar) who after laying on the mat decides to get back up. The next knock down ought to be a major one. I cannot help but wonder if this fight would have been over much earlier had the dollar not been on steriods supplied by Japan.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 00:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114929)
Silver liquidity
@ Ari

That's why I asked (there were lots of ????? in that post). "Average Joe" probably has only an Ameritrade account, so I didn't really envision "Joe" working the Comex at all. If anyone is taking delivery, I thought it might be pressuring the exchange to dust off the storage bins. Not as relief, but more a requirement of insurance against larger daily moves. I have no evidence, it was just a question.

I have no experience in the commodities markets. I am thrilled when someone actually answers one of my questions. They're often passed by.
Liberty Head
(01/09/2004; 00:19:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114930)
Ferrari's, BMW's and Mercedes in China?
http://f1.racing-live.com/en/index.htmlSnippit
Formula one boss, Bernie Ecclestone-"We will have to cancel some of the European races sooner or later. Our sponsors want us in growing markets � and Europe isn't a growing market. As I see it, Europe will be part of the third world in 10 years, while Asia and America will be dominating the world. We must be established there."
The F1 circus will already be stopping at two new venues this year, Bahrain and China.
_________________
Liberty Head

If you want to follow in the the footsteps of the giants, Bernie knows the giants personally. They are all neighbors, having Yachts of fun in Monaco, while wearing velour suits. ;-)

Best Wishes
Gold Standard
(01/09/2004; 00:24:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114931)
The Japanese and the Yen-Dollar support

I am not an expert in anything. However, as a keen observer, my rationale for the BOJ-US dollar intervention is as follows. It is a simplistic viewpoint, and liable to be refuted by far greater minds than mine at this Table!

The Japanese, as a nation, are "makers". (No Dune jokes, please!). They "make" things. They import raw materials because they do not have any sufficient supplies of their own, and process those raw materials. The things they "make", the US (and the rest of the world) wants to buy.

In the 1950's and 1960's, the "Made in Japan" stamp was cause for derision, much the same way as a "Made in Cuba" stamp would be laughed at today.

Indeed, it may be urban legend (or it may be true - I'm far to lazy to research into these things), that one of the northern islands called Usa had an enormous assembly industry, so that the coveted "Made in USA" stamp could be applied to goods. But, I digress....

During the 1970's, these guys really got their arses into gear. The stuff they "made" became better, and better, to become the world's best in the 1980's.

Suddenly, that laughable "Made in Japan" stamp became an icon of quality. They started outsourcing manufacturing processes for "cheap" stuff to developing nations, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and ultimately to the arch-enemy, China.

It's all the economics of manufacture, you see. A manufacturing corporation will go broke paying assembly workers Japanese standard wages, so they simply out-sourced (does this sound familiar?) the labour component of manufacture of "cheap" items.

When is the last time you bought a "Japanese" consumer item (a camera, a DVD player, a lap-top, etc. etc.) from a well-known "Japanese" name, that had a "Made in Japan" stamp on the back. Hmmmm, I thought so.

Japan NEEDS to export manufactured goods, and the only goods they manufacture in Japan (now, "world's best" quality) are big-ticket items - cars, plasma TV, air-con, and similar things. The "little" things that built the Japanese manufacturing behemoth have all been out-sourced.

Japan hates and fears China. Whilst our Western ancestors were living in caves and trying (usually unsuccessfully) to smash two rocks together to get a spark, the Japanese and Chinese waged sophisticated war, and during times of relative peace engaged in complex commercial arrangements.

Today, the Japanese fear China. Why? - Simply because the "Made in China" stamp is rapidly gaining the acceptance, perhaps even the iconic cachet, that the "Made in Japan" stamp has enjoyed for the past 25 years.

The Japanese, being "makers", NEED to sell their product. The biggest consumer market (at the moment) is the good old USA. If the USA consumer market fails, so too does the remaining Japanese manufacturing market for big-ticket items.

The Japanese fear China. China is doing what Japan did 30 years ago. However, there is a difference:

(1) Labour costs are significantly less in China, and they will not need to out-source to maintain profitability.

(2) China does not need to import a proportionally equivalent amount of raw materials, being blessed with an abundance of natural resources that have not been exploited so far. Whilst their own resources are underdeveloped, the Chinese are net importers, but this is guaranteed to change in the near-term future.

The Japanese can see China become the "makers" of the 21st century, leaving the Japanese manufacturing industry out in the cold, and the Japanese economy laid to waste. The Yuan peg to the USD ensures a lock-step competitive devaluation of the Chinese currency as against the Yen, and the only means available to the BOJ at present to likewise devalue its currency (i.e. to ensure that the cost of its exported big-ticket items does not go through the roof) is to buy US dollars and Treasuries.

Only history will tell us whether this has been a successful or a suicidal ploy.

Cheers! GS



Belgian
(01/09/2004; 00:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114932)
@ GAB : Good Morning, Sir
I just had a sleepless and exiting (fascinating) night with a Belgian study (University of Leuven-analysis) of the ECB actors and their background : Wim Duisenberg (NL), J.C. Trichet (Fr), Otmar Issing (Ge), Lucas Papademos (Gr).

Four different euro-Central Bankers with a "cause". Two big nations on the "old" European continent, with a long "history" and a brand new future in sight.

*If*, "Germany" AND "France" keep evolving as they do at present,... Euroland is going to make it happen. The euro-alternative for the existing dollar-world.

A Euroland, going "strong" because of its complementary diversity ! The highly probable and desirable Germany/France-mix is a very powerfull combination. Watch how Trichet and what he stands for, is going to maneuver in concert with complementary, aligning forces !

No, nothing can be taken for granted, yet. Euroland is still climbing the huge wall of worries. And Big failures aren't to be excluded, at all. But since I start realizing what we already have been through... I'm getting more, realistically optimist, by the day.

In the past 100 years, central banking has been responsible (driving, decisive force) for shocking events. Dramatic changes. There is much more to come from the might (and manipulation + intrige) *behind* the euro !!!.

Gold...the reserve-asset evolving into the wealth-asset, will turn out to be the Big Surprise at the "appropiate" moment !!! Not one single second earlier.
Repeat...Gold as the central bankers reserve asset, next to the dollar, will (have to) evolve into the general wealth asset, by and through the euro-central-bankers. That's exactly "why", these central bankers say so very little about the precious.
The �-$ exchange rate target of 1,30-1,40 is only phase "one" in the Trichet maneuvering. The dollar will never give up its increasing efforts to divide the young, maturing EU and its ECB policies and tasks. Different people have different ideas about a CB's tasks (duties).
Trichet has that everlasting sense of French "grandeur" and wishes to include pragmatic Germany (entirely) in his C-Banking strategies. A strong and stable euro, serving EU stable growth and an expanding euro as an attracting dollar-alternative.

No change in IRs means No accomodation for the dollar without hurting the EU economy. C-Bankers are supposed to have statistical information that is not available to the observing public. That's why the decodation of the C-Bankers' interpretations are sometimes difficult, misunderstood (misintrepreted) by the observers and financial actors in the markets, running with the ball and missing the game.

The weak/strong-dollar debate and action, will go on for a while. In the mean time the euro keeps putting its own house in order, again and again, whilst we await the Golden times. Watch the game AND don't miss the Golden ball.
Have a nice day. B. @ GAB.







Mr Gresham
(01/09/2004; 00:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 114933)
Goldilox
Your questions might go unanswered -- lots is unresponded to here because of the sheer time it takes to read and think about all that is posted.

But I enjoy your posts for the information you discover for us, and the sharp comments and viewpoints you share with us. Your professional background is visible in a lot of it, and your curiosity to learn more marks you as a valuable contributor who gets my attention every time you have something to say.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 01:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114936)
Background
Thanks for the kind words Mr. G-

As to my professional background, I was a computer engineer (with no formal education) and worked my way from wiring wafer fab test jigs (for $2.75/hr) in 1972 to speaking at Analyst Conferences after 9-11-01 on techniques and technologies for data disaster recovery. Yep, I was part of the "Internet revolution". But then, I was part of the digital watch revolution, the digital automobile revolution, and the PC and storage revolutions, as well. I built a career around embracing the latest and greatest in technology, having grown up in Silicon Valley.

I only got involved in investing and finance when my industry blew up in 2002, leaving me to manage my own financial affairs as an unemployed but not completely assetless computer engineer. It has been a refreshing change; sometime scary - sometime exhilarating. Sometimes things happen in life that seem catastrophic which upon later examination are revealed to be genuine gifts. Now it seems my new-found responsibilities to manage financial affairs by my own efforts is blossoming into a wealth of knowledge, some from this forum and some by the trial and error of online investing.

Had I remained employed through this tech debaucle, I would probably watch my assets get trashed again in Bear Phase II with no recourse in my financial toolbox. Instead I have committed a substantial % to the golden path, paper and physical, which, along with my remaining tech assets has beaten all the averages this year.

The hacks on the radio that say they can get me 25-30% are hilarious. That barely covers the dollar devaluation. My last boss was a tech analyst/consultant who took his pay in charter stocks and got out in 2000 with >$100M. I once heard him tell a money manager that "anything less than 50% annual gain was rolling dice instead of researching." I understand that today.

Finally, I love to comment on the bad joke that the marriage of politics and finance has bred into our "Great Society", but I love even more the education I get from the diverse realm of posters. This is fun, but my future really does depend on it.



slingshot
(01/09/2004; 01:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 114938)
Gold Standard
Sometimes fame is not what you expect it to be.
But, I'll take it. ;0)
Slingshot----------<>
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 01:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114939)
London open
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOIt looks like Gordon Brown tried to play Japanese at the open, but ran out of cash in a jiffy!
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 02:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 114944)
Signing "OFF"
My talking computer just interrupted Dan Hicks and his Hot Licks to tell me "It's one o'clock." The cat's scratching teh door to get out again, so I better catch him and get us some shut-eye.

Gold is rising slowly in Europe, so maybe for once this week we won't run out of steam as soon as Wall St opens for business. I'm hoping PA is right and we have a barn burner in the AM.
Belgian
(01/09/2004; 02:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 114945)
@L.H. @ G.S.
Liberty Head : Last time, I passed through Monaco, I didn't noticed many Flinstone characters hanging around as the pr�lude to a Euroland, becoming part of the third world within the next decade. In Francorchamps ( F1-Belgium) we know who Mr.Ecclestone is and are therefore not too impressed (depressed) by his rather funny statement. Smile, Sir and let us add some salt.

Gold Standard : Nice analysis of the Japan/China story (history-future). One or several entities can be strong,... even very strong,... in one or many ways...for brief or longer periods. But this planet needs, urgently, Another International Monetary order as to consolidate all those different *strengths* in their right, harmonic proportions.
There is less and less "considerable" time...especially if financial/monetary things keep on evolving as they do, today.

Everything you produce and the "worth" of your capacity to produce, must ultimately be "VALUED" in something tangible, universal and lasting !!!
The dollar lost that priviledge some decades ago and Gold isn't yet allowed to take over that specific role.

Japan got military protection from the US (since WWII) in exchange for its (Japan) formidable capacity to produce/manufacture. The US has derived its military might from the planet's (ending) support of the dollar-system. It seems to me that this old story is running its last chapter. More dollars and bombs are not an everlasting coctail for harmonious evolution. On the contrary, I should say. More dollars and bombs are needed to hide the decaying worth/practicality of the dollar system.

The dollar IR (1%) wants the euro IR (2%= double) to come down...NOT SO FOR ECONOMICAL REASONS... but for monetary favoritism !!! That's why the C-Banker personalities have become so publicly (over)important !!! China (and the ME-Russia) will/are watching this dollar-euro game with much more attention than ever before. Global Monetary turmoil is here to stay and will gradually increase. Trichet is definitely going to be a new wind through the landscape. The outcome is unknown and unpredictable.
Great Albino Bat
(01/09/2004; 04:05:56 MDT - Msg ID: 114946)
"Whom the gods will destroy, they first make mad...."

Those are words from Greek tragedy, 2,400 years ago.

I can't help but think of those words, reading that Pres. Bush plans to build a permanent space station on the Moon, and send an expedition to Mars.

Good Lord! As if the current financial situation of the US was not desperate enough, more spending will be added to the present overload of deficit.

Mr. Bush appears to be clueless. He seems utterly out of touch with reality. Look at him in the news and he seems to exude confidence, he is quite merry and smiling.

Worrisome!

Big investors are surely taking note and day by day, the decision to GET OUT OF DOLLARS becomes totally unavoidable.

The neocon warhawks are openly pressuring Mr. Bush for MORE WAR! As if Iraq and Afghanistan were not enough, now they are calling for war on Syria; they deplore the slight improvement in relations with Iran (earthquake assistance) and the want a total blockade of North Korea, with preparations to take out the nuclear installation there with a first strike.

More madness! The dollar is toast! Gold is the only solid alternative left. Buy some more today from CPM.

The GAB
steady
(01/09/2004; 04:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114947)
dollar
toast with jelly!
steady
(01/09/2004; 04:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 114948)
noise
behind every seed of adversity is another seed of equal or greater effect!
Gold Standard
(01/09/2004; 04:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114949)
@steady

Interesting. I was booked just the other day for expeeding the seed limit.

Cheers! GS
Belgian
(01/09/2004; 04:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114950)
@ Ari
The end game, ...visibly recognizable, you ask .
When the dollar-music stops playing the reserve-tune. When the dollar-reserves in the planet's CBs have become quasi worthless. When the growing new forces of real goods and services do accumulate, further growing "excesses" of reserve-dollars (Trillions) wich can't buy the right amounts of the right goods and services. Mountainchains of dollars in reserve for proportionate tiny hills of goods/services. Rising monetary expansion and declining rotation velocity of these confetti stashes (digits). Central Bank matters, Ari... pure CB stuff, Sir ! IMVHO, of course.

Can and/or will the dollar, in extremis, stop/decline the ongoing, further dollar (debt) expansion !? And "what" will be the net result on the global economy ? Is this predictable or not ? When does one changes its paper doll for a metallic one ? Wich girl on the ball, was, post factum, the right one to marry ...? Ohhhhhgggghhhpfffssttt.

Central Bankers are watching stocks going UP ! Are they ALL happy with the remaining "irrational" and "exhuberant" OVER_VALUATIONS ? And what about that crude oily sticky liquid, relentlessly, going UP (inflating) in dollar-price ?
C-Bankers all over the place are watching these things, aren't they Sir ? What can/will the CBers do as to bring down $ and � IRs to a level playing field and how stubborn will that exotic renmimbi/yuan, versus the planetary dollar-reserve, remain ? Will the (nationalistic) Japanese, stick to their old/aging dollar-contracts,...for ever and ever and watch the China dragon spitting fire ?

I am surprised how fast and early, (forex and other) analysts show a form of angst (strong doubts) in their assesment of the dollar (exch. rate)...price ?...value ?...use ?...
Is it because it is specifically about the "new" euro-currency, that some sort of dollar panic is exposed ???
Is this bizar attitude (Snow & Co) a sign for loss in the dollar self confidence ? Is there a breaking point ? Or are the "movers" in the market, overdoing things, just for gambling fun ?
What's your guess, Ari ?
Gold Standard
(01/09/2004; 05:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114951)
Oh No! I've perpetuated an urban myth!
http://www.snopes.com/business/genius/usa.asp
Sorry guys. I uncovered the following at www.snopes.com:

Snip>:

Claim: Japan renamed a town 'Usa' so that they could legitimately stamp their exports 'Made in USA.'

Status: False.

Origins: In the years after World War II, Japan, whose manufacturing capabilities had been almost completely wiped out by Allied bombing, attempted to rebuild both their economy and their industrial base by producing large quantities of inexpensive goods and exporting them to America and other countries. (The USA was the primary market, however, since it emerged from the war with a robust economy and had no damaged infrastructure to rebuild.) The phrase "Made in Japan" came to symbolize cheap, shoddy goods to Americans, and eventually the rumor arose that Japan had sought to avoid this stigma by deviously renaming one of its towns "Usa" so it could identify its products as being "Made in USA."

This rumor was almost certainly a tongue-in-cheek joke inspired by someone's noticing the coincidence of a town in Japan named Usa (and perhaps fueled by American xenophobia or lingering resentment of the Japanese). In fact, the Japanese city of Usa (on the island of Kyushu) was not creating by renaming an existing town; it was called Usa long before World War II. As well, nearly every country that imports goods requires them to be marked with the name of their country of origin, not a town or city, and it would have taken some circuitous (and probably expensive) routing to get goods marked "Made in USA" into other countries without anyone's noticing that they had originated in Japan. America, especially, Japan's largest market by far, would certainly have noticed the incongruity of goods marked "Made in USA" being imported into the USA.


So much for a good story! However, it fits in well with my previously postulated historical perspective, that the urban myth even started.

Cheers! GS
Denarius
(01/09/2004; 05:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114952)
@Golden Era - About Greenspan - A ridiculous hunch?
----------------------------------------------------------
Golden Era (01/08/04; 18:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114902)
About Greenspan - I suspect that Greenspan's hidden agenda is to intentionally create an environment that will "force" a situation for the US dollar to be pecked to Gold and other PM. A man of his stature is not known to be careless in speech as some may suggest and we all know how he feels about Gold. This has always been his "dream" but he cannot be upfront about what he is doing for political reasons until such time when he feels the world has reached that crossroad. - A ridiculous hunch?
----------------------------------------------------------
You are the fourth person I found who has independently thought of this exact possibility and expressed it publicly in the last several years. It is the kind of idea that is rejected out-of-hand when first proposed. You know, like taking flight in heavier-than-air machines or - now get this - actually flying a man to the MOON! Yep, right up there on the rediculous scale, imo.

I can't guess at how the USD can ever be tied to gold and other PM again. I can only postulate how the New-Dollar can have PM backing. It can get it by Imperial Decree, or by Executive Order as it is now known. The conditions under which such an EO could be issued would need to be no less devastating than they were in 1933 when the opposite ruling was made. Likewise, it will not be a move made in the glow of enlightment but in the darkness of despair.

Desperation - Depression - that's where Greenspan comes to the rescue with his marvelously convoluted yet quite simple plan of saving the nation and thereby the world. His plan will have been so well thought out over a span of forty years that it will engender no competition and little or no criticism. It will be implemented by an EO of President Cheney and hailed in the US Congress, thankful that their constitutional responsibilities have once again been lifted from their shoulders. It will lift the ugly mood off the nation even in the shadow of world skepticism - and just in time for Rumsfeld's election in 2008. It will be a happy time.

And that, buoys and gulls, is how Sir Alan became Saint Al. The End.

Naw, never happen, just our luck that Bernanke won't understand what Al will be trying to tell him from his death bed. Other than that, maybe.

Denarius
(01/09/2004; 05:11:37 MDT - Msg ID: 114953)
@Bulldog ref: Golden Era

Bulldog (01/08/04; 21:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114908)
Golden Era

If the $ gets pegged to gold, then given the amount of $, gold will be valued in 5 figures.
D> The number $36,000 has been estimated by some.

I myself am waiting for gold to be its own standard, beyond merely fiat.
D> An item does not become money when issued but only upon acceptance in payment. The power of gold to be money is intrinsic; it awaits only to be activated by your offer and another's acceptance. It is that simple. It requires no laws. It is it's own rule, the rule of universal acceptance. If I accept your offer of one ounce of fine gold for one of my equally fine goats guess what; WE are on the gold standard.

I do expect the physical supplies to dry up sooner than later. When they say, gold get you some, it is the best advice to follow. If we live long enough, this "wealth" will come.
D> The pressure to blow the top off the fiat scam has been building since the mid 1960s; it won't be much longer, imo.

If I get rid of any of my gold, it will not be for fiat, but to acquire assets.
D> That is EXACTLY the point that so many others don't get. There won't BE any fiat floating around when gold comes back into its own proper place for comerce and for wealth storage. As a necessary part of the return to real money, the Legal Tender Laws will be repealed. The only ways for you to get rid of your PM will be to spend it, make jewlery, or pass it on to your heirs. It is that simple.

=========================================================

D> As I see it, there will be your gold and the 'claim checks' you write on it to carry on normal living. Each of us that has PM will be in the position to BE our own bank. (No PM dealer I have spoken to seems to be able to understand that they have the perfect setup to be the new banks; they just can't seem to 'get it' - or my powers of communication are woefully lacking.)
Some may choose to deposit their gold into your bank, or another one with a proper vault, and write checks against their gold there. One such system already exists in the guise of GoldMoney, as I understand it. For large payments, the actual gold will be transferred from one person's vault to another much as international settlements were made by moving gold from one locker to another in the basement of the NY Federal Reserve Bank. Now the gold just sits there and the electronic claims on it are moved from one computer file to another. We have the technology to make it all so simple that the PTB will resist it to their end. So be it.

I expect these to be the final words ending an era: "A million fiat bid - none offered. This Exchange is Closed."

That is the exact point at which gold reclaims its rightful place as money, the only money. I think Anton Fekete had written something along these lines.
steady
(01/09/2004; 05:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 114954)
DiGiTs In ThE HuNdReDtHs PlAcE
dEy JuSt ApPeArD. wHaTs It MeAn?
steady
(01/09/2004; 05:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114955)
import exports
if im not mistaken which i often am, the feds reposaitory in ny, isnt classifyed as us soil so when trhey move gold out of the sa its not an export so there gold movements are not reported since they dont fall under usa controlled assets since the fed is a private non us owned bank! and the movement of there assests arent reflected on the balance shet of the usa,
why do u think we got deep storage gold?
cause the valuts are empty and the gold that may or not be in there is cstodial gold not reserve gold.

yep i know this choir hasnt forgotten the reclassificatio of the gold reseve from reserve stats and after they got bsted for that with there paper trail, they had to reclassify it once more to deep storage gold.

anyway lots of profligactic acts in the gold world to obstificate the trth and to create fog so the sheeple wont see the golden and silver beams that are subconsciously trying to call out to all and any who have not lost there innate ability to recognize true value and true wealth! gold and silver calling out to be rescued and restored to there proper place at teh top of the ecomonic food chain, in nature that is called dawinism, in the business world its called ecoism!
Dollar Bill
(01/09/2004; 05:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114956)
*>*
If that fellow who was so hostile to my educators, by that I mean you guys, if he had just read longer, he might have seen the manipulation more and more. Here is another area of manipulation, the junk bond yield spread market. If companies can continue to roll over thier debt, and at low spreads, I guess even pigs can fly. How long? I guess the spreads are something to add to our list of watched items.

"as long as the corporate bond market remains healthy, then equity prices would be expected to continue their general uptrend, with nothing worse than the occasional correction happening from time to time.
junk bond yield spreads have narrowed by 700 basis points since hitting a record 1100 basis points during the near-meltdown. That means that we are only about 150 basis points away from the incredibly narrow spreads that prevailed in the two years prior to the Asian crisis. Those low spread levels sparked the surge in corporate debt issuance that led to the equity bubble.
..the next batch of corporate bond maturities that are stacked up in 2006-2008 comes onto the horizon. Should companies have as much trouble rolling over those maturities as they did in the 2001-2002 time frame, a repeat of the deflation in stock prices of the last few years could then happen. "
Cavan Man
(01/09/2004; 05:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 114957)
US Space "plans"
We have the best economy debt can buy. Thanks GAB.
Usul
(01/09/2004; 06:12:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114958)
Reserves shock hammers Shell
http://www.thisislondon.com/news/business/articles/timid72751?source="In a shock announcement that wiped about �2.5bn off the stock market value of the Anglo-Dutch group, Shell said it had over-reported its proven reserves by 25%"

This should not be a surprise to regular USAGOLD readers. According to the roach theory, and the observation that corporate behaviour is not dissimilar to that of sheep and lemmings, there may well not be just the one company that is overstating is reserves. Just another case of corporate rosy-scenario painting.

A 2002 study from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Environmental Energy Technologies Division estimated that recoverable oil reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) reported in the media were overstated by about a factor of three for the prevailing oil price.

Dr Colin Campbell has calculated that over 300 Gb of world reserve claims are spurious. We are not far from the "Hubbert Peak". Of course, reserves may well be recoverable, but at a higher price. At some point the flow from the cheap pipelines is going to dry up, no matter how hard we pump.
Clink!
(01/09/2004; 06:42:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114960)
Gresham's Law
It would appear that, if there is really 80cents of metal value in a penny, and the dollar continues to fall as it has in the last months, we may be witness to a superb example of Gresham's Law in practice. A 'good' metal penny will more-or-less disappear, starting this year. What will be the first sign of distress ? How about the re-emergence of that campaign from a while back which had every cashier asking if you had any pennies ?

I'm not sure that I would go as far as actively buying tubes of pennies (although you get a LOT of weight for your money - silver lovers eat your heart out !), I have started to keep a jam jar for loose ones on my bedside table. If we have a severe bout of inflation, such as in Zimbabwe, it may be useful to have even smaller metal denominations than those silver dimes, quarters and halves. (It also helps to avoid questions from doubtful spouses who keep on muttering that you spend too much time on that computer reading about precious metals. "Er, it's for charity, honey. Let's both see if we can fill it up before next Christmas !")

Clink! (although, to be strictly sonorously accurate with this post, that should be Chink! Copper on glass, it's just not the same ...)
White Rose
(01/09/2004; 07:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114961)
Manybe we need the moon for energy
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/helium3_000630.htmlDo a google search for three "words": helium 3 moon

The moon has a unique fuel for fusion reactors not found on the earth.

As far as we know, there are no moon guys with rocket-propelled gernades on the moon, so it is the perfect place to invade for the energy resources.

When the beast is faced with energy shortages, it will try all kinds of schemes.

I suspect that the Mars stuff will be dropped once Bush gets the price tag.
MK
(01/09/2004; 07:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 114962)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

Breaking Gold News!

Scroll down for Stein's view of Mars probe.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 08:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 114963)
Jobs and Terror Reports
Five minutes after the release of the jobs report, showing 1000 new non-farm jobs in December, Tom Ridge gratiously drops the terror alert from Orange to Yellow. Such convenient information management.

He sure makes me feel more "SECURE". The most secure thing in his universe is his hair, which could probably withstand an airliner crash unfettered...
steady
(01/09/2004; 08:42:14 MDT - Msg ID: 114964)
markets to probe uranus?
markets to go look for gas on and in uranus?

allan greenspam want to go to uranus to check out its econiomic model?

is there fiat on uranus?

how much gold is under the surface of uranus?
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 08:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114965)
Statistics just don't work anymore?
CNBC is saying this about the jobs report. I wonder why the profits, ISM, GDP, and CPI numbers aren't scrutinized this heavily.

Let's see . . . 1000 jobs - that's about 1 per decent sized city. Christmas and all, I bet they were all last minute WMT Santas. That way, they won't be looking for work again until next Christmas.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 08:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 114966)
Uranus?
@ steady

No gold, maybe gas. . .

GWB is announcing US Mars exploration plans later today - are we honoring the god of war?
Golden Era
(01/09/2004; 08:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114967)
About MARS
http://www.goroadachi.com/etemenanki/An interesting alternative view-point about the conquest of MARS.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 09:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 114968)
Spot and Spike @ $426
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s@ Gandalf

Don't hold the boyz back. They really want to JUMP today!
Waverider
(01/09/2004; 09:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 114969)
Silver too Goldilox....
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1...the Silver bullet is not to be left behind... :)
Golden Era
(01/09/2004; 09:19:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114970)
About Greenspan
Denarius,

Thanks for the response.

Just a follow-up thought. Can for all the gold that has been mined by man for thousand of years and all the gold that have been sold by the central banks be accounted for? What if they have been hoarded in hugh quantities by some covert organisation in the last few decades which only the select few like Greenspan is aware of.

Am I getting more Outrageous?


Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 09:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 114971)
Look out below!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Dx at 85.04 - 84.xx next - Look out below!
Clink!
(01/09/2004; 10:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 114972)
Wanna see a double top ?
Go to your preferred stock chart site and take a look at the six month window on PHM, LEN or DHI. You will see a beautiful medium-term rounded top, neatly cleaved into two short-term tops, the second top being typically bearish as it is lower than the first.

The relevence of this ? These are all homebuilders. Is real estate goin' down ?

C!
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 10:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114974)
Royal Dutch Shares drop along with reserves inventory
CBS MarketWatch.comsnippit:

"But the oil sector was in freefall, after Royal Dutch/Shell reclassified the quality of 20 percent of its proven crude and natural gas reserves. In Amsterdam trade, Royal Dutch shares (RD, Trade) dropped over 6 percent, while other oils majors, such as France's Total (TOT, Trade), were lower as well, with Total down 1.6 percent."

Goldilox:

I guess if the banks and corporations can "lose" money from their books, it was only time before a resource company pulled the same shenanigans.
steady
(01/09/2004; 10:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114975)
gold smoking thru 420 again
half way thru its stash at the 420 level lets hope gold doesnt get so high that it stumbles and falls, gold looking for more than the head rush from 420!
Clink!
(01/09/2004; 10:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114976)
More on real estate
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kettell/kettell010804.htmlI should have posted the whole link, because the article was more interesting than just the first paragraph (I just got carried away with the TA). Coming to a US city near you soon ? He's talking about the early-to-mid 80s.

Snip

I want to tell you what many people in Houston (who still had jobs) did when home prices collapsed. They would have a house valued at say $60k, which had cost them $110k and on which they had a $100k mortgage. They would go out and buy a foreclosed house for $100k which was twice the size of their existing house. They told the lender they were in the process of selling their existing home, so the lender would gleefully approve them for the new loan. Their home payments would be about the same as on the first house. Then they would go out and buy a new car and anything else they needed to buy on credit. Finally, they would contact their lender on the first home and tell them that they were quit claiming the house over to them. Rather than fight it, the existing lender would take back the house and post the foreclosure to the credit report of the homeowner. The homeowners weren't bothered about the foreclosure, because they had their immediate needs covered, house, car, etc. The lenders wouldn't bother taking the owners to court, because they were inundated with foreclosures, and it was far cheaper for them to simply take the property back peaceably. Human ingenuity and/or conniving is incredible!

C!
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 10:30:11 MDT - Msg ID: 114977)
Gold Battle
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Someone is expending a lot of capital to keep gold under $425.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 10:40:50 MDT - Msg ID: 114978)
Gold Battle - continued
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1$425.90 - here we go again.

Jump boyz, jump!!!!

Bite those CABAL jerks right on their wallet pocket!
The Hoople
(01/09/2004; 10:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 114979)
Goldilox
You can't beat Duke Energy for a "resource writedown". They just took a 3.3 billion hit largely to reflect the declining market value of their merchant power plants. Who's a Joe Sixpack gonna trust? I saw those dinosaur abandoned plants a couple years ago and knew they weren't fessing up. I think it was Arthur C. Clarke who said the truth is always stranger than fiction. When all the truth is revealed on Wall Street I doubt if any fiction writer could dream of such total corruption. Meanwhile, gold shines through the din as it has for centuries.
Paper Avalanche
(01/09/2004; 10:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 114980)
It may be a delay in reporting prices, but......
It would appear that the futures contract price is at 425.20 and the spot price is at 426.40 as of 12:50 EST.

Is there a shortage of physical gold?

PA
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 10:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 114981)
New high for today
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1$426.80 off to new highs for the day.

PA - you're a genius!!
DryWasher
(01/09/2004; 11:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 114982)
"Whom the gods will destroy, they first make mad...."

Great Albino Bat (msg#: 114946) wrote:

"Those are words from Greek tragedy, 2,400 years ago.

I can't help but think of those words, reading that Pres. Bush plans to build a permanent space station on the Moon, and send an expedition to Mars.

Good Lord! As if the current financial situation of the US was not desperate enough, more spending will be added to the present overload of deficit.

Mr. Bush appears to be clueless. He seems utterly out of touch with reality. Look at him in the news and he seems to exude confidence, he is quite merry and smiling."

DryWasher Comment:

Yes Sir GAB, you have it exactly right. From the sublime to the ridiculous, to the sublimely ridiculous, to the ridiculously sublime, to the total complete madness that this latest offering from the leader of the free world represents.

Is it any wonder that the Dollar is in a free fall this morning? It should be entertaining to see how the Democratic candidates respond to this proposal, not to mention the late night talk show hosts reactions.

Gold. Get you some, and hang on tight because me thinks we are in for a wild ride ahead.
Great Albino Bat
(01/09/2004; 11:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 114983)
Golden Era (1/9/04; 09:19:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114970)

Golden Era, I have the same hunch you have, and I have had it for a long time now.

The true insiders on gold are perhaps the world's most intelligent people - not necessarily the best people, but the smartest. They have called the shots in world affairs for hundreds of years.

We are as little children to these people, as far as knowing what is really going on.

Now, if we in our ignorance and innocence can perceive what is going on, and what has to happen, we can be absolutely certain they have known it for a long, long time as well.

It is my opinion that these people have been liquidating the only real assets of the world's central banks - GOLD - for quite some time now, because it was evident since before Nixon took the US off gold redemption back in 1971, that the present international monetary system was headed for disaster. That liquidation of Central Bank assets provided these insiders with vast amounts of gold which they were able to acquire very cheaply indeed.

I have a hunch about where massive stocks of gold will turn up someday, when things are again reorganized. It won't be Fort Knox! But I'll keep that to myself.

Sometimes intuition is spot on. And as Hoople quoted a bit earlier, Truth is Stranger than Fiction - and how! Be sure to get your share of gold a.s.a.p.

The GAB
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 11:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 114984)
Go Go Gadget Gold Chart!
INO, Kitco, and Focus.comdirect - you know where they areUp toward the close. Can we break and hold $427?

