USAGOLD Discussion - June 2004

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Great Albino Bat
(06/01/2004; 00:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121666)
A practically impossible hope....

Attacks on the USA installations and oil supply should be understood as reprisals against those who run the present US government, and not against the people of the US, who have to do what the government orders them to do.

It is hard for most people to make a distinction between an act of war against their rulers as something different from an attack against themselves personally.

The policies of the present administration have been a total disaster for the USA, which finds itself in almost complete isolation from the sympathy and credibility of the rest of the world. All possibility of world leadership has been forfeited by Bush Jr. and his neocon masters. Most Americans do not seem to understand that that is the way the rest of the world regards them today: the USA is THE rogue nation.

Other powers are prudently going along with the USA so as not to aggravate matters, but the situation is one of isolation of the USA into itself in a kind of "ghetto policy" taken from the neocons, themselves Jewish, who are doing the same for Israel - building a ghetto wall around the country. This idea of retreating into a ghetto for the Chosen People, comes from those who exercise power today in the USA, that is their mindset.

When the financial breakdown brings crashing down all hopes of mastery through military might - military might takes money, the REAL STUFF, not paper you know, to keep it going - then the desperate men who are shamefully using the USA to bring about their own ends, will likely go crazy and stop at nothing, not even nuclear war. They have even said so.

The problem is not in objects from outer space, it is from our own human conflicts and the unlimited lust for power.

Save some real money, stock up on necessaries, get out of debt, and don't forget to PRAY A LOT. We are all going to need God's help in the coming debacle.

Sorry for this gloomy tone, but the GAB has a service to do, and it cannot be done without speaking the FULL TRUTH, as the GAB sees it.

The GAB
Belgian
(06/01/2004; 00:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121667)
About the Goldtrail.....
The goldprice in *Swiss Franc* is as flat as the horizon, for more than a full decade, now ! Those who think that this LT-price-behavior is close to normality,...please stop reading any further.

This 10 yrs POG-chart in Swiss Franc is "technically" a very nice one and can be "interpreted" as promessing for the nearby future POG. But this chart,...the price-behavior of Gold in a "special" currency, is telling us, should tell us, much more about Gold's fundamentals, rather than Gold's probable (technical) price projections.

The SwFr-goldchart illustrates how physical Gold has been perfectly "mobilized" for only one "major" purpose : KEEP THE * INTERNATIONAL DOLLAR * IN USE !

FOA 08/06/01 msg #91 !!! READ IT AGAIN.

Ask yourself "WHY" the International US$ is "unwinding" so very, very * orderly *...ORDERLY, given the total batch of circumstances, we are highlighting here, daily !? This orderly unwinding-process IS a Gold-Exchange affair ! At present we do approach the end of "dollar-defense" and evolve towards the "transition" away from the dollar's International function and use.

The many different factions, in or outside the core dollar-block, with or without dollar-debt, are playing their particular role, within this Gold-mobilization-sheme. This is about many different Gold-commitments, reshuffling and exchanges. Totally in-visible and absolutely (purposely) confusing !

A decade long flat goldprice, most clearly evidenced in Swiss Franc POG, is NOT a sign that the dollar (anti thesis of Gold) has been (is being) defended for a minor cyclic event of temporary weakness on the International front !
Hate to repeat my opinion, again...this is less an economic/monetary affair as it is a (geopolitical) "political" affair.

All those different CBs that have been-are-will, announce goldsales, are political entities in the first place. Nobody is looking for the real big picture that lies underneath the gold-reserve sales (commitments) by the very "different" factions in this global Gold exchange. It all revolves (spins) around the "International" dollar (dollar-system). The flat-horizontal SF-POG picture, evidences that the goldprice behavior is NOT an exclusively (superficial) dollar-exchange-rate affair. No, it goes much further (deeper) than that ! Remember the new "designation" of US-goldreserves !!!

Sirsssssmeagol...what do you wish the Trailguides tell us more ? What they have been outlining...IS ...happening, isn't it !? Regular new sounds of Gold-mobilization...dollar exchange rate, orderly declining...dollar-confetti creation...and last but not least, continued firm goldprice containment as to let the transition evolve smoothly, orderly. Many have first to get used to the idea that the dollar is in the process of losing its reserve status. Not a small business, after all those years.

The Goldtrail has been linking oil over dollar (euro) to Gold ...and...aren't we seeing, today, what A/FOA has been suggesting some years ago, Sir Smeagol ? Or is it that things go a bit too orderly (slow) for us impatient goldphiles...smilyyy.

CBs and their accolytes are not rigging the dollar-goldmarket...they are all involved in the dollar-transition process...and each faction of those CBs in its particular way with appropiate Gold-commitments, swaps, exchanges, sales, etc...
The flat-horizontal, 10 yrs SwF-POG chart (price-behavior),
evidences the "constancy" in the ongoing process.
Watch the coming day that the ensemble of all political motives stop supporting the International dollar denominated gold-derivatives with "physical" delivery...or refrain from using Gold as a trade settlement,...REFRAIN FROM USING GOLD AS A TRADE SETTLEMENT ! In other words, gold-mobilization (exchange) stops and the dollar use/function is abandoned. Then, and only then, can a technical signal (inverse SHS) on the goldprice chart be validated as significant through the underlying fundamental.

POG charts in �/Sterling/rand/SwF/Yen can be found at Clive Roffey's essay "Gold Action"(GE). Note in wich currencies the POG is "stable" or "volatile".
Belgian
(06/01/2004; 00:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121668)
GAB...don't lose hope....
Sooner, rather than later, problems will become "Internationalized" and positive solutions will emerge. "Crisis", means catharsis or turning point. Will not be different this time. But unfortunately, I think we are not yet into the heights of the crisis.

The beautifull idea of FreeGold can only emerge and be implemented when we all (the power competitors) see the mutual benefit of it !!! It doesn't matter "how" the insight and acceptance, in concert, is (will be) reached.
Don't write America (Americans) off. The catharsis will have a price. Most probably, the loss of dollar reserve status. That's NOT a disaster, Sir ! More so, if it results in FREEGOLD !
Aristotle
(06/01/2004; 01:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 121669)
FreeGold "...only when we all see the mutual benefit of it!!!"
Exactly!!! Whenever meaningful, lasting change occurs on a scale this large, across many diverse political horizons and borders, it usually comes only when the continuation of wrong-footedness has lost any merit it may once have had and is stumbling headlong into a potentially neck-breaking fall. As a whole, we are able to free ourselves from the crippling inertia of network externalities for one blessed instant as *everyone* explores simultaneously the new, instinctive maneuvers based on a priority shift into self-preservation. Most happily for us is that in the long course of human history, in which we've always managed to emerge from these stumbling lessons still standing, the trend is that we tend to land ourselves naturally with right-footedness and on a course correction for the future.


"Don't write America (Americans) off. The catharsis will have a price. Most probably, the loss of dollar reserve status. That's NOT a disaster, Sir ! More so, if it results in FREEGOLD !"


Very very nicely said, Belgian.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
The CoinGuy
(06/01/2004; 02:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121670)
Riverside Conversations II
http://www.vpro.nl/info/tegenlicht/index.shtml?7738514+7738518+7738520+17628147Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Antony Burgmans join together in an hour long discussion on the future of Europe and the euro. A couple of side points on the US and Asia were made, but for the most part these three stayed on topic. I would have preferred a little more global dancing, but it looked as though my card wasn't punched this time.

Jimmy tells us, Mark my words, in 20 years there won't be a dollar.

I'll disagree in theory, but will state I don't think even today the dollar is worth holding, perhaps long enough to convert it to something tangible. As a savings vehicle, this, I believe is a long gone affair.


The CoinGuy
Topaz
(06/01/2004; 04:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121671)
Bonds Dollar and Money supply.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=CL1%21&s=GC1%21&s=TYXY&s=DX1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThe "take" on exponential Money supply growth this last month seems to indicate the Fed is/has taken a pro-active stance in anticipation of some forthcoming "horror show"... it could be equally argued that this action is more a reactive measure in the face of an ongoing Bond meltdown and will be viewed in coming weeks as just the tip of the Iceberg.
DX/Oil is getting WAY out of kilter this AM and a sharp correction is now overdue imo.
Belgian
(06/01/2004; 05:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 121672)
OPEC-ministers in Beirut, next thursday....
The message that the oil-majority wants to communicate is an old one (seventies). But now, it isn't a business (barter) of "cheap" oil anymore...it is a 100% dollar-matter. Oil, and many others with them, do see the dollar as it is (was) and want to say so in a delicate way...: The purchasing power of the dollar is " eroding "...and then they bite both lips as to not add "permanently" !

Oil and others want to do more business with Euroland and with its euro. Asian producers of "real products", dispatched all over the globe, have the same idea about the dollar in mind. The CBs of those that are increasingly receiving dollars (accumulating $-reserves) know what kind of Gold (market) there is architected, behind the euro concept. Oil and the real Asian manufacturing results are sold all over the world and not exclusively to the US. But everybody has to settle in the $-currency, wich is managed by the US and less and less in co-operation (support) from others.

The military might of the US is giving evidence that "terrorism" cannot be contained (exterminated) and we see the exact opposite result : more terror !!!
More terror (Saudi) causes a runaway from the dollar (exch. rate) and the former refuge status of of the (once mighty) dollar is not recognized anymore. Yes, something has changed 180�.

Of course, Jim Rogers is (counterproductively) exagerating about a vanishing dollar. Jim is not making the difference between a dollar in America and the dollar-floods outside America (International dollar). That's why Jim has to remain absolutely silent about GOLD as well as Buffet. Logical, no ?

I must admit that I'm surprised of not seeing a POO spiking.
The relatively orderly (disciplined) rise of the POO to a higher price zone, is an (intuitive) indication to me that the "situation" is MUCH worse than one might percept. And this for a long time to come. For the time being, there is no such thing as the "fear-factor" that is driving oilprices ! Neither are any of the global reserve (refinery bottlenecks and other) explanations.

Is there still enough Physical Gold available, at today's prices, to obtain (barter) a lower (moderate) $-POO !?

The dollar is now in the impossibility to shore up its credibility against the euro competitor, rising in exchange rate and with FreeGold behind it. The US is not capable of producing enough in exchange for the existing dollar masses. Value must be consolidated in the only "universal" tangible(Au) (and its new numeraire �), left.

Is not going to happen on the coming thurday, but this meeting is simply one of those little steps, out of many others to come, towards the idea of...FREEGOLD.

The management of (higher) oilprices must be done in such a way that the different world economies don't suffer all in the same degree, whilst enough pressure is building as to obtain the final goal of equal Value for the provided oil-value. Same reasoning goes for those that produce (sweat) for the confetti.

The dollar has only one defense left...print more and claim that it is pulling the whole global economy...with the confetti debauche ! Can this last or be turned around and sanitized !?
misetich
(06/01/2004; 07:00:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121673)
PCE Price Index (Price Inflation) Manipulation
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htmlSnip:

On the inflation front, the PCE price index results appeared significantly better than expected at first glance, but less so on further inspection. The detailed data not included in the initial press release indicated less favorable results for core inflation than implied by the lower than expected +0.1%/+1.4% core PCE price index reading for April. On a year-to-date basis, the core PCE price index was only up 1.7% annualized through April, significantly less than the +3.0% gain in the core CPI over this period. Detailed data, however, show that the core PCE price index has been artificially depressed by a big decline in the notorious price index for "services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries except life insurance carriers." This component of personal consumption attempts to value the services provided by banks to depositors without explicit charge such as check clearing, account statements, etc. The price measure used to produce this is based on an estimated spread between interest paid on deposits and interest earned on deposits and thus has little to do with any actual price changes. It's also very volatile and makes up a large enough share of consumption (about 2.5%) to significantly impact the overall PCE and core PCE price gauges. BEA has recently been computing a "market based" PCE that excludes imputed prices like this. The market based core PCE price index has risen at a 2.3% annual rate so far this year, above the Fed's 1% to 2% comfort zone for core inflation and up from +1.0% for all of 2003. A 23% year to date plunge in the imputed financial services measure has lowered the rate of increase in the core PCE measure by 0.7 percentage point.
********************
Misetich

From above article "Detailed data, however, show that the core PCE price index has been artificially depressed ......
.........has lowered the rate of increase in the core PCE measure by 0.7 percentage point

Each and every govenrment published statistic on price inflation is being manipulated, massaged, to HIDE reality

The creditability of the Feds is on the line as price inflation roars ahead whilst the Fed reports keep on massaging and manipulation "Real price inflation" downwards....

The net result -

1)higher inflation expectations as the Fed is ignored by the market place (those in the know)

2) the "reality show economic road map" being followed by the Feds, government agencies both at the local, state, and federal level, for decision making purposes is unreliable and false -

3) worsening of economic conditions as decision making policies are based on erroneous data

PONZI schemes always end up badly - a prudent investor would be wise to prepare for all possible contingencies and ADD insurace to their investment and retirement portfolio via PHYSICAL GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 08:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121676)
U.S. April construction spending up 1.3% By Rex Nutting
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid=%7BA868350D%2D6F6E%2D4CB2%2D8F40%2DFC1BAC0F9FF7%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Fueled by low interest rates, U.S. construction spending surged to a record high level in April after rising faster than previously estimated in March, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Construction spending rose 1.3 percent in April to a record $970.4 billion. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast a 0.4 percent rise in the month. In March, construction spending rose a revised 2.4 percent after the department initially esimated a 1.5 percent gain. Residential construction spending rose 1.2 percent to $520.7 billion in April. Public construction spending rose 1.7 percent in the month to a record $230.5 billion.
****************
Misetich

The highlight of this impressive growth is "Public construction spending rose 1.7 percent in the month to a record $230.5 billion."

Rising input raw materials prices are soaring hitting public construction spending budgets and deficits

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
slingshot
(06/01/2004; 09:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121679)
Navy to Sea and Major increase in M3
You can only guess what is happening. All is well and the public continues on in life without a care.
Ships going to sea for war games is never ending for the systems have to be tested and people trained to maintain and use these weapons. During the "Cold War" a massive exodus of ships to sea would have been a precurser to a major exchange. Have the Boomers left the North West and the South East?
If there was to be something bad like a nuclear war or a rock falling from the sky, all the increases in M3 would not mean didly. In this equation, one cancels the other out.
Turning to the markets and the increase in M3 is interesting. Is it to inject liquidy early to save the markets or to pay in advance for some future venture?
Gas at $2.00+ per gallon. Groceries prices up. Still China-Mart steams along and the grumbling has slowed. Settling into the New Age for we can do nothing about it. Or can we?
I find it hard that Gold's rise from $254 to $427 has not caught the publics eye. Insider trading and the widening of the Advance-Decline ratio. I think it does not matter anymore if your out of debt, payed off your home, put away some provisions and secured gold and silver for insurance.All you can do is watch and wait.
Slingshot-----------<>
Gandalf the White
(06/01/2004; 09:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 121681)
NOT to worry, GOLDHEARTS !! Just follow the little Green X's !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe "MARCH" continues and the next projected hesitation is at $448.
IF you (like the Hobbits) have your YELLOW, just sit back in your GOLDEN chair, and watch the games as the music starts and stops.
IF you have not started to gather your YELLOW, call USAGOLD NOW !
The LINK is to Friday's GOLD P&F chart !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/01/2004; 09:45:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121682)
Look OUT BELOW !!!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Look at the US$ after the Holidays -- TWO failed attemps to break the 89.05 level !!!
CAN you hear the bells and command ?
"DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !!!"
<;-(
misetich
(06/01/2004; 09:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121683)
Global: Global Blow-off? - S. Roach - MS
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040601-tue.html#anchor0Snip:

The initial impetus came from the US, where second-half GDP growth hit 6.1%, and from China, where gains averaged 9.7% over the same period. Collectively, these two economies grew at a 7.5% annual rate in the second half of last year, when their contributions are weighted on a purchasing power parity basis - the best way to gauge their underlying contribution to the global growth dynamic. With 34% of the world (by PPP weights) growing at a 7.5% annual rate, the magic was quick to spill over elsewhere into the broader world economy.

The rest of Asia was the major beneficiary of this two-pronged impetus to global growth. That was especially true in Japan, where annualized gains in GDP hit 5.0% in the second half of 2003 before accelerating further to 5.6% in the first period of calendar-year 2004. But elsewhere in the region, accelerating momentum in the second half of 2003 has also spilled over into early 2004. For example, gains in 1Q04 hit 6.3% in Taiwan, 5.3% in Korea, 7.6% in Malaysia, 7.5% in Singapore, and 6.4% in the Philippines. India, where the data lags are longer, entered this year with a considerable head of steam, having surged at a 10.4% annual rate in the final period of 2003. All in all, growth in Asia excluding China (but including Japan) - a region that collectively accounts for another 21% of world GDP on a PPP basis - appears to have surged at a 5.5% to 6.0% average annual rate in the first period of 2004.
............................
By our reckoning, between 40% and 50% of Japan's annualized 5.2% GDP growth over the past three quarters is traceable to the "China factor" - China-centric increases in exports, capital spending, and inventory.
....................
But the US paid a steep price for this renewed burst of economic growth. America's structural imbalances, which had already gone to excess, only worsened as the world was lifted by yet another strain of US-centric growth. That was underscored by unprecedented twin deficits in the current account and the federal budget, along with an all-time low in national saving and a record high of household sector indebtedness. China also paid a steep price for its growth surge; bottlenecks, property bubbles, runaway bank lending, and excess investment spending are all telltale signs of overheating that threaten the sustainability of economic expansion. In short, the costs of this global blowout cannot be minimized.

History demonstrates that economic cycles often sow the seeds of their own reversal.
.....................
Three key counter-cyclical forces are now falling into place that are likely to restrain economic growth in 2005: First, a normalization of the Fed's monetary policy stance will test America's newfound asset-driven growth dynamic; not only will it challenge conditions in asset markets, themselves - especially property - but it will also pose a stern test to the wherewithal of the overly indebted US consumer. Second, to the extent that the recent elevation in oil prices reflects greater pressures on the demand side rather than from the supply side of world energy markets (see our 28 May dispatch, "The Great Oil Debate"), little immediate relief can be expected as global growth remains surprisingly brisk. At $40, higher oil prices are a heavy tax on the world's energy consumers. At $50, the tax would probably turn into a shock. In either case, the outcome is a distinct negative for global growth, especially if it takes the form of a geopolitically-induced shock
........................
In my view, this is shaping up more and more as the boom that finally begets the bust
*********************
Misetich

Central bankers led by US and Japan fiat global flooding has charged up economic growth and price inflation worlwide-CHINA unsatiable appetite for energy and commodities continues at a reckless pace -

In the interim period as central bankers are reluctant to increase IR's and avoid systemic risks and increase jobs (EU & US) - a period of STAGLATION will ensue

CHINA's growth remains central going forward - "moderating growth" in China will create havoc for western industrialized economies as demand for energy and commodities would remain high by recent historical standards

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Gandalf the White
(06/01/2004; 09:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121684)
OOPS === Make that THREE failed attempts to break through !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10The US$ is "toast" !
Got YELLOW ?
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(06/01/2004; 10:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121685)
Just some simple thoughts from GAB - on the dollar transition

Have you noticed the recent talk about the need to quote oil in a "basket of currencies"?

The argument is, as I understand it: "There are today many large consumers of oil, not only the USA; many important consumers are now present and bidding for oil. It is reasonable that oil should therefore be quoted in a basket of the currencies of the most important consuming countries."

What this boils down to - my simple and unassuming understanding - is that this is a case of the Euro Camel wanting to put his nose under the edge of the Dollar tent, with a view to entering in fully, a bit later.

Of course, it's presented as a collective convenience, but it is actually a push by the Camel for his place in the tent.

The collective basket would be formed by a synthetic unit, the "Oily" worth one barrel of oil, and made up of, say - purely for discussion purposes here - of 50% dollar, 20% euro, 20% yuan, 10% yen. Thus, to buy one "Oily" you would pay:

50% of $40 = $20 US
20% of $40 in Euros = Euros 9.76
20% of $40 in Yuan = Yuan 66.4
10% of $40 in Yen = Yen 432

(All exchange rates approx., maybe even wrong today. But, you get the idea.)

FWIW.

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(06/01/2004; 10:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 121686)
Oops - slight mistake!

20% of $40 in Dollars is $8.00US, in Euros it is: Euros it is E6,56.

The GAB
mikal
(06/01/2004; 11:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121687)
Carriers and "coincidences"
http://www.rense.com/general53.htmBets On 6-11?
By George Paxinos
5-31-4 �-Excerpt:
"Recently, a good friend said to me: George, they did 9-11, they did 3-11, now they have got to do 6-11! �
Well, we all by now know the many symbologies of the first date, how exactly 11 years after Bush I on September 11, 1990, publicly spoke of a "New World Order" -- the Novo Ordo Seclorum on the back of the Greenback -- the hit on the WTC took place. �
We know that between the WTC hit and the Madrid Bombings, exactly 911 days intervened, and can so trace some of the wacky esoteric symbolisms and precepts running the esoteric societies in which the present would-be world-dominators are embedded, can gain some shocking insight into the state of their sick, psychotic symbology, by means of which their psychopathy can be justified to themselves in running a "never-ending generational war" for their own corporate profits, so perhaps it behooves even an amateur, such as myself, knowing but the merest smattering of such stuff, to look rather superficially at what MIGHT be in such sick minds, repressing a shudder, the while: �
6-11 falls on a FRIDAY, 11 for the Illuminati, 6 for the Feminine, the Goddess? �
Also, Friday is the Nordic Goddess Freya's Day! �
What fits a hit on Goddess's Day? �
A hit on the Statue of Liberty, perhaps?
WHY was the East Coast navy put on alert? see: http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=1902088
Navy to Deploy Carrier Groups to Test Rapid Readiness
A major exercise soon to be underway will have a large part of the Navy fleet deploying out of Norfolk.
WAVY News 10 has learned the Navy is sending seven carrier strike groups out to sea."
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 12:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 121688)
GFMS survey -- Trend to cut gold hedges accelerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040601/minerals_gold_2.htmlSYDNEY, June 1 (Reuters) - The trend to take fewer gold hedge positions doubled in the first quarter of this year to 2.7 million ounces compared with the previous quarter, as the price of bullion climbed...

Options positions were cut by 2.1 million ounces and forward positions by 600,000 ounces in the first quarter...

The fall meant 67.6 million ounces, equivalent to 83 percent of annual world mine production, remained hedged, it said.

Hedging, the practice of selling yet-to-be-mined nuggets at a preset price to lock in revenue, began falling out of favour as bullion prices climbed and interest rates recoiled.

Hedging protects miners when prices fall, but can backfire when gold prices rise. Bankruptcies occurred when gold prices unexpectedly leapt in 1999, forcing highly hedged mining firms to buy high and sell low and sparking a stampede away from the practice....

"The overriding sentiment amongst the industry's largest hedgers was to reduce positions still further," the survey said.

------(from url)----

The survey predicts that the level of hedging in play by year's end shall drop between 11 million and 13 million ounces worldwide.

The lasting lesson I would tend to stress for the world's people to carry forward out of this long sordid ordeal is this. As demonstrated here, just because gold ounces (kilos, grams, whatever) CAN be used as an accounting unit in monetary-style usage through banking and financial contracts, that doesn't mean it SHOULD be.

R.
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 13:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 121689)
Euro-area to seek coordinated policy response to oil prices
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040601/economy_eu_1.htmlLUXEMBOURG, June 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers voiced concern about the threat to economic growth and inflation from record oil prices on Tuesday and some said they would seek a coordinated policy response.

Arriving for their monthly informal meeting, several ministers said it was important to avoid uncoordinated tax responses of the kind that triggered blockades by truck drivers and farmers in 2000, causing disruption across Western Europe....

Oil prices have soared in recent weeks and on Tuesday U.S. crude hit a new record of $42 a barrel...

Eichel said EU states would seek to avoid unilateral moves, a point reiterated by Luxembourg Prime Minister and Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker.

"We must make sure that we all have the same reaction and not that some countries increase taxes while others do not."

...few were willing to openly call on the European Central Bank, which holds a policy meeting on Thursday, to help growth.

"What we see now is more or less adequate," Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser said when asked if lower interest rates would be appropriate given the risks to growth.

Also, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said a strong euro was cushioning Europe to some extent from the spike in oil, which is denominated in dollars.

------(from url)-----

If the euro strengthens on a pace similar to oil, it becomes quite obvious the issue is one of a rotting dollar.

Could a reserve asset withstand such a failing?

If a tree falls in the forest while the lumberjack is wearing earplugs...does it burn as hot in your fireplace?

R.
specie-man
(06/01/2004; 13:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121690)
The Fate of the Dollar
The fate of the dollar, in my view, is sealed. If the USA was a net creditor and a net exporter of oil, the situation would be different. But as it is, the dollar will loose it's world-wide reserve currency status. That process will start, in earnest, during the Fall of 2005.

Major lifestyle changes in the USA will result. But it will not be the end of the world. Look to the British example. The British Pound lost it's reserve currency status, but life went on in England. Pent-up imbalances, however, in the USA and abroad are much more severe now than when the Pound lost it's reserve status. So it will be a difficult time in the USA - a period of "hyper-stagflation". Weak job markets and wages, higher debt service costs, and much higher prices for essentials. For low to mid income people, this means lower standards of living.

According to the GAB, we should all "PRAY A LOT". Personally, I don't believe that will accomplish anything. Decisive action will be necessary to protect and preserve our selves, our families, and our friends. No one else (including "God") is going to take that action for us !

Starting with the next election, I will be taking a new course of action. I will never again vote for a Democrat or Republican. All my votes will go to alternative parties - even if they have virtually no chance of winning.

Also according to the GAB, "jews" and "Neocons" are practically joined at the hip. I'm neither Jewish nor a Neocon. But I think the GAB's assertion is overblown. I don't believe it is the Government's intention to put a ghetto wall around us (but they are, in essence, alienating a large part of the rest of the world). That alone has very negative implications for the US Dollar.



Great Albino Bat
(06/01/2004; 13:52:19 MDT - Msg ID: 121691)
Specie man - I take your criticism in stride....

Specie man - I am an OLD bat. When people get to my age, many find out how really powerless they are over the circumstances of their lives. Then we PRAY. We pray for strength to accept the inevitable, for strength to help those we can help, for understanding adequate to deal with our problems.

As for my other politcal remarks. The circumstances which I point out exist precisely because most people are unaware of their existence. So, yours is a majority opinion. I respect it as such.

The GAB
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 13:55:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121692)
Daily market rap, plus 24-hr economic headlines
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlexcerpts:

COMEX gold rallied to a five-week high on Tuesday, but ran out of gas shy of the $400 an ounce mark...

"It's no surprise that it made a first attempt," said a bullion trader. "Now it's trying to consolidate and, optimistically, it will make another attempt and try and chip away at this band of resistance up to $402."

Gold gathered momentum when it moved above its 200-day moving average at $396.40, but it failed to close above this key trend indicator. Traders said they saw the 100-day moving average imposing a hurdle at $403.20.

"You probably have to go over $402 to find the huge stops," said a floor broker, referring to previously placed buy orders...

Dollar disinvestment favored gold which is seen as a safe haven, lifting the August contract to $399.80 an ounce, its highest since April 28. It ended up 60 cents at $395.50...

Trade was technical. But traders said outside world events could determine whether gold clears the $400 level...

Oil prices surged $2 on Tuesday, hitting a record $42 a barrel... "I think it all depends on oil," said Graham Leighton, a vice president of bullion dealing at Societe Generale. "We're going to be mastered, playing to both oil and the dollar today."

-----(see url for access to full news)-----

ASSORTED GLOBAL HEADLINES:

Midwest economy strong, showing signs of inflation -- Columbia Daily Tribune, Missouri

UK May retail sales surge at fastest in 2 yrs -- Reuters.co.uk

Construction spending, manufacturing activity up, good signs for economy -- Star-Telegram, Texas

Yen interventions teach speculators a lesson -- Daily Yomiuri - Economy

May inflation creates new worries -- Jakarta Post - Business

Malawi central bank reduces bank borrowing rate, seen as bolster to economy -- China View - Business

Gold futures close with a modest gain -- AFX News

Stocks Fall on Rising Oil Prices -- Herald-Sun, North Carolina - Business

Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories strangling economy -- Channel NewsAsia - Business

Inflation cries getting louder in US -- Australian Financial Review - Money

FOREX-Dollar rise on upbeat data hit by rising oil -- Reuters
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 14:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121693)
A good article to brush up your political-economic savvy
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20040602wo13.htmHEADLINE: Yen interventions teach speculators a lesson

excerpts:

For the second consecutive month, May saw no intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Finance Ministry, ministry officials said Monday. Considering that yen-selling interventions last year exceeded 32 trillion yen, one cannot help but wonder why they have now completely stopped.

The interventions last year and in the early part of this year came amid a fierce battle between speculators, especially in hedge funds, and the government-Bank of Japan alliance. The interventions also were motivated by the government's strong desire to overcome deflation.

"The yen-buying pressure from speculators is strong. The amount of intervention today may exceed 1 trillion yen," a senior official in the finance ministry's International Bureau said matter-of-factly to Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki on the morning of Jan. 9, explaining the intervention policy drawn up by Deputy Finance Minister Zenbe Mizoguchi.

That morning, the yen-dollar exchange rate looked set to move into the 105 yen range. Without hesitation, Tanigaki gave the go-ahead to the Bank of Japan dealing room to start selling billions upon billions of yen--a move that caused consternation among foreign exchange bosses at major banks. They wondered how many dollars the ministry was going to buy, judging that the ministry was set to run out of intervention funds.

As they expected, the ministry spent all its intervention funds, but it then began selling dollar bonds that it was holding to the Bank of Japan to obtain a further 5 trillion yen in intervention funds. At about 2 p.m., the ministry issued sell orders for a further 500 billion yen. The total amount of intervention that day reached a record of about 1.67 trillion yen.

When asked why it had conducted such an unprecedentedly massive intervention, one senior ministry official said, "It wasn't so much to weaken the yen, but more to stop the speculators."...

...At Japan's insistence, the joint statement at February's G-7 summit meeting in Boca Raton, Fla., expressed concern about excessive fluctuation of rates.

Following the statement, some speculators at the futures market in Chicago started to call off their yen buying. In other major markets, however, speculators continued buying yen in an attempt to push it higher against the dollar. Even after late February, when the underlying trend reverted to a weakening yen, the government and the Bank of Japan continued intervening until the speculators pulled out of the market and the exchange rate was close to 110 yen to the dollar. By early March, most speculators had no option but to give up. Having achieved its goal, the ministry has since stayed out of the foreign exchange markets.

At about this time, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow publicly warned Japan against further intervention.

His comments came despite the fact Mizoguchi had reported almost daily to U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor about the interventions without hearing any protest from the U.S. side.

"While we were intervening, the United States didn't ask us to stop. I guess Snow's comments were intended for domestic consumption given that the Treasury Department knew that Japan had achieved its goals and didn't plan any further intervention by that stage," a Japanese finance specialist explained.

------(from url)-----

You certainly don't need my comments to see your way clear.

R.
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 14:30:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121694)
USAGOLD~Centennial's Info Packet: Hello Newcomers, take advantage of this resource!
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlIf you are new to the gold market or feel you've been mistreated elsewhere, treat yourself to a genuine friend in the business. Your introductory step toward helpful information and investment assistance is just a simple click and short request-form away!

R.
Federal_Reserves
(06/01/2004; 15:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121695)
More productivity gains on the way!
Job cut plans rise

Announcements by major U.S. firms climbs for second straight month, employment firm says.
June 1, 2004: 10:13 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The number of job cuts planned by U.S. employers rose for the second straight month in May as firms announced plans to cut more than 73,000 jobs, an outplacement firm said Tuesday.

U.S. businesses announced 73,368 job cuts in May, up from 72,184 job cuts in April, a gain of 1.6 percent, according to Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which keeps track of monthly job-cut announcements.

>> Keep cutting jobs and borrowing our way to prosperity!
>> This is the plan, until it stops working.


misetich
(06/01/2004; 16:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121696)
Reality Check: U.S. Auto Dealers: May Sales Up But Tough Haul Jun 1 / 9:22 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - Most U.S. auto dealers saw a jump in
sales in May, albeit not without some struggle, as consumers were distracted by war news, more terrorism alerts and the high cost of filling up a tank.

Sales of big SUVs were OK, with factories offering bountiful
incentives to offset high fuel prices -- and so far there's scant evidence that consumers are "trading down" to smaller SUVs and passenger cars, dealers say.

Yet dealers are taking no chances and are cutting orders for the largest SUVs to reduce inventories. At the same time they're trying to beef up orders for fuel-efficient hybrids, which are gaining in popularity but are in short supply.

Even dealers that did well in May expressed some doubts about this market, describing it as both erratic and unpredictable -- the exception being Toyota and other Japanese makes, which continue to make strong headway in the U.S. market.

"We had a very dismal start to this month and a great finish, putting it in line with last year which was a great month," said Bryan Kasper, general manager of The Kasper Auto Group based in Sandusky, Ohio. "I have no reason for the turnaround. I have never seen such an unstable market -- up and down like a roller coaster."
****************
Misetich

May is a traditional good month for auto sales - as it normally includes 5 week-ends

The auto industry is still a key sector - bell weather of the US economy - and its becoming wobbly, as sales remain fairly good, buyoed by steep incentives - inventories are rising which may lead to production cut backs

Japanese car makers are gaining market share as the manipulated Yen gives then an unfair advantage

Job losses

The challenge is going forward - some production cut-backs are to be expected in the 3rd - 4th qtr which would be detrimental to job creation and worst still increased job losses

The Feds are under pressure to increase IR's - yet the auto industry and housing markets which have been carrying the economy would be affected negatively by such an event

Job creation is the Feds exit strategy of the mess they've created -

They have failed thus far as millions of jobs have vanished - increasing BUDGET DEFICITS

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 17:16:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121697)
Roaring price inflation
Headline snips

Grains, Soybeans Close Sharply Higher
U.S. light crude closed up $2.44 at $42.32 a barrel,
Home prices grow 7.7 percent during Q1
The price of a gallon of milk has gone up twice as much in the last 12 months as the price of a gallon of gas.

Retail U.S. gasoline prices have been zipping along near all-time highs over $2.05 a gallon in nominal terms

Price inflation is running wild - forget the nonsense of 2-5% - in most cases its in 10-20% variety.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 17:27:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121698)
China drains raw materials
http://www.freep.com/money/business/china29e_20040529.htmSnip:

BEIJING -- China's economy is expanding at a blistering pace, and 8,000 miles away in North Port, Fla., the construction industry is feeling the heat.

So many freighters are tied up shipping goods to China, there aren't enough left to deliver cement for the booming housing market in North Port, south of Sarasota.

"I panicked," said North Port home builder Nick Bonsky, who in early May couldn't find any concrete, of which cement is a key ingredient. When he finally got some, it cost plenty. "I wasn't expecting China to have that much of an immediate and direct impact."
.....................
China has 4,813 cement plants -- more than the rest of the world combined -- and they still aren't enough to supply the cement for mammoth projects such as the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River or the stadiums and housing for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games
........................
China's massive purchases of factory equipment from Japan sparked a recovery in that country's long-dormant economy.

"The turnaround in Japan is really all an echo of what's going on in China," said Bob Froehlich, the vice chairman of Scudder Investments in Chicago.

China has supplanted the United States as South Korea's No. 1 export market.

"Every economy in Asia is transforming itself to deal with China as its largest trading partner," said Tim Condon, chief economist in the Hong Kong office of ING Financial Markets.
....................
China surpassed Europe three years ago as the largest export market for American soybeans, and soybean farmers are enjoying high prices, thanks to a combination of a poor harvest and growing Chinese demand.
.....................
China's appetite for soybeans, for animal feed and cooking oil has helped Argentina and Brazil climb back from economic crises
****************
Misetich

CHINA's growth is devouring raw materials at an unprecendented pace - Many are expecting a hard landing - a banking collapse - in the meantime while the "pessimists" are awaiting for the "big event" CHINA consumption of raw materials continues, day by day, week by week, month by month, propelling global commodiities price inflation in the double digits

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 17:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121699)
China to up investment hurdles for auto sector
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1085944429327&p=1012571727313Snip:

China's car market, after growing by 70 per cent in 2003, has continued its astonishing increase in sales so far this year, with a year-on-year rise to April of about 40 per cent.

The rate of growth is expected to slow because of the central government's crackdown on banks issuing car loans, but so far the market remains robust.

Even with a slowdown to a growth rate of 20 per cent, China is expected to overtake Japan as world's second biggest auto market within 2-3 years.
***************
Misetich

China's growth - fact or fiction? The ascension of the Red Dragon economy in the world stage is not to be underestimated - and its effects on the industrialized nations that have relied on manipulated cheaply priced natural resources are/were unanticipated

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 18:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121700)
US again warns China over military buildup against Taiwan
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4988910∾tion=articleSnip:

WASHINGTON (AFX) - The US warned again that China's military buildup against Taiwan was destabilizing.

"Military coercion was counterproductive," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told reporters. "We do see the military buildup and missile deployments as destabilizing."

Beijing's arsenal arrayed against Taiwan includes approximately 500 short-range ballistic missiles.

Two days ago, the US Defence Department warned in a report that China was developing "credible military options" to prevent Taiwan from achieving independence, including tools to discourage the US from coming to the island's aid in a conflict with the mainland.

China on Tuesday defended its military build-up as essential to safeguard national sovereignty and accused the Pentagon of having "ulterior motives" and maintaining Cold War thinking.

Cross-strait tensions have been on the rise since 2000, when independence-leaning politician Chen Shui-bian became Taiwanese president.
..................
The US acknowledges Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China and does not have official relations with the island.

However, Washington is bound by law to provide weapons to help Taiwan defend itself if its security is threatened.

The Taiwan issue is the largest friction point between the US and China.

Boucher said the US had opposed the use of force to settle the conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

"Because it's a situation that is of importance to us and concern to us, we want to see peaceful resolution. We don't want to see coercion. And we want to be quite clear on that," he said.

On the possibility of the European Union lifting its arms embargo on China, Boucher said the US had made clear its view that it was not time to lift the restriction yet.
**************
Misetich

CHINA - TAIWAN issue is not going away anytime soon - and its going to get more heated....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/01/2004; 18:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 121701)
Nobel laureate warns of risks of RMB appreciation
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200406/01/eng20040601_144996.htmlSnip:

China should be determined in saying "no" to the appreciation of the Chinese currency Renminbi (RMB), said Nobel Prize laureate Robert Mundell in Beijing Sunday.

Mundell, who attended a forum on the global economy and China in the world financial system, said that as the RMB is not fully convertible, appreciation of the currency would bring about a series of crises.

These would include lower foreign investment and economic growth, bigger non-performing loans of banks, higher losses of state-owned enterprises and unemployment rates as well as more unstable factors for the Southeast Asian economies, which will affect the RMB's future influence in the region, he said.

China's financial authorities might risk losing control of the economy as speculative money could flood the banking system if the RMB would be revalued, he said.

The RMB appreciation has no benefits either for China or for other countries, he said, suggesting that the Chinese government should resolutely reject such a move.

In addition, the professor from Columbia University in the United States said the floating exchange rate mechanism is not a good solution for China. The better policy choice for the Chinese government is to fix its exchange rates based on its goals of controlling inflation.

China's pegged yuan system since 1997 has effectively controlled commodity prices better than the seven industrial powers. Any change in China's monetary policy should take into account present and future inflation factors, he said.

Currently, China maintains a unified, managed floating exchangerate regime based on supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market implemented since 1994.

As for the "Asian Dollar", the "father of the euro" said it is difficult to tell the possibility and timetable of a unitary Asiancurrency, which has high requirements for regional economic integration, while for the euro zone, such objective is likely to be achieved in the next 10 to 15 years.

The RMB will become a successor of the US dollar and euro, he predicted, which means China should not make the yuan a supranational currency in Asia.
**************
Misetich

"The RMB will become a successor of the US dollar and euro"

Also in CHINA news, there was a repeat story of China's diversification of their $440 billion currency reserves - from US $ to other currencies

China's gold reserves are only at 2% well below leading nations averages and it stands to reason they will ADD some more as the US $ continues its descending path

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
specie-man
(06/01/2004; 18:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121702)
@ GAB - opinions
My general opinions about things is certaing not in the majority. If I held the majority opinion, I probably wouldn't be here at this site. And I'm sure that goes for everyone here. Us "gold bugs" are, almost by definition, the minority.

I realize that a lot of people take comfort in prayer, and that helps them get through things. In my case, I prefer to take action and control my own destiny, rather than trusting or hoping for the right outcome. I'm not critcizing your beliefs at all, and there is nothing wrong with them - they work for you. I'm just stating that my beliefs are different.

Regarding the Jewish/Neocon thing -
A lot of Jewish people are Democrats. Is there also a Jewish/Liberal conspiracy ? I don't know. There are plenty of conspiracies floating around. But they are NOT limited to Jews and/or Neocons.

Great Albino Bat
(06/01/2004; 22:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 121706)
Just a feeling...and good night to all!

I have been surfing around the net.

I am impressed by the very strong upwelling of resentment about US govt. policies that I find expressed, by individuals who can be considered "intellectuals".

No government can stand up to opposition from its intellectuals. The USSR is an example.

This upwelling of resentment and opposition will increase with each expression gaining support from another's.

Not Hollywood, not the Media, not the Press, not Homeland Security, nothing can make this back down, now. It is too strong and has too many adherents. Impossible to silence them. Bush is out, along with his crew.

This is good for the country: STOP! Is the first thing to do when you are on the wrong track.

I predict a sea-change coming over the great USA, soon. All for the best.

****

PRECIOUS METALS: The trend is up and will continue up for a LONG time. No question about that, hands down. Support our good hosts and buy your gold from them - AND do yourself a favor!

Be good!

Goodnight to all!

The GAB
melda laure
(06/01/2004; 23:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 121707)
Mundell double lambe
"The better policy choice for the Chinese government is to fix its exchange rates based on its goals of controlling inflation. "...

"China's pegged yuan system since 1997 has effectively controlled commodity prices better than the seven industrial powers. Any change in China's monetary policy should take into account present and future inflation factors, he said. "

With all due respect his learned professorship... ahem.... BWAHA HA HAHHAHAHAHAHAH!!! ROTFLMOL! eh..

Sorry... couldn't resist... cant... catch breath! Ah me.

In regards to preventing speculation, I suppose what Mundell means is preventing INTERNATIONAL hot money flows, (because it seems that the Chinese are doing a fine job of speculating on their own in the privacy of their own liquidity kiddie pool).

And I suppose that by "controlling inflation" he did not mean to imply that the chinese were "preventing inflation" since quite to the contrary, they appear to have set the controlling lever on the inflation sluice to about 5000 acre-feet per millisecond. Apparently all those disastrous yellow river floods have taught them the importance of being able to tame the great liquidity inundations of our times. Apparently the chinese model is: yellow water just fine, thank you; keep stinky GREEN water waves in your own pool!
TownCrier
(06/01/2004; 23:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 121708)
Unbalanced consequences
Not for the first time, I've again been handed word from one of Centennial's clients that he is walking on account of frustration with this forum (viewed as an extension of Centennial's operations). The common refrain is they have considered it to be a disservice to their quest for practical gold-related information with its several recurrences of anti-establishment rants, off-topic posts, and "news" which is so far afield from gold that they can't decipher any meaningful connection.

Wherever ill-will is not at work in the hands of the various "transgressing" posters, the fault and failure is surely mine in not adequately articulating the posting groundrules within the forum guidelines, in private emails, and through the intermittant public course-corrections like this one.

All that I ask, in the interest of maintaining the good graces and support of our host, is that you, in turn, endeavor to support them with your precious metals business, and insofar as your posting is concerned, please bear in mind that the consequences (of your postings of potentially divisive subject matter) are unbalanced in the regard that it is only Centennial that bears the brunt when offended visitors are thus driven away.

As much as we stress that the news and views posted by the public do not necessarily reflect those of the host, it remains a fact that visitor often find that differentiation difficult to make. Their impression of the host is offen shaped and tainted most by the posts they find most disagreeably offensive. In addition to being our raison d'�tre, that's also why we stress that posters stick closely to the topic of gold and money -- because nobody here will find gold and money an offensive topic.

Thanks for your cooperation, and for you understanding if the occassional post finds itself under the falling ax in the interest of the big picture.

R.
melda laure
(06/02/2004; 00:16:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121709)
Oil in currency baskets.
@ GAB.

I always thought it wasn't a question of how the price is quoted (0.19 taters, 0.33 ninnyhammers 0.47 plugged nickels and a pinch of bolivars) so much as how the sale was finally cleared. In other words, are yen acceptable payment? Euros? Rand? Wet napkins?

And for that matter, acceptable to whom? The afghans wont take rubles. And while the euro may be "the other white meat" I cant help but wonder if the oil producing world isn't smart enough to see that pork is pork, and that this new association of restauranteurs have great cultural ties to the previous bunch.

Yes, yes, the euro area wants euro-oil settlement. Does anybody ask what the oil area wants? Wine? Bratwurst? or Fortune cookies?
slingshot
(06/02/2004; 00:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121710)
GAB Msg # 121666
Great post GAB. Had to reread it a few times and I have to tell you, "preception is everything". If the USA is precieved as being a rogue nation, then what role would the rest of the world have it be. The maintaining of a war machine costs dearly. FRN's are printed to the max to pay for the excursions into many nations all under the guise of world stability. And the world pays. They subsidize our debt but complain about our actions to secure the oil to protect our economy. Higher energy prices will effect ours and so the cascading will effect theirs in the end. Should a world court denounce the USA as an aggressor and have them pull back all military personel, and the USA place those in a simular work force (as in the 30's) to build nuclear/ solar /wind power generating stations, decreasing it military might to a defensive posture.How would the world feel then? Now I am not saying become an isolationist, as trade would be important, just taking out the military usage in world events. If the shift of respondsibility to provide security shifted to Europe for a stable world, how would the Euro fair? How much will they have to print to support stability in the world? How many troops will the European Union send abroard? What will happen to gold as the dollar declines as the world reserve transfers to the Euro only to have the Euro find itself in the same situation in spending to keep the peace? If the USA withdrew support in the ME after acquiring energy efficency, that is drilling in protected land,nuclear,wind, and coal, how would the world react? Can the EU deal with China rising as a superpower? Don't forget about Russia.
Now I do not want to Offend any Knight or Lady. It is just that world politics are not black and white but are fading into grey.
Slingshot--------------<>
melda laure
(06/02/2004; 00:57:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121711)
Fantasy baskets
Well Mr TC, I'm guilty enough of speaking in tongues!

The flip side of accepting a currency basket is turning that basket around and spending it. Assuming you accept a basket of assorted wet napkins (currency basket) for oil: Will the south africans trade gold for you basket?
Will the Japanese trade mitsubishi earth movers for the basket?
Will ANYBODY else accept your basket for something other than oil?
If not, then why would you want it?

Euro-oil settlement must come with euro-settlement in general. And that is just another kind of dollar unless there is some gold "reference" point trading freely to tell you if you're winning or loosing value. More wet napkins (pick any color) will not alter the fashion of the world.

You could of course mark your napkin winnings TODAY to the POG. The key question is then, is POG real? Today unfortunately it is not, and absolutely so. Nor (for similar reasons) is the CRB a suitable substitute. There can be no real prices when a finite and real earth is admixed with imaginary money. The blood spilled in war is mixed with imaginary finance which pays for the bombs and the fuel and the uniforms and the VA benefits. Thus McCain is right to say that civilians have not had to "sacrifice" in this endeavor as of yet.

There are no real prices. A price is "x-widgets per dollar". If the dollars are imaginary then so must be the prices quoted therin. But the costs! The Costs are seen every day. Lives lost per week, acres of forest burned per year, and gallons of fuel burned per mile traveled. Malinvestments and wasted resources. It is fruitless to even worry too much about the price of gold in measuring your "opportunity cost". Dollars not earned vs. ounces in the hand bought last year is a meaningless measure (unless the dollars put to real use). Think of wine not purchased vs gold in the hand. The day comes when whatever you might have gained you will count as nothing, and that which you did gain will count as all.

Assuming you embraced the truth of gold.
Waverider
(06/02/2004; 01:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121712)
World to See Afghanistan's Fabled Bactrian Gold
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/SciTech/reuters20040601_136.html"The world could soon catch a glimpse of Afghanistan's fabled Bactrian gold, as preparations get under way to exhibit some of the 20,000 or so pieces that make up the country's most important ancient treasure trove. Dates and locations have yet to be finalized but the United States, France, Germany, Japan and Greece, are among countries interested in hosting the 2,000-year-old haul that has miraculously remained intact despite years of war and upheaval...Raheen said there were 20,600 gold pieces in the collection. The trove was from a nomad burial site in what was once Bactria, lying between the Hindu Kush mountains and the Amu Darya river, also known as the Oxus. The coins, necklaces set with gems, belts, medallions and crowns have never been seen outside Afghanistan."
Belgian
(06/02/2004; 01:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121713)
Crude or cruel oil ?
Global Oil has been devaluating the planet's reserve currency by Another 5% ! This way of looking at oil and the dollar, global stuff by the way, sounds MUCH more different than simply saying...the POO has been rising...

The whole world is now daily reminded that the global $-currency, that we all "use" in one way or Another, IS blatantly and vastly *overvalued* ! Soon, every man/women will start realising that this famous dollar-thing in his/her pocket has been over-inflated, fraudulently.
And whilst this unmasking process is taking place,...the price of the universal (!!!) yellow precious doesn't move a nanometer. How extra-ordinary !? The dollar's lifetime is being "extended"...purposely and for Another cause.

The absurd low POG, under the present pressing circumstances, is evidencing very strongly that the contained goldprice MUST act as the ultimate "stabilizer" !!! Under today's enormous building pressure, financial mediatic guiders remain absolutely silent in their gold-comments ! Contained IRs do their job in stabilizing the "debtbergs".

What an "explosive" coctail is there in the making !?

This *will-shall-must* end with the expected *** price-floating *** of Gold . The Internationally holded gold-reserves (CBs), are going to need/demand a golden "balance" against the dramatically devaluing $-debt-reserves, they do see melting away, more clearly by the day, through the concerted oil-actions !

A probable trigger for this could be the idea that the US-$ will start pointing a finger at Saudi Arabia and the flow/drain of political Gold (Treasury)(deep storage gold) gets out of the question !

Not even a cat believes that the low POG is evidence of good dollar-management anymore, aka strong dollar. If the POO keeps up the (gradual)pressure, more (increased) dollar-printing will be necessary and a further contained POG will evidence that "they" want to block the paper-gold escape route and let the paper-goldmarket implode. No use to continue to inflate papergold market when (paper)prices get frozen(unmoved). Yesterday's intraday price-actions (oil + 6%) on oil and gold did illustrate how the POG has been frozen (my interpretation).

The picture : The enormous tide is rising, keeps rising and many ships are being anchored with more heavyweight chains !
LET GOLD-VALUE FLOAT FREELY,... NOW !!!
968
(06/02/2004; 02:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121714)
@Belgian Your message # : 121713
Goodmorning Belgian,
I read your brilliant post this morning. I get your point, but how long will it take before Joe Sixpack sees things this way ? As long as oil continues to rise, government officials will point a finger at OPEC. I doubt one out of ten people will see for example currency depreciation in higher IR, or currency depreciation in rising POO. They will see the EURO (in USD)= 1.2271 and they will say : "Oh, this has been worse without these oil prices". They don't understand the fiat currencies are freely floating against each other without gold-backing,...
You say "Not even a cat believes that the low POG is evidence of good dollar-management anymore". To what extent you think this is coordinated between FED/IMF---ECB/BIS while their "gold outlook" is quite different.
As you say I'm too convinced Saudi Arabia will be the trigger.
Last question : "how do you think the Fed will manage the problem when Japan (or foreign CBs) stop(s) (or slow(s) down) buying US-debt ?"

Focus Saudi Arabia, Buy gold, sit down and watch the events !
misetich
(06/02/2004; 04:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121715)
Oil Prices Reach New Peak As Terrorism Anxieties Jump
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7943-2004Jun1.htmlSnip:

"If you take out Saudi Arabia's capacity, even only for a couple of months, you have a sort of double impact. You've removed some actual production, but you've also made it impossible to replace the lost production. If you take out production in Nigeria, in theory the Saudis can ramp up production to make up that shortfall."
.....................
"This is a big change from the '70s and '80s and most of the '90s," Goldstein said. "OPEC historically has had 6 to 8 million barrels a day of spare production capacity. Today, it's less than 2 million barrels a day. Moreover, that is in the context of demand that is now 80 million barrels a day, not 70 million as it was before."

The situation will last at least through summer, Goldstein predicted, when a drop in gasoline demand will finally put a bit of slack into the system.
******************
Misetich

Oil producing nations are almost tapped out - with little spare capacity
Demand remains high as the global economic recovery is still humming - primarily in Asia - restulting in much highr price inflation worldwide

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/02/2004; 04:40:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121716)
Dollar Burdened by Heavy Fuel Costs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8779-2004Jun2.html?nav=headlinesSnip:

Investors have been selling the dollar since late May after world oil prices soared to their highest levels in more than two decades on concerns U.S. consumer spending and business investment could slow down. This could delay U.S. rate hikes.
.................
"The U.S. interest rate curve has already priced in at least 100 basis points in rate hikes by the end of the year.
.....................
****************
Misetich

US $ and Gold show a correlation factor of near to 95% in the last 3 years or so.
The current resumption of the descending path of the US $ reflects the slowdown in the US economy. According to a recent survey (Hudson Employment Index) "fewer U.S. employers hired workers in May, sending a job market index to the lowest level all year, a report said on Wednesday."

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(06/02/2004; 04:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121717)
@986
...The pitcher goes so often to the well that it comes home broken at last...!

One can "liquidify" everything up until the stone bottle bursts and the chained (locked up) goldprice is floated.

Joe Sixpack, you, me, us, CBs...all go along, stay along up until the whole house of cards, crumbles.

Nobody wishes deliberately to crash anything ! The increasing scale-magnitude-frequency of "interventions" is to prevent the avalanche. But the avalanche will-shall-must come down. One cannot intervene, support, hide, deceive... ad infinitum. What we see today, with the evolving POO is just Another one of those pillars that crumble under the supporting platform of the planet's dollar-system. Listen to the opening speeches in Beirut.

At a certain time, any kind of intervention or/and support is NOT having any effect anymore on the economic/financial/monetary whole. And then everything starts to go wrong and gets out of hand.

Things (markets-economies) can remain functional for a very long time under a lot of stress (anomalies),...but there are final limits, where the "system" (dollar) cannot live/function anymore and the towels are thrown into the ring. Then it is only a matter of who did anticipate properly to the new/altered system, and who didn't.

I think (am almost convinced) that w're coming close to the day of reckoning and this time, it's going to be different. Dollar exhaustion + isolation, because of the dollar's unilateralism as the only option that was left, after so much time of support, goodwill and mutual interests.

The FED will keep on liquidifying and the ECB will keep trying to stabilize, whilst the dollar-debt tide rises.

Don't count on the general public to take any action. They are absolutely paralysed (aneasthesized) in every aspect of its autonomy/common sense.

It is the growing paradox of super liquidification and (forced-percepted) stability, that will make the goldprice break loose from its anchor-chain and float...rocket to the surface for oxygenation...REVALUATION !!!

Listen to oil (not only OPEC) talks in Beirut ! Don't listen to the reporting media's comments...NONSENSES...
Ned
(06/02/2004; 04:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121718)
More comicial mainstreet press coverage.....
http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/columnists/story.html?id=0195b40f-c18b-4176-aa53-c78ac006d25cAnyone want to take a crack at this one:

"The price of oil might go to $70 a barrel in some scenarios, but it is unlikely to stay there. In fact, it is certain the price will eventually fall back to reflect the realities of supply and demand. The long-term price of oil and all energy is downward, not upward. The price of all commodities, from gold to copper to uranium to oil to gas and coffee, has been downward for the past 100 years and nothing, short of government intervention and mismanagement, is likely to change the trends.

Even the price of wind power is coming down, driven lower by the same forces of technology that continue to revolutionize the methods used to produce energy from crude oil. There is no shortage of oil, and there never will be, an insight brilliantly demonstrated by the late Julian Simon in his iconoclastic book, The Ultimate Resource. "Through the centuries, the prices of energy -- coal, oil, and electricity -- have been decreasing rather than increasing, relative to the cost of labour and relative to the price of consumer goods, just as with all other natural resources."

Scares about the pending "end of oil" and other energy scarcities are not good reasons to set pricing and supply policy. Nor is it a good reason to set economic policy based on the possible impact of terrorist attacks and temporary price distruptions. Over the long term, political and military considerations aside, the supply of energy is abundant and the price is declining. That implies governments and their tax manipulations should be left out of the equation."


I sent the man an email along the lines of "do some research"!
Topaz
(06/02/2004; 05:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 121719)
melda laure (6/2/04; 00:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 121711)
Ah melda, once again I find myself agreeing with you wholeheartedly. Good post.
Topaz
(06/02/2004; 05:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121720)
This will test the mettle of absolute Dollar.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Bonds AND DX seen weaker this AM whilst Oil still clings to $40ish. To correct this speculative imbalance we'd like to see a $4 drop real soon...otherwise the less acceptable option of a DX run back to 92.

If either/or fails we may not be in Kansas anymore!
misetich
(06/02/2004; 06:08:50 MDT - Msg ID: 121721)
Personal debt in UK reaches 'alarming' levels
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1085944457521&p=1012571727088Snip:

Mortgage lending soared to a new record in April, taking Britons' overall debt to their highest level yet, figures from the Bank of England showed on Wednesday.

Consumer debt is on the brink of exceeding Britain's annual national income, further increasing the chances the Bank will raise rates again next week to curb the continued run-up in debt.
..................
At current growth rates, total net lending will breach the �1,000bn mark later this month. This is equivalent to Britain's annual economic output, and is as much as the external debt of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia put together.
***************
Misetich

Rising debt levels are offset by "wealth creation" in perceived housing values and the UK has experienced extreme housing prices rise

The various housing bubbles worlwide, (correlated with higher debt bubble) which the IMF has cautioned represents an accident ready to happen -

The trigger point is anyone's guess.....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/02/2004; 06:21:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121722)
Gold May Rise 8% in 2004 as Dollar Falls, Goldman Sachs Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a.TDLDiHb0ys&refer=latin_americaSnip:

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise 8 percent this year because of buying by hedge funds and an expected decline in the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the euro, Goldman Sachs JB Were Pty. analyst Ian Preston said in a report.

The precious metal may rise to $428 an ounce by 2005 as the dollar weakens to $1.30 against the euro, the Goldman Sachs report, released June 1, said. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against declines in other U.S. assets when the dollar falls against the European currency.
........................
``If our view is correct that we could see renewed U.S. dollar gold strength, we would expect the speculative positions to start building, adding momentum to the gold price,'' Preston said.
**************
Misetich

There's a major disconnect between oil prices - commodities price inflation and current gold prices which stands to be rectified in the near future...with gold resuming its upward trend in US $ initially followed by a breakout in Euros, Yen and all other world currencies as The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe picks up momentum...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/02/2004; 06:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121723)
WGC Reports Gold Consumer Demand Up Q1 2004
http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/pdf/supply_demand010604.pdfSnip:

London, 2 June 2004: Figures published today by the World Gold Council reveal that consumer demand for gold has improved over the last year. Consumer demand for gold (jewellery and net retail investment) was up by 12% in tonnage terms, and by 30% in dollar terms, in the first quarter of 2004, compared to the somewhat depressed levels of a year earlier.

The World Gold Council reports that although complicated by the sharp upward movement in the gold price, consumer demand for gold actually increased in monetary terms during the period since 2001.
..........................
Commenting on the supply/demand dynamics for the first quarter 2004, James Burton, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council (WGC), said: "In the face of a 55% rise in the dollar gold price, historically we would have expected consumer demand to recede due to the sensitivity of Asian and Middle Eastern markets to price volatility. Actually this quarter, the money flowing into gold from consumers was 37% up on Q1 2002 in dollar terms, and 25% higher than in Q1 2001, demonstrating a positive underlying trend."
.............................
Overall supply of gold was 7% lower in tonnage terms than one year earlier
.....................
partly offset by an acquisition of 28 tonnes by Argentina.
..................
Net retail investment is up 14% year on year in tonnage terms.
..................
The first quarter of this year saw a steady rise (8% in tonnage terms and 26% in dollar terms) in industrial demand for gold
..................
Among the markets participating in the recovery in jewellery demand for gold, strong year-on-year rises were recorded in India (21%), Vietnam (36%) and Turkey (38%) in tonnage terms
.....................
****************
Misetich

Very bullish report....and its only the beginning ....as investment demand will resume its upward trend as global economic imbalances accelerate and price inflation roars ahead....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/02/2004; 06:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121724)
Oil-gold ratio is out of whack
http://www.mineweb.net/events/conferences/2004/nyigc/oilgold.htmSnip:

NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- The ratio of the price of oil to the price of gold has been a matchbox valuation guide for the hydrocarbon economy as much as the price of good suit was a gentleman's benchmark in an era when horsepower was literal. The price ratio has recently gone beyond normal bounds and that has some investors musing about a catapult for gold assuming things must revert to the mean and since nobody is forecasting cheaper oil anytime soon.

Lately, oil prices have been hitting record nominal highs above $40 a barrel yet gold has barely kept pace, especially when it suffered a bout of corrective long liquidation. Patrick Chidley, a New York based sell-side analyst for Barnard Jacobs Mellet, said, in a recent note to clients, that since 1971, the number of ounces of gold required to buy one barrel of oil has averaged 0.06oz/bbl.

At recent prices, the ratio soared above 0.1oz/bbl.- a level seldom seen in the past 34 years since the United States delinked the dollar from gold. "Each breach has been short-lived, usually followed by a dramatic fall," writes Chidley
....................
To regain the average ratio of 0.06oz/bbl, gold must cost $700 per ounce or oil must cost $24 per barrel.

What oil suggests is looming inflation which causes investors to switch to alternative assets such as gold. Chidley warns: "A sustained or continued rise in oil prices from current levels has a good chance at pushing inflation in the US out of the controlled range the market is currently comfortable with." In that case he's backing gold to "possibly provide a hedge against a short oil position."
.................
This all seems to indicate that the Federal Reserve has very few options and the most attractive must be to expand credit in a way that accommodates structurally higher oil prices. The alternative is to choke off growth and that is not an option; at least not before November 5, 2004.
****************
Misetich

Higher oil prices are here to stay - The "new unofficial price band" is in the $30's which would suggest much, much higher gold prices

Its worthwhile repeating since with time most ratios revert to their mean

"To regain the average ratio of 0.06oz/bbl, gold must cost $700 per ounce or oil must cost $24 per barrel."

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/02/2004; 07:07:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121725)
Bullion looks bullish as US deficit threatens stability
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=642&fArticleId=2097973Snip:

In the face of uncertainty in world markets, many investors are buying gold as a store of value, as reflected in its rising price.

In its long history, gold has gone from being a commodity used to make jewellery to a currency - and then, when the gold backing of currencies was removed, it reverted largely to a commodity. Now it is back in a monetary role, as confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge accumulated deficit.
........................
This system collapsed because investors came to distrust the dollar. Faced with the prospect of not being able to meet the demand for gold, central banks demonetised the metal.
..........................
The similarities to the early 1970s are uncanny: poorly conducted monetary policy, a crisis in the Middle East, an American president who does not command confidence outside the US and the emergence of a new economic power in Asia.

Confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge current account deficit. The US has had an adverse balance of payments for the past 22 years, which it has been able to finance by attracting investment funds from the rest of the world.
........................
Where will it end? The simple answer is that no one knows. The scale of the imbalance between the US and the rest of the world is huge and the longer intervention prevents adjustments, the greater the dislocation will be when the inevitable correction occurs.

In the face of these uncertainties, some people are again buying gold as a store of value. They do not know what will happen but sense great dangers ahead.
..................
The rising price of gold reflects increasing concerns about the future of the existing economic order.
*****************
Misetich

Perhaps it would be better stated as 'the future of the coming economic disorder"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
MK
(06/02/2004; 08:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121726)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.htmlUpdated.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/02/2004; 08:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121727)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
misetich
(06/02/2004; 08:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 121728)
Either Betting With The House, Or Against It
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmSnip:

Basically it's your choice, especially as it applies to the economy and financial markets ahead
.....................
But what was very striking in the Employment Cost Index report that accompanied the release of 1Q GDP was that the year over year change in wages and salaries during 1Q rose just 2.5%, the lowest rate of annual change on record.
...........................
Wage and salary growth has been falling relative to GDP. Payroll growth has been anemic at best on a rate of change basis. Where has the fuel for household consumption strength come from? And, more importantly, is this source of fuel sustainable?
.......................
History is whispering to us that the current low in personal tax rates is unsustainable, at least based on the experience of the last 44 years
......................
And unquestionably, the largest driver of total household debt expansion has been real estate related mortgage debt. As of year end 1999, household mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP stood a little over 47%. As of year end 2003, the number is now just shy of 62%. $2.3 trillion in new mortgage debt is now on the household books, an increase of 51% in four years.
.........................
Despite tax cuts and rebates of the last few years, households have not saved a nickel of this household liquidity windfall. Neither have they paid down any form of household debt. At the same time, household liability acceleration has continued uninterrupted
....................
And the household behavior you see graphically described above has translated into a household net worth position relative to total household assets that stands very near a half century low at least
......................
Simple question. Then just why does household net worth relative to these highly inflated household assets rest near a half century low given the extraordinary gains in asset prices? Simple answer. Because household liability expansion has been even more extraordinary. Simple enough?
....................
The Fed has stacked the odds in favor of the house in absolutely historic fashion over the last three to four years. Foreign central banks have been completely complicit in this exercise. But are these folks running Either Betting With The House, Or Against It...out of complimentary chips, or have they palmed yet another ace to be played if needed? In Vegas or Macau, it is rare to ever see the house bust. Unfortunately in the real world, this is the exact and consistent history of those living under fiat monetary systems.
****************
Misetich

Thanks to the fine people at contraryinvestor for a superb analysis

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Gandalf the White
(06/02/2004; 09:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 121729)
TODAY's US$ chart !!!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Looks as if the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is having a "challenging" day today !
"Push it back up -- PUSH PUSH PUSH"
<;-)
canamami
(06/02/2004; 10:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121730)
A CB dumping again?
This is sick. Why don't the rotten SOB's just mint a whole slew of premium priced gold coins in the national currency, with their gold reserves? That way, they could inflate without destroying a whole class of gold investors, or the gold industry. These bozos richly deserve every misfortune which befalls them in life.
Gondolin
(06/02/2004; 10:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121731)
Red day across the markets
Not just a bad day for Goldbugs, looking at INO there is a sea of red across all asset classes, stocks, bonds, oil, CRB, US dollar. Man the pumps, there aren't very many lifeboats...
misetich
(06/02/2004; 10:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121732)
Debt Bubble Stretches to Breaking Point
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsccom/funds/jubak/10163016.htmlSnip:

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told the Credit Union National Association in a February speech that rising mortgage debt, up to $6.8 trillion at the end of 2003, wasn't a problem because lower interest rates had reduced the amount that consumers had to pay each month to service those mortgages. Greenspan didn't say what would happen to both borrowers and lenders when higher interest rates raised the monthly payments on those mortgages. I think we'll find out when the shortest of those adjustable-rate mortgages start to adjust in about a year.
................
The impulse is to keep inflating the bubble. That's why they finally pop. Consumers stretched by mortgages, home equity loans and credit card debt don't want to admit that the low-interest-rate cycle is over
*************
Misetich

Consumer spending is slowing down as confirmed by soft retail sales numbers of the last 3 weeks.

Yet price inflation is roaring ahead. A depreciating US $ compounds the imported inflation problem

Higher IR's are not the solution as combined with higher energy prices would bring growth to a standstill immediately

The taxation card has been played resulting in ballooning budget deficits

Accomodating price inflation appears to be the solution.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
TownCrier
(06/02/2004; 12:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 121733)
Gold demand undaunted by higher prices
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/326716.htmHEADLINE: Gold defies the sceptics

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --The World Gold Council, in conjunction with market researcher GFMS, said today that jewellery purchases and gold retail investments accounted for a 12.2 percent gain in gold demand in the first three months of this year, compared to the same period last year.

On value terms, there was a 30 percent increase in the dollar value of gold demand, over the first quarter in 2003.

James Burton, WGC chief executive, says the higher demand is surprising considering the 55 percent increase in the dollar gold price over the last year...

Asia, China, India and Vietnam all showed steady jewellery demand growth of 6 percent, 21 percent and 36 percent respectively....

Consumers in Turkey ... purchased 38 percent more gold in the quarter, compared to last year...

James Steel, director of commodities at financial services firm Refco, says an interesting point is the increase in demand from the Middle East and how high oil prices could already be feeding through to gold prices.

"The increase implies that the higher oil price is beginning to feed through," he says.

Steel maintains his $450/oz gold price prediction by the end of the year, mainly on the premise that the dollar is set to weaken.

This, according to Steel is because indications are that the US current account is getting bigger and foreign investors have been pulling out of US markets.

"I'm surprised we aren't sitting at $420 right now," says Steel.

-----(from url)-----

Grab ahold at the day's nice price and hang on to your tangible asset for what should be an amazing ride.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/02/2004; 12:39:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121734)
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melda laure
(06/02/2004; 13:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121735)
Ned, crimex, diesel, horses, llamas and women.
Belgian, your 121713 was excellent! And yet, Sir slingshot #121710 has reminded me of a paradox. Precisely the paradox that Ned (#121718) has illustrated.

The price of energy HAS gone down during this age. But the price of energy in terms of WHAT?. A century of inflation and a century of gold manipulation and soon you find nobody remembers what is really going on.

I will muse on this further and reply later.
Federal_Reserves
(06/02/2004; 14:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121736)
FUELTOPIA
Yesterday, as crude skyrocketed up $2.50, the stock analyst salesman claimed "don't worry about oil prices" they''ll have a limited effect on our service type economy, besides everyone is hedged, so it we have a limited impact on profit. Buy stocks today!

Today, as crude tanked a similar amount, "wow - lower oil prices", what a huge boon for our oil based economy! Buy stocks today!!

LOL!
CoBra(too)
(06/02/2004; 14:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121737)
Irrational Exuberance ....
To quote the FED chairman back in 1996; The Dow was trading at 6.000 and the NASD - oh, hell, who cares about it nowaday!

Well, we seem to back to these heady days of irrational exuberance. The only difference is that irrationality and exuberance was bolstered by the same FED guy, who was warning about it.

Meantime the money aggregates as in all M's have seen explosive growth - without, as long as you still believe the Chairman, unleashing CPI, PPI, which are still moderate according to the venerable Al G.

Gee, I would have thought that the consequences follow the causes. Not so, as apparently, the BLS and other veritable statistical govt. sponsered entities are either re-programming their computers and/or all of us.

They also may be happy to shed some of their former GSE obligations, id est Fannie, Freddie and consorts. Though, sure as hell they won't shed some light on their hedonic accounting of anything, which might effect the US Dollar Reserve supremacy, or hegemony.

The problem is prolonged by the same irrationality. The exuberance is passed on to unsuspecting public; A public, which in the end will have to pay the price of overindulgence of debt! The real perpetrators, including the government will again get away by monetizing their default! ... and it won't matter if by de- or inflation!

That's the rationality behind irrationality ... sorry to say - and even if they (already)did monetize gold - paper gold, that is - they can't ever hope to monetize your physical stash. ... cb2



TownCrier
(06/02/2004; 15:05:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121738)
Daily market rap, plus 24-hr econ headlines
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlexcerpts:

Gold rose in London as gains for the euro against the dollar, concerns about terrorism and higher oil prices increased the metal's appeal as an alternative investment and a hedge against inflation. Last year the euro gained 20 percent, boosting gold by the same amount as investors turned to the dollar-denominated metal as an alterative to U.S. assets.

COMEX gold fell on Wednesday amid disappointment about Tuesday's failure to break above $400 ... August gold futures settled $3 lower at $392.50 an ounce, just off the session low of $391 ... pressured by fund selling and the tripping of sell stops, sources said.

More significant losses were seen in Jly silver as that contract fell 21.7 cents...

"Both markets opened higher, didn't really show much commitment on the upside and as the markets worked lower they went through some levels where sell stops were activated," said Dave Rinehimer, futures research director at Citigroup Global Markets.

Early dollar weakness was supportive for the gold market and helped prices to a firmer open. The greenback rose during the session, however, and made up some ground against the euro, which inspired gold and silver selling and the markets fell...

News that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering raising its crude production ceiling of 23.5 million barrels a day by up to 2.5 million barrels a day, or perhaps suspending quotas for a period to allow members to pump at will, may have pressured the gold market, sources said...

Rinehimer said the newsmay have been "somewhat negative" for gold - via sharply lower crude oil futures and a recovery in the dollar - but he believed that the downturn in gold was more a function of price action and technicals [August gold had already risen by $20]...

Analyst said funds have room to go long again after liquidating much of the record position built up in the bull run to a 15-year high on April 1 at $433. The shakeout pushed the August contract down to a seven-month low at $372.50 on May 10. "Having bounced smartly off the bottom, gold may need some time to consolidate its gains before resuming the uptrend, but we think this will only ultimately help to confirm the change in the intermediate-term trend back to the upside," wrote analyst Timothy Evans at IFR/Pegasus.

According to a report by the World Gold Council, consumer demand for gold, including jewelry and retail investment, rose 12 percent to 681 tonnes in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier, even though prices for the precious metal were hitting 15-year highs...

------(see url for access to full news)--------
TownCrier
(06/02/2004; 15:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121739)
Another official sign? A step closer to giving up the fight for shackled dollar+gold control and accepting the free-gold inevitability?
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js1706.htmTREASURY DEPT PRESS RELEASE: US Treasury Launches New Islamic Finance Scholar-in-Residence Program

June 2 -- The U.S. Treasury today announced the appointment of Dr. Mahmoud El-Gamal to serve as the first Islamic Finance Scholar-in-Residence.� Dr. El-Gamal will serve as a principal advisor on Islamic Finance to senior Treasury officials and he will liaise with international organizations that are seeking to create standards for and monitor Islamic finance.

He will interact with various U.S. government agencies to provide an overview of the recent developments on formulating new and harmonizing current international regulatory standards, and have an opportunity to conduct workshops on Islamic finance, including overview of the industry, prudent supervision/regulation, accounting standards, governance practices, and debt management.

John Taylor, Under Secretary for International Affairs, said, "We are delighted that Dr. El-Gamal is joining us as the first Scholar-In-Residence on Islamic Finance. With the recent growth of the Islamic finance industry, deeper understanding of Islamic finance is priority for this Administration."...

The purpose of the Islamic Finance Scholar-in-Residence program is to promote broader awareness of Islamic finance practices internationally and domestically for U.S. government policymakers, regulators, and the public at large. While mainly practiced in the Middle East and Asia, the Islamic finance industry is growing in Europe and in North America.�

Dr. El-Gamal � with his extensive background in Islamic finance � will play a critical role in advancing the importance of promoting good practices in risk management and transparency in this area.

Dr. El-Gamal is the Chaired Professor of Islamic Economics, Finance and Management and Professor of Statistics and Economics at Rice University in Houston, Texas. He previously held teaching positions at the University of Wisconsin, California Institute of Technology, and the University of Rochester, in addition to working as an economist at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. El-Gamal received a B.A. in Economics and Computer Science and an M.A. in Economics from the American University of Cairo, an M.S. in Statistics from Stanford University, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University.

-----(from url)----

Now THAT's a r�sum�! Color me green.

Seems to me that the tenets of free-gold (as I grasp it in toto) is already, quite naturally, Shariah compliant and property-friendly.

R.
Goldendome
(06/02/2004; 16:24:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121740)
Practicing the Preached !!
G-dome took in a couple more small orphaned coins again yesterday. One, a 20 franc Belgian Leopold; the other a Dutch 10 Gulden (not the Willemina but the Old Bearded King from 1875). Very nice little coins. So--while some talk gold; Gdome continues to buy...very slowly, but steadily.
Boilermaker
(06/02/2004; 17:12:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121741)
POO Strategy Scenario
Crude oil has everyone's attention and is at the forefront of business news. The oil market is moving other markets. High oil prices= bad news for stocks and bonds, good news for gold. OPEC's members are the central bankers of oil. Just like the Western central banks are the suppliers of gold needed to manage the POG. Most of the OPEC OCB's (oil central banks) have put their full production on the market and have no more for "market management" or have no interest in lower prices or for helping the US. The Saudi's have some spare capacity according to them and the UAE says it has 400K bbls/day ready to sell. The Saudi oil is not refinery friendly and may not be compatible with existing refinery capacity.

This recent jawboning by SA and UAE may be orchestrated by the US as the price for protection of their ruling families. The current regime in SA is not without enemies as we have seen for years. I don't know about UAE but suspect their regime has enemies. The US needs these OCB's to step up and supply more oil, in fact or in phantom.

We see oil moving 6% up on Tuesday and 6% down on Wednesday. Both big moves came during COMEX trading hours. Just like for gold, the big market moves are a paper trading game with news being managed for its maximum impact.

The oil market is less manageable than the gold market simply because there is only a few month's supply of oil above ground and the consumption is not so elastic in the short term. If the heavy crude from SA cannot be refined then what will happen? Probably we'll see bigger differentials in hi/lo quality crudes but no overall decrease in prices.
Black Blade
(06/02/2004; 17:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121742)
Oil, Precious Metals and the Middle East

From Randy's (Townie) previous post": "News that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering raising its crude production ceiling of 23.5 million barrels a day by up to 2.5 million barrels a day, or perhaps suspending quotas for a period to allow members to pump at will, may have pressured the gold market, sources said...

Not going to happen! Unfortunately the Saudi and most other OPEC member's reserves are "state secrets" though those of us in the know and from some "loose tongues" have revealed that an increase of 2.5 million-bbl/day increase in oil from OPEC is simply impossible. They would love to be able to increase production that much but it won't happen. At most they will get 800,000 bb/day increase on a (very) temporary basis (and not from Saudi either. This had been confirmed by US reps who have talked to their Saudi counterparts in the past. Recently British Petroleum has downgraded their reserve base several times so far this year as has Shell and in the NatGas sector El Paso did the same. For example, BP has tried as hard as they might to restim old oil wells, repressurize others, and explore for other sites in Oman. It has been a big � very big bust as decline rates have accelerated dramatically.

So today while bringing a NatGas well for a major US producer I have to admit that I was somewhat amused to hear the Saudi Oil and Mineral minister make some outrageous claims. Even if we do find another 800,000 bbl/day from OPEC production we will have to fight "tooth and nail" against China and India for the increase since some long term deals have fallen through (especially for China). China must increase their production and imports by nearly 50% by next year and domestic production is not cutting it. There are talks of severe power outages in several major Chinese cities this year and next due to lower petroleum production and stagnant coal production (look out Wal-Mart).

The word is that the US government is considering what to do should the Saudi Royals fall from grace and a revolution occurs and in light of over 30 oil workers (mostly foreign) have been killed over the weekend by Islamic terrorists. Now I have several Saudi friends but the state religion is the Sunni Wahabbi sect leaders who receive payoffs from the Royals to "keep the peace". It looks very much like the days of the Royals are numbered. Wahhabis believe in killing all who do not believe as they do � including other Muslims. They also believe that those who are nonbelievers are game for slavery (especially women � western US female have already had that threat made recently by Wahabbi clerics). God forbid anything happens to those poor Third World women working in Saudi should the Royals flee and the Wahabbi police take control (yes- they even have religion police). Remember that Osama Bin laden is a Wahabbi and takes it quite seriously - he and other Wahabbis want $144 bbl for oil. Most of my Saudi friends are officially Wahhabis� but as they say it, few Saudis are true believers but most do hate the Royal family which explains why the huge Swiss and Liechtenstein bank accounts and Gold in safe deposit boxes and plans to flee Saudi at a moments notice.

About 20 years ago the per capita income in Saudi was $37,000 and today it is somewhere between $14,000 to $17,000 depending on the POO and PONG. Petroleum accounts for over 40$ of Saudi GDP � more if you count the other products that require oil and NatGas for feedstock and the desalination of sea water from the Persian (or Saudi) Gulf. These people rarely work but hire foreigners to do the work for them. Now here's the big problem, the Saudis want higher oil prices to make up for the decline in per capita income. So the talk of increased production is just that � talk. Beside increased production is meaningless for the US and much of Euroland. The bottlenecks in production and the increasing demand structure among the industrializing Third World will continue to pressure prices for years to come.

In the US we can produce more oil and much more NatGas, but the real emphasis will have to be on "clean coal technology" (and liquefied derivatives) and nuclear power freeing up oil-fired power plants for electricity for petroleum based products (remember that gasoline and diesel are only "by-products"). The major bottlenecks are that there are now only 146 operating US refineries (less than 10% of that in 1876 � the year that the last US refinery was built) and at least a dozen more want to close down immediately because they cannot meet local, state, and Federal EPA environmental standards without tearing down and rebuilding new refineries to manufacture these dozens of ever-changing "boutique fuels". There are several areas that could relieve some of the domestic oil and NatGas production picture but most prime targets are simply off limits (mostly Federal Lands � mainly BLM lands located in desert and scrub brush). The Powder River Basin has reserves of over 138 Trillion Mfcu (a couple of decades worth of use for electricity generation at reasonable prices) and more as the price increases as resources become reserves. This does not even take into account areas of the southwest, ANWR, and some areas of the Gulf of Mexico (including ultra-deep water with high "lifting costs).

