USAGOLD Discussion - July 2004

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Black Blade
(07/01/2004; 00:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122677)
MYSTERY BEHIND LATE RELEASE OF PPI DATA
http://www.nypost.com/business/26522.htm
Snippit:

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed release of the wholesale inflation number � the PPI � by half a week recently because, according to a press release, it needed to "resolve unexpected difficulties in calculating the index." A government agency doesn't produce a very important economic statistic on a timely basis and that's their best explanation?

Keep in mind that billions of dollars are wagered each day on whether inflation is increasing or falling. And remember that the PPI is one of the most visible gauges of this � watched all over the world. Not only is the number important to the Fed, but it's also key to the presidential election if only because it can change the economy by forcing financial markets to make borrowing costs more expensive.

When the PPI was finally released it showed an increase of 0.8 percent in May, the biggest jump since March 2003. If you take out food and energy prices the increase was 0.3 percent. That the media didn't seem to care about this delay was as astounding as the government's ineptitude. So let me be one voice of indignation.

Brian Catron, a BLS economist who works on the PPI data, says the number was delayed because "there was a calculation issue." What exactly does that mean? Does Catron mean that the PPI's jump, as originally calculated, was too large for the financial markets to handle? "You are implying that we are manipulating the number," Catron shot back when I asked. "I'm not going to dignify that with a response."

OK, don't respond. I'm still wondering if that was the case. But here are some other things you might want to know. Catron assured me that the "mistake" that caused the PPI's delay had to do with the quality of the data that were provided by manufacturers. And he contended that Labor Department higher-ups had not seen the original number before it was pulled, so only lowly bureaucrats decided to rejigger the data.

The raw data, Catron told me days before the PPI finally came out, didn't pass a quality assurance test. Prices � as they stood on the day they were originally supposed to be released � just weren't "appropriate" for public viewing. A little editing and they apparently become appropriate. Which makes me wonder: shouldn't someone be keeping an eye on the stat-amagicians?


Black Blade: Oh oh - someone "peeked". Yep, Crudele hits the mark again! I have attacked the abusers of statistcics here many times before so I just leave you to view the article (see link). The BLS is nothing more than a government scam operation.
Black Blade
(07/01/2004; 00:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122678)
Housing bubble is real, report says
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P87483.asp?Printer
Snippit:

Bank predicts a 'hard landing' by mid-2005 and says prices are 'spectacularly and unrealistically high.' But the Fed remains unworried. Economists at HSBC on Friday waded into the debate over whether the U.S. housing market is overinflated, declaring a bubble exists, something the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to do.

Black Blade: Of course. There's a glut of houses for sale and a building boom on top of that. Now with rising rates sales are sure to plummet hard and prices as well. A lot of real estate investors and consumer up to their necks in debt are going to take a bath so to speak.
TownCrier
(07/01/2004; 00:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122679)
Managing your money, and managing your wealth
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040630/financial_moneymarket_1.htmlHEADLINE: Rising rates provide relief, finally, for savers
NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Savers got some long-awaited relief when the Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates on Wednesday.

The Fed's decision to raise its target overnight lending rate to 1.25 percent from 1 percent means yields on money market mutual funds, certificates of deposit and other bank accounts -- and rates on credit card and other consumer debt -- will rise....

Investors shouldn't expect a quick return even to mid single-digit yields on cash investments. And money fund investors in particular should not seek out funds that take outsized risks to capture a bit more yield.

Still, Crane said "we don't expect anything near the scale of the problems in 1994," when about 40 funds came close to breaking the buck as rates rose.

"Portfolio managers have stayed cautious primarily because of the Enrons and WorldComs of the world," he said. "No one wants his fund in the headlines for that."

Consumers, meanwhile, should keep close tabs on what they pay on adjustable-rate home loans and credit cards, McBride said. Credit card rates are usually tied to the prime rate, which moves in lockstep with the Fed's overnight rate.

As rates rise, McBride said, the biggest mistakes people make are "failing to lock in fixed rates while rates were low, and maintaining exposure to higher rates through their outstanding credit card and home equity debt."

-----(from url)----

To what extent does this 25 basis point hike in rates require gold to show a capital gain (rise in price) to keep up in the race?

Due to this increased rate on cash account earnings, over the period of one year, gold (priced at $400) must now gain ONE whole dollar more than it previously needed to. Of course, your interest income is subject to taxation each year, whereas gold's capital gain taxation is a consideration only at such time as you decide to liquidate your holdings.

Gold's climb thus far in the past few years from $250 to $400 has made the potential interest one might have earned on alternative cash savings at the going rates look completely anemic. It will require much more than this token rate hike to take the shine away from gold while its still priced at these absurdly low levels. (On the other hand, were gold to be currently priced at $4,000 per ounce, it would then have to gain a whopping TEN dollars extra over the period of a year to keep pace with this 25 basis pt higher cash rate. (YAWN) Enough to send gold owners into a fit of nervous shaking? Not likely.)

R.
Black Blade
(07/01/2004; 00:32:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122680)
More seniors face financial need to return to work
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2648799
Snippit:

For many older Americans, retirement is not a financially viable option; many are going back into the work force. The trend is evident in the number of older workers, people 55 and above. Their numbers rose to 22.7 million in May, up from 22 million in 2003 and 20.7 million in 2002, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in older workers coincides with a shift in employers' attitudes at a time when the government is forecasting a significant labor shortage by the end of the decade.

Black Blade: With rising inflation and Social Security being a cruel joke as COLAs do not keep up anywhere with "real" inflation, a severe lack of financial preparation, and pension plans in trouble, it's a no-brainer that many spend and never save seniors have no choice.

Belgian
(07/01/2004; 03:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122681)
BIS !!!
ALL MONETARY POLICIES WILL BE KEPT * NEUTRAL *...as neutral as possible. Means that the bank of banks (BIS) wishes to keep, IRs-exchange rates-goldpricing..., as flat as can be.
Trichet (ECB) will most probably refer to this, in the afternoon.

Conclusion : The US and EU economies are NOT reviving, despite many drastic measures. Inducing Hyper-inflation of confettis and prices remains the only solution. Herein lies the remaining major fundamental conflict between FED($) and ECB(�)-policies ! Currency-management and/or economic stimulation.

Our conclusion should remain the same : Profit from the enduring obscene GOLDprice discounts and keep on accumulating for as long (as much) as you can...and understanding of Physical Gold permits.

In the past 3 decades, we never had a similar situation as at present. And this from *all* standpoints. *Hope* that the good old, familiar days of before, will come back,...might cost one dearly.
Ned
(07/01/2004; 05:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122682)
Short story
I was talking to an pre-elderly (65ish) man a year or so ago about silver. He owns a modern, tidy photo shop. The conversation began with me inquiring about the recycling of silver. His long story dazzled me immensely. A lot of silver was consumed for a long period of time. I had the impression that perhaps the late '50's thru to the mid-'90's. The amount of silver consumed has came off the cliff fairly significantly, again, by his story maybe 50%. It's still falling (digital) but it is beginning to level out. Surprises in the digital world should be farther and fewer between.

He was an active trader of silver in futures markets in the '80's but because he was late to the party lost his shirt badly. He scowled and grimaced when he spoke of silver....I think there is a definite love/hate relationship there! He spoke more affectionately when he spoke of gold however.

"You buy gold when TSHTF", he bellowed. "You should always have a little bit ...and you should have a lot just before TSHTF". So I asked him about TSHTF soon and his view of the world, politically.

He said, "They are wheeling in one of those monster giant fans over to the middle-east right now. That thing will be turned on very soon. There's another one, but not as big, being wheeled up Wall Street too! It is so funny to see self-proclaimed big-shot bankers getting IT when TSHTF"

"So TS is going THTF?" I asked.

"Of course it is! There are so many fans this time that it will make your head spin. "

"So how much gold do you have?" I asked, getting very nosy at this juncture.

"Well.......I'm somewhere in between a 'little bit' and 'a lot'."

I left the store absolutely convinced that my long-term strategies were 100% correct. Slowly accumulating the REAL McCoy, the real thing is the only thing that can turn off a fan, even those big monster giant ones.

Have a golden day!

(I says we crack 400 again today, the last half-hour of trading yesterday saw many miners spike)
968
(07/01/2004; 06:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122683)
@Towncrier
25 points is nothing. Sir Alan just wants to get the maximum impact with a minimum input. You have seen the whole mediacircus the days (weeks) before the FOMC. This is a psychological move.
968
(07/01/2004; 07:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122684)
Nice quote a ran into...
"There seems to be a correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises." HANS F. SENNHOLZ

968
(07/01/2004; 07:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122685)
@All // BIS
Some posters often (Belgian, Another, FOA) talk about the BIS. I've read about their mission and all on their website, but that's the official blabla. What do you know about this institution ? What kind of guy is Nout Wellink, the President of the BIS ? Does the BIS just trades gold,executes orders etc. for CB's, or does it owns Gold, does it trades for its own ? Is there al lot of political involvement ? Do they intervene in the markets under ECB-command ? Thanks in advance for your answers !
Solomon Weaver
(07/01/2004; 09:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122686)
Open letter to officials who need to be enlighted about gold ownership

Dear Friends

I have authored the following letter and will be sending it out to various elected officials and small town bank owners in my terrain....hope some of you might cut and paste it out to your computers....and one day do the same.

My idea is to send it out to a certain list now, and then IF we see moves afoot to restrict PM trade, to resend it then with the reminder that they had been alerted before.

. . . .


PRECIOUS METAL MARKET ALERT (By Poor Old Solomon , June 25, 2004)

CONCERNS OF POTENTIAL LEGISLATIONS BANNING OR LIMITING THE OWNERSHIP OF PRECIOUS METALS AND COMPANIES MINING PRECIOUS METALS.

Dear honored official,

We are writing this letter as a general letter which may be presented to government officials in any function who may influence legislation, or may simply have concerns about the financial rights of honest citizens living within their constituencies.

The topic of concern is the right of American citizens to own and invest in precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Of very specific concern is that legislators may be requested (lobbied) to pass or enforce new laws which severely restrict, or even outlaw the rights of Americans to own (or profit from) the sale of precious metals or companies involved in the mining of precious metals.

There is also a concern that the use of gold as money amongst illegal drug traders, mafia, and terrorists, will be used as an excuse to pass legislation against law abiding American citizens who own precious metals.

Lastly, were there to be a serious financial crisis in America which resulted in high levels of inflation and loss of global dollar purchasing power, Americans who have traditionally used only dollars, might move in a panic to convert portions of their savings from dollars to precious metals. The escalating price of gold, silver and other precious metals, in this case, would be an accurate barometer of the problem with US Dollars.

A brief summary of the situation is presented, and all that is asked is that you, as a legislative or enforcement official become attuned to the situation. America is both a democracy, where every vote counts, and a representative democracy, where citizens expect their representatives to vote and act in accordance with their conscience and beliefs.

The primary understanding which we would like to communicate about precious metals is that at many times in the past, both gold and silver have been used as money. All large governments have long ago discontinued the use of gold or silver in legal tender coinage, and have even gone so far as to sell much of their reserves of gold and silver. Gold and silver are no longer considered money, but their historic use as money has left a legacy of monetary value. Most Americans would easily equate treasure chests of gold and silver coins to wealth or riches. Platinum and palladium, along with silver, are primarily considered industrial metals. A unique property shared by all these metals is that they may be fabricated into coins and ingots. Coins can, in some cases have collectable value, and ingots of various sizes are usually convenient forms of high purity bullion metal. Thus, although the primary use of silver, platinum and palladium is now industrial, a portion of the world reserve of each is in the form of small coins and bars which are held by investors.

There are actually several ways to own precious metals. The most obvious and most simple is to buy a coin or bar from a dealer who handles them. For persons or corporations that want larger amounts of precious metals, they may choose to buy a certificate that gives them title to a certain amount of a precious metal in a vault in a bullion bank. The daily price for all of the four precious metals is determined in international markets and is known as the spot price. In addition, there is a large amount of gold and silver trading in the futures markets as futures contracts and options.

A person or company with large amounts of money and short term investment time horizons of hours, days, or months will often choose to place their money in the futures or certificate trade. These markets are large, with active trading, and therefore allow large investors to move in and out with low transaction costs. Although gold is no longer used as money, its price in these large futures markets is carefully followed, allowing all global currencies and commodities to be instantly valued in grams or ounces of gold.

Why would someone want to buy real gold or silver or other precious metals? There are two primary reasons. The first is that coins or bars of these metals have a durable, tangible and intrinsic value which derives from their future utility in industry as well as their perceived value as a financial instrument. Owners of precious metal coins or ingots may use them as a form of savings, but they sacrifice an interest on the savings, since such coins and ingots bear no interest. An important counterpoint to the loss of interest is that the asset value of each coin does not correspond to an obligation of another party which may be defaulted. The second reason to own precious metal coins is to have an asset which is private or anonymous. One man may choose to spend $100 on a dinner out, the other may choose to buy $100 worth of gold. The one man has spent his money, the other has saved it, privately. Although we live in a computerized world with ever less financial privacy, the owner of a precious metal is exercising a long tradition of financial privacy.

An observation which justifies the ownership of precious metals as a form of savings is that over time, all printed monies of all nations tend to experience inflation. Prices rise slowly, and the purchasing power of the money falls slowly. Governments and their citizens tend to enjoy inflation at low levels since it allows them to pay long term debts back with inflated currency. A positive side of mild inflation is that it tends to encourage savers to place their money into interest bearing investments and assets such as homes and stocks, in the hopes that the value of their investments will grow faster than inflation. A corollary to that is that everyone knows that only a fool would stuff their money into a mattress for 20 years. But precious metals, over the long term, tend to generally hold their value just about even with inflation. There are occasionally periods where the value of precious metals does not rise with inflation, but those are usually followed by periods where the price of the precious metals rises, sometimes suddenly, and usually finds a new equilibrium price near the level dictated by inflation.

For persons living in smaller countries where governments have a history of destroying the value of the currency, precious metals, primarily gold, represent an asset which can easily be sold but which will not suddenly lose value in a currency collapse. Even in modern times, families in many nations in economic trouble have been able to preserve their savings, through holding that savings in gold, rather than their local currency. Those families did not do this by suddenly converting their savings into gold during a financial collapse, they did this during the good times preceding the collapse, by slowly buying gold each time they had spare savings.

Small countries who get into trouble with their national debt, and print up a lot of new money trying to fix things, and then see a dramatic collapse in the value of their currency, are usually able to let a bunch of folks go bankrupt, borrow a few billon dollars from the International Monetary Fund, print a new currency and start over. They are usually much more concerned about arranging bailout loans than they are about the option to confiscate gold or regulate or tax sales of gold.

America is in a very different situation. We are already borrowing about $500 billion dollars per year from foreigners. This is about 5% of our entire economic activity (GDP). If America would get in trouble with the national debt, print up a lot of new money trying to fix things, and then see a consistent drop in the value of the currency, yes, many of us could go bankrupt, but who would bail us out??? If the dollar upon which we all have relied is losing value, the central banks of the world might prefer that Americans begin to save in other currencies such as Yen and Euros, but just as likely is that Americans begin to consider saving in gold. If this happens, the US Government and Federal Reserve Bank will certainly see that a rush away from dollars and into gold, by American citizens, is a vote of no confidence for the dollar. The temptation will be to restrict and regulate gold markets for Americans, trying to force them into holding dollars. But the real solution is for the Government to manage its spending and the FED to manage back real trust in the dollar.

The situation in silver is even more dramatic. Near the end of World War II, since America had been a large silver producer, and had also accepted silver as payment for war supplies, the United States Treasury (including circulating coin) and the US Strategic Silver Reserve held close to 10 billion ounces of silver. Since then, silver has become an essential component in thousands of modern products, and even though the amount of silver mined each year has grown, the demand for silver has grown so much faster, that most of those 10 billion ounces of silver reserve have been used up. As a matter of fact, the ongoing availability of silver from reserves has tended to keep the prices for silver low, and so the global mining industry has not made large new investments related to silver. In essence, the world has been experiencing a shortage of silver for several decades, and this has been hidden by the consumption of reserves. Now, those reserves are gone. Silver known to exist in vaults is only about 150-500 million ounces�2% to 5% of the reserves we once had. Enough to cover a couple short years of typical silver deficit, but that is not enough time for the global mining industry to build mines to produce an extra 200 million ounces per year of silver. A shortage of silver is now eminent. Certain silver investors have recognized the emergency situation in silver several years ago.

The situation with silver is that an acute shortage of silver (leading to certain industrial companies closing down production lines if they can't find silver) may now occur almost simultaneously with inflationary erosion in the value of various global currencies, particularly the dollar, and a trend away from financial investments such as stocks and bonds into commodities such as energy, food, lumber, metals, etc. In any financial environment, the rise in price caused by an acute and structural shortage in silver will attract new interest in silver investment, but this could even be more dramatic in a poor economic environment where inflation is once again high. Many of the world's poorest nations are still prolific savers. If even 1% of the savings generated in one year were to attempt to invest in silver, the price of silver would easily move to over $100/ounce. Historically, most serious investment advisors would advise owning about 10% of an investment portfolio in precious metals. If Americans now tried to convert even 1% of their portfolios into silver, massive increases in silver prices could occur.

The great fear of this author, and of many investors who already own precious metals as a protection against a national or global financial emergency, is that once such an emergency unfolds, and many investors rush to the precious metals, it will be very easy to confuse cause and effect and try to blame the rush into precious metals as the cause of the financial emergency, when it is in effect only the symptom. As a matter of fact, since precious metals trade globally, allowing free markets in all precious metals, and therefore a true market price, is a perfect mechanism for measuring the true state of monetary affairs of each nation. Even after a global financial emergency, as governments reestablish well managed monies and do better at balancing their budgets, the prices of precious metals will once again fall back to a new equilibrium.

Although it is predictable that governments in a crisis may attempt to take control of precious metals ownership and markets in their nation, and take control of precious metal mining properties, it should be remembered that the movement of small investors to own these metals in a time of crisis is a natural and very non-political human emotion.

American politicians must recognize the importance of allowing all precious metals to trade freely, and perhaps build improved monetary systems by incorporation of precious metals back into bank reserves. But, above all, the right of all Americans must be adamantly defended, to choose honest and legal investments, and be rewarded if those investments are profitable. Attempts to outlaw or restrict the ownership or trade of precious metals is a fundamental violation of principles of economic freedom and justice, and one would be encouraged to carefully scrutinize the motives of individuals asking to implement such laws.

Poor Old Solomon
Clink!
(07/01/2004; 11:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122687)
@ Federal_Reserves
That was a fascinating read about the decline of the Roman Empire. There are so many parallels with current affairs, it's scary ! The part I particularly noted was :-

The cornerstone of Diocletian's economic policy was to turn the existing ad hoc policy of requisitions to obtain resources for the state into a regular system. Since money was worthless, the new system was based on collecting taxes in the form of actual goods and services, but regularized into a budget so that the state knew exactly what it needed and taxpayers knew exactly how much they had to pay.

C! Sounds like an earlier version of burning confetti giving way to the real thing ! Thanks for sharing that with us.

C!
Ag Mountain
(07/01/2004; 11:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122688)
Who are they, Solomon Weaver? Aren't they people, too?
Some of your concerns might be the result of letting your fear run wild and your worries get a lot less urgent if you remind yourself that politicians put their pants on one leg at time like everybody else. Don't kid yourself that thier own personal stake in gold is any less than our own, and the reality is nobody wants to cut the floor out from under himself. So the trick isn't to worry about the floor being taken away but to be smart enough not to take the floor for granted. The more you have the more room you'll have to move.
Knallgold
(07/01/2004; 11:35:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122689)
Aristotle msg#: 122666
Wrong side of the bed?No Sir,I thought my tongue was enough in cheek to sound ironic.I might sharpen my english further for the next time.

So FreeGold has already been born officially,hmm,I thought it is still an embryo,an embryo none except the mother knows of.Then I have to rewrite my data,I guess with the date of birth you mean the WAG1 or the mark-to-market,if true,the "June rumour" of "ECB to free Gold" would mark pregnancy.

I had a lot of discussions with my father and altough he aknowledges fully Golds role present and past,he just doesn't believe in FreeGold "son,this will never come,they won't let it happen".What can I tell?You have to admit this concept needs some powerful backing,I mean just because it might be a good idea and you are a good guy won't bring it.(no offense meant)

I guess it is about not seeing the newborn,or,respectively, not seeing him because he is not there.Its also the major hurdle in talks with other people,though they do listen,especially if you tell them the Goldstandard is the past and something new with a positive role for Gold had to be created.But,will they go out and buy Gold?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/01/2004; 11:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 122690)
Take the first hassle-free step toward learning what others already know...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
Goldless Heathen
(07/01/2004; 11:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122691)
On a lighter(several ton) note
http://channels.netscape.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2004063023190001589162&dt=20040630231900&w=APO&coview=Man saves 1,000,000 pennies on a bet, can't get rid of pennies or collect the wager prize. Many of you 'prolly already saw this, nonethless here is the link;

TownCrier
(07/01/2004; 13:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122692)
Trichet: on inflation risk and on savings
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2004/html/pr040701.en.htmlECB Press Release:

1 July 2004 - Monetary policy decisions

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 3.00% and 1.00% respectively.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. today.
===============

(excerpt from the press conference)

Looking beyond the short term ... the outlook remains consistent with price stability, provided that wages develop moderately, in line with the latest evidence available. Nevertheless, there are some upside risks to price stability. The strength of global economic dynamism may continue to exert upward pressure on commodity prices, including oil prices. ...... Against this background, the potential risk of second-round effects via wage and pricing behaviour needs to be monitored closely. ..... Finally, measures of long-term inflation expectations derived from financial market indicators remain relatively high. While these indicators should be interpreted with caution, their development calls for particular vigilance.

Moving to the monetary analysis, the overall picture remains unchanged from our previous assessment. Annual M3 growth rates have fallen over recent months. While this decline partly reflects base effects, the portfolio decisions of firms and households are also returning to normal as financial uncertainties have receded. Indeed, there are signs that savings are increasingly being allocated to long-term assets outside M3 rather than to liquid monetary assets.

[Randy's interjected note: That is EXACTLY how you should view your own gold holdings... as savings from funds that have been allocated to long-term assets outside the Monetary System proper.]

However, despite the recent moderation of annual M3 growth, there remains substantially more liquidity in the euro area than is needed to finance non-inflationary growth. While a significant part of the excess liquidity has accumulated as a result of past portfolio shifts, low interest rates have also fuelled the build-up of liquid assets. The low level of interest rates also supports credit growth. The stock of excess liquidity, if it persists, may pose an upside risk to price stability over the medium term.

---------(policy statement available at url)--------

Bottom line: "Risk to price stability" means effectively a risk of weakening of the currency within the monetary system. Hence, the motivation for savings to be "increasingly allocated to long-term assets outside M3". Choose gold and thus get as far away as possible -- while still preserving your liquidity! Oh, happy day!

Call USAGOLD~Centennial for all the professional help needed to get the job done right.

R.
TownCrier
(07/01/2004; 15:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122693)
Trichet Q & A: on the BIS, and on being under control -- you may be surpised to learn by whom
http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2004/html/is040701.en.htmlPress Question:
Mr Trichet, I would like to refer to the annual report of the BIS. They raise more general questions and I would be interested in your opinion. One thing is that the BIS says there is an asymmetry in the reaction of central banks: they loosen in the downswing but they do not tighten in the upswing in the same way. So they say that you can do that once, but then you have no room for manoeuvre left and that is dangerous. What is your opinion on that?

Trichet:
First of all, the BIS is an international institution which is important, with a close relationship, as you know, with central banks and which is there precisely to ask pertinent questions or to suggest further deliberations in important areas at the global level because it is a fully international institution. And I am very happy myself to participate in meetings in Basel under the auspices of the BIS, in particular the G10 meeting, the global economy meeting which we organise every two months.

That being said, the question is stimulating. I trust that the question is not too much addressed to the ECB in your mind. But it is a theoretical question of great importance.

Are we symmetric? Are we asymmetric? How do you deal with this very important question of asset inflation? What kind of responsibility do we have ourselves as central bankers when taking account of asset inflation?

You know that we are reflecting a lot on that, that this institution has developed a special understanding and vision, and that we are a little bit original in the constituency of central banks the world over.

We consider that on top of the possible interaction between asset inflation and possible bubbles and the monetary policy oriented towards price stability, which is the rule of the game for all central banks, we are keen ourselves on having a monetary analysis. And we trust that it is a way not only to better anchor inflationary expectations, because in the long run inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but also a way of perhaps taking more closely into account phenomena like asset inflation and bubbles because they are fed by monetary expansion.

So we trust that perhaps � I say perhaps, I am cautious, I am prudent � our monetary policy concept is well-suited to this particular responsibility that is part of the overall BIS remark.


Question:
Mr Trichet, the Centre for European Policy Studies in its annual macroeconomic report this week had a number of criticisms of the ECB. One of them was that transparency had actually reduced because under your predecessor at these press conferences we had a feel for how the debate was evolving within your rate-setting meetings. It also suggested that you should have a bias. I wonder how you respond to these criticisms and whether you could, perhaps, fill us in on how the debate is evolving or has evolved in the meetings?

Trichet:
Frankly speaking, it seems to me that all the criticism about the absence of transparency of the ECB can be taken with a grain of salt.

Do you know another central bank that holds a press conference immediately after the decision of the monetary policy council? Do you know another central bank that produces four or five full pages assessing the situation, expressing the diagnosis, not in two paragraphs but in a more detailed way?

Do you remember that, when we launched the single monetary policy concept of the euro at the start of 1999, the state of the art of central banking was to say absolutely nothing at the moment of the decision and to wait for five weeks before giving an indication of the reason why a decision had been taken? So, not only do we try to be as transparent as possible but also we, more or less, contributed to changing, for the sake of transparency, the state of the art of communication in central banking.

So, all that being said, I cannot invent a bias where we have none, and change for your pleasure the assessment of my colleagues in the Governing Council.

We try to do our best. We are under the control of public opinion. We are under the control of markets. We are under the control of savers and investors, and not only in Europe but the world over.

On the basis of our credibility they are managing trillions of euro, and we try our best to maintain the credibility that we have in their eyes.

And I mention this again because it is very important: we shipped to the euro area the yield curve that was the best yield curve available before the euro area was set up. That has made it possible to generalise for 306 million inhabitants a level of market interest rates that was previously the privilege of only a fraction of those 306 million inhabitants.

To the extent that we started from scratch, this relied entirely upon the credit of stability that was given to us on the basis of our credibility. The credibility of the institution. The credibility, perhaps, of the transparent interaction with you and, through you, with the full body of observers, savers and investors. And also the credibility of our monetary policy concept, which -- at the beginning -- was perhaps criticised a little but it is now less and less criticised, it seems to me.

-----(from press conference at url)------

Again, "We are under the control of public opinion. We are under the control of markets. We are under the control of savers and investors, and not only in Europe but the world over. ... THEY are managing trillions of euro..."

And to this point, I add the remark in the previous post citing Trichet's introductory comments: "Annual M3 growth rates have fallen over recent months. While this decline partly reflects base effects, the portfolio decisions of firms and households are also returning to normal as financial uncertainties have receded. Indeed, there are signs that savings are increasingly being allocated to long-term assets outside M3 rather than to liquid monetary assets."

Taken as a whole, you can see his comments regarding control are exactly right. Remember FOA's truism -- own gold and thereby you control your would-be controllers.

With a mark-to-market reserve structure in effect upon its own gold holdings, the ECB is indeed signalling "that this institution has developed a special understanding and vision, and that we are a little bit original in the constituency of central banks the world over".

Could gold possibly ask for a better Friend? "Forth! And fear no darkness!"

R.
Belgian
(07/01/2004; 15:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122694)
@Knallgold
Just before leaving on holidays...one more reflexion on "FreeGold"...

We all, never realized (suspected), for more than 2 decades, that Gold was "un-free" in the first place and now we don't believe in the possibility (reality) of FreeGold....

See you later Knallgold...
CoBra(too)
(07/01/2004; 16:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122695)
Free Gold? - ...
I'm kind'a reluctant to post again on this august forum. A forum, which has helped keeping my sanity for many past years - and yes, I believe in Gold!

Do I believe in "Free Gold"? That may be more a matter of semantics - free gold, after all is a personal choice to accumulate for long term saving or not.

Oh, and yes it was only in the land of the free, where possession of gold was prohibited for almost two generations, ever. No-where else in the world has confiscation of PM's ever happened in this sense. OK, it was FDR's New Deal, which dictated strong measures against the depression of the 1930`s and the new deal only prolonged the suffering.

Anyway, GOLD does not have to be freed from any shackles. Whether its the ESF (PPT), LBMA, Crimex or any other entity papering over the real price finding menachism. Real gold will always find its real price. Well, gold is the only real price and in the end all real assets will be priced according to gold's dictate.

In essence, I'm really getting a bit tired of the same old tirades of the coming of 'free gold'! Gold is always free and at liberty to ascertain its freedom by manefesting its challenge to any fiat bondage ever.

That's what gold is just re-estrablishing now - and doesn't and hasn't needed any free gold advocates ever.
Gold is and was its own intermediator - and it will carry on in the same fashion ... gold for the free - cb2











Goldendome
(07/01/2004; 17:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122696)
Manipulation in the transport index?
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Lately--the past few months--chartists and Dow theorists have been confused by inconsistencies in the stock markets. The industrials seem wanting to fall, but don't... and the transports seem unwilling to confirm weakness in the industrials.

Today on a neighboring site a technician, Martin Goldberg, in an article, shows how to control the stock market for $12 million/day. Peanuts to any group with access to unlimited money (like access to Gov'mnt money).

Goldberg's argument, briefly, discusses how easily and cheaply the transport index could be manipulated through only a few weighted stocks in that index. And guess what? Those stocks ALL show strong support over the past year!

He also asserts that this type of low budget influence would create far less notice than throwing large wads of dough at major stocks.

The confusion caused by the transports refusing to confirm any Dow industrial decline has caused some to buy the industrials and others to fear shorting it.

Click on over there and read it yourself...not too long an article.
Cavan Man
(07/01/2004; 18:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122697)
Hey Cobra...
"Gold is and was its own intermediator - and it will carry on in the same fashion ... gold for the free - cb2"

Good thought on this weekend CB and....pooh pooh psychophantitis...CM


R Powell
(07/01/2004; 19:37:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122698)
Free Gold
CoBra(too)...post 122695...agree entirely. Thanks for saying it.
rich
Ned
(07/01/2004; 19:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122699)
Saddam's a funny, funny guy!
A prosecuting lawyer gave his monologue today about the charges facing the ousted Iraqi leader. After several minutes of rambling a lengthy series of 'charges' Mr. Hussein was asked if he understood the 'charges' of human rights abuse and crimes against humanity laid against him.

Mr. Hussein responded that the 'only person that has violated human rights and has commited crimes against humanity was George W. Bush.' (paraphrase)

Mr. Saddam Hussein.........comedian.

Sundeck
(07/01/2004; 20:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122700)
As Greenspan Chases Inflation, Critics Shout, 'Faster!'
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/01/business/01place.html?thWha...even the New York Times has seen what is happening.

Snip:

"...
Inflation and market interest rates are far ahead of Alan Greenspan's federal funds rate, which he raised yesterday to 1.25 percent. Now the nation will see how well Mr. Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, plays the game of catch-up.

Fears that Mr. Greenspan has opened wide the door to inflation in the United States by keeping interest rates too low for too long prompted a sell-off in the bond market recently. That has pushed short- and long-term rates far above the federal funds rate and produced the worst quarter for bond investors in almost 25 years.
..."

Sundeck:
Mr Greenspan has little alternative, in my view. He is like a lumberjack riding a round log in a raging river. A bit this way...oops! A bit the other way...dang! How DO you ride this thing?

In my view, it would bring joy to Greenspan's heart (and to the Treasury) to see price increases (inflation) take off, followed by wages, followed by prices, followed by wages,...etc....a lovely theme, with Bernanke's printing press chugging in counterpoint!

Devalue that dollar, trash repayment on debt...the best alternative by far (for the US). Just like the 70's? No? Wake up Paul Volker II, your time is coming...

;-)

specie-man
(07/02/2004; 00:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122701)
Definition of "Free Gold".

.
.
.

"FREE GOLD" is the gold that you hold in your hand.

.
.
.

Aristotle
(07/02/2004; 03:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122702)
FreeGold for KnallGold and for CoBra, too
Knallgold's own Pappy says, "son, this will never come, they won't let it happen."

Knallgold himself says, "You have to admit this concept needs some powerful backing, I mean just because it might be a good idea and you are a good guy won't bring it."

Awww shucks... thanks for suggesting I'm a good guy. But the truth is, sometimes I wake up in the morning and all I wanna do is kick that dog for barking so damn much.

Maybe, just for now, the fact that I don't is reason enough to claim the title?

Lemme let you in on a little secret -- there's really only one thing that scares a central banker enough to keep him lying awake at night. A profligate government with rampant budget deficits? Nawww... that merely pisses 'em off. The monster under the bed for a true blue central banker creeps and crawls and answers to the name of Systemic Risk.

The innate fear and desire to vanquish that monster is a powerful force in our favor, my friend. That alone is worth a helluva lot more toward reaching our goal of FreeGold than me just hanging around being some sorta "good guy."

CoBra, the only way I can make sense of your #122695 post is to conclude that you haven't quite yet figured out what the heck FreeGold means, or maybe more charitably, you haven't figured out what WE mean by it (in which case the fault is surely ours.(??))

You talk about Gold in need of no freeing from shackles and that real Gold is already (actually you used the word "always") "free and at liberty" -- and here's the part I don't follow -- "to ascertain its freedom... blah blah blah..."

To my mind, Gold ascertains its freedom in the very act of finding its price through the help of the particular functioning of the nearest available market, what with its quirks and all -- them being the nature of the unfree problem. How can a Real Physical Ounce stand up and be fairly counted (or marked), pricewise that is, when surrounding it are dozens of impostors decked out in superficially convincing papier m�ch�?

To carry onward with your lingo, the lower Gold finds its price in that crowed field, the more I'd say it's ASCERTAINED that it ain't as free as it oughta be!! The market ain't free to hang a proper price on RARE Real Gold until such time as the masquerading imposters are stripped of their papery powers of financial illusion. Who c/would engineer such a thing? Weeeellllll,,,, we all know how central bankers feel about elements that unnecessarily engender Systemic Risk...

Real Gold. Its time will come to be free. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Knallgold
(07/02/2004; 04:44:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122703)
FreeGold
Thanks all for responsing,particularly Belgian (scepticism can be a trap sometimes...) and Aristotle,good arguments. Unlike Cobra(too) I'm not tired of this discussions.

FreeGold is mostly about DERIVATIVE free Gold,I think we should give it a chance (the concept and physical Gold).Question is where starts the term derivative?Options,futures sure.A Goldmine?Not really,it produces Gold,your own fault if you think its like Gold.But you can buy physical Gold from a Goldmine.

And then there was this discussion about Money being a derivative of Gold (or vice versa?),I'm still thinking about that.But the weekend is calling now...
SteveH
(07/02/2004; 06:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122704)
Cheerleading
Free gold is understood I believe.

I am with Cobra(too), a long-established poster, because one thing (amongst others) that I don't like about CNBC is the constant cheerleading comments about something that has both sunshine and shadows. Never hearing of shadows there, always hearing about sunshine speaks of the need for balanced coverage. As it applies there, it applies here.

Cobra(too), you would be missed.
Henri
(07/02/2004; 07:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122705)
Not quite haiku
The universe is conspiring for us to succeed in our quest
Yet too many choose to bring to a test
the things they think are for the best
Toolie
(07/02/2004; 07:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122706)
U.S. Job Growth Slows Sharply in June
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040702&ID=3853709Snip:
The Labor Department said only 112,000 jobs were created last month, far fewer than the 250,000 that Wall Street analysts had anticipated. April and May new-job totals were revised down, to 324,000 and 235,000 respectively, from 346,000 and 248.000.
The unemployment rate was unchanged, as expected, at 5.6 percent. (end snip)

The decline in job growth continues to accelerate as the lingering effects of fiscal stimulus dissipate. "Bout face Al. This month's report falls short of the estimated 150,000 new jobs that must be created each month to maintain a stable unemployment rate. With more and more wealth generating activities off-shored, the workforce becomes further dependant on government employment and repatriated corporate profits, the latter just isn't happening.

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound dollar plummeting toward its intrinsic value. That's gonna be one impressive crater.
GratefulForGold
(07/02/2004; 07:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122707)
Euro/Dollar/FreeGold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/wallenwein062904.htmlGood Morning!

I happened to read Wallenwein's lastest at the neighboring castle and, in light of some current posts here, thought some of you might appreciate it. It contains nothing new for most of you but any newer reader might benefit from his theories/conclusions. (And, of course, if what he writes needs further clarification or debate, Belgian, Ari and many others here can easily rectify that situation!)

Despite his title "THE EURO: Another Broken Promise?" he mentions little of the Euro but does do a very nice simile on "weightlessness" that is entertaining and seems appropo.

In the end, he leaves it open ended as to whether the Euro
will accomplish its goal. However, he does add a "burden" to the Euro/FreeGold concept with his view of a "parallel bullion currency."


It's always nice to come to this castle and bask in the glow of (and become renewed by) the chemistry of wonderful minds in debate and overall communion!

Thank all of you. Though usually silent, I am here in the shadows, absorbing the wisdom.

My best to everyone, and if a US citizen, may this July 4th weekend be a safe and joyous celebration and reaffirmation of the principles upon which this country was founded.

Lady GFG

Clink!
(07/02/2004; 08:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122708)
Volatility
At 8.30 this morning, the USDX went from 89.0 to 88.25 within the 5 min window of the chart I happen to be looking at, and continued on down to 88.1 in the following hour. This was presumably due to the poor employment figures. I'm not sure about other people, but it impresses the heck out of me that there can be that huge a change in notional value in such a short period of time and that there is so much free cash sloshing about in the money markets for them to move that quickly.
Stranger still is that this kind of thing should happen at a time when the volatility of the stock markets is at an all-time low.
Of course, the POG reacted nicely, only to be capped at $6, as usual ....
C!
TownCrier
(07/02/2004; 11:21:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122709)
Contest essay judges would like a helping hand...
http://www.usagold.com/contests/June2004.htmlIf you visit the contest page, you will find a hyperlink atop that page that take you to a chronological listing of all essay entries. (see url for direct shortcut)

After a week of reading, sorting, pondering and sorting some more, we still feel the greater part of the challenge is before us to narrow the field to its final prize-winners.

You are hereby asked to see what we are up against and gain for yourself a sense of the challenge we face. Feel free to read all the posts and pick your top three entrants (not including yourself -- we will automatically give your own essay extra credit in our final considerations for your willingness to lend a hand).

Then, don't assign or indicate a final rank to them, but simply post your choice for top three by listing the three posters' handles in ALPHABETICAL order.

We'll use your suggestions (along with the special credit mentioned above) to help us reach our final decisions and break the ties.

Thanks!

R.
Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/02/2004; 12:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122710)
Free gold,it's already free?

Quite frankly,I think CB2 must of stumbled into a room filled with nitrous oxide.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/02/2004; 12:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122711)
A declaration of independence for your savings
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Change paper into gold!
mikal
(07/02/2004; 12:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122712)
Gold Haikus
Gold: BCBN (Buy cheap buy now,
for Aristotle)

Paper mache gold,
Shiny confetti freefall-
Life of the party

Most haiku's don't need a title, e.g.:

Free hand for free trade.
Free birds with free will buy gold-
Spirit hops, leaps, soars.

Thanks for reading.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/02/2004; 13:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122713)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

(closing market excerpts)

Gold futures rose for a third session Friday to close at a four-day high as disappointing figures on U.S. job growth weighed on the dollar and boosted investment demand for the metals....

Job growth in the United States slowed in June after three months of robust hiring, the Labor Department estimated Friday. "The monthly unemployment report indicates that the Fed may have to abstain from raising rates for the remainder of the year," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services....

The news sparked the biggest bond rally in six months, sending interest rates and the dollar into a dive, both of which favored a move to gold for portfolio insurance. August gold settled up $2.30 at $398.70 an ounce, extending Thursdays $3.40 rally.

Stop-loss buying above $400 extended the gain to $401.50 from a low of $392.60. But after the opening flurry, trading was quiet as the market watched the clock before a midday COMEX close for the July 4th holiday weekend. U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday to observe Independence Day....

Regular trading will resume Tuesday...

The jobs report bolstered confidence that the Federal Reserve might not embark on an aggressive tightening of monetary policy after it raised interest rates Wednesday, ending a historic 3-1/2 year period of accommodation where interest rates were at their lowest since the late 1950s. The government also reported that new orders at U.S. factories fell 0.3 percent in May, half the expected 0.6 percent decline, but still suggesting a slowdown in second quarter growth....

The dollar was sharply lower against the euro following the job growth data, and the move sent many investors to gold as a hedge against losses. "Gold's strength is being supported by the perception the U.S. dollar will only get weaker over time," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, a financial publication...

The euro jumped to a 3-1/2 week high at $1.2324 as the dollar fell. Dollar-priced gold looks cheaper to overseas buyers when their currencies rise...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----
Buongiorno!
(07/02/2004; 13:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122714)
essay contest

Ah! Troppo lavoro!! But here are three of several essays that I really liked. Confession: Anything past about 5-600 words was just too much to get my feeble thoughts around, so if management wants, they may throw this out as being prejudiced and not part of the rules. Fair enough. Perhaps 'twood be considered in the future?

Great use of facts, projections, metaphor, and opinion throughout. It is truly an honor to be in this great group! Difficult it was, but here goes.....

Black Blade
CB-2
Tevye
And many others!
Ciao!
Buongiorno!
Remarx
(07/02/2004; 13:53:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122715)
********** Top Three **********
Caradoc
mamoose
wehappyfew

What an education, reading through all the essays! I thorougly enjoyed it.

-r
Toolie
(07/02/2004; 15:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122716)
Best of the best
I gave the page about 90 minutes attention. TC, you have my sympathy.
In alphabetical order.
Boilermaker
specie-man
Steve22
Aristotle
(07/02/2004; 15:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122717)
FreeGold sunshine for SteveH (RE: "anti-cheeleader" post 122704)
Sounds to me like you could use a refresher course in the nature of sunshine.

The sun doesn't send down its rays *balanced* in both light and shadow. (And neither does the Truth need arrive *balanced* with lies on forked tongue.)

The light IS precisely what it IS, Light, and thanks to it, and its singular illuminating quality, you are only thus able to ascertain the depth of The Shadow that presently surrounds you.

Without the Light, you would know nothing from either illumination or shadow -- you would know only utter darkness. And utter darkness, pal, without even a shaft of singular light to give it meaning by its very contrast, is in itself utterly without meaning.

But then, you probably already knew all this, it's just that your keyboard hijacked control while you were having breakfast? Sheeeesh, the state we're in.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Goldless Heathen
(07/02/2004; 16:06:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122718)
Essay Contest
I did not submit an essay. I did download and print and read all the essays so I don't know if my opinion should be included. But now I certainly appreciate all the work the judges had to do.

I just want to mention that on Friday morning after reading Caradoc's essay I decided to give up writing mine.

Why attempt to re-invent the wheel or shoot for second place?
CoBra(too)
(07/02/2004; 18:33:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122719)
Free Gold?
Oh, Ari I'm ever so sorry to have provoked your wrath on still not getting what "Free Gold" means.

Of course, I do know what it means geologically, but then again you disparage the miners of the metal, either being shysters to sell their product to the legal tender of current day and overuse, or even sell it before it's mined to the same - with all of its known effects.

I guess more of your ridicule will be directed to me when I would respectfully ask to - ah, let us have your interpretation of what Free Gold on your terms really means.

... and really, Ari, I've sensed some kind of exhaustion in your temper lately. Is it that free gold hasn't arrived yet, or is it that the weight of the metal is still too low to add up to too much acquisition of the same which bears you down. After all it's a great position to be in; And it would also explain your bad temper, even going as far as being utterly rude. And I don't mind being rude to me, as I may have deserved it.

Anyway, to close my case with my posting here, I just would like to add that zealots are not a real help to any case! And in particular zealots of your ilk are somewhat suspect anyway.

Don't ever worry, I'm still executing my long term strategy to go gold and have been kind'a successfull in acquiring much more than would seem my due in your (im-)practical and one-sided philosdophy.

Don't worry just blast my incompetence of understanding your tirades - I've probably been around these markets much longer than you! Bla bla... and still don't have your easy answer -shame on me!

Cheers cb2

PS: What happened to the Ari posting a great essay about Oil some years back? Just considering the merits you've in all reality have had and lost for me... Ciao
Goldendome
(07/02/2004; 18:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122720)
Top Three essays--

There were a lot of good essays. It has to be hard, being the judge. Perhaps, limiting length as well as brevity would help the cause?

I choose three that I felt answered ALL three questions asked:
In relation to the U.S. economy?, the world economy?, and Gold?; and they were able to do it in a succinct, Short essay. Spending some time on each issue.

They are:

Rocky
Buongiorno
Toolie
Goldendome
(07/02/2004; 19:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122721)
OK--I get it! Alphabetical listing of 3 essayists!
Buongiorno
Rocky
Toolie
Gandalf the White
(07/02/2004; 19:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122722)
STATUS report on the Judging of the ESSAY CONTEST !!!
There has been a SLIGHT delay in the announcement of the Essay Contest "THREE" WINNERS ! Perhaps you all can understand the problem, as there were almost half as many GREAT ENTRIES to the Essay Contest as there were in the "relative easy" POG guessing contest !

The Hobbit "Panel of Judges" requested additional advise after the "first cut" of entries -- They ask me if I would go and ask SIR MK if he would consider awarding TEN "FIRST PRIZES" ? ------

I then quickly sent them back into "deliberations", with instructions to consider if THEY wished to provide the additional NINE uncirculated U.S. Liberty $10. Gold coins from their collections ! THEY then, quickly determined that THAT request may be a little tooooo much --- so they re-evaluated their rankings, and suggested that perhaps a total of at least EIGHT prizes could be awarded !
I had a sit-down meeting with them and threated to take away their pipe-weed and told them that I myself would review their top SIX ranked entries.

They cluched their pipe-weed closely, and smilingly gave them to me !

I have been reading, rereading and rerereading these and have have "now seen" their delema !
BUT -- Knot to worry --

I shall simply send them to SIR MK and let him determine the WINNERS !! <;-)

WHEN -- that will be is the QUESTION !
Perhaps on the FOURTH of JULY !!!
Stay tuned.
GW
Caradoc
(07/02/2004; 22:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122723)
top three
Using alphabetical order to indicate a three-way tie for first place...

DryWasher
Remarx
Toolie

Rationale...

First off, there were several essays ranging from thought-provoking to persuasive (including two so good I've already forwarded the text to friends) that simply didn't address all three questions. No matter how "good" these were, they qualify only for partial credit and so don't make my "top three."

As the mirror image reversal of this problem, Toolie's essay is arguably the most straightforward essay in competition, knocking the questions down one at a time while literally "essaying" to present his opinion. This makes my top three even though I doubt that the "required energy efficiencies" will actually come about so as to give dense population centers the edge of enhanced productivity.

Since the outcome of all three questions is a matter of probabilities, the only "true" answer is the spectrum of possible outcomes. Both DryWasher (short and sweet) and Remarx (a more detailed analysis) present us their versions of best case/ worst case and do the most to make us think. Bravo!

With my top three out of the way, I've got to add that Specie-man also deserves a prize for sheer creative genius.

Final thoughts... For future contests, a word limit would make the judges' job a lot easier as would a short list of criteria. Since "essay" means "attempt" and the contestants are attempting to present their opinion, I'd suggest that clarity and persuasiveness be the primary criteria.

Caradoc
Black Blade
(07/02/2004; 23:11:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122724)
Essay Contest

Gee Gandy and Panel, I sure do not envy you all with the decisions you have to make. With so many thought provoking essays and involving so many issue ranging from geopolitical, geological, regulatory to depleting resources and economics of the hydrocarbon society where hydrocarbons (fuels to petrochemical and feedstock - oil and natural gas) are the life blood of any established industrialized society to the newly emerging economics vying for the same product where supply and the ability to increase supply significantly is rather limited (Remember - gasoline and diesel fuels are just "by-products" of crude oil) and yet are crucial to most societies. The supply-demand issues on this crucial product alone do and will continue to play havoc with currencies, trade, and inflation/stagflation. Every postwar (WWII) has been preceded by an "energy crisis".

There were many interesting and well though out essays and I think because we are all affected by the cost (rising or falling). Some I agreed with whole-heartedly and others I did not completely agree with, however, we are subject to our personal experiences and what we percieve by how the issue is presented by (mostly) the mainstream media. Much the same as how the same media deals with mining (base and precious metals mining as well as basic commodities). Gee, I could have easily just reprinted "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man") I posted here a couple of times in the past (even in the early days of this forum). Nothing much has changed except the increase in demand as the Third World emerges from its cocoon and attempts to "catch up" to industrialized neighbors. The issue of oil and natural gas will continue to plague the world economies for years to come. Even the promise of a "Hydrogen Society" is a farce as the tight bond of H20 will make the energy input to break off Hydrogen a non-starter without a free energy source such as geothermal in Iceland for example or a low cost expansion of nuclear energy (very difficult politically and economically at present). The hydrogen will come from methane (natural gas) CH4 where the bond is easily broken and the Hydrogen separated at low cost.

Then there are the "dreamers" who see biomass to solar as the ultimate answer. Conservation can only help but we are also in the "New Economy" with even higher demands on energy (not just fuel saving internal combustion engines and hybrids alone will not have much impact - especially with 1.3 billion Chinese looking to become more like mobile Americans (and don't for get the nearly 1 billion Indians to the south). Perhaps a "clean coal technology" at a reasonable cost may be available down the road so to speak. Still, oil and natural gas are critical components of our western society and demand is fast outstripping supply - just forget about the refining and pipeline capacity for now and think of the expansion in demand).

We already know what will happen to currencies and the major bankers tied down with $trillions in unsteady derivatives and US debt as reaserves even as the Federal readies to keep raising rates (lowering the value of goverment paper). No doubt as to why China's four major banks are buying Gold and other foreign currencies to diversify away from the crumbling US dollar. Even now the Chinese politicos are looking at changing the Yaun-Dollar peg and allowing a free trade in Gold and even encoraging personal investment of its people to private ownership where such a thing was unthinkable until relatively recently. I would not be surprised to see the dollar tank after the November elections and to see Gold, Silver, and Platinum Group Metals even double or triple by year-end. Now is the time for "portfolio insurance" if you have not already done so. The Castle Guards (MK, Jonathon, George Cooper, Marie, etc.) stand ready at the gates/vault door to give advice or to "cut a deal" to exchange debasing US dollars for the "real deal".

Happy fourth of July - or more correctly "Independence Day"!

- Black Blade

BTW, during the Revolutionary War against Britain - how many colonists supported the fight?

Answer: 37%! Yes, bravery and taking the first step is the hardest on a long journey (buy Gold and Silver now at these "cheap" prices while you can). Also now you know where a lot of Canadians had their origins after the defeat of Cornwallis to George Washington as French warships sat offshore when the French had the "fire of fight in their hearts" under the direction of ole Lafayette.
Steve22
(07/02/2004; 23:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122725)
*Contest Vote*
I think I may be well qualified to be fair in judging, in that I am new around here and haven't developed any biases toward or against one character or another. So, here are my picks for the top three:(and with respect to all the rules of judging)


caradoc - (For precipitating the series of events that challenged me to think of judgement day in ways I had never conceived. Scary!)

mamoose - (for taking the leap to propose solutions and for questioning complacency)


remarx - (For placing an emphasis on the highly important, "Limits to Growth")

Here Here For all the writers!

Aristotle
(07/02/2004; 23:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122726)
CoBra(too): "you disparage the miners of the metal"
*WHO* are you reading???

That part was off the mark, but thanks for your overall assessment, though. I'll be glad to go down in history officially now as the first so christened fiat-using, Gold-holding, non-conspiratorializing *zealot*. Sheeeeeeeeeeeeesh. (Where's my dictionary? Z- Z- zzzzz...)

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Black Blade
(07/02/2004; 23:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122727)
Market Wrap Up - Wood
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

If we turn to the work of the great Dow theorist, Robert Rhea, he says, "Whenever one average pushes above a previous high and the other indicator refuses to take the hurdle, the market is reflecting uncertainty�..." Rhea also stated that when the averages were not "in gear" or "when the averages disagree, they are shouting be careful." I know that most people are very skeptical of the bearish case. This is completely understandable because of the duration of the bear market rally. This rally has served to suck the bulls in and even served to neuter most bears, sucking them right in as well. We have seen sentiment readings at levels not seen since 1987, so this makes perfect sense. Most technicians have complained about how their system or indicators have not worked. This has served to discredit them and even cause many to question or abandon their own work.

Black Blade: Tim and I have had our disagreements (on another site), but he does stick to his guns so you gotta respect that at least. But he is TA and I am FA so our take is usually like "comparing apples to oranges". He even called me "scathing" once in one of his articles about the "so-called" Gold anaylist Andy Smith - I still chuckle over that one. Times will continue to be challenging for some year to come. Just get prepared for the possible pitfalls in the future. Your wealth and savings may very well depend on it. (You know where to call and who to talk to - USAGOLD).
Goldless Heathen
(07/03/2004; 00:52:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122728)
Independent Gold?
I am posting this late because it is somewhat a rambling waste of time-my apologies.

If you have a lot of gold and you store it in a vault and they give you a key or card or code they essentially give you a receipt. I'm not so lucky but I am guessing in many cases it is a paper or digital receipt. Is this also like owning paper gold?

I realize it could just as well be your antique furniture in the vault and the isuues are not, on the surface, about 'free gold' but simply about security and private property rights. Vault or storage unit owner goes belly up you cannot get to stored valuables in some way.

I know this is a poorly formed thought but it has been nagging me nonetheless. Is there some analogy between "vaulted gold', as above, and gold still in a mine that you buy rights to, or even paper gold?

Initially it seems the comparison fails because, as I said, it could be antiques and not gold in the vault, but not the mine and the risks are about security not scarcity or market forces/tricks.

But the 'vaulted gold' in some ways seems no more in the owner's possesion than the gold 'belonging' to the owner of a mining or paper gold note.

If fiat currencies fail and there is not enough gold to pay the
paper( I hope I have this somewhere near right) are other circumstances sufficiently unstable to leave 'vaulted gold' at risk? Or could they follow, or MUST they, for gold to be really free gold unfettered by artificial forces?

So going beyond this apocalyptic scenario can this apply to free gold. Can free gold( again I really am rambling and confused, my apologies) 'ascertain' when it is owned in very large quantities. Such ownership has a cost of security and seems to beg for 'lending from it' and so on . . . For gold to do it's thing must more people own it and in fewer large concentrations?

Could that concentration level be as low as what one might feel personally capable of providing security for? Is the cost of ownership(security costs) an incentive to lend and so begins anew another mess?

By nature or default or Providence will gold only be independent when it is distributed more widely and proportionately?
Black Blade
(07/03/2004; 01:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122729)
U.S. May Spending Rises 1%; Inflation Accelerates
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=home&sid=avA8y.Zx1ZEk
Snippit:

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending rose 1 percent last month, the biggest rise since October 2001, and a gauge of inflation matched the largest gain in almost 14 years as the economy and job market improved. ``The underlying inflation rate has moved up significantly over a relatively short period,'' said David Greenlaw, chief U.S. fixed income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The increase in purchases followed a 0.2 percent rise in April and reflected more spending on automobiles and other durable goods, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The report's price index rose 0.5 percent, in part because of fuel prices, and hasn't been higher since September 1990. ``The obvious risk is that there is no let-up on the inflation front and the Fed is forced to abandon the `measured' approach to tightening,'' Greenlaw said.

``A surprising portion of the strength in U.S. income growth through the first and second quarters has been absorbed by price increases,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``Consumption has been impressive throughout 2004, but the inflation bite was hammered home in May.'' Englund lowered his second-quarter growth forecast to 4.5 percent from 5 percent. Economists at Morgan Stanley reduced their growth estimate to 3.5 percent from 4.2 percent.

The personal consumption expenditures price index has not risen more than 0.5 percent since September 1990. The gauge rose 2.5 percent from May 2003. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, a gauge tracked by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other policy makers, the prices index rose 0.2 percent for a third month and is up 1.6 percent since May 2003.

The increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index reflected a jump in gasoline costs. The average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump rose to a record $2.10 in the week ended May 24 compared with an April average of $1.84 a gallon, according to the latest figures from the Department of Energy.


Black Blade: Quite a change in sentiment from these clowns but even as they admit inflation is back they are typical economists - always in a positive move in spite of the evidence of much higher "real" inflation rates with more to come. They are as sheep believing anything they are told or lying and keeping up a brave front. Economists (especially at large investment houses are generally wrong - they are more like mathimatically challenged astrologers, palm readers, etc. than those who dig into the data and read the fine print). It will get very ugly even though oil is still rather "cheap" as demand rises. Inflation adjusted it should be selling around $60/bbl.
Black Blade
(07/03/2004; 01:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122730)
Heating bills expected to burn more money - Unless supply issues solved, outlook bad
http://www.freep.com/money/business/energy-bar12e_20040702.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- As if steep gasoline prices this summer weren't enough to make consumers grumpy, the energy crunch also could lead to higher home heating costs next winter. While weather is a major determinant of winter heating costs, analysts said homeowners in the Northeast and Midwest may get hit harder than usual even if temperatures are in their normal range. "I would be shocked if we don't see soaring natural gas and heating oil prices next winter," said Tom Kloza, director of Oil Price Information Service, a Lakewood, N.J., provider of industry data.

Crude prices are more than 25 percent higher than a year ago. Another concern is that refiners, who are focused on maximizing production of high-priced gasoline and diesel fuel, could fall behind in making next winter's heating oil supply. Nationwide inventories of distillate fuel, which includes diesel and heating oil, are 7.7 million barrels below the 5-year average for this time of year at 110.9 million barrels, according to Energy Department statistics. "Whichever way you look at it," the agency said in a recent report, "distillate fuel stocks will need to build at a faster rate in order for there to be enough supplies on hand this upcoming winter."

The unusually expensive heating oil at this time of year presents yet another problem, according to Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. "What these high pries have done is to have forced most heating oil distributors to put their buying plans on hold for next winter," Beutel said. "Inherent in that is a risk. And the risk is that prices won't come down."

The other main fuel used to heat homes, natural gas, has stayed expensive this year due to strong demand -- from the electric power and manufacturing sectors -- and the run-up in oil prices. The price of natural gas has been significantly higher in recent years because domestic production has not kept pace with demand.


Black Blade: Not a surprise at all. Refining is running flat out and like a hamster on a treadmill we are not gaining any ground. Thankfully it is not inflationary according to our government leaders. Gotta love that "core rate" BS. Ah well, we shall see what fun develops now that we are in mid-summer and some US refiners are closing up shop. "Interesting Times" indeed.
mamoose
(07/03/2004; 04:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122731)
End of cheap oil contest

I have been assigned to watch the results of the contest while mamoose is at the cottage, completely out of touch, living the simple life she expects to come. Therefore, she will not be able to enter 'the opinion' phase of the contest. Sorry.

I do know the supply of oil has been a concern to her since the early 70's, the last oil crisis.

Great Albino Bat
(07/03/2004; 04:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122732)
Goldless Heathen: your worries are justified.

Yes, owning gold has its problems. Problems that are "built in" to the metal, and you can't get away from them, no matter how you slice it.

Gold is liquid, gold is ultimate liquidity. That is an economic term or a financial term. But also, gold is as liquid as water, as far as possession goes. Can you keep water in your hands, poured out from a pitcher? Water will run through your fingers, and in a manner of speaking, so will gold. It is hard to hang on to it, very easy to lose it.

If your gold gets tangled up in a legal problem, Poof! That's the last you will see of it. Where is it? Who has it?

Some people - a lot of people, in fact - don't want these problems that come with owning gold. So, they do not accumulate gold, and so they get into much, much worse problems. Sure, they keep their numbers quite securely in the bank, they know to the penny how big the number is of their dollars, or pesos, or pounds, or euros. But, their big problem coming at them is, How much will those numbers buy later on? Even Greenspan cannot tell us what a Dollar IS.

Life presents problems. You can only choose, up to a point, what sort of problem you prefer to deal with.

There is no such thing as perfect security. Whatever you do, you are at risk of losing your gold, if you have any. You have to choose the lowest risk alternative, and live with it: Bury it, put it in a safe, in a security box, in a private vault, in an allocated bank deposit - everything carries a risk.

Americans seem to have been culturally formed to avoid risk at all costs. Insurance for everything under the sun. They appear to be afraid of everything, afraid of the natural risks of living. They won't eat bananas with black spots, though these are the sweetest and tastiest: "Might be wormy!"

Gold will serve you well, but you must be big enough to own it.

The GAB
Arcticfox
(07/03/2004; 10:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122733)
From Richard Russell site..
The e-mail below received Friday is extremely intelligent and important. All I can say is -- Do I have smart subscribers or what?!

Richard,

Expanding fiscal policy in order stimulate growth during a "Balance Sheet Recession" is predicated upon the capacity to do so. It is doubtful that the government of a country, such as the U.S., which runs large external deficits on account of negligible domestic savings will have the capacity, particularly given the large nominal size of the U.S. economy and external deficits relative to the rest of the world, to bring forward future demand to the present through public borrowings. The large external deficits and fiscal deficits are reflective of previous stimulative efforts by the fiscal and monetary authorities to keep consumption high in past periods. We have, in essence, already borrowed heavily against future consumption.

The current accounting of the problem, of course, does not include "off balance sheet" liabilities such as pension deficits in the private sector or entitlement deficits in the public sector which when added up suggest the country as a whole is technically insolvent. The government for decades has, in effect, been using fiscal policy to boost present growth by accelerating to the present future consumption through inter-generational transfer schemes that leave parents borrowing (stealing) from their children's future income.

With the currently high debt ratios across all sectors of the U.S. economy, it is difficult to comprehend how expanding borrowings can solve the problem. Consideration of expanding fiscal policy as a solution, however, does highlight the trap we have entered. We have already spent our ammunition. The transition from a debt-fuelled growth regime to a more sustainable savings-fuelled growth regime is likely to be painful since it is difficult to see how incomes and asset values are not at least temporarily depressed in the process.

Japan's situation is very different since it remained a net external creditor on account of relatively high domestic savings. The "balance sheet" causing the problem in Japan was/is primarily that of the corporate sector. It's currency does not serve as the world's reserve currency. As such, a large expansion of fiscal policy to stimulate growth is largely a domestic affair. In essence, the expansion of fiscal policy to fill the gap created by corporate savings ultimately liquefies highly damaged banking balance sheets since in lieu of corporate lending the banks buy government bonds to fund deposits. This probably works, in time, for Japan (until retirees realize that their cost of living far outstretches the benefits provided by the government � tomorrow's story). It is not clear that this will work for the U.S. given its absolutely and relatively large net external borrowings facilitated by the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency.

Mr. Koo's assessment of the causes of the "Balance Sheet Recession" may apply to the U.S. but the conditions in the U.S. are sufficiently different than those in Japan to invalidate his assessment of the proper solution. There is no such easy way out of the U.S. balance sheet problem since it exists across all sectors of the economy and is further exacerbated by the mammoth size of "off balance sheet" liabilities we fail to acknowledge today. In fact, maybe we will end up calling any U.S. recession an "Off Balance Sheet Recession" as pension deficits and escalating entitlement deficits limit expedient solutions to what has been a problem long-time coming.

Best Regards,

JF

Russell Comment -- It's possible that the sheer amount of monetary and fiscal stimulation needed to hold off recession and deflation in the US would literally sink the dollar. The dollar continues to be one of the main "Achilles Heels" of the US. Friday the dollar closed very weak. I'll be watching the dollar very carefully in coming days.

Of course, if the dollar becomes "too weak," it's going to frighten our foreign holders of US bonds (and their holdings are massive). At some point, a falling dollar will force foreigners to "save what they can" and dump their US bonds. That would drive interest rates through the roof. God help us if it comes to that.

Of course, the Fed could buy all the bonds that are dumped on the US. But that would require the Fed to create mountains of new money in order to buy the bonds, causing massive monetary inflation. That would cause the dollar to cave in and gold to go through the roof.

You see, one way or the other you have to own gold.

Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/03/2004; 11:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122734)
The US taxpayer and population in general...

Will not bear the brunt of this equalization of accounts.The US will continue to run ever increasing deficits as both the fall-off in consumer demand,coupled with rising external debt service costs and other factors(free lunch)send said deficits through the roof.

So,we all know the debt based money system must continually expand,furthermore,we all know there's an admitted 45 Trillion dollar funding shortfall to be faced by the US government in the next 20-25 years.

This debt will all be inflated away,this will happen based on the social needs of the majority,as FOA has so pointedly written.The other alternative will not do,for a variety of reasons'some of them quite frightening.

The bagholders here are the UST buyers,inevitably this will also include the Federal Reserve,as they are forced to monetize US interest rates down to keep the game going.

Of course,that's fine,because they run their money off on a printing press.It's really quite a reasonable proposition.

"Why chop off a hand,when we can all lose our wealth one finger at a time."
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/03/2004; 11:57:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122735)
Starting from this auspicious holiday weekend, declare the independence of your savings!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/03/2004; 12:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122736)
The "money" needed to sustain

UST's in a comfortable band is chump change.The market is not really all that big,once all the large official and commercial interests are removed.The inflation will take place on a world wide basis,the recognition of the event will take a long time,IMO.

Happy motoring.

"We got to this point because our money was gold in the beginning."
Goldless Heathen
(07/03/2004; 12:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122737)
GAB- sorry I was so unclear.
Thanks for your time. I think I meant to say this;

Can the 'benefits of free gold' ever be fully realized without a larger number of indivivduals owning gold and fewer individuals owning very large amounts?

(my term 'Individuals' can also include groups, central banks and governments)

As soon as the Fedex guy gets here I will just be a Heathen :)
Have a great weekend, I'm off to fish the Konkapot.
Steve22
(07/03/2004; 16:34:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122738)
The end isn't near...or is it...
Sir Bizarro-Greenspan,
That is like saying, the system is not the system without the system. I agree that it could be a while, though. If a large holder like China decided to sell off the bulk of it's holdings in favor of Gold, that would be considered an act of war and most likely pursued as such. Tolerating massive inflation in places like China, while they debase ahead of the devaluing dollar in order to maintain support for as long as possible might be a good idea. Money is time. Let me know what you think?

Thanks
Steve22

Bizarro-Greenspan (07/03/04; 12:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 122736)
The "money" needed to sustain

UST's in a comfortable band is chump change.The market is not really all that big,once all the large official and commercial interests are removed.The inflation will take place on a world wide basis,the recognition of the event will take a long time,IMO.

Happy motoring.

"We got to this point because our money was gold in the beginning."
The Invisible Hand
(07/03/2004; 18:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122739)
No comment
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1163961,00.html(article dates from Thursday July 01, sorry if this bas been posted before)
SNIP:
If history is any guide, politicians and voters will decide that inflation is the only way to spread the burden of these ever-growing social costs. If so, then the trend of interest rates and inflation will continue to point upwards for years, or even decades, to come.
Paper Avalanche
(07/03/2004; 21:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122740)
Spiderman
Went to see Spiderman this afternoon. The villan in the movie decided to steal money to finance his evil intentions. When he ripped off the vault door at an un-named New York bank to do so there was not a pile of FRN's but rather bags of physical gold. This was not a glimpse in the movie. Instead, the movie director had the bags of gold be a centerpiece of the fight scene between spidey and the bad guy. There were numerous, focused scenes of gold in the vault.

Indirectly, subliminally establishing the value of gold in the mind of Joe Sixpack? Could be.

However, for those newbies who have never read a post from me before, please head the following:

I may be wrong. I often am.

Paper Avalanche (coming your way soon!!!)
ge
(07/04/2004; 02:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122741)
Ballad of the Banking Systems Engineer by John C. Turmel
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel/pombank.htm..
There's feedback that is positive that forces debts to grow.
The flaw is in the software while the hardware's working right,...
Our nations, towns and provinces are burdened all to tears,
By an exponential function overlooked by engineers....
Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/04/2004; 11:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122742)
Paul McCulley,PIMCO

"But the fact that we live in a fiat currency world, with no backing for our currency except the good name, good faith, and good credit of we the people tells me that money is, at the end of the day, a political decision. I mean, lo and behold, this free market concept is founded on a fiat currency."
Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/04/2004; 11:13:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122743)
Steve 22

I think China will only spend USD reserves on trade deficits,there is nothing to be gained by rocking the boat at this time.

There is talk of using the USD reserves to bail out the underwater Chinese banking industry,I guess we'll all have to wait and see on that one.
Bizarro-Greenspan
(07/04/2004; 11:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122744)
Gold

Can be part of the Chinese trade deficit.
Cavan Man
(07/04/2004; 13:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122745)
None
The Declaration of Independence of the Thirteen Colonies
In CONGRESS, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain [George III] is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

Aristotle
(07/04/2004; 15:05:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122746)
What's better than Gold?
What's *BETTER* than GOLD???

How about... an Independence Holiday like this one, glowing coals on the BBQ, with warm friends and cold beers gathered 'round.

Best of all, it needn't be a choice of Either-Or. Have them both!

Gold. The one ingredient most American families are still missing. Get you some. --- Ari
Liberty Head
(07/04/2004; 15:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122747)
Re: Declaration of Independence

Cavan Man,

Thanks for posting the Declaration of Independence. Those words, written at the zenith of Liberty in the USA, were once quite inspirational. In days gone by, people actually believed in limited government and fought to make it happen.
Today those words make me weep in sadness for what we have become. I get the same feeling when I read Emma Lazarus's "The New Colossus". The words ring hollow for me.
It seems to me most folks have transferred their reverence for the concepts of Liberty into a reverence for the symbols, statues, declarations, currency, fireworks, etc. That is, we love the symbols more than what the symbols stand for.
Perhaps, King George III was ahead of his time.

One way to declare individual liberty today, and back it up with action is to buy gold. An ounce of gold always rings like an ounce of gold. Liberty is in deed precious.

Here are some simple words that do not require anyone else's concurrence to live by.

"Give me liberty or give me death"
-Patrick Henry

Best Wishes
Boilermaker
(07/04/2004; 15:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122748)
Goldless Heathen msg#: 122728 Independent Gold?
Your post reflects some of my own concerns regarding gold. If not enough people (voters) have an interest or sense to own gold then will our congress protect our rights to own it?. If not enough people understand the reasons to own gold can we expect them to elect a congress that allows them to? If more people are convinced that government is a crutch will they ever learn to walk?
This 4th of July will most likely be a turning point for the US of A, the country I love and will fight for. The purchase of gold is a vote against the direction that I see it moving and towards the reclaiming of its glorious heritage.
Vote now, vote often, for your golden future.



Boilermaker
(07/04/2004; 16:15:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122749)
The Security Zoo
This 4th of July worries me. I feel like the US is becoming a zoo. A zoo is a place that cages its animals with total care and security. They will be fed every day and not be eaten by preditors. They will live a longer and lead more predictable lives. However, they will not be free to become "all you can be". Which life do you want?

The zoo may run out of funds and the animals therein may suffer. I would not want to be a zoo kept animal turned loose to a "free" habitat.

I like the contest of life for good or bad. God-given determination and good sense will sort out the winners. God made gold for winners. As Ari relentlessly reminds us, gold, get you some.
Boilermaker
(07/04/2004; 16:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122750)
Barron's article on Newmont Gold
This week's Barrons has an article by Rhonda Brammer about Newmont Gold, "24 Karat Play". The article is generally positive, citing Newmont's president, Pierre Lassonde's bullish forecast for gold and newsletter writer Fred Hickey's (High-tech Strategist)case for higher gold prices. By the end of the article the message was clear, a cyclical play on a stock in a cyclical business. Sort of like General Motors or USSteel. Lassonde and Hickey give the case for a weak dollar but there was no hint of the stuff we talk about- dollar and systemic fiat failure- as being the reason to be long gold.

Camel
(07/04/2004; 19:46:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122751)
(No Subject)
"I am certainly not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions. I think moderate imperfections had better be borne with; because once known , we accommodate ourselves to them, and find practical means of correcting their ill effects. But I also know that laws and institutions must go hand and hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more enlightened ,as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the cxhange of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors. "

Thomas Jefferson
Henri
(07/04/2004; 20:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122752)
Happy Birthday United States of America
In truth we are the United States of Being of all our constituents...if we could only learn this. A tretise on truth? Perhaps another day.
Great Albino Bat
(07/04/2004; 22:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122753)
What about regression and not progress?

T. Jefferson was born in a time when the prevalent and fashionable idea was that mankind had to PROGRESS to higher and higher stages of civilization. That was what "The Age of Reason" was all about.

I notice in the post by Camel, that T.J. said:

"I also know that laws and institutions must go hand and hand with the progress of the human mind.

Yes, indeed, when civilization is moving upwards to a higher level, laws and institutions will have to adapt to that higher plane. But, do humans ever really progress? Is not humnanity always the same?

What about our time? Quite evidently a time of regression, of descent to barbarism. Even worse than barbarism, for the barbarians were God-fearing people. NOw, we have atheistic barbarism - never has mankind sunk so low.

Good and brave Thomas Jefferson - I think he thought too highly of humanity. Too optimistically.

Time to gather in the family, and tell it like it is. And gather in some gold and silver, too; will certainly come in handy, not too far down the road, now.

The GAB
TownCrier
(07/05/2004; 00:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122754)
"Tougher than brewing coffee"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040704/financial_wamu_1.html(excerpts)
NEW YORK, July 4 (Reuters) - Washington Mutual may have wanted to become the Starbucks of banking, but it is getting a harsh lesson ... coping with interest-rate risks...

Last Monday, one of the largest U.S. mortgage bankers shocked investors when it warned that its 2004 earnings would be at least 11 percent below Wall Street forecasts, blaming "expectations for a sustained increase in long-term interest rates."

WaMu declined to elaborate on Friday about losses related to its hedging of interest rates...

After Monday's closing bell in the stock market, WaMu cut its forecast ........in a statement announcing the warning, WaMu Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said the effects of interest-rate changes "are likely to outpace the timing of ongoing cost-reduction plans in our mortgage banking business."

With U.S. mortgage rates rising nearly 1 percentage point from their historic lows last summer, many lenders have already pruned staff because business has dropped off.

This drop in mortgage lending follows several years when U.S. mortgage bankers were flush with new business because mortgage rates dipped to Eisenhower-era lows.

Not only did consumers rush out to buy homes, they refinanced repeatedly to cut borrowing costs and took equity out of homes at a record pace.

While collecting fees for underwriting home loans was easy, what was tough was figuring out which homeowner will refinance a home loan and when ....... "They put on a hedge and it moved against them."

------(see url for complete article)------

Between the world of hedges and contracts over there, and the world of gold over here, there is a huge chasm separating them -- big enough to entertain a lifetime of continuous exploration and study.

R.
TownCrier
(07/05/2004; 01:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122755)
Lassonde sees paradigm shift in gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040704/minerals_newmont_1.htmlNEW YORK, July 4 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp.'s president, Pierre Lassonde, said that the price of gold is at the beginning of a long-term bull run...

Lassonde, who owns nearly $100 million of stock according to Barron's July 5 edition, told the magazine that a deteriorating outlook for the U.S. dollar would underpin a "paradigm shift" that would send gold on a long-term rally.

...Lassonde also said that selling the dollar and buying gold was the best way to diversify away from currency risk.

-----(from url)----

Frosting on the cake... Boilermaker has already cited some of Lassonde's gold-positive interview in Barron's.

R.
Boilermaker
(07/05/2004; 06:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122756)
Essay Contest
After rereading the essays on The End of Cheap Oil I have the following short list to recommend.
Clink
Smeagol
Solomon Weaver
Toolie

The essays above generally reflect my own opinion that the transition to more expensive oil will stimulate many existing technological responses and will bring about new technologies. This will be another step in the evolution of mankind's energy production. However, the political response to higher oil prices is where most of my concern lies. The major oil consumers will be tempted to rearrange the oil market by force or coercion.

I agree that this is a difficult subject to judge and I saw many extremely well written entries.
Gandalf the White
(07/05/2004; 09:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122757)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- ESSAY CONTEST WINNERS
http://www.usagold.com/contests/June2004.htmlThe ESSAY Contest Questions:

"What will the end of cheap oil mean as a permanent state of affairs for the U.S. economy? For the world economy? What will it mean for gold?"

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals was pleasantly surpised ---(OVERWHELMED)--- with the large number and quality of the responses !!!!! Take a look and read for yourself, the ENTRIES at the LINK !

LATE last night the WINNERS were FINALLY determined ! As EVERYONE was very sleepy, it was decided to wait and post the list of WINNERS after a good nights rest.
-----

THE WINNERS ARE:

The "First Prize" of a highly collectible United States $10 Gold "Liberty" coin in Uncirculated grade, (0.48375 oz. net fine gold), goes to Sir Boilermaker !!!!

The "Second Prize" of an Uruguay "Five Peso" gold coin in Uncirculated condition (0.2501 oz. net fine gold ), goes to Sir Tevye !!!

The "Third Prize" of an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle in NEW condition, goes to Sir TheJuniorMiner.

IN ADDITION, "for Honorable Mention", ANOTHER one oz. Silver Eagle "PRECIOUS", goes to Sir Smeagol.

THANKS ALL for the GREAT responses and NOW, the Judges will take the rest of the day to recover !
<;-)
Ned
(07/05/2004; 11:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122758)
Silver editorial
http://www.silver-investor.com/cs_july04.htmVery long, very interesting.

Are vaults of CB's (especially China) now void of silver?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/05/2004; 11:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122759)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


OVERSEAS Markets
--Gold dealers in London fixed a recommended price of $398.40 bid per troy ounce at midmorning, up from $398.10 late Friday.

--In Zurich, the bid price was $398.15, up from $397.95.

--Gold rose $4.10 in Hong Kong to close at $399.05 an ounce.


Monday market rap -- Gold rises on strong euro, U.S. holiday thins trade

Gold rose in Europe on Monday, helped by euro strength against the dollar, but trade was thin and stuck below resistance at $400 as U.S. financial markets closed for the Independence Day holiday...

Dealers said that while the market was caught in ranges on Monday, higher prices were on the cards soon with support from currencies. The dollar held near a one-month low against the euro on Monday after taking a beating from weaker than expected U.S. jobs data last week. ... A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for European investors...

"Few fireworks are expected today but gold is likely to continue to test higher in the short term given the current momentum, but needs to break first $400 and then $405 to re-establish a clear upward trend." Kamal Naqvi of Barclays Capital said in a daily report...

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)---
Boilermaker
(07/05/2004; 15:57:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122760)
Essay Contest
Please accept my humble thanks for being selected a winner in "The End of Cheap Oil" essay contest.
Perhaps my experience and perspective as a small O&G producer was helpful along with my 35 years of experience in power generation from various forms of fossil and renewable fuels. As some may recall from past posts I have been a long time proponent of higher oil and gas prices as a means to prepare for the inevitable point when they are no longer cheap. Gradually-introduced higher prices will bring peaceful long-term solutions. Rapid price increases will cause economic disruption and "political" solutions including war.