By the way, one look at the DX and Kittie went back to bed again. These regular "dead cat bounces" are gonna make him a candidate for cat Prozac soon.

I'll give him some catnip when he awakens.
R Powell
(01/09/2004; 11:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 114986)
Comex margins
Goldilox, you asked (114921) about any possible meaning (consequence) to increased margin requirements...

"Might the change in silver margins and NOT gold margins be a sign of tighter liquidity in Ag? Maybe some of the shortages that have defied market interest so far are being felt?"

As Waverider reported (114909), some commodity margins, including copper and silver, are scheduled to be raised. This was predicted only a short while ago, right here on the USA forum.

Usually, when any commodity increases in price its daily volatility (price swings) also increase. Almost all futures positions are offset before the final delivery deadline. So, in essence, the margin is just monies available in the trading account that have a lien placed against them while the position is active. In the rare case of delivery, the margin is the downpayment with the rest of the payment in full due upon delivery for the buyer. Mathematically, the same small percentage move in price becomes greater as the price increases. A 2% move of $5.00 silver is $0.10 but a 2% move of $6.00 silver is $0.12. Larger price moves imply greater risk :>( and greater reward :>).

While the position is open, the margin's purpose is to insure that the trader has the means (money) to cover any potential lose. This protects the counterparty and insures against default. Basically, if you're playing poker with other unknown players, you want to see the color of their money before you risk your own. Now, with greater swings in the price of copper (price of copper = wow!) and silver, imho, it's prudent that the Exchange raise the margin to insure that the losing players will be able to cover their loses. The old $1350 silver margin covered a move of $0.27 in the POG. The new margin will cover a greater move of just over $0.40 in the POS. A contract of Comex silver is standardized as 5,000 ounces so a penny move represents $50. I would not be surprised to see increased margins in other commodities (natural gas?) soon if they remain high and active. Basically, the amount of margin required is determined (arbitrarily?) by the risk involved with the contract. Margin for 5,000 bushels of corn is only about $600 but corn usually moves only a few cents/day and large swings take more time than is now the case with silver.

As Aristotle mentioned, the margin to hold a contract of gold increased last year. Gold became very active last year. Margin is required for both the buyers (longs) and the sellers (shorts). As for liquidity, the increased margins may lower the number of players now entering the casino, who simply do not have the margin money available in their accounts or the risk tolerance in their blood. However, I don't believe the increased margin reflects the tightness of supply either of available Comex silver or of available physical. However, the increased POS itself may be indicating some awareness of tight physical supply. Usually, increases in the lease rates indicate some immediate physical shortage, often in London and usually temporary. One fine day this will occur but prove to be not so temporary. I hope I live long enough to see this.

I hope this helps some.
Thanks to Waverider, always on the alert for us. With her on duty, I know not too much will go unnoticed concerning the casinos, especially any metals' lease rate changes.
Rich

TownCrier
(01/09/2004; 11:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 114987)
Special Market Wrapup: "Believe it!" by Jim Puplava and Eric King
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplavabelieve.htmlThanks first to Black Blade for recommending that this be included in our Gilded Opinion, and finally, thanks again to Mary and Jim Puplava for their gracious permission to reproduce selected features from Financial Sense Online here at USAGOLD.

Excerpts from article:

An investor would be fortunate enough if he or she were to encounter one or two secular bull markets in their lifetime. Secular bull markets can last a long time and make investors a lot of money.This is one of those times.

A new bull market has begun in commodities, especially gold and silver. This new bull market is a secular bull market and it coexists with a cyclical bull market in equities. It is one reason that it has gotten little attention and has gone unnoticed by the vast majority of investors. ...This new bull market in gold and silver has no greater friend than Mr. Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan's penchant for fighting every financial crisis and every recession with more money and credit are creating the ideal monetary conditions for a major bull market in the precious metals. His expansionary monetary policies know no equal.

As to how to play this new bull market, which is only in its formative phase, I recommend a buy-and-accumulate strategy. When a bull market is in its formative stages, before institutions or the general public comes in, your best strategy is to buy and accumulate. ...new bull markets have a way of confounding the experts. Old chart patterns change. Resistance levels are taken out, new support levels are drawn on the charts, and you start to see higher highs and higher lows. That is the most telegraphic sign that you are in a new bull market.

In the early stages, you want to be a buyer and accumulator of bullion and precious metal equities. In the early stages of a bull market you buy on the dips and hold. Don't trade out of your position. Why? Because when you least expect it, the bull will roar and charge upward to higher levels. As Richard Russell is fond of saying, a new bull market will try to throw investors off every chance it can. Russell recommends putting a third of your portfolio in bullion and stocks and then holding on for the rise of your life. I couldn't agree more. Trading in and out of stocks or bullion at this point can be quite costly.

(click url for full text)

JP concludes: "Trying to trade your way in and out of this new bull market can be detrimental to our financial health. Most of the wealthiest people I have met in the investment world have not been traders. They were INVESTORS. Unless you are absolutely confident that you can trade in and out of this market, always buying in at the bottom and always getting out at the tops, you will find it more profitable to hold your positions and adding to them on the dips. It's time you became a believing investor."

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/09/2004; 12:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 114989)
Hard assets... easy access! Delivered to your door.
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html


"There is nothing on earth
that can be all things to all people.
Gold comes damned close."

-- R. Strauss

Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 12:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 114990)
Margin requirements
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1thanks Rich-

$6.45 looks pretty good for a days work, eh?
R Powell
(01/09/2004; 12:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 114991)
Hello silver !!
March Comex close $6.497, up 22.4

Goldilox, about that margin increase, today's one day move translates into a $1120 paper gain for the longs and an equivalent lose for the shorts. This is almost the entire $1350 old margin requirement. No tears here! I certainly do hope the shorts are all current with their margins.

If time allows, maybe the Wizard will post one of his charts for silver with lots of green Xs on it!! And a prediction from the crystal? The interday high on Feb. 5, 1998 was $7.38. Is it now in sight? I won't mention the old high from 1980....yet!
a very happy Rich
Rich
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 13:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 114992)
Levi's moves West (beyond the Int'l Dateline) - closes 2 remaining US plants
http://www.citizenonline.net/citizen/archive/article6132461CC81849CA8F7A02FA4FDC80F9.aspsnippit:

"SAN ANTONIO (AP) � Levi Strauss & Co., the California Gold Rush outfitter whose blue jeans are a globally recognized symbol of America, closed its last two U.S. sewing plants Thursday.
About 800 workers at the 26-year-old San Antonio plants lost their jobs in the move, which was announced last September.
The financially troubled company, based in San Francisco, has been shifting production to overseas contractors for years to offset drooping sales in the ultra-competitive apparel market. Only two decades ago, it had 63 U.S. manufacturing plants.
Levi Strauss spokesman Jeff Beckman said the 150-year-old company was making a delayed but unavoidable business decision.
��We tried to do our best to maintain manufacturing in the United States, but we have to be competitive to survive as a company,�� he said.
Sewing in San Antonio finished up around Thanksgiving and last month it ceased the laundering work done to give jeans their various finishes. Once, more than 4 million pairs of jeans were made here each year by workers earning an average of $10-$12 per hour.
This spring Levi's will shutter its three remaining company-owned plants in Canada, completing the shift to contract production in China and other countries with far cheaper labor."

Goldilox:

This is hardly news at this juncture. The only tradesmen left in this country are printing press operators of the Bernanke money machine.
steady
(01/09/2004; 13:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 114993)
what if
what if u are fully invested in the paper game, and playing with the casinos money, why not if u can trade in and out on to gain more digital credits. then use those digital credits to buy more shares of the co u are holding in your core positions. with without adding any more fiat to your account and using that fiat for physical.
nothing was ever achieved without taking a risk.
R Powell
(01/09/2004; 13:49:01 MDT - Msg ID: 114994)
From the horse's mouth,
That horse being Jim Glassman, Sr. Ecomonist for J.P. Morgan who was just interviewed by the lovely Maria on the peoples' stock picking television channel.

Jim says that "everyone knows recovery is here" and that "nothing on the economic front indicates caution". He was refering to stock buying, of course. He says that inflation is still deflating and currently one half of one percent. He speculates the next report will show the core rate flat.

I think I'll e-mail Jim to ask him the name of his optometrist.
Rich
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 13:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 114995)
paper Risks
@ steady

If everything in the paper market is risk capital, with expectations to lose as well as win, have at it. If the paper burns, then it's all gone anyway. A major reason for removing winnings from the "table" and storing physical is for liquidity and wealth to survive if the paper game goes drastically sour.

If 90% of your assets crash in the paper game, you need a 10X return on physical (insurance) value to "get even" - not counting what other abberations are included in "getting even".

That's why wary managers are uping their allocation of "insurance" from 10% to 20% or even 30%. At 30%, if your paper assets crash, a 10X return on physical assets averages out to about 3X the original asset portfolio.
steady
(01/09/2004; 14:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 114996)
risks turne dinto mining opportunities
yep its all risk capitol and im taking some off the table as frequently as i can once my accounts digital credits equal a certain level then its off the table with that digital money .

it a trip push certain buttons in te right sequence and at the right time, see its so backwards that they gpot ya conditioned cause of trafic lights to thing green means go and red means stop, but in the big paper casino its just the opposite, red means go, green means stop.

then u see i press even another machines buttons and lo and behold someone talks back to me and i say hey send me a check,a few days latter the post main brings me paper with more digits imprinted upon them , i run as quick as my lil hobbit feet can carry me to the bankers office and say hey can i put this into your care for a few days.
then i go to another machine and put in a plastic card and punchh in even another sequence of numbers to finally get some of dem unprized papers that the federal reserve disguises to pass as united states dollars by printing under the federal reserve note
the united states of america ,for what reason i dont know but only to fool the unsuspecting., then finally i get to go to where teh real money is and exchange some of those papers for gold and silver the real honest money.
a laborious process , but alot easier to mine gold/silver that way, as well heck most of the good claims are allready taken and i dont really feel like prospecting anyway when i can mne for gold this way, and never ever expose myself to the elements. yes my goal is to have more ral money than digital money but the dang paper leverage is making it hard to keep up, but im getting there one gram at a time!
Denarius
(01/09/2004; 14:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 114997)
@Golden Era - About Greenspan & Outrageous
Golden Era (1/9/04; 09:19:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114970)
About Greenspan

Just a follow-up thought. Can - all the gold that has been mined by man for thousand of years and all the gold that have been sold by the central banks be accounted for?
D> Yes, it will be accounted for, one troy ounce at a time as it is spent over the next few thousand years.

What if they have been hoarded in hugh quantities by some covert organisation in the last few decades which only the select few like Greenspan is aware of.
D> No matter to me since I 'joined' that group of hoarders some time back.

Am I getting more Outrageous?
D> I don't know, let me see. Running your last statement through the Outrageous Quantifying Subroutine in my surplus HAL-1000 we get the result:
>>>> "Why, no, what makes you ask, Dave?" <<<<
I'm no conspiracy junkie but the truth is always unbelievable when first revealed. In fact, that reminds me of something I wrote a few years back when my life wasn't going so well. Fwiw,

=There are only three ways sheeple handle new information;
=They ignore it,
=Then they deny it,
=And then they wage war on it.

But don't rely on me; ask Galileo when you see him.

Outrageous? You want Outrageous? Here's some outrageous for you -- if you can handle outrageous:

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?=2&hist=14d&lSyms=SLV.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=SLV.FX1

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=14d&lSyms=GLD.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=GLD.FX1

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$copper,uu[c,a]dalanyay[da][p][vc60][i]&r=0501

Not a bad way to start the new year, imo.
Unless, of course, you're holding the USD in your portfolio:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=15&a=0&v=w

I might even predict that the word 'outrageous' will get worn out in this next year -- or in this posting!

Have a Good Weekend, all; I know mine already has a silver blush on its golden glow. (Now where did I put that last dollar and the frame for it?)

a nation of one
(01/09/2004; 14:17:19 MDT - Msg ID: 114998)
to gab

The "world's most intelligent people," contrary to the current propaganda would have us believe, fortunately, are not members of one racial, social, religious, or ethnic group, but are spread throughout humanity. Every group has its members who are more intelligent than the rest. But what needs to be paid attention to is not mere intelligence, but where is it located, in terms of mental component. It is possible for a human individual to possess very high intelligence, say, in the verbal component, which would mean that the individual would be able to verbalize his thoughts in a very intelligent way, while, at the same time, other mental components -in the same individual's mind- may not be highly intelligent (and in fact may be below average intelligence), which would mean that the very intelligently expressed verbalizations of such a person would be made up of ideas which, themselves, were not intelligent at all. If you look carefully for this, you will see it. I believe it is pretty clear that this is going on right now in very visible ways, with respect to some pretty significant events, in the world. Remember, most human beings are only of average intelligence or below. And many who are very intelligent have comparatively little ability to express their ideas well. The concept of intelligence, therefore, is often misinterpreted, sometimes coincidently, sometimes deliberately to achieve a particular type of result, such as in propaganda to raise one group above another. Those with higher intelligence in math, for instance, are more likely to be good also at finances, and these will be more likely to recognize the present virtues of gold, than someone who is good at obedience, for example. And then of course there are those who lack all ability to do things even so simple as spell English words properly, and yet who show their other types of intelligence every day, some of them on this forum. These are probably more intelligent than those to whom you refer as "The world's most intelligenct people."
Cavan Man
(01/09/2004; 14:33:09 MDT - Msg ID: 114999)
Your "Great White Father"(knows best eh?) in Washington
Affecting POG by the 24-7 (BELIEVE IT)Former Treasury Sec. Paints Bush as 'Blind Man'
Fri January 09, 2004 10:41 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill likened President Bush at Cabinet meetings to "a blind man in a room full of deaf people," according to excerpts on Friday from a CBS interview.
O'Neill, who was fired by Bush in December 2002, also said the president did not ask him a single question during their first one-on-one meeting, which lasted an hour.

"As I recall it was just a monologue," he told CBS' "60 Minutes," which will broadcast the entire interview on Sunday.

In making the blind man analogy, O'Neill told CBS his ex-boss did not encourage a free flow of ideas or open debate.

"There is no discernible connection," CBS quoted O'Neill as saying. The president's lack of engagement left his advisers with "little more than hunches about what the president might think," O'Neill said, according to the program.

CBS said much of O'Neill's criticisms of Bush are included in "The Price of Loyalty," an upcoming book by former Wall Street Journal reporter Ron Suskind.
Twincaman
(01/09/2004; 15:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115000)
Hard Money
Despite all this talk of physical gold being used as money, I believe that paper or electronic money must continue. Without it, modern commerce would cease. Currency used in trade IMHO has to be more portable than Kruggerands.

We will always have some kind of currency, maybe pegged to a measured amount of a non-inflatable commodity like gold. Physical gold as money is incompatible with world trade.
Gene
(01/09/2004; 16:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115001)
@Caman
Couldn't gold debits & payments be handled by book entries, just like T-notes are handled today?
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 16:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 115002)
gold credits and debits
@ Gene

Oh you mean, like, dollars defined in the constitution?

That's where this all started until some greedy bozos decided there wasn't enough gold to keep up with their inflationary ideals.
Ag Mountain
(01/09/2004; 17:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115003)
Goldilox, those bozos are us!
Those greedy bozos as you call them are all around us. They're your friend, brother, parents, neighbor, and anyone else who ever borrowed money from a bank as a way to tap into their future stream of productivity (wages) in order to start living a more comfortable life today.

Some people here like to gripe about it but I can tell you the root of the effect is every bit as innocent as it is inflationary.

So the trick as the giants at this forum have shown us is not to let our combination of good intentions and ignorance combine to repeat old mistakes. They want to get rid of the inflation of financial gold obligations that are treated and accounted for as if they were part of the true gold supply. That's what they mean by setting gold free -- eliminating the illusion of abundance caused by the bookkeeping of financial gold obligations as derivatives of real gold.
Gandalf the White
(01/09/2004; 17:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115004)
YES, Sir Rich !!! Your wish is my command ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GAlthough not of TRADITIONAL P&F design, (which does not give an adequate PICTURE), this above LINKED SPECIAL P&F SILVER CHART (just for you) shows that "HI HO SILVER" is off and running again today, (AND it won't stop for a while !) ----
HAVE fun while ALL the clouds have those SILVER linings !
<;-)
Goldendome
(01/09/2004; 17:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 115005)
Poor Man's Gold closing the Gap!
Gold/Silver ratio today is at 65.97 to 1
At the end of Dec.it was......70.50
Back in May it was, TA-TAhh...80.+

Gold has been repressed and is breaking out. Others also say that Silver has been, at least, equally repressed and that Demand/Supply issues with Silver may be more extreme. Gold is pulling the Silver caboose, but the Silver shorts will be creamed as badly as the Gold shorts. Gold and Silver--both-real money for thousands of years. Got-and-getting more onto the Gold and Silver express.
Federal_Reserves
(01/09/2004; 18:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 115006)
Industry on Parade
http://americanhistory.si.edu/archives/d4507.htmThe USA was once a producing country, and we were proud of it. Industry on Parade was a great show born in the great 1950's era. It started with a loud whistle blowing, and the work shifts starting. It then explained the real craft of life - manufacturing. Do you remember this show? To bad they took it off.

Now we are losing jobs and deeply in debt. We make a living as door greeters at Wal-Mart selling cheap crap others make. Goverment and trade deficits are piling high. The dollar is turning into toliet paper. Soon
it will be used as wipe because it will be cheaper than
CHARMIN.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO US?








Paper Avalanche
(01/09/2004; 18:32:11 MDT - Msg ID: 115007)
@ Goldilox
Genius. I am anything but. I am just a guy drinking beer watching this whole gold thing shake out and learning from the truly insightful, intellectual giants who unselfishly provide us all with an education that could not be found anywhere else.

If you make enough guesses at a specific outcome, you eventually get it right (albeit that I actually predicted $430+ close today). As they say in sales, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

Humbly yours,

PA
Paper Avalanche
(01/09/2004; 19:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 115008)
@ Twincaman
Per your earlier post...

"Despite all this talk of physical gold being used as money, I believe that paper or electronic money must continue. Without it, modern commerce would cease. Currency used in trade IMHO has to be more portable than Kruggerands.

We will always have some kind of currency, maybe pegged to a measured amount of a non-inflatable commodity like gold. Physical gold as money is incompatible with world trade."

I have the following thoughts that may provide some clarity and insight into what lies ahead.

For starters, there is no talk about gold being used as "money" on this site by the regulars. The reason for this is that what lies ahead of us is gold being internationally reconized a store of value (a means by which one could preserve the excess of labor for future use not subject to bank / government devaluation as is now the case with paper dollars or dollar denominated financial "assets").

I agree that we will forever need a universally accepted transaction medium by which those that produce widget A can convert the product of their labor into product B. However, I believe that it is a mistake to assume that because gold was a monetary unit in the past that it will be utilized in similar measure in the future. Your post points out the fact that the high tech nature of commerce today requires a transaction currency with which workers can exchange labor for goods.

I believe that gold is a horrible currnecy. However, it is a terrific store of wealth.

What is wealth?

To me it is a function of my chronological point in my life timeline. I am 33 years old. I know that I can produce more than I need to live on for the next 20 years (hopefully) and I also realize that I may live beyond my productive years such that I may rely upon the bounty of my productive years to complement whatever meager earnings I can generate when I am less capable. To that end I wish to conserve my excess labor in a vehicle that is not subject to any man's political will, greed or fraud. As a result, I do not contribute anything to my 401(k) (because the stock market generates an average return of 7% and health care costs - which is what you are saving for in retirement anyway - are rising at a rate of 20+% annually - even a Wharton grad could figure this out).

In a nutshell, and hopefully to your benefit, I would ask that you dwell upon the difference between the following concepts:

transaction medium

store of wealth

transaction medium

store of wealth

transaction medium

store of wealth

Gold is not money. It has only been for brief periods of time in history (relative to paper money - and only under penalty of law for deviation from said state set exchange rate). It is the absolute best way to preserve that which God has given you and which you only have a finite amount of....

your days on this earth.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche
Paper Avalanche
(01/09/2004; 19:23:19 MDT - Msg ID: 115009)
Spelling errors.....
Repleat in my last post. I beg your indulgence.

PA
Gonlyold
(01/09/2004; 19:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115010)
Banks, UGH!
Ag Mountain said (msg#: 115003)that, "anyone else who ever borrowed money from a bank" is part of the problem. And because borrowing, particularly the money-from-thin-air kind, got us into this mess, you've answered Federal_Reserves's question (msg#: 115006) of, "WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO US?" The fractional reserve system happpened to us. But I'm afraid that it's worse than that.

And whether or not gold can "save" us is questionable. I'm sure a few of us who have physical gold may think that we are in comfortable positions right now, but I don't think that I will be too comfortable when the U.S. economy goes down and other people start getting hungry (This is a subject that deserves more attention than this one parpagraph). Like BB has mentioned many times in the past, food, clothing and shelter: get you some.
White Hills
(01/09/2004; 20:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115011)
Dry washer & Gab
A very well known Salesman of my times, once told me and I have never forgotten, that if at once you see that the Sale is dead any thing you do afterward ,no matter how radical, can only help bring it back to life if possible, if not you haven't lost anything. The dollar is dying IMHO so any effort to revive it no matter how radical is understandable. From the outside it may seem nuts but on the inside that may be a different thing. Perhaps talking about the moon and Mars for instance, may be an effort to put forth something that will divert the publics attention from what is going on in the economic sphere, Perhaps WW3 has started and know one wants to say so. We may be seeing efforts to bring as many allies into our camp as possible and to secure those that are a little shaky, Mexico for instance. All the things being said about the dollar, gold, deficiets, national debt, loss of jobs, loss of manufacturing ability, immigration ect. all are true but everything is different since 9/11 it is a different world and I think the USA is under attack and will do whatever it takes no matter how radical it may seem to preserve our Republic. I don't see any other solution but a radical one, do you?
This is not a political opinion, I could care less who is in office I don't see any difference if you asked me, Maybe on guy seems more likeable than the other but that is in the eye of the beholder. White Hills
Dollar Bill
(01/09/2004; 20:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115012)
*>*
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0The Roach commentary is quite different from his usual hopeful embraceing of -lets share the global realignment schtick-.
Unless it is too late to make your forum gold 04 predictions, I change mine to 450-500. Lets make that 502.
TownCrier, the news is good.
Druid
(01/09/2004; 20:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115013)
(No Subject)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Snip.

"An ominous harbinger for U.S. financial assets," writes our friend Terry Reik of Clapboard Hill Partners, "has been the stunning collapse in foreign-capital flows...From a peak of $110.4 billion in May, net foreign flows have fallen to $90.6 billion in June, to $73.4 billion in July, to $49.9 billion in August, to $4.2 billion in September."

September's net inflow, Terry explains, is only 10% of the monthly minimum required to fund our $500 billion current account gap. Private interests overseas have forsaken the dollar in favor of other assets.

Druid: Oh! Here's the problem.

steady
(01/09/2004; 21:20:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115014)
ECOisms stuff.
many books have been recomended on this form, many dealing with the root of gold, the evolution of the metals role, the ways to grade it, and the wars associated with it, all causes of the recent gyrations we have seen not only in the pog, the pos, the dvig, but in the silver gold ratio as well.

ecosim is the direct results of those causes it is the effect being felt upon the population of this plantet. ecoism takes into consideration of the upcoming effect upon the planets population and recomends three books worthy of reading, 1) taking the fear out of change dr. Denise O'Grady. 2) ethical relativity e.Westmark , especially in light of kilos lighting my eyes up with that superb stuff he posted about everything being relative.(yea , yea BURRRRRRRRRPpppp..... opps im still digesting that food for thought) 3) building mental muscle, conditioning exercises for the six intelligence zones, david Gamon, does it work? has my typing improved?
Ecoism adds compassion to its platform, but not that old style consevative compassion , no this compassion is from the heart and its radience gleaams from eye to eye in a golden silver recognition of brotherhood unity love and trust that no one no group no cartel no govt ever has had the powere to control EVER< and EVER amen! just from a glance a simple eye contact and a nodding of the head, a silent but powerful bond is developing between those who own gold/silver and the gold/silver itself its almost as if its calling out come tell them they may listen now.
this compasion realzes the dire straits many who do not have anything on this planet face, but it is themselvs who have to help themselvs and realize that paper money can be turned into real money now and to actally go do it do it. one 1/10th of an ounce at a time or whatever but since no one has any really then its a level playing fied. so is the compassion limited? heck yes, there are no free lunches anywhere in the univewrse its all universal law exact, mathamatical,and perpeetual. see ecoism realzes that things evolve, and at times devolve but all monetary affairs will revolve around gold and silver in some way and its on its way.
thats the compassion ecoism extends, get gold / silver real money or be left behind. simple as that!
do not miss this trip to infinity and beyond.........
Druid
(01/09/2004; 21:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 115015)
(No Subject)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Snip.

"Gardano suggests that credit card delinquencies and personal bankruptcies are "a natural outgrowth" of a $10 trillion economy driven almost totally by consumer spending. And quite happily adds that the more the "economy improves, the more people will grow deeper in debt and bankruptcies will grow." Now we're completely baffled. Orwell couldn't have improved on this one: Increasing debt and bankruptcies rising from an already staggering historical level = an "improving economy." Color me confused..."

Druid: In some of my more youthful indescretions, which at times, challenged the boundries of my physical and mental well being, I couldn't have smoked or ingested enough drugs or consumed enough alcohol to arrive at this type of totally %$#&@*( logic. It's no wonder that our leaders are looking to far away galaxies for solutions.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 21:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 115016)
Dollar value timeline
http://www.moneyfiles.org/usapower.jpgA cool JPG timeline of US dollar devaluation throughout the 20th century. Good art, too.
Denarius
(01/09/2004; 22:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 115017)
@Waverider - Russia puts gold and silver coins in circulation
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=286383&PageNum=0
Waverider (01/08/04; 23:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114927)

Just to learn something I put the numbers in that article through my Mk-I/Mod-0 brain and the Au/Ag ratio figures to be an even 60 between the two coins. For comparison, the Denarius personal stash just happens to equal 50 to 1 by weight. I believe the Koran gives the ratio of gold to silver as one dinar to seven dirham. For the world at large, our fellow poster provided the rest of the numbers:

Goldendome (1/9/04; 17:57:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115005)
Poor Man's Gold closing the Gap!
Gold/Silver ratio today is at 65.97 to 1
At the end of Dec.it was......70.50
Back in May it was, TA-TAhh...80.+

I'm not sure what I learned by this but I cannot shake the feeling that it is something I will need to know in the not too distant future. Wouldn't it be something if the ratio on the CRIMEX does level out at 60/1 ?

Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 22:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 115018)
Quigley's Book "Tragedy and Hope"
http://www.moneyfiles.org/quigley.html@21Maybry

I remember you had some interest in political history of the international banking community.

Check this link out.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 22:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 115019)
The War Wages On - DOW vs. gold Dow VS Gold The War Wages On Dow VS Gold by Sol War wages on DOW vs. gold
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/2004/0109.htmlsnippit:

"In February 2003, the Dow would only buy about 21 ounces of Gold and yet the price of Gold was about 100 dollars lower than today. Yet this one picture tells a startling tale. While all the gold bugs are jubilant that the price of Gold has gone through the roof, in effect it is nothing but an illusion. The Dow buys much more Gold now then it could about one year ago.

What gives? I have been stating for a long time that everyone needs to wake up and smell the coffee. We are in the midst of a currency war. We have no standard of pricing any currency., that is why Gold is so important because you can measure any currency against a constant. Without Gold the constant value is removed from the equation and all hell breaks lose. That is what is going on right now. While it appears that Gold is going to the moon in US dollars in reality it is not doing much and is still losing value in the strongest currencies."

Goldilox:

More evidence by Sol over at FSU that the current gold rally is a "dollar thang". Phase II should begin the real bull, overtaking stronger currencies, as well. As usual, good reading.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 22:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 115020)
The War rages on - DOW vs. Gold
Catchy title, eh?

sorry about that. I've been reading too long today.
Great Albino Bat
(01/09/2004; 22:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115021)
Nixon's action in 1971 and today's consequences...

I believe it might be useful to review briefly, how Nixon's fateful decision to "close the gold window" on August 15, 1971, is at the root of today's financial disarray throughout the world.

Up to August 15, 1971, all countries of the world had the right to exchange the dollar holdings of their Central Banks for gold, at their option. And all countries of the world, except for the USA, had the obligation to settle claims originating in their imports, by paying either in gold or dollars.

The US was thus able to import from abroad, and pay out either gold or dollars, which were preferred by the US of course, since the US produces dollars via its financial system. Early on, France didn't care much for being paid in dollars, and insisted on gold, much to the US displeasure.

The US was able to expand (create) credit and thus create the possibility for extra IMPORTS, because it had the Fed and banking system to create dollars. The other countries did not have this privilege, they had to pay for their imports by exporting goods or selling services like tourism, for instance. The rest of the world's countries were held back by the fact that they did not create dollars.

The "engine for growth" was thus the US, which was the only country that could print up dollars and buy with them. The other countries had to pay for imports either with stuff they sold, or with gold, or with dollars, which they could get by selling to the US. (US imports were their exports)

If they could not sell all they wanted to the US, they did the next best thing and tried their best, to sell something to someone for dollars, and this meant that someone had to be selling something to the US in order to get those dollars.

By 1968 or so, most of the Central Banks of the world had their fill of dollars and were asking for gold. US and Britain did their best to contain the demand for gold, but to no avail. Gold continued to leave the US.

So we come to 1971. Nixon and his advisers felt that US stocks of gold were dangerously low, and so Nixon said, "No more redemption of dollars for gold."

But, by 1971 the whole world was relying on sales to the US to keep their industries working and their people employed. "No more gold" should have been the immediate signal to hold back sales to the US until a revaluation of gold had taken place and a new monetary arrangement set up, and perhaps that would have included ditching the US privilege of paying for imports in dollars.

But, that did not happen. The structure of world production was, already by then, geared up to sell to the US, and the rest of the world had no leaders to say: "No gold means we don't sell!"

That was 32 years ago.

In the meantime, the dragon of credit creation was turned loose in the US, as the figures show. Dollar creation through credit expansion in the US took off, now that there was no need to redeem dollars held abroad for gold. The dragon of credit expansion had been chained down to the floor, by the fact that dollars had to be redeemed. Now, the dragon was free!

32 years later, the world is completely dependent on continued sales to the US - even for worthless paper! Because stopping the sales means throwing millions out of work.

The ECB is under great pressure to lower its interest rate from 2%; the object of the pressure is to make the Euro worth less, in order to be able to continue selling to the US, or whoever has the dollars. Otherwise, they have to close up shop, as their product is priced out of the market. My guess is that the ECB is going to cave in and debase their currency (that's more good news for gold) just to be able to keep their plants running and their people employed.

"To wealth through poverty" is the motto today. Countries want to devalue - Japan leads the way - and impoverish their people, so they can produce and sell more and be wealthy.

Gold payments kept the world in order in the 19th Century.
Gold payments chained the dragon of credit expansion, all over the world.

The Bretton Woods arrangements (1944) included the dollar "as good as gold" - a fatal flaw!

There is no painless way out of this terrible mess of worldwide massive investment in productive plant that should never have been installed, and would not have been installed had not the US had the privilege of paying for goods with money created out of thin air. The way out won't be nice. It will involve a worldwide collapse of production and trade and probably bloody wars, before all is in ruins and men begin to pick up their tools to rebuild again.

There is a saying that getting wealth is hard, but keeping it is an even harder job. Gold owners, think about it.

The GAB. Have a happy weekend!
Ten Bears
(01/09/2004; 23:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115022)
Old News About Fiat/Debt Money
If memory serves, history reveals that some congressman (perhaps Lindbergh) protested during the debate to establish the "federal" reserve in 1913� "If we need a banking bill, why not just have the treasury print the money and spend into existence rather borrow from bankers who do not have the money and create it from nothing in order to loan it to our government. Either way will require an income tax, and the bankers� proposal will allow them (the bankers) to collect interest on all government expenditures. We can eliminate that interest expense." We all know the outcome of that debate. The same or similar proposals have been advanced numerous times, particularly during the 1930's, however, to no avail.

One proposal advanced during the depression to eliminate the central bank without creating a catastrophic event entailed raising the fractional reserve banks reserve ratio to approximately one hundred percent (reducing the money supply) and to print treasury bills (greenbacks) to increase the money supply in amounts sufficient to neutralize the transaction and retire debt.

Of course, the political power of the central banking cartel was and still is such that no changes were made in those directions. Instead, the Glass-Stegal Act of 1933 was repealed during Clinton's term allowing banks free reign; additionally, the banks reserve ratios have been effectively reduced to zero allowing extreme expansion of money supply.

So what? Check out the interest on the national debt (www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdint.htm) and the total treasury gross tax collections (www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/data.exe/irssoi/grosstax1). As interest expense on the national debt increases relative to total tax revenues, those in power must find ways to increase tax revenue by expanding economic activities (interest rate cuts), or cutting federal (non-interest) expenses, discretionary spending, social security, social programs etc.
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 23:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115023)
Nixon's role in dollar's demise
http://www.moneyfiles.org/usapower.jpg@ GAB

Great post. I do not disagree in general. However, the timeline at this link and the volumes of literature we have explored here suggest that more likely, Nixon's action was but one event (although an important one) in a much larger theater of dollar domination and devaluation.

International bankers have been steering administrations and kingdoms with their financial manipulations for centuries. Politicians are smart cookies, but their forte is getting elected and mediating political action and compromises. They often work from incomplete and/or faulty data and analysis - leading them into what later look like real bonehead moves. Witness the Bay of Pigs, where JFK was maneuvered by Dulles and the "company" into a half-assed attempt to remove the very dictator the CIA had sponsored a couple years earlier in the Cuban revolution (sound familiar - Iraq watchers?).