Wall Streeters are fun to watch because these 20 somethings who manage funds and analyze the petroleum markets know very little if anything about these markets. Many are simply talking their book and it is based on more "hope and hype". Those of us in the business laugh at the ineptness that is so prevalent on Wall Street and in Washington DC (especially among the political elitists - interesting that they become "instant experts" because they win their respective "popularity contests" we call elections � but then after all American education is dead last among the industrialized world so we get exactly the leaders and political candidates that we deserve). I rarely watch the alphabet channels on TV when I get a chance because the intelligence level is set at the sixth grade level (same as the reading level of the typical newspaper). I trend toward the History, Discovery, A&E, and TLC channels if at all (although I do find "Surviving Nugent" on VHI entertaining at times while "channel surfing", and the infomercial CNBC channel is some of the best comedy on TV. But I do seriously digress now.

I have been asked in email by some about the "Wealth Pyramid" I refer to from time to time. Maybe when I get a chance I will go into detail. First off start with a solid foundation at the base of your "pyramid" such as precious metals because it is easy to store and hide (don't � repeat � do not advertise even to friends or others including some family members). Maybe a map and instructions in a sealed envelope to a very trusted relative should the unfortunate demise of oneself occur or some emergency arise where you are unable to communicate. I floor safe under a carpet is among some of the best-hidden storage places, but more on that some other time. The base of the pyramid would also include a storage program of nonperishable foods and basic necessities � got have the basics to live as well of course. Next I would probably hold shares (units) in trusts and limited partnerships in staples in the level just above the foundation level. If I am a unit (share) holder, that is an owner of a company I expect to be paid and not just hold paper on the dubious hopes that the company will "grow". That requires a bit of research and the company's debt (if any), the ability to grow (not always legal in the US but then the US dollar is going to get trashed anyway so who cares � mine are essentially in Canada where trusts are allowed to grow and acquire and in the US where there are several years worth of assets that will only grow in value. Enough of that for now. As most of you know I always say: "Get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash some emergency cash (can include PMs now as they are so liquid and will gain as inflation looms), accumulate gold and silver (maybe platinum but at these current prices? � Hmmm) as portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable foods and basic necessities". Sorry, but it's simple common sense. What the hell, we insure everything else � life, health, auto, home, etc. so why not your wealth as well.

I did sell off my Meridian Gold (MDG) although they are debt free, growing reserves, and unhedged. Why you might ask? Simple � ever since the large Esquiel project in Argentina has been on hold due to the enviro campaign by Green Peace has scared the locals off the stock took a hit and will take a long time. Still there are also other shares just as good that also payout a dividend. What Green Peace has done is frightened an economically depressed uneducated people in the Mendoza district with lies about the open pit mining operation affecting drinking water. What Green Peace involvement is for is beyond me as this region is on the eastern flank of the Andes and there are no whales or seals living in the Andes. Nevertheless, the word "cyanide" and supposed "destruction" of local crops did destroy the hopes of many unemployed Argentines in need of work and the weak "preg solution" would have been retained and recycled for production and is no where near the drinking or irrigation water basin drainage. The company has an excellent rep (formerly was FMC Gold). Besides, given the direction of inflation I would put the cash into physical at this point anyway � especially given the inevitable rocket ride of "real" inflation coming down the road. Buy the physical on the dips and those of limited means can buy on a "dollar cost averaging" schedule as recommended by brokers and analysts for stocks that may or may not have performed. But at the minimum get in now and at least get started. Get insured first before playing around with the paper notes (and even then study, study, study). I mean, jeezuz, silver and gold are so under priced now and China is recommending that the 5% VAT be eliminated. As retail outlets expand in China and the Peoples Central Bank exchanges US debt for Gold and other currencies it's only a matter of time.

Once I pay off some newly acquired capital expenses for my business I will be back for more physical PMs (hopefully before the launch). Too bad I missed out on the Brazilian Gold this time but fist things first (get outta debt). Right now it's precious metals (mainly physical) and energy and energy related (high yielding well situated trusts and limited partnerships with growth prospects). Stay away from the "integrated oils though" as they may gain at the exploration and production level � they tend lose or make a lot less at the retail level). The only integrated Gold producer I know is Harmony Gold as the mine it, refine it (using the "Minotaur Method" yielding 24K 10 tael bars, make jewelry, and have their own retail outlets). Unfortunately those of us in the US must pay prohibitive import duties. Only if they had the ability to sell worldwide like the state sponsored Krugerand (22K mixed with copper giving the "bronze" look and therefore the lower premium).

In short get don't get caught up in the "all is well" BS on lower energy prices (at least for the long term � OPEC just cannot do it - impossible), and get easily storable physical Gold and Silver (along with nonperishable necessities) before all else. Call the Castle Guards and Staff here at USAGOLD � talk to George Cooper (Marketalk on silver and IRAs, Mike Kosares on the fundamentals of the precious metals and latest on demand, Jonathon Kosares and Marie (and the other "guards") on the smaller purchases (and a very good way to start the "dollar cost averaging" method � you will be amazed to watch you stash grow over time � make a game of it as I am partial to 24K Maple Leafs, and of course 24K Roos as well as the Aussie 24K Chinese year issues � the Year of the Dragon" is my favorite but they are all works of art, I generally go for the average Silver Rounds like the "Prospector" and 10oz JM bars myself, an occasional Platinum maple Leaf, and or course historical numismatics like uncirculated graded PGCS Gold Liberties and Morgan Silver dollars � mostly Carson City). Hey, it's painless to talk on the phone or if you are that shy the email them, but they are a lot of fun to talk to � no pressure like talking to a "used car salesman" aka "stock broker". Don't be shy and have some fun! The party has just begun and I would not be surprised to see $600 oz. Gold without lots of strain and pain on Alan Greenspan's wrinkled face. Cheers and all the best!

BTW, 15 minutes to go today but the "small order desk" is always open 24/7!

- Black Blade

Well off to the gym!!! See ya all later!

Dollar Bill
(06/02/2004; 19:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 121743)
*>*
Thanks Black Blade
otish mountain
(06/02/2004; 21:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121745)
Random thoughts

With oil prices now firmly established in the $40 range main stream consensus attributes these "high" prices to terrorist threats, a longer than expected campaign in Iraq, and China's increased demand.

The anaesthetized public (love that Belgian) believes oil prices will come down to more acceptable levels in the future as our media has told us, once Iraq is solved and increases in oil production are achieved.

The failure in mass thought is the concept that there is a devaluation in the purchasing power of the currency used to buy that barrel of oil.

Antidotal but relevant was an experience I had in another life in the antique trade. Upon visiting a dealer of period furnishings I commented to him the high price he was asking for a particular chest of drawers. His words to me and I shall never forget them were...." It's not that the piece isn't worth the money, it's the money that does have any worth"

Now to continue with this thread of thought, Dollar Bill posted about a month ago his amazement of the $105 million paid for a Piccasso painting. Truly an astounding amount of money. Obviously an individual of high net worth finding a safe haven for wealth from a currency of no worth.

Granted not as fungible as gold but still a store of wealth.
otish mountain
(06/02/2004; 21:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 121746)
error in last post
"It's not that the piece isn't worth the money, it's the money that doesn't have any worth"

Why is it that mistakes always show up clearer after posting?
Black Blade
(06/02/2004; 23:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121747)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman

Snippits:

I'll begin with a headline from Bloomberg pointing to a subtle message that energy prices are under control, "New York Natural Gas Slides, Tracking Crude Oil Prices Lower." The headline sounds promising for lower energy costs ahead but look at the chart and make up your own mind. Everyone thought the big price spike back in 2000 was a big deal, but prices above $5.00 are commonplace today. Natural gas prices have tripled since the double bottom in 2002 at $2.00 per million BTU's. If we get a hot summer, high use of air conditioners and a weaker dollar should resolve the triangle to the upside to test the resistance just above $8.00. The Energy Department is scheduled to release inventory data tomorrow so let's watch to see if they can talk the price lower over the near term.

On a similar note, OPEC is meeting tomorrow and it is widely expected they will lift all quotas for member countries. It is a forgone conclusion they are already pumping oil as fast as they can except for Saudi Arabia. As Jim Sinclair has said, the meeting tomorrow is not about OPEC, but more about the future direction of the Saudis. They have had at least four high profile terror attacks in the last month or so sending a strong message to the royal family. The killings targeted at their oil industry suggest they better not go along with U.S. desires for increased production. The Saudi decision will dictate the fate of the royal family and either their alliance with the U.S. or fellow Arab states. The fundamentalists will be watching. My guess is they pump more oil but pretend they aren't going to.

and this:

To highlight my stance of Federal Reserve posturing and the booming inflation facing us, I'll extract a few quotes from an article that appeared May 28th on Mineweb.com by Tim Wood called, "Top Trader Sees Accelerating Gold Boom." "Victor Sperandeo is one of the world's most successful traders, making money in years gone by for the likes of George Soros and Lee Cooperman. Now he plans to make a good deal more money for himself and his clients playing gold�Sperandeo noted that April was one of the most unusual months on record with every security losing value apart from the dollar and Treasury Bills. He says the market was head-faked by Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, talking about a bias toward higher interest rates�He believes the Fed is creating a purposeful inflation because that is the only way to resolve several economic and social conundrums. Until the Fed stops pumping up the money supply (+14% last quarter) the threatened rate increases are camouflage." He goes on to say, "We will start to see accelerating inflation that makes the 1970s seem easy�the only way out of this in the short-run is to print money" and "Gold is about to explode because of inflation." On a final note he also says that the dollar may not fall as mush as many expect because other countries will inflate their currencies in sympathy with the dollar. His recent book is entitled, "Cra$hmaker: A Federal Affaire."


Black Blade: We are running faster and faster on the NatGas treadmill and more oil is meaningless (afterall - what will we do with it? All 146 refineries are running flat out as boutique summer blends had to be processed starting yesterday June 1st). God help us if one refinery goes down, we have a hot summer, a pipeline breaks down, etc. The smart money and high net-worth individuals have been going to Gold and Silver for months now steered there by private money managers (not the "used car salesmen" and usual "carnival barkers" on CNBC). "Interesting Times" indeed!
Black Blade
(06/02/2004; 23:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121748)
OPEC Members Should Pump at Will, Qatar Minister Says
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=home&sid=aljOT0Aq2__M
Snippit:

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC should pump oil at will in the next few months, Qatar's energy minister said as the group's president called for efforts to cause a ``significant'' drop in record oil prices.

The Qatari, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, said OPEC is near a consensus to boost its output quota by 2.5 million barrels a day, or 11 percent, a plan also backed by Kuwait. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, will ensure markets have enough supply, said the nation's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi.

``Everybody should produce what they want over the next few months,'' al-Attiyah said in an interview in Beirut, where OPEC meets tomorrow. ``We do not want to see any shortage of supply at all, and we want to avoid shocks.''


Black Blade: Interesting ststement as Qatar oesn't have oil (well not much), they are the Mile East's largest LNG exporter. BTW, the Kirkuk oil region just got hit with a couple of attacks tonight. So far no real details - two pipelines from there - one to Ceyhan, Turkey and one to Baghdad of all places. Even then it's highly contaminated oil.
slingshot
(06/03/2004; 00:01:43 MDT - Msg ID: 121749)
The Prophecy of Oro
Once a month the council gathered within castle chamber. It was good to sit at "The Mighty Oaken Table of Yore" and exchange stories with friends.Hunting adventures and tales of strange sightings in the Althean Woods. A joke or two to bring laughter to the hall.Boaz along with Jachin and Bonfir sat across from Sir M.K and Sir Black Blade. The three of them being unusually quiet caught the attention of Sir M.K.
"What news do you three bring before us" asked Sir M.K.
The smiles on their faces were broad and Boaz withdrew a sizeable bag from under the table and softly dumped the contents for all to see. Nugget after nugget of gold rolled on to the table and the words filled the room.
Even Stephen the Great, from the Valley of Clouds had never seen a sight as this before.
Bonfir called the chamber to order and then spoke when all was quiet."We bring this Golden Ore to forge a symbol of our unity and with this metal,to last forever"
"Do you have an idea for such a symbol?" asked Sir M.K.
"We do. A sword with a blade wide, engraved with the principles of which we believe. Its hilt with Hawk and Dove embossed, for war or peace and the handle butt a snakes head, to remind us to guard against treachery!" answered Bonfir.
Stephen the Great then spoke to the Table Round. " Let us make this symbol for all to see and then vote as to its acceptance.
One after another said "Aye" and Sir M.K. said "Then it is agreed".
Sir Black Blade could see everyone as they gave their voice of approval.
"Where is Gandalf?" he said to himself.
Slingshot--------------<>
Black Blade
(06/03/2004; 00:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 121750)
Consumer Confidence on Decline
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=3&u=/ap/20040602/ap_on_bi_ge/consumer_confidence&sid=95609868
Snippit:

NEW YORK - Rising gasoline prices continued to weigh on overall consumer confidence in the United States last week, according to an ABC News/Money Magazine poll. The poll's consumer comfort index fell two points to negative 18 in the week ended May 30 from negative 16 a week earlier, according to the report released Tuesday. According to the survey, positive views of the buying climate dipped to a 14-month low last week, with 34 percent of respondents saying it was a good time to buy things, down from 35 percent a week earlier. That's the lowest level since March 2003, shortly after the start of the Iraq.

Black Blade: This summer could be interesting. What's that old saying about the equities markets? "Sell in May and go away". Hmmm...
Great Albino Bat
(06/03/2004; 06:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121751)
Read: another CIA agent inserted
TOWN CRIER told us yesterday:

"June 2 -- The U.S. Treasury today announced the appointment of Dr. Mahmoud El-Gamal to serve as the first Islamic Finance Scholar-in-Residence. Dr. El-Gamal will serve as a principal advisor on Islamic Finance to senior Treasury officials and he will liaise with international organizations that are seeking to create standards for and monitor Islamic finance."


"International organizations that are seeking to CREATE STANDARDS FOR AND MONTIOR Islamic finance." This means, really, how to control Islamic finance - which has a basic religious affinity for gold and silver - and twist that finance it in a convenient direction, away from metal and non-interest lending, to paper and standard usury. Above all, eliminate the element of anonymity and reliance on honor for trust in the Islamic bankers. The powers that be want to be the only ones to have secrets; not the people they rule.

*******

From what one hears from OPEC characters, these types are trembling in their boots and falling over themselves to promise all, all and more that is demanded. Rather pitiful.

Fooling with oil supplies is like clambering about amongst 1,000,000 volt power lines. Touchy! Ome false move and you are a bit of ash floating down from the tower.

And fooling with money is little less dangerous! That's another 1,000,000 volt powerline.

That's why we the lumpen are not supposed to even THINK about owning gold. "Think about anything, but that! Think about Michael Jackson (ugh!) that's what we want you to think about. Goldbugs are dumb - you are not dumb, are you?"

The GAB

Toolie
(06/03/2004; 06:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121752)
high-tech trade deficit
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0602/p01s02-usec.htmlA forward-looking article on the implications of the trade deficit. Worth a trip to the link.

Snip: For the first time on record, the United States has a deficit in high-tech trade, prompting concern about American competitiveness in key job-producing industries from biotechnology to aerospace.
����������
Trade gaps have opened in scientific instruments and in specialized industrial machinery. In commercial airplanes, among the most sophisticated of machines, America remains an export powerhouse, but Europe's Airbus consortium as of this year is selling more planes than Boeing.
���������..
"People are going to be surprised how rapidly this develops," says Charles McMillion, a Washington consulting economist.
���������
Ronil Hira, a public-policy professor at Rochester Institute of Technology, worries that as both tech jobs and industry move abroad, the US will lose the "spillover effect" that produces new tech ideas that result in new firms, new tech businesses.
"You are going to get the next generation of entrepreneurs abroad," he warns.
���������.
Various business associations have recently published reports that defend globalization but urge steps to retain America's competitive advantage in technology. Most call for tax cuts, subsidies, and other changes to reduce the costs of American firms competing in the international marketplace and encourage technical and business innovation in the US. Many call for the education of more scientists and engineers.
"The low cost, high-skill combination abroad is seriously undermining US manufacturing," Richard Dauch, chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers said last month. "We vitally need our elected officials to act on public policy in constructive and meaningful ways."
���������.
America's high-tech deficit, he predicts, will be concentrated in China, which "has been putting all the pieces together" in recent years. The US, meanwhile, has seen its position erode from a record $60 billion trade surplus in technology, reached in 1997. A surplus in technology, experts say, could be vital to moving America's huge overall trade deficit closer to balance

Toolie: Our congressional "leaders" have called for more education as a response to the lob losses in high-skill employment. But with the rapid advancement in technology, industry's desires for an educated workforce lacks focus�the training that they disparately need today, may well be worthless in a few years. Meanwhile, China continues to graduate one million engineers a year. Americans have been voting with their feet. Turning away from the expense and time demands of life-long education in technology. In spite of the incentives offered by government for technical education, the would-be students see stagnant and falling wages and a restless life on the treadmill.

One of the key prizes from our "free trade" agreements is getting the other nation to recognize our patent laws. This is a strategy that we will soon regret, as much of the innovation that propels world growth will be coming out of Asia. America will have little choice but to pay for it. Add technology to the list of gotta have imports.

Asian factories, Asian know-how is wealth, as real, as tangible as gold. As long as there remains no fulcrum in the international floating currency regime, there is incentive to engage in merchantilistic trade practices. The true wealth of Asia, is not to be found in dollar denominated reserves in a central bank, it is in the know-how and production of goods. They view factories and know-how as a savings account of sorts, to be redeemed when the dollar fails to feed the engine of growth�. The dollar is buying a lot less oil these days.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/03/2004; 07:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 121753)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.
OvS
(06/03/2004; 07:10:40 MDT - Msg ID: 121754)
High Tech Trade Deficit
The great American Free Give Away.
Thousands of Chinese engineers are
educated every year at MIT, Stanford
and other elite American Universities.
Some remain but more and more return
to China to compete with America for
supremacy in technology.

Now, what part of the US leadership
could possibly encourage such a state
of affairs?

Just like in ancient Rome. It was the
the internal division that brought Rome
to its knees, giving the foreign "bar-
barians" a chance to take over.
Golden Era
(06/03/2004; 09:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121755)
Use yen as East Asia's trading currency
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/6/3/nation/8124886&sec=nationSnip: Dr Mahathir suggested that the Japanese currency be used to replace the US dollar as the trading currency for East Asia and in return the region agreed on a trading currency backed by gold.

"East Asian countries need not have an East Asian currency for domestic use as the euro is in the European Union. To give it reference value against currencies of countries of East Asia, we can base the East Asia Trading Currency on gold."

Gold can fluctuate in value in any currency but the fluctuation would never be very wide," he said, adding that such a trading currency would be more stable than the US dollar, euro and even the yen.
Gandalf the White
(06/03/2004; 09:30:09 MDT - Msg ID: 121756)
TODAY's US$ chart action <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10After yesterday's ESF's PUMPING effort, today we have a BEAUTIFUL stairstep chart of Lower highs and LOWER LOWS !
Get ready for the next SIGNAL of:
DIVE, DIVE, DIVE !!!!
Get MORE Yellow !!!!
<;-)
J-Bullion
(06/03/2004; 09:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121757)
Daily smashdown.
It's nice to see the daily smashdown occur today at 11am right on schedule. I bet you could make a lot of money selling gold futures short at 10:55 every day, and covering at 11:30....knowing full well that gold will be attacked every day like clockwork (and the worse the economic news, the more they will smash the price down). Well hopefully, as time goes on more and more people will get disgusted with the antics of the futures and just buy the physical and hold it.
misetich
(06/03/2004; 12:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121758)
April factory orders weaker than expected
http://finance.myway.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?section=news&feed=bus&src=202≠ws_id=bus-n0332789&date=20040603Snip:

WASHINGTON - U.S. factory orders posted their biggest decline in a year as demand for a wide array of goods fell in April, the government said on Thursday in a weaker-than-expected report.

Factory orders fell 1.7 percent in April after a 5 percent gain a month earlier, the Commerce Department said. It was the biggest monthly decline since April 2003.
..................
It was the biggest slide in durable goods orders since September 2002
**********************
Misetich

The "good news" of the last few months is slowly turning negative as goverment stimuli disappears thus the "recovery" seen in Feb, Mar, & April is not sustainable

Retail sales are soft, as is consumer spending and consumer confidence.

Job creations ( genuine?) are more than offset by continued layoffs -

Input raw materials pricecs are still soaring - service industry inflation pressures are increasing

Money Supply

Snip from Richard Russell

"Money Supply (M-3) by crisis proportions, up another 46.8 billion this past week. What awful calamity do they see? Something is up. This is unprecedented, unheard-of pre-catastrophe M-3 expansion. M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis - $155 billion over the past 4 weeks, a $2.0 trillion annualized pace, a 22.2 percent "

End of snip

The significance of this mammoth increase HAS DONE VERY LITTLE for the stock market - similar moves in '98 and late '99 resulted in gigantic money moving into stocks - this time around "its different" - it merely stalled the expected downturn and resumption of the bear market

OPEC as forecasted by Blackblade was all smoke and mirrors -thus The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues...

All in all the US $ is under pressure as the economic is weakning and going to get worse

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Aristotle
(06/03/2004; 12:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 121759)
Striking perfect balance -- a lesson for the Gold beginners
Try this financial garment on for size.

My income comes in dollars. My savings is in Gold.

If the dollar is doing well, I have every reason to cheer. I can pay my bills with a smile, and enjoy strong purchasing power with every cent of my excess earnings.

As long as things are sailing along smoothly like that, why on earth should I get upset if the investment-minded price performance of Gold is just sorta sitting there, stinking like so much cheese? Hey, buddy!! It allows my pile of savings to grow all the bigger at the very same time that I'm enjoying the use of my strong dollar income!

If I were a silly man, I'd maybe be trying to save with those same strong dollars. But think about it... think about what would happen when things take a turn that's bad for the dollar, and it starts taking on water. I surely don't want my savings to be in the very same boat, sharing the fate of my sinking dollars.

In a well-engineered world your savings, Gold, would be wholly *entirely* TOTALLY outside *outside* OUTSIDE the currency system in which you're earning your income. That way, your life carries on nicely while you're currency performs up to reasonable expectations as for any man-made and man-operated system. Aaaaaannnnnnd.... on that fateful day when your good ship wrecks itself hitting a berg, you can sail safely away on your Gold savings lifeboat because it survives independent of that oceanic drama.

That's the basic case for a Gold savings plan to be used wherever you are, no matter what your national currency happens to be. The Asian contagion of seven years ago put the modern proof into that wisdom. But honestly, the sinking of that Asian junk was all small potatoes. It didn't change the horizon for Gold -- the Gold savings of those people simply, dutifully, did its lifeboat role according to plan in that little corner of the sea.

By contrast, can you imagine what would be the case if none other than the good ship King Dollar went down? Because it uniquely has widespread international use, its sinking will put EVERYbody in the water to some degree or another, and lifeboats will suddenly be valuable to EVERYbody at the same time.

At. The. Same. Time.

You know your classic rules of supply and demand. The true value of Gold in its proper economic role will suddenly be grasped by one and all, and the new unsinkable era of fully-valued FreeGold will enjoy its maiden voyage.

Use well your income, and choose your savings wisely.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
misetich
(06/03/2004; 13:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 121760)
CHINA NEWS
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-06/03/content_1506899.htmSnips:

He explained that the country's economy is growing fast, its economic returns continue to improve, the rural situation is comparatively good, and industrial growth remains relatively fast while the growth momentum of foreign trade is strong.

The income of the country's residents is growing at a relatively fast pace, and domestic consumption is growing in a stable but accelerating way, the premier said.

Facts have shown the macro-economic measures adopted by the central authorities to regulate the economy are timely, correct, and effective, said the premier.
****************
Misetich

China's intervention according to Chinese premier are working to slowdown overheated sectors -

Energy consumption keeps on roaring ahead -

Snip

BEIJING, June 3 (Xinhuanet) -- The electricity consumption in China amounted to 650.5 billion kwh in the first four months this year, up 16.1 percent year-on-year, according to the State Electric Power Regulatory Commission Thursday.

end of snip

In the months ahead, the picture will become clearer on how effective China's attempts to slowdown its red hot economy to a sustainable level is

In the meantime ....their consumption of raw materials and energy continues at high levels creating havoc for industrialized nations

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Federal_Reserves
(06/03/2004; 13:26:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121761)
Gold/Silver
Being more long term in view, I don't comment much on short term moves, but I would like to log in on this now.

We have seen a big decline in both metals from recent tops. Silver's decline was massive from that last near parabolic rise to over 8 down to 5.50. Gold hit a double top, and declined from 430's down to the 370's which now looks like a big support line. Both metals have had bounces from the recent lows, but these bounces are now getting weaker.

Why so weak now?

Both are weak because the expectations are that the bankers (China/US FED) are going to jack up short term rates and slow down growth to control the recent spike in inflation
they have observed.

THE FF have priced in a 100% chance of a 25bps hike, and a 50% chance of 50bps. Today, A.Rivlin,
FED voice, came out and said they would "probably" hike rates in June.

Tommorow we get the labor report, contained in that will be the jobs/wage growth variables, key
to interest rates, and the next move in gold. The FED is less concerned with the growth in jobs now, than in the wage component. If jobs/wages are hot, they'll probably go with the full 50bps.

Yet I have not a clue how these numbers get fudged. Will the fudgers post a bad number to keep them at bay another month?
Melting Pot
(06/03/2004; 14:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 121763)
Also from Richard Russell June 2, 2004
Got Gold?
Russell Comment -- The other most interesting item is whether we're going into inflation (which is what the Fed wants) or deflation (which is what the Fed doesn't want). I think the verdict is still out.

Russell Comment -- If gold and silver don't rise in the face of what the Fed is doing to the US money supply, then the forces of global deflation are sending us an unbelievably ominous message, and I'll be writing about this in future reports.

--Richard Russell, June 2, 2004
TownCrier
(06/03/2004; 15:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 121764)
Closing market rap, 24-hr headlines
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlexcerpts:

Gold edged up marginally in Europe on Thursday, with the market confining itself quietly to narrow ranges, ahead of key U.S. employment data on Friday that could give a definitive pointer on whether interest rates there will rise from a 46-year low later this month....

"Technically we now see minor support at $390 and stronger support at $388.75 and $386," Wolfgang Wrzesniok- Rossbach of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a daily report....

[In New York,] August gold ended down $3.60 at $388.90 an ounce.

COMEX gold tumbled Thursday on liquidation before Friday's key employment report and the unwinding of inflation hedges as oil prices skidded after OPEC said it will open up the petroleum spigot.

Energy markets initially thought OPEC's decision Thursday to boost its production quota by 2 million barrels per day in July, and another half a million barrels from August 1, was insufficient to alleviate tight oil supplies, lifting NYMEX oil to $40.85 a barrel, $1.60 below Wednesday's record price...


Robert Gottlieb, head of bullion trading at HSBC in New York, said only after the jobs report could the next $10-$15 move in gold be determined.

"With the geopolitical situation, firm euro, CTAs (commodity trading advisors) flatish, CFTC open interest and long positions rather low, it's easy to make the case for gold," Gottlieb said.

"However, major players being all on the sidelines presents us with a major illiquidity scenario and a market that moves $5 on quick, knee-jerk reactions," he said...

The market is on the whole expecting a broadly encouraging employment report Friday morning that would likely offer support to the U.S. dollar and thereby apply pressure to gold. Should the employment data fail to impress Wall Street, it is possible that the U.S. dollar comes under further pressure against its major rivals and offers support to gold.

In the meantime, however, the bias is toward the downside as many players remain sidelined and in a jittery mood ahead of Friday's data release, and while the price of oil continues to pull back from its recent historic highs.

...the head dealer at a large international investment bank said that with many large fund players sidelined in gold at the present time, the gold market is suffering from a lack of liquidity that might make it prone to a more pronounced decline Friday should the employment numbers encourage investors and the oil price shed more gains. In that event, he agreed that the $385 and $382 areas were downside targets...

[Take the sure bargain today, or else gamble on the possibility of getting a better one tomorrow -- weighing the risk of seeing prices climb higher instead.]

-----(see url for access to full news)-----

sample of headlines:

Dollar May Not Get Much Help from U.S. Jobs Report -- Reuters - Business

Dollar Trips on Data, Slips on Oil -- Yahoo! US - Stock Markets

China Asks US To Stop Treating It As Non-Market Economy -- Nasdaq - Global Markets

US Treasury's Snow welcomes OPEC quota increase -- Borsa Italiana - News

UK's Brown welcomes OPEC output rise, but demands higher production -- ample.com

ECB's Weber Sees Oil Prices Falling In Medium Term -- Nasdaq - Global Markets

Trichet: Oil Prices May Worsen Inflation -- 620ktar.com, Arizona - Business
Belgian
(06/03/2004; 16:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121765)
Exactly Aristotle....
You have been describing the correct attitude towards Gold.
Unfortunately, for most Gold-bugs, those small and big (Giant), wise, Gold accumulators, worldwide, are doing this discretely, silently and with an extreme low profilation.
It is only "gold-sales" that are (need to be) hyped !
Gold sellers are implicitely confirming (are labeled as such) that the dollar-Titanic is still sailing in a debtberg free ocean.

The dollar is still allowed to anchor its percepted strength (usefulness) to the Gold anchor. A lot of Gold for a very little (obscenely) amount of dollars . How convenient and ohhhh so simple...as a smashing argument against all dollar-doomers ! Today, as with many other days of increased noticable dollar-stress, we see how the POG anchor remains tightly chained to its old and tired dollar-numeraire.

The appaling dollar-inflation and the inevitable consequence of price-inflation MUST remain unseen...unevidenced by a non-floating but firmly contained goldprice. This is a Gold heaven only for those who reached full understanding of Gold's future. Unfortunately, the absolute majority of ordinarry folks are "purposely" deprived of the Golden privilege. Revolting !

Isn't it very remarkable, that today, we don't hear about "petro-dollars" as during the first oil crisis in the seventies !? There is a big difference in the (subtle) attitudes (inter-actions) of the oil-owners and consumers, these days. There is "something" fundamentally different, today ! The oil-reserve-holders seem to be much more "confident" than before, despite the enormous amounts of pressures that they are undergoing. Could it be that the transfer of 1 tonne a day of Swiss Gold (total of 1,300 tonnes), is a strongholding vitamin...!? Now, even bad boy Khadaffi, wishes to be oilprice/output supportive !? There will be no other invasion and occupation of any other (oilreserve) country anymore.

My intuition tells me that in the coming weeks, things will calm down a bit and renewed pressure will restart later on as to further unmask the dollar hyper-over-valuation. Adios petro-dollar.
TownCrier
(06/03/2004; 16:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 121766)
ECB monetary policy: rates remain unchanged, much discussion of the oil factor
http://www.ecb.int/key/04/is040603en.htmSome important excerpts of press conference by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet:

Let me now turn to today's monetary policy discussion.

In summary, we noted that the economic recovery has strengthened over recent months. At the same time, we have also witnessed stronger inflationary pressures over the short term. Nevertheless, we are still of the view that the medium-term outlook remains in line with price stability. Accordingly, we left the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The low level of interest rates continues to support the economic recovery. We will remain vigilant with regard to all developments which could affect the risks to price stability over the medium term....

...Moving on to the monetary analysis, we have seen increasing evidence of a normalisation of the portfolio behaviour of private investors. As a consequence, annual M3 growth has fallen quite significantly over recent quarters. Still, the low level of interest rates continues to fuel monetary growth and the amount of excess liquidity remains high in the euro area. In an economic upswing, the persistence of excess liquidity could lead to inflationary pressures over the medium term.

...Given the signs that the economic recovery will continue, it is particularly important that fiscal policies and structural reforms play their part in improving the economic fundamentals of the euro area....

Question:
Mr Trichet. In past weeks you have stressed that the ECB is keeping all its options open and has no bias. Is this still the message you want to get across?

Trichet:
I will certainly confirm that following the analysis that we conducted today we, in the Governing Council, consider that we have all our options open, that we have no bias and that we are vigilant.

Question:
...you did not say this time that the interest rates are appropriate, nor that they are in line with price stability. What are they then?

Trichet:
I have already said very clearly that we ***have all our options open***, that we have no bias, and that we are vigilant.

Question:
do you believe in the risk of a "stagflationary" scenario for the euro area if oil prices remain at such high levels for some months?

Trichet:
...it is a very important issue at the current juncture. If the present levels persist, the price of oil would have both a dampening influence on growth and an immediate upward effect on inflation. Both effects are highly unwelcome in the present circumstances. This is why we and a number of other institutions and authorities urge oil producers to be responsible so that the present episode would be transitory.

But it is certainly too early to assess whether we are witnessing a transitory episode � as we would wish � or whether we have to take into account a more persistent level of prices. Under the current circumstances, the responsibility of the ECB is to prevent second round effects which would make higher inflation a permanent feature, which would prevent us from ensuring price stability and which would hamper sustainable growth.

And there I insist: we have to prevent the second round effects. This is why we have to be vigilant. And it is also why we call on social partners to be responsible.

Question:
do you believe that the ECB could soon be faced with a sort of dilemma between cutting interest rates in order to boost economic growth or increasing the level of the interest rates in order to ensure price stability over the medium term?

Trichet:
on the dilemma of any central bank, may I remind you once again: we are responsible for price stability. The magnetic needle of our compass is price stability. The decisions on the monetary policy stance are based upon a final judgement on the balance of risks to price stability. ... The success of the transition to the euro has been the success of providing all 306 million inhabitants of the euro area the kind of very low market interest rates that were previously the privilege of only part of the euro area, not of the whole euro area. So, by being as vigilant and credible as possible in delivering price stability in the medium and long run, we make a decisive contribution to growth and job creation.

[On credibility versus inflation targets].....I have said what I had to say on oil and I do not want to repeat myself. We believe that the combination of past decisions � which we sometimes took against strong advice to the contrary � and vigilance � which is, as we say, of the essence now � will permit us to deliver what it is our duty to deliver. And again we are judged by yourselves, by market participants and by all observers. We have very important responsibilities and we are subject to the scrutiny of all.

Question:
as I understand it, OPEC was discussing an 8% production increase in oil output today. Do you expect significant relief on the inflation front if they go through with a production increase of that size?

Trichet:
...we urged the oil producers to take account of the situation and be responsible so that the present episode that we have been witnessing for the last few days and weeks would be transitory. The decision that has been taken is a step in the right direction and I do not want to comment any more on that.

Question:
One last question about oil, but as you say it is the main issue. A couple of times you used the line "urging oil producers to take necessary steps to ensure that the situation is transitory" which implies, at least to my mind, that a) it is a situation that could be brought back down, and that b) the oil producers have a great deal to say about it. There are some economists who make the argument that, for reasons of increased consumption in places like China, we are facing a period of sustained high oil prices, and that this is a secular trend and not something that can be fixed by just raising a production quota. In your conversations today at the Governing Council did you consider the possibility that there is a secular change in oil prices?

Trichet:
We do not claim to be oil specialists and we rely very much on analyses provided by a number of specialised entities. What I say in this domain is true for all others. We are in a world of a high uncertainty.

In that uncertain environment what counts is that you take decisions that are wise and robust, namely that they are as optimal as possible, having worked through various possible representations of an extremely complex reality that cannot be summed up with any level of pertinence by a single mathematical economic model.

It is very important to restate that we are pragmatic. We will respond to the changing reality as this reality materialises. Our own goal is to maintain price stability.

I personally do not exclude any scenario. We could have this scenario you are mentioning as well as others. We are not dogmatic and we do not pretend that we are extra-lucid. But what we can say is that we urge the oil producers and all partners to maintain the highest possible level of responsibility in the present circumstances.

Everybody knows what the consequences of sustained high prices are. But our own responsibility is to ensure price stability, namely to avoid the secondary rounds. That is what is decisive. That is where we concentrate our own action as a central bank.

-------(full press conference text at url)----

By contrast, does the world know, even nearly as transparently, how the competition -- that is, the U.S. dollar-authorities -- are processing, reacting and adjusting to these changing and uncertain factors?

Which currency will ultimately win the international battle for the hearts and minds of its users?

R.
TownCrier
(06/03/2004; 17:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121767)
You've heard Trichet on the oil issue; here we hear OPEC's accommodating words
http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/PressReleases/pr2003/pr92004.htmOPEC PRESS RELEASE, No 10/2004
Beirut, Lebanon,�June 3, 2004
(excerpt)
...Given current high and volatile prices and prevailing concerns regarding supply security, and in order to ensure continued, robust, global economic growth, especially in the economies of fellow Developing Countries, the Conference decided to increase the OPEC production ceiling (excluding Iraq) to 25.5 mb/d, with effect from 1 July 2004, and to 26 mb/d, with effect from 1 August 2004, in order to ensure adequate supply and give a clear signal of OPEC's commitment to market stability and to maintaining prices at acceptable levels to both producers and consumers.� The Conference also decided to convene an Extraordinary Meeting in Vienna, Austria, on 21 July 2004 to review market developments....

-----------
--ALSO--

Selected excerpts of the opening address to the 131st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference by Dr Purnomo Yusgiantoro, President of the Conference and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources for Indonesia:

Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,
Welcome to the 131st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference. Although some of you may not realise it, this is, in fact, the fifth time that an OPEC Conference has been held in Beirut! However, the last occasion was more than three decades ago, in 1972, and the petroleum industry then was a very different place from what it is today....

The purpose of this Extraordinary Meeting is to review our present production agreement, to see whether it matches up to the requirements of today's international oil market, or whether it needs revising to accommodate developments that have taken place since we last met in Vienna on 31 March.......our calculations had shown that the international oil market was well-supplied with crude and that there was the expectation of an occurrence of the traditional drop in oil demand during the second quarter of the year. We observed that crude stocks had been building in the previous two months and that they were projected to continue that trend in the second quarter.

Oil prices, however, have continued to rise during this quarter to levels that have exceeded expectations. This is in spite of the market remaining well-supplied with crude at all times and our Member Countries producing above our Organization's agreed levels � something that we have not discouraged in the light of the present situation. The fact of the matter is that the high price of oil we have seen in recent weeks has not reflected upstream market fundamentals, which is why it has been so difficult for OPEC and other responsible producers to take effective remedial measures.

The high prices have been caused by a combination of factors over which OPEC has no control � speculation on futures markets, tightness in the US gasoline market, geopolitical concerns and higher-than-expected oil demand growth, especially in China and the USA.

We are very concerned about high oil prices and their possible impact on the world and domestic economies. At the moment, we are encouraging our Member Countries to do as much as they can to help stabilise the oil market.

The central objective of our Organization is, after all, its commitment to market stability, with reasonable prices, secure supply and fair returns to investors.

This objective is as old as the hills and dates back to the establishment of OPEC in September 1960. But we can only do so much in the present situation. As an Organization, we are already producing at close to capacity.

Also, even if our Member Countries collectively produced at full capacity � to the extent that this is technically feasible at any one time � there are some analysts who feel that this would have, at best, only a limited impact on prices, since the other factors affecting prices are so overwhelming.

In short, it is essentially not an upstream problem with which we are faced at the present time. This does not mean, however, that we will take an ostrich attitude and bury our heads in the sand! As I have just said, we are very concerned about the present situation and we are doing everything we can to help stabilise the market and restore reasonable prices, and we shall continue to do this for as long as necessary.

We are also conscious of the possibility of a significant counter-effect occurring some time in the future, if prices remain out of line with fundamentals for too long, and this could result in a serious weakening of the price structure, well below acceptable levels. When this has happened in the past, the overall conclusion that has been reached across the petroleum industry has always been the same � there are no net winners and no net losers.

Our concern about avoiding a repetition of excessive counter-effects explains why, over the years, OPEC has placed such a premium on achieving order and stability in the market, balancing, as much as possible, the interests of producers and consumers. ....... And this market-stabilisation mechanism [price-band] worked very well for a while, until the present destabilising factors, over which OPEC has no control, began to play a disproportionately large role on the market's fortunes.

*****To cut a long story short, we find ourselves heading in one direction, in the quest for a practical solution to the market's present problems � dialogue and cooperation. These will not solve all the market's problems overnight, but they can certainly help ease them in the short term and provide adequate breathing space to find effective, longer-term remedies.*****�

OPEC's longstanding commitment to dialogue and cooperation has found expression in our involvement in two major producer-consumer meetings since our last Conference in March � the Second Joint International Energy Agency/OPEC Workshop on Oil Investment Prospects in Paris five weeks ago and the Ninth International Energy Forum in Amsterdam during the past fortnight.

While the emphasis was on longer-term issues and investment at these gatherings, one of the clear messages to emerge was, nevertheless, the importance of present-day stability in providing a solid base for a sound longer-term investment strategy.

Thus our efforts to achieve order and stability in the oil market not only have the obvious immediate benefits for today's producers and consumers, but also help secure the future of the industry and its capability to meet the widely forecast growing oil requirement in the years and decades ahead...

-----(speech can be found at given url)-----

Basically saying, "there is not much more we can possibly do, find fault elsewhere if any fingerpointing needs be done".

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/03/2004; 18:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121768)
Are you diversified? We can help you get there.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
Dollar Bill
(06/03/2004; 18:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121769)
*>*
Them there oil boys MUST be on board the global one world model where the future is a coordinated money rain.
Instead of mentioning conserving thier oil supply for maximum future usage, they are not willing to even mention having cars be more fuel efficient.
I guess the low prices we hit in the nineties spooked them. The kings family spent many billions with nothing really to show for it. They squandered 30 years of earnings in high living. Anyone know the savings of the saudis? Arent the saudis in debt? I believe so. isnt that ridiculous?
MK
(06/03/2004; 19:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121770)
Belgian
Your most recent is a prescient reminder of the relationship between the price of gold and the performance rating of those in power. Alan Greenspan more than anyone understands this relationship in the "public" mind. So gold becomes in some quarters a daily polling number -- a grade, if you will, posted on the state of economic affairs. Control the "poll" and thus control the flow of investment funds, or, check the price and thus check the flow of money away from the bond sector.

I read today in a prominent newletter (it's initials are TGIRO) that Alan Greenspan meets an average of 3.9 times per week with a prominent, high level member of the Bush administration.

We are not dealing with reality here, but the perception of reality.

Comments, please?



Trurl
(06/03/2004; 20:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 121771)
MK - perception vs. reality
This touches an important point. The best reason why I feel there need never be another Au confiscation, ignoring other arguements, is that gold is so far out of the realm of considered 'investments' for most people that it is safe to say they will never get into it before the crowd does.

A while back I showed a 10G kings coin to a 30 year old very smart Dutch guy. He started figuring the conversion rate from old Guilders to dollars. It seemed to never enter his mind that the fact that it was gold might mean something.

Gold is for jewelry; paper is for investing.

It seems we all have a lot of evangelizing to do, still.
slingshot
(06/04/2004; 00:11:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121772)
Sir M.K. perception of reality
You always hit the nail on the head!
I just sent an E-Mail to a friend and it was along the line of real and fake. This may be alittle weird but it should tie in to gold.
How many go out to eat at a seafood place and see Krab on the menu. Many think it is a morphed discription of Crab and is the same. The price is high enough to be the real thing. How about scallops and Bay scallops? Hmmmm.
Here is a good one,"Easy to assemble". If your a fast food junkie, when was the last time your burger looked like the one in the picture? Oh, lets not forget the "Easy Payment Plan". Commericialism preying upon a gullible pubic wanting something for nothing and the easy way out.
Gold is Gold. What you see is what you get. Most of all it is not fake like paper.
Slingshot------------<>
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 00:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 121773)
@MK
I haven't been using words like...obscene...fraternity, lightly. Some weeks ago, I was very surprised about your positive bias towards Sir Alan G. Sir Alan is doing (executing)(representing)(presiding) a VERY "painful" job that has to be done by ...someone ! His name (not his personality) will be the most controversial one in the history books, for decades to come.

Your conclusion (and Trurl's) don't need any comments anymore. You said exactly what is taking place.

Trichet was going to give his conference on condition that he had all the information (conclusions) that he needed from Beirut. Feel the subtle tension hidden behind the questioning. WHY does the whole world must be brainwashed about the high POO affecting Euroland the most !? Wich currency ($ or EURO) is going to profit/suffer from a high/higher/explosive POG !? How can Euroland's permanent (sustained) obscession for price-stability (through ECB/BIS) be rhymed with dollar-mega-inflation (FED/IMF) !?

Does Beirut 1971 remind you of something ? Today, they are back...gathering in Beirut !

There is only ONE oil constraint...the "dollar"... and nothing else!

I wouldn't be surprised at all if,...IF US forces would exit Iraq. But I'm not betting on any probability.

China was implicitely supportive to Iraq in the UN !

The Bush-administration (and the dollar) is losing the pedals and it remains to be seen if they can regain them (the pedals). Just my personal opinion (perception).
Euroland is discretely (delicately) bringing the whole neocon-affair to the surface. Very unfortunate that history keeps on repeating itself.
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 00:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121774)
And,...let us not forget that....
GOLD,...The Wealth Asset,...is an EXCHANGE RESERVE !!!

A RESERVE !!!

This in absolute contrast with the dollar,...that is DEBT !!!

Exchange reserves are there to defend (support) currencies. How can one, defend-support-manage, with a pure ($) debt entity !?

HOW DOES ONE HIDE...DOLLAR=DEBT !? Ask Sir Alan. Central banks stand ready...

Remember Eurostat figures...EMU countries average personal savings (reserves) are 2 times the GDP !!!

It is the new DEBT-(sub)CULTURE versus the good old fashioned RESERVE-SAVINGS prudency !!!

SPEND...SPEND...SPEND...and by preference what you never merited-earned ! The financial brotherhood will "arrange" the businesses of your collateral...with obscene overvaluation, if needed. Thanks Alan.

How simple it is. It is only old rocks, like K. Richebacher, that modestly dare to highlight this ongoing madness. We are being turned "upside down" by a gang !
monTROZ
(06/04/2004; 01:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121775)
Parasites
The M.O.D. II is tied up in Guinea due to the discovery of a large number of automatic rifles bound for Colombia. Anglo's got the diesel and should be back in operation soon. Although the authorities don't believe it, Anglo had nothing to do with the arms! While we haggle over how much gold will make the problem go away. I have time to ponder some questions.

Ok Belgian, let me see if I've got this correct.

A socialist/democratic country needs to have its workers fully employed. Their stupid government policies make the country inefficient at creating jobs for their workers. The workers are the majority of the voters. The businesses take the easier route of trying to sell their goods to a larger more efficient foreign country. It's easier than fixing the inefficiencies of their own government. In using exports to drive their economy they take the jobs from some other country. Doing this usually causes their currency to become unstable and eventually a currency adjustment would reverse the advantage gained by exporting goods. Instead of allowing the currency to become unstable they keep the foreign currency in their own central banks. Holding the more stable currency stabilizes their own, maintains the export relationship with the larger country, and keeps the workers employed. This is essentially a parasitic behavior. Unable to sustain their own economies, the inefficient socialist economies of the world depend on the larger more free country to keep them going. Eventually they drain the vitality of the host. Since there are many parasites feeding off the host, and they are all doing the same thing, when the host falters they all feel the effects and blame the problems they are having on the host. Finally the host must attempt to shake off these parasites by forcing the currency adjustment to occur that has been postponed by the actions of the parasite central banks.
So, is that what we are seeing now? The inefficient socialist countries of the world have sucked jobs and dollars from the U.S. for so long that they can't see any other way of maintaining their countries economies. They whine and complain about the U.S. dollar but refuse to do the steps necessary to become independent of it. In China, they peg their currency to the dollar and then float huge numbers of bad quality loans. Their workers are essentially employed by the U.S. consumers who keep them working. Their workers are grossly underpaid because of the corrupt, foolish and wasteful policies of the government that keeps piling up huge stores of dollars to maintain the currency peg. If the dollars went to the workers, the necessary currency corrections would occur naturally.
In Europe, it is the same. Complicated rules and regulations of the socialist governments make starting new companies difficult and expensive. So new technologies are created elsewhere. Exports hold up a huge portion of the economy. Instead of using the piles of dollars in their banks to fund new industries and new technologies they sit on them. Then they suffer the consequences of holding foreign currency and complain. Then there's Japan, yikes. If they stop storing up dollars and allow the yen to rise the U.S. will stop buying their stuff and their export business (the whole economy) will grind to a halt. So they must continue or the leaders who don't will be voted out of office by the starving plebes. It's the same with the oil exporters, and the rest, Canada, Mexico, India, and all the smaller Asian countries.

If it were not the U.S. being the host, there would be some other country to fill the role. How can this course be avoided? Use gold for currency? Hmm... no, just not enough of it, and the advantages go to the countries with gold mines. It seems to me we need a wise bunch of voters to understand the situation and not try to take the easy way out. Slim chance of that happening though.
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 03:16:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121776)
@monTroz
Without wanting to sound rude...get out of that old, US-centric box, Sir ! US-$'s, permanent depreciation is as "socialistic" as can be ! The pot and the kettle-story.

You are repeating that same old mantra : The US is "pulling" the entire world and will continue to do so !?

Yes,...YES...the entire world was dollar-addicted and is heading towards the conclusion that this is a deadlocking one way street.

The dollar's answer is the same as ever before : Drawn the existing and more new dollar-clients into a cataclysmic dollar tsunami ! Add more of the same addictive dollar-drug and make it more potent. You probably agree on this, but less on the following...

Not everybody wishes to remain, ad infinitum, dollar-addicted and is anticipating the dollar withdrawal. effects. In other words...with the dollar for as long as it goes...without the dollar, when the caroussel stops.

That's the "play" monTroz,...how is the dollar-carrousel going to slow down, stop and reverse !? Guess why the euro AND oil pictures are magnifying !?

One of my first stupid and clumsy reactions to the A/FOA revelations, was...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH GOLD ! Now I do understand how stupid my impulsive reaction was. There is "plenty" of PAPER-gold at ever lower prices...BUT...there is an unbelievable shortage of PHYSICAL GOLD at today's paper-prices !!! Yes, indeed...there is enough physical gold for the infinitesimal shrimps (us)...BUT...there is almost no Physical Gold left (available) for the Gold whales-Giants !!!

That's WHY certain CBs are "re-distributing" their existing GOLD WEALTH ! THEY ARE ANTICIPATING THE END OF THE DOLLAR CAROUSSEL. And the most confusing in all this is that they do take their time for it. After all, we lived already so long with the dollar-system...why should we press things going forward in a hurry !?

We remained dollar-clients for so long, because the $-monopolist had no competitor and "was" behaving ! Things have changed and continue to change. The euro buys 22% more than the dollar. Not bad for a zeuro(system).

Nobody is going to throw any dollar-paper into the fire, today...TODAY ! But a few billion other people in this globalizing world, have been...are,... waking up and standing up. They do and continue to question the whole dollar-system . They are in the process of making some shocking assesments. America is and will remain a great country,...and Americans (old Europeans) are fine people...BUT THEY ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES on this planet !

Remember that the ECB...stands ready...with its marking to market of its dollar reserves as to anticipate the consequences of fading support for the dollar-system. This crucial element is purposely and permanently ignored by ALL Gold watchers ! If,...IF...Euroland had the firm intention to remain a dollar-client...WHY would it change the aging dollar gold system into full exposure of its goldreserves to "the market" !!!-??? Is this a "socialistic" measure ?

No more dollars or dollar-system, for me, Sir. Thank you and the pleasure was surely mine. Smile monTroz.
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 04:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121777)
Interaction Bush - Greenspan
Monetary/financial policies (read:interventions) need to take place with the appropiate (enhancing) background of geo-politics.
Now that Tenet is persona non grata and President Bush isn't spending so much of his time with Tenet's briefings...he can listen more attentively to Alan.
Problem : How to raise $-IRs without rocking boats ? How to organise a dollar-positive carry trade ?
This should happen without losing the controlling positions of the dollar. Bush in Euroland for some lobbying efforts (UN votes).
What are "we" ($+EURO) going to do about those nasty oilprices !? These are of course deafh man's talks with the exception of the would be Duce's replica, Sylvio B. There's even a dinner party with the French weasel, Chirac. Joint statement ?

The dollar is stepping up its efforts to win some more time. And that time is given in one more round of dollar-indifference (not support - no explicite erosion efforts).

POO is not collapsing after Beirut and will certainly consolidate as is seemingly being evidenced by the forerunner POG.
misetich
(06/04/2004; 07:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121779)
Venezuela Says OPEC Needs Higher Prices, Seeks Oil Above $30
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=akmZn2zdwcx4&refer=news_indexSnip:

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, said the group should raise its price targets to counter a depreciating dollar, saying a fair price for oil is in the low $30s a barrel.

Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez said after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries summit that ministers agreed yesterday to study a Venezuelan plan to raise the target in September. The price band's floor should be about $28 a barrel, up from $22 now, said Ramirez, who declined to specify its upper limit. The top of the range is $28.

``Current prices are extremely high,'' Ramirez said. ``But a price of $28 a barrel is also low. We think that the fair price is a number between the two. We think that a number in the $30s is fair.'' When asked if a fair price would be about $32 or $33 a barrel, Ramirez said, ``That could be.''
....................
``When we established the first band, there were differences of opinion but we came to an conclusion,'' Ramirez said. ``The falling dollar is raising our real costs,'' boosting the funds needed to invest in oil fields.
....................
Oil revenue is the principal source of money to pay Venezuela's $22 billion of foreign debt. While most of the debt is in dollars, the government has sold an increasing amount of debt in euros in recent years. As the dollar falls against the euro, it has to find more dollars to pay each euro of interest and principal.
**********************
Misetich

Its a vicious circle - lower $ higher Oil and the trend reinforces itself

The US economic recovery is very fragile and the $ is being maintained artificially high by continued intervention....going against market forces

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
MK
(06/04/2004; 07:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 121780)
Trurl, Belgian, Slingshot: On Perception, Reality and War
In recent days, there have been complaints about the price of oil being set in the commodity pits in New York and no longer on the spot market, or even by the vaunted OPEC (Sound familiar?) Once again a perception of reality as opposed to reality. The oil market itself has vaulted substantially higher contrary to public policy both in the West and the Middle East.

To the West, this is undoubtedly unacceptable but one can also see its growing helplessness in the face of world economic events and the emerging disaster in the Middle East. What is happening now -- the unravelling of the Middle East as a reliable, low price oil source -- is a grander event in the scheme of things than just about anything else I can think of.

On top of that we have this situation with George Soros that bears some scrutiny in that he has vowed to bring down the Bush administration. Don't forget that Soros -- a speculator, not a central bank governor or finance minister -- was able to bring the Bank of England to its knees several years ago with an attack on the pound sterling against which the British could not muster an effective defense. And now we have a very politicized Soros out to undermine the Bush administration. What is Soros up to these days (other than being introduced as a sage social commentator by Hillary Clinton)? And how much does he have to do with the current price of oil? In a recent poll I saw, the respondents were asked what was likely to affect their thinking in coming to a decision on the presidential election. The answer was not Iraq, not the economy, not social issues but the price of gasoline. The price of gasoline!! If I were the Bush administration, I'd have the chairman of the Fed in top level meetings on a near daily basis as well, and I'd be asking him what he thinks Soros is up to.

When the politics settles down over the next few days, the gold price will likely exhibit a delayed reaction to what's happening in the oil market. Movement into gold is steady for reasons that have nothing to do with the dollar price or its potential (to wit the recent WGC stats on burgeoning world wide demand) and everything to do with an expanding group of investors who see gold as a staging area for capital. They want to see how the current political/economic environment plays out in the grand scheme of things, and they recognize that something major is going on. You are right to say, Belgian, that big money is quietly buying. Big money is also quietly watching the seismic change taking place in the world economy, and will continue to buy especially if the price remains rangebound.

War endemically is a time of rising commodity prices. Fortunes will be made and lost in the process. Since those who are conducting this war postulate that it is one that could cover the next decade, we can look forward to economic upheaval and dislocation as the norm for a long time to come. Nowhere is that more evident than in the current oil market. Nation states in need of oil avoid destroying pipelines during military operations. Terrorists out to undermine and destroy nation states do not target with an eye to the needs of the industrialized West, and unless you station troops 10 yards from each other up and down the length, there is little that can be offered in the way of defending those pipelines, as we have seen in Iraq. No wonder the price of oil is over $40 given the circumstances, and why some are calling for a $50 dollar price in the near future.

Since oil is a component in the pricing of just about everything we buy, we are talking now about a secular shift in the way commodities are valued (priced) for the long run, and those who own the yellow metal will come out big winners as this scenario unfolds. Why gold wouldn't be running to successively higher prices as an inflation hedge under these circumstances is beyond the understanding of most knowledgeable commentators.
Smeagol
(06/04/2004; 07:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121781)
(No Subject)
"It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true." (Henry Kissinger)

S.
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 08:25:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121782)
The Soros confetti-pool....
The leverage of any confetti-pool is for hire to the highest and safiest bidder. I think that the Soros phenomenon isn't different than many other providers of financial levers.

Soros is a financial legionaire ! And it is very convenient that it is extremely difficult to draw the line where your title of "speculator" begins or ends.

If the Bush administration would lose the elections on high gasprices, the new administration will have to face the same huge fundamental problems. Soros' helped the UK to stay out of EMU and the success was tangible for the contractor and the legionaire (hireling). What is there to win with a defeated Bush administration ? Nothing imo.

But, whilst the propagandists under contract, continue their job of keeping today's fiction alive, those very same hirelings are ACCUMULATING Gold under optimal conditions.
I am profitting from it in doing exactly the same...but nevertheless am not too wretched to say that I find the practice revolting. But as a shrimp, I don't want to fall victim of the perfidious fiction.

The day that Gold explodes, all will be understood much clearer and accepted that things were evolving, grosso modo, as has been outlined overhere.

In an "harmonious" jungle, all species must have their place and reason to exist.
MK
(06/04/2004; 08:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 121783)
Coincidentally. . . .
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/aden/AdenArticleJune06-04.pdf"Terror, Oil and Gold: The Link Intensifies"

Aden Sisters offer reasons why gold has not moved with oil.

MK
(06/04/2004; 08:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 121784)
Belgian. . .
Soros is a 'financial legionairre.'

Does that he mean he works for the French government?

(smile)
OvS
(06/04/2004; 09:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121785)
Giants?
Me thinks that there is a cabal, or more
benign: That Crowd, that has the political
will to be the bankers of the One World, or
Bi-Polar World, or Matrix World, who have or
will have "control" of most gold on this
planet. That will give them the mandate of
being "The" banker for "all" global activities.
Amen. OvS
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/04/2004; 09:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121786)
Exchange today's harvest for timeless value!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

1-800-869-5115
USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

goldenboy
(06/04/2004; 10:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 121787)
MK: Oil, Soros, Bush
Since Clinton drained off strategic reserves just prior to an election, I believe it will happen again regardless of whether we ever find out about it. (for National Security reasons in a time of war, of course) So, the question as I see it is when.
When it happens there should be an immediate effect on crude prices and oil companies, a (temporary ?) reduction in prices.
This creates multiple profit opportunities for the large and well-connected titans (Soros & others).
Now, lets say that the titans have good intelligence with others and know what they intend to do to influence outcomes.
What a nightmare! Manipulation here to get elected, manipulation potential in Saudi by whomever to cut off oil supplies at the same time to counter the re-election of Bush. The well connected in terms of communication and intelligence in the middle, trading every swing.
OvS
(06/04/2004; 10:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 121788)
"Agents"
Soros is an easy read. More interesting is
a Sin clair who won't have to suffer a safra since he is wide open via pressure on his Tanzanian treasures...Just phantasizing, don't
take me too serious...That's how I amuse
myself....OvS
mikal
(06/04/2004; 12:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121789)
@OvS
Re:
"Soros is an easy read. More interesting is
a Sin clair who won't have to suffer a safra since he is wide open via pressure on his Tanzanian treasures"
Whether or not you're "phantasizing", humans are not "easy reads".
And comparing Safra and "a Sin clair" on the basis of your
indirect allegation of a mutual vulnerability to a certain "fate", as tragic and murky as
Safra's was, is thoughtless without solid
proof.
misetich
(06/04/2004; 13:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 121790)
Global: The Mother of All Carry Trades - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040604-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

The American consumer has put on the biggest carry trade of them all. In a job- and income-short recovery, consumers have defied the fundamentals of consolidation and kept on spending. Consumption has soared to a record 71% of GDP in the past two and a half years, well in excess of the 67% share of the 1990s; moreover, during just the past year, the Y-o-Y growth rate of real consumption expenditures accelerated sharply from 2.3% in 1Q03 to 4.3% in 1Q04. Income short consumers have turned, instead, to two exogenous sources of purchasing power -- a steady stream of tax cuts and the extraction of equity from their favorite asset, the home.

The asset-based impetus to consumer spending is nothing more than a huge carry trade. Taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates, American homeowners have embarked on a record mortgage-refinancing bonanza. By some estimates, the equity extraction that has resulted from this frenzy exceeded $550 billion in 2003, or more than 6.5% of disposable personal income
...........................
The only catch in this sure thing is the means by which it occurs -- debt. The American consumer has never -- repeat, never -- gone on a debt binge the likes of which has occurred in recent years. Household sector debt now exceeds 85% of GDP -- an all-time high and about 20 percentage points higher than the ratio a decade ago.
..........................
Think again. Debt service measures published by the Federal Reserve are already flashing warning signs. The Fed now has two official gauges of household debt burdens -- a narrow measure of mortgage and installment debt payments and a broader measure of financial obligations, which also includes auto lease payments, residential rents, and homeowners' insurance and property tax payments. Even with interest rates at 40-year lows, both of these debt burden proxies are in the upper decile of historical experience. The reason: the sheer magnitude of the stock of outstanding indebtedness.
.................
Think again here as well. In recent months, there has been an ominous surge in the demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). In May 2004, the ARMs share of the dollar volume of new mortgage originations rose to 50%, up sharply from the 20% average that had prevailed from 2001 through mid-2003.
.....................
Just-released government data on nationwide house prices are flashing distinct warning signs of just such a possibility (see Dick Berner's, "Bubble Trouble?" in today's Forum for a more sanguine assessment of this aspect of the problem). The so-called OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) US house price index has now increased at a 9.8% average annual rate over the past two quarters, one of the strongest two-quarter increases on record and enough to take the index up 7.7% above its year-earlier level in 1Q04.
........................
The problem with asset bubbles in an overly indebted economy is that they are a recipe for disaster
.....................
American households have refused to live within their means, as those means are delineated by what they earn on their jobs. Instead, consumers have repeatedly gone to the Fountain of Youth and, courtesy of an overly generous central bank, freely monetized purchasing power from an increasingly over-valued asset.
...................
History tells us that carry trades end when central bank tightening cycles begin. The Fed knows full well what's at risk in the biggest carry trade of them all. Little wonder the US central bank wants to be "measured" in normalizing its policy rate. In my jaundiced view, it will take nothing short of a miracle to extricate the self-indulgent American consumer from this mess.
***********************
Misetich

Sustainability of consumer spending based on Asset inflation is the real issue.

The same, sustainability word, applies to Trade deficits, current account and budget deficits

Each Fed "solution" offers temporarily relief causing additional future woes.

The insistence on a strong $ policy in light an impending recession (read Y2001) is only a minor example of shortsightness that caused millions of US jobs to be off-shored, never to come back...

The Feds have been unable to turn the economy around in the last 3 years - and the problems are compounding - as geopolitical, homeland security, budget deficits, disappearance of millions of jobs - higher energy prices, are making it even more difficult going forward...

Events are closer than the appear on your rearview mirror

-Baby boomers retirements are only a few years away....tic....tic...tic...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
goldenboy
(06/04/2004; 13:52:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121791)
@Misetich: Consumer Debt & Mortgages
So, basically the only way out is a massive increase in the units of exchange, ie dollars, to float those debts away. Somewhat like the 70`s without the pricing power of labour to maintain the lifestyle, but possibly keep everything afloat in a stagfation? What do you think?
Belgian
(06/04/2004; 15:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 121793)
Sir Kosares
Maybe, Soros has been working already... or might been hired in the future by the French...without uniform of course as to remain incognito. Legionaire...Legion d'Honneur...sounds good, no !? Yes I'm smiling (ear to ear).
Have a nice day, Sir.
Goldendome
(06/04/2004; 17:01:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121794)
More physical gold finds a new home.

An infinitesimal gold shrimp ((me) as Belgian probably accurately depicts us--no offense taken) picked a few crumbs from the sand today. (Two Danish 20 Kroners and a Brit. sovereign). A total of about .75oz. Surely, an infinitesimal amount, but as stated here many times in the past: small accumulations done steadily, will eventually grow to a significant amount of wealth, for us shrimps.

As Sir Ari has stated many times: If you have over-priced U.S. dollar holdings, what better thing to do with them, than use them to accumulate physical gold wealth, that is forcibly underpriced in our Currency?? Good golly, when the dollar finally goes down in the eyes of the world public, gold will rise in value against everything priced in dollars and possibly any other paper currency.

Do you remember a few months ago? When Gold began to march steadily over the $400. level?
I remember...And one thing that I remember, was the regretful feeling that I might never be able to buy gold again, as it was marching daily to higher levels...Now, you and I, have another Golden opportunity to accumulate the metal of Kings, at prices little more than those of a couple of years ago.

You look at those dollars in your wallet--Christ man! Those things are going down EVERY DAY.
Look at your Gasoline prices, milk, bread, --housing, for Gods sake. Gold is cheap!, Cheap! in dollar terms.

One of these days, you people--who continue to hold--Dammed near all of your wealth in paper (of one form or another) are going to be some sorry SOB's (sorry, cross that anacronym out- and substitute for it, sorry shrimp).

You need to be gettin' out there somewhere (here on this site) and begin to buy , or buy more, in some steady form of accumulation. Or, if you have a big stash of paper wasting away in the bank--Give the folks here a telephone call and get started...

One of these days, something big is going to happen. When it does, you will (possibly) not be able to buy physical gold at any price...The physical market will control the futures, as they go to backwardation--and that will be-- Hyper-inflation. (Recognized for all the world to see.)

Gold--Gettin' more of it.
Cometose
(06/04/2004; 21:23:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121795)
JUNE GOLD / Ned Post 121639; Cytck Post 121665; Slingshot Post 121679
THere are facts

1 Massive Liquidity Binge , unprecedented by the fed
2 Most of the Navies of the Globe have set to Sea
U S deployment may be unprecedented at stated levels


3 In January A Ham radio operator intercepted a Radio Broadcast alluding to an EVENT described as "incoming" and countdown to 146 days which would bring us to June 20 ,2004 / Code word Snowball was used.....Comets have been alluded to as Dirty Snowballs...

Rumor

1 Dr Grant Gartrell, Australian Astronomer / Physicist or someone using his identity is now broadcasting on the Internet evidence that compliments number 3 above. He states that this info has threat may have been known for 20 years in the scientific community .

I ran a Google Search on his name and found the following:

Documentation may be identified at following site:
http://www.prophecykeepers.com/3p.html


schedule of events is referred to ......


THree objects identified ........One of them is referred to as Anomaly ......THE community of Astronomers that are aware of this "Anomaly" don't know what it is and have never seen it before

VENUS (the BRIGHT AND MORNING STAR / BIBLICALLY was LUCIFER but is NOW CHRIST) sun TRANSIT June 8 corresponds with our entering into DUST CLOUD IN SPACE made from NOVA EXPLOSION thought to have occured in 2 BC that relate to EVENT DESCRIBED.

EVENT DESCRIBED will cause the SUN TO( DIM and the MOON TO TURN RED..

........and there's going to be quite a light show according to MR GARTRELL.....

IF these things are known and they begin to show themselves as time has already given manifestations of ( comets , increasing meteorites , weather changes etc).....
.....on June 7,8 if dust cloud shows up ....as stated
the big boys in the know will probably start trading this event ..... Dates 19,20, and 26,27 and a subsequent date are also important.......THis Stange STORM is supposed to last for a Month ........

Some of the effects of this cloud as stated , may interfere with some of our infrastructure....Satelites,etc.

Preparation and Planning may be the order of the day .....
Stocking up on supplies and having some emergency Cash might be a plan .... Black Blade Echo

THis one is outside of the Jurisdiction or the Contol of the PPT or the GOLD CABAL.

slingshot
(06/04/2004; 22:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 121796)
Cometose
I live in a Navy town and I do not see any mobilization. Movement of planes and squadrons to safer locations in the past have been done for hurricane conditions. The US Navy has deployed seven of its battle groups but the total is either 12 or 13. Why only save half if there is going to be a disaster? I have not seen the increase of supplies to support such a deployment and its substainabilty for a long time. Not yet anyhow. But if the fliping Moon turns red and the sun pales during the day, rest assured I will stock up on my favorite brew and smokes. Get a good buzz on and watch the lightshow ;0)
Slingshot-------<>
Cometose
(06/04/2004; 22:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 121797)
Where's Mahendra ???
This is his Baleywhick isn't it ?????
Cosmic Occurences of the Celestial realm .....
I'm suprised we haven't heard from him on this subject..
Or have we indeed already heard from him on this subject
so subtlely in an omission kind of way ..........
Goldendome
(06/04/2004; 22:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 121798)
Inflation adjusted gasoline prices--No problem.

Ever since gasoline prices began moving up to record levels over the past few months, news commentators have liked to throw in the little addendum, "adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices are lower today than they were during the oil crises of the 1970's and early '80s." I think that this statement is designed to make us feel better; so that we say to ourselves: "Whew, guess it's not that bad after all...What am I complaining about?"

Well, you know what? If you ain't got no dough, I'd wager that it sure seems like they're a lot higher!

I would suppose there are also some little graphs somewhere posted that would show it was all true, also. (That the prices were lower, adjusted for inflation.)
Perhaps the folks making these smiley graphs and producing the addendum smiley talk, could be doing this for many things? Do all the other things that go up in price also fall in price [inflation adjusted] when measured against some peak point in some past price spike? If so, why are we not being told about these items, as we are told about gasoline prices-- that the prices are not so high as we may be thinking that they are? Probably, those smiley graphs can not be produced in other sectors of the economy because they do not exist!

OH! but wait one minute! I can think of another area where inflation adjusted prices are lower than they were a quarter century ago... a lot lower--can you??

That's right guys, Gold and Silver! I think that tells us where the under-valued assets are. Where your buck, greenback, frogskin- will still buy the most value for your inflated fiat!
Great Albino Bat
(06/05/2004; 01:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121799)
Goldendome and Cometose...another insomniac here

Well, well, so the world is coming to an end. We just heard another alarm couple of years' ago - remember y2k?

The good Dr. Gartrel and Snowball.net etc, navies putting to sea...makes a good story.

Dr. Gartrel's mood gives him away. He is perhaps a good but undistinguished scientist who has a big ego problem, who feels he has not been accorded the recognition his giant intellect deserves; he has been, likely, sidelined by his peers. Something snapped. He is now taking his vengeance on a "stupid" world that does not know it is doomed. Only he, the Great Gartrel, knows this and can perceive the threat.

Notice how angry he sounds. Well, poor man, he is raving. These things happen to some unfortunate people.

But rest easy. The world may come to an end, but not because of a rock from out space, but because of insanity in high places inhabited by people with messianic ends.

*****

Accumulate gold. However little you manage to accumulate, it will seem a great deal in a day to come - a day that is ever closer! If we could know what is going on behind the scenes at the CB's - Belgian is quite likely on target - we would, I am quite totally convinced, be amazed AT HOW MUCH WE REALLY DO KNOW OF WHAT IS GOING ON! (The trouble is, we doubt ourselves! We find it hard to give ourselves due credit for understanding the huge implications for gold that we are perceiving every day, everywhere.)

Fellow goldmeisters: accumulate gold. Never, ever doubt you are doing the right thing for your future and that of your loved ones, who will bless your name someday.

The GAB
bugs
(06/05/2004; 04:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121800)
...
"As some readers will recall from their misspent High School years, this is the poem which ends with the oft-quoted but so far premature stanza:

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Even more apropos is the almost as well-known opening line to "The Wasteland", where Eliot informs the reader that "April is the cruelest month..." But of course we already knew that after the past few days in the US markets."
Cometose
(06/05/2004; 07:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121801)
GAB
Thanks for your analysis; I'm comforted and enlightened in the perception of Dr Gartrell as being from the FRINGE of his Discontent. I also feel "stupider" at the same time for percieving as possible that we may be coming through a cloud of Space Dust. Enlightened and Stupider at the same time .........mind expansion without the benefit of the Pharmaceutical World.
Toolie
(06/05/2004; 07:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121802)
Housing: It's Different This Time
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc060404.pdfThose who thought that U.S. equity prices at the close of 1999 were significantly overvalued were dismissed with: "You don't understand. It's different this time." Asset price bubbles deflate when the "gas" flowing into them -- central bank credit -- gets restricted. As we enter a period when the Fed will start to restrict the growth in the credit it provides the U.S. financial system, it will be interesting to see if it really is different this time for the housing market or if it is a bubble just as the stock market was back in 1999.
...........
.....When corporate equities went into a swoon starting in 2000, corporate defaults shot up because debt levels relative to the replacement value of corporations were highly elevated. But I'm sure it will be different this time for housing. We had better hope so inasmuch as U.S. commercial banks have a record 60% of their earning assets in mortgage-related obligations.
*******************
Toolie: When Robert McHugh of Safe Haven says "M-3 is up an amount that we've never seen before without a crisis - $155 billion over the past 4 weeks, a $2.0 trillion annualized pace, a 22.2 percent annualized rate of growth!!! There must be a crisis of historic proportions coming, and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific imminent event. What could it be?"

Could it be preparation to prevent bank failures in a rising rate environment?
Max Rabbitz
(06/05/2004; 07:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121803)
Golden Dust Cloud?
This is possible because gold is made deep inside the nuclear furnace of old stars. Is there some way to collect this dust? Maybe a big vacuum device? Alas, I suspect any super nova explosion that occurred anywhere closer than many light years from here would have simply fried us all 2000 years ago. But I have read that there are older interstellar dust clouds that our solar system could pass through on it's slow journey around the galaxy, with possible climatic effects.
Max Rabbitz
(06/05/2004; 08:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121804)
Rise in M3
How is this money getting into the system? Is the Fed now buying treasuries that the Japanese no longer want?
Belgian
(06/05/2004; 09:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121805)
@GAB
Most of the forum-people do know much more than they think they know. But we are victims of fear, doubt, confusion, deception and many other kinds of emotions that blurr our vision and immobilise/deter our actions.

Price inflation in Euroland is stealthly rising. IRs are creaping up. The political-debt-driven economic principle goes into a higher gear. The currency (euro) also needs to depreciate much faster than the rising debt as to create the perception of expansionary growth. And growth must be, because of the ever rising debt logic.

And guess what happened...EURO-POG declined from EURO11,000/Kg to EURO10,200/Kg ! This is NOT...cannot be that this goldprice decline comes from goldholders who do sell their metal at exactly the moment that the currency is responsible for price-inflation. No, the paper-POG gets knocked by the gold-guards !

With our collective knowledge, gathered overhere, we should show our immense happiness for this extraordinarry present that is laid down on our feet. Alas, I don't see any signs of Golden happeness, but rather a depressed, empty forum ! I conclude that the "gold-guards" succeed perfectly in there task (mission) to keep well-informed Goldphiles (us) away from the precious and lure the majority back into the confetti with higher IRs as ample (insufficiant)compensation for the present and coming loss in purchasing power ! It are only the Giants who do profit from this involuntary privilege of obscenely cheap Gold.

We KNOW by our educated/informed intuition that this is happening behind the multiple screens of deception. But we are paralysed, confused and full of doubts.

This artificial "UN-GOLD" atmosphere is a political creation. A Western one ! There are no monetary problems arising with the recent doubling of a metal like palladium for instance. But don't let this happen with the extremely politically loaded Gold, or...there is going to be a lot of trouble.

Everything can be floated ** a la carte **, except GOLD !!!

This is the most strongest evidence of the tremendous power that Gold still represents ! We know that, intuitively...but,...bow under the pressures that this Gold-power is excercising. That's WHY most goldphiles had to be guided to a derivative of Gold and landed for some decades now, at the speculation on the paper-profitability of goldmines.

Nobody can corner Gold under the circumstances of the present goldmarket ! Changing the existing, untouchable goldmarket, that growed since 1971, will be a "political" decision. The more the goldprice behaves out of wack, the more our intuitive knowledge comes closer to "political" Gold. Problem is that this understanding of the political association of Gold, has arrived so lately in the cyclus when there are already so much "old" goldphiles who have been selling their precious into the paper-market. The new and old loyal traditional goldphiles have become very scarce. The 2 1/2 decades Gold-manipulation (management-intervention) was very succesfull. The gold-accumulators of today are the ones who know where Gold, the goldmarket is heading. They have no fear or doubts and are only handicapped by the scarce availability of Physical Gold. But that's not a problem, considering the final revaluation of Gold that they know is coming.

Most goldwatchers don't even take one second to consider the present obscene goldprice and simply (conveniently) conclude that Gold is finally "out". No, not palladium, platinum, copper or any other resource...ONLY GOLD is out and Basta ! Do you feel what I'm trying to suggest !?

If Gold was only an industrial metal, goldminers and colluding speculators would already be able to shoot the POG to the moon, as is possible with any other commodity that is taken under the umbrella of a cartel (syndicate).
This isn't happening with Gold, because,...it is much more than an industrial metal !!! The Gold cartel (syndicate) is an anti-Gold one, because of Gold NOT being a commodity !!!

The anti (and now pro) diverging Gold syndicates are NOT from the industrial pool,...but purely out of the political pools (CBs) (plural) !

And here you have come to the right conclusion, GAB. What can go wrong when one keeps on accumulating Physical Gold in Possession !? Indeed, Sir...NOTHING can go wrong for a long time to come ! Most people will have no trouble in agreeing with the argumentation. But most of them automatically start comparing "Gold-returns" in paper-confetti terms with the competing papers wich had a two decades glorious time. Gold averse people don't care that the past-present-future, paper-heaven was organised with confetti expansion a volonte ! The goldphiles left, know much better and have already concluded that the debt-driven-political economies have natural limits. We are at the "TRILLION" level now...not much oxygen left !

Fine weekend to all.

Melting Pot
(06/05/2004; 10:39:44 MDT - Msg ID: 121806)
(no subject)

"Without the confidence factor, many believe a paper money system is liable to collapse eventually." --Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Gold, p. 10

"You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold." --George Bernard Shaw

"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide."--Elgin Groseclose

"Where would we be if we had I.O.U.'s scrip and certificates floating all around the country?" Instead he [FDR] decided to "issue currency against the sound assets of the banks. [As opposed to issuing currency against gold.] The Federal Reserve Act lets us print all we'll need. And it won't frighten the people. It won't look like stage money. It'll be money that looks like real money." [Emphasis added.] (Source: 'Closed for the Holiday: The Bank Holiday of 1933', p20 - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)--Treasury Secretary Woodin, 3/7/33


Gold, get you some in these most unstable of times!
mikal
(06/05/2004; 12:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121807)
'Goldilocks Economy' Could Be Pure Fantasy
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20040605_204.html @Melting Pot
This country is on another razor's edge
of stagflation, but th media doesn't admit it yet.
The link shows again how monopolized media
understates current quandaries to chisel
the edge off, while their co-vested interests get an edge up in chiseling our future.
ge
(06/05/2004; 13:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121808)
Oil
As the oil prices approached 40 dollars and the media too much noise about it, a promenade at the internet yielded the following results. There was reason to be suspicious because, normally, they do not advertise assets, which make new highs!

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,421888,00.html

Observer reporter talking to/about Sheikh Yamani (January 2001):

"in the Seventies he was not persuaded of the benefits to Opec of hiking crude prices by the 400 per cent that came about in 1973. The importance of North Sea oil and the fall in Opec's contribution to global production, from 70 per cent to less than 30 per cent, are testimony to his wisdom."...

"At this point he makes an extraordinary claim: 'I am 100 per cent sure that the Americans were behind the increase in the price of oil. The oil companies were in in real trouble at that time, they had borrowed a lot of money and they needed a high oil price to save them.'

He says he was convinced of this by the attitude of the Shah of Iran, who in one crucial day in 1974 moved from the Saudi view, that a hike would be dangerous to Opec because it would alienate the US, to advocating higher prices.

'King Faisal sent me to the Shah of Iran, who said: "Why are you against the increase in the price of oil? That is what they want? Ask Henry Kissinger - he is the one who wants a higher price".'

Yamani contends that proof of his long-held belief has recently emerged in the minutes of a secret meeting on a Swedish island, where UK and US officials determined to orchestrate a 400 per cent increase in the oil price."