Let me also offer my sincere thanks to our most gracious host and benefactor, Sir Michael Kosares and his trusty colleagues Sirs Randy, Gandalf, George, Mike Jr and Lady Marie (forgive me if I've left anyone out). This $10 "Liberty" will be a fine complement to the $20 Liberties and St. Gaudens that I had the good fortune to purchase from CPM about three years ago.

I also want to congratulate the other winners, Sirs Tevye, TheJuniorMiner and Smeagol for their excellent entries. It was clear from reading all the entries that the range of opinion on the effect of The End of Cheap Oil is in no way uniform among goldbugs. Let us just be assured that the end of cheap oil has come and will signal the end of cheap gold.

Boilermaker
Gandalf the White
(07/05/2004; 16:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122761)
THANKS Sir Boilermaker, for reminding me of Lady Marie !!!
YES YES YES ! She (Lady Marie) is the one that sends out the Prizes to the WINNERS !

PLEASE, will each WINNER provide their REAL Name, with their Forum Handle, together with a SNAILMAIL address for posting the PRECIOUS ! Send this data to Lady Marie via email at:

marie@usagold.com

THANKS and CONGRATULATIONS !!
<;-)

----
THE WINNERS ARE:

The "First Prize" of a highly collectible United States $10 Gold "Liberty" coin in Uncirculated grade, (0.48375 oz. net fine gold), goes to Sir Boilermaker !!!!

The "Second Prize" of an Uruguay "Five Peso" gold coin in Uncirculated condition (0.2501 oz. net fine gold ), goes to Sir Tevye !!!

The "Third Prize" of an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle in NEW condition, goes to Sir TheJuniorMiner.

IN ADDITION, "for Honorable Mention", ANOTHER one oz. Silver Eagle "PRECIOUS", goes to Sir Smeagol.
Boilermaker
(07/05/2004; 16:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122762)
Speaking of Oil............
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/06/001.htmlsnip;
"The actions of representatives of the Russian government have led Russia's best and most creditworthy company to the brink of an unintended and artificial situation of insolvency and bankruptcy, creating an unthinkable default situation with its bank lenders, all at a time when the company is experiencing the best results in its history," Yukos chief financial officer Bruce Misamore said in a statement Monday..............
Experts say the government could relax its tax case against the company, which is threatening it with bankruptcy, if Group Menatep shareholders, the core group that owns a majority of Yukos shares, agree to give up their stakes. The legal onslaught has been seen as an attempt to force Yukos founder and its largest shareholder Mikhail Khodorkovsky out of business because he was beginning to encroach on President Vladimir Putin's power base. Khodorkovsky has been held in jail for the last eight months on separate fraud and tax evasion charges.

WHAT YUKOS OWNS (This came from an article at http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/06/039.html

Cash - Yukos said on May 27 it had $800 million in liquid assets. Second quarter results will boost that to $1.1 billion to 1.2 billion. By the end of the year it should have enough to pay 60 percent to 70 percent of a $3.4 billion back tax bill for 2000.
Output - Yukos produces 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and exports a total of 1.1 million bpd of crude and refined products to destinations outside the former Soviet Union. It is one of Russia's two biggest oil companies.
Reserves - Main production subsidiaries based in Western Siberia. Yukos had 16 billion barrels of proved oil equivalent reserves on Dec. 31, 2003, under U.S. Society of Petroleum Engineers rules.
Refineries - Five major refineries, including Angarsk (which in 2003 ran some 230,000 bpd of crude), Syzran (285,000 bpd) and Kuybyshev (130,000 bpd). The firm controls the Mazeikiu Nafta oil refinery and Butinge terminal in Lithuania.
Sales - 1,200 branded petrol stations in Russia.

comment;
This is one of the world's largest oil producers at about 1.7 million bbls/day. I really don't know what's going on in Russia but it sure smells like a governmental takeback of their most valuable commodity. My take is that Russia wants to re-nationalize their oil industry and begin to regulate their oil production a la OPEC. In any case it will stimulate oil prices just like the threat of any other supply disruption.
I'd like to hear from others on this, particularly Black Blade, on this unfolding intrigue.
Gandalf the White
(07/05/2004; 18:40:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122763)
I hope that EVERYONE saw this Chart of the US$ on Friday !!!
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y∬erval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10Do you think that the Exchange Stabilization Fund was busy somewhere else shortly after 8 am. ?
WOWSERS !!
What does this tell you ?
GET the YELLOW !
<;-)
TheJuniorMiner
(07/05/2004; 18:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122764)
Essay Contest

Thank you Centennial Precious Metals for an opportunity to put a few words together and attempt to win such wonderful prizes.

Boilermaker, what can I say but "what a great essay". Tevye, congratulations. Me thinks you are a realist and your essay has me pondering from which country you reside. Smeagol, I am always amazed how you write as if you just stepped out of the Hobbit/Lord of the Rings.

It was good to see so many entrants and so much activity on this board during the last few weeks. There are many great minds here and much value can be had reading their posts.

Thank you again USA Gold for such an opportunity.

Glenn

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/05/2004; 19:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122765)
A solid gold investment education in 175 pages for only $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Clink!
(07/05/2004; 19:49:23 MDT - Msg ID: 122766)
Congratulations to all the winners !
http://www.richard-seaman.com/Aircraft/AirShows/SpaceShipOne2004/And my condolences to the judges - I bet that was WAY more work than you thought you had signed on for. By the quality of the responses, I think that the posters here have, in fact, raised the bar for the questions in the next competition ! Nothing too trite or banal for us next time, please ! (But maybe the word limit would be a good idea LOL !)

One thing that I was dying to add about that rather nifty Renault (it was off-topic for the essay, and it's still OT for the forum, but ....) is that it demonstrated a fundamental improvement in how cars are driven which was enabled by 'cheap' information technology, namely a computer-controlled parking brake. It worked as follows :- The brake is applied when the engine is off or when it is activated by a little pull-handle under the dash. It is released automatically when you apply power and release the clutch such that you are going forward (or backwards if you happen to be in reverse). You feel just a slight hesitation before the release. What this means is that the dreaded hill start is basically as simple as one on the level - if you haven't applied enough oomph to go forward up the hill, you will stay with the brake safely applied. Almost as simple as an automatic. Neat !
Necessity is the Mother of invention. I think we will see a lot of amazing new inventions ( eg the Segway ) coming in the next few years. They may be of only marginal economic viability today (ie rich boy's toys), but could become the precursor of the future. For example, how much did Edison's phonograph or Dunlop's pneumatic tyre cost when they were first commercialised ?

C!

PS. Or for something more topical, feast your eyes on this wonderful sequence of photos at the URL above. This was all done for around $20M - I can imagine that if this were done by NASA (or the DoD or whoever) the cost of the design team's catering bill would have been more !
Remarx
(07/05/2004; 20:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122767)
Congratulations!
Congratulations to the winners of the contest. Thanks to MK and CPM for hosting and judging it -- not to mention putting up the prizes!
-r
MK
(07/05/2004; 20:27:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122768)
Congrats to the winners!
.........And thanks to the judges.

I would like to propose in the presence of all the members of this Table Round that the totality of entries be enshrined in the Hall of Fame so that posterity might see how we stated ourselves on the issue of oil, money and gold in this unsettled summer of 2004. I think history will show that we had an understanding that transcends that which passes for enlightened analysis elsewhere and in the popular press.

Special thanks to Boilermaker -- the winner in a stellar field. And thanks as well to all the contributors. I was surprised at both the number and quality of essays submitted.

Onward, my fellow knights and ladies. And thanks for making this a special place on the internet.

Great Albino Bat
(07/05/2004; 21:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122769)
About Yukos: oil is a strategic asset...

Strategic as in "warfare."

Unfortunately, it must be pointed out that Mr. Khodorkhovsky, who controlled Yukos, is Jewish. Hence much sympathetic moaning in London about Russia going back on its program of privatization and sliding back into government ownership of enterprises. Well, Yukos is not making hamburgers nor selling running shoes! The FT is down on Putin for behaving so nastily and for saying as much as "You are not going to mess with Russia's oil!"

Also, it appears Mr. Kh. was going to sell an important interest in Yukos to Exxon, as I recall.

That's all Putin needs, Exxon owning and operating an oil company in Russia.

By the way, has anyone got wind of the "settlement fails" in the US banking system? Most interesting...

The GAB
Great Albino Bat
(07/05/2004; 21:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122770)
A London link to the Yukos affair: default on $1 Billion by Yukos
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3865943.stm.
An article on Yukos is available at the link.

George Ure speculates that the default might cause a chain of further defaults elsewhere - mentions the Herstadt Bank as an example.

The Financial World will all fall apart in due course. Sit back, relax, and enjoy your T.V. and newspapers with their gory details, while you are safe in the knowledge YOUR wealth cannot evaporate overnight.

The GAB
Goldendome
(07/05/2004; 22:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122771)
List of the Major banks with exposure to Yukos

From: Gateway to Russia, website:

Yukos has confirmed today that it received a notification from a group of banks declaring it in default on a $1 billion loan, says Reuters.
The credit was given by syndicate of banks - Societe Generale, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Credit Lyonnais, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and ING.
Prior to that the court obliged YUKOS to repay the Tax and Duties Ministry`s bill of 99 billion rubles. After that the T&DM billed another 98 billion. Last week representatives of the Prosecutor's office and bailiffs raided the central office of the company.
-------------------------
Perhaps? HSBC is Herstadt Bank that GAB just mentioned in a previous post.
Goldendome
(07/05/2004; 22:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122772)
Richard Russell - July 5th
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/russell070304.htmlA few excerpts from the latest Richard Russel Dow Report:

The two paragraphs below are from the always excellent King Report (July 1 report) --

"A stunningly disturbing Chicago PMI trumped the Fed rate hike. The action in the markets yesterday suggested a change in economic perceptions. It could be the beginning of the end. The ugly ChicagoPMI details: 56.4 expected; employment fell to 53.6 from 54.8; production collapsed to 53.9 from 71.1; new orders collapsed to 56.8 from 74.4; prices paid jumped to 84.5 from 80.

"You can forget all the post mortems on the Fed decision and communiqu�; the real talk in the money world yesterday was the astonishing collapse in the Chicago PMI."


-----------------------------------------------------------

I keep harping on the thesis that following a burst bubble (learning from the Japanese experience) it will require massive inflation to keep the US economy from sinking into recession and deflation.

Along these lines, M-3, the broad money supply, was down $10.4 billion for the latest week ended June 21.

This morning the Sept. 30 year T-bond was up 1 and 18/32nds to 108.13. This was a new high on the rally that started on May 13, at which time the bond was selling at 101.24. So is the bond market thinking inflation or deflation? You make the call.
---------------------------
Gdome: The economy, stock market and-- the dollar-- in particular appear to be in real perile.
If the fed continues to liquify on a massive basis the dollar is doomed by inflation, and on the other hand, if they cut back on the mass liquidity, they run the risk once again of the economy rolling over and heading into a deflationary period (for credit backed assets).
------------------------------------
More from Richard Russel:

There's an irony in the current situation. The weaker the US economy, the more the need for the Fed to increase liquidity and the greater the need for the government to spend and run deficits -- both processes calculated to ward off the forces of deflation.

But the more the Fed inflates, and the larger the government deficits, the weaker the dollar. If the Fed and government are successful in warding off deflation, the dollar's fate is still in question. If deflation takes over, the international value of the dollar could cave in -- since deflation would crush the US economy and turn foreigners bearish on the dollar.

Either way, the dollar would be in danger. Which is one of the important reasons to hold gold.

968
(07/06/2004; 02:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122773)
Juncker favourite to be Europe's 'Mr Euro'
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373470082&p=1012571727166Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxem- bourg's prime minister, has emerged as the strong favourite to be the first "Mr Euro" - the political face of Europe's single currency.


The creation of the post will be discussed on Monday at the monthly eurogroup meeting of 12 single currency finance ministers, but a clear majority is in favour.

Although the Dutch presidency of the European Union maintains there are no plans to nominate a specific individual on Monday, Mr Juncker has strong backing among member states.

The Luxembourg prime minister, who is also his country's finance minister, is a skilful operator trusted by colleagues and particularly valued by France and Germany. He decided not to put his name forward to be president of the European Commission - the EU's top civil servant - in spite of strong pressure from Paris and Berlin. However, he could combine the new job with his Luxembourg role.

The post of president of the eurogroup - the informal forum for eurozone finance ministers - would give the euro a political figurehead and provide a counterweight to the European Central Bank.

One French diplomat said: "We believe Mr Juncker would be an excellent president of the eurogroup."

Supporters of the "Mr Euro" post believe the eurogroup president could represent the single currency in international forums and be a political interface with Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB.

The new position, with a two-and-a-half year term, is proposed in the new EU constitution but many finance ministers want to fill it even before the treaty is ratified.

Gerrit Zalm, the Dutch finance minister, today takes the rotating chairmanship of the eurogroup for six months under the Dutch EU presidency but his colleagues want a more permanent chairmanship, probably starting next year.

Last week Mr Zalm said such a move would not be an affront to voters asked to ratify the treaty in referendums because the eurogroup was essentially an informal body. "We are free and we can be sensible and anticipate what will be coming around after the constitution is in place," he said.

Mr Juncker, who takes over from Mr Zalm in January when Luxembourg assumes the EU presidency, would in any case chair the eurogroup until the end of next year. Britain takes the EU helm in the second half of next year but is not in the eurozone.

The Luxembourg prime minister has acted as an intermediary to try to defuse the crisis over the EU's stability and growth pact, which collapsed last year because of repeated French and German breaches of its budget deficit ceiling.
-----------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------
European politics want a "counterweight" to ease (???)ECB/Trichet. The EU leaders have talked for long about this new function, but they got this topic out of the refrigerator after Mr. Bush' visit to Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi (= US-friend).
goldenpeace
(07/06/2004; 04:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122774)
From Doug Noland on monetary and credit growth rates...
5/21 YTD growth rates:
M3 +11.0% Annual Rate
Savings Deposits +22% AR
Bank Credit +12% AR
Real Estate Loans +20.1% AR
Commercial Paper +15.9% AR
Foreign Custody holdings of Treasuries +32.4% AR


last week:
M3 +10.1% AR
Savings +16% AR
Bank Credit +10.2% AR
RE Loans +15.9% AR
CP +8.3% AR
Foeign Custody +30% AR

Big slow down in a month, hence pressure on economy, especially at lower end, stocks except some hard assets, and on $.
Feds got to keep pumpin harder..come on Easy Al!
misetich
(07/06/2004; 04:46:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122775)
Pipeline Sabotage In Iraq Helps Send Oil Prices Skyward
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29560-2004Jul5.htmlSnip:

BAGHDAD, July 5 -- Oil prices rose Monday after attacks on Iraqi oil lines forced the country to reduce its exports by half. News of Russian giant Yukos Oil Co.'s expanding legal and financial troubles added to traders' anxiety.
..............................
The shutdown cut exports of crude oil from Basra to about 960,000 barrels a day, roughly half the postwar levels there.
.....................
Also Monday, Russia's Yukos came a step closer to bankruptcy after a group of Western banks signaled they might call in a $1 billion loan to the company. Societe Generale of France, the lead arranger for the lenders' syndicate, said the banks don't want to "jeopardize" the company, but the notice issued Monday means the banks can call in their debt at any time.
********************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues relentessly, as consumption demand soars and supplies tighten

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/06/2004; 04:57:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122776)
Foreigners Own More of Nation's Debt
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29869-2004Jul5.htmlSnip:

The statistics show that foreign and international investors account for the entire increase in privately owned Treasury securities since George W. Bush took office.
.......................
Privately owned Treasury securities are those that belong to investors, as opposed to those owned by federal government trust funds or the Federal Reserve Board. Private investors own about half our $7 trillion-plus of national debt; the Fed and federal trust funds own the rest.
...........................
if you want see for yourself, on the Web at www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/ b24ofs.doc
........................
Besides, by ending at March 31 -- the June 30 numbers weren't out last week -- I'm cutting the president some slack. If recent patterns held during the second quarter, the numbers are even worse now. Foreign investors may well own a majority of privately held national debt. They held 49 percent on March 31, up from 36 percent when Bush took office.
........................
And one day, the bill will come in. It always does.
****************
Misetich

The "vendor financing" carried out by central bankers is unsustainable.

It is a question of when, not if to Sir Greenspan end of the free lunch era.

The US $ is overvalued and the ANOTHER down leg will start shortly.....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/06/2004; 05:26:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122777)
Japan risks move from deflation to debt-trap Recovery versus rising rates
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373476028&p=1012571727313Snip:

This could expose Japan to a different financial risk just as things appear to be going well at last.... started with last Wednesday's US rate rise, it is the most leveraged economies that are most at risk.
...............
Take the public finances first. Gross government debt, according to Ministry of Finance projections, will reach 161 per cent of gross domestic product this year, compared with about 66 per cent in the US and Germany. The tax take, at a miserable 10 per cent of GDP, will not close a growing budget deficit and only massive increases in money supply and bond issuance, combined with low yields, have allowed Japan to finance its spending habit.
..............
The situation is not much brighter in the private sector. Bad loans are declining but financial groups hold about Y106,000bn of government bonds. A 100 basis point rise in yields will generate about Y3,700bn of losses on those bonds and the Nikkei stock index would have to rise to 14,000 (from less than 12,000) for profits on the banks' equity portfolios to compensate. With a more bearish 2 per cent rise in bond yields the losses would jump to Y7,400bn, requiring a Nikkei of 16,000.

Japanese companies, finally, still have an average debt/equity ratio of 100 per cent, twice that of their US or European peers, and many have only been kept alive by having to pay practically no interest on their debt.
*****************
Misetich

Japan printing machines went to overdrive -The massive amounts of debt accumulated by Japan Inc. found its way in US $ "investments" Japan is the largest holder of US $ reserves

As Lois Lane asked Superman - paraphrasing -" I know you're holding me - but whose holding you?"

Sometimes film's "superpowers myths" are entranged in people's minds -

Gold investors minds are clear and focused. THEY KNOW and have fortold upcoming events - and thus far in history of mankind Gold investors have always been rewarded kindly.

More savvy investors will join the gold bull express - soon-

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/06/2004; 06:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122778)
India's Gold Demand, Imports To Rise In 2004
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040705/15/3lhrc.htmlSnip:

New Delhi, July 5 (Dow Jones) - Strong growth in India's farm incomes after a second straight year of good monsoon rains will boost demand for gold in 2004, leading to higher imports this year, a senior industry official has said.

"Rural demand in the first six months has been very strong and is expected to remain high over the year. Besides, a number of people who invested in the stock markets ploughed back their capital gains into gold in the first quarter of 2004, which further boosted demand for gold," said Sanjeev Aggarwal, managing director of World Gold Council, India.
........
The country's agriculture sector saw a bumper harvest last year and is expecting a similar crop this year.

India's farm output rose 10% on year in the financial year ended March 31, 2004. Gold demand rose 16% on year in 2003 to 588 metric tons, while the value of total gold imports was 320 billion rupees ($1=INR45.90).

Aggarwal said gold demand could reach 600 tons in 2004 if prices aren't too volatile during the rest of the year and if the economy continues to grow at a fast rate.
***************
Misetich

India's unsatiable demand for gold continues

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Toolie
(07/06/2004; 06:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122779)
Good as Gold
http://www.cato.org/dailys/07-06-04.htmlBrought to you by what I consider to be think tank behind most of the free trade spin that then becomes talking points for legislators that advocates expanded free trade.

The CATO institute has been relatively silent on a return to the gold standard. Do we begin to see a foundation created that will bring the current account deficit to heel? With a devalued dollar and productive industry vacating the domestic economy will the tax and spend Demoplublicans have any choice but to raid Fort Knox? Wealth must be created before it can be stolen.


SNIP: Financial markets have been fretting for some time about inflation. In a nation at war, the federal budget is bloated by a "guns and butter" policy of a president with an ambitious domestic agenda coupled with a forward defense posture. Monetary policy has been expansionary. Oil prices are setting records, at least in nominal terms, and there is a serious threat of further supply disruptions.
In short, many of the problems confronting Ronald Reagan when he took office as the nation's 40th president in 1981 are now present or anticipated. The Reagan administration is the last time a gold standard was seriously considered. In 1981, Congress agreed to an increase in the U.S. quota to the International Monetary Fund on the condition that a gold commission be appointed Senator Jesse Helms crafted that compromise.
Professor Anna J. Schwartz, who served as staff director of the U.S. Gold Commission, provided a concise history of the deliberations of that commission. The commission was highly politicized; the Fed was adamantly opposed to a return to gold; and the Reagan administration never backed a gold option. The commission issued an inconclusive report to Congress on March 31, 1982.
Gold proponents have long been critical of Professor Schwartz for having been hostile to gold, a charge she vigorously denied at the conference. Indeed, she buoyed the spirits of gold adherents by saying that it was time once again to seriously look at the operation of the gold standard. (end snip)
canamami
(07/06/2004; 08:33:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122780)
POG down $5.70
This is ridiculous. How much more ammo do the anti-gold forces have at their disposal?

Obviously, a CB somewhere is dumping gold again.

It's hard to beleive in gold unless there is some irrefutable evidence that the CB's have been neutered.

Henri
(07/06/2004; 08:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122781)
Looks like spot and spike are hungry
ouch! Well FOA said that the collapse of the paper markets would occur before freegold. It is still not clear weather this will be an upward price failure or a downward one. Judging from the banker ques on the downside, I guess the direction has already been determined...just a matter of when.
Knallgold
(07/06/2004; 08:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122782)
Spot action
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB6ZVXZBWD.htmlThe situation in Russia (Yukos,debt call by western bank,Russia's Guta Bank Suspends Operations etc...) and Gold gets hit-surely not a coincidence IMHO.Good for Gold=bad for Goldprice...
misetich
(07/06/2004; 09:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122783)
Challenger Job-Cut Report
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/challenger_report/year/2004/yearly/07/index.htmlSnip:

The Challenger report revealed that 64,343 job-cuts were announced in June, a 12.3 percent drop from May. However, job cut announcements were up 7.8 percent from year ago levels.
..............
In June, the largest job cut announcements were in the financial and telecommunications industries. Last month, the largest layoff announcements were in retail and telecommunications.
**************
Misetich

Job cuts continue in this "jobless recovery" - The fact job-cuts announcements in the midst of higher corporate earnings reports (Pro-forma not-withstanding) is alarming since corporate earnings WILL SLOWDOWN in coming months as Real Price Inflation hits bottom lines thus the prospects of further job-cuts ahead is growing

Further corporate earnings will be negatively impacted by unfavorable foreing currency convestion as the US $ "strengthened" in recent quarter

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/06/2004; 09:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122784)
China's gold consumption for jewelry ranks world's third
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/06/content_1576450.htmSnip:

BEIJING, July 6 (Xinhuanet) -- China's gold consumption for jewelry reached 201.1 tons in 2003, ranking the world's third after India and the United States, according to the Chinese edition of the gold yearbook.

The yearbook shows that China's gold consumption for jewelry has stayed in the world's top three list. China's gold output in 2003 reached 213 tons, ranking the fourth in the world after South Africa, the United States and Australia.
..........
Wang said that China's newly-opened gold market still had a huge potential to accommodate more gold products. The developing market should pay more attention to attracting the youth by showing more 18K gold fashion products, and attracting the elderly by stressing the gold value for investment.
*************
Misetich

China's gold demand is poised to boom up as the Red Dragon economy continues to grow
The "recent slowdown" in China's red hot economy provides a healthy respite for a continuing sustainable growth - keeping commodities price inflation RED HOT for years to come...

Those industrialized countries that have relied on cheap price natural resources will experience all sorts of difficulties - from containement of inflation expectations to higher unwanted IR's and slower consumer spending and to.....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/06/2004; 09:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122785)
Wave of Companies Issue Earnings Warnings
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=0G4PGED5EWHL2CRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=5597747Snip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of companies that issued negative outlooks outnumbered those that upgraded their earnings forecasts by more than two to one last week, according to Reuters Estimates.

Cyclical consumer goods and technology companies made up 42 percent of the downgrades, citing inventory build-up, pricing pressure and weak sales as the reasons for the earnings shortfalls.
................
Wall Street has forecast earnings growth of 25 percent for the broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index for the second quarter, but the slew of profit warnings could be sobering for the markets.
****************
Misetich

For whatever reason "realistic news" is considered "negative news, doom and gloom" as it goes contrary to the spinmasters rosy scenarios

Anectodal reports, show a deteriorating economic landscape in the US -

Much of the "boost" received from emergency IR's and tax cuts and lower US $ has disappeared without any SIGNIFICANT JOB CREATION

Wages are not even keeping up with the massaged CPI/PCE inflation gauges-

The last economic lever still of some use is a further devaluation of the US $

The IMF warned earlier that a futher US $ correction is needed (3rd qtr) and its just around the corner....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
968
(07/06/2004; 10:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122786)
@ Toolie
Hi Toolie, I don't know about the quality of professor Lawrence H. Whites' mathematics but "at a price of 400 US$ per ounce of gold, there would be more than enough gold reserves for a return to the gold standard" sounds rather ridicule to me.
What an amount of gold/price for gold should be necessary for the return to a gold standard considering Sir Alan's present dollar policy ?
Toolie
(07/06/2004; 12:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122787)
968
Hi 968. That is a very good question! If all dollars were to be honored � The amount of dollars issued divided by gold supposedly in the treasury, I've read figures like $50-60 K/oz. . In which case a $100 of gold may be a wafer thin sliver encased in plastic with bar code and magnetic stripe -- Not a coin. But who knows.

The thing that I find intriguing about the scenario with free trade being pitched as good for the economy is that it plays to the greed of business through the promise of expanded markets. Businesses lobbied congress to get behind the deal. Congress largely understands only what is being explained to them by a lobbyist with a fat wallet. And it puts the FED in the position of having to print enough $'s to keep the domestic peasants making their payments while loading up the world with dollars. The dollar is printed into oblivion.

If indeed it is a stealth agenda to return America to its roots, It is brilliant! It turns the usual process of expanding government on its head in that; government usually creates a problem then fixes it by creating a bigger problem. By accepting the notion of free trade, they have given the dollar a death sentence. No more "great nipple in the sky government". If you read through Cato positions, you will find their goals in line with the idea that America should return to its roots. Similar, if not identical to that of the Libertarian Party. If I am not mistaken, Libertarians that saw the electoral challenges as too great started Cato.
Steve22
(07/06/2004; 12:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122788)
contest
Congragulations to all of the gold contest winners, it is respectable that we are all thinking about it here. I see now that the wisdom of practicality states that the essays which include the most supporting evidence will not necessarily be higher in the judge's eyes than the more succinct, easier to read essays.

Gold. Practical. Get it while it's cheap.

-Now seeking constructive criticism on my essay, which would be much appreciated!-
Ag Mountain
(07/06/2004; 12:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122789)
canamami why do you refer to it like ammo, as if it can be all used up?
Don't you know the workings of the market by now?

At the point of market-making for everyone on the "bull team" who buys the long side of a gold contract there is someone else on the "bear team" who buys a short side. So how can anything run out? There's no such thing as a limitation to the contracts that can be written, and the only "ammo" as you call it that can be exhausted is the mental resolve of either side of the opposing teams of players. If weak attitudes and poor understandings like yours are typical of the bull (long) team, the conclusion is foregone. Haven't you figured out the gold derivatives system was built to run that way? Why is it when you talk to people about lawnmowers, nobody's surprised that grass gets shorter, but when it comes to gold contracts there's always a group of disappointed bulls so surprised when the system does what it was made to do.

If you're tired of feeling foolish and disappointed try owning gold instead of buying contracts. Contracts can only work to serve either party when they work, but in the long run they're asymmetric because they have a way of defaulting which is what strengthens the hand of the shorts and puts the whole game in favor of the anti-gold house which is running the game from the start. Like I said, that's what it was made for. It's like borrowing the theory behind casinos in Las Vegas. The house offers slots and R-wheels because they're designed to benefit the house.

Why else do you think the contract system operates under an elaborate set of rules of margins and expirations and notices between counterparties conducted through the house while on the other hand true gold ownership can get by with only one easy rule of full payment between the buyer and the seller?
Great Albino Bat
(07/06/2004; 13:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122790)
Savage Credit Crunch coming! See link...
www.dailyreckoning.com
Dr. Kurt Richebacher is announcing a savage credit crunch right around the corner.

The carry trade in bonds, which is in the trillions, will now have to unwind due to rising long term rates. The market as LTCM showed, is not symmetrical: on the way up in prices of bonds, there are plenty of ready buyers and sellers. Not so when the tide turns: buyers will stand by and that means interest rates on bonds will rise much more than anyone suspects, as the carry trade tries to unwind.
This means enormous losses - even bankruptcy - for bondholders who will try to bail out of highly leveraged positions. Capital wipe-outs galore.

Further, the activity of refinancing mortgages has plunged.

No more possibility for the consumer, of tapping out equity from his home, to fund further purchases. Collapse of consumer buying is going to hit the economy, as this activity represents 70% of GDP.

Hang on, fellow goldmeisters! It won't be long now before TSHTF. Continue accumulating gold at giveaway prices, as the attempt to stifle gold offers buying opportunities.

The GAB
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/06/2004; 14:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122791)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

----Closing market rap -- excerpts:

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped over $5 per ounce Tuesday on fund and dealer selling ..... the most-active Aug contract settled $5.70 lower at $393 per ounce.

Prices ended last week on a firm footing, just shy of the $400 mark, as players nudged up gold exposure ahead of the Independence Day holiday weekend in fear of terrorist attacks in the U.S. during that period. ... Traders preferred to have a little gold over the weekend as insurance in case extremists launch more attacks in Iraq and elsewhere.

With the weekend having passed without incident, gold immediately encountered some fund selling Tuesday morning as players unraveled that increased exposure.

The U.S. dollar then managed to edge higher on short covering in the wake of a mixed Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing business index reading. Pre-placed stop-loss sell orders [in gold futures] then added to the fray by increasing sell-side volumes.

Meantime, tough resistance was seen at the convergence of key moving averages just below $400 an ounce on the COMEX. Traders said they saw as technically bearish a crossing of the 100-day below the 200-day moving average, which transpired during the day's shakeout. Many speculative funds use computerized trading programs that sell or buy on such signals..

As buyers remained content to linger on the sidelines gold prices swiftly sank between 1000 ET and 1100 ET. However, some bargain hunter interest eventually emerged in the $390 region to steady prices in a $390.50-$393.50 range by the end of play....

"The market should continue the theme of dollar watching with traders keeping half an eye on the broader geo-political situation, but with the summer holiday season approaching and market liquidity set to thin, volatility is likely to be the only thing guaranteed," wrote analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk...

Traders said rebounding crude oil prices could keep gold in demand as an inflation hedge. NYMEX crude was up 3.2 percent at $39.63 a barrel Tuesday afternoon, its highest price in a month. A floor broker said he thought it was just a matter of time before oil went to $45 a barrel and gold followed it back up to $420 an ounce, where it last traded in mid April when the August contract was falling from a 15-year high at $433....

---(see url for full news, 24-hr headlines)---
TownCrier
(07/06/2004; 14:29:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122792)
More talk on control... (Remember FOA's advice on 'controlling your controllers')
http://businessplus.hemscott.net/hstoday/AFXNewStory.dll/text?SerialNumber=2274&Indate=06/07/2004&EPIC=HEADLINE: Bundesbank's Weber says ECB, Fed mulling ways to control hedge funds

FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are trying to agree on a framework for controlling speculative hedge funds, the head of the German Bundesbank, Axel Weber, said here.

"We are currently in talks in Basel (Switzerland) with the Americans about ways to control hedge funds," said Weber...

"The Americans' position is clear: no regulation. Our conception is different..."

Hedge funds ... often concentrate on speculative, short-term financial instruments with the aim of reaping large profits.

An estimated 6,000 such funds exist worldwide that manage around $600 billion in assets. ....some have been suspected of participating in large-scale stock fraud.

----(from url)----

As FOA might say, you have the choice of throwing yourself into the swiftly churning rapids of the river where the force of "hedge fund gravity" does battle with the resistance of "central banking boulders"; or else you can skip the beating and jump straight ahead to the final destination -- the self-minded waters of the deep blue sea. That is, you'll find your security in the substance, not the process.

R.
Ned
(07/06/2004; 17:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122793)
Trying to balance the 'housing bubble' debate
http://www.moneysense.ca/news/shownews.jsp?content=20040518_050528_3_cnw_cnwI was reading an article the other day about the "housing affordability index" and to my astonishment housing is more 'affordable' now than in years gone by. This article relates to Canada which apparently is accused of a larger bubble than in the US.

What becomes clear about the 'housing bubble' debate is the ongoing fierce debate in mortgage rates. Obviously, as rates increase the 'affordability' index will climb but the point of debate, in terms of the bubble, boils down to the future of I.R.

-snip-

"With the federal bank expected to ease interest rates in the short-term - driven in part by a soaring loonie, which has gained about 20 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past year - housing activity is expected to remain strong.

Carl Gomez, an economist with RBC Financial Group in Toronto, says that compared to the housing bubble of the 1980s, the current market has stronger fundamentals to support the rising prices.

Gomez, whose firm publishes a regular housing affordability index, says the percentage of household income needed to carry a typical bungalow on a five-year mortgage has shrunk from 48 percent in 1989 to about 32 percent today. For a one-year mortgage, it is as low as 28 percent."


-end-

I offer this tidbit to counter endless 'housing bubble' conjecture. I also offer that I am 'undecided' on this issue because I haven't the foggiest if I.R. are going up a bit or a lot.

Ned
(07/06/2004; 17:53:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122794)
Whooops!
http://origin.bankrate.com/brm/news/real-estate/20040122can.aspThat snip below is from this link:

(from the same 'google' search, "housing affordability index" "RBC")
Ned
(07/06/2004; 18:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122795)
More 'affordability index' stats
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdfExcellent charts & stats on this 'pdf'.

During the crazy (real) housing bubble in Toronto in the late '80's housing costs were near 70% of household income (40 and 50% for all 'metro' areas) and dropped to and below 40% through the early '90's and presently average approximately 35%.

Housing affordability is at or near a 20 year low, again low interest rates are the reason. The call of a housing bubble is a call on future I.R.'s.

Gandalf the White
(07/06/2004; 19:27:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122796)
Attention Sir Mackattack !!! Calling Sir Mackattack !!! HEELLLLOOOOOO --
AND --- NO !!!!!, Sir Smeagol, just because Sir Mackattack has not yet picked-up his PRECIOUS winning Prize of an one ounce USA Silver Eagle, it can not be given to you !!!!
<;-)

Sir Mackattack --- Please read the following "REPOST" !!
----

This is a "REPOST" of the POG CONTEST announcement !!

Gandalf the White (06/25/04; 12:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 122530)

TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA POG CONTEST WINNERS !!

The August '04 GOLD COMEX Contract prices for Friday June 25, '04 were:

HIGH = $403.8 low = $401.6 and SETTLEMENT = $403.2
CHANGE = minus $0.3

and FROM the OFFICAL Listing of POG Contest entries:
---
$$$$ $404.3 $$$$ mackattack (6/19/04; 16:16:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 122258)
$$$$ $403.5 $$$$ Waverider (6/20/04; 18:32:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 122287)
$$$$ $403.0 $$$$ phil288 (6/22/04; 18:16:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 122386)
$$$$ $402.1 $$$$ price (6/19/04; 18:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 122263)
===

THEREFORE we have FOUR (4) WINNERS !!!!

Sir Phil288 wins the "First prize" of an Uruguay FIVE (5) Peso gold coin which contains 0.2501 oz. net fine gold.

"Second Prize" goes to Lady Waverider, an U.S. Silver Eagle, which contains one ounce of pure Silver.

Because of a TIE for "THIRD PRIZE" ---
BOTH Sir Price and Sir Mackattack shall ALSO recieve an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.

CONGRATULATIONS to ALL four WINNERS and to those that entered the POG CONTEST !

Will EACH WINNER please provide to Marie at USAGOLD --- Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., their Forum posting "HANDLES" and REAL Names, together with their Snailmail SHIPPING ADDRESS, so as to be able to mail the PRIZES ! Marie may be reached at the email address of: marie@usagold.com

THANKS ALL !
<;-)
canamami
(07/06/2004; 19:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122797)
Ag Mountain - reply
Ag Mountain,

Actually, I don't play contracts. Also, I do own a bit of physical gold.

I owned shares in a junior exploration company, which went bust partly due to the protracted manipulation of the POG by the cabal, which could only manipulate the price with the provision of some physical by the CB's. My old silver company warrants also went bust due to the manipulation. I also currently own warrants and shares in other mid-sized producer gold companies, as well as gold mutual funds.

Basically, I see at least some serious link between the paper and the physical market. The Comex has not defaulted on a gold contract yet. Those who demand physical delivery through the Comex do get physical delivery. Basically, the paper market is manipulated because there is sufficient physical made available to effect the manipulation. The main source of such physical must be the CB's complicit in the manipulation.

The point is: We cannot ignore the role of the CB's in supporting the "cabal". The manipulation can destroy the ordinary rythms of the market. It can kill one's gold share investments. Even with physical, it can affect the value of your physical if you ever have to rely upon it, or if the gold-holder dies and the estate (including gold holdings) must be liquidated at a given time.

A lot of people on the gold sites say that the CB's are out of physical, but this is just speculation. No one really knows except the CB's who loaned out or sold the gold.
Ned
(07/06/2004; 19:29:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122798)
NOT to rock the boat.............
.........but to continue on the 'devil's advocate' trail.........

Heard an investment advisor ask recently, "If the Chinese Reminbi is to be re-valued upwards why would they be converting their holdings to a 'currency'(gold) that will devalue against it?"

Seems like a reasonable question, no?

If that theory is plausible why wouldn't I (if I was a Chinese person) convert all gold to Reminbi, wait for the Reminbi/dollar revaluation and then buy gold.

So with this/these theories is the Chinese person really buying gold or is the Reminbi/dollar revaluation baloney?
One must be false, yes?
Ned
(07/06/2004; 20:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122799)
canamami
For the life of me I cannot understand why the 'manipulation' has not been figured out.

Often I ask, on this forum and others, "What happened at 11:30am? " or "Who did what at 2:00pm?" or such similiar questions. Today I ask, "What happened today just a minute or two after 10:00am? Seldom is there an answer. Occasionally, there is an obvious answer such as 2:15pm (FOMC) or 8:30 am (Payroll report)but far too often no one seems to know. It is a mystery.

Today smelled of manipulation. Someone said that it was the lack of terrorism over the US holiday weekend. Why didn't gold fold at the open if that was the case. Another thing is the gold up several dollars today, down several dollars tomorrow on little or no news. Why?

So with all the 'coverage' on this forum and other gold forums and dozens and dozens of analysts and gold commentors why can't today's wicked drop at 10:00am be accounted for? Why is today's drop such a mystery as it often is? Is it CB selling? Perhaps and if so why do we not know? We (gold bulls) have several thousand (millions?) of eyes and ears out there, why do 'we' not know?

BB posted a pdf a year or so ago, "CB held gold" exactly 32,000 tonnes. The same number that it has been for years and years. Co-incidence? Howe and Bolser and Murphy and ALL those guys say CB's have half, 16,000 tonnes. WHY DO WE NOT KNOW? For crying out loud the United States don't even know how much gold they have. Unbelievable.

The citizens of the US have a government that says they have some 8500 tonnes of gold as 'monetary reserves' same as they say they have X Euros and Y Yen and Z donuts but they haven't done an independant physical audit in OVER 25 YEARS. IT"S LIKE SAYING WE HAVE A BILLION EURO, AND 100 BILLION YEN AND A BILLION SWISSIES AND 8500 TONNES OF GOLD BUT WE HAVEN'T COUNTED IT SINCE 1976.........YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO BELIEVE US.

Give me a break! What a crock of elephant dung. We can't figure out how much CB held gold there is because the root of all deception is the US Treasury. They refuse to count it! The reserve currency of the world and the superpower of the world and they won't show their measly, miserable gold. If it wasn't so sickening it would be the funniest thing ever!

It's the biggest, fattest, evilest lie EVAR. If we each bought an oz. of gold the lie would be over. Eliminate CB (aka crooked, lying) gold and the game is over.

We have moaned and groaned for 24 years but we can end the sorry story in one day if we wake up! HELLO!



Beginning and end of story.

PRITCHO
(07/06/2004; 21:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122800)
TEST
TESTING
PRITCHO
(07/06/2004; 22:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122801)
REACH A BIGGER AUDIENCE RE MANIPULATION - -
Hi there. This is my first post.I have been lurking for some years & very much enjoy the overall quality of the posts @USAGOLD.

I hold physical gold & silver & some shares -which I don't want to talk about right now:) Here in Australia the price of Gold in local $ terms has dropped around $26 in less than 2 weeks. Not very uplifting to say the least.In the longer term I see Gold being worth muliples of todays price
BUT --- its not easy to sit through the daily/weekly & ongoing manipulation. Just look at todays action & how the drop was slammed in just before the close.Physical prices apart from the USA are in many currencies --under the buying prioce of 2 yrs ago! (Certainly in Oz)

Reading todays posts(Ned,canamimi,Ag Mountain)I remembered I had read (Today) at a neighbouring site a letter calling for Media coverage. I think it's a GREAT IDEA -- any publicity would be better than the NIL we enjoy right now. Here tis:

(PUBLICISE THE MANIPULATED MARKETS!)

I'm sick of being always a victim as an investor in the PRECIOUS METALS MARKET. It's about time we all decided to do something tangible about it.

Some years ago I first suggested to Bill Murphy that some well placed ads might help to make public what we knew about manipulation.The idea was not thought workable because of the cost.
A notion I do not agree with!

In APRIL ( 04 ) I brought up the subject again -this time sending an outline to Chris Powell as well as talking with him on the phone.
His response:
---------------------------------
"I spoke twice today with GATA Chairman Bill
Murphy about the advertising idea you and I
discussed this morning, and he liked it very
much. While I never got around to writing
an outline for it tonight, I expect to do so
this weekend and will forward it to GATA's
other board members. I expect they'll give
their approval and I'll let you know."
---------------------------
There was no further response from Chris Powell

In May of this year I E/Mailed the following letter to Bill Murphy -Re LE METROPOLE CAFE --

-------------------------------------------
Hi there Bill. As a confirmed Precious metal believer I want to give you some feed back --wanted or not : )

In my opinion & as a paid up Cafe Member I get bored $hitless with some of your commentary. It goes right over the top & does no good for the cause ( GATA ) or your website. I 100% believe that the metals are manipulated --you'd have to be stupid to say otherwise. However hearing & seeing the same same comments parroted on a daily /weekly /yearly basis does not help overmuch. In fact the opposite!

The rhetoric needs toning down if you really want to keep credibility. Just print what happens --at least some of the time instead of the endless rant. The rant is fine if it is used more judicially & backed up with specifics.

Also & most importantly its about TIME to get the act together & place some small ads in MAJOR print outlets to alert the public as to what's happening. Prior to placing ads you should be approaching all your subscribers & other Gold Friendly Websites asking for donations that will be kept in a Trust Fund prior to being used for media ads. The ads do not have to cost an arm & leg --- by careful positioning they only need to give an OUTLINE -- then point to a web page where the guts of the message is contained. It is essential that a separate web address be established so that some of the more extreme claims ( true or misleading ) do not initially put people off.

This is WHY in recent correspondence with Chris Powell I have suggested ( strongly ) that only SILVER manipulation be talked about. It will be easier to prove & will not muddy the public perception to start. The silence coming from GATA / Le Cafe is deafening --- commonsense asks what are the vested interests in NOT going public?

A lot of good people have given up on GATA & Le Cafe mainly for the reasons outlined above. To reiterate: There is no point in parroting non stop about the same old/ same old to the same people --it makes little sense."

-------------------------------------------------
The response was in De Nile: ) I did not renew my membership.

I believe in what I wrote to Bill. We have to take the fight into the open where there is a huge audience. The cost need not be huge. I believe that interested parties would contribute to a well run MEDIA CAMPAIGN.

WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK ?? IF YOU SUPPORT THIS STAND UP & BE COUNTED. SAY SOMETHING! PLEASE
Please also comment if you have a problem with the above.
---------------------------------------------------------

Pritcho
Chris Powell
(07/06/2004; 22:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122802)
On reaching a bigger audience about manipulation
Pritcho, the advertising proposal was not met with a lot of enthusiasm by GATA's board. While it wasn't rejected either, the board thought that it wasn't likely to produce much and that our efforts should be directed at people and organizations who control substantial investment funds or otherwise have economic power. We are doing that now and have an especially sensitive initiative under way. This initiative seems to have been cordially received by the other side, so I'm hopeful that something very important may come of it. But GATA is a small, volunteer organization with limited funds and we have to rely on encouraging OTHERS in the precious metals community to undertake their own agitation wherever they are. Even the smallest effort is more promising than leaving the effort to someone else. For starters, any stockholder may raise the market manipulation issue with his company's management and ask that the company act on it ... if only by making a contribution to GATA. If GATA didn't have to worry about money, we'd hire an agency and follow the advertising route very quickly.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
TheJuniorMiner
(07/06/2004; 22:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122803)
Ned:

"For the life of me I cannot understand why the 'manipulation' has not been figured out."

I would start by saying that most that post on this forum have "figured it out". Many will also tell you that owing the real thing is much wiser than toying around in the futures market.

I found it extremely interesting that silver, gold and copper sold off big time within minutes of each other and for about the same duration. Manipulation is an interesting beast and perhaps there are a myriad of answers.

First, it is done because it can be done.

Second, so many traders are so technical and put such close stops to positions that it easy to break them.

Third can include central banks, governments and large institutions.

Who really knows on any given day? Someday the charts will not react like they used to, someday the mathematical programs will err, someday something will happen that isn't supposed to, someday gold and silver will break free.

We are playing around in the land of giants and you must have a lot of patience.

Glenn

TheJuniorMiner
(07/06/2004; 22:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122804)
previous post to Ned

I certainly ment owning , to own ...certainly you dont want to owe gold.

My apologies.

Glenn
OvS
(07/06/2004; 23:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122805)
Canada Dry offers 100 oz of pure Gold.
Take a look at a big bottle of
Canada Dry. They offer 100 oz.
of gold. No purchase required.
They make a mistake: on the
bottle they say 100 oz. of 14 K
gold worth about 34,000 dollars.
On their webpage they say it is
100 oz.of pure gold.
Someone outside the gold-community
had a great idea. It will make many
aware of gold. Great advertisement.
If this kind of promotion catches
on it might be significant....OvS
mikal
(07/06/2004; 23:10:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122806)
Poor "Forma"
That odd accounting method, Pro Forma
(according to form) is STILL widely employed
in the US in lieu of genuine earnings statements.
This must do wonders for our image overseas,
especially where GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) are mandatory and culturally ingrained.

Where can the world go to play,
Count cards but not dally to stay,
Where they'll deal from a deck
That's been marked all to heck
In a famous casino that's called USA?
PRITCHO
(07/06/2004; 23:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 122807)
On reaching a bigger audience about manipulation
Chris thanks for your reply.I still think its a very worth while idea and I agree with the author that it need not cost a huge amt to simply place small ads to get attention.

As a long time supporter of GATA & LE Cafe myself I am puzzled why you bring up the "worry" of money for such an endeavour -- To the best of my knowledge in following GATA et al I cannot remember an appeal to precious metal investors asking for $ for a Media Campaign? Please correct me if I'm wrong on this. GATA just may be surprised at the depth of feeling out there in the Gold/Silver community for a POSITIVE PLAN. Regards

Pritcho

silver star
(07/06/2004; 23:37:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122808)
media blitz
Power of the press! Power of real money, silver! Get the word out to the masses and manipulations will stop short. Drain the comex dry and the price can only rise. Silver can lead gold up. Bumper stickers across the country! The challenge is to come up with the most concise wording. What better place than here? Centennial PM can make a few bucks by printing and selling the stickers. Ya'll get to cogitating to come up with the most catchy, informative, one liner that portrays the need to hold gold and/or silver.

REAL MONEY FOR REAL PEOPLE-OWN SILVER!
Goldendome
(07/06/2004; 23:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122809)
Get the word to the right, Bill!
Ehh-Pritcho! Your e-mailing the wrong Bill...if you want results start mailing to Gates not Murphey. Just tell him to, buy-Buy-BUY!! A few $billion here, a Few $billion later, who can say? That might have some effect. What-da-ya-think?
Golden Lionheart
(07/06/2004; 23:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122810)
Gold manipulation?
www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htmStudents of the gold market may find the above site of interest.

Breakdown for 29 June showed the following:-

Large Speculators Long 38% Short 21%
Small Speculators 23% 8%
Industry Hedgers 30% 62%
Spreads 9% 9%

The site also has the weekly figures from 2002-04

Enjoy!
Golden Lionheart
(07/06/2004; 23:58:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122811)
More gold manipulation!
Bill Gates buying billions of dollars worth of the yellow metal! Now that really would be manipulation methinks.
mikal
(07/07/2004; 00:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122812)
@silver star
Welcome to the forum and a fine
first effort you've made. "Get the message out"
is what we do here and to be honest,
Michael Kosares has been at it for far longer than
most anyone with his FREE newsletters and
cutting-edge analysis before the internet was born.
That's a catchy little slogan you've rendered there, and
if I were to put a few up on my bumper, I'd be lucky
if I had a bumper the next day, between the
politically correct patriot rednecks, stoic
religious fundamentalists and the local police! ;)
Strike Back With Silver
S%*@ Yes I Buy Silver
Sue Me But Not My Silver
God Gave Us Gold
Goldbug On Board
Get Gold Before It's Gone
Give Gold Before You're Old
Life Is Good, But Gold...
TheJuniorMiner
(07/07/2004; 00:15:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122813)
Goldendome

Ah ..Goldendome.. how 'bout throw in the Walton family, Warren B, & Mark Cuban.... oh what a dream.

Me thinks the Hunt Brothers taught them a lesson.

Time is on my side so let the cards fall as they may.

mikal
(07/07/2004; 00:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122814)
@Goldendome
Yea, I hear Gates has a soft spot for gold.
Aristotle
(07/07/2004; 00:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122815)
Let's give Ned's questions something nearly answer-ish
Ned (msg#: 122799) wants to know:
"What happened today just a minute or two after 10:00am? Seldom is there an answer. Occasionally, there is an obvious answer such as 2:15pm (FOMC) or 8:30 am (Payroll report)"

"So with all the 'coverage' on this forum why can't today's wicked drop at 10:00am be accounted for?"


Hey there, Ned-man, good questions. Timewise, the benchmark you're probably looking for as the pesky little thing the market players used to stub their toe and fall all over themselves today was the London PM Fix. Ten o'clock in New York (if my Geo-Mickey isn't lying to me) jives with the 3:00 London fix. When Deutsche Bank, Soci�t� G�n�rale, Honkers & Shankers, ScotiaMocatta, and Barclays put their books together and conjured a fix ($394.50) that was $3.90 lower than the morning's ($398.40) it was enough to put everyones undies in a bunch over at COMEX. From that jumping-off point all you gotta do is consider just two of the media snips from the Daily Market Report for the "plunge" to take a bit more shape and make as much sense as can be made outta trading in paper Gold.

#1) "Pre-placed stop-loss sell orders [in gold futures] then added to the fray by increasing sell-side volumes."

#2) "Traders said they saw as technically bearish a crossing of the 100-day below the 200-day moving average, which transpired during the day's shakeout. Many speculative funds use computerized trading programs that sell or buy on such signals."

'Tis all nothin' but a passing thing. A really good thing, if *IF* you know what to do with it.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Goldless Heathen
(07/07/2004; 00:55:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122816)
My Dead Horse
The 'independence' of Gold is a direct function of the number of individuals that own physical Gold.

bumber sticker-

If You Don't Own Gold- THEY Do.
Toolie
(07/07/2004; 03:13:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122817)
Bumper Sticker
Follow me home and steal my gold.
:-)
Goldless Heathen
(07/07/2004; 03:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122818)
Toolie's insight.
That sorta puts an end to the bumper sticker idea ; )
Ned
(07/07/2004; 04:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122819)
Thanks Ari-man
That answer is almost answer-ish!

I see spot has retraced itself EXACTLY to the point when it was yesterday at this fine hour of 6:35 eastern. So today's question is are the paper traders FICKLE? Are they DENSE? Do they have the foggiest idea of what is going on?

What I like to see is the RESILENCY of our gold friend in these last couple weeks. The bearish tone is now giving way to a bullish look!

Nothing like a bold, noisy post to awaken the sleeping GIANTS, is there! There have been more posts in the last 12 hours than in the last 2 days. Time to crack our necks, bury some paper traders and GO OUT THERE AND BUY AN ONZE OF GOLD!

Let's see if these CHUMPS at the CB's can pour it out faster than we can take it in. I think I'll do a little overtime these next couple weeks and when I get my FUNNY MONEY I'll exchange it for the REAL McCOY. It's the REAL THING!

Gold. Get you an onze and end this charade!
Ned
(07/07/2004; 05:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122820)
Terrorist attacks
On a very serious and sobering note I was watching CNN last night, a high ranking offical from Homeland Security (sorry, didn't catch the guys name) suspected and I believe it is also the position of H.S. that a terrorist event will occur between a few days before and a couple weeks before the November election.

Walking on eggs here trying not to say the wrong thing because this is a VERY sensitive thing I suspect that physical will be a beneficiary simply because of the threat. There will be a lot more said and speculated as we roll through summer; it will be a strange fall I am sure.

It has been said and I am in no way, shape or form qualifying this statement that "buying gold is unpatriotic...approaching terrorism". I have said and I say it again that I do not buy gold and wish for 'mishaps'. I don't think any of 'us' do. I buy gold because I know that 'mishaps' will occur. It is unfortunately, at present times, the way of the world, our folding, fading paper world. It's not a question of IF, but WHEN.........

So that buying gold is a 'hedge' (it is of course not only this) against bad times (define bad times as you wish). Homeland security believes bad times will happen. There will be gold buying, perhaps a lot of gold buying pre-election.

Will it be preceived as a crime to buy gold pre-election? Is it shameful to recommend gold as a hedge pre-election.

Anyone wish to comment on this most delicate subject?

TIA
MK
(07/07/2004; 07:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122821)
Manipulation and a Short History Lesson
We know that someone is expending an effort to cap this market, but we should keep in mind that someone else is expending an effort to put a floor under it. For a war to occur -- and there is a war on gold -- there need be two sides. Elements on Main Street are pro-Gold. Elements on Wall Street are anti-gold. And the battle between the two goes on. If the group attempting to keep the price down is so powerful, how did gold get from $260 to $400 over the past couple of years? Who's winning? Who's losing? Who has the strong moral position? Who the weak? Who has history on their side? Who pop culture superficiality? Assess this to the core. Don't dwell on the superficial. And you will come to the reasons why you should own gold, why it would be foolhardy to give (it)-up, and why in the end, we win.

Keep in mind that the London Gold Pool of the late 1960s and early 1970s did break down after an enormous effort to keep gold at $35. At the time most in the financial world, including most investors, believed that the powerful pool would never fail -- that gold would be contained.

Also keep in mind that the great, contemporary bull markets in gold have followed elections in the United States -- 1973-75, 1977-1979 ............ and the lesser bull market of 2001-2003 (which I see as a prelude to bigger and better things.) There are reasons for that as well.

The stage is set. Accumulate. Watch. Wait.
mikal
(07/07/2004; 07:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122822)
Incipient interest rate intrigue
http://www.forbes.com/business/2004/07/06/cz_rl_0706soapbox.html Freddie Mac's Impending Fiasco
Forbes.com- Richard Lehman - July 6, 2004
Excerpt:
"Freddie could be just one car in the train wreck
coming due to the artificially low interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve in 2001."
Federal_Reserves
(07/07/2004; 11:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122823)
Yukos Crisis - Bankruptcy?
Gold Has Biggest Gain in 13 Months as Investors Seek Haven
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures in New York had their biggest gain in 13 months after Russia's central bank reduced reserve requirements to avert a banking crisis, boosting the metal's appeal as a haven.

Russia central bank lowered the amount of money banks must set aside to 3.5 percent from 7 percent, effective tomorrow. Gold gained on Friday after U.S. employers in June added about half as many jobs as expected by analysts, sending the dollar to its biggest decline in almost four months.

``There are some problems appearing in Russia, and the employment numbers on Friday didn't look that good,'' said Robert McEwen, chief executive of Toronto-based Goldcorp Inc., Canada's fourth-largest gold producer. ``Some of the problems that everybody thought had disappeared are starting to appear again, and that has some people concerned.''

Gold for August delivery rose $10, or 2.5 percent, to $4030 an ounce at 12:53 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would result in the biggest one-day gain since May 19, 2003. Prices were 16 percent higher than a year earlier.

Gold also climbed as economists scaled back their expectations of U.S. economic growth, sending the dollar lower against the euro and yen. Hedge funds have boosted their holdings in gold futures for two straight weeks, figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

``I expect hedge funds to continue favoring gold as an alternative asset,'' said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors LLC, a commodity consulting company based in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

Russian banks are struggling to prevent a crisis after the central bank in May shut OOO Sodbusinessbank amid money- laundering accusations, sparking a squeeze on lending. Consumer bank Guta ceased operations yesterday.
mikal
(07/07/2004; 11:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122825)
"Debt ceiling" charades and borrowed time
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr070704.shtmlDEBT LOAD... THE REAL ECONOMY
Ed Henry - July 7, 2004
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/07/2004; 12:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122826)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
J-Bullion
(07/07/2004; 12:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122827)
Yukos-bankruptcy
"Gold for August delivery rose $10, or 2.5 percent, to $4030 an ounce at 12:53 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange"

I think they are getting a bit ahead of themselves, that price ($4030/ounce) won't be reached at least for another year or so.
TownCrier
(07/07/2004; 12:52:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122828)
Federal Reserve injects new money, permanent adds getting larger
A couple short years ago open market operations to add "permanent" new cash to nation's banking system were typically seen as coupon passes in the ballpark of $700 million. These days we are more typically seeing permanent adds which are nearly double that size.

Today, to cite a recent example, while the market in fed funds was behaving in accord with the latest FOMC directive to target a 1.25% overnight (annualized) rate, the Fed's NY Trading Desk saw fit to conduct a coupon pass, buying outright $1.557 billion in Treasury securities.

Earlier in the morning the Fed had also injected $10 billion in temporary funds through overnight repurchase agreements.

R.
Aristotle
(07/07/2004; 13:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 122829)
Ned, old habits die hard
That whole "anti-patriotism" schtick directed at good folks wanting to have Gold is a throwback to the old propaganda in the days of Civil War greenbacks, war bond, and, generally speaking, as a bank manager's official analgesic in the heady days of Gold Standard currency convertibility giving rise to bank-run migraines.

Anyone in today's world mouthing the words, "buying gold is unpatriotic," is a moron, plain and simple. Having gone global like it has all these many years, the fate of the U.S. Dollar is really outta our own hands now. It would be the acme of foolishness for anyone to imply that U.S citizens have any ability to materially affect the outcome, and even more ridiculous to suggest that buying Gold to protect themselves from a global shift in reserve structure reflects any lessening of their own red-white-and-blue-blooded admiration for their country.

If anyone doubts me, I suggest they buy themselves a nice tall stack of turn-of-the-century $20 Liberty or Augustus Saint-Gaudens coins. I'm sure they'll feel national pride right quick, and a healty, empowering sense of personal independence -- the kind of character that every successful nation needs among its populations.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
goldbaron
(07/07/2004; 13:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 122830)
NED perception
Sir It can be perceived as a crime if one is willing to allow others to decide for you: "for your best interest" or "for your own good". If it is a crime,buy now and avoid the rush. Shameful?? with a 5000-year history of safety, honor and honesty? I doubt it. I hope our host does not ban me. Oil makes you go,
Gold makes you grow.
Ned
(07/07/2004; 14:47:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122831)
Thanks goldbaron and Ari
http://www.jsmineset.comHere's a twist to the 'patriotic' discussion of buying gold. Today from our friend Mr.Gold :

"A rising dollar as the momentum of the US recovery stalls is the last thing any rational economist should wish for. Yes, a rising dollar would cause gold to fall while increasing the US Trade Deficit, hurting exports and acting as a break on the US economy. Since gold and the dollar are tied together in the inverse, no central bank(s) or the COMEX maniacs can break that relationship as the world market for gold as a currency grows.

So higher gold, which implicitly means a lower dollar, is good for the US economy and lower gold prices, which implicitly means a higher dollar, are bad for US economic activity. In time, even the num-nuts on the COMEX will wake up to this reality.

You can bet that the funds selling yesterday got reamed quite nicely and like the goofs they are will learn by the Pavlov method that what I have told you is true. Eventually even the army of knuckle draggers will wake up and discover that putting your hand into the fire is not good. Then the COMEX bombers will finally be on the long side -probably at $1064 on gold because they are really really thick."

LOL.

So perhaps, in a long winded twist, it IS patriotic to buy gold because it helps the economy!

Don't be a "num-nutted, knuckle-dragging, thick, goofy maniac", be a patriot.

Buy gold, the hold in your hand REAL McCOY!



USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/07/2004; 15:00:19 MDT - Msg ID: 122832)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- excerpts of closing U.S. market rap ---

Gold futures climbed nearly $10 an ounce Wednesday to close above $402 ... with a sharply weaker U.S. dollar sparking renewed investment interest in the metal...

COMEX August gold settled up $9.70 at $402.70 an ounce, reversing a $5.70 loss on Tuesday.

The dollar hit its lowest price in more than three months at $1.2389 per euro on Wednesday, as traders bet that mixed U.S. data and high oil prices would dissuade the Fed from raising interest rates too aggressively.

Gold has allure as an asset that holds its value against inflation and a depreciating dollar...

"Based on a weaker dollar against most of the major currencies, gold has proved to be a true market favorite among long-term investors,"said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services...

With a weaker dollar, overseas investors can leverage strengthened currencies to buy more gold.

Dealers agreed that gold stood to gain ground Wednesday anyway, following its own pronounced decline Tuesday as fund players unwound exposure built up ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend. However, the fall in the U.S. currency to three-month lows against the euro overnight added fuel to gold's rise, and allowed Aug futures prices to get off to a firm start and easily vault the resistance in place around $400...

The market sees this kind of "thin summertime trading" whenever bearish investors get too overconfident or their bullish counterparts show too much anxiety, said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. Such market conditions can really "chop up many non-well-funded traders because the swings in price can be just so incredible," he cautioned...

John Tyree, commodities analyst at brokerage house Rosenthal Collins Group, also said that while the recent gains and volatility might attract follow-through momentum and fund interest over the near term, prices remain largely locked within a rising trading band defined by the higher price lows and higher price highs charted over the past two months.

"Things are obviously a little jittery out there, so I guess you just have to be on your toes and be ready to jump on any move once we do break this range," he added...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)---
misetich
(07/07/2004; 15:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122833)
Chain Store Sales Finish June in the Red
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040707/economy_retail_redbook_1.htmlSnip:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores finished June below May's growth pace, as retailers failed to see strong business after the middle of the month, a report said on Wednesday.

Sales at major retailers increased by 3.3 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended June 26, slightly up from the preceding week's 3.2 percent pace, said Redbook Research, an independent company. Sales in June were down 0.2 percent compared with May.
****************
Misetich

From auto sales to retail the trend of slowing growth continues -

Consumer spending has been resilient in the past decade- yet ther latest trend demonstrates Real Price Inflation, lack of meaningful jobs, and little wage increases are taking their toll

The Feds have failed in their primary objective of Job Creation -

...the hoped increase in corporate spending is showing signs of slowing from earlier periods - earning warnings are again accelerating

...yet Price inflation cannont be HIDDEN any longer... as the prices of raw materials and fabricated items are going through the roof

The US $ has commenced its second leg down - which should take us to the 80-85 level with corresponding gold prices up to $450

Simultenously The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe will continue - creating unprecedented havoc setting the stage for Phase lll of the gold bull express... with a target of $450-800 as the Feds will reverse course and LOWER IR again!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
mikal
(07/07/2004; 16:22:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122834)
GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2273Yahoo! Groups : gata Messages : Message 2273 of 2273
July 7, 2004
Michael Kosares and Jim Sinclair-
Kosares: Manipulation and a Short History Lesson
Sinclair: Higher gold prices help the U.S. economy
Ned
(07/07/2004; 16:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122835)
Looking good! Extreme caution for traders.....
Spot sitting right on 200 DMA. DX broken below 200 DMA. Many small cap miners sitting on 50 DMA. Man we are close to a B/O!

Just need a little baby push over the edge.

.....or forget about all the excitement, get some of the REAL THING and relax!

Here's to the push tomorrow.
Cometose
(07/07/2004; 16:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122836)
Overnight Us Market Indexes
I just consulted with my son and asked him who would be trading in the markets right now since our markets are now closed. He said Japan and I said Hawaii , and China as well. I told him that the markets were up marginally today but that two days ago they were down pretty hard. Then I told him that right now the Nasdaq was down 17 overnight and the S&P was down 6+ and that I rarely see them hitting this hard in the overnight this early in the afternoon. Then I asked him what he thought I should do , since he is in Arkansas. He said short the market . Then he said , " Don't you think they will try to buy the market back up in the morning ?" I said " Yes , so if they want to hit the market overnight , I'll close my position before the open in the morning" if I decide to go ahead so the PPT can't get at my profit.
melda laure
(07/07/2004; 17:26:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122837)
Prudence, fools, and blind faith
It is always patriotic to be prepared.

History is written by those who were prepared.

During the civil war, several companies of volunteers outfitted themselves with expensive repeating rifles at their own expense so as to be MORE prepared than the other guy. (origin of the phrase "that damn yankee invention").

During WWII, the Dine volunteered ("have to honor that stupid treaty even if the other guy doesn't") and showed up to the induction center bringing their own guns.

During the 50's, thousands of your countrymen prepared holes in the ground stocked with canned goods because they thought the bomb would fall. Nobody called them sissies.

When the towers were hit, those who were prudent decided to exit the towers in an orderly fashion. To call their "exit" cowardice is just plain silly. Nor can it therefor be unpatriotic to leave a burning building or plan by wearing asbestos underpants.

No doubt Columbus had a bumper sticker that said, "No God, No guns, no gold - No Glory." But in any case, assuming you are like the majority of sane people, and do not relish the thought of actually having to use weapons to defend yourself, it is still always prudent to prepare for what you think will happen. And prudence is never the same as cowardice. Ned, if anyone tells you otherwise, smile, say "I see..." and pay them no heed.
Waverider
(07/07/2004; 18:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122838)
Nervous Depositors Make Run on Banks
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/08/002.html"Rumor fueled fear and fear fueled panic, sparking the biggest run on Russian banks since the 1998 crisis. Spooked by the closure Tuesday of mid-sized Guta and reports that top-tier Alfa was on the ropes, depositors descended on banks in droves Wednesday, intensifying a trend that has seen an estimated $5 billion, or about 10 percent of all household savings, taken out of the system in the last two months..."
Aristotle
(07/07/2004; 18:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122839)
Hi melda laure
I liked your advice to Ned [i.e., "if anyone tells you otherwise, smile, say 'I see...' and pay them no heed,"] but personally, I'd prefer to see him take a more proactive approach. That is, take things a step farther and call the person a moron (but maybe be a wee bit more delicate about it than that.) If anything's universal (besides the appeal of Gold,) it's that people HATE to feel stupid.

The craziest thing is it's paradoxical. It's almost impossible to "force feed" information to somebody who doesn't know which way is up, however, if you flatly challenge their viewpoint without watering the challenge down with explanations, they'll often respond (privately) by doing their own research and coming up to speed on their own.

Back when I was younger and quite positively knew "everything there was to know" about all things financial, I had the very VERY good fortune of running into someone who'd already "been there, done that." You know... having a head full of steam and all.

I don't recall how the topic came around but the important point of the tale is somehow I started talking about how the money supply is expanded through banks. I mean, I knew, baby... I really *KNEW* how it was done -- as if the information had been handed to me by God himself on one of his slow days.

Weeeeeellll.... long story short, this guy I was talking with simply shook his head and said, "No. That's not right."

The most frustrating thing for me was he wouldn't explain on any level or at any point where his view differed from the one I'd put forth.

It was probably one of the top five favors anybody has ever done for me. It gnawed at me and forced me to reevaluate every point of my so-called understanding of the way the world worked from the ground up.

It was a lotta work, lemme tell ya! And then, suddenly, there it was! "Eureka!" And so, now I've joined the elite club of 379 people in the world who actually *DO KNOW* the true nature of money as though it were in fact handed down by from on high... (a little humor, there.) From that single epiphany onward, I've seen money and Gold each in a whole new light, and it's proving to be a veritable financial salvation.

Anyway, the whole point of the thing is that sometimes the best we can do is call the wayward people's attention to a few signposts (like those put up by FOA,) because mostly they'll insist on doing all the driving for themselves anyway, even if it's only to wreck themselves in a head-strong effort trying to run down those very same posts. Ah, well...

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Steve22
(07/07/2004; 21:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 122840)
gold contest
I am rather annoyed at what I perceive may be a political contest outcome. Please forgive me if I am incorrect, but it seems that either my wording was too heavy handed, my take too obvious (it didn't seem so to me!) or depressing, or the political process has had its way again. I am going to venture to ask the judges exactly how their selection criteria functioned?
Goldendome
(07/07/2004; 22:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122841)
Steve 22-- Another lesson in life's unfairness, ehh?

Dear Steve 22: Does there have to be at least "One", in every contest? ....And you know what I mean...feeling slighted and all...Look, just be pleased that there are contests at all, and that we all are afforded an opportunity to participate. And the entry fee is certainly reasonable--right? Yes Steve--we can all see that you probably spent two weeks in the library researching your paper, and undoubtedly, honed your draft four or five times to assure that it was just right. ...And yes, it was a wonderful essay. But Steve 22, since you were the very last entry on the very last day, there was a 50% deduction in your score, since we knew that you poached from everyone else's entry.
Steve22
(07/07/2004; 23:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122842)
gold contest
If by poached you mean that I verified some intuition, and filled in some blanks here at the usagold hall of fame discussions, then yes, I poached. If by poached you mean that I used previous gold contest essays as the basis for my essay, this allegation is completely untrue. If what I wrote had been said in a clear way previous to my posting, I would not have posted it at all.

If I did not appreciate the opportunity for contest I wouldn't have spent so much time on it. For your information, it took a total of about 20-30 hours. Not two weeks, but not a small chunk of time either. While quantity definitely does not equal quality, I cannot find where another author in the contest so thoroughly and even handedly examined the questions at hand.
Steve22
(07/07/2004; 23:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122843)
gold contest
I'm not mad. I don't even feel like I wasted my time. In fact - I'm pursuing other ideas that branch off from Peak Oil/Gold in a fascinating fashion.

I just genuinely believe that the quid pro quo here is skewed.
Liberty Head
(07/08/2004; 00:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122844)
Re: Gold Contest

Quid pro quo - get you some

Best Wishes
Sundeck
(07/08/2004; 00:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122845)
Steve22 - Cheap Oil Contest
Hey, Steve22,

I enjoyed reading your essay (even though I read slowly and it took a while), but I just went back and checked the time of submission. Am I right in my understanding that to be eligible, essays had to be in by "High Noon" Mountain Time on 25Jun? Yours is time-stamped 14:29:38MT, which is later than High Noon...

Another point...reading and posting to this site is a **privilege** - and one that I (for one) value greatly. On top of this, Sir MK and his Company provides **free** contests from time to time with great prizes and all may enter. They are beneficial in several ways (in addition to the prizes that may be won). For example, one gets to learn from other people's thoughts and experience, and one also gets to hone one's own understanding and knowledge by competing.

Please don't feel let down by the judges' decision...political or otherwise, their criteria are **entirely** at their discretion...and so it should be.

I hope you will please take these comments kindly...they are offered kindly.

Cheers

:-)
Goldendome
(07/08/2004; 00:05:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122846)
Steve 22--Your new essay assignment!

Steve 22: Happy to read that you aren't mad, that would really spoil the fun! Yes, expand on your ideas of, whatever...Gold, oil. Oh, I've got your next essay assignment, ready? Here it is:

Why did Gold advance today nearly $10.00, when the only news of note, was that an ex-trial lawyer from North Carolina, is teaming up with a guy named Kerry from Massachusetts?

Please, keep your essay under 1000 words.

I just got word from the contest Gnomes, remember this: sticking to the price contests only, takes only a minute and eliminates those disappointments based upon subjective grading. Now, have a stiff one--and then, hit the sack!
Goldless Heathen
(07/08/2004; 00:56:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122847)
Catch Steve22
Hey Stevetwotwo;
I enjoyed your essay and it's just great you spent so much time on it and everyone reading it can see that. But don't you think it is kinda lame to whine about the Judge's choices? Have you had the opportunity to own physical Gold yet? I know those were really attractive prizes our GENEROUS hosts were GIVING away so, maybe like me, you were really hoping to get some of that Gold Booty. Can I suggest you shop your essay around? Make some paper with your paper and come back here and BUY some Gold from CPM. I know of several Peak Oil websites and newsletters, and at least one major news and opinion portal, that are looking for content and could use your insights, especially vis-avis the Gold issue, and might pay you for what you've written.
Out of respect for the Forum policy concerning promotions I won't mention these URL's but a quick Google search will lead you to many a venue where you might EARN something with the essay and then you can buy some Gold and you won't feel so left out.
968
(07/08/2004; 02:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122848)
@ GAB
Morning GAB, last week you mentioned a possible US attack against Iran. Perhaps this explains something :
"In the light of the foregoing, the move by Iran to trade oil in dinars seems to be a most critical development,
possibly explaining moves by the United States to accuse it of posing a nuclear threat."
The Iran takes on west's control of oil trading.
(Terry Macalister Wednesday June 16, 2004 The Guardian)
Iran is to launch an oil trading market for Middle East and Opec producers that could threaten the supremacy of London's International Petroleum Exchange. A contract to design and establish a new platform for crude, natural gas and petrochemical trades is expected to be signed with an international consortium within days. Top oil producing countries are determined to seize more control of trading after being advised that existing markets such as the IPE and Nymex in New York are not working in their favour. Three years ago a former compliance director accused the IPE of manipulating prices, although these allegations were dismissed after an investigation. The Tehran oil bourse is scheduled to open in 2005, according to its architect, Mohammad Javad Asemipour, who is a personal adviser to the Iranian energy minister.
------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------
968 : Iran doesn't want US-confetti for oil with 140000 US/UK soldiers at their borders !!! That should scare the hell out of Washington.
Topaz
(07/08/2004; 02:58:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122849)
alt currency Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=PaperGold is seen once again dragging the chain vis it's alt currency "equals" ... tho the last leg up could be cause for excitement ...whee!!
On the Bond/Dollar/Oil front, the PoO is again separating from Dollar/Bond and a correction is in the offing.
Topaz
(07/08/2004; 02:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122850)
Dollar/Oil ...fyi
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=eom.
misetich
(07/08/2004; 04:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122851)
US increases forecast on crude oil price
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373561639&p=1012571727088Snip:

Strong global demand for oil, limited supply increases and continuing security fears led the US government on Wednesday to raise its central price forecast for US crude over the next 18 months to $37 a barrel.

The monthly oil outlook report of the Energy Information Administration, forecasting arm of the US energy department, said in June that prices for West Texas Intermediate were likely to fall gradually over the rest of 2004 and 2005 to $33 a barrel. As recently as April it forecast crude falling below $30.

The EIA report said: "The chances for even a gradual, sustained decline in crude oil prices through 2005, as previously projected, seem to have diminished." Guy Caruso, chief executive, told Congress yesterday: "While our forecast has crude oil prices easing slightly through third quarter the world market will still be tight as world petroleum demand picks up seasonally in the fourth quarter, increasing potential for unexpected upward price pressure [on oil] this winter."
.....................
Sheikh Ahmed said: "It looks almost certain the market will continue above $30. For that [reason], I think we have to study carefully changing the basket price to about $30-$35."
****************
Misetich
The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe impacts and effects are still in infancy.
The collateral damage, is the US $ (some may argue, its a "precision pointed - rather than collateral damage). As the US $ devalues, oil prices stem higher, increasing the trade deficit and above all imported price inflation.

Thus, US consumers are being taxed indirectly by higher oil prices, slowing spending, whilst simulteneously slowing the US economy, eliminating any hope of job creation, and thus higher budget deficits.

The US $ devaluation - 2nd leg - has just started - which will result in higher imported price inflation.

The Feds have failed in one of their primary objectives, of job creation. The "other shoe to fall" is not increased corporate spending that Sir Greenspan recently alluded to, but it is, the failure to maintain price stability.

Thus the Feds will have failed in BOTH primary objectives. The third unstated Fed objective is to avoid financial calamities and market disruption.

Its difficult to invision how the Fed third objective is going to be accomplished since housing, stock market, bonds, derivatives are in bubble territory.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/08/2004; 05:17:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122852)
Enron Ex-Chief Indicted by U.S. in Fraud Case
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/08/business/08LAY.htmlSnip:

since it was forced into bankruptcy in December 2001, costing investors tens of billions of dollars and putting thousands of employees out of work.
.....................
The majority of the charges against Mr. Lay are said to center on a series of what the government believes are false statements he made to investors, employees and accountants that painted a positive picture of the company's finances at a time when he was selling Enron stock.
......................
"I didn't commit any crime," Mr. Lay, 62, said in the interview. "Based on all the information I had at the time, I don't know of a single statement I made, either publicly or internally, that didn't conform with what I thought the facts to be."
.....................
The centerpiece of the Enron investigations has been the company's complex off-the-books partnerships, which were used to prop up earnings and disguise its growing deb
....................
Prosecutors are said to believe that either at that meeting or at some other points, Mr. Lay misled Andersen about Enron's intent to retain Wessex and invest money in the company. If it did so, the charge against income would not have to be taken; prosecutors say they believe that Enron never intended to make those investments.
...............
At the same time, Mr. Lay was engaged in a series of huge sales of his Enron shares, which financial records show were compelled by his need to pay off bank loans
**********************
Misetich

The big question: why did it take so long to indict him? Ken Lay, Enron fiasco, investment bankers, SEC failure etc is emblematic of a corrupt and self-destructing process.

Corporate governance was said to have improved, yet little signs have emerged, except some little slap on the wrist, on calluding investment bankers-

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Ned
(07/08/2004; 05:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122853)
Are we gonna test June 28th spot $405?
Could be a decisive day. Approaching spot 200 day MA.

As they say, good luck, good trading.
goldquest
(07/08/2004; 07:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122854)
Ken Lay
will be on the pardon list in January. It worked for Marc Rich.
Clink!
(07/08/2004; 07:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122855)
The big question: why did it take so long to indict him?
Hi, Misetich. Proving, repeat PROVING, guilt in white collar crimes is extremely difficult for two main reasons :-

Firstly : Because of the complexity, it is difficult enough to understand what was really done, let alone find a jury of ordinary people capable of understanding and appreciating the subtleties.

Secondly : There must be a clear demonstration of intent to commit a crime - unfortunately, I have met enough genuinely incompetent people in my career to see that proving the difference between malice and stupidity could be tricky. And remember, despite treatment in the press to the contrary, an accused is innocent until proven guilty. Except against the IRS.

Which brings me to my final point. Maybe it took them so long because they wanted to find at least one thing he could be nailed for in an ordinary court. Remember that Al Capone was never jailed for murder, racketeering, etc, but for tax evasion.