Bankers certainly don't mind a little egg on the face of the politicians, as it keeps them in their place, and then they come back for more "advice".

Richard Nixon was a good foreign relations president, who didn't know beans about finance. I would bet his "finance advisors" scared him with the threat of De Gaulle taking all our "stash", so he thought there was no other option. And maybe by that time, there WAS no other option. Who knows, now?

So the bankers begin their government sponsored accumulation leading into the $850 peak at 16% prime rate, sell out to Joe Sixpack, and force another 20 year (accumulative-for them) bear until the steam engine explodes and they can sell out again. Yes - history rhymes!
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 23:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 115024)
Old News about FIAT
@ Ten Bears

Four words to describe why not:

Bankers
Politicians
Power
Greed
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 23:41:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115025)
Deficit Hits $126 Billion In Fiscal First Quarter
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1665-2004Jan8.htmlsnippit:

"By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 9, 2004; Page E01

The federal budget deficit reached $126 billion in the first three months of the 2004 fiscal year, as improving tax receipts were outpaced by rising federal spending, congressional auditors said this week.

The first quarter total puts the deficit on pace to top $500 billion and adds weight to increasingly insistent calls for more attention to the government's deteriorating fiscal health. Economists with the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the twin U.S. budget and trade deficits "pose significant risks for the rest of the world."

Goldilox:

Where DID I put that credit card? I'm not keeping up!
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 23:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115026)
Japan's FOREX reserves hit new record
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/65524/1/.htmlsnippit:

"TOKYO: Japan's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, hit a record high at the end of 2003 as it continued to buy dollars to cap the rising yen and promised more funds for such intervention.

Japan's foreign exchange reserves rose 29 billion dollars to 673.5 billion dollars at the end of December for a fourth consecutive monthly record, the finance ministry said.

"The biggest reason for the gain was (currency) market intervention," said ministry official Hiroko Inaoka.

Goldilox:

And they're going back for more. Now that's what I call a "line of credit". It's just not resurrecting the "dead cat" they're spending it on. Oops, I did it again. There goes Kittie off to bed in a huff.
mikal
(01/09/2004; 23:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 115027)
Eagles and Krugerrands fly to far away lands...
It's occurred to me that the timeline for the production of bullion coins worldwide is always a sporadic affair. That their commencement and end has usually been unexpected and abrupt. With so many commemorative issues to supplement the usual offerings, such as monkeys and heroes and statues and stars, they reach farther than ever, implying a future with
more permanent, annual coinage.
If true, a metallic circulating ruble for every country, never mind the purity, then the paper notes would need backing too, more than the present euro!
This would likely spell the end to gold and silver bullion Libertads, Eagles, Pandas, Brittanias, Maple Leafs, Kangaroos(Nuggets), Philharmonics, Krugerrands(Springboks) as we know them.
Which of these countries will make bullion minting obsolete first?
A) Australia? Under pressure from world economic crisis and competition from regional powers in Asia and the world?
B) U.S.? Decreeing that all treasury, central bank and certain in-ground precious metals be employed for "the common welfare" as backing for her currency and collatoral for her renegotiated debt payments?
C) Canada? Incensed by heavy-handed hoarding from Great Britain and U.S.A. and satiated with the Queen's portrait?
Persuaded to join the N.A.C.B.(North American Central Bank) and monetary system?
D) Mexico? Unable to stem the outflow of metal and natural resources to first world counries by any other means and/or prodded to join the new "dollar" system and the N.A.C.B.(North American Central Bank)?
E) China? Implimenting the next stage of a 50 year economic plan to build the economy and salvage the tottering banking system?
F) Austria? Recruited into a Euro-wide effort to stabilize
the crisis-shaken volatile euro by contributing more of their central bank reserves to the ECB?
G) Great Britain? Humiliated by the cratering demand for her stratospherically priced, limited-mintage, "Queen Elizabeth" issues, halts the Brittania coinage and offers the metal stock to the campaign to save the fledgling fiat euro?
H) South Africa? Joining one or other of her global allies for political and domestic advantage?
Goldilox
(01/09/2004; 23:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115028)
US set to back state control of Iraqi oil
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1118137,00.htmlsnippit:

"David Teather in New York
Thursday January 8, 2004
The Guardian

Officials are likely to recommend the creation of a state-run company to own and manage the Iraqi oil industry, shutting out foreign investment and countering, in part, allegations that the US-led invasion of the country was merely an oil grab."

Goldilox:

Now WHICH state might that be? Texas?
Denarius
(01/10/2004; 00:04:05 MDT - Msg ID: 115029)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Charts of the Week <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

This first week of the new year certainly provided more than enough squiggly lines to ponder. Hopefully, you too will post your favorite graphical indicators of this weeks action with your comments. Here are my selections, fwiw:

----------------------------------------------------------

Silver

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=w

Monday's rise due to Al & Ben speaking in San Diego?
Friday's rise due to the Shrub waxing about the moon?

Gold

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=w

I get the 'message' from Tuesday but who's it for?

Oil - Light Crude

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYMEX_CLG4&t=f&w=5&a=0&v=w

Does oil look like a leading indicator for silver to you?

USD Index

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=15&a=0&v=w

Support, such as it was, failed at 85.5; new support at 85.0 ?

Platinum

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPTUSDO&t=l&w=15&a=0&v=w

The rich man's gold makes almost a 5% move; getting toppy?

----------------------------------------------------------

Admin: please excuse any faux pas I may have committed
with this posting; I'm new at this but willing to learn.

All: if this seems like a good idea, post your comments and I will add, delete, modify what I can as you suggest. Searching for charts uncovers all sorts of good material I would never think of searching for otherwise.

I can find some charts THIS BIG if you want:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$usd,uu[d,a]dcolyyay[d19840606,20040606]

>>>>>>>> Got dollars? Too bad. Got gold? Get more! <<<<<<<<

>>>>>>>>>> Got silver? Good. You're keeping fit! <<<<<<<<<<

Goldilox: Now WHICH state might that be? Texas?
Denarius: Good one! That's the kind of zinger I appreciate.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/10/2004; 00:16:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115030)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


I will be away from the Daily Market Report desk for a few weeks plying my trade in the field. Still. I will post on the forum as time allows and as news in the precious metals breaks. (see the market report for details)

Jon H. Warner
Waverider
(01/10/2004; 00:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 115031)
Denarius
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s22179539]&disp=OI quite agree with you that we most likely will see the Gold:Silver ratio go to at least 60 and the 50's wouldn't suprise me abit. Here's a chart I posted last week - if you scroll down to 5.1 you'll see the Gold:Silver ratio - note that it should gravitate towards the median line (the red pitchfork handle). If Silver moves up again Monday disproportionately to Spot, then we should penetrate the 50 day MA, and WHOOAAA...look out below!

Rich...ya gotta be lovin' it!! And YES, all hands on deck!

Goldilox...enjoy all your contributions here but *man*, you're gunna break alota hearts next door! Cheers!

Waverider
mikal
(01/10/2004; 00:51:41 MDT - Msg ID: 115032)
Kangaroos and Springboks bound to far away lands...
It may be that the S. African mint or other bullion coins will be the first to cease production in the face of relentless demand, rapidly diminishing supply or price volatilty.
This condition feeds, and is fed by, the ongoing, stealth exit of rare and "bullion-related" precious, obsolete (formerly circulating and legal-tender) coinage of dozens of nations.
Gold, in fact, appears to be leading the CRB, oil, silver, etc. higher.
steady
(01/10/2004; 01:00:46 MDT - Msg ID: 115033)
folly .. Moria, Stultitia, Folly. the original
http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1509erasmus-folly.html just in case u missed it the first few times round!

ORATION: An Oration of Feigned Matter, spoken by Folly in her own Person

AT WHAT RATE soever the world talks of me (for I am not ignorant what ill report Folly has got, even among the most foolish), yet that I am that she, that only she, whose deity recreates both gods and men, even this is a sufficient argument, that I no sooner stepped up to speak to this full assembly than all your faces put on a kind of new and unwonted pleasantness. So suddenly have you cleared your brows, and with so frolic and hearty a laughter given me your applause, that in truth as many of you as I behold on every side of me seem to me no less than Homer's gods drunk with nectar and nepenthe; whereas before, you sat as lumpish and pensive as if you had come from consulting an oracle. And as it usually happens when the sun begins to show his beams, or when after a sharp winter the spring breathes afresh on the earth, all things immediately get a new face, new color, and recover as it were a certain kind of youth again: in like manner, by but beholding me you have in an instant gotten another kind of countenance; and so what the otherwise great rhetoricians with their tedious and long-studied orations can hardly effect, to wit, to remove the trouble of the mind, I have done it at once with my single look.

But if you ask me why I appear before you in this strange dress, be pleased to lend me your ears, and I'll tell you; not those ears, I mean, you carry to church, but abroad with you, such as you are wont to prick up to jugglers, fools, and buffoons, and such as our friend Midas once gave to Pan. For I am disposed awhile to play the sophist with you; not of their sort who nowadays boozle young men's heads with certain empty notions and curious trifles, yet teach them nothing but a more than womanish obstinacy of scolding: but I'll imitate those ancients who, that they might the better avoid that infamous appellation of sophi or wise, chose rather to be called sophists. Their business was to celebrate the praises of the gods and valiant men. And the like encomium shall you hear from me, but neither of Hercules nor Solon, but my own dear self, that is to say, Folly:

Nor do I esteem a rush that call it a foolish and insolent thing to praise one's self. Be it as foolish as they would make it, so they confess it proper: and what can be more than that Folly be her own trumpet? For who can set me out better than myself, unless perhaps I could be better known to another than to myself? Though yet I think it somewhat more modest than the general practice of our nobles and wise men who, throwing away all shame, hire some flattering orator or lying poet from whose mouth they may hear their praises, that is to say, mere lies; and yet, composing themselves with a seeming modesty, spread out their peacock's plumes and erect their crests, while this impudent flatterer equals a man of nothing to the gods and proposes him as an absolute pattern of all virtue that's wholly a stranger to it, sets out a pitiful jay in other's feathers, washes the blackamoor white, and lastly swells a gnat to an elephant.

Waverider
(01/10/2004; 01:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115034)
Black Blade
I remember when your consulting work a year or so ago finished and we were all so fortunate to have you contribute to the forum with the "Morning Blade", regular real-time updates on the markets, and news throughout the day...in fact it appeared as though you never slept! I am glad for you that again of late you have opportunity to apply your expertise and skills in the area that you love. Thanks for your generous sharing of wisdom, knowledge, and prescient views on a daily bases via the DMR - it's greatly appreciated. Safe travels Sir Black Blade! Cheers,
Waverider
CoBra(too)
(01/10/2004; 02:12:14 MDT - Msg ID: 115035)
As Snippet from the "Privateer"!
Awaiting Gold's REAL boom ...

"The TOP of Gold's previous bull market has NOT caused a correction in the present $US Gold price run. But as fast as Gold is advancing in $US terms, it is still lagging far below 2003 highs in terms of the currencies which are rising the fastest against the $US. We still await Gold's REAL boom - the point where it starts to rise against ALL paper currencies, not just the US Dollar. Stay tuned".

cb2 - As Japan's BOJ seems the only CB stemming the dollar flood, while only managing to avert an outright rout with incredible amounts of paper, most other CB's stand pat. When the pain gains momentum competitive devaluations will be seen as the only solution. The race to the bottom will be the ultima ratio for a system built on debt and delusion.


Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 02:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 115036)
Next Door?
@ LW:

you said, "Goldilox...enjoy all your contributions here but *man*, you're gunna break alota hearts next door! Cheers!"

Do you mean at a neighboring castle? I visit others to read their fare, but this has been my home page and I only post here - since about Jan 03.
Waverider
(01/10/2004; 02:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 115037)
Fed's pugnacious policies hurt economies
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA10Dj01.html"Alan Greenspan, chairman of US Federal Reserve Board, may be patting himself on the back a bit prematurely and undeservedly by claiming that the Fed correctly focused policies on trying to mitigate probable damage after the eventual bursting of the bubble of stock market speculation rather than taking measures to prevent the bubble itself."

Waverider: An excellent commentary from Henry Liu at The Asian Times - it needs a minute to download as it's abit lengthly.

Goldilox - thanks for the clarification...it then would be someone else using the same handle - please accept my apology.
pmurgsRSA
(01/10/2004; 02:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 115038)
Depending on the hidden level of collusion...
Bear with me here as I go far out on a limb.

Forget about the money for a moment and follow the power. Imagine China, Japan, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Iraq (oil), Libya (oil), Afghanistan, possibly Syria (conquered), possibly North Korea (conquered) with the USA leading (at least initially) forming as a power block. Imagine the rest of the world that does not follow them into debasing their currencies siding with the EU. The new USA power block continues, indefinitely to debase their currencies switching to digital dollars and no cash, thus making it hard to preserve wealth in these countries like under communism. By this time, these are the only strong economies left after the currency wars. All the rest have little or no export capacity and have suffered huge losses in their failed attempts to prevent fiat capital from fleeing the new power block to them and forcing their currencies to appreciate. Holding dollars that constantly become worthless due to their constant debasement means the rest of the world becomes unwilling to hold dollars and trade between them and the new superpower block ceases. The new super power block does not now have to pay it's debt to the rest of the world. It gets off scott free for years of consumption and the resulting economic growth. In the last century, it was the West verses the East, in the new century may it be the �New economy / New communism� (pure paper, no individuals owning assets) verses the old (gold and hard assets)?
mas
(01/10/2004; 05:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115039)
Privateer comments
The performance of the XGO this week is pretty conclusive evidence that Gold stock investors are still waiting for a Gold price rise in terms of ALL currencies, not just the $US, before they jump back into the market.
steady
(01/10/2004; 09:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115040)
golden vocabulary
pugnacious policies !
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 10:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115041)
West vs. East
@ pmurgsRSA

Although many would have us believe the last century was about West vs. East, it has really been North vs. South for a couple of centuries. Strong militaristic governments in the northern hemisphere have "competed" for the privilege of "administering" the resource rich south in their various forms of colonialism. Whether one talks free world or the old communist block, the issue has always been resource and market control. The west vs. east turmoil was a media smoke screen while hundreds of millions died in "internal" political and labor strife on both sides of the fence. Stalin and Mao were "cleansing" their Asian nations of "dissidents", South American students and labor activists were disappearing in huge numbers, and your own continent's power struggles were incredibly brutal. Whether by Marshall plan or Warsaw pact, the no/so mastery has been maintained to keep resources flowing north cheaply to fuel the industrial machine. The most important alliances of the 21st century may be the So American/Africa/China alliances, as the third world countries take a stab at maturing from colonial status into real nations. Japan may at some point have to decide whether to rejoin the third world as a partner or continue in the old world as a colony. Bankrupting themselves to "save" the dollar may make this decision even more imminent.

Call them radicals, but third world peoples are rebeling against the IMF-World Bank usury that "loans" them money in US$ for so-called development (squandered mostly on militaries to control them) and then manipulates their local currency into default over and over again, whilst annexing their resources to pay the debts. The current US$ devaluation is a new twist for everyone, as the previous century has always brought massive devaluations of local currencies against the US$. The most important decisions of this decade hinge on the smaller market's choices to debase their currencies once again in a "monkey see, monkey do" reaction to "save" the dollar reserve trade. Their only alternative, difficult at best, is to build healthier trading patterns amongst themselves and tell the IMF/WB "Steal from us no more", which is tantamount to colonial rebellion.

Sadly, the resource grabs that fueled WW's I and II are being repeated, and given military destruction capabilities of the automated variety, what evolves from them will probably NOT be pretty.
MK
(01/10/2004; 10:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115042)
Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Report
Jon will be away for several months on a drilling supervision. I wanted to post his final report here for the record as it lays out his expectations for the gold market in the weeks and months to come. Good luck to you, Jon, and we'll keep the fire burning for you here at USAGOLD. Thanks for the outstanding job you have done over the last several months with the Afternoon Gold Market Report. I think we will all look forward to your participation here at the forum.

________

Daily Market Report (January 10,2004)

I will be on hiatus for at least a couple of months as I have been hired to work on some geologic problems and supervise a drilling program for a major independent energy company. As I have repeatedly said in previous market reports and in the USAGOLD forum, there are fewer professionals (geologists, metallurgists, etc.) and technicians (engineers, mechanics, heavy equipment operators, blasters, etc) left in the United States any longer who are experienced in the exploration and exploitation of natural resources that provide Americans with the lifestyles that they have become accustomed to. I have worked in this particular region in previous years and am one of a handful of geoscientists left who have experience in this area. Of course much depends on the political will of Federal regulatory agencies that will determine the length and completion of these projects. In the meantime I will post information when I can in the forum concerning the precious metals and energy markets.

There are many changes coming to the financial markets and we are at the beginning of a new era. Already we see the US dollar devaluing at a nice clip. I would not be surprised to see the dollar fall by at least another 30-50% in spite of "competitive currency devaluation" or international currency market interventions. So far the dollar has fallen over 30% against the Euro in just one year. Our trade deficit is the largest in history and the current account imbalances just keep growing and accumulating unchecked. The international community has thrived on US debt while we have gone from being the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation. Since the dollar is the international reserve currency (for now) with foreign banks buying up dollars to balance their own currencies (many to extreme excess), these banks stand ready to dishoard dollars as the US currency loses value. Making the situation worse is that the US government is spending more and more like drunken sailors on shore leave. There are only two ways to pay for the old and new government programs, wars, and defense against terrorism and hopefully bring the dollar back into realistic valuations is either to raise taxes on Americans or to create more dollars. As the administration has been cutting taxes, they are more likely to fire up the printing presses further therefore devaluing the dollar. The stage is being set for inflation (more likely stagflation).

We have entered a new stage where we are in a secular bull market for hard assets. As long as price inflation exists (as it will for several years), gold, silver, platinum, oil and natural gas will make extraordinary gains. One thing is certain and that is inflation in paper currency (dollars, stocks, and bonds) is always followed by a surge in hard currency (precious metals and energy). Secular bull markets can last anywhere from 16 to 20 years on average and we have just come to the end of the secular bull in paper assets. Now the talk of the financial media and Wall Street is the new bull market (a secular bull market) in commodities (especially in energy, precious and base metals). Though investments can be made in energy, real estate, base and precious metals. The easiest to buy and hold for the average investor are the precious metals, and unless you have room for barrels of oil, underground storage for natural gas, or are ready for a glut in real estate, then that leaves precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum � bullion and numismatic coin) as the obvious investment choice for investors. That is where the staff at Centennial Precious Metals (USAGOLD) can help.


Jon H. Warner

21mabry
(01/10/2004; 11:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115043)
Goldilox
An ex girlfriend bought me tragedy and hope its a great book every one on this forum should have.The role of gold in history is dealt with extensively,but my goodness that is one huge book.I like to read and I have had it for several years but I am no where near through it.Thnx Goldie.21
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 11:11:36 MDT - Msg ID: 115045)
Good Luck BB
@ BB

Here's wishing you a healthy and profitable venture in the coming months. Remember, satellite internet connections are available, so you can check in on us whenever you have time. If this current venture is PM related, maybe you can post a picture of a couple of liberated nuggets to fuel our envy!!!

Good luck in all!

-G
Operative
(01/10/2004; 11:13:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115046)
@ Goldilox
You said, "It's just not resurrecting the "dead cat" they're spending it on..."

There have been so many "dead cat" bounces in recent times that I am now convinced it is the cat from a Stephen King novel called Pet Cemetry. Scary.
21mabry
(01/10/2004; 11:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115048)
Education
The link you posted Goldi got me thinking about how gold and other issues on this forum are viewed by the University I attend.Any time I have brought up issues either in class or in a term paper dealing with gold or conspiratorial views of history I have been ignored'shunned or given a lower grade than I usually get.I was told by a proffessor about a paper I wanted to write on the relationship of gold and opium and the fortunes made by the elite in the world from this trade,that this was not the kind of thing discussed in polite society.I honestly have come to believe that the truth has been the victim of our university system in this country.21
Denarius
(01/10/2004; 11:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115049)
Waverider (msg#: 115031)

Waverider (1/10/04; 00:39:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115031)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s22179539]&disp=O

Wow! Thanks for the link; I am now in either 'chart heaven' or total 'chart overload'.

Minor correction - I have no opinion on where the Au/Ag ratio is headed; my 50/1 ratio is just where acquisition was temporarily ended by the rapid price rises. It will change by swapping if/when the ratio goes above 80 or below 40. Maybe not.

Denarius
(01/10/2004; 11:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115050)
pmurgsRSA (115038) far out on a limb
pmurgsRSA (1/10/04; 02:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115038)
Depending on the hidden level of collusion...
Bear with me here as I go far out on a limb.

Not at all. At least not in this forum. Quite the contrary, I think you have drilled right to the core of the master plan.

Just today I heard part of a radio interview with the head of US-AID. It seems the US State Department is poised to raise their outlays to Five Billion Dollars of bait money to get all the poorer countries to tow the line in the new power block.

I would like to research this now but the weather finally broke and I must take advantage of it before the next winter storm blows through. Enjoy your summer. Later.

Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 11:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115051)
How to Identify a Bubble - Richebacher
snippit:

"It is, as a matter of fact, the central axiom of the Austrian school of economics that the movements in the price level can be a misleading guide to monetary policy. What crucially matters is the inflation of credit, exerting a much deeper and fundamental influence on the whole economy through distortions and dislocations in its whole demand and output structure.

From a policy perspective, to stress the key point, the decisive evil thing is the credit expansion that exceeds available domestic savings. That is the regular, cardinal culprit behind all dangerous economic and financial imbalances, and also behind all inflations. What the Greenspan Federal Reserve refuses to accept is that their beloved wealth-creation reflects incredibly dangerous inflation in the asset markets.

Putting it differently, in a balanced economy, credit expansion is fully matched by available domestic savings. This used to belong to the elementary knowledge of economists. Mr. Greenspan shocked us with his public remark that an asset bubble can only be recognized after it has burst. Outrageous credit inflation was the infallible and most spectacular hallmark of America's equity bubble in the late 1990s. But instead of feeding into the price indexes of goods and services, which continued to fall, it fed into soaring imports and soaring stock prices.

To repeat: All asset bubbles and bubble economies have their highly visible and also compelling trademark in exploding credit. The distinction between the two is important. An asset bubble simply reflects a rise in asset prices out of proportion to underlying yields. A bubble economy is an economy where soaring asset prices fuel a borrowing/spending binge that may be concentrated in real estate, business fixed investment or consumption."

Goldilox:

Dr. Kurt tells Sir AG to clean his glasses. No link as I found this at the neighbors', but Dr. Kurt can usually be read over at the Daily Reckoning.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 11:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 115052)
"Polite Society"
@21Maybry

The attitude that this cannot be discussed in "polite society" is why Ollie North had to conduct business from the White House "basement". Very few are courageous enough to discuss the arms/drug/gold/power collusion in "polite society". It's safer to pardon the participants, spank the Noriegas and Saddams of the world for overstepping their charter, and sweep it all under the rug as a "cost of doing business".

Before the internet, we had alternate news radio like World Watchers and Mae Brussels linking the connections, but most of them are gone. We are very fortunate to have this forum, as MK allows us to explore the ideas as they relate to gold/money, etc., even when we drift a little from main topic.

Universities get all their financial support from whom? A lot of them got spanked for allowing dissent to blossom on the campus during the Vietnam debacle. Resistance to repetition of that faux pax is great. Do a search on (former Attorney General) Ramsey Clark for the "other" side of the story. Assemble (cut and paste) both sides and you'll have truer view. Thanks to lessons learned in WWII, spin (propaganda) is rampant everywhere in the press, so caviat emptor. This may be because the universities graduate 10 marketing "spin" experts for every historian or journalist.

"Deep Throat" got it right - FOLLOW the MONEY!

-G
Merlinsen
(01/10/2004; 12:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 115053)
Comparing current gold with the late-1970s gold bull market
http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.aspVery interesting. On that base, if we project the time frame, we have a peak in ten months at a level of US$1000.
Belgian
(01/10/2004; 12:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115054)
Henry C K Liu ( Waverider)
Excellent analysis ! "Analysis" ...but no suggestions for problem-solving.
Why are we spending so much energy and time on " re-analysing ", again and again, the same old "systemic" problems, manifesting themselves under different appearences ? Is everybody afraid of the "real" solutions ?

Liu doesn't dare to conclude that there are growing "collusional" forces, becoming stronger by the day and evidenced by the abberational events, increasingly percepted as "normal".
A. Greenspan is an instrumental part of this collusional orchestra. The markets and Sir Alan are as J. Bond & Co...at her Majesty's (the dollar system) service. Not a conspiracy but a very firm collusion !

To hyper-focus on small parts of the Big picture (the dollar-world) is a guarantee for continuation...more of the same.

Another International Monetary System is on the order of the day ! That's why R. Mundell made some (very discrete) noise, recently !!!
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 13:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 115055)
Comparo
http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.asp@ Merlinsen

Great Post!

The trend is your friend!!!

(:^) Goldilox
Moegold
(01/10/2004; 13:59:54 MDT - Msg ID: 115056)
@Goldendome msg#11505 (Poor manns gold)
Re gold - silver ratio:

Having just reread Friedman's book Monetary Mischief, I'd like to restate something from the book that I had forgotten:
"From 1670 BC to 1873, the year in which the United States and France demonitized silver, the yearly average price of gold never rose above 16 times the corresponding price of silver. The lowest recorded price ratio is a trifle below 9 in about 50 BC. Remarkably the price ratio ranged between 9 and 16 for more than three millennia."

If silver ever becomes monitized, I guess we know the neighberhood it will live in!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/10/2004; 14:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115057)
Saturday Report Updated Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
21mabry
(01/10/2004; 14:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115058)
Metals
A question to the long time metal investors in the forum or to any one else.Has anyone based there investment strategy on trading the gold silver ratio to increase their positions?If so have you been sucessful how do you handle the commissions.With the gold silver ratio dropping this could be a strategy one could use?21
Great Albino Bat
(01/10/2004; 15:09:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115059)
The vibes I'm getting....

Here's old GAB in his cave and listening to what is being said at other forums - which we will not mention.

What comes across is a very strong sense of outrage at the way the US is being run; very strong remarks regarding the ineptitude of Pres. Bush; direct allegations of treason on his part.

Storm signals, folks! The sea is blackening, the wind is picking up, we have now 40 kn. blowing, the wave crests are breaking occasionally. Low scud blows across the sky, black clouds piling up behind.

Time to don your golden lifejackets, and hope and pray for the best, for we are entering a severe storm. Things are going to get very nasty.

The GAB has not seen such expressions of bitterness ever in his life. There are a lot of people in the U.S. who are tee'd off to the max, very angry. Not seen before.

Buy your gold and keep a low profile.

The GAB
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 15:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115061)
Metals
@21Mabry

Rather than play one metal against the other, just figure out a reasonable mix of the two. The are rising together.

I think this applies to both investing and storage, but the selected ratio might not be equivalent for both purposes.

As far as equities, I look for multiple metal exposures, as well. (Au+Ag, Au+Cu, Pt, Sn, Zn).

Not sure this answers your question, but that's what I have done. The ratios are just a personal arbitrary choice.
TownCrier
(01/10/2004; 15:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 115062)
Goldilox -- "� 2004 Alex Wallenwein"
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/0110.htmlYou didn't explicitly indicate that you had secured the author's permission to republish in full, so out of respect for that intellectual property I removed the post. How about providing a key excerpt instead?

Such as:

The Stealth-Bomber Currency
by Alex Wallenwein, Editor & Publisher
The Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor
January 10, 2004

"...any modern fiat system: without constant supervision and "fine-tuning" by monetary authorities, those systems would crash instantaneously. The only real advantage they carry is that they give their wielders the power to reshape human society in their own image - without humanity ever fully realizing what is happening to it.

"In all fairness, it must be said that Mundell understands gold as few others do. He fully appreciates the role gold played during the days of the gold standard, and even angles for "a role" for gold in his concept of a global currency. What's more, he wants to name his new brainchild "Intor" - borrowed from the words "International" and "Or" - the French word for gold. But at no point does he make an argument that gold (and silver) themselves could be used as money again. At no point does he argue against a discontinuation of this disastrous experiment in money-creation that we call fractional reserve banking.

"Mundell is the originator of a concept called "optimum currency areas" - of which the euro is the first viable exponent. He is planning for two more such "optimum" areas (the US/western hemisphere and Asia) which he later wants to morph into one single, world-wide currency system.

"Any global currency other than physical gold/silver (and maybe copper) will develop along the lines of the euro: a currency union based on first economic and then progressive political union which eliminates national borders and national sovereignty."

(or whatever particular section you felt to be key)

----see url for full text----

Not only does it conform with the principle of copyright, it saves space, too!

R.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 15:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 115063)
Vibes
@ GAB

When I listen to the media, they all make jokes about the "seven dwarf" candidates and Dean's lack of "mainstream" experience. Having watched a number of elections in my long years, non-mainstream candidates are not interesting when satisfaction levels are high. I think people are remembering all that transpired after the "silent majority" laughed off anti-Vietnam candidates. . .candidate assassinations, carpet bombing, presidential resignation, riots in US cities, inflation skyrocketed - it got ugly, and gold went to $850.

Every possible spin twist is being utilized to convince Joe SixPack that everything is under control and change is not required. Any sign of uncontrolled return of the SM Bear, collapse of debtville, or resumption of terrorist activity could really shake up the dressing on our little tossed salad.

Even the growth of interest in PMs, itself, portends general growth in fear levels. Ridge is even trying to control this with his little color chart. "People, this week you need to scared ORANGE!"

When the leaves are rustling, the storm may be brewing, to repeat your analogy.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 15:45:20 MDT - Msg ID: 115064)
Wallenwein
No problem, Randy. I included their copyright message at the end, but you know more about that stuff than I do. I just couldn't find any part I liked better than the whole message.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 15:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 115065)
Wallenwein article
"Any world-currency system short of actual bimetallism or trimetallism requires a breakdown of borders and sovereignty. Such a system would be inherently unstable and would require the constant supervision and "fine-tuning" of a supranational authority - and such an authority simply cannot function among nations with fully intact borders.

Like the stealth-bomber, a global currency of the kind�Mundell and his ilk propose is primarily designed - not to be inherently stable in its operation, but to avoid detection of its true aims - until it is ready to drop its payload.

That "payload" is the planned political world union. The result is tyranny - and the total destruction of individual freedom.

Your freedom!"

Goldilox:

Actually, I like these paragraphs the best, but then, I am somewhat of a sensationalist- as if you didn't know!
CoBra(too)
(01/10/2004; 16:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 115066)
@ BB
Good luck in all your ventures and many thanks for your great work, Jon.
Hope you'll find the time to update us all on your thoughts in between. Your excellent DMR's will be sorely missed by all of us and more.
... and we'll try to heed your advice - best and Kudos to you, may I say friend ... cb2

CoBra(too)
(01/10/2004; 17:11:26 MDT - Msg ID: 115067)
http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplh&ArticleId=124318
It seems a new guy on the economic block of IHT was needed to see, well at least, that there may be a problem with the rapid decline of the global reserve dollar.

Even if his conclusions seem a bit out of whack, only to avoid lopsided, re the �, it is already a global problem. And what's more it is becoming a systemic problem ever more.

A problem of the global currency system, based on the dollar standard. A standard getting more and more debased by the powers who have been responsible to impress it on the world in first place. IMF and WB have been eager collators to the system - can you think scam - sinking numerous productive countries into debt and despair, while the real offenders prospered by their hegemonial privilege of printing of same.

As no one knows when the pain level of counter-action is reached - vis a vis the dollar depreciation, a true and blue Snow job - in any currency, I for one am patiently waiting for the gold bull to manifest in all and every paper currency.
cb2

PS: Looking forward to listen to O'Neil's broadcast tomorrow.

JavaMan
(01/10/2004; 18:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 115068)
On Wallenwein's article�


While this dated but still relevant perspective below will, no doubt, sound like heresy of the highest order to friends of the Euro, it is, none the less, a view that causes me to wonder what all the enthusiasm for yet another fiat currency is all about.

"For a half-century, the Keynesians have harbored a Dream. They have long dreamed of a world without gold, a world rid of any restrictions upon their desire to spend and spend, inflate and inflate, elect and elect. They have achieved a world where governments and Central Banks are free to inflate without suffering the limits and restrictions of the gold standard. But they still chafe at the fact that, although national governments are free to inflate and print money, they yet find themselves limited by depreciation of their currency. If Italy, for example, issues a great many lira, the lira will depreciate in terms of other currencies, and Italians will find the prices of their imports and of foreign resources skyrocketing.

What the Keynesians have dreamed of, then, is a world with one fiat currency, the issues of that paper currency being generated and controlled by one World Central Bank. What you call the new currency unit doesn't really matter: Keynes called his proposed unit at the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944, the "bancor"; Harry Dexter White, the U.S. Treasury negotiator at that time, called his proposed money the "unita"; and the London Economist has dubbed its suggested new world money the "phoenix." Fiat money by any name smells as sour.

A tempting opportunity for mischief has been offered the Keynesians by the coming of the European Community in 1992. The Keynesians, led by now Secretary of State James Baker, have been pushing for a new currency unit for this United Europe, to be issued by a European-wide Central Bank. This would not only mean an international economic government for Europe, it would also mean that it would become relatively easy for the post-1992 European Central Bank to become coordinated with the Central Banks of the United States and Japan, and to segue without too much trouble to the long-cherished goal of the World Central Bank and world currency unit.