---

From another source:

http://earth.prohosting.com/~jswift/engdahl.html#Chapter%209

"In May 1973, with the dramatic fall of the dollar still fresh, a group of 84 of the world's top financial and political insiders met at this secluded island resort of the Swedish Wallenberg banking family, at Saltsjoebaden, Sweden. This gathering of Prince Bernhard's Bilderberg Group heard Walter Levy outline a "scenario" for an imminent 400 percent increase in OPEC petroleum revenues. The purpose of the secret Saltsjoebaden meeting was not to prevent the expected oil price shock, but to plan and manage the about-to-be-created flood of oil dollars, a process US Secretary of State Kissinger later called "recycling the petro-dollar flows."...

"In 1973, the powerful men grouped around Bilderberg decided to launch a colossal assault against industrial growth in the world, in order to tilt the balance of power back to the advantage of Anglo-American financial interests. In order to do this, they determined to use their most prized weapon -- control of the world's oil flows. Bilderberg policy was to trigger a global oil embargo in order to force a dramatic increase in world oil prices. Since 1945, world oil trade had, by international custom, been priced in dollars. American oil companies dominated the postwar market. A sharp sudden increase in the world price of oil, therefore, meant an equally dramatic increase in world demand for US dollars to pay for that necessary oil."

-----

Same story by Another (Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 19:55 ID#60253) :

The US oil companies knew that the cheap reserves were found. The governments knew this also. The only low cost oil reserves in the world at this time were in the Middle East, and their cost to find and produce was very low. It was known, that, in time, ALL oil would come from this land. As much higher US dollar prices were needed to allow exploration and production of other reserves, worldwide. But, how to get crude prices, up, when the Gulf States were OK to pump and produce in exchange for "gold backed dollars"? I will not name the gentlemen that brought this thinking to the surface in that era, but it was discussed. It was known that oil liked gold. It was known that "local oil" would be used up without higher prices. What if, the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, and gold was managed "upward" to say, $208 per ounce? The dynamics of the market would force oil to rise and allow for much needed capital to search for the higher priced oil that was known to exist! The producers would find shelter in gold even as the price of oil was increased in terms of a now "non gold dollar"! Price inflation would rise, but gold and oil would also increase. The dollar would continue to be used as the only payment for oil, and in doing so replace gold as the backing for this "reserve currency". All would be fair.

The war in 1973 and the Iran problem did make markets "overshoot", but all did work to the correct end. The result was "a needed higher price for a commodity that was, as reserves, in much over supply by the wrong countries"! It was known that the public would never have accepted this "proposition" as fair. To this end, we have come.

And it is from this end, that the gold markets are managed for today!
Great Albino Bat
(06/05/2004; 13:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121809)
Belgian - thanks for your message!

I concur 100% with your views.

Fortunately for the world, there are still very large numbers of people around the world - outside the Western World - who are still in closer touch with reality, because they have not "developed" - into media-managed robots.

India, China, South East Asia, China...these people hold the key, perhaps?

The Western World is hypnotized with paper-money returns and thinks in paper-money returns. Thus, gold has few adherents in the West. Most people are thinking of savings, of pensions, medical care, public education for the kids and Social Security and are comfortable with the prospects. Month-long vacations are considered a social right. Grasshoppers abound! Dust that will turn to dust.

I had a conversation with an American college Ph D professor and one of his students lately. The student was totally amazed when I told him my savings were in physical gold. He could hardly believe his ears! Dumbfounded! That boy has a LOT to learn, but he won't learn it from his Prof., who is careful not to talk of anything that is not agreeable to the Establishment. His career is at stake. So he has censored himself into nothingness.

Good weekend to you, Sir Belgian, I'll raise a cup to your health, this noon.

The GAB
wehappyfew
(06/05/2004; 13:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 121810)
End of the world... hoax
http://www.surfingtheapocalypse.net/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=3851Dr Gartrell and his comets are, apparently, a hoax.

GROUP TAKES CREDIT FOR AUSSIE BLOKE 'BLIND SKIES'

"...Our initial hypothesis was straightforward enough: Given the barest minimum of verifiable evidence, ordinary citizens of average to above-average intelligence could be duped into wholesale belief in a catastrophe scenario, provided there was ample corroboration from equally ambiguous, non-credible sources.

We never anticipated the myth spreading beyond the confines of GLP. When the conservative website, Bushcountry, picked up the story, we realized that our initial models had failed miserably to account for the �word-of-mouth� potential inherent in the internet. At most, we thought perhaps a few other fringe sites might get on board, but it�s obvious to us now that it�s only a matter of time before a mainstream media outlet syndicates this content, at which point the story will explode into something far beyond our ability to control.

In fact, it may already be there.

We should have spoken up sooner. This all moved so quickly, we just weren�t prepared to adapt to the monster we had unleashed.

For our own protection, because it�s becoming abundantly clear that civil/criminal litigation may result from this experiment, we cannot and will not identify ourselves, nor will we reveal any details that might readily be traced to us... "


See URL below.
Cavan Man
(06/05/2004; 14:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121811)
@ ge
Those petro dollars flowed dback into the US; bought a LOT of stuff--securities, real estate, war material, etc., etc. (see Aristotle's five part essay in the archioves here) This effect mitigated stagnant capital markets and fostered continued US economic growth albeit modest. Though 1980 was a bad year and 1982 worse; beginning there (1982)with RR's administration policies (fiscal & economic) the US economy began its' long upward surge. Now, prosperity and growth shifts to Another continent(s). The transition will be volatile. Buy physical gold. The EU and Asia have set the price free.
Federal_Reserves
(06/05/2004; 14:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121812)
Money supply - things to consider
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page16.pdfThe M's

The recent stock market selloff means many are raising cash levels, this happens when key moving averages get broken (50,200) in the stock market, and this has been the reason for the rise in M's IMHO. Remember, during the later half of 2003, the money supply started to fall, drastically, even as the stock market soared, and many held this meant the economy was contracting, yet money held in money funds dropped, as investors poured cash into the markets. Money is hot, and its always moving through the pipelines of the economy to rest in some resivour. Right now, money held in retail money funds is rising, and it had been steadily falling.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page15.pdf

Since our economy is based on a credit bubble and its continued expansion, I would advise tracking the bank loans and credit, rather than money supply, as any major contraction in this indicator means the credit bubble expansion is at risk of reversing. Already credit generated by the Mortgage Bankers is contracting as others have noted.
Belgian
(06/05/2004; 15:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121813)
Cruel oil....
The whole world knows extremely well how unbelievable "dependent" we are from the ME-oil under the sand ! This has enormous consequences and they are increasing dramatically, at present, and even more so, the further we advance into the future.

Don't have any doubts anymore about the EURO and dollar-factions, competing for their part of the responsibility over the remaining reserves, flow and pricing !!! All the bureaus for strategic studies and planning, have this item on top of their drawing tables.

The house of Saud has been moving away (is moving further away) from a more than 50 years close (traditional) alliance with the US and its dollar. The Sauds (and others) are calling the EU & Co to take over, gradually. The EU is still hesitant and doesn't want to break up to that point with its US' ties. This, to explain WHY the Gold-oil-dollar-euro, thing isn't proceeding faster !!! The Iraq unilateral occupation has been complicating things and most probably was the reason why the occupation had to take place under whatever pretext.

But, finally there must come a solution to the Iraqi situation and the ME as a whole. The EU & Co, are very busy to decrease their enormous dependance on the ME-oil, through diversification (Libya/Russia for example).
Putting a complicated strategy into place is taking time before the final and decisive move (EURO > oil) can be made. Like a game of chess.

The US acted too fast on the occupation move and was forced to do it unilaterally, with the help of anti-EURO UK. Germany and France (+ Spain now) will not be co-operative in an exit strategy for the US. Italy can put more weight on its importance within the EU, by having chosen to flirt with the occupier of Iraq.

Etc, etc...

Simply trying to help in understanding WHY it all takes sooooo (relatively) long to have our Gold floated !
Thoughts on this theory are warmly welcomed.
mikal
(06/05/2004; 15:27:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121814)
ECB member targets oil
ECB
SOFIA, June 5 (Reuters) - ECB council member Nicholas Garganas said on Saturday high global oil prices posed a greater risk to inflation than to economic growth, as so-called "second round effects" could bleed into wage demand.
Garganas said simulations from the OECD, the IMF, and other global institutions showed inflation as the greater potential problem than economic growth."
Link and comments to follow...
mikal
(06/05/2004; 15:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121815)
ECB
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1086468571nL05549617&tit=ECB Re: "simulations from the OECD, the IMF and other global institutions showed inflation the greater risk than economic growth"
As real growth globally is largely
diverted to unproductive speculative, military and government expenditures and continued malinvestment
steals from the future, the inflation cancer is grossly understated most everywhere.
Inflation presents the choicest target, along with oil, for global bankers to focus
policy. They must feel rate hikes in the eurozone are inevitable and good for the euro besides.
Henri
(06/05/2004; 16:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121816)
$10 Kiwi
Eyeing the new $10 Kiwi gold coin with the one ring. Even considering the gold content way overpriced at $1500+ NZD

Greetings from Queenstown, Milford Sound drive from Queenstown worth trading an ounce or two for.
Great Albino Bat
(06/05/2004; 18:33:05 MDT - Msg ID: 121817)
I don't know about you, but Trichet sounded rather confused...

I read through some of Trichet's comments when grilled about the response of the ECB to higher oil prices.

There is an intellectual error which permeates modern "economics" as taught, and which is truly not economics at all. More on that some other time, perhaps.

The error has been introduced, and is now pandemic, by the deliberate confusion of the term "inflation" to mean a rise in prices, when a rise in prices can be only a manifestation of something else.

In other words, "inflation" (the rise in prices) is the puddle, but the cause of the puddle is the leak in the roof. The leak in the roof is in our times, almost always printing more money through credit expansion.

If oil prices are rising due to increasing demand or increasing scarcity or both, this is not a monetary phenomenon. Of course, massive printing of money can ALSO affect prices of oil due to the depreciation of the monetary unit. But we have to take into account that the price of oil may - and probably will - continue to rise as we go into this century, quite aside from effects of monetary policy.

But, since the gods of our era are the Central Bankers, Trichet is supposed to know everything and have a solution for everything. Otherwise, what is he a god for? Gods are supposed to solve everything. That's their job description.
So Trichet waffled around this question about what to do about rising oil prices and ECB interest rates. Sounded confused or wishing he was out of there!

How refreshing it would be, for Mr. Trichet to say, "Well, we really do not know what to do. Oil is scarce and going to get scarcer. I guess we better realize that. The ECB can do nothing to improve that situation. Thank you."

As for "price stability", that dogma of the ECB. This is also a myth. In a market economy, there can be no price stability, because the preferences of the consumers are constantly changing. Sometimes they want some things, then they want others more urgently. Prices change, some go down, so go up. Stability is found only in death. I guess the ECB talks about "price stability" because it is a simple thing to say, and the brute masses can only understand a couple of words at a time.

What no one in our age will mention is: LIMITS. Humanity in our age does not want to hear about limits. And yet, limits are a fact. We do not live forever. We cannot be perfectly happy. Along with some joy in our lives, all of us must feel limits in the way of pain, frustration, defeat, loss and finally death. But, we don't want to hear about that. We want our politicians to sing to us that "all be well, all will be well, borrow and spend, borrow and spend. Vote for me."

Gold prepares us for limits. Two and two will make four - someday. Someday, the limits will be reached. Have some gold handy for that day. The grasshoppers, ah yes, the grasshoppers...

The GAB
Dollar Bill
(06/05/2004; 19:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121818)
.,.
http://earth.prohosting.com/~jswift/engdahl.htmlThanks ge.
Dollar Bill
(06/05/2004; 19:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 121819)
.,.
melting pot, those counterpunch guys are liars.
"insiders" told me.
MK
(06/05/2004; 19:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121820)
Ronald Reagan
The Gipper is gone - June 5, 2004.
93 years of age.
Gandalf the White
(06/05/2004; 19:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121821)
Questions about the Linked "chart" <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10I have been "out of touch" for a while, and was just now able to check out the US$ chart for Friday, ----WOWSERS !!
Can anyone tell me what happened between 8 and 9 am. in New York ?
Does this make you wish to hold your hard earned "savings" in US$ or -- LIKE the GAB, in PHYSICAL YELLOW ?
The Hobbits fully agree with the GAB !
GET the YELLOW soon !
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/05/2004; 23:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 121822)
Peace of mind, 24/seven
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Liberty Head
(06/05/2004; 23:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 121823)
The Gold Standard Play
http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/gp4.htm"In the large scheme of things, the Greenspan experiment of 1994 will be worth the costs if it contributes toward the movement back to a gold standard. It can do this by firmly closing out any notion that a currency can be strengthened by higher credit costs."
-Jude Wanniski
---------------------------

This is precisely the dilemma we are now faced with as the season of rising rates is upon us. If the dollar does not strengthen as the IR rises, like it or not, the demand for a return to a gold standard will gain momentum.
Wanniski argues gold would be fixed in the range of $350 to $400.
Such a scenario may take several more years to play out, if ever.
In the meantime, the POG will have gone stratospheric.
So accumulate gold, get a huge bag of popcorn and on with the show.

Best Wishes
ge
(06/06/2004; 00:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121824)
(No Subject)
@ Cavan Man

I have learned a lot at this site. Buying physical gold appears to be the only exit strategy for individuals. Agree with that 100 %.

@ Belgian

I think many people are beginning to get a feel of the tempo of the US movements. The crisis can be resolved by high oil prices where oil is sold only in dollars. Solution is implemented militarily because therein lies the comparative advantage. Military operations are triggered by an event. The event is dramatic; it has movie like qualities. Men become extremely emotional after the event.

If this formulation were true, then, the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq would not be a singular isolated episode, but an initial one in a string of episodes. Surfing the internet, I find many people set up for another event. "Terrorist" activities against Iraqi and Saudi oil infrastructure, and the media reporting oil making new highs set up the public for an increase in oil prices.

The decay of the empires used to take centuries. In modern times events move quicker, but, what is a decade or two in this process? Moreover, the relative calm in between the events is good. Who would like to see a Roman soldier in front of his door saying; "Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war"?
Cometose
(06/06/2004; 00:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 121825)
Gandalf
THere were several reports that happened on Friday ....
One of them was the Jobs (non farm payrolls) Report (came in at 248,000 / Goldilox liked it ) and there was Unemployment and some others . Based on the time I think it was the first //the jobs report .....When the number was released , I am informed that the Dollar Spiked and then just as quickly fell out of bed....Your chart shows it pretty well...
Belgian
(06/06/2004; 01:49:06 MDT - Msg ID: 121826)
About "Stability"...(GAB)
Up until now, the idea of a dynamic stability was concepted in a semi-fixed (contained) goldprice and floating currencies, around it ! Next will be the other way around...a floating goldprice (FreeGold) and currencies, trying to float as less as possible around (with) the goldprice.

Currencies should all compete with the stability of Gold that is non monetary tied. But the world's monetarists prefere to "fix" (paralyse) Gold and juggle with their currencies, without anchoring them at the fixed Gold.

THAT'S WHY YOU SEE THOSE OBSCENE LOW GOLDPRICES, TODAY !!!

We have been running away, further and further, from stability (unworkable-unrealistic goldstandard) to increasing lability.

THAT'S WHY GOLD HAD TO BE PAPERIZED !!!

The absurd low goldprice of today HAS a much bigger reason (purpose) than simply to continue the semi-fixed (containing) function :

1/ There must be a very good reason WHY the volume of paper-gold-derivatives has been inflated, with the euro in sight !!!

2/ This results in a POG that completely lost ALL its functions !!!

3/ It is no co-incidence that other derivative-volumes are further exploding with the idle hope that these "insurances"
(hedges) will be able to cover (gigantic) loses. If one is of the firm opinion that risks are low,...one takes a minimum precautionarry insurance.

The abysmal and continue inflation of the derivatives-volume, gold-derivatives included of course, are nothing else than the "insider" admittance that we have reached a Big Game Over !!! The sole purpose and goal of the hyper inflation of the gold-derivative-volume...is making "DELIVERY" *impossible* at the final day of reckoning !!! Delivery of PHYSICAL GOLD, that at that day will be recognised as the REAL hedge !!! But first, the derivative-volume must be inflated at a high enough level and secondly be made un-profitable...not insuring anymore.
One's increased exposure to the ever rising risks is NOT,...cannot be,... covered by the insurance (hedgeing) companies, already in virtual default.

The relative immobile POG is steadily taking away (eroding) the "trading value" of the enormous mass of gold-derivatives ! Not funny...rather frighthening for those who have a lot to cover (hedge). In the mean time, the super inflation of the dollar-currency needs to increase and we landed in the impossibility to hedge the inevitably coming hyper-price-inflations.

GAB : The stability of the euro lies in the fact that the euro (system) is ready for this outcome !!! The ECB's m.t.m. thing !

NOT letting Gold, to do enough "floating", is taking away its performance capacity. We all see and undergo price-inflation and the POG is NOT compensating. Same goes for the IRs, wich should already be above 8% !

The purpose (goal) of the euro gold faction is to "block" the $-gold hedge markets ! Propagate gold-sale-fear (CBs-France-Germany-Italy) and the POG is easely kept frozen !
The gold-derivatives will not support the dollar anymore (low POG=strong $). See how the $-exchange rate (degree of support) evolves.

GAB : The more unstable the dollar becomes, the more stable the euro (and its pricing) will look and be in comparaison.

It is this management that makes those CBANKERS SO POWERFULL AND IMPORTANT.

Greenspan says as little as possible about the infernal volume of derivatives !!! Listen to what they "don't" want to talk about (cfr. Trichet-oil). That's where the real importances are hidden.

Derivatives are NOT hedges-insurances, BUT ARE IN FACT THE REAL RISK !!! The whole hedging-affair was not invented/promoted by the shrimps, but it are the financial whales that see/know the end is near and tried to find a way out with as less damage possible. They had no choice and that's why they had to make that mistake !


Deep behind the goldprice-behavior, is an immense ocean of evolving fundamentals that are invisible and confusing in the little glimpses we occasionally are catching. That's why I liked Trurl's conclusion so much : Gold is for jewelry and paper is for investment ! What a farce...and herewith we thank the establishments for this Golden present to wich ANOTHER has been leading us. Amen bro. Back to my little garden on this very sunny sundaymorning.
Belgian
(06/06/2004; 02:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 121827)
@ge
It is good that we stick to the elaboration of no other wars than the "Gold wars", overhere. But, indeed Sir...there are many other, wars-fights-struggles, that are growing out there. The whole thing is inter-connected. A very, very natural and cyclic phenomenon.
My most important lessons do come from watching how things do evolve in nature and how man tries to manipulate nature.
Regards B.
Toolie
(06/06/2004; 02:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121828)
Max Rabbitz (6/5/04; 08:00:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 121804)
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1597According to McHugh:
Bonds have benefited from all the M-3 being injected. That's how money gets into the system - the Fed buys bonds in exchange for electronic money, created from the deep inner world of the black box. Bonds could go either way. With all the M-3 devaluing the dollar, foreign investors could not only not buy, but could dump Treasuries. So foreigners sell Treasuries and the Fed and every US government agency buys them. This is a manipulated market at this time, so forecasts are as good as future Federal Reserve Notes. The chart is ugly on its own merits, with the 50 day MA looking like it wants to dive below the 200 day MA. Tonight they sleep together. The retracement so far has been a Fibonacci 38.2 percent of the March to May mini-crash. Should an equity event unfold, bonds could rally all the way back up to recent highs.
Topaz
(06/06/2004; 04:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121829)
Bonds Oil etc.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=CL1%21&s=GC1%21&s=TYXY&s=DX1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWDouble weakness in DX and Bonds seems odd here but if the week begins with a Bond rally all things will be equal. Gold continues to fall short but will prove a good trade as long as the $ continues it's decline imo.
Dollar Bill
(06/06/2004; 09:06:41 MDT - Msg ID: 121830)
.,.
uh, lets see, the US "empire" goes down, then, the euro boys get thier turn to run deficeits, since they have the reserve currency, they are duty bound to be the army of the world, they keep swallowing countries to join thier "union", they become the big dogs, and since they are human, they are the same --or worse-- men than the US men.........so lets see, big change........we are back in "empire" again, only it is run by the "enlightened" europeans I suppose.
Really, there is no road to heaven on earth. Certainly the euro boys dont know the way.
Great Albino Bat
(06/06/2004; 11:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 121831)
Dollar Bill...looks like that to me...long road ahead...

Tweedledum and tweedle dee, you might say.

One fails, the other takes its place. Lincoln did say, "You can fool some of the people all of the time." I'd say, "you can fool MOST of the people all of the time." That's all the powers that require, to keep their enslaving process alive.

But, something may happen. Something always does happen, in History. There will be an accident, a miscalculation, and we shall have a surprise.

We have to take into account that the forces that restore equilibrium to international trade flows are increasingly pressing for release. Gold held these forces in equilibrium, nearly perfectly, one hundred years ago. Today, there is no mechanism that automatically restores equilibrium in trade, because there is no limit to dollar creation, and everyone considers that delivery of a dollar constitutes PAYMENT, which of course it is not. Only the counter delivery of some merchandise, service, or GOLD, could be considered payment. Not a dollar which is a "voucher" for a debt.

So, this process going on in the world cannot just be shifted around. The international flows of trade must be brought into equilibrium by gold, or sustained further by war. War has its costs, too, and adds to disequilibrium, so ultimately, warfare is inefficient - in my opinion, anyway.

Sabre-rattling with seven carrier groups at sea - mark of desperation, in my opinion. Big changes coming in the political scene - another miscalculation has been introduced by the present war.

Prepare for miscalculations in high places, with your own stock of gold! Buy from our generous hosts!

Some much ramblings from the GAB. Excuse please.

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(06/06/2004; 12:33:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121832)
THANKS, to Sir Cometose and Sir Topaz !!! <;-)
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=CL1%21&s=GC1%21&s=TYXY&s=DX1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThanks, Sir Cometose, for the info on the US$ "CRASH" yesterday. I knew someone here could advise me.
---
AND --- Thank you Sir Topaz for those four Charts at the LINK above:
Topaz (6/6/04; 04:36:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 121829)

--- I am presently very busy in the design of a new "home" for 240,000 "friends of Smeagol" and have been using one of the many advanced computer design and drafting programs. In that effort, the "mirror image" technique is often used, AND I quickly SEE the same, in the two Charts of the US$ and the POG at your LINK. Look for yourself!!!!!
<;-)
Old Yeller
(06/06/2004; 13:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121833)
Doctor Stool on McHugh and his M3 observations
http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5579
"Misinformation"'says the good doctor,I agree,McHugh is in over his head.
DryWasher
(06/06/2004; 13:02:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121834)
G.A.B. (msg#: 121831) Not Ramblings, but Words of Wisdom.

Sir G.A.B wrote in part:
"We have to take into account that the forces that restore equilibrium to international trade flows are increasingly pressing for release. Gold held these forces in equilibrium, nearly perfectly, one hundred years ago. Today, there is no mechanism that automatically restores equilibrium in trade, because there is no limit to dollar creation, and everyone considers that delivery of a dollar constitutes PAYMENT, which of course it is not. Only the counter delivery of some merchandise, service, or GOLD, could be considered payment. Not a dollar which is a "voucher" for a debt.

So, this process going on in the world cannot just be shifted around. The international flows of trade must be brought into equilibrium by gold, or sustained further by war."

DryWasher Comment:
In my opinion the above message distills the essence of the economic importance of Gold in the world today in a clear and understandable way.
If only we could find a way to drive the understanding, which flows from that message, into the heads of the great masses we would have taken the first giant step to restoring Gold to it's rightful role in the affairs of mankind, and perhaps also to the achievement of the goals of lasting peace and prosperity.
Great Albino Bat
(06/06/2004; 13:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121835)
Dry washer: your comments

My humble thanks.

The GAB
spotlight
(06/06/2004; 13:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 121836)
Possible reason for the Feds masive infussions
Comment:
A while back I was writing about a possible failed US bond auction. Then, because of statements from Alan Greenspan, that in unusual circumstances, he would buy the long term bonds, I cited that as a preempting of a bond auction failure. Shortly afterwards, interest rates spiked upwards. Shortly after that, Japan started printing trillions of yen for the purpose of buying US bonds. This kept their currency weak so American consumers could continue to enjoy low Japanese prices. It also kept US interest rates low. Since Japan recently announced it would cease proping up the dollar and US bonds,the fed has flooded the banking system with "liquidity." Now, there may be an entirely logical explanation for this massive infusion of funds other than the ones circulating. It may be that foreigners have stopped purchasing our bonds in the quantities the US is accustomed to. If that is the case, perhaps the Fed has filled the gap by buying the bonds to prevent interest rates from rising, which could cause all kinds of unwanted negative results for the economy. That could explain the massive injections of funds into the banking system. It would also mean that we are on the printing press to pay our bills. So far, no one knows for sure what the reason is for such large increases. However,if it should be learned that the Fed is forced to buy unwanted bonds, we could be in for a long delayed monetary crises. CN.
Smeagol
(06/06/2004; 14:10:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121837)
(No Subject)
to Ssir Gandalf:
Oi, that musst be a VERY BIG house, Sir Gandalf. 240,000! We didn't know we had ssso many 'friends'...hmmm...sss... perhaps we could convince each of them to make a one dollar donation to the 'Smeagold Fund' (green-eyed toothy grin). And then, of course, we would promptly show up at the Castle Gold-window and- Hush, precious! Don't TELL them! Ach!

Ssir GAB says "...The international flows of trade must be brought into equilibrium by gold, or sustained further by war."

It sure sseems to us that hisstory REPEATEDLY shows the correct course to take...the firsst, but that's never taught in school, and Men don't live long enough to remember from one generation to the next the glorious empty promises, and the much more bitter taste afterwards, of all the failed fiat schemes, and are thus easily led REPEATEDLY into the second, over and over...

...sssigh...this is why Smeagol will remain hopeful yet sskeptical of truly freed Gold, until we sees it.

S.
Druid
(06/06/2004; 17:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121838)
Smeagol (6/6/04; 14:10:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 121837)

"It sure sseems to us that hisstory REPEATEDLY shows the correct course to take...the firsst, but that's never taught in school, and Men don't live long enough to remember from one generation to the next the glorious empty promises, and the much more bitter taste afterwards, of all the failed fiat schemes, and are thus easily led REPEATEDLY into the second, over and over...

...sssigh...this is why Smeagol will remain hopeful yet sskeptical of truly freed Gold, until we sees it."

Druid: Sir Smeagol, it would be very difficult to disagree but disagree I must. The Internet has destroyed the monopoly and control of information in our generation. Too many people are marching along the path toward the concept freedom from many different directions, and during this trip, will learn root cause analysis of why they can no longer afford the lifestyle they have been accustomed too within this very controlled paper "money" system. There is nothing like touching a very hot stove to gain a better understanding about the nature of heat.
Goldendome
(06/06/2004; 18:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121839)
James Sinclair: Continueing Warnings on the Mid-east.
http://www.jsmineset.com/home.aspJames Sinclair (my interpretation) usually talks the paper gold market: futures, options, etc. But today, he speaks below (in his usually shrill warning tones) of owning physical first: if nothing else. He has been extremely negative of late about the Iraqui situation and what he fears will lead to the eclipse of the United States.
...Some of his comments from todays message...

"Only gold will protect you from what is coming. Forget the fools trading over-the-counter derivatives which is another serious crime committed against humanity.

Forget the nut bags of the COMEX who can't see the forest for the trees. Forget the technical guys who have been the worst enemies within and outside of the Gold Community. Forget getting rich quick. Forget the use of margin on anything gold. For your sake, the sake of your children and for all those you hold dear, own real gold first.

For all those that depend on you, do everything possible to reduce your debt and build your liquidity in the form of one ounce gold coins. This is infinitely worse than the 1968 to 1980 experience. This is no longer a drill. This is the real thing."
Mr Gresham
(06/06/2004; 19:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121840)
Legacy
http://zfacts.com/p/318.htmlGot grandkids?
OZ
(06/06/2004; 20:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 121841)
From JSMineset sunday evenings
Only gold will protect you from what is coming. Forget the fools trading over-the-counter derivatives which is another serious crime committed against humanity.

Forget the nut bags of the COMEX who can't see the forest for the trees. Forget the technical guys who have been the worst enemies within and outside of the Gold Community. Forget getting rich quick. Forget the use of margin on anything gold. For your sake, the sake of your children and for all those you hold dear, own real gold first.

For all those that depend on you, do everything possible to reduce your debt and build your liquidity in the form of one ounce gold coins. This is infinitely worse than the 1968 to 1980 experience. This is no longer a drill. This is the real thing
Druid
(06/06/2004; 20:49:04 MDT - Msg ID: 121842)
Oil for Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/powers060304.html"There has been a great deal of attention given to the impact of high oil prices on the US economy in recent months. We have seen nearly every media outlet carry a story about how high gasoline prices are taking money out of consumer's pockets and how this will lead to slower economic growth. What the media is once again failing to understand is the simple fact that climbing energy prices will accelerate the downward spiral of the US dollar. The collapse of US dollar hegemony will be felt in nearly every corner of world over the next decade. Perhaps no other industry will be impacted more by the dollar's decline than the energy industry.

Since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, which created the Euro zone in 1992, there has been much speculation that the oil exporting world would one day consider pricing oil in euros. The world did not have to wait long after the birth of the euro in 1999 to witness Iraq's pricing its oil in euros. Australian environmentalist Geoffrey Heard provided some unique insight into fellow OPEC members' reaction to Iraq's decision to price its oil for export in euros in a 2003 article entitled "Not Oil, but Dollars vs. Euros":

"In 1999, Iraq, with the world's second largest oil reserves, switched to trading its oil in euros. American analysts fell about laughing; Iraq had just made a mistake that was going to beggar the nation. But two years on, alarm bells were sounding; the euro was rising against the dollar, Iraq had given itself a huge economic free kick by switching.

Iran started thinking about switching too; Venezuela, the 4th largest oil producer, began looking at it and has been cutting out the dollar by bartering oil with several nations including America's bete noir, Cuba. Russia is seeking to ramp up oil production with Europe (trading in euros) an obvious market.

The greenback's grip on oil trading and consequently on world trade in general, was under serious threat. If America did not stamp on this immediately, this economic brushfire could rapidly be fanned into a wildfire capable of consuming the US's economy and its dominance of world trade."

After the US invasion of Iraq, the country's oil exports were priced in US dollars. While Mr. Heard may have overestimated the role of the euro in the war in Iraq, there is no doubt that the falling US dollar has raised concerns over whether it is prudent for oil exporting countries to price a significant portion of their GDP in a depreciating currency.

While many have argued that pricing oil in euros will lead to higher oil prices, not much attention has been given to the possibility of oil being priced in gold. While this might seem like a fringe idea to the masses, those who have an appreciation for gold's place in many Muslim oil exporting countries believe the pricing of oil in gold is inevitable."
*******************************************************

Druid: Slowly, perception is changing, one analyst at a time. "The Deal" brought to you by the good folks at www.USAGOLD.com and coming to a reality TV program near you.

Gandalf the White
(06/06/2004; 21:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121843)
WOWSERS This may be a GOLDEN start to the new WEEK ! <;-)
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1the POG chart is headed in the right direction !
and the next chart will show the reason WHY !!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/06/2004; 21:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121844)
The US$ chart at the above LINK ---
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10is showing an opening DOWN GAP !
hold onto the YELLOW as the command of DIVE, DIVE, DIVE is not far away.
<;-)
Waverider
(06/06/2004; 21:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 121845)
Sir Gandalf....
Yes - the Euro has broken above the 200 day moving average at 1.2333 - let's hope it holds. Keep up that supply of tender Roo meat! Cheers,
Waverider
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/06/2004; 22:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121846)
Exercise your savings decisions to enjoy personal sovereignty and security
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations?

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

mikal
(06/06/2004; 22:04:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121847)
Sunken treasures recycle with the tides
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P85415.asp MSN Money - Contrarian Chronicles
The Calm Before the Market Storm
Bill Fleckenstein

DRAT! Those pesky $@&*% coins!
Always have a habit of washing up on shore
just when you least want them to! All hands
on deck... Aye, aye sir! Secure the anchor,
get polly off the rigging, we've run aground!
Trim your sails.
Over the side and all ashore.
Breakout the metal detectors...

Goldendome
(06/06/2004; 23:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121848)
Where do the support pilings placed?
So--Sir Gandalf: What do they throw the money at first? The dollar, to hold it up? The bond markets, to hold them up? Gold and Silver,to hold them down? Or Oil, to hold it down? ...Did I miss any?
Topaz
(06/07/2004; 00:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121849)
alt $ PoG.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The Gold (Paper) price is really underperforming in here and as a "trade" looks better and better ... IF we can expect a shock related rebound, you'd expect PoG to move decidedly ABOVE the currency line!
My consern is the PAPER nature of price discovery is slowly but surely sinking in and the weakness is indicative of moves "out of" this market and "into" either FX or Phys.

Good to note Mr Gold finally coming around too.
Ned
(06/07/2004; 03:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121850)
To the monetary astute.......
I think spotlight's post of 121836 needs to be examined.

Anyone with comments? TIA.
Spartacus
(06/07/2004; 05:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121851)
Mahathir :Use yen as East Asia's trading currency
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/6/3/nation/8124886&sec=nation
---In his speech entitled "East Asia Community and the Role of Japan" at Keio University Dr Mahathir......suggested that the Japanese currency be used to replace the US dollar as the trading currency for East Asia and in return the region agreed on a trading currency backed by gold.

"East Asian countries need not have an East Asian currency for domestic use as the euro is in the European Union. To give it reference value against currencies of countries of East Asia, we can base the East Asia Trading Currency on gold."

Gold can fluctuate in value in any currency but the fluctuation would never be very wide," he said, adding that such a trading currency would be more stable than the US dollar, euro and even the yen. ---

OvS
(06/07/2004; 05:52:46 MDT - Msg ID: 121852)
The Future of the Euro.
I'm reading on the Sinclair site that our
government is pulling troops our of
Germany to fill-in in Iraq. What are our
troops still doing in Germany? Protect
against Croatia?
I read somewhere else that the Europeans
want to create a strikeforce similar to
Nato but our government is against it?
Can the Euro really develop as suggested
here and other places when Germany, the
heart of Europe is still "occupied"?
Politics. Lies, counterlies, camouflage,
it's a grand stage to be watched with
interest and amusement. You take it too
personal and you want to turn into an
ostrich...Cheers. OvS
misetich
(06/07/2004; 05:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121853)
goldenboy (6/4/04; 13:52:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 121791)
The most worrisome fear is a continually high budget deficit in the US for the next 5-10 years, which would further erode the US abilitiy to attract the necessary inflows to keep the game going.

The second, is a continually China/Orient economic growth which would keep historical investments at "home" rather than flowing to the US and thus funding the Trade Deficit

IF the above scenarios, materialize, and the odds are more than 50% for BOTH - the US $ devaluation will accelerate and quite frankly don't want to "crystal ball" events that will/would unfold in such a case. By that time the gold bull express - part IV would be in full flight.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/07/2004; 06:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 121854)
GM doubles bet on China with $3bn investment
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1086445459683&p=1012571727088Snip:

"There is 100 per cent agreement from all industry observers that China will one day be the biggest auto market in the world," said Mr Murtaugh, speaking at a press conference on the eve of the opening of the Beijing car show.
......................
However, the fast growth of the first quarter began slowing in May because of the central government's credit squeeze, which had forced banks to cut car loans.

Christian Weidermann, the head of financial services for GM in China, said that 4 to 5 per cent of purchases of GM vehicles in recent weeks had been funded by car loans, compared with nearly 20 per cent earlier this year.

Car buyers have also been delaying purchases in the expectation that prices will fall substantially in coming months as a result of new capacity and intensified competition.
*****************
Misetich

It appears that CHINA's policies to curb overheated sectors is WORKING -

The "credit squeeze" has slowed down loans considerably - The overall effect of this so-called "slowdown" in CHINA has done little to curb high commodity and energy prices worldwide.

Higher inflation expectations are being fuelled....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
OvS
(06/07/2004; 06:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 121855)
Japanese Central Bank more honest then the Fed?
Strange to hear that Mahathir proposes
the Yen as central to Asia. Over a year
ago I proposed that the Japanese are
doing much better than they let us on
to believe. Keo University is where the
aristocrats send their young sons, so
he got the ear of the right people. But
does he really trust that the Japanese,
with the discipline of gold backing, will
not fall into the same trap as the Fed
and our US government?
Doesn't history teach that there are
many ways to circumvent the original
intent?
Gold has its power because under changing
conditions even the most trusted people
become self-preserving and don't keep their
word. Long live gold. And it does. Cheers.
OvS
Waverider
(06/07/2004; 07:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121856)
Is the world's oil running out fast?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm"If you think oil prices are high at $40 a barrel then wait till they are four times that much... "Oil is far too cheap at the moment," says Mr Simmons. "The figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking." Much of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO's) predictions stem from the calculations of Dr Campbell. His work on oil reserves has long suggested that many official oil data are either flawed estimates or at worst downright lies. "For the time being there is no spare capacity. But we expect demand to increase by the fourth quarter of the year by three million barrels a day." "If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very difficult -we will have difficult times. They must invest." Asking other delegates - admittedly supporters of the peak oil theory - whether such a steep increase was feasible, the answers were unambiguous: "absolutely out of the question," "completely impossible," and "3 million barrels - never, not even 300,000." And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one."

Waverider: We heard it here first from Black Blade.
SteveH
(06/07/2004; 07:54:07 MDT - Msg ID: 121857)
Inverse relationship
Rule of Desire:

The more gold investors desire the price of gold to rise, the more the effort to contain the price of gold.

Rule of Gold Investment:

The greater the excitement that the price of gold is rising, the more the forces amassed against the price of gold rising, the more likely it is to fall precipitously.

Rule of Sanity:

The more one buys gold to augment one's portfolio as a hedge, the less the apparent benefit from that investment.

Rule of Contrary:

The more the talk about gold's value, the less gold appears to have value.

Rule of Euro:

The higher the Euro, the higher the price of gold.

Rule of Dollar:

The higher the dollar, the lower the price of gold.

Rule of Impossibility:

It is impossible to have a high price for the Euro and a high price for the dollar as long as gold exists.

Rule of High Euro and High Dollar:

Get rid of gold as a monetary asset.

Rule of Gold news:

The higher the price of gold, the more negative the news on gold.

Rule of selling gold:

Sell gold when Joe Sixpack is buying gold.

Rule of Gold truth:

Change the rules as soon as any rules are taken as gospel.

Rule of buying gold:

Buy gold when the price is so low, the news is so bad, and the dollar is so high.

Rule of Optimism:

Watch Larry Kudlow on CNBC.

Rule of Gold Rules:

Disregard all of the above as soon as it is true.

slingshot
(06/07/2004; 08:47:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121858)
Oil production to decline.
Oil at $183 a barrel.Far Out,Man! Lets just take half of that around $90. Get yourself a bike or do a lot of walking.
At $45 we are about to stroke out. It is not the price I am looking at it is payment for the oil. Keeping in mind that oil and Gold are not renewable resources, hard to find and extract from the earth. At what point in price does the oil producer switch to payment in gold instead of Euros or dollars. Could it be when he realises that there is not enough above ground gold for payment? If the gold at Fort Knox, and West Point is not owned by the US and is just held for future transactions of other countries? Then where will the US get the gold for oil. Not Me! How about the Miners? Give them the great price of $42.00. Oh, $50 face value.
Lets talk Fertilizer. Oil based. Gee, do I buy gas today or food?
Slingshot----------------<>
Great Albino Bat
(06/07/2004; 09:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121859)
Ned, I agree with your ref. to Spotlight's #121836...

We have not read enough commentary on the CAUSE of this huge spike in M3.

Is the US Fed now forced to buy US Govt. bonds? Worst possible news, if correct!

For my part, I should appreciate commentary from savvy posters and links to relevant articles by honest experts.

This subject is of great importance, indeed. The Fed buying up of government bonds is the last and final act before collapse of the currency. Is this happening?

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(06/07/2004; 10:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121860)
Sir Goldendome's Question !
Goldendome (6/6/04; 23:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 121848)
support pilings placed?
---
LOOKS to me as if they are PUMPING the S&P options to bouy-up the STOCK MARKET !!!
BUT, the POG is NOT taking the "Head" fake !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/07/2004; 10:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 121861)
The US$ Chart looks like the HOSPITAL CHART of a deceased ---
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10FLAT LINE !
THAT has not been seen for a VERY LONG TIME !!!
The ESF has changed tactics from "PUMP" to "HOLD THE LINE".
GET the YELLOW while you may !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/07/2004; 10:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121862)
Thanks, Sir Topaz for the BEAUTIFUL chart !
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The overlay of the POG and the INVERSE of the US$ shows very well that the POG is headed "TO THE MOON" !
The ONLY thing that it does not tell, is WHEN !
Before or AFTER the Elections ?
<;-)
TownCrier
(06/07/2004; 11:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121863)
Fed policy
The Federal Reserve Trading Desk intervened in the open market today to add $9.5 billion in overnight money as the market in fed funds was trading slightly tighter (at 1.031 percent) than the Fed's target rate of 1%.

In light of the continuing liberality with cash infusions at rates remaining so close to 1 percent, I find it harder to buy into the market's belief that the FOMC might possibly be raising rates as soon as the June 29/30 meeting.

R.
Federal_Reserves
(06/07/2004; 12:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121864)
FED action/money pumping.
http://biz.yahoo.com/n/z/z0000.htmlSince Mid-May the FED has purchased nearly 5b in debt using coupon passes, thus monetizing it. The demand for debt (auctions) is very active this week as well. Rates have been rising to generate necessary demand.


Reuters
U.S. bill auction attracts only lukewarm demand
Monday June 7, 1:54 pm ET

NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - A U.S. government sale of three- and six-month Treasury bills on Monday attracted the weakest level of demand in weeks even though yields are near their highest for eighteen months.
Topaz
(06/07/2004; 13:15:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121865)
@Bat
Good morning GAB.
We are now in a Deflationary death spiral as of May 1.

Proverbially, Cap'n Greenspan has lashed himself to the tiller, turned the good ship US$ Buckaroo "harda starb'd" and is taking the full force of the Roaring Fourties on the nose as he attempts to go "round the Horn".
He's confident in his craft and the bunkers are full however below decks the crew are blithering and wailing "we'll all be rooned" as their fine china and cutlery is strewn this way and that with every lurch of the craft.
The first "positional FIX" will be Jun 30 as L/Bonds retrace to sub 5%, DX to sub 85 and Oil to sub 30 ... we'll revisit then, in the interim, at ANY point in time, his craft could go under and itself become a SUB ;-)
TownCrier
(06/07/2004; 13:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 121866)
In times of pressure, be aware of this tool in the war chest.
Sydney, June 7 (Dow Jones) - A rise in gold price volatility since the beginning of last year has led to a corresponding decrease in physical demand for the yellow metal, Societe Generale's investment banking unit said in a note issued Monday.

"Whether prices are rising or falling, periods of high volatility tend to stimulate 'paper' investors and freeze physical buying," SG said, adding that the impact on Indian importers has been well-known.

------------

Will you allow yourself to be frozen in your tracks, your (in)actions so easily manipulated by such an easy paper trick?

All the more reason to establish your primary physical position during these times of relative calm, and then let those headgames fall upon someone else.

R.
TownCrier
(06/07/2004; 14:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 121867)
However, here is a blurb in contrast to those SG's price/demand comments
As reported at the DMR and the USAGOLD Forum last Wednesday:

"According to a report by the World Gold Council, consumer demand for gold, including jewelry and retail investment, rose 12 percent to 681 tonnes in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year earlier, even though prices for the precious metal were hitting 15-year highs..."

Go figure. In the end, it has more to do with the wider context of the situation. Volatility by itself could freeze physical purchases, but when coupled with a currency in marked decline, ultimately it's more a case of 'All hands abandon ship!', seeking gold regardless of higher prices and the turbulent waves of price volatility.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/07/2004; 14:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 121869)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

----------
(excerpts)

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange edged back towards the upper reaches of its recent price channel Monday on light trade and fund interest spurred by the weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The most active Aug contract settled $2.80 higher at $394.50 per ounce.

Dealers reported very light activity levels throughout as players seemed content to linger on the sidelines and monitor the broader impact of the decline in the U.S. currency.

"There's really very little going on. The dollar is continuing its breakdown but that's not causing any excitement," said John Tyree...

...as Aug prices stalled at the $400 level recently fund interest is expected to remain light until that level is surpassed...

"Gold won't likely resurface on the funds' radars until some buy signals start ringingon their black box (trading) systems, and that won't happen until prices push through $400," said a dealer with a U.S. investment bank. "Until then, emphasis will remain on crude prices and the economic and geopolitical picture," he added...

------(click DMR link for access to full news)-----

Below is a sample of assorted (and sometimes bizarre) headlines from current USAGOLD Newswire:

U.S. stocks up on economy, oil, Reagan sentiment -- Borsa Italiana - News

COMEX gold closes up, lifted by dollar's retreat -- Reuters.co.uk - Breaking News

North American stock markets rally on strength in gold and base metals -- canada.com - Vancouver Sun

Inflation effect a money illusion -- Australian Financial Review - Money

Rates Increase in Treasury Bill Auction -- Lycos Finance - News
mikal
(06/07/2004; 14:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 121870)
Gold $ settles up
Monday's World Gold Prices
By The Associated Press
Selected world gold prices, Monday:
Hong Kong late: $393.25 up $5.50.
London morning fixing: $393.45 up $4.35.
London afternoon fixing: $393.60 up $4.50.
London late: $393.30 up $4.20.
Paris afternoon fixing: $386.99 up $3.64.
Zurich late afternoon: $392.45 up $4.00.
NY Handy & Harman: $393.60 up $5.30.
NY Handy & Harman fabricated: $425.09 up $5.73.
NY Engelhard: $394.92 up $5.31.
NY Engelhard fabricated: $414.67 up $5.58.
NY Merc. gold spot month Mon: $393.70 up $2.80.
NY HSBC Bank USA 4 p.m. Mon: $393.80 up $2.80.


mikal
(06/07/2004; 14:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 121871)
Link
http://www.gadsdentimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040607/APF/406070747&cachetime=5Link for story below (extracted from http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html).
Aristotle
(06/07/2004; 17:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 121872)
Miscellaneous responses, replies
Thanks, Belgian, your recent posts have put the frosting on my cake with a week of exceptionally good reading material.

Druid, thanks for your kind words a few weeks back, but I'm puzzled where you said you were thankful for my thick skin. I'm sure I'm as easily bruised as the next guy, and probably more than twice as easily frustrated by impenetrable shadows of incompetence.

Goldendome, I'm glad your fence-sitting friend was inspired to hop off and join me in my latest Gold purchase the week of May 12th. As I implied, at the time it may have seemed like an ugly game of catching a falling knife, but (if its not *too* soon to enjoy a little hindsight) the past few weeks gives us a nice smile for catching an eight-month low in the Gold price. Let's not be afraid to stick to our Gold-savings gameplan, guided (not least of all) by our firm moral compass, and do it again, eh?

OvS, in that same timeframe you razzed me about an apparent inconsistency in some comments where I had talked about taking the "sure thing" -- the bird in the hand-- while also mentioning that I had "mulled over an investment idea or two (ultimately rejecting them both)" before buying Gold with my available cash.

First of all, what is *inconsistent* about my decision to REJECT those investments in favor of buying more Gold instead? Are you fussing because I paused to CONSIDER them in the first place? Good grief... what sorta all black-and-white world are you living in? For the record, I've previously made it known within my wealth-management dogma there is indeed room to mindfully consider and pursue appropriate investments as an alternative to **100 percent devotion** to a personal Gold savings plan. How good is your understanding of the entrepreneurial spirit and cashflow dynamic? Let it suffice to say that the investments I had considered that day, which somehow got your tail into a twist, were for equipment needed in the pursuit of avenues I decided to reevaluate.

Sometimes it's better to put plans on hold snatch up the more attractive opportunities of the day.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Camel
(06/07/2004; 17:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121873)
Refineries
Often you hear it said that no new refineries have been built in this country since 1976 along with some vague reference to environmental restrictions, and from this one is to infer that the restrictions are preventing new refining capacity from being developed.

As usual there is another side to the story .

According to the Department of Energy

*************
"Total U.S. crude oil distillation capacity has increased substantially since 1990 (by more than 340,000 b/d) as a result of both conventional investments and debottlenecking investments. This capacity expansion was achieved even with the closing of 41 refineries with more than 1.1 million b/d of crude distillation capacity. As a result, capacity per operating refinery increased by 28 percent (to 97,060 b/d) over the 1990 to 1998 period."

*************

From a high of about 320 refineries in 1975 to about 140 today the refining industry has maintained its preferred level of output through a policy of gradual expansion of existing refineries instead of new construction. Moreover this was done explicitly by the oil industry to avoid compliance with the Clean Air Act of 1970, because all existing oil refineries were exempted from that Act .

It is also a common business practice in the industry to shut down some refineries so as to increase the profit margins of the others and many observers of the oil industry have stated that there has been an over supply of refining capacity for many years and this has caused the erosion of profit margins.

In more recent times construction of new refineries has moved offshore in joint ventures with various foreign entities but in reality these are little more than foreign subsidiaries of big US companies.

On a related topic; sometime during the late 70's a quiet Presidential decision was made to try to preserve as much of Americas remaining oil and gas as long as possible while drawing down the Mid-Eastern reserves. I can't prove this but I recall that it happened and there were several public statements to this effect by high ranking government officials at the time .

There are still fairly substantial pockets of oil and gas on some federal land and some offshore areas and there has in fact been a restrictive "go-slow" policy in place against hastily consuming these last remaining pockets. Our people are not complete fools. It has been made increasingly difficult if not impossible to get oil leases on some Federal land and in some portion of the offshore mainly around Florida.These leases are strictly monitored and only parceled out a little at a time as needed.

This is the policy that the oil industry people have so strongly opposed. The conservation of these last few remaining pools of oil and gas .The question is whether to open these up now and let them be quickly exhausted ,or stretch them out by reducing consumption through a new round of conservation.

In any case don't be looking for any big new oil and gas supplies coming out of Texas. According to Mat Simmons "new Texas gas wells decline by eighty-three per cent one year after drilling."



mikal
(06/07/2004; 18:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121874)
FannieMae and FreddieMacKruger running wild?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ekervik060704.htmlThis is the second or third major essay I've seen in the last two weeks which gives a unique opinion on where the M3 has been channeled. It predicts the demise of GSE's and severe fallout.
Black Blade
(06/07/2004; 19:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121875)
Refining Capacity and Imported Distillates

Thus far US refineries are operating flat out (96% utilization including those closed for maintenance and changeover to summer boutique gasoline and new diesel sulfur blends and regulations). Producing refineries must be in compliance for this year's regs as of June 1st. The sulfur reductions for diesel (including off-road construction and manufacturing � colored with red dye to be checked at state check points to avoid cheating for lower cost diesel � which will be eliminated in the next 7 years). Of course this means higher production and transport costs to be passed along to the consumer (that's us).

Imported gasoline and diesel fuels (a "by-product" for most refineries) have made up for the ever increasing and changing regs (local, state, and Federal). Most refining in the US is for plastics, petrochemical, feedstock of manufactured goods, etc.). Grades vary widely and refineries must be custom geared for that process. Right now Venezuela, Canada, Trinidad, and Tobago (and some from Mexico) are the major importers of refined product. Much of that won't last as lower petrol prices fall and refining for other markets and goods along with cheap labor will yield higher profit margins.

Shell is closing a 65,000 bbl/day refining operation in southern California and anti-hydrocarbon woman Sen. Babs "Boxcar" Boxer (D-CA) and others who called for closure of refineries and for alternative energy, now cry foul at the prospect. This particular refinery is antiquated and is barely marginal but its closure would create severe consequences for the massive slowly moving parking lots (in Kali they call them "freeways" � notice how infrequently the "car pool" lanes are utilized or the "mass transit" that is rarely used). The "Energy Bill" remains to be put into law to ease some energy misuse and increased exploitation of natural resources. The hold up is primarily the MTBE lawsuit immunity issue for refiners (once mandated by law as an oxygenated ingredient in many large population jurisdictions � including in Kali). The other hold up is the "Ethanol" mandate being held up by farm state legislators like Minority leader Tom Daschle (D-ND) where the oxygenated ingredient (and quite "drinkable" ethanol alcohol � aka "Ever Clear" � minus the 10% water content) would be required adding at least another 10-13 cents/per gallon of regular unleaded � most not going to the so-called "family farmer" but large scale industrial farmers like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and others. BTW, ANM execs and Japanese counterparts were caught in an FBI sting operation caught on tape and film setting prices for corn and other grain products a few years ago.

As far as ANWR and other high prospect areas are concerned we don't really know for sure. The only well drilled there was over 20 years ago by Chevron and the info is still held closely to the vest so to speak. Maybe it is another Prudhoe Bay and maybe a big dry hole. No one knows except perhaps a few inner circle types at Chevron and the DOE. Some Bering Sea sites were tried but were dry holes. The Naval Reserve site is still a fair producer while Prudhoe Bay has "peaked". Anyway, the extension on any ANWR capacity would be welcome as the infrastructure (pipeline, refrigeration units for mounts in the permafrost, heating units to mobilize the crude, etc.) would be wasted at this point if shutdown for several years if need for ANWR oil exceeded the vista of mosquito and black fly infested tundra on approximately 2,000 acres. Nevertheless, there are other proven high target areas for energy that remain "off-limits" due to hysteria that are being produced taking oil and NatGas from below untaxed government lands by fee land holders and state lands. The BLM is estimated to lose several hundred $millions in taxes and severance fees while the hydrocarbons are "sucked" out from under them and taken by the mineral rights holders of adjacent lands (couldn't happen to a bunch of nicer people IMO).

There are many known resources (not necessarily reserves � though that changes daily with the market price). The finding, drilling, and lifting costs may be prohibitive from day to the next and small fields (each with differing geological and physical properties) often determine the rate of exploitation. It can't be ramped up by "opening a spigot" as many people believe. The withdrawal of oil and NG must be done in a precise method and manner to achieve maximum exploitation. That is one reason alone why I find the Saudi claims of 2.5 million bbl/day increase ludicrous at the least and comical at best. OPEC has been cheating on production all along and yet more demand and competition emerges. Recent "jaw-boning" by the Saudi Oil and Minerals Minister as well as Wall Street's inept acceptance with geologic or physics knowledge has so far led to a minor temporary dip in oil prices. Meanwhile the other OPEC members are willing to "call the Saudi Minister's bluff"). Super-Giant Ghawar and other fields are in serious decline as are many other ME fields (especially the Kirkuk Fields in northern Iraq). Then there's the threat of terrorism, etc. BTW, Indonesia is being threatened with expulsion from OPEC because they cannot keep up with production and the decline rate there is so extreme.

Anyway, this is just the short version off the top of my head, as I gotta go to the gym for a couple of hours now. More info can be obtained from the "Oil and Gas Journal". Oh yeah, the southern Kali Shell refinery is only one of about seven scheduled to close this year due to the new regs, so increased production is meaningless without the refining capacity bottleneck (pipeline being another � note Arizona early this year when prices spiked due to an erupted pipeline even though the company cried for decades that just such a disaster would be � well, a disaster � it was as gasoline stations closed all over Phoenix and Tucson.

- Black Blade
Aristotle
(06/07/2004; 19:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121876)
Donnie's probably gonna hate me for quipping and quoting him outta context, but, hey, what's a fella to do?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040604/default.htmAlrighty then, so here goes...

The topic, Inflation.

The speaker, Fed Governor Donald Kohn.

The setting, Friday's National Economic Club luncheon.

The remarks:

"Inflation has picked up this year, and by enough to raise questions in the minds of some about whether it might be on a rising trend that poses a risk to price stability."


"The recent shift up in inflation can be seen not just in the price indexes but also in attitudes, anecdotes, and expectations."


"The current level of the federal funds rate will not be consistent, over time, with the objective of preserving price stability."


"Although inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, the stance of policy--measured either by interest rates or liquidity provision--is not connected in a direct and simple way to the rate of inflation. Individual prices are determined by supply and demand in the markets for goods and services, and the average of those prices by relationships of aggregate supply and demand."


"Had I been speaking to you just a year ago, you would have expected me to address the possibility of deflation and what the Federal Reserve might do either to head it off or to deal with it once interest rates had reached zero. In newspapers and in market reports, you would have read that the integration of China and India into the global trading system meant persistent excess supply of labor and products that would place downward pressure on wages and prices in the developed world for years to come. Now the concern has shifted to whether inflation is rising, and those earlier stories are frequently being turned on their heads. It is increasingly common to hear that strong demand for energy and other basic materials, importantly including demand from Asia, has been boosting inflation here."


"Quite a few prices have been pushed higher in recent quarters by special influences on the supply and demand for the specific products involved."


"Increases in commodity prices are typical as an expansion gathers momentum, but they have been unusually large in the current episode because of the synchronous strengthening here and overseas, especially in Asia. Petroleum prices have been under particular pressure, reflecting not only stronger demand but also risks that supplies could be constrained by terrorism or political disruption."


"The decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar over the past year or so has contributed to the rise in the price of imports in the United States."


"Commodities and imports are only a small part of what we consume, and changes in their prices as well as in the price of energy usually do not affect measured core consumer inflation very much. But the recent situation has been notable for the size and number of price shocks going in the same direction, so that even with limited pass-though of individual price movements, the total effect probably has been significant."


"Inflation expectations play a key role in price determination. Among other effects, a rise in inflation expectations tends to become self-fulfilling as people seek to protect themselves in the process of setting wages and prices."


"the federal funds rate cannot be held at its current level indefinitely if price stability is to be preserved."


"experience counsels caution. There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year."


"An examination of the variables believed to proxy for aggregate demand and potential supply can help to explain inflation and to forecast future price developments, and the concepts are integral to making monetary policy. But given our limited understanding of price determination, we must also keep a close watch on actual inflation outcomes."


"It took about twenty years to undo the effects on economic behavior of the inflationary episode of the 1970s."


Here's an idea. Read this to your children tonight as a bedtime story, but to keep the little ones from having nightmares, let me urge you to leave out the part at the end where Donnie confesses the Fed's, "limited understanding of price determination."

Gold. Get you some -- because you know, from the dirty little secret of its price-discovery gamesmanship, that it's truly THE Bargain of the Century. --- Aristotle
TheJuniorMiner
(06/07/2004; 19:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 121877)
Camel/refineries & natural gas

I followed the refinery market 8 years ago with the thought that it would be overwelmed by closures and growing demand. Needless to say I wore out on the idea and moved on after a few years. The industry has managed to put this off for 8 years or so and they might be able to stall this a while longer. If the US and Far East and India continue to grow and we dont get over SUV's soon, we may get a crises yet. So far ...just slightly higher prices and promises for relief around the next corner. This one can go either way from here on.....

The average decline rate for Conventional Natural Gas wells is around 10-15 %. Many in East Texas and Louisiana are in the 30%. I listen to dozens of Natural gas producers conference calls and no one has an 85 % problem. Possible the a mom and pop that fractures it and puts a pump on it can drain a well in a year but the average producer doesn't do that.

Black Blade has expounded many times on Energy and his analysis I think is very very good.
TheJuniorMiner
(06/07/2004; 19:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121878)
oil


Why wouldn't we want to trade fiat and electronic blips for Mid East Oil?
Druid
(06/07/2004; 20:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 121879)
(No Subject)

Druid: What? A documentary on the Federal Reserve on the travel channel?? Just started. Man! Check out the gold bars.
OvS
(06/07/2004; 20:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121880)
Aristotle
Sorry if I razzed you. I just wanted to
"razzle" you to get you out of your fox-
hole. You know how it is, slow board,
knocked down gold-price, let's have a
little action. It took a while for you
to respond, but like an elephant, you
never forget...ok, enough of this
razzmatazz...the choochoo goldtrain is
starting to take on the slope again...
Cheers...OvS
Camel
(06/07/2004; 21:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121881)
@ Junior Minor
"Why wouldn't we want to trade fiat and electronic blips for Mid East Oil?"

Exactly. And the decision to draw down the Mid-Eastern reserves rather than our own came in roughly the same time period as the mythical gold for oil deal supposidly stuck with the Sauds. The Simmons quote referred to NEW gas wells only so that may account for the difference in depletion rates.
Dollar Bill
(06/07/2004; 21:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 121882)
.,.
OVS, My guess would be that mahathir is being -rope a doped-. The Japanese, in my little fantasy, are totally tools of the FED. The 51st state if you will. Not that the Jap politicians know this, but the CB and whomever directs the financial affairs at the top in Japan.
Apparently, the US has defeated the euro so soundly, that they are not afraid to buy the bonds with money they just make appear on the computer screen. The Saudi's, Japs, Chinese, and enough other countries are on board the united states of earth concept and the US can just move into previously taboo financial extremes knowing that key countries are ok with the quietly agreed upon goal.
Which is? Some global financial structure idea that keeps them from freaking out as we leave Kansas and sail off to some greenspan and co. envisioned OZ daydream world.
Clearly mahathir is not the sharpest guy. Yet he alone is freaking. What keeps the smarter countries from taking severe defensive actions?
I dont know the shape of thier hallucination......I just see them sitting there while we blow past the wildest daydream John Law ever had. Way past. Trillions past.
Gandalf the White
(06/07/2004; 21:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121883)
NICE TRY, there ESF !!! But you failed AGAIN tonight !! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10The ESF could not get the US$ index back above the Sunday night opening price of 88.42 !!
That is now the CEILING for the US$.
NOW, can they keep Tuesday's low above the Monday low of 88.08 ?
YOU KNOW, the answer to that question, GOLDHEARTS !
<;-)
Smeagol
(06/07/2004; 22:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 121884)
Can higher premiums hide price-separation?
We've heard this once upon a while here from other fine Knoghts and Ladies, but recently a local coin-dealer told us that the premium on Maple Leaf coins had gone up 5 dollars...sss...thiss happens to other Gold coins too, and maybe other things made of It... thiss causes us to ponder... could the long-looked-for 'sseparation' of the Goldpaper-price from the metal Itself, initially take 'hidden in plain sight' form as a sslowly, gradually increasing premium, bit by bit until we have a great difference, nay even a 'marked to market' Gold-price, and yet sstill have a low paper-gold price too? Or not? Sssneaky, ssneaky! (grin)

Always curiouss about It,

S.
Smeagol
(06/07/2004; 22:23:39 MDT - Msg ID: 121885)
ACH!!
KNIGHTS...not Knoghts... ssssorrryy.

Eh? a Hai-Ku as sspelling penalty? Tough room!!...sss...O, very well...

In pitch black silence
locked away from sunny stream
there It languishes

S.
slingshot
(06/07/2004; 23:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121886)
Smeagol
Yesss, Sir Smeagol the premiums have increased at my local coin shops. Is it just more profit for the coin dealer or the price of doing business? Gold has averaged about 5% above spot. Silver is another story with $1.25 above spot. Even with the drop from $8.50 to $5.80 the premium is still $1.25.Even with this high price, SILVER IS MOVING! The Silver Eagles are something else and one of my coin dealers can't keep them for long and what a price for them. I remember buying silver at .25 over spot. Boy, have things changed. I have seen 100oz bars vanish between visits when silver was climbing. Must have been short selling and I purchased gold for I backed away from the high premium. From my neck of the woods it appears I have either feast or famine as to what is available at a good price. Have to get the best buy for the money.
Slingshot------------<>



Smeagol
(06/07/2004; 23:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 121887)
Sir Slingshot
Yess! This was the firsst time we ever had to wait for a Maple Leaf. Silver here goes for from .50 to 2.00 over sspot, depending what you buy and how much. Usually we can get Silver Eagles, but they cosst dear.

What if the premium gradually goes to 40...70...100 dollars for an ounce of It. No one would consider this a Goldpaper-burning price sseparation, would they? It would buy the Goldpaper scheme more time. WE would ssmell the ssmoke, though!

S.

P.S. Ever use Gold in your slingshot, Sir Slingshot? Now THAT would hurt!
Goldendome
(06/08/2004; 00:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 121888)
Premiums over the spot price
Slingshot: Your 5% margin over spot (roughly $20) on a gold oz., sounds alot like my local dealer, also.

A couple of years ago, he would sell a bullion oz. for the spot plus his shipping & business costs, which he figured at about 8 to 10 dollars. Now he's at spot plus $30 !!...Makes one wonder if some dealers bought high before the recent market pull-back, and that this is the reason for the increase in premium?
Goldendome
(06/08/2004; 00:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 121889)
Dairy prices to Jump again in June!

The month of June sees the dairy support prices increase by another 15 cents per gallon. So, be prepared to see all dairy prices increasing once again this month. I'm told by some in the dairy buisiness that prices will begin to level off in July; then to perhaps decrease slightly into fall. But they will remain higher permanently than the levels were, when we began 2004.

The price support program (and I'm sorry, but the official name escapes me now) begins at the top of the wholesale chain of production and distribution. It requires all wholesale distributors of processed milk over a minimum number of gallons/month, to sell their milk at government mandated/regulated wholesale prices. The price increases that were collected, for example in May, with the big increase, are just now making it down to the dairy farmer (the guy with the cows) on the farm.

How the regulated wholesale prices are arrived at, seems to be a well kept secret that perhaps only a sorcerer looking into the steaming pot can figure out. I am told that sometimes the price changes make it down to the farmer and sometimes- not. But that this time, they are seeing the last big increase.
--Give or take a few pennies--The federally supported wholesale price of milk has increased about 70 cents per gallon this year.
slingshot
(06/08/2004; 00:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 121890)
POG and POS plus Premium
I would like to comment on this subject and put forth a honest point of veiw, as I see it, to those just entering the PM arena. There is nothing more dishearting to see the POG or the POS go below the price of purchase. Even to purchase gold or silver at a higher price because of premium added to SPOT. It is cruel to have to wait to get a positive return on your investment when all indications say it should rise above all your expectations. The addition of VAT or premium to your purchase should be taken as the price of doing business. Sure the percentage may differ but keep in mind these are businessmen and they price accordingly what the market shall bare. It is up to US to research and with due diligence decide to make a purchase from whom we feel is the best purchase for our money. We all read so much here at USAGOLD and other websites and we must guard against the CHEERLEADING least we fool ourselves. Our host has no control over the markets. He provides commentary second to none and his forum stand ready like sharks to debate any issue. We must keep in mind that in the future, premiums and VAT's will seek to discourage us from securing our wealth. All the more to buy early and if you done your research, without fear.
Slingshot----------------<>
slingshot
(06/08/2004; 00:28:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121891)
Goldendome
Yes, I did question one coin dealer as to his price and he said he would not make a profit. I brought some at that price and I made out. He is not in the business to take a lost.
Slingshot---------<>
slingshot
(06/08/2004; 00:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 121892)
Smeagol
I have slung plenty of lead and if Gandalf (Related to Merlin) finds the conversion of lead to Gold, I will be digging up the Backstop ;0)
Slingshot-------<>
Gondolin
(06/08/2004; 03:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121893)
Barrick Libel case with wide ranging implications
www.GATAComm@aol.comHot off the wire from GATA, Barrick gold have just won a libel case against a web poster... far reaching implications not just for gold-bugs but in the general sphere for everyone. What precedent will this set...


Gold Firm Libelled on Web Sites, Court Rules

By Tracey Tyler
Toronto Star
Saturday, June 5, 2004

In a decision legal experts say will "scare the hell"
out of Internet users and set back free speech, the
Ontario Court of Appeal has ordered a homeless
Vancouver man to pay $125,000 in damages for
libelling a gold mining corporation on several Web
sites. The court also issued a permanent injunction
to stop Jorge Lopehandia from defaming the
company in cyberspace.

When Barrick Gold Corp. sued Lopehandia for libel
last year, the trial judge, Madam Justice Katherine
Swinton, concluded his Internet postings amounted
to an "emotional, often incoherent" diatribe that
no reasonable person would take seriously. She
awarded the company a nominal $15,000 for injury
to its reputation.

But the appeal court set aside her decision yesterday.
In a 2-1 ruling, the court called Lopehandia's campaign
of "cyber libel" malicious, high-handed, unremitting,
tenacious, vicious, spiteful, "wide ranging in
substance, and worldwide in scope."

Lopehandia claims that he and three others nominally
owned a Chilean mine site acquired by Barrick. In
messages posted on various cyber bulletin boards, he
accuses the company of, among other things, fraud,
money laundering, and pursuing organized crimes
against humanity. "Barrick is DEVIL killer," one line
said.

Libelling someone on the Internet is different than
defaming him in other media, such as newspapers,
the court said yesterday. Lopehandia's use of the
Internet made his "blizzard" of messages potentially
more damaging -- and more believable -- because of
the speed, scope, and blunt anonymous nature of
statements on the World Wide Web, the court said.

Lopehandia did not have a lawyer representing him
at the trial or when the case came before the Court
of Appeal.

Mr. Justice Robert Blair, who wrote yesterday's
decision, said Lopehandia's writing style might not
be taken seriously in more traditional media, such as
newspapers, but there's nothing to suggest it would
be laughed off on the Internet, where, as one expert
put it "anything goes."

The majority increased general damages to $75,000
and ordered Lopehandia to pay $50,000 in punitive
damages as punishment for conduct Blair described
as falling into the special category of being so
outrageous that it offends the court's sense of
decency. The use of the Internet helped to push it
into that league, he said.

Reached yesterday in North Vancouver, Lopehandia's
son, Jordan, 23, said his father is living in a
downtown hostel and has no access to a phone. He
believes that people are out to get him, his son
said.

Libel law experts found yesterday's ruling deeply
troubling.

"This is a decision which will send a chill to
users of the Internet," said Toronto lawyer and
libel law expert Bert Bruser, who represents the
Star. "The Court of Appeal has determined that
somehow or other, chatter on the Internet is
more deadly than other forms of libel and they
did this, it seems to me, without any evidence."

Libel law expert Brian Rogers agreed.

Rogers said he too found it disturbing that "some
very strong and pervasive" findings were made about
the Internet without hearing from those who might
defend how it was used in this case.
misetich
(06/08/2004; 05:45:43 MDT - Msg ID: 121894)
Oil Up on Iraq Disruption, Nigeria Threat
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24059-2004Jun8.html?nav=headlinesSnip:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices made fresh gains on Tuesday after news of further disruption to Iraq's oil exports and the threat that a strike in Nigeria could disrupt its flows to a tight international market. U.S. light crude for July was up 24 cents at $38.90 a barrel, while in London, July Brent was up 29 cents to $36.25.
.......................

Prices rose after a source at Iraq's state oil marketing organization said that attacks on Iraq's vital oil pipeline to Turkey have again halted crude flows, leaving Baghdad unable to sell Kirkuk oil for several more weeks.

Iraq's oil exports will be limited to some 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of Basra Light from its southern Gulf terminals until enough Kirkuk accumulates in storage tanks at the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

Nigeria's umbrella labor union is to hold last-minute talks with government officials late on Tuesday over a planned general strike protesting recent increases in gasoline prices, a union leader said.

Unions have promised to hold a prolonged strike if the government does not intervene to reduce gasoline prices, saying they will disrupt the OPEC member country's oil exports by withdrawing workers from oil exporting terminals.
**********************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues..... and inflationary pressures are mounting worldwide.

Iraq's situation has on the 'surface' ameliorated as the transfer of power to a US/UN appointed/negotiated interim government is to take place June 30 - however it remains to be seen whether this will stop the uprising of the Iraqi people as multi-national forces ranging from 160,000 to 250,000 are still on the ground attending to "security matters"

Iraq's oil production was expected to "cool-off" high oil prices - however - continued disruption, targetting the oil infrastrure has resulted in a higher risk premium

Iraq's pandora box has been opened - the next stage will revolve around the 3 main groups - Sunnys, Shiite and Kurds-begin the "democratic process" culminating in elections supposedly within the next 6 months

The odds are high, of the 3 factions tensions rising with further provocations and altercations which may lead to a civil war

IF the above 'gloomy scenario' materializes Iraq's situation will remain chaotic, and perhaps worsen as US led multi-nationals forces will be caught in the middle - and will prevent much needed reconstruction to be put on hold - including the oil infrastrure

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/08/2004; 06:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121895)
Barrick motion to join absent bullion banks and gold producers - DENIED
https://www.savegold.com/litigation/20040507.pdfSnip:

Plaintiffs' antitrust claims is generally that the defendants (JP Morgan, Barrick Gold) - unlawfully combined and conspired to actively, artificially manipulate the price of gold, monopolize the market in gold and cause anti-trust injurys................
......................
In this court's opinion, the discovery phase of this litigation has not advanced significantly since the hearing on May 29, 2003. The motion practice associated with the duelling terms of parties' protective orders is ongoing. Absent production of the disputed contracts, it is impossible to discern the interest of the absent bullion banks or to determine the potential for either multiple litigation or inconsistent judgements.

Accordingly and for all the above and foregoing reasons. It is ORDERED that Barrick's Motion to Join is DENIED.
*****************
Misetich

Here's ANOTHER snip to refresh the basis of the lawsuit launched against Barrick

"The lawsuit claims that in the past five years Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market � additions that were several times as great as the annual production of every gold mine in
South Africa, the largest gold producing nation in the world. By using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing the addition of billions of dollars worth of (physical) gold with off-balance sheet accounting, Barrick was able to make it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions.

"The same type of accounting maze that hid Enron's debts made it possible for Barrick to manipulate the price of gold without the checks and balances that come from public scrutiny. As a percentage of Barrick's total
assets, its off-balance sheet assets make Enron look like a champion of full disclosure," said Doyle. "Is Barrick a gold mining company, or is it a hedge fund with a mine out back?"

http://www.cardcounter.com/nonBJ.pl?noframes;read=716
End of Snip

Many investors allege Barrick hedging policies of the past, hurt gold prices and gold investors as a whole -

Other lawsuits have been launched by investors against Barrick claiming the company mislead investors

Re: Gondolin (6/8/04; 03:17:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 121893)
Barrick Libel case with wide ranging implications

As an investor I find Barrick's actionS re: libel suit repulsive

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Boilermaker
(06/08/2004; 07:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 121896)
Mystery Money
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/06/business/yourmoney/06ubs.htmlThis article from the Sunday NY Times tells the story of how $billions in cash find their way into the hands of unfriendly people in spite of so-called restrictions. Most interesting (and least surprising) is the complicity of major international banks in this process. Clearly the US hasn't even dented the river of money going to terrorists and their host nations.

Conspicuous by its absence in the article is the mention of gold (or the Euro) as a means to move and store wealth. Early in the Iraqi takeover we saw several stories of trucks heading for Syria with large stashes of gold colored bars. I can't remember seeing any confirmation whether or not the bars were really gold. Has anyone seen anything on this?

Here's a few snips:

WHEN a United States Army sergeant broke through a false wall in a small building in Baghdad on a Friday afternoon a little over a year ago, he discovered more than three dozen sealed boxes containing about $160 million in neatly bundled $100 bills.
Later that day, soldiers found more cash in other hideaways near the Tigris River, in an exclusive neighborhood that elite members of Saddam Hussein's government once called home. By the end of the evening, they had amassed 164 metal boxes, all riveted shut, that held about $650 million in shrink-wrapped greenbacks. The cash was so heavy, and so valuable, that the Army needed a C-130 Hercules cargo plane to airlift it to a secure location.
-----------
Mr. Baxter and the New York Fed, along with the Treasury Department and the Customs Service, immediately began an investigation into Baghdad's currency stockpile. The continuing inquiry offers a rudimentary road map of illicit dealings - including lucrative oil smuggling - in Iraq and neighboring countries during the Hussein years, the federal authorities say.
The investigation led quickly to the vaults of four Western banks that were among a select group handling the sensitive task of distributing freshly printed dollars overseas: the Bank of America, the HSBC Group, the Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS. Several other commercial banks and foreign central banks, which the Fed did not name, also served as stopovers along Baghdad's money trail, according to a written account Mr. Baxter provided to the Senate Banking Committee about two weeks ago.
-----------
None of the four main banks the Fed scrutinized had sent currency directly to Iraq. But as the inquiry wore on last year, investigators learned that UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, had transferred $4 billion to $5 billion to four other countries that were under sanctions: Libya, Iran, Cuba and the former Yugoslavia. Over an eight-year period, UBS employees had quietly shipped the money to those countries from a vault at the Zurich airport, undetected by Fed auditors who made regular visits to the site.

EARLY last month, the Federal Reserve Board fined UBS $100 million for the currency violations. It was the second-largest penalty ever levied by America's central bank, surpassed only by a $200 million fine imposed on the Bank of Credit and Commerce International, or B.C.C.I., in 1991 for violating American banking laws. The B.C.C.I. case was part of a global investigation of fraud and money laundering.
-------------
Of the $680 billion in cash that the Fed has in circulation, more than $400 billion, or nearly 60 percent, is outside the United States. That overseas supply, particularly in economically unstable regions, is the financial lifeblood of businesses, and even of pensioners who stow dollars in their mattresses. The authorities constantly monitor that supply to keep counterfeiters from tainting it, and hub banks like UBS play a pivotal role in ferreting out currency forgers.

Those billions overseas, however, also grease the wheels of more nefarious commerce - arms trafficking, smuggling and the timeless crafts of political and financial graft.
--------------
THE difficulty of mapping the full journey of the money found in Baghdad last year shows some of the forensic hurdles confronting Fed and Treasury investigators. But the supervision of UBS has shown some of the Fed's regulatory weaknesses.

"The Fed just seemed to take UBS at their word as to where they traded the money," Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, said in a statement two weeks ago. "As long as the bottom line matched up, the Fed didn't seem to worry that much about where the money went. UBS falsified documents, but I do not believe the Fed showed the proper due diligence."




misetich
(06/08/2004; 08:32:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121897)
Fed 'prepared to do what is required' -Rate hikes likely to be measured but that could change
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B72F8D040%2DD37D%2D471D%2DB9DD%2D3CF775EBCF13%7D&siteid=mktwSnip:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Federal Reserve rate hikes are likely to be measured, but the central bank is "prepared to do what is required" to fight inflation, Federal Reserve board chairman Alan Greenspan said.
.......................
"Should that judgment prove misplaced, however, the FOMC is prepared to do what is required to fulfill our obligations to achieve the maintenance of price stability so as to ensure maximum sustainable economic growth," he said
..................
Businesses are becoming more confident about the economy and are now hiring "with some vigor," Greenspan said. At the same time, many new hires are temporary workers, an indication that "business caution remains a feature of the economic landscape," he said.
......................
But he said cost pressures have been "relatively subdued."

The rise of energy prices is a "worrisome element" that has been a net drain on the economy and could boost inflation if the high price level persists.

"The recent modest declines in oil and natural gas prices may or may not signal a trend but are nonetheless welcome," Greenspan said.
********************
Misetich

" to fulfill our obligations " translation - reluctant to increase IR

Admits job creation has been " temporary hires" and he fears high energy prices

Sounds tired....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Gandalf the White
(06/08/2004; 09:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121898)
Thanks, Sir Smeagol !!
Smeagol (06/07/04; 22:23:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 121885)
ACH!!
KNIGHTS...not Knoghts... ssssorrryy.
Eh? a Hai-Ku as sspelling penalty? Tough room!!...sss...O, very well...
===
Sir Smeagol, the Wiz loves it when YOU make a ssspelling error ! GREAT Hai-Ku !!!
<;-)
Great Albino Bat
(06/08/2004; 09:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 121899)
Greenspan talk...sounds instead of substance...

"Should that judgment prove misplaced,"....

Why not say, "If we are mistaken"? Just because it sounds more reassuring to hear more and bigger words.

The proliferation of heavy words masks intellectual bankruptcy.

Another favorite word of Greenspan's "suggest". He likes to hide behind that word, it's a way of "de-responsibilizing" himself. The (selected) data "suggested" the wrong thing, perhaps?

And so we go from cloud to cloud of fantasy in a dream world of paper money.

A pox on paper!

The GAB
Gandalf the White
(06/08/2004; 09:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121900)
WOWSERS!!! did SOMEONE make the ESF angry ? <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Look at the ESF "CHARGE IT's" today on the US$ index chart!
TWO times were required, as the first "Charge it" did not break the 88.42 level, but the second "Charge it" did !!
Remember ---- "PAPER burns!"
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/08/2004; 09:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121901)
YES, Sir GAB !
A pox on paper!
The GAB
===
BAT -- you type much faster than I !
(and your word usage is far better)
<;-)
Federal_Reserves
(06/08/2004; 09:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121902)
Greenspan's tough talk on inflation
He must have seen the PPI report for the month, which is due out on Thursday, 1 day early. Some say the monthly
rate could hit 1% maybe more. They have been fudging the
report for several months, I guess they can't hide it
anymore.

Prices paid on the ISM's have been going through the roof.

FED should have lifted long ago, but with his liberal policy he is giving Bush the "KERRY TRADE", propping up the markets to facilitate Bush's re-election and his own re-appointment as the FED boss. Partners in crime.

If the FED haa to lift to quickly, its likely they'll pop the credit bubble. Already real estate sales (new homes) collapsed last month 12% on a 1% hike in the long rates.

Greenspan is likely to wrap things around the axle.




Ag Mountain
(06/08/2004; 10:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 121903)
Hypocricy in action?
"The proliferation of heavy words masks intellectual bankruptcy."