C!
Rimh
(07/08/2004; 08:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122856)
Release The Hounds!
Hey Gandalf, what happened? Did you get some high-test Roo meat this time? Or are Spot and Spike finally bored of snoozin' around 393-398 and decided to go for a run? Either way, it's nice to see the dogs up and about again!!!
Gandalf the White
(07/08/2004; 08:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122857)
YES !!! --- Sir Rimh, ----
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GRimh (7/8/04; 08:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 122856)
Release The Hounds!
===
I have been far too busy to watch over the "hounds" lately, BUT it sure looks as if Sir Smeagol is slipping them some of his "GOLDfish"!!!! They LOVE them !!

The GOLD P&F chart was REVISED this MORNING and now shows ANOTHER "GOLDEN" reversal "UPWARD" on the P&F Chart after yesterday's effort!!! TODAY's effort is the BREAKOUT of the downtrend from the April "Fools Day" HIGH of the "$432. square". -----SOOOOOO, guess where "GOLDis" (LOVE that Forum handle) <;-) going NOW ?

ONWARD GOLDHEARTS --TO the MOON!
<;-)
Goldless Heathen
(07/08/2004; 10:16:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122858)
My Other Dead Horse
Couple weeks ago I asked if the Gold Dinar will eat our lunch(was really just a weak pun) nonetheless, look whose coming to Dinar. I think this little coin and the 'social movement' around it are leading us, perhaps via a different route than wished or planned, towards 'Independent Gold' which I have, naively, defined as a direct function of the number of individuals that own and HOLD physical Gold.
ge
(07/08/2004; 10:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122859)
Russia - Nervous Depositors Make Run on Banks
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/07/08/002.html.
968
(07/08/2004; 10:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122860)
What happened ?
To ask the same question as Ned (message# 122799) : what happened today ? Dollar bear too strong, Russian banks - Ruble, didn't the manipulators have enough ammo, gold bull too strong,... ? Why was gold allowed to spike today ?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/08/2004; 10:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122861)
A risk-free request to help you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/08/2004; 10:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122862)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 11:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122863)
How does the end of cheap oil bode for the economy and gold?
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.htmlThe permanent link the Forumers' responses can be found at the Hall of Fame Index -- click url and scroll down to the stack of "gold bars" and beneath the Haiku link atop the stack you will find the link to "The End of Cheap Oil" essays.

Those looking specifically for specie-man's playful post, which I have dubbed "The International House of PUNcakes", can find it seven links lower on the page via the link entitled the Lighter Side of Gold.

R.
TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 11:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122864)
A word or 22 on the prizing process, for Steve
The panel of judges demanded overtime pay when your entry hit their desktops. Admin said "no can do". Judges said "no can judge". It was ugly all around. But then admin brought out a peace offering of sandwiches and cold drinks and everything was right witht the world once again. The evaluation process got underway. To be sure, as difficult as the evaluation phase is for each individual judge on the panel, the consolidation (or reconciliation) phase among the judges is even more difficult. What is to be done when judges do not agree on each other's rankings -- when Judge-B names his top contender and it is discovered that that poster did not even make Judge-D's top ten list? And vice-versa?

Recognizing that our panel of judges thenmselves represented a broad spectrum of interests and insights, and further recognizing that the task was to single out those posts that would best resonate with the broad spectrum represented by USAGOLD's visitors, the solution (reconciliation of rankings) unfolded as thus. The judges' top ten lists were compared, and only those few posters who were in common to all lists made the final cut -- and so broad was the spectrum of rankings, that some who actually ranked first or second on some judge's list were nowhere to be found on another's, whose own first or second choice may have failed to make the cut also.

Of the short list of only those found in common among the top ten lists, the judges' individual rankings per each of these posters were then tallied, and the final rankings awarded based on those results, the lowest combined number representing the winner, and so on.

"My, but this horse is long in the tooth!"

R.
mikal
(07/08/2004; 12:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122865)
Goldbug Al
There is an old prospector named Greenspan,
Who'd sneak off to hike with a pan.
Once strayed onto prime mining land-
Met a Forest Marshal with cuffs in hand,
Barking: "Pay up or get in the van!"
R Powell
(07/08/2004; 12:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122866)
Towncrier....Judging process
Was there no mention from either the judges or the administration of that old, time honored dart picking method? Perhaps it was mentioned just before the drinks and sandwiches arrived? It has been back tested as a stock picking method with satisfactory results, much to the chagrin of high profile analysts....the likes of which that often smile from ear to ear on the peoples' stock picking television channel.

Not a bad day for the POG or for that other white metal either (g).
TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 12:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122867)
Thanks for the link on the Russian bank crisis, ge
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/07/08/002.html(excerpts)
Rumor fueled fear and fear fueled panic, sparking the biggest run on Russian banks since the 1998 crisis.

Spooked by the closure Tuesday of mid-sized Guta and reports that top-tier Alfa was on the ropes, depositors descended on banks in droves Wednesday, intensifying a trend that has seen an estimated $5 billion, or about 10 percent of all household savings, taken out of the system in the last two months.

"It's like 1998 all over again," Nikolai, a travel agency manager in his mid-40s, said as he squeezed into a packed Alfa Express branch near Sokol metro station. "I don't have much money here, but I am going to cash out just to be safe."

After three bank closures in as many months -- each bigger than the last -- intervention and reassurance by the Central Bank was not enough to calm growing concerns that a full-fledged crisis was in the making....

Most experts polled shared Gafin's optimism regarding Alfa's ability to weather the storm, although the general hysteria may drag down smaller banks....

Gafin said as many as 200 of what he estimated were 1,670 banks could collapse in the coming months. "It is not bad for large banks... but for the banking system it is very harmful," he said. "People are only beginning to learn how to use banks, so with every crisis, trust in the financial system is undermined."

The main concern now is exactly what the Central Bank, as the market regulator, wants to see happen and how it will act...

"The banking crisis is like a little bushfire that could become a huge forest fire. If people lose confidence and pull out their savings, the Russian banking system could collapse," he said, rapping the Central Bank for not managing the crisis better. "That's why Western systems have crisis management systems in place."

-----(read full article at url)----

Depending on degradation of depositor confidence and on central bank action to monetize individual bank assets, the situation will ultimately resolve itself according to individual bank liquidity (see CB monetization) versus solvency (against mitigating elements of CB enforcement and/or mergers to smooth over a technical bankruptcy).

A solid gold savings plan carries with it no such uncertainties.

R.
TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 12:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122868)
R Powell on the art of picking
Darts... will keep them in mind in the event of a "next time"!

R.
TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 12:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 122869)
Fed adds... and adds, and adds.
Following yesterday's permanent addition to the nation's money supply through the outright purchase of $1.5+ billion in Treasury coupons, the Fed today continued with its liquidating ways.

Even as the market in overnight fed funds was on course with the 1.25% FOMC target, the Fed's trading desk conducted three open market interventions today totalling $23.5 billion in fresh cash for the reserves of this nation's banking system.

Nine billion was through overnight repo operations, three-and-a-half billion was via eight-day repos, and $11 billion was added through 14-day repurchase agreements.

R.
Waverider
(07/08/2004; 12:51:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122870)
Putin adviser says Russian banks in crisis
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5395753/"Russia's largest private bank acted to stop a run on deposits on Thursday as President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser said the country's banking industry was in crisis and blamed the government. Alfa-Bank imposed a 10 percent commission on depositors who want to withdraw cash early as authorities fought to prevent a run on banks and bring calm to the sector. Presidential economic adviser Andrei Illarionov made clear he disagreed with Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov who tried earlier in the day to calm fears that banks were in trouble."It is obvious that there is a banking crisis," Interfax news agency quoted Illarionov as saying."

Waverider: More on Russians rushin' to the bank....
TownCrier
(07/08/2004; 13:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122871)
The Alps
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.htmlIt's hard to find anything among these charts' peaks and valleys that doesn't presently look very very good.

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/08/2004; 14:05:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122872)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- closing market rap excerpts ---

Gold for August delivery rose $5.50 to close at $408.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it traded as high as $409.60.

"If we begin to see the short side of the market unravel along with the continued and growing buying interest in gold, we could see a $425 gold price in the offing soon," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. But for prices to push past $412, it "will likely take another serious world event," he said. [Randy wonders at the curiosity that neither he nor anyone else in the gold press is willing to cite the potential Russian banking crisis -- potentially a "serious world event" as interconnected as international banks are.]"There is no doubt ... that the last two days lay the groundwork for a significantly higher gold price, and these levels are clearly pivotal to such a move," said Kerr...

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge warned Americans Thursday that al Qaeda may try to carry out a "large-scale attack" to disrupt the upcoming elections, though the government did not raise the terror threat level. "Tom Ridge convinced everyone to get long," said a broker at a futures commission merchant...

Dollar disinvestment pushed the euro to a three-month high and buttressed gold as a safe haven.

David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets, cited relief that gold was able to hold above $400 after Wednesdays technical breakout. "The funds are becoming a little more confident as far as the upside potential in the gold," he said.

Thin summer trading conditions are exacerbating the moves... But Thursday's rally fed on itself, as speculators vied not to miss out. Oil prices rose above $40 for the first time in a month after gold closed Thursday, feeding concerns about economic slowing. "I don't know what's sparking it," said a floor broker. "Remember, just a couple of days ago gold traded down to $389."

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Federal_Reserves
(07/08/2004; 15:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122873)
Town>FED action
Greedy supply side wall street banksters have run up a 1 trillion dollar debt during the economic recovery, aiming to pump up the external economy while it rots from within allowing them to bullwhip the stock market higher, last few months insiders selling shares in record numbers. They have exhausted the consumer and put them on cliff, and loaded the US government with debt while robbing the social security fund, and saddling us with constant trade deficits. Finally, the game show is over. The FED is lathering the markets with constant coupon passes to keep things going, but lately it doesn't seem to have any punch as the stock markets fall. Russian bank panics driving gold higher. Economic fundamentals based on consumerism starting to sputter and fail.

Is your paper money safe?
Remarx
(07/08/2004; 16:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 122874)
A New American Century? Iraq and the hidden euro-dollar wars
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2003/04/20030409.php

This article is several months old and has a good deal of the same content as Clark's article, but the arguments are backed with more information and it is more persuasive. It is worth reading, IMHO. I found the reference to it in the most recent ASPONews.org article.

Also, the site seems to be a good source of progressive articles.

Cheers,
-r
Remarx
(07/08/2004; 16:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122875)
ASPONews newsletter
http://www.asponews.org/HTML/Newsletter43.htmlProbably should have posted this URL too...
Aristotle
(07/08/2004; 16:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122876)
It's the rare individual who keeps his wits, but it's an easy trick to learn
We've talked about this before. Each and every single market moves (and bucks) in such a way to throw most potential investors out of a winning position.

To take a favorite example, look at Gold. If you've been doing your homework and reading the various news and views everyone shares here, then it's probably true that you're educated enough to feel with every fiber of your being that Gold is going to go much higher. If you would just close your eyes and react to what your guts are telling you, you'd be fine.

But the market won't let you think straight, will it? Damn market. It falls steeply on one single day, right out of the clear blue sky, and you're suddenly paralyzed with fear. "Ohmigosh, it's crashing! I wouldn't dare buy any more."

Then, the very next day or so, an upsurge occurs more than double the size of the previous downdraft. "Ohmigosh, it's halfway to the moon! I missed my chance... maybe if I wait I can catch it cheaper."

Then maybe it does drift down a bit, and you play the waiting game, only to be shaken out of your buying conviction by a one-day steep drop. "Ohmigosh, it's crashing!"

Then, it powerfully rises again while you're too paralyzed to buy...

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssssssh!

Don't kick yourself. It happens to almost everybody. The way to get your legs back under you is to be keenly aware of your own convictions, and to focus more on the daily state of your wallet (cash availability) than on the daily market snapshot.

Only when you've mastered the art of being true to your guts and using that available cash accordingly and with conviction, maybe then you can risk looking at the bucking market square in the eyes without being turned to stone.

There's no good excuse for being without (more) Gold, and deep down you know it. You also know you've regretted your inactivity thus far. Stop wasting engery kicking yourself and do what you know you gotta do.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Rimh
(07/08/2004; 16:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122877)
Re: A word or 22....
Thanks for clarifying the judging process, Townie. I had little hope for my submission as I had too little time to devote to it. I read the winners submissions, though, and was impressed with their depth and clarity. Good choices in a tough field!

To the winners, a belated "Well Done"! Enjoy the 'precious'!

Rimh
Aristotle
(07/08/2004; 16:54:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122878)
A reprise
In other words, a mere *understanding* of the fundamentals doesn't do anything for you unless you take action and *DO* something about it. Look deep within and *DO* what's right for you.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Aristotle
(07/08/2004; 17:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122879)
See the world through a Gold-filtered lens
From the wide world of news:

-------------WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it had warned Madagascar to bring its inflation under control ......... Cyclones, rising oil prices and the sliding currency have incited street protests in recent months in Madagascar, the world's fourth-largest island. ......... More than 75 percent of Madagascar's 16 million population lives on less than a dollar a day, in an emerging economy struggling to withstand the series of economic shocks.------------

When our currency is taken and used our of our own context, our sense of it's value becomes all distorted. On the one hand, we might say, "A dollar a day??? That's some serious poverty!" And we'd be fairly right in that assessment. But it also needs to be recognized that a dollar overthere counts for more than a dollar overhere. (In the same way a single dollar means more to most rural western-Americans than it does to Californians who can bid up land prices willy-nilly.) To the extent that parts of the world are subsisting (poorly, yes, but still subsisting) on a "dollar" a day, we would do well to restate their "individual GDP" through a universal translator that will appear less warped for us than trying to see any recognizable meaning in our dollars used so much farther away from California.

Translated through Gold, these people are living on 1/400th of an ounce in economic activity per day. Think about that. Maybe one day soon the rest of us will perceive Gold's value as mightily.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Chris Powell
(07/08/2004; 19:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122880)
GATA adherents seize MineWeb ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2276... and proclaim market rigging by central banks.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Gandalf the White
(07/08/2004; 19:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122881)
ARE YOU ALL "looking at the happenings in the WORLD" ?
Aristotle (7/8/04; 17:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 122879)
See the world through a Gold-filtered lens
-------------WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday, it had warned Madagascar to bring its inflation under control .........
==== WOWSERS -- Madagascar is now going to bring down the WORLD ?
-------
AND the Russian people are thinking that 90% of something (because of a 10% "WITHDRAWAL Bankster Charge") is better than 100% of nothing !
---
TELL me that this could not happen AGAIN in North America ?
IT already (recently) has happened in S.E. Asia, parts of South America, and the OLD Russia.
---
WHILE you, could be holding your OWN YELLOW in you own hands, and have FULL CONTROL of your own "FUTURE" !
Like Ari asks,
GOT GOLD ?
Call USAGOLD and talk to someone about your FUTURE !
<;-)


Black Blade
(07/08/2004; 19:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122882)
"Interesting Times"

1) Yukos goes "Belly Up" - Russian Oligarchs on the run

2) Enron's Ken Lay indicted

3) US Dollar plunges again

4) Gold gains strongly

Yep, in just the last 24 hours too! "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Goldless Heathen
(07/08/2004; 20:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122883)
BB's "Interesting Times"
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/07080000aaa02466.upi&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=NATIONAL&Type=News&Filter=National%20NewsInclude also that CIA Director Tenet steped down early. His last day was originally to be July 11th the actual 7th anniversary of his tenure. But he left today instead, perhaps for a weekend of dry fly fishing. The somewhat muted, yet smoldering, IRAQ will figure big in next week's headlines.
Black Blade
(07/08/2004; 20:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122884)
@Goldless Heathen - George Tenet

Actually the CIA report on 9-11 and other matters will be released tomorrow. I suspect that to be the reason to "get outta Dodge" while he can. Of course as a Clinton appointee he also passed along the same info to Clinton as did intelligence agencies worldwide did to their leaders. The story just get more amusing all the time. But that's politics for ya. Glad I am neither conservative or liberal and can side step the "cow pies" in all the discussion. ;-)

- Black Blade

Definitely "Interesting Times".
Black Blade
(07/08/2004; 21:06:50 MDT - Msg ID: 122885)
A Side Note - Tic Toc Tic Toc

Notice that TWI Crude hit $40.01/bbl today? Inflation? Nah - of course not, not according to the BLS (They don't count "unnecessary" items like food, energy, clothing, shelter, etc. - not in the "core rate" anyway). We live on borrowed time with soaring current account and budget deficits - God forbid the Fed raises rates and pity real estate tycoons with adjustable rates, and just watch the Asians Bankers on a selling rampage of US paper debt. Get ready and get "portfolio insurance" while you can on the "cheap".

Tic Toc Tic Toc

- Black Blade

Gotta finish some work and catch some zzzzz.
canamami
(07/08/2004; 21:44:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122886)
MK - post# 122821
MK,

You make some strong points. The manipulators have been losing the past few years. The next big revaluation could be afoot, fairly soon.
Cytek
(07/08/2004; 22:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122887)
Gafin said "AS MAN
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/08/002.htmlFrom the Moscow Times
Nervous Depositors Make Run on Banks

By Denis Maternovsky
Staff Writer

Igor Tabakov / MT

People lining up Wednesday afternoon to withdraw money from one of Alfa Bank's automated teller machines on Stary Arbat.


Rumor fueled fear and fear fueled panic, sparking the biggest run on Russian banks since the 1998 crisis.

Spooked by the closure Tuesday of mid-sized Guta and reports that top-tier Alfa was on the ropes, depositors descended on banks in droves Wednesday, intensifying a trend that has seen an estimated $5 billion, or about 10 percent of all household savings, taken out of the system in the last two months.

"It's like 1998 all over again," Nikolai, a travel agency manager in his mid-40s, said as he squeezed into a packed Alfa Express branch near Sokol metro station. "I don't have much money here, but I am going to cash out just to be safe."

After three bank closures in as many months -- each bigger than the last -- intervention and reassurance by the Central Bank was not enough to calm growing concerns that a full-fledged crisis was in the making.

Hit hardest of all was Alfa, the nation's largest private bank.

"We have never had so many people here," said a security guard at Alfa's Sokol branch. "There were lines already when we opened the bank in the morning."

A letter signed by Alfa Bank CEO Rushan Khvesyuk and posted on the front door of Alfa branches throughout the city accused the media of spreading "erroneous information" about Alfa's operations and told depositors that the bank would meet all its obligations to clients.

That letter was followed by one from Mikhail Fridman, the main owner of Alfa Group, Alfa Bank's parent company. It said Alfa's owners were ready to provide their assets outside of the banking industry to back the bank's efforts to meet demands from clients. The letter, published on the company's web site, was co-signed by Alfa Group's president Pyotr Aven and its CEO Petr Smida.

"The nervousness on the market will be overcome in the nearest future," the three said in the statement. "We're sure it won't damage Alfa Bank's clients or the bank itself."

An NTV report Tuesday evening on Guta's troubles was just the latest in a series of unsourced media reports suggesting Alfa will be the next to fall.

The bank held $1.1 billion in personal deposits at the end of March, the last month for which data was available, but a senior bank official said early Wednesday that it had lost at least $100 million in deposits since Saturday. "This is 10 times the normal amount," vice president Alexander Gafin told a conference on integrating Russia into the world economy.

By midday Wednesday, the waiting list to close an account at Alfa's Arbat branch was already up to 75.

In a speech to the State Duma, Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev tried to ease the fears of Alfa customers, saying the bank "did not have any problems [with liquidity]."

"The bank has enough resources to satisfy depositors' demands," he said.

As far as Guta is concerned, Ignatyev told the Duma that the Central Bank was ready to essentially fund the nationalization of Guta by backing a buyout bid by state-owned Vneshtorgbank, the country's second largest financial institution by assets.

Guta issued a press release saying the deal had already been signed, but Vneshtorgbank refuted that, saying acquisition talks should be over by the "end of the week."

Ignatyev also refuted persistent media reports that the government has a so-called blacklist of banks that are targeted for closure. The reports, denied repeatedly by senior government officials, first surfaced after the Central Bank revoked the license of second-tier bank Sodbiznesbank in May. CreditTrust, a bank that reportedly has the same beneficial owners as Sodbiznes, collapsed in June.

Reports of the blacklist and the actual failure of several banks has created a "crisis of mistrust," as bankers are calling it, that has led to banks closing credit lines to each other, further squeezing liquidity out of the sector.

To jump-start the system, the Central Bank on Wednesday -- for the second time in a month -- slashed mandatory reserve requirements, to 3.5 percent from 7 percent. The bank cut the rate from 9 percent to 7 percent June 15.

Some analysts doubted the move would be enough to calm the market.

Although halving the reserve requirement injected some 125 billion rubles ($4.3 billion) into the system, it is unlikely to help banks facing a run on deposits, said Mikhail Matovnikov of Moody's Interfax Rating Agency.

Gafin, Alfa's vice president, refuted that notion. "There won't be any crisis for us. We have $3 billion from the TNK-BP deal and therefore the liquidity problem is nonexistent," he said.

Gafin said an enemy in the telecommunications sector was to blame for Alfa's troubles.

"Alfa has fallen victim to a well-prepared campaign aiming to discredit its name. We know who did it. The story stems from the telecommunication market," he said, without elaborating.

Alfa Group owns a stake in No. 2 cellular provider VimpelCom and is locked in a legal battle with Telecominvest, a Kremlin-connected company based in St. Petersburg, for a large stake in No. 3 provider MegaFon.

Most experts polled shared Gafin's optimism regarding Alfa's ability to weather the storm, although the general hysteria may drag down smaller banks.

"A lot of smaller banks will experience a lot of problems," said Andrew Keeley of Renaissance Capital.

Gafin said as many as 200 of what he estimated were 1,670 banks could collapse in the coming months. "It is not bad for large banks... but for the banking system it is very harmful," he said. "People are only beginning to learn how to use banks, so with every crisis, trust in the financial system is undermined."

Matovnikov agreed that smaller banks are in danger, but he said a full-fledged crisis was unlikely, even though the "depositors' run" is likely to last for several more days.

The main concern now is exactly what the Central Bank, as the market regulator, wants to see happen and how it will act, said Hans Jorg Rudloff, deputy chairman of British investment banking giant Barclays Capital.

Rudloff, a major player in Russia's early privatization drive, said a banking crisis would "be more worrying than the Yukos crisis."

"The banking crisis is like a little bushfire that could become a huge forest fire. If people lose confidence and pull out their savings, the Russian banking system could collapse," he said, rapping the Central Bank for not managing the crisis better. "That's why Western systems have crisis management systems in place."


Cytek
(07/08/2004; 22:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 122888)
Gafin said "AS MANY AS 200 BANKS COULD COLLAPSE
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/08/002.htmlFrom the Moscow Times
Nervous Depositors Make Run on Banks

By Denis Maternovsky
Staff Writer

Igor Tabakov / MT

People lining up Wednesday afternoon to withdraw money from one of Alfa Bank's automated teller machines on Stary Arbat.


Rumor fueled fear and fear fueled panic, sparking the biggest run on Russian banks since the 1998 crisis.

Spooked by the closure Tuesday of mid-sized Guta and reports that top-tier Alfa was on the ropes, depositors descended on banks in droves Wednesday, intensifying a trend that has seen an estimated $5 billion, or about 10 percent of all household savings, taken out of the system in the last two months.

"It's like 1998 all over again," Nikolai, a travel agency manager in his mid-40s, said as he squeezed into a packed Alfa Express branch near Sokol metro station. "I don't have much money here, but I am going to cash out just to be safe."

After three bank closures in as many months -- each bigger than the last -- intervention and reassurance by the Central Bank was not enough to calm growing concerns that a full-fledged crisis was in the making.

Hit hardest of all was Alfa, the nation's largest private bank.

"We have never had so many people here," said a security guard at Alfa's Sokol branch. "There were lines already when we opened the bank in the morning."

A letter signed by Alfa Bank CEO Rushan Khvesyuk and posted on the front door of Alfa branches throughout the city accused the media of spreading "erroneous information" about Alfa's operations and told depositors that the bank would meet all its obligations to clients.

That letter was followed by one from Mikhail Fridman, the main owner of Alfa Group, Alfa Bank's parent company. It said Alfa's owners were ready to provide their assets outside of the banking industry to back the bank's efforts to meet demands from clients. The letter, published on the company's web site, was co-signed by Alfa Group's president Pyotr Aven and its CEO Petr Smida.

"The nervousness on the market will be overcome in the nearest future," the three said in the statement. "We're sure it won't damage Alfa Bank's clients or the bank itself."

An NTV report Tuesday evening on Guta's troubles was just the latest in a series of unsourced media reports suggesting Alfa will be the next to fall.

The bank held $1.1 billion in personal deposits at the end of March, the last month for which data was available, but a senior bank official said early Wednesday that it had lost at least $100 million in deposits since Saturday. "This is 10 times the normal amount," vice president Alexander Gafin told a conference on integrating Russia into the world economy.

By midday Wednesday, the waiting list to close an account at Alfa's Arbat branch was already up to 75.

In a speech to the State Duma, Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev tried to ease the fears of Alfa customers, saying the bank "did not have any problems [with liquidity]."

"The bank has enough resources to satisfy depositors' demands," he said.

As far as Guta is concerned, Ignatyev told the Duma that the Central Bank was ready to essentially fund the nationalization of Guta by backing a buyout bid by state-owned Vneshtorgbank, the country's second largest financial institution by assets.

Guta issued a press release saying the deal had already been signed, but Vneshtorgbank refuted that, saying acquisition talks should be over by the "end of the week."

Ignatyev also refuted persistent media reports that the government has a so-called blacklist of banks that are targeted for closure. The reports, denied repeatedly by senior government officials, first surfaced after the Central Bank revoked the license of second-tier bank Sodbiznesbank in May. CreditTrust, a bank that reportedly has the same beneficial owners as Sodbiznes, collapsed in June.

Reports of the blacklist and the actual failure of several banks has created a "crisis of mistrust," as bankers are calling it, that has led to banks closing credit lines to each other, further squeezing liquidity out of the sector.

To jump-start the system, the Central Bank on Wednesday -- for the second time in a month -- slashed mandatory reserve requirements, to 3.5 percent from 7 percent. The bank cut the rate from 9 percent to 7 percent June 15.

Some analysts doubted the move would be enough to calm the market.

Although halving the reserve requirement injected some 125 billion rubles ($4.3 billion) into the system, it is unlikely to help banks facing a run on deposits, said Mikhail Matovnikov of Moody's Interfax Rating Agency.

Gafin, Alfa's vice president, refuted that notion. "There won't be any crisis for us. We have $3 billion from the TNK-BP deal and therefore the liquidity problem is nonexistent," he said.

Gafin said an enemy in the telecommunications sector was to blame for Alfa's troubles.

"Alfa has fallen victim to a well-prepared campaign aiming to discredit its name. We know who did it. The story stems from the telecommunication market," he said, without elaborating.

Alfa Group owns a stake in No. 2 cellular provider VimpelCom and is locked in a legal battle with Telecominvest, a Kremlin-connected company based in St. Petersburg, for a large stake in No. 3 provider MegaFon.

Most experts polled shared Gafin's optimism regarding Alfa's ability to weather the storm, although the general hysteria may drag down smaller banks.

"A lot of smaller banks will experience a lot of problems," said Andrew Keeley of Renaissance Capital.

Gafin said as many as 200 of what he estimated were 1,670 banks could collapse in the coming months. "It is not bad for large banks... but for the banking system it is very harmful," he said. "People are only beginning to learn how to use banks, so with every crisis, trust in the financial system is undermined."

Matovnikov agreed that smaller banks are in danger, but he said a full-fledged crisis was unlikely, even though the "depositors' run" is likely to last for several more days.

The main concern now is exactly what the Central Bank, as the market regulator, wants to see happen and how it will act, said Hans Jorg Rudloff, deputy chairman of British investment banking giant Barclays Capital.

Rudloff, a major player in Russia's early privatization drive, said a banking crisis would "be more worrying than the Yukos crisis."

"The banking crisis is like a little bushfire that could become a huge forest fire. If people lose confidence and pull out their savings, the Russian banking system could collapse," he said, rapping the Central Bank for not managing the crisis better. "That's why Western systems have crisis management systems in place."


Cytek
(07/08/2004; 22:57:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122889)
Whoops, slipped on the keyboard
Posted the article twice. Maybe we better read it twice to see what's about to happen.

Cytek
makcumka
(07/08/2004; 23:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122890)
My Conspiracy Theory
The events of last couple of weeks, overlaid on the events occurred over last year or so, point, IMVHO, to a possible move by a Russian Central Bank to introduce gold-backed rouble (as suggested by Sir GAB in his post #122594, 06/27/04). Consider the information available:

1. Russian Central Bank diversifying away from $-reserves (Russia to increase Euro reserves, http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/031022102329.t49utq6z).

2. Russian Central Bank increasing Euro and gold reserves beyond expectations (Russia's gold and currency reserves soar, http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_186056.php). The article does say that the Russian Central Bank "did not expect it would have to buy up more dollars than planned to prevent a sharp strengthening in the ruble rate". If you consider the gold chart for the time period referenced in the article (Nov-Dec 2003), as well as the EUR/USD chart for the same period of time, the dollar was falling in relationship to Euro and gold. It is hard to believe that a Russian CB would continue to purchase a currency which has declined approximately 8% against both gold and Euro in a period of two months (using round figures), and still experience a 15% increase in its reserves over the same period of time.

3. Iran, a country closely associated with Russia, is planning to open an alternative to London's oil exchange, http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/18/1087245103758.html?from=storyrhs. A possible link to trading oil for gold dinars instead of dollars? Also, from Sir GAB's #122594, Russian weapons supplied to Iran and Syria, as well as Russian-built nuclear reactor in Iran may suggest that Iran has Russia's backing in openly opposing London (and US) interest in oil trade.

4. I just got back from Russia, spending about 2 weeks in Moscow. One of the central topics of discussion in the mass media was the convertibility of a rouble. Russian government seemed to spend a lot of energy to achieve the stability of the national currency. Unfortunately, being linked to the Euro and the dollar, rouble fluctuated daily, depending on the exchange rate of these two currencies, rather than the economic situation in the country. One could argue that if Russian government wanted to achieve a secure currency, it would seek to break rouble's dependency on the EUR/USD exchange rate

5. A few days ago, Russian government froze the assets of the largest oil conglomerate in the country, forcing the company into bankruptcy and forcing several major Russian and foreign banks to declare Yukos in default on its $1 bil loans (07/05/04, Sir GAB, post #122770 and Sir Goldendome, post #122771). Also, several Russian banks were affected by this development, as indicated by numerous posts over the last couple of days. Russian government proposed a deal for Yukos� largest shareholder, Group Menatep, to give up its interest in the company. Apparently, Kremlin is serious about the possible bankruptcy of the company, because Khodorkovsky is ready to talk http://www.gazeta.ru/2004/07/07/oa_126315.shtml. Personally, I doubt that Kremlin will stop at this time, as it seeks control over a critical commodity � oil.

6. Moscow is in a middle of a serious banking crisis. Russian economy is very specific, as the majority of business capital is centralized in Moscow's banks, and a panic in the city can cripple the economy of the whole country. The difference between Moscow and the rest of the country is drastic. As Lady Waverider posted today in her #122870, Putin (through his advisor) announced that the banking industry is indeed in crisis, despite of what the Prime Minister said. Coupled with Moody's reported intention to downgrade of securities issued by Russian banks (source in Russian only, no translation available) and lowering of the required reserves by 50% (Sir Federal_Reserve, post #122823), all occurring on the same day, 07/07/04, it is clear that Putin is not interested in protecting the private banking industry in Russia. There were also reports in Russian press (source in Russian only, no translation available) that two government-owned banks declined to grant loans to both Guta-bank and Alpha-bank to aid in resolution of the crisis, which further supports this fact.

7. Finally, if one would consider Putin's encouragement (or so it seems) of the banking crisis, lead by privately-held banks, official support of Iran's oil trade initiative and weapons trade with this country, securing of Russia's oil reserves, and opposition to US-lead military action in Iraq, one must think: what is the goal of these actions? Since becoming president, Putin was trying to reestablish Russia's role as a major world player. I believe that by distancing himself from US, securing oil reserves, amassing Euro and gold reserves, allowing private banking to collapse, thus ensuring currency controlled by the government-held banks, and reestablishing once-lost military influence outside of former Soviet bloc, Putin is positioning his country for the last step � announcing gold-backing of the rouble, thus achieving convertibility of the national currency, equal to the only dollar alternative (Euro) available.

Thoughts?
Steve22
(07/08/2004; 23:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122891)
gold contest
SunDude,
I submitted my essay on time and was given the go ahead from a moderator on one resubmission

for an edit.

Goldendome,

I appreciate the encouragement.

Gold's price is a function of its gold paper price right now, a slow news day means as

little as a fast news day for gold $ price. That is, until things really get moving. Right

now, we wait. Is this explanation more to your liking length wise? Do you really feel like

you understand it, or does it sound like I am just making semi-educated claims?

Heathen,
I am not sure how well my would fare on a commercial basis. It might find the odd person

who grasps it, but, as Towncrier says, it may be a bit long in the tooth for most.

Nevertheless, I would be very interested to hear which sites you think might be interested?

TownCrier,
Thank you for the explanation of the judging procedures. Sometimes even when I am sure of

something the dice rolls against. I'm sorry for bringing up a seemingly juvenile claim. As

my brother has been heard to say, "Why don't you cry about it?"

Sigh,

Steve "22"
Sundeck
(07/09/2004; 00:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122892)
makcumka #122980 - Russian Ruble Gold Backing
An additional factor that you might consider is the recent purchase by Russian companies of South African gold production (I have forgotten the companies involved).

Also, I understand that Russia has very large gold resources, identified during the Soviet era and awaiting development.

Interesting...

:-)
Ag Mountain
(07/09/2004; 01:42:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122893)
@Sundeck
How do you define gold backing for rubles? Do you make distinctions from gold convertibility? TIA.
Caradoc
(07/09/2004; 02:49:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122894)
Ari: "less than a dollar a day...."
Ari: Thank you for the view through your "gold-filtered lens."

When listening to my California neighbors talk about how their house has been going up in value by $150 per day and swapping stories about particular houses going for more than asking price, I consciously remind myself that it's price, not "value," that has been going up. And I know that few if any of these folks will see any benefit from these paper increases. Despite this attampt at staying grounded in realism, I find my pain threshold as to what number constitutes a high price for a particular item being continually skewed upward. It's refreshing to be reminded that elsewhere people are living their lives on less than a dollar per day.

Thanks to your gold-filtered lens, translating this level of economic activity into 1/400th of an ounce brings me all the way back to reality. With slightly less than an ounce of gold per person on this planet divided by 365 days per year, it's automatic that a subsistance economy works out to a daily figure of less than 1/365th of an ounce per person.

So, in terms of BTUs, one manpower equals 1/400th of an ounce. Whatever fraction of humanity manages to live at a higher level does so by adding BTUs to the equation whether those BTUs come from a donkey walking in a circle, from a waterwheel tapping the energy of a river, or from a bank of solar panels. Small wonder that the (largely coal-fired) steam engine of the Industrial Revolution added enough BTUs to raise living standards while allowing population to increase. More recently, those extra life-enhancing BTUs have come from oil. True, the first oil well was in Pennsylvania, but I suspect that Pennsylvanians saw "peak oil" within 5 or 10 years and the fact that oil now comes from elsewhere says that, just like Japanese and most Europeans, Pennsylvanians will see their quality of life determined by the flow of oil and its price. Which doesn't bode well for quality of life....

I've forgotten the horsepower/manpower ratio (11:1? 20:1?), but there's no doubt that being able to fill up your tank for less than $50 (excuse me, less than 1/8th of an ounce) and spend all day controlling 400 horsepower still qualifies as "cheap oil."

Before coming to this Table, I intuitively (and naively) thought that the proper price for gold would approximate $3,640. Today -- after benefitting from both new posts and the archives -- I realize that the number doesn't matter. Just as a house provides the same value (shelter) no matter how it's priced this week, an ounce of gold remains constant whether it's priced at 364 or 3,640 or 36,400 or 364,000 paper dollars. As the world comes to view things through Ari's gold-filtered lens, the forces of competition will cause a skilled worker's annual wage to approximate one ounce of real wealth. Those without skills who bring nothing to the bargaining table but the one manpower they woke up with this morning will find that their services price out at substantially less.

Useful item, this gold-filtered lens. Ari, thank you!

Caradoc




Ned
(07/09/2004; 04:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122895)
After being 404/406 rangebound all night.........
.....just got our London morning pop.....407.90!

Yaahhhooooo!

Bet we see $500 today!
Sundeck
(07/09/2004; 04:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122896)
Ag Mountain #122893 Gold Backing for Ruble
Sir Ag Mountain

You asked:

"How do you define gold backing for rubles? Do you make distinctions from gold convertibility? TIA."


Perhaps your question is better addressed to Sir makcumka...I was just adding a couple of factors that were not mentioned in makcumka's post #122890... I thought the points raised were interesting; events coming, as they do, together...they may or may not be part of a larger single game plan unfolding in Russia...

...but to answer your question, to my mind, "backing" and "convertibility" may be either identical or different, depending on how they are defined. "Convertibility" is probably a straight-forward concept - x rubles per ounce of gold; like the US dollar was supposed to be (at least for foreigners) before Nixon. On the other hand the term "backing" may easily take on a variety of meanings from being identical to "convertibility" through notions such as that raised by Sinclair, a year or two ago, where gold is somehow linked to M3...I really don't know what possibilities exist for "backing" a currency with gold...

Not wishing to fob you off, but others here may have more to offer on the subject. There has been lots of discussion on this forum over the years on the subject as well...

Cheers

:-)
misetich
(07/09/2004; 05:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122897)
CHINA ECONOMIC NEWS
Its worthwhile to follow economic data from China in lieu of its important impact on global economies on Rising Unhidable Price Inflation through commodities


Headline Snips:

China car sales slip after credit squeeze
By Richard McGregor in Shanghai
Published: July 8 2004 19:31 | Last Updated: July 8 2004 19:31


The rate of increase in China's car sales slowed dramatically in June, sending the market into potentially more perilous territory for the local and multinational manufacturers that have recently committed more than $10bn to new capacity in the country.
........................

China's factory output growth slows to 16.2%

BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Growth in China's industrial output slowed as expected in the year through June to 16.2 percent from 17.5 percent a month earlier, extending a moderating trend as government measures to cool the economy take effect.

Factory output in June had been expected to rise 16.5 percent from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of five economists.

Industrial production from January to June was 17.7 percent higher than a year earlier, the State Statistical Bureau said in a statement on Friday.
......................
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373605394&p=1045050946495

Power shortage: 6,400 factories to go off-line

BEIJING, July.9(Xinhuanet) -- Due to summer's unquenchable power thirst, about 6,400 industrial enterprises in and around Beijing will be shut down for a week.

Starting from Thursday, the plants -- mostly State-owned industries that have an eight-hour working day -- will be shut down and come back online according to a staggered programme. The policy will run until the end of next month.
........................
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/09/content_1585437.htm

Central bank not to loosen control on loans: governor

SHANGHAI, July 9 (Xinhuanet) -- China's central bank will not loosen control over loan extension despite complaints from local businesses about cash flow problems, according to Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China.

"We will not slacken restrictions on loan extension, though commercial banks have reported a slightly smaller number of non-performing loans," Zhou said at the China International Conferencein Finance 2004 held in the eastern commercial hub Shanghai.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/09/content_1587534.htm

Cooling measures taking effect

BEIJING, July 9 (Xinhuanet) -- Editor's Note: China's rapidly-growing economy showed significant signs of change in May, which has increased confidence that the State's macroeconomic measures to slow growth are working. The State Information Centre examined key economic indicators in a recent research report, and provided policy recommendations for the future. Following are excerpts from the report. Friday's China Daily said.
.....................
1. Fixed investment growth subsided, but continued in the fast lane
2. Retail sales growth accelerated, but stayed at safe levels
3. Imports slowed down impressively, while this year's first single-month trade surplus was recorded
4. Lending growth slackened slightly
5. Money supply growth came down marginally, returning to safe levels
6. Prices accelerated, but remained in a safe range
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/09/content_1586221.htm
****************
Misetich

Most experts expect a hard China economic landing - though very few of them had predicted China's rapid econonic rise-

The brakes being applied to slowdown its torrid pace appear to be working - though factories are humming as witnessed by the power supply shortage

China is devauring commodities and energy and its thirst is not easily quenched thus it can be expected for PRICE INFLATION TO CONTINUE RISING GLOBALLY

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/09/2004; 05:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 122898)
The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe....its just the beginning
http://www.tomdispatch.com/Snips:

Among the early goals of the Bush administration, controlling global energy flows was certainly right at the top of the list; so imagine the irony (not that Bush's men are much into irony) -- this administration might, in part, be sunk by soaring domestic gas prices.
.......................
The U.S. hasn't even been able to stop the escalating attacks on and sabotage of Iraq's oil pipelines -- now practically an everyday event. In the meantime, the threat to oil supplies has been seeping across the border into Saudi Arabia. Oil prices, which had dipped from recent highs, are again inching up toward the $40 a barrel mark. Throw in chaos in Russia's oil industry; stir in a Middle East guaranteed to be ever more in turmoil (just wait until the first Saudi oil facility goes up in flames), add in the skyrocketing global desire for ever more oil, and you're beginning to deal with the realities of a business which could provide a distinct October surprise for the Bush administration and many more surprises in future years for the rest of us. Only yesterday, according to the British Financial Times, "Strong global demand for oil, limited supply increases and continuing security fears led the US government� to raise its central price forecast for US crude over the next 18 months to $37 a barrel� As recently as April it forecast crude falling below $30."
***************
Misetich

Marshall Auerback, an international money manager, wrote the above passage and he's been right on the money, though BLACKBLADE deserves KUDOS for his visionary alerts, way before

Readers may also find the below link of interest
http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=1458
The View from Hubbert's Peak

Perhaps it is. As Venezuela's energy minister Rafael Ramirez told the Financial Times on May 24, "The history of cheap oil may have ended."

Oil and Gold Prices rising beyond expectations

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Toolie
(07/09/2004; 06:53:25 MDT - Msg ID: 122899)
Gold Dinar?
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/21256.aspSnip: During his meeting with President Pervez Musharaff, Mr Goh urged Pakistan to work towards what he described as a gold standard Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. (end snip)

Does this mean what it sounds like or, is it poorly chosen words? Last year Pakistan entered into the Gold Dinar regime with Malaysia. Perhaps Singapore is next.
mikal
(07/09/2004; 07:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122900)
Dollar days
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=2908448Economist.com - The dollar
Keep An Eye On It
July 8, 2004

Snip: "And if they do not buy the buck, who will?"
Buongiorno!
(07/09/2004; 08:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 122901)
backing and convertability

@Sundeck and Makcumka, concur with your points that these two may mean about the same. Also "backing" may mean that a certain % of M-1 is "backing" currency issued. Heard the Euro is set up in this way. Others? Backing also could mean "way back" backing--as in "deep storage" reserves at Fort Knox and other undisclosed locations?
Could also mean "virtual gold backing" using derivitive receipts from options trades deposited in "deep storage". How about holographic 3-d projections of gold "backing bars" displayed in a public park? Aaah! Shades of meaning, meaning that when the boys start slicing the baloney for us--they can slice it as thin as they wish--sorta reminds one of discussions over what the meaning of "is", is.
My shiny gold coins do not have to worry about such shadings. They are both "convertable" and "backed"!

Chin-chin....ting!
Buongiorno!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/09/2004; 09:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122902)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. What is the best approach for the safe-haven investor?

MK. If you want to protect yourself against inflation, deflation, stock market weakness and potential currency problems -- in other words, if an economic disaster is your concern, there is only one portfolio item that will serve you in all seasons and under most circumstances -- gold coins or bullion.

Q. In recent years, we have seen a large number of gold dealers proliferate on the internet. What do you have to say about that?

MK. The internet offers an interesting challenge for the gold buyer. Fly-by-night firms are as big a problem in the gold business as they are in other areas of the investment business. One major problem at the moment are all the one-man-do-it-from-your-basement internet operations that have cropped up in the last few years. How does one know that the individual with whom you are dealing in these situations is legit? We've even heard of instances where some of these people actually have criminal records or have had past problems with regulatory authorities -- like the Federal Trade Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, what does it take to go on-line with a website? Anyone can do it. It's up to the consumer to do their due-diligence before doing business with these operations.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

Knallgold
(07/09/2004; 09:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122903)
GE
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040709/4bd74dee190fd02958c23b9b149422d8_1.html"..Among the day's advancers, General Electric was up 29 cents at $31.99 after reporting a 3 percent rise in earnings, beating Wall Street's expectations by a penny a share.."

Beaten by a penny?This Wall Street nonsense is increasingly embarassing...

From the link above:
"Gold futures prices traded narrowly lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with some traders rethinking their positions after a more than $15-an-ounce climb in the past two sessions.

Gold "still has some hurdles to clear, but the momentum is strong and getting stronger," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International."

A more than 15$ climb?Wow,I knew the sky was the limit...
Goldless Heathen
(07/09/2004; 10:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 122904)
Alan's Early Musings?
http://www.howestreet.com/story.php?ArticleId=492From below; ". . . can create out of thin air and in that way, rob their subjects. We have all been well indoctrinated not to understand that fact, but that is exactly what the ruling elite in all countries do to their citizens these days. Alan Greenspan said as much in his 1966 essay, "Gold & Economic Freedom."

Anyone read this essay or know where it might be found online?

TownCrier
(07/09/2004; 10:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122905)
Goldless Heathen looking for Greenspan's "Gold and Economic Freedom"
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNewcomers requesting an introductory information packet from USAGOLD~Centennial are shortly thereafter offered a complementary hardcopy selection (of your choice) from among several informative articles, this piece being among them.

Established clients, of course, have access to this and a great realm more, just a phone call away. 1--800-869-5115

R.
Goldless Heathen
(07/09/2004; 11:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122906)
@TownCrier re:alan's essay
Thanks,TC,will call-I should have guessed you would have it.
omegaman
(07/09/2004; 13:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122909)
Re: Alan's Essay "Gold and Economic Freedom"
You can also find a hard copy in Ayn Rand's book "Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal," just for your info. Also, a lot more on the subject.
Aristotle
(07/09/2004; 13:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122910)
Money -- "backing" and convertibility
I'll take a random stab at it.

Convertibility in a strict monetary sense refers to what you can expect to receive according to the official structure of the monetary system when you execute a withdrawal from your bank account. Convertibility most immediately refers to the state of the circulating pocketable currency into which your monetary units of account on the bank's ledger are transferred/translated for hand to hand use/representation. Typically, national monies are convertible into elaborately printed notes and iconic coins, the design of which have been dictated by some coordinated process of the federal government and its central bank.

When you hear talk of 'convertible currencies,' it's usually in reference to a nation's money being tradable on the world's foreign exchange markets for any other 'convertible currency,' meaning, the central bank isn't officially maintaining an iron grip of control on its sphere of circulation and exchange rate.

It stands to reason that money being 'held' in account on the bank's books should, by nature, *NOT* necessarily undergo any SIGNIFICANT change in its monetary character or worth upon simply being withdrawn from the bank as portable cash. And by the same token, it should *NOT* necessarily undergo any inherent transformation in monetary character or quality upon being deposited into a bank. That's all a long way of saying that a banking system's money and its circulating currency need be intrinsically comprised of the same fundamental makeup or rather essence. If one form were superior/inferior to the other it would not be for long that they could/would function in tandem (the inferior would ever be traded to exhaustion for the superior,) to the undoing of "convertibility" as a meaningful enterprise.

With that in mind, we can see why a Gold Standard, defined by convertibility between bank ledgers and Gold currency, is ever an exercise in inevitable failure. As currency, a coin-shaped quantity of Gold in hand is most definitely *NOT* intrinsically comprised of the same fundamental "essence" which we find inherent in the list of numbers on a banker's ledger of accounts. In this Gold Standard case, there certainly IS a most obvious and troubling inherent transformation undergone via the process of depositing currency (a solid Gold coin in this case) into a bank ledger -- an accounting of formless numerical obligations/credits.

As a result of the fragile (non)sustainability of Gold Standard-style convertibility, we quite naturally have evolved into the fiat-style currency convertibility system we see in use today.

The true essence of money which populates our world banking systems is certainly not "backed" by its currency. Again, a currency is at best just a version of your same bank money in a form that's suitable for travel -- recognizable as money and not easily counterfeited. To better make my point, we could in fact do away with fiat currency entirely and rely solely on checks or electronic bank cards. That fact alone should convey amply that the essence of money is *NOT* truly "backed" by *ANY* manner of convertible currency, regardless of whether it be inherently Real or merely fiat representational.

Money finds its "backing" in the Rule of Law that governs the society of the land. Insofar as that goes, we must admit that it can be a pretty shabby backing at best -- subject to the caprice of the sociopolitical process under the realities of human nature up against hard circumstances.

Whereas the depreciation of money provides the scapegoat or the relief valve within the comprehensive network of social contracts, it can't be counted upon to serve you as meaningful savings through times of social difficulty and transition. Money serves us as a utility, only. It is not wealth. Now here's the good news: as a utility, it can be used (spent) to secure for yourself tangible property to store away as meaningful savings to convey your wealth forward through time in the face of the ever-depreciating fate of your nation's monetary utility of dollars, pesos, rubles, etc.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
specie-man
(07/09/2004; 13:45:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122911)
Monex
I had a bad experience with Monex.

A few years ago, I had some Credit Suisse 1-oz palladium bars (still sealed in their original "ingot card" packaging). Palladium was relatively high (~380) and gold was relatively low (~300). I called to see about a swap (palladium bars for gold eagles). The "broker" I talked to quoted about $364 on the bars and about $312 on the eagles (as I remember).

The deal was agreed upon and I mailed the bars. After the bars arrived, they called and said that the bars were only worth about $300.

Over the protests of the "broker", I demanded immediate return of the palladium bars. I did get them back, but I was out the initial shipping cost.

Jerks.
contrarian
(07/09/2004; 13:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122912)
monex
I talked to a broker there some time back, and decided against giving him my business. There was something I didn't trust in his tone of voice--it reeked of a boiler room.

Also, as you can imagine, he tried to steer me into more exotic investments, such as palladium.

In addition, they were more expensive. They tacked on a lot of extra fees.
TownCrier
(07/09/2004; 14:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122914)
Hello soldiers...
The potential is certainly there for this to spiral out of control as there is ample fuel for the fire according to just the few of the war-stories that I am personally aware of.

However, before this goess any further, one of the posting guidelines for this Forum is a prohibition of derogation of the competitors of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. First and most practically, it calls unnecessary attention to them as a form of free advertising (even if it isn't very flattering). Second, it takes us down to their level if we publically participate as mudslingers against their transgressions. (However, please do feel free to discuss it privately by phone with one of USAGOLD~Centennial's brokers -- you'll know instantly you're in good company with a sympathetic ear and professional treatment.)

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/09/2004; 15:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 122915)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- Daily rap (excerpts) ----

Gold, Silver Cement Recent Gains

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange put in a consolidatory performance Friday and held just below recent, nearly three-month highs in steady two-way action throughout. The most-active Aug contract settled 30 cents lower at $407.90 per ounce.

...given the fact that Aug gold prices have risen from a low of $389 to a nearly three-month high of $409.60 within the past four trading days, good levels of profit taking were expected and seen before the weekend. As a result, gold's mainly sideways showing so far Friday surprised few.

...sources agreed that should prices fail to sustain their recent upside momentum in the days ahead they stand the chance of sagging on increased profit taking.

However, market watchers also agreed that gold's recent sturdy performance has impressed many fund players who will likely view any near-term price pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than signs that strength is unsustainable.

"It's looked pretty good lately so it's probably more attractive now to the funds," said a floor dealer with a large U.S. commission house...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Boilermaker
(07/09/2004; 16:42:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122916)
Russian Resource Companies- Yukos as example
http://www.mineweb.net/columns/emerging_russia/333578.htmThis article was published at Mineweb.com 2 days ago and I didn't see posted here but it's required reading for all who wish to get an understanding of what's happening to Russia's resource prooducers.

snip;
What is more than novel about the new lawsuit is that it threatens to put an end to all attempts by the Russian oligarchs to cash out of their vulnerable Russian assets into UK or US-registered securities, and launder the proceeds of their Russian crimes into ostensibly clean western bank accounts, real estate, and other forms of wealth. For as everyone knows, the massive tax evasion that was practiced at Yukos has been the standard operating procedure for the building of all the Russian oil, mineral, metal and mining fortunes that have been amassed by the likes of Roman Abramovich, Oleg Deripaska, Vladimir Potanin, Victor Vekselberg, and Mikhail Fridman.
Sundeck
(07/09/2004; 17:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122917)
Aristotle #122910 - "Convertibility" and "backing"
Good one, Sir Aristotle...

Would it therefore be fair to say (summarise?) that government-mandated "convertibility" of one's "money" (be it represented by electronic or hand-written digits in a ledger, pretty pieces of paper or iconic coins)into a universally-accepted form of "wealth", such as gold (or perhaps other "things) is a sound way to "back" the money of the realm?

Gold "conversion" is perhaps the most universal and long-lasting form of "backing" for good reasons. Unfortunately (as you alude to) for it to work over time requires a degree of discipline within society at large (and the political and financial elites, in particular) that runs counter to collective human nature. Thus "money" expands faster than "wealth" - in all its representations - with the familiar consequences.

Hence we see the role of gold (and perhaps some other "things") as a preserve of wealth.

Cheers

:-)

Dollar Bill
(07/09/2004; 20:13:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122918)
.,.
Makumka, the Russian situation is interesting.
glad you guys are talking about it.

My guess is that Russia under Putin will be like Japan.
By that I mean, they will play this chess game WITH the US as quiet partner. Not in opposition.
On the surface, Japan looks like a selfinterested country.
But its real actions make it look like it is the 51st state to me.

Putin has been wearing a christian item around his neck without taking it off since his mom gave it to him well over 10 years ago. I do believe Bush and Putin have had --christian boy-- chats at the ranch in Texas.
Notice that the day after the so called 911 commission came out with a report and the usmedia bannered one sentence implying there was no link between alkida and saddam, Putin lets loose with a bombshell that Russia had warned the US repeatedly about saddams plans to strike the US. Plans told to Russian workers in Iraq.
I would appear that france and germany didnt know Putin told the US way back when, and to me it is one more sign that Putin, while in the midst of his countrymen with all thier factions and desires, Putin is playing a deep game and he is teamed with the US. Actually against the EU and his own countrymen who are against the US.

What plus was there for him if Saddam became the real power of the world? Just because french and german politicians cared in a short sighted way for thier own euro as reserve currency goal, didnt mean it wasnt damn foolish to have saddam as thier key partner in making it happen.

Putin has to contend with muslim issues of his own, and, when faced with the US "us or them" situation, he HAD to decide "US". It was in his countries self interest!!
The US didnt attack Russia ever. Germany and France both have. With muslims below, and the eu teamed with saddam as the new reserve currency power, the us defeated by terrorist actions of saddam and alkida, the future would have been bleak for russia.
Leftists would never see the positives of the US policies, but there are some. And some of them are KEY policies that mean something to other key figures in other countries.

Probably, the globalist structure the US is holding out as a carrot, a structure no one is able to see at our level, but MUST exist. A plan for the future that has enough merit for all that Japan, China, Russia and Saudis are on the US side. Or so it appears to me.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/09/2004; 21:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122919)
Always Open!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Goldless Heathen
(07/09/2004; 21:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122920)
Forbes editor shot dead in Russia
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/07090000aaa011f5.upi&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=NATIONAL&Type=News&Filter=National%20NewsRIP
Goldendome
(07/10/2004; 00:32:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122921)
The course of a democracy
The observation below, posted recently nearby, is sobering as we note the distance we have traveled as a nation and people down the predicted path.
........................................

At about the time our original 13 states adopted their new constitution, in the year 1787, Alexander Tyler (a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinburgh) had this to say about "The Fall of The Athenian Republic" some 2,000 years prior.

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship.

The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence.


From Bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."


Cometose
(07/10/2004; 10:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122922)
Roundtable discussion
There's "crazy talk" over at Jim Pupulvas second hour today regarding many issues that are going to affect the price of gold......
I say crazy talk........because it's and indication of how far away the uninfomed public is from the truth about the financial underpinning of U S markets and how close readers of this forum are to the TRUTH .........

the manifestations of the disease in the system is surfacing slowly but is becoming unmistakable and these gentlemen with their "crazy talk " are intimating that at any time we could have an explosive event that will blow the lid off of the disease the media is attempting to cover up . At that time , they indicate, that it may be too late to prepare.....

Very enlightening........and confirming ........our worst fears...........

Don't be Paranoid.....Be Prepared ......THen you can follow the the advice of one of our gifted musical friends

and

DOn't Worry , Be Happy ............because you did your homework and you are getting ready to graduate.........
Your graduation present is going to be a BOAT ........
A BOAT THAT FLOATS that has a special automatic Navigation system on it that takes you where you want to go ( free open water) and automatically takes you out of the Storm .

eddiebhoy
(07/10/2004; 11:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122923)
makcumka ( msg#: 122890)
in reply to your theory of russian moves to introduce gold-backed rouble
i think you may be spot on as the kremlin looks to take back control
of the major wealth producers in the russian economy or at least not
let them be sold off to elite western intrests for pennies on the dollar

the yukos tale is incredibly fascinating as it shows very big players
in the game jockying for positions of control over russias biggest
oil producer with the largest oil reserves

heres how it began, all sunshine and smiles as far as the west was concerned

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1436189.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2116133.stm

then it looked as if money was there to be made by western oil firms and intrest
in investing there picked up dramatically as yukos/sibneft looked to merge even
though there was the first rumblings of kremlin investigations

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3160522.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3120661.stm

then things started to go a little array

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3217499.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3228257.stm

then surprising new owners appeared

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3235429.stm

then some of the top men sought safe haven

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3243735.stm

then the cat out the bag from the kremlin

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3277949.stm

then offers to set him free

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3492145.stm

merger gone

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3766333.stm

battles over

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3867079.stm


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3880129.stm

and to tie it all together with some history

http://www.joevialls.co.uk/myahudi/sunburn2.html

now we have news this week of major runs on private banks in russia
who or what could have caused that ???

especially seen as the state central bank is absolutely swimming in
gold and euros meanwhile it has been selling dollars over the last few years

http://www.mosnews.com/money/2004/07/09/moodysrussia.shtml


the financial chess game that is the euro/dollar/oil/gold comes
nearer to resolution.......


The Invisible Hand
(07/10/2004; 18:34:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122924)
Mother Russia
It looks like the new president of Yukos could solve Mother Russia's problems, but unfortunately, he's no longer at the helm of Russia's CB

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=539789
SNIP
"There is no banking crisis," the Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, said. "The banking system is in a normal state. What we see now is a reform process... and the fact that some banks cannot cope with that ... should not affect the whole system."

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=792542004
SNIPS
ONLY a few weeks have passed since Viktor Geraschenko accepted Russia's poisoned chalice - the chairmanship of crisis-stricken Yukos, the country's largest oil company. His job is to pour oil on Yukos's troubled waters.
+
Geraschenko, 67, is a dinosaur of the old Soviet establishment. Twice before, during periods of economic crisis, he had been rushed in to head Russia's Central Bank, the first between 1992 and 1994 and then between 1998 and 2002. Twice he was sacked. He was described once in the Wall Street Journal as "THE WORLD�S WORST CENTRAL BANKER". (emphasis mine)
+
But the latter era of Geraschenko's banking career will be remembered for producing a stable rouble and AN INDEPENDENT CENTRAL BANK WITH HUGE GOLD and hard currency RESERVES. (emphasis mine � rest of paragraph should also be emphasised) He fought against transferring the bank's gold and currency reserves to the government. He tried to explain what gold and hard currency reserves were for and why they should not be transformed into the pockets of the finance ministry. He feared the Central Bank would become "a soccer ball there for the kicking by everyone". Instead it was he who received the kicking.
He has played a difficult part with good humour. In an interview just before his sacking, he was asked what the exchange rate might be at the end of the year, he parried: "We are not a weather office, we issue no forecasts." He's not making forecasts about Yukos's future, either.

http://www.times.spb.ru/archive/times/984/top/t_12953.htm
SNIP
MOSCOW - The "socialist" policies of the Central Bank provoked the current instability and panic in the banking sector and could topple the whole financial system if left unchecked, President Vladimir Putin's top economic adviser warned Thursday
Toolie
(07/10/2004; 18:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 122925)
US Eagle
Does anyone know WHY the US chose to mint a gold bullion coin in 1986? Is there an official story?

Additionally, does the design of the reverse hold any significance for you?
Cometose
(07/10/2004; 20:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122926)
GE
For those who have any doubts about where we are on the charts relative to Gold's secular bull market ........
Check out Adam Hamilton's latest article next door....
and remember to do as Jim Sinclair says and GET REAL .....
GOLD.
Great Albino Bat
(07/11/2004; 00:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122927)
Stresses in the US banking system
www.lewrockwell.com/north/north282.htmlTwo articles in the past few days have been of special importance to this Forum.

The first was Dr. Kurt Richebacher's article at the Daily Reckoning, where he predicts a severe credit crunch about to hit the US. The origin of the crunch lies in the fact that rising interest rates have put an end to the ability of homeowners to continue squeezing funds out of their home equity, through refinancing. This means consumer buying will drop, with serious implications for the economy which relies on the consumer to continue buying.

The second and more ominous, is the appearance of "settlement fails" in the US banking system.

Every day, all banks in the US must settle interbank debits and credits. Failure of a bank to come up with the cash to settle claims against it, by other banks, is a very serious condition. Normally, it would - in my opinion - signify imminent bankruptcy for a bank unable to settle claims against itself, at day's end.

The Fed has stepped in to avoid such a situation by any bank, first on Sep 11, 2001, when as a consequence of grounded airplanes, massive amounts of checks did not arrive at their destination.

But there have been further days on which "settlement fails" took place. Most recently, in May 2004. This is indeed very serious.

The following, which appeared in Gary North's publication, expresses the concern of Warren Pollock. I could not find the link to the Pollock article, but you can go to it, from the article at Gary North's site, mentioned here.

Here is the substance of the "settlement fails" question, very troubling indeed, taking into account that interest rates are only just beginning to take place, and are unavoidable from now on.

If memory serves, just J.P. Morgan Chase has $29 Trillion interest rate derivatives on its books. Easy to write these derivatives, when interest rates are low and expected to remain so. When interest rates turn upwards, how on earth are the counterparties, which J.P Morgan Chase has relied upon to hedge its operations, going to come up with the cash to make good on their derivative obligations?

Here are the quotes from Pollock, at Gary North's site:

"The Federal Reserve provides the banking system with a framework to settle inter-bank transactions. On two occasions it is very clear that interest rate increases severely stressed the banking system. When the inter-bank settlement system temporarily fails to clear transactions banks are effectively "bouncing or kiting checks" to each other.

"The 9-11 event triggered the first failure of the settlement system. For technical reasons a statistic called "Settlement Fails" surged to epic proportions. At the peak of the technical problem it became impossible to settle $1.4 Trillion dollars of inter-bank transactions. The Fed was able to smooth the failure over.

"9/19/2001 1,476,185,000,000


"The system failed in July and August of 2003 when an unexpected market driven spike in long-term interest rates occurred. Rates were managed downward and the problem was temporarily solved.

"7/30/2003 938,354,000,000
8/6/2003 1,409,644,000,000
8/13/2003 1,356,773,000,000
8/20/2003 1,622,011,000,000
8/27/2003 1,040,811,000,000


"The same condition of failure occurred in May of 2004. The failure was directly related to the recent rise in interest rates. Increases in M3 liquidity could be "a fix" to this problem.
5/19/2004 1,175,041,000,000
5/26/2004 868,148,000,000"

Gary North goes on to say:

"Pollock then provides a graph of the 10-year treasury yield in comparison to the settlement-fails spike. He concludes:
"The recent failures are timed exactly to interest rate increases. The settlement system has a significant problem absorbing modest changes in interest rates. The FED must have to step in periodically to prevent a crisis from occurring. Interest rate sensitive derivatives and interest rate arbitrage plays are putting pressure on the continuity of the banking system.

"Given this condition, how can the FED raise interest rates to levels needed without blowing up the entire system? The problem is that the market will raise rates if the FED fails to do so."

The GAB says: Russia is having banking problems? So is the US, and very serious ones, of which it seems very few are at all aware.

Be sure to increase your stash of gold immediately, and insulate yourself from those problems.

The GAB
mikal
(07/11/2004; 08:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122928)
More gold in mainstream media
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040710.wxrtakingstock10/BNStory/Business/ Lots of Glitter Left in Gold
The Globe and Mail
Mathew Ingram - July 10, 2004
In this mainstream article, various reasons are cited for gold's improved performance in recent years, including it's
ancient allure and role as money. Also of interest is the
author's case for a long-term bull market, and
three extremely conservative price projections seen before
at USAGOLD.
Taken from comments of Pierre Lassonde, John Embry and another gentleman, the price forecasts
(two for 2005 and one for 2010) are recently,
often quoted in media stories neutral or moderately favorable to gold. To us seasoned gold analysts and investors, the quotes were deliberately chosen for there conservative, statist slant- to maintain the status quo
because it's too early to let the cat out of the bag.
misetich
(07/11/2004; 14:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122929)
Global: America's Job-Quality Trap - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040709-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

Nor is there much reason to celebrate the quality of the jobs that have been created over the past four months. In scanning the detailed industry breakdown of this recent pick-up in job creation, the leading sources turn out to be restaurants, temporary hiring agencies, and building services. Collectively, these three groupings, which comprise only 9.7% of total nonfarm payrolls, accounted for fully 25% of the cumulative growth in overall hiring from February to June 2004. Moreover, hiring has accelerated in other industries at the low end of the job hierarchy � namely, clothing stores, couriers, hotels, grocery stores, trucking, hospitals, social work, business support, and personal and laundry services. Collectively, this latter group of industries, which makes up 12% of the nonfarm workforce, accounted for another 19% of the total growth in business payrolls over the past four months. Putting these segments together, low-end jobs accounted for about 44% of total hiring over the February to June interval, double their share in the workforce. Consequently, to the extent there has been any improvement on the job front over the past four months, the impetus has been concentrated at the low end of the quality spectrum.
................
An even more dramatic picture of the quality of recent job growth emerges from the survey of households. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the count of nonfarm persons at work part time � both for economic and non-economic reasons � increased by 495,000 over the February to June 2004 interval. That amounts to an astonishing 97% of the cumulative increase of 509,000 in total nonagricultural employment as captured by the household survey over this period.
.......................
Globalization remains the most powerful economic force of the modern era. It was only a matter of time, in my view, before the IT-enabled globalization of work had a major impact on the US labor market. That time is now
***************
Misetich

Roach, again emphasizes the lack of meaninful job creation -
The manipulative Feds have resorted to other means in the past to stimulute consumer spending - The resulsts of which has resulted in an emerging housing bubble market and higher indebted conumser and households

It is the continuing jobless recovery which will force Sir Greenspan & Co to remain "accomodative" going forward and tolerating higher price inflation = higher gold prices

The time is NOW to add physical gold to one's insurance investment portfolio.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Camel
(07/11/2004; 15:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 122930)
NIMBY

Evidently the trade agreement with Mexico has received final approval allowing Mexican trucks into the US for the first time. A recent news article stated that the city of Alpine ,Texas will see truck traffic increase from 50 per day to 500 per day. A bypass might be built later on but for now they will be going right through downtown.

Poor deluded NIMBY. How could they be so stupid? Why they are right on the cutting edge of "progress" .
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/11/2004; 15:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122931)
A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Ned
(07/11/2004; 16:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122932)
If the dollar going to roll over?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax&w=1&t=l&a=200It's going to be a pivotal week IMHO. Hope that the chart attached works, USDX w/ 200 DMA which has just rolled over......barely.

Should get clues this week.

Did anyone see the possibility of a disconnect between physical and miners last week?

Have a golden week.
misetich
(07/11/2004; 16:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 122933)
Analyst Commentary by S&P Major Sector
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040709-fri.html#anchor0Snip:

Consumer Discretionary: Business conditions deteriorated, while pricing conditions improved for most groups. .... No industries plan on increasing capex over the next 1�6 months.

Consumer Staples: Business conditions were mixed for the consumer staples companies. Pricing conditions were improved, as most groups are increasing prices to recoup higher input costs with the exception of food retailers who are having difficulty passing through higher prices. Hiring is flat for the group.

Energy: Business and pricing conditions are noticeably improved in early July for the oil services companies. Advance bookings have picked up and hiring conditions are strong. The companies plan on increasing capex by 10% or more over the next three months.

Financials: Business conditions are mixed for the financials while pricing conditions are deteriorating. Business conditions are improving for the REITs and deteriorating for large-cap banks, property/casualty and mortgage-finance companies. Employment conditions are weak, as large-cap banks and mortgage finance companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months, although multifamily REITs, mid-cap banks, and specialty finance companies plan on adding to payrolls over the next three months.

Healthcare: Business conditions were slightly weaker this month, although conditions continued to improve for healthcare facilities. Prices increased for the sector and hiring plans are stable for the group.

Industrials: Industrials continue to experience broad based improvement. Business conditions as well as advance bookings continued to improve. Pricing conditions continued to improve, although prices have fallen by 1�3% for the airlines. Most groups with the exception of electrical equipment and machinery/multi-industry plan on increasing capex, and all groups except electrical equipment and airlines plan on adding to payrolls somewhat.

Information Technology: Business and pricing conditions are mixed in IT. Advance bookings are also very strong for the group. In general, hiring plans for the technology sector remain strong. Internet and PC application software, electronic manufacturing services, and semiconductor companies plan on increasing capex by 10% or more from current levels.

Materials: Business conditions continued to improve for the steel group and moderated for specialty chemicals and paper and packaging companies. Prices charged at steel companies have increased by 3% or more and advance bookings have increased; financing conditions have also improved. Steel companies plan on increasing capex by 10% or more, while the paper and forest products companies plan on increasing capex by only 0�3%. Hiring plans for the group are stable.

Telecommunications Services: Telecom services continued to suffer in June, partially at the expense of the wireless services. Bookings were higher for the wireless services companies. Prices charged continued to decline for the group, and the telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three. Both groups plan on increasing capex by 3�6% over the next 1�6 months.

Utilities: Business conditions were unchanged last month for the electric utilities companies. Prices charged continue to increase, but at a decelerating rate. Companies are still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three, although they plan on increasing capex by 0�3% over the next 1�6 months.
***************
Misetich

From above

*Hiring is flat for the group.
*Hiring conditions are strong. (ENERGY INDUSTRY)
*Employment conditions are weak, as large-cap banks and mortgage finance companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months,
*and hiring plans are stable for the group.
* and airlines plan on adding to payrolls somewhat. (????? arilines hiring? - in which planet?)
*In general, hiring plans for the technology sector remain strong.( Earnings Warnings in IT are increasing!!)
*Hiring plans for the group are stable.( COMMODITIES!)
*telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months
*and have no plans to step up hiring

In few words - prices are increasing - jobless recovery continues

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/11/2004; 17:00:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122934)
Middle East Expert Sees Saudi Instability Threatening Oil Mkt Jul 9 / 16:13 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1089403980000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - "Saudi Arabia is in a crisis," and unless internal turmoil is curbed, the world oil markets may face the consequences of a failed state, a U.S.-based analyst said Friday.

Speaking at a Hudson Institute policy forum, Simon Henderson, an analyst from the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy said the "growing apparent strength of al-Qaida" is circumventing the Saudi royal
family's leadership, creating a "battle of Islamic legitimacy" the House of Saud is likely to lose.

Henderson referred in particular to the internal struggle between Crown Prince Abdullah, and Prince Naif, the Saudi interior minister.

"Instead of a structure of stability, you have a structure of tension," Henderson said.

The analyst said the aging Saudi leadership is undergoing
"processes of succession" that will likely produce "less than stable" outcomes.

"If there is chaos in Saudi Arabia, then it hits us all very
quickly." Most notably, he said a failed state would have dangerous impacts on global oil markets.

"The impact will be on the price of oil all over the world," he said, not just in countries that have relatively higher reliances on OPEC oil.
***************
Misetich

Jim Sinclair has been emphasizing the Saudi's dilemma - and the odds of something major happening are RISING

How will soaring oil prices affect gold prices?

As Ralph (Jackie Gleason, the Hoeymooners) would say " to the moon Alice, to the moon ..."

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
White Hills
(07/11/2004; 21:47:34 MDT - Msg ID: 122935)
Camel, Mexican Trucks
Very interesting, I hadn't heard that they had approved the Mexican trucks coming into this country.It is my opinion that it will be a disaster in the making if they do. For one thing it will hurt out domestic trucking industry right when they are under the pressure of rising fuel costs. Also it will put those routes that they use and the domestic traffic that uses them in danger. The Mexican trucking business is notorious concerning the lousy equipment that they use and the number of unqualified drivers they have as well as the unreliability of the insurance they have. It will certainly facilitate the movement of illegal drugs,
illegal aliens and all other contraband into the country.

The ports of entry along the Mexican border are already stretched to the limits of their capacity and have been for some years. In times like these when we should be securing our borders and not inviting all the problems that allowing Mexican trucks to go willy-nily were ever they want will cause. I have really heard no good argument that would support such measures which are a part of NAFTA. Everytime anybody questions our trade policies the supporters of Globilization cry "FREE TRADE" which is to them the Holy Grail which can't be questioned. To me becoming the consumer market of the world only will and does represent a transfer of wealth from this country to the seller of those consumer products. How long can we continue to print dollars to pay for all this relativily one way FREE TRADE? White Hills
Liberty Head
(07/11/2004; 23:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 122936)
Re: White Hills Tirade Against Free Trade

I am inclined to debate your Anti-Free Trade opinions.
On this forum however, I feel compelled to keep the argument relative to gold.
It would be interesting to hear what you think about the merits of owning gold relative to your anti-free market views.

Should domestic gold transactions also be protected from foreign competition, restricting the benefits of lower cost to millions of consumers, forcing us to subsidize a less efficient supplier?
Suppose I chose to purchase gold willy-nilly from an undocumented Mexican on the street selling gold coins from a cart.
Suppose I have confidence in myself to discern if the transaction is authentic or bogus, and I don't require external protection.
The transaction is not fraudulent or coerced in any way.
Should that be against the law or just a risky way of doing business?
Don't I have a right to do business with whomever I choose, as long as I accept responsibility for the outcome from my choices?

I wouldn't worry too much about undocumented aliens any way.
Immigration always flows in the direction of more freedom and shamefully, freedom has become quite bearish in the USA.
In fact, many of our most productive citizens have already gone off shore.

Best Wishes
968
(07/12/2004; 03:55:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122938)
UK urges IMF to revalue gold for debt relief
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2146076&fSectionId=613&fSetId=304UK urges IMF to revalue gold for debt relief
July 12, 2004
By Reed Landberg

SNIP : UK Gordon Brown asks IMF to revalue their gold in their books (still valued about 40US$ an ounce). This way they have "a backing" (sorry Ari) for write-off of developing nation-debt. IMF emphasises they have no intention to sell their gold (3217 tons).
------------------------------------------------------------
First step in a revaluation of non-monetary assets/reserves ? Was't it better to buy gold to back their depreciating dollar assets ?
968
(07/12/2004; 06:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 122939)
Gold / China.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buildhbi/cn/bp_artikel/docid/760242/STRUCID/PAGE_200011/PAGEID/PAGE_200729/index.htmlUnfortenately in German.
SNIP : According to Graham Birch (Merril Lynch) China is going to put a lot of its trade surplus in dollar denominated assets. These assets have to be low risk investments for insurance against creditrisk en inflation. The only investment perfect for these purposes is GOLD. China has already increased their goldreserves the last months.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even Merril Lynch knows the best and safest investment is GOLD !
Liberty Head
(07/12/2004; 08:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122940)
Re: 1340cc

1340cc,
The problems you mention are real and serious problems, however they are not caused by free trade.
Those problems are the result of government owned highway systems. They are good arguments in support of highway privatization.
When free trade is restricted, both the sellers and the buyers suffer a lower standard of living.
I want our domestic trucking industry to prosper as well, but not by government enforced subsidies.
More people prosper from a free and competitive market than prosper from PAC controlled trade.
These are basically the same arguments we see here pertaining to gold (free) vs. fiat (controlled) currency.

Best Wishes
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/12/2004; 11:28:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122941)
Helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Tevye
(07/12/2004; 11:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122942)
Tevye a Contest Winner!
I am vacationing away from email and other on-line pursuits for a couple weeks but had the chance to check in to the forum today. What a wonderful surprise to find that I was a contest winner! Many Many thanks to all and congrats and complements to all the entrants! I will write more in the near future.
I hope the fish keep biting!

Gold. Its Tradition!

Tevye

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/12/2004; 11:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 122943)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. They find new uneducated targets ripe for picking arriving at their doorstep every day. It doesn't have to be that way, but some investors simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm that will treat them professionally and with respect. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.

TownCrier
(07/12/2004; 12:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122944)
In opening remarks last week, ECB's Otmar Issing reminds us why we're here
http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2004/html/sp040706.en.html(excerpts)

Central banking activities can impact on longer run growth through a number of potential channels. ... Specifically, the question addressed is whether the pursuit of the objective of price stability by the central bank leads to higher output and living standards in the longer term.

Interest in the link between monetary policy and economic growth has a long tradition. Up until the middle of the 20th century the dominant opinion was encapsulated in 'classical view' of John Stuart Mill and other classical economists. According to this view, money is essentially a veil. Monetary policy, via the resulting quantity of money, determines the overall price level but has no impact on the level of output.

Of course, observers such as David Ricardo were aware of the temporary stimulative effect on output emanating from increases in the money stock. Indeed, as a result of the Keynesian revolution, the short run relationship between monetary and growth has been a dominant interest of macroeconomists since the middle of the 20th century.

The subsequent neglect of the longer-run relationship between monetary policy and output is somewhat surprising since, when cumulated over time, longer-term sustained changes in output have welfare implications which substantially outweigh the effects of normal cyclical fluctuations.

As Robert Lucas (1988) points out, "the consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are staggering: once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else".

-----(from url)----

A worthy toil that eventually lands its better thinkers at the threshold of gold.

R.
Buongiorno!
(07/12/2004; 12:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 122945)
transportation woes!

The vigilent souls at airport security recently relieved me of a money clip that had a finger nail file attached less than two inches long. Pathetic thing! Also had to x-ray my see-through hat. Coulda read a newspaper through that hat and had me hopping around in stocking feet!

Now, we allow an uninspected Mexican truck, paying little tax, to blast down our highways weighing lord knows how much at whatever speed and no one has a problem with that because we need "free trade". What is wrong with this picture? (Can we not have a level playing field for competitors who are in our country?)

Perhaps the mid-level navel-gazers have really taken over and those at the top do not realize....perhaps we are so eager to do business that we lose perspective....things are really unraveling. Matto, matto mondo!

Excuse me while I go and buy a new gold-plated killer finger nail file.....
Buongiorno!
Federal_Reserves
(07/12/2004; 12:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 122946)
Free trade
Free trade policies are being used as a foreign policy tool, equated with spreading democracy and American influence around the globe. If we trade with various countries who do not share our democratic values such as communist China, it is said to lessen tensions and move them more to our views. This is a theory which in fact is untested, even dangerous.