Inflationist European countries, such as Italy and France, are eager for the coordinated European-wide inflation that a regional Central Bank would bring about. Hard-money countries such as West Germany, however, are highly critical of inflationary schemes. You would expect Germany, therefore, to resist these Europeanist demands; so why don't they? The problem is that, ever since World War II, the United States has had enormous political leverage upon West Germany and the United States and its Keynesian foreign secretary Baker have been pushing hard for European monetary unity. Only Great Britain, happily, has been throwing a monkey-wrench into these Keynesian proceedings. Hard-money oriented, and wary of infringements on its sovereignty--and also influenced by Monetarist adviser Sir Alan Wakers--Britain might just succeed in blocking the European Central Bank indefinitely.

At best, the Keynesian Dream is a long shot. It is always possible that, not only British opposition, but also the ordinary and numerous frictions between sovereign nations will insure that the Dream will never be achieved. It would be heartening, however, if principled opposition to the Dream could also be mounted. For what the Keynesians want is no less than an internationally coordinated and controlled world-wide, paper-money inflation, a fine-tuned inflation that would proceed unchecked upon its merry way until, whoops!, it landed the entire world smack into the middle of the untold horrors of global runaway hyperinflation."

Murray N. Rothbard � Making Economic Sense (1995)


Here's a great one-liner to come away with:

"Fiat money by any name smells as sour."

Hah! I love it. Gee Mr. Rothbard, tell us how you REALLY feel�


javaman


Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 18:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115069)
UK Personal debt 'doubled since 1998'
"It is, however, certain that the future growth of the consumer credit market will struggle to match the levels exhibited in recent years.http://money.guardian.co.uk/creditanddebt/debt/story/0,1456,1119589,00.htmlsnippit:

"Unsecured borrowing soared by almost a third during 2003, research showed today, with personal debt among adults in the UK now averaging �4,426.

According to a report released today by market analyst Datamonitor, levels of unsecured debt levels (that is, money owed on credit cards, loans and overdrafts) have almost doubled since 1998 and have risen by more than �1,000 since 2002, when the figure was �3,383.

The group suggested that low interest rates, high levels of employment and soaring house prices had lead to the surge in consumer confidence which has resulted in people in the UK now owing collectively �175.6bn, with new lending during the year breaking through the �200bn mark for the first time.

However, despite the astronomical figures, Datamonitor advised that while the outlook for the consumer credit market remained largely positive, the golden age of borrowing was finally coming to an end. It estimates that the average unsecured debt will grow to just �5,741 by 2008, an increase of only �263 a year during the next five years."

Goldlox:

Brits have been availing themselves of cheap money, as well.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 18:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115070)
Repaired Link to UK credit stiry
http://money.guardian.co.uk/creditanddebt/debt/story/0,1456,1119589,00.htmlsorry!
Dollar Bill
(01/10/2004; 19:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115071)
*>*
Wallenwien again,
And why would Baker and the US at that time want a euro? I am suspicious that the reason given, global currency, is the fake front of any US involvement. I am sure that the US never wanted to give up to a global control group, more likely, with the cold war changing, the US had a couple reasons for being pro euro. To unite europe in a group, tying them together helps provide a barrier to possible Russian future ideas. Also, it must help the US to deal with one euro as opposed to many currencies? Did Germany have a shot at being the reserve currency if its leaders were smarter? Was the US looking for some counterweight help when the Yen was looking mighty? The US must have had some US centric reason for helping the birth of the Euro.
The US idea, is guess would be to keep being reserve currency forever. Make noises indicating whatever helps BS its opponents, but fake fronts? Fake moves? definately.
Especially during the Bush 1 presidency. Bush 1 was seemingly a wimp to hear him speak, but he was very crafty and smart. And he didnt have a one world utopian lets share mindset.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 19:15:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115072)
US Envoy: Afghan Reconstruction To Cost Billions
http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M01/D08/1073587862178.htmlsnippit:

"WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad warned Thursday that it will take billions of dollars over several years to rebuild that war-shattered country.


"It will cost a lot. It won't be cheap. But I'm not at this point in a position to give you exact figures. But it will take several years and billions of dollars to get this country to stand on its feet," Khalilzad said.


Khalilzad briefed reporters while in Washington.


In his $87 billion emergency spending bill on Iraqi and Afghanistan military and reconstruction operations, President George W. Bush devoted only a small fraction to rebuilding Afghanistan."

Goldilox:

This annexation and reconstruction effort is just like a country-western song -
"Faster horses, older whiskey, younger women, and MORE MONEY!"
Dollar Bill
(01/10/2004; 19:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 115073)
*>*
The US wanted to insure that the new Russia, the emerging free Russia, didnt align with Germany in a currency block?
Russia with the resources, If some european leaders had broken free of thier cold war thinking and thought more nationalistic, there must have been some nightmare scenarios that the US govt must have thought of.
The leaders of the 80's were chatty and cooperative, someone must have known that would not last. Look at what happened despite all the cooperation, chirac and germany in fact decided to bond with hussien and russia in a mad gamble to enrich themselves. Against the US. Previous best allies. Things change on a dime, that utopian global currency idea is a university pipe dream. If the US was for the euro, it was not for some angelic reason.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 19:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 115074)
Bush I
@ Dollar Bill


your post:

"Bush 1 was seemingly a wimp to hear him speak, but he was very crafty and smart. And he didn't have a one world utopian let's share mindset"

Bush the Elder was CIA Director (read: National Security Council) before serving as Reagan's Veep. His teams waged covert war all over South America under the cover of "drug enforcement", including the assassination of Chile's Salvador Allende, who threatened to trade with the Soviet block if the IMF would not leave Chile. They replaced him with General Pinochet, the butcher of South America.

Certainly not a let's share ANYTHING mindset!
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 19:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 115075)
Fr & De
@ Dollar Bill

Fr and De "aligned" with Russia and Iraq after 1998 when the UN sanctions allowed the trade of oil for Euros, long before GWB's recent invasion plans. There was no economic reason for them to support the invasion, as the infrastructure of the Iraqi oil business was already theirs. From their point of view, the US invasion was more about taking the Euro oil concessions away as any political mumbo jumbo.They weren't supporting Saddam - they were scrambling to save their oil supply.

They really didn't grock our great demonization of Saddam. After all, Reagan-Bush-Rumsfeld admin called him their answer to the Ayatollah, the "great liberator of Islam". Remember "Give 'em Hell Ollie" illegally selling him arms and then getting pardoned by Ronnie?

Follow the oil and gold money - politics is only an entertaining illusion.

-G
Denarius
(01/10/2004; 20:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115076)
@Merlinsen (msg#: 115053) - POG Comparison
http://bullandbearwise.com/GoldOverlayChart.asp
Merlinsen (1/10/04; 12:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 115053)
Comparing current gold with the late-1970s gold bull market

What everyone seems to be forgetting is that the dollar has been inflated through all the intervening years. All such chart comparisons should slope the plotted line to show this. Perhaps an example.

To account for REAL currency inflation of the dollar over the last fifty years I found the construction cost of a house built in 1953 and the sale price of that same house in 2003. Until it sold it was occupied by the original owners. It was truly representative and ordinary in every way. No complications from adding a swiming pool or anything. The neighborhood was in the same economic strata all those years. In short, it was the perfect example for my calculation - since houses contain such a wide variety of materials and labor that are representative of the economy in general.

Bottom line: Sale Price / Constr. Price = 33 times.

As a confirmation, the new owners' annual salaries figured out to be thirty-something times the original owner's salary. Notice that two salaries are required today for the same house / living standard as fifty years ago. I knew when I came across this info last year it would come in handy some day. Well, here we are.

So, if gold was $35/oz back then it should have been $35 X 33 = $1155/oz last year just on the basis of currency inflation. I guess it is difficult to appreciate the fact that what we refer to today as 'dollars' are in reality 1950s three-cent-papers. (That is why I paid $1.25 for a nickel candy bar the other day.) It's that simple when you do the math. The difficult part is accepting these numbers into your consciousness. That takes a while.

So, how does that $1000 POG look now? Pretty conservative, wouldn't you say?

Another way to look at it is that last year's price of $350/oz is only 10 times the $35/oz from yesteryear instead of the 33 times = $1155/oz it should have been in 2003.

So what's wrong with that POG? You think some one was suppressing the price or something!

>>>>>>>>> Got Gold? Good. Get More. It's Cheap. <<<<<<<<<<
>>>>>>>> (and they're still taking paper for it) <<<<<<<<<

Denarius
(01/10/2004; 20:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 115077)
@21mabry (msg#: 115058) - PM Swaps

21mabry (1/10/04; 14:48:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115058)
Has anyone based there investment strategy on trading the gold silver ratio to increase their positions?

Perhaps I don't understand the concept of "... basing their investment strategy on trading ..." other than sector changing in equities. With all metals and other commodities rising in unison I see no sector differentials to profit from. (I am surprised this subject hasn't been covered at length in prior posts.) Here is related info from an earlier post of mine.

Denarius (1/10/04; 11:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115049)
..... Minor correction - I have no opinion on where the Au/Ag ratio is headed; my 50/1 ratio is just where acquisition was temporarily ended by the rapid price rises. It will change by swapping if/when the ratio goes above 80 or below 40. Maybe not. .....

I should add that I have done only one swap of gold for silver when there was a large differential i.e. >80. There was a second opportunity to do that last year but I decided it was too risky that time. I had the worry that we were on the 'moon shot' then. The commissions/markups were gladly paid since they were very low. Does that help?
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 20:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 115078)
POG Comparo
Thanks Denarius:

We've brushed that subject a couple times past, but yours was the clearest comparison. I remember buying my first house for in 1979 for $52K, right during a Silicon Valley 40% price appreciation. That house is about $450K now (2BR, 1 BA, 1100Sq Ft), about 20X its price in the pre-Intel 1970's. that probably fits your 33X for the 50's OK.

-G
Dollar Bill
(01/10/2004; 21:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 115079)
*>*
China.."A random inspection of 152 mainland enterprises by the Ministry of Finance has found that every one of them falsified their accounts.
Some of the worst abuses were reported at a dozen privately run companies.
The probe, conducted last year on reporting for the 2002 fiscal year as part of a crackdown, had revealed falsified assets totalling 8.58 billion yuan on the companies' books, the finance ministry said."
The paper world is so untrustable.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/10/2004; 21:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115080)
Prospective Clients: Enter the market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Dollar Bill
(01/10/2004; 21:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 115081)
*>*
Sir Goldilox, "Fr and De "aligned" with Russia and Iraq after 1998 when the UN sanctions allowed the trade of oil for Euros, long before GWB's recent invasion plans."
I do believe the france iraq connection goes back quite a ways futher. Chirac and saddam go back till at least the 80's. Letting the oil trade in euros in 98 was the price the us had to pay to get the french and german un cooperation to extend the iraq embargo. Not saying that they were wrong to try to help themselves, just that alliances seem to be based solely on benefit rather than a drive toward a cooperative one world govt. And the un noise about "unilateral action" is a false front by them when they themselves are not targeting a global one govt. It is just a handy front to use against thier opponent.

Which is good news actually, because I share your concerns about what that one world govt motives are and how it would affect our liberties. Hence my posting in response to your posts.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 22:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115082)
FR and DE
Yeah, we agree on much of it. Thanks for the extra history.

Follow The Money!
Dollar Bill
(01/10/2004; 23:22:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115084)
*>*
Sir Denarius, the line "There are a lot of people in the U.S. who are tee'd off to the max, very angry."
Made me think, hmmm, I dont think they are teed off to the max. We shall see the max, but I think it will be when the financial world upends in some way and the societies find themselves way out on a limb as that is where we really are.
Spoiled? oh yes, impatient? yup, nuts, you bet. Blissfully papered over? Correct again. When that fails, well then we will see max.
It always seems attractive, that impulse for heroics, a former poster here seemed most pleased that those around him viewed him with "awe and intense respect", but as it doesnt satisfy him, heroic radicalism qouted in your post also wont find satisfaction.
Reading revelations and forums with angry posters will darken your day. It is actually sunny. Our dilemmas are hair raiseing and annoyingly human, but sunny. It is a heaven hell mix, a blend... it is fun to paint it black and shoot at it, but on closer inspection, turns out to be different than we first thought.
Goldilox
(01/10/2004; 23:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 115085)
Bush Plans To Call for Settlement On Moon
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2311-2004Jan9.htmlYep, that's how high the POG is going!

"To the Moon, Alice."
mikal
(01/11/2004; 00:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 115086)
Time warping the precious metals
Strange happenings in the world today including growing Bush criticism. Tomorrow Paul O'Neil speaks again if the event proceeds according to plan, without his suicide or an unfortunate accident or untimely natural or manmade disaster.
Rolling Stone magazine's latest cover headlines a story about "The Bush Family Empire Revealed".
Popular Mechanics magazine latest(February) cover has a large landed UFO and the story title(paraphrased): "What is planned for when UFO's land."
I was only able to quickly skim the contents and found that there ARE elaborate plans to deal with the craft and the aliens- quarantine, decontamination, and more! Magazine questioned what other plans the gov't might have.
Getting stranger than fiction out there.
Perhaps Bush will not serve out the full term or be induced to declare Force Majeur.
But the space program is a boost to certain high tech industries, where gold and silver will be in even greater demand as a key component in shields, sensors, suits, custom circuitry, plating, optics, and many other space-exclusive applications. (The Gold Institute and The Silver Institute both offer detailed internet lists of most of the industrial applications of Au and Ag.). Modern weapons manufacture relies especially heavily on silver, titanium and other precious and base metals.
But can anyone forecast the enormous appetite those ET's will have for the shiniest metals?
Profit Next Quarter
(01/11/2004; 01:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115087)
Education and Polite Society
A University education has always been a grooming venue to prepare children of the elite to enter public life or a professional enterprise. Traditionally, the University education was designed for the offspring of the idle rich to promote industry in those that need not work. In contemporary times, its primary purpose has been to occupy youth in a wide socioeconomic range for an intermediate period prior to their becoming part of the working poor. A University degree these days is equivalent to a high school diploma and a most jobs out of college will not supply a living wage. That is the objective truth.
However, Truth is a whore who serves one with the greatest Power exemplified by money. When you dare to affront Truth you undermine the bastion of power (the University) and the elites who support it. Do not expect comfort in this situation from those who worship the status quo and perpetuate myths to support their pillaging of society.
I had a Professor who was shocked when I said that I believed history was written by the powerful in society. I also faced the retribution of Professors who refused to entertain academic debate on course material. Whoever pays the piper calls the tune and if you want to succeed in academia you must play their game.
If you are searching for objective truth and seek wisdom, you must travel alone and tap sources such as this forum, while trying to keep an open mind. It is a bitter revelation to escape the matrix of propaganda and deceit spewed out by the powers that be. Gold is not alone in being maligned to distort the objective truth. Gold is real and its worth can be verified unlike bank promissary notes. We are all living in a world of illusion. You have just begun to gain sight in this land of the blind. Welcome.


Still waiting to -

Profit Next Quarter
steady
(01/11/2004; 05:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115088)
hope SPRINGING eteranal for gold bugs!
open your eyes, conceptualize, gold will continue to rize,
trade good for the prize, fiat to money yep that trade is sweeter than honey and aint no one here going to call u a dummy, rain or shine toe the gold and silver line, day or night just be right and sit tight
with that hoard raerly will you be board.


kilo, if its all relative then, then is time relative to, cause you know how they say time is money, then money is time and time is in money but money isnt in time and how they have been cutting intrest rates so in essence arent they really trying to force money out of time? and there is no forcing time since time just is and its unit of account, the second cant be forced or created, so it appears that in order to cheat time derivatives where created, but since time cant be forced and there fore money cant be forced from time, but time can be forced from money as money is jut a medium of exchange , but time is not a medium of exchange it just is and time can not be forced from the earth. gold and silver are part of the earth so money can not be forced from gold and silver cause they are timeless, perpetual unless consumed,
so if money is relative to everyting its relative to time most of all. you see how they are tryng to force time via the computer micro chip advances in time, as time and speed are all anyone wants to know in the computer world. to speed things up to a ffaster pace in order to flip the debt quicker, there profit stream needs to run as fast as it can, problem is they are out of time as the second can not be forced to go any fast or slower, , they can not strectch it or condense it so there , intreate rate cuts wont have anny effect as there just really , isnt enough time for it to occur in.

so everyone just needs to stop racing time , rather enjoy the time given to you, your time cause see if u are teh bankers bitch, the negative unit of account who has leveraged there time forward at a fixed amount of fiat dollars but that same time u leveraged forward is costing you (intrest) so u are actually losing time (money) cause when u aint on the clock cutting your time, time is taking your money. so time is moeny and u got neither just a pile of papers the banks say you owe us more of. now dig this , To have time u must be undebited unfrettered of the debt chains that not only bind you but fix your revenue stream and take your time out away from you and give it to the bankers at a certin fixed amount .
so in a way it is all relative to positive and negative revenue stream flows> which way does yor stream flow, forward in time, giving yourself positive revenue streams( gold and silver acquisitons, real wealth getters, along with food, water and the most precious of all commodities, time! Seems that everyone wrongly assumes is free , it isnt cause of intrest and debt.) or does your stream act negative and flow backwards in time to the bankers liar where they wait for u to lose time & lose the ability to look forward and percieve world events . They are able to manipulate you as u look backwards over your shoulder rather than looking forward and extrapolating what is coming in the future by using your time wisley instead of running around like a chicken with its head cut off spinning your whells in a world of fiat.


kilo i cant..... wait a second, i can, yet, im having difficulty understanding that not even for a second do those nations( BURPeeeeee. opps escuse me, dat food for thought is still working its way thru me) that are printing and selling the heck out of there currency to by the dollar( who is buying all those yens?) that not even for one second do they gain a competitive advantge in being able to by gold, ah heck forget it its all relative cuase its all paper anyway right? everytime i start down this road i just end up with more questions than answers. back latter after i clarify and concnetrate my position on the effects of nations paper printing fiat script so they can buy other countries curency and other stellar matters you brought up.

got anymore golden nuggets off the top of your head that may stimulate my mind into comprehension?
steady
(01/11/2004; 06:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115089)
delusioNEM (lat) < deludere
delusion.
have you ever been deluded?
why are you acting so delusional?
the banks delusionary practices are self-defeating!
Belgian
(01/11/2004; 06:55:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115090)
POG comparo
Gold as the commodity in dollar, used to (paper)trade at a 100$/Oz less than Platinum, for quite some time. Today POG=426$ and Pt=845$ ! Nothing wrong with the commodity (industrial metal) Platinum, but...something seriously happening with the confetti pricing of Gold, the Wealth metal !

Gold isn't even allowed to act as a commodity anymore !!!
This is a very serious matter and extremely significant.
The Gold (paper-price) dominators (CBs) have taken away the commodity (industrial) aspect of Gold and now focus entirely on the monetary and wealth aspects of Gold. The goldminers had / have to comply with this change / changing Gold-concept, or face repercussions. Less Gold for jewelry and more Gold for oil and the future oil-currency.
The Invisible Hand
(01/11/2004; 07:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 115091)
O�Neill is talking
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htmSNIP:
When the corporate scandals rocked Wall Street O�Neill and Alan Greenspan devised a plan to make CEOs accountable. Bush went with a more modest plan because "the corporate crowd," as O�Neill calls it in the book, complained loudly and Bush could not buck that constituency. "The biggest difference between then and now," O�Neill tells Suskind about his two previous tours in Washington, "is that our group was mostly about evidence and analysis, and Karl [Rove], Dick [Cheney], Karen [Hughes] and the gang seemed to be mostly about politics. It's a huge distinction."
Melting Pot
(01/11/2004; 07:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 115092)
NICEISM
Nice-ism n. tendency, more or less socially codified, to approach reality in terms of whether others behave cordially; tyranny of decorum which disallows thinking or actingfor oneself; mode of interaction based upon the above absence of critical judgement or autonomy.

All of us prefer what is friendly, sincere, pleasant-nice. But in an immiserated world of pervasive and real crisis, which should be causing all of us to radically reassess everything, the nice can be the false.

The face of domination is often a smiling one, a cultured one. Auschwitz comes to mind, with its managers who enjoyed their Goethe and Mozart. Similarly, it was not evil-looking monsters who built the A-bomb but nice liberal intellectuals. Ditto regarding those who are computerizing
life and those who in other ways are the mainstays of participation in this rotting order, just as it is the nice businessperson (self-managed or otherwise) who is the backbone of a cruel work-and-shop existence by concealing it's real horrors.

Cases of niceism include the peaceniks, whose ethic of niceness puts them-again and again and again-in stupid ritualized, no-win situations, those Earth First'ers who refuse to confront the thorouhly reprehensible ideology at the top of "their" organization, and Fifth Estate, whose
highly important contributions now seem to be in danger of an eclipse by liberalism. All the single-issue causes, from ecologism to feminism, and all the militancy in their service, are only ways of evading the necessity of a qualitative break with more than just the excesses of the
system.

The nice as the perfect enemy of tactical or analytical thinking: Be agreeable; don't let having radical ideas make waves in your personal behavior. Accept the pre-packaged methods and limits of the daily strangulation. Ingrained deference, the conditioned response to "play by the rules"-authority's rules-this is the real Fifth Column, the one
within us.

In the context of a mauled social life that demands the drastic as a minimum response toward health, niceism becomes more and more infantile, conformist and dangerous. It cannot grant joy, only more routine and isolation. The pleasure of authenticity exists only against the grain of
society. Niceism keeps us all in our places, confusedly reproducing all that we supposedly abhor. Let's stop being nice to this nightmare and all who would keep us in it.

-Zerzan
Melting Pot
(01/11/2004; 09:10:20 MDT - Msg ID: 115093)
Lucky Luciano: "I realized I'd joined the wrong mob'"
http://w3.trib.com/~fredj/ney.htmlRichard Ney on the Role of the Specialist

"The story is told that after he had been deported to Italy, Lucky Luciano granted an interview in which he described a visit to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. When the operations of floor specialists had been explained to him, he said, 'A terrible thing happened. I realized I'd joined the wrong mob'" (1Ney, 8).

The New York Stock Exchange is not an auction market (2Ney, 86), though many investors still hold onto that image. It is a rigged market. Volume is an effect of price. Prices are controlled absolutely by the specialists, the 'market makers' in individual stocks. It was this discovery that led Mr. Ney to eventually give us small investors a priceless gift: enlightenment.

The specialist is part of a system. First, he is part of that rare fraternity of men who are all specialists in an exchange. It is a small private club, to whose membership one can only be born. The specialists of the Dow 30 exhibit the spirit of 'all for one, and one for all'. If one of the 30 is having problems, the other 29 wait for him, before they move onto their next agreed upon campaign (2Ney, 172). The rest of the specialists take their lead from watching the Dow 30.

But the system is more extensive and more powerful than just the specialists. The specialists are the heart of the exchange. The exchange, in turn, has practical control of the major corporations, banks, insurance companies, and brokerage houses in this country. These, in turn, influence news reporting and the regulatory agencies.

End Snip:

Very interesting article that uncovers the rigging of the markets. This just adds another reason and dimension to the ownership and possession of physical gold and silver.

R Powell
(01/11/2004; 09:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115094)
Black Blade......!!!
I just caught up on my weekend forum reading and your message from yesterday.

I sincerely hope that you've entered into a potentially profitable venture in which success will fully compensate you for your knowledge and labors. Further, it would be even nicer if what you've undertaken for work will fill your time with the "doing" of that which you enjoy.

Employment, for most, is a reality in this life that provides those necessities that we require and some frills to entertain us. Fortunate is the worker who profits from that which "interests" him.

Have a good time, you will be sorely missed. We will expect some entertaining and informative stories of this adventure upon your return. Be safe.
Rich
Goldilox
(01/11/2004; 10:38:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115095)
Out-of-print Gems
http://www.alibris.com/search/search.cfm?S=RNot meant to be advertising, but I have found lots of the OOP volumes mentioned on this site (i.e. Wall St Jungle) on the above website, where both used book dealers and private collectors offer hard to find oldies but goodies.

I know I'm a little over the line here, but I hope Randy can agree that the site also has literary reference value for those of us in the "learning mode".
Chris Powell
(01/11/2004; 12:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 115096)
Latest GATA dispatch
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1831Murphy's 'Midas' commentary for Jan. 9 posted in
the clear, and Bundesbank president tries to spook
gold again.


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Operative
(01/11/2004; 13:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115097)
Payday Soon?
http://w3.trib.com/~fredj/index.shtml#watch
Snip:

"Joe Duarte, a financial author and online strategist at www.joe-duarte.com, tracks oil. His latest: "The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and Iraq are seriously planning the formation of a state run oil company. The implications for international oil companies are negative, since many of them, especially U.S. companies, were expecting to eventually set up shop in Iraq. But a closer look at the international oil situation suggests that the advantage will go to Libya. The two companies with the closest ties to Libya are Spain's Repsol (REP: news, chart, profile) and Italy's Eni SPA (E: news, chart, profile). Both have had huge runs of late, and still look to have some strength left. Bottom line? While the oil service companies repair Iraq's infrastructure under Iraqi government-backed contracts, Libya is about to become the new frontier for the majors."

Comment: The above is a qoute from a link worthy of a close read. Does anyone else at the table remember all the trips Bush/Blair made to Spain in the early stages of the Iraq War? How about the gold sales made by Spain during the same time period to help stave off the rising price of gold? France and Germany, for lots of reasons objected to the war in Iraq, Italy did not that I am aware of. Looks like it is soon to be "payday" for both Spain and Italy. A couple of the puzzle pieces may have just fallen into place.
mikal
(01/11/2004; 14:39:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115098)
@Chris Powell
Thank you for your outstanding work and continued notices.
I don't really think the Bundesbank President himself really believes that old trick will get by very many people.
But he IS going through the motions with full determination.
I'd guess he's paying lip service to the European socialist's agenda while supporting the academic interests of their establishment.
And the naive brats in their banking and political bureaucracy with zero precious metals investments, will be thorougly titillated for a day or two at most.
Best Regards
Cavan Man
(01/11/2004; 15:08:57 MDT - Msg ID: 115099)
Bundesbank selling gold (again)?
A German CB selling gold for dollars; not gonna happen. Sorry for the poor grammar...CM
21mabry
(01/11/2004; 15:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 115100)
Oneil
If I remember correctly Secretary Oneil was fired because he did not want to play the game the way the administration was playing it.It would be great to listen to him talk about gold,currency issues,the fed,and the world economies.Im sure his comments on Iraq will be interesting but his specialty was economics I hope he starts talking about that.I wonder why he is coming out now.FDR said nothing in politics is accidental what is driving this and why now.21
Liberty Head
(01/11/2004; 15:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115101)
Late Night with Jack Snow - Is This Guy Funny or What?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&e=2&u=/ap/20040111/ap_on_sc/bush_space
snippit:
Snow said the new space proposals, which include a permanent settlement on the moon and setting a goal of sending Americans to Mars, will be undertaken "within a framework of fiscal responsibility."
-----------
Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha fiscal responsibility ah ha ha ha ha
Boy, talk about snowing the public, this is it.
I hope they are careful with the selection process, we don't want to put any insurgents on Mars. ah ha ha ha
"Take this ship to Venus"


----------
snippit:
"Whatever the program is, however big it is," Evans said, "it will be within a responsible fiscal budget."
---------
however big it is? Ah ha ha ha ha ha ah
it will be responsible. HA HA HA HA HA
Obviously, to these highly distinquished gentlemen, there is no point at which unbridled government spending becomes irresponsible.


--------
snippit:
Snow said. "I am very confident this recovery will translate into job creation."
-------
Oh, I see. First comes the recovery THEN comes the production.
He must be talkin about prison guard and airport screening jobs.
You know, if you take everything the government says and distill it down to it's pure esscence you end up with a simple message.
Buy gold and pray for those who don't.

Best Wishes
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/11/2004; 16:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 115102)
Your friend in the business, helping you enter the market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
Chris Powell
(01/11/2004; 16:04:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115103)
Bundesbank president undercuts gold sales report
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1832Welteke comments from BIS meeting in Basle.


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MK
(01/11/2004; 16:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 115105)
Chris Powell: On Germany's Gold and the Fautian Bargain
The earliest reference I could find to Ernst Welteke obsession with gold sales was in February, 2002. "The Privateer" reports Welteke as saying that Bundesbank should sell gold and reinvest the proceeds so that

**the interest could be used to pay off the German national debt.**

In March, 2002, Welteke was guoted by the German newspaper, "Der Tagesspiegel", as saying that the Bundesbank should sell gold to

**help finance public infrastructure work.**

In April, 2002, Welteke was quoted in "AFP" as saying that the Bundesbank should sell gold to invest in

**blue chip shares and shares listed on the Euro-stoxx-50.**

In September, 2002, Virtual Metals� "Gold, Energy & Commodities" reports Welteke to have suggested that Germany's gold reserves be sold to

**provide relief for victims of natural catastrophes**
(like the floods which ravaged Germany and central Europe in the summer of 2002).

I also recall (but not certain) at some point between February 2002 and the present, Welteke mentioning selling Bundesbank gold to provide funds for

**environmental clean-up**
(though I cannot at the moment find the reference.)

Now, "Bloomberg" reports that in broad-band fashion, Welteke would like to sell Bundesbank gold to

**promote education and research**

So, to what do we owe Mr. Welteke's rather irritating and chronic obsession with the sale of Bundesbank gold? One would think that given enough time, he would entice every possible consituency in Germany with what could be done with the proceeds from the sale of the German people's gold.

It has been speculated that the real reason for the sales has little to do with any of the above, but a long-forgotten merger between Bankers� Trust of New York and Deutschbank many years ago -- a merger in which a $10 billion gold loan book (as estimated in some quarters) was passed between the United States and Germany. Now that obligation may have become a sine qua non for the German national bank. Those old gold loans have to be repaid assuming they haven't already. They are owed to some other central bank somewhere in this gold-starved world. And in a world where gold in any size is the object of much competition (if it's available at all), a central banker must secure the asset where he finds it. Why else would someone come up with so many different questionable reasons to sell Germany's patrimony? As lender of last resort, the bail-out obligation of the central bank extends to gold loans as well as the kind you can print into obscurity, and that, I believe, more than anything, explains Welteke's obsession. As someone pointed out here recently, and I have said on numerous occasions, it is not the central bank which controls its commercial constituency, but the other way around.

Speaking of patrimony, I can't help but allude to Mr. Welteke's speech to Germany's Monetary Stability Foundation (of all groups) in December, 2002. In that speech, he quotes the great German philosopher/playwright, Goethe:

"What you have inherited from your fathers / Earn over again for yourselves, in order to possess it."

Welteke offered the quote in reference to the central bank's obligation to preserve the national asset structure through a sound monetary policy.

One might conclude from the Goethe reference, that Welteke would be content to let the German gold-heritage go at these prices in order for the German people to earn it back again for themselves at $1000 per ounce. Somehow I don't think that's what the great Goethe had in mind. To be sure, he would most likely blanche, as a matter of fact, at such Faustian bargains.
MK
(01/11/2004; 17:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 115106)
Chris & All. . .
I might add that in my estimation given the circumstances, any gold that might be released from the Bundesbank would be unlikely see the light of day. Assuming that gold is owed to someone else, it would be foolhardy for that entity to dump it on the market in these circumstances. I believe Bundesbank gold sales, if they occur, will be NON-EVENTS in the gold market. Just as the Bank of England turned out to be non-events, and the Swiss sales went quietly into the good night.
goldquest
(01/11/2004; 17:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 115107)
Bundesbank Gold Selling
I agree, non event, it's just their turn to make waves and to try and spook people away from gold. I am sure the Chinese will buy all of the gold Bundesbank cares to sell.
CoBra(too)
(01/11/2004; 18:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 115108)
BuBa's Gold
It's just what Ferdi Lips has described in the additional chapter of the German edition of Gold Wars. A smoke screen for gold long lost and encumbered ....

Sorry for being brief - it's really late - cb2
R Powell
(01/11/2004; 18:29:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115109)
Large gold sales
Perhaps years ago people held the opinion that gold was not a good investment because they held the same opinion voiced once by Larry Kudlow when he said. "Why should I invest in gold when central banks are likely to sell it at any time?."
During those years the POG was declining (trending down).

Now the situation has changed. Gold is being bought, the trend is definitely upward so that I'm not at all sure that announced bank sales, by the Bundesbank or others, would have the same negative effect that they once dispensed. For starters, I believe more interest would focus on who obtained the gold and, as mentioned, why it is being sold.

Often the same news causes a different market reaction
under different market conditions. The reaction often depends upon how the news is interpreted by the market players. I'm no longer sure how the POG would now respond to announced gold sales. It is even conceiveable, by this old goldbug, that announced sales could start panic buying. Large sales orders often cause a concern with the perceived availability of the item. If the issue were grossly oversubscribed (very likely, imho) the buying pressure might increase all the more.
Rich PS> I don't expect any announced bank silver offerings.
R Powell
(01/11/2004; 18:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 115110)
COT report
As usual the report became public on 1/9/04 but consists of numbers totaled through 1/6/04 so the last three days of trading are not included.
I'm wondering with the price of gold and silver at multi-year highs, how much the potential for a real short covering move has increased. I'm refering here to the Comex only and not OTC positions. The COT shows the same positioning that we've seen for some time now. The commercials are short, and all the speculative funds and small speculative players are long. Supposedly, the commercials are legitimate hedgers who would not be pressured into covering. I don't believe this, I never have. With multi-year highs, there can't be many short positions that aren't suffering. It's not as if they sold gold last year at $480/ounce or silver at $6.90/ounce. I imagine there are some wondering how to not only hedge against further lose but also how to position on the long side. Creative positioning (like going long to cover short options) usually creates more problems in the long run than simply closing the losing position. The passage of time should force the loses to be settled. Maybe a huge short covering rally is now more likely...?? An explosion? I don't know, but I believe the chances of one are greater now than they were when $2.00 was a big daily move. For long term investors, metals are still cheap!
Thoughts?
Rich
Mr Gresham
(01/11/2004; 19:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115111)
MK: Welteke
That is quite an amazing post chronologizing Welteke's obsession with selling gold for any reason he can think of at breakfast that morning.