Albino Bat, by not practicing what you preach you've cleverly given your students a good lesson in the unravelling of this irony. Either you're drawing them toward the conclusion of your own intellectual bankruptcy, or else you're demonstrating that intellectually gifted individuals like Alan and yourself can't resist luxuriating themselves in a sumptuous brocade of their own articulation.
TownCrier
(06/08/2004; 10:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 121904)
Fed Trading Desk not behaving like a policy-tightening rate hike is imminent
With the overnight market in fed funds trading this morning at 0.96%, BELOW the FOMC's 1% target, the Fed's Trading Desk none the less intervened in the open market to add fresh cash reserves to the nation's banking system.

Six billion dollars were added via overnight repos at a weighted average of 0.969 percent.

More significantly, the Fed also engaged, once again, in the outright purchase of Treasuries. Today's coupon pass, targeting maturities from May 2008 to February 2012, totalled one billion dollars -- as a "permanent" addition of new cash reserves through which commercial banks may further expand the nation's money supply.

Is that helicopters, or thunderclouds, that I'm hearing here?

(money rain)

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/08/2004; 10:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 121905)
Exercise your savings decisions to enjoy personal sovereignty and security
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations?

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

Great Albino Bat
(06/08/2004; 11:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 121906)
Ag Mountain. Well taken, I guess. Maybe I better shut up

"Try to please all, and you please none."

The GAB
Forza Tesori
(06/08/2004; 11:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 121907)
I found a 14k gold nugget bracelet.
It's 50 grams so I calculated it to have 31 grams of gold in it.

I don't know much about gold but I want to get the $400.00 worth of gold out of it. What is the best way of doing this?
Ag Mountain
(06/08/2004; 12:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121908)
Forza, the best way
Tthe best way to get the $400 worth of gold out of it you should sell it, pawn shop or ebay, then use the cash to buy a four-nines bullion coin.

Assuming your time is worth something, you probably don't want to waste it doing the mechanical separation unless you want to just for the experience or fun of it. But if it's a really nice bracelet you might get a bit more gold out of it by selling it as jewelry first and buying the gold afterwards.
TownCrier
(06/08/2004; 12:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121909)
HEADLINE: Gold at $350/oz or $500/oz by Christmas?
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/327888.htm08-JUN-2004 JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Gold prognostication is in full swing, with a gaggle of commentators weighing in with their year-end price predictions. The range is wide, with the bears, led by Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi, forecasting $350/oz. The bulls meanwhile � and there are no shortage of them despite a becalmed bullion market - are touting bullion at between $450/oz and $500/oz by Christmas.

The reason for the $150/oz chasm can be chalked up to differing house views of just how aggressively the US Federal Reserve is going to deal with interest rates and how the dollar will react if that transpires.

...In theory, Barclays says, rising interest rates would have a profound effect on the dollar's strength against the euro. Naqvi says the official house forecast by the end of the year is $1.08 per euro, well below its current level and a price last reached on April 14 last year.

That gain in the dollar would lead to a $350/oz gold price, a horrifying prospect for bulls but perhaps still generous given that bullion traded at $324/oz when the dollar was last at that level 14 months ago.

The bears� argument is "unlikely", says Quinton George a gold fund manager at Trinity Asset Management in Cape Town, who is predicting a $500/oz gold price by the end of the year. I think rising interest rates are taking place because of a rising inflationary threat�in the long term the dollar will not stay strong," he says.

He believes the higher interest rates are "a thermometer of risk for the dollar". "And that risk is rising, just look at the bond market, it looks like it's had its throat cut," he says.

George, a long time bull, says if foreign bondholders, the largest investors in the US bond market, get cold feet and shift assets out of the US currency, hard assets � and gold in particular � will be the beneficiaries.

He also argues that rampant credit extension in the US has left household balance sheets stretched and vulnerable, once the inevitable rise in interest rates occurs. That could derail the consumption-led recovery in the world's largest market.

Those are well worn arguments that are wearing thin among speculators on the bellwether Comex market, who have waited patiently for fear of economic collapse to drive [paper]gold through the roof, to go short. The fact is that dollar bears have precious few alternatives that are large enough or sufficiently liquid to house the mighty wall of money that is currently invested in the US currency.

Nevertheless, George believes the dollar will have to weaken by 30 percent to 50 percent from its current levels over the coming years, if the US is to make its exports more competitive in order to whittle away at its spiralling twin deficits.

"That just has to happen if the US hopes to keep sustainable capital markets," he says. And watch out. If George is right again, as he was when he famously led his clients into gold at the turn of the century in time for the latest bull run, the "recovery everyone has bought for the last 12 months" is only a mirage.

"The bull market in equities that lasted for 20 years has changed over the past five years. Over the next 12 to 15 months we are going to revisit the lows we saw last year in the equity markets," says George.

------(see url for full article)----

It should come as no surprise that with Rothchild's stepping aside we see this rhetoric from Barclays, as the newest gold fixer on the London block, talking down the crowds as any old-timey bank manager would in the face of a formative bank run on his deposits -- all in an effort to save his operation. So take Mr. Naqvi's bearish comments with a grain of salt.

R.
Topaz
(06/08/2004; 12:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 121910)
@Randy.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=It's both curious and disturbing to note the marked change in monetary attitude that has become obvious these last several months.
Gone is the obfuscation, tact, guile and diplomacy which prevailed in or under a democratic administration, having been replaced with a far more "stick and carrot - with us or agin us" republican methodology.
This is illustrated in both Fed activities and Forex trading, as it is always the Dollar bloc currencies who move to dampen the rise or fall moves in $Cash.
The markets are far more "controlled" than we'd dare contemplate I fear.

Chart shows DX/Oil coming together as anticipated, Bond Yields are proving a stubborn "mule" tho!
Forza Tesori
(06/08/2004; 13:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 121911)
Ag Mountain, thanks..
I'm just worried that a pawn shop won't give me the actual value of gold in it. In my opinion, it's an ugly bracelet but it does have over an ounce of gold in it. I'll try and see what they say.

Maybe I should have it melted down and get the solid gold out of it. hehe
TownCrier
(06/08/2004; 13:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121912)
Hello Topaz
Very much controlled, yes. Given the human penchant to organize, build tools, and to exercise control over nearly every facet of our environment, we probably shouldn't be too surprised by this.

One of the great services provided by FOA was in the emphasis that gold advocates can flex our muscles by taking gold off the table in the ultimate act of one-upmanship -- thus controlling our controllers.

A bank isn't a bullion bank if it has no physical gold deposits to work with. As a deflationist (do I have that right?) I'm sure you, Topaz, have no trouble seeing how that all plays out to our advantage.

My best,

R.
Topaz
(06/08/2004; 14:04:44 MDT - Msg ID: 121913)
@Randy.
Thats the crux of it Randy, as blatant full sprectum systemic management is or can be witnessed by even casual observers, rather than retaining fiat profits by pre-empting management, the increasing trend MUST BE to preservation of wealth in ANOTHER form outside the system ... even in the face of a declining (managed) systemic denominator.

The HARDEST task will be/is getting great wads of Bullion OUT OF the system ... thankfully, I don't have that worry;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/08/2004; 14:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 121914)
Sir Smeagol --- Did you see that ?
Forza Tesori (6/8/04; 11:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 121907)
I found a 14k gold nugget bracelet.
---
My suggestion for you, Sir (or is that Lady?) Forza Tesori, is just to sit tight until Sir Smeagol knocks on your doorway.
BTW, WELCOME to the USAGOLD TableRound!!!
<;-)
DryWasher
(06/08/2004; 14:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121915)
@ Forza Tesori Gold Nugget Bracelet (msg#: 121907)

The value of ALL jewelry depends upon its quality as well as the precious metal content, so you should have it appraised by a reputable person that deals in that type of jewelry. I can tell you that in general nuggets will sell for more than the contained gold value to collectors or jewelry makers. Some nuggets, depending on size, shape, and other qualities, MAY sell for several times the contained gold and silver value. Remember that nuggets, particularly large nuggets, are relatively rare.

By the way placer Gold, including nuggets, was exempt from the 1930's ban on gold ownership.

@ G.A.B. (msg#: 121899) For the record, I thought that was a good post, for whatever that is worth.

DryWasher.
misetich
(06/08/2004; 14:14:54 MDT - Msg ID: 121916)
Housing: It's Different This Time (As It Was For Stocks In 1999)
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc060404.pdfSnip:

Below are four charts pertaining to the value of owner-occupied residential real estate. The last period plotted is 2003:Q4. In all cases but one, the last data point is a post-WWII record high. The one exception is mortgage debt as a percentage of the market value of residential real estate, which was at a record high in 2003:Q3. At the end of 1999, similar statistics related to the U.S. stock market were at post-WWII highs. Those who thought that U.S. equity prices at the close of 1999 were significantly overvalued were dismissed with: "You don't understand. It's different this time." Asset price bubbles deflate when the "gas" flowing into them � central bank credit � gets restricted. As we enter a period when the Fed will start to restrict the growth in the credit it provides the U.S. financial system, it will be interesting to see if it really is different this time for the housing market or if it is a bubble just as the stock market was back in 1999.
...............
But I'm sure it will be different this time for housing. We had better hope so inasmuch as U.S. commercial banks have a record 60% of their earning assets in mortgage-related obligations.
*********************
Misetich

Housing prices keep on rocketing higher fuelled by massive mortgage debt -

Price inflation led by property taxes, health costs, commodities, energy are in the double digits territory - and little relief insight

Making matters worse is the anemic job creation -

US housing prices are not as overheated (yet) as they are in other parts of the world ei) UK - thus the likelyhood of asset inflation spilling over to the real economy is very high

Whilst central bankers keep on boasting current "phenomenal growth" it is interesting to note - that IR remain at emergency rates - as an example, Canada today announced no increase to their 2% IR

Job creation in the industrialized world is virtually non-existent thus the odds favor 'accomodative' policies for the foreseeable future

In the meanwhile, The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues....and within the next 3 months we will discover its effects...........

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
TownCrier
(06/08/2004; 14:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 121917)
DryWasher, on "gold nugget" jewelry
http://www.usagold-jewelry.com/mens/moneyclip.htmlSometimes the word "nugget", in terms of jewelry styles, doesn't mean a natural, placer treasure, but instead connotes an irregular, nuggety pattern.

You can see an example of this nugget style in the moneyclip pictured on the left.

And by the way... Marie would flog me if I didn't use this as an opportunity to remind you ladies and gentlemen that Father's Day is scant more than a week and a half away. Give the gift of gold. There's no better symbolic way to pay tribute to the fine man that brought you into this world, and somehow raised you (I'm sure you were a real handful) in such a way that you ultimately found yourself here, thinking so astutely about monetary matters and gold.

Check out the link, and call Marie this week at 1-800-869-5115 ext. 106 to set your father up with the kind of gift that keeps giving, year after year.

R.
misetich
(06/08/2004; 14:55:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121918)
Where is the Horror? by Magnus Ekervik
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1623.htmSnip:

Conclusion: If the FED is repeatedly warning us about the possible financial systemic risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac I think it is wise to be on full alert for a crisis in these companies. I think they are experiencing a crisis already and the FED is pumping billions of M3 to liquefy these companies. Remember that what you have read above is the official version from the FED. The official version is scary enough, who knows how they talk about this issue behind closed doors. I think a severe shock is about to hit the financial markets in the form of a GSE collapse. A crash like this will throw the US and world economies into recession so fast it will make your head spin. Eventually these events will lead the global economies into a new depression...
***************
Misetich

GSE's an accident ready to happen....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/08/2004; 15:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 121919)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

-----
Today's closing market rap excerpts:

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased below $392 per ounce Tuesday, to two-day lows, on a let-up in the recent trade and light fund buying prompted by a firmer U.S. dollar.

The dollar was given further impetus by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that the Fed is prepared to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy stance to combat rising inflation pressures, which he believes may be more pronounced than previously thought.

However, gold also found support from those comments as bullion is often a popular destination for investors looking for a store-of-value asset and inflation hedge.

Gold for August delivery closed at $391.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $2.70. The contract gave back nearly all of Monday's $2.80 gain.

James Moore, an analyst at London's TheBullionDesk.com, expects trading in the precious markets to hold within a tight range, with the New York Mercantile Exchange closing Friday in observance of the day of national mourning for Ronald Reagan.

Data on the U.S. producer price index has been rescheduled to Thursday afternoon from Friday. The trade gap figure was delayed to Monday. Gold prices managed to gain ground in the previous two sessions, despite data last week on U.S. payrolls indicating strong U.S. economic growth.

"This has given it the strength to move over the $400 psychological level [in the] near term," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter. "Providing gold doesn't close below $386, the least resistance course for gold is up."

-----(see url for access to full news)-----
Great Albino Bat
(06/08/2004; 15:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121920)
Gold to fall if interest rates go up?

Some may be thinking about this. Forget your worries!

Sure, gold may be pushed down a few bucks - for a few days as a confirmation of these fears by TPTB. But, nothing more than that - a good buying opportunity, once again.

When interest rates begin to rise in the US - or rather, when this fact is confirmed by the FED, we will be told a load of garbage. Fact is, the interest rate FORCES the Fed, it is not something that the FED implements as a matter of policy. There is nothing they can do about it, except put the best possible lying interpretation on the fact.

We shall soon be referring to the American Dollar as the American PESO. It has been managed in the best Third World Style, and now it is going to join the ranks of the PESO cutrrencies.

Brazil, a kind of model for the great USA.(?) Think of Brazil with nuclear weapons. This is happening, not GOING to happen.

Interest rates going up are an infallible sign of WEAKNESS, not of strength in a currency. The higher interest rates go, the weaker the currency; more devaluation, then higher interest rates to compensate. ON and ON. DOWN and DOWN.

Welcome to the American PESO. Hop on board the gold express, as some say here. Never been a better time to do it!

The GAB
DryWasher
(06/08/2004; 17:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121921)
@TownCrier (msg#: 121917)

I would bet that Forza Tesori's Gold Nugget Bracelet is not anything like the "nuggety pattern" jewelry shown on your link because I don't think anyone would ever describe that jewelry as being ugly. I know I sure wouldn't.

Unfortunately I have seen natural nugget jewelry that in my opinion really is ugly, and I have to wonder why anyone would spoil nuggets in such a way, yet it still seems to sell for a premium. I guess beauty really is in the eye of the beholder.

The important point I was trying to make was that if one is not knowledgeable about the value of something, make it a point to find a reliable source of information and find out rather than guessing, and perhaps, making a costly mistake.

I sure do agree with Ag Mountain that rather than trying to recover the gold from the ugly bracelet, the proper thing to do is to sell it for a fair price, then buy gold in the form you want to replace it from a reliable source such as our host where I can say from experience you will be treated right.

DryWasher.
melda laure
(06/08/2004; 17:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 121922)
Get there first with the most men... revisited
http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp"Consider that with Iraqi exports in the neighbourhood of $2 million barrels a day, the cost of an Iraqi barrel of crude is somewhere north of $200 a barrel when you factor in the daily cost of the war to get control of it."...


" More fundamentally, if the US truly plans to restore full sovereignty to the Iraqi government, then why are 14 permanent US military bases being built right now? What are the economic costs of such engagement? "...


Delicious, simply scrumptuous! Supply and demand in the fog of war, not all is as it seems. And this little gem:

" One might identify increases in supply or declines in demand, but they do not point to lower prices if the supply/ demand balance is already in a SUBSTANTIAL DEFICIT. It is also important to note that serious flaws in the supply/demand statistics are not uncommon in commodity markets and they can lead the marketplace to make significant price forecasting errors. "


Indeed, it is all as I thought almost a year ago:

Cost is irrelevant,
delivery is paramount.

Take delivery without mercy, because Greenspan must open the floodgates of heaven to keep the ship afloat.
Smeagol
(06/08/2004; 17:29:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121923)
Not THISS time!
Sir Gandalf: "Sir Smeagol --- Did you see that?"

Smeagol - sss...look what happened the LASST time we losst something and tried to get it back! No thankss! We only need to be burnt ONCE to learn the lesson! We won't lose It this time! (grin)

Sir Town Crier: "One of the great services provided by FOA was in the emphasis that gold advocates can flex our muscles by taking gold off the table in the ultimate act of one-upmanship -- thus controlling our controllers."

Smeagol-

Hard won Gold in hand,
we or the Powers must wield
who blinks first, precious?

S.
Smeagol
(06/08/2004; 18:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 121924)
Melda Laure
"Take delivery without mercy..."

(cackle)...We likes the ssound of that! Like a battle cry, it is... Delivery! Delivery! Delivery Without Mercy!!!

S.
misetich
(06/08/2004; 20:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 121925)
Attacks hint tactics in Iraq are changing
http://www.iht.com/articles/524075.htmlSnip:

Coordinated sabotage attacks on fuel and transmission lines around an enormous power plant south of Baghdad shut the plant down last weekend, American and Iraqi government officials said Tuesday, raising new fears that insurgents were targeting major sectors of the Iraqi infrastructure as part of an overall terror plan.
.
At full production, the plant is capable of supplying nearly 20 percent of the entire electrical output of Iraq. But the plant's output plunged nearly to zero and was still generating only a fraction of its maximum output, said Raad Al Haris, deputy minister for electricity.
......................
More worrisome than this specific act of sabotage, Haris said, is the pattern of attacks on the electrical grid around the country. He estimated that the high-tension lines that are the backbone of the grid have been attacked an average of twice a week recently, and he expressed irritation at what he said had been a refusal by the Coalition Provisional Authority to provide security for the lines.
*****************
Misetich

Iraq situation is deteriorating at the "ground level" - whilst Pro-Coaltion forces and their appointed non-elected Iraqi "sovereign" government stay within the secure confines of the "Green zone" and attempt to administer the country.
The targetting of Iraq's infrastrure - primarily oil - is disconcerning to those that count/counted on Iraqi oil to aliviate global oil supply concerns

Continued instability in Iraq - casualties are still mounting daily - inflicted both on Pro-Coaltions sympathizers (Iraqis) and pro-coalition forces - adds a RISK PREMIUM to oil and gold prices

The cost of the invasion/occupation and soon to be "providing security forces" are increasing as manpower has increased rather than the projected decrease - thus increasing the Budget Deficit

OPEC has unofficially adopted a new price band in the $30's due to the depreciating $ - and continued sabotage in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia against oil infrastrure implies oil prices stabilizing in the current ranges of $35-40 in the short-term with possible SPIKES upward of oil supply disruption

China, Japan are increasing their oil demand and establish higher levels of strategic reserves - It was reported China has only 23 DAYS of oil supplies in such reserves

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues....and price inflation is soaring as central bankers hands are tied with their fragile economic recoveries and little job creation...thus remaining in "accommodotive mode"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
specie-man
(06/08/2004; 21:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 121926)
Greenspan spoke today...
...stocks & bonds went up, metals and oil went down.
Greenspan discussed how the Fed would react should oil prices stay high for an extended time and induce inflation.

Again, the Fed's words are all about PERCEPTIONS. Today's message was targeted directly towards the oil market ! The purpose of Greenspan's remarks was to push the oil price down. And it worked (today). The Fed didn't have to do anything, other than speak a few choice comments, and they achieved their desired objective (for today).

Why are they doing this ? Mainly because the managing of perceptions and expectations is the ONLY weapon the Fed has available !

The current economic envronment (with rising oil prices and commodities, weak wages, and historic debt levels) is truly a nightmare scenario for the Fed. Traditionaly, the Fed has had the luxury of fighting inflation during times of strong wage growth. Fed tightening during those times was possible, in part, because corporations and consumers had good income, and were able to endure the leaner times (Fed tightening) without mass bankruptcies.

Today, it it different. Debt levels are high and wages are relatively weak. High energey prices are a critical hit on the economy. They suck the life out of it, while being inflationary at the same time.

Yes, the Fed wants to fight inflation. But the patient (economy) is weak. An infection (high oil prices) is giving the patient a fever, and the patient is tired and worn out (debt exhaustion). The Fed wants to fight the infection, but the patient is too weak and the antibiotics (higher interest rates) may be fatal (cause bankruptcy).

So the Fed can only attempt to manage expectations and *hope* that oil drops a lot so that they can safely begin to raise interest rates (eventually). The Fed, at this time, simply can not raise interest rates (except for a small token amount). If oil prices do not come down significantly -on their own- then the Fed won't be able to stop the hyper-stagflation.
specie-man
(06/08/2004; 21:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 121927)
Re: Greenspan spoke today...
And, on the other hand, the Fed should perhaps be careful what it wishes for. Should oil prices decline and stay down, that could diminish the world-wide demand for US Dollars (since most oil is priced in Dollars). If that happened, Asia might unload a large amount of excess Dollars, and they would then naturally find their way back to the US and possibly ignite price inflation - the kind of inflation the Fed hates the most.

The Fed is also wishing for an environment that would tolerate higher interest rates. But with the large US Government budget deficit, higher interest rates would mean higher borrowing costs for the Government - which could cause even larger budget deficits - which would cause interest rates to go even higher - which could cause bigger deficits ...



Chris Powell
(06/08/2004; 21:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121928)
CFTC official who told silver bugs to get lost resigns
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2232Just a coincidence?


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

mikal
(06/09/2004; 00:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 121929)
Your debt bill is outdated
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr060804.shtmlYOUR DEBT... CONTINUES TO RISE
Ed Henry
Druid
(06/09/2004; 00:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121930)
Star Trek
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hoy060704.html
"Some of you are thinking about the futures market. Don't! Why? Because this is the home court of our opponent. All the manipulations that go on in the metals happen in the futures market. Why would you want to move the price of silver higher so they could thump you again? Doesn't it make a lot more sense to let the price fall and acquire the silver bullion at much cheaper levels? Wouldn't it be great to buy all the above ground silver and have the price fall at the same time? This would put a bite on the cartel that would leave them writhing in pain. We could turn the tables on them so easily. All we have to do is work together. There is no question; the amount of silver necessary, to fill our orders, will be very difficult to come by. Once we have cleaned the street out, we can then turn our attention to the futures market and take delivery on our contracts. Where do you think the manipulators will be at that point in time? They can raise margins but who cares? We are going to take delivery anyway. This is pure and simple supply and demand forces at work. There is no question that at some point, our government will step up and try to stop this. Again, who cares? It is at this point in time that the game will already be over. What do you think will be going on in your silver stock holdings? Yeah, I know I've heard it a million times "I wish I would have bought or I wish I would have bought more, when the price was cheap back at the beginning of June!"

If the government were to try to make ownership of the metal itself illegal they would be in for a real fight. Just like taking guns away. The government has no right to steal from the people who were prudent enough to protect themselves in the first place. They may try, but they would lose. Remember, when ownership of gold was outlawed in the 30's, there wasn't one lawsuit filed against anyone who refused to turn their gold in. If Uncle Sam wants my gold and silver he can buy it in the marketplace, just like I had to. Likewise, all the shorts will be forced to either belly-up or buy in the marketplace.

All one has to do is change their perspective on how they look at things. Some people want you to look at gold and silver as jewelry. That way they can justify they're silly positions by saying the demand will fall as the price rises and it becomes less affordable. Morons, as the price rises in the metals, a whole new class of investors will enter the picture. It is almost a crime to refer to these people as investors. They don't have, nor will they ever have a clue to what investing is all about! No matter how hard you try, you will never be able to convince them to do the right thing at the right time. To be honest they are not worth your time to try to help them. You are giving them the best advice they will ever hear and all they can say is "what use is gold, you can't eat it?" Every time I hear some idiot say this I want to grab him by the throat, "No you can't eat it but it will buy you a meal anywhere in the world, now tell me how you can eat that piece of paper, called a dollar, euro, or yen?" Tell me how many places in the world you can buy a meal with paper? They don't get it and never will until it's too late and then they want you to do them a favor and trade them some of your silver and gold. They get tired of pushing the wheel barrel."
*************************************************

Druid: ANOTHER analyst walking alongside the trail heading in the same direction and arriving at some of the same conclusions. Slowly, the real physical gold and silver world will draw most, if not, all of them in toward the obvious trail here that was established quite some time ago by so many great thinkers. I salute all of you.

Ari, my comment about you having a thick skin was simply my way of saying thank you so very much for your past, present and (hopefully) continued future contributions concerning the ownership of physical gold bullion. And, so eloquently in the past, debated and described the separate and distinct systems of wealth accumulation, preservation and liberty in contrast to our current system of undisciplined monetary folly and theft built on perceptions and dreams.

Yes, I want an unadulterated priced physical "freegold" market and if paper instruments are all the rage then so be it but let an unadulterated "free market" price, value and determine the merits of both systems and/or "financial" instruments.

In defense of your positions, you on occasion, tend to bring on some harsh responses and I for one would sorely miss what you have to say if you stopped posting. Some of your most recent posts have put some sparkles in a colleague's eyes and he is almost there about the concept of gold ownership( he has much paper wealth to lose if he can't make the mental leap) so you and many others are making a difference.

Many thanks to all the other fine posters past and present. You bring a lot of rational thought to a world gone completely MAD.



Belgian
(06/09/2004; 01:01:50 MDT - Msg ID: 121931)
Singing in the confetti rain...lala didala....
It will keep on raining ...and it's from helicopters, Randy.
In the mean time, the dollar is kindly requesting YOU to stay in papergold (also dropped from helicopters) and the euro, extremely discretely, suggests that one might be better of with Physical Gold. The dollar keeps going AGAINST Gold, whilst the euro goes WITH Gold.

Physical Gold is much too heavy to lift it up with...paper-helicopters !

Flood the planet with as much dollars as the helicopters can carry...Physical Gold stays on the ground and will revalue as soon as one cannot breathe under the successive dollar layers, anymore.

The more, markets get *"phony"*, the closer we are to $-suffocation.

The dollar-supportive, $-papergold-market, will look "phony" enough, as soon as this umbrella cannot hold (protect from) the $-confetti rains anymore. As ssoon as the $-papergold-market umbrella starts leaking and collapses under the rain floods.

The euro (ECB) HAS A STATED FREEGOLD PRICING POLICY, that the dollar doesn't want to see and the euro doesn't want to show !!! The dollar MUST keep Gold under lock, because the euro is concepted to be functionally supported by FREEGOLD pricing !!!

This LT-political move IS on the rails ! Ignore it at your own peril...
Aristotle
(06/09/2004; 01:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 121932)
Hi Druid. I was passing by and saw the light on. Nice timing.
Thanks for the comments, taken as water and fertilizer by a long-neglected houseplant.

I'm glad to hear we've been able to breathe new life into the latent Golden flame residing within your colleague's mind. You said, "he is almost there about the concept of gold ownership."

Tell me, what's the *one* thing that still causes him the most trouble in the realm of Gold? Maybe I (or someone else hereabouts) can take the rough edges off it a bit. Gotta fly for now.

Gold. It's for your own good. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(06/09/2004; 02:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 121933)
The gold-market....
All financial media seem to agree on a $-POG projection in the $350-$450 price range (�/$ 1.22 >>> 1.08). Isn't it "nice" to have it all outlined so meticulously, for us !?

As long as an absolute majority can be holded (capped) into the gigantic paper-empire, we will be (remain) guided, advised...and all *prefabricated* (paper) projections will and can be materialized. Platonic "paperization" versus getting Physical !!!

Euroland has already (discretely) taken measures against further "derivitization" of financial matters.

Soon, most of the goldbugs will get sick and tired about the (paper)goldprice that isn't living up to their expectations !!! Analyse again, for what purpose(s) the dollar wellcomes POG-stagnation, through paper-inflation and why the euro, also likes a frozen goldprice...for the opposite reason(s)...NOW !

If one cannot accept (or suspect) that there are forces that wish to change the existing old papergold market into a new Physical Goldmarket ...the POG-behavior will frustrate them, increasingly.

It seems, that even Sinclair, might become a "real" mister gold... now that he seems to advocate Physical Gold so strongly (explicitely). His (and all others) main problem (mistake), remains his view on Gold as an exclusively dollar-centric-affaire ! Very understandable,... but wrong nevertheless.

Belgian
(06/09/2004; 03:36:16 MDT - Msg ID: 121934)
GOLDEN FLAME...(Ari)
To me, it is very understandable, that the Golden Flame, hasn't been...is not seen ! The flame has been masked by ALL, for such a long time (30 years).

But,...

What I don't understand is that the deceived general public does not yet start to see (question) the blatant over-maskerade... AND ITS REAL REASONS ! Many (gold-authorities included) continue to avoid asking the right questions. They continue to elaborate answers on the wrong questions !
This, for no other reason than that the majority wishes to adore paper-flames and that the REAL PHYSICAL things (GOLD), goes beyond them. Can't eat Gold...yadayada...
I don't drink coffee...but I'm speculating that its price is going to double(tripple).

Most don't even notice that Gold is being de-commoditized. Its price is now completely disconnected from the offer/demand equation. Who cares...and why should they ?
Fair enough.

WHY isn't the stockmarket crashing...? WHY do people accept to hold dollar-debtbergs for a 4%+ IR...? WHY is a debt-driven-political economy so much fun...?
*Amalgamate* ad infinitum... and one can rule for ever !

The goldprice cannot (will not) explode if there is nothing *** structural *** behind this price-revaluation !!!
It doesn't make any sense at all to "focus",...remain focussed, on Gold and its respective paper-prices...when there are so many other financial papers that move with much greater volatility and chances for profit/loses.

To castrate the above statement,...there is the mining-circus (stocks) and its moves. How many have been making a fortune with the gambling on gold/silver-mines ? And what percentage out of this mine-gamblers make speculative profits on a continious basis ? Same goes for other gold-derivatives. The goldmining business, publicly quoted, is a nice (deceptive) instrument for hiding Gold's real trail !!!

So has the stockmarket become the benchmark for evaluating the planet's economy. Gigantic phony "fans" that overpower the natural winds...

Not everybody wishes to continue living with this absurd-impossible degree of artificiality. Some wish to bring Gold back in its Physicality. The universal Wealth Reserve Asset !!!
Topaz
(06/09/2004; 04:20:39 MDT - Msg ID: 121935)
@Belgian.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.aspG'day B.
Works every time ... Roll out a credible handful of experts and have them all "predict" a rangebound price for say the next 12 mth's. This prognosis is not about "the next Yr" it's about NOW and the "perception" it creates for the next Year. No-one ever holds these prognosticators to account "in 12 mth's time" however and the World keeps turning.
Be patient Man, for with Gold in Hand your "faith" needs no prognosis.
Belgian
(06/09/2004; 05:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121936)
G-8 - UN - Iraq.....
A (temporary) reconciliation between $ and � !!! Don't look too much at the ball...always keep the game in mind.
Belgian
(06/09/2004; 05:25:10 MDT - Msg ID: 121937)
@Topaz
The 3 Italians + 1 Pole were liberated with the previously specified "$-helicopter"...
We save our souls with the yellow ! Also a bloodless liberation. What an amazing world !

I'm getting more and more patient...the more I find evidence that I've understood it all (the game), correctly.

Watch the coming (geo)political events ! Collect the coming statements (events) on your hard disk. They will make sense somewhat later.
Ned
(06/09/2004; 05:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121938)
Spot flat for last 2 hours in London?
I wonder what's going on? I see on Headline News of oil pipeline in Iraq blown up. Co-incidence? Hmmmm.
Ned
(06/09/2004; 06:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121939)
So that's why the weakness.......
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040608/markets_precious_comex_2.html"COMEX gold ended lower Tuesday as a rising dollar dampened demand for the metal after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. central bank intends to keep inflation in check, dealers said."

"Greenspan said during a satellite address to an international monetary panel in London that the Fed will do "what is required" to keep inflation in check if the forecast behind its view that interest rates can rise gradually turns out to be wrong."

-end-

Greenspan has lost touch w/ reality. He can't raise rates quickly. What's wrong w/ this man? Worse, what's wrong w/ the people that listen to him?

Real interest rates are marginally NEGATIVE now and will accelerate (more negative) over the next several months. How long do the criminals expect us to believe this 'low inflation' blathering? Good grief. Get a life.

(Digression)

I remember a poster a long, long time ago recalling a dream he had had about getting into a fist-fight w/ Alan Greenspan. Apparently the 2 were rolling about in an emotional bear-hug on his front lawn. I spent several days laughing about the dream.

It's not funny anymore. Greenspan is wrong this time.
misetich
(06/09/2004; 07:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121940)
Oil pipeline hit by sabotage north of Baghdad
http://203.150.224.53/page.news.php3?clid=1&id=115154&usrsess=1Snip:

BAGHDAD, June 9 (AFP) - Saboteurs ruptured overnight an oil pipeline linking Iraq's largest fuel refinery at Baiji, 200 kilometres (120 miles) north of Baghdad, to a power station, the electricity ministry said Wednesday.

"The pipeline, linking the Kirkuk oil fields and the Baiji refinery and feeding the Baiji power station, was sabotaged Tuesday night," the ministry said in a statement.
...............
Firemen were still battling Wednesday to put out the fire on the line, it added.
.......................
Assailants detonated sound grenades Sunday on the Kirkuk-Turkey pipeline, Iraq's main oil export artery from the north.
******************
Misetich

Attacks continue targetting Iraq's infrastrure - Oil production according to US government sources is supposedly 2.5 million barrels - however those reports are being disputed

Snip

U.S. REPORTS OF OIL OUTPUT DISPUTED


WASHINGTON [MENL] -- A leading analyst has disputed U.S. assertions of an increase in Iraqi crude oil output.

Gal Luft, director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said Iraq's oil output has not risen since the fall of the Saddam Hussein in April 2003. He said Iraqi exports remains about 1.5 million barrels per day. The Bush administration has asserted that Iraq produces 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.
http://menewsline.com/stories/2004/june/06_09_4.html

End of snip

Also as mentioned in earlier posts the situation in Iraq is HEATING UP rather than cooling - as Kurds are reportedly threatening to abandon the new Iraqi government and protesting against disbanding their militias.

Further US administrator Paul Bremer, vetoes radical Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr, in order barring militia members from politics
..........

In addition news media report

"Egypt and Saudi Arabia have formed an Arab front against US President George Bush's initiative for reform in the Middle East, boycotting the G8 summit where he was set to unveil the plan on Wednesday"

End of snip

The situation in the Middle East is growing WORSE by the day....and the situation remains very volatile and incindiary...

Risk premiums in oil and gold prices will INCREASE as unexpected events unfold.....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 07:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 121941)
"Leveraged to the hilt"
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040608.wcibc0608/BNStory/Business/Snip;

Low interest rates have left U.S. consumers "leveraged to the hilt," and even modest hikes could have a surprisingly swift effect on the broader economy, CIBC World Markets said Tuesday.

"Despite extremely low interest rates, households are more stretched today than they were at the start of any tightening cycle in the last two decades," CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Avery Shenfeld said in a report.

On a monthly basis, debt obligations now eat up about 18 per cent of the average household's monthly income.

That's just under the recent record, according to CIBC, and nearly 10 percentage points below where debt obligations were in 1994 when the Federal Reserve kicked off that tightening cycle.
..................
In addition to carrying more debt, Americans are also more exposed to rates when the Fed starts hiking. As of April, the report noted, 50 per cent of new mortgages were at adjustable rates.

"As a result almost one quarter of total household debt would be affected instantly by higher rates, more than 70 per cent higher than the exposure rate seen in 1994," the report said.
********************
Misetich

Complications arise not from the "accomodative" measured rate IR increases from the Feds but the MARKET - bond vigilantes action in increasing long term IR's to mitigate growing price and monetary inflation

Further the over leveraged consumer is struggling to obtain wage increases and genuine (non-temporary) jobs

Risks are rising - and Murphy's law is being challenged...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 08:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 121942)
Got Oil? Now, Try to Find Tankers to Carry It
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/09/business/09tankers.html?pagewanted=2Snip:

"Going into the fourth quarter, we could see a shortage of tankers" if oil production rises by the forecast two million barrels a day worldwide, said Magnus Fyhr, a Houston-based shipping analyst at Jefferies & Company
....................
The world's tanker fleet is already stretched thin by robust demand for oil, by looming deadlines for the phase-out of single-hull tankers for safety and environmental reasons, and by lengthening backlogs at the shipyards where new tankers are built. It is far from clear, experts say, whether the existing fleet can handle the new production that Saudi Arabia and others have promised in coming months.

"There is just barely enough shipping capacity at these high production levels," said Jeffrey Goetz, head of marine projects and consulting at Poten & Partners, a New York-based energy and ocean transport broker.

Charter rates for tankers, which can be even more volatile than oil prices, have been driven up in recent weeks by the tight market. Shipping costs may now add $3 a barrel to the price of oil delivered to the United States from the Middle East, up from about $2 earlier this year, analysts said.
*********************
Misetich

CHINA oil demand is INCREASING, as is Japan's, US and EU thus high oil prices are here to stay

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 08:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121943)
Electricity costs expected to rise
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2004-06-08-electricty-costs_x.htmSnip:

WASHINGTON � Gasoline prices aren't the only energy cost rising.
Retail electricity prices for the air conditioning season in June, July and August are expected to average 9.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, up 3.5% from 2003, according to data released Tuesday by the Energy Department.
.................
�Demand. The Energy Department expects electricity demand to be up 1.8% in 2004 from last year because of an improving economy and weather conditions.

�Input costs. Prices for essential ingredients to create electricity have been rising, making it more expensive to produce electricity. Higher prices for oil and natural gas, used to generate electricity, are also likely to keep coal costs higher because natural gas and coal can sometimes be swapped as energy sources.

Prices aren't the only worry. Pat Wood, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, warned last month that California is "skating on the edge" when it comes to its electricity supply.
****************
Misetich

Energy Price Inflation is SOARING - imbedding itself in the economy, as are medical health costs, insurance, property taxes all in the DOUBLE DIGITS

These higher costs are an indirect tax on consumers - thus it is expected consumer spending will "soften" going forward....

Will the bond vigilantes renaissance be the last straw?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 09:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121944)
Building costs nearly double
http://www.peninsulaclarion.com/stories/060804/new_060804new001001.shtmlSnip:

Lumber and plywood prices have nearly doubled since hitting seasonal lows last fall, the increase in the cost of many steel products has reached double digits, and the prices on finished products are rising as well, say Alaska building materials suppliers.

To the residential contractor, that means higher costs � increases they pass on to home buyers who have watched the cost of a typical $150,000 to $175,000 home jump $5,000 to $7,000 over the last year.
..................

A typical sheet of 1/2-inch construction grade plywood has risen from a low of $16 to as high as $27, while an equivalent sheet of OSB (Oriented Strand Board), a plywood-like product composed of wood chips glued together into sheets, has jumped from $10 a sheet to $23 a sheet since late last year, Turkington said.
.................
Meanwhile, steel products, which usually show only small annual inflation rates and often may hold steady for a year or more, as well as other products, are seeing double-digit inflation, Turkington added.

"We usually see 1-percent to 2-percent increases on steel, cabinets, carpets, insulation, Sheetrock. Now we're seeing anywhere from 12 percent to 30 percent on those products," he said.

The cost of rebar (steel rods used to strengthen concrete) has doubled. Manufactured roofing has gone up 20 percent to 25 percent, he said.
.................
*******************
Misetich

Central bankers worldwide, are busy promoting the concept of "price inflation" is contained..... as their fiat printing presses go into overdrive

Here's a snip from the Mogambo Guru....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty060904.html

Snip

Jay Taylor: "While our own monetary measures may be growing at a reasonably modest pace, globally it is exploding. For example, according to my stats, M-3 over the past 52 weeks has grown by about 4.5% to 9,244 billion (or 9.244 trillion). By comparison, Global U.S. Dollar Liquidity has been on a tear. This measure of global liquidity, which is comprised of a monetary base plus foreign bank holdings of U.S. dollars, has risen over the past 52 weeks at an astounding rate of 20.39%! Clearly what has been happening is that the central banks have been printing their own currency and then buying our dollars (mostly U.S. Treasuries) in a 1930s-like beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluation scheme."

End of snip

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 09:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 121945)
One Month - And Counting?
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.htmlSnip:

"The current Gold correction has found support, if not yet a proven bottom. Last week, that was not the case. This week, if you were looking for an opportunity to add to your Gold holdings, you have found one. Nuff said?
.........................
On top of that, there are growing "noises" out of Japan from the huge investment funds there to the effect that they are cutting back on their investment on "foreign" (read US Treasury) bonds. To quote an "official" from one of these funds" "...we cannot buy high risk assets.". We do not think that Mr Stone at the US Treasury would be to happy to hear his beloved debt paper referred to as "high risk assets."

But when looking at the totality of the financial situation inside the US, the only thing which is astonishing is how long it has taken the rest of the world to begin to wake up to the fact that $US denominated debt paper IS "high risk assets".

Consider the fact, mentioned above, that the last time that the Fed actually raised official US interest rates (from 6.00% to 6.50%) was in May 2000 - four years ago. Remember that time frame when you consider this. The US M-2 money measure in 1980 - after a decade which is universally known as the decade of inflation - totalled $US 1.5 TRILLION. This amount had been built up over the 200 years of the existence of the United States.

In a little over four years - from early 2000 to May 2004 - the US M2 money measure has increased by -- wait for it -- $US 1.5 TRILLION. It took the US 200 years (roughly 1780-1980) - replete with settlement and political integration and wars and recessions and investment booms and everything else which goes into a timespan of TWO CENTURIES - to build up a "money supply" of $US 1.5 TRILLION.
...................
The US government has already ramped their deficit spending up to $US 500 Billion a year plus while US trade deficits are also running at an annual rate of well over $US 500 Billion. But it is a well known fact that US CONSUMER SPENDING accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, and therefore is the most important item in the measurement of US economic "growth".

Take this away, or even lower it a little (see the April figure above), and the US government will find it VERY difficult to cover for the "gap" through increased deficit spending - ESPECIALLY in an environment in which US official interest rates are RISING.

****************
Misetich

The Captain concludes....."In such circumstances, Gold as financial insurance is absolutely MANDATORY. Any "capital gains" is simply a bonus. But there is no-one who is in the slightest way concerned with the economic future who can afford NOT to own Gold. The situation is NOT sustainable. It is merely a question of whether the wheels fall off BEFORE the Fed next meets, or afterward."

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Melting Pot
(06/09/2004; 09:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 121946)
The M3 Explosion .pdf (A must read)
http://www.jsmineset.com/miscfiles/PollockM3.pdf
Dear Friends,

My friend Warren Pollock has a most intriguing take on the huge explosion of M3 recently.

His position lends support to my commentary that the Fed will not deliver significant interest rate increases either in 2004 or 2005. Warren's take is essential reading and you can access his report in PDF format by clicking here.

Jim Sinclair

So the implosion is about to begin in the next 60 days? No wonder they smacking gold around trying to find the exits!

Good luck to us all

NIA



misetich
(06/09/2004; 10:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 121947)
Household Saving Has Declined, Notably in US-Study
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=5383936Snip:

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Households across the euro zone, Japan and the United States are saving far less of their income now than they were ten years ago, a study published on Wednesday showed.

The joint study by the European Central Bank and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) attempts for the first time to calculate the ratio of household savings to disposable income on a comparable basis across the world's three most industrialized regions.

"Although the ratios for all three economic areas declined in the course of the 1990s, the difference between the ratios in the euro area (9.6 percent in 2002) and the United States (2.4 percent in 2002) is significant and has even risen during that period," said the study, which was published on the ECB's Web Site.

"Japan has had a household saving ratio close to that of the euro area, except for 2001 and 2002 (5.2 percent)," it added.

By contrast, savings ratios in 1991 were 13.8 percent in the euro zone and Japan, and 7.5 percent in the United States, the data showed.
.......................
*****************
Misetich

Personal savings rate decline in the US roughly coincides with the birth of the Asset Inflation bubbles - first the SM and now housing

The US dependency on foreign funding has increased....at the most inopportune time - as budget deficits are soaring -and SM ROI are stagnant...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Federal_Reserves
(06/09/2004; 10:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121948)
M3 explosion
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page15.pdfAs rates rise, dollars leave stocks and bonds and are deposited in retail money funds, and CD's both of which hold value and ramp the nomimal supply of money. The attached link show how these components have been ramping.

The assets in the economy resembles a complex set of holding tanks (stocks, bonds, money market, banks, real assets) and the liquidity pipeline (M1) which connect the tanks. Its constantly moving around, based on relative risk and return. Debt represents
the ground upon which it all rests. Is the government and private debt granite or a sand dune? Any contraction in that debt places strain upon the infrastructure resting upon it.


misetich
(06/09/2004; 10:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 121949)
Pension funds spread risk from equities to oil
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=LXKTB3EJ0N2MYCRBAELCFFA?type=reutersEdgeNews&storyID=524848§ion=financeSnip:

Pension funds invest for the longer term.

Increasingly, they are viewing commodities as a constant counterweight to more traditional asset classes, analysts say.
....................

A conference at the end of May in London was the first of its kind to focus exclusively on commodities as an asset class and lured investment managers from Europe and the United States.

"(It) supports the view that investment in commodities is now moving into the mainstream and is becoming a viable option for many institutional investors," Norrish said.

Some of Europe's biggest pension funds led the way by devoting a small part of their portfolio to commodities.
................
Nearly 80 percent of its commodity investment is in energy. The rest is in metals, livestock and agriculture.
....................
British pension funds have been wary of commodities, but the mood is changing.
......................
"Like many alternative asset classes, commodities is on our agenda for consideration in the future," Charlie Metcalf, Hermes' deputy chief executive said.
...................
While oil potentially gives the biggest returns, other buoyant markets include base metals like copper and nickel, which have reached nine and 15-year highs.

Analysts expect commodities to continue to draw support from economic growth, especially in China, which spurs demand.

"China is always the headline-grabber but other countries such as India and Brazil are emerging as well," said James Proudlock, head of commodity sales at UBS Investment Bank.

He said Europe was ahead of the game, compared with the United States, in assessing the advantages of commodities.

"In Europe, (pension funds) have been quicker to respond... they were quite quick to diversify and have done very well on that position," Proudlock said.
****************
Misetich

A sign of the times....as pension fund managers who have missed the start of the bull market in commodities are awakening - which in itself reinforces the trend...of higher commodity prices....

....thus fuelling HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/09/2004; 10:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 121950)
Consumer Confidence Approaches Year Low
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040609_997.htmlSnip:

NEW YORK June 9, 2004 � Overall consumer confidence hovered last week near its low for the year, according to an ABC News/Money Magazine poll.
The poll's consumer comfort index slipped one point to negative 19 for the week ending Sunday, down from negative 18 a week earlier, according to the report released Tuesday.

The index has shed eight points since mid-May and is just three points above its 2004 low of negative 22, which it reached in March.
.......................
**************
Misetich

As The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues fuelling price inflation, it is to be expected to reduce and erode consumer confidence further -

Worst still consumers are NOT BUYING the job creation spin.....or the "no inflation spin"....

The flock is being lost....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Great Albino Bat
(06/09/2004; 10:54:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121951)
We are in the twilight zone...

I refer to the twilight zone between the low interest inveronment we have lived through, and the new, rising and ever higher interest rate environment which is now coming into being.

Like sunset, it is hard to pinpoint the exact moment when interest rates rise - not because it is convenient to have them rise, mind you, but because there is no other option! Greenspan is like the fly on the horse's head, with regard to interest rates. He goes with the horse, although he claims he gives orders to the horse.

So, since I am not too interested in graphs and statistics, I can't tell if interest rates have actually begun to rise. Others opinions are more valid, on that.

What I do know, is that this stage of rising interest rates is going to last a long time, and that the consequence of this stage will be a USA (and world!) that looks very, very different from what it appears to be today.

High interest is like fever: it signals illness, weakness. To think that raising interest rates is going to improve the value of the dollar, is ludicrous! Or that rising interest rates can damage the dollar price of gold for any length of time - that's also a laughable concept.

The only thing that would strengthen the dollar, is TO STOP CREATING IT. And that's not going to happen. Nobody wants to die today. We all prefer to die tomorrow.

Watch the developing death spiral of the dollar, from the safe haven of physical gold.

The GAB
MK
(06/09/2004; 12:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121953)
As the wheel turns.......An economic soap opera
GAB: Just want to mention that I concur with your analysis on inflation and add a few thoughts. Please excuse some of the groundwork as it's for those who are new to gold and trying to get their legs underneath them on Greenspan's latest statements.

Inflation is created at the source, then the source attempts to qualify the definition by making the public believe that it translates to an increase in prices. Prices increase because the money supply increases at a rate faster than production of goods and services. Cause and effect. Not effect and cause.

I was thinking this morning -- as I read Alan Greenspan's assurances that he will act to stem inflation should it act up -- that the head of the German central bank in the early 1920s had to have taken a public posture much like the Fed chairman did yesterday. What other position could he (or Greenspan) possibly assume?? But just because you say you will stem inflation that doesn't mean you will be successful. One cannot alter the effect without first dealing with the causes. And I'll just throw out one example of that:

The most direct cause of inflation is the Federal Reserve buying up U.S. debt. Now we have additional "monetizers" in Japan and China, so we have inflation coming from more than one direction. Japan is recovering because it is inflating its own economy through the purchase of U.S. debt. At the same time, the Federal government has no intention of curtailing the deficits. So here is a primary cause of inflation that is not being dealt with.

Now it should begin to come into focus the differences between (once again) perception and reality -- something we discussed last week. No matter what the chairman of the Fed does he cannot hold up his hand and order the tide to withdraw, however, he can try to make people believe that he can. Last week, if recall correctly, we had the ECB explaining to the European people that rising oil prices really didn't matter in the scheme of things -- that rising oil was a minor event in the European economy. The headlines this morning talked about the Fed chairman worrying about the price of oil being an inducement to inflation. Which perception in correct? More importantly how much does either position have to do with creating the right political perception and how much with hard economic reality?

Gold reacted to the perception again today by going down, and that presents a buying opportunity because massive amounts of inflation has been created continuously for months on end, and that inflation is now showing up in the oil price and prices for just about everything else. In essence, nothing has changed, but more words floating in the ether between perception and reality.

During the 1970s we had one occurrence after another of the Fed chairman attempting to "jawbone" the economic perception. For a few days gold withdrew, stocks did well, and the press talked about how the Fed had everything under control. It just got worse instead. There's not much that can be done at the moment without aborting the fragile recovery just put into motion.

This is all talk. The inflation has already been created. It's just a matter of time until the public becomes fully aware of it. By that time, the Fed will have a new tact to try to sell to the American people.

As the wheel turns...........

Great Albino Bat
(06/09/2004; 12:29:50 MDT - Msg ID: 121954)
Thanks, Alan! You made my day...

I picked up a nice amount of the shiny today, at such a cheap price! Thanks for the break, Alan!

This gold is the finest merchandise in the world, nowhere rejected! Recognized since the dawn of humanity for its lustre, durability, weight, malleability and...so many other qualities that have produced murder and mayhem in its quest.

Alan, in your schizo mind, in your youth, you said you were "pro-gold" and consorted with that arrogant Rand crowd - how snooty they were. But, when I did read your essay back in the 60's - I have it bound into my set of copies of "The Objectivist" - I noticed even then, YOU WERE NOT ON THE LEVEL! Yes, you mouthed some things about gold that were acceptable to your objectivist clique. But, tucked in there, were your hedges. You never were in the gold camp - just parking there for a while. MOst people did not notice your little cop-out remarks. I noticed them clearly. Time has FULLY JUSTIFIED MY ASSESSMENT OF YOUR DEFECTIVE MORAL CHARACTER.

Then, you built yourself a separate section of your mind, where you were going to think in terms of the Powers That Be, so you could BE SOMEBODY IMPORTANT. You sold out well and early. "I'll think one thing in one part of my mind, and reserve another section for what has to be said and practised."

The result of double-think, which is what you practise, Alan, is intellectual breakdown. You are now caught up so deeply in the justification and perpetuation of the crime of paper and electronic money, that you can't really think at all any more. You have reached intellectual paralysis.

What a mess to make of your miserable life, Alan. I pity you. Rather, I pity and despise you, also.

So, continue to offer us value for so little in return: solid gold for your funny money!

Some of the weaker amongst us, would like to see the price of gold rocket. Maybe so would I. But, on the other hand, if we can get a lot more, and on the cheap - what's wrong with that? It always has been better to buy bargains!

Gold: the stuff that opens lovely ladies' chambers, that opens the doors to Ministries and Presidents. That bribes generals and colonels. Always did and always will!

Load up folks! Bargain prices today. Sale prices may not last.

The GAB

TownCrier
(06/09/2004; 12:41:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121955)
Yesterday I spoke about Fed actions that do not seem consistent with expectations for an imminent policy tightening and rate hike
Today we see more of the same.

Yesterday, while the fed funds market was trading (below FOMC 1% target) at 0.96 percent, the Fed added $6 billion in overnight cash, plus $1 billion in permanent cash through the outright purchase of Treasuries dated 2008 to 2012.

Today, with fed funds still in line with the Fed's historically low target, the Trading Desk nevertheless felt compelled to intervene once again in the open market, replacing the maturing overnight repos with with a larger injection of $9.25 billion overnight repos.

And again, most significantly, the Fed for the second day in a row engaged in the outright purchase of Treasuries, today's coupon pass targeting issues dated January 2006 to February 2007, amounting to $1.035 billion securities taken off the market, with the equivalent in fresh new cash reserves added to the nation's commercial banking system, now available to further expand the money supply.

Banks can do this type of thing with paper gold, too, but they can't do it with real gold. Make sure you hitch your wagon to the only real horse out there. It's got to be able to pull you up to higher ground when the money rains fill the valleys with a flood of rotting paper, green and yellow alike.

R.
misetich
(06/09/2004; 12:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 121956)
U.S. MAY PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DELAYED INDEFINITELY
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?doctype=-2≻id=0&siteid=mktw2:38pm 06/09/04 U.S. MAY PRODUCER PRICE INDEX DELAYED INDEFINITELY

**************
Misetich

ANOTHER glitch! Price Inflation is BALLOONING ...nowhere to hide...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/09/2004; 13:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 121957)
Exercise your savings decisions to enjoy personal sovereignty and security
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations???

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

melda laure
(06/09/2004; 13:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 121958)
(No Subject)


"My friend Warren Pollock has a most intriguing take on the huge explosion of M3 recently.

His position lends support to my commentary that the Fed will not deliver significant interest rate increases either in 2004 or 2005. "


I think it is a great mistake to assume that the price set on fresh credit uniquely determines how much credit must be issued to keep the price there. We ARE in the twilight zone. At a fixed price, demand could be high, medium, or even negative. Slightly higher rates and we could see even higher rates of printing. Is Mr Greenspan holding back the horses of the economy? Or is he pushing? And if the cart moves, does he stop pushing? does he pull? does he push even harder? He was pushing all the while the cart was slowing down. Now he will push for all he's worth even as the cart speeds up.
misetich
(06/09/2004; 13:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 121959)
G-8 members unsettled by U.S. trade, budget deficits
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4995885∾tion=articleSnip:

SAVANNAH, Ga. (AFX) -- The risk that record U.S. trade and budget deficits could hold negative consequences for currencies and global interest rates is a cause of concern for the world's leading industrial powers, French President Jacques Chirac said Wednesday. There is "potential concern" among the Group of Eight leaders who have gathered for multilateral talks about what the "eventual consequence" of unchecked U.S. deficits would mean for the global economy, the French president told reporters. Chirac met Wednesday morning with President Bush in a bilateral discussion as part of the three-day summit of the G-8 heads of state at the Sea Island resort just off the Georgia coast. The summit has so far focused on fortifying stability in Iraq in the wake of a hard-sought resolution passed Tuesday by the United Nations that lends support to the handover of control to the Iraqi people at month's end. But global economic issues are sharing the stage with global security. The United States had a record trade deficit of $46 billion on its books for March, led in large part by a record oil deficit as energy prices soared. The red ink carries over to the federal government. The White House has projected a fiscal year budget shortfall of $521 billion despite rising tax receipts as the economy gathers steam. Speaking this week at a separate event, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called the record federal budget deficit "reasonably benevolent" in its risks for the U.S. economy. Chirac said that Bush acknowledged the concerns over U.S. deficits. Bush "was perfectly conscious of this situation," Chirac said. Bush was expected to push Europe at the week's meetings to do more to spur global growth. Meanwhile, Chirac said that he believes the "growth trend is picking up" in Europe
..........................
Chirac said he and Bush agreed there were a "number of uncertainties" surrounding oil prices. But, he said, both leaders felt their respective countries could consider steps to "try and keep in check" oil consumption, while also exploring alternative fuels
***************
Misetich

"...also exploring alternative fuels..." (hot air?)- amazing how "globlal leaders" are caught unprepared ....by CHINA's emergence in the world raw materials and energy consumption stage....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express- Part ll
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/09/2004; 14:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 121960)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

--(excerpts)--

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled over $6 per ounce Wednesday on dealer and fund selling spurred by the sharp gains registered by the U.S. dollar. The most-active Aug contract settled $6.60 lower at $385.20 per ounce.

The U.S. currency sprang to 10-day highs against the euro and eight-day highs on the U.S. dollar index on short covering and investor buying spurred by hawkish comments made Tuesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

... the uncertain geopolitical climate and shortened trading week for former President Ronald Reagan's funeral on Friday made players reluctant to engage in heavy selling in gold, and kept the $385 region intact as a layer of support.

Dealers said that should the U.S. dollar continue to gain ground, closer tests of the integrity of that support should be allowed over the near term. Indeed, a swoop to the $382-$383 region has not been ruled out by some amid the expectedly choppy conditions seen prevailing Thursday. But, aggressive short selling by speculative players is deemed unlikely over the near term to emerge to leave prices with a mainly sideways heading over the coming days...
Cavan Man
(06/09/2004; 14:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121961)
USAG121954
HOF MATERIAL
Cavan Man
(06/09/2004; 14:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121962)
Speaking of PPI.....
Corrugated box prices are going up, up and away. There will be three double digit increases this year. Linerboard benchmark %550/ton by year end. ALL paper grades are moving. Have a nice day AG....CM
TownCrier
(06/09/2004; 14:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121963)
June 9th -- On this day in history...
In 1837 the Republic of Texas authorized the issuance of money.

More importantly, looking back just 4 days, we see the anniversary of a significant event on June 5th.

On that day in 1933 occurred the abrogation of the gold standard. Then, for the next 41+ years it was made illegal by the U.S. government for American citizens to own gold bullion -- until overturned by the Ford administration effective January 1, 1975.

What better way to say "In your face!" to that ugly history than with a gold purchase today? Exercise your independence and strength of will and economic savvy.

R.
Cavan Man
(06/09/2004; 15:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 121964)
Speaking of employment growth....
We have an entry level position in Customer Service--pay is not much at all. Had 80 applicants in the wink of an eye; many had Masters Degrees.
TownCrier
(06/09/2004; 15:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 121965)
"All show and no glow."
http://www.treas.gov/education/fact-sheets/currency/fort-knox.htmlThe Fort Knox Bullion Depository: You can see the building from afar, but not the contents.

Below are excerpts from the url.

The Depository was completed in December 1936 at a cost of $560,000.

The two-story basement and attic building is constructed of granite, steel and concrete. Its exterior dimensions measure 105 feet by 121 feet. Its height is 42 feet above ground level.


Within the building is a two level steel and concrete vault that is divided into compartments. The vault door weighs more than 20 tons. No one person is entrusted with the combination. Various members of the Depository staff must dial separate combinations known only to them.

The vault casing is constructed of steel plates, steel I-beams and steel cylinders laced with hoop bands and encased in concrete. The vault roof is of similar construction and is independent of the Depository roof.

The outer wall of the Depository is constructed of granite lined with concrete. Construction materials used on the building included 16,500 cubic feet of granite, 4,200 cubic yards of concrete, 750 tons of reinforcing steel and 670 tons of structural steel.

At each corner of the structure on the outside, but connected with it, are four guard boxes. Sentry boxes, similar to the guard boxes at the corners of the Depository, are located at the entrance gate. A driveway encircles the building and a steel fence marks the boundaries of the site.

The building is equipped with the latest and most modern protective devices. The nearby Army Post provides additional protection. The Depository is equipped with its own emergency power plant, water system and other facilities. In the basement is a pistol range for use by the guards.

The gold stored in the Depository is in the form of standard mint bars of almost pure gold or coin gold bars resulting from the melting of gold coins.

The fine gold bars contain approximately 400 troy ounces of gold, worth $16,888.00 (based on the statutory price of $42.22 per ounce).

No visitors are permitted at the Depository. This policy was adopted when the Depository was established, and is strictly enforced.

----(from url)-----

No visitors allowed at such a fine government facility... Think of the tourism dollars that are being foregone by an inexplicable policy.

As I said, you can describe this attraction as "All show and no glow," a building that might as well be filled with used matchsticks.

Seeing is believing, and possession is nine-tenths of the law (give or take a tenth). If you want the assurance of gold for yourself and your family, the only way you'll get it to buy it. Happily, it is legal again to do so, and the fine staff at USAGOLD~Centennial stand ready to assist you in that wise endeavor.

R.
Great Albino Bat
(06/09/2004; 15:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 121966)
Speaking of Anniversaries...

Truly this is a historic date!

No less a personage that DONALD DUCK was born on this day, 70 years ago. Happy Birthday, Unca' Donald!

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(06/09/2004; 15:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 121967)
On an irrelevant personal note, more anniversaries...

On this date, my father-in-law was born.
On this date, my father and mother-in-law were married.
On this date, my wife was born.
On this date, my bride and I were formally engaged to be married, at 19 and 22.

Praise God from Whom all blessings flow!

The GAB
Boilermaker
(06/09/2004; 15:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 121968)
GAB
A great day for a great member of the round table. May your days continue to be filled with living and may you live to see our gold bug's prophesy. Best wishes for you, sir!
Boilermaker

TownCrier
(06/09/2004; 16:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121969)
Slightly overripe news
Three cheers for the Treasury Department. Woe upon the bond holders.

On May 15th the Treasury exercised its right to pull the plug and cease making any further semi-annual interest payments on the callable 30-year bonds it issued May 1979.

By ceasing interest payments, the Treasury will save itself 9-1/8 percent on the outstanding issue's remain ten coupons, and thus leave the bondholders with something to think about for the sixth such time in the past 4 years.

______________
The Treasury Department called for redemption on May 15, 2004, a 30-year bond issued in May 1979. The bond is the 9 1/8 Percent Treasury Bond of 2004-2009, CUSIP 912810CG1.

Under terms of the call, the bond stopped paying interest on May 15, 2004.
________________

Choose gold. It does not rust or tarnish in a sign that Mother Nature does not ever recall this most economically precious ore.

R.
Gandalf the White
(06/09/2004; 16:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 121970)
OOPS !!! Today's Gold PAPER blizzard results !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GOn the GOLD P&F Chart that is !
It shows a RED "6" (for June) and two RED "X"'s
ANOTHER gift chance to GATHER the YELLOW !!
BTW, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK !
AND the new chant is: $400. $400. $400.
<;-)
Golden Lionheart
(06/09/2004; 16:30:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121971)
Donald Duck?
Hey folks, lets have some relevence on this site!

IMHO the next stop for gold will be $345 before we see a sustained rise starting in September. Ciao/
Bulldog
(06/09/2004; 16:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 121972)
Derivatives
I was reading the Annual Report of the Alberta Workers' Compensation Board and they have $4Billion invested to cover future obligations to injured workers. Included is $465Million in derivatives. The note to the financials says they do not get involved with counterparties with a rating less than BBB.
Goldendome
(06/09/2004; 17:06:35 MDT - Msg ID: 121973)
Large regional investment firm files bankruptcy!

Edited excerpts from The Spokesman Review newspaper
Wed. June 10, 2004.
-------------------------------------------
It's among the biggest financial disasters in Spokane history [Metropolitan Mortgage & Securities, bankruptcy] and has some of the hallmarks of recent accounting scandals within Enron Corp. and Adelphia Communications that undermined investor confidence in the financial markets. [...] Tens of thousands of investors, mostly senior citizens living in the Northwest, stand to lose more than a half-billion dollars invested with Metropolitan.

[...]Two lawyers involved with Metropolitan's bankruptcy say bondholders could recover 15 cents to 20 cents on the dollar if the company is liquidated.


Special examiner Samuel Maizel sharply criticized Earnst & Young LLP for auditing practices that failed to reveal a doomed company.[...]"Unfortunately, (Ernst & Young) placed a greater importance on the fees paid by Metropolitan than in protecting investors."

Maizel's report provided examples of how Metropolitan, unable to earn a profit on its vast portfolio of investments and loans, fell into a pattern of making 11th-hour business deals designed to turn losses into profits at the end of the year. [These transactions were referred to as "rabbit transactions," because they were akin to pulling a rabbit out of the hat.]

The [examination]effort culminated Tuesday in a 260-page report that includes thousands of pages of exhibits that reveal Metropolitan strategies that average investors were never told about.
Among them:
*That Metropolitan cherry-picked real estate appraisals that allowed it to inflate loan and property values.
*That the firm used inter-company transactions to hide losses and prevent certain loans from going into default.
*And that Metropolitan was essentially a "deal house" where employees were paid extra to close as many transactions as possible, irrespective of quality.
---------------------------------

Goldendome: Another sorry example of the financial calamity that is and still awaits in the paper markets. Overall, this bankruptcy is small-potatos in the grand scheme of the world wide paper markets...But, to those unfortunate thousands involved in this fiasco, some real hardships and loss of lifestyle are sure tofollow. ----Those of you that have not done so to this point: Put some of your assets and savings into Physical Gold bullion; it will never get burned like these paper assets and more that will follow!
Goldendome
(06/09/2004; 17:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 121974)
Golden Lionheart--Question on your opinion.
If gold goes to $345, will you be a buyer?

I will be...all the way down. But then, unlike touching the bottom of a lake, it's difficult to tell where the bottom was, until you're well above it once more.
Golden Lionheart
(06/09/2004; 17:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 121975)
Goldendome - Gold at $345
I certainly will!
misetich
(06/09/2004; 18:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 121976)
Oil Price and Interest Rate Hikes:A Lethal Combination
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2004/3121oil_inflation.htmlSnip:

The U.S. economy's special vulnerability reflects several underlying factors. First, the price of oil is historically inter-linked with the price of coal and natural gas: When the oil price rises, they rise in tandem. Second, the U.S. economy is possibly the most dependent upon fossil fuels of any industrial nation. When fossil fuel prices rise as a group, this triggers great instabilities in the fossil fuel-addicted economy. Third, the oil price increase feeds the hyperinflation which destabilizes the financial markets.

Moreover, the oil price increase is not occurring within a vacuum, but within a growing systemic financial breakdown, punctuated by rising interest rates. The increasing rates can pop the overly leveraged U.S. economic-financial system. The combination of the rising oil price with mounting interest rates will be lethal.
....................
All of this is unfolding before Greenspan's expected raising of rates. Once rates are pushed up in an economy overhung with $36 trillion in debt of all types�and at minimum $70-80 trillion in notional amount of derivatives contracts outstanding�all hell will break loose.
**************
Misetich

To some the above depicted scenario by by Richard Freeman is total nonsense to others who share Mr. Freeman's vision, of tight energy supplies and hence higher prices, creating a chaotic financial environment where worldwide price inflation skyrockets prompting bond vigilantes to increase long term yields upwards - double taxing consumers and the financial system which is dependent on low IR environment...

The RISKS are rising and prudent investors would be wise to ADD to their Physical Gold portfolio at these give away prices...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
miner49er
(06/09/2004; 18:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 121977)
Belgian @ those winds of change...
Dearest Belgian... so many months (years now?) since we've corresponded. I am so busy, I scarcely read much on the forum, but do scan frequently for those who I know have something to say, and you good Sir are on the (short) list ;->.

Just a quick word to say thank you for the time you take at this forum to express your thoughts. Always great stuff.

Yes, this artificial and high-powered electric fan blows its "phony" winds hard all day at this golden flame in an effort to extinguish it. Whereas those natural winds, if left to be, would quite differently create a supportive draft that would feed the flame into a quite a blazing light, would they not?

Warmest regards,
miner
Aristotle
(06/09/2004; 18:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121978)
miner-man, Belgian
I love that you and Belgian have expanded upon the Golden Flame idea. I like your idea of the contrasting artificial winds (to extinguish) versus the natural airs of nourishment.

You know what we are, my fine fellows? We're part of the happy middle-ground.

Resembling something that might be found at a blacksmith's shop, we're the bellows that further fuel the natural flame into vibrant life as FreeGold -- an intelligently tended utility capable of reforging the iron chains of the world into wheelbarrows, hammers, rivets, and I-beams.

Like a coiled spring residing in every nook and cranny of the world, unlock the latent potential of mankind's stifled economic will and you've given the world a tremendous leap forward.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Dollar Bill
(06/09/2004; 19:03:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121979)
.,.
misetich posted this from the g8 meeting. Has to be the quote of the day or week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called the record federal budget deficit "reasonably benevolent" in its risks for the U.S. economy. Chirac said that Bush acknowledged the concerns over U.S. deficits. Bush "was perfectly conscious of this situation," Chirac said.
Chirac said he and Bush agreed there were a "number of uncertainties" surrounding oil prices. But, he said, both leaders felt their respective countries could consider steps to "try and keep in check" oil consumption, while also exploring alternative fuels
TheJuniorMiner
(06/09/2004; 19:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 121980)
Why not one world currency �.The Almighty Dollar
As the Central Bankers of the world sit down and meet they propose that with one currency everyone will benefit�

The Chinese agree as they already use it, have too much of it, and they might as well spend it.

The Japanese say "man we wouldn't have to buy the damn things anymore. Sounds great to us"

The Latin's say " This will bring back old times and we really understand a currency that depreciates. We dislike change anyway.

The Canadians, well they sell everything they have to the Americans and realize that it would facilitate trade.

The Europeans though a little reluctant see the advantage of low balling precious metals, energy and raw materials with a worthless currency and understand that the Fed will give them more if they need, agree.

And there it is

Everyone must have dollars

Glenn.
Topaz
(06/09/2004; 19:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 121981)
Oil/DX reconnect.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=We witness an unusual return to equilibrium here as a weakening Yield day spurs the Dollar and dampens the decline in Oil.
The Fed has it's hands well and truly full at this point as they endeavour to rein in the entire curve.

We can but wish them well!



Dollar Bill
(06/09/2004; 19:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 121982)
.,.
Glenn, methinks you guessed it.
"The Europeans, though a little reluctant, see the advantage of low balling precious metals, energy and raw materials with a worthless currency and understand that the Fed will give them more if they need, agree."

Dollar Bill
(06/09/2004; 19:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121983)
.,.
Did chirac just toss Kerry off a cliff? or out the window?
Or off the radar screen? Seems like he has given up on Kerry. This embrace of Bush.......to that extent......
White Hills
(06/09/2004; 22:46:38 MDT - Msg ID: 121984)
Gold is where you find it!
I thought I would lighten up thing a little and relate and discuss Gold and where to get it. Since retiring and no longer bringing in the big Bucks I can no longer buy anymore gold and instead of just sitting on what I have I decided to DIG for it. Living in the GOLD country of the Southwest helps as it is all over the place. Like everything it is not easy but the problem isn't finding it but finding enough of it. If you have never mined for gold it is hard to imagine the thrill involved when you see that lovely yellow stuff right out of the ground and in your pan.After searching for it and then digging it up just like potatoes it is amazing. It isn't hard to understand man's fascination with the stuff. I have been going prospecting with a friend of mine twice a week about 16 miles from where I live. Everywhere we dig we get color, flakes, pickers and an occasional NUGGET. It is hard work but good exercise and it culminates in some more gold in the old pouch. Two weeks ago we hit a patch which included a pretty good nugget. As usual after we cleaned up the days take we drew to see who would get the nugget. As it happens I drew the nugget. I offered to give him the nugget but he wouldn't take it as we always go 50/50 on the draw. He then wanted to buy it so I said ok $5.00, he wouldn't buy it for that so he offered me $50.00 which I had to take. He now has it on display at his home in Lake Las Vegas and is like a kid showing it to all his friends. We now have more and more FRIENDS that want to go with us. The $50.00 will go toward more gold as I have also been saving up to buy some more coins. Just think every ounce I find is instant wealth creation.It only costs me a little sweat. We are still looking for the BIG one and I have no doubt but that I will find it. Want GOLD and have money, buy it from USA GOLD. Want Gold and you don't have money go dig for it and good luck. White Hills
Druid
(06/09/2004; 22:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 121985)
misetich (06/09/04; 18:00:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 121976)

Druid: Excellent read misetich. My bet is that (and I'm all in) the Fed will "bluff" about rate hikes but will not follow through because the reaction to it would be fast and brutal in various markets across the spectrum. The Fed would thus be linked (as well should be) as the cause of the crash of all financial crashes(the mother of all crashes). It would be better to talk rate hikes up and let the private players crash the system and then blame "capitalism" in every headline page across America as having failed again.

The Fed can continue to patch every trillion dollar leak that keeps appearing for a little while longer before inflation becomes so obvious that even the gold futures traders might actually discern that the system is rigged, broke....and thus throw in the towel calling it a career.

I'll keep buying the shiny up until I'm priced out of doing so.

slingshot
(06/09/2004; 23:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 121986)
The Prophecy of Oro
Gandalf had left the castle early that morning, greeting the sun. He rode north on Shadowfax at a slow gallop. The countryside was beautiful for summer had come. It was not long before he came upon a new village. Cottages dotted the landscape and tilled soil showed good growth and the promise of a fruitful bounty. From the fields he could see those at work stop and wave to him. Gandalf waved back and it did him good to see so much done in such a short time since his returned from Hammerton.
Village to village he rode, carefully remembering each one.
As Gandalf travel further away from the castle, the cottages became scarce and then the countryside was as it was before.
Cresting a hill, Gandalf could see the magnificent trees of the Althean Forest. The sight was as stunning as the first time he had seen them. Far in the distance he could see smoke rising and straining to see its source saw a single structure at the trees base.
A lodge of considerable size had been built. A halfway point to Hammerton. Now this lodge appealed to Gandalf. The perfect place to think about that awakening in the night.
Arriving he dismounted and tied Shadowfax to the rail. The Inn had others inside by the horses already there.
He heard the sounds of laughter and when he entered was surprized as to how many was inside. Making his way to a small table Gandalf sat down. Song filled the air as tankards banged the tables keeping time with the music of the minstrels. Ordering a tankard of ale, he was tapped on the shoulder and as Gandalf turned to see a giant of a man, another tapped his other shoulder. "Gandalf!, Good to see you my friend" yelled Cougar with enthusiam. "Remember me Gandalf?" asked Bandit. "I do, I Do" said Gandalf. Yet a third man stood amoung them as the others greeted each other. Cougar then introduced him. "Where is my manners", Cougar said. "This Sir Misetich, a Knight of Old and he has news of which should delight you". Pulling chairs to sit about the small table, the three joined Gandalf. "Ale", cried out Bandit and tankards soon filled the table.
"What may I owe this coincidence?" asked Gandalf.
"The best ale in these parts" said Cougar. "The only ale in these parts" commented Bandit and they laughed.
Then Sir Misetich spoke to Gandalf. "I have much to tell you and I have traveled far for others who wait for my calling".
Gandalf removed his pipe, filled it and as he lit it said," The night is young".
Far away the drums beat. A new commander was to take command.
Slingshot-------------------<>
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 00:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 121987)
Miner-man/Ari
Ari describes correctly how I do feel about Gold...now. I evolved out of 40 years of (amateuristic) participation in the financial speculation > gambling (formerly called-percepted as, investment).

Yes, this whole world, including Euroland, always hypocritically liked dollar-printing >>> overprinting. Let the American dollar PULLLLLLLL ! Today, I see (subtle for the time being) evidence that this attitude of,... let the dollar pull,... is on the dramatic increase...but with one BIG difference ! Get ready (anticipate) for the day of reckoning !

There is that growing general sense of "un-moneying". 40 Years ago, money (fiat) represented (was concepted) something of value in our collective minds. A dollar was a dollar. Today, politicians and the general public, have all lost that notion of "value" , almost completely. This state of mind, lives now and the absolute majority isn't realising how lucky they are for not "realising" (having to realise) that "money" is value-less ! The money-managers earn a big bravo for having been organizing this evolution in such a perfect way.

Making money worthless and keeping it in use ! What a fantastic achievement !

This is the main reason WHY Euroland's ECB and BIS-ally have to proceed so terribly careful (and slow) ! Don't wake up a sleep-walker (confetti user) too abruptly.
Central bankers are stopping to "responsibilize" the politicians. The CBs know where we are heading (monetary change) and that it is inevitable. That leaves them with only asking some attention for the balls and not for the big game. Muddle on with exchange rates, IRs, helicopters, etc...w're heading for a big change, anyway. A laissez aller that is reflected in the increasing decline of political ir-responsibility. Goes hand in hand with the general infantilization of the global public. Keep them busy (going) whilst we organise the "transition" and its "timing".

As an investor, speculator, financial active...I haven't changed that much. It is the Big games that have changed, dramatically. It is changing faster and faster.

Wise and responsible people do know, when the time has come to leave the confetti party as they see that more and more guests are getting drunk and the feast will end in chaos.
They are going home...retreat in their golden house and wait with a peaceful mind.

Wise and responsible people have a "low profile" in common and are not nesccesary the most wealthy (rich) and famous (infamous) ones. They are not part of the hero-culture.
The wise and responsible don't have to go out of debt...they never went into (irresponsible) debts. I'm talking about a silent minority with a minimum of "demands".

The whole Gold-Affair is about "responsibility" versus debauching irresponsibility. A cyclic process, indeed.

We certainly are "having" it right...let's hope we "get" it right as to enjoy the results of our individual responsibilty, ourselves, together with those that we love!

Thank you Sirs ! Regards, B.
Great Albino Bat
(06/10/2004; 02:01:07 MDT - Msg ID: 121988)
Belgian, I salute you!

Great post! Great mind! May the coming events fully justify your vision of the future.

The GAB
Mr Gresham
(06/10/2004; 02:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 121989)
miner49er
You should know that even your brief appearance can cheer me on a cloudy day. Memories of many good discussions and blazing thoughts that passed through your keyboard to us.

Who knows where this will all go? But to have been in such good company...well, that makes it worth the trip -- no -- adventure.
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 02:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 121990)
Misetich/Druid....
Many keep on over-analysing what is taking place ! The one and only problem that all these "analysts" are having in common is...THEY DO NOT SEE GOLD ...don't want-dare to see Gold !!!

What is the use of constantly sounding the alarm about the many different "price-rises" without making the link to the cause of these price-rises...PERMANENT CONFETTI DEPRECIATION !!!

The best that Larouche (or others) could come up with,...was suggesting a repeat of the old, unworkable goldstandard !?

All keep feeling comfortable with the "principle" of cyclic rounds of this permanent confetti depreciation and the many (permanent) price rises. All remain confident that the consecutive rounds of depreciation/inflation will keep altering in speed and magnitude, during the permanancy.
The famous believe in infla followed by defla followed by infla, again...on and on and on...

All remain optimistically confident that the global confetti system, based on the dollar, will, shall, must go on for ever and beyond ! What purpose do these monotonous multitudes of analysis serve !? A: Keep the old $-confetti-system and its many derivatives, in USE.

But there is a group out there that wishes to "conserve" the wealth they possess or have been accumulating...and those people are the diametrical opposite of those that live (and die) with everlasting, ever growing DEBT ! It is here that the shism will take place !!!

Depreciation and prices will go *HYPER* ! Because the existing WEALTH wants to conserve-preserve its real VALUE !
For the time being, an elitist happening...but that will evolve towards the general public, proportionally with the degree of developping "hyper".

Yes, I suspect that we might have Another round of $-� reconciliation around the temptative "pulling"-effects of dollar-expansion. Let's call this the global dollar-engine.
Let's have one more joy-riding...free...gratis...with the green paper car. Get that nasty �-$ exchange rate back to parity and enjoy the coming ride ! What a dream !
I'm NOT betting on this possible scenario, but as always don't want to exclude any possibility.

Once we agree on the above general idea, there is not much left to analyse. Do we keep...support...use, the dollar system for Another round...or two or tree...WHO KNOWS !?

I concluded that going on betting on these rounds has become extremely risky and I decided to conserve-protect-consolidate my modest savings in a 5,000 years old reliable tangible. I never lost my great sense for (financial) adventure...but doubts are growing too fast and too big.

Let me thank you both for keeping us updated, on a daily basis.

Topaz
(06/10/2004; 03:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 121991)
"Oil on troubled Waters"
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=CL1%21&s=GC1%21&s=TYXY&s=DX1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThe big hurdle with Gold as I see it is that most is either under the control of CB's or locked up in "Bank Vaults" ostensibly to protect it FOR you ... but in reality to protect it FROM you.
Then you have the fact that unmined Gold is either sold forward or encumbered as National resources.
You're correct Belgian in identifying a "political" White Knight solution for Gold, as without same this Gold "charade" could last indefinitely.
...meanwhile T-Yields look real ornery and we could expect a pounding soon.
No "classical" inflation here imo.
Knallgold
(06/10/2004; 04:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 121992)
France
Interesting statement here: "..Noyer said the central bank will wait until gold prices are "appropriate"

and goes on to give a timeframe:"decision will be made either by the end of this year or the beginning of 2005.".