Aristotle
(07/12/2004; 13:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122947)
Sir 968, thanks for starting the day so well!
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=2146076&fSectionId=613&fSetId=304Great article!

I've got a question for you, though. When someone uses the word "SNIP" I assume it means they're directly quoting a portion of an article, but I couldn't find the section which corresponded to your selection. Has the article been revised in the past few hours, or were you paraphrasing?

Either way, you don't have to apologize to me for the "backing" term. I tried to make the point a couple days ago (Friday(?)) but it's probably too subtle a point to really matter much to anyone else but a monetary pedant (and we all know what bores THEY can be!)

Sooooooo... true to form I'd rather not throw in the towel quite this easily, and I'll make this additional remark: rather than dealing with the "backing" term you cited, I greatly prefer the word usage found at the end of the article:

"a way of allowing the IMF to boost its assets and reduce its liabilities."

"Backing" is probably best left exclusively for use when describing physical phenomena such as the presence of adhesive in the proximity of postage stamps.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
J-Bullion
(07/12/2004; 13:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122948)
Silver supplies
Almost 1 million ounces were withdrawn from the comex today. That 20 million ounce shift recently might have been the start of something.
Liberty Head
(07/12/2004; 14:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122949)
Free trade - unobscured

Buongiorno!, Federal_Reserves,

Safety issues are best dealt with as safety issues.
Tax issues are best dealt with as tax issues.
The same goes for foreign policy issues.
Why obscure and complicate the free trade issue with all this other stuff?
A free market is self leveling at the highest possible level.
Once the government and regulations are involved, the trade is no longer free. Any attempt to "level the playing field" involves more regulation and less freedom.
It's like trying to level a table by cutting off the legs one at a time. By the time the table is level,it has lost all it's value as a table. Then what do we do in the USA?
We start cutting the legs off the chairs too, then we raise taxes on the folks with long legs.
It is pathetic!

Freedom is a good thing.
Responsibility is a good thing.
Both are best acheived in a free market economy,
neither require government intervention.

Gold shines it brightest in a free market.


Best Wishes
Aristotle
(07/12/2004; 14:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 122950)
J-Bullion metal movement; Liberty Head free trade
J-B,
the COMEX-sanctioned bean counters also reported a departure of over 1.1 tonnes of Gold from COMEX-blessed depositories. It doesn't mean much to me personally, but if this is the sorta high-profile thing that can inspire anyone else to do the right thing and get Gold, then more's the better and I'm all for it.

Liberty Head,
Right on. Good post. Tables becoming floor mats... heh heh heh.
Personal responsibility AND Gold both shine their brightest in a free market.

Far outdoing the formal elections, through our actions and purchases we are effectively voting daily and consequently shaping the structure of the world toward what we'd prefer to live in.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/12/2004; 14:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122951)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.

---closing market rap excerpts---

Gold Sturdy, Awaits Data Releases...

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange adopted a holding pattern Monday to consolidate last week's scramble above the $405-per-ounce level on fund buying spurred by the weaker U.S. dollar....

Gold futures staged a late-session reversal Monday to end narrowly higher as a broad market decline sparked fresh investment interest in precious metals. The fall in the broader markets, led by downgrades in technology stocks, offset pressure on gold prices from the stronger U.S. dollar but kept metals equities lower....

The most-active Aug contract settled 50 cents higher at $408.40.

Overall activity levels were fairly light ... many gold market participants are expected to await a resumption in the dollar's trend lower before re-igniting buy-side interest in gold....

With data on the U.S. trade balance, retail sales, jobless claims, producer and consumer prices, and industrial production due this week, sources agree that gold is expected to likely see a choppy ride by way of the U.S. dollar's reactions to those reports, and that volumes would likely be patchy....

"The dollar is expected to come under pressure this week as some data has been forecast to come in on the weak side, so I think gold is waiting for that bad news to be confirmed and the dollar to weaken again before we push higher again," said a floor dealer with a large U.S. commission house....

U.S. inflation data due out later this week "should have a positive impact and help set the stage for the next leg up toward the old highs of $430 to $435,"....

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr global economic headlines)---
Boilermaker
(07/12/2004; 14:51:44 MDT - Msg ID: 122952)
Golden Prize Received
While mowing the lawn this PM a big white FedEx truck stopped on the road out front and a young man jumped out with a big white envelope. I stopped the mower and greeted the fellow with a smile. After confirming that I was the addressee I signed the delivery receipt and became the proud owner of a shiny old $10 Eagle. Many thanks to all at CPM for their continuing dedication to excellence in all things golden.

Boilermaker
Buongiorno!
(07/12/2004; 16:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122953)
free markets

@ Liberty Head--you miss the (tongue firmly in cheek) high irony of my finger-nail file being a safety concern, but no one cares about an 80,000 pound vehicle running on our roads without inspections that our own trucks must meet. Unsafe and not fair all at once!

Agree that markets should be free, but they must also be fair--and each of us might define that in different ways. OK. Also think these actions are a measure of our despiration. And it is that very despiration and the things that have brought us to this point that make my case for gold.

We bin tryin' to spend ourselves rich -- then borry our way out of debt fer too many years!

Wine for my men! Fire up the Peterbuilt! We ride in an hour!
Buongiorno!
White Hills
(07/12/2004; 17:20:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122954)
Liberty Head
As far as your remarks about my "tirade on free trade" you obviously did not read it correctly. I will not even defend my remarks as truth is self evident and needs no defense.

As to its appropriateness for this forum I will remind you that any economic happening that affects the dollar will, in turn, have some affect on Gold. That so-called "free trade" results in large trade deficits and has for a long time. This means an out-of-balance system that causes more dollars to flow out of the country. When we print those dollars, that causes more inflation in the long run, and the effect is the rise of the price of gold. That may be a simplification, but it is also true. If you have an argument with that, go back to the 1970's when you could buy a new car for $3500.00 or 100 oz of gold and compare it to today where 100 oz of gold at 400 oz can still buy a new car. We are presently printing dollars at a breathtaking pace and the ramifications of that I will leave to the many able posters on this forum. Yes, my friend, it would be better to call "free trade" "one way trade", or "suicide trade" (which I think are better definitions.) White Hills
misetich
(07/12/2004; 17:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 122955)
Reality Check: U.S. Cargo Execs: May/June Imports Swamp Ports Jul 12 / 10:38 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1089643080000&sn=1&banner=mainwireSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - An overflow of foreign-made goods entered the U.S. in May, and early reports suggest an even bigger flood in June, with manpower and equipment at American ports struggling to keep pace with unprecedented volumes, say port and cargo officials.

The peak season is still ahead and containers are already piling up, raising concerns about bottlenecks through the summer and fall, they say.

The heavy inbound flows in May were caused by an unending appetite for consumer goods, a desire to secure those goods in advance of peak-season bottlenecks and a desire to beat modest general rate increases scheduled to begin in May, officials note.

Meanwhile, May exports were mixed, with many exporters reporting continuing progress, while some noticed a slight retreat from the progress of past months, suggesting no help coming from a weaker dollar in narrowing the U.S. trade deficit.
..............
The U.S. Commerce Department is scheduled to release international trade data for May on Tuesday, July 13 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. April's trade deficit set a record at $48.3 billion. The above commentary detailed May and June.
****************
Misetich

The trade deficit keeps on ballooning as jobs have been exported overseas ...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/12/2004; 17:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 122956)
Norway fire keeps oil over $40
http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/12/markets/oil.reut/index.htmSnip:

LONDON, (Reuters) - Oil prices made fresh gains Monday after a blaze at Norway's biggest oil refinery halted the plant's gasoline exports and strengthened concerns over transatlantic supply.
***************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues as the margin of error has been reduced to high risk, due to production constraints and high demand

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/12/2004; 17:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 122957)
China's June Exports Jump 47% to Record $51 Billion
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aR1IzMf8SDcM&refer=asiaSnip:

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's exports surged 47 percent to a record in June, helping drive growth in the world's seventh- largest economy as the government reins in lending to cool an investment boom.

Overseas sales jumped to a larger-than-expected $51 billion after climbing 33 percent in May, the Beijing-based commerce ministry said on its Web site. China's imports were also stronger than expected, surging 51 percent to $49 billion, their biggest gain in more than a decade.
****************
Misetich

It appears the chinese administration is being successful in slowing down overheated sectors and keep their economy humming.

Stress on commodities prices will continue as the Orient roars ahead

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Camel
(07/12/2004; 18:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 122958)
What planet are you living on?

OK,I'll bite.

My objection to the trucks was that they will destroy the peaceful small town ambiance of several little communities in the Big Bend area. Were doing just fine out here. Business is booming from all the tourists trying escape the cities, culture is thriving and everyone is happy. We don't want your stinking trucks!!!!!

As I understand it, La Entrada is a highway from the west coast of Mexico to somewhere in the Midland -Odessa area where a new warehousing center is to be constructed. All is said to be the brainchild of some shadowy, guilt ridden, oil man trying to atone for what they did to that area . At one time it had one of the biggest pools of oil and gas on the planet, but they pumped it dry, dry as a bone, so dry that all the little towns are just drying up and blowing away.

They are no different from the buffalo hunters. They have no conscience and no soul . They are like sharks , the perfect killing machine,. They have control of the congress and they have prevented any sort of government plan to conserve energy even in the face of impending catastrophe.

Have you ever asked your self what kind person would be in the cigarette business? According to the American Lung Association 400,000 people per year die from the affects of smoking. Multiply this by 50 years and it comes out to 20 million killed( including John Wayne and Humphrey Bogart) and millions more maimed and crippled. That is just in this country. They get away with it because they have bought off the congress. If you tried to do this in any small town in America you would never get to court because some angry mom or dad would jump over the rail and rip your throat out.

The libertarian ideologue trying to to equate contemporary corporate capitalism with John Galts little Utopian community up on the mountaintop. What planet are you guys living on.
Aristotle
(07/12/2004; 18:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 122959)
Where are we? Navigating by the sound of Gordon Brown's voice
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=539802Serious students of Gold will remember the previous time Gordon Brown agitated in the Gold arena so visibly was the spring of 1999 where he called for IMF Gold sales amidst an unprecedented environment of large precautionary Y2K buying spree by the general public and also a reserve dollar being newly challenged by another monetary system, the euro.

The outcome was a program of Gold sales from Her Majesty's Treasury, presumably the salvation of the LBMA's bullion banking network in a very tight spot. Another outcome was the late-September announcement by the network of euro-land and sundry relatives informing the world through its Washington Agreement that "Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves. " The turnaround in Gold's fate was thus assured, and the IMF took a few trial steps to the beat of this new tune at year's end, not with sales, but with an operation to revalue a sample portion of its Gold reserves to market value.

Old dogs *can* learn new tricks, especially when survival depends on it, and that's what we seem to be seeing signaled these five years later. The euro model has proven the superiority of its legs, and there's no use for the Anglo-American/IMF resistors (the privileged shepherds of the old system) to continue fighting the long sure defeat.

To be sure, the Chancellor isn't wasting our time calling publicly for any more Gold sales. Rather, it's a call for Gold *revaluation* that suits his political purpose this time around. A-A halfway throwing in the towel on the outmoded IMF???? How close behind can FreeGold now be expected to make its full-bodied appearance?

Brown unleased his Gold revaluation proposal wrapped up in a speech of compelling humanitarian themes.

Begin snip
-----------Gordon Brown called on world leaders yesterday [...] At a conference of church and government leaders at the Vatican [...] He compared the campaign against poverty and disease in the 21st century with the challenge of rebuilding Europe after the Second World War. Then, the US backed the Marshall Plan that saw billions of dollars used to reconstruct the British and Continental economies.

"This time it is not war-ravaged Europe but the disease-ravaged countries of Africa," the Chancellor said. "With Britain holding a special responsibility through our presidency of the Group of Eight nations and the European Union we are determined to take advantage of this opportunity to make 2005 a development presidency designed to make real and irreversible progress in tackling poverty," Mr Brown said.

"It is our Christian teaching that when some are poor our whole society is impoverished, that when there is injustice anywhere it is a threat to justice everywhere and what selfish men tear down selfless men and women must build anew."

Mr Brown called on the International Monetary Fund to revalue its vast gold reserves to in an accounting device that would enable it to write off the multi-billion-dollar debts owed by some of the world's poorest countries.---------------
End snip


Unless they change their ways, the managers of the institutions of bullion banking will find themselves cold and lonely on the outside looking in as more and more thinking persons and their governments come to recognize and understand the benefits of a non-derivative FreeGold system for the greater good of mankind. Make a purchase and vote for it today.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Toolie
(07/12/2004; 19:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 122960)
From Ari's last post
Snip: Mr Brown called on the International Monetary Fund to revalue its vast gold reserves to in an accounting device that would enable it to write off the multi-billion-dollar debts owed by some of the world's poorest countries.--------------- (end snip)

So true to the Euro model, an increasing gold price allows a further printing of fiat. It's not hard to envision this sort of thing feeding on its self.
Aristotle
(07/12/2004; 19:27:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122961)
Toolie, there's more to it than just that.
But I'm not going to object at the risk of confusing the matter for any of the folks who might be able to seize upon this oversimplified case as an excellent tool for helping them understand that whatever may unfold INflationwise, (money supply) *DEflation* is definitely a thing of the past.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Great Albino Bat
(07/12/2004; 21:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 122962)
About those hateful trucks...

Remember please, they are carrying goods INTO your country, goods that have been purchased by means of providing the Mexicans with some vouchers that will never be paid, called "dollars".

So, the US is getting stuff free from Mexico, on those trucks.

The GAB thinks that since the stuff in the trucks is for free, the least that could be done in return is to let that stuff arrive in those hated trucks.

How does that grab you?

The GAB
Liberty Head
(07/12/2004; 21:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122963)
Re; Buongiorno!

Buongiorno!,

I really like what you said about fairness:
"Agree that markets should be free, but they must also be fair--and each of us might define that in different ways. "
------
Everyone wants fairness and as you point out, each person has their own definition of what is fair.
In a free market each individual is free to trade or not trade based on his own definition of fairness. What could be more fair than that?
Who wants somebody else's definition of fairness forced upon him?

Best Wishes
mikal
(07/12/2004; 21:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 122964)
@Liberty Head
A free market SHOULD be fair yes.
The question is what is fair? And who is impacted?
The greatest tragedy of modern markets is
the lack of moderation, balance and harmony.
Where sufficiency is no longer good enough- one must
conquer nature and nations of "infidels" who do not share the same political, cultural and religious "enlightenment".
No heed given to the working conditions of low wage nations, the lack of safety and environmental standards, the massive resource depletion, the disregard for traditional and sustainable
land, wildlife and forest management resulting in droughts, flooding, desertification, mudslides, etc.
The affects are on the environment, in disease and war, in financial and social disorder and dislocation, unemployment, family breakdowns, escalating crime rates,
escapism, sexual abberations, drug and alcohol abuse,
psychological and eating disorders, etc.
The ability to sustain the use of debt money is
one of the major ills cited in scriptures worldwide,
as is the weakness of men to embrace deceit.
Black Blade
(07/12/2004; 22:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 122965)
Energy Prices Set to Rise Again

Looks like FERC has warned of NatGas shortages again and higher oil prices.

Anyway, I will be gone a few days on business. In fact I am writing this from a hotel internet room.

Take care and congrats all contest winners!

- Black Blade
Liberty Head
(07/12/2004; 23:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122966)
Freedom!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When the fires of passion for freedom burn, one can always count on a multitude of statist to quickly form a bucket brigade.

Thankfully, I stand not alone.

----------
I praise our gracious host for providing this forum and don't mean to imply anything negative about CPM, quite the contrary.

Best Wishes
968
(07/13/2004; 00:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122967)
@ Aristotle mssg #122947
Sorry Ari, you're right. I used the SNIP-thing wrong. Mea culpa ! I'm not used to communicate in English.
Belgian
(07/13/2004; 01:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 122968)
Yet, "again"...ANOTHER official Gold-statement from the euro corner....
Noyer (ECB) : ...selling Gold...is... OUT OF THE QUESTION !!!
968
(07/13/2004; 01:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 122969)
YUKOS
HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 13. Juli 2004, 08:28 Uhr
SNIP : Chodorkowskij plant, seine Aktien der Konzernf�hrung kostenlos zu �berlassen
Am Vorabend war ein neues Milliarden-Angebot der Yukos-F�hrung zur Tilgung der Steuerschulden bekannt geworden. Der bis vor kurzem noch gr��te russische ... lkonzern bot den Beh�rden eine stufenweise Zahlung von insgesamt 6,5 Mrd. Euro an. Yukos muss mit Steuernachforderungen von insgesamt bis zu zehn Mrd. Euro f�r die Jahre 2000 bis 2003 rechnen. Der bislang hoch profitabel arbeitende Konzern ist nach einem ersten rechtskr�ftigen Urteil seit im Verzug mit der R�ckzahlung von 2,8 Mrd. Euro. Finanzminister Alexej Kudrin hatte am Freitag betont, es w�rden keine Teilzahlungen akzeptiert. Es gilt in Moskau als sicher, dass die Steuerverfahren gegen Yukos und der Strafprozess gegen dessen Eigent�mer im Zusammenhang stehen.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Kremlin doen't want to solve Yukos tax evasion problem. The penalties have to be paid in one time (10 billion Euros). Yukos offered to pay 6.5 billion Euros in steps, but the government declined this offer.
Putin definetely wants to control all Russian oil. Pay attention : they offered to pay in Euros, not in rubles or dollars.
price
(07/13/2004; 03:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122970)
Expanding the Market with a Sound Money Bill
http://goldmoneybill.org/ Here's what I sent last week to all the Virginia state senators and delegates. Its a baby step, of course, but easy enough for others to get their state involved, too.

PRice

I'm writing to ask you to consider sponsoring a Gold/Silver Money Bill for Virginia for the next legislative session. New Hampshire has introduced such a bill, and from the information at http://goldmoneybill.org/ it appears that substituting the state name is all that's needed to introduce the same bill in other states.
968
(07/13/2004; 05:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 122971)
@ Belgian
Hello Belgian, I'm glad you are back. Did you have a golden holiday ? Have you heard the European Commmission will appoint Mr. Juncker as political counterpart for Mr. Trichet ? Your thoughts ?
Buongiorno!
(07/13/2004; 08:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122972)
"free" stuff from Mexico!

@ GAB--Love your premise that we are just creating bogus $ and sending them to Mexico, thus getting "free" stuff for nothing. And to heck with the idea that their trucks must meet our standards to use our roads.
Great! Next, we should have every Mexican adopt an American and do all his work for him. We could shut everything down, create even more money, and all go on vacation--courtesy of our very own Mexican national!

This is not new. Just before the Soviets collapsed, the standard joke was, "we just pretend to work, and the gov. pretends to pay us"!(The money was no good, for that very reason.) Badda-bing, down with the wall!

Spain's plunder from the New World could have made her the world's first truly modern nation--all that capital! But she chose to just live well, do silly stuff, and imported, rather than creating, goods for living. She became then, is now, and will remain, less than a (ahem) world leader.

GAB always has real genius--I know somewhere, in his dark cave,he has head tucked under wing, laffin'and laffin', cause he was just foolin' with our minds. And he knows that those Soviet workers (and Americans) would love to have a few of MK's golden coins.

So...."If someone offers you a deal too good to be true....it probably is just that."
Buongiorno!
Belgian
(07/13/2004; 09:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 122973)
@968
Junckers/Trichet = Another act in the euro-palace-intriges.
cfr. G.Brown/Blair stuff and recent statement on IMF Goldreserves.
Today's CNBC even polls the general public's preferences about pricing oil in $-� or yen. Cru(d)e(l) question, isn't it ? They know it is coming...w're heading towards it, step by step.
But the many EU (euro)factions (inside and outside) still differ on the way (speed) the "transition" should evolve (orderly or disorderly). Some even wish to encourage a positive pro Bush environment as to have him (the administration) re-elected. Simply to make things worse, before they can turn for the better as a tactical (politically intriging) move.
Many CBs (China-Russia-others) have been changing their fundamental reserve-view ! This is slowly but surely coming into the open public athmosphere.

Yes, I had a great holiday and met some Brits in France (Aquitaine-Bordeaux) who massively are buying their second property in France as to have a pied a terre under the euro-umbrella. They are anticipating.

The EU wishes to have Junckers on board as to bring Luxembourg (and Switzerland), both dissident capital (fiscal) paradises, in line with EU capital regulations and targets(convergence).

For the time being, $-POG will continue to perfectly mirror the $-� exchange rate and $-�-POGs (plural) are not permitted to have a life of their own,... YET (oil >< gold-matters)!
With the cruel crude going above the $40 pb, evidence of "pricing" (not yet invoicing) the oil in euro, becomes clear for all to see. Next curtain that must (publicly) fall is the oil-gold relatonship. FreeGold allergics should stock on their (metallic) medicine...and preferably not in homeopathic dosises (-):(-). Chuz, Socrates.
968
(07/13/2004; 10:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 122974)
@ Belgian
I ask myself wether the � is the alternative ? France & Germany budget deficits are above the 3%GDP-rule. No reaction from European Commission, now Italy is having troubles and Il Duce Silvio will get away with it ! Where will all this end ?
Aristotle
(07/13/2004; 11:09:07 MDT - Msg ID: 122975)
968, budget deficits over GDP (%)
France and Germany's deficits are big pieces, but even so, they're still not the *whole* eurosystem pie. The way the world works, its not reasonable to expect anything to be *perfect*. As they sit on the bakery shelves wanting for customers, the eurosystem needn't be perfect, it needs only to be *better* than the others -- specifically, better than the dollarsystem pie.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/13/2004; 11:32:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122976)
You have a friend in the business
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/13/2004; 11:36:26 MDT - Msg ID: 122977)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Goldless Heathen
(07/13/2004; 12:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 122978)
Do the Feds track gold ownership?
Happy Bastille Day Eve! Do the authorities track my individual gold(physical) ownership? If I buy a few Gold and Silver Eagles is that recorded in some way? Does the broker have to record and report to whom and what he has sold? Thanks in advance.
Aristotle
(07/13/2004; 12:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 122979)
Mr. Price -- Gold money bill

How did we get where we are today in the monetary realm?

Was the evolution driven by natural or artificial force?

Has anything occurred to suspend that force?

Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

Gold *AS* money (technically, it was only ever used as currency) is a thing of the past.

Gold has been working hard ever since in the minds of thinking men to throw off its monetary-ties and legacy shackles. Gold is ascending to its paramount role as property == king of wealth.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
price
(07/13/2004; 14:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 122980)
Gold money bill
http://goldmoneybill.org/Aristotle:

I didn't find it easy reading through the legislation. But what is proposes to be used is the market value, not the stated value, of the U.S. gold and silver eagles.

Was that your concern?

PRice

Aristotle
(07/13/2004; 15:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122981)
Price-man
Soooo.... it'll move at market value.

Seems to me like a long way around just to "reinvent" Bullion, no?

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/13/2004; 15:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 122982)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- closing market excerpts ---

Sharp gains in the U.S. dollar, following a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit, sent gold and silver futures sharply lower Tuesday. But then, analysts and traders said, these metals might have been due for a pullback, anyway, after their recent rallies...

[Refco's James] Steel and [Prospect Asset Mgt's Leonard] Kaplan both said the recent rallies in gold and silver may been overdone. This was especially the case for silver, added Steel. "It hadn't shown a justifiable reason for the rally," said the Refco analyst. Aug gold had shot up from a July 6 low of $389 to a July 8 high of $409.60, while Sep silver had climbed from a close of $5.79 on the final day of June to a high of $6.58 on Monday. Kaplan pointed out that numerous analysts lately had been calling for a big rally in gold, with some saying prices could move to $430 and some of the more bullish forecasts as high as $480. "They were all bullish like crazy," said Kaplan. "Naturally, when everyone is on one side of the market, it goes the other way."...

"Gold is feeling the effects of a smaller than expected trade balance report," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. ... Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit for May -- marking the first narrowing in six months -- sent the dollar higher against most foreign currencies Tuesday....

The dollar flexed its muscles Tuesday morning after the government said the nation's trade deficit narrowed to $45.95 billion from a revised $48.1 billion in May....

Aug gold lost $6.10 to $402.30...

"It's dollar-related," said Leonard Kaplan....

Stops were triggered in the currency market, enabling the dollar to add to its gains, forex sources said. Stops were also triggered in the precious metals....

"The dollar comeback, based very much off of the trade figures, undermined both gold and silver," said Jim Steel...

"Exports out of the United States were stronger than what analysts thought," Person added. "This translates to a potential trend developing, and in that case would be bullish [for] the dollar."...

John Strafford, editor of Strafford's Investment Strategy Letter, argued that gold actually "rises coincident with rising interest rates at this stage of the dollar/gold cycle and under these conditions."

He pointed out that "gold rose from $42 to $850 as interest rates rose from 6 percent to nearly 20 percent" in early 1980.

Person also asserted that the difference between the past and the present is that the market wasn't trading globally, and that China, Russia and Latin America weren't moving toward capitalism then. Gold formerly was an investment hedge against inflation, but now traders have more "effective trading vehicles," such as options and other derivative products, to use as hedges against rising inflationary pressures and against rising interest rates, he argued.

In any event, the gold market is "slightly overbought and this was an excuse to take money off the table and view pullbacks as a buying opportunity," Person said, adding that he nonetheless expects gold to reach $475 by the end of the year....

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----
Belgian
(07/13/2004; 17:34:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122983)
@968
Socrates, you keep looking at the euro (the currency) through the classical dollar currency spectacles. It is NOT about the euro as "currency" but about the euro-gold-concept that is architected with this new currency !!! All the gold-statements of the past 5 years, are induced by the very existance of that euro-gold-concept. We lived during 15 years (1980 > 1995) without any gold-statements as the reigning dollar-gold-system was in place, accepted and supported, worldwide !

The euro-concept is all about replacing the dollar goldmarket by the new euro goldmarket, wellcomed by all those, outside the US, who have (are) accumulating dollars...debt loaded credits (as all other fiat currencies) not associated in paralel with Gold Wealth.

The dollar reserve system wants you to speculate as to compensate for dollar depreciation by acquiring...more of the same dollar currency (digits). The euro concept wishes to lead you towards wealt consolidation in Gold that lives in a FreeGold euro market.

France/Germany's relatively small deficits don't matter in this concept ! How else are you going to explain the constant rise of the euro exchange rate against the dollar !?

Make (think about) the fundamental difference between a "currency" and real "universal"...UNIVERSAL *WEALTH* (Gold). The dollar has always claimed that the dollar-currency is as good as wealth. The euro will never make that same claim, not even in its most probable future function as reserve currency. One's wealth is one's Gold and everything else can impossibly be claimed as everlasting universal wealth.

It must be clear by now, when thinking about the evolving $-� exchange rate, that the euro fiat has its gold-concept silently accepted by a growing majority of non US (dollar-block) sympathisants (dollar accumulators-earners). Remember how massive concerted dollar action knocked the new born euro down by 30% against the dollar !!! How did that zeuro managed to get back on its feet and grow taller (24% above dollar parity)!? Have I put your France/Germany deficits into perspective with the factual arguments (exch. rate from minus 30% to plus 24%)!?

If the dollar can intervene in the dollar goldmarket (throug POG containment) in order to support (strengthen) the dollar exchange rate (and purchasing power)...the euro (and its outside EU supporters) can do exactly the same but in exactly the opposite way : *lower* $-POG = stronger dollar and *higher* �-POG = stronger euro !!! That's the hart of the Gold matter, Soc !

Bedtime for me. Read ya in the morning.




price
(07/13/2004; 17:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 122984)
Gold/Silver Money Bill
http://goldmoneybill.org/goldbill.htmlAristotle:

The honest structure of the bill would put a camel's nose under many deceitful tents. Its basic premise is to establish a parallel path of monetary dealing of the state with its citizens.

What state are you from? Wouldn't it be great to get eagles back at tax time?

PRice
Aristotle
(07/13/2004; 18:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 122985)
Mr. Price
Before you decide to give your good name toward championing a cause, you should really do your homework ahead of time and figure out if the cause is worthy of your good name. In this case, it most certainly isn't.

Think about the essence of "Gold" as it would exist within the monetary context of a Gold loan all within the framework of a bullion banking system. If that seems too alien, just try to visualize it all as an exact parallel to the dollar, dollar loans, and our existing commercial banking system.

If you'll give that some serious thought, I think you'll discover in that arrangement that the essence of Gold becomes disconnected from its physical reality and loses all meaning while within a monetary context.

I'm willing to go out on a limb and guess that root cause of the problem so many people have with this premise is that they are not willing to give "money" (as an intangible) enough respect in the course of their own thinking. Big mistake. Just show me one person who isn't thrilled to receive a big fat check.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Toolie
(07/13/2004; 18:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 122986)
Ari,
Please excuse me, I couldn't help but overhear you conversation with price.

I happen to think that that such a bill has some merit. If enacted it would take some physical off the market, no? It would help the good folks New Hampshire to become reacquainted real wealth, no?

I had been kicking around a similar idea. After hearing my governor complain about the effects of the high dollar on manufacturing and, the states inability to do anything about it. I then heard her pledge to do anything and everything that she could to retain as many jobs as she could in the state, yea� I'm a sucker for believing anything that come from a politician's mouth eh? My thought was to suggest that the strong dollar is really weak gold and that the dollar would be weakened if substantial physical were removed from the market place. If property taxes were payable in gold, where the value of gold was spot plus 5% this would encourage folks to hold it. The state would, at a later date, offer the gold back the public at spot. So �the state looses 5% of tax revenue for giving this idea a whirl, a lot less expensive that much of the knuckle-headed stimulus and give-aways that are offered as our economic salvation. For the record the property tax receipts in Michigan would amount to over 1000 tonnes, if all payers took advantage of the program.

Nope� it's not free gold. It's not likely to happen. But I don't think it's a bad idea.

Always appreciate you posts!
Great Albino Bat
(07/13/2004; 18:31:56 MDT - Msg ID: 122987)
Buongiorno, a late reply to your comment earlier today...

About each Mexican adopting an American and doing his work for him.

It's worse than that: both Mexicans and Americans are being adopted by Chinese and they are doing the work for them.

75% of the content of products in Mexican retail stores, is of Asiatic origin!

The Chinese are paid in uncollectable vouchers, i.e. dollars, but they are happy with that situation, for the time being. The high muckey-mucks upstairs in China must have something up their kimono sleeves, we don't know exactly what, but the surprise will not be pleasant when we find out.

In the meantime, both the industrial base of the U.S. and what there is in Mexico, is being (has been) undermined by the labor of these coolies who have adopted Mexicans and Americans.

Let us stop quibbling about trucks, for goodness sake, and concentrate on the common and enormous problem, which is: that the fiat US dollar is detroying the US itself by allowing the American people to buy everything under the sun, more cheaply abroad. Wal-Mart is just the visible consequence of this problem, which has a monetary origin.

Agreed: get your gold coins before the New Rome, the US, crumbles as a result of its "conquests".

The GAB
mikal
(07/13/2004; 20:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 122988)
Fannie may get spanked
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B277A8376%2DFDFE%2D4C5B%2D920D%2DEC619E1FF8DF%7D&siteid=mktw Fannie Mae Criticized By HEO

Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight(what will they
come up with next?) director Armando Falcon
is quoted as saying that naughty
Fannie is not cooperating in providing various vital information, and formal action will be taken to acquire it!
Gandalf the White
(07/13/2004; 22:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122989)
Calling Sir Smeagol !!! HEEEELLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOO !
The hounds are looking foreward to some more of those GOLDfish !! Are you about ? No one has seen you for a fortnight.
<;-)
Buongiorno!
(07/13/2004; 22:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 122990)
Foreign adoption agencies

@ GAB--concur your comments about the Chinese. Thank goodness they are not on our southern border!

The reason I brought up the effect of New World wealth upon the Spanish is what I percieve to be a related if not parallel situation--that being the injection of huge, unearned liquidity into our own economy. Outsourcing (and insourcing) of jobs, huge govt. programs, inability to control our borders--all, I feel, are symptoms of this massive, unearned injection of liquidity.

I know, you do not think the trucks are a problem. IMO, they, with illegal immigration, are a symptom of our desperate need to do a deal, and our inability to control things anyway. We are feckless, unwilling to either enforce existing laws, or to change them. A nation without borders may, sadly, no longer even be a real nation.

So we have debt bubbles, credit abuses, energy problems--and now the GAB informs me that I have been adopted by Chinese and Mexicans. Worse yet, he may just be correct! One thinks fondly of a golden anchor to windward....

Fire up the Peterbuilt, I gotta go!
Buongiorno!
Aristotle
(07/13/2004; 23:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 122991)
Toolie-man
Why add unnecessary layers of bureaucratic complexity on something that ought to just continue trending as it is toward elegant simplicity and systematic perfection?

I.E., Why try to wrangle an official way to use Gold to pay their taxes when it's already so nicely usable for people to "pay" their own savings and retirement plans? Is that too simple? Do Goldbugs simply revel in the adversity of a challenge?

I'd say not, otherwise I'd expect that we would see more Goldbugs rise to the occasion and accept my challenge to see the degradation of the essence of Gold as it would exist within the monetary context of a Gold loan functioning within the framework of a bullion banking system. Instead, no one attempts that bit of heavy lifting, and yet the reward for success is a BIG one.

Gold. Use it for savings. Get you some. --- Ari
Belgian
(07/14/2004; 00:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 122992)
@968 - all
Make the effort to read " America's deficit, the dollar & Gold " (Tim Congdon) at the Gilded Opinion.
The (WGC) prudently balanced study was written 2 years ago.
Today, we see that the author's projections gained a much higher (faster) probability of effectively materializing.

Ongoing evolutions were never stopped and reversed. Evolutions only gain in momentum (intensity) as time goes by. So will all the discussed Mexico/China things .
968
(07/14/2004; 01:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 122993)
@ Belgian
Goodmorning Belgian. You said yesterday "France/Germany's relatively small deficits don't matter in this concept ! How else are you going to explain the constant rise of the euro exchange rate against the dollar !?" You said Ari looked at this through dollar spectacles, but couldn't this be a look through euro spectacles ? The rise of the euro can also be seen as a dollar decline. Cfr. relatively stable �-POG against increasing $-POG, while the Swiss Francs-POG is "almost" contstant.
mikal
(07/14/2004; 01:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 122994)
SEC vote today expected to pass new proposed hedge fund oversight
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040714_46.htmlIf the vote today passes as expected, the proposed new hedge fund regulations will be open to public comment for a few months before taking effect. It would require among other things that hedge funds register with the SEC and open their books to inspection.
Caradoc
(07/14/2004; 05:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 122995)
China and silver
http://www.silver-investor.com/cs_july04.htmLonger than it needs to be, but well documented and a good historical perspective on silver flowing toward China for centuries and the implications of it having flowed in the opposite direction since 1800 or so.

Snip:
Mr. Xiaochuan, head of the Chinese central bank, is a member of a paper money mob organization loaded with Federal Reserve types, including Paul Volcker, the man who took 158 million ounces of silver away from the Hunts. Running as he does with paper money creators, they persuaded Xiaochuan to dump silver so the low COMEX price could continue to prevail. A mountain of gold and interest rate derivatives, and the dollar, are at risk if silver rises, because silver's rise would also free gold to rise!
968
(07/14/2004; 06:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 122996)
@ Aristotle - Belgian
Do you really think the � and the $ fraction have such a different agenda / are in "a competition" ? Shouldn't there be a mutual interest in coming out of the post '71-era ? IMVHO, the only one who has the (pricing power) to get the dollar out of the reserve currency function is OIL, with gold in the intermediare function. Not only European(ECB-BIS) politics !
Toolie
(07/14/2004; 06:35:12 MDT - Msg ID: 122997)
Ari,
I agree we needn't add layers of bureaucracy, we are headed toward a revaluation quickly enough to suit me. I think I'll just hitch a ride.

Yes, gold within a monetary context of gold loans would be less desirable for today's goldbug, who wants to see the greatest possible appreciation. The problems that I see are these: What mechanism would prevent forward sales in is free gold regime? If oil should ever demand payment in gold, how can a fiat currency possibly hope to account for the oil that has gone into the production of goods and services?
Clink!
(07/14/2004; 07:07:03 MDT - Msg ID: 122998)
Another 'End of cheap xxxx' story ?
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1557We've talked a lot here about the end of cheap gold and cheap oil. Here is another one that has only been briefly touched upon, but appears to be a trainwreck further down the track. The article discusses the South Western USA, but I see the same sort of politically-induced water wastage in Florida, where chronic shortages are ignored in the lust to build new suburban subdivisions (which are a long way from the owners' places of work and very energy inefficient, but don't get me started .....)
There were two phrases that really jumped out at me :-
Snip1 :
"To put it in a way that Austrians would understand, government policies have resulted in malinvested resources and development that cannot be sustained. As in Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which stresses that recovery cannot begin until the malinvested capital has been liquidated, the American West cannot begin to see true "sustainable" development until new policies are implemented."

C! Ah, yes, the refusal, for short-term political gain, to face reality.

Snip2 : "this ridiculous saga may very well come to an end precisely because the government cannot create that which does not exist."

C! Now how many other things can you think of that could fit this description !


Clink!
(07/14/2004; 07:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 122999)
This one slipped quietly by .....
http://www.freebuck.com/articles/guest/040705guest.htm... but may make more of a ruckus later this year and next.

I haven't seen any mention of this at the forum (or anywhere else except today's Mogambo), but, as the Guru says, one has to ask the question "Why now ?"

Snip

On June 23, 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) changed the rules regulating short sales. Until now, it has been illegal to sell a stock short unless it was sold on an uptick. This was the result of Regulation SHO, which was created by the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This is a major change in the philosophy of the SEC. The new Regulation SHO will allow short sales without waiting for an uptick. Since the founding of the SEC in 1934, their philosophy has been to discourage the selling of equities. Short sales have been portrayed as a demonic instrument that will destroy America. It is interesting that the SEC never made a purchase subject to a downtick rule. One could state that the SEC created the "Buy and Hold" mantra that the mutual fund industry is based upon. Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said "There are no accidents in history" An interesting statement when you realize that FDR created the socialist system that is now collapsing.

The new Regulation SHO will take effect on January 3, 2005.

C!
Belgian
(07/14/2004; 08:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123000)
@968
The dollar will and shall lose its reserve status due to its debt-driven expansion and systemic deficit that is permanent.
Yes, the euro and the dollar are definitely different, because of their opposite relationship towards the Goldreserve(s).
I don't see any kind of possible alternative or compromise between the 2 or 3 major currencies (dollar-yen-euro).

The fact that nothing financial-monetary-economical, is actually "crashing"...is nothing else but a gigantic deceptive smokescreen. It produces (purposely) the illusion that all will come right in time !? I'm NOT buying this, Socrates. Definitely not. This maskerade cannot go on for ever. Interventionist manipulation has its natural limits. And we have been pushing those limits, extremely far. For one single purpose only...to extend the planet's dollar-reserve-system as long as possible.

A rising dollar will make the twin deficits bigger and a declining dollar will bring devastating (hyper) inflation. W've come to the point where there is nothing in between those two extremes, anymore. The economic $-order of our planet has shifted, Soc ! One cannot be a little bit pregnant...

Druid
(07/14/2004; 08:32:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123001)
Back to the Garden
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO_07_04.htm
"The commonsensical explanation as to why, revolves around the observation that debt as opposed to equity requires an obligation to pay � principal at maturity, interest periodically � and when there's too much of it the burden can be crushing if yields rise for geopolitical, policy mistake, or other imaginable reasons � one as simple as higher inflation for instance. In addition, problems arise when the maturity or distribution of the debt becomes imbalanced. Too much short-term as opposed to funded long-term debt has caused many a personal, corporate, and in some cases sovereign bankruptcy. And debt in the hands of benevolent instead of self-interested creditors can be crucial. Americans used to placate themselves with the adage that "we owe it to ourselves" when confronted with mounting public deficits. Such was the case in the 30s, the burden of which was rather anemically molted away by subsequent inflation in the midst of interest rate ceilings imposed during WWII and its aftermath. But when over 50% of outstanding Federal debt is held by foreign creditors, then the rules of the game can change. Global current account imbalances reflected in our ongoing 5% of GDP trade deficit speak to dollar depreciation as a legitimate response to placate foreign creditors in need of a higher currency adjusted return on their "investments." And if that dollar depreciation is significant, swift � or both � then economic and financial repercussions can follow a similar path.



The consequences of higher interest rates mentioned above can be destabilizing as well. It's sobering to contemplate that not only has our current cyclical prosperity been due to the "productivity" of lower interest rates in a finance-based, debt-laden economy, but that the reversal of yields must be more than delicately manipulated in order to prevent reciprocal damage and global economic instability. I use the term global in this context more than figuratively. The reality is that almost all the world's significant central banks save the ECB have begun or are in the process of monetary policy reversal and many do so within an environment fraught with substantial debt and therefore risk. England's Monetary Policy Committee is already on the march upward in an effect to cool speculative housing appreciation. With home prices ultra-sensitive to short-term rates, however, they could go too high or stay too low, with their domestic economy swaying in the balance. Japan is contemplating an exit from their ZRP or Zero Interest Rate Policy. Talk about a foggy horizon! With so much government debt held by so many domestics banks and insurance companies, their central bank could technically bankrupt their own financial sector by too precipitous a move which would sink JGB prices and asset valuations at these institutions. Japan's new friendly neighbor to the west � China � has a pickle with their own short-term rates and eventual revaluation of the RMB vs. the dollar. China's banks themselves have an excess of low quality loans supported by a thin thread of mercurial equity. And then there's the Fed. Wednesday's interest rate hike is just the beginning of a journey as to who knows where or when. Not only our housing market, but the financed-based profits (40% of all profits as shown below) of American corporations are at risk. This in turn speaks to the stock market, P/E ratios, and wealth/paper-based prosperity, that depend on the continued low cost of excessive debt taken on in recent years."

Druid: Excellent commentary and analysis with graphs to go with it.

TownCrier
(07/14/2004; 11:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 123002)
The Fed is pumping cash and how
Yesterday in addition to temporary reserve operations, the Federal Reserve entered the open market to buy Treasuries outright once again for its own account -- a coupon pass to the tune of $400 million which now appears as merely a practice run for today's main event.

The Fed's NY Trading desk has again this morning intervened in the open market for the purpose of buying Treasuries on behalf of the System's account, a coupon pass that injected $1.898 billion in fresh "high-powered" cash directly into the reserves of the nation's commercial banking system. That's the biggest "permanent" add I've seen in memory.

Note: for the new-comers, the term "high-powered" money refers to the phenomenon of fractional reserve banking. This newly created money by the Federal Reserve, now that it has freshly hit the commercial banking accounts of the instititutions from which it bought today's Treasury coupons, acts as an addition to the foundation (or monetary base) upon which the money supply can be further expanded by the commercial banks' regular lending practices.

There is no practical limit to the amount of money that can be thus injected, and the consequence of prolific money-creation beyond the needs of a growing economy is inflation of prices, a depreciation of the currency's purchasing power.

R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/14/2004; 11:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123003)
You don't have to stand idly by as inflationary trends plunder you down to the bones
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TownCrier
(07/14/2004; 11:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123004)
See the big picture
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - The dollar stumbled against the euro on Wednesday after a report on U.S. retail sales showed consumer spending slowing, which analysts said would keep the Federal Reserve on a path of restrained interest rate hikes.

Randy's note: And it is on top of this stagnation that we see the Federal Reserve buying Treasuries and injecting new waves of money into the system.
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If you're new to this realm, take your next step toward financial sovereignty and make your request to have a free info packet mailed to you today!

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TownCrier
(07/14/2004; 11:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123005)
Passing the buck
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040714/ap_on_re_us/east_coast_flooding_13MEDFORD, N.J. - Residents in the Northeast braced for more heavy rain and flooding after some towns were hit with what meteorologists called once-in-a-lifetime storms.

...On Tuesday, Gov. James E. McGreevey called a state of emergency in two counties and lawmakers asked President Bush to declare portions of southern New Jersey a federal disaster area.

...The storm dumped over 13 inches of rain in a 12-hour period in Burlington County, located in southern New Jersey. It was classified as a 1,000 year storm, the National Weather Service said.

-----(from url)----

That's really an incredible event. As unrelated to economics as it might appear to be, I mention it here only because "the buck" quickly gets passed to the federal level in events like this, and it further strains the budget with either a need for additional taxation or else further deficit financing. You can already guess which method is chosen to deal with this sort of thing.

The insidious depreciation of its currency is the indirect means in which a society often pays the bills which it would rather not pay through direct taxation.

How is a saver to protect his wealth over time? He can either spend lots of time and worry trying to gamble with his savings to stay ahead of the game, or he can simply choose gold and then get on with the more important business of life.

R.
R Powell
(07/14/2004; 12:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123006)
A little light reading........

6 new document(s) found since 28.06.2004:

1. Philipp Hildebrand: The new investment policy of the Swiss National Bank (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:48)
Introductory remarks by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the half-yearly media news conference, Geneva, 17 June 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040712c.pdf (PDF, 39676 bytes)

...Bank only had limited possibilities for managing its assets. Monetary reserves were mainly held in the form of gold and foreign-currency government bonds with a maturity of less than one year. Accounting for approximately 80%, the...

2. Klaus Liebscher: The importance of the Bretton Woods institutions for small countries (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:50)
Opening address by Dr Klaus Liebscher, Governor of the Austrian National Bank, at the Conference on �60 Years of Bretton Woods - governance of the international financial system - looking ahead�, Vienna, 21 June 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040713b.pdf (PDF, 66665 bytes)

...to quotas rather than on a one-state, one-vote basis. The first major systemic crisis - the breakdown of both the gold exchange standard and the par value system of the original Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s - was...

3. Eva Srejber: What role do asset prices and credit play in monetary policy (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:49)
Speech by Ms Eva Srejber, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at The Adam Smith Seminars, Thun, Switzerland, 30 June 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040713h.pdf (PDF, 92136 bytes)

...countries. Unemployment fell, growth was robust and inflation was low. The US currency, which in turn was pegged to gold, served during the period as an anchor for inflation and exchange rates in mainly western Europe, where the...

4. Toshihiko Fukui: The centenary of the Bank of Japan's London office (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:52)
Speech by Mr Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the reception for the centenary of the Bank of Japan Representative Office in London, 29 June 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040714c.pdf (PDF, 30308 bytes)

...how large the proceeds of Japanese government bond issuance. The total amount was more than double the amount of the gold reserves of the Bank of England. The second example is the scheme for credit facility that was made available...

5. Zhou Xiaochuan: Some issues concerning the reform of the state-owned commercial banks (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:51)
Speech by Mr Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People�s Bank of China, at the IIF Spring Membership Conference, Shanghai, 16 April 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040714g.pdf (PDF, 79534 bytes)

...ways, two pilot reform banks will write off basically all historical loan losses. Third, some foreign exchange and gold reserves were used to recapitalize the state-owned commercial banks. It should be noted that recapitalization...

6. T T Mboweni: The foundation has been laid (Central Bank Articles and Speeches) (14.07.2004 14:51)
Speech by Mr T T Mboweni, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the BMF Corporate Update Gala Dinner, Gallagher Estate, 18 June 2004.
http://www.bis.org/review/r040714e.pdf (PDF, 68912 bytes)

...amount of new money would be supplied to the system; to maintain positive real interest rates; to increase the gold and other foreign reserves to a comfortable level and to develop a sound financial infrastructure consisting of...
R Powell
(07/14/2004; 12:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123007)
Druid...Back to the Garden
This prints out at four pages and, imho, is worth the printing. Gross has summerized a great deal, very clearly, in a well-written short essay.

Good heads up on this one...it's enough to make one think of purchasing more gold...paper and physical..(;> ...thanks Druid...
rich
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/14/2004; 13:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 123008)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- closing market excerpts ---

Gold for August delivery rose by $3.30 to close at $405.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange...

Weaker U.S. retail sales are "just another in a series of economic statistics of late that suggest the economy is not a ball of fire and in fact may be weakening yet again," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter....

"This has allowed the secular bear market in the U.S. dollar to move to the forefront again, which can only enhance the bullish case for gold and commodities in general," he added.

Volatility is likely to continue in gold "until something definitive happens in the world to force the yellow metal to either relax or spike much higher," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest Market Edge...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----

--ASSORTED HEADLINES--

Stocks Head Lower on Retail Sales News -- ABC News

U.S. Treasury says likely to hit debt limit in Oct -- Reuters - Bonds News

Retail Sales Sink 1.1 Percent -- Fox Arkansas - Money/Business

Derivatives mart gets a whiff of bearish days -- The Business Standard

Dollar dips vs euro, US data confirm measured Fed -- UBS Warburg

U.S. Treasuries slip despite weak retail sales -- Borsa Italiana - News
eccentricventures
(07/14/2004; 13:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123009)
(No Subject)
TownCrier (07/14/04; 11:51:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 123005)
Passing the buck
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040714/ap_on_re_us/east_coast_flooding_13
MEDFORD, N.J. - Residents in the Northeast braced for more heavy rain and flooding after some towns were hit with what meteorologists called once-in-a-lifetime storms.

...On Tuesday, Gov. James E. McGreevey called a state of emergency in two counties and lawmakers asked President Bush to declare portions of southern New Jersey a federal disaster area.

...The storm dumped over 13 inches of rain in a 12-hour period in Burlington County, located in southern New Jersey. It was classified as a 1,000 year storm, the National Weather Service said.
------------------------------------------------------------
I live in Delaware and we got hammered by the same storm. We had a once in a lifetime "Storm of the Century" last year which caused flooding in my area where it had never flooded in recorded history. Its in large part due to overdeveolpment and missuse of land. (Thank your local government and greedy developers). The area in and around northern Delaware is so over developed when it rains there is no place for the ground to absorb it. What was until recently a largely agricultural area is now covered over with asphalt and concrete. The water sluiced through the rivers and creeks in our county causing major damage. There will be more of this in the future.
Aristotle
(07/14/2004; 14:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123010)
This could be fruitful. An analogy dedicated to my two favorite gardeners, FOA and Belg-man
Are there any biological science types out there who understand the concept of a climax community in which we see the final stage of a region's ecological development/evolution whereby a distinct community of organisms reach sustainable harmony with the region's characteristics such as soil-type and climate?

A classic example is where a forest fire has swept the ecological slate clean, in a sense, and various little green critters start to repopulate the area in a fairly predictable evolutionary progression. It usually starts with the most prolific growth of annuals (that nicely stabilize the blackened and barren soil,) which are later crowded out by hardier perennials and shrubs which themselves are eventually checked by the reestablishment of taller trees (of the kind best-suited to the area) that win the arms race for available sunlight with their insurmountable canopy, leaving little green critters of the forest floor to those types who can best survive in the dim and dappled light that penetrates through.

This latter-stage, fully-developed and stable regime of contentedly coexisting species of plants is what is known as the climax community.

The key point is to be aware that this most perfectly-suited arrangement doesn't arrive intact all at once, nor does it arrive as the first thing out of the starting gate. There is a systematic progression toward this example of ecological perfection.

And so it is in the economic community of mankind. That is to say, we are still on the development path toward a more perfect and sustainable ordering of affairs. The monetary evolution that I have been endeavoring to describe (being the least of peers alongside intellectual giants like FOA, Belgian, and Miner) is very much akin to the progression toward an ecological climax community. That is, there are arrangements and associations along the way that are suitable at an early stage, but ultimately must yield the way as they are crowded out by a more perfect arrangement, perhaps returning again at a later stage but in a markedly different capacity and association.

And so it is with the interplay of Gold and money in the banking system, ever shifting and evolving from one arrangement into something new and better suited to the overgrazing tendencies of the growing herds of mankind.

On these sunny hillsides of the economic world populated by modern man, the monetary "climax community" is foreseen as one in which FreeGold grows to the sky as the sturdy perennial wealth, meanwhile the ground level is populated by a lush grassy covering of fiat green for the herds to graze, trample, and poop upon according to their social whims.

Gold. Get you a grove while still as affordable saplings. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(07/14/2004; 15:38:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123011)
Toolie-man, "What mechanism...?"
Human/social will, of course! It's the only force that really matters.

Nothing heavy-handed or draconian is required. Imagine a semi-enlightened population that can one day understand the difference between bedrock WealthPropertyGold in hand and the alluvial sands of BankingMoneyCurrency on account.

Do you think that population, or more correctly, it's equally enlightened representative government officials will, to begin with, forever stand still for the papering-over of Gold's physical value? Secondary, with Gold ascendant, do you think an enlightened population and its government will be tolerant of the *unnecessary* systemic risk posed by the *unnecessary* financial regime that deals in Gold derivatives? Why tolerate having the nation's stock of Gold reserves ever at risk of depletion through exposure to "lender of last resort" duties for the potential financial system salvation due an associated commericial bullion banking scheme gone awry?

Derivative operations like forward sales can be stifled simply by assuring the would-be Recipient side of the deal that they are "participating at their own peril -- Caveat Emptor!" That for any Gold-related contract they'll have no recourse through the court system to try to make good on a promised delivery that fails to materialize.

That's just an example off the top of my head. I'm sure you can come up with others.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Belgian
(07/14/2004; 15:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123012)
Ari....
Before going to bed...one more little detail, probably an insignificant one, but nevertheless worth to communicate :
Goldmine-prices "used" to anticipate the altering dollar/Gold relationship ($-POG). This "seems" to happen less smoothly (evidently) at present, as observed by some (slightly worrying ) goldminebugs !? $-POG seems to be tighly glued to the narrow range moving dollar exchange rate. A kind of behavior that breeds some suspicion if this should continue for some more considerable time. Funny that the rand refuses to oxygenate the needed profitability boost for S-African goldmining !?

We often seem to forget that the interventionist manipulation of the $-POG, results in indirect control of Gold supply from mining !
Bizar, the more that it is generally accepted that there is a deficit in yearly gold supply for quite some consecutive years now.

This "seems" to be a very subtle maneuvering as to put goldmining into the service of VERY important, VITAL Gold commitments. Underground Gold for cheap oil-flow, for instance.

The POO raced above $41, today...whilst its '99 low was $10$. The goldminers lost their autonomy (pricing-power) completely and are at the mercy of the Goldprice interventionists !!! This in sharp contrast with those who are holding the remaining oilreserves.

Funny that nobody ever reflects on the key issue of Gold for oil !?
Goodnight Ari.
Noble1
(07/14/2004; 17:19:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123013)
Aristotle #123010
WOW!!! I don't know whether your thoughts are from brilliance or from smoking something. Perhaps, at times, it can be one in the same. But, being a major in biology and minoring in chemistry, the analogy, for me, is nothing less than profound!!! Suitable. Enjoyable. Applicable. Makes you think. That's what this forum is all about. How do you come up with something like
this? Keep up the good work and please continue your contributions.

Remember: Gold hath no equal.

Noble1
MK
(07/14/2004; 17:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123014)
My Weekly E-Mail Newsletter
Just a short note to mention that current clients interested in receiving my views on the gold market via e-mail should contact Jill either by e-mail or telephone to make sure we have your current e-mail address on file.

The new letter will be available to our current clientele only plus a small number of prospective clients, and by e-mail only. Prospective clients will drop off the list on a first-in, first out-basis with the most recent at the top of the list.

If you became a client by first requesting an information packet through this website, we probably have your e-mail on file (assuming you haven't changed it). If there's any doubt, please contact Jill to make sure you receive my gold reports. We have also curtailed the hard-copy letter except as a one-time mailing to prospective clients because of the costs involved.

Those suffering from News & Views withdrawal symptoms and uncertain of their standing, please contact Jill Snyder at:

jill@usagold.com

or

1-800-869-5115 Extension #104

Jill is in Tuesday and Thursday only or you can leave a phone message if you wish anytime.

Thank you.

melda laure
(07/14/2004; 17:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123015)
Maybe I shoulda never left the home country....
Ari, if there has ever been a climax community I have never seen it. The trees finally grow and a century later, the Indians move in and burn it to make room for more grazing animals. Then a couple decades later, a mess of beavers move in and develop more meadows and other swampy places.

There are few wild places in the lands of the west that are not actively managed by "someone", (even if that someone doesn't put up fence posts and billboards, nor even linger around 365 days a year)

As to sustainable development, Mr Clink! (#122998) I saw it in the west. The year was 1491 and there were A LOT fewer golf courses.

The problem is NOT the level of resources, nor is it in finding a new technology to allow us to use the existing resources more efficently (we could all install sonic showers, grow less salad and go to closed loop wastewater treatment).

The problem is always a moral one. Can we live within limits? How is that limit priced? The wise live with great surplusses, they are called savings, or "margin of safety", though in this last two hundred years I have more often heard them called "untapped resources" or "waste". It allows you to be generous, when called for. Those less informed always live at the limit, or in debt.

How close to the cliff edge should you build? Hmmm. It is not an engineering question! I do not ask how close CAN you build; and THAT is the distinction. Of course with a government affixing the price tags the situation becomes a complete basket case. Yet I still fear the day that we solve our water and energy problems- because in that day, having no more limits, we will destroy ourselves if we have not by then learnt self control.

The real issue of property rights is not do we respect them among ourselves, but will we respect the property rights of other nations? Do we look at somebody ELSE's forest as theirs to manage, or do we complain that they dont allow logging? Do we allow goofy nations to choose their third world poverty and lack of "development" or do we insist that they create export markets to provide us trinkets.

Snip:
"While the Times portrays the federal government as the ultimate savior in this growing mess, history tells us otherwise. The American West faces severe water shortages because of U.S. Government policies of this past century; the solution is not for the government to further assert itself, but rather to end the water socialism that it has imposed. The command system of economics that has led nations like North Korea and Cuba into ruin has also created the crisis in the West."

Yes private domains are a fine thing. Too bad we subvert the process with IMF funny money (or judicious invasions). It's also too bad that sustainable management is a habit only practiced by hobbits and backward stone-age third world nations. I have spent a couple millenia wondering why some of us (wont mention names) just refuse to be a part of the ecosystem like every other species. Was it just the funny money? Or was it some religious misperception?

Free gold will help, but it's only the beginning
slingshot
(07/14/2004; 18:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123016)
The Prophecy of Oro
The group of four was early to rise and on their way to Hammerton. The weather was clear with warm days and cool nights. A travelers dream amoung good company. The camp fires was small as to not draw attention. Bandit would watch Gandalf blow smoke rings through each other forming a cone as each ring was smaller and farther away from the last.
"What is on your mind, good Wizard", asked Bandit.
Gandalf looked over towards Bandit and blowing another perfect smoke ring into the air.
"Many things, good and bad", answered Gandalf.
"This one is going to be really bad" said Bandit.
"What makes you say this?",Gandalf could see he was not going to let this go.
"Your smoke rings are undisturbed by the gentle evening air"."Your thoughts are deep", and the gentle giant smile.
"We will know more when we reach Hammerton", said Gandalf.
The next day they reached Hammerton and passing along the streets were greeted by the towns people. Not stopping they went to the burial mound of the creature. They could see the movement of the ground and the stones were not as Gandalf had had them placed.
Moving to the center ring, the four stayed close together. The grass had turned brown and in some places only barren dirt shown.
Some towns people watched them but never entered the grave of the creature.
Late afternoon came and passed and Cougar, Bandit and Sir Misetich, patiently awaited something with Gandalf.
Gandalf turned to Sir Misetich, "Soon,very soon"
The sun began to set and the temperature dropped, accompanied by a swift wind.
Then like a lightning bolt,it came upon them. Energy form within the earth had entered all and images filled their minds. They could see the Army of Darkness mobilizing. A leader on a mountainside balcony. A sword and a burning black pool. Dark figures in the shadows.
As quickly as it came ,it left them. Gandalf began to speak as the others were still slightly stunned.
"As I feared they are coming and it will not be over till they crush us and take all. This time, we will have to defend what we have. Let's hope Sir Oro, has what we need to save us."
They left the circle of stones and as they crossed the area Cougar and Bandit were just jabbering away at what they had just experienced. Sir Misetich asked as they walked to their horses.
"Gandalf, Do you know where can find, Sir Oro?".
Slingshot------------<>

Boilermaker
(07/14/2004; 19:00:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123017)
Evolution
After reading some excellent posts today from Ari, Belgian, Clink, Rich and others I recalled when I first felt my own attraction to gold. It was 1987 and the US budget deficit was reaching new records. Somehow I equated this debt as a marker for future economic decline and depreciation of the dollar.
Now I have learned that the dollar is debt and that it is the antithesis of gold. Gold is the antichrist to fiat bankers and political vote buyers. The dollar climax is near. Like an aging diseased tree in Ari's forest it will topple to allow a more durable species room for growth.
Just as disillusioned Europeans brought forth this great new nation, enlightened Europeans have brought forth an alternative to its now corrupt monetary unit.
Smeagol
(07/14/2004; 19:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123018)
...sss... we're bAAAaaack...
...aaaahhhh...., yess... a nice long sstay in the mountains does a body good, eh, precious? Sets the mind right... too bad we didn't find any of It out there...O, well, but we know where It can be found, eh?... sspeaking of that, let us see what has been happening at the Casstle while we were away... (read, read, read) ach! This is going to take HOURS to catch up on... (read)... sigh... there is jusst soo much here... Russia amd Madagascar, yaiow... (read)... precious, is this place not truly priceless? We wishes we could have the entire ssite on paper for reference when 'TSHTF', as they ssay... hmm, looks like the Hounds got into the Gold-fissh we left, un-watched... and they have a belly-ache now, hmm?... they'll get over it ssoon enough... eh, what's this?

!!!!!
We won a Honorable Mention Silver Precious for our Essay?!!(...stunned shock...)

Surely there were better ones than ours, leasstwise we thinks... because we did read them ALL, precious... ssuch heady draughts of thought and information always makes our head hurt... we feels sorry for the Judges! Ai, what a tassk! Our heart goes out to them. Congratulations to the Contesst Winners, and a big Thank You to the USAGOLD Casstle Hossts! O happy Silver day!!

TownCrier (7/8/04; 12:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 122867)
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/07/08/002.html
..."The banking crisis is like a little bushfire that could become a huge forest fire. If people lose confidence and pull out their savings, the Russian banking system could collapse," he said, rapping the Central Bank for not managing the crisis better. "That's why Western systems have crisis management systems in place."

S. (CACKLE!).... O that lasst line, now THAT's funny, precious...esspecially the more you think about it!

S.
Goldendome
(07/14/2004; 21:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123019)
The window washer's inflation index:

An antidotal tale to assist in filling a hot, languid evening.
----------------------------------------------------


What new official inflation decree will be uttered from the marbled halls, or hall of marbles, on Friday, is unknown-- only known, as surely much lower than any actual living being is experiencing. However, the whispered number seems to be "5%" on a yearly adjusted basis.

5%? Small potatoes! I found this week that the window washers inflation index is running at nearly 100%! Here's how I found this out: Early in 2003, a fella I know washes windows gave me a bid of $35. to do my windows inside and out (monthly). Pretty good sounding price, but being the cheap S.O.B. that I've come to have to admit to being, I passed on the deal....Until this past week.

Then being tired from the summer painting and the roofing work, I thought: "Think I'll give this fella a call and see if the deal's still good."

"Oh! No-can-do," says he. "What with the price of gas and insurance, and food and things, I just can't. But I'll stop by next week with the new prices."

So, true enough, he stopped by this week with the new monthly contract that called for $75.00 per visit. "Gosh, that's quite an increase." I said.

"Well--you know how it is," he says.
Well, actually, I could see how it is. For with him, was his new "hottie"... and I'm sure he's having to keep her in rubber duckies--so, I think that's were a lot of the new money's going.

I decided, "ix-nay", to the new contract and today got off my tired derriere and washed all the windows myself...one of those pride of ownership things again.

And then I got to thinking...you know Goldendome, you just cost the GDP of the nation $75 by doing that yourself. Plus, the .078 percent sales tax that would be paid on top of that, here in the great state. And-- plus more, the poor gent is out $75., and his SSI program suffers, and the new hottie? misses a fudge.
968
(07/15/2004; 00:39:55 MDT - Msg ID: 123020)
@ All / CPM
Goodmorning all ! Does anyone here has statistics about the annual private investment demand in gold over the years ? Do our fine hosts here at CPM see a rise in the private demand for gold ?
Smoochie
(07/15/2004; 02:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123021)
CHINESE GOLD DEMAND FIGURES' FRAUD
14 07 2004
"People's Daily Online" www.thebulliondesk.com
" In Guangdong Province,one of China's economic powerhouses, 140 tonnes of gold were sold last year, ......."
STAGGERING!!!!!!! In just one poxy Chinese province!!!!!!! And we are supposed to believe that total Chinese consumption of gold is only 200 tonnes per annum (official figures). Don't you think it a bit strange that officially Chinese demand for gold has been static at about 200 tonnes per annum since 1992 during a mega boom of the economy and jewelry production!!!!
Well, think about it. If the cabal wants to keep down the price of gold, the first thing you do is rig Chinese consumption figures.Similarly I don't believe for a moment that China only consumes 50 million ounces of SILVER per annum when the USA with only one fifth of the Chinese population consumes 240 million ounces of silver per annum..
Also, this gives the Chinese Central Bank more time to accumulate gold,currently it is accumulating about 200tonnes p.a.
So what are Chinese real gold demand figures p.a.? Probably at least 600 tonnes p.a. (including Chinese Central Bank). And silver, probably in excess of 150 million ounces p.a.
Natural follow-on from heavily rigging US inflation figures and then suppressing the gold price with paper gold.What could be more logical?
Belgian
(07/15/2004; 04:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123022)
968 - Smoochie
At last...THE QUESTION...WHERE IS ALL THE GOLD GOING !?
I stopped paying any attention to any Goldflow-statistic !
Including the statistics from the China Gold Association.

For the very simple reason that the bulk of the PHYSICAL Gold-flows are "directed" (guided) to the specific "demanding" hands ! That is the task of the Gold-cartel, that in contrast to the oil-cartel, must remain absolutely invisible...untraceable.

And since the globe has clear cut evidence (again) about how unmoved, world leaders can bluntly lie...we shouldn't be surprised at all about deceptive-misleading Gold statistics, also being of enormous strategic importance !

The established Gold cartel has an old fine mixing instrument helping them to conveniently and constantly boil Gold statistics according to circumstances: jewelry and investment Gold !!! The very same circus happens with oil-reserves. Permanent falsifications as a much needed deceptive smokescreen. Sort of WMDeception that always existed.

Just imagine the possible gigantic consequences, if and when the general public should be informed about the evidence of the Gold for oil-flow !!! The immediate result would be the instant un-availability of Physical Gold !!!
These Gold for oil-flows have been organized in many different subtle ways ! Can one expect real statistics on such a "vital" matter of "global" importance !?

These things don't happen exclusively with Gold by with many other items of strategic importance. Without statistics, of course.

And in order to add to the statistical confusion, papergold commitments make the whole thing completely un-transparent.
The combination of a gestapo-like media machine and an infantilizised general public, results in never asking (or answering) the WHY-question on all those supposed (EU-others) CB goldsales and successive conflicting Gold-statements !!! Socrates...and in this context, you are asking for Gold statistics !? Smile brother...give us a huge smile as sign of understanding.

The biggest mistake that we are making here at this unique forum is that we don't form (construct-assembling) the big picture out of the large amount of facts we are re-producing. You started this new day with the productive initiative of a good (thought provoking) question on wich I try to reflect as good as I can.

The media, and in our case, the gold-cartel have the unwritten function to distract the general public from real cohesive understanding ! It is only two generations later (=50 years) that the truths are publicly revealed somewhat closer to what "was" really going on. So will it also be with what was (is) happening with Gold on a global scale since 1971 !

Our interests are trying to guess that Gold truth, as close as possible, NOW...as to argument our anticipation. A normal dosis of healthy egoism is quite natural, isn't it ?

Today, OPEC feels (again) uneasy about finding another explanation (for public consumption) and appropiate action for the $-POO rise. $-POO a bit down, euro-POG steady.

The relationship (proportional price-evolution) between euro-dollar-oil-gold, becomes more and more in lockstep (in concert) and predictable (systemic). That IS a dramatic change from the 3 decades past and positive evidence for the coming Gold revaluation within Another goldmarket.

There's a brilliant article at the neighbours from the kicking donkey...brilliant synthesis with high value for projections on the very possible global future. Bravo to this man's insights.

@Boilermaker : The last sentence of your latest post contains a lot of optimism (my believe) for the future...after THE transition. Good insight, Sir.
968
(07/15/2004; 05:34:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123023)
@ Belgian
Hello in there in rainy Belgium. Thanks for your great reply on the private gold demand question. Another question : Some weeks ago French Finance Secretary Sarkozy attacked the ECB that their primary goal shouldn't be price stability, but also building on economic growth. Today French President Chirac does the same. In what context should we see this ?
Sundeck
(07/15/2004; 05:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123024)
1.3 billion new Chinese cars � and soaring gold
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39452Snip:

"...
Barring the fabled discovery of a free energy source, oil has no place to go but up. And that's just focusing on the energy appetites of the Asian nations. It's not factoring in the shaky state of the Saudi oil producers and the Middle East in general.

"A major crisis could well be a lot closer than many people believe possible. Saudi Arabia is in a perilous state in terms of political stability, and the price of oil, which has been steadily rising for a long time, is in position to spike. And I don't mean by $10. It could go to, say, $80, maybe $100, in the event of a massive terrorist attack in Arabia. Historically, gold and oil have tended to move in tandem, and a crisis of the proportions I am talking about could well result in a spike in gold too, to, say, $500 - $600, perhaps more," wrote German analyst Clive Maund.

He's dead on. Oil and gold have historically moved in tandem. In fact, analysts have long recognized the gold-to-oil ratio. Since 1965, that ratio has been 15.4. Today, however, it is way out of line at 11.1. And that's the best it's been in a while.

At $36 a barrel, gold should historically be $554.40, according to the ratio � instead of the $401 it is at this writing.

"Any way you want to slice it, in light of gold's historical relationship to oil, gold is way undervalued. Gold is significantly lagging the oil bull and will almost certainly catch up sooner or later here to bring this key gold-to-oil ratio back in line," wrote Hamilton.
..."

Sundeck: A bit of light reading on a pleasant subject...

:-)
Belgian
(07/15/2004; 07:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123025)
Russia within the oil-$-�-Gold equation....
Two main facts : Russian oil/gas-reserves are definitely under-estimated, today. Russian (non-OPEC) oil production equals Saudi Arabia (9+mbpd).

Russian resources (reserves) are going to count on the world stage for quite some time. We will never have any reliable statistics on the Gold flows to-and-through Russia.
But Russian energysale profits go definitely for the euro and Euroland trade.

Putin will further receive external support for as long as he can prevent Russian resource-wealth to be plundered by oligarchs. For the time being, there is no counterforce for the growing autonomy/hegemony (pricing power) of the oilreserves of the ME. This is a big dollar-negative...gradual loss of its oil backing as its remaining intrinsic worth !!!

The planners of the "new" goldmarket are in a comfortable position.
Socrates964
(07/15/2004; 08:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123026)
Belgian
Greetings Belgian,

thought I'd drop in. Unfortunately, my lack of posts seems to have persuaded you that I'm 968. This is not actually the case, although I'm sure his/her posts stand on their own merits.

Anyway, I'm intrigued by goings on 'Outre Manche' and would be interested in your comments:

Firstly, Authentic Money claims that Chancellor Gordon 'I shall touch the Euro with the ten foot pole of prrudence, but not yet' Brown has been shut out of gold discussions. Is this a deliberate snub or just an automatic consequence of not signing up to WA2 (see link below)?

vide:

Chancellor Brown did not suggest the actual sale of gold by the I.M.F. just the revaluation of their gold. With the valuation of Gold at around $40 an ounce, by the I.M.F. he highlighted an archaic issue at the I.M.F. that has lain �dormant for decades and should be addressed. The valuation stems from the Articles governing the I.M.F. Chancellor Brown, a man who would have been wiser to have stayed quiet on the issue, given his complete failure in handling U.K. gold reserves, highlighted this pertinent issue at the I.M.F. His anti-gold stance is a matter of record and one that has resulted in his exclusion from the present discussions on gold currently taking place amongst Eurozone Bankers.

He will have no part in these discussions which cover the handling of Eurozone gold. The U.K. relinquishes its part in European gold sales when the "Washington Agreement" expires in September They were absent from the "2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement", which commences in September of this year. Was that because the Eurozone Bankers hold a different view to his on gold's role as a reserve asset? - Likely so!"

Then the former governor of the BoE, Eddie George is appointed a non-exec director of Rothschilds. You'll evidently remember him throwing half Britain's gold into the abyss like something out of Lord of the Rings.

Since the British Establishment tends to have the good grace to wait for their payoffs until they leave office, then if we assume that this is payment for services rendered, then what were the services?

It has been speculated that NMR pulled out of the gold fix because they wanted to have a free hand to play the market for themselves, but how easy is it to find a seller in size at the bottom of the market? Just 'les �lucubrations de Socrate, qui, comme toujours, ne sait rien'.
Belgian
(07/15/2004; 08:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 123027)
@986 @Sundeck
In two words, Socrates : < political hypocrisy >
For the time being, National politicians can still hide (excuse) the problems behind the European curtain (ivory towers). We are very reluctant to actively develop a high (higher) degree of (dangerous) Euro-Nationalism (patriotism) for obvious (historical) reasons. A convenient context (pretext) anyway. The building of Euroland is a very complex affair and the head winds from our (former-?)AngloAmerican allies are not of a nature to make things easier, smoothier, faster...
But Schroder is having a political (!) summit with (whitewashed) Tony, today.

Sundeck : Many, non islamic fundamentalists (A.Q. & Co), are having wet dreams about the chances of increasing unstability in Saudi Arabia ! Remain critical on all forms of subtle perception building, serving specific purposes.
Yep, indeed...a very difficult matter for us as shrimpy observers and aspirant amateur conclusion builders.
Those who saw rivalry often reap storms...or something like that.
Socrates964
(07/15/2004; 08:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123028)
Belgian

This may amuse you, in case you didn't already know...

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2004/06/293456.html

Hence Blair's supporters presumably threw buckets of white paint over Tony, no matter how much he may have protested.

I'm told that a ritual anointing of King Gordon is not the most likely outcome. Could the strategy of Tony's courtiers be to keep him there for as long as possible, in the hope that time (and the economy) will go against the Chancellor (particularly if he has to raise taxes).
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/15/2004; 09:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123029)
Helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/15/2004; 09:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123030)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

Belgian
(07/15/2004; 09:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123031)
968_964
Sorryyyyy for having mixed up the two numbers and the those behind them.
Socrates, yes you 964 : I'm not a fish inside that very intriging London City bowl. Indeed, the mixing up (maneuvering) of personal (individual) careers (rewards) with National (UK) interests, are extremely confusing for outside observers. Same for competitors within the bowl.
(cfr. Berlusconi and Aznar briberies amongst many others)

Were the UK goldsales the reason behind the mysterious "Washington" in the WAG !? And has the UK-Gold really left London in Physical form or in (paper) gold-commitments with later settlement dates !? Were those goldsales 100% an act of solidarity with dollar-support (IMF gold alternative) or an hidden (disguised) advanced euro (EMU) commitment !?

Hey Socrates...I'm only a tiny shrimp and not a member of the International Elite.

How about the speculative idea that with the permanent occupation of Iraq (by AA) as bridgehead in the ME, the euro should make no chance to become an oil currency and therefore IMF and UK goldsales would just be OK as a tool (oil in euro) to euro FreeGold should remain blocked for as long as the dollar-block was controling the ME oil flow as it also thought to be firmly positioned to control Russian oil-gas (Yukos saga at present) !?

Now, what if the UK could recall its Gold, possibly sold for dollar defense and use the same amount for EMU participation with the remaining status as intermediair between the two Atlantic competitors-rivals-$/� promotors.

That's exactly the kind of stuff that I mean with "intriges" and intrigants.
This goes far beyond us, Soc...We can only speculate and guess how close or distant the theories are from the real thing...or the final outcome.

But one main important thing must always be beared in mind : States are NOT throwing away any of their goldreserves for something more than nothing ($300-$800/Oz) !!!!! Be it directly for the visible papergold marketprice or other rewards. Gold only comes into play for a VERY important cause and not for stupid peanuts !!!

No wonder that only one side of the gold coin is made public. Goldsales,... but never the idendity of the buyer (benefitor) nor the price or other reward (colateral) for the (wealth)metal...Swiss banks (banking activity) in the US ?...oil concessions in Iraq...other ?

The "real" clue of many affairs often remain well hidden by the parties concerned.

Is Shroder trying to change the UK's course a bit more towards the EU with his visit to Tony, today ? Who knows ?
The US has been pushing Turkey towards the EU...on what condition will the US encourage the UK to come under the EMU umbrella !? How come that Tony keeps surviving ...must stay in public function against his own will ?

I'm more of a question machine rather than an answer robot, Socrates. Hope you don't mind.

@968:Sorry for having you mixed up with Socrates, although I felt that something wasn't adding up.



968
(07/15/2004; 09:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 123032)
@ Socrates964 / Belgian
No problem! Now I understand the Soc and Socrates remarks in your previous post !!!
Belgian
(07/15/2004; 09:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123033)
@Socrates
I have the impression that Tony, the broken pony, has some kind of self serving support from the EU. He needs (socialist) help and that might bring the UK closer to the EU !? Might have it wrong here. But I suspected this already a long time. Labor is stuck with Tony and must find a positive finale that makes people forget about the whole Iraqi business. The Spain drama is still casting a shadow over all those actively involved into Iraq.

UK closer to the EU means a heavier euro and more chances that the euro-gold (FreeGold) concept and oil invoiced for euro, comes faster. Might bring lasting peace in the ME together with reliable oil flows !?
Federal_Reserves
(07/15/2004; 10:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123034)
Snowball needs to get a move on
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5670968

Debt limits need increasing! A little embarrasing for the Snow Man. I thought the tax cuts were supposed to stimulate the economy so much tax receipts would rise so fast it would elminate the deficits!


mikal
(07/15/2004; 11:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123035)
Japanese justify gold
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040715/15/3lpm6.htmlMega Bank Merger Won't Impact Japan's Gold Buying

GATA's Chris Powell postes this article this morning.
It points out all the top reasons Japanese(and Asians) buy and hold gold.
Indicates that the merger of Japan's
#1 and #4 banks may improve the
prospects of bank shares vs mining shares but not vs. physical gold bullion,
jewelry or coins.
I'd expect this to apply to ALL
the noble metals.
Also as the article points out, the
latest bank merger will add to the case
that deflation in Nippon is a thing of the past.
Aristotle
(07/15/2004; 11:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123036)
Noble1: "WOW!!! ... How do you come up with something like this?"
Thanks! The short answer is the old adage, "Necessity is the mother of invention."

The previous day I'd had a quick chat with a friend who is a biologist of some sort. In trying to find a way the best way to explain our monetary affairs in terms that she could more personally/professionally relate to, out of necessity I formulated that analogy with the ecological climax community -- it was about the only thing I could think of from her field of study that would provide a useful parallel. She found it useful, and I'm glad you found it useful, too. It makes the dull chore of typing it up worth the while. (It makes me realize how much I envy the people who can enjoy the process of writing as much or more than the process of talking. I'd rather talk. But when it comes to reaching out to more people than one at a time, there's nothing else for it. So why bother at all, you ask? Because if you're not inclined to do your part to help your fellow man, there's really no point in anything.)