Not to cheapen your fine scholarship with low TV humor, but Welteke (if the guy is not really on-the-take) reminds me of SNL's John Lovits character, "The Liar", who switches his explanations with every sentence, "yeah, that's the ticket" I think was his sign-off line.

Some shady dealings may come out after this is all over with. (Or may not. Pharaohs used to have their golden tomb's architects buried with them, didn't they?)

I haven't read any further down today, but do you have a take on Sinclair's ideas about $480 being some kind of limit, or is he just giving the system a warning that above 480 means much more is going down than just the dollar's exchange rate? That's my guess, as he explains to Dan Norcini afterward, that he can only say things up to a point in larger media.
Chris Powell
(01/11/2004; 19:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 115112)
Thanks to our host MK for this GATA dispatch
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1834Why is Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke
obsessed with selling Germany's gold?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1834


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MK
(01/11/2004; 19:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 115113)
MGresh
Do you have a link on the Sinclair? MK
mikal
(01/11/2004; 19:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115114)
@R. Powell
Re: "Maybe a huge short covering rally is now more likely?"
Good points.
Remember the legend Warren Buffett not long ago at all, said that derivatives are "weapons of financial mass destruction."
And John Templeton, another legend, the venerable Richard Russell, Dr. Richenbacher, Harry Shultze, and Jim Sinclair all have weighed in on the implications of the various bubbles, layered contracts, debts, imbalances, deficits, etc.
Also Steven Roach, Bill Fleckenstein, Bill Buckler, Thom Calandra, Charley Reese, Jim Puplava, Mike Bolser, Chris Powell, Bill Murphy, Michael Kosares, John Embry, Adam Hamilton, James Turk, just off the top of my head.
Cavan Man
(01/11/2004; 19:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 115115)
Here Mike...
http://www.jsmineset.com/Cheers..
mikal
(01/11/2004; 19:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115116)
@R. Powell
Of course there's the inimitable poster known as Another and his friend FOA(Friend of Another aka Trail Guide).
Pizz
(01/11/2004; 19:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115117)
Rich
Been pondering the same thoughts as you, but not from the futures, since I follow stocks and options. Here are some of the dots I've been trying to connect.

The US and Japan have told the world that the dollar will be defended. They even told us how much is available. Battle line appears to be 80 to 85. A three month bounce setting up a right shoulder on the dollar with an 80 or so neckline could be in the making. Dollar is way oversold technically, but fundamentally dead over the next few years.

I think we're about done short term with dollar help. I'm expecting an interim low for the dollar this week.

PM bugs are starting to get frothy, usually a good indicator of correction coming.

Stocks have been acting inverse to the dollar, and they are also due for a 10% or so correction. PM stocks included. the silver stocks have about 10% or so left on the upside - at least the ones I follow, and that would allow for a shot at 7.00 ag, but I feel it will happen fairly quickly.

There appears to be some tape painting going on for HUI to appear to be making a double top.

I think silver's bust out thru a few shorts' plans a bit haywire, but they appear to be holding out for a correction, it just won't be what they were hoping for (hold the 6.40 and react back under 6). Now it appears that 6.25 to 6.40 may be support for the next pullback.

The 12 million ounces taken off the Comex available inventory seems to have racheted up the game so to speak.

All in all, emotionally I'm just nervous enough that we probably have a bit more on the upside, but nothing is straight up.

Just one man's opinion, based upon the disecting of a bunch of other opinions, and due your own due dilligence, etc., etc.

One other strongly fundamental reason for silver that I read, but unfortunatly can't remember where, was a company ramping up silver wire production for use in a superconductor electrical grid. Our electric grid looks worse than my "home brew" computer that I use. If the recession gets bad enough (MORE than likely), our electric grid refurbishment will make a great government works project. A year or two or three away yet, but I'm keeping it in the back of my mind. If 12 million ounces was good for .60 on silver's price, how about a few hundreds of millions for wire AND investment demand. . . .

Be nimble buddy and preserve the capital at all costs, the floats are gettin' thin, volitility up, and we haven't even a good sweat worked up - yet (smile).

Pizz
mikal
(01/11/2004; 19:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 115118)
@R. Powell
The Central bankers themselves like Alan Greenspan who has penned various pro-gold treatises and speaks veiled disclaimers and not-so-veiled warnings of late. Ben Bernanke and Wim Duisenburg too, and now the IMF.

Eddie George of the Bank of England a few short years ago said: "We were looking into the abyss", leaked words from a meeting to discuss gold and $ market intervention to save the failed LTCM.
Truthcaster
(01/11/2004; 20:02:59 MDT - Msg ID: 115119)
Hi Ho Silver
Silver is doing very good tonight and gold is well off
it's lows. Silver now trading at 6.60 oz it's nice
to see the poor man gold doing so well..
Have a great week all..
Truthcaster
Waterboy
(01/11/2004; 21:38:15 MDT - Msg ID: 115120)
(No Subject)
Re-posted from the Bear Forum

Bear Forum

Mars Rover makes incredible discovery.

Posted By: ClosetBull
Date: Saturday, 10 January 2004, at 6:59 p.m.

NASA Control, Mission to Mars
Janyary 19, 2004

Mars Mover Makes Minerals Discovery

After only two days of exploration, the Mars Rover sampled a core sample after drilling the wall of the great crater "Sea of Hope" in which it landed. The core sample yielded an ore that had a content of 1% iron, 20% silicon, 17% mica and 62% gold.

Geologists at NASA estimate that given the sheer size of the crater wall, that there are approximately 800 trillion tons of gold reserves just in that one site. When asked whether and how the gold would be mined, NASA scientists remarked that gold was worth much more in the ground as reserves and quoted several internet sources to support their opinion.

Several gold stock financial newsletter writers said that it made no difference how much gold was on Mars because the mining and recovery costs would be so high that by the time Mars gold got back to Earth it would cost over $600,000/oz. They added that while Mars production would not be a factor this year or next, it could influence the price of gold within three or four years as that is all it would have taken for gold to reach 600K/oz anyway.

Bush commented that he always suspected that Mars was make of gold because red is not the color of capitalism and communists don't know anything about gold.

Treasury Secretary Snow was quoted to say that the US would be financing its current and future deficits with Mars bonds backed by Mars gold. He privately said countries around the world are stupid enough to believe the gold story and they'd be happy to take bonds with gold backing in lieu of Treasury notes only backed by the full faith and credit of the US.

Dollar Bill
(01/11/2004; 22:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115121)
*>*
Black Blade, Thank you for all your posts. Your goodbye post was removed at your request I suppose, too much info?
I didnt see it, but whatever calls you, best to you.

Sir Melting Pot, "Let's stop being nice to this nightmare and all who would keep us in it." You make some good points.
I have to keep in mind the idea, "know your enemy". If I really do that, I stand a decent chance to find the weakness that could defeat the thing I dont like. Since I have that pesky lifespan issue to contend with, effective action is a target of mine. Understanding more is key.
Al kyda dunces kill themselves and others to try to do what derivitives and the fed will do in time. They kill to cause the collapse that is already on its way. It is like blowing yourself up to change the course of the river that is already headed the way you want.
Gandalf the White
(01/11/2004; 22:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115122)
TA TA TAAAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
YES --- There it is !!!! The USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. "CALL to CONTEST" !!! It has been approved to be sounded by SIR MK !!! <;-)

YES, all you Goldhearts, Sir M. K. has requested the FIRST CONTEST of 2004 be started ! This contest will be a COMEX Feb. '04 Contract (GC4G) POG Settlement Contest

Sir M. K. said, "Let's make the WINNING prize (OF COURSE) --- a German KING "20 Mark" goldpiece (0.2304 oz. of Au), and the two RUNNERS-UP each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle." "Each entry MUST be accompanied by the REQUIRED short statement !

The CONTEST starts NOW !! READ THE RULES !
<;-)
===

THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!

1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a short "STATEMENT" !

2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX FEB. 2004 Gold Contract (GC4G) on the date of WEDNESDAY, the 21st of January, 2004. HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00 MDT) on SUNDAY, January 18th, 2004.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $500.0) and shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS", (Such as ****** $500.0 *******), so as to be OFFICIAL !

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to accompany the Price prognostication,--- Each guess must be accompanied with a completion of the following statement ---

"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because --- (in thirty words or less).
===

This CONTEST STARTS, NOW !
GOOD LUCK ALL !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/11/2004; 22:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115123)
******** $432.1 **********
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because I have been ordered to create a diversion to cover the fact that Germany does not have any Gold anyway !"
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(01/11/2004; 22:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115124)
Sir RICH --- I think you missed my last message to you ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]⪯f=GFIVE --- yes 5, LITTLE GREEN "X"s !!
HI HO SILVER, AWAY !!!
<;-)
Dollar Bill
(01/11/2004; 23:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115125)
*>*
**452**
Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because
we need others to think gold is a poor investment so that they will sell it, not buy it, we can quietly buy it, cheap, and build up the EURO.
The CoinGuy
(01/11/2004; 23:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115126)
Pizz...
AMSC

Best,

The CoinGuy
Operative
(01/11/2004; 23:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 115127)
******* $436.50 **********
Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because, and I know you may not believe this, but rumors have it the real money is to be made in silver.
Goldilox
(01/11/2004; 23:48:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115128)
contest entry
**** 431.5****

"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because the exchange rate is causing Mercedes prices to rise too fast in America. As an additional accomodation to my American friends, I am also asking DaimlerChrysler to outfit its SL500 model with optional breathalizers so that future American leaders can successfully fulfill their alcohol probations in comfort and luxury."

Sale of the gold should bring down the euro as well as bring gold down to its new floor of

**** 431.5 ****

-Goldilox
Liberty Head
(01/11/2004; 23:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 115129)
******$435.0******

"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because the Emperor needs to pay for his new clothes.
Goldilox
(01/11/2004; 23:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 115130)
Go for it, Bill
On second thought, I like Dollar Bill's guess better!!!

(:^) - G
Caradoc
(01/12/2004; 00:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115131)
**************$462.5******************
Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because we want to be polite. You see, we leased all that gold long ago to friends of ours who sold it and invested the money elsewhere (at rate of return higher than they were paying us for the gold) while expecting to be able eventually to buy back that amount of gold at a cheaper price in order to end the lease arrangement. Strangely, the price of gold is going up instead of doing what our friends had planned. In this situation, it would cause embarrassment amongst our friends -- many of whom are also relatives -- if we were to ask them to return the leased gold. And we all know that causing embarrassment is not polite. So, once we "sell" the gold at an undisclosed price to the nice people who already leased it, this whole awkward situation will go away without embarrassing anyone. I hope you all understand now.

Ernst "go along to get along" Welteke
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 00:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115132)
Silver
@ Gandalf

It looks like silver wants to add another little green X or two tonight.

$6.60 and climbing.
omegaman
(01/12/2004; 00:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115133)
*****447.50***
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because....erh...because...err...the international banking establishment says I...errh...we should because...if we don't then the world economy will...err...not accomodate the...oh forget it!
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 01:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 115134)
Fed's pugnacious policies hurt economies
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA10Dj01.htmlsnippit:

"Greenspan turns market into alcoholic for free $
Far from being an emergency shot of whisky to calm nerves, Greenspan's reaction to 1987 turned the market into an alcoholic craving the free flow of money. His longer-than-necessary monetary easing was directly responsible for the debt bubble decade of the 1990s, from which the global economy has yet to recover. The short deep crash and short mild recovery scenario has continued into 2004 in a long term downward spiral. What Greenspan has done is to palliate sharp recessions with long-term gradual economic decline, a replay of the Japanese game plan. The end of the business cycle is brought about by a gradual decline of the economy. In his speech, Greenspan presented his view of this gradual decline by crediting rate reductions for mild recessions but explaining modest recoveries with Keynes' liquidity trap without acknowledging Keynes. Greenspan called it "financial head winds".

Greenspan gave the Fed and himself credit for raising the Fed funds rate 300 basis points over 12 months that he claimed "apparently defused those nascent inflationary pressures" in 1994 and he claimed success for a "historically elusive soft landing" in 1995. He even went on to claim "the success of that period set up two powerful expectations that were to influence developments over the subsequent decade. One was the expectation that inflation could be controlled over the business cycle and that price stability was an achievable objective. The second expectation, in part a consequence of more stable inflation, was that overall economic volatility had been reduced and would likely remain lower than it had previously."

This claim is simply not support by facts."


Goldilox:

A rather long, but well thought out examination of Sir AG's San Diego speech by Henry C K Lui. Henry pulls no punches and discusses the FED's roll in the last few financial events of consequence. Have a couple beers set aside for this one, but it's worth it.
OZ
(01/12/2004; 01:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115135)
Ag and Au at 3:45am
ag at 6.73 USD$
Au at 428.4 USD$
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 02:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115136)
Hi HO Silver
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1$6.70 at 1:00AM PST
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 02:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 115137)
DX Look Out Below
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10DX - 84.83 at 1:05AM PST
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 02:17:27 MDT - Msg ID: 115138)
Last but not Least
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1Au - $428.60 at 1:12AM PST
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 02:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115139)
Silver Again
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1OK, all you Revelational Theorists, silver is at 6.66 as of 01:20PST
FreeWillie
(01/12/2004; 03:30:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115140)
****342.1****
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I sink that Germany should sell its Gold because ... all sis brouhaha about gold and se euro was just a diversion so we can work on a cashless (and goldless) society where buying and selling is conducted via se good offices of a convenient little chip in your hand.
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 03:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 115141)
MK: Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/I see Cavan Man has done the honor, but I'll provide the excerpts. My take on Sinclair is that he's someone who believes he may have the ear of decisionmakers at the USG and CB levels, and so he tempers his POG predictions, hoping to get in the door to influence monetary policy.

You and I know we can be but informed observers of the monetary meltdown. He is probably just conscientiously speaking from what platforms he finds about today's monetary relationship to gold's ascent.

Of course, doesn't the "Gold Cover Clause" (I should Google it someday) require a peek into Fort Knox? Followed by an off-season visit to Santa's Workshop. Geraldo, where ARE you?

I think the thrust of the O'Neill and other publicity lately will convince that these people are beyond caring for the public outcomes they cause and are only out to enrich a few backers. Public be damned. Makes our golden lifeboat all the more necessary, and the recovery (hiding out) period all the longer. What was that quote below: "Buy gold, and pray for those who don't."

Me, I'm done rescuing people. "Whom the gods would destroy..." About time to order some seeds, and soon to get dirt under my fingernails.

MONEYWEB: You talk $470 to $480 and ounce. Would that be the end of it? Would that be the end of gold's run this time around?

JIM SINCLAIR: We would hope so, because if gold moves above $529 then it moves out of a normal bull market form into a runaway market, similar to what occurred in late 1979. And any rational analyst understanding the reasons why gold would do something like that would not be necessarily wanting to predict that.

So I'd rather stay with the high estimates made for the euro, create the hypothetical euro, move back in time to general trading range of gold, and suggest that if gold was to trade into the $470 to $480 level that it would fulfill the high estimates made by the most accepted
analytical firms that exist now, the international investment firms.

MONEYWEB: What about thereafter? Would you see the metal collapsing?

JIM SINCLAIR: A great deal depends on where we go after November 2004, because clearly we've applied right now in the period of 18 months the entire Roosevelt anti-deflationary programme applied between 1930 and 1941, including a war or two.

So the fiscal stimulus supported by monetary ease has been to such a degree that we've created one of the better equity markets and one of the more spectacular business recoveries that we have by historical precedent.

The question comes how far does fiscal stimulation or war-related economy via pre-emptive strike and anti-terrorist programmes take an economy, and what does the decline in the US dollar, the major settlement world currency, mean in terms of latent inflation, because the CPI and PPI, measures of inflation, are such lagging indicators?

And also because those indicators have been adjusted so many times during 23 years of falling prices that, in fact, they may never again really be able to recognize significant inflation, and bearing in mind that the true definition of inflation has nothing to do with prices, it's a monetary definition.

And in that situation we're in a hyper-monetary inflation. So does that factor into the world economies? Does it factor into gold through that? Does inflation take the place of dollar depreciation as the driver of gold? But that's pure speculation, that's analytical speculation.

What you do know now is that there is strong world opinion amongst accepted voices in finance, which of course move the greater amount of money, that the new personality in gold I'm going to suggest is in fact the international investment banks� clients, who would naturally deal in that as an offshoot to the prediction of the lower dollar.

Now, leaving that, and taking that as solid real evidence, something that could not really be argued away, you can come to a conclusion. That's the reason why gold came through $400 and that's the reason why gold is going to go to approximately $480.

Above that, you'd need another driver because of the extreme downside of the hypothetical euro. Take the euro model and simply go back to the currency values that make up the euro and see what its level was in 1971 through 1981; equate that to the price of gold, give or take a percentage of 10%, so you have an error factor, if gold goes above $480 it would require that inflation became the driver along with the downside in gold ["dollar" -- transcription error]. It would require the USDX to be below 0.80, and that's a mouthful. Because the truth of it is it does no one any good. Not the gold holder or anyone else.

Dan Norcini follows in response to Jim: "Those who wrote me are stunned at what they believe was a very conservative price estimate on your part. I have explained that they should read between the lines at what you were saying where you make reference to other factors besides the Euro level that affect the price of gold, most notably inflation factors....

"I am of the opinion that inflation will indeed be the driver as the Fed must inflate or die Jim. There is too much debt in the system and either the Fed inflates or default is in order. The latter is unthinkable unless we want our nation looking like Argentina.

"Also, I realize that the international investment banks are basing their price projections on the hypothetical Euro model - I do believe, however, that such a model is fundamentally flawed for projecting a gold price since we are in uncharted territory compared with the conditions that marked the late 70's. It is no doubt good for initial projections but falls short in my estimation. Of course - that is the Austrian school speaking in me. :o) "

In Sinclair's reply: "...2/ The Gold Community should understand that to communicate with the non-gold community you take each move a step at a time or else they shut right down on you.

"3/ After $480, the driver will be inflation in the form of Stagflation."

I think Sinclair is echoing something like I think I remember Another saying: (paraphrase) "Your gold will make you wealthy in dollars, but you won't like it." (Now WHO was that?)


Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 04:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115142)
Shprockets! (Yeah, that's the ticket!)
http://www.gawth.com/~desolate/sprockets.htmlWelcome to Sprockets. I am your host, Dieter Welteke.

Much gold is to be sold. Do not ask me why. Your questions have become tiresome.

Would you like to touch my monkey?

Now is the time on Sprockets when we dance. That's all the time we have, until next time, auf Wiedersehen!
spotlight
(01/12/2004; 04:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115143)
Free trade?
Snippet:

Charles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts: Driving jobs offshore isn't the way free trade is supposed to work
Charles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts

Published January 7, 2004
ROBERTS01

This is a very different world than Ricardo envisioned. When American companies replace domestic employees with lower-cost foreign workers in order to sell more cheaply in home markets, it seems hard to argue that this is the way free trade is supposed to work. To call this a "jobless recovery" is inaccurate: lots of new jobs are being created, just not here in the United States.

In the past, we have supported free trade policies. But if the case for free trade is undermined by changes in the global economy, our policies should reflect the new realities.

While some economists and elected officials suggest that all we need is a robust retraining effort for laid-off workers, we do not believe retraining alone is an answer, because almost the entire range of "knowledge jobs" can be done overseas.

Likewise, we do not believe that offering tax incentives to companies that keep American jobs at home can compensate for the enormous wage differentials driving jobs offshore.

America's trade agreements need to reflect the new reality. The first step is to begin an honest debate about where our economy really is and where we are headed as a nation.

Old-fashioned protectionist measures are not the answer, but the new era will demand new thinking and new solutions. And one thing is certain: Real and effective solutions will emerge only when economists and policymakers end the confusion between the free flow of goods and the free flow of factors of production.

Charles Schumer, a Democrat, is the senior senator from New York. Paul Craig Roberts was assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy in the Reagan administration. They wrote this article for the New York Times.
******************************

Spotlight Comment:

The above article on free trade also clears up the reason for the highly advertised deflation we are supposed to be experiencing.

Regarding deflation. Deflation, properly defined is a contraction of the money supply. One has just to look at a chart of the money supply over the last ten years to be thoroughly convinced. We don't have deflation. We are experiencing lower prices through lower costs of everything that can be reproduced at a lower cost elsewhere in the world. Just about everything produced here in the US has been rising in price over the years.

The above article spells out a very serious situation that is evolving at an alarming pace.

This is not something where we can just pass a law, and all will be well. It isn't just free trade that is at stake here. It is freedom itself. I am not looking for a solution to this problem but rather, I will be considering where this will lead, regarding the future of the US.

The third world nations involved in trade with the US are waking up to the advantages open to them. They have geared up, or are rapidly in the process of gearing up, to participate in a much larger portion of the production of goods and services required by the US and the rest of the world, at much lower costs to our businesses and multinational corporations including our financial institutions.

Think of calling your insurance broker to put in a claim. You don't know it but the local office has been closed for months and their employees have had to find jobs in another line of work. Your call has been taken and handled from an office in "otherland."

Try to think of a way to prevent this from happening without stepping on someone's freedom.

Toolie
(01/12/2004; 05:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115144)
The money of free trade
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/legacy/trade/106cong/2-3-99/2-3kemp.htmJack Kemp --February 3, 1999
Snip:
When this committee first opened the prospect of American trade and access to American markets and conceived of a direct relationship with Africa's new tigers, it was an audacious proposal. It still is, but it cannot work if it is implemented in an environment of currency turbulence. Remember the high hopes we all had for NAFTA�hopes that were crushed under a collapsing peso? Revival of those hopes has been stunted by the protectionist sentiments that arose from the currency chaos that followed the peso's devaluation.
Since I last visited with the Committee to discuss this subject, currency chaos has spread. The world financial system has been thrown into turmoil, calling into question the beneficial effects of market forces and indeed creating doubt about the whole notion of economic globalization.
Protectionist instincts, never far beneath the surface, are on the rise as a consequence of the global deflation in commodities and other raw materials. The U.S. steel industry, hurt by a record level of imports from Russia, Asia and other regions, is a prime example. These protectionist instincts are being misdirected at free and open trade instead of the real source of the problem�an international monetary arrangement of floating currencies, in which no currency is linked to a stable anchor and all countries are tempted to use currency devaluation as an economic policy instrument during times of economic duress.
The current system clearly is a menace to the stability and viability of global markets. Since the 1970s, the Leviathan known as the International Monetary Fund has impoverished much of the developing world�such as helping to wipe out the savings of ordinary citizens and families in Mexico when it supported the devaluation of the peso four years ago�through its mindless formula of increasing taxes to balance budgets and depreciating currencies to promote going-out-of-business export sales. Despite promises to reform, the IMF continues to inflict its damaging policies on countries already suffering from financial and economic collapse. Rather than shelling out billions of dollars for the Fund, our Treasury Department should be hard at work figuring out how to reconstitute a stable international monetary system.
The beginning of chaos in financial markets around the world can be traced to the devaluation of the Mexican peso four years ago. At the time, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan essentially told the Senate Banking Committee that the impoverishment of Mexico would not have occurred if we were on a gold standard�which would have meant that both the peso and the dollar were convertible into gold at a fixed rate. The same is true of the Asian crisis, which sent Thailand and Indonesia off track as the Fed's monetary deflation caused the dollar to depreciate against gold and other commodities.
The economist and author Judy Shelton makes the connection between stable money and free trade: "The real threat to the global trade system is thus the prevailing free-for-all approach to currency relations that engenders monetary nationalism and ultimately fosters a protectionist backlash. The solution is to set up an orderly international monetary system that would permit all nations to compete in the global marketplace based on a common unit of account."
Dollar Bill
(01/12/2004; 06:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 115145)
*>*
Sir Goldilox, After reading Greenspans latest speech, where he paints the picture of the feds actions during his term, many analysts have criticized his presentation. Like you posted. I will take it one step further...it looks like he has narcissist qualities. Maybe that is the reason for his brazen policies. I always assumed it was just the bold steps needed to keep reserve status in a imperfect system.

When I first read it, I thought, why does he lie about the schedule of interest rate increases during the end of the bubble? He presents it wrong. And that is not the only flaw.
I have been reading American Revolutionary history of late, and historians say that John Adams did good things for America, but he was not a good reporter. His narcissism tainted his writings in a big way. And affected his actions during the Constitution days. Mostly to the benefit to America.
For Greenspan to have this affliction is scary as his decisions.....and who is to keep him in check? Bereneke? Mc Teer? Greenspan is a small man right? 3 feet tall? Seems like...sometimes height affects a guy to overcompensate.
Praise will do that also. Like our poster who craved "awe and intense respect". It aint healthy, affects behaviours, and Greenspan, by his latest speech trumpeting himself, incorrectly, is policy also determined by personal glory seeking? Reasonable question after reading his speech.
Operative
(01/12/2004; 07:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 115146)
Iraqis Await Pricey New Mobile Phones
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAT023KCPD.htmlIraqis Await Pricey New Mobile Phones

Snip:
The introduction of mobile service was held up by political infighting among members of the U.S.-appointed interim Iraqi Governing Council and a Pentagon investigation into allegations of corruption and influence-peddling in the awarding of the contracts, a coalition official said.
The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, refused to say if the investigation was still ongoing or what had been uncovered. But the official acknowledged remaining concerns that at least one of the successful bidders had ties to the ousted regime and another was run by friends of at least one council member.

Comment: I know it is comforting to see the Pentagon investigating corruption and influence-peddling, ties to former regime, and companies run by friends of council members. Perhaps they should award the telelphone business to Haliburton to avoid any appearance of favortism eh?
jenika
(01/12/2004; 07:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115147)
************456.50**********
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because JPMorgan Chase have lowered our rating so we buy shares in Adecco who will in turn buy Deutsche Bank shares! Is goot idea ya? Noo Adecco have NO accounting irregularities.

knotakare
(01/12/2004; 08:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115148)
***********$ 447.50*************
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because " I want to live a life of Danger". And besides, there is no more Germany.
knotakare
(01/12/2004; 08:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115149)
*****$ 449.0 ********
Admin.; please change my price quess to $449.00.
Zhisheng
(01/12/2004; 08:06:56 MDT - Msg ID: 115150)
***$440.0***
I am Ernst Welteke and I believe Germany should sell its gold, buy silver on the futures market,take delivery of half causing the the price of silver to explode, sell out gradually the other half of the silver positions, and then buy all the gold back again with the paper profits.
Belgian
(01/12/2004; 08:08:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115151)
Hallo, hallooooo.... We(a)lt(h)eke, overhere
I, Welteke, wellcomed Sir Alan in Berlin, with Another, pr�-emptive, Gold statement. How many times do we have to make it clear that...THE DOLLAR SHOULD UNWIND *** ORDERLY *** !
And with "orderly", we mean without causing damage and this for a considerable time to come. And,...BTW, don't try to guess what's up with Gold...any Gold and its prices (plural-prices) ! Gold is one of our instruments for managing the (temporary) monetary order. Don't go earsdropping or decoding the causy C-Bankers' reunions in Bazel. And Alan's speak want make you any wiser as well.

Jawoll herr, Welteke.

�-$ rushed to 1,29 and got hammered (slowed down) at NY's opening.

The dollar needs one thing : China + satelites raising their currency's exchange rates. This is (imo) not going to materialize, as it should for the dollar's benefit. The dollar (system) will not be releaved from its systemic assault, coming out of the Eastern corner. Wall Mart has even Big expansion plans, within the US. The dollar will be "used" up until exhaustion, whilst the dollar accumulators continue to anticipate (with GOLD) the dollar's final demise.

The "orderly", $-decline-unwinding-desintegration, should be managed (by CBs and not the markets) in such a way that most collateral damage is reduced to an absolute minimum for everybody, during the unwinding (transitional) period.
Don't run with the C-Bankers' ball to the markets' playgrounds ! Our collusive cartel agreements should be unspokenly respected !

I remain of the opinion that Welteke's Gold statements are of a purely political nature with the purpose of managing the �-$ affairs. If there is/was a DB/BT Gold-affair, it would be settled (arranged), silently, even in a Gold starved world.
Welteke is echoing the...CBs stand ready to sell (???) Gold, should...(A.G.)etc...
Dollar-support for orderly unwinding as is/was BUBA's tradition.

slingshot
(01/12/2004; 08:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115152)
******** $429.7********
Hi, My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because it is an opportunity. Germany will lead the way in the formation of the European Union. This is a time of substitution, then replacement of the Federal Reserve Note. Our selling of gold stabilizes our emerging Global Economy until the time comes. Until then I will be just like some of you Goldbugs. Sell into a rising market. Take some profit. Whats a few tons of Gold anyhow in this New Market? How am I going to replace Germanys Gold?
From the other Central Banks of the World, Of Course!

Maybe I can star in a commercial and lean into the lens of the camera and say,

"What's In Your Vault?"
Ah! Wonderbar.
Slingshot--------------<>
Paper Avalanche
(01/12/2004; 08:59:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115153)
Looks like a knock down, drag out fight at $425
Someone appears to be desparately trying to postpone the inevitable at this price.

PA
knotakare
(01/12/2004; 09:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 115154)
Sir Allan
I hope everyone read Stephen Roaches' recent comments on Allan Greenspan. He all but labeled Allan as the pied piper, a prodigous bubble, blowing machine.

As far as economics are concerned, the demand side of the equation will be the undoing of the great American dollar inflation. Too much demand for soybeans, oil, copper, ore etc., etc. (from the rest of the world) for the american's to continue to reap a windfall, through the use of our dominent currency. Now that we are major debtor's, we must stand in line with all others and bid, and see most of the bids won by foreign lands. If we were smart, we would treat those foreign lands with respect and honnor.

The smart folks in Asia will be able to go on a shopping spree of a lifetime here in the USA. Once these magnifican bubbles burst, and hurtle us back down to our beloved terra. Beautifull homes, golf courses and new-urbanist creations for only pennies. Maybee sir Allan likes to shop too?

I think that 2004 will be the great year, the year when the gap between fact and fiction will be at its greatest. Then the pied piper will have completed his job. He will have given a dying currency 15 more years of life, and given the politicians cover for their replacement of rebublican government.

Cometose
(01/12/2004; 09:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 115155)
Silver
Over the weekend there were some very interesting comments by David Morgan , a silver analyst, about supply problems and people needing to take delivery .......which perhaps is evident in the current price activity .........reminicsent of a previous time...in the metals markets...He spoke of several 25 cent days .....occuring in a row......Obviously the mining companies are having a little difficulty digesting the recent moves and are discounting this activity(the stock prices are not moving in concert with the metals prices as stated on Futures markets).....If Ted Butler's data is and reality of that finally grabbing hold Silver is currently undergoing vanishish act.....off the shelves so to speak....David Morgan said that if the comex medium of exchange breaks down , we will go to a cash only market for silver......If that happens, the price ranges for metals miners moving in the $100's(hundreds of dollars) will not be as ungraspable as it was for me a couple of weeks ago...... GOLD miners in late 70's and early 80's moved from 2$ to $400.00 without a Comex debacle.....
Ernst Welteke
(01/12/2004; 09:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 115156)
**** � 333.0 *****
Hello. Allow me to clear the air if I may.

My name IS Ernst Welteke, and these many months (as detailed yesterday by Mr. Kosares) I have been speaking of German GOLD sales; not lightly, but to serve a PURPOSE.

First, let me assure you GOLD is center on my radar screen. You will recall that I was tapped 11 May 1999 to take over the office of President of the Deutsche Bundesbank effective 1 September 1999 upon the age-limitation retirement of my worthy predecessor, Hans Tietmeyer. As you should be quick to note, a very significant act within the first four weeks of my Presidency was the 26 September 1999 signing of the Central Bank GOLD Agreement with 14 of my colleagues.

It was not an accident on 19 February 2002 that I initiated what would become an ongoing controversy among the GOLD community with my interview remarks to Bloomberg TV.

On that day I said, "We have significant GOLD reserves in the Bundesbank, and of course we are happy if the GOLD price rises. I could imagine that we slowly sell some of this GOLD and reinvest the revenue in assets that pay interest. ... We should in no case sell the GOLD reserves to pay off federal debt or finance new spending. At best, we should use the interest to reduce the debt."

Please receive those comments in their proper financial context -- at that time, from January to mid-February GOLD had steeply risen by � 40 per ounce ($30) -- coming at a time which that move was deemed inauspicious. If you will but look at a 4-year chart of GOLD in both euro and dollar terms, you will see at PRECISELY that point in February the euro/GOLD chart has demonstrated stability, whereas the dollar/GOLD chart has continued to come undone.

It is probably not an accurate worry that you deem me to have an "obsession" for the sale of "the German people's GOLD" or "patrimony". This is no idle obsession, and more to the point, strictly speaking, this is not the people's GOLD. Please bear with me.