So within 6 months prices could grow to "appropriate",whatever that might be.I mean with 30billions you could pay only interest on the debt of France,with say 300 billions the stated "help (to) reduce its budget deficit." becomes more credible.

"Appropriate" for deficit reduction eliminates the usual CB habit of selling at the bottom (unless its more blabla by Noyer).

"PARIS (AFX) - Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said the central bank plans to sell part of its gold reserves to the market, possibly up to 500-600 tonnes.

The Bank of France holds about 3,000 tonnes of gold reserves, valued at around 30 bln eur. The French government is hoping to raise funds from gold sales to help reduce its budget deficit.

Noyer said the central bank will wait until gold prices are "appropriate" before agreeing the sale, adding that a decision will be made either by the end of this year or the beginning of 2005.

The bank will "certainly take into account the price... If we feel the timing is not appropriate, then we will wait," Noyer told journalists at a presentation of the Bank of France's annual report."
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 04:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 121993)
It is getting more and more clear (explicite), that....
...One of the major things that stand in the dollar's debauche way is...THE ECB and its monetary policies (project)!!!

The FED's dollar has only one goal left : Pull the ECB's euro into the same $-confetti helicopter !

I'll abstain from the (unimportant) description (comments) of the $-tactics that are being used to obtain that goal.

But the final outcome of this ongoing (fierce) battle is ooooohhhhhhhh so simple and obvious : The �-$-POG will, shall, EXPLODE !!! Explode unlimited as FreeGold or explode within limits as another intermediair POG cycle under the old $-goldpaper regime.

The dollar-euro battle, with GOLD in between, will almost certainly become a very grim one, in an increasing amount of facets, as time goes by.

The dollar will almost certainly push its luck in its "divide and conquer" tactics, up to, and beyond the limits !
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 05:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121994)
@KnallGold-All
The Noyer semi-statement, (a very little more Golden unveiling) is ANOTHER example of the ongoing (untransparant) Gold-Intriges.

GET *YOUR* GOLD IN *YOUR* HANDS, ASAP !!! NIA, but only the communication of what "natural reflexions" ought to be.
Glad you noticed Noyer (the intrige and the intrigants) !
Thought that many goldphiles/advocates, were fallen asleep.
They aren't !

Topaz : I wished that all would understand (conclude) what you just confirmed...a political white knight (make it knights-plural)!!! After all, this forum and our host is about the complete understanding of PHYSICAL GOLD and its probable future, isn't it !?
misetich
(06/10/2004; 06:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 121995)
Japanese Economic Recovery Could Be Catalyst For Run On The Dollar
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/daily/us/dd060904.pdfSnip:

Overnight it was reported that Japanese real GDP growth in the first quarter was revised up to 6.1% annualized growth from the first-reported 5.6% growth. In the past two quarters, Japanese real GDP has grown at an annualized pace of 6.73% -- the fastest two-quarter growth since 1990 (see Chart
......................
Now, it is doubtful that Japanese real GDP growth will
continue at its recent rapid rate, but what is not doubtful is that the Japanese economy has finally come out of its decade-long hibernation. What also is not doubtful is that Japanese deflation is waning.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has become one of the principal sponsors of the U.S. dollar.
....................
This, in combination with the improving health of Japanese banks, appears to have resulted in an acceleration in the Japanese money supply. As shown in Chart 2, the Japanese monetary aggregate, M2 + CDs, has grown at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the first five months of this year � the fastest five-month growth since early 2002. With both the Japanese economy and banking system improving, chances are Japanese money supply growth will grow even faster in the future.
................
If private global investors do not fall in love with the dollar again, then the dollar could take quite a tumble as the BOJ withdraws its support. A sharp depreciation in the dollar would lead to a spike in U.S. inflation and a spike, rather than a measured increase, in U.S. interest rates. Somehow, I do not believe the U.S. housing market would thrive under these conditions.
*********************
Misetich

Private investors are not as "foolish" as central bankers-as they do not possess fiat printing presses to bail them out of poor investment decisions - and thus the likelyhood of private investors pouring back in to the US $ is slim and none as going forward the US economy will deteriorate further, as will SM returns due to The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe, slowing consumer spending and reducing corporate earnings.....

The Orient has taken over as the global economic locomotive led by CHINA's appetite for commodities.

Currencies shall adjust to economic fundamentals and the Yen will appreciate vs the US $

Though the US economy is growing faster than EU, the Euro will further appreciate against the US $ going forward as the US economy is too dependent on foreigners fund inflows to mitigate the effects of the Troika Deficits - whilst EU persosal savings rate is 3 times more than the US

In addition the US economy will be affected more negatively by rising inflationary pressures than EU as the US $ continues depreciating

As the US $ depreciates ( expressed as higher price inflation- I'm learning slowly BELGIAN- thanks!) it will necessitate higher IR in the US which will further choke the fragile US economy and create havoc in the derivative market

The odds of this scenario - which France's Chirac alluded to yesterday in the G8 are RISING....

Prudent/conservative investors would be wise to consider ADDING Physical Gold to their portfolio, as RISKS are increasing

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Knallgold
(06/10/2004; 06:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 121996)
Noyer
This "appropriate" regarding using its Goldreserves also distances France from the stupidity of BOE and cohorts.Plus,if IR are going to rise now (how little it will be),it would be a good thing to reduce its debt considerable.I truly think the debts ARE on a pain level now,just watch how prominent the positions "interest" are, even in the euro zone.Unless,the debt will be defaultet.

If you can pay off'say a third or a half of your debt with 500t of your 3000t of Gold,would you not consider it,together with some debt devaluation through inflation?
Knallgold
(06/10/2004; 07:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 121997)
WA2
We still don't know the details of the "WA2".A possibility:
WA1 was for the "Washingtoners",unwinding of Gold carry trades etc,whereas the 2. Agreement is for the Europeans (FreeGold,debt reduction etc).For each side an equal big piece of meat?

Hey,where is everybody?
968
(06/10/2004; 08:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121998)
@Knallgold
Morning Knallgold,
I don't think you should see the WA in 2 different pieces, but in a global transition where the WA1 was adapted to the events at that period.
I doubt the debt reduction story in Europe. The key words I hear from European leaders (Schr�der, Chirac, Verhofstadt,...) is "MORE JOBS". This morning French Finance Secretary Sarkozy attacked the ECB (Trichet) this morning that their primary goal should not be price stabilization, but economic growth. How are they going to do that ? By selling the gold and reducing the debt ???? No way.
misetich
(06/10/2004; 08:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 121999)
Import Prices Surge, Jobless Claims Rise
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=N2MHSGOPA0X5UCRBAEZSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=5393199Snip:

Import prices climbed 1.6 percent, notching the biggest one-month rise since February of last year and the eighth consecutive monthly advance, after a revised 0.2 percent gain in April, the Labor Department said.

The rise was double the 0.8 percent advance Wall Street analysts had anticipated and signals an increase in inflation in the U.S. economy. Higher price pressures have fueled expectations policy-makers will move sooner rather than later to raise interest rates.
....................
Over the past 12 months, the price index for petroleum imports was up 43.9 percent, while overall import prices rose a more modest 7.0 percent.

Imported food costs fell 0.3 percent after climbing 1.2 percent the previous month. Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum, rose 2.1 percent, with prices for iron and steel, natural gas and lumber all contributing to the gain.
........................
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to 352,000 the week ended June 5.
****************
Misetich

The "goldilock" economy of the late 90's is OVER. During the late 90's the US economy benefitted from deflationary forces in oil, and imports from devasted SE Asia regions, and previous currency devaluation in China (1994) curtailing growing price inflation in the service industry.

The US $ devaluation is reinforcing the trend of higher imported prices.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/10/2004; 08:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122000)
Reality Check: US Cement Execs Report Shortages, Price Rises>
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK, June 9 (MktNews) - A cement shortage is spreading
throughout the nation, as stronger than expected demand caught importers flatfooted while economic expansion in Asia diverted product away from U.S. markets, industry officials say.

A severe problem first became apparent in early April but was limited to parts of Florida -- since then it has spread to about 23 states to varying degrees.
......................
High demand and spot shortages have led to price increases, with one increase of around 5% to 7% already instituted and another hike for the same amount in the works for summer
......................
It didn't help matters that freight rates "just about doubled from last year."
...................
He argues the problem is still at an early stage and is bound to worsen as the industrial and commercial sectors rebound amid residential construction that shows little sign of slowing. Supplies would be further strained as state coffers begin to fill and government begins to
repair roads and bridges - and a multi-billion-dollar federal highway bill is deployed.
.........................
"It developed in Florida and Southern California. It has spread to southern New England and New York, straight down the seacoast, then west to the Mississippi. There are spot shortages in Nevada, the Dakotas, Nebraska and Iowa," he said. "There are 23 states right now in shortage
conditions - and probably it will get worse before it gets better. It will spread."
.....................
He can't find the ships to bring in cement and, consequently, all his customers are on allocation
.....................
He blames China for diverting cargo ships that were dedicated to cement imports, and using them for other purposes and other commodities
***************
Misetich

The "cement story" is emblematic of various industries affected by the "CHINA growth syndrome" and its avoricious appetite for raw materials consumption

Most of the economic growth ballyhood in the media in the US stems from the energy industry, industrials and materials industries -

Input prices in those three major industries have/are soaring upwards - though hirings have picked up in these industries -its negligible as a whole

The effects of these higher raw materials prices, along with surging energy ARE STILL BUILDING IN THE ECONOMIC PIPELINE rather than abating

The early casualties have been in the transportation area - mainly airlines, trucking

During a presidential election year, it is typical for goverment spending to accelerate and create/stimulate business activity thus the "relative" economic uptick

The collateral damage is in goverment budgets - as higher input prices are skyrocketing road repairs, etc. costs - thus HIGHER BUDGET DEFICITS

Other collateral damage is on consumer spending....its a matter of when not IF, as job creation is virtually non-existent

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 08:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122001)
@KnallGold
The possibility of zero debt in Euroland has already been on the talking table, some time ago. But for some "dark" reasons, zero debt was found inappropiate !? Hey, wait a minute, papillon...how could the possibility of zero debt even come into question in the first place and WHY is it inappropiate to have debt reduced to zero... !?

All EMU members, still have some National Goldreserves after having transferred some of it the ECB...
Imagine euro-FreeGold and all euro goldreserves + committments go sky high...
Goldreserves freely priced against the outstanding debt that is internally serviced with euro confetti in parallel with appreciating FreeGold-reserves.

In other words...

Euroland unhooking from the classic dollar-papergold-market en going for a euro-physical only-goldmarket !!! Oh boy, would the French love that to happen. Une journ�e de gloire...

Noyer was in fact reacting (answering-?) to the cryptic Greenspeak in London.
Indeed KnallGold, higher IRs do limit the budgets, again !
And given the detoriating state of the economy and an ECB that is guarding its currency, firmly...Euroland cannot afford (renewed) much higher IRs on the debtbergs.

Selling one's goldreserves to reduce one's debt is complete nonsense. Debt-reduction is an open invitation to restart making new debts, whilst your Goldreserve has gone ! Pure idiocy. Euro FreeGold...a free physical goldmarket...goldreserves as a wealth asset...
A goldprice that is allowed to say how good or bad the paperization (debt and confetti) is running...

That's the very reason WHY the ECB must be torpedoed by the dollar-addicts and anti Gold establishments. Today I heard the dim Wim outcry again on CNBC. Cost what it may cost, but all the weaknessess of Euroland and EMU must permanently be exposed and magnified ad infinitum. EMU must be undermined because of the possibility of euro FreeGold.

Thy shall remain on the dollar-reserve system or be doomed !

Yes, Euroland is still divided on many aspects of the unification process. That's why everything goes so terribly slow . I do wellcome regular crisisses as to speed up the decission making. Most probably we are heading towards another one of these crissises in the not so distant future...IRs...exchange rates...price rises...unemployment...und so weiter !
968
(06/10/2004; 08:45:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122002)
Gold
Since I follow the magnificent USA-Gold Forum for not so long. Is here anyone who follows Robert Prechters essays about gold. He points out gold will go to 200,00 US$ before exploding because gold rises according to him in a deflationary environment ????? Any people here who use Elliotwaves to study gold's behaviour ? Any thoughts on Prechters essays ?

@Belgian : Why don't the European CB's want to hold the gold in their vault as a counterbalance for the depreciating dollar ? Isn't it strange the ECB only has 766 tons in their possession ?

@All : Does anyone know how much gold is held by the BIS ?
968
(06/10/2004; 08:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122003)
@ Belgian
Hello Belgian, Thank you for being so quickly !!!! You've answered my question while I was posting !!!!!
Knallgold
(06/10/2004; 09:13:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122004)
@968
Hmm,we have been teached by FOA that the front of this battle is not bound to nations but cuts through all institutions...you might be right that debt reduction is not realistic,BUT

ECB's job is stable prices,politicians job is to allow an environment leading to prosperity.You just can't BUY jobs and growth.So ECB officials simply have to resist the politicians whining if the euro has to have some mileage down the road!This whining is simply their own failure-not exactly a position to tell others what to do...

Debt reduction would be part of a longterm strategy to healthy prosperity.Spending would lead to Another straw fire.

Switzerland,though, just has proposed using the proceeds of the Gold sale for the cantons budget and another part for the AHV (social security).

We'll see how this plays out.



Knallgold
(06/10/2004; 09:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122005)
@Belgian
Just saw your latest post,okay,Gold never to be connected again with money (and being it debt).Its not easy for me-I'm working on a post about it but could not find the right words yet.Your early morning post #121987 prompted my thinking...
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 10:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122006)
@968
W're in an election week. Mucho politico paroles...paroles !
Euroland needs some structural reforms (old soar) ... but these reforms must fit into the Euroland specific idendity, wich differs on multiple facets from the dollar logic !
Is one of the main reasons that the concept of FreeGold is a European one !!!

In the global politico-debt-driven economy, jobs are a matter of confetti expansion ! That's where the main difference between euro and dollar policy is situated !!!
And now you have those who wish to create jobs � l'americaine (politico's) and those who say (ECB) it must be done � l'europ�ene.

And then comes the debate about an ever globalizing planet...jobs (job-creation) and confetti helicopters, be it $ or �...the FED or ECB...responsible/irresponsible politicos.

It will take some more time before most of the politicos realize that "real" jobs cannot be "created" � la carte ! But that's another debate. For the time being, we associate job-expansion with confetti expansion in a more and more direct way. 5 dollars of debt to add 1 dollar to the GDP !!!

I don't mind the ever growing debt-bergs on condition that my Gold-wealth (Value) can, and is allowed, to float freely in price and keep pace with the confetti depreciation. Sooooohoho simple !
Arcticfox
(06/10/2004; 11:10:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122007)
Is the draft coming back?
"Universal National Service Act of 2003 �

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snip..

Unless I'm crazy, there hasn't been much in the news with regard to the twin bills in front of Congress. The bills are identified as "S.89" and "H.R.163." I went to www.congress.gov and found the following summary of the two bills:

"Universal National Service Act of 2003 � Declares that it is the obligation of every U.S. citizen, and every other person residing in the United States, between the ages of 18 an 26 to perform a two-year period of national service, unless exempted, either as a member of an active or reserve component of the armed forces or in a civilian capacity that promotes national defense. Requires induction into national service by the President. Sets forth provisions governing: 1) induction deferments, postponements, and exemptions, including exemption of a conscientious objector from military service that includes combatant training; and 2) discharge following national service." It also says the bill, "Amends the Military Selective Service Act to authorize the military registration of females."

I suspect we aren't hearing much about this because it probably won't win many votes in November, but could be implemented as soon as summer next year. Did you ever think your daughter would be facing the draft? This could well be a solution to the ongoing job creation problems we are facing. The complete details of the Universal National Service Act are available on the website shown above. I sure hope this doesn't happen, but is a distinct possibility for next year. Something to think about�

Hope you have a good evening,

Mike Hartman
Great Albino Bat
(06/10/2004; 11:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122008)
A historical-philosophical interjection is offered...

May I interject some comments on our historical and philosophical location in the present times...in order to elevate our thoughts to a level from which we can contemplate day to day events which can seem chaotic.

First we must take into account that back in the 18th century, westerners discovered that energy from the earth could be used to supplant human and animal labor. Coal began to mined, so that steam engines could pump water from mines, and thus make possible further mining, until then uneconomical or impossible due to the invasion of mines by water. The age of industry was born, from coal.

Later on - shall we say, late 19th century? - the world's industrial and military potentates finally understood that coal, as a source of energy, was much less useful than oil.

The oil age began, in which we live. The oil wars began, as it was understood that control of the sources of oil around the world, was control of corresponding power - military and financial. And denial was the option to be offered to those countries that did not have the control, thus ensuring domination.

A consequence of the world's rape of oil supplies - we are only now suspecting that this rape might have to come to an end sometime not too far away - was the introduction of great and unsustainable disequilibrium, not only into patterns of human production and consumption, but into whole thought processes of mankind regarding his place in this world.

Mankind has come to believe there are no LIMITS. This is a consequence of the rape and wholesale waste of mineral oil, as if it had no limits. Oil has put so much power into human hands in so many ways, that the world in general has forgotten that there are limits, and that nature tends always to equilibium. Today, our world is totally out of equilibrium in many different ways - all stemming, at root, from cheap and supposedly endless and increasing supplies of oil to move Nature for us.

Our "politicans" - little mental midgets performing for the t.v. cameras - spout words about grandiose plans for humanity. They feel allpowerful. They are deluded by the abundance and cheapness of oil.

ONE of the consequences of the oil orgy of the past 150 years or so, has been the discarding of gold and silver as money. Why? Because gold and silver are limited in availability, and our politicians and "economists" are drunk on the idea that their power is actually unlimited. They cannot conceive of limits. Gold and silver hindered the grandiose plans of the politicians and their whoremasters, the "economists." Gold HAD to be discarded. Paper was the alternative that allowed these dreams of madmen to be imposed on a suffering humanity. That goes on today.

"Onward, and upward, we can do anything. We can reach the stars, we can go to the moon, to Mars, to the ends of the Universe, we are all powerful, mankind has no limits."

(I just saw a quote where Ronnie Reagan said just this, in his words of course, speaking of "growth")

This is all utter madness, the ravings of unbalanced minds. Such is our world, after 150 years of intoxication with unlimited use of oil to move Nature for us.

Limits exist. Oil is a finite quantity. Equilibrium shall be restored. The drunkeness will pass. The hangover will be painful. Reality will prevail.

The cycle will be fulfilled. "You shall earn your bread by the sweat of your brow."

Get some gold against that time.

The GAB

mikal
(06/10/2004; 11:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122009)
Low water mark of market tides
Re: Low volume
As for equities, bonds and currencies,
and certain commodities, perhaps even lower volume is inevitable, especially as summer approaches.
Volume and conditions are spreading themselves too thin. Thin enough
that supportive money out of thin air,
working itself
to the verge of exhaustion, may also be
shown to be spread too thin despite being ubiquitous.
Even as market volumes may soon
strain or exceed capacity as storm warnings are heard.
Gonlyold
(06/10/2004; 11:53:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122010)
Security Reasons?
I tried to access the URL posted by Misetech (#122000) concerning cement production. The site first asks "For security reasons blah blah, you must login in. Security reasons? Just to read an article? You got to be kidding. I'm getting tired of having to give my name address, phone number & e-mail address to read articles. Seems like they want to know who is reading what. Since knowledge is power, I guess their game plan is to keep me powerless unless I join them. I suppose this is a little paranoid, but the heck with them. They can keep their information. I'll find out about cement another way.
Belgian
(06/10/2004; 11:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122011)
KnallGold/968
The little duce, Sylvio, even suggests that there should be a controling political comitee installed, within the ECB ! Sylvio, the dollar amoroso, has been hired...and recently got a nice present from an important visitor from accross the atlantic.
How vulnarable is the ECB's autonomy !? A: That's what the ongoing intriges are all about. We can only watch and try to understand something of it.

968 : Prechter and $200 POG : I've learned what the limits of EW-theory are. Forget about the $200/Oz.
The interaction between ECB Gold and the Gold in the respective National Banks is rather a mystery of Gold commitments, through the BIS. I'm not a fish "in" that bowl.
And that bowl will remain untransparant (with very few fish in it) for obvious reasons wich the dollar hates as has been confirmed today at CNBC by the hired ECB basher who wishes to have the votings publicized. Comprendo amigo ?


Gonlyold
(06/10/2004; 11:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122012)
spelling
That should be Misetich not Misetech. Sorry.
Caradoc
(06/10/2004; 12:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122013)
Draft to be reinstituted?
Arcticfox: You won't hear much about the draft until after the election. When it does come (late 2004 or early 2005?), it won't be the traditional draft of "cannon fodder" we've seen in the past. After all, even with today's needs, the US Army is rejecting a high percentage of those applying to be part of the "100% volunteer force." Today's soldiers -- even at the lowest levels -- need to be smart enough to operate a handheld GPS receiver, and America's high schools are putting out graduates who can't even read a traditional map. (Or read at all in many cases.)

Even though all 18-year-olds will no doubt be required to register with selective service, we can expect the process to be more selective than ever before so that those actually drafted will be those with "critical skills."

My hunch is that the main reason we didn't pursue Saddam's WMDs into Syria during the months after taking Baghdad was that US forces didn't have enough medical personnel to take care of those already being wounded. So who gets drafted? Doctors. And young doctors at that.

Market implications... The typical MD in late 20s or early 30s is probably still making payments on student loans (perceived as better to refinance than pay off), but the biggest payment is for the prized gated community McMansion. That house has seemed like a great investment over the last few years, with paper profit of however many $100,000s left over after having tapped the equity a couple of times to pay for luxury items. As soon he/she hears the rumor of doctors being drafted, it'll be time to put up the "for sale" sign, hoping to capture the paper profits of the overinflated real estate. And it takes exactly two "for sale" signs in any neighborhood to turn a tight real estate market into a downward spiralling buyers' market.

So, the real estate bubble bursts from the top down even if interest rates haven't gone up a significant amount. And the perceived value of derivitive assets based on the underlying mortgages (which are nothing more than a promise to make payments) drops to match the fear that maybe those payments won't be made.

At which point, the Joe Sixpacks of America start to suspect that maybe they should be invested in assets that don't rely on somebody's promise to make payments.

Caradoc


Federal_Reserves
(06/10/2004; 13:08:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122014)
Military Pay/Draft
http://usmilitary.about.com/library/milinfo/pay/bl2004percentenlbasepay.htmTargeting some good increases in 2004.

E-1 $1100/month up to E-9 top grade $5000

Combat pay gets you more.

misetich
(06/10/2004; 13:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122015)
Bush, Blocked by France, Gains No Ground on Iraq Debt
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aic9ICeGBOqI&refer=top_world_newsSnip:

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush's personal appeals failed to win agreement from Group of Eight nations to reduce Iraq's $120 billion of debt and to send more G- 8 troops to stabilize the country.

French President Jacques Chirac disagreed about how much debt to cut and sought to limit relief to 50 percent because of Iraq's revenue from oil reserves, the world's second-largest. The stalemate leaves the Paris Club of creditor nations, whose members include both the U.S. and France, to find a compromise.

Divisions between the U.S. and France, which opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, also surfaced when Chirac rejected Bush's suggestion that NATO expand its role in Iraq. France and Germany have refused to send troops to Iraq to support the 150,000 that Britain, the U.S. and Italy have there.
......................
France doesn't want to write down more than half of Iraq's debt because the nation's oil reserves make it better able to pay than some other nations seeking debt relief, Catherine Colonna, a spokeswoman for Chirac, said Tuesday.

``Iraq is a country which has resources,'' Colonna said. ``There are very strong points leading us to believe that treating 50 percent of Iraq's debt would be appropriate.''
****************
Misetich

The two superpowers, agreed to disagree - in more ways than one.
The US is still stuck to fund most of the Iraq invasion/occupation - though apparently not much has been spend of the alloted funds toward the "reconstruction"

The disagreements are larger than debt and Nato - The main issue is the Middle East - and EU is gaining friends, amongst Gulf States for their perceived impartiality, paving for an eventual pricing of oil in Euros

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Steve22
(06/10/2004; 13:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122016)
the real value of gold
People tend to discuss how high the price of gold is going to go in terms of dollars. That makes some sense today but I think it's a roundabout way of looking at "the problem" that might confuse newbies. It might seem more confusing AT FIRST to say, in plain terms, 1 oz. gold will go to 100 barrels of oil. But, in reality this is what we are saying. Just a thought.
Dollar Bill
(06/10/2004; 16:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122017)
.,.
I wonder how chirac and whomever came to the 50% figure. Maybe if you add up all the oil for food money that went astray to france germany and russia and bribe money that went to chiracs political freind?
Liberty Head
(06/10/2004; 20:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122018)
Caradoc - Re: Draft, Real Estate and Gold

In one way, the draft is already with us, at the back end. (Pun intended)
People who are already in the service are not being allowed to leave. This is the same as a draft, except the draftees are already trained and experienced.
Draft at the front end is a virtual certainty once the elections are over. A long period of great unrest lies ahead of us.

As for the real estate bubble, there will always be a housing market. The demand however will shift dramatically to the lower end of the market. As interest rates climb and the dollar falls, more folks will need to downsize their debt load to survive.
The bottom end of the market will continue to rise in price more dramatically.
This squeeze effect causes more properties to be used by multiple families.
As gasoline prices rise, we will see the same squeeze effect in the auto market as well.

I think it's pretty clear to most of us why Black Blades advice to stay out of debt, own precious metals and be more self-reliant is so wise.

Best Wishes


Sundeck
(06/10/2004; 22:55:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122019)
The dollar dilemma
http://afr.com/articles/2004/06/10/1086749836166.htmlSnips:

"...
For all the mystical appeal of the dollar bill, it is not a piece of gold. Since the end of gold convertibility, a dollar has been little more than a flimsy piece of printed paper that costs around US3� to manufacture. The design with which we are familiar dates back to 1957. Since then, as a result of inflation, it has lost 84 per cent of its purchasing power. Tell the Japanese that they are the lucky members of a "dollar standard" 4 - and they will laugh. In 1971 a dollar was worth more than 350 yen; today it hovers around 100.
...
Before 1999, around 30 per cent of total international bonds were issued in the euro's predecessor currencies, compared with more than 50 per cent in dollars. In the past five years, the euro has accounted for 47 per cent to the dollar's 44 per cent.
...
The term structure of the federal debt is amazingly short: 35 per cent of it has a maturity of less than one year, meaning that higher rates would feed through almost instantly into debt service costs (and into the deficit). Meanwhile, even as rates have been nudging upwards, the proportion of new US mortgages that are adjustable-rate rather than fixed has risen from about 12 per cent in late 2002 to 32 per cent.
..."

Sundeck: A useful, compact read of the dollar's dilemma by Niall Ferguson at NY University. Many good points...most or all of which have been emphasised in this forum over time. Has anyone read his book: "Colossus: The price of America's empire"?

:-)
The Invisible Hand
(06/10/2004; 23:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122020)
three tragedies of the commons
It's still a mystery for me how a member bank of the ECB can sell its reserves without the ECB's approval. Is that a new tragedy of the commons in the second degree? The tragedy in the first degree being that the gold is held by government in the first place.

The Bank of France is saying that it wants to use the proceeds to reduce its deficits.

In a recent book "Putting Humans First � Why we are nature's favorite" (Rowman and Littlefield, 2004), Dr Tibor R. Machan argues as follows:
"Thinkers of all stripes tend to understand the problem with unlimited usage of land or water held "in common". What has not been as widely understood is that a tragedy of the commons exits as well in our national treasury. Recognizing the applicability of the analysis to public finance will help us understand the universal applicability of some features of economic analysis. That might incline us to look on the tragedy of the commons as more significant than has been hitherto thought for purposes of gleaning some insights about the nature of justice itself.
...
In the public treasury, we have what by law amounts to a common pool of resources from which members may try to extract as much as will serve their purposes, with little thought to the aggregate negative economic consequences. These include red ink, high taxes, or loss of productive nationwide � consequences that any particular group's pelf grabbing can only minutely affect."

FWIW
Belgian
(06/11/2004; 04:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122021)
Hoi TIH, long time no hear....
The "goldprice" and its "behavior" is the most universal instrument that backs the dollar-system's "CREDIBILITY" !

One cannot keep a ($)system in "use" where all do clearly see, black on white evidence, that it is not credible anymore.

If tomorrow the POG explodes...we admit that the global $-system is in default ! Therefore whe have to continue the lie, ad nauseum, in order to keep things going.

Optimists simply reverse the reasoning and say that the dollar-system is OK, because Gold says so !

When CBs (pretend to) sell goldreserves...they are confirming their trust in the dollar-reserve-system ! Is this a genuine belief or a blatant deceiving lie...? That's up to you to decide.

What is (how big is) the difference between a goldsale and a gold-commitment ? What about the "art" of creative lieing...deceiving...misleading !?

An absolute majority isn't making the connection between fiat and Gold anymore...on the sole condition the the goldprice-behavior is NOT waking up the sleeping complacent confetti dogs !!! WHY do you think that CBs produce such idiotic (inconsistant) statements about Gold, now... after 20 years of almost absolute Gold silence !? Were you expecting the truth and nothing but the truth. As a loyer, you should know better (das toch waar he manneke).

I can't guess what Noyer's intriging statement has for a purpose. Is it a threath...a warning...or a signal...?
Do you know...or have one single example of any central banker on this planet, that said the truth and nothing but the truth about the cb's goldreserves !?

Central bankers are like the stone of Rosetta or...the Mona Lisa ! Give us such a smile,...will you !?
misetich
(06/11/2004; 05:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122022)
Citigroup's Rubin warns of budget deficit "morass"
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5398267Snip:

NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters) - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin on Thursday warned that spiraling budget deficits have created a "fiscal morass" that might threaten the U.S. economy's longer-term health as baby boomers approach retirement. Rubin, now part of Citigroup Inc.'s (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) office of the chairman, said the budget has swung from a projected 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion in 2001 to a projected 10-year deficit that might reach $5.5 trillion. After methodology changes, he said that amounts to a $9 trillion swing, with 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expected to cost $4 trillion over the next 10 years.

"The deficits of the magnitude we're now talking about would have a substantial adverse impact on interest rates, productivity and our economy," he said in a speech.

"The fiscal morass that we have today is a more serious problem than the unsound fiscal conditions of the 1980s," he added. This is in part because of higher deficits, lower personal savings, high consumer debt, and as Americans age, he said.

At some point, Rubin said, markets might fear that deficits will cause "fiscal disarray" or that the government won't show fiscal discipline, leading to "sharply higher" interest rates.
......................
Though U.S. policies are criticized in many parts of the world, Rubin said "the global community will almost certainly not move on major (economic) issues" without U.S. leadership.

Still, he said the United States cannot provide that leadership "unless it works in true cooperative partnership" with other countries. Europe and Japan, he said, are not strong enough "to provide independent energy to the global economy."

Meanwhile, he said investors focus too much on short-term events such as quarterly corporate earnings, and too little on unquantifiable risk. He said this includes such geopolitical risks as political situations in Iraq, North Korea and Pakistan, terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

"We are far, far from having knowledge of the uncertainty and the complexity of these issues," he said.

Other worrisome issues, he said, include rising health care costs and oil prices, the environment and global poverty.
............................
Rubin said he has put some of his own money in "long-short" investments that involve buying some securities and selling others, some in private equity, some in "plain old equities," and "enough ... in some place that is really safe.
*****************
Misetich

A brief summary of Rubin's worries:

Unsustainable Budget deficts - leading to a Higher IR's ( to support the US $!)
Low US personal savings rate
High consumer debt
Higher expected entitlement payouts
"unless it works in true cooperative partnership" (US)
rising health care costs and oil prices
Such geopolitical risks as political situations in Iraq, North Korea and Pakistan, terrorism and nuclear proliferation

RUBIN'S PERSONAL INVESTMENTS

" enough.....in some place that is really safe."

What could that be? US Treasury bills? Swissie? Gold?

If one would take Rubin to his words and statements above, he's VERY NEGATIVE US $ thus it appears that Mr. Rubin has either chosen the Swissie or GOLD for his "safe" personal investment

Rubin, is no HERO, he's just passing the buck. He was the architect of the strong US $ policy which led/inspired/created the SM, derivatives bubbles that have culminated in today's chaotic financial environment. One of the two Rubin's created bubbles, the Stock Market has been has burst ...the second is the still growing derivatives bubble

Rubin's ultimate fear - DERIVATIVES BUBBLE BURST - and collapse of the US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Dollar Bill
(06/11/2004; 05:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122023)
.,.
Gab, we have to just know that there are many people that lie. A lot. Those trying to influence the world view of others, especially leftists, lie a lot. this qoute, "Onward, and upward, we can do anything. We can reach the stars, we can go to the moon, to Mars, to the ends of the Universe, we are all powerful, mankind has no limits." supposeidly from ron reagan, is a lie. There is no chance of him saying "we are all powerful".
Dollar Bill
(06/11/2004; 05:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 122024)
.,.
Thanks rubin, this is clear as mud. "Still, he said the United States cannot provide that leadership "unless it works in true cooperative partnership" with other countries. Europe and Japan, he said, are not strong enough "to provide independent energy to the global economy."
Remarx
(06/11/2004; 05:32:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122025)
Re: Lies
Admittedly, there are a great number of lies and misquotes out on the Internet, but it is certainly not "especially leftists". Don't forget that the most bold, outright lying is being committed by the likes of Alan Greenspan, George Bush, John Ashcroft, Donald Rumsfeld -- an even Colin Powell before the UN. The right, for now at least, seems to have a monopoly on official lies at least.
misetich
(06/11/2004; 05:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122026)
INTERIM REPORT: Government Running $344 Billion Deficit
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=542&ncid=542&e=5&u=/ap/20040610/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/federal_deficit_1Snip:

WASHINGTON - The government ran a deficit of $344.3 billion in the first eight months of the 2004 budget year, according to the latest snapshot of the nation's balance sheets
......................
On the revenue side, individual income tax payments came to nearly $502 billion for the first eight months of the 2004 budget year, 3.1 percent less than the corresponding period a year ago. Corporate income tax payments totaled $96 billion so far this year, a 46.6 percent increase.
*****************
Misetich

The US Budget Deficit is "on target" toward the $450-500 billion mark for the year.

As IR are increased it raised the debt service costs, on the ballooning public debt

...speaking of which

The Debt To the Penny

06/09/2004 $7,214,624,032,891.61

12/31/2003 $7,001,312,247,818.28
09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62
09/30/2002 $6,228,235,965,597.16
09/28/2001 $5,807,463,412,200.06
09/29/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86

...IS CONTINUALLY SOARING UPWARD...and you ain't seen nothing yet....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Cometose
(06/11/2004; 06:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122027)
Strange weather
It froze overnight in Carbondale the frozen puddle remains to a shower last night covers a small surface of the innoperable hot tub on the deck . I checked with a friend in Northern NM and he is at 7000 and he confirmed that it froze there as well and that his cat wouldn't go outside this morning......

This seems peculiar to me ..........I hope it's just an anomaly.

mikal
(06/11/2004; 06:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122028)
@Remarx
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tacinv061104.html Re: Greenspan
He may be lying at times, but at other times he
demonstrates remarkable discernment of
our money system, past and present, such as with recent warnings about risks and unknowns. Read what he has to say about fiat and oxen just over a year ago at a numismatic exhibition in Washington.
The link is to a related series of new essays
from multiple authors brilliantly examining fiat and gold. You will find Greenspan's quotes near the bottom of the page titled: FUN WITH FIAT.
MK
(06/11/2004; 08:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122029)
The Heavens
http://www.CrawfordPerspectives.comRunning on a tight schedule this morning, but I thought I'd take a few moments to talk about the call I got from Arch Crawford yesterday. It's always good to hear from Arch who is one of the more interesting people I've met in connection with the gold business. Crawford Perspectives, his newsletter, is mentioned from time to time here. Some of you may be aware of Arch's approach to the market -- a combination of astrological and technical projections that has won him numerous awards and a first ranking for market timing year after after.

Arch says that June 12 (and/or three days either side of that date) is the turning point for gold. He says it's going much higher. When I asked how high, he said the upside in gold will correspond with the downside in the dollar. On the dollar he says in his June issue:

"These planetary contacts (Ed. Note: alluded to earlier in the letter) could lead to foreign attacks against the U. S. Dollar, which we sold short in the May CP letter. Last Thursday, the US Dollar Index (page 4 chart) broke sharply below a rising "pennant� trendline and its 200-Day Moving Average. We expect a precipitous decline through most of June, which will likely assist a recovery in a variety of commodities and other currencies."

In one section of Crawford Perspectives he makes predictions by the date. For June 12, he says that "Saturn passes over the United States birth SUN = Lowest point in world opinion. . ." That was written several weeks ago, then we had Sea Island and the further unravelling of the Western alliance (another subject we discussed in detail). If you've read your Financial Times the past two days, you will know what I'm talking about.

After the phone conversation, Arch sent me a private note by e-mail. He believes that the secular bull market in gold is going to last for nine more years, with the period around June 12th particularly important as a transition time for the short term. There will be a steady flow of capital during the period from 'financials' to 'tangibles', he says. By the way, he tells his readerss that "We NO LONGER recommend Stocks!

He ends the note with this view of the near term:

"There has been little or no long term technical damage to charts, merely a pullback to long term trendlines!

The NEXT LEG should be a 'doozy'!

Hope it's not the end of Western Civilization...

All best wishes,

Arch"

Indeed, one hopes its not the end of Western Civilization, but we could be witnessing the birthing process for a whole new relationship among nations and their currencies.

By the way, premiums on pre-1933 gold coins are starting to move up. We got word yesterday that British sovereign premiums are beginning to rise. Rising premiums on pre-1933 gold coins is something we've predicted for some time believing that the current gold price is much too low to accomodate the demand. Rising premiums compensate for inadequate movement in the paper price...........

My best to all.

MK

P.S. If you'd like to learn more about Arch Crawford's newsletter try the url below. It's out of the ordinary but singularly interesting and a step back from the dry economics common to many others in the newsletter field.

Example:

On Venus' recent sun transit:

"The Hopi have a family whose job it is to have someone run the
ridge at sunrise, and if this black dot is there, to immediately inform
the elders. We do not possess any further detail on this, but it is not
supposed to be good news. There are some interesting stories about
the previous historical events online."
Great Albino Bat
(06/11/2004; 09:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122030)
I was bound to be misunderstood...
Dollar Bill, I never said that Ron Reagan uttered the words I wrote. I said he talked about "growth" as if there were no limits. The disregard for limits is my point.

Sorry I was not absolutely clear on this!

Children know no limits. They want, they must have, if not, they have a tantrum.

Adults know limits - or used to know them. Now, adults are more like children every day.

I don't care about classifying people into "left" and "right" any more. So boring. Fact is, paper rules all; who can retain any right, when the money he uses for savings, is nothing? Any man will have to obey, in order to have paper, in order to eat. Very simple. He can be either "left" or "right", he will still have to march when the order is given: paper rules him. Nations which do not obey, have their paper destroyed. Capish?

The only vote which can count, is the count of the man that owns gold! Only the property owner, the GOLD owner, can be truly independent. Foundation of a Republic - the property owners, the gold owners. Cannot be otherwise.

So, call me what you please. I never mean to offend, just to talk things over.

The GAB

R Powell
(06/11/2004; 10:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122032)
M.K. // Crawford report
Thanks for the current thoughts from Mr. Crawford whose reports are always interesting. Fwiw, I agree with his prediction for a higher POG and higher prices for most all "tangibles", raw materials and/or commodities. The basis of my reasoning has more to do with monetary matters than planetary ones but it's nice to know than these other indicators also support higher prices.

A higher POG seems logical given that gold, like most everything else, is priced in dollars and cents. I accept this as a fact even though so many seem to hold that the POG will/should/must somehow disconnect from being priced in comparison to whatever monetary unit is used.??

That the POG has not yet reflected the unfolding perception that inflation (meaning higher prices for goods and services) is somewhat of a mystery to this old goldbug. However, there are and will continue to be more factors and complications determining prices of everything than I will ever be able to fully understand despite my continuing efforts. Just to totally confuse me, I'm beginning to understand that there are some factors that might normally raise prices, under certain conditions, and those same factors can sometimes depress prices, under slightly altered conditions. Now, to really confound me, all these factors are constantly changing and their power or strength to determine prices (up or down) also seems to fluctuate. Am I hopelessly lost here?

So, the best I can do is evaluate conditions to the best of my ability, add patience, and invest for the longer time frame, which is my style (of necessity). Will the longer time that the POG spends near or below its 200 day moving average intensify the upside when it comes? Does the perception of higher inflation need yet more time before being reflected in the POG and commodities in general?

My long term (months and years) outlook (fwiw) still favors higher prices for almost everything (except perhaps orange juice!) with some specific items holding the potential for extreme moves....gold and silver, food and building materials (cement powder!!!) among this group. Again, patience is required (seven years for silver to awaken!).

As always, just one poor man's opinion. Thanks for the report and this venue.
And....Happy Weekend to All !!
rich
slingshot
(06/11/2004; 11:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122033)
When will it End
For the life of me, I read all these editorials about the M3 money and consumer and governmental debt. Bla,Bla,Bla! I have not seen the first sign of this debt monster's retreat. The dollar goes up and down.Oil goes up and down. The market goes up and down. Same old, same old. We are all looking for that special event to set things right and bring Gold front stage.
This game will go on till these words are said by every merchant and business man, "That will be cash", for every transaction. No more checks! No more credit cards! No more loans! Oh, just once I would like to go to the checkout and not hear, "Do you have a credit account with us?.
When I hear that word, CASH!. I will know for sure it has changed and Gold will be the talk of the town.
Slingshot-------------<>
Federal_Reserves
(06/11/2004; 12:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122034)
When will the bubble break?
Yes, many are waiting for the credit bubble to retract and bring asset values back to earth. Many false alarms (1998, and the Y2k 2000/01 bust) are examples..

Since 1981, long term interest rates have been in a secular decline. In times of stress (example 1998,2001) policy
makers were able to reduce rates, and provide a stimulus to pull us out. In addition, government spending could be stepped up, and taxes reduced.

The credit bubble will collapse, when policy makers no longer have these options. In a critical time
of consumer and international stress, rates will be rising, taxes too, and the policy makers will be unable to provide support.

A generalized investor class asset selling panic will ensue.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/11/2004; 12:32:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122037)
Choose gold and enjoy the real meaning of security
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations???

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

Aristotle
(06/11/2004; 13:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122038)
slingshot msg#: 122033 -- cash
That's an interesting thought... "That will be cash", for every transaction.

Let's put ourselves hip deep in it for a minute.

So here we are, standing in a sea of cash.

Sorta like the water cycle (rain, runoff, ocean evaporation, rain, runoff...etc.,) can I get you to ponder over the nature of all this transaction cash and its place within the whole cash cycle?

Can you see that you haven't really gotten away from credit at all?

For a good perspective, take a moment to have another look at a couple of Belgian's comments yesterday:

--------Belgian (06/10/04; 08:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 122001)
@KnallGold
The possibility of zero debt in Euroland has already been on the talking table, some time ago. But for some "dark" reasons, zero debt was found inappropiate !? Hey, wait a minute, papillon...how could the possibility of zero debt even come into question in the first place and WHY is it inappropiate to have debt reduced to zero... !?------------

------------Belgian (06/10/04; 10:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 122006)
I don't mind the ever growing debt-bergs on condition that my Gold-wealth (Value) can, and is allowed, to float freely in price and keep pace with the confetti depreciation. Sooooohoho simple !-----------

That man is on a roll!

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Dollar Bill
(06/11/2004; 22:27:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122041)
.,.
GAB, I knew that wasnt your line, figured you found it somewhere, as for names, I'll call you GAB! Hey, Im reading your posts aint I.
Dollar Bill
(06/11/2004; 22:36:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122042)
.,.
Sir MK, perhaps if the mood strikes would you snippet what interests you from the FT these last few days? Or take your time and whenever, give us your overview of the present situation.....you seemed to have had the proper take on things with your reasonings on the euro rise. Any new thoughts on changes that might be happening/looming?
Perhaps I missed a post where you covered that recently? I try not to miss those, but perhaps......
Black Blade
(06/11/2004; 23:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122043)
RE: MK - The Heavens (Arch Crawford)

Though I simply do not believe in Astrology or have much regard for TA ("Self full Filling prophecy"). I have to admit that I am surprised at the success and insight Mr. Crawford has on the markets. I think he obviously takes into account other more "Earthly" considerations as well.

Of course, considering that most of Mutual Fund managers (especially those in "sector" funds) are twenty somethings who have little knowledge of the markets or the history of US economic events), I suppose that many of these rent grad novices are given a chance to "make their bones" with some Fund Families before given more responsibility with larger scale inflows of investment and pension plan "money" (your retirement).

I have been watching how the equities markets have been moving strongly upward on "low-volume" trading days and moving strongly downward on "high-volume" trading days. Apparently some have been playing the Lemmings (many day traders � yep, some are still around) with strong starts only to pull the rug out of under them later. Another note is that Americans still have cold feet is that trading volume in the equities markets are down 14% in the DOW and down 22% in the NASDAQ over last year. Be carul out there and start off with hard assets (like precious metals and a storage program of nonperishable foods and basic necessities).

On a separate note � I went to the theater to see the comedy "The Day After Tomorrow" where some screenwriter perverted science to make an action comedy. More to the point were the amazing remarks I heard from former VP Al Gore on the merits of the movie. It was amusing that anyone of intelligence could take some actual movie and make claims to the "veracity" of such a scenario. Nevertheless it was a "B-Grade" movie even though from the same people who created the movie "Independence Day" movie when the cable guy with a notebook computer saved the world. Still I do try to find time for mindless entertainment to clear my mind from the daily stress of number crunching and map-making activities. I think that I may go see another like some sci-fi flick the weekend like "The Riddick Chronicles" before tackling another report for a client this weekend.

Anyway, playing the equities and bond markets for fun and games is one thing, doing so with other peoples retirement money is another, but building upon a personal "wealth pyramid" in sequence and skillfully with a steady plan is essential. I lucked out a couple of days ago as an acquaintance I work out with at the gym sold me 23 ounces of silver rounds near spot. I took the silver off his hands and relieved him of his "burden". ;-)

- Black Blade
Great Albino Bat
(06/12/2004; 04:06:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122044)
About the general atmosphere these days...

It seems to me that there is a kind of odd quiet on the markets around the world. Something strikes me with a different sensation, one of expectancy. The feeling is one of waiting and watching for something that is going to take place.

I'd say that the world is watching the US economy as one might watch a ship which is sailing straight for a reef. The ship is not going to slow down, it is not going to turn to port or starboard. It is going to hit the reef, and that will be that. So we are gathering to watch the awesome spectacle.

When the US ship hits the reef of high interest rates - possibly the fatal date is June 30th meeting of the Fed? - then all Hell is going to break loose as the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) blow up and take everything down with them.

Maybe it's this that has everything so quiet.

Good weekend to all!

The GAB


misetich
(06/12/2004; 07:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122045)
An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.htmlSnip:

But near the bottom of ChevronTexaco's financial filings is a much less promising statistic. For each of those years, ChevronTexaco's wells have produced less oil and gas than the year before. Even as reserves have risen, the company's annual output has fallen by almost 15 percent, and the declines have continued recently despite a company promise to increase production in 2002.

ChevronTexaco is not the only big oil company whose production is falling despite rising reserves, though it has the largest gap. As consumers, economists and governments around the world wonder if oil supplies can keep pace with rising demand, production trends at the industry's publicly traded companies are not promising.
.......................
But ChevronTexaco has promised to reverse its production declines before. In 2002 the company said that it expected its output to rise more than 20 percent by 2006, a forecast it has now dropped.

Royal Dutch/Shell, the world's third-largest oil company, admitted this year that it overstated its oil and gas reserves by 22 percent, the equivalent of 4.5 billion barrels of oil
.............................
"We're going to have another Shell," Mr. Simmons said. "They're not the only company that got optimistic on proved reserves." Neither Mr. Simmons nor anyone else is asserting that ChevronTexaco did anything illegal.
......................
The fall in production at the big oil companies does not portend an immediate crisis in the industry. The four so-called supermajors produce only a small fraction of the world's oil; together, they extracted 3.2 billion barrels last year, about 10 percent of production worldwide. (Some analysts classify Total, a French company slightly smaller than ChevronTexaco, as a fifth supermajor.)
......................
But these estimates are far from exact. For most countries, the details of reserves and output are closely guarded secrets. During the 1980's, the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries sharply raised their reserve estimates, because OPEC's output quotas were based in part on national reserves.

"Countries want a higher allocation, so they tweak their numbers," Mr. Gheit said. "Everybody lies about the reserve, so you want to make sure that you lie even more than the guy next to you."
.......................
"What we have now is meaningless data," Mr. Simmons said. Big oil companies once prided themselves on conservative reserve estimates. But today, to justify multibillion-dollar investments in politically or technologically risky fields, companies have become much more aggressive, he said.
..........................
"The data is starting to say that underlying all this, the supply-demand balance is tighter than we thought," Mr. Pfeifer said. "The maturing geological base is starting to rear its ugly head."
*****************
Misetich

The "overestimation" of oil reserves as Blackblade alerted all USA Gold forum readers for the last few years is becoming mainstream news, as production from maturing fields declines.

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues.....and its effects/impacts of price inflation are spreading through the global economies

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/12/2004; 07:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122046)
China's Squeeze on Credit Shows Signs of Success as Economy Slows
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/worldbusiness/12yuan.htmlSnip:

BEIJING, June 11 - A government-orchestrated credit squeeze is producing pockets of deceleration in China's economic growth, bringing inflationary pressures under control but possibly creating new headaches for the government here.

After rapid advances earlier this year, China's consumer price index abruptly dropped one-tenth of a percent in May from April, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Friday.

And in another sign of a slackening, China ran a trade surplus in May for the first time in five months as the Chinese became more cautious about buying imported goods, the official New China News Agency said Friday.

The fresh data echoed numbers on Thursday showing that the breakneck growth in new loans and industrial production through the spring had also slowed in May.
.......................
To be sure, parts of the economy remain extremely busy. Coal for power plants is in short supply, along with rail cars to carry it, as millions of increasingly prosperous Chinese have begun turning on recently acquired air-conditioners to cope with summer temperatures now approaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit here.

But administrative measures imposed on banks in late April are now having such a pronounced effect on many industries that the government may have to lighten them, said Tao Dong, a Credit Suisse First Boston economist. "The whole economy is getting seriously stretched, so soon the government needs to ease," he said.
..................
****************
Misetich

CHINA's intervention to cool-off overheated sectors appear to be working - The impact on commodity prices has been "minimal" - the recent correction was much needed - setting the stage for the next leg up - as CHINA finds the "conmfort zone" of growth it seeks

It is worthwhile noting that according to their reports retail sales are up a staggering 17% year over year....

The effects/impacts of CHINA continued growth are being underestimated by investors worldwide, except those in precious metals and commodities as price inflation is being fuelled in the so called industrialized world

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/12/2004; 08:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122047)
EU becomes China's largest trading partner in first five months of year
http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040612090448.rop5jt4rSnip:

The European Union, boosted by its expansion eastward, became China's biggest trade partner in May, outstripping Japan and the United States, state press reported Saturday.

Trade between the EU and China was valued at 65.7 billion dollars in the first five months of the year, up 35.9 percent on the same period last year, the Economic Daily reported, citing customs statistics.

It exceeded China's traditionally strong trade with Japan, with two way trade between the two neighbors valued at 64.1 billion dollars in the first five months of 2004, up 27 percent from last year, the report said.

Japan, however, was still China's number one source of imports.
****************
Misetich

EU is spreading its wings and establishing co-operative partnerships. It is quite "natural" for the Euro to gain market share vs the US $ as EU enlarges and exploits its "friendly and amicably ties" at the expense of ill perceived US policies

It is quite interesting to note how EU-China business deals are being fermented.....

Here's ANOTHER example - headline snip

Chinese order 20 Airbus jetliners (France's determination to boost ties with Beijing paid off yesterday)

In the meanwhile the war of words is heating up between US and CHINA over the Taiwan issue

CHINA has been flexing its muscles recently at the UN - threatning to use its veto power over a US seeked resolution, "to exempt its troops from international war crimes prosecutions while serving in any UN force in Iraq" -

Earlier CHINA intervened strongly in the Iraq transfer of power resolution taking the lead and suggesing major revisions

EU is exploiting the current situation to their best interests from South America, to EuroAsia, China - propelling for a bigger share of the pie for the EURO

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/12/2004; 09:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122048)
Newmont Capital function increases respect for gold
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/328634.htmSnip:

In Hansen's forecast, there exists a charming vision of a bull happily romping through fields of gold as gold market fundamentals remain positive.

In a presentation to the San Francisco Gold Forum this week, Hansen spoke to analysts, fund managers and other mining company representatives about Newmont Capital, the company's merchant banking function and its penchant for gold.
.....................
Newmont Capital also pursues gold marketing, refining, and production distribution. As an example, Newmont has become keenly interested in European and Australian Gold Refiners, Hansen said.
..................
Not surprisingly, Hansen believes the world's financial markets still have an affinity for gold, which can be relied upon. For example, the European Agreement on gold has been renewed. Newmont has landed on the Standard and Poor's 500 and the Fortune 500, which, Hansen feels, is also positive for gold. And, he noted, there is "still a lot of gold that's been sold forward out there, continues to be de-hedged or bought back" by mining companies.

Hansen theorizes that there is a seasonality of gold prices, which can include events such as the wedding season in India. Using indexes developed by Merrill Lynch, he concluded that gold tends to decline in the Spring and early Summer and rallies in late Summer and early Fall. Like other mining executives, Hansen is anxiously awaiting SEC approval of the exchange-traded fund, which has enjoyed success in Australia and London. Mining companies are hoping the Equity Gold Trust may convince generalist funds to go where they have not gone before. If and when the trust is trading on the NYSE, it could increase gold demand by 6.6 million ounces, according to estimates by Andy Smith of Mitsui Global Precious Metals.

Meanwhile, Hansen said investors should consider the $1.2 trillion in Long-Dated U.S. Treasuries accumulated by Asian Central Banks, the U.S. Current Account Surplus/Deficit, and what would happened if the banks decide to unwind some of their U.S. Treasuries holdings. Therefore, he predicted, "the dollar will continue to be under pressure and we think that is positive for gold."

Hansen, who is well respected within the industry for his expertise, said he has come to the conclusion "that we're just at the beginning of a bull gold market."
**************
Misetich

Newmont, the flagship of unhedged gold producers has grown in leaps and bounds, getting stronger as the vision of gold bull Lassonde materializes

The evolving strength of Newmont and its growing financial clout is a nail in the coffin for gold bears as the evolution makes Newmont less dependent on gold bullion bankers and their "squeeze to death tactics"

Thus those that are awaiting for hedgin to comeback are in denial as the "natural" (exclodes all previous known megahedgers such as Anglogold, Barrick Gold, PlacerDome) unhedged producers have taken the solid lead with clean balance sheet and brighter acquisition prospects at the expense of the the previous megahedgers who are struggling to cope with higher bullion prices and bleeding hedges - even though they're not shown in the balance sheets

The worst is still to come for the gold bears and former megahedgers

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Topaz
(06/12/2004; 10:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122049)
@968...All.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Welcome Aboard 968 ..re $200 PoG.
The deflationary collapse you allude to has, imo begun!
Where this will take the "price" of Gold is anybodies guess but to get to $200, I'd not expect a slow/steady "controlled" decline, rather a shock 1-3 day occurrence.
If we witness a controlled collapse then PoG may manage a run to $450 as a precursor to the final washout.
It's MOST important to try and disassociate Gold and Price at this juncture, and of course, Metal in Hand is Gospel du jour.
Chart indicates PPoG outperforming it's alt currency mates lately.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/12/2004; 11:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122050)
Peace of mind, 24/seven
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Melting Pot
(06/12/2004; 12:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122051)
93% of US ships and 72% of subs are underway or at sea and 4000+ aircraft
http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/.www/status.htmlDefending the dollar against Euro now underway???

"EU becomes China's largest trading partner in first five months of year"

http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040612090448.rop5jt4r

"The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag." --Major General Smedley Butler, USMC.

Smedley Butler on Interventionism

http://www.fas.org/man/smedley.htm
Liberty Head
(06/12/2004; 13:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122052)
White House Race Causes Investor Jitters
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040612/bs_nm/column_stocks_week_dc
Supposedly, Bush is the investors choice and the jitters are due to the pending voter backlash expected in Nov.

If Wall Street wants a Republican president, they certainly have their work cut out for them.
Things are quite interesting now and heating up more with each passing day.

I wonder what Wall Street thinks of Rep. Ron Paul? Heh heh!
Oh well! One can hope for the best and hold gold in the meantime.

Best Wishes
Belgian
(06/12/2004; 14:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122053)
@GAB
I share your assesment of the particular general athmosphere. Looking at those 10 yrs $-�-IRs charts...
IRs seem to head, AGAIN, towards their LT resistance line of the declining channel. The longer higher IRs are postponed...the more difficult it will be to organize IRs-optimums. Remains to be seen, if and when, IRs are going to have a dramatic impact and on what exactly !?

But,...the dollar exchange rate (versus �) "seems" (!!!) to build strength as I interprete the TA on the charts !?
The only explanation, for the time being, could be that in the *initial* run up of the $-IRs, the dollar is pulling strength for a while ???
Then there was that outspoken message from Russel's Dow letters about the dollar-positive effects of the global deflation !? Because, the FED is NOT dollar-inflating enough !!! A seductive theory...but the message (the idea) sounded a bit too propagandistic to me. I might have it wrong here.

In the mean time, the oil-intriges continue with the Libya-Saudi Arabia, affair.

Am happy to be a shrimp.
specie-man
(06/12/2004; 15:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122054)
"The Day After Tomorrow"
I saw the movie. Like BB says, the science aspects of the movie are hokey (as usual for Hollywood). But how else could you conjer up a full-blown ice age in just a matter of weeks ? Most movie goers don't want to wait 10 minutes - let alone 10,000 years.

But I enjoyed the visual aspects (that is what I went for anyway). While I don't wish disaster to befall anyone, there is something strangely compelling about watching a 200-foot wall of water (storm surge) hitting New York City. Or a giant tornado taking out skyscrapers in LA.

In the very last scene, when the sun comes out and New York is frozen over, you see a fleet of helicopters landing on roofs to rescue survivors. In reality, how much do you want to bet the black choppers would head to the NY Fed bank first ?

After the movie I took the back exit out of the theatre. I opened the door and was immediately hit with a cold blast of wind coming out of the hills. Last week it was almost 100 degrees (F) here. Today it won't get out of the sixties.

Cometose - sounds like you noticed the odd weather too.

PS: There seems to be a lot of folks from the Colorado region on this board. One thing we don't have to worry about is tidal waves and storm surges.

Great Albino Bat
(06/12/2004; 21:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122055)
$200 US/oz gold? Look at it this way...

If we ever see $200 gold - well, I mean, it's possible, just like we might see a shift the position of the Poles - think a minute about the circumstances.

You worry you will have say, 1/2 as many dollars available because your gold fell to about 1/2 of its present price? Forget your worries!

You WILL have your gold, physically in your possession. It will not have vanished.

What will have vanished, will have been mountains and mountains of paper promises which a lot of people, who thought they were wealthy, were holding as the foundations of their "wealth". Millions of silly people who today consider themselves as affluent, will be living hand-to-mouth. Their paper promises in default, their stocks in bankrupt companies. Finis to a (paper) drug-induced dream.

But you will have your $200 gold. You won't feel sorry for yourself, you will be thankful that you have it. Those $200 per ounce will, in a deflationary collapse, buy you many, many times more things than you can buy with $200 today.

So, stop worrying! Forget the price, buy when you can! Break the spell of Number (quantity of empty digits)- and value Substance (quality of pure gold) and hold to that purpose.

The GAB





Belgian
(06/12/2004; 23:55:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122056)
250$ POG....IRs near zero....
Are signs-evidences, that the "function" of what is "called" money...IS *changing* !!! Your money...your debt-confetti...your virtual credits...have been changed, already, in their original function. That's what almost gratis Gold is confusingly telling you...us. This is a gigantic political maneuvering !!! Difficult to grasp, when one doesn't have an idea what is the "real nature" of politics. The real political moves (plans) are made behind the screens, whilst the general public is being politico-entertained !!!

Gold and its paper-price is trapped between the "organized" falling demand to use PHYSICAL OWNERSHIP as a hedge (insurance) against a digitalizing confetti risk as the consequence of its changing function...the great confetti game.

Confetti-digital credits, have come under the complete control of those that manage the creation of it, whilst the general public is hooked firmly to this changing use of fiat. Fiat is NOT a wealth saver anymore...fiat has been gradually losing the little credibility it had !!! This is NOT a drama...We keep "using" those credit-units for economical transaction purposes. But we need a WEALTH BEAKON...ANCHOR !!! This is a (behind the screens) ongoing political reality, that is unfolding. The absurd PAPER-Gold valuation is saying so, because of its blatant absurdness ($250 >>>$200 POG)

POLITICAL FORCES (!!!) are ***USING ***, both GOLD's AND FIAT's changing functions in our modernizing economic structure !!! A/FOA have been communicating this to us, the privileged. A GOLDEN GIFT of deep insights into what is really happening behind the curtains of the politico-tainment!!!

The "QUALITY" of what we use to call "money" is being rapidly abandoned, purposely, as to continue-expand the demand...use, whilst changing its "function" in the process.

Unpaperize yourself mentally and follow confetti's changing function. Search for what is REAL WEALTH if you wish to consolidate it. REAL MONEY will NOT come back !!!
Belgian
(06/13/2004; 01:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122057)
The price...the pricing...of GOLD !
It is on CPM (only) that we enjoy the World primeur on the "unmasking" of the price-pricing process of Gold, since 1971. Many,...MANY, very different aspects are involved into Gold's price/pricing. And this is definitely very confusing for all those that remained Gold-connected for so long. Not only for the many little goldbugs, but for many "heavy" goldphiles/adepts, as well.

Gold and more precisely its pricing, has been maneuvered into a multi facetted "bribery" function, directed towards select groups (a variety) of discrete privileged to be found in the differing (diverging) camps of the dollar - euro - oil - central banks.

Gold is the elite group, within the currency-armies, constantly at war ! All currencies (confetti) are being (purposely) disconnected from what once was the Gold-anchor. Confetties MUST "float", whilst the Gold-anchor sinks to the bottom of the ocean, disconnected from its its currency-chains. And sinking it did...> $250/Oz !!!

The Gold-rescue-divers, already plunged into the deep blue, as to salvage the *intact* Gold-wreck and to surface it !!!
This time, the same old mistake of "anchoring" the floating currencies to Gold, will not be repeated !!! Gold will now be made floatable and the currencies will be free to follow Gold or not. Confetti will be anchored to the floating Gold beakon ... FREEGOLD !!!

What a gigantic change, that will be... is !

The Gold bribery will have stopped...not needed anymore,... and the practical, modern, confetti - *use* - will have been saved...for ever !!!

WHY do you think that there have been so much Gold-statements, since the introduction of the euro !!!-???
There were no CB goldsales during the period (one decade of ecu) that the euro was out of sight...out of mind !
The euro must have changed..."something"...something golden, no !?

The ongoing "functional" change of the confetties, is impacting the dollar-RESERVE-system. WHY do have we been accumulating dollars as reserves as to perceptually consolidate our wealth...our respective competiviness,...whilst knowing that we were accumulating nothing else but a pursang debt-paper !? We needed to do this, whilst waiting for the Gold-Change to be materialized.

Many, very competive forces, don't mind accumulating more of the same dollar-debt...ON CONDITION THAT ONE CAN ADD TO THE GOLD RESERVES...at obscene prices...through a massive, stealth, GOLD "re-distribution" program !!!

It happened before !!! The US shipped 20,000 tonnes of the precious...and then Nixon slammed the Golden doors !!! But much of the Gold (reserves-wealth) were already "re-distributed"...to Euroland !!! Now, Gold is moving further (redistributed) from center Euroland to the East !!! That is more than a 3 decades old, singular move...AWAY from the dollar-reserve-system !!!

ALL serious goldprice/pricing commentators/observers, should pause and think about the above, when commenting, shortsightingly, any further on the "price" of Gold.

Haven't you noticed how extremely "silent" that the goldminers have become !!!-???

Nice WE to all.
Steve22
(06/13/2004; 03:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122058)
Why I think you should buy gold
What do the purchase of inherently worthless US Treasury bonds, the pricing of oil indollars, and then Soviet President Mikael Gorbachev's duplicitous statements in 1987 have in common with each other? They are all signs of the grand self-deception, whereby the arbitrators of the war system, otherwise known as the "war brokers" exercise their priveleged positions quitely, i.e. without overt power struggles. That is, these things are all signs of the fact that behind our civilized facade the pulse of the cyclic process by which the weaker bands of males get seeded out, otherwise known as war, BEAT STRONGLY! And now the human race has evolved the technology by which they
can harness a preposterously large percentage of the life-energy, i.e. photosynthetic energy, to create exponentially increasing numbers of ourselves. Unfortunately, and alarmingly, the three signs mentioned above go blissfully unnoticed as the two waves constructively interfere to create a single pulse of cubic proportions. In essence, the two waves work together and are further exacerbated by the exponential effects coming into severe and alarming contradiction with the consumption of non-renewable resources.

With no frame of reference to know that our population numbers are growing to increasingly unstable proportions of the life-producing non-renewable energy source, plus the fact that it is physically impossible for the majority of the population to take protective measures against the coming implosion; survival for the many is out of the question. The issue is then not an ethical one but a judgement of sheer will to determine if one will embrace the tragedy of the commons, or recognize our own true nature in preparing for a natural event.

It is not much different than not swimming too far out into the ocean when the tide is high and the waves are higher. Death is an inevitability, but to avoid it for as long as possible, and in as favorable conditions as possible is an imperative. "In as favorable conditions as possible". THAT is why you should buy gold.
The CoinGuy
(06/13/2004; 03:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122059)
Belgian
Belgian,

Nothing else to say but "Thanks".

The CoinGuy
Knallgold
(06/13/2004; 05:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122060)
$/POG
"Belgian (6/12/04; 14:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 122053)

But,...the dollar exchange rate (versus ?) "seems" (!!!) to build strength as I interprete the TA on the charts !?
The only explanation, for the time being, could be that in the *initial* run up of the $-IRs, the dollar is pulling strength for a while ???"

Would this be Anothers "in the end the $ and Gold will rise together"?This theory was tried to apply several times during last years but never really fitted to be obvious.It would make sense now though:$-strength because of the prospect and then reality of higher IR's.What might stun all mainstreamers is that Gold would also gain in momentum because of the anticipation of the end game of even higher IR's/hyperinflation/debt bomb BREAK OF THE $.
Topaz
(06/13/2004; 13:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122062)
trouble ... with a capital T.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=River City looks bleak this coming week as the Oil/$ wedlock is set to head north.
To avert this I'd be expecting Heaven and Earth be moved to get those T's (Yield) moving south with some conviction ... recall our "safe-haven" objective sub 5% on the long end? .. it's rate of decline must be "gradual" (as must the RoD Oil/DX) to retain any semblance of a "market".

6 weeks and counting!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/13/2004; 19:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122063)
In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing
by Michael J. Kosares

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

OvS
(06/13/2004; 23:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122064)
Belgian
This Sunday we only had 5 posts.
That's nothing to worry about.
One post by Belgian is enough to
provoke one's mind. Not just the
rational but although the medita-
tive mind...I drink to the Son of
the Guru, ahead of the crowd..OvS
mikal
(06/13/2004; 23:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122065)
Insurance
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5173972/ MSNBC - For sale by public auction -- juicy laptop secrets

Another article emphasizing the importance of security, be it gold, food, friendship, etc. In this case, the startling
vulnerabilities of machines and men in a "high-tech" world.
Does your computer abide by "The Golden Rule" or someone else's?
Aristotle
(06/14/2004; 00:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122066)
OvS, agreed!
I'd rather have people read Belgian's post for a second time than waste the effort reading anything I might put forth this day.

For that matter, I'd rather spend my time re-reading his contribution than putting any more effort in mi
mikal
(06/14/2004; 00:29:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122067)
Insurance
http://www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/holes/story/0,10801,93803,00.html New Internet Explorer holes causing alarm - Computerworld
Just a quick, final reminder of the strange, wonderful world of modern communications systems and
that we ALL share accountability
in maintaining constructive, open and free channels
without further bureaucratic "solutions".
Happy surfing!
OvS
(06/14/2004; 01:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122068)
Aristotle
You are too modest. We all enjoy
READIING your provoking posts...
but to SEE and HEAR you...that
would be really entertaining.
I have a feeling that many of CPM's
clients have put all their eggs into
one basket in the hope to gather a
small fortune in the immediate future.
That can be taxing; they need to
convert a few eggs every day for
energy, and the slow depletion happening
makes them apprehensive.
I would venture to guess, that such an
extreme investment philosophy might
just work out fine: Even should there
be further errosion in the price of
gold when the tide turns, most people
will miss the boat...so listening to
Russell's advise might not be the right
thing to do for people with a wider
perspective...Cheers.OvS
Aristotle
(06/14/2004; 02:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122069)
OvS, eggs and baskets
I reckon the guiding wisdom of eggs in baskets depends mostly upon the mission of the courier.

I don't see it so much as an issue of percentage of of all or none or somewhere in between. Let me elaborate.

Back in the day, when I had occasion to assist (meaning observe) my dear grandmother in the baking of delicious pies and breads, and it was discovered that more eggs were needed complete the job, I'd be sent to the hen house with, drumroll please... yes, a basket.

I assure you, much more important than the issue of whether or not I put *ALL* of the eggs in that *ONE* basket, was the issue of whether or not I arrived back to the kitchen with eggs, yes, REAL EGGS in that basket.

Dear grandmother never once interrogated me on the finer detail of the actual percentage of eggs that I delivered from their previous hen owners. The thing that determined whether or not we'd be enjoying our cake later that day was whether or not I had indeed gathered Eggs.

I'd have been a perfect fool in the errand had I taken the so-called "investment" route and filled my egg-basket with a diversified portfolio of egg-producer shares (some feathers) or even a wholly-owned egg producer (a hen) or egg futures (some baby chicks or a bag of feed) or some sort of paper eggs (I can draw exceptionally good ovals; I think of a perfect circle, and then simply fail in the attempt.)

If you want to bake a cake, you definitely need Real Eggs to crack; and if you want to build meaningful savings, you definitely need Real Gold.

Every "courier" needs to understand his objective, and within that context, perhaps it is entirely appropriate to have in his basket Eggs, and nothing but Eggs.

As I've said previously, for me, I think converting my earnings excesses into carrying 100% Gold savings is the perfect balance to my 100% DOLLAR-denominated incomes. Seen that way, I don't think anyone could accuse me of having ALL of my eggs in one basket, but OH how they do envy me my basket. I doubt I could forever reliably inspire that same degree of clout with a bunch of my oval-bearing papers.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(06/14/2004; 02:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122070)
@KnallGold : $ + Gold rising together !?
Don't stay fixated on this, Sir. It was said, within a certain * context *, some years ago, already.

Up until now, the dollar (exchange rate + purchasing power) hasn't collapsed AND Gold hasn't exploded in any major currency-price. In fact, NOTHING HAS BEEN HAPPENING...YET !!! No dramas. (idem dito for IRs-stockmarkets-derivative catastrophies-oilprices)

This IS still the "perfect" financial/monetary, world as it appears on the surface !
That is exactly what is the most worrysome. (reality & fiction-MK)

It is under a quiet, blue clear sky, that these, Gold and fiat, "functional" changes are "evolving".

From 1985 to 1995, the dollar more than halved in price and nothing catastrophical happened. Today, POG hasn't even doubled from a 10 year low ($250).

The "relative" dollar-strength is needed (nescessarary) as to keep everything quiet...contained...and collapse-free.

The more people, who do agree more on the fact that underneath, we have a dollar-wreckage ...the more those same people agree to co-operate in keeping everything under control, during the planned transition. One keeps running with his old shoes up until you have a new pair of fitting shoes in hand.

In other words...I think that the sky is NOT going to fall on this planet in an all destructive/devastating way !!!

The economic world did not stop with almost zero IRs in Japan (N�2) or with 45 year lows in other IRs ($-�).
Let's move away from the blinding catastrophy-theories...and projections !!!

Does not mean that the "changes" will materialize, shock-free. Each relative shock will be simple evidence that we are approching "the change" a bit closer. Look how the oil-swing-producer, Saudi Arabia, is acting "responsible" ! Isn't this a nice example of general catastrophy containment !? Look how nobody is throwing its masses of dollar-reserves overbord...and massively shifting into the Gold-Wealth-Reserve, all at once in a big scramble !!!
All these funds that have "Trillions" invested in stockmarkets, are NOT dumping en masse. We cannot afford ...we don't want..."change" with a series of consecutive devastating collapses.

We are building safety-nets for the moment that certain shocking events will have to take place.
Permanent depreciating currencies, high POO, very low IRs, overvaluations, derivatives... are already shocking enough.
The ECB's, marking to market concept of its goldreserves, are the perfect example of such a safety net !!! The concept was not designed to deliberately destroy the (irresponsible) dollar competitor !
Those who wish to re-establish FreeGold (the change) don't want Gold to behave irresponsible with (through) an organized (concerted) dollar-devastating goldprice explosion ! On the contrary...keep on "using" the dollar-fiat-system...let the dollar exchange rate float, quietly...whilst an undamaging goldprice/pricing runs its course, during the re-positioning. Asians, with their growing stashes of dollar-reserves, are acting responsibly by not "dumping" these dollar-(debt)-reserves. Don't crash the dollar-exchange rate and keep POG quiet, whilst comfortably getting re-organised in anticipation of "functional" changes. This attitude suits the dollar very well. But how is the dollar preparing (anticipating) its loss of reserve status ... !!!-??? I think the dollar can't do anything more than "postponing" that reservestatus loss, for as long as possible. That's WHY CBs stand ready to intervene, should the price of Gold (AG)...rise...explode (cfr.1980) ! Q : Wich CBs (FED-ECB) and for how long and for what "different" purposes !?

Reflect, again, on how we are able to limit (and postpone)the damagaging effects of defaults. This is only possible, because we are being degradating confetti (digits) to useable, practical monopoly-paper...as its sole function ! Including all derivatives. As a former firm cash-addict,...I went plastic, also (smile slingshot). Plastic...digital credits...managed by the political-debt-driven economy.

I got some deeper (new) insights during this week of Euroland elections. The masses are evolving "unconsciously" and absolutely NOT aware that there IS an invisible hand that is guiding the "directional" move !!! Most people are "momentum" players and wish to *create* as many (and as big, momentum-waves (wavelets), as possible ! This is not only a financial phenomenon. But imo, there are no Big,...BIG, waves anymore. It seems to be difficult-impossible to let leverage do its job. Derivatives look rather to dampen the waves and provide that false feeling of insurances, through virtual stabilization. The much touted �-$ exchange rate target of 1,30-1,40 isn't appearing on the screens !!! Is there really an invisible hand that rules (disciplines) the financial gurus !? I think, there is, dearest forumers...I think, there is !


Aristotle
(06/14/2004; 02:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122071)
OvS, to cut to the dessert, so to speak...
You said:
"...I have a feeling that many of CPM's
clients have put all their eggs into
one basket in the hope to gather a
small fortune..."

I hope that anyone reading my previous will come away with a better perspective -- that *hope* has NOTHING to do with it. With our basket of Golden Eggs, we have in fact ALREADY GATHERED our fortune.

And although we continue to strive and gather as opportunity allows, now we sit back and watch the world's politicians and sundry billions come around to what we already know.

Apply the principles of supply and demand to FreeGold (physical market) in that scenario and you'll see the powderkeg of potential upon which we'll rider ever the higher than our spirits already are.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(06/14/2004; 03:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122072)
Ari...Ari....Ari....krishna
WHAT A WONDERFULL POST !!! I find it wonderfull, not because I happen to have my basket filled with golden eggs...But, because you have gone diametrically against that thing called, common sense...don't put all your eggs into one basket !? And guess what...I'm still hanging around with the chickens...for more golden eggs, the metallic ones, hughhhh ! Do you know what I feed those chickens...No...? Well, they are picking "paper" grains...from that HUGE...IMMENSE stash of paper, out there !!! And I have a very "convenient" little public secret...they have not the slightiest idea about how much of that (monopoly)paper really exists out there...they even don't mind, having lost the accountability of it (flashing virtual digits).

These golden eggs seem so cheap and are deeply percepted as so worthless, that I'm standing here almost alone, with the chickens and my basket. Today's cakes are NOT made with real eggs anymore...why should they...we chew paper-cakes, today...yammie, yammie...plenty of them (paper-cakes)...voluptuesly available for each and everyone...the great bachanal !

The derivative-pills are there, freely available, as to mask indigestion symtoms. Common sense, no !

And then I refer, again, to what used to be...common sense...5% of Gold in one's portfolio ! What *was* that (blabla-haha) good for ??? The "paperizers" tell you what is common sense and say what has to be in your basket ! Thanks guys...thanks ! I want my mam's "real" cake and you can surely have your cake too. Enjoy it, paperazzis. Have fun.

968
(06/14/2004; 03:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122073)
(Free)gold - Euro
Goodmorning all !!! Belgian, Topaz, Knallgold, GAB, thanks all for your answers on the Prechter 200$ POG topic.
I was thinking further on the (Free)gold price price explosion. Suppose POG goes through the roof, the dollar-system will, as we all agree, fail. But what will happen to the Euro-system. Suppose all people, worldwide, dump their stocks, T-bills,... and put their money in gold. Why should the Euro system survive ? Suppose all gold contracts also don't want Euro settlement, but physical delivery because of the rush on gold ? Where will the Euro system be ? Won't we have a dual currency system for a while ? Gold on one side and Euros/Swiss Francs (or whatever) on the other side ? What measures will the ECB take ? Looking forward on your thoughts !!!!!!!!
Ag Mountain
(06/14/2004; 05:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122074)
@ 968
That's a mouthful of questions but I don't see any evidence of very much chewing before you're trying to swallow about a week's worth of lunches. Instead of asking for the Heimlich maneuver how about showing us your choppers in action and work your way up to the meat starting from the salad?

See, once upon a time there was a very talented carpenter who never got to build a house because someone always kept him busy pounding the same nails.
Topaz
(06/14/2004; 05:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122075)
What options?
The gallant Sir Al will awaken to an ugly picture this morn. Bonds soft, Dollar up ... do we monetise ad-infinitum? or do we reach into the quiver and attempt a shot(s) to the heart of the Beast? Four Arrows left hmmm! A pre-meeting double shot may get us over the line by Jun 30. "Summon the Archers!"
Belgian
(06/14/2004; 07:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122076)
Hoi Socrates
Line per line...

It is a failing dollar-system (dollar and price hyper-infladada) that will crash the established dollar-paper-goldmarket. Not the other way around !
The euro-system is supported by the rising price of its Wealth Value Reserves (mtm). Why should it crash ?
People are not going "to be able" to dump their dollar-paper. Most (absolute majority) will have to keep their paper...and watch it devalue. With the very little paper-purchasing power that is left...very little amounts of very high priced Gold can be obtained in Physical form. The gold-contracts will have no choice...a depreciating dollar...an appreciating euro (and alikes)...VERY little Physical Gold available at ever higher prices !!!

The ECB has already taken the measures it needed to take...full waterproof protection against a detoriating dollar + additional (complementary), automatic support for the euro, through euroGold.

The Golden FreeGold gate, is (will be) there for those who
wish to "preserve" their Wealth. And the new, modern goldmarket will be of no practical use for the gold-gamblers, anymore.

When Gold has been RE-VALUED...the taxman will come to Gold-trade (PHYSICAL TRADE)...Note, AGAIN...that Gold is NOT taxed, today !!! But, as in the good old times, wealth...REAL WEALTH,... was always taxed very little ! In contrast with this,...all paper will get super taxed as to keep a firm grip on paper (euro included), now to be anchored, as good or as badly (politically) possible, to floating PHYSICAL Gold, always priced higher, proportionally to fiat (digit) depreciation !!! REAL LEADING GOLD WEALTH, floating in the epicenter, with functional confettis around it.

We have no indication as to know if the US will participate in the FreeGold solution, or not. The US might probably remain, internally, outside the FreeGold concept and cede the dollar's reserve role to the euro & Co. Or, Euroland might be waiting for the US, when it is ready and willing to board FreeGold as well.

ALL currencies are further going to compete with each other, as before,...but,...AROUND AND THROUGH THEIR WORTH AGAINST GOLD !!! Each and every fiat will be measured against euro-Gold as the new modern *** FLOATING *** Wealth standard. Gold and only Gold will tell you how wealthy you really are. Your confetties will always be at risk, against Gold and nothing else. Some currencies might be (remain) as good as Gold, others will be worthless, against Gold.

Not that much change against what is happening know...against the semi-fixed $-POG. Next will be floating �-POG. (fixed versus floating and $ versus �).
Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/14/2004; 09:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122077)
Belgian,how can free gold exist in the Euro universe?