Do what you can for yourself and for others. How to start? It's easy...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
admin
(07/15/2004; 11:36:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123037)
Client only special offer
Those of you who are clients of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. may have noticed a flier showing up in your mail box over the past couple of days. The volume of calls we've received tell us that it is generating a high level of interest. This message is both a reminder and a notification to our clientele only that this analysis and accompanying recommendation is available.

If you are a client of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. and have not received notification of this opportunity, your address information with us may not be current. Feel free to contact us and we'll be happy to send you what we've compiled. We apologize for the ambiquity of this post. The nature of this special is such that keeping it under wraps benefits those involved.

Thank you.

The staff at USAGOLD-CPM, Inc.
TownCrier
(07/15/2004; 13:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 123038)
Turkey eliminates gold-related Value Added Tax
VAT legislation has now been amended and enacted by Turkish Paliament for the exemption of VAT on gold-related activities including, according to the new law, "deliveries of goods and services to the explorers, operators, smelters and refiners of precious metals".

For what it's worth.

Gold-watchers will recall that the gold-friendly European Union several years ago took the high road and eliminated VAT on sales of gold coins and bullion to investors within all its member nation-states.

R.
Aristotle
(07/15/2004; 14:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123039)
It's just plain old good common sense
I'm taking a cue from Townie's use of the phrase "Gold-friendly" when describing Europe. Some hasty folks might wonder about that since Euroland itself has been the only major player that's been the public eye with a program of "Gold sales" laid out in the 1999 CB Agreement. So how on earth can they be considered Gold-friendly on top of all that???

Well, you've just gotta dig a little deeper to see it. First, and I've said this before, much more important than the "quota of sales" in the Agreement is the decision by the CBs to curb their own level of participation in the paperGold biz and by stating outright that Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

The next bit of rationale is more subtle, but probably more important and more convincing in the end.

It hinges on your ability to grasp/appreciate the shear magnitude of the accomplishment to begin with. That is, the actual development and introduction of a single currency among these dozen sovereign nations. Each one had to be individually convinced of the ultimate benefit and wisdom of EMU and its surety of success, because each nation was being asked to relinquish a very valuable national prize -- their own monetary sovereignty. The euro also had to do battle with a very deeply entrenched adversary, the international reserve U.S. Dollar.

With the euro being many years in the planning stage, it was given rigorous design-scrutiny so that it would come forth with "The Right Stuff" to ensure success against very great odds.

Now try putting yourself on the design team. What would you recommend going into the mix to give the euro an insurmountable competitive edge in vigor and appeal? That's why it was partnered in a *FRIENDLY* way with Gold -- because the euro faced a huge challenge and was to have only ONE crack at getting things right (i.e., a successful launch.) It should be plainly obvious, the euro needed to form a tight and viable partnership with the single strongest (politically-available) ally. Time-tested and Mother Nature approved. Nothing short of almighty physical Gold would have been able to rise to the occasion for the critical mission, and deep down you know this is true. People need to recognize Euroland's quarterly "market-based" revaluation of Gold reserves for exactly what it is. A carefully-planned, well-crafted, "friendly" symbiosis.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Socrates964
(07/15/2004; 15:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 123040)
Belgian
Just saw your post. I imagine that Blair must be a standing joke in Europe. Sort of a door-to-door salesman whose product is himself but who never manages to sell anything.

He didn't like Clinton because Clinton knew that the trick was to spread himself thinly and ego-massage the Germans on the economy, the French on Europe, the British on Defence, etc. So Tony could never really take the Transatlantic alliance to the bank.

Then he saw his chance with Dubya, only the Neocons are like the lion in Aesop's fable, who claims half the prey because they're the king, a third because they're the strongest and is happy to fight anyone for the remaining sixth. So Tony again comes away empty handed.

Then he sees himself excluded from the Paris-Brussels-Amsterdam-Berlin axis, so he tries to build a coalition of the excluded with Berlusconi and Aznar on the back of Iraq, which then falls apart.

So he's back to trying to put together a club within a club for the big boys, pissing off his remaining Italian ally who's probably on the way out anyway. What's next? The Poles are in love with the Americans, the Romanians with the French, the Estonians with the Finns, the Czechs and Hungarians with the Germans, etc.. How about the London-Valetta-Nicosia (well half of it)-Riga axis?

I thus believe reports that when British diplomats want to know what's really going on in Brussels they have to pray that the Irish will throw them a few scraps of information.

Now, I agree that compared to Howard (who probably doesn't really care either way but is not going to commit political suicide by pushing a pro-Euro line) and Brown (who is infatuated with the New England Democrats), Blair is more eurofriendly, but I think that's as far as it goes, leading me to conclude that the long-term Eurostrategy for the UK is probably to just let it sink under the weight of its own economic contradictions (Don't know whether a BoP crisis or a credit collapse will get it first, but IMHO, it will be one or the other). When that happens (probably early next decade), the UK will probably join the euro on humiliating terms, � la 1973. JMHO, of course!
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/15/2004; 15:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 123041)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- US closing market excerpts ---

Gold Holds Recent Range...

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange put in a largely consolidatory showing Thursday near the middle of their recent price channel to match the largely low-key performance of the U.S. dollar. The most-active Aug contract settled $1.20 lower at $404.40 per ounce....

Gold declined as the euro lost ground against the dollar after a Philadelphia Federal Reserve business conditions survey surpassed all forecasts. Gold's downside was seen limited by other data, however, that presented a mixed view of U.S. economic growth, underscoring that the Fed would probably not be able to take an aggressive approach in raising interest rates....

One broker said gold had been trading lower with the euro, "But I think the funds want to buy this thing (gold) because they dont think were going to get a lot of interest rate increases. So, longer term, gold is still a cheaper buy."

For now, traders said they expected gold to continue trading in a range between $400 and $410 an ounce on August futures.

"If you get through $398.20, youll see $393. If you get through $410.50 on the upside, youll see $420. But, for now, were stuck between a rock and a hard place in this $10 range," a technical trader said.

Whether gold makes it through resistance on Friday will depend on what happens with the U.S. consumer price index, the euro, the dollar, and how the U.S. equity and Treasury markets respond, traders said...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----

HEADLINES

Yukos, Bank Woes May Boost Euro -- The Moscow Times

U.S. stocks end down after warnings, economic data -- Lycos Finance - News

PanAfrica: Countries With Economic Freedom Grow Fastest, Researchers Say -- AllAfrica.com

Hong Kong retains title of "freest" economy in survey -- Channel NewsAsia - Business

Hints of Stagflation Despite Growing U.S. Economy -- Reuters - Technology

Gold Shines Again? -- The Motley Fool
(excerpts from this)
[http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04071578.htm]
By Chris Mallon, July 15, 2004 -- Financial markets are often credited with predictive abilities, and in 2003 two very separate markets accurately anticipated the current economic climate.

In early April, the stock market began predicting a powerful economic recovery,�as the Dow�rose 27% through the end of the year.... At the same time, precious metals were predicting inflation, with gold up 30%...

Both markets were proven correct. Economic growth exploded in the third quarter of 2003, with an 8.2% jump in gross domestic product. Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) was benign through 2003, rising only 1.9%, before exploding at an annualized 5.5% through May 2004. To put it in perspective, at 5.5% annual inflation, prices would double every 13 years.

"Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it." Those words of wisdom are credited to George Soros. The reciprocal of that idea, of course, is to find the true trend and put your money on it. For 20 years, the U.S. has been in a low inflation environment, averaging a 3% annual increase in the CPI. The question for long-term investors: Are this year's inflation numbers an aberration, or the beginning of a new trend?

There are a number of reasons to fear the inflation monster: record personal and public debt levels, global economic imbalances, and huge government deficits, just to name a few. Gold, as the anti-dollar, is a classic hedge against inflation.
Belgian
(07/15/2004; 16:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123042)
Socrates
Nice overview you produced...but...Tony is not a statesman but an accidental (opportunistic) choice by the Rothshilds (patronage) as their "boy".
Think that you are giving him more credit than he deserves.

Anyway, there will come a moment that the UK will/must/shall abandon the AA ship and join the old continent and add/contribute to its new dynamism in progress.

The major news of today is Randy's post about Turkey and no VAT on the bullion-wealth. Another nice example on the broadening "convergence" around Gold as an in concert preparation for the new goldmarket. The gold section in the ivory tower isn't asleep. I'm going to catch some zzzzzzz.

TownCrier
(07/15/2004; 16:29:30 MDT - Msg ID: 123043)
Socrates964 gave it in brief this morning; here is the whole article
http://www.authenticmoney.com/"I.M.F. Gold -- The issues involved", by Julian Phillips, is being provided here under cooperation with and by request of the author.
----------

Chancellor Brown did not suggest the actual sale of gold by the I.M.F. just the revaluation of their gold. With the valuation of Gold at around $40 an ounce, by the I.M.F. he highlighted an archaic issue at the I.M.F. that has lain 'dormant' for decades and should be addressed. The valuation stems from the Articles governing the I.M.F. Chancellor Brown, a man who would have been wiser to have stayed quiet on the issue, given his complete failure in handling U.K. gold reserves, highlighted this pertinent issue at the I.M.F. His anti-gold stance is a matter of record and one that has resulted in his exclusion from the present discussions on gold currently taking place amongst Eurozone Bankers.

He will have no part in these discussions which cover the handling of Eurozone gold. The U.K. relinquishes its part in European gold sales when the "Washington Agreement" expires in September. They were absent from the "2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement", which commences in September of this year. Was that because the Eurozone Bankers hold a different view to his on gold's role as a reserve asset? -- Likely so!

The outcome of these discussions is significant and will determine just what sales will, actually, take place under the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement, irrespective of the ceiling of 500 tonnes per annum set within this agreement.

So in view of these Eurozone discussions, the issue of the valuation of Gold by the I.M.F in its reserves happens at good time.

Why should gold be valued at $40 an ounce? Is this a victory for small minded bureaucrats trying to impose their perceptions of the real world, on the rest of us? We think not. Most likely it is the unwieldy nature of the policy making structure of the I.M.F. which requires 85% of the total voting power of the I.M.F. to make policy decisions. That the U.S. holds 17.3% of these votes, gives it a veto over such decisions, anyway. The cessation of U.S. sales of gold decades ago and their retention of gold reserves speaks volumes on their "Gold Policy".

But the I.M.F. has a record of using the real market gold price in sales and purchases of gold amongst members. In the case of Brazil and Mexico their gold was bought and sold in a sort of "put through" deal that resulted in the full value of the gold, with the deduction of this 'book' value of gold, being used to eliminate the debt of those countries to the I.M.F.

So when push came to shove, the I.M.F. did recognise gold's true value, despite their protests that this was an "exceptional, once-off" action. No doubt there could be future 'exceptional circumstances?

If Gold is still valued at the $40 level, what is the real attitude of the I.M.F. and the opinion of at least the majority of its members towards their gold held by the I.M.F.? Here is the full text of that opinion:

"It is an undervalued asset held by the IMF, and provides a fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Gold holdings provide the IMF with operational manoeuvrability both as regards the use of its resources and through adding credibility to its precautionary balances. In these respects, the benefits of the IMF's gold holdings are passed on to the membership at large, to both creditors and debtors. The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies."

It seems unlikely that this attitude would allow the real value of these assets to support debt write offs. It would appear that they had put the matter to rest by such a policy. We would hope that the valuation issue be raised in the context of a solid realistic, monetary role for gold. We have no doubt that the results of Europe's discussions on gold will have a bearing on the I.M.F.'s valuation of gold.

Chancellor Brown's remarks no doubt irritated Central Bankers in Europe. We believe that significant announcements from certain Central Banks are in the offing, in the near future. We are giving details and insight on this subject in the next issue of "Gold - Authentic Money" discussing this further and detailing where this story is going.
------(from the source at url)-----

R.
mikal
(07/15/2004; 16:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123044)
@Aristotle
Re: "People need to recognize Euroland's quarterly market-based "revaluation" of Gold reserves for exactly what it is."
I always enjoy your analogies and especially that our
common financial landscape is an "evolving ecosystem".
Today your mention of "symbiosis" could positively
link developing monetary trends with the sometimes mysterious and unseen interactions of wild fauna
and microorganisms within any forest flora, landscape, body of water or digestive tract!
Though ECB marks to market total Gold reserves quarterly,
the rules of their charter actually give them
a freer hand to use their requisite reserve revaluation.
That is, marking to market (spot/bullion/melt/price) monthly or weekly, as desired versus quarterly.
They recognize "time is money" and "staying on top of the market" as intrinsic to survival.
But they must be "leading the pack" as well, since
it's in the nature of all living things to know that
money doesn't grow on trees- most creatures will
utilize their adaptive and learning abilities
to sustain themselves and their young!
Socrates964
(07/15/2004; 17:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123045)
Belgian
When I met Blair in the late 1980s, I was quite impressed by him, but given the state of British politics at the time, I was very easily impressed.

Anyway, I think it will be a case of 'must join' -probably under a conservative PM. One can more or less imagine his sales pitch to the British electorate in 2011....

'I recommend this with a heavy heart, but feel that the alternatives are worse. Unfortunately, there are times when we must take difficult decisions and make sacrifices for the common good and the sake of future generations. As you know, one of the conditions of entry into the Euro is 15% reserve backing with gold. Gold we no longer have due to the recklessness of the former Labour government. The good news is that our bankers N.M. Rothschild have located a source of the necessary gold at $3000 per oz., some 5% below the current market price, the bad news is that we must all shoulder this burden, and it is thus with regret that we have been obliged to raise the basic rate of income tax....

Good night!
Great Albino Bat
(07/15/2004; 17:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123046)
The GAB checks in...

Two cents' worth of guano from the GAB:

Just TALK about gold in high places, never mind any action or lack of action, is extremely meaningful.

Just TALK about gold, means that "the barbarous relic" is very, very important, far more than we can imagine, we who are simple observers lacking any solid inside information on what is going on.

Watch and wait. And be sure to get some, while there is still so much "doubt" about the wisdom of doing so.

The GAB

Towncrier: as I heard it, Soros said: "Find a trend based on false premises, and ride it while it lasts. But be sure to bail out before the market discovers the falsity of the premises."
Ag Mountain
(07/15/2004; 17:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123047)
@Socrates
Why would the burdern be any harder to shoulder at $3000 per oz than at $300 per ounce? I'd think it would be easier. Meaning less gold.

The way I figure it, 15% of the overall required subscription payment to the ECB is going to be the same numerical figure regardless of gold's street price, so a higher price means less gold to be carried. Same numerical burden either way, but easier on the shoulders if the price is high when the day arrives. (Unless they've already established their commitments.)
Flaccus
(07/15/2004; 19:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123048)
Eurozone talks
Phillips mentions eurozone talks on gold. Does anyone know the nature of these discussions? Are they occurring in reality, or a figment of Phillips imagination? Perhaps "informal talks"??
Socrates964
(07/15/2004; 21:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123049)
Ag Mountain
Well, just joking, but now you make the point, I presume that the relative amounts of metal that each nation has to chip in will vary with the relative sizes of their monetary bases, since if you have a 15% cover ratio overall, it surely means that France has to cover 15% of the euros circulating in France, Finland 15% of the euros circulating in Finland, etc. Hence, if the UK has an economy the size of France, it presumably will have to deposit the same amount of gold as France, not a tenth of the amount. Seems to me that you're assuming that the gold price will soar while the European monetary base remains the same size. I can only assume that if gold goes up 10-fold, it will be because the monetary base has grown by a similar proportion.
Ag Mountain
(07/15/2004; 23:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 123050)
@Socrates964
RE: "I can only assume that if gold goes up 10-fold, it will be because the monetary base has grown by a similar proportion."
############

It might be OK for you but I sure wouldn't make that assumption. I'd expect a ten-fold rise in gold would mean more than anything that the gold derivative market has collapsed under its own weight or near enough to it sending the market scrambling for the real thing. I mean, we are talkin' TEN-fold here in your example. Don't underestimate how prices for a hot item can rise totally independent of what's going on with the monetary base.

Also it looks to me like the way you're describing the potential gold obligations of the UK in comparison with France completely negates any real meaning behind the mark to market concept. Like I indicated, an equal weight would only be the case if the commitments were already established. Otherwise it's going to be 15% of the nominal amount of the required subscription based on the relative size of the UK's economy and the actual weight of it will be determined by the market price of the day in question.

That's how I've been led to understand it anyway.
Druid
(07/15/2004; 23:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123051)
R Powell (07/14/04; 12:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 123007)
"Druid...Back to the Garden
This prints out at four pages and, imho, is worth the printing. Gross has summerized a great deal, very clearly, in a well-written short essay.

Good heads up on this one...it's enough to make one think of purchasing more gold...paper and physical..(;> ...thanks Druid..."

Druid: R Powell thanks for the kind words. I'm still down loading your "light reading". Thanks for posting them. I like how he points out in his essay, among other things, the fact that many of the world central banks are adjusting their policies to deal with the imbalances with the exception of the ECB. I wonder why the ECB is the exception,hmmm??

The beacon of light that the Euro represents which the ECB is holding and maintaining in the form of price stability has drawn and will continue to draw many giants toward it as they leave the dark confines of dollar instability.

I don't know that "TIPS" representing a paper solution to a massive paper problem is the answer, but then, the investing public continues to confound me on a daily basis.
mikal
(07/15/2004; 23:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123052)
Hedge Funds Falter
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2925920Hedge funds - From Alpha To Omega
July 15, 2004
The Rush Into Hedge Funds Is Pushing Down Returns
Economist magazine online edition

This article briefly outines the deteriorating performance of hedge funds, their risk and innate transcience.
mikal
(07/16/2004; 00:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123053)
@Belgium
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2922746Economist.com | Metrication
July 15, 2004
Measure For Measure
"Inches and ounces Are confusing but popular.
The mess is unsustainable"

Belgium, looks like the Brits want to measure up to
a different set of standards, but not by using a
Greenspan "measured" approach this time.
Belgian
(07/16/2004; 01:07:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123054)
@Flaccus
Yes, the eurozone (and others !!!) talks about Gold ! Talks between plundering, selfserving, shortsighted, ignorant politicians and responsible central bankers and long term monetary planners! The only thing that surfaces publicly from these talks are the sudden, out of the blue, (populistic) statements by politicians (goldsales) and the following silence (grincing teeth) of the CBankers. You can certainly imagine these formal inside Gold talks (rather fights) in the runup to WAGII. And as we all know, Gold talks are of an extremely explosive character with regard to the price and Gold-availability results. Do you remember the WAGI goldprice-spike in sept.'99 !? Wasn't an informal event, imvho.

And...as wise Ari remarked...suggested subtly (sousentendu)...the goldbugs anger towards the interventionist manipulation of Gold is in fact a "positive" as it is the road to the hated (irritating-frustrating) FreeGold. But for the time being, Goldreserve transactions do happen at many differing "circumstantional" price-values ! That's the dollar-way. It will happen systemically on the euro-way. That's what the WAGs are indicating. And you can bet on it that much talk (fight) is going on behind the screens. In analogy with the sixties' London Gold Pool and the finalisation in '71 with the closing of the Gold window (Nixon). Also a period of very formal (secretive) Gold talks...heavy fights !
Belgian
(07/16/2004; 01:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123055)
correction
I see the interventionist manipulation of Gold (the big picture) as a net "positive"...and think that the goldbugs' anger to this (the cabal-?)...is rather unproductive. But now I'm pissing in the holy house...

Mikal : The (former) imperial island shall remain nostalgic for another generation to come. Is part of the cultural wealth of the old continent and to remain fostered. This isn't excluding modernization at all. Euroland, strong through its "tolerant" diversity !!! A NEW and very attractive message...beautiful task !
968
(07/16/2004; 01:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 123056)
Chinese gold buying
People's Daily Online
7/14

Gold bullions sell well at south China's Shenzhen market

Gold bullions from China Goldsilver (CGS) Co. Ltd. were formally put on sale Monday in Shenzhe. The unprocessed lumps of metal sold like hot cakes in the boomtown facing Hong Kong across the Shenzhen River in south China's Guangdong province.

The business office of China Merchants Bank Headquarters, which has been given a monopoly on the trading of gold bullions, noted that they sold 106 ounces of the precious metal within one hour of sale that day.

For instance, a man surnamed Zhang alone, spent more than 230,000 yuan (about 27,700 US dollars) to buy 18 gold bullions weighing 69 ounces.

The gold bullions in Shenzhen, where one of China's two only bourses are situated, come in three sizes -- two ounces, five ounces and 10 ounces, with 99.99 percent in gold purity, said Zhou Li'ang, CGS general manager.

Investors' demand for gold has continued to increase internationally over the past years.

For example, in Guangdong province, one of China's economic powerhouses, 140 tons of gold were sold last year, accounting for more than a half of the country's total gold sales.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Increasing Chinese gold demand !!
968
(07/16/2004; 02:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 123057)
@ Ag Mountain msg#: 123050
Hi Ag Mountain ! What do you mean by relative size ?Relative size to the European economy ? Because if that is the case, everytime a country becomes new EU-member the relative size of each individual economy gets smaller ! Then the other countries can get some gold back. I suppose I'm wrong but I don't know how the pie is devided.
misetich
(07/16/2004; 07:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123058)
Bundesbank Warns Against Bolstering IMF's Role As A Lender>
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=2&ts=1089964320000Snip:

BRUSSELS (MktNews) - The Bundesbank came out strongly on Friday against plans to allow increased access to International Monetary Fund credit on a precautionary basis. In an opinion piece published in the Financial Times, Bundesbank vice president Juergen Stark said such a policy, which has the backing of some G-7 members, would be "highly counterproductive." "If the Fund took up the role of a general risk insurer, thereby making bailout operations in crises a general rule," he said, "private investor's risk assessments would be seriously distorted and debtor countries' incentives to pursue sound policies and build strong institutions undermined." The central banker also warned that the strain on IMF resources would become unbearable
...............
Larger scale funding would "aggravate the already large risks arising from the IMF's high exposure to a few emerging market countries."

The Fund should only lend to those countries whose overall debt situation is sustainable, Stark argued. "It must refrain from rolling over credits again and again."

***************
Misetich

ANOTHER salvo by the Germans. It is worthwhile to note the FRICTION between EU Superpower and the US continues on all fronts - vociferous and public

In addition to the above the US is apparently against Germany aspiration as a permanent member at the UN as retaliation to the Germans not supporting immunity seeked by the US and in support of the a world court

Further the US & Israel are up against the world at the UN vis-a-vis the Wall

Gold is a primary beneficiary of this continued friction

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/16/2004; 07:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123059)
Federal Reserve Gov. Susan Schmidt Bies Exchange rates will have to adjust
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=10&ts=1089956040000Snip:

Exchange rates will have to adjust, she said, as the U.S. current account deficit reaches 5%. She noted that households have been net investors while corporations have been net savers, opposite of the typical pattern.

She also noted with approval that China has been able to recognize that its economy was overheating and pulled back accordingly.
....................

She said while the two Government Sponsored Enterprises are 50% of the mortgage market it would be better if they only secured loans and sold them in the secondary market.

While she said they do provide a "wonderful service," especially for smaller lenders who need to pool loans, the two entities have to hold and manage duration risk "very carefully."

"Mortgages are very tricky to hedge," she said. "You cannot find an exact hedge. That is what worries me."

She said she would like to "see some market discipline" for Fannie and Freddie.
*****************
Misetich

Very unusual public statements by a Fed Governor on the US $

...and Ms Bies adjust they will!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/16/2004; 07:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123060)
Reality Check: U.S. Energy Execs See Little Room for Price Drops Jul 14 / 13:15 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

A trot around the globe reveals a grim tale among them: civil strife in Saudi Arabia, Iraqi pipelines blown up as quickly as they're repaired, a possible recall of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, labor troubles in Nigeria and Norway -- and Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, in a legal battle with YUKOS, its second-largest oil company.
........................
But he also observed that while refineries are operating at record levels, gasoline and distillate stocks remain below historical averages, largely because it's expensive to hold inventories when prices are high
.................
"There is some correlation between the price of gasoline and $40 a barrel for oil," he said. "But there's another phenomenon we've noticed since spring. AAA believes boutique fuel requirements that are in effect
in the summer months are responsible for these price increases."
.................
A government energy analyst envisions permanently higher prices for natural gas. "It's now clear that we reached a turning point in 2000 in terms of the ability of the industry to drill wells and find gas," the
source said. "As the economy starts to recover and demand increases for power generation, we see a lot of pressure on natural gas prices."
***************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe currently underway, has the potential to be explosive, as the US election nears - supplies tight - demand high - and the high risk of something major happening

Gasoline and natural gas are not too far behind - yet - we hear - "price inflation" is not a worry

...and maybe it isn't if your salary is in the 6 figures level - unfortunately the majority of consumers are barely managing staying afloat through HIGHER INDEBTENESS

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/16/2004; 07:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123061)
China delivers blunt warning to U.S.
http://www.spacedaily.com/upi/2004/WWN-UPI-20040714-10422200-bc-us-china-relations-crn.htmlSnip:

The United States must cease its interference with Chinese internal affairs over the question of Taiwanese independence or face a serious deterioration of U.S.-China relations, China warned Tuesday.

In an official statement delivered to the press at the Embassy of the Republic of China, embassy spokesman Sun Weide spoke of China's grave concern regarding recent U.S. actions on the Taiwan question.

He urged the United States to halt all arms sales to the country, terminate military links, end official exchanges with Taiwanese authorities, and stop supporting Taiwan's efforts to join international organizations that require statehood.

Such actions, Sun said, violated the one-China policy to which U.S. leaders pledged adherence in three joint communiqués signed
....................
The United States is caught in the middle of an increasingly tense situation, said Carpenter, and is currently heading for a nasty confrontation.

We're likely to have a major crisis within the next few years, he said.
**************
Misetich

Perhaps they're only words - yet China is getting lauder on perceived US interference re: arms sales to Taiwan

As the Red Dragon economy steam rolls ahead and their military power increases...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(07/16/2004; 09:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 123062)
Cruel oil : $41,65 pb (82 million of those barrils a day)
All, oil importing states, all over the world, can only watch and pay more dollars for the vital oil. Pay with dollars that they have "earn" with production and services...with very little pricing power... and don't have the privilege to "print".

There are only two outcomes for the global effects of this rising $-POO :

1/ Adding much more dollars all over the globe with a general rise in prices. Hyper infladada.
2/ Another oil currency.

If there is no Gold anymore to let oil flow cheaply...and if we believe that a civilized world has no intention of grabbing other peoples' oil...we can easely say that we have a problem at present and a Big one if this oilprice rises further on...up unto OBL's $144 pb.

In '99 when POO-POG = $9-$253 A barril was valued at 1,11 gram of Gold per barril. Today one barril of oil is valued at 3,18 grams of Gold per barril.
In the past 5 years we stayed into the historical 1 gr to 3 gr Gold per barril, range !!! Can we conclude that, once again, w've reached a very critical point for the balances of the global economic system !?

This relationship of < cheap Gold-expensive oil > and vice versa, < cheap oil-expensive Gold > cannot go on for ever if we take into account that available oilreserves will peak one day and that the dollar fiat is not for ever.

I think that it is here that the euro is profitting from. A shift out of the dollar into the euro, because of the euro already being assosiated with Gold in the new euro Physical Gold market.
Today, a forex expert couldn't come up with one single reason why one should get out of the dollar and in the euro.
But other experts can come up with 100 reasons why the POO keeps rising, without ever mentioning (suggesting) that it might have something to do with the dollar currency as such.
Austriches !?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/16/2004; 10:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 123063)
Helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/16/2004; 10:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 123064)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

Federal_Reserves
(07/16/2004; 12:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123065)
As the elections draw nearer�....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/7/13/171536.shtmlPrepare like you did for the Y2K. Better to be safe than sorry.

I would recommend storing some ready cash in your house in a safe place at a minimum. If you can at least 5-10 thousand. I would also recommend you buy a shotgun and plenty of shells, load up on can goods, fresh water, stick matches and candles. Keep your gas tanks topped off, including propane tanks and fuel oil!

When the terrorists explode the suitcase bombs as many suggest, you'll be ready to defend yourself and buy what you need.

If you live in LA, NYC, Dallas, Washington, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, move out.



Boilermaker
(07/16/2004; 13:01:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123066)
Russian Strategy re Oil, Gas and Other Natural Resources
I'm no Russian expert and certainly I don't pretend to know the mind of Putin vis-a-vis the USA. However, based on recent events in the war against oligarchs Putin has expressed his intention of keeping Russian resources in Russian hands.
It occurred to me that perhaps this is part of a strategy that emulates what Reagan did by outspending and bankrupting Ruusia in the arms race. Reagan had the advantage of the world's reserve currency that gave him the deepest pockets in the world. The Soviets were saddled with a third world currency that would not support deficit spending. The war was won "peacefully"" by the dollar vs. the Ruble.

Now we have an older, weaker dollar challenged by a strong young Euro contender. Russia senses a title match coming between the two currencies and is starting to place their bets and at the same time trying to influence the outcome. The Russian long suit in this face-off is their resources; oil, gas and other key commodities. Russia may be trying to bury the dollar by judicious management of their resource wealth. This will be a battle of the commodities, real wealth against paper wealth. My bets have been placed on the commodity oriented contender.

misetich
(07/16/2004; 13:57:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123067)
Taiwan Central Bank Pledges to Curtail Run on Funds
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=az9nhIF07vdM&refer=asia...Snip:

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan's central bank said it may step in to ensure stability in the island's NT$2.9 trillion ($86 billion) mutual funds industry after investor withdrawals forced five funds to halt redemptions.

An estimated NT$240 billion worth of bond funds have been redeemed this week, according to the Commercial Times. The rush is ``irrational'' and sufficient money will be made available to provide ``liquidity to stabilize money markets,'' the bank said in a statement. The government didn't release any figures on size of redemptions.

The problem ``was probably caused by Procomp,'' Jong Huey- jen, deputy director-general at the Securities and Futures Bureau, said in a phone interview. She was referring to Procomp Informatics Co.'s default on a bond payment due on June 16. ``Everybody now panics when hearing about bonds. This is an issue of confidence.''
**************
Misetich

Gold - only Physical Gold - is the ultimte currency of choice

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/16/2004; 14:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 123068)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- Friday gold market excerpts ---
COMEX gold prices firmed at the start on Friday and were helped higher by the muted rise in core U.S. consumer prices and again by a lower-than-forecast sentiment reading, gold traders said.

"I think the CPI definitely affected us, but I also think the whole week we've been working the upside. The markets have been firm all week. The weakest point this week was when we tested $401 (per ounce on August futures), and we could have gotten much lower that day, but there was nothing but buying," said one gold broker...

Gold futures climbed more than $2 an ounce Friday as fresh U.S. economic data eased investor concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes, sending the dollar sharply lower, but prices still ended $1 lower for the week. Gold remained above $406 an ounce "due to the prospects that the Fed may be on hold from another rate hike," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services....

Gold for August delivery closed at $406.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $2.40 for the session...

"As the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace with inflationary pressures declining, the outlook for the interest rate differentials from the United States and foreign countries seems to widen," Person explained. "This makes [gold] more attractive as foreign buyers have an advantage and more purchasing power to purchase gold."

The economic data also contributed to weakness in the dollar, which in turn prompts a spike in investor interest for gold.

While the inflation and sentiment readings provide clues to the Feds interest rate policy, traders said gold continues to take its cue as well from the euro, which rallied on Friday. "Gold is a product that trades against the dollar and so does the euro. So, we trade in tandem with the euro," said one trader...

The current prices for gold "represent good buying opportunities for certain investors," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. He believes gold prices are headed for a move toward the $425 level. "Gold is gaining strength every day it stays above the $400 mark and that indicates a bull market," he added...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr headlines)----
Boilermaker
(07/16/2004; 17:05:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123069)
Russian Strategy ?
Expanding on my earlier post, this subject, the Russians may want to become a key Euro zone player by virtue of their resource base. The Euro countries are strong in industry, finance and commerce but lacking in natural resources. Russia would round out that side of the ledger and make the Euro zone stronger than the US on a broad front.
I have little knowledge of Putin's relationship with key Euro zone leaders but if I were running the place (Russia) that would be my strategy.
Perhaps others at the forum could comment on this theory and/or cite recent events that may support or conflict with it.
Solomon Weaver
(07/16/2004; 19:20:35 MDT - Msg ID: 123070)
federal reserves...the suitcase nuke link
Hey FR

Noted and read the link you posted on suitcase nukes.

Although I certainly hope that "god willing" none will ever get used......I think that if we see a simultaneous use, it will not be restricted to USA.

There was a great outpouring of support from the world after 9/11. If such a monolithic attack were made in multiple US cities, but no other "western nation", it may succeed in killing many, but it would put USA on very moral high ground in the war on terror.

Poor old Solomon
Life,Liberty,Property
(07/16/2004; 23:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123071)
Russia Strategy?
I would have to differ on Russia. I know that a single trip to central Russia doesn't make me an expert (got back Wednesday), but Russia really doesn't look poised to be a player these days. The Yukos (the largest oil company) mess isn't likely to have a positive resolution, no mater what way things shake out. Recent bank problems, including the largest bank is likely to continue the uncertainty amongst investors in Russia. I spent a week in the third largest city and saw only a little vitality in what was a major industrial and transportation center. Until Russia pulls out of the influence of the Mob/ex-KGB, Russia will continue to be a relatively minor player.
ge
(07/17/2004; 00:39:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123072)
Russia
After the disintegration of the SSCB, Russia lost Eastern Europe while the US lost Western Europe. Was this intentional or accidental?
Belgian
(07/17/2004; 02:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 123073)
Russia ....
Russia is far from a paradise and chaos is on the order of the day. That's why it is so dangerously important and not in the least on the subject of energy resources (oil-gas).
Russia has already been plundered in the past decade and Putin (supported by Germany) tries to stop the resource plundering . This is, and will remain, a hell of a job.

At present, our planet is in the ban of oil... AS THE VERY BASIC FUNDAMENTAL OF OUR ENTIRE FUTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE.

In a geopolitical context, we are deciding today if oil (the remaining reserves) is going to be a curse or a (further)blessing in the very nearby future !

The owners of the remaining oilreserves are increasingly aware of this situation and act accordingly.
All oil-investments are purposely slowed down (gradually) ! We do see the early effects that this is causing. Cruel Oil wishes to be "valued" properly !!! The absolute majority of people who live above these remaining vital oilreserves can only share extreme poverty ...
This is,-has been,-will remain, the most complicating factor in the global oil matters.

Mistich posted Germany's criticism about the purposely irresponsible IMF policies (strategies). Bring more debt to this global village as a tool to dominate, divide and rule within a controlled degree of organized destabilization.

Economy is a politically regulated business as is war, peace and harmony. It are also political decissions that ultimately direct fiat exchange rate trends/moves.

Most of the time, our global village, needs a "crisis" to move massively and concerted into the good (better)direction. Even if "the crisis" is being timed, wich is mostly the case...interventional manipulation !

Main crisis in the make today is the "end" of abundant cheap crude oil ! Russia is defintely within this equation.

And so is the "pricing" of Gold (amongst many other pricings)! Most of the time...the offer-demand factor is of very little importance...a stubborn myth !
Belgian
(07/17/2004; 03:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123074)
Question :
The South African rand is rising, since its low of 2002, against the dollar "AND" the euro. The rising trend remains intact ! How come ?

Knowing that the rand has to live from "export" to dollar and euro.
Knowing that there are still underground goldreserves for another 100 years of mining.
How can the rand currency remain so strong, at present, when this currency has been declining (weakening) for more than 20 years ?
Knowing that agricultural exports are far greater than gold-exports.
Knowing that the stability-perceptions on this country are poor and the rand is not exactly a currency in wich to flight.

Any takers ?
Sundeck
(07/17/2004; 07:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123075)
Belgian #123074 - Strength of South African Rand
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.htmlAhh, Sir Belgian...I have been wondering the same thing for some time, but I certainly don't have any definitive answers.

Looking at charts of exchange rates for the last four or five years (the link enables comparisons to be made), we see that Gold versus Rand has a very similar pattern to Euro versus Rand (not surprisingly since gold has been almost constant in Euros for several years). The Rand has strengthened against both Gold and the Euro by about 30% in the last two years.

However, over the last two years, the Rand has strengthened by almost 100% against the US Dollar (and the Russian Ruble, and other currencies as well).

As you rightly point out, the Rand is probably not known (thought of) as a "flight to safety" currency. But also, it probably does not take very large currency flows into South Africa in order to send the Rand up strongly (unless major exchange controls are implemented by the SA authorities).

Why would people (contries) be investing in South Africa?

Well, we know that Russian companies recently made large acquisitions of SA gold producers. We also know that Gold is attracting a lot of attention world-wide as "investors" of one colour or another add exposure to gold to "hedge" against a falling dollar (or to hedge against their own falling currency during the "competitive curency depreciation" that is occurring). Share prices of gold producers world-wide are rising and have been rising for the last two years.

Could it be that the Rand is strong because of foreign direct investment in SA gold producers and explorers?

This is certainly a factor in Australia. Gold is our third largest export earner. There has been substantial foreign investment in our gold industry, partly accounting for the rise in the Australian dollar over the last two years.

I suspect that it is more general than just gold, however. As the price of "commodities" rises in US Dollar terms, there has been investment in countries (like Australia and South Africa) that are major "commodity" producers - hence the rise in their currencies.

FWIW

:-)

ge
(07/17/2004; 12:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123076)
Belgian - Strong Rand
Answering the "why" question is difficult. It requires evidences and witnesses. It is easier to do as "Hercules Poirot" does, and ask "what are the consequences and who benefits?". One gold related consequence would be the decrease in gold mine profitability in terms of rand; and hence decrease in gold output. Who benefits? Bull interest. At this point, Mr.Poirot would begin to check the annual gold production of SA mines to make sure that his hypothesis matches with reality. Frankly, that is quite a work, and it is beyond me.
Aristotle
(07/17/2004; 12:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123077)
Sundeck -- South African rand
Thanks for taking a swing at Belgian's questions! Yours was a fine explanation, especially if we were assuming the (forex) markets involved in this situation were the ideals of fair, open, and commercially driven vehicles.

But what if we assumed they weren't? What if we assumed they were used, politically, as a means to a political end?

What if certain deep thinking interests/powers came to the recognition that the South African currency market was just a tiny little thing compared to the size of the world's Gold market? And what if these same interests/powers recognized the disproportionately large size of South Africa's Gold resources on the world stage against the backdrop of their tiny currency market?

Boy, wouldn't it be tempting for those interests/powers to go directly after the puny South African currency market as a clever means to facilitate control over its disproportionately large Gold resources?

By driving up the exchange rate of the itty bitty domestic currency, thus taking away the profitability of mining in local terms, think how easy it might be to have the have these important sources of Gold production bent over a barrel in a virtual headlock. Couldn't this be seen as a relatively cheap means to dictate the fate of a lot of important Gold? Production could be stifled, if that were the goal, ****OR**** wouldn't it also then be made all the easier to entreat them, if this were the end goal, with more attractive off-market offers than they could get *on* the public market?

By the means of "influencing" the exchange rate of a tiny national currency, you could most effectively (and discreetly!!) achieve the ends of determining the fate and flow of the national production without -- and this is the important part -- *WITHOUT* facing the alternative, that is, having to compete for that same production in what would quickly become a vicious circle rising-price environment in which EVERYBODY else also suddenly wanted the Gold, too, simply because you were dull-witted enough to try buying it through an open market.

I'm offering all this just as food for thought. Just as a mental exercise, you know. But really, it's not too terribly hard to use those simple calisthenics as a springboard to imagine the existence, somewhere in the world, of a group with a political interest in having control of a measure of future Gold flow -- especially if it "somehow" assisted their obvious political need for assuring future oil flow on favorable terms.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Goldendome
(07/17/2004; 13:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123078)
Driving the Rand Higher

Sir Aristotle!! What a wonderfully brilliant and yet, diabolical plot you surmise.

Let me see if I understand it: Some cunning group with deep pockets, buys the Rand incessantly driving it's price up in comparison to the dollar...The Gold that the South African mines produce is sold for dollars, that exchange for fewer higher priced Rand now, that the miners must use to pay their ever increasing expenses. At some point the decreasing profitability (or losses) cause the mine owners to either shut down, or more probably, sell their assets into the waiting hands of...TA, TA, ---the same cunning group with the deep pockets that is buying the rand and causing the problem to begin with. ---Brilliant!!!

Would some group of Arabs benefit from this? They would then control the major oil and, a major gold area. But, I suppose if true, it could be any group that had access to a lot of free cash flow, looking for a long term objective or goal in gaining access to gold reserves.
Topaz
(07/17/2004; 15:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 123079)
Oil/Dollar/Bond pressures.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWOil/DX ratio out on a limb here as it appears Oil is retaining the ascendency. The Bond market again looking to stand on it's own two (left) feet as demand for future Oil is being hedged in the T's. I'd be loath to be short a Buck now as equilibrium could return with a vengance.
Gold still underperforming it's currency equals, tho we might get a spike prior to options expiry.

...and so it goes!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/17/2004; 23:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123080)
For over 30 years, your friend in the business...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Max Rabbitz
(07/18/2004; 06:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 123081)
Strong South African Rand
Good morning all. I slept well last night after pondering Sir Belgian's question. Why is it the policy of the South African Government to have a very strong currency whereas all other governments seem to be in a race to the bottom? The SA government has stated that a strong Rand is their policy. They have maintained high interest rates despite protests from trade groups. With high interest rates, speculators can do a profitable carry trade using leverage and drive this little currency to the moon. I think they can also leverage currency futures. Why the government policy to attract hot money to their currency? I suspect it has to do with putting pressure on all productive sections of the South African economy, especially mining, to give assets to Black political supporters and groups, or if that fails to drive them into bankruptcy and then have the State take over. Remember, all politicians, especially "ex-communists" and current "socialists" need to reward their political supporters. There's nothing like having the assets in your hand to provide a good nights sleep. The Uruguay Pesos that I received yesterday were beautiful. Excellent mint quality that I was not expecting from South America. I had some uncirculated Colombian coins from that period where only one in 10 had the full detail clearly formed on the reverse. Maybe ran the dies too long? No matter, I'd still rather have the coins than a Colombian gold mine.
Shapur
(07/18/2004; 08:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123082)
SA Rand discussion
Is the rand at the "proper" level or is it too strong or too weak? A very tough question to say the least and one that depends most on what your position is in regards to the SA currency. SA gold miners and other SA exporters are hurt by the strong rand. The high rand, partly a result of higher interest rates and aggressive monetary policy by the SA government in targeting inflation, has helped the country as a whole in terms of building up country-wide financial conditions. The SA consumer has enjoyed improved purchasing power (imports) and the level of consumer confidence is at an all time high!

The rand is not so strong as the US dollar is more so weak. Yes, relatively high SA IRs has attracted world money streams in search of higher relative yield. However, commodity prices have also improved on a global basis and this factor has helped bolster the rand. There are still some capital and currency controls in place that are going to be removed. The NOFP controls have dampened rand demand. These Net Open Forward Position controls are going to be removed so that the SA government can boost thier currency reserves. This will strengthen the rand and the rand may already be reflecting this strength.

With all the factors boosting rand strength, there are also factors that effect the rand towards weakness. Global recovery and increased global interest rates will draw currency flows away from the rand. The high rand has also produced a change from current account surplus to current account deficit in SA. This is a direct result of lower export revenues. Lower economic growth in SA will eventually hurt the rand outlook. So its a not a strength story without some questions.

Another factor regarding the rand is how outside investors feel about the currency. Rand volatility has been a problem in the past with regards to hedging profits and planning investment models. A currency which sails to and fro based on government policy leaks is dangerous to deal with.

In the past there have been leaks regarding rules that govern the socialistic power of ownership of mining assets. Back in late 1999--2000, SA gold stocks would swoon lower when news or rumors came up regarding Black Ownership. The Black Enterprise (BEE) goal or target is currently set to be 24% of mine ownership.

The amount of foreign investment in SA is not over-the-top. You don't see commercials on TV for SA bonds. So its not an overheated sector, but there is the hedge fund money in there and that can be fickle.

Now to what has been postulated: is there some manipulation from a group or cabal gunning the rand higher so as to control the mining industry and output? Maybe. There is no real way to say for sure. So I want to look at some of the results of such a game and see if there is any proofs out there.

1. SA golds are weak compared to other gold miors based on the strong rand.

2. Offers to buy some or all of these mines have not been overtly large---gold fields(partly) by Norlisk seems to have been a russian hard asset play to get money out of russia.

3. The SA government is keeping the rand strong, policies can change. What if the government decides to give mining companies subsidies or tax breaks or some other relief. This would help the bottom line of these companies. What if the goverment starts to fund more social programs, etc?

4. There is widespread and almost certain bullishness regarding the continuation of a strong rand. From a contrary viewpoint things seem a little too bullish. This may be a short-term trading outlook or it may change to a longer term one depending on circumstances.

5. Trends tend to stay in place as long as they are reinforced. The Soros postulate for now is in place for the stronger rand. I remember a while back --not sure when but is was at the time of a new high in rand strength that Soros came out and said that he thought the rand was overdone on the high side. I think its fair to say and to believe that there is real big money in the SA currency markets. Whether or not that means that the ultimate control of SA gold resources is the game plan is pure speculation.

6. The rand could be going into a blow-off type move. If so the SA golds may plummet. This could be a buying opportunity. Also, if it is true that hedge fund money dominates the SA situation, that money could exit due to whatever herd mentality trigger and the rand could fall dramatically off of a parabolic rise.

7. The rand/gold price is low, but not at historic lows.
The gold companies will survive. The price of gold for the most part has been more strong in dollars than in other currencies. Phase 2 of a gold bull market will see gold rising in all currencies.

Therefore one of the biggest single factors that affects the rand is the price of gold, since gold is the primary export of the country. The strong rand has kept the SA gold industry profit hobbled--but for how long? Eventually the gold price will overtake the higher rand and gold will be priced in a currency basket worldwide, eventually neutering the weaker dollar mirror that most look through when seeing a stronger rand staring back at them. As the US dollar loses its dominance of world pricing, the rand will be looked on for its own merits in a more pronounced way. So if the SA government is contolling its finances and helping its exporters grow and boosting its currency reserves--then a strong world rand can walk hand in hand with a strong rand/gold price.

Today, the SA gold mining industry is a lot better than it was in 1998 and surely isn't going bankrupt. With gold in a secular bull market, then possibly like 20th century gold minors in the US during the 30's, with a stable currency backdrop--profits and dividends were the best performing asset class. A much higher gold price will lift all boats in SA. Its up to the politicians from that point on.




Boilermaker
(07/18/2004; 10:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123083)
Rand Strength
http://www.reservebank.co.za/Ari came up with an intriguing theory that may have some credence but I'm thinking more in line with Shapur's points. It seems to me that Rand strength may be based on a carry trade cashing in on high (7 to 8%)short term rates in SA vs. 1% in Dollars. Surely SA and its Rand are not seen as a financial security haven such as once existed in Switzerland.

But this theory begs the question, Why is the SA CB holding its rates so high? SA's strongest exports (35%) are in mining and metals; Gold, PGM, Diamonds, Coal and Vanadium. Ag products are another large export sector. These commodity items are highly price sensitive and the export markets won't pay up for a higher rand. This leaves the exporter with lower prices and profits because his labor inputs at home are not going down. Mining metals and agriculture are also SA's largest employers and with unemployment in the 25% or higher range why would a black empowered CB risk these kinds of problems?

I decided to do some research and went to the SARB (South African Reserve Bank) website. I was quite astonished at what I learned. What first got my attention was the simple mission statement "the achievement and maintenance of financial stability". To this end they seem to be focused primarily on containing inflation and strengthening the currency via sound monetary policy. The Board of Governors is made up of a broad range of backgrounds, ethnically and
educationally, and they have seemingly resisted the temptation to make the bank an instrument of government orchestrated fincial stimulus. In this sense they have the same approach as the ECB. In fact their substantial gold reserves are marked to market.

It also appears after reading the latest address of July 8 by Governor TT Mboweni they have acted to stifle an incipient stock market bubble and quench the threat of inflation introduced by their partial dependence on foreign oil. The higher Rand has actually reduced their oil costs recently. Furthermore, they seem to be using real inflation indices, not the heavily cooked creations that are offered by US government statistitions.

Perhaps SA is trying to become the new Switzerland. They have more gold in the ground than the Swiss ever had in their banks.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/18/2004; 10:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123084)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Tevye
(07/18/2004; 10:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123085)
Contest Gold Arrives!!

It is a credit to FedEx that they actually deliver to my little village of Anatevka. The 5 Peso Gold awarded for the recent contest was recieved yesterday. Many Many thanks to Sir MK and all at the Castle for your efforts on the contest and your generosity in the prizes.

I visit the Castle and its conversations to learn from the expertise. "Make Oil not War", Sir Boilermaker you are right! "Our carefree attitude toward energy is to blame", Sir JuniorMiner you are right. "The closer a country is to the land and to the old ways, the less the People will be affected by Oil's wiles", Sir Smeagol you also are right! I am hohored to have contributed a perspective worthy of such wise company. Let us continue to assist each other, as we live through these interesting times.

Gold. Its Tradition!

Tevye

Boilermaker
(07/18/2004; 12:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123086)
Spinmeister Greenspan on Stage This Week
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20040718/bs_nm/economy_greenspan_dcsnip,
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will go before Congress this week armed with data showing the U.S. economy is solid and free of dangerous price pressures that could force rapid interest-rate rises.
The Fed chairman is to deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely assuring lawmakers recent signs of a slowdown are merely a lull and that rates need to gradually rise to keep the recovery healthy.
"I think we're going to see him patting himself on the back for having guided the economy through a weak period," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist with National City Corp. in Cleveland.

comment,
He just might break his arm one of these days.

Belgian
(07/18/2004; 13:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 123087)
A rand theory....
This South African currency is still controlled by the elitist broader Anglo-club, through the SA CB ! The rand has been at South Africa's goldmining *service* for decades ! Price-inflation in SA, never eased and is still high, today.

High IRs are NOT-NOT-NOT in "defense" of any currency !!!
High IRs do mean that a currency is under stress and is "desperately" supported by high IRs, as the only tool available, up until the "real" cause for currency weakness is cured. High IRs are a net zero sum game ! The price-inflation eats more purchasing power away from your currency that is perceptively defended/supported by hig/higher IRs.

The rand strength + high rand IRs, is an organized contradiction in terminis. The same is true for the dollar !!! Both currencies are under a formidable regime of interventionist manipulation. A gigantic anomaly.

One of the main reasons why the dollar remains relatively strong is because of the highly abnormal "low" IRs, that results in hiding the dollar's intrinsic weakness. These very low IRs are the "REAL" defense of the currency !!!
As soon as IRs start to rise, all can clearly see that the currency is intrinsically weak and higher IRs are like a plaster on a leg that has to be amputated.

The seemingly abnormal strength of the rand against the dollar and many other currencies, at the same time,...results in an organized profitability range for the goldmine sector. Read : Gold output !!!

Note the following goldmine axioma : The more profitable goldmining becomes...the less Gold is brought to the surface !!! The thinner goldmining profits become,...the more precious from rich veins must be brought to the surface as to stay in business !!!

Voil�...I want all goldminers to exhaust their richest reserves and bring as much Gold above the ground as possible !!! Because I have to serve some very demanding Gold clients who wished to be served with cheap Gold that in the same effort makes the dollar look strong (creditworthy)!!!

The SA economy is the size of Belgium. Means, insignificantly small and therefore the easy terrain for ...the old ruling (rand)masters !

Approximately the same story for the Aussie mines wich added to the "organized" goldmine forward goldsales !

BTW, all do remember the Ashanti near default story...and today we see Anglogold-Ashanti as one entity !!!-???
Indeed, the major gold-diggers are not going to default under whatever circumstances . But goldmines are part of the Goldprice interventionist containment. And that shouldn't surprise you at all,...if you do consider Gold, the metal, as the most universal and purest "non monetary" wealth asset.

Goldmine shares are to be considered as fiat carrying an IR (dividend) and a fluctuiating exchange rate (shareprice).
Under the ruling UNFREE Gold-regime, major mature, non speculative, goldmineshares can never fly away like the dot-bombs.

As soon as the goldmining needs some desperate profitability oxygen, they (Anglo-club & Co) will do something with the rand exchange rate as to provide renewed profitability space. That's speculation and not wealth conservation !

Let's watch the rand exchange rate, all together and see if something has changed from the old regular habits that are established under the dollar-Gold regime !?

Cage Rattler
(07/18/2004; 14:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123088)
ZAR
Some actual statistics re South African economy: GDP is 3.1%, CPI is around 4.5%, mining's contribution to the GDP is in the order of 5%. That...just might put the relative (un)importance of gold into perspective on the local currency.
Smeagol
(07/18/2004; 17:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123089)
clarify, precious?
Sir Cage Rattler (sss... we likes that 'handle'), are you suggessting, that the 5% GDP mining-contribution is not sso important, or on the other hand that this little 5% has dissproportionally much more of an influence on the Rand-fiat at thiss time?

S.
Boilermaker
(07/18/2004; 18:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 123090)
Belgian's Rand Theory
Belgian, Your Rand theory, lower Rand gold prices forcing high-grading of SA mines and hence higher gold production has some short term logic. However, gold and SA gold mines have been been in a slump for many years with the recent exception of 2002 when the Rand was extremely weak. Gold production has declined from 32 million ounces in 1970, 68% of world production, to about 12 million ounces and 14% of world production in 2003. This is not a strong hand for a small CB to play in trying to stimulate production by starving the producers. The miners have been been underfed for too many years to react positively to more low price stimulus.
The markets will tell us who is right.


mikal
(07/18/2004; 21:29:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123091)
Gold news in Australia
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10179476%255E14302,00.htmlFrom MK's news feed:
News.com.au - Gold still outshines alternatives
July 17, 2004

A few ultra-conservative price forecasts and some misinformed opinions are included in this otherwise,
upbeat Au assessment. But then upon reaching the
last two paragraphs, Newmont talks of a
"serious way" in the US of A!
968
(07/19/2004; 01:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 123092)
@ ALL
Goodmorning ! I've a rather tricky question. What percentage of physical gold would you recommend in a portfolio and why ?
Belgian
(07/19/2004; 01:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123093)
@Boilermaker
I follow your reasoning...but...A few hundred tonnes per year can make "the" difference in the complex Gold containment regime !!! Cfr. a million or 2, more or less barrils a day have an enormous effect on the price (pricing).
There is a very good reason why the oil-cartel (OPEC) does exists and is accepted . Do the same reasoning for the invisible Gold-cartel. Oil and Gold do have swing-producers !!!

We know, but don't fully recognise, the utmost importance of oil and its pricing as the fundamental for global economic activity...But are we fully aware that Gold and its pricing is of the utmost importance in relation to the entire $-fiat (reserve) system !?

The absurd low POG is desperately needed to ridicule Gold in front of the cosmic dollar debtbergs. If Gold could impossibly be a reserve alternative...it would already be FREE and priced much higher!
It is the absurd low POG that is permanently impacting the attitude (behavior) of "Trillions" of dollars !!! Gold must be percepted as "death" ...and this by ALL means !

If oil owners see a consistant rising POO, they are inclined to pump less as to maintain artificial scarcety and consolidate the high price into the future. As soon as the price starts to weaken, more oil needs to be pumped to obtain the same income. Think Iraq.

The same logic is applicable to the Gold cartel & Co.

Now, the longer I see high oil prices and low Gold prices - anomaly, the more I'm inclined to believe (accept as evidence) that concerted anti-dollar forces are succesful in dethroning the dollar-reserve-system and offering the alternative. Why is it that Sir Alan, must go on telling the planet that...there are NO serious price-pressures !!!-??? A lot might dramatically change, overnight, if the Iraqi reserves could be brought massively into the market...under US control. That's why Iran is next and then I'm going to hold my breath.

It is within this context that I'm trying to see the rand's (abnormal) strength. Might have it wrong again, of course.
968
(07/19/2004; 01:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 123094)
@ Belgian
You seem to be really sure the US is going to invade Iran ! Because they want to establish their own (golden dinar) oil-market or just to get control over the oilfields ? Do you think it will be a US-only action or will Europe be involved ? European Commission also condemned Iran's nuclear actions ?
Belgian
(07/19/2004; 01:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 123095)
@968
My personal view (and action) on Physical Gold in Possession, is rather simple : Everything that I consider to be as my "wealth" is exchanged for Physical Gold.
Most will never consider Gold as wealth and the few others have wide different opinions on what wealth, per definition, is. Therefore it is impossible to ever answer your question with a % figure.

But...the notion-perception (definition) of wealth, for the general public, does evolve...has always evolved for 5,000 years already. And it is here that your question becomes much more interesting. Who believes that Gold is going to be "Re-Valued" with an "Official" status as Universal wealth !? That's the clue Sir...and that's what makes the many different views on Gold and related. And it is exactly here that we are all on our own !
Belgian
(07/19/2004; 02:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123096)
@986
Think that nobody can tell what will happen. But there is a new wave of frightening global "polarization" on many very crucial issues. I do get the renewed impression that we are heading, steadily and gradually, for a sad world fire, once again. Can only sincerely hope that I'm having it completely wrong here.
968
(07/19/2004; 02:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123097)
@ Belgian
I cannot imagine for the US to invade Iran the november election. If they want to do it they will have to hope on a re-election for G.W. and invade in jan-feb 2005 because the weather conditions are the best during that period. On the other hand, how will Europe react on a golden dinar oil market ? Euros are not golden dinars.
There is al lot of talk about ME and Russian oil, but there is a silence about Venezuela's oil. Are they definetely in the $-camp ?
Belgian
(07/19/2004; 05:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 123098)
@968
Main point is that Iran (+ its supporters), is standing in the way for having (cheap-abundant-constant reliable) oil-flows as we had them before ! In this global oil-turmoil, there are those who profit from it and others who are damaged (threathened). It is against this oily background that present evolving geopolitics must been seen. Invasions and occupations, for whatever reasons, do have certain limits. Impossible to predict who is going to produce what provocation and who is going to stay cool (reasonable) or not. Euroland is doing what it can to stay as neutral as possible. Others wish to add (oil) to the fires.

For the time being we are in a relative stable, unstability.
I only have but broken crystal balls and have also to watch and wait for what stupid/senseable things might come out.
Wars on themselves are not a problem (cynical isn't it ?) for as long as reasonably $-priced oil keeps flowing, one way or another. All this, to avoid destructive price-inflation, through dollar devaluation by oil, to sky rocket.

Should Iran be isolated,... destabilized from within,... invaded and occupied...in order to obtain a higher level of global stability, through stability in Iraq to begin with ?

Poland will (surprisingly) take some troops out of Iraq from 01/'05. Is it possible through friendly and limited isolation of the US, to construct some more International co-operation ? It is in nobody's interest of having a US getting unreasonable/unresponsible out of proportion !

But remember 986 that I'm only an amateur observer and my guesses are as good (or bad) as anyone's else's. There are no certitudes...only probabilities.
mamoose
(07/19/2004; 06:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123099)
Re Oil contest, Solomon Weaver and 968


Well, I have arrived back to the wilds of civilization (briefly) and have been catching up on my reading.

Firstly, I would like to thank the administration for the opportunity to participate in the "End of cheap oil" contest. I had the results saved, and there was some very intelligent thoughts expressed. I must admit, my views were somewhat more gloomy than most, but then, I believe the end of cheap oil arises from SHORTAGE, and I felt that many were concentrating overmuch on the price, and not enough on the shortage, nor, for practical purposes, the end of hydrocarbons, and the ripple effect therefrom. Time will tell.

Solomon; In your 123070 16July, you say; "it may succeed in killing many, but it would put USA on very moral high ground in the war on terror." 2 thoughts. How long did it take for the current administration to squander the high ground after 9/11? Do you think they might not again? 2) The moral high ground may not be as high as if the last couple of years had not happened. The US has alienated so many people in the last two years, that what could have been moral high ground, will now be "they got what they deserved", (true or not) with no moral high ground admitted. I am reminded of the quote that this or that would be "good advertising". So where can I spend all this advertising (or moral high ground) for things I need?

968- msg 123092 19 July
You say ". What percentage of physical gold would you recommend in a portfolio and why ?
There is no one size fits all answer. It depends on your own crystal ball of the future, and most are quite murky. I know mine is. I believe gold will achieve, briefly, a PURCHASING POWER PARITY price of between US$16,000 and $32,000 in todays terms. (Silver at over $1,000 an ounce.) As the US$ and other fiat goes toward zero, so will the price of PM's go toward infinity. Of course, the PTB will make it illegal to own gold long before that. They will try to save their treasuries, and their power. Based on your personal needs, and how you see the world developing, the answer for you will be more obvious. But definitely, the circumstances surrounding the POG will effect the POG. So, your question revolves around what the future will be like.

In my case, I have charted what conditions I feel are likely 1, 5, and 10 years out. From that, I deduced what (In this case, the POG might be.) and from that how I might fulfill my needs. I have also included a factor of how wrong I might be. (For sure I will be wrong, the question is how badly wrong.) I have established a core position in PM's (plural), and of course, am adding to them as the opportunity arises, just for insurance in case I am wrong. However, in the main, I am now moving on to other things. You will note that I feel the PM's are most important, since I have established that position first. But while important, they are not the ONLY things.

In fact, the End of cheap oil exercise was a great way of looking at some future conditions, and how that might effect you personally, and the world around you. As you saw, there were various opinions, some probably close, but also, for sure, all will be found to be wrong in some measure.

Personally, I prefer to prepare for my worst case scenario.


jenika
(07/19/2004; 07:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 123100)
Brisbane Australia newspaper article.
http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,10155781%255E3122,00.htmlI thought this might be of interest to the forum. Its an article on gold with a funny mention to oil.

ABN AMRO Morgans' key stock picks in the gold sector were Highlands Pacific, Lafayette, MPI Mines, OceanaGold, Oxiana Resources and Newcrest Mining. "The oil price is at all-time highs," he said

Unbelievably it even quotes this...

"Newmont believes it is a house of cards that at some point . . . people are going to want their money and there is not enough money behind the US dollar to back it so it is a bit like a return to the gold standard," Mr Giacomo said

Is there anyone on this forum following the Australian dollar exchange rate and the price of gold in Aussie Dollars?


Boilermaker
(07/19/2004; 08:35:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123101)
Rand - Gold Manipulation
Dear Belgian, Let me react to your message 123093...
"A few hundred tonnes per year can make "the" difference in the complex Gold containment regime !!! Cfr. a million or 2, more or less barrils a day have an enormous effect on the price (pricing).
There is a very good reason why the oil-cartel (OPEC) does exists and is accepted . Do the same reasoning for the invisible Gold-cartel. Oil and Gold do have swing-producers !!!"

Here is my reaction:
There is no question that incremental oil production such as 2 million bpd can cause rapid and large price fluctuations. However, the above-ground inventory of oil is at best but a few months consumption while the above ground stores of gold are many years worth of production and consumption. Further complicating the comparison of oil to the gold market is that physical gold consumption in Asian countries such as India (value oriented markets) are highly sensitive to price increases or decreases in the classical economic relationship, higher price means lower demand, while Western paper gold markets are often driven by momentum, ie., higher price means higher demand.

I think that gold price-capping of the past several years has on balance not stimulated higher over-all production but has led to reduced exploration and new mine development, a cycle that requires five or more years to be felt in the markets. Having experienced a long period of low gold prices I believe that many mines have been stripped of their high grade ore and cannot react to short term price fluctuations. For instance, according to some recent estimates nearly one half of SA's current gold production is at a loss with the existing prices. The mine owners of these super-deep mines are reluctant to shut them down because the huge costs and problems that are faced to reopen them when prices recover. The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) is forcing the mines to walk at the edge of a potential production cliff because they cannot go on like this for too much longer.
As an owner of some SA mining shares I feel their pain and would welcome a weaker Rand (and/or stronger gold). I really don't see the logic of a strong Rand providing stimulus for higher SA production. I do see the possibility of a strategy to weaken SA miners and their shares in order to make them more amenable to Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) objectives and that could be a SARB motivator. But even that motivator is difficult to envision given the " elitist broader Anglo-club, through the SA CB " makeup of the Governor's Board. I am left with two remaining scenarios;
-SARB intends to drive the mines into the hands of the international banking cartel such as Ari has suggested
-SARB is carrying out its stated mission to curb inflation by maintaining high interest rates a-la Paul Volcker's Fed regime years ago.

This is a fascinating case study, sort of an ongoing soap opera, that will be revealed in time. I hope to live long enough to see the conclusion.
Cheers and a good week to you Sir!
Smoochie
(07/19/2004; 08:55:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123102)
CHINA FALSE GOLD DEMAND FIGURES SCANDAL
Following on from my recent post discussing the revelation by a Chinese newspaper that in 2003 demand for gold in Guandong province in China was140 tons per annum.Well, THERE ARE 31 PROVINCES IN CHINA !!!!!!!!!!!!
I remind you that officially Chinese gold demand has been mysteriouslly static at 200 tons per annum since 1992 !!!!!!
If the other 30 provinces' demand was just 20% of Guandong, TOTAL CHINESE DEMAND PER ANNUM WOULD BE 980 TONS PER ANNUM in 2003.
This figure does not take account of the Chinese National Bank which regularly accumulates large amounts of gold (e.g. 200 tons in 2002);
Can you imagine that not one single gold analyst has questioned these official figures.WHY AM I HAVING TO DO THE WORK FOR THE THESE HIGHLY PAID ANALYSTS? Would MR. NAQVI of Barclays Capital like to comment on this in view of his recent totally misleading analysis of Chinese gold demand.And at the same time would he kindly reveal the size of Barclays gold short position.Anything less would be criminal would it not Mr Naqvi?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/19/2004; 11:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 123103)
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Belgian
(07/19/2004; 12:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123104)
@Boilermaker -smoochie
Goldmine forward goldsales (3,000 tonnes at its highest level) are evidence that the major goldmines are already (always were) under the control of the gold interventionists of duty ! Yearly goldmine output has more than doubled over the past 3 decades.

If,...IF the goldmine business were really a completely free business...within an uncontained POG environment,...they (the Anglo club) would already have maneuvered the Goldprice into the stratosphere with cartel like practices (cfr. platinum).
Never forget that goldminers are mining precious wealth that is part of the globe's National (CB) reserves ! Therefore the goldmining business is NOT (never was) like any other business. Think deep about the far reaching consequences of this.

@Smoochie : China Gold Association (China Daily-Bloomberg) : China is the third largest gold-consumer (230 tonnes in '03) and the fourth largest producer (200 tonnes).
These figures say "something". Much gold is smuggled in and out of China...unaccounted of course.

Warning : Statistical figures + their various interpretations are not recommended to build your strategic descissions on.

Reliable, strategically important and significant figures are rarely publizised !
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/19/2004; 12:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123105)
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http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlIf you are new to the gold market or feel you've been mistreated elsewhere, treat yourself to a genuine friend in the business. Your introductory step toward helpful information and investment assistance is just a simple click and short request-form away!
TownCrier
(07/19/2004; 14:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123106)
A report by the South African Mineral Bureau says...
http://allafrica.com/stories/200407190956.htmlHEADLINE: Strong Rand Drops Mining Down Pecking Order of SA's Economy

(Johannesburg) Business Day, July 19, 2004 -- There was a sharp decline in the contribution made by mining to the South African economy last year, according to a new report by the Minerals Bureau, the statistical arm of the minerals and energy department, writes John Fraser.

...the strengthening of the rand, which has been an important element to the decline. ....... last year mining contributed R78,5 billion to gross domestic product, or 7.1%, compared to 7.7% in 2002.

"The decrease in contribution, the sharpest since 1996, is due to ... declining gold production and lower rand prices received for ... gold and platinum group metals," according to the report.

------(from url)-----

The bigger factor in GDP contribution by the gold sector is certainly the change in domestic price being received for the gold that is being mined. One doesn't need to track down the true production statistics to know ahead of time that any measured change in production level would pale in comparison to the 70% strengthening of the rand against the dollar in the past two years, and a 30% strengthening against gold itself over that same time period.

Typically, in such a strained-profit scenario, whatever production the various miners are capable of would tend to be pressed to the maximum of capacity in order to stay alive. As Belgian says, if prices were indeed higher, these companies could afford to relax and yet still enjoy the same cash flow at the end of the day.

R.
J-Bullion
(07/19/2004; 14:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123107)
Comex Silver stocks
And another 1.1 million ounces withdrawn from the Comex Silver inventories today.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/19/2004; 15:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 123108)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


---- U.S. closing market excerpts ----

COMEX gold futures softened on Monday, pressured by a timid rise in the dollar... but closed above the key $400-an-ounce level for a seventh-straight trading session....

August gold fell $1.00 to finish at $405.80 an ounce, after moving in a session band between $408.40 and $404.80.

According to a Reuters poll released Monday, gold prices are expected to hold above $400 an ounce for the foreseeable future as the dollar stays soft and world security worries keep large investors hedging their bets on where money is safest....

...investors kept an eye on moves in the U.S. dollar ahead of comments from Alan Greenspan this week. "Despite the lack of U.S. data out this week, the currencies are still set to have a heavy influence over the course of the week with Alan Greenspan set to address the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, and the House Financial Services on Wednesday with his semi-annual monetary policy testimony," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London...

"Quietly, gold is inching back up to $410, [but] this time it's taking its time and filling in all the cracks in prices," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International.

Kerr estimates that $425 is the next key level for gold after it moves past resistance at the $415 level. "More downward pressure on the dollar and continued 'flight to quality' are continuing to support the gold above $400," he said...

------(see url for access to full news and the USAGOLD 24-hr newswire)------
Ag Mountain
(07/19/2004; 15:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123109)
@J-Bullion
If we consider what it really means for gold or silver to be __"IN"__ the COMEX inventory, I can't see how it matters very much if the figures grow or shrink or do nothing at all. What's your take on it?
TownCrier
(07/19/2004; 15:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123110)
A word from Japan
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20040720wo12.htmHEADLINE: Future economic trends require watching

(excerpts) -- .....we should not sit back and watch idly as the Koizumi administration manages its policies.

The government will soon start discussing reforming the social security system, including the pension system, which was the focal point in the upper house election.

Many people in recent times have tightened their belts due to widespread unease about the fate of the nation's social security system.

Public disappointment will only deepen if future government discussions fail to present any responsible blueprint and only end up showing a reform plan that has been reduced to no more than one merely postponing drastic reform.

Private consumption accounts for 60 percent of Japan's GDP. To avoid pushing private consumption down, the government needs to work out a social security system that the public can trust in the future.

------(from url)-----

Why not kill two birds with one stone? Encourage private savings in gold as a means to bolster citizen confidence in the well-being of their ear-marked retirement wealth, and at the same time these gold purchases will count towards propping up private consumption levels... for whatever benefit the economists see in those numbers.

The same rationale can be applied elsewhere that social retirement issues are smoldering.

R.
Ned
(07/19/2004; 16:15:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123111)
Smoochie
Just so there's two sides on the coin.......

Yes, hard to believe only 200 tons of investment demand from all of China. Yet hard to believe that 980 is a likely number given that's roughly one-third of annual production on the planet.

Suppose a typo on the 140 tons was actually 14.0. That times 31 provinces is 434 tonnes. More reasonable?

My point is any number is possible and coming out of China you'll NEVER know. That's why the analysts don't bother.

What would happen if all these Central bank sales in the last couple decades were ALL consumed by China and they have 30,000 tonnes and ALL the remaining central banks have less than 10,000? Possible? Laughable?

Some of the most repected like Howe, Venerosa, Bolser, Turk, etc., etc. write ultra-long winded essays on Central Bank gold holdings and the discussed (not even possible) ranges are alarming. If they don't know, no one does.

This gold craziness is going to roll along, roll along and then, one day BOOM, KABOOM, gold will be 4 digits, tripling or quadrupling in a week. Why? Because China and other suspected Asian Hung Fat and Dr. No's will pull the trigger. What trigger? The US dollar trigger my friend!

They will cash out of USD's my friend! Why? When? When they realize the massive beating that they take on US assets/dollars will be only a FRACTION of what they gain with GOLD!!

That's what you call WALKING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF GIANTS DUDE!!!

'Til that day my man!
Ned
(07/19/2004; 16:30:20 MDT - Msg ID: 123112)
9/11 hijackers slipped through Iran
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040719/IRAN19//?query=Iran"It was Iran, not Iraq, that helped some of the hijackers involved in the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, by allowing them to bypass border controls...."

"Against that backdrop, the new revelations about Iran fuelled criticism of Mr. Bush in Washington yesterday. "We focused so much energy on Iraq when other countries may have been more directly linked to 9/11," said Senator Richard Durbin, an Illinois Democrat."

-snip-

Three guesses what's next on 'the war on terror'.

Three guesses for the best hedge on mayhem.

Get you lots.
Boilermaker
(07/19/2004; 16:53:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123113)
Towncrier and Belgian- Rand effect on SA gold production
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/329795.htmPlease read the story at the URL shown and explain to me again how low Rand prices for SA produced gold are stimulating production.
I can find no evidence to support your opinions in this debate.
I would absolutely agree that some miners have sold their souls to the devil (gold cartel) but I have seen no evidence of continuing gold forward sales by miners. Most of them are touting their hedge book reductions.
mikal
(07/19/2004; 19:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123114)
US Bond Prices
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktw&guid=%7B412F0DA8%2DC179%2D4E38%2D8B8C%2DD00BF912F964%7D Treasury prices dip on eve of Greenspan testimony
Kate Gibson - CBSMarketwatch.com
July 19, 2004 - Last Update 05:12 PM EST
TownCrier
(07/20/2004; 00:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123117)
Hello Boilermaker
Some of your comments, especially about forward sales, may have been directed more toward Belgian, and he may have more to say on that account for you.

In furtherance of my own comments, I had hoped it was clear enough that I was not intending to suggest that overall production levels couldn't in fact be in decline (coincidental with a strengthening rand) as might be simply unalterable due to depleting resources and production constraints.

What I had tried to reinforce was that while facing "WHATEVER production the various miners are capable of", and that includes declining resources, the lower profit margins would tend to make the miners sqeeze their production capacity for every drop they're worth -- hence, rendering production levels that haven't declined so steeply during the year as might have otherwise been the case had higher rand gold prices prevailed.

To help underscore the very existence of the businessness philosophy behind the point I tried to empasize, we can turn simply to this phase in the article you cited. An excerpt reads: "South African mining houses attempted to counteract the weak rand gold price [due to the strong rand/dollar exchange rate being discussed] by mining at higher average grades."

Waht I was referring to was exactly that, and various other techniques used by mining companies, too, to boost production against, ultimately, what we all must admit is in fact a losing (production) battle toward final mine depletion.

R.
Belgian
(07/20/2004; 02:16:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123118)
@White Hills - @ Boilermaker
I would very much like to have a dialoque with you about the subject...but...we are all guests on a "Gold"-forum and all our contributions "must" be strictly and absolutely Gold-related !

The closiest thing to Gold is, officially, still the dollar currency and America is still the epicenter of the dollar-currency and system. It is because we are all concerned with the dollar, that the globe is concerned with America.

But the world is "changing"...rapidly...! Turning away from decades of, conveniently accepted and imposed, *dollar-involvement*, as damageless as possible !!!
This process is imvho, irreversable, White Hills...as is evidenced by the daily (provocative) events, taking place, globally . Maybe, I'm surprising you by saying that I personally don't like to see this happening !?

Let me finalise this half baked response with a very strong personal perception of mine : America and Americans, the former symbol of absolute Freedom, is being deceived on a massive scale. And when the strong are weakening...there is an unfortunate threath in the making. And believe me, that I wished to be dead wrong on this strong perception. Regards B.

@Boilermaker : What should, could a goldmine do...when its *profitability* is constantly being eroded !? Close the mine and go home...and let the groundwater fill the shafts !? Mine less volume and exhaust the richest, finite, veins...cut costs to the bone and mine 24/7 as to scramble for some insignificant dividends to please (?) the shareholders... !?
Goldminers are at the mercy of the "goldprice", dictated by...the goldprice interventionists ! Where is the "pricing-power" of the miners !!!-???
Nice to hear that "you" feel the goldminers' pain..."they" don't feel your pain !
How do goldminers have to compensate for rising-inflating costs and less "cheap" underground gold (their product), within a decades during goldprice containment !!!-???
Are you servicing your clients, today, at the same prices that were profitable a decade ago !? Miners have to dig deaper and deaper for the same $-price of the nineties.

Are goldmines... growth stocks !?

POG=$400 today, is less than 10 times the goldprice in 1971 !!! Is there so much cheap underground gold left to mine !? What was the price of a tube of toothpaste in 1971 ?

Gold has purposely been *** marginalized *** for a whole generation (25 years), Sir !!! PURPOSELY...do you hear me shouting across the Atlantic... !!! And all the rallies in the goldmine sector (stocks) over the past 2 decades, have been "organized"...artificially induced !!!
It are those who manage the POG that provoked the goldmine forward sales of "thousands" of tonnes !!! Goldminers had NO other choice than to give in to this gigantic exhaustion maneuver. Goldmine enslavement. Do you know any other industry that is selling forward its product, more than one year of total global production !!!-??? The global goldmine business did...was forced to do so ! And now you are stating that a decline in gold-hedges is a positive !?

Think about the Chinese modus operandi as to mature to a dominating seat on the world stage. How can we (the West) possibly compete with 1,2 billion Eastern ants in a region where the sun never sets !?
See the connection with fiat exchange rates (management of) in analogy with the rand theory.

Very confusing...isn't it, mate ?
Belgian
(07/20/2004; 04:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 123119)
Reflexion on Ned at Smoochie....
The world's CBs have 2 reserves at their disposal : 1/ The dollar-reserve - 2/ Gold-reserves.
Facts : Next to the dollar-reserve, an increasing amount of euro are joining the reserve packet and CBs do exchange-reshuffle, some of their gold-reserves, between each other.
This movement in itself is the clearest evidence that something very fundamental IS changing.

We are all (including the respected authorities) continiously struggling with the "correct" (or biased) interpretation(s) of these changes !!!

Is it a "change", oriented at further consolidation of the established dollar-system or is it a "change", designed to move away from that dollar-system !? It can't be a combination of these two mainstream tracks. Most are still heavily struggling with this facet. Very understandable of course.

Indeed Ned, I do regulary reread also what has already been said by the many respected authorities. I've come to the conclusion that it are the major CBs that are the globe's ultimate power-houses.
Let's put two (historical) statements from the major CBs against each other, again : Alan G. (FED)...CBs stand ready to sell Gold...and Wim D. (ECB)...Gold remains an important asset...!!! Those very secretive (ultra discrete) CB-power-houses, have been giving some very powerfull (opposing) signals on Gold...the management of Gold as the second biggest reserve-asset in their respective vaults ! When I do reread old essays, I must conclude that no authorities have been pulling the right conclusions, for the long(er) term, out of these subtle, strong, statements.
In the Far East (Japan) 1997, the then PM Hashimoto, caused furor with his statement (threat) on the dollar management (its exchange rate stability) and the sale of US treasury bonds for Gold !!!

The 3 major blocks (US/EU/Asia) have been telling the world how divided they are,...how they feel about the globe's ongoing dollar-system. All 3 have been expressing themselves, through *GOLD* the metal (not the many substitutes)...that barbaric, marginalized relic !!! Indeed Ned, these fellas were talking fundamentally,... about the dollar !!!