Our situation in Germany is not exactly the American experience. In your case, the GOLD within your Federal Reserve banking system was appropriated by your people's Roosevelt government in 1933. It now truly belongs to your people's governmental Department of Treasury. And how even now, may I ask, might a U.S. citizen go about to lay claim on their share?

The primary quantity of GOLD still being held by your Federal Reserve banking System is therefore not the original metal forming the basis of that monetary institution, but is the GOLD they have been holding as custodians under earmark to international institutions such as our Bundesbank.

By contrasting experience, meanwhile, our institution has not been so looted by an overreaching government. Rather unlike the Federal Reserve's experience, it has been granted by Parliament of our Federal Republic of Germany that the Deutsche Bundesbank be independent of the instructions from Community institutions and government bodies such that the Bundesbank (similarly the ECB) remain free to pursue the mandate of price stability and the holding and managing of the foreign reserves (including GOLD) which were accumulated as a result of years of our past institutional operations. Please, do think about this carefully and what it portends to patrimony. You will likely find it more agreeable to the people it serves than the "looted" GOLD of the American experience.

All activities to date, this includes 110 million ounces of GOLD and receivables that we own and hold as reserve assets, which internally we now revalue monthly against our so-called "hidden reserve" revaluation account represented as a balance sheet liability.

As I said to the German newspaper FAZ on 18 October 2001 regarding our accumulated monetary reserves and the balance sheet, "The monetary reserves result from the Bundesbank's monetary policy activities in the past. The corresponding items on the liabilities side of the balance sheet are banknotes in circulation and deposits of credit institutions.

"The monetary reserves therefore cannot simply be extracted from the balance sheet without being replaced by another asset. They are not a kind of treasure trove which can be freely encashed without any counter-obligation.

"However, should they be sold -- against payment of the corresponding price by the purchaser -- the reserves contained in the "revaluation accounts" could be booked as a capital gain and distributed with the Bundesbank's profit. Another point to bear in mind is that monetary reserves still play a key role in reinforcing public confidence in the currency and anchoring the credibility of the national central banks."

And to be sure, any considerations of direct withdrawal and transfer of reserves "to other public institutions or any attempt by government agencies to influence the Bank in its task of managing the monetary reserves would breach the EC Treaty [Article 105 (2)] and infringe the Bundesbank's independence." To that end, although we subscribed our � 12.2 billion share, 15% of that in GOLD, of the original � 40 billion in foreign reserves to the ECB, the foreign reseves shall continue to be held by each national central bank, with nonsubscribed reserves subject to transaction approval by the ECB above certain volumes to maintain a consistency of E.M.Union-wide policy.

This brings us back to the topic of GOLD sales. Why would we talk publically about consideration of sales or actually pursue such sales? I assure you, it would not be to increase the dollar-portion of our reserve position! If we hint about it now, or if we sold GOLD in coming years, it would all be for leverage -- using GOLD for the purchase of political advantage in a larger picture.

On the one hand, I think it fair to say we have moved beyond the role of "lender of last resort" in the realm of bullion banking. If a commercial bank experiences an underwater position on its GOLD books, why would we risk metal to aid a hung counterparty when the dollar-system so easily allows such contract problems to be brusquely obscured with a lush hedge of derivatives? A paper solution to a paper contract problem!

On the other hand, there is the wider needs of GOLD within the official sector to attend to. Close to home we have ten acceding countries to the EU that shall initially pay 5% of their subscription share to the ECB. Then after at least two successful years under ERM II toward fulfilling the Maastricht convergence criteria, when the euro is adopted by each country their full subscription share is due, with expectations of 15% of the total as GOLD. Currently the GOLD holdings of these ten countries average less than a 4% share of their total reserves. In the big picture, it may be prudent for all parties concerned for an existing GOLD-rich EMU neighbor to ensure that these countries have no hardship securing access to any necessary GOLD.

More significantly, GOLD can be spent like political capital in buying the euro-friendly cooperation of significant economic bodies like China that may seek GOLD yet find it impossible to acquire at standard market outlets.

With a history of the American penchant for looting GOLD residing uppermost in your mind, if you were the President of an overseas entity that had a share of its precious GOLD being held under earmark by an American institution in New York (the Federal Reserve Bank), wouldn't you want to put your mind at ease, and perhaps even kill two birds with one stone? How might you go about this?

You start talking. If your friends are in need of GOLD, you make sure the price does not too soon get out of hand. Perhaps you prematurely mention the possibility of sales. Your friends will know you are serious about coming through for them.

Additionally, you do not want to ruffle feathers in Washington or New York by letting them think that you question their integrity as a custodian of your GOLD. You certainly do not ask to have it shipped back to you on your own behalf for no good reason.

What you CAN do, however, is to sell this quantity of earmarked GOLD in good faith to China, for example, who can then in good faith as the new owner announce that it is their national policy to request delivery of their new purchase for official CB holdings and also to help feed the growing domestic demand in their newly liberated GOLD market. Can you connect the final few dots for yourself and figure out WHY it has been liberated at this juncture in time?

And so you have it. Some talk to smooth the GOLD charts, and some sales as a fair price to achieve various long-term political ends. That is, buying a new monetary system at the lowest possible social cost; with absolute minimum of feather-ruffling or anything approaching a reapeat of the Great War(I).

In the end, I may not actually prove to be a spokesman for the Bundesbank, but you'd do well to heed this tale nevertheless.

Like a Rolling Stone: "Pleased to meet you. Won't you guess my name?"
MK
(01/12/2004; 09:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115157)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and the Daily Gold Market Report.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/12/2004; 09:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 115158)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 09:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115159)
What's in your Vault?
@ Slingshot

Too funny! Given the deluge of commercials on this theme, I have new visuals of the CABAL in my imagination, but I'm not sure if the more appropriate one is the hordes of pillagers or the flying demons!!!
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 10:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 115160)
You guys!
You guys are great! And our newest member, below, has just blown my "Hans und Ernst" imitation ("And ve are here to --- PUMP YOU UP!") out of the water, so I think I'll just shut up, and read...

(And if it turns out it really IS you, friend, know that I was forcibly made to study French in high school, when I, and many of my friends in the French class, really wanted to be taking German. So, it's really "language envy." Really.)
Knallgold
(01/12/2004; 10:02:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115161)
Reshuffling Gold without stepping on somebodys feet
Now that was an interesting post by Mr Welteke!Or Another Welteke...
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 10:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 115162)
Gold and silver morning
You can't keep a good gold down! Gold is breaking out from $424-5 battle. Silver has regained $6.65. Au/Ag ratio = 64

This dollar dead cat has a little more bounce, but not too much.


Ground Control to Rocket Man

For all you hardball fans, Roger Rocket has just announced signing with NASA . . . or was it the Astros - one of those Houston teams.

No golden parachute announced, but I wonder what's in his vaulit?!
slingshot
(01/12/2004; 10:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 115163)
Welcome
Welcome to the forum, Ernst Welteke.
Noticed your entry is priced in Euros.

Will your entry be calculated at the Euro today or at the contests closure day?
Slingshot------------<>
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 10:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 115164)
Fiat and Super-Fiat
I beg time for a second reading, Ernst/not-Ernst (you get to be both here -- if you can fill the boots!), but your explanation -- a good one! -- opens up some of our old questions here. Have you read our "Gold Trail" essays by Another, and his friend "FOA"?

You have correlated with two of my logical explanations of why the German bank (or any of the CBs) would sell their gold even when they strongly suspected its value might increase, dramatically, in years ahead.

1) You are building a new currency, and, if it becomes the world reserve currency, it is in itself a PROFITABLE franchise which increases in value annually, to the benefit of all who bank, earn, and spend in that currency. If "spreading out" the gold, helps to build this franchise, then the profit from one compensates the loss in the other over the long-term.

2) The gold, "deeply-stored" at West Point or other U.S. locations, is, ah, difficult to reach at the moment. It has been involved in other sensitive political dealings, remaining from decades of US-German history. Or, perhaps it has been involved in swaps between financial institutions of the two nations? Better to pass it on, and let someone else try to ship it home, as you suggest.

Questions: 1) Would that third party be aware of any difficulties in "collecting" on their gold purchase when time came to ship it? Why is it easier for them to get it shipped home?

2) Did the Euro-makers from the beginning know that they had the US Dollar-replacing winner in hand, and that their gold would ensure this?

and 3) WHY oh WHY didn't I buy that fixer-upper farmhouse in Tuscany when the Euro was at .85 USD???

"I rode a tank, in the general's rank, when the Blitzkrieg raged..."
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 10:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 115165)
Gold jewellery orders in India sink as price soars
http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4111879snippit:

"Indian families are not postponing weddings because of the gold price, but are buying less by weight and giving fewer jewellery gifts to the relatives of the bride and groom, Goyal said.

"Rich families are buying more diamonds and less gold," he said.

"People are buying less gold with the same money," Jain said.

In India, parents traditionally give gold jewellery to brides to provide financial security as gold can be sold quickly in hard times."

Goldilox:

Two observations

1) Diamonds? now there's a "FREE" and unfettered market!
2) "People are buying less gold with the same money," Jain said. - Brilliant journalistic observation
Eleanor of Aquitaine
(01/12/2004; 10:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115166)
Comparitive Charts in Daily Market Report
The comparitive charts in today's Daily Market Report, it seems as though we'd be hitting the high of the gold market in the second half of this year. Does anyone else see this possibility? Basically the chart seems to show the ramping up that happened throughout the 1970s as occurring in the compressed timeframe of 2002 and 2003 this time around.

What do you all make of this?

Thanks, Eleanor oA
DryWasher
(01/12/2004; 10:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115167)
@ Ernst Welteke � 333.0 (msg#: 115156)

Great post Sir Ernst Welteke, whoever you may be. I almost busted a gut laughing when I first saw your post, then after actually reading it I found it to be full of good solid food for thought.

Things may not be what they seem for sure. As to the question of what your name is, Aristotle is my guess.

Got Gold? You Bet.

DryWasher.
Cavan Man
(01/12/2004; 10:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115168)
@ E. Welteke
Hello FOA.
Belgian
(01/12/2004; 10:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 115169)
Interest Rates (IR)
IRs in $ and � remain low and will so for the remainder of the year. A small further decline is even very probable as TI is suggesting. These stable IRs are only possible for as long as the dollar remains supported in its orderly exchange rate adjustment. The dollar decline is not "yet" provoking price-inflation and this is another supportive element for the orderly unwinding (dollar purchasing power).
It is amazing that the rising $-price for oil isn't causing any dammage so far.
Clink!
(01/12/2004; 11:11:16 MDT - Msg ID: 115170)
Paul O'Neill Interview
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/09/60minutes/main592330.shtmlFor those of you (like me) who missed it on 60 Minutes last night. Interesting stuff.

C!
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 11:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115171)
Kemp
@ Toolie

More evidence that Bush is alienating some conservative support with fiscal recklessness.

In order to put to rest any confusion between Dubya and his father, I propose retitle them:

Bush the Elder, and Bush the Spender

Of course, by the time we get to "Patriot III", we may amend that to

Bush the Suspender

New Gold support ratios

House - 434:1 (Paul)
Senate - 99:1 (Kemp)
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 11:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 115172)
O'Neil
Listening to the MSNBC reporters' take on O'Neil's interview, one gets the impression that they believe opinions are anathema while in office and irrelevant afterwards. They also suggest that O'Neil was not a Washington "team player" (read: not a butt kisser).

It's interesting that they all jump on the fact that he was fired by GWB, but not a single one has mentioned that he was fired for sponsoring a report which revealed the true national indebtedness to be $44T, not the $6T more commonly reported (already $7T only one year later).

Fair and independent reporting, of course - let's not confuse a "political" issue with facts!
Belgian
(01/12/2004; 11:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115173)
@ WEALTHEKE
Loved your great "Cry" in the Gold "Town" ! 99,99 stuff...24 carat ! Brilliant...outstanding !
Paper Avalanche
(01/12/2004; 11:32:05 MDT - Msg ID: 115174)
@ Eleanor of Aquitaine
Greetings Lady Eleanor!

While it is certainly possible that we may encounter a top in the paper price of gold at some point this year, it is not as likely that we will see a repeat of the precipitous spike followed by the resulting collapse in the price of gold, as was the case in the early 80's following the run up in the 70's that you cite as a reference.

Why do I make such ststement? Because it is different now. To understand why the price of gold will not collapse in similar fashion this go around, one must first understand why it collapsed after the run up of the 70's. It was as much a political decision by the CB's of the time to retain the only reserve currency at that time so as to avoid a disorderly abandonment of said reserve currecy, the US$, which would have thrown the financial / industrilize economies into chaos. That was to be avoided at all costs, and it is the intent to TPTB, IMO, to avoid that situation during the transition from the US$ to the Euro / gold that we are now witnessing. It MUST be orderly. I would not want it to occur any other way since that might result in severe financial dislocations that could propel the financial world into disarray. However, to address your question more directly, as a reult of the US$ being abandoned eventually (and hopefully slowly) over the next few years, the run up and collapse in the price of gold will not repeat itself. Rather, through the collective agreement of the world's CB's, gold will be set free to find it's own value and serve once again as the consummate wealth preservation asset.

I hope that this provides you with some insight from a casual lurker. I am certain that others on this fine forum can provide you with a better, more detailed explanation. For now, I would encourage you to explore and understand the concept of "free gold" and why it will not cause a repeat of the 70's and 80's.

Take care.

PA
a nation of one
(01/12/2004; 11:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 115175)
****** 433.00 *******

Hi ! My [momentary] name is Ernst Welteke and I think that
Germany should sell its Gold because of three reasons.

1.) Germany has been behaving suicidally for many years now.
2.) Many non-Germans would like to destroy Germany permanently.
3.) If Germany were to sell its gold, that would tend to be
suicidal, and also pleasing to those who would like for
Germany to be destroyed.

Of course, being a German myself, I only recommend this
action because of the challenge to the German people which
it will provide, knowing, as I do, that, by rising to a
challenge, one becomes strengthened.

Liebst mir in Hertzen, Deutchland.
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 11:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115176)
Japan, and fun with figures...
http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=164518&tid=164518&fid=1☆t=201&sr=1&sb=1&snsa=A#M164518Great discussion at PruBear forum on currency intervention "sterilized" or otherwise, good research and thinking through the effects. If you've always wondered if now is the time your tired little brain might take on the mighty Central Bank big-brain Thinkers, then give this a click. Me, I need another coffee to get through it, but these PruBear posters are the real thing -- a good bunch!

And, with Eleanor of Aquitaine, and Ernst, and who knows what other luminaries arriving here from the financio-historic cosmos, I've the impulse to re-title myself "Danny and Peachy" (from John Huston's The Man Who Would Be King (1975 -- Connery & Caine)) as I know when I'm out of my league amongst bankers and royals, and can only make a go of it by traversing snowy Himalayan fastnesses and fading the superstitions isolated native populations more ignorant than myself.

I am reading up on (and, yes, trading into) silver miners and explorers today. Tiny, TINY positions, true -- but it is exciting to buy a thousand of something. Of what, I may never know, although I suppose you could drive to some of them. Or hitch up the sled dogs.

But I just thought I'd warn the population in general to escape, as my arrival is usually the K.O.D., or "bacia della morte" for an investment holding. However, me haven't been doing _too_ bad lately, have me? I guess some things are just too strong for my bad ju-ju to overwhelm... ;-)

(BTW: Ernst -- I do not dispute the idea of "alternative" identities doing good educational work here. Have you ever been to one of those historic re-enactment sites, like Jamestown, Virginia, the Mayflower Colony at Plymouth, or the ship Bounty complete with Captain Bligh & Fletcher Christian? The staff there plays their roles, in period, and in character, in order to give visitors the most educational experience possible in our time. I love those!

Or the individuals who portray Sam Clemens (Mark Twain) or Thomas Jefferson, on TV specials, or in person.

I would not object to a site in which several conscientious students of monetary matters took on the roles of "avatar" -- essentially, the virtual personality -- of a public figure who, for policy reasons, could not be known to be present in person.

That substituting person could come amazingly close to conveying the ideas which the official person cannot disclose in public. Enough to get the "class" thinking, discussing, perhaps understanding. YOU have certainly done this for your namesake, E.W., and pointedly shown that OUR group needs to take a more thoughtful approach corresponding to your own.

And, what better cover for the actual official person to come in under? A discussion site filled with "virtual" offical characters, all known or thought to be well-studied substitutes. Talk about plausible deniability...!

All right, that's enough coffee talking...auf wiedersehen!
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 11:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115177)
"Different this Time"
@PA

Your post: "Why do I make such statement? Because it is different now."

Careful. You sound much like the Wall St. HUCKSTERS as they describe the jobless recovery!

-G
Pizz
(01/12/2004; 12:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 115178)
(No Subject)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2004/0112.htmlGood read over at financial sense by Jim Willie.

He seems to be having a bit of trouble trying to figure out what industries and what pent up demand will lead the economy forward. At least from private industry, if there is such a thing any more. . .
------------------------------
Biggest growth industries as far as I can see are:

Collection Agencies
Credit Counciling
Bankrupsy specialists
Outsourcing Consultants
Government (for a while)

Cause it sure isn't going to be autos. . .and his comment on the decimation of the used vehicle market is right on. . .

Pizz

contrarian
(01/12/2004; 12:16:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115179)
bullandbearwise.com chart
That chart comparing 70s rise to current rise is quite remarkable. It indicates a peak around September, if the correspondence is to be believe.

I do think that the price movement upward is being managed as much as possible, so as not to be too drastic, but I do think that as the price goes up, a tipping point will be reached, at which point things will get out of control and the price will soar.

Looks like, according to this chart, that point would be around $500. Sinclair would know more on this.

I don't think, however, that the high point will be a spike like in 1980--I think it will just the first plateau of increasing upswings up to an eventual price in $3000 range, as Richard Russell predicts.

Call me an optimist!
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 12:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 115180)
Funny!
http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.aspRob Peebles is funny -- "too sophisticated to save"

"Here is last year's score: Grasshoppers 10, Ants 0.

"By extrapolating last year's results forward the course of action for the future is obvious.

"Stop saving!

"Instead of saving, the real key is to "make your assets work for you." And last year we learned that one of the best ways to make assets work up a good sweat is to do a cash out refi along with a home improvement loan or two."

G: In our brain-dead ("Daddy will rescue me"; or, "I'll just go spill my guts at a 12-step meeting for debtors") society, which cannot hold two thoughts in its head simultaneously, they cannot therefore get that:

(1) As you age, you must save. And,

(2) You must save in a medium that will be, well, SAFE. There be pirates in these waters...
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 12:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 115181)
1970's vs. 2000's Comparo
@ contrarian

I think Sincair was saying that his $480 target was based on predicted dollar devaluation. After that point, non-dollar related influences take over and become stronger driving factors in PM appreciation.

I wouldn't bet that the fit of 1970 data to current will continue as closely as some suggest, but a lot of evidence suggests it will continue.

Notice the $'s fall corrected some today and gold's initial climbing motion was interrupted but not reversed. We're getting hints that gold is decoupling from inverse dollar moves. It is not a PURE anti-dollar play. This suggests to me that appeciation vs. all currencies is more likely in the near future.

Silver seems to have already shrugged off complete dollar dependence, so maybe it is a leading indicator of what is to come in gold. Movement seems constrained by some market confusion, but upward resumption could possibly be very violent.

Got gold? The window appears to be shrinking.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 13:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 115182)
DX
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12Just to put today's dollar rally into perspective, look at it on a one-year chart - barely a blip!
Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 13:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115183)
Feeding Kitty
Kitty lives outside, but can be heard through the window when he's hungry enough.

I scoop a random amount of food into his bowl. Kitty does not care if the bowl is full, half-full, quarter-, etc. "There is food in my bowl." On/off switch.

Not -- "A full bowl, hmmmm... Perhaps if I moved half of this over to storage, then I wouldn't get so hungry in the middle of the night." You get my drift.

I can get back to work. Kitty eats, goes off.

Most humans? (USAmericans, too, methink.) On/off. Food in bowl, money in checking, card not maxed.

Not aware enough to save. Let alone figure price/earnings on stock investments. Let alone figure in effects of interest rates on future value of returns. Let alone figure results of derivative payloads in money center banks. Any baby steps taken in saving are undone by larger forces or deceptions.

What percentage of individuals are knowing, willing, and able to perform CAPITAL ACCUMULATION at a level that can measurably affect their survival as they reach old age? 5%? Less?

In most countries, in most times, Capital Accumulation takes other forms than IRAs and Gov retirement plans.

Most Americans might as well be living in a mountain village in Afghanistan, counting on a rack of sons to feed them in old age. Guinea pigs in a massive die-off experiment.



Federal_Reserves
(01/12/2004; 14:15:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115184)
Treasury supports strong dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040112/economy_treasury_dollar_1.htmlToday a Treasury offical came out and said we support
the strong dollar policies even though it has been collapsing for quite some time. Rumors of Japan/Euro
to step in to support, but that is continuous.

All this on a day when the energy and grain sector in the CRB were blazing like a forest fire.

While commodity prices are soaring on strong foreign demand and weak dollar, wages paid in the US show signs of weakening with both average weekly and hourly earnings down along with gross labor demand (only 1k in new jobs) all this in the most recent government reporting.

Great divergence and change in this global economy. This is an unstable situation.

Mr Gresham
(01/12/2004; 14:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 115185)
Feeding Kitty, pt deux
Should say that Kitty has some predators about, too, -- raccoons -- so saving wouldn't be as easy as one might imagine. ;-)

I guess my beef with US Americans is that they/we/I had an opportunity to play decades of highstakes monetary capital accumulation, but in a league that was beyond them. A lifetime in the privileged Dollar realm.

Cash flow that people in a rural village in Central America would envy mucho, indeed would never see in their entire lifetimes. Cash flow that families in Thailand have to send an attractive daughter off to work in Bangkok to ever hope to see the first glimmer of.

You see it sometimes when Asian families come to the US, 15 family members live in a house, and 10 jobs are held among the adults of that household. Accumulating capital -- FAST! Opportunity seen, and seized!

Now we are equalizing -- FAST -- to the rest of the world's standard of living, i.e., poverty. Actually, we will be sliding further below Europe than we already are, and meeting the middle states on the way up.

And the stores are still filled with trinkets. Trinkets that -- dollar for dollar, item for item -- will be the price of a meal not eaten in years ahead.

Seven fat years, wasted. Seven lean years to follow. But, maybe, seventy, and seventy?

Operative
(01/12/2004; 14:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 115186)
@ Mr. Gresham
Your last post is a bleak one today. My trouble is I can find no fault in your thinking, or the facts as borne out by the American public at large.

My wife's b'day was on the ninth. She has behaved herself for the most part this year so I decided to splurge and pamper her for a day at one of those fancy spas. I asked how business was doing. The answer came back "really good". I asked the owner how business compared to last year and the reply was not what I expected. Sales were up, but payments via cash or check were almost nonexistent compared to a year ago. She estimated that 95-98 percent where paying with credit card! This country is in for a wide awakening, much too soon for most of them/us.
Melting Pot
(01/12/2004; 15:04:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115187)
Inflation = Deflation in a fractional reserve usury system
The System you are dependant upon to provide your existance is called the "Floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system"

I�ve studied it for 10 years and it is in the terminal phase of collapse which will produce a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt...

The main event will be as worse or worse than the depression in the US in the 1780�s on a global basis...The US economic system which has been hopelessly dependant on debt inflation to be created in great enough quantities to overpower debt deflationary forces for 45 years is fast approaching the system�s theoretical maximum potential to produce debt inflation...

Money is debt

Currently in the US debt is being created faster than the world can realisticly absorb it causing a debt glut which is the reason why US debt dollars are losing their value in relation to everything else...

Once the US reaches it�s maximum potential to use previously created debt to leverage new debt into creation in greater quantities the 45 year debt inflationary ponzi scheme collapses into a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt...

"This process of "debt deflation" (a term coined by the early twentieth-century American economist Irving Fisher was important in the U.S. deflation and depression of the 1930s"-Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the Economics Roundtable, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California
July 23, 2003

Not important...The "Paramount cause"

Note: The Great Depression in the US in the 30�s was the result of the hyperdeflationary implosion of 16 years of debt inflation...

This time it is 45+

Other than some sort of external (Asteroid impact) or natural (Supervolcanic eruption) A hyperdeflationary implosion of a debt backed my debt system is the greatst manmade destructive event behind Global nuclear war...

It is the purest of pure economic terror which is currently beyond 99.99999% of the general population to even begin to comprehend...

Here is the Basic mechanics of a debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system...

1.the inflation of debt and the destruction of savings 1958-2004-05 The US officially announced to the world we were in this system in 1971 with the closing of the GOLD window...

Once the system reaches it�s maximum potential to inflate debt which will happen this year or next then...

2. Deflation of debt and the destruction of equity...late 2004 to early 2006...

The deflation of debt will be unstoppable do to the fact the Federal Reserve does not have the ability to lower rates below zero...

an unstoppable hyperdeflationary implosion of debt will result leading to...

3.Bankruptcy of the banks, Collapse of the economy, and consolidation of power...

Great depression will begin some time in 2006...

Wipe the hope from your minds...reguardless of what happens there is nothing that can be done to prevent this from happening...the only way to prevent debt deflation is by producing a greater amount of debt inflation...Later this year or in 2005 the "Floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system�s" ability to produce a greater amount of debt inflation to overpower debt deflation will become a mathmatical impossibility...and a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt which has been postponed for 45 years will flood out, overwhelm the system and be totally unstoppable...

GOLD and Silver if not banned or confiscated should be one of the last commodities to deflate...

Don�t believe me? Big deal Just watch it unfold there is no escape unfortunately...

This is just a pathetic public service announcement directed at people who want to give a shit...You believe or you don�t...Non belief will not change destiny...We have been marching towards economic doomsday for 45 years and there is no turning back...

Inflate debt or die...

by Hypertiger
Dollar Bill
(01/12/2004; 15:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 115188)
*>*............
Greetings Great Aristotle.
Today I read Arthur Levitts book. He was head of the SEC.
During the Clinton era and perhaps beyond.
Anyone who doubts manipulation is rampant should read his book. I had daydreamed about teaching stock market analysis to a couple of the younger boys, as I enjoyed learning in the 60's. But, I didnt, because I didnt want to have to discuss the extent of things you have to watch out for that are, well, criminal frankly.
Mr Levitt leaves me sputtering incoherently about what a change has happened in these 40 years.
Pizz
(01/12/2004; 15:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 115189)
Mr. G
Spot on regarding debt and other economic issues today IMHO, but you could have waited a couple days on your silver share playing around. . . I expected a bounce (up) today (smile).

Pizz
steady
(01/12/2004; 15:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 115190)
diminishment
have you ever seen anything like the diminishment occuring on planet earth anywhere else in your travels through the solar systems ?

Dollar Bill
(01/12/2004; 15:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115191)
*>*
Ernst Welteke, thank you for the great education !
That is not 30 words or less !
But you should win the prize :)
Any price guess?
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 15:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115192)
Daily Silver Analysis
snippit:

""We reassert out view that there is little, if any, real fundamental basis for the recent surge in silver but the speculative appetite for the metal is ravenous and simply must be respected," a Barclays Capital Research note said."

Goldilox:

Rich, are you looking for a job? Barclay's has an obvious need!!!
Chris Powell
(01/12/2004; 16:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115193)
GATA delegation to attend Vancouver conference
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1836Bill Murphy to lead GATA delegation at Vancouver
International Resources Investment Conference.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
CoBra(too)
(01/12/2004; 16:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115194)
Welteke - No POG guess due to volatility ....
My name is Ernst Welteke � Ernst, like in earnest, honest and serious. I'm the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank and as it is - it is the guardian and protector of the currency's value.
My predecessors have done a great job in re-establishing the Deutsch Mark as one of the strongest currencies in the industrialized world. � Quite a feat, I can assure you in view of Weimar Repuplic style hyper-inflation, followed by Nazi Germany and WWII.
I'm really proud, though, of their achievements, as our nation has regained its standing since.
With the advent of the common EU currency, the �, all has changed. And I do feel I'm going to have to take advantage of the fact, that others have now to carry a fair share of the burden of the DM. It's only fair, or is it?

We've been spearheading the � and with it the Maastricht Criteria for so long, that it may be time to listen to the Keynesian arguments of my friend Hans Eichel and get the economy going at all costs.

And in the end, who in hell gives a hoot, when we follow in the footsteps of midgets a la `Greenspan, Snow and other dreamers on , of sandmen.

Enough of an preamble, though now I'd ask you, why we shouldn't also sell some of our gold? After all it seems to be a better deal now than it was when the Brits sold out at rock bottom. And the strategy is still to fund R&D, mind you on the interest only. Remember, gold doesn't pay interest and hence funds nothing ... well, I'll leave you with this thought before I discourage any Q & A's - ...

Wow, I've done a great job, they're eating crow and don't know that the gold I intend to sell is already sold twice. Not a slice nor bar, nor coin left to sell anyway � though, when the public wakes up to the fact � I'll be in deep retirement, uh, hopefully not storage yet.
You bet! And as long as aces of that ilk � I'm sure it's not spelled asses � are around and abound the monetary system is in jeopardy. Well, in itself it's not really new. By historical standards the dollar reserve system has held up pretty well since taking over from the Pound, when Sterling was abandoned.

Oh, Gold was abandoned, too � as the ultimate reserve. SDR's, issued by the IMF � controlled by the US FED, took ist place � by law? No way � Legal Tender- though!

Love me tender,
love me true ...

I'll spare you the rest as one contender was cheating and while he hopes to get away
with his extra-marital affairs, his misdemeanors are catching up � relentlessly.

AS the days of the dollar pricing in the most important commodities is drawing to an end, the seignorage of the dollar system is exhibiting signs of fatigue. I'm not sure, after all, if Mr. Ernst W. is protecting the system, GWB or his own ass.

I'm only sure, if and when Ernst W. sells some of Germany's gold � which he may not have � I'll still be around to pick up some scratch, or is it called scrap?!
cb2


steady
(01/12/2004; 16:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 115195)
speculation? huh............
speculation computation revulation gold silver ratio going to rock the precious metals nation..... what in the tarnation ,, you dun be needen an espanation cause 50 to 1 is going to come and even then it wont be done, but getting there and beyond should be tons of fun.
speculation revulation computation gold will be shining in admiration when the move of a generation finishes its gyrations and those holding still in the silver nations will be regarded with admirations, so dont despaire its all fair simple as 16 to one. now u know. so this is done you can go now and join us in the silver gold ratio historical specualtion sure to last at least this generation and please stop acting with such indignation towards our camp we really arent low life scumbag tramps, infact some even collect stamps so the clamps dont bring out or we will have to shout 16 - 1! the fun has begun, im done.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 16:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 115196)
Steady's Rap
At least now we know Sir Steady wears his baseball cap backwards and cuts the fingers out of his gloves!

Silver's back over $6.60 in after hours on the strength of his rap!
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 16:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 115197)
Cheney says "Deficits Don't Matter"
In a surprise twist, VP Dick Cheney said today that "Deficits don't matter", hinting that he plans a surprise holiday present after he leaves the Bush ticket next year. Insiders have suggested that his present is a blind payoff of 2004's' blind budget deficit directly from his blind trust based on the earnings of his blind Halliburton stock option.

"I see", said the blind man, though he could not see at all.
CoBra(too)
(01/12/2004; 17:27:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115198)
ECB and EU
Are they getting more articulate against an almost freefall of the reserve currency?

I would guess they are.

The liberty of the hegemonial currency has already scraped around its boundaries and repercussions - as in beggar your neighbor - may not be too far off.

After all the global reserve currency has not only acquired the largest debt load in history relative to its GDP - and it still is only an IOU - it is forced to expand the same at an ever increasing pace in order to keep up - pretenses!

This situation is starting to develop into the greatest global scam ever.

And the endgame is clear - legal tender will be tinder -
Got gold and some silver for your daily needs?

cb2

PS: As a personal matter - I was happy to see Dubya in place - though have had my misgivings. Meantime, and I mean -MEAN- this guy is not fit to lead the (former) free world - including his acolytes.
With this kind of leadership, the world would be better off in total anarchy ... imho ...
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/12/2004; 17:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 115199)
Your friend in the business, helping you enter the market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 18:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115200)
Australian dollar surges to new high
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s1024438.htmsnippit:

"The US dollar has come under continued selling pressure, sending the euro to new all-time highs and the Australian dollar tipping a new six-and-a-half year high.

Foreign exchange trade in the London session saw investors wary after last week's disappointing employment growth figures in the United States.

The single European currency climbed to a new record peak of $US1.29.

However, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has now expressed some concern about what he has termed the "brutal" moves in foreign exchange markets.

The euro has spent the New York session pulling back.

The Australian dollar initially dipped with the euro before climbing again to hit 78.02 US cents, the strongest it has been since May 1997.

It was at 77.84 4 US cents at 6:30am AEDT, which is back at the levels of Monday's local close.

On the cross-rates this morning, it was at 61.02 euros; 82.92 Japanese yen; 42.17pence Sterling; and against the New Zealand dollar, it was at $1.41."

Goldilox:

Strong currency resource suppliers are beginning to fear their ability to compete in a global market.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 18:24:18 MDT - Msg ID: 115201)
Ministry Creates $3.55Bln Stabilization Fund
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/01/12/045.htmlsnippit"

"Reuters
The government plans to channel 103.5 billion rubles ($3.55 billion) to a recently established stabilization fund, aimed at keeping the economy on an even keel if oil prices fall, the Finance Ministry said Friday.

The government is to set aside money from times when oil prices are high to tide it over during any gaps in revenue from falls in oil prices later on. It will pay money into the fund when oil prices exceed $20 per barrel.