"The netted annualized delivery commitments of US banks largely match their gold miner client s output and hedging, which peaked along with the US bank s delivery commitments most recently in early Q3 99 and Q1 2000. Though their speculation was substantial, they were not the big irresponsible parties on their own. The large European banks were.

The problem remains, however, that these derivatives positions are not the main issue, it is the unknown reserve ratio on bank gold accounts and the extent to which gold account liabilities of banks are backed by gold, gold derivatives, other gold denominated or gold producing assets, or assets unrelated to gold.

FOA and Another had portrayed their understanding of the gold situation as US banks having shorted substantial amounts of gold which would be impossible to cover. As a result, these bank s gold obligations would be defaulted. Since default would have pricing of paper gold go to 0 shorting paper gold by European banks would be a no-lose proposition. The European banks did just that, and with the most reckless abandon. They now find themselves holding the bigger bag."

ORO,Feb 6,2003

ORO also said euro 350 was the line in the sand,the euro/gold chart certainly backs that assertion up.
Federal_Reserves
(06/14/2004; 10:21:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122078)
Business cycle
Since the stock market bubble broke in 2000, and not wanting to repeat the mistakes of the great depression of the 1930's as that stock bubble broke, the policy makers have put into place many contra-cyclical, anti-depression, anti-K wave measures. They have decided not to repeat the sins of the fathers. During the depression they reduced money supply and banks failed today they have increased it and banks are healthy, during the depression interest rates rose, today they have reduced them, government spending and taxes were increased during the last depression, today they have increased spending and reduced taxes. Policy makers have also prevented a collapse of trade by speaking out against protectionism, and in fact trade has been increased and promoted (CAFTA), during the depression a restrictive tariff bill passed. Thusly, the mistakes of the depression have not be repeated - all except one - the gap between rich and poor is growing and the credit bubble which helps bridge that gap still exists and in fact is getting worse. At some point, the rich/poor credit bubble gap will pop on the back of an inability to expand and/or pay, and the rich bagholders who hold title to the debt will panic and sell inflated credit bubble paper assets. The business cycle is just that, a cycle, and a like the seasons cannot be avoided.
Melting Pot
(06/14/2004; 12:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122079)
Pinocchio's Nose and Government Statistics
http://www.howestreet.com/mainartcl.php?ArticleId=458Forget the snips, go directly to Jay Taylors excellent essay at the link!

SNIPS:

Since Pinocchio's nose has gotten so long (lies have been piled upon lies), the rebalancing that Roach talks about will be unbelievably painful. As such, no politician or corporate executive can afford to have this process take place on his/her time. And so I believe we are seeing increasing desperation on the part of policy makers to deny the truth, starting with the enormous growth in the money supply which is the most fundamental economic lie and process of theft of all. But I agree with Roach. Sooner or later these efforts to conceal the truth will fail. Unfortunately, the longer the time before the lies are exposed, the more painful the adjustment back to equilibrium.

A return to equilibrium is what the Kondratieff winter is all about. Ultimately the inflated system is returned to equilibrium because the debt simply becomes much too large to be repaid. Again, we must publish the following chart because we think it illustrates why, with mathematical certainty, we are ultimately headed for a devastating deflation .

Remember, the raw material from which money is created out of thin air in a fiat monetary system such as ours is debt. And so as policy makers try to cover up the reality of our economy and to deliver vote-gaining results by "printing" more and more money at a faster and faster pace (remember Pinocchio's nose), debt (red line) grows much more rapidly than income (blue line). Under threat of force our policy makers can and have chosen to define money by fiat. They then proceed to use their coercive power to rob common, ordinary people of the wealth they create with their minds and hands by issuing more and more of this debt money which having no intrinsic value is simply a claim against the wealth created by those without access to the dollar printing presses as discussed above. So these ruling elite can make M-3 grow and in the process by definition cause debt to grow dramatically as pictured above. However, they cannot grow income (blue line) at such a rapid pace because the ability to generate income is constrained by the natural limits of the real world we live in, and the politicians are powerless to do anything about that.

Federal Reserve Board members like Meyers can continue to trash gold and the wisdom of markets. These policy makers are no different in their thought process than fascist or communist policy makers. In fact, I will be so bold as to say that is exactly what they are. The notion that money supply can be managed by a small number of ruling elitist dictators rather than the markets, and that government can, better than millions of individuals, decide better and more efficiently than the markets what to consume and invest in is the biggest and most basic lie of all. To create the illusion that such a falsehood was correct, they had to trash gold and make it illegal to use as a money. That led to bigger and bigger distortions as money from thin air, like heroin to a drug addict, was highly pleasurable and seemed to provide some many benefits. But in the longer term, the big lie must be exposed because no policy maker, no matter whether he has a degree form Oxford or Cambridge, or Harvard or Yale or Princeton, can manage markets.

Going forward, I believe what we need to watch most closely are interest rates. Why so? Because given the huge amount of debt relative to income, rising rates will likely lead us to a deflationary collapse of our economy.

At some point, those interest rates will trigger the debt repudiation, and following that economic implosion, we will see interest rates plunging, along with the economy. At some point, at much, much higher rates of interest, it may be time to buy U.S. Treasuries. For now, cash and gold are the best bets, and of course, stay out of debt because as deflation takes hold, paying off debt will become more and more difficult.
Aristotle
(06/14/2004; 14:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122080)
Hiya, Melting Pot. Let's *really* talk about Deflation.
You know how some cars get repaired while other cars get towed to the junkyard? Or how some buildings undergo remodeling while others are razed and rebuilt from the ground up?

Sometimes the dysfunction of a thing is so overwhelming that it's just plain easier to start from scratch, and so it is with that deflation article. The best course of action isn't to build on it but to carry on by as though it never existed in the first place.

Sometimes I think the guys propagating this sorta mischief must work for the Federal Reserve. They would have you believe that not only can they breath new life into an old corpse, but that they can further invigorate it into a championship sprinter. Ain't gonna happen, dude. There's nothing magically immortal about a dollar that ensures that it can't fall to zero as a currency unit. As a creation springing forth from our system of contracts, there's just no way that its individual worth will actually grow in an environment as they describe it, filled with defaults.

In thinking that way they've obviously put the cart before the horse, believing somehow that it's income in the lead, dictating the fate/size of the new credit/debt money supply which slavishly follows. That's not how it is. If you want to think about income in its real place, you must first see money such as it is in its true light. In a best-case scenario it's an extension of good credit based on capital, but in a declining scenario it may be simply an extension of debt (bad credit) as governments are sometimes wont to do. Good or bad, either way, if you want to talk about and get your mind around deflation as a concept, you've first got to see that its money up front leading the way -- otherwise you're only seeing the system backwards, as a fancy elaboration on barter. And that's definitely *NOT* the world we're all living in today.

Hence, as there is nothing materially preventing the dollar's depreciation (shrinkage in size as an accounting unit,) there is similarly nothing materially barring the path to a swelling of new money creation in the leading position. See it this way -- if dollars were to become as pennies, look how many more you'd borrow into existence as you and your banker gave birth to a new home mortgage.

If that's not the problem with these various commentators, then maybe what's happening is that when they talk about these so-called inevitable deflations, they're actually confusing "deflation" with what they really mean -- some sorta real recession. And in the political context of the day's reality, that's nothing more and nothing less than economic fertilizer for the growth rate of the next phase of inflation. In the modern era of fiat currencies, the forecast calls for never-ending inflation with scattered episodes of price stability.

But hey, if a warped sense of deflation is what it takes to get some of these guys into Gold, then maybe all's well that ends well, and I should just shaddupaboudit already.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(06/14/2004; 14:58:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122081)
@Bizarro...The CB-Gold enigma :
We all do keep running in (speculative) circles, concerning our different views on what all those different CB-Gold-commitments really are or aren't. Now, let's suppose that there would be indications from wich one could conclude that the ECB and the euro National Banks are "stupid" (irresponsible) and are holding the "bag", as you (or Oro) suggested...
Why isn't (hasn't) anyone elaborating on the question "WHY" (under wich circumstances) this supposed stupidity took place !? WHY !?

During all these years that we are discussing this particular CB-(Gold)aspect-position-commitment, I have been asking a lot of LOGICAL questions which all remain(ed) totally unanswered.
I questioned, because I refuse to accept (believe-suspect) that CBs are "that" stupid,...remain that stupid,...and have no way out !?

If you are suggesting that FreeGold can never be materialized...because of euro CB stupidity (irresponsibility)...Then how do "you" see Gold, its price and pricing, evolve !? Where has the CB-Gold gone (10,000-15,000 tonnes ?) !? Has CB Gold been "delivered" and consequently been privatized !?

Give me "one" good reason WHY CBs are stupid on gold-reserve matters. TIA, Bizarro...and a warm wellcome to the table.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/14/2004; 15:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122082)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

excerpts of US market close:

August gold futures closed down $2.40 from the previous close on Thursday to stand at $384.20 an ounce, in trading from $386.90 to $383.20.

...futures sagged Monday on fears that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates quickly if inflation speeded up, which would boost the dollar and dent the yellow metal, traders said.

"The overwhelming fear is higher interest rates and that is going to help the dollar go higher, which in turn makes gold go lower," said Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management.

Despite gains in the euro after a morning report showing a wider U.S. trade gap, the U.S. currency remains strong in general, which has taken the shine off gold in recent days.

The trade deficit in April flared out to a record $48.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $45 billion, as strong consumer demand and the highest oil prices in 21 years pushed imports to record levels, the government said.

Kaplan said he believes the recent bull market in gold has transformed into a probablesideways trading range between $370 and $430 an ounce for the next six months to a year. "But long-term, I see gold going higher and the dollar lower," Kaplan said...

(see url for access to full news and global headlines)
Belgian
(06/14/2004; 15:45:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122083)
About analysts-economists-goldwatchers...and alumni
WHAT exactly are all those specialists, who comment on Gold and its price, expecting or advocating !?
Everybody keeps on "analysing" everything, over and over again and try to sell their altering guesses. We can all see how prices do evolve and we can all have a guess, why it is happening. Where are those people that are able (or dare) to provide serious insights into the probabilities of LT evolutions ? (A/FOA did)

Example : Any TA-analyst can see that the TA-picture of �-POG leads one to focus on �350/Oz as to be interpreted as a technically important price barrier. Who explains us the fundamental (plus context) behind this particular price ?
What does this so called, line in the sand (Oro), means and can the explanation (speculation) be proven as to be the correct one ?
What is the bigger context (if any) of this particular goldprice ? Gold has no P/E...EBIT...PEG...etc.
How is the goldprice be considered as under or over-valued in time !?

9,999 % of all analyses are nothing more than hasty, ephemeric reflexions on the momentum of the time of writing. Very typical for a paperizing society.
Gandalf the White
(06/14/2004; 16:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122084)
What does this Chart tell you ?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD:$XEU,uu[w,a]dalaynay[de][pf][i]⪯f=GIS NOW the time ?
<;-)
melda laure
(06/14/2004; 16:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122085)
National Geographic has an article "The End of Cheap Oil."
They discuss "Peak Oil", however not exactly in a to the point manner. Nowhere is King Hubbert mentioned.

However, this is the FIRST major consumer publication to print a story on the subject that I can recall. In any case, it seems that our little "Private Discussion" will not be private for very much longer. It remains to be seen how far the disinformation will go when the discussion reaches full public consciousness.
Black Blade
(06/14/2004; 17:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122086)
Market Wrap Up - Willie
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
TALES FROM THE CRACK-UP BOOM

Snippit:

For many months much has been written about the surge in price inflation in the real world. Evidence in the daily life and times of ordinary citizens, and those who run a business, testifies to not just mildly increasing prices, but a virile outbreak. Across the spectrum, from production to raw material to energy to intermediate products to food, costs are rising almost out of control. These items are not so much rising in price, as the US Dollar is declining in value. The last two months has removed some froth, but in certain areas speculative investment continues to exacerbate the effect. Austrians warn of a crack-up boom, wherein the real economy suffers from encroachment by the financial sector, and monetary debasement urges on investment in hard assets, commodities, and energy supplies. The flight from paper currency and securities has encouraged investment in things essential for industrial production, building construction, energy output, and food preparation. The trend is evident in the bull market shown in the Commodities Research Bureau chart. Corporate profit margins and household budgets are each under great strain. Cost inflation threatens businesses and families. Some label the movement underway as the Great Train Wreck. A major driving force overshadows the situation. It is historic advances made by China and their growth story.

(Black Blade) - and this part is dead on:

Back on Main Street, those who must get through the day with their families and homes, those who must operate an ongoing concern business, we see clearly through the false fa�ade of farcical fortifications in financial markets. We buy eggs and milk for our dinner table, and can see their cost rising at 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates. We buy copper and nickel for plumbing and stainless steel products, and can see their cost rising at 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates. We buy scrap paper, scrap metal, scrap cardboard, and can see their cost rising at 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates. We buy lumber and sheetrock and reinforcement rods, and can see their cost rising at far more than 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates. We heat our homes with natural gas, and fill our vehicle fuel tanks with gasoline, and can see their cost rising at 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates.

(IN BOLD TYPE) We fill our truck tanks with diesel and power our worksite generators, and can see their cost rising at 5 to 10 times what the goofy CPI indicates. One must qualify as an utter moron to accept the CPI at any number under 7%. My personal claim is simple. The CPI is three times what is publicly reported, no less. (END BOLD TYPE)

Our banking leaders and directors either wear blinders or have embarked on a deliberate course of deception. They deny a reality that hits them squarely in the face every time they leave their ivory tower enclaves and visit a real business located outside the financial sector, or head for home, or head for an event in society's maze, or head to a community outing.


Black Blade: Sorry I don't get to come to post on the forum as much, but given the boom in business (NatGas and some consulting in PM exploration for - (sorry about this) - an "unnamed client" who is well known - proprietary info ya know). To a man (and women and children), the basis of your "Wealth Pyramid" (I know I said I would expound on this but time is precious now as well), is especially important. Today we hit a new "Current Account" deficit as Government Budget Deficits soar (remember to account for "off-the-books" deficits). The Money Supply" will vastly increase and many economist (most of these clowns could not find the a@@ with both hands and access to all pertinent info IMO) predict that the Fed rate will increase to about 2% by year-end. They may be right but are usually way off the mark. I think that the rate could actually reach much higher levels after the election (unless the BLS or some other sham outfit gets involved). Remember that the PPI did not come out on time for two-three months as the BLS reconfigured their methodology (wish I had the time again to really dig into the fine print to see what hilarious "deflators" or data collection (and eschewing what they consider "anomalies"). Meanwhile the high loss in equities with high trading volumes tell me that Main Street is not that interested in stocks and bonds (especially at current prices - yep, "Pro Forma" earnings are back with a vengence), while the real booming rises occur on lower trading volumes (The President's Group on Financial Markets - aka PPT - to lure in the suckers maybe?). Well at least Gold and Silver is still undervalued and the phoney PEs and PEG ratios of most stocks are absurd and even more so when considering that we are usually seeing "Pro Forma" earnings (that is "what we would have earned if not for the "bad stuff" - like paying bills, debt, dilution, etc. - the list is almost endless. Arthur Andersen must be back or their dregs are working for other accounting firms.

Just grab your Gold and Silver while you can (you have lots of choices for your and yours needs). Give the Castle Guard a call to discuss your personal choices and needs first if you are still mulling this over in your heads. Also don't forget the basics of this bottom "Wealth Pyramid" layer as "portfolio insurance" and don't worry about the daily ups and downs. If it be an IRA outside the company pension plan - then so be it and give George Cooper (aka " Marketalk" at USAGOLD (also has the skinny on silver for the silverfish - er silverbugs = sorry about that), Jonathon Kosares and Marie (well OK a few others too will be happy to help on the small orders - good for those of limited means to build up a timed "dollar-cost averaging" strategy), and of course give Mike (aka "MK" a buzz to "talk shop", for help in those "mega-purchases", or to just say hello - hey, he can reach through the phone lines to slap you around ;-) - OK probably a bad joke here, but he is a nice guy to talk to about what you might want to do to get started). Then of course there's the "small order desk" open 24/7 - yep, even take credit cards and if you are like me you might find something that attracts your attention. For me I like the Central and South American pre-1933's for the history, rarity, and some exeptional designs - I still think the Mayan calander on the reverve of the 20 peso(?) is a true work of art). Then remember to stock up on "cheap" nonperishable foods and basic necessities as part of the base of the "Wealth Pyramid". Survival and insurance are the key to a solid foundation on the "Wealth Pyramid". Then the second level up are sound shares/units of stable-growing companies that actually pay you as an owner and there are so very few of these so be very picky and do a lot of homework - this is usually found in the "staples" paying out not fractional dividends, but trusts and partnerships paying out at least 90% of cash flow. A company that actually pays you as an owner is a "real" business while most are charlatans who consider you chumps letting them keep the cash (if indeed they actually have it), paying their execs outrageous sums while laughing at the stupid Lemmings. They are out there but remember to study and get the first layer of the "Wealth Pyramid" in place before playing the field of paper investments (in spite of the new dividend tax law capping gains out at 15% - but while most US trusts/partnerships are only allowed to depreciate using up assets (and the 15% cap status here is unclear), there are foriegn/offshore ones that even without the cap pay out and can grow. With a falling US dollar times have been very good for many and there is nothing more fun than "lapping" your cost basis with dividends. Then the upper layers of the "Wealth Pyramid" is more speculative in nature (OK, I bought ELN as pure speculation at $1.25 a share and sold out at about $22.40/share, but that is the exception than the rule and I had some info on Euroland accounting standards that helped). Nevertheless, get the basic first layer of Gold and Silver (bullion, coin, rarities - hey, make a hobby out of it and collect a certain series for example), and don't forget the fast rising cost of the basics (I envy you people close to a Costco or Sam's Club). Myself, I like the Spanish Gold and Silver coin, 24K Gold and Silver Maple Leafs and Roos as well as the Chinese-Year coin series. Too bad we can't get some of those Harmony Gold 10 tael poured bars without Customs poking their nose in and tacking on taxes. It would be nice if our host would be able to snag those without problem but they are illegal even for South Africans to own (though they can buy Krugerands).

BTW, while the Peoples Bank of China and three other Chinese banks are buying Gold (exchanging some retiring US debt) and the broading of retail outlets to the Chinese people. Another good move is that the Chinese are ready to remove the 5% VAT on Gold according to some recent reports. When that stumbling block is removed and all Chinese have access to Gold and Silver without having to travel afar, then look out. There is also talk of a US based committee to lobby the US Government to restrict sales of US copper to China as they are buying copper to meet the needs of the boom in manufacturing, raising prices for US manufacturers. Unfortunately some good copper producers like PD, RTP, etc. would be slapped in the face again if such a move occurs. nevertheless, the Chileans and others are selling as are other S. American and Mexican producers (ie. Grupo Penoles). In the meantime as siaring inflation (hidden behind phoney baloney US stats) grows, Gold and Silver are excellent choices for "portfolio insurance" (NatGas and Oil are just to damn difficult to store for the average investor). Anyway, just give the "boyz and girlz" at the USAGOLD castle a call and check out some of the other products as well (a Gold Dubloon would be a nice a addition to my collection - check in the USAGOLD jewelry section of all places. Pricey but a piece of history - maybe even held at one time by Mayan, Inca, or Aztec nobility). In the end, it really comes down to preparation and looking out for yourself (number one) and your own.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym - "healthy body and healthy mind" - in my case just maintaining sanity in an insane world. A good cold Negra Modelo or Fat Tire could hurt either afterward. ;-)


- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/14/2004; 17:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122087)
Re: melda laure - National Geographic Article on "The End of Cheap Oil"

I have not yet read it but when it comes in at the gym I intend to. Too bad many don't give MK Hubbert the credit he deserves. The cost of energy is rising and there will be temporary drops but based on erronous biases and "hope and hype". I see that the CNBC stock infomercial channel is really taking notice of late. This summer is expected to be warmer than usual (part of the 11 year "coronal mass ejection" cycle an oblique orbit of the earth coming closer to the sun during this period IMO - not to mention the increased use of NatGas "peaker" plants that will put pressure on prices as we run faster on the treadmill drilling mature fields while being denied high impact target areas in the US - including nonconventional methane sources).

Yes, "Cheap Oil" is over as even the ME has "peaked" (they are running flat out with quota cheating and the major Saudi Field - the "Super Giant" Ghawar Field being infiltrated by higher rates of brine contamination along with higher "lifting costs" and an increased oil supply will not alieve the decline in antiquated US refineries and the ability to keep up with new enviro regs requiring US refineries to close down or raise refining costs where profit margins are already "razor thin". A Saudi source said that they may try to build an increase of 6% refining capacity in the US (not likely due to government regs and the high associated liability costs). Then we have not only NIMBY but lack of pipeline capacity, drilling permits, opposition to drilling on public lands and an energy grid built mostly in the 1930's (with lots of power outages not often mentioned in the media - especially in the US Southeast in winter and spring during "ice storms"). There is intense opposition to Liquified NatGas (LNG) offloading terminals (especially near large coastal communities - and the US coasts are crowded with cities and towns), so reaching a 10% LNG supply from specialized infrastructure and a limited high-tech LNG tanker fleet already committed to foreign users (the largest being Japan despite the large number of nuke reactors). It may be a "junk science" article (knowing the National Geographic) or perhaps have actual info and some pertinent info on the subject worth pondering.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/14/2004; 17:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 122088)
US trade deficit hits fresh high
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3805685.stm
Snippit:

Americans are buying a lot of foreign goods
The US trade deficit grew 3.8% to hit a fresh record of $48.3bn (�26.6bn) in April, the Commerce Department said.
The trade gap widened because of high oil prices and the recovering US economy's appetite for imported goods. Imports rose 0.2% in April to $142.3bn, while exports failed to live up to expectations, sinking 1.5% to $93.9bn.

The trade deficit took economists by surprise as many had expected it to shrink slightly after hitting a record in March. They had expected growth in the world economy to lead to more export sales for US firms. The consensus among economists was for April's trade gap to shrink to just under $46bn, according to a Reuters poll.

(Black Blade) - and this:

A separate survey from the Commerce Department helped dispel any concerns that US consumers were not venturing to the shops. According to the figures, retail sales increased by 1.3% in May, yet another sign that the US economic recovery is continuing. The car industry was the best performing retail sector, with sales rising 2.7% in May, compared with April's 2.1% decline. "Consumers are shopping aggressively," said Economy.Com's Mr Zandi. "And the economy will keep barrelling along."


Black Blade: More bad news - last month's high Trade Gap was revised higher as is the norm. The higher buying (increased retail) looks like pre-war Germany as consumers spend to buy hard assets before the USD drops more and hold something of "value" before TSHTF. Not unprecedented for sure. As jobs are supposedly increasing (lotsa burger flippers and Wal-Mart greeters out there), wages are not keeping up for the average American worker as real inflation flies along at a nearly annual 12%. (The BLS loves to tell us that after hedonic deflation, imputed income, seasonality, etc. the rate of inflation is much lower - never mind that they discount the cost of "staples"). Get prepared - buy nonperishables in bulk at lower prices and get that all important "portfolio insurance" at current "cheap" prices. I used to consider Gold "cheap" at prices below $320/oz. Well folks, those days could be over - I look at anything $450/oz. as "cheap" now when I factor in "real" inflation and the "real" price for Gold should be closer $650/oz and Silver anywhere from from $24 to $50/oz (maybe much more). depending on which set of supply figures you look at. Collectables (numismatics and coin) have been climbing rapidly and more so than bullion in recent years (since 2000). Watch out as it will get very ugly - especially should the "energy crisis" intensify because these prices must be passed along to the consumer as most companies have little if any pricing power.

- Black Blade

Now I had better get to the gym - I am gaining a little weight (actually mass) as I am working instead of working out. Some in muscle mass but the beer carbs don't help. ;-)
Cavan Man
(06/14/2004; 20:46:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122089)
Chinese quid pro quo....
China re-values the Yuan--adjust the peg to USD. Bush looks like a genius/hero and China pays less for commodities denominated in USD. Bush gets a boost before the Florida effect post election poll closing. The game plays out a little longer. Gold is like real estate; "they don't make any more dirt". Buy it for the long run. Buy juniors for the short run in the BEST neighborhood
Gandalf the White
(06/14/2004; 21:11:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122090)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
WOWSERS Sir Black Blade -- Thanks for the "PROMO" !
(You type far faster than me.)

YES ALL -- Those were the CONTEST trumpets sounding again !

====

A call to contest! A call to contest!

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst, when it prints:

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this
time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

---

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the TableRound knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

---

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.

First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the "Essay Contest", please indicate the essay entry in the message subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

(Surrounded by stars)

AND, YES --- a Second Contest segment , a gold price guessing contest and STATEMENT !!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the August COMEX (paper) contract (GC4Q) SETTLEMENT on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in "Dollars and Tenths of a Dollar', and posted by 12:00 Midnight (MDT) in the Rocky Mountains, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your "POG Contest" entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be
accompanied by a brief statement on "WHY" you think gold is going to go where you
think it is going.
=====

Prizes are as follows:

For the "Essay Contest":

First prize: A "collector's" USA $10 gold Liberty in uncirculated grade, (0.48375 oz. net fine gold)

Second prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 net fine gold ozs)

Third prize: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===

For the GOLD price guessing contest:

First prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===

Good luck to all.........
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/14/2004; 21:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122091)
This CHART may give you some thoughts for use in the POG Contest ! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID667551&cmd=show[s22607326]&disp=PGood LUCK !!
Gandalf the White
(06/14/2004; 21:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122092)
THANKS !, Sir Melda Laure for the EARLY "PROMO" !!!!!!
melda laure (6/14/04; 16:53:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 122085)
National Geographic has an article "The End of Cheap Oil."
They discuss "Peak Oil", however not exactly in a to the point manner. Nowhere is King Hubbert mentioned.
===
Can you now see Henny Penny running in circles ?
<;-)
mikal
(06/14/2004; 21:43:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122093)
Re Gold, yuan and oil etc
The way I see it gold was always undervalued when it was tied to the dollar in a "standard" and ever since then
as well. Accumulating gold with the "giants" doesn't phase me and few predicted we'd still have this access.
If the yuan goes up in a newly established "range", the Chinese wold be honoring their promise- not to permit the yuan to soar. But the psychological effect of a possible mere token increase in the yuan will help POG. It's not like it needs it though. It's fair price is not BB's 650 or so. You'll see how it goes. If you wish to add a buffer of "one year and she'll go up", year after year after year, you're not going to have what it takes to ride the bull or
last the duration which may outlast your children even.
With oil it's the same deal as for the yuan as far as I'm concerned- a relative non-event. Gold's fundamentals will certainly improve a bit if oil continues to rise, but POG now hasn't a hard and fast rule or relationship at all with individual markets, let alone individual currencies(yuan) or commodities(oil), especially with the comparative infancy of those factors vs venerable GOLD.
In the past one could use certain relationships and trends in markets like bonds and currencies to discern POG and timing. BIG markets these... yes indeed big players and big investors too!
But now the whole market for gold or the world economic Gestalt, is greater than the sum of it's parts.
Where all the elements of an economic crisis- "perfect storm" as well as gold bull market, are in place.
Many living today and our legends of past, knew this
years, centuries ago whenever gold was repudiated,
whenever banks were commandeered to serve oligarchists,
whenever foreign, lawless raiders and treasonous collaborators insinuated fiat into people's lives.
Gandalf the White
(06/14/2004; 23:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 122094)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ----- Addendum to Essay Contest !
The "Essay" titled **** The End of Cheap Oil **** shoould be fifty or more words in length and the DEADLINE for entry is HIGH NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.
Thanks and GOOD LUCK !!
---
NOTE to all LURKERS --- Get your free password and enter these two segments of the CONTEST to win FREE GOLD !
<;-)
Liberty Head
(06/15/2004; 01:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122095)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

Oil is a true commodity and dollars are not, so the cost of oil has no meaningful measure in dollars.
Oil will demand like for like, that is one commodity in exchange for another.
The most precious commodity of all, our blood and our children's blood, will increasingly factor into the price of oil.
Globally, freedoms will continue to erode, tyranny will continue to expand and economies will take on more debt.
The global nature of this predicament means there is nowhere hide.
So, if our response choices are limited to flight, fight and fraud, flight is no longer viable.
This leaves us with much more fighting and lying in the days ahead.
Ones survival will depend on fighting smart and discerning the truth from the lies.
This is where gold starts to shine. Gold is the truth. Paper is the lie.
Be smart, stay out of debt and get gold.

Best Wishes
melda laure
(06/15/2004; 01:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122096)
Inflation, deflation, destruction, denoument.
Pinch me! Am I dreaming?

Sir GAB, the airwaves are quiet in more places than this. This weekend I worked the VHF contest from a hilltop 3300 feet overlooking the pacific. Several contesters made comment to the effect that the mood of the participants was "subdued", and as the stars came out and the noise faded and I and the crickets kept vigil over the comming dawn, almost, for an instant I imagined it was a different age. That's the only reason I used to read Geographic; just to see old places I haven't seen since long ago. I read it for splits and giggles too, especially when it comes to the history of these lands. Yes: all their facts are correct, but which, if any, are relevant? Indeed! Is that not why you and I are in attendance at this council?

Gold.

Gold is real. Credit is imaginary. Any electronic wizard can imagine the consequence of an imaginary quantity. Cycles, change, issuance, inflation, contraction. Yet the real wealth, (such as it is) remains the same. Inflation, deflation, they are irrelevant. Long ago, on the day when Numenore sank beneath the sea's tumult, all numenorean real estate became a "malinvestment". On the day that oil becomes "unaffordable" so too will all those four wheeled chariots of fire become "malinvestments". We hope, of course, that the "day" is several decades long so that the market shall have time to adjust.

It is a foolish hope.

In some aspect, the lack of investment in oil infrastructure is perhaps not a result of low prices but perhaps is a recognition that there is no future in that area. But how should I know? These are not matters which are my area of study. Sir Black blade, my body is too old, regardless, and my mind prone to wander, whether awake or dreaming. Sunday afternoon I reviewed a translation of some old legends of mexico. Not all the old tales are forgotten! Nor has the world changed over much, even if it is prone to great tumult. Sir GAB, I went to see the movie you spoke of, (the dialog could have been better; like Eustace, all the children had read the wrong books). When most of north america was turned into an ice-cube was that deflation or inflation?

See what empty nonsense it is!

But whether it is propane tanks or swords, we may purchase them to speculate (on the ebb and flow of the tides of credit) we may invest (planting the wealth to bear fruit tommorrow) or we may act with our limited resources to survive. The buyer of propane or sword may intend any of the three: speculation, investment, survival. He may even be a fool. But there are no fools here I deem, only those humble enough to seek to clear their heads of the fog that gathers outside.

But beware the ebb and flow of the tides of credit. For the ignorant they tell great lies. There is a time to pick crabs stranded in pools. And fish, sir Smeagol! Even in the dark! A time to surf the waves, a time to pipe away. And there is a time to follow the example of Isildur and Utanapishtim:

All the gold I had, I put on board,
All the silver I had, I loaded on board.
All seedcakes and pipeweed I had, I loaded on board.

(that's the Samwise translation of Gilgamesh)

Prepare for the worst, Sir Mithrandir? Unanapishtim was shown grace for his worthy deeds. Honestly sir, have any of our leaders done anything recently of such merit? To that question, I could not be expected to know the answer, their own council they will keep until the day.

misetich
(06/15/2004; 05:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122097)
U.S. Trade Deficit Set Another Record in April
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41819-2004Jun14.htmlSnip:

Not a month has gone by this year in which the U.S. trade deficit has failed to hit a new record -- and a government report issued yesterday provided no exception, showing a $48.3 billion trade gap for April
The Commerce Department report surprised many economists who had been expecting the deficit in goods and services to narrow from the record posted in March, which the department revised upward to $46.6 billion. Other revised figures showed that each of the three previous months were also records that have now been surpassed.
..................
"This highlights the fact that it's going to take a lot more than a 10 percent broad, trade-weighted decline in the dollar to get the trade deficit to right itself," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com, referring to the fall in the greenback since its peak in February 2002. "It's a pretty ugly number."
******************
Misetich

ANOTHER upward record. Exports to China dwindled by 19% - and upward imports of consumer goods and automobiles

It is interesting to note the a particular pattern on the movement of foreign exchanges each time a "negative report" such as the trade deficit is announced.
The US $ moved upward for the last few trade sessions prior to the announcement.

The upward move smacks of alleged interventionism in light of deterioting fundamentals.

Some may interpret this "alleged successful intervention" as the power of central bankers and treasuries worldwide.

To others it represents Custer last stand before a US $ rout as the foundations crumble from within and without.

As Marki Zanardi points out the US $ is significantly overvalued -

Japan's economy is growing faster than the US as is China's and the rest of Asia, thus there's no economic justification for the current currencies imbalances

The longer these imbalances are kept up, the more deteriorating the job picture becomes in the US as cheaper imports, due to currency factors, continue hammering industry sectors

This imbalances are not sustainable, and as Sir Greenspan aptly points out, there's no free lunch.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 05:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122098)
Inflation Concern Grows As Economy Recovers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41818-2004Jun14.htmlSnip:

Higher prices for gasoline, lumber and food helped boost the value of U.S. retail sales last month, adding to concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates rapidly to control inflation, analysts said yesterday
........................
Retail sales rose 1.2 percent in May, reflecting consumers' willingness to spend more for a wide variety of goods, the Commerce Department reported
....................
More than half the increase in the retail sales figures probably resulted from consumers paying higher prices for goods, rather than from them buying more goods, according to Stone's analysis of the sales figures. The value of sales at gasoline stations alone rose 4 percent, accounting for about one-fourth of the total increase, he said.
............................
*****************
Misetich

"the retail sales figures probably resulted from consumers paying higher prices for goods, rather than from them buying more goods"

Price inflation follows monetary inflation - and there's plenty of "fuel" in the price inflation pipeline

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 06:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122099)
IMF urges new policy as oil prices rise
http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT1086940210071.htmlSnip:

Rodrigo Rato, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, called on Monday for a new energy initiative to help counter the surge in the price of crude oil.

He said that the climb in the price of oil was largely the result of strong demand and the world needed "energy policies over the medium to long term to compensate for the rise".

In spite of the surge, he said the IMF was more likely to raise its 4.6 per cent forecast for world economic growth than to cut it.
.....................
"Right now, even taking into account that we are revising upwards our forecasts for the average oil price for the year by about $5, we do not see risks of cutting the world growth target that we set in the spring." An upward revision looked more likely, he added.

In April the IMF raised its prediction for world economic growth from 4.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent and will be revising its estimate in the autumn.
..........................
The lopsided nature of the global economy was emphasised on Monday by a further widening of the US trade deficit to a record $48.3bn (?40.1bn, �26.5bn) in April. The IMF has long been warning that imbalances in global demand represent a threat to growth in the long run.

Mr Rato added that he expected to see a moderation of Chinese economic growth in the coming months, a trend that many economists fear will further widen the US trade imbalance
***************************
Misetich

IMF estimates of oil prices were never in the ballpark, and their "lowballing" of oil prices going forward is also way off the mark.

China's "slowdown" is not reflected in their oil consumption needs - to the contrary - China's oil imports are rising -

US economic growth is already slowing down - as second quarter growth will range in the 3.5- 4% utilizing hedonics measurements - which implies "normalized" growth ex-inflation, ex-hedonic to be at a standstill

Continues higher energy prices are here to stay led by the unsatiable demand from the Orient.

The effects/impacts of The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe are being underestimated by the IMF - as price inflation imbeds itself in commodities and transportation, manufacturing worldwide

Central bankers are fighting ASSET DEFLATION and are winning the battle as world SM have "recovered" and housing bubbles have developed, and losing the war as economic and geo-political events unfold going forward

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 06:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122100)
Lying in Wait? - Doug Noland
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.aspSnip:

Commodities Watch:



June 8 � Bloomberg (Sri Jegarajah): "Asia, which consumes almost a third of the world's oil, may boost imports for emergency reserves after prices surged to a record on concern terrorist attacks may disrupt supply from the Middle East� An Asian emergency oil reserve, with a capacity of half a billion barrels, would require about $15 billion in investment alone to fill it with crude oil priced at $30 a barrel, said Damien Criddle, a lawyer at Baker & McKenzie in Hong Kong, who specializes in oil and gas. �It's a major capital undertaking,� he said. Japan, China and South Korea may help fund the reserve because �it's in their interest to see their neighbors stable.�"



June 10 � Bloomberg (Janet Ong): "Shanghai, China's biggest commercial city, will raise coal inventories at power plants to at least 10 days to minimize the blackouts that interrupted production at 4,000 companies last year� Coal shortages forced some of the nation's power plants to shut and left others with inventories for only one more day� China's coal stockpiles fell to�a 20-year low, at end-April� Shanghai's power demand may rise as much as 15 percent during the peak period from June 15 until Sept. 17 compared with a year ago� In April, the city government said it plans to invest more than 100 billion yuan ($12 billion) by 2010 to double electricity-generating capacity� Asian coal prices this month rose to a record because of soaring demand in China, South Korea and Taiwan."
............................
During the decade of the nineties, Household debt expanded, on average, $307 billion annually. We now surpass that amount in less than 4 months. Annual Household borrowings surpassed $400 billion for the first time during 1998.
........................
Foreign sources accumulated U.S. financial assets at a stunning pace during the quarter, expanding a record $423 billion (not annualized!) to $8.43 Trillion (a 21% growth rate). To put this number into perspective, Rest of World (ROW) Financial Assets expanded $628 billion (8.5%) during 2003, $396 billion (5.7%) during 2002, $389 billion (5.9%) during 2001, and $771 billion (13.2%) during the investment and speculation boom of 2000. Over six years, ROW holdings have ballooned 73%. And consistent with Bubble Dynamics, these holdings are now "Going Parabolic."

To make things even more interesting, foreign borrowings in the U.S. have been declining. ROW Liabilities dropped $159 billion during the quarter, or 19% annualized, to $3.255 Trillion. Institutions have likely seen the weak dollar as a good opportunity to reduce dollar liabilities. In fact, since the first quarter of 2003 ROW has reduced U.S. Liabilities by $686 billion, or 17%. And while the paydown of dollar denominated debt has lent support to our currency over the past year, our foreign Creditors� net long position in U.S. instruments has skyrocketed (not a development one would expect to mark a bear market bottom).
.......................

Bloomberg's Alex Tanzi has put together a useful schedule of "international reserve assets, excluding holdings of gold, by country." The data captures the global explosion of largely dollar balances noted above. Over the past year, Worldwide central bank reserves have surged 27% to $3.249 Trillion. Of the stunning $692 billion increase, $545 billion (79%) has been accumulated by the six largest Asian Central Banks. Japan's reserves have surged $273.4 billion, or 52%, to $797.2 billion. China's reserve position is up $123.8 billion, or 39%, to $439.8 billion. Taiwan's reserves are up $53.8 billion, or 31%, to $229 billion. Hong Kong's are up $4.0 billion to $120.1 billion, while India's reserves are up $36.9 billion, or 48%, to $114.33 billion. Singapore reserves are up $15.33 billion, or 18%, y-o-y to $101.1 billion.

If we assume that foreign central bank dollar reserves have increased in the neighborhood of $650 billion over the past year, then (from the Z.1) the increase in "Official" holdings of Treasuries and Agencies of about $400 billion leaves $250 billion unexplained. And there is the intriguing $366.5 billion increase (to $528bn) in RPs acquired by the Rest of World over the past year. Could it be that foreign central banks are now aggressively accumulating repo positions - financing the U.S. securities repurchase agreement market?
................
Well, I have no idea if foreign central banks are becoming major player in the repo market, or whether or not the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is lending securities from its massive $1.22 Trillion portfolio of Treasuries and Agencies held in "custody" for foreign central banks and financial institutions. But we do know, from the New York Fed, that the size of Primary Dealer repurchase agreements has recently increased to a record $2.87 Trillion, up $461 billion (19%) from one year ago.
......................
Chairman Greenspan Tuesday began talking a little tougher to the markets: "�the FOMC is prepared to do what is required to fulfill our obligations to achieve the maintenance of price stability�" depending on how "economic and financial forces" evolve. He also went out of his way to pronounce his belief that much of mortgage-related hedging has already been accomplished and that balance sheet adjustments and the unwind of the "carry trade" are well underway. Are these assertions credible or are we likely witnessing more Greenspan machinations?

With outstanding repo positions approaching $3 Trillion, with bank balance sheets ballooning, and with the ongoing massive GSE asset/liability mismatch and unknown speculative leveraging, it is wishful thinking at best that the system has done anything other than scratch the surface of adjusting to a rising rate environment. Then, what else could Mr. Greenspan have in mind?
****************
Misetich

Doug Noland has surpassed himself in this week's edition of the credit bulletin - plenty of "golden nuggets" - A must read indeed!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 07:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122101)
Consumer Prices Surge in May
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=SW42XCX2N32RSCRBAEKSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=5425855Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices surged last month, the government said on Tuesday in a report likely to cement market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates at the end of the month.
The consumer price index, the most widely used gauge of U.S. inflation, rose 0.6 percent in May, the Labor Department said. That was the largest one-month gain since January 2001 and well above market expectations for a 0.4 percent advance
.......................
Energy prices fueled much of May's price increases, rising 4.6 percent from April, as gasoline prices jumped 8.1 percent. Household fuel costs also rose, with fuel oil up 3.5 percent, natural gas up 1.2 percent and electricity 1.1 percent higher.

Shelter costs, which had advanced sharply in March and April, moderated to a 0.2 percent increase in May.

In a separate report, the department said real average weekly earnings fell 0.4 percent in May after edging 0.1 percent higher in April. Earnings were down 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
**************
Misetich

Nowhere to hide. The "massaged" numbers represent half the tale of Real price inflation - the "shelter costs" decline is a joke in view of rising house prices countrywide

The year over year increase of 1.7% core inflation reported is an insult to anybody's intelligence - as prices in health costs, property taxes, services, housing, are in the double digit category

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 07:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122102)
Reality Check: U.S. Logistics Executives See Q2 Uptick Jun 14 / 14:10 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. logistics providers at the center of the supply chain are seeing an "across the board" pickup in activity among retailers, manufacturers and distributors -- fueled by economic expansion, cheap money and a massive import tide.

Warehouses are more full than they were a year ago, with customers motivated by the desire to increase inventories before interest rates go higher -- and where a dollar coming off its lows could further generate demand for imported consumer goods.
............................
Also, while logistics providers are able to institute modest increases in fees, their margins are being crimped by higher costs for health insurance, fuel, leasing, and trucking services.
.......................
Nevertheless, Greve is already dealing with the consequences of inflation. His business costs are up, squeezing margins. "We are seeing the cost of leasing warehouses creeping up a bit." High construction
costs are reducing the amount of "spec" warehouse space needed to stabilize that market, while "fuel is our fastest growing non-controllable expense outside of health care, which clearly maintains the lead," he said.

"We have to fight very hard to cover our increasing costs. We're fighting tooth and nail to get increases to cover the costs of fuel and transportation alone. It's not like our customers pay a kicker on top of everything just because we do a good job," Greve said.
.......................
Beavers plans to expand in the next year or so, and would have done so sooner but for the high cost for practically all building materials needed to construct a warehouse, including steel, plywood and cement.
"My contractor said it's a roller coaster, and every so many years it will go up in price like it's doing now. I'm hoping it's peaking and that, in the next few months, prices will come down. Right now it's too expensive to build."
.....................
"Offshoring is great for logistics providers because customers have to buy three months' worth of goods as
opposed to just-in-time orders,"
**************
Misetich

Anectodal reports from the "trenches" offer a birds eye view of economic reality.

Price inflation is hitting operations and bottom lines. Construction costs are skyrocketing. Inventories are rising on "expations" of higher business levels.

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe in being underestimated as it is not a a tempororay phenemena - and its impacts will demontrate itself as events unfold

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 07:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122103)
The Fed's monetary policy dilemma
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/41068.htmlSnip:

US corporate insiders are selling off their shares as the equity market rebounds. Dr. Faber sees this as a sell indicator for all investors, and reflects on what Mr. Greenspan will do next.
..................
Then, we had after February/March of this year all asset classes � except for real estate � declining in price and, now, since mid May, we have all asset classes including stocks, real estate and commodities, but excluding bonds and the US dollar, moving up in price again - this largely as a result of a massive monetary expansion engineered by Mr. Greenspan.

I am mentioning this because it is for the American Federal Reserve possible to increase the money supply exponentially (in the last four weeks at an annual rate of more than 20%) and keep US interest rates significantly below the rate of inflation. But by 'printing' too much money the Fed pushes also the US dollar down and creates eventually higher inflation rates, which will one day in future also drive interest rates much higher.
..........................
Therefore, Mr. Greenspan has come to a dead end street with his monetary policy. Despite ultra easy monetary policies the bond market has tumbled since March of this year with the result that the housing refinancing index has also collapsed to the lowest level since May 2002.

This by itself may have some negative implications for US consumption in the next few months, as refinancing activity allowed homeowners to withdraw equity from their homes, which was then largely spent on consumer goods and equity purchases. In fact, it will be interesting to see whether the recent strong employment gains (at least statistically and superficially interpreted) will be able to offset lower home equity withdrawals by homeowners.

My opinion is that this is unlikely to be the case, and that consumption will slow down in the next few months � also because financial market investors have failed so far this year to make any money and are already likely to sit on some losses, as they positioned themselves in asset inflation plays such as copper, steel, shipping and housing stocks, all of which are already down from their March highs by 30% or more.

Now, Mr. Greenspan has two options. Either he does pursue his policy of keeping short-term interest rates artificially low, or increases them in baby steps of just 0.25% increments and at a slow pace, or he takes some more drastic tightening moves action and increases short-term rates in 0.50% increments right away.

In the first case, the bond market will continue to drift lower, as inflation will suddenly accelerate meaningfully and in the process also drive down the dollar.

Alternatively, he drives interest rates up significantly, but then stocks, and home prices will ease and have a negative impact on consumption, while bond prices and the dollar should be in a position to rebound. In short, I am mentioning this because unlike what we experienced in 2003, when all asset classes including stocks, commodities, real estate and bonds rose in concert, we are beginning to see, in 2004, diverging performances of asset markets.

Either bonds and the dollar will continue to tank while stocks, commodities and hard assets perform better � at least relatively - or the US dollar and bonds will hold and even strengthen temporary, while stocks and commodities perform relatively poorly.
....................
My bet is that the Fed will move up interest rates very slowly for fear to deflate the various bubbles it itself created and encouraged with its ultra easy monetary policy.
....................
Lastly, one group of people, who is usually relatively well informed � the corporate insiders � have turned decisively less optimistic. In the first four months of this year, US insiders have sold $14 billion worth of stocks compared to just $4 billion in the comparable period in 2003.

According to a study this is the highest insider selling on record since 1971 when these insider sales statistics began to be compiled.
***************
Misetich

Dr. Gloom, Marc Faber has been right on the mark for the last several years predicting a commodity bull market, primarily due to China's emergence.

Faber has a dim view of share prices around the world and he sees current rebound in share prices around the world as a selling opportunity, following corporate insiders record setting unloading

Central bankers worldwide are challenged in fighting Asset Deflation thus its highly likely they will stand behind the curve - limiting their IR increases and relying on their prowes of "timely interventions" and jawboning to curb "inflation expectations"

The markets have other ideas.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Flaccus
(06/15/2004; 08:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122104)
Misetich, On Economic Liberals
My e-mail box this morning contains a dispatch from CBS Marketwatch which points up the media's attempt to wash the economic figures for public consumption. This e-mail is headlined "May core CPI rises 0.2% in line with Street." Note the presence of the zero in front of the decimal so that no one can mistake it for 1.2% or 2.2% which, as you rightly point out, might be closer to reality than the economic fantasy CBS Marketwatch likes to support. The Reuters report you posted shows an inflation rate of .6% and that is the number gold is reacting to this morning.

What we must keep in mind is that just as there are "political" liberals and conservatives, there are also "economic" liberals and conservatives. "Economic" liberals dominate Wall Street and the financial press just as "political liberals" dominate the nation's universities, think tanks and standard press. They work together, lunch together, drink together, live together -- always reinforcing their own thinking and furthering their careers. Wall Street, our primary focal point here (where financial matters are discussed), talks the talk of financial conservatism and money but they do not walk the walk. That is how you can have someone from Goldman Sachs, for example, disdain furiously holding gold as bulwark against currency depreciation, and Bill Clinton shows up for a speech at Wall Street's Morgan Stanley less than 30 days after leaving the White House, even though these corporate institutions are supposed to understand how money works and sustains value. That visit, it should be pointed out, was greeted with an avalanche of displeasure from Morgan Stanley's clientele, according to press reports at the time -- a lasting testament to the widening rift between Wall Street and Main Street. It also points up how a representative from Main Street like former Treasury Secretary O'Neill has so much trouble with the Wall Street crowd. In short, he is not one of them.

Many times I have read posts here from gold owners and advocates asking why the financial establishment is so anti-gold. I have also seen many articles complaining of the same and attempting to answer gold's financial establishment critics.

The short answer to the question "Why is the financial establishment so anti-gold?" is this:

They are anti-gold because they are "economic" liberals.

More: They are different from you and me. They have a different set of beliefs. They believe in big government. They do not believe in a government no bigger than it needs to be. They do not really believe in individualism. They believe in big corporations operated on an essentially socialist model where the committee dominates the individual. They do not believe in the rule of law. They believe in their own rules.

I see reports this morning of a culture of fear at Haliburton, for example, where the wasting of government contract money in Iraq has run to epic proportions. Government trucks have been abandoned simply because they got a flat tire according to press reports. The individuals complaining of the waste are being threatened with their jobs. . . . .by the "company." The culture of fear does not surprise me. Stalin operated under the same veil. "Economic" liberals do not like the Bill Gates' of the world. Independent thinkers are dangerous. They are a threat, and they need to be brought into line.

We must remember this when we are confronted by "economic" liberalism, just as we have to come to realize that we must acknowledge the source when confronted with "political" liberalism. These thoughts gather in my mind during the week in which we laid to rest the gallant Ronald Reagan -- the man who made us all aware of the true nature of "political" liberalism (a message now forgotten in the flood of media wash since his exit from the public scene). One wonders, if he were alive and vigorous today in the Age of Money, would he have turned his attention to the "economic" liberals?

When you see CBS Marketwatch plug the lower inflation number, or when you see any one of the wire services disparage gold, consider the source. Just because someone reports on financial matters or handles other people's money does not necessarily, in this day and age, mean that they think like you or I (even though in some cases we assume that they do).

The mind set from which the "economic" liberal operates is just as self-serving and philosophically flawed as that of the "political" liberal. And this is the thought we must keep in mind when we see the press reports that don't seem to square with reality. These people have no intention of presenting the financial news objectively. They only have their own political agenda in mind -- incestuous and self-serving as it is. And that is why the gulf between Wall Street and Main Street will only widen in the years to come. The public already understands what is really brewing in the world's financial centers and has come to a clearer understanding of the real origins of the Enron fiasco. As Rush Limbaugh has said time and time again in many different ways (and I'm summarizing here): These people (political liberals) don't really care about you, they only want you to think that they care about you. They care more about their own careers.

Having led you here, need I point out that you can say the same thing about "economic" liberals.
misetich
(06/15/2004; 09:25:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122105)
John Dizard: Hard truth of China's soft landing
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1086940159263&p=1012571727169Snip:

There's been a debate about whether China will be successful in gradually slowing its economy down to a "soft landing". Over the past couple of weeks a consensus opinion has emerged that a combination of administrative measures and market forces is working effectively to achieve that happy ending.


Consensus opinion is dead wrong.

Not only will there not be a soft landing in the future, but a hard landing is already here. This has been an investment boom such as the world hasn't had since the early years of the forced-march Soviet industrialisation, reaching near half of gross domestic product. The figures just out show a decline in the year-over-year increases since February but, more significantly, a very rapid decline in the month
......................
"China also had a trade surplus in May, another indicator that investment is falling off. This is really going to hit Japan, which has been helped by exports to China, but the Koreans and the Thais will be even harder hit."
................
It takes a while to sort through Alan Greenspan's speeches and testimony to find out what wasn't said, and his statements in the week are full of half-revealed truths. For example, he told us that "an unwinding of the carry trade is notably under way".

In other words, people in the market have put on short positions in the equivalents of the 10-year Treasury bond, so the potential systemic risk from a rise in rates isn't there any more.

Wait a moment. Risk does not just disappear when market operators hedge their positions. Who's being saved here, and who's being fitted with a concrete parachute?

Apparently Chairman Greenspan was talking about the hedging programs of the 22 primary dealers such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and the dealing arms of Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, Banc of America Securities and so on. Those firms are the instruments through which the Fed executes its monetary policy. In the collective mind of the Fed, they feel pain more acutely than the rest of us, and need succor and support if they are to perform their natural role.

So who are the chumps? Who's been buying the bonds, the duration that the primary dealers haven't been buying?

Let's see . . . who would be the dumbest, most self-destructive people at the card table? How about the foreign central banks?
****************
Misetich

Mr. Dizard says the China's "hard landing" is already here -He's entitle to be wrong......as the chinese economy is poised to grow at the "slowed pace" of 8-9% range going forward

The interesting snip from Mr. Dizards column is the golden nugget ......

"Who's being saved here, and who's being fitted with a concrete parachute?"

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/15/2004; 09:38:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122106)
Iraq Pipeline Explosions Cut Oil Exports
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040615_783.htmlSnip:

BAGHDAD, Iraq June 15, 2004 � Explosions ripped through two pipelines Tuesday in southern Iraq, cutting oil exports from the south by half, the Iraqi South Oil Co. said. Officials blamed Saddam Hussein loyalists and al-Qaida for the attacks.
Firefighters were able to control the fire that broke out on pipelines in the Hamdan area just north of Faw, but the damage was so extensive that pumphing had to be halted, said South Oil official Samir Jassim.
................
The first explosion early Tuesday set the pipeline on fire and was followed later by another blast. The two pipelines export crude oil from a pumping station called Zubeir 1 to a crude oil depot in Faw, 40 miles southeast of Basra.

The blasts cut exports from the south by one half, Jassim said.
......................
******************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues....as supply disruptions in Iraq are materializing

Those that envisioned a large supply of Iraqi oil to offset higher oil prices are suffering from delusions

Iraq's resistance (some call it uprising) continues - and will increase in upcoming months rather decrease with the infrastrure being the main target

The oil card is being played out - though "smoke and mirrors" provides a cover

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Great Albino Bat
(06/15/2004; 10:26:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122107)
Good posts, melda laure and Liberty Head!!

Those early posts were very good; a good post sets one to thinking, to meditating, to philosophizing.

What a strange world we live in! No need to travel in our imaginations to worlds on remote planets, to find adventures in bizarre civilizations. This world of ours, here and now, is plenty bizarre.

"Alice in Wonderland" and "Through the Looking Glass" come to mind. Everything so strange there - and yet our reality is still stranger.

A world of 6.4 billion humans that uses imaginary money. Yes, melda laure, precisely that word "imaginary" has been in my mind since yesterday. (And I find you use it.) What could be odder than to find a planet where 6.4 billion humans use imaginary money to transact business? Very strange, indeed.

Liberty Head: things must be traded for things! Yes! What possible relationship can there exist between what is imaginary and what is real? How translate into a number, the relation between a something, and a dream? Thus, prices are irrelevant. The creator of the imaginary money, the dollar, becomes virtual owner of everything that is for sale, since he the creator of the dollar, can create any amount and thus purchase, anything and everything he wants, in exchange for - imaginary money. Very odd, very odd indeed!

The GAB knows of certain things that are going on, that will be news later on. Do not despair. There are noble and thinking minds at work. Good men have not entirely vanished from the earth. Stand firm on your principles.

The GAB
Aristotle
(06/15/2004; 11:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122108)
Belgian, can you spare a moment?
After I'd barely grazed the subject last month in conjunction with an article I'd read at Asia Times, at Randy's impetus I found myself sitting down with my very own copy of Hernando's little treatise on property rights and unravelling the mystery of capital. Lemme just say, Wowzers!!! I've got abouyt 50 pages left to finish, and I already feel like I'm walking around with a brand new brain -- like something borrowed from somebody much smarter I'd ever hoped to be. On one level it reinforced some of my preexisting notions, and in connecting some dots for me that I'd never before bothered trying to connect, it gave me a whole new exciting(!!!!!) set of tools to use when thinking about the broader scope of our FreeGold issues.

Anyways, for that rarest of invigorations I now have a huge *huge* debt of gratitude to pay that probably goes beyond anything I can do with my one-track postings, so I was hoping to repay the well-guided insights with an equally insightful book. The problem is I'm coming up short in finding anything as worthy and cutting-edge in print. So, long story short, I figured if there was anyone I knew who could recommend something that was up to the task along these lines, you'd be the guy to go to for the help I need -- and maybe make it a good next project for me, too. What's at the top of your "short" list?

If you don't feel comfortable making a public endorsement, howzabout sending it over to Randy's workshop by email and we'll settle the score off stage. Is H.P. Spahn a good choice, or can you suggest something better? Thanks in advance!! (PS. As soon as I sort out a thing or two, I'm eager to talk to you about some of the ideas I'm shaping with the tools De Soto has been helping me acquire. We need to get Miner in on this, too.)

Gold. The key to unlocking many doors. --- Aristotle
DryWasher
(06/15/2004; 12:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122109)
$$$$$ 400.0 $$$$$

So why did I pick $400 for the POG on Friday, June 25, 2004? Honestly it is just a wild guess.

Fundamentals continue to indicate that the POG absolutely MUST go much higher while political considerations indicate that the POG absolutely MUST NOT be allowed to rise, so I expect to see continued volatility in the POG.

As I write this on June 15, Gold is up $5.50 at $ 388.20 and I am guessing that it will continue to rise $11.80 in the next ten days, but I would not be at all surprised if it fell $ 11.80 to $376.40 in the next ten days either.

In this contest, thanks to our generous host, we all have a small chance of winning, and no chance of loosing, so fellow forum members, join in the fun and make your guess, but don't forget that our host has given each and every one of us the chance to be winners by providing this forum and all of it's resources to us absolutely free if we will just take advantage of it.

If and when you decided to add a bit of yellow to your stash give our host a call. I think you will find the prices to be competitive and the service top rate as I did, and you will be helping to maintain this valuable forum.

DryWasher.
Topaz
(06/15/2004; 13:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122110)
@Ari.
Good morning (here) Sir,
I refer to your rather brusque commentary on Sir Melting Pots linked Taylor article.
Perhaps, as time permits, could you elaborate on the mechanics of monetary debasement as it applies to inflation (in the modern context)?
I'm curious to hear how you percieve the current exponential money supply growth working it's way through the cracks to effect an inflation or even hyperinflation "here on the street".
TownCrier
(06/15/2004; 13:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122111)
Fed Chairman Greenspan's Senate testimony
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040615/economy_fed_greenspan_highlights_4.html(selected excerpts from the ever-interesting Q&A session)

On China:
"They are acutely aware of the fact that their stabilization of the (yuan) versus the dollar has required very large accumulations of dollar assets on the balance sheet of the People's Bank, China's central bank. ........ I think that over the longer run, it will become very apparent ... to the Chinese financial authorities that intervention of the type they have been doing has not been helpful to them, so I think in their own interest that is going to change."

On foreign sales of Treasury securities:
"We think that ... the degree of flexibility in our financial system is sufficient to absorb very considerable amounts of change."

---(from url)----

I chose those two because it makes for an interesting point, counter-point.

The sands of time are running out on the status quo.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/15/2004; 13:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122112)
Exercise your savings decisions to enjoy personal sovereignty, security, and serenity
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations???

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100


International Toll Free
click here

Topaz
(06/15/2004; 13:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122113)
***$421***
Let's try and wrest the precious from the vaults by picking Gandy's "example"!
The 25th will, imo see PoG in this vicinity as the USD attempts to devalue in preparation for end of quarter book-keeping and foreign currency repatriation to provide a much needed crutch for the "sacred-cow" Stock Market.
Gandalf the White
(06/15/2004; 13:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122114)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
YES, those are the trumpets sounding ANOTHER CONTEST !!!!

A call to contest! A call to contest!

Thanks to the EARLY bird entries today!!!
---

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst, when it prints:

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this
time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

---

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the TableRound knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

---

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.

First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the "Essay Contest", please indicate the essay entry in the message subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****
(Surrounded by stars)

The "Essay" titled **** The End of Cheap Oil **** should be fifty or more words in length and the DEADLINE for entry is HIGH NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.

---
AND, YES --- a Second Contest segment , a gold price guessing contest and STATEMENT !!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the August COMEX (paper) contract (GC4Q) SETTLEMENT on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in "Dollars and Tenths of a Dollar', and posted by 12:00 Midnight (MDT) in the Rocky Mountains, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your "POG Contest" entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on "WHY" you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

THE PRIZES, are as follows:

For the "Essay Contest":

First prize: A "collector's" USA $10 gold Liberty in uncirculated grade, (0.48375 oz. net fine gold)

Second prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Third prize: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===

For the GOLD price guessing contest:

First prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===
NOTE to all LURKERS --- Get your free password and enter these two segments of the CONTEST to win FREE GOLD !

Good luck to all.........
<;-)


TownCrier
(06/15/2004; 14:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122115)
A gold price tidbit or two
Today, contracts for August gold on the NY commodities exchange closed up at $388.70.

However, spot gold closed higher with a bid/ask at $$388.75/$389.50.

Here is another interesting point:

During the past month (30 days) the euro-denominated price of gold has fluctuated in a 10 euro range, whereas the dollar-denominated price has fluctuated in a $20 range. (see url)

From that, one might casually expect to discover the dollar is half the value of a euro, such that one euro equals $2. But in fact the exchange rate is in the neighborhood of one euro equals $1.20.

A fun puzzle for our mathematicians might be to consider, then, why a 10 euro fluctuation has coincided with a $20 fluctuation rather than a $12 fluctuation as one might otherwise have expected to see reflected in the price.

R.
TownCrier
(06/15/2004; 14:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122116)
Here is the url mentioned in the prior post.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlFor use in comparing the fluctuations in the dollar and euro one-month gold price graphs.

R.
Topaz
(06/15/2004; 14:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122117)
***The end of cheap Oil***
Those who look upon Mona Lisa or Guernica and see Canvas and paint are truly the ultimate realists. This realist viewpoint, when considering "the price of Oil", does not take into consideration the undeniable attachment Oil has with our current monetary universe.
RELATIVELY Cheap might be a more appropriate statement and given the obvious - every Barrel burned is a Barrel less - the "relative" price would be expected to rise.
Enter 'ol Buckaroo!
As part and parcel of this $US/Oil reserve currency fiat system, the "price" of Oil is quoted and traded through the mighty Greenback and as such, said price is dependant to a very large degree on monetary events rather than pragmatic S/D.
Let's revisit our "Artwork" and again gaze upon these two "Masterpieces"
One takes little or no interpretation and has been revered through the Ages as one of the top 3 artworks in history (akin to Gold/Standard) ... the other, a "surrealist" interpretation, takes far more effort understanding/interpretation but is nonetheless revered in the modern world (akin to Fiat/$/Oil)
Whether in 200 Yr's Picasso's masterpiece is held in similar awe as is the Mona-Lisa today is anyones' guess ...tho I'd be pretty safe in assuming our current monetary system will not gain too much favour when compared to Gold.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/15/2004; 14:40:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122118)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

excerpts of US closing market rap:

COMEX gold futures settled higher on Tuesday, boosted by a climbing euro after a U.S. inflation report allayed fears that the Federal Reserve would be vigorously raising interest rates, market sources said....August gold rose $4.50 to finish at $388.70 an ounce...

Traders said futures hit a wall at the session high of $390, where stiff resistance was lurking, after breaking past a chart barrier at $388.40....

...players seemed to feel that inflation was not such a big problem that it would provoke the Fed to raise rates more than 25 points at its late-June meeting....

The market's attention remains fixed on the U.S. dollar and forthcoming likely rise in U.S. interest rates rather than the prospect of a return of inflation. "The current mindset of the market is such that it remains dollar-driven more than anything else. So watch what the dollar does and gold will do the opposite," said a dealer with a New York commission house.

Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, agreed: "At the moment, the market is spinning any signs of inflation as a negative for gold, because the argument goes that any signs of higher inflation will make the Federal Reserve more aggressive in raising interest rates, which will be bullish for the U.S. dollar.

"So the dollar is still by far the main driver of this market," he said.

"The market will have real difficulty in getting above $400 while the market is spinning (inflation) the way it is..."

----(see link for access to full news and spin it the way that's right for you)-----
Belgian
(06/15/2004; 15:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122119)
@Ari
Most probably, I'm going to disappoint you by telling that I finished reading books. For the simple reason that almost everything has been said...and repeated...a million times !

A lot of basic fundamentals are being "intellectualized", over and over again. Nothing wrong, of course, with having one's brain being trained at the intellectual gyms.

I prefer to look (to observe) at this world in my very little "own way". I want to discover it all by myself with a minimum of maps. Adventurous, Ari !

I'm always looking forward to read "your" (and many others) *** personal *** provocative reflexions on the events.
Good dialogs are much more thought-stimulating than pr�-chewed take-away books, articles.

Afer having absorbed enough material, there remains very little precious time to think independantly (autonomously) by one self.

I'm all ears, Ari...now its bedtime for me. Hear you tomorrow. Goodnight.


DryWasher
(06/15/2004; 16:21:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122120)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

The Contest Question:

"What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?"

When history provides answers to the above questions it will fill volumes of books and will rank, in a negative way, on a level of importance with the industrial revolution in the history of mankind in my opinion.

Cheap abundant energy is an absolute requirement for our technological society, and as that energy continues to become more expensive and less available we will see corresponding negative changes in expectations and lifestyles. The ultimate long term impact will in large part be determined by how we all react to the situation.

In the most optimistic scenario, on a world wide basis, we will all tighten our belts and work together to make the best of a bad situation by sharing and making the best use of the remaining resources, curbing population growth, and in general cooperating and voluntarily curbing our life styles while working to develop new sources of energy to replace the dwindling hydrocarbon resources.

In the most pessimistic scenario, we will not develop new energy sources, we will continue to waste energy while looking out for our own immediate individual needs and wants, resorting to war, or even to nuclear war, to take and squander the remaining resources, and ultimately putting an end to world wide civilization as we know it.

What really happens will probably fall somewhere between the above two extreme scenarios and will be very much complicated by the impending financial debt crisis with the possible collapse of the Dollar and other currencies. As I see it, it could become the proverbial perfect storm.

As has been the case throughout history during bad times, those who have GOLD will be far better off than those who do not.

Sorry for being so pessimistic, but I must tell it as I see it.

DryWasher.
DryWasher
(06/15/2004; 17:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122121)
Pessimistic Outlook on The End of Cheap Oil
http://www.dieoff.com/index.html
For those who think my contest entry (msg#: 122120) is overly pessimistic, take a look at the above link. Now that is REALLY pessimistic!

Federal_Reserves
(06/15/2004; 17:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122122)
Goods and services rising the most so far in 2004
Goods and services rising the most so far in 2004

Item Annualized price change

Motor fuels other than gasoline (diesel, etc.) - 62.7%
Gasoline - 58.1
Butter & margarine - 47.2
Motor vehicle fees (license & registration) - 32.4
Delivery service - 22.7
Fuel oil & other fuel - 18.4
Apples - 16.6
Women's suits & separates - 16.2
Airline fares - 13.0
Utilities (gas service) - 12.6
Other fats & oils including peanut butter - 12.3
Audio discs & tapes - 11.5
Hotels & motels - 11.0
Indoor plants & flowers - 10.9
Boy's apparel - 10.5
Household item repair - 9.5
College tuition & fees - 9.3
Bikes and other sports vehicles - 9.1
Legal services - 8.9
Men's shirts & sweaters - 8.8
Jewelry - 8.8
Pets & pet products - 8.8
Eggs - 8.7
Jewelry & watches - 8.3
Cheese & related products - 8.1

Data: January Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cavan Man
(06/15/2004; 18:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 122123)
Federal_Reserves
Corrugated boxes: 16% average
Toolie
(06/15/2004; 19:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122124)
U.S. Catholics outsourcing prayers to India
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0613prayers13.htmlSnip: BANGALORE, India - With Roman Catholic clergy in short supply in the United States, Indian priests are picking up some of their work, saying Mass for special intentions, in a sacred if unusual version of outsourcing.

American, as well as Canadian and European, churches are sending Mass intentions, or requests for services like those to remember deceased relatives and thanksgiving prayers, to clergy in India.
�������
In Kerala, a state on the southwestern coast with one of the largest concentrations of Christians in India, churches often receive intentions from overseas. The Masses are conducted in Malayalam, the native language. The intention - often a prayer for the repose of the soul of a deceased relative, or for a sick family member, thanksgiving for a favor received or a prayer offering for a newborn - is announced at Mass.
I would think that if they wanted a prayer said, that they would do it themselves. If not for the sake of sincerity, then correctness. After all, it's a skill that may come in handy given the precarious nature of our times�it may not hurt to stay in practice.

The world that I grew-up in becomes more of a memory every day. Consumption without production. The expectation that the good times will last forever. The government said it, so it must be true. The idea that people should think or do for themselves seems as outdated as a flat globe. The day when a bag boy gives me a list of hot stocks can't be more than a week away.
Moegold
(06/15/2004; 20:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122125)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

"What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?"

Since the dollar went off the gold standard, the dollar has been, de facto, priced in oil. The world knows what a barrel of oil costs in dollars and are able then to assign a value to the dollar. When the US was on a gold standard, it had to actually hand over gold that the US possessed; under the oil standard the US just had to print the dollars and they were redeemed by oil producing countries which in a magnanimous gesture delivered THEIR oil reserves. The end of cheap oil means the value of a dollar will rapidly deteriorate. It only had value when producers were willing to take a modest amount of them for oil because they grossly undervalued their oil. The oil producers will be unwilling to trade a barrel of oil for a barrel of dollars. The emperor's (dollar) clothes will be gone; the intrinsic value of the naked dollar will be apparent. A replacement currency will be sought. It will unlikely be another fiat currency; the oil producers have plenty of paper. Another currency will be sought and the history will point to the golden way. Gold won't be priced in dollars; most things will be priced in gold. This will have a profound effect on the world economic system.
Remarx
(06/15/2004; 20:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122126)
@Flaccus, msg#: 122104
I am a socialist-leaning liberal who built and own a successful corporation and has purchased PMs (mostly from our gracious host). I also consider myself a rugged individualist. Knowing many others with the same bent, I would like to assure you that we're not such a bad group of people and we don't want to control people's personal lives or take away their individuality.

You are misrepresenting our position and intentions by confusing us with obsolete totalitarian dinosaurs from other parts of the world. Because we are not in favor of unfettered large-scale corporations does not mean we oppose the rights of individuals. In fact, the left is noted for its tolerance of individual diversity.

The example you selected, Halliburton, is "big government" spending sponsored by the right wing, not the left. With resepect to Bill Gates, it is not him that the left fears, but the aggregated power and influence Microsoft and other multinational corporations possess.

The thing we probably share in common is concern over the aggregation of power and control over our lives, whether it is from government, corporations, or both (as in the US). Though we may differ with respect to our solutions, perhaps we are not as diametrically opposed as you contend? Just food for thought.

Best regards,
Remarx
Solomon Weaver
(06/15/2004; 20:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122127)
test post from new system
??
Solomon Weaver
(06/15/2004; 20:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122128)
******the end of cheap oil**********
The end (time) of cheap (value) oil (energy). And of course, what does that mean for Gold?

Mankind, beyond sharing the qualities of other mammals to seek appropriate shelter and safety, forage for food, mate, sleep, and spend idle hours sitting, has a number of important discoveries or developments which in rough order of appearance in history may be summarized as: The use of tools to extend the power of the hand, the use of fire to pre-digest caloric value (diminish forage time) and to reduce spoilage, the husbandry of animals and plants, the invention of trade and accordingly money, the invention of written word, the invention of civil government, and the promulgation of warfare. Actually, both language and warfare are probably first on the list, and have evolved accordingly.

One hidden aspect of all these developments is the ability of mankind to "understand" himself, his clan, his enemies, and the nature in which he is embedded.

The emergent use of gold as ornament and money may be a crowning achievement of early civilization, as it allowed the concept of a "unit of trade" to thrive and act. The power of gold to facilitate honest trade, and create "value" eventually creates a "value" of its own for gold, in each culture.

But although gold facilitates trade, it does not diminish the "toil" required to plant and harvest a crop, sew a cloth, or build a hut. Gold may pay armies to fight, but it does not lessen their pain in death, nor assure their victory.

Since earliest of human times, mankind has used fire as a tool. Fire does reduce the toil required to clear a forest, or the digestive toil in eating food. Fire is an efficient form of shelter and safety, and a potent tool in the hunt and warfare. After many hundreds of thousands of years of use of fire, primarily by burning wood, and in some cases coal, and after some brief flirtations with wood-fired steam as a motive force, the near simultaneous discoveries or inventions of oil deposits and the principles of electrical power, approximately 150 years ago, allowed the introduction of an age which has been predominantly an age in which the direct toil of mankind is uncoupled from the benefits of toil. One glaring example is that the poorest of America today live better than many royalty in the earlier eras of toil.

Humans chose to exploit gold as money because it was an efficient means to create useful, durable, concentrated purchasing power (due to the high level of toil to mine gold). Humans chose to exploit oil because it became the most efficient means to harvest useful, abundant, concentrated energy. Note the word choice�for Gold, durable�..for oil, abundant. Gold is valuable because it is rare, oil is valuable because it is abundant. Unlimited supplies of gold will not reduce human toil, unlimited supplies of oil (energy) certainly would.

It might be worth noting that the amount of sunlight falling on the state of Texas on a sunny afternoon is just about the same as the total electrical generation capacity of the USA. Hydroelectric and nuclear power are already reasonable alternatives to natural gas and oil for power generation. Current developments in wind, tidal, and solar energy are still young but promising.

The "end" of cheap oil will lead to the beginning of "other forms of cheap energy". Of course we have an emerging energy crisis�.but mankind will manage through. Of course energy conservation (per unit of non-toil) is an important half of the equation, but we will continue to be amazed by the capability of mankind to discover new ways to work with energy�.to create (or harvest) it, and to conserve its use.

We all know of the hypothesis (by Another, FOA, and others) that the United States has been able to move from a gold backed currency to an oil backed currency�.the so called black gold. The most likely longer term outcome of "the end of cheap oil" will be "even more abundant energy" from a multitude of sources. The problem facing humanity will not be how to distribute limited resources, and diminishing energy supplies, it will be how to distribute the abundant economic output of low-toil industries in an equitable manner (which does not resort to outright socialism).

Fiat monies are not simply a convenient unit of financial account (a good thing), they are also a now global system by which large and growing governments and associated elites are able to confiscate wealth through the hidden taxation of inflation (a bad thing). Most of the confiscated purchasing power that does return to the poor is returned because it buys votes. There is almost no country which has an own central bank where government is considered to deliver better "bang for your buck" than freely operating private industries. Governments are inherently pork politics and corrupt (even if many honest folk work in them). An emerging class of world citizens generating new wealth will demand their change.

Gold will return, mainly in digital trade units, to replace much of the fiat world. Oddly enough, it will be the "end of cheap oil" which, after a period of crisis and adaptation, will usher in the abundant globally economy where gold will once again return to center stage as a financial anchor�.this is assured, as the emergent classes will demand a currency in which they can save.

I think of the old wisdom�. "praise Allah, but tie your camel to the post". I say "toil for the true abundance of humanity, but keep some gold in your back pocket". Or perhaps a twist on the old American saying�."Gold helps those who help themselves".
Gandalf the White
(06/15/2004; 22:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122129)
The US$ fell off the CLIFF today ! AND GOLD shines !! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10<;-)
Aristotle
(06/15/2004; 22:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122130)
Welcome back, Solomon W
I've always enjoyed reading your comments and the latest was no exception. It was nicely strung together.

BUT... (did you see that coming?)

As I was saying, it was nicely put together, but one of your concluding remarks sticks out like a sore thumb in sore need of mending.

"Gold will return, mainly in digital trade units, to replace much of the fiat world."

Sounds to me like you're saying oil and vinegar (two separate things) rather than sugar and syrup (two expressions of a single thing.)

Here's my point...

The other day I received an insured, double-boxed FedEx shipment that had been carefully packed with a goodly amount of Gold. I was very well pleased with the contents! However, had it been filled instead with "digital trade units" I'd not be wearing the smile I have now.

Other than that quibble, keep up the good work!

Gold. Know the difference, and get you some. --- Ari
Belgian
(06/15/2004; 22:58:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122131)
Godspan on the stage....
Le "Chef d'orchestre", clicked with his little wooden stick,...and,...the strengthening dollar retreated...IRs shrinked and dollar-goldprice made its $6 step !

This happened at price-"technical" important crossings, that were not pointing to Greenspan's pr�-meditaded direction.

Only ONE man...only ONE market !

Evidence to me, that some Big Fundamentals have already seriously detoriated and we need an authorative, directional regime as to avoid natural implosion. Does this sound dramatic enough...or is it fanatic doom-thinking ?
Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/15/2004; 23:08:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122132)
Belgian

Thanks for your thoughts on the ORO snippet.

Have you ever read the Henderson Fed study on central bank gold sales?

It fits quite nicely with the dilemma that ORO mentions.I've watched the euro POG closely since reading that,the failure(again)at 350 was painful,to say the least.Then,we get sold down the river by the Banque Du France,yikes,double shot.

Noone much mentions gold on account(except for ORO),how sizable a position it may be,and who will get their gold delivered if it fails to materialize as demanded...


and who won't.
Solomon Weaver
(06/15/2004; 23:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122133)
digital vs. tangible

Aristotle

Yes, nothing like a little contest to waken my juices.

If today, you can use a checking account or a credit card account which debits some FRNs from your possession, why not a future system where those debits represent gold deposited in secure banks?

I, by nature, am prone to save. My cash savings is held for short term liquidity, and I would like a fair but honest interest rate for cash deposits made for a period of time.

Is it not perverse that first the government slowly confiscates your money by slow devaluation of the purchasing power (inflation) and then they hit you again with long term capital gains taxes on assets which may even have lost value (when corrected for inflation)?

My unspoken hypothesis is that we are not in danger from the effects of "the end of cheap oil" as much as we are in danger from the folly of our own political and tax structures. Since the "cheapness" of oil is viewed in dollar lenses, it is perhaps the "end" of dear dollars we are NOW witnessing.

The true value of oil and all energy forms is marked to market in the reduction of human toil.....and thus we will explore and invent. Politically managed fiat currencies are digitally traded and used. Gold, to reassert itself as modern money must also be digital and divisable.

But do keep an ounce or two in your back pocket.....

POS
Belgian
(06/16/2004; 00:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122134)
@Ari
To most people, understanding and applicating the "theoretical" notion of the "FUNCTION - UTILITY " of Physical Gold in one's Possession, is one step too far. And on top of that,...the practical notion has been taken away.


The paperizers-digitalizers, succeeded in coralling all goldphiles around gold-derivatives as to keep them away from the *real* function - utility of the Physical (in Possession) itself !
Therefore, no one can be blamed for having forgotten (or never knew) what Physical Gold, really means/represents.

Many do reason as follows...Physical Gold in Possession (PGIP) has no function...because its "price" is doing nothing. They mean, the price of the Physical Gold in relation to its derivatives (goldmines included), wich were indeed providing enjoyeable swings. I am suspecting that goldmine-price-swings are getting out of fashion, the coming period...? That would be a Good, very good sign ! And an indication to me that PGIP is (might be in the process of) being encouraged. Will see...

Gold's *wealth*-utility must become matched with the *necessity*-utility of confetti/digits !!! Only the euro architects ...1/ can...2/wish...to make this happen. And this is adding more confusion to all goldphiles. What has this stupid (z)euro to do with Gold !? They don't see the euro-concept and stick to the convenient comfort of dollar-paper-gold...where there is no need...no utility...no function... for PGIP, stored in vaults !!!

5000 years of operative, Gold - "WEALTH" function, has been taken out by the incredible inflation of confetti/digit monetary use. This aberation will be pulled straight by Another settlement numeraire than the one who caused the whole "un-golding" !

Yes, Ari...it is indeed a matter of *property-rights* And it is the dollar-system that was (has been)(still is) *** EX-PROPIATING *** all owners (accumulators) of wealth, big or small !

We all see the daily prices of all Gold derivatives...but do we see ...suspect, that there might be (exist) invisible (exchange) prices for the PHYSICAL precious !!!-???
That's precisely the (dirty-naughty) little secret !

Floating GOLD shall become a MOVING TRADABLE WEALTH ASSET, again...in its function and utility to VALUE CURRENCIES IN PARALLEL !!! Throw that "backing"-thing in the bin ! Amen.
Aristotle
(06/16/2004; 00:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122135)
Solomon W
You'll get no dissension from me over the perversion of capital gains taxation, especially when it's argued that the "gains" seen on a static asset reflect nothing other than a depreciation of the price-measuring currency. In a similar vein we could discuss the relative (de)merits of taxation upon the interest earnings of your bank savings account.