Who dares to state that the dollar is already a lost cause and that this dollar-affair is in the process of unwinding...gradually,...orderly !?
That the dollar is NOT the wealth we think it is...worse, the dollar is even losing its claim on wealth, rapidly !

I do keep on repeating the question, WHY the euro-Gold-concept (FreeGold), remains out of all the Big Pictures that these Gold authorities are painting !? The fact of ignoring (ridiculing) even the thought of it...makes me automatically very sceptic on the authenticity of the painted pictures.

Boilermaker
(07/20/2004; 05:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123120)
TC and Belgian
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=USD&c=ZAR&rd=*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=1995&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2004&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=I do agree that miners, trying to make the best from a weak gold price will high-grade to the extent possible. They do not have the option as do manufacturers of moving their mine offshore to find lower labor costs. I also agree that for many years the miners have been enslaved by their bankers forcing forward sales.

I guess my main point was that in the specific case of SA and their central bank it appears that they are acting responsibly to reduce the rate of inflation that had been accelerating a couple of years ago due to the weak Rand at that time. See the URL for the Rand/Dollar chart.

SA miners (labor force) have been getting hefty wage increases lately and threatened to push inflation even higher. The mine owners, given a weak Rand and strong gold prices were in a position to grant higher wages (wage-price spiral effect). The SARB, seeing this has decided to increase the pain level of the mine owners and perhaps other sectors realizing that they are the ones who must resist the wage demands of labor.
I still do not believe the strong rand is a measure to influence gold production or drive the mines further into the clutches of the cartel. Perhaps we have become so cynical that we cannot accept the possibility that a central bank can act responsibly.
Boilermaker
(07/20/2004; 06:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 123121)
Greenspan Spin Session
Greenspan will be at the Senate today and House tomorrow painting glowing pictures of strong economic activity with little signs of inflation. I am interested to see how the markets react. The SM has been weak recently and we should expect a nice rally. As for gold, I look for a thrashing of the recently placed paper longs.
968
(07/20/2004; 07:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123122)
Federal Reserve - Gold
http://centre.telemanage.ca/links.nsf/articles/BCC271ABCF5F6136852568E000613B47I read a few articles about who owns the Federal Reserve. According to these articles, the Fed is owned by "private shareholders". If this is the case, who owns America's Gold ? Is this the Fed's gold or belongs the gold to the American Goverment ? I know there is a similar discussion in Belgium (the Belgian National Bank is for 49% privately owned). After the last goldsale the private shareholders went to court because they wanted their piece of the pie.
J-Bullion
(07/20/2004; 07:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123123)
AG Mountain
Whether or not anyone on this board believes that the comex silver stocks going up/down are important doesn't matter. The clowns that trade the paper contracts on the Crimex believe in that stockpile. Markets are based on popular opinions/emotions etc, and in the silver market if those stockpiles continue to be depleted you'll see silver go ballistic, much like copper is doing lately.
Knallgold
(07/20/2004; 09:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 123124)
The manipulation must be at its end
"..We probably should expect gold and silver to be
hit hard Tuesday and Wednesday as Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies to
Congress -- the usual drill.."

Chris Powell in yesterdays GATA mail-now watch Gold and Silver today.No new tricks anymore.The emperor has no clothes.Interesting is that not many seem to play this,its like a dead market (or the summer doldrums).

Federal_Reserves
(07/20/2004; 09:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123125)
Rumors of Terrorist Dry Runs on the planes
http://www.womenswallstreet.com/WWS/article_landing.aspx?titleid=1&articleid=711Terror in the Skies, Again?

By Annie Jacobsen

A WWS Exclusive Article


Note from the E-ditors: You are about to read an account of what happened during a domestic flight that one of our writers, Annie Jacobsen, took from Detroit to Los Angeles. The WWS Editorial Team debated long and hard about how to handle this information and ultimately we decided it was something that should be shared. What does it have to do with finances? Nothing, and everything. Here is Annie's story.

On June 29, 2004, at 12:28 p.m., I flew on Northwest Airlines flight #327 from Detroit to Los Angeles with my husband and our young son. Also on our flight were 14 Middle Eastern men between the ages of approximately 20 and 50 years old. What I experienced during that flight has caused me to question whether the United States of America can realistically uphold the civil liberties of every individual, even non-citizens, and protect its citizens from terrorist threats.

On that Tuesday, our journey began uneventfully. Starting out that morning in Providence, Rhode Island, we went through security screening, flew to Detroit, and passed the time waiting for our connecting flight to Los Angeles by shopping at the airport stores and eating lunch at an airport diner. With no second security check required in Detroit we headed to our gate and waited for the pre-boarding announcement. Standing near us, also waiting to pre-board, was a group of six Middle Eastern men. They were carrying blue passports with Arabic writing. Two men wore tracksuits with Arabic writing across the back. Two carried musical instrument cases - thin, flat, 18" long. One wore a yellow T-shirt and held a McDonald's bag. And the sixth man had a bad leg -- he wore an orthopedic shoe and limped. When the pre-boarding announcement was made, we handed our tickets to the Northwest Airlines agent, and walked down the jetway with the group of men directly behind us.

My four-year-old son was determined to wheel his carry-on bag himself, so I turned to the men behind me and said, "You go ahead, this could be awhile." "No, you go ahead," one of the men replied. He smiled pleasantly and extended his arm for me to pass. He was young, maybe late 20's and had a goatee. I thanked him and we boarded the plane.

Once on the plane, we took our seats in coach (seats 17A, 17B and 17C). The man with the yellow shirt and the McDonald's bag sat across the aisle from us (in seat 17E). The pleasant man with the goatee sat a few rows back and across the aisle from us (in seat 21E). The rest of the men were seated throughout the plane, and several made their way to the back.


See link for more>


knotakare
(07/20/2004; 10:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123126)
thanks Belgian
"Gold has purposely been *** marginalized *** for a whole generation (25 years), Sir !!! PURPOSELY...do you hear me shouting across the Atlantic... !!!"

yes, I hear you Belgian, and I appreciate that you don't grow tired of getting this important message across.

Those that understand this are in a very small minority.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/20/2004; 10:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 123127)
Over 30 years of gold market experience is at your service, just a click or call away...
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Get a head start on the gold market!
TownCrier
(07/20/2004; 11:53:54 MDT - Msg ID: 123128)
A good lead to follow
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.htmlLast week one of the Eurosystem's member national central banks bought, yes, you read that right, BOUGHT �1 million in gold coins. This is not a first or one-off affair; it is the second such action in recent weeks.

Why not follow this good example of adding gold coins to your own holdings of reserve assets. Make a call to the friendly professional staff at USAGOLD~Centennial and discuss a diversification strategy that fits your investment goals. It's an ideal collaboration -- you bring unequalled knowledge of yourself to the table, and they bring expertise on gold coins & bullion and how to get it safely to you at best prices.

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R.
nickel62
(07/20/2004; 11:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123129)
Treasury owns the "gold"
Not the Federal Reserve. I am not sure if it is still there anymore but the US bullion is supposed to be held by the US Treasury in custody for the American people.
Ag Mountain
(07/20/2004; 12:22:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123130)
@968:
"According to these articles, the Fed is owned by "private shareholders". If this is the case, who owns America's Gold?"


Ah-ha! Now that we're playing slow-pitch softball I'll gladly step up to the plate and take a swing.

The U.S. Department of Treasury owns "America's gold" (as you're calling it) ever since the federal government seized it from the banking system in 1933.

As a private "shareholder" in America, meaning I'm a citizen, I'm not even holding my breath to ever see my fair share of that gold. Does anyone???? That's fine with me and that's why I'm using this private channel to get my hands on gold personally because that's the only kind of gold in the world that can be used for the exact good of a person and his family. Meaning personally-owned gold, not collectively-owned gold.
Ag Mountain
(07/20/2004; 12:38:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123131)
@J-Bullion
That's a great point about it only matters what the clowns think, I forgot about that! But if I think about it at the same time, for every clown on the wrong side of the COMEX trade, isn't there somebody who knows better on the right side of the trade? So if the clowns are doing battle with people who know better, I can't see how the clowns can force prices ballistic on the basis of something that their smarter opposition knows is immaterial to the game at hand. How can the clowns win in a battle of wits when they're busy chasing rainbows?
Belgian
(07/20/2004; 12:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123132)
@KnallGold...Gold-manipulation at its end....?
Maestro Greenspan, always provides the music the organizing comit� wants the demanding public to hear. Banggggg...$-up...$-POG knock down $6 tones...and pianissimo on the $-POO...
The manipulation-reflexes are still functioning, Sir. But there are indeed good signs of a faster building/reacting counter force, when one keeps closely observing the intra-day price behaviors of our famous quartet ($-�-POG-POO).
Evidence that the manipulative interventions are coming under increased stress and are becoming less evident.

The FED's gratis paper-avalanches meet strong counterparties, increasingly ($)paper-averse, and both parties are constructing this funny market/orchestra, directed by Alan's talking ritme stick. And if maestro Alan desires some more stockato, he simply lowers the interbank IRs as to help liquidity by encouraging more fractional reserve lending. Exactly the opposite of the Basel II accords !!! Also remember misetich posting about the ECB's furious criticism on the IMF's adress ...monetary expansion-ism...-ISM !

If you want an easier to understand example of (concerted) intervention...Boeing and Airbus agreements on state subsidies.

At a given moment one or more parties start to exagerate in their cheating to such an extend that the others can't ignore/accept that cheating. That's when the joint interventionism breaks up and phase B starts (FreeGold against unfree gold).

@986 : Treasury Gold is de facto state property ! The Belgian National Bank shareholders can whistle after the Gold they could never have claimed, anyway...cfr. goldmine-shareholders can never claim the underground gold ! They also have to be happy with the dividends that the goldmining possibly produces as is the case for the Belgian shareholders of the BNB.

J-Bullion
(07/20/2004; 13:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 123133)
Ag Mountain
In the short term, the clowns can win because that is how the game is played with 'paper silver'. In the long-run if the physical silver is gone to support the paper pyramid they are toast. Which is exactly what will happen at some point in the near future for gold and silver (when I say near future it could be weeks to a few years). I believe that is the exact reason why everyone invests in silver/gold now. The nice thing about silver is that it is an industrial metal as well as a monetary metal, and the manufacturers will hit the comex eventually or go out of business (assuming they can't get physical silver elsewhere). Then the proverbial SWHTF, as when silver blows so goes gold and with it peoples faith in the paper fiat system. It's actually ironic as the longer they cap the price and suppress it, they make it unprofitable to mine, the quicker the melt-up will happen as there is less physical to support the growing demand.
Liberty Head
(07/20/2004; 13:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 123134)
Another Sign

A major gold mining fund has recently voted to increase the amount of physical gold the fund can own from 5% to 10%.
This allows the fund more flexabilty to avoid unreasonable risk.

I think this is a smart move and underscores the value of holding the physical.

Best Wishes
Ag Mountain
(07/20/2004; 13:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123135)
@J-Bullion
I can't agree with your prediction that manufactures will hit COMEX. They can't "hit" it for the same reason that the inventory numbers don't really matter, and the reason is that the COMEX doesn't own the inventory that's listed under the fancy umbrella of its namesake-approved depositories. Just because somebody keeps their bullion in a high-profile storefront window for the public to see doesn't mean it's available for the public to have. So in that sense, it doesn't really matter if it's in the window or not as long as the smart half of the players know it doesn't make any difference either way to the playing of the game.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/20/2004; 14:07:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123136)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- Closing US gold market excerpts ---

Gold futures closed lower Tuesday, with strength in the U.S. dollar pressuring investment demand for the precious metal. But the contract hasn't fallen below the $400 level since July 7. Gold prices are lower "out of concern that Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan may say something positive about the economy," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures...

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped nearly $4 Tuesday on light fund selling and a lack of buying interest spurred by the sturdier tone of the U.S. dollar and quieter overall conditions ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to the Senate. The most-active Aug contract settled $3.70 lower at $402.10 per ounce.

Dealers stressed that while gold's price decline was notable actual sales volumes were fairly modest, and that a lack of buying interest was just as responsible for the losses as any heavy sales orders.

They said players appeared content to sit on their hands ahead of Greenspan's testimony on monetary policy later Tuesday and Wednesday, and await the U.S. dollar's reaction to any comments on the outlook for the U.S. economy and interest rates.

Support for Aug gold is expected around $399.70 and then at the 100-day moving average just below there. The 100-day moving average around $398.15 is deemed a likely cushion on any further short-term weakness...

-----(click url for access to full news and USAGOLD's 24-hr newswire)-----
R Powell
(07/20/2004; 15:03:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123137)
J-Bullion
Thanks for watching and reporting on the amount of silver held in the Comex warehouses.

Although I don't believe silver users obtain much, if any, supply from this source, there is some silver available there (not much as compared to yearly use), even if it might someday prove to be the silver of last resort.

Silver use is industrial and as such, silver should be priced according to the law of supply and demand. It's not that simple as investor sentiment often alters the price of anything, I suppose, both higher and lower. But, over the last few decades, yearly use has outstripped new supply so that the market has been forced to draw down from existing stores. How great these stores were at any time in the past OR how much available silver yet remains are the unknowns (unknowable?) clouding this market. I hold to the theory that existing supplies are not infinite and further that industry available silver may soon be much harder to obtain BUT the market analysts have long ago given up on analysing silver from any supply/demand viewpoint. So...will supply have to become critical before the price reflects the age old law of supply and demand??

It is this anomaly in silver analysis that separates silver (and gold?) from other similarly traded commodities. The copper market (one example) has a definite number (readily accessible) of existing copper. The decline in this number has moved the price of copper. Where are the silver stores? How much is still available? When the well runs dry, users will pay to take delivery from Comex, from the eligible category available there, no?

The industry prices silver...this is reflected in the Comex price. No amount of paper trading will/can overpower the law of supply/demand. This is, as always, just one poor man's opinion even if not consistent with the conspiracy, price manipulation believers.
rich
Belgian
(07/20/2004; 15:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123138)
A.G. 's answer on oilpricing in $-�-yen....
Greenspan, * the central banker * was answering this question with the evidency of $-� parity in the background (his mind) ! Then he smartly refers to a $-� flat exchange rate period, where there is "of course" no visible evidence of OPEC pricing oil in function of the euro.
Greenspan is as smart as a very experienced old fox ! IBM was supporting his optimism with deeds and instant Dow results. Yes, indeed Sir Alan...the "extra-ordinarry", concerted flexibility is truly amazing !!! Nobody else could bring this on a plate as smartly as Alan does. Bravo !
TownCrier
(07/20/2004; 15:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 123139)
Seeds, roots, and stems of inflation
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/HH/2004/July/testimony.htmFrom testimony of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan presenting the Board's semiannual 'Monetary Policy Report to the Congress', appearing before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs:

"...the low interest rates of recent years have allowed many households to lower the burdens of their financial obligations. Although mortgage rates are up from recent lows, they remain quite attractive from a longer-run perspective and are providing solid support to home sales. Despite the softness of recent retail sales, the combination of higher current and anticipated future income, strengthened balance sheets, and still-low interest rates bodes well for consumer spending.

"Consumer prices excluding food and energy--so-called core prices--have been rising more rapidly this year than in 2003. For example, the twelve-month change in the core personal consumption expenditures price index stood at 0.8 percent in December of last year and climbed to 1.6 percent by May of this year. Core inflation, of course, has been elevated by the indirect effects of higher energy prices on business costs and by increases in non-oil import prices that reflect past dollar depreciation and the surge in global prices for primary commodities. But the acceleration of core prices has been augmented by a marked rise in profit margins, even excluding domestic energy corporations."

"...the increases in average hourly earnings of nonsupervisory workers have been subdued in recent months and barely budged in June. But other compensation has accelerated this year, reflecting continued sizable increases in health insurance costs, a sharp increase in business contributions to pension funds, and an apparently more robust rate of growth of hourly earnings of supervisory workers. The larger wage gains for supervisory workers together with anecdotal reports of growing skill shortages are consistent with earlier evidence of rising wage premiums for skilled workers relative to less-skilled workers."

"...the economy is not yet operating at its productive capacity, which should help to contain cost pressures. But we cannot be certain that this benign environment will persist and that there are not more deep-seated forces emerging as a consequence of prolonged monetary accommodation."

----(text of testimony at url)---

Beware the forces with "deep seats"!

R.
TownCrier
(07/20/2004; 15:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123140)
How is your portfolio diversified? With bonds? Or with gold?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/HH/2004/July/testimony.htmHere is Chairman Greenspan's stylized articulation that the principal component of bonds (that is, bond prices) are in store for a fall in value.

"(I)n the process of returning the stance of policy to a more neutral setting, at least some of the capital gains on debt instruments registered in recent years will inevitably be reversed."

With bonds so clearly facing into a bear market, gold is the natural choice as your safe haven.

R.
TownCrier
(07/20/2004; 16:02:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123141)
Bonds will fall. Here it is again in more obvious delivery
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/HH/2004/July/testimony.htm
AG: "To be sure, financial intermediaries and other creditors that extended loans or purchased securities in recent years at relatively low long-term interest rates will sustain capital losses as rates rise."

With bonds facing a bear, holders can decide to continue holding and take their lumps, or exit for a more suitable alternative. Choose gold. Now more than ever.

R.
Gondolin
(07/20/2004; 16:17:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123142)
926 post 922123: The Secret History of Money
http://www.celticsurf.net/freeworld/money/index1.htmlYour comments on who owns the Federal Reserve hit the nail on the head. This applies not just to the Fed but to all the Central Banks. I recently read an interesting website, titled the Secret History of Money which whilst I don't agree with all the contents had interesting facts on the creation of the Bank of England, upon which all other Central Banks are modelled.

I'm sure many of the esteemed contributors to this site are familiar with much of this, but much of this was new to me, and it also explained in very easy language a lot about how our Financial Systems (Govt bonds,Taxes,Fractional Banking) work at their most basic level. I'm sure many will comment on the contents and would welcome any debate, in either support or refute of the claims to further enlighten myself and any others.

Excerpts as follows:

...After a while, the goldsmith's must have noticed that only a small percentage of their depositor's ever came in to demand their gold at any one time. So cleverly the goldsmith's made out some receipts for gold which didn't even exsist, and then they loaned it out to earn interest.

A nod and a wink amongst themselves, they incorporated this practice into the banking system. They even gave it a name to make it seem more acceptable, christening the practice 'Fractional Reserve Banking' which translates to mean, lending out many times more money than you have assets on deposit.

Today banks are allowed to loan out at least ten times the amount they actually are holding, so while you wonder how they get rich charging you 11% interest, it's not 11% a year they make on that amount but actually 110%.

THE TALLY STICKS (1100 - 1854)

King Henry the First produced sticks of polished wood, with notches cut along one edge to signify the denominations. The stick was then split full length so each piece still had a record of the notches.

The King kept one half for proof against counterfeiting, and then spent the other half into the market place where it would continue to circulate as money.

Because only Tally Sticks were accepted by Henry for payment of taxes, there was a built in demand for them, which gave people confidence to accept these as money.

He could have used anything really, so long as the people agreed it had value, and his willingness to accept these sticks as legal tender made it easy for the people to agree. Money is only as valuable as peoples faith in it, and without that faith even today's money is just paper.

The tally stick system worked really well for 726 years. It was the most successful form of currency in recent history and the British Empire was actually built under the Tally Stick system, but how is it that most of us are not aware of its exsistence?

Perhaps the fact that in 1694 the Bank of England at it's formation attacked the Tally Stick System gives us a clue as to why most of us have never heard of them. They realised it was money outside the power of the money changers, (the very thing King Henry had intended).

What better way to eliminate the vital faith people had in this rival currency than to pretend it simply never existed and not discuss it. That seems to be what happened when the first shareholder's in the Bank of England bought their original shares with notched pieces of wood and retired the system. You heard correctly, they bought shares. The Bank of England is a privately owned bank which was actually set up by investors buying shares.

These investors, who's names were kept secret, were meant to invest one and a quarter million pounds, but only three quarters of a million was received when it was chartered in 1694.

It then began to lend out many times more than it had in reserve, collecting interest on the lot.

This is not something you could just impose on people without preparation. The money changers needed to created the climate to make the formation of this private concern seem acceptable.

Here's how they did it.

With King Henry VIII relaxing the Usury Laws in the 1500's, the money changers flooded the market with their gold and silver coins becoming richer by the minute.

The English Revolution of 1642 was financed by the money changers backing Oliver Cromwell's successful attempt to purge the parliment and kill King Charles. What followed was 50 years of costly wars. Costly to those fighting them and profitable to those financing them.

So profitable that it allowed the money changers to take over a square mile of property still known as the City of London, which remains one of the three main financial centres in the world today.

The 50 years of war left England in financial ruin. The government officials went begging for loans from guess who, and the deal proposed resulted in a government sanctioned, privately owned bank which could produce money from nothing, essentially legally counterfeiting a national currency for private gain.

This privately owned bank was and still is known as The Bank of England.

Now the politicians had a source from which to borrow all the money they wanted to borrow, and the debt created was secured against public taxes.

You would think someone would have seen through this, and realised they could produce their own money and owe no interest, but instead the Bank of England has been used as a model and now nearly every nation has a Central Bank which is privately controlled.

These central banks have the power to take over a nations economy and become that nations real governing force. What we have here is a scam of mammoth proportions covering what is actually a hidden tax, being collected by private concerns.

The country sells bonds to the bank in return for money it cannot raise in taxes. The bonds are paid for by money produced from thin air. The government pays interest on the money it borrowed by borrowing more money in the same way. There is no way this debt can ever be paid, it has and will continue to increase.

If the government did find a way to pay off the debt, the result would be that there would be no bonds to back the currency, so to pay the debt would be to kill the currency.


end Excerpt.

Gondolin: The site then goes on to describe the massive conspiracy of the Rotheschilds et. al. being the major shareholders owning the Central Banks and their own Merchant banks, and their private Merchant Banks then lending money to both sides in the Napoleonic Wars, the American Civil War not to mention WW1, long after sides had lost any chance of winning these wars, perpetuating longer and costlier wars that we are now paying our massive taxes to pay off till this day. Additionally they suggest that Nicholas II's refusal to allow a Central bank to operate in Russia was sufficient cause for massive backing of the Bolsheviks and the overthrow of White Russia.

Admittedly this does all reek of massive conspiracy theory, but it only takes 2 to make a conspiracy...

However the link also points out that the gold Standard was a tool used and favoure by the banks as the limited supply of gold would allow them to control a monopoly over, with an in depth of the creation and demise of the US greenback,the demonetisation of silver at BoE request, creation of the fed etc.and the continued thread of Bankers manipulative and reprehensible actions for their own advantageat the expense of the world.

Any comments on the accuracy of this portrayal of monetary history would be welcome.

I'll conclude with a couple of the many quotes from within this interesting link:

"Let me issue and control a nations money and I care not who writes the laws."
Amshall Rothschild

"If the American people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system - there would be a revolution before morning..."
Andrew Jackson

"The hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency: their sole object is gain."
Napoleon Bonaparte

Federal_Reserves
(07/20/2004; 16:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 123143)
Greenspan's expertise.
Today Greenspan claimed the recent rise in inflation, and the June/July economic slowdown are short term problems. Growth is going to rise, AND inflation fall in the 2nd half.

Know this: Greenspans private economic forecasting firm (before he became a public servant) went broke from lack of clients, and he has never predicted a recession before it arrived. Greenspan's speciality is waiting for the hammer to come down, then he reacts to take care of the "damage".

Ned
(07/20/2004; 16:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123144)
Gold traders can't seem to make up their minds...
We were told in April and May the Fed was going to aggressively hike rates to stem rising inflation. Result...gold down.

Greenscam says today, au contaire, that inflation is going to fall. Result....gold down.

So what's it going to be boys inflation up or inflation down? And for Pete's sake don't be fickle about your theory regarding the POG/inflation..

..IT'S CAN'T BE BOTH WAYS MORONS!!

Ned
(07/20/2004; 16:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123145)
Belgium
Presenting the other side of the coin again in fairness...

You said,

"Alan G. (FED)...CBs stand ready to sell Gold...and Wim D. (ECB)...Gold remains an important asset...!!!"

The US has not said (recently at least) that it wants to sell gold. Germany (many times) and France (once recently) have publicly announced the possibility of selling gold. The Swiss, the stalwards of gold are selling "tonnes"!

Alan said, "CB's stand ready to sell gold" . For some odd reason it's not (at least knowingly) his CB doing it. Why?


And the special phrase(s) about Alan's statement come in the sentences after "...stand ready to sell gold should the price rise." There is a nifty afterburner if someone has the full quote/speech.

Regards.
Aristotle
(07/20/2004; 18:02:48 MDT - Msg ID: 123146)
Gondolin
Even Turgon himself up there in his secret city probably knew a guy couldn't walk or mingle very long in Gold circles without eventually coming face to face with some variation on that anti-banking theme you've cited. We've seen it before and we'll all see it again, so it's best if we all figure out sooner or later what to properly make of it.

The history always stands up reasonably well to scrutiny, so I'll grant them that much. Unfortunately, the same can't be said about the rigors of their logic leading to the diabolical conclusions they offer their gentle readers/listeners.

In poker terms, I'll "see" your three famous quotes and "raise" you this one of my own.

"If our so-called "corrupt" banking institutions did not, in fact, enjoy among their customers a foundation of popular support, the system as we know it could not and would not have been elevated to the heights at which we see it integrated into our modern markets." --- Aristotle

So who has it wrong -- is it the masses who use the System to their personal benefit, or is it the small handful of anti-banking poison pens who would rather have none of it?

Now before I get a raft of crap from that camp, let me just as quickly add that there's certainly room for improvement in the current state of our banking/money evolution, but that, my friends, is ANOTHER story. One I hope you know well enough to know that it's on it's way to restore a more perfect harmony the the order of these affairs of the realm.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Chris Powell
(07/20/2004; 19:40:28 MDT - Msg ID: 123147)
Greenspan's famous comment revealing the purpose of gold leasing
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's famous comment revealing that the purpose of central bank gold leasing is to suppress the gold price was made to the House Banking and Financial Services Committee on July 24, 1998. Greenspan's full statement that day can be found at the Fed's Internet site here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

The relevant paragraph:

"The vast majority of privately negotiated OTC contracts are settled in cash rather than through delivery. Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. (Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years.) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Life,Liberty,Property
(07/20/2004; 21:10:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123148)
South African gold
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39450Attached is a link from one of the best news sources on the web, one that is often months ahead of the traditional news outlets. Perhaps I am overly pessimistic, but I disagree with the presmise that it is immune to the Zimbabwe syndrome. South Africa might remain a source of gold during the likely forthcoming problems, but I will predict only with private military forces (like the one mentioned in the article) protecting them. I believe the situation is likely to get worse than the article hopes, meaning South African production may decrease or become somewhat eratic.
Camel
(07/20/2004; 21:55:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123149)
Aristotle
I imagine our banking system does "enjoy " quite a bit of support among certain circles. At last count corporate debt in America came to about 9 trillion. How wonderful to be able to have that kind of money to throw around. What great fun to be able to mastermind all these mega-billion dollar expansion projects around the globe. I recall hearing one high Walmart executive explain how they had the city of Austin mapped out in a grid with the nodes of the grid three miles apart and that they planned to build a new Walmart at every point on the grid.In other words completely blanket the city with Walmarts every three miles in every direction

In the past I've likened this to the beast from the movie Forbidden Planet. Monsters from the Id materialized by a labyrinth of unlimited energy only in this case the beast is fueled by unlimited credit. Unlimited credit bestows unlimited power and it is this unlimited power that seeks to rule the world.
Aristotle
(07/20/2004; 22:33:20 MDT - Msg ID: 123150)
Heya Camel
There's no need to merely "imagine" the popular support when all you need to do to field test the notion is to ask around.

We'd be hard pressed to survey Main St. USA and find any significant proportion of people who haven't made use of any one of the following. Home mortgage. Car loan. Checking account. Savings account. Certificate of deposit. Wire transfers. ATM card. Credit card.

Let's face it. People do like their conveniences. So do I. But I've taken a deeper look at the ins and outs of the "beast" and have seen where there's a sickly cancer that needs gotten rid of. It isn't fiat currency, but Gold "Money" (Gold credit, Gold derivatives, etc) that's got to go. Never elsewhere have I seen so much Wealth treated so shabbily, to the unforgivable detriment of of us wee folk and peasants worldwide who have no idea that their immediate access to a better purchasing power is currently fettered by artificial Gold-related financial devices.

But in all fairness, some of them, myself included, through this very same device have been able to get hands on far more Gold than would have otherwise been possible. So I guess the thing to do is eat the apple staying mindful of the worm that caused it to fall early from the tree, and gather our strength for a more proper harvest when the time is ripe.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Belgian
(07/21/2004; 01:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123151)
@Ned
Of course, your remark seems a very logical one, as the other side of the coin. But I was writing in the context of "interpreting" what happens within the incredible "labyrinths" of CBs and their Gold. WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENS TO EURO GOLD ?...WHAT IS THE PURPOSE ?...etc...
The dollar wishes Gold down...the euro is percepted as a gold seller, but marks it market and says it is an important reserve !!! A labyrinth of paradoxes ! And we have to try to pull a straith line through this. Quo vadis Gold ?

All those Gold statements have one thing in common : pluri-interpretability ! Nobody ever gets the chance to ask, what is exactly meant by each and every statement...which correct context is behind it. Did you ever heard someone asking where all that Gold has gone ...and in what form ?

We permanently ask ourselves...WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GOLD ?
Most correct answer is : A LOT !!!
Then we try to guess who's for or against Gold and in what sense. And more importantly,...how are these two opposing forces evolving through the thick fogs !? Who is deceiving who and who is, an outlined Gold policy, dissident !? Most recently, Noyer said that goldsales were out of the question. Again, without any further specifications (full context) that could possibly dissolve some Gold fog. Grrrrrrrrush...
They simply don't want us to know (suspect), where the possibilities for Gold in the many futures might go ! This in itself is already extremely interesting, especially after 25 years of Gold marginalization !

We keep on searching all together, Ned !
misetich
(07/21/2004; 05:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123152)
Greenspan says US growth sustainable
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373854535&p=1012571727088Snip:

He played down the importance of recent weaker consumer spending, which he said probably reflected the impact of higher energy prices.

The Fed chairman said that that stronger demand growth had contributed to higher than expected inflation in the first half of the year. He stressed that transitory factors including higher energy prices had boosted the inflation rate.
*****************
Misetich

On one hand a few months ago, Sir Greenspan said higher energy prices were here to stay - on the other he now calls it "transitory factors"

He admits consumer spending is deteriorating ("probably)due to high energy prices though he expects "sustainable growth".

The US economy according to the Feds has been growing in the 4-5% range in 2004 YET unemployment hasn't budged. He now forecasts the economy to grow in the 3 1/2 % range in 2005 with unemployment falling by 1/4 to 1/2%

Jobs...jobs...jobs and lack thereof is NOT TRANSITORY - it is the real dilemma - the real new economy which is creating havoc for Sir Greenspan & Co and it will become his nightmare in the months ahead, once the election campaign is over

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/21/2004; 06:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123154)
Reality Check:U.S. Home Builders:Growth Slows Sharply in June Jul 16 / 10:41 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?prod=62&disp=single_story&banner=mainwire_featuresSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - The spring sales season ended on a
flat note in June with large and small builders offering an unusually mixed assessment of a market that had been running on all cylinders for the past two years, say American residential builders.

The slowness appeared to be confined to Ohio and other secondary markets as chinks began to appear at the lowest-price ranges, where volume sales are often the highest, builders say.
............................
Most think the market remains healthy, with too much emphasis being placed on a few troubled markets, like Ohio and Dallas, while much of the rest of the nation continues to hum. Nationally, inventory levels are restrained, with only scant pockets of inventory overhangs in some
small markets.
.......................
A small North Carolina builder, however, described June as a "fair" month.
....................
Morrison has also seen "slight shortages" on concrete that have prompted minor delays in construction.
................
"Market conditions in our three Midwest markets (Columbus, Cincinnati and Indianapolis) have weakened, particularly as
they relate to our entry-level business,"
***************
Misetich

Housing has been the best sector in the last few years and the slowdown from the torrid growth pace must be expected in light of higher borrowing costs, higher input material prices

The real question is whether a SATURATION POINT has been reached since supposedly the % of Americans owning homes has now reached 70% or thereabaouts

The bastion of economic growth have been housing and the resilience of the automobile industry - BOTH of these sectors have benefitted by low IR environment and in the auto sector earnings have been derived from financing activities rather than profits in the manufacturing sector where considerable market share has been lost to foreing sources

The underpinning of a country's currency is its economic growth - yet the US $ has been depreciating in spite of 'above average economic growth" reported in the last year

Since growth is being forecasted to slow in the year ahead, the value of the US $ is expected to correct further

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/21/2004; 06:57:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123155)
Earnings: Speed Bumps in '05?
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jul2004/nf20040719_0441_db014.htmSnip:

For about a dozen years Chuck Hill has been Wall Street's dean of earnings estimates.
.......................
Hill thinks earnings season is going gangbusters so far but sees signs of a rapid slowdown in 2005 that investors don't seem to have priced into current stock valuations.
...........................
In general, numbers for the quarter are terrific. Analysts started out thinking Standard & Poor's [500-stock index] earnings would be up 19.6%. We will certainly beat those numbers -- by more than normal -- ending up 24%
..................
But earnings growth is decelerating to a level that could be less than what we typically see following a recession. From 24% earnings growth in the second quarter, analysts are expecting 14.9% for the third quarter. I think that will end up at 16%. For the fourth quarter, analysts are now expecting 15.5%. I think we'll end up at 14%.

The real issue is the first quarter of next year. We expect only 5% earnings growth. Analysts are at 7.3%. That's a pretty rapid drop-off -- down to the mid-single digits.
.....................
Where are the trouble spots?

Well, Intel's (INTC ) results were sort of lukewarm. It's an indication that all this upgrading of PCs is not materializing to the degree anticipated
........................
With retailers, it's not so much earnings that are the problem as weak same-store sales reports..........That, coupled with weak auto sales for June, waves a caution flag.
......................
It's when we get into 2005 that I wonder if the market is really prepared for the kind of slowdown we think is likely to be under way.
..................
**************
Misetich

Asset Deflation remains the real threat going forward as the economy slowsdown - It was expected for corporate spending to increase - yet it has not materialized to the expected levels

In a scenario where corporate earnings growth is expected in the 5-7% range for 2005 it is doubtful job creation will be created

The irrational exhuberance shown by Sir Greenspan celebratory vicotry lap "of deflation has been beaten" may have been a bit too premature

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
968
(07/21/2004; 09:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 123156)
@ Aristotle @ Belgian
Hello Ari. I see your point in message # 123150, the Fed is there for you and me. But I'm surprised you see the gold derivatives market as the principle cancer in the US banking system. Like Camel said, the Fed created a credit bubble of enormous proportions. And like Belgian said, "the CB are the powerhouses of our globe". Doesn't it scares you the Federal Reserve, which is the powerhouse of the powerhouses, is owned by private banks ? Billions of dollars of US taxpayers money goes to the Fed for paying interest on bonds the Fed has bought with money created out of thin air ?
Perhaps all this explains a bit of the different money management systems of the Fed and the ECB !!!
@Belgian : don't you think the private Belgian shareholders of the BNB will get a (paper) compensation ? I agree they will lose every lawsuit in Belgium, but on a European level ? Even the BIS lost a lawsuit against Deminor on the Hague Tribunal.
Aristotle
(07/21/2004; 11:01:41 MDT - Msg ID: 123157)
For 968
Well, okay, we can keep peeling this onion.

You may think you've reached the bitter core of the matter with your comment, "Billions of dollars of US taxpayers money goes to the Fed for paying interest on bonds the Fed has bought with money created out of thin air," however, there's more to it that might mitigate some of your ill will.

First of all, the Fed should kick it's PR department in the pants because apparently you, along with most other dissidents, are not aware that the Federal Reserve turns over the lion's share of its profits to the U.S. Treasury each year.

I can't speak for you specifically, but I would tend to think that the folks that held your negative opinion would be greatly appeased by that revelation. The typical taxpayer tends to prefer his taxes being kept low, and current evidence shows he isn't inclined to riot if the Government borrows rather than taxes. You can almost hear Johnny McMainstreet whispering his silent prayer, "Thank God the Treasury is able to sell its bonds to *somebody* to raise billion$ because I'm all tapped out."

Look, I'm not trying to convince you that central and commercial banks here and abroad are next in line for deification. They're not. But they do have popular support, for generally good reason, and there's no getting around it. It begs the question, "Why would you even want to???" (Get around it, that is.)

And, no, it doesn't "scare" me that we find at the depths of the Fed a base of private shareholders. Of course not! Hell, I'd have thought any group of independent-minded Goldbugs would be the first to hold up privatization in high praise as the very best model for enterprises in a market economy. No? Well, I'm yet to be convinced that a government holding its own purse strings can be trusted not to abuse the privilege. Look at any number of banana republics, or anywhere else that a currency has lost itself in a sea of overprinting zeros. That's why so many CBs are independent these days, and that's also why the ECB isn't allowed to directly fund the government debt of any of its member countries. It's how it's gotta be -- prudence being the better part of valor in these scenarios.

All of this banking stuff doesn't scare me in the same way the ocean doesn't scare me. I know how to swim. More importantly, I know the difference between water and terra firma.

And THAT'S what brings me back to my single largest point of contention with the state of the banking system today. Insofar as it has derivatized and paperized Gold out of its physical essence and into a form of accounting credit, the banking system has (to continue the metaphor) blurred the distinction between ocean and coastline. The result is that all of us are left with no choice but to tread water in the middle of a boundless sea. Even the best of swimmers will drown eventually if they are given no spot to rest.

That's the role for Gold. Whereas the US/dollar/IMF style of banking puts us all forever out to drift, the European style that is still taking shape and gaining ground sees the prudence in restoring to the once endless sea a distinct Golden shoreline. Complete with a lighthouse, out there in the breakers, painted black on white, "Marked-2-Market."

Come ashore you tired and ragged castaways and enjoy a better way of life.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Rimh
(07/21/2004; 12:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123159)
Great Metaphor, Ari!
"Whereas the US/dollar/IMF style of banking puts us all forever out to drift, the European style that is still taking shape and gaining ground sees the prudence in restoring to the once endless sea a distinct Golden shoreline. Complete with a lighthouse, out there in the breakers, painted black on white, "Marked-2-Market."

Thank you for once again providing a useful metaphor to help us all understand where we are at this stage of the game! Indeed, the 'paperization of gold' has made it hard for the uneducated public to have any appreciation for the real stuff, but it has given me opportunity to 'get it while it's still cheap'.

While I look forward to higher prices, I cannot resist the golden opportunity presented by those pesky derivatives to acquire the real thing. And I am confident that some day soon we will all look back on this time when gold was such a bargain and wish we had taken better advantage of it.
Belgian
(07/21/2004; 12:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 123160)
@986
BNB shareholders will get (be compensated) what the BNB-paper (share) in fact was : An eternal (state)bond, carrying the interest of the day, through the dividend that the BNB share was producing.

This illustrates to me that the ownership (private) of a CB is subordinated to the state that controls it. W've already gone through the debate on "property"...degree of ownership. Even precious Gold as your private property has been confiscated by the state collectivity in the most free and liberal nation (USA) of the modern world.

In this context, I would remind all forumers for the umpthieth time, that all taxes on Gold Wealth are being eliminated ! Most recent example was Turkey (Towncrier). And as a matter of fact, Turkey is visiting France in the framework of its EU candidacy.
This means nothing else than that there is a *need* and a *will* to get back to an element of real, genuine, unencumbered ownership/property...for at least in the first stages of the renewed FREEGOLD ambition !!!

Thinking about the backgrounds of the present organization of TaxFree bullion is of much more fundamental importance than analysing ad nauseum, how POG is actually being contained through the paper maneuvers...since the eighties (1980 ATH) !!!

But this message of taxfree bullion (Physical Gold) is understandably, NOT appealing to the masses,...because those that know that Gold exists, only know it (associate it with) as paper gold...gold-derivatives. They don't care that the wealth-metal can be taken into ownership without paying taxes for those who do contain Gold's price...rule its pricing ...for the time being !

Funny that nobody ever remarked this blatant contradiction : Those who control the Goldprice abstain from collecting taxes on the metal (bullion) wich price, they do control !!!-???
And BTW, the costs to buy and keep any fund are 3 times higher than the cost of obtaining Physical Gold property in your possession !!! And any fund can become totally worthless (zero)...PHYSICAL GOLD NEVER DOES (did)!!!

In this upside down world, one prefers to pay more for less (paper) and refuses arrogantly-ignorantly to pay less for more (Gold). So be it...imvho, for-the-time-being !

Has anyone remarked that the $-POO is recouping its $1 loss from yesterday, despite a (temporary) stronger dollar (Green-effect) !? Can we conclude that the maestro-effect is fading out and the cruel reality (infladada) is knocking on the door as to demand its rights !?
968
(07/21/2004; 12:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123161)
@ Ari
Thanks a lot for your great insights, but I don't get smarter without asking questions ! After all, if noone asks questions, there wouldn't be a discussionforum here ! I admit I was wrong !
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/21/2004; 12:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 123162)
True Wealth: If you have it, you can FEEL it.
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold coins
Why should YOU buy gold?

Because no one else will do it for you.

USAGOLD-Centennial can help.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

misetich
(07/21/2004; 12:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 123163)
Greenspan Tries to Reassure Businesses
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=5&u=/nm/20040721/bs_nm/economy_greenspan_dcSnip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) told Congress on Wednesday U.S. businesses remain guarded in their spending and hiring, but said the economy could benefit next year if their caution lifts.

In a second day of testimony on the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report, Greenspan told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee corporate America had shown an unusual reluctance to make new capital investments, build inventories and take on permanent hires.

"We are far from behaving the way we typically did (in other expansions)," the Fed chief said in answering questions before the panel, pinning the corporate constraint on a number of "caution-creating factors."

"To the extent these are capable of being assuaged, what it probably will be doing is rather than creating a large surge in economic activity, is to gradually stretch it out, if indeed a degree of confidence gradually returns," Greenspan said. "That would be one the reasons why a gradual expansion which we now seem to be experiencing does bode well for next year."
*****************8
Misetich

Sir Greenspan is out of touch - his rosy scenario for 2005 contradicts the marketplace which sees corporate earnings slowind down significantly going forward to the 5-7% range in 2005

MS Roach recently referred to the Feds as the biggest hedge fund - attempting to control the uncontrollable -

To make matters worse for the chairman, CHINA'S growth continues - over 9% and thus assures continued rising commodities and energy prices

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/21/2004; 13:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123164)
Top performing newsletter turns bearish
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/040720/c62f376de50241cb982e5b680e913680_1.htmlSnip:

On Monday afternoon, one of the select few newsletters whose market timing advice has beaten a buy-and-hold over the past 15 years turned bearish.

This newsletter is Medical Technology Stock Letter, edited by John McCamant. He recommended sales for all but three positions from his letter's Aggressive Portfolio, and the liquidation of half of all positions in the service's Model Portfolio.
.................

McCamant says that he turned bearish because he "cannot discern a catalyst for a bullish turn."
.................
"The situation in Iraq is weighing heavily on the already shaky investors' psyche as any problem in the Middle East results in a spike in oil prices. A rise in the price of oil has a negative ripple effect throughout the entire economy as the rising costs of energy are a broad negative for the economy and its potential recovery. This, combined with the pending election creates as much uncertainty as we have seen in some time, and the market has no stomach for uncertainty. The resulting downturn in stock prices leaves the growth sector, of which most biotech companies are a part, particularly vulnerable...
**************
Misetich

The stock market has been behaving "unusally" - stuck within a narrow range -

The inevitable battle appears near - market forces vs "the phantom" hand

In normal circumstances the rush-out from the stock market would flow toward bonds or money market funds

With negative yields persisting - Physical Gold is the ultimate investment of choice

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Aristotle
(07/21/2004; 13:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123165)
968, I'm glad of your questions. More folks oughta try it.
Rimh,
Thanks for the kudos, and right back atchya. Your additional remarks help pave a clearer path for others to understand and join the movement.

If you're looking to further refine the presentation, rather than saying, "I look forward to higher prices," which tends to taint the motive with elements of greed, it would be advisable to say, "I look forward to the restoration of Gold's fundamental (physical-based) valuation."

I'm glad you could relate to the swimming/ocean/shore metaphor.

I'd just finished an interview with co-managers of a $500 million global fixed-income (i.e., bond) investment fund, and after all their talk about their team of analysts analyzing this and formulating that to assess sector volatilities and preferences from among the global field of alternatives, the strongest impression I was left with was, "Sheeeeeeeeeesh... these guys sure are swimming hard -- simply to stay afloat!" Further, if it takes a whole team of specialists to keep their head above water, how is our local hero, simpleton Joe McMainstreet, expected to survive on his own?

With their team of experts analyzing and strategizing, formulating and prioritizing as a full-time professional endeavor, the fund managed to gain a shade over 5% during the past 12 months, beating out the 4.1% global bond fund average of its peers. Again I say, "Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh. That's a lot of professional swimming effort just to stay afloat."

If those clowns had simply joined me at restful ease here on the Golden shoreline, they would have seen the market value of their Gold grow by 14% over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, their team of expert analyzers could have spent their time catching fish and getting tan all without hurting the fund's bottom line in their inattentiveness to analyzing anything.

What's more, if we were to look again at their five-ish percent positive growth (which is an expression in dollar-terms) and put that into euro terms, we'd see that they actually showed a loss because the dollar declined against the euro by ten percent during the past 12 months. However, had they retired to the Golden shoreline with me, even in euro terms they would have seen the value of their Gold grow by 5% in this timeframe.

Why paddle around endlessly in risky shark-infested waters, risking exhaustion and consumption? Life on the Golden shoreline is the no-brainer.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Great Albino Bat
(07/21/2004; 13:56:46 MDT - Msg ID: 123166)
Ari: why people won't enjoy life on the Golden shoreline.

Aristotle: good post on managers swimming against the paper current with great waste of energy, while we goldbugs can sit back, relax and make more by just watching.

I had the experience, which I related here time ago, of an old lady whose savings I put into gold for her. She was doing just fine, but when gold fell back from $430, she got nervous - although she was way ahead anyway. (Got in at $331.00)

Why the nerves? Reading the papers, that's why.

And that's why all these financial types won't consider the precious metals. To do so would tarnish their reputations, because "serious financial men don't deal in that stuff."
In today's culture, it is SO hard to have a personal point of view, and stick to it. Much easier to muck around, doing what the others do; even if you as a financial manager have little to show for it, at least you are "orthodox" in stupidity.

The GAB
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/21/2004; 14:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 123167)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


--- excerpts of US market close ----

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled to their lowest level in 11 days Wednesday on heavy fund and dealer selling spurred by the sharp gains in the U.S. dollar...

The greenback bolted to 13-day highs against the euro and 12-day highs on the U.S. Dollar Index on investor buying and short covering as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan talked up U.S. economic prospects, dismissed recent signs of bad news, and reiterated that the central bank would maintain a measured tightening stance going forward to fend off inflation...

The most-active Aug contract settled $4.80 lower at $397.30 per ounce...

Aug dropped initially to the $398 area before tripping stop-loss sell orders pre-positioned around $397.50 that shaved another $2 off the price.

Some good levels of physical bargain hunting and short covering emerged at those lows to stem the tide by late morning, and kept prices above that level the balance of the session.

....should Greenspan's comments be deemed fully digested by the markets and the short covering spurt in the U.S. currency seem to have run its course, sources agreed that gold stands to gain ground over the near term should the recent strong tone of physical offtake be sustained...

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)---

HEADLINES:

Greenspan: Tax Cuts Prevented Severe Recession -- TheMilwaukeeChannel - Money

Gold Dinar fiat fiasco continues -- theminingweb.com

Rajasthan lures bullion trade with lower sales tax -- The Business Standard

Higher costs, lower gold price -- theminingweb.com

Treasuries sink as Fed's upbeat message resonates -- Reuters
misetich
(07/21/2004; 14:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 123168)
UPDATE - China crude imports at new record, stockbuild seen
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040721/energy_china_crude_1.htmlSnip:

BEIJING/SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports hit a record of about 2.8 million barrels a day in June, prompting speculation that aside from a boom in demand, Beijing may be quietly building inventories

Latest data from Chinese customs on Wednesday showed that in June China imported 11.27 million tonnes, or 2.82 million barrels a day (bpd) of crude, 47 percent above June 2003, despite government measures to slow activity to put the brakes on the economy.
.................
Analysts project oil demand in the second biggest consumer after the United States will rise by anywhere from 500,000-800,000 bpd this year to over six million bpd.
***************
Misetich

The Red Dragon's economy is still going strong, though according to their reports overheated sectors are being cooled

China's is reported to have roughly 23 days of buildup inventory and are having difficulties (tankers etc) obtaining the required amounts to increase stored oil

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe has just began and its effects are being underestimated

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/21/2004; 15:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123169)
Reality Check:U.S. Packagers: Q2 Demand Grows, Prices Up Jul 21 / 11:33 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/timeout.jspSnip:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. packaging manufacturers are in
the midst of the first truly robust market in almost 10 years, with domestic demand for boxes outpacing their ability to supply a hungry market, and some of the largest producers caught off-guard by the suddenness and magnitude of the upturn.

Inventories have dwindled to multi-decade lows and customers are on allocation, setting the stage for two price increases since March with more increases likely in the next six months, they say.

The biggest strain on supply seems to come from agriculture, which has come off an excellent growing season and urgently needs to transport perishable products.
...................
Harwood has raised his prices by around 20% in two stages since March
...................
*************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is being felt by materials, fabricators, chemical plants, and manufacturers, travel industry ....The secondary shock, is beginning to emerge at the consumer level, and corporate earnings level as price inflation is in the double digits ...

The little display of unsustainable "Fed power", with a rebounding US $ is a farce ... now that the show at the Capital Hill is over - we return to our regularly scheduled downward spiral ...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Belgian
(07/21/2004; 15:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123170)
Orthodox in stupidity....dixit The GAB !
Exactly GAB...But, here in Euroland...there are some changes. Banks have "decimated" the offering of their financial "products" gamma (funds-circus)...decimated in one big go ! The "get rich while you sleep" mantra is abruptly silencing. Much of the savings from the boomers goes into bricks.

The message of the oil-fundamentals + stagflafla consequences are getting through. It is now generally realized that in the best case scenario, we might be able to consolidate the reached level of prosperity on condition that we start working harder for less !!! The wave of classic (not neo) conservatism (smart orhodoxy) is rolling back in. One mouse-step closer to Ari's Gold shores.

Banks start to adopt an attitude towards the dollar, analog to the attitude they had towards the Italian lira in the old days. They want to get rid of the green paper (products) as discretely as possible.

When the orchestrated benign MSFT-effect on the Dow, fades so rapidly...it might be wise to call... Youston, we.... !?

$-POO analysis says that oil should already be priced at $94/pb, today. Not only because of emerging world consumption patterns + dollar reasons...but also because of what is politely called, "discipline" by the (all) oil producers, wich is the political facet of the equation.
misetich
(07/21/2004; 15:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123171)
FED INSIDER: MEYER ON GREENSPAN
http://www.cm1.prusec.com/yararch.nsf/(Files)/a_072004.pdf/$file/a_072004.pdfSnip:

Is Greenspan Right About Bubbles? According to Meyer, the stock market bubble was a result of the "Greenspan put." This was the general feeling in the markets that
the Fed Chairman wouldn't raise the federal funds rate to restrain stock prices but he would intervene quickly to cushion a sharp decline. The FOMC basically has one tool
(the federal funds rate) to achieve two objectives, i.e., full employment and price stability. Stopping bubbles�which are hard to recognize until after they've burst�is
one objective too many for the Fed. Nevertheless, Meyer regrets that there was no formal discussion of raising margin requirements, which Mr. Greenspan was against
doing. Meyer believes the FOMC was too accommodative during much of the second half of the 1990s.

In his conference call with us, he lamented:
�how should monetary policy respond to the possibility of the bubble?
Should we prick it? What should we do? And the Chairman said, "I answered this question, in my December 1996 speech." I said "We don't know what to do, Okay. That's the end of the story. Move on."
And so there was never a full discussion inside the committee�the staff never did a study of [policy] options... And I think that's one of the most
disappointing things looking back on the experience. Mainly, what we did was we re-level[ed] the equity prices every forecast. And the staff always forecasted there'd be a 20% correction. And then, every year, they went up
20%, instead of declined by 20%, and this just went on and on and on.
I think he [Mr. Greenspan] honestly believed that it was not our role to try to determine where fair value was, and try to push that market in that direction. And honestly, I think we all got in to the situation where we
believed, we didn't really know what to do if there was a bubble, so let's just put blinders on and pretend there isn't one. And I think what I was telling
the staff at this point, as we began to sort of tighten, was Please, just do me one favor, don't come in to my office with a simulation of the spontaneous
correction and equity markets any more. Don't take the pressure off us.
Okay? Every time you tell them that it's going down by 20, it goes up 20. Just re-level, hold it there. Let us do what we need to do. And I just promise you this, if it's an equity bubble, and there's a discontinuous impact, we'll do
what we need to do after the fact. And that's what we were prepared to do�respond after the fact rather than do something.In my opinion, Mr. Greenspan is wrong about bubbles. Asset inflation like consumer price inflation distorts economic behavior and poses as much of a threat to achieving the Fed's goal of full employment with price stability. Asset inflation like consumer price inflation leads to a misallocation of resources. Too much capital pours into the asset that has attracted the speculative frenzy. If the Fed doesn't prick the bubble, it
gets bigger, creating enormous excess capacity and oversupply. This overhang takes a long time to work down, putting deflationary pressures on the economy. When bubbles
burst, deflation becomes a serious problem for the economy, and the immediate consequence is often high unemployment. Mr. Greenspan's unwillingness to have his
staff research this issue and to offer policy alternatives is simply bizarre, in my opinion.
Here is his side of the story:
It is far from obvious that bubbles, even if identified early, can be preempted at lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible financial destabilization�the very outcomes we would be seeking to avoid. In fact, our experience over the past two decades suggests that a
moderate monetary tightening that deflates stock prices without substantial effect on economic activity has often been associated with subsequent increases in the level of stock prices. Arguably, markets that pass that type
of stress test are presumed particularly resilient. The notion that a welltimed incremental tightening could have been calibrated to prevent the late 1990s bubble while preserving economic stability is almost surely an
illusion. Instead of trying to contain a putative bubble by drastic actions with largely unpredictable consequences, we chose, as we noted in our mid-1999 congressional testimony, to focus on policies "to mitigate the fallout when it occurs and, hopefully, ease the transition to the next
expansion."
**************
Misetich

Interesting comments by Meyer on Greenspan

Worthwhile Greenspan comment to frame up:

"We don't know what to do, Okay. That's the end of the story. Move on."

At least he's candid behind closed doors.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
OvS
(07/21/2004; 15:59:22 MDT - Msg ID: 123172)
Aristo - in Greek: meaning the best.
Of late, my dear Aristo, you have
outdone yourself and done honor to
your chosen name.
The section of the ownership of the
Federal Reserve does indeed pacify
some of us of the greater unwashed.
Between you and especially Belgian
and a few others we are indeed blessed
with aristo gold teachers.
Next, I would invite this elite group
of learned and thinking men to tackle
the meaning of life...Cheers...OvS
Kev
(07/21/2004; 16:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123173)
@ 968 , Belgian (Belgian Central Bank)
968:
Belgian Central Bank (NBB) isn't 49% privately owned but 50%. And it was founded/established with 100% private capital and the State got the 50% for free or close to free.

Belgian:
I agree NBB shareholders will probably get compensated with some kind of eternal state bond (or at least they will try this solution � because it's about the only way they can bail themselves out in a decent way) which will value the NBB share somewhere between 4500eur to 6000eur at which level a lot of private hands will have difficulties not accepting it; certainly with the current share price which has fallen to 2700eur.

Yet, there is a group of die-hards who want to take the thing to European Courts together with advisors & lawyers Deminor & Modrikamen. And I'm one of them. I was at the two latest Annual Meetings and only for the way they treat us they (the State and the puppets of the Board of Directors & Regents) deserve to be dragged before an �independent� (what's this word worth these days? � well, at least more independent than the Belgian I-pee-in-my-pants-when-the-CBgovernor-barks-Courts) European Court Tribunal.

The way they stole the 230mln eur out of the NBB treasury (and so from every private NBB-shareholder) last year to help to avoid a budget deficit (Belgian State) is an outright disgrace. The road which Deminor now takes by holding the Directors personally (!) liable is imo the right one. I don't think all these puppets which sit in the Board of Regents will like this.

The way the NBB-stock didn't make the Bel20 national stock exchange index surely was due to the enormous pressure from governor Quaden on the decision makers of the Euronext Exchange. The new Bel20 rules which came out a couple of days ago now seem to be adjusted to the situation that NBB in no way can make part of the index.

They really deserve a BIS kind of treatment with all possible legal ways to make them pay a fair price when they buy-out the privately owned 50% of the shares.

And I haven't even talked about the personal intimidations one has to bear when going to the Annual Meeting. The first year I went to the meeting, they came to me and said they would take legal steps because I have a website where I call them �Despots�. Now, the last Annual Meeting they hired a photographer who took photos with a tele-lens of all private shareholders. Pure intimidation. And I could tell you more; that there are indications that the telephone lines of the die hard private shareholders are being tapped for example.
Aristotle
(07/21/2004; 16:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 123174)
The choir's been preached to!
Finally finding time to sort through my email, one item stood head and shoulders above the rest and I wanna make sure you guys are all in on it, too. If your hanging out at the forum to begin with, you ought to make sure you're taking things a step further -- make sure you get yourself on the distribution list for MK's gold market newsletter for USAGOLD clients. (It goes without saying that you oughta be getting yourself some Gold anyway, so maybe you're already getting it and know what I'm talking about.)

Well, I can't share any of it with you because it's marked 'PRIVATE.' I'll respect that by staying sufficiently vague. The part where it talks about half of the thing happening in just ten days out of nearly 5,000 was a stroke of genius. I can't think of a better citation of actual case studies to make the point so well. Thanks MK. You're preaching to the choir, and the choir's better for it!!

Get on the list, people. If you're a johnny-come-lately, beg for the back-issue.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Black Blade
(07/21/2004; 17:01:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123175)
Searching for a Lost Generation of Miners
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=5733576
Snippit:

Miners may still do backbreaking, grimy work, but nowadays they don't owe their soul to the company store and the pay is relatively good. But just when these workers are in high demand, they have become a dying breed. As coal and metal prices soar with China's hunger to fuel its industrialization, there is a shortage of miners with the skills to locate minerals and extract them with sophisticated equipment. Getting this work force will cost more for mining companies, whose stock prices have more than tripled in the past year. "Labor costs will go up," said Andrew Miller, an energy and utilities specialist with Ernst & Young in St. Louis. "Mining is more high-tech than it was in previous years and needs a skilled labor force to do what it does."

National Mining Association figures for all types of mining -- coal, metals and nonmetals -- show the number of underground and surface workers dropped from about 190,000 in 1985 to some 88,000 in 2002. It's not just miners who are in short supply, but engineers and geologists, too.
During the last two decades, natural resources have taken a back seat to more attractive and lucrative high-tech and computer careers. With a decline in students opting to study mine engineering, several colleges have dropped such programs.

"Just as the demand for mining workers appears poised for expansion, the capability to provide new mining professions has significantly deteriorated through downsizing and disappearance of university and other programs offering this very specialized education," said Bruce Watzman, vice president for safety, health and human resources at the National Mining Association. He told a congressional panel this month that since 1985, 10 mining departments in U.S. schools have closed. Ernst & Young's Miller said the dearth of students studying mine engineering was similar to a shortage in the oil and gas industry.


Black Blade: As I have said over the last few years here and elsewhere. Besides, I don't need the competition. ;-) The exploration geology side is depleted and most have left and few universities teach economic geology anymore. Good for me - bad for the short-sighted mining and petroleum companies - cool!

Black Blade
(07/21/2004; 17:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123176)
Natural gas crisis looms, study warns
http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=15f57709-a7a2-4d1d-963a-a95b0751179c
Western Canadian reserves not enough to ease North American supply crunch

WASHINGTON - North America is heading toward an inevitable natural gas crisis that will not end until dozens of liquefied gas plants are built, according to a new study. U.S.-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in the study released at the weekend that even the prospect of new finds in Western Canada will not be enough to head off the looming crunch. "Western Canada has growth potential left, but it won't be enough to balance the North American market," Daniel Collins, CERA's associate director in Calgary, said in an interview.

The energy research institute based in Cambridge, Mass., found that despite near record levels of new onshore drilling in the United States, gas production in the country continues to fall. Even exports from Canada, the U.S.'s largest foreign supplier, cannot make up the difference. "North America's natural gas supply shortfall -- the clear inability of domestic supply from available lands to keep pace with demand -- will challenge the North American natural gas market for the next several years," the study says. "If no measures are taken to boost supply or dampen demand, North America is set to experience the highest sustained prices in the industry's history," it concludes. In fact, North America added 200,000 megawatts of new power capacity -- twice that of nuclear power -- in recent years with 94% of that gas driven, the study finds. "Residential and commercial customers will see higher bills, impacting pocketbooks and the overall economy," CERA says.


Black Blade: Gee - now where did we here this before? Yep, right here and predicted about 4-5 years ago with several warnings, including the "Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" essay. It will only get much worse with time - many US companies have moved offshore as a result and still demand rises. Better get prepared while you can - even Alan Greenspan has been harping on this lately. Get out of debt and stay outta debt, stash emergency funds for several months, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance (note inflation/stagflation are rearing up), and start a program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Federal_Reserves
(07/21/2004; 17:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 123177)
Greenspan Testimony
Mr. Greenspan is a lame buck with a remaining term of only 18 more months. The bailing wire he has tied around the
global economy is holding it together for now. The post-bubble prescription of record stimulus (tax cuts and rate cuts) have prevent a total breakdown. Greenspan does a workman like job with Congress, and has his canned answers ready to play. I thought he look tired today, really looking old. Is the strain starting to show? It is a much more difficult job keeping a broken bubble pumped with air, then it is creating one. He could easily die in office like B.Strong did in 1928.



Gandalf the White
(07/21/2004; 18:43:37 MDT - Msg ID: 123178)
Check out the GOLD P&F chart ----
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]⪯f=GTHREE little RED "O"'s today !!
Get ready for the NEXT REVERSAL --- it should take us into the $419. area !
<;-)
Ned
(07/21/2004; 19:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123181)
Special on CNN
911 Commission Report due to be released tomorrow. Intelligence agencies failed 10 times, 6 under Bush, 4 under Clinton to prevent 911.

Scathing report/news.
Ned
(07/21/2004; 19:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123182)
CNN asks.........
"Who do you blame for 911?"
Socrates964
(07/21/2004; 20:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123184)
P&F
There is a horizontal count of 4 columns, hence theoretical target is 392 + (4*3*4) = 440. Evidently, 419 is a staging post.
Camel
(07/21/2004; 20:59:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123187)
Ari
There was actually a revolt on main street back in the 1990's led by Ross Perot whose central proposition was that the 350 billion interest paid on the national debt was dysfunctional and unsustainable .Clinton co- opted this issue and made it one of the central themes of his administration while Perot faltered offering the "bizarre " excuse that the Republicans were going to try to attempt to smear his family if he didn't get out of the race.

I have been very poor most of my life so am hardly one to be giving any financial information but the impression I've formed is that the Fed is a consortium of private banks, that the New York fed is preeminent among these and that the recently merged JP Morgan -Chase Manhattan Bank is at the heart of it all. Chase is the remnant of the old Rockefeller empire and is said to be the major owner of the Federal Reserve. There is also still a European connection, the Rothschild's of Germany, Rothschild of Paris , Lazzard Brothers etc

Yes indeed it is good to know the common folk are running the show.

You say " the lions share of the profits is returned to the Treasury" Are you referring to the taxes paid on the banking profits? I wonder if you would flesh this out a little and put some hard numbers on it. How much is a "lions share" About 2. 3 trillion of the federal debt is in the hands of foreign entities so they don't pay any taxes on this part at least. So how much of the 350 billion of tax money paid for interest is returned to the treasury?

By the way, there are many people that don't qualify for a car or real estate loan or credit card . You usually run into them riding the bus, or in the blood banks, or in the early morning at the temp worker labor pools.There are also many who have over-extended themselves on credit cards and are paying very high rates and their lives are a living hell of trying to keep running on the treadmill ever faster and faster.Current credit card debt is now about 1 trillion.

There was actually an era in American history ,however misguided, when an effort was made to reign in the big monopolies of JP Morgan, Rockefeller ,Gould,and the robber barons. In fact , the municipal power utilities that existed up until recent times were formed as a reaction to the price gouging of their private owners and is often cited as an example of free enterprise run amok.

At its founding the Fed was an extension of the European banking system to this country, a prize long sought by the Europeans however after WWII the US was preeminent in every way while Europe was in ruins.In the long term view the new Europe's is an attempt to regain its former identity after a long period American hegemony . They have observed full well the excesses and abuse of the American financial system and are playing the gold card to capture the wealth floating around because of excessive money creation











Smeagol
(07/21/2004; 21:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123190)
Counting our blessings humbly

Smeagol, there is a parcel for you on the entry hall table. - F.B.

...eh, what's thiss? (r-rr-rip...) O! It's our Silver Precious Contesst Prize! (holding it up to catch the lamplight) It is very beautiful!

...you know, precious, they doesn't HAVE to have those Contessts... no, they doesn't even have to have a Forum with doors open all (leasstwise the likes of us)... and they certainly doesn't HAVE to award real, ssolid Gold and Silver... but, they DO!!
...sss...we sseem to recall a recent posst that in a far troubled country called Madagascar, a year's wages for ssome was about US$400, which means thiss ssingle ounce of Silver is a week's pay there...(silence, looking at the coin)...yess, we are indeed blessed to have thiss, precious.....

...and we ssincerely thanks you, Ssir MK, and all those at USAGOLD/CPM.

S.

P.S. the dialog these last two weeks has been exceptional! We doesn't have much to ssay, sso we're taking it all in...


Ach! financial storm!
There! the Golden lighthouse beam
Steady as she goes
Black Blade
(07/21/2004; 22:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123191)
Cavan Man

I think you are mixing "apples and oranges" here. The poor souls in the WTC and Pentagon had no chance and were in no position to take a stand - I am sorry for your cousin as he was not in a position to save himself. The fourth plane some passengers did take a stand and unfortunately were not entirely successful but did prevent further devastation with a show of collective force. Sometimes the prey when possible must become the predator.

I have a number of friends and contacts who are Wahhabi (the state religion of Saudi) and therefore all Saudis are by law essentially Wahabbi. My friends are non-believers but are Wahhabis due to fate of birth. They say that the clerics are idiots and such. The true Wahabbi believes that it is a duty to kill non-believers to be true to Islam (as they see it). Until recently it was even in Saudi school textbooks. The Royals live in fear and stand ready to flee to "safer havens" should revolution break out. Wahabbism is a relatively minor cult in Islam and relatively new as opposed to the various Muslim sects. Ever wonder why the leaders of these terrorists never sacrifice themselves but use others? Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Waverider
(07/21/2004; 22:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123192)
Me too Precious Smeagol....
...my beautiful Silver coin arrived today for the price guessing contest. A very BIG thank you to our generous host.

I haven't had a chance to post much lately, but when I come to the forum to read/relax and find conflict, it pains me. Cavan Man, I appreciate your feelings and I really don't believe Black Blade intended anything disrespectful to those who lost their lives. In fact, while reading here tonight I was reminded to ensure that I have my BIG, SHARP, WOODEN hair pin (stake) available for my flight to Europe this Friday. It's a great potential weapon (if ever a need) and gets past airport security because my long hair hides it and it doesn't set off security alarms. Anyway, Black Blade has generously shared his expertise and prescient knowledge/insights here many, many times. I appreciate that he's back from the field and participating again. My condolences to you for the loss of your cousin.
Waverider
Aristotle
(07/21/2004; 23:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 123193)
Camel (msg#: 123187) -- Info requested and delivered.
Okay, I hate to see anyone in the dark if there's anyone at all around with a torch. You didn't take to kindly to my "lion's share" comment, so thanks for the further inquiry -- I'm sure you're boldly speaking on behalf of many others who insist on a further peeling of the onion to their satisfaction. Let's do this for the common good.

Regarding my previously lax indication that a "lion's share" of the Federal Reserve System's annual earnings were transferred to the U.S. Treasury, you asked, "Are you referring to the taxes paid on the banking profits?"

No.

Sure, I was vague, but when I said the lion's share, Brother, I MEANT it. The *LION'S* share.

Sometime's a guy's got to go the distance to maintain his credibility, so despite a pressing schedule, I've pulled out the Fed's most recent annual report (2003) just to see this thing all the way through, right and proper.

For the year, the Federal Reserve System's annual net income was $23.0 Billion. Out of that, the Fed paid dividends of $517.7 million to those privileged private shareholders that some people are always whining about. Small potatoes. The total annual transfer payment to the U.S. Treasury was $22.0 Billion. The humble remainder, something to the tune of $467 million, was then transferred as surplus into the Fed's capital account, which at year-end was $8.8 billion.

While I'm at it, let's have a look at the whole damn pie. Since the Fed's inception, for the period 1914-2003, total dividend payments to the so-called "evil empire" of the Fed's private shareholders have been $6.5 billion. A pretty sweet gig, eh? Sweeter for the Treasury, I assure you. Total income-transfer payments to the U.S. Treasury have totaled $549 billion.

Can we give our pedestrian fright about that scary blind alley a rest now?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Belgian
(07/22/2004; 01:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 123194)
Kev / OvS
Kev : I understand your anger (franse col�re)...but you should have known better ! Never, ever fight the state (National interests) as a citizen (inciviek)! CBs are money-spinners for the state...the collectivity ! This fits perfectly in the picture of "political economy" that is "debt driven" ! Give, Gold's "new" future, a place in this context. The final conclusion on the NBB has already been made long ago...It never should have been quoted publicly ! And it is not because a CB seems to be considered as a private enterprise, that it is one. Your work and property as a private individual is also taxed (taken away) from you by that same state (collectivity).

But that same state allows you to acquire yellow wealth...taxfree ! What a unique contrast with everything paper !

OvS : Life is the most beautiful, adventurous, personal gift. Enjoy this unique event intensively...in as much of its infinite aspects, possible,...second by second ! And do it your way. Regards B.

Vienna : OPEC will give a press conference today (their last meeting was canceled).
contrarian
(07/22/2004; 07:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123195)
Camel---Credit Card Debt
The dirty little secret about credit cards that the banks don't want you to know, is that it's unsecured debt, and easy to get out of.

If you stop paying, and then hook up with a credit card counseling agency, they can force the credit card company to settle, usually for 50 cents on the dollar. (assuming you have that money saved up)

I knew someone who did all this. She had owed $40,000. She simply stopped paying, said she could settle for half...and they took it! A few months later, she was getting offers for credit cards she told me.

Of course, this isn't declaring bankruptcy, which is a more serious thing. But it's no wonder that the credit card companies are desperately trying to pass laws tightening the rules on being able to get out of unsecured debt. I know there was talk of a new law, but I don't believe it passed Congress...it's kind of in limbo I think.
Gandalf the White
(07/22/2004; 10:17:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123196)
WOWSERS Sir Soc ---- THANKS for the GOLDEN COMET comment.
Socrates964 (07/21/04; 20:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 123184)
P&F
There is a horizontal count of 4 columns, hence theoretical target is 392 + (4*3*4) = 440. Evidently, 419 is a staging post.
===
YES YES YES - the $419. level is the refueling step for the $440. level !!
<;-)
Belgian
(07/22/2004; 11:26:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123197)
LBMA : Gold clearing statistics !
LBMA went public in 1997. The chart about the daily averages of ounces transferred is imvho, shocking !
1997, we had a peak of 50 million ounces of (paper)Gold (1,500 tonnes equivalent) per day. This activity declined steadily and gradually since 1997 (LBMA public) and reached lows (less than 10 million/day) in '02-'03.
In '04, we LBMA clearing runs at plus minus 10 million ounces a day (300 tonnes papergold)...1/3 the average of the '97/'98 period.

Take a $-POO chart and overlay it with the LBMA goldounces transfer chart...then reread ANOTHER ! Amazing !
admin
(07/22/2004; 13:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 123198)
Client only special offer - Extended Deadline
To start, we would like to thank all of you who have participated thus far in this client-only special offer. Due to the very strong response, as well as a somewhat delayed effort from the USPS, we have extended the participation deadline from Friday July 23 to Wednesday July 28. We believe that the accompanying analysis presented in this offer will be valid for some time to come, however the discounts provided will cease and prices will return to normal after end of the business day on Wednesday. It is our intention to make the information presented in this analysis public after this deadline is passed. Any questions can be directed to the trading desk at 1-800-869-5115.

The staff at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
misetich
(07/22/2004; 15:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 123199)
Sinking Feeling Intensifies at Fannie
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/040722/10172925_4.htmlSnip:

But it would be truly foolhardy to assume that Fannie's balance sheet strengthened substantially in the quarter. That's because shareholders' equity doesn't take into account any changes in the value of hundreds of billions of dollars of assets on Fannie's balance sheet. These would have gone down in value as rates rose. What investors need is something called a fair-value balance sheet, which shows the market value change of all assets, liabilities and derivatives. Fannie has talked a lot about providing this on a quarterly basis, but it hasn't done so. It only comes out once a year in the annual report -- and it hasn't been at all flattering to Fannie in the past two years.
***************
Misetich

tic...toc...tic..toc

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/22/2004; 16:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123200)
Stock Market ready to plunge? Gold ready to rocket?
Newsline snips:

Microsoft says FY 2005 a tough comparison to '04
................
After the Bell-Microsoft trips on weak forecast
.....................
``They are indicating an estimate for the full year that is also below consensus,'' said Tony Ursillo, an analyst at Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., which manages $56 billion and owns 4.5 million Microsoft shares.

..........................
AT&T profit falls amid consumer pullback
....................
Amazon, Microsoft each miss profit target by a penny
.......................
DoubleClick falls short of Q2, stock falls 12%
......................
Computer Associates on Thursday said cost controls allowed it to post quarterly earnings and sales ahead of reduced estimates, but the corporate software company cut the outlook for the coming quarter and full year amid cautious spending by customers on technology
.................................
Sears' shares down on Q2 shortfall
....................
LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- Siebel Systems said Wednesday that net earnings fell 16 percent to meet reduced estimates on Wall Street, as sales declined 9.6 percent
....................
WaMu to trim retail mortgage unit
Seattle-based thrift will close 100 offices, cut 2,500 jobs
.....................
**************
Misetich

Reporting season is here - and the results are not pretty - from Intel to Microsoft, to the automotive industry, results are not meeting expectations and guidance going forward is being significantly reduced....

Is the big bad bear back?

...and if the samples above is not enough - here's ANOTHER

Natural gas rises as oil tops $41

The Feds have failed in their mandate to create jobs,
They have failed in maintaining Price stability

...they have thus far been able to avoid financial disruption, as gold prices have been controlled, the stock market has been in a "comfortable trading range" and have thus far avoided a rout of the US $

Markets, commodities are being artificially "managed" rather than being set by natural market forces, and its inevitable that sooner or later natural forces overpowers them

The stage is set for a similar blowout as in '87 or is it going to be a slow burn?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
mikal
(07/22/2004; 17:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 123201)
Volatility
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2946891Volatility
An Eerie Calm
July 22, 2004 - From The Economist Print Edition
Liberty Head
(07/22/2004; 18:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123202)
Don't Let This Happen To You
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/africa/07/22/odd.coin.reut/index.html
A South African women put a gold sovereign in a parking meter and spent another one while shopping.
_____________

Lessons learned,

If you have gold coins and need glasses, wear them.

Best Wishes
misetich
(07/23/2004; 05:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 123203)
Fed's economic view too rosy for some analysts
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5748712Snip:

NEW YORK, July 22 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts assume a perfect blend of growth and inflation, but analysts suspect the central bank is heading for disappointment on both counts.

"They are Goldilocks forecasts," said Lehman Brothers' chief economist and former Fed staffer Ethan Harris.
.....................
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan released the forecasts of the central bank's policy-setting committee, including a prediction that economic growth will reach a robust 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent this year.

That figure is well above the 4.0 percent consensus estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Reuters in a quarterly poll published earlier this weak.
.....................
That's pretty darned optimistic and it's at the upper end of range that most economists assume," Harris said.
.......................
We wonder what the catalyst is that will spark such a strong acceleration in economic activity?" Merrill Lynch's chief economist, Dave Rosenberg, wrote in a note to clients.

With consumers tiring after three years of robust spending that helped minimize the recession and speed the recovery, it would fall to businesses to ramp up investment in equipment and inventories to generate faster economic growth.

STICKER SHOCK

The other key plank of the Fed's economic outlook, its inflation forecast, is harder to compare with Wall Street estimates since the Fed uses a different inflation measure.

It is not even strictly comparable with the Fed's own previous forecast, since officials have switched from the headline personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) to the core PCE, which strips out food and energy costs and is usually well below the headline level.
..........................
"The timing of the switch is opportunistic on their part, but this is a long talked-about change we are very happy to see," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The official forecast for underlying inflation, as measured by the core PCE, is 1.75 percent to 2.0 percent. But this measure has already doubled so far this year to 1.6 percent and many analysts see it topping 2.0 percent in the next few months.
***********************
Misetich

Sir Greenspan and the rest of the Feds live in an illusionary world.
The flock that followed him during the late 90's believing in the famed Greenspan's put has seen their portfolio diminish and evaporate, as the forecasts of growth, price stability etc have not materialized

Little by little, the Feds creditability is losing flavor, with mainstreet, as REAL PRICE INFLATION, led by higher energy and commodity prices erode consumer spending power

The "full press is on" - headlines around the globe, from the Financial Times thereon, are spewing "the record sales revenue by Microsoft" etc

The US $ is in rally mode - the Stock Market is heading down- Gold is headed down - an often repeated pattern in time of STRESS

Wild fires are spreading everywhere, from the GSE's, to higher unemployment, reduced consumer spending, DOUBLE DIGIT, price inflation, reduced corporate earnings ahead to a paltry 5-7% in 2005

It is the natural market forces vs the egocentric manipulators

Ladies and gentlemen place your bets. You may follow Sir Greenspan rosy scenario and do nothing OR take precautionary measures by adding valued insurance to one's portfolio

PHYSICAL GOLD ...get some

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/23/2004; 06:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123204)
Gold, as good as it gets - by Jessica Cross
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/337007.htmSnip:

OHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Gold is currently trading close to its long-term equilibrium price and is unlikely to shoot the lights out anytime soon, says Jessica Cross, the chief executive of Virtual Metals, a precious metals consultancy.

"The long term equilibrium price is around $375/oz and that reflects the total cost of marginal producers. Economic theory says that's where your price will settle," says Cross. Hers is a view that will have gold bulls reaching for their oxygen, but Cross is unrepentant. "We don't shy away from the bad news.
*****************
Misetich

As indicated in the earlier post "the full press is on" Is it pure coincidence that Ms Cross article is published during a US $ rally mode, the SM trembling, and gold prices heading down

It was customery to bring out the inimitable, Andy Smith, to do the bashing - Ms Cross, it appears has replaced him.