"The funds of the federal budget to be transferred to the stabilization fund are estimated at 103.5 billion rubles," a ministry spokeswoman said. Ministry officials had previously planned to transfer some 80 billion-90 billion rubles of the 2003 budget surplus to the fund.

Over the next few years the government wants to raise some 500 billion rubles for the fund, which will invest in top-rated foreign sovereign bonds."

Goldilox:

I wonder where they ever got that idea? Bugger-thy-neighbor funds?
Gonlyold
(01/12/2004; 18:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115202)
******407.5******
Hi! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because it will aid in reducing the POG while giving corrobative support to the position that TPTB are not responsible for gold's lack of luster as an investment vehicle. Also, by supporting TPTB, we would be in a position such that if TPTB do succeed in establishing their New World Order with its associated new monetary/currency/gold devaluation and confiscation laws, we will be in a position whereby we will have paid off some bills, invested in oil and food, and would then be in a cash position to not only forestall any attack against our own loan obligations, but will be in a position to reap the spoils of a devastated U.S./world economy at a discounted price. Perhaps we could buy U.S. Park Place with multitudes of hotels on it (as in the game Monopoly). Lastly, we hope to benefit from some heretofore unknown behind the scenes agreements to obtain some Iraqi contracts, money, and oil. Sometimes you have to be a brown nose and give up a little to gain a lot.
Cavan Man
(01/12/2004; 19:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115203)
@ E. Welteke
(and the momentary return of Another)Definitely ANOTHER
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 20:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 115204)
Daily Reckoning
http://www.dailyreckoning.comBill Rees-Moog on imbalances:

"Even China is not free from problems. An undervalued currency is obviously helpful as a way of undercutting one's neighbors and promoting exports. China has tens of millions of workers to introduce into its expanding modern economy. But an undervalued currency introduces inflationary pressures, and China is beginning to suffer from them.

At some point, the renminbi will have to be revalued against the dollar, or floated. Floating would be much the better solution. The present situation, in which the dollar and the renminbi are tied together, but all the other major currencies are floating, is illogical and damaging for all of them. President Abraham Lincoln said that one cannot have "two nations - one slave and one free." It would be equally true to say that the world cannot have two sets of currencies, one floating and one fixed. That is particularly true when the fixed currency is the most competitive on Earth.

The dollar will not be able to settle down to a more stable rate so long as it is fixed to the renminbi. Nor will the euro return to a more competitive level. At present the United States and China are like two fugitives from a chain gang, tied together at the ankle. It may, however, be difficult to cut off their fetters until the U.S. presidential election is out of the way."
R Powell
(01/12/2004; 20:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 115205)
Goldilox
Thanks for the report from Barclays Capital Research. I didn't see any link so I took the google cyber secret passage to their site and found a subscription (pay per view) situation.

I'm curious. Was that the extent of their report? It is amazing how much information can be found on even obscure subjects such as how much soybean oil is produced by one bushel of soybeans and the potential for changes from the norm when the beans are somewhat stressed (and smaller) due to a three week drought during precisely the pod filling timeframe. But, try to get any numbers related to silver supply, demand or existing stores and see how far you get!

Lease rates for silver have been rising since about the beginning of this price uptrend. This usually implies a temporary physical shortage in London. That London market has grown even smaller over recent years but is still a market indicator, I guess. Unfortunately, I can offer nothing to explain silver's recent strength other than what those lease rates may be implying. Or, it may have been time for silver to catch up with the other metals. I was surprised that gold could breach $400 without silver breaking $6.00. Maybe it's just catch-up time, or maybe, just maybe, it's the start of a huge run-up due to "not enough silver". ?? Unfortunately, when that real shortage induced move does arrive, it will look just like all the other false alarms from years' before. This is an exercise in long term investing. But, even if this move does now retract, I believe that the general price inflation of all tangibles ought to keep silver in a new higher trading range, no? Actually, I think she'll make higher highs and higher lows from here on for some years to come. Just like gold!
Any other news or thoughts??
Rich
Toolie
(01/12/2004; 21:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 115206)
Ernst
How might I know when Uncle Sam gives in to the desire to posses that which is not his?
otish mountain
(01/12/2004; 22:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 115207)
Mr. Gresham .....Kitty
Interesting posts from you today. I ponder these same thoughts daily as I observe my community go about their daily lives - oblivious - to everything except consumerism.

I think though you do injustice comparing Kitty to humans as you describe. My Alex (named after the actor in A Clock
Work Orange) had an amazing ability to leave his bowl untouched for weeks while he went on his journeys.

Surviving is not problem for Alex or Kitty.
mikal
(01/12/2004; 22:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 115208)
A Gold/Silver carry trade suggestion
For those of you who lately, strut out silver. If you insist on prejudice against gold, much like some PM equities devotees, exuberant with certain victory.
I suggest a simple trade to the benefit of all.
Sell or trade your gold to Centennial Precious Metals, if you have any left, in exchange for silver. Not only will they appreciate your business, but you will be supporting the rest of us in two ways:
I) To provide financial support for the Forum, News and Views, Daily Market Report, Archives, Gilded Opinion, Hall of Fame, Golden Trail, 24-Hour News Links, etc.
II) To extend the window of buying opportnity for your grateful, deserving friends on the forum and clients of Centennial who will need to secure scanty supplies to face the Kondratieff Winter, inflation and numerous election year, tag-team assaults on American dignity.
So please don't complain to this man
When the brown suddenly hits the fan
And you be eating out of a can,
Or sifting gold dust from a pan
When you could have seen the plan
To make only gold get top elan.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 22:24:36 MDT - Msg ID: 115209)
Barclay's report
@ Rich

I took that exerpt from a Gold Eagle Daily metals report, so I saw no more than what I copied.
Goldilox
(01/12/2004; 22:33:31 MDT - Msg ID: 115210)
Poetry wars in Precious -
Mikal and steady-

If only all wars could be fought with poetry!! Battle on, gentlemen. At least this will be one war worthy of publication.

Otish and Mr G.-

Thunder (my tabby) is 11 and still a great mouser. His one consession to civilization is that he comes running when I shake the treat bag, as he loves his WhiskaLickins. Beyond that, however, he cares not.
slingshot
(01/12/2004; 23:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115211)
Midas Crusade
Gandalf rode till the smoke was so thick that he could not see the road ahead. He turned south and soon entered the Epis to protect him and Shadowfax from the raging fire.
He heard the roar of the fire and the bursting of the tree tops as it approached. Smoke turned to light and heat. Embers danced like fireflys. The Epis was now golden with the reflection of the flames. Shadowfax shivered as he stood in the cold water. Gandalf patted his neck and spoke to him. It will be soon over and we can warm ourselves by the embers on the shoreline, my friend.
The fire raced by them and Gandalf and Shadowfax moved to shore. Quickly Gandalf dismounted and took his dry beding down from behind his saddle. One blanket to dry his friend and the second to cover and warm him.
When he finished and could see that Shadowfax did not shiver he thought. How many made the crossing? He knew of the plans to cross the Epis but were they in time?
Cougar and Leona knew that they could not stay at the hidden passage and rode back to the Mozul. When they arrived they encountered Sir Ari and Sir Belgian. With them was a multitude of Goldbugs.
Hail, Sir Ari and Sir Belgian! said Cougar. They raise their hands in reponse.
What has happen? asked Sir Belgian. Cougar replied, We do not know for sure as to safety of our forces at Hammerton.
We have stay behind to show you a passage across the Epis, long forgotten. Gandalf has ridden to Hammerton when suddenly the smoke was upon us. I fear for them all.
Who is this woman? Sir Ari asked casting a stern eye.
Leona, said Cougar, She has shown us a hidden passage of the Epis. She is a friend of Gandalf and Omar.
Sir Belgian then spoke. There is nothing to do but wait till the fire burns out.
It was not long before the fire reached the Mozul and they retreated to the safety of the open dry lake bed.
The next day Omar had placed a few sentries in front of the West Gate. Sir M.K. and Sir Black Blade had crossed the Epis with the main force. Sir M.K. called to Sir Black Blade.
Send the Scots back. Let them play again, said Sir M.K.

Sir Black Blade, waved the Goldbug Banner to draw attention to Omar. The ferry was unharmed and soon the Scots made a second crossing. Now they were in full veiw for the underbrush had been burned away.

Those in Hammerton filled the walls when they began to play.
How could this be? they asked themselves.

Sir Black Blade and Sir M.K. knew they had to block the entrance of the East Gate and rode to take up defensive positions. But it was not to be so.

Therroth had reached the East Gate.

He sent a portion of his army into Hammerton while he himself standing alone, watched as the Goldbugs come into his sight.

His eyes flashed from beneath his headdress.

Gandalf stirred. We must go my friend, he said to Shadowfax.

Leona, standing in the midst of the Knights and Cougar as they conversed blurted out, We must go now!

Slingshot---------------<>
Waverider
(01/12/2004; 23:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115212)
Sir Ernst Welteke ***** 435.50 *****
Cavan Man - I'm with you...I think that we have been honored with a visit from Another or maybe FOA! BUT - he graced us with a question today which no-one yet has attempted to answer...or maybe the answer is obvious to others here and not I.

Sir Welteke:"Why would we talk publically about consideration of sales or actually pursue such sales? I assure you, it would not be to increase the dollar-portion of our reserve position! If we hint about it now, or if we sold GOLD in coming years, it would all be for leverage -- using GOLD for the purchase of political advantage in a larger picture.

First, please note the similarity of this statement with FOA: "Gold has always been the most political metal our world has ever known; political because it offers so much power to those that hold it in their hand...[and]...Apart from our Western trading crowd, who consistently lose their money, Euro owners and Physical Gold Advocates own these items with no intentions of selling these to make more dollars. They hold them because the world financial system is changing faster than trading can compensate; and this trend will accelerate to run right over traders as their markets shut down around them. Believe it."
...and...
Sir Welteke: "If your friends are in need of GOLD, you make sure the price does not too soon get out of hand. Perhaps you prematurely mention the possibility of sales. Your friends will know you are serious about coming through for them...What you CAN do, however, is to sell this quantity of earmarked GOLD in good faith to China, for example, who can then in good faith as the new owner announce that it is their national policy to request delivery of their new purchase for official CB holdings and also to help feed the growing domestic demand in their newly liberated GOLD market. *Can you connect the final few dots for yourself and figure out WHY it has been liberated at this juncture in time?"*

Waverider: This is indeed *the* question of the day! I need some help with this please...Aristotle..Belgian...CB2...but I will hesitate to say that China has (had) a long term plan of Gold accumulation. While the CBs were busy selling their Gold through the '90s, China was quietly accumulating. Still - the question posed by Sir Welteke is *why* have they strategically chosen this juncture in time to liberate their Gold market? I would say because the Chinese government is satisfied with what they now have for reserves (if such satisfaction is possible) - I don't think they would liberalize their Gold market *before* they perceived adequate reserves. So why now? Is it an attempt to continue increasing the Gold holdings of their country through private ownership, AND to spark physical demand to increase the valuation of their substantial reserves...but not for monetary purposes...but that it may be used for barter as an oil-trading median to partially settle oil trades? To quote FOA, "Only, don't expect your gold to become money, it won't! It will become the most valuable wealth asset in your portfolio,,,,, by a long shot. For the simple thinker; gold is good. That's all we need to know. For the man with a question: Gold must rise in value many many times just to regain it's wealth barter asset value. Perhaps $10,000 to start. Then, it will run with any and all dollar inflation,,,,,.." Soooo...has this to do with the price of oil, depreciating US$, Hubbert's Peak, and the phenomenol energy needs of China (in competition with Japan) over the next 25+ years? Is (has) China positioned itself for use of Gold for oil? Help me out here please...are there other ideas on why the Chinese Gold market has been liberated at this juncture in time? Oh yes...what has this to do with German Gold sales - as articulated by Mr. Welteke, you keep good relations with a neighbor in need because you don't know when you yourself may be in need!
slingshot
(01/13/2004; 00:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 115213)
Hail,Sir mikal
Let us not slander the metal of the moon.
For the trouble of the world will find us soon.
Honest trade for the metal of old.
True ratio from silver to Gold.

Let us not deprive, a lifting of the soul.
The transference of silver to Gold.
But rejoice that it can be sold.
At a proper price, at USAGOLD.

Slingshot------------<>
slingshot
(01/13/2004; 00:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 115214)
Gold for oil/China
Why is it that gold is only associated with oil. China is a vast terrain and I think it may have riches yet undiscovered.
How about gold for stategic metals readily available above ground to be forge into a war machine? An upcoming economic tiger and military might to flex and protect its interest.
Slingshot---------<>
steady
(01/13/2004; 05:40:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115215)
DeR BaCk............................
will the statistical average work, or will d digits in d hundreds place be meaningless?
steady
(01/13/2004; 06:08:44 MDT - Msg ID: 115216)
Regular honest hours.
when will the bosses over at comex return to regular hours?

what did they think we would forget?
since the unforgetable day of 9/11 they still havent been able to reopen the comex one time for regualr hours.
what a joke, what a facade of honesty, of fairness and openess when they cant even stay open for the regualr hours. hey did tehy take a pay cutr since they are working less? or did the part time paper pushing gold slackers just turn a blind eye.
well blind eye this u chumps your day is coming the world realizes how corrupt, you have been how reckless you treated the gold and is in the process of paying you back, no wonder yall are afraid to open for regualr hours to give our trading time back to us. and yes u are in the process of being routed from 330 on up. and nope that aint krupt, so just give it up surrendear and we can hold everything we hold dear, resists and well who knows when the smoke clears but rest assred when it does will be no where near to be founds , in fact this sound , yea that one the one heard form timbucktoo to kalamzoo come on even you can join tooo

zubazoom, zubazoom, zubazoom, open comex to regular hours, zubazzom zubazoom , even if it leads tp upir doom, cause at this rate yo will see it sooner than later, understad physical gold owner hater?
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 06:51:11 MDT - Msg ID: 115217)
*>*
Does Germany have to sell its gold through normal channels?
Can it sell it to a oil selling country or countries, as payment for that country deciding to take euro for oil payment? What france and germany tried to do with saddam, get oil for euro trade by dealing with a madman, a very vicious one at that, with sons groomed to take over that were at least as vicious as saddam, a massive problem for the world and promising to get worse as the sons took over...
Now, could Germany be acting smarter by dealing gold for that oil for euro advantage? And dealing with more sane govts?
Financial historians will not be kind to the saddam backers.
If I was in germanys position, I would trade the gold for Euro/oil dealings with as many oil countries as I could.
Since the euro boys are makeing sounds like they really dont want to intervene in currency markets to lower the euro, they dont want to get tied into the dollar support system more, is their only way out, is their only chance at reserve status if oil countries, or at least some, start trading oil for euro? And if so, it would be worth it to trade away gold. Just Guessing of course.
Is this why Blair now says 2007 for euro joining? Because he figures the oil countries will switch more to euro by then?
Lets see, how to put that in 30 words.
**502**If I trade away my gold to a couple willing oil countries, they will trade oil for euro's. I can buy Lybia out from under Bush and Blair perhaps !
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 07:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115218)
*>*
Is this deficeit, trashing the dollar, move intended, maybe solely intended, to force the euro region to intervene in the currency markets? Once the euro starts that, isnt it not hard for Japan and the US to manipulate the currency market to siphon off all the excess euro's needed to make sure and keep the euro from getting stronger as a currency?
By stronger, I mean independently standing. Not price.
Using the bashing of the euro regions 18% trade with dollar regions, down till it hurts too much, so that the euro will
spend its euro's buying dollars?
This subject is over my head, but, with Cheney saying deficeits are not a problem, it must not only not be a problem, but an essential policy tool.
Squeeze the euro in line with Japan and China?
With chirac and co. fighting the us so much in the WTO, it IS a war.
Clink!
(01/13/2004; 07:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115219)
@ Lady Waverider
"The" question indeed !

If, as Sir Ernst implies, Germany transfers/sells/whatever any of its gold to China (and note that it was made clear in a subsequent, damage-control release that he is asking for the OPTION of selling gold, not to sell gold itself - got to keep the potential client on the hook, after all), this would solve a number of problems :-

1/ If Germany can't, for political reasons, move its gold out of the USA, then China has a lot more weight in Washington, being the number 2 supplier to the US. As part of the deal, China could be 'persuaded' to float its currency, which would look like a victory for the USA in the negotiations. So China gets gold and a few less bits of paper in return for its exports.

2/ Why would China want gold ? With the combination of fiery growth internally, and pressure to unlock the dollar-renmimbi exchange rate, China is going to be faced with serious inflation problems (as will every other country, for that matter, but I digress). The Chinese are reported to be a great nation of savers, but if an entire nation sees its hard-earned savings being devoured by inflation, what better way to maintain social order by providing a means for every person to maintain their wealth ? Not that I think the Chinese leadership is being deliberately nice to their people, it's just that they see it as easier to maintain their long-term position if they are benevolent dictators.

3/ Why would Germany (or, rather, the EU) want to supply China with gold ? Because they are friends ? Well, I wouldn't go that far, but in many ways the European and Oriental mindset is much closer than to the US one, in that they both have a much, much longer timeframe. The reasons why have probably been the subject of several books, but it has to do with where you see yourself in the continuum of your culture. It may be that some leaders (and I don't necessarily mean senior politicians !) are thinking of which countries are still going to be interesting to do business with in 50 years ?

But, bottom line, none of us has much of a clue as we are not privy to the real forces shaping our world. All we see is a facade, probably at several degrees of remove from reality. Hopefully here, we are at least one layer deeper than the MSNBC watchers, but I can't shake off the feeling that there is someone, somewhere reading this forum with huge amusement at how wrong we are in our speculations. Enough paranoia, I'm just going to go out and buy another copy of 'Catcher in the Rye' ......

C!
Arcticfox
(01/13/2004; 07:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115220)
The Broken Cycle: Paradigm Shift
The Broken Cycle: Paradigm Shift

Jim Willie CB

"An image comes to mind. Uncle Sam is struggling under a huge debt burden, even as his subjects struggle under similar huge debt burdens. His legs render him awkwardly able to bear the weight, incapable of walking in a straight line, due to a badly twisted spinal column. Under the influence of extreme doses of pure oxygen and amphetamines, he rises after a painful fall in the year 2000. Since that tumble, he has lost a considerable amount of blood. Now he walks, despite continued loss of blood in what has become a dangerous hemorrhage. His steps are irregular, clumsy, and uneven. Govt statisticians view his gait through an absurdly distorted lens, which wildly amplifies the size, strength, even the direction of his movements. That same lens fortunately provides snapshots which make his movement appear steady. The children he pulls along are Asian workers, not our own. Every step is borrowed from our new Asian masters, who are now either anxious or angry. With crimped income sources, American subjects watch as their jobs are abandoned and sold out to foreign lands. Globalization has backfired on Uncle Sam, and inflicted perhaps mortal wounds. Our manufacturing base was first to forfeit. Now our vital service sector is in the process of abandonment. As he attempts to walk, what used to be simple headwinds in past cycles are now fierce gale-force squall winds in this cycle, which make balance impossible."

Cavan Man
(01/13/2004; 08:02:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115221)
Waverider
RE: Liberalization of China's Gold MarketI think this was done for the reason you mention; i.e., to encourage the private ownership of gold which will in due time be a lesson to those who hold it. The lesson: as the currency of the realm(s) twist in the wind, the golden sextant charts a sure and steady course.

I think the other reason has to do with the increasing wealth effect resulting from the Chinese economic juggernaut. With a high rate of savings, the "money" has to go somewhere. Channeling investment into gold helps in some measure to relieve the pressure on other asset classes and speculative business investment. I imagine speculation in anything that is not tied down over there is rampant. At some point, perceived wealth will be destroyed like the Nasdaq dollars here. At that day of reckoning, it will be a comfort to Chinese citizens and their masters to know that their rainy day fund is secure.
Waverider
(01/13/2004; 08:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115222)
OPEC mulls move to euro for pricing crude oil
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040112.wopec0112/BNStory/Business/"OPEC is considering a move away from using the U.S. dollar � and to the euro � to set its price targets for crude oil, the highest-profile manifestation of the debilitating effect of depreciation on the greenback's standing as the currency of international commerce. Several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seeking formal talks on using the euro, as well as the U.S. dollar, when determining price targets for crude, a senior oil minister within the cartel said Monday. "There are countries that are proposing this," Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in Caracas. "It's out there, under discussion."

Any move to water down the use of the U.S. dollar as the currency would have enormous symbolic impact, said one prominent Canadian energy analyst. "On a symbolic level, I think it's huge, not only for what it says about the U.S. dollar, but also the implied change to the nature of energy trading worldwide in the future," said Wilf Gobert, vice-chairman of Peters & Co. Ltd."
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 09:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 115223)
Euro/Gold/Oil deals
@ dollar bill

your post: "What france and germany tried to do with saddam, get oil for euro trade by dealing with a madman, a very vicious one at that, with sons groomed to take over that were at least as vicious as saddam, a massive problem for the world and promising to get worse as the sons took over...
Now, could Germany be acting smarter by dealing gold for that oil for euro advantage? And dealing with more sane govts?"

From the micro perspective this appears as you suggest, but two steps back, these despots are regularly installed by TPTB to "manage" their colonial resources. World opinion after Iraq I was that he had been contained and there was no further need to worry within that "containment". TPTB weren't worried when he gassed Kurds, as that "aided" Turkey. It was nothing new, as the Brits had gassed the overly independent Kurds two generations earlier. They also weren't worried when the State Dept "quietly" encouraged him to mess with Kuwait, as it presented the excuse to "reduce" his army, but leave him intact.

Europe WAS surprised, however, when Dubya acted unilaterally to take him out, as it meant no more "sharing" of the resources. The smoke screen of "asking" for world support was a political coup, as Dubya wanted Europe to help take Iraq, but the only booty he offered was that they "might" get to keep a few contracts they already had (minus the debt, of course). They played the hand of world opinion and lost - Dubya took the oil anyway and the debt must be forgiven before any new contracts are issued.

Now Europe needs to ensure new oil flows, and Libya is rich. Qhadafi is no more or less "mad" than Saddam Hussein, but he now has Saddam's experience to draw on, and he's not blind. Hussein (in hubris like Noriega) never believed his masters would take him out. Sorry, Charlie.

Watch for oil rich Indonesia (backers of Muslim gold Dinar) to be a future Muslim "hotspot", as will "socialist" Venezuela and civil-war-torn Nigeria. No one really gives much of a hoot about North Korea, as they have nothing to pay retributions (tribute) with.

Again, we follow the money!
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 09:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 115224)
Sir AG on the boob tube
Add the horribly over-reverbed mix to the Grrenspeak and I already have a headache! He really sounds like the Wizard of Oz today .. ay..ay.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(01/13/2004; 10:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115225)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
MK
(01/13/2004; 10:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115226)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlSome new article postings.

Scroll down for the Stein in case you've missed it previously.

Two new "Notable & Quotable."

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and the Daily Gold Market Report.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.

Good luck to all in the price guessing contest.
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 11:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115227)
*>*
Sir Goldilox, Tough to find error in your posts, this one included !
I thought this Bush1 tactic was quite revealing, as you remind us;
"when the State Dept "quietly" encouraged him to mess with Kuwait, as it presented the excuse to "reduce" his army, but leave him intact"
goldquest
(01/13/2004; 11:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 115228)
Greenspan
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040113/default.htmLatest speech at the bundesbank meeting.
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 11:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 115229)
*>*
Auerbach;
"at some point the pervasive Asian central banks� purchases of dollars to hold down their local currencies will have the mechanistic effect of boosting domestic money supplies: "True Asian central banks try to sterilise this domestic *money-supply expansion* with varying degrees of zeal. But this process becomes both more difficult and more costly the bigger the dollar purchases gets. And they are becoming bigger all the time, with Asian central banks� foreign reserves now totalling US$1.8tr."
In contrast to Mr Greenspan's musings, a more accurate characterisation of current reality is that an unsustainable boom in consumer spending fuelled by credit has simply replaced the unsustainable bubble in corporate expenditure of the late 1990s that was driven by corporate debt."
Can anyone elaborate on the -money supply expansion- problem that is/will be faced by our asian loan makers?
And with credit spreads shrinking to pre LTCM levels, almost, the plan must be for corporate spending, debt levels, to go up. Supporting stock valuation, providing lift, however false, to the equity asset bubble that the fed MUST levitate since it is playing the game it is.

Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 11:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 115230)
Libya
@ bill

Qadhaffi's move appears to be survival motivated. Euroland response is oil motivated. US response is don't let UN upstage us, as we don't want another WMD embarrassment. That old dog won't hunt twice, especially in an election year.

Gold day to you, my friend. It looks like some POG/POS correction is here, not too amazingly in triple witching week again.
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 11:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 115231)
Asian currency float
Good question, $bill-

Has anyone seen a table anywhere comparing supply growth in all major currencies? Might it demonstrate a huge currency bubble as in major currency inflafla?

Another cool comparo might be total of all currency circulation vs. physical gold and silver.
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 12:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 115232)
*>*
Sir Goldilox, did you see the cartoon on Duke MK's page?
MK, This was on a link of your page;
"February 28, 2003 - Japan's Finance Ministry confirms it has conducted solo intervention for a second straight month, buying dollars and euros worth about 513 billion yen. It said it had asked the Bank of Japan to step into the market several times in late February and that *euro-buying* had been "far less" than dollar-buying versus the yen."

"Since Japanica, er I mean Ameripan, er I mean Japan, can just print up yens and buy as many euro's and dollars as it wants, and with japan and american CB's linked like siamese twins apparently, cant the japanese control the euro price to a not insignificant degree? With all Ameripan interests at play?"

Gandalf the White
(01/13/2004; 12:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115233)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contes UPDATE !
EVERYTHING that could go wrong with my computer HAS !! <;-)FINALLY an UPDATE !!!

Entries as of Tuesday 1/13/04 at HIGH NOON Denver time !!!

In order of decreasing values !

**** $462.5 **** Caradoc (1/12/04; 00:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115131)

**** $456.5 **** jenika (1/12/04; 07:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115147)

**** $452.0 **** Dollar Bill (1/11/04; 23:27:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115125)

**** $449.0 **** knotakare (1/12/04; 08:05:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115149)

**** $447.5 **** omegaman (1/12/04; 00:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115133)

**** $440.0 **** Zhisheng (1/12/04; 08:06:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 115150)

**** $436.5 **** Operative (1/11/04; 23:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115127)

**** $435.5 **** Waverider (01/12/04; 23:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115212)

**** $435.0 **** Liberty Head (1/11/04; 23:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 115129)

**** $433.0 **** a nation of one (1/12/04; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115175)

**** $432.1 **** Gandalf the White (1/11/04; 22:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 115123)

**** $431.5 **** Goldilox (1/11/04; 23:48:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115128)

**** �333.0 **** Ernst Welteke (01/12/04; 09:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 115156)

**** $429.7 **** slingshot (1/12/04; 08:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115152)

**** $407.5 **** Gonlyold (01/12/04; 18:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115202)

**** $342.1 **** FreeWillie (1/12/04; 03:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115140)
steady
(01/13/2004; 12:15:04 MDT - Msg ID: 115234)
experiments
is allam greenspam just an inveterate experimenter when it comes to real honest monetary policy?
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 12:21:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115235)
Japanica
@ bill

While Japan can (and does) "print" yen at will as you suggest, the more they exercise this option, the less the market reacts. The old question remains, "if a little is good, is a lot better?" They are already witnessing HO HUM reaction to their massive US$ purchases, so if they add Euro purchases to the shopping list, they may finally max their currency credit card in terms of world reaction.

Let's see - Buffet cries "wolf" with BH money - buys PMs, short $, and shuts up. Japan floods the market with poopoo paper about three times a week. Long term, BOJ is likely to plug up the plumbing.

I like WB's strategy better. Got gold?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/13/2004; 12:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 115236)
An Invitation to Prospective Clients....
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

News and Views
Paper Avalanche
(01/13/2004; 12:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 115237)
Gold must close at or below $424.99 this week......
It is the third Saturday of the month again! Time to protect the big players who have options exposure above $425 this go around.

There seems to be a monthly pattern forming of POG hitting some invisible ceiling at a key strike price the week before the options expiry (i.e. $410 last month).

I'll gladly take $15 per month (for now).

I may be wrong. I often am.

PA
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 13:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 115238)
Witching week
@PA-

We must be clairvoyant! I was just tracking miners' history and noticed the same wave patterns. Up to the beginning of the month with a dip into witching territory.

More derivative effect? An options trader told me 90% of option expire OTM, so I'm not surprised. Heavy selling into the witch keeps that number high, as big traders write more than buy.

Oh well, buy the dips and enjoy the ride.

Got gold?
balzac
(01/13/2004; 13:34:06 MDT - Msg ID: 115239)
CONTEST - GERMAN GOLD SALES
*****430.5*****
MY NAME IS E.W. my comment :

The world will soon be controlled by the yellow horde holding the yellow metal. Since we were smashed in WW1 and WW2 and have now more immigrants than we can employ and a faltering economy, what better way to win the Chinese favor for future
benefit than to sell them our gold? Our salvation - an insurance alliance forged in gold.

Balzac
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 13:41:07 MDT - Msg ID: 115240)
Russia's Complex Situation And Putin's Leak To The West
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2004/0113.htmlJoe Duarte's analysis of an article he says :Leaked from the Kremlin". A good overview of the Russian oil business issues and their political overtones.

-G
glennh10
(01/13/2004; 13:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 115241)
OPEC - Pricing of Oil in terms of...
Gold has no national allegiance or identity. Therefore, all currencies are necessarily subordinates to gold - whether nation-states, groups of nation-states, world bank, central banks, imf, wish to acknowledge the fact or not. Coming to this realization might first, quite appropriately occur with OPEC, or other natural resource producers/providers.

Therefore, OPEC should take the plunge and just price its oil in terms of gold, and be done with it. And, let the politicians haggle in the currency pit amongst themselves.

Just an observation.
balzac
(01/13/2004; 13:44:42 MDT - Msg ID: 115242)
OPTIONS EXPIRATION
P.A.- once again I agree with you- Let's see if a guess for the contest might be calculated thus-

3rd sat. price $324.5 plus the weekly increase allowed by Comex
$6. = $330.5 US dollars.

Balzac
balzac
(01/13/2004; 13:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 115243)
GOLD PRICE
P.A.I have been following gold for so long now I am still using last years numbers- that final figure should be $430.5----sorry!!

Balzac
steady
(01/13/2004; 17:43:12 MDT - Msg ID: 115244)
CONTEST - GERMAN GOLD SALES
*****432.5*****
my comment on why we should sell our gold
"im bold.
i dont get told
what to do with gold.
bought or sold
you will do what told.
like mold,
youre in the dark,
bring back the german mark!

Solomon Weaver
(01/13/2004; 17:44:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115245)
***432.2***
Meine Name ist Ernst Welteke, und ich glaube, dass wir unsere Geld verkaufen sollen. Wir werden es aber nicht direct auf dem Markt bringen, sondern nur mit Euro-Freuden Geheimgolddeals schaffen.
Solomon Weaver
(01/13/2004; 18:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 115246)
A very nice picture....if the link works (RE:silver spot prices)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&v=dmaxSince a few of us here are also silver advocates, I thought it might be nice to take a look at what might just be an interesting moment in silver history.

POS (poor old Solomon)
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 18:34:59 MDT - Msg ID: 115247)
China to revalue yuan in first quarter of 2004: Goldman Sachs
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/65896/1/.htmlsnippit:

"Although a 10 percent revaluation would be needed to bring the currency to fair value, it expects China to revalue the yuan by 2.5 percent against the US dollar in a "prudent first move" towards a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Goldman Sachs said that China is then likely to move from a direct US dollar peg to a crawling basket of trade-weighted currencies.

It cited a recent mainland media report which said that the government was considering linking the yuan to a basket of 11 trade-weighted currencies.

It noted, however, that because many of these were either managed against or pegged to the dollar, its composition would be 63 percent in dollars and the remainder split between the euro and yen.

Goldman Sachs said that the move to a managed basket of currencies would lead to a one percent appreciation against the basket in six months and 1.5 percent in 12 months, totaling a five percent rise in value overall.

It said that this implies an exchange rate of 8.07, 7.68 and 7.54 yuan to the dollar in three, six and 12 months respectively. The yuan will be valued at 13.00, 12.38 and 12.60 yen over these periods, it said."

Goldilox:

China is set to compromise with Snow to keep the trade syphon flowing.
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 18:50:21 MDT - Msg ID: 115248)
China's banking system a ticking time bomb
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FA13Ad02.htmlsnippit:

"By Lynette Ong

China's banking system is like a ticking time bomb. Saddled by mountains of bad loans and insufficient capital base, collapse of the state banks will cause an implosion of the Middle Kingdom, predict many doomsayers. Many say time is running out as foreign competitors are slated to pry open the banking sector in 2006, as China pledged to open up the sector as part of its commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

However, whether or not foreigners are allowed to compete is beside the point - as any trade bureaucrat will tell you, there is more than one way to dodge WTO obligations. The key issue: if unreformed, the ailing state banks will indeed drag the Middle Kingdom down.

Two of the four state-owned banks, the Bank of China and the China Construction Bank, have each received US$22.5 billion to plug the massive holes in their capital bases. The $45 billion (373 billion yuan) cash infusion by the government comes from the country's foreign-exchange reserves, which topped $448 billion at the end of 2003, the world's second-largest, thanks to the surge of "hot money" flowing into China from speculators eager to profit from a revaluation of the yuan.