The philosophies of taxation is fertile ground for endless discussions, but I'll content myself to put a quick bow on my side of the issue by saying that I don't like that governments use taxation (or not) as a stick or carrot to influence citizen behavior, but such as it is I prefer to see (this is off the cuff, mind you) sales taxes over any other kind (could income tax then be seen as a sort of sales tax on the service you provide as a laboring employee????) But with Gold, having an eye on that real factor of behavioral influence, it's the one case where I'd be prepared to argue my preference for a (small, non-penalizing) capital gains tax levied at the time of dishoarding rather than any sales tax levied at the time of its acquisition.

Getting back to the more important thing... I'm still not comfortable with your flirtations with a monetary system that's representational of Gold -- even at your noble insistence that it would be implemented as a digitally-assisted, yet full-bodied, barter equivalent.

It begins well, but ends awfully. (Think about what happens to the formerly *solid* meaning of "Gold" in that system as soon as any loans are granted.) So you see, that's exactly the road we've traveled in our history, and we're finally *finally* going through the repair phase after a loooooong period of malfunctions and denial as the world's continental powers and peasants lived inequitably under a lopsided distribution of privileges and exploitations.

Gold is Gold, and may it never again be perverted by employment in monetary guise for as long as we all shall live. Its value is inherent in its physical *TANGIBILITY*, not diffused in its easy "paperibility."

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Belgian
(06/16/2004; 00:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122136)
Hoi Bizarro/Solomon Weaver
B. : I've come to the strange conclusion that all "so-called" studies are for a large part..."ego-projections" , serving a particular one-sided purpose. In short : Biased with a negative undertone. Loaded with masses of shortsightened self-interest. Corporatism !

Can you (will you) please, elaborate on the gold-accounts thing. TIA.

S.W. : GOLD IS NOT MONEY !!! As one's Health (physical and mental Wealth) is "priceless" !
Belgian
(06/16/2004; 00:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122137)
@Ari
Your handle "ARISTOTLES" is perfectly fitting your personality ! You are gifted with oratory qualities.
I do enjoy reading your posts...immensely ! The (subtle) wording of your excellent thoughts, are a delicatesse (delicaty). Thanks. I'll after-enjoy it in my little garden.
Goldendome
(06/16/2004; 00:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122138)
********* The End of Cheap Oil ************
Impending declines in the production of crude oil, coupled with increasing demands for it's derived products, will pose serious challenges for the world's population, as we face further price increases in the near future. How mankind deals with the end of cheap oil may be as critical a challenge as any that we have faced since the Ice Ages, with the threat of war always lurking about, while desperate nations attempt to corner supply.

The modern world industrial economy has been fueled largely with cheap oil for over a century. And, it will be those nations, including the United States, most dependent upon cheap oil, that stand to suffer the greatest decline in living standards.

Will governments around the world ration the use of petroleum products as was done during World War 2? Determining for its citizens the greatest marginal utility for the increasingly rare commodity. Or, will market driven prices simply determine who or what group will use the oil, as it sees fit?

How these questions are answered, along with developments in new technologies that replace oil, will help determine where we live in relation to our work. The type of work that we do, and our general living and travel standards.

The continuing decline of marginal productivity (brought about by increasing oil prices) will likely continue the manufacturing drain from highly developed societies; placing increasing stress on government benefit programs in these countries. The United States will likely see increased competition from Asia, not only in easily manufactured items, but increasingly, from higher tech production.

Unless mankind is able to develop newer technologies for farming, heating cooling and lighting, and in transportation�everyone, around the world may face severe changes; including the very real possibilities of starving or freezing to death.

What will the end of cheap oil mean for Gold? I believe that we will see increasing inflation; both in monetary aggregates and in goods prices. With the dollar still the world reserve currency and oil still priced and paid for in U.S. dollars, we can rest assured that the United States will create as much free buying power as it can get away with, in order to- bring home the oil. As the public finally realizes that savings held in paper are decreasing rapidly in value, we are likely to see a larger movement away from paper assets and into Gold, as people attempt to conserve the dwindling value of their paper money savings and investments.
Aristotle
(06/16/2004; 00:59:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122139)
Bravo, Belgian!
Simply an outstanding post to have so near... it's exactly the sentiment I was trying (failing?) to convey in my concluding remarks.

The special reserve of one Rock Solid Safe ("SAVE") Asset in a stormy sea of debris...

Gold. It's all about preserving a touchstone of unassailable reality through tangibility. --- Ari
Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/16/2004; 01:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122140)
Gold on account

Just another form of paper gold,entirely removed from the CB/BB angle.Other than the fact that if/when push comes to shove,the CB's will probably have to bail out the investment banks' gold commitments.

To quote ORO,"It's like buying fire insurance from the explosives factory".
specie-man
(06/16/2004; 03:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122141)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****
What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

USA gold will be used to buy oil.
No one will know� until a few gold billion turn up missing.

The Sitting Buck will finally get picked off.
Bonds away !!!

Bush will be sent to the Bush League.
Kerry will be sorry he got the job, just like Carter.
Father Guido Sarducci will make sure of it.

Terrorism will continue unabated, and horrorism will grow unabashed.
The House of Saud will be forced into exile in Texas where they will start a ranch.
The media will call their spread "Howdy Arabia".
But as luck would have it, they'll discover the last remaining drops of US oil on their land.
The Middle Beast will rear it's ugly wellhead (again and again - but to no avail).

Japan will be in a no-gold situation.
Goldzilla will attack and destroy Tokyo unreal estate.

The Chinese will buy anything they can with their Federal Reserve NOTs.
A Stupid Trinkets (ST) factory will be set up in Newark.
It will manufacture endless unneccessities for the Chinese market.
But the Chinese won't buy any because they prefer to make their own and sell them to US.
But we will sell them scrap recycled plastic from toys made in China and sold years ago at Wal-Mart -
for 5 times what we paid for it.

Toro D�Oro will run rampant in the China shop.

The NAS-DAQ stock exchange will be NAS-TY.
The DOWn Industrial Average will go way down - it won't even be "average" any more.
The DOW will be positively Dour.

Toilet paper investments will get flushed.
They'll pull the peg on the Dollar.
No one will want to buy US Tragedy Bonds.

When convicted of "GSE" (Government-Sponsored Embezzlement),
Freddie & Fannie executives will go directly to jail.
Do not pass gold.

Diesels will be scrapped in favor of donkeys. Donkey carts will be big.
Genetically-engineered donkeys will be able to pull 25% more than ever before.
But they'll be 50% more stubborn.

The Baby Doomers will not be able to retire on time (if at all).
Many will have to get jobs riding shotgun on donkey carts (or cleaning up after them).
American cities will smell like everyone is passing the gas (pumps).
"Road Rage" will take on a decidedly different tone.

Everyone will finally realize that the Soylent Greenback is made out of people's debt.
And Americans and Asians will be forced to eat Soylent Greenspam for years to come.
But in the Gold Folks home we'll still eat real strawberry preserves -
which will cost $500 in Federal Reserve Nots (or two silver quarters) per jar.

He who has lots of "stuff" will prevail.
We all have a gold mind in the back of our heads.
But only a select few listen to it.
Thing King will rule.
For he is the "Dude Uncommon" who now holds gold.
SteveH
(06/16/2004; 03:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122142)
specie-man
I nominate sm's little-subtle-sardonic piece to the Hall-of-fame. Sufficiently unique, don't you think? Great at drawing a nasty picture, that although sad, wreaks of truth.
Aristotle
(06/16/2004; 04:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122143)
Topaz, sorry... duty calls
I'll try to cobble together an answer for you the next time around.

In the meanwhile, the shortest and simplest answer is that it all has more to do with the outright and utter rejection of deflation having any real possibility for all the obvious reasons.

More to the point, the stronger the pull of so-called deflationary forces (as seen by guys like Taylor,) the more the hyperinflationary seeds are sown. I don't see how they can hang their deflationary hats on any sort of (business) cyclical arguments while ignoring observations similar to those I made to Melting Pot in reference to the Taylor article.

After all, just look where we are today. Whereas, according to their selective map/formula, there's simply no way that we could/should ever have gotten here in the first place. Yet *here* is exactly where we are!! Therefore, I have a hard time buying any theory (significant deflation cycle) that so blatently ignores the very ground beneath our own feet.

Hey, maybe that took care of the reply?? (I didn't promise you'd like it!)

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
SteveH
(06/16/2004; 05:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122144)
Rules of Inflation
CPI
1. Inflation is not measured by the CPI.
2. The CPI is not an accurate depiction of inflation.
3. Too much emphasis is placed on the CPI as a measurement of inflation.
4. The CPI is a number that has too much political pressure upon it to truly ever be a measure of true inflation.
5. Then entire government pay-out system relies on a low and sustainable CPI.
6. Thus the CPI is a big-lie, marked up there with, "I won't invade Poland...."

Indirect Inflation Indicators

7. Inflation strikes indirectly at first.
8. Insurance and medical expenses rise triple digits to squeeze standards of living forcing consumers to choose less coverage and less medical care
9. All not measured by the CPI or that does not serve to contain the CPI is kept away from CPI and pooh-poohed as having to do with inflation.
10. That which is bought with debt drops in value; or stays even with CPI; that which is bought with real-money rizes or stays ahead of CPI (there are exceptions).

Direct Inflation Indicators

11. That which is a measure of true inflation is kept hidden or invoked as not-significant or else it is contained.
12. Taking dollars to Europe directly shows one the value lost through inflation.
13. Gold is controlled due to rule 11.
14. PPI may be no longer be reported due to rule 11.
15. Silver is controlled due to rule 11 (ask Ted).
16. Historical purchasing power of the dollar over 100 years is a true inflation indicator.

Use of Paper to contain inflation (and the price of gold)

17. Derivatives and futures markets' main benenfit (and government subsidies as well) is to become the market and control the underlying price of commodities, especially in areas in which a controlling body possesses sufficient quantity of the asset to feed into the system, just in case.
18. Commodities and goods that are not possessed by bodies in sufficient quantity to act as an overflow tank or suppressor, will rise (or fall) as consumer demand rises (or falls), but only after futures or derivatives can no longer paper over such rises or falls. Oil is becoming a good example, although the ME has traditionally been a body as seen in 17.
19. The Price of gold (and silver) is held back per rule 11, although there is some indication that the political will to feed physical gold (and silver) is waning due to commitments against gold held by official bodies per 11 and due to waning or reduced stock piles.
20. Food and energy costs are highly paperized per 17, to control and lower their long term price to contain inflation.

The Central Banks and GSE's
21. The CBs and their repetoire of paper control of inflation is largely unauditable by the historical purveyors of the power of government purses.
22. Due to 21, inflation is centrally managed by CB's by and through rule 17.
23. 21 has created a shadow banking land that exists between the CB and the private banking system. This land extends from 17 through to the ATM and credit card and home equity loan.
24. The land created by 23, carries out the will of 21 without fear of retribution or audit.
25. Government and private auditors appear to play hands off 23.
26. 21 has become too powerful and too complex, and time will tell this.
27. 17 too has become too powerful and too complex, and time will tell this.
28. MBA's, financial wizadry, and computer modeling has replaced economic morality with economic reality.
29. Central Banks took the politics out of money but put money into politics, in order to sustain itself (once created).

Corporate Ownership of the Press Hides Inflation
30. When large coperations came to control the press, certain areas of reporting become taboo, such as true inflation (and pro-gun stances).
31. Due to 30, the Central Bank is idolized, not criticized.
32. The Press lacks the political will to truly criticize 17 or 21.
33. Jobs of reporters depend upon not being "overly" critical.
34. Reporters are therefore dumbified or kept "not-so-smart" so as to not be too critical -- a moral dilemna of the press.
35. Lack of criticism of 17 and 21 by the press, serves the Central Banks but not the people.

What is inflation?

36. Inflation is inevitable and historically proven end-game of monies.
37. Inflation is a long-term trend of a currency to buy less with more that is controlled in the political short term but long term is uncontrollable.
38.Inflation is marked by periods of stability strewn with bursts of instability.
39. Inflation is not the CPI, it is not the PPI. It is a money as seen over 100 years, with all politics and agendas removed from its measurment. Short term measure only serve to confuse and set the tone for the longer term.
40. Inflation does not justify the wrong-doings of a central bank or the lack of morality of the shadow banking land that does the will of the CB. The end does not justify the means.
SteveH
(06/16/2004; 05:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122145)
What is not measured
FR posted the below yesterday. In his list, I do not see the 48% rise in my house insurance bill from last year. Or the more than 100% rise in that same bill from five years ago. I don't see the $150 per month pay cut I took to reduce my employers health insurance costs. I do not see the 100% increase in my per-prescription fee for generic and name-brand medicines each month that I must now pay because my employer reduced their premium. I do not see my 20% rise in car insurance either. Insurance alone here has significantly reduced my standard of living without even delving into the below. I am required by contract to maintain home insurance. I can't drive without car insurance. All I can do is shop around for cheaper insurance only to suffer the same pain the next year.

What happens when my insurance costs exceed my income or my ability to hold a license or own a home? At the rate of increases, of late, that is only a few years hence.

Then there is the issue of my mechanic who now makes on the low side of what my typical fees I have been enjoying for being a highly trained computer guy. My car costs double what it cost to repair it from a few years ago and I drive to locations to make a living. My fixed per mile reimbursement cost is still the same it was four years ago, but now costs me 40% or so more to drive to my jobs.

My attorney isn't only charging 10% more for services, rather more like 25% more than a few years ago. I did meet an attorney the other day whose services were going for $75 per hour, but I suspect that was an anomoly, as I am seeing $150 plus per hour.

The squeeze is coming, it is mostly indirect costs, not measured by the cpi, nor by the below statistics. At some point, something will give, and it doesn't look pretty.

Federal_Reserves (6/15/04; 17:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 122122)
Goods and services rising the most so far in 2004
Goods and services rising the most so far in 2004

Item Annualized price change

Motor fuels other than gasoline (diesel, etc.) - 62.7%
Gasoline - 58.1
Butter & margarine - 47.2
Motor vehicle fees (license & registration) - 32.4
Delivery service - 22.7
Fuel oil & other fuel - 18.4
Apples - 16.6
Women's suits & separates - 16.2
Airline fares - 13.0
Utilities (gas service) - 12.6
Other fats & oils including peanut butter - 12.3
Audio discs & tapes - 11.5
Hotels & motels - 11.0
Indoor plants & flowers - 10.9
Boy's apparel - 10.5
Household item repair - 9.5
College tuition & fees - 9.3
Bikes and other sports vehicles - 9.1
Legal services - 8.9
Men's shirts & sweaters - 8.8
Jewelry - 8.8
Pets & pet products - 8.8
Eggs - 8.7
Jewelry & watches - 8.3
Cheese & related products - 8.1

Data: January Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Melting Pot
(06/16/2004; 07:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122146)
Why the coming war on Iran? Iran takes on west's control of oil trading
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1239644,00.html
Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and Opec producers that could threaten the supremacy of London's International Petroleum Exchange.

A contract to design and establish a new platform for crude, natural gas and petrochemical trades is expected to be signed with an international consortium within days.

Top oil producing countries are determined to seize more control of trading after being advised that existing markets such as the IPE and Nymex in New York are not working in their favour.

The world is not short of oil and reserves should last 40 years at today's rates of consumption, according to BP chief executive John Browne.



ANOTHERS visions hold true again ..... Rothschild, LBMA, and Gold boiling in Oil.

If real physical gold trading dries up it's price will rise forcing down the value of oil. All this year physical gold volume kept drying up as paper short volume exploded. But,each time before a squeeze started to run the price the CBs would sell thru LBMA . You see, when paper trading ( of anything ) volume dries up it's a bearish sign but when real physical gold volume drops it's bullish! Thats because gold is being cornered on a scale never seen in history. LBMA is doing it's best to show real volume exists! The problem is, "if the CBs don't expand their roll as "primary suppliers" LBMA will implode and in the process create the greatest bull market in oil and gold the world has ever seen. That is why some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold. Interesting, don't you think?

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html

I wouldn't go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.

There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism. -- Excerpt from a speech delivered in 1933, by Major General Smedley Butler, USMC.

http://www.fas.org/man/smedley.htm
Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/16/2004; 08:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122147)
Belgian,gold on account

"The parallel problem in gold markets is that the volume of outstanding leverage has exploded. The players in the market are suffering from having much in the way of gold delivery commitments for liabilities, balanced by either currency assets or by weak gold delivery obligation assets. It is an assymetrical balance sheet where gold stands on one side and something else stands on the other. As a result, there is a multifaceted gold shortage, which like any other shortage is bringing material out of inventory. There is a physical deficit in the producer's gold market that should have accumulated 16000 tonnes in deficits by the end of this year - meaning that much gold has left the vaults. There is also an investor gold deficit created by banks catering to people like you two. This is the much greater part as you and many others like you have put claims on an unreal amount of gold that could come to a 60000 tonne total by one of my estimates. Perhaps more. The bulk of these is in gold accounts (unallocated), not OTC and not market traded derivatives, but a simple deposit at a bank."

ORO,USAGOLD,09/27/00,#37697

I really have no idea what the scale of the this "paper gold" operation could be,I just know it exists in some form.It's the old warehouse receipts game,I believe.

Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/16/2004; 09:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122148)
Or,perhaps FOA's view on this subject,Checking the View,msg#41,Oct,2000

In the days ahead, we will see it as price inflation as Physical goods cannot be delivered against all the outstanding currency calls in the consumer marketplace. In many cases, it's the holders of these "paper SUV" contracts (what we call dollars) that will see their savings value tumble as the underlying physical goods soars in price.

So, this is the classical price inflation that results after a long expansion of a fiat currency. From the beginning the currency is seen as a contract for the delivery of goods sometime in the future. We save it (fiat) instead of spending it because it's convenient and logical. Yet, the more that people, and in general the international marketplace relies on this method of holding their goods the more the officials expand the contracts (fiat currency) as a method of creating fictional wealth. This expanded currency is used to buy services, goods and commodities, even oil! But it's timeline has a beginning and an end. Today, we are at the dollar's end!

More:

So do we see any comparison to "paper gold" in the above? You bet we do! Like hand in glove "gold the money" travels the exact same route "dollars the fiat" does in our modern banking system.

For every person that thinks their "paper dollar" holdings can be spent for goods and receive those goods (call for delivery) at near today's price,,,,,,,,,, there are almost as many "paper gold holders" that think the world system will "deliver gold" in the price and amounts they have contracted for. Folks,,,,,, in today's world,that's a lot of gold owners!

Yet, the holders of "paper gold" will fair little better than the holders of "paper dollars" in the coming super inflation. Both will lag the price rises of physical goods and physical gold as the inability of the finite supply system to deliver comes into play. One will end up in grocery markets trying to spend those paper dollar contracts and beat rising prices, while the other ends up in court, waiting for the delivery of physical gold that simply does not exist.

--------------------------------------

Another (and by following him, myself also) has seen this end from long ago. We buy physical gold not for it's commodity dollar value, but rather for it's money value in the coming failure of the entire dollar system. We do not expect the world to fail, rather change. We see a transition where traders see the loss of a infrastructure that blocks their building of wealth. Bullish gold traders detest our view because it denies them their dollar trading profits. Yet, dollar profits were exactly what we were trying to avoid.

To date, Another's view and position has been and is continuing to be right. The dollar paper system is on fire and the gold paper system is failing from continuous supply. The dollar is being forced upward as oil values rise, blocking all efforts of the Fed to raise rates and contract the runaway system. Hyperinflation is directly in our path.

Caradoc
(06/16/2004; 09:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122150)
one more time
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/I'll try pasting the link correctly this time.
Gandalf the White
(06/16/2004; 11:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122151)
Repeat Notice --- TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
A call to contest! A call to contest!

NOTE: Thanks for ALL those early and GREAT Essay Contest entries !
(Numerous prospective Hobbit judges are now advising that they are on "travel" for the fortnight and will be unable to assist in the judging of entries.) But, NOT to worry !
<;-)
------

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst, when it prints:

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this
time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

---

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the TableRound knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

---

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.

First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the "Essay Contest", please indicate the essay entry in the message subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****
(Surrounded by stars)

The "Essay" titled **** The End of Cheap Oil **** should be fifty or more words in length and the DEADLINE for entry is HIGH NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.

---
AND, YES --- a Second Contest segment , a gold price guessing contest and STATEMENT !!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the August COMEX (paper) contract (GC4Q) SETTLEMENT on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in "Dollars and Tenths of a Dollar', and posted by 12:00 Midnight (MDT) in the Rocky Mountains, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your "POG Contest" entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on "WHY" you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

THE PRIZES, are as follows:

For the "Essay Contest":

First prize: A "collector's" USA $10 gold Liberty in uncirculated grade, (0.48375 oz. net fine gold)

Second prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Third prize: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===

For the GOLD price guessing contest:

First prize: An Uruguay 5 peso goldpiece (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes: An USA Silver Eagle (One ounce 0.999 pure silver)

===
NOTE to all LURKERS --- Get your free password and enter these two segments of the CONTEST to win FREE GOLD !

Good luck to all.........
<;-)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/16/2004; 11:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122152)
Are you diversified? We can help you get there.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
TownCrier
(06/16/2004; 12:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122153)
Awareness of RISK in Fed Chairman Greenspan's Senate testimony
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2004/20040615/default.htm"...We at the Federal Reserve gradually came to recognize these structural changes and accordingly altered our understanding of the key parameters of the economic system and our policy stance. But while we lived through them, there was much uncertainty about the evolving structure of the economy and about the influence of monetary policy.

"The Federal Reserve's experiences over the past two decades make it clear that such uncertainty is not just a pervasive feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape. As a consequence, the conduct of monetary policy in the United States has come to involve, at its core, crucial elements of risk management. This conceptual framework emphasizes understanding the many sources of risk and uncertainty that policymakers face, quantifying those risks when possible, and assessing the costs associated with each of the risks...."

"...despite extensive efforts to capture and quantify what we perceive as the key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many of the important linkages is far from complete and, in all likelihood, will always remain so. Every economic model, no matter how detailed or how well designed, conceptually and empirically, is a vastly simplified representation of the world that we experience with all its intricacies on a day-to-day basis. Policymakers have needed to reach beyond models to broader--though less mathematically precise--hypotheses about how the world works."

"Going forward, we must remain prepared to deal with a wide range of events. Particularly notable in this regard is the fortunately low, but still deeply disturbing, possibility of another significant terrorist attack in the United States. Our economy was able to absorb the shock of the attacks of September 11 and to recover, though remnants of the effects remain. We at the Federal Reserve learned a good deal from that tragic episode with respect to the impact of policy and, of no less importance, the functioning under stress of the sophisticated payments system that supports our economy."

"Each generation of policymakers has had to grapple with a changing portfolio of problems. So while we importantly draw on the experiences of our predecessors, we can be sure that we will confront different problems in the future.

The Federal Reserve has been fortunate to have worked in a particularly favorable structural and political environment over the past quarter-century."

-------(from url)------

The idea of real risk is not an illusion. Set against a backdrop of so much risk and uncertainty openly acknowledged, what conscious person in their right mind would dare NOT to have a prudent diversification in gold? Gold stands on guard during the night and then faces each new dawn undaunted by the unending challenges of the day.

R.
Great Albino Bat
(06/16/2004; 12:17:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122154)
Silver coinage IN PARALLEL...."parallel" idea seems to spread...
www.plata.com.mxBELGIAN:

Strangely enough, a Mexican has some ideas about a parallel real money circulating alongside of fiat. Strange, isn't it, how an idea whose time has come pops up in unepxected places!

SNIP from an article in English: "The Hybrid Coin":

Here is my plan, as it stands for Mexico:

1. The one troy ounce pure silver coin minted by the Mexican Mint, which is currently an official coin with certain quite limited legal tender characteristics, and which is one of the "Libertad" series of silver coins, will be selected as the coin to circulate in parallel with paper (fiduciary) pesos. This coin has no nominal value engraved upon it. This is an essential characteristic of any coin that is to circulate in parallel with paper money.

2. The Mexican Central Bank will issue a daily quote on the full legal tender value of the one ounce "Libertad" coin, expressed in fiduciary pesos. At its quoted legal tender value, the coin is good for all types of payments, without discount of any sort.

3. The Mexican Central Bank will not reduce any quoted value of the "Libertad" ounce in fiduciary pesos, in any future quote. Successive quotes may stipulate a higher value in fiduciary pesos; or, there may no change in a quote for a period of time; but in any case, there will never be a lower quote for the "Libertad" ounce.

Tha GAB
TownCrier
(06/16/2004; 12:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122155)
The changing landscape as Old Man Rivers rolls along through time
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/other/2004/20040616/default.htmExcerpts of Fed Press Release

June 16, 2004--The Federal Reserve Banks today announced a strategy to accommodate the evolution of the nation's payments system from paper check processing to electronic processing, a development driven by a significant broad-based change in user preference....

"These steps are part of a forward-looking strategy that acknowledges the financial services industry's ongoing evolution from paper to electronic processing," said Gary Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and chairman of the Reserve Banks' Financial Services Policy Committee. "This shift is good for consumers and good for the financial services industry, and the Fed has encouraged this evolution for a number of years. As the payments system moves to accommodate more electronic options, the Fed will embrace a strategy that will respond to the marketplace as necessary."

As part of this strategy, the Reserve Banks also will undertake a thorough annual review of their existing check processing infrastructure, including potentially discontinuing paper check processing at some locations as the market evolves. Currently, the Reserve Banks are examining their existing check facilities and within the next few months will announce the discontinuation of some additional check-processing facilities through 2005.

------(from url)------

To continue the analogy just like we see with the Federal Reserve, the US Army Corp of Engineers engages in continuous activites in their effort to maintain the illusion among everyone that they have tamed the river.

Floods happen. Do you have a safe harbor?

R.
Rimh
(06/16/2004; 12:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122156)
******** $396.20 ********
We are currently in a doldrum of sorts, but as we approach the next FOMC meeting, I sense that Greenspan is preparing to say he is not quite ready to raise rates yet. Just a gut feeling that he's going to try to hold out a little longer (once again).

This should spur some dumping of dollars and consequent accumulation of gold, but the rise will be strongly tempered and will be held beneath the $400 threshold for psychological purposes. November is still some distance away and gold will not be allowed much freedom until after the elections, unless, of course, it is torn free by extraneous events.
Rimh
(06/16/2004; 13:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122157)
Real risk...,Towncrier
You said "The idea of real risk is not an illusion. Set against a backdrop of so much risk and uncertainty openly acknowledged, what conscious person in their right mind would dare NOT to have a prudent diversification in gold? Gold stands on guard during the night and then faces each new dawn undaunted by the unending challenges of the day."

While I agree with you completely on the gold's endurance in tough times, I realize that it has been such a long time since we have had to face, as a populous, serious enough financial problems to embrace gold. It pains me to see so many individuals heavily indebted, no savings and no perspective of financial prudence. But that is what we have been told to embrace by the banks, credit card companies, retailers, etc. in order to improve their bottom line at the expense of our bottom line. This can only end badly.

Thanks for the forum. At least some are coming in and finding a whole new perspective, not just about gold, but about appropriate financial diversification, preparation for hard times ahead and living small in a world of big egos and bigger scandals.
TownCrier
(06/16/2004; 13:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122158)
No ifs, ands, or buts, this is the monetary reality we're up against
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040616/economy_roseboro_debt_2.htmlWASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - A top U.S. Treasury official on Wednesday reaffirmed the need to raise the U.S.debt limit...

"Late summer, early fall is the projection," Treasury Undersecretary Brian Roseboro told reporters...

Roseboro said in a response to a reporter's question it might also be possible that Treasury could make it through the November general election before a hike in the $7.384 trillion debt ceiling would be needed.

"It depends on when we hit it and the amount, but that is a possibility," he said.

...Treasury Secretary John Snow urged Congress to raise the government's borrowing limit before the August recess.

...has already been raised twice during the Bush administration's tenure.

Because the legislation is seen as one of the few "must pass" items by Congress, however, it often gets slowed down by the addition of favored political items by lawmakers.

-----(from url)-----

Understand that bottom line. Even as the government dips again into the beggar's trough, without a bit of shame the elected officials are still eager to pile heaps of pork on top of pure debt.

Your money is only as good as the collective integrity of the borrowers who do or do not service their obligations. A federal government, due to its size and borrowing authority, in concert with an accommodating central bank, can be a major factor in the resolution of this equation. In a word: depreciation.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/16/2004; 14:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122159)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

(excerpts)

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased to the lower end of their recent range Wednesday as a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar kept buyers sidelined and prompted light liquidation among some speculative longs. The most-active Aug contract settled $3.50 lower at $385.20 per ounce.

...the greenback staged a strong recovery overnight and throughout Wednesday to re-apply pressure to gold.

Support for Aug futures should be found around $383 initially and then at $382 and $380 as physical offtake levels remain fairly steady and geopolitical uncertainty sustains some safe-haven interest.

At the same time, speculative players are expected to remain reluctant to aggressively push gold prices lower from current lows with the outlook for the U.S. dollar and interest rates still cloudy...

----(see url for access to full news)----
TownCrier
(06/16/2004; 14:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122160)
specie-man's international house of puncakes
That was probably the funniest and cleverest damn thing I've seen in a month or more.

Thanks!

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/16/2004; 15:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122161)
One of the world's many pictures of inflation
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

The Wealth of Nations???

paper burns, gold endures

A picture may be worth a thousand words,
but gold in hand can be... priceless.

Call Centennial for Best Prices or Order Online.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

Melting Pot
(06/16/2004; 15:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122162)
The Story of the Fed Is a Story of a Crime
http://www.strike-the-root.com/4/smith/smith5.html
The American people, of course, have been handed a thoroughly scrubbed version of the Fed: It exists to stabilize the economy and protect the public. Never mind the crashes in �21 and �29, the Great Depression from �29 to �39, recessions in �53, �57, �69, �75 and �81, another crash in �87, a bear market in 2000 that wiped out $7 trillion in stock market wealth by 2003, and constant inflation eating away 95% of the buying power of the dollar.

As economist Antony Sutton noted, "Warburg's revolutionary plan to get American society to go to work for Wall Street was astonishingly simple . . . . The Federal Reserve System is a legal private monopoly of the money supply operated for the benefit of the few under the guise of protecting and promoting the public interest."
TheJuniorMiner
(06/16/2004; 17:37:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122163)
******* The End of Cheap oil ***********
What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?
For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?


There will be much whining, grousing and gnashing of the teeth by the American public as the cost of energy rises. It will be blamed on Arabs, Oil Companies, Politicians and Environmentalists and few will understand that larger more powerful vehicles, bigger homes, decades of undervalued oil and natural gas and our carefree attitude toward energy, are to blame.

It will mean disruptions in our way of life and complete lifestyle changes. Real Estate prices will react, as homes in those distant subdivisions will be traded for ones close to the city. Smaller homes will be in vogue and cost of utilities will be a strong selling point. Vehicles must get smaller and more efficient and leisure travel will slow. Some will brag about gas mileage

The US economy will struggle as it copes with the never ending rising dollar price of oil. The public will be uncomfortable. Inflation will be a national topic.

World unrest, now high, will rise to a new level, as the Arab Nation's portion of world oil supply will grow. Many will try to prevent it and many will try to profit from it. Some may try and take it.

At some point China will have to let the dollar go and float their currency, as it will be the only way for them to alleviate the inflation pressure of rising dollar priced commodities.

The Japanese will finally get totally disgusted with supporting the dollar as they too need price relief in the commodity sector. They will have serious debates with what they must do with a half a trillion FRN's.

And the dollar price of gold and will keep rising. Expect extreme volatility, as this will be a power struggle not easily relinquished.


But I do not believe we are at the end of cheap oil yet. Though production will peak soon and world oil demand keeps rising, there is still a lot of oil sloshing around out there.

As long as we can print FRN's to trade for oil, oil will be cheap.The end of cheap oil won't come until those that produce it start demanding something real in return. What would happen if we really had to trade something worthwhile for our energy, gold, silver, copper, nickel and lead? When the producers wake up and realize they need something for their prized non-renewable resources besides a stack of worthless paper, then we will have The End of Cheap Oil.

Glenn
Solomon Weaver
(06/16/2004; 20:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122164)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/0616.html
Ari and Belgian

Interesting article by Alex Wallenwein, pertaining to our little topic.

Ari, I do like your "starts well, ends badly" idea about any system which trades or handles gold proxies or allows gold loans.

I am involved with a fairly large number of international negotiations, and I am sorry to report that most savvy worldly deal makers (from outside the USA) still believe in the almighty power of the dollar....like USD is a gold standard of it's own. I even had a Chinese guy, who was trying to switch from our "royalty as percent of sales" to a flat dollar royalty. When I expressed my concern that his proposal would be bad for us if the dollar continues to decline dramatically. He got a big smile and a big laugh and said "What, the dollar is accepted everywhere, it is always the best, what else should we set a price in? Gold? (My thoughts...1. if only you were foolish enough to mark 20 years of forward obligations in gold at today's prices 2. if only my boss would let me write such a deal). To an extremely large and intelligent business class, globally, gold is a metalla-non-grata.

So Ari, I have had just as many pleasures as you, opening those insured envelopes and seeing the glint of coin. It is one of the ways I try to protect my modest savings. At the time being, with gold being still so out of favor (at least in the USA), the very tangible nature and feeling of gold is an assurance. An immutable asset which is the obligation of nobody. This, as Belgian knows, is why gold is "priceless". The priceless value of gold in hand will appear to us, as the world realizes the immense amounts of gold proxies and papers......on your continuum of starts well, ends bad (dear Aristotle) we are definately at the "bad" side.

Gold, right now, does not assert its intrinsic value in an unsettled world.

But the world is now digital. Even that we can sit here over the years...sharing thoughts with eachother...and never meeting in the flesh....but meeting in the mind.

My professional work puts an automatic deposit into my checking account 2 times a month. As a renter, I have arranged to have my rent automatically paid. Does the fact of the mechanism of payments negate any right to say I have earned the right to live another month under this nice roof??

When the world wakes up and realizes how bad the central banks have been in managing our global savings, I think that the many who have neglected gold will return. They will want the safety of a savings that cannot be destroyed by inflation combined with the convenience of instantaneous transfers.

The constraint on the small physical market in gold today is the in and out transaction costs in owning gold. Some may laugh and some may smile....but in the 7 years I have owned gold and silver bullion coins, I have only bought, never sold (gave a few as gifts).

My prediction is that when the big turn around comes, the big banks and central banks will clamour to become the prudent and trustworthy storehouses for gold once again, and let gold depositors transact to deplete that gold, with transaction costs no different than what a single check has today. This will be the boon to those who have held onto gold through thick and thin.

Dear Aristotle...I have no personal attachment to my gold. I simply refuse to let go of it on such poor "terms of sale" as we have today.

Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver
(06/16/2004; 20:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122165)
(No Subject)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2004/0616.htmllink active
Black Blade
(06/16/2004; 21:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122166)
@Solomon - Gold Paper vs. Fiat Paper

Your comment: "I even had a Chinese guy, who was trying to switch from our "royalty as percent of sales" to a flat dollar royalty. When I expressed my concern that his proposal would be bad for us if the dollar continues to decline dramatically. He got a big smile and a big laugh and said "What, the dollar is accepted everywhere, it is always the best, what else should we set a price in? Gold?..."

Black Blade: It just reminds me of the old Swiss Franc when it was backed by Gold and how it appreciated several fold against the US Dollar in times of recession in the last several decades. Unfortunately they now have a fiat currency that will never ever match the highs it achieved in the past. The US and several other countries bullied the Swiss and other havens to lighten up on bank secrecy laws and the backing of hard assets. Even the poor old Cayman Islands and other offshore havens have been bullied by the US. Now we must "look out for number one" by accumulating our own Gold and Silver as an alternative currency to the US dollar burdened by ever growing and record breaking trade deficits (current account) and soaring budget deficits. Remember when ole Lyndon Baynes Johnson and friends got together and eliminated the backing and use of the US currency with Silver? How quickly Silver coin disappeared from circulation as people scrounged and picked out Silver coin. Rarely now will someone find a Silver dime/quarter/half dollar/dollar or a Silver Certificate given back in change. Yep, I even got a couple of Silver Certicates in change once at a hardware store (must have been some kid dipping into pops stash - a not a crinkle on it either). Anyway, it is now legal to exchange paper currency for the "real deal". Even with a small premium (smallest for the Krugerand for Gold), it is well worth the insurance that comes with it. A nice starting point for the essay on "Cheap Oil" too. Thanks for the memories!

- Black Blade
And�ril
(06/16/2004; 21:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122167)
Mr. Pot
The agenda of your sources Rothbard and Griffin is of one consistent mind. But for the indisputable inconvenience of chronology they would be quick to list American Civil War and European Dark Ages among their parade of central bank carnage.

Upon the new centralbank timeline they develop one diagnosis for the germs of all evil. Real problems of the old world conveniently vanish from their view!

Critical failures; they show no real capacity to fairly comprehend the state of a new world in function sans the central bank.

Their only tool is a hammer; they see every problem as a simple nail.

Do not buy their craftsmanship.
Black Blade
(06/16/2004; 22:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122168)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

In the Middle-East we have soldiers getting killed and oil pipelines getting blown-up that cut-off 1.6 million barrels of oil per day from reaching the markets. Global demand for oil is running very high and most exporting countries are already producing as much as they can. With the current developments I would have expected crude to add at least a dollar per barrel, but it barely budged today by only gaining thirteen cents to close at $37.32 per barrel. I could be wrong, but I take the lack of price movement as our guys sending a message to the pipeline terrorists that they can't win by threatening supplies. There was also added pressure for higher prices because U.S. inventories grew less than expected. Crude was expected to add 1.15 million barrels, but only managed a build of 800,000 and gasoline inventories were forecast to grow by 1.25 million barrels, but actually declined by 500,000. Believe it or not, with inventories declining the price of gasoline futures went down fractionally on the day to close at $1.147 per gallon.

Stocks Treading Water

The AMEX Oil Index managed to gain eight points or 1.3% to close at 621.81. One of the reasons for the pop in oil company shares was probably the news release saying the U.S. House of Representatives passed an energy policy bill that gives oil and natural gas producers a tax break and protects manufacturers of the gasoline additive MTBE from product liability lawsuits. (That was one of two major stumbling blocks - the other is the required 10% ethanol additive from corn growing states).

One of the stock indices that surprised me a bit today was the positive action in the HUI Gold Stock Index. I watch the index price relative to the changes in the price of bullion, so let me set it up a bit. On Monday, gold was down $2.50 (0.6%) and the HUI was nailed for a loss of 4.2%. Tuesday gold was up $4.70 (1.2%) but the HUI only gained 2.4%. So after two days gold was higher by $3.30 to $388.90 (continuous contract), but the gold stock index was lower from 185.51 to 182.09. Today the June gold contract dropped $3.50 to $384.60, but the HUI Index was fractionally higher. The gold share movement relative to the gold price could be telling us a move higher could be just around the corner. For gold stock investors this has been a big exercise in patience. We just have to keep waiting to see how much longer the shorts can keep a lid on both oil and gold. These are both critical commodities with regard to keeping a lid on inflation. If you believe as I do that inflation is understated, then the coiled spring of commodity price suppression will pay off in the end. Silver put on a very nice show toward the end of the trading session with a nice shot higher in the last couple hours to close with a one cent gain at $5.74 per ounce. I'll continue to wait patiently with my silver holdings for this paper game to come to an end when the Bozos run out of physical because of the artificially low prices. Waiting is sometimes very difficult, but our day will come again! (BB - I could be wrong, but Isn't Friday expiry for oil, NG and Precious Metals?)


Black Blade: Can't store petroleum and distillates very well but Gold, Silver, and Platinum is rather easy isn't it? What better way to play the currency markets without worrying about expiry and whether inflation/stagflation/deflation rears its ugly head. Anyway, it's just a solid foundation for a base of the "Wealth Pyramid". Money Managers are leading high net-worth individuals away from the USD for a reason and Precious Metals is one major component. Do they know something most of the Lemmings don't? Let's see now - three of the "Big Boyz" - Warren Buffett is into Silver Bullion, George Soros (and his brother Paul) are the major share holders of APEX Silver (SIL) and Gold Bullion, and Bill Gates is a big time holder of Pan American Silver (PAAS). There are several others too but ya gotta think that Gold figures prominently as well. Oh yeah, Warren has really added on big time his holdings on NatGas, Pipelines and Utilities and George Soros is rumored to be adding a lot of weight to Oil and NatGas holdings too. Warren said that he see's little if any stock of any company that "even remotely interest's him". Given the average valuation of most stocks - who can blame him. He is rumored to have added some TIPS to Berkshire though (the "inflation" related TIPs are bonds that rise exponentially with rising inflation - hmmm... - got to wonder about that one). We know how PMs do in such an environment so maybe something this "privilaged" investor knows that the typical Lemming doesn't.
Black Blade
(06/16/2004; 23:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122169)
Higher-skilled jobs not safe from outsourcing
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2629718
Snippit:

In the debate over high-technology jobs migrating abroad, there has been widespread agreement on one thing: The jobs requiring higher levels of skill are the least at risk. Routine software programming and testing jobs, analysts said, were most susceptible to being grabbed by fast-growing Indian outsourcing companies. People who devised the early blueprints for projects, the software architects, were regarded as far less likely to see their jobs farmed out.

But Microsoft contract documents show that as far back as 2001, the big software maker had agreed to pay two Indian outsourcing companies, Infosys and Satyam, to provide skilled "software architects" for Microsoft projects. The documents were obtained earlier this month by WashTech, an organization of technology workers based in Seattle, which gave copies to the New York Times. "The policy prescription you hear from people again and again as the response to the global competition of outsourcing is for Americans to move to high-end work," said Ronil Hira, an assistant professor for public policy at the Rochester Institute of Technology. "It's important to dispel the myth that high-end work is immune to offshore outsourcing."


Black Blade: Of course!!! I Have hammered this one here in the past before as well. When you can pay a foreign very well educated Phd fluent in english in BomBay $12,000/year or a moderatedly educated American MSc/Phd $120,000/year - the choice is quite clear. Go to any major (or even minor)US University and in the Graduate and Post-Graduate programs (especially the hardcore sciences) you will likely find 75%+ foreign born students (usually Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, etc.) and rarely an American born student. It's easier to become a lazy MBA or Lawyer memorizing code and ways of scamming than to become a "critical thinker" and "inovator". In short - "Goodbye Silicon Valley" and hello BomBay!!! Hell, even tech support for your high-tech goods you buy at Wal-Mart, basic goods or banking will likely be an overseas Indian answering to a name like Bob or Jennifer (sometimes with an accent - though they teach them to speak with midwestern accents too for example). I know this first hand as I paid a couple of SE Asian geologist $50/month each while I was getting about $450/day plus expenses at the time. I saw that the writing was on the wall. Besides, Americans are too lazy to pursue higher education in the hardcore sciences. I did it mainly for myself to satisfy my own curiosity, desire to learn, for fun and the profit followed later. Did you know that the average age of an American Petroleum Geologist/Emgineer is about 50 years old and now domestic US companies are scalping geos and engineers from other companies? HR people are having a tough time as stupid MBA's running companies think that there are plenty of qualified people out there - but even the US and Euro Universities don't graduate them anymore as it's more politically correct to train a "minimum wage monkey" in Hydrology or Environmental Geochem rather than (politically incorrect) Exploration, Production, and Mining. I love it - no competition anymore from the rising "young Turks". And to think I almost went into teaching and thought about medicine.
slingshot
(06/16/2004; 23:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122170)
The Prophecy of Oro
The Castle Lord had taken hold of his new sword with both hands. It flashed as the light from the fire on the darken pool behind him,hit the blade. He could see inscriptions etched into the blade and wondered what they meant. Sliding the sword into its sheath, he secured it to his side. Looking back he could clearly see the face of the figure that handed him the sword. Pale he was, as if hidden from the light. He could not see his eyes and this disturbed the Castle Lord for he felt he could see a mans soul if only he could see his eyes.
" Come with me", the figured said. The two walked together across the open space in the hall as others watched.
Stopping suddenly the figure asked, " By what name shall you be known?". The Castle Lord was taken by the idea.
"A new Leader, surely a new name is needed?" said the figure.
"Cyrus", said the Castle Lord. "And Cyrus it shall be", said the figure.
They traversed the hall and entered a tunnel coming to stand on a balcony carved from the mountainside. Its grey stone absorbed the daylight. "Wait" The figure said. He proceded to the stone wall and looked down. Seconds later a great roar rose from beneath and it grew louder till the figure raised his arms. All fell silent.
The figure spoke to the masses below. "I have found you a leader. One worthy of your alliegence". The figure motioned for Cyrus to come to his side.
"This is Cyrus, your commander, obey him as you would me!" and the figured stepped back from the edge.
The sound was deafening as Cyrus looked down to see his army below. It filled every part of the mountainsides and it seem they waited for this moment and he was caught up.
Cyrus turned back to look at the figure.

" Your name will be remembered long after your death", said the figure and he turned and went into the mountain.

Slingshot-----------------<>
Black Blade
(06/16/2004; 23:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122171)
Greenspan sounds reassuring note on inflation
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087295106153&p=1012571727088
Snippit:

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Tuesday sounded a reassuring note on the outlook for inflation and interest rates, wrong-footing market traders who had been anticipating faster rate rises. Appearing before the Senate banking committee to confirm his appointment for a fifth term, Mr Greenspan said: "Inflation pressures are not likely to be a serious concern."

He said that while high oil prices were affecting America's trading partners, they were not yet "a material factor" for the Fed in setting rates. "It could become a problem. I don't think we are there yet, but we are watching the situation, obviously, very closely". The Fed is less concerned about one-off effects of higher energy prices than about the possibility that higher inflation expectations become entrenched, leading to higher wage demands and an inflationary process.

Jean Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, said on Tuesday that the ECB was watching closely for evidence of "second round" effects following the surge in oil prices. Higher energy costs have contributed to a jump in eurozone inflation, which it is expected will be confirmed at 2.5 per cent for May, its highest level for two years.


Black Blade: It is one of those strange turns for Sir Greenspan as a few years ago he said that high energy costs were not a problem as it was only a small part of GDP (even though everything runs on energy). Then last year he comes up with frightening comments about high NatGas and Oil prices as a "disturbing" economic concern. Now he makes another U-turn. Ah, good old "senility" and lack of knowledge about how every post-war recession has been preceded by an "energy crisis". Now he is being reconfirmed for an unprecedented fifth term.

I am unconcerned as I have myself entrenched with the ultimate "portfolio insurance" - Precious Metals. Get with the program people and get "insured" at current "cheap" PM prices. Call the Castle Guard and discuss your own particular situation whether you are a current client or not. Time is running short and now the "price is right" - except this is no Game Show - this is real life!

Black Blade
(06/16/2004; 23:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122172)
OPEC asks nonmembers to join in output increase, but Russia demurs
http://www.iht.com/articles/525191.html

Snippit:

JAKARTA - OPEC said on Wednesday that it would ask producers outside the cartel to raise output to help cool high prices, but Russia, the largest non-OPEC producer, quickly replied that it had no slack in its system to increase exports.

Purnomo Yusgiantoro, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Indonesian minister of energy and mineral resources, said he would write to Russian, Angolan, Mexican and Omani officials to ask them to pump more crude after Iraqi exports were knocked out by sabotage. Oil prices have remained high despite a recent injection of additional output from OPEC into the market.

Purnomo said he was concerned that oil prices could rise after sabotage attacks on two oil pipelines in southern Iraq this week. The attacks and the subsequent closing of the Basra oil terminal threaten to take some 1.5 million barrels of oil a day off global markets, at least temporarily. "They have spare capacity to increase production," Purnomo said, referring to the non-OPEC nations. But the Interfax news agency quoted Moscow's No. 2 oil official as saying that Russia had no spare capacity. (BB - Sorry but that's a "pipe dream" - no pun intended).

"We don't have a tap that we can just turn on and off; we are producing exactly as much as we can," said Sergei Oganesyan, head of the Russian Federal Energy Agency.

Petrologistics, which tracks oil tanker capacity, estimates that OPEC's 10 core members, excluding Iraq, will produce 27.4 million barrels a day in June, just 500,000 barrels a day short of what the International Energy Agency says is the group's sustainable capacity.


Black Blade: With all the OPEC quota cheating, no more production capacity, 2 major pipeline blasts in Iraq last night and another biggie tonight, etc. They have to ask non-OPEC nations to help out (the ME is at all-out production) and 1-2 million bbl/day extra production over the next 3-4 years will be needed - it won't happen. Besides, Indonesia will be asked to leave OPEC soon, a strike is brewing in Nigeria, and Venezuela not even close to getting back to normal production - it looks bad for "cheap oil" to be back anytime soon. Oh yeah, Omani production is dropping like a rock too - they are in serious straights as reserves and resources have fallen to almost nil - a major factor in the loss of BP reserves in spite of fast rising oil prices. It's a hell of a lot uglier than most so-called "experts" are letting on! Even Russia never ever reclaimed its "peak production" levels reached in 1989. OPEC is talking a good game but they can't produce more than the quotas that they are cheating on - they are going "flat out" as is Saudi. Get ready, get prepared, get "insured", and get PMs to balance an investment portfolio that will tank like in 2000 (or worse). Get outta techs and telecoms again and into hard assets while you can!

I am working on my "End Of Cheap Oil" essay but work and these posting breaks are just too good to pass up.
Great Albino Bat
(06/17/2004; 00:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122173)
This will be interesting to watch...

So, oil supply is tight, demand does not flag but increases.

Yet, the price of oil barely budges. "A message"? Suppose it is a message that says, "Our price is x and no more."
The important part of the message is "OUR". Who is "our"?

Suppose it is a group. How long will the group hold together as a "buying cartel"? Who is going to blink first?

Selling cartels have a way of cheating, and so must buying cartels. The selling cartel falls apart because some producer needs to sell, more than the other guys.

The buying cartel falls apart because one of the buyers needs oil a lot more urgently than the others. So that buyer pays more. Naturally!

Who sets the price for any commodity? The marginal buyer and marginal seller. The buyer that is willing to pay more, sets the price for all the rest. One oil consumer is going to doublecross the others, that's for sure.

Poof! The price explodes as the buyers forget about the cartel and bid for the indispensable OIL.

Same goes for GOLD. One day, there will be a rush for the yellow metal, all agreements forgotten. Every day brings that moment closer. Get some of that stuff right away!

The GAB
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 00:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122174)
******* The End of Cheap Oil *******
" EVERYTHING IS GOING TO COST MORE!"
More for cars. More for Televisions. More for food.
I do not want to take away from this contest, but this is very elementary for those who have been here awhile reading Sir Black Blade's posts and the many who have supported his veiws. Oh! Oil is forever. Like water from the tap to be consumed at our leisure. The Europeans can teach the Americans a few tricks on this subject. To extoll the difference between the US and world economy is futile for it is too interdependent. Yes , some will go to war to claim finite oil fields only to extend their economies a few years out and they will resort to other forms of energy.
How much FIAT will be printed to finance these OIL WARS?
Shall we say,"These be the good old days" when everything was plentiful and cheap? Including, GOLD!
Very basic and I hope Joe Sixpack will understand what I have said here.
Slingshot-------------<>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 00:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122175)
HOF Nomination
I also nominate specie-man Msg# 122141 for HOF along with SteveH. Msg#122142. It a great piece of satire of which we all agree.
Slingshot-------<>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 01:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122176)
Why does the public feel the way it does about oil?
About oil or any other resource. The simple answer is they did not have to work for it. They do not understand the effort it takes to bring this luxury to their hands. The downfall is that they expect it to be there at their beckoning. There is an attitude, "To Live For Today". What about tomorrow?
What if you had to chop wood to stay alive? If your a hunter or live in the extreme north, you know what I am saying.
For this same reason is why this generation has no idea of gold. Plenty is a given and as long as the supply last, no one cares.
Slingshot---------<>
Black Blade
(06/17/2004; 01:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122177)
Small Order Desk
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html
Nice selection of Gold coin of several nationalities - open now (24/7). Or just fun to view for some late night visiting. (see link)

- Black Blade

Off to bed.
Black Blade
(06/17/2004; 02:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122178)
The other oil crisis: An overstretched tanker fleet
http://www.iht.com/articles/524277.html
Snippit:

LONDON Now that OPEC has agreed to raise its crude oil production quotas in hopes of soothing jittery oil markets, industry specialists are growing more concerned about both the capacity and the security of oil tankers, the next link in the supply chain. The world's tanker fleet is already stretched thin by demand for oil, by looming deadlines for the phaseout of single-hull tankers for safety and environmental reasons and by lengthening backlogs at the shipyards where new tankers are built. It is far from clear, industry specialists say, that the existing fleet can handle the new oil production that Saudi Arabia and others have promised for the coming months.

"There is just barely enough shipping capacity at these high production levels," said Jeffrey Goetz, head of marine projects and consulting at Poten Partners, a New York-based energy and ocean transport broker. Charter rates for tankers, which can be even more volatile than oil prices, have been driven up in recent weeks by the tight market. Shipping costs may now add $3 a barrel to the price of oil delivered to the United States from the Middle East, up from about $2 earlier in the year, analysts said. Rates are likely to rise even further if Saudi Arabia steps up its production as much as Saudi officials say it could - by a million barrels a day, to about 10 million. Experts say much of that new oil may back up in storage tanks in Saudi Arabia waiting for scarce tanker space.

Complicating the picture, new security regulations are scheduled to take effect on July 1 for all sizable commercial vessels ships calling at U.S. ports. Among other measures, the new rules require ship operators to make their engine rooms more secure and to demand identification from anyone who comes on board a tanker. Most major tanker owners will probably be in compliance in time, shipping specialists say, but some smaller operators may not make the deadline. Enforcement of the new rules may leave some tankers excluded from delivering to the United States.
Though there are more than 3,600 tankers in service in the world, about one-third of the world's oil supply is transported by just 435 of them, the towering two-million-barrel tankers known prosaically in the industry as very large crude carriers, or VLCCs. These ships are almost always completely booked, and new ones are slow to reach the market. The shipyards that can build them all have deep backlogs of orders for tankers and other vessels, so a new VLCC ordered today would probably not be delivered until late 2007 or early 2008 at the earliest. Tankers of the next largest size, known as Suez Max tankers because they barely fit through the Suez Canal, are also booked close to capacity. "Going into the fourth quarter, we could see a shortage of tankers" if oil production rises by the forecast two million barrels a day worldwide, said S.Magnus Fyhr, a Houston-based shipping analyst at Jefferies Co.


Black Blade: Just one more "bottleneck" regardless of production increases (as if it were possible). Besides, where will we put varying crudes while refineries run "flat-out" making over 50 summer season boutique reformulated gasoline blends. With over 96% utilization in the US and only one refinery going down then we could see prices in gasoline, diesel, distillates, plastics, petrochemicals, etc. rapidly rise. Now the tanker fleet is spoken for and forget about LNG as most that is going to the far-east and the fleet is spoken for. The fun is just beginning especially as double-hull tankers are needed to replace single-hull tankers being rapidly decommissioned.
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 02:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122179)
Black Blade
Don't go to bed yet!
Slingshot--------<>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 02:32:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122180)
One Ounce at a time
I read your post Msg# 122169 about skilled jobs and out sourcing. Graduates expect jobs befitting their sheepskins and their are none. So they settle for jobs of less pay. They have lost the vision of wealth adhereing to fiat. No mention of gold to build any nest egg for the future. A simple job like mind has done me well. I have been very fortunate to find this site. It is sad the amount of dis-information has turned those away from security in the latent years. I am angry at what the media projects to our younger generation. BUT I TELL YOU! because of your persistance in telling the truth, I will echo your posts.
I will drum, "One ounce at a time" and hope to save as many as I can who will listen.
Slingshot--------------<><><>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 03:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122181)
Single verses double hulled tankers
It would be interesting if single hulls are being pulled out of mothballs to handle the increase in demand of crude.

The New Jersey, Iowa and Wisconson, Battleships were put on line in time of need.
Slingshot-----------<>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 03:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122182)
Small tanker corporations
I have to ask for I have seen many small oil tankers in the Mediterranean as I did my duty. How do they apply to the tanker equation?
Slingshot----------<>
slingshot
(06/17/2004; 03:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122183)
$$$$$$385.7$$$$$$
They will not have gold go above $400 unless something happens before the elections. Two increases of $6.00 and they beat it back Big Time! Don't wait. Get in early.
Slingshot----------;0)
Topaz
(06/17/2004; 04:16:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122184)
@Ari.
Tks for reply, machine broken ... will try and resume at later date.
Lots happening now.
misetich
(06/17/2004; 07:19:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122185)
Fed Reserve - Beige Book - Economic update
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2004/20040616/default.htmSnips

Consumer Spending

General retailers throughout the districts expressed cautious optimism about sales in the coming months. Retailers in the Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco districts expressed concerns about the effects of increasing energy prices on sales
.......................
In Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Francisco auto dealers reported inventories above desired levels.
.......................
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity

St. Louis (paper materials and textiles), and San Francisco (commercial aircraft). Boston, New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago reported intensifying cost pressures because of rising input costs, especially for steel and related products, petrochemical products, and wood products. Chicago and Cleveland reported robust demand for steel. Chicago also reported that steel producers' orders were booked for the foreseeable future and that heavier shipping volumes were leading to a surge in truck demand.
.....................
Real Estate and Construction

Residential real estate activity remained robust in most districts
.................
Commercial real estate markets were mostly slack, although a few districts noted signs of moderate improvement
.........................
Banking and Finance

The decline in refinancing activity reported in Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Richmond districts was often linked to the rise in mortgage interest rates.
.....................
Agriculture

Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco reported strong livestock prices. Dairy prices have increased in San Francisco, and Minneapolis expects record May milk prices in Wisconsin
....................
Natural Resource Industries

but the expansion was limited by rising equipment costs and shortages of labor
.................
and want to expand capacity, but are dealing with constraints in obtaining raw materials
........................
Labor Markets, Wages, and Prices

Most districts indicated strengthening of labor markets. Boston, New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco reported increasing employment, plant expansions, and plant openings across several sectors, including manufacturing, construction, freight transportation services, and healthcare services
................
Richmond reported soft labor demand in the retail sector but stronger demand for temporary production and distribution centers, administrative, financial, and customer service workers in recent weeks.
....................
Contacts in the Dallas district reported continuing weakness in the labor market
.................
In Atlanta.............layoffs continued in the apparel and industrial chemical sectors,
....................
District reports indicated little or muted upward pressures on wages, although the rising cost of health insurance remained a key issue
.................
Consumer price increases were generally modest, but most districts reported increasing input prices, particularly of energy-related products, building materials, and steel.
..................
In response to higher input prices, some businesses were able to push up prices to their end consumers in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas districts
****************
Misetich

All in all a pretty "bleak" picture of an economy supposedly "growing" at a 4% plus peak

In summation, the labor picture remains weak, little wage pressure, rising health costs,
It is interesting to note the healtier job markets, is cited being in the manufacturing, natural resource centre which contradicts BLS job reports of April - May who estimate "huge" job creation in other sectors

Throughout the report, many references are made to RISING PRICE INFLATION, due to higher energy and raw material input costs and rising health costs

Most businesses are UNABLE to pass the costs through except fuel surcharges

Consumer spending going forward, accoriding to the report is SLOWING DOWN, due to higher costs, lower refinancing and stagnant wage increases

Little wonder the Fed is in no hurry to increase the current EMERGENCY IR

Thus higher price inflation, little job creation, higher budget deficits, and an accomodative Fed ( don't be fooled by the Fed "bluff" - who will probably increase 1/4 point to "show they mean business" in the next 3 months - but NO MORE THAN THAT as job creation is non-existent, and corporate earnings and corporate spending are being hit by rising REAL PRICE INFLATION,

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/17/2004; 07:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122186)
U.S. May Producer Prices SOARING
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=anIW5iIo7jLc&refer=usSnip:

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. producer prices rose 0.8 percent in May, the biggest increase in more than a year, boosted by surging energy and food costs, a government report showed. So- called core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3 percent.
..........................
Gasoline prices climbed to a record last month amid rising demand and concern that supplies were inadequate. Chemical-maker Rohm & Haas Co. and other companies that are paying more for energy and other raw materials have begun to charge their customers more.
..................
Wholesale prices rose 5 percent in May from a year ago, compared with a 3.7 percent gain in the 12 months that ended in April. The year-over-year increase was the biggest since December 1990
....................
Timken Co., the biggest U.S. maker of automotive and industrial bearings, said last week that it will increase prices on tubular steel products. Timken, based in Canton, Ohio, had previously announced increases for specialty stainless and aerospace alloy products, citing energy costs
.....................
The increase in costs of raw materials such as steel earlier this year ``is still making its way through the production process,'' Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said.

Philadelphia-based Rohm & Haas, the maker of Morton Salt and specialty chemicals used in paints, will increase prices as much as 12 percent to recover surging costs for energy and raw materials, Chief Executive Officer Rajiv Gupta told investors at a forum in New York on June 3.
.....................
****************
Misetich

The annualized rise in PPI for the last 3-4 months is in the DOUBLE DIGITS and it shows no signs of abating

Here's a GOLDEN NUGGET from the above article not included in the snip

Snip

"Price increases for finished goods have been limited by increased competition and excess production capacity, allowing the Fed to keep the overnight bank lending rate at an almost 46-year low of 1 percent since last June. An increase in the benchmark rate would be the first since May 16, 2000. "

End of snip

The Feds argue finish good prices are not being passed on to consumers (!) thus they're able to keep IR at emergency rates

In the meanwhile, in reality land, consumer spending is being choked to death by SPIRALING REAL PRICE INFLATION thanks to the Fed continued accommodative stance of increasing monetary inflation

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Smeagol
(06/17/2004; 07:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122187)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****
Hold, precious... lissten... it's the Contesst-horn!... we'll fissh later!
Smeagol likes the Contessts and considers it a great honor to throw in sside by sside with such Great Ones here even if we doesn't win the Precious, precious... after all we DID win not one but TWO Silver Preciouses once (and if we can, anyone can! Thank you again Sir MK!!)...we always come away with worthy inssight to inspire us on the Trail, O yess...
So....what riddle does Sir Gandalf put to us now... yaiow! Three?

"What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy?"

sss... it all very much depends on jusst how 'UN-cheap' Oil gets compared to everything else, eh? We will assume Oil will become worth many times its recent price in other... staple commodities (sstrange words if you look at them too long...).

Oil-use is sso long entrenched in the US country that it is involuntary...they MUSST have it, a great many would be losst without it... but even Hobbitses can give up their pipe-leaf in dire sstraits! Use of Oil mercilessly demands a certain fraction of capital, vasstly increases the rate of conssumption of other things, and affects every endeavor... Up until now, they have lived in halcyon days when that fraction was small and consisstent relatively...when the size of that fraction HURRTS it will irresisstibly force change to a more efficient or lesser Oil-use. The entire US economy is an awesome bubble, inflated by more than a century of Oil-use (and fiat besides)... and when it pops, O precious "watch out below!"

Ssome possibilities - Oil ssubstitutes that were far too expensive may become viable....much less consumptive motor-machines...more use of Oil-thrifty transsportation like bicycles. It will mean people living closer to where they work. More ssmall local farms and gardens as high Oil-cosst imposes sstiff penalties on food growth and transsport. More use of locally available resources, like building materials, for the same reason. More use of Man-power and Horse-power. More re-cycling. It will mean a return to a true appreciation of what it really takes to produce ssomething, or do work. It will mean 'cutting fat' and returning to a sstate more in keeping with reality and natural design. The US government musst either contract in size or become tyrannical to keep the Oil-habit...if the US country refuses to accept the neck-collar of high Oil-price; then it may do unthinkable things to and with its and the resst of the World's peoples and resources in an attempt to hold onto unsusstainable 'interessts' resulting from its Oil-addiction...and lie upon lie upon lie will be told to jusstify.

"For the world economy?"

The less a country depends on Oil... the closer it is to the land and to the old ways, the less the People there will be affected by Oil's wiles...sss...these days there are few countries that remain untouched. Like the US, developed countries will writhe in withdrawal as they adjusst... some may go to war for thinning slices of another's Oil-pie... The higher the Oil-price, the more volatile, and this will reflect in all aspects of Oil-use. Like the US country, the world economy will be forced awake from its dreams to seek a realisstic existence proportional to remaining Oil-use. Local production of food and things assumes more importance; though trade will sstill happen, unpredictable transport cosst will weigh on buying decisions (maybe the giant sailing-craft of old will rise again in a new form?). Decentralization will occur, as massive infra-sstructures are not ssmart. We thinks that control of what Oil is left will become paramount among corporate and government interests... like It, Oil is a Power, and who controls a Power controls those that use it...ach! sss...(shudder... sorry precious, this brings back memories of old bad times)..sss...and lives of Men are of no concern if it comes to that pass... the Elite consider Men peons, resources like Oil itsself, to be used up and cast aside by the millions... unless they wise up and ssay NO! in unison... but there are many on Earth now, perhaps more than can fit in an Oilless society...ssurvival of the fittest will be the law in many places. Only if Oil goes away ssslowwwly enough, over generations, then mayhaps we will return without war to a saner, if much less convenient, existence... but Smeagol doubts this.

"What will it mean for gold?"

Ach! Ssss...that Wizard knows how to assk a tough Quesstion!...if we could ssneak a look at that glass ball of his, we'd ssurely see things to ssay... but Spot and Spike guard it too well...sss... niiiiice doggies...sso we will jusst say...

...Gold is ancient... historically, Petro-Oil is a new thing to Gold-demand. We doesn't think a higher Oil-price as ssuch affects It... but Oil burnt is Oil gone, and society's REACTION to an interrupted Oil-habit/Oil-flow can certainly affect desire of It...sss... if there is Oil-shortage, and we mean a real one, precious... then this will cause many economic sysstems, powers and towers that were founded or benefit by Oil-use to collapse, and of course, whenever there is chaotic rearrangement in the world, people return to ancient realities, one of which is It. So... It will do what It has ever done... shield It's owner against wholesale wealth loss as a ssupreme wealth anchor in a stormy world... no matter It's price in paper, Oil, soy-beans... or pipe-leaf.

S.
misetich
(06/17/2004; 08:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122188)
Don't Bet On Too Many More 1.2% Monthly Retail Sales Increases
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/daily/us/dd061404.pdf____________________________________________________________
The 1.2% increase in May retail sales was impressive. Yes, part of the increase was due to a 4.0% rise in nominal gasoline sales. But even excluding gasoline sales, May retail sales increased by 0.9% after a 0.6% decline in April. Despite the strong May sales, for the quarter, retail sales growth appears to be slowing. Ex-gasoline, the April-May average of retail sales is up 5.8% annualized vs.
the first quarter average. In the first quarter, retail sales ex gasoline increased at an annual rate of 8.4%. One of the reasons why retail sales will moderate is that the initial stimulus from last year's personal tax cut is exhausted. A more important reason is that cash-out mortgage refinancing activity is likely to slow as interest rates continue to rise. After having slowed to an annual rate of about $116 billion in the fourth quarter, households� net extraction of equity from their homes rose
to an annualized pace of $321 billion in the first quarter (see chart below). This represented an augmentation to disposable personal income of 3.8 percentage points. The chart also shows a positive correlation between net equity extraction and mortgage refi applications. With refi
applications down sharply in the second quarter to date, it is a good be that net equity extraction will be too. This will have negative implications for consumer spending in the third quarter. Of course, a partial offset to this will be increased income from an improving labor market.
********************
Misetich

The "spinmasters" are continously misrepresenting facts - slanting to serve their masters, investment bankers, brokerage firms

An excellenting article on the spinmasters agenda can be found here

http://www.jsmineset.com/miscfiles/wp20040616.pdf

Economic reality is very bullish for GOLD investments as Central bankers worldwide are losing the WAR ON GOLD - The few battles they "have won" have cost them plenty of ammunition and resources

The attempt to control ALL MARKETS will fail as "they" are being overwhelmed by uncontrallable factors - primarily being, maintaining Asset Inflation

Asset Inflation can only be maintained if jobs creation is successful - which is neither the case in US or EU - thus an EMERGENCY IR policy is being maintained worldwide AND IS POISED TO BE MAINTAINED as such for the forseeable future to prevent Asset Deflation

Astute investors have anticipated upcoming events and are positioning themselves to protect their wealth by ACCUMULATING PHYSICAL GOLD as the fiat printing machines (monetary inflation) continue in overdrive stoking the fires of higher price inflation expectations

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/17/2004; 08:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122189)
Pimco chief says global outlook unstable
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373055886&p=1012571727088Snip:

The outlook for the global economy is the most uncertain for 20 or 30 years, according to Bill Gross, the influential chief investment officer of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund manager.


"Too much debt, geopolitical risk and several bubbles have created a very unstable environment which can turn any minute.

"More than any point in the past 20 or 30 years, there's potential for a reversal," he warned in an interview with the Financial Times.

"We have become a levered global economy, specifically in Japan and the US.

"With all this consumer debt, business debt, government debt, smaller movements in interest rates have a magnified effect . . . a small movement can tip the boat."
....................
"The US dollar is being supported by the kindness of strangers - Japan and China.

"It should be 20 per cent lower than it is. Japan and China will change their stance, we don't know when but we know they will. The dollar isn't overvalued against the euro but it is against Asian currencies."
...............
"Even banks are employing the 'carry' trade - borrowing short and lending long.

"They're doing things they haven't done before. There's lots of risk in the economy now compared with even five years ago."
.................
Pimco's plan was to "stay ahead of reflation" by keeping money out of the US and in countries such as the UK and Germany that would not be as badly hit by inflation
***************
Misetich

Red warning lights are flashing everywhere - yet corporate governance remains poor - Over the counter derivative markets are kept unregulated - perhaps intentionally - to allow excercise market control -

Yet the economic RISKS are rising daily...

Lets ponder, a golden nugget from one, Sir Alan Greenspan...

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world."
� Alan Greenspan, May 1999,
Testimony before US House Banking Committee

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/17/2004; 08:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122190)
CHINA - Fixed asset investment growth declines
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-06/14/content_1525438.htmSnip:

BEIJING, June 14 (Xinhuanet) -- China's fixed asset investment grew by 34.8 percent to 1,543.7 billion yuan (186.5 billion U.S. dollars) in January-May this year, but the growth rate was 8 percentage points lower than that in January-April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday.
.................

in May, up 18.3 percent year on year, but the growth rate declined by 16.4 percent compared with April. The number of new projects was reduced by 15.7 percent from a year earlier.
*****************

CHINA economic's growth has taken the economic leaders in the industrialized world by surprise - as it has fuelled a commodity price boom and high inflation expectations in the West

Sir Greenspan has been very vociferous, and commenting on CHINA, in recent months, a very unusual move on the part of the "world central banker" mentioning the possibility of China's economy overheating

The chinese government has acknowledged that some sectors were overheated and have taken steps to rectify them.

The above linked report, suggests the implemented measures are working.

The significant aspect of this so-called "slowdown" has had very little effect on commodity prices and oil demand

CHINA - is "Dennis the menace" to the industrialized world causing UNEXPECTED price inflationary pressures throughout

China "slowdown to sustainable level" is "good news" for them but bad news for the industrialized world as it continues to devaur natural resources thus forcing prices much much higher at at unexpected, unplanned clip

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Caradoc
(06/17/2004; 10:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122192)
Department of Treasury auction of siezed coins
http://www.treas.gov/auctions/irs/slcutcoins.htmlJust came across this one....
Caradoc
(06/17/2004; 10:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122193)
spelling error
Make that "seized."
misetich
(06/17/2004; 10:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122194)
Planning for Disaster: Why Is the Fed Doubling M3?
http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/channel.cfm?channelid=49&contentid=1325&page=2Snip:

"When you hear the expression on financial news media like CNBC, FNN or Bloomberg that the Fed is acting to "flood the system with liquidity," which is a commonly used expression, they're talking about M3, which is money available to maintain liquidity of markets, so that positions can be unwound. In other words, people who are on the wrong side of the market can unwind positions in a timely manner.

"Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan also complained recently of the record amount of derivative money, i.e., borrowed money that has been used to purchase speculative long positions in both stocks and commodities, more than $12 trillion worth, which is a record number. This is a number that Greenspan has clearly indicated, including it in his speech at the G8 meeting in Georgia.

"What is new in Greenspan's speech to the G8 is that he mentioned that there was a record trader short position. And he even used the word �smart money� trader short position in the 10-year US Treasury bonds.

"The implications are ominous. There are more U.S. 10-year notes now sold short than there are 10-year notes in the float to cover those positions, and that is an enormous negative implication because the only time that the �smart money� sells U.S. Treasury paper short in such size is when they expect an economic debacle.

"For instance, the day after the Bush-Cheney regime came into office, the �smart money� went short equities and long bonds, knowing that this is the result of building Bushonian budget trade deficits and what impacts that would have on the market. One impact, obviously, is that it would bring down interest rates.
**************
Misetich

An excertp from Al Martin raw - provides ANOTHER version on M3 explosion

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Melting Pot
(06/17/2004; 11:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122195)
Whats up with M3? 990N by John Mackenzie
http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html
Received this message from a member of my investment forum who is currently on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange :

" Only have a minute but, write more later but... The entire S&P price action in the futures is being controlled by one counter party. All the guys hate them: their CME clearing number is 990N and they clear through Gelbel trading.

That one account is solely responsible for the current level of the S&P.

They are the ones that are throwing the S&P up overnight.

Then they are the ones that are sitting on the bid all day long, supporting the market action. The S&P pits have been decimated, absolutely ruined.

There is no volatility, so all the traders have left.
Now the hot pit is the Eurodollar pit. Go figure, that used to be like watching paint dry.

All the traders I have talked to view the market as being rigged.

They keep waiting for the price action to break loose, but it never does. They are stunned by the lack of volatility. And furious. "Time after time after time 990 just sits there on the bid. Don't they ever go away. They just absorb the entire market and then push the price wherever they want it to go.� Gee, I wonder who that counter party is. � They are all terrified of shorting, because every time they do, they get drilled. I thought it was just my systems that weren't working that well, but they are far more dispirited than I. "

Intervention at it's finest, your tax dollars at work, providing the ultimate tax to us all.

We have watched 2000 contract market orders on the Bid at key down levels of - 50 and - 100 on those rare days when 990N decides the program trading will revert to a well defined pattern of "allowable" retracements. The Mini's are being rigged in order to provide "support" for swollen price levels. They have to be for now, as without the daily rigging, "Price" would revert to it's inherent "Value", a disturbing proposition to those benefiting from the financial economy's adolescent denials.

Counterparties provide an important function in any exchange, liquidity. Given the incessant "intervention" by 990N, there is very little liquidity beneath these markets to provide real support.

Posted on behalf of John Mackenzie
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/17/2004; 12:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122197)
Stay tuned for the following contest announcement...


MK & Gandalf the White (6/14/04)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YES, ALL -- Those were the CONTEST trumpets sounding again! A call to contest! A call to contest!

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst when it prints,

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the Table Round knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy? For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.
$10 Liberty gold coin
First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the Essay entry, please indicate in the subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

(Just like that, surrounded by stars)

To qualify for contest entry, the Essay should be fifty or more words in length.

Essay Entry Deadline: NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.
Uruguay gold coin
AND, YES, a Second Contest segment -- a gold price-guessing contest with STATEMENT!!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the settlement of the August futures contract (GC4Q) on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in Dollars and Tenths, posted by 12:00 Midnight Mountain time at the end of day, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your POG Contest entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on WHY you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

The following prizes, donated by Centennial Precious Metals, will be awarded.

For the Essay Contest$10 Liberty gold coin

First prize is a highly collectible United States $10 gold Liberty coin in uncirculated grade, (0.48375oz. net fine gold)

Second prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 net fine gold oz)

Third prize: A one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.silver eagle

===

For the GOLD Price-Guessing Contest
Uruguay gold coin
First prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes shall be one each, a U.S. Silver Eagle.

On with the CONTEST and onward toward the prizes!! Good luck to all!!

For a new window to post your contest entry to the forum, click here. (Post a New Message)

What?! You don't have a password yet??! It couldn't be easier. Please review our Discussion Forum Guidelines page where you may register for your password. COME AND JOIN IN ON THE FUN ALL you lurkers!!

TownCrier
(06/17/2004; 12:58:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122198)
Fed adds reserves
In addition to a $3.75 billion add of fresh money to the nation's banking reserves through overnight repos, the Federal Reserve also today added $7 billion via 14 day repos ----- and by doing so at a stop out rate of 0.99 percent, we still aren't seeing signs that the Fed has it's heart behind a June rate increase to tighten monetary policy. For what it's worth.

R.
TownCrier
(06/17/2004; 15:48:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122199)
Euroland's next mark-to-market gold operation
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlIt is only two weeks away, and gold looks to have taken a nice turn toward upward over the past week.

Standing now at EUR 323, by June 30th will it recover all the intervening ground between this level and the March 31st quarterly benchmark of EUR 346?

Time will tell. At the prevailing euro/dollar exchange rate, a euro price of 346 would correspond to a dollar price of nearly $420. All subject to change, of course. The one thing that we DO know for certain, however, is that the U.S. Treasury (and Fed) will have no part in calling a spade a spade, and will still be carrying the U.S. gold reserves at the historically significant yet arbitrarily low (fictitious) value of $42.22 per ounce.

Take control of your own gold reserves to better contemplate the meaning of market prices and mark-to-market valuation.

R.
Goldendome
(06/17/2004; 15:51:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122200)
How does pumping up M3 protect agains financial failures?
How does increasing the M3 level of money, help protect against a financia debacle, say in the derivatives or interest rate markets?

If someone understands this, I wish they would take some time to explain it here.

I can understand how the Feds buying bonds, for example, from the banks, injects money into the system; but, doesn't a party that is having liquidity problems through being on the wrong side of a trade still have to borrow this money to make up a shortage in a trade, for example? If so, how does making more money available for borrowing to a losing position help the situation?

Perhaps my feable level of understanding in this area is just way away from any understanding on this M3 issue. However, there must be others out here that have fuzzy understanding of just how pumping M3 assists losing transactions become easier to bear.

Thanks, in advance, for any enlightenment.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(06/17/2004; 16:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122201)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---(excerts)---

COMEX gold rose 1.1 percent on Thursday as funds bought one of few assets that would retain value amid mounting inflation pressures and provide a financial safe haven amid escalating guerrilla attacks in Iraq before the June 30 U.S. handover of power to an Iraqi interim government.

Still, traders said they would remain cautious on gold's outlook after recent declines until it can regain a foothold above $390 an ounce.

August gold rose $4.30 to settle at $389.50 an ounce. It bottomed at $384.40 overnight and hit $389.90 in the wake of a U.S. Labor Department report showing the May producer price index went up 0.8 percent, exceeding the expected 0.6 percent rise.

-----(see url for access to full news and global headlines)-----
TheJuniorMiner
(06/17/2004; 16:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122202)
Goldendome

I'll take a simplistic shot at this and lets see what some of the greater minds have to comment as reading some the writing here reminds me of economics class in college.

Is it perhaps the Fed has its own agenda. I for one think that the rise in M3 is the Fed buying bonds to keep interest rates from getting out of hand. This does put money into the system and lessens its cost. Protecting rates affects the models that the derivative traders use and it may be this is where they are being helped the most.

Borrowing short and going long was a big problem for banks and S&L's in the late 70's early 80's. Too many out there have again, borrowed short and gone long.

I think the fed is pissing the dollar away to stave off some tough choices for financial institutions and the American public and there seems to be no end in sight.

Glenn
Goldendome
(06/17/2004; 16:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122203)
"All that glitters isnot......."

I had a short but interesting talk with a supervisory sales person for a grocery supplier today, who I have known for a number of years; and, who always seems to have a Midas touch when it comes to the markets.

In short: He told me that he had placed a substantial sum of money with a large life insurance company- that his wife had inherited. And, that last year he had made $40,000.00 with this move.

But (and here's where it gets interesting and fishy) he went on to tell me that this insurance company guaranteed (Guaranteed) that he would never make less than 10% yearly on that money! Well�how do they do that? I asked, in an interest rate environment like this?

He didn't know and really didn't care. He just knew that they guaranteed it!

Myself,I know that it's all a paper environment that they're in, but didn't want to raise any issues about the security of the investments�and the fact that in the wrong situation, the company might find it difficult to even get his principal back to him�but, I knew that discussion would be a fruitless errand in the face of the performance thus far.

He also asked what I was doing. Oh-- I said-- I have a money market fund that when the Gold market declines, I convert some into a gold shares mutual fund�sell some when they go up and then repeat the process-- and I then I buy some gold coins with other savings.

He looked at me intently, "Ohhhh?!" he stated, in a manner that told me, that he had heard of us, but thought that we had all gone extinct about 20 years ago!

I had a short but interesting talk with a supervisory sales person for a grocery supplier today, who I have known for a number of years; and, who always seems to have a Midas touch when it comes to the markets.

In short: He told me that he had placed a substantial sum of money with a large life insurance company- that his wife had inherited. And, that last year he had made $40,000.00 with this move.

But (and here's where it gets interesting and fishy) he went on to tell me that this insurance company guaranteed (Guaranteed) that he would never make less than 10% yearly on that money! Well�how do they do that? I asked, in an interest rate environment like this?

He didn't know and really didn't care. He just knew that they guaranteed it!