A month or so ago, Ms Cross was touting a comeback of producer hedging and commenting on how gold was struggling to go over $390 - Those comments were uttered during the famed CHINA OVERHEATING gospel being spreaded as the manipulators attacked commodities

The initial target is the "informed" investor and hedge funds as warning salvos, of these counterattacks on gold show up on a "timely basis" during a time of stress

Today's STRESS is poor corporate earnings and forward guidance, mixed with derivatives IR adjustments

It is worthwhile noting, the line of defense, of these counterattacks, occurs at much higher levels each time - it started a few years ago at the US $260 level and been in full retreat ever since

Ms Cross treats gold as a "commodity" rather than the ultimate storage of value. The ultimate currency and thus her downfall.

It is a shame and regretful to see Ms Cross being "used" in this manner - quite a change from the personal correspondence

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/23/2004; 06:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123205)
The Maestro Speaks
http://www.fallstreet.com/july2204.phpSnip:

Greenspan applauds headline increases in payrolls. However, he neglects to mention that the latest �weaker than expected� employment report (for June) produced the smallest increase in average hourly earnings this year. In fact, while some economists are deeply concerned that average hourly earnings are not keeping pace with inflation, Greenspan is completely carefree.

As for businesses still being cautious on hiring, Greenspan avoids this issue by mentioning that companies have a lot of cash. Apparently cash will be spent on hiring new employees (unless it is used for other purposes? ~ purpose 1, purpose 2). Suffice it to say, Greenspan spent little time elaborating on corporate America's cash reserves. Not even Greenspan can competently argue that the inevitable decline in profit margins will occur without crimping cash flows.

Greenspan's argument that a stronger labor market will �doubtless have important follow-on effects for household spending� did not prove accurate in June. Rather, price increases, �by eroding households' disposable income, have accounted for at least some of the observed softness in consumer spending of late�. July's payroll report is due to be released on August 6. Greenspan has his fingers crossed.
......................
An alcoholic faced with a depleted liquor cabinet will tell you anything if it may help him get a bottle. During his testimony earlier this week The Maestro told us that "Despite the softness of recent retail sales, anticipated future income bodes well for consumer spending." Think about this quote for a moment � (which is made up of three snippets from the sentence noted earlier) --- do you get visions of sugar plums? Or do you get the image of Greenspan telling investors what they want to hear?
..........................
*****************
Misetich

Sir Greenspan's upbeat rosy scenario is a masquerade and justification of higher IR ahead

Higher IR's are needed to support the vanishing US $ and to provide a cushion for unanticipated events

Too little - too late

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/23/2004; 07:09:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123206)
Global: The Job-Quality Debate - S. Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040722-thu.htmlSnip:

Not surprisingly, the jobs debate is heating up in the United States as we move into the heart of the political season. My interest in this issue bears more on the economic and financial market implications of underlying trends in the US labor market. A jobless recovery puts pressure on consumer purchasing power and challenges the sustainability of an economic upturn. It also forces income-short consumers to rely on riskier sources of support�namely, outsize tax cuts, which blow up the budget deficit, and equity extraction from homes, which pushes debt loads into uncharted territory. By contrast, in a hiring-led recovery, the economy draws support from internal, or organic, growth�thereby avoiding the imbalances and other stresses and strains that have long concerned me.
..................
I have argued to the contrary�maintaining that the recent improvement on the hiring front is skewed decidedly to the low end of the quality spectrum (see my July 9 dispatch in the Global Economic Forum, "America's Job-Quality Trap," and my Op-Ed piece in the July 22 edition of the New York Times, "More Jobs, Worse Work"). If I am correct, that means the recovery remains in precarious shape.

Several have challenged this conclusion, slicing and dicing the employment data with a different set of tools. The first such effort showed up in the form of a July 9 article posted on www.factcheck.org, a Website sponsored by the non-partisan Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
......................
Overall, the main problem with using the household survey for detailed industry analysis is that it was never designed for that purpose. It was mainly intended to get a good sample of unemployment. The industry and occupational detail that can be gleaned from the household survey is largely an after-thought�a statistical by-product of how individuals view their role in the business sector. That stands in sharp contrast with how companies may see it. While nothing is ever perfect in the realm of statistical analysis, my strong recommendation in attempting to measure job quality is to stay with the establishment survey.



For those reasons, I stand by my own detailed analysis based on the far more reliable survey of business establishments. By industry, restaurants, temporary hiring agencies, and building services were the leading sources of hiring over the past four months. Accounting for only 9.7% of total nonfarm payrolls, these three low-quality segments of the US work force contributed fully 25% to the cumulative growth in overall hiring from March to June 2004. Disproprtionaely large hiring contributions also occurred in other industries at the low end of the job hierarchy�namely, clothing stores, couriers, hotels, grocery stores, trucking, hospitals, social work, business support, and personal and laundry services. All in all, lower-end industries, which employ 22% of the work force, have accounted for 44% of new hiring�or twice their fair share�over the past four months.
*****************
Misetich

JOB CREATION or lack thereof is the Feds dilemma - in the US economy

Accounting gimmicks, and other methods of market intervention WILL FAIL as the root of the problem is the imbedding of Asset Inflation with the economy

Imbedding, which was reinforced, by Sir Alan Greenspan, and his stand vs Asset Inflation

Going forward, jobs are still being EXPORTED - corporate earnings will reduce corporate cash flows and REDUCE capital spending

Simulateneously, The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe, will have a detrimental effect on consmer spending

Higher IR, necissated to support US $ will further deteriorate the US economy thus reinforcing the trend

It takes years for theories and ideas to be severally tested-

That time is now!

The new economy? Forget about it! The old business cycle has not been repealed

Corrections occur when things occur and get out of natural synch

The equity bull market and conversely gold bear market started in the early 80's IS OVER

Equilibrium dictates that sooner rather than later, the statistical mean prevails

The statistical mean, of both Dow/Gold and Oil/Gold SHALL PREVAIL

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Toolie
(07/23/2004; 07:10:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123207)
High anxiety for U.S. automakers
http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/autos23_20040723.htmSNIP: There is concern that if July and August aren't blockbuster sales months for Detroit's three automakers -- especially GM -- they will have to slam on the brakes of vehicle production, which would cause a ripple effect across the industry and might push small suppliers into bankruptcy.
����.
"There are quite a few suppliers around town that are watching to see what happens because they are so dependent on GM and the domestics. If GM decides to pull back a lot, that will send a message to the whole industry and have some scary ripples for some local suppliers," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of vehicle forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, the market analysis firm.
�����..
�. "Suppliers are really worried about their profits when they see production cuts coming while their health-care costs go up 15 percent and their steel goes up maybe 25 percent," said Craig Fitzgerald, a supplier consultant and partner at Plante & Moran, a Southfield-based consulting firm. "I've got one client who has very good profit margins usually, and he tells me the next six months look really bad. His release, new orders, from the automakers are way down."
�����

Fitzgerald estimated 25 percent of small-to-medium-size suppliers locally are bordering on bankruptcy. He said if GM took a big production cut in the fourth quarter -- such as the 20-percent cut some wall Street analysts predict -- it would force some suppliers to go under.
"These small suppliers, like with $50 million or $100 million in sales, would probably throw up their arms and say it's not worth hanging around," he said. (end snip)

This is bad news for the big three, who have promised Wall Street banner profits in 2005. After wrenching all the profit out of suppliers, GM, F an DCX , may well find themselves having to prop up the bottom line of those same suppliers in order to avoid supply failures. A vehicle less one part is not a vehicle.

The practice of lopezing (named after the former GM purchasing manager, involves putting a project up for competitive bid, taking the lowest bid, cutting it by several percent using this a base line then, starting the process over again.) has wrung out any room for error or ability to adjust to rising costs.

At a time when consumer spending is worrisome, the big three need to keep piling on incentives to keep inventories from ballooning further OR cut production and break the supply chain and send waves of layoffs through several battleground states.

I'll bet that Uncle Al has a fresh pile of FRNs to service the needs of our service economy. As the saying goes, the only reason that GM is still around is that it is too big to fail.
misetich
(07/23/2004; 09:03:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123208)
A True Bull Market in Gold
http://www.kwaves.com/if_only.htmIf we could write the script for the perfect backdrop to a true bull market environment for precious metals let see where we stand.

IF ONLY.... By: Richard J. Greene, Thunder Capital Management
Government spending is out of control with little regard for bringing budget deficits into balance;
Trade deficits are mounting toward new records despite a more than 30% decline in the value of the dollar;
Inflation rates and employment statistics were actually much worse than the Government reported figures;
Real interest rates were to remain negative for an extended period of time, not only destroying the purchasing power of savings, but also encouraging the misallocation of capital to assets with artificial demand;
Government sales of gold and silver were to subside or diminish;
Production and Demand annual amounts are bullish for both gold and silver;
The trend of the Dow/Gold Ratio is bullish for gold;
There are huge short positions in gold and silver that could not be delivered;
Loose regulations on the CFTC to encourage dangerous short positions existed;
A major lawsuit was underway to uncover the manipulation of gold and silver prices from attaining true market prices, (allowing us the gift to purchase almost unlimited amounts of gold and silver now at what is surely below market prices);
The masses, particularly in the US, were so uneducated in the histories of fiat money systems and historical prices of gold and silver, allowing for the buying opportunity of the millennium;
The true meaning of the word inflation was widely mis-understood;
The size of the gold and silver markets compared with all of the existing asset bubbles would be insignificant;
Gold and silver stocks had a negative beta, making for the perfect fit in a diversified portfolio or fund-of-fund to increase risk-adjusted returns;
Foreign governments would get in the spirit and competitively devalue their currencies against the US dollar, where gobs of paper have recently been printed;
The idea of once again backing currencies with precious metals got underway;
Armed conflicts are underway with their never-ending budget busting calls for more inflationary spending to achieve their military objectives at any cost;
There existed incomprehensible leverage in the financial system, largely in the form of financial derivatives, (last estimated by the BIS at $234 Trillion notional);
The biggest savers in the world, Asians, believed in gold and silver;
Other commodity prices such as gas and oil are soaring.
******************
Misetich

ALL ABOARD THE GOLD BULL EXPRESS - PART ll
misetich
(07/23/2004; 09:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 123209)
DOW GOLD RATIO
http://www.kwaves.com/index.htmlSnip:

The past two bear markets of the 20th century, in the 1930's and the 1970's witnessed clear times when gold dominated the Dow Jones Industrial Average resulting in extremely low ratios below 2.0
......................
The ratio of the DOW to the price of gold approaches one to one toward the end of periods of financial insecurity brought on by excessive and prolonged inflation or deflation during which owners of capital have sold equities and bonds and purchase gold as a means of capital preservation. During the previous two peaks in the equities markets in the 1920s and 1960s, the ratio was 19 to one and 27 to one respectively.
*****************
Misetich

The SM valuations do not presently reflect the true impact and effect of The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe

The Dow/Gold Ratio will adjust accordingly.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
SteveH
(07/23/2004; 11:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 123210)
Price Stability
Mssr. Greenspan said just the other day that the Fed will do whatever it can to maintain price stability.

He also said how he remembered the 70's when price stability and stagflation (his word) were out of kilter and how "bad" that was.

So, in so far as Gold plays a role in maintaining price stability, either as an indicator of price stability or in order to contain price stability, gold will be contained as well. Thus, the adage "don't fight the fed..." takes on new meaning if it crosses into the Fed directly or indirectly controlling the price of gold in order to maintain price stability.

I guess one question would be what is gold's role in maintaining price stability and what would it mean if gold went to $1,000/oz. on price stability. Or, is it (as I have asked before), that a high price of gold and a strong dollar can not exist in the same universe?

Thoughts?

SteveH
mikal
(07/23/2004; 12:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123211)
@SteveH
I agree with your astute perceptions up to a point.
Perhaps all that need be seen is that the Fed has nothing to lose if they fail at their various objectives,
and that they periodically qualify their mandate as being a limited one.
So, what A.G. really said is that they'll ATTEMPT to maintain price stability.
mikal
(07/23/2004; 12:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 123212)
Volatility
http://www.businesscycle.com/pressquotes.phpAll the markets today seem like gasoline, except that only the vapors occasionally ignite while
the cars drivers are frantically shifting forward...reverse...forward...

� ECRI's negative outlook (less growth higher inflation) confirmed. Snippit:
"The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged further down to 1.1 percent from 1.6 percent in the previous period. The growth rate hit its lowest level since the week of April 18 last year.
"This reinforces earlier signs of a broad-based slowdown ," the group's managing director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters. "Meanwhile, underlying inflation pressures remain on an uptrend," he added."
Federal_Reserves
(07/23/2004; 14:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123213)
Be Prepared
Activists could target Democratic convention

FBI says group may attack media vehicles to create disruption
The Associated Press Updated: 2:07 p.m. ET July 23, 2004BOSTON - The FBI says a radical domestic group may attack media vehicles in an attempt to disrupt next week's Democratic National
Convention.

> Stock up your shelves with food and water, keep plenty of cash in the house, a shotgun with plenty of shells, and keep your tanks topped off too. Prepare like you did for Y2K.

Most likely we will not get hit, at least not until late October. If you live in one the areas targeted for the suitcase bombs, move ASAP. Homeland defense personel have installed sensors on all the freeways which can scan the cars driving by looking for radiation. Believe it.





Belgian
(07/23/2004; 15:13:32 MDT - Msg ID: 123214)
@SteveH....excellent question....
The biggest "systemic" threath to general dollar price inflation (stagflation � la '70-ties), comes from oil that is living a different life now. There will not be cyclical periods of price in/stability...but an increasing linear dollar crisis, due to the gained permanent pricing power of our very economical fundamental, OIL !!!

That's the reason WHY the old goldmarket IS in transition.
The papergold and the physical goldmarkets are drifting apart and in the process of being separated.

This is not seen or experienced, because all wish, understandably, to stay "stable" as long as possible, within the existing dollar system.

The paperprice of Gold is easely being contained, simply by using the printed confetti-digits. The Physical Goldmarket is/remains, "conveniently" contained by all opposing parties (interventionists and Giant gold buyers). This goldmarket is simply "changing", unvisible and in anticipation.
The Asian magnates and the King of oil want to "Possess" the real wealth, wich is already extremely scarcely available. What a perfect entourage for easy Gold deception.

As misetech was right in posting Madame J.Cross' Gold-comments...one should interprete this as an expression of relief for Cross & Co, that it is still possible to contain Gold's paperprice, because there can still be Physical Gold flow be organized to the anticipating dollar-system, infidels ! South African, cheap Gold delivered at the Asians, and ME doorsteps !!! Idem dito for Aussie Gold !

The Gold-pricing is done in such a way, that it signals "nothing"...nothing fundamental...nothing alarmist !
The brilliantly organized general perception of almost death Gold IS the stabilizing factor of Gold ! But in the mean time, the $-POO is giving ever more stronger signals !
BECAUSE PHYSICAL GOLD BECOMES SCARCER ...and scarcer...and the running long term commitments (contracts) between oil and Gold are therefore declining in volume (see LBMA activity ) whilst the old contracts have expiry ( physical delivery) dates.

It is exactly this grandioze paradox of scarce Gold and declining prices, that is doing the trick of total deception.

Your question is excellent, because you are expressing your rightly confusion and suspicion at the same time.

POG and the dollar are already "fundamentally" dis-connected for more than decades. But the papergold masters succeeded in creating a virtual relationship between $ and Gold. Shouldn't surprise you after what happened in 1971.

J.Cross was happy to announce that POG (their price management) succeeded in staying within the virtual $380 zone, whilst the miners kept their razor thin profitability as to keep on mining � volont� to serve the Giants, who are holding the world by its...

As long as Gold-containment, remains accepted by the different parties...you will find "relative" stability as will be reflected in the dollar and a still reasonable (cheap) oilprice in historic perspective.

This relative stability looks more and more "relative" and sur-realistic. In the mean time, very specific FreeGold anticipations, keep on evolving...INVISIBLY, of course !

If you don't reject the above as an ongoing reality, behind the curtains...you will conclude that any projection of a $-goldprice is futile, at this stage in the whole affaire.

This time, there will not be another little round of temporary price-unstability...but a orderly and disorderly phase(s) of a steady one way street to general hyper-price-inflation . The POG within the present dollar system, will remain fundamentally insignificant up until a FreeGold market is established, where the POG has its real function, again.

But as you know, the debate on how unfree Gold actually is...is a reason for much friction/conflict amongst us, the gold watchers. Yes, one can buy a couple of hundred kilograms...but a few hunderd tonnes...Physically delivered !?
Rimh
(07/23/2004; 15:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123215)
Good Explanation, Belgian!
I was expressing to a co-worker just this morning how today's action implies the paper game is still very much the only game going. No-one "In-the-know" dares break from the pack too soon. Those accumulating physical are quite happy to exchange their fiat for an artificially low value on the "wealth of kings" without upsetting the dollar-masters.

But when the break comes, look out! Physical gold may be near impossible to buy at any price while the COMEX-dollar price of gold may well fall through the floor as it's paper-only scandal is revealed.

To All: Don't wait until its too late! Fiat can still be exchanged for real, physical, touchable gold. Got some?
Smeagol
(07/23/2004; 22:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123216)
An ounce of deception...
Ssir Belgian (07/23/04; 15:13:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 123214)
"The Asian magnates and the King of oil want to "Possess" the real wealth, wich is already extremely scarcely available. What a perfect entourage for easy Gold deception."
...
"But as you know, the debate on how unfree Gold actually is...is a reason for much friction/conflict amongst us, the gold watchers. Yes, one can buy a couple of hundred kilograms...but a few hunderd tonnes...Physically delivered !?"

S. - sss...it may be hard to find a tonne of It all at once, but is the 'easy' availability of lots of Gold in small amounts disstributed everywhere, in ounces or as jewelry, alsso part of thiss deception? If so, it sstands to reason that It will eventually become sscarcer in ever smaller quantity as Time passes.
Belgian
(07/24/2004; 01:07:32 MDT - Msg ID: 123217)
@Ssssssmeagol
There will never be an significant shortage of small amounts of Physical Gold !!! Giant Gold accumulators, have the "discipline" that the masses lack so much. All this Gold grams and ounces "must" remain served and change hands, as to have a continious "market" in Physical Gold.

FreeGold would be a contradiction in terminis if there was no Gold changing hands (traded).

Gold holdings was purposely "dis-couraged" amongst Western affluent, because the available Gold had to be funneled to the demanding Giants and the Eastern ants, who will never buy our debt-show in the hall of fiat. They know what fiat is and isn't. We don't, because we are so bright in management and self deception.

The West rushed to Gold in 1980...and at this hight, there was always available Gold (small amounts) for trade.

But as your post is suggesting,...you do suspect a BIG difference between grams/ounces/kilos and "tonnes" !
And we should understand by now that the A. Smiths/J.Cross's & al of today wish to get Eastern folks of the Physical Gold hook through the same paperization that we had to undergo (were leaded into). BECAUSE A LOT OF UNAIVAILABLE GOLD HAS ALREADY BEEN LOCKED IN (long term) CONTRACTS. Look at the long term oil contracts...that volume is still increasing together with higher prices !!!
Oil is freeing itself because we cannot go on for ever, serving them with Gold wealth in exchange. The Chinese (Asian) magnates concluded that time has come to store the wealth metal, abundantly. That's WHY China wants its ordinarry folks to do the same and Goldmining/smuggling in the East is on the rise, despite the statistical lies funneled through the authoritive global media � la Reuters, Bloomberg, ect.

Read again what Another wrote in 1997 !!! Then you can "correctly" interprete the very little on Gold that surfaces more frequently, these days.

Visible Gold-trade is the lowest where the dollar is still the most dominant. Directly or indirectly as allied derivative of the dollar (cfr. Japan). And in the case of Japan, we are talking about $TRILLIONS, Sir...$TRILLIONS (double digit numbers)!!! Compare this with the whole stash of CB Gold (30,000 tonnes) paperpriced obscenely at Billions.

The global Gold-management (paper + Physical) is to organize "stability" around the dollar-reserve-system ! What we are calling the Gold cabal are in fact the same managers who let us prosper within the relatively stable dollar-system, for quite some time now !!! The cabal (Gold Interventionists) must certainly consider us , Goldphiles (our comments) as ingrats(ungratefuls).
That's WHY Alan went angry and said that CBs stand ready...!

The past Gold Management has resulted in relative global stability !!! This stability is running at its end and therefore, ANOTHER Gold System (FreeGold) has already been designed. And the Gold Management (containment) has, after all, been relatively fair ! Shrimps and Giants, could get Physical...IF THEY WANTED TO ! We still blame the Gold-Price-Interventionists for...HAVING MADE GOLD OBSCENELY CHEAP ...FOR SOOO LONGGGGG !!! Capiche !?

ge
(07/24/2004; 01:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123218)
Sinclair becomes a freegold convert?
---quote--
"...the world monetary system must return to a gold standard - albeit in a modernized and revitalized form. Gold convertibility is and always has been a trade concept that in fact has worn out its usefulness. However, gold tied to expanded monetary aggregates - not by interest rates but rather by gold's value in the marketplace versus the holding of the US Treasury - has merit as a solution."
---unquote---

---translation---
Governments shall not voluntarily give up the privelege of printing fiat money. We shall devalue (with respect to gold) and start it all over again.
spotlight
(07/24/2004; 03:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123219)
Monetization
A person I am corresponding with made the statement that follows. I would appreciate anyone with knowledge on this subject addressing the accuracy of the statement. I believe he is speaking of exceptional times, like the war in Viet Nam, when the adminstration in power wishes to bypass congress and the Fed.

"INFLATION COMES FROM THE UNAUTHORIZED PAYMENT OF GOVERNMENT BILLS THROUGH THE INCREASING OF THE MONEY SUPPLY. THIS IS NOT DONE BY THE FED, IT IS DONE BY THE ADMINISTRATION IN POWER, THROUGH THE TREASURY"
Belgian
(07/24/2004; 04:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 123220)
FreeGold....
Goldbugs, NEVER debated, ad fundum, to what extend and WHY the * Gold-Pricing * was (still is) ***purposely*** ,UN-free ! The debate has been limited to airing tonnes of frustrations of all kinds. Incredibly unproductive and the fundamental reason WHY many will miss the boat of obscenely low price Physical Gold.

We are already very far in the ongoing process of losing any store of "Value". Value is NOT the same as constant price-rises. Your house, your home...isn't rising in price, because its Value is increasing !!! The price of your house is able...managed to rise, because the confetti (digits) that are associated with your house are devalueing, depreciating, desintegrating. But the "managers" organized a "FUN"-market in housing, with all tools in place as to assure, general price rises. Your house has become less "home" and more hedge against a desintegrating confetti pool. This is "undermining" the very basics of a genuine economic system ! The exhuberant stockmarket "fun"-market is a shirt made out of the same cotton. This was achieved with absurd historical low IRs as the main billboard for all to see.

In very contrast of this succesful organized confetti/digit debauche,...we have the goldmarkets, wich had to live in an organized "unfunny" market. In sharp contrast with the funny possession of a house, stock, etc...the possession of Gold was extremely unpleasant for the past decades. And don't conclude that this is (was) accidental...unpurposely !!!

Flourishing, vitallic markets, "must" be fun ! The fun of ever rising prices, that keep on feeding on themselves. These things are "initiated" (induced). But what "was", healthy supportive interventionism, became an obsession to absurdity. And it worked...stockmarkets, housing, bond-prices rushed to da moon and boy...was there "fun" in these Coney island markets !

Any market is by definition a place where the mases do crow together. That's a condition for successfully organizing "stampedes". Goldphiles are to be seen as pathetic loners. "They", the management pretenders know bloody well how to play mases...euh sorry...create liquid (and unliquid) markets...humhummm !

Yes, of course...Gold is and has to remain "PERCEPTED" as free ! Imagine the day that it is officially declared that there Gold is NOT a reserve anymore and that Gold is not officially traded between states. Imagine that Gold would be broadly percepted as a 100% "private" thing !!! Oh boy...would its price race to da stars, faster than the speed of a laserbeam lightyear. The Gold Giants (state gold included) would immediately lose all sense of Gold discipline and "openly" corner Gold, big way. But Gold seems (is) a to precious and Valuable wealth asset, for leaving it completely private !!! Confetti would never be able to compete with Gold wealth in an orderly way !!!

Bubbles that stubbornly aren't deflating (letting escape air)...are to be classified as "systemic" bubbles that inflate up until catastrophic bursting. The price of your house keeps rising for as long as IRs are kept systemically low and don't reflect the confetti depreciation on a constant basis. Those who consider themselves as wealthy know this very well. They profit from the detoriating situation and anticipate the systemic crash with profitting a second time in the purposely Unfree priced goldmarkets. Free to accumulate Gold but unfree to do it their way !!! But these magnates are very flexible and are very happy with the limited Gold-freedom that remains and see it as an opportunity.

If tomorrow the at present dominating pricerise-incentive in the housing market should (shall) disappear...the housing market will be much less fun and a house will be aqcuired for more "home"-reasons rather than speculative reasons. Yes the housing-market is a free market, but the individual has very little say in the "price-evolution" of his semi-property !!! Same story for stocks, bonds, etc...

We are not the ones who decide on IRs...monetary expansion,...and all the facets of the political economy and its debt driven forces !!! How unfree are we in the percepted free-market system !? To what extend is the political economic system having impacts on the prospects of genuine, sustainable profits for the many ? What is the taxing and re-distribution all about ? How free are we to be/remain unfree as an individual in the dominating collectivity ?

When such a system of "guided" freedom, isn't working anymore...we go reverse the clock and go back to more real freedom. And FreeGold is one out of many other freedoms that will be re-established in order to start it all over again.

Give me an unfree, obscenely priced goldmarket...and I promess you to contribute to global stability for as much and as long as I can (Goldphiles).

Keep Gold contained for as long as possible as to keep the perception of stability alive (CBs)

Give them (the public) exhuberant stockmarkets and houseprice booms as to let them compensate for our confetti debauches (CBs)

etc... ! Nice weekend to all, not yet on holidays.
Topaz
(07/24/2004; 04:22:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123221)
Yield/DX.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=TYXY&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Now here's a trend-breaker!
Oil, as expected has drawn a largish move from DX and contrary to trend, the Yields have not followed suit ... providing a double whammy gain in $US paper.
This is most peculiar and would suggest big-time ops in the Bond pits to prevent a run ... or? ... Oil buyers are expecting a MUCH higher $Oil in the future.

We'll be looking for a Bond reversal early next week.
Belgian
(07/24/2004; 04:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 123222)
@spotlight (not an answer but only a reflexion)
What does it matter "who" is ordering/executing the debauching ? WHY is Alan Greenspan "talking" soooooo much !?
And WHY didn't he step down and retire !? Any state administration organizes a degree of collusion with the publicly percepted independant institutions. The more things are being detoriating the more "centralized" (autocratic) the dominating power has to become !!! Are you seeing this happening in the many facets (events) that are actually taking place !?

Euroland is well placed to recognize such a particular evolution in increasing autocraty. Not always easy to distance oneselve from this and to remain neutral !

The Gold matter in this, lays in the shism between the dollar and non-dollar parts of the world. A.Greenspan's job is to over-talk all the ongoing and is therefore acting as a cover up for the underlying detoriation to be hidden for the broad public as to not provoke un-nescessary panic that would enhance the problems and eliminate completely the possibility of partial recovery. Alan doesn't dare to mention the dollar, anymore. The fact that Greenspan cannot be replaced is that the 2 decades dollar management "has" no other choice than to continue, the way it is, up until the bitter end of losing its reserve status, with all the nasty consequences that will come, with this loss...for all of us ! Don't forget that Greenspan is not only the Cbanker of America, but the central banker of the world's reserve currency. But can he, or his employer (the US administration) speak for America AND the whole world, together !?

The US adminstration + the treasury + the FED = ONE...now more than ever before.
spotlight
(07/24/2004; 05:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123223)
Belgian
Thank you for your comments and observations.
I have been talking about the advantage of the US due to it's reserve currency status for many years now. It's good to see so many picking up on this topic.
SteveH
(07/24/2004; 07:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123224)
CNBC reports that Hedge Fund Manager Favor Kerry
Now, let's see.

First of all, who the heck are these fund manager by name? Unknown.

How many Hedge fund managers are there? Maybe 100?

Are they all voting US citizens? Probably not.

So, can someone please tell me why the vote of less than a 100 people would be so important as to warrant a report on CNBC?

What is this world coming to?

SteveH
(07/24/2004; 07:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 123225)
CNBC reports that Hedge Fund Managers Favor Kerry (corrected version)
Now, let's see.

First of all, who the heck are these fund manager by name? Unknown.

How many Hedge fund managers are there? Maybe 100?

Are they all voting US citizens? Probably not.

So, can someone please tell me why the vote of less than a 100 people would be so important as to warrant a report on CNBC?

What is this world coming to?

Druid
(07/24/2004; 09:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123226)
@Belgian

Druid: Belgian, I know I don't say it enough but thanks.
Smeagol
(07/24/2004; 10:08:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123227)
Thank you...
...sso very much, Ssir Belgian. Each Posst from you, and the too-many-to-lisst other fine ones here, each is a larger or ssmaller puzzle-piece that we are assembling, and the picture is taking form, along with undersstanding.

---
Richly and justly,
gold reflects the colors of
paper-money fire
---

S.
Smeagol
(07/24/2004; 10:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123228)
Four nine Eagles... anyone?
It wass mentioned in Ssir MK's book, The ABC's of Gold Investing, that "In 1996, the U.S. Government authorized the mint to strike pure gold (.9999 fine) U.S. Eagles to compete with the Austrian Philharmonic and Canadian Maple Leaf overseas, particularly in Asia, where pure gold coins are preferred."

sss... two quesstions - have they ever done thiss, and if sso, are they available?

S.
Smeagol
(07/24/2004; 10:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 123229)
Sssorry for the late answer!
Ssir Buongiorno! (6/29/04; 07:59:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 122630)
..."Can you save your little gems for us, then maybe show them all to celebrate $450 or $500 gold?"

We are glad you likes our Hai-kus, kind Ssir, and indeed we have been ssaving them (and sstockpiling more)... sss...with our Hosst's permission (sideways glance), when It closes above five hundred Dollar-Promises in exchange, we will posst what we has [that aren't duplicated in the Hai-Ku Hall of Records]... that threat alone ought to keep It under 500 awhile, eh? (cackle)... and Ssir Town Crier can ssort out the good, the bad and the ugly (green-eyed grin).

"Also, have a feeling you are a middle school teacher of sciences..."

O you are a perceptive one, Ssir Buongiorno!; thank you for what we considers a fine compliment... alas, we doesn't teach, but Science-fields (among many things) we DOES find verrry interessting... sss...we've done lots of ssneak-reading in the Wizard's library! Maybe ssomeday he will let us work on that Gold-rocket...
---
>beep< crackle-hiss >beep<...
"Gold, you are go for liftoff"...
"To the Moon, Alice!"
---

S.
mikal
(07/24/2004; 11:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123230)
@Smeagol
Rousing golden sun,
Warmly, softly transposed
Into needy hands.

Re: .9999
No such U.S. coins exist.
While "fineness", "purity" and "pureness" mean the degree or percentage of uniformity, the meaning (and interpretation) of the word "pure" is dependent on
how it's used, it's context, the author's intention.
With the word "pure", the U.S. Mint was referring to the genuiness of gold, to be once again integrated into U.S. coin, as opposed to base metals(22 KT, .917 fine to boot!).
Regards

spotlight
(07/24/2004; 13:39:53 MDT - Msg ID: 123231)
Monetization
Black Blade:
Can you shedsome light on this please?

I would appreciate anyone else with knowledge on this subject addressing the accuracy of the statement below.

A person I am corresponding with made the statement.I believe he is speaking of exceptional times, like the war in VietNam, when the adminstration in power wishes to bypass congress and the Fed. in order to fund their agenda.
*************************
"INFLATION COMES FROM THE UNAUTHORIZED PAYMENT OF GOVERNMENT BILLS THROUGH THE INCREASING OF THE MONEY SUPPLY. THIS IS NOT DONE BY THE FED, IT IS DONE BY THE ADMINISTRATION IN POWER, THROUGH THE TREASURY"
spotlight
(07/24/2004; 14:00:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123232)
Monetization
Black Blade: (correction of omission in sentence below)
Can you shed some light on this please?

I would appreciate anyone else with knowledge on this subject addressing the accuracy of the statement below.

A person I am corresponding with a person who made the statement. I believe he is speaking of exceptional times, like the war in VietNam, when the adminstration in power wishes to bypass congress and the Fed. in order to fund their agenda.
*************************
"INFLATION COMES FROM THE UNAUTHORIZED PAYMENT OF GOVERNMENT BILLS THROUGH THE INCREASING OF THE MONEY SUPPLY. THIS IS NOT DONE BY THE FED, IT IS DONE BY THE ADMINISTRATION IN POWER, THROUGH THE TREASURY"
mikal
(07/24/2004; 14:40:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123233)
How much money supply originates from Fed?
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3403854/An answer to a MSNBC's reader's inquiry on the Fed and money supply:
"The Answer Desk
The Fed Mystique - John W. Schoen
July 23, 2004
You've got the mechanics of the Fed's job down cold and explained very simply. (Hey, would you mind filling in for us when we go on vacation?)
Of the two levers you describe, by far the Fed's favorite is open market operations -� where it adds or drains money by buying or selling Treasury debt that's already been issued and is trading in the "open market." Every six weeks or so, the Fed's Open Market Committee meets to give the Fed's New York trading desk its marching orders. When it buys Treasuries, for example, the billions in cash it uses to pay for that paper is then available for banks to lend. So the money supply in the banking system (and the U.S. economy once that money is lent out) goes up. Reverse the process �- sell securities -� and money gets sucked out of the banking system. Seems like a foolproof way to manage the economy.
The problem is that the system was designed and set up early in the last century �- when most lending and borrowing was channeled through banks. Alas, that's no longer the case. Take the mortgage market, for example, which is dominated by two federally-sponsored entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These two institutions lend money to home buyers, bundle those loans as mortgage-backed securities, sell those securities to investors and then lend the proceeds to the next home buyers. This credit creation process takes place outside of the Fed's control.
There are other vast pools of money that are outside of the Fed's reach. Money market mutual funds take in billions of dollars worth of deposits and buy various forms of paper -� in effect, lending that money out -- at which point it goes back into the system. The derivatives markets also "create" money. An option (the right to buy or sell a stock at a fixed price within a set period of time) is simply a piece of paper created by an investor willing to place a bet on the direction of that stock's price. As soon as that piece of paper starts trading, it has a monetary value over which the Fed has no control. And consider the vast wealth that has been created in the housing market. As homeowners tap that wealth with home equity loans, they're monetizing their paper profit. The creation of all of that "new money" is also outside the Fed's control."


Goldendome
(07/24/2004; 16:07:53 MDT - Msg ID: 123234)
Paperization: Why not the oil Markets?
Opec is apparently watchful for attempts to control oil prices through the paper futures market. Accordingly, they are well prepared to limit production, to assure that the Spot markets continue in tight supply; thereby, assuring that the Spot price is unable to be manipulated down whatever the paper sellers do in the outward futures months.

They can hardly be blamed for suspision, that those who have so successfully manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with artifically created debauched dollars, would now attempt the same gambit with oil prices.

These folks (as well as the Chinese and Japanese in other trade areas) maybe looked upon as fools for continueing to accept and accumulate a hyper-inflating paper currency for their real wealth--oil; but, they are not so big of fools as to allow "the paper hangers" to artificially lower the price of their oil and then turn around and purchase same with the hot air dollars that they create.
Smeagol
(07/24/2004; 16:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123235)
But...
Ssir Mikal, the U.S. introduced Gold Eagles in 1986, ten years earlier... and those are not four-nine fine. We guesses that though the mint was given a green-light to make 'pure' Gold Eagles, they decided not to, if there are none by now...

S.

P.S. Nice Hai-Ku, precious!
Topaz
(07/24/2004; 16:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 123236)
@Goldendome.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=Theres no doubt a large pool of PaperOil out there and those who control it are indeed attempting to contain SpotPoO ... witness the cronic backwardation in futureOil these last several Mth's...
... however, since June and the current uptick, the ability of Paper (Dollar Bloc) to manage PoO has been thwarted. We are on the verge of an Oil reserve currency denominated in $US as opposed to $ reserve den in Oil.
This we be manifest in a reversal of B-ation and will truly be a sight to behold!
Black Blade
(07/24/2004; 19:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 123237)
spotlight ( msg#: 123231)

I am sorry, but perhaps a reference and link would help. I am unaware of this (though maybe quoted outta context). Even Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were subject to the "War Powers" act and required funding through Congress I believe. Vietnam was precipatated and amplified by the so-called "Gulf of Tonkin" incident (unproven) by Prez Lyndon Baynes Johnson after advisors were sent in by Prez John Fitzgerald Kennedy. Ever since the Congress had to approve funding.

- Black Blade


- Black Blade
White Hills
(07/24/2004; 20:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 123238)
Gold the hard way
For those of us that live in the Great Anerican Southwest gold has always been important as a natural resource. It is all over the place. Finding gold isn't difficult as there are mining districts everywhere you look. There are parts of some of the Southwestern states that do not have gold, most do. Twice week I go out into the desert of Arizona and prospect for my weekly fix of gold. There is nothing like it when it comes out of the desert looking like it just came out of a display box at the local jewelry store. I would encourge everybody to go prospecting at least if for no other reason than to see and learn why it still is the stuff that dreams are made of. If the price keeps going up I probabily will end up camping out everyday and digging for Gold. White Hills (Arizona)
Antipodean Bug
(07/24/2004; 21:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123239)
McHugh analysis of the gold market
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1791.htmI always enjoy the intepretation of chart formations and the insight provided by many expert practitioners. One of the best exponents is McHugh whose latest article can be viewed at http://www.safehaven.com/article-1791.htm.
In his analysis of gold he projects a minimum downside
move to $317 based on a head/shoulders pattern that he
illustrates.
Seems to me that you will always find a h/s pattern when
a price recovers from a significant fall. All the small
setbacks that occurred as the price was scaling the rises
become left shoulders when the price finds ultimate support
on the other side of the 'head' and then resumes its inexorable climb once more.
I wonder if others see the inevitably of h/s patterns
when prices recover??



Belgian
(07/25/2004; 05:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 123240)
@Antipodean Bug >>> Gold-chart :
My interpretation of this goldprice-pattern : The probability that the topping SHS pattern is in the make, is increasing, because momentum indicators (RSI-MACD), suggest so. The SHS pattern has NOT yet been finalized as long as its neckline ($375) hasn't been pierced downwards.

The goldprice upward channel (green) hasn't been broken and the supportline (zone) is pretty close to the SHS-neckline zone at $375 ! And the $375-zone is also a pivot-point in another possible pattern...etc...etc...

Today, I'm certainly not going to rush out as to add more metal to my existing stashelet. If I had the intention to add more bullion...$380-$375 seems more appropiate than today's $390. But this 2% price difference is no big deal, when talking about the "metal".

But your question (fear-hope) was probably more about that (projected) $317 figure, ...wasn't it Sir ?
Today, it is absolutely "impossible" to guess the probability of $317 POG !!! The safehaven interpreter of the POG chart is way too early in suggesting the $317 possibility !!! No good.

I think that most agree, we are living in (through) exceptional times, characterized with high probabilities of Big unexpected surprises (massive interventions) ! Very "uncertain" - "unstable" times !!!
In such times, the technical interpretations of price-behaviors (patterns) are totally unreliable and therefore a very risky, speculative (gambling) instrument !

Think it is not unreasonable to suggest that we better stick to the very fundamentals that are evolving in these increasingly uncertain times to come. Beware of the many "false" moves ! Confusing...frustrating...risky.

The virtual "stability" shall/will/must "unwind", whilst other things (certainties) are "winding up".
Dollar/IRs/stockmarkets/houseprices...versus oil and Gold.

And today, the main determinator of the close future is the "PoO" ,within oil-$/�-Gold. Will the PoO be/remain co-operative as global stabilizing factor, or not !? There are many different forces at work behind this PoO. Orderly...disorderly...stabilizing...gradually destabilizing...conflicting...neutral...???????

price
(07/25/2004; 05:34:38 MDT - Msg ID: 123241)
Bullion Coin Price Charts
http://goldmoneybill.org/ Would CPM mind forwarding to me charts of your historical prices of the five U.S. minted bullion coins? These will be used for a meeting I'm scheduling with my local Virginia delegate to discuss his introducing a Gold/Silver Money Bill for Virginia modeled on the New Hampshire bill referenced.

The bill proposes that the state provide a parallel transaction system with its citizens that uses the market prices of the bullion coins. Charts of historical bullion coin market prices will help clarify and quantify the proposition.

I'm not sure what time period would best illustrate the point of market bullion coin prices without getting into peripheral issues. Maybe a three-year that includes the current gold bull and a one-year that includes the current silver bull?

Thanks,

PRice
R Powell
(07/25/2004; 11:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123242)
Where's that exported fiat going??
This week's Mogambo offering (dailyreckoning.com) refers to a report from Martin Hutchinson's "The Bear's Lair: Life After Greenspan" in which Mogambo quotes the following from said report...

"The May inflow of foreign funds into the U.S. economy was also announced Friday; at $54.8 billion, down from $81.2 billion in April, it dropped for the fourth successive month."


What will this do? What does it portend?

I'll need all the help I can get here, but here goes my limited knowledge of capital flows among nations.
In a nutshell, very simplified...the USA prints and exports fiat money to cover our balance of trade deficit and to cover government mandated spending deficits. Basically we print the money necessary to cover our overspending.

This exported inflation of the monetary supply is akin to an IOU. The world has been inundated with US dollars, the excess of which some use as banking reserves and some use (return!!) as investment capital in US equities and US debt instruments (bonds and treasuries). However and whereever the exported money travels OUTSIDE of the USA does not matter as it remains an outstanding (uncashed) IOU (debt).

Unreturned US dollars are similar to an uncashed IOU in that it gives free credit to the giver of the IOU until the IOU is cashed. A rapid return of these past years' exported monetary inflation would return that inflation into our economy and cause an inflation of goods and services. Is this basically true?

Now the questions...
Has the inflow of exported fiat slowed recently as a result of less exported late last year??

If not, then why have inflows dropped? What has become of these billions of $$?

Is this lower inflow one reason why equities are dropping? Or, taking this on step further, are stock markets now falling in response to a lower rate of US monetary inflation in the second half of 2003?

Is the Mogambo correct in stating..."This lack of buying is the dreaded deflation that the Fed is so anxious about. There is disaster afoot if stocks deflate from being "insanely overpriced" to merely "overpriced."" The Mogambo's opinion of stocks being over, under or fairly priced is immaterial to the question of the possibility of deflation.

BTW: the Mogambo ends by opining that the time remaining before the Nov. elections may be the last chance to buy gold and silver at cheap prices. He adds, "And if you do not want to buy gold and silver, then send me the money and let ME buy some more!"

Any and all responses appreciated but please keep them simple enough for this old silver lover to understand.
Happy weekend
rich

Cometose
(07/25/2004; 12:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 123243)
McHugh Commentary
I find very interesting for several reasons..........

1. He commented on gold seeing deflation.......
One cannot argue the consequences coming of a Stock market rout, Bond Market rout, and the effects on Real Estate and Banks....

None of the above is a good reason to sell gold ; On a relative basis your gold if maintaining present levels will buy much more real estate at 10 cents on the dollar than it will at (real estate)present day prices.

I have to say, however, that personally , I am seeing inflation everywhere.....in prices that I pay for everything....

2. I believe McHugh mentioned that the Fed is now only jawboning the interest rate market and that this "fragile economy" can't takes no more , captain (interest rate hikes). I would surmise that the most informed of Money Managers on a global level are also aware of this precarious predicament of the fed........raise interest rates in an election year in such a weak economic framework(insures a loss for the incumbent administration/not in the interest of Alan Republican Greenspan).

Massive tax breaks , record low interest rates , and Massive outsourcing of jobs overseas couldn't put HUMPTY DUMPTY's economy back together again .......

This interest rate catch 22 only mirrors on the strength /weakness of the $ DOLLAR.......

1) Do we have massive trade deficits????
2) Do we have massive budget deficits????
3) Foreigners are paying for this party
by buying / funding US bond market BUT
THE INFLOWS ARE DECREASING AT AN ALARMING RATE
by our two largest contributors , Japan and China
and overall

If interest rates go up is that good for the bond market
Less inflows causes the bond market to go TITS UP and the banks and the Real Estate Market.....
If raising interest rates hurts the bond market and the GLOBE STARTS fleeing the BOND MARKET , is that good for the DOLLAR.............????? Long TERM ...NO ...
SHORT TERM , it could be like holding a peice of dynamite with a long fuse........
DON'T take my word for it , ASK WARREN BUFFET????
HE is not known as the ORACLE OF OMAHA for NOTHING!

So if we don't have a strong dollar , then it must be weak no matter how much you perfume it up , dress it up , and no matter how much powder and lipstick one uses to cover up the BLOCHINESS....or is that LEPROSY(Politicians did this and they don't deserve your money )??

SO ? HOW does this NASTY NAKED DOLLAR reflect on GOLD ...
PRETTY WELL ......

GOLD historically flows to the area of the world which is the dominant ECONOMIC ENGINE of the WORLD
and those who have the GOLD MAKE THE RULES.........
THE GOLD backed Yuan may RULE in the not to distant future.

The central bankers may play off Mr Greenspans words but the rest of the World will not ...........they will continue to accumulate gold right through the election ...

Did anyone notice what OIL is doing.........I heard some commentary from Jim ?Willey over the weekend at Jim Pulpuva's sight that he thinks that the PPT may be getting ready to paperize the OIL FUTURES MARKET here soon to the short side to , you know , help the markets.....

and he believes that if this is to occur that we are going to have another 70's style(retribution chess move) embargo immediately ...
Russia's oil situation is going to cause a shortage at this critical time (better than having another enron type situation reooccur over there from the unscrupulous western greedmongers who believe in MONEY FOR NOTHING)
It's rumored that the CHINESE are importing massive quantities of OIl for deep storage.....(why would they do that ???)

and there is the pent up demand coming from that side of the world for Other Natural Resources for building things
like Naval Vessels and Buildings and Infrastructure .....
Commodities....demand .......lots of it.....

First down went Japan's economy for the count(1989) and now it appears as if the U S economy is going down for the count while the Japan Economy comes back ....China is establishing good relations with the rest of the world and its other trading partners........Perhaps the show will just keep going on inspite of the absence of the U S demand .......

Commodities inflation spurred on with oil demand supply imbalances usually takes gold up with it ........

I think McHugh's Gold analysis ..is pretty myopic.....
Perhaps in that particular area , he is not unlike some of the other suspect analysts who just don't want to open their mouths about it even though they run a commodity fund ........or even though they live in Hong Kong and probably work for Chinese interests in addition to occasionally being guests on finanicial news shows.

Perhaps everybody knows , but no one is telling because they don't want to cause a rush into gold prior to their accumulating as much gold for their employers as is possible before the big move.

McHugh's commentary on the interst rate problem at the fed in the context of this weak economy doesn't square with his commentary on GOLD......if the dollar is weak , GOLD is strong.....

Do your own due diligences......
I think the central bankers are about out of glue.....

Someone said that the Fed allowed the Money supply to drop 9 billion in the last 2 months and that historically this means a fall in the equity markets.......which last week (many) fell below their 200 day moving averages decisively...
Strange behavior from a Fed committed to the reelection of
George Bush for President ......
Goldendome
(07/25/2004; 12:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123244)
Belgian--Say it isn't so!

Au' Contraire! Sir Belgian: The buying of physical depends as much on a man's needs and his appropriate desired mindset, as on that potential small swing down in gold price to feel comfort buying. Some still need to do a lot of the appropriate balancing of our dollar portfolios to rest at a place of greater comfort. Many in this country still have huge stacks of dollar credits tucked uneasily away in our favorite bank or savings institution--just bleeding away purchasing power to unofficial inflation and negative interest rates.

We can't know what your monetary position is there in Europe vis.a vie. the Euro and the outlook there; but, here in the USA the time for getting gold and silver is now! Our long term outlook--IMO, is not too shiny. Particularly so, when we factor in the unfunded Government liabilities, some $54,000,000,000,000 that begin coming do soon now! There's only one way that number can be paid off in any-way-shape and form...and, that is with *Greatly* inflated dollars. The fact is--that the U.S. may be entering an economic soft spot, recession... who knows how bad. But I expect if we are, and tax collections fall, that this country may be looking at a $1,000,000,000,000 a year deficit soon. Maybe all the foreigners continue to bail us out and fund us; but, that only prolongs the problem anyway; but, if they should change their minds--and quickly; this country could be in a hyper-inflationary depression in a short time.

Gold: We need to be gettin' more of it, now!

Accordingly--Oh! did I mention that on Friday, I bought some of those nice little 20 Franc Gold coins minted by your cousins to the East--the Swiss! I paid right at $388/oz (bullion) for 11 of them, and I don't feel badly about it at all. So--I guess I had a little vested bone to pick on your comment about not buying physical now. I didn't think that you *really* meant it that way, anyway. --Gdome
Cometose
(07/25/2004; 12:45:37 MDT - Msg ID: 123245)
afterthought
usually when the stockmarket dumps ; it automatically causes a surge in the dollar because the sales proceeds go directly into the bond market.........

Perhaps this is the only way to now prop up the dollar against gold .........

YES ........DUMP THE STOCK MARKET..........

If this is the current strategy ......to keep gold down ,you can protect your gold holdings .

Balance yourself by buying RYDEX SHORT FUNDS on the Stock Market .........After the plunge is over , parlay your(hedged) profits back into the GOLD MARKET........
at a lower cost basis.....

This may be the plan that takes gold to 317 according to McHugh .........

If that is the case , you can expect an exessively large move down in the equities markets.....

Hold onto your hat.......this may be and exciting ride...
Don't panic ,
Act

A stock market plunge this year may not have any affect on an election if an election is not going to occur.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/25/2004; 13:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 123246)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html

gold -- a global calling card
Goldendome
(07/25/2004; 14:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 123247)
@ Rich & Cometose, Responses

Rich: I don't know anything more than you seem to about the international dollar flows. To me, your analysis looks pretty good...as far as it goes; but, you and I are pretty sure there's a lot more involved in it. Perhaps, the foreigners are just holding them in reserve! Perhaps, the Chinese are using the dollars to buy that oil that Cometose says they are stock piling; and Opec is ending up with it--Japanese too, for that matter.

On the domestic front perhaps we are entering that "Theoretical Liquidity Trap" area, where no matter how much paper money the central bank tries to make available to the banks for lending at low interest rates; people don't want to borrow. I believe that we have heard that the Fed. is monetizing treasury debt now. So-- they can put the dollar digits into the system, but if no one cares to re-fi their home now that rates have moved up some--or, people have all the cars and trucks they need filling up the street in front of their houses--or, they have bought up and charged up so much stuff at China's outlet store (Wal-Mart) that the only way they can get more junk to fit in the house is to add on--then, perhaps, we are going to see declining money supply figures as the fractional reserve method of creating money through the banks is stymied.

_______________________

Cometose: Enjoyed your analysis of the McHugh article (that I haven't read, yet) and your take on his analysis in comparison to what you and I are seeing in the markets, the U.s. economy, and the world economy. I agree with the lasso that you throw around the entire issues!!

You mentioned the Puplava radio show: I was impressed with the long quotation that Jim read from the book, Dying of Money, by Jens O'parson. That book is 30 years old and the description of events and outlooks by the Germans and the world toward Germany at the time leading up to the German Weimer Republics fall into hyper-inflation--well, it was if O'parson was holding a mirror before the United States today, and saying, "This is exactly the way that you look, and are observed, today!" I attempted finding that book on line somewhere yesterday, but was unsuccessful.
Belgian
(07/25/2004; 15:55:37 MDT - Msg ID: 123248)
@Goldendome
I was commenting on the $-POG chart and placing myself in the shoes of a dollar-holder, whilst answering Antipodean Bug. If I would be a dollar-holder...I would accumulate further, as "disciplined" as I'm doing as an euro holder. Those savings came in with hard labor and I wish to exchange these for universal Gold-metal wealth as cheap as possible and have fun whilst doing this. But $388/Oz and $317/Oz, are, ...remain... both, "obscene" low prices for the precious wealth. Idem dito for �-POG !

Euro-Gold accumulators don't have these $-POG swings and therefore are missing some of that fun.

Cometose observed correctly, that dollar strength and stockmarket's weakness, go hand in hand, for the time being. Flight into dollar bonds (or cash) !? And it is not an element of stability, when POG should rise, very visibly, when a supported stockmarket show signs of weakness ! I'm trying to think as the interventionists...and try to imitate the Giant Goldmetal accumulators, who don't want to disturb the Goldprice's gorgeous obscenity...

Note that I stick to the ugly word "obscene", because *Interbank* Gold-Values (prices) are in the 4 digits range !!! Not suggested in the charts of course.
But just think about the PoO that has been rising $10 pb multiplied by 80 million barrils a day = $800 million dollars per day, additional confetti flows to cruel oil...or the equivalent of 66 tonnes per day and there are only 10 tonnes of newly mined Gold per day !!! Do the simple on math what this means for Arabia & Co. Don't you think they are somewhat smiling in Dubai !?

WHO is challenging WHO ...with these obscene goldprices !?

A dollar that lost already 20% in exchange rate against its main euro-competitor...a very strong, sustained (sustainable) PoO...and a "visible" goldprice that remains weak...weaker ! And the cheap oil-reserves for the next 50 years, hyperconcentrated in a sandy regio that is treated somewhat unfriendly...
Common guys-gals...wakie wakie !

Higher oilprices means more ammunition to chase the Gold wealth. Soon a $ billion a day. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH AVAILABLE GOLD...! Lower the price of Gold as to mobilize more from underground (roll over + new forward sales) and those stubborn, archaic metal holders. Let those miners dig at break even,... 24/7 and crush the remaining mass of little goldphiles...
Send out the IMF sharks to debt-bite more defenseless states and bring their Goldreserves into the directed re-distribution...

Goldendome, I'm sure you don't mind, me having fun during my modest efforts of further Gold accumulation...smilyyyy


Ned
(07/25/2004; 17:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 123249)
Acquital in high profile Canadian murder....
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040724.wkazemi0724/BNStory/Front/This is a borderline political post.....I hope it survives. There is a link to gold.....I hope to make.

-snip-

"Tehran � An Iranian court has acquitted the man charged in the murder of Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, a case which has severely threatened diplomatic ties between Canada and Iran, the chief defence lawyer said Saturday."

"John Terry also said the verdict was disappointing but not a shock to his client. "I can't say we are surprised with this decision," he said. "The only justice we've come to expect out of Iran in the last year in dealing with this is no justice," he said from Toronto.

"If the Iranians intend to bury this matter through this acquittal, the only option in our view, is to take the Iranians to an international forum and that forum is the International Court of Justice."

"Ms. Kazemi, a Montreal-based Canadian freelance journalist of Iranian origin, died July 10, 2003, while in detention for taking photographs outside a Tehran prison during student-led protests against the government.

Iranian authorities initially said Ms. Kazemi died of a stroke but a presidential committee later found that she died of a fractured skull and brain hemorrhage from a blow to the head..."

-end-

I live in Ottawa and have been following this story from the beginning. Needles to say I am flabbergasted. Mr. Bush's reference to "axis of evil" brings new meaning after this affair. I live a couple kilometers from the Embassy, let me say it's been a busy place, RCMP all over the place.

The reference to gold? If the Iranian government cannot acknowledge that a 54 year woman was beaten to death (skull/brain injuries)for taking photographs in a "non-restricted" area then it's time to ........... well, maybe the Canadian government should get off their.....and sort this out.

The planet has got so completely out of hand in the last few years that it indeed baffles me why gold waffles at $400!? The paper scandles, the political turmoils, the geopolitical timebombs, etc., etc. Why is gold not 4 digits??

I really, really don't get it! Are we on the edge of a world-wide 'super blow-up'? Is this thing going to super implode??

Are gold advocates paranoid or are we REALLY at the cust of the END OF THE WORLD?

Get gold MAN! Now. Real, physical hold in your hand GOLD.

Now.







spotlight
(07/25/2004; 18:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 123250)
Oil/gold
Belgian
Can you clear up a main point that you make. OPEC, mainly the Saudis, "will soon be taking in nearly a billion dollars a day." They surely cannot be converting any meaninful part of that into gold or gold would be over $600 today. As you say, gold is scarce. $100 billion would clean out the entire US gold stock. Bill gates and soros could handle that much alone. Oil has been at these high prices long enough for gold to be at twice its price if oil producers were converting to gold in any meaningful way. The gold market is small. How much could it take to move the gold price $10 a day? At the rate they are going, it seems to me they will be stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars and T-debt when the dollar crashes.
I am pro-gold and am fully invested in gold.
Cometose
(07/25/2004; 18:41:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123251)
Peter Eliades on peculiarities of this Election Year Cycle in the markets
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/consensus121702pv.html


this has some relevant info in it on the failure of interest rate cuts to cure what ails the economy.....

interesting ties to the 4 year (election) cycle including years of 1929-1932
Goldendome
(07/25/2004; 20:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 123252)
Ned: Take a fist-full of valium --and relax!!

Ned: All things in their own time. We appear to be yet in the early stages of a rising bull market; new highs for the move have been put in consistently -if slowly- over the past 3 years.
There are lots of **Big** players in these markets worldwide; we shrimp (Belgian's term) can scurry around -as we should- picking up bits of gold here and there, but we aren't going to move the spot market by ourselves. No way!

You know, Ned: I wouldn't be surprised to find some (maybe a lot) of these players shorting gold in the out futures months, to hold prices down; while at the same time quietly accumulating physical in the spot market! Would you be surprised at this? The fact that spot gold has moved some $150.00 off the lows seems like no small move to me; and perhaps suggests that the pressure is growing from the spot market-forcing prices higher in the futures; though I believe that we see these retracement attacks still launched in the futures, but from ever increasing prices.

If you or I had all the money in the world with which to accumulate a certain commodity, Ned, would we launch a full frontal attack to buy all that we could with a big splash-so to speak. Probably not, for that would immediately alert the market to our actions and drive prices far higher for our accumulation, than were we to nibble around the edges for awhile, accumulating; while at the same time holding the price down by selling the futures.

Well--maybe you ask, why not just buy up a bunch of futures and demand delivery? I'm not sure that I can answer that accurately, except to say, that holding a long in the futures doesn't guarantee you delivery of the product; it may get you more cash and the market closed down, but I don't believe they could deliver to you what they don't have--even if promised.

Then also, we can not forget those who have a particular vested interest in holding down the gold prices to protect their perceived currency values (the government central banks and their cohorts have a vast treasure-trove of paper to throw at these markets, in attempts to hold them at bay.

So-- stay *Cool*. Watch and accumulate--if possible--if you trust in your beliefs that Gold and Silver should, and will be higher. Most good things take time...the world markets now appear to be giving the U.s. financial markets all the rope and slack that they will eventually use-if need be- to hang us with. The slow steady rise in Gold is speaking to many more now, who are not speaking about gold...more are beginning to see the ugly mountain ranges of debt that have been heaped on one another over these seventy years of fiat paper currency and debt. The mountains continue to climb as the base becomes more rotten and unstable. Hang in there!!

We also never can say, if or when, a monster event somewhere in the world will speed up the entire process. I'm not certain that a cataclysmic event is one that any of us would want to experience, for it would threaten us all. No; a slow steady rise probably means that we all get to live in at least the semblance of style that we have, but a catastrophe that would instantly propel gold higher? Who can say what it would usher in?
mikal
(07/25/2004; 21:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 123253)
Black mud and slime on the rocks
What rocks? Any kind of rocks. You've got to love old rocks, and precious metals qualify on several accounts.
At this stage if you're reading this, you're probably one of the few lucky rock lovers.
Nice too when they're studded with ancient sea creatures and shells left by the receding glaciers here in upstate NY or quartz or mica(no precious metals).
As for the dollar, it too is old, loved and covered with mud and slime. With a history as colorful as most any rock,
but like a large meteor more globally pervasive and important.
When foreign investors see where their U.S. Cow and Dog, etc. stock holdings
fare in the global barnyard, or
interest rates and ROI from bonds and other actual dollar-denominated holdings, they have to almost
completely ignore precious metal's
short and long-term moving averages (MA's)
and whether any "correction" is done and even
whether the "price trend" is currently up-
they intuitively know gold is insurance and a store of value and chronically undervalued and that they must diversify or perish.
Now, their's and our choices including physical precious metals, are many and on balance, very, very dollar bearish:
U.S. short-term treasuries domestic(non-U.S.) bonds, (derivative)money market funds(and CD's- Certificates of Deposit), precious metals, cash(not dollars), SELECT real estate or REIT's(Real Estate Investment Trusts), select global equities(such as commodities, emerging markets, defense or energy), corporate bonds, muni's, choice antiques, etc.
Belgian
(07/26/2004; 01:07:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123254)
@spotlight
- Arabian oil always wanted and got easy Gold in exchange for easy oil.

- Asians produce and sell all over the globe and want also their share of Gold.

- Russia also wants Gold in exchange for their resources.

That is an "INCREASING" amount of people who wish to consolidate their finite (resources) and infinite (products) wealth...NOT in paper,...but in real tangible wealth.

We, the Westerners, have been (are still) providing these "vital" goldflows in exchange for cheap oil and cheap products in order to let our political-debt-driven economy, run !

Gold,...the very scarce Gold...had to be mobilized...BY ALL MEANS. Through the creation of the paper-gold-market...CB-Gold...goldmine forward sales...and now even handing over the AAA-South African mine, GFI into Russian hands, because Germany (and France) cannot and want not let Gold flow to Russia.

In order to keep this Gold-flow happening...the goldprice "MUST" remain obscenely low ! A rising goldprice would immediately stop all and any "vital" gold-flow to those that provide the very fundamentals of our global economic system...namely, cheap oil/gas and cheap products !!!

And finally, ...The providers of energy and the producers of products, see that Euroland has a currency of their own and say goodby to the dollar, whilst the energy and product providers are still being paid with ...dollars !

That's the *WHY* of the whole Gold-affair that is taking place, spotlight.
The dollar has gradually lost all of its former value-associations, step by step, during the past 70 years (1933)...30 years(1971)...10 years(euro pregnancy).

As soon as we get hyper-price-infla...it will be understood that value-perceptions have shifted and the dollar-system (reserve) is visibly broken. Then GOLD can,...will...explode (5 digits) as the old $-system of providing Gold for wealth (energy-products), is not needed anymore.
The euro-GOLD-associated currency, will put everybody on a level playing field !!!
Even Mr. Gold-miner, Sinclair...starts to suspect that this brilliant idea, could be in development...
spotlight
(07/26/2004; 02:56:19 MDT - Msg ID: 123255)
oil/gold
Belgian
Belgian wrote:
"In order to keep this Gold-flow happening...the goldprice "MUST" remain obscenely low !"
**********************************
Spotlight:
Your statement above must accept the fact that only a very small percentage of oil receipts can be converted to physical gold. Otherwise the price of gold would not be "cheap" any longer.
**************************
Belgian
"As soon as we get hyper-price-infla...it will be understood that value-perceptions have shifted and the dollar-system (reserve) is visibly broken. Then GOLD can,...will...explode (5 digits) as the old $-system of providing Gold for wealth (energy-products), is not needed anymore.
******************************************
Spotlight:
Your statement above makes a leap to hyperinflation. I presume that hyperinflation comes on suddenly with no time for oil producers to diversify out of dollars into gold, with the hugh amounts of dollars and T-debt they possess. So they end up with the lions share of their dollars still in dollars and T-debt, while the price of gold explodes. Now they have to stand in line for scarce gold, hoping there is some left for them.

While there is still time, why don't they make a deal with some of the mines directly with a price guarantee above the spot market price as an inducement for such a contract. I believe China has such a deal with Harmony gold at present. The contract could be for a dollar amount over spot price on a daily basis. That way they could receive large amounts of gold without moving the market dramatically with such purchases. It would also be to their advantage, as it would take gold off the market causing the price to rise. That would increase the value of all previous purchases. If gold is scarce, as advertised, they could insure their receiving gold by locking up the mines to contracts.


Belgian
(07/26/2004; 03:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123256)
@spotlight....spots the lights !
1/ YES Sir, a very,...VERY tiny amount of Gold-metal is available for conversion into wealth !

2/ Arabian oil "IS" already into GOLD...and secured Gold-commitments that will be delivered into !!!!!
They have been receiving GOLD for the past decades !!!!! BLACK GOLD FOR YELLOW GOLD !!!!!
Arabian oil has "NO" treasuries !!!!!

3/ China and Russia are expanding their goldmining as to get Gold into their vaults. The existing mines (SA-US-Aus-Can) were forced to sell forward, because the "demand-need" for the metal *IS* very high !!!!!!

4/ GOLDPRICES must remain obscenely low as to avoid gold-rushes and block the needed goldflows !!!!!

5/ Goldmines are of strategic national importance (state property) and the mining (gold-flow) has to serve higher purposes for general economical interests.

THE MARGINALIZATION OF GOLD WAS ORGANIZED AS TO HIDE THE UTMOST FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE OF GOLD AS THE BASIS FOR A PROSPEROUS ($)ECONOMY ! Gold needed to go underground...needed to be low profiled, for very, very simple reasons.
It is all as simple as can be ! Don't complicate the affair, unnescessarely.

Now that Arabia is getting enough Gold-metal in their vaults...they can afford to call the shots. I don't know if the Asians have already enough Gold in their vaults as to have their dollar-reserves compensated for the coming loss of the reserve-status of the dollar !? Asians are on the receiving end of the reshufflements of Euroland gold-reserves. Big Brother BIS, banks of the banks,...IS THE REAL CHEF D'ORCHESTRA (Gold transit) in the global Gold affairs !

Once the goldprice explodes, nobody is going to throw away...give away...put available, any nanogram from his/her stashes ...up until the PHYSICAL euro-FreeGold MARKET is up and running !!!

Now I repeat...It is because the POG is so obscenely low, that there is no other way to interprete this as that GOLD is going to live a complete other live ! A tuff paradox, indeed !

And...BTW...one should be surprised when it should be known who the "real" shareholders are of the major goldproducers (Gold = state property). It are "banks" !!! One example : Former Belgian bank BBL (now merged with dutch ING) is a very important (long time) shareholder of...Harmony...a goldprovider to China !
Amen.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/26/2004; 10:05:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123257)
Are you diversified? We can help you get there.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Get a head start on the gold market!
Camel
(07/26/2004; 12:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123258)
(No Subject)

I think I have the solution to the Mideast problems.

President Bush should convene a meeting of the OPEC oil producers. serve some good food , maybe have a couple of drinks, and take the Saudi oil minister off to side,put his arm around his shoulder(in a friendly way) and say to him:

"Son......( long pause)........Your not charging enough for your oil. You'll never make any money this way. You need to raise your prices."

Thats what happened when I first started in business

That way the headlines would read " US insists OPEC raise prices" instead of "Three US soldiers killed by roadside bomb. "
Aristotle
(07/26/2004; 12:52:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123259)
Camel, long time no see. Sooooooo.... what's your take now on the Fed/Treasury?

I hope I wasn't just wasting my time??????????

The more you know...

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Rimh
(07/26/2004; 13:01:12 MDT - Msg ID: 123260)
Dow rythmes
The Dow seems to be at a particularily vulnerable junction today with lots of support coming in to prop at anything lower than -30 pts drops. Will they succeed by the close to keep it respectable?

Word on the golden streets is that the next up move for precious may be coming early next week. Just musings from various sources with technical backup.

Got your gold (and in your own hands)?
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/26/2004; 13:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 123261)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


----Closing market excerpts-----

With caution on the outlook for the greenback limiting any gains in the metals market, August gold closed at $390.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 20 cents....

"Although there are some risks from U.S. economic data this week ... gold has a decent chance to rally, especially if the U.S. dollar regains its negative tone," said John Reade, an analyst at UBS in London.

"Gold continues to offer some buying opportunities, but may not be done with its correction here," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. "The yellow metal has been showing signs of too much profit-taking, which may indicate a rally is near, but only if the dollar resumes its slide downward," he said....

Taking a look at the bigger picture, "prices are still trending higher, helped by expectations for flat to lower gold production this year, an improving world economy, and an accommodative Fed policy on interest rates," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures....

The price of gold "seems to be developing weakness on days the Nasdaq is weak," said Ned Schmidt, editor of The Value View Gold Report, a investment publication of Schmidt Management Co. "This breakdown in the Nasdaq is putting severe pressure on funds to maintain their equity," he said.

As a result, funds "have been forced to raise cash by selling stocks, and by selling other positions such as gold and silver." But Schmidt considers this a "temporary phenomenon that has been profitable for buyers wise enough to step in."....

Stockbroker John Brimelow expects ... gold prices not likely to remain under $400 for much longer...

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr global economic newswire)-----
spotlight
(07/26/2004; 14:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 123262)
Mid-East treasury gold
Belgian
Thank you for your in depth reply.

Can you give me your best guess as to how much combined gold the Mid-Eastern oil producers have in their treasuries vs. how much they have in dollar assets?
TownCrier
(07/26/2004; 15:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123263)
Easy money
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040726/econmy_fed_hoenig_1.htmlHEADLINE: Fed still long way from neutral rates

DENVER, July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates have got a long way to rise before they reach neutral...

"We are still a long ways from a neutral rate as we proceed through the course of the rest of this year," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig told the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce.

"I think that is important to keep in mind as far as monetary policy (is concerned), where we are in the scheme of things," he said.

The Fed raised rates for the first time in 4 years on June 30, lifting its target federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent.

As well as stimulative monetary policy, which Hoenig called still "highly accommodative" despite the rate hike, growth was being boosted by fiscal policy via tax cuts and government spending, while currency moves have helped exports.

"We've seen a big decline in the dollar and that of course is helping stimulate some of the manufacturing side," he said.

------(from article at url)-----

You don't have to stand idly by as inflationary trends and dollar depreciations plunder you down to the bones. Choose gold; when you're given a bargain entry, take it.

R.
Belgian
(07/26/2004; 17:00:32 MDT - Msg ID: 123264)
@spotlight
I don't even dare to make an attempt on guessing what the ME Gold and (petro)dollar worths are. Same goes for the oil reserves estimates, under the sand...the quality...the pumping/transport-cost...etc.

But the basic (instinctive) thinking is extremely simple and very visible : Yellow Gold must one day replace the black gold. The euro-FreeGold concept fits perfectly in their nature. That's why they don't foster the dollar as a store of wealth...but rather as a numeraire to settle their businesses.

But,...how will the nuclear Iranian story evolve, in the middle of the Israel, Russian, Pakistan, India, China...nuclear arsenal !? In the probability of a total chaos overthere, euro-FreeGold is not going to (cannot) contribute to a better system !? In these Big countries (total of 3 billion souls), dangerous nationalism is constantly rising...through provocation...because of the rapid rising tensions between oil-reserves (flows) and oil-consumption (needs).

The fights for power and dominance are always going over the paths paved with conflicts. This can result in shocks such as Oil embargo's...dumping of dollar reserves...blocking of goldtrade...stockmarket collapses...or a devastating bomb...? Never lose the frustrated Russia out of sight. A cornered cat makes funny jumps.




Gondolin
(07/26/2004; 18:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123265)
Ari, Camel et al, Late response
Ari and all, thanks for your comments earlier this week re Central Banks and 'conspiracy theories'. Have read all posts and learnt more of course,but have been too busy to respond. Insightful coments and discussion as usual.Guess I'm left with a foot on both sides of the line as I can see the logic of Ari's response that the Banking system works and that this is an example of private enterprise at its best, yet I still feel that somehow the pervasiveness of it into every aspect of world affairs reeks of something rotten. Guess I'll stick with the old yellow...

Thanks again.
spotlight
(07/26/2004; 18:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 123266)
gold/ dollar
Belgian/Black Blade

Thank you for your thoughts Belgian.

I am still very interested in the fact that statements are made quite often about all those who are accumulating gold.
Like Russia, China, Japan, the Mid-East etc. My problem with this is that if this is the case, there has to be a hell of a lot more gold available for the dollar volume involved in such a small gold market. For example, when we talk about a country like Japan or China diversifying out of the dollar into Euro's and gold,they have hundreds of billions of dollars. I can see them off loading say, twenty five billion in a months time into Euros, but into gold? No way! That goes for all the rest of the worlds institutions. They cannot be accumulating gold in any meaningful way, or else the gold price would reflect the purchases. I am trying to buy the highly advertized line that gold is scarce. All of the above contradicts that premise if the buyers listed above have been accumulating physical gold. Black Blade: Any help here.
Smeagol
(07/26/2004; 18:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123267)
Funny jumps, eh?
Ssir Belgian: "The fights for power and dominance are always going over the paths paved with conflicts. This can result in shocks such as Oil embargo's...dumping of dollar reserves...blocking of goldtrade...stockmarket collapses...or a devastating bomb...? Never lose the frustrated Russia out of sight. A cornered cat makes funny jumps."

S.- sss...perhaps ssome Powers are thinking if they play their cards VERY carefully they can eventually "get back" (invade, plunder, ssteal, freeze assets, change regime) the Yellow-Gold, which they traded for the Black-Gold, (which they've burnt), which the resst of (much of it anyways) now jusst happens to be in the ssame location?

---
Man, I gave you gold,
but not to plunder or hoard.
Save, trade and wear it!
---


Ned
(07/26/2004; 19:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 123268)
Goldendome & anyone upset w/ the murderous barbarians...
Sorry Sir that my rant appeared to be w/ the Yellow. It is most assuredly not. Belgian makes a most astute confirmation today. Here it is:

"Belgian (7/26/04; 17:00:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 123264)
Yellow Gold must one day replace the black gold."

That my friend is the no-lose top-down approach to gold, the long term view. When the oil is gone, what dear Sir will replace wealth. You see, its not really that gold has any particular value or stigma, except for the folks that feel a rock has some sort of inherent wealth. Someone today made reference to gold being a rock, it most assuredly is.

It appears to me, without a shadow of a doubt, that oil is topic #1, even on a gold forum, imagine?. Our beloved Black Blade (and others) post many, many articles about oil and more to the point, the end of cheap oil. Well, well our esteemed host and his colleagues recently had a festival involving "The End Of Cheap Oil"!!

Further, the American government in the beginnings of a full-blown PANIC and waging war for the sake of ???. Surely it is not to instill peace. Is there really anyone on the planet that truely believes George and friends wish to 'liberate' Iraqi's? Does he really, really care?

I am a Canadian so I am completely ignorant to the concept of depleting oil & gas reserves. Canada is a frozen country, with one tenth the population, one tenth the worries perhaps of our American friends. However, looking at the 'cheap oil' problem facing the world and working top-down as I mentioned, it becomes crystal clear that Belgian's phrase is paramount.

Let's review. In 50 years or less oil will be priceless. By 'priceless' I don't mean, by any stretch of the imagination, a good price. In 20 years oil will be many multiples higher than what it is today and from today forward we will have fighting and wars and mayhem. When, not if, the writing on the wall stares the world in the eyes, will they flock to dollars? acorns? Greenspan's oxen?

The world will re-value gold. "Yellow gold will replace black gold" You betcha! The concept is so rudimentary, yet try to explain it to high-tech junkies! We might be able to flirt w/ gold stocks and gold futures and all of that paper crap for a 'period of time' but the end game draws near. In the end, define end dear Sir, physical gold is the final straw. What pray tell is a gold futures option 'worth' in 20 years. Wrong!


Going back to yesterday's rant, here's the Iranian story of the beating of a 54 year old Canadian photojournalist to death:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040724.wkazemi0724/BNStory/Front/


Canadians are horrified. We get all flustered when we forget to put the garbage at the curb on Monday nights. Canadians (wasn't everyone?)were horrified (beyond horrified in fact) at the Nick Berg/Paul Johnson executions. Can you now imagine the attitutes of American soldiers 'over there'? Shoot and shout sh*t? Can you blame them?

Please allow me a little latitude in my horror of a middle aged women beaten to death and yet the whole thing remains a mystery, an unknown.

So where does that leave us? Quite simply, as Belgian reminded us today, oil wealth will begin to evaporate and gold will be its successor. In the interim, expect more murders in both your country and mine.

It's a sad, sad thing.
Aristotle
(07/26/2004; 19:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123269)
Gondolin-man
I wouldn't go so far to say banking is an example of private enterprise ***AT IT'S BEST***, that's not quite what I was going for, but if we're all a step closer toward seeing things in a truer light, then we're so much the better.

The reason I'm keen on having things seen for what they are, rather than casting about with blind vilification, is that it gives a guy the high ground from which to survey the battle field and wage a more worthwhile campaign. The battle isn't against banks and banking in general, but rather against the specific obfuscating banking practices involving contracts of Gold and it's derivatives which short-curcuit a more proper alignment of Gold-market price-discovery.

The good news is that day of reckoning will come. The better news is that with absolutely no effort or qualifying creditials on our own part, we can simply step into the role of Primary Beneficiary of all these bullion banking shenanigans and LOAD UP at low prices which were intended to keep us totally disinterested and sidelined!!

I'll take that deal, and bide my time perhaps all the more calmly for the understanding (not to mention the ever-growing pile of Wealth.)

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Druid
(07/26/2004; 23:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123270)
Subsidized Physical Gold
@Ari,

"The good news is that day of reckoning will come. The better news is that with absolutely no effort or qualifying creditials on our own part, we can simply step into the role of Primary Beneficiary of all these bullion banking shenanigans and LOAD UP at low prices which were intended to keep us totally disinterested and sidelined!!

I'll take that deal, and bide my time perhaps all the more calmly for the understanding (not to mention the ever-growing pile of Wealth.)"


Druid: I don't know if providing a subsidy for us bugs was their original intent but what the heck, I'll acquire as many of those shiny coins as I can afford to while the getting is good.
Belgian
(07/27/2004; 00:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 123271)
@spotlight
Now, you have come to the very hart of the matter, Sir !
Huge, drifting mountains of paper debtbergs, still percepted as wealth...against a mole's heap of Gold...the metal ! THAT'S WHY PAPER-GOLD WAS SO EASELY INTRODUCED !!!
In 1997, LBMA traded 1,500 tonnes of papergold, PER DAY, ...and that was only the visible part of it !!!

This papergold-market can only keep functioning when the goldprice remains (obscenely) low and with a constant aura of percepted weakness (unusefulness), around the metal's value.
The only purpose of this papergold market, is to keep as many as possible, OUT OF PHYSICAL GOLD !!! This, to allow the Gold-fanatics, to be served... or risk BIG trouble.


There is a dramatic shortage of the metal for distribution into those TRILLIONS of percepted paper wealth. Impossible to serve this false wealth with goldmetal AT THESE OBSCENE PRICES !!! If only an infinitesimal fraction of these paper-debt-bergs, should make one little move towards gold-metal accumulation...this would bring an enormous goldprice explosion and most probably an instant collapse of the world's monetary (and economic) system. Yes, Sir...this threath is as dramatic as it sounds ! But it will NOT happen this way, because the papergold market has printing presses behind it and nobody is served with an intentional cataclysmic event.

For the goldprice to rise to its proper Value, without dramas,...ANOTHER goldmarket is needed,...a PHYSICAL one !