These two banks are widely expected to be floated on the stock market in the next one to two years. The recent move represents a government's attempt to "dress them up", making them appeal to potential investors."

Goldilox:

China is so eager to join the party, they've even westernized (trashed) their banking system. They just need some of them there "drivatives" that Sir AG is so fond of. That'll fix what ails their banks and they'll sell like dot coms!
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 18:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 115249)
A veritable litter of dead cat bounces.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0Reminds me of a skit by the old "Firesign Theater" -

"There's a whole dead cat in every bar of Dead Cat Soap!"

Oops - there goes Kittie off to bed. I just never learn. He's soooo sensitive.
steady
(01/13/2004; 19:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 115250)
musings
I wonder if.... there is a lag time between actual gold purchases on the big scale and replenishment of that sold gold, and how does that lag time affect the price of gold? cause what im seein now is everyones got to get paid, and you see thats whats happening now, as the market turns where are those digits are going( the ones creaed out of repos) is into checks , which filter tehre way thru the system in order to fuel the engine, but the digits now floating around due to the change in the market are out there for people to enjoy to consumerize, so thats where dem digits are going out the pipe and back into consumers hands, wise consumers are finding gold and silver outlets see thats the 15 dollar a month thing so far as it has to be orderly so that every one who has digital dollars has the opportunity to , one get digital dollar out of the digitized world and onto a sheet of paper and then convert to gold, this , as many of you know is a laborious tedious time consuming affar, 3 day settment period and so on and so forth , but at the same time keeping there digital papaer asset wealth about the same level so as not to arrouse surprize , or suspicion amongst the brokerage houses, there colleagues or even the govt itself, that yep the rats are leaving this indebted ship, but they are leaving there paper wipings behind so as not to leave such a stench when the game is over., so as the radio stations fill your head with tranquil mood relaxing music and bombard you with ideas on how to be seperated from yor debt, opps i mean money while the tv offers mindless nonsense the traffic flows along with the digital red and green lights confoundng your sense of timeing since there time controlls you, especially you indebted ones, just rember this lil down turn has been nicely coregraphed to coinside with wealth redistribution via the market outlets hahaahaha both market outlets the consumer outlets who recieve the benifit of the stock market wealth redistribution taking place as the bubble is sloly deflated.
got time to get gold?
better hurry as gold is now driving the rand tooot tooot as one esteemd poster here has told ya ALL ABOARD THE GOLD BULL EXPRESS ..
steady
(01/13/2004; 19:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 115251)
banks
hey psst this bank over here is well way in debt oh ok lets give it reserves from our rather large reseve pile.
recieving bank: oh ok thanks for that cash infusion fix our dikes with> but here this 150 million is to much.
banker: augh you are to knew to this game. the extra is to strengthen your gold and silver reserves, wiiit withh the way its appreciating you can be debt free and we can have alllllll our state bank sheets perfect by 2006, imagine that a bank debt free and still have outstanding loan payments coming in.
recieving banker: for real! ok.
Dollar Bill
(01/13/2004; 20:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 115252)
*>*
Todays link to Greenspan in Germany courtesy of SirGoldquest
"The highly competitive free market paradigm, however, is viewed by many at the other end of the philosophical spectrum, especially among some here in Europe, as obsessively materialistic and largely lacking in meaningful cultural values. Those that still harbor a visceral distaste for highly competitive market capitalism doubtless gained adherents with the recent uncovering of much scandalous business behavior during the boom years of the 1990s.
But is there a simple tradeoff between civil conduct, as defined by those who find raw competitive behavior demeaning, and the quality of material life they, nonetheless, seek? It is not obvious from a longer-term perspective that such a tradeoff exists in any meaningful sense"

Oh? and what about how home depot crushes all the various types of stores in its wake? And walmart and the like.
And how mega farming crushes all the family farms?
The whole US fisherman industry is crushed by the big ship fishing, and miners, who work very hard to produce cheap gold? ect.
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 22:28:35 MDT - Msg ID: 115253)
*****426.10*****

Hi, My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold. As a Socialist I would like to get reelected again and if the Brits and Swiss can fool the people, I can too. I will of course tell them it's for expanding social programs. I risk the same disgrace as the Brit financial genious who sold the British peoples gold at rock bottom prices and as gold is still rising that is a risk I must take. People are gullible so I will come up with some spin. Besides, the gold is mostly gone (loaned out and will never come back but that's one way to "cook the books" and let a lot of favored investors off the hook).

- Black Blade

Thought I had better get my digs in before the contest ends.

Operative
(01/13/2004; 22:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 115254)
Ties Between Spain and US Growing
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/01130000aaa00abe.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20NewsEncourage all to read this link and file information for future events and players.

@ Black Blade: Great to see you out and about this evening and happy you still find the way/time to stay in touch. Good Luck on your project. Best Regards!
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 22:42:11 MDT - Msg ID: 115255)
Physical Gold vs. Paper Investments
Now for the serious side folks
This is an interesting debate. I have thought about this subject for quite some time. I have about 35% of my portfolio in physical Gold and Silver and it would have perhaps been a bit more, however, my paper investments have done quite well. I do know that this is not anywhere close to the norm in today's investment environment In spite of the rising equities indices � those tend to be select shares and of course the DOW is only 30 companies). I should add that the equities indices often drop poor performing equities in place of better performing shares - it's a curious game they play. Gold mining shares tend to front run physical Gold prices on occasion. Since the POG has not kept up with the frenzied pace of the mining shares, it would stand to reason the price of physical Gold should move much higher. In other words, this Gold Bull has a long way to run. That is the either physical has to catch up while mining shares retreat some.

I view my physical Gold as a hard physical "insurance" asset that I will carry through thick and thin. It is after all the ultimate insurance that has no claim on it by outside forces. I think back to those people through history who had to bribe the border guards to seek a new life of freedom outside nazi/communist domination (essentially the same thin), those who brought their way out of a one way ticket to Auschwitz, Triblinka, Buchenwald, some Gulag in Siberia, or even to escape the Khmer Rouge in Kampuchea (Cambodia), those who watched their life savings vaporize in the Weimar Republic, to escape Vietnam in 1975, those who had Gold during the LatAm (Brazil, Mexico, etc.) currency blowup, those who survived the Asian Contagion with their savings intact one case where an entrepreneur bought the rights to a Mercedes dealership in Indonesia and others stores, then there are those who are now suffering in Argentina, and those suffering in Japan (however, I should think that some of those with precious metals should come out fairly unscathed). Gold (yes Rich I will concede silver as well as platinum) is the ultimate "portfolio insurance", it is anonymous and it can be passed along without outside consideration.

Paper assets are for the here and now. Stock is simply nothing more than a "deed" of partial ownership of some company if you will. You and many others have a right to a piece of a company with each share of stock. Stock is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. Stock investing is a speculative game and should not be played with cash that is needed for survival. In short it is a bet on the future direction of a company and the underlying asset. Of course bonds are dependent on the quality of debt by the issuer. Some even tout US government bonds as a safe haven investment (yet that is ever more questionable). However, not long ago Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated before the Senate Banking Committee that Gold was the "ultimate currency". He did not mention stocks or bonds � he specifically mentioned "Gold". Even Congress was asked to allow the sale of US and IMF gold � wisely they refused and added that it would take an act of Congress to do so � (the vote was not even close including Democrats and Republicans).

There are also other hard assets such as gemstones and real estate. If you are not an expert in gemstones � stay away! If you are not an expert in the four C's (Cut, Clarity, Color, and Carat) - stay away from diamonds. These are fields best suited for experts in that field and I have seen many people taken for a lot of money for substandard gemstones (even colored semi-precious stones that I have even dabbled in, but that is another story and due to connections related to my previous work in certain countries and relationships developed over many years with "experts). It is also very easy for the uninitiated to be taken to the cleaners. It is true that one could hold several million dollars worth of diamonds in the palm of their hand, but again this is not for the majority of people. I have been fortunate enough to know some people in the gem business and was able to obtain a nice selection of rubies, sapphires, zircon, emeralds, opals, etc. However, these are more of a curiosity as specimen samples and not as easily utilized as something identifiable and tradable as liquid Physical Precious Metals during times of crisis! (and I do mean "times of crisis"! � this is "insurance"!).

Real estate is a very good asset to have as well (as long as it's paid for and either for the family homestead or a return on investment such as current income). Though I do not have ownership of a physical residence (due to the nature of my work), one could do well to have real estate fully paid for (and the ability to keep it having the funds for taxes and insurance). OK, I do have some land in the high country. The one real big downside of real estate is that you cannot transport real estate as easy as Gold. If one were to need to relocate in a hurry, it is easy to grab a stash of Precious Metals and move on. Gold is also easily hidden and is generally undetectable. There usually is no paper trail. I would always suggest outright ownership. Even without a mortgage and with deed in hand, one is still just renting land/property from the local government. I consider property taxes a form of rent (just stop paying those property taxes and see how long you really "own it"). No taxes need be paid on Gold ownership.

I was fortunate enough to make several Gold purchases from miners in Nevada over the last few years willing to part with their precious metals as I sold my services to the Gold mines and I would let it be known that I would purchase all PM awards for attendance and safety � now I am glad I did as I bought bullion well below $300 an ounce for gold and $4.50 an ounce for silver. Many of the Gold mining companies typically give out Gold and Silver medallions as safety and attendance awards. Fortunately some miners would sell me their Gold and Silver awards for beer money (I would venture a guess probably before the wives found out). I have many one ounce medallions, half ounce medallions, and various sizes of JM wafers from Barrick, Placer Dome, Echo Bay, Minorco, Sterling Mine, etc. Since then I have made purchases of Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion (yes even bullion and foreign coin from USAGOLD).

I watch world events unfold with threats of war in Central Asia, violence in the Middle East, the possibility of much more terrorist activity worldwide, a horrific weakening of the US Dollar �in fact all currencies in a "Currency War of epic proportions as nations struggle for a ever smaller consumer base willing to spend, the deepening Global Recession, corporate scandals galore along with "perp walks" before armies of media camera men/women, phoney baloney Arthur Andersen style accounting, complete loss of confidence in Wall Street, Argentine and Japanese banking crises, one looming energy crisis after another, government squabbling and corruption at all levels, a widening Mutual Fund scandal including some of the biggest names in the business (and it appears to be pervasive), etc. If any one of these threats come into full view and is hounded and pounded by the financial media day in and day out, I know I feel a easier knowing that I have physical Gold on hand. In short - I have my investment portfolio very well "insured".

The first thing to do of course is to plan a "Wealth Pyramid" starting with a firm foundation and that is with hard assets first such as precious metals, then stable current income investments, and later more speculative issues. I see gold, silver, platinum, and even palladium going higher as the US dollar weakens (as it must given the unsustainable budget and current account deficits � in short we have "gone past the point of no return"). We either must raise taxes (and raise them beyond the ability of people to pay, or inflate the US dollar like there's no tomorrow). You have been forewarned and yet others scoff at us "Gold Bugs" (though my lowly 30-35% position probably does not qualify me as a "true" gold bug to some, but I see it as a purely prudent move in the current environment. Hey, who knows, I just may have to bribe a border guard or two sometime in the future the way things are going here in the "good ole USA". ;-)

- Black Blade

I would be amiss if I did not publicly thank Mike Kosares and Randy Strauss of Centennial Precious Metals (here we know them as USAGOLD) for allowing me the honor and privilage of doing the Daily Market Reports until recently. I was offered an opportunity to ply my trade (as a consulting geologist) for a major independent company so I had to pass up doing the DMR for now. They were very up front with me and are very honest people to work with and to do bussiness with and they certainly have my respect and future business. Once again, Thanks guys and I hope you all understand my departure. The future for precious metals looks very bright especially with the falling US dollar.
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 22:44:02 MDT - Msg ID: 115256)
GS Speach
@ Dollar Bill

I think Sir AG did much today to reinforce the European stereotype of "The Ugly American". Arrogance is not soon forgotten.
Operative
(01/13/2004; 22:50:39 MDT - Msg ID: 115257)
Gold For Oil and Natural Gas ??
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/business/05_01_04_c.aspA very interesting read on what may be ahead in the energy biz. Find it of interest also that Shell announced recently that oil reserves are below expectations. Maybe they are gearing up to push LNG.
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 22:53:29 MDT - Msg ID: 115258)
What's in Store for the Dollar?
An old article on the need of a "weak US dollar" worth a readWhat's in Store for the Dollar?

By John H. Makin

In a growing global economy, everyone likes a strong currency. It implies that a country runs at the head of the growth pack, and it helps keep inflation at bay. During the 1990s, the United States was such a country.

In a shrinking global economy, everyone wants a weak currency, though no one says so. Each country needs a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, and a weaker currency helps to boost lagging demand at home. Awkwardly for other countries, it makes foreign goods more expensive and, thus, domestic goods more attractive. With excess capacity and a weaker currency, inflation is not really an issue. Most of the countries involved in the Asian debt crisis found themselves in these circumstances by mid-1997 and subsequently devalued. Japan, in fact, is still an economy with considerable excess capacity and is counting on help from a weaker yen and a U.S. recovery to boost exports.

A Weaker Dollar?

A new factor has emerged in the global currency markets this spring. A confluence of market events is suggesting that the U.S. economy may need a weaker dollar to drive a sustainable recovery. Since early this year, and mostly during April and May, the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 5 percent in value, while the stock market has weakened and interest rates have gone down by 30 to 40 basis points. Meanwhile, a jump in the April unemployment rate to 6 percent, the highest level since 1994, underscored corporate and market expectations of a weakening economy and weakening profits.

It will be very interesting to observe the response in the global economy should the recent drop in the dollar accelerate. American manufacturers and labor unions are screaming for a weaker dollar while the U.S. Treasury speaks uneasily about a strong dollar being in the nation's best interests. It may be in America's best interests when the world economy is strong, but it may not be in the best interests of the United States when domestic demand growth is insufficient to propel a sustainable recovery that includes a rise in capital formation.

In this period of queasiness about the dollar, a Plaza-style dollar depreciation proposed to Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) entails a lot of wishful thinking. The Plaza Accord of September 8, 1985, aimed at pushing down the dollar and came at a time when the Japanese economy was strong and Germany was essentially run by the hard currency Bundesbank. But now with the dollar down from 135 to 127 yen, Japanese policymakers are already murmuring nervously, and a little foolishly, about the absence of a "need" for a stronger yen. Indeed, in deflationary Japan, a stronger yen would be an unmitigated disaster, and most Japanese policymakers know it. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank has protested the run out of dollars into its safe-haven currency by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points on May 2 after markets, unnerved by Secretary O'Neill's squabble with the members of Congress over the strong dollar policy, pushed the dollar to its lowest levels since just before the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Take a look at the fundamentals. The U.S. current account deficit means that about 1.3 billion dollars are on offer in the foreign exchange markets every day. As the desire of international investors to acquire more assets in the United States begins to cool, the capital inflows that snap up those available dollars has started to slip and so has the dollar.

The important point is that if the United States needs a weaker dollar to sustain its recovery, most of the rest of the world's countries need lower interest rates to sustain theirs. This requirement leaves Japan out in the cold, unless the Bank of Japan finally gets busy and starts pumping out liquidity at three or four times the current rate, as was required to end Japan's deflation in the 1930s. There is plenty of room for further interest rate cuts in Europe and Canada. In the latter, a macho central bank recently pushed up rates by 25 basis points as part of a premature show of confidence in Canada's economic recovery, which is tied closely to U.S. prospects. To quell a strengthening currency, America's other major hemispheric trading partner, Mexico, in April reversed a 60-basis-point rate increase that had been enacted in January.

A Dilemma for the Fed

A weaker dollar could present the Federal Reserve with a conflict between the needs of the domestic economy for continued monetary accommodation and the need for tighter money to achieve external balance and slow the dollar's decline. After all, with an eye on the domestic economy, the Fed has cut interest rates by 475 basis points since January 2001, only to see the U.S. stock market subsequently drop last year for a second year in a row and to watch stocks weaken again this year as concerns about sustainable growth and profits keep stock prices under pressure.

The other part of the Fed's dilemma is tied to the extraordinarily low current level of short-term interest rates. Such low short-term interest rates have encouraged households to continue to purchase consumer durables, housing, and related items at a vigorous pace, especially viewed in the context of the weak employment picture. Meanwhile, corporations have increased issuance of long-term debt but have converted their borrowing into short-term debt because of the extraordinarily low rates on offer, thanks to the Fed's very accommodative stance on the Federal funds rate.

The heavy dependence of households and corporations on low short-term interest rates puts the Fed in a delicate position. On the one hand, it may make sense to wait until it sees signs of a sustainable recovery to tighten, because once it tightens, the effective costs of borrowing for households and corporations will jump sharply and the strong housing and consumer durables sectors will weaken quickly, while the corporate profit picture will deteriorate as corporate borrowing costs jump. On the other hand, the Fed's ability to slow the economy, given the current heavy dependence on short-term borrowing, is almost too great-making the Fed reluctant to raise short-term interest rates.

So far, no warning lights have flashed to suggest that the Fed has been too easy for too long, thereby risking higher inflation. The combination of a weaker dollar, lower interest rates, and lower stock prices unambiguously suggests an expectation of slower growth. If the weaker dollar were signaling an expectation of higher inflation, it would be accompanied by higher interest rates and would then provide an unmistakable sign of a serious conflict pitting the Fed's desire to accommodate the domestic economy against the need to maintain external balance to avoid a sharp, inflationary drop in the dollar.

Markets Jittery

In the face of renewed uncertainty about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery and implications for the dollar, interest rates, and stock prices, markets have turned more volatile this spring. The Fed cannot be happy to see that its accommodative monetary policy stance is largely boosting spending on housing, automobiles, and related items instead of causing investment spending to resume. The Fed is getting some of its wished-for "demand growth," but it is coming from retail sales and housing, not from the more respectable kind of demand growth, investment spending, which also boosts capacity and so is not inflationary. But the faster growth of consumption spending, in contrast to a jump in investment, is not unambiguously good for the dollar, especially if any hints of inflation should appear.

The most benign case would be that the weaker dollar is indicating that more stimulus is needed to sustain demand growth at a level sufficient to induce the capital spending and additions to capacity that have been identified as necessary conditions for a sustainable U.S. recovery. The weaker dollar, by exporting some deflationary pressure from the United States, then would serve as a forcing mechanism that creates pressure for lower interest rates in countries that have become overreliant on the U.S. demand growth locomotive.

Rx: Lower Tax Rates Instead of Higher Spending

Even if the dollar does weaken for a time, the Treasury and Congress can take steps to create higher growth and a firmer dollar. Lower tax rates would enhance both demand and supply growth in the U.S. economy, while pushing up expected real rates of return on investment and thereby helping to strengthen the dollar. Another $100 billion in tax cuts that could push next year's deficit to $150 billion instead of $50 billion would be far better than another $100 billion in wasteful spending on agricultural subsidies. Additional deficits created in the short-run by lower tax rates that promise higher growth are not a problem for global capital markets to absorb, since subsequent higher growth would erase future deficits.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration would do well to abandon the idea of a "strong dollar policy." The exchange rate is a price determined in global currency markets. Having a dollar policy that includes strong-dollar rhetoric suggests a willingness to intervene in currency markets should the dollar become "weak." That is not the stated policy of the Bush administration, so probably the less said about the "dollar policy" the better.


Black Blade: Since I caught up on some work for now I though this old article would be worth reading and to compare how things have since changed. Now the dollar has weakened and will weaken further in spite of "unlimited" Japanese currency market manipulation. As some have pointed out - options expiry is coming soon and the markets will be a bit jittery over the next few days. Still, I see better days ahead for the precious metals. I also noticed that while Alan Greenspan was speaking in Berlin the DOW dropped over 100 points! Coincidence maybe, confusion, or just disbelief. Who knows, but it was interesting to note. The timing was curious to say at least.

steady
(01/13/2004; 22:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 115259)
spain/us
a large higway project is out for bid in the state of texas. 1 of the bidders is a co. from spain. they will get a contract ,look at the spanish politicians who have visited the lone silver star state!
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 23:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 115260)
Operative
Thanks. I will try to keep up with the discussion here at the forum. Though I get up much earlier these days and have a lot of work to do I will find time to read the forum discussions.

I notice a lot of talk in the energy side on LNG but that is years away. It takes a lot of time and a large fleet of specialized nickel lined tankers under pressure. So far Japan is the major consumer and in the US there is a huge NIMBY syndrome to anything energy related. So far we have only four LNG terminals that supply about 1% of NatGas. Another is planned and is facing a lot of public opposition. By the time LNG is a significant supplier it could be as long as 20 years and by then the demand will surpass the aditional LNG supply. And yet we will be dependent on supply from countries that may not be so "friendly" to the US. Fortunately it will be a worldwide economy and and "embargo" will be useless. However, in spite of a couple of decades of plentiful domestic supply on public lands and under Federal control (that includes the Alaskan north slope supply and planned pipeline), NatGas is mostly "off limits" and moratoriums on drilling and pipeline siting is still a barrier. That alone means that we have for all practical purposes have hit "Hubbert's Peak" in NatGas.

Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 23:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 115261)
'Strong dollar' policy loses its grip
Another Old US Dollar Article'Strong dollar' policy loses its grip
By Patrice Hill
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

John W. Snow, President Bush's pick to head the Treasury Department, faces an immediate challenge of how to handle a rapidly tumbling dollar.

For reasons ranging from fear about war with Iraq to low interest rates, a weakening economy and huge trade and budget deficits, the greenback since November has fallen quickly to three-year lows against the euro and is down by 17.5 percent against six other major currencies in the last year.

That raises the cost of imported goods from cars to French wine and makes it more expensive for Americans to travel overseas. The biggest concern for the Treasury is that a falling dollar also makes it more difficult for the country to finance its burgeoning debts, which require $1.4 billion in daily inflows from overseas.

The White House says it has not changed its "strong dollar" policy, but the currency's decline accelerated noticeably last month after the departure of former Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill, who after a rough start two years ago became a strong defender of the dollar.

Mr. Snow, who as chief executive of CSX Corp. comes to Washington from industry rather than Wall Street, like Mr. O'Neill starts out handicapped in assuming the Treasury secretary's unique role as chief spokesman for the dollar. As CEO of the transportation company, he advocated a weaker dollar to help U.S. manufacturers deal with overseas competition.

Mr. O'Neill, a former chief executive of Alcoa Inc., never won any accolades from Wall Street, but he gained credibility as a dollar defender by steadfastly spurning pleas for a weaker currency from U.S. exporters in industries battered by the recession.

Mr. Snow is expected to adhere to the administration's earlier "strong dollar" policy, though he has refrained from commenting on the dollar or other economic matters ahead of his confirmation hearing tomorrow before the Senate Finance Committee.

All signs are that traders in the vast dollar market � who are known to push a currency to the extreme once it has reversed course � will put Mr. Snow to the test quickly. More than $1 trillion exchanges hands in trading each day.

"The U.S. dollar is in a full-fledged bear market, and the downtrend is still in the third inning out of nine," Merrill Lynch told clients last week. The Wall Street firm attributes the dollar's troubles mostly to the trade deficit, which in the last year bloated to $453 billion, or nearly 5 percent of the gross domestic product.

"The huge U.S. current account deficit is perhaps an old and tired story," Merrill Lynch said, "but breaking above 5 percent relative to GDP is a big deal � the threshold that in the past got emerging markets into trouble."

To reduce the trade deficit to a more normal 2 percent of GDP, Merrill Lynch estimates that the dollar would have to decline another 20 percent. Ironically, it notes that the deficit has widened partly because the United States has been growing faster and absorbing more imports than major trading partners such as Japan and Europe.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker have been warning for years that the relentless growth of the trade deficit is unsustainable and someday will exact a price, causing the fall of the dollar.

Mr. Volcker has told the National Press Club that his biggest worry about the U.S. economy is that a precipitous drop in the dollar will touch off a full-fledged financial crisis, although he added that such a dire scenario can be avoided if the decline is gradual.

The United States was able to sustain large trade deficits when its economy and financial markets were booming during the 1990s, acting like natural magnets that lured foreign investors to put their dollars back into the United States. But after three years of big stock losses and economic weakness, investors have been casting about for more profitable alternatives.

Money has been flowing into everything from gold and bonds to Swiss francs, real estate and even the Norwegian krona and Canadian dollar � currencies that have gained status as safe havens if the United States goes to war with Iraq. That is a reversal for the dollar, which for years has been the world's principal safe-haven currency.

Nick Parsons, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank, said the "daily ebb and flow" of jousting between the White House and Iraq has played a bigger role than economic factors recently in driving down the dollar.

"If we could construct an index of bellicosity, it would show a near-perfect correlation with the dollar," he said.

European leaders, who struggled to support the euro as it sank steadily against the dollar after its introduction in 1999, have been pleased about the reversal of fortunes. The euro is up by 26 percent against the dollar in the past year.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin issued a statement last week gloating over the euro's gains.

"It's not the euro that's strong, it's the dollar that's less attractive," said French Finance Minister Francis Mer, who is hosting a meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris next month.

Investors who saw the United States as the best-performing economy during the 1990s now, after two years of recession and faltering recovery, "question if the U.S. method is still the best to create growth," he said.

Economists point out that the moderate decline of the dollar in the past year has had some beneficial effects. An important one was giving the European Central Bank leeway to stop defending the euro and cut interest rates to stimulate growth in the euro zone.

A softer dollar also helps hard-hit U.S. manufacturers, farmers and other exporters sell more goods overseas. The growth in exports, in turn, fuels growth in the economy and eventually helps to reduce the trade deficit.

A weaker dollar also improves the earnings of U.S. corporations that have offices overseas.

In the short term, however, a lower dollar raises the cost of imports and causes the trade deficit to bulge further, while raising prices and threatening to reignite inflation.

"The deficit is clearly draining tons of cash from the economy" and is a major culprit in the dollar's decline, said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "As long as uncertainty over the U.S. economy and geopolitical risks continue, it will be difficult for the dollar to rally with this kind of deficit."

But Mr. Naroff predicted that the economy will reaccelerate once worries about the war are put to rest, and "the dollar will follow suit." He said the promise of returns on investments in the United States remains higher than it is in Europe or other regions.

Nariman Behravesh, economist with Global Insight, agreed that stronger growth in the United States in the end will support the dollar.

"The odds of a dollar crash are low," he said. Even if its decline accelerates into a free-fall, "the Fed and other central banks would likely intervene to prevent disruptive events."


Black Blade: Yes, another old article that is no longer in the archives (of the Washington Post) anyway. A weaker US dollar helps US manufacturers and brings prices of US goods on par with foreign goods. The "Stong Dollar Policy" is a joke at this stage. Yes, Bush and Snow continue to talk of the "policy" as if they really believe it. But let's face it people - the "strong dollar policy" actually hurt us by delaying the inevitable. Merill Lynch had it right when they said to clients: "The U.S. dollar is in a full-fledged bear market, and the downtrend is still in the third inning out of nine." Also: "The huge U.S. current account deficit is perhaps an old and tired story," Merrill Lynch said, "but breaking above 5 percent relative to GDP is a big deal � the threshold that in the past got emerging markets into trouble." Mark my words, the story has been largely ignored by the financial media but will become a major story in coming months. So far we see some countries intervening in the currency markets and pegging to the US dollar at low rates to help their domestic manufacturers. And I haven't even got to the "manipulated" unemployment data (but I may attack that issue at another time). These predictions on the US dollar have and are coming to fruition. Get yourselves "portfolio insurance" (by now you know what I mean).

Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 23:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 115262)
Factories suffer 41 months of layoffs
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2004-01-12-employment_x.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON � Manufacturers still aren't producing the one item the economy needs most: jobs. Despite recent sharp jumps in orders and shipments, factories shed 26,000 workers in December, the Labor Department said Friday. The December figures mark the 41st consecutive month of layoffs, and bring overall manufacturing job losses to 2.8 million since mid-2000. The pace of layoffs has slowed since summer, but more than 500,000 factory jobs evaporated in 2003 alone. The figures are a disappointment for workers and many analysts, who had predicted the beleaguered manufacturing sector was turning the corner.

Black Blade: This is bad news of course but even service sector jobs are going away (especially in the high tech area). There is no end in sight and it is largely due to export of jobs to offshore labor markets and the still "strong" dollar in comparison to foreign currencies. Also the higher costs of energy where oil, NatGas, and distillates are feed stock for petrochemicals and the added costs of manufacturing are yet another reason and those costs are likely to stay high. Oil hit above $35/bbl today during the trading session. Since you can't store these items very easily then I might suggest precious metals.

specie-man
(01/13/2004; 23:36:08 MDT - Msg ID: 115263)
@ Black Blade
I totally agree on the precious stones advice. They are pretty to look at, but not good as a long term investment because they are too easy (and getting easier) to manufacture in a lab. And that goes for diamonds now too.

Manufacturing gem stones is a matter of combining elements into certain molecular forms - like turning graphite (pure carbon) into diamond (pure carbon !).

Gold can not be manufactured in any useful quantities because it is a chemical element unto it's self (like carbon), and any manufacture of even tiny amounts would require extremely expensive (and "messy") nuclear reactions.

Of course, as a geologist you know all that :)

PS: My Dad is a (now retired) geologist. He worked for the USGS for 30+ years, in places like the Nevada Test Site and Amchitka Island in the Aleutian Islands (Alaska). You can probably infer what he was up to from those two locales.

mudr
(01/13/2004; 23:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 115264)
*****$433.25 *****
"Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because we have hired the Americans to dig more and more for us - and to melt down all their necklaces and rings because they are broke. We'll sell it all - we'll make more.
Mudr
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 23:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 115265)
Americans labor under crushing load of debt
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2346494
Bankruptcies hit record level; savings rate continues to drop

Snippit:

NEW YORK � As the bills from holiday spending sprees arrive, Americans are finding that the mountain of debt they've built has gotten even higher. Consumer debt has more than doubled in the past 10 years to record levels, making it hard for many families to cope. Consumer debt hit a record $1.98 trillion in October 2003, according to the most recent figures from the Federal Reserve. That debt � which includes credit cards and car loans, but not mortgages � translates to some $18,700 per U.S. household. At the same time, the government says the nation's savings rate dropped to just 2 percent of after-tax income in the first half of the year. That means many people lack the means to deal with financial emergencies, much less their eventual retirement. Experts worry about the impact not only on individual families but also on society. "The Depression generation is passing on, and we're losing their values," said Howard Dvorkin, president of the nonprofit Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. "Now we've got an entire generation that doesn't know anything about thrift and careful spending. It's tearing the fabric that made this country great."

Black Blade: We are no longer an agrarian society and a new Great Depression now would be devastating. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, accumulate enough cash for several months� emergency expenses (heck even precious metals can be included at this point), accumulate gold and silver for "portfolio insurance", and start a program of nonperishable food items and basic necessities. Anything can happen such as lay offs, family illness, natural disasters, etc.

Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 23:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 115266)
AZ - State's bankruptcies up 7.4%
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0113bankruptcy13.htmlsnippit:

"Yvette Armendariz
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 13, 2004 12:00 AM


Bankruptcy filings hit a record last year in Arizona, jumping 7.4 percent from 2002's then-record total.

The filings are a lagging indicator of the economic malaise that plagued many businesses in the past few years.

Many companies cut jobs, forcing households, which had garnered a record amount of debt, to deal with lost income, lawyers said. Replacement jobs, if any, paid less. Debts quickly mounted, and bankruptcies soared.

In the six-county Phoenix district, bankruptcy filings grew 8.4 percent to 22,929. Statewide, filings reached 31,296.

Much of the growth stemmed from Chapter 7 cases, which allow consumers to discharge most of their debts. Those filings climbed 9.8 percent in the Phoenix district and 8.4 percent statewide.

Chapter 13 filings, used to reorganize consumer debt, grew 3.3 percent in the Phoenix district and 3.7 percent statewide."

Goldilox:

Greenspam fiddles while Rome burns!

Here in SD county, where new home average prices just topped $600K for the first time, one of my friends with small construction businesses just closed his doors because the CA state workman's comp fees have risen to 50% of the tradesmen's salaries. This at a time when nearly 3000 homes are ripe for rebuilding from the devastating fires of autumn. Insurance compnies are holding the line on construction allowances, so the contractors get squeezed for margin.
Gandalf the White
(01/13/2004; 23:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 115267)
Attn: Sir Mudr
mudr (1/13/04; 23:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115264)
*****$433.25 *****
===
The Hobbits thank you, Sir Mudr, for the extra nickel !
Your entry will be listed at $433.2 !!
<;-)
Goldilox
(01/13/2004; 23:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 115268)
Offshoring backlash rising
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/09/pf/q_antioffshore/index.htmsnippit:

"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) � In December, the State of Indiana cancelled a $15 million contract to upgrade its computer system. Why? Because workers from India would have been working on the government job.

The Hoosiers garnered national headlines. But Indiana isn't the only state that's backtracking from contracts that involve hiring foreign workers, a process called "off-shoring."

Politicians in at least eight states this year are slated to vote on bills that aim at banning foreign workers from public contracts. They include Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina and Washington.

Meanwhile, there are eight bills pending in Congress that in some way restrict the use of foreign workers in the United States or limit non-citizens from participating in government contracts."

Goldilox:

"All offshore who's going offshore!" GS calls this bad "protectionism".
Black Blade
(01/13/2004; 23:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 115269)
specie-man - Precious Stones

You are right about precious stones. The technology is so good only a gemologist with the appropriate equipment can tell the difference and it's getting more difficult. In fact the best "synthetic" diamonds are sold at about half the cost of mined diamonds. They will obviously get cheaper. Even "flame fusion" and "hydrothermic" colored stones are nearly impossible to tell the difference all t