Myself,I know that it's all a paper environment that they're in, but didn't want to raise any issues about the security of the investments�and the fact that in the wrong situation, the company might find it difficult to even get his principal back to him�but, I knew that discussion would be a fruitless errand in the face of the performance thus far.

He also asked what I was doing. Oh-- I said-- I have a money market fund that when the Gold market declines, I convert some into a gold shares mutual fund�sell some when they go up and then repeat the process-- and I then I buy some gold coins with other savings.

He looked at me intently, "Ohhhh?!" he stated, in a manner that told me, that he had heard of us, but thought that we had all gone extinct about 20 years ago!

I had a short but interesting talk with a supervisory sales person for a grocery supplier today, who I have known for a number of years; and, who always seems to have a Midas touch when it comes to the markets.

In short: He told me that he had placed a substantial sum of money with a large life insurance company- that his wife had inherited. And, that last year he had made $40,000.00 with this move.

But (and here's where it gets interesting and fishy) he went on to tell me that this insurance company guaranteed (Guaranteed) that he would never make less than 10% yearly on that money! Well�how do they do that? I asked, in an interest rate environment like this?

He didn't know and really didn't care. He just knew that they guaranteed it!

Myself,I know that it's all a paper environment that they're in, but didn't want to raise any issues about the security of the investments�and the fact that in the wrong situation, the company might find it difficult to even get his principal back to him�but, I knew that discussion would be a fruitless errand in the face of the performance thus far.

He also asked what I was doing. Oh-- I said-- I have a money market fund that when the Gold market declines, I convert some into a gold shares mutual fund�sell some when they go up and then repeat the process-- and I then I buy some gold coins with other savings.

He looked at me intently, "Ohhhh?!" he stated, in a manner that told me, that he had heard of us, but thought that we had all gone extinct about 20 years ago!

I had a short but interesting talk with a supervisory sales person for a grocery supplier today, who I have known for a number of years; and, who always seems to have a Midas touch when it comes to the markets.

In short: He told me that he had placed a substantial sum of money with a large life insurance company- that his wife had inherited. And, that last year he had made $40,000.00 with this move.

But (and here's where it gets interesting and fishy) he went on to tell me that this insurance company guaranteed (Guaranteed) that he would never make less than 10% yearly on that money! Well�how do they do that? I asked, in an interest rate environment like this?

He didn't know and really didn't care. He just knew that they guaranteed it!

Myself,I know that it's all a paper environment that they're in, but didn't want to raise any issues about the security of the investments�and the fact that in the wrong situation, the company might find it difficult to even get his principal back to him�but, I knew that discussion would be a fruitless errand in the face of the performance thus far.

He also asked what I was doing. Oh-- I said-- I have a money market fund that when the Gold market declines, I convert some into a gold shares mutual fund�sell some when they go up and then repeat the process-- and I then I buy some gold coins with other savings.

He looked at me intently, "Ohhhh?!" he stated, in a manner that told me, that he had heard of us, but thought that we had all gone extinct about 20 years ago!

Goldendome
(06/17/2004; 16:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122204)
Sorry
Wow! Sorry for the triple post something happend on a transfer from Word!
TheJuniorMiner
(06/17/2004; 16:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 122205)
Guarantee?

My beliefe is that anyone that guarntees you an investment will return a specific number is lying.

Someday this person will come to understand that.
Cytek
(06/17/2004; 20:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122206)
@ Melting Pot - re:990N
http://worldvisionportal.org/wvpforum/viewtopic.php?t=204I am checking with my friend who is a futures trader on the validity of "990N' . It could be these boys.

There are just four people who control all of the U.S. markets through their use of dangerous and explosive DERIVATIVES. They are risking the assets and retirement funds of all Americans. Because of their manipulations, especially since 2001, U.S. financial markets are now based on the gambling whims of a special fraternity of Federal Government DERIVATIVE dealers.

At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Jan 29-30, 2002, the Federal Reserve System (Greenspan) openly discussed the use of "unconventional methods" to stimulate the economy. Recently, the Financial Times of London quoted an anonymous U.S. Fed official who stated that one of the extraordinary measures "considered" in January 2004 was "buying U.S. equities".

These gambling interventions by the "Four Financial Dictators" have successfully brought the markets back each time... despite the inflated financial realities that existed. The purchase of these gambling DERIVATIVES at a great loss have transformed each market crisis into a rally. By manipulating the markets in this way, they have further inflated the highly overvalued market indexes.

Perhaps Americans can now understand why the major U.S. banks, such as JP Morgan, are holding TRILLIONS of gambling derivatives on their books as the PPT group of four use them to rig the markets. Sooner or later, these market "fixes" will no longer hold the bubble from bursting.

Thus, we have witnessed the creation and growth of the financial bubble that is on the brink of explosion... and we know who rigs and controls the markets to create this inflated bubble of gambling debt.

Paper Stocks Rise as Metals Loose - PTT Rigging is Obvious

In the same motus opperandi, the PPT group of 4 are currently buying metals futures (DERIVATIVES) in great amounts on the New York and Chicago exchanges. For the past two weeks, they have created a loss in silver and gold indexes by purchasing (at U.S. taxpayer's expense) large gambling bets (derivatives) against the true value of intrinsic metals.

The result is that they have rigged the value of metals to discourage investors from purchasing gold and silver instead of U.S. Federal Reserve Notes. This is a measure by the PPT to plug a large hole in the bursting dam of the financial bubble, but even Hans Brinker cannot stop this leak.

The bottom line? Stick with history and prepare for the financial explosion. When the bubble deflates and pops, economic deflation will control our daily lives. The PPT cannot continue to spend what it doesn't have. The retirement funds they are "borrowing" from are already exhausted. Get yourself some gold and silver... it will buy your bread to survive in the coming future... while paper Federal Reserve Notes will burn in your furnace to heat your homes.



Gandalf the White
(06/17/2004; 21:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122207)
$$$$$$$$$$$$399.0$$$$$$$$$
OK OK OK !!!
WHY has EVERYONE been awaiting my POG CONTEST entry ?
Well here you have it !
NOW, Let's start filling in the BLANK spots in the forcoming ENRTY LISTING !!
Enter EARLY, Enter OFTE--- OOPS that was Chicago -- sorry!
---
WHY, do I see $399.9 you ask ?
BECAUSE the Crystal Ball is JUMPING Up and back DOWN again and that seems to be a HAPPY Medium (or is should that be an average ?)
JUMP SPOT, JUMP !!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/17/2004; 21:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122208)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA POG Contest UPDATE !!
ENTRY LISTING for the POG Settlement GUESSING Contest !
Listed in order of DECREASING values !
===

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Topaz (6/15/04; 13:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122113)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (6/15/04; 12:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122109)
$$$$ $399.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (06/17/04; 21:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122207)

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Rimh (06/16/04; 12:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 122156)

$$$$ $385.7 $$$$ slingshot (06/17/04; 03:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 122183)
===
I predict that an EARLY entry shall be a WINNER !!!!
<;-)
NTgeo
(06/17/2004; 21:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122209)
*****The end of cheap oil*****
The proposition to be discussed is what will be the effect of higher oil prices on the US and World economies, and on the price of oil. Perhaps a more important question is what will the increasing scarcity of oil reserves mean for the world economic order. None of the major world economies have sufficient indigenous oil reserves to satisfy their needs. They will need to import a growing portion of their requirements. The new economic powerhouses of India and China will require increasing amounts of imported oil and will have to source this resource from oil producing regions in competition with the US, Japan and Europe. A lot of smaller poorer countries are going to suffer from the higher prices and reduced availability of oil. This will cause increasing resentment against the larger richer countries. Although there may be some reduction in oil demand in the developed world as prices rise with the introduction of fuel-cell and solar powered vehicles, in the developing world it is doubtful whether any significant substitution will occur.

The oil-rich countries will be under great pressure from the competing blocs for their oil production. One can envisage scenarios where bilateral agreements may occur between countries to tie-up oil production. As the supply of oil gets tighter wars may be fought over significant oil reserves which are located in border zones. Economic warfare may also be fought to force oil producing countries to supply certain countries.

The higher oil prices will cause increased research into alternatives to oil. Further success in developing fuel cell and solar technology may lead to the development of greener vehicles.

On the economic front the rising oil prices will lead to increased price inflation in all countries. This will cause the price of gold to rise.
NTgeo
(06/17/2004; 21:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122210)
$$$$$395.5$$$$$
It is anyone's guess what the $US price of gold will do in the short term! It has been going up and down like a yo-yo over the last few weeks. From an Australian point of view it is interesting that the $A gold price has been rising fairly consistently over the last couple of months.
Smeagol
(06/17/2004; 22:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122211)
$$$$ 392.4 $$$$
Ssince It seems to be on a sshort leash recently, and that's no sslight againsst the Wizard's Hounds, mind you, precious, we doesn't think It will be 'allowed' to do much between now and the Contesst deadline. Let the puppeteers play... eventually It will turn on them, and the Hounds will feasst... meanwhile, as long as It is affordably priced, we will keep ssaving and buying It...

one ounce at a time...one ounce at a time...one ounce at a time...

S.

Smeagol
(06/17/2004; 22:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122212)
Why, Sir Black Blade?
Sir Black Blade, from a few days ago - "Too bad we can't get some of those Harmony Gold 10 tael poured bars without Customs poking their nose in and tacking on taxes. It would be nice if our host would be able to snag those without problem but they are illegal even for South Africans to own (though they can buy Krugerands)."

Smeagol - Why is one form of It allowed in, and another not??... after all, It is It, isn't it?

S.
Smeagol
(06/18/2004; 00:15:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122213)
as long as we can...
While Plungeteers play
we trades their fiat for It
one ounce at a time

S.
Smeagol
(06/18/2004; 00:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122214)
As Sir Town Crier once ssaid, "You can do this."
sss...we have ssearched Masster's lore-books and found that 'haiku' is not an Orc-word...so we are not susspicious of it anymore...thiss is good, because we are taking a liking to it... perhaps one day they'll do a Hai-Ku Price-Guessing Contesst, eh, precious?...sss...until then,...(scribble)...hmm...(scribble)...

Fiat hypnosis.
Svengali would be jealous!
Gold sees right through it.
-----
"I must say, that forum has done more for Gollum's language skills in a matter of months than all the years he's been with us. Look, he's worn out my dictionary!" -F.B.
-----
Siren song of wealth,
Gold in lucid belcanto
steers us round the bergs
-----
"Hmph! He's sneaky and cunning; now he's thinking and writing? More fodder for mischief, I'd say." -Sam
-----
Picking the pocket
of the fat Samwise hobbit
...but we gives It back.

(cackle)
S.
Spartacus
(06/18/2004; 03:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122215)
Iraq: Credibility at breaking point
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/FF18Aa01.html
WASHINGTON -- In a direct challenge to recent assertions by both President George W Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, the special bipartisan commission investigating the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against New York and Washington has found "no credible evidence" of any operational link between Iraq and al-Qaeda. --
misetich
(06/18/2004; 03:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122216)
Pensions Face Huge Asset Gap - Plans Underfunded by Hundreds of Billions
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50750-2004Jun17.htmlSnip:

More than 1,000 large private pension plans, many in the airline and steel industries, were underfunded by an aggregate of $278.6 billion at the end of last year, the government's pension insurance agency said yesterday
.................
The figures are actually a slight improvement over the situation at the end of 2002, when underfunding stood at $305.9 billion. But they stand in sharp contrast to 1999, when 166 plans were underfunded by a total of $18.4 billion.

The underfunded plans had $641.8 billion in assets to cover $920.3 billion in liabilities, for an average funded ratio of less than 70 percent
.......................
***************
Misetich

The euphoria of the SM bubblemania of the late 90's wherein fund managers changed their asset allocations to abhorrent levels of risk exposure is still haunting as trillions of perceived value disappeared

The fear of Asset Deflation is the Feds nightmare

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/18/2004; 04:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122217)
Senate Approves Greenspan Term
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/18/business/18greenspan.htmlSnip:

WASHINGTON, June 17 (AP) - The Senate late Thursday approved President Bush's nomination of Alan Greenspan to serve a fifth term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The approval came on a voice vote.

It came hours after the Senate Banking Committee endorsed the nomination, with only Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, voting against.
..............
Friends say Mr. Greenspan has told them he plans to serve less than half of the new four-year term, choosing to retire on Jan. 31, 2006, when his separate 14-year term as a Fed board member is to end. That decision would give the next president the chance to select Mr. Greenspan's successor.

Senator Bunning said he opposed the nomination because he believed that Mr. Greenspan did not move quickly enough to lower interest rates in 1992 and 2000. Senator Bunning also said he objected to Mr. Greenspan's voicing opinions on subjects outside of the Fed's jurisdiction, like tax and budget issues.
....................
***************
Misetich

...keeping on playing the skipper asks the band...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Topaz
(06/18/2004; 04:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122219)
alt currency Gold on a run.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC1%21&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Gold (paper) showing continued strength in ALL currencies whilst Bonds/$/Oil are really getting out of kilter which, I might add is in keeping with our collapse scenario.

A rate cut "must" be high on the agenda before Jun 30 methinks.

The problem is that, having dredged the depths, the market seems now adamant a move to Cash is apriori so a lower rate will only forestall the inevitable.

We watch in trepidation!
Topaz
(06/18/2004; 05:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122220)
out of sync Bonds/Dollar.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=TNXY&s=CL1%21&s=DX1%21&s=GC1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWBonds/DX "really" out on a limb here and they've even run Gold to try and hose down the Dollar.

misetich
(06/18/2004; 05:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122221)
Oil Rises on Iraq, Norway Outages
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20040618/bs_nm/markets_oil_dcSnip:

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices pushed to their highest levels in 10 days on Friday after export outages in Iraq (news - web sites) and Norway spurred hedge funds to plough money back into the market, traders said.
....................
But simmering fears over Middle East oil security amid increasing violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia were revived this week by a trio of pipeline sabotage attacks that brought Iraq's 1.6-1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of exports to a halt.
Oil officials in the country said they hoped to resume limited supplies of around 700,000 bpd quickly, but repairs continued on Friday, sources said.
.....................
Adding additional stress to an already taut global supply chain, 200 Norwegian oil workers went on strike over pay Friday, forcing oil companies there to begin shutting in nearly 400,000 bpd -- or 13 percent -- of output from the world's third-biggest exporter.
......................
GASOLINE WORRIES REVIVED

The latest gains were also fueled by an unplanned shutdown at a gasoline-producing unit at ExxonMobil Corp's 538,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Baytown, Texas, which raised fears of a summer supply crunch during peak holiday season.
*********************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues....its effects/impacts are enormous and being underestimated by the markets

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Ned
(06/18/2004; 05:14:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122222)
Could be an interesting day....................
.....silver trying to clear 6 beans.....$400 POG today?
misetich
(06/18/2004; 05:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122224)
German Producer Prices Rose for Fourth Month in May
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aYPCRWDicaIw&refer=germanySnip:

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Producer prices in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose for a fourth month in May as costs for energy and raw materials increased.

Prices for goods ranging from toys to machine tools rose 0.5 percent from April, when they increased 0.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists expected a gain of 0.4 percent, the median of 24 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year ago, prices increased 1.6 percent
.....................
ThyssenKrupp said on Tuesday it would increase prices in July more than it said earlier as demand in Asia grows. Steel prices are currently at the highest levels since 1989. In May, rolled steel prices rose 1.4 percent from April and are 17.6 percent higher than prices a year ago, the Statistics Office reported.

Fuel prices rose 11.6 percent from a year ago, the Statistics Office said. Excluding energy, producer price inflation would have been 1 percent, the Statistics Office said.
****************
Misetich

CHINA's growth is fuelling price inflation worldwide - The G7 have their hands full in finding equilibrium in an out-of-sync global economy

A rebound in the US $ creates inflationary problems in EU ( even the heavily massaged CPI is above the 2% (?!) treshold running at 2 1/2% - thus its high unlikely the US $ will get any higher than the recent high levels

On the other hand, the downside risks for the US $ are rising as price inflation gathers steam slowing consumer spending and the US economy

...and lets not forget, Sir Greenspan recent testimony on worries of geopolitical events

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/18/2004; 05:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122225)
S. Korea's Gold Trade Rises Explosively in Jan.-May Period
http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20040618/300500000020040618164159E0.htmlSnip:

SEOUL, June 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's gold trade volume has soared so far this year, with its gold exports in the first five months of the year jumping 332.2 percent from a year earlier, the Korea Customs Office said Friday.

The country's gold imports during the cited period leaped 238.4 percent.
**************
Misetich

Gold demand is zooming upward - production declining -

more on production decline later....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(06/18/2004; 05:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122226)
"They" mobilized Jim Rogers....again !
For what ? To tell everybody...again... that CB ARE SELLING GOLD ! Jim repeated for the umptieth time that one should invest in basic commodities...that will multiplie in prices, because the dollar is in the process of becoming a shadow of itself.

BUT,...

Jim has Gold in possession,...for his one year old kid, already speaking mandarin !!!
Jim, nevertheless promotes lead and zinc...! Thanks, again Jim.

WHY does Jim say that one should get out of the dollar and that the CBs are selling their second biggest reserve, Gold !? Jim finds it obvious that CBs are idiots...Gold will "under"-perform other commidities...but his baby child has been accumulating Gold and stored it in Swiss vaults !

Jesus !

In the mean time, Randy has been hammering on that same euro-GOLDnail, again...just in time and with the correct insight. The euro-price for Physical Gold is rising (adjusting). Who is "pricing" the metal...METAL !? EEEEEECCCCCCBBBBBIIIIIIISSSSSSS !
Thanks Randy. Hope that more and more Gold folks are getting the real message, at last.
misetich
(06/18/2004; 06:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122227)
South African gold production tumbles
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/329795.htmSnip:

South Africa's bloodied gold industry showed the extent of its decline, as production numbers for the first quarter hit lows last seen almost a decade ago.

Gold production decreased by 8.3 percent to 84,616.5 kilograms in the first quarter compared to 92,314.6 kilograms produced in the same quarter last year. On an annualised basis, that would leave South Africa producing only 338 tonnes of gold this year, or only 13 percent of last year's global production. That's a long way down from the 375.8 tonnes produced last year and further still from the 425 tonnes of gold mined in 1999.
.......................
***************
Misetich

The strength of the rand is cites as a reason for declining production -

In Australia the reason for declining production was blamed on the weather...

and ANOTHER golden nugget

Barrick Gold Production 10% lower in 2004

NEW YORK -- Barrick Gold's [ABX] low-profile chief executive, Greg Wilkins, today told attendees of the Merrill Lynch mining conference in Toronto that production will be 10% lower in 2004. A fund manager with intimate knowledge of Goldstrike describes it as Barrick's flagship asset and says the trends have been disturbing for several years. Grade has been falling precipitously, aggravated by lower recoveries that resulted in steadily declining gold output.
................

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(06/18/2004; 07:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122228)
Current Account Gap Hits Record
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=QW5MCC2QTQPTYCRBAEOCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=5457818Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit widened more than expected in the first three months of 2004 to a new record, pushed by the growing gap between imports and exports, government data showed on Friday.

The larger-than-expected gap renewed downward pressure on the dollar in early trading against the euro, and boosted gold prices as investors turned to the metal as a safe haven.

The gap in the current account balance, the broadest measure of the nation's trade with the rest of the world, increased to $144.9 billion in the first quarter from a revised $127.0 billion in the last three months of 2003, the Commerce Department said.

"It is a very large number, another record ... most of the deepening in this did come from the deterioration of the goods and services balance," said Jason Bonanca, foreign exchange analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the funding gap to widen to $141.0 billion in the first quarter. Fourth quarter 2003 was initially reported at $127.5 billion.

The gap between goods imports and exports widened to $150.8 billion in the first quarter, from $139.4 billion in the fourth quarter as the U.S. economy picked up steam, increasing demand for both foreign and domestic goods.

The current account deficit has been blamed for weakening the dollar against other currencies, as Americans import more than they export and borrow from the rest of the world to make up for the shortfall in their domestic savings.

Much of this gap has been filled by official foreign purchases of U.S. government bonds, as countries like China and Japan snapped up dollar-denominated assets during massive intervention campaigns to weaken their currencies against the U.S. currency.

Official foreign purchases of U.S. assets rose $125.2 billion in the first
****************
Misetich

Up up and away - the troika of deficits keeps on ballooning upward...

Sir Greenspan, is very confident, waiting for the other shoe to fall, as he expects capital spending to pick up speed....

....while he's is waiting - economic imbalances continue to accelerate and The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is just getting underway...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 09:17:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122229)
WOWSERS -- Sir Smeagol -- did you overfeed the dogs ?
THERE goes the $6. daily limit !
Can FREE GOLD be far away ?
<;-)
===
BTW, Sir Smeagol ---
The "H" in Hobbit is ALWAYS capitalized !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 09:41:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122230)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA POG Contest UPDATE !!

LISTING of ENTRIES for the POG Settlement GUESSING Contest as of Friday 6/18/04 at 09:45 Denver time!


Listed in order of DECREASING values !
===

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Topaz (6/15/04; 13:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122113)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (6/15/04; 12:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122109)

$$$$ $399.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (06/17/04; 21:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122207)

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Rimh (06/16/04; 12:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 122156)

$$$$ $395.5 $$$$ NTgeo (06/17/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122210)

$$$$ $392.4 $$$$ Smeagol (06/17/04; 22:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122211)

$$$$ $385.7 $$$$ slingshot (06/17/04; 03:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 122183)
===
I predicted that an EARLY entry shall be a WINNER !!!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 09:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122231)
OOPS -- Sorry about that time ! -- my sundial watch is FAST again !
<;-)
Belgian
(06/18/2004; 11:15:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122232)
Iran is furious.....
...because the EU produced a negative report on the nuclear matters. This might have consequences for euro-support by ME-oil !? Result : Higher �-POO is hello infla and byby relative price-stability.
Blair and the Poles (read US-proxies) are opposing the France-Belgian-Germany, trio...today in Brussels. Bottomline remains the dollar < > euro, struggle, behind all this political yadayada. Blair (The City) knows (now) that the Maastricht Treaty allows that by jan.2002, all contracts are to be converted into euro and new contracts must be denominated in euro...
Putin is adding to the embroglio with his recent statements about 9/11 intelligence...etc...etc...

The today's "credit societies" (their politicians) are feeling the pinch of the building euro-International monetary system. The euro (concept)(ECB-policies) IS "impacting" the dollar-policies, increasingly...regardless of the political exhuberations. Spain warns about the disturbing risk of dollar instability !

But don't forget that the change in status of US-goldreserves (deep storage) was ment to make a change of Gold-ownership, possible. Maybe J.Rogers knows about this and that's why he alluded to CB's goldsales in "general" terms, without untaffeling the truths behind it.

Today, the Chinese confirmed (Brussels) their growing "special" relationship with the EU !!! Economically (bilateral trade) and monetary (euro-concept) as well. Simply further confirmation of what A/FOA have been projecting, 3 years ago, already.

Always keep in mind that a rising POG, supports the euro-system ...euro enhancement...the next reserve system !!!

Another goldmarket is in the labor-room, almost ready to give birth.

Leave credit-gold for what it is and get the tangible yellow for what it always was. Don't let paper rule your "properties" ! Jim Rogers had another small task to perform for his hiring price...Western stockmarkets will look VERY ugly in '05 and '06 ! Hey, h's providing inside information...!? His kid is already in the possession of the most universal tradable wealth tangible...
Is this one year old child already giving investment advise...? Noooooooooooo !
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/18/2004; 11:38:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122233)
We can do better than a free lunch... here's an offer for gold!

Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YES, ALL -- Those were the CONTEST trumpets sounding again! A call to contest! A call to contest!

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst when it prints,

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the Table Round knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy? For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.
$10 Liberty gold coin
First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the Essay entry, please indicate in the subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

(Just like that, surrounded by stars)

To qualify for contest entry, the Essay should be fifty or more words in length.

Essay Entry Deadline: NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.
Uruguay gold coin
AND, YES, a Second Contest segment -- a gold price-guessing contest with STATEMENT!!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the settlement of the August futures contract (GC4Q) on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in Dollars and Tenths, posted by 12:00 Midnight Mountain time at the end of day, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your POG Contest entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on WHY you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

The following prizes, donated by Centennial Precious Metals, will be awarded.

For the Essay Contest$10 Liberty gold coin

First prize is a highly collectible United States $10 gold Liberty coin in uncirculated grade, (0.48375oz. net fine gold)

Second prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 net fine gold oz)

Third prize: A one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.silver eagle

===

For the GOLD Price-Guessing Contest
Uruguay gold coin
First prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes shall be one each, a U.S. Silver Eagle.

On with the CONTEST and onward toward the prizes!! Good luck to all!!

For a new window to post your contest entry to the forum, click here. (Post a New Message)

What?! You don't have a password yet??! It couldn't be easier. Please review our Discussion Forum Guidelines page where you may register for your password. COME AND JOIN IN ON THE FUN ALL you lurkers!!

TownCrier
(06/18/2004; 12:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 122234)
Contest prizes: Did you know...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.htmlDid you know that the first place U.S. Liberty gold coin is worth well over $200, and that the other prize, the Uruguan gold coin is valued above $100?

Where else are you seeing this level of generosity and good will these days?

Only at the USAGOLD Forum, where your opinions and commentaries are valued most highly of all. It is Centennial's goal to provide you with the professional service you deserve. Please bear them first in mind whenever you or a friend or family member are in the market for gold.

R.
SteveH
(06/18/2004; 13:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122235)
Unintended Consequences of Bankrupting USSR
Perhaps one of the uninteneded consquences of outspending the USSR on national defense was to show that a country could be bankrupted or caused to be bankrupted. Once this concept or notion was out in the open, it seems that it may have become a tool of entities who are into such shenanigans. The adage be careful what you sow comes to mind.

Federal_Reserves
(06/18/2004; 13:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122236)
Trade wars
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20040618/bs_nm/trade_china_usa_dcCheap Imports from China hammered with huge penalty.
TownCrier
(06/18/2004; 14:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122237)
Barclays new kid on the block -- "the (London) fix is in"
According to an OsterDowJones news dispatch, in its latest bimonthly report, in one breath Barclays says:

(excerpt)
There is still a very strong case for investors to diversify into commodities, as the current positive phase is likely to persist longer than in previous cycles...... From a macro perspective, commodities are approaching that phase of the global economic cycle when the asset class should be at its most attractive....... The threat of rising inflation, leading to higher interest rates and a downgrading of prospects in equity and bond markets is already evident in these sectors' "relatively modest returns" compared with the commodity sector... As for base metals, raw material is still exceptionally tight and even though this tightness may ease, metal output isn't likely to catch up with demand growth for some time to come... (end)

But in its final breath, Barclays (the newest addition to the team of bullion bankers establishing the twice-daily London Gold Fix) singles out gold, and has this to say:

(excerpt)
Turning to gold, Barclays advised that "it is time to play gold from the short side at least until the market view of inflation threat is raised." Gold won't benefit from its perceived role as an inflation hedge until the U.S.' consumer price index rises above 4%, it said. (end)

Huh??? Gold won't perform until CPI hits 4 percent? What, then, would Barclays make of gold's rise (absent CPI support during this time) from its recent depths of $250?

Seems to me the only "performance" that Barclays may be doubting is that of its Bullion Market Association's paperized integrity in the face of growing inclinations for investors to take chips of scarce gold off the community banking table.

The apparent taint of a vested interest doesn't get much more obvious than in the dual outlook they've presented regarding inflation, and further, to say nothing about gold's newly emerging role (mark-to-market) as king reserve asset in central bank coffers intended to pick up the slack of their dollar-stuffed coffins.

R.
TownCrier
(06/18/2004; 14:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122238)
Speaking of bullion banks, an excerpt from today's DMR...
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html"The U.S. dollar index slid to seven-day lows Friday as news that the U.S. current account deficit exceeded Wall Street expectations kept potential buyers sidelined and spurred investor selling before the weekend.

"At the same time, dollar alternatives such as gold drew investor interest and nosed to higher levels.

"Chart and momentum fund buyers then also entered the fray as gold prices pushed past previous highs and targeted resistance levels above.

"However, by midmorning some bullion bank sales into gold's strength tempered the ascent somewhat..."
------

Those pesky critters... always looking out for Number One. Can you empathize with their plight? The more you know, the more you likely say, "No," and would have them throw in the towel already. But in the end, it will probably be agreed, that smooth transitions are best for us all.

R.
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 14:49:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122239)
THERE they are !!! THREE new little Green "X"s !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GThe Gold P&F Chart should give all you "slow" POG CONTEST entrants an idea of which number to choose !
<;-)
MK
(06/18/2004; 17:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122240)
Gandalf
Have you noticed that gold does wondrous things whenever we have these contests.
Life,Liberty,Property
(06/18/2004; 17:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122241)
$$$$$$$$$385.50$$$$$$$$$$
My reasoning behind $385.50 POG? Besides normal market forces, such as advances and profit taking, the big players will want to continue to keep it low. I do expect it to peak at $403 or so first, but end week will be lower as the machinery to keep people in the dark crank out the paper and propaganda. It isn't hard and still doesn't take much effort. Many very intelligent people still chuckle and shake their heads when I mention owning gold. At least my mother listened to me and took my advice to invest some of her money in some Alexander ruobles from this site. Hopefully others will come around before too late.
Golden Lionheart
(06/18/2004; 18:10:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122242)
The Chart
Sir Gandalf, I looked at the chart. To me its looks like a classic head and shoulders pattern so I expect the next move to be down to around $378. Hope I am wrong.
Golden Lionheart
(06/18/2004; 18:15:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122243)
$$$$$$386$$$$$4
I have been charting gold since 1960 and my failing eyesight sees gold lower in the short term before a sustained rise starting probably in late August.
TownCrier
(06/18/2004; 18:23:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122244)
Madrid 14 June Conference: "Dollars, Debt and Deficits - 60 Years after Bretton Woods"
http://www.ecb.int/key/04/sp040614en.htmDinner speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB -- "The International Financial Architecture - Where do we stand?"

Highlights:

It is a great pleasure to be here in Madrid at the invitation of the Banco de Espa--a and the International Monetary Fund. The 60th anniversary of the Bretton Woods institutions is indeed an important opportunity to take stock of key events, developments and issues that have shaped and are shaping the international financial system....

Let me briefly look at the changes to the international financial architecture over time. The key aim of today's policy makers has not changed compared to those at the Bretton Woods times � it has been, and still is, global prosperity and stability � but the environment in which we are acting has changed profoundly. The founders of the IMF and the World Bank wanted to create institutions that prevent countries from falling back into autarky and protectionism and that help them to raise growth and increase stability in a world of fixed exchange rates with still a large degree of capital controls.

Today we are striving for stability of the international financial system in a world of free capital flows with a growing importance of private flows and increasing trade and financial integration. Among the major factors that we have to take into account, I would like to mention in particular:

**The financial globalisation phenomenon: capital market liberalisation, both domestically and internationally, technological advances and buoyant financial innovations have contributed to set up a totally unknown degree of financial globalisation � with great benefits, but also new risks.

**The policy responsibility which still lies mainly with sovereign states; thus, the challenge is to promote global financial stability very largely through national actions enlightened and co-ordinated through a larger degree of intimate international co-operation.

**A very large consensus on giving the private sector and markets a central role on the one hand, and relying upon sound public institutions to provide market participants with the appropriate environment on the other hand. This shift from direct public involvement to private activities is particular striking when looking at financial flows to emerging markets: in the 1980s, official flows were dominant, reaching on average over 60% of total flows to emerging markets. By contrast, the 1990s saw a dramatic increase in private flows, which on average accounted for around 85% (in the period from 1990 until 2003). Equally striking is the shift from bank loans to negotiable securities as the major financing tool for the developing countries.

**The integration of the European Union, reinforced with the introduction of the euro, has increased the economic, monetary and financial stability of a region that constitutes today the world's largest trading partner and the second largest economy. The EU has also been crucial in anchoring the transition process in central and eastern Europe, and in fostering stability and prosperity in this region.


The dynamics of today's world call for continued adjustment at a global level. New challenges have been added to existing ones, such as poverty reduction. New actors gained prominence on the international scene, with developing and emerging markets becoming progressively full participants in the globalised economy. The financial crises of the 1980s and the 1990s, characterised by large and sudden private financial flow reversals, marked by a very powerful contagion phenomenon and demonstrating some of the potential and actual vulnerabilities of the newly globalised financial system, led to an ambitious reform agenda to strengthen the international financial architecture.

Let me focus on the lessons from the crises in the 1990s and the ensuing work on the international financial architecture. ...... Work was stepped up in the aftermath of the Asian crises, which revealed further vulnerabilities in national and international financial systems. But most importantly, the crises in the later 1990s showed that the systemic changes in the world's financial markets required systematic changes in the policy framework that underlies the international financial system....

The existing international financial institutions, in particular the IMF, the World Bank and the BIS maintained their central role in the system. But they were subject to several changes to sharpen their respective focus....

Overall, improving the governance of the international institutions and optimising the work of the informal groupings will always remain a moving target given that these entities permanently will have to adapt to a changing environment. However, with the changes introduced in the recent years, the foundations of the international financial system have been strengthened considerably....

The second area I would like to highlight regards the work to enhance transparency and promote best practices, where significant progress has been achieved in a number of fields. ..... I consider that the progress made in the field of transparency after the Asian Crisis is one of the main explanations for the absence of contagion in the emerging world when the Argentine crisis erupted.

Transparency in the private sector is also crucial for well-functioning international financial markets. ...... The banking sector will particularly be affected through the proposed valuation rules for financial instruments and through the rules on disclosure.

The ECB has a strong interest in this debate mainly from its focus on contributing to the maintenance of financial stability. Thus, the primary objective of this reform has our full support as it aims to minimise the gap between the reported information and the true risk profile of a company. ......some proposals have given rise to concerns also within the ECB. In particular, those proposals relating to an extensive use of fair values raised concerns about the possible adverse implications on the volatility of bank income and, eventually, on bank behaviour and on financial stability. As a consequence, the ECB contributed to this debate, highlighting the concerns and showing their relevance. The more recent proposals from the IASB moved into the direction of limiting the use of fair values for those items that can be reliably measured. The revised proposals should help to avoid undesirable consequences such as an artificial increase in income volatility. At the current juncture, the ECB is carrying out an exercise to check the likely impact of the new standard....

The ECB was also among the first to point out the possible macro-financial implications of any banking prudential scheme, highlighting the potential procyclical effects that might be induced by any framework relying on a comprehensive real time risk analysis. These concerns have been taken into account in the final version of the new framework which aims at being neutral over the cycle. Looking ahead, we have to recognise that we stand at the beginning of the road....

......It is clear that crisis prevention must remain the key area of all our efforts. Crises are costly for the countries concerned and also for the international system. Given the increasing economic and financial importance of emerging markets, major events in these countries are bound to have spill-over effects to the rest of the world....

Closing remarks

We have the unique chance of living in a world which is full of opportunities, very inspiring and very complex, very rewarding and very demanding, full of chances and of risks. We have all been the witness of two incredible transformations of the global economy over the last twenty five years.

The technological surge which has permitted to compute and to transfer information at practically no cost.
The globalisation process which aims at connecting all economies and finances of the world within the same market-economy based framework.

So that goods, services, capital, technologies, concepts, ideas are moving very rapidly or even instantaneously all over the globe, expanding considerably, in quality and in quantity, the domain of the Ricardian comparative advantage...... These are great successes of today's economic world of which global finance, mirror-image of a global economy, is both the emblem and the very powerful tool. But there is no economic success without risks.

We have been living permanently in a risky environment over the last twenty-five years.

Amongst many risks, we might mention: the debt crisis during the 1980s, starting with Poland and Mexico and spreading to Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and the Soviet Union; the stock exchange fall in 1987; the Mexican crisis in 1994; the bond market crash in 1994; the Asian crisis starting in 1997; the LTCM and Russian crises in 1998; the recent stock exchange fall and the collapse of the technology bubble in 2000. We have surmounted all these crisis episodes. We have learned a lot and we have improved a lot in these occasions. One of my friends used to say: "Good management comes out from experience and experience comes out from bad management!" I think we are pretty experienced now and I take it that thanks to the lessons drawn we have now achieved a level of crisis prevention which is much better. But we should never forget that the risks are still there because they are intimately associated with the structural transformation of the global economy. This is not, in any respect, a time for complacency.

If I had to sum up what should be our today's mottos, I would make the following five recommendations:

*Let us not forget the crucial role of the IFIs, in particular the Bretton Woods institutions, in the management of the present global economy. The constant improvement of their management and instruments is key;

*Let us tirelessly improve transparency in all fields: it is the best recipe for avoiding both misallocation of capital and global crisis contagion;

*Let us continuously improve the flexibility of our economies through bold structural reforms. Not only because it improves efficiency but also, all the more, because it improves resilience in a world where shocks are to be expected;

*Let us reinforce our methodology to ensure that we do not amplify "pro-cyclical" phenomena...

----(see url for complete commentary)-----

The key point out of all of this is that we live in a world of risk, and in an evolving environment that tries to deal with that risk. It is not lost on me, as I read these comments from the ECB president, that the push for more properly valued gold (free-gold) as an important central banking reserve in replacing the dollar architecture is being spearheaded through the Eurosystem. That it comes from this direction, rather than from the lofty U.S. of A. should come as no surprise, because much of experience shows that the position of privilege is rarely the body which pushes for change, no matter how much it might be needed for the greater good.

R.
Goldendome
(06/18/2004; 18:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122245)
A Double Eagle finds a new home!

A Doctor friend (acquaintance) is taking a vacation to Hawaii; his daughter and fianc�e are getting married while they are also vacationing there.

Today, he approaches me with a 14-S Double Eagle, inquiring as to any interest that I might have in buying it, to help finance his sojourn. (Why a Doctor needs to sell a Double Eagle to help finance a trip, puzzles me.)

Always interested in Gold--says I--What's your asking price?

$450.00-- he says.--What do you think?

--I think 450 is a lot of money.-- I said flipantly.--But, not so much of a lot when I'm looking at a coin like this.

He replied strongly, --Shouldn't be, but I offered it downtown yesterday, and they'd only give me 436 for it.

--I bet they'd give you more today, --I replied.

--They made me so dam mad, I may never go there again.-- He responded.
---------------------------------------------------------

So, Goldendome's stash of cash savings dwindles again, and his hoarding of the gold grows...

It really is a nice coin; not officially graded but in a nice little black screwdown plastic holder. Uncirculated, and as nice as others of the kind that I have, graded MS-62.
All the feathers clear and unworn; the nose straight and true; the knee and hair all clean and unrubbed....Sure hope I did the right thing.
Goldendome
(06/18/2004; 19:56:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122246)
Speculation vs. Gambling
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2004/0503.htmlTowncrier: Antal Fekete, in a paper "What Gold & Silver Analysts Overlook", addresses the causes of the "The world of Risks" pointed out by Jean-Claude Trichet, and lays the blame squarely on irredemable currencies. He writes:

...Speculation in grains is legitimate business as it addresses risks given by nature. Both the price-risk and the basis-risk are nature-given. They are influenced by the weather, the possibility of floods and other natural disasters. We have no other means to alleviate market dislocations such as shortages caused by crop failure ( hurting the consumer) and price busts caused by bumper crops (hurting the producer) than organized speculation.

By contrast, organized speculation in the monetary metals is an aberration due to irredeemable currency. In fact, to call it speculation is a misnomer. Speculation in gold and silver is of the nature of gambling. The risks it addresses are not nature-given but man-made, like those addressed by foreign exchange and interest-rate speculation. We use the term "man-made" in its broadest sense, to include manipulations by the government and central bank. If we compare the government to the casino owner, then the speculators are the gamblers. The government creates the risks artificially in the gold and silver market for the speculators to place their bets on. Few peopoe today realize that under the gold standard there was no organized speculation in foreign exchange and interest rates, as the variation in these rates were too small rendering speculation unprofitable. And, of course , there was no organized speculation in gold. This, incidentally, is one of the merits of a gold standard. It channels talent and manpower away from gambling and into productive enterprize. The main negative effect of the destruction of the gold standard by the government was the creation of a long list of artificial risks that had not existed before, e.g., the foreign exchange risk and the interest rate risk. The regime of irredeemable currency is seen as a most wasteful one. It creates phantom markets, phantom supply and demand, channeling talent and manpower away from socially desirable production into socially undesirable gambling. The derivative markets trading gold, silver, foreign echange, and interest rate futures (options) are a monument to government obtuseness and inefficiency. Rather than reducing, as it should, the number of ever-present risks that man has to face in his struggle for survival, the government in embracing irredeemable currency, creates new and wholly unnecessary risks, thereby undermining the efficiency of production, distribution, and saving. Worse still, the government also exposes society to unimaginable dangers such as the sudden impoverishment and permanent pauperization of the majority of the people, as it happened in pre-Hitler Germany...
Life,Liberty,Property
(06/18/2004; 21:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122247)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****
I am going to take a stab at this out of left field (or perhaps not, since I don't always have time to peruse these pages). The end of cheap oil may just mean the return of coal's prominence for power generation. Though it has lost the cache it held from the beginning of the industrial revolution, in part because of the cheapness of oil and the pollution it generates, it has the attraction of being far more plentiful. Especially in the United States, in areas that are currently out of bounds for mining (thanks to the same administration that received donations from Indonesian coal interests. Also made oil reserves out of bound as another hint). New advances in software and controls is increasing power generation in OLD plants by 10%. Improved scrubbers, and catalytic converters are even cleaning emissions. The end of cheap oil? Look for the rise of existing alternative energy resources. You can't run a car on them, but power generation is a significant part of the oil equation.
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 23:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122248)
BRAVO Sir Goldendome !
So, Goldendome's stash of cash savings dwindles again, and his hoarding of the gold grows...

It really is a nice coin; not officially graded but in a nice little black screwdown plastic holder. Uncirculated, and as nice as others of the kind that I have, graded MS-62.
All the feathers clear and unworn; the nose straight and true; the knee and hair all clean and unrubbed....Sure hope I did the right thing.
===
You stole it ! <;-)
BUT, you are "grading" the wrong items on the coin !!
THE TOES are the important items !!!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(06/18/2004; 23:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122249)
ROFL !!!! <;-)
MK (6/18/04; 17:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 122240)
Gandalf
Have you noticed that gold does wondrous things whenever we have these contests.
===
BUT, we all know who the person is that determines the time for these contests !
Everytime that you, SIR MK, suggest that I start a POG Contest, I call the USAGOLD small order desk and make my small order !!!
WHY ? --- BECAUSE I know that the price direction is going to be higher at the end of the contest !!
YOU, SIR MK, are the WIZARD !
<;-)
Bizarro-Greenspan
(06/18/2004; 23:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122250)
Belgian,Euro/gold chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID559876
It's the third one from the top.

As Fleck would say,"It's baked to perfection."?

Perhaps free gold will arrive when the giant ascending triangle completes itself.Reminds me of the oil chart,reality eventually trumps multi-pronged spin and futures market manipulation.


The ability of the futures market to deliver must be maintained,if not,the panic into physical in other areas of gold banking would naturally ensue.

Belgian
(06/19/2004; 02:29:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122251)
@Bizarro-span
Indeed Sir, this �-POG chart fragment is a nice "little" window through wich one can see a "small" part of the developping picture...FREEGOLD (in one word).
And as Randy (TC) already pointed...look at the different "behavior - pattern", between $-POG and �-POG...or the deep differences between old dollar and new euro.

But, many keep struggling with that same "burning" question... FreeGold, Yes,...but WHEN !?
A : See (in detail) how Euroland evolved (evolves) on its (in)famous constitution. This is a very good example of typical (particular) euro modus operandi, that should provide you (us) with some insights as tho how and when FreeGold will materialize. In 2 words : confusingly slow...but "steady" underneath !!! And then,....all of a sudden,...kaboom !

Euroland's "diversity" (or neutrality)...IS... its "strength" !!! This, the AA community will soon find out. The AAs cannot "divide" to conquer...what IS already very diversified (25 states).
Euroland's *diversity-neutrality* is embedded in the concept of the euro-currency.

About the triangle (coil) you spotted on the �-POG fragment : Yes, this is to be technically interpreted as a probable kaboom-thing. And if the fundamentals are in place...we might see a nice goldprice run...MIGHT !!!

But this is of NO importance, Bizarro !!! Forget about the cyclic goldprice-moves that happened in the past 25 years !
FreeGold is one long, big move. One is now,...always too late with accumulating and holding Gold.
Reread Randy's conclusion on his reporting of the Madrid conference. That's the real "essence", Bizarro ! Extremely short and as close to the point as can be. The correct "interpretation" of Trichet's speach.

Charts (TA/TI) are (were) great fun. But the real fundamentals are evolving to "dramatic" proportions and leave less room fur spielerei ( for game-playing). Both, our
CBankers ($-�) know this for quite some time now. These gentlemens are trying to tell us, that... something...is changing, Big.
The TI of many charts has become,...IS... totally un-reliable, NOW ! Many cyclical elements are been taken out and we are sliding into one big linear move.

Heading towards FreeGold is nothing else than the "unmasking" of the huge phony (virtual) content of all things financial. Things financial are heading towards simplification...back to the roots...core fundamentals, you name it. (cfr. A.Fekete-Goldendome)

The past "fixed-contained" Gold-period (experiment) is ending. Cfr. the already forgotten (early) Rothshild statement.

The management of the "change" tries to make it happen as shocklessly as possible. That's the most confusing part (element) of the "change".

The Goldrun towards FreeGold of the 1971 > 1980 was pr�mature and therefore aborted. Many, if not all, are still, conveniently mis-interpreting "what" exactly happened at that time.
There can be only one correct interpretation of those Golden turbulences of that period.
Note, that today...nobody is officially commenting on what exactly is happening with the goldprice and the pricing !!!
The "WHY"-question is too confronting (as usual),...again,...as it was in the eighties.

In a very recent, new (German) documentary on Iraq...I saw (again) the disturbing distribution of loads of freshly printed dollar-notes (bribery) ! I had some very mixed feelings...
Crazy world !?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/19/2004; 11:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122252)
Big prizes up for grabs...

Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YES, ALL -- Those were the CONTEST trumpets sounding again! A call to contest! A call to contest!

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst when it prints,

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the Table Round knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy? For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.
$10 Liberty gold coin
First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the Essay entry, please indicate in the subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

(Just like that, surrounded by stars)

To qualify for contest entry, the Essay should be fifty or more words in length.

Essay Entry Deadline: NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.
Uruguay gold coin
AND, YES, a Second Contest segment -- a gold price-guessing contest with STATEMENT!!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the settlement of the August futures contract (GC4Q) on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in Dollars and Tenths, posted by 12:00 Midnight Mountain time at the end of day, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your POG Contest entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on WHY you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

The following prizes, donated by Centennial Precious Metals, will be awarded.

For the Essay Contest$10 Liberty gold coin

First prize is a highly collectible United States $10 gold Liberty coin in uncirculated grade, (0.48375oz. net fine gold)

Second prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 net fine gold oz)

Third prize: A one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.silver eagle

===

For the GOLD Price-Guessing Contest
Uruguay gold coin
First prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes shall be one each, a U.S. Silver Eagle.

On with the CONTEST and onward toward the prizes!! Good luck to all!!

For a new window to post your contest entry to the forum, click here. (Post a New Message)

What?! You don't have a password yet??! It couldn't be easier. Please review our Discussion Forum Guidelines page where you may register for your password. COME AND JOIN IN ON THE FUN ALL you lurkers!!

Smeagol
(06/19/2004; 11:43:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122253)
Why $50
...if the US country's government "official price" of It is $42 and change per ounce, why iss their one-ounce Gold Eagle sstamped $50, eh? Paper dollars have no ssubstance and thus no real value, we know that, but...sss... it appears that a Gold (or Silver) "dollar" alsso has no definition... not that it really matters...or does it?

S.
Smeagol
(06/19/2004; 11:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122254)
...and well worth the effort too...
Tons, thousands of tons,
Won from stone, shaft, hill and stream
One ounce at a time

S.

(P.S. to Sir Gandalf...sss... you have uss fair and ssquare, we admit, we fed Spot and Spike ssome Gold-fissh night before lasst as a bribe to get to your looking-glass ball, but they was too ssmart!)
Gandalf the White
(06/19/2004; 12:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122255)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ---- POG CONTEST UPDATE
LISTING of ENTRIES for the POG Settlement GUESSING Contest as of Saturday 6/19/04 at 12:42 Denver time!


Listed in order of DECREASING values !
===

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Topaz (6/15/04; 13:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122113)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (6/15/04; 12:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122109)

$$$$ $399.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (06/17/04; 21:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122207)

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Rimh (06/16/04; 12:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 122156)

$$$$ $395.5 $$$$ NTgeo (06/17/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122210)

$$$$ $392.4 $$$$ Smeagol (06/17/04; 22:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122211)

$$$$ $385.7 $$$$ slingshot (06/17/04; 03:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 122183)
===
I predicted that an EARLY entry shall be a WINNER !!!!
<;-)
Nomad
(06/19/2004; 13:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 122256)
$$$$ 390.0 $$$$

I think the market has already priced in any interest rate increases and I dont see a lot of change from the present situation in the near future. Undoubtedly this is the beginning of peak oil but that is going to play out over a long period of time, I think.

Nomad
Clink!
(06/19/2004; 15:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122257)
$$$$$ $412.0 $$$$$
Why do things happen when MK decides on a contest ? Well, maybe he has been looking at the TA wedge formed on the downside from $433 through #399.80 and the upside from $371.30 in mid-May and $384ish at the beginning of this week. The lines were going to intercept somewhere in the next week, so what better time to choose ?!

The downtrend line was at around $390 yesterday, which means that a significant breakout of around $5 occurred yesterday. Will it hold ? Will it fail ? We'll see next week. But for my money.....

C!

PS. That is an awesome collection of charts, Sir B-G !
mackattack
(06/19/2004; 16:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122258)
$$$$$$$404.30$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
So many people know about the blatant manipulation of gold now that guessing ,as opposed to T/A,is all we can use.Everywhere i go people talk(know) about the manipulation of gold.So what will happen next week?Well gold will rise but of course be frantically capped in a vain effort to keep it under 400.

What does expensive oil mean to a country which loves the biggest vehicle they can afford?It means devastation!As profits get squeezed the propped up stocks of the dow and nasdog will plunge.People will travel less'slowly bringing the usa casino to a grinding halt.Chaos will ensue as people demand blood and begin to realize everything they believed in is gone forever.After the saudi empire collpses there will be nothing stopping oil from soaring and with it inflation.In the end america will be financially and of course morally bankrupt as the ever increasing prices bring ever increasing lies from the american spin machine.But with huge gas bills the average joe six pack will no longer listen.Shortly thereafter the national anthem will be changed to "the emperor has no clothes!" to remind future generations of what harm propaganda can do.Once a year will be national Greenspin day,as people wait for days for the chance to tinkle on Greenspin's grave,now the most despised man in american history!
Topaz
(06/19/2004; 17:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122259)
@misetich
The fact we're witnessing a worldwide reduction in mined Gold has far more to do with the effects of 90's low pricing than any spin that may be forthcoming.
During this period the practice of high-grading deposits coupled with a reluctance toward exploration will imo see these low and lower production levels well into the future.

A no-brainer for much higher Gold prices? HA! We wish ;-(
Topaz
(06/19/2004; 18:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122260)
Oil/Dollar.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=O/D really need to start giving it up next week if we're to see this US "recovery" maintain any semblance of credibility. Yields on T's might get hit early (Mon) to light the path down and we can't rule out a pre-emptive move in IR's.

Al ... Mate! There's GOLD on MK's Table ... give a bloke a break!

Dollar Bill
(06/19/2004; 18:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122261)
.,.
There is an industry that seeks out companies to show them how to save money. As that industry plows through the capitalist landscape, they speed up the downsizing and outsourceing.

***********end of oil**********gold at $178
Wont matter. Invest in stocks. They are the real gold. Trust in ingenuity to find a way to power our economy with a new cleaner safer method. It exists, and I think we can just rest assured that god will make sure we discover it just before we run into any real problem.
We have nothing to fear but fear itself. O blah di, O blah da. Relax, its going to be a bright bright bright, sun shiny day :)
Dollar Bill
(06/19/2004; 18:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122262)
.,.
Since Fathers Day has been declared, I would just like to say that I rest assured knowing that steady and sure hands are steering the economy. That all signs are "go" and when the kids hit 52, they will look back and type on the forum, like I am now, content in the knowing that THIER kids are walking into young adulthood about to take the baton that has been carefully cherished with the vision of the long haul and the childrens future in mind. God bless America!
Land of the vigilant. The prudent, the wise.
price
(06/19/2004; 18:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122263)
$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$
$$$$$$$402.10$$$$$$$$

This is a 50% retracement of the move down to $371.71. The exchange rate of gold is going to visit $402.10 on its way to $409.20, a 61.8 retracement, by the end of June.

PRice
Cavan Man
(06/19/2004; 20:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122264)
dollar bill nee pollyanna
Those strong hands steer nothing. Your misconception will be to your enlightenment. Those same "hands" have built a system that now steers itself. You forget "free will"; God's ways are not our own. We mock Him.
Cavan Man
(06/19/2004; 20:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122265)
dollar bill
Unwrap yourself from the flag. You may not be entitled its' refuge. You say God Bless America. Yes and, America Bless God.
Nomad
(06/19/2004; 20:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122266)
Peak Oil Contest Essay - Part I

Peak Oil Landmarks
(with no apologies to 'HomeLand' Insecurity)
(to be laminated and placed in your wallet :)
---------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------
condition Green
crude oil price: $ 50 / barrel
US gas/diesel price: $ 3 / gallon
---------------------------------------------------------
condition Green symptoms
reported US govt inflation rate: 3 percent
gold price: $ 430 US$ / oz
reported US govt unemployment rate: 6 percent
real estate bubble: average US house price drops 5 percent
stock market bubble: DOW 9000
10 year US Treasuries: 6 percent
---------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------
condition Blue
crude oil price: above $ 70 / barrel
US gas/diesel price: above $ 4 / gallon
---------------------------------------------------------
condition Blue symptoms
reported US govt inflation rate: 5 percent
gold price: $ 600 US$ / oz
reported US govt unemployment rate: 8 percent
real estate bubble: average US house price drops 10 percent
stock market bubble: DOW 8000
10 year US Treasuries: 8 percent
---------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------
condition Yellow
crude oil price: above $ 90 / barrel
US gas/diesel price: above $ 5 / gallon
---------------------------------------------------------
condition Yellow symptoms
reported US govt inflation rate: 7 percent
gold price: $ 800 US$ / oz
reported US govt unemployment rate: 10 percent
real estate bubble: average US house price drops 20 percent
stock market bubble: DOW 7000
10 year US Treasuries: 10 percent
---------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------
condition Orange
crude oil price: $ 110 / barrel
US gas/diesel price: $ 6 / gallon
---------------------------------------------------------
condition Orange symptoms
reported US govt inflation rate: 9 percent
gold price: $ 1000 US$ / oz
reported US govt unemployment rate: 12 percent
real estate bubble: average US house price drops 35 percent
stock market bubble: DOW 6000
10 year US Treasuries: 12 percent
---------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------
condition Red
crude oil price: $ 130 / barrel
US gas/diesel price: $ 7 / gallon
---------------------------------------------------------
condition Red symptoms
reported US govt inflation rate: 12 percent
gold price: $ 1500 US$ / oz
reported US govt unemployment rate: 15 percent
real estate bubble: average US house price drops 50 percent
stock market bubble: DOW 5000
10 year US Treasuries: 15 percent
---------------------------------------------------------

Nomad

Smeagol
(06/19/2004; 21:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122267)
why we hates text ssometimes

...Sir Cavan Man - sss...text alone can be ssterile...
we HOPES Sir Dollar Bill had tongue firmly in cheek in his lasst two Possts...

Meanwhiles...

Those enchanted by
derivative delusions
wreck on golden rocks

S.




Smeagol
(06/19/2004; 21:43:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122268)
Or worse...
at Ssir Nomad,
(cackle)... we LIKES the Emergency Levels you possted! Let's hope we never gets passt Red!!!

------------------
condition Black
crude oil price: negotiable
US gas/diesel price: negotiable
------------------
condition Black symptoms:
reported US govt inflation rate: varies daily
gold price: inquire within
reported US govt unemployment rate: flip a gold coin
real estate bubble: mass mortgage defaults
stock market bubble: DOW below 2000 (if open)
10 year US Treasuries: called - replaced by 1 year
-------------------

S.
Nomad
(06/19/2004; 22:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122269)
Peak Oil Contest Essay - Part II

For decades, the Texas Railroad Commission was primarily responsible for setting US oil production quotas. In 1970 (perfectly in line with King Hubbert's prediction of a domestic US oil production peak) the TRC, for the first time, lifted production quotas completely. Those of us who lived through the 1970's (remember WIN buttons ? :) KNOW that this single event clearly signalled to anyone with half a brain, that the era of cheap domestic oil was offically over.

In 2005, worldwide oil demand of 80 mbd has, for the first time, matched maximum worldwide oil production, thanks to violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and the rise of American-style consumerist lifestyles in China and India. OPEC announced recently that they will continue to 'limit' members' production by setting oil production quotas equal to the maximum amount of oil each OPEC member is physically capable of delivering to the market. In other words, OPEC quotas are a thing of the past. Again, a clear signal has just been sent to those of higher intellectual function that the era of cheap WORLDWIDE oil production is over.

Of course the question we all want answered is what will the future bring ? The chart I posted in Part I consists of my personal, basic, educated-guess scorecard. While it may be fashionable to quibble about the details, I think the bottom line is that the fat lady, has in fact, taken her spot center-stage.

I have posted before about the importance of the book, 'The Fourth Turning' (http:///www.fourthturning.com) and how it provides a blueprint for making such educated guesses for the future. I have been gratified in seeing others take up the torch in support, both in this forum and the Peak Oil forums which I frequent.

I believe that we will see two primary areas of fallout from Peak Oil. The first and most obvious will be in the financial arena. Undoubtedly, inflation, unemployment, and gold prices will rise, while real estate prices will fall. In many ways it will mirror the Great Depression, but for the great mass of sheeple it will be much worse this time around. In the 1930's the US general population was still concentrated on farms and had the capability (if all else failed) to feed, clothe and house themselves. Can you imagine what the reaction of the SUV-driving, road-raging, TV-addicted public will be if even a fraction of their 'quality-of life' is compromised ?

4T notes that when the highly self-absorbed Boomer generation reaches the peak of it's political power, they will wreak havoc on all around them in their effort to hang on to the life they have come to expect as their birthright. The Iraq Quagmire is just a taste of what they are truly capable of. And this brings us to the second area of Peak Oil fallout, military empire building in a doomed effort to sustain the greedy, energy-sucking American 'lifestyle'. Look for 'interventions' to continue in all areas of the Middle East for decades to come.

One of the funniest thing I hear in the media and the Internet is the idea that Democrats and Republicans constitute the 'left' and the 'right' wing. Just different shades of Boomer gray, you know. Clearly Bush and the neo-cons are committed to the 'War on Terror'. And what is our 'other' choice ? Why a presidential 'left-wing' candidate whose stated goal is to DOUBLE the number of American troops in the Middle East. A choice between dumb and dumber.

To add fuel to the fire, the first of the Boomers is beginning to move out to pasture. As they move through their retirement years, this generation (like any other) will unload as many of their assets as possible, both to keep their heads above water and in an effort to live out their Snowbird dreams before passing on to the big TV network in the sky. In the federal government, estimates are that more than 20 percent of federal workers are planning on retiring within the next 5 years. Remembering that the Boomers were both the largest and (are still) the richest generation in Amercan history, consider that their efforts to unload their incredible store of assets could easily turn a fairly asset fire-sale into a blind panic. Those with gold and other hard assets should be able to pick the cream of the crop. One clear sign of the impending flood of retiring Boomers is the announcement by Winnebago of record sales and profits. Onward to Arizona, old-timers.

Peak Oil also has much in common with Y2K. While I think that a lot of people might be embarrassed to admit that they took Y2k seriously, I consider it to have been a watershed event in several ways. It was the first event in my lifetime that I remember so many people making serious preparations for what they thought might be a serious social/economic problem. I, personally, learned a lot, not just about the basics and importance of being prepared, but also about my own personality and anxiety levels :)

I have the distinct feeling that many of the people who feel they got burned by Y2K will let their personal anxiety pendulum swing to the other extreme and do their level best to convince themselves that Peak Oil is Y2K the re-run (boy who cried wolf and all that). I admit that I prepared VERY seriously for Y2K and when I found out I was WRONG, I drove a rather large truck to a food bank and helped feed a whole lot of people. Then I went on a long vacation. In September, 2001, thanks to 4T, I knew that the Catalyst had arrived and I began to rearrange my personal and professional life. I have a solid job, multiple sources of financial assets and live in a small, very isolated, relatively warm weather city, with a tradition of hard-working, independent-thinking people (no I won't tell you where it is :) I also have a spouse who supports my efforts to secure our life in every way possible. In other words, I put as many of my ducks in a row as I could possibly manage.

While the fixed date (no pun intended) aspect of Y2K could be compared to a frog getting hit by a sledgehammer, I believe Peak Oil is going to be much more like the famous slow-boiling frog experiment. By the time most people realize that they are in serious trouble, I think it's going to be too late for them to do much about it. For Y2K we had the incredible luxury of having a concrete date to prove/disprove our theories.

Peak Oil is NOT Y2K.

I hope the 4th Turning Crisis/Peak Oil finds each of you in a comfortable place, with lots of economic, social and emotional support.

Nomad

Nomad
(06/19/2004; 23:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122270)
@ Smeagol

good addition, now I have to re-laminate :)

Nomad
Ned
(06/20/2004; 03:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122271)
Ned
(06/20/2004; 03:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122272)
Nomad
Great posts.
Ned
(06/20/2004; 03:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122273)
Dollar Bill
?
Ned
(06/20/2004; 04:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122274)
990N
Hope everyone has caught the 2 day '990N' thread over at neighboring castle. Interesting post by SS at 23:24 last night.
Roccoco
(06/20/2004; 10:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122275)
DAN, more specific? 990N...
Am aware of the 990N thing by McKenzie (sp?), and am interested in reading more about it... where exactly is our neighboring castle? I know it't probably not nice to be pointing to another website, but in this case, I believe the informational issue is greater than the slight.

If you have problems pointing me, would you mind sending to my email address (if you think you would be enmaddening our hosts?). Can't see why, as it's not PROMOTIONAL, just informational.

thanks, roccoco
Roccoco
(06/20/2004; 10:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122276)
whoopss... hold that request... found it... !!!
Dan, I found it... the message from SS late last night... interesting, but not a lot of meat.

thanks again !!

roccoco
Ned
(06/20/2004; 10:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122277)
Roccoco
http://www.gold-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.htmlAttached is a link to the 'other' gold forum. Several members here are also members there so I think it's okay to mention them by name.

They don't sell the yellow so I don't think its competition or promotional.

(TC/MK; please excuse and advise if otherwise)
Ned
(06/20/2004; 10:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122278)
Roccoco
SS's mention is part of a 2 day discussion over there.

Who's Dan?
Great Albino Bat
(06/20/2004; 10:42:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122279)
Vanity Fair article on Prosecutors/Big Business

Interesting article in June's VF on the current showbusiness of public prosecutors vs. big wheels in business.

In my opinion, WTSHTF in a few months, USA is going to turn LEFTWARD with a vengeance. "Capitalist" will become a fearful term, implying "crimnal". This is an incredible gift to the most extreme Left, not only in USA but around the world, as the whole world will feel the impact of USA meltdown. The Left will of course, blame the "rich". Heads will roll. Maybe physically.

The GAB
Smeagol
(06/20/2004; 10:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122280)
sshiny kettles

But, Ssir GAB, will the...sss..."rich left" altruisstically include themselves in the purge? We will ssee...

S.

-----

Collateral gold
Confiscated, borrowed, sold
Do you have title?

-----
Gandalf the White
(06/20/2004; 12:27:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122281)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ---- POG CONTEST UPDATE

LISTING of ENTRIES for the POG Settlement GUESSING Contest as of:
Sunday 6/20/04 at HIGH NIOON 12:00 Denver time!

Listed in order of DECREASING values !
===
$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Topaz (6/15/04; 13:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122113)

$$$$ $412.0 $$$$ Clink! (6/19/04; 15:22:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 122257)

$$$$ $404.3 $$$$ mackattack (6/19/04; 16:16:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 122258)

$$$$ $402.1 $$$$ price (6/19/04; 18:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 122263)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (6/15/04; 12:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122109)

$$$$ $399.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (06/17/04; 21:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122207)

$$$$ $396.2 $$$$ Rimh (06/16/04; 12:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 122156)

$$$$ $395.5 $$$$ NTgeo (06/17/04; 21:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 122210)

$$$$ $392.4 $$$$ Smeagol (06/17/04; 22:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 122211)

$$$$ $390.0 $$$$ Nomad (6/19/04; 13:40:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 122256)

$$$$ $385.7 $$$$ slingshot (06/17/04; 03:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 122183)

$$$$ $386.0 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (6/18/04; 18:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 122243)

$$$$ $385.5 $$$$ Life,Liberty,Property (6/18/04; 17:48:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 122241)
===
<;-)
Smeagol
(06/20/2004; 12:31:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122282)
of paint and corners...

...sssnips from the morning paper, (bold print ours) - "The minimum household income required to buy the median priced home in California rose to $100,000 for the first time in April as AFFORDABILITY SANK by an annualized 7 percentage points, to 20 percent, [the California Association of Realtors] reported today... The gulf between the housing haves and have-nots is INCREASING... a household in California needed to earn at least $102,550 to buy a home priced at the median $453,590, based on a 30 year loan at 5.42%... The affordability index is based on the percentage of households that could afford to purchase the median-price home in their community. The lowest point was 14% in the spring and summer of 1989, a time when PRICES WERE LOWER BUT INTEREST RATES MUCH HIGHER THAN NOW."

sss...keep on painting/printing, "Ssir" Alan Grandspin... there's sstill a bit of corner there, under your feet...

Over storm-swept waves
flashes golden lighthouse beam
Steady as she goes

S.
Smeagol
(06/20/2004; 13:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122283)
...forget Pipe-leaf...
...we are finding that Ssir Town Crier's GHKS (Gold Hai-Ku Ssyndrome) is worsse by far even than a Hobbit's habit, precious!!

---
Before bubbles pop,
leaving nasty clinging slime,
Go get Gold Goo-Gone
---

S.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/20/2004; 15:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122284)
Hear ye! Hear ye!

Gandalf the White
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YES, ALL -- Those were the CONTEST trumpets sounding again! A call to contest! A call to contest!

Knights and Ladies, consider this:

This month's National Geographic is preparing the public for the worst when it prints,

"Think gas is expensive now? Just wait. You've heard it before but this time its for real: We're at the beginning of the end of cheap oil."

Thanks to Sir Black Blade and others, we at the Table Round knew that someday this would be published to all ---
BUT, now let's take that a step further.

What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy? For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?

So we'll make this a contest at two levels.
$10 Liberty gold coin
First, and most important, an "Essay Contest" answering the questions posed above. For the Essay entry, please indicate in the subject box as follows:

**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

(Just like that, surrounded by stars)

To qualify for contest entry, the Essay should be fifty or more words in length.

Essay Entry Deadline: NOON Denver time on Friday, June 25, 2004.
Uruguay gold coin
AND, YES, a Second Contest segment -- a gold price-guessing contest with STATEMENT!!!

The winner will be the entry closest to the settlement of the August futures contract (GC4Q) on the COMEX for Friday, June 25, 2004. All entries must be in Dollars and Tenths, posted by 12:00 Midnight Mountain time at the end of day, Tuesday, June 22, 2004.

Please indicate your POG Contest entry in the message subject box as follows:

$$$$Gold Price Guess$$$$

SUCH AS ---
$$$$$$$432.1$$$$$$$$

ALSO, --- Each POG guess must be accompanied by a brief statement on WHY you think gold is going to go where you think it is going.
=====

The following prizes, donated by Centennial Precious Metals, will be awarded.

For the Essay Contest$10 Liberty gold coin

First prize is a highly collectible United States $10 gold Liberty coin in uncirculated grade, (0.48375oz. net fine gold)

Second prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 net fine gold oz)

Third prize: A one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.silver eagle

===

For the GOLD Price-Guessing Contest
Uruguay gold coin
First prize is a Uruguay 5 peso gold coin (0.2501 oz. net fine gold)

Second and Third prizes shall be one each, a U.S. Silver Eagle.

On with the CONTEST and onward toward the prizes!! Good luck to all!!

For a new window to post your contest entry to the forum, click here. (Post a New Message)

What?! You don't have a password yet??! It couldn't be easier. Please review our Discussion Forum Guidelines page where you may register for your password. COME AND JOIN IN ON THE FUN ALL you lurkers!!

Smeagol
(06/20/2004; 15:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122285)
tsssk, tsssk, tsssk...
...a Google ssearch for 'stop making pennies?" resulted in, among other things, this ssnip, cut and pasted. We reserves the name of the middle school ssite where thiss was possted to ssave them...sss... embarrassment....

"SCIENCE ... When did they stop making pennies out of copper?! I always thought that honest Abe was 100% copper until yesterday's lab. The students were comparing the densities of various objects including pure copper. After discovering that copper has a density of 8.2 (more or less) I confidently exclaimed that by using the same procedure they would discover that a copper penny has the same density as the copper we were using. They didn't. I was shocked, but the students weren't."Gee Mr. Palmer, didn't you know they stopped making them out of pure copper years ago"? I'm really enjoy working with students who, at the age of 12, can prove a penny isn't pure copper by using a combonation of their math and science skills!"

...don't ssay it, precious, be nice! Ach! All right...no comment...
S.
balzac
(06/20/2004; 16:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122286)
$$$$$GOLD PRICE GUESS$$$$$
$$$$$398.5$$$$$
UNFORTUNATELY WE WILL NOT MAKE$ 400 ON THE APPOINTED DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND $410 IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. The balance of trade deficit
will grow to 575 billion for the year of 2004 which translates into
$500 gold, the presses will roll for currency devaluation ,which translates into inflation.

balzac
Waverider
(06/20/2004; 18:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122287)
***** $403.50 *****
http://www.zealllc.com/2004/usdrate.htmI think that Gold will continue to move inversely to the US$ - the dollar is trading below it's 50 day moving average and technicals suggest a continued downtrend.

Actually, Adam Hamilton articulates the bearish synopsis for the US$ much better than I in his attached article.

Good luck to all and lets get EVERYONE out for the price guessing contest! Cheers,

Waverider
Dollar Bill
(06/20/2004; 21:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122288)
.,.
Cavan Man, greetings, maybe you read it too fast? I am just exasperated by the direction of the whole shebang. Not the iraq issue, the economic issue of the greenspan Fed attempting to take the future of our children and risk it.
When sensible men sound like lunatic fringe.....when debt and inflation are the path.....how am I supposed to feel on fathers day? The kids think we are on solid ground. So do most of the adults.
I come up with an idea that there is a global united states of europe model with a money rain command economy planned......because I want to believe there is method behind the madness.......but it looks like the only consideration is the survival of the big power/money folks, and the wreckage looming from the transition is not only unplanned for........but not really cared about.
In the meantime, it serves the fed if the people drown in debt, and I see absolutely NO agency or group planning for all the personal wreckage coming when this experimental bubble machine starts causeing real issues for all the people.

But, I didnt want to talk about that, so I wrote the cheery lunacy of yesterday. You were right, "pollyanna". Seemed the only way to go since the reality is just so bizarre.
Black Blade
(06/20/2004; 21:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122289)
**** The End of Cheap Oil ****

Crude oil prices have rebounded within striking distance of new record highs (unadjusted for inflation of course). Still US manufacturers, businesses, and consumers are quaking in their boots as they are becoming aware that prices will not be retreating significantly anytime soon (if ever). Last week there where four major explosions on Iraqi pipelines and attempts to disrupt domestic power generation in that country by foreign terrorists. The President of the Governing Iraqi Council was assassinated on May 17th and there were several attempts on the lives of other Council members since.

This disruption of over 1.5 million bbl/day has been mitigated some by Saudi Arabia's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali I. al-Naim's "jawboning" that his nation's paper reserves (mot known to most outside the Ministry as it's a state secret). The simple fact is that the Middle East has been producing "flat out" (OPEC quota cheating) since reaching "peak-production" over two years ago and rising decline rates. According to the OPEC 10 conference president Purnomo Yusgiantoro, OPEC has been running at 2 million bbl/day over the 25-million bbl/day quota. The same is said of the North Sea and the Caspian Play has been a bust so far in spite of high expectations.

The IEA Paris-based International Energy Agency recently revised their worldwide demand estimates from 77 million bbl/day in 2004 to 80.6 million bbl/day. The first quarter demand from China alone increased 1 million bbl/day according to the IEA May report. The IEA stated that suppliers must increase investment and drilling to secure production for tomorrow.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates claimed, "Global oil demand is not being dampened by these prices primarily because the strong euro (and high tax component on major fuels) is insulating European countries from their effects. And the strongest growth market � China which has a huge surplus in its balance of payments � is not materially affected by high dollar-denominated prices because it has the financial reserves to off-set them".

Analyst Douglas-Westwood ltd., Canterbury, England said that depleting oil reserves, coupled with growing energy demand, will result in sustained oil prices near the $40/bbl level with greater investment in Natural Gas. China's rising oil demand will likely continue and has five times the U.S. population and is industrializing rapidly with vehicle demand rising as well (but we already knew that over two years ago). Westwood supply specialist Michael R. Smith added that 52 of 99 producing countries have passed "peak production", 16 are at �peak production" and the rest are rapidly drawing down resources. Once oil supplies approach peak and scarcity prevails, prices will double within 3-4 years as they did during the shocks of the 1970's.

In the US there are a mere 146 operating refineries with some in the process of closing down due to high maintenance costs and ever-changing environmental regulation impossible for some to maintani profitable margins - even at current prices. There are also several grades of oil specific to certain refineries. As those crude oil supplies deplete so will some of those refineries.

The "real" inflation rate of 12%+ (not the BLS cover-up of 3-4%) is highly dependent on high petroleum prices and the prices of other staples. The higher prices will wipe out the savings of many and devalue the US dollar more and more. Meanwhile, hard assets like Gold and Silver have always been a form of portfolio insurance even as equities and the fiat currencies devalue, the precious metals (an alternative hard currency without government "faith and credit") have always moved higher.

- Black Blade
Dollar Bill
(06/20/2004; 21:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122290)
.,.
united states of "earth"
I meant.

********oil at higher prices*******
gold at 388
I think oil will go lower because there are 290 million people in the US and a very few of them are intent on wrecking the livelihoods of the citizens. But, putting aside the greenspan fed, another group of destructive types are planning bad deeds, and a few dozen out of 290 million can wreck the place fairly easily. So...........whatever the price of oil.............the effect of not being able to afford oil....will be the reality of many many US citizens.
Perhaps the govt will subsidize home heating oil.......but the regular joe and his family will be traumatized by not having money to pursue the present lifestyles.
All that traffic on memorial day? Enjoy the crowded roads while you can!
Annoyed by traffic around your town and on your way to work? Enjoy it while you can! That is slated to change. No matter WHAT the price of oil. I say.......take this summer and just REALLY marvel at the lifestyles folks are having. Includeing your own. Forces at the top and bottom are seemingly determined to wreck the lives of the regular American. And the Fed, and alkida.............they CAN wreck it for us...........and they will.

And our kids? They aint ready.
Melting Pot
(06/21/2004; 06:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122291)
Report: British naval vessels, 8 crew seized by Iran
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38159.354837963-815379204&siteID=mktw≻id=0&doctype=806&
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Iran has seized three British navy vessels which entered its territorial waters, arresting eight British sailors, Iran's official Arabic-language satellite news channel Al-Alam reported, according to AFX News. "The Iranian navy has confiscated three British boats that entered Iranian territorial waters... arresting the crew of eight people. On the boats they found weapons and maps," the station reported, quoting Iranian naval sources. The report said the arrests were made on the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which flows into the Gulf and is the boundary between Iran and Iraq, AFX News said.

Four Bombs Explode Outside Turkey Banks
The Associated Press

ISTANBUL, Turkey June 18, 2004 � Small bombs exploded outside four banks in Istanbul and the port city of Izmir on Friday, slightly injuring three people, Turkish officials said.

http://networks.org/?src=abc:ap20040618_2088

The ME powder keg fuse is burning.

Cavan Man
(06/21/2004; 07:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122292)
Where all the CB gold is going......Russia
GOLD AND FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES OF RUSSIA TO GROW BY $20-25 BILLION IN 2004


MOSCOW, June 21 (RIA Novosti) - The gold and currency reserves of the Russian Federation will grow by $20-25 billion in 2004, Central Bank first deputy chairman of the board Alexei Ulyukayev told an international investment conference on Monday.

"In the first half of 2004 the gold and currency reserves will grow by $10 billion and in the second half - by over $10 billion," he said.

EAT YOUR HEART OUT ANDY SMITH.

Buongiorno!
(06/21/2004; 09:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122293)
*****THE END OF CHEAP OIL*****

"Nothing cures high prices--like high prices."

(What is high? IMO, $4.00 per gallon is still less than our European friends pay, and they get along.)

The shock of higher oil (energy) prices has not yet really hit the average American, IMO. We just put it on the credit card, write a check and go on. Can't be bothered (at this level).

However, give it three months at $3.00 per gallon or more, with no relief in sight, and we will become serious. There could be an easy 10-15% reduction in energy use by just doing common-sense things like combining shopping trips, car pooling, and turning down the heat. Permit "jitney cabs" to operate (An SUV looks great with five persons inside, going to work), and encourage telecommuting. Easy stuff. Price rationing works! Perhaps production companies would find more resources, increasing supply some...perhaps.

Now the hard stuff--Cities will be designed to permit citizens to live close to work. Schools will be down-sized and located within walking distance of most students. Efficient transportation (steel-on-steel) will be stressed. The five car family with motorboat and powered bikes needs to go. Much of this stuff, we just do to ourselves....

The world will realize less relative advantage for cheap labor. Higher shipping costs on that China-made sofa will make it less, though still, competitive. Produce, which needs quick shipment, along with any bulk, low value items may become very much less profitable. (That "victory garden" is looking better!)

"Inflationary Depression" is a tough concept to understand, tougher still to live with. Basically it means that "much of what we must buy is gaining in price, while much of what we own is worth less". Government will neglect many duties except that of printing money--trying to make it all "seem OK".

As our dear mentors, Another, FOA, MK, Black Blade and others have stated--it all gets down to oil and gold and dollars and euros--and a world which will desperately seek a medium which is a store of value, unit of exchange, and means of accounting. Government will, as usual, subsidize energy prices for our benefit--and hammer at the price of gold--BUT NOT FOR LONG!

Chin-chin---ting!
Buongiorno!
Kev
(06/21/2004; 09:19:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122294)
$$$$$401.00$$$$$
By the end of the week, gold will start fighting with its MA200 while trying to break out of its H&S pattern.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell062104.html
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/21/2004; 09:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122295)
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TownCrier
(06/21/2004; 09:46:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122296)
Mid-day news from the trading floor...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlReuters excerpt:

[Gold traders/dealers]... were bracing for a triple-decker news day at the end of the month, anticipating quarter-end book squaring, the handover of power to the Iraqi interim government and possibly an interest rate hike at the June 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

"The end of June is a potential powder keg of things going on," said a bullion trader.

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TownCrier
(06/21/2004; 10:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122297)
End of June...
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlIn additon to the events mentioned in the previous Reuters article, I would like personally to add that he end of the month also brings with it the ECB's revaluation operations in which the Eurosystem's gold and foreign currency reserves are marked-to-market.

And as I mentioned last week, the price of gold in euro terms, now at EUR325, is poised for a nice turn upward toward last quarter's benchmark of EUR346. Will it get there or beyond in the next 10 days, and if so, will it be on stronger gold or on a softer euro/dollar exchange rate? Stay tuned... (cue the dramatic music)

R.
Nomad
(06/21/2004; 10:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122298)
Essay Error ...

Contest moderators:

I forgot to add the '**** The End of Cheap Oil ****' to my peak oil essay. I hope it is still acceptable for the contest ? Good essays out there, but I hope others pop in with their opinions too.

I did an informal poll among my co-workers and it seems they wouldn't make any lifestyle changes (car-pooling) till gas hit $ 5 / gallon. I think most people would suck it up and pay the higher prices before they would make any serious efforts to curb their travel. And it's important to know that in the US, most oil is used for transportation and comparatively little for heating and other uses.

Nomad
Gandalf the White
(06/21/2004; 11:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122299)
Sir Nomad
Knota problemo !
<;-)
knotakare
(06/21/2004; 11:20:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122301)
"Knota problemo"
Gandalf, you awoke me from a deep slumber.

If I am a "sleeper", may it be for the next leg up in the gold bull. Sinclair must be getting grumpy by now.

best regards to our hosts and all the bugs.

knotakare
Gandalf the White
(06/21/2004; 11:21:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122302)
OOPS -- An discusssion item for the next CONTEST ! <;-)
Sir Nomad said:

"And it's important to know that in the US, most oil is used for transportation and comparatively little for he