One's paper-assets (Google IPO-hum) are NOT representing one's wealth. And that's a very, VERY tuff thing/message to get trhough. The present and coming oil-pricing is going to make this clearer,...step by step,...day by day...up until suddenly, a majority grasps all of a sudden, what the relative worth of all this paper really is...was.

Paper in your hands, has NO limits...Gold in your hands, does !

99.99% of those who hear this story, immediately think convincingly that...this paper-thing will go on for as long as I live, and...apr�s moi, le d�luge (after me, you can have your tsunami). Very convenient, isn't it !?

But this is NOT the way, that 1/2 the globe's population on the Eastern side, is thinking. They simply laugh at this Western notion of paper wealth, that isn't !

Our obsession to "paperize" everything is absurd and will collapse. Simply because the bulk of our entire wealth and prosperity is build on "managed" debt. And this debt-management is of global proportions. Currency exchange rates...cheap production by others...cheap resources provided by poverellos...etc...etc ! We keep on dancing around the crater of a vulcano with ever louder music as distraction ! More and louder music, maestro (AG), please.
Belgian
(07/27/2004; 01:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 123272)
@smeagol
Frighthening thoughts, Sir...!?

- Think about all the Gold that moved during the WWII-period...
- Think about all the Gold (20,000 tonnes) that moved away from the US, pr� 1971...
- Think about the re-shufflements (re-distribution) of euro-CB-Gold...
- Think about Iran repatriating 400 tonnes from London...
- Think about the Swiss, asking how save "their" remaining Gold is in N.Y....
- Think about the seized two gold-trucks in Iraq...

Frighthening, indeed smeagol.

But forcing the globe's goldmining into forward sales (3,000 tonnes) as to remain functioning at break even...is also a form of modern Gold plunder.
Forcing some CBs to put their Goldreserves at risk to serve the common interests...

Sofisticated, modern Gold confiscation...!? And yet, Gold uniquely, survived already for 50 centuries...the papers didn't !!! These signs of gold-plunder are telling me that paper-values will gradually be replaced by Gold-Value, as happened cyclically through the ages. 4 ounces of Gold for 1 Google share...Yahoooooooooooeeeeee.
Belgian
(07/27/2004; 02:17:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123273)
@Ned....priceless oil....
Oil has already been proven priceless for the past 3 decades, Sir !!! We have been shipping the most precious and scarce wealth asset in exchange for having this priceless oil available as the very basis of the world's prosperity.
No oil...means,...no obscenely overpriced Google & al (paper).
Now this Gold for oil-system, is gradually coming to its end. Papergold has made Physical Gold, too scarce...too fast ! And this Gold for oil, has inspired other manufacturers of wealth...and they are with a group (army) of a couple of billion people !!! And there is no way that we can compete (fairly) with them for a considerable time to come. Think about "what" the whole currency exchange rate business is all about.

Optimists remain convinced that we will be able to drag this new "producing" world (the East) into the (our) dollar-system...and keep them there, ad infinitum !? Ain't gone happen, dude.

And with this element, you have the "WHY" for the many appaling atrocities that are taking place.

All this is certainly impacting the "timing" of the transition from unfree to FreeGold ! Big Changes always happen through periods of drama...human suffering. Any suggestion to change this law of nature ?

Belgian
(07/27/2004; 03:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 123274)
*** The Poet of Finance *** C.Mayer (GE)
"Brilliant" article !!!

In the end paragraph, the "pin"-question, remains unanswered.

I think that the many "Golden" pins are already placed at the bubble's outer skin.

The oil-price pin has already pearced the bubble's skin and the air is getting out very slowly, because the pin has to penetrate deeper, before it can be pulled out and make the hole free as to let the air escape, freely.
Translation : Oil-pricing is forcing the dollar-euro FreeGold transition with gradual pressuring. Once the PoO is high (deep) enough...abundant cheap oil can flow again in exchange for infinite wealth.
Ned
(07/27/2004; 04:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123275)
Belgian
"Any suggestion to change this law of nature ?"

You betcha!

As the esteemed Aristotle mentioned almost a year ago (in reference to oil):

"Maybe we could (simply) pay for it"
-----------------------------------------------------

In the meantime stack barrels of oil in your backyard.......and if that doesn't suit the Mrs., slowly accumulate gold, because Greenspan's oxen is not the ticket.

Have a golden day.
Ned
(07/27/2004; 04:03:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123276)
Belgian
I am shocked Sir! You are not rushing out and getting in on the DEAL of the decade, the Google IPO?

;)
Ned
(07/27/2004; 04:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123277)
Toying w/ a new signature phrase..............
"A gram a day keeps the bullets away"

Kind of catchy, eh?
Ned
(07/27/2004; 04:12:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123278)
Belgian
One last thing before I head off to the 'salt mines'. I was watching a young lad discussing the merits of the Google IPO on the goob tube last night. There is a 50/50 chance he had reached his '30's' and was introduced as an "institutional manager". As BB might say, I chuckled and giggled throughout the interview as to why he thought this 'offering' was overvalued. Yes, he said the share offering was OVERVALUED.

It was the 'comedy show' for 20 minutes before retiring last night.

A bientot!
Topaz
(07/27/2004; 04:59:26 MDT - Msg ID: 123279)
Oil Futures.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/quote.htx?sym=CLU4&mode=i&view=2As PoO is now resisting all efforts to track lower, it's interesting to watch action in Futures as Traders slowly but surely come to REALise the inevitability ... higher up- days and lower down-days are now the norm in the outMonths. This WILL culminate in a spectular reversal some time real soon imho.
Belgian
(07/27/2004; 06:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 123280)
Ned
Allow me one more correction before you rush to the saltmines...
Our honorable Ariste (the best) forgot to mention that we have been paying for the good and cheap Arabian oil, right from the beginning...WITH CHEAP GOLD !!!
Now that both, Gold AND Oil, become scarcer...BOTH will REVALUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEW, REPLACING, CURRENCY !!!

Off you go now...and many thanks for your stimulating thoughts...google, google.

Hoi Topaz : A dramatic down reversal in oilprices...!?
Nothing is never to be excluded. But could you elaborate on the reasons why this is such a strong probability...and how will the POG react to this ? TIA.
Topaz
(07/27/2004; 07:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123281)
@Belgian.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=The reversal I was alluding to was in Oil futures backwardation mate, which I think is imminent as the PoO has been contra-trending Bonds/DX since late June (ref Link)
Gold (the Price) will imo come under pressure as DX, now under Oils spell, will test 92 real soon ... "price" is irrelevant at this point.

Boilermaker
(07/27/2004; 07:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123282)
New Derivitives Game
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_eia_desc.jspsnip;
Crude Inventory Options
"The Exchange plans to begin offering clearing services for over-the-counter options on the weekly crude oil storage number released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. The crude inventory options will be traded through an electronic auction in which the options prices are based solely on the relative demand of participants � the more popular the strike, the greater its value. The options will be offered for trading by ICAP and cleared by the Exchange.
The first crude oil inventory auction is expected to be launched sometime during the summer..........
This market will build on the successful implementation of two previous economic derivatives markets based on a framework developed by Longitude, Inc., and successfully used in auctions launched by Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Deutsche Bank in October 2002, and mortgage prepayment derivatives launched in June 2003 by Goldman Sachs. Both were developed in partnership with ICAP, the world's largest inter-dealer broker and one of the world's leading electronic brokers of fixed income securities."

comment,
Another game at the Casino. Is this one structured to help manipulate the oil and gas markets? Topaz, or anyone have some thoughts on this? If you go to the Longitude website you will see that Goldman-Sachs, ICAP and NYMEX are listed as their clients for these derivitives.

Druid
(07/27/2004; 08:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123283)
@Boliermaker

Druid: My guess is that they're (paper faction) going to try and manage this price BIG time. They need to manage this price moreso then the gold and silver. Oil and its derivatives hit at the heart of the check book for Joe and Jane six pack thus the major intervention that will be needed to keep the masses deluded. Joe and Jane six pack do not understand the SIGNIFICANCE of the price of gold or silver but do OIL.


Here's one of many problems; you can mistreat the bond crowd in the form of taking out the 30 yr. long bond for what it represented and you have ruffled some feathers, no biggie; you can plunder the gold and silver crowd because we're a small crowd relatively speaking and have difficulty mounting a response(not until the giants are ready to move will this significance be understood); The oil crowd, on the other handis a very diverse crowd, good luck.
Clink!
(07/27/2004; 08:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123284)
Good grief ! Did I really here that ?
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/26/dems.clinton.transcript/index.htmlI was watching the DNC on TV last night. The actual content is mostly cheer-leading and the usual political rhetoric, but I was only watching for entertainment value. It's a bit like listening to a song that you don't particularly care for sung by a great singer - you have to appreciate the oratorial skill.

And then came this from Bill Clinton :-

'Now, how do they pay for that deficit? First, by taking the Social Security surplus that comes in every month and endorsing the checks of working people over to me to pay for the tax cuts. But it's not enough.

'So then they have to go borrow money. Most of it they borrow from the Chinese and the Japanese government.

'Sure, these countries are competing with us for good jobs, but how can we enforce our trade laws against our bankers? I mean, come on.'

Can't get much clearer than that. Of course, despite all the commentary on all the things he said, I haven't seen or heard one meaningful comment about that particular section of the speech (Disclaimer : OK, I haven't tried very hard). I guess the media isn't up to a discussion of the real issues.

C!
Aristotle
(07/27/2004; 10:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123285)
Yippeeeeeee!! No complaint from meeeeeee!!!!
Looks like the paper Gold derivatives system has gone tripping merrily through the Forest of Price Discovery and stumbled down the rabbit hole into the sort of twilight zone which I like to call... (drumroll please)........ Christmas in July!

You know, it kinda makes it hard to get all riled up when the "adversary" keeps serving up these favorable terms. The only tough part is to stop smiling long enough to lend a hand to the elves loading up your sleigh. Better yet, let the FedEx guys handle it.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/27/2004; 10:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123287)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very handy e-mail newsletter available to prospective clients. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

admin
(07/27/2004; 12:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 123288)
Client only special offer - Two days remaining
This is a reminder to our clientele that the deadline to participate in the investment opportunity presented by our July buyers' group private mailing is approaching. As mentioned in previous posts, we believe the analysis accompanying this special will be relevant for some time, but the discounts will only be offered until 5:00 P.M. MST on Wednesday. All questions should be directed to the trading desk at 1-800-869-5115. Once again, thank you to those who have already participated in this group. It has been a great success.

The staff at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
TownCrier
(07/27/2004; 12:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 123289)
US Treasuries slide after weakly-received auction
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040727/markets_bonds_4.htmlNEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply for a second session on Tuesday as disappointing demand for an auction of inflation-protected debt compounded losses triggered by a jump in U.S. consumer confidence.

The $11 billion in new 20-year TIPS, the first issue of its kind at this maturity, drew bids for a modest 1.49 times the amount on offer. They went at a high yield of 2.47 percent, well above expectations.

...Bonds had already been reeling from strong consumer data, which suggested the Federal Reserve's prediction that a June slowdown in consumption was temporary may prove true.

...economic data reinforced the bearish tone in the market...

...the benchmark 10-year note slid 22/32 in price, lifting yields to 4.58 percent. That was up quite a bit from a low of 4.35 percent last week and surpassed the ceiling of this month's tight trading range, lending further technical momentum to the selling.

-----(from url)-----

In the mix of a diversified portfolio, the advantage physical gold has over bonds is a practical, physical limit to new supply. The same cannot be said, however, regarding the endless potential of new bond auctions concurrent with a depreciating dollar, including devices such as these new-fangled 20-year inflation-indexed securities seen being introduced to the market here in a trial size of $11 billion offered.

A further study in market psychology is found in the fact that the reporter nonchalantly included this following opinion in the midpoint of his article:

[quote] ...bond investors might do well to wait for more concrete economic data before bailing out of the market.[endquote]

When was the last time you heard a similar recommendation to "hang in there" in a gold-related article coming directly from the author's own voice or pen? In fact, the only time you hear hold recommendations in gold articles is when somebody else, such as a portfolio manager, is being quoted.

Wasn't the reporter able to find a reputable external source who was willing to go on the record as recommending bonds?

Call USAGOLD~Centennial for a consultation about prudent diversification through gold today.
1-800-869-5115

R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/27/2004; 13:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123290)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our freeintroductory information packet detailing the products and services offeredby USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and lookforward to working with you.


----- Closing market excerpts -----

An unexpected rise in U.S. consumer confidence sparked gains in the dollar and dulled investment demand for the precious metal. U.S. consumer confidence improved sharply in July on an upturn in the jobs outlook, the Conference Board said Tuesday. "In conjunction with this data, the U.S. dollar and equity markets received an injection of much needed optimism to lift them from their recent state of bearishness," said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading. "And with bulls propping up equities and the U.S. dollar, the gold and silver markets lost their footing, with gold hitting a fresh low for the month," he said....

A jump in the U.S. dollar after strong economic data put gold futures in New York on the defensive Tuesday, analysts and traders said. Aug gold lost $3.30 to $387.30.

"It was very much dollar-driven," said an analyst who frequently visits the trading floor. "The euro came off after the consumer-confidence report, and gold came down with it."

"It's dollar-related," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Chicago. "The dollar is simply screaming. We have penetrated 200-day moving averages in all of the currencies and the dollar index. The market believes (Federal Reserve Chairman) Alan Greenspan's optimistic forecasts. The dollar is rallying sharply, so the metals are naturally falling sharply."....

In a more upbeat outlook, Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication, believes "metals ... are building constructive technical pictures." And while the U.S. dollar continues to be gold's biggest antagonist, "key currencies like the euro are above where they were when gold and silver hit their lows back in May," he noted. All in all, "these bullish indicators suggest a significant base is being formed despite the marked increased bearish sentiment," Grandich said.

Much of the bearish sentiment in gold over the past several sessions is "a spillover from the poor-performing mining share sector, especially the junior resource market," said Grandich. "Here, one would think gold was battling $300, not $400, based on how badly juniors have fallen," he said...

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr economic newswire)----
Federal_Reserves
(07/27/2004; 14:05:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123291)
Clinton Speech - Twin Deficits (government and trade)
These policies have turned the projected 5.8 trillion dollar surplus we left-enough to pay for the baby boomers retirement-into a projected debt of nearly 5 trillion dollars, with a 400 plus billion dollar deficit this year and for years to come. How do they pay for it? First by taking the monthly surplus in Social Security payments and endorsing the checks of working people over to me to cover my tax cut. But it's not enough. They are borrowing the rest from foreign governments, mostly Japan and China.

Sure, they're competing with us for good jobs but how can we enforce our trade laws against our bankers?

> That last line was great! Catch 22 on trade.


TownCrier
(07/27/2004; 14:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123292)
HEADLINE: Zimbabwean central bank increases gold price -- nearly U.S. $500 per ounce
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/28/content_1659004.htmHARARE, July 27 (Xinhuanet) -- The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ),the country's central bank, has increased the gold support price from 71,000 Zimbabwean dollars (13.3 US dollars) per gram ($413.67 per oz) to 85,000 Zimbabwean dollars (15.9 US dollars per gram, $494.54 per oz)) with immediate effect, the RBZ Governor Gideon Gono announced here on Tuesday.

Gono said foreign exchange surrender arrangements would remain the same for those who did not opt to offload their gold into local currency.

The various support initiatives extended to the gold industry by the central bank since the beginning of the year have also underpinned the increase in deliveries.

Gono said the country expected not less than 22 tons of gold for the whole of this year, which would represent a volume increase of 83 percent over 2003.

-----(excerpts from url)-----

Isn't it becoming ever easier to see the signs of breakage? Picking up a few dozen or few hundred ounces you can call USAGOLD~Centennial and get them for a bargain $100 per ounce LESS than the going rate being offered by the Zimbabwe Central Bank. Are they foolish for paying their price, or is it more foolish for you remain sidelined at the lower price you have available to you?

Call today.

R.
Smeagol
(07/27/2004; 17:23:55 MDT - Msg ID: 123293)
a CB gold-bidding war?
...is thiss how It might sstart the sky-shot, with banks bidding for what they can't get, offering independent prices so hopefully ssombody will ssell them ssome before It's all sspoken for?

S.
Smeagol
(07/27/2004; 17:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 123294)
Or...
...maybe the Dollar-Paper is beginning to be worth a little LESS in other places than it is in the U.S. ... it has to sstart ssomewhere, eh, precious?

S.
Camel
(07/27/2004; 18:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 123295)
Ari
Sorry not to get back to you, but I often spend a few days at a time out in a remote area without a computer. As I mentioned high finance is not exactly an area in which I have much experience but I'm always anxious to learn more of the details about how things work and you seem to have a pretty good understanding of it so if you are in a mood to answer questions , I suppose I have a couple.

The treasury issues bonds to pay for government expenditure, various entities buy these bonds as an investment: individuals , foreign governments, bond funds, corporations.etc. If there are not enough private buyers for these bonds, then ,as I understand it, the Federal Reserve( which is a consortium of private banks) buys the bonds, in effect loaning the government money. There is also said to be some process in which this money is "created out of thin air" that I don't completely understand and I wouldn't mind learning more about how that is done(smile). The other question I guess is how much of the 7 trillion government debt is actually held by the Federal Reserve.Also what is an" income transfer payment"

There were a couple of other parts to my previous post that you didn't address however. For instance you say:

"The typical taxpayer tends to prefer his taxes being kept low, and current evidence shows he isn't inclined to riot if the Government borrows rather than taxes. You can almost hear Johnny McMainstreet whispering his silent prayer, "Thank God the Treasury is able to sell its bonds to *somebody* to raise billion$ because I'm all tapped out."

As I mentioned there was just such a revolt on Main Street during the 90's led by Ross Perot. My memory is a little hazy on this but I think he got 19 % of the vote and that is often cited as the reason Bush lost to Clinton in 92. He was going to run again but dropped out I believe because he said he got word the Republicans were going to smear his daughter.Clinton latter made the balanced budjet one of his key issues, and of course he got the smear job.

I guess I'm thinking that you might be a bit too sanguine about the $350 billion( approximate) annual interest payment on the 7 trillion dollar national debt. You seem to be saying , no you actually do say, that this $350 billion is of no consequence, so I guess I would have to question your judgment on this issue.

There were a couple of other points like this where you seem to me to be a little off but in general I enjoy your posts.
Golden Lionheart
(07/27/2004; 18:32:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123296)
Another great buying opportunity?
IMVHO we will see a gold price of $355 before we see $455.........Another buying opportunity.
Don't miss out.

Smeagol
(07/27/2004; 19:20:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123297)
...at any rate,
Sinclair TOLD us It was going to hit 480 by August. (grin)

S.
Aristotle
(07/27/2004; 21:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 123298)
Camel-man says, "You seem to be saying , no you actually do say, that this $350 billion is of no consequence."
Where do you think I've said THAT???????!

I'm certain I haven't talked about the overall service charge on the national debt in any context of posts for as long as I can remember, so I can assure you my attempt at communication has run completely afoul if this was the interpretation you came away with. It wasn't even a topic of my discussion. Sorry.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Camel
(07/27/2004; 23:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123299)
Ari
I can understand that you might not wish to claim your words , but their meaning is perfectly clear, little Johnny McMainstreet down on his knees thanking God that his government has borrowed more money so that he won't have to be taxed. You've clearly made the innuendo that if the "government borrows rather than taxes" there is no harm in it. Of course the harm is a steadily increasing percent of tax money is used as an interest payment. Your statement isn't taken out of context , its part of a series of several posts which you extol the virtue of the banking system. Its not a rhetorical devise your using . Your not saying Johnny is foolish for believing this. Your saying that he is right.

"The typical taxpayer tends to prefer his taxes being kept low, and current evidence shows he isn't inclined to riot if the Government borrows rather than taxes. You can almost hear Johnny McMainstreet whispering his silent prayer, "Thank God the Treasury is able to sell its bonds to *somebody* to raise billion$ because I'm all tapped out."



Goldendome
(07/27/2004; 23:25:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123300)
It's a mad-mad-mad-mad-market!

Man--What a whacky market...after days of pushing the dollar up along with bonds--hammering the stock markets; and making gold holders feel like they hold hot coals in their hands--

Now today, traders gathered the stubs in the restroom-comparing orders-and came running out to launch the stock market on the fuse of the little report (I presume) that consumer confidence gained some in June...Hot digity! And, with that-- the dollar drops some--and the longer term bonds took quite a hit (over 100 pts. I beleive on the 30yr). So- Gold gets clobbered again and many of the gold stocks gain anyway, cause they're linked to paper.And on top of all this! Oil hits up over $42/brl.
Sheesh! What a crazy world!

Ok, the next thing will probably be, that since the bonds fell, there's going to be renewed fear about higher short term rates, coupled with inflation fears do to higher consumer confidence and a growing economy...So, get ready for the stock market to get whacked again, soon.
Goldendome
(07/28/2004; 00:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123301)
Rhodium
"Hhmmm...Rhodium?! Those Wiley devils must be try-in to get the corner on the Rhodium market!
mikal
(07/28/2004; 00:26:03 MDT - Msg ID: 123302)
On precious metals, ants and grasshoppers
@Ari and all- Re: "in the context of your posts". Always look forward to your parables, wisdom, and spontaneous opinions alike. Keep up the good work.

On precious being precious, naturally:
Re: "It's the elections" -
A common and shortsighted thesis today is
that gold and silver are being manipulated to languish until the clock strikes midnight November 8th, 2004.
That's also the day after elections, winning results are
finalized and all or most money- smart, average AND dumb- supposedly wakes up and heads simultaneously for a tiny stagecoach exit on whatever 4 -wheeled bubble you wish to highlight.
But smart money knows TPTB control public perception and manage public opinion through their monopoly on major media and mainstream "infonews"- before, during and after staged "polls" and "voting" and by using careful control of entitlement funding and emotional triggers to ensure adequate public compliance, complacency and "homeland" security.
Seeing that the market's fate- bonds, currencies, equities, oil, gold, options, futures, all markets- is not out of the
manager's hands and not their main concern-
the oligarchs are strategically positioned for unexpected events and predetermined junctures alike, so smart money
is walking in their footsteps with gold.
"The powers that be" have "new policies" for any elected president to slowly unveil after the elections, shrouded in either liberal or conservative slogans and abstractions and with Congressional cowtowing and institutionalized acquiescence, way beyond broken campaign promises.
TPTB will have enigmatic elite foreign visits for the new (or reelected) administration prearranged to promote geopolitical suspense and market uncertainty and so further legitimize the prevailing
global market trends and economic conditions.
The power elite(PE) perfunctorily choose the candidates for the new U.S. Congress, inner cabinet and advisors from their exclusive membership roster, be it from Skull and Bones Society, Council on Foreign Relations(CFR), Trilateral Commission, Bilderburg Group, Illuminatis, Ivy League grads, large multinational corp., investment bank or special interest group.
They can be counted on to portray the first few months of a new President's term as a "wait and see" time for giving him slack while he makes his speeches, chooses his staff, announces policies, and generally plays the part of the people's representative and God-ordained constitutional guardian.
And establishment shills may better fawn over and bicker about his(or her) performance and any rumored scandals
or intrigues may ripen further.
Then too it's the season for a new budget
with contracts for ritually rewarding "campaign contributors", insiders and other vested interests, all while setting up small corporations and taxpayers
for their quadrennial shearing.
Gold...get you deep into it.
mikal
(07/28/2004; 01:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 123303)
@Goldendome
Re: "What a whacky market...what a crazy world."
Yes, but beneath the sometimes
perplexing twists and turns there is rock-solid certainty and vindication.
Tuesday I believe was gold options expiration.
The dollar is rumored to be short-term supported from short-sellers, funds cashing out of equities, etc.
There are major bond imbalances(and interest rates).
Ditto extremely serious energy and oil complex dependency and affordability issues.
Numerous other commodities are in inflation mode.
Central banks policies are too inflexible, limited and obligingly "easy" to head off crisis.
Global precious metals supply/demand fundamentals are "out of this world" bullish. ;)
U.S. debt- public and private including corporate, mortgages, home equity refi's and credit cards- are at record levels and accelerating exponentially upward (and in many other nations) as foreign confidence in dollar denominated investments and U.S. leadership is falling decisively.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and many or most
hedge funds are self-destructing.
Equities are overbought by several orders of magnitude. Accounting(pro forma, etc.) deception and fraud continues in U.S. corporate earnings statements and Federal and State budgets and statistics.
Pension and investment fraud and mismanagement appears no less than a tragic timebomb, including most leveraged moneymarket funds and other derivatives.
Progress against worldwide resource depletion and human rights violations is shallow at best.
Chronic malinvestment at all levels of government and
industry are suspiciously coincident with insidious unemployment, drug abuse, large prison populations(U.S. has highest rate in industrialized world) wars, child labor, etc.
968
(07/28/2004; 02:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123304)
SA CB Governor Mboweni on the Rand.
"BUSINESS DAY" --- 27.7.2004

Mboweni in bid to calm rand storm

Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni has called for more balance in the debate about the strong rand, reiterating his views expressed last week that the currency's gains were good for low inflation and the trade sector.
Mboweni, whose contract as governor was renewed last Friday for a further five years, has come under attack for his perceived support for a strong rand in the face of falling export revenues and job losses in the local mining and manufacturing sectors.

His comments yesterday follow a week of public debate between him, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, the Congress of SA Trade Unions and organised business on the rand and its effect on the economy.

Addressing business students at the University of the Witwatersrand yesterday, Mboweni said although exporters were coming increasingly under strain, all sectors of the economy had to be taken into account in assessing the effect of the rand, which recently hit a five-and-a-half year high against the dollar at R5,88.

While exporters' revenues have been slashed by the rand's 40% gain against the dollar since last year, retailers had benefited from a consumer spending boom, fuelled in part by cheaper imported goods and lower rates.

"There is no doubt at the moment that some sectors of the economy are under stress, including mining, and some parts of manufacturing.

"Other sectors of the economy, such as services and the retail trade sector, are booming. One must always have a balance when looking at the economy, particularly when making any public comments," Mboweni said.

While the Bank has come under increasing pressure to cut rates, so reducing speculative interest in the currency, Mboweni yesterday dispelled the notion that cutting interest rates would weaken the rand.

He said the effect of the interest rate differential on the currency's strength was less than some critics made it out to be, citing high commodity prices and stronger economic growth prospects as important reasons for the rand's strength.

Mboweni pledged that in his second term as governor he would continue to pursue low inflation and build forex reserves gradually. He said he saw inflation breaching the 6% ceiling imposed by the government at the end of the year before coming down to the 3% to 6% band early next year.

Business Day
-----------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------
Seems like the South African Central Bank wants to take some pressure from the Rand. Mboweni let's an opening for lowering IR.
968
(07/28/2004; 02:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123305)
New pressure on Yukos.
http://host1.tagesspiegel.de/newsticker/ticker/detail.php?id=29781The Kremlin accuses the former second man of Yukos, Leonid Newslin, of murder on 3 people. Newslin would be in Israel for the moment.
misetich
(07/28/2004; 04:42:19 MDT - Msg ID: 123306)
Bush Seen Projecting Record Deficit
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=GBZLCQCWUZZHGCRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=5789833Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House is expected to project soon a record federal budget deficit of about $420 billion for 2004, which could give ammunition to both sides of the election-year debate over tax and spending policies.

Congressional sources said on Tuesday the White House review of the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, was likely to project a deficit about $50 billion greater than 2003. But the new figure would be nearly $100 billion less than forecast five months ago.
..........................................
***********************************
Misetich

ANOTHER record high for the budget deficit! and thats not including off- budget items

The lack of job creation insures budget deficits will remain for years to come- Worse still any RECESSION will see the deficit soar to unparalled level

Recession?

High oil prices have 90% of the time led the US economy to a recession -
Is this time different?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 05:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123307)
Home Sales Still Sizzle
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19472-2004Jul27_2.htmlSnip:

There's no consensus among economists on what could happen later this year and beyond.

Some say the nation is in a housing bubble and prices are too high by as much as 20 percent. "The fact that there has been an unprecedented run-up in home prices over the past eight years creates the possibility for an unprecedented decline in the years ahead," Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research wrote in a recent report.
...........................
Others say talk of a bubble is rash. Robert P. Curran, senior director of Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its primary analyst of the housing industry, said concerns about bubbles and rapidly rising mortgage rates appear to be overstated.

"People have been calling the peak for five or six years, and it just hasn't happened," Curran said.
............................
"In the next six months to a year, we see mortgage rates close to 7 percent and at that point, the home-buying activity will ease a bit."
........................
****************
Misetich

Hot money always follows inflation - and the housing market globally reflects this phenomena.

What will bring this overheated sector to a halt?

Saturation point and affordability- Are we there yet?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 05:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 123308)
Dollar rallies on upbeat confidence data
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087374036944&p=1012571727092Snip:

The dollar pushed to multi-week highs against a basket of currencies in European morning trade on Wednesday as it continued to bask in the warm glow of Tuesday's upbeat US consumer confidence data.
................
"US consumer confidence data appeared to provide evidence in support of [Federal Reserve chairman Alan] Greenspan's view that the softness in the US economy will be short-lived," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of forex strategy at Calyon.
****************
Misetich

Since Sir Greenspan's testimony and pronouncement of sustainable stronger growth for the US economy a week or so ago - the following has occurred:

The US $ has rallied
The US stockmarket - initially tanked and then recovered
Gold prices dipped almost $20
Euro and Yen weakened

Why?

Nothing really has changed - except the attempt to manage perception! aided by manipulation and intervention - aided by willing funds riding the wave.

How long will this "wave last"?

From a fundamental standpoint - the end of this wave is near -

The reality factor is TOO HUGE a factor to be overcome-

- consumer spending is waning
- wage increases are low
- employment benefits are rising and the burden shifted to employees
- poor quality or non-exhistent job creation
- unemployment (they say 5.6%) is rising - thus eroding the tax base
- corporate earnings expectations are being lowered
- energy prices are rock and rolling upwards
- Real price inflation is in the DOUBLE DIGITS
- budget deficits are still soaring
- trade deficits are still soaring
- current account deficit is still soaring

Sir Greenspan's cure for the fundamental ills - INCREASE IR!

- will higher IR increase or boost housing?
- will higher IR increase or boost automotive industry sales?
- will higher IR increase or boost consumer spending
...............................................
The inflexion point for this wave is near - very near- and the overvalued US $ will resume its long trend pattern - downwards

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 05:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 123309)
China's foreign trade expected to top 1,000 billion US dollars
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-07/28/content_1666637.htmSnip:

BEIJING, July 28 (Xinhuanet) -- China's foreign trade volume is expected to exceed 1,000 billion US dollars this year, said an official with the Ministry of Commerce here Wednesday.

Wang Qinhua, director of the MOC Bureau for Industrial Damage Investigations, made the prediction at an international seminar on the World Trade Organization Doha Development Agenda.

China's foreign trade volume was 851.2 billion US dollars last year, up 37.1 percent year-on-year and ranking fourth in the world, following the United States, Germany and Japan. In the first half of this year, it reached 523 billion US dollars, up 39.1 percent year-on-year.

The current vigorous US economy was a "very good signal" for the world economy. The world economic growth was expected to hit 4.7 percent this year, also a "good indication", she said.
********************
Misetich

The Red Dragon's economy keeps on marching on- consuming worlwide natural resources

It is interesting to note - that the talk or spin of China's government is to RELAX is the stringent conditions applied to overheated sectors in the past few months as it brought it to a standstill

Thus it can be expected the COMMODITIES bull market to continue - and that DOUBLE DIGITS price inflation in the industrialized world to continue for some time to come- which will make the managment of perceptions more difficult

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
Topaz
(07/28/2004; 05:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123310)
Buckle up GoldBugs.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOWThis could get real UGLY!
As expected our Bond/DX protagonists are buckling under the pressure of ever higher Oil as she flexes her Muscles.
In this blessed trinity of equals, Oil can now be viewed as a little more "equal" than the others imho.
misetich
(07/28/2004; 06:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123311)
Oil flirts with 21-year high
http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/28/markets/oil.reut/Snip:

Bailiffs order Yukos to stop sales; supplies strained, concerns mount over lack of spare capacity.
.....................
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices pushed towards fresh 21-year highs Wednesday after bailiffs ordered beleaguered Russian oil giant Yukos to stop sales.
....................
U.S. light crude for September delivery rose 24 cents to $42.08 a barrel, pulling back from a session peak of $42.20 that was just 25 cents below early June's 21-year high. London Brent crude was up 19 cents to $38.73 a barrel.

Prices jumped after a company source said bailiffs told Yukos' four production units, which together pump 1.7 million barrels a day of oil, to halt sales of property -- including oil.
.....................
The decision is likely to hasten the collapse of the firm that pumps around 20 percent of Russian crude supply -- the world's second biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia -- after five years of rapid production growth.
...........................
Venezuela's oil minister said Tuesday the producers' cartel had little spare capacity to help lower high oil prices.

"A cut is not foreseen, and most of the countries are near their production limits," Rafael Ramirez told Reuters.
*********************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe continues -

Russia, Saudis, Iran, China and Venezuela are key players and flexing their muscles

..and the stakes are being raised

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 06:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 123312)
One-On-One With Fed Chairman Greenspan
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc072304.pdfSnip:

This statement and the change in the FOMC's inflation forecast from the all-items PCE chain price index to the core PCE price index imply that the Fed will accommodate, or "monetize," higher energy prices. Assume that energy prices rise, for whatever reason, but non-energy
prices remain the same. This would push up the price level, inclusive of energy prices. But, apparently, the Fed would not raise its funds rate target in response. As a result,
households and businesses would be encouraged to borrow more at an unchanged interest rate in order to finance their increased nominal energy expenses. If they did so, they would not have to cut back on their purchases of non-energy goods and services. By not raising the funds rate in the face of rising energy prices, the Fed, in effect, ratifies, or monetizes, the higher price level brought about higher energy prices.
....................
Greenspan is a master of coming up with superficially plausible explanations for all kinds of economic events after the fact.
His latest is the notion that the recent rise in inflation is due to rising profit margins. But profit margins are a red herring. Greenspan clearly states that businesses have been able to raise their prices because of stronger demand. And the stronger demand is related to the ultra-easy monetary policy the Fed has been pursuing.
So, unless the Fed starts to get "ahead of the curve," demand can stay strong and prices can continue to move up at an accelerated pace.
........................
Greenspan is economically schizophrenic in that he thinks that competition will limit inflation but that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Competition will limit profit margins; money supply growth will determine inflation.
........................

Finally, are household balance sheets in better shape? Not that much in terms of debt relative to assets. Chart 9 shows that the ratio of debt to assets (valued at market prices) on a four-quarter moving average has fallen by only 16 basis points in the first quarter of this year from its previous high of 17.49% in the third quarter of 2003. Chart 10 shows that what little decline there has been in this ratio is due to the increase in asset values, not a
slowdown in household debt issuance. And what has been the principal factor contributing to the increase in households� assets? Chart 11 shows that households� assets have been increasing in recent quarters mainly due to the holding period gains on the value of their houses and their financial assets � not from their net acquisition of houses or financial assets. The Fed's easy money policy has led to the bidding up in price of houses and corporate equities. So, if the Fed brings interest rates up from their artificially low levels, the value of households� assets could fall, as it started to do in 2000 after the Fed had
raised interest rates. But the value of the debt won't fall. Thus, households� balance sheets, which already look debt-heavy, are likely to look even more so if the Fed continues to hike interest rates.
********************
Misetich

Its well worth repeating - from above -

Greenspan is a master of coming up with superficially plausible explanations for all kinds of economic events after the fact

He didn't deal with the stock market bubble - but HE'S STILL TRYING to deal with its effects 4 years later

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 06:44:46 MDT - Msg ID: 123313)
Fed's Bluff and Bluster: Where's Sgt. Friday?By Russ Winter
http://321gold.com/Snip:

Over the last few fortnights, market observers have witnessed a parade of Fed officials strutting their inflation fighting prowess. They talk about the "history" of the Fed and their "credibility" on this front. Amazingly, the market cognoscenti seem to hang on their every word. The Dollar spikes, metals plunge, bonds and stocks churn based on these utterances.
...........................
This observer finds the disconnect between the Fed's utterances and their ACTIONS to be quite profound. So much so, that I am inclined (as difficult as that can be) now to just ignore the talk and propaganda and focus on the facts, m�am. Joseph Goebbels would have been proud to see his Orwellian "big lie" approach practiced so blatantly.
..................
Prior to May 5th, and for the previous 52 weeks, the Fed "bought outright" (monetized treasuries typically) about $577 million a week. This is a number that is easy enough for even arm chair market players to follow. After all why wait for the Ministry of Propaganda to tell you all this before a flock of "group-think" Congressmen? It's in Barron's market lab section, or in the Fed's web site here: www.federalreserve.gov

But starting May 5th, the spring break smoke and mirrors drunk and orgy began. Here are the weekly figures for debt monetization by the Fed:

5-12: $2,199,000,000 (that's roughly $2.2 billion)
5-19: $1,748,000,000
5-26: $453,000,000
6-2: $1,441,000,000
6-9: $1,598,000,000
6-16: $1,914,000,000
6-23: $63,000,000 (a break in the action to clean Mr. Porcelain from the night before?)
6-30: $2,056,000,000
7-7: $569,000,000
7-14: $2,106,000,000
7-21 $2,507,000,000

The 12 week average is $1,395,000,000 per week. The last 8 week average purchases were $1,532,000,000 - 266% more than the pre-May 5th level.

And for good measure the Fed has elected to be "diligent" about fighting inflation by adding $13,345,000,000 in permanent injections into the system over the last two months.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/permanent.html. Permanent injections are another mechanism that the Fed uses to inject high powered money into the system. This is effectively a very low interest loan of medium duration (90 days to over a year) to selected financial institutions. Those "friends of Al" then invest and/or speculate in the debt markets. You will often see these "loans" materialize just before a big Treasury auction, when they are then are used to absorb this paper.

Here are the weekly numbers since early May:

5-12: $1,692,000,000
5-24: $783,000,000
5-26: $796,000,000
6-2: $1,400,000,000
6-8: $1,000,000,000
6-9: $1,035,000,000
6-23: $1,390,000,000
7-7: $1,557,000,000
7-13: $398,000,000
7-14: $1,898,000,000
7-22: $1,396,000,000

Then there's the obvious one, a Fed funds rate that is at least several percentage points lower (if not more) than the real rate of inflation. Are the Wizards inflation fighters? I submit in the Land of Oz only, just the facts, m�am.
**************
Misetich

....and if the above is not enough - here's some more - (same link)

Snip:

Foreigners continue to speak with funny accents and to pile up our debt, as if owning 40% of our debt is not enough, and last week they managed to choke down another $4.8 billion to stash at the Fed. The Fed itself created some more money out of thin air and bought outright another $2.5 billion of US government debt, committing that ugly, blatant fraud again, which takes their 12-month total up another $40 billion, to a grand total of $692 billion.
.....................
The Treasury has also been busy, and total federal debt hit $7.3 trillion.
..................

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
968
(07/28/2004; 07:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123314)
Gold - oil.
- Today 3,36 grams of gold equals one barrel of oil !
- Today 3,360 tons of gold equals one million barrels of oil !
- Today 268,8 tons of gold equals 80 million barrels of oil ! (+/- daily world demand of oil according to EIA) !
- Today 98112 tons of gold equals 1 year of oil demand !

If oil (and oil reserves) and gold are scarce, if oil (and oil reserves) and gold are wealth, why is gold so unbelievable cheap in relation to oil ?
misetich
(07/28/2004; 09:59:50 MDT - Msg ID: 123315)
U.S. June durable goods orders up 0.7% -Excluding defense, orders fell for third straight month
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/myway-com/news-story.asp?guid={36C21305-2F64-4884-BEF8-C23D160CFB9D}Snip:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Orders for new military aircraft pushed orders for U.S. durable goods 0.7 percent higher in June, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
..................
The rebound was "feeble," said Steve Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich.

"Shipment growth is slowing sharply and inventories are still accelerating," said Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics. "Inventories are now outgrowing shipments. This leads to a clear inventory build up ...and then a slow-down in output?"
......................
The report was weaker than expected, "consistent with the softer pace of investment seen throughout the second quarter and providing only modest encouragement for an early third-quarter rebound," said Mat Johnson, economist for ThinkEquity Partners.
.......................
Orders for computers and electronics decreased 1 percent on falling communications equipment orders.
***************
Misetich

The "soft patch" which Sir Greenspan alluded to during last weeks testimony is softer than imagined

Greenspan last stand - just as ANOTHER valiant general of yesterday - Custer - must be admired

The gambit is huge - but he can't fool all of the people all of the time

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/28/2004; 10:30:56 MDT - Msg ID: 123316)
New Poll Finds that Venezuela's Chavez Would Win Recall by up to 10%
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1321Snip:

Caracas, Venezuela, July 27 (Venezuelanalysis.com).- A new poll of Venezuelan voters finds that, if the election were held today, the recall referendum on President Hugo Chavez would fail.
......................
The survey shows the referendum losing by eight percentage points, with forty one percent (41%) of all voters in favor of recalling President Chavez and forty nine percent (49%) opposed to recalling the President.
*****************
Misetich

Good news for Chavez not so good for the current US administration

...and not good news for cheaper oil prices

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is being underestimated- as prices are continuing higher and its effects imbedding themselves in the world economy

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
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(07/28/2004; 10:31:10 MDT - Msg ID: 123317)
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Get a head start on the gold market!
Aristotle
(07/28/2004; 12:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 123318)
A Camel of one... or a herd?
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2120047/default.htmlCamel-man, I should take a poll to see if there's anyone else who shares your bizarre interpretation. Then I'd know that the burden is definitely upon me to brush up my elocution and try again. If you stand alone, the burden of rereading for contextual consistency of interpretation is upon you.

Let's take this one good example of your general brand of error. In your #295 post you are putting words in my mouth to the effect that I "actually do say that this $350 billion" (i.e., annual interest payments on the swelling national debt) "is of no consequence," and then you raise this to issue to prime importance by implying that because of it my judgment is called into question.

In my #298 post I assured you I made no such statement and called into question your interpretation. Unfortunately this led to your #99 response in which you succeeded only in further jumbling up the matter by trying to justify yourself with additional off-base and out-of-context interpretations.

How can I even begin to make positive headway in the universe of your thoughts/mind where "the usual laws of physics" don't seem to apply???!

First of all, you're right in your contextual observation that I'd recently made a series of posts about banking, and yes, they were certainly not *ANTI-banking* in tone. But I'd hardly characterizing them as "extol(ling) the virtue of the banking system" as you put it in #299. To speak of banking system "virtues" is a whole different kettle of fish and would require a completely different analysis, the outcome of which I cannot now predict prior to the exercise. (In fact, I went so far as to say in my #157 post, "Look, I'm not trying to convince you that central and commercial banks here and abroad are next in line for deification. They're not. But they do have popular support...")

I'd like to believe that more focused readers saw that the point of those several posts in question was not as a commentary on sector ethics and morality and greater-good sorta virtues, but rather that it was pointing up the SOCIAL REALITY that goodly portions of our population DO use the banking system facilities to their personal benefit and under free will. Without passing judgment of good or ill virtue, the point was to stress that the sociopolitical reality and outcome of that level of public support was that "the banking system" as an institution was here to stay, notwithstanding evolutionary tweaks occurring here and then.

Additionally, where I used the following word-picture
---------You can almost hear Johnny McMainstreet whispering his silent prayer, "Thank God the Treasury is able to sell its bonds to *somebody* to raise billion$ because I'm all tapped out."-------
you objected in your #299, stating to me, "Your not saying Johnny is foolish for believing this. Your saying that he is right."

Bull.

My opinion doesn't enter this one way or another. I wasn't making personal socially commentary of agreement or contempt. I was painting a picture of a social truism that I thought most readers could identify with, the truism that the *TYPICAL* taxpayer tends to prefer his taxes being kept low, and current evidence shows he isn't inclined to riot if the Government borrows rather than taxes. Your subsequent citation of minority support for Ross Perot HARDLY undermines the foundation of my observed truism. And again, let me assure you, the observation of a social phenomenon can be made objectively and without necessarily introducing matters of personal prejudice or opinion. For me to serve one point of a discussion by simply observing that Johnny likes his taxes low tells you nothing on another point of discussion regarding my own deeper thoughts on the consequences of soaring federal government budget deficits.

I suggest you go back to the archives and look at the context of questions and topics I was trying to address rather than assuming my comments on another matter had any direct applicability to your personal pet peeve.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(07/28/2004; 13:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 123319)
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The Daily Gold Market Report has beenupdated.

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---- Closing market excerpts ----

Gold futures prices rose Wednesday to log their first climb in eight sessions, with investors taking advantage of the losing streak's nearly $20-an-ounce drop in the face of concern about commodity exports from Russia.

August gold gained $2.00 to end at $389 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.

News from Russia on the potential halt of oil production from Yukos could boost gold, said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage. "The news from Russia could develop into something more serious," he said. "If oil exports are halted, employment conditions will be less than ideal" and "exports of other raw commodity materials could be halted..."

"Gold and silver had a massive turnaround from the early lows, as the dollar, which was strong, did give way at mid-session," said Scott Meyers, analyst at Pioneer Futures.

Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, an investment advisory publication, said ... "The longs who bought as gold was topping $400 recently rushed to exit the market," but "even during the selling of the past week or so,
there has been substantial buying of physical gold in the background, particularly from Asia"...

----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire)----
White Hills
(07/28/2004; 13:25:38 MDT - Msg ID: 123320)
Aristotle
Sir Camel isn't the first poster on this forum that have advanced opinions and questions and built the same on a false premise. It is a favorite tactic of many people especially in the public forum to build their case or argument from facts that aren't true. You can't have a meaningful discussion or debate unless you start with what is true. It is very flustrating in these cases to have a dialoge with anybody that refuses to agree on what are the facts. In this case Sir Camel has obviously slipped a hump. I have read many of you posts and to tell the truth some of them were right over my head, so much so that I wouldn't even attempt to discuss them with you. Maybe Sir Camel is that way and still wants to question you on what you said or didn't and then try to tell you what you meant.
Keep up your posts on this forum, a lot of us read every word and are grateful for your imput.

Misetich... It doesn't surprise me that the markets are moved by what GS and the Fed says, The facts are that the market doesn't make any money unless stocks move up or down. The worst thing to happen to the market would be for it to remain about the same. If you look for any reason to it you will go nuts or broke. Only those on the inside that make the market move always make money. White Hills
Camel
(07/28/2004; 13:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 123321)
Ari
Ari - Sorry if Ive offended you. I've made the point I wanted to make and don't see much need of beating a dead horse. I'll concede your assertion that:

" the observation of a social phenomenon can be made objectively and without necessarily introducing matters of personal prejudice or opinion. For me to serve one point of a discussion by simply observing that Johnny likes his taxes low tells you nothing on another point of discussion regarding my own deeper thoughts on the consequences of soaring federal government budget deficits."

Perhaps a more constructive endeavor might be for you to critique Mistech post #1233134 quoting Russ Winter.Winter paints a much more sinister picture of the Fed. than you, going so far as to compare it to Goebbels, something I wouldn't ever have dared to do.

If I recall correctly you said the Fed had an income of 23 billion, 500 million of which was paid to its stockholders, another 500 million to its trading account and the remainder, the lions share, was returned to the treasury as an " income transfer payment.

Winter on the other hand asserts that the Fed "bought outright" (monetized treasuries typically) about $577 million a week'......"to a grand total of $692 billion."

Perhaps there is some common sense way you can reconcile these two activities that will support your much more benign view of the Fed.
Aristotle
(07/28/2004; 15:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 123322)
Camel,
OK. At your request I've had another look at Misetich's repost of that Russ Winter stuff and I'm freshly reminded why I originally ignored it when I first skimmed through it this morning. Winter doesn't seem to have a clear enough vision of his chosen subject matter to warrant any further pursuit of him down that dark alley. He makes a foggy presentation of his first list of numbers, leaving me (and other readers) to guess at what they might truly represent, and when he then goes on to butcher his explanation of permanent injections, my faith is his competence is undermined to the extent of not seeing any point in pondering further at my own expense any meaning that might accidentally be found in his first list and ultimately, in his presentation as a whole.

Communication places burdens of obligation on both the presenter (for continuity and clarity) and the listener (for comprehension); but when the presenter *FAILS* in his primary duty, the listener may then, at his prerogative, in good conscience turn away without further obligation. I don't know... maybe Mr. Winter isn't entirely a lost cause, but since he isn't here why should I belabor the shortcomings?

But that's his problem. You, on the other hand, ARE here, and I'm obligated to strive together with you in the interests of better communication. You seem to be trying to make too direct a connection between my brief overview of the Fed's income/expenses on one hand and Winter's attempt at explaining the Fed's open market operations on the other hand. You ask me to reconcile the two, but Winter's weakness has me somewhat at a loss -- I'm not sure what he's trying to say, nor am I sure what it is that you've made of it.

Howzabout leaving that clown out of the mix. Tell me exactly what it is in all of this that rains on your parade, and then I'll do what I can to fetch the sun again. Okay?

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari
Boilermaker
(07/28/2004; 16:25:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123323)
968 msg#: 123304
http://allafrica.com/stories/200407230402.html968, Thanks for posting the Mboweni reappointment story as Governor of the S. African Central Bank (SARB). This is (to me) a remarkable decision by Mbeki who, by many accounts, is a closet Marxist who is friendly with the likes of Zimbabwe's Mugabe, Cuba's Castro, Lybia's Qaddafi and Nguema of Equatorial Guinea. Mbeki's reappoint of Mboweni, who appears to be an old style european inflation fighter, is equivalent to having Paul Volcker reinstalled to the Fed Chairmanship. These SA leaders do not seem to be compatible.

I would like to hear from any SA forum members who could offer some insights here. There is something mysterious about this event that just might involve gold. Perhaps Mboweni and his employer Mbeki are in the employ of bullion banks trying to starve SA gold producers into their clutches, a scenario suggested by Ari.
Ned
(07/28/2004; 16:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123324)
968
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2004/0727.html

"Today 268,8 tons of gold equals 80 million barrels of oil ! (+/- daily world demand of oil according to EIA) !

If oil (and oil reserves) and gold are scarce, if oil (and oil reserves) and gold are wealth, why is gold so unbelievable cheap in relation to oil ?"

Interesting take! At this rate, approximately 10 days of oil consumption (=2,688 tonnes of gold) equals annual world gold production. How can this possibly be?

Oil is consumed, each and every day 80 million barrels are gone, forever. The 'above ground' gold production, more or less stays.

Here's the rudimentary step by step that I see:

a) a few years ago gold was ultra-cheap (<300) and oil was also ultra-cheap (<20). I'm not sure if this co-incided in the late '90's or not.

b)as the world, in the earliest stages, understands that cheap oil/peak oil is under way oil will begin to spike. We might be at the infancy of this stage. I predict oil up to $50 or $60/bbl is the 'infancy stage'. Gold will lag oil severely simply because a) oil will be getting the attention and b) the 'store of wealth' aspect of gold is not understood (YET!).

c) as oil accelerates (peak 2006-2008?) towards 3 digits (BIG OUCH!) the monetary/wealth/reserve/substitute value of gold will begin to sink into the brain-dead that gold was/is/will be re-valued into the stratusphere. Here's that Belgian 5-digit, yellow replaces black business. He is correct except that he is being too modest!!

d)Here's the ENDGAME (a very good read)

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/2004/0727.html




Federal_Reserves
(07/28/2004; 17:04:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123325)
Ned>Oil/ gold relationship indirect
In my experience rising gold is associated with uncontrolled and irresponsible management of the balance of trade and government spending, all this exacerbated by central bank monetization of the debt, this resulting in a consequent reduction in the value of the dollar, all enveloped in foreign and international problems of great difficultly. To the extent that rising oil contributes to this mess, particularly the balance of trade, there is a valid relationship, but it is indirect. So in my mind, a disconnect between oil and gold is not unusual for periods of time. Similar the level of interest rates does not have any impact on gold, it is a indirect influence.

If the US government starts to reduce its deficits (trade and spending), and the dollar rises, we see a calming of foreign problems (terror and stability) gold would fall. For now I see no evidence of any trend reversal in this regard so holding gold make sense.

A current times the deficits (trade, fed deficit) is running at near 10% of GDP, points at which countries such as Argentina/Brazil have laid on austerity programs. If the US government ever has to borrow in foreign currency rather than US dollars, we will probably be on the road to bankruptcy, and gold will be selling for 3-4k/oz.

JHMO.

slingshot
(07/28/2004; 17:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 123326)
The Prophecy of Oro
Climbing onto their horses, Gandalf said to Cougar. "Go and warn the villages and insure they move south to our castle. We have very little time to save what we can".
"If they will not listen" asked Cougar. " Tell them they will perish" answered Gandalf. "Misetich,Bandit and I will head west to the great ocean. It is there we will find Sir Oro, if he can be found" "Waste not time, for it is more precious than Gold' said Gandalf, and with that they separated to go their separate ways.
At the castle the Goldbugs had heard rumors of the incident at Hammerton. Those at the "Oaken Table", had noticed the absence of some and they knew something was amiss. Sir M.K. asked to meet Sir Black Blade on top the castle wall.
When Sir Black Blade came onto the wall, the sun was about to set. As He then came close to Sir M.K. he heard him say. " Call the Captain of the Guard. Have him send two riders to each town and village to the north. All the way to Hammerton. One to return any information that threatens us and the other to help those if need be. Have him also reveiw the defences of the castle and stores".
"As you wish" said Sir Black Blade and left his presence.
Cyrus,after enjoying his elevation of status in the Dark Forces, returned to the cavern. Standing in the hall and watching the flames burn on the blackened fluid, he heard a voice from behind. "What are your first orders,Cyrus?".
A short pause and in a confident voice said," Retake Hammerton and free Therroth". "Very good", said the voice.
Slingshot-------<>
Camel
(07/28/2004; 19:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 123327)
Ari
I was looking over your earlier post and I find that you have this to to say:

"Look, I'm not trying to convince you that central and commercial banks here and abroad are next in line for deification. They're not. But they do have popular support, for generally good reason, and there's no getting around it. It begs the question, "Why would you even want to???" (Get around it, that is.)"

You beg us to ask the question " Why would you even want to get around it" referring to the central and commercial banks.This is not little Johnny on his knees thanking the lord ,this is you expressing your opinion , your value judgment of the situation. You accuse me of putting words in your mouth but this is a rhetorical question that you are asking, and it contains the innuendo or inference that anyone who might question the status quo is foolish and misguided.

One reason that you might want to get around it is that the country is swimming in debt said to be about 30 trillion including 7.3 trillion national debt. Another poster perhaps rightly said it is not the Fed , but the government that is the culprit here, but the Fed is the enabler or the mechanism by which it is created

Another reason why someone might want to get around it is the point that I made earlier.It is my understanding that the primary owner of the Fed is the Chase Manhattan bank which is the remnant of the old Rockefeller empire. Chase recently merged with JP Morgan to form a massive new banking Conglomerate JP Morgan -Chase. Morgan and Rockefeller at one had accumulated huge monopolies over many basic industries during the early part of the last century and while they were separate entities then they have been united into something perhaps more mighty than before

In addition to this merger of JP Morgan -Chase there has also been the recent merger m of Exxon -Mobil. These were the two parts of the old Rockefeller Standard Oil Monopoly but now all these parts of the old monopolies that have been reunited in effect creating a new entity which perhaps should be named, JP Morgan -Chase -Exxon- Mobile.

I know this "doesn't scare you" but I'm certainly not the only one that has observed and decried the growing power of the giant corporations.

There was little book put out a number of years ago entitled Who Rules America that went into great detail about the interlocking nature of the Boards of Directors of the various major old line corporations showing how various individuals often from the very old wealthy families or the military sit on the boards of half dozen major corporations, the implication being that there was and is an incredible concentration of power in the hands of a very few people, and that these groups could exercise enormous power over the legislative process through lobbying and campaign contributions,hand picking and grooming like minded individuals to put in offices.

This vast banking- oil -automobile-cigarette and military conglomerate for the most part acts as a cohesive entity shaping the political agenda furthering its own interests and the interest of the various insiders associated with it.

I guess it has to do with ones perception of the basic nature of reality .This is the reality I see.

In your post you go on to say;

"And, no, it doesn't "scare" me that we find at the depths of the Fed a base of private shareholders. Of course not! Hell, I'd have thought any group of independent-minded Goldbugs would be the first to hold up privatization in high praise as the very best model for enterprises in a market economy."

That is your reality.

I can't give you the precise details but at the turn of the century Rockefeller had a monopoly on oil that was used in the fledgling power industry and routinely withheld their product causing large spikes in prices. This state of affairs led to the creation of the various municipal power utilities that supply electricity to the nations cities. These utilities however are gradually being taken out of public controls and we have seen the same pattern of price fixing and fraud. Enron etc.

Walmart is currently undertaking the largest expansion in the history of the planet and has every city in the nation divided into a three mile grid where they plan to build a super store profoundly effecting the nature of our society overwhelming the individual and small business which formally was the bed rock of our culture.It has made China its principle supplier of products creating massive flow of funds to China and engages in questionable labor practices with its employees

I could go on but you probably get the general idea.

I guess the main thing that effects me personally is the rapid destruction and urbanization of the rural countryside caused in part by this mindless growth , growth , growth mantra perpetuated and enabled by the banks and corporations. I will soon have 500 trucks rolling past my front door where before there were only fifty. New York City dumps its sewage on the nearby desert land , there is a mad scramble of the various corporate water purveyors for our desert water rights,a new nuclear waste dump is under construction nearby and the once magnificent vistas of 100 miles or more have been reduced to just a few miles from pollution from the coal plants in Mexico and smog from Houston.

I guess your Pollyanna , best of all possible worlds viewpoint just leaves me a little cold . Sorry.
Aristotle
(07/28/2004; 20:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123328)
Near-sighted Camel
That our commercial banking system DOES in fact have popular support is testified to in the Main Street usage of those institutions, and the by the mere minimal minority rancor seen expressed here and there. It was in an attempt to provide some much needed perspective regarding the popular position of banking as a going social institution that I casually aimed my rhetorical remark "why would you want to get around it?" with the rancorous wingnuts uppermost in mind.

If you are a spokesman for the wingnuts, I'd like to have you make a cogent presentation instead of mixing a lame fruit cocktail of argument out of some of my apples and oranges. Yet for some bizarre reason you insist on trying to jam my perceptions of the banking system into an unwarranted juxtaposition with whatever the hell is going on with the FederalBudget/NationalDebt and in regard to the various international and domestic (both public and private) entities that buy the bonds to finance that debt.

To get further into your peeve, you give the Federal Reserve waaaaaay to much "credit" when you cite it as the enabler/mechanism for the obscene size of the debt. The BrettonWoods and especially post-BrettonWoods parties that cooperated on the silly notion of an international reserve status for the Dollar was the enabler you're fishin' for. Why don't you ask somebody to post the list of who has financed this country's bloated debt by buying its bonds? Sure, the Fed has bought some of it, but nothing like the majority you imply. And if it makes you happy, I'll be just as quick to say the Fed will probably someday somewhat soon be on the buying end of a helluva lot more of it when all of the Reserve-dollar folks throw in the towel and switch over to a FreeGold reserve model.

Seeing the thrust of your anti-corporate pet peeve, let me assure you that you can continue railing all you want against the influences and actions and impacts of private corporations, and I can continue to read your words, but then what? Do you think the reality of any of it is gonna be changed on your opinion and your say so?

No. Certainly not acting as dim minority.

That's why my original emphasis -- to recognize banking as an institution supported by the masses under the bright light of day -- has its merits. For those of us who would see life be better on the other side, it allows us to recognize the unmovable mountain for what and where it is, and to get nevertheless to our destination by going over or around it, taking and blazing trails instead of foolishly beating our heads against a rock wall.

You just keep bangin', pardner.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Aristotle
(07/28/2004; 21:19:25 MDT - Msg ID: 123329)
A final word, Camel
Just to be sure, my "reality" in all this is certainly not that I'm sympathetic to the Fed and carrying its water. The correct interpretation is that I'm more accutely aware of the imposing force known as "majority rule" and therefore resign myself to currently accept the Fed and the banking system for what it is, warts and all.

You can call me Pollyanna because I'm willing to perceive that FreeGold is on its way as an even more imposing force, and that it will irrevocably alter the global scene decidedly for the better. Imagine that!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
PRITCHO
(07/28/2004; 23:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 123330)
BRAVO CAMEL - - - - WELL SAID INDEED (Msg123327)
As someone who normally lurks I'd like to publicly confess that I agree with ALL of the reasons Camel gave for his line of thinking.

The btm line is YES -- we all use paper money & Banks for one reason or another.That doesn't mean we have to like them NOR let their predatory behaviour continue.At some time the rulers of the universe will have to be given the message that their behaviour is not going to be tolerated.
Public executions may be warrented! A new system (still paper based for convenience) BACKED BY FREE GOLD will have to be implemented. The American FED system is corrupt & has to changed - - even if at the point of public guns.
Also I would lay odds on that the FED is at the forefront of any GOLD manipulation. Bugger that!

Having followed many exchanges at USA Gold over the years I am not surprised at Aris responses to your comments.He seems to find it impossible to agree with ANY thought from anyone that is contrary to his own. Thats a problem.

As for White Hills bit of brown nosing -just ignore & please keep posting.I appreciate the thought you gave your subject. White Hills on the other hand usually comes out of the woodwork on some sort of Patriotic mission that is indefensible.

MarkeTalk
(07/28/2004; 23:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 123331)
Hedge Funds--"Financial Times"
Today's issue of "The Financial Times" had a big article on hedge funds and their attendant dangers. Apparently what was once the purview of the rich has now become the investment alternative of the middle class through pension funds. Hedge funds number, according to some sources, around 5,000.

The days of LTCM could return soon because of the increasing use of derivatives. In the good old days when hedge funds numbered few and far between, annual returns were around 11%. Nowadays, due to a crowded investment arena, returns are barely 3%. This underperformance is driving hedge funds to take on risks they would have shunned in the past. The leverage they employ is 141%, which means for every $100 in assets, they have debt totalling $141. All it would take for a financial meltdown is one large fund betting wrong in one market. All the computer programs in the world cannot hedge against another terrorist attack, which attack would certainly destabilize the markets worldwide. This is another rational argument for diversifying one's portfolio with gold.

GC
Black Blade
(07/28/2004; 23:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 123332)
Is Saudi Arabia running out of oil?
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp
Snippit:

The Saudis claim to have plenty of reserves, but a top energy expert disputes that. Without any independent data, the world is dangerously in the dark, he says.


Black Blade: As I said before, Saudi is maxxed out. Saudi "jawboning" just does not cut it anymore. Today Russian Yukos (the country's largest oil producer) was closed up and production ordered to halt. Oil soared to $43/bbl. The world watches and beginning is well underway. Get prepared and diversify with tangible assets (like PMs) and non-perishable food storage and basic goods.



White Hills
(07/28/2004; 23:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 123333)
PRITCHO
Yes Sir PRITCHO, after throwing a few slurs at me you never addressed the content of what I said. That is pretty typical of your type of critisism, all fluff and no substance. Another one in the herd has slipped his hump. White Hills
Black Blade
(07/28/2004; 23:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 123334)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

While the US economy shows signs of slowing, the increasing demand for commodities is a global event. With demand for energy soaring, especially in China, the Russian government has ordered Yukos (Russia's largest independent oil producer) to stop oil sales. In a Reuter's article, "Yukos has said it faces imminent bankruptcy as courts seek to enforce a $3.4 billion tax debt for 2000�A halt to sales would hasten the collapse of the company." ConocoPhillips has expressed an interest to bid on the company, but it looks more like the Russian government would prefer to nationalize Yukos to keep it for themselves. They played a similar game with Pan Am Silver by burning them on a $38 million investment in a mining property due to "licensing problems."

Black Blade: They may also sell off the company piecemeal as the former oligarch owner sits in prison for supporting an anti-Putin candidate. He shoulda stayed outta politics as Putin is former KGB. Yikes! It's like trying to face down the Gestapo in Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, Lukoil remains relatively untouched and intact.
Aristotle
(07/28/2004; 23:42:43 MDT - Msg ID: 123335)
Pritcho, believe it or not, ol' bean, you and I are halfway on the same page!
Minus your rant about public executions and guns, which is enough to make me want to ignore you entirely, it surprises me how much of the civilized portion of your post is in line with the things I've been saying. If we mentally smooth out the rough edges, your "btm line" is a stripped-down outline echo of my own bottom line.

Let's look at it again, shall we? You said:

----------"The btm line is YES -- we all use paper money & Banks for one reason or another. That doesn't mean we have to like them NOR let their predatory behaviour continue. At some time the rulers of the universe will have to be given the message that their behaviour is not going to be tolerated. [...] A new system (still paper based for convenience) BACKED BY FREE GOLD will have to be implemented."-------------

The similarity is almost perverse, isn't it?

And yet you come in here guns a-blazing, agreeing with Camel (whatever that means.)

As for saying I can't agree with any thought contrary to my own, Hmmmmmmmm... let's think about that for a minute. Isn't that the very nature of the meaning of contrary? Show me a person who CAN agree with a contrary thought and I'll show you a man who has adopted BOTH sides of an issue.

Criminey! What a world.

Now the thing that I'd like to know is this: how well is a fervent Camel-agreeing guy like you going to sleep at night knowing now that your "bottom line thoughts" are exactly the same as mine?

Like a baby I hope.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
PRITCHO
(07/29/2004; 00:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 123336)
RE BRAVO CAMEL - - - - WELL SAID INDEED (Msg123327)
Well guys thanks for the quick responses. Firstly I must say that I am not going to engage in long drawn out back & forth arguments/discussions. I said what I wanted to say.

WhiteHills - Any content that was there I addressed.

Aristotle - You do not disappoint.
Aristotle
(07/29/2004; 00:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 123337)
Did anyone see McTeer today in Santiago?
All I can say is "Whoa.... where the heck did that euro-directed negativity suddenly come from??!!!" Sounds to me like the Federal Reserve boys are beginning to crack under the strain, seeing the old Dollar-reserve system is in reality becoming bested by the budding FreeGold model.

Gold. Closer each day to Freedom. --- Ari
Aristotle
(07/29/2004; 00:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123338)
And now for something completely different. The longer view...
We often discuss the topic of artificially cheap $Gold (marketprice) being provided as a compensation for artificially cheap $oil.

However, not nearly often enough do we express the nitty-gritty reality of the nature of that compensation to the various parties.

Oil is unique with no equivalent replacements. To the extent that $oil is kept artificially cheap, all users that buy their oil at the artificially low $ market prices reap an unusually large asymmetric benefit in trade from the low price.

The flip side of that coin is that all producers that sell their oil at the artificially low $ price are NOT getting in this exchange a full and fair compensation for the value of oil being sold at the low price.

Arguably, the compensation that the oil producers aren't getting through their few dollars received via sales of cheap oil, is arriving more fully in the form of access to Gold which has been similarly discounted in the public market eye with artificially low prices.

At first blush this might seem like the oil producers are coming out of this arrangement even-Steven. Cheap oil traded for cheap Gold. Maybe... but not just yet. More on this in a bit.

Gold is unique with no *equivalent* replacements. To the extent that $Gold is kept artificially cheap, all *users* that buy their Gold at the artificially low $ market prices reap an unusually large asymmetric benefit in trade from the low price. (more on the meaning of *equivalent* and of *users* later...)

The flip side of that coin is that all producers that sell their Gold at the artificially low $ price are NOT getting in this exchange a full and fair compensation for the value of the metal being sold at the low price.

However, if the Gold producers are sharing and reaping a benefit along with the rest of the world -- of getting access to cheap oil thereby -- then maybe the overall cloud for them has a silver lining. (But, for the sake of making a larger/different point, I'll simply drop this thread here and leave it for others or myself to pick up at a different time.)

Let's get back to the notion of the *users* of Gold. Note that I didn't qualify or emphasize the term users when it applied to oil. That's because all users of oil are basically the same type of critter insofar as their use of oil is a variation on a theme of consumption.

Not so with all Gold users.

Some users do indeed buy Gold with the intention of "consuming" it in the course of their industry -- dentistry, art, jewelry, electronics, plating, etc., and *these* are the specific users that I intimated in my earlier paragraph.

BUT...

But, there is ANOTHER set of Gold users that we must consider. Again, unlike oil, not all Gold is bought with the intention of "consumption." The most vital Gold destination is simple holding. Savings. Wealth. A tangible everlasting conclusion of one's efforts in trade. Pure portable property to be held or sold at one's need.

Among this later category of Gold users/holders, by and large, are the oil producers who avail themselves of cheap Gold as compensation/persuasion for the supply of oil into cheap $ prices.

It is precisely here that we must return to my qualified comment, "Gold is unique with no *equivalent* replacements."

Yes, to the extend that some *users/consumers* need Gold and only Gold in the course of their craft, then only Gold will do. It has no substitutes, and those who can get it cheaply surely benefit by the arrangement.

On the other hand, to the extent that we are dealing with the latter category of users/holders of Gold as a tangible concluding form of their Wealth/Savings, it is FAIR for me to suggest the idea that substitutes in this role are available. That's not to say they'd be equal to or better than Gold itself, but for the purpose of this examination, we must consider them, generically, nevertheless.

To fully understand the situation, we must understand the purpose of Gold being used/held in its role as concluding Wealth. It's goal, primarily, is to have a tangible property that will not "go out of style" or suffer losses/depreciations as is possible for any imaginable manner of paper contract or national currency. Happy opportunities for capital gains over time on this good Property is merely subsidiary to the primary goal. Having secured tangible Wealth, at any such time as need dictates, it may be traded for it's market value in any other required goods and services -- either directly or via a mediating currency.

And there's the rub. Insofar as Gold is kept Kept *KEPT* artificially low, then the fact of the matter is the oil producers who are holding cheap Gold as compensation for giving up oil cheaply are really not being compensated at all.

Let me demonstrate with an example. If, for whatever reason, one of these oil producers had to dip into its savings one day to pay extraordinary expenses, they would find themselves in the same situation as a Gold producer -- supplying some of their Gold into a market and only getting the artificially low $ price!! There is no compensation for cheap oil to be found in the form of cheap Gold if IF *IF* (and ONLY if) the price of Gold is forever to be maintained artificially low into the period of time that the accumulated Gold savings might begin to be spent as oil flows/sales someday dry out and dwindle to a trickle. Again, if the expectation is for $Gold to be kept low forever, then the oil producers have been played as the ultimate suckers in a losing game.

That is not the case, although it might seem like it if you can't see past today's prices. There must/will be allowed in future days a wide-eyed market revaluation of Gold that shall provide through these patient Gold holdings a full functioning marketable compensation for all the long years of massive oil sold artificially cheap. FreeGold is the threshold across which this final reckoning will be delivered.

I can't exactly be one of the whiners about the slow and patient arrival of that FreeGold day because I'm not one of the parties who have been sacrificing REAL VALUE OIL for low prices and low-priced compensation with nothing but future knowledge for comfort. I've been in the happier position of trading my own dollars even across the board for all the things I want or need, including lots and lots low-priced Gold as my savings without having to sacrifice anything while I join the Giants in the waiting game. Hell, I've even got some nice capital gains on my Gold holdings in the interim. I'm already even/ahead, and that's BEFORE the rocket ride of revaluation to come. Cripes, I'm not worthy, just super fortunate to have a clue how it'll all unfold. That's the way to pick your pony, gentlemen.

If something doesn't add up, you're not looking deep enough. Cheap oil for cheap Gold? Sure! You've just gotta see the big picture and understand how it all plays out in the end.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
mikal
(07/29/2004; 00:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 123339)
Nocturnal passage
Solar aurora
Teases it's children tonight-
Golden rainbow prism.
Belgian
(07/29/2004; 00:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 123340)
OIL and GOLD.....
1/ "INTERVENTIONS" in the oil markets, is forcing the dollarprice of oil up.

2/ Gold wealth (through its pricing) is hidden from view for the sole purpose of "CHANGING-TRANSITIONING THE RESERVE CURRENCIES". ($ > �)

>>> ...The past and present "supply and demand" theories, could (cannot) never explain the price-behavior of oil AND Gold !!!

If, as BB is strongly suggesting, the ME oil-reserves are not enough to go on for another 50 years...WHY are there 140,000 troops overthere !?
Many perception builders are sending the same old "supply and demand" - *stories*, around the globe as to hide the "real actions" going on in the $-oilprice Interventions.
The Yukos saga is a "POLITICAL" affair and is now fully percepted as a dangerous act (intervention) from the oil-owners...pricers.

All this is happening for only ONE single reason : The cosmic expansion of dollar-debt has been consuming the wealth that all these dollarasset-holders have been accumulating.

As soon as oil will be "invoiced" in euro...THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A LOW $-POG anymore !

GOLD is (has been) purchased with (debt) dollars for future payment of huge dollar-debts !!!

And it is ONLY the euro-exchange-reserves of Gold, that will allow oil to be priced in euro.

Euroland, China and the ME...versus the US$ !!!

The globe's economic competition (battles) are solely based on the currencies' *exchange rates* !!! CBs "exchange reserves" (dollar-Gold) have the function of managing the currencies' exchange rates in the economic context !!!
We can all go to space now...we are all smart and productive...BUT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DIFFERENT CURRENCY SYSTEM !!!

DOLLAR DEBT VERSUS EURO GOLD !

Or,...invade and occupy Russia...and China...???
Belgian
(07/29/2004; 01:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 123341)
ARISTOTELES....ARISTO....ARI....
YOU HAVE BEEN *** EXPOSING *** THE NAME OF THE WHOLE GAME...!!! And this, in the simpliest of words...

BRAVO.... BRAVISSIMO.

The whole (�)concept behind the obscene goldpricing is so brilliant, that no goldphiles even dare to fantasize it in their wildiest dreams. All keep struggling with the squirming "dollar-conflict", within this concept.

But...this understandable attitude will change...as soon as it becomes clearer that paper, NEVER WAS THE CONCLUSION OF WEALTH !!! "Conclusion of Wealth", is an expression that, unfortunately, goes beyond the many...as it is a difficult notion to grasp in these modern times.

I'm going to conclude my happiness with some seashore holidays, not before having thanked you sincerely, once again. Good night, Aristo.

Belgian
(07/29/2004; 01:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 123342)
CNBC Europe...P.Manduka guest
LOUD and CLEAR confirmation : GOLD is being de-commoditized and evolving into Gold-Currency !!! Evidence keeps on piling up. FREEGOLD comes closer and closer !

Talks...talks (!!!) about Saudi troops for Iraq !?
Belgian
(07/29/2004; 05:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 123343)
The dollar-block....
...wishes to organize another round of relative dollar-strength. How can this be achieved :
1/ - Keep IRs low and don't refer the present IR-level to the rise in house-prices (currency depreciation)
2/ - Don't push the oilprices too low and keep the perception that the dollar is oil-backed. (PoO should already be $80/pb)
3/ - Last, but not the least...increase the amount of papergold contracts (printing presses) by shorting the $-Goldprice.

Euro-dollar rising trend could be broken with piercing the 1,195 support and zigzag decline of the � to 1,08.
�/$ exchange rate could possibly trade flat horizontally and consolidate the present exchange rate.

Always expect that the counter dollar-forces might provide proportionate headwind. In other words...the currencies' struggles do continue unabated...without changing the ongoing main trend of dollar decline (demise).

The trail to FreeGold is not a straight flat one.
misetich
(07/29/2004; 06:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 123344)
Oil Price Hits Record Over Yukos Troubles
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22393-2004Jul28.htmlSnip:

Tight supplies and fears of global terrorism have kept the cost of crude and gasoline hovering near all-time highs for months, and some analysts said prices at the pump may soon rise further because of yesterday's spike.
......................
The combination of unrest in Iraq and concerns about stability in other oil-producing countries has tacked on what traders and analysts described as a premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in oil prices. A year ago crude traded at just over $30 a barrel. "The geopolitical risks are much greater than they were a year ago -- whether it be the Yukos affair or Iraq or Saudi Arabia or Venezuela," said Gary Ross, chief executive officer of New York-based PIRA Energy Group, an international consulting firm. "Yukos is just one of many factors but obviously it's a factor which has immediate importance and which would lead to a loss of supply in a relatively tight market."
......................
**************
Misetich

The 2004 Oil Shock And Awe is still in its primary stage. As the US elections gets closer, it can be expected that anxieties, threats and actual disruptive actions will emerge, with OIL at center stage.

Geopolitical events, in Iraq, Middle East, China/Taiwan are intensifying rather than diminishing.

A $30 price in oil in Y2000 - 2001 resulted in the collapse of the US equity market and subsequent mild recession

Most recessions have been preceeded by a spark in oil prices.

A recession this time around would be more lethal as billions if not trillions of fiat has been thrown primarily by the US and Japan's printing presses to reinflate.

The US economy according to Sir Greenspan has hit a "soft patch"

It wouldn't surprise if Oil prices will rocket over $60 in the next few months, making Sir Greenspan's economic "soft patch" longer, wider and larger than forseen and the consequences and dangers for the global economy are increasing.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
misetich
(07/29/2004; 06:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 123345)
I.R.S. Says Americans' Income Shrank for 2 Consecutive Years
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/29/business/29tax.htmlSnip:

The total adjusted gross income on tax returns fell 5.1 percent, to just over $6 trillion in 2002, the most recent year for which data is available, from $6.35 trillion in 2000. Because of population growth, average incomes declined even more, by 5.7 percent.

Adjusted for inflation, the income of all Americans fell 9.2 percent from 2000 to 2002, according to the new I.R.S. data.
.......................
The new data also helps explain why personal income taxes, the government's most important source of revenue, are subject to much greater fluctuations than in the past
....................
From 2000 to 2002, individual income taxes fell 18.8 percent, more than three times the decline in adjusted gross incomes, the I.R.S.'s latest statistical reports show
.......................
Falling incomes, rather than tax cuts, appear to count for the greatest share of the decline in income taxes paid.
.....................
The primary factor was the Wall Street debacle, especially the collapse of many dot-coms and telecommunications companies, which eliminated trillions of dollars of paper wealth.
.....................
***************
Misetich

With the passage of time, better economic data, emerges providing the gory details of the Real Economy

As it is the Real Economy and not the Enroitis Fed speak that really matters-

Enroities economics is being applied to wall paper the realities of high unemployment and eroding tax base, and thus higher budget deficits.

The strong link between US economy and the stock equities, which increased throughout the 90's is at the root of the problem.

Asset Deflation is the Feds nightmare - and with the Real economy in far worse shape than believed the odds of something major occurring is high-

It is factors such as China's emergence which causes unprecedented problems as Real Price Inflation causes havoc

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(07/29/2004; 09:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 123346)
You don't have to stand idly by as inflationary trends plunder you down to the bones
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold coins
Why should YOU buy gold?

Because no one else will do it for you.

USAGOLD-Centennial can help.
1-800-869-5115 Extension 100

TownCrier
(07/29/2004; 10:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 123347)
Fed Open Market Operations
With fed funds trading 6bp over FOMC target, the Trading Desk for the Federal Reserve today intervened in the open market to add liquidity, issuing $12.25 billion in new cash as temporary reserves for the nation's banking system. Of this, $5 billion was provided through 14-day repurchase agreements, $8.25 billion through overnight repos.

R.
Goldless Heathen
(07/29/2004; 10:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 123348)
From Gary North's unusual email missive
< SNIP
On my recent travels, I was introduced to a man called
Stephen Belgin